Human activities are placing enormous pressures on the biosphere. The introduction of new chemicals and the increasing ambient levels of existing chemicals have resulted in atmospheric degradation. This paper reviews some of the adverse effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. Because the atmospheric effects of ozone depletion are fairly well characterized| quantitative risk estimates have been developed. However| because the atmospheric effects of global warming are less understood| public health problems that could be intensified by climate change are assessed qualitatively. The interactive effects of these two phenomena are also discussed.
3576,1991,2,4,APPROACHES TO THE CONSERVATION OF COASTAL WETLANDS IN THE WESTERN-HEMISPHERE,Coastal wetlands rank among the most productive and ecologically valuable natural ecosystems on Earth. Unfortunately| they are also some of the most disturbed. Because they are productive and can serve as transportation arteries| coastal wetlands have long attracted human settlement. More than half of the U.S. population currently lives within 80 km of its coasts| and one estimate places 70% of all humanity in the coastal zone. Human impacts to coastal wetlands include physical alteration of hydrological processes; the introduction of toxic materials| nutrients| heat| and exotic species; and the unsustainable harvest of native species. Between 1950 and 1970| coastal wetland losses in the U.S. averaged 8100 ha/year. In Central and South America| development pressures along the coastal zone rank among the most serious natural resource problems in the region. Here| we (1) briefly describe coastal wetland avifauna| (2) discuss the threat of global warming on coastal wetlands| (3) use several Western Hemisphere wetlands as site-specific examples of development pressures facing these habitats| and (4) provide synopses of non-governmental and governmental approaches to wetland conservation. Overall| we provide a socio-economic context for conservation of coastal wetlands in the wetlands in the Western Hemisphere. We suggest that efforts aimed at conserving sites of particular importance for their biological diversity should be pursued within a framework of wise use that addresses the broader issues of human population growth and economic development. 3561,1991,4,4,ATMOSPHERIC FATE OF CF2H2| CH3CF3| CHF2CF3| AND CH3CFCL2 - RATE COEFFICIENTS FOR REACTIONS WITH OH AND UV ABSORPTION CROSS-SECTIONS OF CH3CFCL2,The absolute rates coefficients for reactions of hydroxyl radical with four halocarbons (CH2F2(HFC-32)| CH3CF3(HFC-143a)| CF3CHF2(HFC-125)| and CH3CFCl2(HCFC-141b))| which are potential substitutes for CFCs| were measured by using the discharge flow-laser magnetic resonance and pulsed photolysis-laser-induced fluorescence techniques between 222 and 393 K. The UV absorption cross sections for HCFC-141b between 190 and 230 nm were also measured as functions of temperature. These kinetics and cross-section data are compared with results from previous studies. These data were incorporated into a one-dimensional photochemical transport model to estimate the tropospheric and atmospheric lifetimes needed to assess the ozone depletion potential and the global warming potential of these substitutes. The atmospheric lifetime of CH3CHCl2 (HCFC-141b) is approximately 50% longer than the previously accepted value. 3612,1991,2,2,ATMOSPHERIC METHANE - ITS CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING,Methane| a significant atmospheric trace-gas| controls numerous chemical processes and species in the troposphere and stratosphere. Its concentration in the Earth's atmosphere has been increasing at a rate of about 1% per year during the last century| and reached 1.72 ppmv in 1990. Methane is a strong greenhouse gas with significantly adverse environmental impacts. On a molecule-for-molecule basis| it is more than 20 times as potent a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide. The contribution of methane to global warming between 1880 and 1980 has been estimated to be about 15%| with an increasing share| approximately 18%| during the 1980s. In this paper methods for estimating the change in atmospheric concentration of methane| and for predicting its global-warming effect| are described. Influences of some of the suggested emission-control policies are also discussed. Methane concentration in the atmosphere might reach a value of more than 4 ppmv by the end of the next century with no control policies implemented. This could produce an unavoidable long-term mean rise in the surface temperature of the Earth of more than 0.5-degrees-C. 2162,1991,4,4,ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTANTS AND ECTOMYCORRHIZAE - MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS,Changes in research emphasis from pollution towards the effects of climate change have resulted from shifts in political and public interests. Information gained from research on the effects of pollutants as a perturbation on mycorrhizae and mycorrhizae-mediated processes may be an appropriate starting point from which to launch into climate change studies. However| the effects of pollution on mycorrhizae are not clear cut as there are many conflicting results. The methods used in experiments| levels of pollutants used and relationships between studies on seedling trees to the mature forest do not suggest unifying models of pollution effects. Some areas of work still lacking in the pollution field are highlighted. These include well replicated experiments at currently ambient pollutant levels| and areas for potential development in the global climate change arena| e.g. the interaction between C supply and nutrient uptake. 2145,1991,3,4,BENEFIT-COST IMPLICATIONS OF ACID-RAIN CONTROLS - AN EVALUATION OF THE NAPAP INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT,Concluding ten years of study| the U.S. National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) recently issued its integrated assessment report designed to provide guidance to policy makers on the sources and effects of acid deposition| and the costs and benefits of alternative control measures. This paper focuses on an evaluation of the benefit-cost implications of acid rain controls as revealed by two of the five major questions addressed in the NAPAP assessment framework. While the NAPAP effort made significant scientific contributions to the study of acid deposition| key gaps are found in the assessment of benefits and costs most relevant to policy decisions. Lessons learned from NAPAP may be helpful in avoiding similar problems in assessing emerging environmental issues such as global climate change. 2135,1991,2,2,BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY AND NEPTUNE REALM,The diverse biological life in both terrestrial and marine environments offers mankind many practical and potential resources. These natural pools of wealth are under continuous pressure from various humanly induced alterations. Areas of current research are attempting to challenge the assorted problems| but many of the issues have yet to be addressed fully. Global climate change and soaring extinction rates appear to be the consequence of anthropogenic effects. Important preventive action is needed to restrict the forcing mechanisms for climate change being created by altered atmospheric composition. 2130,1991,2,2,BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY| ECOLOGY| AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Unlike classical public health issues and many environmental issues| their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat they may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years| the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence| location| and composition of ecosystems worldwide. At the same time| awareness of the magnitude of current and impending losses of the world's biological diversity has increased. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years| and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. We are just beginning to grasp the meaning of this loss in terms of opportunity costs to human society and the less quantifiable losses associated with simplification of natural ecosystems. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity| man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion| on a global scale| and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results. 2154,1991,4,4,BIOLOGICAL RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE - AN AGENDA FOR RESEARCH,Our knowledge of the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems on a global scale is not developed to a sufficient degree to understand - much less predict - the consequences of climate change either on the systems themselves or on subsequent atmospheric interactions. In many regards we have lagged behind the atmospheric scientists| and to a certain degree the oceanographers| in establishing a global understanding of the dynamics of our respective systems. This is due in part to the inherently greater complexity of biotic systems| but also to the lack of appropriate tools to measure regional biotic processes. These tools are now becoming available and with them a better understanding of terrestrial and atmospheric interactions. Even as these capabilities become a reality we must be realistic in recognizing that we have so far to go along the road to understanding that useful predictive capacity may elude us for a long time to come. What we now need to do is act on the recommendations that have been emerging over the past few years and develop a global program to document more precisely the distribution| structure| and quantity of the earth's biotic systems| their principal functional properties| and - most difficult of all - their changing nature. In order to do this we will have to: (1) perfect some of the emerging new tools for assessing these properties| (2) fill some of the gaps in our knowledge about the relevant processes| and (3) establish an international network of long-term observations and large-scale ecosystem manipulations. We have been aware of these needs and shortcomings for some time and we must move from plans to concerted international action. 3626,1991,3,4,BIOTECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES IN BIOMASS ENERGY AND CHEMICAL PRODUCTION - IMPACTS ON WILDLIFE AND HABITAT,One promising application of biotechnology is in making the production of energy and chemical products from plants ("biomass") practical. Applications include new markets for crops and reduction of wastes by using field residues or "wastelands" as feedstocks in biomass energy production. In addition| engineered crops could synthesize complex compounds. However| conversion to widespread use of biomass could have undersirable impacts. For example| changes in cropping practices may reduce wildlife populations or disrupt food chains. Other negative impacts of an environmentally insensitive development might include increased release of CO2 (worsening global warming)| and production of wastes| either water| chemical or biological| that present disposal problems. Biotechnology applied to biomass and chemical production has the potential for aiding economic development while greatly improving environmental quality. Environmental concerns are expressed in this paper| in the belief that consideration of potential problems at the inception of a technology increases the likelihood that environmentally sound courses will be pursued. 3555,1991,2,3,BOREAL FOREST SENSITIVITY TO GLOBAL WARMING - IMPLICATIONS FOR FOREST MANAGEMENT IN WESTERN INTERIOR CANADA,Unmitigated global warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect could have significant impacts on the boreal forest in interior western Canada. Increases in annual temperature of 3 to 7-degrees-C are projected for Alberta under a 2 x CO2 scenario by 2030-2050 A.D. Such an unprecedented rate of change has many short- and long-term implications for forest management and for industries. As the boreal forest is highly sensitive to climatic changes| foresters need to develop a set of safe strategies to minimize the negative impacts and maximize the benefits of these changes. 2143,1991,3,2,BUYING ENVIRONMENTAL INSURANCE - PROSPECTS FOR TRADING OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-PROTECTION SERVICES,In order to alleviate the threat of global climate change| coordinated international action is needed. This cooperation should include multilateral agreements and new economic initiatives to help implement measures that will slow the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere due to tropical deforestation and fossil-fuel use. An international market in environmental services can help to safeguard the Earth's climate and foster economic development through a North-South transfer of financial resources. We suggest international carbon-emission offsets (ICEOs) as a means by which international markets| under a policy umbrella such as a multilateral climate-protection treaty| could trade carbon-saving services. Such a market would provide a currency for rewarding actions that reduce global carbon emissions| allowing carbon emitters to seek the least expensive ways to reduce emissions. This currency would transfer cash and/or debt relief from industrialized nations to developing nations| allowing the developing nations to profit from the use of clean energy technologies and the protection| rather than depletion| of tropical forests. 3567,1991,3,3,BUYING GREENHOUSE INSURANCE,There have been numerous proposals for immediate cutbacks in CO2 emissions. Proponents argue that sizable reductions are necessary as a hedge against unacceptably rapid changes in climate. This paper provides a decision tree analysis of the problem. We examine how the optimal hedging strategy might vary with: a) the damage potential associated with the continued buildup of greenhouse gases; b) the accuracy and timing of climate research; and| c) the prospects for new supply and conservation technologies. The analysis is from the perspective of a single country| the USA. Optimal hedging strategies need to be explored on a region-by-region basis. 3621,1991,2,3,CHANGES IN NUMBER OF DAYS EXCEEDING CERTAIN VALUES OF MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES,In large cities of Japan such as Tokyo| Osaka| Kyoto and others| the number of cold winter days and hot summer nights have considerably changed since the 1950s. This paper gives: (1) data showing observed changes of urban warming in these cities; (2) discussion concerning the method and the results of estimates on number of days exceeding or not reaching certain values of maximum and minimum temperatures from monthly mean temperatures; and (3) probable changes in these numbers in selected large cities of Japan in connection with predicted global warming due to an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases. 3569,1991,2,4,CHLOROPHYLL-A DISTRIBUTION IN THE SOUTHERN BENGUELA| POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON PHYTOPLANKTON AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR PELAGIC FISH,A summary is given of available chlorophyll data and statistical relationships between chlorophyll and primary production off the south and west coast of South Africa. An attempt is made to quantify the extent of the 'productive' coastal area and to give an idea of its variation and the implications of this at higher trophic levels. We then speculate on the implications of regional global warming in this regard. Proposals for monitoring chlorophyll distributions are also discussed. 3616,1991,2,4,CLIMATE CHANGE AND ISOPRENE EMISSIONS FROM VEGETATION,A global model was developed for estimating spatial and temporal patterns in the emission of isoprene from vegetation under the current climate. Results were then used to evaluate potential emissions under doubled-CO2 climate scenarios. Current emissions were estimated on the basis of vegetation type| foliar biomass (derived from the satellite-generated Global Vegetation index)| and global databases for air temperature and photoperiod. The model had a monthly time step and the spatial resolution was 0.5 degrees latitude and longitude. Emissions under patterns of precipitation and temperature projected for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 were estimated based on predicted changes in the areal extent of different vegetation types| each having a specific rate of annual isoprene emissions. The global total for current emissions was 285 Tg. The calculated isoprene emissions under a doubled-CO2 climate were about 25% higher than current emissions due mainly to the expansion of tropical humid forests which had the highest annual emission rates. An increase in isoprene emissions would be likely to increase atmospheric concentrations of ozone and methane| which are important greenhouse gases| and thus act as a positive feedback to global warming. Detailed treatment of this question| however| will require incorporation of these emission surfaces into global atmospheric chemistry models. 3525,1991,3,2,CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS POLARIZE,After three sessions of the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change| global warming negotiations appear to have polarized around two key issues. Countries are divided over how strictly the treaty should control greenhouse gas emissions and how to share the hardship of emission controls in the most fair and equitable manner. The United States' "go slow" position has frustrated European efforts to create a convention with binding targets and timetables for reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs). Developing nations fear that the United States' refusal to control CO2 emissions signals a lack of commitment toward halting global warming and foreshadows future equity conflicts over financial and technical assistance to help them adopt "climate friendly" development paths. Nevertheless| early negotiating positions can be deceptive. The existence of many significant| low cost energy reforms indicates the existence of untapped bargaining space for overcoming these immediate deadlocks. However| these "no regrets" energy reforms are only the easy| first steps toward arresting climate disruption. Powerful and deeply entrenched social forces will resist an increasingly desperate need to dramatically reduce the global combustion of fossil fuels.
2140,1991,3,4,CLIMATE CHANGE PERCEPTIONS AND ENERGY-USE DECISIONS IN NORTHERN SWEDEN,Lay perceptions of global climate change were examined in the Swedish town of Umea. Interviews revealed that some residents believed temperatures were becoming warmer| but few perceived linkages between the threat of global climate change and energy use. The desire to reduce household expenditure motivated conservation measures more than concerns about environmental issues. The greenhouse effect was confused with the issue of stratospheric ozone depletion and reductions in the use of aerosol cans were judged to be appropriate policy responses to the threat of greenhouse warming. 3619,1991,2,4,CLIMATE| FORESTS| AND FIRE - A NORTH-AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE,The earth's climate may currently be undergoing a warming in response to the well documented accumulation of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Changes in forestland areas and biomass are playing a role in the accumulation. This paper reviews and offers some observations on estimates of the role of forests in the carbon cycle. The temperate forests are roughly in carbon balance| with biomass growth equaling or exceeding losses. The tropical forests| by contrast| are a carbon source with forest area declining due primarily to land-use changes. A number of carbon-sequestering sources| such as wood construction and landfills| may be sequestering more carbon than is commonly assumed. Climate change can also affect forests. A number of mechanisms that influence forest growth and composition are discussed. In the absence of increased precipitation and/or a CO2 "fertilization" effect| warming is likely to diminish forest area and biomass. Forest burning is part of the natural cycle. During a burn| carbon is released through the post-burning period and typically involves carbon sequestering as the result of regeneration and vigorous growth. In an undisturbed natural system| a steady-state level of global forest biomass would be reached. Anthropogenic factors can upset the natural steady state. In a period of rapid climate transition| such as might accompany a global warming| forests are likely to lose vigor and thus be particularly susceptible to wildfire. 3603,1991,4,2,CLIMATOLOGY AND SOCIETY,The role of climate as a critical factor affecting the nature of the physical environment has been a traditional concern of geographers. Recently these concerns have been replaced by more urgent issues - atmospheric pollution| acid rain| global warming and ozone depletion. Decisions by the global society on how and at what level of well being human life should be organised are radically changing the gaseous character of the Earth's atmosphere. As a result| marked global warming will occur| and will have profound effects on societies across the world| some time during the next century. The ways in which the scientific study of climate - the field of climatology - may interact with society are examined| rather than considering the impact of climate itself on society. The data available are many and varied| and in their use a broad distinction can be drawn between the statistical and the physical approaches. Rather than a long list of the many fields of study that may be relevant| a limited number of types of such studies is presented. However| even with our improved understanding of climatology| the actual and probable future impacts of the world's climates on society are still to be unravelled. 3523,1991,3,3,CO-2 EMISSIONS REDUCTION BY PRICE DEREGULATION AND FOSSIL-FUEL TAXATION - A CASE-STUDY OF INDONESIA,As environmental issues| and the issue of global warming in particular| rise to the top of the international agenda| developing nations are faced with a major question: how to confront these environmental problems and simultaneously address a number of more pressing developmental imperatives? This paper tries to answer that question on a limited scale using Indonesia as a case study. The study indicates that by deregulating energy prices and imposing different levels of taxation on fossil fuels| Indonesia could reduce its CO2 emissions without considerably suppressing the growth of its economy. In the long run| however| these policies cannot cope with the inevitable rise in coal-use in Indonesia| due to constraints on domestic natural gas and oil resources. Limiting the growth of coal consumption in the future will require direct technological intervention in the supply and demand of energy and a shift in current energy export and import policies. 3529,1991,3,2,COAL-BED METHANE IN THE UK,British Coal measure their methane emissions at 0.8 +/- 0.2 million tonnes from UK coal mining in 1987. However| this figure cannot be verified until British Coal releases relevant data. Recently| the US Environmental Protection Agency has endorsed the use of an emission equation as a means of calculating methane emissions from coal mining. Methane emissions from coal mining rise to 1.19 - 2.21 Mt when this equation is applied to the UK. Both these estimates represent a lost resource and a major global warming effect due to methane's potency as a greenhouse gas. 2146,1991,4,5,COMPARISONS OF OBSERVED NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE RECORDS,Comparisons are made between three climatic data sets consisting of Northern Hemispheric annual surface air temperature departures over the past 100 years. It is shown that despite the large values of linear cross-correlation between the data records| the longterm trends are significantly different according to the bootstrapping procedure. The confidence of relying on any particular data set for assessing global climate change statistics is thus questioned. 3629,1991,3,4,COST AND PERFORMANCE OF CO2 STORAGE IN FORESTRY PROJECTS,In order to include forestry projects in a possible CO2 emission reduction regime| and to compare the costs of individual projects or national programs| it is necessary to determine the rate of equivalency between carbon in fossil fuel emissions and carbon stored in different types of forestry projects. This paper presents a comprehensive and consistent methodology to account for the costs and carbon flows of different categories of forestry projects and describes the application of the methodology to a set of projects in Central America. Several estimates have been made to date of the overall potential for carbon storage through global reforestation and the costs of such efforts| based on global macroeconomic estimates and extrapolations from current forest-sector experience. However| there has yet to be a consistent analysis of the magnitude and cost of carbon savings by a "bottom-up" approach to sustainable forestry development This methodology is applied to a set of projects proposed in Costa Rica and other Central American countries under the Tropical Forest Action Plan| to estimate a sample set of national CO2 reduction cost curves. The costs of carbon savings in the forestry projects studied in Central America mostly fall between $5 and $13 ton-C1| depending on the type of project| the climate| and the opportunity cost of land. These projects also promise socio-economic benefits at the local level| provided they are adequately endowed with funding| training and institutional support. The total amount of CO2 storage potential is significant| about 100 million tons per country| but not enough to suggest that forestry can offset more than a few percent of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use. 3605,1991,4,4,COULD REDUCING FOSSIL-FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING,WHEN fossil fuel is burned| both carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide are added to the atmosphere. The former should cause warming of the lower atmosphere by enhancing the greenhouse effect| whereas the latter| by producing sulphate aerosols| may cause a cooling effect. The possibility that these two processes could offset each other was suggested many years ago (see| for example| ref. 1)| but during most of the intervening period| attention has focused on the greenhouse effect. Interest in tropospheric aerosols has| however| recently been rekindled by the realization that they may influence climate| not only through clear-sky radiative effects 2-5| but also by modifying cloud albedo 6-8. Here I examine the sensitivity of the climate system to simultaneous changes in SO2 and CO2 emissions| as might occur if controls were imposed on fossil-fuel use. Over the next 10-30 years| it is conceivable that the increased radiative forcing due to SO2 concentration changes could more than offset reductions in radiative forcing due to reduced CO2 emissions. 2167,1991,3,4,COUNTERMEASURES FOR MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT CHANGES,Increased concern over the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer has resulted in support for the Global Change Research Program. Research to understand Earth system processes is critical| but it falls short of providing ways of mitigating the effects of change. Options and alternatives need to be developed. Space-based concepts for environmental countermeasures should be considered in addition to Earth-based actions. Definition| analysis| demonstration and preparation of mitigation technology provide a basis for policy response if global change consequences are severe. 2148,1991,4,4,CRYOSPHERIC PRODUCTS FROM THE DMSP-SSM .1. STATUS AND RESEARCH APPLICATIONS,The DMSP Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) was launched on 19 June 1987. This first operational passive microwave radiometer operates at four wavelengths (0.35-1.55 cm) with vertical and horizontal polarization for three of the channels. The orbit provides global coverage except for a small polar gap and 12 hour repeat coverage in high latitudes. A Cryospheric Data Management System (CDMS) for snow and ice products developed by the NASA Ocean Data System (NODS) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for NASA Polar Oceans Programs extracts polar SSM/I data and makes them available in suitable formats for scientific users. The design of the CDMS at NSIDC has evolved since the initial planning in 1984 to one relying on CD-ROM technology for data distribution. The SSM/I data| and the earlier 7-year SMMR data (re-binned to the SSM/I grid)| are available as brightness temperatures averaged daily for each channel/polarization in a polar stereographic 25 km grid for both polar regions and as gridded 3-day average total sea ice concentrations and multiyear ice fractions based on the NASA Team algorithm. The availability of a passive microwave record of sea ice parameters since 1978 in a directly comparable format greatly facilitates their research use. The polar regions are of considerable importance in studies of global climate change in view of snow and ice/albedo feedback processes that contribute to the high latitude amplification of such changes. Related climate-cryosphere research includes studies to validate the algorithm employed to prepare the ice products| on ice/climate processes| and on temporal trends in sea ice. 3570,1991,4,4,DETECTION OF GLOBAL WARMING THROUGH SPATIAL TEMPERATURE-VARIATIONS BELOW THE EARTH SURFACE,The propagation of temperature disturbances down the earth is analyzed in various degrees of mathematical complexity. Exact analytical solutions as they are expected under conditions of global warming trends are given| with the most general case reduced to the solution of an integral equation. The solution of this equation permits to obtain the past trend in the surface temperature by a spatial measurement of the temperature below the earth surface at a fixed time. Analysis of the results may be the best indicator to resolve the controversy whether global warming is real. 3582,1991,4,4,DETERMINANTS OF PLANT-DISTRIBUTION - EVIDENCE FROM PINE INVASIONS,The question of which factors limit the occurrence of a plant species to a particular site is addressed by considering 53 cases in which the distribution of pines (Pinus species; Pinaceae) has changed in the last century. We consider expansions of pines in and adjacent to their natural ranges in the Northern Hemisphere and the spread from sites of introduction in the Southern Hemisphere well outside the contemporary range of pines. We first consider a neutral hypothesis (with respect to climate or biological interactions as determinants of invasion): invasion simply requires that a species is present in sufficient numbers| with sufficient propagules over sufficient time to invade. We then explore the relative importance of climatic changes. disturbance| competition (including competition between seedlings and herbaceous plants during early establishment)| herbivory| pathogens| and other agents that might influence pine membership in communities. Determinants of susceptibility to invasion often interact in a complex fashion. Environmental stresses created by moisture and temperature appear to exercise primary control on invasibility at xeric and high-elevation sites| respectively| but play a smaller role at intermediate locations. At these sites| range limits are determined principally by interactions between pine seedlings and the resident biota in adjacent communities. This suggests that the effects of predicted global warming on the distribution of pines are unlikely to be simple functions of temperature or precipitation. except at climatic extremes. Pine invasions are most prevalent where there is limited competition in the regeneration niche and occur more easily in habitats where the dominant growth form is most different from that of pines| namely| in grasslands. The disturbance regime in the receiving habitat is important and interacts directly and indirectly with the "inherent" susceptibility to invasion. Severe disturbances may initiate pine invasions at any latitude| but are essential for reducing the cover of vigorous plant growth (and hence competition in the regeneration niche) in tropical and near-tropical regions. Contemporary practices such as deforestation and increased grazing pressure and those practices leading to accelerated erosion| modified fire regimes| and climate amelioration essentially duplicate ice-age stresses and disturbances that shaped plant communities in the Holocene. The fundamental role of biotic factors (either direct or indirect) in regulating the distribution of pines is discussed with reference to aspects of land husbandry including the management of biological invasions. 3598,1991,5,4,DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY EOCENE WARM CLIMATES| AS INFERRED FROM CLAY MINERAL VARIATIONS IN OCEANIC SEDIMENTS,Late Paleocene to middle Eocene clay mineral associations have been considered at fifteen locations from the Atlantic Ocean and the adjacent sector of the Southern Ocean| and compared to the results of previous investigations. Globally warm climates and alternating wet and arid seasons are deduced from the widespread abundance of pedogenic smectite at every location. Near the Paleocene-Eocene boundary| enhanced humidity at high latitudes and in continental hinterlands is indicated by more abundant kaolinite| while in coastal areas from low and middle latitudes increased aridity resulted in more abundant palygorskite (and/or sepiolite). Concomitant increases of kaolinite and fibrous clays are correlated with lower delta-O-18 of benthic and planktonic foraminifers in most oceanic areas| indicating that warmer conditions were associated with enhanced evaporation at low to middle latitudes| and increased precipitation at high latitudes. This is consistent with an improvement of meridional transfers of energy| which probably contributed to the compensation of the equator to pole thermal disequilibrium increased by the global warming. During the middle Eocene| both kaolinite and palygorskite contents decreased at most southern locations| coeval with higher delta-O-18. Inferred cooling and reduced thermal exchanges especially characterized the southern high latitudes| and possibly resulted from plate tectonic evolution. 3604,1991,2,4,DROUGHT - OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPACT MITIGATION,Drought is an ancient natural hazard that has probably killed more people than any other. It is difficult to mark the start and end of drought because the moisture deficit develops slowly over weeks| months| or years. Atmospheric scientists can neither forecast nor control drought. Drought mitigation must focus on reducing the underlying physical and social vulnerability. Short-term adjustments do not yield a lasting adaptation to drought. Some argue that repetitive food aid may worsen long-term food-production problems and land degradation by deferring more fundamental adjustments. Decisionmakers need better information and a broader range of adjustment options in order to reduce drought vulnerability. A linking of global warming/climate change studies with drought studies can yield insights into how societies might deal with climate change and help define the potential for future drought. (Ed.) 3625,1991,3,3,EFFECT OF ENCAPSULATED CALCIUM CARBIDE ON DINITROGEN| NITROUS-OXIDE| METHANE| AND CARBON-DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM FLOODED RICE,The efficiency of N use in flooded rice is usually low| chiefly due to gaseous losses. Emission of CH4| a gas implicated in global warming| can also be substantial in flooded rice. In a greenhouse study| the nitrification inhibitor encapsulated calcium carbide (a slow-release source of acetylene) was added with 75| 150| and 225 mg of 75 atom % N-15 urea-N to flooded pots containing 18-day-old rice (Oryza sativa L.) plants. Urea treatments without calcium carbide were included as controls. After the application of encapsulated calcium carbide| 3.6-mu-g N2| 12.4-mu-g N2O-N| and 3.6 mg CH4 were emitted per pot in 30 days. Without calcium carbide| 3.0 mg N2| 22.8-mu-g N2O-N| and 39.0 mg CH4 per pot were emitted during the same period. The rate of N added had a positive effect on N2 and N2O emissions| but the effect on CH4 emissions varied with time. Carbon dioxide emissions were lower with encapsulated calcium carbide than without. The use of encapsulated calcium carbide appears effective in eliminating N2 losses| and in minimizing emissions of the "greenhouse gases" N2O and CH4 in flooded rice. 3558,1991,2,4,EFFECTS OF CLIMATE ON REPRODUCTION IN THE EUROPEAN WILD RABBIT (ORYCTOLAGUS-CUNICULUS),Reproduction in a population of European wild rabbits occupying parkland habitat in East Anglia showed an annual seasonality in terms of numbers of emergent young| male testes size and an index of female oestrous status. Weather conditions showed marked variation over the four-year study period with significantly higher minimum ground temperatures and hours of daily sunshine| and less snowfall recorded during the second two years. Parallel shifts in reproductive seasonality were found with male testes size peaking in January and February as opposed to May and April| first female oestrus recorded one month earlier (January compared to February)| and young emerging over an average of 5.5 instead of 4.5 months each year and their first appearance above ground advanced by two months from April to February. Mean annual productivity increased from 7.2 and 6.1 emergent young per female| to 10.1 and 9.1 over the four years| while the number of adults present in the population at the start of the breeding season increased from 22 to 45| with females always outnumbering males. The usefulness is demonstrated of a non-invasive index of vulva appearance| and morphometric measures of testes to determine female oestrous status and estimates of male testicular weight in wild populations. The reported changes in reproduction are probably mediated through the influence of climatic variables on the quality or quantity of food available to the rabbits. These data demonstrate the possible effects of predicted global warming on productivity in the rabbit and highlight the major influence of climate on reproductive seasonality in this important pest species. 3581,1991,3,4,ENERGY ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY-SOURCES,This paper examines the application of energy analysis to the assessment of renewable energy sources. The basic features| terms| conventions and methods of energy analysis which were established during the 1970s are introduced and the value of energy analysis as a means of evaluating new energy technologies is explained in relation to current concern about resource depletion and global warming. Additionally| the way in which energy analysis can complement conventional economic evaluation is discussed. An extensive summary of results from previous energy analysis studies of renewable energy sources is presented and essential improvements in energy analysis databases to enable progress with new studies are described. 3516,1991,3,4,ENERGY AND TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION TOWARDS SYMBIOTIC USE OF NUCLEAR-ENERGY AND FOSSIL-FUELS,The potential of CO2 emission reduction is analyzed by the MARKAL model for the Japanese energy system in the time horizon 1985 approximately 2030| taking into account such reduction measures as energy conservation| fuel switching| and technology substitution. Among them| nuclear energy utilization is found to have a large CO2 reduction potential| i.e. from 10% reduction of the total emission in 1990 to the levels of 16%| 21% and 42% in years 2000| 2010 and 2030| respectively| through electric power generation and process heat application. 2141,1991,3,4,ENERGY EFFICIENCY - A NO REGRETS RESPONSE TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR WASHINGTON-STATE,Future climate changes pose a difficult challenge for public policymaking| in part due to uncertainty of predictions| especially on the scale of countries or regions. Nevertheless| it is possible to estimate the costs and potential benefits of attempting to reduce climate change. The authors| from the Washington State Energy Office| review international| national| and state energy strategies. They emphasize that we will "not regret" policies designed to improve energy-use efficiency| no matter how unknown the future| because of resultant cost savings| energy savings| and less reliance on fossil fuels-hence the reduction of the major forces of climate change. 3572,1991,3,3,ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ENERGY FACILITIES - FUEL-CELL TECHNOLOGY COMPARED WITH COAL AND CONVENTIONAL GAS TECHNOLOGY,We compare the environmental side effects of power plants based on fuel cell technology with the side effects of conventional electric power plants based on coal and natural gas. The environmental impact of a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) plant is very much less than that of a coal-fired plant (a factor of 1/300 for air pollution and a factor of 1/5 for water pollution). Compared with a conventional gas plant| impact is reduced by between 50 and 98%. Damage to cultural monuments and buildings is negligible from a fuel cell plant. Socioeconomic negative impacts are reduced by about 30% relative to conventional gas plants (aesthetics and noise) whereas employment is unaltered. Impact on health and safety is greatly reduced compared with that from coal-fired plants and is about 70% of that from conventional gas plants. Preliminary results suggest that society's willingness to pay (WTP) for clean air| and thereby better health| matches the cost of installing emission-reducing equipment on conventional power plants. There is probably an additional WTP for other benefits (e.g.| decreased risk of global warming). Thus| the utility of very small emissions| lower CO2 discharges| and other benefits from SOFC generators may compensate for the increased cost incurred in producing electricity by SOFC generators. 3546,1991,2,3,ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTIVITY INDEXES AND PRODUCTIVITY FOR OPUNTIA-FICUS-INDICA UNDER CURRENT AND ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC CO2 LEVELS,The productivity of the prickly-pear cactus Opuntia ficus-indica| which is cultivated worldwide for its fruits and stem segments| was predicted based on the responses of its net CO2 uptake to soil water status| air temperature and photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD). Each of these environmental factors was represented by an index with a maximum value of unity when that factor was not limiting net CO2 uptake over a 24-h period. The water index| the temperature index| and the PPFD index were determined for 87 sites in the contiguous United States using data from 189 weather stations and for 148 sites worldwide using data from 1464 weather stations. The product of these three indices| the environmental productivity index (EPI)| was used to predict the productivity of O. ficus-indica under current climatic conditions and under those accompanying a possible increase in the atmospheric CO2 level to 650-mu-mol mol-1. Sites with temperatures always above -10-degrees-C and hence suitable for prickly-pear cultivation numbered 37 in the United States and 110 worldwide; such sites increased by 43 and 5%| respectively| for the global warming accompanying the elevated CO2. Productivity of O. ficus-indica was at least 15 tonnes dry weight hectare-1 year-1| comparable to that of many agronomic crops| for 20 sites with temperatures always above -10-degrees-C in the contiguous United States and for 12 such sites worldwide under current climatic conditions; such sites increased by 85 and 117%| respectively| under the elevated CO2 condition| mainly because of direct effects of the atmospheric CO2 level on net CO2 uptake. In summary| simulations based on EPI indicate that O. ficus-indica may presently be advantageously cultivated over a substantial fraction of the earth's surface| such regions increasing markedly with a future doubling in atmospheric CO2 levels. 2166,1991,5,4,EVOLVING PLIOCENE PLEISTOCENE CLIMATE - A NORTH PACIFIC PERSPECTIVE,Siliceous microfauna in sediments from North Pacific Deep Sea Drilling Project sites record the response of the regional surface and near-surface waters to global climate change over the past 3.0 Ma. During the Late Pliocene (2.7-3.0 Ma)| the northern subtropical and subpolar Pacific experienced warmer climate conditions than those of today. The first predominant polar assemblage maximum occurs in the North Pacific at approximately 2.45 Ma signifying this region's response to the initiation of significant northern hemisphere glaciation. North Pacific faunal data show that Late Pliocene (1.8-2.5 Ma) glacial maxima were only about half to two-thirds as severe as those which occurred during the Late Pleistocene. Low faunal assemblage variability during a 200 ka interval in the latest Pliocene (1.6-1.82 Ma) in the North Pacific indicates minimal variations in the surface water properties and climate conditions most like those which existed just prior to 2.5 Ma. A distinct change in faunal assemblage registered in sediments from Site 580 between 1.2 and 1.3 Ma marks the first cooling in the North Pacific comparable in intensity to those of the Late Pleistocene. Since approximately 1.26 Ma| high amplitude| high frequency variations in the North Pacific polar assemblage have continued to occur| providing further evidence that the interglacial/glacial extremes that characterize the Late Pleistocene have persisted since this time. The frequency distribution of North Pacific winter sea-surface temperature time series for the Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene includes major concentrations of variance (power) centered at a frequency corresponding to a 41 ka period| with variance dominance of the temperature time series for the last 800 ka shifting to lower frequencies (approximately 110 ka period). 3542,1991,2,4,FIRE AND DROUGHT EXPERIMENTS IN NORTHERN WETLANDS - A CLIMATE CHANGE ANALOG,Drought and fire| which may increase in frequency and severity because of global warming| were simulated in mid-boreal wetlands by transplanting soil blocks upslope to a lower water table and by prescribed burns. In the 2 years after treatments were applied to seasonally flooded vegetation zones in the Peace-Athabasca Delta| Alberta| the drought treatment did not significantly change stem density and height of the dominant hygrophytes Calamagrostis canadensis and Carex atherodes. Dicotyledonous species' density and richness increased 3- to 36-fold on soil blocks moved upslope to the driest vegetation zone relative to unmoved soil blocks. The percent cover of native dicotyledonous species was unaffected but that of xerophytic Eurasian species| Sonchus arvensis and Cirsium arvense| increased 5- to 13-fold after drought treatment. Fire| particularly the deepest burn| reduced graminoid density and height up to 90%. Dicotyledon density| but not richness| was generally higher after fire. Plant cover was unaffected by fire but Eurasian species' cover was still 3- to 15-fold greater than that of native species. Seasonally flooded vegetation zones will likely be shifted from flood-driven dynamics with cool and moist environmental conditions towards drought- and fire-driven dynamics with warmer and drier conditions. It is hypothesized that| under these climate change conditions| Eurasian species might dominate early successional communities in mid-boreal wetlands. 2159,1991,2,4,FISH AND FISHERIES ECOLOGY,My paper on fish and fisheries ecology is offered to demonstrate a rich blending of applied and fundamental ecology| achieved by the intersections among fishery science| ichthyology| and ecology. The example| while specific| parallels practices and opportunities available in other areas of applied ecology. The emergence of fish and fisheries ecology as a discipline is evidenced by such recent textbooks as Fisheries ecology by Pitcher and Hart (1982) and Ecology of teleost fishes by Wootton (1990). The ecology relevant to fish and fisheries includes not only marine and freshwater ecology|oceanography| and limnology| but also terrestrial study. Early work in fish and fisheries ecology came from Stephen A. Forbes > 100 yr ago in his books On some interactions of organisms (Forbes 1880) and The lake as a microcosm (Forbes 1887). These constitute one of the earliest conceptualizations of an ecosystem. By 1932 E. S. Russell concluded that fishery research was a study in marine ecology. I give examples of applications from six different categories of ecology. (1) Physiological ecology: The F. E. J. Fry school of fish physiology developed the concepts of temperature as a lethal|controlling and directive factor. More than 40 yr later| this knowledge is being combined with G. E. Hutchinson's concept of an n-dimensional niche to analyze potential influences of global climate warming on fishes. (2) Behavioral ecology: A. D. Hasler and students formulated and tested the hypothesis of olfactory imprinting as the mechanism by which Pacific salmon "home" to their natal spawning streams. Applications to reestablish salmon runs are as important to Hasler as the original scientific discovery; this is evident in his proposed "Salmon for Peace"for the river bounding USSR and China. (3) Population ecology: The realization that reproductive success of fishes depends more on larval mortality than on egg production emerged from the ideas of J. Hjort (1914). To this day inconsistencies between recruitment and reproductive stock size impart uncertainty into fishery management| while the search for explanatory mechanisms attracts the curious mind. (4) Community ecology: Species interactions are the grist of community ecology; predation and fishing are a natural for comparative study and application. Also| consumption by fish can control the dynamics of planktonic and benthic animal/plant communities; thus| apparent water quality of lakes depends on the consumer community as well as on nutrient inputs. (5) Ecosystem ecology: D.S. Rawson grouped external| abiotic influences on lakes into climatic| edaphic| and morphometric factors. The morphoedaphic index (Ryder 1965) predicts fish yields from this base| providing fish managers with a useful approximation and ecologists with a conceptual base for synthesis of production processes. (6) Landscape ecology: Regional ecology often incorporates land-water boundaries into the way ecological systems work. Application of island biogeography to lakes| as islands| has allowed predictions of fish assemblages for use by managers. Also| the extent and connectedness of lake and ocean "landscapes" offer insight into contrasts between marine and freshwater fishery research and management. In conclusion| the ecotone between academic and applied ecology seems an ideal place from which to advance both applied ecology and ecology in general. 2156,1991,3,3,FUEL ETHANOL FROM CELLULOSIC BIOMASS,Ethanol produced from cellulosic biomass is examined as a large-scale transportation fuel. Desirable features include ethanol's fuel properties as well as benefits with respect to urban air quality| global climate change| balance of trade| and energy security. Energy balance| feed-stock supply| and environmental impact considerations are not seen as significant barriers to the widespread use of fuel ethanol derived from cellulosic biomass. Conversion economics is the key obstacle to be overcome. In light of past progress and future prospects for research-driven improvements| a cost-competitive process appears possible in a decade. 3566,1991,3,4,GETTING STARTED - NO-REGRETS STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS,An integrated approach for choosing among energy supply- and demand-side measures shows that| compared to business-as-usual demand patterns| global greenhouse-gas emissions can be reduced well below current levels with net economic benefits to society. Given these findings| a 'wait-and-see' stance towards new initiatives in energy and environmental policy is not economically justifiable. Achieving significant emissions reductions| however| will require commitments to policies aimed at enabling energy markets to function more efficiently and supporting legislation where market forces do not suffice. 3512,1991,2,2,GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGES,Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health| because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels| global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants| acid deposition| and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health| this review emphasizes the processes that are responsible for the greenhouse effect| air pollution| acid deposition| and increased exposure to UV radiation. 3556,1991,2,4,GLOBAL CHANGE AND TERRESTRIAL HYDROLOGY - A REVIEW,This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models are considered. At present| a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point. 2151,1991,3,6,GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,This paper reviews the validity of the greehouse warning theory| its possible impact on the automotive industry| and what could be done. Currently there is very limited evidence that man's activity has caused global warming. Mathematical models of the earth's heat balance predict warming and associated climate changes| but their predictions have not been validated. Concern over possible warming has led to several evaluations of feasible CO2 control measures. Although cars and trucks contribute only a small fraction of the CO2 buildup| the automotive industry may be expected to reduce its share of the atmospheric CO2 loading if controls become necessary. Methods to reduce automotive CO2 emissions| including alternative fuels such as methanol| natural gas| and electricity| are discussed. Also| control of the other greenhouse gases| which may currently contribute about 45 percent of the greenhouse warming| is considered.
2138,1991,3,4,GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE - IMPLICATIONS FOR THAILAND ENERGY-SYSTEMS,An energy/environmental model has been developed to estimate Thailand's energy consumption and CO2 emissions through the end of the National Tenth Plan (year 2011). The projection suggests that fossil-fuel consumption| not deforestation| will be the major source of emissions during 1990-2011. By the year 2011| energy-efficiency improvement measures could bring about a 14% reduction of CO2 emissions. Any reduction beyond this level would require switches of fuel mix in the power| transportation| and industrial sectors. Fuel shifts in the power sector alone could cut emissions by up to 20% to 30%. In the longer run| Thailand should consider adopting unconventional sources of energy| as well as make use of reforestation policy to absorb future CO2 emissions. 2131,1991,2,4,GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND INFECTIOUS-DISEASES,The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent| vector| and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus| and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholerae is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years| cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe| Africa| and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help us to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed.
3584,1991,3,2,GLOBAL WARMING - CAUSES| CONSEQUENCES| AND SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR LATIN-AMERICA,The scientific evidence is clear in showing that the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere| which trap heat that otherwise would be lost to space| will cause a rise in the planetary temperature. It has also been suggested that this warming is already occurring. Anthropogenic emissions of these greenhouse gases since the industrial revolution have altered the composition of the atmosphere| and may be responsible for the observed warming of 0.5-1.0-degrees-C in the mean temperature of the planet| and a rise in sea level of about 10 cm. Although this is primarily a result of fossil fuel use by developed countries of the northern hemisphere| deforestation in tropical countries could be an important source of emissions as well. The consequences of this continuous warming| if no preventive actions are taken| will be catastrophic. Latin American countries could be affected directly and indirectly| and the social| political| and economic implications are serious. Lowering the use of fossil fuels and stopping tropical deforestation are the best practical solutions to global warmining. International cooperation is necessary to achieve these goals| taking into account the development needs of Latin American and other Third World countries. Development projects that promote sustainable uses of tropical forests could benefit Latin American countries while at the same time contribute to the solution to global warming. It is imperative that the problem of global warming be taken seriously| and that preventive measures be taken immediately.
3518,1991,4,2,GLOBAL WARMING - EVIDENCE FOR ASYMMETRIC DIURNAL TEMPERATURE-CHANGE,Analyses of the year-month mean maximum and minimum surface thermometric record have now been updated and expanded to cover three large countries in the Northern Hemisphere (the contiguous United States| the Soviet Union| and the People's Republic of China). They indicate that most of the warming which has occurred in these regions over the past four decades can be attributed to an increase of mean minimum (mostly nighttime) temperatures. Mean maximum (mostly daytime) temperatures display little or no warming. In the USA and the USSR (no access to data in China) similar characteristics are also reflected in the changes of extreme seasonal temperatures| e.g.| increase of extreme minimum temperatures and little or no change in extreme maximum temperatures. The continuation of increasing minimum temperatures and little overall change of the maximum leads to a decrease of the mean (and extreme) temperature range| an important measure of climate variability. The cause(s) of the asymmetric diurnal changes are uncertain| but there is some evidence to suggest that changes in cloud cover plays a direct role (where increases in cloudiness result in reduced maximum and higher minimum temperatures). Regardless of the exact cause(s)| these results imply that either: (1) climate model projections considering the expected change in the diurnal temperature range with increased levels of the greenhouse gases are underestimating (overestimating) the rise of the daily minimum (maximum) relative to the maximum (minimum)| or (2) the observed warming in a considerable portion of the Northern Hemisphere landmass is significantly affected by factors unrelated to an enhanced anthropogenically-induced greenhouse effect. 3527,1991,2,6,GLOBAL WARMING - WHAT DOES THE SCIENCE TELL US,Computer models predict that clear signs of the greenhouse effect should have appeared as a consequence of increases in greenhouse gases| equivalent to a 50% increase in carbon dioxide in the last 100 years. The predictions are contradicted by the climate record in nearly every important respect. Contrary to the models: (1) the Northern Hemisphere has not warmed more than the Southern Hemisphere| (2) high latitudes have not warmed more than low latitudes| and (3) the U.S. has not shown the predicted warming trend| although this is the largest area in the world for which well-distributed| reliable records are available. Finally| all of the computations of the greenhouse effect show an accelerating increase in temperature in the 1980s| reflecting the rapid increase in greenhouse gases in recent years. However| measurements from orbiting satellites with a precision of 0.01-degrees-C show no trend to higher temperatures in the 1980s.
2137,1991,3,3,GLOBAL WARMING AND CLEAN ELECTRICITY,The possibility of global climate change due to the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases poses dangers of a magnitude which is imprecisely known but may be very large. The problem can be ameliorated by reducing fossil fuel consumption through conservation and expanded use of nuclear and solar power. In particular| major reductions can be achieved if fossil fuels are replaced in electricity generation and if electricity assumes a larger role in the overall energy economy.
3520,1991,2,4,GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN MEXICO,Climate models suggest that global warming could bring warmer| drier conditions to Mexico. Although precipitation increases are projected by some models| in most cases they do not compensate for increases in potential evaporation. Thus| soil moisture and water availability may decrease over much of Mexico with serious consequences for rainfed and irrigated agriculture| urban and industrial water supplies| hydropower and ecosystems. However| the assessment of global warming impacts in Mexico is an uncertain task because the projections of different models vary widely| particularly for precipitation| and because they perform poorly in reproducing the observed climate of Mexico. 3514,1991,4,3,GLOBAL WARMING AND ELECTRIC-POWER GENERATION - WHAT IS THE CONNECTION,At present there is tremendous public interest in the global environment and the public scrutiny of industrial activities vis-a-vis their environmental impact. Large quantities of carbon dioxide are emitted to the atmosphere by many sources| both natural and man-made. Electric power generation by any fossil fuel burning produces carbon dioxide. In order to better understand the greenhouse problem| this paper discusses the quantity of carbon dioxide produced; where does it go and what impact does it have? This information may better prepare the electric utilities to address future public concerns and the related regulatory pressure regarding the carbon dioxide proliferation and the global warming. 3547,1991,2,4,GLOBAL WARMING AND REGIONAL RAINFALL - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AVERAGE AND HIGH-INTENSITY RAINFALLS,Comparison of rainfall during cold and warm periods within instrumental records has been useful in developing quantitative climate scenarios in the face of prospective global warming. In south-eastern Australia| it is known that a warm period in the Southern Hemisphere in the latter part of this century coincided with greater rainfall| especially during summer months. In this study| based on daily rainfall data from 17 stations with longest record lengths on the Southern Tablelands| Australia| it is observed that high intensity rainfall does not necessarily follow the same pattern. In fact| the difference between rainfall in a warm and wet and a cold and dry period could decrease as the critical rainfall intensity increases. 3630,1991,2,4,GLOBAL WARMING AND THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY,The international insurance industry has had to deal with major increases in economic losses caused by natural and/or human-induced catastrophes over the last few decades. This article outlines how global warming is expected to increase such losses even further| and the consequences that this will have on the insurance industry. It examines the options for insuring against such risks and concludes that speedy political decisions are needed to minimize and mitigate the catastrophes that will occur if global warming is not soon brought under control. 3571,1991,4,5,GLOBAL WARMING AS A MANIFESTATION OF A RANDOM-WALK,Global and hemispheric series of surface temperature anomalies are examined in an attempt to isolate any specific features of the structure of the series that might contribute to the global warming of about 0.5-degrees-C which has been observed over the past 100 years. It is found that there are no significant differences between the means of the positive and negative values of the changes in temperature from one year to the next; neither do the relative frequencies of the positive and negative values differ from the frequencies that would be expected by chance with a probability near 0.5. If the interannual changes are regarded as changes of unit magnitude and plotted in a Cartesian frame of reference with time measured along the x axis and yearly temperature differences along the y axis| the resulting path closely resembles the kind of random walk that occurs during a coin-tossing game. We hypothesize that the global and hemispheric temperature series are the result of a Markov process. The climate system is subjected to various forms of random impulses. It is argued that the system fails to return to its former state after reacting to an impulse but tends to adjust to a new state of equilibrium as prescribed by the shock. This happens because a net positive feedback accompanies each shock and slightly alters the environmental state. 2150,1991,3,3,GLOBAL WHAT - CONTROL POSSIBILITIES OF CO2 AND OTHER GREENHOUSE GASES,Global what? is a frequent response by those who first hear of the potential for global warming| global climate change| and global catastrophe| potentially brought on by excessive greenhouse gases in the upper atmosphere. The principal greenhouse gas| CO2| is joined by methane| N2O| and other trace gases in absorbing infrared radiation| which would otherwise escape into space| a process thought to be responsible for gradual increase in temperature that will melt ice caps and raise ocean levels. This paper discusses control possibilities that could be considered once there is agreement that CO2 must be controlled. Many of the responses to the energy crisis of 1974 are applicable for CO2 control. A variety of technologies| energy sources| and ideas are offered that| in combination| could be the basis for a global energy policy. Conversion and replacement of coal| oil| and eventually natural gas fired electric power plants with other energy sources such as nuclear| solar| wind| tidal| and geothermal| could significantly reduce CO2 emissions. There are| however| no good alternatives to fossil fuels used in transportation that significantly reduce CO2 emissions. Of all the fossil fuels| natural gas has the least CO2 production. Electric vehicles and hydrogen-fueled engines are future possibilities| but the electricity for the electric cars and for making hydrogen must be from nonfossil fuel driven generators. Conservation| efficiency| and tax incentives are other parts of a control strategy| once the amount of control considered necessary is established. Renewed interest in nonfossil fuel energy sources and their research and development is obviously needed. 3610,1991,2,3,GREENHOUSE WARMING MAY MODERATE BRITISH STORMINESS,An analysis of data pertaining to the period 1861-1986 reveals that (1) a 1-degrees-C rise in the mean annual air temperature of the British Isles has historically been associated with a 35% drop in the percentage of days that the United Kingdom has experienced cyclonic flow| and (2) a 2-degrees-C increase in the mean annual air temperature over the sea to the north has typically been matched by a 60% drop in the percentage of days that the Isles have experienced cyclonic flow originating from that source region. These findings raise significant questions about the oft-reported claim that CO2-induced global warming will lead to an increase in world storminess. 3622,1991,2,2,GREENHOUSE-EFFECT AND COASTAL WETLAND POLICY - HOW AMERICANS COULD ABANDON AN AREA THE SIZE OF MASSACHUSETTS AT MINIMUM COST,Climatologists generally expect an anthropogenic global warming that could raise sea level 30-150 cm in the next century and more thereafter. One of the impacts would be the loss of coastal wetlands. Although the inundation of adjacent dryland would enable new wetlands to form| much of this land is or will soon be developed. If developed areas are protected| wetlands will be squeezed between an advancing sea and the land being protected| which has already happened in China and the Netherlands| where people have built dikes for centuries. Unlike those countries| the United States has enough land to accommodate the landward migration of wetlands; but governments lack the funds to purchase all the coastal lowlands that might inundated and the legal authority to prohibit their development. We propose a third approach: allowing property owners to use coastal lowlands today as they choose| but setting up a legal mechanism to ensure that the land is abandoned if and when sea level rises enough to inundate it. Although compensation may be required| this approach would cost less than 1% as much as purchasing the land| and would be (1) economically efficient by enabling real estate markets to incorporate expectations of future sea level rise; (2) constitutional by compensating property owners; and (3) politically feasible by pleasing people who care about the long-term fate of the coastal environment without disturbing people who either are unconcerned about the distant future or do not believe sea level will rise. This article demonstrates that it would be irrational to delay policy formulation until sea level rise projections are more precise. The cost will be small if we act now but great if we wait| and sea level is already rising along most coasts. The US government should develop a strategy in the next three years. 3589,1991,2,3,GREENHOUSE-EFFECT AND SEA-LEVEL RISE - THE COST OF HOLDING BACK THE SEA,Previous studies suggest that the expected global warming from the greenhouse effect could raise sea level 50 to 200 cm (2 to 7 ft) in the next century. This article presents the first nationwide assessment of the primary impacts of such a rise on the United States: (1) the cost of protecting ocean resort communities by pumping sand onto beaches and gradually raising barrier islands in place; (2) the cost of protecting developed areas along sheltered waters through the use of levees (dikes) and bulkheads; and (3) the loss of coastal wetlands and undeveloped lowlands. The total cost for a 1-m rise would be between $270 and $475 billion| ignoring future development. We estimate that if no measures are taken to hold back the sea| a 1-m rise in sea level would inundate 30|000 sq km (14|000 sq mi)| with wet and dry land each accounting for about half the loss. The 1500 sq km (600-700 sq mi) of densely developed coastal lowlands could be protected for approximately $1000 to $2000 per year for a typical coastal lot. Given high coastal property values| holding back the sea would probably be cost-effective. The environmental consequences of doing so| however| may not be acceptable. Although the most common engineering solution for protecting the ocean coast| pumping sand| would allow us to keep our beaches| levees and bulkheads along sheltered waters would gradually eliminate most of the nation's wetland shorelines. To ensure the long-term survival of coastal wetlands| federal and state environmental agencies should begin to lay the groundwork for a gradual abandonment of coastal lowlands as sea level rises. 3585,1991,4,3,HALOCARBONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE - TRENDS AND VERTICAL PROFILES,Very stable halocarbons such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and carbon tetrachloride are responsible for both the stratospheric ozone depletion and the global warming as they accumulate in the atmosphere. Background atmospheric concentrations of CFCs and other halocarbons have been determined accurately and precisely at surface level both in the northern hemisphere (Hokkaido) and in the southern hemisphere (Antarctica). The atmospheric concentrations of CFC-11 and CFC-12 have been increasing by 4% a year since 1979; the CFC-113 concentration tends to increase much faster (10-20% a year). Vertical profiles of major CFCs upto the stratosphere as determined in balloon experiments (grab-sampling and cryogenic sampling) over Japan reflect their behaviors in the stratospheric UV photolysis. 3588,1991,4,3,HISTORY AND PATTERN OF DISTURBANCE IN ALASKAN ARCTIC TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS - A HIERARCHICAL APPROACH TO ANALYZING LANDSCAPE CHANGE,(1) The history| types| and scales of disturbance in Arctic Alaska are reviewed and disturbances organized according to the spatial and temporal domains of Delcourt| Delcourt and Webb. This system is also used as a framework for a regional hierarchical geographic information system (GIS). (2) Natural disturbances vary from frequent small disturbances| such as needle-ice formation| to infrequent large disturbances| such as major glaciations. Most natural disturbances are either directly or indirectly climatically driven and are affected by climate changes| particularly changes to hydrologic regimes. The latter could be influenced by changes in either summer or winter precipitation patterns; increased temperature| which would melt ground ice; or changes in vegetation| which would affect evapotranspiration and run-off. (3) Most anthropogenic disturbances are microscale (10(-1) to 10(6) m2) phenomena| but cumulative impacts associated with large developments| such as the Prudhoe Bay Oil Field| have affected mesoscale regions (10(6)-10(10) m2)| and global warming could affect the tundra ecosystem at the macroscale level (10(10)-10(12) m2). (4) In the Arctic| recovery of the vegetation following disturbance is particularly closely linked to recovery of the physical system because of the presence of ice-rich permafrost. Maps of terrain sensitivity to disturbance must consider the influence of ground ice and heat flux to the system following disturbance. (5) A three-tiered GIS hierarchy with five sublevels is presented| with examples of typical scientific questions being addressed at each level| scales and types of databases| and linking elements between levels. (6) At the regional (macroscale and mesoscale) levels| the primary data sources are statellite-derived digital data. At the site level| integrated geobotanical databases derived from field surveys and photointerpretation are used in combination with digital terrain models. At the most detailed (plot or microsite) level| point sampling is used to portray vegetation structure and species composition in 1-m2 plots. (7) Linking or 'scaling-up' elements that affect landscape patterns at all scales are hydrology| geochemistry| and primary production. 2134,1991,2,3,HUMAN HEALTH-EFFECTS AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,The implications for human health from global climate change are presented. Major human health hazards that may occur include the following: an increase in air pollution related disease| especially lung disease in children| elderly| and people with pre-existing chronic lung disease; an increase in bioavailability and mobility of toxic metals as related to acid rain; possible increases in vector-borne disease into new geographic locations; an increase in the frequency and severity of skin cancers and eye diseases from stratospheric ozone depletion and increased UV; changes in biodiversity that impact medical research and treatment development; and the appearance of human health hazards from attempts to mitigate global climate change| for example| CFC replacement chemicals| alternative fuels| solar energy components| and increased use of nuclear energy.
3620,1991,2,4,ICE ON LAKE-ONTARIO AT KINGSTON,Observations are reported of freezeup| growth| decay| and breakup of ice during a 10-year period on Lake Ontario at Kingston. The date of freezeup is related to the date on which the running mean air temperature during n days fell to 0-degrees-C where 55 less-than-or-equal-to n less-than-or-equal-to 100 for early and late freezeup respectively. The mean duration of ice cover was 71.7 days (range 18-96 days). Average mean ice thickness was 32 cm and maximum ice thickness in a given year is related to the intensity of cooling measured in degree days of freezing. Breakup normally occurs more rapidly than in smaller| completely ice-covered lakes as a result of the mechanical action of waves and currents. It is estimated that the climatic warming predicted by Global Climate Models will result in little or no ice formation on this part of Lake Ontario. The close response of ice to climatic control while filtering minor fluctuations from the record offers a tool to assess the early stages of climatic warming. 3574,1991,2,3,IMPLICATIONS OF CO2 GLOBAL WARMING ON GREAT-LAKES ICE COVER,Statistical ice cover models were used to project daily mean basin ice cover and annual ice cover duration for Lakes Superior and Erie. Models were applied to a 1951-80 base period and to three 30-year steady double carbon dioxide (2 x CO2) scenarios produced by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)| the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS)| and the Oregon State University (OSU) general circulation models. Ice cover estimates were made for the West| Central| and East Basins of Lake Erie and for the West| East| and Whitefish Bay Basins of Lake Superior. Average ice cover duration for the 1951-80 base period ranged from 13 to 16 weeks for individual lake basins. Reductions in average ice cover duration under the three 2 x CO2 scenarios for individual lake basins ranged from 5 to 12 weeks for the OSU scenario| 8 to 13 weeks for the GISS scenario| and 11 to 13 weeks for GFDL scenario. Winters without ice formation become common for Lake Superior under the GFDL scenario and under all three 2 x CO2 scenarios for the Central and East Basins of Lake Erie. During an average 2 x CO2 winter| ice cover would be limited to the shallow areas of Lakes Erie and Superior. Because of uncertainties in the ice cover models| the results given here represent only a first approximation and are likely to represent an upper limit of the extent and duration of ice cover under the climiate change projected by the three 2 x CO2 scenarios. Notwithstanding these limitations| ice cover projected by the 2 x CO2 scenarios provides a preliminary assessment of the potential sensitivity of the Great Lakes ice cover to global warming. Potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts of a 2 x CO2 warming include year-round navigation| change in abundance of some fish species in the Great Lakes| discontinuation or reduction of winter recreational activities| and an increase in winter lake evaporation. 2139,1991,4,4,IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR BIOGEOGRAPHIC PATTERNS IN THE GREATER YELLOWSTONE ECOSYSTEM,Projected changes in global climate have substantial ramifications for biological diversity and the management of natural areas. We explored the potential implications of global climate change for biogeographic patterns in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem by using a conceptual model to compare three likely climate scenarios: (1) warmer and drier than the present; (2) warmer and drier| but with a compensating increase in plant water use efficiency; and (3) warmer and wetter than the present. The logical consequences of each scenario are projected for several species and community types chosen to represent a range of local climate conditions and biotic responses in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. The upper and lower timberline appear to be particularly sensitive to climate change. The upper timberline is likely to migrate upward in elevation in response to temperature changes| whereas the lower treeline may retreat under drier conditions or move down slope under wetter conditions. In all scenarios| the extent of alpine vegetation in the ecosystem decreased. Climate-induced changes in the fire regime in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem would probably have substantial consequences for the extent and age-class distribution of forest communities. Alterations in the distribution and extent of grassland communities would affect the populations of large ungulates. Our analyses suggest directions for establishing long-term measurements for the early detection of responses to climate change.
3553,1991,4,3,INTERPRETATION OF SNOW-CLIMATE FEEDBACK AS PRODUCED BY 17 GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODELS,Snow feedback is expected to amplify global warming caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The conventional explanation is that a warmer Earth will have less snow cover| resulting in a darker planet that absorbs more solar radiation. An intercomparison of 17 general circulation models| for which perturbations of sea surface temperature were used as a surrogate climate change| suggests that this explanation is overly simplistic. The results instead indicate that additional amplification or moderation may be caused both by cloud interactions and longwave radiation. One measure of this net effect of snow feedback was found to differ markedly among the 17 climate models| ranging from weak negative feedback in some models to strong positive feedback in others. 3600,1991,5,3,IS THE EXTENT OF GLACIATION LIMITED BY MARINE GAS-HYDRATES,Methane may have been released to the atmosphere during the Quaternary from Arctic shelf gas-hydrates as a result of thermal decomposition caused by climatic warming and rising sea-level; this release of methane (a greenhouse gas) may represent a positive feedback on global warming [Revelle| 1983; Kvenvolden| 1988a; Nisbet| 1990]. We consider the response to sea-level changes by the immense amount of gas-hydrate that exists in continental rise sediments| and suggest that the reverse situation may apply -- that release of methane trapped in the deep-sea sediments as gas-hydrates may provide a negative feedback to advancing glaciation. Methane is likely to be released from deep-sea gas-hydrates as sea-level falls because methane gas-hydrates decompose with pressure decrease. Methane would be released to sediment pore space at shallow sub-bottom depths (100's of meters beneath the seafloor| commonly at water depths of 500 to 4|000 m) producing zones of markedly decreased sediment strength| leading to slumping [Carpenter| 1981; Kayen| 1988] and abrupt release of the gas. Methane is likely to be released to the atmosphere in spikes that become larger and more frequent as glaciation progresses. Because addition of methane to the atmosphere warms the planet| this process provides a negative feedback to glaciation| and could trigger deglaciation. 3590,1991,2,4,LAND-USE IMPLICATIONS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE - A CASE-STUDY AT MYRTLE-BEACH| SOUTH-CAROLINA,The prospect of global warming and consequent sea level rise will have important implications for coastal communities. This article examines the land use implications of alternate sea level rise scenarios on the city of Myrtle Beach| South Carolina. Current trends as well as high and low sea level rise scenarios are superimposed on the city's beach profile and near shore contours to estimate the type and value of land development likely to be impacted. It is found that losses associated with accelerated sea level rise would be particularly high in the city's hotel district and that overall property loss could range from 21 to 60% of the city's total property value. To lessen these potential losses| coastal communities such as Myrtle Beach must choose among one of three policy options including: (1) barricade the beach| (2) raise the land| and (3) implement a strategic retreat. Specific alternatives within each of these options are explored in turn. The article concludes that successful development plans will incorporate ground rules sensitive to and consistent with dynamic coastal processes. 3618,1991,3,3,LEAST-COST GREENHOUSE PLANNING - SUPPLY CURVES FOR GLOBAL WARMING ABATEMENT,This paper presents a methodology for comparing the cost-effectiveness of different technical options for the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions. The methodology also allows a determination of the extent to which each technology can contribute to abatement by a specified date. The primary focus of the paper concerns carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The analysis concludes that of seventeen different abatement options examined| the nuclear option is the most expensive| except for the marginal CO2 savings achieved from advanced coal technology. A combination of energy efficiency measures and high efficiency gas-fired generation can achieve CO2 savings approaching 285 million tonnes per year by year 2005. This represents a saving of 46.5% over existing emissions from the stationary sector (ie excluding transport). If the analysis is extended to include the effect of methane emissions from fossil fuel cycles| the advantages of energy efficiency and the renewable generating sources is improved. 3573,1991,2,4,LIKELY CLIMATIC CHANGES AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN PASTORAL INDUSTRY,Global warming is predicted to have less impact on northern than southern Australia due to temperature increase being least at the equator and increasing polewards. Estimates for northern Australia suggest an increase in temperature of 1 or 2-degrees-C in northern coastal areas and 2 to 4-degrees-C inland by the year 2030. Summer rainfall could increase by +10 to +20%. Warming in inland regions could result in a southwards shift of the northern limits of the sheep industry| the frost zone and the winter growing species. The shift could be of the order of 1.5 degrees of latitude for 1-degrees-C increase in temperature. The seasonality and monsoonal nature of rainfall in northern Australia will increase the importance of soil characteristics| especially for the Vertisols. Within regions| day length and solar radiation will not change but rainfall and temperature will change| creating new climates to which indigenous and introduced species may not be adapted. Increased water use efficiency due to higher CO2 levels and stomatal closure during the day could offset the predicted negative effect of higher temperature on plant growth. Pasture legumes| being C3 plants| could benefit from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Research is needed to develop more comprehensive pasture-plant models and to provide better predictions using regional climate model output. 3530,1991,3,3,LIMITING EMISSIONS OF THE GREENHOUSE GAS| CO2,While considerable global warming uncertainties remain| limiting the emission of the greenhouse gas| CO2| at minimum cost is a growing social concern. An approach suggested is to generate electricity by processes that facilitate capture of the CO2| and then to compress and inject it into suitable underground formations. By using formations containing uneconomical deposits of energy sources such as oil| gas| Fe++| coal| etc.| underground bioconversion of the CO2 to recoverable fuel forms may prove possible. 3519,1991,2,4,LOCAL-GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC ADAPTATION TO SEA-LEVEL RISE,Global warming could result in a rise in global mean sea level of 9-29 cm between 1990 and 2030. By the end of the 21st century| global mean sea level could stand 30-110 cm higher than in 1990. Those projections suggest that sea level could rise between 3 and 10 cm per decade during the next century. This is a marked acceleration over the increase of 1-2 cm per decade observed during the past century. How will local governments and citizens respond? What are the obstacles to local government and public cognition of| and response to| sea-level rise? This paper reviews some of the basic issues involved in responding to accelerated sea-level rise; the range of possible policy responses; the extent to which local governments and the public perceive and respond to threats of sea-level rise; and the need for research into the determinants of cognition and response. 3521,1991,2,4,MANAGING THE INDUS RIVER BASIN IN LIGHT OF CLIMATE CHANGE - 4 CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES,Global warming raises troubling questions about the ecological and economic future of large irrigated river basins such as the Indus River in Pakistan. But it is not clear how potential impacts might best be identified or addressed. This article reports on a multidisciplinary study of four distinct conceptual approaches to climate change: climate scenarios assessment; critical water management problems; historic antecedents and analogies; and Muslim political reconstruction. Current scientific research emphasizes the first approach| but the other three may be more important for water managers in the basin. The article reviews previous research on water resources effects of climate change; introduces the Indus basin; discusses the four conceptual approaches; and finally discusses prospects for coordinating them. 3513,1991,2,4,MERCURY AND MONOMETHYLMERCURY - PRESENT AND FUTURE CONCERNS,Global atmospheric changes carry the potential to disrupt the normal cycling of mercury and its compounds. Acid rain may increase methylmercury levels in freshwater fish. Global warming and increased ultraviolet radiation may affect the global budget of methylmercury| including its formation and degradation in both biotic and abiotic environments. In this article we review current knowledge on mercury and monomethylmercury with regard to their environmental fate and the potential for human health effects. Recent findings indicate that atmospheric Hg deposition readily accounts for the total mass of Hg in fish| water| and sediment of Little Rock Lake| a representative temperate seepage lake in north-central Wisconsin. It is strikingly evident that modest increases in atmospheric Hg loading could lead directly to elevated levels in the fish stock. It is doubtful| given the experimental limitations in many recent studies| that the temporal pattern for Hg emissions| for background atmospheric Hg concentrations| and for changes in Hg depositional fluxes has been identified. Thus| the present and future questions of whether the environmental impact is of local| regional| or hemispheric significance remain. Contemporary investigations must address these important questions. Human exposure to methylmercury in the United States is probably increasing due to increased consumption of fish and fish products. A recent epidemiological investigation indicates high susceptibility to brain damage during prenatal exposures to Hg. An important objective for future investigation is to establish the lowest effect level for human exposure to methylmercury. 3609,1991,4,4,MICROWAVE SOUNDING UNITS AND GLOBAL WARMING - RESPONSE,In their research article "Precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites|" R. W. Spencer and J. R. Christy assert(1) that satellite microwave sounding units(MSUs) exhibit superb stability and may be used to monitor global warming in a way that is not possible by other means.
2142,1991,3,3,MITIGATION OPTIONS AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES,This paper discusses the limitations of applying the traditional economic tool of cost-benefit analysis to considering strategies that would mitigate the effects of global climate change. These studies are the basis for many policies that claim that addressing the risks of global climate change is prohibitively expensive. This paper presents another type of analytical framework-the end-use study. Used extensively by engineers and scientists| end-use studies attempt to project future energy needs and then consider how to best meet the expected need| which contrasts with traditional econometric methods that focus almost exclusively on energy pricing.
3577,1991,2,2,MODEL ESTIMATES OF CO2 EMISSIONS FROM SOIL IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING,ONE effect of global warming will be to accelerate the decomposition of soil organic matter| thereby releasing CO2 to the atmosphere| which will further enhance the warming trend 1-7. Such a feedback mechanism could be quantitatively important| because CO2 is thought to be responsible for approximately 55% of the increase in radiative forcing arising from anthropogenic emissions of gases to the atmosphere 8| and there is about twice as much carbon in the top metre of soil as in the atmosphere 9. Here we use the Rothamsted model for the turnover of organic matter in soil 3 to calculate the amount of CO2 that would be released from the world stock of soil organic matter if temperatures increase as predicted| the annual return of plant debris to the soil being held constant. If world temperatures rise by 0.03-degrees-C yr-1 (the increase considered as most likely by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 8)| we estimate that the additional release of CO2 from soil organic matter over the next 60 years will be 61 x 10(15) gC. This is approximately 19% of the CO2 that will be released by combustion of fossil fuel during the next 60 years if present use of fuel continues unabated. 3599,1991,3,4,MODELING OF THE CHEMISTRY OF WET LIMESTONE FLUE-GAS DESULFURIZATION SYSTEMS,The chemistry of wet limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems is complicated by the interaction of dissolved SO2 and dissolved nitrogen oxides. A substantial number of nitrogen-sulfur compounds can be formed from the reactions of sulfite and bisulfite ions with nitrogen oxyanions. A computer model is used to simulate the kinetics and to determine the effect of scrubber operating conditions on the production of nitrogen-sulfur compounds. With increasingly stringent regulations covering solid and liquid waste disposal| it is important to minimize undesirable byproducts in FGD systems. The modeling is also used to study the effect of scrubber conditions on the production of N2O (nitrous oxide). Emission of N2O into the atmosphere is undesirable because it has both significant ozone depletion potential and global warming potential. 3536,1991,2,4,MODIFICATION OF THE RESPONSE OF PHOTOSYNTHETIC PRODUCTIVITY TO RISING TEMPERATURE BY ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATIONS - HAS ITS IMPORTANCE BEEN UNDERESTIMATED,Climate change will include correlated increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration (C(a)). Rising temperatures will increase the ratio of photorespiratory loss of carbon to photosynthetic gain| whilst rising C(a) will have an opposing effect. The mechanism of these effects at the level of carboxylation in C3 photosynthesis are quantitatively well understood and provide a basis for models of the response of leaf and canopy carbon exchange to climate change. The principles of such a model are referred to here and used to quantitatively examine the implications of concurrent increase in temperature and C(a). Simulations of leaf photosynthesis show the increase| with elevation of C(a) from 350 to 650-mu-mol mol-1| in light saturated rates of CO2 uptake (A(sat)) and maximum quantum yields (phi) to rise with temperature. An increase in C(a) from 350 to 650-mu-mol mol-1 can increase A(sat) by 20% at 10-degrees-C and by 105% at 35-degrees-C| and can raise the temperature optimum of A(sat) by 5-degrees-C. This pattern of change agrees closely with experimental data. At the canopy level| simulations also suggest a strong interaction of increased temperature and CO2 concentration. Predictions are compared with the findings of long-term field studies. The principles used here suggest that elevated C(a) will alter both the magnitude of the response of leaf and canopy carbon gain to rising temperature| and sometimes| the direction of response. Findings question the value of models for predicting plant production in response to climate change which ignore the direct effects of rising C(a) and the modifications that rising C(a) imposes on the temperature response of net CO2 exchange. 2161,1991,2,3,MYCORRHIZAL MEDIATION OF PLANT-RESPONSE TO ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE - AIR-QUALITY CONCEPTS AND RESEARCH CONSIDERATIONS,The term 'global climate change' encompasses many physical and chemical changes in the atmosphere that have been induced by anthropogenic pollutants. Increases in concentrations of CO2 and CH4 enhance the 'greenhouse effect' of the atmosphere and may contribute to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns at the earth's surface. Nitrogen oxides and SO2 are phytotoxic and also react with other pollutants to produce other phytotoxins in the troposphere such as O3 and acidic substances. However| release of chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere may cause depletion of stratospheric O3| increasing the transmittance of ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation to the earth's surface. Increased intensities of UV-B could affect plants and enhance photochemical reactions that generate some phytotoxic pollutants. The role of mycorrhizae in plant responses to such stresses has received little attention. Although plans for several research programs have acknowledged the importance of drought tolerance and soil fertility in plant responses to atmospheric stresses| mycorrhizae are rarely targeted to receive specific investigation. Most vascular land plants form mycorrhizae| so the role of mycorrhizae in mediating plant responses to atmospheric change may be an important consideration in predicting effects of atmospheric changes on plants in managed and natural ecosystems.
3551,1991,3,3,NATIONAL LEGISLATION AND OTHER OPTIONS FOR ADDRESSING POTENTIAL GLOBAL WARMING,Americans| as citizens of a powerful| industrialized country| must recognize that we are putting pollutants into our atmosphere. We must also acknowledge the fact that we have a significant role to play in being part of the solution. When planning to develop legislation to deal with any issue| the legislator must be aware of certain problems. First| there must be an identified problem. Then he or she must recognize that the development of legislation is tedious and precise. The bill that is written must be substantive| have clear goals| and be very focused. One should also keep in mind that there must be a consensus to pass the bill.
3533,1991,2,4,NEAR-FUTURE SEA-LEVEL IMPACTS ON COASTAL DUNE LANDSCAPES,Very little attention has been paid to the impact of global warming| especially sea level rise| on coastal dune-scapes| despite the fact that these provide natural protection along many of the world's shorelines. This paper reviews likely responses given the IPCC climate change predictions to 2030AD| which include sea level rise in the order of 0.09 to 0.29m. It is envisaged that coastal dunes will react in a variety of ways dependent both on regional and local factors. Rising water levels will increase susceptibility to erosion| but the fate of released sediment| particularly the onshore/offshore partitioning| must depend on morphodynamic antecedence| and the propensity for periodic domain shifts. The release of material at the shoreline may allow construction of coastal dunes| to the point of progradation in some zones. The response of dune vegetation to a warmer| wetter climate is uncertain. Most of the main temperate dune species are C3 plants which given favourable conditions would respond positively to CO2 enhancement. However local factors may offset such potential gains. 2149,1991,4,4,NEW ASSESSMENTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,Based on discussions at a Session of the Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change Working Group 1 held during the period February 26 - March 2| 1990 in Great Britain| and in the context of the WG-1 Report| a review has been made of the state-of-the-art of studies on global climate change. A consensus has been reached on one of the most important conclusions that the causes of the climate warming observed during the last century remain still unclear. This determines the top urgency of studies and quantitative assessments of the internally forced variability of the climate system| without which the "filtering-out" of anthropogenic impacts on climate cannot be reliable. Such insufficiently studied factors of climate formation as ocean-atmosphere and cloud-radiation interactions are the most substantial aspects of the internal variability. The related unsolved problems have been discussed.
3592,1991,4,4,OCEAN CIRCULATION AND OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE EXCHANGES,The oceans have a major influence on climate through the ocean-atmosphere exchange processes. However| limits to our present understanding of some of these processes is an important factor in our inability to model climate change precisely. Present knowledge of ocean structure and circulation is reviewed| with a particular emphasis on the Southern Hemisphere oceans| and the major ocean-atmosphere exchanges are examined. The influence of interhemispheric asymmetries in global warming scenarios is discussed. An improved understanding of the oceans and therefore better climate models will result from planned international ocean research experiments in the 1990s. 2132,1991,4,4,ON DETERMINING THE STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF DISCONTINUITIES WITHIN ORDERED ECOLOGICAL DATA,Current ecological theory hypothesizes that boundaries between adjacent ecosystem units are important in determining ecosystem structure and function across heterogeneous landscapes| and that such boundaries are potentially important sites for early detection of global climate change effects. Hence| there is an increasing research effort to elucidate the structure and function of ecological boundaries. Yet traditional data analysis methods focus primarily on homogeneous units rather than on the boundaries between them; thus| new methods are being developed for detecting| characterizing and classifying boundaries| e.g.| split moving-window boundary analysis (SMW). SMW is a simple yet sensitive method for locating discontinuities that may exist within multivariate| serial data (ordered in one dimension) at various scales relative to the length of the data series. However| SMW is subjective and relative| and therefore locates apparent discontinuities even within random| serial data. In this paper we present two nonparametric methods for determining the statistical significance of discontinuities detected by SMW. First| we describe a Monte Carlo method for determining the statistical significance of scale-dependent discontinuities (i.e.| discontinuities that are significant relative to only one scale). Second| we propose a nonparametric| scale-independent method (it also is dependent upon scale size| but to a much lesser degree than the Monte Carlo method) that is more appropriate for locating statistically significant discontinuities that separate different| relatively homogeneous groups of varying size along a series. We examine the robustness of these two methods using computer-generated data having varying intensities of imposed discontinuities| and illustrate their application to locating boundaries between vegetation samples collected at systematic intervals across a desert landscape in southern New Mexico| USA.
2136,1991,3,3,OPPORTUNITIES FOR CARBON EMISSIONS CONTROL IN POLAND,Poland is an important case study in understanding the role of international cooperation in reducing the risk of global climate change. Currently Poland is experiencing vast changes in its economic structure and energy and environmental policies. This transition has the potential to translate into substantial energy savings and CO2 emissions reductions. The impact of Poland's current efforts will depend largely on the successful implementation of a wide range of already enacted energy laws and regulations| the effective use of incentives and disincentives to decrease energy consumption and the extent to which the international community aids Poland in its quest for improved energy efficiency and environmental protection.
3613,1991,3,2,PASSIVE-SOLAR SCHOOLS IN THE UK,There are currently approximately 23 000 primary and 5000 secondary schools in the UK. (Survey of School Buildings| UK Department of Education and Science| HMSO| London| 1987).1 The total rate of expenditure on fuel for heating and lighting these buildings is about 75 pound sterling million per annum. The dissipation of energy| derived from fossil fuels| in buildings accounts for approximately 24% of the CO2 emissions| and so is a considerable contributor to the excess greenhouse effect and hence global warming. Practising energy thrift in schools therefore represents a considerable opportunity for achieving significant savings with respect to running costs and achieving a more sustainable society. Thus it is not surprising that the number of school buildings incorporating one set of measures| the so-called 'passive-solar' features| is increasing. Such buildings possess the ability to be thermally comfortable while providing mentally-stimulating environments| yet require significantly reduced rates of fossil-fuel consumption compared with those for 'conventional' buildings of similar sizes. The behaviours of six such passive-solar schools have been studied and the effectiveness of each of them has been assessed. Recommendations concerning the inclusion of passive-solar features in educational buildings are made. 3615,1991,2,4,PERTURBATIONS TO TROPOSPHERIC OXIDANTS| 1985-2035 .2. CALCULATIONS OF HYDROGEN-PEROXIDE IN CHEMICALLY COHERENT REGIONS,Increasing global emissions of trace gases NO| CH4| and CO| along with perturbations initiated by changes in stratospheric O3 and H2O| may cause tropospheric hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) levels to change. Specific scenarios of CH4-CO-NO emissions and global climate changes are used to predict HO2 and H2O2 changes from 1985 to 2035 in a one-dimensional model that simulates different chemically coherent regions (e.g. urban| non-urban continental and marine mid-lattitudes; marine and continental low latitudes). If CH4 and CO emissions continue to increase throughout the troposphere at current rates (1% yr-1)| there will be large increases in H2O2| for example| more than 100% in the urban boundary layer from 1985 to 2035. Globally| H2O2 will increase 22% with HO2 increasing 8% and O3 increasing 13%. When CH4| CO and NO emissions are specified on a regionally varying basis and are parameterized for high and low potential growth rates| globally averaged increases in surface concentrations are 12% for H2O2 and 18% for O3. A global warming (with increased H2O vapor) or stratospheric O3 depletion superimposed on CH4| CO and NO emissions changes will cut O3 increases but add to peroxide| increasing levels as much as 150% above present day in some regions. Both globally uniform and region-specific scenarios predict a 10-15% loss in global OH from 1985 to 2035. Thus| conversion of OH to HO2 and H2O2 in the atmosphere may signify a loss of gaseous oxidizing capacity in the atmosphere and an increase in aqueous-phase oxidizing capacity. 3606,1991,3,2,PHOTOVOLTAICS AND MATERIALS SCIENCE - HELPING TO MEET THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPERATIVES OF CLEAN-AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE,Human activity is altering the composition of the atmosphere in unprecedented ways. Fossil fuel combustion| which currently releases 5.6 billion metric tons of carbon annually| in combination with deforestation| has increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide 25% above pre-industrial levels. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation from the earth altering its thermal balance. While carbon dioxide is anticipated to contribute about one-half of human induced global warming| the world energy sector is responsible for an estimated 57% of future global warming when contributions from additional combustion related pollutants are included. In order to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide even at current elevated levels| computer models suggest the need to reduce emission rates by approximately 75%. Present patterns of energy use are also contributing to major air pollution problems. An analysis of policy options shows that a combination of vastly improved energy efficiency strategies and carbon free energy production technologies are essential to simultaneously slow the rate of global warming and improve air quality. This paper summarizes current knowledge of the greenhouse effect and its consequences| and examines how photovoltaic electricity can contribute to atmospheric stabilization goals. Some specific examples and strategies will be given that may accelerate the rate at which photovoltaic technologies can penetrate the market. Should these strategies succeed| it will have major implications for materials science including increased attention to pollution problems associated with the manufacture of many promising photovoltaic technologies. 3524,1991,3,3,PLANNING FOR FUTURE UNCERTAINTIES IN ELECTRIC-POWER GENERATION - AN ANALYSIS OF TRANSITIONAL STRATEGIES FOR REDUCTION OF CARBON AND SULFUR EMISSIONS,The objective of this paper is to identify strategies for the U.S. electric utility industry for reduction of both acid rain producing and global warming gasses. The research used the EPRI Electric Generation Expansion Analysis System (EGEAS) utility optimization / simulation modeling structure and the EPRI developed regional utilities. It focuses on the North East and East Central region of the U.S. Strategies identified were fuel switching -- predominantly between coal and natural gas| mandated emission limits| and a carbon tax. The overall conclusions of the study are that using less (conservation) will always benefit Carbon Emissions but may or may not benefit Acid Rain emissions by the off setting forces of improved performance of new plant as opposed to reduced overall consumption of final product. Results of the study are highly utility and regional demand specific. The study showed| however| that significant reductions in both acid rain and global warming gas production could be achieved with relatively small increases in the overall cost of production of electricity and that the current dispatch logics available to the utility control rooms were adequate to reschedule dispatch to meet these objectives. 3541,1991,2,4,POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING FOR THE NORTHWEST,Regional climate changes are more uncertain than global changes. There are| however| possible regional consequences whose effects are important to recognize. Global warming is likely to raise sea level in some areas and may increase the incidence and severity of river flooding in the Pacific Northwest. Winter snowpack in the mountains may be significantly affected| with consequent effects on water resources available for power generation| irrigation| and fisheries and with effects on agriculture and forestry. Even though uncertainties are considerable| we should not wait to put in place policies and procedures that could provide for flexibility and the use of new understanding as it develops. Climate change should be expected and planned for by the public and by local| state| and federal agencies. 3515,1991,3,4,POSSIBLE BIOGEOCHEMICAL CONSEQUENCES OF OCEAN FERTILIZATION,We consider biogeochemical secondary effects that could arise from an increase in ocean productivity| such as may occur via fertilization with Fe. These processes and feedback loops are infrequently discussed in this context| yet are likely to be highly relevant to the understanding of global change in general. In particular| we suggest that increased productivity may increase the production and efflux of greenhouse gases| such as nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) and that shifts in phytoplankton species and productivity may cause changes in another climate-related gas| dimethylsulfide (DMS). N2O is also implicated in the destruction of stratospheric ozone. Factors contributing to amplified release include both increased nutrient cycling in general and possible development of low oxygen conditions from fertilization. It is also remotely possible that reduced oxygen from an initial fertilization could mobilize existing Fe pools| inducing uncontrolled self-fertilization. Although lack of relevant physiological and ecological data makes it difficult to provide quantitative limits on the extent of the undesired effects| rough calculations suggest that the enhanced release of N2O alone could totally negate any potential benefit from fertilization and likely worsen global warming and ozone depletion. 3594,1991,2,4,POSSIBLE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON CABBAGE ROOT FLY (DELIA-RADICUM) ACTIVITY IN THE UK,A program for simulating the patterns of egg-laying by populations of the cabbage root fly was used to model the effects of global warming on future cabbage root fly attacks. An increase of 3-degrees-C in mean daily temperature would cause the cabbage root fly to become active about a month earlier in the year than at present. Under such conditions| the emergence of flies from the overwintering population would be less synchronised| as the completion of diapause and post-diapause development would occur at the same time in different individuals within the population. However| there would continue to be only three generations of fly each year| even in the south of England. With temperature increases of 5-degrees-C or 10-degrees-C| the fly would complete four generations each year and aestivation would seriously disrupt egglaying. These rises in temperature would have a major impact on cabbage root fly activity and would require new strategties for controlling this pest. 3535,1991,2,3,POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC WARMING SCENARIOS ON WATER-RESOURCES IN THE SASKATCHEWAN RIVER SUBBASIN| CANADA,Regional scale studies of the impacts of global warming scenarios provide a useful mechanism for identifying potential regional sensitivities| data gaps and research needs| and for raising awareness of the global warming issue at the regional level. Thus| a pilot study of water resources in the Saskatchewan River Sub-basin was undertaken in order to provide first-cut estimates of impacts in this region| and to identify future research needs. Thirty scenarios were constructed| using two hypothetical growth rates for irrigation| five scenarios based on outputs from General Circulation Models (GCMs)| and ten hypothetical warming scenarios. During the course of this study| a number of methodological questions were raised| including the representativeness of data points| interpolation of observed and scenario data| and the quantification of uncertainty. Results indicated decreases in summer soil moisture and increases in irrigation demand| but no consensus on changes in runoff or annual net basin supply| primarily due to differences in the GCM-based scenario output at the Rocky Mountains| the major source region for runoff. There were a number of recommendations for follow-up research and monitoring. 3544,1991,2,3,POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON WHITEFISH IN LAKE CONSTANCE| GERMANY,A doubling of the present global atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to occur sometime during the middle of the 21 st century and climatologists have predicted that this will result in an increase in the global mean air temperature ranging from 1.5-degrees-4.5-degrees-C. Fisheries resources are highly responsive to water temperature varirations and will likely undergo marked change as well. We present several predictions for the whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) population of prealpine Lake Constance and| for the early stages of each warming scenario| an increase in whitefish abundance is predicted. Negative effects limiting population growth will probably set in during the latter stages of the 3.0-degrees and 4.5-degrees-C CO2 doubling scenarios. Of chief importance to population restructuring is the timing of temperature increases during specific periods of the year and whether these temperature increases co-occur with fragile| temperature-sensitive early life stages. Our predictions are based on April and May lake-surface temperatures| since during these months whitefish larvae inhabit the lake's surface waters and exhibit substantially faster growth and higher survival when the surface is warm as opposed to cold. In the historical record there exists no evidence that temperature fluctuations during the other ten months of the year influence whitefish recruitment. In a warmer climate| however| mild winters may prevent oxygen enrichment of deep water causing high egg mortalities. Whitefish in shallow lakes (< 20 m deep) may not respond as favorably to global warming. 2157,1991,2,2,POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON PACIFIC-NORTHWEST SPRING CHINOOK SALMON (ONCORHYNCHUS-TSHAWYTSCHA) - AN EXPLORATORY CASE-STUDY,Increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are predicted to raise global temperatures by up to 3-degrees-C over the next one-hundred years| which may have significant effects on natural resources. Even a smaller (2-degrees-C) temperature change may impact one prominent Pacific Northwest natural resource| the spring chinook salmon| Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. A computer model was developed by the Northwest Power Planning Council (NPPC) for use in developing the NPPC salmon enhancement plan for their Fish and Wildlife Program. Using this model| we investigate the impact of global warming on the production of spring chinook salmon in the Yakima subbasin of the Columbia River System. The model simulates current prevailing environmental conditions and the implementation of improvements in salmon habitat planned by the NPPC. The data are then changed to reflect conditions that we infer to have existed between 6|000 and 8|000 years ago| when temperatures were approximately 2-degrees-C warmer than today. When the NPPC computer model is run under these altered conditions| it shows that projected climate change might reduce by half the Yakima River spring chinook salmon production predicted under both current and NPPC-improved conditions. These results strongly support the need for planned improvements in the fishery| since a 50% decline in existing fish populations could decrease spring chinook salmon-and possibly other salmonid populations-beneath levels needed for the survival of the species. More broadly| the results suggest that if future global warming takes a form similar to that of 6|000 years ago| it could have major effects on the salmon population of the Pacific Northwest. Although some races of salmon might have their survival enhanced| others might be harmed. We recognize that all species and races would not be affected in the same way as Yakima River spring chinook| yet global warming is still a matter of concern because many of the Pacific Northwest salmon stocks are already under stress from other causes. A more comprehensive and thorough analysis is urgently needed.
3568,1991,4,4,PRECISION TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE MONITORING 1979-1990,The TIROS-N microwave sounding units (MSU's) have demonstrated an ability to measure globally averaged tropospheric brightness temperature anomalies to a precision of 0.01-degrees-C per month. This has been revealed by five separate overlap periods of concurrently operating morning and afternoon satellites. For MSU channel 2| comparisons to ten years of radiosonde data show that these anomalies are closely related to anomalies in 850-300 mbar thickness| with gridpoint correlations to radiosondes usually ranging between 0.85 and 0.95. The comparisons also suggest that there is no drift or bias in the MSU's (or US-controlled radiosonde system) between 1979-1988 to about 0.01-degrees-C when results are averaged over the Pacific or Caribbean. The non-trivial amount of lower stratospheric influence on MSU channel 2| combined with evidence for cooling in that layer during 1979-1990| suggests the need for removal of this effect from the measurements before interpretation in terms of a "tropospheric" temperature. Because the NOAA-6 MSU channel 3 was not usable for precision climate monitoring due to a sizeable drift| we have performed a retrieval on MSU channel 2 at different view angles to achieve stratospheric cancellation. We present global brightness temperature anomalies of both raw channel 2 and the tropospheric retrieval for the period 1979-1990. It appears that the MSU's (and presumably the advanced microwave sounding units as well) will provide a valuable resource for not only monitoring intraseasonal to interannual climate change| but also for long-term monitoring of potential global warming. 3550,1991,4,3,PREDICTING CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE PACIFIC-NORTHWEST,Determining the nature and extent of greenhouse warming is a difficult problem because the global climate system is complex and influenced by many factors. The authors show that climate warm- shinging is a certainty| but that much uncertainty surrounds predicting how much and when. They present the theoretical basis of the global warming issue| review the effectiveness of computer models in assessing climate change| and discuss the needs for improvements in those models. 3628,1991,3,4,PROJECT PHOENIX - CONFRONTING GLOBAL WARMING WITH SOLAR POWER,Project Phoenix is a design proposal for a combination of projects to combat global warming. In this paper| one of these is explained - a plan for solar power satellites to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. In the plan| the Moon is the prime source of functional and structural materials. Large| 10-gigawatt| double-cone satellites 9.25 kilometers in diameter are constructed in lunar orbit and towed to geosynchronous orbit. 3591,1991,3,3,PROMOTING ENERGY-CONSERVATION IN SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED COMPANIES,To avoid the risk of global warming energy conservation is becoming increasingly important. In small and medium-sized firms there are still many obstacles to using all profitable energy-saving investments and organizational measures. In a recent study detailed technical analyses in eitht industries| as well as in-depth interviews and a broad telephone survey with firms| were carried out. As a conclusion a bundle of activities is suggested to overcome the obstacles. Above all| these include the motivation of company managers| improved energy consultation| the use of the multiplicator function of the association and a stronger engagement of the state and the utilities. 3532,1991,5,3,QUATERNARY AND TERTIARY MICROFOSSILS FROM BENEATH ICE STREAM-B - EVIDENCE FOR A DYNAMIC WEST ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET HISTORY,Some glaciologists have suggested that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet| which is grounded well below sea level| may be susceptible to rapid grounding-line retreat and disintegration. However| until now| geologic evidence of previous ice sheet "collapses" has been lacking. Sediments that have recently been collected from beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet at Ice Stream B contain direct evidence of icc-free conditions in the West Antarctic interior during certain Cenozoic intervals| both prior to and subsequent to the development of grounded ice sheets in West Antarctica. The sediments contain rare but diverse microfossils that represent a wide variety of biostratigraphic ages and depositional environments. Microfossils present include relatively common marine and non-marine diatoms and sponge spicules| plus rare foraminifera| nannofossils| radiolarians| silicoflagellates| chrysophyte cysts and palynomorphs. Clasts of Neogene freshwater diatomite demonstrate the former presence of large lake systems in West Antarctica| possibly as part the Cenozoic West Antarctic rift system. Age-diagnostic marine fossils in the sediment include Late Paleogene calcareous nannofossils and planktonic foraminifera| Miocene marine planktonic diatoms and| significantly| late Pleistocene marine diatoms. Relatively common late Miocene diatoms probably reflect marine deposition prior to initiation of a dominantly glacial phase in West Antarctica. It is likely that Pliocene and early Pleistocene diatoms were deposited in the West Antarctic interior during certain warm interglacials| but these have been eroded and transported toward the continental shelf edge during repeated ice sheet expansions. The late Pleistocene diatoms from Upstream B were deposited in the West Antarctic interior basins during a marine phase| subsequent to an ice sheet collapse| during at least one late Pleistocene interglacial. This discovery provides an indication of the complex history of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet| and calls into question some previous interpretations of ice sheet stability based on paleoceanographic proxy data. The results of this study may lend credence to the concern that global warming and rising sea levels in a "greenhouse" earth could lead to collapse of this marine ice sheet during the current interglacial period. 3554,1991,5,4,RECONSTRUCTION OF PAST CHANGES IN SALINITY AND CLIMATE USING A DIATOM-BASED TRANSFER-FUNCTION,THE prospect of global warming has focused attention on the role of palaeoecology in testing the accuracy and sensitivity of climate-model predictions| in identifying past analogues for future climate change| and in placing model-predicted climate responses in the context of natural climate variability 1|2. Proxy data for climate reconstruction can be derived from many sources| including the palaeolimnological record 3|4. In closed-basin lakes in arid and semi-arid regions| shifts in effective moisture lead to the concentration or dilution of dissolved salts| and these changes in salinity are clearly reflected in the composition of lacustrine diatom assemblages 5-8. Here we refine a previously published 9 diatom-based transfer function for the reconstruction of past changes in salinity of lakes in the northern Great Plains region of North America| and apply the refined transfer function to a late-glacial and Holocene sediment record from Devils Lake| North Dakota. Our results show that there were a number of alternations between fresh and saline conditions during the Holocene and hence demonstrate the utility of the technique in reconstructing past changes in regional climate. 3587,1991,2,4,REDUCED POSTFIRE TREE REGENERATION ALONG A BOREAL FOREST FOREST-TUNDRA TRANSECT IN NORTHERN QUEBEC,The large 1950s fires that burned > 5500 km2 of land across a south-to-north climatic gradient in northern Quebec provide an opportunity to evaluate the role of fire in forest-tundra development on a demographic basis. The tree population density before and almost-equal-to 30 yr after fire was estimated by censusing trees in plots of 400 m2 located in upland and lowland within four representative ecoregions of northern Quebec. The analysis of tree recruitment before and after fire| in 410 randomly selected sites along a transect crossing the upper boreal forest and forest-tundra zones| indicated that wildfires induced substantial depletion of tree populations. Taken as a whole| fires have significantly reduced the density of black spruce populations in forest-tundra uplands| but not in the lowlands. A reduction in tree population density of greater-than-or-equal-to 75% was observed in 22% of upper boreal forest sites| and 45% and 93% of sites located in the forest and shrub subzones| respectively| of the forest-tundra zone. Complete exclusion of tree populations by fire was observed in 43% of upland sites in the northern part of the transect| while complete removal was a rare event in the southern part. Sustained reduction of tree population density after several destructive fires appears as one of the main deforestation processes in the subarctic zone. This leads to the patchy distribution of forest stands and scattered tree populations typical of the forest-tundra biome. Comparisons with paleoecological data suggest that the impact of the 1950s fires contributed to the expansion of the forest tundra into the upper boreal forest. The ecological impact of these fires was probably similar to those fires responsible for development of the forest tundra during the Holocene. It is suggested that the fire-climate interaction should be considered in order to predict the ecological impact of warming climate on high-latitude forest ecosystems. 3537,1991,3,3,REDUCING CARBON-DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM AUSTRALIAN ENERGY USE,Debate about the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere| and fears that it will result in an intensification of the greenhouse effect and global warming| have spurred consideration of sustainable development. It has been claimed that technology to improve energy efficiency already exists that is cost-effective without consideration of the gains from abatement of carbon dioxide emissions. Likewise| changes in the behaviour of households or firms that would result in lower energy use per capita have been predicted as answers to the problem. But the question of implementation is often ignored or assumed away| while it should correctly be costed into the technology or the behavioral changes. This paper attempts to redress this lacuna in the debate| by analysing policy options within a framework of exchange| authority| or persuasion. Carbon taxes and lower interest rates are the recommendation. 3611,1991,2,4,REMOTE-SENSING OF PERMAFROST BY GROUND-PENETRATING RADAR AT 2 AIRPORTS IN ARCTIC CANADA,Over a cycle of seasons| ground-penetrating radar studies were carried out at Inuvik and Rankin Inlet| Northwest Territories. The two airports are part of the Forward Operating Location (FOL) program of the Department of National Defence and have been slated for significant upgrading of runways| taxiways and parking aprons. This provided a good opportunity to investigate the extent of permafrost and its seasonal variation at two locations distributed over a wide geographic area. The study method involved specific and repeated traverses with a Pulse EKKO III ground-penetrating radar unit. The survey was successful in locating massive ice bodies| imaging several existing problem areas beneath runways and mapping the seasonal depth of thaw in permafrost. The study results imply that future monitoring at FOL sites should be continued in light of suggested ground stability problems due to global warming. 3560,1991,2,4,RESEARCH IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ISLAND OF NEW-GUINEA,This paper summarizes the studies| both multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary| that have been carried out in the central cordillera of the island of New Guinea| both in the western sector| Irian Jaya which is part of Indonesia| and in the eastern sector which is the nation of Papua New Guinea. The highland valleys between 1|200 and 2|850 m have been inhabited by relatively large populations since prehistoric times. Early studies| beginning in the 1950s| were mainly ecological and related the people to their environment but more recent work has emphasized change and continuity through time| reconstructing landscapes and climates from prehistoric times| through a brief period of colonialization| to present independence. The landscape| with cultivation dependent on the sweet potato and pig breeding| is a result of environmental| economic| and social factors. Of concern for human occupation of the highlands are severe droughts| killing frosts| and heavy rains| and the possible consequences of global warming. The implications of research in terms of practical management relate to the effectiveness of indigenous land-use systems and their sensitivity to climatic and other variables. 3586,1991,3,2,RESPONSE TO SKEPTICS OF GLOBAL WARMING,The majority of the scientific community involved in climate research is convinced of the reality of a current and future global warming due to the greenhouse effect| a change that must be largely caused by human activities. However| a minority of scientists is still skeptical of the notion that mankind is significantly influencing the climate of the earth| and it therefore argues against taking certain measures to avert this alleged global warming. In recent years the media have given considerable coverage to the statements of these skeptics. Reasons for their statements range from a simple argument that we do not understand the earth's climate system well enough to predict the future| to more complex arguments involving negative feedbacks and changes of solar activity. They question whether the global temperature increase in this century of up to 0.6 K is primarily a result of worldwide burning of fossil fuels. The purpose of this article is to show that the statements of this skeptical school of thought need to be critically analyzed (and in some cases refuted) in the light of current understanding of the planetary system that determines our climate. There is also another school of thought that agrees about the reality of present and future global warming| and claims that this will be beneficial for most of mankind and that it should be encouraged. The policy implications of the latter view are in many respects similar to those of the group that are not convinced that a significant global warming will occur. Both schools of thought argue against taking immediate steps to slow the climate change.
3597,1991,2,3,REVISED PROJECTION OF FUTURE GREENHOUSE WARMING,For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report 1| using a simple climate/ocean model| we made projections of the greenhouse warming to 2100. Projections were made for four greenhouse-gas scenarios| whose radiative effects in 2100| expressed in terms of an equivalent amount of CO2| ranged from 2 to 5.5 times the pre-industrial CO2 concentration. The projected global warming in 2100 for these scenarios| relative to 1990| ranged from 0.62-2.31-degrees-C for the minimum assumed CO2-doubling temperature sensitivity| DELTA-T2x = 1.5-degrees-C| to 1.61-5.15-degrees-C for the maximum sensitivity DELTA-T2x = 4.5-degrees-C. Here we broaden these projections to include a recently suggested lower sensitivity| DELTA-T2x = 0.5-degrees-C. We also revise all projections by prescribing| using the results of our analysis of simulations by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model| a lower value for a key parameter of the simple ocean model| II| which indicates the warming of the polar ocean relative to the warming of the non-polar ocean. We find that| for any value of DELTA-T2x| the atmospheric temperature increases more rapidly with time as a consequence of the reduction in II. We also find that a delay of ten years in initiating a 20-year transition from the IPCC 'business-as-usual' scenario to any other IPCC scenario has only a small effect on the projected warming in 2100| regardless of the value of DELTA-T2x. This indicates that the penalty for a 10-year delay is small. 3517,1991,4,3,SEA-LEVEL AS AN INDICATOR OF CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE,This paper discusses the difficulties in predicting future global sea level rise. It also examines the problems involved in determining a reliable global sea level trend over the past century from historical water level records and| specifically| whether the apparent recent rise can be attributed to global warming due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases. The paper also discusses the importance of interannual-to-decadal sea level variation and its role in helping to understand climate variations such as El Nino Southern Oscillation and the accompanying global effects via teleconnection.
3614,1991,2,3,SENSITIVITY OF OXIDANT CONCENTRATIONS ON CHANGES IN UV-RADIATION AND TEMPERATURE,Depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer could result in increasing u.v. radiation at ground level. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases could result in increasing temperature. The response of boundary layer chemistry on increases in energy| in the form of increasing surface temperature or increasing u.v. radiation| will be an increased photochemical reactivity. In this paper we present the results of a model study on the sensitivity of episodic and long-term averaged ozone and oxidant (Ox| sum of O3 and NO2) concentrations on changes in temperature and u.v. radiation. Ground level ozone and oxidant concentrations are calculated for summer 1989 by means of a Lagrangian long-range transport model for a receptor point in the central part of The Netherlands. For a 10% decrease in ozone column density and a 10% increase in surface temperature (on average DELTA-t = 1.6-degrees-C) the increase in O3 and O(x) 98 percentile value is about 2.7%. The additional ozone production will increase the number of exceedences of threshold values; this may lead to greater human exposures during episodes. The calculations for the reference emission situation resulted for the period 1 May-1 October 1989 (total 3672 h) in 56 observations of 1-h averaged O3 concentrations which exceed the level of 75 ppb; in one case the O3 concentration exceeds 100 ppb. In the sensitivity calculations with increased temperature and reduced ozone column these numbers increase to 72 h (+29%) and 6 h (+600%)| respectively. A possible increase in natural VOC emissions from forests due to a global warming may further enhance the number of exceedences. 3627,1991,3,2,SOLAR POWER SATELLITES - ENERGY-SOURCE FOR THE GREENHOUSE CENTURY,Energy is needed to produce wealth| and an increasing world population will need increasing amounts of energy to improve its standard of living. Through the use of a carbon cycle model| it is shown that continued reliance on fossil fuels will cause a global greenhouse warming. An energy-CO2-economics model is used to project future demand for fossil-fuel-generated energy. When this demand is compared with the fossil fuel use that is permissible if a global warming is to be avoided| a shortfall in energy becomes evident. Terrestrial photovoltaics| nuclear fission| nuclear fusion| and the solar power satellite (SPS) are examined as means of making up this energy shortfall. On comparing these technologies| the SPS appears to be the most feasible means of providing the required energy and preventing a global warming. Laser| 2.45 GHz| and 35 GHz SPS technologies are intercompared| and results indicate that the 2.45 GHz technology remains the most feasible SPS option. 2133,1991,2,4,SOME CONSEQUENCES OF LONG-TERM HUMAN IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS,Regional- and global-scale environmental problems potentially can affect North and South Temperate Zone ecosystems differently because of regional differences in population density and growth| and use of resources. Consideration is given to global climate change and various components of global and regional| environmental change| including atmospheric ozone| acid rain| toxic metals and pesticides| eutrophication| and erosion. Acid rain is a serious environmental problem in industrialized and urbanized regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Long-term data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire| USA| provide a temporal dimension for this problem. Currently atmospheric deposition of sulfur in the northeastern United States exceeds by three to six times limits established to protect sensitive ecological systems| whereas in southern Chile current atmospheric deposition of sulfur is less than these acceptable limits. Developed| and particularly developing| countries throughout the world face serious questions of resource management as human populations increase| and if regional- and global-scale pollution were to increase accordingly.
3579,1991,4,4,SOURCES AND SINKS OF METHANE IN SWEDEN,Sources of methane in Sweden emit about 3.0 Tg . yr-1 to the atmosphere| corresponding to about 0.6% of the estimated global flux. Net flux| estimated by deducting amounts taken up by boreal forest soils could be about 10% lower. Wetlands are by far the largest source (2.2 Tg . yr-1| 73% of total followed in decreasing order by landfills (0.34 Tg.yr-1| 11%)| coastal areas and freshwater bodies (0.31 Tg . yr-1| 10%) animal and manure (0.14 Tg . yr-1| 5%) and combustion processes and leakage of natural gas (0.03 Tg . yr-1| 1%). Man-made wetland disturbances associated with drainage have reduced methane emissions by about 0.29 Tg . yr-1. Human activities have led to moderate increases in methane emissions from freshwater bodies and coastal waters. Other sources of methane emissions are almost exclusively of anthropogenic origin. The influence of global warming on the methane fluxes is briefly discussed. 3549,1991,2,3,SOUTH-AFRICAN SEA-LEVEL MEASUREMENTS IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT OF SEA-LEVEL RISE,Examination of historical instrument records of temperature and sea level in tectonically stable areas around the world have shown a global warming of about 0.5-degrees-C and a eustatic rise in sea level of between 10 mm and 15 mm/decade over the last century. Sea-level measurements around South Africa are available only from 1959 onwards and their analyses show trends comparable with global trends of sea-level rise. The best long tide gauge record is from Port Nolloth and shows a rise in relative sea level over the period 1960 to 1988 of 12.3 mm/decade at the 95% confidence level. Comparison with an Argentinian relative sea-level curve indicates some basin-wide coherence in water levels on approximately a 5-year time scale. South African sea surface temperatures (SST) also show historical increases comparable with other global SST estimates. On the basis of agreement between historical South African and globally estimated trends| predictions of future sea-level rise around South Africa are adopted from globally modelled studies. Sea level in South Africa is expected to rise by approximately 20 cm within the next 40 years and may increase further to up to 100 cm by the end of the next century. The rate of increase of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases is shown to be the best indicator of continued sea-level rise. 3596,1991,4,3,SOUTHERN-HEMISPHERE CLIMATE SCENARIOS,There is little doubt that between now and 2050 Earth faces global warming and other changes in climate unprecedented in magnitude since the end of the last glaciation some 10 000 years ago. Predicting the exact nature of that change is| however| difficult. Arguments from palaeoclimatic analogues| comparisons of recent warm versus cool years| physical reasoning and computer simulations are all subject to error and uncertainty. This is more so in the relatively less well understood climate system of the Southern Hemisphere| and at the local and regional scale| than in the Northern Hemisphere and at a zonally averaged scale. Nevertheless some broad features can be described with some confidence| and we can at least identify some of the major uncertainties and processes which we need to understand better. Increased poleward penetration of the subtropical monsoonal regimes is likely| and tropical cyclones may also occur at higher latitudes than at present. The role of the oceans| especially at high southern latitudes and in the tropics| and effects which may change with time as greenhouse gas concentrations gradually increase ('transient' effects) are particularly important and uncertain in the Southern Hemisphere. We know enough to declare the urgency of slowing down and eventually limiting the greenhouse effect. However| more research is needed to guide decision makers and planners at the local and regional level as they try to cope with those climatic changes which are unavoidable. Regional cooperation is essential to make the best use of the research and planning facilities available. 2160,1991,2,4,TEMPERATURE EFFECT ON GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF COTTON DURING THE FRUITING PERIOD,Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) requires warm days and relatively warm nights for optimum growth and development. However| in many areas of the cotton belt| sub- and super-optimal temperatures frequently occur| both early and late in the season| resulting in altered growth and development. The purpose of this research was to quantify plant responses to temperature| so that these responses could be incorporated into plant growth models used to manage cotton crops. Plants| initially grown out of doors in pots| were moved into sunlit| temperature-controlled growth chambers 5 d prior to initial bloom. Growth and development were studied in 20/10| 25/15| 30/20| 35/25| and 40/30-degrees-C day/night temperature regimes from initial bloom. Temperature significantly affected phenology| leaf expansion| internode elongation| biomass production and the partitioning of assimilates to different plant parts. Optimum temperature for biomass production was 30/20-degrees-C| with 40 and 50% less biomass at 20/10 and 40/30-degrees-C| respectively. By 49 d after initial bloom| 13| 15 and 43% of the biomass had been partitioned to bolls and squares at 20/10| 25/15 and 30/20-degrees-C| respectively| reflecting to some extent slower development at the temperatures lower than 30/20-degrees-C. Above 30/20-degrees-C| most of the squares and bolls were aborted. The growth of the main-stem and its successive leaves at 30/20-degrees-C was rapid initially| but was restricted later due to competition with bolls for available carbohydrates. The quantification of growth and developmental rates over a wider range of temperatures will enable us to predict crop performance if temperature increases as a result of global climate change.
3601,1991,3,3,THE CONFLICT OVER GLOBAL WARMING - THE APPLICATION OF SCIENTIFIC-RESEARCH TO POLICY CHOICES,Sophisticated computer models have been employed by the United Nations Environment Programme's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess past variations of world climate and to project possible trends over the next century. Attention has focused on the growing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. Critics in scientific and policy professions hold that simulation models are not yet adequate to guide policy decisions. Many western governments dissent from this judgment and insist that a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions should be achieved within 15 years and that remedial policies must be adopted to prevent catastrophic climate change. The proposed remedies range from saving tropical rain forests to forced conservation of energy or taxation of fossil-fuel combustion. A consensus is emerging in the scientific community to endorse a 'no regrets' policy that involves buying various kinds of 'insurance' against future global warming. 2147,1991,2,4,THE ECONOMIC-IMPACT OF CROP LOSSES - A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH,The impact of crop losses on the U.S. economy are analyzed using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. In doing so| concerns about widespread crop losses due to a global climate change or environmental event are addressed. The CGE approach allows for analysis of the interactions between supply and demand within agricultural markets as well as between these markets and the rest of the economy. The results suggest that policy responses which allow free market pricing signals to determine production mitigate the effects of an event that approximates the drought of 1988.
3565,1991,2,4,THE EFFECT OF POTENTIAL CLIMATIC CHANGES ON THE GEOGRAPHICAL-DISTRIBUTION OF THE PLANT-PARASITIC NEMATODES XIPHINEMA AND LONGIDORUS IN EUROPE,The data collected during the European Plant-Parasitic Nematode Survey which allows relatively detailed maps of the geographical distribution of virus-vector nematodes to be produced are used to analyse the relationship between the distribution of Longidorus elongatus| L. leptocephalus| L. macrosoma and Xiphinema diversicaudatum and the July soil isotherm in Great Britain and Europe. Results indicate a close association between temperature and nematode distribution and allow minimum| maximum and optimum developmental temperatures to be calculated. Predicted future climatic changes and in particular global warming show that nematode problems in northern Europe could intensify by an increase of the existing nematode populations and by the spread of nematodes from the south| but the rate at which this spread occurs is likely to be slow and dependent upon man's activities. 3575,1991,5,3,THE MIDCRETACEOUS SUPER PLUME| CARBON-DIOXIDE| AND GLOBAL WARMING,Carbon-dioxide releases associated with a mid-Cretaceous super plume and the emplacement of the Ontong-Java Plateau have been suggested as a principal cause of the mid-Cretaceous global warming. We developed a carbonate-silicate cycle model to quantify the possible climatic effects of these CO2 releases| utilizing four different formulations for the rate of silicate-rock weathering as a function of atmospheric CO2. We find that CO2 emissions resulting from super-plume tectonics could have produced atmospheric CO2 levels from 3.7 to 14.7 times the modern pre-industrial value of 285 ppm. Based on the temperature sensitivity to CO2 increases used in the weathering-rate formulations| this would cause a global warming of from 2.8 to 7.7-degrees-C over today's global mean temperature. Altered continental positions and higher sea level may have been contributed about 4.8-degrees-C to mid-Cretaceous warming. Thus| the combined effects of paleogeographic changes and super-plume related CO2 emissions could be in the range of 7.6 to 12.5-degrees-C| within the 6 to 14-degrees-C range previously estimated for mid-Cretaceous warming. CO2 releases from oceanic plateaus alone are unlikely to have been directly responsible for more than 20% of the mid-Cretaceous increase in atmospheric CO2. 3548,1991,2,3,THE POSSIBLE DYNAMIC-RESPONSE OF NORTHERN FORESTS TO GLOBAL WARMING,Increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere are expected to produce maximum warming in high latitudes| displacing the potential boreal forest zone of the northern hemisphere far to the north. We analyse the implications of this shift for forest composition and biomass dynamics across the present-day boreonemoral zone in Scandinavia| using a forest succession model that includes a generalized disturbance regime and realistic climatic effects on species' regeneration and growth. Temperature increases in the range of 2-4 K in summer and 5-6 K in winter| typical of simulated CO2 doubling effects| force the boreonemoral zone > 1000 km northward from central Sweden where dominance passes from Picea (spruce) to Fagus (beech)| Quercus (oak) and Pinus (pine) over 150-200 years. Simulated increases of 175-250 mm in annual precipitation are required to counteract drought| which would otherwise reduce forest biomass and increase the representation of the more drought-tolerant species. The simulated forest dynamics are the net result of individualistic responses of species to different aspects of climate| modulated by successional processes that are on the same time scale as human impacts on climate. 2163,1991,2,3,THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE GREAT-LAKES,Global climate change could have a significant impact on the Great Lakes. A number of studies of the potential effects of climate change on the Great Lakes were commissioned by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency| using common scenarios of global warming derived mainly from general circulation models. These studies found that a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere could eventually lower Great Lakes water levels by 0.5 to 2.5m; reduce ice cover by 1 to 2 1/2 months; lengthen shipping seasons while increasing shipping and dredging costs; reduce dissolved oxygen levels in shallow lake basins; and increase fish productivity. Measures should be taken in the near future to anticipate many of these impacts and mitigate their effects or avoid costly political issues.
3602,1991,3,4,THE ROLE OF PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN CO2 REDUCTION STRATEGIES,The implications of CO2 reductions are nowhere more profound than in the transport sector. In the light of the 60% cut in emissions recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| transport must find ways of using less fossil fuel. Car fuel economy has considerable short-term potential for saving energy| but requires incentives and regulations. Alternative fuels| if selected carefully| can also reduce greenhouse emissions. But CO2 savings may be out-stripped by projected increases in traffic| and restrictions are needed to curb this growth. CO2 abatement measures will be ineffective in isolation| and a successful strategy will contain a variety of approaches| encompassing both short- and long-term policies. 3631,1991,3,3,THE UNITED-STATES-DEPARTMENT-OF-ENERGY BIOFUELS RESEARCH-PROGRAM,Biomass encompasses agricultural and forestry residues| woody and herbaceous energy crops| municipal solid waste| and underutilized traditional forests. The contribution of biomass to the nation's energy supply stands at 3.1 quads per year and is continuing to grow. Increasing our use of fuels derived from biomass can improve air quality| mitigate global warming| reduce dependency on foreign oil imports| and strengthen a weak farm economy. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Biofuels and Municipal Waste Technology Program has focused mainly on liquid fuels such as ethanol| methanol| biocrude-derived gasoline| and plant-oil-derived diesel fuel| with some emphasis on gaseous fuels such as biogas. Researchers have improved the economics of the wood to ethanol process to approximately $1.35/gal by developing a method to ferment ethanol from the xylose fraction of wood with greater than 70% efficiency. The program goal of $0.60/gal would provide ethanol at a competitive cost without tax credits. DOE has increased the emphasis on cooperative ventures with industry and is developing plans for a cost-shared project to scale up gasification technologies for both syngas and methanol fuel production testing. Development of successful methods for cleaning and conditioning the raw syngas from the gasifier is expected to reduce methanol costs from $0.75/gal to $0.55/gal. Scientists have made substantial progress in testing process concepts for hydrotreating and zeolite catalyst upgrading of pyrolysis oils to produce gasoline. The cost of gasoline from biomass by this process is currently projected at $1.60/gal with a goal of $0.85/gal. With adequate research and development investments| biofuels can have a much greater impact on the liquid transportation fuels sector in the future| even without legislation or federal regulations to stimulate the industry. Therefore| biofuels costs are projected to be competitive with oil costs at $25-$30/bbl within the next 5-10 years; however| the development time frame depends on the research and development investment level. 2152,1991,3,4,THE USE OF ANALOGIES IN FORECASTING ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIETAL RESPONSES TO GLOBAL WARMING,Until computer modeling systems are able to forecast the regional impacts of a global climate change| scientists and nonscientists alike will find analogies useful for understanding how ecosystems and societies might respond to such change. But analogies must be used with care lest they be misapplied to justify a particular policy agenda.
3557,1991,2,4,THE VIGIL NETWORK - A MEANS OF OBSERVING LANDSCAPE CHANGE IN DRAINAGE BASINS,Long-term monitoring of geomorphic| hydrological| and biological characteristics of landscapes provides an effective means of relating observed change to possible causes of the change. Identification of changes in basin characteristics| especially in arid areas where the response to altered climate or land use is generally rapid and readily apparent| might provide the initial direct indications that factors such as global warming and cultural impacts have affected the environment. The Vigil Network provides an opportunity for earth and life scientists to participate in a systematic monitoring effort to detect landscape changes over time| and to relate such changes to possible causes. The Vigil Network is an ever-increasing group of sites and basins used to monitor landscape features with as much as 50 years of documented geomorphic and related observations. 3580,1991,2,4,THERMAL RESPONSE OF THE ACTIVE LAYER TO CLIMATIC WARMING IN A PERMAFROST ENVIRONMENT,Global warming is occurring| the only question is what will be the magnitude of the temperature change and the temporal and spatial distribution? Existing models predict that the greatest change from present climatic conditions will happen in the polar regions. In the Arctic| continuous permafrost exists and climatic warming could have severe consequences. In this paper the consequences of global warming on the active layer are examined. Soil temperature data were collected over a four-year period at a field site near Toolik Lake| Alaska. A finite-element| two-dimensional| heat conduction model with phase change was used to predict soil temperatures at the site. After verification that the model could be used with confidence to predict the soil thermal regime| various climatic warming scenarios were used as inputs to estimate the thermal response for the next fifty years. The impact of climatic warming on the thickness of the active layer is reported. 3559,1991,2,4,TIDAL-CREEK EXTENSION AND SALTWATER INTRUSION IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA,Low-lying Holocene coastal plains supporting freshwater wetlands are often close to or even below the level reached by the highest tides. The vulnerability of such freshwater systems to saltwater intrusion will increase should the sea level rise as a consequence of global warming. In areas with a large tidal range| one of the main processes inducing a reversion to saltwater influence is likely to be the rapid extension of tidal-creek systems. This is demonstrated with an example from the coastal plains of the Mary River in northern Australia| where tidal-creek systems have extended more than 30 km inland in 50 years| invading freshwater wetlands and destroying associated vegetation over an area of at least 17 000 ha. Networks have grown at an exponential rate through a combination of headward extension along main channels and tributary development. Large tidal range| very small elevational differences over the plains| the presence of incompletely infilled paleochannels| and uncontrolled feral buffalo have been major factors contributing to the rapid rate of expansion. 3564,1991,4,3,TIME| FREQUENCY AND SPACE GEODESY - IMPACT ON THE STUDY OF CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE,The science of time and frequency metrology has enabled the development of space geodetic systems that are being applied to the high accuracy tracking of new space-based instruments that have begun one of the most important investigations of the Earth ever undertaken. The accumulation of anthrogenic gases in the Earth's atmosphere| especially carbon dioxide| is likely to lead to global atmospheric warming. Warming may alter atmospheric circulation| rainfall patterns| and the melting of polar ice caps| which will cause sea level rise and pose a threat to our survival unprecedented in all of recorded history. These new instrument sets and methodologies have been designed to be appropriate for many years to decades of operation in order to measure the open ocean circulation and sea level as an indicator of global warming and will be a vital means for assessing the effectiveness of future remedial actions. The question is whether sea level is actually rising| and if so| at what rate? There are a wide variety competing instrument related artifacts and "geophysical signals" in the land and ocean data| all of which must be measured| modeled and removed before sea level signal can be completely distinguished. The issues of time and frequency are tied into all of these space geodetic techniques| from the Cesium and Rubidium oscillators aboard Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites| to the epoch time and time interval measurements of satellite laser ranging (SLR) and hydrogen maser references used in very long baseline interferometry (VLBI). Without the developments of these time and frequency technologies| none of these space geodetic methods would be possible. 3528,1991,3,3,TOWARD CLIMATE CONVENTIONS SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR A CLIMATIC PROTECTION POLICY,The 1980s have seen an unprecedented growth in awareness of the problem of climatic change. The 1990s will be the critical decade during which collective concern must be turned into concerted action through global Climate Conventions and related Protocols. This article proposes such a strategy with the following elements: setting of a warming ceiling and a rate of change per decade; development of emission scenarios which come close to the set limits using climate modeling; allocation of emission shares by nation; assessment of emission reduction potential by gas| source| measure and nation; development of national emission reduction plans; agreement| implementation and supervision of such plans; establishment of a climate fund. This study addresses the first element of the strategy by making extensive use of model-based climate scenario analysis. The results of this analysis will help identify emission reduction measures which could limit the mean global surface warming to approximately 2 K in 2100 over the preindustrial level and restrict the average rate of global warming to about 0.1 K per decade. The effectiveness of these scenarios is assessed using a one dimensional (1-D) climate model from 1860 to 2100. The results of this research will help widen the scope for a more flexible climate protection policy. 3578,1991,4,3,UPPER LIMIT FOR SEA ICE ALBEDO FEEDBACK CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING,Two versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM) are used to calculate the increase in solar energy absorbed by the Earth-atmosphere system if all sea ice on the planet were to melt. The increase in solar energy is determined at several time points in the seasonal cycle by brief integrations of the models with the surface albedo of sea ice changed to that of open ocean; temperature| cloudiness| and other climate parameters are unchanged during the short integrations| so that our results isolate the climatic effect of sea ice albedo changes in the absence of other processes and feedbacks. (In particular| we do not include the effects of removing the insulation between ocean underneath sea ice and the atmosphere above it.) We find that the globally and annually averaged enhancement of absorbed solar flux due to removal of sea ice is 2-3 W m-2; a simple calculation indicates that most of the difference between model versions is due to differences in the surface albedo of sea ice. About half the albedo reduction at the surface is masked at the top of the atmosphere by clouds| even though the CCM versions we use tend to underestimate cloudiness. Our upper limit is significant compared to the direct radiative forcing of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide| but it suggests that for greenhouse gas warming equivalent to doubling of CO2 or greater| the sea ice albedo feedback is likely to be smaller than from water vapor and potentially that from clouds. 3539,1991,2,4,UPPER TEMPERATURE LIMITS FOR TROUT IN NEW-ZEALAND AND CLIMATE CHANGE,The significance of temperature in determining the northernmost limit of trout in New Zealand is discussed| and the river temperature records available suggest that high winter temperatures| rather than high summer temperatures are involved. The predicted climate changes consequent on increased concentrations of atmospheric gases| are used to predict changes in trout distribution. A 1.5-degrees-C increase is likely to result in a contraction of the distribution of brown trout in northern areas| but the effects elsewhere on brown trout would be limited. A 3-degrees-C increase is likely to eliminate both species from northern latitudes| while heat stress could alter distributions of both species throughout the country. The possibilities of genetic responses to the changes are discussed. 3562,1991,4,4,USE OF COSMOGENIC S-35 TO DETERMINE THE RATES OF REMOVAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SO2,GASEOUS sulphur dioxide supplied to the atmosphere is removed principally by three processes: direct scavenging in precipitation| oxidation to aerosol sulphate with subsequent deposition by vertical and horizontal precipitation| and 'dry' deposition| primarily on the surface of vegetation. The rates of these removal processes| which vary with environmental conditions| must be known in order to understand the fate of SO2 and the concentration and distribution of aerosol sulphate 1-3. The latter is thought to play a part in the heat balance of the lower troposphere 4| and is thus relevant to the issue of global warming. Approaches to this problem using field observations 5|6 have not given consistent or uncontested results. We report here the use of cosmogenic S-35 (half-life 87.2 days) as a way of determining the time constants for oxidation| in-cloud scavenging and aerosol deposition. Our method involves determining S-35 levels in gaseous SO2| aerosol sulphate and precipitation. If these seasonally and regionally variable time constants can be applied to terrestrially produced SO2| S-35 measurements could provide an independent method for studying the fate Of SO2 in the atmosphere as a function of time and place. 2165,1991,2,3,VEGETATION AND WILDLAND FIRE - IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,Climate| vegetation| and fire are interrelated so that any change in one will affect the others. Increases in greenhouse gases| especially carbon dioxide| are expected to increase average surface temperatures and alter precipitation patterns. These changes will alter numerous biochemical processes of vegetative communities. Changes in growth rates| carbon allocation patterns| nutrient cycling| and competitive interactions will lead to direct changes in the structure and species composition of many plant communities. Major shifts in vegetation zones will occur in many regions. Climate change will affect fire potential by influencing the frequency and severity of weather favorable for fire. Climate-driven changes in the structure and composition of plant communities will also affect fire potential by altering the physical and chemical properties of fuels. Changes in timing and severity of fire will modify the rate at which communities respond to climate change. This in turn will alter fuel properties| further modifying fire potential. Changes in fire regimes will directly affect the chemistry of the atmosphere by modifying vegetation and emitting gases and particulate matter. The expected rate and magnitude of these changes raises questions for the continued integrity| vitality| and stability of current ecosystems.
2158,1991,3,4,WHAT ROLE CAN NUCLEAR-POWER PLAY IN MITIGATING GLOBAL WARMING,Although nuclear energy is a low CO2 energy system| it is not a very efficient tool for rapidly reducing carbon emissions. Global climate change does not justify a considerably increased global nuclear programme for the next two to three decades. Even if for other political or socioeconomic reasons such an intensive global nuclear programme were initiated| its impact on CO2 emissions would be only marginal. This is true irrespective of the costs and feasibilities of alternative emission reduction strategies| such as energy efficiency measures| or the availability of other low CO2 energy supplies.
3705,1992,4,3,A COMPARISON OF AGGREGATE ENERGY DEMAND MODELS FOR GLOBAL WARMING POLICY ANALYSES,This paper compares the treatment of the demand for all fuels (aggregate energy) in 11 models that are being used for analysing the economic and energy-sector impacts of global warming policy. Some models explicitly consider the linkages between the economy and the energy sector (energy-economy models)| while others focus on the energy sector in more detail (energy models). The paper discusses demand model inputs and outputs| time horizon| regional and sectoral disaggregation| energy consumer behaviour| energy using capital stock and energy efficiency improvements| and incorporating uncertainty. 2191,1992,5,4,A DETAILED CHRONOLOGY OF THE AUSTRALASIAN IMPACT EVENT| THE BRUNHES-MATUYAMA GEOMAGNETIC POLARITY REVERSAL| AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,A mechanism had been recently proposed to show how an impact event can trigger a geomagnetic polarity reversal by means of rapid climate cooling. We test the proposed mechanism by examining the record from two high sedimentation rate (8-11 cm/kyr) deep-sea sediment cores (ODP Sites 767 and 769) from marginal seas of the Indonesian archipelago| which record the Australasian impact with well-defined microtektite layers| the Brunhes-Matuyama polarity reversal with strong and stable remanent magnetizations| and global climate with oxygen isotope variations in planktonic foraminifera. Both ODP cores show the impact to have preceded the reversal of magnetic field directions by about 12 kyr. Both records indicate that the field intensity was increasing near the time of impact and that it continued to increase for about 4 kyr afterwards. Furthermore| the oxygen isotope record available from sediments at ODP Site 769 shows no indication of discernible climate cooling following the impact: the microtektite event occurred in the later part of glacial Stage 20 and was followed by a smooth warming trend to interglacial Stage 19. Thus the detailed chronology does not support the previously proposed model which would predict that a decrease in geomagnetic field intensity resulted from a minor glaciation following the impact event. We conclude that the evidence for a causal link between impacts and geomagnetic reversals remains insufficient to demonstrate a physical connection.
2195,1992,4,4,A DETERMINISTIC APPROACH TO THE VALIDATION OF HISTORICAL DAILY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA FROM THE COOPERATIVE NETWORK,It is widely known that the TD3200 (Summary of the Day Cooperative Network) database held by the National Climatic Data Center contains tens of thousands of erroneous daily values resulting from data-entry| data-recording| and data-reformatting errors. TD3200 serves as a major baseline dataset for detecting global climate change. It is of paramount importance to the climate community that these data be as error-free as possible. Many of these errors are systematic in nature. If a deterministic approach is taken| using empirically developed criteria| many if not most of these errors can be corrected or removed. A computer program utilizing Backus Normal Form structure design and a series of chain-linked tests in the form of encoded rules has been developed as a means of modeling the human subjective process of inductive data review. This objective automated correction process has proven extremely effective. A manual review and validation of 138 stations of a 1300-station subset of TD3200 data closely matched the automated correction process. Applications of this technique are expected to be utilized in the production of a nearly error-free TD3200 dataset.
3716,1992,3,4,A GEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE ON GLOBAL WARMING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CARBON-DIOXIDE REMOVAL AS CALCIUM-CARBONATE MINERAL,Nature removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis| and by forming carbonate minerals. Following Nature's example| carbon dioxide should not be regarded as a waste| but as a resource from which useful products can be made. Highly concentrated| calcium-rich brines are commonly found associated with subsurface salt deposits. By bringing together the energy and chemical industries| it may be possible to use these brines to lock up carbon dioxide| while at the same time producing calcium carbonate| hydrochloric acid and a variety of other chemical-industrial commodities. 2194,1992,4,4,A GLOBAL INVENTORY OF VOLATILE ORGANIC-COMPOUND EMISSIONS FROM ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES,As part of an effort to assess the potential impacts associated with global climate change| the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development is supporting global atmospheric chemistry research by developing global scale estimates of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions (excluding methane). Atmospheric chemistry models require| as one input| an emissions inventory of VOCs. Consequently| a global inventory of anthropogenic VOC emissions has been developed. The inventory includes VOC estimates for seven classes of VOCs: paraffins| olefins| aromatics (benzene| toluene| xylene)| formaldehyde| other aldehydes| other aromatics| and marginally reactive compounds. These classes represent general classes of VOC compounds which possess different chemical reactivities in the atmosphere| The technical approach used to develop this inventory involved four major steps. The first step was to identify the major anthropogenic sources of VOC emissions in the United States and to group these sources into 28 general source groups. Source groups were developed to represent general categories such as "sources associated with oil and natural gas production" and more specific categories such as savanna burning. Emission factors for these source groups were then developed using different techniques and data bases. For example| emission factors for oil and natural gas production were estimated by dividing the United States' emissions from oil and gas production operations by the amount of oil and natural gas produced in the United States. Multiplication of these emission factors by production/consumption statistics for other countries yielded global VOC emission estimates for specific source groups within those countries. The final step in development of the VOC inventory was to distribute emissions into 10-degrees by 10-degrees grid cells using detailed maps of population and industrial activity. The results of this study show total global anthropogenic VOC emissions of about 110|000 Gg/yr. This estimate is about 10% lower than global VOC inventories developed by other researchers. The study identifies the United States as the largest emitter (21% of the total global VOC)| followed by the (former) USSR| China| India| and Japan. Globally| fuel wood combustion and savanna burning were among the largest VOC emission sources| accounting for over 35% of the total global VOC emissions. The production and use of gasoline| refuse disposal activities| and organic chemical and rubber manufacturing were also found Lo be significant sources of VOC emissions.
3643,1992,4,4,A MODEL-BASED APPROACH TO THE CALCULATION OF GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS (GWP),The Global Warming Potential (GWP) of greenhouse gas emissions can be defined as a greenhouse pendant to the Ozone Depleting Potential (ODP). Global Warming Potentials are calculated for the most important greenhouse gases (CO2| CH4| CO| N2O| CFC-11| CFC-12| CFC-13| CFC-14| CFC-113| CFC-114| CFC-115| CFC-116| CF3Br| CCl4| CH3CCl3| and HCFC-22) and eight potential CFC substitutes using the integrated climate assessment model IMAGE. Two different methods are presented for the calculation of GWP values using IMAGE: one that generates equivalent pulses for all greenhouse gases| and an iterative trace-back method which calculates the different pulses required to achieve an identical global temperature increase for all greenhouse gases. In addition the influence of the emission scenario used is tested when determining GWPs; it is demonstrated that GWPs are indeed scenario-dependent| so the choice of the underlying emission scenario is important. Finally| the GWPs calculated using these methods are compared with GWPs that have been published previously. It appears that our GWP estimates are substantially higher than the IPCC estimates| which can be explained by the fact that our carbon cycle model has a balanced global carbon budget. This results in lower projections of future atmospheric carbon dioxide compared with the IPCC projections. 3774,1992,4,3,A MODELING STUDY OF THE NORTH-ATLANTIC WITH EMPHASIS ON THE GREENLAND-ICELAND-NORWEGIAN SEA,This essay presents the results of a modeling study that addresses the circulation and convection of ocean currents. A possible change in the global climate due to human-induced increase of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases is one of the major environmental challenges in our time. In order to get more insight into this problem| one needs to better understand the various components of the climate system and how they interact. Due to the large heat capacity of the global ocean| the magnitude| delay| and regional distribution of a potential global warming are to a large extent determined by exchanges of heat between the upper ocean and the world's deep ocean. An important process in this regard is deep water formation due to convection. The North Atlantic and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea are particularly important regions for this process. Major parts of the circulation in this area are simulated by a coupled ke-ocean model that also includes the entire Arctic Ocean. 3660,1992,2,4,A NEW SUBSPECIES OF CHAMAEA-FASCIATA (WRENTIT) FROM OREGON (AVES| TIMALIINAE),Geographic variation in plumage color of Chamaea fasciata (Wrentit) from northern California and southern Oregon is related to climate. A new subspecies| Chamaea fasciata margra| is described from a disjunct population of southern interior Oregon. Colonization of C. fasciata in interior Oregon was perhaps from birds crossing coniferous forests via isolated balds of Ceonothus. Recent increases of Wrentits in interior Oregon may be in response to habitat alterations (deforestation| fires) and concurrent global warming. 3723,1992,3,4,A TECHNOLOGY FOR REDUCTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS FROM THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR,By sequestering byproduct carbon and replacing petroleum fuels with biomass-derived methanol| the Hydrocarb process can nullify the net effect of CO2 emissions from motor vehicles. This paper gives a preliminary assessment of the process which indicates that substantially more fuel energy could be produced--and at lower cost--than other current options for mitigating CO2 from mobile sources. The incremental cost of eliminating net CO2 emissions is estimated at $0.05 per gallon (3.78 liters) of gasoline displaced by methanol. About 80 percent reduction should be achievable at no incremental cost. 3685,1992,4,4,ABSORPTION-COEFFICIENTS OF CFC-11 AND CFC-12 NEEDED FOR ATMOSPHERIC REMOTE-SENSING AND GLOBAL WARMING STUDIES,Spectral absorption coefficients (or absorption cross-sections) k(v) (cm-1 atm-1) of CFC-11 and CFC-12 have been measured in the spectral region (8-12-mu-m) known as the atmospheric window. Data obtained with a grating spectrometer| which has wide spectral coverage and adequate spectral resolution (0.4 cm-1)| are compared with the so-called NCAR cross-sections that have recently been introduced into the HITRAN Tape. We have also performed measurements| at various temperature-pressure combinations which are chosen to represent tangent heights (as in solar-occultation experiments) or layers in the atmosphere| of the k(v) of CFC-12 in the 921 and 923 cm-1 Q-branches and at 924.1| 927.6| 931.6 93 5.0 and 1106 cm-1 with the Doppler-limited spectral resolution (approximately 10(-4) cm-1) of a tunable-diode laser spectrometer. The latter are especially well suited for atmospheric remote sensing| while the grating spectra are useful in global warming studies. The effects of temperature and pressure on the spectral absorption coefficients are discussed. 2170,1992,2,4,ACCRETION RATES OF LOW INTERTIDAL SALT MARSHES IN THE PACIFIC-NORTHWEST,Salt-marsh accretion rate was investigated at sites that spanned a gradient in relative rate of sea-level rise in Washington and Oregon. Mean accretion rate over all sites was 3.6 mm yr-1 (95% CI = 2.4 to 4.8 mm yr-1)| which exceeded present mean sea-level-rise rate (1.3 mm yr-1; sd = 0.6). However| a mean rise rate of 5.5 mm yr-1 (sd = 1.9) predicted by a moderate sea-level-change scenario to occur by the year 2050 exceeds mean accretion rate. Marshes with adequate sediment input seemed to have the capacity to keep pace with an increased sea-level-rise rate. Lowest accretion rates were recorded at sites with the least sediment supply. Accretion rate showed a weak negative correlation with sediment organic matter (measured as volatile solids) and marsh standing stock. The data suggest that moderate and high rise-rate scenarios would threaten the existence of salt marshes in the region in the absence of increased sediment supply. A better understanding is required of marsh accretion and predicted rate of sea-level rise to refine predictions of the effects of sea-level rise on Pacific Northwest salt marshes.
3665,1992,3,2,ALTERNATIVE ENERGY-RESOURCES - A KENYAN PERSPECTIVE,Kenya's heavy dependence on petroleum has had an adverse effect on its economy| making it difficult to achieve its development goals. Furthermore| the use of fossil fuels is accompanied by emissions of large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere-a process that is enhancing the greenhouse effect and subsequent global warming and climate change. This article gives an analysis of the Kenya's current energy scene and discuses its alternative energy resources. Although renewable energies are at present not viable substitutes for oil| the development and exploitation of these energy resources will not only reinforce conservation measures but also promote new trends in technology development. 3747,1992,2,4,AN ASSESSMENT OF A LATITUDE-TEMPERATURE INDEX FOR PREDICTING CLIMATE SUITABILITY FOR GRAPES IN EUROPE,The climatic suitability of wine grape classes in Europe was mapped using a latitude-temperature index. It was found necessary to superimpose a constraint based on a minimum temperature of the coldest month of -3-degrees-C to exclude those areas where winters are too severe for vine survival. The index| combined with this constraint| proved a useful indicator of current climatic potential of wine grapes. A sensitivity analysis| using arbitrary adjustments to temperature| suggested that even a 1-degrees-C warming could lead to a significant expansion in potential of viticulture. More critical examination| using GCM projections of global warming| and more site or region specific studies are recommended. 3697,1992,2,4,AN ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL WARMING STRESS ON CARIBBEAN CORAL-REEF ECOSYSTEMS,There is evidence that stress on coral reef ecosystems in the Caribbean region is increasing. Recently numerous authors have stated that the major stress results from "abnormally high" seasonal sea surface temperatures (SST) and have implicated global warming as a cause| stating that recent episodes of coral bleaching result therefrom. However| an analysis of available SST data sets shows no discernible warming trend that could cause an increase in coral bleaching. Given the lack of long-term records synoptic with observations of coral ecosystem health| there is insufficient evidence available to label temperatures observed in coincidence with recent regional bleaching events as "abnormally" high. 3745,1992,2,2,AN EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS IMPACT,Energy balance model has been calculated to assess the magnitude of the average global warming by the middle of the next century. It is shown that an increase in temperatures by about 4 K by the year 2050 as compared to the pre-industrial era (approximately 1800 AD) could result from the projected growth of atmospheric concentrations of major greenhouse gases i.e. carbon dioxide| methane| nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The changes in global warming are considered for different scenarios including the proposed regulatory measures on the use of CFCs. It is shown that even though the adoption of the revised Montreal Protocol will reduce the global warming due to CFCs by almost 50%| the projected overall global rise in temperature will still be about 2.7 K by the year 2050. The possible climatic impacts of the global warming on a few biogeophysical parameters are found to be alarming. Unless prompt action is taken to control the emission fluxes of other major greenhouse gases on lines similar to CFCs| the consequences may be severe for life on earth. 3679,1992,3,3,AN IMPROVED PROCESS FOR CONVERTING CELLULOSE TO ETHANOL,An improved process for converting cellulose to ethanol bas been developed. Significant features are: (a) the use of concentrated hydrochloric acid at moderate temperatures with mechanical action to hydrolyze the cellulose to glucose in quantitative yield| (b) recovery of the acid from the hydrolyzate by electrode to provide concentrated sugar solutions for fermentation; and (c) continuous fermentation of the sugars combined with continuous distillation of the ethanol produced. When this process is applied to the cellulosic content of municipal solid waste that is unsuitable for recycling and bas zero or negative cost because of high tipping fees the cost of ethanol production is much lower than that of ethanol produced from com. This technology shows promise of ameliorating the solid waste disposal problem while providing fuel alcohol to decrease urban air pollution without contributing to global warming 2197,1992,4,4,AN INTERACTIVE HYBRID EXPERT SYSTEM FOR POLAR CLOUD AND SURFACE CLASSIFICATION,An interactive hybrid expert system is developed to classify polar scenes using AVHRR LAC imagery. A total of 183 spectral and textural signatures axe generated from which the 20 "best" are chosen using the Sequential Forward Selection procedure. These 20 features are used to populate the working memory of the expert system. A probabilistic neural network is used as the inference engine to make probabilistic estimates of class membership. As part of the inference engine| a sophisticated outlier test is performed to provide a measure of classification confidence. During a session| the user is provided with an extensive set of on-screen aids to assist in labelling. The user may modify the knowledge base by adding new samples to existing classes or by including new classes. The expert system provides confidence measures and a distance measure from the proposed class cluster centre. The interactive environment allows the user to test the impact of class labelling upon the knowledge base before new data is entered. For users working with very large datasets and very complex scenes| the integrity of the knowledge base is the primary concern. A bootstrap method is used to validate classification accuracy. On the basis of 100 bootstrap samples| an overall classification accuracy of 87% is achieved| with a standard deviation of 1%. The result is that much more accurate cloud classification in polar regions now can be made| which will aid us in our monitoring of global climate change.
3649,1992,3,3,AN OPTIMAL TRANSITION PATH FOR CONTROLLING GREENHOUSE GASES,Designing efficient policies to slow global warming requires an approach that combines economic tools with relations from the natural sciences. The dynamic integrated climate-economy (DICE) model presented here| an intertemporal general-equilibrium model of economic growth and climate change| can be used to investigate alternative approaches to slowing climate change. Evaluation of five policies suggests that a modest carbon tax would be an efficient approach to slow global warming| whereas rigid emissions- or climate-stabilization approaches would impose significant net economic costs. 3692,1992,4,2,AN OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL WARMING,Temperature records indicate that the global annual mean surface air temperature (referred to as the global temperature) has risen by 0.5-degrees-C since 1840. According to recent general circulation model calculations| by the year 2020 the global mean temperature will have risen to 1.3 to 2.5-degrees-C above the preindustrial (1840) mean. By the year 2070| the range of temperature increase will be 2.4 to 5.1-degrees-C| and sea level will have risen 33 to 75 cm. Measurements from Antarctic ice cores show temperature swings of 4 to 5-degrees-C between ice ages and interglacial periods. Fossil fuel-based energy use through power generation and transportation is viewed as the major cause of the very recent and projected future temperature rise. Recent arguments of scientists and policy makers have increasingly focused on the exact scope of global-scale changes and consequences of the globally rising energy appetite. The question of global warming has become the most important scientific issue. 3703,1992,3,4,ANALYZING THE COST OF AN OECD ENVIRONMENTAL TAX TO THE DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES,Most studies on the global warming issue neglect the impact of proposed measures (eg carbon tax) on the economies of the developing countries in their anlayses. In this paper| an attempt has been made to bridge this gap. By using a standard econometric model| the major (possible) impacts of an OECD carbon tax on developing countries under different policy options were examined. Implementing a carbon tax policy could set serious restrictions to the developmental efforts of the developing countries. The role of non-commercial energy-use vis-a-vis global warming was also investigated. The need for a global perspective when designing effective environmental policies is inevitable. 3654,1992,2,4,APPLICATION OF GEOPROCESSING AND SIMULATION MODELING TO ESTIMATE IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ON THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA,Simulation modeling was applied to predict the response of northeast Florida coastal wetlands to future sea level rise due to global warming. Remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) were used to develop| manipulate| and synthesize model input including land cover| digital elevation data| and site characteristics data. The SLAMM3 model evaluated the input data to predict responses of coastal wetlands and lowlands to inundation and erosion by sea level rise| and determined transfers from one habitat to another on a cell-by-cell basis. Significant changes were predicted from different scenarios of sea level rise: 0.5 m| 1.0 m| and 1.25 m. The simulations indicated that 31.9 percent and 40.0 percent of wetlands within the study area would be lost with a 1.0 m and 1.25 m sea level rise| respectively| while 6.5 percent would be lost with 0.5 m rise. 2175,1992,4,4,ARABLE LANDS,This paper considers the major types of intensive farming that dominate most of agriculture and examines the effects on biodiversity of certain farming operations. Problems and opportunities for integration of agricultural practices and conservation are approached through a description of different spatial scales. A micro-spatial level examination focuses on field and farm levels. At the field level| farming operations| options available to farmers| and the effects of agricultural options on biological conservation are examined through reference to field preparation| tillage methods| water availability| fertilizers| and harvest methods. At the farm level| field boundaries and size of fields have numerous implications for conservation biology as well as for agriculture| particularly edge effects| buffer zones| and local natural vegetation mosaics. At the regional level| effective management for conservation biology and agriculture needs to consider efforts to increase habitat diversity and patchiness| the interest of urban peoples in recreation and natural areas| and the nature of pest control and management. On the global level| agriculture affects habitats and species survival| contributes to global climate change| ecological and human health| available land for other uses| and composition of plant communities.
3719,1992,4,3,ASSESSING THE SENSITIVITY OF CANADA ECOSYSTEMS TO CLIMATIC-CHANGE,Global warming due to increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2 is expected to be amplified in middle and higher latitudes. Consequently| ecosystems in these latitudes will experience more pronounced climatic variations. This investigation attempts to assess the sensitivity of Canada's ecosystems to climatic change. Potential ecological impacts resulting from global warming are outlined. With this background| the effects of a doubled CO2 climate are applied to a classification model derived from the current ecological setting. Results reveal not only major shifts in ecological boundaries but also changes in the character of these broadly distributed ecosystems. 3709,1992,4,4,ASSESSING THE VALUE OF HISTORICAL TEMPERATURE-MEASUREMENTS,Although some degree of global warming is now recognized| its extent and origin are proving much more complex than was first supposed. In particular| it is difficult to distinguish anthropogenic factors from long-term natural fluctuations. An important source of evidence lies in past recordings of temperature| but the evaluation of these rests on their reliability| which is very variable. This article reviews the accuracy of past records in respect of the instruments| their exposure| and the observers. 3637,1992,2,3,ASSESSMENT| BASED ON A CLIMOSEQUENCE OF SOILS IN TUSSOCK GRASSLANDS| OF SOIL CARBON STORAGE AND RELEASE IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING,A soil climosequence in tussock grasslands in South Island| New Zealand| encompassing climates ranging from cold to warm temperate provided a spatial analogue of climate change for investigating the effects of global warming on soil C contents and turnover. Mean annual temperature (T) and annual precipitation (P) ranged from 2 to 10-degrees-C| and 350 to 5000 mm| respectively. Soil C contents were curvilinearly related to T/P across the sequence (r = -0.95| significant at P < 0.01)| indicating that east of the Southern Alps| increased decomposition of organic matter with global warming would provide a positive feedback to further increase atmospheric CO2. This decrease in New Zealand's soil C| estimated to be up to 10% of the current content for a global temperature rise of 0.03 K a-1 to 2050| could contribute about 0.5 x 10(15) g C to the atmosphere over the next 60 years. These conclusions were generally supported by changes in soil C turnover estimated from 'bomb' C-14 enrichment. The unexpectedly slow turnover found for two soils was explained by a 'memory' effect from the former southern beech forest that grew on these soils in prehistoric times. Accumulation of Al-humus under the forest may be responsible for the slow C turnover observed. 2213,1992,2,4,BACTERIAL-GROWTH IN THE COLD - EVIDENCE FOR AN ENHANCED SUBSTRATE REQUIREMENT,Growth responses and biovolume changes for four facultatively psychrophilic bacterial isolates from Conception Bay| Newfoundland| and the Arctic Ocean were examined at temperatures from -1.5 to 35-degrees-C| with substrate concentrations of 0.15| 1.5| and 1|500 mg of proteose peptone-yeast extract per liter. For two cultures| growth in 0.1| 1.0| and 1|000 mg of proline per liter was also examined. At 10 to 15-degrees-C and above| growth rates showed no marked effect of substrate concentration| while at -1.5 and 0-degrees-C| there was an increasing requirement for organic nutrients| with generation times in low-nutrient media that were two to three times longer than in high-nutrient media. Biovolume showed a clear dependence on substrate concentration and quality; the largest cells were in the highest-nutrient media. Biovolume was also affected by temperature; the largest cells were found at the lowest temperatures. These data have implications for both food web structure and carbon flow in cold waters and for the effects of global climate change| since the change in growth rate is most dramatic at the lowest temperatures.
3765,1992,3,4,BIOMASS ENERGY| FORESTS AND GLOBAL WARMING,Biomass in all its form currently provides about 14% of the world's energy| equivalent to 25 million bbl oil/day; in developing countries where it is the major energy source| biomass supplies 35% of total energy use. Although biomass energy use affects the flux of carbon to the atmosphere| the main carbon emission problem is caused by fossil fuels and land clearance for agriculture. Biomass fuels make no net contribution to atmospheric CO2 if used sustainably. A major global revegetation and reforestation effort is a possible strategy to reduce CO2 emissions and to slow the pace of climatic change. However| a more attractive alternative strategy might be to substitute fossil fuels| especially coal| with biomass grown specifically for this purpose producing modern fuels such as electricity| liquids and gases. This paper examines biomass energy use| devegetation| biomass burning| the implications for global warming and the ability of biomass to sequester CO2 and substitute for fossil fuels. It also discusses some socioeconomic and political issues. 2215,1992,3,4,CALIFORNIA CLEAN-AIR INITIATIVES - THE ROLE OF FUEL-CELLS,The interaction between energy and the environment has been recognized for some time| but increasing focus is being placed on the feedback mechanisms between the two as local/regional and federal governments address the issue of regional pollution and global climate change| respectively. In Los Angeles the continued severity of the air pollution problem has stimulated renewed efforts to significantly curtail emissions to meet the health-related air quality standards. This paper provides an overview of the ambient air quality in Los Angeles| the impact of previous emissions control strategies| and the additional reduction in emissions required to meet the health-related air quality standards (Air Quality Management Plan| 1991) The paper focuses upon the role of clean technologies such as the fuel cell to effect the emissions reductions required. Finally| there is a discussion of the demonstration programs| planned or underway| with fuel cells and related technologies in the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD)| followed by some comments on the regulatory and legislative actions underway to stimulate new technologies.
2201,1992,2,4,CARBON STORAGE IN UPLAND FORESTS OF THE LAKE STATES,Carbon storage and dynamics are receiving increasing attention because of the hypothesized role of CO2 in global climate change. This study was carried out to determine total C storage in Lake States' forests| including C in biomass| forest floor| and mineral soil. Over-story trees were measured and samples of both forest floor and mineral soil (to 1 m) were collected from plots in 169 forest stands across Minnesota| Wisconsin| and Michigan. Five forest types were represented: balsam fir| Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.; jack pine| Pinus banksiana Lamb.; red pine| P. resinosa Ait.; aspen| Populus tremuloides Michx.; and northern hardwoods dominated by sugar maple| Acer saccharum Marsh. There were no strong geographic trends in C storage in biomass| forest floor| or mineral soil across the study area. Storage differed significantly among forest types. Each major C pool was related to a different set of descriptors. Total C storage| the sum of all pools| was related to forest type| stand age| available water| actual evapotranspiration| and soil day content| explaining about 65% of the variation. Use of soil and site descriptors did not completely account for the strong effects of forest type on C storage. Differences in the size of C pools| as related to time since disturbance and forest type| indicate that C storage in forests of the Lake States can be influenced by forest management activities. Patterns of C storage in these moist temperate ecosystems are not as strongly influenced by climatic variables as is C storage in grasslands to the west.
3785,1992,3,2,CARBON TAX AS A DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM,Wasting the atmosphere globally with carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is a special case of environmental pollution. Emissions from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases| carbon dioxide| methane| CFC's and nitrous oxide. NO(x) and hydrocarbons contribute indirectly to the greenhouse effect by forming Ozone in the atmosphere. These increased concentrations will result in an increased global warming| and as a consequence in a rise of the atmospheric temperature and the ocean level and to other potentially serious climate changes. An approach to define the ''carbon tax'' as an aggregate environmental ''price'' is discussed based upon the concept of global warming potential. The paper formulates the model to estimate die CO2 tax as function Of CO2 emission reduction and combines preliminary estimates of the reduction potentials and costs of the CFCs| N2O| CH4 and NO(x)| to define the overall effect of CO2- equivalent emission reduction in Switzerland. Some conclusions on the international rationale are also discussed concerning the recommendations of the Toronto and IPCC Conferences and their applicability to Switzerland. 3731,1992,2,4,CHANGES IN LOCATION OF NATURAL ZONES AS A RESULT OF GLOBAL WARMING,Changes in distribution of natural zones connected with climatic changes in Russian territory are examined. Changes of areas of natural zones as a result of warming by 1.4-2.2-degrees-C are cited. These are illustrated by distribution maps comparing natural zones in Russian territory| at present and after warming by 1.4-2.2-degrees-C. 3736,1992,2,3,CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE - TRENDS AND VERTICAL PROFILES,Chlorofluorocarbons with extremely long atmospheric lifetimes are responsible for both stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming as they accumulate in the atmosphere. Their average atmospheric concentrations in the northern/southern hemisphere have been monitored since 1979 in order to study their behaviors and the future trends of their concentrations in the atmosphere: 1. An extremely clean analytical system has been developed for accurate analysis of atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons| carbon tetrachloride| methyl chloroform and other halocarbons. Atmospheric samples were collected at the surface level by grab-sampling and analyzed by ECD gas chromatography. 2. The background atmospheric concentrations of CCl3F (CFC-11) and CCl2F2 (CFC-12) in the mid-latitude northern hemisphere have been increasing by 4% a year over the past decade. The concentrations of CFC-11 and CFC-12 observed in Antarctica have been 8-10% lower than those observed in the northern hemisphere in accordance with the predominant emission of chlorofluorocarbons in the northern hemisphere and the delay (-2 years) in their diffusion into the southern hemisphere across the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The CCl2FCClF2 (CFC-113) concentration in the atmosphere tends to increase much faster than those of CFC-11 and CFC-12. 3. The vertical profiles of chlorofluorocarbons in the stratosphere have also been measured by means of balloon grab-sampling and cryogenic sampling. They reflect how efficiently these compounds undergo UV-photolysis to release chlorine atoms and end up with depletion of the ozone layer in the stratosphere. 2180,1992,3,4,CHP DEVELOPMENT - IMPACTS OF ENERGY MARKETS AND GOVERNMENT POLICIES,Combined heat and power production (CHP) and district heating (DH) helped achieve the energy policy objectives in the OECD. The high production conversion efficiency of CHP and DH considerably improved energy security. Favourable economic conditions combined with supporting government policies fostered their development. This paper analyses the historical developments of DH systems and CHP production by public utilities and private industry. Examples from various OECD countries illustrate the different conditions which have fostered progress| particularly during the 1970s and early 1980s. But since the mid-1980s economic conditions have changed and increased uncertainties about the economic viability of CHP and DH have emerged. In recent years| however| new initiatives have started to develop. A survey of current activities in OECD member countries shows that this renewed interest is primarily the result of environmental concerns related to energy production and use and| in particular| to the danger of global climate change. These issues are likely to be pivotal parameters for the further development of CHP and DH.
2211,1992,2,4,CLASSIFYING PLANTS INTO GROUPS ON THE BASIS OF ASSOCIATIONS OF INDIVIDUAL TRAITS EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIAN SEMIARID WOODLANDS,1. A multivariate analysis of 43 traits of 300 species from semi-arid woodlands in western New South Wales. Australia is described. The 43 traits encompass vegetative| life-history| phenological and seed-biology characters. 2. Five main groups of species were produced which corresponded largely to growth form. These groups were (i) perennial forbs and C3 grasses| (ii) subshrubs of the family Chenopodiaceae| (iii) perennial C4 grasses| (iv) trees and shrubs and (v) annual forbs and grasses. The traits associated with these groups were vegetative| life-history and phenological. Seed-biology traits were poorly associated with the groups. 3. There were higher percentages of associations within and between vegetative| life-history and phenological traits| than within seed-biology traits. This has important consequences for models of vegetation dynamics in the context of species migrations under global climate change| as these models group species largely on the basis of their vegetative and life-history attributes.
3688,1992,2,3,CLIMATE CHANGE IN THAILAND AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RICE YIELD,In Thailand| the world's largest rice exporter| rice constitutes a major export on which the economy of the whole country depends. Climate change could affect rice growth and development and thus jeopardize Thailand's wealth. Current climatic conditions in Thailand are compared to predictions from four general circulation models (GCMs). Temperature predictions correlate well with the observed values. Predictions of monthly rainfall correlate poorly. Virtually all models agree that significant increases in temperature (from 1 to 7-degrees-C) will occur in the region including Thailand following a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. The regional seasonality and extent of the rise in temperature varies with each model. Predictions of changes in rainfall vary widely between models. Global warming should in principle allow a northward expansion of rice-growing areas and a lengthening of the growing season now constrained by low temperatures. The expected increase in water-use efficiency due to enhanced CO2 might decrease the water deficit vulnerability of dryland rice areas and could make it possible to slightly expand them. 3676,1992,3,3,CLIMATE CHANGE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES - LESSONS FROM A THEORY OF LARGE-SCALE POLICY,Climate change management strategies| which are intended to stabilize| slow or prevent global warming through global reductions in the production or presence of greenhouse gases| are currently under discussion in the context of a Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article addresses the concept of 'scale' and its relevance to the design and implementation of policy. Paul R. Schulman's 'theory of large-scale policy' is used to illuminate both prospects and problems of implementing climate change management strategies. This approach helps to highlight practical reasons why it will be a challenge to build or sustain international support for efforts to prevent or slow climate change. 2209,1992,4,2,CLIMATE FORCING BY ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOLS,Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change| tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing| and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short-wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo| thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be - 1 to - 2 watts per square meter| globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus| the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However| differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past| current| and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.
3726,1992,3,3,CO2 SEPARATION AND RECYCLING - A ROUTE TO ZERO NET PRODUCTION OF CO2 IN THE ALBERTA ENERGY INDUSTRY,CO2 is known to be a key contributor to the green house effect resulting in global warming. Since energy industry is the major producer Of CO2 it shares the responsibility of reducing the impact Of CO2 emissions from various energy related activities. CO2 is generated by the energy industry in a number of different ways. Some of it is simply recovered in its natural state| for example production of CO2 with CO2 containing natural gases while some other are generated in the chemical conversion processes of upgrading| processing and manufacturing of chemicals| for example generation of CO2 as a by product in the manufacturing of hydrogen and syn-gas. While some activities in the energy sector results in the production of CO2| other activities also require consumption of CO2. Most important CO2 consuming operation is the injection Of CO2 for the enhanced recovery of oils| which would otherwise be left unrecovered. This paper examines reduction in CO2 emissions in the energy production and processing activities in Alberta| by recovering all the CO2 produced and recycling the produced CO2 into the reservoir for enhanced oil recovery projects. The status Of CO2 recovery processes is critically reviewed and feasibility Of CO2 supply network connecting the production and utilisation sites in the context of the Province of Alberta is discussed. The CO2 supply network envisaged| may consist of pipelines| skid mount CO2 liquefaction plants and CO2 transport vehicles as well as CO2 injection compressors and wells. It is argued that zero net production of CO2 is possible under the proposed recycling options. 2212,1992,2,4,CO2LT AN AUTOMATED| NULL-BALANCE SYSTEM FOR STUDYING THE EFFECTS OF ELEVATED CO2 AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON UNMANAGED ECOSYSTEMS,An automated| CO2-controlled| long-term greenhouse system ('CO2LT') has been developed to provide replicated in situ ecosystem-level manipulation of atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature for intact plots of tussock tundra| and to measure the instantaneous ecosystem-level CO2 exchange rates within each of the plots under the treatments imposed. This is a computer-controlled| closed| null-balance greenhouse system consisting of 12 chambers with individual control of CO2 concentration and temperature. Carbon dioxide can be maintained in each chamber at concentrations from well below ambient (150-200-mu-l l-1) to more than 900-mu-l l-1. Air temperature can be fixed| set to track ambient| or can track ambient temperature with a specified offset allowing studies of the interaction of CO2 and temperature. Despite the complications involved in tracking a naturally fluctuating environment| the CO2LT system performs very well. Temperatures in individual chambers average within 1-degrees-C of ambient or target temperatures over a 24-h period and carbon dioxide concentration control rivals that of laboratory-based| control-environment systems. Photon flux density within the chambers is within 93% of ambient values. Comparison to unenclosed tundra indicates minimal chamber effects on depth of thaw| air| leaf| or soil temperatures| or net ecosystem CO2 flux. Chamber effects are generally small| and the experimental design allows separation and interpretation of treatment effects despite any unavoidable chamber effects. Both diurnal and seasonal patterns of net ecosystem CO2 flux can be accurately tracked with this system. Field measurements indicate net ecosystem CO2 loss under current environmental conditions| a possible response to recent climate change. Field measurements also indicate initial enhancement of net ecosystem CO2 uptake with elevated atmospheric CO2. Photosynthetic adjustment to elevated CO2 lowers ecosystem response to that of ambient chambers by mid-season. Also indicated is the possibility of delayed senescence of photosynthetic capacity at elevated CO2.
3737,1992,3,3,COASTAL DEFENSE - THE RETREAT OPTION,In a recent report| the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted an average rise in global sea levels due to global warming of 180 mm by the year 2030| and 440 mm by 2070. These increases could potentially compound a problem which is already appearing on the UK flood-defence agenda with increasing frequency| i.e. whether the country should continue to defend areas of agricultural land which currently have little or no national economic value. This paper explores the opportunities for nature conservation which might arise if 'retreat' from the existing line of defence is accepted as an option. The current situation in the UK and the United States is reviewed| and some possible responses are discussed. 2203,1992,4,4,CUMULUS CLOUD-BASE HEIGHT ESTIMATION FROM HIGH SPATIAL-RESOLUTION LANDSAT DATA - A HOUGH TRANSFORM APPROACH,Cloud base height is an essential variable governing surface energy budgets| but it is notoriously difficult to determine using satellite data. This study develops a semiautomated methodology to estimate cumulus cloud base heights using high spatial resolution LANDSAT Multispectral Scanner data. The approach employs a variety of image processing techniques to match cloud edges with their corresponding shadow edges. Cloud base height then is estimated by computing the separation distance between the corresponding Generalized Hough Transform reference points. Sixteen subregions| each 30 km x 30 km in size| are selected for four LANDSAT scenes. Standard deviations of cloud base height within each of the subregions range from about 100 m to 150 m. Differences between cloud base heights computed using the Hough Transform and a manual verification technique are small (on the order of 100 m or less). The cloud base heights also compare favorably with the few surface observations available. On the basis of these results| it is estimated that cloud base height accuracies of 50-70 m may be possible using HIRIS and ASTER instruments in the EOS Global Climate Change program.
3632,1992,5,2,DERIVING GLOBAL CLIMATE SENSITIVITY FROM PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS,To assess the future impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on global climate| we need a reliable estimate of the sensitivity of the Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing. Climate sensitivity is conventionally defined as the equilibrium surface temperature increase for carbon dioxide doubling| DELTAT2x. Uncertainties in cloud processes spread general circulation model (GCM) estimates of this parameter over the range 1.5 < DELTAT2x < 4.5-degrees-C (refs 1| 2). An alternative to model-based estimates is in principle available from the reconstruction of past climates3-6| which implicitly includes cloud feedback. Here we retrieve the sensitivity of two palaeoclimates| one colder and one warmer than present| by independently reconstructing both the equilibrium surface temperature change and the radiative forcing. Our results yield DELTAT2x = 2.3 +/- 0.9-degrees-C. This range is comparable with estimates from GCMs and inferences from recent temperature observations and ocean models7|8. Future application of the method to additional climates in the geological record might constrain climate sensitivity enough to narrow the model uncertainties of global warming predictions. 2168,1992,2,4,DISPERSAL CAN LIMIT LOCAL PLANT-DISTRIBUTION,The ability of species to establish new populations at unoccupied sites is a critical feature in the maintenance of biological diversity| and it bas taken on new importance as a result of global climate change and expected changes in species distribution. To examine the dispersal potential of plant species| seeds of four annual plant species were experimentally dispersed 40 to 600 m from existing populations in Massachusetts (U.S.A) to 34 nearby unoccupied but apparently suitable sites. At three of these sites| new populations were established that persisted for four generations and expanded slowly in area At seven sites a small initial population eventually died out At the 24 other sites| new populations did not become established| indicating that the sites were in some way unsuitable| that not enough seeds arrived| or that conditions suitable for seed germination do not occur every year. These results suggest that some species may be unable to disperse naturally out of their existing ranges in response to global climate change| particularly if habitat fragmentation creates barriers to dispersal. These species may have to be assisted to reach suitable sites nearby to prevent their extinction in the wild.
3680,1992,4,3,ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING - AN IDEA WHOSE TIME HAS COME,The era of cheap fossil fuels is nearing its end. Industrial| agricultural and human pollutants have reached alarming levels in water| soil| air and stratosphere. Consumers no longer tolerate poisons in their food and water| are now concerned with global warming and ozone depletion| and value fields and forests for their scenery and wildlife as well as food and fibre. We are at the crossroads| searching for answers to these and many other pressing ecological problems. On one side sit 'deep ecologists' who patiently await the reactions of global Gaia. On the other sit 'biotechnologists' who would design and build new organisms and new ecosystems. The first approach is defeatist| for it awaits the decimation of the human population. The other is activist| but will it work? Here we examine the idea of 'ecological engineering'| which offers some promise of solutions to our problems if it can integrate the practical sides of ecosystem| landscape| community and population ecology with relevant formal concepts from the engineering sciences. 2202,1992,2,4,ECOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS OF PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN| USA,Changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation| as predicted by several global climate models| were utilized together with a stochastic daily weather stimulation model to evaluate the ecological impacts of projected global climate change scenarios on temperate forest ecosystems on northern Michigan| USA. The model simulated the impacts of these projected changes on ecologically significant weather variables| such as the length of the frost-free period| average growing season temperature| average growing season degree days (4.4-degrees-C basis)| summer precipitation| potential evaporation during| the growing season| and the ratio of precipitation to potential evaporation during July and August. The results indicate that even the lower range of predicted climate changes could lead to ecologically and commercially significant changes in the composition and productivity of these forests. Of particular concern is the possibility of climatically induced regional decline episodes for a number of important commercial species in the northern temperate forests of central North America.
2189,1992,2,4,ECONOMIC-IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR WORLD AGRICULTURE,This paper challenges the hypothesis that negative yield effects in key temperate grain producing regions of the world resulting from global climate change would have a serious impact on world food production. Model results demonstrate that even with concurrent productivity losses in the major grain producing regions of the world| global warming will not seriously disrupt world agricultural markets. Country/regional crop yield changes induce interregional adjustments in production and consumption that serve to buffer the severity of climate change impacts on world agriculture and result in relatively modest impacts on world agricultural prices and domestic economies.
2182,1992,3,4,ECONOMIC-ISSUES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,The author highlights the critical role of economics in understanding the potential magnitude of global climate change as a problem for human society and for assessing and developing effective responses. It is shown that many of the basic economic tools and techniques needed to address global climate change issues are already found in the existing environmental and natural resource economics literature. However| in the application of economic concepts to climate change problems| much work remains. It is suggested that priority areas for future economic research include analysis of the impacts and the adaptation of economic systems| the value of information and decision making under uncertainty| and the development of world models of the economy that aid in understanding and predicting the sources and effects of global change that are linked to economic activity.
3639,1992,2,2,ECONOMICS AND THE GREENHOUSE-EFFECT,There is growing scientific and public concern that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will produce global warming and other climatic changes. Although economic activity is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions| information and incentive problems make it difficult to translate concern about global warming into economic behaviour and policy conducive to reducing emissions. The paper considers a set of near term (carbon tax)| intermediate term (afforestation| energy efficiency) and long term (new non-fossil fuel technologies) strategies for reducing CO2 in the atmosphere. Each strategy has useful attributes| but shortcomings or limitations too. While the near term and intermediate term strategies can slow and perhaps reverse the growth of CO2 emissions| only a successful long term strategy of fostering the development of some promising non-fossil fuel technologies| such as solar and solar-hydrogen| can eventually halt the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere. Moreover| public investment in the development of new non-fossil fuel technologies would largely obviate the information and incentive problems that currently stand in the way of an economically viable greenhouse policy. 3693,1992,2,4,ECOSYSTEM-LEVEL CHANGES THAT MAY BE EXPECTED IN A CHANGING GLOBAL CLIMATE - A BRITISH-COLUMBIA PERSPECTIVE,British Columbia is a vast province encompassing a wide latitudinal and elevational range. Four of the five major classes of climate in the world are found in British Columbia| where prevailing westerly winds from the Pacific and a series of north-south mountain ranges have produced widely differing local climates. The predicted global warming may result in the migration of species and communities upslope and toward the north| but the heterogenous nature of the present landscape suggests that such migration may not be as pronounced as that likely to occur in regions of Canada with less relief. Effects of climatic warming on long-lived temperate zone trees include possible increased frost damage in early spring; reduced seed production; increased insect and disease incidence; increased damage to forests by wildfire; and| in the warmer parts of coastal British Columbia| a winter climate too warm to satisfy the chilling requirements of some perennial plants. 3652,1992,2,4,EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF PARASITIC AND OTHER INFECTIOUS-DISEASES - A REVIEW,Assuming current trends continue| significant global warming via the 'greenhouse effect' seems-ineVitable; disequilibrium in physical and biological ecosystems will ensue| and the faster the changes occur the less likely it is that human (and other) societies will be able to adapt without serious resultant consequencesl14. Natural climatic changes in the past have occurred over| thousands or millions of years; global warming of 5000 to 15 000 years ago completely changed the face of the planet 6; this was| howevr| insidious unlike the rapid change which man-made 'global-warming' will precipitate. Present predictions on extent and geographical distribution of climatic change are based on incomplete scientific projections coupled with a significant quota of crystal-ball gazing! The potential impact of climatic change on communicable disease patterns can be summarized3: (i) modification of vector (usually arthropod) ecology - this relates principally to infections curently prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions| (ii) intensification of human-related risk factors - including reduced availability and quality of drinking water| cooking and sanitation facilities| extent of irrigation| etc| and (iii) an increase in soil| airborne and other diseases| directly related to the socioeconomic consequences of changed human behaviour.
3659,1992,2,4,EFFECTS OF BOREAL FOREST VEGETATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE,TERRESTRIAL ecosystems are thought to play an important role in determining regional and global climate1-6; one example of this is in Amazonia| where destruction of the tropical rainforest leads to warmer and drier conditions4-6. Boreal forest ecosystems may also affect climate. As temperatures rise| the amount of continental and oceanic snow and ice is reduced| so the land and ocean surfaces absorb greater amounts of solar radiation| reinforcing the warming in a 'snow/ice/albedo' feedback which results in large climate sensitivity to radiative forcings7-9. This sensitivity is moderated| however| by the presence of trees in northern latitudes| which mask the high reflectance of snow10|11| leading to warmer winter temperatures than if trees were not present12-14. Here we present results from a global climate model which show that the boreal forest warms both winter and summer air temperatures| relative to simulations in which the forest is replaced with bare ground or tundra vegetation. Our results suggest that future redistributions of boreal forest and tundra vegetation (due| for example| to extensive logging| or the influence of global warming) could initiate important climate feedbacks| which could also extend to lower latitudes. 3687,1992,2,3,EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND A DOUBLING OF CO2 ON VEGETATION DIVERSITY,A model is presented for predicting the response of global family diversity to global environmental change. The model assumes that three primary mechanisms determine diversity: the capacity to survive the absolute minimum temperature of a site| the ability to complete the life cycle in a given length and warmth of the growing season| and the capacity to expand leaves in a defined regime of precipitation and vegetation transpiration. The direct effects of CO2 on vegetation transpiration are also included. About one-third of the floristic regions of the world exhibit increased diversity with a 3-degrees-C increase in temperature| a 10% increase in precipitation| and a doubling of the CO2 concentration. The addition of CO2 offsets the increased rates of transpiration| caused by global warming through its capacity to reduce transpiration. As a consequence| the diversity of dry regions displayed the greatest increase in diversity due to increased CO2. 3650,1992,2,4,EGGS| ENZYMES| AND EVOLUTION - NATURAL GENETIC-VARIANTS CHANGE INSECT FECUNDITY,Phosphoglucose isomerase genotypes in the butterfly Colias differ dramatically in biochemical properties. These differences were evaluated earlier| using metabolic network theory| to predict| successfully| their effects on glycolytic metabolism and hence on Colias flight capacity and several consequent fitness components in the wild. Female egg-laying| not previously studied| also depends on flight| so female fecundity is now predicted to differ among these genotypes. An experimental design incorporating the thermal ecology of Colias confirms these predictions in a cool habitat. Thus female fecundity differences among animal enzyme polymorphs have now been found. Quantitative reconstruction of the selection regime for phosphoglucose isomerase genotypes in Colias can now begin. The most heat-stable genotypes are the least fecund| suggesting that global warming| if it occurs| may have severe impacts| through population genetics| on demography of thermally sensitive creatures. 3743,1992,3,4,ENERGY DEVELOPMENT| REGIONAL COOPERATION| AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN CENTRAL-AMERICA,For the countries of Central America| international cooperation in the area of global warming has sharpened the economic growth v environmental protection tradeoff. This paper simulates two energy futures for Central America as a region: a minimum cost (maximum development) scenario and a minimum CO2 emissions scenario. The tradeoffs between these two scenarios identify a frontier demonstrating the costs of cutting carbon emissions in Central America. As these costs are relatively low| Central America can use them to negotiate treaties| agreements| and eventually the sale of carbon emission rights to countries or companies facing more expensive carbon reduction strategies. 3642,1992,3,3,ENERGY PAYBACKS AND RENEWABLE BREEDERS,The feasibility of using renewable energy technologies to displace fossil fuels and mitigate global warming depends on the possibility of developing solar breeders. A solar breeder can be either a conceptual tool for analyzing any energy source or a physical plant to demonstrate the viability of renewable energy. The mathematics of breeders is discussed| and problems with previously used equations are demonstrated. The status of currently available renewable energy technologies is reviewed| and the importance of better information and of physical-breeder demonstrations is discussed. 2193,1992,4,4,ENERGY| EFFICIENCY| AND THE ENVIRONMENT - 3 BIG ES OF TRANSPORTATION,The three big Es of transportation are Energy| Efficiency| and the Environment. As the clouds of global climate change and the desire to rely less on Mid-East crude builds| how do manufacturers and refiners reconcile the needs of consumer acceptance and governmental regulation? How can policies and practices be united so that everyone involved works to the common goal of personal mobility? This lecture traces recent events that have resulted in paradox on top of paradox. As industry continues to react to the latest round of air pollution regulations| where are we headed as far as new CAFE limits and the potential for additional longer term controls related to the greenhouse effect? These are issues that will affect those in the equipment and oil industry| as well as the consumer| in the days ahead.
3771,1992,3,4,ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING - ESTIMATING AND REDUCING CORPORATE GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS USING MONITORING AND TARGETING SOFTWARE SYSTEMS,Current concerns about global warming| the alleged increasing greenhouse effect| environmental instability and sustainable developments have prompted organisations to devise and implement environment audits. These are undertaken in order to assess the impact an organisation's activities have on the environment and should include obtaining estimates for the airborne pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions produced. Recommendations are normally made to lessen detrimental effects on the environment and these aims are increasingly incorporated in organisations environment policies. Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and improving corporate profitability can be mutually compatible. Estimating emissions from multi-site organisations (as part of a corporate environmental audit) can be a difficult and lengthy task. The present paper describes a computer model| which has been developed to estimate corporate greenhouse-gas and airborne-pollutant emissions from readily-available fuel-invoice information and/or plant details. How monitoring and targeting techniques| developed for energy-thrift campaigns| can be used to monitor and reduce corporate greenhouse-gas emissions| with little or no capital outlay| by reducing energy waste| are also described. 2220,1992,3,2,ETHICAL ISSUES CONCERNING POTENTIAL GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD-PRODUCTION,Burning fossil fuel in the North American continent contributes more to the CO2 global warming problem than in any other continent. The resulting climate changes are expected to alter food production. The overall changes in temperature| moisture| carbon dioxide| insect pests| plant pathogens| and weeds associated with global warming are projected to reduce food production in North America. However| in Africa| the projected slight rise in rainfall is encouraging| especially since Africa| already suffers from severe shortages of rainfall. For all regions| a reduction in fossil fuel burning is vital. Adoption of sound ecological resource management| especially soil and water conservation and the prevention of deforestation| is important. Together| these steps will benefit agriculture| the environment| farmers| and society as a whole.
2186,1992,4,4,FIELD-MEASUREMENTS OF CO2 ENHANCEMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN NATURAL VEGETATION,It is generally assumed that healthy| natural ecosystems have the potential to sequester carbon under favorable environmental conditions. There is also evidence that CO2 acts as a plant fertilizer. It is of interest to know if these assumptions are valid and how natural systems might respond under future scenarios of CO2 increase and possible climate changes. Few measurements of the effects of CO2 and global climate change have been made on "natural" ecosystems under realistic field conditions. Most measurements have been conducted in the synthetic environments of totally controlled greenhouses and growth chambers. Several lines of evidence indicate that controlled environment studies using plants growing in pots induce experimental artifacts that reduce confidence in the use of results for prediction of future global responses. Open top chambers are being used in several autecological field studies in an attempt to obtain more realistic field environments. A few field microcosm studies have been completed and a system for the free air release of CO2 has been applied in cotton fields. Unfortunately| the requirement of large amounts of CO2 and financial restrictions have precluded the initiation of larger scale field studies in natural vegetation. This paper lists and summarizes the best field studies available but draws heavily on studies from artificial environments and conditions in an attempt to summarize knowledge of global environmental change on forests and other non-agricultural ecosystems. Finally the paper concludes that there is a need for the development and application of equipment for field measurements in several representative natural ecosystems and makes specific recommendation of the creation of a tropical research center.
3764,1992,4,4,FOREST RESPONSE TO CLIMATIC-CHANGE - EFFECTS OF PARAMETER-ESTIMATION AND CHOICE OF WEATHER PATTERNS ON THE RELIABILITY OF PROJECTIONS,Computer projections suggest that forests may respond dramatically and rapidly to global warming| with significant and readily observable changes in forests of mid-latitudes occurring by the turn of the century or shortly thereafter. These results raise the question: how reliable are the projections? Sensitivity analyses reported in this paper suggest that projections of forest response to global warming will be generally insensitive to errors of 10% in parameter estimation. Even where projections are sensitive quantitatively| they are not change in timing. Projections are insensitive to the choice of baseline weather records| unless the warmest or coldest decades of the 20th century are used as baselines. 3682,1992,3,3,FORESTRY OPPORTUNITIES IN THE UNITED-STATES TO MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING,There are a variety of opportunities in the United States to expand the area of trees and forests| and to improve their growth| that could have significant impact upon the annual uptake of atmospheric CO2. Work coordinated by the American Forestry Association has attempted to quantify those opportunities| and demonstrate what kinds of costs and benefits might result from an attempt to begin implementing them. The first section of the work| reported in this paper| has focused on the opportunities that are seldom thought of as regular forestry-planting trees on marginal crop and pasture lands| increasing windbreaks and shelterbelts| growing trees as a biomass energy source| and improving urban tree canopies and placements as an energy-conserving measure. The benefits from such work include thc C sequestered in the biomass and soils involved| as well as the carbon emission reductions achieved through energy conservation. These opportunities could add up to a total C impact per year in the range of 141 to 382 x 10(6)t-somewhere between 10 and 30% of the current net C emission from fossil fuel in the United States. Additional work is underway to quantity the opportunities inherent in improving the management of existing forestlands| through more traditional forestry. The results of that work will be available in late 1992. 2188,1992,2,4,GENETIC STRATEGIES FOR REFORESTATION IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,If global warming materializes as projected| natural or artificial regeneration of forests with local seed sources will become increasingly difficult. However| global warming is far from a certainty and predictions of its magnitude and timing vary at least twofold. In the face of such uncertainty| reforestation strategies should emphasize conservation| diversification| and broader deployment of species| seed sources| and families. Planting programs may have to deploy non-local seed sources| imported from further south or from lower elevations| which necessitates a system for conserving native gene pools in seed banks or clone banks. Planting a diverse array of species or seed sources is a hedge against the uncertainty inherent in current projections of warming. Most tree improvement programs already stress genetic diversity and deployment of multi-progeny mixes| but may better prepare for climate change by testing selections in an even wider set of environments than is now the case.
2171,1992,4,4,GENOTYPE-ASTERISK ENVIRONMENT INTERACTION - A CASE-STUDY FOR DOUGLAS-FIR IN WESTERN OREGON,Unrecognized genotype x environment interactions (g*e) can bias genetic-gain predictions and models for predicting growth dynamics or species perturbations by global climate change. This study tested six sets of families in 10 plantation sites in a 78-thousand-hectare breeding zone. Plantation differences accounted for 71 percent of sums of squares (15-year heights)| replications an additional 4.4 percent| families 1.9 percent| the first principal component of interaction effects 3.5 percent| and the second principal component 1.2 percent. Results in this study and in a larger survey (87 sets in 10 breeding zones) were similar: 51 percent of sets indicated significant g*e. In 46 percent of sets| the g*e interaction-family variance ratio was greater than 1; in 35 percent| greater than 1.5; and in 10 percent| greater than 5.
3634,1992,2,3,GEOTHERMAL CONDITIONS FOR GAS HYDRATE STABILITY IN THE BEAUFORT-MACKENZIE AREA - THE GLOBAL CHANGE ASPECT,Gases locked in hydrates or trapped beneath a gas hydrate cap within the earth are potential contributors to the greenhouse effect| and therefore both thermal conditions of and occurrences of the methane hydrates should be considered in the study of past climate change and of future global warming. The decomposition of methane hydrates triggered by an increase in near surface temperatures and the subsequent upward migration of released gases is occurring at present in the Beaufort-Mackenzie area of northern Canada. In addition to surface warming| the warming effect of the upward flow of the deep fluids| recharged in high elevation areas bordering the Alaska and Yukon coastal plain| may also be a factor in the release of methane directly from deeper buried hydrates in the fluid discharge zones. Any assessment of the total methane contribution to the atmosphere and the rate of the release requires a knowledge of the distribution| spatially and with depth| the temperature and composition of the gas hydrates. In this study the zones of methane hydrate stability are predicted by a thermal method and compared with the distribution of hydrates detected on well logs. An extensive hydrate prone layer extending to as deep as 1400 +/- 200 m over an area of 50|000 km2 is predicted by the thermal data and hydrate stability field. Comparison of the predicted maximum depths of methane hydrate stability with the maximum depths of hydrate occurrences in 52 wells shows general agreement in the areas of thick offshore and onshore permafrost. Differences in several areas of up to 400 m between the thermally predicted hydrate base and the deepest detected hydrates (detected hydrates are deeper than the predicted ones) can be explained by changes in gas composition. Otherwise low near-surface thermal gradients of approximately 15 mK/m to 20 mK/m (in comparison with observed deep thermal gradients of 25-40 mK/m) would be needed to explain the existence of deep hydrates in the area of the southern Mackenzie Delta trough and offshore north of 71-degrees-N latitude. Unfortunately there is no reliable industrial temperature observation from wells to support the latter. Such regional studies of the distribution of gas hydrates| including the stability of those deposits| form a crucial component of an assessment of the influence of gas hydrate formation and decomposition on the proportion of methane present in the earth's atmosphere. Current estimates suggest that between 10.E18 and 10.E21 tonnes of methane may be presently locked in gas hydrate deposits. To fully assess the total amount and the potential contribution to global warming| similar regional assessments are needed for each of the major areas of occurrence| especially in the circumpolar regions which are subject to the greatest increase in temperature conditions. 3635,1992,2,4,Geothermal conditions for gas hydrate stability in the Beaufort-Mackenzie area: the global change aspect,Gases locked in hydrates or trapped beneath a gas hydrate cap within the earth are potential contributors to the greenhouse effect| and therefore both thermal conditions of and occurrences of the methane hydrates should be considered in the study of past climate change and of future global warming. The decomposition of methane hydrates triggered by an increase in near surface temperatures and the subsequent upward migration of released gases is occurring at present in the Beaufort-Mackenzie area of northern Canada. In addition to surface warming| the warming effect of the upward flow of the deep fluids| recharged in high elevation areas bordering the Alaska and Yukon coastal plain| may also be a factor in the release of methane directly from deeper buried hydrates in the fluid discharge zones. Any assessment of the total methane contribution to the atmosphere and the rate of the release requires a knowledge of the distribution| spatially and with depth| the temperature and composition of the gas hydrates. In this study the zones of methane hydrate stability are predicted by a thermal method and compared with the distribution of hydrates detected on well logs. An extensive hydrate prone layer extending to as deep as 1400 +/- 200 m over an area of 50|000 km 2 is predicted by the thermal data and hydrate stability field. Comparison of the predicted maximum depths of methane hydrate stability with the maximum depths of hydrate occurrences in 52 wells shows general agreement in the areas of thick offshore and onshore permafrost. Differences in several areas of up to 400 m between the thermally predicted hydrate base and the deepest detected hydrates (detected hydrates are deeper than the predicted ones) can be explained by changes in gas composition. Otherwise low near-surface thermal gradients of approximately 15 mK/m to 20 mK/m (in comparison with observed deep thermal gradients of 25-40 mK/m) would be needed to explain the existence of deep hydrates in the area of the southern Mackenzie Delta trough and offshore north of 71 degrees N latitude. Unfortunately there is no reliable industrial temperature observation from wells to support the latter. Such regional studies of the distribution of gas hydrates| including the stability of those deposits| form a crucial component of an assessment of the influence of gas hydrate formation and decomposition on the proportion of methane present in the earth's atmosphere. Current estimates suggest that between 10.E18 and 10.E21 tonnes of methane may be presently locked in gas hydrate deposits. To fully assess the total amount and the potential contribution to global warming| similar regional assessments are needed for each of the major areas of occurrence| especially in the circumpolar regions which are subject to the greatest increase in temperature conditions. 2176,1992,2,2,GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,A succession of environmental events over the last few years has led to a dramatically increased awareness of the issue of global climate change and to the conviction that global climate change is occurring. The anticipated global climate changes are new and unique in that they will have been generated by human activity and could result in large-scale disruptions in ecosystems altering the suitability for organisms currently occupying them. The goals of both conservation biology and agriculture of feeding an increasing world population and preserving species diversity may be seriously challenged when linked to climate change. Anticipated atmospheric changes in precipitation patterns| temperature| and greenhouse gases could have extreme effects on species and ecosystems. Human systems could also bc affected| especially those based on coastal wetlands or shared river basins. Agriculture will be profoundly affected| with local| regional| and global changes occurring. Species distribution is likely to be drastically altered as a consequence of global warming.
2198,1992,2,2,GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE - ECOSYSTEMS EFFECTS,Much concern is felt about global warming and many debates have ranged widely on this subject without as yet arriving at a precise answer; the 'best guess' at present is a 60% chance of a global average change in the 1.5-4.5 K range if carbon dioxide concentrations were to double. However| regional temperature changes are still more speculative depending on the heat retaining properties of the oceans and the continents. The reaction of ecosystems to climatic change is here illustrated by considering forests and birds| and it is concluded that the more rapid the climatic change| the higher the probability of disruption and surprise in the ecosystems affected. The author finally recommends the banning of chlorofluorocarbons and switching fuels from coal to natural gas thus buying time and slowing down global warming.
3656,1992,2,3,GLOBAL CLIMATIC-CHANGE| HURRICANES| AND A TROPICAL FOREST,Most| if not all forests in the Caribbean are subject to occasional disturbances from hurricanes. If current general circulation model (GCM) predictions are correct| with doubled atmospheric CO2 (2 x CO2)| the tropical Atlantic will be between 1-degrees-C and 4-degrees-C warmer than it is today. With such a warming| more than twice as many hurricanes per year could be expected in the Caribbean| Furthermore| Emanuael (1987) indicates that in a warmed world the destructive potential of Atlantic hurricanes could be increased by 40% to 60%. While speculative| these increases would dramatically change the disturbance regimes affecting tropical forests in the region and might alter forest structure and composition. Global warming impacts through increased hurricane damage on Caribbean forests are presented. An individual tree| gap dynamics forest ecosystem model was used to simulate the range of possible hurricane disturbance regimes which could affect the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Model storm frequency ranged from no storms at all up to one storm per year; model storm intensity varied from no damage up to 100% mortality of trees. The model does not consider the effects of changing temperature and rainfall patterns on the forest. Simulation results indicate that with the different hurricane regimes a range of forest types are possible| ranging from mature forest with large trees| to an area in which forest trees are never allowed to reach maturity. 3677,1992,2,4,GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL ACCELERATION,Greenhouse warming scenarios commonly forecast an acceleration of sea level rise in the next 5 or 6+ decades in the range 0.1-0.2 mm/yr2. Long tide gauge records (75 years minimum) have been examined for past apparent sea level acceleration (i.e.| deviation from a purely linear rise) and for indication of how long it might take to detect or verify a predicted future acceleration. For the 80-year period 1905-1985| 23 essentially complete tide gauge records in 10 geographic groups are available for analysis. These yielded the apparent global acceleration -0.011 (+/-0.012) mm/yr2. A larger| less uniform set of 37 records in the same 10 groups with 92 years average length covering the 141 years from 1850 to 1991 gave for acceleration 0.001 (+/-0.008) mm/yr2. Thus there is no evidence for an apparent acceleration in the past 100+ years that is significant either statistically| or in comparison to values associated with global warming. Estimating how well a global acceleration parameter could be determined in a relatively short time was accomplished by dividing the 1905-1985 data set into four equal time spans. The formal 1-sigma uncertainty (about 0.2 mm/yr2) of global acceleration from these 20-year periods is more than an order of magnitude larger than for the 80- and 141-year cases owing to the existence of large interdecadal and longer variations of sea level. This means that tide gauges alone cannot serve as a leading indicator of climate change in less than at least several decades. Confirming the prediction of a particular model at the 95% confidence level or differentiating between model predictions will take much longer. The time required can be significantly reduced if the interdecadal fluctuations of sea level can be understood in terms of their forcing mechanisms and then removed from the tide gauge records. 3661,1992,4,5,GLOBAL WARMING - A REDUCED THREAT,One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures| sea level| and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere| and that night| rather than day| readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide. An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropogenerated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming| and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night| rather than day| warming. The sulfate emissions| though| are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However| the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols| and the general lack of previously predicted warming| could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.
3667,1992,4,3,GLOBAL WARMING - GREENHOUSE GASES VERSUS AEROSOLS,Man's activities have led to an increase in the atmospheric concentration of aerosols and the aerosol precursors as well as to an increase of greenhouse gases. A crude measure of man's global activities| which cause these increases| is the annual emission of carbon-in the form of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels. Hence as a first approximation| the additional releases of greenhouse gases and the additional production of aerosols are assumed to be proportional to the annual carbon emissions. A simple OD-model provides an estimate of the responses of the global annual average surface temperature to the increase of greenhouse gases and of aerosols. The albedo increase is estimated under the assumption that the additional aerosol production leads to a proportional increase in available cloud condensation nuclei and that the increase of greenhouse gases leads to a proportional decrease in the infrared transmittance of the atmosphere. Both effects are of the same magnitude but of opposite sign; hence| climate modelling requires the full inclusion of aerosols. 3749,1992,2,4,GLOBAL WARMING AND ELECTRICITY DEMAND - A STUDY OF CALIFORNIA,In this paper we estimate changes in California's annual electricity use and peak demand by 2010 under two global warming scenarios. We use each warming scenario to produce an electricity demand projection with end-use energy models. Our analysis focuses on the heating and cooling of buildings and the pumping and transport of water for farms and cities. The results suggest global warming has a moderate effect on electricity demand. Under our worst scenario| a 1.9-degrees-C increase| we project Statewide electricity requirements will increase by about 7 500 GWh (2.6%) and 2 400 MW (3.7%). We conclude discussion with thoughts on the implications a warmer world may have for energy forecasters and resource planners. 3672,1992,2,4,GLOBAL WARMING AND ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA,Now that governments are beginning to consider actions to respond to the potential threat of global warming (even if they do not yet believe that it will definitely occur)| their representatives search the scientific literature for 'clues' about the positive or negative impacts of a few degrees Celsius increase in global temperature. There is a growing number of 'guesstimates' (often called scenarios) about climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa. A review of the existing scenarios highlights conflicting| if not opposing| views about those impacts. Such scenarios must be used with caution and labelled as speculation. No single scenario should be used for determining irreversible policy responses to the potential regional consequences of global warming. 3691,1992,3,4,GLOBAL WARMING AND NUCLEAR-POWER,In view of the potential consequences of the greenhouse effect| it is important to restrain consumption of fossil fuels by exploiting conservation| solar power| and nuclear power. The pressure on developing countries for increased energy consumption makes reduction of fossil fuel use in the industrialized countries all the more important. Nuclear power already has had a significant impact. Primarily through its use| France reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 24% from 1973 to 1986. Given a vigorous program of nuclear power development| electrification| and conservation| one can envisage a U.S. energy economy in which CO2 production is halved. Standardized reactors| of small or medium size| may enhance the prospects for a nuclear renaissance in industrialized countries| and may be well matched to the needs of developing countries. 3742,1992,3,4,GLOBAL WARMING IMPLICATIONS OF REPLACING CFCS,The late 1980s were a challenging time for the HVAC and R industries because of the demands being made for increased energy efficiency| the development of alternative refrigerants that do not destroy stratospheric ozone| and the intense pressures of international competition. The 1990s will not be any less demanding| with further requirements to improve efficiency and changing understandings of environmental acceptability. Dealing with the global warming issue creates further difficulties in adapting the refrigeration and insulation technologies for future needs as chlorofluorocarbons are phased out of production and use in accordance with the Montreal Protocol. The study reported in this article was conducted to help industry| government and international policymakers reach sound decisions during the change-over from the CFCs to alternative compounds and technologies. Information developed in this effort complements ongoing studies to assess safety| toxicology| cost and other factors influencing these decisions.
2174,1992,4,4,GPS METEOROLOGY - REMOTE-SENSING OF ATMOSPHERIC WATER-VAPOR USING THE GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM,We present a new approach to remote sensing of water vapor based on the global positioning system (GPS). Geodesists and geophysicists have devised methods for estimating the extent to which signals propagating from GPS satellites to ground-based GPS receivers are delayed by atmospheric water vapor. This delay is parameterized in terms of a time-varying zenith wet delay (ZWD) which is retrieved by stochastic filtering of the GPS data. Given surface temperature and pressure readings at the GPS receiver| the retrieved ZWD can be transformed with very little additional uncertainty into an estimate of the integrated water vapor (IWV) overlying that receiver. Networks of continuously operating GPS receivers are being constructed by geodesists| geophysicists| government and military agencies| and others in order to implement a wide range of positioning capabilities. These emerging GPS networks offer the possibility of observing the horizontal distribution of IWV or| equivalently| precipitable water with unprecedented coverage and a temporal resolution of the order of 10 min. These measurements could be utilized in operational weather forecasting and in fundamental research into atmospheric storm systems| the hydrologic cycle| atmospheric chemistry| and global climate change. Specially designed| dense GPS networks could be used to sense the vertical distribution of water vapor in their immediate vicinity. Data from ground-based GPS networks could be analyzed in concert with observations of GPS satellite occultations by GPS receivers in low Earth orbit to characterize the atmosphere at planetary scale.
3783,1992,3,3,GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM PASTURE AND ARABLE CROPS GROWN ON A KAIRANGA SOIL IN THE MANAWATU| NORTH ISLAND| NEW-ZEALAND,Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were determined during the first 3 years of cropping a Kairanga soil out of pasture| with either full cultivation or no-tillage cereal establishment. The CO2 emitted during cropping was compared with calculated methane production by ruminants grazing pasture at the site. Cultivation resulted in the loss of about 10 t soil organic carbon (C)/ha over 3 years but there was no change in soil C with no-tillage cropping. Grazing of pastures at a high but sustainable stocking rate was calculated to produce 205 kg C/ha per year as methane (CH4). No-tillage cropping of this site therefore contributes much less CH4 and CO2 to the atmosphere than either grazing or cropping with cultivation. Using 20-year global warming potentials of 20 and 1 for CH4 and CO2 respectively| the data showed that ruminants grazing this site would have had more influence on atmospheric warming than cropping with cultivation did. 3751,1992,2,3,GREENHOUSE WARMING OVER INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,A hierarchy of climate models have been developed and applied to the problem of doubling the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Currently available general circulation models include the most complete treatment of the global warming and are capable of providing changes in several of the meteorological parameters in time scales of half a century or even more. Much skill is gradually being achieved now for future climate simulations. In this paper| we have attempted to describe the response of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate Community Model (NCAR CCM)| whose performance for northern hemispheric climate simulations was reported to be very satisfactory to Indian region. The seasonal (winter and summer) changes in surface temperature| rainfall and soil moisture expected over the Indian sub-continent due to doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere as inferred from model output statistics are discussed. A probable scenario for sea level rise along the Indian coastline by the year 2030 AD as a result of ocean water's expansion due to global warming is outlined. These projections should not be treated as predictions of what is going to happen over the Indian sub-continent. Rather| they merely illustrate to what extent we might be affected by the future climate change. 2196,1992,2,4,GROWING-SEASON TRENDS IN THE ALASKAN CLIMATE RECORD,Linkages between presumed global climate change and agricultural production will enable the development of management strategies to meet the needs of a diverse and future world agricultural enterprise. This study evaluated characteristic trends in the growing season length and dates of the last spring and first fall freezes at eight climate stations in Alaska between 1924 and 1989. Two minimum temperature criteria of O-degrees and -3-degrees-C were used in assessing freeze dates. Half of the stations had no change in growing season length over the last 65 years. whereas the other four stations had a lengthening of the season. Tendencies for longer seasons were in part a result of earlier spring freezes. The growing season shortened at three stations during the period 1940-70. which corresponded with declining Northern Hemisphere temperatures. The presence of changes in the growing season over the last 65 years was apparent in Alaska temperature records.
3780,1992,3,2,HALOCARBONS AND GLOBAL WARMING,The production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)| contributing both to the deterioration of the ozone layer and to the greenhouse effect| will be reduced in the near future. Hydro(chloro)-fluorocarbons| H(C)FCs| having a relatively low or no ozone depletion potential| are expected to partially replace CFCs. However| these H(C)FCs vary in global warming potential (GWP). Two groups can be distinguished: Class I H(C)FCs (HCFC-22| HCFC-142b| HFC-125| HFC-134a and HFC-143a) have a relatively high GWP| and Class II H(C)FCs (HCFC-123| HCFC-124| HCFC-141b and HFC-152a) have a relatively low GWP. In this study| using a 0-dimensional computer model| temperature forcing by halocarbons between 1985 and 2100 is calculated assuming different production scenarios for the halocarbons: CFCs| H(C)FCs| CH3CCl3 and CCl4. The results indicate that| while strongly restricting the use of CFCs| the most important factors determining the impact of halocarbons on future global warming may be the choice of H(C)FCs and the presence or absence of restrictions on H(C)FC applications. Unrestricted use of H(C)FCs exclusively from Class I could| by 2100| result in an equilibrium temperature increase that is 0.28-0.66-degrees-C higher than that resulting from the use of Class II H(C)FCs. However| if there is a phase-out of CFCs and Class I H(C)FCs by 2000| and if Class II H(C)FCs are only used as well-conserved refrigerants| the long-term climatic impact of halocarbons could become lower than the present impact of halocarbons. The same holds if there is a rapid total phase-out of radiatively active halocarbons. 3750,1992,3,3,HALOCARBONS AND GLOBAL WARMING .2.,Halocarbons| especially the widely used fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and chlorobromocarbons (halons)| contribute both to the deterioration of the ozone layer and the greenhouse effect. The use of CFCs and halons| however| will be restricted in the near future. Hydro(chloro)fluorocarbons [H(C)FCs]| which are less of a threat to the ozone layer| are expected to replace CFCs and halons. This study investigates the impact of CFCs| halons and H(C)FCs on global warming using an improved 0-dimensional computer model. The results indicate that implementation of the renewed Montreal Protocol may result in an equilibrium temperature increase at the earth's surface of 0.38-0.75-degrees-C by 2100 when H(C)FCs are used unrestrictedly to replace CFCs and halons. This warming can be reduced by 40% by better housekeeping| recycling or destruction of halocarbon wastes. A phase-out of HCFCs by 2035| which is under discussion as an additional measure to protect the ozone layer| could increase temperature forcing by halocarbons to 0.46-1.16-degrees-C| if HCFCs are replaced by HFCs and no emission-reducing measures are implemented. A phase-out of H(C)FCs with a relatively high global warming potential| while using H(C)FCs with a relatively low global warming potential only restrictedly and with extensive control technology| may result in equilibrium warming that is lower than the present forcing. However| stabilization of the temperature of the earth as influenced by halocarbons is approached most closely when all halocarbons are phased out before the end of this century. 3755,1992,3,3,HALOCARBONS AND GLOBAL WARMING .3.,This study investigates the impact of halocarbon use on global warming during the next century. An improved 0-dimensional computer model is used to calculate annually until 2100 the equilibrium temperature at the earth's surface as determined by halocarbons| following the expected application of specific halocarbons having a significant global warming potential. Halocarbon applications that contribute most to temperature forcing are calculated to be refrigeration and mobile air conditioning| if H(C)FCs are used unrestrictedly to replace CFCs and halons. The gases that are expected to contribute most to calculated temperature forcing are HCFC-22 and HFC-134a. If HCFCs are phased-out to protect the ozone layer and replaced by HFCs| HFC-134a| -143a and -125 will be the most important contributors to global warming| being mainly emitted from refrigeration and mobile air conditioning appliances. 3781,1992,3,4,HCFC BLOWN RIGID POLYURETHANE FOAMS AND REFRIGERATOR LINER MATERIALS - THE SEARCH FOR COMPATIBLE SYSTEMS,With the traditional use of CFC-11 blown polyurethane foam for refrigerator insulation there has been limited need for interaction between the PU producers on the one hand and the producers of plastics used for liner materials on the other hand. Taking into consideration their ozone depletion potential (ODP) and global warming potential (GWP) there is wide acceptance that HCFC-123 and -141b are the nearest "drop in" substitutes known today for CFC-11 replacement. However| this has major implications as these new blowing agents are significantly more aggressive requiring novel approaches in terms of material choice for monolithic and/or co-extruded sheet to retain the optimum sheet thickness| productivity and economics of current materials. This paper first of all summarises the current status of developments towards the reduction and eventual elimination of CFC-11 from rigid polyurethane foam systems used for the insulation of domestic refrigerators and freezers. It then addresses the problems of liner/alternative blowing agent interactions using tests which attempt to bridge the classical laboratory tests whilst acknowledging the ultimate need to run full scale processing| assembly and functional performance trials at refrigerator manufacturers. Key parameters covered include thermal conductivity| its ageing| carbon dioxide permeability and adhesion between the polyurethane foam and the plastic liner. Physical attack of the liners is studied employing two qualitative testa One involves an unconstrained situation with profiled vacuum formed liner in contact with HCFC blown foams; the other uses a prototype tool which incorporates shelf support and mullion in a restrained mode with an aluminium tool. New liner materials and combinations which are compatible with HCFC blown foams are identified as a result of this work. 3778,1992,2,4,HYDRAULIC RESIDENCE TIMES FOR THE LAURENTIAN GREAT-LAKES,The Laurentian Great Lakes comprise one of the major water resources of North America. For many water quality studies the hydraulic residence times or replacement times of the Great Lakes serve as measures of how quickly water quality will change in response to changes in contaminant loadings. The residence time for a conservative substance represents the average time a conservative substance which remains dissolved in the water spends in a lake. The hydraulic residence times of conservative substances for the Great Lakes are relatively long ranging| from close to 200 years for Lake Superior to a little over 2 years for Lake Erie. A major reduction of 38 years was found in the residence time for Lake Michigan (62 years as compared with the 100 year value previously reported) due to the consideration of flow exchange between Lakes Michigan and Huron. This indicates that Lake Michigan may respond much faster to reductions in contaminant loadings than previously expected. Because of their low ratio of volume to outflow| only Lakes Erie and Ontario are affected by normal climatic variations of less than 20 years in duration. Extreme lake level conditions over the period of 2 to 8 years can also significantly affect the residence times of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Thus high levels in the early 1970s may have contributed to the improvement of water quality in Lake Erie. Existing diversions and potential global warming appear to have no significant effect on residence times. 2204,1992,3,4,IEA PERSPECTIVES ON THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE,Based on the IEA's Medium Term Model which provides estimates of energy consumption and related variables to the year 2005| the IEA has attempted to develop a coherent methodology to quantify approximately the possible effectiveness of response measures in achieving the target of stabilising of CO2 emissions at current levels by 2005. Such an analysis by no means constitutes a full cost benefit evaluation and does not try to measure the economic or other costs of the measures it evaluates. Also| it should not be viewed as a recommendation or suggestion on how best to counter the long-term accumulation of CO 2 emissions. Two types of policy instrument have been assessed: fiscal; and regulation of supply options. The study has evaluated four variants: carbon taxes; a 50% increase in nuclear's share of power generation; a combination of these two measures; and a radically greater use of natural gas.
3767,1992,3,3,IMPACT OF AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE EMISSIONS OF NITROGEN-OXIDES ON TROPOSPHERIC OZONE AND GLOBAL WARMING,ACTUAL and potential increases in aircraft traffic are causing concern about the effects of aircraft exhaust emission on atmospheric chemistry. Model results 1-3 and measurements 4-6 in the Northern Hemisphere have shown that growth in surface emissions of nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons leads to increases in concentration of tropospheric ozone. Tropospheric ozone is toxic to plants| humans and other organisms| and it is a greenhouse gas 7-9. The radiative forcing of surface temperature is most sensitive to changes in tropospheric ozone at a height of approximately 12 km (ref. 8)| where aircraft emissions of nitrogen oxides are at a maximum and where the model sensitivity of ozone to nitrogen oxide emissions is enhanced. Our model results show that the radiative forcing of surface temperature is about thirty times more sensitive to aircraft emissions of nitrogen oxides than to surface emissions. We also find that the impact on global warming of increases in tropospheric ozone caused by increases in surface emissions of nitrogen oxides has previously been overestimated by a factor of five 1|10| owing to an error in the calculation of the ozone budget. 2207,1992,2,4,IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA-LEVEL RISE ON SMALL ISLAND STATES - NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL RESPONSES,Few developing countries possess sufficient indigenous financial and personnel resources to address adequately the predicted impacts of global climate change. In recognition of this fact| the Oceans and Coastal Areas Programme Activity Centre of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1987 established a series of regional teams to examine potential impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on terrestrial and marine ecosystems| on coastal environments| and on the socioeconomic structures of countries throughout the world. Drawing mainly on the work of the South Pacific Task Team| this article provides an overview of interrelated environmental problems and development problems in the Indo-Pacific region and reviews efforts to develop response strategies. The case of the Maldives is highlighted.
3684,1992,2,3,IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC-CHANGE ON RIVER FLOW REGIMES IN THE UK,Much has been written in recent years about the potential threats posed by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This paper summarizes the implications of global warming for hydrological processes in general and river flow characteristics in the UK in particular| emphasizing the present high degree of uncertainty. Current climate change scenarios for the UK imply that rainfall between autumn and spring will increase| and this may have beneficial implications for UK water resources. However| the effect of this increase may be outweighed by higher evapotranspiration. Average annual runoff in a catchment in southern UK may be reduced by around 5% by the middle of the next century| but this estimate is very uncertain: runoff may reduce by 30% or increase by 30%. Runoff in northern and western UK is likely to show a slight increase (but with similarly large confidence intervals). It is probable that river flows in the UK will be much more concentrated in winter than at present. The effect of a given climate change scenario on monthly flow regimes depends on the current summer water balance and on catchment geological conditions. 3648,1992,2,1,IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL WARMING OF INTERCYCLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE VARIATIONS,FOLLOWING earlier studies1-6| attention has recently been directed again to the possibility that long-term solar irradiance variations| rather than increased greenhouse gas concentrations| have been the dominant cause of the observed rise in global-mean surface temperature from the mid-nineteenth century to the present. Friis-Christensen and Lassen7 report a high correlation (0.95; ref. 8) between the variable period of the '11-year' sunspot cycle and the mean Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature from 1865 to 1985. The Marshall Institute report9 concludes that '...the sun has been the controlling influence on climate in the last 100 years| with the greenhouse effect playing a smaller role." Here we explore the implication that such putative solar irradiance variations would have for global warming. Our results provide strong circumstantial evidence that there have been intercycle variations in solar irradiance which have contributed to the observed temperature changes since 1856. However| we find that since the nineteenth century| greenhouse gases| not solar irradiance variations| have been the dominant contributor to the observed temperature changes. 2200,1992,2,4,INADVERTENT WEATHER-MODIFICATION IN URBAN AREAS - LESSONS FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,Large metropolitan areas in North America| home to 65% of the nation's population| have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First| adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes| particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate| a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle| the regional economy| and human activities were difficult because of data problems| lack of impact methodology| and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioral implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue| and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.
3658,1992,3,4,INDUSTRIAL-INNOVATION AND GOVERNMENT ENVIRONMENTAL-REGULATION - SOME LESSONS FROM THE PAST,While government regulatory activity of all kinds was at historically high levels between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s| the following decade saw a strong trend towards deregulation. Since the mid-1980s| with the increasingly obvious detrimental impact of environmental pollution and growing fears over ozone layer depletion and global warming| there have been strong pressures for more stringent environmental regulations. During the earlier period of intense regulatory activity| government regulations frequently had unnecessarily large negative impacts on regulated firms. This paper addresses a number of these impacts and their underlying causes and suggests how the negative effects of environmental regulations can be minimized while at the same time offering adequate protection to the environment. 3657,1992,4,4,INFERENCE ABOUT TRENDS IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DATA,Interpretation of the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide on temperature is made more difficult by the fact that it is unclear whether sufficient global warming has taken place to allow a statistically significant finding of any upward trend in the temperature series. We add to the few existing statistical results by reporting tests for both deterministic and stochastic non-stationarity (trends) in time series of global average temperature. We conclude that the statistical evidence is sufficient to reject the hypothesis of a stochastic trend; however| there is evidence of a trend which could be approximated by a deterministic linear model. 3699,1992,3,3,INFLUENCE OF KAOLIN ON METHANE OXIDATION BY METHYLOMONAS-METHANICA IN GAS-PHASE BIOREACTORS,Significant levels of methane are liberated from the coal face and subterranean pockets during coal mining. This methane poses an explosion hazard in mines and when released into the atmosphere| acts as a greenhouse gas which contributes to global warming. Methanotrophic bacteria in gas phase bioreactors (GPBs) offer the potential to convert this methane to less deleterious substances; however| it is critical that reaction rates be maximized. The effect of kaolin on rates of methane oxidation by Methylomonas methanica grown in GPBs was assessed. The amendment of GPBs with a 4% kaolin solution significantly increased methane removal by M. methaniea versus non-kaolin-amended controls. The maximum velocities (upsilon(max)) were 604.1 mg methane min-1 GPB-1 in the control compared to 1156.6 mg methane min-1 GPB-1 in the kaolin-amended bioreactors| while the Michaelis constants (K(m)) were 15.87 and 60.52 mg methane GPB-1| respectively. 2208,1992,3,3,INSTITUTIONS FOR MANAGING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE - COMPLIANCE| FAIRNESS| AND UNIVERSAL PARTICIPATION,Ensuring that treaties designed to manage global climate change are 'implementable' is an important negotiating challenge. Implementable agreements have a reasonable chance of being ratified by nation states that are the greatest contributors to the problem; are acceptable to parties with the resources to do something about it; and induce voluntary compliance. This article contends that| aside from domestic political characteristics| other factors contributing to effective implementation of international agreements are their structure| requirements| and expectations. Factors that optimize implementable agreements include: a sufficient number of relevant participants in negotiations to enhance their legitimacy; reliance on confidence-building to deter non-compliance; stating precisely the signatory obligations; and designing treaties to be renegotiable in the face of changing scientific| political| and economic conditions. Global environmental agreements most likely to obtain signatory compliance will avoid overly stringent standards; allow variable compliance and discretion in implementation; consult domestic interests at each stage of agreement 'design' and execution; permit transfers of resources and technology; and rely on 'functional integration' to build confidence.
2219,1992,4,2,INTERACTIONS BETWEEN HYDRODYNAMICS AND PELAGIC ECOSYSTEMS - RELEVANCE TO RESOURCE EXPLOITATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE,A proposal is made to classify the pools of biogenic carbon in the oceans by reference to their turnover times. Break points in the continuum of turnover times| located at 10(-2) and 10(2) years| distinguish between short-lived organic carbon| long-lived organic carbon and sequestered biogenic carbon. The three pools of biogenic carbon are discussed by reference to the more usual oceanographic concepts of new v. regenerated production| and export v. recycled production. Short-lived organic carbon is mainly associated with the microbial food-loop| long-lived organic carbon is relevant to renewable marine resources| and sequestered carbon is pertinent to global climate change (greenhouse effect). Recycling| export and sequestration are controlled by the proportions of primary production effected by small (<5 mum) and large (>5 mum) phytoplankton respectively| and by the selective grazing pressure experienced by cells in the various size-classes. These ecosystem processes are in turn governed by hydrodynamics. At low levels of auxiliary (mechanical) energy| the physical environment is stable. so that pelagic ecosystems are dominated by the microbial food-loop and biogenic carbon is mainly short-lived. Transitions from high levels of auxiliary energy to more stable conditions favour the production of large phytoplankton. When this takes place along predictable regular modes| primary production may be channelled into the long-lived pool| whereas stochastic transitions may lead to carbon sequestration. This theoretical framework may help the modem approaches of fisheries oceanography and biogeochemical oceanography to converge.
3671,1992,2,3,INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF LANDFAST ICE THICKNESS IN THE CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC| 1950-89,A physical one-dimensional heat transfer model of fast ice growth was used to investigate the interannual variability of maximum fast ice thickness at four sites in the High Arctic over the period 1950-89. The insulating role of snow cover was found to be the most important factor| explaining 30-60% of the variance in maximum ice thickness values. Other snow-related processes such as slushing and density variations were estimated to explain a further 15-30% of the variance. In contrast| annual variation in air temperatures explained less than 4% of the variance in maximum ice thickness. No evidence was found for the systematic ice thinning trend anticipated from greenhouse gas-induced global warming. However| recent ice thinning and thickening trends at two sites (Alert and Resolute) are consistent with changes in the average depth of snow covering the ice and may be explained by changes in cyclone frequencies. A response surface sensitivity analysis following Fowler and de Freitas (1990) indicated the High Arctic landfast ice regime would be more sensitive to air temperature variations under a warmer| snowier environment. 3761,1992,4,4,INTERDECADAL NATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND ITS IMPLICATION IN GLOBAL WARMING,Long-term hydrographic observations repeated by the Japan Meteorological Agency in the western Pacific have revealed not only the oceanic thermal variability associated with the ENSO events but also another interdecadal variability seemingly related to the global warming trend from the late 1970s. Since the background SST is high in the tropical western Pacific| even weak SST anomalies may affect strongly the atmospheric circulation including the Aleutian Low and the Asian winter monsoon. The extratropical atmospheric response to the interdecadal SST anomaly is global and looks quite different from that for the ENSO time scale. We note that the response is even reversed in the Asian monsoon region. To the west of the date line the ocean behaves like a dynamical slave to the winter Asian monsoon as demonstrated using the ocean general circulation model. In particular| the winter monsoon and related easterly wind variations are responsible for maturity or immaturity of the cold Mindanao Dome off the Phillipine coast. However| the active (inactive) summer monsoon followed by the anomalous easterlies (westerlies) intensified over the tropical western Pacific from summer through winter appears to be responsible for the positive (negative) SST anomalies in the same area at least for the ENSO time scale. This suggests that an interesting positive feedback mechanism responsible for natural climate variabilities ranging from several years to decades may exist in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system in the western tropical Pacific. 3779,1992,4,4,INTERHEMISPHERIC CONTRASTS OF MEAN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES,Northern and Southern Hemisphere series of surface temperature anomalies are compared. The series studied are the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU) monthly series (1854-1986) and the UK Meteorological Office (MO) quarterly series (1856-1989). A major difference is the marked seasonal variation of the warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere| with maximum in winter and minimum in summer. Analysis of the annual cycle of the CRU set suggests a shift in phase of the warm peak in the annual cycle of temperature anomalies from July to January for the period. This shift is a characteristic of the annual cycle itself and does not have to be associated with a greater warming trend in winter than in summer| although it may be. The series were converted into interannual differences from one month or quarter to the corresponding month or quarter in the following year. Globally| the sequential values of the positive and negative modes of the interannual differences suggest a slow relaxation towards zero with the absolute values of the interannual coolings decreasing faster than those of the interannual warmings. Spectral analyses of the first-order interannual differences of the monthly CRU and of the quarterly MO series suggest that the temperature field reacts to a Quasi-Biennial Oscillation pulse in the Northern Hemisphere and to a stronger ENSO pulse in the Southern Hemisphere. 3760,1992,3,4,INVESTIGATIONS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL ACCEPTABILITY OF FLUOROCARBON ALTERNATIVES TO CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS,Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are currently used in systems for preservation of perishable foods and medical supplies| increasing worker productivity and consumer comfort| conserving energy and increasing product reliability. As use of CFCs is phased out due to concerns of ozone depletion| a variety of new chemicals and technologies will be needed to serve these needs. In choosing alternatives| industry must balance concerns over safety and environmental acceptability and still meet the performance characteristics of the current CFC-based products. About 60% of projected CFC demand will either be eliminated by improved conservation practices or will be satisfied by nonfluorocarbon alternatives. With current technology| the only viable alternatives meeting the safety| performance| and environmental requirements for the remaining 40% of demand are fluorocarbons| hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)| and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). HCFCs and HFCs possess many of the desirable properties of the CFCs| but because of the| hydrogen| they react with hydroxyl in the lower atmosphere. This results in shorter atmospheric lifetimes compared to CFCs and reduces their potential to contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion or global warming; HFCs do not contain chlorine and have no potential to destroy ozone. This paper provides an overview of challenges faced by industry| regulators| and society in general in continuing to meet societal needs and consumer demands while reducing risk to the environment without compromising consumer or worker safety. 3668,1992,5,4,IRREGULAR OSCILLATIONS OF THE WEST ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET,Model simulations of the West Antarctic ice sheet suggest that sporadic| perhaps chaotic| collapse (complete mobilization) of the ice sheet occurred throughout the past one million years. The irregular behaviour is due to the slow equilibration time of the distribution of basal till| which lubricates ice-sheet motion. This nonlinear response means that predictions of future collapse of the ice sheet in response to global warming must take into account its past history| and in particular whether the present basal till distribution predisposes the ice sheet towards rapid change. 3715,1992,2,4,ISOLATION AND DETERMINATION OF CULTURAL-CHARACTERISTICS OF MICROALGAE WHICH FUNCTIONS UNDER CO2 ENRICHED ATMOSPHERE,A fresh-water microalgae| which functions under CO2 enriched atmosphere conditions| was isolated and its cultural characteristics were investigated. The HA-1 strain| identified as genus Chlorella| was newly isolated from a paddy field by an enrichment culture using reproduced stack gases from a thermal power plant with a concentration of CO2 and O2 of 15 % and 2 % respectively. It showed maximum growth at 10 % CO2 enriched air flowing condition| and showed a good growth rate in a broad range of physically controllable conditions| including CO2 enriched air flow rate| temperature and pH value. The results indicated the feasibility of the HA-1 strain for mass cultivation using stack gases. 2181,1992,3,4,ISRAELI RESEARCHERS PLANNING FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE LOCAL-LEVEL - GREENING THE DESERT IS NOT A SENSIBLE OPTION GIVEN LIMITED WATER,Greening the desert is not a sensible option given limited water The dream to 'green the Negev' has been part of the Israeli psyche since the state was established| but Israel's plans to conquer its deserts were rather naive| say its scientists today. Bringing in enough water can transform a desert| but the system's productivity lasts only as long as the water. And water is an unreliable variable in Israel. The Sea of Galilee supplies approximately half the drinking water for more than 5 million people and 20-30% of the total water used. Two years ago| water levels in the lake dropped within centimeters of the "red line." A drop below the line would pose a potential disaster. Fortunately| last year's unusually heavy precipitation raised the lake's waters to its highest levels since 1988. Such vagaries have forced the country to alter its water use patterns and attitudes toward greening. The Jewish National Fund| for example| originally aimed to plant dense stands of trees throughout Israel. "But I convinced [the fund] that without irrigation you cannot turn a desert into a forest|" Moshe Shachak| a researcher at the Mitrani Center for Desert Ecology at the Ben-Gurion University of the Negev| said in an interview in his laboratory recently. Much of the development in the Negev Desert has depended on piping water great distances from other parts of the country. The fund now supports research on a landscape management technique called savannization| which is being developed at Mitrani. By using the technique| areas that may not normally support trees and a wide variety of annuals due to climatic factors like rainfall could be converted to a more diverse landscape without bringing water in from outside the region| says …
3696,1992,4,4,KINETICS OF THE OH REACTION WITH METHYL CHLOROFORM AND ITS ATMOSPHERIC IMPLICATIONS,The rate coefficients for the reaction of hydroxyl (OH) radicals with methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) were measured between 243 and 379 kelvin with the pulsed photolysis-laser-induced fluorescence method. The measured rate Coefficients at 298 and 277 kelvin were approximately 20 and approximately 15%| respectively| lower than earlier values. These results will increase the tropospheric OH concentrations derived from the CH3CCl3 budget analysis by approximately 15%. The predicted atmospheric lifetimes of species whose main loss process is the reaction with OH in the troposphere will be lowered by 15% with consequent changes in their budgets| global warming potentials| and ozone depletion potentials. 3689,1992,4,4,LAKE ICE RECORDS USED TO DETECT HISTORICAL AND FUTURE CLIMATIC CHANGES,Historical ice records| such as freeze and breakup dates and the total duration of ice cover| can be used as a quantitative indicator of climatic change if long homogeneous records exist and if the records can be calibrated in terms of climatic changes. Lake Mendota| Wisconsin| has the longest uninterrupted ice records available for any lake in North America dating back to 1855. These records extend back prior to any reliable air temperature data in the midwestern region of the U.S. and demonstrate significant warming of approximately 1.5-degrees-C in fall and early winter temperatures and 2.5-degrees-C in winter and spring temperatures during the past 135 years. These changes are not completely monotonic| but rather appear as two shorter periods of climatic change in the longer record. The first change was between 1875 and 1890| when fall| winter| and spring air temperatures increased by approximately 1.5-degrees-C. The second change| earlier ice breakup dates since 1979| was caused by a significant increase in winter and early spring air temperatures of approximately 1.3-degrees-C. This change may be indicative of shifts in regional climatic patterns associated with global warming| possibly associated with the 'Greenhouse Effect'. With the relationships between air temperature and freeze and break up dates| we can project how the ice cover of Lake Mendota should respond to future climatic changes. If warming occurs| the ice cover for Lake Mendota should decrease approximately 11 days per 1-degrees-C increase. With a warming of 4 to 5-degrees-C| years with no ice cover should occur in approximately 1 out of 15 to 30 years. 3763,1992,3,2,LEAKING METHANE FROM NATURAL-GAS VEHICLES - IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION POLICY IN THE GREENHOUSE ERA,A model of the U.S. automobile market is used to test the role that natural gas vehicles (NGVs) might play in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. Since natural gas (primarily methane) emits less CO2 per unit of energy than petroleum products| NGVs are an obvious pathway to lower CO2 emissions. High- and low-demand scenarios are used to forecast the emissions from unrestricted growth and a modest program of conservation| respectively. Based on these scenarios| a reference scenario is developed that projects a possible future path of automobile use and efficiency. It is found that without a dramatic increase in automobile use| fuel consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions from automobiles in the United States will probably decrease in the future| provided that efficiency continues to improve at modest rates. In theory| NGVs can help shift emissions even further down. A second objective is to quantify the role that leaking methane might play in offsetting some of the greenhouse advantages of NGVs. To do this| a simple atmospheric chemistry model is applied to the reference scenario; several leak rates and feedback factors are used to test the sensitivity of the projected greenhouse forcing from now until 2050. Committed warming beyond 2050 is not included| and the results should be interpreted with that in mind. It is highly unlikely that switching automobiles from gasoline to natural gas will appreciably lower future greenhouse forcing. Constraints on vehicle miles travelled as well as continued improvements in vehicle efficiency will make a much larger contribution towards controlling global warming. 2173,1992,2,4,LONG-TERM RESPONSE OF AN ARCTIC SEDGE TO CLIMATE CHANGE - A SIMULATION STUDY,It appears that polar regions of the Ear-th will bear the brunt of global temperature increases. Because of the ecological importance of the sedge Eriophorum vaginatum in the arctic and the large amount ot data available on its growth and physiology| we chose this species as a test case to model the potential long-term response of arctic plants to global climate change. Our simulation model utilizes a mechanistic framework and includes the effects of light| temperature| season length| nitrogen availability| and CO2 concentration on E. vaginatum growth dynamics. The model was parameterized based on a series of published studies of the growth responses of E. vaginatum to nutrients and validated using (1) field studies on the growth responses of E. vaginatum to temperature and shading| and (2) the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on E. vaginatum photosynthesis. The effect of a 50-yr period of climate change on peak biomass (overwintering biomass plus seasonal production) in E. vaginatum was explored. We use climate change here to refer to linear increases over a 50-yr period in temperature (from 8-degrees to 13-degrees-C)| season length (from 100 to 120 d)| and atmospheric CO2 (from 340 to 680 muL/L). Similarly| a wide range of nitrogen availabilities (from 9 to 18 g.m 2.vr-1) was also examined because of its importance in productivity. The model predicts that a simultaneous increase in the direct effects of temperature| season length| and CO2| with no change in nitrogen availability| will result in a slight decrease in peak biomass. A simulated long-term doubling of nitrogen availability results in an almost-equal-to 70% increase in peak biomass| whereas with concurrent changes in climate and nitrogen availability| the model predicts a slight decline in peak biomass compared to increases in nitrogen alone. In essence| the model predicts that climate change will have substantial effects on E. vaginatum only indirectly through changes in nitrogen availability. Simulated peak biomass responds linearly up to a doubling of current nitrogen availabilities. Therefore| at low-to-moderate increases in nitrogen availability| the predicted response of E. vaginatum to climate change is linearly (and almost exclusively) dependent on our ability to predict the effects of climate change on nitrogen cycling. At nitrogen availabilities > 2 x current availabilities| the relationship flattens out very rapidly because the plant becomes limited by carbon uptake. Thus| if nitrogen availabilities more than double in the future| E. vaginatum may shift from being a nutrient-limited to a carbon-limited system and| consequently| increased season length and elevated CO2 concentrations may play an important role in controlling E. vaginatum productivity.
3752,1992,3,2,MAKING BETTER USE OF CARBON .1. THE CARBON-DIOXIDE PROBLEM AND THE STEEL-INDUSTRY,It is becoming increasingly probable that emissions of carbon dioxide from the fossil fuels will have to be reduced to deal with the threat of global warming. This issue is likely to be resolved one way or the other in the period 1995 to 2000 which does not leave much time to develop responsive options. In the intervening period| the policy of the Government of Canada is to stabilize emissions of greenhouse gases at their 1990 level by 2000| by encouraging greater efficiency in the use of energy. Should further reductions prove necessary| economic instruments would probably be employed but these would not be applied before a comprehensive international agreement is reached. There are three main themes in this paper; it is assumed that measures to control carbon dioxide emissions will in fact be necessary by the turn of the century; that there will be a rising need for liquid fuels to supply the world's steadily growing fleet of motor vehicles for many years to come| and that the future niche for Canada's industry in such a carbon-constrained world will be the operation of the energy-intensive industries with efficiency and environmental sensitivity. The steel industry| as a large user of both coal and energy in other forms| would be significantly affected by a need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This paper first examines what might be called the conventional responses open to the industry in such a situation and then explores a new possibility for making better use of carbon by the co-production of iron and liquid fuels. 3741,1992,3,3,MAKING BETTER USE OF CARBON .2. THE COPRODUCTION OF IRON AND LIQUID FUELS,It is becoming increasingly probable that emissions of carbon dioxide from the fossil fuels will have to be reduced to deal with the threat of global warming. This issue is likely to be resolved one way or the other in the period 1995 to 2000 which does not leave much time to develop responsive options. In the intervening period| the policy of the Government of Canada is to stabilize emissions of greenhouse gases at their 1990 level by 2000| by encouraging greater efficiency in the use of energy. Should further reductions prove necessary| economic instruments would probably be employed but these would not be applied before a comprehensive international agreement is reached. There are three main themes in this paper: it is assumed that measures to control carbon dioxide emissions will in fact be necessary by the turn of the century; that there will be a rising need for liquid fuels to supply the world's steadily growing fleet of motor vehicles for many years to come| and that the future niche for Canada's industry in such a carbon-constrained world will be the operation of the energy-intensive industries with efficiency and environmental sensitivity. The steel industry| as a large user of both coal and energy in other forms| would be significantly affected by a need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This paper first examines what might be called the conventional responses open to the industry in such a situation and then explores a new possibility for making better use of carbon by the co-production of iron and liquid fuels. 3777,1992,4,4,MEASURES OF MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL-QUALITY,In the past| measures of marine environmental quality have focused on effects of specific stressors on ecosystem components-biochemical| genetic| physiological| pathological| behavioural and community. To measure ecosystem changes resulting from multiple stresses| such as a combination of pollutants (some local and some not) and physical habitat changes including those that might arise from global warming| it is necessary to measure attributes of whole ecosystems. These include primary productivity| nutrient cycling| species diversity| instability| disease prevalence| size spectrum and contaminant effects across trophic levels. Monitoring programmes should test hypotheses regarding changes in and effects on (a) processes| such as bioaccumulation| biomass production| respiration| reproduction and eutrophication that| if impaired| may lead to changes in ecosystem structure; and (b) the structure and key system attributes of marine ecosystems. 3678,1992,3,3,METHANE PREDICTION IN DRY AND LACTATING HOLSTEIN COWS,Data from six experiments (two with dry cows) were used to predict partitioning of gross energy to CH4 in Holstein cows using selected independent variables| some of which were intercorrelated| and a stepwise backward elimination regression procedure. Methane OutPuts ranged from 3.1 to 8.3% (mean 5.5) Of gross energy intake for 134 dry cow balance trials and from 1.7 to 14.9% (mean 5.2) of gross energy intake for 358 lactating cow energy balance trials. This is equivalent to 176 and 300 g/d or 245 and 419 L/d of cH4 for dry and lactating Holstein cows| respectively. Digestibilities Of hemicellulose and neutral detergent solubles were positive predictors| and cellulose digestibility was a negative predictor of CH4 output in dry cows fed all forage diets| but hemicellulose digestibility was not a significant variable for predicting CH4 production by lactating cows fed diets with concentrate and forages. Fiber digestibility generally remained in models to predict CH4 output. Except for one data set| regression equations accounted for 50 to 72% of the variation in percentage of gross energy partitioned to CH4 by Holstein cows. Results confirm that increased concentrate feeding reduces CH4 production. Supplementation of lactation diets with fat generally in fat digestibility| and this trait was associated with reduced CH4 output. Results enable 1) estimation of CH4 output for calculation of metabolizable energy and 2) computation of the contribution from dairy cows to global warming. 2217,1992,2,4,MODELING GLOBAL MACROCLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS ON ECTOTHERM ENERGY BUDGETS,We describe a mechanistic individual-based model of how global macroclimatic constraints affect the energy budgets of ectothermic animals. The model uses macroclimatic and biophysical characters of the habitat and organism and tenets of heat transfer theory to calculate hourly temperature availabilities over a year. Data on the temperature dependence of activity rate| metabolism| food consumption and food processing capacity are used to estimate the net rate of resource assimilation which is then integrated over time. We detail and explore the significance of assumptions used in these calculations. We present a new test of this model in which we show that the predicted energy budget sizes for 11 populations of the lizard Sceloporus undulatus are in close agreement with observed results from previous field studies. This demonstrates that model tests are feasible and the results are reasonable. Further| since the model represents an upper bound to the size of the energy budget| observed residual deviations form explicit predictions about the effects of environmental constraints on the bioenergetics of the study lizards within each site that may be tested by future field and laboratory studies. Three major new improvements to our modeling are discussed. We present a means to estimate microclimate thermal heterogeneity more realistically and include its effects on field rates of individual activity and food consumption. Second| we describe an improved model of digestive function involving batch processing of consumed food. Third| we show how optimality methods (specifically the methods of stochastic dynamic programming) may be included to model the fitness consequences of energy allocation decisions subject to food consumption and processing constraints which are predicted from the microclimate and physiological modeling. Individual-based models that incorporate macroclimatic constraints on individual resource acquisition| assimilation and allocation can provide insights into theoretical investigations about the evolution of life histories in variable environments as well as provide explicit predictions about individual| population and community level responses to global climate change.
3717,1992,3,4,MODELING THE RELEASE OF CO2 IN THE DEEP OCEAN,In order to better understand the mechanics of ocean disposal of CO2 captured from power plants| a comprehensive plume model was developed to simulate the dynamic| near-field behavior Of CO2 released in the water column as either a buoyant liquid or vapor. The key design variables in the model that can be controlled are: (1) release depth| z(o)| (2) number of diffuser ports| N| and (3) initial bubble or droplet radius| r(o). For a CO2 stream from a 500 MW power plant with 100% capture and z(o)=500 m| N=10| and r(o)=1 cm| the model predicts that the plume will rise less than 100 m. This will result in CO2 enrichment at depths greater than 400 m. Detailed predictions of local CO2 concentrations near the plume are presented and discussed. The issue of the residence time of the captured CO2 in the ocean is also addressed. We estimate a typical residence time of less than 50 years for releases of CO2 less than 500 m deep and| for a release depth of 1000 m| a residence time from 200 to 300 years. These residence times may be increased by releasing in areas of downwelling or by forming solid CO2-hydrates| which can sink to the ocean floor. 2187,1992,5,4,MODERN DISTRIBUTION OF DIATOMS IN SEDIMENTS FROM THE GEORGE-V-COAST| ANTARCTICA,Currently| little information exists concerning high frequency climate change in the Antarctic| data that are essential to gaining a more complete understanding of global climate change. Sediments from the George V Coast continental margin potentially contain a high resolution record of the late Holocene. The relatively high rate of sedimentation (approximately 3 mm/year) and the presence of laminated intervals which contain undisturbed sequences make these sediments valuable for future downcore work. In order to utilize diatom assemblages as proxies of paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic parameters| a preliminary study of the surface sediment distribution of diatoms from the George V Coast continental margin was completed. Nitzschia curta (Van Heurck) Hasle and Nitzschia kerguelensis (O'Meara) Hasle present great potential for tracking the Holocene retreat of ice across the continental shelf of this region. Concentrations of N. curta| an "ice-related" form| decreases in an offshore direction| whereas N. kerguelensis| an "oceanic" species associated with circumpolar flow| displays an increase in sediments offshore. The genus Thalassiosira Cleve displays a clear association with areas of open water primary production| as has been noted in others parts of the Antarctic. Downcore variability in relative abundance of this genus will be useful in understanding the history of sea ice versus open water production on the George V Coast shelf. In contrast| the distribution of Chaetoceros Ehrenberg resting spores appears to be more complex| but may be related to the position of the stationary ice edge associated with the annual minimal extent of sea ice. Finally| an understanding of the downcore variability of Thalassiothrix antarctica Schimper ex Karsten| a species which is very abundant in the laminated sections of the sediment cores| will have to rely on studies of its distribution in other areas of the Antarctic| as it is sparsely distributed along the George V Coast today.
3769,1992,3,3,NITROUS-OXIDE EMISSIONS IN IRRIGATED CORN AS AFFECTED BY NITRIFICATION INHIBITORS,Nitrous oxide and N2 are the major denitrification products in irrigated corn (Zea mays L.). In addition| N2O is considered a gas that contributes to global warming and stratospheric O3 depletion. Minimizing N2O emissions in cropping systems is therefore an economic as well as an important environmental concern. In a 1989 field experiment| the nitrification inhibitor encapsulated calcium carbide (ECC) (0| 20| or 40 kg CaC2 ha-1) or nitrapyrin (0.5 L a.i. ha-1) was banded with urea (218 kg N ha-1) 7 wk after planting corn. Between 1 and 14 wk after fertilization in 1989| N2O losses of 3226| 1109| 1017| and 1005 g N2O-N ha-1 from urea alone| urea plus nitrapyrin| urea plus 20 kg ECC ha-1| and urea plus 40 kg ECC ha-1| respectively| were measured from vented chambers. Nitrous oxide fluxes were positively correlated with soil NO3 levels| indicating that the nitrification inhibitors indirectly controlled N2O emissions by preventing NO3 from accumulating in the soil. Carbon dioxide emissions from the root zone were generally not affected by ECC or nitrapyrin. In 1990| losses of N2O were less than in 1989 (1651 g N ha-1 with urea alone)| probably because there were fewer irrigations. Nitrapyrin and ECC addition to urea resulted in 980 and 459 g N ha-1 N2O being emitted the second year. Nitrification inhibitors appear to be a useful tool in mitigating N2O emissions in agricultural systems. 2218,1992,3,4,ON AN INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE - GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CHANGE,The report prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Second World Climate Conference contains well-weighted assessments of the present-day state of climate studies and of the possible consequences of climate change. Since IPCC's report is supposed to be a basis for working out an International Framework Convention on Climate Change| an analysis has been made of a number of drawbacks in the consideration of the biosphere as an interactive component of the climatic system| as well as of socio-economic impacts of biospheric changes on climate change. Some thoughts have been expressed on the key components of a convention on climate change.
3700,1992,2,4,ON THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN SOUTH ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON CLIMATE AND ITS SYNCHRONISM WITH THE GLOBAL RAPID WARMING,This paper has analysed the major characteristics of long-term variation of summer monsoon climate in South Asia since 1888. An abrupt enhancement of summer monsoon in the 1920s and its synchronism with the global rapid warming have been detected by the Mann-Kendall Rank Statistic test. Based on diagnostic analysis on the atmospheric circulation over the monsoon region and the thermal conditions of both ocean and land during the period of abrupt change| it is found that the warming over land was stronger and earlier than that over the ocean| which would enhance the land-sea thermal contrast and therefore be favorable to the development of monsoon low and the disturbance in the monsoon flow. This may be a direct factor for the abrupt enhancement of summer monsoon. 3788,1992,3,2,OPTIONS FOR REDUCING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM PERSONAL TRAVEL IN EUROPE,Personal travel is an increasingly important aspect of European society. Our demand for travel| in terms of time| money and mobility| is steadily increasing. This growth has led to a number of undesirable effects| including a substantial contribution to global warming through the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). To address this issue| a number of solutions are available. Already the technology is established for highly economical cars| but experience shows that incentives or regulations are required in order to stimulate widespread interest in saving fuel. Similarly. alternative fuels can offer considerable reductions in greenhouse emissions| depending on the source of the energy. In the longer run| it is essential that technological measures are complemented by policies to reduce the need to travel| whilst still maintaining accessibility. This paper presents a list of policies that are being investigated as pan of a strategy for reducing CO2 emissions from personal travel in Britain. 3721,1992,5,3,PANGAEAN CLIMATE DURING THE EARLY JURASSIC - GCM SIMULATIONS AND THE SEDIMENTARY RECORD OF PALEOCLIMATE,Results from new simulations of the Early Jurassic climate show that increased ocean heat transport may have been the primary force generating warmer climates during the past 180 m.y. The simulations| conducted using the general circulation model (GCM) at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies| include realistic representations of paleocontinental distribution| topography| epeiric seas| and vegetation| in order to facilitate comparisons between model results and paleoclimate data. Three major features of the simulated Early Jurassic climate include the following. (1) A global warming| compared to the present| of 5-degrees-C to 10-degrees-C| with temperature increases at high latitudes five times this global average. Average summer temperatures exceed 35-degrees-C in low-latitude regions of western Pangaea where eolian sandstones testify to the presence of vast deserts. (2) Simulated precipitation and evaporation patterns agree closely with the moisture distribution interpreted from evaporites| and coal deposits. High rainfall rates are associated primarily with monsoons that originate over the warm Tethys Ocean. Unlike the "megamonsoons" proposed in previous studies| these systems are found to be associated with localized pressure cells whose positions are controlled by topography and coastal geography. (3) Decreases in planetary albedo| occurring because of reductions in sea ice| snow cover| and low clouds| and increases in atmospheric water vapor are the positive climate feedbacks that amplify the global warming. Similar to other Mesozoic climate simulations| our model finds that large seasonal temperature fluctuations occurred over mid- and high-latitude continental interiors| refuting paleoclimate evidence that suggests more equable conditions. Sensitivity experiments suggest that some combination of ocean heat transport increase| high levels of CO2| and improved modeling of ground hydrological schemes may lead to a better match with the geologic record. We speculate| also| that the record itself is biased toward "equable" climatic conditions| a suggestion that may be tested by comparing GCM results with more detailed phytogeographic analyses. 2172,1992,5,3,PAST AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE - RESPONSE BY MIXED DECIDUOUS CONIFEROUS FOREST ECOSYSTEMS IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN,During the 21st century| global climate change is expected to become a significant force redefining global biospheric boundaries and vegetation dynamics. In the northern hardwood - boreal forest transition forests| it should| at the least| control reproductive success and failure among unmanaged mixed forest stands. One means by which to predict future responses by the mixed forests is to examine the way in which they have responded to climate changes in the past. We used proxy climate data derived from Holocene (past 10 000 years) pollen records in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan to drive forest gap models| in an effort to define regional prehistoric vegetation dynamics on differing soils. The gap models mimic forest reproduction and growth as a successional process and| hence| are appropriate for defining long-term tree and stand dynamics. The modeled period included a mid-postglacial period that was warmer than today's climate. Model failures| made apparent from the exercise| were corrected and the simulations were repeated until the model behaved credibly. Then| the same gap model was used to simulate potential future vegetation dynamics| driven by projections of a future climate that was controlled by greenhouse gases. This provided us with the same "measure" of vegetation in the past| present| and future| generating a continuously comparable record of change and stability in forest composition and density. The resulting projections of vegetation response to climate change appear to be affected more by the rate than by the magnitude of climate change.
3686,1992,2,1,PAST| PRESENT AND FUTURE LEVELS OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND MODEL PROJECTIONS OF RELATED CLIMATIC CHANGES,Ice core analyses of polar ice reveal a high correlation between climatic change and variations in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane) over the last 160 000 years. Although the resolution of the data is not sufficient to determine the phase relationship between the respective variations| it is generally believed that climate change occurred first as a result of the quasi-periodic variations of the Earth's orbital parameters. However| data and model results are consistent with the hypothesis that climate and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases interact via a positive feedback loop. The more recent increase in greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times can be related to human activities. Climate models predict a significant global warming of several degrees within the next century if the industrial emissions increase unabated. On the other hand| accelerated policies on emission control will significantly reduce the warming after a response time of a few decades. 3724,1992,3,3,POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTION OF CARBON-DIOXIDE FLOODING TO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL-ISSUES,The problem of global warming illustrates the serious interrelationship between the production of energy and environmental concerns. As part of the survey on the effective use of carbon dioxide| taking the global environment into consideration| a study was carried out on the application Of CO2 in EOR as a countermeasure to global warming. This paper studies the feasibility of a total system for the stabilization of CO2 using EOR. This system involves separation and recovery Of CO2 from fixed sources in Japan| liquefaction and transportation to the oil-fields in oil producing countries| injection to the reservoir and eventual recovery and recycling. Utilization of CO2 for EOR therefore| not only increases oil production but also results in the stabilization of CO2| thus preventing further global warming. 3710,1992,5,3,POSSIBLE METHANE-INDUCED POLAR WARMING IN THE EARLY EOCENE,RECONSTRUCTIONS of early Eocene climate depict a world in which the polar environments support mammals and reptiles| deciduous forests| warm oceans and rare frost conditions 1-5. At the same time| tropical sea surface temperatures are interpreted to have been the same as or slightly cooler than present values 6. The question of how to warm polar regions of Earth without noticeably warming the tropics remains unresolved; increased amounts of greenhouse gases would be expected to warm all latitudes equally 7. Oceanic heat transport has been postulated as a mechanism for heating high latitudes 8-10| but it is difficult to explain the dynamics that would achieve this 7|11. Here we consider estimates of Eocene wetland areas and suggest that the flux of methane| an important greenhouse gas| may have been substantially greater during the Eocene than at present. Elevated methane concentrations would have enhanced early Eocene global warming| and also might specifically have prevented severe winter cooling of polar regions because of the potential of atmospheric methane to promote the formation of optically thick| polar stratospheric ice clouds 12-14. 3690,1992,2,4,POTENTIAL CARBON LOSSES FROM PEAT PROFILES - EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE| DROUGHT CYCLES| AND FIRE,Global warming and the resultant increase in evapotranspiration might lead to lowered water tables in peatlands and an increase in fire frequency. The objective of this study was to investigate some of the potential effects of these changes on peat decomposition. Dry mass losses and emissions of CO2 and CH4 from peat samples taken from three depth layers (0-10| 10-20| and 30-40 cm) of a black spruce peatland were measured in the laboratory at 8-degrees| 16-degrees| and 24-degrees-C under two moisture treatments. Effects of deep peat fire on decomposition were also simulated by burning the upper layer (0-10 cm) of peat and adding the ash to peat samples from the 10-20 cm layer. CH4 release averaged < 1% of total carbon loss in flooded samples. Release of CO2 was 4-9 times greater from the 0-10 cm layer than from the 30-40 cm layer. After 120 d| the 30-40 cm layer had lost < 1% of its original dry mass in all treatments. Higher temperatures strongly promoted decomposition of samples exposed to drying cycles but had little effect on decomposition of continuously flooded samples. Ash addition had variable effects on CO2 emissions but may have promoted CH4 production. It is suggested that in certain situations| global warming may not cause appreciable increases in carbon loss from peat deposits. The results indicate that some deeper peats are resistant to decay even when exposed to warm| aerobic conditions. However| further experimental work is needed to predict the long-term response of peat deposits to changes in water levels in different peatland types. 3766,1992,4,4,POTENTIAL CLIMATE IMPACT OF MOUNT-PINATUBO ERUPTION,We use the GISS global climate model to make a preliminary estimate of Mount Pinatubo's climate impact. Assuming the aerosol optical depth is nearly twice as great as for the 1982 El Chichon eruption| the model forecasts a dramatic but temporary break in recent global warming trends. The simulations indicate that Pinatubo occurred too late in the year to prevent 1991 from becoming one of the warmest years in instrumental records| but intense aerosol cooling is predicted to begin late in 1991 and to maximize late in 1992. The predicted cooling is sufficiently large that by mid 1992 it should even overwhelm global warming associated with an El Nino that appears to be developing| but the El Nino could shift the time of minimum global temperature into 1993. The model predicts a return to record warm levels in the later 1990s. We estimate the effect of the predicted global cooling on such practical matters as the severity of the coming Soviet winter and the dates of cherry blossoming next spring| and discuss caveats which must accompany these preliminary simulations. 2183,1992,2,3,POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE BIODIVERSITY OF PLANTS,Climatologists have observed a consistent increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past 30 years. It is predicted that CO2 levels could double the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm by the year 2100| perphaps much earlier. Climate models of doubled atmospheric CO2 predict that mean temperatures will increase between 1.5 and 4.5-degrees-C globally; these temperature changes will be greater at high latitudes. Mid-continental regions will experience lower rainfall. Predictions of species northward range shifts in response to climate change vary from 100 km to over 500 km. Historical evidence of species range movements following the Pleistocene indicate that tree species typically migrated at rates of 10 km to 40 km per century. A simulation model that predicts the migration response of trees through modem fragmented landscapes predicts migration rates much lower than Pleistocene observations. Thus migration response is likely to lag far behind rates of climatic change| potentially threatening narrowly distributed species whose predicted future ranges do not overlap with their current range. Insect pests and microbial pathogens should respond to climatic warming faster than long-lived trees. Predicted increased drought frequency may increase plant stress and thereby increase the frequency of insect outbreaks and disease. Predictions of species responses are complicated by direct effects of increased CO2| such as increased water-use. efficiency. However| response to elevated CO2 vanes among species. Thus| shifts in composition within plant communities are also likely| but are| as yet| unpredictable.
3694,1992,2,3,POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF THE INCREASE IN CARBON-DIOXIDE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DYNAMICS OF VEGETATION,The continued CO2 loading of the atmosphere appears to be responsible for inducing three new force factors controlling dynamic changes in the world's vegetation. They come from (1) enhanced fertilization with the single most important plant nutrient| (2) the widely expected global temperature increase| and (3) aggravated weather disturbances. Increased CO2 absorption may enhance plant growth but it may also increase soil-nutrient limitations. It surely will enhance the metabolism of forest trees similarly as global warming will enhance plant metabolism| but both factors may also shorten the lifespan of perennial plants. Increased weather disturbances can be expected to produce new physiological stresses on the standing vegetation| particularly on habitats with poor soils. Since wide-spread forest decline has been reported from both the Atlantic and Pacific region| it seems possible that the roughly synchronic mass mortality of trees during the past two decades is related to the global increase in CO2. The paper gives an overview of forest decline and dieback as known from past and present research and suggests how the changing atmospheric environment may interact in this widely observed contemporary Phenomenon of vegetation dynamics. 3757,1992,2,4,POTENTIAL RESPONSE OF AN ARCTIC WATERSHED DURING A PERIOD OF GLOBAL WARMING,Climatic warming presents an imposing problem to scientists everywhere. Its effect in the Arctic is accentuated for several reasons. The temperature increase is expected to be greatest in the higher latitudes and the ramifications of this warming may be more crucial there due to the melting of permafrost. Precipitation changes will likely accompany climatic warming in the Arctic| compounding the effect of a temperature increase. The interaction of changing hydrologic and thermal processes presents a complex problem which would be difficult if not impossible to analyze without the use of detailed computer modeling. To analyze the thermal impact of climatic warming on a permafrost environment| TDHC| a heat conduction model which incorporates phase change| was used. Then the response of the active layer to climatic warming was incorporated into HBV| a hydrologic model| to elucidate the effects on the hydrologic regime. Several scenarios of climatic warming have been examined to determine the impact on the active layer depth| but only results of 4-degrees-C warming at a typical arctic site will be presented here. In the case of 4-degrees-C warming| three scenarios of precipitation were studied: no change| + 15%| and -15%. The most obvious and perhaps significant response to climatic warming was an increase in active layer depth. Other changes worth noting were warming of the entire soil profile| increased soil moisture storage| increased evaporation| and variable response in runoff| depending upon the scenario. Evaporation now vies with runoff as the primary loss of moisture from the watershed. If evaporation increases due to a warmer climate| the entire character of arctic hydrology could change| depending on changes in precipitation. 3655,1992,2,4,PREDICTING EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON GROWTH AND MORTALITY OF UPLAND OAK SPECIES IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED-STATES - A PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED DENDROECOLOGICAL APPROACH,This study combined an ecophysiological model and dendroecological analyses to evaluate potential effects of global warming on the physiology| growth| and mortality of white oak (Quercus alba L.) and black oak (Quercus velutina Lam.) in the Ohio River region. The model integrated data for ecophysiology of oak species| site attributes| and daily temperature and precipitation to model nonlinear responses of stomatal conductance (g(s))| net photosynthesis (P(net))| and woody respiration (R(w)) to variations in temperature and soil water content. Relationships between modeled physiological response indices and actual white and black oak annual radial growth indices were evaluated by regression analyses| using growth and weather data for the period 1900-1987 for seven upland oak hickory forests. Modeled physiological response indices explained 40-60% of variation in radial growth indices. To evaluate the effects of global warming| daily temperature values for the period 1900-1987 were increased by 2 or 5-degrees-C| without changing precipitation values| and physiological response indices were computed. Model indices generated in warming simulations were entered into dendroclimatic regression models calibrated under conditions without any warming to predict radial growth under warming scenarios. Under the warming scenarios| OAKWBAL predicted a substantial increase in growing season R(w)| but little change in growing season P(net). Warming merely shifted the period of near-maximal P(net)| earlier in the growing season| without changing its duration. However| this result was somewhat dependent upon the ability of leaf-out phenology to track changes in temperature regime. The net effect of increased R(w)| with little change in P(net)| was a reduction in radial growth and a higher frequency of years with climatic conditions stressful to oaks on upland sites. A historical association between severe drought and increased incidence of oak growth decline and mortality indicated that global warming could increase the incidence of decline and mortality in oak populations on upland sites similar to those in this study. 3698,1992,2,3,PREDICTING THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON WILDLAND FIRE,Simulations of impacts of a double-CO2 climate with the Changed Climate Fire Modeling System in Northern California consistently projected increases in area burned and in the frequency of escaped fires compared with simulations of the present climate. However| the magnitude of those increases was strongly influenced by vegetation type| choice of atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) scenario| and choice of climate forcing variables. The greatest projected increase in fire severity occurred in grasslands| using the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM| with wind speed| temperature| humidity and precipitation as driving variables. 2190,1992,4,4,PRIORITIZING ECOLOGICAL AND HUMAN-WELFARE RISKS FROM ENVIRONMENTAL STRESSES,The ecological systems of Earth are subjected to a wide array of environmental stresses resulting from human activities. The development of appropriate environmental protection and management policies and the appropriate allocation of resources across environmental stresses require a systematic evaluation of relative risks. The data and methodologies for comprehensive ecological risk assessment do not exist| yet we do have considerable understanding of ecological stress-response relationships. A methodology is presented to utilize present knowledge for assignment of relative risks to ecological systems and human welfare from anthropogenic stresses. The resultant priorities| developed for the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) relative risk reduction project| highlight global climate change| habitat alteration| stratospheric ozone depletion| and species depletion as the highest environmental risks| significantly diverging from the present emphasis by EPA and the public on toxic chemical issues. Enhanced attention to ecological issues by EPA and development of ecological risk assessment methodologies that value ecological and economic issues equitably are key recommendations.
3776,1992,3,4,PRODUCTION OF NITROUS-OXIDE GAS DURING DENITRIFICATION OF WASTE-WATER,Laboratory-scale experiments were conducted to examine nitrous oxide (N2O) production during denitrification. Substrate containing acetate (909 mgl-1 as COD)| yeast extract (91 mgl-1 as COD) and KNO3 with COD/NO3-N of 1.5| 2.5| 3.5 and 4.5 was continuously fed to 3 1 mixed flow reactors with varied solid retention time (SRT). N2O in produced nitrogenous gas far exceeded 10% in some conditions| and up to 8% of influent NO3-N was transformed to N2O. Low COD/NO3-N| short SRT and low pH were favored conditions for N2O production. COD/NO3-N of 1.5 and 2.5 at an SRT shorter than 10 days| and COD/NO3-N of 3.5 or 4.5 at an SRT shorter than 1 day resulted in N2O production together with incomplete nitrate and nitrite removal. Lower COD/NO3-N caused higher production of N2O. N2O Production at pH of 6.5 was significantly higher than that at pH of 7.5| although pH of 7.5 and 8.5 showed less difference. The mixed liquor from the continuous reactor producing N2O readily produced N2O even when substrate with high COD/NO3-N was dosed in batch experiments| which suggests that N2O producing species may be accumulated during continuous operation in favorable conditions. 3762,1992,4,3,RADIATIVE FORCING AND GREENHOUSE-EFFECT DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERIC TRACE GASES,The radiative forcing and greenhouse effect due to the atmospheric trace gases have been calculated by using an advanced radiative-convective model developed in this paper. The relationship between radiative forcing and concentration is given for each trace gas. The results show that (i) the radiative forcing and then the greenhouse effect are significantly affected by the overlapping of atmospheric absorption bands; (ii) the increasing concentration of trace gases other than CO2| such as CH4| N2O| CFCs| etc.| may potentially play an important role in the future global warming; (iii) the proposed substitutes| such as HCFC124 and HFC125| for the chlorofluorocarbons which are considered to destroy the ozone layer have still considerable greenhouse effect even though their ozone depletion potentials are much smaller than CFCs; and (iv) the feedback processes within the earth-atmosphere system have important effect on the surface temperature change due to the radiative forcing to the system. 3782,1992,4,4,RARE AND ENDANGERED SPHAGNUM SPECIES IN NORTH-AMERICA,Thirty taxa of Sphagnum are considered rare (R)| vulnerable (V) or endangered (E) in North America| the lower 48 United States| Canada or Alaska. Six species are classified endangered or vulnerable at a global level. Maps indicating the known distribution of 18 taxa are presented. The percentage of Sphagnum taxa considered R| V or E seems lower than that for bryophytes in general. Sphagnum species should be protected because of their potential value as indicators of global warming and atmospheric pollution. 3695,1992,3,3,REALISTIC MITIGATION OPTIONS FOR GLOBAL WARMING,Policy responses to global climate change have been hampered by large uncertainties in the magnitude and timing of potential impact and the economic implications of proposed response measures. Cost-effectiveness is a key measure for comparing a broad range of options to mitigate the effects of greenhouse warming. Although the full cost of many mitigation measures is difficult to assess| analysis suggests that a variety of energy efficiency and other measures that are now available could reduce U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases by roughly 10 to 40% of current levels at relatively low cost perhaps at a net cost savings. Such measures are proposed as an initial U.S. response to global warming concerns in conjunction with other domestic and international efforts.
2205,1992,4,3,RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE ON CLIMATE CHANGE,Since industrial times| human activities caused a substantial concentration increase of carbon dioxide and some additional climate-relevant trace gases in the atmosphere. There is no doubt that this process leads to global climate change| although the quantitative and regional patterns of this change are not exactly known. Moreover| this process is in competition with natural 'climate fluctuations. This brief paper summarizes the climate model projections of anthropogenic climate change (enhanced 'greenhouse effect') and discusses some aspects of observational climatic data. 2179,1992,4,4,REGIONAL CLIMATES IN THE GISS GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL - SYNOPTIC-SCALE CIRCULATION,Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs)| however| is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change| and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics| the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation| and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is described| and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4-degrees X 5-degrees GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data| and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.
3773,1992,5,4,RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL RISE AND CLIMATE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 1500 YEARS,We constructed a detailed relative sea-level rise curve for the last 1500 years using a novel approach| i.e. charting the rate of relative sea-level rise using microfaunal and geochemical data from a coastal salt marsh sequence (Clinton| CT| USA). The composition of benthic foraminiferal assemblages and the iron abundance in peats were used to describe shifts in marsh environment through time quantitatively. The resulting sea-level rise curve| with age control from C-14 dating and the onset of anthropogenic metal pollution| shows strong increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise during modem global warming (since the late nineteenth century)| but not during the Little Climate Optimum (AD 1000-1300). There was virtually no rise in sea-level during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1700). Most of the relative sea-level rise over the last 1200 years in Clinton appears to have occurred during two warm episodes that jointly lasted less than 600 years. Changes from slow to fast rates of relative sea-level rise apparently occurred over periods of only a few decades. We suggest that changes in ocean circulation could contribute to the sudden increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise along the northeastern USA seaboard. Relative sea-level rise in that area is currently faster than the worldwide average| which may result partially from an ocean surface effect caused by hydrodynamics. Our data show no unequivocal correlation between warm periods (on a decaal to centennial time-scale) and accelerated sea-level rise. One period of acclerated sea-level rise may have occurred between about AD 1200 and 1450| which was the transition for the Little Climate Optimum to the Little Ice Age| i.e. a period of cooling (at least in northwestern Europe). Local changes in tidal range might also have contributed to this apparent increase in the rate of relative sea-level| however. The second period of accelerated sea-level rise occurred during the period of modem global warming that started at the end of the last century. 3739,1992,2,4,RESPONDING TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON UNITED-STATES COASTAL BIODIVERSITY,Accelerated rates of sea level rise and other impacts of climate change resulting from global warming are likely to aggravate threats to coastal biodiversity in the United States. Species restricted to or dependent upon a narrow band of habitat close to sea level will be subjected to continuing threats of development from above| and rising sea levels from below. In five states alone| almost 500 rare and imperiled species utilize the coastal fringe below the 10-foot contour. Some 53 species federally listed as threatened or endangered or as candidates for listing are found only within the narrow band below the 10-foot contour. Rising seas will stress coastal habitats including wetlands| barrier islands| coral reefs| and mangroves| in some cases substantially reducing their area. To ensure the conservation of coastal biodiversity global warming must be slowed as much as possible. Steps must also be taken quickly to establish coastal zone policies that allow adaptive response to rising seas by making way for the shoreward movement of coastal ecosystems as sea level changes. 2199,1992,2,4,RESPONSE OF ALLUVIAL SYSTEMS TO FIRE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YELLOWSTONE-NATIONAL-PARK,PROJECTIONS of the ecological effects of global climate change often include increased frequency and/or intensity of forest fires in regions of warmer and drier climate 1-3. In addition to disturbing biological systems| widespread intense fires may influence the evolution of the physical landscape through greatly enhanced sediment transport 4. Debris-flow to flood-streamflow sedimentation events following the 1988 fires in the Yellowstone National Park area (Wyoming and Montana| USA) have allowed us to examine the geomorphological response to fire in a mountain environment. Abundant analogous deposits in older alluvial fan sequences bear witness to past fire-related sedimentation events in northwestern Yellowstone| and radiocarbon dating of these events yields a detailed chronology of fire-related sedimentation for the past 3|500 years. We find that alluvial fans aggrade during periods of frequent fire-related sedimentation events| and we interpret these periods as subject to drought or high climatic variability. During wetter periods| sediment is removed from alluvial fan storage and transported down axial streams| resulting in floodplain aggradation. The dominant alluvial activity is strongly modulated by climate| with fire acting as a drought-actuated catalyst for sediment transport.
2214,1992,2,4,SEED AND SEEDLING BIOLOGY IN RELATION TO MODELING VEGETATION DYNAMICS UNDER GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,The distribution of many plant species will change with global climate change| depending on their ability to disperse into| and establish in| new communities. Past migrations of species under climate change have been an order of magnitude slower than the rate of predicted climate change for the next century. The limited evidence available suggests that chance long distance dispersal events will be critically important in determining migration rates. We examine the JABOWA-derived gap replacement models and vital attributes/FATE models and ask: what do we need to know about dispersal and establishment to make improved projections of vegetation dynamics under climate change using these models? The minimal modifications of these models required to incorporate directional migration of species are described. To predict establishment success of species| we suggest that a more fundamental understanding is needed of how establishment ability under different conditions relates to seed and seedling attributes and how this may be affected by elevated CO2. Finally| we examine whether plant functional types based on vegetative attributes (used to model the response of adult plants) are correlated with functional types based on seed and seedling attributes. Available evidence suggests that the two sets of attributes are not strongly correlated; consequently| models of vegetation dynamics will need to incorporate seed biology explicitly.
3669,1992,2,3,SENSITIVITY OF PACIFIC-NORTHWEST WATER-RESOURCES TO GLOBAL WARMING,The potential effect of increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases on the land surface environment is not well understood. Generally| there is some consistency among computer models of global climate that surface temperatures will increase and that| in many areas| precipitation and evaporation also may increase. However| determining the effects of such changes on the distribution and circulation of water at the land surface| and on water management systems| remains problematic. The American River| Washington| a mountainous tributary of the Yakima River| is typical of rivers in the Columbia Basin states of Washington| Oregon| Idaho| and western Montana| as well as southern British Columbia. Using the American River as a case study| this investigation developed computer models to simulate and identify water management conflicts that might arise in this region under a general climate warming of both 2-degrees-C and 4-degrees-C. For warmer climates| it was found that snow accumulation would be substantially reduced| and the river's high flow season would shift from the spring to the winter. Potential evaporation would increase throughout the year (mostly in the summer)| but peak actual evaporation would shift to the late spring and early summer| due to reduced summer soil moisture. The effect of the streamflow pattern that would accompany a warmer climate was tested on small and moderate sized hypothetical multi-purpose reservoirs. The results showed that water supply reliability would be significantly degraded by the earlier spring runoff pattern that would accompany a warmer climate| especially for small reservoirs. The result was that hydroelectric revenues might increase due to larger reservoir releases needed during the winter peak demand season. An investigation of alternative operating policies for the reservoir system showed that more efficient reservoir operation alone would not mitigate the degraded reliability of water supply that would accompany a warmer climate. 3746,1992,2,4,SEX-RATIO OF HATCHLING LOGGERHEAD SEA-TURTLES - DATA AND ESTIMATES FROM A 5-YEAR STUDY,Hatchling loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) were collected over three nesting seasons from a rookery at Cape Canaveral| Florida. From data on the distribution of nests over the season| we estimated that 92.6-96.7| 94.7-99.9| and 87.0-89.0 % of the hatchlings produced on this beach in 1986| 1987| and 1988| respectively| were females. These skewed sex ratios were consistent with the fact that for most of the season| sand temperatures were above the pivotal level for loggerhead turtles. The present results show that the female-biased sex ratio reported previously by these authors for the 1986 nesting season at this site was not an isolated| atypical event. In addition to a total of 3 years of sampling for sex ratio| measurements of beach temperatures at the depth of turtle nests were extended to cover 5 years. These temperatures were commonly above the pivotal level. The strongly female-biased hatchling sex ratio found in this population of loggerhead turtles poses theoretical challenges. It may also complicate conservation efforts| since global warming might be expected to skew the sex ratio still further toward females. 2184,1992,3,3,SHOULD WE STORE CARBON IN TREES,In order to explore for the most effective strategy for using forests to mitigate global climate change| we have constructed a simple model of C uptake during forest growth and the fate of this C when forests are harvested and used as fuel to replace fossil fuels. We suggest that trees are equally effective in preventing the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere if they remove a unit of C from the atmosphere or if they supply a sustainable source of energy that substitutes for a unit of C discharged by burning fossil fuels. The model shows that the most effective strategy for using forest land to minimize increases in atmospheric CO2 will depend on the current status of the land| the productivity that can be expected| the efficiency with which the forest harvest is used to substitute for fossil fuels| and thc time perspective of the analysis. For forests with large standing biomass and low productivity the most effective strategy is to protect the existing forest. For land with little standing biomass and low productivity| the most effective strategy is to reforest or otherwise manage the land for forest growth and C storage. Where high productivity can bc expected| thc most effective strategy is to manage the forest for a harvestable crop and to use the harvest with maximum efficiency either for long-lived products or to substitute for fossil fuels. The longer the time perspective| the more likely that harvesting and replanting will result in net C benefits.
2210,1992,4,4,SIBLING SPECIES IN MONTASTRAEA-ANNULARIS| CORAL BLEACHING| AND THE CORAL CLIMATE RECORD,Measures of growth and skeletal isotopic ratios in the Caribbean coral Montastraea annularis are fundamental to many studies of paleoceanography| environmental degradation| and global climate change. This taxon is shown to consist of at least three sibling species in shallow waters. The two most commonly studied of these show highly significant differences in growth rate and oxygen isotopic ratios| parameters routinely used to estimate past climatic conditions; unusual coloration in the third may have confused research on coral bleaching. Interpretation or comparison of past and current studies can be jeopardized by ignoring these species boundaries.
3666,1992,4,4,SINGULAR-SPECTRUM ANALYSIS - A TOOLKIT FOR SHORT| NOISY CHAOTIC SIGNALS,Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) is developed further| based on experience with applications to geophysical time series. It is shown that SSA provides a crude but robust approximation of strange attractors by tori| in the presence of noise. The method works well for short| noisy time series. The lagged-covariance matrix of the processes studied is the basis of SSA. We select subsets of eigenelements and associated principal components (PCs) in order to provide (i) a noise-reduction algorithm| (ii) a detrending algorithm| and (iii) an algorithm for the identification of oscillatory components. Reconstructed components (RCs) are developed to provide optimal reconstruction of a dynamic process at precise epochs| rather than averaged over the window length of the analysis. SSA is combined with advanced spectral-analysis methods - the maximum entropy method (MEM) and the multi-taper method (MTM) - to refine the interpretation of oscillatory behavior. A combined SSA-MEM method is also used for the prediction of selected subsets of RCs. The entire toolkit is validated against a set of four prescribed time series generated by known processes| quasi-periodic or chaotic. It is also applied to a time series of global surface air temperatures| 130 years long| which has attracted considerable attention in the context of the global warming issue and provides a severe test for noise reduction and prediction. 2192,1992,4,4,SOME REMARKS ON THE SCIENTIFIC PROBLEMS RELATED TO THE GREENHOUSE GAS ISSUE,Some of the fundamental problems related to the current approach to global climate change from modelling and observational stand points are discussed. The author offers his personal opinion and suggests caution in terms of an all out effort to understand the problem through numerical modelling based on GCMs models. At the same time he advises other approaches i.e. statistical and other studies of atmospheric phenomena different from temperature in seeking evidences of climate change. He emphazises in particular the need to find| for political reasons and as soon as possible| a clear signal that the greenhouse gas affect is being enhanced and that this has an impact on the general circulation of the atmosphere.
3732,1992,3,3,STABILIZING CO2 EMISSIONS - ARE CARBON TAXES A VIABLE OPTION,The paper provides an empirical analysis of the effect on international energy markets of policy measures to curb the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). Model calculations indicate that if CO2 emissions are to be stabilized by means of a carbon tax| very high tax levels are required. The concept of cost-effectiveness in designing a global climate convention is discussed. Due to the huge differences in pre-tax energy prices| it is argued that a uniform CO2 tax is not necessarily cost-effective. The differences in price levels also have important implications for the effects of a CO2 tax on the markets for the various fuels. 2169,1992,3,4,STRATEGIES FOR ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE - POLICY PERSPECTIVES FROM AROUND THE WORLD,The greenhouse effect is intrinsically global. Accordingly| effective responses require global coordination. While limited policies have been adopted| notably for phasing out chlorofluorocarbons| there is no clear consensus as to what to do about other greenhouse gases. In this paper| we survey attitudes and policy responses among the nations of the world. Public opinion surveys are consistent in showing that considerable sensitivity to environmental issues exists virtually everywhere. On the other hand| there is acute awareness that other issues| especially economic development| can conflict with global climate-change mitigation goals. In such a state of uncertainty there is a strong argument to be made for implementing policies which are good ideas independent of greenhouse-gas considerations. There is also good reason to expand research. What is feasible depends strongly on present and changing attitudes of the citizens of the world| and of their governments. It is thus critical to follow closely the evolution of attitudes. The kind of work summarized in this paper needs to be updated on a continuing basis| and the results made available routinely to the global policy community. We conclude our review with several recommendations for research designed specifically to reduce uncertainty about costs and institutional issues relating to responses to global climate change.
3744,1992,3,3,STRENGTHENING THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL - DOES IT COOL DOWN THE GREENHOUSE,Strengthening of the Montreal Protocol is recently being negotiated in London in 1990 in order to achieve further reductions of the regulated CFCs and to include possibly more substances. In this article the implications of different policies with respect to control of ozone depleting substances for climate change are analysed| including the proposed substitution by HCFCs and HFCs| carbon tetrachloride and methylchloroform. A special halocarbon module was developed within the framework of RIVM's Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE). IMAGE is a parameterized science based policy model and has been developed to give policy agencies a concise overview of the quantitative aspects of the greenhouse problem| to evaluate various policy options concerning climate change and to serve as a means of communication. It is concluded| from simulations with the halocarbon module| that it is of primary importance to achieve a further reduction of the regulated CFCs compared to the Montreal Protocol with compliance by as many countries as possible. From the perspective of the greenhouse effect the inclusion of longer lived halocarbons| such as carbon tetrachloride and HCFC-22 in the protocol comes second. The application of methylchloroform| halons and HCFCs and HFCs with lower global warming potentials (GWPs) than HCFC-22 contributes only marginally to the greenhouse effect in comparison with the much more important greenhouse gases carbon dioxide| methane| ozone and nitrous oxide. Especially if further growth of the total production of HCFCs after complete replacement of the present CFCs can be avoided by using these alternatives with a lower GWP| these substances could therefore be tolerated in a transition period| from the perspective of global warming. 3714,1992,3,4,SYSTEM STUDIES ON CO2 ABATEMENT FROM POWER-PLANTS,British Coal Corporation is taking a proactive stance in researching the issues associated with the possibility of enhanced global warming. One aspect of this research is the evaluation of the options which might conceivably be required if it tums out to be necessary to reduce CO2 emissions from coal fired power plants more than can be achieved by improved efficiency. A programme of assessment studies has been undertaken to evaluate the impacts on plant thermal efficiency of various options for CO2 removal for ultimate storage in some form of long term repository. Preliminary screening studies of the integration of CO2 recovery into coal fired power generation processes have indicated that routes based on Integrated Gasification Combined Cycles (IGCC) are preferred to those based on combustion. A series of options based on IGCC with CO shift is presented which compares alternative means of separating hydrogen from CO2| as required by this process route. Technologies evaluated include chemical and physical solvent scrubbing and membrane separation. This work was carried out with the intention of identifying thermally efficient flowsheets and the associated process development needs. The paper concludes by presenting economic considerations and describing British Coal's future research programme in this area. 3633,1992,4,4,TEMPERATURE AND SIZE VARIABILITIES OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL,Variabilities in sea-surface temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool were 1982 to 1991. The results show that both annual mean sea-surface temperature and the size of the warm pool increased from 1983 to 1987 and fluctuated after 1987. Possible causes of these variations include solar irradiance variabilities| El Nino-Southern Oscillation events| volcanic activities| and global warming. 3713,1992,2,4,TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON SEEDLING EMERGENCE FROM BOREAL WETLAND SOILS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE,Temperature treatments simulated global warming effects on seedling emergence of wetland species from soil seed banks of the Peace-Athabasca Delta| Alberta. Canada. Introduced weedy species. such as Tanacetum vulgare L.| bad up to a 10-fold greater emergence at high temperature (30-degrees-C for 18 h with light. 15-degrees-C for 6 h in the dark) than at low temperature (20/10-degrees-C). Seedling emergence of native weedy species| such as Calamagrostis canadensis (Michx.) Beauv.| was 1.5-3 times greater at low temperature. Other native weedy species. such as Rubus idaeus L.| emerged only from samples at low temperature. Emergence of native non-weedy species was greatest at high temperature| even though mature plants of species such as Ranunculus hyperboreus Rottb. and Carex eburnea Boott are normally found in cool and moist habitats. Of those species expected to persist in warm and dry habitats. only introduced weedy species showed consistent and significantly greater seedling emergence at high temperature. It is hypothesized| therefore. that the abundance of introduced weedy species would increase in disturbed or sparsely vegetated zones around water bodies as these zones become dry and warm with climate change. 3640,1992,2,4,THE ADAPTIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF SEASONAL REPRODUCTION IN MARINE-INVERTEBRATES - THE IMPORTANCE OF DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN MODELS,Seasonal reproduction is a dominant characteristic of the reproduction of major groups of marine invertebrates. The seasonality may be extreme culminating in very synchronised mass spawning events. Hypotheses to explain strongly seasonal reproduction are appraised in relation to demographic theory of life history which supposes that a limited resource (e.g.| energy) may be allocated to (a) maintenance and defense against the environment (respiration| excretion| ionic regulation| etc.); (b) growth; or (c) propagule production and present reproduction. Allocation to each contributes to fitness through demographic components that can be defined by the Euler-Lotka equation. Hypotheses to account for strongly seasonal reproduction must explain the mechanism that confers selective advantage to highly seasonal non-random deployment of limited resources to reproduction. The various hypotheses proposed can be classified as (I) non-functional and (II) functional. Functional hypotheses suppose that a selective advantage accrues as a consequence of energy storage prior to allocation to reproductive function. There are costs associated with this energy storage that must be compensated by the selective advantage accruing from delayed deployment of resources. A number of different functional hypotheses can be identified which may be allocated to two sets of related hypotheses: (A) Synchronisation maximises offspring survival - the optimum larval survival strategy; and (B) Synchronisation maximises fitness independently of offspring survival - the optimum fertilisation strategy. Several versions of each can be identified; their predictions are examined and discussed in relation to possible consequences of enhanced rates of environmental change (global warming). 3790,1992,3,4,THE BARRIERS TO TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE - THE CASE OF TRANSPORTATION,This paper formed the basis of a presentation at the IEA International Conference on 'Technology Responses to Global Environmental Challenges' in Kyoto| Japan 6-8 November 1991. It will examine the status of technology in the transportation sector and the penetration of that technology in both the industrialized and developing countries. The barriers and constraints to technological progress and the wider dissemination of existing technology may be grouped under five headings: The high priority given to mobility by all peoples - it is seen as the most important attribute of economic progress after achieving adequate provision for food arid shelter. The structure of urbanization in the 20th century - which has been based largely on an assumption of personal mobility and/or the availability of transportation infrastructure: roads| public transport| etc. The rapid growth in demand for leisure as a consequence of: (a) the increase in the non-working population of the industrialized countries as life expectancy has increased; (b) the reduction in both retirement age and working hours as technology advances have allowed more goods and services to be provided with substantially lower labour inputs. The desire for greater personal comfort and independence as economic circumstances improve. Institutional barriers to the transfer of technology. These problem areas will be reviewed and some general proposals put forward for enhancing the transfer of technology and resolving some of the sociopolitical issues. 3727,1992,3,3,THE BRITISH COAL GLOBAL WARMING RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM,The threat of possible global warming is sufficient to warrant 'least regrets' measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and investigation of fallback options| such as carbon dioxide removal from coal-fired power plants. The Global Warming R&D Programme is investigating carbon dioxide removal options| sometimes called 'Low CO2 Power Generation'. An assessment programme has estimated the thermal efficiency of a number of process schemes and concluded that gasification based systems| with the addition of a CO shift reactor and CO2 scrubbers or a membrane gas separator| provide promising approaches. A clean hydrogen fuel would be fired in a gas turbine and 90% of the CO2 removed and exported as a liquid stream for storage in exhausted oil or gas fields. Costs of such power plants are now being explored and a collaborative programme is commencing with membrane developers| with the aim of developing and testing membranes for this duty. The paper outlines the background and describes preparation for experimental work using CO2/H2 separating membranes. 3748,1992,2,4,THE DROUGHT OF 1988| THE GLOBAL WARMING EXPERIMENT| AND ITS CHALLENGE TO IRRIGATION IN THE OLD DUST BOWL REGION,The Great Drought of 1988 was most severe on the northernplains inthe Dakotasand Montana.Droughtwas less severe in the old Dust Bowl heartland of southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma- Texas panhandle. As the summer progressed| however| the awful combi- nation of sun| wind| and lackof rainonce again began to hammer the Dust Bowl.This region was best prepared to protect itself from lack of rain.Not only had lessons been learned the hard way from the 1930s| but local farmers| suppliers| bankers and extension agents had additionally been tested by the droughts of the 1950s and 1970s.1Calledthe "FilthyFifties|" the 1950s drought did not last as long as the one in the 1930s| but it was often as severe. Almost 21 million acres had been seriously damaged and remained vulnerable to more harm. Resettlement and reversion to grass- land no longer were acceptable alternatives. This left the search for more water as the only answer| and points of irrigationfrom groundwater were beginning to appear. Even after it rained in May 1955| and farmers could expect a good crop| 16 million acres were still ready to blow. The mid- 1970s would again bring severe drought. Orbitingearth satellite scanning in the late winter of 1977 clearly showed newly-seeded west Texas farms blowing dust into Oklahoma| while neighboring New Mexico grassland held steady.2 But now| geographer John Borchertcould write that there is "a widespread belief that| though there will be future droughts| there need be no future dust bowl."3 Most important| the south-central High Plains now enjoyed their climate substitute: widespread irrigation from large groundwater supplies.
3772,1992,2,4,THE EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE ON LARVAL FISHES,The influence of temperature on fish eggs and larvae is briefly described from an autecological viewpoint. Temperature may have lethal or sub-lethal effects as well as pacing metabolism| other physiological responses and behaviour. It influences body size| growth| differentiation of muscle and meristic characters. Increase of temperature| as would occur with global warming| will change the timing of ecological events such as the spring plankton outburst so influencing the match or mismatch of larvae with their food supply and their predators. 3701,1992,2,4,THE EFFECTS OF CHEMICAL PROPULSION ON THE ENVIRONMENT,This paper seeks to quantify the effects of chemical propulsion exhaust on both the local launch site and the global environments. Four major areas of concern are discussed: the stratospheric ozone| acid rain| toxicity| and the greenhouse effect. The environmental impacts of both solid and liquid rocket propulsion systems are evaluated. The exhaust species and launch profile of the Space Shuttle| which injects the greatest mass of exhaust products into the atmosphere of any current system| are discussed in some detail. Model calculations predict a global stratospheric ozone reduction of about 0.01% due to chemical propulsion. Acid rain due to the HCl in solid rocket exhaust has a small measurable impact on the local environment| with the mortalities of some plants and small fish very near (<2500 ft) the launch site having been documented. Based on history| the handling of potentially toxic species from the use of chemical propulsion systems is manageable. The relative contribution of chemical propulsion to the global CO2 burden| the increase of which may lead to global warming| is insignificant. It appears that the perturbation to the natural environment caused by chemical propulsion exhaust is very small and manageable| even for the most optimistic projections of future launch rates. 3738,1992,2,4,THE GLOBAL CARBON-DIOXIDE FLUX IN SOIL RESPIRATION AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO VEGETATION AND CLIMATE,We review measured rates of soil respiration from terrestrial and wetland ecosystems to define the annual global CO2 flux from soils| to identify uncertainties in the global flux estimate| and to investigate the influences of temperature| precipitation| and vegetation on soil respiration rates. The annual global CO2 flux from soils is estimated to average (+/- S.D.) 68 +/- 4 PgC/yr| based on extrapolations from biome land areas. Relatively few measurements of soil respiration exist from arid| semi-arid| and tropical regions; these regions should be priorities for additional research. On a global scale| soil respiration rates are positively correlated with mean annual air temperatures and mean annual precipitation. There is a close correlation between mean annual net primary productivity (NPP) of different vegetation biomes and their mean annual soil respiration rates. with soil respiration averaging 24% higher than mean annual NPP. This difference represents a minimum estimate of the contribution of root respiration to the total soil CO2 efflux. Estimates of soil C turnover rates range from 500 years in tundra and peaty wetlands to 10 years in tropical savannas. We also evaluate the potential impacts of human activities on soil respiration rates| with particular focus on land use changes| soil fertilization| irrigation and drainage| and climate changes. The impacts of human activities on soil respiration rates are poorly documented| and vary among sites. Of particular importance are potential changes in temperatures and precipitation. Based on a review of in situ measurements| the Q10 value for total soil respiration has a median value of 2.4. Increased soil respiration with global warming is likely to provide a positive feedback to the greenhouse effect. 3664,1992,4,4,THE GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF METHANE FROM SHALLOW SUBMARINE SOURCES,Since methane| per mole| has a global warming potential 3.7 times that of carbon dioxide (LASHOF and AHUJA| 1990| Nature| 344| 529-531) it is one of the most important greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It is therefore crucial to acquire a basic understanding of the natural global methane emission variability and inventory. Methane contained in and seeping from shallow marine sediments represents a vast| but largely uncharted source of ocean and atmospheric methane. A rough global estimate is made here on the amount of methane annually venting through the seabed from shallow marine sediments in water depths less than 250 m. The globally extrapolated estimate is based on observations of methane point sources in the North Sea. These estimates show that marine sediments probably represent an important but variable source of methane to the atmosphere. However| much more survey work and detailed measurements are needed before a more exact figure on total source strength and variability can be provided. 3728,1992,3,3,THE IEA GREENHOUSE GAS RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM,On 20th November 1991 a number of countries signed an agreement to take part in a programme of research and development aimed at potential mitigation techniques as a response to the issue of global warming. Formed under the aegis of the Intemational Energy Agency (IEA)| the programme brings together those countries interested in establishing the techniques| costs| and environmental consequences of removing CO2 from power station flue gases and storing or otherwise disposing it. Task 1 under the agreement is a three year programme covering a range of study and information dissemination activities which are described in the paper. The programme could culminate in proposals aimed at demonstration facilities should any of the technologies evaluated show sufficient promise.The project structure and work programme are described and a summary of progress to date is given. Technical study work at present in progress and planned for the future is described in outline. 3756,1992,2,3,THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON RIVER RUNOFF,River runoff from the world's major rivers is an important part of the hydrologic cycle. Runoff changes in response to global greenhouse-induced warming will have impacts in many areas| including agriculture| water resources| and land use. A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the annual river runoff for 33 of the world's major rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO2 climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4-degrees x 5-degrees| but the runoff from each model grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2-degrees x 2.5-degrees resolution. The computed runoff depends on the model's precipitation| evapotranspiration| and soil moisture storage. For the doubled CO2 climate| the runoff increased for 25 to the 33 rivers| and in most cases the increases coincided with increased rainfall within the drainage basins. There were runoff increases in all rivers in high northern latitudes| with a maximum increase of 47%. At low latitudes there were both increases and decreases ranging from a 96% increase to a 43% decrease. The effect of the simplified model assumptions of land-atmosphere interactions on the results is discussed. 3734,1992,4,4,THE IMPACT OF SNOW COVER ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE-RANGE,Many parts of the world are presently experiencing a decrease in the daily temperature range| and a number of investigators in the past have suggested that this change in climate may be related to the observed buildup of greenhouse gases. However| other geophysical variables| themselves related to increases in greenhouse gases| may be influencing the daily temperature range. In this investigation| we demonstrate a statistically significant| inverse correlation between the area of North American snow cover and the United States diurnal temperature range. Because global warming is expected to reduce the areal extent of snow cover| the results of this study reveal snow cover should act to increase the diurnal temperature range in the years to come. This climate variable appears therefore to be influencing the daily temperature range counter to other feedbacks discussed in previous studies. Ultimately| our work demonstrates that the direct linkage between the diurnal temperature range and greenhouse gases may be complicated by feedbacks associated with other geophysical variables. 3720,1992,2,3,THE LONG-TERM ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF POLLUTANTS - SOME ISSUES,In this paper we consider the long-term ecological effects of pollutants using three case-studies as examples: 'acid rain' and its effects on forests| soil and aquatic ecosystems; excess nitrogen deposition from the atmosphere and its effects on natural vegetation| and increased emission of CO2 and its possible climatic and ecological consequences. We point out that the scale of pollution arising from natural human functions is considerable given the size of the world human population. Additions to this background from industrial processes can be reduced considerably by technical means| but not eliminated entirely. The same 'contaminants' associated with industrial energy consumption (SO2| NOx| CO2) are also produced by natural processes. The sum of these three sources gives rise to a considerable 'irreducible' minimum background pollution level: the ecological consequences of this need to be explored further. 3675,1992,3,4,THE MAGNITUDE AND RELATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL-IMPACT OF AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS FROM AEROSOL INDUSTRY PRODUCTS,Aerosol industry products have in the past been a major source of CFC emissions. This situation has changed very rapidly and in developed countries CFC use has been eliminated other than in a few essential medical products. Current and likely future air pollutant emissions from aerosol industry products are evaluated in terms of their stratospheric ozone depletion potential| global warming potential and photochemical ozone creation potential. Environmental impacts of future emissions are likely to be minimal in comparison to those from other air pollution sources. 3768,1992,5,4,THE MESOZOIC HERBACEOUS LYCOPSIDS,Occurrences of lycopsid megafossils and their spores in the Mesozoic are reviewed. Subarborescent lepidodendralean forms diversified in the early Mesozoic before going extinct in the early Jurassic| although herbaceous| Isoetes-like forms-considered here also to be lepidodendraleans-survived to the present day as represented by the sole surviving genus Isoetes. Records of Isoetes-like forms from Triassic strata are considered questionable; the earliest good-quality examples that can currently be accepted are in the late Jurassic/early Cretaceous. The two other major groups of lycopsids that also survive today-the lycopodialeans and selaginellaleans-were present throughout the Mesozoic as entirely herbaceous forms. Some of them closely resemble extant species but most are less similar and some| such as Synlycostrobus with its apparently compound strobili| greatly extend our knowledge of lycopsid diversity. A few of the Mesozoic species appear to provide important and hitherto unsuspected links between there two major groups. Increasingly refined knowledge of late Paleozoic through Mesozoic lycopsids and their spores is contributing to growing precision in biostratigraphy and also in environmental changes that have affected our planet in the geological past| particularly the protracted interval of global warming that began in the late Paleozoic and continued throughout the Mesozoic. New information is presented on Mesozoic lycopsids from the United States and England| including a new species of Isoetites of Cretaceous age with well-preserved spores in situ. 3729,1992,2,4,THE ORIGIN OF REGIONAL ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS WITHIN THE NORTHERN TYUMEN OBLAST| RUSSIA,The northern areas of the Western Siberia are subjected to intensive anthropogenic pressure| mainly by the oil and gas extraction industries| reindeer herding| hunting| and fishing. Localized activities| rather than regional-scale activities have led to the degradation of the natural environment on a regional scale. These processes include (1) transfer of pollutants by water and atmosphere; (2) expansion and merging of oil and gas development sites; (3) degradation of the key wildlife habitats (reproduction sites of fish| animals| birds| migration routes| etc.); and (4) more intensive use of remaining pastures and hunting areas by the indigenous population due to loss of large areas of pasture and hunting territories to the oil and gas industries. Analysis of the existing situation within northwest Siberia suggests that in future the situation will continue to worsen unless there is significant improvement in land-use management and technology of oil and gas industry. Degradation processes may also be exacerbated by global warming. Concurrently local changes themselves may lead to negative changes on the global scale. 3789,1992,3,2,THE PASSENGER CAR AND THE GREENHOUSE-EFFECT,Concern is mounting over the possibility of global warming from the greenhouse effect. Carbon dioxide (CO2) from the combustion of fossil fuel is a major greenhouse gas| and automobile exhaust is one of its contributors. The only way to decrease CO2 emissions from a car consuming carbonaceous fuel is to decrease its fuel consumption. The best alternative fossil fuels offer a CO2 reduction of about 20%. Without introducing any new greenhouse-gas controls| it is projected that the total greenhouse-gas contribution of the average car will be halved from recent levels just through fleet turnover and already planned elimination of the current air-conditioning refrigerant. If global warming develops into a serious problem| cars can be operated without fossil fuel. Leading options include battery-electric cars using nuclear power and engine-propelled cars burning biomass-derived alcohol or hydrogen extracted from water with solar cells or nuclear power. 3683,1992,3,4,THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF TEMPERATE FORESTS AS SINKS FOR CO2 - EXAMPLES FROM THE GERMAN ENVIRONMENTAL-POLICY AGAINST GLOBAL WARMING,Among industrialized nations Germany ranks fourth in CO2 emissions. Most of these originate from the use of fossil fuels. Based on reports of a parliamentary study commission| established in 1987| and other expert groups in Germany this article adresses possible environmental effects of increasing atmospheric CO2| the sink potential of temperate forests and the influence of forest damage on this potential. A strategy for a 25 to 30% or 250 to 300 X 10(6) t yr-1 CO2 emissions reduction by 2005 (which Germany has itself committed to) is described in which measures to enhance C sequestration by forests play an important role. Expansion of forest area| a further increase of C storage by appropriate management and the restoration and protection of forest health impaired by air pollution would result in an additional storage of 17 to 20 x 10(6) t yr-1 of CO2| equaling 6 to 8% of the reduction target. 3725,1992,3,3,THE PRESENT STATUS OF CARBON-DIOXIDE REMOVAL IN JAPAN,The Action Program of Japan to arrest global warming was announced on October of 1990. As a core research organization for the purpose of tackling the growing threat the global environment problems| the research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) was established. In Japan many national laboratories| universities and private companies research new technologies and develop new processes for mitigating global warming. The present status of the research and development on CO2 removal and disposal technologies in Japan is described. 3641,1992,2,4,THE PROBABLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON INVERTEBRATE GROWTH AND REPRODUCTION WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO IRELAND,The variability of the mild Irish climate is described. The effect of a slight rise in temperature is discussed as far as aquatic organisms are concerned. The effect is likely to be most marked on pelagic populations of marine organisms such as squid and also on intertidal animals. A rise in mean sea level is an indirect result of global warming| and this is likely to have an effect on estuarine organisms and mud flat dwellers. It is suggested that those organisms which are close to the southern limits of their distribution in Ireland may disappear from our fauna. Examples are given from earlier periods and from the present-day fauna. There is likely to be an expansion of the distribution of southern forms which at the moment are near the northern limit of their range. As far as terrestrial animals are concerned| the problem of whether the rainfall pattern will also change is discussed. The likely effects of this on parasite and free-living populations (including the fauna of temporary water bodies| common in West Ireland) are discussed. The complications introduced by diapause and related factors are considered. The fauna of peat bogs may be seriously affected and also those organisms dependent on certain food plants. The peculiar problems of Ireland in having so many empty niches is considered in relation to the increased dangers of accidental introductions. 3645,1992,4,3,THE RESPONSE OF ANTARCTIC CLIMATE IN GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL EXPERIMENTS WITH TRANSIENTLY INCREASING CARBON-DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS,Coupled models of the atmosphere-ocean and land surface provide important tools for prediction of climate change. The results of experiments carried out at the Hadley Centre| Meteorological Office| in which such models have been used in studies of climate change due to increased levels of greenhouse gas concentrations are described| with particular reference to simulation of climate change in the region of Antarctica. Although| as yet| the ability of such models to represent regional climate change is relatively low| processes in the southern ocean around Antarctica are important for determining the global pattern of transient temperature change as CO2 increases. This is illustrated by results from two experiments. Firstly| an experiment with a high resolution (2.5-degrees x 3.75-degrees) atmospheric model coupled to a simple slab ocean in which the response of climate to an instantaneous doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations was examined| and which showed the largest induced warming to be in the polar regions in winter similar to the results of previous experiments carried out at the Meteorological Office and elsewhere. However| an experiment with a deep ocean model and a (more realistic) 1% per annum increase in greenhouse gas concentrations shows the pattern of global warming to be shifted to give minimum values around Antarctica as a result of deep oceanic mixing processes in the southern ocean| consistent with similar experiments carried out at other centres. 3646,1992,5,4,THE SEDIMENTARY RECORD OF ANTARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE,Circum-Antarctic marine sediments contain a record of past climate and Southern Ocean circulation that both complements and considerably extends the record in the continental ice. Variations in primary biological production| reflecting changes in sea-ice cover and sea surface temperature| in bottom current strength and the size of the grounded continental ice sheet| all contribute to changes in sediment characteristics| in a record extending back many million years. It is possible to assess both the value of the proxy record in Antarctic sediments| and the validity of the analogue approach to understanding climate change| by focusing on the last glacial cycle and| for comparison| on earlier periods that were significantly different: the Pliocene before 3 Ma ago that could provide an analogue for global warming| and the Oligocene before there was an Antarctic Circumpolar Current. 3718,1992,2,2,THE SOCIAL AND PUBLIC-HEALTH IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND THE ONSLAUGHT OF ALIEN SPECIES,Humans are engaged in an uncontrolled experiment in planetary heating. Each decade| the concentration of CO2| methane and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing by about 4%. All signs point toward unprecedented rates of warming and climate change. Many plant and animal species living in natural ecosystems will perish because they will be unable to keep up with shifting climatic zones. Warming exacerbates another biomedical problem - the influx of alien animals| plants and pathogens. These introduced species| many from the tropics| will not only increase the variety and incidence of tropical diseases| but will also affect the quality of the wilderness experience and hence| the popularity of outdoor recreation. Some personal actions and political prophylaxis are recommended. 3647,1992,5,4,THE SOUTHERN-OCEAN BENTHIC FAUNA AND CLIMATE CHANGE - A HISTORICAL-PERSPECTIVE,Environmental change is the norm and it is likely that| particularly on the geological timescale| the temperature regime experienced by marine organisms has never been stable. These temperature changes vary in timescale from daily| through seasonal variations| to long-term environmental change over tens of millions of years. Whereas physiological work can give information on how individual organisms may react phenotypically to short-term change| the way benthic communities react to long-term change can only be studied from the fossil record. The present benthic marine fauna of the Southern Ocean is rich and diverse| consisting of a mixture of taxa with differing evolutionary histories and biogeographical affinities| suggesting that at no time in the Cenozoic did continental ice sheets extend sufficiently to eradicate all shallow-water faunas around Antarctica at the same time. Nevertheless| certain features do suggest the operation of vicariant processes| and climatic cycles affecting distributional ranges and ice-sheet extension may both have enhanced speciation processes. The overall cooling of southern high-latitude seas since the mid-Eocene has been neither smooth nor steady. Intermittent periods of global warming and the influence of Milankovitch cyclicity is likely to have led to regular pulses of migration in and out of Antarctica. The resultant diversity pump may explain in part the high species richness of some marine taxa in the Southern Ocean. It is difficult to suggest how the existing fauna will react to present global warming. Although it is certain the fauna will change| as all faunas have done throughout evolutionary time| we cannot predict with confidence how it will do so. 3775,1992,3,4,THE SUGAR-CANE AGROINDUSTRY - ITS CONTRIBUTION TO REDUCING CO-2 EMISSIONS IN BRAZIL,Production of sugar cane in Brazil is 222 million tonnes (harvested wet weight)/year and is processed to sugar (7.5 million tonnes) and ethanol (11.8 million m3) in 1990. The use of fossil fuels in sugar cane production is 271 MJ/t of cane. Sugar cane bagasse and ethanol substitute for fuel oil in the food and chemical industry (including sugar production) and for gasoline (9.75 million m3/year)| thus avoiding CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Considering the fast carbon cycling in sugar cane production and use| net emissions of 9.45 million tonnes of C/year are avoided; this corresponds roughly to 18% of the total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Brazil. 2185,1992,2,4,THE TRANSIENT-RESPONSE OF VEGETATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE - A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF CO2 TO THE ATMOSPHERE,Global climate change as currently simulated could result in the broad-scale redistribution of vegetation across the planet. Vegetation change could occur through drought-induced dieback and fire. The direct combustion of vegetation and the decay of dead biomass could result in a release of carbon from the biosphere to the atmosphere over a 50- to 150-year time frame. A simple model that tracks dieback and regrowth of extra-tropical forests is used to estimate the possible magnitude of this carbon pulse to the atmosphere. Depending on the climate scenario and model assumptions| the carbon pulse could range from 0 to 3 Gt of C yr-1. The wide range of pulse estimates is a function of uncertainties in the rate of future vegetation change and in the values of key model parameters.
3712,1992,4,3,THE UNITED-STATES-DEPARTMENT-OF-ENERGY AND THE PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA-ACADEMY-OF-SCIENCES JOINT RESEARCH ON THE GREENHOUSE-EFFECT - 1985-1991 RESEARCH PROGRESS,The U.S. Department of Energy and the People's Republic of China's Academy of Sciences signed an agreement on 19 August 1987 to carry out a joint research program on the study of global warming due to enhanced greenhouse effect. The joint study is a first step toward providing opportunities for scientists in both countries to share climate information leading to a better understanding of the earth's climate system and to reliable regional climate prediction. The joint program has four tasks-analysis of general circulation models (GCMs)| preparation and analysis of proxy and instrumental data| the study of the relationship between large- and regional-scale climates| and measuring and analyzing methane emissions from rice paddy fields in China. Significant progress is being made| and this paper summarizes the research progress since 1985| including two years of scientist-to-scientist collaboration. Overall| there are over 120 publications documenting project research. Highlights of the accomplishments are described and future collaborative work is outlined. 3787,1992,3,2,THE USE OF IRON AND OTHER TRACE-ELEMENT FERTILIZERS IN MITIGATING GLOBAL WARMING,If current trends continue| before the end of the next century atmospheric CO2 levels will be about double those of a century ago. Other greenhouse gases| including methane and chlorofluorocarbons| also are increasing at similar or even higher rates. The effects of such global atmospheric changes on climate| and| thus| on agriculture| forestry and natural ecosystems| are uncertain. Only the results of the planetary "experiment" itself will provide a definitive answer. Current projections range from catastrophic to favorable. Prudence suggests that steps be taken to slow down these rapid atmospheric changes| even in the absence of a definitive estimate of risks. Natural sinks for CO2 already account for the disappearance of as much as 60% of anthropogenic CO2 production due to fossil fuel combustion| deforestation| and soil organic carbon oxidation. Thus| current rates of increases in atmospheric CO2| about 0.4% per year| could be cut in half by reducing anthropogenic CO2 outputs by 20%| or increasing sinks by a similar amount. Such a reduction would significantly reduce the risks of major climatic changes. Programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are being instituted in Japan and Europe| but not in the U.S. or most other countries. Reduction of CO2 buildup must focus on the reduction of the major sources - fossil fuel usage| deforestation| soil carbon oxidation - and on increasing sinks. The only practical methods for increasing CO2 sinks are based on photosynthesis| primarily through increased C storage in standing tree biomass| the use biomass as substitutes for fossil fuels| and| possibly| through the stimulation of ocean primary productivity by iron fertilization. Fertilizing forests and oceans with iron and other trace elements to increase primary productivity and CO2 sequestration is an attractive concept. Application of small quantities of trace elements| could| in principle| result in the sequestration of many tons of CO2. Iron limits primary productivity in some ocean areas. How to practically fertilize the oceans with iron| the environmental impacts of such additions| and their effectiveness in reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are controversial issues. Long-term studies of ocean fertilization will be required| and such schemes can not be included in current global warming mitigation options. Iron and other trace elements are often limiting factors in agriculture| and many reports exist of such limitations in managed forestry. However| it is presently unclear how widespread such deficiencies are in managed forests| and global effects on CO2 balances can not be projected. Fertilization with major nutrients - P| K| and N - is often effective in stimulating forest productivity and could be an economical approach to large-scale CO2 sequestration. Increased forest fertilization with major nutrients will| in many cases| also require applications of some trace elements. In conclusion| forest fertilization with trace elements and even major nutrients could be an affordable and near-term method of reducing future global warming. 2216,1992,4,4,THE USE OF NATURAL C-14 AND C-13 IN SOILS FOR STUDIES ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,Some examples are given to show that the depth distribution curves of natural C-14 and C-13 of thin-layer sampled soil profiles can be used for inferring changes in soil organic matter and climate changes. By using a simple exchange model| we r-an determine whether decomposition products are fixed by clay or transported downward toward the groundwater table. We can also estimate the amount of the Greenhouse gases| CO2 and CH4| produced by the decomposition of the organic matter in terrestrial and paddy soils and emitted from the soil. A change from C3 to C4 plants| which might occur during a predicted temperature rise in some areas| thereby influencing the carbon balance| can be clearly detected by the deltaC-13 depth profiles. A change in organic matter input can also be calculated under certain circumstances.
3770,1992,4,4,THE WORK INTENSITY FUNCTION IN THE DETECTION OF GREENHOUSE INDUCED GLOBAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS,A work intensity function is defined as the product of the frequencies exhibited by a column in a histogram and the magnitude of the midpoint of the class interval of the column. An intensity distribution is defined as the cumulative sum of the function along the abscissa. These functions are examined first for a normal distribution| and then for the expected deviations shown by a sample assumed to be drawn from a normal distribution. The theoretical maximum of the intensity is found at one standard deviation for the normal distribution and at square-root 2 s.d. (standard deviation) for a sample drawn from a normal distribution. The cumulative sum of the intensity is more biased towards outlying values of larger magnitude for the sample than for the normal distribution. 10% of the cumulative sum of the intensities is generated at s.d. greater than 3 for the sample compared to only 1% for the normal distribution itself. These statistics are compared with similar ones computed for the Jones-Parker (1991) series of mean global surface temperature anomaly interannual differences. The agreement between theory and the data series is good. The data series appears to possess those properties which would be expected of it if the series was a sample drawn from a normal distribution. It is concluded that the work intensity and its cumulative sum are useful tools in diagnosing the behaviour of a population of anomaly values. These statistics do not clarify the problem of identifying a greenhouse gas induced global warming but they do suggest that its identification continues to be as difficult as ever| due to the effect of occasional outlying values. 3644,1992,4,4,THERMAL-DIFFUSIVITY OF THE ALTERNATIVE REFRIGERANTS R123| R134A| R142B AND R152A IN THE LIQUID-PHASE,The thermal diffusivity of the refrigerants 1|1-dichloro-2|2|2-trifluoroethane (R123)| 1|1|1|2-tetrafluoroethane (R134a)| 1|1-difluoroethane (R152a) and 1-chloro-1|1-difluorethane (R142b) with low ozone depletion potential (ODP) and low global warming potential (GWP) has been measured at different pressures in a wide temperature range below the critical point. These substances are proposed as substitutes for the traditional refrigerants especially R123 for Rll| R134a and R152a for R12 and R142b for R114. The measurements were carried out using the photon correlation spectroscopy (PCS). The measured values of the thermal diffusivity axe presented as a function of temperature and compared with those of the traditional refrigerants. The thermal diffusivities of the possible substitutes can be up to 70% higher or lower than the traditional refrigerants. 3707,1992,3,4,THROWING STONES IN THE GREENHOUSE,The debate about global warming has only recently developed into a truly 'global' debate. Recent reports and commentaries coming from the South have presented the developing countries' perspective on the global situation. The current debate challenges assumptions in the North and suggests that all countries should look first to their own role in the development of the problem| and the solution to it.
3636,1992,4,2,TIME-DEPENDENT GREENHOUSE WARMING COMPUTATIONS WITH A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL,Climate changes during the next 100 years caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have been simulated for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scenarios A ("business as usual") and D ("accelerated policies") using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. In the global average| the near-surface temperature rises by 2.6 K in Scenario A and by 0.6 K in Scenario D. The global patterns of climate change for both IPCC scenarios and for a third step-function 2 x CO2 experiment were found to be very similar. The warming delay over the oceans is larger than found in simulations with atmospheric general circulation models coupled to mixed-layer models| leading to a more pronounced land-sea contrast and a weaker warming (and in some regions even an initial cooling) in the Southern Ocean. During the first forty years| the global warming and sea level rise due to the thermal expansion of the ocean are significantly slower than estimated previously from box-diffusion-upwelling models| but the major part of this delay can be attributed to the previous warming history prior to the start of present coupled ocean-atmosphere model integration (cold start). 3663,1992,2,4,TIMING AND PATTERNS OF VISIBLE AUTUMN MIGRATION - CAN EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING BE DETECTED,For 21 years| diurnal migration of 46 bird species was observed under standardized conditions at Randecker Maar| SW Germany. The data are examined as to whether changes in median dates of passage of these species can be detected. For this purpose the data were analysed separately for three periods| i. e. 1970-76| 1977-83 and 1984-90. In 1970 to 1983| according to meteorological data the weather-related onset of autumn was delayed by five days in northern Germany and by six days in southern Germany. During the last observation period| 19 (67 %) of the 28 passerine short-distance migrants passed on average up to 10 days later compared to the first observation period. In 14 of these species the median dates changed continuously. Only 5 species migrated earlier than before- The majority of the short-distance migrants| therefore| seems to have adapted to the later onset of autumn. Currently there seem to be no plausible reasons for delayed migration other than climatic changes. The median dates in Non-Passerines were less clear-cut. Among short-distance migrants| delayed migration was found in 5| advanced migration in 4 species and among long-distance migrants| delayed migration was noted in 4 species| advanced migration in 3 species. Short-distance migrants may gain advantages from a longer stay on their Central European breeding grounds. Populations departing late should tend to become resident| thus advancing the median date for the fractions of population still migrating. Even advanced migration may thus be explained by global warming. Long-distance migrants| however| may only occasionally profit from a longer stay on their breeding grounds. Their arrival south of the Sahara coinciding with the short monsoon rainfalls probably has greater selective significance| Deviations in arrival times caused by climatic changes may thus lead to catastrophies as is currently discussed in the case of Tawny Pipit. The influence of global warming on bird migration and the changes in migration patterns ensuing from it were to be expected after laboratory results. Here| this influence is shown in a long-term study of free-living populations of a large number of species. 3784,1992,2,4,TO LIVE IN HARMONY WITH THE SEA - AN ENVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR THE NEXT 3 GENERATIONS,The severe urban development pressures on Japanese coastal zones are epitomized in Sagami Bay| one of Tokyo's key recreational destinations. Besides facing grave uncertainties of global warming and tectonic dynamics| this 30-km coastal zone is a stage of many conflicts: between residential growth and recreational facilities| between dwindling natural beach sites and highway construction| and between watersports and fishery. Outlined here is a radical approach in eight steps| to be implemented over the next three generations. It calls for the abolishment of conventional development ideas in favor of the concept of "envelopment" instead. This article is derived from the top prize-winning entry to an international idea contest that generated 293 proposals from 27 countries| as well as thousands of children's drawings. It was sponsored by the Sagamiwan Urban Resort Festival in 1990 Association| the Kanagawa Prefectural Government| as well as by the city authorities and municipal governments of Yokosuka| Hiratsuka| Fujisawa| Odawara| Chigasaki| Zushi| Miura| Hayama| Oiso| Ninomiya| Manazuru| and Yugawara. Additional support was provided by the American Shore and Beach Preservation Association| the Coastal Zone Foundation| and the International Coastal and Ocean Organization. 2178,1992,4,4,TOGA COARE - THE COUPLED OCEAN ATMOSPHERE RESPONSE EXPERIMENT,Despite significant progress in the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program| a number of major hurdles remain before the primary objective| prediction of the variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on time scales of months to years| can be achieved. Foremost among these hurdles is understanding the physics that maintains and perturbs the western Pacific warm pool| the region of the warmest sea surface temperature in the open oceans| which coexists with the largest annual precipitation and latent heat release in the atmosphere. Even though it is believed that the warm pool is a "center of action" for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena in the ocean and the atmosphere| successful simulation of the warm pool has remained an elusive goal. To gain a clear understanding of global climate change| the ENSO phenomenon| and the intraseasonal variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system| it is clear that a better specification of the coupling of the ocean and the atmosphere is required. An observational and modeling program| the TOGA Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE)| has been designed to work toward this goal. The scientific goals of COARE are to describe and understand: 1) the principal processes responsible for the coupling of the ocean and the atmosphere in the western Pacific warm-pool system; 2) the principal atmospheric processes that organize convection in the warm-pool region; 3) the oceanic response to combined buoyancy and wind-stress forcing in the western Pacific warm-pool region; and 4) the multiple-scale interactions that extend the oceanic and atmospheric influence of the western Pacific warm-pool system to other regions and vice versa. To carry out the goals of TOGA COARE| three components of a major field experiment have been defined: interface| atmospheric| and oceanographic. An intensive observation period (IOP)| embedded in a period of enhanced meteorological and oceanographic monitoring| will occur from November 1992 through February 1993 in the western Pacific region bordered by 10-degrees-N| 10-degrees-S| 140-degrees-E| and the date line. The experimental design calls for a complex set of oceanographic and meteorological observations from a variety of platforms that will carry out remote and in situ measurements. The focus of the observational effort will be in an intensive flux array (IFA) centered at 2-degrees-S and 156-degrees-E. The resulting high-quality dataset is required for the calculation of the interfacial fluxes of heat| momentum| and moisture| and to provide ground truth for a wide range of remotely sensed variables for the calibration of satellite-derived algorithms. The ultimate objective of the COARE dataset is to improve air-sea interaction and boundary-layer parameterizations in models of the ocean and the atmosphere| and to validate coupled models.
3735,1992,2,4,TOWARD A RULE-BASED BIOME MODEL,Current projections of the response of the biosphere to global climatic change indicate as much as 50% to 90% spatial displacement of extratropical biomes. The mechanism of spatial shift could be dominated by either 1) competitive displacement of northern biomes by southern biomes| or 2) drought-induced dieback of areas susceptible to change. The current suite of global biosphere models cannot distinguish between these two processes| thus determining the need for a mechanistically based biome model. The first steps have been taken towards the development of a rule-based| mechanistic model of regional biomes at a continental scale. The computer model is based on a suite of empirically generated conceptual models of biome distribution. With a few exceptions the conceptual models are based on the regional water balance and the potential supply of water to vegetation from two different soil layers| surface for grasses and deep for woody vegetation. The seasonality of precipitation largely determines the amount and timing of recharge of each of these soil layers and thus| the potential mixture of vegetative life-forms that could be supported under a specific climate. The current configuration of rules accounts for the potential natural vegetation at about 94% of 1211 climate stations over the conterminous U.S. Increased temperatures| due to global warming| would 1) reduce the supply of soil moisture over much of the U.S. by reducing the volume of snow and increasing winter runoff| and 2) increase the potential evapotranspiration (PET). These processes combined would likely produce widespread drought-induced dieback in the nation's biomes. The model is in an early stage of development and will require several enhancements| including explicit simulation of PET| extension to boreal and tropical biomes| a shift from steady-state to transient dynamics| and validation on other continents. 2206,1992,2,3,USE OF A RESERVOIR WATER-QUALITY MODEL TO SIMULATE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON FISH HABITAT,A case study was conducted on the potential impacts of climate change on fish habitat in a southeastern reservoir. A reservoir water quality model and one year of baseline meteorologic| hydrologic| and inflow water quality input were used to simulate current reservoir water quality. Total adult striped bass habitat| defined by specific quantitative temperature and dissolved oxygen criteria| was simulated. Daily reservoir volumes with optimal| suboptimal| and unsuitable temperature and DO were predicted for the year. Output from recent runs of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs)| in which atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have been doubled| was then used to adjust the baseline inputs to the water quality model. New sets of input data were created for two grid cells for each of three GCMs. All six climate scenarios are predicted to cause overall declines in the available summer striped bass habitat| mostly due to lake water temperatures exceeding striped bass tolerance levels. These predictions are believed to result from the consensus among GCM scenarios that air temperatures and humidity will rise| and the sensitivity of the reservoir model to these parameters. The reservoir model was found to be a promising tool for examining potential climate-change impacts. Some of the assumptions required to apply GCM output to the reservoir model| however| illustrate the problems in using large-scale grid-cell output to assess small-scale impacts.
3670,1992,2,4,USING MONTANE MAMMALS TO MODEL EXTINCTIONS DUE TO GLOBAL CHANGE,We use data on the species-area relationship and the nested subset structure of the boreal mammal faunas inhabiting isolated mountaintops in the Great Basin to develop a simple quantitative model that predicts the number and identity of species that would go extinct under an assumed scenario of changing climate and vegetation Global warming of 3-degrees-C is predicted to cause the loss of 9-62% of the species inhabiting each mountain range and the extinction of three of fourteen species throughout the region. These results suggest (1) that it is possible to make highly plausible predictions about the susceptibility of species to extinction without detailed information about their population biology| and (2) that global and regional environmental changes seriously threaten the survival of species that are restricted in distribution to both natural "habitat islands" and biological reserves. 3638,1992,2,4,VARIATION IN NUCLEAR-DNA AMOUNT BETWEEN WILD AND CULTIVATED POPULATIONS OF MILIUM-EFFUSUM (2N = 28),Mean 2C DNA amounts varied by 35.6%| ranging from 7.52 to 10.20 pg| between 10 populations of the grass Milium effusum L. Such intraspecific variation occurred despite a constant chromosome number (2n = 28) and no obvious differences in karyotype. Plants originating from botanic garden populations growing in cultivation had significantly (P < 0.001) larger DNA amounts than plants collected from wild populations. Moreover| variation in DNA amount within either the ''cultivated'' or the ''wild'' groups was not significant. As the environment in which plants are kept in botanic gardens is clearly different to the natural habitat for M. effusum| it seems likely that the difference in nuclear DNA amount is causally related| perhaps through its nucleotypic effects| to microclimate adaptation. These results suggest that at least some genotypes of M. effusum are fluid and sensitive to environmental change. Such data may have broad practical importance regarding plant responses to various environmental changes such as a nuclear winter and global warming| and implications for plant conservation and reintroduction. Milium effusum is a potentially useful plant material for studying the nature of intraspecific variation in DNA amount. 3681,1992,4,3,WHY UNDERSTANDING THE NATURAL SINKS AND SOURCES OF CO2 IS IMPORTANT - A POLICY ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE,The mechanisms that regulate the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere| the carbon cycle| is an integral part of the analysis of the greenhouse issue. The present understanding of the carbon cycle is inadequate to the purpose of assessing the relationship between future anthropogenic emissions and concentrations of atmospheric CO2. The most important problem is that natural science cannot presently explain the relationship between present and past anthropogenetic emissions and concentrations. Sinks for CO2 are inadequate to explain present and past dispositions of emissions. This deficiency in scientific understanding leads to uncertainty in the analysis of potential future emissions and atmospheric CO2 accumulation| and to uncertainty in the specification of other policy analysis instruments such as global warming potential coefficients. 2177,1992,3,3,WORLD OIL AND ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK TO 2005,The outlook for world oil demand is examined within a framework which takes account of total energy demand and the availability of oil supplies over the period to 2005. The major assumptions and uncertainties| as well as the model and rationale which underly the outlook| are discussed. The analysis points to a 30% rise in world oil demand and an 85% rise in the demand for Middle East oil between now and 2005| with a concomitant gradual rise in influence of Middle East producers over oil prices. However| major new global initiatives by governments| for example to mitigate climate change| could significantly alter the outlook by appreciably reducing the future growth in oil demand.
4018,1993,3,4,A CATALYTIC PROCESS FOR THE DECOMPOSITION OF NITROUS-OXIDE,Environmental issues such as global warming and ozone layer depletion are now of universal concern. One compound not previously associated with these concerns is nitrous oxide (N2O). Worldwide efforts to reduce anthropogenic emissions are underway. One industrial application that has recently emerged is N2O abatement from adipic acid plants (in connection with nylon 6|6 manufacture). One possible solution| the catalytic decomposition of N2O| has long been studied but mainly from an academic standpoint. Some catalysts based on the earlier work were evaluated under pseudo-industrial conditions. It is concluded that many factors (e.g. intrinsic activity| stability| selectivity) limit the choice of catalyst for this application and that any useful catalyst should be operated within the confines of a process to reduce the rate of thermal deactivation and suppress secondary reactions such as NOx formation. This paper highlights the features of a catalyst and a catalytic process that can be used to effectively decompose N2O into its constituent parts| namely nitrogen and oxygen. The catalytic process is offered for license under the ElimiNox service mark. 2677,1993,2,4,A GENERAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CO2-INDUCED REDUCTIONS IN STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE AND CONCOMITANT INCREASES IN FOLIAGE TEMPERATURE,Simultaneous measurements of the temperatures and stomatal conductances of leaves of sour orange trees growing in normal and CO2-enriched air| together with similar data for water hyacinths and cotton| suggest that a plant's foliage temperature response to atmospheric CO2-enrichment is directly proportional to its degree of stomatal closure| i.e. that plants that experience a greater stomatal closure in response to atmospheric CO2 enrichment experience a greater warming of their foliage. The data also suggest that this primary relationship may be modified by CO2-induced changes in leaf chlorophyll content that may have implications for global climate change.
4076,1993,4,3,A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS (GWPS),In order to quantitatively compare the greenhouse effect of different greenhouse gases a global warming potential (GWP) index has been used which is based on the ratio of the radiative forcing of an equal emission of two different gases| integrated either over all time or up to an arbitrarily determined time horizon. The GWP index is analogous to the ozone depleting potential (ODP) index. However| the GWP index is subject to major conceptual difficulties arising from the fact that the atmospheric lifespan for part of the emitted CO2 is| for all practical purposes| infinite. In addition| there are major uncertainties in the atmospheric lifespans and indirect heating effects of the important greenhouse gases| which are reviewed here. An alternative GWP index is proposed which explicitly takes into account the duration of capital investments in the energy sector and is less sensitive to uncertainties in atmospheric lifespans and radiative heating than the usual GWP index for time horizons longer than the lifespan of the capital investment. The effect of the GWP index proposed here| compared with previous indices| is to shift attention away from short lived gases such as methane and toward CO2. 4009,1993,5,3,A MODEL STUDY OF ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND THE CONCENTRATIONS OF OZONE| HYDROXYL| AND SOME OTHER PHOTOCHEMICALLY ACTIVE GASES DURING THE GLACIAL| THE PREINDUSTRIAL HOLOCENE AND THE PRESENT,Analysis of air trapped in ice cores shows that the atmospheric contents of the greenhouse gases CO2| CH4 and N2O have increased from the glacial to the pre-industrial holocene. Further increases have been occurring during the industrial era. This may well have contributed to the observed global warming. In addition| CH4 and N2O play large roles in ozone and hydroxyl chemistry. Here we present a model analysis of the changes in atmospheric temperatures and the concentration of O3| OH and related gases between the three epochs. Surprisingly| despite large changes in the atmospheric contents of CO2| CH4 and N2O| total ozone and tropospheric OH hardly changed between the glacial and pre-industrial holocene. The global annual atmospheric CH4 sink increased from 90 to 210 Tg (10(12) g) between the glacial and pre-industrial and since then to 510 Tg| largely following the changes in atmospheric concentrations. The corresponding figures for N2O are 7.8| 11.6 and 13.3 Tg. Our results indicate less than half as much CH4 production from tropical wetlands during the ice age than during the holocene. 3967,1993,4,4,A NEW CLOCHE DESIGN FOR ELEVATING TEMPERATURE IN POLAR TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS,A clocbe design is described that is suitable for elevating temperature to simulate global warming in polar ecosystems. This cloche system was used in a manipulation experiment near Ny Alesund| Spitsbergen| Svalbard. An average warming of 2.8 deg. C. was produced over a 60 day growing season| well within the range predicted by present climate models. The elevation effect is shown to be consistent over the diel cycle and throughout the short arctic summer season. Several advantages over previous designs of manipulation unit are highlighted. 4010,1993,4,4,A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON RECENT GLOBAL WARMING - ASYMMETRIC TRENDS OF DAILY MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE,Monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures for over 50% (10%) of the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere landmass| accounting for 37% of the global landmass| indicate that the rise of the minimum temperature has occurred at a rate three times that of the maximum temperature during the period 1951-90 (0.84-degrees-C versus 0.28-degrees-C). The decrease of the diurnal temperature range is approximately equal to the increase of mean temperature. The asymmetry is detectable in all seasons and in most of the regions studied. The decrease in the daily temperature range is partially related to increases in cloud cover. Furthermore| a large number of atmospheric and surface boundary conditions are shown to differentially affect the maximum and minimum temperature. Linkages of the observed changes in the diurnal temperature range to large-scale climate forcings| such as anthropogenic increases in sulfate aerosols| greenhouse gases| or biomass burning (smoke)| remain tentative. Nonetheless| the observed decrease of the diurnal temperature range is clearly important| both scientifically and practically. 4060,1993,2,4,A POSSIBLE MECHANISM RELATING INCREASED SOIL-TEMPERATURE TO FOREST DECLINE,Nutrient cations are removed from the soil by uptake in biomass| and by leaching as a result of soil acidification. Such acidification results from acid deposition and/or from HNO3 formed by mineralization and nitrification of humus| when at a rate in excess of the tree's nutritional requirements. This has been found to occur during and follwing periods of increased temperature and reduced rainfall. The cumulative loss of either Ca2+| Mg2+ or K+ by one or more of these processes| if greater than the amount released from the specific minerals in that soil| leads to nutrient deficiency| fine root mortality| poor growth| and eventually to die-back. Trees growing in soils derived from specific minerals in which there is a strong imbalance in the elements from which the exchangeable nutrients are formed| are vulnerable to nutrient deficiency. This paper discusses the relevance of earlier studies| when considered in relation to more recent findings. In Hawaii there have been frequent periods of increased temperature and drought resulting from the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This fact| when considered in relation to the relatively low K content| and its imbalance with Ca and Mg in the lava and volcanic ash on which the trees have grown| could result in K deficiency in the declining ohia trees. It is possible that the unusual periods of increased temperature and drought which have occurred in certain other localized areas may have led to the decline symptoms recently observed. In view of the threat of global warming| this possibility should be investigated. 4033,1993,2,4,A PRELIMINARY NOTE ON RAINFALL AND VEGETATION TRENDS IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN CAPE - 1985-1988,Changes in the distribution of vegetation and rainfall over the south-western Cape from 1985 to 1988 were analysed. The density of photosynthetically active biomass was determined from visible satellite imagery using internationally accepted algorithms. Trends in rainfall were evaluated on the coastal plain to the south of 33-degrees-S and over the elevated interior to the north of 33-degrees-S. During the study period| rainfall exhibited a declining trend over the coastal plains. In contrast| the elevated interior experienced a three-fold increase. In response| photosynthetic activity within the coastal belt declined| whereas the interior Karoo region was replenished with vegetation including savanna-type shrubs and grasses. Changes in the distribution of rainfall and vegetation may be explained by a southward shift of the sub-tropical and mid-latitude climate zones. Such a shift could become a permanent feature in a global-warming scenario| and focusses attention on the plight of marginal agricultural zones in the face of increasing drought and human stress. 4029,1993,3,3,A PROPOSAL FOR THE CLASSIFICATION OF TOXIC-SUBSTANCES WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT OF PRODUCTS,Quantitative life cycle assessment (LCA) is a method allocating the environmental impacts of the whole life cycle of a product to the functioning of that product. The scientific basis of the method is still being elaborated. In this paper a proposal is made to improve the scientific basis of one specific step of the method: the aggregation of potentially toxic emissions of substances in one score for human toxicity and two scores for ecotoxicity. The aggregation is based on multimedia environmental models of Mackay simulating the behaviour of substances in the environment| and on toxicity data such as acceptable resp. tolerable daily intake (ADI resp. TDI) and no observed effect concentration (NOEC) per substance. It is proposed to apply models describing the environmental fate of toxic substances in LCAS Of products. In addition| it is proposed to adopt the concept of a reference substance| as used in the ozone depletion potential (ODP) and the global warming potential (GWP)| to assess and aggregate emissions of potentially toxic substances. 4062,1993,4,4,A REEXAMINATION OF THE POLAR HALOCLINE CATASTROPHE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR COUPLED OCEAN ATMOSPHERE MODELING,In this paper| the physical mechanism of the polar halocline catastrophe (PHC) is reexamined with emphasis on the role played by the surface heat flux. It is argued that| in a coupled ocean-atmosphere system| thermal changes in the atmospheric state in response to changes in heat flux from the ocean weaken the feedback responsible for the PHC. So far| the PHC has been observed in models that use mixed boundary conditions; that is| the freshwater flux is specified| but the surface temperature is relaxed to a specified value. Previous explanations of the PHC have focused on the role of the freshwater flux in establishing a freshwater cap and shutting off the deep convection. However| the establishment of a freshwater cap reduces the depth of the water column that is cooled by surface heat loss. As a consequence| the surface temperature is reduced. Since the difference between this and atmospheric restoring temperature is now less| there is a corresponding reduction in the surface heat loss to the atmosphere| and this acts to further stabilize the water column. We examine the importance of this reduction in surface heat loss by considering two numerical experiments that are identical except that one is run under mixed boundary conditions and the other under a flux boundary condition applied to temperature as well as salinity. In each case| the surface fluxes are diagnosed from an experiment run to equilibrium using restoring boundary conditions on both fields. This also provides the initial state for both experiments. A PHC is easily induced in the mixed boundary condition case but not in the case using flux boundary conditions. By reducing the magnitude of the heat flux but not its sip| a pool of fresh water appears at the surface| but its effect is weaker than that under mixed boundary conditions and| in particular| there is no collapse of the meridional overturning circulation. A pool of fresh water also appears in an experiment in which a small| positive heat flux is added at all latitudes| a situation of relevance to global warming. This leads to an initial cooling in a shallow layer at the surface of the polar oceans| before heating at lower latitudes leads to a collapse of this state. These experiments show that the reduction in the surface heat flux that occurs when the PHC develops under mixed boundary conditions is an essential feature of the PHC. The use of mixed boundary conditions assumes that the atmospheric state is fixed and does not respond to changes in heat flux from the ocean. If the atmosphere were allowed to adjust to changes in this heat flux| then a PHC would be less likely to occur. This has been demonstrated by coupling the ocean model to the zero-heat-capacity atmospheric model used by Schopf. This is justified| following Bretherton| because of the large horizontal scale of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the experiments. The authors were unable to induce a PHC with this model. In reality| the atmospheric boundary condition seen by the ocean lies somewhere between the two extremes of mixed boundary conditions| on the one hand| and Schopf's model on the other. We have investigated this intermediate region by conducting experiments in which SST anomalies are damped on successively shorter time scales. These show that if the damping time is reduced sufficiently| a PHC can again be induced. 3954,1993,3,4,A UK GREENHOUSE-GAS INVENTORY - ON ESTIMATING ANTHROPOGENIC AND NATURAL SOURCES AND SINKS,The Climate Change Convention requires signatory countries to calculate inventories of greenhouse-gas emissions from anthropogenic activities| and from natural sources and sinks. This paper presents estimations for the Ut(| an industrialized temperate country with intensive land-use and little natural vegetation cover. The UK's 1988 anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions total 183 million tons (metric). When the net sequestration from soil and biomass is included in aggregate carbon dioxide emissions| this total is reduced by only 0.72%. Net emissions increase however for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) from the land-use sector. There is a need for a clear definition of the distinction between natural and anthropogenic sources where the capacity of the biosphere to act as a sink is limited by human intervention| In the method adopted here| distinction is made between emissions from activities not associated with biological activity| defined as anthropogenic| and exclusively from biological processes| with or without human intervention. The relative contributions of the different gases is also significantly affected by the time horizon| and hence the assumed global warming potential adopted for the analysis. 4040,1993,2,6,ABSENCE OF SCIENTIFIC BASIS,Current concerns over significant global warming are based on simple| plausible physical arguments that increasing CO2 levels will lead to some warming. Model predictions of large warming depend on projected large increases in atmospheric CO2| and mechanisms within the models which act to greatly amplify the climate response to increasing CO2. The projections depend on questionable economic| population| and energy scenarios; they also depend on clearly inadequate chemical models which serve to exaggerate the fraction of emitted CO2 remaining in the atmosphere. The amplification mechanisms (positive feedbacks) depend on what is likely to be a severe misrepresentation of the relevant physical processes: moisturization of the atmosphere and cloud formation. Recent data suggest that these processes may be acting in a manner opposite to what current models produce. Under the circumstances| the possibility of large warming| while not disproven| is also without a meaningful scientific basis. 4016,1993,2,3,AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS OF AND RESPONSES TO CLIMATE-CHANGE IN THE MISSOURI-IOWA-NEBRASKA-KANSAS (MINK) REGION,The climate of the 1930s was used as an analog of the climate that might occur in Missouri| Iowa| Nebraska and Kansas (the MINK region) as a consequence of global warming. The analog climate was imposed on the agriculture of the region under technological and economic conditions prevailing in 1984/87 and again under a scenario of conditions that might prevail in 2030. The EPIC model of Williams et al. (1984)| modified to allow consideration of the yield enhancing effects of CO2 enrichment| was used to evaluate the impacts of the analog climate on the productivity and water use of some 50 representative farm enterprises. Before farm level adjustments and adaptations to the changed climate| and absent CO2 enrichment (from 350 to 450 ppm)| production of corn| sorghum and soybeans was depressed by the analog climate in about the same percent under both current and 2030 conditions. Production of dryland wheat was unaffected. Irrigated wheat production actually increased. Farm level adjustments using low-cost currently available technologies| combined with CO2 enrichment| eliminated about 80% of the negative impact of the analog climate on 1984/87 baseline crop production. The same farm level adjustments| plus new technologies developed in response to the analog climate| when combined with CO2 enrichment| converted the negative impact on 2030 crop production to a small increase. The analog climate would have little direct effect on animal production in MINK. The effect| if any| would be by way of the impact on production of feed-grains and soybeans. Since this impact would be small after on-farm adjustments and CO2 enrichment| animal production in MINK would be little affected by the analog climate. 3983,1993,4,4,AGRICULTURE AND GLOBAL WARMING,Global warming poses a distinct threat to agricultural systems worldwide and to attempts to place farming on more sustainable foundations. The magnitude and severity of that threat is systematically understated by the use of inappropriate models of risk and economic analysis that underestimate potential costs of global warming. The author proposes that the logic underlying Pascal's wager about the existence of God| a variant of minimax strategies in game theory| may be an instructive alternative. 2688,1993,2,2,AGRICULTURE IN A GREENHOUSE WORLD,While agriculture in some temperate regions may benefit from global climate change| tropical and subtropical regions may suffer. Even where potential production will improve| the required adjustments may disrupt ecosystems and land-use patterns. Agricultural zones will shift toward high latitudes| while heat stress and increased droughts will reduce productivity in lower latitudes. On the positive side| higher CO2 may enhance photosynthesis and water-use efficiency. Future hazards include sea-level rise| insect infestation| and greater evaporation losses. Some agricultural activities augment the greenhouse effect by releasing CO2| CH4| and N2O. Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is a prerequisite to developing societal responses.
2702,1993,2,3,AGRICULTURE| FOOD AND THE ENVIRONMENT,The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development alerted the world to the hazards presumptive if the planet's natural resources of land| water| air| energy and biological organisms are not protected and utilised more conservatively. UNCED declared two urgent research priorities: global climate change and genetic diversity. Excessive use of fossil fuels and a resultant atmospheric pollution forebodes higher temperatures at the earth's surface. The consequences for agriculture are unpredictable. Alternative sources of energy are described: electric motors with high-capacity batteries and high energy fly-wheels; solar-thermal and photovoltaic systems of power generation. Global population will rise to at least 8 billion (1 billion = 10(9)) by 2025| a rate of growth demanding an annual increase of 3% in agricultural production. The principles of sustainable production in relation to land and water management| genetic diversity among crop species| and food science and technology are discussed. Among the many thousand crop genotypes in the international germ plasm banks| more is known about agronomic characters than about functional properties relevant to food processing. Transgenic modifications broaden the spectrum of pest resistance in crops| but too little is known of the nutritional implications. Biotechnological advances| demands for non-polluting waste disposal| consumer concerns for food safety| the need to provide food security for a global population changing in age and income distribution| offer exciting challenges to all food scientists and technologists.
2673,1993,2,4,AIR-POLLUTION-MEDIATED CHANGES IN ALPINE ECOSYSTEMS AND ECOTONES,Soil biological parameters (e.g.| Collembola)| soil types| soil chemical parameters (pH| humus substances)| and plant communities were studied in different ecosystems and ecotones in alpine| subalpine| and spruce forest zones in the Tatra National Park| Slovak Republic. The preliminary| selected data| based on a long-term research program| showed a high sensitivity of some alpine ecotones and ecosystems to long-distance transported acid deposits. The changes in different ecosystem parameters since 1977 were more extensive in alpine grasslands on limestone than on granite. The greatest soil pH decrease was in the plant communities Festucetum versicoloris (- 1.5 pH)| Geranio-Alchemilletum crinitae (- 1.32 pH)| and Saxifragetum perdurantis (- 1.25 pH)| which are restricted to places with snow accumulation and water runoff gullies. In these ecosystems the greatest changes occurred in the leaching of humus substances. Some formerly less abundant and rare soil animals restricted to acid bedrock became dominant in some ecosystems on limestone as well as on granite; other formerly dominant species disappeared from the entire study area (e.g.| Folsomia alpina). The aerial extent of some ecosystems changed substantially since 1977| and their surrounding ecotones moved into the space formerly occupied by one of the adjacent ecosystems. These changes are detectable by remote-sensing methods. In Central European mountains| strongly affected by global and regional industrial air pollution (e.g.| Krusne Hory| Krkonose| Beskydy)| spruce forests started to die back from higher to lower mountain elevations. The effects of air pollution on alpine and subalpine vegetation were not studied there. Strong alterations in alpine ecosystems and ecotones were detected by the author during long-term studies in the High Tatra Mountains| and I suggest that subalpine and mountain forest belts will be affected here in the near future as they were in the more polluted Central European mountains. The ecosystems and ecotones in higher alpine zones are likely to be affected earlier than the ecosystems at lower altitudes. Detection of ecosystem alteration in the alpine zone may be used for prediction of acidification processes and global change in ecosystems at lower altitudes. The consequences of global climate change are predictable by monitoring changes in the extent of some ecosystems located in discrete mountain geomorphological units (e.g.| karstic sinkholes| water runoff gullies| wind shadows| ridges exposed to wind| etc.) and ecotones among them because of their dependence on duration of snow cover| water supply| wind and frost exposure| and other abiotic and biotic factors.
4015,1993,2,4,AN ANALYSIS OF MICROCLIMATIC VARIATION IN A SUBURBAN ENVIRONMENT,An observational and modeling study of the microclimate of a suburban area| as related to the physical and biological nature of the site| is presented. The measurements and calculations are made in comparison with a nearby open agricultural location or ''control site''. The measurement program was conducted during the summer of 1981 in Davis| CA| and consisted of paired observations in which simultaneous measurements were made at a control site| located in a nearby rural area and one suburban site at a time. Results indicate that this methodology was generally successful. The various suburban sites were as often cooler than the rural site as they were warmer. In one case | a suburban site was found to be substantially cooler| averaging 7.38-degrees-C over a 5 day period| than the rural site. This special case was observed to be associated with unusually dry environmental air resulting in large evaporative cooling in the plant canopy. Comparison between the suburban temperature deficit and the physical nature of the various sites reveals that canopy height explained most of the variance of this data set. Two generally important mechanisms are hypothesized to be operating in this system: the effect of canopy size on turbulent mixing and on site shading| especially of paved areas. A simple energy balance model was applied to study the processes that control the daytime suburban temperature deficit. In particular| it is found that suburban sites can be as cool as observed when the following conditions are obtained: low-canopy humidity| large canopy size| low wind speed and high radiation load. The model simulated the overall average suburban temperature deficit of all sites for physically reasonable choices of model parameters. It is pointed out that the fact that suburban areas may be cooler than surrounding rural areas may have significance to the problem of assessing the role of the urban heat island in relation to possible global warming. 2660,1993,4,2,AN EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE PHYTOPLANKTON-DIMETHYLSULFIDE-CLOUD-CLIMATE FEEDBACK CYCLE,The possible influence of the marine biogeochemical sulfur cycle on the global climate has been a topic of much recent research. Based on the hypothesis that phytoplankton could affect cloud albedo by producing dimethylsulfide| which is a precursor to aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei| and that cloud albedo could in turn affect the productivity of the phytoplankton| the presence of such a feedback cycle would have significant implications for models of global climate change. By considering available data on the relationships between individual components of the proposed feedback| an empirical model is developed of the cycle as a whole| allowing an assessment to be made of the degree to which the cycle could thermostatically regulate the climate. It is estimated that the feedback strength is about 20% (10% - 50%) of that which would be necessary to completely counteract a perturbation to the global climate| such as is anticipated due to accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
3985,1993,3,3,AN OVERVIEW OF LARGE-SCALE CO2 DISPOSAL OPTIONS,The IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme is conducting an initial 3-year study aimed at potential CO2 mitigation techniques as a response to the issue of global warming. The Programme is currently examining| on a common basis| the options available for capturing and disposing of the CO2 produced from a range of fossil fuel fired power generation plant types| each with an output of 500MW(e). The options available for disposing of large quantities of CO2 are reviewed and compared on the basis of current knowledge| and the global potential of the options estimated. Photosynthetic processes| such as forestry and biomass production| which remove CO2 from the atmosphere are also included. The long term fate of the CO2| in terms of its eventual re-entry into the atmosphere| is discussed and the disposal options chosen for further study| under the IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme| are identified. 4082,1993,2,4,ANOMALOUS SEASONAL CYCLES OF DECAPOD CRUSTACEAN LARVAE IN THE NORTH-SEA PLANKTON IN AN ABNORMALLY WARM YEAR,In 1989 the seasonal cycles of most common decapod larvae in Continuous Plankton Recorder samples taken in the North Sea were significantly different from those described for 1947-1951 and for 1981-1983. In all cases where the differences were significant the larvae occurred earlier in 1989 than in previous years. Zoeae of Atelecyclus rotundatus were found in the Southern Bight in the spring. The winter of 1988-1989 was exceptionally mild with air temperatures over Great Britain 2-3-degrees-C above average and positive temperature anomalies persisted through the year. The sea surface temperatures in the North Sea were also mainly higher than usual. The events were treated as a ''natural experiment'' to examine effects of the high temperatures on seasonal cycles of decapod larval production and the implications of these effects for marine communities with reference to predicted global warming. The relationships between timing of occurrence of the larvae in the plankton and parameters of sea temperatures were generally consistent with previous results from studies of geographical variations| and possible causal mechanisms are discussed in the light of the 1989 data. 2665,1993,3,3,AQUATIC BIOMASS AND CARBON-DIOXIDE TRAPPING,The technology for growing microalgae as a renewable biomass source can be applied to the production of a diesel fuel substitute (biodiesel). Microalgae are of interest because of their high growth rates and tolerance to varying environmental conditions| and because the oils (lipids) they produce can be extracted and converted to substitute petroleum fuels. Projected global climate change provides a second important rationale for this approach. Climate change has been linked to the accumulation of excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The burning of fossil fuels in power plants is the primary contributor to excess carbon dioxide. Inasmuch as the primary nutrient for microalgal growth is carbon dioxide| operation of microalgal biomass farms has emerged as a promising candidate in the search for alternative approaches to ameliorate global climate change. The production of diesel fuel by microalgae requires very large quantities of carbon dioxide as a nutrient. In areas where microalgae fuel farms operate in tandem with fossil fuel plants to scrub carbon dioxide from flue gases| the release of carbon dioxide could be significantly reduced. If the microalgae are used to produce fuel| a mass culture facility reduces by approximately 50% the carbon dioxide emissions from the power plant per million Btu delivered. For example| although coal is ordinarily considered to be the most polluting fossil fuel on the basis of carbon dioxide emitted per amount of energy produced| the incorporation of microalgal ponds with a coal-fired plant would make this fossil fuel less polluting than existing oil- and natural-gas-fired plants. Similar advantages can be achieved for oil- and gas-fired plants. If commodity chemicals are produced from algae instead of fuels| the net carbon dioxide reduction is significantly greater. Commodity chemicals can be used to produce goods with long-term uses such as building materials. Such uses would result in the sequestering of carbon dioxide for long periods. Of the photosynthetic organisms| microalgae are the most productive carbon dioxide users and can fix greater amounts of carbon dioxide per land area than higher plants. Also| maximum productivities of higher plants and trees are restricted to areas with prime soil| water| and climate (primarily the tropics). Plant leaves exist in an aerial environment and are subject to large evaporative moisture losses| which directly inhibit the process of photosynthesis (carbon dioxide uptake). Microalgae in mass culture are not subject to such photosynthetic inhibition because the water content of the culture can be controlled by proper engineering| and saline water can be used if necessary. This difference is the basis for the several-fold higher carbon dioxide absorption capacity of microalgae compared to plants. Initial application of this technology is envisioned for the Desert Southwest of the United States because this area provides high solar radiation and offers flat land that has few competing uses (hence low land costs). Also| there are large saline aquifers with few| competing uses in the region. These could provide a suitable| low-cost culture| medium for the growth of many species of microalgae.
2695,1993,3,3,AQUATIC BIOMASS RESOURCES AND CARBON-DIOXIDE TRAPPING,Intensively managed microalgal production facilities are capable of fixing several-fold more carbon dioxide per unit area than trees or crops. Although CO2 is still released when fuels derived from algal biomass are burned| integration of microalgal farms for flue gas capture approximately doubles the amount of energy produced per unit of CO2 released. Materials derived from microalgal biomass also can be used for other long-term uses| serving to sequester CO2. Flue gas has the potential to provide sufficient quantities of CO2 for such large-scale microalgae farms. Viewing microalgae farms as a means to reduce the effects of a greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide| CO2) changes the view of the economics of the process. Instead of requiring that microalgae-derived fuel be cost competitive with fossil fuels| the process economics must be compared with those of other technologies proposed to deal with the problem of CO2 pollution. However| development of alternative| environmentally safer energy production technologies will benefit society whether or not global climate change actually occurs. Microalgal biomass production has great potential to contribute to world energy supplies| and to control CO2 emissions as the demand for energy increases. This technology makes productive use of arid and semi-arid lands and highly saline water| resources that are not suitable for agriculture and other biomass technologies.
4079,1993,2,4,ARTHROPODS AS DISEASE VECTORS IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT,Arthropod vectors need to acquire energy| moisture| hosts and shelter from their environment. Changing human populations and industrialization affect almost every aspect of the environment. In particular| the prospects of climatic warming| urbanization and vegetation changes have the potential to materially affect global patterns of vector-borne diseases. Global warming will enable the expansion of the geographical distributions of vectors. The population dynamics of vectors will change in response to extended seasons suitable for development followed by less severe winters. The incidence of epidemics is likely to change in response to an expected disproportionate increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events. The impact of such changes on each of the major vector-borne diseases is reviewed and projections are made on the likely global areas at risk from spread of disease vectors. Research needs are identified and response strategies are suggested in the context of the ever-increasing impact of human populations and industrial activity on the environment. 2670,1993,3,3,ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MARINE CO2 DISPOSAL,We consider the relative effectiveness of systems for collection and marine disposal Of CO2 from fossil fuel fired power plants using comparisons of the trend with time Of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere from systems with and without marine disposal. The retention time for CO2 increases rapidly with depth of disposal| from a few years in the mixed layer up to several centuries as the depth increases beyond 1000 m| suggesting that deep oceans should be considered as potential storage sites for CO2. However| CO2 collection and disposal consumes energy and produces extra CO2. We show that some of this extra this CO2 reaches the atmosphere| so that atmospheric concentrations from systems with marine disposal ultimately exceed those from systems without controls. In some circumstances they do so rapidly| making marine disposal less favorable than direct atmospheric release. Global Warming Potential can be used to compare systems. This highlights the difficult issues involved in determining what time scales are important in considering options to reduce concerns about global warming.
3974,1993,4,3,ASSESSMENT OF THE ATMOSPHERIC HAZARDS AND RISKS OF NEW CHEMICALS - PROCEDURES TO ESTIMATE HAZARD POTENTIALS,Before introduction new chemical substances are evaluated on their potential hazards and risks. Concerning the assessment of atmospheric hazards and risks the direct effects caused by exposure to the new chemicals and indirect effect caused by deposition to soil and surface water are accounted for in assessment systems. However| the potential impact of new chemicals on atmospheric processes is generally not included. In this paper procedures to estimate ''hazard potentials'' to quantify the potential risk of a new substance in atmosphere-related environmental problems are proposed and discussed. In particular| hazard potentials for the following topics are defined: global warming; ozone depletion; photochemical smog formation; acidification and eutrophication. Based on these ''hazard potentials'' atmospheric hazards and risks can be assessed. 4024,1993,3,3,AUTOMOTIVE EMISSIONS IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES - RELATIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL WARMING| ACIDIFICATION AND URBAN AIR-QUALITY,This paper attempts to assess the magnitude and scope of automotive pollutant emissions in developing countries and their role in global warming| regional scale air pollution and urban air quality. Greenhouse-gas emissions (CO2 and CFCs) from motor vehicles in developing countries contribute less than 3% to the global greenhouse effect| compared to a 9 to 12% contribution from motor vehicles in OECD countries and Eastern Europe. The share of OECD countries in conventional pollutant emissions from motor vehicles exceeds the combined contribution of all developing countries by a factor of three to five. Acid deposition from motor vehicle emissions does not currently appear to be a problem in developing countries. The incidence of regional scale ozone is not known but could be potentially significant downstream from large urban centers. There is a need for more systematic monitoring and evaluation of acid deposition and regional ozone concentrations in developing countries. Urban air quality is the prime casualty of motorization in developing countries. The air pollution problem will intensify in developing countries with increasing urbanization and the rapid pace of motorization. Urban concentrations of carbon monoxide| airborne lead| particulate matter and sulfur oxides in many developing countries already exceed the levels in industrialized countries. Motor vehicles emit 30% to 85% of all man-made air pollutants in the large urban areas in developing countries| depending on the level of motorization. Without effective measures to control pollutant emissions| some 300 to 500 million city dwellers in developing countries will become exposed to unhealthy and dangerous levels of air pollution from motor vehicles by the year 2000. 4005,1993,2,4,BASIC TENDENCIES IN CHANGES OF THE EARTHS VEGETATION IN RELATION TO GLOBAL WARMING OF THE CLIMATE,An analysis is presented of current approaches to prediction of possible changes of vegetation in relation to existing tendencies in global warning of the climate. Preference is accorded to the structural-functional approach in plant ecology based on study of the dissemination of plants with different types of photosynthesis (C3| C4| and CAM) and variants (biochemical and structural) of the C4 syndrome in relation to climatic factors. The possibility of realization of such an approach is demonstrated on the example of the latitude| altitude| and edaphic distribution of species of the families Poaceae and Chenopodiaceae. 4049,1993,4,5,BENIGN GREENHOUSE,Several lines of evidence are emerging that suggest that the ''popular vision'' of global warming-major agricultural damage| disastrous sea-level rise| and ecological disequilibrium-is flawed. The popular vision is driven primarily by the prospect of enhanced daytime warming| particularly in summer What has been observed is a warming that is beneath the projections that support the popular vision| and a warming that has occurred virtually all during the night in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere there is also evidence of disproportionate night warming. Several sources of data indicate that this night warming has been caused by an increase in cloudiness that could be a consequence of the greenhouse enhancement itself. The results of the night warming-longer growing seasons| little change in moisture stress| and a possible increase in ice volume-are opposite to the popular vision of climatic change.
4046,1993,5,4,BIPOLAR MOLLUSKS AND THEIR EVOLUTIONARY IMPLICATIONS,The phenomenon of bipolarity| one of the major disjunct distribution patterns on the face of the earth| has been investigated repeatedly since the mid-nineteenth century. Running through the many hypotheses that have been put forward to account for its occurrence| it is possible to detect two persistent themes: it is usually interpreted within a dispersal framework| and it is generally believed to be of comparatively recent origin. To many authors| the phenomenon is intimately linked to the Plio-Pleistocene glaciations. Recent palaeontological investigations have established that bipolarity can now be traced back to at least the Early Jurassic period (i.e. 200 m.y.a.). Here it is well marked in the Pliensbachian stage by a variety of pectinacean bivalve taxa. Further bivalves indicate probable Middle Jurassic examples| but the phenomenon is more clearly seen in the Late Jurassic| especially in the Tithonian stage. At this time| inoceramid| buchiid and oxytomid bivalve occurrences at northern hemisphere localities such as arctic Canada| N.W. Europe| Siberia| N.E. USSR and Japan can be matched with those in southern South America| Antarctica and Australasia. A striking Early Cretaceous (Aptian-Albian) bipolar pattern for the oxytomid Aucellina may be complemented by several infaunal bivalves| brachiopods and at least one gastropod. There is strong circumstantial evidence to suggest that bipolar molluscs continued to develop through the Cenozoic era. Such is the level of generic and subfamilial differentiation within certain living forms as to suggest that they must be the product of a considerable evolutionary history. It is likely that present-day distribution patterns of prosobranch gastropod groups such as the whelks (Buccinidae)| together with certain fissurellids| littorinids| naticids and turrids| can be related to a late Paleogene-early Neogene phase of bipolarity. Many amphitropical taxa| in both the marine and terrestrial realms| have probable late Neogene-Pleistocene origins. It is possible to set the Jurassic and Cretaceous examples of bipolarity within a largely vicariant framework based upon the disintegration of the Pangean supercontinent. In this way the widespread ranges of putative Triassic ancestors were disrupted by tectonic processes in low latitude regions| although it should be emphasized that major climatic and oceanographic changes were almost certainly involved too. Similarly| it is possible to view late Paleogene-early Neogene bipolarity as a vicariant event| but this time with climatic change identified as the single most important agent. Widespread or cosmopolitan distributions are held to have formed during global cool phases (such as the late Eocene-early Miocene) only to be disrupted by global warming (such as in the late early Miocene). It is even possible to view Plio-Pleistocene patterns as| at least in part| the products of vicariant events caused by rapid temperature and sea level shifts. Clearly| there is an urgent need here for more critical taxonomic data to test these various hypotheses. Phylogenetic studies of groups such as the Mesozoic bivalve superfamily Monotoidea and the Cenozoic Buccinidae| in particular| should constitute future rigorous tests. In so doing| they should also provide much useful information on the relative roles of dispersal and vicariance in promoting global disjunction in marine faunas. Repeated formation of bipolar patterns through geological time may have had important implications for modes of speciation and phenomena such as the origin of taxonomic diversity gradients. 4068,1993,3,3,CAN FUEL-BASED ENERGY-PRODUCTION MEET THE CHALLENGE OF FIGHTING GLOBAL WARMING - A CHANCE FOR BIOMASS AND COGENERATION,In long-term energy strategies| one of the most crucial challenges will be fighting global warming. This requires considerable structural changes in energy production. There is clear evidence that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide causes the 'greenhouse effect| while opinions differ about its seriousness. However| it is the first real threat caused by mankind to his own life expectancy. Finland - as other European countries - has engaged to freeze and later also to reduce its CO2 emissions. Can energy production be based essentially on fossil fuels or are nuclear power and renewable energy sources the only energy alternatives in the future ? 4042,1993,4,3,CARBON-DIOXIDE AND CLIMATE - THE IMPACT OF CLOUD PARAMETERIZATION,The importance of the representation of cloud in a general circulation model is investigated by utilizing four different parameterization schemes for layer cloud in a low-resolution version of the general CirCulation model at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. The performance of each version of the model in terms of cloud and radiation is assessed in relation to satellite data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). Schemes that include a prognostic cloud water variable show some improvement on those with relative humidity-dependent cloud| but all still show marked differences from the ERBE data. The sensitivity of each of the versions of the model to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is investigated. Midlevel and lower-level clouds decrease when cloud is dependent on relative humidity| and this constitutes a strong positive feedback. When interactive cloud water is included| however| this effect is almost entirely compensated for by a negative feedback from the change of phase of cloud water from ice to water. Additional negative feedbacks are found when interactive radiative properties of cloud are included and these lead to an overall negative cloud feedback. The global warming produced with the four models then ranges from 5.4-degrees with a relative humidity scheme to 1.9-degrees-C with interactive cloud water and radiative properties. Improving the treatment of ice cloud based on observations increases the model's sensitivity slightly to 2.1-degrees-C. Using an energy balance model| it is estimated that the climate sensitivity using the relative humidity scheme along with the negative feedback from cloud radiative properties would be 2.8-degrees-C. Thus| 2.8-degrees-2.1-degrees-C appears to be a better estimate of the range of equilibrium response to a doubling of CO2. 4080,1993,3,3,CHEMICAL POLLUTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT - PAST| PRESENT AND FUTURE,In an era of 'global environmental change' people are concerned about emissions of CO2| CH4| N2O and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) to the atmosphere because of their direct impact on global warming and their stratospheric ozone-depleting effects. Unprecedented efforts have been made to reduce the global emissions of CFCs. Major industries| which are competing within the modern global economy| have recognized the importance of maintaining a 'green' perspective. Future operations will be designed to reduce the direct emissions of chemical by-products to air| water and soil| and to recycle and to reuse critical solvents such as water. 'Star Wars' technologies for the rapid| economical and effective elimination of industrial and domestic wastes will be developed and employed on a large scale. Advanced technologies for the control and monitoring of chemical pollutants on regional and global scales will be developed and implemented. Satellite-based instruments will be able to detect| to quantify| and to monitor a wide range of chemical pollutants. Our understanding of the fate and consequences of chemicals in the environment will increase dramatically such that we shall be able to predict the environmental| ecological and biochemical consequences of novel synthetic molecules with much greater precision. 4073,1993,2,3,CLIMATE EFFECTS OF ATMOSPHERIC METHANE,We discuss the role of the concentration increase of atmospheric CH4 (currently almost-equal-to 0.8% yr-1) in climate change| including effects through chemical feedbacks| notably through formation of 03 and stratospheric H2O| and reduction of OH levels| which increases the lifetime of CH4 . We present results of simulations with a coupled 1-D radiative-convective model| which includes chemical and radiative processes in the troposphere and stratosphere| and which treats both hemispheres separately. Our results deviate appreciably from those reported in earlier studies- the reason for this is discussed in detail The current climate forcing by CH4 (excluding indirect chemical effects) is 26 times that Of CO2 (calculated on a mole CO2/Mole CH4 basis). A recently introduced quantity to express the time integrated effect of CH4 relative to that of CO2 over a given time interval is the global warming potential (GWP). We assess that the GWP of CH4| including chemical feedbacks| over a 10 year integration period is 26.9 (Mole CO2/mole CH4)| decreasing to 7.5 for a time horizon of 100 years. Considering that the use of fossil fuels is associated with emissions of both CO2 and CH4| we evaluated the climatic consequences of switching from coal or oil to natural gas. We conclude that| if the fractional gas leakage from production and distribution of natural gas is below 4.3 - 5.7%| a switch from coal to natural gas as energy source would reduce the rate of climate warming. The use of gas would be preferable over the use of oil (from a climate point of view)| if the fractional gas leakage is less than 2.4 - 2.9%. The ranges express uncertainties in CH4 releases from coal and oil production. 3997,1993,5,4,CLIMATE INSTABILITY DURING THE LAST INTERGLACIAL PERIOD RECORDED IN THE GRIP ICE CORE,Isotope and chemical analyses of the GRIP ice core from Summit| central Greenland| reveal that climate in Greenland during the last interglacial period was characterized by a series of severe cold periods| which began extremely rapidly and lasted from decades to centuries. As the last interglacial seems to have been slightly warmer than the present one| its unstable climate raises questions about the effects of future global warming. 3948,1993,2,4,CLIMATE-CHANGE AND THE SHORT-TERM IMPACT OF FERAL HOUSE MICE AT THE SUB-ANTARCTIC PRINCE-EDWARD-ISLANDS,At the Prince Edward Islands| temperatures have increased by approximately 1 degrees C over the past 40 years| accompanied by a decline in precipitation. This ha's led to a reduction in the peat moisture content of mires and higher growing season ''warmth''. The temperature- and moisture-sensitive sedge| Uncinia compacta R. Pr. (Cyperaceae)| has consequently increased its aerial cover on Prince Edward Island| but harvesting of seeds by feral house mice (up to 100% removed) has prevented this from happening on Marion Island. Such extensive use of resources suggests that prey switching may be taking place at Marion Island. Seat analyses revealed that mice are not only eating ectemnorhinine weevils to a greater extent than found in previous studies of populations at Marion Island| but that they also prefer larger weevils (+/- 6 mm). A decrease in body size of preferred weevil prey species [Bothrometopus randi Jeannel and Ectemnorhinus similis C.O. Waterhouse (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)] has taken place on Marion Island (1986-1992)| but not on Prince Edward Island. This appears to be a result of increased predation on weevils. In addition| adults of the prey species| E. similis are relatively more abundant on Prince Edward Island than adults of the smaller congener E. marioni Jeannel| and could not be found on Marion Island in the late austral summer of 1991. These results not only provide support for previous hypotheses of the effect of global warming on mouse-plant-invertebrate interactions on the Prince Edward Islands| but also provide limited evidence for the first recorded case of predator-mediated speciation. They also show that the interaction of human-induced changes operating at different scales may have profound consequences for local systems. 2671,1993,2,3,CLIMATE-CHANGE AND WATER-RESOURCE AVAILABILITY - AN IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR BOMBAY AND MADRAS| INDIA,Global climate change associated with rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may alter regional temperature and precipitation patterns. Such changes could threaten the availability of water resources for rapidly growing Third World cities| many of which are already experiencing severe water supply deficiencies. This paper investigates the potential impacts of climate change on water resource availability for two Indian cities| Bombay and Madras. The paper begins by discussing future trends for population growth and water demand in each city. Next| using climate change scenarios based on three general circulation models (GCMs)| the paper assesses how climate change may affect water availability in the two urban regions. The assessment is conducted through the use of a monthly dryness index measuring potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. For each region| the dryness index under ''normal'' climatic conditions is compared with indexes created using GCM scenarios. The results of this assessment indicate that| unless large increases in regional precipitation accompany climate warming| higher rates of evapotranspiration will mean reduced water availability for both cities. The paper concludes by discussing some implications for water management in Third World cities.
3984,1993,4,2,CO2 AND CLIMATIC-CHANGE - AN OVERVIEW OF THE SCIENCE,International policy measures to deal with the enhanced greenhouse effect am being debated on a scientific basis which is still uncertain. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced a major scientific assessment of climatic change. They concluded that| despite uncertainties| the model simulations of a warming due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases am broadly consistent with observations of global temperature changes. Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas from human activities. Increases in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere contribute over half of the enhanced greenhouse effect| the rest being mainly due to increases in halocarbons and methane. The total effect of greenhouse gas emissions depends on their lifetimes in the atmosphere. The global warming potential of other greenhouse gases is expressed relative to that of CO2. However| the lifetime Of CO2 in the atmosphere is complicated by uptake into the many carbon storage sinks of the global carbon cycle. Knowledge of the global carbon cycle is incomplete| the sources exceeding the sum of known sinks. Reductions in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere could be achieved by reducing the emissions or enlarging the sinks. What is achieved in future will depend to a large extent on a mom detailed understanding of carbon storage mechanisms. 4052,1993,3,3,CO2 EMISSIONS CONTROL - COMPARING POLICY INSTRUMENTS,We use a global model to compare the economic performance of three policy instruments for controlling CO2 emissions -period specific emission limits (limit policy)| period specific taxes (tax policy)| and a cumulative emissions limit (cumulative limit policy). With known costs and benefits of control| tax and limit policies are equivalent| and either is better than a cumulative limit policy. With uncertain benefits of emission reduction| tax and limit policies are equivalent. However| with uncertain costs of emission reduction| a tax policy may be better. A cumulative limit policy may occasionally perform well under uncertainty| but this is not generally the case. 4077,1993,3,3,COMBATING GLOBAL WARMING - REDUCING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM COAL-FIRED POWER-PLANT,The threat of global warming is sufficient to warrant 'least regrets' measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases| in particular through increased efficiency in energy production and use. British Coal has set up a programme to contribute to the international responses to the threat. It is concentrating on investigating options for removing carbon dioxide from fossil-fuelled power plants in case expensive fallback options become necessary. Screening of the options commenced with flowsheeting studies which estimated the thermal efficiency of a number of process schemes. These screening studies concluded that carbon dioxide (CO2) control could be retrofitted to existing coal-fired power stations| but that the new generation of gasification-based systems is more promising. CO2 separation could be more easily integrated into advanced power plants as they operate at high pressure| resulting in increased CO2 partial pressure which reduces the energy penalty associated with the separation. The CO2 would need to be exported as a liquid stream for storage in exhausted oil or gas fields Costs of such power plants and CO2 disposal options have been developed. These studies suggest that| using proven technology| the cost of electricity would rise by about 42 per cent. If novel gas separation systems based on membranes can be developed| the increase in electricity cost could be limited to around 34 per cent. This paper discusses the options and presents the results of costing studies| 3971,1993,3,4,COMPARISON OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRICITY FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES,There is a variety of techniques for comparing the environmental impacts of electricity from different sources. Only monetary valuation of the impacts offers the prospect of providing comparison on a single baseline. Unfortunately| practical and methodological problems generally prevent accurate valuation. For fossil fuel electricity generation the major environmental externalities result from acid deposition| tropospheric ozone and global warming. For nuclear power the main issues are major reactor accidents and long-term waste disposal. Some broad estimates of environmental externalities (in p/kWh) are given from each| based on available scientific evidence and valuation studies. The uncertainties and methodological problems associated with valuation prevent any reliable statement about the relative magnitudes of externalities resulting from fossil and nuclear generating options. In both cases| some of the impacts are incompatible with stricter interpretations of sustainability. The important environmental impacts of most renewable electricity generating options concern human amenity. With some exceptions| where areas of more than local significance for ecology or recreation are concerned| the monetary values of the impacts will be small. For most electricity conservation technologies| the externalities are negligible. Energy conservation and renewable electricity supply will therefore form key components of a sustainable energy system. 4039,1993,2,2,DEGREES OF CERTAINTY,Debate in the media over global warming often mixes what is well known with what is speculative| thereby leading to an artificially confusing impression that scientists share no consensus of the probable magnitude| timing| and potential seriousness of the environmental and societal consequences of the documented and well-understood buildup of various greenhouse-enhancing gases in the atmosphere. Indeed| widespread concern exists over the plausibility of temperature increases of 1 to 5-degrees-C in the 21 st century| and that the mid to upper part of that range could imply dramatic restructuring of ecosystems or communities. I discuss the difficulty in interpreting the 0.5 +/- 0.2-degrees-C 20th century warming trend as ''proof'' of greenhouse-gas-induced global warming in light of possible climatic-change causal factors such as industrial aerosols| natural fluctuations| or changes in solar output. How to act is controversial| and economic model results showing potential abatement costs of carbon taxes are discussed 4032,1993,2,4,DIFFERENTIAL GROWTH-RESPONSES OF CASSIOPE-TETRAGONA| AN ARCTIC DWARF-SHRUB| TO ENVIRONMENTAL PERTURBATIONS AMONG 3 CONTRASTING HIGH SITES AND SUB-ARCTIC SITES,Three populations of Cassiope tetragona (Ericaceae) were subjected to in situ environmental perturbations simulating predictions of global warming. The populations were selected to represent different parts of the range of the species| one growing in a high arctic coastal heath at Ny-Alesund (Svalbard| northern part of the species' range)| one at a subarctic fellfield at 1150 m a.s.l. at Abisko| Swedish Lapland| and one in a subarctic tree-line heath at 450 m a.s.l. at Abisko| southern part of the species' range. The manipulations included nutrient addition| shading and two levels of temperature enhancement using passive greenhouses. The micrometeorological effects of the shading treatment was similar to that of a mountain birch canopy and the temperature enhancement treatments had the desired effect to increase the average air temperature by 2-4-degrees-C. Greenhouses which had a gap between the soil and the greenhouse plastic were particularly successful in creating the desired climatic perturbation without causing extreme maximum temperatures or other unwanted side-effects. The environmental manipulations caused strikingly different responses in the vegetative growth pattern of main shoots of C. tetragona among the three populations: at the subarctic tree-line heath| nutrient addition caused a substantial increase in growth| whereas it was the temperature enhancement treatments that caused increases| although smaller| at the subarctic fellfield and the high arctic heath sites. At the high arctic site| we also found growth reduced in response to shading| but at the subarctic sites| and particularly at the tree-line heath site| shading caused a marked etiolation of the shoots. Hence| different factors seem to produce very different responses in the vegetative growth of C. tetragona in different parts of its geographical range. We conclude that competition for nutrients and light are the main limiting factors for the growth of Cassiope tetragona near the lower distributional limit (LODIL) of the species| but that temperature is the main limiting factor in the northern parts of its range| and at high altitudes in the southern parts of its range. We also suggest that the direct effect of predicted future climatic warming on the growth of Cassiope tetragona will increase towards the north| whereas a possible indirect effect of increasing nutrient availability following a temperature increase will be the main effect in the southern and lower parts of its range. These responses could| however| be modified by shading from other species responding to environmental change by increased growth. 3957,1993,4,2,DOES FOSSIL-FUEL COMBUSTION LEAD TO GLOBAL WARMING,Tropospheric sulfate aerosols produced by atmospheric oxidation of SO2 emitted from fossil fuel combustion scatter solar radiation and enhance the reflectivity of clouds. Both effects decrease the absorption of solar radiation by the earth-atmosphere system. This cooling influence tends to offset the warming influence resulting from increased absorption of terrestrial infrared radiation by increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The sulfate forcing is estimated to be offsetting 70% of the forcing by CO2 derived from fossil fuel combustion| although the uncertainty of this estimate is quite large-range 28 to 140%| the latter figure indicating that the present combined forcing is net cooling. Because of the vastly different atmospheric residence times of sulfate aerosol (about a week) and CO2 (about 100 years)| the cooling influence of sulfate aerosol is exerted immediately| whereas most of the warming influence of CO2 is exerted over more than 100 years. Consequently the total forcing integrated over the entire time the materials reside in the atmosphere is net warming| with the total CO2 forcing estimated to exceed the sulfate forcing by a factor of 4 (uncertainty range 2 to more than 10). The present situation in which the forcing by sulfate is comparable to that; by CO2 is shown to be a consequence of the steeply increasing rates of emissions over the industrial era. 4061,1993,4,4,DOES RECENT GLOBAL WARMING SUGGEST AN ENHANCED GREENHOUSE-EFFECT,Considerable controversy has been generated by the observation that the Earth's climate has warmed over the last century. Public policy decisions hinge on the question of whether this trend is natural climate variability or the result of the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. The strength of the enhanced greenhouse effect depends| in large part| on the uncertain value of climate sensitivity. In this paper climate sensitivity is estimated from the global temperature record by assuming models for greenhouse forcing| climate response to forcing| and climate variability. We find optimal estimates of climate sensitivity are remarkably insensitive to assumptions| at least for forcing excluding the effect of aerosols| and these values are considerably less than most predictions arising from General Circulation Models (GCM's). It is| however| the statistical significance of these estimates that is sensitive to assumptions about climate variability. Assuming climate variability with a time scale of a decade or less| climate sensitivity is estimated to be significantly greater than zero| but also significantly lower than that predicted by GCM's. Climate variability with a century time scale is consistent with both the recent temperature record and the pre-instrumental record for the last millenium; if this type of variability is assumed| the estimate of climate sensitivity has a confidence band wide enough to encompass both zero and typical values obtained by GCM's. With century time-scale variability it will be several decades before confident estimates can be made. 2679,1993,2,3,DOWNSCALING OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE ESTIMATES TO REGIONAL SCALES - AN APPLICATION TO IBERIAN RAINFALL IN WINTERTIME,A statistical strategy to deduct regional-scale features from climate general circulation model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to interrelate the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of large-scale atmospheric flow using the canonical correlation technique. The large-scale North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) is related to the regional| variable| winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing| to a good approximation| the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to present from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. It is shown that this observed relationship between these two variables is not well reproduced in the output of a general circulation model (GCM). The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous '' 2 CO2'' doubling experiment| using the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field to predict Iberian rainfall yields| there is an insignificant increase of area-averaged rainfall of 1 mm/month| with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the peninsula. In contrast| for the four GCM grid points representing the Iberian Peninsula| the change is - 10 mm/ month| with a minimum of - 19 mm/ month in the southwest. In the second experiment| with the IPCC scenario A (''business as usual'') increase of CO2| the statistical-model results partially differ from the directly simulated rainfall changes: in the experimental range of 100 years| the area-averaged rainfall decreases by 7 mm/month (statistical model)| and by 9 mm/month (GCM); at the same time the amplitude of the interdecadal variability is quite different.
3962,1993,2,4,EFFECTS OF CYCLONE WAVES ON MASSIVE CORAL ASSEMBLAGES ON THE GREAT-BARRIER-REEF - METEOROLOGY| HYDRODYNAMICS AND DEMOGRAPHY,Cyclone waves directly affect the density| structure and local distribution of coral assemblages by acting as agents of mortality and colony transport. Using the meteorological record| hydrodynamic formulations and risk analysis| we predict some demographic consequences of cyclones for massive corals growing in different regions of the Great Barrier Reef. Analysis of shear| compression and tension forces generated by waves indicate that corals firmly attached to solid substratum| even if only over a small proportion of their base| can resist all waves| regardless of colony size or shape| cyclone intensity or region. Waves are thus directly important as controls on colony-size frequency distributions only for weakly attached or unattached colonies. At 3 m depth| these colonies have a higher probability of escaping dislodgement in their first 10 years of life| the further north or south they are from 21-degrees-S| which is the latitude where severe cyclones are most frequent. At 21-degrees S| corals at depths as great as 12 m are exposed to the greatest likelihood of dislodgement. Possible implications of predicted increased storminess associated with global warming are briefly discussed. 2698,1993,3,3,EFFECTS OF INTENSIFICATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES ON EMISSION OF GREENHOUSE GASES,Poor quality diets of ruminant farm animals in developing countries lead to relatively large emissions of methane (a gas implicated in global climate change) per unit of useful animal product. Production of high quality feed requires intensive agronomic practices that result in increased emission of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide| which also contribute to global climate change. Focusing on India| we estimate that improved diets could reduce by one-third greenhouse gas production (expressed as CO2 equivalents) per kg of milk. On the other hand| replacement of bullocks with tractors is projected to result in a greater than two-fold increase in CO2 equivalents.
2703,1993,3,3,ENERGY AND CARBON EMISSIONS - SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE,This paper illustrates the importance of the full involvement of sub-Saharan African countries in the international debate on global climate change despite the relatively minor contribution these nations make to worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases. The paper suggests policies that will allow these African nations to support the growth in energy services required to foster economic development through the use of less carbon-intensive technologies. Such an energy strategy would raise the quality of life of the sub-Saharan African people| and simultaneously restrain the growth of energy-related carbon emissions. Given the necessary infrastructure and political commitment| these countries can overcome the barriers that could prevent the successful implementation of these policies without sacrificing their developmental goals.
4067,1993,3,4,ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL-MANAGEMENT INFORMATION-SYSTEMS,The threat of global warming| environmental instability and the possible use of green or carbon taxes on fossil fuels has increased the need for energy efficiency. Energy Conservation is now recognised as one of the easiest and most cost-effective ways of limiting or reducing CO2 emissions. Large UK companies are now assessing how much CO2 they dissipate to the environment and reviewing strategies to reduce this either in response to consumer demand or as a corporate policy decision. Computer-based information systems already exist to monitor and report on fluctuations in energy consumption. These are called Monitoring and Targeting (M & T) systems. This paper explains what M & T systems are and how they are being extended to cover reporting on corporate fuel-based CO2 emissions to help provide an integrated energy and environmental-management information system. 2693,1993,2,4,ENERGY-BALANCE COMPARISON OF SORGHUM AND SUNFLOWER,An understanding of the energy exchange processes at the surface of the earth is necessary for studies of global climate change. If the climate becomes drier| as is predicted for northern mid-latitudes| it is important to know how major agricultural crops will play a role in the budget of heat and moisture. Thus. the energy balance components of sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench.] and sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.)| two drought-resistant crops grown in the areas where summertime drying is forecasted. were compared. Soil water content and evapotranspiration (ET) rates also were determined. Net radiation was measured with net radiometers. Soil heat flux was analyzed with heat flux plates and thermocouples. The Bowen ratio method was used to determine sensible and latent heat fluxes. Sunflower had a higher evapotranspiration rate and depleted more water from the soil than sorghum. Soil heat flux into the soil during the daytime was greater for sorghum than sunflower| which was probably the result of the more erect leaves of sorghum. Nocturnal net radiation loss from the sorghum crop was greater than that from the sunflower crop| perhaps because more heat was stored in the soil under the sorghum crop. But daytime net radiation values were similar for the two crops. The data indicated that models of climate change must differentiate nighttime net radiation of agricultural crops. Sensible heat flux was not always less (or greater) for sorghum compared to sunflower. Sunflower had greater daytime values for latent heat flux. reflecting its greater depletion of water from the soil. Evapotranspiration rates determined by the energy balance method agreed relatively well with those found by the water balance method. For example| on 8 July (43 days after planting)| the ET rates found by the energy-balance and water-balance methods were 4.6 vs. 5.5 mm day for sunflower| respectively: for sorghum| these values were 4.0 vs. 3.5 mm day| respectively. If the climate does become drier. the lower soil water use and lower latent heat flux of sorghum compared to sunflower suggest that sorghum will be better adapted to the climate change.
4090,1993,3,2,ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC-IMPLICATIONS OF SMALL-SCALE CHP,This paper discusses the possible environmental and economic implications of small-scale combined heat and power (CHP) in the UK. The technology is based on internal combustion engines running on natural gas. Electricity is generated with high efficiency from a fuel that has the lowest carbon to energy content of the fossil fuels. Furthermore| this form of CHP has the potential to be applied very widely. Viable installations could range from 40 kW(e) in small commercial buildings to over 50 MW(e) on large industrial sites. Small-scale CHP therefore offers great scope for reducing emissions of CO2| a major contributor to global warming. 4083,1993,3,4,ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRICITY GENERATED BY DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES - ISSUES| PRIORITIES AND CARBON-DIOXIDE EMISSIONS,Owing to a very rapid growth in electricity generation in developing countries (DCs)| the environmental impacts associated with it are likely to increase strikingly. Whereas in the past DCs have not given these environmental issues high priority| this may change in the future because of both internal and external political pressures. It may perhaps also change through a growing recognition of the dangers of not pursuing development pathways that are sustainable over the long-term. There are significant differences between DCs and industrialised countries (ICs) in their attitudes towards appropriate| affordable policy responses to the threat of global warming. The paper begins by examining how and why the environmental issues associated with DC electricity generation are becoming increasingly pressing| both for DCs and for ICs. The issues are classified into categories. There is then a detailed discussion of greenhouse gas scenarios and the possible roles that may be played by DCs in the growth and limitation of carbon dioxide emissions. The paper notes the difficulties of reaching workable agreements on global greenhouse gas limitations that include the DCs. 4085,1993,3,4,ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ELECTRICITY-GENERATION - SOME PUBLIC-POLICY DIMENSIONS,Given the increased political salience of environmental constraints on the energy sector at large| and on power generation in particular| some of the principal policy issues which impinge upon the electricity supply industry (ESI) are examined. Particular emphasis is placed on the two most prominent issues: acid rain and global warming. More emphasis is given to supply-side issues rather than demand-side responses (such as least cost planning). The paper then examines the major characteristics of the UK's stock of generating plant and some of the means available for the ESI to adjust this stock in the light of both specific environmental and wider political pressures. 4084,1993,3,2,ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF NUCLEAR-POWER - PAST EXPERIENCE AND FUTURE-PROSPECTS,The environmental impacts of nuclear power generation are considered for the whole fuel cycle| from the mining of uranium to provide fuel for nuclear reactors right through to the disposal of radioactive wastes and the decommissioning of power stations. This is done for existing reactor types and possible future developments. The radiological impact of routine low level discharges of activity into the environment is small compared with that from natural background radioactivity| while risks to operators arising from exposure to ionising radiation are comparable with those experienced in other safe industries. The quantities of waste produced by the nuclear industry are modest compared with many other industries| and the disposal of most of it is a routine operation; the decommissioning of nuclear power stations at the end of their useful lives can be seen as a large waste management exercise. The potential for an accident in the UK| on the scale of the Chernobyl incident| is remote. Overall| nuclear power is well controlled and can be seen to have environmental benefits compared with other forms of power generation. Its many advantages include the reduction in greenhouse gases which contribute to global warming and other atmospheric pollutants which contribute to acid rain. Nuclear power adds desirable diversity to electricity supply| increasing the reliability of meeting energy needs. 4087,1993,3,3,ENVIRONMENTAL-IMPACT OF EUROPEAN PAPERMAKING - A COMPARISON OF PRIMARY AND RECYCLED FIBER SCENARIOS,A long-term scenario analysis of the environmental effects of different fibre raw materials has been carried out for European papermaking. The expected environmental impacts have been obtained through mathematical simulations. The results indicate that| in Europe| the use of large amounts of primary fibre| i.e. fibre derived from well-managed forests| is environmentally advantageous-assuming that excess waste paper is collected and used as biofuel-in comparison with a situation in which increasing amounts of collected waste paper form the main raw material for papermaking. It is believed that primary fibre will be preferred as efforts are increased to combat global warming. 2659,1993,2,3,ESTIMATION OF LOCAL PRECIPITATION STATISTICS REFLECTING CLIMATE-CHANGE,A stochastic approach is developed to estimate the probability of wet days| and the mean and standard deviation of local daily nonzero precipitation reflecting global climate change scenarios. The approach is based on the analysis of daily atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) and the linkage between types of CPs and daily precipitation. Three CP data sets are used for the 500-hPa pressure field: 40-year historical| 10-year 1 X CO2| and 10-year 2 X CO2 scenarios obtained from the atmospheric general circulation model of the Canadian Climate Centre. CP types obtained by clustering techniques and their frequency distribution are similar for the three data sets. The linkage between CP types and precipitation considers an additional variable| the spatial average pressure height within each CP type. The difference in pressure heights among the three CP data sets makes it possible to estimate the effect of global change on local precipitation statistics. Under the dry continental climate of eastern Nebraska the effect of 2 X CO2 scenario on local precipitation regime is spatially variable and significant: the number of wet days slightly decreases but both the mean and variance of daily precipitation increase resulting in a more variable precipitation regime.
3992,1993,2,3,ESTIMATIONS OF A GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL TREND - LIMITATIONS FROM THE STRUCTURE OF THE PSMSL GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL DATA SET,Among the possible impacts on environmental conditions of a global warming expected as a consequence of the increasing release of CO2 and various other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere| a predicted rise in global sea level is considered to be of high importance. Thus| quite a number of recent studies have focused on detecting the ''global sea level rise'' or even an acceleration of this trend. A brief review of these studies is presented| showing| however| that the results are not conclusive| though most of the studies have been based on a single global data set of coastal tide gauge data provided by the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). A detailed discussion of a thoroughly revised subset reveals that the PSMSL data set suffers from three severe limitations: (1) the geographical distribution of reliable tide gauge stations is rather uneven with pronounced concentrations in some areas of the northern hemisphere (Europe| North America| Japan)| and much fewer stations on the southern hemisphere where particularly few stations are located in Africa and in Antarctica; (2) the number of stations recording simultaneously at any time is far less than the total number of stations with the maximum within the interval between 1958 and 1988; (3) the number of long records is extremely small and almost all of them originate from a few regions of the northern hemisphere. The sensitivity of the median of the local trends to these temporal and spatial limitations is discussed by restricting the data set in both the spatial and temporal distribution. It is shown that the data base is insufficient for determining an integral value of the global rise in relative sea level. The effect of polar motion on sea level is modelled and it turns out to be locally of the order of 0.5 mm/yr| affecting regional trends to an order of 0.1 mm/yr. Thus| this effect can be neglected on time scale of decades to a hundred years. Though the data set is insufficient for determining an integral sea level rise| the data| nevertheless| are providing information concerning regional trends in sea level and even temporal variations in these regional patterns. Thus| the most comprehensive subset of the data reveals the existence of a significant interdecadal east-west fluctuation of the oceans possibly indicating some kind of teleconnection. Besides the limitations of the data set| the physical nature of the long term changes in relative sea level| which by no means are globally uniform| might render any globally averaged value of relative sea level rise useless for detecting climatic impacts or validating climate models. 3981,1993,3,3,EVALUATIONS OF FERTILIZATION OF THE OCEANS AS A COUNTERMEASURE OF CO2 PROBLEM,Fertilization technique is one of the countermeasures using the ocean| that can be used against the global warming. Fertilazation of the oceans with nutrients| such as nitrogen and phosphate| can promote the propagation of plant biota| leading to a decrease in the surface-ocean partial pressure of CO2| drawing down CO2 from the atmosphere. 3958,1993,4,7,EVIDENCE ON THE CLIMATE IMPACT OF SOLAR VARIATIONS,Friis-Christensen and Lassen report a close correspondence in the last 100 years between average Northern Hemisphere temperatures and changes in the length of the solar magnetic cycle. Observations of the sun and a number of solar-type stars suggest the explanation for this correlation. They reveal that (a) changes in the length of the magnetic activity cycle are correlated with changes in the amplitude of surface magnetic activity; (b) the amplitude changes in turn are positively correlated with changes in the sun's brightness. These relationships connect changes in the length of the solar cycle with solar irradiance changes. They supply a physical mechanism for the connection between terrestrial temperatures and the length of the solar cycle reported by Friis-Christensen and Lassen. Application of the same results to the history of solar surface magnetic activity since the Maunder Minimum yields the result that the change in solar irradiance from 1700 to the present could have been as small as 0.1% or as large as 0.7%. The mid-point of that range| a change in solar irradiance of 0.4%| is sufficient to explain all or most of the recovery from the Little Ice Age of the 17th Century and most of the half-degree global warming observed during the last 100 years. Satellite observations of solar irradiance over the 1978-1989 period have revealed a climatically insignificant brightness change of 0.1% over that period. Other stars similar to the sun display climatically significant changes of up to 0.6%| suggesting that at other times or over longer periods of time the sun may also change by larger amounts than were observed from 1978-1989.
4055,1993,2,4,EVOLUTION OF DARWIN FINCHES CAUSED BY A RARE CLIMATIC EVENT,Populations of animals and plants often undergo conspicuous ecological changes when subjected to climatic extremes. Evolutionary changes may accompany them but are less easily detected. We show that Darwin's finches on a Galapagos island underwent two evolutionary changes after a severe El Nino event caused changes in their food supply. Small beak sizes were selectively favoured in one granivorous species when large seeds became scarce. The effects of selection were transmitted to the next generation as a result of high trait heritabilities. Hybridization between this species and two others resulted in gene exchange| but only after the El Nino when hybrid fitness was much enhanced under the altered feeding conditions. These observations imply that if global warming increases the frequency or severity of El Nino events on the Galapagos| microevolutionary changes in animal and plant populations are to be anticipated. 4044,1993,3,4,EXPLORING THE GAP - TOP-DOWN VERSUS BOTTOM-UP ANALYSES OF THE COST OF MITIGATING GLOBAL WARMING,Top-down and bottom-up modelling techniques have been used to answer the question of how much would it cost to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These two types of models| however| were conceived and designed through different disciplines| for different purposes and lead to very different conclusions. Recent attempts to compare the two modelling approaches illustrate the difficulty in reconciling their results. In this paper| both modelling techniques are described and discussed| and the gap between their results is explored. 2681,1993,2,4,FACILITY FOR STUDYING THE EFFECTS OF ELEVATED CARBON-DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND INCREASED TEMPERATURE ON CROPS,The requirements for the experimental study of the effects of global climate change conditions on plants are outlined. A semi-controlled plant growth facility is described which allows the study of elevated CO2 and temperature| and their interaction on the growth of plants under radiation and temperature conditions similar to the field. During an experiment on winter wheat (cv. Mercia)| which ran from December 1990 through to August 1991| the facility maintained mean daytime CO2 concentrations of 363 and 692 cm3 m-3 for targets of 350 and 700 cm3 m-3 respectively. Temperatures were set to follow outside ambient or outside ambient +4-degrees-C| and hourly means were within 0.5-degrees-C of the target for 92% of the time for target temperatures greater than 6-degrees-C. Total photosynthetically active radiation incident on the crop (solar radiation supplemented by artifical light with natural photoperiod) was 2% greater than the total measured outside over the same period.
3996,1993,4,4,FOREST WILDFIRES AS A RECENT SOURCE OF CO2 AT NORTHERN LATITUDES,Since 1977| the extent of forest wildfires in the boreal and western regions of North America increased 6- to 9-fold over long-term trends| and an estimated 132 x 10(6) ha of temperate and boreal forest burned across the northern hemisphere. Emissions during and after burning may have been a significant feedback to global warming. Simulated carbon budgets indicated a hemispheric release of 1.4 Pg C during burning and 4.1 Pg C gross from CO2 fluxes postfire. The total release (5.5 Pg C) was 43% of the biospheric CO2 release to the atmosphere| 1977-1990. Over the next century (1991-2090)| continuing emissions from wood and soil decomposition will release an additional 6.9 Pg C gross. A large CO2 release was contrary to assumptions of little net carbon flux in the temperate and boreal forests. The pattern of attenuated CO2 release in northern forests also contrasted with sharp emission peaks in tropical deforestation. A simulation experiment indicated that the CO2 pulse from direct emissions per unit area was 10-fold larger in tropical deforestation than in northern forest wildfires on average; postfire release in the northern systems| however| was about 10 times longer in duration and only slightly less overall than in tropical deforestation fires. 2685,1993,2,3,FOREST-FIRES IN RUSSIA - CARBON-DIOXIDE EMISSIONS TO THE ATMOSPHERE,Boreal forests of Russia play a prominent role in the global carbon cycle and the flux of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Large areas of Russian forest burn annually| and contributions to the net flux of carbon to the atmosphere may be significant. Forest fire emissions were calculated for the years 1971-1991 using fire frequency and distribution data and fuel and carbon density for different forest ecoregions of Russia. Both direct carbon release and indirect post-fire biogenic carbon flux were estimated. From 1971 to 1991 the annual total forest area burned by wildfire ranged from 1.41 X 10(6) to 10.0 X 10(6) ha. Approximately 15 000 - 25 000 forest fires occurred annually during this period. Mean annual direct CO2-C emissions from wildfire was approximately 0.05 Pg over this 21 -year period. Total post-fire biogenic CO2-C emissions for 1971-1991 ranged from 2.5 to 5.9 Pg (0.12-0.28 Pg annually). Forest fires and other disturbances are expected to be a primary mechanism driving vegetation change associated with projected global climate change. Future forest fire scenarios in Russia based on general circulation model projections suggest that up to 30-50% of the land surface area| or 334 x 10(6) to 631 x 10(6) ha of forest| will be affected. An additional 6.7 x 10(6) to 12.6 x 10(6) ha of Russian boreal forest are projected to burn annually if general circulation model based vegetation-change scenarios are achieved within the next 50 years. The direct flux Of CO2-C from future forest fires is estimated to total 6.1-10.7 Pg over a 50-year period. Indirect post-fire biogenic release of greenhouse gases in the future is expected to be two to six times greater than direct emissions. Forest management and fire-control activities may help reduce wildfire severity and mitigate the associated pulse of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
4066,1993,3,2,GAS EMISSIONS FROM LANDFILLS AND THEIR CONTRIBUTIONS TO GLOBAL WARMING,The contribution of methane from UK landfills is described in relation to total gas emissions to the atmosphere and how these have been shown to contribute to global warming. The known effects that methane has on the atmosphere are reviewed and the relationship to those effects caused by other greenhouse gases is described. A methodology utilized in assessing the quantity of landfill gas emitted from landfill sites is described| as are the main principles used in a gas generation model Results of a survey| field trials and categorisation of the many types of site condition and waste mixtures are explained| including the techniques incorporated into the model to allow a potential gas yield to be predicted. The factors that limit this potential yield of methane such as the oxidizing capacity of soil are identified and assessed The potential effect of landfill-gas utilisation on the total emission and the economic viability of such schemes is reviewed in relation to reduced carbon dioxide and methane emissions. Combustion of landfill gas is shown to make a small net contribution to the potential equivalent CO2 reductions. The economics of energy recovery from landfill gas associated with CO2 reductions are shown lo be significantly better than other alternative energy forms. 3979,1993,3,3,GENERATION OF GREENHOUSE-EFFECT GASES FROM DIFFERENT LANDFILL TYPES,Recently much attention is focussed on the problems of global warming due to greenhouse effect gases| notably carbon dioxide and methane. Because these gases cause important problems to the global environment| their generation from landfill sites containing solid wastes has drawn attention and their environmental impact is causing concern. Generally| the gases associated with a greenhouse effect include carbon dioxide| methane and nitrous oxide. However| there are no general basic data available concerning gases generated from biodegradation of solid wastes in landfill sites. Specifically| no assessment has been made concerning greenhouse effect gases from different landfill types. This paper proposes a quantitative model for estimating the gasification rate by different landfill types. The model is based on measurement data for a long-term material balance for an aerobic landfill and an anaerobic landfill| obtained with two types of large-scale lysimeters. This paper will also give an estimate for the amount of greenhouse effect gases by for different types of landfill and propose countermeasures for their reduction. 2658,1993,2,4,GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN SOUTHERN AFRICA,An analysis tool was developed to simulate primary productivity and crop yields for both present and possible future climate conditions. Southern Africa was delineated into 712 relatively homogeneous climate zones| each with specific climate| soil and vegetation response information. The primary productivity and crop yield models were linked with the climate zones via a cell-based agrohydrological model| with the final output coordinated using a Geographic information System. The results of this preliminary study show a large dependence of production and crop yield on the intra-seasonal and inter-annual variation of rainfall. The most important conclusion from the study is the readiness of the developed tool and associated infrastructure for future analysis into social| technological and political responses to food security in southern Africa.
2682,1993,2,4,GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE AND TERRESTRIAL NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION,A process-based model was used to estimate global patterns of net primary production and soil nitrogen cycling for contemporary climate conditions and current atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over half of the global annual net primary production was estimated to occur in the tropics| with most of the production attributable to tropical evergreen forest. The effects of CO2 doubling and associated climate changes were also explored. The responses in tropical and dry temperate ecosystems were dominated by CO2| but those in northern and moist temperate ecosystems reflected the effects of temperature on nitrogen availability.
2683,1993,3,3,GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE| UNITED-STATES AGRICULTURE| AND CARBON-DIOXIDE,What should U.S. agriculture do to adapt for possible climate change and what can it do to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? An evaluation indicates that| unless there is a decline of about one-fourth in total crop yields| the U.S. land resource base will be adequate and food security can be met. The impacts of climate change on individual crop production regions are hard to predict| however| and may be either negative or positive. The assumption must be made that agriculture faces an uncertain future and| therefore| must rely upon experience| adoption of proven technologies| development of new technologies| and improved husbandry of land| water| and energy resources. Carbon dioxide| one of the greenhouse gases| can be emitted| as well as sequestered| in large amounts by agriculture. Agriculture has a great opportunity to help mitigate climate change by stashing CO2 as C in soil and vegetation and by displacing fossil fuels. Practices requiring good agricultural husbandry| which should be implemented anyway| can be quite effective for sequestering C. For cropland| these practices include building soil organic matter levels| improving soil fertility| and growing more food on less land. Carbon pools are maintained| restored| and enlarged on croplands by increased use of conservation tillage| improved use of animal and other wastes| minimized dryland fallowing| and preservation of marginal lands. On forestlands| reforestation| forestation (including tree planting on conservation reserve program land)| and improved forest harvesting practices maintain and enlarge C-pools. Preservation of wetlands does much to maintain C-pools. Collectively| these practices can potentially offset not only the CO2 emissions from U.S. agriculture| but also part of that from U.S. sources outside of agriculture.
4091,1993,4,4,GLOBAL TEMPERATURE MONITORING FROM SPACE,Global and regional temperature variations in the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere are examined for the period 1979-92 from Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) data obtained by the TIROS-N series of NOAA operational satellites. In the lower troposphere| globally-averaged temperature variations appear to be dominated by tropical El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cool) events and volcanic eruptions. The Pinatubo volcanic eruption in June 1991 appears to have initiated a cooling trend which persisted through the most recent data analyzed (July| 1992)| and largely overwhelmed the warming from the 1991-92 El Nino. The cooling has been stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature trend over the 13.5 year satellite record is small (+0.03 degrees C) compared to the year-to-year variability (0.2 degrees-0.4 degrees C)| making detection of any global warming signal fruitless to date. However| the future global warming trend| currently predicted to be around 0.3 degrees C/decade| will be much easier to discern should it develop. The lower stratospheric temperature record is dominated by warm episodes from the Pinatubo eruption and the March 1982 eruption of El Chichon volcano. 3980,1993,2,2,GLOBAL VEGETATION CHANGE PREDICTED BY THE MODIFIED BUDYKO MODEL,A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO2 doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL| GISS| OSU| and UKMO). Global vegetation maps after climate change are compared to the current climate vegetation map using the kappa statistic for judging agreement| as well as by calculating area statistics. All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable| although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole| although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones| vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Specifically| all Boreal vegetation classes are predicted to shrink. The interrelated classes of Tundra| Taiga| and Temperate Forest are predicted to replace much of their poleward mostly northern) neighbors. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favoring either Forest over Savanna| or vice versa| will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO2 doubling| it is nevertheless not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 4086,1993,3,3,GLOBAL WARMING - TRENDS AND EFFECTS,As animals we have been a remarkably successful species; but also as animals we are vulnerable to environmental| in particular climate change. Such change is accelerating as a result of human activity| and global warming may already be taking place. Although we can foresee the trends| we cannot yet be specific about the results. Change usually proceeds by steps rather than gradients. But warming would probably include new risks to human health and contribute to an increase in human displacement. Of course climate change is only one among other complex problems facing human society| but it is closely related to them all| including population increase| environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. We cannot prevent global warming but we can anticipate and mitigate some of its worst effects. Peoples and governments still need persuading of the need for action and of the magnitude of the issue at stake. 4011,1993,2,4,GLOBAL WARMING AND FOREST-FIRES IN CANADA,The looming possibility of global warming raises legitimate concerns for the future of the forest resource in Canada. While evidence of a global warming trend is not conclusive at this time| governments would be wise to anticipate| and begin planning for| such an eventuality. The forest fire business is likely to be affected both early and dramatically by any trend toward warmer and drier conditions in Canada| and fire managers should be aware that the future will likely require new and innovative thinking in forest fire management. This paper summarizes research activities currently underway to assess the impact of global warming on forest fires. and speculates on future fire management problems and strategies. 4017,1993,2,4,GLOBAL WARMING AND THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY,In the last few decades| the international insurance industry has been confronted with a drastic increase in the scope and frequency of great natural disasters. The trend is primarily attributable to the continuing steady growth of the world population and the increasing concentration of people and economic values in urban areas. An additional factor is the global migration of populations and industries into areas such as coastal regions| which are particularly exposed to natural hazards. The natural hazards themselves| on the other hand| have not yet shown any significant increase. In addition to the problems the insurance industry has with regard to pricing| capacity and loss reserves| the assessment of insured liabilities| preventive planning and the proper adjustment of catastrophe losses are gaining importance. The present problems will be dramatically aggravated if the greenhouse predictions come true. The increased intensity of all convective processes in the atmosphere will force up the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones| tornados| hailstorms| floods and storm surges in many parts of the world with serious consequences for all types of property insurance. Rates will have to be raised and in certain coastal areas insurance cover will only be available after considerable restrictions have been imposed| as for example significant deductibles and low liability or loss limits. In areas of high insurance density the loss potential of individual catastrophes can reach a level at which the national and international insurance industries will run into serious capacity problems. Recent disasters showed the disproportionately high participation of reinsurers in extreme disaster losses and the need for more risk transparency if the insurance industry is to fulfil its obligations in an increasingly hostile environment. 3989,1993,3,4,GLOBAL WARMING AND THE INTERNAL ENERGY MARKET - POLICY INTEGRATION OR POLARIZATION,This paper examines to what extent the European Community is progressing towards realizing its objective of integrating energy and environment policies by looking at two current policy developments; the CO2 reduction strategy and the internal energy market (IEM) initiative. It argues that to date adjustments to energy policy have been made essentially at the margin| resulting in a number of policy tensions. The IEM proposals are based on a very narrow definition of efficiency and fail to address crucial areas like the promotion of renewable energy sources or end-use efficiency. Not all the implications are negative but incidental benefits hardly point to better integration. 4022,1993,4,4,GLOBAL WARMING AND THE PROBLEM OF TESTING FOR TREND IN TIME-SERIES DATA,In recent years a number of statistical tests have been proposed for testing the hypothesis that global warming is occurring. The standard approach is to examine one or two of the more prominent global temperature datasets by letting Y(t) = a + bt + E(t) where Y(t) represents the temperature at time t| and E(t) represents error from the trend line| and to test the hypothesis that b = 0. Several authors have applied these tests for trend to determine whether or not a significant long-term or deterministic trend exists| and have generally concluded that there is a significant deterministic trend in the data. However| we show that certain autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models may also be very reasonable models for these data due to the random trends present in their realizations. In this paper| we provide simulation evidence to show that the tests for trend detect a deterministic trend in a relatively high percentage of realizations from a wide range of ARMA models| including those obtained for the temperature series| for which it is improper to forecast a trend to continue over more than a very short time period. Thus| we demonstrate that trend tests based on models such as Y(t) = a + bt + E(t) for the purpose of prediction or inference concerning future behavior should be used with caution. Of course| the projections that the warming trend will extend into the future are largely based on such factors as the buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gases. We have shown here| however| that based solely on the available temperature anomaly series| it is difficult to conclude that the trend will continue over any extended length of time. 4051,1993,2,3,GLOBAL WARMING FROM CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS AND THEIR ALTERNATIVES - TIME SCALES OF CHEMISTRY AND CLIMATE,The halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons| CFCs| and their replacement chemicals: the hydrochlorofluorocarbons| HCFCs| and the hydrofluorocarbons| HFCs) are greenhouse gases. The atmospheric accumulation of these gases is expected to add to the global warming predicted for expected increases of CO2| CH4| N2O| tropospheric ozone and H2O. Over the next decades| production of CFCs is scheduled to be phased out| while emissions of their alternatives are expected to increase. A simple model is used to illustrate the methodology for determining the time variations of the radiative forcing and temperature changes attributable to the direct greenhouse effect from potential emissions of the halocarbons. Although there are uncertainties associated with the lifetimes of the greenhouse gases| CFCs and their substitutes| the future growth rates of these gases| and the parameters used to simulate the response of the Earth-climate system| the method serves to illustrate an important aspect of the greenhouse warming issue beyond what is provided by the various greenhouse warming indices. Our results show that for likely substitution scenarios| the warming due to halocarbons will correspond to 4-10% of the total expected greenhouse warming at the year 2100. However| uncontrolled growth of the substitutes could result in an eight-fold increase in halocarbon production and a doubling of the halocarbon contribution by 2100. 4007,1993,2,2,GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS OF TRANSPORT,Global warming is expected to occur due to carbon dioxide and other gases emitted in the course of human activities. Due to uncertainties about atmospheric chemistry| few attempts have been made to quantify the impact of emissions of NO(x)| non-methane hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide. Atmospheric chemistry modelling at Harwell Laboratory has resulted in preliminary estimates of the impact of trace gases including NO(x)| many hydrocarbon species| carbon monoxide and water vapour on global warming. These estimates have been applied to emissions from transport| with particular attention to cars. It is found that the use of three-way catalysts on cars could reduce their global warming impact. IDI diesel engines have still less global warming impact. High NO(x)| CO and hydrocarbon emissions from DI diesels could result in a higher impact from these engines than from IDI diesels. Emissions from air-craft are injected into the troposphere at the height where they have a maximal effect on global warming. Although modelling of aircraft impact is at a very early stage| the first results indicate that air travel could become an important cause of global warming. 2666,1993,2,4,GREAT-LAKES TOXIC SEDIMENTS AND CLIMATE-CHANGE - IMPLICATIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL REMEDIATION,Toxic sediments remediation represents a potentially long-term environmental programme in the Great Lakes Basin. The prospect of declining lake levels due to global climate change in coming decades presents challenges to environmental policy makers concerned with choosing appropriate toxics clean-up methods and timing. It is important to integrate the possibility of declining lake levels into Great Lakes toxic sediments remediation in order to ensure that long-term environmental policy is not in conflict with the potential regional hydrological impacts of climate change.
4088,1993,3,4,GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS| ABATEMENT AND CONTROL - THE ROLE OF COAL,The basis for quantifying the relative effect of greenhouse gas emissions from coal utilisation is discussed. Emission factors (g of C/MJ) need to include greenhouse gas emissions and energy losses throughout the fuel cycle in order to compare the fuels. Nevertheless| CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas from coal. Emission factors have decreased due to improved efficiency of coal use. The scope for further improvements in efficiency of conventional and advanced power generation is assessed. Control of CO2 emissions is viewed as a less promising option owing to the high cost and energy penalty of most methods. It is concluded that there is no firm basis for evaluating the effect of reducing emissions on their global warming potential. However| it is desirable that available technologies be implemented to reduce emissions by improved efficiency. 4071,1993,3,3,GREENHOUSE GASES FROM BIOMASS AND FOSSIL-FUEL STOVES IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES - A MANILA PILOT-STUDY,Samples were taken of the combustion gases released by household cookstoves in Manila| Philippines. In a total of 24 samples| 14 cookstoves were tested. These were fueled by liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)| kerosene (three kinds of stoves)| charcoal| and wood. Ambient samples were also taken. All samples were analyzed for CO2| CO| CH4| N2O| and total non-methane organic compounds (TNMOC). Results generally confirm increasing emissions for most products of incomplete combustion moving down the ''energy ladder'' from gaseous to liquid to processed solid to unprocessed solid fuels. Although the sample size and number of background samples were too small to give great confidence in the results| extrapolation of the emission ratios (each gas relative to CO2) to global estimates indicates that published global inventories of several gases important in atmospheric chemistry may be somewhat too small for the fuelwood combustion category. When weighted by global warming potentials| the greenhouse impact of the emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases from wood combustion may rival or exceed those from CO2 alone. If verified| this could have substantial implications for energy and environmental policies in developing countries. These tentative findings indicate that more measurements of this type in developing countries would be justified. 4048,1993,3,3,GREENHOUSE POLICY,How quickly we must respond| and by how much| to the threat of global warming depends on how much increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations will change climate| and what the consequences of such a climate change will be. Yet our knowledge of these climatic changes is uncertain. I provide a basis for understanding why this is so with information about the greenhouse effect| climate modeling and simulation| and economic and policy analysis. I examine a sequential-decision strategy for abating climate change wherein either moderate emissions reduction-energy conservation alone-or aggressive emissions reduction-energy conservation plus switching to non-fossil fuels-is begun in the near-term (1992 to 2002). Results show that the difference in emission rates and costs between the moderate and aggressive near-term policies is much smaller than the difference in emission rates and costs between the different climate targets. Thus| if future research shows that the damage cost of climate change is high| the optimum climate target will be low and the global consumption of fossil fuels must be sharply reduced much earlier than if the damage cost of climate change is low| regardless of which near-term policy is chosen. 4025,1993,3,3,GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS FROM THE USE OF NEW FUELS FOR TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRICITY,Concern about global warming| poor urban air quality and dependence on insecure sources of oil are leading many nations to examine alternative energy sources and technologies for transportation and electricity generation. This analysis shows that most of the near-term fossil fuel-based alternatives would not dramatically reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. However| in the long run| several ultra-low-emission fuels and technologies are available. The major uncertainties in the analysis are the efficiency of energy use| the warming potential of greenhouse gases other than CO2 and the economic and political context in which energy is used. 4054,1993,5,4,GREENLAND - A TEMPTATION AND A CHALLENGE,Research into the causes of global warming resulting from anthropogenic factors has shown that the causes of climatic change are far more complex than has been supposed. In particular| it has directed attention to enormous climatic fluctuations that occurred in the very distant past| long before mankind appeared. The recent completion of the drilling phase of the Greenland Ice-core Project (GRIP) has already thrown much light on longterm changes in the Northern Hemisphere. It is clear-that there were many substantial changes in mean temperature and in the course of the Gulf Stream during the last glaciation. 4035,1993,2,3,GROUNDWATER FLUXES IN THE GLOBAL HYDROLOGIC-CYCLE - PAST| PRESENT AND FUTURE,A quantification of groundwater fluxes in the hydrologic cycle for large river basins and on a global scale is reported in this paper. Groundwater contributions to river runoff (i.e. baseflow)| direct submarine groundwater discharge to the ocean floor| and salt throughput to oceans and seas are analyzed. The baseflow/precipitation and baseflow/river runoff ratios are found to be approximately 10% and 30% on a world-wide basis| showing great geographical variability across the major continents of the Earth. Direct groundwater discharge to the ocean floor is only 6% of the total water influx to oceans and seas| yet| it contributes a salt load to oceans and seas that is approximately 50% of the salt loading by rivers. Factors and uncertainties germane to global groundwater balancing| recent anthropogenic modifications of groundwater contributions to runoff| and the likely role of potential global warming in groundwater circulation are discussed. Over the last 300 years baseflow contribution to river runoff has slightly increased| whereas the river runoff has declined as a result of anthropogenic modifications to the natural environment. Assuming a 10% increase in global annual precipitation from potential greenhouse warming| the associated increases in baseflow contribution to river runoff and direct groundwater discharge to oceans would amount to 1200 km3 year-1 and 260 km3 year-1| respectively. The additional salt load to oceans and seas by direct groundwater flow is estimated at 140 000 000 t year-1. Salinity of oceans and seas could rise if their water volumes do not increase enough to offset the larger salt load. 2687,1993,4,4,HIGH-LATITUDE OCEANIC VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 18.6-YEAR NODAL TIDE,Ocean temperatures in the upper 250 m in the northern North Pacific (60-degrees-N| 149-degrees-W) increased bt more than 1-degrees-C from 1972 to 1098 but are now decreasing. Subsurface temperature anomalies are well correlated (approximately 0.58) with the air temperature anomalies at Sitka| Alaska; hence the coastal air temperatures can be used as a proxy data set to extend the ocean temperature time series back to 1828. Up to 30% of the low-frequency variance can be accounted for with the 18.6-year nodal signal. Additionally. spectral analysis of these air temperature variations indicates a significant low-frequency peak in the range of the 18.6-year signal. Similar low-frequency signals have been reported for Hudson Bay air temperatures since 1700| for sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic from 1876 to 1939| and for sea level in the high-latitude southern hemisphere. The water column temperature variations presented here are the first evidence that the upper ocean is responding to this very long period tidal forcing. An enhanced high-latitude response to the 18.6-year forcing is predicted by equilibrium tide theory| and it should be most evident at latitudes poleward of about 50-degrees. These low-frequency ocean-atmosphere variations must - be considered in high-latitude assessments of global climate change| since they are of the same magnitude as many of the predicted global changes.
4038,1993,4,1,HOW SENSITIVE IS THE WORLDS CLIMATE,We estimate climate sensitivity from observed climate change on time scales ranging from the 100 000-year periods of major ice ages to brief periods of cooling after major volcanic eruptions. The real-world data indicate that climate is very sensitive| equivalent to a warming of 3 +/- 1-degrees-C for doubled atmospheric CO2. Observed global warming of approximately 0.5-degrees-C in the past 140 years is consistent with anthropogenic greenhouse gases being the dominant climate-forcing in that period. But interpretation of current climate change is extraordinarily complex| because of lack of observations of several climate forcings as well as an unpredictable chaotic aspect of climate change. Climate change during the next decade may help confirm knowledge of climate sensitivity| if global climate forcings are accurately observed. 3999,1993,2,4,HUMAN INFLUENCE IN GEOMORPHOLOGY,The human influence in geomorphology has a long history| and major contributions have| for example| been made by Shaler| McGee| Gilbert and Marsh. However| in the last two decades concern with global environmental change has brought the role of anthropogeomorphology into sharper focus. Global warming| if it occurs| will have important implications for many geomorphological processes and phenomena as a result of the direct effects of warming| as a consequence of other related climatic changes (e.g. precipitation change) and as a result of climatically moderated changes in major geomorphologically significant variables (e.g. vegetation cover). Large uncertainties exist with respect to such matters as hydrological response| the frequency of tropical cyclones| the speed and degree of permafrost degradation| the response of glaciers and ice caps| the extent of sea level rise| the reaction of beaches to rising sea levels| and the state of wetlands| deltas and coral reefs. Other human activities may serve to compound the effects of global warming on geomorphological processes. Given the uncertainties of so many of the environmental changes| there is a great need to obtain a greater understanding of the rates and mechanisms of landform response. Geomorphologists need| inter alia| to establish long-term study sites that will generate base-line data| to monitor the location and rate of change using sequential cartographic and remote sensing materials| to determine information on natural background levels and long-term trends by means of data gained from cores| to gain a more profound understanding of the operation of geomorphological systems particularly with regard to sensitivities and thresholds| and to appreciate the consequences of deliberate manipulation of environmental systems by humans. 4043,1993,3,4,IMPLEMENTATION OF GREENHOUSE-GAS REDUCTIONS IN THE EUROPEAN-COMMUNITY - INSTITUTIONAL AND CULTURAL-FACTORS,The European Community is the only supranational entity with legally constituted policy sovereignty over its member countries. However| attempts to establish EC policy on global warming have coincided with intensifying conflict over moves to greater monetary and political union. The roles of The Netherlands| Germany| and the UK are contrasted in some detail| especially in relation to degrees of interventionism. The study concludes that a proposed carbon tax is likely to be favoured as leaving the least footprint of central political authority. However| the Community has also developed considerable informal sophistication to compensate for the formal limitations of its authority over member states. This is influenced by a network of NGOs able to pursue policy aims at the local level. 2689,1993,4,4,INDONESIA AND GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS - POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS FOR PARTICIPATION| LEADERSHIP| AND COMMITMENT,The author discusses factors likely to affect Indonesia's participation in global climate change mitigation negotiations. These include Indonesia's performance to date in the international arena and its track record for compliance with agreements; domestic challenges such as demographic pressures| economic growth| deforestation| and energy consumption; the institutional culture of the government; and the activities and limitations of the legal system| non-governmental organizations| and business. The author concludes that| while the Indonesian government may be a vocal advocate for 'sustainable development'| it has little ability to follow through on large-scale commitments to international efforts because of issues It faces at home.
4008,1993,4,4,INFRARED CROSS-SECTIONS AND GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS OF 10 ALTERNATIVE HYDROHALOCARBONS,Absorption cross sections have been obtained in the infrared atmospheric window| between 600 and 1500 cm-1| for 10 alternative hydrohalocarbons: HCFC22| HCFC123| HCFC124| HCFC141b| HCFC142b| HCFC225ca| HCFC225cb| HFC125| HFC134a and HFC152a. The measurements were made at three temperatures (287 K| 270 K and 253 K) with a Fourier transform spectrometer operating at 0.03 cm-1 apodized resolution. Integrated cross sections have been introduced into a two-dimensional radiative-chemical-dynamical model in order to calculate the global warming potential (GWP) of each gas. 3960,1993,4,3,INSENSITIVITY OF GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS TO CARBON-DIOXIDE EMISSION SCENARIOS,GLOBAL warming potentials for radiatively active trace gases (such as methane and chlorofluorocarbons) have generally been expressed1|2 relative to the time-integrated climate forcing per unit emission of carbon dioxide. Previous attempts to estimate the integrated climate forcing per unit CO2 emitted have focused on perturbations to steady-state conditions in carbon-cycle models. But for non-steady-state conditions| the integrated climate forcing from a CO2 perturbation depends both on the initial conditions and on future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. As atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase| the radiative forcing per unit CO2 emitted will become smaller because the strongest absorption bands will already be saturated. At the same time| higher concentrations of dissolved carbon in the surface ocean will reduce the ocean's ability to absorb excess CO2 from the atmosphere. Each of these effects taken alone would affect the climate forcing from a pulse of emitted CO2 by a factor of three or more; but here we show that| taken together| they compensate for each other. The net result is that the global warming potential of CO2 relative to other radiatively active trace gases is nearly independent of the CO2 emission scenario. Thus| the concept of the global warming potential remains useful| despite the nonlinearities in the climate system and uncertainties in future emissions. 4037,1993,2,4,LAKE LEVEL REGULATION AND SHORELINE EROSION ON FLATHEAD LAKE| MONTANA - A RESPONSE TO THE REDISTRIBUTION OF ANNUAL WAVE ENERGY,Concern regarding increased coastal erosion has heightened amid growing acceptance of global warming and associated sea-level rise. Attention has focused on the absolute elevation of sea-level rise| whereas shoreline erosion may result more from the redistribution of wave energy over the duration of the sea-level rise. This study examines shoreline erosion in Flathead Lake| Montana| resulting from a redistribution of annual wave energy due to five decades of regulated lake levels by a dam at the lake's outlet. The annual rise in lake level is held for an extended duration at a regulated ''full pool'' level which is approximately 3 m above its natural base elevation. The total time for a complete cycle of lake level change also has been increased from 100 days to over 300 days. Alteration of the natural lake level fluctuation has resulted in a transfer of annual wave energy from base elevations corresponding to the pre-dam nearshore shelf| to elevations corresponding to the limnetic foreshore environment| thereby inducing lake-wide erosion. The most extensive erosion has occurred along the low-lying dissipative north shore of the lake. The redistribution of annual wave energy due to regulated lake level fluctuation is the main factor contributing to that erosion. The redistribution of annual incident wave energy is examined in terms of an increase in the duration of the complete natural lake-level cycle| a reduced range in lake level fluctuation| and an elevated full pool lake level. Both the duration of lake level cycle and range in water level fluctuation affect the distribution of incident wave energy and were found to be more important to shoreline erosion than an absolute elevated water level. An alternative regulation scheme incorporating concerns for both hydropower production and lake recreation is proposed and examined in terms of reducing erosion. Altering the regulated lake level fluctuation by changing the timing and increasing the rate of lake level drawdown| would result in a significant reduction in the amount of annual wave energy that reaches the eroding full pool shoreline| thereby reducing the potential for take-wide shoreline erosion. 4057,1993,2,4,LARGE INCREASES IN FLOOD MAGNITUDE IN RESPONSE TO MODEST CHANGES IN CLIMATE,RECENT examinations of the possible hydrological response to global warming have emphasized changes in average conditions| rather than individual flooding events1-5. Historical accounts suggest| however| that such events may have had a considerable regional impact6-9 even in the face of any relatively modest climate change8. Here I present a 7|000-year geological record of overbank floods for upper Mississippi river tributaries in mid-continent North America| which provides concrete evidence for a high sensitivity of flood occurrence to changing climate. During a warmer| drier period between about 3|300 and 5|000 years ago| the largest| extremely rare floods were relatively small-the size of floods that now occur about once every fifty years. After approximately 3|300 years ago| when the climate became cooler and wetter| an abrupt shift in flood behaviour occurred| with frequent floods of a size that now recurs only once every 500 years or more. Still larger floods occurred between about AD 1250 and 1450| during the transition from the medieval warm interval to the cooler Little ice Age. All of these changes were apparently associated with changes in mean annual temperature of only about 1-2-degrees-C and changes in mean annual precipitation of less-than-or-equal-to 10-20%. 4059,1993,2,4,LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS AND GLOBAL WARMING,Predictions of future climate change raise a variety of issues in large-scale atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. Several of these are reviewed in this essay| including the sensitivity of the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean to increasing freshwater input at high latitudes; the possibility of greenhouse cooling in the southern oceans; the sensitivity of monsoonal circulations to differential warming of the two hemispheres; the response of midlatitude storms to changing temperature gradients and increasing water vapor in the atmosphere; and the possible importance of positive feedback between the mean winds and eddy-induced heating in the polar stratosphere. 3993,1993,5,4,LATEST PALEOCENE LITHOLOGIC AND BIOTIC EVENTS IN NERITIC DEPOSITS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW-JERSEY,In the southwestern New Jersey Coastal Plain| four drill holes contain continuous neritic sedimentation across the Paleocene/Eocene boundary (calcareous nannofossil Zone NP 9/NP 10 boundary). Significant lithologic and biotic changes occur in these strata near the top of the Paleocene. Global warming| increased precipitation| and other oceanographic and climatic events that have been recognized in high-latitude| deep-oceanic deposits of the latest Paleocene also influenced mid-latitude| shallow-marine| and terrestrial environments of the western North Atlantic. The diverse| well-preserved calcareous nannofossil flora that is present throughout the entire New Jersey boundary section accurately places these events within the uppermost part of the upper Paleocene Zone NP 9. Several rapid but gradational changes occur within a 1.1-m interval near the top of Zone NP 9. The changes include (1) a change in lithology from glauconitic quartz sand to clay| (2) a change in clay mineral suites from illite/smectite-dominated to kaolinite-dominated| (3) a change in benthic foraminiferal assemblages to a lower diversity fauna suggestive of low-oxygen environments| (4) a significant increase in planktonic foraminiferal abundance| and (5) an increased species turnover rate in marine calcareous nannofossils. Pollen was sparse in the New Jersey drill holes| but terrestrial sporomorph species in Virginia exhibit increased turnover rates at a correlative level. Foraminiferal assemblages and lithology indicate that relative sea level rose in New Jersey at the same time as these late Paleocene events occurred in late Biochron NP 9. The higher sea levels influenced sediment type and absolute abundance of planktonic foraminifers in the deposits. Above the initial increase of kaolinite in the upper part of Zone NP 9| the kaolinite percentage continues to increase| and the maximum kaolinite value occurs in the uppermost part of Zone NP 9. There are few changes in either the sediments or the biota precisely at the Zone NP 9/NP 10 boundary in New Jersey. The clay-rich deposits with a high kaolinite clay mineral suite| the lowered diversity benthic foraminiferal assemblages| the abundant planktonic foraminiferal specimens| and the calcareous nannofossil assemblages continued essentially unchanged into the earliest Eocene Zone NP 10. Within the lower part of Zone NP 10| the kaolinite percentage decreased to very low values. 4026,1993,3,4,LINKED SIMULATION OF LAND-USE AND TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS - DEVELOPMENTS AND EXPERIENCE IN THE PUGET SOUND REGION,Strategies to reduce motor vehicle travel by altering urban spatial structure are one piece of a comprehensive program to slow global warming. While the connections between urban spatial form and urban travel have long been recognized| there have been few attempts in the United States to model the interactions within the context of a public planning program in an urban region. One such effort| the Vision 2020 plan in the Seattle region| is described in this paper. The modeling tools utilized widely available travel and land-use models| applied interactively. A wide range of variables| consisting of transportation facility investments| demand management measures and land-use controls| were grouped into identifiable long-term alternatives. The analysis suggested some ambiguity in the ability to model the processes| particularly within a highly political planning program| and indicated rather modest effects of land-use changes on reducing urban travel over 20 to 30 years. Land use and demand management were most effective when supported by significant investment in facilities| including transit. Although attempting to alter urban spatial structure may not be the most cost-effective place to seek reductions in vehicular emissions over this period of time| planning programs like Seattle's may be an opportunity to mold less travel-dependent urban regions for the next century. 2664,1993,2,4,LONG-TERM IMPACTS OF FOREST TREATMENTS ON WATER YIELD - A SUMMARY FOR NORTHEASTERN USA,Long-term changes in annual water yield are summarized and compared for 11 catchment studies in the northeastern USA. Substantial increases in water yield of up to 350 mm year-1 were obtained in the first year by clearing forest vegetation and controlling regrowth with herbicides. Commercial clearcutting with natural regrowth resulted in initial increases in water yield of 110-250 mm year-1. This range in response was due to differences in precipitation and configuration of cuttings. Unless regrowth was controlled with herbicides| yield increases declined quickly after cutting| seldom persisting for more than 10 years. However| yield increases were readily extended over 20 years or more with intermediate cuttings and/or repeated control of regrowth with herbicides. Nearly all increases in water yield occur during the growing season as augmentation of baseflow. Changes in species composition after forest cutting on several study catchments eventually resulted in decreased water yields compared with those from uncut| control catchments. Results are discussed in terms of implications for surface water supplies| global climate change| nutrient cycling| hydrological modeling| and long-term research.
4064,1993,2,3,LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY AND CO2 TRANSIENT CLIMATE CHANGE .1. TIME-AVERAGED DIFFERENCES,Results from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) are used to perform the first in a series of studies of the various time and space scales of climate anomalies in an environment of gradually increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) (a linear transient increase of 1% per year in the coupled model). Since observed climate anomaly patterns often are computed as time-averaged differences between two periods| climate-change signals in the coupled model are defined using differences of various averaging intervals between the transient and control integrations. Annual mean surface air temperature differences for several regions show that the Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere and that land areas warm faster than ocean. The high northern latitudes outside the North Atlantic contribute most to global warming but also exhibit great variability| while the high southern latitudes contribute the least. The equatorial tropics warm more slowly than the subtropics due to strong upwelling and mixing in the ocean. The globally averaged surface air temperature trend computed from annual mean differences for years 23-60 is 0.03-degrees-C per year. Projecting this trend to the time of CO2 doubling in year 100 produces a warming of 2.3-degrees-C. By chance| one particular northern winter five-year average geographical difference pattern in the Northern Hemisphere from the coupled model resembles the recent observed pattern of surface temperature and sea-level pressure anomalies. This pattern is not consistent from one five-year period to the next in any season in the model. However| multidecadal averages in the coupled model show that the North Atlantic warms less than the rest of the high northern latitudes| and recent observations may be a manifestation of this phenomenon. Consistent geographic patterns of climate anomalies forced by increased CO2 in the model are more evident with a longer averaging interval. There is also the possibility that the CO2 climate-change signal may itself be a function of time and space. The general pattern of zonal mean temperature anomalies for all periods in the model shows warming in the troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere. This pattern (or one similar to it taking into account the rest of the trace gases) could be looked for in observations to verify the enhanced greenhouse effect. A zonal mean pattern| however| could prove scientifically satisfactory but of little value to policymakers seeking regional climate-change forecasts. These results from the coupled model underscore the difficulty in identifying a time- and space-dependent ''fingerprint' of greenhouse warming that has some practical use from short climatic records and point to the need to understand the mechanisms of decadal-scale variability. 2690,1993,4,4,MANAGING THE GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE-BASE,Successful problem solving is the key to survival and wealth for individuals| corporations| and nations alike. Successful problem solving depends upon 1) the nature and complexity of the problem to be solved; 2) the accessibility of high quality| relevant knowledge; and 3) a well-led team of effective individuals who can use knowledge wisely. Many centuries of managing our natural resources based on decisions with poorly understood consequences may be changing the climate of our planet. As a response to this threat| many nations have funded an unprecedented scientific research and assessment program which is resulting in a rapidly expanding global climate change knowledge base. Learning how to manage the knowledge that will allow us to successfully solve the global climate change problem is a very important component of the overall research effort. Currently| hypertext appears to offer the most promising electronic technology for general-purpose knowledge management. In this paper| hypertext authoring is described| a pilot study to develop a hypertext scientific assessment of the forest and soil carbon cycle is introduced| and the major research issues that will need to be solved are identified.
4014,1993,2,4,MEASUREMENT OF THE RETREAT OF QORI KALIS GLACIER IN THE TROPICAL ANDES OF PERU BY TERRESTRIAL PHOTOGRAMMETRY,Although the consequences of global warming in the last century may be most pronounced on glaciers of the tropics and subtropics| documentation of their recent retreat is extremely limited. The extent and volume of the largest outlet glacier from the Quelccaya Ice Cap (14-degrees-S| 71-degrees-W| 5200 m above sea level) have been measured four times between 1963 and 1991| once by aerial and three times by terrestrial photogrammetry. Drastic and accelerating rates of retreat of the terminus and of ice volume loss have been documented. The rate of retreat was nearly three times as fast between 1983 and 1991 as between 1963 and 1978 and the rate of volume loss was over seven times as great. These results are consistent with the warming in this region and with the behavior of tropical glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca in Peru and in the Ruwenzori Mountains and on Mount Kenya in East Africa. 4031,1993,3,3,MEMBRANE-DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SEPARATION OF H-2 AND CO2 - SCREENING-TESTS,As a fall-back response to the possibility of Global Warming due lo increasing gases in the atmosphere British Coal is investigating Low-CO2 Power Generation options. One of the most promising options is an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) system using a membrane separation unit to separate H-2 and CO2. However| the performance requirements cannot be met by currently available commercial membranes. A small-scale membrane permeation test rig has been designed and built at CRE. This paper describes screening tests carried out on polymeric and Pd/Ag alloy membranes. The most promising of these was the Pd/Ag alloy as it did not pass any CO2. Microporous ceramics and thin films of Pd/Ag deposited onto a suitable porous substrate will be tested in the near future. 4075,1993,2,4,METHANE EMISSION FROM ARCTIC TUNDRA,Concerns about a possible feedback effect on global warming following possible increased emissions of methane from tundra environments have lead to series of methane flux studies of northern wetland/tundra environments. Most of these studies have been carried out in boreal sub-Arctic regions using different techniques and means of assessing representativeness of the tundra. Here are reported a time series of CH4 flux measurements from a true Arctic tundra site. A total of 528 independent observations were made at 22 fixed sites during the summers of 1991 and 1992. The data are fully comparable to the most extensive dataset yet produced on methane emissions from sub-Arctic tundra-like environments. Based on the data presented| from a thaw-season with approximately 55% of normal precipitation| a global tundra CH4 source of 18-30 Tg CH4 yr-1 is estimated. This is within the range of 42 +/- 26 Tg CH4 yr-1 found in a similar sub-Arctic tundra environment. No single-parameter relationship between one environmental factor and CH4 flux covering all sites was found. This is also in line with conclusions drawn in the sub-Arctic. However| inter-season variations in CH4 flux at dry sites were largely controlled by the position of the water table| while flux from wetter sites seemed mainly to be controlled by soil temperature. 2701,1993,3,4,METHANE FROM BIOMASS SYSTEMS-ANALYSIS AND CO2 ABATEMENT POTENTIAL,A mathematical model of terrestrial biomass biogasification is presented. This model calculates mass and energy balances and the levelized cost of synthetic natural gas (SNG). It consists of interconnected modules for harvesting| biomass transportation| biogasification| gas processing| energy balance| global climate change| and economics. The conversion module incorporates bioconversion technology recently developed at pilot scale at Cornell University and Walt Disney World. In large-scale biomass biogasification| in any climate at any reactor temperature| process heat needs are small and could be reduced to zero if metabolic heat production is included. Therefore| thermophilic digestion should be preferred to mesophilic| to the extent that the former results in higher reaction rates. Preliminary sensitivity analyses were conducted. Economies of scale are described. Increases in biomass productivity yield diminishing returns above 45-55 Mg/ha year (20-25 dry tons/ac). Distribution of fields around the conversion facility is unimportant as long as at least thirty percent of the surrounding area is planted in energy crops. Improvements in methane yield result in continuing returns| confirming the importance of this parameter. Only a minor penalty is incurred for overdesigning the retention time up to fifty percent; such overdesign would greatly enhance reliability. The research state-of-the-art is slightly above $6/GJ (MMBtu). Sale of coproducts could reduce this cost in half. The potential impact of energy crops on global climate change is quantified.
4072,1993,2,4,METHANE IN PERMAFROST - PRELIMINARY-RESULTS FROM CORING AT FAIRBANKS| ALASKA,Permafrost has been suggested as a high-latitude source of methane (a greenhouse gas) during global warming. To begin to assess the magnitude of this source| we have examined the methane content of permafrost in samples from shallow cores (maximum depth| 9.5 m) at three sites in Fairbanks| Alaska| where discontinuous permafrost is common. These cores sampled frozen loess| peat| and water (ice) below the active layer. Methane contents of permafrost range from < 0.001 to 22.2 mg/kg of sample. The highest methane content of 22.2 mg/kg was found in association with peat at one site. Silty loess had high methane contents at each site of 6.56| 4.24| and 0.152 mg/kg| respectively. Carbon isotopic compositions of the methane (deltaC-13) ranged from -70.8 to -103.9 parts per thousand| and hydrogen isotopic compositions of the methane (deltaD) from -213 to -313 parts per thousand| indicating that the methane is microbial in origin. The methane concentrations were used in a one dimensional heat conduction model to predict the amount of methane that will be released from permafrost worldwide over the next 100 years| given two climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that at least 30 years will elapse before melting permafrost releases important amounts of methane; a maximum methane release rate will be about 25 to 30 Tg/yr| assuming that methane is generally distributed in shallow permafrost as observed in our samples. 4000,1993,4,2,MODEL SIMULATIONS OF THE COMPETING CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF SO2 AND CO2,Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo| thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO2 effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Although there are large gaps in our knowledge of the atmospheric sources and sinks of sulfate aerosol| it is possible to reach some general conclusions. Using a conservative approach| results show that the cooling induced by the SO2 emission can presently counteract 50% of the CO2 greenhouse warming. Since 1980| a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model| 0.15-degrees-C| during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO2 cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5-degrees-C or 25% for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2-degrees-C or 20% for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) can be used to validate the presence of the SO2-induced cooling. Despite the fact that most of the SO2-induced cooling takes place in the Northern Hemispheric continents| the model-predicted difference in the temperature response between the NH and the SH of -0.2-degrees-C in 1980 is expected to remain about the same at least until 2060. This result is a combined effect of the much faster response of the continents than the oceans and of the larger forcing due to CO2 than due to the SO2. The climatic response to a complete filtering of SO2 from the emission products in order to reduce acid rain is also examined. The result is a warming surge of 0.4-degrees-C in the first few years after the elimination of the SO2 emission. 4063,1993,2,4,MODELING EFFECTS OF HABITAT FRAGMENTATION ON THE ABILITY OF TREES TO RESPOND TO CLIMATIC WARMING,The ability of trees to migrate in response to climatic warming was simulated under various conditions of habitat availability. The model uses Holocene tree migration rates to approximate maximum migration rates in a forested landscape. Habitat availability and local population size was varied systematically under two dispersal and colonization models. These dispersal models varied in the likelihood of long-distance dispersal events. The first model used a negative exponential function that severely limited the probability of long-distance dispersal. The results of this model indicate that migration rate could decline an order of magnitude where the habitat availability is reduced from 80 to 20% of the matrix. The second model| using an inverse power function| carried a higher probability of long-distance dispersal events. The results from this model predict relatively small declines in migration rates when habitat availability is reduced to 50% of the simulation matrix. Below 50% habitat availability| mean migration rate was similar to the negative exponential model. These results predict a failure of many trees to respond to future climatic change through range expansion. 4021,1993,4,4,MODELING SUB-ALPINE FOREST DYNAMICS AS INFLUENCED BY A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT,FORSUM| a forest succession model of the JABOWA/FORET type was applied to simulate possible impacts of environmental changes on subalpine forest ecosystems and compared with the model FORECE (Kienast| 1987). The model used is based on approaches of Botkin et al. (1972)| Shugart (1984) and Kienast (1987) and has been improved by implementing soil water movement calculations based on a user-defined one-dimensional nonhomogeneous soil profile. The influence of a possible climatic change on subalpine ecosystems was investigated for three different sites in the Grisons (Switzerland). The scenarios used are based on climate change predictions of General Circulation Models. A temperature increase of 3-degrees-C would cause important changes in species composition. Deciduous trees would invade today's subalpine belt causing a displacement of various conifers in this zone. Some coniferous species might eventually migrate into today's alpine zone which would consequently become afforested. Comparing the vegetation changes as predicted by the model FORSUM and FORECE we found that the models generate the main general patterns. However under global warming and a concurrent precipitation decrease total biomass production seems to be overestimated by FORECE. Information about seed dispersal rates (horizontal and vertical)| seed availability and soil formation processes should be implemented in these models to improve the reliability of the predictions. 3947,1993,4,4,MODELING THE PRODUCTION OF DIMETHYLSULFIDE DURING A PHYTOPLANKTON BLOOM,Dimethylsulfide (DMS) is an important sulfur-containing atmospheric trace gas of marine biogenic origin. DMS emitted from the oceans may be a precursor of tropospheric aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)| thereby affecting the Earth's radiative balance and possibly constituting a negative feedback to global warming| although this hypothesis is still somewhat controversial. The revised conceptual model of the marine pelagic food web gives a central role to planktonic bacteria. Recent experiments have shown that consumption of dissolved DMS by microbial metabolism may be more important than atmospheric exchange in controlling its concentration in surface waters and hence its ventilation to the atmosphere. In this paper we investigate the effect of the marine food web on cycling of dissolved DMS in surface waters during a phytoplankton bloom episode. A nitrogen-based flow network simulation model has been used to analyze the relative importance of the various biological and chemical processes involved. The model predictions suggest that the concentration of DMS in marine surface waters is indeed governed by bacterial metabolism. Environmental factors that affect the bacterial compartment are thus likely to have a relatively large influence on dissolved DMS concentrations. The ecological succession is particularly sensitive to the ratio of phytoplankton to bacterial nutrient uptake rates as well the interaction between herbivore food chain and the microbial loop. Importantly for the design of field studies| the model predicts that peak DMS concentrations are achieved during the decline of the phytoplankton bloom with a typical time lag between peak DMS and peak phytoplankton biomass of 1 to 2 days. Significantly| the model predicts a relatively high DMS concentration persisting after the phytoplankton bloom due to excretion from large protozoa and zooplankton| which may be an additional ''planation for the lack of correlation between DMS and chlorophyll a field measurements. Comparison of the model predictions has been made with tank algal bloom experiments. 4093,1993,4,4,MOS-1/MOS-1B/ERS-1/JERS-1 DATA SETS OF SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND POLAR ICE EXTENT FOR ISY,Human beings face serious earth environment problems. In order to resolve such problems| it is necessary to observe the earth and produce several data sets using satellite and auxiliary data. As a part of ISY and verification activity| NASDA has developed various data sets using MOS-1/MOS-1b/ERS-1/JERS-1 data particularly for sea surface temperature and polar ice extent which are indicators of global warming. In this gaper| outline of these data sets for sea surface temperature and polar ice extent is presented. 4023,1993,3,3,MULTICRITERIA GENERATION-EXPANSION PLANNING WITH GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS,This paper discusses the multicriteria capacity-mix problem of electric utilities. Traditional least-cost generation-expansion planning has become inadequate due to the prevailing multiple| conflicting objectives such as cost| environmental degradation| and nuclear hazards. This particularly true with emerging concerns over carbon dioxide emissions that are believed to contribute to global warming. In this paper we present the preference-order dynamic programming approach| so that this new logic can be implemented with the already available dynamic-programming-based capacity-expansion planning tool| called Wien Automatic System Planning Package (WASP). Through our case study| we note the importance of considering global warming as well as nuclear hazards. We also note that substituting plants that use cleaner fuels such as natural gas for those that use carbon-intensive fuels such as coal is more effective in controlling carbon dioxide emissions. This substitution method is also more effective than replacing these plants with carbon dioxide-free nuclear units. 4089,1993,3,3,NEW POWER-PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES - VARIOUS OPTIONS FOR BIOMASS AND COGENERATION,Bioenergy will be the most significant renewable energy source in the next few decades until solar- or wind-power production offers an economically attractive large-scale alternative. Structural changes are required in power production in the near future owing to concern for global warming. Separate power production from fossil fuels should be replaced as extensively as possible by a new highly efficient power-generation structure. In Scandinavia| as well as to some extent elsewhere in Europe| combined heat and power production (CHP) is widely used and is an efficient way to reduce CO2 emissions. In CHP| the additional power capacity can be produced by using IGCC and diesel techniques| and a potentially double amount of electricity is obtained with a constant hear load The Finnish JALO research programme focuses on these techniques in a wide spectrum of the thermochemical conversion programme. Basic and applied research as well as pilot activities has been carried out in research organizations and in industry in Finland. A sum of about ECU 9 million has been invested in the programme over the past five years. The first pilot and demonstration plants with solid-biomass IGCC technology will be put into operation by private enterprises in 1993. If the price of biofuels is competitive| these new technologies will probably be commercialized by the end of the 1990s. International co-operation within ECE JOULE and IEA has played an important role in the JALO programme. 2694,1993,4,4,NITROGEN BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLING IN THE NORTHWESTERN INDIAN-OCEAN,The vertical distribution and fine scale structure of nitrate (NO3)| nitrite (NO2)| nitrous oxide (N2O)| phosphate (PO4)| oxygen (02) and chlorophyll a (chl a) were determined in the North Western Indian Ocean (NWIO) along a meridional section (67-degrees-E) from the Equator to the Gulf of Oman using an Autoanalyser for micromolar levels of nutrients| and chemiluminescence and gas chromatographic methods for nanomolar levels of NO3 and NO2 and N2O respectively. Three biogeochemically contrasting regimes were investigated: (1) the highly oligotrophic nutrient-depleted subtropical gyre; (2) the monsoonal upwelling of nutrient-rich intermediate waters off the southeastern Arabian Coast; and (3) the denitrifying 02-depleted zone (ODZ; ca 150-1200 m depth) in the Arabian Sea. Concentrations of NO3 and NO2 were severely depleted in surface oligotrophic waters from the equator (average 43 and 3.6 nM respectively) to the subtropical gyre (12-15-degrees-N; average 13.3 and 2.0 nM respectively) with similar levels in the more stratified Gulf of Oman. Upwelling waters off Southern Arabia had three orders of magnitude higher NO3 levels| and throughout the NWIO| the calculated NO3-fuelled primary production appeared to be regulated by NO3 concentration. Existing Redfield DELTAO2/DELTANO3 regeneration ratios (=9. 1) previously derived for the deep Indian Ocean were confirmed (=9.35) within the oxic upper layers of the NWIO. The ''NO''-potential temperature relationship (BROECKER| 1974| Earth and Planetary Science Letters| 23| 100-107) needed for the derivation of expected NO3 and NO3-deficits within the denitrifying ODZ were refined using an isopycnal| binary mixing model along the sigma(theta) = 26.6%. density layer to take into account the inflowing contribution of NO3-depleted Persian Gulf Water. Vertically integrated NO3-deficits increased northwards from 0.8 mol NO3-N m-2 at Sta. 2 (04-degrees-N)| up to 6.49 mol NO3-N m-2 at Sta. 9| at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman| then decreased to 4. 10 moles NO3 -N m-2 toward Sta. 11| near the Straits of Hormuz. When averaged for the denitrification area of the Arabian Sea| this corresponds to a deficit of 118 Tg NO3-N. Adopting a recent Freon-11 based estimate of water residence time of 10 years (OLSON et al.| 1993| Deep-Sea Research II| 40| 673-685) for the O2-depleted layer| we calculate an annual net denitrification flux of 11.9 Tg N to the atmosphere or approximately 10% of the global water column denitrification rates. Supersaturated N2O concentrations were found in both surface oxic and upwelling waters (up to 246%) and peaked at the base of the ODZ (up to 1264%) in the northern Arabian Sea. Both nitrification in oxic waters and denitrification in hypoxic layers can be invoked as sources of N2O. The inventory of excess N2O amounted to 2.55 +/- 1.3 Tg N2O-N| corresponding to annual production of 0.26 +/- 0.13 Tg from denitrification. This is comparable to earlier (LAW and OWENS| 1990| Nature| 346| 826-828) estimates of the ventilation flux of N2O (0.22-0.39 Tg yr-1) from the upwelling region of the Arabian Sea. The decadal response times for circulation| deoxygenation| denitrification and ventilation of the ODZ-derived N2O and CO2 greenhouse gases and their monsoonal coupling implies the Arabian Sea is a sensitive oceanic recorder of global climate change.
2672,1993,4,4,NUMERICAL-MODELS OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE,Numerical weather prediction has provided routine forecasts of global weather for more than thirty years. During that period numerical models have evolved from the use of low resolution balance equations to high resolution fluid dynamics equations with added terms to describe physical processes such as radiative heating and latent heat release. Both grid-point and spectral transform methods have been used. Forecasts require an initial state| and much effort has gone into data assimilation and initialization consistent with the nonlinear dynamics of the models. As is well known| the chaotic atmosphere is of limited predictability| and deterministic forecasts axe only good for about a week. The climate is defined by the statistical properties of the weather| and these change far more slowly. There is much current interest in the response of climate to human influences. Global climate change studies are largely based on weather models of lower resolution that are run for much longer times and averaged. But the search continues for a true climate model that deals directly with slowly evolving statistics.
3951,1993,2,4,OBJECTIVE IDENTIFICATION OF CYCLONES IN GCM SIMULATIONS,An objective routine for identifying individual cyclones has been developed. The procedure was designed with the aim to keep the input expenditure low: The method ensures a complete collection of cyclones and an exclusion of short time fluctuations attributed to numerical effects. The cyclones are identified as relative minima of the geopotential height field in 1000 hPa. The initial stages of the cyclones are found by locating relative maxima in the 850-hPa vorticity field. Further on the temporal development of the extrema is taken into consideration. An individual cyclone is regarded only if it exists for at least 24 h and if it attains a mature stage at least once| where a certain margin of the geopotential gradient to the surroundings is exceeded. The identification routine is applied to simulations with the Hamburg general circulation model ECHAM in T21 resolution. Also| cyclone tracks based on ECMWF analyses are evaluated| to which the model results are compared. The effect of different climate conditions| for example| global warming| on cyclone frequency and track location is investigated. It is found that a warmer SST distribution leads to a slight reduction of cyclone frequency in the Southern Hemisphere in fall (March| April| May) and winter (June| July| August); elsewhere the differences are not significant. 3961,1993,4,3,ON THE COLD START PROBLEM IN TRANSIENT SIMULATIONS WITH COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN MODELS,Finite computer resources force compromises in the design of transient numerical experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models which| in the case of global warming simulations| normally preclude a full integration from the undisturbed pre-industrial state. The start of the integration at a later time from a climate state which| in contrast to the true climate| is initially in equilibrium then induces a cold start error. Using linear response theory a general expression for the cold start error is derived. The theory is applied to the Hamburg CO2 scenario simulations. An attempt to estimate the global-mean-temperature response function of the coupled model from the response of the model to a CO2 doubling was unsuccessful because of the non-linearity of the system. However| an alternative derivation| based on the transient simulation itself| yielded a cold start error which explained the initial retardation of the Hamburg global warming curve relative to the IPCC results obtained with a simple box-diffusion-upwelling model. In the case of the sea level the behaviour of the model is apparently more linear. The cold start error estimations based on a CO2 doubling experiment and on an experiment with gradually increasing CO2 (scenario A) are very similar and explain about two thirds of the coupled model retardation relative to the IPCC results. 4002,1993,3,3,OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPING SPECIALTY CHEMICALS AND ADVANCED MATERIALS FROM COALS,The main objective of this paper is to explore the potentials and possible ways to develop high-value chemicals and materials from coals and coal liquids. Recently it has become clear that more extensive use of fossil fuels| especially coal| may be constrained not only by economics| but also by environmental considerations such as SO(x) and NO(x) emissions and global warming. Therefore| new concepts are required| and significant advances are essential for the effective utilization of coals in the next century. Both from economic and environmental viewpoints| developing high-value chemicals and materials from coals and coal liquids should lead to more efficient and environmentally safe utilization of the valuable carbonaceous resources. It is important to explore the routes and methods for developing specialty chemicals| which are difficult to obtain or not readily available from petroleum| advanced polymeric engineering materials| and high-performance carbon materials. Recent years have seen significant progress in the development and application of new| industrially important aromatic engineering plastics| thermoplastic materials| liquid crystalline polymers| and membrane materials. Many of the monomers for these materials can be prepared from one- to four-ring aromatics such as alkylated benzenes| naphthalene| biphenyl| anthracene| phenanthrene| pyrene| phenol| and carbazole. Especially important are 2|6-dialkylnaphthalenes| 4|4'-dialkylbiphenyls| and 1|4-dialkylbenzenes. The large-volume application of aromatic high-performance polymers depends on lowering their cost| which in turn is largely determined by the cost of the aromatic monomers. By developing the critical aromatic chemicals from coals| coal-to-chemicals research could contribute significantly to high-technology development. Potential large-volume markets for materials from coal can be stimulated by developing high-performance carbon materials such as carbon fibers and graphites| and by developing ways to make advanced adsorbents for environmental applications such as air and water purification. 3991,1993,5,3,PALEOATMOSPHERIC CONSEQUENCES OF CO2 RELEASED DURING EARLY CENOZOIC REGIONAL METAMORPHISM IN THE TETHYAN OROGEN,The Eocene was the warmest epoch of the Cenozoic| with published estimates of Eocene atmospheric CO2 content ranging from two to six times the current value. Calculations of CO2 consumption by silicate weathering show that CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere of ca. 10(18)/Myr could account for inferred Paleocene/Eocene atmospheric CO2 contents| and the resulting greenhouse effect would have contributed to Eocene warmth. Extensive portions of the Tethyan orogen underwent regional metamorphism culminating in the Eocene. Prograde metamorphism may have been contemporaneous with the Late Paleocene global warming. We calculated the amount of metamorphic CO2 produced at depth in the Himalayan orogen with data on the timing of the India/Asia collision| duration of prograde regional metamorphism| and proportions and bulk compositions of metamorphic CO2 source rocks. If CO2 was generated at a constant rate over a 10 Myr period of prograde metamorphism in the Himalayan orogen| we estimate that ca. 10(18)-10(19) moles/Myr of metamorphic CO2 were produced al depth. Significant expulsion of metamorphic CO2 to the atmosphere may have occurred by focused fluid flow along shear zones such as the extensive Main Central Thrust in the Himalayan orogen. An additional ca. 10(18)/Myr could have been contributed by Eocene regional metamorphism in the Mediterranean Tethys (i.e.| from the Alps to Turkey). The extensive metamorphism associated with the India/Asia collision| and the closing of Tethys| may have contributed to CO2-greenhouse warming in the early to mid Cenozoic. 3988,1993,5,3,PALEOECOLOGY| PAST CLIMATE SYSTEMS| AND C3/C4PHOTOSYNTHESIS,The geologic record shows unequivocally that the present world is unusually cold; the so called 'greenhouse' condition has been normal for planet Earth for the past 500 million years. Continental positions| orbital parameters| and atmospheric composition strongly influence global climate on timescales ranging from 10(8) to 10(2) years. Atmospheric CO2 is an important contributing factor in determining average global temperature| and is particularly important in influencing changes over shorter timescales (say < 10(5) years). Carbon sequestering on land has varied substantially over the past 500 million years and may be correlated with changing climate. Most terrestrial carbon sequestering operates on biological timescales (<10(5) years) rather than geological timescales (>10(5) years). Terrestrial carbon sequestering is strongly influenced by the biology of the organisms involved and it has been shown that terrestrial carbon sequestering is greater in ever-wet conditions. The distribution of the sites of greatest carbon sequestering switches from low latitudes during icehouse times to higher latitudes| >40-degrees| during greenhouse times| except maritime sites. Evolutionary factors| e.g. competition| and climate change have led to major ecosystem restructuring during the past 500 million years. Pre-change biodiversity is therefore critical in determining the nature and rate of restructuring particularly with respect to plants which are the only group of organisms capable of carbon sequestering. There exists a number of uncertainties as well as probabilities involved in estimating sequestering ratios and climate changes; Estimates of past carbon sequestering are likely to be too low because dispersed fossil organic matter is inadequately inventoried. Numerical climate model results are unreliable unless evaluated against fossil and sediment data. Terrestrial carbon sequestering is unlikely to dominate tectonic controls but as it operates on a shorter time scale it has a strong short term effect and could well tip the climate balance in critical situations. Most extant land plants have a C3 photosynthetic pathway. However| under conditions where photorespiration can reduce photosynthetic efficiency| warmth and high O2 concentrations| many unrelated plants have independently evolved C4 pathways. C4 plants have different water relations and competitive characteristics to C3 plants and clearly ecosystem structure and carbon sequestering are likely to change with global warming. By studying the different isotopic signature bequeathed by these systems the fossil record can provide critical data on the dynamics of plants with these systems under changing climatic conditions: data that again are essential for effective ecosystem management strategies. 2675,1993,5,3,PALEOZOIC ATMOSPHERIC CO2 - IMPORTANCE OF SOLAR-RADIATION AND PLANT EVOLUTION,Changes in solar radiation| as it affects the rate of weathering of silicates on the continents| and other changes involving weathering and the degassing of carbon dioxide (CO2) have been included in a long-term carbon-cycle model. These additions to the model show that the major controls on CO2 concentrations during the Paleozoic era were solar and biological| and not tectonic| in origin. The model predictions agree with independent estimates of a large mid-Paleozoic (400 to 320 million years ago) drop in CO2 concentrations| which led to large-scale glaciation. This agreement indicates that variations in the atmospheric greenhouse effect were important in global climate change during the distant geologic past.
4004,1993,5,4,PLUVIAL CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN SAHARA FOLLOWING THE PENULTIMATE DEGLACIATION - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS WITH GLOBAL WARMING,During the transition from the penultimate glacial to the last interglacial period (Isotope Stages 6-5e or Terminal II)| large freshwater lakes abruptly infilled sandy depressions in arid regions of the eastern Sahara. Geochemical and mineralogical studies of samples from lacustrine sequences in the Western Desert of southern Egypt indicate: (1) The sediments are chalk composed of authigenic chemical precipitates| predominantly low-Mg calcite| with carbonate contents averaging about 80%. The low dilution of the chemical precipitate by detrital input implies that physical erosion and transport of detrital grains were minimized by extensive vegetation cover in the catchment area. The fauna and flora associated with the lake deposits and Middle Paleolithic occupation sites on the paleo-shorelines attest to a more amenable environment. (2) Vastly different rainfall or atmospheric circulation patterns than at present must have existed based on consistently negative deltaO-18PDB values for the chalk| as low as -9.5 parts per thousand| which would require precipitation from lake waters significantly more depleted in O-18 than the modern local spring water (deltaO-18SMOW= -1.8 parts per thousand). (3) The lakes were stable perennial water bodies with relatively long residence times sufficient to produce isotopic covariant signals in the chalks. Apparently| the lakes disappeared as abruptly as they appeared without going through a terminal phase of evaporative enrichment. Extremely arid conditions again prevailed. During the transition from the last glacial to the present interglacial (Terminal 1)| a similar change from arid to pluvial conditions occurred. Thus| it is proposed that| during transitions from glacial to interglacial climates| rapid global warming can lead to a temporary alteration of atmospheric circulation with an intensification of the southwest monsoons| bringing large quantities of isotopically light moisture to the Eastern Sahara. 4045,1993,3,3,POLICY ANALYSIS OF THE GREENHOUSE-EFFECT - AN APPLICATION OF THE PAGE MODEL,In this paper we introduce a comprehensive model for policy analysis of the greenhouse effect (PAGE). We apply the PAGE model to assess the merits of policies to prevent global warming (by controlling the emissions of greenhouse gases)| and policies to adapt to any global warming that occurs. The results confirm that it is difficult to overcome the problem of global warming by taking preventive action alone. The argument for introducing an aggressive adaptive policy is very strong. We calculate the valuation that would have to be placed upon non-economic environmental and social impacts| for a combined strategy of preventive and adaptive policies to be considered a worthwhile option| both for individual regions and for the world as a whole. We also show that uncertainties in all four groups of inputs to the model (scientific| costs of control| costs of adaptation and valuation of impacts) have a great influence on the costs and im acts of the combined strategy. 3963,1993,3,4,POLYURETHANES AND THE ENVIRONMENT,Recent developments in polyurethane foams show that CFCs can be phased out almost completely| now. In applications where ozone-depleting CFCs served solely to expand the reaction mix| they have long since been replaced. And alternative products are now available for use in insulating foams| where CFC gas is retained in the cells to create the thermal insulation. Polyurethanes have long been recognised as highly effective| energy-saving insulants in the building industry and in technical insulation. They also help to reduce weight and material usage in automotive construction. In this way they play an important part in conserving scarce resources and reducing emissions| Polyurethanes are chemically crosslinked polymers which| unlike thermoplastics| cannot simply be melted down for reuse at the end of their first useful life. Various technologies for recycling polyurethanes are available| including material and chemical recycling and recovery of the energy content The most suitable method has to be determined in each individual case. 2662,1993,3,3,POOLS AND FLUXES OF BIOGENIC CARBON IN THE FORMER SOVIET-UNION,The Former Soviet Union (FSU) was the largest country in the world. It occupied one-sixth of the land surface of the Earth. An understanding of the pools and fluxes of biogenic C in the FSU is essential to the development of international strategies aimed at mitigation of the negative impacts of global climate change. The territory of the FSU is represented by a variety of climate conditions. The major part of the FSU territory is in the boreal and temperate climatic zones. The climate in the FSU changes from arctic and subarctic in the North to subtropical and desert in the South. From west to east| the climate makes a transition from maritime to continental to monsoon. The vegetation of the FSU includes the following principal types: forest| woodland| shrubland| grassland| tundra| desert| peatlands and cultivated land. Arctic deserts and tundra formations are found in the northern part of the FSU; deserts and semi-deserts are found in the southern part. A framework was created to assess pools and fluxes of biogenic C in the FSU. Under the framework spatially distributed data were analyzed with a geographic information system to isolate ecoregions. The soil-vegetation complexes for the ecoregions were linked to FSU data bases of soil and vegetation C pools and fluxes. The C budget for an ecoregion was established by multiplying the area of the ecoregion by the unit area C content(s) or rate(s) associated with the soil-vegetation complex for the ecoregion. The C pools and fluxes for all the ecoregions were summed to arrive at an initial estimate of the pools and fluxes of biogenic C for 95% of the territory of the FSU. Based on the framework| net primary productivity (NPP) for the FSU was estimated at 6.17 +/- 1.65 Gt C yr-1| the vegetation C pool (live plant mass and coarse woody debris) at 118.1 +/- 28.5 Gt C| the litter C pool at 18.9 +/- 4.4 Gt C| and total soil C pool at 404.0 +/- 38.0 Gt C. The phytomass pool of the FSU was 16% of the global biomass pool. The soil and litter pools of the FSU were 20 and 23% of the global soil and detritus pools| respectively. The NPP of the FSU was 10% of the global NPP. The phytomass| soil and litter densities of the FSU were greater than the world average. The productivity of terrestrial ecosystems in the FSU was slightly lower than the world average.
3949,1993,2,4,POSTFIRE VEGETATION RECOVERY AND TREE ESTABLISHMENT AT THE ARCTIC TREELINE - CLIMATE-CHANGE VEGETATION-RESPONSE HYPOTHESES,1 A fire of unusually great severity (deep burning) burned across the forest-tundra ecotone near Inuvik| Northwest Territories from August 8 to 18| 1968. 2 Burned-unburned paired study sites around the fire perimeter| which had been established in both tundra and forest-tundra in 1973 were relocated in 1990. These showed that total vascular plant cover had reached prefire levels after 22 years| that tall shrubs had become dominant in the tundra and that biomass was now sufficient to support another fire. Cryptogams showed minimum recovery between the two studies. 3 In previously treed areas postfire densities of Picea mariana and Picea glauca were much lower than before. Betula papyrifera and Populus balsamifera| however| showed an increase in density and had extended their range into previously treeless areas. 4 The results obtained have implications for vegetation changes in the Circumpolar North related to global warming. It is predicted that deciduous tree species with long distance seed dispersal mechanisms will increase in abundance and will invade the tundra in a stepwise fashion after each fire. This will be most noticeable near northward flowing rivers because these valleys provide the habitat for outlier tree populations and are therefore a major source of propagules. 3946,1993,3,4,POTENTIAL CHLOROFLUOROCARBON REPLACEMENTS - OH REACTION-RATE CONSTANTS BETWEEN 250 AND 315-K AND INFRARED-ABSORPTION SPECTRA,We measured the rate constant for reactions of the OH radical with several potential chlorofluorocarbon replacements over the temperature range 251-314 K using laser photolysis laser-induced fluorescence techniques. The compounds studied and Arrhenius parameters determined from fits to the measured rate constants are as follows: CHF2OCHF2 (E 134)| k(T) = (5.4 +/- 3.5) x 10(-13) cm3 s-1 exp [(-3.1 +/- 0.4 kcal mol-1)/RT]; CF3CH2CF3 (FC 236fa)| k(T) = (2.0 +/- 1.0) X 10(-14) CM3 S-1 exp [(-1.8 +/- 0.3 kcal mol-1)/RT]; CF3CHFCH2F2 (FC 236ea)| k(T) = (2.0 +/- 0.9) X 10(-13) CM3 S-1 exp [(-2.0 +/- 0.3 kcal mol-1)/RT]; and CF3CF2CH2F (FC 236cb)| k(T) = (2.6 +/- 1.6) X 10(-13) cm3 S-1 exp [(-2.2 +/- 0.4 kcal mol-1)/RT]. The measured activation energies (2-3 kcal mol-1) are consistent with a mechanism of H atom abstraction. The tropospheric lifetimes| estimated from the measured OH reaction rates| and measured integrated infrared absorption cross sections over the range 770 to 1430 cm-1 suggest that E 134 and FC 236fa may have significant global warming potential. while FC 236ea and FC 236cb do not. 4027,1993,3,3,POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS OF INTELLIGENT VEHICLE HIGHWAY SYSTEMS (IVHS) TO REDUCING TRANPORTATIONS GREENHOUSE GAS-PRODUCTION,The road transportation system (including automobiles| buses and trucks) has not yet made significant use of modern electronics technologies to enhance system operations. Intelligent vehicle/highway systems (IVHS) is the label currently applied to the nascent attempts to use advanced technologies to enable travelers| vehicles and the roadway infrastructure to function as an integrated system. IVHS technologies influence both the supply and demand sides of transportation| to promote enhanced operational efficiency and reductions in vehicle miles traveled. These changes can reduce the contribution of the transportation sector to global warming in ways that are explained qualitatively in the paper. Quantitative evaluation of the global-warming implications of IVHS must follow from further research on the technology and travelers' responses to it| and from development of the policy framework for IVHS implementation. 2678,1993,2,3,POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON A SEMI-PERMANENT PRAIRIE WETLAND,We assessed the potential effects of a greenhouse gas-induced global climate change on the hydrology and vegetation of a semi-permanent prairie wetland using a spatially-defined| rule-based simulation model. An 11-yr simulation was run using current versus enhanced greenhouse gas climates. Projections of climatic change were from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model. Simulations were also run using a range of temperature (+2 and +4-degrees-C) and precipitation change values (-20| -10| 0| +10| +20%) to determine the responsiveness of wetland vegetation and hydrology to a variety of climate scenarios. Maximum water depths were significantly less under the enhanced greenhouse gas scenario than under the current climate. The wetland dried in most years with increased temperature and changes in precipitation. Simulations also revealed a significant change in the vegetation| from a nearly balanced emergent cover to open water ratio to a completely closed basin with no open water areas. Simulations over a range of climate change scenarios showed that precipitation changes (particularly increases) had a greater impact on water levels and cover ratios when the temperature increase was moderate (+2-degrees-C). These potential changes in wetland hydrology and vegetation could result in a dramatic decline in the quality of habitat for breeding birds| particularly water-fowl. Continued research on climate and wetland modeling is needed.
3987,1993,3,2,POTENTIAL LIMITS OF HUMAN DOMINATED FOSSIL ENERGY-BASED GLOBAL ECOSYSTEMS,Presently atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) content is rising in a sustained manner faster than at any time in the recent past (150|000 years) for which we have well documented information Carbon dioxide is also rising even faster than at any time in the past 500 million years. The present sharp rise in CO2| driven mainly by the comparatively rapid combustion of fossil carbon representing the energy deposits arising from slow accumulation from the ecosystems of bygone ages| is expected to have profound effects on the present and future global climate as well as on natural ecosystems| their associated biodiversity and current patterns of agricultural production. However| there exists an even more serious facet to the problem posed by the necessity to control increasing CO2 and associated global warming and that is the loss of biodiversity (ecosystems| habitats| and species)| resulting from the fact that climatic change and biological diversity are intimately inter-linked. Plants are the only organisms capable of removing significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. It is now certain that natural responses for sequestering carbon have been outstripped| therefore humankind will be forced to accelerate the biosphere adjustment processes| i.e. massive reforestation programs and ecosystem engineering in order to buffer atmospheric CO2. A significant part of this atmospheric carbon was| until recently| sequestered into oil and coal by biological and geological action. Currently| mainly due to industrialization| man is pumping sequestered carbon back into the atmosphere at a rate faster than the present distribution of ecosystems| including agricultural crops| can absorb and is therefor largely responsible for the ''greenhouse effect''. Moreover| most prehistoric global ecological changes occurred slowly| probably over millions of years and vegetation had sufficient time to either move or adapt. Present changes are expected to include an increase in the average temperature (which will not necessarily be evenly distributed)| a subsequent rise of sea level and the redistribution of precipitation. These changes will occur in less than the lifetime of an average tree. It is probable that many species will not have the necessary time to adjust and will perish as their habitats disappear and vegetation belts change. Over 50% of the original forest biomass covering the globe before the advent of modern civilization has already been removed and replaced by human habitats and associated agricultural systems. Even simple solutions to the problem of sequestering carbon through traditional mono-culture plantation developments are no longer tenable because of the excessive geographical areas that would be involved. 4034,1993,2,3,PREDICTING BIOLOGICAL RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING - A LABORATORY ACTIVITY TO PROMOTE DISCUSSION,A measured rise in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere is expected to have a significant impact on the Earth's climate and biota. Within the next 50 years the average global temperatureis predicted to rise from 0.80F to 2.50F(1.5Cto 4.5C)(Jager 1988;Houghton et al. 1990 as cited by Ojimaet al. 1991) due to a phenomenon called the "greenhouse effect." That is| while CO2 and other atmo- spheric gases readily permit shorter| solar wavelengths to penetrate to the Earth| they trap longer| re-radiated wavelengths from the Earth| causing atmospherictemperatureto rise. Presently| teams of scientists are working on complicated computer models to predict changes in global temperature and precipitation (Bolin et al. 1986; Ojimaet al. 1991). Articles discussing the impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on global and regional scales are frequent in the popular press (Nash 1987; Pain 1988; Revkin 1988; Adler & Hager 1988).
3990,1993,2,3,PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS BY CHARBON CYCLE MODEL,The effect of climate change by the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide on terrestrial ecosystems has attracted much attention. For estimating these effects quantitatively| model that expresses the global carbon cycle is needed. We constructed models a express vegetation growth and carbon cycle in soil. In this report| by using these two models| we estimated the carbon cycle between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere and predicted the effects on the global carbon cycle. By this model we can predict that terrestrial ecosystems emit carbon dioxide to the atmosphere with increase of temperature. 2674,1993,2,3,PROJECTED GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT ON WATER TEMPERATURES IN 5 NORTH CENTRAL UNITED-STATES STREAMS,The effect of projected global climate change due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 on water temperatures in five streams in Minnesota was estimated using a deterministic heat transport model. The model calculates heat exchange between the atmosphere and the water and is driven by climate parameters and stream hydrologic parameters. The model is most sensitive to air temperature and solar radiation. The model was calibrated against detailed measurements to account for seasonally variable shading and wind sheltering. Using climate projections from the GISS| GFDL and OSU GCMs as input; stream temperature simulations predict a warming of freely flowing river reaches by 2.4-degrees-C to 4.7-degrees-C when atmospheric CO2 doubles. In small shaded streams water temperatures are predicted to rise by an additional 6-degrees-C in summer if trees along stream banks should be lost due to climate change or other human activities (e.g. logging). These projected water temperature changes have significant consequences for survival and growth of fishes. Simulation with the complete heat budget equations were also used to examine simplified water temperature/air temperature correlations.
3994,1993,2,4,RAIN-FOREST TREES AS A NEW CROP FOR AUSTRALIA,An analysis has been carried out of the prospects of using lesser known rainforest trees as new crops| mainly for high quality cabinetwood production. The economic returns of 43 rainforest trees were assessed using expert opinion and the Delphi method to provide an evaluation and ranking of the most valuable species. Cuban mahogany (Swietenia mahogeni)| American mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla)| West Indian cedar (Cedrela odorata)| teak (Tectona grandis)| and hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii) were identified by a simple model as the most valuable tree species. Sensitivity analyses were carried out on the effect of both increased long term timber prices and changes in tree productivity on financial returns. Further research on plantation development and an extensive literature review of the top ten species is also needed. Global warming scenarios indicate that the relative viability of plantations of tropical rainforest species in northern Australia will improve as a result of smaller temperature increases and higher rainfall than in southern Australia. Conditions are now more economically favourable for commercial tree planting than in the past and could lead to the future involvement of financial organizations and the payment of annuities to owners of tree farms. An ultimate aim is the development of markets in tree farms or plantations similar to those in agricultural enterprizes generally. 3975,1993,4,2,RATE COEFFICIENTS FOR REACTIONS OF SEVERAL HYDROFLUOROCARBONS WITH OH AND O((1)D) AND THEIR ATMOSPHERIC LIFETIMES,The rate coefficients for the reaction of OH with CH3F| CHF3| C2H5F| C4H2F8| and C5H2F10 were measured at temperatures between 232 and 378 K using the pulsed laser photolysis-laser-induced fluorescence technique. The rate coefficients for the reaction of O(1D) with the above molecules and CH2F2 were measured at room temperature using time-resolved vacuum-UV atomic resonance fluorescence detection of O(3P). The atmospheric lifetimes needed for the evaluation of global warming potentials were calculated for all six molecules using a one-dimensional atmospheric model using the kinetic data obtained in the present study. 4019,1993,2,4,RECENT WARMING - ICE CORE EVIDENCE FROM TROPICAL ICE CORES WITH EMPHASIS ON CENTRAL-ASIA,Ice cores from the tropics and subtropics| in conjunction with those from the polar regions| provide a multifaceted record (dust| chemistry| stable isotopes| accumulation) of environmental changes which can be viewed both spatially and temporally. This paper emphasizes the oxygen isotopic record (deltaO-18) preserved in cores from the poles to the tropics and assesses the evidence for global warming in the last 50-100 years. From north to south these records include: Camp Century| Greenland| Dunde and Guliya Ice Caps| China| Gregoriev Ice Cap| Kirghizia (formerly part of USSR)| Quelccaya Ice Cap| Peru and Siple Station and South Pole| Antarctica. The central Asian records along with that from Quelccaya provide strong evidence of recent and rapid warming in the tropics and subtropics| For the Dunde Ice Cap| where a long paleoclimatic record is available| the warming in this century appears to be unprecedented in the Holocene. These tropical and subtropical records contrast sharply with those from polar cores which show little evidence of a recent warming. These data suggest that either the recent warming is a middle and lower latitude phenomenon or that these high altitude tropical and subtropical glaciers may be more sensitive to climate changes than the massive polar ice sheets. Regardless| the current rapid disintegration of many tropical and subtropical glaciers may result in the permanent loss of numerous unique archives. 3986,1993,3,3,REDUCING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 USING BIOMASS ENERGY AND PHOTOBIOLOGY,Biological systems are among the most promising| environmentally sustainable alternatives for reducing atmospheric CO2 levels. Biomass can act as a reservoir of carbon| or as a direct substitute for fossil fuels with no net contribution to atmospheric CO2 if produced and used sustainably. We examine the role of biomass in mitigating global warming and contributing to the development of future energy strategies. we conclude that the use of biomass for fossil fuel substitution would be far more effective| in reducing atmospheric CO2 than to simply sequester CO2 in forests in most circumstances. Furthermore| since bioenergy could be less costly -than coal and petroleum| this strategy has an economic advantage over many of the carbon mitigation options. Photobiology and photochemistry are possible future routes for CO2 reduction. The use of microalgae in photobioreactors is feasible for CO2 removal as has been demonstrated in a number of laboratories. Energy balances with such systems need to be optimised since parameters such as light (actual and artificial) and waste heat play crucial roles. 2700,1993,4,4,RESPONSE OF THE TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN PERTURBATION,Despite 20 years of intensive effort to understand the global carbon cycle| the budget for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is unbalanced. To explain why atmospheric CO2 is not increasing as rapidly as it should be| various workers have suggested that land vegetation acts as a sink for carbon dioxide. Here| I examine various possibilities and find that the evidence for a sink of sufficient magnitude on land is poor. Moreover| it is unlikely that the land vegetation will act as a sink in the postulated warmer global climates of the future. In response to rapid human population growth| destruction of natural ecosystems in the tropics remains a large net source of CO2 for the atmosphere| which is only partially compensated by the potential for carbon storage in temperate and boreal regions. Direct and inadvertent human effects on land vegetation might increase the magnitude of regional CO2 storage on land| but they are unlikely to play a significant role in moderating the potential rate of greenhouse warming in the future.
4078,1993,3,3,RESPONSE OF THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF LAKE-ONTARIO TO DEEP COOLING WATER WITHDRAWALS AND TO GLOBAL WARMING,It has been proposed to cool buildings in downtown Toronto using cold| deep water withdrawn from Lake Ontario. 50 m3 s-1 of sub-thermocline water would be withdrawn from a depth of 80 m at a temperature close to 4-degrees-C| distributed to chillers throughout the city| and discharged on the surface in the nearshore zone at a temperature of 12-degrees-C Compared with electrically-powered chillers| the Deep Lake Water Cooling (DLWC) scheme is thermodynamically elegant and environmentally beneficial in many ways. Using a one-dimensional thermodynamic model of Lake Ontario| this paper assesses the physical impact of the DLWC scheme on the whole lake under present and future conditions. We conclude that the lake could presently absorb the heat from the proposed Toronto installation and 20 others like it without major lake-wide physical changes. At a conservative estimate of 1000 m3 s-1 with an 8-degrees-C temperature differential| the DLWC scheme would reject approximately 33.5 GW of ''waste heat'' to Lake Ontario. Under our best estimate of a 2 x CO2 climate scenario| the deep waters could be 2-3-degrees-C warmer than they are now. The DLWC system would be less efficient| but the lake would retain a similar overall cooling capacity. Neither biological consequences nor the local physical impact of the discharge of heated subsurface water from the DLWC system are addressed in this study. 2680,1993,4,3,SATELLITE OBSERVATION OF LAKE ICE AS A CLIMATE INDICATOR - INITIAL RESULTS FROM STATEWIDE MONITORING IN WISCONSIN,The research reported herein focused on the general hypothesis that satellite remote sensing of large-area| long-term trends in lake ice phenology (formation and breakup) is a robust| integrated measure of regional and global climate change. To validate this hypothesis| we explored the use of data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to discriminate the presence and extent of lake ice during the winter of 1990-1991 on the 45 lakes and reservoirs in Wisconsin with a surface area greater than 1|000 hectares. Our results suggest both the feasibility of using the AVHRR to determine the date of lake ice breakup as well as the strong correlation (R = -0.87) of the date so derived with local surface-based temperature measurements. These results suggest the potential of using current and archival satellite data to monitor changes in the date of lake ice breakup as a means of detecting regional ''signals'' of greenhouse warming.
4030,1993,2,3,SEA-LEVEL RISE - DESTRUCTION OF THREATENED AND ENDANGERED SPECIES HABITAT IN SOUTH-CAROLINA,Concern for the environment has increased over the past century| and the US Congress has responded to this concern by passing legislation designed to protect the nation's ecological biodiversity. This legislation| culminating with the Endangered Species Act of 1973| has been instrumental in defining methods for identifying and protecting endangered or threatened species and their habitats. Current legislation| however| assumes that the range of a protected species will stay constant over time. This assumption may no longer be valid| as the unprecedented increase in the number and concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has the potential to cause a global warming of 1.0-4.5-degrees-C and a sea-level rise (SLR) of 31-150 cm by the year 2100. Changes in climate of this magnitude are capable of causing shifts in the population structure and range of most animal species. This article examines the effects that SLR may have on the habitats of endangered and threatened species at three scales. At the regional scale 52 endangered or threatened plant and animal species were found to reside within 3 m of mean sea level in the coastal stages of the US Southeast. At the state level| the habitats of nine endangered or threatened animals that may be at risk from future SLR were identified. At the local level| a microscale analysis was conducted in the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge| South Carolina| USA| on the adverse effects that SLR may have on the habitats of the American alligator| brown pelican| loggerhead sea turtle| and wood stork. 4013,1993,4,4,SENSITIVITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY TO SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE,Increased occurrence of more intense tropical storms intruding further poleward has been foreshadowed as one of the potential consequences of global warming. This scenario is based almost entirely on the general circulation model predictions of warmer sea surface temperature (SST) with increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 and some theories of tropical cyclone intensification that support the notion of more intense systems with warmer SST. Whether storms are able to achieve this theoretically determined more intense state depends on whether the temperature of the underlying water is the dominant factor in tropical cyclone intensification. An examination of the historical data record in a number of ocean basins is used to identify the relative importance of SST in the tropical cyclone intensification process. The results reveal that SST alone is an inadequate predictor of tropical cyclone intensity. Other factors known to affect tropical cyclone frequency and intensity are discussed. 3950,1993,4,4,SIMPLIFIED DYNAMIC-MODEL ON CARBON EXCHANGE BETWEEN ATMOSPHERE AND TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS,Global warming is one of the serious global environmental problems and its major reason is considered cd to be the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration. In order that more precise and rational predictions of global warming and other climatic phenomena become possible by numerical simulations| the establishment of global material cycle models is essential particularly for carbon. As the first step in constructing this carbon cycle model| a simplified dynamic model describing the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems was developed. The carbon storage in biomass and the net primary production of various vegetations in steady states and their transitional changes in non-steady states derived by the model calculation were in good agreement with those previously reported in the literature. The net ecosystem production was also estimated for five types of vegetations during a long growth period. Though further improvements of the model are still needed| we can conclude at this stage that the basic framework of the carbon cycle model on the terrestrial ecosystems which may play a role as one of the sub-models of a global carbon cycle model was established. 3956,1993,4,6,SIMULATING PAST AND FORECASTING FUTURE CLIMATES,Climatic change is not a new phenomenon| nor is it random| as most of the variation can be explained in terms of variations in the sunlight reaching the surface of the Earth. The solar energy reaching the surface is modified by the aerosols in the atmosphere| however| and that means primarily aerosols of volcanic origin. The climatic history of the Earth is divided up into episodes with abrupt beginnings and ends. Rapid changes from one climatic state to another are normal. The fluctuations within|this century do not appear to be unusual in any respect. To the Author's knowledge there is no evidence that past climatic changes| including those of the last decades| are related to changes in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - except perhaps for warmer nights in the North American mid-west. It is not possible to simulate past climates using carbon dioxide content as the main variable| but it is possible to do so using calculated solar radiation as modified by volcanic aerosols. This strongly suggests that forecasts of the climatic future based on carbon dioxide increases are suspect. Computerized models of the climate that can simulate decadal and century-long variations of climate as well as variations on the millennium scale| suggest that the climate will not warm dramatically in the next fifty years| but will| rather soon after that| begin a rather rapid change towards the next glacial climate. Changes in our global array of cultures| sufficient to affect the global climate in a way which we perceive as beneficial| probably are not possible within centuries without massive physical conflict. There are both winners and losers when the climate changes in a non-uniform pattern| as it always does. It is a well-known fact that a global change of 0.5-degrees-C in mean temperature| such as has happened in recent years| might produce some regions of 10-degrees-C change in either direction and some regions with no change at all| and additionally an array of rainfall changes of various magnitudes. Russians would welcome warming of their climate! The problems with attempting to modify the global climate in a particular direction are enormous and would be incredibly costly. This is compounded by our not knowing what the climate would. do without intervention. Only one thing is truly clear| and ii is that the present knowledge of the climatic effect of changing carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere is totally inadequate as a basis for initiating any global attempt to change the climate. The indicated action would appear to be to engage in some high-quality climatic research based on sound science before taking global risks greater than those that might arise from the putative 'global warming'. 4058,1993,4,4,SOIL WARMING AND TRACE GAS FLUXES - EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN AND PRELIMINARY FLUX RESULTS,We conducted several experiments to determine a procedure for uniformly warming soil 5-degrees-C above ambient using a buried heating cable. These experiments produced a successful design that could: 1) maintain a temperature difference of 5-degrees-C over a wide range of environmental conditions; 2) reduce inter-cable temperature variability to ca. 1.5-degrees-C; 3) maintain a temperature difference of 5-degrees-C near the edges of the plot; and 4) respond rapidly to changes in the environment. In addition| this design required electrical power only 42% of the time. Preliminary measurements indicate that heating increased CO2 emission by a factor of ca. 1.6 and decreased the C concentration in the O soil horizon by as much as 36%. In addition| warming the soil accelerated the emergence and early growth of the wild lily of the valley (Maianthemum canadense Desf.). The relationship between CO2 flux and soil temperature derived from our soil warming experiment was consistent with data from other hardwood forests around the world. Since the other hardwood forests were warmed naturally| it appears that for soil respiration| warming the soil with buried heating cables differs little from natural| aboveground warming. By warming soil beyond the range of natural variability| a multi-site| long-term soil warming experiment may be valuable in helping us understand how ecosystems will respond to global warming. 4028,1993,3,3,SOLAR-HYDROGEN FUEL-CELL VEHICLES,Hydrogen is an especially attractive transportation fuel. It is the least polluting fuel available| and can be produced anywhere there is water and a clean source of electricity. A fuel cycle in which hydrogen is produced by solar-electrolysis of water| or by gasification of renewably grown biomass| and then used in a fuel-cell powered electric-motor vehicle (FCEV)| would produce little or no local| regional or global pollution. Hydrogen FCEVs would combine the best features of battery-powered electric vehicles (BPEVS)-zero emissions| high efficiency| quiet operation and long life-with the long range and fast refueling time of internal-combustion-engine vehicles (ICEVs). If fuel-cell technology develops as hoped| then hydrogen FCEVs will be a significant advance over both hydrogen ICEVs and solar BPEVs: they will be cleaner and more efficient than hydrogen ICEVs| have a much shorter refueling time than BPEVs and have a lower life-cycle cost than both. Solar-hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles would be general-purpose zero-emission vehicles| and could be an important component of a strategy for reducing dependence on imported oil| mitigating global warming and improving urban air quality| at an acceptable cost. 3972,1993,2,4,SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF MIDDLE-EASTERN TEMPERATURE-CHANGES,The intense interest in the greenhouse effect has stimulated detailed studies of temperature records in North America| Europe| and Australia. In this investigation| the temperature records from the Middle East region (defined here as the land area extending from Morocco to Afghanistan) are investigated over the period 1950-1990. Results reveal a linear| statistically significant| temperature increase of 0.07 degrees C per decade over the study area that may or may not be associated with the concurrent rise in equivalent carbon dioxide from approximately 350 ppm to 430 ppm. Seasonal analyses reveal that most of this increase has occurred in the spring season| moderate amounts of warming occurred in the summer and fall seasons| and virtually no warming has occurred in the winter months. An analysis of spatial controls on these temperature changes reveals a general cooling effect associated with the atmospheric sulfate levels and a warming effect associated with the degree of human-induced desertification. The results of this study may prove useful to policymakers in the Middle East who are confronted with many difficult decisions regarding highly interrelated global warming and energy issues. 3976,1993,3,4,STABILIZING UNITED-STATES NET CARBON EMISSIONS BY PLANTING TREES,This study investigates bow much the costs of stabilizing net carbon emissions in the United States at 1990 levels between 1990 and 2030 can be reduced by using trees to sequester carbon. Using the Fossil2 energy/economic model maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy| we estimate that trees can reduce the overall costs of stabilizing net carbon emissions by as much as 80 percent. More work is needed to verify the magnitude of the cost reduction. 3952,1993,2,4,STATISTICAL DEPENDENCE OF ALBEDO AND CLOUD COVER ON SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR 2 TROPICAL MARINE STRATOCUMULUS REGIONS,The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and albedo or cloud cover is examined for two tropical regions with high values of cloud radiative forcing and persistent marine stratocumulus (mSc)-one off the west coast of Peru| the other off the west coast of Angola. The data span five years| from December 1984 to November 1989. Albedos are from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment| cloud covers are from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project| and SSTs are from the Climate Analysis Center. Negative correlation coefficients between albedo and SST are found to be about -0.8 when the seasonal variation of the entire dataset is analyzed. The interannual variation and the spatial variation of individual months also yields correlation coefficients that are negative. The correlation between cloud cover and SST is found to be similar to but weaker than the correlation between albedo and SST| suggesting a decrease in cloud amount and a decrease in cloud albedo with increasing SST for these regions. The corresponding albedo sensitivity averages -0.018 K-1 with local values reaching -0.04 K-1. These findings are valid from 19 degrees C to 25 degrees C for the Peru mSc and 22 degrees C to 27 degrees C for the Angola mSc. These temperatures approximately bound the domains over which mSc is the prevalent cloud type within each region. These results imply a potential positive feedback to global warming by marine stratocumulus that ranges from similar to 0.14 W m(-2) K-1 to similar to 1 W m(-2) K-1| depending on whether or not our results apply to all marine stratocumulus. While these values are uncertain to at least +/-50%| the sensitivity of albedo to sea surface temperature in the present climate may serve as a useful diagnostic tool in monitoring the performance of global climate models. 2668,1993,3,2,STORAGE AND UTILIZATION OF CO2 IN PETROLEUM RESERVOIRS - A SIMULATION STUDY,There is a growing concern about the effect of greenhouse gases on global temperatures and its consequences. Among many greenhouse gases| carbon dioxide produced as a result of fossil fuel burning is a major contributor due to the huge volume emitted into the atmosphere. Because fossil fuels remain the driving force of modem economies| any economic growth in the developed or developing countries results in an increased emission of carbon dioxide. Consequently| reduction of carbon dioxide emissions has become an important issue. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that a worldwide reduction of the emission of green house gases by more that 60% is necessary to avert' the global climate change. It is now well recognized that the disposal issue is the most important obstacle to overcome for a practical solution of the carbon dioxide problem. In this paper a simulation study on the storage and utilization of carbon dioxide in petroleum reservoirs has been carried out. For simple storage| simulation studies to determine the capacity of a given reservoir are conducted for different reservoirs with a wide range of governing parameters. Major parameters studied are: initial reservoir pressure| final average reservoir pressure| impurities in the injected gas| petrophysical properties of the reservoir| and initial fluid saturations. For the utilization| simulation studies are carried out for both miscible and immiscible flooding enhanced oil recovery (EOR) processes. It is difficult to maintain carbon dioxide miscibility in a reservoir. It is found that immiscible but stable injection of carbon dioxide may be very effective in recovering oil.
4053,1993,3,3,STRUCTURAL COMPARISON OF THE MODELS IN EMF-12,This paper analyses the structures of the energy and economic models represented in the recently completed Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) study| EMF 12: Economic Impacts of Policies to Reduce Energy-Sector Carbon Dioxide Emissions. The 14 models in the study are heterogeneous| which has a number of advantages. Chief among these is the greater number of insights obtainable by comparing the models' results in and across' global warming policy scenarios. To fully appreciate the results| however| it is necessary to understand how a model's structure affects its output. The disadvantage of a diverse set of models is that it complicates structure comparison| and thereby the interpretation of results. The relevant model characteristics fall into three broad areas of comparison. The first is the model type| including market representation. Despite the many differences among the models| five distinct classes of market representations are seen within which models have great similarity. This simplifies understanding the remaining areas of comparison: energy demand and supply modelling. The foci here are the representation of capital stock dynamics and market penetration of carbon free energy sources respectively. 4092,1993,3,4,TECHNICAL OPTIONS FOR ENERGY-CONSERVATION AND CONTROLLING ENVIRONMENTAL-IMPACT IN HIGHWAY VEHICLES,Manufacturers of light-duty highway vehicles are sometimes caught between the desire of the consumer for a reasonable-cost conveyance that is a pleasure to operate and the mandates of regulation seeking societal objectives of energy conservation and preservation of air quality. The prospects for improving conventional vehicles in these areas by the year 2000 are considered. Alternative engines and fuels are reviewed for the same time-frame. The status of the battery-electric vehicle is assessed. Shifting attention to the mid-21st century| the possibility of global warming is chanelling thought toward non-fossil fuels| with hydrogen being added to the list of options. 2669,1993,3,2,TECHNOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR PLANNING THE GLOBAL CARBON FUTURE,The atmospheric level of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the dominant variable in the anthropogenic influence of future global climate change. Thus| it is critical to understand the long-term factors affecting its level| especially the longer-range technological considerations. Most recent analyses of the problem focus on the next 20 to 100 years. While great uncertainties exist in longer-term projections of CO2| it is of concern that the longer-range buildup (over many centuries) may be of substantial magnitude and might be so despite major efforts to reduce use of fossil reserves for energy| save world forests| and/or collect and dispose of CO2. This paper summarizes some of the recent literature relating to the longer-term CO2 problem and discusses some of the technological considerations for known prevention and mitigation approaches in the context of this longer-term problem. These approaches include: renewables (solar photovoltaics| wind| and biomass)| conservation| flue-gas and fuel CO2 sequestration via disposal on land or in the ocean| carbon recycling (chemical/biological utilization)| and atmospheric CO2 fixation/utilization via terrestrial and marine approaches. These are discussed along with other strategies to identify those that 1) could be major factors in preventing long-term CO2 buildup| 2) would be environmentally sound but likely to have more limited long-range CO2 impact| 3) would be environmentally uncertain or uncertain for other reasons| and 4) would be environmentally questionable or unlikely solutions for other reasons.
3973,1993,2,4,TEMPORAL VARIATION IN GROWTH-RATE AND AGE AT MATURITY OF MALE PAINTED TURTLES| CHRYSEMYS-PICTA,Growth rates of juveniles and age at maturity of males were examined in a population of painted turtles| Chrysemys picta| inhabiting a marsh in southwestern Michigan (approximately 42 degrees 24'N| 85 degrees 24'W) to compare temporal variation in these two important life history traits within a decade. Elongation of the third right foreclaw was used as an indicator of incipient sexual maturity of males. Males in the late 1980s reached maturity at least a year earlier than did those in the early 1980s. Analysis of climatological data revealed that growing seasons in the late 1980s were typically warmer and longer than in the early years of the decade. The observed changes in juvenile growth rates and age at maturity of male C. picta are in accord with recent field and laboratory studies of emydid turtles. They also support predictions of life history theory| and may serve as working hypotheses that can be tested with data from other long-term projects. If substantiated| these patterns may indicate how some freshwater turtle populations in temperate latitudes might respond to predicted global warming trends. 3977,1993,3,2,THE CARBON AND ENERGY BUDGETS OF ENERGY CROPS,Global warming is said to be caused by the build up of active greenhouse gases in our atmosphere and carbon dioxide - released on the combustion of fossil fuels is thought to be the most important of these. Agricultural crops| grown specifically for use as a fuel source| might play an important role in reducing our consumption of fossil fuel sources through substitution. However| in order to fully qualify as a ''beneficial crop'' it must be clearly shown that production entails a net benefit in terms of energy output to energy input i.e.; it has a positive energy balance. This paper considers the difficulties in assessing both carbon and energy budgeting. It describes a recently developed computer model which attempts to define the energy and carbon inputs and outputs of the leading UK energy crop| that is of short rotation coppice (SRC). Preliminary results show that SRC| when displacing fossil fuel| has a very positive energy yield with the added benefit of carbon saving in terms of offset emissions. The computer model takes account of direct and indirect energy and carbon inputs to the crop| allowing the model user to determine the sensitivity of individual cropping operations including establishment| fencing| harvesting operations| rotation and cutting cycle variations| the impact of field size| transport distance from the farm to the point of utilisation| the energy cost of storage and drying. Each management decision influences the final energy or carbon ratio of the SRC crop. Such complexity makes a definitive statement on the energy/carbon ratio for crop production difficult| however if a standard management system is adopted (as described later) the energy ratio of growing SRC for fuel may be assigned. In the case examined here a ratio of 30 : 1 (energy units produced : used) is reported. However| this ratio is sensitive to variation in crop yield and management efficiency and so| although the ratio is positive| this should not encourage a wasteful attitude to crop management systems. In terms of carbon balances| the most important consideration is the substitution value of the material in relation to fossil fuels. In this paper| figures presented refer to wood substituted for coal use and pertain to a field area of 1 hectare (ha). If field size is increased up to 3ha| then the energy and carbon ratios improve by approximately 15%. 3969,1993,4,4,THE CARBON-CYCLE AND GLOBAL FOREST ECOSYSTEM,Attempts to account for the fluxes by quantifying C sources and sinks have provided evidence of a missing C sink (Detwiler and Hall| 1988)| which may be located somewhere in the temperate region of the northern hemisphere (Tans et al.| 1990). Until recently| most estimates have concluded that the temperate forest is a small C source. Two recent papers (Sedjo| 1992; Kauppi et al.| 1992) provided evidence that the temperate forests are substantial C sinks. This paper combines these earlier findings on temperate forest carbon sequestration with a new estimate of the annual C releases due to tropical deforestation| 1.7 Gt| which is obtained using the FAO estimates of the rate of deforestation in the tropics over the decade of the 1980s and conservative estimates of C releases associated with this deforestation. Finally| to this is added the crude estimate of C export by the global river system found in Hall et al. (1992). Applying these estimates of the C sink function of both temperate and tropical forests to Detwiler and Hall's alternative C budgets largely eliminates the ''missing C'' hypothesized by Detwiler and Hall| and Tans et al. 2699,1993,4,4,THE CURRENT STATUS OF OPERATIONAL SATELLITE PRODUCTS FOR CLIMATE STUDIES,The current status of climate products being obtained from the real-time processing of operational satellite observations at NOAA is reviewed. Current global operational products relevant to climate studies include: atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles| winds| clouds| aerosols| ozone| sea surface temperature| vegetation index| snow cover and sea ice| planetary albedo| and outgoing longwave radiation. Current experimental operational products include sea surface wind speed| precipitable water| precipitation rate| snow cover and sea ice cover from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and surface and atmospheric longwave radiation fluxes from the TIROS Operational (SSM/I)| and surface and atmospheric longwave radiation fluxes from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) radiance observations. Recent results| accuracy estimates based on comparison with ground truth| and problems and possibilities for using operational satellite data for long-term global climate change studies are presented.
2691,1993,3,4,THE DILEMMA OF FOSSIL-FUEL USE AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,Fossil fuels present the difficult-to-reconcile dilemma that the energy systems of today's society dictate that we use great quantities of fossil fuels to produce the energy we need| but their use results in the liberation of large volumes of carbon dioxide (CO2)| which is one of the so-called ''greenhouse gases''. Certain models predict that uncontrolled releases of greenhouse gases could result in unacceptable increases in global mean temperature. This dilemma is examined and a method of management of the use of fossil fuels is presented that will help to mitigate the problems their use creates. The challenge is to avoid the dilemma by technology and policy intervention so that fossil fuels are used to the net benefit of society and its environment. We should take those low-cost measures that slow greenhouse gas emissions| and we should be prepared technologically to accomplish much larger reductions if necessary. At present| our technological insurance is not in place| but the opportunities for improvement are great| even for fossil fuels. Several low-cost actions that can be taken in the near term include the establishment of policies including R&D that encourage the development of more efficient and economical end-use and conversion technologies (e.g.| more efficient gas turbines| fuel cells| oxygen-blown gasifiers| and processes for producing hydrogen from fossil sources); more intensive R&D to accelerate the development of better nonfossil sources including direct solar| biomass| and other renewables| fission| and fusion; policies that encourage the substitution of hydrogen-rich for hydrogen-lean fuels and expansion of the natural gas system| particularly in developing nations; cooperation by western industrialized countries in providing technical assistance to developing and Eastern European countries for producing energy technologies that are both economically and environmentally more attractive| including expanding the development and use of the natural gas resources of the former Soviet Union; R&D to increase our understanding of the global cycle of CO2 releases to the atmosphere and its removal by the oceans and by terrestrial ecosystems so that climate stabilization targets and policies can be better established; and experiments with CO2 recovery and sequestration techniques so that the economic and environmental impacts are better understood.
2697,1993,2,4,THE EFFECT OF SOIL-MOISTURE AND THAW DEPTH ON CH4 FLUX FROM WET COASTAL TUNDRA ECOSYSTEMS ON THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA,Results from a 2-year study of wet coastal tundra ecosystems located near Prudhoe Bay| Alaska indicate that CH4 flux to the atmosphere is strongly controlled by soil moisture content and the depth of the seasonally thawed soil active layer. Daily CH4 flux from a flooded and well drained site on the Prudhoe Bay oil fields was on average 0.7 and 0.1 gC m-2 day-1| respectively over both sampling seasons. Daily CH4 flux in an area located approximately 50 km south of Prudhoe Bay was considerably higher. This area (APL 133-3) contained a flooded| moist| and dry site which emitted on average 1. 5| 1. 1| and 0.2 gC m-2 day-1 to the atmosphere| respectively over both sampling seasons. These flux rates represent significant inputs of CH4 to the atmosphere. Evidence of the importance of soil moisture and thaw depth in controlling CH4 flux| coupled with the predominantly waterlogged| anaerobic conditions of wet tundra soils| suggest the potential for strong interactions of this soil-atmosphere system with global climate change.
4041,1993,4,6,THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DATA,When all of the greenhouse gases are expressed in CO2 equivalents| we find that over the past 100 years| equivalent CO2 values have increased by 40%. Over this period| the temperature of the planet appears to have increased by 0.5-degrees-C| however| much of this warming may be explained by a variety of non-greenhouse factors. In addition| fully 75% of the global warming of the past century occurred before the end of the Second World War| long before most of the trace gases were added to the atmosphere. Furthermore| the celebrated warming of the 1980s and early 1990s is seriously challenged by recent satellite-based global temperature measurements that show essentially no warming at all. In an effort to explain these findings| climate scientists are pointing to the cooling effects of human-induced increases in atmospheric SO2. The bottom line is simple-despite a public perspective to the contrary| the global temperature record provides little support for the catastrophic view of the greenhouse effect.
2692,1993,2,3,THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD - A COMPARISON OF 4 MODEL PERFORMANCES,Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases are expected to modify the climate of the earth in the next 50-100 years. Mechanisms of plant response to these changes need to be incorporated in models that predict crop yield estimates to obtain an understanding of the potential consequences of such changes. This is particularly important in Asia where demographic forecasts indicate that rice supplies worldwide will need to increase by 1.6% annually to the year 2000 to match population growth estimates. The objectives of this paper are (1) to review the major hypotheses and/or experimental results regarding rice sensitivity to climate change and (2) to evaluate the suitability of existing rice models for assessing the impact of global climate change on rice production. A review of four physiologically-based rice models (RICEMOD| CERES-Rice| MACROS| RICESYS) illustrates their potential to predict rice responses to elevated CO2 and increased temperature. RICEMOD does not respond to increases in CO2 nor to large increases in temperature. Both MACROS and CERES (wetland rice) responses to temperature and CO2 agree with recent experimental data. RICESYS is an ecosystem model which predicts herbivory and inter-species competition between rice and weeds but does not respond to CO2. Its response to increasing temperature also agrees with experimental data.
3995,1993,2,4,THE LOWLAND-TO-UPLAND TRANSITION MODELING PLANT-RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE,A published correlative model has predicted that the distributional limits of plants and vegetation zones on mountains will increase in altitude with global warming. I test this hypothesis using results from published experimental studies. Investigations and models of the responses of leaf growth to temperature are in accord with the prediction. However| the individualistic responses of species to CO2 enrichment indicate that the prediction is unlikely to be true for all species: growth is stimulated by CO2 enrichment for some species but not for others. Wind speed generally increases with altitude on mountains| and plants from high altitude tend to be more wind resistant than species from the lowland. Therefore it is expected that| particularly on wind-swept mountains| global warming will not necessarily be followed by the spread of lowland species into the uplands. 4069,1993,3,3,THE NET GREENHOUSE WARMING FORCING OF METHANOL PRODUCED FROM BIOMASS,Recent national and international actions regarding atmosphere warming mitigation| clean technology| and technology transfer have emphasized the need for a method for unambiguous greenhouse gas emissions analysis for comparing technologies| documentation of application of the method| and proof of applicability. We have developed and applied such an approach to production of methanol fuel from woody biomass. The entire approach is detailed| whereby the system was defined| its emissions for its entire lifetime delineated| and the atmospheric warming forcing calculated for that lifetime plus after effects. The results are presented with material and energy balances including ancillary equipment| external energy subsidies and invested quantities. These extend the analysis considerably beyond those possible using the global warming potential (GWP). For wood input of 283 mg day-1| 70 mg of methanol are produced. System carbon dioxide emissions are 3.18 tonne/tonne methanol produced| with another 1.37 mg emitted when that tonne methanol is burned in a vehicle. System energy usage efficiency was 41.2%| and 41.1% with inclusion of energy to construct the system. In essence| more than two Joules of carbon must be produced in wood for every Joule burned in the vehicle. 3982,1993,2,2,THE PLANKTON MULTIPLIER - POSITIVE FEEDBACK IN THE GREENHOUSE,The plankton multiplier is a positive feedback mechanism linking the greenhouse effect and biological pump (Woods|J.D.| Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution| 1990). As pollution increases the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide| the enhanced greenhouse effect induces radiative forcing of the ocean| which diminishes the depth of winter convection| reducing the annual resupply of nutrients to the euphotic zone and therefore the annual primary production. That weakens the biological pump| which contributes to oceanic uptake of CO2. As the ocean takes up less CO2| more remains in the atmosphere| accelerating the rise in radiative forcing. We have used a mathematical model of the upper ocean ecosystem| based on the Lagrangian Ensemble method| to estimate the sensitivity of the biological pump to radiative forcing| which lies at the heart of the plankton multiplier. We conclude that increasing radiative forcing by 5 W m-2 (equivalent to doubling atmospheric CO2) reduces the deep flux of particulate carbon by 10%. That sensitivity is sufficient to produce significant positive feedback in the greenhouse. It means that the plankton multiplier will increase the rate of climate change in the 21st century. It also suggests that the plankton multiplier is the mechanism linking the Milankovich effect to the enhanced greenhouse effect that produces global warming at the end of ice ages. 4074,1993,4,4,THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SUMMER SEASON DAIRY-CATTLE MILK-PRODUCTION AND REPRODUCTION,The potential direct effects of possible global warming on summer season dairy production and reproduction were evaluated for the United States and Europe. Algorithms used for milk production and conception rate were previously developed and validated. Three widely known global circulation models (GISS| GFDL| and UKMO) were used to represent possible scenarios of future climate. Milk production and conception rate declines were highest under the UKMO model scenario and lowest under the GISS model scenario. Predicted declines for the GCM scenarios are generally higher than either '1 year in 10' probability-based declines or declines based on the abnormally hot summer of 1980 in the United States. The greatest declines (about 10% for the GISS and GFDL scenarios| and about 20% for the UKMO scenario) in the United States are predicted to occur in the Southeast and the Southwest. Substantial declines (up to 35%) in conception rates were also predicted in many locations| particularly the eastern and southern United States. These areas correspond to areas of high dairy cattle concentration. They already have relatively large summer season milk production declines resulting from normally hot conditions. Thus| the actual impacts of increased production declines may be greater in other areas| which are not accustomed to large summer season declines and therefore may require more extensive mitigation measures. 2663,1993,2,3,THE POTENTIAL RESPONSE OF GLOBAL TERRESTRIAL CARBON STORAGE TO A CLIMATE-CHANGE,An analysis is undertaken to examine the potential impacts of a global climate change on patterns of potential terrestrial C storage and resulting fluxes between terrestrial and atmospheric pools. A bioclimatic model relating the current distribution of vegetation to global climate patterns is used to examine the potential impacts of a global climate change on the global distribution of vegetation. Climate change scenarios are based on the predictions of two general circulation model equilibrium simulations for a 2XCO2 atmosphere. Current estimates of C reserves in the vegetation types and associated soils are then used to calculate changes in potential terrestrial C storage under the two climate change scenarios. Results suggest a potential negative feedback to increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2| with the potential for terrestrial C storage increasing under both scenarios. These results represent an equilibrium analysis| assuming the vegetation and soils have tracked the spatial changes in climate patterns. An approach for providing an estimate of the transient response between the two equilibria (i.e.| current and 2XCO2 climates) is presented. The spatial transitions in vegetation predicted by the equilibrium analyses are classified as to the processes controlling the transition (eg.| succession| dieback| species immigration). Estimates of the transfer rates related to these processes are then used to estimate the temporal dynamics of the vegetation/soils change and the associated C pools. Results suggest that although the equilibrium analyses show an increased potential for C storage under the climate change| in the transient case the terrestrial surface acts as a source of CO2 over the first 50 to 100 yrs following climate change.
3953,1993,2,3,THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING AND METHANE GAS HYDRATES IN THE EARTH,Temperature rise due to the increased concentration of trace atmospheric gases (TAG) in the atmosphere has the potential to cause decomposition of the methane hydrates in many parts of the earth. Methane gas hydrate reservoirs are located within permafrost or sediment underlying permafrost or below the ocean floor. The possibility of methane hydrate decomposition due to global warming is investigated by using a mathematical model based on heat conduction in single and composite media. Phase change within permafrost is taken into account. The temperature profiles and the critical time required for the onset of methane hydrate decomposition were computed and found to depend on the global warming scenario| the thermophysical properties of the earth and the required driving force for hydrate decomposition. The temperature at the top of a typical methane hydrate zone will begin to rise within the next 100 yr under a global temperature rise of 0.08-degrees-C/yr. However| methane hydrate decomposition will require a finite driving force and thus will occur later. Under a global temperature rise of 0.006-degrees-C/yr| these phenomena will be substantially delayed. 4036,1993,5,4,THE SIGNIFICANCE OF MARGINOPORA-VERTEBRALIS (FORAMINIFERA) IN SURFICIAL SEDIMENTS AT ESPERANCE| WESTERN-AUSTRALIA| AND IN LAST INTERGLACIAL SEDIMENTS IN NORTHERN SPENCER GULF| SOUTH AUSTRALIA,Surficial sediments at Esperance| on the southern coast of Western Australia| are predominantly bioclastic carbonates in which tests of foraminifera are a major constituent. The megascopic species Marginopora vertebralis is prolific| occupying relatively protected areas of algal turf and seagrasses. The abundance of this normally tropical foraminifer at southern latitudes can be attributed to the Leeuwin Current| which brings warm waters from the tropics to southwestern Australia| and then eastwards| past Esperance into the Great Australian Bight. The Leeuwin Current is significantly warmer than the cool interfacing waters of the Southern Ocean that otherwise characterise the southern Australian continental shelf. Last interglacial sediments of the Glanville Formation| in northern Spencer Gulf of South Australia| host an assemblage of fossil foraminifera which is similar to that of the modern environment at Esperance| especially the presence of M. vertebralis. Two bivalve molluscs| Anadara trapezia and Pinctada carchariarium| both characteristic of warm waters| are also present in the Glanville Formation. Marginopora vertebralis and other faunal elements migrated to South Australia by means of the last interglacial equivalent of the Leeuwin Current| which apparently had greater definition at that time. It may therefore be inferred that| during other times of global warming and corresponding higher sea levels| the palaeo-Leeuwin current had greater ecological influence across the continental shelf of Southern Australia. Thus| warm-water marine fossils in the Glanville Formation do not necessarily signify last interglacial water temperatures for the open Southern Ocean| beyond the continental shelf. Similarly| it cannot be assumed that these fossils necessarily indicate a last interglacial climate for terrestrial southern Australian that was warmer than presently prevails. 4003,1993,3,3,THE TECHNICAL CHALLENGES FOR SOLID DESICCANT COOLING,Air conditioning and dehumidification systems using solid desiccants have been developed and are finding niche applications in commercial building with special humidity problems or requirements. Ongoing research is being directed at materials and components investigations which have the promise of increasing the performance and reducing the cost of air conditioning systems to the point that they will realize broader application for building environmental control. This technical progress| coupled with intensive societal pressures for limiting the growth of peak electrical demand and release of global warming and ozone destruction gases| suggests that desiccant technology will experience an expanding penetration of the building air conditioning market. 4012,1993,3,3,THE THEORY OF ENERGY RETURN ON INVESTMENT - A CASE-STUDY OF WHOLE TREE CHIPPING FOR BIOMASS IN PRINCE-EDWARD-ISLAND,Industrial societies consume vast quantities of fossil fuel resources| the carbon dioxide released when these fuels are combusted is a major concern because of global warming. ''Energy Return On Investment'' (EROI) is the ratio of energy gain from a resource relative to the energy invested to achieve that gain. EROI analysis shows that the net energy available from fossil fuels decreases as resources are depleted| encouraging a transition to renewable resources which will not be depleted under sustainable management. Renewable resources can reduce net contributions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere; however| many sources of renewable energy require fossil fuel inputs into their production process. EROI analysis can also be used to determine renewable energy sources with the greatest energy gain| relative to the fossil fuel investment required to achieve that gain. One renewable source of energy with considerable potential for expansion in Canada is wood biomass. A case study of whole tree chipping (WTC) in Prince Edward Island revealed an EROI ratio of wood chip energy gained relative to fuel energy invested of 26.7:1. The major factor affecting the EROI for WTC was transport of the chips to the burning facilities: distance and load size were important components that should be considered when designing new burning facilities. There are some benefits and disadvantages of WTC not captured by EROI analysis that also need to be considered.
4056,1993,2,3,THE TRANSIENT-RESPONSE OF TERRESTRIAL CARBON STORAGE TO A PERTURBED CLIMATE,MODEL simulations suggest that at equilibrium| global warming driven by higher atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will lead to increased terrestrial carbon storage1|2| implying a negative feedback between the global vegetation/soil system and the atmospheric CO2 Concentration. But changes in vegetation and soil type that result in a net release of CO2 to the atmosphere (such as those caused by wildfires) could be more rapid than changes that result in a net increase in terrestrial carbon storage (such as species immigration and soil formation)| so that in its transient response to climate change| the terrestrial vegetation/soil system could be a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. Here we use two general circulation models3|4 to estimate the transient response of the terrestrial surface to a step doubling of atmospheric CO2. We find that vegetation and soil changes could prove to be a significant source of CO2 in the first 50-100 years following a climate warming| increasing the atmospheric CO2 concentration by up to a third of the present level. 2661,1993,5,4,TM-LANDSAT IMAGERY APPLIED TO THE STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE ON A TROPICAL COASTAL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE LAST DEGLACIATION,The discovery and subsequent mapping of an ancient shoreline at 25 m depth in N-E Brazil by TM-Landsat imagery is described. The study area is located on a tectonically stable part of the Brazilian shelf which presently shows a minor uplift rate of 0.2 mm year-1| to the north of Natal in the State of Rio Grande do Norte. This submerged shoreline is characterized by the occurrence of a large number of long beachrock outcrops (> 3 km in length)| observed by diving| which are comparable to their analogues seen on the present-day beaches of the adjacent coast. The good state of preservation of this shoreline and the large number of carbonate rock 'reefs' on it suggest abruptness of a return to transgressive sea-level trend with high growth rates subsequent to a long-lived sea-level relating to the 11000-9000 yr B.P. band. By reviewing high resolution paleoclimatic data from this period| we conjecture that this stillstand could be a consequence of the Younger Dryas cold event in the north Atlantic| which might have also had importance as a driving morphogenetic process for coasts in a global scale.
3966,1993,3,3,TOTAL EQUIVALENT WARMING IMPACT - A MEASURE OF THE GLOBAL WARMING IMPACT OF CFC ALTERNATIVES IN REFRIGERATING EQUIPMENT,Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are important components of refrigeration equipment| plastic for insulation for buildings and appliances| and solvent cleaning processes. The Montreal Protocol to Protect Stratospheric Ozone Layer and recent revisions to the protocol require a rapid phase-out of the production and use of CFCs and a transition to alternative materials and technologies. It is important that the alternative technologies selected do not exacerbate the global warming problem while attempting to preserve stratospheric ozone. A study was conducted to evaluate the total global warming impact of proposed alternatives to CFCs and this paper focuses on the aspects of that study relevant to refrigeration and air-conditioning. The concept of total equivalent warming impact (TEWI) is developed as a measure of the combined global warming impacts of the refrigerant losses to the atmosphere and the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to generate power to run the refrigeration and air-conditioning systems. Equipment using alternatives to CFCs has lower TEWIs than current systems in almost all cases| with dramatic reductions possible in some applications. 4020,1993,5,4,TROPICAL FOREST CHANGES DURING THE LATE QUATERNARY IN AFRICAN AND SOUTH-AMERICAN LOWLANDS,Arboreal pollen and montane elements of Late Quaternary pollen assemblages from three lacustrine cores (West Cameroon| southeastern Amazonia and central Brazil) are correlated| by the radiocarbon chronology| with other palaeoenvironmental records in Africa and South America. We observe in both continents a well-developed dense forest at 30|000 and 9000 yr B.P. The succession of vegetation types during the Late Quaternary appeared strongly related to the regional conditions: (1) the dense forest was more or less degraded depending on the regions during the last full glacial period (20|000-15|000 yr B.P.); (2) a slow increase of tree elements is evidenced in some areas during the Late Glacial (15|000-10|000 yr B.P.)| whereas short-term fluctuations occurred in central Brazil during the same time; (3) a strong regression of the forest during the middle Holocene (6000-5000 yr B.P.)| in the southern tropical zone of South America| was in opposition to a full forest development in Africa. In both continents two main features characterize the tropical forest evolution: (1) Montane elements developed in the lowlands during the last glacial period and in some southern or northern regions during the early Holocene; and (2) the climate seasonality was enhanced in several regions since 8500-7500 yr B.P. For a tentative explanation| we relate the cold or cool climate| inferred by palaeoecological evidences in the glacial period and glacial-interglacial transition| to polar air-masses reaching more frequently the tropical zone. This interpretation explains the apparent contradiction between the markedly low temperature of the continental lowlands opposed: (1) at 18|000 yr B.P.| to the 1-2-degrees-C lower Sea Surface Temperature of tropical oceans and (2) to the global warming during the late glacial. During the middle and Late Holocene| climate evolution was mainly influenced by the latitudinal shift of the ITCZ positions in July and January and| in South America| by short-term changes of the zonal atmospheric circulation. 3970,1993,4,3,TROPOSPHERIC OZONE AND CLIMATE-CHANGE,Considerable attention has been paid in recent years to photo chemical smog pollution close to the earth's surface and to stratospheric ozone depletion. There is reason to suspect that the next round of scientific concern will be devoted to the perturbations in the ''free troposphere.'' Tropospheric ozone has been building up in many regions of the northern hemisphere. Ozone changes in the upper troposphere will exert a considerable impact on global warming. This could affect moisture levels| cloud amount and distribution| precipitation| and atmospheric dynamics on different scales. This paper analyzes: (1) the physical and chemical processes contributing to changes in tropospheric ozone concentration; (2) the observational evidence of previous ozone change; and (3) results drawn from computer modelling of past and future radiative forcing caused by rising ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere. The solar and longwave radiative model developed by Wang et al. (1 991) was used for calculating the change in radiative forcing to the troposphere-surface system that can be ascribed to changing concentrations in ozone and other greenhouse gases. Nitric oxide emission from aircraft are a prime suspect for the observed increases in upper tropospheric ozone. The inference can be drawn that a radiative forcing of 0.2 to 0.35 Wm-2 Will result from a doubling of aircraft emissions over the next two decades. This will amount to 10 to 25 percent of the radiative forcing attributable to CO2 alone for the same period. The effect of doubling aircraft emissions will increase as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover from the recent buildup of harmful chlorofluorocarbons. A large fraction of the radiative forcing that occurred during the 1970 to 1990 period can be attributed to increases in tropospheric ozone as opposed to increases in other greenhouse gases. 3959,1993,4,3,UNCERTAINTIES IN CARBON-DIOXIDE RADIATIVE FORCING IN ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODELS,Global warming| caused by an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases| is the direct result of greenhouse gas-induced radiative forcing. When a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide is considered| this forcing differed substantially among 15 atmospheric general circulation models. Although there are several potential causes| the largest contributor was the carbon dioxide radiation parameterizations of the models. 3955,1993,3,4,UNITED-STATES DEMILITARIZATION AND GLOBAL WARMING - AN EMPIRICAL-INVESTIGATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PEACE DIVIDEND,In the paper input-output methods are used to generate ballpark empirical estimates of the implications for global warming of the projected demilitarization of the US federal budget. The impact is found to be qualitatively ambiguous| and highly sensitive to the manner in which the funds saved are distributed. The effect is adverse where the budgetary savings are used to fund economy-wide cuts in personal taxation and/or deficit reduction. In other cases the effect may be neutral or beneficial. 2686,1993,4,3,USE OF GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL OUTPUT IN THE CREATION OF CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR IMPACT ANALYSIS .1.,Many scientific studies warn of a rapid global climate change during the next century. These changes are understood with much less certainty on a regional scale than on a global scale| but effects on ecosystems and society will occur at local and regional scales. Consequently| in order to study the true impacts of climate change| regional scenarios of future climate are needed. One of the most important sources of information for creating scenarios is the output from general circulation models (GCMs) of the climate system. However| current state-of-the-art GCMs are unable to simulate accurately even the current seasonal cycle of climate on a regional basis. Thus the simple technique of adding the difference between 2 x CO2 and 1 x CO2 GCM simulations to current climatic time series cannot produce scenarios with appropriate spatial and temporal details without corrections for model deficiencies. In this study a technique is developed to allow the information from GCM simulations to be used| while accommodating for the deficiencies. GCM output is combined with knowledge of the regional climate to produce scenarios of the equilibrium climate response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration for three case study regions| China| Sub-Saharan Africa and Venezuela| for use in biological effects models. By combining the general climate change calculated with several GCMs with the observed patterns of interannual climate variability| reasonable scenarios of temperature and precipitation variations can be created. Generalizations of this procedure to other regions of the world are discussed.
3978,1993,3,4,UTILIZATION OF CARBON-DIOXIDE FROM FOSSIL-FUEL - BURNING POWER-PLANTS WITH BIOLOGICAL-SYSTEMS,Physical-chemical processes for the capture and sequestration of CO2 from fossil fuel-fired power plant flue-gases are very expensive. Biological processes for CO2 utilization involve plant photosynthesis and conversion of the biomass to fuels| with no net CO2 production. Terrestrial plants cannot utilize flue gas CO2 directly. Only submerged aquatic plants| particularly microalgae| can utilize CO2 from power plant flue gases in a practical process. Microalgae have the potential for achieving high productivities and can be converted to gaseous and liquid fuels. A-preliminary cost-analysis of such a process is presented that suggests that| if high productivities are achievable| overall costs would compare favorably with alternative physical-chemical processes for flue gas CO2 capture and sequestration| but would be higher than CO2 mitigation with terrestrial plants. Microalgae CO2 utilization systems would be most applicable where land and water (seawater| brackish) resources| not readily utilized by agriculture| are available. 4065,1993,4,4,WATER-VAPOR AND ITS ROLE IN THE EARTHS GREENHOUSE,This paper examines the role of water vapour as a greenhouse gas and discusses its role in the evolution of the atmospheres of Venus| Earth and Mars. The paper focuses on how the greenhouse effect operates on Earth and describes the feedback between temperature and water vapour that is thought to play a key role in global warming induced by increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide. A method for analysing the contribution of water vapour to the greenhouse effect using satellite observations is discussed. It is shown how this contribution varies in a directly proportional way with the amount of water vapour vertically integrated through the column of the atmosphere. Based on the results obtained from the analyses of satellite data| it is established that the sensitivity of the greenhouse effect to changing sea surface temperature is not uniform over the globe and is significantly greater over warmer oceans. The relevance of the results to the water vapour feedback is discussed. 2615,1994,4,3,A HISTORICAL REVIEW OF EARLY INSTITUTIONAL AND CONSERVATIONIST RESPONSES TO FEARS OF ARTIFICIALLY INDUCED GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE - THE DEFORESTATION-DESICCATION DISCOURSE| 1500-1860,Systematic notions of significant human impacts on regional and global climate change and species extinctions developed first in the French and British colonial empires. Building on classical Greek theories linking deforestation to rainfall decline the colonial climatic theorists were stimulated by the Newtonian thinking of Stephen Hales and his disciples. The new climate theories led to pioneering forest protection schemes in Tobago| St Vincent| St Helena| Mauritius and western India where the East India Company actively promoted conservation. The Royal Society of Arts| the Academie des Sciences and the Royal Geographical Society all acted as institutional mechanisms for encouraging forest protection based on feats of climate change| long before early environmentalism developed in the United States.
3839,1994,2,4,A METHODOLOGY FOR THE EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WARMING IMPACT ON SOIL-MOISTURE AND RUNOFF,This paper presents a numerical evaluation of the variability of soil moisture and direct surface runoff due to global warming. An analytical model of the soil moisture balance based on our previous work is used to evaluate the probability distribution of the soil moisture concentration and resulting surface runoff. The input of hydroclimatic values is based on the approach suggested by C.W. Richardson in 1981. Our results show that not only the mean of the distribution of both soil moisture and runoff change| as expected| but that the variability of the values around the means also changes. The results of our research have immediate applications on the planning of reservoir operation for irrigation demands and evaluation of the change in surface runoff expected due to global warming. 3871,1994,2,4,A NOTE ON THE REPRESENTATION OF STERIC SEA-LEVEL IN MODELS THAT CONSERVE VOLUME RATHER THAN MASS,This note discusses the representation of steric sea level in ocean circulation models. Changes in steric sea level are caused when changes in the density of the water column imply an expansion or contraction of the column. Models usually intake the Boussinesq approximation and conserve volume| rather than mass| and so do not properly represent expansion or contraction. This means that although expansion/contraction is included in the equation of state| it is not accounted for by the model dynamics. In this note| we examine the equation governing the time evolution of the sea level displacement. It is shown that requiring conservation of mass| rather than volume| introduces a new term to this equation. A simple example is used to show the relationship of the new term to the surface buoyancy flux. The equilibrium response to the new term has two parts. One part consists of the Goldsbrough and Stommel gyres| for which| in the ocean interior| vortex stretching due to the local expansion/contraction of the water column is balanced by changes in planetary vorticity. The other part corresponds to the ''inverse barometer.'' The effect is to adjust sea level by a globally uniform but time-varying factor| determined by the net expansion/contraction of the global ocean. Since this correction is globally uniform| it has no dynamical significance. Both the Goldsbrough/Stommel gyres and the inverse barometer solution are missing from models as currently formulated. This does not represent a serious error. However| if comparison is made with observations of sea level| model-calculated sea level should be adjusted by a globally uniform| time-varying factor| determined by the net expansion/contraction of the global ocean. This would be important for assessing the likely rise in sea level in response to global warming. 3853,1994,4,4,A SIBERIAN VEGETATION MODEL-BASED ON CLIMATIC PARAMETERS,A model for predicting the spatial distribution of the major vegetation zones in Siberia is developed from bioclimatological considerations. Driving variables are growing degree-days (5 degrees C base)| Budyko's dryness index| and Conrad's continentality index. Because these indices reflect the underlying climatic factors determining plants' requirements for warmth| drought resistance| and cold tolerance| they define the main features of vegetation zonation. Climatic inputs (monthly mean temperature| precipitation| vapor pressure| cloudiness| and albedo) are obtained from a global climatic database| supplemented by additional weather stations in Siberia; resolution is 0.5 degrees longitude by 0.5 degrees latitude. The performance of the model is examined by comparing our Siberian vegetation predictions with the landscape map of the USSR by Isachenko| a map that was not used for model development. The patterns of vegetation predicted by the Siberian vegetation model generally match well with the vegetation patterns on Isachenko's map. The general locations of all vegetation zones are predicted correctly. This visual impression is also borne out statistically| with K-statistics for judging agreement between the maps showing good agreement (0.55 < kappa < 0.7) at all scales of comparison (from 0.5 degrees by 0.5 degrees pixels to 5 degrees by 5 degrees blocks of pixels). The model is also useful for estimating the change in equilibrium conditions due to hypothesized events such as CO2-induced global warming| for retrospective comparisons using the paleorecord| and for carbon budget assessment. 3897,1994,3,2,A STRATEGY TO REDUCE CO2 EMISSIONS FROM HYDROCARBON-FUELED POWER-PLANTS BY PRECOMBUSTION REFORMING AND DEEP-OCEAN DISCHARGE OF CO2,A process to reduce atmospheric CO2 emissions from hydrocarbon-fueled power plant is proposed. The fuel is reformed into a mixture of hydrogen and CO2 before combustion takes place. These gases are subsequently separated by preferential absorption or by differential phase changes. Thereafter| hydrogen replaces the original fuel for power generation. The liquefied CO2 is discharged into the deep ocean. Water depths of about 500 m appear to be favorable from logistic and thermoeconomic standpoints. Calculations for a 500 MW methane power plant| retrofitted with the proposed system| indicate moderate power and cost penalties. The relative impact of a widespread implementation of this global warming countermeasure is assessed| and the advantages of moderate hydrocarbon consumption trends| as well as of high CO2 discharge fractions are highlighted. This latter point may indicate the need for sweeping changes| such as the establishment of hydrogen-based economies if global warming is to be avoided. 3886,1994,3,4,ABATEMENT OF N2O EMISSIONS PRODUCED IN THE ADIPIC ACID INDUSTRY,Apidic acid (AA) manufacture results in the production of ca. 1 mole of nitrous oxide (N2O) per mole of AA. Emissions of N2O by the AA industry currently account for about 5-8 percent of the worldwide anthropogenic N2O emissions (after accounting for N2O abated by some manufacturers). Even though this N2O does not make a major contribution to global warming and ozone depletion| major AA producers worldwide have agreed to substantially reduce these emissions by 1996-98. Producers have formed an inter-industry group to share information on technologies being developed for N2O control. Technology options being studied by DuPont (and by others) include thermal destruction| recycling| and catalytic decomposition. 3865,1994,3,3,ADVANCED COAL-FIRED LOW-EMISSION BOILER SYSTEMS,As part of the Combustion 2000 Program of the US Department of Energy| advanced low-emission boiler systems are being developed for future coal-fired power plants. These plants will be extremely clean| highly efficient and economic| by employing emerging and state-of-the-art technologies. The emissions of SO.| NO(x) and particulates from the plants will be much lower than the current new source performance standards (NSPS)| and the net plant efficiency of generating electricity will be higher than that of today's pulverized-coal-fired utility plants. The high plant efficiency results in low fuel use and reduced emission of gases (CO2) associated with global warming. At present| engineering development of advanced systems is being conducted by three industry teams. The development work includes new emission control technologies| state-of-the-art boiler designs and low-temperature heat recovery systems for improved plant efficiencies| systems for improved ash disposability and reduced waste generation| and optimum system integration and plant controls. The technologies considered by these teams for low-emission boiler systems are discussed. 3896,1994,2,3,AGRICULTURAL POLICY| CLIMATE-CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY IN MEXICO,This paper describes how variations in agricultural policy and climatic conditions have influenced maize production and food security in 20th-century Mexico. We describe the Mexican food system today and how economic policy has influenced food output in efforts to attain food security based on the goal of national self-sufficiency. We examine the impact of climate variability on agricultural production; the ways in which agricultural policy has interacted with climate to change vulnerability to environmental and social change and the implications of global warming for the future of Mexican agriculture. Finally| we discuss the implications of the changing economic environment as Mexico has opened its economy - for example| through the North American Free Trade Agreement. Our goal is to provide a context for thinking about the implications of two types of global change for Mexico - the internationalization of economies and the widespread transformation of the environment. 2647,1994,3,3,AGRICULTURES SHARE IN THE EMISSION OF TRACE GASES AFFECTING THE CLIMATE AND SOME CAUSE-ORIENTED PROPOSALS FOR SUFFICIENTLY REDUCING THIS SHARE,This paper discusses agriculture's share in the world-wide emissions of climate-affecting gases and in the global warming potential (GWP). Proposals also are presented to reduce these emissions adequately| using a cause-oriented approach. Largely due to the fertilization and cultivation of agriculture as well as the burning of biomass| agriculture has a very high share in the anthropogenic emissions of NH3| N2O | CH4 and CO at >95%| 81%| 70% and 52%| respectively| while its share in the NO(x) and CO2| emissions is relatively small at 35% and 21%. The GWP of agriculture| based on annually 16.1 x 10(9) tons of CO2| approaches 63% of the GWP of the energy sector or 80% of the GWP of its CO2 emissions. At 34% and 32%| respectively| the main originators in the GWP of agriculture would seem to be CO2 (changing land use) and CH4 (animal husbandry/rice cropping/biomass burning) followed at 15% by NO2 (technical and biological N fixation/(cultivation and recultivation/biomass burning) and 10% and 9% by CO and NO(x). The GWP of 3 German dairy cows corresponds with 13.2 tonnes CO2 per year the GWP of two average German automobiles. However| the ozone-destroying effect of N2O and the climate-relevant effects of NH3 are not yet included here. As with the therapy for other 'modern' boundary-crossing environmental damages| such as acidification or eutrophication| global climate change therapy likewise needs a therapy for the respective effects of reactive compounds of carbon| nitrogen| phosphorous| and sulfur also emitted by agriculture: Proposals for reducing these emissions within the agricultural sector include need-oriented plant| animal and human nutrition| more efficient external and internal nutrient recycling| the cessation of further clearing by burning| along with intensified afforestation mainly in the tropics| targeted measures to reduce nutrient losses/emissions| and measures for more efficient use of nutrients in plant| animal and human nutrition. These measures would at best result in reduced pollution of the global environment but not put it to an end. Decisive| therefore| is both the tolerable extent of mankind and its long-term sustainable way of life.
3826,1994,3,3,AIRPORT REVOLUTION,Air quality regulations are encouraging the use of electric vehicles at urban airports across the United States. In many ways| airports offer an ideal application for EVs| given the short distances and predictable routes that airport vehicles typically travel. Even considering the emissions from power plants supplying electricity to an airport| the replacement of internal combustion vehicles with comparable electric-powered vehicles significantly reduces pollutants that contribute to such environmental problems as smog| haze| and global warming. Through EPRI's Airport Electrification Project| utilities in urban areas are working in partnership with their airport customers to devise strategies for the cost-effective implementation of EVs. 3859,1994,3,3,ALKALINE FALLING-FILM FUEL-CELL - A BREAKTHROUGH IN TECHNOLOGY AND COST,The work described in this paper was oriented towards fuel cells for practical applications| but mainly presents data obtained using half-cells. The economic significance of these data is discussed| together with the technical concept of fuel cell power stations and for transportation applications. The proposed fuel cell will generate power at much lower costs than conventional power plants| and a zero-emission vehicle with fuel cells will operate at lower fuel cost than a car with an internal combustion engine. The simple falling-film process leads to high power densities (6 kW/l) and low cost. The details given are valid for the use of hydrogen produced from fossil energy sources. Concentrated CO2| a byproduct of this technology can be stored in discussed oil and gas fields at a very low cost to avoid global warming. Thus| this 'down-to-earth' hydrogen technology is as free from CO2 emissions as solar-hydrogen technology. 3801,1994,2,4,AN ECONOMIC-ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE IN EGYPT,Projections of climate impacts on crop yields simulated for different General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios are used| in a recursively dynamic general equilibrium framework| to account for potential economy-wide impacts of climate change in Egypt| Comparing impact projections to those obtained under a reference| business-as-usual| scenario assuming some moderate changes in the political| economic or technological spheres| indicates that global warming has potentially negative effects. The analysis is based on a global assessment of potential climate change-induced variations in world commodity production and trade. The Egyptian agricultural sector| and the non-agricultural sector to a lesser extent| are projected to be increasingly less self-sufficient. Specific potential adverse impacts are identified. The simulation results show that high-cost adaptation measures involving major changes in the agricultural system and practices may mitigate these adverse impacts. Stimulating economic development of the rural areas and creating appropriate conditions for effective diffusion and development of technologies - particularly for the agricultural sector - would seem a desirable strategy. Perhaps| more importantly| the simulation results show that the assumption of exogenously determined technological progress may be inappropriate| in which case the potential adverse impacts of a future warming of the global climate are likely to be fewer than is indicated in this study - if prevailing constraints on productivity growth in the major food and feed grains are 'released' by endogenous advances in technology. 3814,1994,3,3,AN EVALUATION OF AUTOTROPHIC MICROBES FOR THE REMOVAL OF CARBON-DIOXIDE FROM COMBUSTION GAS STREAMS,Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that is believed to be a major contributor to global warming. Studies have shown that significant amounts of CO2 are released into the atmosphere as a result of fossil fuels combustion. Therefore| considerable interest exists in effective and economical technologies for the removal of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion gas streams. This work evaluated the use of autotrophic microbes for the removal of CO2 from coal fired power plant combustion gas streams. The CO2 removal rates of the following autotrophic microbes were determined: Chlorella pyrenoidosa| Euglena gracilis| Thiobacillus ferrooxidans| Aphanocapsa delicatissima| Isochrysis galbana| Phaodactylum tricornutum| Navicula tripunctata schizonemoids| Gomphonema parvulum| Surirella ovata ovata| and four algal consortia. Of those tested| Chlorella pyrenzoidosa exhibited the highest removal rate with 2.6 g CO| per day per g dry weight of biomass being removed under optimized conditions. Extrapolation of these data indicated that to remove CO2 from the combustion gases of a coal fired power plant burning 2.4 x 10(4) metric tons of coal per day would require a bioreactor 386 km(2) x 1 m deep and would result in the production of 2.13 x 10(5) metric tons (wet weight) of biomass per day. Based on these calculations| it was concluded that autotrophic CO2 removal would not be feasible at most locations| and as a result| alternate technologies for CO2 removal should be explored. 3920,1994,4,4,AN INTEGRATED MODELING OF STOICHIOMETRY AND BIOKINETICS OF ANAEROBIC PROCESSES,The objective of this paper was to present an integrated modeling approach to biokinetics and stoichiometry of anaerobic treatment processes. A software system has been developed to calculate bacterial yield coefficients from stoichiometry under different anaerobic bioprocess conditions. Kinetic constants| i.e.| the reaction rate constant and Monod half-velocity coefficient| were determined from batch experimental data using Conreg| a software system for constrained nonlinear regression. Additional experiments were performed to evaluate the usefulness of the Inhibition Coefficient model to predict toxicity of ammonia and methylene chloride in anaerobic batch systems. The integrated approach to biokinetics and stoichiometry and the software developed for this purpose should help engineers quickly evaluate a wide variety of design options for anaerobic treatment systems under both toxic and non-toxic conditions. Other useful applications include prediction of natural rates of methane (a gas causing global warming) formation in rice paddies. 3880,1994,3,3,AN OPINION ON THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF MEAT CONSUMPTION,The topic of vegetarian nutrition can be approached from several angles| perhaps one of the most important being the impact that meat production is having on the underdeveloped world| where ancient rain forests are being cleared to provide land for cattle grazing. Debt-burdened countries are turning over agricultural land to raise cattle and grains for feeding the cattle. These practices have resulted in less available land for the production of food| global warming because of the practices used for deforestation| exhaustion of the world's water supply| and other adverse effects on the health of the world. The consumption of meat for food is taking a toll on the consumer and the health of the world's poorest people. It is also contributing to an expanding need for foreign aid and growing world hunger. 3937,1994,5,4,ANCIENT REEF ECOSYSTEM EXPANSION AND COLLAPSE,Platform carbonate and| particularly| reef ecosystem development (with reefs representing the acme of carbonate platform growth) were highly cyclical in early to mid Paleozoic time| especially in relation to known or postulated times of global warming or cooling. These cycles do not appear to correspond to postulated 26 Ma rhythms seen in diversity patterns| nor were they regular. There were major periods of worldwide reef expansion (e.g. mid-Silurian-Late Devonian)| corresponding to global warming well above present day norms| and periods of complete global reef collapse (e.g.| mid-Cambrian to mid-Ordovician| Late Devonian) corresponding to global perturbations. At times of major reef expansion in the Paleozoic| areas covered by equatorial reef and inter-reef carbonate platforms are conservatively estimated to have periodically exceeded 5 million sq. km| nearly ten times that in the modern ocean. At times of global reef collapse| e.g. the Famennian (Late Devonian)| reef complexes were completely absent or| at best| covered < 1000 sq. km. The chief factors relating to periodic collapse and mass extinction of reef biotas appear to be related to climatic change and possibly ocean anoxic events| in turn as a response to large scale| geologically disruptive factors such as plate collisions| plate movement across equatorial belts and volcanism. Stress ''signals'' in Cambrian through Cretaceous reef ecosystems appear to be comparable to those of today: whether these relate to physical versus biological stress is uncertain. Reef stress is evident in globally reduced areas and thicknesses of reef carbonate production| the absence of large scale barrier reef systems and reduction to smaller patch reef complexes (or| periodically| following mass extinctions| no reefs at all)| reduced species and genus diversity| small skeletons or colonies| limited or no biotic zonation along reef transects| and arrested succession and ecologic replacement of complex| more highly evolved taxa by ''simpler''| stress-resistant disaster taxa at the genus to ordinal (or even phylum) level. 3811,1994,3,4,ANODE EFFECTS| PFCS| GLOBAL WARMING| AND THE ALUMINUM-INDUSTRY,As concerns grow about the role that perfluorinated carbon compounds (PFCs) play in global warming| the aluminum industry is voluntarily exploring ways of reducing the volumes of CF4 and C2F6 generated during Hall-Heroult electrolysis. As these gases are produced only during anode effects| which are undersirable for other production reasons as well| aluminum producers are aggressively examining ways to reduce the number of anode effects that occur as well as their duration.
3846,1994,3,3,ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS OF NITROUS-OXIDE (N2O) FROM EUROPE,Anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from Europe| and Asiatic Turkey| are estimated for the period 1960-2040. Between 1960 and 1985 these emissions are found to have doubled to 1059 kton N2O-N/year. For future emissions three scenarios are defined: a no reduction scenario| where current trends continue; an acid reduction scenario| reflecting the implementation of maximum feasible technology to reduce acidification; and an optimistic scenario| in which both N2O and acidifying emissions are strongly reduced. In the no reduction and acid reduction scenario anthropogenic N2O emissions increase to 1199 and 1274 kton N2O-N/year by 2040| respectively. Thus technologies to reduce acidification are calculated to cause a net increase in N2O emissions. In the optimistic scenario 534 kton N2O-N is emitted annually from 2020. A climate goal| aiming to limit future global warming to 0.1-degrees-C/decade| is calculated to require a stabilization of anthropogenic European emissions at 221 kton N2O-N/year (based on a pro rata contribution of greenhouse gases to emission reductions| and worldwide equal per capita N2O emissions). In all three scenarios N2O emissions exceed 221 kton N2O-N/year. In order to meet their goal| countries need to cut anthropogenic emissions by 59-90% relative to 1985| and by 40-63% relative to 2040 in the optimistic scenario. 3845,1994,4,4,APPLICATION OF A FOURIER-TRANSFORM IR SYSTEM FOR MEASUREMENTS OF N2O FLUXES USING MICROMETEOROLOGICAL METHODS| AN ULTRALARGE CHAMBER SYSTEM| AND CONVENTIONAL FIELD CHAMBERS,Measurements of the sources and sinks of biogenic trace gases such as N2O and CH4 from terrestrial ecosystems are important in explaining and predicting the influence of these gases on global warming. Because of their biological origins the fluxes of these gases often show high spatial and temporal variation. Traditional methods of flux measurement use different types of field chambers or micrometeorologically based methods. These methods have several shortcomings and may not always be applicable to flux measurements of trace gases such as N2O or CH4. Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy| due to its path-integrating and multicomponent nature| shows unique potential for the measurement of fluxes of greenhouse gases from various ecosystems. To assess this potential| we have used a medium resolution (1 cm-1) FTIR spectrometer to test its suitability for area-integrated measurements| simultaneous multicomponent measurements| and continuous real-time measurements of trace gas fluxes. We have tested three different configurations: a conventional field chamber where the FTIR is used to continuously and simultaneously monitor the concentration changes of several gases| a megachamber method using a large tent as field chamber with the FTIR optical path within the chamber| and a micrometeorological flux gradient method. The three configurations are described and discussed and their performance is demonstrated in measurements of fluxes of N2O from a fertilized. grassland and CH4 from a forest soil. 3895,1994,3,4,APPLYING ENVIRONMENTAL LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS TO MATERIALS,The life-cycle analysis (LCA) of products is essentially the LCA of materials: both are concurrently and interdependently analyzed and assessed according to their environment effects. This approach provides a framework to measure the extrinsic environmental properties of materials. In the following| three properties-gross energy requirement| global-warming potential| and solid-waste burden-are broadly discussed for steel| aluminum| and polyethylene. The environmental profiles are then applied to assess the use of alternative materials in terms of the LCA of an automotive component. Given the possibility of a substantial variation in results| one must be careful with the scoping and assessment of LCA. Despite the limitations| it provides a useful map for improving environmental compatibility and performance. 3792,1994,4,4,ASSESSING THE ABILITY OF THE KOPPEN SYSTEM TO DELINEATE THE GENERAL WORLD PATTERN OF CLIMATES,The Koppen climate classification system [Koppen| 1923] is a scheme that provides an objective numerical basis for defining regional climatic types based on temperature and precipitation. Through the years it has been used as a scientific and teaching tool for prescribing the general world pattern of climates. Here for the first time an evaluation of the system is performed by employing coextensive temperature and precipitation data over the N. Hemisphere for the last 140 years. First the global pattern of climate type sensitivity is obtained. From this pattern it is discovered that several climate types exhibit a rather strong variability. Since all climate types depend on temperature we then tested whether or not the above variability is due to the fact that over the last 140 years the global climate system exhibits a well documented positive temperature trend known as global warming. We found that the Koppen system is rather insensitive to the observed global warming and concluded that overall the system performs rather poorly over Europe and Asia whereas it appears adequate over N.America and N.Africa. 3847,1994,4,4,ATMOSPHERIC LIFETIME| ITS APPLICATION AND ITS DETERMINATION - CFC-SUBSTITUTES AS A CASE-STUDY,The concept of atmospheric lifetime| its application in atmospheric chemistry| and its use in defining environmental acceptability indices such as the ozone depletion potential and the global warming potential are described. The determination of the atmospheric lifetime from laboratory measured chemical kinetic and photochemical parameters is highlighted. A brief description of the laboratory methods used to determine kinetic parameters and the difficulties encountered in measuring them are given. In all these descriptions and discussions| chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and their substitutes are used as examples. The environmental acceptability of the currently proposed CFC substitutes| the hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are discussed. Lastly| the question is raised: Should atmospheric lifetime be used as an index of accept ability? 2634,1994,2,4,AVIAN COMMUNITY DYNAMICS ARE DISCORDANT IN-SPACE AND TIME,The threat of global climate change challenges community ecologists to predict long-term and continental-scale changes in the structure of ecological communities. However| the vast majority of studies have been done at small temporal and spatial scales. Can conclusions about community dynamics based on small-scale studies be extrapolated to larger spatial and temporal scales? We compared the dynamics of regionally coexisting bird species over different spatial and temporal scales using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We found that such extrapolation is suspect. Bird species that had similar local year-to-year population fluctuations did not have similar long-term population trends. Additionally| species that had similar population dynamics in one region rarely exhibited similar dynamics in the different regions where they occurred together.
3794,1994,3,3,BASIC EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS OF LIQUID CO2 INJECTION INTO THE DEEP-OCEAN,CO2 disposal in the deep ocean is expected to be an effective option for mitigating the increase in CO2 on the earth. We have investigated the behaviour of liquid CO2 using test facilities which can simulate the pressure and temperature of the deep ocean. Phase equilibrium data of the CO2-seawater system and the conditions of CO2 clathrate formation were confirmed. In addition| we measured the pH value of seawater saturated with CO2 at high pressure. The data presented in this paper are considered indispensable for evaluating the possibility of CO2 disposal in the deep ocean. 3899,1994,2,4,BENTHIC AMPHIPOD COMMUNITY IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA - ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL STRUCTURING MECHANISMS,The age class structure of ampeliscid populations is determined largely by competition for space. Population densities of the various ampeliscid species are regulated by a balance between required carbon flux rates to the seafloor| predation rates| competition for space and reproductive potential. The largest taxa require high organic matter input and low predation rates to mature and reproduce. Reductions in organic matter flux favor smaller taxa. Low predation rates favor larger taxa| which can out-compete the smaller taxa for available space. High predation rates favor smaller taxa| which have a higher reproductive rate and are therefore more effective colonizers. The above factors can explain the relative concentrations of Ampelisca macrocephala| Ampelisca birulai and Byblis spp.| the most abundant ampeliscids in the northern Bering Sea. Elevated predation losses to gray whales will depress the density of the large-sized A. macrocephala populations and increase the density of the smallest species| A. birulai. Global warming should elevate ampeliscid food requirements| and may also lead to elevated predation rates| both selecting for smaller species. 3824,1994,2,3,BEYOND GLOBAL WARMING - ECOLOGY AND GLOBAL CHANGE,While ecologists involved in management or policy often are advised to learn to deal with uncertainty| there are a number of components of global environmental change of which we are certain-certain that they are going on| and certain that they are human-caused. Some of these are largely ecological changes| and all have important ecological consequences. Three of the well-documented global changes are: increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; alterations in the biogeochemistry of the global nitrogen cycle; and ongoing land use/land cover change. Human activity-now primarily fossil fuel combustion-has increased carbon dioxide concentrations from similar to 280 to 355 mu L/L since 1800; the increase is unique| at least in the past 160 000 yr| and several lines of evidence demonstrate unequivocally that it is human-caused. This increase is likely to have climatic consequences-and certainly it has direct effects on biota in all Earth's terrestrial ecosystems. The global nitrogen cycle has been altered by human activity to such an extent that more nitrogen is fixed annually by humanity (primarily for nitrogen fertilizer| also by legume crops and as a byproduct of fossil fuel combustion) than by all natural pathways combined. This added nitrogen alters the chemistry of the atmosphere and of aquatic ecosystems| contributes to eutrophication of the biosphere| and has effects on biological diversity in the most affected areas. Finally| human land use/land cover change has transformed one-third to one-half of Earth's ice-free surface. This in and of itself probably represents the most important component of global change now and will for some decades to come; it has profound effects on biological diversity on land and on ecosystems downwind and downstream of affected areas. Overall| any clear dichotomy between pristine ecosystems and human-altered areas that may have existed in the past has vanished| and ecological research should account for this reality. These three and other equally certain components of global environmental change are the primary causes of anticipated changes in climate| and of ongoing losses of biological diversity. They are caused in turn by the extraordinary growth in size and resource use of the human population. On a broad scale| there is little uncertainty about any of these components of change or their causes. However| much of the public believes the causes-even the existence-of global change to be uncertain and contentious topics. By speaking out effectively| we can help to shift the focus of public discussion towards what can and should be done about global environmental change. 3931,1994,2,4,BIODIVERSITY OF CORAL-REEFS - WHAT ARE WE LOSING AND WHY,Coral reefs are threatened by numerous anthropogenic impacts| some of which have already had major effects worldwide. These unique tropical environments harbor a high diversity of corals| reef invertebrates| fish and other animals and plants. In most taxa| the species diversity of reef-associated organisms is poorly understood because many of the species have yet to be collected and described. High coral mortality has been associated with natural events such as hurricanes| predator outbreaks and periods of high temperature| but has also resulted from excess nutrients in sewage and from specific pollutants. Reef corals and associated organisms are also threatened by the possibility of global warming which will result in rising sea levels and periods of increased temperature stress| and which may also bring increased storm frequency and intensity. Although the recent extensive episodes of coral bleaching in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific cannot be causally related to global warming at this time| the close link between bleaching and temperature suggests that global warming will result in severe changes in coral assemblages. Major reef destruction has followed outbreaks of the predatory seastar Acanthaster planci in the Pacific. Although this is considered part of a natural disturbance cycle| there are indications that altered land use patterns and reduction of predators on this seastar by human activities may have increased the severity of outbreaks. Recreational and commercial use of reefs has also increased| and has caused extensive damage| especially near areas of high population density. One of the most obvious and widespread losses to reef biota is the reduction in fish populations from intense overfishing in most reef areas of the world. Coasts without adequately managed reefs have suffered intense overfishing for both local and export purposes| to the point where the positive effects of fish on those reefs have been compromised. The combination of these destructive factors has altered reefs in all localities| and many that were once considered protected by distance and low population density are now being exploited as well. On the positive side| improved understanding of ecological processes on reefs combined with concerted conservation efforts have managed to protect some extensive areas of reef for the future.
2625,1994,2,4,BIOMASS ALLOCATION OF MONTANE AND DESERT PONDEROSA PINE - AN ANALOG FOR RESPONSE TO CLIMATE-CHANGE,We measured aboveground biomass allocation of Pinus ponderosa on hydrothermally altered andesite in montane and desert climates. Thus substrate was held constant while climate varied. Trees from montane climates had higher leaf mass per unit cross-sectional area of sapwood (functional conducting xylem) than trees from desert climates| suggesting that a functional response to differences in climate had occurred. Our results also indicate that sapwood mass:leaf mass ratios of P. ponderosa may increase approximate to 50% with a 5 degrees C change in mean growing-season temperature| approximately the difference between our montane and desert sites. High proportional allocation of biomass to sapwood may improve water relations of P. ponderosa| but because sapwood contains living parenchyma| respiratory costs may be high. Site-specific regression equations were used to calculate aboveground biomass allocation for simulated montane and desert trees with the same diameter at breast height| dbh. Simulated montane trees were 46-52% taller than desert trees| and montane trees 10 cm in dbh had twice the total aboveground mass of desert counterparts. Simulated 50-cm montane and desert trees were almost identical in total mass| even though the montane tree was 46% taller. The predicted proportion of biomass allocated to bole sapwood increased with size for both montane and desert models; however| the 50-cm desert model contained 8% more total sapwood mass than the taller montane model. Total biomass of branches was similar for paired models of all size classes; however| biomass of primary and secondary branches differed considerably. The 50-cm desert model had twice as much biomass in primary branches in comparison to the montane model| whereas the montane model had 3 times more biomass in secondary branches than the desert model. For 10-cm trees of the desert and montane models 29 and 33% of the biomass were leaves| respectively. In larger trees| leaf allocation decreased to 5 and 7% for desert and montane models| respectively. The effects of climate on biomass allocation| such as reported here| and corresponding changes in whole-plant assimilation rates must be incorporated into growth-response models used to predict future fluctuations in forest productivity due to global climate change.
3898,1994,4,3,CARBON EXPORT FROM CONTINENTAL SHELVES| DENITRIFICATION AND ATMOSPHERIC CARBON-DIOXIDE,To investigate the long-term role of continental shelves| a global carbon box model which included continental shelf waters and sediments| ocean surface waters| the deep-sea and the atmosphere was constructed. With nitrogen limiting oceanic primary production| the model included balanced nitrogen inputs (from the continents and atmosphere) and losses (primarily via denitrification). Carbon export to the deep-sea (without deposition or burial in sediments) affected the average conditions found in the shelves but did not influence atmospheric carbon dioxide content. Similarly| redistribution of nitrogen inputs to the surface oceans had no major effect on atmospheric pCO(2). Tn contrast| atmospheric pCO(2) changes were caused by redistribution of denitrification rates between the continental shelf sediments and the deep-sea. When denitrification in continental shelf sediments increased from 10% of the total oceanic rate to 95%| shelf denitrification removed more nitrogen from the surface ocean| supporting less of a flux of sinking particulate carbon (SPC) into the deep-sea. This increased atmospheric pCO(2) by II ppm. When overall rates of nitrogen cycling were decreased by half to today's level| the atmospheric pCO(2) content was increased by an additional 5 ppm. These effects may have influenced the ice-ages. As the glaciers expanded| shelf denitrification was lessened by the reduction in continental shelf area. Moving the site of denitrification from the shelves to the deep-sea would have increased both oceanic new production and the SPC flux into the deep-sea| thereby lowering atmospheric pCO(2) levels during the initial periods of glaciation. Increased new production may have enhanced water column denitrification which in turn lowered the oceanic inorganic nitrogen content and restricted oceanic productivity. With less oceanic nitrogen| water column denitrification would have decreased resulting in a more equal proportioning of the total removal rate between the deep-sea and the continental shelves. Also| the total cycling rate of nitrogen would have lessened. In addition| inundation of the continental shelves during glacial retreat would have increased shelf denitrification. From the model| these trends would have released CO2 from the ocean| accentuating global warming and hastening the return to the interglacial climate. 3933,1994,3,2,CARBON SEQUESTRATION| BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY| AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - INTEGRATED FOREST MANAGEMENT,Tropical deforestation provides a significant contribution to anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration that may lead to global warming. Forestation and other forest management options to sequester CO2 in the tropical latitudes may fail unless they address local economic| social| environmental| and political needs of people in the developing world. Forest management is discussed in terms of three objectives: carbon sequestration| sustainable development| and biodiversity conservation. An integrated forest management strategy of land-use planning is proposed to achieve these objectives and is centered around: preservation of primary forest| intensified use of nontimber resources| agroforestry| and selective use of plantation forestry. 3799,1994,4,3,CARBON-DIOXIDE - POLLUTANT OR POTENTIAL CHEMICAL FEEDSTOCK,This review provides a general introduction to carbon dioxide and its contribution to global warming| to the thermodynamics of CO2 reduction and to the electrocatalysis of this endogenic process. Contributions from the author's laboratories which provide firm evidence for the mechanism of the electrocatalytic reduction of CO| in the presence of protons are discussed. Advantages in the possible use of metal clusters and| in particular| metal clusters containing polypyridine ligands as potential electrocatalysts for this reduction process are outlined| and the synthesis| chemistry and electrocatalytic activity of some of the complexes of this type are highlighted. The second half of the review is devoted to discussion on the synthesis and coordination behaviour of custom-built phosphorus-polypyridine ligands such as 6-diphenylphosphino-2|2'-bipyridine (Ph(2)Pbpy) and 2-(diphenylphosphino)quinoline (Ph(2)Pquin)| ligands designed to curtail the fragmentation of dinuclear and metal cluster compounds as well as to function as electron reservoirs on the surface of the cluster| This is followed by discussion on the electrocatalysis of CO2 reduction by a number of dinuclear systems containing these ligands| such as [Cu-2(mu-Ph(2)Pbpy)(2)(MeCN)(2)](2+). Finally| reference is made to the carboxylation of unsaturated organic compounds promoted by electrogenerated catalysts and to the development of photo- and photoelectrocatalysts for CO2 reduction. 3945,1994,3,2,CFC-FREE RIGID POLYURETHANE FOAM INSULATION PRODUCTS,This paper provides an overview of the commercially successful CFC-free rigid polyurethane insulating products now established in the UK market| which have been made available because of the need to move away from the use of potent ozone depleting CFC blowing agents used for the past 35 years. Detailed evidence is included to support the claim that the performance of these new products and their life expectancy is equal to that of their CFC based counterparts. It shows that because of the great diversity of products and applications| that currently five different blowing agents are used since whilst many ozone benign blowing agents exist| none matches the other unique features of the CFCs R11 and R12 entirely. Nevertheless it is demonstrated that the products now in use in the UK| by comparison with their CFC counterparts| are playing a significant part in eliminating the threat to the ozone layer| whilst at the same time being able to continue to make their significant contribution to the reduction of CO2 emissions| believed to be the main cause of global warming. 3791,1994,2,3,CHLOROFLUOROCARBON UPTAKE IN A WORLD OCEAN MODEL .1. SENSITIVITY TO THE SURFACE GAS FORCING,The uptake and redistribution of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) CFC-11 and CFC-12 are studied in a series of world| ocean model experiments. In part 1 of this study the sensitivity of the simulated CFC distributions to the model parameterization of air-sea CFC fluxes is examined within a control experiment. The control experiment represents a low-resolution ocean model with global coverage and a proper seasonal cycling in surface thermohaline and wind stress conditions. The specification of a surface ocean CFC concentration that is instantaneously in saturated equilibrium with the atmosphere is found to flux too much CFC into the model. Signatures of CFC-11 are found to be grossly overestimated in regions of deep and bottom water formation| both in the surface mixed layer and at depth. The use of a classical air-sea gas exchange formula (even one with a simplified gas transfer velocity that is independent of wind speed) is seen to greatly improve the CFC simulations at depth. In addition| the model reproduces many of the observed trends in surface CFC concentrations; namely| undersaturation in regions of deep convective overturn and near-surface upwelling and supersaturation in the summer mixed layer. In further sensitivity experiments| we consider the effect of sea ice cover in limiting air-sea gas exchange in polar waters. It is found that bottom water in the Arctic Ocean and around the Antarctic continent is significantly reduced in CFC content once regions covered with sea ice are limited to fractional air-sea gas exchange. This more physically meaningful framework is found to further reduce the spurious uptake of CFC-11 and CFC-12 found under a ''saturated surface'' assumption. In a final sensitivity experiment the gas exchange rate is parameterized using a complete wind speed and Schmidt number dependence. The wind speed dependent gas forcing increases the surface CFC equilibration rate under the subpolar westerlies. On the other hand| the polar and tropical oceans witness reduced CFC uptake under a wind speed dependent flux regime. Simulated ocean CFC concentrations are compared directly with observational data in certain key areas for deep and bottom water formation. It is found that a reasonable representation of oceanic CFC is achieved in the convected water column in the Weddell and Labrador Seas. In contrast| deep waters that have left the convective area with the model ocean currents are found to be deficient in CFC-11 in the North Atlantic Ocean. This is because the model advective timescale for North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) outflow across the equator is too long compared with observed ocean estimates. The long timescale is not due to unrealistically sluggish deep currents. Rather| the path of NADW outflow includes a loop eastward from the Labrador Sea into the Northeastern Atlantic Basin| effectively increasing the required outflow journey by around 4000 km. This ages the water mass by almost 10 years| thereby yielding significantly lower CFC concentrations in the NADW extension. In addition| the outflow signature spreads too far into the eastern North Atlantic| presumably because the advective process is too broad and the horizontal diffusion too strong at depth. Contrasting the North Atlantic| bottom water CFC ventilation in the Southern Ocean is found to be too strong| even when significant levels of surface undersaturation are simulated in polar waters. CFC-tagged waters flowing into the deep South Atlantic basin (from the Weddell Sea formation zone) are too enriched in CFC11| even when the deep signatures adjacent to the Antarctic shelf remain close to observations. This suggests that the advective timescale for bottom water ventilation is too rapid in the Southern Ocean. In addition| too much convective overturn persists in the Southern Ocean at 55 degrees S-70 degrees S| with unrealistically deep CFC-11 penetration noted at particular longitudes. This is because not enough older (CFC-deprived) water recirculates and upwells into the Southern Ocean. For example| more upwelled circumpolar deep water in the Southern Ocean would weaken the CFC-11 concentrations by contributing to a lower CFC mixture and by suppressing the convective activity in the region. Bottom and deep level CFC signatures are broad and diffuse compared with the real ocean. The broadness of the CFC imprint is due| in part| to the model resolution| which gives any convective event a spatial extent of at least 3.75 degrees longitude by 4.5 degrees latitude and a bottom level CFC signal thickness in excess of 800 m. An important finding of our study is that the vertical convection of unstable waters acts as the efficient tracer ventilator of the ocean system. This has significant implications for numerical studies of the world's climate| since the meridional overturning has traditionally been considered the reason for the ocean's moderating influence during global warming scenarios. Our study suggests that the vertical convection would play a much greater role over the typical timescale for anthropogenic climate change. 2638,1994,2,4,CLADODE DEVELOPMENT| ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSES OF CO2 UPTAKE| AND PRODUCTIVITY FOR OPUNTIA-FICUS-INDICA UNDER ELEVATED CO2,Opuntia ficus-indica| an extremely productive CAM plant cultivated in many countries| was exposed to 36| 52| and 72-73 Pa CO| in field plots and open-top chambers. Initiation of new cladodes (stem segments) was monitored until the canopy closed| after which bimonthly harvests maintained the plants for one year at a cladode area per unit ground area that is optimal for biomass production. Doubling the CO2 partial pressure slightly increased the number of first-order daughter cladodes growing on the basal (planted) cladodes after 3 months and nearly doubled the number and area of second-order cladodes. When the CO2 level was doubled| cladodes were 5% thicker after a few months and 11 to 16% thicker after one year. Although the productivity enhancement by elevated CO2 tended to decrease during the year| the annual above-ground dry-mass gain was 37 to 40% higher when the CO2 level was doubled| reaching 65 tons hectare(-1) year-l in a field plot. Well-watered cladodes at day/night air temperatures of 25 degrees C/15 degrees C and a total daily photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) of 15 mol m(-2) d(-1) in controlled environment chambers had 74% more net CO2 uptake over 24 h at 73 Pa than at 37 Pa CO2. With doubled CO2| the percentage enhancement of net CO2 uptake increased as the PPF was lowered| as the temperature was raised| and during drought. Using an environmental productivity index based on such factors| net CO2 uptake and hence productivity of O. ficus-indica can be predicted for elevated CO2 levels and other variations accompanying global climate change.
2616,1994,2,4,CLIMATE AND THE SOUTHERN LIMIT OF THE WESTERN CANADIAN BOREAL FOREST,Four species of boreal forest conifers share a similar southern limit of natural distribution in the three Prairie Provinces of western Canada. The southern boundaries of boreal forest and aspen parkland were compared with geographic patterns of several climate variables to provide a preliminary assessment of how global climate change could affect forest distribution in the future. Forest zonation corresponded most closely with climatic moisture regimes (annual precipitation minus potential evaporation). In contrast| thermal characteristics of climate (mean July and annual temperature| growing degree-days) showed an inconsistent relationship with forest zonation. It is postulated that moisture limitations prevent conifer regeneration south of the present limit of natural distribution. Alternatively| the more arid climates south of the boreal forest may have promoted higher fire frequencies historically| thus preventing conifers from achieving sufficient longevity to regenerate. The driest areas of boreal forest in the region occur at low elevations in west-central Manitoba| throughout Saskatchewan and Alberta| and the southwestern Mackenzie District| Northwest Territories; these areas may be most vulnerable to increased climatic dryness. Climatically induced losses of forest cover from these low-elevation areas could eventually lead to the fragmentation of the boreal forest in western Canada.
3797,1994,2,2,CLIMATE OF THE 21ST-CENTURY,The outgoing long wave radiation to space is significantly reduced as a result of heat absorption by the so-called greenhouse gases| notably water vapour| carbon dioxide| methane| nitrous oxides and chlorofluorocarbons. The dominating ones are water vapour and carbon dioxide. The direct effect of the greenhouse gases is to increase the average temperature of the earth's surface by some 33 degrees C| that is from -18 degrees C to the present 115 degrees C. Since the industrial revolution the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation has led to an increase of 26% in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It is presently increasing by about 0.5% per year. Based on strict radiative forcing calculations| the total additional warming because of the increase in greenhouse gases| not including the effect of associated changes in water vapour| is equivalent to about 2.5 W m(-2) and is estimated to increase to some 10 W m(-2) at the end of the next century. The solar constant| by comparison| is equal to 341 W m(-2) globally averaged. The effect on climate cannot satisfactorily be estimated on radiation balance calculation only but must incorporate the large scale atmospheric circulation and the important feedbacks with water vapour (positive feedback)| clouds (both positive and negative feedbacks)| surface albedo and the oceans. For that reason it is necessary to build comprehensive mathematical models of the coupled ocean/land atmosphere system and carry out numerical simulation experiments. Several such studies have been undertaken during the last few years both in Europe and the USA. Results from these experiments| and in particular from those carried out at the Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie in Hamburg| will be presented and discussed. Because of the enormous complexity of the problem| a number of simplified assumptions have been used and the results so far must be cautiously assessed. The overall global warming from these experiments is about 3 degrees C with a difference of about 0.5 degrees C between the experiments. There are large regional differences and the warming is generally larger over land than over sea. A particular problem is the temperature of the North Atlantic and also in the Antarctic waters where changes in the deep ocean circulation are significant. The strong coupling to the deep ocean circulation in the North Atlantic reduces the warming in this area and consequently moderates the effect on the European climate. Sea level is estimated to increase by around 15 cm because of thermal expansion of sea water; however| it appears likely that there may also be an increased accumulation of ice on Antarctica and probably Greenland which may at least partly compensate for this increase. Possible changes in the vegetation following a climate change have been estimated by evaluating the response of a biome model. This shows minor changes in the vegetation; over Europe and North America a small north-eastward movement of the Vegetation zones. 3864,1994,4,4,CLIMATE VARIATION AND EL-NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION EVENTS ON THE GREAT-BARRIER-REEF - 1958 TO 1987,Seasonal and inter-annual variation of several surface climate variables near the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are described for the 30-year period| 1958-1987. Large inter-annual variability of rainfall and river flow in coastal Queensland is linked to the aperiodic influences of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events. These events also affect sea surface temperature and wind fields| though the inter-annual variability of these variables is not as large as rainfall and river flow. The major impacts on waters of the GBR appear to be greatly increased freshwater inputs| reduced surface radiation (and thus light levels) and enhanced tropical cyclone activity during anti-El Nino events. El Nino events have less effect on climate of the GBR because they tend to maintain winter-like conditions. The effects of this background of high variability in the physical environment on reef processes must be considered when examining changes in such processes| changes in climate (e.g. due to global warming) or increases in anthropogenic impacts. 3944,1994,2,4,CLIMATE-CHANGE AND ALTERED RUNOFF IN THE SEMIARID PORTION OF MONO BASIN| CALIFORNIA,Mono Basin is a closed hydrologic unit and is highly sensitive to anticipated changes in temperature and precipitation related to global warming. Available water in the basin is limited and intensely managed. Cottonwood Creek and Bridgeport Creek drain the northern non-Sierra portion of the Mono Basin| and while these watersheds contribute relatively little of the total runoff into Mono Lake| their hydroclimatic conditions are representative of the majority of the Mono Basin drainage area. The hydrologic balance for these watersheds is modeled and selected climate change scenarios are simulated to determine the magnitude of change in water surplus resulting from altered temperature of +/-1-degrees and +/-2-degrees-C and precipitation changes of +/-10% and +/-20%. Changes in modeled water surplus expressed as a percentage of existing conditions range between 154% and 35% for Cottonwood Creek and 174% and 20% for Bridgeport Creek. Both watersheds display a greater response to a given change in precipitation than to a change in temperature. Bridgeport Creek is more sensitive than Cottonwood Creek to both precipitation and temperature change| owing to its more arid baseline conditions and lower elevation. 2631,1994,3,3,CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPLICATIONS FOR EUROPE - AN APPLICATION OF THE ESCAPE MODEL,Policy makers| charged both with identifying Possible national response strategies to climate change and with negotiating international conventions and protocols| need tools which enable them to estimate the implications for climate change of a wide range of policY options and which summarize the uncertainties surrounding global climate change. One such tool| recently constructed for the Environment Directorate of the Commission of the European Communities|1 consists of an interactive climate change impact assessment model called ESCAPE. This paper describes the model framework and illustrates the use of ESCAPE using a range of input scenarios reflecting different global policy| economic and technological futures. Three important characteristics of the global climate change problem are well illustrated: past emissions of greenhouse gases and the inertia of the global development path have committed the world to future warming irrespective of current and near-future policy interventions; the efficacy of a climate Policy implemented solely within the EC on altering the course of future climate change is very small; and the impacts of climate change on the economy and environment of the European Community differ markedly between northern and southern Europe.
3827,1994,2,3,CLIMATE-CHANGE| POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN,Simple methods for estimating potential evapotranspiration| requiring only temperature and day length data| are compared by reference to the results from the Penman method. A modification of the Blaney and Criddle method| in which the c parameter is calculated from seasonal regression equations with the mean monthly temperature as the independent variable| is proposed and tested. It is found to work sufficiently well in the area of interest| the Mediterranean Basin. For a network of 248 Mediterranean temperature stations| present-day seasonal mean potential evapotranspiration is estimated by this method. Using the results from four equilibrium-mode general circulation models| seasonal mean scenarios of potential evapotranspiration per 1-degree-C rise in global mean temperature caused by the enhanced greenhouse effect are presented. Comparison of scenarios of the change in potential evapotranspiration and scenarios of the change in precipitation indicates an unfavourable shift in moisture availability due to the enhanced greenhouse effect| throughout the Mediterranean region. 2610,1994,2,4,CLIMATE-INDUCED ANNUAL VARIATION IN CANOPY TREE GROWTH IN A COSTA-RICAN TROPICAL RAIN-FOREST,1 Annual growth was measured over eight consecutive years (1984-92) for saplings and adults of a diverse group of nonpioneer tree species in a lowland neotropical rain forest (La Selva Biological Station| Costa Rica). The study species included five emergents and one canopy species. 2 Adult diameter increments varied markedly from year to year for all species. In the year of highest growth for individual species| mean increments were 25-112% greater than in the year of least growth. These among-year differences were significant for five of the six species. 3 The variation in adult growth rates showed strong temporal concordance across species. For all six species| mean adult diameter increments were higher than average in 1985 and were lower than average in 1986 and 1988. 4 Marked year to year growth differences were also shown by juvenile trees of these species. In the class greater than or equal to 50 cm tall and less than or equal to 1 cm in diameter| mean diameter increments were 3-10 times greater in the year of highest growth than in the year of least growth. In each of the other two juvenile size classes (1-10 cm and 10-30 cm in diameter)| two species showed highly significant among-year growth variation. 5 Within all three juvenile size classes| the year to year growth variation showed significant temporal concordance across species. As for adults| 1985 and/or 1984 were among the two highest growth years. 6 That these patterns of interyear growth differences were shared across tree species and between saplings and adults demonstrates significant impacts of climatic variability on the productivity of this 'equable' ecosystem. 7 Annual rainfall was not correlated with the annual growth patterns. Although the two years of highest overall growth| 1984 and 1985| were exceptionally dry| adult trees of two species showed their greatest growth in one of the highest rainfall years (1990). 8 Recent studies suggest that photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) controls productivity of tropical wet forests. Recent data from La Selva show strong year to year variation in monthly PAR. Demonstration of a causal relationship will| however| require concurrent measurement of tree growth| PAR| and other climatic factors. 9 Marked temporal variation in tree growth in tropical wet forests will have pervasive consequences for many processes in these complex ecosystems. Moreover| the degree of climatic sensitivity found in this study indicates that tropical rain forests could be strongly affected by global climate change.
3833,1994,2,4,COASTAL STRUCTURES| WASTE MATERIALS AND FISHERY ENHANCEMENT,Current U.K. practice relating to the disposal of material at sea is reviewed. The use of stabilization technology relating to bulk waste materials| coal ash| oil ash and incinerator ash is discussed. The extension of this technology to inert minestone waste and tailings| contaminated dredged sediments and phosphogypsum is explored. Uses of stabilized wastes are considered in the areas of habitat restoration| coastal defense and fishery enhancement. It is suggested that rehabilitation of marine dump sites receiving loose waste such as pulverized fuel ash (PFA) could be enhanced by the continued dumping of the material but in a stabilized block form| so creating new habitat diversity. Global warming predictions include sea level rise and increased storm frequency. This is of particular concern along the southern and eastern coasts of the U.K. The emphasis of coastal defenses is changing from ''hard'' seawalls to ''soft'' options which include offshore barriers to reduce wave energy reaching the coast. Stabilized waste materials could be included in these and other marine constructions with possible economic benefit. Ministry of Agriculture| Fisheries and Food (MAFF)| the regulatory authority in England and Wales for marine disposal/construction| policy regarding marine structures and fishery enhancement is outlined. A case is made for the inclusion of fishery enhancement features in future coastal structures. Examples of the productivity of man-made structures are given. Slight modification of planned structures and inclusion of suitable habitat niches could allow for the cultivation of kelp| molluscs| crustacea and fish. 3798,1994,3,3,COMPUTER-SIMULATION OF A NOVEL CIRCULATING FLUIDIZED-BED PRESSURE-TEMPERATURE SWING ADSORBER FOR RECOVERING CARBON-DIOXIDE FROM FLUE-GASES,Carbon dioxide (CO2) is considered to be the major greenhouse gas contributing to global warming. While reducing fossil fuel consumption may provide the ultimate answer to CO2 emission problems| one of the short-term solutions is the separation and subsequent disposal of the CO2 from power plant and industrial flue gas streams. A novel| energy-efficient CO2 separation process known as the circulating fluidized bed pressure-temperature swing adsorber (CFB-PTSA) is simulated in this work. A hydrodynamic model for the gas and solids flow structure in the riser of circulating fluidized beds is combined with a competitive adsorption model for a carbon dioxide| nitrogen| oxygen mixture on a type X zeolite| as described by the ideal adsorbed solution theory| to predict the reactor performance. Simulations performed at various riser operating conditions and flue gas CO2 concentrations indicate that the CO2 recovery decreases with increasing concentration at a fixed solids circulation Bur| but the purity of the recovered product increases. Recoveries in the range of 65-88.5% and product purities of 75-90% CO2 are predicted. 3869,1994,3,3,CONTROLLING SUBSTANCE FLOWS - THE CASE OF CHLORINE,The contribution of chlorinated hydrocarbons (CHCs) to environmental problems in the Netherlands is discussed in an economic context. The economic interactions within the chlorine market| including the link to caustic soda production| are described| and PVC is taken as a case study. Key policy options are evaluated in terms of their potential for environmental improvement. It appears that 95% of CHC emissions causing environmental problems are due to dissipative applications. With respect to the specific problems of ozone depletion and global warming| only a small group of compounds is responsible for most of the impact. Moreover| economic interactions within the group of CHCs can strongly influence the net effect of environmental policy measures. Policies aimed at a reducing volume output of certain specific groups of CHCs will inevitably lead to trade-offs between environmental problems. The environmental impact of a hypothetical ban on CHCs is discussed in relation to the use of PVC as a sink for chlorine. Both these options appear to have drawbacks. Moreover| no absolute conclusion can be drawn until the environmental impact of CHC substitutes is known. 2652,1994,2,2,CORE AND PERIPHERAL-POPULATIONS AND GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE,Environmental conditions outside the periphery of a species' distribution prevent population persistence| hence peripheral populations live under conditions different from those of core populations. Peripheral areas are characterized by variable and unstable conditions| relative to core areas. Peripheral populations are expected to be genetically more variable| since the variable conditions induce fluctuating selection| which maintains high genetic diversity. Alternatively| due to marginal ecological conditions at the periphery| populations there are small and isolated; the within-population diversity is low| but the between-population genetic diversity is high due to genetic drift. It is also likely that peripheral populations evolve resistance to extreme conditions. Thus| peripheral populations rather than core ones may be resistant to environmental extremes and changes| such as global climate change induced by the anthropogenically emitted ''greenhouse gases''. They should be treated as a biogenetic resource used for rehabilitation and restoration of damaged ecosystems. Climatic transition zones are characterized by a high incidence of species represented by peripheral populations| and therefore should be conserved now as repositories of these resources| to be used in the future for mitigating undesirable effects of global climate change. Preliminary research revealed high phenotypic variability and high genetic diversity in peripheral populations relative to core populations of wild barley and the chukar partridge| respectively.
3832,1994,2,4,COTTON EVAPOTRANSPIRATION UNDER FIELD CONDITIONS WITH CO2 ENRICHMENT AND VARIABLE SOIL-MOISTURE REGIMES,The CO2 concentration of the atmosphere is predicted to double by the next century| and this is expected to increase significantly the growth and yield of many important agricultural crops. One consequence of larger and more vigorous plants may be increased crop evapotranspiration (ET) and irrigation water requirements. The objective of this work was to determine ET of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. cv. 'Deltapine 77') grown under ambient (about 370 mumol mol-1) and enriched (550 mumol mol-1) CO2 concentrations for both well-watered and water-stress irrigation managements. Studies were conducted in 1990 and 1991 within a large| drip-irrigated cotton field in central Arizona. Cotton ET was measured during the growing seasons using a soil water balance| based on neutron gauge soil water measurements. ET| for periods from 7 to 14 days| was not significantly different between ambient and enriched CO2 treatments at the 0.05 probability level| and the total seasonal ET for the CO2 treatments varied by 2% or less in either year. However| water-stress treatments| which were initiated on 3 July (day of year (DOY) 184) in 1990 and on 20 May (DOY 128) in 1991| had significantly lower (P < 0.05) ET than well-watered treatments starting at the end of July in 1990 and in early July in 1991 when the plants were about 75-90 days old. The result that CO2 enrichment to 550 mumol mol-1 did not significantly change the ET of cotton was consistent with the results of co-investigators who measured ET in the same experiments using stem flow gauges and an energy balance. This result implies that irrigation water use would not have to be increased to produce cotton in a future high-CO2 world. However| if a concomitant change in climate occurs| such as global warming| cotton evapotranspiration may change in response to the changed weather condition. 3860,1994,2,4,CURRENT CHANGES OF CLIMATE AND PERMAFROST IN THE ARCTIC AND SUB-ARCTIC OF RUSSIA,In northern Russia| from the time meteorological measurements began in the early nineteenth century to the end of that century| the air temperature was characterized by a general decrease (approximately 1 degrees C). It then rose up to the 1950s (by 0.6 degrees C). A subsequent slight fall in temperature lasted until the mid 1970s. Since then a further rise has been observed (0.6-0.9 degrees C). Temperatures in the upper horizons of permafrost over the last 10-20 years are in good agreement with recent global warming trends. For the European north-east during the period 1970-90 a rise in temperature at a depth of 3 m amounted to 0.6-0.7 degrees C on average. However| this rise is related not necessarily to a rise in air temperature| but more likely to an increase in snow cover. 3903,1994,4,4,DECADAL ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN VARIATIONS IN THE PACIFIC,Considerable evidence has emerged of a substantial decade-long change in the north Pacific atmosphere and ocean lasting from about 1976 to 1988. Observed significant changes in the atmospheric circulation throughout the troposphere revealed a deeper and eastward shifted Aleutian low pressure system in the winter half year which advected warmer and moister air along the west coast of North America and into Alaska and colder air over the north Pacific. Consequently| there were increases in temperatures and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the west coast of North America and Alaska but decreases in SSTs over the central north Pacific| as well as changes in coastal rainfall and streamflow| and decreases in sea ice in the Bering Sea. Associated changes occurred in the surface wind stress| and| by inference| in the Sverdrup transport in the north Pacific Ocean. Changes in the monthly mean flow were accompanied by a southward shift in the storm tracks and associated synoptic eddy activity and in the surface ocean sensible and latent heat fluxes. In addition to the changes in the physical environment| the deeper Aleutian low increased the nutrient supply as seen through increases in total chlorophyll in the water column| phytoplankton and zooplankton. These changes| along with the altered ocean currents and temperatures| changed the migration patterns and increased the stock of many fish species. A north Pacific (NP) index is defined to measure the decadal variations| and the temporal variability of the index is explored on daily| annual| interannual and decadal time scales. The dominant atmosphere-ocean relation in the north Pacific is one where atmospheric changes lead SSTs by one to two months. However| strong ties are revealed with events in the tropical Pacific| with changes in tropical Pacific SSFs leading SSTs in the north Pacific by three months. Changes in the storm tracks in the north Pacific help to reinforce and maintain the anomalous circulation in the upper troposphere. A hypothesis is put forward outlining the tropical and extratropical realtionships which stresses the role of tropical forcing but with important feedbacks in the extratropics that serve to emphasize the decadal relative to interannual time scales. The Pacific decadal timescale variations are linked to recent changes in the frequency and intensity of El Nino versus La Nina events but whether climate change associated with ''global warming'' is a factor is an open question. 3917,1994,3,3,DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION OF A SOLAR-ELECTRIC VEHICLE,Recent concerns relating to global warming caused by greenhouse gases| coupled with a growing awareness of the limited available resources of fossil fuels| have spurred an interest in alternative energy powered vehicles. This paper describes the analysis| development| and testing of an aerodynamic vehicle powered by photovoltaic cells. The primary components of the vehicle are the composite material body| the aluminum space frame| the wheel hubs and front suspension assembly| the drive train and the electrical system. The frame was designed using finite element analysis with the components of the frame modeled as beam elements. The body| designed to have a very high strength-to- weight ratio| was of graphite/Kevlar/Nomex sandwich construction. Testing was carried out using the three-point bend test to determine the optimal sandwich cross-sectional configuration. The design of the front suspension| the wheel hubs| and the power transmission are also discussed. The electrical system| based on a monocrystalline photovoltaic cell assembly| and silver-zinc storage cells| is also described. Finally| results of the optimization routine developed are also described. 3918,1994,4,2,DETECTING CLIMATIC-CHANGE SIGNALS - ARE THERE ANY FINGERPRINTS,Projected changes in the Earth's climate can be driven from a combined set of forcing factors consisting of regionally heterogeneous anthropogenic and natural aerosols and land use changes| as well as global-scale influences from solar variability and transient increases in human-produced greenhouse gases. Thus| validation of climate model projections that are driven only by increases in greenhouse gases can be inconsistent when one attempts the validation by looking for a regional or time-evolving ''fingerprint'' of such projected changes in real climatic data. Until climate models are driven by time-evolving| combined| multiple| and heterogeneous forcing factors| the best global climatic change ''fingerprint'' will probably remain a many-decades average of hemispheric-to global-scale trends in surface air temperatures. Century-long global warming (or cooling) trends of 0.5-degrees-C appear to have occurred infrequently over the past several thousand years-perhaps only once or twice a millennium| as proxy records suggest. This implies an 80 to 90 percent heuristic likelihood that the 20th-century 0.5 +/- 0.2-degrees-C warming trend is not a wholly natural climatic fluctuation. 3819,1994,4,3,DETERMINATION OF NITROUS-OXIDE IN SOIL,Nitrous oxide is one of the greenhouse gases which together with carbon dioxide| methane and chlorofluorocarbons has an influence on global warming. The average increase of atmospheric nitrous oxide has been estimated at about 0.2 similar to 0.3% per year. It is impotant| therefore| that sources and emission rates of nitrous oxide are investigated all over the world. In this work| the nitrous oxide concentration in the soil at 80 cm in depth at 30 sites was investigated in the Tokyo metropolitan area. As a result| it was found that the concentration of nitrous oxide was higher in the soil air than in the atmosphere for all of the sampling sites. 3818,1994,3,4,DETERMINATION OF THE INFRARED CROSS-SECTIONS AND GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS OF 1|1|2-TRIFLUOROETHANE (HFC-143),The Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) of CH2F-CHF2 (HFC-143) have been estimated for different time horizons. Radiative forcings associated with this CFC alternative have been derived relative to CFC-11 and CO2 by introducing laboratory measured absorption cross sections into a coupled chemical-radiative model. 3909,1994,3,4,DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH-EFFICIENCY DOMESTIC REFRIGERATOR USING CFC SUBSTITUTES,Besides the values of the ozone depletion and global warming potentials| energy consumption is another important index to be considered in developing a refrigeration system using CFC substitutes. Many investigators have indicated that unless the original refrigeration system is correspondingly adjusted when using CFC substitutes| the energy efficiency ratio (EER) of the system will decrease. In this paper| the reasons for a decrease in EER are analysed theoretically| and some proposals for increasing EER are put forward. These proposals are used to develop a domestic refrigerator charged with a non-azeotropic mixture of HCFC22/HFC152a as the substitute for the original working fluid| CFC 1 2. The results show that the EER value of the refrigerator charged with this refrigerant mixture is increased by 6.5% compared with that of the same refrigerator charged with CFC12. 2648,1994,2,4,DISSOLVED-OXYGEN MODEL FOR REGIONAL LAKE ANALYSIS,A deterministic| one-dimensional| unsteady dissolved oxygen (D.O.) model has been formulated to simulate summer D.O. conditions (stratification) in a wide range of lakes of the north central United States and to study potential impacts of global climate change. The simulation includes contributions by photosynthesis| plant respiration| reaeration| biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and sedimentary oxygen demand (SOD) as source and sink terms. The one-dimensional vertical oxygen transport equation is solved in conjunction with the heat transport equation in daily time steps beginning 1 March and ending 31 October. Lake morphometry| trophic status and daily weather parameters have to be specified as input| and daily profiles of water temperature and dissolved oxygen are obtained as output. The model finds the onset of summer-stratification from initially isothermal and constant D.O. conditions. Trophic status is related to Secchi depth| phytoplankton (chlorophyll-alpha) concentrations| BOD and SOD. Field data from seven lakes (11 years) have been used to calibrate and validate the D.O. model. The simulations for dimictic lakes with strong stratification are better than for weakly stratified polymictic lakes| i.e. the model works better for deep lakes than for shallow lakes. The average standard errors for calibration and validation are 1.4 and 1.9 mg D.O. l(-1)| respectively. The temperature simulations| especially the mixed-layer depth| affect the D.O. simulation results. A sensitivity analysis to model coefficients was also conducted. The model is most sensitive to sedimentary oxygen demand (SOD). Twenty seven classes of lakes (3 depths X 3 areas X 3 trophic states) in the north central U.S. were analyzed with the model. Simulated mean daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the epilimnion are near saturation| those in the hypolimnion vary considerably depending particularly on length of time since the onset of stratification and the sedimentary oxygen demand.
2639,1994,3,4,DISTRIBUTING COSTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE,The problem of global climate change links the issues of energy utilization| economic development| environmental degradation| and equity on a planetary scale. Questions concerning the scale and timing of the impact of continuously increasing emissions of greenhouse gases remain. A set of approaches has emerged which claim to objectively demonstrate that nothing or very little should be done to address this problem. These approaches rely on standard economic theory and analytical methods to reach their conclusion that significant worldwide action is unnecessary. In the authors' view| however| these approaches contain biases which place an exceptionally high value on maintaining the status quo of global patterns of resource consumption and distribution of wealth. When utilized to analyze various policy options| this bias results in a determination that equity considerations are too costly and may impede technological and economic progress. As an alternative| the authors propose an approach based on a principle of equity in atmospheric resource utilization
3881,1994,2,4,DISTRIBUTION AND ECOLOGY OF CIGUATERA FISH POISONING IN FLORIDA| WITH EMPHASIS ON THE FLORIDA-KEYS,Ciguatera fish poisoning is a disease causing human health problems for persons eating fishes from tropical seas or for extra-tropical residents who have eaten fishes imported from tropical seas. Of the estimated 1|300 cases of ciguatera in south Florida| probably 10% are from fishes caught in south Florida waters; the rest are purchased from restaurants or seafood markets in south Florida who sell fish species which are potentially ciguatoxic. Many fish species are misidentified by restaurateurs or are from non-Florida sources| especially the Bahamas. This paper documents the (a) species| (b) locations| and (c) size of fishes which have caused ciguatera intoxications in the Florida Keys| as well as other locations along the Florida east coast. Evidence is presented from other tropical areas that (1) increases in sea surface temperature from global warming| (2) eutrophication from human activities| and (3) anthropogenic alterations such as dredging| filling| and coral reef destruction may increase the incidence of ciguatera in the future in the Florida Keys and elsewhere. 3809,1994,2,4,DO ROSS RIVER AND DENGUE VIRUSES POSE A THREAT TO NEW-ZEALAND,Aim. To determine the prevalence of antibodies to Ross River and dengue viruses in sera from New Zealand residents and travellers and to assess the potential of local mosquitoes to act as vectors of these viruses. Method. Serum specimens from several population groups were examined by haemagglutination-inhibition and neutralisation tests for antibodies to Ross River and dengue viruses between 1975 and 1993. During this period dengue was active in South East Asia| Australia and the Pacific| and a major epidemic of Ross River infection occurred in the Pacific. Two New Zealand mosquito species were tested for their ability to transmit by bite after they had been fed or injected with these viruses. Results. Ten percent of 1869 sera from patients suspected of contracting dengue| and 43% of 183 patients suspected of contracting Ross River virus| while overseas| were antibody positive. Many patients showed antibody rises which indicated that they were probably viraemic on entry to this country. Dengue viruses were isolated in Dunedin from two patients with dengue haemorrhagic fever contracted overseas. Antibody studies of persons who had not travelled outside New Zealand provided no evidence of local transmission of these viruses. Two local mosquitoes| Aedes notoscriptus from the Auckland area| and Aedes australis from the Otago area| were able to transmit one or both these viruses under laboratory conditions. Conclusions. The serological studies showed that both Ross River and dengue viruses have probably been introduced into New Zealand by viraemic travellers on many occasions. Although some local mosquitoes can transmit these viruses in the laboratory| there is no evidence of local spread of virus from these imported cases. Changing environmental conditions such as global warming with concomitant effects on vector distribution| increasingly rapid air travel by viraemic persons and the accidental introduction of new vector mosquitoes| particularly Aedes albopictus| could pose a threat in view of the high percentage of New Zealand residents with no protective antibody. 2623,1994,2,3,EARLY SELECTION OF BLACK SPRUCE SEEDLINGS AND GLOBAL CHANGE - WHICH GENOTYPES SHOULD WE FAVOR,We investigated the effects of both soil fertility and predicted changes in climate on the performance of different families of black spruce| Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.| during the first growing season. The results were used to examine whether reforestation programs should consider changing their preferred family lines in anticipation of altered performance given global climate change. We grew seedlings of 16 open-pollinated maternal families of black spruce under phytotron conditions simulating present and mid-21 st century climatic conditions during the growing season. The realistic| simulated future climate included both elevated CO2 levels and seasonally appropriate increases in mean daily temperature. To explore the dependence of climatic responses on site quality| seedlings were irrigated with solutions having either 5 or 100 mg/L of nitrogen. The lower nitrogen level represents a poor site for black spruce growth and survival| but the higher level provides ample nitrogen. We also recorded seed size for each seedling to evaluate the degree to which maternal investments might buffer responses to future climate and fertility during the first year on the seedbed. Seedling survival and growth increased both under the future climate regime and with nitrogen fertilization. The two factors interacted synergistically| with nitrogen enrichment significantly enhancing the positive effects of the future climate regime. Nitrogen-poor conditions| however| did not preclude a positive seedling response to the future climate. Our results indicate that seedling survival and height growth are highly dependent upon initial seed mass: larger seeds produced more vigorous 1 st-yr seedlings. The families differed in seed mass| seed germination| and seedling survival and growth| but their relative performances did not vary significantly among the treatments. These results suggest that black spruce families selected for rapid growth under present conditions will also do well in the future| at least in terms of early establishment and performance on sites regenerated by seeding.
2627,1994,2,4,ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE - A RESEARCH FRAMEWORK,Large-scale environmental research efforts are conducted under frameworks that provide a common basis for evaluating research in many diverse fields. Such frameworks should be subjected to critical review to determine if they meet crucial expectations. In the case of the US Global Change Research Program. we perceive that most research follows a framework that we define as the predictive model framework. We believe this framework is insufficient for resolving the unprecedented predicaments posed by global change. We recommend a complementary framework| the system response framework| which directs research toward useful indicators of change rather than precise predictions. We further argue that| even if research is complementary and effective under the two frameworks| conclusive results prior to decisions should not be expected. The burden of proof must itself be a continuing topic of open discourse and inquiry.
3942,1994,4,3,ECONOMIC GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS,A reformulation of global warming potentials is propounded| that combines the time-horizon and discounting definitions| and covers both ordinary atmospheric forcing (via greenhouse gases) and its rate-of-change. Insofar as GWPs are used to guide investment and socioeconomic choices| there is merit in adopting cost-benefit techniques. The parametric equivalence of the two definitions applies for the ordinary atmospheric forcing; but for its rat-of-change| only the discounting definition gives realistic results| as shown in application to methane| a short-lived greenhouse gas. 3872,1994,4,4,EDGE-DETECTION ALGORITHMS FOR 2-DIMENSIONAL ECOLOGICAL DATA,The widely advocated statement that ecotone movement may be useful in studies of the impacts of global warming implies not only that ecotones exist but that they can be delineated spatially. With sampled field data| the accuracy of the detected ecotone is related to the data type and its spatiotemporal resolution. In the present study| I introduce two edge detection algorithms for regularly (lattice-wombling) and irregularly (triangulation-wombling) two-dimensional sampled data. I investigate the reliability of these algorithms in detecting potential ecotones using simulated vegetation data that follow the individualistic| continuum-gradient| and community-type patterns. Ecotones were defined quantitatively as long narrow regions of high rates of change. Under this definition| significant ecotones were found mostly in the community-type patterns using either of the edge detection algorithms (lattice-wombling or triangulation-wombling) and a systematic or random sampling design| respectively. 3804,1994,2,4,EFFECT OF ELEVATED-TEMPERATURES ON CARBON-DIOXIDE EXCHANGE IN PICEA-RUBENS,We examined some of the physiological reasons that may underlie past and expected future migrations of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) by evaluating the effects of high temperatures on photosynthesis and respiration of trees growing on Whiteface Mountain| NY. At temperatures of 35-40-degrees-C| the trees exhibited a zero or negative carbon balance. Higher temperatures resulted in cellular disorganization and death. Temperatures around 30-degrees-C resulted in reduced CO2 uptake| a condition that could decrease future reproductive output and competitive stature. We conclude that thermal intolerance explains| at least in part| the absence of red spruce at low elevations and latitudes where temperatures of greater-than-or-equal-to 30-degrees-C occur. We suggest that the thermosensitivity of this species is important with respect to global climate trends and migration patterns. 3902,1994,2,3,EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON INDIAN MONSOON SIMULATED WITH A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL,The impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate of Indian subcontinent and its variability is studied using the output from a time-dependent greenhouse warming simulation as well as a reference control experiment performed with the Hamburg global coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model. This model demonstrates substantial skill in simulating the present-day climate and its interannual variability over the monsoon onset date of the SW-monsoon over about 20 degrees N inferred from the control run is similar to the observed onset date. With the exception of temperature| the projected changes in impact-related climatic variables over a period of 100 years are within the range of inter-annual variability in the monsoon region. There is no clear evidence for a significant change in the seasonal-mean monsoon rainfall or the variability of the monsoon rainfall in scenario A experiment. region. The India along 3862,1994,2,4,EFFECTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON COMMERCIAL BUILDING ENERGY DEMAND,Most of the studies of the impact of global warming on energy use have employed aggregated utility models and have found that global warming would produce about a 2% decrease in heating requirements per 1-degrees-C and comparable increases in cooling requirements. The one significant exception is a German study that utilized building energy models and determined that the increase in cooling would be somewhat larger| due to the effects of increased humidity with atmospheric warming. This study utilizes the DOE2 building energy model on a prototype commercial building and demonstrates that increased humidity could be a significant factor in total building energy use| particularly in the more humid parts of the United States. The study also demonstrates that the effect can be overcome with advanced building designs. 2629,1994,2,4,EFFECTS OF CO(2) ENRICHMENT ON WHOLE-PLANT CARBON BUDGET OF SEEDLINGS OF FAGUS-GRANDIFOLIA AND ACER-SACCHARUM IN LOW IRRADIANCE,Carbon exchange rates (CER) and whole-plant carbon balances of beech (Fagus grandifolia) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) were compared for seedlings grown under low irradiance to determine the effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on shade-tolerant seedlings of co-dominant species. Under contemporary atmospheric CO2| photosynthetic rate per unit mass of beech was lower than for sugar maple| and atmospheric CO2 enrichment enhanced photosynthesis for beech only. Aboveground respiration per unit mass decreased with CO2 enrichment for both species while root respiration per unit mass decreased for sugar maple only. Under contemporary atmospheric CO2| beech had lower C uptake per plant than sugar maple| while C losses per plant to nocturnal aboveground and root respiration were similar for both species. Under elevated CO2| C uptake per plant was similar for both species| indicating a significant relative increase in whole-seedling CER with CO2 enrich ment for beech but not for sugar maple. Total C loss per plant to aboveground respiration was decreased for beech only because increase in sugar maple leaf mass counterbalanced a reduction in respiration rates. Carbon loss to root respiration per plant was not changed by CO2 enrichment for either species. However| changes in maintenance respiration cost and nitrogen level suggest changes in tissue composition with elevated CO2. Beech had a greater net daily C gain with CO2 enrichment than did sugar maple in contrast to a lower one under contemporary CO2. Elevated CO2 preferentially enhances the net C balance of beech by increasing photosynthesis and reducing respiration cost. In all cases| the greatest C lost was by roots| indicating the importance of belowground biomass in net C gain. Relative growth rate estimated from biomass accumulation was not affected by CO2 enrichment for either species possibly because of slow growth under low light. This study indicates the importance of direct effects of CO2 enrichment when predicting potential change in species distribution with global climate change.
3906,1994,2,2,EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HURRICANE-INDUCED FLOODING,Global simulation models used to predict climate change typically have resolutions too coarse for resolving small drainage basins| creating a major obstacle to evaluating the hydrologic impacts of climate variability. The writers circumvent this difficulty by using a physical model for severe hurricanes to derive changes in hurricane rainfall under a predicted global warming. The modified rainfall is then transferred to a linked hydrologic-hydrodynamic model to compute the impact of global warming on hurricane-induced flooding in a susceptible watershed. As an example| using simulations of tropical| doubled-CO2 climate change| the hurricane model predicts a 40% precipitation increase for severe hurricanes affecting southeastern Florida. The 40% increase is assumed for a 100-year| three-day event used for flood-management planning in South Florida and applied to the Basin Runoff and Streamflow Simulation (BRASS) model of the Western C-11 drainage system. The increased precipitation provokes substantially greater flooding that could negate most of the benefits of present water-management practices in this basin. 2630,1994,2,4,ELEVATED CO2 AND TEMPERATURE ALTER RECRUITMENT AND SIZE HIERARCHIES IN C-3 AND C-4 ANNUALS,In order to understand the implications of changes in global CO2 concentrations and temperature for the growth and fitness of individual plants| performance must be investigated in relation to the performance of other plants within a population. In this study we examined patterns of recruitment| mortality| and size structure of monospecific stands in response to ambient (400 mu L/L) and elevated CO2 concentrations (700 mu L/L) across three temperature regimes; 18 degrees| 28 degrees| and 38 degrees C. We created experimental populations of two annual plants that differ in their photosynthetic pathway and water use patterns: Abutilon theophrasti (C-3) and Amaranthus retroflexus (C-4). The effects of CO2| temperature| and their interactions on population structure were complex and species dependent. For both species increasing temperature resulted in higher germination and faster initial growth rates. These initial temperature responses increased the intensity and role of competition in determining stand size and structure. Postemergence responses to elevated CO2 differed markedly between the two species. For Abutilon| the C-3 species| serf-thinning and the mean biomass of the survivors increased under elevated CO2. For Amaranthus| survivorship| but not growth| increased under elevated CO2 conditions. We attribute differences in response between species not only to photosynthetic pathway| but also to differences in the onset of competition mediated through differences in plant form and in resource uptake and deployment. The patterns of stand development in response to CO2 and temperature suggest that the effects of changing CO2 and temperature may be understood within mechanistically based models of resource use. Temperature regulates the rate of resource use and the onset of interference among plants| while CO2 functions both as a resource and a resource regulator. Although mortality was concentrated later in stand development for Abutilon than Amaranthus| overall patterns of stand size and structure were similar for both species; mortality and size inequalities increased with increasing temperature and CO2. Because size is often correlated with fecundity| an increase in size hierarchies in response to elevated CO2| in conjunction with a decrease in survivorship| may result in a smaller effective population size. Our ability to predict changes in effective population size due to changing size hierarchies alone| however| should also consider developmental shifts in response to elevated CO2 that may result in| as in this study| a decrease in the minimum size at the onset of flowering.
3907,1994,4,2,ESTIMATION OF ENERGY INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF ENERGY-CONSUMPTION BASED ON INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE,The environmental problems are becoming more critical issues these days. The global warming problem caused by carbon dioxide is serious| because energy supply for modem industry depends on the usage of fossil fuel. Renewable energy usage is expected to be one of the key technology to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide. Energy systems| however| to gather the renewable energies are tend to be large due to the low energy density| and require large amount of initial input energy. The assessment of the amount of energy to produce equipment and to construct renewable energy system is essential to evaluate the efficiency of systems as energy producer. In this paper| energy intensity is evaluated using Input-Output table and several topics on the use of the table are discussed. The estimation of energy intensity gave reasonable values for Japanese Input-Output table of 1985. In the analysis of energy intensity using Input-Output table| the evaluation of electricity has several alternatives. A method is proposed to modify the structural matrix to manipulate electricity in a unified way. The effect of fixed capital depreciation is considered| which is not counted in normal way of Input-Output analysis. The result shows that the change in considering fixed capital is not so large for energy consumption structure in Japan. Two graphic methods to analyze the structure of Input-Output table are also considered. The inverse matrix coefficient that is the total sum of production to supply unit final demand| is plotted in a special graph to analyze the structure of energy flow from petroleum to automobiles and other products. The effect of transportation sector on the energy flow is analyzed by calculating and plotting inverse matrix coefficient from modified structural matrix. This paper suggests that Input-Output table is useful for energy analysis.
2613,1994,2,4,ESTIMATION OF LOCAL AND AREAL DROUGHT REFLECTING CLIMATE-CHANGE,A methodology is developed and applied to eastern Nebraska to estimate the statistical properties of a meteorological drought index under climate change. The approach is based on the analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns (CP)| followed by a stochastic linkage between daily CP types and daily local hydrometeorological quantities used to calculate the drought index. The methodology is illustrated with a common rainfall deficit-based drought index| the Bhalme-Mooley Drought Index (BMDI). Historical data and General Circulation Model (GCM) output of daily CP corresponding to the present (1xCO(2)) and doubled atmospheric CO2 (2xCO(2)) concentration are taken as inputs| Time series of both local and areal BMDI are simulated and their statistics are calculated. Under the dry continental climate of eastern Nebraska a highly variable spatial response to climate change has been obtained. Most of the local and the areal average drought indices reflect a somewhat wetter and a more variable climate under the 2xCO(2) conditions. The results may be sensitive to the GCM used. The methodology can be used elsewhere to estimate statistically the impact of global climate change on local/regional drought.
3908,1994,3,4,EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONCERNING CFC AND HCFC SUBSTITUTION,Four years ago| during the ASHRAE 1989 CFC Technology Conference| a presentation was given on European research into CFC substitution (CFC Research Activities in Europe/CFC Research Programmes in Western Europe)| which has been published in this journal. In August 1993| a follow-up conference| entitled 'ASHRAE/NIST Refrigerants Conference - R-22/R-502 Alternatives'| was held in order to discuss in particular substitutes for R502 and R22. Again| a presentation concerning European research on CFC and HCFC substitution was given and will be published in this journal. It will on the one hand| as a follow-up| deal with the progress of the research programmes listed four years ago and on the other hand mention new research programmes which have been established since then. The research projects have not only been influenced by the problem of ozone depletion but also by the growing discussion on global warming during the last four years. Therefore| the new projects deal especially with the application of old natural fluids in refrigeration and air-conditioning systems. 3905,1994,2,3,EVALUATING THE TYPE AND STATE OF ALASKA TAIGA FORESTS WITH IMAGING RADAR FOR USE IN ECOSYSTEM MODELS,Changes in the seasonal CO2 flux of the boreal forests may result from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated global warming patterns. To monitor this potential change| a combination of information derived from remote sensing data| including forest type and growing season length| and ecophysiological models which predict the CO2 fluX and its seasonal amplitude based on meteorological data| are required. In this paper we address the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to map forest type and monitor canopy and soil freeze/thaw| which define the growing season for conifers| and leaf on/off| which defines the growing season for deciduous species. Aircraft SAR (AIRSAR) data collected in March 1988 during a freeze/thaw event are used to generate species maps and to determine the sensitivity of SAR to canopy freeze/thaw transitions. These data are also used to validate a microwave scattering model which is then used to determine the sensitivity of SAR to leaf on/off transitions and soil freeze/thaw. Finally| a CO2| flux algorithm is presented which utilizes SAR data and an ecophysiological model to estimate CO2 flux. CO2 flux MaPS are generated| from which areal estimates Of CO2 flux are derived. 3940,1994,5,4,EVOLUTIONARY MORPHOLOGICAL-CHANGES IN THE NEW GENUS DUOFORISA - IMPLICATION FOR CLASSIFICATION AND HABITAT OF THE UNILOCULAR FORAMINIFERA,Unlike other unilocular foraminifera| the new genus Duoforisa from the Late Oligocene to Early Miocene possesses a kidney-shaped test with two apertures on its distal ends. It contains two distinct and successional species| both new| and differentiated by their apertural details. In Duoforisa rima the apertures are slit-like| and become radial in the descendant D. diducta. Intermediate forms have transitional apertural configurations between the slit type and radial type. accompanied also by a change of the test outline from subtriangular to compactly U-shaped. The evolution of the lineage occurred during a period of enhanced upwelling in the Early Miocene and it was terminated just before the global warming at the Early-Middle Miocene boundary. This example suggests evolution of the unilocular foraminifera through successional morphological changes in test shape and in the aperture. Unilocular taxa have tended to flourish or speciate in cool or upwelling environments. Their contraction in the latest Early Miocene to early Middle Miocene was probably due to global warming and well oxygenated conditions which were widespread in the neritic domains of southern Australia.
3876,1994,2,5,EXTREME MINIMUM WINTER TEMPERATURES IN OHIO,The Extreme Minimum Winter Temperature (EMWT) is the coldest temperature recorded each winter at a given weather station. This variable is a measure of winter temperature severity. EMWT influences the geographic distribution of plants| and is a prime control for the production of some fruit crops grown in Ohio. EMWT values are often used to map plant hardiness zones| but climatic variables rarely remain constant over time| and plant hardiness zones could shift significantly if the climate of ohio changes and there is a change in EMWTs. EMWTs from 89 weather stations in ohio were analyzed to determine spatial patterns and time trends. Summary statistics of EMWTs were tabulated and mean EMWT was mapped at a large scale. Linear and polynomial regression were utilized to examine the time series. EMWTs have not warmed during the climatic record of this variable. There does not appear to be a link between EMWTs in Ohio and the increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. The present study demonstrates the need for more research in applied climatology based on observed climate records| not obscured by the assumptions of the global warming paradigm.
3921,1994,3,2,FOREST-FIRE EMISSIONS IN PORTUGAL - A CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING,A forecast of expected evolution of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Portugal between 1988 and 2010 is presented. Predictions show that CO2 emissions will almost double in the next twenty years. The equivalent potential CO2 emissions from nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) and volatile organic compounds (VOC)| for a time horizon of 20 years| is also presented NO(x) and VOC emissions seem to make a significant contribution to the global warming potential of Portuguese emissions. Estimates Of CO2 emissions due to forest fires have been made| oriented towards the study of the Portuguese contribution to the global warming. If the burned area exceeds 100000 ha this contribution could reach 7% of the total Portuguese CO2 emissions. The global warming potential of Portuguese forest fire emissions were also calculated The climate change predicted to Portugal could be responsible for an increase in the forest fires and consequently for a greater contribution of its emissions to the total values. It was concluded that it is important to quantify emissions of the greenhouse gases| including the contribution of forest fire emissions| not only in Portugal| but in all the Southern European countries. 3854,1994,3,3,FOSSIL-FUEL AND GREENHOUSE-GAS MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES,The world has become highly alerted to the global warming problem. The major greenhouse gas is CO2| large quantities of which are produced by combustion of fossil fuels; coal being a major contributor. Whereas a great deal of effort is being expended on the science of climate change| very little work has gone into mitigation technologies. This is now changing. The options include improved energy utilization efficiency| fuel switching| non-fossil energy sources| and pre- and post-combustion removal and disposal of CO2 from central power stations. Another approach is the pre-combustion conversion of fossil fuel to a carbon-rich fraction and a hydrogen-rich fraction; storing the carbon-rich and only utilizing the hydrogen-rich fraction. By coprocessing with the biomass| the CO2 emission from fossil fuel can be reduced to negligible values. Assessment of these systems is discussed. 2635,1994,2,4,FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE ON MANGROVE ECOSYSTEMS,Ecological assessment represents a current approach to bridge scientific research and knowledge to the information needs in development of policy and management decisions. Mangrove ecosystems were chosen as a representative community type to examine available knowledge and develop approaches to detection and evaluation of the ecological responses to elements of global climate change. Risk assessments and ecological assessments have some parallel procedures and we briefly compare some common objectives and approaches. The focus of the discussions is in the context of ecological assessment| gathering and evaluating of data most relevant to the south Florida mangroves and associated habitats| and the framework to combine diverse sets of scientific data for the broader or more generalized perspectives and long-term information needs of policy formulation.
3858,1994,4,4,GLOBAL AND HEMISPHERIC TEMPERATURE TRENDS - UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO INADEQUATE SPATIAL SAMPLING,Long-term (50 to 100 years) and short-term (10 to 30 years) global and hemispheric trends of temperature have an inherent unknown error due to incomplete and nonrandom spatial sampling. A number of experiments have been conducted to help quantify the potential magnitude of this error. The analysis includes the errors introduced into the climate record because of both incomplete global coverage and inadequate sampling within those areas presumed to have adequate observations. In these experiments it is found that the uncertainty in calculating historical temperature trends is dependent upon the pattern of temperature change| the method of treating the effect of nonrandom spatial sampling| and the time and length over which the trend is calculated but is relatively insensitive to the random errors associated with estimating regional-scale (grid cell size) temperature anomalies. Results imply that the errors associated with century-scale trends of temperature are probably an order of magnitude smaller than the observed global warming of nearly 0.5-degrees-C per 100 years since the late nineteenth century. The errors in estimates of decadal temperature trends are found to be large relative to century-scale trends and are unreliable during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Even during the recent decade of the 1980s| the area-averaging techniques used in some analyses could be improved by addressing the over-sampling of Northern Hemisphere (especially over land) relative to the rest of the globe. Otherwise| significant positive biases are likely during the 1980s. These biases may have contributed to the reported differences between in situ surface and space-based temperatures during the 1980s. The rather encouraging results with respect to the magnitude of the spatial sampling errors associated with the calculation of long-term trends beginning in the nineteenth century cast a positive light on efforts aimed at extending the proxy and observed global temperature record further back in time| despite limited geographic coverage. 3912,1994,4,3,GLOBAL CHANGE MODELS - A PHYSICAL PERSPECTIVE,The World Climate Research Programme has the dual objectives of determining the extent of climate predictability and the influence of human activities on climate. To meet these objectives| the WCRP has instituted a set of research programs focusing on specific aspects of the physical climate system. Global climate models are at the core of the WCRP. Models provide a structural framework around which to organize research; they are used to identify knowledge gaps and to assimilate data; and they are used for prediction and simulation. Time scales of interest stretch from those of numerical weather prediction| through interannual variability to decadal climate change. As the time scale of interest expands we must include more and more components of the climate system. Physically-based global climate models will also be the framework upon which to build full global change models. Modelling and other research activities internationally coordinated by the WCRP have provided the basis for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of global warming and the proposed international centre for climate prediction research. A major thrust of the WCRP is to reduce the uncertainties in simulations of climatic response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. There is need for a continuous interaction between the modelling community and those scientists studying the processes and data. Through international coordination and national contributions considerable progress has been made over the past decade and we anticipate similar success in the future. 3901,1994,3,3,GLOBAL CLIMATE AND ENERGY-SYSTEMS,Consensus exists that further environmental pollution and climate change could be prevented if energy systems' emissions are significantly reduced. But energy will remain one of the most active driving forces of social and economic progress over the whole 21st century. This predetermines the necessity and expediency for long-term energy studies. Global energy systems recently have started the transition path from systems based on fossil fuels| with limited and exhaustible resources| to systems using inexhaustible or renewable energy resources (fission and fusion| solar| wind| biomass| geothermal| etc.). It is difficult to foresee exactly how long this transition period will last| because the rates of transition will depend on many factors - of which the most important will be energy costs at the end-user and the systems' impacts on humans| biosphere| and natural environment. Two global energy scenarios (Dynamic-as-Usual and Enhanced Energy Efficiency and Conservation| with several options for each of the scenarios) until the middle of the next century are discussed in the paper. According to energy projections| energy demand in developed countries is likely to stay at the current level over the whole time period or may even slightly decline (it is quite possible that in some countries with very high per capita energy demand| the reduction of primary energy consumption will start even in the near future). The major part of the energy demand growth worldwide will be justified by the needs of developing countries to improve their economic and social position. It is expected that primary energy demand in developing countries will increase by a factor of 3-5 compared to today's level. The world primary energy mix will very much depend on development strategies applied over the next 50-60 years. If a strategy for massive prevention of global warming is to be required| the share of fossil fuels in primary energy consumption must be remarkably reduced (even down to 25% in case of a 60% CO2 emission reduction until the middle of the next century as stated by IPCC). Electricity keeps its position as a most universal energy carrier in all sectors of end-use| including transportation. Environmental protection goals can be achieved with the most effective and less expensive ways through applying electric technologies. Therefore| a strong growth rate for electricity generation is projected in both regions - developed and developing countries. Even if radical steps are taken to prevent the impact of energy systems on global climate| the CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere will not be stopped. At the best| we can speak only of postponing the doubling of carbon concentration in the atmosphere for a couple of decades in the longer future. Parallel efforts within other spheres of the human activity are required: first of all| to stop deforestation of tropical forests| enhance reforestation| and reduce emissions of other greenhouse gases which in total contribute about 50% to global warming. The transition to an accelerated CO2 reduction policy will require about 4-5% of the world GNP spent on investments within energy systems| which is not significantly higher than today. However| the structure of investments must be drastically changed from energy production to energy conservation and savings. Large concerns exist in finding capital to provide these investments in developing countries because it will be hardly possible for them to accomplish energy/climate programs without strong assistance from the developed world. It would be naive to think that a global energy and climate change policy could be introduced without massive obligatory measures at the national and global levels- These measures should include policy actions| marketing guidelines| educational programs. financial mechanisms. and technology transfer. The realization of such a policy will require the creation of new institutional frameworks| with concerted efforts of all players on the international and national energy markets. However| there are still many unsettled questions that remain in global warming and in looking for effective response strategies. 2645,1994,4,4,GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE IN THE INSTRUMENTAL PERIOD,The instrumental period of climate history began in the 18th century with the commencement of routine weather observations at fixed sites. Estimates of global-mean climate (eg. temperature and precipitation) were not possible| however| until the establishment of extensive observing networks midway through the 19th century. This paper reviews our knowledge of global climate change in the instrumental period Time series of global-mean temperature and precipitation are examined and a comparison is made between two independent 30-year climatologies: 1931-60 and 1961-90. Examples are also provided of regional-scale climate changes. Such assessments are important for two reasons. First| they establish the variability of climate on the time-scale of decades| time-scales upon which it is reasonable to plan economic and socio-political activities. Second| and more specifically| they enable us to quantify the magnitude of global-mean climate change which has occurred over this period Such detailed diagnostic climate information is a necessary| although not sufficient| prerequisite for the detection of global-scale warming which may have occurred due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Some attention is given to explanations of the observed changes in global-mean climate.
3843,1994,4,3,GLOBAL DECREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC CARBON-MONOXIDE CONCENTRATION,CARBON monoxide plays an important role in the oxidizing capacity of the Earth's atmosphere| and may thereby indirectly affect the concentrations of many man-made and natural trace gases| which in turn affect climate| atmospheric chemistry and the ozone layer(1). CO is produced in the atmosphere by the oxidation of methane and other hydrocarbons| and is released into the atmosphere from automobiles| agricultural waste and the burning of savanna(1-4). Recent estimates' show that human activities such as these are presently responsible for more than half the annual emissions of CO. During the 1980s there was evidence that atmospheric CO concentrations were increasing at similar to 1.2 +/- 0.6% per year| leading to feedbacks that could amplify global warming. Here we present a continuation of these measurements which show that from 1988 to 1992 global CO concentrations have started to decline rapidly at a rate of about -2.6 +/- 0.8% per gear. A recent study(5) has verified our findings with data from the past 3-4 years. The rate of decrease is particularly rapid in the Southern Hemisphere; we hypothesize that this may reflect a reduction in tropical biomass burning. The total amount of carbon monoxide in the atmosphere is less now than a decade ago.
3855,1994,2,4,GLOBAL WARMING AND PERMAFROST IN EURASIA - A CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO,Since models of global warming predict that climatic changes will be greatest in the Arctic and might already be in progress| it is prudent to attempt to understand the rapidly changing thermal regime on Eurasian cold regions. In this paper the author tries to evaluate the probable catastrophic implications of global climatic change in the cold regions of Eurasia. The impact on Man activities in permafrost regions is discussed. 3919,1994,2,3,GLOBAL WARMING AND THE GROWTH OF ICE SHEETS,Recent research has suggested that warmer conditions| that may result from increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere| may induce the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (Miller and de Vernal 1992) through the impact of warmer temperature on the water carrying capacity of the atmosphere and thus on precipitation. In this study we examine this possibility by using a coupled energy balance climate-thermodynamic sea ice model. Results indicate that if summer ice albedo is high enough| and there is some mechanism for initially maintaining ice through the summer season| then it may be possible to have ice sheet growth under the conditions of CO2 induced warming. 3925,1994,4,1,GREENHOUSE STATISTICS - TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS .2.,The analysis of part I (Tol and de Vos| 1993) is supplemented| updated and refined| and the resolution bound of simple statistical analysis is tentatively explored. The main conclusion of part I| the hypothesis that the anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse effect is not responsible for the observed global warming during the last century is rejected with a 99% confidence| is reconfirmed for the updated sample period 1870-1991. The slight decrease in the global mean temperature between 1940 and 1975 is attributed to the influence of El Nino and the volcanic activity. The influence of sunspots| or the length of the solar cycle| is found to be small and unlikely to have caused the observed global temperature rise. The analysis of a number of alternative records lowers the significance of the influence of the enhanced greenhouse effect to 95%. The temperatures on the northern hemisphere rise a little faster than the southern hemisphere temperatures; this distinction is not significant but in line with the larger amount of land at the northern hemisphere. Some indications are found of an unexplained four year cycle in the temperatures of the northern hemisphere. Winter temperatures rise fastest| summer temperatures slowest; this is more profound on the northern than at the southern hemisphere. The difference is not significant; it could be due to the influence of anthropogenic aerosols. The analysis of monthly temperatures confirms the conclusions above| and shows that the models used here are close to being too simple to be used at this resolution. 3870,1994,2,3,GREENHOUSE-GAS AND SULFATE AEROSOL EXPERIMENTS USING A SIMPLE GLOBAL-ENERGY-BALANCE MODEL,A one-dimensional global-energy-balance model is used to simulate the climate response of increasing atmospheric green house gas concentrations and sulfate aerosol loadings. Model output indicates that a change in equivalent carbon dioxide from 300 to 450 ppm produces a global warming of 0.69 degrees C (1.24 degrees F)| and a doubling to 600 ppm generates a warming of 1.57 degrees C (2.83 degrees F). In both simulation experiments| the greatest warming appears in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Model results show that increasing sulfate aerosol levels generates a global cooling of 0.32 degrees C (0.58 degrees F)| with the largest cooling occurring in the industrialized mid-to-h igh latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. When the effects of equivalent carbon dioxide and sulfates are simulated together to represent changes that have occurred in the past century| the model generates a global warming of 0.30 degrees C (0.54 degrees F)| with the greatest warming continuing to occur in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The latent heat transfer values| which provide a rough indication of projected trends in precipitation levels| increase globally by 2.3% as the model's representation of atmospheric composition is perturbed by greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. These basic results from the simple one-dimensional energy balance model are broadly consistent with simulations using far more sophisticated three-dimensional general circulation models and with the trends in global temperature and precipitation observed over the past century. 3857,1994,3,4,HEALTH AND THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT,Two opposing trends threaten the architect and engineer. The first is concern for global pollution. Not only energy use but also energy sources will be defined in terms of atmospheric contamination. Annual carbon dioxide targets will be established. Architects will have to become more energy conscious and numerate. The second is a demand for a performance specification for a more satisfying indoor climate. Engineers will have to pay higher regard to the inhabitants and quantify occupant satisfaction. Building design will be performance based both in terms of external pollution and guaranteed internal conditions. 2618,1994,2,4,HOLOCENE SEA-LEVEL RISE AND THE FATE OF MANGROVE FORESTS WITHIN THE WIDER CARIBBEAN REGION,This paper (1) reviews mangrove forest peat accretion data obtained from carbonate settings of the Wider Caribbean Region and (2) evaluates the fate of these forests based upon current global eustatic sea-level rise projections. Historical peat accretion rates calculated using Cs-137 or Pb-219 average 3.7 mm yr(-1). Feat accretion rates calculated using C-14 average 1.0 mm yr(-1). The discrepancy between historical and geological accretion rates| also recognized in salt marsh settings| is attributed to organic decomposition and sediment compaction. Our conceptual model| which is based upon comparisons between projected rates of global eustatic sealevel rise and peat secretion| predicts stable forest conditions only it historical accretion rates persist during a conservative (low) sea-level rise of similar to 1.3 mm yr(-1). Best guess (middle) and high estimates of a sea-level rise of as much as 8 mm yr(-1) will likely submerge mangrove forests located within carbonate settings of the Wider Caribbean Region.
2619,1994,4,4,IDENTIFYING REGIONAL GOALS AND POLICY CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE,This paper presents a systematic approach| assisted by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and goal programming (GP)| to build a bridge between science and policy in a regional climate change impact study. The approach is being applied in the Mackenzie Basin of Canada. The study focuses on the identification and specification of regional policy concerns relating to climate change. The approach attempts to ensure that the outputs of the climate change impact study reflect some major concerns of various regional 'stake holders'.
3822,1994,2,3,IMPACT OF INCREASED CO2 ON SIMULATED ENSO-LIKE PHENOMENA,The impact of a CO2-induced global warming on ENSO-like fluctuations in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM is analyzed using two multi-century experiments. In the 4xCO2 experiment| CO2 increases by a factor of four in the first 140 years and then remains constant at 4xCO2 for another 360 years; in the control experiment| CO2 remains constant at 1xCO2 for 1000 years. The standard deviation of tropical Pacific SST fluctuations (7-degrees-N-7-degrees-S| 173-degrees-E-120-degrees-W; 2 to 15 year timescales) is 24% lower in the 4xCO2 experiment than in the control experiment; for the model's Southern Oscillation Index| a 19% decrease occurs| whereas for central tropical Pacific rainfall| a 3% increase occurs. An important feature of the control simulation is the internally generated modulation of variability on a multi-century timescale| which is comparable in magnitude to the changes occurring with 4xCO2. We conclude that despite an order 5 K warming of the tropical Pacific| and order 50% increase in time-mean atmospheric water vapor under 4xCO2 conditions| ENSO-like SST fluctuations in the coupled model do not intensify| but rather decrease slightly in amplitude. 2620,1994,4,3,IMPLICATIONS FOR ENERGY AND CLIMATE-CHANGE POLICIES OF USING PURCHASING-POWER-PARITY-BASED GDP,There is a much better correlation between energy use and GNP or GDP when the latter are calculated using purchasing-power parity (PPP) rather than market-exchange rates (MER). Using PPP-adjusted GDP also shows that the larger developing countries of the world are not| when viewed overall| less energy-efficient than their industrialized country counterparts. The per capita GDPs of the larger developing countries are typically about 1/10 to 1/4 of those of the O.E.C.D. countries| on a PPP-adjusted basis| rather than in the range of 1/80 to 1/10 on an MER-basis. This result may have major implications for future energy requirements of the developing countries| associated emissions of CO2| and formulation of policies for addressing global climate change.
3842,1994,3,3,INDUSTRIAL AND NONINDUSTRIAL ANTHROPOGENIC INPUTS TO THE GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES - IMPLICATIONS FOR INTERTEMPORAL ENVIRONMENTAL-POLICY,The majority of developing nations continue to rely primarily of biomass energy sources even as they endeavor to modernize and industrialize their economic base. The implications of this dependence include a strong linkage between pre-industrial conditions and future national development| as well as the need for environmental planning that explicitly recognizes the natural time-scales of ecological change. Environmental policy analysts consequently must work with this mix of resources and constraints as well as the political and managerial environment generated by recent concerns over global warming and change. To develop a framework for evaluating longterm environmental impacts| we first elaborate on an earlier time-line model of pre-industrial anthropogenic carbon emissions (Kammen and Marine| 1993). We then examine the implications of environmental decision making necessitated by natural time-scales of forest growth| the natural biogeochemical cycles| and the anthropogenic release of trace gasses. This perspective provides a number of insights into sustainable levels of land-conversion for agricultural activity and biomass utilization| and more generally sets natural time-horizons that must be integrated into the planning of strategies for development and economic growth. 3828,1994,2,4,INFLUENCE OF WATER-TABLE ON CARBON-DIOXIDE| CARBON-MONOXIDE| AND METHANE FLUXES FROM TAIGA BOG MICROCOSMS,Hydrological changes| particularly alterations in water table level| may largely overshadow the mole direct effects of global temperature increase upon carbon cycling in arctic and subarctic wetlands. Frozen cores (n=40) of intact soils and vegetation were collected from a bog near Fairbanks| Alaska| and fluxes of CO2| CH4| and CO in response to water table variation were studied under controlled conditions in the Duke University phytotron. Core microcosms thawed to a 20-cm depth over 30 days under a 20 hour photoperiod with a day/night temperature regime of 20/10 degrees C. After 30 days the water table in 20 microcosms was decreased from the soil surface to -15 cm and maintained at the soil surface in 20 control cores. Outward fluxes of CO2 (9-16 g m(-2) d(-1)) and CO (3-4 mg m(-2) d(-1)) were greatest during early thaw and decreased to near zero for both gases before the water table treatment started. Lower water table tripled CO2 flux to the atmosphere when compared with control cores. Carbon monoxide was emitted at low rates from high water table cores and consumed by low water table cores. Methane fluxes were low (<1 mg m(-2) d(-1)) in all cores during thaw. High water table cores increased CH4 flux to 8-9 mg m(-2) d(-1) over 70 days and remained high relative to the low water table cores (<0.74 mg m(-2) d(-1)). Although drying of wetland taiga soils may decrease CH4 emissions to the atmosphere| the associated increase in CO2 due to aerobic respiration will likely increase the global warming potential of gas emissions from these soils. 2657,1994,2,4,INFLUENCES OF SOIL VOLUME AND AN ELEVATED CO2 LEVEL ON GROWTH AND CO2 EXCHANGE FOR THE CRASSULACEAN ACID METABOLISM PLANT OPUNTIA-FICUS-INDICA,Effects of the current (38 Pa) and an elevated (74 Pa) CO2 partial pressure on root and shoot areas| biomass accumulation and daily net CO2 exchange were determined for Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Miller| a highly productive Crassulacean acid metabolism species cultivated worldwide. Plants were grown in environmentally controlled rooms for 18 weeks in pots of three soil volumes (2 600| 6 500 and 26 000 cm3)| the smallest of which was intended to restrict root growth. For plants in the medium-sized soil volume| basal cladodes tended to be thicker and areas of main and lateral roots tended to be greater as the CO2 level was doubled. Daughter cladodes tended to be initiated sooner at the current compared with the elevated CO2 level but total areas were similar by 10 weeks. At 10 weeks| daily net CO2 uptake for the three soil volumes averaged 24% higher for plants growing under elevated compared with current CO2 levels. but at 18 weeks only 3% enhancement in uptake occurred. Dry weight gain was enhanced 24% by elevated CO2 during the first 10 weeks but only 8% over 18 weeks. Increasing the soil volume 10-fold led to a greater stimulation of daily net CO2 uptake and biomass production than did doubling the CO2 level. At 18 weeks| root biomass doubled and shoot biomass nearly doubled as the soil volume was increased 10-fold; the effects of soil volume tended to be greater for elevated CO2. The amount of cladode nitrogen per unit dry weight decreased as the CO2 level was raised and increased as soil volume increased| the latter suggesting that the effects of soil volume could be due to nitrogen limitations.
3836,1994,4,4,INVESTIGATION OF THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE ENERGY OF THE HIGHEST OCCUPIED MOLECULAR-ORBITAL (HOMO) AND THE LOGARITHM OF THE OH RATE-CONSTANT OF HYDROFLUOROCARBONS AND HYDROFLUOROETHERS,A regression based model was developed to determine whether highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) energies| calculated using Kohn-Sham orbital density functional theory (DFT)| could be used to estimate the OH rate constants of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrofluoroethers (HFEs)| proposed substitutes for stratospheric O3 depleting chlorofluorocarbons. The goodness of fit of the DFT model was compared with a second regression model| derived using recently reported HOMO energies obtained from Hartree Fock theory (HFT). Both models were employed to predict OH rate constants for a number of HFCs and HFEs whose OH rate constants have not been measured| thus providing data on the types of chemical structures that may increase the OH reactivity of the substitute and hence decrease its contribution to global warming. The estimated percent standard errors in the OH rate constant HFT and DFT regression models were 72% and 78%| respectively. The goodness of fits were such that the models can differentiate between two rate constants only when their ratio exceeds about a factor of four. Model results suggest that (1) only a limited number of HFEs will have OH rate constants that are more than an order of magnitude greater than the value for their corresponding HFCs and (2) the strategy of introducing an ether linkage into an HFC to dramatically enhance its reactivity will be most effective for the least fluorinated HFCs. (C) 1994 John Wiley & Sons| Inc.dagger 3815,1994,5,3,IS EARTH CLIMATE POISED TO JUMP AGAIN,Considerable concern exists regarding the possible climatic effects of the buildup of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere. Computer simulations of atmospheric circulation models suggest that the modern climate system is well-behaved and will undergo a gradual warming. But the climate record for the last 100|000 years shows a quite different pattern of temperature change. Rather than obediently performing to the tune of Milankovitch orbital cycles| temperatures have jumped with alarming abruptness from warm to cold. Millennia-long periods of relatively steady climate were repeatedly disrupted by decade-long leaps to very different climate states.
3868,1994,3,2,IS NATURAL-GAS REALLY THE ANSWER - TARGETING NATURAL-GAS IN UNITED-STATES CLIMATE-CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY,Since use of natural gas emits less carbon dioxide (CO2) than other fossil fuels and CO2 is an important greenhouse gas| policies to encourage greater natural gas use are often touted as one strategy to reduce global warming. In this analysis| we examine the impacts of lower natural gas prices| brought about by government initiatives or market forces| on greenhouse gas emissions. The most surprising result of this analysis is that lower gas prices appear to have little impact on US greenhouse gas emission trends. However| lower gas prices and commensurate overall lower fossil energy costs do defer energy conservation efforts| stimulate more energy use economy-wide| and may displace cleaner renewable sources of energy. These results argue for a careful examination of attributes needed to align policy options intended to increase efficient gas use and those intended to lower overall greenhouse gas emissions. 3879,1994,3,3,ISSUES SURROUNDING THE USE OF LEAD IN GASOLINE - ENERGY| ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL,The use of lead is still the most energy-efficient and cost-effective way to improve gasoline octane quality. It is argued that there is no demonstrable evidence that lead's use as a gasoline additive results in any adverse health effects. Potential environmental hazards exist with low-lead and unleaded gasolines. Furthermore| emissions of carbon dioxide| the 'greenhouse' gas implicated in global warming| increase when gasoline lead levels are restricted and cars are fitted with three-way catalysts.
3861,1994,2,4,KUWAITI OIL FIRES - MODELING REVISITED,Just after the invasion of Kuwait| scientists began predictions on the environmental disaster due to threat by the Iraqi regime to blow out oil wells in the Kuwaiti oil fields. The findings with the speculations ranging from a nuclear winter to super-acid rain and global warming were presented in the World Climate Conference in Geneva in November 1990. Just before the war erupted in the middle of January 1991. a conference in London was called to discuss the potential risks to human life and ecological systems in case of blow out of oil fields. The scientists| using modeling techniques| raised the speculations about the global impact which| however| was discounted at a later stage. This paper presents an overview of the selected models used to assess the local| regional| and global impacts. The paper also highlights the model and data limitations and suggests future research directions to respond more effectively under emergency situations. 3893,1994,3,3,LANDFILL GAS PRETREATMENT FOR FUEL-CELL APPLICATIONS,The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed regulations [1] to control air emissions from municipal solid waste landfills. If these regulations are adopted| they would require waste methane mitigation in order to prevent emission into the atmosphere and reduce the effect on global warming. One potential use of the waste methane is in a device which produces energy| the fuel cell. This device would reduce air emissions affecting global warming| acid rain| and other health and environmental issues. By producing useable energy| it would also reduce our dependency on foreign oil. This paper discusses the US EPA program underway at International Fuel Cells Corporation to demonstrate landfill methane control| and the fuel cell energy recovery concept. In this program| two critical issues needed to be addressed: (i) a landfill gas cleanup method that would remove contaminants from the gas sufficient for fuel cell operation| and (ii) successful operation of a commercial fuel cell power plant on that lower-heating value waste methane gas. 2637,1994,5,4,LATE QUATERNARY POLLEN TRANSPORT PROCESSES| WESTERN NORTH-ATLANTIC - DATA FROM BOX MODELS| CROSS-MARGIN AND N-S TRANSECTS,Surface pollen assemblages in coastal and neritic sediments of the western North Atlantic compare well with eastern North American vegetation zones| and late Quaternary pollen in marginal marine sediments clearly correlate with changes in terrestrial vegetation and paleoclimates. In contrast| offshore assemblages are strongly affected by differential adaptation of pollen to long distance transport by wind and water. Marine pollen transport processes were studied by measuring air and water inputs to a coast-shelf box model| and by study of surface samples from cross-margin transects in three different climatic and oceanographic regions at approximately 38-degrees| 45-degrees and 55-degrees-N latitude. The box model shows that aerial transport is the main process by which pollen moves across the continental margin off Nova Scotia. Two clear seabed distribution patterns were found: Betula| Quercus| and herb pollen decrease rapidly offshore in abundance (grains per cubic centimetre) and in relative abundance (percentage); Pinus and Picea have abundance peaks on the continental margin| but percentages increase further offshore. Distributions of the main pollen and spore taxa were compared for late Wisconsinan glacial (oxygen isotopic stage 2| 12-28 ka)| terminal Pleistocene (10-12 ka) and Holocene sediments at 5 continental margin and 3 deep-sea sites. The largest changes were found in percentages of Pinus| Picea| and herb pollen during the late Wisconsinan glacial and terminal Pleistocene intervals at subpolar latitudes. These data can be related to shifts in paleo-vegetation| -winds and -hydrology that accompany global climate change.
3849,1994,3,3,LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS TO MINIMIZE GLOBAL WARMING IMPACT,This paper describes a technique to identify the effects on potential global warning of waste| of both energy and materials| in the areas of refrigeration and air-conditioning. Such equipment always uses energy and generally contains an chemical driving fluid. The calculation converts emissions of the driving fluids and the energy used to run the equipment into the equivalent Warning Impact (TEWI). Examples show that the switch from CFCs to HFCs should result in marked reductions in the potential for global warning from refrigeration and air-conditioning and that the TEWIs of hermetically sealed systems are influenced more by energy efficiency than the effect of total loss of the driving fluid. The technique may be applied with equal facility in areas other than refrigeration. 2650,1994,4,3,LOCAL TEMPERATURE ESTIMATION UNDER CLIMATE-CHANGE,A methodology to estimate the space-time distribution of daily mean temperature under climate change is developed and applied to a central Nebraska case study. The approach is based on the analysis of the Markov properties of atmospheric circulation pattern (CP) types| and a stochastic linkage between daily (here 500 hPa) CP types and daily mean temperatures. Historical data and general circulation model (GCM) output of daily CP corresponding to 1 x CO2 and 2 x CO2 scenarios are considered. The relationship between spatially averaged geopotential height of the 500 hPa surface - within each CP type - and daily mean temperature is described by a nonparametric regression technique. Time series of daily mean temperatures corresponding to each of these cases are simulated and their statistical properties are compared. Under the climate of central Nebraska| the space-time response of daily mean temperature to global climate change is variable. In general| a warmer climate appears to cause about 5-degrees-C increase in the winter months| a smaller increase in other months with no change in July and August. The sensitivity of the results to the GCM utilized should be considered.
2651,1994,2,4,LONG-TERM CHANGES IN ANNUAL RAINFALL PATTERNS IN SOUTHERN ISRAEL,Within the study region in southern Israel| the annual average rainfall during the period 1961-1990 increased by up to approximately 30%| with only minor changes in the control stations representing the central and northern parts of the country. The retreat of aridity is made even more pronounced by an appreciable decrease in the coefficient of variation (CV) in nearly all of the 30 rain stations within the study region. The geographical area where maximum CV reductions were found correlates well with the area where intensive land-use variations took place with the initial operation of the National Water Carrier in 1964. A global climate change in the sea surface temperatures starting in the early 1960's may have had an effect to increase seasonal rainfall. Current research is aimed at resolving this issue.
3927,1994,2,4,Marine sediments as a source of atmospheric methane,Methane sources and sinks have been evaluated at 10 sites off the east coasts of Canada and Russia. More than 99% of the diffusive methane flux from marine sediments appears to be consumed by microbial oxidation when dissolved sulfate is present. At 3 sites| methane bubble vents were found. Two of the vents| located in the Okhotsk Sea| appear to result from gas being released along faults. The third plume site was located in a shallow harbour where a large amount of organic carbon is deposited in shallow water. The global diffusive and advective (bubbles) release of methane to the atmosphere from marine sediments is estimated to fall into the range of 1 - 10 TgC a(-1) (l Tg = 10(12) g). Researchers have speculated that marine gas hydrate deposits hold vast quantitites of methane that may melt and be released as a result of global warming. A warmer atmosphere could directly heat the ocean and/or change ocean current systems| which could bring warmer water to some areas. Hydrate samples were recovered from two sites in the Okhotsk Sea. These deposits| in 700 to 800 m of water| would require water temperatures to increase by 8 degrees C in order to melt the hydrate. Quantitative estimates of hydrate reservoirs near the minimum pressure stability zone are needed to remove the uncertainty whether this will be a significant positive feedback loop for global warming. 2611,1994,5,4,MASSIVE ICEBERG DISCHARGES AS TRIGGERS FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE,Observations of large and abrupt climate changes recorded in Greenland ice cores have spurred a search for clues to their cause. This search has revealed that at six times during the last glaciation| huge armadas of icebergs launched from Canada spread across the northern Atlantic Ocean| each triggering a climate response of global extent.
3875,1994,4,5,MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT ARMAGH-OBSERVATORY| 1844-1992| AND THE LENGTH OF THE SUNSPOT CYCLE,The question of whether or not the Earth's climate is influenced by solar activity has received considerable attention since the mid-nineteenth century. Most investigations have adopted the sunspot number as the parameter of solar activity. Recently| however| it has been shown by Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) that the mean northern hemisphere temperature| from 1861-1990| follows a strikingly similar trend to the length of the sunspot cycle| suggesting that the recent global warming could| at least in part| arise from changes in solar activity. In view of the importance of this result| we have examined a set of continuous meteorological records| maintained at Armagh Observatory since 1844| to assess| first| whether data from a single site can give meaningful information on global trends| and second| whether the data from this particular site for the period 1844-1866 can be used to extend the baseline of the comparison with solar activity. We find that both are indeed the case and that there is a strong correlation between the solar cycle length and the mean temperature at Armagh over the past 149 years.
2641,1994,4,4,MEASUREMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OH AND HO2 BY LASER-INDUCED FLUORESCENCE AT LOW-PRESSURE,The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary oxidant in the atmosphere| responsible for many photochemical reactions that affect both regional air quality and global climate change. Because of its high reactivity| abundances of OH in the troposphere are less than 1 part per trillion by volume (pptv) and thus difficult to measure accurately. This paper describes an instrument for the sensitive detection of OH in the troposphere using low-pressure laser-induced fluorescence. Ambient air is expanded into a low-pressure detection chamber| and OH is both excited and detected using the A2SIGMA+(v' = 0) --> X2PI(v'' = 0) transition near 308 nm. An injector upstream of the detection axis allows for the addition of reagent NO to convert ambient HO2 to OH using the fast reaction HO2 + NO --> OH + NO2. Using recent advances in laser and detector technologies| this prototype instrument is able to detect less than 1 X 10(5) molecules cm-3 (0.004 pptv) of OH with an integration time of 30 s with negligible interferences.
3930,1994,3,2,METHANE AND NITROUS-OXIDE EMISSIONS - AN INTRODUCTION,Methane and nitrous oxide are important greenhouse gases. They contribute to global warming. To a large extent| emissions of methane and nitrous oxide are connected with the intensification of food production. Therefore| feeding a growing world population and at the same time controlling these emissions is a great challenge. Important anthropogenic sources of biogenic methane are wet rice fields| cattle| animal waste| landfills and biomass burning. Important anthropogenic sources of biogenic nitrous oxide are land-use change| fertilizer production and use and manure application. The ultimate objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change implies a stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. As a small first step towards achieving this objective| the Convention requires the industrialized countries to bring their anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases by 2000 back to 1990 levels. It was also agreed that all parties would make national inventories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and programmes for control (UN| 1992). In this context| in February 1993 an international workshop was held in Amersfoort in the Netherlands to discuss methods in national emission inventories for methane and nitrous oxide| and options for control (Van Amstel| 1993). A selection of the papers presented in Amersfoort that focus on agricultural sources is published in this volume. This introductory chapter gives background information on biogenic sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide and options for their control. The goal of the Climate Convention is described as well as the IPCC effort to develop an internationally accepted methodology for the monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks. Finally| some preliminary results from country inventories are given. It is concluded that a common reporting framework and transparency of the inventories are important to obtain comparable results that can be used for complying with the requirements of the Climate Convention and for facilitating the international debate about appropriate response 3904,1994,3,4,METHANE EMISSION FROM RICE PADDY FIELDS IN THE CENTRAL PLAIN OF THAILAND,Emission rates of CH| from rice paddy fields were measured in the central plain of Thailand. The measurements taken monthly during the cultivation periods showed a significant difference in CH4 emission rates among three sites. One paddy field| in Suphan Buri| showed a relatively high emission of CH4| with average fluxes of 19.5-32.2 mg m-2 h-1. The average fluxes from the other two paddy fields| in Khlong Luang and Chai Nat| were 3.8 and 1.6 Mg M-2 h-1| respectively| being one order of magnitude lower than those from Suphan Buri. The low emission of CH4 at the two sites was attributed to the high concentration of sulfate in soil or the high soil Eh due to the lower abundance of the reducing capacity in relation to the oxidizing capacity of soil. The results suggest that it is essential to provide a data base of soil characteristics| such as soil type and chemical composition of soil affecting the oxidation-reduction process| as well as conduct extensive field measurements in various rice growing countries to evaluate the global emission rates of CH4 from rice paddy fields. 3884,1994,3,3,METHODS FOR EXPLORING MANAGEMENT OPTIONS TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS FROM TROPICAL GRAZING SYSTEMS,Increasing atmospheric concentrations of 'greenhouse gases' are expected to result in global climatic changes over the next decades. Means of evaluating and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are being sought. In this study an existing simulation model of a tropical savanna woodland grazing system was adapted to account for greenhouse gas emissions. This approach may be able to be used in identifying ways to assess and limit emissions from other rangeland| agricultural and natural ecosystems. GRASSMAN| an agricultural decision-support model| was modified to include sources| sinks and storages of greenhouse gases in the tropical and sub-tropical savanna woodlands of northern Australia. The modified model was then used to predict the changes in emissions and productivity resulting from changes in stock and burning management in a hypothetical grazing system in tropical northeastern Queensland. The sensitivity of these results to different Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and emission definitions was then tested. Management options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the tropical grazing system investigated were highly sensitive to the GWPs used| and to the emission definition adopted. A recommendation to reduce emissions by changing burning management would be to reduce fire frequency if both direct and indirect GWPS of CO2| CH4| N2O| CO and NO are used in evaluating emissions| but to increase fire frequency if only direct GWPS of CO2| CH4 and N2O are used. The ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from these systems by reducing stocking rates was also sensitive to the GWPs used. In heavily grazed systems| the relatively small reductions in stocking rate needed to reduce emissions significantly should also reduce the degradation of soils and vegetation| thereby improving the sustainability of these enterprises. The simulation studies indicate that it is possible to alter management to maximise beef cattle production per unit greenhouse gases of per unit methane emitted| but that this is also dependent upon the emission definition used. High ratios of liveweight gain per unit net greenhouse gas emission were found in a broadly defined band covering the entire range of stocking rates likely to be used. In contrast| high values of liveweight gain per unit 'anthropogenic' greenhouse gas emission were found only at very low stocking rates that are unlikely to be economically viable. These results suggest that policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from tropical grazing systems should be evaluated cautiously until the GWPs have been further developed and the implications of emission definitions more rigorously determined. 3800,1994,5,4,MIOCENE UPWELLING EVENTS - NERITIC FORAMINIFERAL EVIDENCE FROM SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA,The neritic stratigraphic section in the Lakes Entrance oil shaft in Gippsland| Victoria| southeastern Australia| records four major upwelling events at the third-order or 10(6) years scale. The first and second occurred during the Janjukian (latest Oligocene to Early Miocene; at about 24.5 and 22 Ma); the third in the late Longfordian (late Early Miocene; 17.5-17 Ma); and the fourth at about 9-8 Ma in the Mitchellian (Late Miocene). The evidence for upwelling consists of concurrent signals from the planktonic and the benthic foraminifera. The four upwelling events are characterized by a low specific diversity in the plankton| a high abundance of the planktonic species Globigerina bulloides| and a high sedimentation rate (> 2 cm/ka). Among the benthos| such infaunal species as Uvigerina proboscidea increased in abundance and the mixing of normally separate deeper and shallow-water taxa was common. The ratio of epifaunal to infaunal benthic foraminifera increases through the Miocene as a second-order secular trend (10(7) a) but it is marked by four strong reversals which are the four events. It is suggested that the northerly fluctuation of the Subtropical Convergence was largely responsible for the fourth of these events. The others| however| are on the rising second-order trends in global warming and sea level and they alternate with warming events recognized on the occurrence of larger benthic foraminifera. The 'upwelling events' and the 'warming events' occur at the same third-order scale as the putative eustatic cycles of sequence stratigraphy and the Mi glaciations based on oceanic delta(18)O fluctuations. The upwelling events are neritic signals of global oceanic changes| of which the most marked is at the third| situated at the onset of the Monterey carbon isotope excursion. The Miocene climatic optimum at the zeniths of high sea level and warm climate lacks an 'upwelling event'. At this time there was a sharp reversal to oligotrophic conditions| a reversal seen also in the shallower and more restricted sea in the Murray Basin. 3910,1994,4,3,MODEL ASSESSMENT OF THE ROLE OF NATURAL VARIABILITY IN RECENT GLOBAL WARMING,SINCE the late nineteenth century| the global mean surface air temperature has been increasing at the rate of about 0.5 degrees C per century(1-3)| but our poor understanding of low-frequency natural climate variability has made it very difficult to determine whether the observed warming trend is attributable to the enhanced greenhouse effect associated with increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases(4|5). Here we evaluate the observed warming trend using a 1|000-year time series of global temperature obtained from a mathematical model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. We find that the model approximately reproduces the magnitude of the annual to interdecadal variation in global mean surface air temperature. But throughout the simulated time series no temperature change as large as 0.5 degrees C per century is sustained for more than a few decades. Assuming that the model is realistic| these results suggest that the observed trend is not a natural feature of the interaction between the atmosphere and oceans. Instead| it may have been induced by a sustained change in the thermal forcing| such as that resulting from changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol loading. 3848,1994,4,3,MODELING OF SOIL CARBON DYNAMICS AS A PART OF CARBON-CYCLE IN TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS,Global warming by the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration is one of the serious global environmental problems. For the investigations on the causes of atmospheric CO2 increase and the precisely predictions of future global warming| it is essential to understand the global carbon cycle among the atmosphere| terrestrial ecosystems and ocean| and to describe it by mathematical models on the basis of ecology and engineering. As a first step for constructing such a carbon cycle model| we previously developed a model describing the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the terrestrial ecosystems| where the carbon dynamics in soil were significantly simplified as the first approximation. In this work a dynamic model describing the soil carbon dynamics was developed to improve the carbon cycle model for the terrestrial ecosystems. The vertical distribution of soil carbon and the soil carbon content in various kinds of soil were in good agreement with those previously reported in the literature. The total carbon content in soil over the world was also estimated by using the model. It can be said that a model of soil carbon dynamics working as a part of carbon cycle model between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems was established. 3834,1994,2,4,MODELING PREINDUSTRIAL C-N-P-S BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLING IN THE LAND COASTAL MARGIN SYSTEM,Human activities were important forcing functions in the pre-industrial world and have become increasingly more important in the 21st century. Because of both natural temperature changes and pre-industrial anthropogenic activities| the carbon and nitrogen cycles were not in steady state prior to the Industrial Revolution and the beginning of important fossil fuel emissions to the atmosphere. In order to examine the role of the land-coastal margin system in global climate forcing and to assess changes in element cycling in response to natural and anthropogenic forcings| we have developed a conceptual model for the C-N-P-S biogeochemical cycles in this critical ecological zone. To demonstrate the application of the model| we evaluate the behavior of the coupled CN-P cycles in the land-coastal margin system in response to a sustained global temperature perturbation on terrestrial denitrification. Model results show that the nutrient-limited coastal margin is extremely sensitive to changes in the dissolved and particulate organic matter loading from land via the rivers. These results suggest that perturbations affecting the terrestrial denitrification flux are amplified rather than attenuated in the coastal margin. In a global warming scenario with enhanced terrestrial denitrification| the coastal margin becomes more autotrophic relative to its present heterotrophic status. In contrast| in the case of a cooling scenario with decreased denitrification fluxes on land| the coastal margin becomes more heterotrophic relative to its initial status. For the +10 degrees to -10 degrees C range of temperature perturbations simulated by our model| net ecosystem metabolism of the coastal margin varied by a factor of 34| from about +0.5 x 10(12) to -17 x 10(12) moles of carbon per year. It is evident that the coastal margin trophic status is principally governed by changes in the flux of organic matter from land. The effect of changes in the riverine flux of inorganic nutrients to the coastal ocean| which changes in the same direction as that of the riverine organic flux| is small compared to that of terrestrial organic matter loading. We argue that the effects of temperature change and of certain land-use activities| such as deforestation| are similar with respect to the nitrogen cycle in the coupled land-coastal margin system. Natural global temperature variations over the last 6000 years of Earth's history| including the relative warmth of the Holocene Climatic Optimum and the Medieval Warm Period and the coolness of the Little Ice Age| probably led to changes in denitrification fluxes on land and transport of organic matter and inorganic nutrients to the coastal oceans by rivers and groundwater. Pre-industrial anthropogenic activities on land probably enhanced the delivery of organic and inorganic nitrogen and organic matter to the oceans. These variations in the riverine flux led to continuous change in the trophic status of the global coastal margin and in the air-sea exchange of CO2. The global analysis provides some insight into the direction of change but does not provide quantitative estimates of the magnitude of change. However| there is little doubt that on a global scale| downstream reservoirs of shallow groundwater| rivers and coastal margins can be affected relatively rapidly by changes in terrestrial denitrification fluxes brought about by natural temperature variations and land-use activities. The land-coastal margin system must be viewed as an entity in considerations of global environmental change. 3928,1994,2,4,MODELING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE NORTHERN ANCHOVY| ENGRAULIS-MORDAX| AS A SCHOOLING PREDATOR EXPLOITING PATCHY PREY,Extensive data sets on the bioenergetics of the northern anchovy| Engraulis mordax| and the patchy food distribution in its natural habitat allow its foraging dynamics to be inferred by modeling using techniques from population biology and behavioral ecology. The behavioral model consistently predicts that E. mordax grows much more slowly than would be expected with a pure| net-energy intake rate maximization strategy. The reduced growth rates could result from the fish avoiding zooplankton patches| where they are under increased predation risk| by swimming slowly in the waters between zooplankton patches. The combinations of growth rates and daily instantaneous mortality rates generated by the behavioral model are internally consistent with a Lefkovitch matrix population model| which includes an early juvenile stage of a stable and stationary population. Several novel and testable predictions are made by the behavioral model| including: (1) anchovies swim very slowly between zooplankton patch encounters; (2) within a patch fish swim very rapidly while searching for prey; and (3) fish often leave zooplankton patches before totally filling their stomachs. Given these encouraging initial results| the behavioral modeling approach appears to be a valuable technique for examining how potential habitat changes due to global warming may affect fish behavior and populations. Several such scenarios are proposed and discussed. 3831,1994,4,4,MODELING WATER AND NITROGEN DYNAMICS ON CATCHMENT SCALE,This paper presents an attempt to integrate methods of landscape regionalization and already established model approaches which describe the soil water budget| the dynamics of soluble and adsorbed substances as well as the different processes of the soil nitrogen budget. This integration leads to the Catchment Related Water & Substance Simulation System (CWSS)| which gives the ability to carry out simulations for the area of small catchments. CWSS is a modular process-based system that simulates the soil water and ground water dynamics| surface runoff| soil heat budget and organic carbon and nitrogen transformation processes. It gives the ability to calculate water and substance budgets for a number of landscape cells| determined by the heterogeneity of soil conditions| elevation and landuse. Water and substance inputs into creeks| rivers and lakes concerning to the catchment area can be simulated with a high temporal resolution. There are many scientific and management applications| for which this system could be used. For example it could help address ecological issues like eutrophication| effects of global warming| water management and soil erosion. Methods of parameter estimation and procedures concerning the regional aspects of soil variability| elevation and landuse conditions are described. The combination with a geographical information system (GIS) and the deduction of input values from various data sets| which are available all over the country| are described. Some simulation results related to the catchment of Lake Belau (north Germany) will be discussed. In this area nitrate concentrations of ground water exceed the legal limit for drinking water (50 mg NO3/l) and a high degree of eutrophication characterizes the lake. 3813,1994,3,2,N2O EMISSIONS AT SOLID-WASTE DISPOSAL SITES IN OSAKA CITY,Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a trace gas contributing to stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. Although a large quantity of information exists about N2O emissions from various ecosystems| this study was initiated to demonstrate the features of N2O emissions from sea-based waste disposal sites in Osaka City in relation to CH4 emissions. Average N2O emissions at an active landfill (S-Site) were several times higher than those at a closed landfill (N-Site). Average CH4 emissions were also much greater at the S-Site. Regarding the nature of N2O emissions| remarkable emissions often were observed with aerobic waste layers at the N-Site| suggesting almost inversely related N2O emissions with CH4 production at the N-Site. However| at the S-Site a few exceptionally high N2O emissions were noted in cases of high CH4 emissions. 3793,1994,5,4,NEW ATMOSPHERIC PCO(2) ESTIMATES FROM PALEOSOLS DURING THE LATE PALEOCENE EARLY EOCENE GLOBAL WARMING INTERVAL,The late Paleocene to early Eocene was one of the warmest intervals in Earth's history. Superimposed on this long-term warming was an abrupt short-term extreme warm event at or near the Paleocene/Eocene boundary and centered in the higher latitudes. This short-term climate warming was associated with a major benthic foraminiferal extinction and a dramatic 3-4 parts per thousand drop in the ocean's carbon isotopic composition. It has been suggested that the late Paleocene/early Eocene global warming was caused by an enhanced greenhouse effect associated with higher levels of atmospheric CO2 relative to present levels. We present carbon isotopic data from the co-existing paleosols organic matter and carbonates from a terrestrial sequence in the Paris Basin| France that contradict the notion that an increase in atmospheric CO2 level was the cause of extreme warming for this time interval. Atmospheric pCO(2) estimates for the Late Paleocene/early Eocene estimated from the terrestrial carbon isotopic record spanning the Paleocene/Eocene transition| are indistinguishable from each other and were generally between 300 and 700 ppm. 3795,1994,4,2,NEW SUNSHINE PROJECT AND PHOTOVOLTAIC DEVELOPMENT IN JAPAN,The global environmental consequences of CO2 discharge resulting from energy use are causing mounting concern regarding the sustainability of our development in the future. Japan successfully overcame two energy crisis in the 1970s despite the fragile nature of its energy structure and was able to maintain economic growth| resulting in a dramatic improvement in its industrial technology as a whole. Noteworthy is that such efforts were successful because they included such means as substituting an unconstrained production factor (technology) for a constrained production factor (energy) in a manner similar to an ecosystem. Given the two-directional nature of CO2 discharge and energy consumption| the experience of Japan can provide informative suggestions in response to current worldwide concerns regarding global warming due to CO2 discharge. However| Japan may now face the prospect of energy and environmental constraints again following the fall of international oil prices. In response| MITI established the New Sunshine Program (R&D program on Energy and Environmental Technologies) by integrating related R&D programs. A PV power generation system is one of the priority projects in the Program. 3890,1994,3,3,NITROUS-OXIDE AND GLOBAL WARMING,The climatic impact of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions is calculated annually for the period 1900-2100| using a globally averaged computer model. Emissions of N2O have been increasing up to an estimated 12.7 Tg N/year in 1990 by human activities and global warming. If the current trends continue| emissions are estimated to be 25.7 Tg N/year by 2100| with fossil fuel use and human food production as major contributors. The resulting equilibrium temperature increase| 0.37-degrees-C| exceeds the forcing derived from climate goals that may be considered environmentally desirable. Limiting equilibrium warming to 0.1-degrees-C per decade would require anthropogenic-induced and warming-induced N2O emissions to be reduced by 80% relative to current trends and to be stabilised from 2050| so that 10.7 Tg N/year is emitted by 2100. To stabilise the current concentration or climate forcing of N2O| substantially larger cuts are needed. However| even in an optimistic scenario emissions keep increasing up to 14.4 Tg N/year by 2100. A major reason is the close connection between N2O emissions and human food production. Synthetic fertiliser use| land-use change and production of manure increase almost inevitably as the human population grows. Thus if global warming is to be limited to 0.1-degrees-C per decade it may be necessary to set emission reductions for other greenhouse gases relatively high to compensate for growth in climatic forcing by N2O. 3841,1994,4,3,NORTH-SOUTH DIFFERENCES| GLOBAL WARMING| AND THE GLOBAL SYSTEM,The questioning of the nineteenth century baseline for anthropogenic contributions to global warming is important for its role in a wider debate about the ''framing'' of this problem between the more-developed and less-developed countries of the world. An analysis of this debate raises such potentially important questions as: (1) How do historical/developmental differences among nations affect global warming? (2) How does the prior history of one nation affect the subsequent history of another with respect to global warming? And (3)| what are the consequences of the separation in time (and space) of the capacity to exacerbate versus mitigate global warming? The larger question underlying all of these is: What is the relationship between differences in national histories| the problem of global warming| and the development of a global system capable of addressing it? 3863,1994,2,3,OFFSETTING CHANGES IN BIOMASS ALLOCATION AND PHOTOSYNTHESIS IN PONDEROSA PINE (PINUS-PONDEROSA) IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE-CHANGE,We examined the effect of climate on aboveground biomass allocation of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) by measuring trees in disjunct forest stands growing on the same substrate at high-elevation montane sites and low-elevation desert sites. Climatic differences between the sites were comparable to the difference between present and future climates of interior North America that is expected to result from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Relative to the montane populations| the desert populations allocated a greater proportion of biomass to sapwood (functional xylem) at the expense of foliage. The leaf/sapwood area ratio and percent of aboveground biomass in sapwood for trees of the same height were 0.201 m2 cm-2 and 58% for montane trees and 0.104 m2 cm-2 and 71% for desert trees. In a phytotron experiment| increases in net photosynthesis and net assimilation rate for seedlings grown under future conditions of high CO2 and temperature were offset by a decrease in leaf area ratio. As was observed for large trees at different elevations| increased temperatures caused an increase in biomass allocation to stem in the phytotron seedlings. Thus| CO2- and temperature-driven shifts in biomass allocation negated the effect on growth of the CO2-driven increase in carbon assimilation rate. Our data from the controlled growth chamber and field experiments suggest that future climate conditions| including elevated atmospheric CO2| may not stimulate growth and productivity of ponderosa pine. 3922,1994,4,5,ON THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS,The scientific basis for current projections of significant warming due to enhanced minor greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is reviewed. Care is taken to distinguish the issue of changes in radiative forcing at the earth's surface from the issue of the climatic response to this forcing. With respect to the former| it is noted that the predicted forcing is| in fact| small (2 W m-2 at the surface for a doubling of CO2| or less than 1% of the absorbed solar flux). With respect to the latter| it is noted that predictions of significant warming are dependent on the presence of large positive feedbacks serving to amplify the response. The largest of these feedbacks in current models involves water vapor at upper levels in the troposphere. This feedback appears to be largely a model artifact| and evidence is presented that models may even have the wrong sign for this feedback. The possibility is examined that the response of climate to major volcanic eruptions may provide a test of the climate system's amplification. The basis for this possibility is the fact that the response delay of the ocean-atmosphere system is proportional to the system gain. 3817,1994,3,3,OPTIMAL CARBON EMISSIONS TRAJECTORIES WHEN DAMAGES DEPEND ON THE RATE OR LEVEL OF GLOBAL WARMING,In this paper we extend our earlier work with the Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment model (CETA) to consider a number of issues relating to the nature of optimal carbon emissions trajectories. We first explore model results when warming costs are associated with the rate of temperature rise| rather than with its level| as in our earlier work. We find that optimal trajectories are more strongly affected by the degree of non-linearity in the warming cost function than by whether the cost function is driven by the warming level or the warming rate. Next we briefly explore the implications of simple uncertainty and risk aversion for optimal emissions trajectories. We find that uncertainty and risk aversion cause optimal emissions trajectories to be somewhat lower| but that the effect is not noticeable in the near term and not dramatic in the long term; the long term effect on the shadow price of carbon is more marked| however. Finally| we experiment with scaling up the warming cost functions until optimal policies are approximately the same as a policy of stabilizing emissions at the 1990 level. Based on the results of this experiment| we conclude that damages would have to be very high to justify anything like a stabilization policy; and even in this case| a policy allowing intertemporal variation in emissions would be better. 3821,1994,3,4,OZONE DEPLETION AND GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS OF CF3I,Laboratory measurements of the infrared and near-ultraviolet absorption characteristics of CF3I (a potentially useful substitute for halons) are presented. Using these data together with a detailed photochemical model| it is shown that the lifetime of this gas in the sunlit atmosphere is less than a day. The chemistry of iodine in the stratosphere is evaluated| and it is shown that any iodine that reaches the stratosphere will be very effective for ozone destruction there. However| the extremely short lifetime of CF3I greatly limits its transport to the stratosphere when released at the surface| especially at midlatitudes| and the total anthropogenic surface release of CF3I is likely to be far less than that of natural iodocarbons such as CH3I on a global basis. It is highly Probable that the steady-state ozone depletion potential (ODP) of CF3I for surface releases is less than 0.008 and more likely below 0.0001. Measured infrared absorption data are also combined with the lifetime to show that the 20-year global warming potential (GWP) of this gas is likely to be very small| less than 5. Therefore this study suggests that neither the ODP nor the GWP of this gas represent significant obstacles to its use as a replacement for halons. 3913,1994,5,2,PALAEO-PERSPECTIVES - REDUCING UNCERTAINTIES IN GLOBAL CHANGE,Information on the history of the Earth system is an important element in assessing global change. Analysis of air trapped in natural ice has provided data on the pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases like CO2 and CH4| and their recent increase-and has shown that the latter effect can be unequivocally attributed to human activities. Such data also provide the basis for estimating that the present anthropogenic greenhouse forcing is 2.5 W/m2. Records for the last 150 000 years show the variation of Earth system parameters during one and a half glacial cycles. The presence of the frequencies of the orbital forcing indicates that changes in these parameters are the main cause of the glacial-interglacial cycles. The concentrations of CO2 and CH| vary in parallel with global temperature; whilst CH4 closely follows the climatic variations| the relationship of CO2 with climate is much more complicated. Temperature in the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres varied closely in phase during a glacial cycle. In the Northern Hemisphere| changes in albedo (due to changes in ocean ice cover) are thought to amplify the orbital forcing; the Southern Hemisphere climate may have been forced to follow the climate of the Northern Hemisphere due to the changing greenhouse forcing. From the last glacial maximum to the present interglacial the greenhouse forcing increased by ca. 2.5 W/m2. In addition to the smoothed long-term climatic trends over a glacial cycle (known from ocean sediment records)| high resolution records (from ice core and lake sediments) reveal rapid climatic changes by several degrees within a decade or so. The relatively stable climate during the present interglacial is exceptional; previously| the climate was much more variable| probably due to changes in deep water formation in the North Atlantic. Recent ice core results| indicate that this instability may also have occurred during the last interglacial| when it was around 2-degrees-C warmer than at present| raising the possibility that the climate could become unstable if human-induced global warming occurs. Such unexpected results show the complexity of the Earth system and the need for an appraisal of our understanding of its behavior. 3873,1994,3,2,PASSENGER CAR GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL - CURRENT AND PROJECTED LEVELS IN THE UK,This paper presents the results of a new analysis of the global warming potential of emissions from passenger cars in the UK. Projections of future emissions are combined with GWPs to present a picture of the overall potential of future car transport emissions to affect the global climate. The projections from this modelling exercise point to the fact that the car transport sector will not be able to meet the international target of returning emissions of greenhouse gases to their 1990 levels by 2000. Technological improvements will help to keep in check the total warming impact of car transport in the near future by reducing non-carbon dioxide emissions. However| eventually demand increases will overcome this benefit unless further improvements| particularly in CO2 emissions| can be achieved. This suggests a need for prompt introduction of longer-term measures to manage demand and increase trip efficiency. The results of our sensitivity analysis suggest that more work to better determine nitrous oxide emissions factors should be given priority| that increasing diesel market share has little impact| and that the uncertainties over actual GWP values do not appear to have a significant impact on the total warming potential of passenger car emissions. 2617,1994,2,4,PEATLANDS AND GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE - INSIGHTS FROM COMPARATIVE-STUDIES OF SITES SITUATED ALONG A LATITUDINAL GRADIENT,Sphagnum-dominated peatland ecosystems that are structurally and functionally similar to their boreal and subarctic counterparts are found as far south as West Virginia. Completed| ongoing| and preliminary studies conducted at Bog Run Bog| WV| Bog Lake Bog| MN| and Wetland 307 of the Experimental Lakes Area| Ontario have included 1) a reciprocal transplant of dominant hummock and hollow Sphagnum species| examining growth in length| 2) a reciprocal transplant of peat| with periodic retrieval of transplanted samples and analysis of CO2 and CH4 production under anoxic and oxic conditions at held temperature and at 22 degrees C| 3) C-14-labeling of vegetation in hollow| hummock| and shrub plots| following the fate of a single day's photosynthetic fixation through aboveground and belowground components over time| and 4) a preliminary analysis of C-13 ratios in peat and of the CH4 that is produced and emitted. Collectively| these studies provide support for the premise that comparative studies of northern (cooler climate) and southern (warmer climate) peatland sites may provide insights into potential functional changes in boreal peatlands under predicted scenarios of global climate change.
3816,1994,3,4,PENTANE BLOWN POLYURETHANE RIGID FOAMS FOR CONSTRUCTION,Pentane as a blowing agent for polyurethane rigid foam has gained easy access to the European market. Initially introduced in the Double Conveyor Belt (DCB) production of laminate boards| its use spread to the introduction of metal sandwich panels and slabstock foam. Recently cyclopentane has been introduced as a blowing agent in the production of polyurethane foam for home appliances and construction. Today several plants run a full scale production of pentane blown polyurethane rigid foam. Pentane combines advantageous physical and technical properties with good environmental data. Being halogen free| pentane is safe for the ozone layer| and its contribution to the Global Warming Potential (GWP) is negligible. The processing of pentane blown polyurethane rigid foam systems is determined by the inflammability of the blowing agent and its limited solubility in the raw materials. Even though the fire risk can be controlled by safety measures and devices| pentane is not a simple replacement for CFC-11 as a polyurethane blowing agent. Its use requires major development work. The physical properties of pentane blown foams match those of CFC-11 blown ones. The initial thermal conductivity is higher. Nevertheless| the aging characteristics of the foams are excellent and at least equivalent to those of CFC-11 blown foams. Aging tests indicate that pentane remains in the cell gas as long as CFC-11. The production of highly flame retarded pentane blown PUR and PIR foams is possible. Small and large scale fire tests of pentane blown foams gave no indication of a higher fire risk than CFC-11 blown foams. The paper deals with the development| production and properties of pentane blown polyurethane rigid foam for construction. 2655,1994,2,4,POPULATION DIFFERENTIATION IN LOCOMOTOR PERFORMANCE AND THE POTENTIAL RESPONSE OF A TERRESTRIAL ORGANISM TO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE,Models of global climate change predict an increase in the mean surface temperature between 1.5 degrees and 4.5 degrees C by the middle of the next century. Even a moderate increase of 3 degrees C is Likely to result in a shift in the distribution of North American habitat types and vegetational associations| either in latitude or elevation or both. The challenge to Conservation Biology is to predict the responses of terrestrial organisms to the expected alteration in habitats and ecosystems. Recent biophysical models have been expanded to demonstrate the intimate associations between the thermal environment| organismal physiology and ecology. Thus| the expected turnover in habitats may have a profound influence on the distribution of organisms. I describe one possible approach that couples temporal and spatial variation in an ecologically relevant physiological trait| locomotory performance| in a widespread species of lizard| Urosaurus ornatus| to predict the expected response of species to global change. Estimates of maximum velocity and endurance capacity were obtained from 16 populations throughout the range of U. ornatus. Information on spatial variation was supplemented with data on temporal variation spanning an eight year period from a single reference population. I used these data to address two questions: 1) is there an association between locomotory performance and the expected habitat changes predicted from global climate models and 2) is there sufficient variation within a population to respond to habitat modification. Populations of U. ornatus varied significantly in sprint speed and stamina. Several environmental factors expected to correlate with global climate change were evaluated using the patterns of variation in locomotor performance. Results from this study suggest that high elevation populations found in ponderosa pine forests should be most susceptible to changes in climate. Within-population variation was found to span the range of variation seen among populations and was sensitive to temporal variation in climatic conditions. Given the expected and rapid change in environments| small| ectothermic| terrestrial species may not have the ability to modify their geographic distribution. However| the results presented here suggest that only certain populations are at risk; yet the evolutionary response of the population may be long relative to the rate of environment change.
2633,1994,2,2,POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE ON GLOBAL LIGHTNING DISTRIBUTIONS AND FREQUENCIES,The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 X CO2 climate (representing a 4.2-degrees-C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9-degrees-C global cooling). The results suggest a 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1-degrees-C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled| with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season| location| and even time of day.
3830,1994,2,4,POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF METHANE HYDRATES IN THE WORLDS OCEANS,Estimates of the magnitudes and spatial distribution of potential oceanic methane hydrate reservoirs have been made from pressure-temperature phase relations and a plausible range of thermal gradients| sediment porosities| and pore fillings taken from published sources| based on two major theories of gas hydrate formation (1) in situ bacterial production and (2) pore fluid expulsion models. The implications of these two models on eventual atmospheric methane release| due to global warming| are briefly examined. The calculated range of methane volumes in oceanic gas hydrates is 26.4 to 139.1 x 10(15) m(3)| with the most likely value on the lower end of this range. The results for the bacterial model show a preferential distribution of hydrates at mid- to high latitudes| with an equatorial enhancement in the case of the fluid migration model. The latter model also generates a deeper and thicker hydrate stability zone at most latitudes than does the former. Preliminary results suggest that the hydrate distribution predicted by the fluid migration model may be more consistent with observations. However| this preliminary finding is based on a very limited sample size| and there are high uncertainties in the assumptions. The volume of methane hydrate within the uppermost 1 m of the hydrate stability zone and within 1 degrees-2 degrees C of the equilibrium curve| assuming in situ bacterial generation| is 0.93-6.32 x 10(12) m(3)| or 0.0035-0.012% of the maximal estimated hydrate reservoir. Nevertheless this volume| if released uniformly over the next 100 years| is comparable to current CH4 release rates for several important CH4 sources. Corresponding CH4 volumes calculated using the fluid migration model are nearly 2 orders of magnitude lower. 3882,1994,2,4,POTENTIAL EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON MOSQUITO-BORNE ARBOVIRUSES,If global warming curs in California| daily mean temperatures may increase by 3 to 5-degrees-C| precipitation patterns will change| and sea level may rise 1 m. Studies were done on effect of temperature changes on survival of Culex tarsalis Coquillett| the primary vector of western equine encephalomyelitis (WEE) and St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) viruses| in two regions where temperatures differed by 5-degrees-C. Daily mortality of adult vectors increased by 1% for each 1-degrees-C increase in temperature. At 25-degrees-C| only 5% of Cx. tarsalis survived for 8 or more days| the time required for extrinsic incubation of these viruses. Extrinsic incubation times for these viruses shortened when temperatures were increased from 18 to 25-degrees-C. WEE virus infection was modulated and transmission decreased at 32-degrees-C. If temperatures in the warmer region increase by 5-degrees-C| WEE virus may disappear and SLE virus would persist. In the cooler region| a 5-degrees-C increase would decrease vector survivorship and virus activity in midsummer. In North America| epidemics of WEE have prevailed above a 21-degrees-C isotherm and those of SLE below this isotherm. With global warming| epidemics of these viruses could extend into currently unreceptive northern areas. WEE virus would disappear from more southern regions. Geographic distribution of vector| human| and animal populations could be altered. North America could become more receptor to invasion by tropical vectors and diseases. 3835,1994,5,4,PREHISTORIC ANTHROPOGENIC WILDLAND BURNING BY HUNTER-GATHERER SOCIETIES IN THE TEMPERATE REGIONS - A NET SOURCE| SINK| OR NEUTRAL TO THE GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET,There is a need for more intensive multi-disciplinary study of prehistoric ''hunter-gatherer'' burning patterns in temperate regions. California is presented as a case study to demonstrate how powerful| effective| and widely employed fire was in the native repertoire for directly manipulating the wildland environment. It is highly likely that the magnitude of burning in other temperate regions as well as in California| has been underestimated by anthropologists. A methodological approach to better define the broad outlines of anthropogenic wildland burning patterns in various regions of North America| at the point of Euro-American contact| is put forth. Regional studies which revaluate: the extent to which Native American tribes were an important ecological force in shaping the biotic and physical environment| will have profound implications for contemporary environmental policies to reduce the threat of global warming. It is suggested that physical| social| and biological scientists work together to examine global warming in a broader historical context to include temperate wildland burning by prehistoric peoples and explore its contribution as a net source| sink| or neutral Lo the global carbon budget. 3892,1994,2,4,QUANTIFYING GLOBAL WARMING FROM THE RETREAT OF GLACIERS,Records of glacier fluctuations compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service can be used to derive an independent estimate of global warming during the last 100 years. Records of different glaciers are made comparable by a two-step scaling procedure: one allowing for differences in glacier geometry| the other for differences in climate sensitivity. The retreat of glaciers during the last 100 years appears to be coherent over the globe. On the basis of modeling of the climate sensitivity of glaciers| the observed glacier retreat can be explained by a linear warming trend of 0.66 kelvin per century. 3911,1994,2,4,RAGWEEDS (AMBROSIA L) IN BRITAIN,The occurrence and ecology of three species of Ragweed (Ambrosia L.) in Britain is described. Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. is the commonest species and is most often introduced with bird seed| but does not persist probably due to climate limitation of seed production and germination. A. psilostachya DC| is rarely established in sandy places. A. trifida L. is an uncommon introduction which also does not persist. Ragweed pollen was regularly recorded in Britain in 1992. Under conditions of global warming| it is likely that A. artemisiifolia will become established in Britain and could cause widespread hay fever. 3810,1994,3,4,REACTIVE ION ETCHING OF PBZR1-XTIXO3 AND RUO2 FILMS BY ENVIRONMENTALLY SAFE GASES,A new process for the reactive ion etching (RIE) of both PbZr1-xTixO3 (PZT) thin films and RuO2 electrodes is presented| employing etching gases with low ozone depletion potential (ODP) and global warming potential (GWP). The etching process has been investigated as a function of etching time| discharge power density| chamber pressure| and additive gas. Etch rates were in the range of 250-650 Angstrom/min and 100-400 Angstrom/min for PZT and RuO2| respectively. A large etch selectivity between PZT and RuO2 was optimized. Etched surfaces exhibited smooth morphologies. Furthermore| the ferroelectric properties of PZT were not altered significantly by the etching process. A surface residue containing Cl and F was found after etching| but this organic substance was totally removed by an after-etch bake. In addition| the etched profile of the PZT films was studied through SEM. 2628,1994,4,2,RECENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE-CHANGE IN EAST-ASIA,The signing of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 by 160 nations has firmly identified global climate change due to human pollution as a pressing global environmental concern. Among the responsibilities that the nations which ratify the Convention will have are the drawing up of inventories of greenhouse gas sources and sinks and the formulation of national strategies to respond to climate change through adaptive and/or preventive measures. One requirement for identifying appropriate response strategies will be the undertaking of regional assessments of climate change and its associated impacts. This paper is concerned with climate change in the East Asian region| both over the last 100 years (using instrumental data) and also for the next 100 years (using results from climate model experiments). The juxtaposing of these two analyses| historical and future| enables a better interpretation of the significance of regional climate change to be made. Instrumental temperature and precipitation data for the East Asian region are analysed and compared with the observed global-scale trends in these two variables. Although the region has undoubtedly warmed over the last century| understanding the exact causes of the complex seasonal| diurnal| and spatial dimensions of this warming is difficult. We examine the role of increasing urbanization in inducing rising temperatures and suggest that| although substantial| urban warming cannot account for all of the observed temperature change. The paper also illustrates a flexible composite-model approach to regional climate change scenario construction that avoids the need for multiple transient GCM experiments| which can explicitly incorporate the effects of intermodel uncertainty| and is flexible enough to incorporate new scientific findings and results from new GCM experiments. The scenario presented here suggests that by 2050| mean conditions are expected to be warmer than the extremely warm seasonal anomalies that occurred during the most recent decade in East Asia. Precipitation is estimated to rise over most of the region in all seasons| although the uncertainty range attached to this estimate is much wider than for temperature.
2644,1994,4,4,REGIONAL CLIMATES IN THE GISS GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL - SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE,One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However| GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming| and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperatures using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter| and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM control run| and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures| based on the larger-scale validated circulation| may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10-degrees-C in individual grid cells.
3850,1994,3,3,RENEWABLE ALTERNATIVE FUELS - ALCOHOL PRODUCTION FROM LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS,Advances in renewable alternative biomass-based fuel technologies make their commercialization likely within a decade. Substituting fuels derived from biomass for fossil fuels can reduce dependence on petroleum use| improve air quality| mitigate global warming| and strengthen a weak farm economy. Implementation of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 increased the oxygenate content in gasoline| providing greater market opportunities for alcohols-as direct blends and to produce ethers such as ETBE and MTBE. Alcohol production from lignocellulosic biomass is promising| leading to renewable| alternative transportation fuels that are projected to be competitive as pure fuels with fuels derived from petroleum at $20-$25/bbl ($0.13-$0.16/liter) within the next 5 to 10 years. However| the timeframe for deployment depends not only on the development of technologies| but also on the active involvement of appropriate industries. Industrial partnerships have been formed| and commericalization strategy is well under way; process development units at the pilot scale are both operating and under construction in the United States. Alliances between industry and the government include agreements to proceed with scale-up to engineering development units and eventually to commercial-scale plants. 3888,1994,3,4,REPORTING EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN CANADA,Non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases are considered in ''Canada's National Report on Climate Change: Actions to Meet Commitments Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change''. By including all major greenhouse gases and their anthropogenic sources and sinks using best available science| the Report provides a practical illustration of the ''comprehensive approach'' policy to implementing the Convention's requirements. In addition to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion| the Report includes information on other sources and sinks for carbon dioxide| and for methane and nitrous oxide. Other gases considered include polyflourocarbons| hydroflourocarbons| and the primary tropospheric ozone precursors| nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. Current Global Warming Potential indices are used to compare and integrate the best estimates of climate change impacts of the major greenhouse gases. The presentation of emission data is intended to be transparent and comparable. The relative quality of the data for various gases and sources is indicated. The existence of environmental| economic| and other benefits to limiting emissions of all greenhouse gases| in addition to carbon dioxide| should be recognized. Continuing assessments and actions on non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions| both nationally and internationally| are suggested. 3812,1994,4,3,RESERVOIR TIMESCALES FOR ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE,Non-steady state timescales are complicated and their application to specific geophysical systems requires a common theoretical foundation. We first extend reservoir theory by quantifying the difference between turnover time and transit time (or residence time) for time-dependent systems under any mixing conditions. We explicitly demonstrate the errors which result from assuming these timescales are equal| which is only true at steady state. We also derive a new response function which allows the calculation of age distributions and timescales for well-mixed reservoirs away from steady state| and differentiate between timescales based on gross and net fluxes. These theoretical results are particularly important to tracer-calibrated ''box models'' currently used to study the carbon cycle| which usually approximate reservoirs as well-mixed. We then apply the results to the important case of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere| since timescales describing its behavior are commonly used but ambiguously defined. All relevant timescales| including lifetime| transit time| and adjustment time| are precisely defined and calculated from data and models. Apparent discrepancies between the current| empirically determined turnover time of 30-60 years and longer model-derived estimates of expected lifetime and adjustment time are explained within this theoretical framework. We also discuss the results in light of policy issues related to global warming| in particular since any comparisons of the ''lifetimes'' of different greenhouse gases (CO2| CH4| N2O| CFC's etc.) must use a consistent definition to be meaningful. 2643,1994,2,4,RESPONSES OF RESPIRATION TO INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC CARBON-DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS,It has been recently recognized that increases in carbon dioxide concentration such as are anticipated for the earth's atmosphere in the next century often reduce plant respiration. There can be both a short-term reversible effect of unknown cause| and long-term acclimation| which may reflect the synthesis and maintenance of less metabolically expensive materials in plants grown at elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. Because respiration provides energy and carbon intermediates for growth and maintenance| reductions in respiration by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations may have effects on physiology beyond an improvement in plant carbon balance. As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases| reduced respiration could be as important as increased photosynthesis in improving the ability of terrestrial vegetation to act as a sink for carbon| but it could also have other consequences.
3851,1994,2,3,RESPONSES OF TRACE GAS FLUXES AND N AVAILABILITY TO EXPERIMENTALLY ELEVATED SOIL TEMPERATURES,We are conducting a field study to determine the long-term response of belowground processes to elevated soil temperatures in a mixed deciduous forest. We established 18 experimental plots and randomly assigned them to one of three treatments in six blocks. The treatments are: (1) heated plots in which the soil temperature is raised 5-degrees-C above ambient using buried heating cables; (2) disturbance control plots (cables but no heat); and (3) undisturbed control plots (no cables and no heat). In each plot we measured indexes of N availability| the concentration of N in soil solutions leaching below the rooting zone| and trace gas emissions (CO2| N2O| and CH4). In this paper we present results from the first 6 mo of this study. The daily average efflux of CO2 increased exponentially with increasing soil temperature and decreased linearly with increasing soil moisture. A linear regression of temperature and the natural logarithm of CO2 flux explained 92% of the variability. A linear regression of soil moisture and CO2 flux could explain only 44% of the variability. The relationship between soil temperature and CO2 flux is in good agreement with the Arrhenius equation. For these CO2 flux data| the activation energy was 63 kJ/mol and the Q10 was 2.5. The daily average uptake of CH| increased linearly with increasing soil temperatures and decreased linearly with increasing soil moisture. Linear regression could explain 46% of the variability in the relationship between temperature and CH4 uptake and 49% of the variability in the relationship between soil moisture and CH4 uptake. We predicted the annual CO2 flux from our study site in 1991 using two empirical relationships: the relationship between air temperature and soil temperature| and the relationship between soil temperature and CO2 flux. We estimate that the annual CO2-C flux in 1991 was 712 g/m2 from unheated soil and 1250 g/m2 from heated soil. By elevating the soil temperature 5-degrees-C above ambient| we estimate that an additional carbon flux of 538 g.m-2.yr-1 was released from the soil as CO2. 3866,1994,3,3,RESULTS AND FULL FUEL-CYCLE STUDY PLANS FROM THE IEA GREENHOUSE-GAS RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM,Fourteen countries have signed an agreement to take part in an initial three-year programme of research and development aimed at potential mitigation techniques in response to the issue of global warming. Formed under the aegis of the International Energy Agency (IEA)| the programme brings together those countries interested in establishing the techniques| costs| and environmental consequences of removing CO2 and other greenhouse gases from fossil fuel-based power station flue gases and storing or otherwise disposing of them. The programme has evaluated many fossil fuel power generation options| with the technologies required for CO2 removal. Using the technical and economic results from these studies the programme has recently commenced a detailed specification for a series of full scale 'full fuel cycle' studies. The programme will culminate in proposals aimed at demonstration facilities should any of the full fuel cycle technologies show sufficient promise. In addition| the programme could be expanded to look in more detail at CO2 disposal options and the question of methane and its contribution to global warming. The project structure and work programme to date are described in outline and a summary of the results to date is given| with an overview of all of the technologies involved. 3883,1994,3,2,RICE PADDIES AS A METHANE SOURCE,Rice fields are considered to be among the highest sources of atmospheric methane| an important source of global warming. In order to meet the projected rice needs of the increasing world population| it is estimated that the annual world's rough rice production must increase to 760 million tons (a 65% increase) in the next 30 years. This will increase methane emissions from rice-fields if current technologies are kept. Methane emissions from ricefields are affected by climate| water regime| soil properties| and various cultural practices like irrigation and drainage| organic amendments| fertilization| and rice cultivars. Irrigated rice comprises 50% of the world-harvested rice area and contributes 70% to total rice production. Because of assured flooding during the growing period it is the primary source of methane. Rainfed rice emits less methane due to periods of droughts. Upland rice| being never flooded for a significant period of time| is not a significant source of methane. There is great potential to develop 'no regret' mitigation options that are in accordance with increasing rice production. 3941,1994,4,4,RITE - RESEARCH-INSTITUTE-OF-INNOVATIVE-TECHNOLOGY-FOR-THE-EARTH,The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992| stimulated many national and international research programmes designed to control pollution and counter global warming. In Japan| these problems had already been given top-level consideration since 1989 and this led to the foundation of the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) in Kansai Science City: it was formally opened last year. This article| by its Director-General| reviews its policy and the research programmes already under way. 2632,1994,2,4,ROLE OF PLANTS AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES IN SOIL EVOLUTION,Plants of the modern ecosystem influence humous content mainly to a depth of 20 cm. Therefore any climate changes that lead to succession changes of the ecosystem lead to a change in the humous content only in that layer. In deeper horizons due to global climate change| either the former humous state will be preserved or the humous reserves will diminish| which is related to mineralization of the humus or to gleying. Global climate changes also lead to a change in the water regime| which will facilitate peat accumulation (in the case of submersion) and decomposition with a more intensive water demand.
3923,1994,5,3,SAND SEA HISTORY OF THE TAKLIMAKAN FOR THE PAST 30|000 YEARS,A series of absolute dates for surface sediments in the Taklimakan Desert| reveals the evolution of aeolian processes over the past 30|000 years. Sandy materials from flood plains and palaeo-lacustrine plains through wind erosion are the main sources of the desert. Cold air intrusions from the northeast of the Tarim Basin are the main form of aeolian motivation. During the past 30|000 years| an arid climate has dominated the desert. However| sand sources and wind conditions affected by ice| snow cover| glacial meltwater and lower evaporation as well as more stable air conditions during very cold periods may have led to temporary decreases in aeolian actions. In contrast with other Chinese deserts| the evolution of the Taklimakan Desert has seen alternating periods of hot| arid| strong aeolian action and cold| relatively humid| weak aeolian action in response to global climate changes. It is predicted that desertification will continue due to the effects of global warming. 3867,1994,4,4,SCENARIOS FOR HALOCARBON EMISSIONS IN FINLAND AND ESTIMATES OF THEIR IMPACT ON GLOBAL WARMING AND CHLORINE LOADING IN THE STRATOSPHERE,Finnish halocarbon (CFC| HCFC and HFC) emissions and their impact on global warming and chlorine loading in the stratosphere have been estimated. CFC consumption is estimated to have begun in the 1960s in Finland. CFCs deplete ozone and are therefore being phased out. In Finland| the deadline is the year 1995. The total Finnish CFC consumption during 1960-1994 is estimated to be about 70 000 tonnes. The yearly consumption has been| at most| about 3000 tonnes.
CFCs will be partly substituted by HCFCs and HFCs. The yearly HCFC consumption has been around 300 tonnes since the mid 1980s. HFCs are new products and their use has been minor. Both HCFC and HFC consumption is assumed to increase. HCFCs will be gradually phased out between 1996 and 2030 because they also deplete ozone. No restrictions are planned for HFCs.
CFC emissions are evaluated in two scenarios. In the base scenario| all the consumed amount is expected to be released to the atmosphere. In the recovery scenario| 75% of the amount now stored in equipment and products (about 10 000 tonnes) is assumed to be recovered. Even if consumption is phased out in 1994| emissions continue until the next century.
3916,1994,2,4,SEASONAL VARIABILITY IN PARTICLE SEDIMENTATION UNDER PERMANENT ICE COVER IN THE ARCTIC-OCEAN,A study at 79 degrees N over the polar continental shelf off Ellef Ringes Island in 1989-1990 provided year-round measurements of particulate matter sedimentation in a permanently ice covered region of the Arctic Ocean. Mean annual Aux rates of mass (1.1 g m(-2))| organic carbon (134 mg m(-2))| nitrogen (24 mg m(-2))| chlorophyll a (3 mg m(-2)) and biogenic silicon (II mg m(-2)) were determined by deployment of two sediment traps from the Canadian Ice Island at a water depth of 100 m. High flues of mass| biogenic silicon and inorganic matter occurred between July and September during the melt-water runoff. Maximum sedimentation of organic matter and chlorophyll a occurred in August and September when centric diatoms and zooplankton fecal pellets were numerous in samples. Between February and June| when mass flues were low| settled particles were organically rich with low carbon:nitrogen ratios (4-8) in contrast to higher values (6-12) during the melt-water period. Mineralogy showed that chlorite| mica| illite and quartz were abundant in settled particles collected in August| October and December. Similar minerals| thought to be supplied as small particles by eolian transport| are present in ice cores and cryoconites on the Ice Island. The observations provide data for assessing future changes in production and particle export for this ice-covered region of the Arctic Ocean that may be altered due to global warming and related changes in ice cover. 3829,1994,2,2,SIMPLE GLOBAL CARBON MODEL - THE ATMOSPHERE-TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE-OCEAN INTERACTION,A simple global carbon model has been developed for scenario analysis| and research needs prioritization. CO2 fertilization and temperature effects are included in the terrestrial biosphere compartment| and the ocean compartment includes inorganic chemistry which| with ocean water circulation| enables the calculation of time-variable oceanic carbon uptake. Model-derived Q(10) values (the increasing late for every 10 degrees C increase of temperature) are 1.37 for land biota photosynthesis| 1.89 for land biota respiration| and 1.95 for soil respiration| and feedback temperature is set at 0.01 degrees C/ppm of CO2. These could be the important parameters controlling the carbon cycle in potential global warming scenarios. Scenario analysis| together with sensitivity analysis of temperature feedback| suggests that if CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion continue at the present increasing rate of similar to 1.5% per year| a CO2 doubling (to 560 ppm) will appear in year 2060. Global warming would be responsible for 40 Gt as carbon (Gt C) accumulation in the land biota| 88 Gt C depletion from the soil carbon| a 7 Gt C accumulation in the oceans| and a 19 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2. The ocean buffering capacity to take up the excess CO2 will decrease with the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. . 3874,1994,2,4,SIMULATED CLIMATE-CHANGE - A FIELD MANIPULATION STUDY OF POLAR MICROARTHROPOD COMMUNITY RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING,Passive cloches were deployed at three altitudinally distinct sites on Signy Island| maritime Antarctica| to investigate the effect of ameliorated thermal environment upon fellfield microarthropod communities. Temperature was monitored at 1.5 m height| at ground surface level| and at 5 cm depth in cloche and control plots. During summer (December - March)| cloches elevated monthly mean temperatures by up to 2.46-degrees-C at the soil surface and 2.20-degrees-C at 5 cm depth. Integrated air temperatures over consecutive 10 d periods were up to 4.65-degrees-C warmer in cloches than controls. During winter (April - November)| snow cover of the fellfield sites buffered temperature variation and reduced the treatment effect. After eight years of these manipulations| sampling of the upper 50 mm of soil revealed consistently greater microarthropod populations within cloches than in controls (treatment effect: p < 0.05). Maximum difference occurred at high altitude where thermal amelioration was greatest (site effect: p < 0.05). Cloche populations of the numerically dominant collembolan Cryptopygus antarcticus Willem contained an increased proportion of small (length < 750 mum) individuals. No species new to Signy Island were recorded. Relating these microarthropod populations to the ameliorated thermal environment suggests that Antarctic invertebrate communities may respond to global warming| as predicted by global circulation models| with an increase in abundance with little increase in diversity. However| this response could be indirect| the intermediate controlling factor being the percentage cover of the soil surface by vegetation| itself a function of climate change. 2624,1994,2,4,SIMULATING CHANGES IN GLOBAL LAND-COVER AS AFFECTED BY ECONOMIC AND CLIMATIC FACTORS,This paper describes two global models: (1) an Agricultural Demand Model which is used to compute the consumption and demand for commodities that define land use in 13 world regions; and| (2) a Land Cover Model| which simulates changes in land cover on a global terrestrial grid (0.5(0) latitude by 0.5(0) longitude) resulting from economic and climatic factors. Both are part of the IMAGE 2.0 model of global climate change. The models have been calibrated and tested with regional data from 1970-1990. The Agricultural Demand Model can approximate the observed trend in commodity consumption and the Land Cover Model simulates the total amount of land converted within 13 world regions during this period. Some degree of the spatial variability of deforestation has also been captured by the simulation. Applying the model to a ''Conventional Wisdom'' scenario showed that future trends of land conversions could be strikingly different on different continents even though a consistent scenario (IS92a from the IPCC) was used for assumptions about economic growth and population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that future land cover patterns are especially sensitive to assumed technological improvements in crop yield and computed changes in agricultural demand.
3820,1994,4,4,SIMULATIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY INDUCED BY SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL WARMING,An atmospheric general circulation model was forced with observed interannual changes in the global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1982 to 1993. The simulated seasonal surface air temperature patterns over land areas closely resemble the observed. Over most of the globe| the patterns also resemble those associated with El Nino events and are also reproduced in simulations with weak warm tropical SSTs near the date line. An exception is northern Asia| where the mechanisms for the observed warming are unclear. The results suggest that enhanced air-sea interactions resulting from recent| more persistent warm oceanic conditions in the tropics contributed to the observed global warming trend during this period. 3889,1994,4,4,SOIL PROCESSES AND CHEMICAL-TRANSPORT - SOIL DEGASSING OF C-14 DIOXIDE - RATES AND FACTORS,Soil air normally contains elevated levels of CO2 relative to the atmosphere. The primary source of soil C is plant-root and microbial respiration. The exchange of soil and atmospheric CO2 is important to many environmental concerns| such as acid rain| global warming and waste management. Proposed disposal of high-level nuclear wastes containing primarily inorganic C-14 may provide a source of (CO2)-C-14 to the atmosphere. Field and laboratory experiments show that (CO2)-C-14 Soil degassing rate constants| the flux density (Bq.M2.s-1) divided by soil inventory (Bq-m-2)| range from -10(-7) to -10(-2) S-1| and that the loss of inorganic C-14 is driven primarily by gaseous diffusion. These constants are affected by soil pH and porosity| with smaller influences of soil temperature| moisture and organic matter content. Degassing rate constants derived through mass balance calculations to estimate loss differ only by 20% from direct trapping methods. Frozen soil degassing rate constants were up to 25 times smaller than lab values| indicating that annual C-14 loss rates in northern climates would be lower because of reduced gaseous diffusion during the winter months. Using our field data| we recommend an annual C-14 soil degassing rate constant of -1 x 10(-6) s-1 for acidic soils and a value of -5 x 10(-7) S-1 for calcareous soils. For probabilistic assessment modelling| we recommend a geometric mean degassing constant of -4.3 X 10(-7) S-1 with a geometric standard deviation of 3.26 for three different soils. This indicates the median half-life of C-14 in surface soils is 18 d| with a 99% confidence interval of 13 h and 640 d. 3856,1994,3,3,SOME CURRENT TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES,The paper reviews recent trends in renewable energy in developing countries including trends in funding| as well as in approaches and in technologies. Since the downturn in oil prices in the mid 1980's environmental concerns| especially fears of global warming| have replaced oil scarcity as a driving force in support of renewable energy. Decentralized solar photovoltaics (PV)| grid-connected windpower| biomass waste-to-energy conversion| and geothermal power appear to have the greatest near-term promise. Issues of human capacity building| access to credit| as well as the active involvement of the commercial sector are basic to progress in these areas. 3840,1994,4,3,SOME MODEL-BASED INFERENCE ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING,The magnitude of the response of global temperature to changes in atmospheric composition depends on a parameter called temperature sensitivity. The value of this parameter is unknown. When temperature sensitivity is estimated by fitting the response of a climate model forced by historical changes in atmospheric composition to the historical trend in global temperature| the estimate is rather low. It has been suggested that this may be due to the suppression of warming by sulphate aerosols| an effect that is difficult to incorporate into model experiments. This paper presents an approach to estimating temperature sensitivity based on historical temperature variability| rather than trend| which circumvents this problem. The results are in close agreement with those based on fitting the trend. 2612,1994,2,3,SPATIAL DISAGGREGATION FOR STUDIES OF CLIMATIC HYDROLOGIC SENSITIVITY,The use of deterministic atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) to understand potential global climate change under doubled CO2 forcing has prompted a need for better understanding of local hydrologic impacts. Incongruities in model resolutions do not allow for GCM output to be directly used as forcing in the smaller-scale hydrologic models. In this work| daily spatial disaggregation techniques are applied to the upper Rio Grande basin in Colorado| simulating local temperature and precipitation regimes| and preserving spatial covariance structures at all spatial scales. Canadian Climate Centre GCM output is disaggregated to site-specific locations within the study basin. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is then used to examine hydrologic sensitivity under the disaggregated climate forcing. The results from this sensitivity indicate that under spatially disaggregated| site-specific| climatic forcing| significant snowpack-accumulation decreases occur. This results in total annual runoff decreases of| on average| 17.7%. A seasonal shift toward earlier in the year is observed in peak runoff| soil moisture storage| and evapotranspiration.
3891,1994,2,4,STELLAR LUMINOSITY VARIATIONS AND GLOBAL WARMING,Recent studies indicate that variation in the sun's luminosity is less than that observed in many other stars of similar magnetic activity. Current findings also indicate that in more active stars| the attenuation by faculae of sunspot luminosity modulation is less effective than in the sun at present. The sun could thus become photometrically more variable (and dimmer) if its magnetic activity exceeded present levels. But the levels of solar activity required for this to occur are not observed in carbon-14 and beryllium-10 records over the past several millennia| which indicates that such an increase in amplitude of surface magnetism-driven variations in solar luminosity is unlikely in the present epoch. 2653,1994,5,4,STRATIGRAPHIC DIVISION OF HOLOCENE LOESS IN CHINA,Loess deposition within the Loess Plateau of China records the history of environmental change over the last 2.5 Myr. Loess-paleosol sequences of the last 10 ka| which have preserved information of global climate change| relate closely to human occupation of the area. Hence| studies of the deposition and development of Holocene loess are significant for studying environmental change and problems associated with engineering geology. We present here stratigraphic relations among four profiles from the south| west and center of the Loess Plateau. On the basis of C-14 radiometric and AMS dates of organic material extracted from the paleosols| together with magnetic susceptibility measurements down each profile| we discuss Holocene stratigraphic divisions within the Loess Plateau| and suggest that the Holocene optimum| characterized by paleosol complexes| occurred between 10 and 5 ka BP. From 5 ka BP to the present| neoglacial activity is characterized by recently deposited loess.
2626,1994,4,4,SUSTAINABILITY IN CHINESE AGRICULTURE - CHALLENGE AND HOPE,Based upon a framework of three (i.e. biophysical| sociopolitical and techno-economic) dimensions of sustainability in agriculture| this paper discusses the current situation of Chinese agriculture in relation to sustainability. The main challenges are population pressure| land degradation| environmental pollution| global climate change| non-agricultural activities| market uncertainty| low level of capital investment| and some policy and behavioural conditions. However| there are opportunities related to natural resources| labour| education| science and technology| and some models of sustainable farming which already exist.
2656,1994,4,4,SYSTEMATICS AND NATURAL-HISTORY| FOUNDATIONS FOR UNDERSTANDING AND CONSERVING BIODIVERSITY,Enhanced by recent technical and conceptual advances| two classical endeavors in biology play vital roles in understanding| appreciating| and managing biodiversity. Systematics defines the fundamental units and relationships among living things; natural history chronicles the lifestyles of organisms in relation to environments. For example| analyses of evolutionary relationships emphasize the uniqueness of certain taxa| help prioritize groups of organisms for conservation| and enable us to estimate the biology of unstudied taxa. Radiotelemetry permits repeated location of snakes and other stealthy animals| facilitating previously impossible behavioral studies and thus laying the groundwork for effective management. Natural history in a systematic and geographic context provides a rule-of-thumb'' for predicting extinction due to global climate change. Educators should emphasize the urgency of the biodiversity crisis| inform debates about priorities for funding and other conservation matters| and teach about the goals| methods| and applications of systematics and natural history.
2654,1994,2,4,TEMPERATE COASTAL MARINE COMMUNITIES - BIODIVERSITY AND THREATS,Temperate marine ecosystems are some of the most productive and diverse of all ecosystems. Over the past century the resources contained within these communities have been subjected to gross mismanagement. They are continually subjected to threats from multiple stresses imposed mostly by human activities| predominantly as a result of increased population growth. The most significant categories of threats derive from: (1) habitat loss and degradation| (2) pollution from numerous sources including sewage| pesticides| pulp mills| thermal effluents| polychlorinated biphenyls| heavy metals| oil and radionuclides| (3) over-exploitation| (4) species introductions| (5) global climate change| (6) misguided human perceptions and (7) legal complexities. Furthermore| because subtidal and offshore coastal marine communities are not easily observed| their deterioration often goes mostly unnoticed. Impacts from stresses on coastal marine communities are manifested at the individual species level| but magnify in effect throughout the entire ecosystem because of complex inter-connected relationships between species at different trophic levels| including interactions such as predation| competition and mutualism. Therefore| one missing species or group of species that may be affected by some particular local pollutant| for example| may have unpredictable direct or indirect consequences through secondary effects on the ecosystem| possibly leading to the loss of a few to many species. Rather than striving to maintain some specific level of diversity| we should endeavor to understand the basic ecological processes that control populations| communities and ecosystems so we can best predict what kinds of stresses will cause the most serious alterations to the system and avoid them. In addition| we should be conservative about protecting systems even before we understand the processes fully.
3802,1994,4,3,THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF GLOBAL WARMING DAMAGE - A SURVEY,This paper provides an overview on literature dealing with an economic assessment of expected global warming damage. While a relatively large body of literature exists on other economic aspects of global warming| in particular the costs of carbon abatement| the question of greenhouse damage valuation has gained little attention so far. The first part of the paper surveys the results of existing analyses on the costs of global warming. The second part discusses the main shortcomings of these studies and the main problems faced by researchers in this area. 3837,1994,3,3,THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MARINE CO(2) DISPOSAL,We consider the relative effectiveness of engineered systems for collection and marine disposal of CO2 from fossil-fuel-fired power plants using comparisons of the trend with time of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere from systems with and without marine disposal. Since the retention time for CO2 increases rapidly with depth of disposal| from a few years in the mixed layer up to several centuries as the depth increases beyond 1000 m| deep oceans have been considered as potential storage sites for CO2. However| CO2 Collection and disposal consumes energy and produces extra CO2. We show that some of this extra CO2 reaches the atmosphere| so that atmospheric concentrations from systems with marine disposal ultimately exceed those from systems without controls. In some circumstances| they do so rapidly| making marine disposal less favorable than direct atmospheric release. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) can be used to compare different systems| but results for GWP highlight the difficult issue of determining what time scales are important in considering options to reduce concerns about global warming. 3924,1994,3,2,THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MEASURES TO REDUCE THE MAN-MADE GREENHOUSE-EFFECT - THE APPLICATION OF A CLIMATE-POLICY MODEL,In this paper we briefly describe the characteristics and the performance of our 1-D Muenster Climate Model. The model system consists of coupled models including gas cycle models| an energy balance model and a sea level rise model. The chemical feedback mechanisms among greenhouse gases are not included. This model| which is a scientifically-based parameterized simulation model| is used here primarily to help assess the effectiveness of various plausible policy options in mitigating the additional man-made greenhouse warming and the resulting sea level rise. For setting priorities it is important to assess the effectiveness of the various measures by which the greenhouse effect can be reduced. To this end we take a Scenario Business-as-Usual as a reference case (Leggett et al.| 1992) and study the mitigating effects of the following four packages of measures: The Copenhagen Agreements on CFC| HCFC| and halon reduction (GECR| 1992)| the Tropical Forest Preservation Plan of the Climate Enquete-Commission of the German Parliament on CO| reduction (ECGP| 1990)| a detailed reduction scheme for energy-related CO2 (ECGP| 1990)| and a preliminary scheme for CH4| CO| and N2O reduction (Bach and Jain| 1992-1993). The required reduction depends| among others| on the desired climate and ecosystem protection. This is defined by the Enquete-Commission and others as a mean global rate of surface temperature change of ca. 0.1-degrees-C per decade - assumed to be critical to many ecosystems - and a mean global warming ceiling of ca. 2-degrees-C in 2100 relative to 1860. Our results show that the Copenhagen Agreements| the Tropical Forest Preservation Plan| the energy-related CO2 reduction scheme| and the CH| and N2O reduction schemes could mitigate the anthropogenic greenhouse warming by ca. 12%| 6%| 35%| and 9% respectively. Taken together| all four packages of measures could reduce the man-made greenhouse effect by more than 60% until 2100; i.e. over the climate sensitivity range 2.5-degrees-C (1.5 to 4.5) for 2 x CO2| the warming could be reduced from 3.5-degrees-C (2.4 to 5.0) without specific measures to 1.3-degrees-C (0.9 to 2.0) with the above packages of measures; and likewise| the mean global sea level rise could be reduced from 65 cm (46 to 88) without specific measures to 32 cm (22 to 47) with the above measures. Finally| the model results also emphasize the importance of trace gases other than CO2 in mitigating additional man-made greenhouse warming. According to our preliminary estimates| CH4 could in the short term make a sizable contribution to the reduction of the greenhouse effect (because of its relatively short lifetime of 10 yr)| as could N2O in the medium and long term (with a relatively long lifetime of 150 yr). 3796,1994,4,4,THE ELDORA/ASTRAIA AIRBORNE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR - GOALS| DESIGN| AND FIRST FIELD-TESTS,This paper describes the development and first operation of an innovative research tool for observing atmospheric storms: art airborne X-band Doppler radar. The radar has been built jointly by the National Center Sor Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder| CO and the Centre de Recherche en Physique de l'Environnement Terrestre et Planetaire (CRPE) in Paris| France. The radar is called ELDORA/ASTRAIA for Electra Doppler Radar/Analyse Stereoscopic par Radar Aeroporte sur Electra. The radar is designed to provide high-resolution measurements of the air motion and rainfall characteristics of very large storms. storms which are frequently too large and/or too I-emote to be adequately observed by ground-based radars. This paper includes discussions of the scientific impetus and design criteria| as well as the engineering solutions to these design needs. The design options and tradeoffs and the resulting capabilities are discussed. The paper concludes with an evaluation of the performance of the system at its first field lest| conducted as a part of the international global warming experiment in the equatorial Pacific Ocean known as the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). This evaluation illustrates that the major design goals for the radar-collection of relatively noise-free velocity and reflectivity data using a rapid scanning radar-have been adequately met. Future options for further improvements to the radar are discussed. 2640,1994,2,3,THE FLORA OF JAPAN AND THE IMPLICATION OF GLOBAL CLIMATIC-CHANGE,The influence of climate change induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 on the flora and vegetation of Japan is discussed. Nineteen small sized restricted plant-communities are evaluated as communities with a considerable number of species threatened under present scenarios of global climate change.
3885,1994,3,3,THE IMPACT OF HEAT-PUMPS ON GLOBAL WARMING AND OZONE DEPLETION,The heat pump| a proven and reliable technology| has the potential to reduce primary energy consumption and the corresponding CO2-emissions for heating and cooling in domestic| commercial and industrial applications. The basic principles of heat pump technology and the anthrogenic CO2-formation under the given energy supply and demand situation in Europe and the related impact on global warming are described. An analysis of the energy flow between primary energy exploitation and the useful energy of different heating systems clearly demonstrates the ability of electric heat pumps to reduce primary energy consumption in Europe between 15 and 50%| compared with oil- and gas-heating systems. The corresponding reduction of CO2-emissions will be between 20 and 60% and up to 85% of other pollutants. The present status of alternative working fluids which do not contribute to ozone depletion is presented and the direct (working fluids) and indirect (energy consumption) impact of different heat pumps on the greenhouse effect is discussed. 3926,1994,2,4,THE INFLUENCE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE ON AGRICULTURALLY IMPORTANT INSECTS - AN AUSTRALIAN PERSPECTIVE,Weather and climate affect insects and other arthropods of importance to agriculture in a wide variety of ways. Pest and beneficial insects| and insect vectors of plant and animal diseases| are all influenced both directly and indirectly by temperature| rainfall| wind| etc. These influences can be immediate or cumulative| and they can act either at the production site or| in the case of migrant species| at locations distant from it. Weather and climate influence| often very significantly| the development rate| survival| fitness| and level of activity of individual insects; the phenology| distribution| size| and continuity of insect populations; migration and the re-establishment of populations following local extinction; the initiation of outbreaks; the susceptibility of crops and stock to insect attack; and the capacity of producers to manage insect populations. In Australia| the high variability of rainfall is of particular significance in determining the size and quality of insect populations. Windborne migration can be important for transporting these populations into agricultural regions| and low winter temperatures in the south of the continent limit the distribution of tropical species. Current Australian research on these topics is directed mainly at the development of pest-forecasting systems| and at estimating the impact of global greenhouse warming. 3914,1994,4,3,THE INTERACTIVE ATMOSPHERE - GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC-BIOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY,The global atmosphere is a chemically complex and dynamic system| interacting both internally| mostly within the troposphere and stratosphere| and with the oceans| land| and living organisms. Its composition is changing today| and has also changed markedly over the last 160 000 yr. Environmentally-significant chemical processes occurring in the atmosphere include those affecting the ozone layer and the levels of radiatively active gases and particles. Methane| a very important greenhouse gas| has major natural and anthropogenic sources; it is destroyed largely by reaction with the hydroxyl radical in the troposphere. Both its sources and sink are strongly influenced by human activity. Nitrous oxide| with a similar range of sources| and chlorofluorocarbons| purely anthropogenic| are also greenhouse gases; however| their potency is offset partially by the ozone they destroy. Ozone| a key chemical and protective ultraviolet shield| has a complex chemistry influenced by many other trace species and is also an important greenhouse gas. Many other trace gases play a key role through their influence on the concentrations of ozone| the hydroxyl radical| and methane. Gaseous sulfur compounds| both natural and anthropogenic| are oxidized to particulate sulfates which have an important effect on albedo| counteracting the influence of the greenhouse gases. Atmospheric chemistry is therefore closely linked to industrial activity| climate| and land use through many complex environmental processes; these interactions cannot be realistically described by single numbers such as potentials for ozone depletion or global warming. The International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) project is underway and dedicated to understanding this complex system through a combination of observations| theory| and laboratory and modelling studies. 3805,1994,3,3,THE MARGINAL COST OF CO2 EMISSIONS,Haraden's model for estimating the economic cost of global warming is analysed. We change his method of discounting and some of his input parameters in a manner consistent with physical and economic theory as well as empirical data. We then find much higher costs than Haraden found. These costs are compared to the cost of reducing CO2 emissions and we find that deep cuts of the emissions of CO2 are preferable. A check of the sensitivity of our results with respect to some crucial parameter values does not alter that conclusion. 3803,1994,2,4,THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON AUTUMN SOIL TILLAGE OPPORTUNITIES IN ENGLAND AND WALES,A model was used to estimate the number of autumn machinery work-days in England and Wales for a range of potential climate change sensitivity tests. The sensitivity tests were based on current best estimates of climate change and were referenced to a 30-year baseline climate. The analysis showed that decreases in precipitation have a much greater effect on the average number of work-days than increases in precipitation of a similar magnitude or increases in temperature of between 1 and 2 degrees C. A 2 degrees C increase in temperature was found to be off-set by a 10% increase in precipitation resulting in little change to the number of work-days compared with the baseline. The results suggested that autumn soil tillage opportunities will be improved by global warming unless precipitation increases substantially (by 15% or more). However| there are likely to be strong regional differences in the magnitude of this improvement. 2621,1994,2,4,THE RESPONSE OF TEMPERATE TREE SEEDLINGS GROWN IN ELEVATED CO2 TO EXTREME TEMPERATURE EVENTS,Mean global temperatures have been predicted to increase in the next century| if so the frequency of extreme temperature events may also increase. Extreme temperatures may damage plant tissue and consequently limit the survival of certain plant species in a region. Elevated concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere alter plant allocation| physiology| and growth| and may accentuate or ameliorate the damage from extreme temperatures. In this paper we explore the interactive effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration| nutrient levels| and exposure to extreme temperatures on seedlings of three species of temperate deciduous trees. A1-d exposure to extreme heat (45-degrees-C) significantly decreased conductance the following day and decreased biomass as measured at both 35 and 105 d following the extreme temperature event| regardless of atmospheric CO2 concentration. The most shade-tolerant species| striped maple| was most severely impacted by the extreme heat event in both CO2 environments. Furthermore| striped maple seedlings grown in elevated CO2 concentrations had a significantly greater decrease in biomass due to the extreme heat event as compared with striped maple plants grown in ambient CO2 concentrations at 35 d after the heat event; however| al the end of the growing season at 105 d post treatment| this difference was not significant. A one-night exposure to low temperatures (4-degrees-C) did not affect biomass for any of these species. With an increase in global mean temperatures| the frequency of extreme temperature events| particularly hot weather events| may increase and may extend to shaded understory sites. If the frequency of extremely high temperatures increases| the role that temperature extremes may play in changing competitive interactions and thus affecting community composition may increase in importance| as these temperatures appear to severely alter plant survival and growth in some species.
3943,1994,3,2,THE ROLE OF REFRIGERANTS IN CLIMATE-CHANGE,The primary chemicals used as refrigerants| chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)| and the compounds being considered as their replacements (HCFCs and HFCs) have been intensely studied because of concerns about chlorine chemistry effects on stratospheric ozone. Increasing attention is being given to the potential contributions of these compounds to global warming. CFCs| HCFCs and HFCs absorb infra-red radiation and thus are greenhouse gases that can exert an additional radiative forcing that tends to warm the climate. The purpose of this paper is to describe the current understanding of the role of refrigerants in affecting climate. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of CFCs have accounted for about 24% of the direct increase in radiative forcing from greenhouse gases over the last decade. However| an observed decrease in stratospheric ozone| thought to be connected to increasing stratospheric chlorine from CFCs (and| to a lesser extent| from other man-made compounds containing chlorine and bromine)| suggests a negative radiative forcing or cooling tendency over the last decade. This cooling tendency has strong latitudinal gradients| but is| when globally averaged| about comparable in magnitude and opposite in sign to the radiative forcing from CFCs over this period. On the other hand| the radiative influence on climate from the compounds being considered as replacements| because of their shorter atmospheric lifetimes| should generally be much smaller than the CFCs. However| the effects on ozone should also be much smaller from the replacement compounds and there should be less cancellation in the overall globally averaged influence on climate. 3929,1994,3,3,THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AGRICULTURAL SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GASES,The impact of development of land for agriculture and agricultural production practices on emissions of greenhouse gases is reviewed and evaluated within the context of anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate. Combined| these activities are estimated to contribute about 25%| 65%| and 90% of total anthropogenic emissions of CO2| CH4| and N2O| respectively. Agriculture is also a significant contributor to global emissions of NH3| CO| and NO. Over the last 150 y| cumulative emissions of CO2 associated with land clearing for agriculture are comparable to those from combustion of fossil fuel| but the latter is the major source of CO2 at present and is projected to become more dominant in the future. Ruminant animals| rice paddies| and biomass burning are principal agricultural sources of CH4| and oxidation of CH4 by aerobic soils has been reduced by perturbations to natural N cycles. Agricultural sources of N2O have probably been substantially underestimated due to incomplete analysis of increased N flows in the environment| especially via NH3 volatilization from animal manures| leaching of NO3-| and increased use of biological N fixation. The contribution of agriculture to radiative forcing of climate is analyzed using data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)(base case) and cases where the global warming potential of CH4| and agricultural emissions of N2O are doubled. With these scenarios| agriculture| including land clearing| is estimated to contribute between 28-33% of the radiative forcing created over the next 100yr by 1990 anthropogenic emissions of CO2| CH4| and N2O. Analyses of the sources of agriculturally generated radiative climate forcing show that 80% is associated with tropical agriculture and that two-thirds comes from non-soil sources of greenhouse gases. The importance of agriculture to radiative forcing created by different countries varies widely and is illustrated by comparisons between the USA| India| and Brazil. Some caveats to these analyses include inadequate evaluations of the net greenhouse effects of agroecosystems| uncertainties in global fluxes of greenhouse gases| and incomplete understanding of tropospheric chemical processes. Extension of the analytical approach to projected future emissions of greenhouse gases (IPCC moderate growth scenario) indicates that agriculture will become a less important source of radiative forcing in the future. Technological approaches to mitigation of agricultural sources of greenhouse gases will probably focus on CH4 and N2O because emissions of CO2 are essentially associated with the socio-political issue of tropical deforestation. Available technologies include dietary supplements to reduce CH4 production by ruminant animals and various means of improving fertilizer N management to reduce N2O emissions. Increased storage of C in soil organic matter is not considered to be viable because of slow accretion rates and misconceptions about losses of soil organic matter from agricultural soils. 3934,1994,3,3,THE SOCIAL COSTS OF GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS - AN EXPECTED VALUE APPROACH,This paper provides an order-of-magnitude assessment of the marginal social costs of greenhouse gas emissions. The calculations are based on a stochastic greenhouse damage model in which key parameters are random. This allows a closer representation of current scientific understanding and also enables calculation of a damage probability distribution. Thus| we account explicitly for the uncertain nature of the global warming phenomenon. We estimate social costs of CO2 emissions in the order of 20 $/tC for emissions between 1991 and 2000| a value which rises over time to about 28 $/tC in 2021-2030. Similar figures for CH4 and N2O are also provided. As a consequence of the prevailing uncertainty| the standard deviation of the estimates is rather high. The distribution is positively skewed| which implies that the currently predominant method of using best guess values will lead to an underestimation of the expected costs of emissions. 3915,1994,2,4,THE USE OF DISCRIMINANT-ANALYSIS IN PREDICTING THE DISTRIBUTION OF BLUETONGUE VIRUS IN QUEENSLAND| AUSTRALIA,The climatic variables that were most useful in classifying the infection status of Queensland cattle herds with bluetongue virus were assessed using stepwise linear discriminant analysis. A discriminant function that included average annual rainfall and average daily maximum temperature was found to correctly classify 82.6% of uninfected herds and 72.4% of infected herds. Overall| the infection status of 74.1% of herds was correctly classified. The spatial distribution of infected herds was found to parallel that of the suspected vector| Culicoides brevitarsis. This evidence supports the role of this arthropod species as a vector of bluetongue viruses in Queensland. The effect of potential changes in temperature and rainfall (the so-called 'global warming' scenario) on the distribution of bluetongue virus infection of cattle herds in Queensland was then investigated. With an increase in both rainfall and temperature| the area of endemic bluetongue virus infection was predicted to extend a further 150 km inland in southern Queensland. The implications of this for sheep-raising in Queensland are discussed. 3852,1994,3,3,THE WAY AHEAD - WHY BUILD MORE NUCLEAR-PLANT AND WHY NOW,Nuclear power is already a major international industry and the single largest source of electricity in Europe. As the world demand for energy increases rapidly| the developing countries will rely heavily on their indigenous fossil fuels. The burning of fossil fuels will produce unacceptably high levels of global-warming gases| unless the developed nations reduce their reliance on fossil fuels. The UK's proven Sizewell design not only provides a means to develop home industries but offers increasing export opportunities. This - together with the potential loss of a nuclear skill base in the UK - should be borne in mind by Government as it contemplates the Nuclear Review. 2646,1994,4,3,TIME-SERIES ANALYSES OF GLOBAL CHANGE DATA,The hypothesis that statistical analyses of historical time series data can be used to separate the influences of natural variations from anthropogenic sources on global climate change is tested. Point| regional| national| and global temperature data are analyzed. Trend analyses for the period 1901-1987 suggest mean annual temperatures increased (in degrees-C per century) globally at the rate of about 0.5| in the USA at about 0.3| in the south-western USA desert region at about 1.2| and at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in south-eastern Arizona at about 0.8. However| the rates of temperature change are not constant but vary within the 87-year period Serial correlation and spectral density analysis of the temperature time series showed weak periodicities at various frequencies. The only common periodicity among the temperature series is an apparent cycle of about 43 years. The temperature time series were correlated with the Wolf sunspot index| atmospheric CO2 concentrations interpolated from the Siple ice core data| and atmospheric CO2 concentration data from Mauna Loa measurements. Correlation analysis of temperature data with concurrent data on atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the Wolf sunspot index support previously reported significant correlation over the 1901-1987 period. Correlation analysis between temperature| atmospheric CO2 concentration| and the Wolf sunspot index for the shorter period| 1958-1987| when continuous Mauna Loa CO2 data are available| suggest significant correlation between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentrations but no significant correlation between global warming and the Wolf sunspot index. This may be because the Wolf sunspot index apparently increased from 1901 until about 1960 and then decreased thereafter| while global warming apparently continued to increase through 1987. Correlation of sunspot activity with global warming may be spurious but additional analyses are required to test this hypothesis. Given the inconclusive correlation between temperature and solar activity| the significant intercorrelation between time| temperature| and atmospheric CO2 concentrations| and the suggestion of weak periodicity in the temperature data| additional research is needed to separate the anthropogenic component from the natural variability in temperature when assessing local| regional| and global warming trends.
3935,1994,3,3,TRADABLE CUMULATIVE CO2 PERMITS AND GLOBAL WARMING CONTROL,As an alternative to current global warming policy proposals to freeze greenhouse gas ''emissions'' at their 1990 levels by the year 2000| this study examines the implications of a long-run objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas ''concentrations'' at low to moderate risk levels by the year 2100. The current proposals to control emissions slow but do not end the build-up of concentrations| and they could imply costly short-term adjustments of the energy industries. Our objective is to explore an alternative policy that could (1) stabilize induced climate change| (2) provide for the creation of international ''property rights'' in the stratosphere by means of tradable emission permits| and (3) be more intertemporally cost-effective. Our method for analyzing this effort is a tested| dynamic| price sensitive| global economic model to which is linked a climate change submodel. Together these models enable us to project price and quantity time paths of energy| climate| and tradable permit variables under alternative policy actions. 2642,1994,5,4,TROPICAL TEMPERATURE-VARIATIONS SINCE 20|000 YEARS AGO - MODULATING INTERHEMISPHERIC CLIMATE-CHANGE,Tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs)| as thermodynamically recorded in Barbados corals| were 5-degrees-C colder than present values 19|000 years ago. Variable tropical SSTs may explain the interhemispheric synchroneity of global climate change as recorded in ice cores| snowline reconstructions| and vegetation records. Radiative changes due to cloud type and cloud cover are plausible mechanisms for maintaining cooler tropical SSTs in the past.
3938,1994,3,3,UPDATE OF REFRIGERANT ISSUES - ACCELERATED PHASE-OUT| SAFETY| AND REFRIGERANT MANAGEMENT,Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have been identified as environmentally damaging compounds that destroy the ozone layer and threaten the existence of life on the planet. Additionally| CFCs are believed to contribute to global warming| with even greater environmental consequences. Public response to these concerns has led to international agreements to limit production and eventually phase out production altogether. The impact of complying with these new agreements and subsequent legislation and regulation is just now being understood by commercial building owners| who use CFC compounds as refrigerant fluids to air condition facilities. The phase out of CFC production mandates certain actions by facility managers. These will require investment in new equipment| increased maintenance costs| and extensive planning to avoid shortages and building operation disruption. Unfortunately| no single ''right'' answer exists to the CFC problem. The regulations are changing; new policies are evolving| and new equipment and refrigerant fluids are being developed| which may render today's solution inappropriate in the future. The building owner must evaluate the costs to comply| the costs of not complying| and the risks of numerous alternatives. 2649,1994,2,4,USING CROP MODELS AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION-SYSTEMS TO STUDY THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE-CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN USA,Agricultural production is vulnerable to variability in weather conditions. Thus| projections of global climate change have prompted many studies on its possible impacts on agriculture. The aim of [is research was to develop a system to facilitate studies of the effects of climate change on crop production in the southeastern USA. The Agricultural and Environmental Geographic Information System (AEGIS V2.5) was developed by integrating field crop models for corn soybean| rice| wheat| peanut| and dry beans used in previous national and international studies on climate change with a Geographic Information System (GIS) on a personal computer. These crop models include the effects of CO2 on growth and yield and on crop water use. Soil and weather data are linked to map units so that model inputs as well as simulated results can be displayed over two dimensional space. The system allows users to alter management practices such as planting date| irrigation and cultivars| to study the possibilities of mitigating harmfill effects by adapting new practices. Example results for Florida show that non-irrigated crop yields will likely decrease and that irrigation demand would increase considerably under climate change scenarios. Examples results for Florida are displayed on a map to demonstrate the system.
2622,1994,4,4,VALIDATION OF MODEL IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE GISS GCM,The general circulation model of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS GCM) was designed primarily for global climate change and climate sensitivity applications. The modelling group at GISS has developed new and more physically appropriate parameterizations of meteorological/hydrological processes which are being validated in an effort to improve the performance of the Model II version of the GISS GCM. This study discusses some preliminary evaluations of this testing based on multiple-year simulations at 4-degrees latitude by 5-degrees longitude horizontal resolution. These runs individually incorporate new formulations of the planetary boundary layer (PBL)| the moist cumulus convection scheme and the ground hydrology and compare results using B-grid and C-grid numerics. The new PBL produces a realistically stronger tropical surface circulation| while the new cumulus scheme generates more realistic distributions of tropical convection and moisture. The main impact of the more sophisticated ground hydrology model is to increase surface air temperatures. Improvements in modelled sea level pressure and rainfall features by the C-grid are somewhat offset by increases in speed excesses at the cores of the summer hemisphere westerly jets. Each modelling innovation targeted a different aspect of the climate not adequately represented by Model II. However| since the various modelling changes were tested individually| the present evaluation could not demonstrate many dramatic improvements in the simulated climates. This documentation of impacts should| however| serve as a benchmark for the validation of future simulations of the GISS GCM that combine all of the modelling improvements.
3823,1994,2,4,WATER TEMPERATURE BEHAVIOR IN THE RIVER DANUBE DURING THE 20TH-CENTURY,Monthly mean water temperatures in the River Danube at Linz| Austria during the period 1901-1990 have been investigated in relation to equivalent information on air temperature and river discharge. Statistical analysis revealed a significant increase in monthly mean water temperatures of 0.8 degrees C and showed strongest rises in mean values for autumn and early winter months. No statistically significant trends were evident for air temperature or river discharge| and rising water temperatures are likely to reflect increasing human modification of the river system. A strong overall correlation between monthly mean water and air temperatures at Linz was made up of a series of more scattered and less steep water/air temperature relationships for individual months| while the influence of snowmelt runoff depressed average water temperatures in the spring and early summer period by 1.5 degrees C. Multiple regression relationships developed for individual months from data on air temperature| river discharge and time trend during the study period were able to predict monthly mean water temperatures in 1991 and 1992 with a root mean square error of 0.5 degrees C. These regression equations| when combined with scenarios of future changes in air temperature and river flow as a consequence of global warming| suggest that only modest rises in monthly mean water temperature will be experienced in the River Danube by the end of the present century| but that increases of >1 degrees C for all months| and >2 degrees C for the autumn period of low flows| can be anticipated by the year 2030. 2614,1994,2,4,WILD C-4 PLANTS IN GERMANY AND SWEDEN - A COMPILATION IN VIEW BY CLIMATE-CHANGE,48 species of wild C-4 plants are listed for Germany and Sweden. The difference in occurence of all species found (Germany: 47; Sweden: 23) and for the indigenous species (Germany: 9; Sweden: 3) is attributed to the temperature gradient. The most of the C-4 plants in either country occur as a result of anthropogenic influencies| in particular agriculture and industry. Only few species have been able to establish themselves in existing natural plant communities. One of the few examples is the Polygono-Chenopodietum plant society in the valleys of southern and central Germany. Analysis of the ecological characteristics revealed that C-4 plants are mostly annual herbs and adapted to high nutrient concentrations in soils. They are frequently found in saline areas| prefer well lit as well as maritime and climatically favoured locations. Most of the species are highly competitive. The changes in their spatial distributions presently observed| are closely connected to changes in land use efficiency. The shifting to the North of cultivated areas as a consequence of global climate change combined with the increased probability of extreme weather events may lead to a further spread of those C-4 species which are adapted. This effect is opposing the effect of increased CO2-concentrations which will favour C-3 plants.
4437,1995,2,4,70 YEARS OBSERVATIONS OF CHANGES IN DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF ZOOPLANKTON AND INTERTIDAL ORGANISMS IN THE WESTERN ENGLISH-CHANNEL IN RELATION TO RISING SEA TEMPERATURE,1. Extensive changes in marine communities in southwest Britain and the western English Channel have been recorded during the past 70 years. 2. Over the same period there was a climatic warming from the early 1920s| then a cooling to the early 1980s| with recent resumption of warming; the change in annual mean temperature was approximately +/-0.5 degrees C. 3. Marked changes occurred in plankton community structure; the distribution of both plankton and intertidal organisms was affected| with latitudinal shifts of up to 120 miles; there were increases or decreases of 2-3 orders of magnitude in abundance. 4. Warm water species increased in abundance and extended their range during periods of warming| while cold-water species declined or retreated; the reverse occurred during the period of cooling. 5. Climate change can influence marine communities by a combination of: direct effect on the organisms; effects mediated by biotic interactions; and indirectly through ocean currents. 6. From climate models that indicate rises of mean temperature of 2 degrees C in the next 50 years| and from the observed changes| we can expect future latitudinal shifts of 200-400 miles in distribution of plankton| fish and benthos| with extensive restructuring of planktonic| pelagic and benthic communities. 7. Species common now in the Bay of Biscay will become common in the English Channel; those presently restricted to the western English Channel could colonise the central Irish Sea; changes in community structure could lead to lower abundances of infaunal benthos and fish. 8. To fully prove the effects of global warming| future changes in the marine biota must exceed those recorded in the 1950s and 1960s. 4467,1995,2,4,A BOX MODEL STUDY OF THE GREENLAND SEA| NORWEGIAN SEA| AND ARCTIC-OCEAN,We develop a simple dynamical system model of the Arctic Ocean and marginal seas by applying the Martinson| Killworth and Gordon box model of a high-latitude two-layer ocean to four regions connected together: the Greenland Sea| the Norwegian Sea| the Arctic Ocean| and the Greenland Gyre. The latter is a small convective region embedded in the northwest corner of the Norwegian Sea. The model for each region consists of a thermodynamic ice layer that covers two layers of saline water which can| under specific conditions| become statically unstable and hence create a state of active overturning. The system is forced by monthly mean atmospheric temperatures in the four regions| by continental runoffs and by inflows from adjacent oceans. The model predicts the ice thickness| and the temperature and salinity of the water in the upper layer of the four regions. Also determined are the water temperature and salinity of the lower layer in the Arctic Ocean box. The convective state of any given region| i.e. whether it is in an active overturning mode or not| is also determined as a continuous function of time. The different output variables of the model| which are the response to climatological forcing conditions| compare favourably with observed data. In the control run| the Arctic Ocean region is characterized by continuous ice cover| the Greenland Sea and Greenland Gyre have ice cover only during winter| and the Norwegian Sea region never forms an ice cover. Another feature of the control run is the winter time occurrence of convective overturning in the upper 200 m in the Greenland Gyre region. The model is also used for different anomaly experiments: a positive air temperature anomaly which represents a global warming of the earth| a negative salt anomaly in the Norwegian Sea which simulates the great salinity anomaly of the 1960s and 1970s| and an increase in the ice flux through Fram Strait which parameterizes anomalous ice production in the Arctic. 4425,1995,4,2,A CLIMATE-CHANGE SIMULATION STARTING FROM 1935,Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data| transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this ''cold start'' error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study| a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935| i.e.| at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985| and with the equivalent CO2 concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (''Business as Usual'') of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting data alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing| but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns| particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run| as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990-2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45-degrees-N and 45-degrees-S| the signal detection times are in the decades 2015-2025 and 2005-2015| respectively. The reduction of the ''cold start'' error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability| which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors| such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols| solar variability or volcanic dust. 4402,1995,3,3,A COST-BENEFIT-ANALYSIS OF SLOWING CLIMATE-CHANGE,This paper attempts to condense a mass of information relating to economic growth assumptions| carbon emissions forecasts| abatement cost estimates| and global warming damage functions and incorporate it into a cost-benefit analysis of slowing climate change| By these means it is possible to provide evidence on the extent to which society ought to incur control costs now in order to prevent future climate change using the rules commonly associated with project appraisal| In a business as usual scenario| the model predicts a temperature rise of 3.6 degrees C above preindustrial levels by the end of the next century inflicting damage with a present value of US$8.9 trillion| An optimal policy| however| seems to involve an immediate 12.7% cut in emissions and the establishment of 37.1 million hectares of forests| The optimal tax on carbon emissions for the year 2000 is estimated to be US$16.84 per tonne and the optimal policy reduces temperature rise by 0.3 degrees C relative to business as usual| By following the optimal policy| costs are reduced by US$700 billion| It is also suggested that policies to halt deforestation and remove the subsidies paid to fossil fuel producers might reduce overall costs by a further US$1.1 trillion. 4378,1995,4,3,A GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GENESIS) WITH A LAND-SURFACE TRANSFER SCHEME (LSX) .2. CO2 SENSITIVITY,The sensitivity of the equilibrium climate to doubled atmospheric CO2 is investigated using the GENESIS global climate model version 1.02. The atmospheric general circulation model is a heavily modified version of the NCAR CCM1 and is coupled to a multicanopy land-surface model(LSX); multilayer models of soil| snow| and sea ice; and a slab ocean mixed layer. Features that are relatively new in CO2 sensitivity studies include explicit subgrid convective plumes| PBL mixing a diurnal cycle| a complex land-surface model| sea ice dynamics| and semi-Lagrangian transport of water vapor. The global annual surface-air warming in the model is 2.1 degrees C| with global precipitation increasing by 3.3%. Over mast land areas| most of the changes in precipitation are insignificant at the 5% level compared to interannual variability. Decreases in soil moisture in summer are not as large as in most previous models and only occur poleward of similar to 55 degrees N in Siberia| northern Canada|and Alaska. Sea ice area in September recedes by 62% in the Arctic and by 43% in the Antarctic. The area of Northern Hemispheric permafrost decreases by 48%| while the the total area of Northern Hemispheric snowcover in January decreases by only 13%. The effects of several modifications to the model physics are described. Replacing LSX and the multilayer soil with a single-layer bucket model causes little change to CO2 sensitivities on global scales| and the regions of summer drying in northern high latitudes are reproduced| although with somewhat greater amplitude. Compared to convective adjustment| penetrative plume convection increases the tropical Hadley Cell response but decreases the global warming slightly by 0.1 degrees to 0.3 degrees| contrary to several previous GCM studies in which penetrative convection was associated with greater CO2 warming. Similarly| the use of a cruder parameterization for cloud amount changes the local patterns of cloud response but has slight effect on the global warming. The authors discuss implications of the greater global warming (3.2 degrees C) found in an earlier version of the model and suggest that it was due to more detailed interactions that no longer occur in the current version. 4390,1995,4,4,A PROPOSAL FOR THE DEFINITION OF RESOURCE EQUIVALENCY FACTORS FOR USE IN PRODUCT LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT,Environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA) of products has been the focus of growing attention in the last few years. The methodological framework has been developed rapidly| and a provisional ''Code of Practice'' has been drawn up by an international group of experts. One of the elements of LCA is impact assessment| which includes a characterization step in which the contributions of resource extraction and polluting emissions to impact categories such as resource depletion| global warming| and acidification are quantified and aggregated as far as possible. This can be achieved by multiplying extractions and emissions by a so-called equivalency factor and aggregating the results in one or more effect score(s) per impact category. In this report a proposal is developed for equivalency factors indicating the relative depletion of a resource per unit extracted. It is proposed to measure depletion by physical data on reserves and production and regeneration rates| and to distinguish between abiotic and biotic resources. Equations are developed to calculate equivalency factors for these two categories of resources| resulting in so-called abiotic depletion potentials (ADP) and biotic depletion potentials (BDP). The application of these ADPs and BDPs in LCA is illustrated. 2573,1995,2,3,A REASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC-EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE ON US AGRICULTURE,This study uses recent GCM forecasts| improved plant science and water supply data and refined economic modeling capabilities to reassess the economic consequences of long-term climate change on U.S. agriculture. Changes in crop yields| crop water demand and irrigation water arising from climate change result in changes in economic welfare. Economic consequences of the three GCM scenarios are mixed; GISS and GFDL-QFlux result in aggregate economic gains| UKMO implies losses. As in previous studies| the yield enhancing effects of atmospheric CO2 are an important determinant of potential economic consequences. Inclusion of changes in world food production and associated export changes generally have a positive affect on U.S. agriculture. As with previous studies| the magnitude of economic effects estimated here are a small percentage of U. S. agricultural value. 4391,1995,2,4,A SEA-LEVEL RISE CURVE FROM GUILFORD| CONNECTICUT| USA,High-resolution stratigraphic studies based on sediment chemistry| lithology| macroflora| and benthic foraminiferal assemblages in three peat cores from coastal salt marshes at Guilford| Connecticut| show that coastal marshes are ephemeral environments. Marsh-wide environmental variations were common| and century-long episodes of relative submergence alternated with emergence. Despite about 2 m of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) in Connecticut over the last 1500 years| the marshes have expanded both landwards and seawards| and marsh accretion has been outpaced only marginally by RSLR. We used radiocarbon dating and the level of anthropogenic markers (metal pollution| as dated with Pb-210) in the cores for age control. For most of the last 1000 years the rate of RSLR was between 1.3 and 1.8 mm/yr| but over the last 300-400 years it increased to 2.9-3.3 mm/yr| and has been faster than the accretion rate| especially in the middle marsh. The net-submergence rate or ''submergence index'' (ratio of the rate of RSLR and marsh-accretion rate) averaged about 1.15 over the last 1000 years| and increased to about 1.5 over the last 200 years. The rate of RSLR was very sluggish during the early part of the Little Ice Age| but we found a slightly higher rate during the Little Climate Optimum; this excursion is close to the noise level| however. The most significant observation is that RSLR increased strongly around A.D. 1650. The onset of this acceleration falls in the middle to end of the Little Ice Age| and thus preceded the period of modern global warming that started late last century and that has been tentatively correlated with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. 4321,1995,5,3,A SIMULATION OF MIDCRETACEOUS CLIMATE,A series of general circulation model experiments utilizing GENESIS have been completed for the mid-Cretaceous based on geography| variable atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (2 to 6 times present-day concentrations)| and variable poleward oceanic heat flux (.6 to 1.2 x 10(15) W increased from present day). By combining all three major variables (CO2| geography| and oceanic heat flux)| the distribution of mid-Cretaceous temperatures can be achieved. In the simulations| increased CO2 is required to promote global warmth| and increased oceanic heat flux is required to prevent the tropics from overheating with higher levels of CO2. Four times present-day CO2 with 1.2 x 10(15) W provided the best match to the distribution of mid-Cretaceous data. The best match to the Cretaceous observations was achieved with a globally averaged surface temperature increase of 6.2 degrees C| at the lower end of past estimates of mid-Cretaceous warmth. This value may be a better estimate of mid-Cretaceous global warming. Finally| the model experiments can be used to provide a ''paleocalibration'' of the global warming expected for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The best estimates for the mid-Cretaceous appear to be a 2.5 to 4.0 degrees C sensitivity| in the mid to upper range of the sensitivity of current climate models used to assess future global change. 4301,1995,2,4,A size-distribution-based model of forest dynamics along a latitudinal environmental gradient,A geographically extended model of the dynamics of tree size structure of forests is proposed to simulate the change of forest zonation along latitude in response to global environmental change. To predict the response of forests to global change| it is necessary to construct functional models of forest tree populations. The size-structure-based model requires far less memory and steps of calculation compared with individual-based models| and it is easy to incorporate the dimension of geographic locations into the model to describe large-scale dynamics of forest-type distributions. The effect of increasing size growth rate| expected from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide| was diminished at the stand-level basal area density| because of regulation by one-sided competition. Model simulations of a century-long global warming at around 3 degrees C predicted that (1) biomass changed in resident forests rather simultaneously in response to warming| and that (2) there was a considerable time lag in movement at the boundaries of different forest types| particularly under the existence of resident forest types that would be finally replaced. It required several thousand years after a century-long warming spell for forest types to attain new steady-state distributions after shifting. As a consequence| global warming created a zigzag pattern of biomass distribution along a latitudinal gradient| i.e.| an increase in the cooler-side boundary of forest types and a decrease in the warmer-side boundary. 2603,1995,2,4,A SUBGRID PARAMETERIZATION OF OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION,Estimates of the impact of global climate change on land surface hydrology require climate information on spatial scales far smaller than those explicitly resolved by global climate models of today and the foreseeable future. To bridge the gap between what is required and what is resolved| we propose a subgrid-scale parameterization of the influence of topography on clouds| precipitation| and land surface hydrology. The parameterization represents subgrid variations in surface elevation in terms of probability distributions of discrete elevation classes. Separate cloud| radiative| and surface processes are calculated for each elevation class. Rainshadow effects are not treated by the parameterization; they have to be explicitly resolved by the host model. The simulated surface temperature| precipitation| and snow cover for each elevation class are distributed to different geographical locations according to the spatial distribution of surface elevation within each grid cell. The subgrid parameterization has been implemented in the Pacific Northwest Laboratory's climate version of the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model. The scheme is evaluated by driving the regional climate model with observed lateral boundary conditions for the Pacific Northwest and comparing simulated fields with surface observations. The method yields more realistic spatial distributions of precipitation and snow cover in mountainous areas and is considerably more computationally efficient than achieving high resolution by the use of nesting in the regional climate model. 4451,1995,4,4,A TOOL FOR MAPPING EVOLVING GEOSYSTEMS - A MODEL FOR A GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIO,Natural geosystems are mapped according to a new method. Spatially stable| time invariant data are linked with variable data. These later may be forced to meet the requirements of global warming models| thus enabling to map a new distribution of geosystems| for each chosen model. A Northern American exemple is presented. 4414,1995,4,4,AB-INITIO CALCULATIONS OF VIBRATIONAL FREQUENCIES AND INFRARED INTENSITIES FOR GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL OF CFC SUBSTITUTES - CF3CH2F (HFC-134A),We have investigated the feasibility of using ab initio molecular orbital methods for predicting the global warming potential of the proposed chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) substitute CF3CH2F| HFC-134a. Various levels of theory and basis sets were used to optimize geometry and calculate harmonic vibrational frequencies and infrared intensities for the molecule using the GAUSSIAN 92 software package. In attempting to assess the quality of the computations| we found it necessary to reconsider the vibrational assignments available in the literature. We have remeasured the infrared spectrum of the vapor from 400 to 4000 cm(-1) at a resolution (0.08 cm(-1)) sufficient to resolve some overlapping fundamentals and to assign symmetry species unambiguously for several bands on the basis of their rotational contours. The higher resolution spectra and the results of the computations together permit a firm assignment of all 18 fundamentals to be made. Some bands previously assigned as fundamentals are found to be combination or impurity bands. On the basis of the current assignment| we find that for the highest level calculation| MP2/6-31G**| the calculated harmonic frequencies agree extremely well with the experimentally observed ones at frequencies below 800 cm(-1)| with a systematic error toward higher calculated frequencies becoming apparent above 800 cm(-1). At lower levels of theory| the systematic error is apparent at all frequencies. The regularity of the deviation between calculated and observed frequencies makes ab initio calculations of vibrational frequencies much more useful than semiempirical calculations| which tend to show random deviations| as demonstrated with a PM3-UHF calculation in this work. The calculated absolute intensities are in good agreement with the limited experimental measurements previously reported| and the observed relative intensities for the fundamentals are also in approximate agreement with our calculated values. 4325,1995,2,4,ACCLIMATION OF LEAF DARK RESPIRATION TO TEMPERATURE IN ALPINE AND LOWLAND PLANT-SPECIES,Acclimation to temperature in terms of dark respiration by leaves is a missing link in current efforts to predict the effects of global warming on plant communities. We studied the acclimation of plants from alpine or lowland areas and asked two questions: (1) do plants acclimate to a change in temperature and does acclimation depend on the plants' origin; and (2) have alpine plants adapted to low temperatures by respiring faster than lowland plants at any given temperature? Nineteen alpine and corresponding lowland species| collected in Switzerland| were grown at 10 and 20 degrees C for 5 weeks. Night-time leaf dark respiration rates were measured at the growth temperature of each plant. Acclimation patterns ranged from full to no acclimation. Full acclimation to temperature| defined as the equality between respiration measured at 20 degrees C of plants grown at 20 degrees C and respiration measured at 10 degrees C of plants grown at 10 degrees C| occurred in only three our of 19 species. Dark respiration of leaves was stimulated by a 10 K warming| but on average| by about 50% less than predicted by the instantaneous temperature response| i.e. Q(10). Acclimation did nor depend on the alpine or lowland origin of the plant| but rather on its genus. Prostrate alpine plants displayed the lowest acclimation potential. We conclude that predictions at the community level cannot be made based on single species because of the variety observed in the respiration responses. (C) 1995 Annals of Botany Company 4438,1995,2,4,ADAPTATION OF FISH TO DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENTAL-TEMPERATURE BY QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE CHANGES IN GENE-EXPRESSION,In fish that occupy a specific thermal habitat the contractile apparatus has been adapted during evolution for that specific temperature range. In Antarctic fish the myofibrillar GTPase activity is relatively high at temperatures around 0 degrees C| but this is at the expense of enzyme thermostability as this enzyme from antarctic fishes is heat inactivated at comparatively low temperatures (Johnston and Goldspink| 1975c; Johnston and Walesby| 1977). Such thermal characteristics may be a general feature of proteins from Antarctic fish (Somero| 1991) and so may contribute to their extreme cold stenothermy. Some eurythermal species of fish have the ability to rebuild their contractile systems by expressing a different set of genes at low temperature to that expressed at warm environmental temperatures. We have cloned and are in the process of characterising warm and cold as well as embryonic myosin heavy chain isoform genes of carp. These genes encode different types of myosin crossbridges (the force generators for muscular contraction) and therefore determine the contractile characteristics of the muscle. The physiological result of the switches in gene expression are that the muscles of fish acclimated to low environmental temperatures develop more force and more power at these temperatures than muscles from fish acclimated to warm environmental temperatures. Carp acclimated to warm temperatures have myosin with a greater thermostability but at a lower myofibrillar ATPase. 4293,1995,3,4,Agroforestry developments and potential in the Brazilian Amazon,Much attention in the media and scientific literature has focused on the destruction of tropical forests in Amazonia since the early 1970s| especially in the Brazilian states of Rondonia| Acre| Para and Mate Grosso. Concern is mounting that the peeling back of the forests is wiping out biodiversity| destroying soil resources| possibly exacerbating global warming| and provoking land conflicts| among other socioeconomic and ecological problems. Yet little regard has been paid to some of the promising agricultural developments in the region that are helping to counteract pressures on the remaining forest while recuperating debilitated areas. In particular| a pronounced trend towards planting a mix of tree crops on small farms throughout the basin augers well for the future of the rainforest and more sustainable agriculture. Agroforestry developments in Amazonia underscore the linkages between conserving biodiversity and more productive and resilient agricultural systems. 2599,1995,2,4,AIR-QUALITY AND ITS POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS OF THE NORTH-AMERICAN GREAT-PLAINS - AN OVERVIEW,Over the past several decades| numerous studies have been conducted on the impacts of air pollutants (air quality) on terrestrial ecosystems (crops and forests). Although ambient air is always composed of pollutant mixtures| in determining the relative air quality and its ecosystem impacts at a given geographic location and time| a predominant number of studies have shown that at the present time surface level O-3 is the most important phytotoxic air pollutant. Within the North American Great Plains| the precursors; for surface-level O-3 are mainly anthropogenic NOx and VOCs (volatile organic compounds). Texas and Alberta ta are the top regions of such emissions in the United States and Canada| respectively. This appears to be due mainly to the prevalence of natural gas and/or oil industry in the two regions and the consequent urbanization. Nevertheless| the total emissions of NOx and VOCs within the North American Great Plains represent only about 25-36% of the corresponding total emissions within the contiguous United States and the whole of Canada. Within the Great Plains many major crop and tree species are known to be sensitive to O-3. This sensitivity assessment| however| is based mainly on our knowledge from univariate (O-3 only) exposure-plant response studies. In the context of global climate change| in almost all similar univariate studies| elevated CO2| concentrations have produced increases in plant biomass (both crop and tree species). The question remains as to whether this stimulation will offset any adverse effects of elevated surface O-3 concentrations. Future research must address this important issue both for the Great Plains and for all other geographic locations| taking into consideration spatial and temporal variabilities in the ambient concentrations of the two trace gases. 4339,1995,4,4,AIR-TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS AND ENSO EFFECTS IN INDONESIA| THE PHILIPPINES AND EL-SALVADOR - ENSO PATTERNS AND CHANGES FROM 1866-1993,The major features in development of the ''El Nine-Southern Oscillation'' (ENSO) involve oscillation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere in an essentially unpredictable (chaotic) fashion. The system moves between extremes of the so-called ''warm events'' lasting one or two years and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and ''cold-events'' associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Historical data indicate that ENSO years as experienced by the Island of Java are either much warmer than non-ENSO years or only slightly| if at all| warmer than normal (non-ENSO) years. Hot-dry years within the ENSO warm event cycle are almost always followed by cooler wet years and vice versa. This pattern also extends to include the year immediately following the terminal year of an ENSO warm event set. The initial year of an ENSO warm event set may be either hot with a long dry season or relatively cool (nearer to the temperature of a non-ENSO year) and having a short dry season. In recent years| since 1950| of the 9 ENSO warm. events| the initial year tends to have been hot and dry for 6 (1951| 1957| 1963| 1972| 1982| 1991) and neutral or cool and wet for 3 (1968| 1976| 1986). An area of 88|000 ha burned in 1991 (Jakarta Post 30 November 1991) largely in Kalimantan in association with the 1991-1992 ENSO event| an extensive pall of smoke developed over Kalimantan| Singapore and Malaysia during September-October of 1991. Surface vegetation-based fires continued to burn in East Kalimantan as of 29 April 1992 and extended into the 1992 dry season| in response to the ENSO conditions carrying forward from 1991. The increasing annual trend in air-temperature exhibited by the mean monthly values over the period 1856-1993| for the Jakarta and the Semarang data taken together is 1.64 degrees C (0.0132 degrees C per year from 25.771 to 27.409 degrees C). The major industrial development in infrastructure for Jakarta has been significant only since 1980 or so and was not apparent before 1970 when the city had the aspect of an extended village with few large buildings (greater than 3-4 stories) and no extensive highways. The 1.65 degrees difference between 1866 and 1991 can presumably be partitioned into: (1) urban heat-island effect| (2) effect of deforestation| (3) effect of secular micro-climate shift| (4) influence of general global warming with particular reference to the tropics. When the blocks of non-ENSO years in themselves are considered| the deviations from the secular trend for warmest month mean temperatures in successive years are correlated with that of the next immediate year deviation so that either continual warming or cooling appears to take place from the termination of one ENSO to the initiation of the next. When the deviations around the secular trend shown by the warmest month average temperatures are summed for the inter-ENSO intervals (the separate non-ENSO years) the resultant ''heat-loading'' index is positively correlated with the following (initial) ENSO warmest month deviation from the overall ENSO warmest month secular trend. This provides an immediate predictive mechanism for the likely strength of an ENSO| in terms of the dry season impact to the Island of Java| should one occur in the next year to break a non-ENSO sequence. The length of the build-up and the build-up achieved seems not to be related. The relationship does not in itself however| predict the occurrence of the ''next'' ENSO. The data show that a consistent structure underlies ENSO events for the last century and a quarter. However| as a process monitored by mean monthly air-temperature measurements at Jakarta-Semarang| the system is changing in character with time in association with an overall atmospheric temperature increase in a way that involves increased intra-annual temperature fluctuations. In general ENSO years are associated with higher temperatures than non-ENSO years| with a significant negative correlation between subsequent years which are thereafter systematically cooler. This may be because the ENSO event actively mixes excess heat energy into the ocean-sink to an extent that is in direct proportion to the outstanding positive temperature deviation. A weak ENSO| preceded by a relatively modest temperature build-up in the lead-up non-ENSO years| then results in limited mixing which leads to a relatively warm subsequent year while a strong event leads to extensive mixing and so generally results in a following very much cooler year. Atmospheric temperature build-up possibly associated with the greenhouse effect may be coupled to an increasingly wider temperature swing in west and central Java associated with the warm pool influence but anchored by the ocean-sink. 2592,1995,2,3,An approach to modelling spatial changes of plant carbon:nitrogen ratios in southern Africa in relation to anticipated global climate change,The carbon to nitrogen (C:N) ratio is the main factor determining the forage quality of a plant| with a low C:N ratio indicating relatively good plant digestibility and a high C:N ratio inferring relatively poor forage quality. Global atmospheric composition and climate change effects on plant carbon to nitrogen ratios are thus likely to be important when predicting possible second-order impacts of the enhanced greenhouse effect on rangeland forage quality and the resultant feeding habits of foraging animals and herbivorous insects. Equations relating the assimilation of total carbon and nitrogen rates to monthly air temperature| the ambient CO2 level and soil fertility were used together with detailed spatial climatic and soil databases to simulate regional patterns of C:N ratios over southern Africa. Carbon to nitrogen ratios were estimated for both the present climate and for a possible future climate scenario defined by a general 2 degrees C mean daily temperature increase over southern Africa (but with latitudinal| seasonal and diurnal adjustments made)| an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration from 360 to 560 ppmv| but with no changes in precipitation patterns. When C:N differences between future and present climates are examined| results indicate both relative increases and decreases over southern Africa in a regional context| ranging from - 8 to + 8%. Areas where the C:N ratios decreased indicate that for the future climate scenario which was assumed the relative increase in assimilated nitrogen would be greater than that for carbon. Similarly| areas where the C:N ratios increased indicate that the relative increase in assimilated carbon would be greater than that for nitrogen. In this study| regions sensitive to climate change effects on C:N ratios in southern Africa have therefore been identified and with that| those areas where the consumption of plant matter may be expected to increase or decrease as a result of anticipated global climate change. 2585,1995,3,3,AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK TO ADDRESS CLIMATE-CHANGE (ESCAPE) AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE MODULES (MAGICC),ESCAPE (the Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing Emissions) is an integrated climate change assessment model constructed between 1990 and 1999 for DG XI of the Commission of the European Community by a consortium of research institutes headed by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU)| It has been designed to enable the user to generate future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (through an energy-economic model)| examine their impact on global climate and sea level (through two independent global climate models)| and illustrate some of the consequences of this global climate change at a regional scale for the European Community (through a regional climate scenario generator and impact models)| We provide a very brief overview of the ESCAPE model which| although innovative| suffers from a number of major limitations| Subsequent work in the CRU has concentrated on improvements to the global climate module and work has also commenced on an improved regional climate scenario generating module. These improvements will lead to a new integrated climate change assessment model| MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) which can easily be incorporated into new larger integrated frameworks developed by other institutes. 2545,1995,4,4,AN INTERCOMPARISON OF WET PRECIPITATION SCAVENGING SCHEMES AND THE EMISSION RATES OF RN-222 FOR THE SIMULATION OF GLOBAL TRANSPORT AND DEPOSITION OF PB-210,We simulated the transport of Rn-222 and its progeny Pb-210 using a global three-dimensional atmospheric tracer transport model. The purpose of this study was to understand the effects of wet deposition scavenging processes and the emission rate of Rn-222 On the global transport and deposition of Pb-210. We examined the deposition of Pb-210 aerosols due to wet scavenging in stratiform and convective precipitation. Four schemes for wet precipitation scavenging removal| and two assumed distributions of the emission rate of Rn-222| were studied and tested. One was assumed to have a global constant rate and in the other the constant rate was assumed to have changed with latitude. The results of the model simulations were compared with archived radionuclide data measurements from the Environmental Measurements Laboratory's global network of sampling stations. The model-calculated global distributions of the yearly mean of the surface air concentrations of Rn-222 and Pb-210| and the yearly mean total deposition of Pb-210 for 1986 data for each wet precipitation scavenging scheme studied are presented. For each scheme| we have also compared yearly mean total deposition and monthly averages of the surface air concentrations and the vertical distributions of Pb-210 with the measurements. We found that the Walton et al. (1988) scheme produces the best results of the four schemes studied. Although this scheme| when utilizing a constant emission rate| gives satisfactory results| use of an emission rate that changes with latitudes improves the bias of this scheme| particularly at high northern latitude sites. The model comparisons with the measurements helped us to validate and improve the model. This atmospheric tracer transport model can be used for the simulation of other radionuclide and nonradionuclide tracers for future studies related to global climate change. 4441,1995,2,4,ANNUAL BREEDING CYCLES IN MARINE-INVERTEBRATES AND ENVIRONMENTAL-TEMPERATURE - PROBING THE PROXIMATE AND ULTIMATE CAUSES OF REPRODUCTIVE SYNCHRONY,1. A general model of an annual reproductive cycle is developed and presented in two forms for semelparous and iteroparous organisms. 2. In the model a fixed period for spawning implies a fixed phase relationship between all components of the cycle and those external variables with an annual component. Causal relationships cannot be established by observations of concurence. 3. The physiological basis of causal relationship is being established for a number of marine invertebrate groups and some polychaete case histories are reviewed. 4. An important role for endogenous timing mechanisms that interact with external variables including temperature but also seasonal photoperiod and other factors is established. 5. An increase in mean sea temperature would cause a change in the temperature phase relationships of annual reproductive cycles when photoperiod has a significant role in the timing mechanism. 6. Local variation in the responses to environmental signals are expected in populations in different parts of the geographical range. Gene flow would provide a mechanism by which populations would respond to reductions of fitness arising from the changed phase relationships that are implied by global warming. 4336,1995,4,3,ANTHROPOGENIC ENVIRONMENTAL-POLLUTION - THE SHARE OF AGRICULTURE,The increase of environmental pollution is in direct relation to the consumption of fossil coal| gas and oil and the progressive growth of the world population. Since 1950 these issues increased considerably and they will continue to increase in the future. At the moment the population increases by 1.9 %| the consumption of energy between 2 and 3 % and the environmental pollution up to 3.5 % annually. With the progressive growth of the world population and the increase in prosperity in the developed countries the demand for food increased also progressively and therewith the productivity index of the units of arable land| by growing consumption of fertilizers and the installation of irrigation systems. At the same time the pollution of air| water and soil caused by agriculture also grew progressively. But up to date there is still a shortcoming of reliable statistical facts and figures. A higher productivity index of the units of arable land in the different ecoclimatic zones of the earth leads to higher production and consumption by an inevitably higher turnover of plant nutrients and diverse gaseous substances| for example carbon mono- and dioxide| diverse compounds of nitrogen etc. At the same time an excess of the ''critical loads'' for soil| air and water must be expected. The main items of the emissions produced by an intensified agriculture are| besides carbon mono- and dioxide| methane| nitric and nitrous oxide| ammonia and diverse hydrocarbons. A higher productivity index is consequently related to a higher consumption. This also leads to an intensified turnover of carbon dioxide. There is consequently a progressive input of carbon dioxide resulting from the emissions of burning fossil fuel in the recently produced and consumed biomass. This inevitably leads to a higher level of carbon dioxide in the air. A main source of emissions of methane and ammonia is animal breeding. In Austria at this time from each of the 3|508.000 hectars of land used by agriculture annual emissions of 63 kg methane and 11 kg ammonia are resulting theoretically. The use of organic and inorganic fertilizers| the growing cultivation of legumes and the emissions of nitrogen compounds resulting from burning processes elevate likewise the pool and the annual turnover of nitrogen compounds by production and consumption of biomass. Inevitably related to it is a growing amount of the annual input of nitrogen compounds to the air| the soil and the water. A rough approximation says that at present agriculture contributes to the global anthropogenic pollution of the environment (air| soil and water) 85 % of the ammonia| 81 % of the nitrous oxide| 35 % of nitric mono- and dioxide| 70 % of the methane| 52 % of the carbon monoxide and 21 % of the carbon dioxide. Not considered in the figure for carbon dioxide is the inevitable increase of the level of CO2 in the air by the elevated turnover of biomass. The world population growth in the future leads to an increasing contribution of agriculture to the anthropogenic environmental pollution. For the developed countries this is an obligatory challenge to avoid surplus production. On a global scale there must be a sensible reduction of animal breeding to reduce the high emissions of methane and ammonia from this sector of agriculture. It must also be considered| that by feeding animals with vegetable food stuff| which also could be used for direct nutrition of man| the efficiency of it is lowered by a factor of 1:10. In spite of a growing crisis to maintain the alimentation of the growing world population in many countries the nutrition of man must rapidly be centered on vegetable food stuff rich in protein. At the same time an essential reduction of the environmental pollution resulting from animal breeding could be realized. Beside of it and other reducing issues a continuous growth of the world population| the energy consumption and environmental pollution will make it necessary to observe the development and reactions in the environment by monitoring and phenological observations. The results must be used to counteract finally by looking for adaptation strategies. Considering the realities it must be realized that by all means to mobilize for counteracting the environmental pollution directly| a certain climate change will be inevitable. The consequences will also be an outstanding challenge for the agriculture. 4387,1995,3,4,APPROACHES AND CHALLENGES TO USE FREON PROPELLANT REPLACEMENTS,Freon propellants commonly referred to as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are involved in the destruction of the ozone layer. The countries participating in the Montreal Protocol voted in 1990 to require a phase-out of CFC production by the year 2000. In 1992| the phase-out was moved forward to 1996. There are two pharmaceutical consortia evaluating replacements for CFCs in metered dose inhalers (MDIs)| which include the development of HFA-134a by IPACT-I and the development of HFA-227 by IPACT-II. Neither of these replacement propellants contains chlorine so they have no potential to destroy ozone. In addition| each of these new propellants has less global warming potential than currently used CFCs. The IPACT organizations have comprehensive testing programs developed from consultation with global regulatory authorities. These programs are largely complete with respect to subchronic evaluations and current work is focused on long-term evaluations. Results have indicated that the new propellants are extremely benign and have an equal or better safety profile than the CFCs they are meant to replace. With the safety of the new propellants becoming more evident with time| new formulations of existing aerosol drugs are being developed. This testing includes stand-alone safety evaluations as well as studies of the drug in new propellant formulations directly compared to current CFC formulations. Comparison studies have shown that the safety profile of the new formulations is not different from that of the CFC formulations. In summary| the availability and desirability of the use of CFCs in MDIs is limited. Fortunately several alternative propellants to the CFCs are approaching development finalization. The testing program has shown that these replacements are acceptable from a safety assessment perspective and their introduction will assure that vital MDI therapy will continue uninterrupted. 4376,1995,2,4,ARTIFICIAL REGENERATION OF SPRUCE ON COLD| WET SOIL - 10 YEARS ALONG,Ten year results are presented from two reforestation sites in the Bowron drainage of British Columbia. Spruce (Picea glauca| P. engelmannii) of the same seedlot and stocktype| was planted at the same time on the same site-types. Site 1 (S1) utilized different sizes of inverted mineral mound s and Site 2 (S2) used mounding coupled with herbicide (glyphosate) site preparation or brushing treatments. Ten year survival on mounds was 100% at 52 and greater than 90% at S1. Control treatment survival was 34 and 66% at S1 and S2| respectively. Mounding increased 10 year stem volume (SV) by more than 300% over control at S1. Mounding or herbicide site preparation approximately doubled the SV over control while mounding plus herbicide site preparation resulted in a three fold increase of SV at S2. Pissoides leader weevil incidence was at endemic levels at both sites but it is expected to increase if global warming scenarios hold. This would reduce future site productivity. The most costly treatment to establish at S2| mounding plus herbicide site preparation| was the most cost effective at year 10. These data suggest that spending more at establishment can result in greater survival| growth and return on investment. 2562,1995,3,3,ASSESSING BRAZIL CARBON BUDGET .1. BIOTIC CARBON POOLS,Brazil contains the world's largest expanse of tropical forest| but its forests are experiencing high levels of conversion to other uses. There is concern that releases of CO2 and other greenhouse gases resulting from deforestation will contribute to global climate change| The total amount of C that could be released by deforestation depends upon the amount currently contained in the terrestrial biota and soils. Knowledge of the areas of Brazil's major ecosystems and land use types and their C densities was used to estimate the total amount of C stored in vegetation| litter and coarse woody debris| and soils| The total estimated C pools were (58-81) X 10(9) Mg C in vegetation| (6-9) X 10(9) Mg C in litter and coarse woody debris| and about 72 X 10(9) Mg C in soil. Over 80% of the vegetation pool was contained in the closed tropical moist forests of Brazil. 4456,1995,2,4,Atmospheric chemistry and environmental impact of hydrofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons,We review the available data concerning the atmospheric chemistry and environmental impact of a series of important hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). HFCs have no impact on stratospheric ozone. HCFCs have ozone depiction potentials which are 10-100 times less than CFCs. The direct global warming potentials of HFCs and HCFCs are approximately an order of magnitude less than those of the CFCs they replace. At the concentrations expected from their atmospheric degradation| none of the oxidation products of HFCs or HCFCs are noxious or toxic (e.g.| the concentration of CF3COOH in rainwater will be 3-4 orders of magnitude lower than that reported to have an impact on plants). 4410,1995,2,4,ATMOSPHERIC CO2| SOIL-NITROGEN AND TURNOVER OF FINE ROOTS,In most natural ecosystems a significant portion of carbon fixed through photosynthesis is allocated to the production and maintenance of fine roots| the ephemeral portion of the root system that absorbs growth-limiting moisture and nutrients. In turn| senescence of fine roots can be the greatest source of C input to forest soils. Consequently| important questions in ecology entail the extent to which increasing atmospheric CO2 may alter the allocation of carbon to| and demography of| fine roots. Using microvideo and image analysis technology| we demonstrate that elevated atmospheric CO2 increases the rates of both fine root production and mortality. Rates of root mortality also increased substantially as soil nitrogen availability increased| regardless of CO2 concentration. Nitrogen greatly influenced the proportional allocation of carbon to leaves vs. fine roots. The amount of available nitrogen in the soil appears to be the most important factor regulating fine root demography in Populus trees. 2569,1995,5,4,BE-10 DATING OF THE DURATION AND RETREAT OF THE LAST PINEDALE GLACIAL SEQUENCE,Accurate terrestrial glacial chronologies are needed for comparison with the marine record to establish the dynamics of global climate change during transitions from glacial to interglacial regimes. Cosmogenic beryllium-10 measurements in the Wind River Range indicate that the last glacial maximum (marine oxygen isotope stage 2) was achieved there by 21|700 +/- 700 beryllium-10 years and lasted 5900 years. Ages of a sequence of recessional moraines and striated bedrock surfaces show that the initial deglaciation was rapid and that the entire glacial system retreated 33 kilometers to the cirque basin by 12|100 +/- 500 beryllium-10 years. 2606,1995,4,4,BLUE HOLES - DEFINITION AND GENESIS,Blue holes are karst features that were initially described from Bahamian islands and banks| which have been documented for over 100 years. They are water-fined vertical openings in the carbonate rock that exhibit complex morphologies| ecologies| and water chemistries. Their deep blue color| for which they are named| is the result of their great depth| and they may lead to cave systems below sea level Blue holes are polygenetic in origin| having formed: by drowning of dissolutional sinkholes and shafts developed in the vadose zone; by phreatic dissolution along an ascending halocline; by progradational collapse upward from deep dissolution voids produced in the phreatic zone; or by fracture of the bank: margin. Blue holes are the cumulative result of carbonate deposition and dissolution cycles which have been controlled by Quaternary glacioeustatic fluctuations of sea-level. Blue holes have been widely studied during the past 30 years| and they have provided information regarding karst processes| global climate change| marine ecology| and carbonate geochemistry. The literature contains a wealth of references regarding blue holes that are at times misleading| and often confusing. To standardize use of the term blue hob| and to familiarize the scientific community with their nature| we herein define them as follows: ''Blue holes are subsurface voids that are developed in carbonate banks and islands; are open to the earth's surface; contain tidally-influenced waters of fresh| marine| or mixed chemistry; extend below sea level for a majority of their depth; and may provide access to submerged cave passages.'' Blue holes are found in two settings: ocean holes open directly into the present marine environment and usually contain marine water with tidal now; inland blue holes are isolated by present topography from surface marine conditions| and open directly onto the land surface or into an isolated pond or lake| and contain tidally-influenced water of a variety of chemistries from fresh to marine. 2590,1995,2,4,BRAZIL CARBON BUDGET FOR 1990S,A major reason for alarm over the rate and magnitude of deforestation in Brazil has been concern that the reduction in vegetation releases carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHG) that may contribute to global climate change. While deforestation releases CO2 and other GHG| however| tree growth elsewhere absorbs atmospheric carbon (C) through photosynthesis. discussions of CO2 releases from tropical deforestation have tended to focus on gross releases and have generally not considered the effects of carbon uptake. The objective of this paper is to examine the net C balance for Brazil| by estimating both CO2 - C release and uptake. Our approach was to construct a generalized conceptual model of ecosystem C cycling that could be applied to any vegetation type and can be quantified with available data. the primary C pools in the model are the atmosphere| live vegetation| litter and coarse woody debris| and soil. Fluxes are represented as transfer between these pools that occur as a result of land use change| disturbance or recovery from past disturbance by plant growth and accumulation of organic matter. To estimate ecosystem areas| we used and adapted the most recently completed and current vegetation map available (Stone et al. in press). The primary sources for C density data were a report compiled by Olson et al (1983) and a subsequent version. We also used an alternative C density for closed moist forest from Brown and Lugo (1992). These forests play a major role in Brazil's C balance| but there is some uncertainty regarding their C density. We attempted to bracket this uncertainty by using both high and low values. We also used published data to calculate flux estimates. A major flux in Brazil's C budget is release to the atmphere resulting from deforestation. In 1990| 1.38 x 10(6) ha of closed forest were cleared in Brazil. Additionally| about 1.0 x 10(6) ha of cerrado woodland also cleared. We also estimated that 0.35 x 10(6) ha of secondary forest were cleared that year. Total C releases for the country as a whole were 174 - 233 x 10(6) tc/yr. The difference was caused mostly by differing estimates in the C density of closed tropical moist forests| which resulted in different fluxes from deforestation and burning. Net changes in pool sizes of our C budget model varied. The total vegetation C pool decreased by 160 - 240 x 10(6) tc/yr. The soil pool also lost C| about 80 x 10(6) tc/yr as a result of disturbance from forest clearing and intensive agriculture. However| the litter/coarse woody debris pool increased by 70 - 90 x 10(6) tc/yr. This increase was due to transfers from the vegetation pool due to clearing of closed tropical moist forest. Total gross C uptake by the system was 100 x 10(6) tc/yr of which 60 x 10(6) was addition to litter and soil pools in secondary forets. Total C releases were 120 - 150 x 10(6) tC/yr from deforestatio/burning and 150 - 180 x 10(6) tC/yr from decomposition. Most of the C released from burning was derived from above-ground vegetation but a significant amount also came form litter and coarse woody debris| including from reburning of residual logs and pastures. 4473,1995,3,3,BREAKING EVEN WITH GAS - AN UPDATE ON FUEL SWITCHING CALCULATIONS,A life cycle analysis approach is employed to determine the combined potential global warming impacts of carbon dioxide| methane and nitrous oxide emissions arising from the production| supply and use of coal| oil and natural gas in the United Kingdom. The study pays particular attention to recurring claims that the methane emissions associated with gas industry activities are removing the inherent low carbon advantage of natural gas. The results illustrate that natural gas maintains a clear lead as the least impacting fossil fuel and further demonstrates that the higher utilisation efficiency that natural gas maintains over coal and oil systems in many industrial| commercial and domestic applications| increases those advantages still further. 4423,1995,2,4,Can disturbance determine vegetation distribution during climate warming? A boreal test,Models of terrestrial vegetation distribution change during warming have generally paid little attention to ecological disturbances such as fire| even though these have been shown to be vitally important. A model predicting regionally dominant terrestrial vegetation in catastrophically disturbed landscapes is proposed: probability of a disturbance adapted species leaving progeny (P-r) is (1-1/M)(j)-(1-1/M)(s)| where M is the mean return interval between disturbances| j is the age of organisms at onset of reproduction| and s is the age at which reproduction ceases. For non disturbance-adapted species| the model simplifies to (1-1/M)(j). The model was tested in fire-prone boreal forest landscapes in Ontario| Canada (48 degrees 00'-52 degrees 00'N| 80 degrees 00'-95 degrees 30'W). A vegetation map whose classes and class geographical distributions were predicted using the above model was compared with a standard vegetation map. Three upland vegetation classes: poplar-pine| spruce-pine-poplar and spruce-fir were predicted| as well as an organic class representing non fire-prone vegetation on peat. These classes were almost the same as those in the standard map and the vegetation distribution was comparable (vegetation correctly predicted for 61.4% of the area| chi square P < 0.005). Thus the model can predict dominant vegetation in this system| implying that the distribution of boreal biome subzones in central Canada is largely governed by fire occurrence. To predict climate warming impacts| fire in the model was increased to 1.5 and 5 times the 1926-75 area| with a resultant shift of predicted vegetation zones to the north and east. 4318,1995,2,3,CARBON BALANCE IN THE TUNDRA| BOREAL FOREST AND HUMID TROPICAL FOREST DURING CLIMATE-CHANGE - SCALING-UP FROM LEAF PHYSIOLOGY AND SOIL CARBON DYNAMICS,Carbon exchange by the terrestrial biosphere is thought to have changed since pre-industrial times in response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and variations (anomalies) in inter-annual air temperatures| How ever| the magnitude of this response| particularly that of various ecosystem types (biomes)| is uncertain| Terrestrial carbon models can be used to estimate the direction and size of the terrestrial responses expected| providing that these models have a reasonable theoretical base| We formulated a general model of ecosystem carbon fluxes by linking a process-based canopy photosynthesis model to the Rothamsted soil carbon model for biomes that are not significantly affected by water limitation| The difference between net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic soil respiration (R(h)) represents net ecosystem production (NEP)| The model includes (i) multiple compartments for carbon storage in vegetation and soil organic matter| (ii) the effects of seasonal changes in environmental parameters on annual NEP| and (iii) the effects of inter-annual temperature variations on annual NEP| Past| present and projected changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and surface air temperature (at different latitudes) were analysed for their effects on annual NEP in tundra| boreal forest and humid tropical forest biomes| In all three biomes| annual NEP was predicted to increase with CO2 concentration but to decrease with warming| As CO2 concentrations and temperatures rise| the positive carbon gains through increased NPP are often outweighed by losses through increased R(h)| particularly at high latitudes where global warming has been (and is expected to be) most severe. We calculated that| several times during the past 140 years| both the tundra and boreal forest biomes have switched between being carbon sources (annual NEP negative) and being carbon sinks (annual NEP positive)| Most recently| significant warming at high latitudes during 1988 and 1990 caused the tundra and boreal forests to be net carbon sources| Humid tropical forests generally have been a carbon sink since 1960| These modelled responses of the various biomes are in agreement with other estimates from either field measurements or geochemical models| Under projected CO2 and temperature increases| the tundra and boreal forests will emit increasingly more carbon to the atmosphere while the humid tropical forest will continue to store carbon| Our analyses also indicate that the relative increase in the seasonal amplitude of the accumulated NEP within a year is about 0.14% year(-1) for boreal forests and 0.23% year(-1) in the tundra between 1960 and 1990. 4299,1995,3,3,Carbon dioxide emissions and global GDP,A positive relationship between carbon dioxide emissions| the most important greenhouse gas (GHG) implicated in global warming| and GDP is shown in this paper| examining per capita income and CO2 emissions of 137 countries across 21 years. It also appears that as per capita incomes accelerate across countries emissions increases| for the most part| tend to decelerate. It could be that higher income levels lead to increased demand for environmental protection. Only emissions reduction proposals that assure incomes will not be adversely affected| particularly those of less developed countries (LDCs)| will have any possibility of successful implementation. 2549,1995,3,4,CARBON MITIGATION SCENARIOS FOR MEXICAN FORESTS - METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS AND RESULTS,This paper examines three future scenarios for carbon emissions and sequestration in Mexican forests. The first is a Reference scenario that incorporates low and high emission estimates derived from different assumptions of deforestation rates in Mexico; the second is a Policy scenario that incorporates seven carbon mitigation options for reducing future net car bon emissions from the forest sector; and the third is a Technical Potential scenario that shows the maximum technically-feasible carbon sequestration achievable in Mexican forests by the year 2030. A consistent method for estimating the net unit carbon sequestration associated with different carbon mitigation options in the forest sector provides the basis for estimating the carbon implications of the different scenarios. The study suggests that cumulative carbon sequestration ranges from 2.2 to 4.4 gigatons of cal bon (GtonC) by the year 2030| depending on the scenario. Realizing this carbon sequestration potential could significantly offset emissions from the energy sector. Management of native temperate and tropical forests| and restoration of degraded forest lands| particularly when linked to energy plantations| offer the most promising alternatives for carbon sequestration. 4455,1995,2,3,CARBON STORAGE IN FOREST SOILS,The amounts of carbon stored in soils and vegetation in Britain| and the potential of forestry to influence| whether soils act as sinks or sources| are discussed. Soils are estimated to contain c.22 X 10(9) t carbon| while the amount in vegetation including forests is only 115 X 10(6) t. Some 86 per cent of the soil carbon is present in pears and peaty-surfaced soils| mainly in north-west Britain. Soil carbon content is strongly related to climate and altitude. Conversion of lowland cultivated land to forest can result in carbon accumulation in soils| as it can following the planting of some uplands| but quantities appear to be small in relation to the amounts carbon released to the atmosphere through fossil fuel use. Forest felling may result in decreases in soil carbon store| due to soil disturbance and changes in microclimatic conditions| but several decades after reafforestation the carbon store may recover to near original levels. Shortening forest rotations may result in long-term declines in soil carbon store. The main concern is the potential for forestry to convert peats| which contain amounts of carbon equivalent to 100 years' fossil fuel use at 1988 levels and which are normally slow sinks for atmospheric carbon| into carbon sources returning it to the atmosphere. The possible impacts of forestry and global warming on rates of carbon loss from upland soils including peats are discussed. 4324,1995,2,4,CARBON-DIOXIDE AND TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON PIMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT,Predicting plant responses to changing atmospheric CO2 and to the possible global warming are important concerns. Effects of CO2 on developmental events are poorly documented| as is the interaction of CO2 and other major climate variables on crop development. The objective of this experiment was to determine the effects of an altered CO2 environment and interactions of CO2 and temperature on pima cotton developmental rates. Pima cotton (Gossypium barbadense L. cv. S-6) was grown from seed in sun-lit plant growth chambers. Air temperatures were controlled from 20/12 to 40/32 degrees C (day/night) in 5-degree increments. Daytime CO2 was maintained at 350 or 700 mu L L(-1). In a second experiment| the temperature was maintained at 30/22 degrees C day/night and the plants were grown in 350| 450| or 700 mu L L(-1) CO2. Days required to develop nodes on the mainstem| days from emergence to first square| number of vegetative and fruiting branches| number of fruiting sites produced| number of bells and squares produced| and number of bells and squares retained by the plants were determined. Rates of mainstem node formation and the time required to produce the first square and first flower were not sensitive to atmospheric CO2| but were very sensitive to temperature. Prefruiting branch nodal positions required longer to develop than nodes with fruiting branches. Carbon dioxide levels did not affect the time required to produce nodes. Number of branches produced was sensitive to both temperature and CO2. The larger number of bells set on the lower branches of plants grown at high CO2 provided a larger sink for photosynthate than plants grown at low CO2. This may be the reason for the observed reduction in number of fruit at the upper nodes of high-CO2-grown plants. More bells and squares were produced and retained on plants grown in high-CO2 environments| except that none were produced in either CO2 environment at 40/32 degrees C. Our results indicate that high-temperature-tolerant cotton cultivars would be more productive in the present-day CO2 world| and they would be essential in the future if global temperature increases. 4407,1995,3,4,CARBONYL SULFIDE - NO REMEDY FOR GLOBAL WARMING,The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer caused by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (June 15| 1991)| and the subsequent cooling of the earth's lower atmosphere [Dutton and Christy| 1992; Minnis et al.| 1993] shows that stratospheric aerosols can have a strong effect on the earth's climate. This supports the notion that the intentional enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer through increased carbonyl sulfide (OCS) emissions might be an effective means for counteracting global warming. Through the use of a one-dimensional photochemical model| we investigate what effect such a program might have on global average stratospheric ozone. In addition| we consider the impact of enhanced OCS emissions on rainwater acidity and on the overall health of both plants and animals. We find that while the warming produced by a single CO2 doubling (1 to 4-degrees-C) might be offset with ozone losses of less than 5%| any attempt to use carbonly sulfide as a permanent solution to global warming could result in depletion of global average ozone by 30% or more. We estimate that in order to achieve cooling of 4-degrees-C rainwater pH would fall to between 3.5 and 3.8. Finally| a 4-degrees-C cooling at the surface will require that ambient near ground OCS levels rise to above 10 ppmv which is probably greater than the safe exposure limit for humans. Thus| enhanced OCS emissions do not provide an environmentally acceptable solution to the problem of global warming. 2563,1995,2,4,CHANGES IN MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT THE PIC-DU-MIDI IN RELATION WITH HUMIDITY AND CLOUDINESS| 1882-1984,In an attempt to contribute to the investigation on a global climate change| a historical series of minimum and maximum temperature data at the Pic du Midi| a mountain observatory at 2862 m a.s.l. in the French Pyrenees| is updated after correction of a systematic deviation due to a relocation of the station in 1971. These data| which now cover the 1882-1984 period| are examined in parallel with humidity and cloud cover data for the same period. From the beginning to the end of this period| observations show that the mean night-time temperature has increased by 2.39 degrees C/100 yr while the mean daytime temperature has decreased by 0.50 degrees C/100 yr. In consequence| the mean annual diurnal temperature range has dropped by 36%/100 yr. The maximum seasonal decrease is 46%/100 yr in spring| Season-to-season and year-to-year inter-relationships between minimum temperature| maximum temperature| relative humidity and cloud cover suggest that the decrease in maximum temperature is related to a concomitant increase of 15%/100 yr in both relative humidity and cloud cover. 4352,1995,3,4,CLASS-I ISOCYANURATE FOAMS BLOWN WITH PENTANE,The transition from CFCs to HCFCs and zero ODP compounds| as mandated by CFC phaseout protocol| is well under way in most areas of urethane foam production. Specifically| the laminate board industry is in the process of converting to HCFC-141b as an intermediate solution to R-11 blown foams. The switch will serve the industry for the next few years. However| HCFCs also destroy ozone| and 141b is perhaps the strongest ozone depleter among HCFCs in current use. Consequently| 141b must eventually be replaced with a zero ODP alternative. Recently announced EPA recommendations call for cessation of both production and consumption of 141b by the year 2003 [1]. Therefore| current research is concentrated on developing effective| economical| zero ODP options for laminate board production. The task is large| however| due to the many requirements imposed on the product. Good k-factors and flame resistance are important. In the past| these requirements were met through both the isocyanurate structure of the foam and the low flammability and thermal conductivity of the blowing gas. BASF is currently investigating the use of hydrocarbons such as pentane as blowing agents for laminate board. Hydrocarbons are inexpensive| abundant liquids which have a zero ODP (ozone depletion potential) and a low GWP (global warming potential). We have produced laminate board foams with reasonable k-factors (0.135-0.146) and surprisingly good flame resistance using n-pentane| cyclopentane| and 2-chloropropane [2]. The good k-factors and improved flame resistance have been achieved through the use of such tools as increased index| use of phosphorous-containing polyols| and the addition of halogenated inerting agents. Our results to date indicate that with a proper combination of these techniques| potential Class I rated laminate board blown with hydrocarbons is possible. 2589,1995,5,4,Climate change and its impact on tropical montane ecosystems in southern India,The montane regions (>2000 m MSL) of the Western Ghats in southern India feature stunted evergreen forests (C3 plant type) interspersed with extensive grasslands (C3 or C4 plant types). We have studied the vegetational history of this ecosystem in relation to climate change during the late Quaternary through stable-carbon isotope analysis of peat deposits as indicators of C3 or C4 plant types. Grasslands (of C4 type) were predominant during the last glacial maximum (20-18 kyr sp) and again during 6-3.5 kyr sp| while forest and possibly C3 grassland expanded during the deglaciation| attaining their peak distribution at 10 kyr sp. The shift in C3 and C4 plant types seems related to changes in moisture and atmospheric CO2| with lower moisture and CO2 levels favouring the latter plant types. The oscillating climate and vegetation has influenced the structure and composition of the montane ecosystem. Plant diversity of the near-pristine montane forests is relatively lower than other comparable sites in the neotropics. The implications of global change on the tropical montane ecosystem| in particular the composition of the angiosperm and vertebrate communities| are discussed. In particular| an expansion of montane forest and replacement of C4 with C3 grassland can be expected. Human impact on the natural vegetation| such as conversion of grasslands to monoculture plantations of wattle and eucalypts may| however| interfere with natural succession caused by global climate change. Endemic mammals such as the Nilgiri tahr would face increased risk of extinction. 4333,1995,4,1,CLIMATE RESPONSE TO INCREASING LEVELS OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND SULFATE AEROSOLS,CLIMATE models suggest that increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere should have produced a larger global mean warming than has been observed in recent decades| unless the climate is less sensitive than is predicted by the present generation of coupled general circulation models(1|2). After greenhouse gases| sulphate aerosols probably exert the next largest anthropogenic radiative forcing of the atmosphere(3)| but their influence on global mean warming has not been assessed using such models| Here me use a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to simulate past and future climate since the beginning of the near-global instrumental surface-temperature record(4)| and include the effects of the scattering of radiation by sulphate aerosols| The inclusion of sulphate aerosols significantly improves the agreement with observed global mean and large-scale patterns of temperature in recent decades| although the improvement in simulations of specific regions is equivocal| We predict a future global mean warming of 0.3 K per decade for greenhouse gases alone| or 0.2 K per decade with sulphate aerosol forcing included| By 2050| all land areas have warmed in our simulations| despite strong negative radiative forcing in some regions. These model results suggest that global warming could accelerate as greenhouse-gas forcing begins to dominate over sulphate aerosol forcing. 4323,1995,4,3,CLIMATE RESPONSE TO RADIATIVE FORCINGS BY SULFATE AEROSOLS AND GREENHOUSE GASES,The annual| global mean radiative forcing for the troposphere-surface system has been used to rank the global warming influences of atmospheric trace gases. The approach was also used recently to compare the cooling influence of tropospheric sulfate aerosols with the warming influence of greenhouse gases. However| the spatial inhomogeneity of sulfate aerosols (concentrated mainly in the continental Northern Hemisphere) may induce climate responses which differ other than just in sign from those induced by increased concentrations of the more homogeneously distributed greenhouse gases. Here we use a general circulation model to further examine the suitability of global mean radiative forcing as a predictor of differences in global| hemispheric| and regional climate responses to differing spatial and temporal forcing patterns. The calculated responses indicate that changes of the global and annual mean surface air temperature depend only on global average net forcing and are not highly sensitive either to the details of the spatial and seasonal patterns in forcing or to the nature of the forcing (shortwave vs. longwave). Thus in global and annual mean the negative aerosol forcing may be viewed as a scaleable anti-greenhouse forcing. However substantial responses to nonuniformly distributed aerosol forcing were observed at hemispheric and regional scales. Further| the patterns of response differ from the patterns of forcing| leading to the conclusion that the spatial distribution of all significant forcings must be accurately represented when studying regional climate changes. 4335,1995,2,4,CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND AGROECOLOGICAL CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PAMPAS OF ARGENTINA,Global warming is likely to alter natural and agricultural ecosystems| probably causing relocation of some of the major crop-producing regions| and a change in the geographic distribution of rangelands and forests. More important than the direct effect of the temperature increase| would be any alteration in the rainfall pattern in those many regions where rainfall limits crop production. The purpose of this work| which focuses on a traditional| semi-arid| cattle-cereal crop production area in the Central Pampas of Argentina| was to study structural and functional changes in this agroecosystem in response to the measured climate variability over a 30 year period| 1960-1990. Using long-term data| correlation analysis was used to estimate the degree of association between changes in the land use pattern on the one hand| and changes in rainfall| grain price and crop yield on the other hand. Crop yield was the result of an interaction between climatic and technological factors. The analysis also Linked climate variability with key agroecological factors such as hydrology| energy flow| and soil nitrogen balance. The results showed that changes in land use were highly correlated with the yield of crops| less correlated with rainfall| and poorly associated with crop grain prices. A positive correlation between the annual rainfall and the relative increase of the crop area was found for all districts analyzed. This change could largely explain the increased energy flow as well as nitrogen loss in the agroecosystem studied. Consequently| land use strategies should be considered with caution| especially during favorable climatic period in semi-arid environments. The same conditions that favor grain harvesting in these environments| may also set at risk the sustainability of a long-term| low-input agriculture. 4427,1995,2,4,CLIMATE| COPEPODS AND COD - SOME THOUGHTS ON THE LONG-RANGE PROSPECTS FOR A SUSTAINABLE NORTHERN COD FISHERY,Cod Gadus morhua stocks on the Labrador Shelf and Grand Banks| NW Atlantic| are apparently at an all-time low. While overfishing has undoubtedly occurred| it is probable that other factors are affecting stock recruitment as well. Water temperatures and salinity are also unusually low| which may have affected the abundance of cod in some way. Northern cod begin spawning in March in most stock management zones around Newfoundland| Canada. First-feeding cod larvae survive in waters less than 2 degrees C but require suitable prey| especially nauplii of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus| to grow well. The 'match/mismatch' hypothesis assumes that cod spawn at the same time each year| but spawning by copepods may or may not 'match' depending on the stimulus provided by the 'spring bloom' of phytoplankton| which can vary with environmental conditions by up to 6 wk. While C. finmarchicus is common in the Atlantic waters of the Labrador Sea and Grand Banks| zooplankton in the Labrador Current| especially during this period of low temperature and salinity| are dominated by 2 arctic copepods| C| glacialis and C| hyperboreus| which have different spawning seasons| and therefore probably would not provide a good nutritional match for young cod. Despite global warming| sea water supporting important demersal fish on the continental shelf off northeast Canada is presently colder and fresher than normal. Global warming may have induced melting of glaciers and sea ice and increased runoff in rivers entering the Arctic Ocean and its coastal drainage| reducing salinity at the sea surface| increasing stability and reducing deep convection| and hence upward heat transport. Several cold| fresh 'anomalies' have been observed in the last few decades and they have contributed to less favourable conditions at locations around the North Atlantic. These anomalies may be part of an interdecadal climate cycle of alternating warm and cold periods| the effects of which must be removed to clearly identify those associated with global warming. Whatever the causes| periods of 'ocean cooling'| with potentially serious consequences for the cod fishery| may be predictable. Increasing amounts of ice in the eastern Arctic and Greenland Sea are easily monitored by satellite and appear to anticipate reduced temperature/salinity anomalies in the Labrador Sea by about 4 yr. Climatic impacts| whether cyclic or continuing| could be identified sufficiently far in advance to enable modifications in management of the fishery toward at least mollifying their effects| thus improving the prospects for long-term sustainability. 4315,1995,2,4,CLIMATE-CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE - AN INDIAN PERSPECTIVE,In this paper| we examine the major predictions made so far regarding the nature of climate change and its impacts on our region in the light of the known errors of the set of models and the observations over this century. The major predictions of the climate models about the impact of increased concentration of greenhouse gases ave at variance with the observations over the Indian region during the last century characterized by such increases and global warming. It is important to note that as far as the Indian region is concerned| the impact of year-to-year variation of the monsoon will continue to be dominant over longer period changes even in the presence of global warming. Recent studies have also brought out the uncertainties in the yields simulated by crop models. It is suggested that a deeper understanding of the links between climate and agricultural productivity is essential for generating reliable predictions of impact of climate change. Such an insight is also required for identifying cropping patterns and management practices which are tailored for sustained maximum yield in the face of the vagaries of the monsoon. 2571,1995,2,4,CLIMATE-CHANGE AND VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES - A GLOBAL MODELING PERSPECTIVE,GCM-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change are used for the assessment of potential changes in areas vulnerable to malaria and schistosomiasis transmission. The study shows that the transmission potential of both vector-borne diseases is very sensitive to climate changes on the periphery of the present endemic areas and at higher altitudes within these areas. The health impact will be most pronounced in populations living in the less economically developed temperate areas in which endemicity is low or absent. 4360,1995,3,3,CO2 FIXATION AND OIL PRODUCTION THROUGH MICROALGA,As one way to prevent global warming due to carbon dioxide| microalgal oil production with secondarily treated sewage (STS) and thermochemical oil recovery from algal cells were studied. A hydrocarbon-rich microalga| Botryococcus braunii| produced hydrocarbons and consumed nitrate and phosphate in STS. Removal effects of the alga regarding As| Cd and Cr were observed during these experiments with an artificial medium. As for oil recovery from algal cells| the maximum yield of oil obtained by liquefaction was 64 wt% on a dry basis at 300 degrees C with a catalyst of sodium carbonate. 4359,1995,3,3,COGENERATION CONCEPTS FOR CO2 SEPARATION FROM POWER-PLANTS FOR ENHANCED OIL-RECOVERY APPLICATIONS,A large amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) is being produced from fossil fuel fired power plants and discharged into the atmosphere annually. As a result| the discharged CO2 is now suspected to have caused the greenhouse effect and global warming problem. To overcome this CO2 emission problem| there is great interest| especially in Canada| to capture carbon dioxide and utilize it as a flooding agent for the enhanced oil recovery (EOR) process. In the past few years| a number of feasibility studies and a few testing pilot projects on CO2 extraction from power plants were performed. However| their results have showed that even though it is technically feasible to extract CO2 from power plants| its cost is high for the EOR application in the current crude petroleum market. A major reason for the high cost is that the CO2 extracting process requires a substantial amount of energy. This paper demonstrates how cogeneration concepts together with optimization design strategies would help to reduce the CO2 production cost by utilizing low-pressure steams and waste-heats from various sections of the power generation processes for extracting CO2. The economics and technical feasibilities of these concepts are described and the practical implications given Western Canada's resources for EOR applications are discussed. 4388,1995,4,4,COMMENTS ON CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT,A short review is presented of progress in climate change scenario development. Sources of uncertainty are discussed. Critical assessment of climate models for their veracity in describing the present climate is considered essential. Methods of deriving sub-continental scale patterns of climate change| per degree of global warming| include the use of finer resolution global models| nested modelling| and spatial interpolation. Transient effects and the importance of extreme events are also discussed. 2591,1995,2,4,Comparative response on gas exchange of Picea spp exposed to increased atmospheric CO2 in open top chambers at two test sites,We took comparative measurements of gas exchange response curves of two species of spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst and Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) exposed to high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in two test stations: Vielsalm (Belgium) and Glendevon (United Kingdom). The photosynthetic response of these two species to variations in concentrations of intercellular CO2 and to variations in light intensity were measured in situ using an integrated transportable differential CO2 and water vapour exchange measuring system. The response curves were adjusted by the Mitscherlich function. The statistical analysis of our measurements and adjustments reveal similarities in the reaction of Picea abies and Picea sitchensis to a doubling of the present level of atmospheric CO2. Regarding the photosynthesis response curves to intercellular CO2 variation| we noted a decrease in the maximum photosynthesis rate and the carboxylation rate accompanied by an increased compensation point. Regarding the photosynthesis response curves to the light variation| we found that dark respiration and photochemical efficiency remained unchanged| and the maximum photosynthesis rate was slightly higher in an atmosphere enriched in CO2. These experimental contexts would seem to indicate that the current and forecast levels of CO2 are not ecological factors limiting primary productivity| and that the increase in atmospheric CO2 interacts with other environmental factors. 4453,1995,2,3,COMPARISON OF 5 WHEAT SIMULATION-MODELS IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA,Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to result in global warming which will affect crop production. Crop modelling is a useful tool for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. The objective of this study was to select an appropriate model for climate change studies. Five simulation models| EPIC| CERES| Century| Sinclair and Stewart| were assessed using data from a long-term experiment begun in 1911 on a day loam (Dark Brown Chernozem) soil at Lethbridge| AB. Yields predicted by the five models were compared with actual spring wheat yields in continuous wheat| fallow-wheat and fallow-wheat-wheat rotations. The EPIC model gave the best simulation results over all rotations and the most accurate predictions of mean yields during droughts. It was concluded that the EPIC model had the greatest potential for assessing the impact of climate change on wheat yield. The Stewart model was the most accurate for unfertilized continuous wheat and fallow-wheat. The Sinclair model was most accurate for fertilized fallow-wheat and CERES was the most accurate model for fertilized continuous wheat. The Century model simulated average yield accurately but did not account for year-to-year variability. 4442,1995,3,2,COMPARISON OF CHEMICAL SOLVENTS FOR MITIGATING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM COAL-FIRED POWER-PLANTS,There is a growing concern about the effect of greenhouse gases on global warming. Among the many greenhouse gases| CO2 produced from burning fossil fuels is a major contributor due to the huge volumes emitted into the atmosphere. According to the estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)| a worldwide reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases by more than 60% is necessary to avert significant global climate changes. This paper examines the key issues involved in greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power plants. At the present time| absorption by chemical solvents appears to be the best option for the separation of CO2 from low pressure flue gas streams. The costs of separation and disposal of CO2 from existing coal fired| air blown boilers are estimated to increase the cost of electricity by about 75%. Therefore| there is a need to optimize the selection of processing solvents and operating parameters to minimize the cost of separation. Increasing the inlet flue gas pressure did not improve mass transfer rates sufficiently to compensate for the higher compression costs. The effects of other process variables were also examined. In this work| we have examined the cost effectiveness of six ethanolamine-based solvents. Overall| monoethanolamine (MEA) was found to be the best solvent. 4448,1995,2,3,CONTAMINANTS AFFECTING THE ARCTIC CLIMATE| AND THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS,We are increasingly impressed with the idea that the climate system must be treated globally| and| by the same token| most contaminants affecting the Arctic and its climate have global origins. This is manifestly true of carbon dioxide and its influence on surface temperature through the greenhouse effect| and of chlorofluorocarbons that affect both the surface temperature and stratospheric ozone. In both of these cases| the response of the Arctic is more dramatic than that in the lower latitudes. Another type of contaminant that affects the Arctic climate in the springtime is the light-absorbing aerosols transported northward from industrial regions. Moreover| the Arctic includes several unique regional climatic feedback mechanisms| such as the effect that a global warming can have on the release of carbon dioxide and methane locked in the tundra and taiga (probably a positive feedback)| and the effect of shrinking sea ice and snowcover on the heat balance of the hemisphere (definitely a positive feedback). It has long been recognized that changes in ocean circulations| notably in the North Atlantic and Greenland Sea| can have a dominant effect on regional and global temperatures. All of these effects are unfortunately poorly treated in current climate and ecosystem models| and this introduces an element of uncertainty in predictions of global warming and the fate of contaminants in the Arctic. 2601,1995,3,3,COPATH - A spreadsheet model for the estimation of carbon flows associated with the use of forest resources,The forest sector plays a key role in the global climate change process. A significant amount of net greenhouse gas emissions emanate from landuse changes| and the sector offers a unique opportunity to sequester carbon in vegetation| detritus| soils and forest products. However| the estimates of carbon flows associated with the use of forest resources have been quite imprecise. This paper describes a methodological framework-COPATH-which is a spreadsheet model for estimating carbon emissions and sequestration from deforestation and harvesting of forests. The model has two parts| the first estimates carbon stocks| emissions and uptake in the base year| while the second part forecasts future emissions and the uptake under various scenarios. The forecast module is structured after the main modes of forest conversion| i.e. agriculture| pasture| forest harvesting and other land uses. The model can be used by countries which may not possess an abundance of pertinent data| and allows for the use of forest inventory data to estimate carbon stocks. The choice of the most likely scenario procides the country with a carbon flux profile necessary to formulate GHG mitigation strategies. 4382,1995,2,4,CORRELATION OF ICE LOAD WITH LARGE-SCALE AND LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN HUNGARY,Conditional probability of icing in correlation with local weather elements| as well as with different macrocirculation types are investigated on the basis of 23 years of daily observations for two stations situated in the Pannonian Plain (Debrecen) and in mountainous region (Kekesteto| 1000 m above sea-level). Empirical histograms are calculated and a theoretical model of the distribution is elaborated. Ice is generally twice as frequent at night as during the day. Icing is 5-6 times as frequent on the top of the hill as on the plain| especially considering larger water-contents. Macrosynoptic conditions favourable for icing are essentially different in the two circumstances. At the higher altitude icing is more frequent in cyclonic situations. Considerable load is often accompanied with southwesterly| southerly currents. On the plain station however the anticyclonic situations are somewhat more frequently accompanied with ice formation. Wind speed is practically indifferent at the top of the hill| but on the plain ice formation prefers low wind speeds. These differences are in coincidence with the a priori information of the different nature of ice load. Namely| at the top of hill in-cloud icing is the predominant form| while on the plain fine rime and frozen precipitation represent the overwhelming majority of ice load events. No clear differences in probabilities of icing in any of the above relations appear| however| between the two perpendicular directions of measuring devices. From among the possible applications of the results| a local scenario on ice load changes assuming a 0.5 K global warming is presented. 4303,1995,3,3,CREATING A GLOBAL WARMING IMPLEMENTATION REGIME,This paper proposes a global warming implementation regime which addresses the issues of equity| flexibility| cost minimization| and population growth. Previously proposed international policy instruments| such as country by country targets| carbon taxes| and tradable permits| face major difficulties as stand alone proposals. The key element of the regime proposed here is to combine annual tradable permits which are allocated based on population in a fixed year with a small carbon tax ($5-10/tonne) on emissions in excess of permits. Both permits and carbon taxes are applied to national level governments| which in turn would use whatever mix of policies desired to reduce national emissions. It is suggested that the initial number of permits correspond to total global emissions in the base year; over time| the number of permits could be reduced and the tax rate increased if improved scientific knowledge so dictates. By allocating permits based on population the equity concerns of developing countries are addressed| while taxing emissions in excess of permit holdings removes the rigidity of a quota system and limits resource transfers by effectively capping the permit trading price| which is a major concern of industrialized countries. To accommodate the difficulties of countries which have not yet achieved the demographic transition| the permit allocation scheme could be subject to a one-time adjustment after 10-15 years based on some weighting of the initial and then-current populations. The proposed scheme is based on the premise that there is a large potential for reducing emissions in developed countries or limiting emission increases in developing countries| and the intention is to create competition between national level governments in implementing cost-effective emission reduction. 4330,1995,2,3,Curbing coastal erosion - Example of Udvada (South Gujarat),An impending threat to our coastline is through the green house effect and the consequent rise in the sea-level. However| long before began the talk of global warming several of our shorelines came under the assault of the advancing sea. One of the glaring examples is of the settlement of Udvada in South Gujarat housing the oldest Fire Temple of the Parsis. The first onslaught occurred nearly five decades ago and gradually the beach has been eroding. Horizontal walls have not proved very effective IVT) doped with chromium oxide have been determined by A two pronged attack envisages protecting the beach by raising plantations of suitable species (Casuarina| Agave Ipomoea) to bind the sand| to serve as shelter belt preventing the salt spray from invading fertile land in the interior| reducing the salinity of well-water and soil (through back- mangrove species of economic importance like Salvadora). In a location facing acute fuelwood shortage| alternative energy plantations of fast growing species like Acacia holosericea will provide fire-wood for the weaker sections of the society| sparing the trees raised for the protection of the shorelines. Sloping| permeable walls and sand injection are alternatives on the engineering side. Understanding the problem from geomorphological angle is the first necessity. The experiment of combating sea-erosion launched by the Bombay based SAVE UDVADA Committee with support of the Central and State (Gujarat) Governments will lay a foundation for restoration work elsewhere in the country. 4379,1995,2,4,DEALING WITH ERROR IN SPATIAL DATABASES - A SIMPLE CASE-STUDY,There is now a considerable body of literature on the techniques available for modeling and communicating error in spatial databases. Some error models have solid statistical foundations| while the basis for others is nor so strong. In this paper| three basic approaches to the problem are examined. The application investigated is a fundamental one-to determine the position of a given terrain elevation value and to portray the resultant error of the answer. Such a problem can be of critical concern to communities in cases of flood plain mapping| determination of rising sea levels resulting from global warming| or delineation of the full supply level for a proposed reservoir. In this instance| the authors suggest that the application of simple probability theory| when combined with the error estimates supplied by data producers and current computer graphics capabilities| can provide users with more meaningful information concerning the error of their spatial database products. In turn| this information may allow them to better deal with an issue of growing concern. 4475,1995,3,3,DEVELOPMENT OF MICROCELLULAR OPEN CELL RIGID POLYURETHANE FOAMS,With the increasing concern over the threat of ozone depletion and global warming| the rigid polyurethane foam insulation industry is facing a major challenge of selecting alternatives for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Under the present situation| however| the effective means of solving this problem haven't been taken yet. Moreover| with more concern with the saving of energy worldwide| there is hope of insulators with higher performance. This paper reports on a micro cellular open cell polyurethane foam| which is very effective as a core material for evacuated insulators. In addition| thermal insulation panels with high performance are developed by utilizing the open cell foam as a core material. The evacuated insulators| so-called ''vacuum insulation panels|'' have an insulation effectiveness four times better than those of the conventional rigid polyurethane and polyisocyanurate foams (thermal conductivity is 0.005 W/mK) and are also very lightweight compared to those made of inorganic substances such as silica powder. The vacuum insulation panels were manufactured by packing the core material and absorbents in a film-like laminated plastic container| which is suitable for holding a vacuum| followed by sealing in the industrial vacuum level (0.01 approximately 0.1 mm Hg). We have developed the micro cellular (100 approximately 200 mum) and 100% open cell foam by selecting polyol compositions| modified polyisocyanates| surfactants and cell opening additives. The micro cellular open cell foam has excellent physical properties such as heat resistance| compressive strength and low shrinkage as well as non-scorch at the stage of slabstock foaming. These properties will be very important for manufacturing the vacuum insulation panels. The open cell foams were blown by using the most conventional and alternative blowing agents in rigid foam systems. In the near future| we hope that this open cell foam technology will contribute to the development of environmentally friendly and high performance products in the insulation industry. 4296,1995,2,4,Documenting and detecting long-term precipitation trends: Where we are and what should be done,A brief review of problems and achievements in documenting precipitation changes during the period of instrumental measurements is presented. Concern is expressed that without appropriate studies in the coming period of a new generation of precipitation measurements| technological progress in instrumentation may adversely and inadvertently affect our capability for monitoring and detecting future changes in terrestrial precipitation. At the same time| only a new generation of instrumentation will be capable of resolving the problems of monitoring precipitation over oceans. Special attention is paid to validation of the increasing trend in terrestrial precipitation observed during the past hundred years at high latitudes of the northern hemisphere - a feature of global warming predicted by most climate models. 4307,1995,4,5,DYNAMIC CONTRIBUTION TO HEMISPHERIC MEAN TEMPERATURE TRENDS,On the basis of land station data from the Northern Hemisphere| it was determined that roughly half of the temporal variance of monthly mean hemispheric mean anomalies in surface air temperature during the period from 1900 through 1990 were linearly related to the amplitude of a distinctive spatial pattern in which the oceans are anomalously cold and the continents are anomalously warm poleward of 40 degrees north when the hemisphere is warm. Apart from an upward trend since 1975| to which El Nino has contributed| the amplitude time series associated with this pattern resembles seasonally dependent white noise. It is argued that the variability associated with this pattern is dynamically induced and is not necessarily an integral part of the fingerprint of global warming. 2576,1995,2,2,ECOLOGICAL STABILITY OF FORESTS AND SUSTAINABLE SILVICULTURE,The ecological stability of forests is described and subsequently analyzed and discussed in relation to human impact. Forest management and utilization have a considerable influence on the stability and sustainability of forest ecosystems. Additionally| other human activities such as pollution and global climate change affect the present and future stability of our forests. The main components of stability are resistance (inertia| immovability) and resilience (recoverability). These are analyzed with respect to genetic diversity within and between species and in relation to the biogeochemical cycle. The possibilities and constraints of silviculture are then discussed in relation to sustainable management practices and strategies| i.e. choice of provenances and species| including species mixtures| tree breeding| harvesting practices| as well as the silvicultural system applied. Finally| forest decline is discussed in relation to stability by means of a stress integration model. 4472,1995,3,2,ECONOMICS OF A GLOBAL STRATEGY FOR REDUCTION OF CARBON EMISSIONS,The evolution of natural systems that feed and sustain human populations| and indeed the evolution of modern society| has occurred in the context of a moderate and stable climate. Therefore| recent trends in climate change| most likely caused by increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other radiative trace gases in the atmosphere| and the expected consequent global warming| are now a major concern. Carbon emissions from energy systems are considered one of the major contributors to climate change and are the focus of all studies on the prevention of climate changes and adaptation strategies. Two global energy scenarios (each with several options) are analysed in this paper: from a dynamic-as-usual concept to a more advanced concept with the goal of stabilizing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere (equivalent to about a 60% reduction of carbon emission compared with today's level)| It is shown that the stabilization approach will require dramatic changes in energy systems: the share of non-carbon fuels will increase to about three quarters of the total primary energy consumption| which will itself grow by a factor of two by the middle of the next century. Surprisingly| the implementation costs turn out to be approximately the same for all scenarios (taking into account possible errors in the cost appraisals for several decades ahead). However| the cost distributions between energy production and use are quite different. Globally| these costs are 3-4% of the GNP| but for developing countries the share of energy investments is| on average| about 7-8% of the GNP| which is cause for concern and will greatly hamper economic and social progress in the Third World. The introduction of energy taxes or carbon taxes in developed countries and the raising of 'global energy funds' could help developing countries to overcome these difficulties. It is supposed that such a policy would stimulate economic growth in developing countries and| as a feedback| overlap the GNP losses in developed countries. The paper attempts to evaluate an optimal strategy for reducing carbon emissions for the next couple of decades| when large uncertainties surround global warming| and to show ways of establishing 'no-regret' policy. 4364,1995,3,3,ECOSYSTEM DRIVEN BY OTEC AND OCEANIC HIGH MINERAL-WATER - OTOHIME PROJECT,A new system is proposed for mitigating global warming using a high productivity of coral reef ecosystems and ocean thermal energy conversion systems (OTEC) The system is called ''Otohime''. Deep sea water is fed to a coral reef of 100km(2) at a feeding rate of 3.1 X 10(5)m(3)/h| electricity of 25MW is generated| CO2 of 5.8 X 10(4)t-C/y is fixed| and furthermore global temperature can be reduced by 4 X 10(-6)degrees C. 4319,1995,3,4,EFFECT OF FLUCTUATION OF SURFACE SEA-WATER TEMPERATURE AND AMBIENT-PRESSURE ON EVAPORATION RATE OF EVAPORATOR IN BAROMETRIC TYPE OC-OTEC SYSTEM,Global environmental problems| such as global warming and the effects of acid rain| are expected to become more serious in the future. One methodology for solving this problem uses harmless energy resources. Ocean energy is one of such energy resources. This research involves a study of the OC-OTEC system| which is one type of ocean thermal energy conversion technology. In this system| the steam that drives a turbine is generated in an evaporator and condenses in a condenser after passing through a turbine. However| the steam evaporating rate in an evaporator is affected by the fluctuations of surface sea water temperature and ambient pressure. Therefore| it is necessary to define the dynamic characteristics of the evaporator in order to gain constant power output. This paper presents an analysis as to how evaporation rate is affected when surface sea water temperature and ambient pressure change. Further| we clarify that the dynamic characteristics of the evaporator are more affected by fluctuations in the ambient pressure than in surface sea water temperature. 4337,1995,2,4,Effect of monocropping on maize yield on meadow soil in long-term fertilization experiments,The yield changes' of maize produced in crop-rotation and monoculture were studied on the basis of data collected from filed experiments on meadow soil. The experiments are part of the National Long-Term Fertilization Experiment started in 1966. Applied crop-rotations in the experiment: a) triculture: pea - wheat - maize - maize; b) biculture: wheat - maize - wheat; c) monoculture: since 1966. The soil characteristics of the experiments are: difficult tillage| slow mineralization of N in the springtime and considerable absorption of P| K. The study covers the period between 1982-1993. I present the amounts of the yearly precipitation (Table 1.) and precipitation fallen in the vegetation period of maize compared to the average. Heavy drought occurred in 1982-83-86-90-93. During the examined 12 years the precipitation was 1600.7 mm less than the 50-years average. Because of the global warming half of the examined years were droughty. Maize can tolerate the partial monoculture considerably well| but after 10-15 years of monocropping the yield decreases by 1-3 t/ha in droughty years compared to the yields achieved in crop rotation. Monocultural maize yields decreased significanty in 1983|'90|'92|'93. The best forecrop for maize was the wheat. The forecrop influences the requierement for fertilizer. The best yields were obtained as follows: after wheat in triculture (pea-wheat-maize) with a dose of 50-60 kg/ha N| in biculture (wheat-maize) with a dose of 60-80 kg/ha N| after maize in biculture with a dose of 80-100 kg/ha N| and in monoculture with a dose of 100-120 kg/ha N. In monoculture cropping the number of bacteria in the soil decreased significantly. The number of bacteria in 1 g soil was 59 million after wheat| 285 million after maize| and only 16 million in monoculture cropping| which can effect the soil life considerably. In monoculture cropping the Zn content of the grain decreased by 4-5 mg/kg which can limit the yield or cause losses in nutritive value. The yield decrease of monocultural maize can be explained by the impoverishment of the soil water supply. Thus the monocropping of maize| particularly in areas with poor rainfall| must be placed into crop-rotation after 10-15 years of monoculture. The risk of monocropping should be decreased by using partial monoculture| a hybrid with good adaptability| 5-10 thousand less plant density per hectare and irrigation if the conditions are given. 4440,1995,2,4,EFFECTS OF A SUMMER TEMPERATURE REGIME REPRESENTATIVE OF A GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIO ON GROWTH AND PROTEIN-SYNTHESIS IN HARDWATER-ACCLIMATED AND SOFTWATER-ACCLIMATED JUVENILE RAINBOW-TROUT (ONCORHYNCHUS-MYKISS),1. Growth| appetite| gross conversion efficiency and protein turnover rates of liver| gills and white muscle were measured in juvenile rainbow trout chronically exposed (90 days) to soft and hardwater at two temperatures (ambient| ambient temp. +2 degrees C). The temperature regime followed that of inshore Lake Ontario over the months of June-September 1993 as temperature rose from similar to 13 to 24 degrees C. 2. Over the initial 60 days of exposure| the addition of 2 degrees C to the ambient temperature increased growth| appetite| gross conversion efficiency and protein turnover by an average of 16%. However| further exposure during the period of peak ambient temperatures| led to an average 20% reduction in growth| appetite| gross conversion efficiency and protein turnover. 3. Increased rates of gill protein turnover and arguably lower rates of growth indicate that the cost of living for a trout acclimated and maintained in synthetic softwater is higher than that of hardwater fish. In addition| lower appetite in softwater fish suggest that life in softwater is itself a mild form of environmental stress. 4429,1995,2,4,EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC-CHANGE ON TREES FROM COOL AND TEMPERATE REGIONS - AN ECOPHYSIOLOGICAL APPROACH TO MODELING OF BUD BURST PHENOLOGY,A framework is presented for meddling bud burst phenology of trees from the cool and temperate regions. Three ecophysiological aspects affecting the timing of bud burst are considered: (i) effects of environmental factors on the rest status of the bud| (ii) effect of rest status on the ability for bud burst| and (iii) direct effect of air temperature on the rate of development towards bud burst. Any model for bud burst phenology can be presented within the framework with three submodels| each of them addressing one of the corresponding three ecophysiological aspects. A total of 96 hypothetical models were synthesized by combining submodels presented in the literature. The models were tested in two experiments with saplings of Pinus sylvestris L. growing in experimental chambers at their natural site in eastern Finland. In the first experiment| air temperature and (or) concentration of atmospheric CO2 was elevated. Elevation of the air temperature hastened bud burst| whereas elevation of the concentration of CO2 did not affect it. Several models accurately predicted the timing of bud burst for natural conditions but too early for bud burst at the elevated temperatures. This finding suggests that (i) the risk of a premature bud burst with subsequent frost damage| as a result of climatic warming| was overestimated in a recent simulation study| and (ii) bud burst observations in natural conditions alone are not sufficient for the testing of these mechanistic models. Several models did predict the timing of bud burst accurately for all treatments| but none of them obtained sufficiently strong support from the findings to stand out as superior or uniquely correct. In the second experiment a photoperiod submodel for rest break was tested by exposing the saplings to short-day conditions. The short-day treatment had only a minor effect on the timing of bud burst. These results demonstrated the importance of the concept of model realism: the accuracy of a model can be lost in new conditions (e.g.| global warming)| unless the model correctly addresses the essential ecophysiological aspects of the regulation of timing of bud burst. 4316,1995,2,4,EFFECTS OF COLD AND WARM YEARS ON THE WATER CHEMISTRY AT THE BIRKENES CATCHMENT| NORWAY,During the last years| several scientists have been concerned with the consequences of global warming. In the Birkenes catchment| situated in southernmost Norway| several warm years have occurred during the last decade. In this climatic region| warm years primarily mean warmer winters with mean air temperatures close to or higher than 0 degrees C. Small temperature changes are therefore decisive for the quality of precipitation| i.e. whether the precipitation enters the catchments as snow or rain| which accordingly has large consequences for the residence time of water and its pathways through the catchment. Another important effect of higher winter-temperatures at Birkenes| is that stronger and more frequent seasalt episodes seem to occur. This may enhance the negative effects to aquatic organisms| because the most extreme concentrations of acute toxic Al-forms in streamwater are related to seasalt episodes during warm winters| when the precipitation comes as rain and thus leaves the catchment relatively fast through the uppermost soil layers. When seasalt-enriched water enters into the uppermost soil horizons| a large amount of sodium will be temporarily retained due to cation exchange processes| where sodium may substitute for H+ and cationic Al. At Birkenes| but also in similar acidified areas with high seasalt input| seasalt episodes are probably of greater importance for the periodic variations in streamwater H+ and Al-n+ than commonly recognized. Higher winter-temperatures may also change the timing of the highest streamwater fluxes of nitrate. This may have local consequences for the primary-production in the fjords| both quantitatively and qualitatively. Thus| global warming may have negative consequences for the surface water chemistry in near-coastal areas that also receive high amounts of acidifying atmospheric compounds| and may change the eutrophication status of many fjords. 4447,1995,4,4,EFFECTS OF ELECTRON AND ION REACTIONS ON ATMOSPHERIC LIFETIMES OF FULLY FLUORINATED COMPOUNDS,Atmospheric lifetimes are evaluated for the fully fluorinated compounds CF4| C2F6| c-C4F8| C6F14| and SF6 using a two-dimensional transport and chemistry model which includes removal by electrons and ions in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Laboratory measurements of the pertinent reaction rates were carried out at thermal energy for free electrons and for the atmospheric ions O+| O-2(+) O-2(-)| O-2(-)| NO+| H3O+| NO3-| and CO3-. Atmospheric removal by electrons reduces the lifetimes of c-C4F8 and SF6 from about 3200 years to 1400 and 800 years| respectively| only if the respective product anions C4F8- and SF6- do not subsequently regenerate the parent neutral compounds. Atmospheric removal by ion reactions is minor or negligible| with the largest effect (similar to 5%) being removal of C6F14 by O-2(+). Removal of CF4 and C2F6 by O+ is probably the most important single destruction process in the atmosphere for these two compounds| but their lifetimes are governed by removal at the Earth's surface in high-temperature combustors. While we show that the lifetimes of c-C4F8 and SF6 may be significantly shorter than previously estimated| these compounds remain extremely long-lived with significant global warming potentials. 4465,1995,2,4,EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON ENERGY USE FOR SPACE HEATING AND COOLING IN THE UNITED-STATES,This study uses a three-step approach to estimate the impact of global warming on U.S. energy expenditures for space heating and cooling in residential and commercial buildings. First| average results from six different global circulation models are used to estimate the change in heating and cooling degree days in five U.S. climate zones associated with a 1 degrees centigrade (C) global warming. Second| the change in degree days is mapped into a corresponding change in U.S. energy use for space conditioning| taking account of differences in population and baseline space conditioning intensity levels across regions| under the assumption that desired indoor temperature is unaffected by climate change. Finally| we estimate the associated change in energy expenditures. We find that a global warming of 1 degrees C would reduce projected U.S. energy expenditures in 2010 by $5.5 billion (1991 dollars). This contrasts with earlier studies which have suggested modest global warming would increase U.S. expenditures on space conditioning energy. 2578,1995,2,4,EFFECTS OF INCREASED SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET-RADIATION ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS,Aquatic systems supply humans with vast amounts of food| primarily in the form of finfish| shellfish and seaweed. More than 30% of the world's animal protein for human consumption comes from the sea| and in many countries| particularly the developing countries| this percentage is significantly higher. As a result| it is important to know how increased levels of exposure to solar UV-B radiation (280-315 nm) might affect the productivity of aquatic systems. In addition| the oceans play a key role with respect to global warming. Marine phytoplankton are a major sink for atmospheric carbon-dioxide| and they have a decisive role in the development of future trends of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. The relative importance of the net uptake of carbon dioxide by the biological pump in the ocean and by the terrestrial biosphere is a topic of much current research. Phytoplankton form the foundation on which the very survival of aquatic food webs depends. Marine phytoplankton are not uniformly distributed throughout the oceans of the world. The highest concentrations are found at high latitudes while| with the exception of upwelling areas on the continental shelves| the tropics and subtropics have 10 to 100 times lower concentrations. In addition to nutrients| temperature| salinity and light availability| the high levels of exposure to solar UV-B radiation that normally occur within the tropics and subtropics may play a role in phytoplankton distributions. A major loss in primary biomass productivity may have significant consequences for the intricate food web in aquatic ecosystems and affect food productivity. It has been estimated that a 16% ozone depletion could result in a 5% loss in phytoplankton| which equals a loss of about 7 million tons of fish per year. Biological effects of small changes in UV-B exposure may be difficult to determine because the biological uncertainties and variations are large| and the baseline productivity for pre-ozone-loss eras is not well established. Phytoplankton productivity is limited to the euphotic zone| the upper layer of the water column in which there is sufficient sunlight to support net productivity. The position of the organisms in the euphotic zone is influenced by the action of wind and waves. In addition| many phytoplankton are capable of active movements that enhance their productivity and| therefore| their survival. Like humans| phytoplankton cannot perceive| and thereby avoid| UV-B radiation. Exposure to solar UV-B radiation has been shown to affect both orientation mechanisms and motility in phytoplankton| resulting in reduced survival rates for these organisms. Researchers have directly measured the increase in| and penetration of| UV-B radiation in Antarctic waters| and have provided conclusive evidence of direct ozone-related effects within natural phytoplankton communities. Making use of the space and time variability of the UV-B front associated with the Antarctic ozone hole| researchers assessed phytoplankton productivity within the hole compared to that outside the hole. The results show a direct reduction in phytoplankton production due to ozone-related increases in UV-B. One study has indicated a 6-12% reduction in the marginal ice zone. In recent years| there has been increased interest in UV-B effects on macroalgae and seagrasses. In contrast to the phytoplankton| most macrophytes are attached to their growing site| thereby restricting them to specific growth areas and the resultant exposure to UV-B radiation. Recent studies have demonstrated that photosynthesis is inhibited in many red| brown| and green benthic algae. Solar UV-B radiation has been found to cause damage to early developmental stages of fish| shrimp| crab| amphibians and other animals. The most severe effects are decreased reproductive capacity and impaired larval development. Even at current levels| solar UV-B radiation is a limiting factor| and small increases in UV-B exposure could result in significant reduction in the size of the population of consumer organisms. At high latitudes (over 40 degrees N) the late-spring increases in UV-B exposure may affect some species because the UV-B enhancement occurs at critical phases of their development. Even small increases or temporary fluctuations in UV-B may affect relatively sensitive species. Recent studies have addressed the potential impact of chlorofluorocarbon substitutes and their degradation products. Some hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)| notably HFC134a| HCFC123| and HCFC124| are degraded| generating trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) as their main product. TFA is mildly toxic to most marine and freshwater phytoplankton. It is still speculative if TFA is concentrated in the food web. Even if produced well into the next century| TFA is unlikely to reach toxic levels for oceanic phytoplankton; however| it could reach toxic levels in restricted aquatic systems. Although there is overwhelming evidence that increased UV-B exposure is harmful to aquatic ecosystems| the potential damage can only be roughly estimated at the present time. 4341,1995,3,3,EFFICIENCY| SUSTAINABILITY AND GLOBAL WARMING,Economic analyses of global warming have typically been grounded in the theory of economic efficiency. Such analyses may be inappropriate because many of the underlying concerns about climate change are rooted not in efficiency| but in the intergenerational allocation of economic endowments. A simple economic model is developed which demonstrates that an efficient economy is not necessarily a sustainable economy. This result leads directly to questions about the policy relevance of several economic studies of the issue. We then consider policy alternatives to address global warming in the context of economies with the dual objectives of efficiency and sustainability| with particular attention to carbon-based taxes. 4362,1995,3,3,EFFORTS OF ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN JAPAN TO REDUCE CO2 EMISSION,This paper discusses the present status of efforts made by Japanese electric utilities| including plans to realize the optimal combination of fossil power and hydraulic power with nuclear power as the main power source| the increase of energy use efficiency| studies on CO2 recovery and fixation| and international cooperation related to these efforts. Also| as an example of efforts made by Japanese electric utilities| this paper discusses the efforts of Kansai Electric Power Company to prevent global warming. This discussion centers on attempts to make technological breakthroughs| such as studies on CO2 recovery and fixation| and international joint research project on the development of tropical forests regeneration technology. 4313,1995,4,3,Emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture| land-use change| and forestry in the Gambia,The Gambia has successfully completed a national greenhouse gas emissions inventory based on the results of a study funded by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/Global Environment Facility (GEF) Country Case Study Program. The concepts of multisectoral| multidisciplinary| and interdisciplinary collaboration were most useful in the preparation of this inventory. New data were gathered during the study period| some through regional collaboration with institutions such as Environment and Development in the Third World (ENDA-TM) Energy Program and the Ecological Monitoring Center in Dakar| Senegal| and some through national surveys and the use of remote sensing techniques| as in the Bushfires Survey. Most of the data collected are used in this paper. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Organisation for Economic Go-operation and Development/International Energy Agency (IPCC/OECD/IEA) methodology is used to calculate greenhouse gas emissions. Many of the default data in the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology have also been used. Overall results indicate that in the biomass sectors (agriculture| forestry| and land-use change) carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted most| with a total of 1.7 Tg. This is followed by methane (CH4)| 22.3 Gg; carbon monoxide (CO)| 18.7 Gg; nitrogen oxides (NOx)| 0.3 Gg; and nitrous oxide (N2O)| 0.014 Gg. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) was used as an index to describe the relative effects of the various gases reported here. Based on the emissions in The Gambia in 1993| it was found that CO2 will contribute 75%| CH4 about 24.5%| and N2O 0.2% of the warming expected in the 100-year period beginning in 1993. The results in this analysis are limited by the shortcomings of the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology and scarce national data Because the methodology was developed outside of the developing world| most of its emissions factors and coefficients were developed and tested in environments that are very different from The Gambia. This is likely to introduce some uncertainties into the results of the calculations. Factors and coefficients that are country- or region-specific are likely to provide more accurate results and should be developed. The surveys were conducted either during the wet season or just at the end of the wet season. This seasonal factor should contribute to variations in the results| particularly in the livestock numbers and composition survey. Use of one-time survey data is also likely to introduce uncertainty into the results. 4431,1995,2,4,ENVIRONMENTAL AND SUBSTRATE CONTROLS OVER CARBON AND NITROGEN MINERALIZATION IN NORTHERN WETLANDS,Northern wetlands may be a potential carbon source to the atmosphere upon global warming| particularly with regard to methane. However| recent conclusions have largely been based on short-term field measurements. We incubated three wetland soils representing a range of substrate quality for 80 wk in the laboratory under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions at 15 degrees and 30 degrees C. The soils were obtained from a Scirpus-Carex-dominated meadow in an abandoned beaver pond and from the surface and at 1 m depth of a spruce (Picea)-Sphagnum bog in Voyageurs National Park| Minnesota. Substrate quality was assessed by fractionation of carbon compounds and summarized using principal components analysis. Nitrogen and carbon mineralization| the partitioning of carbon between carbon dioxide and methane| pH| and Eh were measured periodically over the course of the incubation. The responses of nitrogen mineralization| carbon mineralization| and trace gas partitioning to both temperature and aeration depended strongly on the substrate quality of the soils. Sedge meadow soil had the highest nitrogen and carbon mineralization rates and methane production under anaerobic conditions| and carbon mineralization under aerobic conditions| but the surface peats had the highest nitrogen mineralization rates under aerobic conditions. Methanogenesis was highest in the sedge soil but less sensitive to temperature than in the peats. A double exponential model showed that most of the variation in nitrogen and carbon mineralization among the soils and treatments was accounted for by differences in the size and kinetics of a relatively small labile pool. The kinetics of this pool were more sensitive to changes in temperature and aeration than that of the larger recalcitrant pool. Principal components analysis separated the soils on the basis of labile and recalcitrant carbon fractions. Total C and N mineralization correlated positively with the factor representing labile elements| while methanogenesis also showed a negative correlation with the factor representing recalcitrant elements. Estimates of atmospheric feedbacks from northern wetlands upon climatic change must account for extreme local variation in substrate quality and wetland type; global projections based on extrapolations from a few field measurements do not account for this local variation and may be in error. 4328,1995,3,2,ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF SEQUESTERING CARBON THROUGH FORESTATION,An issue that arises when considering the potential damages of climate change is whether it is possible to slow or stop human caused climate change. One suggestion to reduce the threat of global warming is to change our management of forests to offset carbon emissions. This study examines the impacts of such a policy on environmental amenities in existing Douglas-fir forests. In this analysis Douglas-fir forest management is modelled in a Faustmann framework| where the forest produces three goods: timber| carbon sequestration and amenities. Using this framework| the level of amenities under profit-maximizing and carbon-sequestration management regimes are compared. The change in the level of seven specific amenities is modelled. These amenities include trout| wildlife diversity| visual aesthetics| soil stability| deer populations| elk populations| and water yield. The study finds that the effect of a carbon sequestration policy will depend on the discount rate chosen. In most situations externalities vary less than plus or minus ten percent. However| those externalities that exhibit discontinuities in their relationship to forest age may vary a hundred percent or more depending on the discount rare used. 2553,1995,4,4,ESTIMATION OF SOYBEAN YIELDS AT COUNTY AND STATE LEVELS USING GLYCIM - A CASE-STUDY FOR IOWA,Global climate change could have a significant impact on important food crops such as soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.]. To assess the impact of these environmental changes| estimates of crop yields are needed| with special reference to regional responses in key production areas. The objective of this study was to examine the performance of the GLYCIM soybean crop model in modeling regional soybean yields in Iowa at the state and county level| over a 20-yr period. The GLYCIM model has been extended to run for multiple years and combined with aggregations of soil and weather data to provide simulation over large areas| Soils data were aggregated to the soil association level in 18 sample counties so as to provide two-county data sets in each Crop Reporting District (CRD). Weather files for each CRD spanning the period 1972 to 1991 were used to provide current climate information. Simulation runs were made for each year and county. Statewide yields were estimated as an average of county yields. Statistical measures of simulation success indicated that| using aggregated characteristics| the model was best able to simulate the 20-yr mean yield at the state and county level| as well as long-term yield variability. Poorer results of modeling yields in particular years were obtained. This validation establishes the model's ability to simulate long-term yield averages under current conditions| and lays the groundwork for future simulations using altered climate scenarios. 2582,1995,2,4,EVALUATING GROWTH OF THE PORCUPINE CARIBOU HERD USING A STOCHASTIC-MODEL,Estimates of the relative effects of demographic parameters on population rates of change| and of the level of natural variation in these parameters| are necessary to address potential effects of perturbations on populations. We used a stochastic model| based on survival and reproduction estimates of the Porcupine Caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) Herd (PCH)| during 1983-89 and 1989-92 to obtain distributions of potential population rates of change (r). The distribution of r produced by 1|000 trajectories of our simulation model (1983-89| rBAR = 0.013; 1989-92| rBAR = 0.003) encompassed the rate of increase calculated from an independent series of photo-survey data over the same years (1983-89| r = 0.048; 1989-92| r = -0.035). Changes in adult female survival had the largest effect on r| followed by changes in calf survival. We hypothesized that petroleum development on calving grounds| or changes in calving and post-calving habitats due to global climate change| would affect model input parameters. A decline in annual adult female survival from 0.871 to 0.847| or a decline in annual calf survival from 0.518 to 0.472| would be sufficient to cause a declining population| if all other input estimates remained the same. We then used these lower survival rates| in conjunction with our estimated amount of among-year variation| to determine a range of resulting population trajectories. Stochastic models can be used to better understand dynamics of populations| optimize sampling investment| and evaluate potential effects of various factors on population growth. 2598,1995,4,4,EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF ELEVATED LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC TRACE GASES ON HERBS AND SHRUBS - A PROTOTYPE DUAL ARRAY FIELD EXPOSURE SYSTEM,In the context of global climate change| an understanding of the long-term effects of increasing concentrations of atmospheric trace gases (carbon dioxide| CO2| ozone| O-3| oxides of nitrogen| NOx etc.) on both cultivated and native vegetation is of utmost importance. Over the years| under field conditions| various trace gas-vegetation exposure methodologies with differing advantages and disadvantages have been used. Because of these variable criteria| with elevated O-3 or CO2 levels| at the present time the approach of free-air experimental-release of the gas into study plots is attracting much attention. However| in the case of CO2| this approach (using 15 m diameter study plot with a single circular array of vent pipes) has proven to be cost prohibitive (about $59000-98000/year/replicate) due to the consumption of significant quantities of the gas to perform the experiment (CO2 level elevated to 400 ppm above the ambient). Therefore| in this paper| we present a new approach consisting of a dual concentric exposure array of vertical risers or vent pipes. The purpose of the outer array (17 m diameter) is to vent ambient air outward and toward the incoming wind thus providing an air curtain to reduce the velocity of that incoming wind to simulate the mode or the most frequently occurring wind speed at the study site. The inner array (15 m diameter) vents the required elevated levels of trace gases (CO2| O-3| etc.) into the study plot. This dual array system is designed to provide spatial homogeneity (shown through diffusion modeling) of the desired trace-gas levels within the study plot and to also reduce its consumption. As an example| while in the single-array free-air CO2-release system the consumption of CO2 to elevate its ambient concentration by 400 ppm is calculated to be about 980 tons/year/replicate| it is estimated that in the dual array system it would be approximately 590 tons/year/replicate. Thus| the dual array system may provide substantial cost savings ($24000-39000/year/replicate) in the CO2 consumption ($60-100/ton of CO2) alone. Similarly| benefits in the requirements of other trace gases (O-3| NOx| etc.) are expected| in future multivariate studies on global climate change. 4428,1995,2,2,EVALUATION OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF METHANE CLATHRATE DESTABILIZATION ON FUTURE GLOBAL WARMING,Future global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases has the potential to destabilize methane clathrates| which are found in permafrost regions and in continental slope sediments worldwide| resulting in the release of methane gas. Since methane is a strong greenhouse gas| this could produce a potentially important positive feedback. Here| the coupled heat transfer and methane destabilization process in oceanic sediments is modeled in a series of one-dimensional| vertical columns on a 1 degrees x 1 degrees global grid. Terrestrial permafrost is divided into 11 columns based on mean annual surface air temperature. Our base case clathrate distribution results in about 24|000 Gt C as methane clathrate in marine sediments and about 800 Gt C in terrestrial sediments| only a small fraction of which could be destabilized by future global warming. Scenarios of anthropogenic CO2( )and CH4 emission are used to drive a simple model| of the carbon cycle| yielding scenarios of CO2 and CH4 concentration increase. These increases drive a one-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model. Globally averaged temperature changes as a function of time and ocean depth are used as upper boundary conditions to drive the heat transfer/methane clathrate release models. Three versions of the ocean model are used which result in different temperature perturbations at the sediment-water interface: a purely diffusive ocean model| an upwelling-diffusion ocean model with fixed temperature of bottom water formation| and an upwelling-diffusion ocean model with a feedback between surface temperature and the upwelling velocity. Methane release from clathrate destabilization is added to the anthropogenic CH4 emission| leading to stronger increases in both CH4 and CO2 concentration. Based on a wide variety of parameter input assumptions and anthropogenic emission scenarios| it appears that the potential impact on global warming of methane clathrate destabilization is smaller than the difference in warming between low and medium| or medium and high anthropogenic CO2 emission scenarios| or arising from a factor of two variation in climate sensitivity. Global warming increases by 10-25% compared to the case without clathrate destabilization for our scenarios using what| in many respects| are worst case assumptions. 4380,1995,2,4,FIRE| GLOBAL WARMING| AND THE CARBON BALANCE OF BOREAL FORESTS,Fire strongly influences carbon cycling and storage in boreal forests. In the near-term| if global warming occurs| the frequency and intensity of fires in boreal forests are likely to increase significantly. A sensitivity analysis on the relationship between fire and carbon storage in the living-biomass and ground-layer compartments of boreal forests was performed to determine how the carbon stocks would be expected to change as a result of global warming. A model was developed to study this sensitivity. The model shows if the annual area burned in boreal forests increases by 50%| as predicted by some studies| then the amount of carbon stored in the ground layer would decrease between 3.5 and 5.6 kg/m(2)| and the amount of carbon stored in the living biomass would increase by 1.2 kg/m(2). There would be a net loss of carbon in boreal forests between 2.3 and 4.4 kg/m(2)| or 27.1-51.9 Pg on a global scale. Because the carbon in the ground layer is lost more quickly than carbon is accumulated in living biomass| this could lead to a short-term release of carbon over the next 50-100 yr at a rate of 0.33-0.8 Pg/yr| dependent on the distribution of carbon between organic and mineral soil in the ground layer (which is presently not well-understood) and the increase in fire frequency caused by global warming. 4371,1995,2,3,FOSSIL-FUELS AND RESPONSES TO GLOBAL WARMING,The main point of this paper is that we| with or without climate change as a driving force| should expect to see major surprises both in energy and energy technologies in the decades to year 2050. If antropogenic climate change emerge as a major and global driving force| the likelihood for CO2-sequestration.(for electricity and hydrogen production) to take a share of the energy market is quite high. Catastrophic scenarios based on the whole fossil fuel reserve being burned and emitted to the atmosphere is not realistic. 4395,1995,2,4,GENOME SIZE PREDICTS FROST-RESISTANCE IN BRITISH HERBACEOUS PLANTS - IMPLICATIONS FOR RATES OF VEGETATION RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING,1. Simulated late frost was applied to five herbaceous plant communities in Derbyshire| UK. The results establish a clear positive relationship between the frost resistance of the above-ground biomass and independently published estimates of genome size. 2. Previous studies have established that in small genome species the dependence of growth upon current cell divisions dictates that development is delayed until warmer summer conditions. As a result of this| we suggest that selection pressures promoting frost tolerance will have been less pronounced in these species and that in temperate climates their potential responsiveness to global warming could be curtailed by the continued occurrence of late-frost events. 2546,1995,5,4,GEOCHRONOLOGY OF DROWNED HAWAIIAN CORAL-REEFS,Two deeply submerged coral reefs were sampled with the HURL submersible Pisces V off the islands of Hawaii and Maul. An ancient fringing reef at 950 m depth on the Kohala dope of Hawaii was observed from deep-towed camera photographs and during submersible operations. A second reef at 1650 m depth on the Haleakala slope of Maul was observed on side-scan images| deep-towed camera photographs and during submersible observations. Ages of the two reefs were determined by electron spin resonance dating with a signal intensity for aragonitic coral at g = 2.0007 used to ascertain the accumulated dose by the additive dose method. Uranium concentration was measured by neutron activation analysis. The chronology of the reefs indicates that drowning coincided with periods of rapid global climate change at the termination of continental glaciation at approximately 250 ka and 340 ka. The drowning events correlate with oxygen isotope stage boundaries 7/8 and 9/10. These data support models of reef drowning on subsiding volcanic edifices. 4458,1995,4,5,GLACIERS AND GLOBAL WARMING,Ice core and mass balance studies from glaciers| ice caps and ice sheets constitute an ideal medium for monitoring and studying present and past environmental change and| as such| make a valuable contribution to the present debate over anthropogenic forcing of climate. Data derived from 32 years of measurements in the Canadian Arctic show no significant trends in glacier mass balance| ice melt| or snow accumulation| although the mass balance continues to be slightly negative. Models suggest that industrial aerosol loading of the atmosphere should add to the warming effect of greenhouse gases. However| we have found a sharp increase in the concentration of industrial pollutants in snow deposited since the early 1950's which makes the trendless nature of our various time series surprising. Spatial differences in the nature of climatic change may account for the lack of trend in the Queen Elizabeth Islands but encourages similar investigations to this study elsewhere in the circumpolar region. A global warming trend over the past 150 years has been demonstrated from instrumental data and is evident in our ice cores. However| the ice core data and glacier geometry changes in the Canadian Arctic suggest the Arctic warming is more pronounced in summer than winter. The same warming trend is not unique when viewed in the context of changes over the past 10|000 or 100|000 years. This suggests the 150-year trend is part of the natural climate variability.
2548,1995,3,3,GLOBAL CLIMATE RESEARCH - INFORMING THE DECISION-PROCESS,Public awareness of the potential for global climate change resulting from human activities has grown substantially in recent years. Policy actions aimed at greenhouse gas emissions include international accords such as the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change| national goals such as those set out in the U.S. Climate Change Action Plan| and state-level consideration of carbon dioxide emissions in integrated resource planning. Over half of human greenhouse gas emissions are believed to be CO2. Thus the energy sector plays an important role in strategies to address the potential for climate change. Policy actions taken to mitigate the potential for climate change could affect electric utilities in many ways| as could actual changes in climate. EPRI conducts a wide-ranging research program that includes estimating the macroeconomic costs of compliance with emissions reduction proposals determining the potential impacts of climate change| and developing integrated assessments to explore the advantages of various policy alternatives. EPRI has initiated a comprehensive effort to provide individual member utilities with the analytical tools they need to develop their own strategies for meeting emissions reduction goals. 2600,1995,2,4,GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE - MODELING THE POTENTIAL RESPONSES OF AGROECOSYSTEMS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO CROP PROTECTION,Pests and diseases reduce yields to lower levels than those that could have been potentially obtained| given the restrictions of climate| nutrients and crop varieties. Climatic change not only affects the potential yield levels| but it may also modify the effects of pests and diseases. Modelling can serve as a tool to integrate these processes| ranging from simple removal of plant material to subtle toxic and hormonal effects. Modelling can help to quantify different modes of action such as on photosynthesis| root activity| assimilate partitioning| morphology| and their interactions. As to climatic change| little is known about pests| diseases and weeds. If climatic change causes a gradual shift of agricultural regions| crops and their associated pests| diseases and weeds will migrate together| though at different rates maybe. To a limited extent| new outbreaks can be foreseen given the changed environmental conditions. Methodology is available| and some interesting results are on record. Specific changes such as an increase in the CO2 content in the air and in UV radiation ave not likely to have large effects. Increasing atmospheric CO2 reduces crop nitrogen content| which may retard many pests and diseases| and change the composition of the weed flora which accompanies crops. Some cautionary remarks are made to avoid jumping to conclusions. 4385,1995,3,3,GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS TRADING - EARLY LESSONS FROM THE US ACID-RAIN PROGRAM,The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is implementing a program of SO2 emission allowance trading as part of the Acid Rain Program authorized by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Electric utilities may use allowance trading as part of their compliance strategy to meet SO2 emission reduction requirements| which begin in 1995. In the interest of a free market in emission credits| some utilities began trading in 1992. A strict but essential requirement for continuous-emissions monitoring was developed to support the trading program. This program is being widely watched and will be evaluated as part of an effort to determine if market concepts can be successfully extended to other environmental issues. One such issue is greenhouse gas emissions and their link with global warming and climate change. This paper focuses on the early lessons learned| issues| and challenges involved in going from a domestic electric utility SO2 emissions trading program to inter-industry| inter-gas and international as well as national emissions trading and offsets programs. Prominent among these issues are CO2 allowance allocations| equity| emissions monitoring| enforcement| and cost-effectiveness. 2540,1995,2,4,Global forest systems: An uncertain response to atmospheric pollutants and global climate change?,Forest systems cover more than 4.1 x 10(9) ha of the Earth's land area. The future response and feedbacks of forest systems to atmospheric pollutants and projected climate change may be significant. Boreal| temperate and tropical forest systems play a prominent role in carbon (C)| nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) biogeochemical cycles at regional and global scales. The timing and magnitude of future changes in forest systems will depend on environmental factors such as a changing global climate| an accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere| and increase global mineralization of nutrients such as N and S. The interactive effects of all these factors on the world's forest regions are complex and not intuitively obvious and are likely to differ among geographic regions. Although the potential effects of some atmospheric pollutants on forest systems have been observed or simulated| large uncertainty exists in our ability to project future forest distribution| composition and productivity under transient or nontransient global climate change scenarios. The potential to manage and adapt forests to future global environmental conditions varies widely among nations. Mitigation practices| such as liming or fertilization to ameliorate excess NOx or SOx or forest management to sequester CO2 are now being applied in selected nations worldwide. 4375,1995,2,4,GLOBAL MEAN SEA-LEVEL VARIATIONS FROM TOPEX/POSEIDON ALTIMETER DATA,The TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter mission has measured global mean sea level every 10 days over the last 2 years with a precision of 4 millimeters| which approaches the requirements for climate change research. The estimated rate of sea level change is +3.9 +/- 0.8 millimeters per year. A substantial portion of this trend may represent a short-term variation unrelated to the long-term signal expected from global warming. For this reason| and because the long-term measurement accuracy requires additional monitoring| a longer time series is necessary before climate change signals can be unequivocally detected. 4430,1995,2,4,GLOBAL WARMING AND SOIL MICROCLIMATE - RESULTS FROM A MEADOW-WARMING EXPERIMENT,We used overhead infrared radiators to add a constant increment of approximate to 15 W/m(2)| over 2 yr| to the downward heat flux on five 30-m(2) montane meadow plots in Gunnison County| Colorado| USA. Heating advanced snowmelt by approximate to 1 wk| increased summer soil temperatures by up to 3 degrees C| and reduced summer soil moisture levels by up to 25% compared to control plots. Soil microclimate response to heating varied with season| time of day| weather conditions| and location along the microclimate and vegetation gradient within each plot| with the largest temperature increase observed in daytime and in the drier| more sparsely vegetated zone of each plot. Day-to-day variation in the daily-averaged temperature response to heating in the drier zone was negatively correlated with that in the wetter zone. Our experimental manipulation provides a novel and effective method for investigating feedback processes linking climate| soil| and vegetation. 4432,1995,4,3,GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS - THE CASE OF EMISSIONS FROM DAMS,The global warming potential index (GWP) has been proposed to quantitatively compare the integrated greenhouse effect of different gases. However| the use of the GWP index is still subject to major conceptual difficulties. Here we revise and generalize this index and then apply our alternative index to the case of emissions from some hydroelectric reservoirs in Brazil. Our results suggest that| though the cumulative heating effects of emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs may be far from negligible| for the cases studied hydroelectricity in general contributes less to the greenhouse effect over a long time horizon than fossil fuelled electricity generation. 4450,1995,3,3,Global warming response options in Brazil's forest sector: Comparison of project-level costs and benefits,A project-level assessment of monetary and carbon costs and benefits for five classes of global warming response options in the forest sector is attempted for typical Brazilian conditions. Options considered are: silvicultural plantations (for pulp| charcoal and sawlogs)| sustainable timber management and reduction of deforestation. Comparison of pulpwood and sawlog plantations with the vegetation characteristic of deforested areas indicates a modest carbon benefit. Plantations for charcoal can produce a substantial carbon benefit through fossil fuel substitution| but much of this calculated benefit disappears if discount rates greater than zero are applied to carbon. Sustainable timber management| when compared with existing forest| represents a net carbon loss| accumulation of carbon in wood products being insufficient to compensate for biomass reduction over a 100 year time scale. Reduction of deforestation has great potential as a global warming response option| its per-hectare carbon benefits being approximately four times that of silvicultural plantation establishment for pulp and sawlogs over a 100 year period. The costs of reducing deforestation are difficult to assess| however| due to the importance of government policy changes such as removal of land speculation and land tenure establishment as motives for clearing. Although these changes would not cost money and would have tremendous carbon and other benefits| they have not yet occurred. 4454,1995,2,4,GLOBAL-SCALE FOREST FUNCTION AND DISTRIBUTION,A model is described for predicting the dynamic changes in the proportion of tree| shrub and grass life forms at the global scale. This model is driven by the impacts of climate| soils and CO2 on global vegetation leaf area index and net primary productivity. The life-form model has been used to explore the influences of global warming and continued CO2 increase on tree cover. This reflects a realization from other modelling work that forested vegetation| at the global scale| exerts significant influences on climate| and so it is important to assess the potential for this feedback under climatic change. An increase in CO2 from 350 to 560 p.p.m. is modelled to have only a small impact on tree cover| under current climate. A regionally-consistent and global increase in temperature of c.2 degrees C and a 10 per cent increase in precipitation| but with no increase in CO2| indicates a significant potential for trees to spread into current shrub tundra| over a period of 50 years This could lead to regional warming| through changes in winter albedo. The effect of the CO2 increase is most noticeable in interaction with increases in temperature (2 degrees C) and precipitation (10 per cent). In this case the life-form model projects further increases in tree cover| particularly in areas with seasonally low periods of precipitation. 4424,1995,2,3,GLOBAL-WARMING EFFECTS ON NEW-YORK STREAMFLOWS,Impacts of global warming on streamflows were estimated for four large watersheds in New York State using a daily streamflow model. Three different 100-yr daily weather sequences were input to the model. The first was produced using statistics of current (1961-90) weather records. The second and third sequences were based on modifications of these historic statistics according to the monthly mean temperature and precipitation changes associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 as predicted by two different general circulation models. For 2 x CO2 conditions| mean annual water balances for all four watersheds indicated modest (1-9%) decreases in precipitation| but much larger (16-42%) decreases in streamflow due to increases in evapotranspiration. Winter flows generally increased| but flows in the remaining seasons often decreased. Monthly streamflow changes varied considerably among watersheds| and we could not attribute these changes to specific differences in land uses or soils. 4309,1995,3,4,Greenhouse gas emission inventory for Senegal| 1991,The first greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimates for Senegal for the year 1991| were produced according to the draft IPCC/OECD guidelines for national inventories of GHGs. Despite certain discrepancies| nonavailability of data| the quality of some of the data collected| and the methodology| the estimates provide a provisional basis for Senegal to fulfill its obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This inventory reveals that GHG emissions in Senegal| like those in many developing countries| can mainly be attributed to the use of biomass for energy| land-use change and forestry| and savanna burning. Taking into account the direct global warming potential of the main GHGs (CO2| CH4 and N2O)| Senegal's emissions are estimated at 17.6 Tg ECO(2). The major gases emitted are CO2 (61% of GHG emissions)| followed by CH4 (35%) and N2O (4%). Energy accounts for 45% of total emissions (12% from fossil energy and 33% from traditional biomass energy); land-use change and forests| 18%; agriculture| 24%; waste| 12%; and industry| 1%. 2557,1995,2,3,GREENHOUSE HYDROLOGY,Hydrological processes are an integral component of both global climate change arising from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and the assessment of subsequent terrestrial impacts. This article examines the potential sensivity of water resources in the UK to climatic change as exemplified by the 1988-92 drought. The representation of hydrological processes at three distinct model scales is then discussed with reference to global hydrology| regional downscaling and catchment-scale responses. A final section speculates on future directions of research for an emerging greenhouse hydrology. 2580,1995,3,3,GREENHOUSE-GAS DECISION TOOLS,Global climate change is an environmental issue with important strategic ramifications for the electric utility industry. Although no mandatory greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions control programs now exist| many utilities have decided to participate in voluntary emissions reduction and reporting efforts under the Department of Energy's Climate Challenge program and the Energy Policy Act of 1992. Given uncertainty about possible future regulation and the potentially huge stakes of such regulation| utilities are increasingly faking GHG emissions into account in planning for the future. EPRI is developing a set of decision fools to help utilities in this effort. One of these products is a greenhouse gas accounting framework| scheduled for release this year. 4420,1995,3,3,HYDROELECTRIC DAMS IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON AS SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GASES,Existing hydroelectric dams in Brazilian Amazonia emitted about 0.26 million tons of methane and 38 million tons of carbon dioxide in 1990. The methane emissions represent an essentially permanent addition to gas fluxed from the region| rather than a one-time release. The total area of reservoirs planned in the region is about 20 times the area existing in 1990| implying a potential annual methane release of about 5.2 million tons. About 40% of this estimated release is form underwater decay of forest biomass| which is the most uncertain of the components in the calculation. Methane is also released in significant quantities from open water| macrophyte beds| and above-water decay of forest biomass. Hydroelectric dams release a large pulse of carbon dioxide from above-water decay of trees left standing in the reservoirs| especially during the first decade after closing. This elevates the expected global warming impact of-the dams to levels much higher than would occur by generating the same power from fossil fuels. In 1990| the impoundment behind the Balbina Dam (closed in 1987) had over 20 times more impact on expectable global warming than would generating the same power from fossil fuels| white the Tucurui Dam (closed in 1984) had 0.4 times the impact of fossil fuels. Because of the large area flooded per unit of electricity generated at Balbina| 'greenhouse' gas emissions are expected to exceed avoided fossil-fuel emissions indefinitely. 2547,1995,5,3,Identification of cultivated Pandanus and Colocasia in pollen records and the implications for the study of early agriculture in New Guinea,Pollen records from the island of New Guinea| spanning the last 60 000 years| show a vegetation system sensitive to global climate change and strongly influenced by anthropogenic activity. The evidence for anthropogenic activity in pollen diagrams has focused on indirect indicators such as forest clearance| burning and increases in arable weeds. Tracing individual cultivars has proven to be very difficult as the major cultivated plants| in this case dominated by root crops| have low pollen production| are insect-pollinated or are harvested before flowering occurs. The identification of some cultivars is further restricted by limited information on pollen morphology. The pollen morphology of selected species from two genera (Pandanus and Colocasia)| known to include important cultivated species| have been studied Five pollen taxa are recognised after examination by light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. It is shown that these can be easily distinguished on the broad criteria of pollen class| grain size and size of echini. The taxonomic and dispersal characteristics of the pollen morphology of these taxa are discussed and the implications of improved identification of cultivated species in late Quaternary pollen records are considered. 4449,1995,2,2,IMPACT OF EXPECTED CLIMATE-CHANGE ON MANGROVES,There is a consensus of scientific opinion that the activities of man will cause a significant change in the global climate over the next hundred years. The rising level of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases in the atmosphere may lead to global warming with an accompanying rise in sea-level. Mangrove ecosystems grow in the intertidal zones in tropical and sub-tropical regions and are likely to be early indicators of the effects of climate change. The best estimates of predicted climate change in the literature are presented. It is suggested that a rise in mean sea-level may be the most important factor influencing the future distribution of mangroves but that the effect will vary dramatically depending on the local rate of sea-level rise and the availability of sediment to support reestablishment of the mangroves. The predicted rise in mean air temperature will probably be of little consequence to the development of mangroves in general but it may mean that the presence of mangroves will move further north and south| though this will depend on a number of additional factors. The effect of enhanced atmospheric CO2 on the growth of mangroves is unknown at this time but that there is some evidence that not all species of mangroves will respond similarly. The socio-economic impacts of the effects of climate change on mangrove ecosystems may include increased risk of flooding| increased erosion of coast lines| saline intrusion and increased storm surges. 2554,1995,2,4,IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN GREECE,A stochastic space-time model is used at four locations in Greece for estimating the effect of global climate change on daily temperature and precipitation. The approach is based on a semi-empirical downscaling of simulated daily atmospheric Circulation Patterns (CP) of General Circulation Models (GCM). Historical data and a 10-year outputs of the Max Planck Institute GCM for the 1 x CO2 and 2 x CO2 cases are used. Nine CP types for the winter and summer half years are obtained to characteriz;e large-scale climatic forcing in Greece. Local temperature and precipitation appear to be highly dependent on CP types. The space-time response of daily temperature to global climate change is slightly variable in Greece. In general| a warmer climate will imply nearly 3 degrees C increase in fall and in winter. The variability within the month will not change considerably. A slight but statistically significant increase of precipitation is obtained at one location and an insignificant increase is found at the other three locations. 4474,1995,2,4,IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ON THE OZONE-LAYER,The question is considered about impact of tropical cyclones (TC)| one of the most intensive atmospheric phenomena| on the ozone layer. By generalizing the data obtained for last years three mechanisms of the impact are analyzed and their possible effects are evaluated. It is shown that observed positive and negative anomalies in total ozone content (TOC) in TC zone are due to dynamical and electrochemical mechanisms. The estimates of their spatial and temporal scales are obtained. Specific features of TOC variations at the stage of developing depression can be considered as an indication of its transformation in a storm while periodic oscillations of TOC under the action of gravity waves generated by TC - as an indicator of dynamics of TC. In relation to the global warming effect it is noted that one should expect increasing in the number and magnitude of negative anomalies of TOC caused by TC. This can be treated as a hazard factor at a background of minimum values of TOC in region of action of TC. 4294,1995,2,4,Impacts of environmental scenarios on chlorophyll-alpha in the management of shallow| eutrophic lakes following biomanipulation: An application of a numerical model,Accurate prediction of species changes in lake ecosystems following biomanipulation measures is of paramount importance in view of water quality management. The temporal variation of phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a and transparency as Secchi depth measurements are studied in the Lake Bleiswijkse Zoom| The Netherlands| with a comprehensive structural dynamic model. In the formulation of the biological model| phytoplankton as several species| zooplankton| detritus| planktivores and benthivores| and piscivores are considered to be major contributing state variables for the model. The primary goal of this paper is to describe the possible impacts of several environmental scenarios on chlorophyll-a biomass qualitatively as it would help lake and environmental managers and relevant authorities elucidate the processes of eutrophication and biomanipulation in a broad way. Some of the scenarios that have been studied by this model are: (1) The effect of fixed stoichiometry in terms of internal nitrogen and phosphorus that are tied up within algal cells; (2) the effects of external phosphorus limitation; (3) light limitation and external nitrogen limitation on algal growth; (4) probable consequences that have taken place within the chlorophyll-a biomass due to change in biomasses of various aquatic organisms; and (5) possible changes of chlorophyll-a biomass due to higher temperatures caused by global warming. 4298,1995,2,4,IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ON DELTAS IN THE GULF-OF-MEXICO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN - THE IMPORTANCE OF PULSING EVENTS TO SUSTAINABILITY,In deltas| subsidence leads to a relative sea-level rise (RSLR) that is often much greater than eustatic rise alone. Because of high RSLR| deltaic wetlands will be affected early by an acceleration of eustatic sea-level rise. If there is sufficient vertical accretion| wetlands can continue to exist with RSLR; however| lack of sediment input eventually leads to excessive water logging and plant death. Areas with low tidal range| such as the Mediterranean and Gulf of Mexico| are especially vulnerable to rising water levels because the elevational growth rang of coastal vegetation is related to tide range. Reduction of suspended sediments in rivers and prevention of wetland flooding by river dikes and impoundments have reduced sediment input to Mediterranean and Gulf of Mexico deltaic wetlands. This sediment deficit will become more important with an acceleration in sea-level rise from global warming. Most sediment input occurs during strong pulsing events such as river floods and storms| and management policies and decisions are especially designed to protect against such events. Management approaches must be reoriented to take advantage of pulsing events to nourish marsh surfaces with sediments. We hypothesize that deltas can be managed to withstand significant rates of sea-level rise by taking advantage of pulsing events leading to high sediment input| and that this type of management approach will enhance ecosystem functioning. 4422,1995,3,4,Increasing the soil temperature to study global warming effects on the soil nitrogen cycle in agroecosystems,According to the GCMs air temperature will increase 3-5 degrees C above ambient in Central Europe. As one consequence the element turnover in terrestrial ecosystems should change; in particular| the large soil carbon and nitrogen pools are crucial because of their potential to further 'pollute' the globe with liquid and gaseous compounds. According to the goals of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) an ecosystem manipulation was carried out to increase the temperature of the top soil in an agroecosystem 3 degrees C above ambient and to study the effects on the nitrogen cycle. The experimental design| called HOTWORM| could be proved during a 3-month winter period to keep a constant temperature difference of 3 degrees C above ambient including freezing-thawing cycles. No changes in the soluble nitrogen pools could be measured at the end of the investigation| probably because of the shea heating period and the high spatial variability. However| N2O-N emissions were much higher in the unheated plot (0.233 kg ha(-1)) compared with the heated one (0.058 kg ha(-1)). This effect could be caused by more frequent freezing-thawing cycles in the unheated plots| which showed the highest emission rates. The importance of the reduced water content in the heated plot could not be evaluated in this investigation. Based on the experiences of this study a schedule for intensified field experiments was developed. 2577,1995,2,4,INERTIA IN PLANT COMMUNITY STRUCTURE - STATE CHANGES AFTER CESSATION OF NUTRIENT-ENRICHMENT STRESS,Water| nitrogen| and water-plus-nitrogen at levels beyond the range normally experienced by shortgrass steppe communities were applied from 1971 through 1975| plant populations were sampled through 1977| and the results of the experiment were published. Upon revisiting the plots in 1982| we found it apparent that large changes had occurred since 1977. Sampling was re-established in 1982 to follow trajectories of recovery. Our purposes in this paper are to examine how conclusions from this study changed through time| and discuss implications of these changes for monitoring potentially stressed ecosystems. Although productivities increased| dissimilarities in plant species composition at the end of the 5 yr of nutrient treatments were not significantly different from controls. Two years after cessation of the treatments exotic ''weed'' species were increasing in water-plus-nitrogen treated communities| and community dissimilarities were diverging in water and water-plus-nitrogen treated communities. Seven years after cessation of treatments all communities were significantly different from controls. Exotics were more than ten times more abundant in water-plus-nitrogen and nitrogen treated communities than they had been 2 yr post-treatment. A consistent trend in recovery of all treated communities was evident over the next 5 yr. However| the trend towards recovery reversed over the next four consecutive years in the previously water-plus-nitrogen and water treated communities. The four-to-five year cycles in species composition and abundance of exotics towards| and then away from| conditions in undisturbed control communities were not related to weather but large accumulations of litter suggested biotic regulation. Inertia of existing plant populations| or the tendency to continue to occupy a site when conditions become unfavorable| can mask both future deterioration in ecosystem condition and unstable behavior resulting from environmental stressors. Time lags in initial response means that an ecosystem can pass a threshold leading to transitions to alternate states before it is evident in structural characteristics such as species composition. Global climate change and sulfur and nitrogen oxide pollutants also have the potential to act as enrichment-stressors with initial time lags and/or positive effects and cumulative| subsequent negative effects| rather than as disturbance forces with immediate negative impacts. Sociopolitical systems| however| often require change in biological variables or negative impacts before acting to ameliorate environmental problems. The manner in which conclusions changed at various periods in time| and the potential for time lags in responses of species populations| raises questions about which variables are most useful for detection of stress and how long studies must last to be useful. 4331,1995,4,3,INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS CLOUD RADIATIVE FORCING ON CLIMATE AND CLIMATE SENSITIVITY IN A GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL,Six numerical experiments have been performed with a general circulation model (GCM) to study the influence of high-level cirrus clouds and global sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations on climate and climate sensitivity. The CCM used in this investigation is the third-generation ECHAM3 model developed jointly by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and the University of Hamburg. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce many features of the observed cloud radiative forcing with considerable skill| such as the annual mean distribution| the response to seasonal forcing| and the response to observed SST variations in the equatorial Pacific. In addition to a reference experiment where the cirrus emissivity is computed as a function of the cloud water content| two sensitivity experiments have been performed in which the cirrus emissivity is either set to zero everywhere above 400 hPa (''transparent cirrus'') or set to 1 (''black cirrus''). These three experiments are repeated identically| except for prescribing a globally uniform SST warming of 4 K. Similar to earlier GCM studies| the changed cloud radiative heating within the troposphere has a profound impact on the model climate. Since the initial radiative forcing introduced by the changed cirrus emissivity is much smaller than the convective or dynamical response| we conclude that the tropical circulation| in particular| is maintained through a positive feedback loop involving cirrus radiative heating| deep cumulus convection| and moisture supply through the large-scale dynamics. Since this interaction has been identified in at least two other GCMs employing different cumulus parameterizations| it does not crucially depend on the respective closure assumption. Moreover| the radiative-convective-dynamical coupling in the tropics is relevant also in the global warming experiment through the increase of cloud water and hence cirrus radiative heating in the warmer atmosphere. It is shown that the spin-up of the Walker circulation in both the global warming and the increased cirrus emissivity experiments is a result of a selection process which enhances the diabatic heat source through asymmetries of the circulation itself| and the extra differential heating feeds back positively on the circulation. It is also shown that cirrus clouds have a significant influence on the global climate sensitivity of the model. In the climate change experiment with the standard model| the climate sensitivity is 20% higher than in a clear-sky reference atmosphere because the increase of cirrus emissivity in the warmer atmosphere contributes substantially to the overall positive cloud feedback. In the transparent cirrus model the cloud feedback is negative| and the global sensitivity is reduced by 20% as compared to a clear-sky reference atmosphere. 4408,1995,4,4,INFRARED BAND INTENSITIES AND GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS OF CF4| C2F6| C3F8| C4F10| C5F12| AND C6F14,IR band intensities have been measured for the species: CF4| C2F6| C3F8| C4F10| C5F12| and C6F14 via Fourier transform spectroscopy and compared to previous literature values if available. Relative radiative forcing calculations have been performed using these data in order to determine the global warming potential of the particular species. The relative forcing (compared to CFC11| per volume) increases with molecular weight in the above series from 0.47 to 2.1| the GWP for a time horizon of 100 yrs from 1.1 to 4.7. This corresponds to a GWP on CO2 basis per mass of about 5000. 2584,1995,4,4,INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE - AN INCOMPLETE OVERVIEW,Integrated assessment is a trendy phrase that has recently entered the vocabulary of folks in Washington| DC and elsewhere| The novelty of the term in policy analysis and policy making circles belies the longevity of this approach in the sciences and past attempts at their application to policy issues| This paper is an attempt at providing an overview of integrated assessment with a special focus on policy motivated integrated assessments of climate change| The first section provides an introduction to integrated assessments in general| followed by a discussion of the bounds to the climate change issue| The next section is devoted to a taxonomy of the policy motivated models| Then the integrated assessment effort at Carnegie Mellon is described briefly| A perspective on the challenges ahead in successful representation of natural and social dynamics in integrated assessments of global climate change is presented in the final section. 4291,1995,2,3,Interaction of acid rain and global changes: Effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems,Both acid deposition and changes in the global atmosphere and climate affect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In the atmosphere sulphate aerosols tend to increase haze| altering the global radiation balance. Increased nitrogen deposition to N-limited systems such as boreal forests results in increased growth and increased sequestration of atmospheric CO2| slowing the increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Future reduction in S and N emissions may result in a trade-off - better with respect to some effects of acid deposition and greenhouse warming| but worse with respect to others. Global warming may cause the incidence and severity of drought to increase. Mineralisation of N and oxidation of organic S compounds release pulses of SO4| acid and Al to surface waters. Effects in lakes may include reduced deep water refugia for cold stenotherms| lower nutrient concentrations| and greater penetration of harmful UV radiation. Longer water renewal times cause declines in SO4 and NO3| due to increased in situ removal| but increases in base cations. The net result is increased internal alkalinity production. In areas characterised by cold winters| global warming may result in a major shift in hydrologic cycle| with snowmelt episodes occurring during the winter rather than the typical pattern of accumulation in the winter and melting in the spring. Increased storm frequency predicted for the future will cause increased frequency and severity of sea salt episodes in coastal regions. Predicting the interactions of regional and global environmental factors in the coming decades poses new challenges to scientists| managers and policy-makers. 4404,1995,3,3,INTERGENERATIONAL DISCOUNTING,A 'discount rate' for the consumption of future generations from current investments for their benefit is typically composed of two parts: 'time preference' and an allowance for the lower marginal utility of consumption due to higher average levels of consumption in the future| Time preference would be involved if one were postponing one's own consumption; it has little or nothing to do with income redistribution| which is what greenhouse abatement is about| A lower marginal utility of consumption is an anomaly in income redistribution: we rarely deliberately transfer consumption from the less to the more well-to-do| Time may serve as a kind of measure of distance; we may prefer beneficiaries who are closer in time| in geographical distance| in culture| surely in kinship| Perhaps to keep our thinking straight we should use a term like 'depreciation'| rather than 'discounting'. 2587,1995,3,4,INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY| DISCOUNTING| AND THE ROLE OF COST-BENEFIT-ANALYSIS IN EVALUATING GLOBAL CLIMATE POLICY,When public policies with impacts far into the future are being debated| the question inevitably is raised whether cost-benefit analysis which discounts future costs and benefits is not biased against future generations and whether| if such discounting is appropriate at all| a lower rate should be used to avoid such bias| The debate on global climate change is no exception. This paper sketches and analyses the welfare foundations of cost-benefit analysis and from this perspective analyses the role of cost-benefit analysis in the climate policy debate| particularly with reference to intergenerational effects. The paper concludes that the cost-benefit criterion cannot provide a definitive basis for deciding whether we should commit to a longer-term programme to moderate climate change; the issues of intergenerational equity are not that global climate change will significantly lower the GNP of future generations| but relate to the possibility of science fiction-like changes in the planet that will produce catastrophic effects in the future; and the typical way in which the cost-benefit problem is posed obscures the basic choices that we should be evaluating. 4401,1995,3,4,INTERNATIONAL CO2 EMISSIONS CONTROL - AN ANALYSIS USING CETA,This paper explores issues of international cooperation in CO| emission control| We consider three cases: 'selfish|' in which region 1 controls optimally given its own damage costs and region 2 does not control; 'altruistic|) in which region 1 controls optimally given total worldwide damage costs while region 2 does not control; and 'optimal|' in which regions 1 and 2 exercise jointly optimal control of emissions and region 1 pays region 2 to participate| We find that neither region gains much in the selfish case; but both regions are better off in the optimal case than in the altruistic case| though region 1's benefits are negative in both these cases. 4367,1995,5,4,LATE PERMIAN GLOBAL COAL HIATUS LINKED TO C-13-DEPLETED CO2 FLUX INTO THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE FINAL CONSOLIDATION OF PANGEA,At a time when all continents were finally arrayed in their Pangea supercontinental configuration (250 +/- 50 Ma)| Earth's stratigraphy records a global and very abrupt coal discontinuity| From the Tartarian stage of the Late Permian to the Middle Triassic| reduced coal productivity and/or preservation overlaps with a period of anomalous oceanic and atmospheric decrease in C-13| as recorded in marine carbonates and organic matter| and terrestrial plant and animal fossils from the Northern and Southern hemispheres| During the same short period| the peripheral margin of the entire supercontinent Pangea| except for the southern shores of Tethys| was effectively under compressive stress| This unique tectonic state caused deformation and uplift of coal-bearing foreland basins and oxidation of Pangea's vast peat deposits| The latter resulted in a rapid| massive C-13-depleted CO2 flux into the atmosphere| which in turn may have forced global warming| 4327,1995,3,3,LCA CONSIDERATIONS OF SOLID-WASTE MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES FOR PAPER AND PLASTICS,Boundaries of life cycle inventories of products include the entire system associated with the manufacture| use and disposal of products. To date| the solid waste disposal aspects have been analyzed primarily in terms of the volume occupied by landfilled items| and the energy recovered by waste-to-energy facilities in the case of incinerated products. Histori- cally| these have been the items of most interest. The energy consumption by solid waste operations is routinely included| but is generally quite small as compared to the energy requirements for a product manufacturing system| and is of little interest in a product system analysis.
The reason for a lack of intensive analysis of other aspects of solid waste management is that they seemed of little consequence| or the data were so poor that no analysis was possible. For example| we would like to compare the air emissions of various incinerated products| but current data on this subject are quite poor. Results of experiments do not make clear what specific air emissions are produced by burning a plastic product as compared to a paper product| for example. Data for burning pure samples of materials do not replicate the temperatures nor the complex and highly reactive chemical environment of a mixed waste incinerator.
Recent interest in ‘greenhouse gases’ has resurrected interest in this subject. If products either decay under aerobic conditions or are burned| a major product is COZ. However| if these same products are landfilled and anaerobic digestion takes place| a portion of the carbon is released as methane| which has much greater greenhouse potential than CO2 [ l- 31.
Although there is much public attention given to the concept of waste ‘entombment’ (i.e.| very slow decomposition of landfilled waste) it is clear that even well capped and maintained landfills still produce gases and leachate. Data on what happens to products in a landfill show that the range of possibilities is quite large. What happens to any one product is quite variable and unpredictable. However| a ‘screening’ analysis is possible to see if there is justification to consider more intensive study.
This analysis will consider what happens to paper or plastic products if they are burned| landfilled or composted. Because of the large uncertainty inherent in the data| the results must be considered very approximate| but the purpose is to determine if further study is warranted.
4444,1995,2,4,LITTER DECOMPOSITION| CLIMATE AND LITTER QUALITY,Litter decomposition is controlled by three main factors: climate| litter quality and the nature and abundance of the decomposing organisms. Climate is the dominant factor in areas subjected to unfavourable weather conditions| whereas litter quality largely prevails as the regulator under favourable conditions. Litter quality remains important until the late decomposition stages through its effects on humus formation. Interest in the role of litter decomposition in the global carbon cycle has increased recently since (1) increased atmospheric carbon dioxide will probably affect the chemical quality of litter (especially nitrogen content)| and (2) global warming may enhance decomposition rates. 2564,1995,4,2,LONG-TERM CHANGES OF THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE - IMPLICATIONS ABOUT MECHANISMS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE,We use a global climate model to investigate the impact of a wide range of radiative forcing and feedback mechanisms on the diurnal cycle of surface air temperature. This allows us not only to rule out many potential explanations for observed diurnal changes| but to infer fundamental information concerning the nature and location of the principal global climate forcings of this century. We conclude that the observed changes of the diurnal cycle result neither from natural climate variability nor a globally-distributed forcing| but rather they require the combination of a (negative) radiative forcing located primarily over continental regions together with the known globally-distributed forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases| Tropospheric aerosols can account for part of the continentally-located forcing| but alone they do not damp the diurnal cycle as observed. Only an increase of continental cloud cover| possibly a consequence of anthropogenic aerosols| can damp the diurnal cycle by an amount comparable to observations. A corollary of these results is quantitative confirmation of the widely held suspicion that anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming has been substantially counterbalanced by a forced cooling. Under the assumption that the cloud change is sulfate driven| a further implication is that the net rate of global warming is likely to increase substantially in coming years. We note that| on the long run| the daily maximum temperature will increase by an amount not much less than the increase of the mean temperature. 4311,1995,2,4,Long-term effects of water level drawdown on the vegetation of drained pine mires in southern Finland,1. The effect of water level drawdown after drainage of mires for forestry was studied by comparing the vegetation on undrained pine-mire sites with that of sites drained 3-55 years earlier. The plant communities were analysed with respect to the following environmental variables: drainage age| total nutrient contents of surface pear| and tree stand characteristics. Canonical correspondence analysis was used to relate the environmental variables to data on the botanical composition of vegetation. 2. Two main gradients were found in the data. The first ordination axis clearly relates to a gradient in forest vegetation succession and the second axis to a gradient in peat nutrient level and pH. 3. The secondary succession towards forest vegetation started soon after drainage and proceeded most rapidly in the most nutrient-rich site types. This led to a more uniform vegetation composition between the site types. 4. Original mire species reacted differently to the changing post-drainage environment. Tall sedges (Carex lasiocarpa| C. rostrata) disappeared soon after drainage. The coverages of the mire dwarf shrubs gradually decreased with increasing tree stand volumes; Betula nana appears to have been the most sensitive species. The coverages of the Sphagna studied appear to have decreased in response to increasing tree stand shading in the order: S. fuscum > S. recurvum complex > S. magellanicum > S. russowii. 5. The development towards forest vegetation on mires may diminish the regional (gamma-) diversity on forest-dominated landscapes| even if the species (alpha-) diversity on individual sites is little affected. 6. Long-term vegetation changes after artificial water level drawdown| emphasized in this study| can be used to mimic the effects of the predicted global climatic warming on mire vegetation. 4370,1995,2,4,LONG-TERM RESPONSE OF DISTURBANCE LANDSCAPES TO HUMAN INTERVENTION AND GLOBAL CHANGE,The structure of landscapes subject to patch-forming catastrophic disturbances| or ''disturbance landscapes''| is controlled by the characteristics of the disturbance regime| including the distribution of disturbance sizes and intervals| and the rotation time. The primary landscape structure in disturbance landscapes is the structure of the mosaic of disturbance patches| which can be described by indices such as patch size and shape. The purpose of this research was to use a geographical information system-based spatial model (DISPATCH) to simulate the effects of the initial density of patches on the rate of response to alteration of a disturbance regime| the effects of global warming and cooling| and the effects of fragmentation and restoration| on the structure of a generalized temperate-zone forested disturbance landscape over a period of 400 yr. The simulations suggest that landscapes require 1/2 to 2 rotations of a new disturbance regime to adjust to that regime regardless of the size and interval distributions. Thus alterations that shorten rotations| as would be the case if global warming increases fire sizes and decreases fire intervals| produce a more rapid response than do alterations that lengthen rotations| such as cooling and fire suppression. Landscape with long rotations may be in perpetual disequilibrium with their disturbance regimes due to a mismatch between their adjustment rate and the rate of climatic change. Landscapes with similar rotation times may have different structures| because size and interval distributions independently affect landscape structure. The response of disturbance landscapes to changing disturbance regimes is governed by both the number and size of patch births. 4308,1995,2,4,LONG-TERM TRENDS IN THE ARRIVAL DATES OF SPRING MIGRANTS,Data on the spring arrival dates of 23 species of migrants in Leicestershire over a 50-year period are presented. Chiffchaff| Sand Martin| Blackcap and Sedge Warbler showed a significant trend towards earlier arrival over the period| while Tree Pipit| Cuckoo| Whinchat| Whitethroat and Garden Warbler showed It significant trend towards later arrival. Fifteen species arrived noticeably earlier in the 1940s| a period of warm springs| while several species showed earlier arrivals in the 1980s. A number of species showed later arrival dates in the 1960s and 1970s| when April temperatures were colder than average. Several species showed significant correlations between arrival date and temperature. Arrival dates of the earliest species were much more variable than those arriving later| while species arriving in the second half of April showed a generally synchronous arrival. The results are discussed in the context of global warming.
4412,1995,4,4,LOOKING BACK 10 YEARS,This paper is an update of the science of global warming| The point of departure is 1983 with the publication of the National Research Council/National Academy of Sciences report Changing Climate (1983)| The present author was chairman of the report committee and considers this an appropriate time for an update| The advances (or retreats) in the overall science are reviewed with special emphasis on those that have critical policy implications. 4393,1995,5,4,MAMMALIAN GENERIC DIVERSITY AND TURNOVER IN THE LATE PALEOCENE AND EARLY EOCENE OF THE BIGHORN AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS BASINS| WYOMING AND MONTANA (USA),Patterns of mammalian generic turnover| richness| and faunal composition were investigated for faunas from 17 biostratigraphic zones in middle Paleocene through early Eocene deposits of the Bighorn and Clarks Fork basins of northern Wyoming and the Crazy Mountains Basin of south-central Montana. Significance of turnover was evaluated (1) by comparison of observed turnover to expected turnover (calculated from the multiple regression of turnover on zone duration and generic richness)| and (2) by comparison of observed turnover to a bootstrapped turnover distribution. Patterns of turnover and richness also were assessed in light of relative sampling quality of each faunal zone. The analysis identified four intervals of significant faunal change: the Torrejonian-Tiffanian transition| the late Tiffanian| the earliest Wasatchian| and the middle-to-late Wasatchian. The first interval was characterized by a high number of last occurrences in the latest Torrejonian| resulting in a decrease in standing generic richness in the earliest Tiffanian| but no major changes in ordinal composition. During the next interval of significant turnover| the late Tiffanian| higher-than-expected first occurrences resulted in an increase in standing richness and a change in faunal composition| most probably reflecting the immigration of taxa from outside North America. The third| and most dramatic| interval of significant generic turnover took place in the earliest Wasatchian and was distinguished by a high number of first occurrences| but relatively few last occurrences. This led to a marked increase in generic richness| a pattern similar to that for the early Wasatchian of North America as a whole. The major change in faunal composition| as in the late Tiffanian| was largely composed of immigrants from other continents. The pattern of faunal change during the early Wasatchian of the Bighorn Basin| along with evidence for global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary| supports previous interpretations associating this episode in mammalian evolution with the opening of high latitude intercontinental dispersal routes. During the fourth interval of interest| the middle to late Wasatchian| the Bighorn Basin fossil record shows a drop in generic richness. This differs from the overall North American pattern| and may be| in part| an artifact of still inadequate sampling for the latest part of the stratigraphic sequence in the Bighorn Basin. 2539,1995,4,4,Measuring global mean sea level variations using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data,The variations of global mean sea level are an important indicator of global climate change| and their measurement can provide important information for determining the socioeconomic impact of sea level change on coastal land use. The analysis of historical tide gauge records generally indicates that sea level has risen at a rate of about 2 mm/yr during the last 100 years; however| this estimate is somewhat uncertain due to the effects of regional crustal motion| lack of uniform temporal coverage| and the limited spatial sampling of tide gauges. The prospect of measuring variations in global mean sea level has been assessed using approximately 2.5 years of satellite altimeter data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) mission| where synoptic mapping of the geocentric height of the ocean surface is routinely achieved with a point-to-point accuracy of better than 5 cm. The global mean sea level variations measured by T/P every 10 days have an rms of 6 mm (4 mm after detrending)| some of which is shown to be correlated with sea surface temperature variations. The rate of change of global mean sea level derived from 2.5 years of data is +5.8 mm/yr with a scatter of 0.7 mm/yr. Currently| it is impossible to accurately estimate the error in the measured rate of sea level rise| since little is known about the long-term behavior of the measurement errors at the millimeter level. In addition| there is evidence from the sea surface temperature record that the measured rate of sea level rise is associated with a relatively short-term (interannual) variation unrelated to the long-term signal expected from global warming. Nevertheless| these results suggest that T/P is achieving the necessary repeatability to measure global sea level variations caused by climate change| and a longer time series will significantly improve the sea level rise estimate by averaging measurement error and real sea level variations. A longer time series will also reduce the errors in estimates of the altimeter calibration| providing an important constraint on any long-term instrument drift. Future research will focus on establishing a realistic error budget for these measurements of global mean sea level| so that they can be put in the proper context with other observations of global climate change. 4334,1995,3,3,METHANE EMISSIONS FROM CATTLE,Increasing atmospheric concentrations of methane have led scientists to examine its sources of origin. Ruminant livestock can produce 250 to 500 L of methane per day. This level of production results in estimates of the contribution by cattle to global warming that may occur in the next 50 to 100 yr to be a little less than 2%. Many factors influence methane emissions from cattle and include the following: level of feed intake| type of carbohydrate in the diet| feed processing| addition of lipids or ionophores to the diet|and alterations in the ruminal microflora. Manipulation of these factors can reduce methane emissions from cattle. Many techniques exist to quantify methane emissions from individual or groups of animals. Enclosure techniques are precise but require trained animals and may limit animal movement. Isotopic and nonisotopic tracer techniques may also be used effectively. Prediction equations based on fermentation balance or feed characteristics have been used to estimate methane production. These equations are useful| but the assumptions and conditions that must be met for each equation limit their ability to accurately predict methane production. Methane production from groups of animals can be measured by mass balance| micrometeorological| or tracer methods. These techniques can measure methane emissions from animals in either indoor or outdoor enclosures. Use of these techniques and knowledge of the factors that impact methane production can result in the development of mitigation strategies to reduce methane losses by cattle. Implementation of these strategies should result in enhanced animal productivity and decreased contributions by cattle to the atmospheric methane budget. 4349,1995,2,4,MICROBIAL LIFE IN PERMAFROST - A HISTORICAL REVIEW,This paper reviews the literature on cold-adapted micro-organisms which might exist in ice and permafrost. Properly identified| microbial markers in the cryolithozone could be used in palaeoenvironmental reconstructions| in distinguishing between epigenetic and syngenetic depositional sequences| and in the recognition of secondary thaw unconformities. Cryobiological problems include (1) whether the bacteria are dead| dormant or in the active state| and (2) what factors determine the preservation of cell structures. A possible consequence of permafrost thawing| based upon predicted global warming scenarios| is that there may be an increase in microbial activity and an increase in active layer thickness. 4350,1995,2,4,MICROEVOLUTION OF MIGRATORY BEHAVIOR ILLUSTRATED BY THE BLACKCAP SYLVIA-ATRICAPILLA - 1993 WITHERBY-LECTURE,The view on how rapidly morphological| physiological| and behavioural traits may change as a result of microevolutionary processes (i.e. genetic variation and directional selection) has changed considerably in the recent past. Observations on selection of morphological traits in Darwin's Finches on the Galapagos Islands and results of a 2-way selection experiment on migratory behaviour of Blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla have indicated that substantial changes can occur within short periods. A striking case is represented by Blackcaps breeding in continental Europe. Within the past 30 years| a subpopulation has developed a 'new' migratory direction to the WNW to novel wintering areas on the British Isles. Experimental analysis of migratory orientation behaviour has demonstrated that behavioural changes can result from microevolutionary processes. Similar microevolutionary processes are likely to occur commonly| as both recent field observations and experimental results suggest. One outcome of this| which is of particular interest| involves the effects of continued global warming. Global warning is likely to favour obligate partial and short-distance migrants at higher latitudes and to be disadvantageous to long-distance migrants| and may lead to further reduction of species diversity. 4369,1995,2,3,MIDHOLOCENE PRECEDENT FOR A FUTURE RISE IN SEA-LEVEL ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTH-AMERICA,Sea level oscillated between 5500 and 3500 years ago at Murrells Inlet| South Carolina (33 degrees 33'N| 79 degrees 02'W). The oscillation is well constrained by marsh foraminiferal zonations. For the same time interval| data from Nova Scotia indicate an acceleration in sea-level rise and a report from the Gull of St. Lawrence suggests an oscillation of sea level at the same time. The implications are: (1) there was a eustatic sealevel oscillation of about 2 m in the mid-Holocene on the east coast of North America that is not detectable in present geophysical models of relative sea-level change; (2) if an anthropogenically derived global warming of 4 degrees C takes place| sea level may rise as much as 2 m in 500 yr along the east coast of North America. It appears that the initial rapid rise is recorded all along the eastern seaboard of North America| but detection of the subsequent fall is dependent on existing glacio-isostatic effects (either subsidence or rebound) that are independent of eustatic sea level. 4463,1995,3,4,MINIMIZING THE ENVIRONMENTAL-IMPACT OF PROCESS PLANTS - A PROCESS SYSTEMS METHODOLOGY,A Methodology for Environmental Impact Minimization (MEIM) is presented in this paper. The methodology| which embeds Life Cycle Analysis principles within a process optimization framework| involves proper definition of a consistent boundary around the process of interest| identification of the emissions inventory| quantification of environmental impact via proper metrics (for air and water pollution| solid waste| global warming and ozone depletion) and inclusion of environmental criteria within process modelling and optimization tools. A case study| the production of VCM from ethylene| is presented to illustrate the basic features of MEIM. 4413,1995,3,4,MITIGATING GLOBAL WARMING BY SUBSTITUTING TECHNOLOGY FOR ENERGY - MITIS EFFORTS AND NEW APPROACH,In the last two decades| Japan has successfully overcome energy and environmental constraints despite a fragile energy and environmental structure| while maintaining a high rate of economic growth| Much of this success can be attributed to the substitution of an unconstrained production factor (technology) for a constrained production factor (energy) stimulated by MITI's industrial technology policy| With the recent fall of international oil prices and the succeeding 'bubble economy'| Japan again faces the prospect of energy and environmental constraints| This paper reviews Japan's path and MITT's efforts to overcome energy and environmental constraints by substituting technology for energy| It also analyzes the sources of the current fear concerning energy and environmental constraints. 4342,1995,3,2,MODEL EVALUATION OF CO2 REDUCTION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION,Global warming is one of the most serious issues in today's world. Various innovative technologies have been proposed for the reduction of CO| emissions and the mitigation of global warming. They include (1) the WENET project| inaugurated in 1993 by the government of Japan| in which electricity produced by photovoltaic systems in vast areas such as the Sahara Desert| or by hydropower systems| is converted to hydrogen for transport to demand sites| and (2) Steinberg's Hydrocarb process| in which fossil fuels and biomass are coprocessed to produce carbon and methanol. While Japan is resource-poor| it is located relatively close to Southeast Asia and Australia| which are large regions with abundant solar energy. This paper describes an investigation of the prospects for the adoption of these innovative technologies by Japan and surrounding resource regions in the next 30 to 40 years. An optimizing energy model is developed for the purpose| and the simulation results provide several interesting suggestions regarding Japan's future strategy for combatting global warming. 4356,1995,4,3,MODEL-CALCULATIONS OF COMPETING CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF SO2 AND CO2 IN FOSSIL-FUEL COMBUSTION,Fossil fuel combustion has two competing effects on the climate system| a warming due to the emission of CO2 and other trace gases and a cooling due to sulphate particles formed from the SO2 emission. A detailed parameterization of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO2 effect on backscattering and cloud albedo is implemented in a one-dimensional radiative-convective model for assessing the climatic impact. The results show that at present the cooling induced by the combined effect of SO2 completely counteracts the CO2 greenhouse warming. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO2-induced cooling reduces warming due to CO2 by 66% in the IPCC scenario Ball and by 27% in the IPCC scenario D. Attempts to slow-pace the fossil fuel burning will decrease the SO2 concentration| which could further increase global warming. 4460,1995,2,3,Modelling the impact on navy beans and vining peas of temperature changes predicted from global warming,Conservative estimates of global warming suggest that average daily temperature may be raised by 0.5-1.5 degrees C by the middle of the next century. This would have an impact on agricultural and horticultural production in the U.K.| and may result in a changing distribution of crops and the introduction of crops which cannot currently be grown in the U.K. The effect of a warmer climate on navy beans (Phaseolus vulgaris) and vining peas (Pisum sativum) was studied with the aid of a heat unit model. Total thermal receipt for the current and a warmer climate over the growing season of navy beans is compared with thermal requirement (sowing to crop maturity) of the crop. The analysis suggested that parts of Southern England would become thermally suitable for navy bean production| given relatively little global warming (0.5 degrees C). For vining peas| the contraction of the harvesting period due to a warmer climate| with a resulting increase of risk of a lost crop| is examined by using an accumulated day degree time scale from the start of harvest to the time when the crop is too mature. This analysis indicated that the time available for vining pea harvesting (determined by tenderometer values) may decrease by up to 25 per cent| which would significantly increase the risks in harvesting at the optimum time in traditional production areas. It is suggested that growing vining pea crops at more northerly latitudes than currently would help to compensate for the tendency of increased warming to reduce the period for which the crop could be harvested at optimum maturity. 2541,1995,4,4,Morphological responses among crop species to full-season exposures to enhanced concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and O-3,Field studies using open-top chambers were conducted at USDA-BARC involving the growth of soybeans ('89 & '90)| wheat ('91 & '92)| and corn ('91)| under increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and O-3. Treatment responses were compared in all cases to plants grown in charcoal-filtered (CF) air (seasonal 7-h mean = 25 +/- 3 n mol O-3 mol(-1)) having 350 or 500 mu mol CO2 mol(-1). Elevated seasonal O-3 levels for the soybean| wheat| and corn studies averaged 72.2 +/- 4| 62.7 +/- 2| and 70.2 n mol O-3 mol(-1)| respectively. Results presented were obtained for plants grown in silt loam soil under well-watered conditions. Grain yield increases in response to elevated CO2 in the absence of O-3 stress averaged 9.0| 12.0| and 1.0% for soybean| wheat| and corn:respectively. Reductions in grain yields in response to the elevated O-3 treatments at 350 mu mol CO2 mol(-1) averaged 20.0| 29.0 and 13.0% for soybean| wheat| and corn| respectively. Reductions in grain yields in response to elevated O-3 at 500 mu mol CO2 mol(-1) averaged 20.0| 8.0| and 7.0% for soybean| wheat| and corn| respectively. Dry biomass and harvest index in wheat were significantly reduced by O-3 stress at 350 mu mol mol(-1) CO2 but not at 500 u mol mol(-1) CO2. Seed weight 1000(-1) for soybeans and wheat was significantly increased by CO2 enrichment and decreased by O-3 stress. Seed weight 1000(-1) in corn was increased by O-3 stress suggesting that O-3 affected pollination resulting in fewer kernels per ear. 4426,1995,3,3,NEW DIRECTIONS FOR FINANCING GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE,The international environmental agreements negotiated in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 provide some hope for reducing the rate of global warming and saving the world's biological diversity| But it is clear that the North will vote only limited funds to facilitate the working of the Conventions| perhaps US$2 billion over the coming three years| Against the scale of the problems this is an inadequate sum| However| there are opportunities for tapping into other sources of funds| and for using official transfers as a lever for yet other funds| Additionally| enormous scope exists for reducing global environmental problems through the adoption of more sensible economic policies| The deployment of imaginative policies to 'capture' environmental value can make a substantial difference to the global environment. 2604,1995,3,3,Nitrogen transformations in wetland rice ecosystems,In Asia| rice production has increased an average 2.7% annually - due to greater fertilizer use and crop intensification together with varietal improvement and investment in irrigation facilities. Nitrogen efficiency in tropical rice is low. N-15 recovery rarely exceeds 30-40% in wetland rice production systems. Ammonia (NH3) volatilization and denitrification are recognized as major nitrogen loss mechanisms in such systems. Information on the relative importance of the two loss processes is available for few sites in Asia. The greatest losses of N are reported to occur when the fertilizer treatment leads to a high concentration of ammoniacal N in the floodwater. Results from the studies using micrometereological technique suggest that ammonia volatilization may be the most important loss process in wetland rice ecosystems. Directly measuring denitrification in the held proved more difficult than measuring NH3 volatilization due to difficulty in distinguishing the main end product of denitrification (N-2) against a large background of atmospheric N-2. However| the directly measured (N-2 + N2O) - N-15 flux for rice in Indonesia| Thailand and the Philippines rice fields was less than 1% of the applied N. Green manure incorporation in wetland rice fields reduced N losses from mineral N source due to resulting lower floodwater pH and lower partial pressure of NH3 (pNH(3)) than that of urea applied alone. At present| the integrated use of green manure and mineral N is receiving much attention in the hope of meeting farmers' desire to reduce cost of production as well as ecological considerations such as increased methane production which contribute to global climate change. Other promising alternative practices for increasing fertilizer N efficiency include improved timing and application methods| particularly through better incorporation of basal N fertilizer without standing water| deep placement| and use of coated fertilizers. 4406,1995,3,3,NO-REGRET POTENTIALS AND TECHNICAL INNOVATION - A VIABILITY APPROACH TO INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE POLICIES,This paper aims to demonstrate the advantages of a sequential approach to decision making in climate policies| This sequential approach is necessary because of the uncertainties regarding both the avoided costs of climate change and the costs of GHG emission abatement| This assessment focuses on the minimization of learning time| the reduction of technical and institutional inertia| and the possible unexpected non-linearities in abatement curves. A stylized representation of so-called 'no-regret' short-term potentials| of long-term innovation trends and of backstop technologies is used| We show that if we do take care of the inertia constraints in the decision process| both policies (namely the no-regret and the innovation process exploitation) becomes crucial in terms of minimization of the learning time. 4355,1995,3,3,NONCONVENTIONAL ENERGY-SOURCES - A SOLUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING IN THE INDIAN CONTEXT,The main thrust of this article is on the tapping and use of nonconventional energy resources to reduce the contribution to global warming in the Indian context. This article covers the steps taken by the government of India to promote nonconventional energy sources in India. 4398,1995,4,4,NONLINEAR METHODS FOR MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL CALIBRATION AND THEIR USE IN PALEOECOLOGY - A COMPARISON OF INVERSE (K-NEAREST NEIGHBORS| PARTIAL LEAST-SQUARES AND WEIGHTED AVERAGING PARTIAL LEAST-SQUARES) AND CLASSICAL APPROACHES,Current environmental problems| such as acid rain and global warming| have greatly increased interest in fossil species assemblages as indicators of the palaeoenvironment and thus in quantitative methods for reconstructing environmental variables from species assemblage data. The ensuing multivariate calibration problem appears to be even harder than that of spectroscopic calibration| primarily because the basic model is unimodal (Shelford's law of tolerance) instead of being linear (Beer's law). The strong non-linearity has led to the use of non-parametric calibration methods| in particular the smooth response surface method (SRS) and the method of best modern analogues| alias k-nearest neighbours (k-NN)| and to a form of non-linear partial least squares (PLS)| called weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS)| specially designed to analyze unimodal data. SRS and k-NN are recognized as non-parametric smoothing versions of the classical and inverse approach to linear calibration| respectively| whereas PLS and WA-PLS are inverse methods that bring in the aspect of dimension reduction. In a comparison on 'realistically looking' simulated compositional data with 100 training samples and 500 independent evaluation samples| WA-PLS and k-NN outperformed PLS when the species response functions were unimodal. For such data| k-NN resisted the curse of dimensionality. However| when the response functions were near-linear| WA-PLS and PLS performed about equally and clearly outperformed k-NN. On other simulated data| simultaneous calibration of two climate variables via a parametric non-linear classical method was compared with individual calibrations via inverse methods. The simultaneous calibration method was better at the border of the sampled space than the best inverse method (WA-PLS) and much better than k-NN. The simulations demonstrated the limitations of the leave-one-out estimate of prediction error: it showed severe method-dependent bias. 4409,1995,3,3,NUCLEAR-ENERGY| ENVIRONMENTAL-PROBLEMS AND THE HYDROGEN ENERGY ECONOMY,Transition to the hydrogen energy economy is justified from environmental and energetic viewpoints| its cost is estimated| and various means to finance it| including various synergies| are discussed. Planetary sources of renewable energy (wind| water| sun) are estimated and deemed sufficient to more than replace all fossil fuel. Cost and magnitude of required infrastructure then imply long construction times during which pollution and global warming may have time to become unacceptable. Advantages of energy as a transition facilitator which avoids them are examined| along with means to alleviate public anxieties about its use. The conclusions are that the main obstacles to a healthy hydrogen-based world are less scientific| technical or economic than due to inertia| ignorance| blindness| stupidity| fear and mistaken narrow interests| and that there will be enough time to overcome them if we attack the problems more energetically and each other less so. 4446,1995,3,3,ON THE EVALUATION OF HALOCARBON RADIATIVE FORCING AND GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS,Net global warming potentials and instantaneous radiative forcing values that include the cooling from halocarbon-induced ozone destruction have been calculated fbr 14 of the most significant halocarbons. These calculations were performed by incorporating knowledge of direct global warming potentials with an evaluation of the relationship between tropospheric cooling from stratospheric ozone loss and tropospheric halocarbon mixing ratios. The indirect cooling effect is strongly dependent upon the effectiveness of each halocarbon for ozone destruction. Strong net cooling is ascribed to additions of bromocarbon gases| while methyl chloroform and carbon tetrachloride are more nearly climate-neutral| and the CFCs and HCFCs display strong net warming. Consideration of indirect cooling also has important implications for the expected future net halocarbon forcing of the climate system: in the next 20 years| halocarbon radiative forcing is not predicted to decrease as mixing ratios of strongly ozone-depleting gases decline because of faster decreases in radiative cooling than in radiative wanning. Furthermore| continuing production of HFCs as substitutes for CFCs could result in sharply increasing halocarbon radiative heating in the latter part of the 21st century because of the increasing atmospheric burden of these compounds. 2556,1995,3,3,OPTIMAL CO2 CONTROL POLICY WITH STOCHASTIC LOSSES FROM TEMPERATURE RISE,In this paper| we present a new specification of warming cost and incorporate it into an integrated assessment model of global climate change. In the new specification| warming cost is represented as the product of possible large warming related welfare losses which occur with small probabilities that depend on the amount of temperature rise. This is in contrast to the conventional representation of warming cost as a deterministic function of temperature rise. To avoid 'curse of dimensionality' problems| we assume that losses affect the utility of consumption without directly affecting consumption itself| and that the probability of losses occurring is independent of the number of losses that may have previously occurred. The results we obtain using this new approach depend importantly on the specification of the loss probability function. Nevertheless| our results are qualitatively similar to previous results obtained using a deterministic specification of warming cost| in which cost is a cubic function of temperature rise. 4386,1995,5,4,ORGANIC-CARBON EXHUMATION AND GLOBAL WARMING DURING THE EARLY HIMALAYAN COLLISION,Organic carbon eroded and oxidized from marine sediments on the passive and active neo-Tethyan margins during the early Indian-Asian collision may have been sufficient to shift the carbon isotopic ratios of late Paleocene-early Eocene marine carbonates toward lighter values| and may have contributed to coeval global warming via the greenhouse effect. New limits on the timing of collision and the organic carbon content of Himalayan sedimentary sources and sinks allow us to estimate the net Paleogene flux. Our calculations suggest that continental collisions play a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle and climate through the exhumation as well as burial of organic carbon. 2575,1995,4,4,OUTCOME AND VALUE UNCERTAINTIES IN GLOBAL-CHANGE POLICY,Choices among environmental policies can be informed by analysis of the potential physical| biological| and social outcomes of alternative choices| and analysis of social preferences among these outcomes. Frequently| however| the consequences of alternative policies cannot be accurately predicted because of substantial 'outcome uncertainties' concerning physical| chemical| biological| and social processes linking policy choices to consequences. Similarly| assessments of social preferences among alternative outcomes are limited by 'value uncertainties' arising from limitations of moral principles| the absence of economic markets for many environmental attributes| and other factors. Outcome and value uncertainties relevant to global-change policy are described and their magnitudes are examined for two cases: stratospheric-ozone depletion and global climate change. Analysis of information available in the mid 1980s| when international ozone regulations were adopted| suggests that contemporary uncertainties surrounding CFC emissions and the atmospheric response were so large that plausible ozone depletion| absent regulation| ranged from negligible to catastrophic| a range that exceeded the plausible effect of the regulations considered. Analysis of climate change suggests that| important as outcome uncertainties are| uncertainties about values may be even more important for policy choice. 4344,1995,3,3,OZONE DEPLETION AND ITS IMPACT ON THE METAL-FINISHING INDUSTRY .1. BACKGROUND,The recent proof that man-made ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are seriously damaging the ozone layer| and the suggestion that they may contribute to the global warming phenomenon| has led to the development of international regulatory controls through the Montreal Protocol. The further tightening of these controls will inevitably result in the virtual disappearance of these solvents over the next years. In the face of rapidly decreasing availability and increasing unit price| many industries are taking a hard look at alternative materials for a range of applications. The first part of this paper provides a background to the harmful effects of the ODSs against which the metal finishing industry has to make important decisions regarding their replacements. Part 2 will consider the options available and indicate some of the consequential actions being undertaken within the metal finishing industry. 4332,1995,4,4,PERMAFROST AND CLIMATE-CHANGE - GEOTECHNICAL IMPLICATIONS,The behaviour of the ground in the cold regions of the world is characterized by freezing and thawing. The porous and particulate nature of soils presents conditions for phase change which lead to their unique properties and behaviour in cold climates. Accordingly| the periodic and unstable nature of atmospheric climate and of surface microclimate produces characteristic disturbances in the near-surface layers of the ground in the cold regions. These include the consequences of melting such as subsidence (thermokarst topography) and instability of slopes (landslides| mud-flows)| as well as the thermodynamic and mechanical effects of freezing| especially frost heave. Frozen soils show temperature-dependent creep (some forms of solifluction and deformation of foundations) and continuing heave (expansion of ground over long periods of time). These effects have important geotechnical implications' for the design of highways| airports| buildings and| notably| pipelines. The complexity of the design problems for major structures| especially pipelines| has not been widely understood. If there is global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of gases this will influence the direction and intensity of the ground disturbances| the nature of which has been recognized over the last three or four decades. However the effects of such warming due to atmospheric climate change will only become apparent over many decades. In the short term they will be masked by other ground temperature changes due to microclimatic effects and to inter-annual variability of climate and weather. Over a period of a century or more| if warming trends continue| there will be important modifications of terrain and physiography. 2542,1995,2,4,Phenology and growth of three temperate forest life forms in response to artificial soil warming,1 Responses of temperate deciduous forest vegetation to artificial soil warming (simulating one component of projected global climate change) were investigated in field plots over two growing seasons| 1992-93. Six replicate plots were established for each of three treatments: heating| disturbance-control| and intact control. Growth and phenology of 26 species of three life forms (12 herbaceous understorey species; six shrub species; eight tree species) were monitored non-destructively in the plots at 20 sampling dates. 2 Phenology of leaf emergence and flower production in saplings was not affected by soil warming. Mature trees and shrubs leafed out slightly earlier and in larger numbers in heated plots. Trees flowered earlier and in higher proportions in the heated plots in 1993. 3 Mean area per leaf per plant and leaf expansion rates in 1992 were greatest in control saplings of Acer pensylvanicum and Fagus grandifolia. Vaccinium corymbosum| a shrub| showed reduced leaf sizes under soil heating. 4 Soil warming significantly enhanced relative diameter growth of woody individuals| especially shrubs| in 1992. This effect was less pronounced in 1993. 5 Species richness was lower in heated plots than in intact control plots at all sampling dates in both years. Disturbed but unheated control plots exhibited the lowest species richness overall. Species richness declined in all plots in 1993. 6 Changes in relative abundance of herbaceous species from 1992 to 1993 were highly variable| and not significantly affected by treatment. Rank abundances of species changed more from 1992 to 1993 in intact control plots than in the other two treatments. 7 Total density (stems m(-2)) of herbaceous species was highest in heated plots during April and May of both years| reflecting accelerated emergence of Maianthemum canadense and Uvularia sessilifolia. From June through October| however| intact control plots exhibited the highest stem densities| as numbers of the early emergents declined. 8 Photosynthetic rates of the dominant herbs| Maianthemum canadense and Uvularia sessilifolia| were not significantly affected by heating. 9 Of all life forms| herbaceous species were most sensitive to soil warming. Their early appearance could influence carbon and nutrient acquisition dynamics under changed climatic conditions in deciduous forests. 4346,1995,3,4,PHOTOSYNTHETIC PERFORMANCE OF A HELICAL TUBULAR PHOTOBIOREACTOR INCORPORATING THE CYANOBACTERIUM SPIRULINA-PLATENSIS,The photosynthetic performance of a helical tubular photobioreactor (''Biocoil'')| incorporating the filamentous cyanobacterium Spirulina platensis| was investigated. The photobioreactor was constructed in a cylindrical shape (0.9 m high) with a 0.25-m(2) basal area and a photostage comprising 60 m of transparent PVC tubing of 1.6-cm inner diameter (volume = 12.1 L). The inner surface of the cylinder (area = 1.32 m(2)) was illuminated with cool white fluorescent lamps; the energy input of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR| 400 to 700 nm) into the photobioreactor was 2920 kJ per day. An air-lift system incorporating 4% CO2 was used to circulate the growth medium in the tubing. The maximum productivity achieved in batch culture was 7.18 g dry biomass per day [0.51 g.d biomass/L.day| or 5.44 g.d biomass/m(2) (inner surface of cylindrical shape)/day] which corresponded to a photosynthetic (PAR) efficiency of 5.45%. The CO2 was efficiently removed from the gaseous stream; monitoring the CO2 in the outlet and inlet gas streams showed a 70% removal of CO2 from the inlet gas over an 8-h period with almost maximum growth rate. (C) 1995 John Wiley and Sons| Inc. 4392,1995,5,4,PLANT AND MAMMAL DIVERSITY IN THE PALEOCENE TO EARLY EOCENE OF THE BIGHORN BASIN,Abundant plant and vertebrate fossils have been recovered from fluvial sediments deposited in the Bighorn Basin| Wyoming| during the first 13 m.y. of the Tertiary. Here we outline and discuss changes in the composition and diversity of floras and faunas during this period| which includes the recovery of terrestrial ecosystems from the K/T boundary extinctions| and later| during the Paleocene-Eocene transition| the greatest global warming of the Cenozoic. Floral diversity has been studied at three levels of spatial resolution: sub-local (at individual collecting sites)| local (along a single bed or stratigraphic horizon)| and basin-wide (regional). Sub-local diversity shows a moderate increase from the early to late Paleocene| followed by a decrease across the Paleocene/Eocene boundary| then an increase into the later early Eocene. Local heterogeneity was lower in Paleocene backswamp floras| although distinct groups of species dominated in different local fluvial settings such as backswamps and alluvial ridges. Heterogeneity of backswamp forests increased by about 65% from the early to late Wasatchian (early Eocene). The number of plant species inferred from the Bighorn Basin dataset rose gradually from the Puercan to an early Clarkforkian peak of about 40 species| declined sharply to about 25 species by the Clarkforkian/Wasatchian boundary| then rose through the Wasatchian to about 50 species. A regional analysis of mammalian genera shows high turnover and a rapidly increasing number of genera within a million years of the K/T boundary (10-50 genera)| a slight decline to 40 genera by the early Clarkforkian| then an increase from 40 to 75 genera by the late Wasatchian. Our analyses found no major extinctions in mammals during the Paleocene and early Eocene in the Bighorn Basin| but a one-third decrease in the number of plant species at about the Paleocene/Eocene boundary. Rates of taxonomic turnover were much higher for mammals than plants. The diversity trends for plants and mammals show little congruence| implying that the two groups responded in a very different manner to post K/T extinction opportunities. There is also little congruence between plant diversity levels and change in mean annual temperature (MAT) as inferred from foliar physiognomy. 4354,1995,2,4,Possible impacts of global warming on tundra and boreal forest ecosystems: Comparison of some biogeochemical models,Global warming affects the magnitude of carbon| water and nitrogen fluxes between biosphere and atmosphere as well as the distribution of vegetation types. Biogeochemical models| global as well as patch models| can be used to estimate the differences between the mean values of annual net primary production (NPP) for present and for future climate scenarios. Both approaches rely on the prescribed pattern of vegetation types. Structural| rule-based models can predict such patterns| provided that vegetation and climate are in equilibrium. The coupling of biogeochemical and structural models gives the opportunity of testing the sensitivity of biogeochemical processes not only to climatic change but also to biome shifts. Whether the annual mean NPP of a vegetation type increases or decreases depends strongly on the assumptions about a CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen cycling. Results from our coupled model show that| given that direct CO2 effects are uncertain| (i) average NPP of these northern biomes might decrease under global warming| but (ii) total NPP of the region would increase| due to the northward shift of the taiga biome. 2555,1995,2,4,POSSIBLE MECHANISMS UNDERLYING FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FAR-EASTERN SARDINE POPULATION INFERRED FROM TIME-SERIES OF 2 BIOLOGICAL TRAITS,A cycle of fluctuation in the Far Eastern sardine| Sardinops sagax| population is accompanied by an abrupt drop and recovery of fish size and lipid content of parent fish| which may reflect a phase variation from coastal to oceanic and its reverse. The cycle begins with die survival success of a smaller number of eggs produced by high-quality parents| which is triggered by a global climate change (density independent process)| and finally ends in the survival failure resulting from an overexpansion of an enormous number of fish produced by low-quality parents (density-dependent process). 4289,1995,2,4,Potential effects of global climate warming on brook trout growth and prey consumption in central Appalachian streams| USA,The effects of global warming trends on growth and food consumption rates for a brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis population were simulated with a bioenergetics model. We examined the hypothesis that improved growth conditions during cooler months will offset the opposing effects of extreme temperatures during the summer. Annual growth increments of brook trout were determined from a population in a high elevation stream in West Virginia| USA| and baseline stream temperatures were measured in mid to high elevation streams. The mean annual stream temperature was increased by 2 and 4 degrees C to simulate the effects of climatic warming. Brook trout populations at high elevations in the Appalachian Mountains could either benefit from increased growth rates in spring and fall| or suffer from shrinking habitat and reduced growth rates in summer| depending on the magnitude of temperature change and on food availability. An increase of 2 degrees C or less could very likely increase brook trout growth| but the effect of larger temperature increases is less predictable due to greater dependence on higher prey production. A 15 to 20% increase in food consumption would be required to maintain present rates of growth with an increase of 2 degrees C| and 30 to 40% more food would be required with an increase of 4 degrees C. 2595,1995,2,3,POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATIC-CHANGE ON THE PHENOLOGY AND YIELD OF MAIZE IN VENEZUELA,Simulated impacts of global and regional climate change| induced by an enhanced greenhouse effect and by Amazonian deforestation| on the phenology and yield of two grain corn cultivars in Venezuela (CENIAP PB-8 and OBREGON) are reported. Three sires were selected: Turen| Barinas and Yaritagua| representing two important agricultural regions in the country. The CERES-Maize model| a mechanistic process-based model| in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was used for the crop simulations. These simulations assume non-limiting nutrients| no pest damage and no damage from excess water; therefore| the results indicate only the difference between baseline and perturbed climatic conditions| when other conditions remain the same. Four greenhouse-induced global climate change scenarios| covering different sensitivity levels| and one deforestation-induced regional climate change scenario were used. The greenhouse scenarios assume increased air temperature| increased rainfall and decreased incoming solar radiation| as derived from atmospheric GCMs for doubled CO2 conditions. The deforestation scenarios assume increased air temperature| increased incoming solar radiation and decreased rainfall| as predicted by coupled atmosphere-biosphere models for extensive deforestation of a portion of the Amazon basin. Two baseline climate years for each site were selected| one year with average precipitation and another with lower than average rainfall. Scenarios associated with the greenhouse effect cause a decrease in yield of both cultivars at all three sites| while the deforestation scenarios produce small changes. Sensitivity tests revealed the reasons for these responses. Increasing temperatures| especially daily maximum temperatures| reduce yield by reducing the duration of the phenological phases of both cultivars| as expected from CERES-Maize. The reduction of the duration of the kernel filling phase has the largest effect on yield. Increases of precipitation associated with greenhouse warming have no effects on yield| because these sites already have adequate precipitation; however| the crop model used here does not simulate potential negative effects of excess water| which could have important consequences in terms of soil erosion and nutrient leaching. Increases in solar radiation increased yields| according to the non-saturating light response of the photosynthesis rate: of a C-4 plant like corn| compensating for reduced yields from increased temperatures in deforestation scenarios. In the greenhouse scenarios| reduced insolation (due to increased cloud cover) and increased temperatures combine to reduce yields; a combination of temperature increase with a reduction in solar radiation produces fewer and lighter kernels. 2579,1995,2,2,POTENTIAL IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE ON MALARIA RISK,The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences| especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated Genera Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the heath impact of malaria Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia| South America| and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However| the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions| the effects of socioeconomic developments| and malaria control programs or capabilities. 4317,1995,2,4,POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC-CHANGE ON NATURAL FORESTS AND FORESTRY IN BRAZILIAN AMAZONIA,Climatic change can have significant impacts on tropical forests. Of greatest concern in Brazil is potential alteration of the hydrological cycle in Amazonia as a result of reduction in evapotranspiration that could be expected from a continuation of present deforestation trends. Other possible changes in Amazonia are more speculative| but merit research to better assess their likelihood of occurrence and potential severity. These include possible increased cloudiness in the northeast corner of the region (decreasing primary productivity there)| increased tree mortality throughout the region as a consequence of differential stimulation of vine growth by carbon dioxide (CO|) enrichment| increased carbon uptake by some tree species stimulated by CO| enrichment| and a variety of possible indirect effects of increased drought severity and frequency. Changes in temperature and rainfall as a result of global warming are expected to be slight at equatorial latitudes| but some changes could occur. While global warming changes imply expansion of the area climatically suitable for tropical forest| human activity converting these lands to uses other than tropical forests makes it unlikely that much| if any| of the potential for forest expansion would be realized. Human impacts on Brazil's Amazonian forests are great| and can be expected to respond to changes stemming from population growth and migration| economic activity and development policies. Some of the human impacts on forests will be affected by climatic changes in other parts of Brazil and in other parts of the world. Brazil is fortunate in having large areas of natural forest. This area| together with Brazil's large area of land not currently forested that is suitable for silvicultural plantations| makes the country relatively secure in supplying its own needs for forest products-at least through the year 2050-despite possible erosion of forest resources by climatic change. Many other countries are not so fortunate| and Brazil's capacity to supply forest products to the rest of the world is finite. 4394,1995,2,3,POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE FREQUENCY AND MAGNITUDE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION,It is now widely recognised that the most significant impacts of global warming are likely to be experienced through changes in the frequency of extreme events| including flooding. This paper reviews physical and empirical arguments which suggest that global warming may result in a more intense hydrological cycle| with an associated increase in the frequency and/or magnitude of heavy precipitation. Results derived from enhanced-greenhouse experiments using global climate models (GCMs) are shown to be consistent with these physical and empirical arguments. Detailed analysis of output from three GCMs indicates the possibility of substantial increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme daily precipitation| with amplification of the effect as the return period increases. Moreover| return period analyses for locations in Australia| Europe| India| China and the USA indicate that the results are global in scope. Subsequent discussion of the limitations of GCMs for this sort of analysis highlights the need for caution when interpreting the precipitation results presented here. However| the consistency between physically-based expectations| empirical observations| and GCM results is considered sufficient for the GCM results to be taken seriously| at least in a qualitative sense| especially considering that the alternative seems to be reliance by planners on the fundamentally flawed concept of a stationary climate. 2567,1995,2,4,Potential shifts in optimum growth areas of selected commercial tree species and subtropical crops in southern Africa due to global warming,The area under agricultural production in southern Africa is declining as a result of industrial expansion| mining as well as formal and informal urbanization. Simultaneously| the increasing demand for timber products will necessitate a doubling of the present area under commercial afforestation in South Africa over the next 30 years. Potentially afforestable areas| however| frequently occur in the same climatic belts as certain subtropical fruit crops. Given the climatic constraints for optimum growth of commercially afforestable timber species and subtropical horticultural crops| that southern Africa is a largely semi-arid region| the fact that the areal extent of land available for agriculture is shrinking| together with the uncertainties and possible threats linked with anticipated global climate change| the identification of land areas suitable for future expansion of plantations and subtropical crops requires careful assessment. The spatial distributions of areas suited climatically to optimum growth of two commercial tree species| Eucalyptus grandis and Pinus patula| and two subtropical crops| avocado and pecan nut| were mapped for southern Africa using a climate threshold approach in conjunction with detailed gridded climate information bases| for both the present climate and for a possible future climate scenario. Results indicate that the possible impacts of a future temperature-increase on the spatial distributions of optimum growth areas is species dependent| favouring E. grandis| avocado and pecan nut| but not P. patula. According to the climatic threshold model used| the timber species and horticultural crops considered produced a westward shift to 'new' climatically suitable areas in the future. The results also indicate that climate change resulting from the augmented greenhouse effect may benefit the horticultural industry to a greater extent than the timber industry. Hence| competition for land suitable for future expansion of certain commercial tree species and subtropical crops may become an important consideration in the future. 4445,1995,2,4,POTENTIALITIES| UNCERTAINTIES AND COMPLEXITIES IN THE RESPONSE OF CORAL-REEFS TO FUTURE SEA-LEVEL RISE,Coral islands formed of largely unconsolidated sands only a few metres above sea level are thought to be particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise consequent upon global warming. However| scenarios which predict catastrophic flooding and loss of island area need reassessment| particularly in the light of the continued downwards revision of projected rates of future sea-level rise. Revised questions concern the interactions between reef growth and sea-level change| biophysical constraints on coral growth| and the importance to reef systems of potential changes in the magnitude| frequency and location of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. It is clear that most reefs have the growth potential to meet even the highest of future sea-level rise scenarios| but too little is known about physiological and physical constraints to reef growth to adequately evaluate the importance of these two factors in constraining this potential at the present time. Future sea-level rise in the tropical oceans| and coral reef responses| will take place against a backdrop of inter-regional differences in Holocene sea levels| resulting from the varying interaction of eustatic and hydro-isostatic processes. These differences have generated varying constraints on the development of modern reefs and varying inherited topographies upon which future sea-level changes will be superimposed. These controls are particularly important in assessing differences in vulnerability to future sea-level rise for reef islands in the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. 4399,1995,4,4,PRACTICE AND PROGRESS IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE - A WORKSHOP OVERVIEW,This paper is intended to provide an overview of the state of the art integrated socioeconomic-biophysical assessments of climate change as presented at the IIASA workshop in October 1993| The paper seeks to tally the major improvements facilitated by integrated assessments in understanding the global warming problem and the crucial unresolved problems they currently face| The basic conclusion is that| as a result of a healthy diversity in practice| integrated assessments show significant progress in structuring the economic issues of climate change and providing the first broad insights into policy options| But| as some of the simple and traditional cases seem to be solved| more complex and difficult contingencies come to the fore| This suggests a long way to go to develop skills that will be required to address the numerous open issues. 4340,1995,4,5,PRECISION GLOBAL TEMPERATURES FROM SATELLITES AND URBAN WARMING EFFECTS OF NON-SATELLITE DATA,Data sets designed for operational use are now being employed to monitor the earth on decadal time scales| an application outside of their original purpose. One data set| from the Microwave Sounding Unit| measures atmospheric temperature in deep layers since late 1978. Procedures for verifying and validating these data by two tests are presented: one by comparison with an independent satellite and one by comparison with radiosonde data. The results show that data from such an instrument are precise and therefore ideal for global studies. Temperatures measured by surface thermometers have considerable error for long-term studies because of various factors. Widely varying results are shown for California stations| where the few sites chosen for global temperature trend estimation are shown not to be representative of the average trend measured by over 100 stations in the state. Such a result calls into question the ability of scattered| selected surface networks to provide a true picture of long-term trends. The global temperature trend of the lower troposphere measured by the Microwave Sounding Units from January 1979 to March 1994 is -0.06 degrees C per decade. 4377,1995,2,3,PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON FIRE FREQUENCY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN BOREAL FOREST,Although an increasing frequency of forest fires has been suggested as a consequence of global warming| there are no empirical data that have shown climatically driven increases in fire frequency since the warming that has followed the end of the ''Little Ice Age'' (similar to 1850). In fact| a 300-year fire history (AD 1688-1988) from the Lac Duparquet area (48 degrees 28'N| 79 degrees 17'W) shows a significant decrease both in the number and extent of fires starting 100 years ago during a period of warming. To explore this relationship between climatic change and fire frequency we used daily data from the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service's General Circulation Model to calculate components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for the 1xCO(2) and 2xCO(2) scenarios. The average FWI over much of eastern Canada| including the Lac Duparquet region| decreased under the 2xCO(2) simulation| whereas FWI increased dramatically over western Canada. According to these results| fire frequency would decrease over the southeastern boreal forest which is in agreement with the empirical data from the fire history. Our results stress the importance of large regional variability and call into question previous generalisations suggesting universal increases in the rate of disturbance with climate warming. 4361,1995,3,3,PRODUCTION AND SELECTION OF SOMACLONAL VARIANTS OF LEUCAENA-LEUCOCEPHALA WITH HIGH-CARBON DIOXIDE ASSIMILATING POTENTIAL,Callus was induced from various explants of Leucaena leucocephala| a fast growing| multipurpose| leguminous tree species. Callus obtained from hypocotyl segments showed high morphogenetic potential. Caulogenesis was achieved on B-5 medium supplemented with 6-benzylamino purine. Presence of ac-naphthaleneacetic acid in the medium promoted 6-benzylamino purine induced caulogenesis. Callus obtained from hypocotyl segments retained the capacity to produce shoots upon subculturing even after four months from induction. The shoots obtained from callus were transferred to auxin containing media for rooting. Good root induction was achieved in the presence of 10(-6)M 3-indolebutyric acid. Various morphologically distinct somaclonal variants were exposed to high concentrations of carbon dioxide. Somaclonal variants capable of growing well in the presence of high levels of carbon dioxide were selected. The majority of such variants were found to have high carbon dioxide assimilating capacity (as indicated by infra red gas analysis). Simultaneously methods were standardised for rapid multiplication of Leucaena leucocephala through apical bud and nodal cultures. Best apical bud and axillary bud sprouting was achieved on B-5 medium supplemented with 6-benzylaminopurine. Subsequent to multiplication| the efficient carbon dioxide assimilating variants can be used for afforestation and reforestation purposes in barren lands. This is likely to be one of the best methods| that can be employed safely| for alleviating the problem of global warming. 4292,1995,3,2,Radiative effects and halocarbon global warming potentials of replacement compounds for chlorofluorocarbons,Instantaneous radiative forcing was calculated for 5 fluoroalcohols| 21 fluoroethers| and 5 fluoroamines which had been proposed as the replacement compounds for the currently used chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs) in refrigeration. Theatmospheric lifetimes of the compounds were also estimated from highest-occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) energy. Based on the radiative forcing and atmospheric lifetimes| halocarbon global warming potentials (HGWPs) were evaluated for the replacement compounds. Most of the HGWP values were smaller than 0.1 owing to their shorter lifetimes| and the results indicate that these compounds could be valid candidates as replacements for currently used CFCs from the point of view of HGWP. The spectral cooling rate profiles were calculated for the replacement compounds in order to study the vertical structure of their radiative effects. It was found that overlapping of the absorption bands of a compound with those of ozone causes a significant cooling in the stratosphere| even if the compound does not exist in the stratosphere. This cooling does not directly relate to the HGWP value and the cooling rate profile in the troposphere. Therefore| it can be said that the vertical structure of the radiative effects caused by the compounds should be taken into consideration as well as HGWP or GWP values when we assess the environmental effects due to replacement compounds. In this study| one parameter| defined as the ratio of the cooling rate at 30 km and the tropopause| was proposed as a measure of the cooling in the stratosphere. Spectral-resolution dependency of the calculated radiative effects was also studied. The results show that the resolution should be finer than about 50 cm(-1) to calculate the radiative forcing and cooling rate precisely. 4306,1995,4,4,RADIATIVE FORCING OF CLIMATE BY HYDROCHLOROFLUOROCARBONS AND HYDROFLUOROCARBONS,We measure infrared absorption spectra of 18 hydrochlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons| seven of which do not yet appear in the literature. The spectra are used in a narrowband model of the terrestrial infrared radiation to calculate radiative forcing and global warming potentials. We investigate the sensitivity of the radiative forcing to the absorption spectrum temperature dependence| halocarbon vertical profile| stratospheric adjustment| cloudiness| spectral overlap| and latitude| and we make some recommendations for the reporting of radiative forcings that would help to resolve discrepancies between assessments. We investigate simple methods of estimating instantaneous radiative forcing directly from a molecule's absorption spectrum and we present a new method that agrees to within 0.3% with our narrowband model results. 2568,1995,5,4,RADIOCARBON AGES ON ORGANICS FROM PIEDMONT ALLUVIUM| AJO MOUNTAINS| ARIZONA,Alluvium in dry lands is considered difficult to date by radiocarbon methods because of the paucity of organic matter. Although organic materials of sufficient size for conventional C-14 dating are rare| wet sieving of alluvium in the Sonoran Desert yields sufficient organics for C-14 measurements by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Detrital charcoal from two Quaternary fluvial fill terraces on the western side of the Ajo Mountains yielded C-14 ages of 14|880 +/- 70 yr B.P. (CAMS-12408) for the Qt 1 terrace and 2490 +/- 60 yr B.P. (CAMS-12414) and 2510 +/- 60 yr B.P. (CAMS-12415) for the smaller inset Qt 2 terrace. These C-14 ages are consistent with what is known about rates of soil development in the region. The earlier aggradation event appears to be supported by regional and possibly global climate change at about 14|000 C-14 yr B.P. The more recent aggradation event does not appear to be synchronous with periods of frequent paleofloods in the southwest. The offset between C-14 and Cl-36 ages for the same terraces provides a general indication of the time taken for the clasts to be transported to their current positions on the terraces. 4381,1995,3,3,REDUCING THE FORMATION OF CARBON OXIDES IN THE PRODUCTION OF C-2 HYDROCARBONS FROM METHANE,Methane is the main component of natural gas and has been connected with global warming. The oxidative coupling of methane has been studied to enhance C-2 hydrocarbon selectivity and to reduce the formation of carbon oxides associated with C-2 hydrocarbon production. Acid sites of supported catalysts play a role in the formation of carbon oxides. The supported Zn oxide catalyst with alpha-Al2O3 shows no acidity in temperature programmed desorption by using NH3 and exhibits good C-2 hydrocarbon selectivity. The optimum loading of Zn oxide on alpha-Al2O3 is 60 wt%. The specific surface area of the catalyst appears not to influence activity. Using alkali metal salts as promoter in Zn oxide (60 Wt%)/alpha-Al2O3 catalyst| the activity performance for C-2 hydrocarbon formation is LiCl > NaCl > KCl: the performance is well correlated with the apparent molal enthalpy of formation of halides. The activity performance for minimizing carbon oxides is LiCl > KCl > NaCl| which is well correlated with the melting points in alkali halides. 2605,1995,4,4,REMOTE-SENSING OF VOLCANOS AND THEIR ROLE IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE,The literature on remote sensing of volcanoes is in general mainly concerned with some basic morphological features| suitable for eruption warning and for detecting plumes and lava flows. The present paper aims| rather| to emphasize the physical processes related to the role of volcanoes in the global climate change. In particular| the actual time-varying role of volcanoes has to be assessed in the degassing process of the Earth. Some relevant information can be got from the past (historic and palaeontological)| for envisaging what should be monitored by satellite at present. 4365,1995,3,3,RESEARCH OF ARID-LAND AFFORESTATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR CARBON-DIOXIDE FIXATION,As part of measures against the global warming| The Japan Gas Association established jointly with Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)| ''Society for Research of Desert Greening as a Measure against CO2 ''. The work of the society is proposing a research and development outline of realization of desert greening as a measure against CO2 global warming| and investigation and research work was conducted to make the proposal. As the result| the basic ideas of arid land afforestation for CO2 control| were found out to be the following. (1) To make it effective toward reducing global warming| fixing more than one hundred million tons of CO2 is necessary. (2) To achieve the fixation| an afforestation scale of 100 km x 100 km is necessary. (3) CO2 fixation should be continued for a long period| about 100 years. Based on these ideas| Basic Concept of R and D Activities for Realizing Deserts Afforestation which is consist of three main subjects of (1) designing of overall system of and land afforestation|(2) establishment of individual technologies|and (3) Evaluation of the system| is proposed. 2583,1995,2,3,RESPONSES OF BLACK SPRUCE SEEDLINGS TO SIMULATED PRESENT VERSUS FUTURE SEEDBED ENVIRONMENTS,We investigated the effects of nitrogen availability and present versus future atmospheric environments (i.e.| climate) on the seedling performance of 16 open-pollinated maternal families of Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P. over two simulated growing seasons. Diurnal and seasonal patterns of temperature| relative humidity| photoperiod| and light intensity were simulated. The simulated future climate included both elevated CO2 and seasonally appropriate increases in mean monthly temperatures. Compared with the present| the future climate increased seedling survival| total and root dry mass| rate of winter bud development| net photosynthetic rate| and water and nitrogen use efficiencies; decreased needle nitrogen content; and altered biomass allocation patterns. Greater nitrogen availability greatly improved seedling performance and changed biomass allocation patterns. Climate and nitrogen level interacted synergistically to promote seedling growth (branch number and root dry mass)| survival| and bud development. The future climate increased seedling survival| rate of bud development| and nitrogen use efficiency much more in the low than in the high nitrogen regime. Seedling performance in the second season was dependent on initial seed mass| but less than in the 1st year. Some of the differences among the families and in their interactions with the climate and (or) nitrogen fertilization suggest that families selected for rapid growth under present conditions may not do well in the future| at least in terms of early establishment. Forest managers and tree breeders should take this possibility into consideration in their tree improvement and reforestation programs. 4373,1995,4,4,REVIEW AND SYNTHESIS,Studies of trace gases in the atmosphere| their sources| sinks| and mechanisms of transport| have developed rapidly in the last few decades. This has been driven partly by increasing recognition that particular gases are associated with problems such as acidification| eutrophication| and global warming| but also by the developing enthusiasm for multidisciplinary research in which scientists from many disciplines collaborate to explore biological| geochemical| and atmospheric cycles and to understand how human action disturbs such cycles. Major international programs such as the International Biological Program (IBP) and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) have been very influential in generating and encouraging this new way of working. To answer these complex environmental research questions| scientists have needed to develop new field instrumentation| or at least to modify instruments normally used in the laboratory. Equally| mathematical simulation models are increasingly being used at scales ranging from cellular to global to allow complex computations that would have been unthinkable even a decade ago. The papers in this proceedings illustrate some of the exciting developments taking place in the study of the exchange of trace gases between the atmosphere and the land. They describe new understanding of the processes in soils| plants and the atmosphere that control gases important in the carbon and nitrogen cycles| they summarize new techniques and instrumentation that allow field studies at scales ranging from soil grains to landscapes| and they present results of mathematical models that allow us to explore consequences of global changes that may yet come. 2558,1995,3,3,Road map or false trail? Evaluating the ''precedence'' of the ozone regime as a model and strategy for global climate change,The amended 1987 Montreal Protocol stands at the center of an international regime designed to protect stratospheric ozone. Analysts and policy makers cite the regime's global scope| innovative characteristics| and extant success as breakthroughs in environmental cooperation and possible blueprints for other international environmental agreements| including climate change. Surprisingly| there has been little detailed research to determine if and how the development of the ozone regime actually is or is not a precedent for creating effective agreements on global climate change. This article begins such an analysis. I provide a framework for research into this issue| draw preliminary conclusions| and highlight areas requiring further research. I begin by delineating four propositions concerning the precedence of the ozone regime. I then distill and provide preliminary analysis of three issues| or research questions| that must be examined in order to determine the validity and policy relevance of two of these propositions.
2560,1995,3,3,ROLE OF RUSSIAN FORESTS IN THE GLOBAL CARBON BALANCE,The significance of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change will not be fully recognized until all components which contribute to their flux are accurately quantified. The absence of a common approach to quantify terrestrial carbon has resulted in substantial discrepancies in regional| national| and global estimates of carbon. One of the most dramatic cases is represented by the flux estimates for Russian forests which differ both in character and by two orders of magnitude. A system of accounting which provides a comprehensive estimate of the carbon flux between Russian forests and the atmosphere is presented herein. All significant components of the carbon cycle in forest ecosystems are considered. The sequestration of carbon in Russian forests is substantial| In the late 1980s and early 1990s| Russian forests were accumulating 0.66 Pg C yr(-1). Approximately one-third of the sequestered carbon was returned to the atmosphere through logging and forests fires. 2586,1995,2,2,SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL WARMING USING THE ASIAN-PACIFIC INTEGRATED MODEL (AIM),The Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is a large-scale model for scenario analyses of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the impacts of global warming in the Asian Pacific region| The AIM comprises two main models - the AIM/emission model for predicting GHG emissions and the AIM/impact model for estimating the impacts of global warming - which are linked by the global GHG cycle and the climate change models| This paper categorizes the scenarios that have been written so far in relation to global warming| and then| given fixed inputs| simulates the effects of global warming taking into account various uncertainties| Several recent outcomes from the AIM/impact model are then described| Assuming climate change scenarios deduced from AIM/emission and GCM experiments| primary impacts on water resources and natural vegetation are assessed. 2550,1995,3,3,SCENARIOS FOR MITIGATING GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS AND PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN BRAZIL,This work presents the methodology and results of a study carried out by the Energy and Environmental Planning Program of the Center for Postgraduate Studies in Engineering of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (PPE/ COPPE/UFRJ). An estimate elaborated by PPE/COPPE/UFRJ of Brazilian CO2 emissions due to energy consumption from 1970 to 1990 is presented initially. It is shown that Amazon deforestation is today the largest contributor to the greenhouse effect in Brazil| In the long run| however| emissions from the energy system (due to the burning of oil products| natural gas| coal and coke| wood| and charcoal) are bound to increase and overtake CO| emissions from deforestation. This study evaluates three scenarios of the long-run evolution of Brazilian economic and energy sectors; the scenarios were formulated by PPE/COPPE/UFRJ. The possibility of halving future CO2 emissions (resulting from fossil fuel energy consumption) with small increases of costs and investments linked to the energy sector is illustrated. This abatement scenario would require dramatic efforts to promote energy conservation On the supply side of the Brazilian energy balance| efforts would need to be made to promote the use of alternative fuels such as hydropower| ethanol and bagasse from sugar cane| wood and charcoal from afforestation programmers. However| recent trends in Brazilian energy policy do not coincide with the above abatement scenario due to the lack of ability to fund capital-intensive projects. The transfer of an adequate amount of financial resources from industrialized countries in appropriate soft terms is thus required in order for the Brazilian energy system to curb the greenhouse effect. Vast opportunities exist for a positive working relationship between both sustainable energy development strategies derived from national objectives and the prevention of global climate change. To this end| policies to tap the renewable energy potential should include appropriate measures to minimize any negative social and ecological impacts at the local and regional levels| as well as demonstrating their economic cost-effectiveness. Mechanisms adopted to implement the Convention on Global Climate Change signed an June 1992 during the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro| such as the Global Environment Facility (GEF)| should support the viability of these strategies in Brazil| as well as in other developing countries. 4434,1995,2,4,SEA-LEVEL RISE - A REVIEW OF RECENT PAST AND NEAR-FUTURE TRENDS,Global mean sea level is a potentially sensitive indicator of climate change. Global warming will contribute to worldwide sea-level rise (SLR) from thermal expansion of ocean water| melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets. A number of studies| mostly using tide-gauge data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level| Bidston Observatory| England| have obtained rates of global SLR within the last 100 years that range between 0.3 and 3 mm yr(-1)| with most values concentrated between 1 and 2 mm yr(-1). However| the reliability of these results has been questioned because of problems with data quality and physical processes that introduce a high level of spatial and temporal variability. Sources of uncertainty in the sealevel data include variations in winds| ocean currents| river runoff| vertical earth movements| and geographically uneven distribution of long-term records. Crustal motions introduce a major source of error. To a large extent| these can be filtered by employing palaeo-sea-level proxies| and geophysical modelling to remove glacio-isostatic changes. Ultimately| satellite geodesy will help resolve the inherent ambiguity between the land and ocean level changes recorded by tide gauges. Future sea level is expected to rise by similar to 1 m| with a 'best-guess' value of 48 cm by the year 2100. Such rates represent an acceleration of four to seven times over present rates. Local land subsidence could substantially increase the apparent SLR. For example| Louisiana is currently experiencing SLR trends nearly 10 times the global mean rate. These recently reduced SLR estimates are based on climate models that predict a zero to negative contribution to SLR from Antarctica. Most global climate models (GCMs) indicate an ice accumulation over Antarctica| because in a warmer world| precipitation will exceed ablation/snow-melt. However| the impacts of attritional processes| such as thinning of the ice shelves| have been downplayed according to some experts. Furthermore| not all climate models are in agreement. Opposite conclusions may be drawn from the results of other GCMs. In addition| the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is potentially subject to dynamic and volcanic instabilities that are difficult to predict. Because of the great uncertainty in SLR projections| careful monitoring of future sea-level trends by upgraded tide-gauge networks and satellite geodesy will become essential. Finally| because of the high spatial variability in crustal subsidence rates| wave climates and tidal regimes| it will be the set of local conditions (especially the relative sea-level rise)| rather than a single global mean sea-level trend| that will determine each locality's vulnerability to future SLR. 2594,1995,2,4,SEASONALITY OF FLOWERING AND FRUITING IN TEMPERATE FOREST TREES,The phenology of leaf presence and photosynthetic activity together set a potential limit on tree productivity in a seasonal climate; similarly| the seasonal timing of flowering and fruiting can decide tree reproductive success. The capacity for long-term storage of photosynthate appears to override any necessary functional linkage between these two critical aspects of tree phenology. Foliar and reproductive phenology in broadleaf deciduous trees of the temperate zone are only weakly coupled within a growing season| especially in precocious flowering trees that mature their fruits in early summer. In species that fruit in late summer and fall| leaf emergence and flowering can be entrained by shared responses to the progressive warming of early spring but with only limited effect on the timing of fruit maturation. The timing of foliar senescence and fruit maturation is correlated only in fall-fruiting trees but as a common response to fall climate rather than the outcome of foliar retranslocation of resources to developing fruits. The possibility exists that global climate change may disrupt these patterns of foliar and reproductive phenology| but the magnitude of the effect will depend on the poorly studied balance of thermal versus photoperiodic cues for phenological events. 4457,1995,2,4,SEDIMENTARY RECORDS OF RECENT ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE IN LAKE BAIKAL| SIBERIA,Lake Baikal is the world's largest freshwater lake and is internationally famous for its rich and largely endemic biota. Concern about this unique ecosystem has grown since the late 1970s but whether recent biological changes result from natural fluctuations or pollution is unclear. One way of discriminating between these processes is to examine records of recent change in radiometrically dated deep-water sediment cores. Here we use high-resolution diatom analysis of one core to show that abundances have not changed significantly over recent decades. By contrast| we demonstrate that the lake is contaminated by atmospheric pollutants and has experienced a small qualitative change in soil derived magnetic minerals. Sedimentary lead concentrations show an increasing trend in the c. 150-year core sequence and spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs) contaminate post-1930 sediment. Although we provide no evidence that twentieth-century pollution has affected the endemic planktonic diatoms in the central western region of southern Lake Baikal| longer trends in species abundances could be related to naturally occurring climatic cycles or to global warming. 4468,1995,2,3,SENSITIVITY OF 4 WHEAT SIMULATION-MODELS TO CLIMATE-CHANGE,Crop simulation models may be valuable in anticipating crop production under a changed climate. We compared four computer simulation models of wheat| crop estimation through resources and environment synthesis (CERES)| erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC)| Stewart and Sinclair| for evaluating the impact of climate change on dryland spring wheat yield for continuous rotation in southern Alberta. To a varying extent| the four models showed decreases in dryland spring wheat yields due to high temperature and low precipitation. All the models except Stewart had similar sensitivity to low precipitation; however| they showed differences to high-moisture conditions. Within the range considered| the Sinclair model was the most sensitive to temperature| followed by CERES and Stewart. Only EPIC indicated optimum temperature and precipitation levels| while CERES had the most pronounced precipitation optimum. Although the CERES| Stewart and Sinclair models have different phenology submodels| they predicted similar phenological response to a doubled CO2 climate scenario generated from the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model for Lethbridge| AB. Growing seasons shortened by 19 d were predicted using CERES and 18 d by using the Sinclair and Stewart models. The CERES| Stewart and Sinclair models were modified to include the effect of CO2 on radiation-use-efficiency. With current atmospheric CO2 concentration in the future climate scenario| the EPIC and Stewart models predicted significant (25%) and non-significant (3%) yield increases for dryland wheat and Sinclair and CERES predicted yield losses. Higher CO2 levels may compensate for the effect of global warming; doubling CO2 from present levels in a warmer climate scenario resulted in yield increase predictions at different amplitudes using EPIC| Stewart and CERES and a slight yield decrease with Sinclair. 4397,1995,2,4,SENSITIVITY OF A PRAIRIE WETLAND TO INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES,We assessed the potential effects of increased temperature and changes in amount and seasonal timing of precipitation on the hydrology and vegetation of a semi-permanent prairie wetland in North Dakota using a spatially-defined| rule-based simulation model. Simulations were run with increased temperatures of 2 degrees C combined with a 10 percent increase or decrease in total growing season precipitation. Changes in precipitation were applied either evenly across all months or to individual seasons (spring| summer| or fall). The response of semi-permanent wetland P1 was relatively similar under most of the seasonal scenarios. A 10 percent increase in total growing season precipitation applied to summer months only| to fall months only| and over all months produced lower water levels compared to those resulting from the current climate due to increased evapotranspiration. Wetland hydrology was most affected by changes in spring precipitation and runoff. Vegetation response was relatively consistent across scenarios. Seven of the eight seasonal scenarios produced drier conditions with no open water and greater vegetation cover compared to those resulting from the current climate. Only when spring precipitation increased did the wetland maintain an extensive open water area (49 percent). Potential changes in climate that affect spring runoff| such as changes to spring precipitation and snow melt| may have the greatest impact on prairie wetland hydrology and vegetation. In addition| relatively small changes in water level during dry years may affect the period of time the wetland contains open water. Emergent vegetation| once it is established| can survive under drier conditions due to its ability to persist in shallow water with fluctuating levels. The model's sensitivity to changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns accentuates the need for accurate regional climate change projections from general circulation models. 4419,1995,4,2,SENSITIVITY OF DIRECT GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS TO KEY UNCERTAINTIES,The concept of global warming potential was developed as a relative measure of the potential effects on climate of a greenhouse gas as compared to CO2. In this paper a series of sensitivity studies examines several uncertainties in determination of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs). For example| the original evaluation of GWPs for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC| 1990) did not attempt to account for the possible sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2) that could balance the carbon cycle and produce atmospheric concentrations of CO2 that match observations. In this study| a balanced carbon cycle model is applied in calculation of the radiative forcing from CO2. Use of the balanced model produces up to 21% enhancement of the GWPs for most trace gases compared with the IPCC (1990) values for time horizons up to 100 years| but a decreasing enhancement with longer time horizons. Uncertainty limits of the fertilization feedback parameter contribute a 20% range in GWP values. Another systematic uncertainty in GWPs is the assumption of an equilibrium atmosphere (one in which the concentration of trace gases remains constant) versus a disequilibrium atmosphere (one in which the concentration of trace gases varies with time). The latter gives GWPs that are 19 to 32% greater than the former for a 100 year time horizons| depending upon the carbon dioxide emission scenario chosen. Five scenarios are employed: constant-concentration| constant-emission past 1990 and the three IPCC (1992) emission scenarios. For the analysis of uncertainties in atmospheric lifetime (tau) the GWP changes in direct proportion to tau for short-lived gases| but to a lesser extent for gases with tau greater than the time horizontal for the GWP calculation. 2565,1995,2,3,Sensitivity of Inner Mongolia grasslands to climate change,We investigated the effects of global climate change and doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration to plant primary production and soil organic matter of typical steppe (Leymus chinense steppe and Stipa grandis steppe) and meadow steppe (Filifolium sibiricum steppe| S. baicalensis steppe and L. chinense steppe) at individual sites in Inner Mongolia| using the CENTURY ecosystem model. In the simulation of climate change| loss of soil organic C ranges from 783 gC.m(-2) in meadow steppe to 1485 gC.m(-2) in typical steppe| and annual above-ground net primary production (ANPP) decreases by 17.6 gC.m(-2) in meadow steppe to 29.5 gC.m(-2) in typical steppe under CCC (Canadian Climate Center). While under GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)| loss of soil organic C varies from 584 gC.m(-2) in typical steppe to 1164 gC.m(-2) in meadow steppe| and ANPP decreases in the range of 18.3 gC.m(-2) in typical steppe to 32.1 gC.m(-2) in meadow steppe. In the simulations of climate change plus elevated CO2 (from 350 p.p.m. to 700 p.p.m.)| ANPP decreases by 5.4 gC.m(-2) in meadow steppe to 11.3 gC.m(-2) in typical steppe under CCC + CO2| while ANPP varies from an increase of 1.8 gC.m(-2) in S. grrmdis steppe to a decrease of 20.6 gC.m(-2) in meadow steppe under GFDL + CO2. Losses of soil organic C are slightly lower (in the range of 42 gC.m(-2) to 248 gC.m(-2)) than losses of soil organic C under climate change only. These five steppe ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change| dependent upon projected change in temperature and precipitation by GCMs of CCC and GFDL. 4295,1995,4,3,Sensitivity of transient eddies to climate change in the CCC general circulation model,We use eddy life-cycle simulations to evaluate the response of atmospheric transient eddies to a global warming caused by CO2 doubling in the CCC general circulation model. In simulations using Northern Hemisphere winter conditions| transient waves attain larger kinetic energy and encompass a wider range of latitudes in the warmer climate. This behaviour contrasts with a previous investigation that used output from the NCAR and GFDL models. Our analysis indicates two primary factors for the difference between model responses: (1) a smaller change in the mid-latitude temperature gradient in the CCC model| which allows (2) increased atmospheric water vapour in mid-latitudes to catalyze a more rapidly evolving life-cycle. 4312,1995,2,3,SENSITIVITY TO PRESCRIBED CHANGES IN SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND SEA-ICE IN DOUBLED CARBON-DIOXIDE EXPERIMENTS,Time sclice experiments are performed with the atmospheric GCM ARPEGE| developed at Meteo-France| to study the impact to increases in the atmospheric carbon dioxide. This spectral model runs at T42 horizontal resolution with 30 vertical layers including a comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric resolution and a prognostic parameterization of the ozone mixing ratio. The model is forced in a 5-year control run by climatological SSTs and sea-ice extents in order to obtain an accurate simulation of the present-day climate. Two perturbed runs are performed using SSTs and sea-ice extents for doubled CO2 concentration| obtained from transient runs performed by two coupled atmospheric-oceanic models run at the Max Planck Institute (MPI) in Hamburg and the Hadley Centre (HC). A global surface temperature warming of 1.6 K is obtained with the MPI SST anomalies and 1.9 K with the HC SST anomalies. The precipitation rate increases by 4.2% (and 4.7%). The features obtained in the stratosphere (a cooling increasing with the altitude and an increase in the ozone mixing ratio) are not sensitive to the oceanic forcing. On the contrary| the ano malies in the troposphere such as a warming increasing with altitude| an acceleration of westerly jets and a raised cloud height| depend on the oceanic forcing imposed in the two perturbed runs. Special attention is given to continental areas where the impact of the oceanic forcing is studied over eight regions around the globe. Regions sensitive to oceanic forcing such as Europe are identified in contrast with areas where the patterns are driven by land-surface physical processes| such as over continental Asia. Finally| the Koppen classification is applied to the climate simulated in the three experiments. Both doubled CO2 runs show the same predominance of global warming over precipitation changes in the Koppen analyses. 4374,1995,2,4,SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IN THE CONTEXT OF A NIGHTTIME GLOBAL WARMING,The recent finding that most of the global warming observed these past decades is due to an increase of the nighttime temperature may have important implications on severe storms occurrence. Indeed| the daily minimum temperature which is generally recorded in the early morning is an approximation of the wet bulb potential temperature observed during the following afternoon| which is a storm predictor. A mean minimum temperature increase in a region will then probably be accompanied by an increase in thee storm frequency. This hypothesis is tested in France for the years 1946 to 1992 with the annual mean minimum temperature in summer being compared to a yearly hail severity index deduced from hail insurance data. The two elements are found to be year-to-year correlated| and the correlation gives a 40% increase in the hail damage for a 1 degrees C increase in the mean minimum temperature. 4322,1995,2,3,SIMPLE CARBON ASSIMILATION RESPONSE FUNCTIONS FROM ATMOSPHERIC CO2| AND DAILY TEMPERATURE AND SHORTWAVE RADIATION,A global 'CO2 fertilizer effect' multiplier is often used in crop or ecosystem models because of its simplicity. However| this approach does not take into account the interaction between CO2| temperature and light on assimilation. This omission can lead to significant under- or overestimation of the magnitude of beneficial effects from elevated CO2| depending on environmental conditions. We use a mechanistic model of the biochemistry of photosynthesis to represent the response of net assimilation to different levels of CO2| temperature and radiation| on the daily time scale. Instantaneous assimilation rates for an idealized canopy model are integrated through diurnal cycles of environmental variables derived from historical climate data at three locations in North America. The calculated CO2 fertilizer effect is greatest at high light and warm temperatures. The results are summarized by assimilation response surfaces specified by the CO2 concentration| the canopy leaf area index| and by daily values of temperature and radiation available from climatic records. These summary functions are suitable for incorporation into crop or ecosystem models for predicting carbon assimilation or biomass production on a daily time step. An example application of the function reveals that for a relatively cool| high latitude location| the beneficial effects from a CO2 doubling would be negligible during the early spring| even assuming a + 4 degrees C global warming scenario. In contrast| the beneficial effects from increasing CO2 at a relatively warm| lower latitude location are greatest in the spring| but decline in late summer because of excessively warm temperatures with a + 4 degrees C global warming. 2566,1995,2,4,Simulation studies on risk analysis of rice leaf blast epidemics associated with global climate change in several Asian countries,The combination model (coupling of CERERS-RICE and BLASTSIM) was used to study the effects of global climate change on rice leaf blast epidemics in several Asian countries by simulations. Historical daily weather data were collected from fifty-three locations in five Asian countries. Two weather generators| WGEN and WMAK| from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) were utilized to produce estimated daily weather data for each location. Effects of global climate change in terms of temperature change and enhanced UV-B (ultraviolet-B) on blast epidemics were simulated. Thirty years of daily weather data produced by one of the two generators for each of fifty-three locations in five Asian rice-growing countries were used for driving the combination model to simulate blast epidemics under each condition of global climate change. Maximum blast severity| the distribution of area under disease progress curve (AUDPC) and estimated yield losses caused by leaf blast resulting from 30 years of simulation were analysed statistically. In most locations| temperature changes had significant effects on disease development. However| these effects varied between different agroecological zones. In cool subtropical zones such as Japan and northern China| elevation of ambient temperature resulted in a higher risk of blast epidemics. Situations in the humid tropics and warm humid subtropics were opposite to those in cool areas. A lower temperature resulted in greater risk of blast epidemics. Higher AUDPC did not always cause more yield losses. The same AUDPCs did not cause the same yield losses during different growing seasons under different weather conditions. The yield loss caused by enhanced UV-B was normally at 9-10%| independent of temperature change| and the deviation was much smaller than that caused by blast. Enhanced UV-B would cause much more severe blast when the temperature changes to cooler than normal| especially in tropical countries. 4320,1995,2,4,SIMULTANEOUS EFFECTS OF NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE AND AN ALLELOCHEMICAL ON PERFORMANCE OF AN INSECT HERBIVORE,One effect of global warming may be an increase in night-time temperatures with daytime temperatures remaining largely unchanged. We examined this potential effect of global warming on the performance of tobacco hornworm larvae| Manduca sexta (Sphingidae)| by manipulating night-time temperature and dietary rutin levels simultaneously under a 12 light:12 dark photoregime. All four thermal regimes (26:14| 26:18| 26:22| and 26:26 degrees C) had a daytime temperature of 26 degrees C| with the night-time temperature increased from 14 to 26 degrees C by increments of 4 degrees C. Dietary rutin levels (0| 10 and 20 mu-moles g(-1) fresh weight of diet) reflected those occurring naturally in the leaves of tomato| a preferred host plant of M. sexta. With low night-time temperatures (14 and 18 degrees C)| rutin had a negative linear effect on developmental rate| relative growth rate and relative consumption rate of the caterpillars. However| at a night-time temperature of 22 degrees C| rutin had a negative non-linear effect. At a night-time temperature of 26 degrees C| rutin had a negative linear impact but less so than at the other nighttime temperatures. Likewise| the negative effect of rutin on molting duration was mitigated as night-time temperature increased. Final larval weight decreased linearly with increased dietary rutin concentrations. Total amount of food ingested was not affected by either rutin or thermal regime. As expected| the caterpillars developed faster under an alternating 26:14 degrees C regime than a constant 20 degrees C regime (the average temperature for the alternating regime)| but the effect of rutin depended on the thermal regime. Switching daytime and night-time temperatures had no statistically significant effect on caterpillar performance. Overall| the effect of rutin on rates of larval performance was greater at some levels of warmer nights but damped at another level. These results indicate that the potential effect of warmer nights on insect performance is not a simple function of temperature because there can be interactions between night-time temperature and dietary allelochemicals. 4462,1995,3,4,SOLAR HYDROGEN ELECTRICITY-GENERATION IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CO-2 EMISSION REDUCTION,The relative costs and CO2 emission reduction benefits of advanced centralized fossil fuel electricity generation| hybrid photovoltaic-fossil fuel electricity generation| and total solar electricity generation with hydrogen storage are compared. Component costs appropriate to the year 2000-2010 time frame are assumed throughout. For low insolation conditions (160 W m(-2) mean annual solar radiation)| photovoltaic electricity could cost 5-13 cents/kWh by year 2000-2010| while for high insolation conditions (260 W m(-2)) the cost could be 4-9 cents/kWh. Advanced fossil fuel-based power generation should achieve efficiencies of 50% using coal and 55% using natural gas. Carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced by a factor of 2 to 3 compared to conventional coal-based electricity production in industrialized countries. In a solar-fossil fuel hybrid| some electricity would be supplied from solar energy whenever the sun is shining and remaining demand satisfied by fossil fuels. This increases total capital costs but saves on fuel costs. For low insolation conditions| the costs of electricity increases by 0-2 cents/kWh| while the cost of electricity decreases in many cases for high insolation conditions. Solar energy would provide 20% or 30% of electricity demand for the low and high insolation cases| respectively. In the solar-hydrogen energy system| some photovoltaic arrays would provide current electricity demand while others would be used to produce hydrogen electrolytically for storage and later use in fuel cells to generate electricity. Electricity costs from the solar-hydrogen system are 0.2-5.4 cents/kWh greater than from a natural gas power plant| and 1.0-4.5 cents/kWh greater than from coal plant for the cost and performance assumptions adopted here. The carbon tax required to make the solar-hydrogen system competitive with fossil fuels ranges from $70-660/tonne| depending on the cost and performance of system components and the future price of fossil fuels. Leakage of hydrogen from storage into the atmosphere| and the eventual transport of a portion of the leaked hydrogen to the stratosphere| would result in the formation of stratospheric water vapor. This could perturb stratospheric ozone amounts and contribute to global warming. Order-of-magnitude calculations indicate that| for a leakage rate of 0.5% yr(-1) of total hydrogen production which might be characteristic of underground hydrogen storage - the global warming effect of solar-hydrogen electricity generation is comparable to that of a natural gas-solar energy hybrid system after one year of emission| but is on the order of 1% the impact of the hybrid system at a 100 year time scale. Impacts on stratospheric ozone are likely to be minuscule. 2593,1995,3,3,STATE ROLES IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE ISSUE,Events in 1988 helped focus the attention of several states on the global climate change issue. Consequently| the National Governors' Association conducted an assessment in 1989 and recommended various actions. By 1994| 22 states have enacted laws or regulations and/or established research programs addressing climate change. Most of these ''no regrets'' actions are set up to conserve energy or improve energy efficiency and also to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Illinois has adopted an even broader program by 1) establishing a Global Climate Change Office to foster research and provide information and 2) forming a task force to address a wide array of issues including state input to federal policies such as the Clinton administration's 1993 Climate Change Action Plan and to the research dimensions of the U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program. The Illinois program calls for increased attention to studies of regional impacts| including integrated assessments| and to research addressing means to adapt to future climate change. These various state efforts to date help show the direction of policy development and should be useful to those grappling with these issues. 4411,1995,4,4,STATISTICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE,Major changes to the global environment and their impact upon statistical requirements are presented. The need for extensive yet accurate datasets is stressed and the difficulties of achieving appropriate sampling strategies are described. Examples are presented of environmental studies in use in diverse field such as global warming| sustainability| agroforestry and intercropping| and local community studies. The history of the use of environmental statistics is highlighted as is the need for modern methods to handle large| multivariate datasets likely to be subject to both spatial and temporal variability. 4433,1995,5,3,SURFACE FIELD CONVECTION DURING CORDILLERAN EXTENSION AND THE GENERATION OF METAMORPHIC CO2 CONTRIBUTIONS TO CENOZOIC ATMOSPHERES,Modeling of hydrogeological regimes associated with crustal extension indicate that flux values for deeply convected meteoric water are on the order of 10(-3) m3 . m-2 . yr-1. Calculated CO2 fluxes produced by infiltration-driven| metamorphic decarbonation reactions along the circulation path are 2.4 x 10(-4) m3 . m-2 . yr-1 or 3.8 mol . m-2 . yr-1. Application of the model to Cenozoic extension in the North American Cordillera demonstrates that CO2 generated in this manner may have been a major contributor to elevated CO2 contents of Cenozoic atmospheres and the resulting global warming due to the CO2 greenhouse effect. 4329,1995,3,3,SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN INDONESIA - A CASE-STUDY OF AN INDIGENOUS REGIME OF ENVIRONMENTAL-LAW AND POLICY,The tropical rainforests of Indonesia are threatened with deforestation caused by rapid economic development. Because this development hastens global warming and reduces biodiversity| it violates the doctrine of sustainable development. The Brundtland report| Our Common Future (Brundtland| 1987)| defined sustainable development as 'development that meets the needs of the present| without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs'. Sustainable development was adopted as the overarching world development policy of the 21st century at the Earth Summit in 1992| which introduced international accords to integrate economic development and environmental protection| manage and conserve the world's forests| stabilize production of the gases that cause global warming| and conserve the variety of living species. Indonesia views sustainable development with suspicion and is committed to economic development on the Western model. Sustainable development advocates| however| seek to save the Indonesian rainforests because they amount to 10% of those remaining in the world. They fear that the destruction of Indonesia's rainforests will| by hastening global warming| burden future generations with such problems as coastal flooding| migration of agricultural regions and habitat loss and| by reducing biodiversity| deprive them of the opportunity to study species and use them to improve the human condition. The conservation of the tropical rainforests of Indonesia may depend on the rediscovery of its indigenous natural resource systems| which are tantamount to a regime of environmental law and policy. These systems include the water temple system of Ball| the home-garden system of Java| the adat and sasi systems of Nusa Tenggara and Maluku| the land-tenure system of West Kalimantan| the shifting cultivation system of East Kalimantan| and the traditional non-timber production systems of forest dwellers. These systems| which are characterized by permaculture| biodiversity conservation| property rights| and sustained yields| prevent Hardin's 'tragedy of the commons' (Hardin| 1968)| and foster Leopold's 'biotic integrity' (Leopold| 1968). As a paradigm of land use governance| such systems have sustained the economy and environment of Indonesia on behalf of its people for millennia. It is concluded that the indigenous natural resource systems of Indonesia have a vital role to play in its sustainable development.
4290,1995,2,3,Synoptic scale disturbances of the Indian summer monsoon as simulated in a high resolution climate model,The Hamburg atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM3 at T106 resolution (1.125 degrees lat./lon.) has considerable skill in reproducing the observed seasonal reversal of mean sea level pressure| the location of the summer heat low as well as the position of the monsoon trough over the Indian subcontinent. The present-day climate and its seasonal cycle are realistically simulated by the model over this region. The model simulates the structure| intensity| frequency| movement and lifetime of monsoon depressions remarkably well. The number of monsoon depressions/storms simulated by the model in a year ranged from 5 to 12 with an average frequency of 8.4 yr(-1)| not significantly different from the observed climatology. The model also simulates the interannual variability in the formation of depressions over the north Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon season. In the warmer atmosphere under doubled CO2 conditions| the number of monsoon depressions/cyclonic storms forming in Indian seas in a year ranged from 5 to 11 with an average frequency of 7.6 yr(-1)| not significantly different from those inferred in the control run of the model. However| under doubled CO2 conditions| fewer depressions formed in the month of June. Neither the lowest central pressure nor the maximum windspeed changes appreciably in monsoon depressions identified under simulated enhanced greenhouse conditions. The analysis suggests there will be no significant changes in the number and intensity of monsoon depressions in a warmer atmosphere. 2574,1995,3,3,SYSTEM FOR COUNTERMEASURES OF CARBON-DIOXIDE,Mitigation measures to global climate change are classified focusing on carbon dioxide in order to cover all potential technologies. A templet is proposed to assess each technology and technological systems under the standardized criteria. 4358,1995,3,3,SYSTEM-ANALYSIS OF CO2 REMOVAL FROM THERMAL ELECTRIC-POWER PLANTS AND STORAGE IN DEEP-SEA,Thermal power plants located in Japan| burning coal| petroleum| LNG or methanol| were analyzed here from the viewpoint of the energy balance and the overall CO2 emission| including the emission from the fuel treatment stage such as the mining of fossil fuels| transportation| and the post-combustion stage such as CO2 removal and storage. The reduction of the net CO2 emission by CO2 removal and storage is the largest for the coal fired plant of others| but the decrease in the energy efficiency is also the largest. This result suggests that if there is not any problems for supplying coal| CO2 removal and storage should be equipped on the coal fired plants to mitigate the global warming. 4304,1995,4,4,Tackling air pollution: The role of the local highway authority,The paper describes how Lancashire County Council initially undertook. a 'Green Audit' in 1989 to determine the state of the environment in Lancashire and to provide a baseline for comparison purposes in the future. Following this comprehensive study| an Environmental Forum| comprising 80 organizations| was established. This was responsible for producing an Environmental Action Programme (EAP) in March 1993. The paper discusses the major measures relating to transport in the EAP and how they contribute to the relief of global warming| to reviving towns| to improving air quality| and to conserving wild life and the countryside. These measures are also linked to the sustainability objectives as put forward by the Earth Summit Conference in Rio de Janeiro in 1992| and subsequently by those of the European Union and the UK. Government. The paper relates the EAP measures| issued jointly by the Department of the Environment and the Department of Transport. Planning Policy Guidance on Transport (PPG13). It discusses the recommendations of recent transport studies undertaken in the major urban areas of Lancashire and the way measures to promote more sustainable transport policies have been translated into package bids for TPP purposes| The paper proceeds to describe a vehicle emissions model for assessing the effects of road improvements or traffic management measures on air pollution| and concludes with a discussion on aspects of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution's 18th Report on Transport and the Environment. 4405,1995,3,3,TECHNICAL PROGRESS AND CLIMATIC-CHANGE,The global warming debate has neglected and thus underestimated the importance of technical change in considering reduction in greenhouse gases and adaptation to climate change| Relevant quantitative cases of long-run technical change during the past 100 years are presented in computing| communications| transport| energy| and agriculture| A noteworthy technological trajectory is that of decarbonization| or decreasing carbon intensity of primary energy| If human societies have not yet reached the end of the history of technology| the cost structure for mitigation and adaptation changes could be cheap. 4436,1995,2,4,TEMPERATURE AND LAKE-OUTLET COMMUNITIES,1. Lake outlets are formed where streams become impounded by natural processes| or as the result of human activities. Water can drain from the surface of the lake| or from lower in the water column and the physico-chemical| and biotic| characteristics of these two types of lake outlets are very different during lake stratification. 2. Temperature will have effects on the lake water and on the lake-outlet community. The effect of temperature on the surface waters of the lake will be of special importance since this is the region where the influence of solar radiation is at its highest. Warming of the surface waters of lakes will have many direct| and indirect effects| on the lake-outlet communities. 3. Increasing temperature above levels currently found will have both advantages| and disadvantages for components of the lake-outlet communities. 4396,1995,4,4,TEMPERATURE EFFECTS OF PASSIVE GREENHOUSE APPARATUS IN HIGH-LATITUDE CLIMATE-CHANGE EXPERIMENTS,1. Passive greenhouse apparatus is commonly used to investigate the in situ biological response of terrestrial communities to global warming. 2. Although close conformity of greenhouse treatment effects to general circulation model (GCM) scenarios is widely claimed| no proof of such a relationship has yet been published. 3. Here| the relationship between passive greenhouse thermal environment and future climate conditions is considered using temperature data collected from within and without greenhouses deployed in the maritime Antarctic. It is revealed that in terms of thermal extremes| diel and annual variation| and overall distribution across the temperature spectrum| such apparatus achieves only poor simulation of GCM forecasts. 4. During summer| greenhouses induce an amplified daily range of temperatures| elevated maxima and accelerated rates of change. 5. During spring and autumn| diel temperature variation continues inside the greenhouses while snow cover protects the controls. 6. During winter| an inverse treatment effect occurs| in which the relative depth of snow cover causes lower temperatures in greenhouses than in controls. 7. These treatment effects differ significantly from GCM climate predictions. Changes recorded in the composition| structure and function of greenhouse biota may thus be artefacts of the methodology. 8. Thorough a priori testing of greenhouse treatment effects is recommended for future climate change studies that are to be conducted in environments subject to seasonal snowfall| solar elevation and day length. 2602,1995,2,4,TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON KINETICS OF MICROBIAL RESPIRATION AND NET NITROGEN AND SULFUR MINERALIZATION,Global climate change may impact the cycling of C| N| and S in forest ecosystems because increased soil temperatures could alter rates of microbially mediated processes. We studied the effects of temperature on microbial respiration and net N and S mineralization in surface soils from four northern hardwood forests in the Great Lakes region. Soil samples were incubated in the laboratory at five temperatures (5| 10| 15| 20| and 25 degrees C) for 32 wk. Headspace gas was analyzed for CO2-C at 2-wk intervals| and soils were extracted to determine inorganic N and S. Cumulative respired C and mineralized N and S increased with temperature at all sites and were strongly related (r(2) = 0.67 to 0.90| significant at P = 0.001) to an interaction between temperature and soil organic C. Production of respired C and mineralized N was closely fit by first-order kinetic models (r(2) greater than or equal to 0.94| P = 0.001)| whereas mineralized S was best described by zero-order kinetics. Contrary to common assumptions| rate constants estimated from the first-order models were not consistently related to temperature| but apparent pool sizes of C and N were highly temperature dependent. Temperature effects on microbial respiration could not be accurately predicted using temperature-adjusted rate constants combined with a constant pool size of labile C. Results suggest that rates of microbial respiration and the mineralization of N and S may be related to a temperature-dependent constraint on microbial access to substrate pools. Simulation models should rely on a thorough understanding of the biological basis underlying microbially mediated C| N| and S transformations in soil. 4326,1995,4,3,TEMPERATURE-GRADIENT CHAMBERS FOR RESEARCH ON GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT CHANGE .3. A SYSTEM DESIGNED FOR RICE IN KYOTO| JAPAN,Synthesis and validation of crop models for assessment of of the impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and anticipated global warming on crop production require crop response data obtained under field-like conditions| The temperature gradient chamber (TGC) with the facility for CO2 enrichment allows the creation of various CO2 and temperature regimes for crops over the entire growth period with relatively inexpensive construction and running costs| The TGC develops a temperature gradient along its longitudinal axis using solar energy during the day and heating at night while maintaining the natural diurnal cycle| The temperature gradient and the CO2 concentration in the TGC are regulated by computer control of the air ventilation rate through the TGC and of the CO2 release rate| Longitudinal gradients of CO2 concentration and water vapour pressure deficit of air in the TGC were generally less than 5% and +/-0.2 kPa| respectively. A CO2 enrichment experiment on rice in the TGC showed that a doubling of the CO2 concentration markedly enhanced crop dry matter production| Temperature had less effect on dry matter production| although panicle dry weight was greatly decreased at higher temperature as a result of high-temperature-induced sterility of rice spikelets| Since rice spikelets are most sensitive to high temperature at the moment of flowering| and their flowering habit is highly synchronized with the diurnal courses of environmental conditions| the TGC is a useful tool in understanding rice responses to changes in atmosphere and temperature. 2607,1995,4,4,The ANTARES AMS centre: A status report,The ANTARES accelerator mass spectrometry facility at Lucas Heights Research Laboratory is operational and AMS measurements of C-14| Al-26 and Cl-36 are being carried out routinely. Measurement of I-129 recently commenced and capabilities for other long-lived radioisotopes such as Be-10 are being established. The overall aim of the facility is to develop advanced programs in Quaternary science| global climate change| biomedicine and nuclear safeguards. 4421,1995,2,3,The arctic flux study: A regional view of trace gas release,Fluxes of trace gases from northern ecosystems represent a highly uncertain and potentially significant component of the arctic land-atmosphere system| especially in the context of greenhouse-induced climate change. The initial goal of the Arctic Flux Study (a part of NSF's Arctic System Science Program) is a regional estimate of the present and future movement of materials between the land| atmosphere and ocean in the Kuparuk River basin in northern Alaska. We are measuring rates and controls of processes along a north-south transect running from the marshy coastal plain to mountain valleys. Important vertical fluxes under study are the release of CO2 and CH4 from soils and water| lateral fluxes are surface water| nutrients| and organic matter. A hierarchy of measurements allow the rates and understanding of processes to be scaled from plots to the landscape| regional| and circumarctic level. These include gas flux measurements in small chambers| measurements over larger areas by eddy correlation from small towers| and measurements at the landscape scale from airplane overflights. Experimental manipulations of carbon dioxide| soil moisture| nutrients and soil temperature from this and other studies give information on process controls. The distribution of plant communities has been described at several landscape-scale sites and a hierarchic GIS has been developed for the region at three scales (plot| landscape| region). Climate is measured at six sites and hydrological processes are being studied at each watershed scale. In the soils| measurements are being made of soil organic matter and active layer thickness and of availability of soil organic matter for microbial transformation into CO2 and CH4. Fluxes and process understanding have been incorporated into a hierarchy of models at different scales. These include models of regional climate nested in a GCM; of regional- and continental-scale plant productivity and carbon cycling including CO2 release under altered climates; watershed and regional models of hydrology; and surface energy budgets. After the first year of study the regional climate model has been successfully configured to the northern Alaska region We have also measured a large release of carbon dioxide from tundra soils in all but the coldest and wettest parts of the transect. The rates from eddy correlation towers (landscape level) agree closely with rates from chambers (plot level). Observations| experimental manipulations and modelling analyses result in the prediction that the combination of warmer and drier soils is responsible for the large CO2 release. 4300,1995,2,4,The boreal forests of north-eastern Eurasia,The distribution| diversity and structure of boreal forests of monsoon Asia are reviewed. The boreal zone is circumscribed by the isotherms of 15 degrees C and 45 degrees C of Kira's Warmth Index (WI) and includes the territory of the Amur basin| the seashores of the Sea of Okhotsk| Kamchatka| Sakhalin and the Kuril islands. Boreal forests also occur on the mountains of Hokkaido| Honshu| Korea and NE China. The oceanic sectors of the boreal zone are composed mainly of birch forests| the marine sectors of spruce-fir forests and the continental sectors of larch and pine forests. The upper limit of the boreal forests ascends from the lowest level in the North to ca. 1500 m a.s.l. in the South of the zone| and reaches above 2500 m in the mountains of the temperate zone. In the boreal zone the secondary forests are common. They form after fires and cutting. Volcanism is an essential factor in the forest dynamics in the oceanic part of the region. It is suggested that as a result of global warming one may expect a strong alteration in vegetation pattern| especially in the northern and mountain areas. 4314,1995,3,4,THE COMPARATIVE AIR EMISSIONS OF DIESEL-FUELED AND COMPRESSED-NATURAL-GAS-FUELED BUSES IN VENEZUELA - A CASE-STUDY EMPLOYING A FUEL CHAIN APPROACH,Energy services| such as one hour of lighting| or one passenger kilometer of transportation depend upon significant chains of preceding activities in the energy sector. The stages in a fuel chain| for example crude oil recovery| oil refining| or fuel distribution often have significant environmental impacts. Fuel chain analysis is a means of accurately comparing the environmental impacts of alternative energy policy| planning| and investment decisions. A fuel chain analysis was used to compare air emissions from diesel- and compressed-natural-gas- (CNG) fueled buses in Caracas. Because of methane emissions from the existing natural gas recovery and transmission systems in Venezuela| and the lower efficiency of heavy-duty compressed natural gas vehicles in comparison to diesel vehicles| the campressed natural gas fuel chain is not clearly a good choice from the perspective of global warming potential (GWP). However| emissions of local air pollutants| such as particulates| carbon monoxide| and nitrogen oxides| were significantly lower for the CNG fuel chain. The results suggests that a CNG vehicle program may only achieve significant greenhouse gas emission reductions if it can be associated (either directly or indirectly) with decreases in flaring| venting| and other fugitive emissions fi om the natural gas system| or if the efficiency of heavy duty CNG engines improves in comparison to diesel engines. The fuel chain approach has also been applied to an analysis of electricity generating options in Venezuela| and it may be applicable to other sectors and countries conducting greenhouse gas mitigation analyses. 4439,1995,2,4,THE CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL WARMING FOR STREAM INVERTEBRATES - A FIELD SIMULATION,1. We manipulated the thermal regime of a stream and analyzed the population genetics of constituent species to examine the effects of global warming on stream invertebrates. 2. Increased temperature resulted in significantly lower total densities of invertebrates and altered growth patterns for two target species. 3. Hyalella azteca showed the greatest change in growth and also exhibited high levels of genetic differentiation among populations. Nemoura trispinosa showed only small shifts in growth and phenology and exhibited little genetic differentiation among populations. 4. The potential impacts of global warming may depend critically on the dispersal abilities and genetic structure of lotic populations. 2597,1995,2,4,THE ECOLOGY OF MANGROVE CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT,Despite the recent better understanding and awareness of the role of mangroves| these coastal forest communities continue to be destroyed or degraded (or euphemistically reclaimed) at an alarming rate. The figure of 1% per year given by Ong (1982) for Malaysia can be taken as a conservative estimate of destruction of mangroves in the Asia-Pacific region. Whilst the Japanese-based mangrove wood-chips industry continues in its destructive path through the larger mangrove ecosystems of the region| the focus of mangrove destruction has shifted to the conversion of mangrove areas into aquaculture ponds and the consequences of the unprecedented massive addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by post industrial man. Mangroves are non-homogeneous; characterised by distinct vegetative zones that occupy the interface between land and sea and dynamically interacting with the atmosphere above as well as with the influences of the adjacent land and sea. The conservation of mangroves should thus include not only the various vegetation and tidal inundation zones but also the adjacent marine and terrestrial areas (including the water catchment area). On the current concern with global climate change| it is pointed out that relative sea level change is very much site dependent. For effective planning and management| it is vital to know if a particular site is stable| rising or sinking so efforts should be directed to find suitable methods for determining this. However| should rapid relative sea level rise take place| there is very little likelihood of saving mangroves whose landward margins have been developed by man| a fact to bear in mind when selecting sites for conservation. The Matang mangroves of Malaysia is a rare case of successful sustainable management of a tropical rain forest. Although the tools of management are available they are not widely applied. We particularly urge the Japanese mangrove wood-chips industry to look to long term sustainable use rather than short term gains. A suggestion is made to appeal to the new Government of Japan to take the lead in environmental friendliness especially to the rain forests of the Asia-Pacific region. 4403,1995,3,4,THE ECONOMICS OF STABILIZING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATIONS,This paper examines the economics of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations| A particular concentrations target can be achieved in a variety of ways| It turns out that the choice of emissions time-path is as important as the concentrations level itself in determining the ultimate price-tag| Rather than choosing arbitrary emission trajectories| more attention needs to be devoted to identifying those paths that minimize the costs of achieving a specific target. 4310,1995,2,4,THE EFFECT OF CLOUDS AND WIND ON THE DIFFERENCE IN NOCTURNAL COOLING RATES BETWEEN URBAN AND RURAL-AREAS,The urban warming effect is interesting in its own right and is important for understanding global warming. The aim of this study is to determine how the urban warming effect changes with cloud conditions and with wind speed. Studies of the urban warming effect have mostly concentrated on the urban-rural difference in daily maximum or minimum temperatures. The problem was approached using a new technique. Instead of comparing a city| represented by a first-order weather station| with the surrounding rural area| represented by data collected by cooperative observers; pairs of cities| each with a first-order weather station| were studied. One city was large. The other city was small enough to have a minimal warming effect and was close enough to the larger city to approximately represent the rural area. In this way| hourly temperatures| cloud cover| and wind data could be studied rather than only the differences between the daily maxima or minima. Results show that wind disrupts the normal nocturnal cooling pattern in which the smaller city| with lower thermal inertia| cools more quickly than the larger city. Clouds also disrupt this pattern| at least to the extent that one must be careful about extrapolating either magnitudes or patterns of urban-rural temperature difference observed by satellites under clear sky conditions to partly cloudy or cloudy conditions. 4353,1995,2,4,THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC HABITAT DISTURBANCE| HABITAT DESTRUCTION| AND GLOBAL WARMING ON SHALLOW MARINE BENTHIC FORAMINIFERA,Protists such as benthic foraminifera are not immune to the effects of global warming or to shallow marine environmental degradation and destruction caused by the activities of humans. Increasing environmental stresses are likely to lead| in the near future| to disruption and dynamic restructuring of communities| localized extinctions of both rare and abundant species| and total extinction of rare species (and| perhaps| abundant species) in the shallow marine environment. Low latitude and/or developed coastal environments and communities are likely to experience the greatest changes. The role of benthic foraminifera in the trophic structure of shallow marine communities dictates that many other organisms will be affected by changes in the structure and diversity of shallow marine foraminiferal populations. 4464,1995,3,4,THE EXPECTED GREENHOUSE BENEFITS FROM DEVELOPING MAGMA POWER AT LONG VALLEY| CALIFORNIA,Magma power is the production of electricity from shallow magma bodies. Before magma becomes a practical source of power| many engineering problems must still be solved. When they are solved| the most likely site for the first magma power plant is Long Valley| California| USA. In this paper| we examine the greenhouse benefits from developing Long Valley. By generating magma power and by curtailing an equal amount of fossil power| we estimate the expected mass and the expected discounted value of reduced CO2 emissions. For both measures| the expected benefits seem to be substantial. 4363,1995,3,3,THE FULL FUEL-CYCLE OF CO2 CAPTURE AND DISPOSAL .3. AFFORESTATION| AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS,This paper reports on the assessment and valuation of the environmental impacts arising from the full fuel cycles of three fossil fuelled power plants equipped with CO2 capture and disposal facilities. The first of these is a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plant featuring CO2 separation and disposal to a disused gas well. The second is an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plant featuring CO2 separation and disposal to the deep ocean. The third case is a pulverised fuel plant with flue gas desulphurisation (PF+FGD) with CO2 capture by a managed forest at a site remote from the power plant. A wide variety of impacts have been assessed at local| regional and global scales. They include accidents affecting workers and the public| the effects of atmospheric emissions on health and buildings and the impacts of global warming. Issues associated with management of the forest designed to capture CO2 from the PF plant and assessment of the associated costs are also described. 4471,1995,3,4,THE FUTURE-ROLE OF NUCLEAR-POWER IN ADDRESSING GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL-PROBLEMS,Decision makers have to increasingly balance the costs versus benefits of various energy choices against a background of global environmental deterioration. This is particularly so in the choice of long term electricity production strategies where these have to be balanced against the potential of a very severe disruption of the world's climate due to global warming. In this presentation| the threat of global warming is quantified and scenarios are developed of future predicted energy consumption patterns and their impact on international policies to curb global warming| are analyzed. The conclusion is reached that the threat of global warming is so severe that| on the macro level| an international accepted strategy of utilising a proper balance between all forms of electricity production| is a matter of priority and that all national energy choices should be taken against this framework. Such strategic decisions on the macro level must| however| also translate into the micro level of energy production on topics which include: more efficient plant utilisation; more effective risk management; correct choice and application of technology; and better understanding of issues concerning safety| quality and environmental impact. 4338,1995,2,4,THE HUMAN BIOCLIMATES OF WESTERN AND SOUTH-PACIFIC ISLANDS AND CLIMATE-CHANGE,The current bioclimates of equatorial Western and tropical South Pacific have been assessed| using the concepts of effective temperature and relative strain as a basis for evaluating likely changes in human comfort regimes as a consequence of global warming. Current bioclimates may be considered marginally stressful for indigenous populations. Global warming will result in changes in the frequency| duration and intensity of physioclimatically stressful conditions. 4372,1995,2,4,THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON MARITIME LOCAL-AUTHORITIES - DRAINAGE ASPECTS,The subject of this paper is part of a wider investigation into the engineering implications of the predicted sea-level rise as a result of climate change on a typical maritime local authority (MLA) using the Borough of Gosport in Hampshire as a detailed case study. The paper describes the analysis of the drainage systems of three catchment areas| each with different surface characteristics| within the Borough of Gosport. The performance of each system is examined under a combination of three possible sea-level rise scenarios and two possible storm conditions. The results give cause for concern and have to be taken seriously; it is proposed that effects of rising sea levels| due to global warming| should be taken into account in current design work. It is proposed that a new assessment procedure 'climatic impact assessment' becomes a compulsory requirement for all schemes that might be sensitive to the effects of climate change. Many professional engineers still do not consider that global warming effects will take place. However| this paper confirms that the concerns being expressed regarding the effects of climate change have to be taken seriously. It is likely that every MLA will be affected by these changes| and the cost implications of this are very significant. There is a serious lack of systematic data collection for assessment of the possible impacts. 2559,1995,2,2,THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON THE RIVER RHINE - A SCENARIO STUDY,This paper concerns the impact of human-induced global climate change on the River Rhine discharge. For this purpose a model for climate assessment| named ESCAPE| is coupled to a water balance model| named RHINEFLOW. From climate scenarios| changes in regional annual water availability and seasonal discharge in the River Rhine Basin are estimated. The climate scenarios are based on greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. An assessment is made for ''best guess'' seasonal discharge changes and for changes in frequencies of low and high discharges in the downstream reaches of the river. In addition| a quantitative estimation of the uncertainties associated with this guess is arrived at. The results show that the extent and range of uncertainty is large with respect to the ''best guess'' changes. The uncertainty range is 2-3 times larger for the Business-as-Usual than for the Accelerated Policies scenarios. This large range stems from the doubtful precipitation simulations from the present General Circulation Models. This scenario study showed the precipitation scenarios to be the key-elements within the present range of reliable climate change scenarios. For the River Rhine ''best guess'' changes for annual water availability are small according to both scenarios. The river changes from a present combined snow-melt-rain fed river to an almost entirely rain fed river. The difference between present-day large average discharge in winter and the small average discharge in autumn should increase for all scenarios. This trend is largest in the Alpine part of the basin. Here| winter discharges should increase even for scenarios forecasting annual precipitation decreases. Summer discharge should decrease. ''Best guess'' scenarios should lead to increased frequencies of both low and high flow events in the downstream (Dutch) part of the river. The results indicate changes could be larger than presently assumed in ''worst case scenarios'' used by the Dutch water management authorities. 4459,1995,2,4,THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON LOCAL INCOMES FROM RANGE LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS,Using standard census data| an index is developed expressing the contribution of range livestock systems to total county incomes. This index is then applied to results of a simulation of the effects of global warming on the productivity of cow-calf range livestock systems in the western USA. Estimates of declining range-based incomes in a southern tier of states coupled with increasing productivity in the middle and northern Great Plains| the inter-mountain Rockies and the Pacific Northwest suggest that significant shifts could occur in the location of feeder calf production if these climate changes occur. 2551,1995,2,4,THE INFLUENCE OF ELEVATED CO2 ON COMMUNITY STRUCTURE| BIOMASS AND CARBON BALANCE OF MEDITERRANEAN OLD-FIELD MICROCOSMS,We studied the effects of a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration on intact monoliths of Mediterranean grassland in growth chambers where climatic field conditions were simulated. During the six month growing season| changes in community structure were monitored by quantifying species richness and cover. The CO2 exchange of microcosms was measured continuously and the resulting quantity and quality of biomass were evaluated. Species richness and cover did not respond to elevated C02. After one month of treatment| CO2 exchange measured during the day did not differ between CO2 levels but the night respiration was two-fold higher under elevated CO2. Stimulations of both day and night CO2 flux by short-term CO2 enrichment were recorded several times during the growing season. These results suggest that despite some downward adjustment of photosynthesis| net canopy photosynthesis was stimulated by elevated CO2| but this stimulation was compensated for by an increased respiration. The 20% stimulation of final phytomass under elevated CO2 was not significant: it resulted from unchanged live plant matter but a significant| 100% increase in litter accumulation. These results suggest that in low-productivity Mediterranean herbaceous systems| the greatest effect of CO2 is not on the storage of carbon in biomass but on the turnover of the carbon in the plants. 4435,1995,2,4,THE INFLUENCE OF RISING BACKGROUND TEMPERATURE ON THE EFFECTS OF MARINE THERMAL EFFLUENTS,1. Discharged effluent waters from directly cooled power stations in temperate zones are some 8-12 degrees C warmer than intake temperatures. 2. The direct effects of thermal discharges on marine organisms fall into four categories| the mean temperature in relation to ''normal''| the absolute temperature (as it may approach lethal levels)| short-term fluctuations in temperature and potential barriers to fish migration. These conditions tend to favour eurythermal species| notably those from the littoral or warmer zoogeography| while inhibiting stenotherms or cooler-water species. 3. A potential increase in background temperature would exacerbate the effects of mean and absolute temperature| although operating on a ''previously selected'' local community. While a natural temperature rise of 1 degrees C above normal can have a marked impact on even littoral species| any effluent temperature effects will be localized within a small area. 4416,1995,2,3,THE POLE OF SEA-ICE IN 2X CO2 CLIMATE MODEL SENSITIVITY .1. THE TOTAL INFLUENCE OF SEA-ICE THICKNESS AND EXTENT,As a first step in investigating the effects of sea ice changes on the climate sensitivity to doubled atmospheric CO2| the authors use a standard simple sea ice model while varying the sea ice distributions and thicknesses in the control run. Thinner ice amplifies the atmospheric temperature sensitivity in these experiments by about 15% (to a warming of 4.8 degrees C)| because it is easier for the thinner ice to be removed as the climate warms. Thus| its impact on sensitivity is similar to that of greater sea ice extent in the control run| which provides more opportunity for sea ice reduction. An experiment with sea ice not allowed to change between the control and doubled CO2 simulations illustrates that the total effect of sea ice on surface air temperature changes| including cloud cover and water vapor feedbacks that arise in response to sea ice variations| amounts to 37% of the temperature sensitivity to the CO2 doubling| accounting for 1.56 degrees C of the 4.17 degrees C global warming. This is about four times larger than the sea ice impact when no feedbacks are allowed. The different experiments produce a range of results for southern high latitudes with the hydrologic budget over Antarctica implying sea level increases of varying magnitude or no change. These results highlight the importance of properly constraining the sea ice response to climate perturbations| necessitating the use of more realistic sea ice and ocean models. 4417,1995,2,4,THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON WINTER MORTALITY IN ENGLAND AND WALES,In Britain death rates from several important causes| particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases| rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health| and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors| particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics| are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis| pneumonia| ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However| these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate. 4469,1995,2,4,THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON SUMMER/AUTUMN CAULIFLOWER GROWTH IN THE UK,Separate established models of juvenility| vernalization and curd growth in cauliflower were used to estimate the duration of each growth phase in a sequence of crops of cv. White Fox for the years 1982-1992 inclusive. The models were then used to simulate what might happen to the same sequence of crops following potential rises in mean temperature of 0.3| 0.6| 0.9| 1.2| 1.5 and 3.0 degrees C associated with global warming. For early-emerging crops temperature rise greatly reduced the length of the juvenile and curd growth phases but had little effect on vernalization and consequently reduced the overall duration of growth. Later in the season temperature rise reduced the lengths of the juvenile and curd growth phases but increased the duration of vernalization because temperatures were beyond its optimum. The effect of this was such that in a few crops the overall duration of crop growth was increased. Increased temperatures were shown to increase significantly the variability of duration of vernalization while significantly reducing the variability of duration of curd growth. There were no significant effects on the variability of juvenility or the overall growth period. 2543,1995,4,4,THE QUALITY-CONTROL OF LONG-TERM CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA USING OBJECTIVE DATA-ANALYSIS,One of the major concerns with detecting global climate change is the quality of the data. Climate data are extremely sensitive to errant values and outliers. Prior to analysis of these time series| it is important to remove outliers in a methodical manner. This study provides statistically derived bounds for the uncertainty associated with surface temperature and precipitation measurements and yields a baseline dataset for validation of climate models as well as for a variety of other climatological uses. A two-step procedure using objective analysis was used to identify outliers. The first step was a temporal check that determines if a particular monthly value is consistent with other monthly values for the same station. The second step utilizes six different spatial interpolation techniques to estimate each monthly time series. Each of the methods is ranked according to its respective correlation coefficients with the actual time series| and the technique with the highest correlation coefficient is chosen as the best estimator. For both temperature and precipitation| a multiple regression scheme was found to be the best estimator for the majority of records. Results from the two steps are merged| and a combined set of quality control flags are generated. 4357,1995,3,3,THE ROLE OF CO2 REMOVAL AND DISPOSAL,This paper aims at examining the role of CO2 removal and disposal among various measures for CO2 abatement. The first part deals with the need of CO2 removal and disposal in the strategy toward stabilization of the air concentration of CO2. A macroscopic survey of CO2 emission in developed world indicates that reduction of CO2 emission will be a hard task as long as we employ only conventional measures and therefore implementation of innovative measures is indispensable for mankind to mitigate global warming substantially. The results of a model study on CO2 stabilization indicates that CO2 removal from flue gas and storage in some niches of the earth will play an important role within several tens years. The second part deals with the issue of CO2 ocean disposal| with referring to a controversy on its effectiveness in mitigating global warming and concludes that it is effective but needs more study both on science of CO2 behavior in the ocean and characteristics of damage function of global warming. Lastly the paper discusses the global strategy for CO2 abatement| taking into full account different stances of countries in the world and stresses the importance of concerted efforts of developed countries for RandD on CO2 removal and disposal technologies. 2608,1995,5,4,THE SUNDA AND SAHUL CONTINENTAL PLATFORM - LOST LAND OF THE LAST GLACIAL CONTINENT IN SE ASIA,Global climate change is the most significant phenomenon that may control the global variations of sea level over the coming thousands of years. During the alternate glacial and interglacial periods| ice-cap melting and ice accumulation in the high latitudes change the ocean water volume| which causes the sea level oscillations. For the longer periods| the change of sea level is due to the change of the basin volume following basin uplift or subsidence and the tectonic opening of the ocean floor due to plate motion. Some maximum glacial periods were marked by the very low sea level| about 125 m below the present sea level during the last glacial maximum| drying up and exposing the continental platform that was quickly covered by humid lowland tropical forest. The following rapid sea level rise due to the melting of the ice cap submerged the continent| transferring most of the carbon to the atmosphere. During the very low sea level| the deep pass Indian-Pacific Ocean Gateways remained open| allowing the global ocean current to go through the corridor between the two exposed platforms| Sunda in the West and Sahul in the East of the Indonesian Archipelago. Data obtained from these platforms will be important in order to understand the global climatic pattern from the Last Glacial Maximum (L.G.M. 18|000 BP) which was followed by a rapid sea level rise. 4366,1995,4,4,THE TEMPERATURE-DEPENDENCE OF SOIL ORGANIC-MATTER DECOMPOSITION| AND THE EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON SOIL ORGANIC-C STORAGE,One of the key questions in climate change research relates to the future dynamics of the large amount of C that is currently stored in soil organic matter. Will the amount of C in this pool increase or decrease with global warming? The future trend in amounts of soil organic C will depend on the relative temperature sensitivities of net primary productivity and soil organic matter decomposition rate. Equations for the temperature dependence of net primary productivity have been widely used| but the temperature dependence of decomposition rate is less clear. The literature was surveyed to obtain the temperature dependencies of soil respiration and N dynamics reported in different studies. Only laboratory-based measurements were used to avoid confounding effects with differences in litter input rates| litter quality| soil moisture or other environmental factors. A considerable range of values has been reported| with the greatest relative sensitivity of decomposition processes to temperature having been observed at low temperatures. A relationship fitted to the literature data indicated that the rate of decomposition increases with temperature at 0 degrees C with a Q(10) of almost 8. The temperature sensitivity of organic matter decomposition decreases with increasing temperature| indicated by the Q(10) decreasing with temperature to be about 4.5 at 10 degrees C and 2.5 at 20 degrees C. At low temperatures| the temperature sensitivity of decomposition was consequently much greater than the temperature sensitivity of net primary productivity| whereas the temperature sensitivities became more similar at higher temperatures. The much higher temperature sensitivity of decomposition than for net primary productivity has important implications for the store of soil organic C in the soil. The data suggest that a 1 degrees C increase in temperature could ultimately lead to a loss of over 10% of soil organic C in regions of the world with an annual mean temperature of 5 degrees C| whereas the same temperature increase would lead to a loss of only 3% of soil organic C for a soil at 30 degrees C. These differences are even greater in absolute amounts as cooler soils contain greater amounts of soil organic C. This analysis supports the conclusion of previous studies which indicated that soil organic C contents may decrease greatly with global warming and thereby provide a positive feed-back in the global C cycle. 2572,1995,3,2,THE USE OF MICROALGAE FOR ASSIMILATION AND UTILIZATION OF CARBON-DIOXIDE FROM FOSSIL FUEL-FIRED POWER-PLANT FLUE-GAS,The accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere| primarily as a result of the combustion of fossil fuels| has been linked to potential global climate change. Capture and utilization of the carbon dioxide by microalgae has emerged as a promising technology to help reduce emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants. Microalgae are of particular interest because of their rapid growth rates and tolerance to varying environmental conditions. We are currently conducting experiments on the growth of microalgae exposed to simulated flue gas. This technology is envisioned for open raceway cultivation ponds as a low cost implementation strategy. Coupling the production of fuel or commodity chemicals with the use of flue gas carbon dioxide as a microalgal nutrient is envisioned to be a cost-effective method of reducing the amount of carbon dioxide contributed to the atmosphere by fossil fuel-fired power plants. 2570,1995,2,3,THERMAL SKIN-EFFECT AND THE AIR-SEA FLUX OF CARBON-DIOXIDE - A SEASONAL HIGH-RESOLUTION ESTIMATE,Understanding the: role the oceans play in sequestering anthropogenic CO2 is crucial to understanding global climate change. Correct parameterization of air-sea flux of CO2 is an important challenge to modelers. Recently it has been demonstrated that the thin thermal layer at the surface of the ocean can lead to an underestimate of CO2 solubility (Robertson and Watson| 1992) We re-evaluate the effect of the cool thermal skin anti present a high-resolution seasonal estimate of its effect on the air-sea| flux of CO2. We. compare air-sea flux estimates derived using both a mean wind field and a more realistic Rayleigh distribution of the wind field. Using the mean monthly wind stress and a linear relationship between wind speed and the gas exchange coefficient of CO2 (Tans et al.| 1990)| we estimate that excluding the southern ocean| the surface. skin correction increases the air-sea flux of carbon by 0.48 Ct yr(-1). This is 25% lower than the correction suggested by Robertson and Watson (1992) and the difference is attributed to the better temporal and spatial resolution of the present data set. When a more realistic representation of the temporally varying winds is used| the corrected carbon flux decreases to 0.36 Ct yr(-1) Conservatively| adding a. 10% contribution fi om the southern ocean| we estimate a mean global increase. in CO2 flux clue to the skin effect of 0.39 Ct C yr(-1) This is 40% lower than the previous estimate of Robertson and Watson (1992). Finally| adopting the gas transfer parameterization of Liss and Merlivat (1984)| we estimate a CO2 flux anomaly of only 0.17 Gt C yr(-1) which is approximately 50% lower than the analogous estimate using the Tans et al. (1990) formulation and a full 75% lower than the estimate of Robertson Watson (1992). These results suggest that both a proper representation of the wind speed/flux correlation and a realistic distribution of the wind field is essential in making large-settle flux estimates. We also examine the seasonal variation of the thermal skin effect. The largest negative temperature gradients (-0.75 degrees C) are found during the northern hemisphere winter in the regions of the. Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream Currents| whereas the central North Pacific has a small positive temperature gradient during the summer months. 2544,1995,5,4,THERMALLY ANOMALOUS ASSEMBLAGES REVISITED - PATTERNS IN THE EXTRAPROVINCIAL LATITUDINAL RANGE SHIFTS OF PLEISTOCENE MARINE MOLLUSKS,Pleistocene faunas of the eastern Pacific shelf are characterized by thermally anomalous species assemblages-i.e.| coexisting species that inhabit different climatic regimes today. We used data on the latitudinal ranges of 2887 extant molluscan species to determine the biological basis of the Pleistocene faunal migrations. Overall| the species exhibiting the most extensive range shifts (termed extraprovincial species) were not drawn randomly from the available species pool| and the pattern is climatically asymmetrical. The latitudinal ranges of southern extraprovincial species are significantly wider on average than those of the species pool from which they were drawn| but the ranges of northern extraprovincials resemble those of their parent pool. This contrast is primarily a consequence of the biogeographic structure of the eastern Pacific fauna; water-mass boundaries are more effective barriers for southern species migrating north in response to changing climatic conditions than for northern species moving south. Our analysis of Pleistocene marine mollusks provides a biological and environmental context for species response to environmental change and permits predictions about the movement of eastern Pacific species relative to major environmental barriers in the face of future global change. 4443,1995,3,4,THIRD-WORLD DEBT AND TROPICAL DEFORESTATION,The deforestation and degradation of tropical forests are taking place at an extremely rapid pace. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)| the estimated annual rate of tropical deforestation during the 1981-1985 period was 113 846 square kilometers or 0.6% of the 1981 total forested area. The implications of the loss of these forests are staggering (Myers| N.| 1989. Deforestation Rates in Tropical Forests and Their Climatic Implications. Friends of the Earth| London). Tropical forests are extremely rich ecosystems which support a disproportionately large share of the world's plant and animal species. Forests play a crucial role in both nutrient and hydrological cycling and may provide sustainable economic benefits through managed harvesting of timber and the collection of non-timber products such as fruits| nuts| and rubber. Also| deforestation is a significant source of global warming through its effects on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the relationship between debt and deforestation| examining conceptual and empirical arguments that debt is a source of deforestation pressure. Our study develops a behavioral model which suggests that debt can lead to myopic behavior| leading to deforestation rates that may not be optimal in the long run| but are necessary in the short run to meet current constraints. Then| country-by-country data on debt| deforestation| and other variables are analyzed with regression analysis. It is shown that debt is significantly correlated with deforestation under a wide variety of assumptions and specifications. Our results indicate that debt is an important factor in the deforestation of tropical countries. There are certainly other sources of deforestation| both micro- and macroeconomic| which may vary significantly from country to country. However| we focus on debt because of its dominant role in the economies of developing countries| and because of the increased use of debt-for-nature swaps. The link between debt and deforestation that is suggested in this paper implies that debt-for-nature swaps may have a dual effect on deforestation. First| the contractual agreement is designed to preserve forests as part of the swap. Second| the reduction in debt may itself reduce the pressure to deforest| although this indirect effect is small. Our research provides evidence that reducing debt reduces deforestation| which may be an argument to offer deforesting third-world countries some form of debt relief| and to utilize more fully debt-for-nature swaps as a tool for preserving environmental quality. 4384,1995,4,4,TIME-DOMAIN ANALYSIS OF SOFAR PROPAGATION IN LOW-LATITUDE SEA AREA BY WAVE THEORY AND RAY THEORY,In investigation into the phenomenon of global warming| ocean acoustic tomography (OAT) has been used for analysis. In this analysis method| the most important factor is exact calculation of the sound speed in water| that is| the sound wave propagation time. However| so far| analysis of SOFAR propagations in the low-latitude sea area has been lacking. Such a sea area is very important for analysis of the El Nino Current and others| although a special sound speed structure appears in the region of uniform sound speed formed around the SOFAR axis. For SOFAR propagation| we have compared time-domain results using two models| based on the measurement of far-range sound wave propagation in the sea east of Mindanao Island. The models chosen for the analysis are Stickler's normal mode method (SNM) and ray approximations. (The SNM time series is obtained via Fourier synthesis.) By this means we examined the characteristics of wave theory and ray theory in the low-latitude sea area.
4470,1995,3,4,Toxicological properties of halon substitutes,Halon fire extinguishing agents are used throughout the world to protect valuable electronics| oil and gas production operations| military systems| as well as a number of other critical facilities. Unfortunately| halons deplete stratospheric ozone| causing destruction at 3 to 16 times the rate of CFC-11 (a common refrigerant). As a consequence| the production of halons was prohibited on December 31| 1993 by an international treaty| the Montreal Protocol. This ban on halon production resulted in a search for replacement chemicals for firefighting and explosion protection applications. Replacements must satisfy the following three criteria in order to be successful candidates: effectiveness| cleanliness| and environmental acceptability (low ozone depletion and global warming potentials). It is also necessary that a replacement agent be as non-toxic as possible relative to possible exposures and generate minimal toxic and corrosive decomposition products during the suppression event. Herein| the toxicological aspects of halon replacements are discussed. The specific toxic endpoints of concern for halocarbon candidates| as well as the kinds of toxicity testing required for halon replacements| will be addressed. The paper will also provide a summary of the toxicological properties for the most promising near term halon replacements. Associated decomposition product formation will be briefly discussed. 2588,1995,2,4,Trees differ from crops and from each other in their responses to increases in CO2 concentration,Length of exposure| degree of maturity and type of tissue all affect the results obtained in response to elevated CO2 treatment of trees. Seedlings are most responsive and| in many cases| the first few weeks or months of exposure may set the pattern for future growth. Measurements of leaf photosynthesis and respiration are not good predictors for incorporation of carbon into tissue. Seasonal changes in non-structural carbohydrates| emissions of isoprenes from leaves and exudation from roots can 'waste' photosynthate. However| these are difficult or impossible to quantify. Currently| the only generalization that can be made is that growth will be accelerated but the magnitude of this depends on tissue type| nutrition and environmental conditions. The implications of this for a future elevated atmospheric CO2 world are complex. Interactions and competition between species should be incorporated into long-term studies. These studies must| themselves| be incorporated into appropriate models which take into account regional soils and climates for use in prediction of the effects of global climate change on trees and forests. 4466,1995,2,4,Trends of southern African sea level: Statistical analysis and interpretation,Records of monthly mean sea level from tide-gauge sites along the coast of Namibia and South Africa are examined for evidence of long-term trends. Four records (Luderitz| Port Nolloth| Simonstown and Mossel Bay) approach 30 years in duration. An exploratory statistical analysis revealed the presence of high frequency fluctuations| a distinct seasonal signal and a slowly varying interannual structure. The serial correlation suggested the use of Box-Jenkins models to separate out the various contributions and enabled statistical estimates of underlying trends in sea level with realistic error estimates to be made. A linear trend at Port Nolloth was significantly different from zero| and its consistency with the trend from the two other West Coast sites led to the conclusion that| over the past 30 pears| sea level has been rising on the west coast of Namibia and South Africa at a rate estimated at 0|12 +/- 0|04 cm . year(-1). By contrast there was no consistent upward trend at Mossel Bay on the South Coast. These estimates agree with recent published estimates of a global rate of rise in sea level| tempered by the movement of the land surface relative to the ocean to compensate for ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment. Consequently estimates of future rise in sea level attributable to global warming can be extrapolated to the coasts of Namibia and South Africa. 2581,1995,4,4,TROPICAL INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN A GLOBAL COUPLED GCM - SENSITIVITY TO MEAN CLIMATE STATE,A global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice general circulation model is used to study interannual. variability in the Tropics. Flux correction is used to control the mean climate of the coupled system| and in one configuration of the coupled model| interannual variability in the tropical Pacific is dominated by westward moving anomalies. Through a series of experiments in which the equatorial ocean wave speeds and ocean-atmosphere coupling strength are varied| it is demonstrated that these westward moving disturbances are probably some manifestation of what Neelin describes as an ''SST mode.'' By modifying the flux correction procedure| the mean climate of the coupled model can be changed. A fairly modest change in the mean climate is all that is required to excite eastward moving anomalies in place of the westward moving SST modes found previously. The apparent sensitivity of the nature of tropical interannual variability to the mean climate state in a coupled general circulation model such as that used here suggests that caution is advisable if we try to use such models to answer questions relating to changes in ENSO-like variability associated with global climate change. 4302,1995,4,2,Tropical seasonal forests in monsoon Asia: With emphasis on continental southeast Asia,This paper is intended to provide a brief review of the tropical seasonal forest| one type of the tropical moist forests in monsoon Asia. It will also focus on and summarise issues of current concern in relation to their depletion and global environmental issues. Tropical moist forests occur in the rainy tropical and monsoon tropical climate types. The tropical moist evergreen forest or the tropical rain forest| which account for two-thirds of the tropical moist forests are rich in biodiversity and contain valuable tropical hardwood. The tropical moist deciduous forest or the tropical seasonal forest which lie along the fringes of tropical rain forest| are less complex than the tropical rain forest and have more distinct wet and dry periods. Broadleaved deciduous trees of the genera Tectona| Shorea| and Dipterocarpus are predominantly in this forest type. Currently estimates have found that more than 17 million hectares of forest mainly tropical moist forests are being lost each year. There is a widespread recognition that agriculture and the burning of tropical moist forests contribute to global warming but to a much lesser extent than the combustion of fossil fuels and industrial activities in the developed world. 4297,1995,4,3,Twentieth-century variability in snow-cover conditions and approaches to detecting and monitoring changes: Status and prospects,The extent| and variability of seasonal snow cover are important parameters in the climate system. Changes in snow cover may provide an indicator of global climatic trends and are of considerable practical significance. The question of the most suitable indices of changes in snow cover conditions| in terms of their use for change detection and for monitoring applications| is discussed. The use of passive microwave-derived estimates of snow cover extent and water equivalent for continental and regional-scale mapping is illustrated. Problems in interpreting the microwave signatures| as well as difficulties in comparing such data to ground observations| are also noted. Up to now analyses have focused primarily on trends in Northern Hemisphere snow extent based on monthly averages using the NOAA weekly snow charts 1972-present| or on station data spanning 50-100 years. However| the latter are generally less readily available| or accessible. An overview is provided of current information on recent hemispheric trends and| for the former USSR| the relationship of changes in snow depth| to variations in temperature and precipitation since the late nineteenth century are described| based on newly available station records. Interpretation of these changes and comparisons with other records are presented. Model projections of changes in snow cover conditions and associated snowmelt runoff that may occur as a result of greenhouse gas-induced warming are discussed for several mountain regions. Long-term station records of snow depth variability provided a valuable context within which such modeling results can be examined. 2609,1995,3,3,US country studies program: An example of bilateral assistance to developing countries on climate change,Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) developing and transition countries are eventually required to report greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventories and response (mitigation) options. The United States (US) and other donors are providing financial and technical support for climate change country studies to help meet their needs under the UNFCCC The US Country Studies Program (US CSP) was originally announced by President Bush at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Brazil in 1992. The Program is currently assisting 56 country studies to address climate change. There are strong components of ocean and coastal assessment| adaptation and management in 41 of the 56 studies in the US CSP. All studies in the Program are implemented under respective bilateral cooperative agreements. Technical assistance for conducting GHG inventory| climate change impact vulnerability studies| and adaptation and mitigation assessments includes training of analysts| sharing of contemporary tools and assessment techniques| implementation of information-sharing workshops| and an exchange program for analysts. Emphases have been put on strengthening of human and institutional capacity to cope with global climate change issues| hence providing developing and transition countries with a sustained basis for meeting the goals of the UNFCCC. 4389,1995,4,4,VARIATIONS AND TRENDS IN ANNUAL MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES IN TURKEY WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATIC VARIABILITY,The purpose of this study is to investigate the variations and trends in the long-term annual mean air temperatures by using graphical and statistical time-series methods. The study covers a 63-year period starting from 1930 and uses temperature records from 85 climate stations. First| spatial distributions of the annual mean temperatures and coefficients of variation are studied in order to show normal conditions of the long-term annual mean temperatures. Then variations and trends observed in the annual mean temperatures are investigated using temperature data from 71 climate stations and regional mean series. Various non-parametric tests are used to detect abrupt changes and trends in the long-term mean temperatures of both geographical regions within Turkey and individual stations. The analyses indicate some noticeable variations and significant trends in the long-term annual mean temperatures. Among the geographical regions| only Eastern Anatolia appears to show similar behaviour to the global warming trends| except in the last 5 years. All the coastal regions| however| are characterized by cooling trends in the last two decades. Considering the results of the statistical tests applied to the 71 individual stations data| it could be concluded that annual mean temperatures are generally dominated by a cooling tendency in Turkey. The coldest years of the temperature records of the majority of the stations were 1933 and 1992| respectively. 2552,1995,2,4,Water chemistry and periphyton in an alpine wetland,Remote high elevation sites are thought to be good sites to monitor global change and anthropogenic effects on ecosystems. This study was conducted during 1987-1990 in a high elevation wetland (3593 m) located in the Green Lakes Valley| Front Range| Colorado (USA). Salix spp. was the dominant riparian species in this 2 ha. wetland. Small shallow pools (<0.5 m depth) constituted a water area of 236 m(3). The major source of water during the study period was snowmelt. The wetland had a well defined outlet and inlet| although an undetermined amount of water entered as groundwater from the snow patch above. Outlet discharge was 424-460 m(3) during the month of July and declined thereafter as water input from the snowpatch declined. Inlet discharge was 67% of outlet discharge. Water temperatures in the outlet were always less than 6.8 degrees C| pH 6.0-6.3| and mean conductivity 30.8 mu S cm(-1). Both NO3- and SO4-2 were higher in the inlet than in the outlet. Dominant cations in the inlet and outlet waters 4 were Ca+2 much greater than Mg+2 > K- > Na-; dominant anions were SO4-2 much greater than HCO3- > NO3- much greater than Cl-. Nutrient limitation 4 by P was demonstrated once using nutrient diffusing substrata. No limitation could be shown for NO3-| HCO3-| or Fe+EDTA. Slow colonization rates of periphyton on tiles were attributed to low temperatures and/or ultraviolet radiation. However| interannual differences in biomass on tiles were as much as 300% after 35 days. A minimum of 16-54 samples would be needed to detect a significant interannual change in biomass on tiles after 35 days assuming that the extreme case for periphyton patchiness. Global climate change is likely to affect discharge and water temperature in this wetland which will have direct and indirect affects on population dynamics and ecosystem function. 4476,1995,2,4,WATER-QUALITY MANAGEMENT - CAN WE IMPROVE INTEGRATION TO FACE FUTURE-PROBLEMS,Water (and its deteriorating quality) may be the most severe stress on the exponentially growing human population in the next century. Problems are becoming increasingly complex and diverse and require more and more specific knowledge| and efficient integration across various disciplines| sectors| countries| and societies. The major challenge addressed is whether we are prepared to realize the desired integration and to resolve the large amount of existing gaps and barriers. The paper analyzes major past and desired future trends in water quality management. A number of issues are selected such as the identification| occurrence| and perception of various problems (e.g. eutrophication| acidification| global warming)| pollution control types| wastewater treatment| modeling and monitoring| planning and environmental impact assessment| legislation and institutions| the notion of sustainable development| and the role of science and engineering. The past two decades showed tremendous developments in water quality management. in spite of these| the focus of the present discussion lies mostly on pitfalls to disseminate lessons and questions which are crucial to likely future problems and desired improvements. 4347,1995,2,3,WATER-VAPOR FEEDBACK OVER THE ARCTIC-OCEAN,Previous studies of the clear sky greenhouse effect and water vapor feedback have focused on subpolar regions. In view of modeled amplification of greenhouse warming in the Arctic we investigate the humidity characteristics| clear sky greenhouse effect and water vapor feedback in the Arctic by using 10 years of radiosonde data obtained from the Russian drifting ice island stations along with a radiative transfer model. By taking advantage of the natural variability associated with seasonal and interannual variations| we can infer the water vapor feedback from the data. Results of this study indicate that water vapor feedback over the Arctic Ocean is substantially more complex than in other regions because of the relative lack of convective coupling between the surface and the atmosphere and the different thermodynamic and radiative environment in the Arctic. In particular| the effect of water vapor on the net flux of radiation is complicated by low temperatures| low amounts of water vapor| and the presence of temperature and humidity inversions. During winter a ''hyper'' water vapor feedback arises from the control of ice saturation on the lower tropospheric humidity and a water vapor ''window'' in the rotation band at low atmospheric humidities. Implications for global warming are discussed. 2561,1995,4,4,WIMOVAC - A SOFTWARE PACKAGE FOR MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF PLANT LEAF AND CANOPY PHOTOSYNTHESIS,The ability to predict net carbon exchange and production of vegetation in response to predicted atmospheric and climate change is critical to assessing the potential impacts of these changes. Mathematical models provide an important tool in the study of whole plant| canopy and ecosystem responses to global environmental change. Because this requires prediction beyond experience| mechanistic rather than empirical models are needed. The uniformity and strong understanding of the photosynthetic process| which is the primary point of response of plant production to global atmospheric change| provides a basis for such an approach. Existing modelling systems have been developed primarily for expert modellers and have not been easily accessible to experimentalists| managers and students. Here we describe a modular modelling system operating within Winnows to provide this access. WIMOVAC (Windows Intuitive Model of Vegetation response to Atmosphere and Climate Change) is designed to facilitate the modelling of various aspects of plant photosynthesis with particular emphasis on the effects of global climate change. WIMOVAC has been designed to run on IBM PC-compatible computers running Microsoft Windows. The package allows the sophisticated control of the simulation processes for photosynthesis through a standardized Windows user interface and provides automatically formatted results as either tabulated data or as a range of customizable graphs. WIMOVAC has been written in Microsoft Visual Basic| to facilitate the rapid development of user-friendly modules within the familiar Windows framework| while allowing a structured development. The highly interactive nature of controls adopted by WIMOVAC makes it suitable for research| management and educational purposes. 4351,1995,3,4,ZERO ODP| ZERO GWP| HALOGEN-FREE| AND LOW K-FACTOR AZEOTROPES AS BLOWING AGENTS FOR ISOCYANATE-BASED FOAMS,Due to the ozone depletion potential (ODP) problem of CFCs and HCFCs| a number of alternative physical blowing agents for isocyanate-based foams are being investigated. Among them| two representative candidates are HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons) and halogen-free| aliphatic hydrocarbons in which major hydrocarbons are n-pentane and cyclopentane. Another accompanying problem of CFCs and HCFCs is global warming potential (GWP). This paper describes azeotropic blowing agents (hereinafter referred to as AZBs [32|33]) having no halogens. The AZBs employed in this study comprise a C-5-C-7 hydrocarbon and a compound selected from the group consisting of C-2-C-4 carboxylic acid esters| C-3-C-4 ketones| and C-4 ethers. These halogen-free azeotropes have advantages of zero ODP| zero GWP| and lower K-factor. The AZBs have the following advantages over HFCs and hydrocarbons: (a) they have a minimum boiling point and thus give more efficient blowing action than that of the respective individual components| resulting in lower density foams; (b) the AZBs-blown foams have lower K-factor than that of the foams blown with the respective individual blowing agents; (c) the adequate polarity of the AZBs exhibits better compatibility with foaming ingredients and results in finer celled foams than by the use of a single hydrocarbon blowing agent| e.g.| cyclopentane; (d) due to the similarity of boiling points and polarity of the AZBs with those of CFC-11| the AZBs are a direct replacement for CFC-11 without any change of CFC-11-based formulations and without the use of special raw materials; (e) in general| the foam density is roughly proportional to the number of moles of blowing agent; the AZBs have lower molecular weights than CFC-11 and therefore| smaller amounts can be used. Also their costs are far less than that of CFCs or HCFCs; (f) the AZBs have zero ODP| zero GWP| and are halogen-free; therefore| there are no environmental problems. A number of the AZBs can be used as blowing agents| for example a blend of n-pentane/methyl formate at a weight ratio of 47/53. The blend has a boiling point of 21.8 degrees C| which is almost equal to that of CFC-11. The AZBs can be used for various isocyanate-based foams| e.g.| flexible and rigid methane foams| modified isocyanurate foams| urea foams| flexible and rigid integral skin foams. 4418,1995,3,4,ZERO-ODP RIGID INSULATION FOAMS PREPARED WITH HFAS,The industry is continuously being challenged by regulatory agencies to find alternatives to CFCs (chlorofluoro-carbons) for use in all applications. Two solutions investigated were to replace CFCs with HCFCs Olydrochloro-fluorocarbons or PFAs (perfiuoroalkanes). However| the contribution of HCFCs to the depletion of the ozone layer has been determined to be too high for them to be viewed as anything but an intermediate solution. PFAs have been getting attention for their high halogen global warming potential (HGWP) due to their long atmospheric lifetime and| thus| seem unlikely even as additives. At this time| it appears that both HCFCs and PFAs have a finite usage period in our industry. In our search for alternatives| we have discovered that HFAs (hydrofluoroalkanes or partially fluorinated alkanes) make fine| closed cell foams. As a result of this| HFA-blown rigid foams at 2.0 pcf density or lower have low initial k-factors (0.13 Btu in./hr ft(2) degrees F). Aged k-factors are excellent because of the relatively slow cell gas diffusion of HFAs. These insulation values are similar to or better than those of foams made with HCFCs and PFAs! The advantage to this technology is that HFAs have zero-ozone depletion potential (ODP) and relatively low HGWP| making HFAs viable long-term alternatives. Processing of the alternatives evaluated is similar to HCFC-22 technology| because the HFAs used in this investigation are gases at room temperature and pressure. The HFAs examined in this study were HFA-32| 134a| 125| and 227. These HFAs all show the same characteristics of low solubility| low blowing efficiency| and higher working vapor pressures; therefore| emulsion technology was used (as with PFAs). Good quality foams were produced without utilizing special compatibilizers. 2501,1996,2,3,A fuzzy rule-based approach to drought assessment,A methodology for predicting regional droughts from atmospheric pressure patterns is presented. Drought characteristics are strongly related to general circulation patterns (CP). CPs are determined from daily atmospheric pressure data. The link between large-scale CPs and regional scale droughts is modeled using a fuzzy rule-based approach. A fuzzy rule-based model operates on an ''if'' --> ''then'' principle| where ''if'' corresponds to a vector of fuzzy inputs and ''then'' corresponds to some fuzzy consequences. The rules are derived from a so-called training set which includes a daily time series of CP classes and a corresponding monthly sequence of Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI). Split sampling of historical data available for a 35-year time period is used to derive and then to validate the rules. Then| these fuzzy rules may be applied to predict droughts in terms of atmospheric circulation patterns. The occurrence and persistence of CPs are expected to vary under global climate change. Thus the approach may also be useful in estimating the potential impact of climatic change (e.g.| 2 x CO2 scenario) on droughts. The methodology is illustrated using drought index data from New Mexico and atmospheric pressure data over the western United States. 4145,1996,2,4,A mechanistic model for submerged aquatic macrophyte photosynthesis: Hydrilla in ambient and elevated CO2,There are significant knowledge gaps about the responses of submerged aquatic macrophytes to CO2 enrichment and global warming. A mechanistic steady-state photosynthesis model for submerged aquatic macrophytes was developed to provide an analysis tool to investigate the responses of plant photosynthesis to CO2| temperature and light. The model was based upon a general simplified scheme for inorganic carbon assimilation of submerged aquatic macrophytes which integrated the knowledge about aquatic plant photosynthesis from previous research| mainly on Hydrilla. The model includes: (1) diffusion and/or active transfer of inorganic carbon (CO2 and/or HCO3-) in the bathing medium into the leaf mesophyll and cytosol; (2) diffusion and/or 'pumping' of CO2 through the PEPcase-related C-4 pathway into the chloroplast; (3) inter-conversions between CO2 and HCO3- inside cells; (4) photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle (PCR) in the chloroplast. In the model| the PCR processes in the chloroplast were described using the widely accepted C-3 photosynthesis model. The activity of the C-4 cycle was related to environmental CO2 'stress'. In this way| the model can simulate the shift between C-3-like and C-4-like photosynthesis under different environmental conditions. The model was validated using gas exchange data from Hydrilla plants grown in ambient and elevated CO2. The model predicted quite well photosynthetic responses to incident PAR| temperature and ambient CO2 for both ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 treatments. Model predictions agreed well with measured Hydrilla gas exchange data. The simulated and measured CO compensation points of Hydrilla leaf photosynthesis were about 100 ppm. The light compensation point of photosynthesis was about 25 mu mol m(-2)s(-1) (PAR)| and photosynthesis rate was saturated at about 100 mu mol m(-2)s(-1) (PAR). Higher pH slightly increased photosynthesis rates at ambient CO2 (similar to 350 ppm). There was no significant acclimation of Hydrilla photosynthesis to elevated CO2 within the experimental period. Simulated CO2 compensation point decreased with increasing activity of C-4-cycle processes. 4147,1996,2,4,A method for monitoring long-term population trends: An example using rare arctic-alpine plants,Populations of arctic-alpine plants at the southern periphery of their range should respond rapidly to projected global warming. We established a study to monitor the density and reproductive effort of six such species in tundra of Glacier National Park| Montana to help project the fate of these species in the center of their range. For many species| detecting long-term population trends is confounded by short-term variation. Our study design employs temporal resampling of permanent plots on multiple sites and a repeated-measures model that accommodates the effects of high frequency variation and allows assessment of the significance of long-term trends. Statistical analysis compares site-specific estimates of annual mean density between two time periods and uses between-plot| within-site| within-year variation to estimate error. Power calculations using data from the 3-yr baseline period indicate that measurements of fecundity will be less sensitive for detecting long-term trends than measurements of plant density. Furthermore| our results suggest that perennial species of closed-turf communities may be better bioassays of long-term change than annuals or species of open| ephemeral microsites. 4264,1996,3,4,A multinational model for CO2 reduction - Defining boundaries of future CO2 emissions in nine countries,A need to make substantial future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would require major changes in national energy systems| Nine industrialized countries have explored the technical boundaries of CO2 emission restrictions during the next 40 to 50 years using comparable scenario assumptions and a standard model| MARKAL| Quantitative results for the countries are shown side by side in a set of energy maps that compare the least-cost evolution of the national energy systems by the main factors that contribute to CO2 emissions| The ability to restrict future CO2 emissions and the most cost-effective measures for doing so differ among the countries; an international agreement that would mandate substantial emission restrictions among countries by an equal percentage reduction is clearly impossible| The results are a first step toward a basis for allocating such international reductions| and the multinational process by which they were produced provides an example for further international greenhouse gas abatement costing studies. 4178,1996,3,4,A preliminary comparative study of three manure composting systems and their influence on process parameters and methane emissions,Three cattle manure composting systems - windrowing| forced aeration with temperature feedback control and simple minimal intervention (manure stacks - ''passive composting'') were compared with respect to specifically selected and operationally important process parameters including dry matter| moisture and volatile solids losses| volume reduction and bulk density changes. The windrowing method proved to be the most effective with respect to the above parameters. Preliminary investigations of methane from the three systems during processing showed that the minimal intervention method produced high levels of methane (> 4 percent) in the waste matrix. The intervention methods| of windrowing or forced aeration| drastically reduced methane output. The importance of animal manures in global agriculture| with reference to methane emissions and global warming| is briefly reviewed. The widespread reliance of manure disposal by the use of simple stacks|sometimes erroneously elevated to a processing status by use of the term ''passive composting''| is questioned on ecological and environmental grounds. The data from this preliminary study shows the enormous impact that simple windrowing techniques can achieve in terms of organic waste conversion and product quality| concomittant with ecologically acceptable treatment routes. 2471,1996,2,3,A simplified climate model with combined atmospheric-hydrological processes,Global climate change can be reproduced in detail by using three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs). However| such complex models require super-computers and extensive hours of computational time for a single attempt at reproducing long term climate change. An alternative approach is to make simplifying assumptions that retain the essential physics for the desired simulation. Energy balance and radiative-convective models are examples of such models. The model in this study follows the simplified approach using physics-based climate processes as well as interactions between atmospheric and hydrological processes. The vertically and latitudinally averaged mean temperature and mean water vapour content between 30 degrees N-50 degrees N latitudes are considered as atmospheric state variables while soil and sea temperatures and water storage amount are considered for describing the behaviour of the hydrological system. Temperatures in both the atmosphere and ground are calculated by a thermal energy equation that considers the physically-based processes of shortwave radiation| longwave radiation| sensible heat flux| and latent heat flux. precipitation and evaporation processes transport moisture between the atmosphere and ground. In this study| the radiation parameterization of the simplified climate model is tested in the investigation of the various effects of global warming due to doubling and quadrupling of CO2. Changes of temperature| soil water content| evaporation rate and precipitation rate are investigated by numerical experiments. The simplified climate model provides acceptable simulation of climate change and holds promise for practical investigations such as the interactions of physical processes in the evolution of drought phenomena. 4116,1996,4,4,A statistical method for separating urban effect trends from observed temperature data and its application to Japanese temperature records,Separating the impact of urbanization (urban effect temperature trends) from observational data at urban monitoring sites is an important problem in the detection of global warming impacts. A statistical method using principal component analysis of the temperature data in an area was developed to separate the urban effect temperature trend from the observed temperature record at urban stations; including those without nearby rural reference stations. After the mathematical description of the method| an example of the analysis for model data on which some trends are superimposed (given) at any stations was shown for an explanation of the method. This example not only clarified the performance (impact| weight) of the superimposed trend in the trend for each principal component score (Z-score) but also showed how all the superimposed trends were separated from the model data by this method. This method was applied to monthly mean temperature data for the past 73 years (1920-1992) from 51 meteorological stations in Japan| and the urban effect temperature trend at each station was separated from the observed temperature trend. As a result of the analysis| it was clarified that in Japan the maximum urban effect temperature trends at stations with a population of over 100 thousand in 1993 were 1.0-2.5 degrees C/100 years| which were almost the same as those in the United States and China. The urban effect temperature trends in big cities are larger in the cold season than in the warm season| being maximum in winter or autumn and minimum in summer. After removing the urban effect temperature trend| the annual mean temperature trends at stations in Japan over the period analyzed ranged from 0.5 degrees C/100 years in northern Japan to 1.1 degrees C/100 years in western Japan with the areal mean for Japan of 0.8 degrees C/100 years. The positive trends are most notable in winter and spring (December to May)| and show areal mean values of 1.0-1.6 degrees C/100 years with the maximum in March. On the other hand| they are not marked in summer and autumn. In particular| in the northern part of Japan| negative trends appear from July to November. The area with negative trends below -1.0 degrees C/100 years extends over most of the northeastern half of Japan in July| but does not reach the southern part of Japan| which has a slight positive trend. As a result of these regional differences in temperature trends| the north-south temperature gradient increases in summer and autumn with the maximum trend difference of 2.0 degrees C/100 years in July and October. 4204,1996,4,3,A welfare-based index for assessing environmental effects of greenhouse-gas emissions,THE global warming potential (GWP) index(1-3) is a measure of the relative contribution of the emissions of different greenhouse gases to the radiative forcing of the atmosphere-and thus to climate change-over a given time period. But this index does not represent the effects of climate change| and therefore does not provide an adequate basis for policy decisions about emissions reductions. This inadequacy has led to the proposal of an alternative| the economic-damage index (EDI)(4-7). This index compares the effect of different greenhouse-gas emissions on global economic welfare. Here we use a simple climate model to calculate the EDIs for a range of climate-change/greenhouse-gas emission scenarios| and compare the values to the corresponding GWPs. Although the values of these indices are| at this stage| broadly similar in both magnitude and uncertainty| the prospects of reducing these uncertainties by future research are better for the EDI. 4190,1996,4,4,Accelerating ground warming in the Canadian Prairie Provinces: Is it a result of global warming?,The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada| most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces| show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 g to 3.5 K range (average = 2.2+/-0.7 K| for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantial in the last four decades if the ''ramp'' function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the ''step function'' model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing| forest fires| etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude delineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern margin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however| the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth. 4122,1996,2,2,Adapting to sea-level rise: Relative sea-level trends to 2100 for the United States,Global sea levels have slowly risen during this century| and that rise is expected to accelerate in the coming century due to anthropogenic global warming. A total rise of up to 1 m is possible by the year 2100 (relative to 1990). To deal with this change| coastal managers require site-specific information on relative (i.e.| local) changes in sea level to determine what might be threatened. Therefore as a first step| global sea-level rise scenarios need to be transformed into relative sea-level change scenarios which take account of local and regional factors| such as vertical land movements| in addition to global changes. Even present rates of relative sealevel rise have important long-term implications for coastal management-projecting existing trends predicts a relative sea-level rise from 1990 to 2100 of up to 0.4 m and 1.15 m for the Mid-Atlantic Region and Louisiana| respectively. Ignoring sea-level rise will lead to unwise decisions and increasing hazard with time. This article adapts the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global scenarios for sea-level rise (Warrick et at| 1996) to three relative sea-level rise scenarios for the contiguous United States. These scenarios cover the period 1990 to 2100 and provide a basis to assess possible proactive measures for sea-level rise. However| they are subject to the same uncertainties as the global scenarios as most of the sea-level rise will occur decades into the future. When considering what should be done now in response to future sea-level rise| given these large uncertainties| if is best to identify (I) low-cost| no regret responses which would maintain or enhance the choices available to tomorrow's coastal managers; and (2) sectors where reactive adaptation would have particularly high costs and where allowance for future sealevel rise can be considered a worthwhile ''insurance policy. '' Sea-level rise will impact an evolving coastal landscape which already is experiencing a range of other pressures. Therefore| to be most effective| responses to sea-level rise need to be integrated with all other planning occurring in the coastal zone. 4175,1996,3,4,Alternatives to slash-and-burn: A global imperative,Our generation has seen an upswelling of interest and concern for atmospheric pollution and for the concomitant destruction or degradation of our natural resources. High on the list of both these concerns is the rapid destruction of tropical forests and their release of greenhouse gases in the process. Much of the forest destruction is to provide lumber for building construction worldwide| and for fuelwood| but most of it is to provide land for agriculture. 4246,1996,3,4,Amazonian deforestation and global warming: Carbon stocks in vegetation replacing Brazil's Amazon forest,Carbon stocks in vegetation replacing forest in Brazilian Amazonia affect net emissions of greenhouse gases from land-use change. A Markov matrix of annual transition probabilities was constructed to estimate landscape composition in 1990 and to project future changes| assuming behavior of farmers and ranchers remains unchanged. The estimated 1990 landscape was 5.4% farmland| 44.8% productive pasture| 2.2% degraded pasture| 2.1% 'young' (1970 or later) secondary forest derived from agriculture| 28.1% 'young' secondary forest derived from pasture| and 17.4% 'old' (pre-1970) secondary forest. The landscape would eventually approach an equilibrium of 4.0% farmland| 43.8% productive pasture| 5.2% degraded pasture| 2.0% secondary forest derived from agriculture| and 44.9% secondary forest derived from pasture. An insignificant amount is regenerated 'forest' (defined as secondary forest over 100 years old). Average total biomass (dry matter| including below-ground and dead components) was 43.5 t ha(-1) in 1990 in the 410 X 10(3) km(2) deforested by that year for uses other than hydroelectric dams. At equilibrium| average biomass would be 28.5 t ha(-1) over all deforested areas (excluding dams). These biomass values are more than double those forming the basis of deforestation emission estimates currently used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Although higher replacement landscape biomass decreases net emissions from deforestation| these estimates still imply large net releases. 2506,1996,3,3,An inventory of greenhouse gas emissions in Bangladesh: Initial results,In this paper| we present an inventory of greenhouse gas sources and sinks in Bangladesh for the year 1990. Because CO2 is believed to be the principal contributor to global climate change worldwide| and energy use is the largest source of CO2 emissions| much effort was made to analyze the Bangladesh energy system. Carbon emissions and carbon uptake in forests were also accounted for. Emissions of methane from agriculture| livestock| and urban landfill waste were also included in the inventory. In 1990| energy production using fossil fuels accounted for 15.5 Tg of CO2 emissions. Carbon emissions resulting from forestry were also calculated. It was found that about 5.46 Tg of carbon was removed/consumed from the forest sources in 1990. On the other hand| about 12.32 Tg of carbon was taken up in forests. Based on these numbers| which exclude bamboo| the forests of Bangladesh acted as a net sink for approximately 6.86 Tg of carbon in 1990. Methane emissions in 1990 from flooded rice cultivation ranged between 257 and 622 Gg| with a median of 439 Gg CH4. Methane emissions from the livestock sector were about 453 Gg CH4. About 5.92 Gg CH4 are emitted due to venting| flaring| and transmission and distribution of natural gas. Methane emissions from landfilled wastes in the major urban areas of Bangladesh contributed approximately 74 Gg CH4. 2537,1996,3,3,An inventory-based procedure to estimate economic costs of forest management on a regional scale to conserve and sequester atmospheric carbon,Estimation of the costs of managing forests to conserve and sequester atmospheric carbon is necessary to define the role of forests to mitigate the onset of projected global climate change. The role of forests as both carbon pools and an element in the flux of atmospheric carbon dictate new requirements in estimating the costs of forest management to mitigate climate change. These requirements include recognition of the inventory as a capital stock in the estimation of the costs; the need to allow the integration of biological| social and economic considerations across nations and regions; and the need to facilitate consideration of the distributional impacts of forest policy alternatives. An inventory-based procedure is presented to estimate forest management costs based on recognition of the opportunity costs of holding forest inventories. To demonstrate this procedure| the costs of four policy scenarios projected in the carbon budget of the United States are examined. Based on the demonstration| the inventory-based procedure is shown to meet the requirements for estimating forest management costs to conserve and sequester atmospheric carbon on a regional scale. The demonstration also illustrates the potential of the procedure to provide insights into differences in costs associated with management of forest ecosystems among geographic regions and forest policies. 4257,1996,3,4,An overview of recent technical developments in polyurethanes .1. General introduction and substitutes for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and their applications,An overview of recent technological developments in polyurethanes is presented. Substitutes for CFCs in foams are reviewed in light of environmental considerations (ODP - ozone depletion potential and GWP - global warming potential). New developments in raw materials for the polyurethane industry are cited. 4240,1996,2,4,Appearance in Hungary of Cephalosporium maydis Samra| Sabet and Hingorani| causing late milt disease in maize,The microscopic fungus Cephalosporium maydis Samra| Sabet and Hingorani| which causes late wilt disease in maize| has been isolated for the first time in Hungary. According to the literature the pathogen is only known at present to cause economic damage in Egypt and India The fungus is seedborne| so it can be assumed that it reached Hungary through the import of infected propagation stock It causes a disease of the vascular bundles| the first symptoms of which can be observed in maize at tasselling. Diseased plants have retarded development| then wilt and finally. dry up. The vascular bundles become discoloured and cavities are formed in the pith. It is highly probable that global warming and the dry weather experienced in early summer over the last decade or so have played a decisive role in the appearance and activity of the pathogen in Hungary. If the climate continues to warm up| the significance of this disease could increase under Hungarian conditions| so it is important to carry out further studies both on the pathogen itself and on the resistance of cultivated hybrids and lines| and to elaborate effective methods of chemical control. 4199,1996,4,3,Assessment of the costs of global warming on a full fuel cycle basis,This paper reports on external cost assessments of the coal and natural gas to electricity fuel cycles conducted within the ExternE Project of the European Commission. This project leads the development of the impact pathway| or damage function approach for analysis of the environmental and social impacts of energy use. The methodology allows highly detailed and spatially disaggregated analysis of pollutant damage| following a logical progression from characterisation of emissions| through modelling of pollutant dispersion and atmospheric lifetime| to determination of impacts using appropriate dose-response functions| and associated economic costs. The project team is multi-disciplinary and the various models used have been the subject of international review. Assessment of the effects of climate change is at a less advanced state than analysis of| for example| air pollution effects on health| materials and crops| or occupational health impacts. However| preliminary results are available based on a review of damage estimates from the available literature| and a more detailed methodology is being developed. Both are described in this paper| together with a review of the major uncertainties. 4202,1996,4,4,Atmospheric fate and greenhouse warming potentials of HFC 236fa and HFC 236ea,The rate coefficient for the reaction OH + CF3CH2CF3 (1|1|1|3|3|3-hexafluoropropane| HFC236fa) was measured between 269 and 413 K using the pulsed photolysis-laser: induced fluorescence technique to be k(1) = (1.60 +/- 0.40) x 10(-12) exp (-(2450 +/- 150)/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The rate Coefficient| k(2b)| for the destruction of CF3CH2CF3 via reaction with O(D-1) was measured to be (4.5 +/- 1.9) x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) using the laser photolysis-resonance fluorescence technique. From these data| along with previously published rate coefficients for OH reaction with HFC236ea| the atmospheric lifetimes of HFC238fa and HFC236ea were calculated to be 210 and 8.1 years| respectively. The room temperature infrared absorption cross sections for these two compounds were measured over the range 650 to 1350 cm(-1) The global warming potentials (GWPs) of HFC236fa and HFC236ea| respectively| were calculated to be 5610 and 2200 for a 20-year horizon and 5160 and 220 for a 500-year horizon. 4288,1996,3,4,Barriers to energy efficiency in vehicle design,This paper reviews the factors undermining a stabilization in vehicular emissions of CO2 in line with commitments made at the Rio Conference| 1992. Despite effective technologies to reduce such emissions| resistance to more fuel-efficient cars from manufacturers and consumers combined with increased usage means that no progress has been made as yet. 4114,1996,4,4,Biodiversity and industry ecosystem management,The term biodiversity describes the array of interacting| genetically distinct populations and species in a region| the communities they comprise| and the variety oi ecosystems of which they are functioning parts. Ecosystem health| a closely related concept| is described in terms of a process identifying biological indicators| end points| and values. The decline of populations or species| an accelerating trend worldwide| can lead to simplification of ecosystem processes| thus threatening the stability and sustainability of ecosystem services directly relevant to human welfare in the chain of economic and ecological relationships. The challenge of addressing issues of such enormous scope and complexity has highlighted the limitations of ecology-as-science. Additionally biosphere-scale conflicts seem to lie beyond the scope of conventional economics| leading to differences of opinion about the commodity Value oi biodiversity and of the services that intact ecosystems provide. In the face of these uncertainties| many scientists and economists have adopted principles that clearly assign burdens of proof to those who would promote the loss of biodiversity and that also establish ''near-trump'' (preeminent) status for ecological integrity. Electric utility facilities and operations impact biodiversity whenever construction| operation| or maintenance of generation| delivery| and support facilities alters landscapes and habitats and thereby impacts species. Although industry is accustomed to dealing with broad environmental concerns (such as global warming or acid rain)| the biodiversity issue invokes hemisphere-wide| regional| local| and site-specific concerns all at the same time. Industry can proactively address these issues of scope and scale in two main ways: first| by aligning strategically with the broad research agenda put forth by informed scientists and institutions; and second| by supporting focused management processes whose results will contribute incrementally to the broader agenda of rebuilding or maintaining biodiversity. 4245,1996,2,4,Breeding plans in case of global warming,Many cultivated crop plants of temperate and cool temperate zones have during their domestication been transferred far from their original habitats and been distributed over a wide range of climates. In general crop plants seem to possess potential to climatic adaptation. Processes in the past have taken hundreds or thousands of years and over large number of generations. The concern on the velocity of the expected global warming and of subsequent changes in other factors justifies planning of breeding for global warming. Perennial plants| forest trees in particular are more at the focal point than annual plants. Most agricultural annuals may be replaced any year with another cultivar or species better adapted to contemporary circumstances. Trees need tens of years to reach commercial dimensions or fructiferous age. Capriciousness is the main problem of climate change. Large variation of temperature| precipitation among years actually masks the gradual change of average values. The amplitude of variation among years exceeds the predicted average change. Thus| plasticity of individuals besides within population variation in adaptive traits is a corner stone of breeding plans. From the ecological point of view two factors are significant: 1. mild winters may interfere dormancy release and frost tolerance| and also alter host-parasite relationships. 2. The timing of thermal seasons will change in relation to photoperiod. This phenomenon is most prominent in the far north| where the relative warming is largest and the photoperiodic pattern steepest. Even though perennial plants display potential of acclimatization| selection and breeding are eligible measures to improve productivity. As long as the magnitude and velocity of the global warming remain uncertain| it is impossible to set specified aims to breeding. The only reasonable method is to run parallelly several lines with differing patterns of adaptive traits. Multiple population breeding system (MPBS) seems to be tailored to this purpose. 4286,1996,2,4,C-14 dating and soil organic matter dynamics in arctic and subarctic ecosystems,The carbon content| pH and C-14 concentration of humic acids were determined for three soil series of Arctic and Subarctic ecosystems. The measured C-14 ages were interpreted in the light of an equilibrium model of humus formation and of mineralization processes in recent soils| and the coefficient of renovation| K-r| was calculated for humic acids. The comparison of K-r for series formed under different climatic conditions suggested that global warming could accelerate decomposition of soil organic matter and possibly increase productivity of ecosystems of the Arctic region. 4184,1996,3,2,Carbon dioxide production from co-generation for enhanced oil recovery: An economic evaluation,There is a great interest| especially in Western Canada| to capture carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel fired power plants and utilize it as a flooding agent for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) processes. This concept provides two important benefits: (i) captured CO2 can be utilized as a flooding agent which would generate revenue from incremental oil production| and (ii) CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are reduced| helping to alleviate global warming. In the past few years| a number of feasibility studies and pilot projects on CO2 extraction from power plants have been performed. However| these results have shown that even though it is technically feasible to extract CO2 from power plants| the EOR application cost is high in the current crude petroleum market. A major reason for the high cost is that the CO2 extracting process requires a substantial amount of steam. This paper will demonstrate how cogeneration concepts would help to reduce CO2 production costs by utilizing low-pressure steams and waste heats from various sections of the power generation processes. The economics are based on the installation of a power generation plant and CO2 recovery facility in an existing oil producing facility. 4123,1996,3,4,Carbon dioxide production from coal-fired power plants for enhanced oil recovery: A feasibility study in Western Canada,In order to sustain the current production capacity of conventional oil in Western Canada| enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technologies must be increasingly applied. Among these| CO2 flooding is a highly attractive alternative. A large amount of CO2 is being produced by coal-fired power plants in this region. The CO2 is currently discharged into the atmosphere and could be a major contributor to the greenhouse effect| which may lead to global warming. Thus| the concept of capturing CO2 and utilizing it as a flooding agent in EOR processes is currently generating much interest among oil| utility and coal companies. We demonstrate how cogeneration concepts| together with process-optimization strategies| help to reduce the CO2-production cost by utilizing low-pressure steam and waste heat from various sections of the power-generation process. Based on these concepts and strategies| results from this study show that the recovery cost of CO2 from a coal-fired power plant may range between $0.50 and 2.00/mscf. If the cost is approximately $1.25/mscf| the production cost of a barrel of incremental oil would be less than $18. Therefore| even at today's modest oil prices| there is room for profit to be made operating a CO2 flood with flue-gas-extracted CO2. The technical and economical feasibility of the concepts are evaluated and the practical implications for the Saskatchewan resources are discussed. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. 2490,1996,2,4,Carbon mobilization from the forest floor under red spruce in the northeastern USA,Global climate change may alter soil temperature and moisture conditions| increasing the need to understand how these basic factors affect C dynamics. This is particularly important in boreal forests| which often have large C pools in the forest floor and mineral horizons. We examined the effects of temperature and precipitation frequency on C dynamics in forest floor horizons from eight red spruce sites in the northeastern U.S. using column leaching experiments. Intact and sieved forest floor samples were incubated at 3| 10 or 20 degrees C and leached either daily| once per week| or twice per week during 14 to 39 days using simulated throughfall solutions (pH 2.7 or 4.0). Leachate DOC and CO2 production were measured along with soil C and N concentrations. For intact samples| losses of C as DOC and as CO2 increased with increasing temperature| and the increase (Q(10)) was usually greater between 3 and 10 degrees C than between 10 and 20 degrees C. There was a greater response of CO2 to temperature than of DOC (e.g. Howland sieved soil Q(10)s of 1.9 and 7.2 for CO2 and 1.5 and 2.0 for DOC at 3-10 and 10-20 degrees C ranges| respectively). More frequent leaching increased steady state DOC mobilization (e.g. 145 and 58 mu g g(-1) forest floor d(-1) for daily and weekly leachings at 10 degrees C| respectively)| but not CO2 evolution (e.g. 79 and 74 mu g CO2-C g(-1) forest floor d(-1) for daily and weekly leachings at 10 degrees C| respectively). Across the eight sites DOC loss and CO2 evolution varied by factors of 3.6 and 4.0| respectively. Both CO2 evolution and DOC in leachates calculated as fluxes were correlated (r = 0.73 and 0.87 respectively| n = 8) with the C-to-N ratios of the samples (C-to-N ratios ranged from 27 to 58)| which could be explained by N limitations that triggered selective lignin degradation| differences in degree of humification of the material| or position on a west-to-east pollution gradient. Although higher temperatures and more frequent leaching increased DOC mobilization| and higher temperatures increased CO? evolution| both treatments and site to site variation illustrate the complexity of the response of forest-floor C pools to manipulations. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd 4247,1996,4,3,Carbon uptake by secondary forests in Brazilian Amazonia,Estimating the contribution of deforestation to greenhouse gas emissions requires calculations of the uptake of carbon by the vegetation that replaces the forest| as well as the emissions from burning and decay of forest biomass and from altered emissions and uptakes by the soil. The role of regeneration in offsetting emissions from deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon has sometimes been exaggerated. Unlike many other tropical areas| cattle pasture (rather than shifting cultivation) usually replaces forest in Brazilian Amazonia. Degraded cattle pastures regenerate secondary forests more slowly than do fallows in shifting cultivation systems| leading to lower uptake of carbon. The calculations presented here indicate that in 1990 the 410 X 10(3) km(2) deforested landscape was taking up 29 X 10(6) t of carbon (C) annually (0.7 t C ha(-1) year(-1)). This does not include the emissions from clearing of secondary forests| which in 1990 released an estimated 27 X 10(6) t C| almost completely offsetting the uptake from the landscape. Were the present land-use change processes to continue| carbon uptake would rise to 365 X 10(6) t annually (0.9 t C ha(-1) year(-1)) in 2090 in the 3.9 X 10(6) km(2) area that would have been deforested by that year. The 1990 rate of emissions from deforestation in the region greatly exceeded the uptake from regrowth of replacement vegetation. 4268,1996,2,2,Carbon use in root respiration as affected by elevated atmospheric O-2,The use of fossil fuel is predicted to cause an increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration| which will affect the global pattern of temperature and precipitation. It is therefore essential to incorporate effects of temperature and water supply on the carbon requirement for root respiration of plants to predict effects of elevated [CO2] on the carbon budget of natural and managed systems. There is insufficient information to support the contentention that an increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will enhance the CO2 concentration in the soil to an extent that is likely to affect root respiration. Moreover| there is no convincing evidence for a direct effect of elevated atmospheric [CO2] on the rate of root respiration per unit root mass or the fraction of carbon required for root respiration. However| there are likely to be indirect effects of elevated [CO2] on the carbon requirement of plants in natural systems. Firstly| it is very likely that the carbon requirement of root respiration relative to that fixed in photosynthesis will increase when elevated [CO2] induces a decrease in nutrient status of the plants. Although earlier papers have emphasized that elevated [CO2] favours investment of biomass in roots relative to that in leaves| these are in fact indirect effects. The increase in root weight ratio is due to the more rapid depletion of nutrients in the root environment as a consequence of enhanced growth. This will decrease the specific rate of root respiration| but increase the carbon requirement as a fraction of the carbon fixed in photosynthesis. It is likely that these effects will be minor in systems where the nutrient supply is very high| e.g| in many managed arable systems| and increase with decreasing soil fertility| i.e. in many natural systems. Secondly| a decrease in rainfall in some parts of the world may cause a shortage in water supply which favours the carbon partitioning to roots. Water stress is likely to reduce rates of root respiration per unit root mass| but enhance the fraction of total assimilates required for root respiration| due to greater allocation of biomass to roots. Increased temperatures are unlikely to affect the specific rate of root respiration in all species. Broadly generalized| the effect of temperature on biomass allocation is that the relative investment of biomass in roots is lowest at a certain optimum temperature and increases at both higher and lower temperatures. The root respiration of some species acclimates to growth temperature| so that the effect of global temperature rise is entirely accounted for by the effect of temperature on biomass allocation. The specific rate of root respiration of other species will increase with global warming. In response to global warming the carbon requirement of roots is likely to decrease in temperate regions| when temperatures are suboptimal for the roots' capacity to acquire water. Here global warming will induce a smaller biomass allocation to the roots. Conversely| the carbon requirements are more likely to increase in mediterranean environments| where temperatures are often supraoptimal and a rise in temperature will induce greater allocation of biomass to the roots. 4241,1996,2,2,Changing probabilities of daily temperature extremes in the UK related to future global warming and changes in climate variability,The impacts of 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (one from the IPCC and one from Greenpeace International) on the occurrence of extreme daily temperature events are considered at several sites in the UK. For each site| a number of probability distributions were tested for goodness-of-fit to 1961-87 observed daily maximum and minimum temperature data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov lest. The parameters of the best-fitting distributions were then perturbed to take into account climate change| both mean and variability. Probabilities of the occurrence of particular temperature threshold events were calculated for both present and future climates. Changes in climate variability were considered in 3 ways: (1) by assuming the present variance stays the same in the future; (2) by imposing standardised percent changes in variance; and (3) by imposing variance changes derived from the UK Meteorological Office high resolution GCM equilibrium climate change experiment. Results presented for 2 contrasting sites illustrate the importance of including changes in variability in climate change studies. Specific results depend on the site and threshold temperature chosen and on the distribution characteristics. However| for example| at Fortrose the 1961-87 mean maximum temperature in July is below 20 degrees C. With increases in global-mean temperature| the probability of this threshold being exceeded increases| although the rate of increase depends on the variance change being considered. The largest rate of increase in probability occurs with a 20% per degrees C increase in variance. The approach described here has been used in one component of a climate change scenario generator for the UK developed for the UK Ministry of Agriculture| Fisheries and Food. 4230,1996,2,4,Climate change impacts on US commercial building energy consumption: An analysis using sample survey data,Although much of the commercial sector infrastructure for the next century is currently under construction or is in the planning stages| little has been done in communicating how potential global warming might change the energy consumption characteristics of the building stock. The research discussed in this article advances the literature on how climate change affects commercial sector energy demand systems. It projects the effects of climate change on commercial energy demand in the United States at the national level. The article relies heavily on time-series regressions of monthly energy consumption by building on monthly heating and cooling degree days. It provides empirical results for the effects of climate on a projected building stock in the year 2030 and examines the prospects for saving energy with advanced building designs in the context of potential global warming. 2485,1996,2,3,Climate change in Asia: A review of the vulnerability and adaptation of crop production,A number of studies have provided quantitative assessments of the potential climate change impacts on crop production in Asia. Estimates take into account (a) uncertainty in the level of climate change expected| using a range of climate change scenarios; (b) physiological effects of carbon dioxide on the crops; and (c) different adaptive responses. In all cases| the effects of climate change induced by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide depended on the counteracting effects among higher daily evapotranspiration rates| shortening of crop growth duration| and changes in precipitation patterns| as well as the effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and water-use efficiency. Although results varied depending on the geographical locations of the regions tested| the production of rice (the main food crop in the region) generally did not benefit from climate change. In South and Southeast Asia| there is concern about how climate change may affect El Nino/Southern Oscillation events| since these play a key role in determining agricultural production. Furthermore| problems arising from variability of water availability and soil degradation are currently major challenges to agriculture in the region. These problems may be exacerbated in the future if global climate change projections are realized. Many studies have considered strategies for improving agricultural management| based on the optimization of crop management decisions. Climate change analyses could be further strengthened by economic studies that integrate the potential use of natural resources across sectors. 2477,1996,2,4,Climate change| water stress| and fast forest response: A sensitivity study,Environmental crises provide ecology with a new impetus. Indeed| acid rain| massive changes in land-use| and the prospect of global climate change are giving the study of ecosystems a new meaning and new mandates. Careful natural history descriptions are no longer sufficient for evaluating potential impacts of changing environmental conditions. Understanding how ecosystems work has become a priority. The present paper investigates the role of water stress as an agent of rapid vegetation change. A sensitivity study is performed to explore the issue. Environmental changes are imposed| rather than obtained from atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) output| to facilitate the interpretation of the results| to enable the identification of generic patterns| in particular| critical thresholds| and to foster the understanding of underlying processes. A physically- and physiologically-based| climatically-sensitive| numerical simulation model of forest dynamics| the Energy| Water| and Momentum Exchange and Ecological Dynamics (EXE) model| is used for this purpose. The results of the sensitivity analysis undertaken with EXE document the interplay between physical and physiological feedbacks and ecological forest responses to climatic changes. Moreover| they explain the relative importance of temperature| water| and nitrogen limitations| indicating that water stress is responsible for some of the fastest vegetation changes. 4095,1996,2,3,Climatic effect of water vapor release in the upper troposphere,Water vapor is released into the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate middle atmosphere model at the locations and cruise altitude of subsonic aircraft. A range of water vapor values is used to simulate not only current and 2015 projected emissions but also to provide larger signal-noise ratios. The results show that aircraft water vapor emissions do not significantly affect the model's climate| either at the surface or in situ. With emissions some 15 times higher than the 2015 projection| a small impact is observed| amounting to a few tenths degrees celsius globally and locally| while with emissions 300 times the 2015 values| a global warming of 1 degrees C results. However| with releases this large| only about 5% actually stays in the atmosphere. The larger emissions increase the specific humidity most in the tropical lower troposphere| partly as a result of increased evaporation due to the global warming; at flight altitudes| relative humidity and cloud cover increase at latitudes of emission| and temperature decreases. Surface warming is relatively independent of latitude| and only a slight longitudinal aircraft footprint is found in the warming for the most extreme experiment. Comparison to increased CO2 experiments of similar magnitude warming shows that the upper tropospheric response is greater in the water vapor release experiments| but the high-latitude surface temperature response is larger with increased CO2 due to more effective cryospheric feedbacks. 4149,1996,2,3,Climatic trends from isotopic records of tree rings: The past 100-200 years,There has been a great deal of discussion about global warming from accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Houghton et al.| 1990). Relatively less attention has been paid to spatial and/or temporal climatic variations that may be associated with a warmer climate (Rind et al.| 1989) or with anthropogenic activities (Schneider| 1994). In this article; we show that an increase in climatic variability may have started. Fourteen isotopic time series of tree rings are presented. These trees were randomly collected from world-wide locations and cover time periods of 120 to over 200 years. The isotopic records show increasing delta D values that suggest a consistent and progressive warming occurred in the 19th century in all locations where the trees were sampled. The rate of warming is greater at relatively cold locations than at warm locations with two exceptions. The records also suggest greater climatic variations both temporally and spatially in the 20th century than in the 19th century. 4117,1996,2,4,Climatic warming and the degradation of warm permafrost,Permafrost - a widespread constituent of the terrestrial environment - by definition is dependent upon the ambient temperature for its existence and properties. Thus| it is very sensitive to climatic changes. Simple relations based upon conductive heat transfer| with thawing and geothermal heat flow| are presented to predict the transient effects of surface temperature increases on the thermal state of permafrost. The results indicate that| based on the usual global warming scenarios| relatively small amounts of permafrost will disappear within 50-100 years. This is specifically shown for the most thermally sensitive cases| that is| warm or relict permafrost.
4196,1996,4,4,Coal fuel cycle externalities estimates (part of the US initiative of the US DOE/CEC study),Electricity is of considerable benefit to the consumer and society. However| the price paid by the consumer does not necessarily reflect the full cost. There are two components to the full cost. One component is the private costs that are paid by the consumer| such as labor| capital| fuel| insurance| etc. The other component includes the cost or benefit accrued to third parties| such as: effects of global warming potential; effects on health from the emissions of SO2| NOx| and particulates; and other considerations. These costs or benefits are termed externalities| and usually are not included in the price paid by the consumer. Externalities estimates are presented for site-specific Pulverized Fuel electric generation stations located in the southwestern and southeastern part of the U.S.A. The results are referenced to the specific location and may not be applicable to other sites or technologies. The externalities are discussed for a wide range of effects| from global warming potential through trace metal emissions to energy security. 2496,1996,2,4,Comparison of sap flow| cavitation and water status of Quercus petraea and Quercus cerris trees with special reference to computer tomography,Concurrent measurements of sap velocity (heat pulse) and ultrasound acoustic emission were performed on the trunks of mature Turkey oak (Quercus cerris) and sessile oak (Quercus petraea) trees| Plant water status was assessed by measuring leaf water potential| leaf conductance and transpiration| Wood density was estimated non-destructively on the trunk section of the plants by mobile computer tomography| which measures the attenuation of a collimated beam of radiation traversing the trunk in several directions| as the device rotates around the tree| Absorption is proportional to the density of the wood| As wood density is strictly correlated to water content| this non-invasive method allows the water content in the trunk section to be evaluated as well as mapped. Leaf water potential declined each morning until a minimum was reached at midday and recovered in the afternoon| lagging behind changes in transpiration rate| Good correspondence was found between the patterns of sap velocity and cavitation rate| A close correlation was demonstrated between wood density| mater content and sap velocity| Sap flow was always higher in Turkey oak than in sessile oak| Trunk signatures by computer tomography appeared to differentiate the two oak species| with the Turkey oak stem clearly more hydrated than the sessile oak; water storage reservoirs could play an important role in tree survival during extended periods of low soil water availability and in the relative distribution of tree species| especially in the context of global climate change. Late-wood conducting elements of oak species seem to play a significant role in water transport| The mobile computer tomograph was confirmed as a peerless tool for investigating stem water relations| Diurnal variations in the measured parameters under natural drought conditions and the differences between the two oak species are discussed. 4134,1996,3,3,Control of rumen methanogenesis,During the last decades| considerable research on methane production in the rumen and its inhibition has been carried out. Initially| as methane production represents a significant loss of gross energy in the feed (2-15%)| the ultimate goal of such intervention in rumen fermentation was an increase in feed efficiency. A second reason favouring research on methane inhibition is its role in the global warming phenomenon and in the destruction of the ozone layer. In this review| the authors describe briefly several interventions for reducing methane emission by ruminants. The objective can be reached by intervention at the dietary level by ration manipulation (composition| feeding level) or by the use of additives or supplements. Examples of additives are polyhalogenated compounds| ionophores and other antibiotics. Supplementation of the ration with lipids also lowered methanogenesis. More biotechnological interventions| e.g.| defaunation| probiotics and introduction of reductive acetogenesis in the rumen| are also mentioned. It can be concluded that drastic inhibition of methane production is not unequivocally successful as a result of several factors| such as: instantaneous inhibition often followed by restoration of methanogenesis due to adaptation of the microbes or degradation of the additive| toxicity for the host animal| negative effects on overall digestion and productive performance. Therefore| methanogenesis and its inhibition cannot be considered as a separate part of rumen fermentation and its consequences on the animal should be taken into account. 2504,1996,2,3,Controls on CH4 flux from an Alaskan boreal wetland,Factors controlling the flux of the radiatively important trace gas methane (CH4) from boreal wetlands were examined at three sites along a moisture gradient from a treed low-shrub bog to an open floating graminoid bog in Fairbanks| Alaska. In the summer of 1992 average static chamber flux measurements were -0.02| 71.5| and 289 mg CH4/m(2)/d in dry| wet| and floating mat communities| respectively. In contrast| the warmer| drier 1993 field season flux measurements were -0.02| 42.9 and 407 mg CH4/m(2)/d. The data indicate that despite net oxidation of CH4 in the dry regions of the bog| the wetland is a net source of CH4| with fluxes ranging across three orders of magnitude between different plant communities. Comparison with water levels suggests that CH4 flux is turned on and off by changes in site hydrology. In sites where sufficient moisture is present for methanogenesis to occur| CH4 flux appears to be temperature limited| responding exponentially to soil temperature changes. The combined effects of hydrology and temperature create hot spots of CH4 flux within boreal wetlands. The plant communities within Lemeta Bog respond differently to changes in temperature and moisture availability| creating both positive and negative feedbacks to potential global climate change. 4185,1996,3,3,Converting terrestrial ecosystems from sources to sinks of carbon,It may be possible to sequester carbon in forests and forest products| but to date global trends in land management have resulted in a release of terrestrial carbon to the atmosphere. Over 100 PgC were released between 1850 and 1980| and during the 1980s global changes in land use (predominantly deforestation) caused a net release of 1.6 PgC yr(-1)| about 25% of the total emissions of carbon dioxide from human activities and about 15% of the enhanced radiative forcing. Management practices that could change this release of terrestrial carbon to an accumulation include (i) a halt to deforestation; (ii) an expansion in the land area of forests; (iii) an increase in the stocks of carbon in existing forests; (iv) more efficient harvest and greater use of wood in long-lasting products; and (v) the substitution of wood fuels for fossil fuels. However| the rate of global warming needs management as well. Unless the warming is gradual enough to avoid widespread mortality of forests| the additional releases of carbon caused by the warming itself| through increased respiration| decay| and fires| may cancel the intended effects of forest management. 4124,1996,2,4,Correlation between egg size and clutch size in the Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca in cold and warm summers,The correlation between egg size and clutch size was studied in the Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca in Finnish Lapland from 1975 to 1994. The hypothesis tested was that the tradeoff phenomenon is masked by warm weather. When data for 20 years were pooled| there was no correlation| However| when years were analysed separately| a negative correlation was observed for five of the years| Over 12 years| the correlation coefficient between egg size and clutch size was not significant| and for 3 years it was significantly positive. The size and magnitude of the correlation were related to temperature during the pre-laying and egg-laying periods| Of the annual variation| 34% was explained by the mean temperature in early summer. It is suggested that trade-off between egg size and clutch size may not be apparent in central (southern) parts of the distribution area of the species where climate is warmer. In the future| global warming may alter reproductive strategies of birds. Long-term data may thus be useful in the analysis of such effects and in testing of theoretical questions in ecology. 2512,1996,2,4,Cross-scale relationships regarding local temperature inversions at Cape Town and global climate change implications,This study develops a downscaling methodology for establishing relationships between Cape Town's winter synoptic scale circulation and temperature inversions in the boundary layer Application lion of the method is demonstrated by deriving inversion frequencies from general circulation model (GCM) data sets. Daily midday radiosonde data at Cape Town International airport for the winter of 1989 were classified in a binary manner for the identification of temperature inversions| and an artificial neural network (ANN) was trained to relate sea-level pressure fields over Cape Town to local inversion conditions. ANNs were used to derive the relationships because of their robustness in the presence of noise and because they| do not have the constraints of linearity. These relationships were then applied to the simulations generated by two GCMs| the GISS and GENESIS models| in order to investigate their ability to represent the synoptic controls on local inversions. The two GCMs compared favourably with each other and were reasonably similar to the NMC's observational data regarding the number of temperature inversions each reflected. Following this| circulation for a simulation of doubled atmospheric CO2 was used to predict possible future changes in the frequency of inversions over Cape Town. The occurrence of temperature inversions increased by approximately 25% using the GISS model and by 33% using GENESIS. This putative increase in inversion frequency as a result of global climate change could have implications for the city's atmospheric pollution. 2467,1996,4,4,Detecting discontinuities in time series of upper-air data: Development and demonstration of an adaptive filter technique,Recognizing the need for a long-term database to address the problem of global climate change| the National Climatic Data Center has embarked on a project called the Comprehensive Aerological Reference Data Set to create an upper-air database consisting of radiosondes| pibals| surface reports| and station histories for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Unfortunately| these data contain systematic errors caused by changes in instruments| data acquisition procedures| etc. It is essential that systematic errors be identified and/or removed before these data can be used confidently in the context of greenhouse-gas-induced climate modification. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the use of an adaptive moving average filter in detecting systematic biases and to compare its performance with the Schwarz criterion| a parametric method. The advantage of the adaptive filter over traditional parametric methods is that it is less affected by seasonal patterns and trends. The filter has been applied to upper air relative humidity and temperature data. The accuracy of locating the time at which a bias is introduced ranges from about 600 days for Changes of 0.1 standard deviations to about 20 days for changes of 0.5 standard deviations. 2492,1996,3,3,Development of a risk-hedging CO2-emission policy .2. Risks associated with measures to limit emissions| synthesis| and conclusions,This paper is Part II of a two-part series in which the risks associated with unrestrained greenhouse-gas emissions| and with measures to limit emissions| are reviewed. A sustained limitation of global CO2 emissions requires global population stabilization| a reduction in per capita emissions in the developed world| and a limitation of the increase in per capita emissions in the developing world. Reducing or limiting per capita emissions requires a major effort to improve the efficiency with which energy is transformed and used; urban development which minimizes the need for the private automobile and facilitates district heating| cooling| and cogeneration systems; and accelerated development of renewable energy. The following risks associated with these efforts to limit CO2 emissions are reviewed here: (i) resources might be diverted from other urgent needs; (ii) economic growth might be reduced; (iii) reduction measures might cost more than expected; (iv) early action might cost more than later action; (v) reduction measures might have undesired side effects; (vi) reduction measures might require heavy-handed government intervention; and (vii) reduction measures might not work. With gradual implementation of a diversified portfolio of measures| these risks can be greatly reduced. Net risk is further reduced by the fact that a number of non-climatic benefits would result from measures to limit CO2 emissions. Based on the review of risks associated with measures to limit emissions here| and the review of the risks associated with unrestrained emissions presented in Part I| it is concluded that a reasonable near-term (20-30 year) risk hedging strategy is one which seeks to stabilize global fossil CO2 emissions at the present (early 1990's) level. This in turn implies an emission reduction of 26% for industrialized countries as a whole and 40-50% for Canada and the USA if developing country emissions are to increase by no more than 60%| which in itself would require major assistance from the industrialized countries. The effectiveness of global CO2-emission stabilization in slowing down the buildup of atmospheric CO2 is enhanced by the fact that the airborne fraction (ratio of annual atmospheric CO2 increase to total annual anthropogenic emissions) decreases if emissions are stabilized| whereas it increases if emissions continue to grow exponentially. The framework and conclusions presented here are critically compared with so-called optimization frameworks. 4260,1996,2,4,Development of a water temperature-ecological model to stimulate global warming effects on lake ecosystem,This paper describes a newly developed combined water temperature-ecological (WT-ECO) model which is employed to simulate the effects of global warming on lake and reservoir ecosystems. The WT model includes (i) variations in the eddy diffusion coefficient based on the degree of thermal stratification and the velocity of wind| and (ii) a sub-model for simulating the freezing and thawing processes of surface water| water temperatures| and the mixing rates between two adjacent layers of water. The ECO model then uses these results to calculate the resultant effect on a lake's ecological dynamics| e.g.| composition of phytoplankton species| their respective concentrations| and nutrient concentrations| When the model was benchmarked against Lake Yunoko| a dimictic lake| fairly good agreement was obtained over a 4-yr period; thereby indicating it is suitably calibrated. In addition| to assess the effects of global warming on a lake ecosystem| changes in Lake Yunoko's water temperature/quality were simulated in response to an increase in air temperature of 2-4 degrees C. Results indicate that such an increase will (i) increase thermal stratification in summer| which increases the nutrient concentrations in bottom water due to nutrient release from bottom sediment| (ii) increase the concentration of phytoplankton at the beginning of the autumn circulation period| and (iii) change the composition of phytoplankton species. Copyright (C) 1996 IAWQ. 2518,1996,2,3,Differential responses of root uptake kinetics of NH4+ and NO3- to enriched atmospheric CO2 concentration in field-grown loblolly pine,The nitrogen requirement of plants is predominantly supplied by NH4+ and/or NO3- from the soil solution| but the energetic cost of uptake and assimilation is generally higher for NO3- than for NH4+. We found that CO2 enrichment of the atmosphere enhanced the root uptake capacity for NO3-| but not for NH4+| in field-grown loblolly pine saplings. Increased preference for NO3- at the elevated CO2 concentration was accompanied by increased carbohydrate levels in roots. The results have important implications for the potential consequences of global climate change on plant- and ecosystem-level processes in many temperate forest ecosystems. 4112,1996,3,3,Discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming,The economics of global warming is reviewed with special emphasis on how the cost depends on the discount rate and on how costs in poor and rich regions are aggregated into a global cost estimate. Both of these factors depend on the assumptions made concerning the underlying utility and welfare functions. It is common to aggregate welfare gains and losses across generations and countries as if the utility of money were constant| but it is not. If we assume that a CO2-equivalent doubling implies costs equal to 1.5% of the income in both high and low income countries| a pure rate of time preference equal to zero| and a utility function which is logarithmic in income| then the marginal cost of CO2 emissions is estimated at 260-590 USD/ton C for a time horizon in the range 300-1000 years| an estimate which is large enough to justify significant reductions of CO2 emissions on purely economic grounds. The estimate is approximately 50-100-times larger than the estimate made by Nordhaus in his DICE model and the difference is almost completely due to the choice of discount rate and the weight given to the costs in the developing world as well as a more accurate model of the carbon cycle| Finally| the sensitivity of the marginal cost estimate with respect to several parameters is analyzed. 4189,1996,3,4,Discounting of long-term costs: What would future generations prefer us to do?,Decisions with intergenerational consequences may leave future generations worse off (i.e.| not be Pareto-optimal) if costs and benefits are not discounted correctly. We point out that this happens if the conventional social discount rate is applied to intergenerational costs: with that rate the justification of intergenerational costs (benefits of a project are invested and the proceeds can cover future costs) leads to an inconsistency over the long term (eventually the supposed benefits of any project become larger than the entire GNP). The conventional approach commits an error by treating the time preference component of the discount rate as if it represented creation of wealth while it really involves only redistribution. The time horizon of the redistribution is limited by the duration of market transactions| especially loans. Thus we recommend a two-step discounting procedure| with the conventional social discount rate for the shea term (about 30 years) and the growth rate of the economy for the long term. Data for GNP per capita growth in the US| the UK| France| Germany| Japan and the Soviet Union since the industrial revolution| combined with data for net economic welfare per capita suggest an intergenerational discount rate in the range of 1 to 2%. For practical application the rate at which costs and benefits will grow over time is just as important as the discount rate; only the difference between these two rates matters. For many environmental costs these rates may be close to each other during the next few generations; this implies that some of the uncertainty in the prediction of rates cancels and one can treat the problem as if the effective rate were close to zero. The consequence for costs such as global warming or nuclear power can be very significant: the valuation can increase by more than an order of magnitude compared to values based on conventional discounting. 2531,1996,3,4,District heating & cooling systems of the future: Strategies for global change,The future of district heating and cooling| also known as district energy| will be a function of economic and regulatory forces in the United States. Typically a district energy system provides thermal energy in the form of steam| hot water| or chilled water from a central plant| and distributes the energy through pipes to two or more buildings. At the present time| district energy is under-utilized and serves only 1.3 percent of U.S. energy needs| providing a total of 1.1 quadrillion Btu of energy annually. A brief review of the historical development of district energy| the status of the technology in the United States| and a few basics on world energy consumption lead in to the economic and environmental advantages of district energy. District energy systems have been retrofitted to comply with the regulations of the Clean Air Act (CAA); presently emissions of greenhouse gases| such as CO2| are not regulated by the CAA. If the results of ongoing investigation on global climate change determine that regulation is warranted| several strategies exist for district energy systems to offer significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of district energy's reaction to the ongoing forces are possible with the use of energy consumption forecasts through the year 2015| and a discussion of trend setting concepts being applied involving. gas turbines| cogeneration| fuel cells| chillers| advanced transmission fluids| renewable energies| and CO2 capture. District energy has potential to be an important part of the evolving strategies for global climate change. For this reason| combined with technology advancements and a supportive economic climate| a new era in district energy has begun. Growth and development of district energy into the foreseeable future is expected to be strong. 2529,1996,2,4,Downscaling two versions of a general circulation model to estimate local hydroclimatic factors under climate change,The regional hydroclimatological effect of global climate change has been estimated and compared using a semi-empirical downscaling method with two versions (T21 and T42) of the general circulation model (GCM) developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology| Germany. The comparisons were performed with daily mean temperature and daily precipitation amounts for the continental climate of the state of Nebraska| USA. Both the T21 and the T42 versions resulted in an increase of daily mean temperature under a 2 x CO2 climate. The magnitude of warming was substantially greater for T21 than for T42| except for February and June and at some stations in July where the T42 model suggested greater warming. Both GCMs resulted in a slight decrease in precipitation frequency and an increase in the amount of precipitation on wet days. Here| the T42 model again led to smaller changes. Different locations within Nebraska exhibited somewhat different temperature and precipitation responses with both GCM versions. 4194,1996,3,3,Economic implications and decision-making in the face of global warming,One way to approach decision-making on the issue of global warming is to attempt to perform a cost-benefit analysis. However an this issue problems of valuation| risk and uncertainty| time-discounting| and equity make cost-benefit analysis so inconclusive and controversial that-far from helping decision-making-it is likely to hinder it. An alternative approach involves accepting that climate stability has to be secured on the grounds of environmental sustainability| and determining in principle to undertake the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions that is necessary to achieve this. The timetable of such abatement will obviously depend to some extent on its costs. The evidence on abatement costs suggests that a 20 percent abatement from 1990 levels of carbon dioxide (the principal greenhouse gas) can be achieved in industrial countries at low or no cost by 2010. Application of the sustainability principle suggests that this is a reasonable first target. If deeper cuts in emissions are deemed necessary thereafter they will be achieved more easily and at lower cost than if abatement in the interim is negligible. 4221,1996,4,3,Economics| ethics| and climate policy: Framing the debate,This paper examines the economic and ethical dimensions of climate policy in light of existing knowledge of the impacts of global warming and the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement. We find that the criterion of economic efficiency| operationalized through cost-benefit analysis| is ill-equipped to cope with the pervasive uncertainties and issues of intergenerational fairness that characterize climate change. In contrast| the concept of sustainable development-that today's policies should ensure that future generations enjoy life opportunities undiminished relative to the present-is a normative criterion that explicitly addresses the uncertainties and distributional aspects of global environmental change. If one interprets the sustainability criterion to imply that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons| a case can be made for significant steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 4254,1996,2,4,Ecotypic differences in the flowering of Pimelea ferruginea (Thymelaeaceae) in response to cool temperatures,Pimelea ferruginea Labill.| a spring-flowering woody perennial from Western Australia| is distributed coastally from Albany (latitude 35 degrees 11'S) to just below Geraldton (latitude 29 degrees 07'S). Clones developed from cuttings| taken from single plants of Pimelea ferruginea at sites covering the range of its distribution| were grown vegetatively for up to 6 months in a naturally lit glasshouse and then transferred to a range of temperatures for induction of flowering. Selections from cooler| southerly sites (33-35 degrees S latitude) flowered with a low temperature optimum (12-15 degrees C average) but remained vegetative at a 3 degrees C higher temperature (18 degrees C). By contrast| northerly selections (29-30 degrees S latitude) tolerated 3-5 degrees C warmer conditions for their flowering. Daylength effects were of minor importance relative to the response to cool temperature with short (10 h) days being marginally more favourable than long days (16 h). In the wild| Pimelea ferruginea flowers in spring (September-October) after experiencing winter temperatures comparable to those effective in controlled environments. To define field flowering response| at the beginning of winter| vegetative six-month-old plants of the various selections were transferred to a southerly| intermediate or northerly field nursery site in Western Australia. The differences in flowering response across sites and selections broadly matched the temperatures needed for flowering of the selections in controlled environments. These physiological differences in regulation of flowering indicate ecotypic adaptation to temperature over the latitudinal range of distribution of this species of Pimelea. The field transfer experiments highlight the overriding inductive effect of cool winter temperatures in determining flowering time. Furthermore| any rise of 2-4 degrees C in winter temperature due to global warming could have serious consequences for floral initiation and for survival of P. ferruginea. 2507,1996,2,3,Effect of changing temperature and water table on trace gas emission from minerotrophic mires,Peatlands| hydromorphous soils with high organic matter content| display| as a result of anaerobic conditions| a delayed litter decomposition and therefore constitute important terrestric sinks for carbon and nitrogen compounds. In spite of their relatively small area proportion of approx. 3% (3.88-4.38 x 10(6) km(2))| peatlands contain approx. 30% of the world's soil carbon and nitrogen reserves. Several signs indicate that substantial drainage and increasing temperatures due to the increasing cultivation of peatlands and the global climate change could result in a large-scale conversion of peatlands from C/N sinks to C/N sources. Irrespective of many uncertain details and complex interactions with other factors| the lowering of the groundwater table of peatlands actually seems to strongly enhance the net release of the radiatively active trace gases carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide| reducing at the same time the high emissions of methane that occur in natural peatlands. The antizipated climate change will probably induce large-scale shifts in the distribution of the different peatland ecosystems along with considerable changes of the trace gas emissions. In view of this development| a net loss of global peatland area along with an increase in their contribution to the greenhouse effect must be expected. 4276,1996,3,4,Effect of forest drainage on the carbon balance of a mire: A case study,Natural mires generally act as sinks for CO2 and are sources of CH4 for the atmosphere. However| drainage may transform these ecosystems into net sources of CO2| but the increase in growth of the tree stand and consequent fixation of carbon after drainage may be expected to have a compensating effect. The post-drainage change in the peat carbon stores was determined using a method based on the bulk density and carbon content profiles measured along a transect running from the undrained part to the drained part of the mire. The difference between the undrained and drained peat carbon stores| averaged over the 30 yr period after drainage| indicated that the accumulation of carbon had been 35 g C m(-2) yr(-1) greater in the undrained site. As the long-term accumulation rate of the undrained site had been 21 g C m(-2) yr(-1)| the drained part had lost 14 g C m(-2) yr(-1) from the pre-drainage carbon store. Total accumulated biomass in the tree stand was estimated from stem wood development using the growth and yield tables for this site type. The stem wood volumes were transformed into total biomass values using published stem-volume/total-biomass ratios. If no harvesting operations were to occur during the first 300 yrs| the tree stand would produce an average carbon store of approximately 11 kg C m(-2). The application of a standard thinning regime would reduce this storage by ca 50%. Expressed as an average over 300 yrs| drainage increased the total carbon store of the mire if no tree harvesting was done and the store remained unchanged if standard harvesting procedures were used. 4273,1996,4,4,Effects of alternative cloud radiation parameterizations in a general circulation model,Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (MCAR) general circulation model (CCM2)| a suite of alternative cloud radiation parameterizations has been tested. Our methodology relies on perpetual July integrations driven by +/-2 K sea surface temperature forcing. The tested parameterizations include relative humidity based clouds and versions of schemes involving a prognostic cloud water budget. We are especially interested in testing the effect of cloud optical thickness feedbacks on global climate sensitivity. All schemes exhibit negative cloud radiation feedbacks| i.e.| cloud moderates the global warming. However| these negative net cloud radiation feedbacks consist of quite different shortwave and longwave components between a scheme with interactive cloud radiative properties and several schemes with specified cloud water paths. An increase in cloud water content in the warmer climate leads to optically thicker middle- and low-level clouds and in turn negative shortwave feedbacks for the interactive radiative scheme| while a decrease in cloud amount leads to a positive shortwave feedback for the other schemes. For the longwave feedbacks| a decrease in high effective cloudiness for the schemes without interactive radiative properties leads to a negative feedback| while no distinct changes in effective high cloudiness and the resulting feedback are exhibited for the scheme with interactive radiative properties. The resulting magnitude of negative net cloud radiation feed-back is largest for the scheme with interactive radiative properties. Even though the simulated values of cloud radiative forcing for the present climate using this method differ most from the observational data| the approach shows great promise for the future. 4161,1996,2,4,Effects of changes in minimum and maximum temperature on wheat yields in the central US - A simulation study,Recent observations and general circulation models indicate that future temperature changes linked to global warming might be characterized by a marked asymmetry between daytime maxima and nighttime minima. We investigate the importance of such a pattern in determining future wheat (Triticum aestivum) yields in the Central United States by using a dynamic crop growth model| CERES-Wheat| modified to include physiological effects of temperature and CO2 on canopy photosynthesis. Simulations are run at four sites spanning a north-south transect of the Central US; four mean temperatures increases (1-4 degrees C) are applied to baseline daily climate data (1951-1980). The effects of two different scenarios of temperature change (minimum and maximum temperatures equally raised; minima increased three times as much as maxima in agreement with recent observations) are analyzed under both current (330 ppm) and elevated (550 ppm) CO2 concentrations. The main mechanisms controlling the simulated wheat responses are direct and indirect temperature effects on wheat phenological development. Negative effects of temperature on simulated wheat yields are reduced when minima increase more than maxima. Yield changes are consistently negative under temperature change and current CO2 concentration| while they range from positive to negative under temperature change and elevated CO2 concentration. Responses vary across the transect| with larger negative effects occurring at the southernmost site. 4261,1996,2,4,Effects of CO2 concentration on the photosynthetic and carboxylation efficiencies of Fagus crenata and Quercus crispula,To determine the effects of limited and elevated CO2 concentrations on leaf photosynthesis which may suggest the effects of global CO2 level increase and global warming on forest structure| the photosynthetic and carboxylation efficiencies were investigated in two representative co-occurring tree species in the cool-temperate natural forests in central Japan| Fagus crenata and Quercus crispula. Measurements were performed for four-year-old seedlings in CO2-air mixtures of 175| 350| 700 and 900 mu mol mol(-1)| respectively| with photosynthetic irradiance (I) decreasing gradually from 1200 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) to darkness| and at 25 +/- 0.2 degrees C leaf temperature and 1.8 +/- 0.2 kPa leaf to air vapour pressure deficit. The CO2 concentrations strongly stimulated net photosynthetic rate| P-N (p<0.001)| and the photosynthetic efficiency| alpha| for both F. crenata and Q. crispula. Carboxylation efficiency of Q. crispula was dependent on I| with a significantly higher efficiency of CO2 utilization at an I of 1200 than of 500 mu mol m(-2) s(-1). A decrease in I from 1200 to 500 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)| however| did not prevent a curvilinear increase in P-N at increased CO2 concentrations. In contrast| F. crenata seedlings showed less difference in PN between low-I and high-I environments. Nonetheless| F. crenata showed a greater CO2 response| with alpha increased by 25 % from 350 to 700 mu mol(CO2) mol(-1). alpha of Q. crispula| however| increased by less than 20 % as CO2 concentration increased from 350 to 700 mu mol mol(-1). The higher P-N at high CO2 concentration under low I was attributed to the CO2 concentration accompanied by a significant decrease in compensation irradiance. These results suggest that the continuous increase in global CO2 concentrations will directly result in an increase in photosynthetic efficiencies of both F. crenata and Q. crispula. The competitive relationship between the two species will change if a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration occurs;by the mid of the 21(st) century| with F. crenata benefiting more from CO2 fertilization than Q. crispula. 4162,1996,2,4,Effects of elevated CO2 concentration and climate-warming on photosynthesis during winter in Lolium perenne,Long-term effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (ambient or 700 mu mol mol(-1)) and air temperature (simulation of field conditions or +4 degrees C) on leaf photosynthetic rate were examined in Lolium perenne L. cv. Vigor| exposed to natural illumination during winter. Photosynthetic capacity was compared over a range of air temperatures and photon flux densities of photosynthetically active radiation which were representative of winter climate (5-15 degrees C and 0-500 mu mol m(-2) s(-1))| with CO2 level during measurement similar to that during the experimental period| Long-term exposure to increased air temperature reduced leaf CO2 fixation capacity by 23% (averaged over all measurement conditions)| resulting from a decline in light-saturated uptake rate| but not in incident-light quantum efficiency| CO2-stimulation was largely absent in plants grown in ambient temperature| but pronounced in plants grown under +4 degrees C| where it compensated for two-thirds of the 23% drop. This enhancing effect of elevated CO2 level on leaf CO2 uptake rate observed in the warmer treatment| was strongly dependent on measurement temperature| increasing from 5% at 5 degrees C| to up to 32% at 15 degrees C. Measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence and dry matter corresponded with the observed changes in assimilation capacity| which could not be attributed to a deteriorated nitrogen status of the leaves as there was a similar N content on an area basis. Several hypotheses are considered to explain the observed CO2-temperature interactions. 2469,1996,2,4,Effects of elevated CO2 concentration and high temperature on growth and yield of rice,Phenological development| biomass production and the related growth characteristics of rice (cv Akihikari) in canopy were measured over the entire growth period under different CO2 concentrations and air temperature regimes in temperature gradient chambers (TGCs)| in order to clarify the effects of anticipated global climate change on rice production. The TGC is a plastic tunnel with the dimensions of 26m in length| 2. 05m in width and 1.7m in height in which air was ventilated at varying rates to created a 4 degrees C temperature gradient along its longitudinal axis. Two TGCs were used for this experiment;one was kept at ambient CO2 (congruent to 350 mu LL(-1)) concentration and the other at 690 mu LL(-1) throughout the entire growth period. CO2 x temperature treatmets were applied to potted rice plants displaced in TGC at the density of 20 hills m(-2) in 1991| and on transplanted plants on soil bed in TGC at 25 hills m(-2) in 1992. In both years| a sufficient amount of nutrition was applied in split. The nearly doubled CO2 concentration (690 mu LL(-1)) accelerated phenological development of rice toward heading with more pronounced effects at higher temperatures. The number of days to heading of elevated CO2 plants at 30 degrees C was 11% less than that of ambient CO2 plants. The elevated CO2 concentration remarkably promoted both total and productive tiller numbers| whereas it gave a negligibly small effect on plant height. Also| the elevated CO2 concentration gave minor effects on leaf area index except at the initial growth stage| coinciding with the previous workers' results. The elevated CO2 concentration markedly promoted crop dry matter production| on which temperature appeared to give negligibly small effects. The relative enhancement rate by the doubled CO2 on crop dry weight at maturity was estimated to be 24% as average over the entire temperature range (26 similar to 30 degrees C) in both years. The insensitive temperature response in the enhancement rate was contrary to previous workers' results. This is considered to be due to previous workers' results being based on largely isolated plants where radiation might less limit the growth than in the present experiment in the canopy condition. 4098,1996,2,4,Effects of elevated summer temperatures and reduced pH on metabolism and growth of juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) on unlimited ration,Juvenile trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were exposed to a simulated global warming - acidic water scenario over a 90-day summer period (control temperature range 13-24 degrees C). The addition of 2 degrees C to the fluctuating summer cycle of inshore Lake Ontario and H2SO4 to synthetic soft water resulted in four treatments: control| acidification of control| simulated global warming alone| and global warming plus acidification. The twice-daily feeding regime raised metabolic rates to similar to 75% of Mo-2(max). Large increases (from 4.5 to 11.5%) in whole-body lipid| smaller increases (from 12.0 to 15.5%) in protein| and compensating decreases in water content (from 77 to 71%) occurred in all treatments over time. The addition of 2 degrees C resulted in depressed appetites and growth| particularly after the period of peak temperature (days 60-90; 26 degrees C). Metabolic rate and nitrogenous waste excretion were also depressed. Overall| exposure to low pH resulted in increased appetites and growth| the increase of 2 degrees C reduced gross energy intake and increased fecal energy losses| and exposure to low pH resulted in increased energy intake and gain and better conversion efficiency. The lack of ionoregulatory disturbance in trout chronically exposed to pH 5.2 suggested that dietary NaCl may have compensated for branchial ion losses. 2510,1996,2,3,Effects of enhanced solar UV-B radiation on phytoplankton,Phytoplankton is the basis of the extended aquatic food webs and any reduction in biomass productivity due to increased levels of solar UV-B radiation (280-315 nm) is bound to have detrimental effects. In addition| the oceans play a key role with respect to global warming as marine phytoplankton are a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. Phytoplankton are not uniformly distributed throughout the oceans of the world. The highest concentrations are found at high latitudes while| with the exception of upwelling areas on the continental shelves| the tropics and subtropics have 10 to 100 times lower concentrations. In addition to other factors solar UV-B radiation may play a role in phytoplankton distributions. Phytoplankton productivity is limited to the euphotic zone| the upper layer of the water column in which there is sufficient sunlight to support net productivity. Here they are exposed to solar UV-B radiation which affects orientation and motility as well as photosynthesis| nitrogen uptake and other key physiological processes. Work in the Antarctic has shown a direct reduction in phytoplankton production due to ozone-related increases in UV-B. 4253,1996,3,3,Effects of N management on N2O and CH4 fluxes and N-15 - Recovery in an irrigated mountain meadow,Forage production in irrigated mountain meadows plays a vital role in the livestock industry in Colorado and Wyoming. Mountain meadows are areas of intensive fertilization and irrigation which may impact regional CH4 and N2O fluxes. Nitrogen fertilization typically increases yields| but N-use efficiency is generally low. Neither the amount of fertilizer-N recovered by the forage nor the effect on N2O and CH4 emissions were known. These trace gases are long-lived in the atmosphere and contribute to global warming potential and stratospheric ozone depletion. From 1991 through 1993 studies were conducted to determine the effect of N source| and timing of N-fertilization on forage yield| N-uptake| and trace gas fluxes at the CSU Beef Improvement Center near Saratoga| Wyoming. Plots were fertilized with 168 kg N ha(-1). Microplots labeled with N-15-fertilizer were established to trace the fate of the added N. Weekly fluxes of N2O and CH4 were measured during the snow-free periods of the year. Although CH4 was consumed when soils were drying| flood irrigation converted the meadow into a net source of CH4. Nitrogen fertilization did not affect CH4 flux but increased N2O emissions. About 5% of the applied N was lost as N2O from spring applied NH4NO3| far greater than the amount lost as N2O from urea or fall applied NH4NO3. Fertilizer N additions increased forage biomass to a maximum of 14.6 Mg ha(-1) with spring applied NH4NO3. Plant uptake of N-fertilizer was greater with spring applications (42%)| than with fall applications (22%). 4188,1996,3,3,Efficient electrical end-use technologies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in Africa,International concern about the impacts of global warming has resulted in cooperative activity among developed and developing nations to address the issue. Already| developed countries have agreed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC)| developed countries agreed to meet the incremental costs of reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases. One possible avenue for effecting the provisions of the FCCC is joint implementation (JI) projects involving developed and developing countries. This article looks at a sample of African countries that are at different levels of development. It identifies resource options that| when used in an integrated resource planning contact| prove to be cost effective as well as environmentally benign. II investigates these options| particularly energy efficient appliances and compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) in terms of their effects on the planning and operations of electric utilities and on their emission of global warming gases. The authors hope that the article will be helpful in developing criteria for selecting and prioritizing JI projects. It focuses on Africa because it appears that| unlike Asia and Latin America| the least amount of information has been published for this continent in general. 4160,1996,2,3,El Nino-like climate change in a model with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations,SEA surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean increased on average by several tenths of a degree during the 1980s and early 1990s(1-4)| contributing to the observed global warming during this period(5). Here we investigate the possible causes of this Pacific warming| using a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model incorporating increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide| In the model| cloud cover and cloud albedo feedbacks contribute to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature increases that are greater east of 180 degrees longitude| with attendant shifts in large-scale precipitation patterns and mid-latitude circulation anomalies in the north Pacific. These anomalies resemble some aspects of El Nino events| as well as features associated with recent observed Pacific-region climate anomalies. The resemblance to El Nino complicates the problem of detection and attribution of climate change| and suggests that depletion of freshwater resources(6) may be an additional hazard of greenhouse warming for populations in the western Pacific region.
2532,1996,4,4,Energy demand and supply in metropolitan New York with global climate change,The purpose of this paper is to provide background information for a scenario planning exercise. It draws on several different sources| but the primary ones are an evaluation of carbon dioxide emission control strategies using the energy and environmental systems model| MARKAL| and the New York State Energy Plan| its technical appendices and other reports from the State Energy Office. The former applied computer modelling that is sensitive to cost assumptions. The modelling period extended to 2028. The analysis was intended to explore the range of possibilities rather than to assess policies that were actually under consideration by the State. The State Energy Plan draws on a wider range of information and analysis techniques. It provides projections to 2012| but often focuses on current action and proposals. The two are not in conflict; they serve complementary purposes.
2527,1996,2,4,Environmental and endocrine control of reproduction in two species of polychaete: Potential bio-indicators for global climate exchange,An in vitro bioassay has been developed which shows that oogenesis in Harmothoe imbricata is controlled by a gonadotrophic hormone which promotes egg protein synthesis in developing oocytes. A similar endocrine control mechanism is found in Eulalia viridis and analysis of in vivo assays indicate that the hormone acts as a transducer between the environment and the gamete. The timing of gametogenesis is controlled by environmental cues in both species and may be affected by predicted global climate change. With the development of these sensitive hormone assays it is possible to test the impact of climate change on both species| providing a possible early warning system for global warming and potential bio-indicators of climate change. Harmothoe imbricata is likely to be the more sensitive indicator species. 4100,1996,3,4,Environmental and health benefits of district cooling using utility-based cogeneration in Ontario| Canada,Environmental and health benefits are shown to be possible in the province of Ontario by using heat cogenerated from the facilities of the main provincial electrical utility| Ontario Hydro| to drive absorption chillers which supply the cooling needs of district-cooling networks in the province. Two district-cooling scenarios are assessed. The first assumes implementation of utility-based cogeneration/absorption chilling to satisfy a minor portion of the cooling demands of the residential-commercial-institutional sector. The other scenario is similar| but assumes a larger portion of the sector cooling demands are satisfied using utility-based cogeneration/absorption chilling. Presented in the assessments are (i) data on fuel-cycle emissions| environmental and health effects| and associated economic costs of the existing Ontario Hydro energy system and (ii) the reductions in emissions| effects and environmental and health costs predicted for each scenario. Effects considered include mortality| morbidity| lost work days| lost crop yield| lost fish yield| building damage| global warming and aquatic thermal effects. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4133,1996,3,4,Environmental impact of biomethanogenesis,The environmental impact of biomethanogenesis is related to its ecological role| accumulation and effect as a greenhouse gas| and application in anaerobic digestion for conversion of biomass and wastes to methane and compost. Biological formation of methane is the process by which bacteria decompose organic matter using carbon dioxide as an electron acceptor in the absence of dioxygen or other electron accepters. This microbial activity is responsible for carbon recycling in anaerobic environments| including wetlands| rice fields| intestines of animals sediments| and manures. The mixed consortium of microorganisms involved includes a unique group of bacteria| the methanogens| which may be considered to be in a separate kingdom based on genetic and phylogenetic variance from all other life forms. Because methane is a significant and increasing greenhouse gas| its source fluxes and their potential reduction are of concern. Biomethanogenesis may be harnessed for reduction of wastes and conversion of renewable resources to significant quantities of substitute natural gas which could mitigate carbon dioxide and other pollutants related to use of fossil fuels. 4205,1996,3,4,Environmental integrity| racism and health,Environmental degradation seriously affects human health. Thus| a close relationship exists between the protection of ecosystem integrity and wilderness on one hand| and human health on the other. However| there is an overarching| holistic perspective in laws and regulations - as well as morality - to maintain a healthy relationship between the two. Problem areas focused on in this paper are: (a) climate change and global warming; (b) food production; and (c) global equity. This paper argues for the principle of integrity| which provides an holistic perspective| suggested as a better approach than that of current regulations to mitigate against associated threats to human health. 4271,1996,3,4,Environmental life cycle analyses of transport systems,The importance of fuel cells for future low emission transportation systems is well known| but in order to obtain a complete picture of the benefits there is a need to consider the environmental impact of such systems over their lifetime from manufacture to disposal. This paper presents the preliminary results of environmental life cycle analyses of fuel cell vehicle drives and other low pollution options| thus enabling a comparative assessment to be made. 4203,1996,3,3,Environmental protection in the electronic and electrical industries,Global environment conservation in the electronic and electrical industries is discussed in this paper from three stand-points: the prevention of pollution and contamination| global environmental problems and the development of products contributing to environmental protection in the society. These can be summarized as follows: (i) to prevent pollution and contamination in manufacturing activities by way of environmental management and investment for improvements Hitachi has invested for the last twenty years; (ii) to establish an action program for environmental issues such as ozone-layer protection| global-warming prevention| industrial-waste reduction and products recycling; and (iii) to innovate and develop product technologies for the improvement of energy efficiency| contributing to the prevention of global warming. 4150,1996,2,4,Equilibrium and transient global| warming scenario implications for water resources in Wales,A methodology has been developed to predict the responses of a range of water supply sources in Wales to global warming scenarios. Hydrologically effective rainfall is predicted from temperature and precipitation for each season based on site specific formulae developed using the Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System (MORECS) and UK Surface Water Archive databases. Comparisons are then made between the effects predicted for the scenarios established from equilibrium simulations and the new Hadley Centre High Resolution Model (UKHI) transient mode results. Though very different| both suggest increased stress on water resources late in the hydrological year. 4109,1996,2,3,Estimates of indirect global warming potentials for CH4| CO AND NOX,Emissions may affect climate indirectly through chemical interactions in the atmosphere| but quantifications of such effects are difficult and uncertain due to incomplete knowledge and inadequate methods. A preliminary assessment of the climatic impact of changes in tropospheric O-3 and CH4 in response to various emissions is given. For a 10% increase in the CH4 emissions the relative increase in concentration has been estimated to be 37% larger. The radiative forcing from enhanced levels of tropospheric O-3 is estimated to 37% of the forcing from changes in CH4. Inclusion of indirect effects approximately doubles the climatic impact of CH4 emissions. Emissions of NOx increase tropospheric O-3| while the levels of CH4 are reduced. For emissions of NOx from aircraft| the positive effects via O-3 changes are significantly larger than the negative through changes in CH4. For NOx emitted from surface sources| the effects through changes in O-3 and CH4 are estimated to be of similar magnitude and large uncertainty is connected to the sign of the net effect. Emissions of CO have positive indirect effects on climate through enhanced levels of tropospheric O-3 and increased lifetime of CH4. These results form the basis for estimates of global warming potentials for sustained step increases in emissions. 2489,1996,2,4,Estimating daily wind speed under climate change,A semi-empirical downscaling approach is presented to estimate spatial and temporal statistical properties of local daily mean wind speed under global climate change. The present semi-empirical downscaling method consists of two elements. Since general circulation models (GCMs) are able to reproduce the features of the present atmospheric general circulation quite correctly| the first element represents the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere. The second element is a link between local wind speed and large-scale circulation pattern (CP). The linkage is expressed by a stochastic model conditioned on CP types. Parameters of the linkage model are estimated using observed data series; then this model is utilized with GCM-generated CP type data corresponding to a 2 x CO2 scenario. Under the climate of Nebraska the lognormal distribution is the best two-parameter distribution to describe daily mean wind speed. The space-time variability of wind speed is described by a transformed multivariate autoregressive (AR) process| and the linkage between local wind and large-scale circulation is expressed as a conditional AR process| i.e. the autoregressive parameters depend on the actual daily CP type. The basic tendency of change under 2 x CO2 climate is a considerable increase of wind speed from the beginning of summer to the end of winter and a somewhat smaller wind decrease in spring. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4210,1996,4,4,Estimation of areal flux of atmospheric methane in an urban area of Nagoya| Japan| inferred from atmospheric radon-222 data,To clarify the emission of methane (CH4) from area sources| we have adopted atmospheric radon-222 (Rn-222) as a natural tracer. The diurnal variation in CH4 concentration is predominantly affected by local meteorological conditions as is the case of Rn-222. Positive correlations are recognized between atmospheric CH4 and Rn-222 concentrations. From these correlations| the CH4 flux from urban area in Nagoya| Japan| was estimated to be almost constant at 0.02 gCH(4) m(-2) d(-1) over a year. 4139,1996,2,4,Evaluating eolian-climatic interactions using a regional climate model from Hanford| Washington (USA),A regional climate model (RCM) developed for the Hanford Site| Washington illustrates a potentially useful method for assessing eolian responses to regional climate change. The RCM is based on long-term relations between fundamental climatic variables of precipitation| temperature| and wind speed. Modelled data are integrated into eolian-climatic scenarios through maps of eolian susceptibility| plots of sand dune mobility| and calculated trends of unvegetated dune sand volumes. Results demonstrate the sensitivity of eolian-climatic interactions to small changes in precipitation. Analyses suggest that continuation of the 1977-1987 trend toward a cooler (-0.16 degrees C) and wetter (+1.8 cm yr(-1)) climate over the next 10-15 years will result in a decrease of similar to 18% in the volume of unvegetated dune sand. Further temperature reductions totaling 0.7 degrees C would promote precipitation increases of 30% leading to an additional reduction of 98% in the volume of unvegetated dune sand. Modelling scenarios for a possible global warming of +4 degrees C indicate that annual precipitation at Hanford would be negligible and vegetation would be eliminated from dune surfaces. Sand dune mobility would increase by over 400%. 4176,1996,2,4,Extinctions of montane mammals reconsidered: Putting a global-warming scenario on ice,McDonald and Brown developed a model based on island biogeographic principles to predict the magnitude and composition of small mammal extinctions from isolated boreal habitats atop mountains of the Great Basin following global warming. The model predicts that three of 14 boreal mammals will go extinct regionally and that four of 19 mountain ranges will lose upwards of 50% of their present faunas. Here| we re-examine the model on the basis of its underlying assumptions| on the statistical and biogeographic protocols used| and on its predictive power. A key assumption| that populations of these small mammals are isolated by absolute barriers to dispersal| is challenged by published field observations and by extensive trapping records. Statistical procedures used to construct the model are questionable and the model itself yields imprecise estimates. The biogeographic principle used to identify extinction-prone species| nested subsets of species| makes predictions that are at odds with available autecological information. The demonstration of a nested pattern of species occurrences does not provide definitive evidence in resolving SLOSS - or whether a single large island or several small islands of equivalent total area will contain more species. We conclude that the model is not a reliable method for forecasting species extinctions following global warming. The final resolution of the biogeography of montane mammals (and predictive models of extinction) in the Great Basin must await a full and accurate accounting of past and present species distributions. 4097,1996,4,4,Extrapolation problems in modeling fire effects at large spatial scales: A review,Models of vegetation change in response to global warming need to incorporate the effects of disturbance at broad spatial scales. Process-based predictive models| whether for fire behavior or fire effects on vegetation| assume homogeneity of crucial inputs over the spatial scale to which they are applied. Landscape disturbance models predict final burning patterns| but either do not model mechanistic behavior and explicit spread rates| or require large amounts of data to initialize simulations and predict ecological effects. Empirical data on the ecological effects of fire are not generally available at these scales| and conclusions are often extrapolated upward from stand-level data. Three methods for extrapolating ecological effects of fire across spatial scales and the sources of error associated with each were identified: (1) extrapolating fire behavior models directly to larger spatial scales; (2) integrating fire behavior and fire effects models with successional models at the stand level| then extrapolating upward; and (3) aggregating model inputs to the scale of interest. Extreme fire events present a challenging problem for modelers| regardless of which extrapolation method is employed. No single approach to modeling fire effects is inherently superior; modeling objectives and the characteristics of specific systems will determine the best strategy for each situation. 2493,1996,2,4,Forest floor carbon pools and fluxes along a regional climate gradient in Maine| USA,Global carbon (C) reserves in soil are large compared with atmospheric stocks (in the form of CO2 and methane)| so small changes in soil C storage will have a significant effect on atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In order to better understand the consequences of global climate change| it is essential that we define how soil C storage is influenced by changes in temperature and moisture that are expected as a result of global climate change| Forest floor carbon pools and fluxes were evaluated at 16 northern hardwood sites located within four distinct climate regions (Northern| Central| Southern and Coastal) in Maine. Mean annual air temperature at the sites ranged from 2.0 degrees C in the Northern region to 6.2 degrees C in the Coastal region and average annual precipitation ranged from 90 cm in the Northern region to 140 cm in the Coastal region. Leaf litter mass and leaf litter C flux were not correlated with temperature indices and did not vary among regions| However| they were positively correlated with annual precipitation| suggesting that litter production was controlled| in part at least| by precipitation but not by temperature. Northern sites stored more C in the forest floor than Coastal sites| and they experienced slower decomposition rates. Because soil and vegetation characteristics of these sites were similar| we attribute these trends to differences in climate| Indeed| C turnover time was correlated with latitude and temperature indices| Slower decomposition in the Northern region was attributed to a combination of lower specific activity at temperatures below 13 degrees C| cooler average temperatures and a shorter frost-free season. Soil respiration at each site was positively correlated with temperature and the slope of the relationship increased with latitude| indicating that the ability of the soil biota to respire C varied with climate| A predictive equation is presented that accounts for the change in slope with latitude. Because C loss through soil respiration was more sensitive to temperature than C inputs from litter| any regional warming in the next century may lead to a decrease in forest floor carbon storage| However| if precipitation increases with temperature| then litter C flux may increase and offset the increase in soil respiration. 4219,1996,2,4,Free air temperature increase (FATI): A new tool to study global warming effects on plants in the field,A new technique| called Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI)| was developed to artificially induce increased canopy temperature in field conditions without the use of enclosures. This acronym was chosen in analogy with FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment)| a technique which produces elevated CO2 concentrations [CO2] in open field conditions. The FATI system simulates global warming in small ecosystems of limited height| using infrared heaters from which all radiation below 800 nm is removed by selective cut-off filters to avoid undesirable photomorphogenetic effects. An electronic control circuit tracks the ambient canopy temperature in an unheated reference plot with thermocouples| and modulates the radiant energy from the lamps to produce a 2 5 degrees C increment in the canopy temperature of an associated heated plot (continuously day and night). This pre-set target differential is relatively constant over time due to the fast response of the lamps and the use of a proportional action controller (the standard deviation of this increment was <1 degrees C in a 3 week field study with 1007 measurements). Furthermore| the increase in leaf temperature does not depend on the vertical position within the canopy or on the height of the stand. Possible applications and alternative designs are discussed. 4195,1996,3,3,From joint implementation to a system of tradeable CO2 emission entitlements,A system of tradeable CO2 emission entitlements is an appealing approach to combat global warming at least from the theoretical point of view. But| when examining in more detail the possible criteria for distributions of CO2 entitlements-such as grandfathering or distribution per capita-it appears that an international agreement on the implementation of the entitlement system without introductory measures is quite improbable. The most important criterion that will determine whether such a distribution hey mill indeed be accepted is neglected| that is| the willingness to pay. Much has been written about the structures and theoretical advantages of joint implementation and tradeable permits But greenhouse gas emission reductions achievable with joint implementation as a single instrument will not be sufficient to protect the earth's atmosphere. At the same time| a system of tradeable emission Entitlements is unlikely to be established. This article suggests introducing the system of tradeable CO2 emission entitlements gradually| using stages of joint implementation in a stepwise manner. Using joint implementation to enter an entitlement system allows industrialized countries to adapt their self-defined emission quotas to their willingness to pay. The narrower the target| the higher the costs will be to avoid emissions in one's own country or elsewhere. The net-payers establish the level to which their emissions may rise without interferences| and the net-recipients distribute the available emission rights among themselves according to other criteria. Such ct differentiation of target definitions may not completely eliminate the difficulties of finding a consensus| but at least may reduce them. 2495,1996,2,4,Future availability of water in Egypt: The interaction of global| regional| and basin scale driving forces in the Nile Basin,This paper describes the impacts on the future availability of water in Egypt of driving forces operating at three different scales in the Nile Basin: global (climate change)| regional (land-use change) and river basin (water-resources management). Global and regional driving forces are taken from an integrated model for the assessment of climate change (IMAGE 2.0) and from the results of Global Climate Model experiments. Regional hydrologic models of the largest Nile tributaries are used to calculate the impacts on Main Nile discharge. River-basin driving forces are considered through a set of future water-resource management strategies in Egypt. The combined effects of all three driving forces on future water availability in Egypt range from a large water surplus to a large water deficit by the year 2050. This range of results arises from uncertainties in the integrated modelling approach used and from the different ways Egypt may approach population growth| agricultural policy and human aspirations for greater water use in the future. 4140,1996,4,3,Future ocean uptake of CO2: Interaction between ocean circulation and biology,We discuss the potential variations of the biological pump that can be expected from a change in the oceanic circulation in the ongoing global warming. The biogeochemical model is based on the assumption of a perfect stoichiometric composition (Redfield ratios) of organic material. Upwelling nutrients are transformed into organic particles that sink to the deep ocean according to observed profiles. The physical circulation model is driven by the warming pattern as derived from scenario computations of a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The amplitude of the warming is determined from the varying concentration of atmospheric CO2. The model predicts a pronounced weakening of the thermohaline overturning. This is connected with a reduction of the transient uptake capacity of the ocean. It yields also a more effective removal of organic material from the surface which partly compensates the physical effects of solubility. Both effects are rather marginal for the evolution of atmospheric pCO(2). Running climate models and carbon cycle models separately seems to be justified. 4168,1996,3,4,Generation of methane from paddy fields and cattle in India| and its reduction at source,Methane (CH4) is a saturated organic gas. About 500 Tg yr(-1) methane is generated globally. It is evident that 70% of the total emission have anthropogenic sources. The paddy fields contribute a significant portion of the total methane generated. About 20% of the total methane is generated from the paddy fields. In India| methane efflux rate is negative to 49 mg m(-2) hr(-1). The mean CH4 flux from Indian paddy fields is calculated to be 4.0 Tg yr(-1). Livestock| and in particular ruminants are one of the important sources of methane emission on a global scale. There are two sources of methane emission from live stock: (1) from digestive process of ruminants. (2) from animal wastes. The estimated value of methane emission from digestive process of ruminants in India accounts for 6.47 Tg yr(-1)| and animal wastes accounts for 1.60 Tg yr(-1). Total generation of methane from animals in India is about 1.0 Tg yr(-1). In paddy fields the key of controlling methane emission lies in the control of irrigation water. The methane emission can be decreased drastically if the field is under dry conditions for a few days at the end of tillering. In the case of livestock| reduction of methane emission can be done by (1) increasing the intake of the animal (2) modifying the composition of the diet| (3) eliminating protozoa in rumen| (4) improving fibre digestion efficiency and (5) inhibiting activity of methanogenic bacteria. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4166,1996,3,3,Geoengineering: Could or should we do it?,Schemes to modify large-scale environment systems or to control climate have been seriously proposed for over 50 years| some to (1) increase temperatures in high latitudes| (2) increase precipitation| (3) decrease sea ice| (4) create irrigation opportunities or to offset potential global warming by spreading dust in the stratosphere to reflect away an equivalent amount of solar energy. These and other proposed geoengineering schemes are briefly reviewed from a historical perspective. More recently| many such schemes to advertently modify climate have been proposed as cheaper methods to counteract inadvertent climatic modifications than conventional mitigation techniques such as carbon taxes or pollutant emissions regulations. Whereas proponents argue cost effectiveness| critics of geoengineering argue that there is too much uncertainty to either (1) be confident that any geoengineering scheme would work as planned| or (2) that the many decades of international political stability and cooperation needed for the continuous maintenance of such schemes to offset century long inadvertent efforts is problematic. Moreover| there is potential for transboundary conflicts should negative climatic events occur during geoengineering activities since| given all the large uncertainties| it could not be assured to victims of such events that the schemes were entirely unrelated to their damages. Nevertheless| although I believe it would be irresponsible to implement any large-scale geoengineering scheme until scientific| legal and management uncertainties are substantially narrowed| I do agree that| given the potential for large inadvertent climatic changes now being built into the earth system| more systematic study of the potential for geoengineering is probably needed. 4137,1996,2,3,Geomorphological 'hotspots' and global warming,If global warming takes place over coming decades as a consequence of 'the greenhouse effect' there are some environments which will be particularly sensitive. In this review| those geomorphological situations where change may be especially rapid in onset and marked in degree are examined. 4242,1996,4,4,Glacial isostatic adjustment and the anomalous tide gauge record of eastern North America,SEA-LEVEL variations| as recorded by the global network of tide gauges| represent a rich data set for studying a nide range of natural and anthropogenic phenomena| such as the sea-level rise induced by possible global warming| For this purpose| long-term sea-level trends must be corrected for the 'contaminating' effects of continuing glacial isostatic adjustment(1-5) (GIA). The numerical correction procedure has| for sites on the east coast of North America| yielded a set of highly anomalous sea-level rates characterized by systematic geographical trends(2|4|5). We demonstrate that these trends are a consequence of inadequacies in the previous 'standard' numerical prediction for GIA| In particular| we find that the well-known trends in the GIA-corrected tide gauge rates are eliminated if the lower-mantle viscosity of the Earth model used in the GIA prediction is increased. This result obviates the need to explain the anomalous trend as a manifestation of Gulf Stream ocean circulation(4) or neotectonic processes(2). 4104,1996,2,4,Glacier monitoring for climate change detection in Nunavut,Nunavut contains approximately 75% of Canada's total glacierized area. The high arctic ice caps have received the most consistent monitoring| whereas glaciers on Baffin Island have been monitored for shorter intervals since the 1960s. Although mass balance data for selected Baffin glaciers show no clear trend over the monitoring period| there appears to be reasonable agreement between summer temperature and annual mass balance. In contrast to global warming trends| the Baffin region has experienced a general cooling over the last 30 years| particularly in winter. The cause of this cooling is not fully understood and its impact on the local ice cover is uncertain. In order to address these issues| mass balance observations should be resumed on a suitable glacier as part of an integrated environmental monitoring program in the region. 2473,1996,2,2,Global change and coral reefs: Impacts on reefs| economies and human cultures,Coral reefs have reconstituted themselves after previous large sea-level variations| and climate changes. For the past 6000 years of unusually stable sea-level| reefs have grown without serious interruptions. During recent decades| however| new stresses threaten localized devastation of many reefs. A new period of global climate change is occurring| stimulated by anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Coral reefs will cope well with predicted sea-level rises of 4.5 cm per decade| but reef islands will not. Higher sea levels will provide corals with greater room for growth across reef flats| but there are no foreseeable mechanisms for reef island growth to keep pace with sea-level rise| therefore many low islands may ultimately become uninhabitable. Climate change will introduce localized variations in weather patterns| but changes to individual reefs cannot be predicted. Reefs on average should cope well with regional climate change| as they have coped with similar previous fluctuations. Air temperature increases of 0.2-0.3 degrees C/decade will induce slower increases in sea-surface temperatures| which may cause localized| or regional increases in coral bleaching. Changes in rainfall will impact on reefs near land masses. Likewise| increased storms and variations in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may stress some reefs| but not others. The greatest impact of climate change will be a synergistic enhancement of direct anthropogenic stresses (excessive sediment and pollution from the land; over-fishing| especially via destructive methods; mining of coral rock and sand; and engineering modifications)| which currently cause most damage to coral reefs. Many of the world's reefs have been degraded and more will be damaged as anthropogenic impacts increase under the 'demophoric' increases in population (demos) and economic (phoric) activity. This biotic and habitat loss will result in severe economic and social losses. Reefs| however| have considerable recovery powers and losses can be minimized by effective management of direct human impacts and reducing indirect threats of global climate change. 4174,1996,4,4,Global surface air temperature in 1995: Return to pre-Pinatubo level,Global surface air temperature has increased about 0.5 degrees C from the minimum of mid-1992| a year after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Both a land-based surface air temperature record and a land-marine temperature index place the meteorological year 1995 at approximately the same level as 1990| previously the warmest year in the period of instrumental data. As El Nino warming was small in 1995| the solar cycle near a minimum| and ozone depletion near record levels| the observed high temperature supports the contention of an underlying global warming trend. The pattern of Northern Hemisphere temperature change in recent decades appears to reflect a change of atmospheric dynamics. 4099,1996,3,4,Global warming and developing countries - The possibility of a solution by accelerating development,There are concerns that the rapid development of the developing countries will hasten global warming and exacerbate resource problems. That is to say| it is quite possible that we cannot solve the North-South problem while at the same time containing global warming and conserving fossil fuels. But this paper attempts to show that| on the contrary| the fast development of these countries might very well bring about a long-term solution of the global warming problem. A model incorporating development stage theory is built and used to calculate by region the world's economic growth| population growth| energy supply and demand| CO2 emissions and other items up to the end of the 21st century. Results indicated that if in 2100 world population is about 10 billion (it was 5.1 billion in 1990)| world GDP is US$200 trillion (1987 prices; it was US$20 trillion in 1990) and CO2 emissions are 10 billion tonnes (carbon equivalent; they were 5.8 billion tonnes in 1990)| there will be fairly good prospects for solving the North-South| fossil fuel exhaustion and global warming problems. Making this scenario happen will require accelerating development of the developing countries so they quickly join the ranks of the developed countries| expediting the shift to renewable energy in the developed countries by imposing carbon taxes| transferring energy saving technologies from the developed to the developing countries| and other efforts. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4215,1996,4,2,Global warming and global dioxide emission: An empirical study,In this paper| the dynamic relationship between global surface temperature (global warming) and global carbon dioxide emission (CO2) is modelled and analyzed by causality and spectral analysis in the time domain and frequency domain| respectively. Historical data of global CO2 emission and global surface temperature anomalies over 129 years from 1860-1988 are used in this study. The causal relationship between the two phenomena is first examined using the Sim and Granger causality test in the time domain after the data series are filtered by ARIMA models. The Granger causal relationship is further scrutinized and confirmed by cross-spectral and multichannel spectral analysis in the frequency domain. The evidence found from both analyses proves that there is a positive causal relationship between the two variables. The time domain analysis suggests that Granger causality exists between global surface temperature and global CO2 emission. Further| CO2 emission causes the change in temperature. The conclusions are further confirmed by the frequency domain analysis| which indicates that the increase in CO2 emission causes climate warming because a high coherence exists between the two variables. Furthermore| it is proved that climate changes happen after an increase in CO2 emission| which confirms that the increase in CO2 emission does cause global warming. (C) 1996 Academic Press Limited 4146,1996,2,4,Global warming and health: A review,The paper looks at the phenomenon of global warming and its potential health effects and outlines a number of plausible response by the health sector in developing countries to its threat. It suggests that the health sector should facilitate an international effort at adressing this challenge| mainly through advocacy| epidemiological surveillance and awareness creation. 4269,1996,2,3,Global warming and the hydrologic cycle,Starting with a review of the basic processes that govern greenhouse warming| we have demonstrated that the hydrologic cycle plays a key role in the heat balance of the Earth's surface-atmosphere system. Through the water and other climatic feedbacks| the hydrologic cycle is shown to be a key factor in the climate's evolution as greenhouse gases continue to build up in the atmosphere. This paper examines the current predictive capability of general circulation models linked with macroscale and landscape-scale hydrologic models that simulate regional and local hydrologic regimes under global warming scenarios| Issues concerning hydrologic model calibration and validation in the context of climate change are addressed herein| It is shown that the natural uncertainty in hydrologic regimes in the present climate introduces a signal-to-noise interpretation problem for discerning greenhouse-induced variations in regional hydrologic regimes. Simulations of river basins by means of macroscale hydrologic models nested within general circulation models have been implemented in a few selected cases. From the perspective of water resources management| such simulations| carried out in detail under greenhouse-warming scenarios in midlatitudinal basins of the United States| predict shorter winter seasons| larger winter floods| drier and more frequent summer weather| and overall enhanced and protracted hydrologic variability. All these predictions point to potentially worsening conditions for flood control| water storage| and water supply in areas of semiarid midlatitudinal climates currently dependent of spring snowmelt. Little information of this type is currently available for other areas of the world. Practice of sound water resources engineering principles ought to be adequate to cope with additional hydrologic uncertainty that might arise from global warming. 4171,1996,2,4,Global warming and the regional persistence of a temperate-zone insect (Tenodera sinensis),Models based on the paleoecological record predict that animals in temperate regions will respond to global warming by migrating poleward to remain within their temperature tolerance ranges. The effect of global warming on invertebrates is of great concern because of their critical role in ecosystem structure and function. Migration poses a problem for many species because of their limited dispersal abilities. The life cycle of a typical temperate zone univoltine insect| Tenodera sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae) is constrained by degree-days per season: too few prevent maturation before the killing frost in the autumn; too many allow egg hatch before a killing frost. We used field and laboratory observations on the life history and ecology of this species to predict the effect of global warming on the regional distribution of this insect by the end of the next century. Based on the simplified| best-case| biological assumptions of our model| the geographical range of TT: sinensis in eastern North America would be compressed toward the northern part of its present contiguous regional distribution. This and other univoltine temperate species with long maturation periods and low vagility could face regional extinction if global warming predictions are accurate. 4222,1996,2,3,Global warming and the species richness of bats in Texas,General circulation models provide predictions for global climate under scenarios of increased atmospheric CO2. Climate change is expected to lead directly to changes in distributions of vegetation associations. Distribution of animals will also change to the extent that animals rely on vegetation for food or shelter. Bat species in Texas appear to be restricted| in part| by the availability of roosts. We used geographic information systems and the Holdridge vegetation-climate association scheme to model the effect of climate change on bat distributions and species richness in Texas. Habitat characteristics for each species were identified from the literature and included vegetation| topography| and availability of caves. We assumed caves and topography to be fixed relative to climate. Vegetation changes were predicted from the Holdridge vegetation-climate association scheme. The redistribution of bats following climate change was predicted based on the new locations of suitable habitat characteristics. Under conditions of global warming tropical forests were predicted to expand into Texas; tree-roosting bats were sensitive to this change in vegetation. Cavity-roosting bats were less affected by changes in vegetation| but| where response was predicted| ranges decline. 4163,1996,2,4,Global warming impacts on lake trout in arctic lakes,Arctic freshwater ecosystems may be sensitive indicators of climatic warming trends because they have relatively few species and simple food webs. Many of these systems are dominated by lake trout| which act as keystone predators. For arctic Alaska Toolik Lake| we have a 16-yr record of physical| chemical| and biological data. Our temperature data show a 3 degrees C increase in mean July epilimnetic temperatures. An individual-based bioenergetics model for young-of-year (YOY) lake trout in the lake was used to examine the effects of climate warming on growth of YOY lake trout. Our simulation models predicted that with a July temperature increase| YOY lake trout would need to consume >8-fold more food (>10-fold with seasonally increased temperatures) to achieve the same end-of-year size as historically surviving YOY lake trout. We have observed no increase in food availability in the lake| and recent analysis shows that primary productivity has actually decreased. If recent changes in the lake foreshadow a long-term trend| our model results suggest that YOY lake trout will not survive their first winter. Such changes| coupled with other current anthropogenic impacts in the arctic| may disrupt lake trout control of the trophic structure in arctic lakes.
4107,1996,4,4,Global warming in a coupled climate model including oceanic eddy-induced advection,The Gent and McWilliams (GM) parameterization for large-scale water transport caused by mesoscale oceanic eddies is introduced into the oceanic component of a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Parallel simulations with and without the GM scheme are performed to examine the effect of this parameterization on model behavior under constant atmospheric CO2 and on the model response to increasing CO2. The control (constant CO2) runs show substantial differences in the oceanic stratification and extent of convection| similar to differences found previously using uncoupled ocean models. The transient (increasing CO2) runs show moderate differences in the rate of oceanic heat sequestration (less in the GM case)| as expected based on passive tracer uptake studies. However| the surface warming is weaker in the GM case| especially over the Southern Ocean| which is contrary to some recent supposition. Reasons for the reduced warming in the GM case are discussed. 4198,1996,3,4,Global warming mitigation strategies,Mitigation strategies have been explored| and these topics will be discussed with emphasis on terrestrial ecosystem sequestration as an illustration of successful research. The use of halophyte horticulture for near-term solution to environmental problems and for food application has been demonstrated and is in commercial production in Mexico and Saudi Arabia. Halophyte horticulture fixes carbon from the atmosphere using desert land areas and features sea water for irrigation. 4279,1996,3,3,Global warming| infrastructure| and land use in the metropolitan New York area - Prevention and response,The metropolitan area of New York| New Jersey and Connecticut is surrounded by an extensive shoreline| portions of which have the highest population density in the country. The shoreline at the same time affords amenities and vulnerabilities to natural and man-made disasters| such as the potential perils of global warming. Predicted changes in sea level attributable to global warming may claim much of the waterfront areas that have been redeveloped for public use over many decades. Changes in shoreline populations and economic activity induced by global warming necessarily affect the entire metropolitan area. Infrastructure plays a critical role both in protecting existing human settlements and in changing settlement patterns to reduce their contribution to global warming in the future. This paper addresses the vulnerability of infrastructure to the projected or estimated conditions (primarily sea level change) associated with global warming and the extent to which infrastructure can be modified to reduce its vulnerability and consequently| that of the land uses it serves (see Miller'). Two approaches or scenarios are addressed. I) In the short term| measures can be taken that are more responsive and reactive. That is| given that global warming will occur| those measures would reduce the likelihood that the immediate consequences of global warming would be felt by the area's population and economic activity. 2) Over a longer time period| the key issue is whether infrastructure changes such as relocation| redesign| retrofit| or renovation can be accomplished in a way that reduces the contribution of infrastructure and land use activities to global warming. Examples of such reduction strategies are energy conservation and/or emission reduction. In addressing these two perspectives| the focus will be upon infrastructure and its relationship to land use. Changes that might occur in the area's land uses directly in reaction to global warming (not associated with the services the area's infrastructure provides) or for other reasons| are not addressed here. These approaches or scenarios operate in the context of anticipated impacts or consequences of global warming. Therefore| before addressing the infrastructure and land use dimensions| the impacts of global warming (in terms of sea level rise) that are assumed will be briefly set forth.
4249,1996,4,3,Greenhouse gas emissions from the use of primary energy in forest operations and long-distance transportation of timber in Finland,In Finland in 1993 the greenhouse gas emissions caused by machinery used in silvicultural and forest improvement work| wood harvesting| and timber transportation were 424.2 Gg carbon dioxide (CO2) (Gg = gigagram = 10(9) g)| 10.6 Mg nitrous oxide (Mg = megagram = 10(6) g)| 3.5 Gg carbon monoxide| 31.5 Mg methane| 5.6 Gg nitrogen oxide| and 0.7 Gg non-methane volatile organic compounds. When emissions were converted into equal units as global warming potential in terms of CO2| the warming effects on a 20-year time frame equalled 1310 Gg as CO2 and on a 100-year time frame 669 Gg as CO2. The proportion of silvicultural and forest improvement work of the total emission was 8 per cent| cutting of timber 13 per cent| haulage 18 per cent| long-distance transportation 57 per cent| and transportation of machinery 4 per cent. The emissions caused by the use of primary energy in forestry seem to be small compared with the amount of carbon in harvested timber| which was 30 300 Gg in terms of CO2. 2530,1996,3,2,Greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: Preliminary results from the US Country Studies Program,Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)| developing and transition countries are eventually required to report greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventories and response (mitigation) options. The United States (US) and other donors are providing financial and technical support for climate change country studies to help meet their needs under the UNFCCC. Technical assistance to complete mitigation assessments includes training of analysts| sharing of contemporary tools and assessment techniques| implementation of information-sharing workshops| and an exchange program for analysts. Country analysts have access to more than 25 analytical tools to help them complete their GHG mitigation assessments. Preliminary assessments suggest that GHG stabilization strategies should focus on fossil-fuel combustion| the primary source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions| and on forest management to sequester or conserve carbon (C). In selected countries| mitigation of methane (CH4) emissions from rice paddy| livestock production| and waste management are also considered relevant response options. Strengthening of human and institutional capacity to cope with global climate change issues will provide developing and transition countries with a sustained basis for meeting the goals of the UNFCCC. 2500,1996,4,3,Greenhouse warming versus aerosol cooling in the context of global climate change,Since it is doubtless true that the global greenhouse warming may be compensated for by aerosol cooling to a considerable extent| it is important to analyze the reliability of relevant estimates because the assumption of pure scattering aerosols is far from reality. The results of complex CAENEX and GAAREX field programmes conducted in Russia have been considered in this context to demonstrate the significance of aerosol absorption. Also in this context| the case of Arctic haze deserves special attention. Another important aspect is the necessity to take into account the indirect aerosol impact on climate via changes in cloud optical properties. Climate change is a product of interaction between internally generated and externally induced variations. Hence - difficulties involved in early detection of anthropogenic climate signals. A potential methodology for solving such problems has been discussed. Since global climate modelling: is stilt at an early stage of its development| the decisive role belongs to climate observations. Optimization of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) with regard to combined use of conventional and satellite observations to solve climate dynamics problems in the context of global change is a must of current climate studies| Various aspects of this optimization have been considered. 4126,1996,2,4,High-temperature tolerance of Artemisia tridentata and Potentilla gracilis under a climate change manipulation,Leaf tolerance to high temperatures| as determined by electrolyte leakage and chlorophyll a fluorescence| was compared for Artemisia tridentata (Asteraceae)| a widespread shrub of the Great Basin| Colorado Plateau| and western slope of the Rocky Mountains| and Potentilla gracilis (Rosaceae)| a herbaceous forb common to high-elevation meadows of the western United States. Species-specific and treatment-specific differences in leaf temperature| high-temperature tolerance and chlorophyll a fluorescence from photosystem II were compared| to test the hypothesis that plants at ecosystem borders will exhibit species-specific responses to climate change. Measurements were made for plants ex posed to a climate change warming manipulation on a major ecosystem border at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory| Colorado| United States| in July and Au gust 1995. In July| daily maximal leaf temperatures were significantly higher for P. gracilis than for A. tridentata. Leaf temperatures were slightly lower in August than July for leaves of both species| on control and heated plots| despite the fact that daily maximum air temperatures were not significantly different for the two months. High-temperature tolerance was determined for leaves treated for 1 h at temperatures ranging from 15 degrees C to 65 degrees C. LT(50) was approximately 46 degrees C for both species on control plots| but was 43 degrees C for leaves of both species from heated plots| contrary to the predictions of the hypothesis. No shift in LT(50) (acclimation) was apparent between July and August. Changes in chlorophyll a fluorescence from photosystem II (F-V/F-M) were used to characterize the photosynthetic response to high temperatures. For both A. tridentata and P. gracilis in July| F-V/F-M was about 0.7| but decreased for temperatures above 40 degrees C. The results suggest that plant responses to global warming at ecosystem borders may be influenced by factors other than leaf-level physiological tolerance to elevated temperatures. 4277,1996,5,4,Holocene evolution of the River Bann estuary and adjacent coast| Northern Ireland,From a variety of published and unpublished geomorphological and stratigraphical information| supported by C-14 dates| an attempt is made to reconstruct the Holocene evolution of the estuary of the River Bann and the adjacent stretch of coastline| Northern Ireland. Submerged and buried peat beds have yielded early Holocene pollen assemblages and C-14 dates that demonstrate a low stand of relative sea-level (RSL) at this time. Feat formation was terminated by the deposition of sands and diatomaceous muds| reflecting RSL rise as a result of both eustatic controls and a declining level of isostatic recovery. Holocene maximum RSL occurred at c. 6000 years sp and reached +2 to +3 m OD (Belfast). A gravel barrier developed at the estuary mouth and provided the anchor point for later aeolian dune development. Along the adjacent coast| basalt shore platforms were either formed or modified| having been within the range of effective wave erosion since the early Holocene. Relative sea-level then fell rapidly. By c. 5500 years sp| aeolian dunes had formed below OD at one site within the estuary. By c. 4000 years sp| the primary elements of the geomorphology of the Bann estuary were in place. Since that time| several phases of aeolian dune and sand sheet development are apparent from the occurrence of buried soils and archaeological materials| but the primary mechanisms controlling dune stability/instability phases are not known with certainty. Periods of temporary supra-elevated water levels| probably resulting from storm conditions| have also been recognized in the coastal sedimentary record; interbedded pear and silty sand with rounded clasts forms part of a terrace sequence at +6 to +8 m OD. Radiocarbon dates suggest that several such events occurred between c. 2300 and 1700 years sp| as pear was accumulating. Recent changes include the construction of estuary mouth training walls and river dredging. Resulting from these activities| aeolian dunes have extended their area| and increased wave erosion within the estuary has been recorded. Human activities and any future RSL rise| consequent upon global warming| seem likely to lead to continuing instability. 4200,1996,3,3,IEA greenhouse gas R&D programme: Full fuel cycle studies,The IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme is an international collaboration supported by 16 countries and several industrial organisations. Its purpose is to evaluate technologies for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. In the first 3 years of work| the programme concentrated on CO2 emissions from power stations. The main types of power plant and various technologies for capturing CO2 were examined. Storage and utilisation options for CO2 were assessed. The work culminated in the life cycle assessment reported here of 3 fossil fuel based power generation cycles in which CO2 was captured and stored. For each fuel cycle| one natural gas and two coal based| a full 'cradle-to-grave' analysis of emissions was made. A fundamental objective was to establish a consistent and transparent methodology which could form the basis for comparing technical responses to the possibility of global warming. The paper discusses the logic behind the assumptions| and limitations in the data and methodolgy. The uncertainty of much of the data on environmental externalities is recognised and a distinction made between lack of scientific data and the influence of value judgements. External costs that were quantified are small relative to the private costs. 2528,1996,2,3,Impact of freshwater on a subarctic coastal ecosystem under seasonal sea ice (southeastern Hudson Bay| Canada) .1. Interannual variability and predicted global warming influence on river plume dynamics and sea ice,Analysis of sea ice cover| runoff and air temperature observations in Hudson Bay shows marked interannual variability. This variability is thought to play a major role in determining overall productivity of the coastal ecosystem by changes to river plume extent| under-ice light conditions and nutrient levels during spring. Extensive field work off the Great Whale River in southeastern Hudson Bay has shown the importance of freshwater discharge| sea ice cover and meteorological forcing on the production of under-ice microalgae and the success of first feeding in fish larvae. Recent global climate model (GCM) results for a doubling of present atmospheric carbon dioxide indicate increases of both air temperature and precipitation in the Hudson Bay area. Predictions based on GCM results are used to estimate future changes to the sea ice and runoff regime. Sea ice breakup in the offshore is predicted to occur about one month earlier than presently. Estimates of the spring freshet in the Great Whale River indicate it will also advance by approximately one month. Onset of the spring freshet will occur about one month before Hudson Bay ice breakup| similar to present. A predicted reduction of about 35% in maximum sea ice thickness will lead to an increase in the ice-ocean interface irradiance and a decrease in melt water input to the Hudson Bay surface waters. These results are used in a discussion of potential effects of global climate change on northern coastal marine environments. 4252,1996,2,4,Impact of global warming on potato late blight: Risk| yield loss and control,The impact of climate warming on yield losses caused by potato late blight and on the need for disease control was studied by constructing models for timing late blight epidemics and a model of potato growth constrained by late blight. Empirical models predicting the date of planting and emergence of potato were based on thermal time| and a model predicting the date of late blight outbreak was based on thermal time on rainy days. Experiments were conducted over 3 years under ambient and elevated (+3 degrees C) temperatures to obtain parameter values for the growth model. Potato emergence is predicted to occur at 631 degree days accumulated above 0 degrees C after the 16-day running mean temperature in spring exceeds 0 degrees C. A blight outbreak is predicted to occur when the effective temperature sum accumulated above 8 degrees C after potato emergence| on days with at least 0.1 mm of precipitation| achieves 156 degree days. In the prediction of the outbreak the maximum daily accumulation of temperature is limited to 10 degree days. A preliminary sensitivity study carried out at one site in southern Finland suggests that over a range of 1 to 3 degrees C warming| the period during which late blight needs to be controlled by fungicide applications would be 10-20 days longer per 1 degrees C of warming. The increase in yield loss of unprotected crops would be of the same magnitude as the increase in yield potential| around 2 t/ha of dry matter per 1 degrees C of warming. 4280,1996,2,4,Impact of global warming on water resources - Implications for New York City and the New York Metropolitan Region,Global warming effects-and the changes in atmospheric chemistry that produce global warming-may significantly change the demands placed on the water supply and wastewater systems of New York City and the New York Metropolitan Region and these changes may in turn significantly change the demands placed by those systems on regional land use and finances. Given the uncertainties-uncertainties about the nature| magnitude and timing of the changes-global warming sets a profound challenge for public policy: how to initiate and sustain a timely| nonwasteful “adaptive management” response.
4191,1996,2,4,Impact of iceberg scouring on polar benthic habitats,In situ photographs and videos demonstrate that iceberg grounding in both polar regions causes considerable damage to benthic communities. Sessile organisms are eradicated and pioneer species begin to grow in high abundances on the devastated substratum. A preliminary quantitative analysis shows that the sea floor in the Antarctic and Arctic areas of investigation is disturbed by icebergs statistically once every 230 and 53 yr| respectively. Due to the extreme slow growth of many species| particularly in Antarctica| areas frequently disturbed in this manner are likely to be characterised by a continuous natural fluctuation between destruction and recovery. Increased perturbation by iceberg groundings through predicted global warming will result in considerable impairment of this environment. 4258,1996,3,4,Imperata economics and policy,Should policymakers - or anyone else - care about millions of ha of Imperata grasslands? The answer depends on the balance between costs of conversion to other uses and the net benefits produced in economic growth| poverty alleviation| and protection of the environment. The first section on Imperata economics sets up the analytical framework to address this question and draws on the wider development economics literature to consider whether growth and poverty alleviation are conflicting or complementary objectives. Although evidence is limited| it suggests smallholder-based agroforestry could provide the same economic growth with greater poverty alleviation than large-scale forestry estates. There is| however| no substitute for project appraisal for specific settings. The second section on Imperata policy reviews whether policy distortions and market failures provide a sufficient rationale for direct policy intervention to promote tree planting on Imperata grasslands. Estimates of imputed values of carbon sequestration to alleviate global warming are presented for Acacia mangium and rubber agroforestry. The conclusion summarizes the policy research agenda and examines the desirability and feasibility of policy intervention to promote carbon sequestration through Imperata grassland conversion to tree-based systems. 4231,1996,5,4,Implications for the creation of warm saline deep water: Late Paleocene reconstructions and global climate model simulations,A global warming trend began during the late Paleocene that culminated in the early Eocene with the highest global temperatures of the Cenozoic| We have reconstructed late Paleocene surficial boundary conditions and modeled atmospheric conditions using the Goddard Institute for Spate Studies general circulation model version II (GISS GCM II). These experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that warm saline deep water formed during the late Paleocene and to understand atmospheric circulation near the beginning of a period of global warming. The warming is attributed primarily to increased sea surface temperatures at high latitudes. The sensitivity of the climate to ocean temperature was tested using two sea surface temperature distributions| each delimited latitudinally by oxygen isotope values| but with different east-west gradients. The simulations discussed here contain several features unique among warm climate experiments. The first experiment (P-1) used latitudinally constant (zonal) sea surface temperatures| The zonally distributed sea surface temperatures strengthen the general circulation of the atmosphere. In particular| Hadley Cell circulation is intensified| leading to extremes of precipitation in the equatorial region and extreme evaporation across subtropical oceans| The unusual results prompted a second experiment with modern east-west sea surface temperature gradients superimposed and referred to as P-Gradient (P-Grad). The east-west gradients in the sea surface temperature field exert a strong influence on the general atmospheric circulation| but the extreme zonality prevails| Under extreme zonal conditions it is possible to create a model where evaporation is in excess of precipitation by as much as 3 mm/day. If this occurred in restricted areas in a generally warmer ocean| such as the late Paleocene eastern Tethys Ocean and parts of the South Atlantic Ocean| it should be possible to create very saline water| which could become a component in warm saline deep water formation. 4151,1996,4,4,Implications of a new eddy parameterization for ocean models,A new parameterization of eddies in a coarse resolution ocean model yields deep ocean salinities and temperatures that are significantly closer to observations than with previous parameterizations. This is achieved because dense water is able to flow over sills and into the deep ocean without being diluted with the surrounding water. In addition| the depth to which surface-induced tracers penetrate in the Southern Ocean is now realistic. This depth is overestimated by previous ocean models| including those used to estimate global warming. Adding the new eddy parameterizaton to coupled atmosphere-ocean models is expected to yield greater global warming. 4125,1996,2,4,Implications of vagrant southeastern vireos and warblers in California,All unprecedented influx of vagrant vireos and wood-warblers into California occurred in the spring and summer of 1992. The seven species involved (White-eyed Vireo [Vireo griseus]| Yellow-throated Vireo [V. flavifrons]| Northern Parula [Parula americana]| Yellow-throated Warbler [Dendroica dominica]| Worm-eating Warbler [Helmitheros vermivorus]| Kentucky Warbler [Oporornis formosus]| and Hooded Warbler [Wilsonia citrina]) all breed primarily in the southeastern United States| suggesting a common factor for the influx. Furthermore| all seven species have been recorded in California with increasing frequency over the past two decades| suggesting a common trend in the populations of these species. We examined five hypotheses that could explain the increasing number of California records of these species: (1) observer bias| (2) pesticide-caused misorientation| (3) shifts in winter range| (4) anomalous weather conditions (including global warming and El Nino-Southern Oscillation)| and (5) range expansions into the western United States and/or dramatic population increases in the southeastern United States. We found little or no support for the first three hypotheses. Anomalous weather conditions probably accounted for the magnitude of the 1992 influx| but the final hypothesis is needed to explain the overall trend. Although available data are not sufficient to distinguish between summer distributional shifts and population increases within the ''normal'' breeding ranges of these species| the possibility of westward range expansion is intriguing. 2511,1996,4,4,Improved method of exponential sum fitting of transmissions to describe the absorption of atmospheric gases,For climate modeling and atmospheric research| such as investigations of global climate change| remote sensing of cloud properties| or the missing absorption problem in clouds| it is most important to describe adequately the absorption of radiation by atmospheric gases. An improved method for the exponential sum fitting of transmissions (ESFT) is developed to approximate this absorption accurately. Exponentials are estimated separately for any number of atmospheric-model layers| considering the pressure and temperature dependence of the absorption lines directly. As long as the error of the fit exceeds a limit of tolerance| the number of considered exponential terms is successively increased. The accuracy of the method presented yields a root-mean-square error of less than 0.03% for any atmospheric-model layer| whereas the commonly used one-layer techniques gain errors of up to 3% in the transmission functions for the upper layers. The commonly used ESFT methods consider only one atmospheric layer and introduce the pressure and temperature effects for the other model layers afterwards. 4270,1996,3,3,Incorporating investment uncertainty into greenhouse policy models,Greenhouse gas policy decisions require comprehensive understanding of atmospheric| economic| and social impacts. Many studies have considered the effects of atmospheric uncertainty in global warming| but economic uncertainties have received less analysis. We consider a key component of economic uncertainty: the return on investments in new technologies. Using a mathematical programming model| we show that ignoring uncertainty in technology investment policy may lead to decreases as great as 2 percent in overall expected economic activity in the U.S. with even higher losses in possible future scenarios. These results indicate that both federal and private technology investment policies should be based on models explicitly incorporating uncertainty. 4159,1996,2,4,Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements,THROUGHOUT the Northern Hemisphere the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide rises in winter and declines in summer| mainly in response to the seasonal growth in land vegetation(1-4). In the far north the amplitude of the seasonal cycle| peak to trough| is between 15 and 20 parts per million by volume(5). The annual amplitude diminishes southwards to about 3 p.p.m. near the Equator| owing to the diminishing seasonality of plant activity towards the tropics. In spite of atmospheric mixing processes| enough spatial variability is retained in the seasonal cycle of CO2 to reveal considerable regional detail in seasonal plant activity(6). Here we report that the annual amplitude of the seasonal CO2 cycle has increased by 20%| as measured in Hawaii| and by 40% in the Arctic| since the early 1960s. These increases are accompanied by phase advances of about 7 days during the declining phase of the cycle| suggesting a lengthening of the growing season. In addition| the annual amplitudes show maxima which appear to reflect a sensitivity to global warming episodes that peaked in 1981 and 1990. We propose that the amplitude increases reflect increasing assimilation of CO2 by land plants in response to climate changes accompanying recent rapid increases in temperature. 4266,1996,2,4,Increasing night temperature can reduce seed set and potential yield of tropical rice,The effect of increasing day temperature on reducing seed set in rice is well established| but little is known concerning the impact of increasing night temperature relative to constant day temperature. Recent work suggests that anticipated global warming may be uneven| with a significant increase in night compared to day temperature. Sun-lit| outdoor environment chambers were used to determine the impact of increasing night temperatures at two constant day temperatures (29/21| 29/25| 29/29 degrees C and 33/25| 33/29 and 33/33 degrees C) as well as increasing day/night temperature (29/21| 33/25 and 36/29 degrees C) on growth and yield of rice (cv. IR 72). Increasing day/night temperature to 36/29 degrees C resulted in a significant reduction in both plant biomass and grain yield at harvest. At a constant day temperature of 29 degrees C| increasing night temperature did not significantly alter growth or yield; however| increasing night temperature at a day temperature of 33 degrees C (8 h duration) resulted in a significant decline in grain yield| primarily due to reduced seed set. The decline in grain yield at 33 degrees C with increasing night time temperature was similar to that observed at a day/night temperature of 36/29 degrees C. Data from this experiment suggest that higher night time temperatures per se could increase the susceptibility of rice to sterility with a subsequent reduction in seed set and grain yield. 4108,1996,5,4,Influence of late-Holocene climate on northern Rocky Mountain mammals,An exceptionally rich paleontological site containing thousands of mammalian fossils and well-dated with 18 radiocarbon samples provides evidence of late-Holocene ecological response to climatic change in northern Yellowstone National Park| Wyoming. The mammalian fauna| composed of 10|597 identified specimens| shows surprising affinity to the local habitat with little evidence of long-distance transport of faunal elements| thus revealing the faithfulness of a fossil site to the community from which it is derived. The mammals illustrate ecological sensitivity to a series of mesic to xeric climatic excursions in the sagebrush-grassland ecotone during the past 3200 yr| From 3200 cal yr B.P. to a maximum of 1100 cal yr B.P.| the species composition of mammals indicates wetter conditions than today. Beginning about 1200 cal yr B.P.| the fauna becomes more representative of xeric conditions with maxima in xeric-indicator taxa and minima in mesic-indicator taxa| concordant with the Medieval Warm Period (circa 1000 Co 650 yr B.P.). Cooler| wetter conditions which prevailed for most of the Little Ice Age (700 to 100 yr B.P.) in general correspond to a return to a more mesic mammalian fauna. A warm period within the Little Ice Age is documented by a xeric fauna. These data show that mammalian ecological sensitivity to climatic change over this intermediate time scale holds promise for predictions about the impacts of future global Warming. (C) 1996 University of Washington. 4214,1996,2,4,Influences on formation and dissipation of high arctic fogs during summer and autumn and their interaction with aerosol,Radiosondes established that the air in the near surface mixed layer was very frequently near saturation during the International Arctic Ocean Expedition 1991 which must have been a large factor in the frequent occurrence of fogs. Fogs were divided into groups of summer| transition and winter types depending on whether the advecting air| the ice surface or sea surface respectively was warmest and the source of heat. The probability of summer and transition fogs increased at air temperatures near 0 degrees C while winter fogs had a maximum probability of occurrence at air temperatures between -5 and -10 degrees C. Advection from the open sea was the primary cause of the summer group| the probability of occurrence being high during the Ist day's travel and appreciable until the end of 3 days. Transition fogs reached its maximum probability of formation on the 4th day of advection. Radiation heating and cooling of the ice both appeared to have influenced summer and transition fogs| while winter fogs were strongly Favoured by the long wave radiation loss at clear sky conditions. Another cause of winter fogs was the heat and moisture source of open leads. Wind speed was also a factor in the probability of fog formation| summer and transition fogs being favoured by winds between 2 and 6 ms(-1)| while winter fogs were favoured by wind speeds of only 1 ms(-1). Concentrations of fog drops were generally lower than those of the cloud condensation nuclei active at 0.1%| having a median of 3 cm(-3). While a well-defined modal diameter of 20-25 mu m was found in all fogs| a second transient mode at about 100 mu m was also frequently observed. The observation of fog bows with supernumerary arcs pointed to the existence of fog droplets as large as 200-300 mu m in diameter at fog top. It is suggested that the large drops originated from droplets grown near the fog top and were brought to near the surface by an overturning of the fog layer. Shear induced wave motions and roll vortices were found to cause perturbations in the near-surface layer and appeared to influence fog formation and dissipation. The low observed droplet concentration in fogs limits their ability to modify aerosol number concentrations and size distributions| the persistent overlying stratus being a more likely site for effective interactions. It is suggested that variations in the fog formation described in this paper may be a useful indicator of circulation changes in the arctic consequent upon a global warming. 4197,1996,3,4,Initiatives to respond to climate change concerns,Concerns over the potential impacts of enhanced global warming and climate change have led to a number of initiatives related to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases| notably from the energy sector. The most significant is the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change signed in Rio in 1992. Others include the Climate Technology Initiative| announced at the FCCC Conference of the Parties in Berlin in April 1995 and endorsed by 23 OECD/IEA countries and the European Commission. 4223,1996,2,4,Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change: Lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS),This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada-the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan| the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin| located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base| and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management| sustainability of native lifestyles| economic development opportunities (agriculture| forestry| tourism| etc.)| sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a ''family of integrators'' into the study framework| and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies. 2538,1996,2,4,Interaction of flooding and salinity stress on baldcypress (Taxodium distichum),Coastal wetlands of the southeastern United States are threatened by increases in flooding and salinity as a result of both natural processes and man-induced hydrologic alterations. Furthermore| global climate change scenarios suggest that| as a consequence of rising sea levels| much larger areas of coastal wetlands may be affected by flooding and salinity in the next 50 to 100 years. In this paper| we review studies designed to improve our ability to predict and ameliorate the impacts of increased flooding and salinity stress on baldcypress (Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.)| which is a dominant species of many coastal forested wetlands. Specifically| we review studies on species-level responses to flooding and salinity stress| alone and in combination| we summarize two studies on intraspecific variation in response to flooding and salinity stress| we analyze the physiological mechanisms thought to be responsible for the interaction between flooding and salinity stress| and we discuss the implications for coastal wetland loss and the prospects for developing salt-tolerant lines of baldcypress. 4118,1996,2,4,Investigating trends in vegetable crop response to increasing temperature associated with climate change,A thermogradient tunnel| 8.6 m wide and 31.9 m long| generating temperatures ranging from ambient at one end to ambient plus approximately 4 degrees C at the other| was used to assess the potential impact of increased temperatures associated with global warming on the growth of Iceberg lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.)| leek (Allium ampeloprasum L.) and Roscoff cauliflower (Brassica oleracea var. botrytis L.) crops| Optimum mean temperatures for head weight in Iceberg lettuce and trimmed weight in leeks were identified as 12 degrees C and 15.7 degrees C| respectively| corresponding to temperature rises of 2 degrees C and 2.4 degrees C above the average ambient temperature during the experiments. Increased temperatures gave consistently earlier maturity of lettuce| delayed cauliflower curd initiation by up to 49 days and increased the final number of leaves in cauliflower by 36. The implications of these effects are discussed in relation to global warming. 2472,1996,5,4,Isotopic variability in arctic precipitation as a climatic indicator,Preliminary data are examined from a project in which the variability in the isotopic composition of precipitation across northern Canada and the implications for paleoclimatic reconstruction are examined. The data set shows a geographic variability of about 6 parts per thousand in isotopic composition of precipitation across the Canadian Arctic| roughly double the temporal variability seen in the ice core records from the last 10|000 years. The seasonal variability in average monthly delta(18)O values from the arctic stations in 1991 was as much as 26 parts per thousand. A snow and firn core collected on Bylot Island had a range of 14.8 parts per thousand| compared to the range in average monthly precipitation of 25.6 parts per thousand covering the same time period. This difference in the observed seasonal range of values is the result of processes operating in the snow pack| such as vapor movement and molecular diffusion| and the strategy used in sampling the core. The results indicate that a much better understanding of the geographic and seasonal variation in the delta(18)O values of precipitation is required before a direct linkage between the isotope records in ice cores and global climate change can be determined. Using recently developed radiocarbon dating techniques| buried glacier ice that has been preserved in permafrost may be able to provide the greater spatial and temporal detail required. 4181,1996,3,4,Japan's strategy in technology development for mitigating global warming,Japan is a country much concerned with global environmental issues. This paper describes Japan's prospect on energy and CO2 emission|together with prospects of other developed countries. Then the needs for developing long term innovative technologies are demonstrated with a few examples of technologies being developed under MITI R&D program. 2475,1996,3,3,Joint implementation: Biodiversity and greenhouse gas offsets,One of the most pressing environmental issues today is the possibility that projected increases in global emissions of greenhouse gases from increased deforestation| development| and fossil-fuel combustion could significantly alter global climate patterns. Under the terms of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change| signed in Rio de Janeiro during the June 1992 Earth Summit| the United States and other industrialized countries committed to balancing greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels in the year 2000. Included in the treaty is a provision titled ''Joint Implementation|'' whereby industrialized countries assist developing countries in jointly modifying long-term emission trends| either through emission reductions or by protecting and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks (carbon sequestration). The US Climate Action Plan| signed by President Clinton in 1993| calls for voluntary climate change mitigation measures by various sectors| and the action plan included a new program| the US Initiative on Joint implementation. Wisconsin Electric decided to invest in a JI project because its concept encourages creative| cost-effective solutions to environmental problems through partnering| international cooperation| and innovation. The project chosen| a forest preservation and management effort in Belize| will sequester more than five million tons of carbon dioxide over a 40-year period| will become economically self-sustaining after ten years| and will have substantial biodiversity benefits. 4224,1996,4,4,Laboratory technique for the measurement of thermal-emission spectra of greenhouse gases: CFC-12,A new technique has been developed to make possible the laboratory study of the infrared-emission spectra of gases of atmospheric interest. The thermal-emission spectra are in local thermodynamic equilibrium|just as they are in the atmosphere| and are not chemiluminescent. Demonstration results obtained by the use of this new technique are presented for dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12) at a pressure of 0.5 Torr in a cell with a path length of 5 cm. The measured cell spectra have been compared with simulations with the FASCD3P radiation code. The measurements of the emission spectra of radiatively active gases may be important for the atmospheric greenhouse effect and global warming. (C) 1996 Optical Society of America 2503,1996,4,4,Land use and cover in ecological economics,A basic premise of ecological economics is that the world economy is embedded in and dependent upon Earth's ecosystem. Because land is a basic source of mass and energy throughput in all terrestrial ecosystems| land use and cover represents an integrating element in ecological economics. We have developed a global model that captures this concept. We illustrate this concept's usefulness by showing how global changes in climate| human populations| and international trade policies might affect tropical forests. Results from our scenarios indicate that such changes would likely have adverse effects on the health and integrity of tropical forest ecosystems. Results from our scenarios also indicate that forest depletion in Southeast Asia can be correlated with numerous economic indicators. Whether the correlation with a particular economic variable is positive or negative depends on the global change scenario. This merely reflects the fact that interactions between economic and ecological phenomena are complex. Modeling capabilities can be expanded by adding economic and ecological detail| including more material on throughput| and developing methods for simulating dynamic analyses. 2488,1996,5,4,Late Quaternary sediment dating and quantification of lateral sediment redistribution applying Th-230(ex): A study from the eastern Atlantic sector of the southern ocean,High-resolution records of the natural radionuclide Th-230 were measured in sediments from the eastern Atlantic sector of the Antarctic circumpolar current to obtain a detailed reconstruction of the sedimentation history of this key area for global climate change during the late Quaternary. High-resolution dating rests on the assumption that the Th-230(ex) flux to the sediments is constant. Short periods of drastically increased sediment accumulation rates (up to a factor of 8) were determined in the sediments of the Antarctic zone during the climate optima at the beginning of the Holocene and the isotope stage 5e. By comparing expected and measured accumulation rate of Th-230(ex)| lateral sediment redistribution was quantified and vertical particle rain rates originating from the surface water above were calculated. We show that lateral contributions locally were up to 6.5 times higher than the vertical particle rain rates. At other locations only 15% of the expected vertical particle rain rate were deposited. 4154,1996,5,3,Latest paleocene benthic foraminiferal extinction and environmental changes at Tawanui| New Zealand,A major extinction of intermediate-water (500-1000 m) benthic foraminiferal species coincided with a major decrease in delta(13)C (2.8 parts per thousand) of terrestrial organic matter (n-C-29 alkane) and delta(34)S (20 parts per thousand) of whole rock sulfide in a continuous siltstone sequence in the Tawanui Section (4S degrees S paleolatitude) along the Akitio River| southeastern North Island| New Zealand| in the middle part of the uppermost Paleocene nannofossil zone (CP8). The benthic extinction (25% of species) occurred over similar to 3 kyr at similar to 55.5 Ma. Increases in kaolinite/illite and kaolinite/smectite ratios and in terrestrial organic carbon percentages started similar to 3 kyr before the major benthic extinctions| lasted over similar to 40 kyr| and probably reflect warmer climate and increased rainfall. The productivity of planktonic foraminifera and calcareous nannoplankton decreased similar to 3 kyr prior to the major extinctions and recovered at the time of benthic extinctions. These events that started similar to 3 kyr before the extinction can be best explained by warming| increased rainfall| reduced salinity of surface waters| and increased influence of warm saline deep water (WSDW). Benthic foraminiferal oxygen indices indicate a strong decrease in dissolved oxygen levels within the intermediate water from low oxic (1.5-3.0 mL/L O-2) to suboxic (0.3-1.5 mL/L O-2) conditions coinciding with the benthic extinctions. Increases in total organic carbon (TOC) and in the hydrocarbon-generating potential of kerogen (measured as the hydrogen index (HI)) agree with the interpretation of decreased dissolved oxygen levels of the intermediate water. The lowest oxygen conditions lasted similar to 40 kyr and coincided with a decrease in calcareous benthic foraminiferal productivity| highest TOC levels| and lowest delta(13)C of terrestrial organic carbon. Dominant formation of WSDW or sluggish intermediate-water circulation caused by warming and high rainfall in high-latitude areas most likely led to the 3-kyr time lag between events on land and in surface waters preceeding the extinction and the development of dysaerobia in the sea| coinciding with the major benthic extinction and decrease in delta(13)C and delta(34)S in New Zealand. Global warming of deep and intermediate waters may have caused decomposition of methane hydrate in sediments| resulting in a strongly decreased delta(13)C of marine carbonates| promoting dysaerobia in the ocean| and warming global climate by increased methane concentrations in the atmosphere. Upwelling of WSDW| occurring soon after it became dominant in high-latitude areas| is likely responsible for the recovery of normal salinity and the concomitant recovery of planktonic foraminifera and calcareous nannoplankton productivity in high-latitude surface waters. Minor benthic foraminiferal extinctions (9% of species) occurred similar to 40 kyr after the major extinctions| lasted less than or equal to similar to 6 kyr| and coincided with the initiation of environmental recovery. 2480,1996,2,4,Latitudinal variation in sugar maple fine root respiration,A changing global climate may impact the respiration of fine roots. While many models adjust fine root respiration as temperature increases| the influence of soil nutrient availability and the possibility that root respiration may be adapted to local climate are often not addressed. Rates of fine root respiration were measured in four sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) forests located along a latitudinal gradient in Michigan. Root respiration was measured as O-2 consumption at temperatures ranging from 6 to 24 degrees C on excised fine root samples in early September| October| and November of 1994. Root respiration increased exponentially with temperature with an average Q(10) of 2.7; there were no differences in Q(10) among sites. However| there were differences among sites in mean respiration rate at a given temperature. This site effect did not indicate ecotypic adaptation to local climate| but rather reflected fine root N concentration. Respiration at a given temperature was consistently higher in roots with higher N concentrations| and higher root N concentrations always occurred at sites having greater N mineralization rates. Results suggest increases in soil temperature could significantly alter root respiration C flux at these sites| as could changes in site N availability associated with chronic N deposition or altered N mineralization resulting from global climate change. 4152,1996,3,3,Lifecycle assessment and economic evaluation of recycling: A case study,Recycling is widely assumed to be environmentally beneficial| although the collection| sorting and processing of materials into new products also entails significant environmental impacts. This study compares the relative environmental impacts of a recycling system (incorporating the kerbside collection of recyclable materials and their subsequent use by manufacturers)| with a waste disposal system (in which the waste is disposed to landfill and primary raw materials are used in manufacture)| using the technique of lifecycle assessment. The methodology is then extended to incorporate an economic evaluation of the environmental impacts. This combination of lifecycle assessment and economic evaluation can be termed 'Lifecycle Evaluation'. Lifecycle assessment quantifies and evaluates the environmental impacts of a product from the acquisition of raw materials| through manufacture and use| to final disposal. Lifecycle assessment can also provide a framework for the analysis of environmental impacts from systems such as transport| or waste management| as demonstrated in this paper. The results| for a case study of Milton Keynes in Central England| show that the recycling system generally performs better than the waste disposal system in terms of contribution to global warming| acidification effects and nutrification of surface water. An alternative method of analysis is then used| in which an economic valuation of the environmental impacts is carried out. This produces net benefits for recycling| per tonne of material| of pound 1769 for aluminium| pound 238 for steel| pound 226 for paper and pound 188 for glass| and net costs of pound 2.57 for high density polyethylene (HDPE)| pound 4.10 for poly (vinyl chloride) (PVC) and pound 7.28 for poly (ethylene terephthalate) (PET). It is concluded that lifecycle evaluation| the combination of lifecycle assessment and economic valuation| can be applied to a variety of waste management issues such as the appraisal of alternative methods of collection for recycling or an examination of the UK waste management hierarchy. This technique allows impacts to be expressed in homogenous units| and the inclusion of social and environmental impacts that would not normally be addressed within a lifecycle assessment. The approach would also facilitate the evaluation of environmental and social effects at a local level| which are particularly crucial to the success of community recycling schemes. Lifecycle evaluation could provide a powerful tool to aid the development of sustainable waste management and recycling policy. 2534,1996,2,3,Long-term effects of a doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration on the CAM species Agave deserti,To examine the effects of a doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration and other aspects of global climate change on a common CAM species native to the Sonoran Desert| Agave deserti was grown under 370 and 750 mu mol CO2 mol(-1) air and gas exchange was measured under various environmental conditions. Doubling the CO2 concentration increased daily net CO2 uptake by 49% throughout the 17 months and decreased daily transpiration by 24%| leading to a 110% increase in water-use efficiency| Under the doubled CO2 concentration| the activity of ribulose-1|5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco) was 11% lower| phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase was 34% lower| and the activated:total ratio for Rubisco was 25% greater than under the current CO2 concentration. Less leaf epicuticular wax occurred on plants under the doubled CO2 concentration| which decreased the reflectance of photosynthetic photon flux (PPF); the chlorophyll content per unit leaf area was also less| The enhancement of daily net CO2 uptake by doubling the CO2 concentration increased when the PPF was decreased below 25 mol m(-2) d(-1)| when water was withheld| and when day/night temperatures were below 17/12 degrees C| More leaves| each with a greater surface area| were produced per plant under the doubled CO2 concentration. The combination of increased total leaf surface area and increased daily net CO2 uptake led to an 88% stimulation of dry mass accumulation under the doubled CO2 concentration| A rising atmospheric CO2 concentration| together with accompanying changes in temperature| precipitation| and PPF| should increase growth and productivity of native populations of A. deserti. 2481,1996,2,4,Long-term trends and interannual variability in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific,While Landsea et al. (1996) show that the number of intense Atlantic hurricanes is on the decrease| the trend of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific is found to be just the opposite. For the period 1959 to 1994| the number of tropical storms and typhoons went through a period of decrease and then an increase| showing an obvious second-order variation such that the activity has been on a generally upward trend since the late 1980s. A similar trend is found for the number of typhoons. All these time tendencies are statistically significant. In addition to a trend| shorter-term oscillations of two| five and seven years can also be identified after the trend is removed. 4225,1996,2,4,Malaria transmission and climate change in Australia,Although endemic malaria was eradicated from Australia by 1981| the vectors remain and transmission from imported cases still occurs. Climate modelling shows that global warming will enlarge the potential range of the main vector| Anopheles farauti sensu stricto; by the year 2030 it could extend along the Queensland coast to Gladstone| 800 km south of ifs present limit. Vigilance and a dispassionate assessment of risk are needed to meet this challenge.
4285,1996,3,3,Measurement method of the absorption fixation quantity of carbon dioxide by Water Hyacinth,As is well known| greenhouse-effect gases causes serious global warming| and it is very important problem for the 21st century. The authors observed the greenhouse-effect of carbon dioxide| whose contribution ratio to warming is most high. Now the concentration of carbon dioxide is presently approximately 350 ppm| and is estimated to become 400 ppm in the year 2000. An absorption-fixation method was applied photosynthesis by Water Hyacinth an aquatic plant. Also| an apparatus was developed that can accurately measure the concentration of carbon dioxide. The authors suggest a plant-cultivating apparatus whose temperature| humidity and illumination can be controlled| and maintains the interior of the cultivating room at constant conditions| for growing Water Hyacinth. A continuous 24-hours measurement was carried out of carbon dioxide in the cultivating apparatus using a gas chromatograph with an auto sampler. We could accurately measure the carbon dioxide concentration in plant cultivating apparatus using this apparatus. 4238,1996,4,4,Measurement of tropospheric ozone by thermal emission spectroscopy,A new technique has been developed for the remote sensing of tropospheric ozone. In this technique the thermal radiation from ozone is measured against the cold background blackbody emission of clouds using ground-based FTIR spectroscopy. Preliminary measurements obtained in the springtime at Peterborough| Ontario| using this hew technique| have indicated an average tropospheric ozone mixing ratio of 50 +/- 7 ppbv within a 2.7 km layer from the surface for air flowing from a heavily industrialized and highly urbanized region. Ozone concentrations of this magnitude are in accordance with the amounts obtained for moderately polluted| springtime air using traditional in situ measurement techniques. The greenhouse radiation flux associated with this amount of ozone was estimated to be 0.61 Wm(-2) +/- 13%. Since there are few techniques available for the remote sensing of tropospheric air pollutants| this new technique could be a potentially valuable development. 2521,1996,4,4,Methods for assessing public health vulnerability to global climate change,Assessment of the human health risk posed by global climate change presents a new challenge to public health professionals. In contrast to conventional toxicological risk assessment| the health risk assessment related to global climate change must analyze stressors that consist of complex interrelated climate factors and risks that are mediated through intermediate species in varying ecosystems. A framework for ecologically based human health risk assessment helps distinguish the concepts of global climate change risk assessment from conventional risk assessment. Specific methods for linking climate variables with human disease include historical analysis of climate and disease data and the development of integrated mathematical models. Two historical climate-disease studies of malaria in Africa provide a starting point for further analysis. Early approaches to evaluating the human health risks from global climate change will include simple mapping of disease boundaries and climate factors. Computer-based geographical information system (GIS) technology will assist in the organization and analysis of climate| environment and disease data. Ultimately| complex integrated mathematical models may provide quantitative estimates of risk| but these models have not yet been validated. The collection of geographically organized relevant data through either field work or remote sensing technology will both help validate comprehensive integrated models and enhance our understanding of the associations between climate change and human health. 2519,1996,4,4,Methyl bromide: Ocean sources| ocean sinks| and climate sensitivity,The oceans play an important role in the geochemical cycle of methyl bromide (CH3Br)| the major carrier of O-3-destroying bromine to the stratosphere. The quantity of CH3Br produced annually in seawater is comparable to the amount entering the atmosphere each year from natural and anthropogenic sources| The production mechanism is unknown but may be biological. Most of this CH3Br is consumed in situ by hydrolysis or reaction with chloride. The size of the fraction which escapes to the atmosphere is poorly constrained; measurements in seawater and the atmosphere have been used to justify both a large oceanic CH3Br flux to the atmosphere and a small net ocean sink| Since the consumption reactions are extremely temperature-sensitive| small temperature variations have large effects on the CH3Br concentration in seawater| and therefore on the exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean| The net CH3Br flux is also sensitive to variations in the rate of CH3Br production. We have quantified these effects using a simple steady state mass balance model| When CH3Br production rates are linearly scaled with seawater chlorophyll content| this model reproduces the latitudinal variations in marine CH3Br concentrations observed in the east Pacific Ocean by Singh et al. [1983] and by Lobert et al. [1995]| The apparent correlation of CH3Br production with primary production explains the discrepancies between the two observational studies| strengthening recent suggestions that the open ocean is a small net sink for atmospheric CH3Br| rather than a large net source. The Southern Ocean is implicated as a possible large net source of CH3Br to the atmosphere. Since our model indicates that both the direction and magnitude of CH3Br exchange between the atmosphere and ocean are extremely sensitive to temperature and marine productivity| and since the rate of CH3Br production in the oceans is comparable to the rate at which this compound is introduced to the atmosphere| even small perturbations to temperature or productivity can modify atmospheric CH3Br. Therefore atmospheric CH3Br should be sensitive to climate conditions. Our modeling indicates that climate-induced CH3Br variations can be larger than those resulting from small (+/- 25%) changes in the anthropogenic source| assuming that this source comprises less than half of all inputs. Future measurements of marine CH3Br| temperature| and primary production should be combined with such models to determine the relationship between marine biological activity and CH3Br production. Better understanding of the biological term is especially important to assess the importance of non anthropogenic sources to stratospheric ozone loss and the sensitivity of these sources to global climate change. 4217,1996,5,3,Mid-Pliocene warmth: Stronger greenhouse and stronger conveyor,Three million years ago| prior to the onset of northern hemisphere glaciation| global mean temperatures may have been as much as 3.5 degrees C warmer than at present. We present evidence| based on the carbon isotopic composition of marine organic matter| that atmospheric CO2 levels at this time were on average only about 35% higher than the preindustrial value of 280 ppm. We also present carbon isotopic evidence for stronger thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic Ocean during the warmest intervals and propose that the North Atlantic ''conveyor belt'' may act as a positive feedback to global warming by enhancing sea ice retreat and decreasing high latitude albedo. Based on our results| it seems unlikely that the mid Pliocene warm period was a doubled CO2 world. 2520,1996,5,3,Middle to late Paleozoic atmospheric CO2 levels from soil carbonate and organic matter,The stable carbon isotope compositions of ancient soil carbonate and coexisting soil organic matter indicate that atmospheric CO2 levels decreased by a factor of 10 during the middle to late Paleozoic era. Proxy measurements of CO2 were made by application of a soil carbonate CO2 paleobarometer to a suite of paleosols that share key physical and chemical characteristics. The estimates agree with theoretical models that imply that a decrease in Paleozoic atmospheric CO2 levels was associated with afforestation of the land surface by terrestrial plants and with global climate change leading to the extensive Permo-Carboniferous glaciation. 4135,1996,3,3,Mitigation alternatives to decrease nitrous oxides emissions and urea-nitrogen loss and their effect on methane flux,Nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) are greenhouse gases that are contributing to global warming potential. Nitrogen (N) fertilizer is one of the most important sources of anthropogenic N2O emissions. A field study was conducted to compare N-use efficiency and effect on N2O and CH4 flux| of urea| urea plus the nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide (U + DCD)| and a control release fertilizer| polyolefin coated urea (POCU) in irrigated spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) in northeastern Colorado. Each treatment received 90 kg urea-N ha(-1) and microplots labeled with N-15-fertilizer were established. Average N2O emissions were 4.5| 5.2| 6.9| and 8.2 g N ha(-1) d(-1) for control| U + DCD| POCU| and urea| respectively. During the initial 21 d after fertilization| N2O emissions were reduced by 82 and 71% in the U + DCD and POCU treatments| respectively| but continued release of N fertilizer from POCU maintained higher N2O emissions through the remainder of the growing season. No treatment effect on CH4 oxidation in soils was observed. Fertilizer N-15 found 50 to 110 cm below the soil surface was lower in the POCU and U + DCD treatments. At harvest| recovery of N-15-fertilizer in the plant-soil system was 98| 90| and 85% from POCU| urea| and U + DCD| respectively. Grain yield was 2.2| 2.5| and 2.7 Mg ha(-1) for POCU| urea| and U + DCD| respectively. Dicyandiamide and POCU showed the potential to be used as mitigation alternatives to decrease N2O emissions from N fertilizer and movement of N out of the root zone| but N release from POCU does need to be formulated to better match crop growth demands. 4193,1996,4,2,Model estimates of nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural lands in the United States,The Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model was used to elucidate the role of climate| soil properties| and farming practices in determining spatial and temporal variations in the production and emission of nitrous oxide (N2O) from agriculture in the United States. Sensitivity studies documented possible causes of annual variability in N2O flux for a simulated Iowa corn-growing soil. The 37 scenarios tested indicated that soil tillage and nitrate pollution in rainfall may be especially significant anthropogenic factors which have increased N2O emissions from soils in the United States. Feedbacks to climate change and biogeochemical manipulation of agricultural soil reflect complex interactions between the nitrogen and carbon cycles. A 20% increase in annual average temperature in degrees C produced a 33% increase in N2O emissions. Manure applications to Iowa corn crops enhanced carbon storage in soils| but also increased N2O emissions. A DNDC simulation of annual N2O emissions from all crop and pasture lands in the United States indicated that the value lies in the range 0.9 - 1.2 TgN. Soil tillage and fertilizer use were the most important farming practices contributing to enhanced N2O emissions at the national scale. Soil organic matter and climate variables were the primary determinants of spatial variability in N2O emissions. Our results suggest that the United States Government| and possibly the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC)| have underestimated the importance of agriculture as a national and global source of atmospheric N2O. The coupled nature of the nitrogen and carbon cycles in soils results in complex feedbacks which complicate the formulation of strategies to reduce the global warming potential of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. 2483,1996,2,3,Modeling potential changes of forest area in Thailand under climate change,The forest cover of Thailand has been characterized according to the Holdridge Life Zone Classification| a model that correlates climatic features with vegetation distribution Six Holdridge life zone types of forest cover are found in Thailand: subtropical dry forest| subtropical moist forest| subtropical wet forest| tropical dry forest| tropical moist forest| and tropical wet forest. Climate change scenarios were simulated by three general circulation models: two United Kingdom Meteorological Office models (the low and high resolution versions) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model. These scenarios were used to simulate the effects of future climate change on Thai forests. The ratios of precipitation and the absolute values of temperature changes were incorporated into a baseline climate scenario from the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis. Under the climate change scenarios simulated by the three general circulation models| the subtropical dry forest could potentially disappear| and areas of tropical very dry forest would appear. In general| the area of subtropical life zone would decline from about 50% to 20%-12% of total cover| whereas the tropical life zone would expand its cover from 45% to 80%. All three general circulation model scenarios suggest that the tropical dry forest has the greatest potential to extend into the subtropical moist forest. This analysis suggests that global climate change would have a profound effect on the future distribution and health of Thai forests. 4267,1996,3,3,Modelling greenhouse gas emissions from cars in Great Britain,This paper outlines the issues involved in the problem of global warming. The road transport sector's contributions to this problem are then detailed and various policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from private cars are discussed. The paper then describes a model which forecasts greenhouse gas emissions from cars. The effects of various policy options are then modelled and the results compared. Policies considered include: raising fuel prices in terms of the UK government's commitment to increase road fuel duties; subsidising public transport in terms of reduced public transport fares; and a tax differentiated by engine size. 2513,1996,2,4,Monosoonal precipitation responses of shrubs in a cold desert community on the Colorado Plateau,South-eastern Utah forms a northern border for the region currently influenced by the Arizona monosoonal system| which feeds moisture and summer precipitation into western North America. One major consequence predicted by global climate change scenarios is an intensification of monosoonal (summer) precipitation in the aridland areas of the western United States. We examined the capacity of dominant perennial shrubs in a Colorado Plateau cold desert ecosystem of southern Utah| United States| to use summer moisture inputs. We simulated increases of 25 and 50 mm summer rain events on Atriplex canescens| Artemisia filifolia| Chrysothamus nauseosus| Coleogyne ramosissima| and Vanclevea stylosa| in July and September with an isotopically enriched water (enriched in deuterium but not O-18). The uptake of this artificial water source was estimated by analyzing hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of stem water. The predawn and midday xylem water potentials and foliar carbon isotope discrimination were measured to estimate changes in water status and water-use efficiency. At. canescens and Ch. nauseosus showed little if any uptake of summer rains in either July or September. The predawn and midday xylem water potentials for control and treatment plants of these two species were not significantly different from each other. For A. filifolia and V. stylosa| up to 50% of xylem water was from the simulated summer rain| but the predawn and midday xylem water potentials were not significantly affected by the additional summer moisture input. In contrast| C. ramosissima showed significant uptake of the simulated summer rain (>50% of xylem water was from the artificial summer rain) and an increase in both predawn and midday water potentials. The percent uptake of simulated summer rain was greater when those rains were applied in September than in July| implying that high soil temperature in midsummer may in some way inhibit water uptake. Foliar carbon isotope discrimination increased significantly in the three shrubs taking up simulated summer rain| but pre-treatment differences in the absolute discrimination values were maintained among species. The ecological implications of our results are discussed in terms of the dynamics of this desert community in response to changes in the frequency and dependability of summer rains that might be associated with a northward shift in the Arizona monsoon boundary. 2514,1996,3,3,Multisector economic models for analyzing global climate change,Economics plays a major role in global climate change. Economic models can therefore prove invaluable in understanding the potential of human activity to damage the ecosystem and in designing policies to remedy rhe situation. The purpose of this paper is to describe a set of economic tools| referred to as Multisector Economic Models| and to illustrate their usefulness by applying them to important issues in global climate ch.ange research. There are two major reasons we have chosen to focus on multisector economic models. First| economic activity generates the vast majority of greenhouse gases (GHG:;). Hence| we need models that can depict the creanon and emission of these pollu- tants and their impacts on the natural world. Ideally| models would include feedback effects as well in terms of the reduction in the quantity and quality of resource and environmental stocks. Useful models would also be able ‘to reflect the key role of technology both in generating GHGs and for their mitigation. These models should also be able to incorporate the rapidly changing nature of technology.
4213,1996,4,3,Needle| crown| stem| and root phytomass of Pinus sylvestris stands in Russia,With growing| concern about predicted global warming| increasing attention is being paid to the phytomass (living plant mass) components of forest stands and their role in the carbon cycle. The ability to predict phytomass components from commonly available inventory data would facilitate our understanding of the latter. We focus on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands in Russia| with the objective of predicting stand phytomass (Mg ha(-1)) for the four major stand components: needles| crown| stems| and roots| The study area includes regions in Russia where Scots pine is a stand-forming species: from European Russia (33 degrees E) to Yakutia (130 degrees E) in eastern Siberia. To ensure that results will be widely applicable| only variables consistently measured in forest inventories were considered as possible predictors: stand age| site quality class| and stocking (stand stem volume with bark| m(3) ha(-1)). Stand phytomass data were obtained from numerous regional and local phytomass studies| and supplemented with additional unpublished data. This is the first comprehensive study synthesizing stand level phytomass relations for P. sylvestris for most of its range in Russia. The combined results from over 18 regional and local phytomass studies provide a level of generality that is not possible with individual local studies. In addition to estimating stand phytomass components across a wide range of conditions| these phytomass models can also be used to verify carbon allocation rules in process-based models. 4179,1996,3,2,New feasibility study of carbon dioxide production from coal-fired power plants for enhanced oil recovery: A Canadian perspective,The concept of capturing carbon dioxide from coal-fired power plants and utilizing it as a flooding agent for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) processes is currently drawing much interest from oil| utility and coal companies in Western Canada. Implementation of such a scheme would provide two important benefits: (i) the captured CO2 could be marketed as a flooding agent which would generate revenues| and (ii) CO2 emissions to the atmosphere would be reduced. Since CO2 emissions are considered to be the main contributor to the possible serious environmental problem of global warming| the proposed scheme could become an important instrument to reduce such emissions at minimal incremental cost to the environment. This paper demonstrates how cogeneration concepts| together with process optimization strategies| help to reduce the CO2 production cost by utilizing low-pressure steam and waste heat from various sections of the power generation process. Based on these concepts and strategies| results from this study show that the recovery cost of CO2 from a coal-fired power plant can range between $0.50-2.00/mscf. If the cost is approximately $1.25/mscf| the production cost of a barrel of incremental oil would be less than $12. Therefore| even at today's modest oil prices| there is room for profit to be made operating a CO2 flood with flue gas extracted CO2. The technical and economical feasibility of the concepts are evaluated and the practical implications for the Canadian resources are discussed. 4173,1996,3,4,New| long term alternative fluorosolvents for electronics cleaning & drying applications,For years| CFC-113-based cleaning agents and displacement drying fluids were the cornerstone of the electronics industry. CFC-113 based cleaners were used in all applications| especially when reliability and field performance was paramount. Similarly| CFC-113 based displacement drying fluids| originally developed to provide post-plated scratch and spot-free surfaces in the jewellery industry| were used in many printed wiring board shops after electroless copper plating. Instead of heated air drying that oxidized the copper| which then required pumice scrubbing prior to photo-polymer primary imaging film lamination| PWBs were water rinsed| CFC-113 displacement dried in an oxygen-free environment and then went straight to yellow room for film lamination. Since the pumice scrubbing step was eliminated| less copper had to be plated onto the PWBs| which cut down on cycle time. In addition| the process was capable of drying even the thickest multilayer via holes quickly and completely. Many of our components cannot be exposed to water| and thus required solvent cleaning. All the testing for hermeticity is normally accomplished with PerFluoroCarbons (PFCs)| which are under scrutiny as global warming gases. Today we have a new wave of environmentally preferred fluorosolvents to fill the void left by the Montreal Protocol mandated production shut-down of CFC-113. These solvents include both the HydroChloroFluoroCarbons (such as NCFC-225) and the HydroFluoroCarbons (HFCs)| a new class of materials characterized by incorporating hydrogen| fluorine and carbon (but no other halogens| however they may incorporate other elements)| possessing zero ozone depleting potentials| short atmospheric life-times and minimal global warming potential. This paper explains the development commercialization and qualification of these new highly fluorinated compounds| using their physical and chemical properties to predict where they might best serve the needs of the component| printed board fabrication and assembly sectors of the electronics industry in the same way as their CFC-113 counterparts| thus allowing manufacturing to continue to keep pace with the creativity of the design community. 4169,1996,3,3,Nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide fluxes from a bare soil using a micrometeorological approach,Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) levels have prompted research on management of the soil C and N pools. The impact of C and N fertilizer addition on N2O and CO2 field emissions is not clear. We determined N2O and CO2 fluxes from a 1-ha bare soil plot using micrometeorological methods with the objective of evaluating the effect of management practices (cultivation| irrigation| fertilizer| and sucrose applications) on the relative importance of both trace gases. Research was conducted at the flora Research Station (Typic Hapludalf) in Ontario| Canada| over 7 mo. The N2O concentration gradients were measured using a Tunable Diode Laser Trace Gas Analyzer and the CO2 gradients using an Infra-Red Gas Analyzer. The transport coefficients were calculated using a Bowen Ratio Energy Balance and two wind profile approaches. These three approaches resulted in similar hourly fluxes. Daily N2O fluxes for nonevent periods were 12 ng m(-2) s(-1) in 1991| and 2 ng m(-2) s(-1) in the summer of 1992| while CO2 fluxes before treatments in 1991 were 0.18 mg m(-2) s(-1). Sucrose addition (420 kg C ha(-1)) resulted in the highest N2O and CO2 daily emissions measured during the experiment at 3100 ng m(-2) s(-1) and 0.5 mg m(-2) s(-1)| respectively. Peak emissions of 250 ng N2O m(-2) s(-1) were measured after wetting of dry soil (WFP < 0.4) through irrigation in 1991| and rain in 1992| Application of ammonium sulfate (100 kg N ha(-1)) and irrigation increased N2O emissions to 75 ng m(-2) s(-1)| with a smaller effect caused by two subsequent irrigations on wet soil (WFP > 0.6). Carbon dioxide fluxes varied between 0.01 and 0.5 mg m(-2) s(-1) being the predominant gas contributing to an equivalent CO2 global-warming potential| but addition of sucrose increased the contribution of N2O to twice the contribution of CO2. The combined effect of C and N additions (e.g. manure and legume) on the N2O emissions in irrigated or high rainfall areas should be considered in the efforts of atmospheric C sequestering. 4164,1996,2,3,Nitrous oxide emission by nitrification and denitrification in different soil types and at different soil moisture contents and temperatures,Nitrous oxide is produced from denitrification and nitrification processes in soils| and contributes to global warming and stratospheric ozone depletion. Laboratory experiments with six soils ranging in clay content between 4-12% were designed to investigate the effect of water and temperature on the partitioning of N2O from denitrification and nitrification. The nitrification rates at 70% field capacity (FC) were significantly higher in the loamy soils (980-1440 mu g N kg(-1) soil day(-1)) than in the sandy soils (60-460 mu g N kg(-1) soil day(-1) ). The nitrous oxide produced by nitrification differed similarly between the soil types resulting in ratios of N2O-N relative to NO3--N| which were only ranging from 0.28 to 0.48% with an average of 0.39%| indicating a rather constant relationship between nitrifrcation and nitrous oxide emission. Maximum nitrification rates occured at 20 degrees C and 100% fired capacity (FC) and was 1/3 at 40% FC. At lower temperatures only small responses to changes in soil moisture were observed. The percentage of N2O-N produced by nitrification increased with increasing soil moisture (0.49% at 40% FC and 0.93% at 100% FC) and decreased with increasing temperature (0.49% at 5 degrees C and 0.17% at 20 degrees C). The denitrification activity (N-2 + N2O) in the sandy loam soil responded significantly to both increased soil moisture and increased temperature| whereas the coarse sandy soil only reacted to increased temperature. In the coarse sandy soil the Q(10)-values were in the range from 1.9 to 3.4| and the values were ranging from 4.9 to 8.9 in the sandy loam soil. As for the denitrification activity also the N-2 to N2O ratio increased exponentially with increasing temperature| which implies a linear relationship between the Iog(N-2 to N2O ratio) and the temperature. The N-2 to N2O ratios were lower in the coarse sandy soil than in the sandy loam soil| and were in the range from 0 to 16. 2533,1996,2,4,Northern agriculture: Constraints and responses to global climate change,In the northern circumpolar zone| the area between the 600 degrees Cd and 1200 degrees Cd isopleths of effective temperature sum above 5 degrees C| the annual receipt of solar energy is limited by the low angle of radiation arriving at the earth's surface. This is the primary cause of the climatic constraints observed in the zone| such as low temperatures| a short growing season| frosts during the growing season| long and cold winters and thick snow cover. In Finland| the length of the growing season varies from 180 days in the south (60 degrees N) to 120 days in the north (70 degrees N). Consequently| the growing time for crops from sowing to ripening is also short| which limits their ability to produce high yields. The most advanced forms of farming in the high-latitude zone are encountered towards the south in Northern Europe| central Siberia and the prairies of Canada| i.e. mainly in the phytogeographical hemiboreal zone where the effective temperature sum is higher than 1200 degrees Cd. Conditions for agriculture then deteriorate gradually further north with the cooling of the climate| and this is reflected as an increase in cattle rearing at the expense of grain cultivation. In northern Europe farming is practised as far north as to the Arctic Circle| at about 66 degrees N latitude. In North America| fields extend to about 55 degrees N. In Asia| there are few fields north of 60 degrees N. Finland is the most northern agricultural country in the world| with all its field area| about 2.5 million hectares| located north of latitude 60 degrees N. Changes in the climate and atmospheric CO2 predicted for the future are likely to have a strong influence| either beneficial or disadvantageous| on the conditions for growth in northern areas where the annual mean temperature is 5 degrees C or less. 4148,1996,3,3,Nuclear energy into the twenty-first century,The historical development of the civil nuclear power generation industry is examined in the light of the need to meet conflicting energy-supply and environmental pressures over recent decades. It is suggested that fission (thermal and fast) reactors will dominate the market up to the period 2010-2030| with fusion being relegated to the latter part of the twenty-first century. A number of issues affecting the use of nuclear electricity generation in Western Europe are considered including its cost| industrial strategy needs| and the public acceptability of nuclear power| The contribution of nuclear power stations to achieving CO2 targets aimed at relieving global warming is discussed in the context of alternative strategies for sustainable development| including renewable energy sources and energy-efficiency measures| Trends in the generation of nuclear electricity from fission reactors are finally considered in terms of the main geopolitical groupings that make up the world in the mid-1990s. Several recent| but somewhat conflicting| forecasts of the role of nuclear power in the fuel mix to about 2020 are reviewed. It is argued that the only major expansion in generating capacity will take place on the Asia-Pacific Rim and not in the developing countries generally. Nevertheless| the global nuclear industry overall will continue to be dominated by a small number of large nuclear electricity generating countries; principally the USA| France and Japan. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd 4157,1996,3,4,Numerical study on effects of hydrate formation on deep sea CO2 storage,When liquid CO2 is disposed into the deep sea or stored on tile sea floor in order to prevent anthropogenic CO2 from entering the atmosphere| the CO2 reacts immediately with the seawater and forms solid CO2 hydrate| In this study| growth model is proposed for CO2 hydrate layers. In addition| an estimation is shown for the CO2 concentration profile| the growth rate of the leger| and its thickness in the quasi-steady state| The simulation results indicate that the hydrate layer diminishes CO2 dissolution from the storage pool into the upper sea. This growth process is extremely sensitive to the density difference between the CO2 hydrate particles and its environmental liquid. 4105,1996,4,3,Oceanic carbon dioxide uptake in a model of century-scale global warming,In a model of ocean-atmosphere interaction that excluded biological processes| the oceanic uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) was substantially reduced in scenarios involving global warming relative to control scenarios. The primary reason for the reduced uptake was the weakening or collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation. Such a large reduction in this ocean uptake would have a major impact on the future growth rate of atmospheric CO2. Model simulations that include a simple representation of biological processes show a potentially large offsetting effect resulting from the downward flux of biogenic carbon. However| the magnitude of the offset is difficult to quantify with present knowledge. 4278,1996,2,3,Overwintering of winter cereals in Hungary in the case of global warming,Under phytotronic conditions investigations were made on the effect of important environmental factors| such as temperature| water and an increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2| on the hardening of young cereal plants. In all the varieties derived from the major wheat growing regions of the world the hardening process was favourably influenced by a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content| so that a significantly larger number of plants survived the frost test than for plants of the same variety raised under normal conditions. A reduction in freezing temperature and an increase in soil moisture content caused a slight reduction in survival % for varieties with excellent frost resistance and a great reduction for those with medium or poor frost resistance. Predictions suggest that in Central Europe| as the result of global climatic changes| there will be a reduction in the quantity of winter precipitation| a considerable rise in winter temperatures and an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Judging by the experimental results| these changes could improve the overwintering of winter cereals; at the same time| however| a number of factors (mainly the reduction of precipitation) leading to yield losses must be expected during the vegetation period. 4209,1996,2,4,Overwintering strategies of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) on warmer islands may predict impact of global warming on Kyushu| Japan,Mosquito overwintering was studied on Tanegashima and Yakushima| islands south of Kyushu| to predict the impact of global warming on northern Kyushu where mosquitoes overwinter in diapause. On Tanegashima and Yakushima| the following 5 types of overwintering strategies were recognized: (1) continued reproduction without diapause (2 Anopheles spp.| 2 Culex spp.| 2 Aedes spp.); (2) diapausing female adults but a few adults from late-developing larvae may emerge in midwinter (2 Anopheles spp. and 9 Culex spp.); (3) diapausing eggs but a few adults may emerge in midwinter (5 Aedes spp.); (4) diapausing larvae (1 Orthopodomyia sp.| 1 Aedes sp.| 1 Armigeres sp.| 1 Uranotaenia sp.| 1 Toxorhynchites sp.); and (5) diapausing eggs and larvae (1 Tripteroides sp.). Few females of 4 aedine species were collected while seeking hosts in midwinter| but neither larvae nor adults of Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles or southern house mosquito| Culex quinquefasciatus Say| were found during this survey. The 5 degrees C increase in the midwinter mean temperature in northern Kyushu probably will not produce serious mosquito problems directly| but the proximity of the subtropical regions may have significant effects through dispersal of adult mosquitoes. 4136,1996,2,3,PAGE95 - An updated valuation of the impacts of global warming,A vital measure for global warming policy is the marginal impact of a tonne of carbon emitted to the atmosphere. In economic terms| this value corresponds to the carbon tax level needed to internalize the externalities associated with climate change. This study re-evaluates the marginal impact of CO2 emissions in the light of new scientific and economic understanding of the cooling effects of sulphate aerosols and ozone depletion| the regional distribution of global warming damages| non-linearity in damage as a function of temperature rise and the appropriate discount rate. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4236,1996,5,3,Paleoclimate data constraints on climate sensitivity: The paleocalibration method,The relationship between paleoclimates and the future climate| while not as simple as implied in the 'paleoanalog' studies of Budyko and others| nevertheless provides sufficient constraints to broadly confirm the climate sensitivity range of theoretical models and perhaps eventually narrow the model-derived uncertainties. We use a new technique called 'paleocalibration' to calculate the ratio of temperature response to forcing on a global mean scale for three key intervals of Earth history. By examining surface conditions reconstructed from geologic data for the Last Glacial Maximum| the middle Cretaceous and the early Eocene| we can estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity to radiative forcing changes for different extreme climates. We find that the ratios for these three periods| within error bounds| all lie in the range obtained from general circulation models: 2-5 K global warming for doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide. Paleocalibration thus provides a data-based confirmation of theoretically calculated climate sensitivity. However| when compared with paleodata on regional scales| the models show less agreeement with data. For example| our GCM simulation of the early Eocene fails to obtain the temperature contrasts between the Equator and the Poles (and between land and ocean areas) indicated by the data| even though it agrees with the temperature data in the global average. Similar results have been reported by others for the Cretaceous and for the Last Glacial Maximum. 4186,1996,5,4,Paleoclimatic implications of Holocene lake-level fluctuations| Owasco lake| New York,Radiocarbon-controlled stratigraphic data from Owasco Lake valley| New York| document two cycles of relative lake-level change during the Holocene in response to regional variations in effective precipitation. Lake highstands occurred at 10.5 and 6.9 ka| with an intervening lowstand at 9 ka. The 10.5 ka highstand occurred during the well-known Killarney-Younger Dryas cold interval (11.2-10.0 ka) in response to decreased evaporation and increased precipitation| The driest interval of the early-middle Holocene occurred similar to 9 ka| at the time of maximum summer solar insolation. A second highstand occurred during the Hypsithermal (similar to 8.5-5.5 ka) in response to increased precipitation at a time when the interior of North America underwent maximum aridity| This out-of-phase relationship between northeastern North America and the midcontinent during the Hypsithermal may have been a consequence of a northward shift of the jet stream and a change of precipitation patterns in response to increased global warmth. If the Hypsithermal can be used as an analog for potential global warming| the northeastern United States may experience future increases in regional precipitation. 4287,1996,5,2,Paleopedological approach to evaluation of soil response to anthropogenic global warming,Buried soils contain information which may be used to forecast soil changes related to global climate warming. Average global warming by 0.8-1 degrees C corresponds to the Holocene thermic optimum (5500-6000 years ago) and warning by 1.8-2.0 degrees C corresponds to the last Mikulino interglacial optimum (125 000 years ago). The reconstructions are regarded only as an element of the forecast. Drafts of scenarios are suggested for Eastern Europe in case of global warning| taking into account equilibrium and non-equilibrium pedogenic models. 4106,1996,3,3,Pasture burning in Amazonia: Dynamics of residual biomass and the storage and release of aboveground carbon,Aboveground biomass in cattle pasture converted from tropical dense forest was studied both before and after reburning in Brazilian Amazonia. In a 7-year-old pasture studied in Apiau| Roraima| the aboveground dry weight of biomass (live plus dead) exposed to burning consisted of 96.3 t ha(-1) of original forest remains| 6.2 t ha(-1) of secondary successional vegetation (woody invaders in the pasture)| and 8.0 t ha(-1) of pasture grass (carbon contents 48.2%| 45.4%| and 42.2%| respectively). In terms of carbon| burning efficiencies for these three categories were 13.2%| 66.7% and 94.6%| respectively. Net charcoal formation was 0.35 t C ha(-1) or 0.63% of the carbon exposed to the reburn| while the total accumulated since conversion (including the initial burn) is estimated at 2.3 t ha(-1) (1.82% of the predeforestation aboveground biomass carbon stock). The dynamics of the original forest remains were represented in simulations that included parameters such as charcoal formation| burning efficiency and carbon concentration in different biomass components. Releases from initial burning of the cleared forest (44.0 t C ha(-1)) plus releases over the course of the succeeding decade through combustion (12.5 t C ha(-1)) and decay (51.5 t C ha(-1)) total 92% of the original forest biomass carbon (126 t C ha(-1)). Of biomass carbon remaining after the initial burn (84.3 t C ha(-1))| 76.0% is released: 61.1% through decay and 14.9% through combustion in reburns| while 1.2% is net conversion to charcoal in the reburns. These results indicate an amount of charcoal accumulation that is smaller than some carbon calculations have assumed| therefore suggesting a greater impact on global warming from conversion of forest to pasture. 4244,1996,4,4,Performance bounds on acoustic thermometry of ocean climate in the presence of mesoscale sound-speed variability,The ability to measure climatic changes in ocean temperature is fundamentally limited by the presence of mesoscale variability. Because ocean acoustic propagation can be used to measure the range-averaged temperature profile| long-range acoustic transmissions have been proposed as a means of filtering out mesoscale variability in order to measure a global warming| related trend in mean temperature. In this paper| the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) on the estimation of the mean depth-dependent temperature profile given a single acoustic transmission is evaluated to provide an indication of the highest accuracy which could be achieved by this experiment. The CRLB derived here applies to broadband vertical arrays of arbitrary length and thus extends previous work. Evaluation of the bound is performed using models of sound-speed variability derived from real Pacific environmental data. Results indicate that the performance of an acoustic thermometry system is limited by mesoscale variability above a threshold value of observation-time-signal-to-noise ratio product and is acoustic noise limited below this threshold. Further| comparisons of the CRLB above this threshold suggest that for a 5000-km source-receiver separation| ATOC accuracy may vary from between 0.01 and 0.1 degrees C depending on the shape and uncertainty of the change in mean temperature profile. (C) 1996 Acoustical Society of America. 4153,1996,2,3,Permafrost distribution in the Northern Hemisphere under scenarios of climatic change,The proportion of the Earth's land area underlain by permafrost| currently about 25%| is expected to contract substantially in response to climatic warming. Maps of permafrost distribution in the northern hemisphere were generated using three general circulation models and an empirical paleoreconstruction| all scaled to a 2 degrees C global warming| in conjunction with a permafrost model that has successfully replicated the arrangement of contemporary permafrost zones in several high-latitude regions| The simulations indicate a 25-44% reduction in the total area occupied by equilibrium permafrost. Conditions specified by the climate models result in a poleward (north-northeast) displacement of all permafrost zones. The continuous permafrost zone was most severely impacted in the simulations| with reductions in its areal extent ranging from 29% to 67%| The permafrost model was also used to hindcast the distribution of permafrost in Russia during the Holocene climatic optimum and Eemian interglacial. Agreement of modeled results with mappings based on independent criteria confirm the model's effectiveness. 4216,1996,5,3,Pliocene climates: The nature of the problem,The Pliocene may have been the last time period when global temperatures were greater than present. The Pliocene data base is sufficiently complete to provide a valuable test for climate model predictions for warm time periods. This paper reviews some key issues with respect to understanding and verifying theories for the origin of Pliocene warmth. There are two main factors cited to explain Pliocene warmth-higher CO2 levels or higher levels of ocean heat transport. The two explanations may not be exclusive; for example CO2 increases may drive ocean heat transport changes. However| initial proxy-CO2 reconstructions suggest|that the CO2 perturbation is very small (similar to 100 ppm) to effect such large changes in climate| Considerably more data are needed to evaluate the magnitude of Pliocene CO2 changes. Although more modeling work is also required| it is necessary to continue evaluation of input data used to force model results (particularly sea surface temperatures). Continued simulations and evaluation of pCO(2) and SST results should enable us to better understand how the earth responds during a global warming and determine whether our models are properly simulating such changes. 4263,1996,4,4,Population growth and global CO2 emissions - A secular perspective,Considerable scientific effort has been applied to the question of whether worldwide fossil fuel combustion and the resultant emission of CO2 (as well as emissions of other greenhouse gases) will cause a discernible enhancement of the greenhouse effect in the next century| A more precise understanding of the contribution of human activity to potential global warming (vis-ri-vis natural climatic variability) is of critical policy interest| Surprisingly little research has been devoted to establishing the underlying statistical relationship between human activities and CO2 emissions| In this paper| we explore the nature of the relationship between global population growth and CO2 emissions by employing the test of causality developed by Granger on annual data for 1880-1989| as well as more comprehensive error correction and cointegration models| The results suggest a lack of a long-term equilibrium relationship| but imply a short-term dynamic relationship from CO2 to population growth. 4156,1996,3,3,Possible greenhouse effects of tetrafluoromethane and carbon dioxide emitted from aluminum production,Tetrafluoromethane (CF4) is an extremely stable gas which strongly absorbs infrared radiation at similar to 8 mu m| and therefore is capable of influencing the greenhouse effect. No natural sources have been identified| and the major anthropogenic source appears to be the electrolytic smelting of alumina to produce aluminum. Measurements of CF4 concentrations in the atmosphere are reviewed| and these are combined with aluminum production rates to provide an estimate of 1.3-3.6 kg of CF4 emitted per ton of aluminum produced for the period up to similar to 1985. Aluminum production also requires large amounts of electrical energy| leading to the emission| of as much as 22 tons of carbon dioxide per ton of aluminum due to fossil fuel combustion in power plants; The|present day contribution of hydroelectric power reduces this figure to about 14 tons of carbon dioxide per ton of aluminum. An estimate of the relative radiative trapping of CF4 and CO2 emitted in aluminum production during this same period (1900-1985) indicates that the effect of CF4 is about one-third that of the CO2 formed by. aluminum production. However| the emission of fluorocarbons from modem aluminum electrolysis cells is much lower than previous estimates indicate| and this factor is considered in estimating potential long-term global warming effects of CF4 and CO2 from aluminum production. Possible processes leading to removal of CF4 from the atmosphere are described. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd 2523,1996,2,4,Potential effects of climate change on corn production in Zimbabwe,This study uses Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and the dynamic crop growth model CERES-Maize to assess the potential effects of climate change on corn (Zea mays L.) in Zimbabwe. Corn is the most widely grown crop in Zimbabwe and is often under environmental stress due to high ambient temperature and low rainfall conditions. Global climate change scenarios suggest corn productivity in Zimbabwe will decrease dramatically under non-irrigated or irrigated conditions in some regions of agricultural production. The reductions in corn yields are primarily attributed to ambient temperature increases which shorten the crop growth period| particularly the grain-filling period. If climate effects occur farmers may find corn production an unacceptably risky activity. Adaptation options are available but financial costs may be prohibitive to communal area farmers. 2497,1996,2,3,Potential effects of global climate change on small north-temperate lakes: Physics| fish| and plankton,A 10-yr record of the thermal characteristics of four lakes at the North-Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research site was analyzed and used to validate simulations of lake physics with the dynamic reservoir simulation model. Simulations of cool| warm| and intermediate years were rerun with meteorology from four general circulation models with a doubling of CO2. In all simulations with doubled CO2 there is an earlier onset of stratification| increased summer epilimnetic temperature ( 1-7 degrees C)| and an increased intensity and longer duration of stratification. Maximum surface temperatures at times may exceed upper lethal limits of warm and cool water fish in some scenarios. Suitable thermal habitat for cold water| cool water| and warm water fish generally increases in all scenarios after climate change. Changes in the vertical migration of Daphnia| however| are expected to vary depending on the interaction of thermal stratification and fish habitat use. In northern Wisconsin lakes with cold water planktivores| habitat overlap between fish and zooplankton is expected to decrease| while in southern Wisconsin lakes habitat overlap is expected to increase. Although most physical responses of lakes to climate change are consistent among all climate scenarios| biological responses will likely be more variable owing to the complex nature of factors determining ecological interactions in lakes. 2494,1996,4,3,Potential environmental impacts of future halocarbon emissions,An integrated analysis of future halocarbon emissions and their environmental impacts shows that strict global compliance is required if the Montreal Protocol is to accomplish the goal of eliminating the lower stratospheric ozone hole. This analysis is integrated in the sense that demographic| economic| and regulatory processes controlling future production were linked explicitly to the technological factors translating production into emissions and the environmental processes transforming emissions into environmental impacts. Given current models of halocarbon transformation and atmospheric response| this research suggests that if a small percentage of nations continues to expand production at modest rates| the ozone hole will not be eliminated. In addition| high growth rate assumptions for halocarbon production by noncompliance nations will result in significantly increased ozone depletion. This research also shows that the continued use of small amounts of ozone-depleting substances for essential uses and the failure to adequately replace all ozone-depleting substances can eliminate the possibility of returning the atmosphere to pre-ozone hole conditions. The global climate change potential of halocarbons is fairly small if growth rates for chlorofluorocarbon substitutes remain low. If growth rates return to precontrol levels| these substitutes could contribute significantly to global climate change. 2484,1996,2,4,Potential impact of global climate change on forest distribution in Sri Lanka,The potential impact of climate change on forest distribution in Sri Lanka was evaluated. The Holdridge Life Zone Classification was used along with current climate and climate change scenarios derived from two general circulation models| the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model and the Canadian Climate Centre Model| at a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees resolution. Current and future distributions of life zones were mapped with a Geographic Information System. These maps were then used to calculate the extent of the impact areas for the climate change scenarios. The current distribution pattern of forest vegetation includes tropical very dry forest (6%)| tropical dry forest (56%)| and tropical wet forest (38%). Results obtained using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model show an increase in tropical dry forest (8%) and decrease in tropical wet forest (2%). The Canadian Climate Centre Model scenario predicted an increase in tropical very dry forest (5%) and tropical dry forest (7%)| and a decrease in tropical wet forest (11%). Both models predicted a northward shift of tropical wet forest into areas currently occupied by tropical dry forest The application of general circulation models such as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model and the Canadian Climate Centre Model| as well as the Holdridge Life Zone Classification| to estimate the effect of climate change on Sri Lankan forests in this paper indicates that these methods are suitable as a tool for such investigations in Sri Lanka. 2470,1996,2,4,Potential impacts of climate change on citrus and potato production in the US,Potential impacts of global climate change on fruit and vegetable yield in the US were investigated through simulations of citrus and potato. Simulated treatments included combinations of three increased temperature regimes (+1.5| +2.5 and +5.0 degrees C)| and estimates of the impact of three levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (440| 530| and 600 ppm) in addition to control runs representing current climatic conditions. Adaptive planting dates of -28| -14| +14 and +28 days were included in the potato simulations for current and increased temperature regimes. Twenty-two sites were simulated for citrus yields and 12 sites for potato| using climate records from 1951 to 1980. Response surfaces were developed for all combinations of increased temperature and CO2. Results of citrus simulations without CO2-induced yield improvement indicate that production may shift slightly northward in the southern states| but yields may decline in southern Florida and Texas due to excessive heat during the winter. CO2 effects tended to counteract the decline in simulated citrus yields. Fall potato production under current management practices appears vulnerable to an increase in temperature in the northern states; increased CO2 and changes in planting date were estimated to have minimal compensating impacts on simulated potato yields. 4234,1996,2,4,Potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems: A review of implications for policymakers and conservation biologists,Climate change represents a significant threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem integrity. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)| which has been ratified by 118 nations and came into force in 1994| has amongst its aims the protection of ecosystems. This paper reviews the relevant text in the Convention and gives an overview of scientific efforts to provide policy-makers with the necessary information on ecosystem impacts. The sensitivity of different types of ecosystem to climatic change is discussed and the concepts of ecological limits and thresholds are addressed and examples given. The paper concludes there is a need for a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on ecosystem resilience in order to maintain biological diversity and respond to the needs of policymakers in implementing the UNFCCC. Recommendations are made for increased research effort| including increased resolution of climate models| better predictive capacity at a regional level for within- and between-year rainfall patterns| seasonality and extreme events. Collaborative monitoring programs| including long-term ecological research along climate gradients| are proposed for 4 biomes: coastal wetlands| montane ecosystems| coral reefs and Arctic ecosystems. 2526,1996,2,3,Potential impacts of future climate change on nyala Tragelaphus angasi in Lengwe National Park| Malawi,General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to develop climate change scenarios for the Lengwe National Park in Malawi. Scenarios of future precipitation and ambient temperature were in turn used to evaluate habitat suitability of 5 ungulate populations and to rank their vulnerability to global climate change in the park. Preliminary results suggest that ambient temperatures may rise with a doubling of atmospheric CO2| and precipitation will be more variable. The vulnerability assessment results suggest that all the ungulates| especially nyala antelope Tragelaphus angasi| could be highly susceptible to climate induced changes in habitat and food supply. Adaptive measures| such as translocation| culling| and expanding the water supply| may alleviate climatic change impacts on nyala and other ungulates. 4275,1996,2,4,Predicting changes in the composition of New Zealand's indigenous forests in response to global warming: A modelling approach,A model to predict the effects of global warming on the composition of New Zealand's native forests is described. Relationships between the current distribution of 41 tree species and site temperature| solar radiation| water balance| lithology| and drainage for 14 500 plots have been analysed using non-parametric regression. Distributions of species were then predicted for points on a 5 km grid across New Zealand. A test for residual spatial autocorrelation using a 'proximity' variable| indicated that New Zealand's four Nothofagus species have distributions less well correlated with environmental variables than most other species. inclusion of the 'proximity' variable in the regressions also substantially improved predictions of Nothofagus distribution. Predictions for other species were improved by incorporating a term representing interaction with the patchily distributed but strongly dominant Nothofagus species. Preliminary results from a cluster analysis of the combined predictions for all species indicate that the model successfully reconstructs the existing pattern of New Zealand's indigenous forests. Estimation of the effects of global warming on species distribution was done by introducing a perturbation to represent an overall increase in temperature of 2 degrees C. The results indicate that a substantial disequilibrium is likely to occur between the current forest pattern and expected warmer temperatures. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd 4256,1996,2,3,Prediction of possible changes in glacio-hydrological characteristics under global warming: Southeastern Alaska| USA,We use the Wetherald and Manabe climate model to predict the: response of mountain glaciers to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The| response is measured in terms of a change in the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and I the glacier terminus altitude (GTA)| net accumulation-ablation on these altitudes and the melt runoff for 12 mountain-glacier regions in southeastern Alaska| U.S.A. The; methods we use involve extrapolating climate-model temperature fields to a glacier's I location| and empirical-statistical relationships between air temperature and percentage of solid precipitation| and between summer air temperature and ablation and melt runoff. Our study shows that| under global warming| glaciation in southeastern Alaska will not disappear| but mass exchange of glaciers will be more intensive and the ELA value will increase by 300-760 m| depending on the glacier's: distance from the ocean. 4229,1996,2,4,Pressures| trends| and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems,This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts| as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information| economic market| and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down| much uncertainty remains over| for example| combined storm| sea surge| and other events. In any case| within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem| resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall| a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition| economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning. 2517,1996,2,4,Processes of wetland loss in India,Wetlands in India supply crucial human and animal needs such as drinking water| protein production| fodder| water purification| wildlife habitat| and flood storage. Increased appreciation of uses and threats is essential to protect wetlands where justified. Three quarters of India's population is rural| it places great demands on India's wetlands and losses continue to occur. This paper is based on extensive discussions with natural resource managers| government employees| farmers| academicians| and resource users at dozens of sites in India| as well as an extensive literature search. Twelve important kinds of wetland loss are identified and mechanisms believed to be causing them discussed: (1) agricultural conversion| (2) direct deforestation| (3) hydrologic alteration| (4) inundation| (5) defoliation| (6) altered upper watersheds| (7) accumulative water demands| (8) water quality degradation| (9) wetland consolidation| (10) global climate change| (11) ground-water depletion| (12) exotic species and biodiversity. Wetland understanding| management| and public awareness in India must continue growing if wetland resources are to remain functional. 4201,1996,3,2,R&D for technology to solve global warming,Global warming is a problem in which the combustion of coal| oil? and other fossil fuels causes the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases| such as carbon dioxide (CO2)| to increase. This results in mounting global air temperatures that lead to climatic change. Specifically| global warming will cause a rise in sea levels| changes in the rain-fall patterns| and other problems. In order to secure the route to solutions for global warming that requires new responses in ways that are compatible with economic growth| it is essential to achieve breakthroughs with innovative technologies. In addition to energy-related R&D| also important are R&D for CO2 absorption and fixation for a fundamental solution to global warming. Japan has started the development of innovative environmental technologies| such as technologies for CO2 fixation and utilization. 4250,1996,3,3,Recent climatic change| greenhouse gas emissions and future climate: The implications for India,In this paper| we discuss past climatic trends over India| greenhouse gas emissions due to energy consumption| forest and land-use changes| climate change scenarios for the year 2050| potential consequences for agriculture and cyclone activity and the possibility that India might limit the increasing trend in its emissions. India's mean surface air temperature has increased significantly by about 0.4 degrees C over the past century. Neither monsoon nor annual rainfall shows any significant trend. On average| there has been a rise in sea levels around India over recent decades| though considerable uncertainties exist in the accuracy and interpretation of the available data. Carbon emissions from the energy sector amount to 71 MT a year| equivalent to all other sectors combined. From land-use data| a marginal net sequestration of 5.25 million tonnes of carbon occurred during 1986. Following the IPCC guidelines| methane emissions from rice and livestock are estimated at 17.4 and 12.8 Tg/year| respectively. According to recent climate model projections| India may experience a further rise in temperature of 1 degrees C by the year 2050| about four times the rate of warming experienced over the past 100 years. A modest increase in precipitation amounts might occur. Cereals production is estimated to decrease and the nutrition security of the population-rich but land-hungry region of India might be hampered. An increase in local tropical cyclone activity may occur over the next century| posing added problems as large areas in the coastal regions have a dense population. About 70% of the electricity generation in India is from coal-based power stations. Altering this dependence significantly to reduce emissions would imply a substantial change in the present energy policy of India. There is great potential for improving energy efficiency and conservation. The adoption of cleaner coal-technologies should be considered| as must the development of renewable| non-conventional energy sources. In all cases| serious institulional barriers and resource limitations need to be addressed. The scope for carbon sequestration is limiled by land availabilily and other factors. It is argued that any response to global warming must be located firmly in the framework of sustainable development. 4192,1996,2,3,Redistribution of sea level rise associated with enhanced greenhouse warming: A simple model study,Future sea level rise from thermal expansion of the World Ocean due to global warming has been explored in several recent studies using coupled ocean-atmosphere models. These coupled models show that the heat input by the model atmosphere to the ocean in such an event could be quite non-uniform in different areas of the ocean. One of the most significant effects predicted by some of the models is a weakening of the thermohaline circulation| which normally transports heat poleward. Since the greatest heat input from enhanced greenhouse warming is in the higher latitudes| a weakening of the poleward heat transport effectively redistributes the heat anomaly and the associated sea level rise to lower latitudes. In this study| the mechanism of ocean circulation spindown and heat redistribution was studied in the context of a much simpler| linearized shallow water model. Although the model is much simpler than the three-dimensional ocean circulation models used in the coupled model experiments| and neglects several important physical effects| it has a nearly 10-fold increase in horizontal resolution and clearer dynamical interpretations. The results indicated that advanced signals of sea level rise propagated rapidly through the action of Kelvin and Rossby waves| but the full adjustment toward a more uniform sea level rise took place much more slowly. Long time scales were required to redistribute mass through narrow currents trapped along coasts and the equatorial wave guide. For realistic greenhouse warming| the model showed why the sea level rise due to ocean heating could be far from uniform over the globe and hence difficult to estimate from coastal tide gauge stations. 2474,1996,2,4,Reef coral diversity and global change,Regional anthropogenic processes such as pollution| dredging| and overfishing on coral reefs currently threaten the biodiversity of stony corals and other reef-associated organisms. Global climate change may interact with anthropogenic processes to create additional impacts on coral diversity in the near future. In order to predict these changes| it is necessary to understand the magnitude and causes of variation in scleractinian coral diversity throughout their 240 million year history. The fossil record documents long periods of speciation in corals| interrupted repeatedly by events of mass extinction. Some of these events relate clearly to changes in global climate. Diversity in reef corals has increased since their last period of extinction at the end of the Cretaceous (65 My BP)| and is still rising. During the last 8 million years| the fragmentation of the once pantropical Tethys Sea separated corals into two major biogeographical provinces. Periods of glaciation also have caused major changes in sea level and temperature. Accumulated evidence supports the theory that relative habitat area and changing patterns of oceanic circulation are mainly responsible for the two observed centres of recent coral diversity at the western tropical margins of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. At predicted rates of climate change in the near future| coral reefs are likely to survive as an ecosystem. Increases in sea level may actually benefit corals and lead to regional increases in diversity if new habitat area on back reefs is opened to increased water circulation and thus coral dispersal. Rising temperature may cause higher rates of coral mortality and even local extinction in isolated| small populations such as those on oceanic islands. The effects of increases in ultraviolet radiation (UV) are largely unknown| but likely to be negative. UV may damage planktonic coral propagules in oceanic surface waters and thus decrease rates of gene flow between coral populations. This may result in increased local extinctions| again with the strongest impact on widely separated reefs with small coral populations. The largest threats to coral diversity are regional anthropogenic impacts| which may interact with global climate change to exacerbate rates of local species extinctions. Centres of high reef coral diversity coincide with human population centres in south-east Asia and the Caribbean| and thus the greatest potential for species loss lies in these geographical areas. 4207,1996,4,4,Relationship between acoustic bandwidth and characteristics of sound propagation in west Mediterranean Sea,Recently| ocean acoustic tomography (OAT) has been used to investigate the phenomenon of global warming and in wide-area oceanic observations. OAT can determine the sound-speed profile from measured acoustic travel times over known ray paths. The seawater temperature profile and the existence of ocean currents can be estimated using the sound-speed profile. However| the measured arrival time structure contains many pulses with different paths. Ray geometry fundamentals (i.e.| numbers of turning points of rays| initial angle| etc.) must be properly identified. The sound-speed structure varies with observation area (i.e.| west Mediterranean Sea| low-| mid-latitude sea area| etc.) and season. It has been shown by the Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC) that a special ocean structure with sound speed increasing linearly with depth is formed in the west Mediterranean Sea. We have to understand the characteristics of sound propagation for each sea area in advance. In this paper| the characteristics of sound propagation for an ocean model for areas such as the west Mediterranean Sea have been analyzed in the time domain using Stickler's normal mode method (SNM). The effects of acoustic bandwidth (ABW) on the pattern of arrivals have been examined. 4110,1996,4,3,Relative radiative forcing consequences of global emissions of hydrocarbons| carbon monoxide and NOx from human activities estimated with a zonally-averaged two-dimensional model,A global two-dimensional (altitude-latitude) chemistry transport model is used to follow the changes in the tropospheric distribution of the two major radiatively active trace gases| methane and ozone| following step changes to the sustained emissions of the short-lived trace gases methane| carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons. The radiative impacts were dependent on the latitude chosen for the applied change in emissions. Step change global warming potentials (GWPs) were derived for a range of short-lived trace gases to describe their time-integrated radiative forcing impacts for unit emissions relative to that of carbon dioxide. The GWPs show that the tropospheric chemistry of the hydrocarbons can produce significant indirect radiative impacts through changing the tropospheric distributions of hydroxyl radicals| methane and ozone. For aircraft| the indirect radiative forcing impact of the NOx emissions appears to be greater than that from their carbon dioxide emissions. Quantitative results from this two-dimensional model study must| however| be viewed against the known inadequacies of zonally-averaged models and their poor representation of many important tropospheric processes. 4228,1996,2,4,Response of stream invertebrates to a global-warming thermal regime: An ecosystem-level manipulation,We manipulated| in accord with global-warming predictions| the thermal regime of a permanent first-order stream near Toronto| Ontario| Canada. We examined the effects of a 2-3.5 degrees C water-temperature increase on densities| biomass| species composition| and life histories of resident stream invertebrates. The stream was divided longitudinally at the source into two channels| one control and one experimental| and a before and after (BACI) design was employed such that one pre-manipulation year was followed by 2 yr of the temperature manipulation. Changes in the experimental channel following commencement of the manipulation included: (1) decreased total animal densities| particularly Chironomidae (Diptera); (2) earlier onset of adult insect emergence; (3) increased growth rates and precocious breeding in Hyalella azteca (Amphipoda); (4) smaller size at maturity for Nemoura trispinosa (Plecoptera) and H. azteca; and (5) altered sex ratios for Lepidostoma vernale (Trichoptera). These results partially corroborate previous laboratory and field studies. However| variation in the responses of individual target species to the manipulation was unexpected and may have been influenced by the genetic structure of local populations. We conclude that levels of gene flow among habitats may be critical to the degree of impact seen as a result of large-scale thermal perturbation (e.g.| global warming). 2482,1996,2,3,Responses of some North American CAM plants to freezing temperatures and doubled CO2 concentrations: Implications of global climate change for extending cultivation,Environmental influences on the cultivation of Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants| which are especially well adapted to arid regions with limited rainfall| were evaluated with respect to two aspects of global climate change. Cellular uptake of a vital stain| which occurs in living cells only| was halved at -6+/-1 degrees C for the cultivated CAM species Agave salmiana| Opuntia ficus indica and Stenocereus queretaroensis growing at day/night air temperatures of 30 degrees C/20 degrees C compared with -12 degrees C for the wild species Opuntia humifusa. When plants were grown at reduced temperatures of 10 degrees C/0 degrees C| stain uptake was halved at about -8 degrees C for the cultivated species but at -24 degrees C for O. humifusa. The greater low-temperature sensitivity and the lesser low-temperature acclimation of the cultivated species severely limit the regions where they can presently be grown| but such regions will expand as air temperatures rise accompanying global climate change. When the atmospheric CO2 concentration was doubled from the current ambient value of 360 mu mol mol(-1) to 7201 mu mol mol(-1)| net CO2 uptake over 24-h periods increased 36% for A. salmiana and S. queretaroensis; about one-third of the increase resulted from higher net CO2 uptake rates in the last 4 h of daytime and two-thirds from higher rates during the first 8 h of the night. The doubled atmospheric CO| concentration predicted to occur before the end of the twenty-first century will increase CO2 uptake and hence biomass productivity of such CAM species| further expanding the regions where they may be profitably cultivated. (C) 1996 Academic Press Limited. 2516,1996,2,4,Scientific community recognizes link between ecology and health,Healthy climate for study: The scientific community| including many prestigious organizations| is beginning to recognize the connection between global climate change and the emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases; but despite the heightened interest in exploring the link| funding for such efforts is hard to come by| a frequent victim of budget cutbacks. 4131,1996,2,4,Sea level rise and impacts on nearshore sedimentation: An overview,Impacts on nearshore sedimentation arising Introduction from potential sea level change of the magnitude predicted in Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change scenarios associated with global warming are reviewed. For sandy duned coasts| the obvious sedimentation impacts include potential erosion of coastal dunes with implied deposition of the eroded material in the nearshore| possible deepening of embayments| and flooding of wetlands. For the sandy coasts a number of two-dimensional models are available for predicting shore line change| but there are significant difficulties in applying Bruun-type models for dune erosion and assessment of sediment redistribution over the inner shelf| and for predicting the amount of shoreline retreat for a given rate of sea level rise. If the beach profile contains excessive sand relative to its equilibrium profile| sensu Dean (1991)| then shoreline retreat may not occur upon sea level rise. From the evidence of Kiel Bay| at least in these semi-enclosed basin types| it is during major transgressions that maximum deposition in adjacent basins occurs| due to the sea eroding weakly consolidated and weathered surface regolith. But at the same time climatic patterns were re-adjusting and probably contributed to maximum deposition in adjacent shelf and basins below wave base. 4262,1996,5,3,Sea-level changes in the tectonically stable Malay-Thai Peninsula,The Malay-Thai Peninsula is part of Sundaland| a geological region of relative crustal stability. Therefore| the positions of old shorelines (of the past 20|000 years or so) can be considered to indicate positions of actual past sea levels. Over 200 shoreline indicators at positions below as well as above present sea level have been radiocarbon dated. These dated positions indicate that prior to 6 ka the sea rose from at least 90 m below present sea level at rates that initially amounted to 15 mm/year and later became 6 mm/year. At ca. 6 ka| the rising sea surpassed its current position and at ca. 5 ka| it reached 5 m. During this maximum marine inundation| the peninsula was narrower| since the low coastal plains did not yet exist. In the period following this maximum transgression| the available shoreline data indicate that regional sea level subsided through a series of fluctuations that were characterized by amplitudes of 2 m and periods of about 2000 years. The peaks and troughs of the fluctuations became progressively lower. The latest peak was at about +1.7 m (or 0.7 m above present high tide) a few hundred years ago| The cause of these fluctuations is not yet known| but the trend suggests that| in the near future| regional sea level may subside at annual rates between 1.5 mm and 2 mm| This rate of descent is 25 to 30% of the estimated rate of sea-level rise that may result from global warming. In other words| for the Malay-Thai Peninsula| the effect of sea-level rise on account of manmade greenhouse gases will be partly compensated by actual subsidence of regional sea level. 4251,1996,2,4,Seasonal relationship between temperature| precipitation and snow cover in a mountainous region,An analysis of correlation coefficients for climatological data covering the period 1901-1994 or 1931-1994 for six locations in Switzerland has been made in order to highlight the relationships between temperature| precipitation (rain and snow) and snow in summer and in winter. The results show that colder summers tend to be associated with more precipitation| mainly in terms of the frequency of occurrence of precipitation| but also in terms of its abundancy. In winter| sites located at lower altitudes behave differently from those at higher elevations. At lower altitudes| warmer winters tend to be rainier and to have less snow (only a small part of winter precipitation falls in the form of snow). Above 1000-1500 m| correlations between temperature on the one hand| and precipitation or snow on the other| tend to be weaker than at lower elevations; warmer winters are associated with less snow but also with less precipitation in general| while the relationship between precipitation and snow is stronger. These results confirm that during cold periods of the past| such as Lobben Phase (1400 BC-1230 BC) cold summers were probably linked to frequent and abundant precipitation. These conditions led to increased mortality as well as to population migrations. In terms of potential future global warming if the current temperature/precipitation relationships remain unchanged| then warmer summers will likely be linked to a decrease in precipitation. Higher winter temperatures can be expected to lead to a general decrease of snow and to a decrease in precipitation| but only at higher elevations; warmer winters would conversely be associated with an increase in precipitation at lower altitudes. 2476,1996,2,4,Sensitivities of groundwater-streamflow interaction to global climate change,The sensitivities of groundwater-streamflow interaction to global climate change over the medium-sized mountainous Mesochora catchment in central Greece have been analysed. The global climate change was simulated through a set of hypothetical and monthly GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) scenarios of temperature increases coupled with precipitation changes. The catchment hydrological regime| which is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff| was simulated by the coupling of the snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models of the US National Weather Service River Forecast System (US NWSRFS). The groundwater was represented through a lower zone one-tension water storage and two free water storages parameterized by the soil moisture model| while the streamflow was the sum of direct runoff| surface runoff and interflow from the upper zone free water| plus the primary and secondary baseflows yielded by the model. The interaction between groundwater and streamflow was expressed by the ratio of the two variables on a seasonal and monthly basis. Both representations of global climate change resulted in a moderate influence on the groundwater-streamflow interaction during the winter months and in a very high one in the spring and summer months. In particular| the major seasonal shift in the snow accumulation pattern related to climate change| as well as the large runoff reduction and evapotranspiration increase occurring in spring and summer months| boosted considerably the groundwater to streamflow ratio. This latter would probably have negative impacts on various problems of water resources management (e.g. droughts| water supply| irrigation| water pollution). 4129,1996,2,4,Shoreline stabilization approaches in response to sea level rise: US experience and implications for Pacific island and Asian nations,Coastal erosion is a worldwide problem; it is estimated that over 70% of the world's beaches are currently experiencing erosion(Bird| 1985)| and this number may approach 90% in the United States.(1) Almost every conceivable form of shore protection has been attempted in the United States| including construction of seawalls| groins| and jetties as well as beach nourishment. The principal approach to protecting coastal property and maintaining recreational beaches in the United States today is beach nourishment. Engineering structures such as groins and seawalls have often been shown to have detrimental effects on adjacent beaches. Also| their construction and maintenance costs are quite high. Therefore|coastal communities have come to rely on a ''soft'' engineering solution - beach nourishment because it is environmentally sound| aesthetically pleasing| and so far| economically feasible. However| global warming and accelerated sea level rise will cause more rapid rates of beach loss and could make even this alternative too costly for many resort areas along the U.S. shoreline. The cost to nourish all the major recreational oceanic beaches inthe United States was estimated based on various sea level rise scenarios. The beach nourishment approach involves placing enough sand on the beach to maintain stable (nonretreating) conditions in response to rising sea level. The quantity of sand required to ''hold the line'' is evaluated under various sea level rise scenarios fi-om the baseline scenario to the I-m estimate of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Beach nourishment is not a practical alternative for most Pacific island nations because sand is a scarce resource. In fad| beaches are often mined for sand for construction| contributing to beach erosion For mainland countries| beach fill projects are more practical Singapore was one of the first countries to use this technology in combination with building offshore breakwaters to form artificial headlands. As Western style sunbathing and the overall popularity of beaches for recreation continue to grow| beach nourishment can be expected to become a more common way to deal with sea level rise induced coastal erosion for highly developed beach resort areas. 4239,1996,3,4,Short communication: Hydrogen| the inherently recyclable fuel,Hydrogen| now well-known as an intermediate fuel which neither pollutes nor contributes to global warming| is shown to be essentially inexhaustible. The reason is that electrolytic production and combustion are governed by the same chemical reaction in opposite directions. The hydrogen recycles via the atmosphere and oceans indefinitely. 4208,1996,4,4,Siberian CO2 efflux in winter as a CO2 source and cause of seasonality in atmospheric CO2,Over three years| we found a consistent CO2 efflux from forest tundra of the Russian North throughout the year| including a large (89 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) efflux during winter. Our results provide one explanation for the observations that the highest atmospheric CO2 concentration and greatest seasonal amplitude occur at high latitudes rather than over the mid-latitudes| where fossil fuel sources are large| and where high summer productivity offset by winter respiration should give large seasonal oscillations in atmospheric CO2. Winter respiration probably contributed substantially to the boreal winter CO2 efflux. Respiration is an exothermic process that produces enough heat to warm soils and promote further decomposition. We suggest that| as a result of this positive feedback| small changes in surface heat flux| associated with human activities in the North or with regional or global warming| could release large quantities of organic carbon that are presently stored in permafrost. 4119,1996,2,3,Simulating the impact of global warming on milk and forage production in Scotland .1. The effects on dry-matter yield of grass and grass white clover swards,The purpose of the study was to assess the effect that global war ming and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration would have on grassland production within Scotland. This required the development of a mathematical model of herbage production that was responsive to climatic factors and changes in CO2 levels. A model of pure grass and grass-white clover swards is described| and this has been used to assess the effects that the predicted increases in temperature| rainfall and CO2 might have on grass and white clover production. It is projected that global warming will increase the length of the growing season by between 12 and 37 days for every 1 degrees C rise in annual mean daily temperature. The indications are that global warming will have little effect on annual production of grass| either from pure grass or grass-white clover swards. On the other hand| white clover as a percentage of total herbage production is estimated to increase from 32% to 46% for a 2 degrees C temperature rise. Nevertheless| increasing concentrations of CO2 is predicted to increase the yields of grass and white clover under both current climatic conditions and the global warming scenario. Copyright (C) 1996 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd 4120,1996,2,4,Simulating the impact of global warming on milk and forage production in Scotland .2. The effects on milk yields and grazing management of dairy herds,The potential impact of global warming and the enhanced atmospheric CO2 concentration on grassland management on dairy farms within the UK requires assessment. This has led to the development of a mathematical model of the grazing dairy cow. The model| that embraces grass and grass-white clover swards| has been used to assess the effects that the projected increases in temperature and rainfall under global warming and the increased levels of CO2 might have on milk production and on silage conservation for a typical dairy farm. The results suggest that the impact on milk production for grass-based systems will vary depending on the locality. On the other hand| for herds grazed on grass-white clover swards milk output might increase regardless of site| when the concentration of CO2 is enhanced. As regards silage production from grass-white clover swards| under global warming and at current levels of CO2 there is an apparent tendency to increase the percentage of total silage yield obtained from the first cut| although this does nor occur for grass swards. At the same time| there are also indications that global warming will increase the percentage of clover in the herbage cut for conservation. Copyright (C) 1996 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd 4121,1996,2,4,Simulation of climate change with infrared heaters reduces the productivity of Lolium perenne L in summer,Field-grown perennial ryegrass was subjected to climate warming and elevated CO2 concentration during summer in free air conditions (no enclosure of the vegetation). Increased foliage temperature (2.5 degrees C above fluctuating ambient) was induced by heating the stand with infrared radiation sources| modulated by an electronic control device (FATI| Free Air Temperature Increase). Enhanced CO2 was produced by a FACE system (Free Air CO2 Enrichment). Exposure to simulated climate warming drastically reduced above-ground harvestable dry matter (52% loss). The nitrogen allocated to the leaf fraction was thus concentrated into less dry matter| which enhanced the nitrogen concentration on a mass basis (+17%) but also per unit leaf area (+47%). As a consequence| CO| assimilation rates were not affected in these slower growing plants in the +2.5 degrees C treatment| and the photochemical efficiency of non-cyclic electron transport of photosystem II was also unaffected. Although the plants were grown in the field without root restrictions| long-term exposure to elevated CO| concentration induced noticeable acclimation of the photosynthetic apparatus (40% loss of fixation potential)| which largely outweighed the direct stimulation in this summer period. Part of the reduced rates could be attributed to lower N concentration on a leaf area basis. The results are compared with responses of this species in sunlit conditioned greenhouses| which indicates that experiments in enclosures may underestimate effects in the field. This also emphasizes the need to validate other plant responses to climate warming and CO2 enrichment in free air conditions. 2536,1996,4,4,Soil science in transition: Soil awareness and soil care research strategies,The perceived decline of soil science in the industrialized countries needs to be remedied by greater attention (i) to fundamental aspects of soil processes and soil development in the context of global climate change and (ii) to local and regional environmental problems| Soil care is proposed as a unifying concept and challenge for geoecological sustainability| It is defined as the activity of selecting and implementing| locally and regionally| a system of soil and land use management suitable for maintaining and improving soil usefulness and quality for any selected purpose| In developing countries where| in addition| improvement of soil productivity will remain the major goal| more locally trained soil scientists will be needed to increase their relative proportion among the current number of some 50|000 soil scientists worldwide and to narrow the gap in research efforts. 2478,1996,2,4,Soil surface CO2 flux as an index of soil respiration in situ: A comparison of two chamber methods,Predictions of global climate change have recently focused attention on soils as major sources and sinks for atmospheric CO2| and various methodologies exist for measuring soil surface CO2 flux. A static (passive CO2 absorption in an alkali trap over 24 h) and a dynamic (portable infra-red CO2 gas analyzer over 1-2 min) chamber method were compared. Both methods were used for 100 different site x treatment x time combinations in temperate arable| forest and pasture ecosystems. Soil surface CO2 flux estimates covered a wide range from 0 to ca. 300 mg CO2-C m(-2) h(-1) by the static method and from 0 to ca. 2500 mg CO2-C m(-2) h(-1) by the dynamic method. The relationship between results from the two methods was highly non-linear| and was best explained by an exponential equation. When compared to the dynamic method| the static method gave on average 12% higher flux rates below 100 mg CO2-C m(-2) h| but much lower flux rates above 100 mg CO2-C m(-2) h(-1). Spatial variability was large for both methods| necessitating a large number of replicates for reliable field data| with typical coefficients of variation being in the range 10-60%| usually higher with the dynamic than the static method. Diurnal variability in soil surface CO2 flux was partly correlated with soil temperature| whereas day-to-day variability was more unpredictable. However| use of a mechanistic simulation model of CO2 transport in soil| SOILCO2| showed that very large day-to-day changes in soil surface CO2 flux can result from rainfall events causing relatively small changes in soil water content above field capacity (ca. -10 kPa)| even if CO2 production rates remained relatively unaffected. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd 2479,1996,4,4,Soils in an environmental context: An American perspective,The understanding of fundamental properties of and processes in soils has both agricultural and environmental benefits. Fundamental understanding of soil biology| chemistry| pedology| and physics can be applied to problems of production| environment| and environmental problems caused by production. Although most frequently thought of as agricultural scientists| soil scientists have many roles in modern science including environmental science. The demand for food| animal feed| and fiber continues to increase| driven by growing populations| rising aspirations and improving standards of living. On a global basis| soil science will continue to be;viewed as primarily an applied agricultural science. In contrast to the third world| concerns about agricultural production in the developed countries have diminished in this century because of the success of soil and crop science to increase production per unit area. At the same time| concerns about soil| water and air pollution have increased. Soil science knowledge is being employed to understand environmental problems such as non-point water pollution by sediment| air quality diminution by fugitive dust| and trace element transport in runoff. Studies of microbial degradation of farm chemicals has now expanded to biodegradation of organic chemicals with urban sources. Soil science plays a key role in understanding and modeling the transport of pollutants to ground water and to remediation of polluted urban environments. Soils| as occupants of most landscapes| also play important roles in buffering changes in natural ecosystems. Acid rain and global climate change are two environmental problems to which soil scientists have applied themselves. Soil scientists can be proud of their contributions to improving agricultural production and have the opportunity to continue to apply their basic understanding of soils to many environmental problems. 4170,1996,3,3,Solar-hydrogen electricity generation and global CO2 emission reduction,The relative costs and CO| emission reduction benefits of advanced centralized fossil fuel electricity generation| hybrid photovoltaic-fossil fuel electricity generation| and total solar electricity generation with hydrogen storage are compared. Component costs appropriate to the year 2000-2010 time frame are assumed throughout. For low insolation conditions (160 W m mean annual solar radiation)| photovoltaic electricity could cost 5-13 cents kWh(-1) by year 2000-2010| while for high insolation conditions (260 W m(-2)) the cost could be 4-9 cents kWh(-2) Advanced fossil fuel-based power generation should achieve efficiencies of 50% using coal and 55% using natural gas. Carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced by a factor of two to three compared to conventional coal-based electricity production in industralized countries. Ln a solar-fossil fuel hybrid| some electricity would be supplied from solar energy whenever the sun is shining and remaining demand satisfied by fossil fuels. This increases total capital costs but saves on fuel costs. For low insolation conditions| the cost of electricity increases by 0-2 cents kWh(-1)| while the cost of electricity decreases in many cases for high insolation conditions. Solar energy would provide 20% or 30% of electricity demand for the low and high insolation cases| respectively. In the solar-hydrogen energy system| some photovoltaic arrays would provide current electricity demand while others would be used to produce hydrogen electrolytically for storage and later use in fuel cells to generate electricity. Electricity costs from the solar-hydrogen system are 0.2-5.4 cents kWh(-1) greater than from a natural gas power plant| and 1.0-4.5 cents kWh(-1) greater than from coal plant for the cost and performance assumptions;adopted here. The carbon tax required to make the solar-hydrogen system competitive with fossil fuels ranges from $70-660 tonne(-1)| depending on the cost and performance of system components and the future price of fossil fuels. Leakage of hydrogen from storage into the atmosphere| and the eventual transport of a portion of the leaked hydrogen to the stratosphere| would result in the formation of stratospheric water vapor. This could perturb stratospheric ozone amounts and contribute to global warming. Order-of-magnitude calculations indicate that| for a leakage rate of 0.5% y(-1) of total hydrogen production - which might be characteristic of underground hydrogen storage - the global warming effect of solar-hydrogen electricity generation is on the order of 1% the impact of the hybrid system. Impacts on stratospheric ozone are likely to be minuscule. Copyright (C) 1996 International Association for Hydrogen Energy 2508,1996,4,4,Some new laboratory approaches to studying tropospheric heterogeneous reactions,Assessing the potential for global climate change requires a detailed understanding of the fundamental chemical and physical processes controlling the concentrations of key gases as well as particles in the atmosphere. Laboratory studies are used to obtain the basic kinetic and mechanistic data needed for inputs to models as well as for interpreting field observations. While gas-phase reactions are reasonably well-understood| ''heterogeneous'' processes involving gases and solids are not. We briefly describe applications of three approaches to laboratory studies of heterogeneous atmospheric reactions which have not been widely used for this purpose in the past: diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectrometry (DRIFTS)| transmission electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (TEM-EDS)| and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The application of these techniques to studying the reactions of the oxides of nitrogen with NaCl and NaBr found in sea-salt particles is described and used to illustrate their utility in obtaining both kinetic and mechanistic data. The reaction of NO2 with NaBr is found to be approximately second order in NO3| suggesting that the dimer N2O4 may be the reacting species. If this is the case| a preliminary value for the reaction probability for the N2O4-NaBr reaction at 298 K is 2 x 10(-4) with an uncertainty of a factor of three. That for the HNO3-NaCl reaction was found using XPS to be (4 +/- 2) x 10(-4). The kinetic data from these studies indicate that the NO2| reaction is too slow to be competitive with the N2O5 and HNO3 reactions. Mechanistically| both the DRIFTS and TEM-EDS studies show that water vapor even at relative humidities well below the deliquescence point causes a selective recrystallization of surface nitrate into microcrystallites of NaNO3| regenerating a fresh salt surface. This may explain held observations of some marine particles which are essentially totally devoid of chloride ions. 2535,1996,4,4,Spatial scale-dependent policy planning for land management in southern Europe,This study outlines an original tool for rural policy planning in southern Europe. This new tool is a process-based| scale-dependent| rural policy-making approach| which is designed to address increasing land degradation problems in southern Europe. Seven important processes are identified (land abandonment| devegetation| intensification in agriculture| global climate change| accelerated soil erosion| increasing water demands| urbanisation) and plotted on a space-time diagram| which clearly shows the spatial and temporal scales for which these processes are significant for landscape change in southern Europe. Conclusions are derived concerning| in particular| sustainable (optimal) rural policy-making for southern Europe's problematic land management. An optimal spatial-temporal scale for land management in southern Europe may range spatially from the ''farm'' (0.5 km(2)) to ''sub-provincial'' level (450 km(2)) and temporally from 7 to 30 years. The study delineates methods and results derivable from such a new policy-planning approach and suggests the usefulness of combining this approach with ecological land classification at the landscape level. 4283,1996,2,2,Statistical inquiry into the causes of global temperature changes,Observed changes in average global temperatures over time have led to two general avenues of discussion in the environmental literature. The scientific community has concentrated on the statistical detection of global warming and the determination of biological and industrial factors causing average world temperatures to rise. A second avenue of thought considers the issue of economic abatement by attempting to measure the pecuniary costs of global warming and the elimination of factors influencing this problem. This paper concentrates not on developing an economic model of global warming and environmental damage| but rather on examining the problem from a purely statistical vantage point. Utilizing annual data from 1950 to 1991 and optimally determined vector autoregression specifications| it is shown that general industrial growth and greenhouse gas emission levels statistically cause a persistent increase in average global temperatures. In addition| this analysis shows that increasing average world temperatures have a statistically significant negative causal impact on agricultural productivity. Given that global warming is a long-term process culminating from decades of industrial activity| statistically significant causal results derived in this paper using shortterm data are interesting. Statistical results suggest that trends in average temperatures respond to short-run fluctuations in industrial activity and population growth.
4103,1996,2,4,Statistical modelling reveals demography and time are the main contributing factors in global sperm count changes between 1938 and 1996,Declining sperm count reports have caused enormous concern to both the scientific community and to society. We reproduced the linear regression analysis and the quadratic model analysis using the 50 year sperm count data published in Carlsen's report and found that neither model adequately described the data. The reported decline in sperm count could be due to observational bias and overinterpretation of linear regression. In fact only 36% of the total variability in sperm count was explained by the linear model and 42% by the quadratic model. The linear model was no longer valid when three new European reports on sperm counts were included in the analysis. The quadratic model| however| suggested an upward trend of sperm count after 1975 (R(2) = 0.48| P <0.0001). Factors other than the 'passage of time' may have contributed to the initial decline of sperm count. An immediate candidate was demography. Our analysis showed that sperm counts in USA were significantly higher in 1938-1956 compared with those in 1957-1974 and 1975-1988| but not in the European or Asian/African/South American countries. The variability of the USA sperm count (1938-1988) explained by the linear and quadratic models was found to be 71 and 70% respectively. The quadratic model importantly indicated that the sperm count in USA decreases asymptotically towards a limiting value and global sperm counts could be increasing since 1970. The non-uniform nature of the global sperm count change suggested that local variations in pollution| diet but not global warming were important determinants of reproductive health. 2505,1996,3,3,Strategic planning and adoption of greenhouse gas mitigation options in Asia,Asia's global warming potential (GWP) is large and growing. Asia releases an estimated 8.4 billion metric tons of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) each year from fossil fuel use| cement manufactures and ''land use changes'' while its anthropogenic emissions of methane (emissions derived primarily from wet rice cultivation and livestock - estimates from these being highly unreliable) represent nearly half the global total. These greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions represent 30% (28.3 billion metric tons) of the global total of CO2 equivalent emitted in 1989| Per capita GHG emissions are low but per-unit GDP emissions are very high (anywhere from two to six times more than in the OECD countries). The countries participating in the Asia Least Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategies (ALGAS)(1) project account for nearly 70% of the total CO2 emissions and over 80% of the methane emissions in the entire Asian region. This paper highlights several key issues that must be considered while developing GHG emissions mitigation options within the context of an overall strategy of moving countries rapidly along a path of sustainable development that increases inter-sectoral energy efficiencies within the economy| enhance sinks| and decrease GHG emissions per capita. In particular| this integrated strategy should promote ''no regrets'' policies and emphasize ''win-win'' options that result in sustainable economic development over and above any GHG abatement benefits that might result from the adoption of such initiatives. This emphasis on long term economic sustainability requires a detailed economic evaluation of environmental impacts of potential ALGAS projects. The GHG emissions mitigation potential of the candidate projects must be evaluated within this overall framework of evaluating anticipated economic and environmental impacts. Part 1 of this paper highlights key issues in economic evaluation of environmental impacts and provides recommendations on how to use accepted evaluation techniques during strategic planning and project economic analysis. Project economic analysis incorporates the economic evaluation of environmental impacts. One important set of environmental impacts is that on global climate change through the candidate project's net impacts on GHG emissions. To assess the relative significance of climate change impacts of potential projects| a systematic screening exercise should be adopted during the strategic planning stage. This screening mechanism would allow a comparison of specific climate change impacts relative to other environmental impacts. A monetization of such impacts would then allow an objective assessment of the candidate project's role in mitigation of the impacts of GHG emissions. The special concerns related to development of strategies based on technical estimates and projections of economic parameters that are highly uncertain| are enumerated in Part 1. In addition to recognizing specific economic and political considerations while developing such strategies| the importance of private sector participation in pursuing options for abatement of GHG emissions must be acknowledged. Thus| several private sector specific issues must be factored into overall strategy development; these are discussed in Part 2. 4165,1996,3,3,Strategies for greenhouse gas reduction,Several of the standard gases used in IC manufacturing have been identified as contributors to global warming. Commonly accepted models need to be modified to accurately estimate the impact from a single process gas. Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs)| commonly used in CVD chamber cleans| create particular problems in the atmosphere. A variety of techniques can be used to manage the effluent stream. Recent work has focused on improving reaction efficiencies to reduce the quantity of PFCs. 4243,1996,2,3,Surface thermohaline forcing conditions and the response of the present-day global ocean climate to global warming,I investigate the response of the present-day thermohaline circulation to a greenhouse gas induced global warming under different surface thermohaline conditions in a global Bryan/Cox [Bryan| 1969; Cox| 1989] ocean general circulation model with realistic bathymetry and geometry. Initially the model is spun up With surface temperature and salinity relaxed to Levitus [1982] climatologies. The forcing condition for salinity is then switched to a diagnosed flux| while that for temperature is provided by a restoration with a timescale of either 30 days (strong relaxation) or 300 days (weak relaxation). The present-day ocean climate is obtained under these two sets of thermohaline conditions. Under the strong restoration the modeled North Atlantic Deep Water Formation (NADWF) settles to an intensified state. Under the weak relaxation the model solution hardly differs from that of the spin-up. The ocean states are then subject to a global warming at a rate similar to that of the double CO2 experiment in a fully coupled model described by Manabe and Stouffer [1993| 1994]. The global thermohaline circulations under the weak relaxation show an initial weakening and shallowing| continued weakening upon the cessation of the atmospheric warming| and eventual reestablishment of their strengths. These behavior patterns are not unlike those found in the fully coupled model but are in sharp contrast to those in the case under the strong restoration| where NADWF eventually collapses. The processes responsible for these differences are discussed. 2515,1996,4,4,Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models,A methodology is presented for generating surrogate climate-change scenarios with a regional climate model. The procedure is simple to implement and dynamically consistent. It entails (i) adopting a realized or simulated atmospheric flow evolution and (ii) prescribing specific thermodynamic modifications of this realization to a regional model's initial fields and externally-specified time-dependent lateral boundaries fields. The resulting scenarios can be used for process and parameterization studies| to calibrate the regional response to a putative global climate change| and to intercompare different models. The approach is illustrated with two month-long regional climate model simulations. The experiment is designed to explore the response within Europe to a pseudo-global warming of 2 K with an accompanying increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Analysis reveals that there is a spatially-differentiated preciptation increase consonant with the domain-averaged increase of about 16% in the water vapor content. 4182,1996,3,2,Technology for removing carbon dioxide from power plant flue gas by the physical adsorption method,Research into technology for removal of CO2 considered to be the major cause of global warming| was applied to electric power plant flue gas. Our method was to use zeolite as adsorbent for physical adsorption| progressing from the previously used PSA (Pressure Swing Adsorption) method to the more advanced PTSA (Pressure and Temperature Swing Adsorption) method. We have been conducting basic research since the 1980s| and in 1991 built a 1000m(3)N/h scale pilot plant| where we are continuing research through trial operation. Trial operation of the pilot plant has been mainly for acquisition of scale up data| as well as improvement in the decrease in the power consumption of PTSA units. As a result| we have seen a better than 20% improvement in that area. In addition| the pilot plant completed 2000 hours of continuous operation without incident between October and December| 1994. The total hours of operation of the plant have topped 4000 hours| but we have seen no decrease in the effectiveness of the CO2 adsorbent. The SOx in the flue gas was trapped in the lower part of desiccant in PSA-H2O before the process. Some of desiccant reacts to that| but we have prevented any ill effects on the process that might be caused by main units. At this point we would like to report on the results of our research| as well as outline our plants for the future. 4235,1996,2,4,Temperature effects on bioconcentration of DDE by Daphnia,1. Lake temperatures vary with season| latitude| elevation and as a result of thermal pollution. Ln addition| lake temperatures may increase with global warming. Radiotracer experiments were conducted to determine the effects of temperature on the bioaccumulation of lipophilic organic contaminants by zooplankton. Daphnia pulex were exposed to C-14-labelled DDE| a stable metabolite of the organochlorine pesticide DDT| in particle-free water for 24 h. An increase in temperature from 5 to 25 degrees C resulted in a 314% increase in bioconcentration factor (the ratio of contaminant concentration in the organism to contaminant concentration in the water). 2. To mimic the fluctuating temperatures experienced by zooplankton during diel vertical migration| we conducted experiments in which animals were exposed to 25 degrees C for 12 h in the light| then 15 degrees C for 12 h in the dark. Exposure to this fluctuating temperature regime for 48h resulted in a 27-33% increase in bioconcentration factor relative to a constant 20 degrees C control. 3. Live animals accumulated more than twice the amount of DDE than freshly killed animals| indicating that the activity of the organism is important in bioconcentration. This finding sheds light on the possible mechanisms for the increase in bioconcentration at higher constant temperatures. Daphnia pump more water through their branchial chambers at higher temperatures. Thus| if the thoracic limbs are an important site of contaminant uptake| then animals are exposed to more contaminant molecules at higher temperatures. Other possible mechanisms include changes in the thickness of the diffusive boundary layer and changes in cell membrane permeability. 2498,1996,2,4,Temperature| CO2 and the growth and development of wheat: Changes in the mean and variability of growing conditions,The experiment described here resulted from simulation analyses of climate-change studies that highlighted the relative importance of changes in the mean and variance of climatic conditions in the prediction of crop development and yield. Growth and physiological responses of four old cultivars of winter wheat| to three temperature and two carbon dioxide (CO2) regimes (350 or 700 ppmv) were studied in controlled environment chambers. Experimental results supported the previous simulation analyses. For plants experiencing a 3 degrees C increase in day and night temperatures| relative to local long-term mean temperatures (control treatment)| anthesis and the end of grain filling were advanced| and grain and dry matter yields were reduced by 27% and 18%| respectively. Increasing the diurnal temperature range| but maintaining the same mean temperature as the control| reduced the maximum leaf area (27%) and grain yield (13%) but did not affect plant development. Differences among the temperature treatments in both phyllochron interval and anthesis date may have resulted from differences between measured air| and unmeasured plant| temperatures| caused by evaporative cooling of the plants. Thermal time (base=0 degrees C)| calculated from air temperature| from anthesis to the end of grain filling was about 650 degrees C d for all cultivars and treatments. Doubling ambient CO2 concentration to 700 ppmv reduced maximum leaf area (21%) but did not influence plant development or tiller numbers. 4284,1996,2,3,The application of agricultural land rating and crop models to CO2 and climate change issues in Northern regions: The Mackenzie Basin case study,The Mackenzie Basin in northwestern Canada covers approximately 1.8 million km(2) and extends from 52 degrees N to 70 degrees N. Much of the Basin is currently too cool and remote from markets to support a viable agricultural sector| but the southern portion of the Basin has the physical potential to support commercial agriculture. This case study employed agricultural land rating and crop models to estimate the degree to which a CO2-induced global warming might alter the physical potential for commercial agriculture throughout the Basin. The two climate change scenarios considered in this analysis would relax the current constraints imposed by a short and cool frost-free season| but without adaptive measures| drier conditions and accelerated crop development rates were estimated to offset potential gains stemming from elevated CO2 levels and warmer temperatures. In addition to striving for a better understanding of the extent to which physical constraints on agriculture might be modified by climate change| there is a need to expand the research context and to consider the capacity of agriculture to adapt to altered climates. 4132,1996,4,4,The atmospheric fate and impact of hydrochlorofluorocarbons and chlorinated solvents,A very considerable body of data pertaining to the atmospheric behaviour of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and chlorinated solvents is now available and leads to the following conclusions: (a) these compounds| with the exception of 1|1|1-trichloroethane| make a small or insignificant contribution to stratospheric ozone depletion| global warming| 'photo-chemical smog'| 'acid rain'| or chloride and fluoride levels in precipitation; (b) it seems highly unlikely that the chlorinated solvents degrade in the atmosphere to give chloroacetic acids as major products| as has often been claimed in the literature. 4138,1996,2,3,The effects of climate change due to global warming on river flows in Great Britain,Global warming due to an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will affect temperature and rainfall| and hence river flows and water resources. This paper presents results from an investigation into potential changes in river flows in 21 catchments in Great Britain| using a daily rainfall-runoff model and both equilibrium and transient climate change scenarios. Annual runoff was simulated to increase by 2050 by over 20% in the wettest scenarios and decline by over 20% in the driest scenarios - and different catchments respond differently to the same change scenario. Monthly flows change by a greater percentage than annual hows| and under all the scenarios considered there would be a greater concentration of flow in winter. Snowfall| and hence snowmelt| would be almost entirely eliminated. Progressive changes in river flows over the next few decades would be small compared with year-to-year variability| but would be noticeable on a decade-to-decade basis. 4183,1996,4,3,The embodiment of carbon associated with Brazilian imports and exports,National statistics designed to determine domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions usually do not take into account the embodiment of carbon in international trade flows| thus failing to reflect that countries indirectly emit GHG by importing non-energy goods. As a matter of fact| by becoming more services oriented and importing increasing quantities of energy-intensive goods from developing nations| developed nations are transferring part of their carbon emissions to developing economies| with a consequent impact on the global environment. The reduction of carbon emissions in developed nations due to lower energy intensities is of no help for the global warming problem if it is accompanied by increases in carbon emissions in developing nations caused by exports to developed notions. This paper estimates the amount of energy and carbon embodied in the non-energy exports and imports of Brazil for the period 1970-1993 in order to determine whether or not the international trade of carbon rich products is a problem worth addressing in the case of Brazil. The estimates show that the carbon content of exports was considerably higher than that of imports from 1980 on. In 1990 the difference| expressed as a fraction of Brazil's total carbon emissions| was 11.4 percent| or some 8.3 million tonnes of carbon. The significance of these findings for Brazil's future energy and emissions policies is discussed. 4206,1996,3,3,The emerging global-warming market-driver in the energy sector: A status report,The financial institutions have in recent years been progressively awakening to a severe threat inherent in human-enhancement of the greenhouse effect. Insurance companies| and increasingly banks and pension funds| have come to fear that a warming world holds the danger of unmanageable property-catastrophe losses triggered by an increase in extreme climate-related events| plus a spectrum of major knock-on problems for debt and equity investments. This emerging greenhouse market-driver now has major implications for corporate strategy in both the financial and energy sectors. 4218,1996,3,3,The Euro-Quebec Hydro-Hydrogen Pilot Project [EQHHPP]: Demonstration phase,Many large metropolitan areas worldwide have called for an improvement in the air quality| which has deteriorated mainly due to energy systems based on fossil fuels| namely the transport sector. Hydrogen and hydrogen enriched fuels can provide an improvement in the Future. If hydrogen is produced from renewable sources| it will also contribute to the reduction of global warming. Due to the superior properties of hydrogen| with respect to efficiency and environmental characteristics| when burned in specially adapted combustion engines| gas turbines and fuel cells| the present EQHHPP phase focuses on hydrogen applications in Future potential markets related to the transport sector. The overall goal of the demonstration phase of the EQHHPP is to advance hydrogen applications. Studies on hydrogen safety| regulations and acceptability| and on socio-economic aspects of hydrogen use| will support the technological development and demonstration activities. In that framework| various demonstration projects were started in 1992| with funds coming from the European Commission| from the Government of Quebec and from industry and research centres. The demonstration projects mainly concern the utilization of hydrogen in airborne and urban transportation| the time Frame being 1992 to 1997. 4237,1996,2,3,The Great Lakes diversion at Chicago and its implications for climate change,In 1900 the city of Chicago began diverting sizable amounts of water from Lake Michigan to move its sewage down the Illinois River. This diversion launched a series of continuing legal controversies involving Illinois as a defendant against claims by the federal government| various lake states| and Canada who wanted the diversion stopped or drastically reduced. During the past 96 years extended dry periods have lowered the lake levels. Using these dry periods as surrogates for future conditions| their effects on the past controversies were examined as analogs for what might occur as a result of climate change from an enhanced Greenhouse effect. The results reveal that changing socioeconomic factors including population growth will likely cause increased water use| and Chicago will seek additional water from the Great Lakes. New priorities for water use will emerge as in the past. Drier future conditions will likely lead to enhanced diversions from the Great Lakes to serve interests in and outside the basin. Future lower lake levels (reflecting a drier climate) will lead to conflicts related to existing and proposed diversions| and these conflicts would be exacerbated by the consequences of global warming. In any event| a warmer| drier climatic regime will challenge existing laws and institutions for dealing with Great Lakes water issues. 4220,1996,4,4,The greenhouse earth: A view from space,The natural greenhouse effect of the Earth is strongly influenced by the radiative effects of water vapour and clouds in the atmosphere| which control the energy absorbed from the sun| and that lost through thermal emission to space. Any perturbations to the climate balance| for example through so-called 'radiative forcing' due to increasing CO2 amounts| variations in solar constant| or other causes| can be amplified by the feedback processes that involve water in its various phases. The radiative cooling of the Earth in the absence of clouds has recently been shown to be dominated by emission from upper-tropospheric water vapour| in the far infrared portion of the spectrum| and this is illustrated: observations of this radiative flux| and of the distribution of water vapour in the upper troposphere| are urgently needed. The role of clouds is discussed| and it is noted that their response to global warming is not presently unambiguously determined with available models| due to the complexity of competing processes: again| as in the cloud-free case| more accurate global observations are needed. The paper is illustrated by data from satellite experiments| most notably the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment sponsored by NASA. 4180,1996,3,4,The impact of fossil generation advances on the emissions of CO2 in the United States,Today| 72% of electric power in the United States is generated from fossil fuels. Additional capacity being brought online to satisfy increasing demand will be almost entirely fossil-based in the next 10-15 years| despite technological advances in renewables and nuclear generation. The U.S. National Energy Strategy of 1991 called for reductions in global warming potential| as measured in billions of tons of CO2 equivalent| of 10% by the year 2010| and 20% by the year 2030. Achievement of such goals will require emphasis on both transportation and energy industries. The U.S. electric power industry has undertaken a voluntary program to return CO2 emissions to 1990 levels. New generation in the U.S. will emphasize high efficiency options| based for the next 10-20 years largely on combined Rankine and Brayton cycles. Such combined cycles| whether fired by coal or gas| result in significantly higher efficiency. However| the complete solution to the control of CO2 emissions in the U.S. will largely depend on improvements in the installed capacity base which will retain the predominant share of electric generation. Reduction of CO2 emissions| as a consequence of burning less fossil fuel per kW generated| is a near-term option for both developed and developing nations. This paper reviews opportunities for efficiency improvement in existing fossil-fuel plants and the likely deployment of new generation options designed to improve plant efficiency and reduce emissions. It is concluded that the most likely future scenario points to CO2 emissions from generating plants being 34% higher than 1990 by the year 2010. 4226,1996,2,2,The influence of human activities on the distribution of hydroxyl radicals in the troposphere,The free radical reactions occuring in the sunlit troposphere involving methane| carbon monoxide| oxides of nitrogen| ozone and water vapour| generate a distribution of hydroxyl radicals which play a major role in removing many of the trace gases emitted by human activities. The United Kingdom Meteorological Office two-dimensional (altitude and latitude) chemistry transport model is used to describe the trace gas life cycles and the fast photochemistry and hence to calculate the distribution of hydroxyl radicals. The mean concentration of hydroxyl radicals estimated in the lowest 0-12 km of the atmosphere is 1.2 x 10(6) molecules cm(-3) (0.74 x 10(6) molecules cm(-3) over 0-24 km). This concentration is in good agreement with estimates based on the OH radical concentrations required to balance the budgets of methyl chloroform and (CO)-C-14. The two-dimensional model was used to investigate the likely future methane concentrations that would build up in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IS92a emission scenario over the period up to the year 2050. Because of the decrease in likely future OH radical concentrations due to the influence of human activities| methane concentrations build up significantly faster than emissions. There are therefore important consequences for global warming from human interference in the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere. 4211,1996,5,4,The late Palaeozoic Idusi formation of southwest Tanzania: A record of change from glacial to postglacial conditions,The Idusi Formation forms the basal depositional unit of Karoo basins of southwestern Tanzania. It is defined as the rock unit limited by the unconformable contact with underlying Precambrian metamorphics and the base of the overlying| fluviatile Mpera Sandstone Member of the Mchuchuma Formation. The Idusi Formation is subdivided into the Lisimba Member| comprising diamictites| lutites with dropstones| slump masses and laminites| and the overlying Lilangu Member| consisting of black| pyritic and kerogenous lutites. The type section is at Idusi Gorge| situated 6 km east of Lake Nyasa on 10 degrees 17'50'' S. The thickness of the formation at the type section is 240 m| with the maximum observed thickness being 715 m. Plant fossils and palynological assemblages indicate an Asselian age| probably extending down into the Late Carboniferous. The basal diamictites contain striated and facetted clasts| which identify them as glacial deposits. They are mainly wash-out and slurried tillites and also| less frequently| lodgment tillites. These are overlain by proximal and distal deposits of proglacial lakes| which were laid down during the retreat of the glaciers. Laminates of the upper Lisimba Member demonstrate progressively stronger seasonal control. Further amelioration of the climate| with substantially increased biological production both on land and in the water| is demonstrated by the black lutites of the Lilangu Member. They represent euxinic lake sediments formed during the final deglaciation phase. Deposition of the overlying| coal-bearing Mchuchuma Formation occurred under a temperate climate. The duration of the Late Palaeozoic glaciation is estimated at about 20 to 25 Ma. The last quarter of this time span was characterized by climatic amelioration. Global warming was accompanied by an eustatic rise in sea level and a marked decrease in atmospheric CO2. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd 2468,1996,4,2,The migration of sessile organisms: A simulation model with measurable parameters,Palaeoecologists have shown that trees migrated at rates of 100 - 1000 m/yr in response to post-glacial warming. In order to predict the impact of forecast anthropogenic climate changes upon forest ecosystems we need to simulate how trees may migrate in response to the changes predicted for the next 1 - 2 centuries. These predictions must rake account of the impacts upon migration of human land-use and habitat fragmentation. We have developed a spatially-explicit mechanistic model (MIGRATE) able to simulate the migration of a single species across a realistically heterogeneous landscape. MIGRATE uses biological parameters that readily may be estimated from data in the literature or from field studies| and represents the landscape as a grid of cells| each with an associated carrying capacity. A one-dimensional version of MIGRATE has been compared both with Skellam's (1951) diffusion model and with the more recent analytical models of van den Bosch et al. (1990| 1992); despite its fundamentally different approach| MIGRATE provides comparable estimates of migration rates| given equivalent input parameters. An example is described that demonstrates the ability of the two-dimensional version of MIGRATE to simulate the likely pattern of spread of a species across a heterogeneous landscape. It is argued that MIGRATE| or models like it| will play a central role in a spatially-hierarchic modelling strategy that must be developed if we are to achieve the goal of simulating the likely response of trees| and other organisms| to both global climate change and the increasing pressures of human land-use.
2502,1996,3,3,The modelling of policy options for greenhouse gas mitigation in India,Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in India have important implications for global climate change. Emission trajectory and mitigation policies for India are analyzed using two models| a bottom-up energy systems optimization model (MARKAL) and a top-down macroeconomic model (Second Generation Model (SGM)). MARKAL is used to analyze technologies| peak electricity demand| carbon taxes| and a range of different policy scenarios. Carbon taxes and emissions permits are analyzed using SGM. In the reference scenario| energy use and carbon emissions increase nearly fourfold between 1995 and 2035. The analysis indicates that investment in infrastructure can substantially lower energy intensity and carbon intensity. A high carbon tax induces the substitution of natural gas and renewable energy for coal| and also causes a significant decrease in gross national product and consumption. The limitations of present models for analyzing mitigation policies for developing countries are discussed. Improvements for realistic representation of developing country dynamics and a policy agenda for GHG mitigation studies in developing countries are proposed. 4142,1996,3,3,The necessity of solar energy,The idea of limits to growth has| understandably| achieved notoriety since the days of Malthus and| more recently| the Club of Rome. However| there must be some limits to the ability of the Earth to sustain a growing population. Fortunately| population models suggest that the world's population will probably level out at about two to three times the present numbers over the next hundred years. The question is whether the Earth's resources are sufficient to sustain that population at a high standard of living for all. In this the key issue is energy. It is clear that present trends in energy consumption| especially oil| cannot be sustained much longer. Regardless of this| however| prudence demands a drastic reduction in fossil fuel consumption| in view of the possibility of global warming. It can be shown that| combined with greatly improved energy efficiency| a transition to a solar (renewable) energy based economy capable of sustaining the anticipated growth in the world economy| is possible|bur the constraints are extremely tight. 4172,1996,2,4,The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia,The distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia in thought to be highly dependent on temperature and relative humidity. A discriminant analysis model based on weather data and reported vector surveys was developed to predict the seasonal and geographic distribution of P. papatasi in this region. To simulate global warming| temperature values for 115 weather stations were increased by 1 degrees C| 3 degrees C| and 5 degrees C| and the outcome variable coded as unknownin the model. Probability of occurrence values were then predicted for each location with a weather station. Stations with positive probability of occurrence values for May| June| July| and August were considered locations where two or more life cycles of P. papatasi could occur and which could support endemic transmission of leishmaniasis and sandfly fever. Among 115 weather stations| 71 (62%) would be considered endemic with current temperature conditions; 14 (12%) additional stations could become endemic with an increase of 1 degrees C| 17 (15%) more with a 3 degrees C increase; and 12 (10%) more (all but one station) with a 5 degrees C increase. In addition to increased geographic distribution| seasonality of disease transmission could be extended throughout 12 months of the year in 7 (6%) locations with at least a 3 degrees C rise in temperature and in 29 (25%) locations with a 5 degrees C rise. 4101,1996,2,4,The Purple Saxifrage| Saxifraga oppositifolia| in Svalbard: Two taxa or one?,Several studies have demonstrated high levels of genetic (DNA)| ecophysiological| ecological| and morphological variation within the species Purple Saxifrage| Saxifraga oppositifolia| in Svalbard. It has recently been proposed that S. oppositifolia is represented by two conspicuously different subspecies in this archipelago: ssp. reptans| a late-flowering| prostrate ecotype of snow-protected| damp habitats| and ssp. pulvinata| an early-flowering| cushion-like ecotype of dry| wind-exposed heaths and ridges. It has also been suggested that the subspecies may be differentiated at the tetraploid and diploid levels| respectively| which would promote reproductive isolation. These hypotheses are tested by examining variation in morphology| ecology| and pollen size and stainability in 150 plants of S. oppositifolia growing in 50 vegetation samples at four sites in the Kongsfjorden area. Although analyses of the various data sets demonstrated the large variation within the species| the material could not be separated into distinct groups. The morphological variation was continuous along local ecological gradients. The pollen grains were fully stainable and the pollen diameter data showed a unimodal distribution| suggesting that the plants analysed represent only one ploidal level. These results reject a hypothesis that the morphologically intermediate plants are hybrids between two taxa at different ploidal levels. Thus| the conspicuous variation in S. oppositifolia in Svalbard probably results from local| in situ ecoclinal differentiation. Although this variation clearly is without taxonomic significance| it is important in the broader context of arctic conservation biology and the potential impact of global warming on arctic vegetation. 4265,1996,3,3,The quiet (energy) revolution - Analysing the dissemination of photovoltaic power systems in Kenya,The widespread introduction and adoption of renewable energy technologies remains high on virtually every national development policy agenda; renewable energy systems can assist national energy autonomy| decentralize resource management| promote environmental conservation| and serve as a means to reduce global warming. The track record of efforts to turn this noble ideology into successful technology transfer and dissemination| however| remains very mixed. It is a story of a few successes amid many failures. Here we document and examine the diffusion of small-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems in Kenya. At the same time that integrated energy plans and top-down models championing renewable energy futures are becoming increasingly common| a new power base| divorced from these grand schemes| has begun to emerge. Over the past decade| some 20 000 to 40 000 small PV systems| essentially all privately financed| have been installed in Kenya. Many valuable lessons for renewable energy research can be found here. The Kenyan case richly illustrates the dramatic role that actors on every scale| from grassroots to international| can have in accelerating - or when mismanaged| impeding - technology transfer and the elevation of renewable energy systems from niche applications to a prominent role in household empowerment| and decentralized and sustainable development initiatives. 4115,1996,2,4,The role of climate variability and global warming in the dieback of Northern Hardwoods,The severity of dieback in Northern Hardwood Forests of Canada and the United States this century (1910-1990) was reconstructed from pathology records and compared to indices of extreme weather stresses in the region| and to changes in global temperatures and climatic variability over the same period. Thaw-freeze and root-freeze events in winter and early spring were key factors in triggering (and synchronizing) severe episodes of dieback. Once trees were injured by freezing| forest dieback correlated significantly with heat and drought stress. Freezing (but not drought) stresses in Northern Hardwoods correlated significantly (r = 0.70| p < 0.001) with increasing global mean annual temperatures and low values of the Pacific tropical Southern Oscillation Index. Major diebacks did not occur early in the century at a time of notable freezing stress. Prior to 1940| the Northern Hardwoods consisted of relatively young populations of trees regrowing following extensive cutting and forest burning in the late 19th century (1860-1890). It appears that forest maturation is the key factor preconditioning trees to climatic injury| and dieback. A simple projection of climate and forest maturation ages suggested the recurrence of major dieback episodes on white/yellow birch| sugar maple and red spruce in the latter half of the 21st century (2045-2085). 4272,1996,3,3,The secondary benefits of CO2 abatement: How much emission reduction do they justify?,The combustion of fossil fuels emits a range of damaging pollutants| the emissions of which are reduced if fossil fuel use is reduced in order to achieve CO2 abatement. These reductions are termed the secondary benefits of such abatement. The paper reviews estimates of the size of these benefits. Although the estimates are few and uncertain| they uniformly suggest that the secondary benefits are of the same order of magnitude as the gross costs of medium to high levels of CO2 abatement| and are substantially larger than the (equally uncertain) estimates of the primary benefits of CO2 abatement| except where these benefits derive from consideration of damages from unabated global warming in the very long term. The paper concludes that the existence of significant secondary benefits greatly reinforces the economic case for an aggressive policy of CO2 abatement. 4212,1996,4,2,The spatial response of the climate system to explosive volcanic eruptions,Determining the spatial response of the climate system to volcanic forcing is of importance in the development of short-term climate prediction and in the assessment of anthropogenic factors such as global warming. The June 1991 eruption of the Philippine volcano| Mount Pinatubo| provides an important opportunity to test existing understanding and extend previous empirical analyses of the volcanic effect. We identify the spatial climate response to major historic eruptions in the surface air temperature and mean-sea-level pressure record and use this information to assess the impact of the Pinatubo eruption. The Pinatubo eruption clearly generated significant global cooling during the years after the event. The magnitude and timing of the cooling is similar to that associated with previous equatorial eruptions. There is good agreement between the spatial patterns of temperature and circulation anomalies associated with the historic eruptions and those following the Mount Pinatubo event. Evidence of limited higher latitude warming and a major change in the atmospheric circulation is found over the Northern Hemisphere during the first winter after the equatorial eruptions analysed| followed by widespread cooling| but limited change in the atmosphere circulation| during the subsequent 2 years. 2491,1996,2,4,The suitability of montane ecotones as indicators of global climatic change,Because of the difficulties involved with separating natural fluctuations in climatic variables from possible directional changes related to human activities (e.g.| heightened atmospheric CO2 concentrations related to fossil fuel consumption)| some researchers have focused on developing alternative indicators to detect hypothesized climate changes. It has| for example| been suggested that the locations of ecotones| transitions between adjacent ecosystems or biomes| should be monitored. It is assumed that changes in climate| especially increases in atmospheric temperature| will result in shifts in the location (altitude or latitude) of ecotones as plants respond to the newly imposed climatic conditions. In this article| we address the use of two montane ecotones| the alpine tree-line ecotone and the deciduous/Boreal forest ecotone| in monitoring global climatic change. In so doing| we 1) outline the factors that create and maintain each ecotone's position at a given location; 2) assess the projected response of the ecotones to various aspects of global warming; and 3) discuss the usefulness of both ecotones as indicators of global climate change. While it is likely that extended periods of directional climate change would bring about an altitudinal shift in the ranges of montane species and the associated ecotones| we question whether the response at either ecotone will be at a timescale useful for detecting climate change (a few decades) owing to disequilibrium related to upslope edaphic limitations and competitive interactions with established canopy and subcanopy individuals. Further| limitations related to the prediction of the complex and interacting effects of projected changes in temperature| precipitation and site water balance on photosynthetic processes of plant species raise uncertainties about the expected responses of both ecotones. 4274,1996,2,4,Thermal limits to salmonid distributions in the rocky mountain region and potential habitat loss due to global warming: A geographic information system (GIS) approach,The present distribution of salmonid fishes in Wyoming streams was found to be limited to regions where mean July air temperatures did not exceed 22 degrees C. Much of the present salmonid habitat in streams is predicted to be lost if climatic warming occurs. For increases of 1| 2| 3| 4| or 5 degrees C in mean July air temperature| the geographic area of Wyoming containing suitable salmonid habitat would be reduced by 16.2| 29.1| 38.5| 53.3| or 68.0%| respectively. This loss of geographic range would correspond to reductions of 7.5| 13.6| 21.0| 31.4| or 43.3% in the length of streams having suitable salmonid habitat. In the Rocky Mountain region| increases of 1| 2| 3| 4| or 5 degrees C in mean July air temperature would reduce the geographic area containing suitable salmonid habitat by 16.8| 35.6| 49.8| 62.0| or 71.8%| respectively. As warming proceeds| salmonid populations would be forced into increasingly higher elevations and would become fragmented as suitable habitat for coldwater fish becomes separated from main river channels and restricted to headwater streams. A geographic information system (GIS) proved useful for combining the various databases necessary to assess the potential impact of global warming on salmonid populations. 4096,1996,4,6,Time-delayed response of the solar total irradiance variation to long-term solar magnetic cycle amplitude modulation as inferred by sunspot relative number and isotope data of Be-10 in the Greenland ice core and land air temperature variation of the earth,We found that the time profile of the land air temperature anomalies followed the time profile of the magnetic field variation with remarkable similarity and delay time of about 200 years for both cases of the instrumentally measured temperature data and the data reconstructed from tree ring growth rates of the northern north American continent and the polar Ural mountains of northern Siberia. If this is indeed the case| (i) the present global warming will turn to global cooling in near future. If we assume that the land air temperature anomalies can be a good proxy of the solar total irradiance variation| the present result means that (ii) the present global warming of the Earth is a result of release of heat which has been stored in the solar convection zone in the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century. 4177,1996,2,4,Total carbon and nitrogen in the soils of the world,The soil is important in sequestering atmospheric CO2 and in emitting trace gases (e.g. CO2| CH4 and N2O) that are radiatively active and enhance the 'greenhouse' effect. Land use changes and predicted global warming| through their effects on net primary productivity| the plant community and soil conditions| may have important effects on the size of the organic matter pool in the soil and directly affect the atmospheric concentration of these trace gases. A discrepancy of approximately 350 x 10(15) g (or Pg) of C in two recent estimates of soil carbon reserves worldwide is evaluated using the geo-referenced database developed for the World Inventory of Soil Emission Potentials (WISE) project. This database holds 4353 soil profiles distributed globally which are considered to represent the soil units shown on a 1/2 degrees latitude by 1/2 degrees longitude version of the corrected and digitized 1:5 M FAO-UNESCO Soil Map of the World. Total soil carbon pools for the entire land area of the world| excluding carbon held in the Litter layer and charcoal| amounts to 2157-2293 Pg of C in the upper 100 cm. Soil organic carbon is estimated to be 684-724 Pg of C in the upper 30 cm| 1462-1548 Pg of C in the upper 100 cm| and 2376-2456 Pg of C in the upper 200 cm. Although deforestation| changes in land use and predicted climate change can alter the amount of organic carbon held in the superficial soil layers rapidly| this is less so for the soil carbonate carbon. An estimated 695-748 Pg of carbonate-C is held in the upper 100 cm of the world's soils. Mean C:N ratios of soil organic matter range from 9.9 for arid Yermosols to 25.8 for Histosols. Global amounts of soil nitrogen are estimated to be 133-140 Pg of N for the upper 100 cm. Possible changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen dynamics caused by increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and the predicted associated rise in temperature are discussed. 4259,1996,2,4,Trends of some airborne tree pollen in the Nordic countries and Austria| 1980-1993 - A comparison between Stockholm| Trondheim| Turku and Vienna,Long term trends in the occurrence of airborne pollen might help in elucidating the probability or unlikelihood of developments which have been predicted in theory such as global warming or forest decline. We have investigated and compared the trends over a 14 year period (1980-1993) of five selected common tree pollen types (Alnus| Corylus| Betula| Pinus| and Ulmus) from three sites in North Europe (Stockholm| Trondheim| Turku) and one in Central Europe (Vienna) in terms of the start| peak| end| and duration of the season| peak values and annual totals| using data from the European pollen data bank. The existence of trends has been investigated by calculating correlation against years and the statistical significance of the regression lines has been examined at the 5% probability level (p <0.05). A consistent trend in the earlier commencement of the flowering season is observed in all cases| as well as an earlier incidence of peak days. A marked trend to an earlier end of the season was also found in the majority of cases. In most cases| the length of the season showed a trend towards prolongation although this was not significant. Both the peak values and the annual totals exhibit clear trends towards higher values. Since both the start of the season and peak days are primarily temperature-dependant| the clear trends towards an earlier start and peak day in practically all the pollen types and sites examined supports the theory of global warming or| at least| a temporary rise in air temperature over the seasons covered by this investigation. The same conclusion can be drawn from the fact| that most of the trends of pollen frequency show an increase in the number of airborne pollen grains. It was not possible to comment on the possibility of forest decline| as there is insufficient knowledge on the influence of environmental factors on pollen production. Our material shows no trends which are distinct and consistent enough in terms of either decreasing or increasing annual totals or peak values to throw light on the question of forest decline. 2486,1996,2,4,Tropical cyclones and coastal inundation under enhanced greenhouse conditions,The behavior of tropical cyclones under enhanced greenhouse conditions has been the subject of considerable speculation Typical spatial scales of these cyclones are on the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers. Therefore they cannot be simulated in global climate models with resolutions of several hundred kilometers. Thus speculation has been largely based on extrapolation from their present observed distribution| and on simple parametric relationships. However| the conditions under which tropical cyclones from| the intensities they reach| and their usual paths depend on a number of dynamic and thermodynamic factors that may change in complex ways with changing climate. Recent studies using finer resolution global and regional climate models| sensitivity studies that model individual cyclones| and parametric studies have been reviewed. These suggest that the future behavior of tropical cyclones remains an open question with changes of either sign possible in numbers and intensities. The paper also describes the combined effect on coastal inundation of mean sea level rise and changes in storm surges due to tropical and extratropical cyclones. Impact studies highlight the importance of taking both these factors into account and the highly site-specific nature of the problem. 4111,1996,3,3,Urban reactions to the global warming issue: Agenda setting in Toronto and Chicago,Little research has been done about what cities could or should do concerning potential global warming. A few cities have adopted programs to deal with impacts they perceive may occur| and a worldwide network of 100 cities involved with CO2 reduction has recently emerged. Global warming is a new issue for cities and most are only dimly aware of how it may affect them. Toronto| through the efforts of a few leaders| has become a pioneer in the development of an urban response program to global warming. It has charged a city agency to deal with global warming issues| in particular emissions reduction. Chicago is aware of the issue and is concerned about the negative impacts global warming could produce. While behind Toronto| Chicago is moving forward in a number of areas. These two cities illuminate the policy-making process for global warming at the urban level and the role 'policy entrepreneurs' can play at this level. In comparing the two cities| a common model of policy development is utilized. 4255,1996,2,4,Variation of snow| winter precipitation and winter air temperature during the last century at Nagaoka| Japan,Reduced amounts of snow in the eight winters from 1986-87 to 1993-94 at Nagaoka| Japan| seem to he due to a winter air-temperature rise. The winter air temperature has shown a cyclic variation with a gradual increase in the past 100 years. The linear rate of the temperature rise in the past century was calculated as 1.35 degrees C per 100 years. Both the maximum snow depth and winter precipitation showed an inversely positive correlation with winter mean air temperature. The square of the statistical correlation coefficient r(2) was calculated as 0.321 and 0.107| respectively. Statistically smoothed curves of the maximum snow depth and winter precipitation showed maximum values in 1940. Fluctuations in deviation of the maximum snow depth showed smaller values than in precipitation. The minimum winter mean air temperature obtained from a 10 year moving average curve was found in 1942| and the deviation from the climatic mean changed from negative to positive in 1949. The change in sign of the temperature deviation and the increase of the deviation may be attributable to global warming. 4128,1996,2,4,Vulnerability and adaptation of the larch forest in eastern Siberia to climate change,The most widely distributed coniferous forests in the world are the larch forests. In the Russian Federation they occupy 27.6 x 10(6) ha. In Siberia| the larch species Larix russica generally grows west of the Yenissei River| and Larix gmelinii grows to the east. The morphological and physiological features oft. gmelinii make it possible for this species to grow in the far north of eastern Siberia| where climate conditions are more severe: The range of air temperature fluctuations in this region is more than 100 degrees C| from 38 degrees C down to 64 degrees C below zero. One of the major adaptions to unfavorable soil conditions is provided by a specific feature of root formation in L. gmelinii| in which the apex central root dies off at the permafrost border and a root system develops in upper soil layer. The major larch vulnerability factors are natural and anthropogenic fires and damage caused by insects| which become more frequent with hot and dry weather. The consequences of projected global warming could be both positive and negative for larch forests. Permafrost melting may result in improved soil nutrition in the areas the larch forests occupy| yet the frequency of forest fires and damage by pathogens are likely to increase. Global warming is expected to cause forest dieback and increased areas of steppe in the southern regions of eastern Siberia. 4130,1996,4,3,Vulnerability assessment of Angat water reservoir to climate change,Global warming due to an anticipated doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is expected to alter the earth's climate system within the next century. The potential changes in the climate system could affect hydrological cycles and processes. Possible impacts of climate change on water resources should be assessed to evaluate probable adaptation measures. In the Philippines| a preliminary assessment of the vulnerability of water resources to climate change and variability was undertaken. For this particular study| the Angat Reservoir was chosen as the study area Because of its socioeconomic importance| it is useful to assess its vulnerability to climate change. A rainfall-runoff simulation model| WATBAL| was used to determine the effect of temperature and rainfall changes| based on CO2 doubling| on inflow to the reservoir. Climate change scenarios developed from results from three general circulation models and incremental changes were used. The results showed that changes in temperature and rainfall could affect runoff either positively or negatively. Using the temperature and rainfall changes from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model there was a 32% increase in runoff and with the Canadian Climate Centre Model| thee was a 15% decrease in runoff. Under a climate scenario generated by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office model| runoff is estimated to increase by 5%. The use of incremental scenarios revealed the strong sensitivity of runoff to changes in rainfall as compared with changes in temperature. 2524,1996,2,3,Vulnerability assessment of water resources in Egypt to climatic change in the Nile Basin,The impacts of global climate change on the water resources of the Nile River Basin were evaluated using simulation models. Four climate change scenarios were evaluated (baseline| GISS| GFDL| and UKMO). The complete impact of climatic changes in the Nile cannot be fully predicted with confidence| as some models forecast increased flows| while others project significant decreases. However| it was observed that the Nile River flow is extremely sensitive to ambient temperature and precipitation changes| and it is possible that the effects of climatic fluctuations would be severe. Several water management options were identified to help adapt Nile River management to a changing global climate. 2525,1996,2,3,Vulnerability of forest resources to global climate change: Case study of Cameroon and Ghana,The response and feedbacks of forest systems to global environmental change| including the ecosystems of West Africa| are expected to be profound. A comparative assessment of current and future forest distribution in Cameroon and Ghana in response to land-use change and global climate change was completed. From 1970 to 1990| the forest area of Cameroon and Ghana declined dramatically due to harvesting and degradation| averaging 0.6 and 1.3% each year| respectively. The areal distribution of West African forest systems is projected to shift 5 to 15%| based on 4 General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios and the Holdridge Life Zone Classification System. Loss of forest habitat due to destruction| degradation and climate change is projected to increase animal and plant species loss. Adaptation of evergreen and deciduous forest systems to global environmental change poses many challenges for Cameroon and Ghana. Application of low-input| indigenous resource management options| which have been practiced on a sustained basis for centuries| may be a feasible adaptation goal. 2487,1996,2,4,Vulnerability of Sri Lanka tea production to global climate change,The tea industry is Sri Lanka's main net foreign exchange earner and source of income for the majority of laborers. Tea yield is greatly influenced by weather| and especially by droughts| which cause irreparable losses because irrigation is seldom used on tea plantations. At the other extreme| heavy rains erode top soil and wash away fertilizers and other chemicals. In the recently published Sri Lanka country report on climate change| it was reported that the island will experience extreme rainfall intensities and warmer temperatures as a result of climate change. The possibility of a 10% increase in the length of dry and wet seasons per year in the main plantation area was also indicated. Thus both drought damages and soil losses in tea production areas will increase in the years to come. An analysis of the results of field experiments with weather data shows that increases in temperature| soil moisture deficit| and saturation vapor pressure deficit in the low elevations will adversely affect growth and yield of tea Reports have also shown that about 30 cm of soil has already been eroded from upland tea plantations. Under these circumstances| the tea industry in Sri Lanka is clearly vulnerable to predicted climate changes| and subsequently greater economic| social| and environmental problems. This paper discusses the various aspects of the adverse effects of climate change on Sri Lanka's tea industry. 4233,1996,2,4,Vulnerability of the coastal zone of The Gambia to sea level rise and development of response strategies and adaptation options,The coastal zone of The Gambia consists of 70 km open ocean coast and 200 km sheltered coast. Only about 20 km of the open coastline is significantly developed and this includes Banjul (the capital city)| Bakau and Cape St. Mary| Fajara and the Tourism Development Area (TDA). Tourism is the most important economic sector in the coastal zone and contributes about 10% of the government revenue. Fisheries and agriculture are also important coastal industries. In this study the Aerial Videotape-assisted Vulnerability Analysis (AVVA) technique has been used to provide a detailed analysis of vulnerability to sea level rise| and adaptation strategies have been identified. The data used includes a video recording of the coastline| color infrared and black and white aerial photography| topographic maps| bathymetric maps| a geological map of The Gambia and still photographs. The data have been used to characterize the coastal zone into 9 geomorphological units| wherein the cultural and heritage sites of economic importance have been delineated and characterized according to their biophysical and economic importance. Future erosion rates have been projected by applying the Bruun Rule| and future total land loss due to inundation in response to global warming and accelerated sea level rise has been determined. The sea level rise scenarios considered are 0.2 m| 0.5 m| and 1.0 m per century. Inundation is estimated to be about 92.32 x 10(6) m(2) for a 1.0 m sea level rise| 45.89 x 10(6) m(2) for a 0.5 m sea level rise and 4.96 x 10(6) m(2) for a 0.2 m sea level rise. The greater part of this area lost will be wetlands and mangrove systems important for fish spawning areas and habitats for wildlife. Shoreline retreat is estimated to vary between about 6.8 m in cliffy areas to about 880 m for more flat and sandy areas based on the Bruun Rule. Population and physical structures at risk have been determined. Attempts have been made to report this loss in monetary terms| but firm figures are not yet available. Only one unit of the coastal zone has been evaluated. In this unit| it is expected that the capital city will be completely lost through both erosion and inundation within 50 to 60 yr with a total of 42000 persons displaced. Lands and physical structures to be lost are estimated at US$ 217 million. Response strategies and adaptation options identified include: innovative sand management| building and rehabilitation of groins| construction of revetments to protect important areas| construction of sea-walls/bulkheads| public outreach and awareness| building regulations and urban growth planning| wetland preservation and mitigation| and development of a coastal zone management plan. 2522,1996,2,3,Vulnerability of Zimbabwe forests to global climate change,The impacts of global climate change on forest distribution was evaluated using the Holdridge life zone and GISS general circulation model scenarios. Across Zimbabwe| 17 to 18% of the total land area is projected to shift from subtropical thorn woodland and subtropical dry forest to tropical very dry forest under the GISS scenario. The projected shift in forest distribution is attributable to a future decline in precipitation patterns and an increase in ambient temperature. 4127,1996,2,4,Water reserves in soils as affected by global climatic warming: Example forecast for eastern Europe,With the awaited global warming by 1 degrees C| the same water reserves in spring will be proper to tundra| podzolic| sod-podzolic| gray forest soils and chernozems. They will be higher by 100-150 mm in chestnut| cinnamonic| and brown semidesertic soils. The maximum summer drying is thought to result in a decrease of water reserves by 30-50 mm in tundra soils and by 50-80 mm in taiga ones. There will be no changes in steppe zone while| in dry-steppe| water reserves will increase by 20-60 mm. If the mean global temperature rises by 2 degrees C| water reserves will be the same as in the previous case in spring| whereas a decrease by 40-60 mm in summer is probable for sod-podzolic soils and an increase by 50-60 mm may be expected in the dry-steppe zone. 4248,1996,2,4,Waterfront planning and global warming,Waterfronts today are valuable untapped resources with great potential for reshaping our region. The vast stretches of shoreline that lie unused in the wake of industrial decline and transportation changes (ref. I . p. I) have created opportunity and challenge for the future.
Coastal and waterfront development became popular in the 1960s (ref. 2| p. 10) and has increased so that nearly 50 percent of the nation's population lives in the coastal area (ref. 3| p. 1). If global warming occurs| the ever-accelerating development at the shore will pose great risks from both the estimated increase in storms and hurricanes (ref. 4| pp. I | 13| cover) and the rise in sea level (ref. 5. p. 12) with the related floodingand erosion. We are at a critical juncture in planning. caught between an increasing market for waterfront development| vast quantities of underused waterfront property| and Mother Nature's lessons of flooding| sea level rise| and global warming.
The questions for waterfront planners are twofold: What is likely to happen on the seemingly unlimited decayed waterfront stretches given the economic and political factors and| secondly| what are some of the ideas surfacing today that address sea level rise and global warming?
4113,1996,3,2,Working fluids for mechanical refrigeration - Invited paper presented at the 19th International Congress of Refrigeration| The Hague| August 1995,The phasing out of fully halogenated halocarbons becomes effective at the end of 1995 by international agreement. Under the same ozone depletion issue| the companion fluids HCFCs are suffering a similar fate| as they are considered controlled substances with a virtual phase-out by 2020| and more drastic reductions may be proposed in the near future. Some international action might also be agreed upon on refrigerants with regard to the threatened environmental emergency of anthropogenic global warming. Therefore| in choosing replacement fluids primary concern must be given to minimising the total warming impact| which| for most applications| calls for improved energy efficiency. During recent years| industry has scrutinised and proposed a number of new synthesised products as immediate drop-in or long-term replacements for fluids harmful to the environment. Together with some single-component new generation refrigerants| quite a few two-component| three-component or even four-component mixtures| both with zeotropic and azeotropic behaviour| are being considered. The main issues associated with the use of the new generation refrigerants are discussed| such as behaviour with oil; flammability; efficient use of temperature glides| fractionation and heat-transfer degradation with zeotropic mixtures. The full environmentally friendly option of resorting to natural fluids is also considered by examining some recent innovative applications as refrigerants of some hydrocarbons| ammonia| carbon dioxide| water and air. Copyright (C) 1996 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd and IIR 4751,1997,4,4,1|1|1|3|3|-pentafluorobutane (HFC-365mfc): Atmospheric degradation and contribution to radiative forcing,The rate constant for the reaction of the hydroxyl radical with 1|1|1|7|7-pentafluorobutane (HFC-365mfc) has been determined over the temperature range 278-323 K using a relative rate technique. The results provide a value of k(OH + CF3CH2CF2CH3) = 2.0 X 10(-12) exp(- 1750 +/- 400/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) based on k(OH + CH3CCl3) = 1.8 X 10(-12) exp (- 1550 +/- 150/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for the rate constant of the reference reaction. Assuming the major atmospheric removal process is via reaction with OH in the troposphere| the rate constant data from this work gives an estimate of 10.8 years for the tropospheric lifetime of HFC-365mfc. The overall atmospheric lifetime obtained by taking into account a minor contribution from degradation in the stratosphere| is estimated to be 10.2 years. The rate constant for the reaction of Cl atoms with 1|1|1|3|3-pentafluorobutane was also determined at 298 +/- 2 K using the relative rate method| k(Cl + CF3CH2CF2CH3) = (1.1 +/- 0.3) x 10(-15) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The chlorine initiated photooxidation of CF3CH2CF2CH3 was investigated from 273-330 K and as a function of O-2 pressure at 1 atmosphere total pressure using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy Under all conditions the major carbon-containing products were CF2O and CO2| with smaller amounts of CF3O3CF3. In order to ascertain the relative importance of hydrogen abstraction from the -CH2- and -CH3 groups in CF3CH2CF2CH3| rate constants for the reaction of OH radicals and CI atoms with the structurally similar compounds CF3CH2CCl2F and CF3CH2CF3 were also determined at 298 K k(OH + CF3CH2CCl2F) = (8 +/- 3) X 10(-16) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1); k(OH + CF3CH2CF3) = (3.5 +/- 1.5) X 10(-16) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1); k(Cl + CF3CH2CCl2F) = (3.5 +/- 1.5) X 10(-17) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)]; k(Cl + CF3CH2CF3) < 1 X 10(-17) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The results indicate that the most probable site for H-atom abstraction from CF3CH2CF2CH3 is the methyl group and that the formation of carbonyl compounds containing more than a single carbon atom will be negligible under atmospheric conditions| carbonyl difluoride and carbon dioxide being the main degradation products. Finally| accurate infrared absorption cross-sections have been measured for CF3CH2CF2CH3| and jointly used with the calculated overall atmospheric lifetime of 10.2 years| in the NCAR chemical-radiative model| to determine the radiative forcing of climate by this CFC alternative. The steady-state Halocarbon Global Warming Potential| relative to CFC-11| is 0.17. The Global Warming Potentials relative to CO2 are found to be 2210| 790| and 250| for integration time-horizons of 20| 100| and 500 years| respectively. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons| Inc. 2402,1997,2,4,A 200-year record of gale frequency| Edinburgh| Scotland: possible link with high-magnitude volcanic eruptions,Most research concerned with the relationship between volcanic activity and global climate change has focused on the impacts that volcanoes have on atmospheric temperature. Very little attention| however| has been given to the effect of volcanic eruptions on patterns of storminess. Here we present a historical record of gale-day frequency for Edinburgh| Scotland| extending from AD 1780 to 1988 (the Mossman-Hickey chronology)| which we believe represents the longest historical record of gales in Europe. Calculation of gale-day frequency for this time interval shows three clear peaks in storminess that follow the volcanic eruptions of Tambora (1815)| Krakatoa (1883) and El Chichon (1982). It appears that the greatest periods of storminess evident in the Edinburgh record during the last 200 years have taken place during relatively short intervals following major episodes of volcanism. If correct| the processes linking high-magnitude volcanic eruptions to storminess in the North Atlantic need to be included in IPCC research that presently focuses most attention on linkages between increased storminess and the effects of global warming. 4810,1997,2,3,A climate-change scenario for the Columbia River basin,This work describes the method used to generate a climate-change scenario for the Columbia River basin. The scenario considers climate patterns that may change if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2)| or its greenhouse gas equivalent| were to double over pre-Industrial Revolution values. Given the current rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration| doubling could occur within the next 50 to 100 years. The Columbia River basin is in a transition climate zone between predominating maritime to the west| arctic to the north| and continental to the east. Consequently| it is difficult to characterize through means and averages. Therefore| many of the current stochastic methods for developing climate-change scenarios cannot directly apply to the basin. To circumvent this problem| a composite approach was taken to generate a climate scenario that considers knowledge of current regional climate controls| available output from general circulation and regional climate models| and observed changes in climate. The resulting climate-change scenario suggests that precipitation could increase substantially during winter (+20 to +50 percent) and moderately during spring and autumn (+5 to +35 percent). A slight decrease (0 to -5 percent) in summer precipitation is possible| except for the southeastern portions of the basin that may experience an increase in convective precipitation (+5 percent). Low-elevation (<1 kilometer) temperatures throughout the year may increase 1 to 3 degrees C| with greatest increases during winter. This amount of temperature change is possible because of an expected loss of low-elevation snow cover. At high elevations| increased cloud cover could cause average temperatures to decrease during winter but be synchronized with possible warming at low elevations during summer. The diurnal range of temperature could decrease| especially in summer and autumn. 4777,1997,2,4,A climatological analysis of the Koppen Dfa/Dfb| boundary in eastern North America| 1901-1930,In 1952| Jack Villmow proposed a new and more northerly border for the Dfa/Dfb climate boundary in eastern North America. This paper follows from Villmow's work with an improved data set over a longer period and considers the issue of anthropogenically induced global warming as a possible cause for explaining any change in the boundary. Data were obtained from the Global Historical Climatology Network's Long-Term Monthly Temperature| Precipitation| Sea Level Pressure| and Station Pressure Data Analysis included extracting the annual maximum mean monthly temperature values for 160 weather observing stations Ln the United States and Canada and mapping the 22 degrees C isotherm (Dfa/Dfb boundary) for three 30-year sequential climatological periods beginning with 1901-1930. Although the Dfa/Dfb boundary did vary latitudinally in each 30-year period| no evidence of warming was found in the north central and northeastern US| or the southern peninsula of Ontario over the 30-year period| particularly in the most recent 30-year comparison (1961-1990). 2443,1997,3,2,A comparison of greenhouse gas mitigation options,The mitigation of atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions is important for minimizing the anthropogenic contributions to climate change. These concerns have led to the investigation of many technologies and strategies for mitigation| both in the U.S. and abroad. One technology explored at ANL is integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power generation| which is based on extraction of CO2 by a solvent. The IGCC process reduces CO2 production through efficient fuel use| which makes CO2 recovery less expensive than conventional systems. Recovery using the following solvents was explored in detail: monoethanolamine (MEA)| glycol| chilled methanol| and hot potassium carbonate. Other incentive-based options for mitigation have also been explored| including market incentives (carbon fees and tradable permits) and regulatory measures. Our work suggests a complex global strategy will be necessary to optimize options for mitigation of global climate change| one that takes into account both local and regional considerations. 2459,1997,2,4,A comparison of scenarios for the effect of global climate change on cotton growth and yield,If global surface temperatures change as projected because of radiative and physiological effects of a changing environment| we should expect important changes in crop production in the 21st Century. Experiments were conducted at ambient and twice ambient atmospheric CO2 concentrations at five temperatures. The 1995 temperature in Mississippi was used as a reference with the other temperatures being 1995 minus 2 degrees C| and 1995 plus 2| 5 and 7 degrees C. Daily and seasonal variation and amplitudes were maintained. Seedlings had 4-6 times as much leaf area and dry weight at 20 d after emergence when grown at 28 degrees C as at 23 degrees C (1995 ambient) average temperature during that growth period. Number of days to first square| flower| and open boil decreased as temperature increased. Double atmospheric CO2 did not affect these developmental rates. Temperatures above 28 degrees C| or 1995 average whole-season temperatures| were detrimental to mid-and late-season boil retention and growth. No fruits were retained to maturity at 1995 plus 5 or 7 degrees C. However| whole season vegetative growth was not significantly reduced by temperature 5-7 degrees C above the 1995 ambient conditions. Twice ambient CO2 caused about 40% increase in vegetative dry matter accumulation across temperatures. In a separate experiment| similar results were obtained on fruiting cotton grown at a range of temperatures based on long-term average US Midsouth July temperatures. Therefore| if global warming occurs as predicted| food and fibre production in such high-temperature and humid environments may be more limited to vegetative structures and the animals that consume vegetative structures. 4881,1997,3,3,A comparison of two algorithms for estimating carbon dioxide emissions after forest clearing,The clearing of forest during the last two centuries has contributed to the growth of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the prospect of global warming. The OECD| under the auspices of the IPCC| has developed a set of standard procedures for estimating greenhouse gas exchanges| including carbon dioxide exchange from forest clearing and regrowth. We present an alternative algorithm for estimating carbon dioxide exchange from forest clearing and regrowth based on a simple plant/soil model (DCDT) and compare it with the IPCC/OECD algorithm using two worked examples: constant clearing and constant regrowth of a semi-arid mallee forest in Australia. In these examples| the initial and final (equilibrium) carbon in the plant and soil are the same in both algorithms. The algorithms differ in their time scales of response. The IPCC/OECD algorithm| when compared with the DCDT algorithm| overestimates the carbon dioxide emissions from converting mallee forest to wheat cropping by up to 33%| averaged over a decade. The IPCC/OECD algorithm| when compared with the DCDT algorithm| underestimates the emission from regenerating the cleared land by as much as 100% over a decade. These differences arise when the rates of land clearing and regeneration vary on a time scale shorter than that for the biosphere to equilibrate after a land use change or disturbance. This study shows that the improved quantification of the processes of carbon dynamics in the plant/litter/soil system may be as important as improving the mapping of areas cleared and current carbon pools in reducing the uncertainties associated with CO2 emissions from forest clearing. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4729,1997,3,3,A comprehensive approach to climate change: Political and scientific considerations,The concept of comprehensiveness embedded in the climate convention is discussed with attention to political and scientific considerations that need to be taken into account for this approach to serve as a tool for enhancing the effectiveness of a climate regime. The manners in which the approach may serve as an instrument for facilitating negotiation and implementation of a climate regime are discussed| and an operational definition is suggested. A key question with regard to the employment of a comprehensive approach in climate politics concerns how well methodologies for comparing gases perform. This question is discussed with regard to Global Warming Potentials (GWPs). When the most important greenhouse gases are concerned| we suggest that in the absence of better alternatives| the use of GWPs may serve as a preliminary tool for policy making until better methods are developed. It is emphasized that the choice of time horizon has significant ecological and political implications that should be taken into account. 4765,1997,4,4,A coupled theory of tropical climatology: Warm pool| cold tongue| and walker circulation,Based on results from analytic and general circulation models| the authors propose a theory for the coupled warm pool| cold tongue| and Walker circulation system. The intensity of the coupled system is determined by the coupling strength| the local equilibrium time| and latitudinal differential heating. Most importantly| this intensity is strongly regulated in the coupled system| with a saturation level that can be reached at a modest coupling strength. The saturation west-east sea surface temperature difference (and the associated Walker circulation) corresponds to about one-quarter of the latitudinal differential equilibrium temperature. This regulation is caused primarily by the decoupling of the SST gradient from a strong ocean current. The author's estimate suggests that the present Pacific is near the saturation state. Furthermore| the much weaker Walker circulation system in the Atlantic Ocean is interpreted as being the result of the influence of the adjacent land| which is able to extend into the entire Atlantic to change the zonal distribution of the trade wind. The theory is also applied to understand the tropical climatology in coupled GCM simulations| in the Last Glacial Maximum climate| and in the global warming climate| as well as in the regulation of the tropical sea surface temperature. 4823,1997,2,4,A geophysiologist's thoughts on the natural sulphur cycle,The climate depends on the atmospheric abundance of sulphur aerosols at all levels up to the stratopause. Volcanoes| combustion and biological emissions all contribute and usually result in cooling. The history of this topic is lively and goes back at least to the eighteenth century with Benjamin Franklin's comments on the cooling effects of the sulphuric acid aerosol from the Icelandic volcano| Laki. Mitchell first drew attention to the potential cooling effects of combustion aerosols. Charlson and his colleagues proposed that emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS) from ocean algae might also be important. More recently| Lovelock & Kump drew attention to the decline of biological sulphur emissions with global warming and the possible consequence of a positive feedback on climate change. The geophysiological aspects| which arose from the Gaia hypothesis in the early 1970s| form an important part of the account that follows. 4833,1997,2,2,A numerical simulation of anthropogenic climate change,Results are presented from a recent high resolution transient climate change experiment carried out at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology| Hamburg. The experiment is discussed in the light of the greenhouse warming experiment by Arrhenius| The transient calculation started in January 1860 and continued until the end of the 21st century. The effect of individual greenhouse gases has been incorporated using observed data until 1990 and thereafter assumed emissions according to (IPCC) scenario IS92a. Validation of the coupled model shows a realistic simulation of observed coupled modes such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The simulated low frequency variability at middle and high latitudes resembles| by and large| the observed one. A detailed evaluation over Scandinavia shows that the model reproduces the typical very strong interannual variability of this region. The result shows a small warming until present in broad agreement with observations. There is a strong positive feedback with water vapor but a negative feedback with clouds. The evaluation is concentrated at the time the concentration of the greenhouse gases has doubled compared to the starting time. Such a doubling is expected to take place in 2030-2040. The energy cycle is slowly changing and a gradual increase in the absorption of short-wave radiation in the atmosphere and an increase in the net long-wave radiation at the ground are noted. The latent heat flux from the surface of the earth increases while the sensible heat flux decreases. The hydrological cycle increases very slowly and mainly over land. After 1990| a rapid warming is starting which goes on with superimposed minor multidecadal variations until the end of the run. Overall global warming amounts to some 3.5 degrees C for the period 1990 to 2100. At the time of greenhouse gas doubling| the global warming amounts to 1.9 degrees C. The typical feedback pattern for the early part of the run continues with increasing amplitude and so do the changes in the hydrological cycle. The warming pattern shows a strong amplitude in the Arctic associated with a marked retreat of Arctic sea ice. The overall warming over the Scandinavian area is one to two degrees higher than the global average superimposed upon a similar high interannual variability as in the present climate. 4755,1997,4,4,A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability,The North Atlantic is one of the few places on the globe where the atmosphere is linked to the deep ocean through air-sea interaction. While the internal variability of the atmosphere by itself is only predictable over a period of one to two weeks| climate Variations are potentially predictable for much longer periods of months or even years because of coupling with the ocean. This work presents details from the first study to quantify the predictability for simulated multidecadal climate variability over the North Atlantic. The model used for this purpose is the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model used extensively for studies of global warming and natural climate variability. This model contains fluctuations of the North Atlantic and high-latitude oceanic circulation with variability concentrated in the 40-60 year range. Oceanic predictability is quantified through analysis of the time-dependent behavior of large-scale empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns for the meridional stream function| dynamic topography| 170 m temperature| surface temperature and surface salinity. The results indicate that predictability in the North Atlantic depends on three main physical mechanisms. The first involves the oceanic deep convection in the subpolar region which acts to integrate atmospheric fluctuations| thus providing for a red noise oceanic response as elaborated by Hasselmann. The second involves the large-scale dynamics of the thermohaline circulation| which can cause the oceanic variations to have an oscillatory character on the multidecadal time scale. The third involves nonlocal effects on the North Atlantic arising from periodic anomalous fresh water transport advecting southward from the polar regions in the East Greenland Current. When the multidecadal oscillatory variations of the thermohaline circulation are active| the first and second EOF patterns for the North Atlantic dynamic topography have predictability time scales on the order of 10-20 y| whereas EOF-1 of SST has predictability time scales of 5-7 y. When the thermohaline variability has weak multidecadal power| the Hasselmann mechanism is dominant and the predictability is reduced by at least a factor of two. When the third mechanism is in an extreme phase| the North Atlantic dynamic topography patterns realize a 10-20 year predictability time scale. Additional analysis of SST in the Greenland Sea| in a region associated with the southward propagating fresh water anomalies| indicates the potential for decadal scale predictability for this high latitude region as well. The model calculations also allow insight into regional variations of predictability| which might be useful information for the design of a monitoring system for the North Atlantic. Predictability appears to break down most rapidly in regions of active convection in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic. 4715,1997,2,3,A scenario of storm surge statistics for the German bight at the expected time of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration,Past variations of water levels at Cuxhaven| Germany (German bight)| are examined| and a scenario for future changes due to expected global warming is derived. The observational record of Cuxhaven water levels features a linear upward trend in the annual mean water level of about 30 cm 100 yr(-1) overlaid by irregular variations due to synoptic disturbances. These irregular storm-related variations are shown to have remained mostly stationary since the beginning of observations until today. A scenario for future conditions is derived by means of a two-step downscaling approach. First|a ''time slice experiment'' is used to obtain a regionally disaggregated scenario for the time mean circulation for the time of expected doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Then| an empirical downscaling model is derived| which relates intramonthly percentiles of storm-related water-level variations at Cuxhaven to variations in the monthly mean air pressure field over Europe and the northern North Atlantic. Past variations of storm-related intramonthly percentiles are well reproduced by the downscaling model so that the statistical model may be credited with skill. The combined time slice-statistical model ''predicts|'' for the expect time of doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the decade around 2035| an insignificant rise of the 50%| 80%| and 90% percentiles of storm-related water-level variations in Cuxhaven of less than 10 cm| which is well within the range of natural interdecadal variability. These numbers have to be added to the rise in mean sea level due to thermal expansion and other slow processes. 4877,1997,3,3,A study of the role of end-of-pipe technologies in reducing CO2 emissions,Reducing CO2 emissions to cope with global warming is one of the most challenging issues for the global energy system in the 21(st) century. To deal with the tremendous challenge| we should promote long range global efforts keeping in mind the wide scope of technological possibilities. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4788,1997,4,3,A tropical influence on global climate,A potential influence of tropical sea surface temperature on the global climate response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration is tested using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean. The warming is significantly reduced when sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific cold tongue region between latitudes 2.25 degrees N and 2.25 degrees S are held at the control simulation values. Warming of the global mean temperature outside of the cold tongue region is reduced from 2.4 degrees C in the unconstrained case to 1.9 degrees C when the sea surface temperature constraint is applied. The decrease in the warming results from a positive net heat flux into the ocean cold tongue region and implicit heat storage in the subsurface ocean| induced by horizontal atmospheric heat fluxes. The reduced surface temperature warming outside of the cold tongue region is due to reduction in the downward longwave radiative flux at the surface| caused in turn by reduced atmospheric temperature and moisture. The global mean surface temperature responds to the heat storage in the ocean as if the global mean radiative forcing due to the doubled CO2 (approximately 4 W m(-2)) was reduced by the value of che global mean heat flux into the ocean. This mechanism also provides a possible explanation for the observed high correlation on interannual timescales between the global mean tropospheric temperature and sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific. The results emphasize the importance of correctly modeling the dynamical processes in the ocean and atmosphere that help determine the sea surface temperature in the equatorial eastern Pacific| in addition to the thermodynamical processes| in projecting global warming. 2413,1997,4,4,A watershed approach to ecosystem monitoring in Denali National Park and Preserve| Alaska,The National Park Service and the National Biological Service initiated research in Denali National Park and Preserve| a 2.4 million-hectare park in southcentral Alaska| to develop ecological monitoring protocols for national parks in the Arctic/Subarctic biogeographic area. We are focusing pilot studies on design questions| on scaling issues and regionalization| ecosystem structure and function| indicator selection and evaluation| and monitoring technologies. Rock Creek| a headwater stream near Denali headquarters| is the ecological scale for initial testing of a watershed ecosystem approach. Our conceptual model embraces principles of the hydrological cycle| hypotheses of global climate change| and biological interactions of organisms occupying intermediate| but poorly studied| positions in Alaskan food webs. The field approach includes hydrological and depositional considerations and a suite of integrated measures linking key aquatic and terrestrial biota| environmental variables| or defined ecological processes| in order to establish ecological conditions and detect| track| and understand mechanisms of environmental change. Our sampling activities include corresponding measures of physical| chemical| and biological attributes in four Rock Creek habitats believed characteristic of the greater system diversity of Denali. This paper gives examples of data sets| program integration and scaling| and research needs. 4817,1997,4,5,A winning coalition of advocacy: climate research| bureaucracy and 'alternative' fuels - Who is driving climate change policy?,Anti-coal and some investment policies are widely justified with reference to global warming| Political analysis suggests that these policies are supported by the reinforcing interests of three powerful lobbies: scientific institutions engaged in atmospheric research and earth observation| energy corporations harmed by low fossil fuel prices or supplying 'clean' technologies| and numerous interlocking bureaucracies| Together they have succeeded in maintaining momentum in current climate negotiations| The scientific consensus which underpins the climate treaty is examined critically| It is argued that support for emission abatement policies is better explained with reference to diplomatic interest in the globalisation of energy related investments and trade than understood causality between average global surface warming and fossil fuel combustion. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4885,1997,3,2,Absorption chillers: Technology for the future,In an era of heightened awareness of energy efficiency and the associated environmental impacts| many industries worldwide are exploring "environmentally friendly" technologies that provide equivalent or improved performance while reducing or eliminating harmful side-effects. The refrigeration and air-conditioning industry| due to its reliance on CFCs and HCFCs| has invested in research in alternatives to the industry standard vapor compression machines. One alternative technology with great promise is chemical absorption. Absorption chiller; offer comparable refrigeration output with reduced SO2 CO2| and NOX emissions. Absorption chillers do not use CFCs or HCFCs| refrigerants that contribute to ozone depletion and global warming. Additionally| gas-fired absorption chillers can save significant amounts in energy costs when used in combination with a vapor compression chiller in a hybrid system. The hybrid system can take advantage of the comparatively low price of natural gas (per unit ton) and rely on the high performance of vapor compression when electricity prices are lower. The purpose of this article is to provide an introduction for those new to absorption technology as well as a discussion of selected high efficiency cycles| a discussion on the technology of coupling absorption with vapor compression systems to form a hybrid system| and the environmental impacts of absorption. 4700,1997,3,4,Absorption dynamics of CO2 bubbles in a pressurized liquid flowing downward and its simulation in seawater,The absorption process of carbon dioxide from a single bubble to the surrounding liquid at elevated pressure is studied both experimentally and theoretically. Experiments are conducted in a laboratory-scale column through which the liquid flows downward to hold each injected bubble nearly stationary. The system is pressurized up to 0.6 MPa and sodium chloride is added to water. A simple theoretical model is used to simulate the basic features of the absorption dynamics for bubbles ascending in shallow ocean. The bubble size is found to initially decrease almost linearly with time. The addition of NaCl significantly reduces the absorption rate of CO2. An analysis of shape or surface oscillations of the bubble reveals that this effect arises from the suppression of wavy fluctuations along the gas-liquid interface. The model predicts that the rate of bubble size reduction is almost independent of time and pressure for bubbles larger than 1 mm| reproducing the experimental results reasonably well. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4798,1997,4,4,Acoustic effects of the ATOC signal (15 Hz| 195 dB) on dolphins and whales,The Acoustic Thermometry of Ocean Climate (ATOC) program of Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the Applied Physics Laboratory| University of Washington| will broadcast a low-frequency 75-Hz phase modulated acoustic signal over ocean basins in order to study ocean temperatures on a global scale and examine the effects of global warming. One of the major concerns is the possible effect of the ATOC signal on marine life| especially on dolphins and whales. Zn order to address this issue| the hearing sensitivity of a false killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens) and a Risso's dolphin (Grampus griseus) to the ATOC sound was measured behaviorally. A staircase procedure with the signal levels being changed in l-dB steps was used to measure the animals' threshold to the actual ATOC coded signal. The results indicate that small odontocetes such as the Pseudorca and Grampus swimming directly above the ATOC source will not hear the signal unless they dive to a depth of approximately 400 m. A sound propagation analysis suggests that the sound-pressure level at ranges greater than 0.5 km will be less than 130 dB for depths down to about 500 m. Several species of baleen whales produce sounds much greater than 170-180 dB. With the ATOC source on the axis of the deep sound channel (greater than 800 m)| the ATOC signal will probably have minimal physical and physiological effects on cetaceans. (C) 1997 Acoustical Society of America. 4856,1997,3,4,Advances in cyclomer technology for thermoplastic composites manufacture,The field of composites is experiencing a slight decrease in growth because of the end of the cold war| the associated decrease in defense research and development spending| and the sensitivity to impact fracture damage of commercial thermoset composites. Adaptation of the prior composites technology to a new generation of vehicles and commercial high-speed civil transports is growing steadily because of industry's need for low-cost| lightweight materials that allow improved fuel economy that in turn| reduces CO2 vehicle emissions and environmental (global warming) hazards. The use of the so-called 'cyclomer technology' for thermoplastic composites manufacture offers flexibility and many exciting opportunities that are briefly discussed in this review article. Because of the combination of the relative toughness of the thermoplastic matrices| the load-bearing ability of the continuous fibers and low processing costs| this new class of thermoplastic composites is expected to find increasing use in vehicular applications. 4860,1997,4,4,Agricultural C cycle and greenhouse gas emission in China,This paper assesses the production| consumption and store of organic carbon in the agricultural system| including all products from agriculture| of China. An estimation showed that about 90% of carbon uptake by agricultural systems would be emitted or returned to the atmosphere by several types from 1990 to 2000| others remain in durable agricultural products and soil. Even though the fixation rate is getting lower| generally speaking Chinese agriculture is a ''sink'' but not a ''source'' in respect to the atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations in both the current period and that after few decades. China's Soil stores 12% of the whole soil carbon in the World. Considering the different global warming potentials (GWP)| an approach to the country budgets of CO2 and CH4 has been presented based on the measurements in rice paddies and in the Tibet and Inner Mongolia grasslands. 4883,1997,2,4,An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large US cities and the possible impacts of a climate change,A new air mass-based synoptic procedure is used to evaluate climate/mortality relationships as they presently exist and to estimate how a predicted global warming might alter these values. Forty-four large U.S. cities with metropolitan areas exceeding 1 million in population are analyzed. Sharp increases in mortality are noted in summer for most cities in the East and Midwest when two particular air masses are present ii very warm air mass of maritime origin is most important in the eastern United States| which when present can increase daily mortality by as many as 30 deaths in large cities. A hot| dry ait mass is important in many cities| and| although rare in the East| can increase daily mortality by up to 50 deaths. Cities in the South and Southwest show lesser weather/mortality relationships in summer. During winter| air mass-induced increases in mortality are considerably less than in summer. Although daily winter morality is usually higher than summer| the causes of death that are responsible for most winter mortality do not vary much with temperature. Using models that estimate climate change for the years 2020 and 2050| it is estimated that summer mortality will increase dramatically and winter mortality will decrease slightly| even if people acclimatize to the increased warmth. Thus| a sizable net increase in weather-related mortality is estimated if the climate warms as the models predict. 4868,1997,3,2,Anaerobic decomposition of organic carbon in paddy soil in relation to methane emission to the atmosphere,Paddy fields are regarded as one of the most important sources of methane emission which is enhancing global warming. To estimate decomposition processes of organic carbon in paddy soil quantitatively| firstly| kinetics of anaerobic decomposition of soil organic carbon (C) were investigated in laboratory experiments with or without organic amendments at 5| 20| 30 and 40 degrees C for 84 days of incubation. Produced CH4| CO2 and accumulated fatty acids were measured periodically| and first-order kinetics models were applied to the amount of decomposed C. Two components' model fitted decomposition pattern for unamended soil| but not for glucose or alanine-amended soils. To compare the parameters included in the model with those of adjacent upland soil| paddy soil contained smaller but faster components of decomposable organic matter. Secondly| methane emission from paddy soil was examined in paddy soil microcosms to find the possible mitigation options for reduction of the emission. Ammonium sulfate and potassium sulfate (S) were applied to compare with ammonium chloride and potassium chloride(C). Additionally ferrous oxide (F) was also applied to half sets of each treatment to make totally four treatments. Methane emission rate was significantly reduced by addition of S| much more effective than addition of F. Gas formation in the soil corresponded with the amendments| and the ratio of produced CH4 to CO2 decreased by addition of S at peak time of methane emission. (C) 1997 IAWQ. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 4825,1997,2,4,Analysis of merged SMMR-SSMI time series of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice parameters 1978-1995,The most consistent means of investigating the global sea ice cover is by satellite passive microwave sensors| as these are independent of illumination and cloud cover. The Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel. Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) provide information on the global sea ice cover from 1978 to present. The two instruments flew simultaneously during a 6-week overlap period in July and August 1987| thus enabling intercomparison of the two sensors. Brightness temperatures are corrected for instrument drift and calibration differences in order to produce continuous time series of monthly averaged Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent and sea ice area through the use of the NOr-wegian Remote Sensing EXperiment (NORSEX) algorithm| which relates brightness temperatures to ice concentration. Statistical analysis on the time series estimates the decreases in Arctic ice extent and ice area to be 4.5% and 5.7%| respectively| during the 16.8-year observation period. The overall trends established here serve to better define and strengthen earlier assertions of a reduced ice cover| based on analysis of SMMR and SSMI data taken separately. These results are consistent with GCM simulations that suggest retreat of the sea ice cover under global warming scenarios. 4834,1997,4,3,Arrhenius' 1896 model of the greenhouse effect in context,Arrhenius' 1896 model of the influence of carbonic acid (CO2) in the air on the temperature on the ground arose from debates concerning the causes of the Ice Ages in the Stockholm Physics Society. The calculation of the absorption-coefficients of H2O and CO2| which were the key to the construction of the model| was made possible through Arrhenius's use of Samuel P. Langley's measurements of heat emission in the lunar spectrum. The model enabled Arrhenius to show variations in mean temperature in sectors from 70 degrees N to 60 degrees S during four different seasons given five different levels of CO2. The immediate reactions to the model concerned the question which Arrhenius had attempted to answer| i.e.| the causes of the Ice Ages. Since the 1970s Arrhenius's work has received much wider attention due to the concern with global warming resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. 4701,1997,2,4,Aspects of carbon and nitrogen cycling in soils of the Bornhoved lake district .2. Modelling the influence of temperature increase on soil respiration and organic carbon content in arable soils under different managements,Based on field measurements in two agricultural ecosystems| soil respiration and long-term response of soil organic carbon content (SOC) was modelled. The model predicts the influence of temperature increase as well as the effects of land-use over a period of thirty years in a northern German glacial moraine landscape. One of the fields carried a maize monoculture treated with cattle slurry in addition to mineral fertilizer (''maize monoculture'')| the other was managed by crop rotation and received organic manure (''crop rotation''). The soils of both fields were classified as cambic Arenosols. The soil respiration was measured in the fields by means of the open dynamic inverted-box method and an infrared gas analyser. The mean annual soil respiration rates were 268 (maize monoculture) and 287 mg CO2 m(-2) h(-1) (crop rotation). Factors controlling soil respiration were soil temperature| soil moisture| root respiration and carbon input into the soil. Q(10)-values of soil respiration were generally higher in winter than in summer. This trend is interpreted as an adaptive response of the soil microbial communities. In the model a novel mathematical approach with variable Q(10)-values as a result of temperature and moisture adjustment is proposed. With the calibrated model soil respiration and SOC were calculated for both fields and simulations over a period of thirty years were established. Simulations were based on (1) local climatic data| 1961 until 1990| and (2) a regional climate scenario for northern Germany with an average temperature increase of 2.1 K. Over the thirty years period with present climate conditions| the SOC pool under ''crop rotation'' was nearly stable due to the higher carbon inputs| whereas about 16 t C ha(-1) were lost under ''maize monoculture''. Under global warming the mean annual soil respiration for both fields increased and SOC decreased by ca. 10 t C ha(-1) under ''crop rotation'' and by more than 20 t C ha(-1) under ''maize monoculture''. It was shown that overestimation of carbon losses in long-term prognoses can be avoided by including a Q(10)-adjustment in soil respiration models. 2457,1997,3,4,Assessing effects of mitigation strategies for global climate change with an intertemporal model of the US forest and agriculture sectors,A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management| land use| and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a "least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; land use changes account for the largest part of adjustments to meet policy targets; and forest management changes involve higher intensity and less forest type conversion. 2430,1997,4,3,Assessing the DICE model: Uncertainty associated with the emission and retention of greenhouse gases,Analysis of the DICE model indicates that it contains unsupported assumptions| simple extrapolations| and misspecifications that cause it to understate the rate at which economic activity emits greenhouse gases and the rate at which the atmosphere retains greenhouse gases| The model assumes a world population that is 2 billion people lower than the 'base case' projected by demographers. The model extrapolates a decline in the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted per unit of economic activity that is possible only if there is a structural break in the economic and engineering factors that have determined this ratio over the last century| The model uses a single equation to simulate the rate at which greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere| The forecast for the airborne fraction generated by this equation contradicts forecasts generated by models that represent the physical and chemical processes which determine the movement of carbon from the atmosphere to the ocean. When these unsupported assumptions| simple extrapolations| and misspecifications are remedied with simple fixes| the economic impact of global climate change increases several fold. Similarly| these remedies increase the impact of uncertainty on estimates for the economic impact of global climate change. Together| these results indicate that considerable scientific and economic research is needed before the threat of climate change can be dismissed with any degree of certainty. 2379,1997,2,4,Assessment of current and future regional climate scenarios for Mexico,Current climate and climate change scenarios are the basis for climate change vulnerability and adaptation studies. Comparison between the current situation and the one that would prevail under climate change conditions allows for the identification of vulnerable regions and the quantification of vulnerability. This may be done by evaluating the land area adversely affected by climate change (e.g. with reduction in agricultural yields or decrease in the level of water reservoirs). Specific regionalization criteria and methods based on physical considerations should be applied in the development of regional climate scenarios. This is the principle followed in studies using analogue scenarios. A methodology based on the direct interpolation of general circulation model (GCM) outputs to the study region under 1xCO(2) and 2xCO(2) conditions may be used as a first approach for the development of climate change scenarios. That methodology was applied in this study in order to be consistent with the assessments performed by more than 50 countries involved in the U.S. Country Studies Program and to allow for the comparison and integration of the results from several countries. However| an alternative methodology based on multiple regression was also applied by the Scenario task group of the Mexico Country Study. This methodology is considered to be more appropriate for regionalization purposes. 2448,1997,2,1,Assessments of the global anthropogenic greenhouse and sulfate signal using different types of simplified climate models,The problem of global climate change forced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and sulfur components (SU) has to be addressed by different methods| including the consideration of concurrent forcing mechanisms isms and the analysis of observations. This is due to the shortcoming and uncertainties of all methods| even in case of the most sophisticated ones. III respect to the global mean surface air temperature| we compare the results from multiple observational statistical models such as multiple regression (MRM) and neural networks (NNM) with those of energy balance (EBM) and general circulation models (GCM) where| in the latter case| we refer to the recent IPCC Report. Our statistical assessments| based on the 1866-1994 period| lead to a GHG signal of 0.8-1.3 K and a combined GHG-SU signal of 0.5-0.8 K detectable in observations. This is close to GCM simulations and clearly larger than the volcanic| solar and ENSO (El Nino/southern oscillation) signals also considered. 4739,1997,3,2,Atmospheric issues in Canada,Six atmospheric 'issues' are currently being assessed by scientists| modellers and policy analysts in Canada: climate change; stratospheric ozone depletion (including W-B radiation increases); acidic deposition; smog (e.g. ground-level ozone episodes); suspended particulate matter; and hazardous air pollutants. This paper provides a brief historical review of how these particular issues came to the forefront internationally and in Canada. Then the characteristics of the issues are described| revealing the wide range of space and time scales involved| as well as the several different ecological systems and socioeconomic sectors affected. Historically each air issue has been treated as a separate problem - from root causes| through the atmospheric processes involved| through the impacts on the biosphere and society| and finally to the design of policies to slow down or eliminate unwanted impacts. In recent years| however| recognition has been growing that the six air issues are interrelated through complex feedbacks| lags and synergisms. For example| replacing CFCs may slow down stratospheric ozone depletion| but the replacement gases may contribute to climate warming. The lesson to be learned by both scientists and policy analysts is therefore that strategies for dealing with a particular issue may not be optimal for the whole. Two examples are given to illustrate the paint. (1) With respect to policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions| the warming potentials of all such gases should be assessed| and the effects of proposed strategies on the other five air issues should also be included. (2) With respect to regional land-use planning| a long-term perspective (decades) should be taken| and the effects of global and regional atmospheric change on the region should be included in the assessment. Because the future is difficult and often impossible to predict| an adaptive strategy is recommended in which options are kept open| and the assessment document is revisited periodically (at 2-5-year intervals). (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 4893,1997,3,3,Atmospheric methane: Sources| sinks| and strategies for reducing agricultural emissions,Methane (CH4) is one of the most abundant organic gases in the atmosphere. Recently the importance of CH4 as a greenhouse gas has been recognized and studies have been carried out to asses its contribution to global warming. In this paper we show that atmospheric CH4 is produced by a wide variety of natural and anthropogenic processes. Then| we discuss mainly production| consumption and emission of CH4 in paddy fields. Finally| we provide an estimate of the mitigation potential in agricultural systems including rice production| ruminant animals and animal waste. (C) 1997 IAWQ. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 4707,1997,3,2,Austrian agriculture's share in the emission of trace gases affecting the climate,Agriculture's share including all direct and indirect processes such as clearing of forests in the tropics in anthropogenic global warming potential is about more than 30%. When the inappropriate cultivation methods and land use changes in the tropic and subtropic areas| which cause especially high CO2-emissions| are excluded agriculture's share is about 13%| now methane emissions (from livestock husbandry and rice paddies) and nitrous oxide emissions (due to nitrogen inputs to the soils) are predominating. In Austria agriculture's share in national warming potential is about 10%. If only emissions in direct connection with agricultural land use (incl. fuel consumption| use of mineral and organic N-fertilizers and use of plant protective agents| but excl. emissions from livestock husbandry and from use of electricity power| gas and fuel oil for heating) are included agriculture's share is about 5%. In the past specialization in agricultural production resulting in unbalanced crop rotations and intensification of soil cultivation might have contributed to degradation of organic carbon on arable land. However| topsoils are still an important carbon reservoir| which must be preserved by competent and sustainable soil cultivation (well balanced crop rotation|planting of cover crops| incorporation of crop residues in the soil). Agriculture may contribute a relevant amount to reduce emissions of climate affecting trace gases when the potential for biomass production is used. Extensification strategies in all fields of plant production should be further optimised for preserving natural resources and using energy inputs efficiently. 4857,1997,4,4,Bayesian methods for analysing climate change and water resource uncertainties,The purpose of this paper is to outline the advantages of the Bayesian approach for analysing uncertainties involving climate change| emphasizing the study of the risks such changes pose to water resources systems. Bayesian analysis has the advantage of basing inference and decisions on a coherent and normatively appealing theoretical framework. Furthermore| it can incorporate diverse sources of information| including subjective opinions| historical observations and model outputs. The paper summarizes the basic assumptions and procedures of Bayesian analysis. Summaries of applications to detection of climate change| estimation of climate model parameters| and wetlands management under climatic uncertainty illustrate the potential of the Bayesian methodology. Criticisms of the approach are summarized. It is concluded that in comparison with alternative paradigms for analysing uncertainty| such as fuzzy sets and Dempster-Shafer reasoning| Bayesian analysis is practical| theoretically sound| and relatively easy to understand. (C) 1997 Academic Press Limited 4809,1997,2,4,Between-year variation in climate-related growth of circumarctic populations of the moss Hylocomium splendens,1. The correlation between climatic variables and past (up to 20 years) growth was studied in seven circumarctic populations of the moss Hylocomium splendens| using retrospective analyses of growth. We hypothesized that relationships between growth and climate would be simpler in an ectohydric moss than in higher plants and that the moss could provide high signal-to-noise ratios of responses to climatic variation. 2. Growth parameters of the moss were strongly correlated with early summer temperatures and with the length of the growing season. Annual segment mass| growth rates and degeneration rates were highest at the mildest subarctic sites and lowest at the high arctic site. In contrast| 'longevity' (age of the oldest segment) increased at the climatically harsher sites. 3. Between-year growth variations at two contrasting sites were significantly correlated with June and July temperatures and| to a lesser extent| with early-season precipitation at one of the sites. 4. The moss currently tolerates a wide range of climates and large interannual variations in temperature and is likely to be at risk from climatic change only at the southern edge of its range. 5. The climate-change component most likely to affect the growth of H. splendens in the Arctic and Subarctic will be a lengthening of the growing season and in increase in early summer temperatures provided that moisture is not limiting. 6. Hylocomium splendens is a suitable species for monitoring climatic change at a circumarctic scale. 2452,1997,3,2,Biological fossil CO2 mitigation,Over ten times more CO2 is fixed by plants into biomass| and annually released by decomposers and food chains| than is emitted to the atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels. Human activity is already directly and indirectly affecting almost half of the terrestrial biological C cycle. Management of even a small fraction of the biological C cycle would make a major contribution to mitigation of this greenhouse gas. Electric power generation is responsible for roughly one third of fossil CO2 emissions. Direct CO2 mitigation processes are those that reduce fossil CO2 emissions from specific power plants. Direct biological CO2 mitigation processes include the cultivation of microalgae on flue-gas or captured CO2| and the cofiring of wood with fossil fuels. Indirect biological processes| such as growing trees for C storage or for fueling dedicated biomass power plants| recapture CO2 that already has entered the atmosphere. Indirect and direct CO2 mitigation processes have the same overall effect in reducing global warming potential. Reducing global CO2 emissions from forest destruction and unsustainable agricultural and land use practices is one of the most cost-effective| and environmentally beneficial actions that can be taken now to arrest global climate change. Another near-term option is to enhance the substitution of fossil fuels with biofuels. Biofuels are a major source of fuel for the poorer half of mankind. Globally| biofuels could replace a substantial fraction of current fossil fuel usage. Cofiring biomass wastes and residues with coal is one of the lowest-cost| nearest-term options for reducing fossil CO2 emissions at existing power plants. Long-term demonstrations of biomass cofiring are required at full-scale coal-fired power plants to document efficiencies| ash characteristics| biomass preparation and feeding| and other technical issues. Biomass fuel resources for cofiring can be expanded in the near-term through greater recovery of wastes and residues in forestry and agriculture| and in the mid-term through systems that produce biomass specifically for use as fuels (energy crops). (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4839,1997,2,4,Bleaching of the coral Oculina patagonica by Vibrio AK-1,Bleaching in stony corals is the result of a disruption of the symbiosis between the coral hosts and photosynthetic microalgal endosymbionts (zooxanthellae). Coral bleaching may be induced by a variety of environmental stimuli| including increased seawater temperature. Large-scale bleaching episodes have been suggested to be linked to global warming. We have discovered that coral bleaching| in this case| bleaching of the Mediterranean coral Oculina patagonica| is caused by a bacterid infection and that water temperature is a contributing factor. The causative agent| Vibrio AK-1| was present in 28 bleached O. patagonica examined| but absent from 24 healthy (unbleached) corals. The Vibrio sp. was isolated in pure culture| characterized microbiologically| and shown to cause bleaching when inoculated onto unbleached corals. An increase in seawater temperature may influence the outcome of bacterial infection by lowering the resistance of the coral to infection and/or increasing the virulence of the bacterium. When inoculated with 10(6) Vibrio AK-1 ml(-1) at 26 degrees C| bleaching began at around 10 d and affected more than 80% of the corals after 44 d. Bleaching did not occur under the same conditions in the presence of antibiotics or if the temperature was lowered to 16 degrees C. 4811,1997,4,4,Borehole temperatures and a baseline for 20th-century global warming estimates,Lack of a 19th-century baseline temperature against which 20th-century warming can be referenced constitutes a deficiency in understanding recent climate change. Combination of borehole temperature profiles| which contain a memory of surface temperature changes in previous centuries| with the meteorological archive of surface air temperatures can provide a 19th-century baseline temperature tied to the current observational record. A test case in Utah| where boreholes are interspersed with meteorological stations belonging to the Historical Climatological Network| yields a noise reduction in estimates of 20th-century warming and a baseline temperature that is 0.6 degrees +/- 0.1 degrees C below the 1951 to 1970 mean temperature for the region. 4742,1997,4,6,Can increasing carbon dioxide cause climate change?,The realistic physical functioning of the greenhouse effect is reviewed| and the role of dynamic transport and water vapor is identified| Model errors and uncertainties are quantitatively compared with the forcing due to doubling CO2| and they are shown to be too large for reliable model evaluations of climate sensitivities| The possibility of directly measuring climate sensitivity is reviewed. A direct approach using satellite data to relate changes in globally averaged radiative flux changes at the top of the atmosphere to naturally occurring changes in global mean temperature is described| Indirect approaches to evaluating climate sensitivity involving the response to volcanic eruptions and Eocene climate change are also described. Finally| it is explained how| in principle| a climate that is insensitive to gross radiative forcing as produced by doubling CO2 might still be able to undergo major changes of the sort associated with ice ages and equable climates. 4820,1997,2,4,Carbon balance of tundra landscape in Central Siberia: Observations| simulation and GIS-modelling,Comprehensive statistical analysis of field measurements of CO2 fluxes in ecosystems of typical subarctic tundra in Taymir Peninsula (Central Siberia| Russia) was performed. Simulation models allowing to compute integrate seasonal values of basic components of carbon balance in the most characteristic plant communities of typical tundra were built. To access the landscape pattern of tundra carbon balance we applied GIS-approach based on the original computer map of ecosystem borders. In 1994 the seasonal (from the beginning of snow melting till the end of total soil freezing) carbon balance of typical tundra landscape was estimated as -4 g C . m-(2) . year(-1) (carbon sink)| the ecosystem total respiration as +145 g C . m(-2) . year(-1)| and gross primary production as -149 g C . m(-2) year(-1). Such a poorly expressed carbon sink conceptually should be considered as landscape equilibrium. Nevertheless the subsequent computer simulation of climate changes confirmed the hypothesis of positive feedback between global warming and change of carbon balance pattern in tundra ecosystems from sink to source. From the other side we found that regional peculiarities of ecological and climatic conditions can strongly effect the climate global change appearance. 2458,1997,3,4,Carbon dioxide-enriched agroecosystems: Influence of tillage on short-term soil carbon dioxide efflux,Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration can increase biomass production that may influence carbon (C) dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems. Soil CO2 efflux as affected by crop residues from high CO2 environments managed under different tillage systems has not been explored. This study examined the effects of tillage systems in a legume \{soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.]\} and nonlegume \{grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor] (L.) Moench.\} CO2-enriched agroecosystem on the rates of short-term CO2 evolution from a Blanton loamy sand (loamy siliceous| thermic Grossarenic Paleudults). In the spring of 1993| CO2 efflux observations initiated within 5 s after a tillage event were compared to no-tillage conditions for 8 d in plots where both crop species had been grown in open top field chambers under two CO2 conditions (ambient and twice ambient) for two seasons (1992 and 1993). Added CO2 increased yields| residue| and root biomass; higher percent ground cover was also observed in CO2-enriched plots prior to the tillage treatment. Differences in C/N ratio of the residue may have influenced CO2 efflux rates; C/N ratio was highest for sorghum and was increased by elevated CO2. Efflux patterns were characterized by flushes of CO2 following initial tillage and rainfall events. Species x tillage and CO2 x species interactions were noted on several days and for total CO2 efflux values. Our results suggest that short-term CO2 fluxes may be greater for tilled soybean and for soybean grown under elevated CO2; however| short-term flux rates in the sorghum crop were affected by tillage| but not by CO2 level. These short-term results should be viewed with caution when predicting long-term C turnover in agroecosystems. 4796,1997,4,4,Carbon pool dynamics in the Lower Fraser Basin from 1827 to 1990,To understand the total impact of humans on the carbon cycle| the modeling and quantifying of the transfer of carbon from terrestrial pools to the atmosphere is becoming more critical. Using previously published data| this research sought to assess the change in carbon pools caused by humans in the Lower Fraser Basin (LFB) in British Columbia| Canada| since 1827 and define the long-term| regional contribution of carbon to the atmosphere. The results indicate that. there has been a transfer of 270 Mt of carbon from biomass pools in the LFB to other pools| primarily the atmosphere. The major losses of biomass carbon have been from logged forests (42%)| wetlands (14%)| and soils (43%). Approximately 48% of the forest biomass| almost 20% of the carbon of the LFB| lies within old-growth forest| which covers only 19% of the study area. landfills are now becoming a major sink of carbon| containing 5% of the biomass carbon in the LFB| while biomass carbon in buildings| urban vegetation| mammals| and agriculture is negligible. Approximately 26% of logged forest biomass would still be in a terrestrial biomass pool| leaving 238 Mt of carbon that has been released to the atmosphere. On an area basis| this is 29 times the average global emissions of carbon| providing an indication of the past contributions of developed countries such as Canada to global warming and possible contributions from further clearing of rainforest in both tropical and temperate regions. 4859,1997,2,4,Carbon storage along a latitudinal transect in Alaska,Global warming is anticipated to have a significant impact on high-latitude ecosystems which store large amounts of C in their soils and have a predominance of permafrost. The purpose of this study was to estimate the total C storage of different ecosystems along a north-south transect in Alaska. Soil pedons from three Alaska climate zones were studied. These zones were the arctic slope with continuous permafrost and vegetation predominantly tussock tundra and coastal marsh| Interior Alaska with discontinuous permafrost and vegetation predominantly spruce forest on the upland and tundra or bog in the lowland| and Southern Alaska free of permafrost with the vegetation predominantly mixed hardwood and conifers with moss bogs. Soil samples were taken from the representative ecosystems of these zones for carbon storage analysis. In the Arctic and Interior Alaska zones| many soils are cryoturbated and as a result the horizons are warped and often broken. These conditions made it impractical to use the common method for estimating C storage that is used for soils with roughly parallel horizons. For this study the linear proportion of each horizon in the cryoturbated pedon was digitized by using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and the irregular horizons were collapsed to form a simulated profile with parallel horizons. The carbon content of each pedon was then calculated based on the linear proportions. These carbon stores based on the whole soil (1 m deep) approach were compared to other available estimates from the literature. Calculations for pedons from selected ecosystems in Alaska ranged from 169 MgC/ha to 1292 MgC/ha. The organic carbon storage of the arctic coastal marsh pedon amounted to 692 MgC/ha| and that of the arctic tundra pedon amounted to 314 and 599 MgC/ha. The carbon storage of interior forest pedons was 169 and 787 MgC/ha| and the associated organic soil stored nearly 1300 MgC/ha. The carbon storage in the mixed forest and coastal forest pedons was 240 and 437 MgC/ha| respectively. The bog associated with the mixed and coastal forest stored 1260 MgC/ha. Soils with the thickest organic layers were bogs associated with the tundra and boreal forest. These soils had the largest carbon storage. Carbon stores estimated from the whole pedon approach are 30 to 100% higher than those from the literature from the same zones. These data suggest that the global carbon storage estimates based in part on literature values from the N. latitudes| may be underestimated. 4875,1997,3,4,Cascading of pine wood,Resource-cascading| the sequential exploitation of the full potential of a resource during its use| is one of the ways to improve efficiency of raw materials use. In this article it is shown that cascading of the renewable resource pinewood can lead to large savings in primary resource use. For pine wood a cascade of five or six steps can be set up which extends the time that the resource is in use from about 75 to more than 350 years. Cascading also means that| when using wood| the moment that carbon dioxide is emitted| is postponed. This is interesting in relation to global warming. In the Netherlands| a country where labour is relatively expensive| parts of this cascade are realised in practice. Until now| however only a small percentage of the total amount of wood is cascaded. To favour cascading of wood several options may be considered| such as eco-taxation of resources| prohibition to dump waste-wood and a 'wood-bank' showing which kind of wood with certain properties is available at a certain moment. Copyright (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 4744,1997,3,4,Cascading of renewable resources hemp and reed,Resource-cascading| the sequential exploitation of the full potential of a resource during its use| is one of the ways to improve efficiency of raw materials use. To design a good cascade knowledge of the typical properties and structures of the plant is useful. In this article it is shown that cascading of the renewable resources hemp and reed can lead to large savings in primary resource use. Resource cascading can therefore make the option to replace non-renewable resources by renewables more realistic. In comparison with using biomass (e.g. reed| hemp| straw) for energy directly| cascading also means that| carbondioxide emission| is postponed. This is interesting in relation to global warming. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 2424,1997,2,4,Change in avian abundance across the geographic range in response to environmental change,The abundance changes of three North American passerine bird species after the harsh winters of the late 1970s were analyzed to determine relationships between proportional abundance change and prewinter abundance| position within the geographic range| and winter severity| Analyses were made between both the prewinter period and a period of declining abundance immediately after the winters and between this decline period and a later period of recovery in which abundance increased. The proportional declines in abundance showed no relationship to prewinter abundances. Proportional abundance change was greatest at sites closer to the range edge and| for two species| at sites with a more severe winter. Proportional abundance increases of these two species between the decline and recovery periods similarly were greatest at sites near the range edges and with previously more severe winters. Abundance increases were|oreater at sites with the lowest predecline abundance. Geographic range structures showed changes parallel to the abundance changes| including overall contraction and expansion. In addition| there was evidence of fine-scale range dynamics| including extinction and colonization events toward the range margins and a roughening of the range boundary with abundance decrease followed by a smoothing of the boundary with abundance increase| Periods of major environmental change| such as these severe winters| may provide insight into how populations of organisms will respond to global climate change. In particular| this study suggests that population declines will be accompanied by a contraction toward core areas of the range that formerly had the highest abundance| However| more investigation is clearly needed into the precise nature of broad-scale population dynamics following environmental perturbations that cause abundance change. 4706,1997,5,3,Changes in accumulation rate of organic carbon during the last 8|000 years in sediments of Nakaumi Lagoon| Japan,Changes in the organic carbon accumulation rate (C-org A.R.) and their relation to climate changes during the last 8|000 years were investigated in a 20 m sediment core from the Nakaumi Lagoon| southwest Japan. High-resolution C-14 dating was possible from fifteen shell samples. The warm climate interval 8|000-6|500 cal. yr B.P. was accompanied by increase in the C-org A.R. (21-32 g m(-2) yr(-1)) and the cool climate interval 3.000-2|000 cal. yr B.P. by a decrease (11 g m(-2) yr(-1)). The accumulation of both terrestrial and planktonic organic matter increased during the warm interval. The lagoon seems to act as a more effective small sink for atmospheric CO2 following the global warming climate. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 4781,1997,2,4,Changes in water relations for leaves exposed to a climate-warming manipulation in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado,Relative water content (RWC) and water potential were compared for leaves of several plant species exposed to a warming manipulation at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory| near Crested Butte| Colorado| USA| to test the hypothesis that species-specific changes in water relations parameters will occur in response to future increases in planetary air temperatures. Leaves of Artemisia tridentata| Erigeron speciosus| Festuca thurberi| Helianthella quinquinervis| Potentilla fruticosa| Potentilla gracilis and Rhodiola integrifolia were collected from plants growing in situ in control and infrared (IR)-heated (22 W m(-2)) plots in a meadow near the upper elevational distribution limit for A. tridentata. For six of the seven herbaceous species| RWC was not significantly different from that for A. tridentata (0.903+/-0.019 on control plots and 0.846+/-0.031 from heated plots). However| RWC was 0.644+/-0.04 and 0.596+/-0.029 for F. thurberi on control and heated plots| respectively. Water potential (Psi) varied from -1.04 MPa for A. tridentata (control plots) to -4.83 MPa for leaves of F. thurberi (heated plots); Psi for the other species ranged from -1.08 MPa (R. integrifolia on control plots) to -2.62 MPa (P. gracilis on heated plots). To characterize further the responses of water relations parameters to the IR heating treatment| pressure-volume isotherms were generated for A. tridentata and P. gracilis. Both species exhibited effects of the IR heating treatment on saturated osmotic potential and the relative symplastic water content. Based on changes in osmotic potential and relative water content| an increase in osmotically active solutes was exhibited for leaves collected from plants under heaters. Species-specific patterns of RWC and water potential (as well as effects on cellular water relations) may influence the ability of plant species to cope with changes in soil water content that are expected to occur with global warming for montane ecosystems in the western USA. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 4774,1997,3,4,Characteristics of a CO2-recovering combined cycle power generation system when its CO2 recovery rate is changed,This study investigated how the net power generation efficiency varied when its CO2 recovery rate was raised| by taking a combined cycle power generation system as an example. In the system| alkanolamine-based chemical solvent was assumed to be used to remove and recover CO2 from the stack gas| and the extracted steam from the steam turbine at a temperature of 454 K to regenerate CO2-absorbed solvent. The equation to estimate the net power generation efficiency eta(N) was derived when its CO2 recovery rate R-CO2 is changed| and a simulation model was developed to estimate various characteristics of the system. It has been estimated that eta(N) is 50.2% when R-CO2 is 0%| but the value of eta(N) degrades sharply according to the rise of the value of R-CO2| and eta(N) decreased to 37.7% when R-CO2 is raised to 90%; that is| the efficiency of the system becomes lower than 37.7%| that of a CO2-recovering steam turbine generation system using the same chemical CO2 absorption solvent. (C) 1997 by John Wiley gr Sons| Ltd. 4752,1997,4,3,Climate change and the insurance industry: the cost of increased risk and the impetus for action,A convincing economic argument for taking action to prevent or ameliorate climate change has not developed because of both uncertainty about the degree of change and its timing. Recent costly weather-related catastrophes with consequent negative impacts on the insurance industry has made the insurance industry a potential advocate for slowing what has been identified as a causal factor in climate change: emissions of greenhouse gases. However| rising costs of claims| without a longer-term trend of such catastrophic losses| will make it difficult to present a strong case for taking costly economic action. Using the Black Scholes Option Pricing Model| it is shown that increasing levels of climate variability as embedded in the anticipated variability of damage to insured assets will have an immediate economic cost that could serve to bolster the argument for more immediate action. That cost is shown to be economically justified higher insurance premiums. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 2408,1997,2,4,Climate change and water resources,Current perspectives on global climate change based on recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are presented. Impacts of a greenhouse warming that are likely to affect water planning and evaluation include changes in precipitation and runoff patterns| sea level rise| land use and population shifts following from these effects| and changes in water demands. Irrigation water demands are particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation| temperature| and carbon dioxide levels. Despite recent advances in climate change science| great uncertainty remains as to how and when climate will change and how these changes will affect the supply and demand for water at the river basin and watershed levels| which are of most interest to planners. To place the climate-induced uncertainties in perspective| the influence on the supply and demand for water of non-climate factors such as population| technology| economic conditions| social and political factors| and the values society places on alternative water uses are considered. 2425,1997,2,4,Climate change| agriculture and wetlands in Eastern Europe: Vulnerability| adaptation and policy,Naturally-occurring wetlands perform such functions as flood control| pollution filtration| nutrient recycling| sediment accretion| groundwater recharge and water supply| erosion control| and plant and wildlife preservation. A large concentration of wetlands is located in Eastern Europe. A significant amount of Eastern European wetlands has been converted to agricultural use in the past| and remaining wetlands are subject to agricultural drainage. Drained wetlands are used as prime agriculture lands for a variety of food crops. Other agricultural uses of wetlands range from growing Phragmites australis (common reed) for thatch and livestock feed| to collecting peat for heating and cooking fuel. Altered hydrologic regimes due to global climate change could further exacerbate encroachment of agricultural land use into wetlands. The vulnerability and adaptation studies of the U.S. Country Studies Program are used to analyze where climate change impacts to agriculture may likewise impact wetland;areas. Scenarios indicate higher temperatures and greater evapotranspiration altering the hydrologic regime such that freshwater wetlands are potentially vulnerable in Bulgaria| Czech Republic| and Russia| and that coastal wetlands are at risk in Estonia. Runoff is identified as a key hydrological parameter affecting wetland function. Since wetland losses may increase as a result of climate-change-induced impacts to agriculture| precautionary management options are reviewed| such as establishing buffer areas| promoting sustainable uses of wetlands| and restoration of farmed or mined wetland areas. These options may reduce the extent of negative agricultural impacts on wetlands due to global climate change. 4754,1997,2,3,Climate changes in the greater and southern Caribbean,A climate change resulting from recent increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is supposed to occur sometime in the middle of the next century. This climate change induced by GHGs would be caused by radiative forcing through the greenhouse effect and would lead to global warming and eventually to sea-level rise. This paper presents a climate change scenario for the greater Caribbean as simulated by the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model (GCM). The CCC GCM projects a GHG induced temperature increase of about 2 degrees C and more extreme rainfall conditions for the greater Caribbean. The climate records of temperature| rainfall and cloudiness for several stations on the island of Trinidad are then examined in an attempt to detect GHG climate change signals. The temperature change to date| close to 1 degrees C| and the fluctuations in rainfall patterns| over the last five decades| seem to be indicative of early greenhouse signals. (C) 1997 by the Royal Meteorological Society. 4763,1997,3,3,Climate convention implementation: An opportunity for the Pacific island nations to move toward sustainable energy systems,The impacts of global warming are among the more serious environmental threats far the Pacific Island countries. These nations justifiably argue that developed countries should give immediate priority to the implementation of climate change mitigation policies because of the severe nature of potential greenhouse impacts for the Pacific Islands. Another immediate priority acknowledged by these nations is the need for development of adaptation policies that plan for adjustment or adaptation| where possible| to the foreshadowed impacts of climate change. This article does not focus on adaptation or mitigation policy directly but on an allied opportunity that exists for the Pacific Islands via the auspices of the Climate Convention| because the existing very costly energy systems used in the Pacific island region are fossil-fuel dependent. It is argued here that efforts can be made towards the development of energy systems that are ecologically sustainable because Pacific Island nations are eligible to receive assistance to introduce renewable energy technology and pursue energy conservation via implementation mechanisms of the Climate Convention and| in particular through transfer of technology and via joint implementation. II is contended that assistance in the form of finance| technology| and human resource development from developed countries and international organizations would provide sustainable benefits in improving the local Pacific island environments. It is also emphasized that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is not the responsibility of the Pacific Islands as they contribute very little on a per capita global scale and a tiny proportion of total global greenhouse gas emissions. 4824,1997,4,2,Climate model studies of sulphate aerosols and clouds,It is generally believed that increases in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases as a result of man's activities are leading to global warming. It is also believed that the same activities lead to increasing concentrations of sulphate aerosol| which act to cool the climate system and ameliorate the warming. The sulphate cooling may be separated into the direct effect in cloud-free regions and the indirect effect in cloudy regions. This paper summarizes recent work at the Hadley Centre on the indirect effect. Results from two versions of the Hadley Centre Climate Model are shown| using various parameterizations linking the amount of sulphate aerosol and the number concentration of droplets in water clouds. These results illustrate the considerable uncertainties in estimating the indirect effect. It is shown that other naturally occurring components of the aerosol population| in particular sea salt| may be important in reducing the magnitude of the indirect effect. 4780,1997,4,3,Climate variability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land surface model: Implication for the detection of global warming - The Walter Orr Roberts lecture,This lecture evaluates the low-frequency variability of surface air temperature that was obtained from a 1000-yr integration of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land surface model. The model simulates reasonably well the variability of local and global mean surface air temperature (SAT) at decadal timescales. The physical mechanisms responsible for this variability are explored. Based upon an analysis of the time series of the simulated global mean SAT| it is indicated that the warming trend of similar to 0.5 degrees C century(-1) since the end of the last century was not generated internally through the interaction among the atmosphere| ocean| and land surface. Instead| it appears to have been induced by a sustained change in the thermal forcing such as that resulting from changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration| solar irradiance| and aerosol loading. 4713,1997,4,3,Climate-related global changes in the southern Caribbean: Trinidad and Tobago,A climate change deriving from the atmospheric build up of greenhouse gases (GHG) is supposed to become evident by the middle of the next century. This GHG-induced climate change would supposedly lead to a global warming of about 2 to 4 degrees C and a rise in mean sea level of about 60 cm towards the end of the next century. This study focuses on the field measurements and interpretations of a number of| supposedly| climate-driven regional changes| including shifts in climate and hydrology| coastal erosion and sedimentation| salinisation of coastal aquifers and estuaries| and also coral bleaching| in Trinidad and Tobago| in the southern Caribbean. The results show significant changes and shifts in temperature and rainfall| severe coastal erosion| approaching 2 to 4 m per year for certain beaches| appreciable salinisation of a number of coastal aquifers and an estuary along the Caroni swamp| in Trinidad| and what appears to be partial coral bleaching| at the Culloden Reef in Tobago. These field-observed regional changes may conceivably be interpreted as early signals of a GHG-induced climate change. However| in view of the uncertainty surrounding GHG-induced climate change and sea level rise and the limitations of our data| especially the length of record| caution must be exercised in the interpretation of these results. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 4865,1997,3,4,CO2 mitigation with microalgae systems,Microalgae present one of the few technologies for the capture and utilization of CO2 emitted by power plants| These microscopic plants would be grown in large open ponds| into which power plant flue gas or pure CO2 (captured from power plants) is sparged| and| after harvesting| the biomass would be converted to a fossil fuel replacement| preferably a high value liquid fuel such as biodiesel. The requirements for large areas of land| favorable climate| and ample water supplies will restrict the potential of this technology. Also| even with rather favorable technical assumptions| the currently projected costs of microalgae-fuels are high| similar to most power plant CO2 capture and disposal options. However| if the technology of microalgae could achieve very high productivities| equivalent to 10% solar energy conversion| and if projected low-cost cultivation| harvesting and processing techniques could be developed| microalgae technology could become a low-cost CO2 mitigation option| particularly if prices for fossil fuels increase in the future. In the nearer-term microalgae CO2 utilization can be integrated with wastewater treatment and reclamation| providing an early application of this technology. Long-term basic and applied R&D are required to develop this technology| as one of the many options that may be required in the future to help preserve our planetary atmosphere and biosphere. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4802,1997,2,4,Combined effects of night-time temperature and allelochemicals on performance of a generalist insect herbivore,To assess the pattern of temperature influencing the effect of allelochemicals on growth of insect herbivores and to examine the potential effect of warmer nights due to global warming| we examined the simultaneous effects of allelochemicals and warmer night-time temperatures on an insect herbivore (Spodoptera exigua; Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Dietary chlorogenic acid| rutin and tomatine levels reflected those occurring naturally in the leaves of tomato| a hostplant of this herbivore. We compared the effects of four thermal regimes having a daytime temperature of 26 degrees C| with the night-time temperature increased from 14 to 26 degrees C by increments of 4 degrees C. The effect of a particular allelochemical on developmental rate was similar among the four thermal regimes. Chlorogenic acid and tomatine each reduced final larval weight| but there was no effect of night-time temperature. In contrast| rutin had no effect on final weight| whereas final weight declined with increasing night-time temperature. Night-time temperature did not influence amount eaten. Larvae ate less when chlorogenic acid or tomatine was in the diet. For each allelochemical| there were no allelochemical by thermal regime interactions. In addition| we compared the effects of allelochemicals and the thermal regime of 26:14 degrees C and constant 20 degrees C| which was the average temperature of the 26:14 degrees C regime. Developmental rate was lower at the constant 20 degrees C regime| chlorogenic acid and tomatine each depressed developmental rate| and there were no allelochemical by thermal regime interactions. Thus| regardless of the specific allelochemical or amount| the pattern of response at the fluctuating regime was similar to that at the constant temperature. In contrast| comparison of the thermal regime of 26:22 degrees C and constant 24 degrees C| which was the average temperature of the 26:22 degrees C regime| showed several allelochemical by thermal regime interactions. At the 26:22 degrees C regime| developmental rate was disproportionatly higher at the maximal rutin concentration compared to that at constant 24 degrees C. At the constant 24 degrees C| final larval mass was disproportionately lower at the moderate tomatine concentration compared to that at the 26:22 degrees C regime. Because these results differ from that of other studies examining another species| it appears that the response to incremental changes in night-time temperature will reflect the allelochemicals and insect species tested. The contrast between the constant 24 degrees C and 26:22 degrees C regimes indicates that even small fluctuations (+/-2 degrees C) in temperature over 24 h can yield differences in the response to an allelochemical. 4861,1997,2,4,Combined effects of night-time temperature and allelochemicals on performance of a Solanaceae specialist herbivore,To assess the influence of temperature on the impact of allelochemicals on the growth of insect herbivores. we examined the interactions between allelochemicals and warmer night-time temperatures on an insect herbivore| Manduca sexta (L.) and tomato plants. We compared the effects of four thermal regimes with a standard day-time temperature of 26 degrees C and the night-time temperature varying from 14 to 26 degrees C by increments of 4 degrees C. Increasing concentrations of chlorogenic acid and tomatine reduced developmental rate linearly. At 26:22 degrees C| there was also a quadratic effect| such that intermediate concentrations had a disproportionately large negative effect. Furthermore| the negative effects of the allelochemicals were less at the 26:14 degrees C regime. These results differ from another study examining a different insect species| which suggests that the response to incremental changes in night-time temperature will vary with the allelochemicals and insect species tested. However. some consistent patterns for M. sexta have emerged. The negative effects on caterpillar development of increasing allelochemical concentration changed across the gradient in night-time temperatures. At one thermal regime (26:22 degrees C)| M. sexta growth was disproportionately reduced by intermediate concentrations of each of three allelochemicals tested. 2446,1997,2,2,Community composition in mountain ecosystems: climatic determinants of montane butterfly distribution,Montane butterfly densities and species assemblages vary widely over space and through time. This variation is partially driven by variation in weather and climate| at spatial scales ranging from local habitats to regional ecosystems| and over time spans of days to centuries. We present case studies that illustrate how climatic variation affects individuals| population densities and species' ranges| and species distribution patterns at the regional level. Present patterns at all scales are neither spatially nor temporally static| even in the absence of directional anthropogenic climate change. The observed patterns allow us to sketch the broad outline of expected changes in population densites| species distributions and butterfly community composition under anthropogenic climate change. We conclude that the fragmented habitats found in montainous areas will exacerbate the effects of climate change on population densities and species' survival| and that relatively sedentary species require closer attention from conservation biologists. 4870,1997,3,4,Comparison of energy sources in terms of their full energy chain emission factors of greenhouse gases,This paper deals with the methodologies and databases for comparative assessment of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the full energy chain (FENCH) of different energy sources| It largely refers to an international experts workshop on the topic held in October 1994 in Beijing| which was the first meeting in a series of IAEA expert meetings on comparison of FENCH-GHG emission from energy sources| The findings and recommendations of the workship cover topics such as time horizon| plant life time| materials flows and system output comparability. Copyright (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 2455,1997,3,3,Compensating for opportunity costs in forest-based global climate change mitigation,Compensation to developing countries for mitigating global climate change by conserving forest or improving forest management should include the opportunity cost of foregone national development and not just the cost of carbon stored.Estimation of the opportunity cost is discussed and alternative compensation schemes compared. 2434,1997,2,4,Compositional and functional shifts in microbial communities due to soil warming,Microbial decomposition processes are typically described using first-order kinetics| and the effect of elevated temperature is modeled as an increase in the rate constant. However| there is experimental data to suggest that temperature increases the pool size of substrate C available for microbial respiration with little effect on first-order rate constants. We reasoned that changes in soil temperature alter the composition of microbial communities| wherein dominant populations at higher temperatures have the ability to metabolize substrates that are not used by members of the microbial community at lower temperatures. To gain insight into changes in microbial community composition and function following soil warming| we used molecular techniques of phospholipid Patty acid (PLFA) and lipopolysaccharide fatty acid (LPS-OHFA) analysis and compared the kinetics of microbial respiration for soils incubated from 5 to 25 degrees C. Substrate pools for microbial respiration and the abundance of PLFA and LPS-OHFA biomarkers for Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria differed significantly among temperature treatments| providing evidence for a shift in the function and composition of microbial communities related to soil warming. We suggest that shifts in microbial community composition following either large seasonal variation in soil temperature or smaller annual increases associated with global climate change have the potential to alter patterns of soil organic matter decomposition by a mechanism that is not considered by current simulation models. 4716,1997,3,3,Computer modelling of the rural energy system and of CO2 emissions for Bangladesh,We present projections of rural energy supply and demand and assess the contributions to global warming. The output of a dynamic system model is used in the LEAP model and overall energy balances are then compiled using a bottom-up approach. Biomass fuels constitute the major energy sources for rural people. A major share of the fuel is consumed for cooking using traditional stoves which have an efficiency less than 10%. Most of the biomass comes from crop wastes. Conservative estimates show tremendous pressure on rural forests for fuelwood. As the result| there is overcutting of rural forests resulting in environmental degradation. Bangladesh is responsible for a small fraction of the total anthropogenic contribution of CO2 but could be seriously affected by climatic change. Energy planning for sustainable development with LEAP is made more effective by using a complementary dynamic system model. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 2456,1997,3,4,Conceptual issues related to carbon sequestration: Uncertainty and time,Global climate change is about uncertainty related to ecological and economic processes| and political responses. It is about fairness and income distribution among nations| both now and in the future. It is a dynamic problem that involves national carbon transition functions| damage functions and discount rates. These issues form the basis of the current paper| which examines them from a conceptual point of view. 4736,1997,3,2,Concrete and sustainable development,The first signs of global warming caused by the greenhouse effect are now apparent. In the near future| a new evaluation of building materials in light of their ability to fulfill the requirements of sustainable development will be required In this paper; the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of concrete in residential buildings will be examined| taking into consideration production and operational phases| as well as traffic-induced energy consumption and emissions in residential areas. The massiveness of concrete buildings causes significant energy and emission savings compared to buildings comprised of lighter materials. This improves the ecological balance of concrete and lifts it to the group of building materials which burden the environment least. 4799,1997,2,4,Decadal changes of inflow to the Sacramento San Joaquin delta| California,The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is both an important environmental resource and a critical link in the water supply system for California. Concern for the adequacy of Delta water supplies increases with growing population and environmental maintenance needs and with the hydroclimatic uncertainty of global warming. Reconstructed or unimpaired discharges for Delta tributary areas are analyzed for trend and for changes in the seasonal regime of Delta inflows. Nonparametric tests indicate the absence of trend for annual inflows| but the low inflow months of September and October display increasing trends that are statistically significant. Additional changes in the Delta inflow regime are evident when inflow volumes are expressed relative to annual inflow. Decreasing trends in the spring fraction of annual total inflows and in the monthly fractions for April and May are statistically significant. March displays a significant increasing trend in the monthly fraction of inflow. The emerging decadal changes in monthly inflows have practical ramifications for water managers in the Delta. 4804,1997,4,4,Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty,If global warming occurs| it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (1) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?| (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?| and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study| sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless| a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it. 2381,1997,4,4,Detection and parameterization of variations in solar mid- and near-ultraviolet radiation (200-400 nm),Nimbus 7 and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) spacecraft measurements of solar irradiance both exhibit variability at mid (200-300 nm) and near (309-400 nm) ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths that are attributable to the Sun's 27-day solar rotation| even though instrument sensitivity drifts obscure longer-term| 11-year cycle variations| Competing influences of dark sunspots and bright faculae are the dominant causes of this rotational modulation| Parameterizations of these influences using a newly developed UV sunspot darkening index and the Mg index facular proxy replicate the rotational modulation detected in both the broadband Nimbus 7 filter data (275-360 nm and 300-410 nm) and in SOLSTICE l-nm spectra from 200 to 400 nm. Assuming that these rotational modulation influences scale linearly over the solar cycle| long-term databases of sunspot and global facular proxies permit estimation of Ii-year cycle amplitudes of the mid-and near-UV solar spectrum| unmeasured at wavelengths longward of 300 nm because of insufficient long-term repeatability (relative accuracy) of state-of-the-art solar radiometers at these wavelengths. Reconstructions of UV irradiances throughout the Ii-year solar cycle indicate variabilities of 0.173 W/m(2) (1.1%) in the integrated radiation from 200 to 300 nm and 0.24 W/m(2) (0.25%) in radiation from 300 to 400 nm| These two UV bands thus contribute about 13% and 18%| respectively| to the 1.54 W/m(2) (0.1%) total (spectrally integrated) radiative output solar cycle. The parameterizations allow customization of UV irradiance time series for specific wavelength bands required as inputs to general circulation model simulations of solar cycle forcing of global climate change| and have practical implications regarding the long-term repeatability required for future solar monitoring. 4866,1997,3,4,Development of a photobioreactor incorporating Chlorella sp. for removal of CO2 in stack gas,We developed a new design photobioreactor incorporating Chlorella sp. for removal of CO2 in stack gas. Photosynthetic conversion of CO2 into Chlorella biomass was investigated in a photobioreactor| which we termed a cone-shaped helical tubular photobioreactor. The laboratory scale photobioreactor (0.48 m high X 0.57 m top diameter) was set up with a 0.255 m(2) installation area. The photostage was made from transparent polyvinyl chloride (PVC) tubing (1.6 cm internal diameter with 2 cm wall thickness and 27 m in length). The inner surface of the cone-shaped photostage (0.50 m(2)) was illuminated with a metal halide lamp| the energy input into the photostage[photosynthetically active radiation (PAR| 400-700 nm)] was 2127 KJ day(-1) (12 h day / 12 h night). The maximum daily photosynthetic efficiency was 5.67% (PAR) under an air-lift operation at a flow rate of 0.3 litre min(-1) 10% CO2 enriched air. Maximum increase of Chlorella biomass was 21.5 g dry biomass m(-2) (installation area) day(-1) or 0.68 g dry biomass litre medium(-1) day(-1). Also| a helical tubular photobioreactor for outdoor culture was constructed with a 1.1 m(2) installation area (1.2 m top diameter) and photosynthetic productivity was investigated in July| 1996. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4699,1997,3,2,Development of new estimation method for CO2 evolved from oil shale,It is widely proposed that the global warming is mainly caused by the increase in of carbon dioxide (CO2) content in the atmosphere| and that fossil fuels are the dominant sources of this CO2. Therefore| the quality of fossil fuels tends to be evaluated by amounts of CO2 emissions. For the evaluation of an oil shale from this point an on-line thermogravimetric-gas chromatographic system was used to measure CO2 evolution profiles on temperature with a small oil shale sample. This method makes possible to estimate the amounts of CO2 evolved from kerogen and carbonates in retorting and those from carbonates in combustion| respectively. These results will be basic data for a novel oil shale retorting process for the control of CO2 emissions. The profiles for Thai and Colorado oil shales have shown CO2 mainly evolved by the pyrolysis of kerogen below 550 degrees C| and that evolved by the decomposition of carbonates above that temperature. On the other hand| the profile for Condor oil shale showed that most carbonates decomposed below 550 degrees C| while only small amounts of carbonates decomposed above this temperature. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 4841,1997,4,4,Dimethylsulfoniopropionate in anoxic intertidal sediments: A precursor of methanogenesis via dimethyl sulfide| methanethiol| and methiolpropionate,The most important volatile sulfur compound in the marine environment is dimethyl sulfide (DMS)| which mainly originates from the algal osmolyte dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP). Conversion of DMSP in anoxic marine sediments involves a cleavage to acrylate and DMS| which can further be converted by methanogenic Archaea and possibly by sulfate-reducing bacteria| or a demethylation to 3-methiolpropionate (MMPA); MMPA can be demethylated to 3-mercaptopropionate or demethiolated to methanethiol and presumably acrylate. Little is known about the types of anaerobic microorganisms that are involved in the demethylation pathway. We found that the marine Desulfobacterium strain PM4 converts DMSP to MMPA and that three marine Methanosarcina strains demethylate MMPA to S-mercaptopropionate and methane. Methanogenic conversion of MMPA in anoxic sediment slurries was only found when antibiotics that inhibit Bacteria but not Archaea were added. Under non-inhibited conditions MMPA was rapidly converted to methanethiol and subsequently to methane. The numbers of MMPA-metabolizing methanogens were significantly lower than those of DMS-| trimethylamine-| or methanol-metabolizing methanogens. It is concluded that in anoxic intertidal sediments DMSP is not only a source of DMS with its well-known counteractive effect on global warming| but also of the potent greenhouse gas methane. 4805,1997,2,4,Distinguishing between the effects of changes in temperature and light climate using provenance trials with Pinus sylvestris in Sweden,Provenance trials have been used to project the response of forest trees to changes in temperature resulting from the expected global warming. In such experiments the differences in temperature are brought about through geographical transfers over altitude and latitude. Transfers over latitudinal distances are also accompanied by changes in light climate. To distinguish between the effects of temperature and light| studies were made in a Pious sylvestris. L. provenance series in Sweden: in the series both the sites and the provenances are distributed over large latitudinal and altitudinal ranges. The response to annual temperature sum and latitude were calculated using multiple regression analysis| Both projected dominant height at age 100 years (H100) and mean annual yield increment over the rotation responded linearly to increasing temperature sum. The response to temperature sum decreased with increasing southward transfer. Latitudinal transfers without changes in temperature sum did not affect the performance of the populations. The projected response of populations to gradual warming will be less than projected on the basis of the final or the average temperature sums over the rotation period. 4735,1997,2,4,Distribution of bryophytes on subantarctic Heard Island,Heard Island is a small| isolated subantarctic island dominated by art ice covered volcano. Glaciers descend the volcano to the sea. Coastal ice free areas of tundra are present separated from each other by glaciers. Each of these areas cart be considered as individual islands and Heard Island art archipelago. The distribution of 49 bryophyte taxa across five major and four minor ice-free areas was examined. Fifty percent of the bryophyte taxa exhibited widespread distribution| occurring on all ice-free islands examined Absence of some conspicuous species from particular areas appeared to reflect situations where limited habitat variation has restricted the establishment of species. With present global warming| glacial retreat on Heard Island is rapid. Consequently| areas suitable for colonization by plants are increasing and previously separated ice free areas are now merging. This study provides baseline data against which future studies will be able to investigate possible changes in bryophyte species diversity and distribution on Heard Island.
4727,1997,2,4,Ditylenchus dipsaci infestation of Trifolium repens .2. Dynamics of infestation development,Trifolium repens (white clover) stolons were inoculated with Ditylenchus dipsaci (stem nematode)| and the development of resulting infestations was monitored. Nematodes initially remained confined to superficial locations| concentrating in petiole axils near inoculation points. They were able to migrate slowly from the initial inoculation points and infest adjacent axils| especially in regions near the stolen tip. As time progressed| in some axils| nematodes migrated through the stolen epidermis and colonized slowly expanding subepidermal pockets of host tissue (ca| 0.2-mm length of stolon/day). In these loci nematodes established exponentially increasing populations| but the rates of locus expansion remained constant| indicating that locus expansion was limited by unidentified host-dependent factors. As a result of increasing population pressure within subepidermal loci| J4 entered a ''diapause'' state and the rate of egg production by adults declined| thereby reducing rate of population growth to more sustainable levels. Typically| these populations peaked at ca. 10|000 individuals in ca. 160 days occupying S-cm lengths of stolen. Thereafter| heavily infested regions of stolons started to die| leading to the formation of longitudinal splits in their epidermis. In other axils| nematodes did not migrate into the stolons but remained confined to axils. Some of these populations increased a hundred-fold in 95 days| with population growth ending when petioles started to die. Host plant stolen morphology was affected only when subepidermal stolen populations developed high population levels (>100 nematodes) within close proximity (<2 cm) to active terminal meristems. This occurred either when axillary buds became active on previously infested nodes or when nematodes established endoparasitic populations at locations near the stolen tip during winter and spring| when the rate of stolen extension was limited by low light intensity. Affected stolen tips could ''escape'' from the influence of such infestations when light intensity and temperature increased. Nematode activity was limited by low temperature rather than light intensity. Global warming is likely to lead to greater damage to infested plants during the winter and early spring because the predicted milder winter temperatures will enhance nematode activity but not necessarily promote stolen growth. 4832,1997,4,3,Early development in the study of greenhouse warming: The emergence of climate models,Following the pioneering contributions of Arrhenius| Callendar and others| climate models emerged as a very promising tool for the study of greenhouse warming. In the early 1960s| a one-dimensional| radiative-convective equilibrium model was developed as the first step towards the development of a three-dimensional model of climate. Incorporating not only the radiative but also the convective heat exchange between the earth's surface and the atmosphere| the model overcame the difficulty encountered by the earlier approach of surface radiative heat balance in estimating the magnitude of greenhouse warming. By the 1970s| a three-dimensional| general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere| coupled to a very idealized ocean of swamp-like wet surface| had been used for studies of greenhouse warming. Despite many drastic simplifications| the GCM was very effective for elucidating the physical mechanisms that control global warming and served as a stepping stone towards the use of more comprehensive| coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs for the study of this problem. 4791,1997,3,2,Eco-efficiency: A prerequisite for future success,At Roche| eco-efficiency - the optimal use of material| energy| human resources| and capital to supply innovative products to the market - is considered as a prerequisite for business success in the future. Group-wide activities to rise eco-efficiency are focussed on manufacturing processes rather than on product design| since chemical composition and structure of the Roche pharmaceutical products are defined by the desired therapeutic effect| in contrast to commodities. Three examples of currently operating eco-efficient processes at Roche are described. They cover main areas for further improvement of both environmental performance and economical benefit: less material intensity and waste for disposal| energy recovery| minimization of water consumption. Furthermore| four different indicators currently used at Roche to track environmental performance and eco-efficiency are presented: the Roche Environmental Impact Figure (REIF)| the Roche Energy Rate (RER)| the Roche contribution to man-made global warming (CO2 equivalents)| and the Eco-Efficiency Rate. (EER). These key indicators are used as a basis to recognize weaknesses and strengths| to take decisions for improvement| to set environmental targets| and as management information. 2405,1997,2,4,Ecosystem evaluation| climate change and water resources planning,This paper considers ecosystem evaluation under conditions of climate change in the context both of the U.S. Water Resources Council's Principles and Guidelines (P&G) and the more general Federal regulations governing environmental evaluation. Federal water agencies have responsibilities for protecting aquatic ecosystems through their regulatory programs and operations and planning missions. The primary concern of water resources and aquatic ecosystems planning in the United States is on the riparian or floodplain corridors of river systems. In the context of climate change| planning for these systems focusses on adaptation options both for current climate variability and for that engendered by potential climate change. Ecosystems appear to be highly vulnerable to climate change| as described in IPCC reports. Aquatic ecosystems are likely to be doubly affected| first by thermally induced changes of global warming and second by changes in the hydrologic regime. Perhaps as much as any of the issues dealt with in this issue| the evaluation of ecosystems is linked to fundamental questions of criteria as well as to the details of the Federal environmental planning system. That system is a densely woven| interlocking system of environmental protection legislation| criteria and regulations that includes a self-contained evaluation system driven by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) procedural guidelines (United States Council on Environmental Quality| 1978) and Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) requirements. The Corps of Engineers must use both the P&G and the NEPA/EIS system in discharging its responsibilities. If U.S. Federal agencies are to take the lead in formulating and evaluating adaptation options| there needs to be a reexamination of existing evaluation approaches. Among the elements of the P&G that may require rethinking in view of the prospects of global climate change are those relating to risk and uncertainty| nonstationarity| interest rates| and multiple objectives. Within the government planning process| efforts must be made to resolve inconsistencies and constraints in order to permit the optimal evaluation of water-based ecosystems under global climate change. The interrelationships of the two systems are described in this paper| and alternative ways of viewing the planning process are discussed. Strategic planning and management at the watershed level provides an effective approach to many of the issues. Current NEPA/EIS impact analysis does not provide a suitable framework for environmental impact analysis under climate uncertainty| and site-specific water resources evaluation relating to climate change appears difficult at current levels of knowledge about climate change. The IPCC Technical Guidelines| however| provide a useful beginning for assessing the impacts of future climate states. 4764,1997,4,4,Eddy parametrization and the oceanic response to idealized global warming,A coarse-grid global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to determine the role of sub-grid scale eddy parametrization schemes in the response to idealized changes in the surface heat flux| of the same order as expected under increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Two schemes are employed. The first (H) incorporates standard horizontal mixing| whereas the second (G) combines both enhanced isopycnal mixing and eddy-induced transport. Uniform surface heating anomalies of + 2Wm(-2) and - 2Wm(-2) are applied for 50 years| and the results are compared with a control experiment in which no anomalous heating is imposed. A passive ''heat'' tracer is applied uniformly (at a rate of 2Wm(-2) for 50 years) in a separate experiment. The sea-surface temperature response to global surface heating is generally larger in G| especially in the northern subtropical gyres| along the southern coast of Australia and off the Antarctic coast. A pronounced interhemispheric asymmetry (primarily arising from an anomalous response south of 35 degrees S) is evident in both H and G. The surface trapping of passive tracers in the Southern Hemisphere is generally greater in G than it is in H| and is particularly pronounced along the prime meridian (0 degrees E). Dynamical changes (i.e.| changes in horizontal and vertical currents| convection| and preferred mixing: and eddy transport pathways) enhance surface warming in the tropics and subtropics in both G and H. They are dominated by an anomalous meridional overturning centred on the equator| which may also operate in greenhouse warming experiments using coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs. Over the Southern Ocean the passive tracer experiments and associated ventilation rates suggest that surface warming will be greater in G than in H. In fact| the contrast between the dynamical responses evident in G and H in the actual heating experiments leads to a situation in which the reverse is often true. Overall| dynamical changes enhance the interhemispheric assymetry| more so in G than in H. 4698,1997,2,4,Effects of a temperature increase in a field experiment on the nitrogen release from soil cores with different humus forms,Global warming could have far-reaching consequences for the properties of soils. From the available knowledge it is postulated that an increase in temperature (ail other climatic conditions unchanged) will decrease the nitrogen contents until a new equilibrium is reached. To test this hypothesis we established in the 'Tegernsee Alps' a field experiment. In spruce-dominated montane forests 60 undisturbed soil cores (= monoliths) were carefully digged out at 1250 and 1320 m asl and reestablished at 3 elevations (1250 m and 1010 m and at 740 m asl) corresponding to a warming of around 1 and 2 degrees C. At each slope position we investigated a Dystric Cambisol with raw humus (RH) and another one with moder (MO). Each of these 6 trial-variants therefore was represented by 10 monoliths. From August 1992 to December 1995 seepage water was sampled by suction cups every 2 or 4 weeks and analyzed for the concentrations of important bioelements including aluminum| pH and electrical conductivity. After translocation to warmer climates additional nitrogen was released from both soil forms mainly as nitrate. The Cambisol with the more active humus form moder reacted stronger than the one with raw humus (additional output > 40 vs. 34 kg ha(-1) a(-1); +2 degrees C). In both soil forms the N release was accelerated in summer| in RH by 55 to 92 and in MO by 37 to 86 ppm. The Cambisol with moder showed higher nitrate leaching also in winter and thus was superior with regard to the total annual N output. In all cases Al was the most important associated cation to NO3- with 75% (RH) and 54% (MO) of the cation equivalent sum respectively The experiment thus confirms a substantial increase of nitrification even by a temperature increase of only 1 and 2 degrees C| which in permeable| well aerated sails should lead to increased nitrate leaching under conditions where no vegetation is interfering. 4721,1997,2,4,Effects of chronic environmental acidification and a summer global warming scenario: protein synthesis in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss),Protein synthesis (K-s)| net accretion (K-g)| and degradation (K-d) in liver| gills| and white muscle were measured using a flooding dose of [H-3]phenylalanine in juvenile rainbow trout chronically exposed (90 days) to softwater in the presence or absence of sublethal acidity (H2SO4| pH 5.2) alone or in combination with a 2 degrees C elevation in the normal temperature profile over the months of June-September 1993 (control temperature range 13-24 degrees C). Chronic sublethal exposure to low pH reduced protein synthesis and degradation in both the gill and liver with little apparent impact on white muscle. As a result| protein was increased in the affected tissues. This suggested that both liver and gill have some capacity to compensate for the effects of acid exposure. The 2 degrees C elevation in the normal temperature profile resulted in a slight increase in protein turnover in both gills and liver. However| during the period of peak water temperature| the 2 degrees C elevation in temperature triggered a dramatic reduction in the protein turnover rates in these tissues. The exact mechanism by which these modifications in protein turnover occurred could not be clearly established. Overall| environmental acidification in combination with a summer global warming scenario would decrease fish growth and survival| most notably during periods of peak temperatures. 4770,1997,2,4,Effects of climate change on inland waters of the Pacific Coastal Mountains and Western Great Basin of North America,The region designated as the Pacific Coastal Mountains and Western Great Basin extends from southern Alaska (64 degrees N) to southern California (34 degrees N) and ranges in altitude from sea level to 6200 m. Orographic effects combine with moisture-laden frontal systems originating in the Pacific Ocean to produce areas of very high precipitation on western slopes and dry basins of internal drainage on eastern hanks of the mountains. In the southern half of the region most of the runoff occurs during winter or spring| while in the northern part most occurs in summer| especially in glaciated basins| Analyses of long-term climatic and hydrological records| combined with palaeoclimatic reconstructions and simulations of future climates| are used as the basis for likely scenarios of climatic variations. The predicted hydrological response in northern California to a climate with doubled CO2 and higher temperatures is a decrease in the amount of precipitation falling as snow| and substantially increased runoff during winter and less in late spring and summer. One consequence of the predicted earlier runoff is higher salinity in summer and autumn in San Francisco Bay. In saline lakes| the incidence of meromixis and the associated reduction in nutrient supply and algal abundance is expected to vary significantly as runoff fluctuates. In subalpine lakes| global warming will probably will lead to increased productivity. Lacustrine productivity can also be altered by changes in wind regimes| drought-enhanced forest fires and maximal or minimal snowpacks associated with atmospheric anomalies such as Fl Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Reduced stream temperature from increased contributions of glacial meltwater and decreased channel stability from changed runoff patterns and altered sediment loads has the potential to reduce the diversity of zoobenthic communities in predominately glacier-fed rivers. Climatic warming is likely to result in reduced growth and survival of sockeye salmon in freshwater| which would| in turn| increase marine mortality. Further research activities should include expanded studies at high elevations and of glacier mass balances and glacial runoff| applications of remote sensing to monitor changes| further refinement of regional climatic models to improve forecasts of future conditions and continued analyses of long-term physical| chemical and biological data to help understand responses to future climates. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 4769,1997,4,3,Effects of climate change on the freshwaters of arctic and subarctic North America,Region 2 comprises arctic and subarctic North America and is underlain by continuous or discontinuous permafrost. Its freshwater systems are dominated by a low energy environment and cold region processes. Central northern areas are almost totally influenced by arctic air masses while Pacific air becomes more prominent in the west| Atlantic air in the east and southern air masses at the lower latitudes. Air mass changes will play an important role in precipitation changes associated with climate warming. The snow season in the region is prolonged resulting in long-term storage of water so that the spring flood is often the major hydrological event of the year| even though| annual rainfall usually exceeds annual snowfall. The unique character of ponds and lakes is a result of the long frozen period| which affects nutrient status and gas exchange during the cold season and during thaw. GCM models are in close agreement for this region and predict temperature increases as large as 4 degrees C in summer and 9 degrees C in winter for a 2 x CO? scenario. Palaeoclimate indicators support the probability that substantial temperature increases have occurred previously during the Holocene. The historical record indicates a temperature increase of >1 degrees C in parts of the region during the last century. GCM predictions of precipitation change indicate an increase| but there is little agreement amongst the various models on regional disposition or magnitude. Precipitation change is as important as temperature change in determining the water balance. The water balance is critical to every aspect of hydrology and limnology in the far north. Permafrost close to the surface plays a major role in freshwater systems because it often maintains lakes and wetlands above an impermeable frost table| which limits the water storage capabilities of the subsurface. Thawing associated with climate change would| particularly in areas of massive ice| stimulate landscape changes| which can affect every aspect of the environment. The normal spring flooding of ice-jammed north-flowing rivers| such as the Mackenzie| is a major event| which renews the water supply of lakes in delta regions and which determines the availability of habitat for aquatic organisms. Climate warming or river damming and diversion would probably lead to the complete drying of many delta lakes. Climate warning would also change the characteristics of ponds that presently freeze to the bottom and result in fundamental changes in their limnological characteristics. At present| the food chain is rather simple usually culminating in lake trout or arctic char. A lengthening of the growing season and warmer water temperature would affect the chemical| mineral and nutrient status of lakes and most likely have deleterious effects on the food chain. Peatlands are extensive in region 2. They would move northwards at their southern boundaries| and| with sustained drying| many would change form or become inactive| Extensive wetlands and peatlands are an important component of the global carbon budget| and warmer and drier conditions would most likely change them from a sink to a source for atmospheric carbon. There is some evidence that this may be occurring already. Region 2 is very vulnerable to global warming. Its freshwater systems are probably the least studied and most poorly understood in North America. There are clear needs to improve our current knowledge of temperature and precipitation patterns; to model the thermal behaviour of wetlands| lakes and rivers; to understand better the interrelationships of cold region rivers with their basins; to begin studies on the very large lakes in the region; to obtain a firm grasp of the role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle; and to link the terrestrial water balance to the thermal and hydrological regime of the polar sea. Overall there is a strong need for basic research and long-term monitoring. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 2461,1997,2,4,Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on photosynthesis and Rubisco in rice and soybean,Rice (Oryza sativa L. cv. IR-72) and soybean (Glycine max L. Merr. cv. Bragg)| which have been reported to differ in acclimation to elevated CO2| were grown for a season in sunlight at ambient and twice-ambient [CO2]| and under daytime temperature regimes ranging from 28 to 40 degrees C. The objectives of the study were to test whether CO2 enrichment could compensate for adverse effects of high growth temperatures on photosynthesis| and whether these two C-3 species differed in this regard. Leaf photosynthetic assimilation rates (A) of both species| when measured at the growth [CO2]| were increased by CO2 enrichment| but decreased by supraoptimal temperatures. However| CO2 enrichment more than compensated for the temperature-induced decline in A. For soybean| this CO2 enhancement of A increased in a linear manner by 32-95% with increasing growth temperatures from 28 to 40 degrees C| whereas with rice the degree of enhancement was relatively constant at about 60%| from 32 to 38 degrees C. Both elevated CO2 and temperature exerted coarse control on the Rubisco protein content| but the two species differed in the degree of responsiveness. CO2 enrichment and high growth temperatures reduced the Rubisco content of rice by 22 and 23%| respectively| but only by 8 and 17% for soybean. The maximum degree of Rubisco down-regulation appeared to be limited| as in rice the substantial individual effects of these two variables| when combined| were less than additive. Fine control of Rubisco activation was also influenced by both elevated [CO2] and temperature. In rice| total activity and activation were reduced| but in soybean only activation was lowered. The apparent catalytic turnover rate (K-cat) of rice Rubisco was unaffected by these variables| but in soybean elevated [CO2] and temperature increased the apparent K-cat by 8 and 22%| respectively. Post-sunset declines in Rubisco activities were accelerated by elevated [CO2] in rice| but by high temperature in soybean| suggesting that [CO2] and growth temperature influenced the metabolism of 2-carboxyarabinitol-1-phosphate| and that the effects might be species-specific. The greater capacity of soybean for CO2 enhancement of A at supraoptimal temperatures was probably not due to changes in stomatal conductance| but may be partially attributed to less down-regulation of Rubisco by elevated [CO2] in soybean than in rice. However| unidentified species differences in the temperature optimum for photosynthesis also appeared to be important. The responses of photosynthesis and Rubisco in rice and soybean suggest that among C-3 plants species-specific differences will be encountered as a result of future increases in global [CO2] and air temperatures. 2388,1997,2,4,Effects of experimental warming on arctic willows (Salix spp.): A comparison of responses from the Canadian High Arctic| Alaskan Arctic| and Swedish Subarctic,Three species of dwarf| prostrate willow (Salix arctica| S. rotundifolia and S. herbacea) were subjected to experimental summer warming in high arctic Canada| arctic Alaska| and subarctic Sweden| respectively| as part of the International Tundra Experiment. Phenological and growth responses of these species were compared for the second season of the experiment. Stigmas became receptive and pollen dispersal occurred significantly earlier for S. rotundifolia and S. herbacea in the ITEX open-top chambers| but not for S. arctica. Warming had no effect on the timing of seed dispersal| leaf yellowing| or leaf senescence. The length and dry weight of the largest leaves were greater for warmed plants| and was significant for S. rotundifolia. The number of catkins/plot did not differ among species or treatments| but the fruit:newer ratio was reduced in the experimental plots. 4750,1997,2,4,Effects of flowering time and temperature on growth and reproduction in Leontodon autumnalis var. taraxaci a late-flowering alpine plant,In most alpine and arctic plants there is selection for early flowering because of the short time available to complete seed production before the season terminates. Despite this| some species initiate flowering late in the season| but little work has been done on the reproductive ecology of such species. This work investigates the reproductive consequences of late flowering in Leontodon autumnalis var. taraxaci in alpine southwest Norway during two seasons. In addition| the effects of an experimental increase in growing-season temperature on growth and reproduction are also examined. The reproductive success of Leontodon decreased strongly as the flowering season progressed| possibly as a result of increased climatic severity and increased extent of pollen and resource limitation on reproduction. Experimentally warmed plants produced significantly more and heavier seeds| and flowered more than 1 wk earlier than control plants| showing that temperature conditions influence both reproductive processes and flowering phenology. The results suggest that this late-flowering alpine species will bloom earlier| reproduce more| and grow larger under global warming. 2462,1997,2,4,Effects of increasing UV-B radiation and atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis and growth: Implications for terrestrial ecosystems,Increases in UV-B radiation reaching the earth as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion will most likely accompany increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Many studies have examined the effects of each factor independently| but few have evaluated the combined effects of both UV-B radiation and elevated CO2. In general the results of such studies have shown independent effects on growth or seed yield. Although interspecific variation is large| high levels of UV-B radiation tends to reduce plant growth in sensitive species| while CO2 enrichment tends to promote growth in most C-3 species. However| most previous studies have not looked at temporal effects or at the relationship between photosynthetic acclimation to CO2 and possible photosynthetic limitations imposed by UV-B radiation. Elevated CO2 may provide some protection against UV-B for some species. In contrast| UV-B radiation may limit the ability to exploit elevated CO2 in other species. Interactions between the effects of CO2 enrichment and UV-B radiation exposure have also been shown for biomass allocation. Effects on both biomass allocation and photosynthetic acclimation may be important to ecosystem structure in terms of seedling establishment| competition and reproductive output. Few studies have evaluated ecosystem processes such as decomposition or nutrient cycling. Interactive effects may be subtle and species specific but should not be ignored in the assessment of the potential impacts of increases in CO2 and W-B radiation on plants. 4879,1997,2,3,Effects of UV-B radiation on terrestrial plants and ecosystems: Interaction with CO2 enrichment,UV-B radiation is just one of the environmental factors| that affect plant growth. It is now widely accepted that realistic assessment of plant responses to enhanced UV-B should be performed at sufficiently high Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR)| preferably under field conditions. This will often imply| that responses of plants to enhanced UV-B in the field will be assessed under simultaneous water shortage| nutrient deficiency and variation of temperature. Since atmospheric CO2 enrichment| global warming and increasing UV-B radiation represent components of global climatic change| interactions of UV-B with CO2 enrichment and temperature are particularly relevant. Only few relevant UV-B x CO2 interaction studies have been published. Most of these studies refer to greenhouse experiments. We report a significant CO2 x UV-B interaction for the total plant dry weight and root dry weight of the C-3-grass Elymus athericus. At elevated CO2 (720 mu mol mol(-1))| plant growth was much less reduced by enhanced UV-B than at ambient atmospheric CO2 although there were significant (positive) CO2 effects and (negative) UV-B effects on plant growth. Most other CO2 x UV-B studies do not report significant interactions on total plant biomass. This lack of CO2 x UV-B interactions may result from the fact that primary metabolic targets for CO2 and UVB are different. UV-B and CO2 may differentially affect plant morphogenetic parameters: biomass allocation| branching| flowering| leaf thickness| emergence and senescence. Such more subtle interactions between CO2 and UV-B need careful and long term experimentation to be detected. In the case of no significant CO2 x UV-B interactions| combined CO2 and UV-B effects will be additive. Plants differ in their response to CO2 and UV-B| they respond in general positively to elevated CO2 and negatively to enhanced UV-B. Moreover| plant species differ in their responsiveness to CO2 and UV-B. Therefore| even in case of additive CO2 and UV-B effects| plant competitive relationships may change markedly under current climatic change with simultaneous enhanced atmospheric CO2 and solar UV-B radiation. 4690,1997,3,4,ELA 1.0 - A framework for life-cycle impact assessment developed by the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft .A. The conceptual framework,The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft has sponsored the development of a conceptual and flexible| computer aided tool to perform the impact assessment within LCA (life cycle assessment) for technical products and processses. The developed general framework ''Ela 1.0''' (environmental loads analysis) consists of four elements: the selection of appropriate impact categories| the categorization of emissions and wastes leaving the systems as well as of resource and energy consumption| the characterization and an analysis of the results of the impact assessment. The latter compares the product-based emissions with the total of emissions of a region such as Germany| the EU or OECD countries. The framework Ela 1.0 considers the environmental categories: global warming| ozone depletion| resource and energy consumption| wastes| eutrophication (including COD and BOD as measured parameters)| acidification| ecotoxicity| ozone formation and human toxicity. The latter categories are handled by listing of precursors for ozone formation| and by listing of emissions scored according to their human hazard potential. The options| possibilities and limitations of the conceptual framework are presented in part A of a series of publications. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4782,1997,2,4,Elevated CO2 and moisture effects on soil carbon storage and cycling in temperate grasslands,In grassland ecosystems| most of the carbon (C) occurs below-ground. Understanding changes in soil fluxes induced by elevated atmospheric CO2 is critical for balancing the global C budget and for managing grassland ecosystems sustainably. In this review| we use the results of short-term (1-2 years) studies of below-ground processes in grassland communities under elevated CO2 to assess future prospects for longer-term increases in soil C storage. Results are broadly consistent with those from other plant communities and include: increases in below-ground net primary productivity and an increase in soil C cycling rate| changes in soil faunal community| and generally no increase in soil C storage. Based on other experimental data| future C storage could be favoured in soils of moderate nutrient status| moderate-to-high clay content| and low (or moderately high) soil moisture status. Some support for these suggestions is provided by preliminary results from direct measurements of soil C concentrations near a New Zealand natural CO2-venting spring| and by simulations of future changes in grassland soils under the combined effects of CO2 fertilization and regional climate change. Early detection of any increase in soil C storage appears unlikely in complex grassland communities because of (a) the difficulty of separating an elevated CO2 effect from the effects of soil factors including moisture status| (b) the high spatial variability of soil C and (c) the effects of global warming. Several research imperatives are identified for reducing the uncertainties in the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on soil C. 4843,1997,4,3,Elevation dependency of the surface climate change signal: A model study,Results are presented from a present-day and a doubled CO2 experiment over the Alpine region with a nested regional climate model. The simulated temperature change signal shows a substantial elevation dependency| mostly during the winter and spring seasons| resulting in more pronounced waring at high elevations than low elevations. This is caused by a depletion of snowpack in doubled CO2 conditions and further enhanced by the snow-albedo feedback. This result is consistent with some observed temperature trends for anomalously warm years over the Alpine region and suggests that high elevation temperature changes could be used as an early detection tool for global warming. Changes in precipitation| as well as other components of the surface energy and water budgets| also show an elevation signal| which may have important implications for impact assessments in high elevation regions. 4695,1997,3,3,Emissions of N(2)O and NO associated with nitrogen fertilization in intensive agriculture| and the potential for mitigation,Increases in the atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) contribute to global warming and to ozone depletion in the stratosphere Nitric oxide (NO) is a cause of acid rain and tropospheric ozone. The use of N fertilizers in agriculture has direct and indirect effects an the emissions of both these gases| which are the result of microbial nitrification and denitrification in the soil| and which are controlled principally by soil water and mineral N contents| temperature and labile organic matter The global emission of N(2)O from cultivated land is now estimated at 3.5 Tg N annually of which 1.5 Tg has been directly attributed ro synthetic N fertilizers| out of a total quantity applied in 1990 of about 77 Tg N. This amount was 150% above the 1970 figure. The total fertilizer-induced emissions of NO are somewhere in the range 0.5-5 Tg N. Mineral N fertilizers can also be indirect as well as direct sources of N(2)O and NO emissions| via deposition of volatilized NH(3) on natural ecosystems and denitrification of leached nitrate in subsoils| waters and sediments. IPCC currently assume an N(2)O emission factor of 1.25 +/- 1.0% of fertilizer N applied. No allowance is made for different fertilizer types| on the basis that soil management and cropping systems| and unpredictable rainfall inputs| are more important variables. However| recent results show substantial reductions in emissions from grassland by matching fertilizer type to environmental conditions| and in arable systems by using controlled release fertilizers and nitrification inhibitors| Also better timing and placement of N| application of the minimum amount of N to achieve satisfactory yield| and optimization of soil physical conditions| particularly avoidance of excessive wetness and compaction| would be expected to reduce the average emission factor for N(2)O. Some of these adjustments would also reduce NO emissions. However| increasing global fertilizer use is likely to cause an upward trend in total emissions even if these mitigating practices become widely adopted. 4814,1997,3,4,Energy balance of global CO2 recycling and amounts of reduction of CO2 emission,On the basis of tailoring of amorphous alloy electrodes for seawater electrolysis to form H-2 and amorphous alloy catalysts for conversion of CO2 to CH4| we are proposing global CO2 recycling: At deserts; power generation by solar energy| at coasts close to the deserts; production of H-2 by electrolysis of seawater| production of CH4 by the reaction of H-2 and CO2 transported| and at energy consuming districts; combustion of CH4| recovery of CO2 and transportation of liquefied CO2 to the coast close to the deserts. Since Egyptian scientists agree with us to do collaboration| the energy balance and the amount of reduction of CO2 emission in the global CO2 recycling between Middle East and Japan are estimated for the operation of a 1 GW CH4-combustion power plant. The energy consumed in a year up to liquefaction of CH4 including that corresponding to the repayment of solar power plant is almost the same as that spent up to obtaining LNG. The energy necessary for the global CO2 recycling is only 8.7% higher than the energy necessary for LNG combustion for power generation without control of CO2 emission. The extra energy is for recovery| liquefaction and transportation of CO2. The reduction of CO2 emission by the global CO2 recycling is 79% of CO2 emission from an LNG combustion power plant| that is| 2.62 Mtons/year. 4821,1997,4,3,Environment - A liability and an asset for economic development: Some views on environmental protection with economic development in Bhutan,National rights of utilization of natural resources (depletion of primary forest| decrease in range of biodiversity| etc.) and rights of polluting the 'global commons'| contributing to global warming| depletion of the ozone layer| etc.| have become central themes in today's international debate. For a small| least-developed country like Bhutan| which began modern economic development only 35 years ago after centuries of self-imposed isolation and hence still has most of its natural resources and environment intact| the question is how to spur much needed economic growth while preserving its pristine environment. Rapid population growth and the desire for economic development in a rugged mountainous terrain imposes a potential threat to the environment. Bhutan's National Environment Strategy has identified intersectoral contradictions and possible synergies in resource utilization and the need for institutional reforms| policies| manpower development| information| and legislation to achieve the goal of balanced sustainable development. The challenge ahead is the implementation of this strategy| as environmental regulations must be fitted into the society's economic and social structure. While promoting economic development| preservation of the environment can easily become a liability to Bhutan. There is the great danger that Bhutan's unique environment will come to be seen by other nations as just another unexploited asset. 2445,1997,3,4,Environmental advantages to the utilization of geothermal energy,Geothermal energy is a technically-proven| cost effective source of electrical and thermal energy that has been utilized for many decades. Recent estimates indicate that over 6700 MWe (megawatts electrical) and 8200 MWt (megawatts thermal) are currently developed throughout the world. This paper discusses the specific environmental advantages to the development of geothermal electrical power and direct use projects and demonstrates how environmental impacts can be easily mitigated using existing technologies. In the areas of CO2| NOx| and SO2 emissions| land disturbance per MWe and disposal of waste products| geothermal energy has significantly fewer impacts than most other energy sources| particularly conventional fossil and nuclear fuels. Examples are sited where geothermal developments have occurred in pristine areas with no significant impacts and even offering the opportunity for improving environmental conditions. There is a strong need for energy policy makers throughout the world to recognize the environmental advantages of geothermal energy and to incorporate their economic value when pricing and selecting new sources of energy. Copyright (C) 1996 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 4792,1997,2,4,Environmental factors affecting migration of the European eel in the Rivers Severn and Avon| England,Studies were conducted during 1991-1993 on environmental factors affecting the upstream migration of eels in the Rivers Severn and Avon| England. Migrants (>156 000 pigmented elvers and >189 000 juveniles) were trapped as they attempted to ascend weir or sluice barriers. Multiple regression models were developed to compare catches per trap per night (C) with data for various key environmental parameters at seven sites| from the tidal limit to a maximum of 42.5 km upstream. The key stimulus for migration of both elvers and juveniles at the tidal limit was water temperature| with some weaker monthly influences related to seasonal temperature increases. Smaller annual influences probably related to earlier glass eel recruitment into the lower estuary. A weak early tidal effect was demonstrated only once| in 1993 in the Severn. Temperature also exerted significant effects on C of juvenile eels at the tidal limit and in the non-tidal rivers| although effects weakened with distance upstream. Year| month| river flows and whether traps were mounted on weirs or sluices made only small contributions at a few sites. Distance between traps also contributed to combined data for upper Severn sites. The threshold temperature in all cases was 14-16 degrees C| with low to zero catches below 10-11 degrees C| catch maxima being achieved above 18-20 degrees C. The implications of strong temperature-dependence of migration in relation to stock recruitment and management are discussed. Special reference is made to recent decreases in recruitment of eels to Europe and N. America and possible long-term effects of global warming. (C) 1997 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles. 4872,1997,3,4,Environmental impact considerations in the optimal design and scheduling of batch processes,A systematic methodology for incorporating ecological considerations in the optimal design and scheduling of batch/semi-continuous processes is presented in this paper. The methodology embeds principles from Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) within a general multi-objective formulation for the design of multipurpose batch plants| with process economics and environmental impact as distinct design objectives. An expanded boundary is defined around the process of interest| for the consistent evaluation of environmental impact| which is quantified by a set of metrics (for air| water pollution| global warming etc.). Examples from the dairy industry are presented to demonstrate the potential of the methodology to assist in arriving at environmentally friendly and economically favourable batch designs and schedules. Issues regarding the use of alternative cleaning and legislation policies on batch operation and design are also discussed. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4873,1997,3,4,Environmental services as a strategy for sustainable development in rural Amazonia,Rural Amazonians| especially Indians| extractivists and other forest dwellers| desperately need something that they can sell. Sale of material commodities taken from the rainforest is the focus of most attempts to encourage 'sustainable development' for these populations| but the mother lode waiting to be tapped is not a material commodity| but rather the forest's environmental services. Converting services like biodiversity maintenance| carbon storage and water cycling into monetary flows that can support a population of forest guardians requires crossing a series of hurdles. Reliable quantification of the magnitude of services being offered is a first necessity. How to convert forest environmental services into an income stream| and how to convert this stream into a foundation for sustainable development in rural Amazonia is a great challenge. Effort should be focused on tapping environmental services as a long-term strategy for maintaining both rainforest and its population. In addition to progressing toward long-term goals| immediate measures are needed to support the population and to avoid further loss of forest. 4726,1997,3,3,Estimate of methane emissions from the US natural gas industry,Global methane emissions from the fossil fuel industries have been poorly quantified and| in many cases| emissions are not well-known even at the country level. Historically| methane emissions from the U.S. gas industry have been based on sparse data| incorrect assumptions| or both. As a result| the estimate of the contribution these emissions make to the global methane inventory could be inaccurate. For this reason the assertion that global warming could be reduced by replacing coal and oil fuels with natural gas could not be defended. A recently completed| multi year study conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development and the Gas Research Institute had the objective of determining methane emissions from the U.S. gas industry with an accuracy of +/- 0.5% of production. The study concluded that| in the 1992 base year| methane emissions from the industry were 314 +/- 105 Bscf or 6.04 +/- 2.01 Tg (all conversions to international units are made at 15.56 degrees C and 101.325 kPa). Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 2440,1997,4,4,Estimation and use of a multivariate parametric model for simulating heteroskedastic| correlated| nonnormal random variables: The case of corn belt corn| soybean| and wheat yields,This study develops a multivariate| nonnormal density function that can accurately and separately account for skewness| kurtosis| heteroskedasticity| and the correlation among the random variables of interest. The statistical attributes of the underlying random variables and correlation processes are examined. The potential applications of this modeling tool are discussed and exemplified by analyzing and simulating Corn Belt corn| soybean| and wheat yields. While corn and soybean yields are found to be skewed and kurtotic and exhibit different variances through time| wheat yields appear normal but also heteroskedastic. A strong correlation is detected between corn and soybean yields. 4816,1997,4,4,Estimation of the global warming trend by wavelet analysis,The self-similar (scaling) structure of temporal oscillations of the annual mean global surface air temperature during 1854-1990 is studied by wavelet analysis| These oscillations are divided into a statistically stationary part with atypical variation of about 0.5 degrees C/10 years and a trend of global warming with an increment of 0.58-0.69 degrees C/100 years. The trend has been found since 1900. Separate extrapolations of the oscillatory part and the trend at the end of the 20th century indicate that further growth of the global surface air temperature will possibly be checked. 2399,1997,2,4,Evaporation components of a boreal forest: Variations during the growing season,To improve the understanding of interactions between the boreal forest and the climate system as a key issue for global climate change| the water budget of a mixed pine and spruce forest in central Sweden was estimated by measurements of the water flux components and the total evaporation flux during the period 16 May-31 October 1995. Total evaporation was measured using eddy correlation and the components were obtained using measurements of precipitation| throughfall| tree transpiration| and forest floor evaporation| On a daily basis| tree transpiration was the dominant evaporation component during the vegetation period. However| it could be efficiently blocked by a wet canopy associated with large interception evaporation. The accumulated total evaporation was 399 mm| transpiration was 243 mm| forest float evaporation was 56 mm and interception evaporation was 74 mm| The accumulated sum of interception| transpiration| and floor evaporation was 51 mm larger than the actual measured total evaporation. This difference was mainly attributed to the fact that transpiration was measured in a rather dense 50-year-old stand while total evaporation represented the average conditions of older| roughly 100-year-old stands. To compare eddy-correlation measurements with small-scale measurements of evaporation components| a source area analysis was made to select the flux data that give the best representation of the investigated stand. Especially under stable atmospheric conditions the requirements for surface homogeneity were very high and extreme care had to be taken to be aware of the flux source areas. Canopy water storage was determined by two methods: by the water balance of the canopy| which gave a result of 3.3 mm; and by the so-called minimum method based on plots of throughfall versus precipitation| which gave a much lower value of 1.5 mm. Seasonal interception evaporation constituted 30% of the precipitation. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 2386,1997,2,4,Experimental manipulations of snow-depth: effects on nutrient content of caribou forage,We investigated the potential effects of global climate change on arctic tundra vegetation used as caribou forage. A total of 96 experimental plots was established at six sites on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge| Alaska| in 1993 and 1994. We erected snow-fences to increase the amount of snow deposition| and therefore delay the date of the snowmelt on 48 plots (referred to as increased snow/late melting plots). We used black mesh netting on the surface of the snow to increase the rate of melting on 24 plots; the remaining 24 plots served as controls. In July 1994| we collected green leaves from Eriophorum vaginatum| Salix planifolia| and Betula nana and analysed these samples for total carbon and total nitrogen content. Ratios of carbon to nitrogen differed among treatments for all three species. Generally C:N ratios for B. nana and E. vaginatum on increased snow/late melting plots were lower than on control plots. C:N ratios for S. planifolia on increased snow/late melting plots did not differ from controls| but were lower than on plots which started to melt early. These results may be due to the timing of nitrogen translocation from leaf and stem tissue into storage organs| or due to an increase in available nitrogen input to the system. Further sampling is needed to adequately determine the mechanism responsible for increased nitrogen content of caribou forage in areas with increased amount of snow and delayed snowmelt. 4831,1997,2,3,Experimentally increased soil temperature causes release of nitrogen at a boreal forest catchment in southern Norway,Boreal forest ecosystems are sensitive to global warming| caused by increasing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Assessment of the biological response to future climate change is based mainly on large-scale models. Whole-ecosystem experiments provide one of the few available tools by which ecosystem response can be measured and with which global models can be evaluated. Boreal ecosystem response to global change may be manifest by alterations in nitrogen (N) dynamics| as N is often the growth limiting nutrient. The CLIMEX (Climate Change Experiment) project entails catchment-scale manipulations of CO2 (to 560 ppmv) and temperature (by + 3 to + 5 degrees C) to whole forest ecosystems in southern Norway. Soil temperature is increased at 400-m(2) EGIL catchment by means of electric cables placed on the soil surface. Soil warming at EGIL catchment caused an increase in nitrate and ammonium concentrations in runoff in the first year of treatment. We hypothesize that higher temperature increased N release by mineralization. Whether these responses are only transient will be shown by additional years' treatment. 4871,1997,3,4,External costs - What do they mean for energy policy?,The European Commission's ExternE Project has made major advances in the quantification of external costs of electricity| Although some impacts cannot be valued| important conclusions are possible| This paper outlines some provisional implications for energy policy| External costs are technology dependent and for some older power plants are large compared to electricity prices| Global warming and nuclear accidents have very uncertain external costs and pose threats to sustainability. Well located renewable energy sources have low external costs and provide sustainable energy options| Both economic and regulatory instruments may be used for internalizing environmental externalities - a mix will be most appropriate. Copyright (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4757,1997,2,3,Farming: Closing the cycle,The natural cycle of plant and animal life involves recycling materials through the open environment. Thus carbon dioxide and many waste substances are released to the soil or atmosphere and returned to be taken up by plants. Modern agriculture has intensified the production of many substances| with unwanted effects on the atmosphere (including global warming and acid rain)| water and soil. Moreover| because most drops are grown as monoculture| competing plants| and pests and diseases| are controlled through a wide range of agrochemicals which also affect the environment; herbicides remain a major case of drinking water failing to meet the required standards. A 'clean technology' approach is urgently needed| and current research is showing the way. Research on the nitrogen cycle indicates| for example| that nitrogen losses from intensive dairy production can be reduced by up to 70%; however| changes to the whole farm system are needed to achieve results. Both engineering and biological approaches offer ways of reducing pesticide use; we can use computer control and decision support to improve the precision with which chemicals are applied; we can seek new understanding of chemical-insect-plant interactions which allow new control techniques (such as semiochemicals| which influence insect behaviour) to be derived. Agriculture can also provide a sustainable source of clean energy and could also supply industrial products such as oils and fibres| reducing our dependence on petrochemicals. 2422,1997,4,4,Formation and accumulation of gas hydrate in porous media,Vast quantities of clathrate hydrate are found in the Arctic and in marine sediments along continental margins. The clathrate structure traps enormous volumes of methane gas| which is both a possible source of global climate change and a potential energy resource. The growth rate and spatial distribution of gas hydrate in the shallow sediments are influenced by a variety of interacting physical processes. In order to quantify these processes| we develop mathematical models for hydrate formation in porous media. An analytical model is derived for the idealized problem of hydrate growth in a porous half-space which is cooled on its boundary. Our calculations predict the growth rate of a hydrate layer for a given rate of cooling and show that the volume of hydrate is strongly dependent on the two-phase equilibrium between hydrate and seawater. For a representative phase diagram we find that the volume of hydrate in the layer is less than 1% of the pore volume. Larger volumes of hydrate observed in some locations demand a sustained supply of gas and a long accumulation time. Numerical calculations are used to investigate situations that are more representative of conditions in marine sediments. A simple theoretical expression is derived for the rate of hydrate accumulation due to advection of methane gas from depth. Using typical estimates of fluid velocities in accretionary environments| we obtain an accumulation rate of 1% of the pore volume in 10(5) years. The predicted vertical distribution of hydrate is consistent with geophysical inferences from observed hydrate occurrences along the Cascadia margin. Similar distributions can arise from the combined effects of in situ methane production and warming due to ongoing sedimentation. Predicted differences between these two formation models may be detectable in geophysical and geochemical measurements. 2441,1997,4,4,From Arrhenius to megascience: Interplay between science and public decisionmaking,The life and work of Svante Arrhenius provides an interesting window on changes in the role of science in society. One hundred years ago| Arrhenius too served as science adviser to government| and he emphasized the importance of internationalism. World War I ruptured the social relations of science| and marked the beginning of a complex intertwining of research with the realm of politics. This paper considers Arrhenius' response to this trend| and asks what he would have thought of today's situation when climatology has become a megascience. Some hints of a possible answer are given against the background of a review of Arrhenius' ideas on method| and his Darwinian perspective on the growth of scientific knowledge. In the course of this| the author makes some observations on how policy determination of scientific agendas introduces an organized social dimension| where the drive for consensus may contradict the traditional ideal of a ''Darwinian struggle of hypotheses''| Arrhenius advocated. At the same time it is noted how the traditional ideal of science as neutral ''truth speaking to power'' is constantly being resuscitated| among others by the leading echelon of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is suggested that the social dynamics of global-climate-change-science (or ''greenhouse research'') may be understood in terms of a model of mutually reinforcing credibility cycles| linking science and politics. 2410,1997,5,3,Gases in ice cores,Air trapped in glacial ice offers a means of reconstructing variations in the concentrations of atmospheric gases over time scales ranging from anthropogenic (last 200 yr) to glacial/interglacial (hundreds of thousands of years)| In this paper| we review the glaciological processes by which air is trapped in the ice and discuss processes that fractionate gases in ice cores relative to the contemporaneous atmosphere| We then summarize concentration-time records for CO2 and CH4 over the last 200 yr| Finally| we summarize concentration-time records for CO2 and CH4 during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles| and their relation to records of global climate change. 2411,1997,2,4,Geochemistry of corals: Proxies of past ocean chemistry| ocean circulation| and climate,This paper presents a discussion of the status of the field of coral geochemistry as it relates to the recovery of past records of ocean chemistry| ocean circulation| and climate| The first part is a brief review of coral biology| density banding| and other important factors involved in understanding corals as proxies of environmental variables| The second part is a synthesis of the information available to date on extracting records of the carbon cycle and climate change| II is clear from these proxy records that decade time-scale variability of mixing processes in the oceans is a dominant signal| That Western and Eastern tropical Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) records differ is an important piece of the puzzle for understanding regional and global climate change| Input of anthropogenic CO2 to the oceans as observed by C-13 and C-14 isotopes in corals is partially obscured by natural variability| Nonetheless| the general trend over time toward lower delta(18)O values at numerous sites in the world's tropical oceans suggests a gradual warming and/or freshening of the surface ocean over the past century. 2436,1997,4,4,Geographic information systems and the distribution of Schistosoma mansoni in the Nile delta,New computer-based sensor technology and geographic methods have led to emerging interest in use of satellite environmental assessment tools for design of disease control programs| especially for those that are vector borne. The long-range goal of work reported here by John Malone and colleagues on behalf of this Egyptian Ministry of Health-USAID Schistosomiasis Research Project team (Box 1) is to utilize data from sensor systems on board earth-observing satellites to develop more-sensitive disease-prediction and -control models. If successful| methods developed may provide a potentially vital capability for use by disease control program managers| particularly in less-developed countries| where mapping resources ave not well advanced. Longer term| broader basic questions on the interaction of environment and disease in anticipation of predicted global climate change may be addressed. These studies focused on the lower Nile river basin of Egypt The specific objective wits to link data on environmental requirements for propagation and transmission of schistosomiasis with parameters measurable from space. 4745,1997,2,4,GIS assessment of the vulnerability of the Rosetta area| Egypt to impacts of sea rise,A study of the area| including Rosetta city and the estuary of the river Nile (Rosetta branch)| has been carried out for assessment of the impact of sea level rise (sir). A geographic information system (GIS) has been built including layers of land use| topography| archeological sites| land cover and population. Analysis of data has been carried out to assess vulnerability of various land use and land cover classes to the impact of sea level rise. Because the area under study has geomorphic relief profiles just over the sea level| inundation of total land could reach 26% of total study area due to only half a meter rise in sea level. This lost area includes 32% of urban clusters mainly used for human shelter and contains 52% of present monuments| 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation| 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable| 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation| 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable for agricultural reclamation (although suffering from salt water intrusion and soil salinization). This is expected to cause a significant impact on the present population| economic activities| total regional revenue| and also on tourism. At 1.1 m sea level rise| 72% to total study area could be inundated. This area contains all beaches| half of the palm cultivation| 43% of total urban clusters| which includes 81% of the monumental sites and historic buildings. Other environmental problems such as solid waste management| sanitary disposal network| deteriorating conditions of some monumental structures| in addition to the sea level rise act negatively on the environmental quality of the urban community. Future plans for urban expansion in the area must be studied carefully in order to preserve valuable palm lands and maintain and protect monuments and historic sites which help the promotion of tourism. An environmental management program is essential for upgrading tourism| promoting urban development and protecting coastal lands. 4837,1997,3,3,GLAD: A gas-lift method for CO2 disposal into the ocean,To mitigate global warming| we have proposed the GLAD (Gas-Lift Advanced Dissolution) system for CO2 release into deep seawater. It is an inverse-J pipeline set in the sea at a depth of 200-400m. CO2 bubbles injected into the pipe form a buoyant plume and dissolve into the seawater as they rise. This dense solution is released from the other side of the pipe. The feasibility of our method has been examined by the numerical simulation of gas-liquid| two-phase flow with a CO2 dissolution model. In the present paper| the performance and cost of the GLAD system are discussed based on a model plant. 2427,1997,3,3,Global climate change adaptation: Examples from Russian boreal forests,The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the world's timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global| national| and local levels| as well as| provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Large shifts in the distribution (up to 19% area reduction) and productivity of boreal forests are implied by scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs)| Uncertainty regarding the potential distribution and productivity of future boreal forests complicates the development of adaptation strategies for forest establishment| management| harvesting and wood processing. Although a low potential exists for rapid natural adaptation of long lived| complex boreal forests| recent analyses suggest Russian forest management and utilization strategies should be field tested to assess their potential to assist boreal forests in adaptation to a changing global environment. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented| including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaptation measures for them; (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change| however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation. 2412,1997,2,4,Global climate change and natural-area protection: Management responses and research directions,During the past decade| our understanding of the potential risks that climate change poses to ecosystem function and natural-area protection has increased. Simulation studies of expected changes in species ranges and changes in ecosystem dynamics have indicated that rapidly changing climatic conditions could significantly thwart natural-area protection efforts at a global scale. In response to this potential threat| prescriptive policy and management recommendations have begun to emerge. These management responses include general guidelines for selecting new protected habitats| preemptive actions such as the development of connective corridor systems between protected areas| and active habitat management interventions. At present| many suggested natural-area management responses are only vaguely defined and have yet to be fully tested. To be effective| management responses must now be rigorously assessed with focused and practical ecological analysis. In this overview I examine the current state of research on the risks posed to natural-area protection by climate change and the feasibility of suggested management responses. Examples of potential impacts on global nature-reserve systems| the composition of landscape boundaries of natural ecosystems| and latitudinal differences in expected ecosystem response are presented to illustrate the complexity of potential habitat changes. Examples of potential nature-reserve impacts are provided to demonstrate that the spatial variation presented in climate-change scenarios significantly affects the distribution of climatic impacts on areas of biodiversity protection. An assessment of the composition of landscape boundaries of natural vegetation areas is used to demonstrate the urgent need for analysis of ecosystem dynamics in human-dominated landscapes. Changes in potential vegetation zones at different latitudes are presented to identify limitations in the use of generic rules of altitudinal species response applied globally. Ecological researchers can advance our understanding of ecosystem responses to climate change by conducting well-defined sensitivity analyses at site-specific or sub-regional scales; the current lack of fine-scale climate models need not delay such research. Direct extrapolation of observed species distributions in relation to present climate as a means for projecting future responses is inappropriate; such projections must include consideration of physiological tolerances| competition| and dispersal mechanisms. Understanding local disturbance regimes is fundamental to understanding changes in ecosystem properties and stability. How landscape fragmentation interacts with population mobility and dynamics must be defined in order to better characterize ecosystem controls. Finally| management interventions must be critically evaluated with regard to ecological viability and benefits vs. costs. 2401,1997,2,4,Global climate change and phenotypic variation among red deer cohorts,The variability of two fitness-related phenotypic traits (body weight and a mandibular skeletal ratio) was analysed among cohorts and age-classes of red deer in Norway Phenotypic variation among cohorts was pronounced for calves| yearlings and reproductively mature adults. Fluctuations in cohort-specific mean body weights and skeletal ratios of adults correlated with global climatic variation in winter conditions influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation while cohorts were in utero. Red deer born following warm winters were smaller than those born after cold winters| and this inter-cohort variability persisted into adulthood. Phenotypic variation among cohorts of red deer influenced by climate change may pose consequences for fitness of cohorts since body size and condition contribute to reproductive success and survival in male and female red deer. In particular| the recent trend of increasingly warm winters in northern Europe and Scandinavia may lead to reduced body size and fecundity of red deer| and perhaps other ungulates| in those areas. 2419,1997,2,3,Global climate change: Processes and products - An overview,Our knowledge of global climate change has many uncertainties. Whether global air temperature will increase| by how much| and when| are subject to debate| but there is little doubt that tropospheric concentrations of several trace gases are increasing. While possible increases in the average air temperature is a product of these changes| the increases in the trace gases alone will have an effect on agriculture. Increases in the ambient concentrations of carbon dioxide are expected to have a positive net effect on crop production. In contrast| any increases in the penetration of surface-level ultraviolet-B (280-320 nm) radiation| and known increases in surface ozone concentrations| are considered to have adverse effects on certain crops. Our present knowledge of the joint effects on crops of elevated levels of carbon dioxide| ultraviolet-B radiation and ozone| and possible alterations in air temperature and precipitation patterns| is virtually zero. Therefore| any predictions of the effects of global climate change on agriculture are subject to significant uncertainties. In contrast| coupling of climate change (only temperature and precipitation) models to crop production has led to a number of future scenarios. In spite of their present limitations| results from these efforts can be useful in planning for future agriculture. 2400,1997,2,2,Global climate change: the potential effects on health,Introduction Excess carbon dioxide| methane| and other gases which trap heat are accumulating in the troposphere| the earth's lower atmosphere| because of the scale and type of human economic activity. Climate scientists predict that the resultant increase in the troposphere's "radiative forcing" will warm the earth's surface.1 2 3 Indeed| in its recent second assessment report| the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-a multidisciplinary scientific body established by the United Nations in 1988 to advise governments-concluded that on balance an anthropogenic influence upon the global climate was now "discernible." 1 The intergovernmental panel forecasts an increase in the average world temperature of 1.0-3.5°C over the coming century.1 This forecast is necessarily uncertain because the sensitivity of climate to atmospheric change is imperfectly understood and because future trends in gaseous emissions and modulating processes (for example| the cooling effects of industrial aerosol emissions) cannot be foreseen accurately. Nevertheless| the expected rate of climate change over the coming century would be far greater than any natural change in world climate since the advent of agriculture 10 000 years ago. Anthropogenic climate change signifies that for the first time the aggregate global impact of humankind exceeds the physical and ecological limits of the biosphere.4 The potential consequences of this and other global changes (including stratospheric ozone depletion| loss of biodiversity| worldwide land degradation| and depletion of aquifers) are wide ranging. We can expect that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of human populations in diverse ways. This greatly extends the temporo-spatial scale of environmental health beyond our usual concern with localised and immediate exposures to toxic or infectious agents.4 A major research task| therefore| is the application of current knowledge to forecasting probable health effects. The primary objective is to provide indicative forecasts of an important consequence that will assist pre-emptive policy making.5
4719,1997,3,2,Global energy prospects in the 21st century: a battery-based society,Current energy needs are nearly totally dependent on fossil fuels. This is causing global warming and exhaustion of resources; it is important to switch to more efficient and effective energy use. These circumstances are expanding the role of secondary batteries. Non-fossil fuels such as photovoltaic cells and wind energy are unstable| but combining them with secondary batteries improves their stability as electric power sources. If electrical load leveling between day and night can be achieved by storing electric power| it will be possible to achieve a high capacity utilization rate for generating facilities that have high generating efficiency and produce little CO2. Depending on the generating mix| the practicalization of electric vehicles will serve not only to alleviate air pollution| but also to limit CO2 emissions. There are hopes for the development of large-capacity lithium secondary batteries with long cycle life| high energy density| high power density| and high energy efficiency. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. 4694,1997,2,3,Global prediction of area change of suitable regions for cereal cultivation caused by global warming,Estimation of contemporary production regions of major cereal around the world is significant to predict food supply in the 21st century. We introduced the concept of suitable regions for cultivation. Our proposed method is to identify global suitable regions for major cereal cultivation using weather data| soil data| and vegetative biomass change patterns. We estimated the present area of suitable regions for major cereal cultivation to be 515 Mha. By comparison with the 1993 FAO statistical values| it was concluded that our method accurately identifies global suitable regions for major cereal cultivation and determines their area. Under conditions of double the current CO2 concentration| it was estimated that the area of suitable regions would be 279 Mha which represents a decrease of 46 per cent. 4712,1997,2,2,Global warming and active-layer thickness: results from transient general circulation models,The near-surface thermal regime in permafrost regions could change significantly in response to anthropogenic climate warming. Because there is only a small lag between these two processes| the impact of warming on the active layer can be investigated using relatively simple climate-driven models. A formulation attributable to Kudryavtsev was used to study the potential increase of active-layer thickness in the permafrost regions of the Northern Hemisphere| where warming is predicted to be more pronounced than elsewhere. Kudryavtsev's solution was validated using contemporary data| and successfully reproduced the actual depths of frost and thaw at widely spaced locations in North America and Eurasia. Modem climatic data and scenarios of climate change for 2050| derived from three transient coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs)| were used in conjunction with the thaw-depth solution to generate hemispheric maps showing contemporary active-layer thickness for several soil types and moisture conditions| and its relative changes over the next century. The simulations indicate a 20-30% increase of active-layer thickness for most of the permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere| with the largest relative increases concentrated in the northernmost locations. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 4723,1997,2,4,Global warming and water management: Water allocation and project evaluation,This paper explores the sensitivity of the benefits of alternative water allocation schemes and of project evaluation to global warming. If global warming shifts the mean of annual water supplies| there could be large impacts on the expected values of alternative water allocation schemes. The first section of the paper explores how well alternative schemes (such as market mechanisms| prior rights| or percentage flows) perform if the distribution of flows changes. In a case study of the Colorado River| market mechanisms and flow guarantees result in smaller impacts than rules which allocate inefficient percentages of flows to heterogeneous users. The second part of the paper explores the effect of a gradually changing distribution of flows on project evaluations. Project evaluation is sensitive to predicted future changes in mean flows. Project evaluation is not sensitive to changes in the variance of future flows unless the variance increase is large and the benefit measure is highly curvilinear. Because basin-specific changes in runoff from global warming are currently uncertain and much delayed| most project analyses will be unaffected by global warming. The most important response by water managers to climate change may simply be to closely monitor runoff and incorporate flexible rules in order to adapt their behavior to observed changes. 4789,1997,4,4,Global warming potentials: Ambiguity or precision as an aid to policy?,It is widely assumed that the more certain and precise the scientific knowledge-base for predicting and understanding climate change| the better defined and robust will be the policy measures undertaken in response. In this paper we argue to the contrary that in the case of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) ambiguity in their precise meaning is a major reason why they have been developed and continue as scientific policy tools [although this is not how they are commonly represented in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)]. We survey and analyse the range of opinion on GWPs with respect to their scientific stability and comprehensiveness and argue that the utility of GWPs has to be evaluated in terms of their symbolic| interactional and heuristic effects as well as with respect to their direct instrumental uses. In addition| we argue that scientific discussion of GWPs commonly incorporates elements of the social and policy contexts of their application and provide several examples from detailed discussions at the IPCC. We endeavour to account for the ambiguous identity of GWPs and draw out several implications from the findings of the paper for the construction and use of scientific tools in policy. 2447,1997,2,4,Gradients| vegetation and climate: spatial and temporal dynamics in the Olympic mountains| USA,The steep environmental gradients of mountains result in the juxtaposition of diverse vegetation associations with narrow ecotones because life zones are compressed. Variation in geologic substrate| landforms| and soils| in combination with steep environmental gradients| create habitat diversity across spatial scales from 10(6) ha to less than 10 m(2). This leads to higher biodiversity in a smaller space than in landscapes with less topographic variation. Mountains are often considered to be refuges for biological diversity at the regional scale| although variation in landscape features creates refuges at a fine scale as well. Mountains should also be considered a source of biological diversity| because they provide the germplasm for migration into lowland areas following glacial recession. Many taxa are distributed over a broad range of elevations andhabitats| which maximizes the potential to respond to environmental perturbations. Reorganization of species distribution and abundance as a result of climatic change may be impacted considerably by human-caused fragmentation of landscape features| especially at lower elevations. This paper uses palaeoecological and biogeographical data to investigate the spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics of a steep maritime range| the Olympic Mountains (USA). The role of resource management in protecting vegetation in a fragmented landscape is discussed| with emphasis on how to address uncertainties such as climatic change.
4890,1997,3,2,Greenhouse gas chemistry,One of the major problems facing mankind is the global warming of the atmosphere due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases. Mitigation of these greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere can be achieved by using direct control technologies (capture| disposal or chemical recycling). In this paper| we report on carbon dioxide and methane recycling with other chemicals| especially with hydrogen and oxygen| to produce liquid fuels such as. methanol. Methanol synthesis from pure CO2 is investigated with various catalysts at moderate pressures (less than or equal to 30 bar) and temperatures (less than or equal to 300 degrees C). The catalysts show good methanol activity and selectivity. The remarkable finding is that the equilibrium yields per pass over the catalysts are already reached at temperatures above 250 degrees C. For a stoichiometric feed| at 225 degrees C| 20 bar and at a space velocity of 4500 h(-1)| a best methanol yield equal to 7.2 % is reported. The conversion of CO2 and CH4 to methanol is also studied in a silent electrical discharge at pressures of 1 to 4 bar and temperatures close to room temperature. Methanol yields are given for mixtures of CO2/H-2| CH4/O-2 and also for CH4/air mixtures. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 2391,1997,3,3,Greenhouse gas emissions: Recent trends in Estonia,It is widely accepted that the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere| due to human activities| will result in warming of the Earth's surface. The worldwide project within the Framework Convention on Climate Change was generated by the initiative of United Nations| to examine this effect and better understand how the GHG increase in the atmosphere might change the climate in the future| how ecosystems and societies in different regions of the world should adapt to these changes and what must policymakers do for the mitigation of that effect. Estonia is one of more than 150 countries which signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. in 1994| a new project| Estonian Country Study| was initiated within the U.S. Country Studies Program. The project will help to compile the GHG inventory for Estonia| investigate the impact of climate change on Estonian ecosystems| and the economy| as well as to formulate national strategies for Estonia to address global climate change. 4818,1997,3,3,Greenhouse-gas emissions from Amazonian hydroelectric reservoirs: the example of Brazil's Tucurui Dam as compared to fossil fuel alternatives,Hydroelectric dams in tropical forest areas emit carbon dioxide and methane. How these emissions and their impacts should be calculated| and how comparisons should be made with global warming contributions of alternative energy sources such as fossil fuels| can lead to sharp differences in conclusions on the relative advantages of these options. The example of Brazil's Tucurui Dam is examined to clarify these differences. The present paper ex-tends an earlier analysis to 100 years and explores the differences between these and comparable fossil fuel emissions. Factors considered here in calculating emissions for Tucurui Dam include the initial stock and distribution of carbon| decay rates and pathways (leading to carbon dioxide and methane)| and losses of power in transmission lines. Factors not considered include forest degradation on islands and reservoir shores| nitrous oxide sources in drawdown zones and transmission lines| additional methane emission pathways for release from standing trees| water passing through the turbines| etc. Construction-phase emissions are also not included; neither are emissions from deforestation by people displaced by and attracted to the project. A complete accounting of the alternative landscape is also lacking. Standardization of the level of reliability of the electricity supply is needed to compare hydroelectric and thermoelectric options. Types of emission calculations commonly used include the ultimate contribution to emissions| the annual balance of emissions in a given year| and emissions over a long time horizon (such as 100 years). The timing of emissions differs between hydroelectric and thermal generation| hydro producing a large pulse of carbon dioxide emissions in the first Sears after filling the reservoir while thermal produces a constant flux of gases in proportion to the power generated. The impacts of emissions are related to the atmospheric load (stocks) of the gases rather than to the emissions (flows)| and therefore last over a long time. According to the calculations in the present paper| the average carbon dioxide molecule in the atmospheric load contributed by Tucurui was present in the atmosphere 15 years earlier than the average molecule in the comparable load from fossil fuel generation This means that| considering a 100-year time horizon| a tonne of CO2 emitted by Tucurui has 15% more global warming impact than a tonne emitted by fossil fuel| assuming no discounting. If discounting is applied| then the relative impact of the hydroelectric option is increased. Time preference| either by discounting or by an alternative procedure| is a key factor affecting the attractiveness of hydroelectric power. At low annual discount rates (say 1-2%)| the attractiveness of Tucurui| although less than without discounting| is still 3-4 times better than fossil-fuel generation. If the discount rate reaches 15%| the situation is reversed| and fossil-fuel generation becomes more attractive from a global-warming perspective. Tucurui| with a power density (installed capacity/reservoir area) of 1.63 W m(-2) is better than both the 0.81 W m(-2) average for Brazilian Amazonia's 5500 km(2) of existing reservoirs and the 1 W m(-2) estimated by Brazil's electrical authorities as the mean for all planned hydroelectric development in the region. 4884,1997,3,4,High potential of novel zeolitic materials as catalysts for solving energy and environmental problems,Novel zeolitic catalysts have been intended to contribute syntheses of fuels and raw materials for petrochemical industry from alternative resources| and to solve environmental problems such as global warming and acid rain. While keeping an excellent pore structure of MFI zeolite| Al was successfully replaced by other transition metals by adopting the rapid crystallization method and various metallosilicate catalysts could be synthesized. H-Fe-silicate could convert light olefins totally by extraordinary high reaction rate| as high as 8 kg/l . h| into gasoline| which was composed of iso-mono-internal olefins. This gasoline fraction could be hydrogenated selectively into iso-paraffinic gasoline by using Pt catalyst supported on meso-porous silicate MCM-41 at a considerably low temperature around 150 degrees C. Ni was incorporated into the framework of SAPO-34| and this catalyst could convert methanol to ethylene with a very high selectivity of 90%. Pt-modified H-Ga-silicate and H-Zn-silicate could convert a wide range of saturated hydrocarbons into aromatics (mainly BTX) with high selectivities. Carbon dioxide was successfully converted into light olefins or gasoline using H-Fe- and H-Ga-silicate via methanol as an intermediate product. In the elimination reaction of a low concentration of NO under excess oxygen condition| various kinds of metallosilicates showed a stable activity. When the multi catalytic functions that matrix of metallosilicates| solid acid| catalytic function of metals containing in metallosilicate| kind of hydrocarbons to be added| were harmonized| NO could be effectively eliminated| and these facts could be explained by the heterogeneous reaction mechanism| Microscopic-Sequential Reaction Mechanism. H-Co-silicate exhibited much higher thermal stability than Co-ion-exchanged H-ZSM-5. The results of computer simulation to examine the thermal stability of framework| acidic properties and affinity with water supported the experimental results. 4720,1997,2,4,High temperature-induced spikelet sterility of japonica rice at flowering in relation to air temperature| humidity and wind velocity conditions,Although the impact of anticipated global warming on regional rice production merits intensive investigation| quantitative information regarding the effects of high temperatures on japonica rice is limited. The purpose of this study was to clarify the critical temperature for high temperature-induced spikelet sterility at the time of flowering in japonica rices and how it is affected by humidity and wind velocity. This research consisted of two experiments. In the first experiment| we examined the response of the varieties 'Ahihikari' and 'Koshihikari' to high temperatures at the time of flowering. Under a six-hour high-temperature treatment of panicles for eight days at flowering| the critical temperatures to induce 50% sterility were estimated to be about 36.5 degrees C for Akihikari and 38.5 degrees C for Koshihikari. The major cause of the cultivar difference was attributed to the difference in the number of pollen grains shed on stigma. In the second experiment| we examined the effects of humidity and wind velocity upon the high temperature-induced spikelet sterility of Akihikari. The fertility of spikelets flowered at 37.5 degrees C was highest at 45% relative humidity (R.H.) followed by that at 60% R.H.| and lowest at 80% R.H. Wind velocity above 0.85m s(-1) drastically decreased spikelet fertility at 37.5 degrees C| mainly through reduction of the pollen grain number shed on stigma. 4703,1997,5,4,High-resolution records of the late Paleocene thermal maximum and circum-Caribbean volcanism: Is there a causal link?,Two recently drilled Caribbean Sites contain expanded sedimentary records of the late Paleocene thermal maximum| a dramatic global warming event that occurred at ca. 55 Ma. The records document significant environmental changes| including deep-water oxygen deficiency and a mass extinction of deep-sea fauna| intertwined with evidence for a major episode of explosive volcanism. We postulate that this volcanism initiated a reordering of ocean circulation that resulted in rabid global warming and dramatic changes in the Earth's environment. 4693,1997,5,2,Holocene paleoprecipitation over the present-day Sahara desert: Implications for the future,The moderate Holocene global warming has induced a totally distinct climatic scenario over northern Africa. It is implied that the expected man-made warming will probably produce the same change in atmospheric circulation. 4778,1997,4,4,How dry is the tropical free troposphere? Implications for global warming theory,The humidity of the free troposphere is being increasingly scrutinized in climate research due to its central role in global warming theory through positive water vapor feedback. This feedback is the primary source of global warming in general circulation models (GCMs). Because the loss of infrared energy to space increases nonlinearly with decreases in relative humidity| the vast dry zones in the Tropics are of particular interest. These dry zones are nearly devoid of radiosonde stations| and most of those stations have| until recently| ignored the low humidity information from the sondes. This results in substantial uncertainty in GCM tuning and validation based on sonde data. While satellite infrared radiometers are now beginning to reveal some information about the aridity of the tropical free troposphere| the authors show that the latest microwave humidity sounder data suggests even drier conditions than have been previously reported. This underscores the importance of understanding how these low humidity levels are controlled in order to tune and validate GCMs| and to predict the magnitude of water vapor feedback and thus the magnitude of global warming. 4808,1997,2,3,Ice age initiation by an ocean-atmospheric circulation change in the Labrador Sea,The contrast between the large Greenland ice sheet and the nearly ice-free area of Canada to the west exemplifies the critical role of the moisture supply in glaciation. The trigger for new ice-sheet growth in Canada at the end of the last interglacial was probably an increase in the moisture supply rather than regional cooling. Triggering is attributed to stronger storm activity in the Labrador-Baffin area| caused by warming in the Labrador Sea and cooling in the Greenland-Norwegian Sea. The key to this temperature and circulation change may have been an increase in the hydrologic deficit of the Mediterranean Sea| A larger hydrologic deficit would have increased Mediterranean salinity and| consequently| the volume of Mediterranean Overflow Water. A resulting increased upwelling of Mediterranean Overflow Water from the lower thermocline off Scotland would have diverted additional warm North Atlantic Drift water westward via the Irminger Current| thus warming the Labrador Sea. The underlying cause of the hydrologic deficit increase was diminishing Milankovitch summer insolation in lower latitudes. This reduced African monsoon intensity and Nile River discharge. In modern times nearly all Nile discharge to the Mediterranean has been lost due to irrigation practices| culminating with the completion of the Aswan High Dam in 1968. The total increase in the hydrologic deficit due to Nile discharge loss is now 8%. In the next 70-100 years the Nile loss| added to larger evaporative losses due to CO2 warming| may increase the deficit as much as 22% above the inferred deficit at the beginning of the last glaciation thus further warming the Labrador Sea. Consequently| the triggering of major ice-sheet growth in Canada similar to 100 years from now is possible. 4801,1997,2,4,Impacts of air temperature variations on the bore rice phenology in Bangladesh: Implications for irrigation requirements,Air temperature significantly affects crop phenology. Numerous experiments have shown that prevailing air temperature determines the length of crop growth stages. Irrigation field requirements depend on the length of the crop growth stages. In the present study| a physically based parametric model| YIELD| has been applied to estimate the impacts of fluctuating air temperature (due to inter-annual climatic variability and global warming) on evapotranspiration water requirements and the length of growth stages of the irrigated bore rice in Bangladesh. The YIELD model is crop specific and crop-growth-stage specific which is a compromise between area-specific regression models and complex crop growth simulation models. The model was tuned to Bangladesh's environment to represent appropriate agro-ecological conditions including soil type| depth of ground water| field size| wind regime| and percolation losses. YIELD has been validated for the length of the growth stages| length of growing season| final yield| and evapotranspiration. A baseline estimate for the bore rice phenology has been established by running the model for 12 meteorological stations located in the major rice growing regions. Based on the analysis of the past Variations of air temperature and general circulation model (GCM) predictions| ten scenarios have been created to estimate the effects of these variations on the bore rice growth stages. These applications find that the planting date plays an important role in the bore rice phenology. This effect is most noticeable during initial growth stages. This study has found a non-linear relationship between decreasing air temperature and the length of the initial growth stage and a predominantly linear relationship with other growth stages. Model applications show that an increase in air temperature will provide longer and more stable thermal conditions for bore rice maturing stage. A 5% increase and a 4% decrease in seasonal total evapotranspiration will occur under each 1 degrees cooler and warmer air temperature conditions| respectively. A rise in evapotranspiration will cause higher demands for irrigation water. Such conditions will put pressure on the current irrigation infra-structural facilities in Bangladesh and result in reduction of bore yields. Furthermore| variations in the percent of time required for the completion of different growth stages under various air temperature conditions will demand a reorganization of irrigation schedules. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 4685,1997,2,4,Impacts of climate change on the oases of the Argentinean cordillera,Until the mid 1970s a negative trend in the river now values in the Argentinean provinces of San Juan and Mendoza (Cuyo region) was observed. The prevailing critical conditions and their economic and social impacts provide a basis for the characterization of an adverse climate change scenario for the region. The causes of the early 1970s scenario were assessed in this study in order to determine whether or not it could be related to global warming conditions. River flows are dependent on winter precipitation and on accumulated snow on the Andes cordillera. The lowest negative river flow Value observed can be explained by the behaviour of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and other macroclimatic parameters| such as sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. It was observed that the SOI is the parameter most strongly correlated with river flows. The highest correlation was found for the 2.4- and 4.8-yr frequencies and the low 43-yr frequency. Consequently| the low river flow values observed during the early 1970s are considered to be related to a low-frequency minimum of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| as well as to the behaviour of sea-surface temperature close to the coast of Chile. Both factors are associated with a minimum hemispheric temperature value. It is concluded that the 1960-70 drought in the eases of the cordillera was not Linked to a warm period. Therefore it is not appropriate| at least for the time being| to state that the eases will experience drought conditions under a global warming scenario with temperature increases of a few degrees. 2460,1997,4,3,Impacts of global climate change in a hydrologically vulnerable region: Challenges to South African hydrologists,South Africa is already hydrologically vulnerable and this is likely to be exacerbated by both nonpermanent ENSO-related as well as more permanently greenhouse-gas forced climate changes. Climate change effects are explained by way of the hydrological equation. This serves as a backdrop to a brief review| in a hydrological context| of projected perturbations to temperature| rainfall and potential evaporation| over southern Africa. Methodologies for simulating hydrological responses to climate change are assessed. These include more direct GCM-derived output| with some emphasis on recent advances in climatic downscaling| and the application of appropriate hydrological models for use in impact studies. Scale problems of importance to hydrologists are highlighted. Directions to which climate change-related hydrological research efforts should be expended in South Africa are summarized| before two case study simulations| one a general sensitivity study of hydrological responses to changes in rainfall over southern Africa| the other a more specific hydrological response study to the El Nino of the 1982-83 season| are presented. The article concludes with a discussion on whether or not water resources practitioners in South Africa should respond to climate change. 4862,1997,3,3,Improving energy efficiency - The cost-effective way to mitigate global warming,The growth in world population and in demand for energy worldwide| in particular in developing countries| is highlighted. The reflection on CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions| and the subsequent effects on the shape of climatic changes| are examined. The paper then assesses the energy intensity of economies from different parts of the world| rich and poor| and demonstrates that significant savings in energy consumption can be made. Finally| the scope and means of achieving the expected improvements in energy efficiency in the different sectors of the economy (commercial and residential| industry and transportation) are discussed in detail. Examples of the energy saving technologies are presented. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd 4826,1997,4,4,Increased coastal upwelling in the California Current System,State-space statistical models are applied to long environmental time series of monthly northward wind stress| sea surface temperature (SST)| salinity (SSS)| and sea level (SL) from the west coast of North America. The models use a combination of Kalman filtering and maximum likelihood methods| which estimate a nonlinear trend| a nonstationary and nondeterministic seasonal signal| and an autoregressive term| and effectively separate the seasonal signals from the long-term trends. The seasonal series are examined for behavior consistent with increasing coastal upwelling during the spring-summer upwelling ''season|'' presumably in response to a pattern of long-term global warming. Over a region of the California Current System (CCS) where coastal upwelling is a dominant process (32-40 degrees N)| wind stress| SST| SSS| and SL all show strong evidence of a systematic intensification of upwelling during April-July. Model trend series suggest a linear tendency for increasing equatorward stress (in agreement with the seasonal tendency)| but warmer SST (opposite the seasonal and the expectation of greater upwelling). The linear tendencies of the SST and stress trends are generally an order of magnitude greater than the seasonal tendencies. Thus the long-term trend in SST masks the cooling effect of increased seasonal upwelling| and the trend in equatorward stress suggests an artificially large seasonal increase in the observed spring and summer stress. A key to identifying these patterns has been the ability to separate the long- term nonlinear trend| using the state-space models| which mask the signal of increased upwelling in the observations. 2465,1997,4,3,Incremental costs of carbon storage in forestry| bioenergy and land-use,This paper presents a comprehensive and consistent methodology to account for the incremental costs and net changes in carbon stocks for different categories of forestry and biomass energy projects. The methodology allows consistent comparisons of the costs and quantities of carbon stored in different types of projects and/or national programs| facilitating the inclusion of forestry and biomass energy projects in a possible CO2 emission reduction regime. The framework presented includes guidelines for defining a reference case against which carbon-storage projects are compared| a carbon-storage accounting method based on simple analytic techniques for one-time terrestrial sinks| an endowment approach to incremental costing| and a discussion of local benefits and risk factors. 4748,1997,3,4,Influence of CO2| SO2 and NO in flue gas on microalgae productivity,The influence of CO2| SOx| NOx and soot dust on the productivity of microalgae was considered using Nannochloropsis salina and Phaeodactylum tricornutum. Microalgae are viewed as a possible means of combeting global warming. These microalgae can be easily cultivated in a high CO2 gas concentration of 15 vol%. SO2 gas itself does not influence the growth of microalgae. However| when the SO2 concentration is high| the pH of the medium decreases and the productivity of the microalgae is Lowered. The presence of NO does not influence the growth of microalgae. NO absorbed in the medium is changed to NO2- and utilized as a nitrogen source. As for Ni and V contained in soot dust| when the dissolved concentrations of these metals in the medium exceed more than 1 and 0.1 ppm| respectively| the microalgae productivity decreases| however| under actual conditions| their concentrations are normally lower than these values. The above results obtained in a small scale test using a simulated gas were confirmed in a field test using a raceway-type reactor with actual flue gas. 4889,1997,3,2,Influence of disposal depth on the size of CO2 droplets produced from a circular orifice,Disposal of liquid| anthropogenic CO2 in intermediate-depth ocean waters has been accepted as a means to reduce atmospheric concentrations of this greenhouse species and mitigate global warming. Since the CO2-seawater system is hydrodynamically unstable| liquid CO2 effluent in the ocean will break up into droplets. This paper discusses the influence of both the discharge orifice and properties of CO2 and seawater on the size of CO2 droplets produced. It is found that the droplet size is affected strongly by disposal depth. This suggests that determination of the behavior of CO2 discharged in the ocean must consider not only the orifice configuration| but also fluid properties at the disposal site. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4772,1997,4,4,Infrared radiative forcing of CFC substitutes and their atmospheric reaction products,We have employed the radiative forcing function recently computed by Pinnock et al. [1995]| in conjunction with infrared cross sections and vibrational frequencies calculated with ab initio quantum-mechanical methods| to estimate the instantaneous infrared radiative forcing terms F-tot of a number of CFC substitutes and their atmospheric reaction products. The computed quantities F-tot are compared with those obtained by Pinnock et al. [1995] employing experimental infrared spectra. In particular| Gaussian-92(TM) software has been utilized| at the MP2/6-31G** level of theory| to provide computational estimates of these quantities. Our results agree with the former| with a mean and a standard deviation of the difference of +3% and 15%| respectively. An error analysis is provided to assess the utility of the method. The capability of quantum-mechanical computational methods to explore structural trends in radiative and physicochemical properties is exploited for the molecular systems examined here. 2454,1997,2,4,Interaction between global climate change and the physiological responses of algae,The radiation climate as one essential factor influencing phytoplankton primary production will likely change in near future due to the increase of UV-A/B radiation and to stronger vertical mixing. The emission of dimethylsulphide (DMS) from dimethylsulphonium propionate (DMSP) influences the radiation climate due to its impact on cloud formation The diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum had a high acclimation ability to radiation stress resulting in a rapid recovery from stress induced losses in photosynthetic efficiency. In this case the primary production was not strongly impaired| and UV-B impaired photosynthesis by a mechanism different from that under excess PAR. The DMSP content of Prymnesium parvum was independent of irradiance and nitrogen supply. Total DMSP production of Prymnesium| however| was closely related to the age of the cells which was reduced under high irradiance. 4785,1997,3,4,Interactions amongst policies designed to resolve individual air issues,Six air issues are currently on science and policy agendas in Canada and elsewhere. These are climate change| stratospheric ozone depletion (increased UV-B radiation)| acidic deposition| SMOG (increased ground-level ozone)| suspended particulate matter| and hazardous air pollutants. Atmospheric scientists and decision makers have largely addressed these issues individually resulting in single-issue policies. However| it is now recognized that these issues are inter-related| and they may interact to cause negative as well as some beneficial effects| not only on the state of the atmosphere but also on societal and ecological systems. This paper illustrates through several examples the atmospheric dysfunction caused by the linkages among the six air issues. It also points to potentially conflicting policies arising from the single-issue approach| and it emphasizes the need for better integration of air issues. The linkages are summarized qualitatively in Table I. 2435,1997,5,4,Interpreting environmental and biological signals from the stable carbon isotope composition of fossilized organic and inorganic carbon,Stable carbon isotope studies on marine and terrestrial organic and inorganic carbon provide a means for detecting global climate change and for reconstructing past concentrations of atmospheric CO2. Comparison between the CO2 estimates reconstructed from carbon isotope studies for the past 150 Ma show good agreement with the predictions of a long-term carbon-cycle model based on mass-balance studies. Further| the CO2 estimates from these sources over the entire Phanerozoic show agreement with the fossil record of leaf stomatal density change-a feature inversely related to the concentration of atmospheric CO2. Isotopic studies on temporal sequences of fossilized terrestrial organic matter have contributed to palaeoecological studies on shifts in the dominance of plants with the C-4 photosynthetic pathway in ecosystems and historical changes in the metabolic processes of leaves of individual species. The long-term perspective offered by these studies provides critical information for assessing the responses of biological systems to future global environmental change. 2407,1997,4,4,Intertemporal equity| discounting| and economic efficiency in water policy evaluation,This paper addresses how the inclusion of global climate change may affect the discounting procedures used to evaluate water resources programs and projects. The primary document governing water resource planning and evaluation today is the Principles and Guidelines (P&G) adopted by the Water Resource Council in 1983. The issue is whether the P&G and related planning rules needs to be revised with regard to discounting and the choice of the discount rate in response to changing conditions associated with potential climate change and in light of the chapter on intertemporal equity| discounting| and economic efficiency from the report by the IPCC (IPCC| 1996c| ch. 4). Section 2 lays out the basic methodology of cost-benefit analysis and traces the development of issues pertaining to the choice of the discount rate. It is important to consider the discount rate issue in the context of the theoretical foundations of cost-benefit analysis and in particular| the Kaldor-Hicks compensation test. Section 3 sets out what the IPCC chapter on discounting (IPCC| 1996c| ch. 4) describes as the descriptive approach versus the prescriptive approach to choosing a discount rate. It examines the rationales which economists use to support the argument that the discount rate for evaluating public projects should be lower than the marginal rate of return on private investment. It also describes the challenges that using a lower rate poses for the economic evaluation of alternative public projects including water projects. Section 4 addresses the issue of intergenerational equity as it relates to global warming and to discounting and discusses the extent to which issues of intergenerational equity can be accounted for by lowering or raising the discount rate. Section 5 discusses the importance of dynamic flexibility. Section 6 briefly addresses the question of whether the water resources planning process should extend the multiobjective framework to incorporate a full multiobjective criterion function for inclusion in a revised P&G for the future. The final section of the paper sets forth the major conclusions to be drawn from this analysis and from the chapter on intergenerational equity| discounting| and economic efficiency of the IPCC report (IPCC| 1996a ch. 4) for the planning and evaluation procedures in the P&G. Because of the complexity of the outstanding issues regarding the discount rate and of the practical difficulty of applying procedures designed to capture all of these complexities a discounting rule is proposed that this writer believes will improve the overall efficiency of water resource decisions. Whichever procedure described in this paper is finally chosen| the current discounting rule will have to be revised. 4846,1997,5,4,Iodargyrite as an indicator of arid climatic conditions and its association with gold-bearing glacial tills of the Chibougamau - Chapais area| Quebec,The Ag halide mineral| iodargyrite| together with associated minerals chlorargyrite| bromargyrite| and ''embolite''| form a group of secondary minerals that| in terrigenous supergene environments worldwide| are exclusively confined to oxidized sulfide zones formed in arid and semi-arid climates. The presence of iodargyrite in gold-bearing glacial sediments of the Chibougamau - Chapais area of Quebec (first recorded occurrence of this mineral in Canada)| together with other indicators of an arid climate| provides cogent evidence of a past arid climate in this region. These indicators include: a) the existence of a deep water table during sulfide ore oxidation of Chibougamau copper deposits| b) the abundance of ''limonite dice'' in glacial tills| indicative of the pseudomorphic replacement of pyrite grains in bedrock formations under arid conditions| c) the abundance of spongy and corroded grains of gold typical of lateritic terranes| and d) the abundance of possibly desert-derived quartzofeldspathic sand formations. The period of aridity is conjectural at this time owing to lack of definitive dating media| but the nature and preservation of weathered profiles in the region strongly suggest a period of aridity in the Tertiary. Arid climatic conditions in this region may coincide with a known global warming period in late Eocene to middle Oligocene limes| when the Earth experienced some of its warmest temperatures. However| possible Pliocene arid conditions preceding onset of glacial events cannot be ruled out. 4849,1997,3,3,Issues in evaluating the long-term global impacts of transport policy,This paper provides an overview of issues involved in evaluating the long-term impacts of transport policy. It considers the effects of global warming| and the costs and benefits of action to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The overall case for such action rests on the choice of discount rate. The paper considers the relative effectiveness of taxes and regulations in controlling emissions from the transport sector| and contrasts direct action on road traffic with indirect action via policies to increase travel on public transport. After a brief mention of the issue of biodiversity| the paper concludes with some reflections on the political acceptability of different policies. 4863,1997,3,2,Japanese strategy for mitigating global warming,This paper illustrates first what the government of Japan intends to do with a few official pledges on mitigating global warming| such as the action plan and the famous idea of New Earth 21 program| toward long term stabilization of CO2 concentration in the air. In practice| however| there are a number of factors which may disturb realization of the targets envisaged in these plans. Limitation to advancement of further energy conservation| not only in industrial sectors but also in other sectors where individual consumers play key roles| is certainly serious. Another crucial factor is the nuclear power. Recent accident at the experimental FBR| Monju| has influenced the public acceptance of nuclear power very seriously| and the government is now at the stage of re-designing the future scenario of nuclear power| taking into account both the opinions in favor of nuclear and those of anti-nuclear. Nevertheless most of energy experts believe that nuclear power is safe and also economical enough to be maintained for the intermediate future at least in Japan so that strong policy measures are to be introduced to improve public acceptance of nuclear power. The second pan of this paper describes the future of so called ''new energy'' which the government of Japan is eager to develop and also the limits to development of these ''new energy''. The third pat is contributed to description of R&D of long term technological options and also difficulties in realizing these options. It is also worth noting that Japan| both government and industries| has much interest in CO2 removal from flue gas of power plants and its disposal. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4708,1997,3,3,Joint implementation - An effective strategy for combating global warming?,Many see the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) as the first in a series of international treaties and agreements designed to tackle the threat of global warming. Although it includes neither quantitative emissions reduction targets nor firm timetables| the convention articulates many key principles that should guide future action to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases. In particular| the FCCC acknowledges the historical role played by industrialised countries in the buildup of greenhouse gases and the need for them to take the lead in reducing emissions. Furthermore| it commits industrialise zed countries to provide developing countries with financial and technical assistance so that they can limit the growth of their emissions. Projections show the energy sectors of developing countries expanding rapidly over the next few decades to match the pace of industrialisation. This growth will bring with it large increases in emissions of greenhouse gases if nothing is done to dramatically increase the efficiency with which energy is used and to stimulate the use of renewable energy sources. The FCCC implicitly acknowledges these projections by allowing nations that have emissions reduction commitments to implement policies and measures jointly with other parties. This approach| known as join implementation (JI)| is one component of the strategy to combat climate change. It allows countries with higher emissions reduction costs to invest in cheaper measures elsewhere. As a reward for investing| these countries will receive partial credit for any emissions reduction that is achieved.
2442,1997,5,4,Lake Bonneville fluctuations and global climate change,Lake Bonneville| the largest late Pleistocene closed-basin lake in the North American Great Basin| fluctuated widely in response to changes in climate| The geochemistry and mineralogy of endogenic calcium carbonate deposited in deep water| and stratigraphic studies of shore-zone deposits| provide evidence of millennial-scale lake-level fluctuations that had amplitudes of about 50 m between 30 and 10 ka| Falling-lake events occurred at 21| 18.5-19| 17.5| 16-15.5| 14-13| and 10 ka (radiocarbon gears) synchronously with the terminations of Heinrich events H1 and H2 and other smaller scale iceberg-rafting events (a| b| c| and Younger Dryas) in the North Atlantic Ocean| The Lake Bonneville results thus support other climate records that suggest that late Pleistocene millennial-scale climate change was global in extent. The size and shape of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets| which determined the mean positions of storm tracks| may have been the primary control on late Pleistocene water budgets of Great Basin lakes. 2415,1997,4,4,Linking space-time scale in hydrological modelling with respect to global climate change .1. Models| model properties| and experimental design,The link between space and time scales in hydrological modelling| in most cases| is related to both the model structure and the implementation procedure| and this makes the hydrological predictions differ from one model to another. A monthly water balance (MWB) model and the snow accumulation-ablation (SAA) and soil moisture accounting (SMA) models of the US National Weather Service (US NWS) were examined and compared on a medium-sized mountainous catchment (the Mesochora catchment in Central Greece) under historical climate conditions. The analysis focused on the model time resolution| structure| input data| and calibration process. The best results were obtained from the US NWS models| which ran on smaller time increments (6 h step for the SAA model and daily step for the SMA model)| were explicitly parameterized| and for which the input data and parameter estimate procedures were more accurate. The main model evaluation criteria were the NTD efficiency measure for the 15 year study period and the comparison of the measured and predicted streamflow by the average month. The hydrological results for both models (SAA-SMA and MWB) showed small differences in the monthly runoff values and a greater interannual variability for the SAA-SMA models. The monthly soil moisture predictions by the models were different. The hydrological simulation under global climate change conditions is presented in the companion paper. 2416,1997,2,4,Linking space-time scale in hydrological modelling with respect to global climate change .2. Hydrological response for alternative climates,The variability in monthly and seasonal runoff and soil moisture has been analysed with respect to global climate change. The seasonal runoff and soil moisture for the Mesochora catchment in Central Greece were simulated using two hydrological models that were different in structure and time resolution. Variability was investigated via a monthly water balance (MWB) model which has a first-order memory and includes a rough estimation of snowmelt component| and via the coupling of the snow accumulation-ablation (SAA) conceptual model and the soil moisture accounting (SMA) conceptual model of the US National Weather Service (US NWS). The last two models operated at a 6 h and daily time step| respectively. The SMA model predicted greater interannual variability of runoff changes than did the MWB model| for all alternative climates. However| greater runoff increases in winter (by month and season) and greater decreases in summer (by month and season) were predicted by the MWB model. During the spring and autumn months the results were much more complicated. The variability of runoff changes with respect to temperature increase showed that the MWB model is less sensitive to large temperature increase than the SAA-SMA models for all precipitation climates. Whereas the SMA model soil moisture varied substantially for the alternative climates and a particular month (and season)| the MWB model soil moisture remained unaffected by any climate during winter. The soil moisture reduction predicted from the MWB model was greater than that predicted from the SMA model in late spring and summer. There was a slight reduction in the SMA model soil moisture with respect to temperature increase in winter| for all precipitation climates. During winter and August the MWB model soil moisture remained unaffected by any temperature increase| whereas during the other months the soil moisture reduction varied proportionally with respect to temperature increase for both models (SMA and MWB) and all precipitation climates. 2420,1997,2,3,Livestock management in dryland pastoral systems: Prospects and problems,Livestock production from the drylands is quite important both in terms of the volume of product produced and in respect to the number of people dependent on livestock for their livelihood. Drylands support the full spectrum of production systems from commercial ranching in Australia| western USA| Mexico| Argentina and southern Africa through various gradations of crop-livestock systems in Africa and Asia to traditional nomadic and semi-nomadic subsistence systems. Almost everywhere| livestock production is undergoing rapid change in response to political| social| economic| environmental and demographic pressures. In this paper| we will outline the characteristics of various production systems| review their prospects and identify the problems and challenges facing them. We will assess the likely impact of global climate change and of the new technologies and the new economic world order. Finally| we will try to predict what the 21st century will be like for the millions of people whose livelihoods depend on the grazing by domesticated livestock. 4874,1997,2,4,Long-term changes of seagrass beds in the Glenan Archipelago (South Brittany),Aerial photographs and in situ data of the Glenan archipelago permit the establishment of a cartography of its Zostera marina seagrass beds. Due to the exceptionally clear water| it was possible to distinguish submerged structures| such as rocks| sand dunes| maerl beds and seagrass meadows on the photographs. The distribution of Zostera meadows was incorporated into a geographical information database through scanning| and then compared with historical data. Ten aerial photographic surveys| made over a sixty-year period from 1932 to 1992 were available. The earliest of these surveys showed the seagrass beds to be in goad condition. Low cover in 1952 suggests that the Zostera meadows within the studied area were subject to severe destructions| presumably due to the ''wasting disease''| which caused a general breakdown of the North-Atlantic populations during the 1930s. During the 1970s| the distribution of Zostera beds increased; this was followed by a gradual decline during the 1980s and early 1990s. For the investigation of the environmental circumstances under which Zostera beds are fluctuating| the Glenan site is unique. This site being relatively remote from direct anthropogenic disturbances (light irradiance decline| sewage inputs)| the causes of such fluctuations during this 60-year period can be more easily identified. Z. marina is a boreal species naturally affected by climate changes and in particular by global warming| which was at a maximum during the 1940s and 1950s. Various human activities| such as scallop dredging| maerl exploitation| yachting and anchoring| should also be considered. However| these anthropogenic disturbances were of limited importance in comparison with the dramatic decline and recovery of the seagrass beds as a result of climate fluctuations. 4728,1997,2,4,Long-term variation in fire frequency and radial increment in pine from the middle taiga subzone of central Siberia,Dendrochronological methods were used to reconstruct the dynamics of fires and radial increment in pine from the region between the Kasa and Dubchesa rivers (59 degrees-61 degrees N). The data obtained were compared with long-term climatic changes in this region. It was shown that the fire frequency varied considerably in the history of the most flammable types of pine forests. Long-term variation in fire frequency negatively correlated with that in radial increment. Climatic changes favorable for pine growth also resulted in a decreased frequency of fires. The results of analysis suggest that fire frequency during global warming will be mainly determined by regional conditions (predominantly by moisture rather than temperature). 4688,1997,2,3,Maize growth: assessing the effects of global warming and CO2 fertilization with crop models,Projected future climate change scenarios derived from two General Circulation Models (GCMs): Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO)| and two crop models: Crop Estimation through Resources and Environmental Synthesis (CERES)| and Erosion/Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC)| were considered to assess the climate change impact on the yield and biomass of maize. Climate change scenarios included changes in temperature| precipitation and solar radiation from two GCMs interpolated to 1 degrees x1 degrees grid cells in the central Piedmont in North Carolina. Changes in mean monthly temperature and precipitation from the GCMs were used to adjust observed daily climate records from 1949-1988. There is convincing evidence that future temperature linked to global warming might be characterized by asymmetric change between daily daytime maxima and daily nighttime minima. Two hypotheses regarding how GCM temperature would alter observational record were examined. The first hypothesis assumed that daytime and nighttime warming occurs symmetrically| i.e.| maximum and minimum temperatures are raised equally. The second hypothesis assumed that nighttime minima change is three times greater than daytime maxima change and the change in mean diurnal temperature range is approximately equal to the change in daily mean temperature. For the equal day-night warming scenario| when only the effects of climate change (i.e.| changes in temperature| precipitation and solar radiation) were considered| simulations with CERES and EPIC indicated substantial losses in maize grain yield and total above ground biomass with both the GCM scenarios. For the asymmetric warming| the reduction in biomass and yield due to climate change was less than that obtained with symmetric warming. Simulated maize yield and biomass with CERES and EPIC increased when only effects due to CO2-fertilization were considered. The inclusion of CO2 fertilization effects with those due to climate change resulted in higher biomass and yield compared to values obtained with effects of climate change alone. When CERES was used with the GFDL scenario| and the effects of CO2 fertilization and the climate change were combined| no difference in simulated yield was found between the two hypotheses; only an 8% difference in aboveground biomass was found when the UKMO scenario was used. When EPIC was used| the differential day-night warming hypothesis resulted in 9-13% less reduction in biomass and yield than did the use of the equal day-night warming hypothesis. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 4710,1997,3,4,Massic heat capacities and Joule-Thomson coefficients of CH2FCF3 (R134a) at pressures up to 30 MPa and temperatures between about 253 K and 523 K,The massic heat capacity c(p) = (partial derivative h/partial derivative T)(p) of 1|2|2|2-tetrafluoroethane (refrigerant R134a) was measured at 18 temperatures from 253 K to 523 K at pressures between 40 kPa and 30 MPa. The Joule-Thomson coefficient mu(JT) = (partial derivative T/partial derivative p)(h) Of this substance was measured al six temperatures from 333 K to 423 K at pressures up to 20 MPa. The R134a probably has no ozone depletion potential. Its global warming potential is about one-tenth of that of the refrigerant R115 (C2F5Cl) for which it can be a substitute as a working fluid in energy technologies. (C) 1997 Academic Press Limited. 4737,1997,3,4,Measured and estimated methane and carbon dioxide emissions from sawdust waste in the Tennessee Valley under alternative management strategies,Wood waste is a potential source of methane production due to its high degradable organic carbon content and an on-site storage method that is conducive to development of anaerobic conditions. Future emissions from wood waste could be even higher if waste piles must be converted to landfills by soil capping in order to comply with national criteria for solid waste disposal. In order to estimate current and potential methane emission rates a set of field and laboratory measurements were undertaken. Gas samples for analysis of methane and CO2 were collected from the surface of sawdust piles using chambers placed on the pile surface| and at depths of 1.5| 3.0 and 4.6 m using a sampling probe. Two piles in each of the following age ranges were sampled: 0-1| 1-4| 3-5| and 5-8 years. In the laboratory study| sawdust samples from the 3.0 m depth were incubated under 20% CO2 in nitrogen at 32| 40 and 48 degrees C to simulate the temperature range and anaerobic conditions occurring in typical sawdust piles. Field measurements indicated that methane comprised 20% of the biogas generated from sawdust piles. Emissions from the pile surface averaged 1.68 mg m(-2) h(-1) compared to literature estimates from landfills on the order of 0.125-125|000 mg m(-2) h(-1) (Bogner and Scott| 1995)| with the low emission rates suggesting that a large percentage of the methane produced was either oxidized or otherwise consumed before reaching the pile surface. Emissions to the atmosphere estimated from annual sawdust production in the Tennessee Valley range from 15-44 metric tons per year incubation studies indicated highest methane generation at 32 degrees C with a reduction in emissions in excess of 70% when the temperature was increased to 48 degrees C. Estimates of methane production indicate that soil capping of disposed sawdust could increase methane production by 2-2.5 times over the biodegradation lifetime of the sawdust stored on-site. Assuming the global warming potential of methane is 21 times that of CO2| combustion of wood waste rather than on-site storage or capping would provide a CO2 offset of 1.2 or 3.8 tons| respectively| for each toll of sawdust burned. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 4743,1997,2,4,Meltwater pulses in the northern North Atlantic: retrodiction and forecast by numerical modelling,Changes in sea surface salinity| especially by sudden meltwater pulses| are the most effective process to modify the circulation in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. With ''Sensitivity and Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic'' (SCINNA)| a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model| several experiments addressing the possible effects of meltwater inputs of different intensities were carried out. The experiments used (a) the last glacial maximum (LGM) reconstruction based on oxygen isotopes data from sediment cores and (b) the modern conditions of the GIN seas for their initial states. Meltwater inputs from Europe as recorded during the last deglaciation succeeding the LGM change the circulation pattern drastically. These pulses can push the high-salinity inflow from the northeast Atlantic away from Europe over to the southern coast of Iceland| thus allowing the low-salinity meltwater to spread all over the GIN seas. As a result| the deepwater formation in this region can be turned off and the circulation system shifts from the normal cyclonal-antiestuarine into an anticyclonal-estuarine mode. On the contrary| meltwater pulses originating from Greenland due to global warming mainly intensify the East Greenland Current without altering the overall circulation and temperature/salinity patterns significantly because they chiefly enhance the salinity minimum off the Greenland coast. 4733,1997,3,4,Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice paddy fields as affected by nitrogen fertilisers and water management,Methane and N2O emissions affected by nitrogen fertilisers were measured simultaneously in rice paddy fields under intermittent irrigation in 1994. Ammonium sulphate and urea were applied at rates of 0 (control)| 100 and 300 kg N ha(-1). The results showed that CH4 emission| on the average| decreased by 42 and 60% in the ammonium sulphate treatments and 7 and 14% in the urea treatments at rates of 100 and 300 kg N ha(-1)| respectively| compared to the control. N2O emission increased significantly with the increase in the nitrogen application rate. N2O emission was higher from ammonium sulphate treatments than from the urea treatments at the same application rate. A trade-off effect between CH4 and N2O emission was clearly observed. The N2O flux was very small when the rice paddy plots were flooded| but peaked at the beginning of the disappearance of floodwater. In contrast| the CH4 flux peaked during flooding and was significantly depressed by mid-season aeration (MSA). The results suggest that it is important to evaluate the integrative effects of water management and fertiliser application for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in order to attenuate the greenhouse effect contributed by rice paddy fields. 4845,1997,2,3,Methane clathrate outgassing and anoxic expansion in southeast Asian deeps due to global warming,Numerous marine areas in SouthEast Asia are cold and deep enough to develop stable gas hydrates of greenhouse gases methane and carbon dioxide and of reducing agents such as hydrogen sulfide| In addition many of these deeps have low oxygen values below sill depths. Warming of such waters could: (1) destabilize existing gas hydrates (clathrates) flashing them into gas and (2) reduce the oxygen capacity of waters below the sill depth. Outgassing could increase the buoyancy| producing upwelling of potentially noxious deep waters into the photic zone and even to the surface where the greeenhouse gases would be added to the atmosphere. We plotted the depth (pressure) and temperatures of Southeast Southeast Asian deep basins on a clathrate phase diagram to determine their suceptibility to outgassing and upwelling using a creditable global warming scenario. In general| most of the Indonesian basins are too cold or too deep for any pre-existing clathrates to be destabilized by perceived global warming. However| the Sulu Basin of the Philippines and the Halmahera. Basin in Indonesian waters have sill depths in the pycnocline shoal enough and temperatures warm enough potentially to support outgassing and upwelling of basin waters| if water temperatures were raised. The presence of gas hydrates has not been demonstrated in these deeps. Although generally associated with high latitudes| clathrates have been identified in tropical waters off Central America. Accordingly| the proximity of the SouthEast Asian deeps to land and their low oxygen content suggest that tropical plant debris could accumulate and provide sufficient organic matter to generate methane and/or hydrogen sulfide clathrates. Local fisheries initially could be affected adversely by upwelling of anoxic or near anoxic waters into the photic zone. However| in the long term. the anoxic effects would dissipate and the nutrients brought up by the upwelling could increase primary productivity. A major adverse affect would be the introduction of methane into the atmosphere| as that gas has about 20 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide. 4696,1997,2,4,Methane emissions from wetlands in the zone of discontinuous permafrost: Fort Simpson| Northwest Territories| Canada,We examined the influence of water table position| temperature| vegetation| and CH4 storage on CH4 flux at 22 wetland sites located in the zone of discontinuous permafrost| near Fort Simpson| Northwest Territories. Sites ranged from frozen peat plateaux and palsas with collapse scars to fens and bogs and ponds. Mean summer CH4 emissions ranged from -1.3 to 255 mg m(-2) d(-1)| and the variation among sites was best explained by mean water table position (r(2) = 0.62| n = 19). Large CH4 fluxes (>30 mg m(-2) d(-1)) and high water tables occurred in ponds and graminoid sites| whereas small fluxes (<30 mg m(-2) d(-1)) and low water tables occur in shrub and woody sites. These relationships were upheld across several northern boreal regions| based on water table depth and broad ecological criteria. CH4 turnover times were generated by comparing surficial fluxes and storage within the saturated portion of the peat profile. Graminoid sites had CH4 turnover times from 1 to 4 days| whereas shrub or woody sites had longer turnover times| ranging from weeks to years. We estimated an overall flux of similar to 18 mg m(-2) d(-1) for the landscape around Fort Simpson. This CH4 flux may increase with the onset of global warming| owing to the fragility of permafrost| resulting in the formation of collapse scars with high CH4 emission rates. 4836,1997,4,3,Mitigation of global warming under sustainability constraints,This paper deals with sustainable energy technologies under restrictions on resources and environmental impact. We have developed a database to estimate life-cycle efficiencies and greenhouse gas emissions. Next| we define sustainability limitations on resource depletion and emissions. Based on these concepts| the present world energy system is judged to be unsustainable. Mitigation measures such as disposal of CO2 and solar power generation are evaluated utilizing the concept. We show how sustainability influences the cost-effectiveness of measures taken. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4714,1997,2,3,Modelling the short-term response of the Greenland ice-sheet to global warming,A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term response). The mass balance is modelled by the degree-day method and the energy-balance method. The lithosphere is considered to respond isostatically to a point load and the time evolution of the bedrock follows from a viscous asthenosphere. According to the IPCC-IS92a scenario (with constant aerosols after 1990) the Greenland ice-sheet is likely to cause a global sea level rise of 10.4 cm by 2100 AD. It is shown| however| that the result is sensitive to precise model formulations and that simplifications as used in the sea-level projection in the IPCC-96 report yield less accurate results. Our model results indicate that| On a time scale of a hundred years| including the dynamic response of the ice-sheet yields more mass loss than the fixed response in which changes in geometry are not incorporated. It appears to be important to consider sliding| as well as the fact that climate sensitivity increases for larger perturbations. Variations in predicted sea-level change on a time scale of hundred years depend mostly on the initial state of the ice-sheet. On a time scale of a few hundred years| however| the variability in the predicted melt is dominated by the variability in the climate scenarios. 4850,1997,3,3,Motor transport| greenhouse gases and economic instruments,Motorized transport is the generator of several forms of negative externality including the uncompensated emissions of greenhouse (global warming) gases. This paper looks at some of the underlying economic issues pertaining to policy-making designed to limit the extent of these externalities. It sets out the basic nature of the problem and outlines our knowledge of the link between the physical sciences involved and the relevant economic theory. It focuses| in particular| on the strict question of quasi-internalization in the context of a global externality. 4734,1997,4,2,Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas| greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change,A multi-fingerprint analysis is applied to the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. While a single fingerprint is optimal for the detection of climate change| further tests of the statistical consistency of the detected climate change signal with model predictions for different candidate forcing mechanisms require the simultaneous application of several fingerprints. Model-predicted climate change signals are derived from three anthropogenic global warming simulations for the period 1880 to 2049 and two simulations forced by estimated changes in solar radiation from 1700 to 1992. In the first global warming simulation| the forcing is by greenhouse gas only| while in the remaining two simulations the direct influence of sulfate aerosols is also included. From the climate change signals of the greenhouse gas only and the average of the two greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol simulations| two optimized fingerprint patterns are derived by weighting the model-predicted climate change patterns towards low-noise directions. The optimized fingerprint patterns are then applied as a filter to the observed near-surface temperature trend patterns| yielding several detection variables. The space-time structure of natural climate variability needed to determine the optimal fingerprint pattern and the resultant signal-to-noise ratio of the detection variable is estimated from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental data over the last 136 y. Applying the combined greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol fingerprint in the same way as the greenhouse gas only fingerprint in a previous work| the recent 30-y trends (1966-1995) of annual mean near surface temperature are again found to represent a significant climate change at the 97.5% confidence level. However| using both the greenhouse gas and the combined forcing fingerprints in a two-pattern analysis| a substantially better agreement between observations and the climate model prediction is found for the combined forcing simulation. Anticipating that the influence of the aerosol forcing is strongest for longer term temperature trends in summer| application of the detection and attribution test to the latest observed 50-y trend pattern of summer temperature yielded statistical consistency with the greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol simulation with respect to both the pattern and amplitude of the signal. In contrast| the observations are inconsistent with the greenhouse-gas only climate change signal at a 95% confidence level for all estimates of climate variability. The observed trend 1943-1992 is furthermore inconsistent with a hypothesized solar radiation change alone at an estimated 90% confidence level. Thus| in contrast to the single pattern analysis| the two pattern analysis is able to discriminate between different forcing hypotheses in the observed climate change signal. The results are subject to uncertainties associated with the forcing history| which is poorly known for the solar and aerosol forcing| the possible omission of other important forcings| and inevitable model errors in the computation of the response to the forcing. Further uncertainties in the estimated significance levels arise from the use of model internal variability simulations and relatively short instrumental observations (after subtraction of an estimated greenhouse gas signal) to estimate the natural climate variability. The resulting confidence limits accordingly vary for different estimates using different variability data. Despite these uncertainties| however| we consider our results sufficiently robust to have some confidence in our finding that the observed climate change is consistent with a combined greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing| but inconsistent with greenhouse gas or solar forcing alone. 4730,1997,3,4,Nitrous oxide emissions from fertilised grassland: A 2-year study of the effects of N fertiliser form and environmental conditions,The aim was to investigate the effects of different N fertilisers on nitrous oxide (N2O) flux from agricultural grassland| with a view to suggesting fertiliser practices least likely to cause substantial N2O emissions. and to assess the influence of soil and environmental factors on the emissions. Replicate plots on a clay loam grassland were fertilised with ammonium sulphate (AS)| urea (U)| calcium nitrate (CN)| ammonium nitrate (AN)| or cattle slurry supplemented with AN on three occasions in each of 2 years. Frequent measurements were made of N2O flux and soil and environmental variables. The loss of N2O-N as a percentage of N fertiliser applied was highest from the supplemented slurry (SS) treatment and U| and lowest from AS. The temporal pattern of losses was different for the different fertilisers and between years. Losses from U were lower than those from AN and CN in the spring| but higher in the summer. The high summer fluxes were associated with high water-filled pore space (WFPS) values. Fluxes also rose steeply with temperature where WFPS or mineral N values were nor limiting. Total annual loss was higher in the 2nd year| probably because of the rainfall pattern: the percentage losses were 2.2| 1.4| 1.2| 1.1 and 0.4 from SS| U| AN| CN and AS| respectively. Application of U in the spring and AN twice in the summer in the 2nd year gave an average emission factor of 0.8% - lower than from application of either individual fertiliser. We suggest that similar varied fertilisation practices| modified according to soil and crop type and climatic conditions| might be employed to minimise N2O emissions from agricultural land. 4731,1997,3,4,Nitrous oxide emissions from grassland and spring barley| following N fertiliser application with and without nitrification inhibitors,The aims of this study were to assess the effectiveness of the nitrification inhibitors dicyandiamide (DCD) and nitrapyrin on reducing emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) following application of NH4+ or NH4+-forming fertilisers to grassland and spring barley. DCD was applied to grassland with N fertiliser applications in April and August in 1992 and 1993| inhibiting N2O emissions by varying amounts depending on the fertiliser form and the time of application. Over periods of up to ? months following each application of DCD| emissions of N2O were reduced by 58-78% when applied with urea (U) and 41-65% when applied with ammonium sulphate (AS). Annual emissions (April to March) of N2O were reduced by up to 58% and 56% in 1992-1993 and 1993-1994| respectively. Applying DCD to ammonium nitrate (AN) fertilised grassland did not reduce emissions after the April 1993 fertilisation| but emissions following the August application were reduced. Nitrapyrin was only applied once| with the April fertiliser applications in 1992| reducing N2O emissions over the following 12 months by up to 40% when applied with U. When N fertiliser was applied in June without DCD| the DCD applied in April was still partly effective; N2O emissions were reduced 50%| 60% and 80% as effectively as the emissions following the April applications| for AS in 1993| U in 1992 and 1993| respectively. In 1992 the persistence of an inhibitory effect was greater for nitrapyrin than for DCD| increasing after the June fertiliser application as overall emissions from U increased. There was no apparent reduction in effectiveness following repeated applications of DCD over the 2 years. N2O emissions from spring barley| measured only in 1993| were lower than from grassland. DCD reduced emissions from applied U by 40% but there was no reduction with AN. The results demonstrate considerable scope for reducing emissions by applying nitrification inhibitors with NH4+ or NH4+-forming fertilisers; this is especially so for crops such as intensively managed grass where there are several applications of fertiliser nitrogen per season| as the effect. of inhibitors applied in April persists until after a second fertiliser application in June. 4725,1997,3,4,No-till farming: The way of the future for a sustainable dryland agriculture,Most dryland fanning systems depend an tillage to grow crops. There is overwhelming evidence that repeated tillage is destroying the soil resource base and causing adverse environmental impacts. Tillage degrades the fertility of soils| causes air and water pollution| intensifies drought stress| destroys wildlife habitat| wastes fuel energy| and contributes to global warming. Consequently| most tillage-based systems in a dryland environment are not sustainable in the long-term. Today| dryland farmers are expected to produce food in ever greater quantities. This is becoming more difficult to do in view of declining soil quality| most of which is caused by soil tillage. It is becoming well documented scientifically that continuous no-till is the most effective| and practical approach for restoring and improving soil quality which is vital for sustained food production and a healthy environment. With this way of farming crop| residues or other organic amendments are retained on the soil surface and sowing/fertilizing is done with minimal soil disturbance. Research and farmers' experience indicate that with continuous no-till soil organic matter increases| soil structure improves| soil erosion is controlled| and in time crop yields increase substantially from what they were under tillage management| due to improved water relations and nutrient availability. These changes help to promote a cleaner and healthier environment and a more sustainable agriculture. A major obstacle that farmers often face with change to continuous no-till is overcoming yield-limiting factors during the transition years| that is| the first years of no-till following a history of intensive conventional tillage. These factors are often poorly understood and may be biologically-driven. Some of the problems involve residue management and increased weed and disease infestations. Farmer experience seems to indicate that many problems during the transition are temporary and become less important as the no-till system matures and equilibrates. The judicious use of crop rotations| cover crops and same soil disturbance may help reduce agronomic risks during the transition years. Farmers switching to continuous no-till must often seek new knowledge and develop new skills and techniques in order to achieve success with this new and different way of farming. Answers to their questions are urgently needed to provide strategies far promoting no-till as a way to enhance agricultural sustainability for future generations. 4722,1997,2,2,Nonmarket valuation and the estimation of damages from global warming,This paper is concerned with nonmarket valuation in the context of global warming. First| concerning the impact of global warming: what are the prospects for the inclusion of nonmarket values in estimates of the damages of warming? The second question relates to the role of the Principles and Guidelines as the supporting document for water resource projects. Are tools for nonmarket valuation| as found in the Principles and Guidelines satisfactory for water resource project evaluation with a changing climate? The potential effects of climate change are so numerous and subtle that it would be prohibitively costly to measure them all. Thus a comprehensive program for including nonmarket damages as part of the costs of global warming seems ill-advised. Where specific concerns arise| researchers may learn from small scale studies. Many of the damages of global warming are diminished by the ability of humans to adapt at small costs| especially the nonuse component of nonmarket values. When the question concerns minor water resource projects| the gains from including extra effects induced by global warming seem to be small compared with the costs. The Principles and Guidelines does not reflect current practices in benefit estimation. However| it is not clear that this is a serious problem| because most practitioners continue to revise their understanding of valuation methods. If the Principles and Guidelines were to be revised| it would make sense to provide more current guidelines for all of the behavioral models and contingent valuation. Revisions of the Principles and Guidelines should not do anything special for anthropocentrically induced climate change. 4761,1997,3,3,Nuclear energy conversion systems for arresting global warming,Presently the global warming by CO2 emission from fossil fuel burning is becoming a serious issue. Especially| coal is the worse fossil fuel| because it emits the largest amount of CO2 per unit amount of heat generation. There seem to be two ways of reducing substantial CO2 emission rate of coal; they are| reforming coal to synthesis fuel with less CO2 emission and removing CO2 from hue gas of coal fired power station after burning coal. Present paper proposes two nuclear heat application systems which reform coal to methanol and four systems which produce chemical products or gasoline with CO2 collected from Rue gas of coal fired power stations| as future options for reducing CO2 emission from coal. Advantage and disadvantage of the proposed systems are discussed. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4758,1997,3,4,OH reaction kinetics and atmospheric impact of 1-bromopropane,The temperature-dependent rate constant for the reaction of the OH radical with 1-bromopropane has been measured using the discharge flow technique with laser-induced fluorescence detection of the OH radicals. Rate constants were measured as a function of temperature between T = 271 K and T = 363 K. The temperature dependence is well described by a simple Arrhenius expression| k(T) = A exp[-E/(RT)]. We find that A = (5.75 +/- 0.9) x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and E/R = 504 +/- 50 K for the OH reaction rate with CH3CH2CH2Br. The reaction rate at T = 277 K is 9.3 x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| which implies that the atmospheric lifetime for CH3CH2CH2Br is approximately 15 days using the scaling method of Prather and Spivakovsky. In addition| the quantitative infrared spectrum for 1-bromopropane has been obtained using a Fourier transform spectrometer. Together with the atmospheric lifetime estimate| this spectrum implies global warming potentials of 1.0| 0.3| and 0.1 for integration time horizons of 20| 100| and 500 years| respectively. We have calculated the ozone depletion potential (ODP) for bromopropane based on the kinetic results using our 2-D model and using the standard semi-empirical approach. The semiempirical calculation of the ODP| using the 15 day lifetime and the model calculated vertical profile of 1-bromopropane| gives 0.0019. However| the 2-D model result is 0.027 using a fixed mixing ratio boundary condition for 1-bromopropane. It is likely that the semiempirical method is inappropriate for species with lifetimes as short as 15 days. 4842,1997,2,3,On modification of global warming by sulfate aerosols,There is increasing evidence that the response of climate to increasing greenhouse gases may be modified by accompanying increases in sulfate aerosols. In this study| the patterns of response in the surface climatology of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model forced by increases in carbon dioxide alone is compared with those obtained by increasing carbon dioxide and aerosol forcing. The simulations are run from early industrial times using the estimated historical forcing and continued to the end of the twenty-first century assuming a nonintervention emissions scenario for greenhouse gases and aerosols. The comparison is made for the period 2030-2050 when the aerosol forcing is a maximum. In winter| the cooling due to aerosols merely tends to reduce the response to carbon dioxide| whereas in summer| it weakens the monsoon circulations and reverses some of the changes in the hydrological cycle on increasing carbon dioxide. This response is in some respects similar to that found in simulations with changed orbital parameters| as between today and the middle Holocene. The hydrological response in the palaeosimulations is supported by palaeoclimatic reconstructions. The results of changes in aerosol concentrations of the magnitude projected in the scenarios would have a major effect on regional climate| especially over Europe and Southeast Asia. 2385,1997,4,4,Opposing southern ocean climate patterns as revealed by trends in regional sea ice coverage,The 16.8 year sea ice record (November 1978 to August 1995) derived from satellite passive microwave data shows evidence of contrasting climate patterns in the Southern Ocean as indicated by persistent opposing trends in regional sea ice coverage. Southern Ocean regions adjoining the south Atlantic| south Indian and southwest Pacific Oceans show increasing trends in sea ice coverage| particularly during non-winter months| while regions adjoining the southeast Pacific Ocean show decreasing trends in sea ice coverage| particularly during summer months. The data are compiled from three successive passive microwave sensors from which two separate time-series are analyzed. The first includes the data originally released by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) which have not been significantly adjusted to account for differences in the successive sensors| while the second includes data recently released by NSIDC which have been rigorously adjusted (Cavalieri et al.| 1997) to account for differences between sensors. Although the significance of many of the increasing trends detected in the original time-series decrease in the reanalyzed time-series| the overall pattern of contrasting trends remains evident. These trends have important implications for the southern hemisphere heat budget and surface albedo as well as for marine ecosystems associated with various sea ice habitats. Other evidence of contrasting climate patterns with respect to southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation is explored. Due to the relatively short sea ice record| it still remains to be seen whether these trends are natural decadal variation or indicative of global climate change. However| the persistent opposition in Southern Ocean regional ice coverage is noteworthy and may well be studied using global circulation models in order to better define potential positive and negative feedbacks for global change scenarios. 4806,1997,3,3,Optimal reductions in CO2 emissions,Current optimizing climate-economy models use CO2 uptake functions that greatly underestimate both peak atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the time horizon of elevated CO2. As a result these models underestimate potential global warming damages| Here| a more realistic| but practical| carbon cycle parameterization is developed that can be incorporated within an optimizing climate-economy model framework| This method is utilized in conjunction with the DICE model (Nordhaus| 1994) to estimate optimal reductions in CO2 emissions. The results are shown to be extremely sensitive to the pure rate of time preference| rho. For rho=3% (Nordhaus' preferred value)| our model predicts an optimal CO2 emission reduction of 13% by the year 2045| as compared to 11% in the original DICE model| But| for rho=0% the optimal emissions reduction rises to 79% in the year 2045 and to 97% by the year 2200| We argue that energy policy should be guided by the rho=0% results for both economic and ethical reasons| A steady-state analysis performed using the DICE model supports the argument that large fractional reductions in CO2 emissions should be undertaken. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 2417,1997,4,3,Optimization of a non-linear dynamical system for global climate change,We regard the global climate system as a controlled dynamic system| with controls corresponding to economic activities causing emissions of greenhouse gases. Previous optimization studies for climate change have used descriptions of the environmental system which are found to be too unrepresentative of what is known in the scientific community| In this paper an approach is applied which tries to include a more sophisticated model of the environmental system. The resulting continuous dynamic control problem is solved by the application of a set of non-linear optimization techniques to find optimal response strategies to maximize the discounted sum of future consumption while adhering to certain environmental constraints. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 4891,1997,3,3,Optimization of the fertilization by nutrients of the ocean| taking fixation by phytoplankton into account,Fertilization of the ocean with nutrients such as nitrate and phosphate is one of the countermeasures against the global warming problem. In the present paper| we evaluated the effective ratio of the nutrients sprinkling into the ocean to the nutrients assimilation by phytoplankton. When the nutrients equivalent to the 1/500 of the annual accumulated amount of CO2 in the atmosphere were sprinkled within the circle of 7.1 - 100 km radius by a ship| less than 0.01 % of the nutrient was found to be transferred to the deep ocean without assimilation. The rest remained in surface ocean| most of which was found to be incorporated in the phytoplankton within one year. We also evaluated the energy balance of transportation of the fertilizers by ship to that taken up by the fertilization in ocean| The energy evaluation indicated that the amount of CO2 produced from the transportation process was about 0.23 % of the amount that is expected to be taken up into the ocean from the atmosphere. Furthermore| we estimated the energy balance of fertilization with activated sludge instead of fertilizer. It was found that fertilization by activated sludge containing a great deal of water needed a large amount of energy for the transportation by ship. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4848,1997,2,4,Organochlorine contamination of the Canadian Arctic| and speculation on future trends,Emission of organochlorine chemicals in urban| agricultural and industrial regions of the world has resulted in a substantial influx to the Canadian Arctic. Long-range atmospheric transport and what has been referred to as 'global distillation' transport many chemicals from warm source areas to cold| polar regions. Organochlorines are detected in Arctic air| water| and snow| with substantial accumulations in animals| marine mammals| and humans. This has led to concern regarding health effects to native people who consume traditional foods. Speculations on future trends of organochlorines in the Arctic is presented and related to global warming effects and the physical chemistry of the compounds of interest. It is conceivable that high levels of certain contaminants in the Arctic environment may persist for decades despite recent reductions in global emissions. 4830,1997,4,4,Permafrost zonation and climate change in the northern hemisphere: Results from transient general circulation models,Numerous studies have demonstrated that both global patterns and local details of permafrost distribution are highly responsive to climatic fluctuations| at several temporal and spatial scales. Permafrost currently underlies about one fourth of the land area of the northern hemisphere| and many qualitative predictions have been made for a severe reduction of this area in response to global warming. A map of permafrost distribution compiled using the 'frost index'| a dimensionless number that can be related to the zonal arrangement of permafrost| shows very good correspondence with a recently published empirical map. The frost index was used in conjunction with three transient general circulation models to compile maps of permafrost zonation for conditions in the mid-21st century. Although regional patterns and local details differ substantially between the three scenarios| all result in reductions in the area occupied by each permafrost zone. Localized expansions of the area underlain by permafrost are apparent from two of the scenarios. Reductions in the areal extent of equilibrium permafrost predicted from two of the three transient models are much less than those indicated by runs using 2 x CO models. 4838,1997,2,2,Polar snow cover changes and global warming,Many general circulation models suggest that current precipitation amounts in polar latitudes will increase under double CO2 scenarios. Even though temperatures in such high-latitude regions should also increase under a doubling of CO2| as long as those temperatures remain below freezing| the increased precipitation should accumulate as snow. A study of both current and double CO2 temperature and precipitation data for all land areas poleward of 60 degrees latitude using three different general circulation models suggests possible changes in snow accumulation due to increasing CO2. Increased snow accumulation will occur in the Antarctic whereas a small decrease in snow depth is to be expected in the Northern Hemisphere. Total snow accumulation for all land areas poleward of latitude 60 degrees is found to increase under a double CO2 scenario.
4711,1997,2,3,Possible change in climate parameters with zero net radiative forcing,There has been much debate over the possibility that radiative cooling due to anthropogenic aerosols may substantially offset global warming from the enhanced greenhouse effect of raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. It is accepted that regional climates may alter if the net local forcing is non-zero. However| recent studies have alluded to the possibility of climate change even when the net radiative forcing from aerosols and carbon dioxide is very small. We present calculations demonstrating that even when the net radiative forcing of climate from simultaneous aerosol and CO2 perturbations at all locations is zero| heating rates within the atmosphere and surface radiation characteristics may still be substantially altered. Given the effect of radiative heating on atmospheric motions| and the dependence of biological systems on insolation| we conclude that the effects of possible climate change even when the mean radiative forcing at all locations is unchanged need to be quantified. Although an important quantity| the radiative forcing of climate should not be used as the sole indicator of possible climate change. 4858,1997,3,4,Possible options for mitigating methane emission from rice cultivation,Studies focused on mitigating CH4 emission from rice paddy fields are summarized and the possibilities and limits that the options might be applied to world's rice cultivation are discussed. The mitigation options are water management| soil amendments| organic matter management| different tillage| rotation| and cultivar selection. Altering water management| in particular promoting midseason aeration by short-term drainage| is one of the most promising strategies| although these practices may be limited to the rice paddy fields where the irrigation system is well prepared. Improving organic matter management by promoting aerobic degradation through composting or incorporating into soil during off-season drained period is another most promising candidate. There are several formidable obstacles to adopt the mitigation options into local rice farming| including limited applicability to different types of rice fields| increasing cost and labor| negative effects on rice yield and soil fertility| and time requirement for practical application. Further studies to verify the mitigation options should focus on the feasibility for local farmers. 4771,1997,2,3,Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America,The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America| but diverse aquatic ecosystems| such as playas| pothole lakes| ox-bow lakes| springs| groundwater aquifers| intermittent and ephemeral streams| as well as large rivers and wetlands| are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification| deoxygenation| decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation| waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need| for example| to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists| hydrologists| climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research. (C) 1997 by John Wiley gi Sons| Ltd. 4790,1997,2,3,Potential effects of climatic change on radiological doses from disposal of Canadian nuclear fuel waste,The environmental assessment of deep geologic disposal of Canadian nuclear fuel waste considers many processes that could affect radionuclide transport to humans over thousands of years. Climatic change is an important feature that will occur over these long times. Glaciation will likely occur within the next 100|000 years over much of Canada| and its impact on radiological doses has been assessed previously. In the present study| we investigate the potential effect of shortterm climatic change| usually associated with global warming caused by increases in atmospheric trace gases. We study the main biosphere transport pathways causing a radiological dose to humans from I-129| which is the most important radionuclide in disposal of Canadian used nuclear fuel. Irrigation of a garden with contaminated well water is the main pathway and it can be affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. A cold| wet climate decreases the need for irrigation| and this decreases the radiological dose. A drastic climatic change| such as an increase in temperature from 10 to 20 degrees C and decrease in precipitation from 0.3 to 0.2 m during the growing season| is estimated to increase the dose by a factor of four. This is a relatively small change compared to the range of doses that arise from the variability and uncertainty in many of the parameters used in the environmental assessment models. Therefore| it is likely that the results of probabilistic dose assessment models can include the consequences of short-term climatic change. 2389,1997,4,4,Predicting high-risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Nino southern oscillation,The interannual variation in malaria cases in Colombia between 1960 and 1992 shows a close association with a periodic climatic phenomenon known as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with other years| malaria cases increased by 17.3% during a Nino year and by 35.1% in the post-Nino year. The annual total number of malaria cases is also strongly correlated (r = 0.62| P < 0.001) with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific| a principal parameter of ENSO. The strong relation between malaria and ENSO in Colombia can be used to predict high and low-risk years for malaria with sufficient time to mobilize resources to reduce the impact of epidemics. In view of the current El Nino conditions| we anticipate an increase in malaria cases in Colombia in 1998. Further studies to elucidate the mechanisms which underlie the association are required. As Colombia has a wide range of climatic conditions| regional studies relating climate and vector ecology to malaria incidence may further improve an ENDO-based early warning system. Predicting malaria risk associated with ENSO and related climate variables may also serve as a short-term analogue for predicting longer-term effects posed by global climate change. 4854,1997,2,4,Preliminary climatology of southern Africa extreme weather: 1973-1992,Preliminary climatological statistics of extreme weather events over the southern Africa region are established through analysis of daily weather maps of the South African Weather Bureau for a twenty year period| 1973-1992. Influences of global warming and inter-annual variability imposed by El Nino events| amongst others| are sought. Notable trends include a decrease in the frequency of station days with rainfall > 70 mm and an increase in station days with temperature > 38 degrees C. Correlations offer some insights to extreme climate associations. Lows over the land in the west and over the sea to the east display consistent interannual variability| despite opposing rainfall regimes. Agreement in extreme temperature statistics in all regions suggest that drought is widespread over southern Africa. Rainfall in the north is negatively related to lows over the sea to the south. A potential mechanism underlying the inverse relationship between midlatitude and sub-tropical storminess is the development of a vorticity dipole associated with the westerly jet stream. This is investigated in an El Nino-influenced case study. 4795,1997,4,4,Pressure effect of sound speed in the deep ocean,Recently| ocean acoustic tomography (OAT) has been used to investigate the phenomenon of global warming and for wide area oceanic observation. This research requires one to correctly determine the sound speed from the sea surface to the bathyal zone. The calculation of sound speed is primarily based on the equation for the speed of sound determined by Del Grosso and Chen and Millero. There are many discussions with respect to the differences between the equation for sound speed by Chen and Millero and that by Del Grosso. We measured data of temperature| salinity| pressure and sound speed from the sea surface to the bathyal zone in detail using the deep submergence vehicle| ''SHINKAI 6500|'' from the Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC). From our measurements| the constant term of the gradient of sound speed from the measured data agrees with that of the equation derived by Chen and Millero| while the first and the second terms of the gradient of sound speed from the measured data agree with that of the equation by Del Grosso. 2433,1997,4,4,Problems associated with homogeneity testing in climate variation studies: A case study of temperature in the northern Great Plains| USA,Global climate change is a controversial issue facing researchers and climatologists today. In order to obtain the most reliable results when studying climate change| the data being analysed must be as homogeneous as possible. A homogeneous time series is one in which trends and variations are caused only by effects of weather and macroclimate. The concept of homogeneity has been addressed by some researchers| but only by testing 'average' time series such as the means and the annuals. This paper utilizes a homogeneity test developed by Alexandersson and applies it to mean monthly maximum| minimum| and mean temperature data from 22 stations in the northern Great Plains| USA. One of these| Valentine| is a first-order station and is used as the reference station. When Valentine was adjusted for a possible inhomogeneity due to its move| it was found that Valentine's adjustments had a distinct seasonal pattern. After testing the other stations against Valentine| it was found that the position of a significant discontinuity in a station's monthly mean or annual series was not always the same in a corresponding monthly maximum and minimum series. In addition| a seasonal pattern similar to that of Valentine was found for each station's adjustment values. (C) 1997 the Royal Meteorological Society. 4864,1997,3,3,Progress on binding CO2 in mineral substrates,Based on current estimates of reserves| coal could satisfy even a very much increased world energy demand for centuries| if only the emission of CO2 into the atmosphere could be curtailed. Here we present a method of CO2 disposal that is based on combining CO2 chemically with abundant raw materials to form stable carbonate minerals. A major advantage of this method is that the resulting waste product is thermodynamically stable and environmentally neutral. It is therefore possible to store large quantities permanently with minimal environmental impact and without the danger of an accidental release of CO2 which has proven fatal in quantities far smaller than contemplated here. The raw materials to bind CO2 exist in nature in large quantities in ultramafic rocks. They are readily accessible and far exceed what would be required to bind all CO2 that could possibly be generated by burning the entire fossil fuel reserves. In this paper we outline a specific process that we are currently investigating. Our initial rough cost estimate of about 3 cent/kWh is encouraging. The availability of a CO2 fixation technology would serve as insurance in case global warming| or the perception of global warming. would cause severe restrictions on CO2 emissions. If the increased energy demand of a growing world population is to be satisfied from coal| the implementation of such a technology would be unavoidable. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 2453,1997,5,4,Quaternary sea level variations in the Pacific-Indian ocean gateways: Response and impact,The Indonesian Maritime Island| also called the Maritime Continent| is situated in a unique geographic setting relating to regional and global climate change. Tropical monsoons| between Asia and Australia| exert a strong influence on this area. Pacific and Indian Ocean currents pass through the island corridors and rise to the Sunda-Sahul epicontinental platforms bringing nutrients that support reef development. This system may be disturbed during glacial low sea level. However| the deep passage Indian-Pacific Ocean gateways remained open during glaciations allowing deep ocean currents to continue flowing between the emerged Sunda and Sahul platforms. Thus| the coastal plain of the large lowland area| and the large| shallow and stable Sunda-Sahul platforms are sensitive to eustatic sea level changes. Changes in basin volume| in the long term| may be the primary control on global sea level but in the relatively short term global climate change could be the most significant cause of sea level oscillations. Based on a study of uplifted coral reefs| an Upper Pleistocene sea level curve has been constructed for the Indonesian region. This curve had been corrected by using Oxygen Isotope data from ODP Hole 677. Copyright (C) 1996 INQUA/Elsevier Science Ltd 4773,1997,4,3,Radiative forcing calculations for CH3Cl and CH3Br,Methyl chloride| CH3Cl| and methyl bromide| CH3Br| are particularly important in the global atmosphere as major natural sources of chlorine and bromine to the stratosphere. The production of these gases is dominated by natural sources| but smaller| important anthropogenic sources| such as agricultural fumigation and/or biomass burning| also exist. As absorbers of infrared radiation these gases are of interest for their potential effect on the tropospheric energy balance as well as for chemical interactions. In this study we estimate the radiative forcing and Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) of CH3Cl and CH3Br. Our calculations use an infrared radiative transfer model based on the correlated k-distribution algorithm for band absorption. Radiative forcing values of 0.0047 W/m(2) per part per billion by volume (ppbv) for CH3Cl in the troposphere and 0.0049 W/m(2) per ppbv for CH3Br in the troposphere were obtained. On a per molecule basis the radiative forcing values are about 2% of the forcing of CFC II and about 270 times the forcing of CO2. GWPs for these gases are about 8 for CH3Cl and about 4 for CH3Br (100 year time integration| CO2 = 1). These results indicate that while CH3Cl and CH3Br have direct GWPs similar to that of CH4| the current emission rates are too low to contribute meaningfully to atmospheric greenhouse heating effects. 4740,1997,3,3,Radiative forcing of climate change by CFC-11 and possible CFC-replacements,The infrared absorption cross sections of CFC-11 and 16 other halogenated compounds have been measured. These spectra were used in detailed line-by-line calculations to derive radiative forcing values. The radiative forcing values for 14 of these gases have not| to our knowledge| been previously reported in the literature. The accuracy of a computationally inexpensive narrowband scheme| which included the effect of clouds and stratospheric adjustment| was investigated. Global warming potentials are presented where atmospheric lifetimes are available. In light of the substantial disagreement in values for the forcing due to CFC-11 reported in the literature and its use as a standard to which other halogenated gases are often compared| we examined the sensitivity of CFC-11 forcing to a number of assumptions. We find that the uncertainties in the calculated value of the radiative forcing caused by neglect of the temperature and pressure dependence of the IR absorption spectrum are much smaller than those resulting from uncertainties in the absolute absorption cross sections or the vertical profile of CFC-11. Our best estimate is 0.285 W m(-2) ppbv(-1)| which is 30% higher than the value adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and is believed to be accurate to within about 10%. For the other gases represented here the lack of detailed knowledge of the likely vertical and horizontal distribution probably represents the most significant uncertainty in evaluating their radiative forcing. 4718,1997,5,4,Radiocarbon dating of a recent high-latitude peat profile: Stor Amyran| northern Sweden,The value of both high-precision (HP) and AMS C-14 determinations in the fine-resolution dating of recent peat at Stor Amyran| near Umea| northern Sweden has been explored. A detailed chronology of accumulation| based an C-14| an occurrence of the Askja AD 1875 tephra and Am-241 measurements has been derived for the last 700 years. This shows significant changes in the mass balance of the peat profile| with minimum rates of net carbon sequestration overlapping with the period of minimum spring and summer temperature documented by published tree-ring evidence. The paper presents a methodology for calculating empirically past changes in the rate of net carbon sequestration in boreal peatlands and for exploring the effects of climatic variations (and possible future global warming) on these rates. 2429,1997,5,4,Rapid climate change in the North Atlantic during the Younger Dryas recorded by deep-sea corals,Research on global climate change has increasingly focused on rapid (century-scale and decadal) changes. One such climate shift| the Younger Dryas cooling event(1)| took place during the last deglaciation| from 13|000 to 11|700 years BP. Climate records from Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediment cores show high-frequency fluctuations implying significant (>5 degrees C) shifts in temperature at this time| taking place within 50-100 years (ref. 2)| The origin of the Younger Dryas has recently been attributed to a reduction or cessation of deep-water production in the North Atlantic and a concurrent lessening of the heat flux from Low latitudes(3|4)| The role of intermediate waters (1|000-2|000 m depth) is less certain| however| because climate proxies for this ocean reservoir are rare and ambiguous. Here we report on the use of a new climate archive| deep-sea corals from Orphan knoll (1|600 m depth) in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. The oxygen isotope ratios in the coral skeletons (accurately dated by the Th-230/U-234 chronometric method) change markedly coincident with the initiation of the Younger Dryas| suggesting that there were profound changes in intermediate-water circulation at this time. 4807,1997,4,4,Recent abnormal changes in wintertime atmospheric response to tropical SST forcing,An ensemble of climate experiments has been performed using a T42 GCM version of the Japan Meteorological Agency global model to examine abnormal changes in the wintertime extratropical atmospheric response to anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in recent decades. Three independent 39-year integrations for the period 1955-1993 are forced by the same observed SST boundary condition. Although the tropical Pacific SST anomalies since the late 1980s indicate El Nine-like patterns| the Pacific/North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern is found to be hardly simulated| which stands in sharp contrast with that for the period 1977-1983. The SSTs in the vicinity of the maritime continent (the Indonesian region)| including the tropical Indian. Ocean| are very high during the period 1987-1993 and associated model atmosphere does undergo pronounced zonal heating over almost the entire tropics. Such tropical heating does not necessarily favor the barotropic Rossby wave dispersion into the extratropics emanating out of convective forcing since weakened Walker circulation is not capable of producing localized strong divergence anomalies| hence inhibiting generation of apparent vorticity sources in the subtropics. If the prevailing tendency of high SSTs in the vicinity of the maritime continent persists from now on| it is anticipated that a good correlation between EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and PNA| which has been pointed out by previous numerous studies| becomes insignificant. This anomalous feature may be viewed as a signature of global warming. 2393,1997,2,4,Recent advances in studies of anthracnose of Stylosanthes. V. Advances in research on Stylosanthes anthracnose epidemiology in Australia,Epidemiological research on anthracnose disease of style in Australia has improved understanding of the disease cycle through quantifying interaction between host| pathogen and the environment. Research has focused on: pathogenic and genetic variation in the Australian population of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides in comparison with diversity at the centre of origin for this pathogen in South America; environmental influences on anthracnose development and survival as a means to understand better the effectiveness of host resistance; and epidemiological consequences of strategies for the deployment of host-resistance genes. Through a close collaboration with breeding and cultivar development work| this research has helped to characterise and utilise better resistance for the management of anthracnose. Recently| a novel approach| using multivariate analysis| has been used to classify isolates into races taking into account the variation between pathogenicity assays. Both pathogenic and selection-neutral molecular markers have been used to reveal a limited range of variation in the Australian pathogen population compared with that at the centre of origin. This finding has important quarantine implications. The influence of weather factors in the dispersal| infection and survival of C. gloeosporioides has been established to characterise better the forms of genetic resistance which are prone to environmental variation. Evolutionary consequences of style genotype mixtures have been established to show that changes in race frequency can occur rapidly in the pathogen population| perhaps following changes in the composition of the host population due to outcrossing. As a model system| style anthracnose disease is being used to study the impact of predicted global climate change on plant diseases and the application of a 3-dimensional visual simulation model| 'virtual plant'| to understand better the dynamics of disease and pest development within a plant canopy. An important feature of this research has been the effective national and international collaboration. With new opportunities for international research| this collaboration is expected to grow in strength and stature to help manage this important disease. 4776,1997,3,4,Recent advances in the catalytic properties of metastable materials,New catalysts and electrocatalysts which are amorphous alloys themselves or prepared from amorphous and other metastable alloys are reviewed in this paper. The most important characteristic of metastable materials including amorphous and nanocrystalline alloys from the chemical point of view is the homogeneous single phase nature consisting of a variety of elements| whose concentrations sometimes exceed the solubility limits at equilibrium. For the enhancement of the activity various treatments are carried out before catalytic reaction| such as oxidation-reduction and selective dissolution of alloy constituents. For example| after immersion in HF| amorphous Cu-Zr alloys show higher activity than amorphous Cu-Ti alloys for dehydrogenation of 2-propanol and hydration of acrylonitrile. This is due to dissolution of smaller amounts of titanium from Cu-Ti alloys than dissolution of zirconium from Cu-Zr alloys in HF| since the corrosion resistance of titanium in HF is higher than zirconium. The catalysts prepared from some amorphous nickel alloys are most effective for methanation of CO2 at atmospheric pressure. Amorphous nickel-refractory metal alloys are the best cathode materials for electrolytic hydrogen evolution. The catalyst for CO2 methanation and the electrode for electrolytic hydrogen evolution are used for building a CO2 recycling plant to avoid global warming and to supply abundant energy. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. 2418,1997,2,4,Reconstruction and analysis of historical changes in carbon storage in arctic tundra,Surface air temperature in arctic regions has increased since pre-industrial times| raising concerns that warmer and possibly drier conditions have increased soil decomposition rates| thereby stimulating the release to the atmosphere of the large stores of carbon (C) in arctic soils. We used a model (MEL-GEM| Marine Biological Laboratory General Ecosystem Model) of ecosystem C and nitrogen (N) dynamics to predict and analyze historical (1829-1990) changes in C storage in a N-limited| tussock-tundra ecosystem near Toolik Lake on the North Slope of Alaska. The model simulates stand-level photosynthesis and N uptake by plants| allocation of C and N to foliage| stems| and fine roots| respiration in these tissues| turnover of biomass through litterfall| and decomposition of litter and soil organic matter. We first calibrated the model by deriving a single parameter set that closely simulated the response of tussock tundra to decade-long experimental manipulations of nutrients| temperature| light| and atmospheric CO2. The calibrated model predicts that historical increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 have increased total ecosystem C storage. Higher temperatures increased soil and plant respiration| but those losses of C were overcompensated by increased photosynthesis resulting from redistribution of N from soil to plants. This redistribution of N was due to increased net mineralization and uptake of N. Increases in atmospheric CO| also increased photosynthesis| but consequent increases in C storage were constrained by limits on increases in the C:N ratio of vegetation. In contrast| hypothesized historical decreases in soil moisture substantially decreased simulated total ecosystem C storage as a result of large increases in soil respiration. With decreased soil moisture| increases in photosynthesis associated with redistribution of N from soil to plants only partially compensated for respiratory C losses| as plant uptake of N could not keep pace with increased N mineralization rates. Consequent losses of N from the ecosystem contributed to the declines in C storage under drier conditions. Based on the combined effects of reconstructed historical changes in atmospheric CO2| mean growing-season temperature| and two alternative soil moisture scenarios| the model predicts a -5.4 to +2.3% change in ecosystem C from 1829 to 1990. These estimates are consistent with field evidence that historically recent changes in C storage of tussock tundra have been relatively small. However| the model also predicts that relatively large transient losses of ecosystem C (50-180 g.m(-2).yr(-1)) may frequently have occurred since the late 1800s| with one of the largest simulated C losses of the 20th century occurring from 1988 to 1990 (3-yr average = 133 g C.m(-2).yr(-1)). These simulated losses were similar to losses measured in tussock tundra at Toolik Lake from 1983 to 1990 (e.g.| 1990 losses = 156 g Cm-2.yr(-1)) but nonetheless suggest that these measured losses may be transitory in nature. 2414,1997,2,4,Regional and temporal variation in net primary production and nitrogen mineralization in grasslands,Spatial variability that occurs at large scales has long been used by ecologists as a tool to examine the controls over ecosystem structure and function. Correlations of control variables such as climatic factors and response variables such as vegetation and soil carbon storage across broad regions have played a crucial role in predicting the response of ecosystems to global climate change. Despite the importance of these large-scale space-for-time substitutions| there are substantial limitations. One of these limitations is that many of the possible control factors covary with one another| and only some of the important control factors actually exist in large-scale databases. Thus| the true proximal controls may be difficult to identify. A second limitation is that models of spatial variability may not be appropriately applied to temporal variability. In this paper| we utilize a new approach to determine the extent to which N availability may constrain aboveground primary productivity in the Central Grassland region of the U.S. The strong relationship between average annual primary production and average annual precipitation found in spatial patterns in ecosystems globally has often been interpreted as evidence of a fundamental water limitation. However| temporal variation in annual aboveground net primary production (ANPP) indicates that other factors constrain production. We generated a spatial and temporal database for annual aboveground net primary production and annual net N mineralization by linking a database of input variables (precipitation| temperature| and soils) with predictive models. We generated independent data sets of aboveground net primary production and net N mineralization by using regression models to predict aboveground net primary production| and the Century model to simulate net N mineralization. Our analyses indicate that net primary production and net N mineralization both increase with mean annual precipitation; thus| it is not possible to separate the extent to which ANPP is controlled by water or N availability. Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) increased with increasing precipitation across the region. Aboveground net primary production decreased with increasing temperature across the region| while N mineralization increased slightly| leading to decreasing (NUE) with increasing temperature. At high precipitation levels| aboveground net primary production increased and N mineralization decreased slightly with increasing soil fineness. Nitrogen use efficiency generally increased with increasing pools of soil organic matter| likely because in grasslands| the proportion of recalcitrant organic matter increases with the total organic matter pools. A comparison of interannual variation in net N mineralization with average spatial variation indicated a high degree of inertia in the response of N availability to precipitation levels. Our simulation results as well as field results of Lauenroth and Sala (1992) raise important questions about the applicability of space-for-time substitutions when dealing with ecosystem function. The structure of the systems appears to provide important constraints on the temporal variability that are not evident in an analysis of spatial variability. 4794,1997,2,2,Regional climate change scenarios under global warming in Kazakhstan,The aim of this paper is to report on the development of regional climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan as the result of increasing of CO2 concentration in the global atmosphere. These scenarios are used in the assessment of climate change impacts on the agricultural| forest and water resources of Kazakhstan. Climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan to assess both long-term (2 x CO2 in 2075) and short-term (2000| 2010 and 2030) impacts were prepared. The climate conditions under increasing CO2 concentration were estimated from three General Circulation Models (GCM) outputs: the model of the Canadian Climate Center Model (CCCM)| the model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the 1% transient version of the GFDL model (GFDL-T). The near-term climate scenarios were obtained using the probabilistic forecast model (PFM) to the year 2010 and the results of GFDL-T for years 2000 and 2030. A baseline scenario representing the current climate conditions based on observations from 1951 to 1980 was developed. The assessment of climate change in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of 100-years observations is given too. As a result of comparisons of the current climate (based on observed climate) the 1 x CO2 output from GCMs showed that the GFDL model best matches the observed climate. The GFDL model suggests that the minimum increase in temperature is expected in winter| when most of the territory is expected to have temperatures 2.3-4.5 degrees C higher. The maximum (4.3 to 8.2 degrees C) is expected to be in spring. CCCM scenario estimates an extreme warming above 11 degrees C in spring months. GFDL-T outputs provide an 'intermediate' scenario. 2437,1997,4,4,Research and measurement program at the ANTARES AMS facility,The ANTARES AMS facility is fully operational and supports a research program in environmental science| with emphasis on global climate change and nuclear safeguards. A measurement program for external projects involving Australian and overseas institutions is also carried out| mainly in Quaternary science studies. 2450,1997,2,4,Response of ovule development and post-pollen production processes in male-sterile tomatoes to chronic| sub-acute high temperature stress,In order to determine the effects of high temperature on ovule development and reproductive processes subsequent to pollen production| nine day/night temperature combinations were imposed over a 9 month period as four separate experiments| each with three treatments| including one common treatment. In order to eliminate known effects of high temperatures on pollen production and stylar position| high temperature treatments were applied only to male-sterile tomatoes (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.). Pollen was obtained from male-fertile plants given optimal growth conditions. This allowed comparison of mean daily temperatures from 25-29 degrees C; day/night temperature differentials (DIFs) of 2| 6| and 10 degrees C; day temperatures of 28| 30 and 32 degrees C at night temperatures of 22| 24| and 26 degrees C; and night temperatures of 22| 24 and 26 degrees C at day temperatures of 28| 30 and 32 degrees C. Average weight per fruit and flower number did not demonstrate a consistent pattern of response to high temperature. Other reproductive characteristics (% fruitset| total number and weight of fruit per plant| and seediness index) decreased as mean daily temperature rose from 25 degrees C to 26 degrees C and from 28 degrees C to 29 degrees C. The primary parameter affecting these variables was mean daily temperature| with day temperature having a secondary role. thus| in determining reproductive responses of tomato to temperatures within this range| day temperature| night temperature and DIFs do not need to be considered independently of their effect on mean daily temperature. If this relationship holds true in other species| and for pre-pollen production processes as well| modelling the effects of projected climate change should be simplified. 4756,1997,3,3,Review of controls of NOx,The oxidation state and high temperature flames within a glass furnace promote the evolution of high concentrations of the oxides of nitrogen (NOx). These are toxic gases that adversely affect the eyes and lungs| contribute to acid rain and global warming and are precursors to ground level ozone formation and photochemical fog. European Council Directive 96/61/EC of September 1996 (IPPC) requires the glass industry (amongst others) to define Best Available Techniques for controlling the main polluting substances. The present paper categorises the various NOx reduction techniques in terms of effectiveness| costs and environmental impact. 4786,1997,4,4,Role of spatial and temporal variations in the computation of radiative forcing and GWP,We investigate the role of spatial and temporal resolution for estimation of radiative forcing due to SF6 and a range of halocarbons as well as CO2. A broadband model| which is used in the calculations| is described. Some comparative calculations have also been performed with a|line-by-line model. The most detailed horizontal resolution used is 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees in latitude and longitude. A variety of resolutions up to global averages are investigated. The effects of variations on diurnal| monthly| and seasonal scales are also studied. Spatial and temporal variation in the radiative forcing due to variations in temperature| humidity| and cloudiness has been taken into account on the basis of observed data. Inaccuracies due to temporal variations are small in all cases (up to about 1%). Deviations in forcings due to spatial averaging are also small (less than 1%) as long as latitudinal variations are resolved| but significant inaccuracies are introduced when global averaged conditions are assumed. The forcing due to CO2 responds somewhat differently to spatial averaging compared to SF6 and the halocarbons| so global warming potential (GWP) values for SF6 and halocarbons with CO2 as a reference gas are less accurate. Resolution of latitudinal variations in input parameters is shown to increase the accuracy of the GWP values for SF6 and the halocarbons. The choice of tropopause level| where radiative forcing is determined| is shown to be crucial| with differences up to 10% in the global average radiative forcing for different assumptions. 2426,1997,2,4,Sea-level rise impact on coastal areas of Estonia,Due to long coastline (3|794 km in total) and extensive low-lying coastal areas| global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of valuable natural ecosystems (both| marine and terrestrial) containing rare plant communities often rich in species| but also suitable breeding places for birds will be in danger. Most sandy beaches high in recreative value will disappear. However| isostatic land uplift and location of coastal settlements at a distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk. Four case study areas characterizing all the shore types of Estonia have been selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Preliminary results and estimates of vulnerability to 1.0 m sea-level rise by 2075 for two case study areas - Hiiumaa| West-Estonian Archipelago and Parnu-Ikla| south-western coast of the mainland are presented in this paper. 4760,1997,4,4,Self-stabilization of the biosphere under global change: a tutorial geophysiological approach,A 2-dimensional extension of the simple Lovelock-Watson model for geosphere-biosphere feedback is introduced and discussed. Our enriched version also takes into account various pertinent physical| biological| and civilisatory processes like lateral heat transport| species competition| mutation| germination| and habitat fragmentation. The model is used as a caricature of the Earth System| which allows potential response mechanisms of the biosphere to environmental stress (as generated| e.g.| by global warming or anthropogenic land-cover change) to be investigated qualitatively. Based on a cellular automaton representation of the system| extensive calculations are performed. They reveal a number of remarkable and| partially| counter-intuitive phenomena: our model biosphere is able to control almost perfectly the geophysical conditions for its own existence. If the environmental stress exceeds certain thresholds| however| life breaks down on the artificial planet via a first-order phase transition| i.e.| in a non-reversible way. There is a close connection between self-stabilizing capacity| biodiversity and geometry of habitat fragmentation. It turns out| in particular| that unrestricted Darwinian competition| which reduces the number of co-existing species| is the best guarantee for survival of the artificial ecosphere as a whole. 2432,1997,2,4,Sensitivity of flood events to global climate change,The sensitivity of Acheloos river hood events at the outfall of the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central Greece was analysed under various scenarios of global climate change. The climate change pattern was simulated through a set of hypothetical and monthly GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) scenarios of temperature increase coupled with precipitation changes. The daily outflow of the catchment| which is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff| was simulated by the coupling of snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models of the US National Weather Service River Forecast System| Two threshold levels were used to define a flood day-the double and triple long-term mean daily streamflow-and the flood parameters (occurrences| duration| magnitude| etc.) for these cases were determined. Despite the complicated response of flood events to temperature increase and threshold| both hypothetical and monthly GISS representations of climate change resulted in more and longer flood events for climates with increased precipitation. All climates yielded larger flood volumes and greater mean values of flood peaks with respect to precipitation increase. The lower threshold resulted in more and longer flood occurrences| as well as smaller flood volumes and peaks than those of the upper one. The combination of higher and frequent flood events could lead to greater risks of inundation and possible damage to structures. Furthermore| the winter swelling of the streamflow could increase erasion of the river bed and banks and hence modify the river profile. 4828,1997,2,3,Sensitivity of malaria| schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming,Global assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenically-induced climate change on vector-borne diseases suggests an increase in extent of the geographical areas susceptible to transmission of malarial Plasmodium parasites| dengue Flavivirus and Schistosoma worms. The transmission potential of the three associated vector-borne diseases studied is highly sensitive to climate changes on the periphery of the currently endemic areas and at higher altitudes within such areas. Our findings vis-a-vis the present endemic areas indicate that the increase in the epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12-27% and 31-47%| respectively| while in contrast| schistosomiasis transmission potential may be expected to exhibit a 11-17% decrease. 4793,1997,2,4,Sensitivity of the Russian agriculture to changes in climate| CO2 and tropospheric ozone concentrations and soil fertility,Russian agriculture sensitivity to changes in climate| soil and atmosphere chemistry were analyzed. Calculated data are presented on crop productivity of grain crops and grasses (C-3) under arid and humid scenarios of climate taking account of one-| two-| three and four-factor natural environment impacts. All four factors under studies (climatic parameters| CO2 and tropospheric ozone concentrations| soil degradation extent) greatly impact agriculture productivity. The effect of interaction between all considered factors on agroecosystem productivity is studied. it is established that a simple additive scheme for explaining the complex effect of some factors can be much violated. In this case| not only variations in the mean crop yield levels but also variations in the degree of crop stability have been assessed in some regions| that may be more important for determining the social-economic consequences. It turned out that the recurrence of critically very low yields in steppe regions may increase two fold as a result of global warming. 4709,1997,3,3,Sensitivity study of optimal CO2 emission paths using a simplified structural integrated assessment model (SIAM),A structurally highly simplified globally integrated coupled climate-economic costs model SIAM (Structural Integrated Assessment Model) is used to compute optimal paths of global CO2 emissions that minimize the net sum of climate damage and mitigation costs. The model is used to study the sensitivity of the computed optimal emission paths with respect to various critical input assumptions. The climate module is represented by a linearized impulse-response model calibrated against a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model and a three-dimensional global carbon-cycle model. The cost terms are represented by strongly simplified expressions designed for maximal transparency with respect to sensitive input assumptions. These include the discount rates for mitigation and damage costs| the inertia of the socio-economic system| and the dependence of climate damages on the change in temperature and the rate of change of temperature. Different assumptions regarding these parameters are believed to be the cause of the marked divergences of existing cost-benefit analyses based on more sophisticated economic models. The long memory of the climate system implies that very long time horizons of several hundred years need to be considered to optimize CO2 emissions on time scales relevant for a policy of sustainable development. Cost-benefit analyses over shorter time scales of a century or two can lead to dangerous underestimates of the long term climatic impact of increasing greenhouse-gas emissions. To avert a major long term global warming| CO2 emissions need to be reduced ultimately to very low levels. However| the draw-down can be realized as a gradual transition process over many decades and even centuries. This should nevertheless not be interpreted as providing a time cushion for inaction: the transition becomes more costly the longer the necessary mitigation policies are delayed. However| the long time horizon provides adequate flexibility for later adjustments. Short term energy conservation alone is insufficient and can be viewed only as a useful measure in support of the necessary long term transition to carbon-free energy technologies. For standard climate damage cost expressions| optimal emission paths limiting long term global warming to acceptable sustainable development levels are recovered only if climate damage costs are not significantly discounted. Discounting of climate damages at normal economic rates yields emission paths that are only weakly reduced relative to business as usual scenarios| resulting in high global warming levels that are incompatible with the generally accepted requirements of sustainable development. The solutions are nevertheless logically consistent with the underlying discounting assumption| namely that the occurrence of global warming damages in the distant future as a result of present human activities is of negligible concern today. It follows that a commitment to long term sustainable development| if it in fact exists| should be expressed by an intertemporal relation for the value of the earth's future climate which does not degrade significantly over the time horizon relevant for climate change. Since the future climate is a common assett whose value cannot be determined on the market| the appropriate discount rate for future climate damages should be determined by an assessment of the public willingness to pay today for the mitigation of future climate change. To translate our general conclusions into quantitative cost estimates required by decision makers| the present exploratory study needs to be extended using more detailed disaggregated climate damage and mitigation cast estimates and more realistic socioeconomic models| including multi-actor interactions| inherent variability| the role of uncertainty and adaptive control strategies. 4689,1997,2,3,Simulated changes in the Asian summer monsoon at times of increased atmospheric CO2,Possible changes in the Asian summer monsoon due to increased atmospheric CO2 are investigated by an MRI global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The summer (June-August) monsoon rainfall in India increases significantly with global warming. On the other hand| the monsoon wind shear index| defined as the difference between 850 hPa and 200 hPa zonal winds over the northern Indian Ocean| decreases. At 850 hPa| the westerly wind shifts northward and intensifies from the Sahel to northwest of India| but the monsoon westerly over the Arabian Sea weakens. It is found that increased moisture content in the warmer air leads to larger moisture flux convergence| contributing to the increased rainfall. Therefore| the monsoon wind shear index is not a good indicator for identifying any change of monsoon accompanying global warming. In contrast to the increased rainfall in India| change in rainfall is little over China where soil moisture becomes drier at times of increased CO2. It is also noted that the northern Eurasian continent becomes wetter in the increased-CO2 climate. The magnitude of the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall becomes larger in the CO2 experiment than in the control experiment| particularly in the later stage of the experiment after CO2 doubling. However it should be noted that the interdecadal variation of this interannual variability is also large both in the control and the CO2 experiments. 2390,1997,2,4,Simulated sea level change alters anatomy| physiology| growth| and reproduction of red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle L.),Tropical coastal forests - mangroves - will be one of the first ecosystems to be affected by altered sea levels accompanying global climate change. Responses of mangrove forests to changing sea levels depend on reactions of individual plants| yet such responses have not been addressed experimentally. We report data from a long-term greenhouse study that assessed physiological and individual growth responses of the dominant neotropical mangrove| Rhizophora mangle| to levels of inundation expected to occur in the Caribbean within 50-100 years. In this study| we grew potted plants in tanks with simulated semidiurnal (twice daily) high tides that approximated current conditions (MW plants)| a 16-cm increase in sea level (LW plants)| and a 16-cm decrease in sea level (HW plants). The experiment lasted 2% years| beginning with mangrove seedlings and terminating after plants began to reproduce. Environmental (air temperature| relative humidity| photosynthetically active radiation) and edaphic conditions (pH| redox| soil sulfide) approximated field conditions in Belize| the source locale for the seedlings. HW plants were shorter and narrower| and produced fewer branches and leaves| responses correlated with the development of acid-sulfide soils in their pots. LW plants initially grew more rapidly than MW plants. However| the growth of LW plants slowed dramatically once they reached the sapling stage| and by the end of the experiment| MW plants were 10-20% larger in all measured growth parameters. Plants did not exhibit differences in allometric growth as a function of inundation. Anatomical characteristics of leaves did not differ among treatments. Both foliar C:N and root porosity decreased from LW through MW to HW. Relative to LW and HW plants| MW plants had 1-7% fewer stomata/mm(2)| 6-21% greater maximum photosynthetic rates| 3-23% greater absolute relative growth rates (RGRs)| and a 30% higher RCR for a given increase in net assimilation rate. Reduced growth of R. mangle under realistic conditions approximating future inundation depths likely will temper projected increased growth of this species under concomitant increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO2. 4888,1997,3,2,Simultaneous production of electricity| steam| and CO2 from small gas-fired cogeneration plants for enhanced oil recovery,In recent years| global warming has been blamed on the so called ''greenhouse effect'' and has caught the attention of scientists and politicians throughout the world. There is an increasing concern surrounding the emission levels of greenhouse gases| particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). This paper is an extension of earlier work((1)) to show how cogeneration concepts can be used to reduce production costs by simultaneously producing electricity| CO2 and steam for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) applications. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4686,1997,2,4,Soil carbon cycling at a black spruce (Picea mariana) forest stand in Saskatchewan| Canada,Stored amounts and flow rates of soil carbon were measured simultaneously with soil environmental conditions (temperature and moisture content) periodically during the growing seasons from 1994 to 1995 at two plots (plot A was a dry soil condition| and plot B was a wet condition) in a black spruce (Picea mariana) forest stand in the Prince Albert area of Saskatchewan| Canada. Seasonal trends in litterfall rate and accumulation of the A(0) layer were not observed| while the total and mineral soil respiration rates changed seasonally with soil temperature. There was no significant relationship between soil moisture content and-any how rates or accumulations of soil carbon. Soil respiration and loss of litter might have been very low during the winter (November to early May) because of the frozen soil. The annual soil carbon cycling was analyzed by a compartment model| based on the data obtained in this study. The relative decomposition rate of the A(0) layer and humus in the mineral soil were estimated at 0.0632 yr(-1) and 0.0045 for plot A and 0.0284 yr(-1) and 0.0020 for plot B| respectively. These values indicate that the soil carbon cycling in plot A was about twice as fast as that in plot B. The slower cycling in plot B may be caused by the lower soil temperature and humid soil conditions| since the groundwater level is higher in plot B. The soil in both plots were accumulating carbon| i.e.| 0.13 t C ha(-1) yr(-1) for plot A and 0.03 for plot B. The soil carbon cycling in the boreal forest stand was slower because of the lower soil temperature than that reported in the cool- and warm-temperate forests. Soil carbon cycling in the boreal forest predominantly occurred at the surface of the mineral soil| suggesting that the decomposition response of soil organic matter in the boreal forest will be enhanced compared to other climate zone forests because of the large predicted temperature increase in the boreal zone under global warming. 4803,1997,3,3,Soil management and nitrous oxide emissions from cultivated fields in southern Ohio,Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important atmospheric trace gas due to its involvement in the postulated global warming phenomenon and in the depletion of the ozone layer. Widespread concern has been triggered by recent reports of increased atmospheric N2O concentration. Since agriculture has been implicated as one contributor to that increase| a monitoring program was undertaken during the 1993 and 1994 cropping season (May-October) to evaluate the effect of several soil management practices on N2O emission from soil. Our results show that rates of N2O emission were generally near baseline levels during most sampling occasions| Major| but short-lived| fluxes of N2O were observed after rainfall events and during the days immediately following fertilizer application. It was during these times that most of the seasonal N2O loss occurred. An excellent relationship was found between seasonal N2O loss (y) and the maximum daily flux of N2O (x) during a season (v = -0.4x(2) + 43.1 x + 338| r(2) = 0.89| P < 0.0001). The N2O emission data were log normally distributed for both years| Average daily emissions of N2O were 6.9 +/- 6.3 g (range| 0.3-74.7 g) N2O-N ha(-1) day(-1) and 17.6 +/- 10.5 g (range| 0.1-326 g) N2O-N ha(-1) day(-1) during the 1993 and 1994 seasons| respectively. Seasonal N2O-N losses were| in general| highest in the continuous corn (CC) (Zea mays L.) plots and lowest in the soybean (Glycine max L.) plots of the corn/soybean/wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-hairy vetch (Vicia villosa Roth) rotation (CSW-V). Average N loss as N2O during a cropping season was between 0.6 kg (for the soybean crop of the CSWV rotation and ridge till treatment) and 3.7 kg N2O-N ha(-1) year(-1)| (for the CC rotation and the chisel till treatment). Approximately 0.5-3% of the inorganic N fertilizer added was lost as N2O. Our data show that seasonal N2O-N loss from chisel-till plots were generally significantly higher than From no-till or ridge till plots. 2382,1997,2,4,Soil-atmosphere fluxes of carbon monoxide during early stages of postfire succession in upland Canadian boreal forests,Soil-atmosphere fluxes of carbon monoxide (GO) were investigated during BOREAS 1994 (June to September 1994) in forest sites near the northern study area (NSA) of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS). Fluxes and related ancillary data were measured for both upland black spruce (located on poorly drained clay-textured soils) and jack pine sites (well-drained sandy soils) that were in early stages of succession following stand replacement fires that occurred within 7 years of BOREAS 1993. Nearby control stands that had not burned in the past 80 years were studied for comparison. Net fluxes measured by using transparent closed chambers were generally positive at the warmer| sunlit burn sites but negative (sink activity) in the shaded| cooler control sites. Carbon monoxide uptake in controls| which was first order with respect to CO concentration| was little affected by covering the sampling chambers to exclude light. Median deposition velocities calculated from the uptake fluxes were 0.015 cm s(-1) at the black spruce control site and 0.0055 cm s(-1) at the jack pine control site| at the lower end of the range of values observed by others in tropical and temperate ecosystems. Daytime CO fluxes at the burn sites were generally positive (10(11)-10(12) molecules cm(-2) s(-1)) and were lowered when solar irradiance was excluded from the chambers by covering or when cloudiness or smoke reduced the light intensity. Net fluxes at the burn sites were controlled by competition between abiotic production| mainly at the surface| and by oxidation deeper in the soil. Abiotic production| which was attributable to photoproduction and thermal decomposition of the surface organic layer and charcoal| strongly correlated with incident solar irradiance| and thus the greatest fluxes were observed during midday. Results of these studies indicate that the locally dependent changes in boreal fire return intervals that are linked to global climate change represent an important biospheric/physical feedback that is likely to alter the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of CO. 4882,1997,3,4,Solar cell materials| technologies| applications and their impact on developing countries,Ecological concern is growing as the world approaches the twenty-first century. The widening gap between electricity demand and generation| especially in developing and newly industrialised countries| is increasing the pressure for increased power generation. This will result in staggering amounts of air pollution if the world continues to depend on oil and fossil fuels. The development of clean energy sources has thus become an important task in arresting gas emissions and in protecting the Earth's eco-system. This article reviews the place of solar photovoltaic technology in the quest for clean energy. 2397,1997,4,3,Solar forcing of global climate change since the mid-17th century,Spacecraft measurements of the sun's total irradiance since 1980 have revealed a long-term variation that is roughly in phase with the 11-year solar cycle. Its origin is uncertain| but may be related to the overall level of solar magnetic activity as well as to the concurrent activity on the visible disk. A low-pass Gaussian filtered time series of the annual sunspot number has been developed as a suitable proxy for solar magnetic activity that contains a long-term component related to the average level of activity as well as a short-term component related to the current phase of the I I-year cycle. This time series is also assumed to be a proxy for solar total irradiance| and the irradiance is reconstructed for the period since 1617 based on the estimate from climatic evidence that global temperatures during the Maunder Minimum of solar activity| which coincided with one of the coldest periods of the Little Ice Age| were about 1 degrees C colder than modem temperatures. This irradiance variation is used as the variable radiative forcing function in a one-dimensional ocean-climate model| leading to a reconstruction of global temperatures over the same period| and to a suggestion that solar forcing and anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing made roughly equal contributions to the rise in global temperature that took place between 1900 and 1955. The importance of solar variability as a factor in climate change over the last few decades may have been underestimated in recent studies. 2428,1997,2,4,Spruce and fir regeneration and climate in the forest-tundra ecotone of Rocky Mountain National Park| Colorado USA,As an ecological boundary zone| the forest-tundra ecotone is a valuable location to study the initial response of vegetation to global climate change. The purpose of this study is to predict the potential response of the forest-tundra ecotone in Rocky Mountain National Park to future climate change using data on historical episodes of establishment in patch forest openings of the forest-tundra ecotone. We hypothesized that recent seedling establishment in patch forest openings of the forest-tundra ecotone| not balanced by mortality| was triggered by a warm| but wet period following the end of the Little Ice Age ca. A.D. 1850. At four sampling locations distributed throughout the Park| we determined dates of establishment among patch forest trees using increment cores and basal disks. We studied the relationship between establishment dates in relation to historical climate records using t-tests and logistic regression. In Rocky Mountian National Park| tree invasion in patch forest openings is episodic in nature| concentrated between 1951-1964| and is not balanced by mortality| suggesting more than a short-term change in the ecotone. On the basis of the climate record| t-tests| and logistic models| we concluded that both high temperatures and high snow depths must occur simultaneously for several years in order to generate climatic conditions suitable for tree establishment. The historic climate record indicates that a warmer and wetter period occurred during the 1950s and 1960s| but climate data are unavailable before 1880. According to proxy climate records| it appears that the regional climate of the southern Rocky Mountain region has been both warmer and wetter since the end of the Little Ice Age (ca. A.D. 1350-1850). We conclude that these climatic conditions may be related to the tree invasion we observed in patch forest openings of Rocky Mountain National Park. 4812,1997,4,4,Spurious trends in satellite MSU temperatures from merging different satellite records,Analysis of global surface air temperature records has indicated that recent years have been among the warmest since the late nineteenth century(1)| with 1995 being the warmest year on record(2)| But the rate of global annual mean surface warming of 0.13 degrees C per decade during the period 1979-95 differs substantially from the global lower-tropospheric cooling trend of -0.05 degrees C per decade(3) inferred from the record (MSU-2R) of radiance measurements by the satellite Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU)(4|5). Accordingly| the satellite record has been widely cited by sceptics as evidence against global warming(6-10). However| a substantial fraction of the measured radiance originates not from the atmosphere but from the Earth's surface(11)| and gives rise to high noise levels| This noise can lead to errors when merging temperature time series obtained from different satellites. Here we present comparisons among different MSU retrievals| sea surface temperatures (SSTs)| and equivalent MSU temperatures derived from an atmospheric general circulation model forced with observed SSTs. The comparisons| focused on the tropics where atmospheric temperatures are closely tied to SSTs| strongly suggest that two spurious downward jumps occur in the MSU-2R record coinciding with changes in satellites| and that the real trend in MSU temperatures is likely to be positive| albeit small. 4766,1997,3,2,Stabilization of the greenhouse impact caused by anthropogenic emissions from Nordic countries,The possibility of decreasing the Nordic countries' contribution to global warming in the future is examined. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2)| methane (CH4)| and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are considered. Global average radiative forcing is used as a measure of the greenhouse impact caused by the emissions. Past emissions are included in the study because they have impact far into the future. The calculation method utilized in this study can be applied to any other country. Two hypothetical future emission development cases are presented| and the radiative forcing caused by them is calculated. In the higher emission (case A) CO2 emissions remain above current level| while N2O and CH4 emissions decrease. In the lower emission (case B) the emissions decrease to about one-tenth of the current emissions by the year 2100. Only if very strict emission reductions (case B) take place will the greenhouse impact of the Nordic countries return to current levels during next century. Likewise| the per capita radiative forcing of Nordic countries will remain above global average unless the emissions decrease drastically (case B) and the current population levels are used in per capita calculation. 4894,1997,3,4,Status report on the development of a liquid HFC blowing agent,CFC blowing agents have been eliminated from virtually all polyurethane foam applications and replaced| in many cases| with the more environmentally acceptable HCFCs. In many applications the preference has been to convert from one liquid blowing agent to another| i.e.| from CFC-11 to HCFC-141b. With the planned phaseout of HCFC-141b less than a decade away| there is a clear need for a ''next generation'' liquid blowing agent to eventually replace HCFC-141b. Previously| we reported the results of preliminary performance evaluations of four promising liquid HFC blowing ag-ent candidates and the screening process used to select those four candidates. In this paper we discuss the environmental| toxicological and performance characteristics of our primary liquid HFC blowing agent candidate. The first criterion for a new blowing agent is environmental acceptability. A candidate must have a zero Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) and a low Global Warming Potential (GWP)| and should be free from other environmental concerns. Accordingly| the paper begins with a discussion of environmental properties such as atmospheric lifetime and GWP. It is equally important that the toxicological properties of a blowing agent candidate be well understood. The results of early toxicity tests have been very promising. These are reported along with a proposed timetable for additional toxicity testing. Ultimately| the acceptability of a new blowing agent will be based on performance. Data from laboratory foam evaluations involving both polyurethane and polyisocyanurate foams are presented. In addition to foam properties| other key performance characteristics such as plastics compatibility| blowing agent stability| foam premix stability and decomposition have been evaluated and are discussed. 2421,1997,2,3,Stem respiration of ponderosa pines grown in contrasting climates: Implications for global climate change,We examined the effects of climate and allocation patterns on stem respiration in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) growing on identical substrate in the cool| moist Sierra Nevada mountains and the warm| dry| Great Basin Desert. These environments are representative of current climatic conditions and those predicted to accompany a doubling of atmospheric CO2| respectively| throughout the range of many western north American conifers. A previous study found that trees growing in the desert allocate proportionally more biomass to sapwood and less to leaf area than montane trees. We tested the hypothesis that respiration rates of sapwood are lower in desert trees than in montane trees due to reduced stem maintenance respiration (physiological acclimation) or reduced construction cost of stem tissue (structural acclimation). Maintenance respiration per unit sapwood Volume at 15 degrees C did not differ between populations (desert: 6.39 +/- 1.14 SE mu mol m(-3) s(-1)| montane: 6.54 +/- 1.13 SE mu mol m(-3) s(-1)| P = 0.71) and declined with increasing stem diameter (P = 0.001). The temperature coefficient of respiration (Q(10)) varied seasonally within both environments (P = 0.05). Construction cost of stem sapwood was the same in both environments (desert: 1.46 +/- 0.009 SE g glucose g(-1) sapwood| montane: 1.48 +/- 0.009 SE glucose g(-1) sapwood| P = 0.14). Annual construction respiration calculated from construction cost| percent carbon and relative growth rate was greater in montane populations due to higher growth rates. These data provide no evidence of respiratory acclimation by desert trees. Estimated yearly stem maintenance respiration was greater in large desert trees than in large montane trees because of higher temperatures in the desert and because of increased allocation of biomass to sapwood. By analogy| these data suggest that under predicted increases in temperature and aridity| potential increases in aboveground carbon gain due to enhanced photosynthetic rates may be partially offset by increases in maintenance respiration in large trees growing in CO2-enriched atmospheres. 2438,1997,5,4,Stepwise climate change recorded in Eocene-Oligocene paleosol sequences from Central Oregon,Successions of paleosols bounded by erosional surfaces in fluvial sediments of the Eocene-Oligocene strata of Central Oregon can be interpreted as terrestrial equivalents of the unconformity-bound units of sequence stratigraphy. In the upper part of the upper Eocene Clarno Formation and in the lower part of the lower Eocene-lower Miocene John Day Formation| truncation surfaces separate otherwise conformable alluvial deposits and allow for stratigraphic subdivision into informal members (lower and upper ''Red Hill'' claystones in the Clarno Formation and lower| middle| and upper Big Basin Members and lower Turtle Cove Member in the John Day Formation). Paleosols in each member show a stepwise change in the degree of weathering of the most strongly developed paleosols: kaolinite-rich| Ultisol-like paleosols in lower ''Red Hill'' claystones (late Eocene| 42-43 Ma)| smectite-rich Alfisol-like paleosols in the upper ''Red Hill'' claystones (late Eocene| 41-42 Ma)| Alfisols and Ultisol-Like paleosols in the lower Big Basin Member (late Eocene| 34-40 Ma)| Alfisol and Inceptisol-like paleosols in the middle and upper Big Basin Members (early Oligocene| 30-34 Ma)| and calcic Inceptisol-like paleosols in the lower Turtle Cove Member (middle Oligocene| 28-30 Ma). These changes across the Eocene-Oligocene transition are interpreted as representing global cooling and drying of the midlatitudes from Eocene subtropical| humid conditions to Oligocene temperate| subhumid conditions. In central Oregon| these changes appear to be stepwise with climatically stable periods| represented by packages of similar paleosols| of approximately 2-4 m.y. in duration. Our interpretation of these paleosol packages as non-marine sequences is not based on correlation with sea-level changes but on correlation with global climate change events. Geomorphic processes influenced by climate and vegetation| and not base-level change| basin subsidence| or volcanic supply are thought to have controlled sedimentation rates. Thus| the stepwise increase in sedimentation rates across the Eocene-Oligocene transition in the central Oregon alluvial strata reflect increased sediment yields due to drying climatic conditions. High-precision Ar-40/Ar-39 age determinations of tuffs allow for the correlation of these sequences with the record of global climate change from deep sea cores. Three major paleoclimatic changes stand out. The change from Ultisol-Like paleosols formed in near-tropical climate to Alfisol-like paleosols formed in subtropical climate between 42.8 and 43 Ma corresponds to a global cooling trend after the mid-Eocene climatic optimum. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary (similar to 34 Ma) is marked by the change from subtropical Ultisol-like paleosols to Alfisol-like paleosols formed in temperate humid climate. Global cooling during the mid-Oligocene (similar to 30 Ma) is reflected in a change from non-calcareous| Alfisol-like paleosols to calcareous Andisol-like paleosols formed in sub-humid temperate conditions. These mid-Tertiary paleosol sequences are evidence of stepwise terrestrial climate change that was strongly coupled with marine events. 4724,1997,2,4,Stochastic hydrology in the context of climate change,Hydrologic trends| real (physical) or perceived (statistical)| suggest that water management be predicated on the assumption of hydrologic nonstationarity. The assumption leaves open the question to what extent will the ''trends'' be sustained locally and regionally over the future 25| 50 or 100 years corresponding to the economic time horizons of water projects. Whether hydrologic trends are real or perceived| record events of hydrologic extremes| floods and droughts| will be broken with exceedingly high probabilities over the economic lives of water projects. Before the assumption of hydrologic nonstationarity is accepted| the ability to cope with the uncertain impacts of global warming on water management via the operational assumption of hydrologic stationarity should be carefully examined. In the absence of strong physical evidence| trends cannot be unequivocally distinguished from slow oscillations. Slow oscillations can be mimicked by persistence in stationary processes. It is time to examine the relative merits of the assumptions of stationarity and nonstationarity in the operational context of water management. The strategy of wait-and-see| i.e. delaying the making of important| expensive and essentially irreversible capital investments| could served water managers well in coping with the uncertainties regarding climate change. 2396,1997,4,4,Students' understanding of climate change: Insights for scientists and educators,Teachers and meteorologists are among the most respected purveyors of scientific information to the public. As such| they can play an influential role in educating the public about basic atmosphere-related phenomena. To better full-fill this educational role| it is necessary to (i) identify and (ii) correct people's major misconceptions about climatic and atmospheric issues| including global climate change. This paper reports the results of a survey of high school students' knowledge and attitudes about climate change. The authors use open-ended survey questions to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the range of ''mistakes'' that are made. The results show misconceptions including inflated estimates of temperature change| confusion between ozone depletion and global warming| the perception of warmer weather and a belief that all environmentally harmful acts cause climate change. Also discussed is the origin of these mistakes from the perspective of current social scientific literature. It is suggested that these misconceptions arise from low levels of information| reliance on the televised news media| use of judgmental heuristics| confusion between weather and climate| and ''fuzzy environmentalism|'' wherein students perceive disparate environmental harms as significantly interrelated. The study also reveals that students have a very high level of trust in scientists and teachers. This suggests a role for scientists and educators through which they help correct misconceptions about climate change and ensure that people adopt effective environmentally protective measures. 4692,1997,2,4,Temperature and the life-history strategies of sea turtles,1. Sea turtles have a high fecundity| high mortality| great longevity life history strategy. 2. With the exception of the leatherback| turtle distribution is constrained by the 20 degrees C surface isotherm. 3. All sea turtles exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) with pivotal temperatures close to 29 degrees C. 4. It is suggested that hatchling sex ratio will vary chaotically because of TSD. 5. Because of TSD and natal homing| sea turtles are likely to be adversely affected by global warming. 6. TSD and global warming have implications for conservation/management of sea turtles. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4869,1997,2,4,Temperature increase and its effect on microbial biomass and activity of tropical and temperate soils,Microbial biomass and activity of tropical and temperate soils from Brazil and England| respectively| were measured during 150 days incubation at 15 degrees C and 35 degrees C. Extractable carbon was determined by the fumigation-extraction method giving initial biomass values ranges from 160-600 mu g C.g(-1) soil for tropical soils and from 400-1300 mu g C.g(-1) soil for temperate soils. It was evident from all soils (except a tropical one) that biomass at 35 degrees C decreased more| over a long incubation period| than at 15 degrees C; the temperate soils had the highest decrease at 35 degrees C. Death rate of biomass quotient (go) calculated over the 150 days period of incubation showed that tropical and temperate soils| at 15 degrees C| have similar values| but at 35 degrees C temperate soils had higher rates than tropical soils| confirming the existence of some sensitivity of temperate soils to elevated temperature. Carbon from carbon dioxide (CO2-C) was also measured for all soils investigated. There was a greater respiration rate at 35 degrees C than at 15 degrees C for all the soils. The temperate soils showed faster mineralization rate than the tropical| mainly at 35 degrees C. At this temperature the amounts of CO2-C respired were from 2 to 9 times as much carbon as was present in the original biomass| indicating that this carbon could only have come from the soil organic matter. Biomass specific respiration rate (mg CO2-C evolved.g(-1) biomass.day(-1)) showed greater values for temperate soils at both temperatures| at 15 degrees C the rate was 2.7 times greater and at 35 degrees C the rate was 2.4 times greater. These results suggest that there is more available energy| in the temperate soils than in the tropical soils| reinforcing that there is more carbon stored in microbial biomass of temperate soils. Comments are made on a possible contributionof microorganisms| mainly of temperate soils| to global warming| in case of a global atmospheric temperature elevation. However| it is important to consider other factors inherent to soil characteristics (i.e. organic matter added to soil| its plant cover| soil erosion| deforestation and climatic changes) as possibly stronger causes of global warming. 4852,1997,2,4,Temperature| humidity and precipitation variations in Argentina and the adjacent sub-antarctic region during the present century,The problem regarding a possible warming in Argentina and in the adjacent sub-antarctic region has been studied within the framework of the global warming issue and taking into account the evolution of the global mean surface temperature since 1880. For this reason| the decadal averages of the annual means of the maximum| minimum and daily mean temperature| the vapor pressure and the precipitation corresponding to the periods of 1941-1950 and 1981-1990 have been compared for representative meteorological stations. The decade of 1941-1950 was chosen as a reference one as it is the warmest decade of the period of 1901-1950 in the Argentine Pampa and Chaco plains. Then| the annual mean temperature series and the annual precipitation series from representative stations of the Argentine geographical regions have been analysed. The results of these studies indicate a significant warming in southern Patagonia and South Orkney Islands since the forties or earlier| with the augmentation of each of three temperature parameters being larger than 1 degrees C. North of about 42 degrees S| however| no warming has been observed. Here| mean extreme temperatures vary in opposite directions: the mean maximum temperature decreases| while the mean minimum temperature increases. This behavior is consistent with that of the vapor pressure and the precipitation which - north of 40 degrees S - have increased since the forties. As to the sub-antarctic region in particular| the augmentation of the precipitation observed in Base Orcadas station (South Orkney Islands)| which proved to be significant at the confidence level of 1%| may be partially associated with the general warming in that region. 4783,1997,4,4,Temperature-controlled open-top chambers for global change research,To enable experiments on the interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and increased air temperature on physiological processes in trees to be carried out| we altered the standard design of open-top chambers by replacing blowers with evaporative coolers and in-line heaters| with a feedback control system to maintain ambient or elevated air temperatures within the chambers. Ambient and elevated (+ 4 degrees C) temperature regimes were attained consistently and reliably throughout the growing season| with high reproducibility between chambers. From May through December the average of nearly 300|000 temperature measurements was 18.5 degrees C in ambient air| 18.9 +/- 0.6 degrees C in six ambient chambers| and 22.4 +/- 0.9 degrees C in six elevated temperature chambers. The difference in soil temperature between ambient and elevated chambers was 1.2 degrees C. Absolute humidity (vapour pressure) in the chambers was higher than that of ambient air| but it was generally similar between temperature treatments. Vapour pressure deficit therefore was higher in elevated temperature chambers than in ambient chambers| and this difference is considered an inseparable part of the temperature treatment. The addition of a temperature control system to open-top chambers removes what has been an important flaw in this important tool for global change research. 4779,1997,2,4,The 1995 Chicago heat wave: How likely is a recurrence?,The deadly heat wave of July 1995 that affected much of the U.S. midwest| most notably Chicago| Illinois| has been put into historical perspective. The heat wave has been found to be remarkably unusual| but only partially because of the extreme high apparent temperatures (an index of the combined effect of temperature and humidity on humans)| when the authors calculate a return period of the peak apparent temperature of less than or equal to 23 yr. Of greater significance were the very high temperatures that persisted day and night over an extended 48-h period. Analysis presented here indicates that for Chicago such an extended period of continuously high day and night apparent temperature is unprecedented in modem times. The 2-day period where the minimum apparent temperature failed to go below 31.5 degrees C (89 degrees F) is calculated to be an extremely rare event (probability of occurrence < 0.1%) based on a 10 000-yr-long simulation of a four-parameter (temperatures related to the mean| the intraseasonal daily variance| the interannual variance| and the day-to-day persistence of temperature) probabilistic model. Such unusual heat waves evoke questions related to the future course of the climate and whether this recent event was merely an extreme anomaly or part of an ongoing trend toward more extreme heat waves. A Monte Carlo analysis of trends (1948-95) for various quantiles of the hourly apparent temperatures during the most severe heat waves each year from 26 midwestern stations reveals a modest| statistically insignificant increase of apparent temperatures for a wide range of quantiles without the inclusion of 1995 data. There is a statistically significant increase in apparent temperature with its inclusion| reflected most strongly for upper quantiles or daytime temperatures. It is argued| however| that because of the impact of changes in instrumentation at primary National Weather Service stations| the potential affects of urbanization| and little trend of summer mean temperatures| it is unlikely that the macroscale climate of heat waves in the Midwest or in Chicago is changing in any significant manner. Trends notwithstanding| the authors demonstrate the difficulty associated with projecting changes in the frequency and severity of similar types of events| even if the mean apparent temperature could be accurately predicted for the next century| for example| global warming projections. This is demonstrated using Chicago temperatures. The authors show that accurate projections of the frequency| severity| and duration of heat waves in the Midwest require accurate projections not only of the mean| the interannual variance| the intraseasonal variance| and day-to-day persistence| but also the interrelationships among these quantities within different synoptic-climatic regimes. 4784,1997,5,4,The borehole temperature record of climate warming in the mid-continent of North America,Ground-surface temperature (GST) histories| determined from a carefully selected set of twenty-nine borehole temperature profiles| show a warming trend over the last century that increases systematically with latitude in the mid-continent of North America. Except one site in north Texas| the borehole locations lie within a 500 x 1000 km transect that extends from the Kansas-Nebraska border into southern Manitoba. Ground-surface warming during the last century increases from + 0.4 degrees C at 41.1 degrees N to + 2.0 degrees C at 49.6 degrees N. Surface air temperature (SAT) warming in the transect| determined from Historical Climatology Network stations| increases from + 0.5 degrees C per century at 40 degrees N to + 1.6 degrees C per century at 48.8 degrees N. These warming trends agree with the regional warming pattern predicted by GCM simulations of global warming. However| the magnitudes of warming determined from the GST and the SAT data agree in regions where seasonal ground freezing does not occur but differ significantly when seasonal ground freezing does occur| Analysis of ground and air temperature coupling suggests that the greater warming observed in the GST histories in seasonally frozen ground is due to a secular increase in soil moisture that corresponds with increased precipitation during the past 50 years. (C) Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2398,1997,4,4,The chemistry of the polluted atmosphere over Europe: Simulations and sensitivity studies with a regional chemistry-transport-model,A model environment has been established| which allows an estimation of the influence of global climate change on the chemistry of the polluted atmosphere over Europe. For this purpose the regional chemistry-transport-model of the EURAD-system has been modified and made adaptable for input data from a regional climate model| which is nested in a global atmospheric circulation model. Thus| the dynamical aspect of a possible global temperature increase as well as enhanced water vapour concentrations and background concentrations of carbon monoxide and methane can be considered. By substituting the meteorological driver model the main problems arise from different vertical grids and physical parameterization Schemes. In particular| the parameterization of cloud processes has to be checked to avoid inconsistencies between the chemistry-transport-model and its meteorological driver model. As the length of a simulation period is mainly limited by the large amount of computer| time spent for the determination of chemical transformation rates| the gas-phase chemistry module has been optimized concerning computer time and numerical stability. For validation studies of the new model system two episodic simulations were investigated| one for a summer photo-oxidants period in July 1990| the other one for January 1991. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4867,1997,3,3,The costs and benefits of mitigation: A full-fuel-cycle examination of technologies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions,Comparison of options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions must take account of many different matters in a consistent manner. A method of full-fuel-cycle analysis has been developed with this aim in mind. In this method| technical options are compared using a measure made up from the ''private costs'' of owning and operating a power station together with the ''external costs'' representing its environmental impact. The method is tested on three types of power generation plant| each of which incorporates CO2 capture and sequestration technology - these include natural gas-fired and coal-fired power plant| as well as CO2 storage in a disused gas field| in the deep ocean or in an off-set forest. Emissions arising from all stages of the fuel cycle are estimated - from extraction of fossil fuel through to dispatch of power to the grid. All types of emission and their impact at local| regional and global level are assessed and valuation of these impacts is attempted. Previous work in this field has concentrated on local impacts| such as occupational health| and regional impacts| such as ''acid rain''. This study is one of the first to include a comprehensive assessment of global warming impacts| how these will vary with time as well as geographically| including allowance for any potential benefits. From this| the environmental external costs of the fuel cycles are determined. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4815,1997,3,4,The decomposition of forest products in landfills,Large quantities of forest products are disposed of in landfills annually. The fate of this vast pool of carbon is important since carbon sequestration and the generation of landfill gases have important implications for global warming. Published estimates of methane yields were used to estimate the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere from landfilled forest products. These calculations suggest that maximally only 30% of the carbon from paper and 0-3% of the carbon from wood are ever emitted as landfill gas. The remaining carbon| approximately 28 Tg in 1993| remains in the landfill indefinitely. Some of this carbon may be removed during leachate treatment| but a large portion is permanently sequestered when its impact on global warming is negligible. The placement of forest products in landfills serves as a significant carbon sink| and its importance in the global carbon balance should not be overlooked. Published by Elsevier Science Limited. 4855,1997,4,3,The discovery of the risk of global warming,It is now a century since S^ante Arrhenius published the idea: As human activity puts ever more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere| global warming becomes ever more likely. (See figure 1 and the box on page 36.) His paper attracted notice| and one might suppose that knowledge of the so-called "greenhouse effect" has grown steadily ever since.1 But that is not in fact how the science proceeded. During more than half a century after 1896 almost nothing of value was learned about global warming. Only in the late 1950s did scientists at last begin to regard it as a serious possibility| indeed a potential danger.
Not that climate change itself had been ignored; even the general public paid attention to that. By the late 1930s it was common knowledge that the world had been warming up. Grandfathers were saying that the younger generation had it easy: none of those early frosts and daunting blizzards of bygone times. And in fact| as one magazine put it in 1951| "The old-timers are right—win- ters aren't what they were." The evidence was largely anecdotal. Rivers failed to freeze over as formerly| glaciers retreated| and fish were found north of their former haunts. But detailed analysis of temperature statistics also seemed undeniably to show a rise.2 (See figure 2.)
Nobody was worried. It seemed reasonable that weather moves in cycles| temperatures rising and falling slightly over decades and centuries. If we happened to be in for a spell of warming| so much the better! A Saturday Evening Post article was typical in supposing that "vast new food-producing areas will be put under cultivation farther north." Such talk attracted little in- terest| for it was merely speculation about some remote future century. And as Time magazine said| "Meteorolo- gists don't know whether the present warm trend is likely to last 20 years or 20|000 years."3
By the early 1960s much had changed. Many scien- tists had become seriously concerned that warming might be no mere phase of a modest natural cycle but the onset of an accelerating climb| unprecedented and foreboding. This shift of understanding and attention may eventually be regarded as one of our century's pivotal scientific developments. Yet as we shall see| it was largely a matter of luck—a byproduct of work aimed at entirely different questions.
The reality of the decreasing global irradiation of more than 0.5 Watt per m(2) annually since the early 50s at the one hand and the augmenting of the green house forcing at the other hand contradict the existing models and the forcasts on global warming. The question regarding the cause of the remarkable decrease of the global irradiation still has to be answered! Two hypothetical attempts for an explanation - additional reflexion and/or absorption of solar irradiation in the atmosphere - are in discussion. The causes have to be sought in the atmosphere of the earth and by the human activities since the 50s. Concluding may be stated that at present there are two opposite climatological processes on the way. The decreasing global irradiation contra the augmentation of the green house forcing. Still it has to be remembered that an increasing green house forcing depends fundamentaly on the amount of the global irradiation. An increasing green house forcing can surely only compensate for a restricted time scale a decrease of the global irradiation. It seems a very alarming vision that the human activities mainly since the 50s cause a global cooling up from the time space when the green house forcing can not compensate the decrease of the global irradiation anymore. In the future modelers and forecasters of climate change must consequently attache more importance to the reality of the wide-spread decreases of the global irradiation over the whole atmosphere presumable caused by aerosols and clouds in releation to the augmenting climate forcings caused by increasing concentrations of green house gases in the atmosphere.
4876,1997,3,3,What is the value of scientific knowledge? An application to global warming using the PRICE model,Governments must cope with the enormous uncertainties about both future climate change as well as the costs and benefits of slowing climate change. This study analyses the value of improved information about a variety of geophysical and economic processes. The value of information is estimated using the ''PRICE model'' which is a probabilistic extension of earlier models of the economics of global warming. The study uses five different approaches to estimating the value of information about all uncertain parameters and about individual parameters. It is estimated that the value of early information is between $1 and $2 billion for each year that resolution of uncertainty is moved toward the present. We estimate that the most important uncertain variables are the damages of climate change and the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Resolving the uncertainties about these two parameters would contribute 75 percent of the value of improved knowledge. 2383,1997,4,4,Why regional studies are needed in the development of full-scale integrated assessment modelling of global change processes,Full-scale integrated assessment models (IAMs) allow many components of the global climate change problem to be examined in one framework. The chief advantage of the IAM approach over less complete modelling frameworks is that the socio-economic and environmental consequences of policy choices aimed at abating or adapting to climate change can be evaluated in their totality| However| the highly aggregate functional forms that IAMs currently embed are lacking in sufficient regional and sectoral detail to be totally credible. In this paper| ten reasons why regional studies are needed in support of the development of full-scale IAMs are given. A strategic cyclical scaling exercise involving regional and global integrated modelling frameworks is proposed| (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2387,1997,2,3,Wildlife and climate change: Assessing the sensitivity of selected species to simulated doubling of atmospheric CO2,We explored| using computer simulations| the sensitivity of four mammal species (elk| Cervus canadensis; white-tailed deer| Odocoileus virginianus; Columbian ground squirrel| Spermophilus columbianus; and chipmunk| Tamias striatus) within the continental USA to the effect of anticipated levels of global climate change brought about by a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Sensitivity to the direct effects of climate change were evaluated using a climate-space approach to delineate the range of thermal conditions tolerable by each species. Sensitivity to indirect effects were evaluated by quantifying the association of each species to the current vegetation distribution within the continental USA and using this association to assess whether wildlife species distributions might shift in response to vegetation shifts under climate change. Results indicate that altered thermal conditions alone should have little or no effect on the wildlife species' distributions as physiological tolerance to heat load would allow them to survive. Analyses of the effects of vegetation change indicate that deer and chipmunks should retain their current distributions and possibly expand westward in the USA. For Elk and ground squirrels| there is a possibility that their current distributions would shrink and there is little possibility that each species would spread to new regions. This work emphasizes that the distributions of the four mammalian species are likely to be influenced more by vegetation changes than by thermal conditions. Future efforts to understand the effects of global change on wildlife species should focus on animal-habitat and climate-vegetation linkages. 4853,1997,2,4,Winter storms in Switzerland north of the Alps 1864/1865-1993/1994,In the framework of the Swiss National Research Program 31 ''Climate changes and natural disasters'' the question was brought up whether a global warming of the atmosphere would have an influence on the frequency and/or intensity of the extratropical storms of the Swiss winter season. In order to investigate a possible trend| time series of days with a minimum wind speed estimate or measurement equivalent to Beaufort 7| 8 and 9 were established. The longest being a record of the mesonet station Zurich from the period 1864 until 1993 (130 years). Slightly shorter time series for three additional stations in Northern Switzerland were compiled to control the behavior of the longest record and to verify the observed temporal trend. From the location of the four investigated wind records the observational domain was restricted to the part of Switzerland north of the Alps whereas for further meteorological considerations the whole North-Atlantic-European area was included. A negative regional trend in the number of storm days has been observed during the last century. In particular| the period before 1940 has to be interpreted as windier than the following decades. The duration of a storm event also decreased on average. In spite of an increase in cyclonic westwind situations since about 1960 over Europe| Switzerland was hit by fewer storms during the same period. One explanation could be that the whole westwind belt has moved slightly further north where a deepening of the cyclones was observed in recent times. Switzerland is usually situated at the southernmost edge of the particular storm fields and is therefore less influenced by strong gales. Rare exceptions are the cases when a secondary depression directly hits Central Europe| e.g. as happened in February 1990 (storm ''Vivian''). 4887,1997,4,4,Wintertime measurement of the greenhouse radiation from nitrous oxide,Ground-based| thermal emission measurements of the cold| clear sky have been made and showed several emission bands in the mid-infrared region that are associated with nitrous oxide (N2O). A spectrum of the background atmospheric emission in the absence of any N2O has been simulated using the FASCD3P line-by-line radiation code with measured radiosonde parameters of pressure| temperature and relative humidity. The simulated spectrum has been used to extract the thermal emission bands of N2O from the total atmospheric emission spectrum. It teas determined that incorporating an N2O mixing ratio of 316 +/- 35 ppbv in the simulations provided excellent agreement with the measured radiance. The downward greenhouse flux at the surface associated with the 1100-1350 cm(-1) bands of N2O was measured to be 0.80 W/m(2) +/- 12% for cold winter conditions. The flux for all the infrared bands of N2O has been estimated to be 1.43 W/m(2) +/- 12%. 4847,1997,3,4,Wood density for estimating forest biomass in Brazilian Amazonia,Reliable estimates of the biomass of Amazonian forests are needed for calculations of greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation. Interpretation of forest volume data for the region is the most practical means of obtaining representative biomass estimates| The density of the wood used in converting volume data to biomass is a key factor affecting estimates of biomass and of emissions. Interpreting density data for biomass purposes| which is different from the normal use of these data for commercial timber uses| is complicated by a variety of factors. There is variability among individuals of a given species| among geographic locations| and within the vertical and radial dimensions of individual trees. Considerable confusion has resulted from the variety of ways that densities are reported with respect to humidity at time of the weight and volume measurements used in calculating the density value. The most appropriate measure for biomass is basic density| or oven-dry weight divided by wet volume. Corrections for hollow trees and the position of samples within trunks are also needed. Here| available data are brought together for 268 species of trees| with an unweighted mean basic density of 0.65 (range 0.14-1.21). Weighting the mean by the volume of wood of each species in a sample of vegetation types| and weighting the means of the vegetation types by the extent of each in the region| yields a mean density of 0.69. Although the weighted mean density calculated here has a much firmer empirical basis than previously available estimates for this parameter| uncertainty is still considerable| particularly as a result of doubt concerning taxonomic identifications in the forestry surveys. Were the wood density of a small but botanically well-studied plot near Manaus to apply to the region as a whole| Brazil's 1990 emissions of greenhouse gases would be higher by an amount equivalent to two-thirds of the country's annual emission from fossil fuels. 2403,1997,2,4,World food markets into the 21st century: environmental and resource constraints and policies,Projections of global food supply and demand to the year 2020 indicate that food production in the aggregate is likely to keep pace with growing populations and incomes| and that real food prices will be stable or slowly declining. This article examines the possible environmental and resource constraints to long-term food production growth and explores the implications of these possible constraints for food and resource policies. The article reviews and synthesises the evidence on biophysical limits to crop productivity; plant genetic resources and biotechnology; the availability of plant nutrients; soil and land degradation; the increasing scarcity and declining quality of water; and the impact of global climate change on agriculture. 4523,1998,3,3,A "green" route to adipic acid: Direct oxidation of cyclohexenes with 30 percent hydrogen peroxide,Currently| the industrial production of adipic acid uses nitric aid oxidation of cyclohexanol or a cyclohexanol/cyclohexanone mixture. The nitrous oxide emission from this process measurably contributes to global warming and ozone depletion. Therefore| the development of an adipic acid production process that is Less damaging to the environment is an important subject in chemical research. Cyclohexene can now be oxidized directly to colorless crystalline adipic acid with aqueous 30 percent hydrogen peroxide under organic solvent- and halide-free conditions| which could provide an ideal solution to this serious problem. 4580,1998,4,4,A 'Richter scale for risk'? Scientific management of uncertainty versus management of scientific uncertainty,There have recently been calls in the UK for the development of a 'Richter scale for risk'. It is helpful when considering the merits of these proposals to distinguish three categories of risk: directly perceptible risk| e.g. climbing a tree| riding a bicycle; risks perceptible with the help of science| e.g| cholera and other infectious diseases; and virtual risks| about which scientists do not know or can not agree| e|g. BSE/CJD and suspected carcinogens. The professional management of directly perceptible risks is made difficult and frustrating by people insisting on being their own risk managers| and overriding the judgements of risk experts and the interventions of safety regulators. Risks perceived through science are framed in terms of probabilities. The Richter scale for risk seeks| by means of a table of 'benchmark risks'| to help scientists communicate their knowledge of risk to the lay public. But frequently these probabilities are nothing but confident sounding expressions of uncertainty. We do not respond blankly to uncertainty; we impose meanings upon it| and act upon these meanings. Virtual risks may or may not be imaginary - but they hare real consequences. The diverse responses to the inconclusive scientific evidence about issues such as BSE;| pesticide residues| low level radiation| and global warming indicate that virtual risks are perceived through different cultural filters. The incoherent and inconclusive debates about such issues suggest the need for a better understanding of these fillers. 4656,1998,4,1,A Bayesian statistical analysis of the enhanced greenhouse effect,This paper demonstrates that there is a robust statistical relationship between the records of the global mean surface air temperature and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide over the period 1870-1991. As such| the enhanced greenhouse effect is a plausible explanation for the observed global warming. Long term natural variability is another prime candidate for explaining the temperature rise of the last century. Analysis of natural variability from paleo-reconstructions| however| shows that human activity is so much more likely an explanation that the earlier conclusion is not refuted. But| even if one believes in large natural climatic variability| the odds are invariably in favour of the enhanced greenhouse effect. The above conclusions hold for a range of statistical models| including one that is capable of describing the stabilization of the global mean temperature from the 1940s to the 1970s onwards. This model is also shown to be otherwise statistically adequate. The estimated climate sensitivity is about 3.8 degrees C with a standard deviation of 0.9(degrees) C| but depends slightly on which model is preferred and how much natural variability is allowed. These estimates neglect| however| the fact that carbon dioxide is but one of a number of greenhouse gases and that sulphate aerosols may well have dampened warming. Acknowledging the fact that carbon dioxide is used as a proxy for all human induced changes in radiative forcing brings a lot of additional uncertainty. Prior knowledge on both climate sensitivity and radiative forcing is needed to say anything about the respective sizes. A fully Bayesian approach is used to combine expert knowledge with information from the observations. Prior knowledge on the climate sensitivity plays a dominant role. The data largely exclude climate sensitivity to be small| but cannot exclude climate sensitivity to be large| because of the possibility of strong negative sulphate forcing. The posterior of climate sensitivity has a strong positive skewness. Moreover| its mode (again 3.8 degrees C; standard deviation 2.4 degrees C) is higher than the best guess of the TPCC. 4508,1998,3,3,A carbon arc process for treatment of CF4 emissions,Light perfluorocarbons| such as carbon tetrafluoride| are produced or emitted from a Variety of processes| including manufacture of aluminum and processing of semiconductor devices. At the same time| the long atmospheric lifetime and high global warming potential of such compounds makes them an environmental concern. A new process far the abatement of perfluorocarbon emissions using a carbon are plasma was investigated| in particular| the conversion of CF4 to C2F4 and higher fluorinated species| including poly(tetrafluoroethylene) (PTFE) was demonstrated. General features of the reaction chemistry are discussed| including primary reactions to form radicals and ions and secondary reactions to form C2F4 and higher compounds. The conversion efficiencies and products obtained in the reported experiments indicate potential applicability of the process for point source emission control of high global warming potential perfluorocarbons. 4556,1998,4,3,A climate change scenario for the tropics,This paper describes the construction of a climate change scenario for a region representing the 'extended' Tropics - 30 degrees N to 30 degrees S - using a methodology that combines results from a simple climate model and a Global Climate Model (GCM) transient climate change experiment. The estimated date by which this climate change scenario might be realized ranges from as early as the end of the 2030s to as late as well into the 22nd century. The central estimate is for this scenario to describe the climate of the 2060s| which would represent a global warming rate of about 0.2 degrees C per decade| with associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations estimated to be about 560 ppmv| 55% higher than 1990 levels. The role of anthropogenic aerosols in offsetting part of this future global warming and altering the regional character of the changes has not been considered. The paper presents changes in mean temperature; mean rainfall; rainfall seasonality| variability| frequency| and intensity and soil moisture. These patterns of change derive from only one GCM climate change experiment; different experiments would yield different patterns for the same global warming. There is also some discussion about possible changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity| although since TCs remain poorly modelled in GCMs| the full range of possibilities (from reduced activity| through no change| to increased activity) should be considered in any impact assessment. 4605,1998,4,3,A common-sense climate index: Is climate changing noticeably?,We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive| the sense predicted to accompany global warming| In a few regions| especially in Asia and western North America| the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already| but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature| which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s| We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the nest few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years| and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios. 2349,1998,2,4,A look at global tropical cyclone activity during 1995: Contrasting high Atlantic activity with low activity in other basins,During 1995| there was a near-record number of named tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. This unusual event fueled speculation that it marked a tangible signal of global:climate change| or that it marked a return to a period of higher tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic| such as that which has been documented to have occurred during the decades of the 1940s through the 1960s. Less publicized| the tropical cyclone activity in other basins during 1995 was almost everywhere below normal. The concept of global and basin "prolific" years and "meager" years is introduced. During the past 30 years| the Atlantic has had two prolific years: 1969 and 1995. Although the annual number of tropical cyclones in each of the other basins is uncorrelated with the annual number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic| the two Atlantic prolific years of 1969 and 1995 were meager years in some of the other major basins| and below normal years in all of them. In the time series of the annual number of tropical cyclones in all basins except the Atlantic| 1969 and 1995 rank lowest and third lowest| respectively. The known relationships of the annual number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic with ENSO and with the quasi-biennial ossilation are insufficient to explain the unusual global distribution of tropical cyclones during 1995. 4653,1998,2,4,A model for the influence of the greenhouse effect on insect and microorganism geographical distribution and population dynamics,A model for the influence of the greenhouse effect on insect and microorganism geographical distribution and population dynamics using cellular automata is presented. Based on this model| an algorithm has been developed and used to determine the geographical distribution and population dynamics of a hypothetical species in an scenario of global warming. The species' initial population distribution is assumed to be Gaussian. After the initiation of global warming| the population moves and after a few decades the population distribution is no longer Gaussian. Larger populations are found in the direction of population movement. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. 2370,1998,2,2,A modeling approach to simulate impact of climate change in lake water quality: Phytoplankton growth rate assessment,Global climate change induced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (especially CO2) is expected to include changes in precipitation| wind speed| incoming solar radiation| and air temperature. These major climate variables directly influence water quality in lakes by altering changes in flow and water temperature balance. High concentration of nutrient enrichment and expected variability of climate can lead to periodic phytoplankton blooms and an alteration of the neutral trophic balance. As a result| dissolved oxygen levels| with low concentrations| can fluctuate widely and algal productivity may reach critical levels. In this work| we will present: 1) recent results of GCMs climate scenarios downscaling project that was held at the University of Derby| UK.; 2) current/future comparative results of a new mathematical lake eutrophication model (LEM) in which output of phytoplankton growth rate and dissolved oxygen will be presented for Suwa lake in Japan as a case study. The model parameters were calibrated for the period of 1973-1983 and validated for the period of 1983-1993. Meteorologic| hydrologic| and lake water quality data of 1990 were selected for the assessment analysis. Statistical relationships between seven daily meteorological time series and three airflow indices were used as a means for downscaling daily outputs of Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM2SUL) to the station sub-grid scale. (C) 1998 IAWQ. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 4524,1998,4,4,A modelling methodology for assessing the impact of climate variability and climatic change on hydroelectric generation,A new methodology relating basic climatic variables to hydroelectric generation was developed. The methodology can be implemented in large or small basins with any number of hydro plants. The method was applied to the Sacramento| Eel and Russian river basins in-northern California where more than 100 hydroelectric plants are located. The final model predicts the availability of hydroelectric generation for the entire basin provided present and near past climate conditions| with about 90% accuracy. The results can be used for water management purposes or for analyzing the effect of climate variability on hydrogeneration. Climate change scenarios were defined to investigate the impact of global warming on the hydrogeneration availability in the basin. A wide range of results can be obtained depending on the climate change scenario used. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4590,1998,2,4,A monthly streamflow model,To estimate the potential consequences of projected global warming on streamflow| a deterministic model for a monthly timescale has been developed. The model structure is based on the water budget theory and contains deterministic relationships to estimate four components of streamflow: direct runoff| interflow| base flow| and snowmelt. The model inputs are six climate variables for each time step and 10 watershed parameters. The model has four calibration parameters which are related to direct runoff and snowmelt runoff. The model has been applied to the Little Washita River watershed in Oklahoma and the Baptism River watershed in Minnesota. The former is an agricultural watershed with a warm and seasonally dry climate| and the latter is a forested watershed with a cool and humid climate. The model simulates mean monthly streamflow in the Baptism River with a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) of 0.99 and a correlation coefficient of 0.83. For the Little Washita River the same simulation measures are 0.94 and 0.89| respectively. 4670,1998,3,3,A review of carbon and nitrogen balances in switchgrass grown for energy,Increased atmospheric CO2| caused partly by burning fossil fuels| is assumed to elevate the risk of global warming| while nitrate contamination of surface runoff and groundwater from fertilizer and agricultural wastes constitutes a serious environmental hazard on a regional scale. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) grown as an energy crop could reduce atmospheric CO2 accumulation by replacing fossil fuels and sequestering C. It could also improve soil productivity by C sequestration| and reduce NO3-1 contamination of water by absorbing N lost from fertilizer and agricultural waste if planted in filter strips on adjacent land. The objective of this study was to assess potential impacts of switchgrass on C and N balances by reviewing and synthesizing information from current literature| unpublished data and on-going research. Replacing fossil fuels with switchgrass| or any other biomass| will have a much greater effect on atmospheric CO2 than C sequestration. This is because replacing fossil fuels provides a cumulative effect| while C sequestration offers only a one-time benefit. Furthermore| switchgrass will provide net gains in C sequestration only if it replaces annual row crops| but not if it replaces grazed pasture. Nitrogen recovery by switchgrass in an Alabama study was 65.6%| which compares favorably with the 50% recovery frequently quoted as the norm for wheal (Triticum aestivum L.) and corn (Zea mays L). (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4591,1998,2,3,A simple method to estimate the potential increase in the number of generations under global warming in temperate zones,The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that the global mean surface air temperature will increase about 2 degrees C above the 1990 level by 2100. Such an increase in temperature may result in an increase in the number of generations per year of most insects. Several simulation models have been constructed to predict the increase in the number of generations| but these require a great deal of calculation to obtain estimates for many insect species at various locations under various scenarios of global warming. This paper proposes an analytical method to enable a quick estimation. Two assumptions are used: (1) The developmental rate of insects is approximately given by a linear function of temperature (T)| with a developmental zero (T(0)) and a thermal constant (K). (2) The increase in temperature is approximately even throughout the year. Let m be the current annual mean temperature at a given location| and Delta T the potential increase in temperature under global warming at the location. If the temperature before the Delta T-rise is higher than T(0) in summer and lower than (T(0)-Delta T) in winter| the increase in the number of generations per year| which is denoted by Delta N| is approximately given by Delta N approximate to Delta T[c + d(m - T(0))]/K| where c and d are constants. The validity of the approximation is checked using the "smoothed daily normals" in Japan obtained as a running mean of 15 successive daily normals where a daily normal is defined as the averaged daily temperatures for 30 years from 1960 to 1990. The estimates are c=204.4 and d=12.46. Using this formula| linear isoclines of Delta N are plotted in a graph of T(0) versus K. By plotting the T(0) and K of various insects in this graph| we can estimate the increase in the number of generations under global warming in temperate zones. 4572,1998,4,3,A stochastic model of global atmospheric response to enhanced greenhouse warming with cloud feedback,An atmosphere-ocean climate box model is used to examine the influence of cloud feedback on the change in the climate system's variability in response to enhanced greenhouse warming. The model consists of three nonlinear stochastic differential equations that are simplified forms of the first law of thermodynamics for the atmosphere and ocean and the continuity equation for the atmospheric component of the hydrological cycle. The model is driven by random fluctuations in the mean evaporative flux| which is routed and distributed among the components of the system through the fluxes of energy and moisture. The model suggests that cloud feedback can lead to the occurrence of two climatic regimes into which the present climate may evolve as a result of an enhanced greenhouse warming. In the first regime| the mean values of the model parameters| such as temperature| precipitation and cloudiness| as well as the amplitude and timescale of their fluctuations all increase moderately. In the second regime these mean values increase substantially| and the amplitude and timescale of their fluctuations rise sharply. The model also predicts the existence of climatic hysteresis; that is| for the climate system to return from either of these regimes back to the present regime| a substantial decrease in the long-wave forcing is required. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4487,1998,3,3,A worldwide perspective on energy| environment and sustainable development,Problems with energy supply and use are related not only to global warming| but also to such environmental concerns as air pollution| ozone depletion forest destruction and emission of radioactive substances. These issues must be taken into consideration simultaneously if humanity is to achieve a bright energy future with minimal environmental impacts. Much evidence exists which suggests that the future will be negatively impacted if humans keep degrading the environment. There is an intimate connection between energy| the environment and sustainable development. A society seeking sustainable development ideally must utilize only energy resources which cause no environmental impact (e.g. which release no emissions to the environment). However| since all energy resources lead to some environmental impact| it is reasonable to suggest that some (not all) of the concerns regarding the limitations imposed on sustainable development by environmental emissions and their negative impacts can be in part overcome through increased energy efficiency. A strong relation clearly exists between energy efficiency and environmental impact since| for the same services or products| less resource utilization and pollution is normally associated with higher efficiency processes. Anticipated patterns of future energy use and consequent environmental impact (focusing on acid precipitation| stratospheric ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect) are comprehensively discussed in this paper. Also| some solutions to current environmental issues in terms of energy conservation and renewable energy technologies are identified and some theoretical and practical limitations on increased energy efficiency are explained. The relations between energy and sustainable development| and between the environment and sustainable development| are described| and an illustrative example is presented. Throughout the paper several issues relating to energy| environment and sustainable development are examined from both current and future perspectives. Finally| several conclusions and recommendations are drawn which may be useful to energy scientists and engineers and policy makers. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 4681,1998,3,3,Acid-base reactions leading to fouling and corrosive ionic liquids in the combustion of biomass,Modem solution theories for ionic liquids coupled with a thermodynamic database and a robust computer program for free energy minimization are capable of performing accurate calculations of the total chemistry of the combustion of biomass. The results provide a quantitative description of the chemistries and of the acid-base reactions involved and predict problems due to the formation of fouling and corrosive ionic liquids. A detailed knowledge of the acid-base chemistries involved in the formation of such ionic liquids allows one to solve such problems by the use of additives and helps to improve the efficiency of power production from biomass combustion effluents. Such efficiencies would make biomass more competitive with fossil fuels and allow one to minimize the probable influence of CO2 buildup on global warming. 2364,1998,2,4,Adaptation mechanisms of green plants to environmental stress - The role of plant sterols and the phosphatidyl linolenoyl cascade in the functioning of plants and the response of plants to global climate change,Introduction: Like other organisms| plants have to cope with environmental stress. Escape from stress is limited: Plants are immobile and cannot run away from stressful conditions. Plants may| however| survive extended periods of stress| for example| cold stress during the winter season| (i) as seed (summer annuals) or (ii) alternatively they may survive in a resting stage| dormancy| as in decidous trees or (iii) they tolerate the cold stress in a more active way| as in evergreen conifers. Environmental changes may be perceived by plants in a rather direct way or more indirectly| via signal perception/transduction pathways. As autotrophic organisms| green plants exhibit a direct response to sunlight in the form of the photosynthetic light reaction. Mechanical factors such as air movement and impedance by hard soil layers present further examples in which direct responses of plants to the environment are expected.
2376,1998,4,4,Advanced Earth observing Satellite-II (ADEOS-II): New prospects for global environmental monitoring,A survey has been made of the scientific programme and instrumentation developed for the advanced Earth observing satellite-II (ADEOS-II) to be launched in 1999| in the context;of previous efforts and future research in the fields of global change relevant to problems| such as global climate change (with special emphasis on the global energy and water cycles)| the global carbon cycle (respectively| marine and terrestrial biosphere dynamics)| high-latitude environmental dynamics| natural calamities (earthquakes| tsunami| volcanic eruptions etc.) and other environmental problems. 4634,1998,2,4,Air issues and ecosystem protection| a Canadian national parks perspective,Several case histories illustrate national park air issues and responses in Canada. These examples include: acidification studies and establishment of a multiparticipant monitoring programme at Kejimkujik; studies of smoke at campgrounds in Jasper| La Mauricie and Forillon| its effect on health| and the management of visitors and firewood supply to mitigate these risks; and estimates of emissions from through-traffic in Yoho. From these cases and from reviews of the secondary literature| we can identify air issues that affect the maintenance of ecological integrity in national parks. These issues are: forest fires and smoke management| defining goals for ecosystem restoration; representation of natural regional conditions; visitor health and amenity; acidification; pesticides; eutrophication from airborne nitrates; permafrost melting; and UV-B. In June 1995| an International Air Issues Workshop brought together representatives from Canadian and U.S.| national parks and other selected agencies. They ranked the air issues affecting national parks| producing quite an eclectic list. From the most to least serious issue| they are: acidification| toxics| visibility impairment| W-B| smoke management| oil and gas development| fugitive dust| global warming| overflights| light pollution| noise and odour. Note that atmospheric change is only one among a group of stresses affecting national parks. Of 28 stresses recognized as significant for national parks in 1992| acid precipitation ranked 8th and climate change 23rd| Petrochemicals| 17th| pesticides| 18th and heavy metals| 21st| may be partly airborne. The 1995 workshop made several recommendations applicable to Parks Canada| from which those related to research and monitoring needs have been extracted. The air monitoring needed most by national parks is of suspended particulate and visibility. This is in response to human health and amenity concerns and international treaty obligations. The long-term protection of natural sites in national parks provides opportunities for other agencies to monitor ambient air quality and ecosystem responses| for example through the installation of under-canopy monitoring towers. The air research most needed in national parks is the modelling of natural landscapes and vegetation complexes in response to climate change| This follows from the primary purpose of each national park| to maintain the ecological integrity of an area selected to represent a natural region. The principal air research opportunities for other agencies in national parks are probably intensive instrumentation and sampling over several years to examine the air-vegetation-soil transfers of nutrients| pollutants and radiation. 2321,1998,2,4,An empirical test of Rapoport's rule: Elevational gradients in montane butterfly communities,We examined the response of montane butterflies to a 1300-m elevational gradient in the Toiyabe Range| a mountain range in the central Great Basin. We tested whether elevational ranges of montane butterflies conform to Rapoport's elevational rule (species at higher elevations have greater elevational ranges). We also tested whether the Rapoport-rescue hypothesis (emigrants from higher elevation populations inflate the species richness of lower-elevation sites) could explain the species richness patterns we observed. In addition| we predicted whether global climate change is likely to perturb current elevational gradients in butterfly species richness. Species presence data were collected from 105 100-m vertical elevational bands in 17 canyons. Elevation and species richness were significantly negatively correlated| although species richness peaked at intermediate elevations| and butterflies in species-rich areas had significantly narrower elevational ranges than species in more depauperate areas. Toiyabe Range butterflies conformed to Rapoport's elevational rule. The Rapoport effect we documented did not result from sampling bias. However| the Rapoport-rescue hypothesis cannot fully explain the elevational gradient in species richness. Environmental severity at either end and favorable conditions near the middle of the elevational gradient likely contributed to high species richness at intermediate elevations. Our models indicated that few butterfly taxa will be lost from the Toiyabe Range in the face of climate change. To maintain present species richness and maximize the potential of Great Basin butterflies to adapt to rapid climate change| we recommend that habitat protection and restoration efforts target not only high elevation Wilderness Areas but also intermediate elevations. 2374,1998,2,4,An experimental and modeling study of responses in ecosystems carbon exchanges to increasing CO2 concentrations using a tropical rainforest mesocosm,The ecosystem carbon exchanges in the enclosed rainforest of Biosphere 2| an enclosed apparatus comprised of large synthetic ecosystems| were measured and modeled during the winter of 1995-1996 under different atmospheric CO2 concentrations. On eight separate days| this mesocosm was exposed to various levels of CO2 ranging from about 380 to 820 mu mol mol(-1) daily mean and then sealed 24 hours for continuous measurements of ecosystem CO2 fluxes. Our results indicated that net ecosystem carbon exchange in the mesocosm was enhanced by increasing CO2 over the short periods studied (2-7 weeks)| but| as expected from physiological studies| the response is not linear. The main effect of shortterm CO2 change was the enhancement of canopy CO2 assimilation| while soil respiration was not affected by the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The whole ecosystem radiation use efficiency was significantly higher under higher CO2. The results of direct measurements were predicted well by a simple canopy model (the 'big-leaf' model) that incorporates current physiological understanding of the biochemistry of leaf photosynthesis. Validation of this model with a range of CO2 and light levels indicates that it can be used with confidence to predict the responses of natural ecosystems to global climate change. Response of ecosystem processes to elevated CO2 with relaxation time longer than a few weeks could not be resolved in this study| but longer-term closure experiments are planned to examine these processes. 2348,1998,4,4,An ocean acoustic tomography system with a 200 Hz giant magnetostrictive source,This paper describes tomography equipment for measuring ocean phenomena in a 2000 km(2) area. A 200 Hz giant magnetostrictive source was developed to increase the transmitting level and decrease the source size. Five 200 Hz transceiver systems were constructed with these sources. These systems have surface buoys for real-time data transmission via the INMARSAT-C. Sea tests of the five transceiver systems were conducted east of the Izu-Ogasawara Trench to observe the Kuroshio Extension during July and September 1997. 4655,1998,3,4,Analysis of energy conversion systems| including material and global warming aspects,This paper addresses a method for the overall evaluation of energy conversion systems| including material and global environmental aspects. To limit the scope of the work reported here| the global environmental aspects have been limited to global warming aspects. A method is presented that uses exergy as an overall evaluation measure of energy conversion systems for their lifetime. The method takes the direct exergy consumption (fuel consumption) of the conventional exergy analyses and adds (1) the exergy of the energy conversion system equipment materials| (2) the fuel production exergy and material exergy| and (3) the exergy needed to recover the total global warming gases (equivalent) of the energy conversion system. This total| termed "Total Equivalent Resource Exergy|" (TERE)| provides a measure of the effectiveness of the energy conversion system in its use of natural resources. The results presented here for several example systems illustrate how the method can be used to screen candidate energy conversion systems and perhaps| as data becomes more available| to optimize systems. It appears that this concept may be particularly useful for comparing systems that have quite different direct energy and/or environmental impacts. This work should be viewed in the context of being primarily a "concept" paper in that the lack of detailed data available to the authors at this time limits the accuracy of the overall results. The authors are working on refinements to data used in the evaluation. 2357,1998,4,4,Analysis of some direct and indirect methods for estimating root biomass and production of forests at an ecosystem level,The relationship of global climate change to plant growth and the role of forests as sites of carbon sequestration have encouraged the refinement of the estimates of root biomass and production. However| tremendous controversy exists in the literature as to which is the best method to determine fine root biomass and production. This lack of consensus makes it difficult for researchers to determine which methods are most appropriate for their system. The sequential root coring method was the most commonly used method to collect root biomass data in the past and is still commonly used. But within the last decade the use of minirhizotrons has become a favorite method of many researchers. In addition| due to the high labor-intensive requirements of many of the direct approaches to determine root biomass| there has been a shift to develop indirect methods that would allow fine root biomass and production to be predicted using data on easily monitored variables that are highly correlated to root dynamics. Discussions occur as to which method should be used but without gathering data from the same site using different methods| these discussions can be futile. This paper discusses and compares the results of the most commonly used direct and indirect methods of determining root biomass and production: sequential root coring| ingrowth cores| minirhizotrons| carbon fluxes approach| nitrogen budget approach and correlations with abiotic resources. No consistent relationships were apparent when comparing several sites where at least one of the indirect and direct methods were used on the same site. Until the different root methods can be compared to some independently derived root biomass value obtained from total carbon budgets for systems| one root method cannot be stated to be the best and the method of choice will be determined from researcher's personal preference| experiences| equipment| and/or finances. 4658,1998,3,3,Assessing management options for wastewater treatment works in the context of life cycle assessment,This paper presents the preliminary results of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study comparing different wastewater treatment works| operated by Thames Water Utilities Ltd. in the UK. Fifteen works have been studied| representing a range of size and type of treatment works. Five management regimes for centralising sludge treatment and disposal were analyzed in the context of LCA to provide guidance on choosing the best practicable environmental option (BPEO). Consideration of Global warming potential indicates that the four proposed management regimes with centralisation of sludge for treatment and disposal| as adopted by Thames Water Utilities Ltd.| is an environmental improvement upon the current practice. One of these options| that of complete centralisation and composting of sludge prior to disposal| exerts the least environmental impact with respect to Global warming potential. This suggests that the adoption of composting at Crawley is environmentally preferable to increasing the digestion facility at this works. (C) 1998 IAWQ. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4548,1998,4,4,ATLID: The technology development programme for ESA's satellite-borne atmospheric lidar,The idea of deploying a lidar system on an Earth-orbiting satellite stems from the need for continuously providing profiles of our atmosphereis structure with high resolution and global coverage. Interest in this information for climatology| meteorology and the atmospheric sciences in general is huge. Areas of application range from the determination of global warming and greenhouse effects| to monitoring the transport and accumulation of pollutants in the different atmospheric regions (such as the recent fires in Southeast Asia)| to the assessment of the largely unknown micro-physical properties and the structural dynamics of the atmosphere itself. 4544,1998,2,3,Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: Implications for rainfall rates and climate change,New estimates of the moistening of the atmosphere through evaporation at the surface and of the drying through precipitation are computed. Overall| the e-folding residence time of atmospheric moisture is just over 8 days. New estimates are also made of how much moisture that precipitates out comes from horizontal transport versus local evaporation| referred to as 'recycling'. The results depend greatly on the scale of the domain under consideration and global maps of the recycling for annual means are produced for 500 km scales for which global recycling is 9.6%| consisting of 8.9% over land and 9.9% over the oceans. Even for 1000 km scales| less than 20% of the annual precipitation typically comes from evaporation within the domain. While average overall atmospheric moisture depletion and restoration must balance| precipitation falls only a small fraction of the time. Thus precipitation rates are also examined. Over the United States| one hour intervals with 0.1 mm or more are used to show that the frequency of precipitation ranges from over 30% in the Northwest| to about 20% in the Southeast and less than 4% just east of the continental divide in winter| and from less than 2% in California to over 20% in the Southeast in summer. In midlatitudes precipitation typically falls about 10% of the time| and so rainfall rates| conditional on when rain is falling| are much larger than evaporation rates. The mismatches in the rates of rainfall versus evaporation imply that precipitating systems of all kinds feed mostly on the moisture already in the atmosphere. Over North America| much of the precipitation originates from moisture advected from the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical Atlantic or Pacific a day or so earlier. Increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere produce global warming through an increase in downwelling infrared radiation| and thus not only increase surface temperatures but also enhance the hydrological cycle| as much of the heating at the surface goes into evaporating surface moisture. Global temperature increases signify that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases and| together with enhanced evaporation| this means that the actual atmospheric moisture should increase. It follows that naturally-occurring droughts are likely to be exacerbated by enhanced potential evapotranspiration. Further| globally there must be an increase in precipitation to balance the enhanced evaporation but the processes by which precipitation is altered locally are not well understood. Observations confirm that atmospheric moisture is increasing in many places| for example at a rate of about 5% per decade over the United States. Based on the above results| we argue that increased moisture content of the atmosphere therefore favors stronger rainfall or snowfall events| thus increasing risk of flooding| which is a pattern observed to be happening in many parts of the world. Moreover| because there is a disparity between the rates of increase of atmospheric moisture and precipitation| there are implied changes in the frequency of precipitation and/or efficiency of precipitation (related to how much moisture is left behind in a storm). However| an analysis of linear trends in the frequency of precipitation events for the United States corresponding to thresholds of 0.1 and 1 mm/h shows that the most notable statistically significant trends are for increases in the southern United States in winter and decreases in the Pacific Northwest from November through January| which may be related to changes in atmospheric circulation and storm tracks associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation trends. It is suggested that as the physical constraints on precipitation apply only globally| more attention should be paid to rates in both observations and models as well as the frequency of occurrence. 4573,1998,4,4,Australian temperature| Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation| 1910-1992: coherent variability and recent changes,The best available surface temperature (T) and precipitation (P) records for Australia dating back to 1910 have been examined to look| for coherent interannual variability. P exhibits a tendency to be out of phase with daily maximum temperature| Tmax| and this results in P tending to be out of phase with both the daily average temperature| Tbar (estimated here as the average of Tmax and the daily minimum| Tmin)| and the DTR (diurnal temperature range| Tmax-Tmin). The association between P and Tmin is generally weak. The (expected) increase in P associated with a positive Southern Oscillation Index is (generally) accompanied by reduced average temperatures (Tbar) and a reduced DTR| both of which primarily arise from a reduction in Tmax. When variability in both P and Tmin associated with Tmax is removed| the residual signals (P* and Tmin*) show wide-spread statistically significant positive correlations| consistent with the hypothesis that clouds help to reduce night-tine cooling. These relationships are less clear at near-coastal sites| and absent at the island and exposed coastal sites considered. Results from three separate ten-year integrations of the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre's atmospheric general circulation model were then examined. The tendency for (a) P to be out of phase with Tmax| Tbar and the DTR and (b) P* to be in phase with Tmin* over Australia on interannual time-scales was also generally evident over land elsewhere| except at high latitudes and over North Africa. An analysis of the model's surface heat budget over land showed that this arises from associated surface short wave radiation and latent heating anomalies. The latter is generally more important over low-latitude regions where deep convection occurs| with the hierarchy reversed elsewhere. Evaporative cooling anomalies appear to be dominated by soil moisture changes. Surface long wave radiation| sensible heating and subterranean heat exchange tend to reduce the temperature change which would otherwise occur. Recent changes in some of the relationships exhibited between observed P|T and the Southern Oscillation Index appear unusual in terms of the interdecadal variability evident in the records prior to 1972| and previous conclusions drawn on the basis of 'all-Australia' P and T indices were found to have broad applicability. Interrelationships between recent changes in the 20-year means of P| T and the SOI do not match the changes that might be expected on the basis of their interrelationship on interannual time-scales. Possible reasons for the changes suggested by the analysis (e.g.| global warming and naturally occurring interdecadal climate variability) are discussed. 2326,1998,2,4,Biodiversity of Collembola and their functional role in the ecosystem,More than 6500 species of Collembola are known from throughout the world and these an only a small part of the still undescribed species. There are many checklists and catalogues of Collembola for smaller territories and entire continents. Biogeographical analyses have been made for some genera and smaller territories. The most serious problems for a global biogeographical analysis is the lack of enough records from immense territories of all continents. Local biodiversity of Collembola can be very high| reaching over 100 species in small mountain ranges. Sampling methods do not impede documenting biodiversity on a global scale. Collembola have well differentiated ecomorphological life-forms and Feeding guilds which enable the functional role that Collembola play in ecosystems to be recognised in some degree. Collembola play an important role in plant litter decomposition processes and in forming soil microstructure. They are hosts of many parasitic Protozoa. Nematoda| Trematoda and pathogenic bacteria and in turn are attacked by different predators. They utilise as food Protozoa| Nematoda| Rotatoria| Enchytraeidae| invertebrate carrion| bacteria| fungi| algae| plant litter| live plant tissues| and some plant pathogens. Soil acidification| nitrogen supply| global climate change and intensive farming have greatly impacted collembolan diversity. 2368,1998,2,4,Biodiversity of marine plants in an era of climate change: Some predictions based on physiological performance,There are too few data to allow any confident statements on the effects of global climate change on the diversity of marine plant life. However| on the basis of information available in the literature| it is possible to make predictions about the physiological responses of plants under situations of anticipated increases in CO(2) concentrations| temperature and UV-B fluxes and point out how differences in the responses of major marine plant groups might lead to changes in performance and distribution of these organisms. For instance we may predict that macrophytes such as seagrasses will show enhanced photosynthetic rates and growth as atmospheric CO(2) levels continue to rise whilst many intertidal macroalgae are already at CO(2) saturation and may not show any enhanced performance as CO(2) increases. Decreasing ozone concentrations in the stratosphere will lead to enhanced UV-B fluxes and could consequently favour those species with UV tolerance or repair mechanisms. It has been suggested that interactions between temperature range and photoperiod can be responsible for excluding species from particular regions of the world's oceans. Other species might be affected in this way as temperatures at a given latitude change. Temperature will also influence the relationship between atmospheric and dissolved CO(2) and the proportions of the various components of dissolved inorganic carbon available for growth. Climate change may well have other effects on the efficiency with which marine plants use other resources such as N| Fe or Zn and these will also be discussed. 4676,1998,2,4,Bird migration: Genetic programs with high adaptability,Experiments during the past 20 years have shown that bird migration| especially partial migration| is an extremely adaptable life and survival strategy. With selected species - the Blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) and Redstarts (genus Phoenicurus)- it has been shown that all the basic processes and features of migration| such as migratory drive| migratory disposition and activity| and orientation behaviour| are under direct genetic control. The considerable phenotypic and additive genetic variation in these traits provides a great potential for microevolution. Partial migration - the occurrence of migratoriness and sedentariness within the same population - appears to play a major role: it is a turntable| so to speak| for appropriate adaptations. Extremely widespread at higher latitudes and also common in the tropics| partial migration may be a fundamental pattern of avian behaviour. Its phenotypic dichotomy migrant-nonmigrant is caused by a genetic threshold mechanism| on the basis of which full migratoriness or sedentariness can be selected within a few generations. Since incidence and amount of migratory activity clearly represent a genetically integrated migration syndrome| downward selection of migratory activity in exclusively migratory populations resulting in shorter migration distances would also lead to partial migration. Birds are thus evidently capable of adapting to changing environmental conditions by shifting from almost full sedentariness to exclusive migratoriness and vice versa based on selection. Experimental and field evidence indicates that such a shift can be accomplished in less than 50 years| which makes partial migration a highly adaptive trait. 4602,1998,2,4,Boreal forest plants take up organic nitrogen,Plant growth in the boreal forest| the largest terrestrial biome| is generally limited by the availability of nitrogen. The presumed cause of this limitation is slow mineralization of soil organic nitrogen(1|2). Here we demonstrate| to our knowledge for the first time| the uptake of organic nitrogen in the field by the trees Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies| the dwarf shrub Vaccinium myrtillus and the grass Deschampsia flexuosa. These results show that these plants| irrespective of their different types of root-fungal associations (mycorrhiza)| bypass nitrogen mineralization. A trace of the amino acid glycine| labelled with the stable isotopes C-13 and N-15| was injected into the organic (mor) layer of an old successional boreal coniferous forest. Ratios of C-13:N-15 in the roots showed that at least 91| 64 and 42% of the nitrogen from the absorbed glycine was taken up in intact glycine by the dwarf shrub| the grass and the trees| respectively. Rates of glycine uptake were similar to those of N-15-ammonium. Our data indicate that organic nitrogen is important for these different plants| even when they are competing with each other and with non-symbiotic microorganisms. This has major implications for our understanding of the effects of nitrogen deposition| global warming and intensified forestry. 4515,1998,5,4,Bottom currents| sedimentation and ice-sheet retreat facies successions on the Mac Robertson shelf| East Antarctica,Measurements of water turbidity| currents| seafloor sediment samples and geophysical data document the sedimentary processes and the Late Quaternary sedimentary history of a continental shelf valley system on the East Antarctic continental margin. The valley is up to 1200 m in depth and strikes across the shelf; it is interpreted as having formed by glacial erosion processes; On the outer-shelf sill of the valley| northwestward (offshore) currents with speeds of up to 0.47 m/s referenced to 100 cm above the seabed were recorded over a 10-month period. Such currents are competent to initiate bedload transport of medium sand and formation of small (ripple-sized) bedforms which explains the occurrence of ripple cross-bedding observed in some X-radiographs of cores. A nepheloid layer with concentrations of up to 3.5 mg/l was noted at two stations and the available evidence suggests that density flows resulting from the sea-ice brine-rejection mechanism are competent to entrain shelf bottom sediments episodlically. Sediment cores taken from this environment document the succession of facies resulting from retreat of glacial ice from the shelf during the Holocene transgression. Under low sea-level| glacial conditions| the ice sheet is interpreted to have been grounded on the outer shelf| where it deposited a grounding line moraine. Rising sea level and global warming caused the ice shelf to retreat leaving a sub-ice shelf| glacial-marine mud. This is overlain by a laminated to massively bedded ice-rafted debris-rich facies| interpreted as being deposited at the glacial calving front. Above this is a siliceous mud and ooze facies having a basal age of about 10|000 years BP| characterising modern| open-marine conditions. Two types of iceberg keel marks on the outer part of the shelf valley are recognised from sidescan sonographs: one relict| arcuate type formed during the retreat of the ice shelf prior to 10|000 years BP and a second modern| elongate type that is presently being formed near the shelf break by iceberg grounding processes. This facies succession has been described from other Antarctic shelf environments and is probably representative of facies deposited during Holocene glacial retreat from the Antarctic shelf. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2331,1998,4,4,CAPE variations in the current climate and in a climate change,Observed variations of convective available potential energy (CAPE) in the current climate provide one useful rest of the performance of cumulus parameterizations used in general circulation models (GCMs). It is found that frequency distributions of tropical Pacific CAFE| as well as the dependence of CAFE on surface wet-bulb potential temperature (Theta(w)) simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies's GCM| agree well with that observed during the Australian Monsoon Experiment period| CAFE variability in the current climate greatly overestimates climatic changes in basinwide CAFE in the tropical Pacific in response to a 2 degrees C increase in sea surface temperature (SST) in the GCM because of the different physics involved. In the current climate| CAFE variations in space and time are dominated by regional changes in boundary layer temperature and moisture| which in turn are controlled by SST patterns and large-scale motions. Geographical thermodynamic structure variations in the middle and upper troposphere are smaller because of the canceling effects of adiabatic cooling and subsidence warming in the rising and sinking branches of the Walker and Hadley circulations. In a forced equilibrium global climate change| temperature change is fairly well constrained by the change in the moist adiabatic lapse rate and thus the upper troposphere warms to a greater extent than the surface. For this reason| climate change in CAFE is better predicted by assuming that relative humidity remains constant and that the temperature changes according to the moist adiabatic lapse rate change of a parcel with 80% relative humidity lifted from the surface. The moist adiabatic assumption is not symmetrically applicable to a warmer and colder climate: In a warmer regime moist convection determines the tropical temperature structure| but when the climate becomes colder the effect of moist convection diminishes and the large-scale dynamics and radiative processes become relatively important. Although a prediction based on the change in moist adiabat marches the GCM simulation of climate change averaged over the tropical Pacific basin| it does not match the simulation regionally because small changes in the general circulation change the local boundary layer relative humidity by 1%-2%. Thus| the prediction of regional climate change in CAFE is also dependent on subtle changes in the dynamics. 4671,1998,3,4,Carbon cycle for rapeseed oil biodiesel fuels,The greenhouse effect| thought to be responsible for global warming| is caused by gases accumulating in the earth's atmosphere. Carbon dioxide| which makes up half of the gas accumulation problem| is produced during respiration and combustion processes. This paper provides an outline of the carbon cycle for rapeseed oil-derived fuels. Plant processes| fuel chemistry and combustion are examined with respect to carbon. A diagram is presented to interpret the information presented graphically. A comparison of carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of rapeseed oil biodiesel and petroleum diesel is made. Complete combustion converts hydrocarbon fuels so carbon dioxide and water. The carbon cycle consists of the fixation of carbon and the release of oxygen by plants through the process of photosynthesis| then the recombining of oxygen and carbon to form CO2 through the processes of combustion and respiration. The carbon dioxide released by petroleum diesel was fixed from the atmosphere during the formative years of the earth. Carbon dioxide released by biodiesel is fixed by the plant in a recent year and is recycled. Many scientists believe that global warming is occurring because of the rapid release of CO2 in processes such as the combustion of petroleum diesel. Using biodiesel could reduce the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2323,1998,2,4,Carbon dioxide and methane fluxes by a forest soil under laboratory-controlled moisture and temperature conditions,Carbon dioxide and methane are important greenhouse gases whose exchange rates between soils and the atmosphere are controlled strongly by soil temperature and moisture. We made a laboratory investigation to quantify the relative importance of soil moisture and temperature on fluxes of CO(2) and CH(4) between forest soils and the atmosphere. Forest floor and mineral soil material were collected from a mixed hardwood forest at the Harvard Forest. Long-Term Ecological Research Site (MA) and were incubated in the laboratory under a range of moisture (air-dry to nearly saturated) and temperature conditions (5-25 degrees C). Carbon dioxide emissions increased exponentially with increasing temperature in forest floor material| with emissions reduced at the lowest and highest soil moisture contents. The forest floor Q(10) of 2.03 (from 15-25 degrees C) suggests that CO(2) emissions were controlled primarily by soil biological activity. Forest floor CO(2) emissions were predicted with a multiple polynomial regression model (r(2) = 0.88) of temperature and moisture| but the fit predicting mineral soil respiration was weaker (r(2) = 0.59). Methane uptake was controlled strongly by soil moisture| with reduced fluxes under conditions of very low or very high soil moisture contents. A multiple polynomial model accurately described CH(4) uptake by mineral soil material (r(2) = 0.81)| but only weakly (r(2) = 0.45) predicted uptake by forest floor material. The mineral soil Q(10) of 1.11 for CH(4) uptake indicates that methane uptake is controlled primarily by physical processes. Our work suggests that inclusion of both moisture and temperature can improve predictions of soil CO(2) and CH(4) exchanges between soils and the atmosphere. Additionally| global change models need to consider interactions of temperature and moisture in evaluating effects of global climate change on trace gas fluxes. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4501,1998,2,4,Carbon dioxide fluxes in moist and dry arctic tundra during season: Responses to increases in summer temperature and winter snow accumulation,Climate-induced environmental changes are likely to have pronounced impacts on CO2 flux patterns in arctic ecosystems. We initiated a long-term experiment in 1994 in moist tussock and dry heath tundra in arctic Alaska in which we increased summer air temperature (ca. 2 degrees C) and increased winter snow accumulation (shortening the growing season approximately 4 wk). During the 1996 snow-free season| we measured ecosystem CO2 flux weekly in order to quantify net carbon gain or loss from these systems. Over the duration of the snow-free season| both dry heath and moist tussock tundra exhibited a net loss of carbon to the atmosphere| ranging from 12 to 81 g C m(-2) depending upon experimental treatment. Elevated summer temperatures accelerated net CO2 loss rates over ambient temperatures in both deep and ambient snow treatments| and increased the total amount of carbon emitted during the snow-free season by 26 to 38% in ambient snow plots and by 112 to 326% in deep snow plots. Increased snow accumulation had less impact on CO2 flux than did warming| and snow effects on total carbon loss were not consistent between the two temperature regimes. Ecosystem respiration exceeded assimilation on most sampling dates throughout the season. These data| coupled with winter carbon losses recently demonstrated in the same ecosystems| indicate that the moist and dry arctic ecosystems we examined are currently net sources of atmospheric carbon on an annual basis| and that anticipated global warming may increase carbon losses from these systems. 4538,1998,4,3,Carbon in the vegetation and soils of Northern Ireland,The amount of carbon stored in vegetation and soils (including peat) in Northern Ireland has been estimated and the distributions mapped on a 1 km x 1 km grid as part of a national inventory. This was funded by Government to help meet some of its commitments under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Knowing the sizes of the carbon stores (reservoirs) and the factors influencing them will help in developing policies to protect and enhance them as a contribution to the amelioration of global warming. To calculate these carbon stores| the area and carbon density of each vegetation and soil type were required. Similar data sources and methods were used to those in complementary inventories in Great Britain| but modifications were required ill Northern Ireland| including the use of CORINE land cover (classification and maps) and the development of a soil carbon database. The total amount of carbon stored is estimated to be 4.4Mt in vegetation (5.1Mt| allowing for forests underestimated by CORINE) and 386Mt in soils. Forests account for 55% of the carbon in vegetation| and peat for 42% of: that in soils-a product of their relatively high carbon densities. 4525,1998,4,4,Carbon isotopic analysis of atmospheric methane in urban and suburban areas: Fossil and non-fossil methane from local sources,The carbon isotopic composition (C-12| C-13 and C-14) of atmospheric CH4 was studied to estimate CH4 sources in local areas. In urban areas of Nagoya| Japan (35 degrees 10'N| 136 degrees 55'E)| where there is much anthropogenic influence| evidence of methane release into the atmosphere has been reported. Variations in the carbon isotopic composition were analyzed with diurnal fluctuation of atmospheric CH4 concentration| since the diurnal increase in the CH4 concentration is attributed mainly to release from local sources. In November and December 1993| the contribution of fossil CH| to local CH| released from the urban area was calculated to be 102 +/- 8%| and delta(13)C was -40.8 +/- 3.0 parts per thousand. Leakage of supplied natural gas and exhaust gas from automobiles would he important CH| sour;es in the urban area in late autumn to winter. In suburban areas ill Japan there are many rice paddy fields| and these are one kind of major anthropogenic source of atmospheric CH4. In a suburban area of Nagoya fossil| CH4 contributed to less than 10% of local release in July and august 1994. The calculated value of delta(13)C for non-fossil CH4 was approximately - 65 parts per thousand| which is within the range of reported values of delta(13)C for CH4 derived from bacterial CH4 sources such as irrigated rice paddies. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4505,1998,2,4,Changes in a North Carolina reef fish community after 15 years of intense fishing - Global warming implications,A North Carolina reef fish community was resurveyed with scuba gear to determine if changes occurred in community structure after 15 years of intense fishing. Generally| fishes important in the recreational and commercial fisheries were smaller. and large changes occurred in relative abundance and species composition. Indicative of a warming trend| total species corn position of fishes had become more tropical| and a tropical sponge previously unrecorded at this latitude off the North Carolina coast became common. Two new (to the area) families and 29 new species of tropical fishes were recorded. Observations of 28 species of tropical reef fishes increased significantly. No new temperate species were observed| and the most abundant temperate species decreased by a factor of 22. Mean monthly bottom water temperatures in winter were 1-6 degrees C warmer during the recent study. An increase in fish-cleaning symbiosis was especially noticeable. 2351,1998,3,4,Changes in soil carbon following afforestation in Hawaii,Afforestation in the tropics may sequester soil C and has been proposed as a management tool to aid in controlling rising levels of atmospheric CO2. We measured changes in soil C following afforestation of sugarcane fields with fast-growing Eucalyptus saligna (Sm.) plantations in Hawaii. Using stable C isotopes| we estimated the contributions to changes in total soil C that were due to the loss of C from the prior cane cultivation| and to the gain of C from the new Eucalyptus plantations. Total soil C 10-13 yr after afforestation was 114 and 113 Mg/ha| respectively| in the Eucalyptus and cane plantation. Eucalyptus increased total soil C in the 0-10 cm layer by 11.5 Mg/ha| but that was offset by a loss of 10.1 Mg/ha of cane-derived C from the 10-55 cm layer. The net effect on soil C of afforestation of cultivated lands depends not only on new C gained| but also on C lost from the previous management. 4608,1998,4,2,Changing concentration| lifetime and climate forcing of atmospheric methane,Previous studies on ice core analyses and recent in situ measurements have shown that CH(4) has increased from about 0.75 to 1.73 mu mol/mol during the past 150 years. Here| we review sources and sink estimates and we present global 3D model calculations| showing that the main features of the global CH(4) distribution are well represented. The model has been used to derive the total CH(4) emission source| being about 600 Tg yr(-1). Based on published results of isotope measurements the total contribution of fossil fuel related CHI emissions has been estimated to be about 110 Tg yr(-1). However| the individual coal| natural gas and oil associated CH(4) emissions can not be accurately quantified. In particular natural gas and oil associated emissions remain speculative. Since the total anthropogenic CH(4) source is about 410 Tg yr(-1) (similar to 70% of the total source) and the mean recent atmospheric CH(4) increase is similar to 20 Tg yr(-1) an anthropogenic source reduction of 5% could stabilize the atmospheric CH(4) level. We have calculated the indirect chemical effects of increasing CH(4) on climate forcing on the basis of global 3D chemistry-transport and radiative transfer calculations. These indicate an enhancement of the direct radiative effect by about 30%| in agreement with previous work The contribution of CH(4) (direct and indirect effects) to climate forcing during the past 150 years is 0.57 W m(-2) (direct 0.44 W m(-2)| indirect 0.13 W m(-2)). This is about 35% of the climate forcing by CO(2) (1.6 W m(-2)) and about 22% of the forcing by all long-lived greenhouse gases (2.6 W m(-2)). Scenario calculations (IPCC-IS92a) indicate that the CH(4) lifetime in the atmosphere increased by about 25-30% during the past 150 years to a current value of 7.9 years. Future lifetime changes are expected to be much smaller| about 6%| mostly due to the expected increase of tropospheric O(3) (-->OH) in the tropics. The global mean concentration of CH(4) may increase to about 2.55 mu mol/mol| its lifetime is expected to increase to 8.4 years in the year 2050. Further| we have calculated a CH(4) global warming potential (GWP) of 21 (kgCH(4)/kgCO(2)) over a time horizon of 100 years| in agreement with IPCC (1996). Scenario calculations indicate that the importance of the climate forcing by CH(4) (including indirect effects) relative to that of CO(2) will decrease in future; currently this is about 35%| while this is expected to decrease to about 15% in the year 2050. 4587,1998,2,3,Changing waves and storms in the northeast Atlantic?,The European project WASA (Waves and Storms in the North Atlantic) has been set up to verify or disprove hypotheses of a worsening storm and wave climate in the northeast Atlantic and its adjacent seas in the present century. Its main conclusion is that the storm and wave climate in most of the northeast Atlantic and in the North Sea has undergone significant variations on timescales of decades; it has indeed roughened in recent decades| but the present intensity of the storm and wave climate seems to be comparable with that at the beginning of this century. Part of this variability is found to be related to the North Atlantic oscillation. An analysis of a high-resolution climate change experiment| mimicking global warming due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations| results in a weak increase of storm activity and (extreme) wave heights in the Bay of Biscay and in the North Sea| while storm action and waves slightly decrease along the Norwegian coast and in most of the remaining North Atlantic area. A weak increase in storm surges in the southern and eastern part of the North Sea is expected. These projected anthropogenic changes at the time of CO2 doubling fall well within the limits of variability observed in the past. A major methodical obstacle for the assessment of changes in the intensity of storm and wave events are inhomogeneities in the observational record| both in terms of local observations and of analyzed products (such as weather maps)| which usually produce an artificial increase of extreme winds. This occurs because older analyses were based on fewer observations and with more limited conceptual and numerical models of the dynamical processes than more recent analyses. Therefore the assessment of changes in storminess is based on local observations of air pressure and high-frequency variance at tide gauges. Data of this sort is available for 100 yr and sometimes more. The assessment of changes in the wave climate is achieved using a two-step procedure; first a state-of-the-art wave model is integrated with 40 yr of wind analysis; the results are assumed to be reasonably homogeneous in the area south of 70 degrees N and east of 20 degrees W; then a regression is built that relates monthly mean air pressure distributions to intramonthly percentiles of wave heights at selected locations with the help of the 40-yr simulated data; finally| observed monthly mean air pressure fields from the beginning of this century are fed into the regression model to derive best guesses of wave statistics throughout the century. 2327,1998,2,4,Chaos in the Pacific's coral reef bleaching cycle,There is no simple explanation for the unusual increase in coral reef bleaching events that have been occurring on a global scale over the last 2 decades. Recent studies focusing on this problem reveal that mass bleaching events have a strong periodic component| arising every similar to 3-4 yr in step with the El Nino climatic phenomenon. To explore this possibility further| we examine a simple oceanographic-ecological model designed to simulate the warm and cool phases of the Pacific Ocean cycle and gauge its effect on local coral reefs. This allows us to identify causes for localized "hot spots" in the ocean| whose high sea surface temperatures have disastrous consequences for corals. The underlying wave dynamics of the model lead to chaotic oscillations (every similar to 3-4 yr)| which help explain the coexistence of both order and irregularity in the dynamics of mass bleaching. The model makes use of a temperature threshold mechanism-a bleaching event is triggered whenever temperature anomalies exceed a critical level. In a variable environment| the threshold mechanism is sensitive to background fluctuations| and their effects are studied by making use of a "stochastic resonance" formulation. Global climate change and other trends in external background environmental conditions are all shown to strongly influence the distribution of mass coral bleaching events. 4518,1998,2,4,Characteristics of energy and water budgets over wet sedge and tussock tundra ecosystems at North Slope in Alaska,Energy budgets were measured at Arctic tundra ecosystems in Alaska| USA. Measurements were carried out over coastal tundra at Prudhoe Bay in 1994| and at wet sedge| moist and dry tussock tundra around Happy Valley in 1995. Sensible heat flux| H| and latent heat flux| lE| were determined by an eddy correlation technique. Over the Arctic coastal tundra| the energy partition changed remarkably as a result of air mass conditions. Under cold and humid wild (onshore) from the Arctic Ocean| the temperature gradient over the tundra ecosystem increased| which resulted in a high level of H. Under warm and dry air mass on clear days from the inland tundra (offshore)| air and soil temperatures and the water vapour deficit increased| which resulted in an increase in lE. The same effect or air mass condition on energy partition was observed at the tundra ecosystem in Happy Valley located 135 km inland from the Arctic coast. The energy budget at wet sedge tundra was characterized as the heat storage within the water layer on a daily basis| which was partitioned mainly to lE in daytime and lE and H at night. Latent heat flux| lE| was largest at wet sedge tundra and lowest at dry tussock tundra. The Bowen ratio decreased with air temperature over wet sedge and dry tussock tundra ecosystems. The aerodynamic resistance r(a)| and canopy resistance| r(c)| over the wet sedge tundra at Happy Valley had different levels over four major wind directions. These levels decreased with increase in wind speed. r(a) was slightly higher than over other vegetation| which seemed to be owing to a relatively lower wind speed| while the canopy resistance r(c) was lower than over other vegetation. Global warming will affect the energy partition of the Arctic tundra ecosystem| and the warming and drying climate will increase the lE of tundra| especially in flooded areas. Expanding dry tundra increases H rather than lE| which enhances the warming of the tundra ecosystem. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 2367,1998,5,4,Chemical weathering in a tropical watershed| Luquillo mountains| Puerto Rico: I. Long-term versus short-term weathering fluxes,The pristine Rio Icacos watershed in the Luquillo Mountains in eastern Puerto Rico has the fastest documented weathering rate of silicate rocks on the Earth's surface. A regolith propagation rate of 58 m Ma(-1)| calculated from iso-volumetric saprolite formation from quartz diorite| is comparable to the estimated denudation rate (25-50 Ma(-1)) but is an order of magnitude faster than the global average weathering rate (6 Ma(-1)). Weathering occurs in two distinct environments; plagioclase and hornblende react at the saprock interface and biotite and quartz weather in the overlying thick saprolitic regolith. These environments produce distinctly different water chemistries| with K| Mg| and Si increasing linearly with depth in saprolite porewaters and with stream waters dominated by Ca| Na| and Si. Such differences are atypical of less intense weathering in temperate watersheds. Porewater chemistry in the shallow regolith is controlled by closed-system recycling of inorganic nutrients such as K. Long-term elemental fluxes through the regolith (e.g.| Si = 1.7 x 10(-8)moles m(-2) s(-1)) are calculated from mass losses based on changes in porosity and chemistry between the regolith and bedrock and from the age of the regolith surface (200 Ma). Mass losses attributed to solute fluxes are determined using a step-wise infiltration model which calculates mineral inputs to the shallow and deep saprolite porewaters and to stream water. Pressure heads decrease with depth in the shallow regolith (-2.03 m H(2)O m(-1))| indicating that both increasing capillary tension and graviometric potential control porewater;infiltration. Interpolation of experimental hydraulic conductivities produces an infiltration rate of 1 m yr(-1) at average field moisture saturation which is comparable with LiBr tracer tests and with base discharge from the watershed. Short term weathering fluxes calculated from solute chemistries and infiltration rates (e.g.| Si = 1.4 x 10(-8) moles m(-2) s(-1)) are compared to watershed flux rates (e.g.| Si = 2.7 x 10(-8) moles m(-2) s(-1)). Consistency between three independently determined sets of weathering fluxes imply that possible changes in precipitation| temperature| and vegetation over the last several hundred thousand years have not significantly impacted weathering rates in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. This has important ramifications for tropical environments and global climate change. Copyright (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. 4613,1998,2,4,Chronic exposure of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) to simulated climate warming and sublethal ammonia: a year-long study of their appetite| growth| and metabolism,This study was conducted to assess| over the thermal cycle of an entire year| the effects (on appetite| growth| and metabolism) of a chronic small temperature increase (+2 degrees C) and sublethal ammonia (70 mu mol.L-1) on rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Juvenile rainbow trout (approximate to 11 g initially) were exposed for 14 months to four treatments: the natural water temperature cycle of the inshore region of Lake Ontario| this cycle +2 degrees C to simulate a global warming scenario| and these temperature cycles in the presence of an additional 70 mu mol total ammonia.L-1 (NH3 range: 0.005-0.013 mg.L-1). The additional +2 degrees C substantially increased appetite over winter| significantly elevating specific growth rates. These gains were lost| however| over summer due to suppression of appetite and growth at high temperature. Ammonia alone tended to elevate growth| but the combination of +2 degrees C and ammonia resulted in a general decrease in the activity of enzymes involved in nitrogen metabolism (alanine aminotransferase| aspartate aminotransferase| glutamate dehydrogenase| and glutamine synthetase). These results document the dramatic influence of a +2 degrees C warming scenario on the growth and feeding metabolism of juvenile rainbow trout. Moreover| the data indicate that a chronic small temperature increase| together with low-level ammonia pollution| substantially alters protein dynamics| and hence growth| in juvenile freshwater fishes; juvenile rainbow trout without thermal refuge will experience an increase in t a warmer| more polluted environment. 4586,1998,4,4,Cirrus cloud simulation using explicit microphysics and radiation. Part II: Microphysics| vapor and ice mass budgets| and optical and radiative properties,The 2D/3D cloud model complex with explicit microphysics and radiation described in Part I is used to simulate the development of a midlatitude cirrus cloud? including interaction with radiation. To account for the effects of the interaction of various scales of motion on cloud development| a synoptic-scale vertical velocity field is superimposed on the mesoscale velocity field generated by the model| mimicking the effects of an upper-level shortwave trough. The main results under the conditions simulated here are the following. Cirrus cloud growth is much slower than assumed previously| because the process of vapor deposition to ice crystals is far from instantaneous: the crystal phase relaxation time (i.e.| the characteristic time of vapor absorption by crystals) takes 0.5-2.0 h. Even after 1 h of cloud development| supersaturation with respect to ice can remain 5%-10%| while the condensed ice is only 40%-60% of the amount that would be realized assuming that all excess vapor is transformed into ice in typical model time steps. Although experimental and theoretical studies have produced widely divergent longwave mass absorption coefficients alpha(m)(abs)| ranging from 100 to 3500 cm(2) g(-1)| model results show that a single "representative" value of alpha(m)(abs) is inappropriate. Vertical profiles typically exhibit values of similar to 800-1000 cm(2) g(-1) in the upper cloud region containing the smallest particles| in contrast to similar to 100-300 cm(2) g(-1) for the larger crystals in the main cloud. The optical scattering coefficients behave similarly| with typical values of similar to 2000-2500 cm(2) g(-1) in the upper cloud regions and similar to 300-500 cm(2) g(-1) in the lower cloud regions. A strong horizontal variability is also a characteristic feature of these coefficients. Many GCM and climate models use seemingly overestimated alpha(m)(abs) values (e.g.| 1000 cm(2) g(-1)). Sensitivity tests show that the use of such values increases cooling in the upper cloud and heating in the lower cloud| which can lead to an unwarranted increase in upper-tropospheric static instability. The postulated effects of the positive feedbacks between clouds and greenhouse gas-induced global warming would likely be different in magnitude (or in sign) if the more realistic approach of using cloud microstructure-dependent absorption and scattering coefficients could be adopted. Consideration of microphysics also shows that the decrease in the shortwave radiative balance (albedo effect) in the simulated midlatitude cirrus cloud exceeds the net gain in the longwave balance (greenhouse effect) near midday| due to the abundance of relatively small crystals in the upper cloud region where cloud regeneration is taking place. 4577,1998,2,3,Climate change and its impacts on glaciers and permafrost in the Alps,Climate change in the European Alps during the 20th century has been characterized by increases in minimum temperatures of about 2 degrees C| a more modest increase in maximum temperatures| little trend in precipitation data| and a general decrease of sunshine duration through to the mid-1980s. Temperature increase has been most intense in the 1940s| followed by the 1980s. The warming experienced since the early 1980s| while synchronous with the global warming| is of far greater amplitude and reaches close to 1 degrees C for this ensemble average and up to 2 degrees C for individual sites. Such changes caused pronounced effects in the glacial and periglacial belts. Since the middle of the past century-the end of the Little Ice Age-the glacierization of the European Alps has lost about 30 to 40% in surface area and around half its original volume. The estimated total glacier volume in the European Alps was some 130 km(3) for the mid-1970s| but strongly negative mass balances have caused an additional loss of about 10 to 20% of this remaining ice volume since 1980. Periglacial permafrost in the Alps today occupies an area comparable to the glacierized area and must have been affected as well| but its secular evolution is much less well known. Simulations of high-resolution climatologies for double-CO(2) situations using regional climate models (RCM) with a 20-km horizontal grid give generally higher winter temperatures| a more marked increase in summer temperatures| indications that temperature increases more at higher elevations than at lower altitudes| and higher/ more intense precipitation in winter| but much dryer conditions in summer. Under such conditions| the Alps would lose major parts of their glacier cover within decades| warming of cold firn areas at high altitudes could become pronounced and lower limits of permafrost occurrence in the Alps could rise by several hundred meters. Pronounced disequilibria could result| in the water cycle| in mass wasting processes| and in sediment flux as well as in growth conditions of vegetation. For those directly involved with such changes| the main challenge would be to adapt to high and accelerating rates of environment evolution. Empirical knowledge would have to be replaced increasingly by improved process understanding| especially concerning runoff formation and slope stability. In view of the uncertainties involved with future projections| highest priority should be given to appropriate monitoring programs. 4649,1998,4,2,Climate change| the enhanced greenhouse effect and the influence of the sun: A statistical analysis,Changes in solar activity are regularly forwarded as an hypothesis to explain the observed global warming over the last century. The support of such claims is largely statistical| as knowledge of the physical relationships is limited. The statistical evidence is revisited. Changing solar activity is a statistically plausible hypothesis for the observed warming| if short-term natural variability is the only alternative explanation. Compared to the enhanced greenhouse effect| the solar hypothesis looses a substantial part of its plausibility. Reversely| the size and significance of the estimated impact of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the global mean temperature is hardly affected by solar activity. 2340,1998,2,4,Climate change| tick-borne encephalitis and vaccination needs in Sweden - a prediction model,A future| global| climate change may indirectly lead to changes in the transmission and incidence of several vector-borne diseases. This paper presents an example of a modeling tool for projections of possible changes in the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE)| and the subsequent changes in vaccination needs| during the next half-century in Sweden. The model is based on the Hadley Center's regional temperature predictions for the year 2050| taking into account the IPCC IS92 'non-intervention scenario'. The model has been constructed into STELLA| a graphical dynamic-simulation| soft-ware program. The model project an increase in TEE incidence in Stockholm County| a high-endemic region in Sweden| during the next 50 years. According to this simplified model| the annual vaccination rate need to increase by 3-4-fold during the next half century in order to prevent the projected increases in TEE incidence in the region from a climatic change. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2318,1998,5,4,Climatic and tectonic implications of the late Miocene Jakokkota flora| Bolivian Altiplano,When compared to a database of modern foliar physiognomy and climate| the physiognomy of a new collection of dicotyledonous leaves from the 10.66 +/- 0.06 Ma Jakokkota flora| Bolivian Altiplano| implies a mean annual temperature (MAT) of 18.6-21.0 +/- 2.5 degrees C. Similarly| a literature-derived sample of the early-middle Miocene Potosi flora| Cordillera Oriental| implies a MAT of 21.5-21.7 +/- 2.1 degrees C. We estimate that both floras experienced a growing season precipitation of 50 +/- 40 cm. The paleoclimate thus appears considerably warmer than the current highland climate| with MATs of 8-9 degrees C; the paleoprecipitation is indistinguishable from modern levels. A comparison of the Miocene MATs with the modern MATs| with the effects of latitudinal continental drift and global climate change subtracted| suggests that the Jakokkota flora grew at an elevation of 590-1610 +/- 1000 m| and the Potosi flora grew at an elevation of 0-1320 +/- 1000 m. Both paleoelevation estimates are significantly lower than the present elevations of 3940 and 4300 m| respectively| requiring a substantial component of Andean uplift since 10.7 Ma. This uplift history is consistent with two-stage tectonic models of Andean orogeny. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2333,1998,2,4,Climatic warming and its effect on bud burst and risk of frost damage to white spruce in Canada,Temperature data from ten weather stations across Canada were used to model the effects of climate warming on the timing of bud burst and the risk of frost damage to white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss). There was evidence of increasingly earlier dates of bud break over the course of this century at half of the stations examined (Amos and Brome| Quebec; Cochrane| Ontario; Fort Vermilion| Alberta; and Woodstock| New Brunswick)| with the period 1981 to 1988 having the earliest predicted dates of bud burst (earliest degree day accumulation). Risk of frost damage at most stations in the 1980s was usually greater than in earlier periods. Weather data modelled for climate warming of 5 degrees C predicts that bud burst will occur two to four weeks sooner than was the case during 1961 to 1980 at all stations| but that this will generally be accompanied by decreased risk of frost after bud burst. However| while the expected trend is one of reduced frost risk in the future| as the climate gradually warms frost risk is expected to fluctuate upward or downward depending on interactions between provenance and local climate. 2339,1998,4,4,Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES): Algorithm overview,The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is part of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS)| CERES objectives include the following. 1) For climate change analysis| provide a continuation of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) record of radiative fluxes at the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA)| analyzed using the same techniques as the existing ERBE data. 2) Double the accuracy of estimates of radiative fluxes at TOA and the earth's surface; 3) Provide the first long-term global estimates of the radiative fluxes within the earth's atmosphere. 4) Provide cloud property estimates collocated in space and time that are consistent with the radiative fluxes from surface to TOA| In order to accomplish these goals| CERES uses data from a combination of spaceborne instruments: CERES scanners| which are an improved version of the ERBE broadband radiometers| and collocated cloud spectral imager data on the same spacecraft. The CERES cloud and radiative flux data products should prove extremely useful in advancing the understanding of cloud-radiation interactions| particularly cloud feedback effects on the earth's radiation balance| For this reason| the CERES data should be fundamental to our ability to understand| detect| and predict global climate change| CERES results should also be very useful for studying regional climate changes associated with deforestation| desertification anthropogenic aerosols| and El Nino/Southern Oscillation events. This overview summarizes the Release 2 version of the planned CERES data products and data analysis algorithms. These algorithms are a prototype for the system that will produce the scientific data required for studying the role of clouds and radiation in the earth's climate system. This release will produce a data processing system designed to analyze the first CERES data| planned for launch on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997| followed by the EOS morning (EOS-AM1) platform in 1998. 4597,1998,3,4,CO2-heat pump water heater: characteristics| system design and experimental results,CO2 is one of the few non-toxic and non-flammable working fluids that do not contribute to ozone depletion or global warming| if leaked to the atmosphere. Tap water heating is one promising application for a trans-critical CO2 process. The temperature glide at heat rejection contributes to a very good temperature adaptation when heating tap water| which inherits a large temperature glide. This| together with efficient compression and good heat transfer characteristics of CO2| makes it possible to design very efficient systems. A heating-COP of 4.3 is achieved for the prototype when heating tap water from 9 degrees C to 60 degrees C| at an evaporation temperature of 0 degrees C| The results lead to a seasonal performance factor of about 4 for an Oslo climate| using ambient air as heat source. Thus| the primary energy consumption can be reduced with more than 75% compared with electrical or gas fired systems. Another significant advantage of this system| compared with conventional heat pump water heaters| is that hot water with temperatures up to 90 degrees C can be produced without operational difficulties. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 4497,1998,3,4,Cocurrent biological nitrification and denitrification in wastewater treatment,Repetitive conditioning of recycle activated sludge IRAS) under strict anaerobic conditions gradually changes the products of ammonia oxidation from nitrite and nitrate to nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitrogen (N-2) Nitrite inhibits oxygen respiration of anaerobically conditioned sludge; biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) is then oxidized by nitrite| which is reduced to N2O and N-2. When anerobic RAS conditioning is initially imposed on a nitrifying system| Nitrobacter species continue to oxidize nitrite to nitrate and thus reduce the nitrite available to oxidize BOD. However| Nitrobacter in the mixed liquor gradually tend to wash out because the sole source of Nitrobacter energy| the oxidation of nitrite to nitrate| is diminished to the extent that nitrite is reduced. Incorporation of an RAS conditioning zone to the activated-sludge process results in evolution of a nonfilamentous biomass| which affects both cocurrent biological nitrification and denitrification (CBND) and biological phosphorus removal (BPR). The initial feed zone may be either aerobic or anaerobic. A final anoxic denitrification zone is desirable for removal of residual nitrite plus nitrate (NOx) from aeration effluent. Nitrous oxide| the main reaction product of CBND| promotes both global warming and destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer. 2347,1998,4,4,Combustion in natural fires and global emissions budgets,Fires in tropical savannas are a principal source of emissions to the atmosphere| but there are few studies of retention in ash and residual plant mass following natural fires. Estimates of carbon and nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere from biomass burning have relied largely on indirect measures from laboratory incineration. Emissions from incinerated samples are then extrapolated to areally extensive field estimates of flammable plant biomass. In addition| both direct sampling of smoke plumes and comparison to ambient atmospheric samples| with combustion efficiency estimated by ratios of trace gases to carbon dioxide in plumes| are employed. To the extent that combustion in natural fires departs from laboratory burning or that assumed average standing crops are inaccurate| indirect estimates based on laboratory emissions will be in error. Similarly| the relation of emission ratios to natural fire intensity is poorly understood and will influence the accuracy of estimates based on plume sampling. Recently| data from the Southern African Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative (SAFARI) has indicated that indirect methods can overestimate the proportion of biomass combusted in natural fires. However| how combustion is related to fire temperature is quantitatively unknown. Studies of combustion efficiency in natural fires| as the proportion of initial biomass actually volatilized| are rare| and we know of no estimates of mass and N retention in residual ash and partially combusted biomass that are related to fire temperature. We burned plots instrumented with thermocouples to measure fire temperature and analyzed biomass from adjacent clipped plots| residual post-fire plant residue| and ash to determine the proportion of biomass actually burned and N volatilized. Data from experimental savanna grassland fires under natural conditions in Serengeti National Park indicate that (1) the proportions of mass and N volatilized are substantially less than 100%| (2) most fuel loads are within a range where combustion and volatilization are highly dependent on mass burned and resultant fire intensity| (3) proportionally more N than mass is volatilized| particularly as fire intensity increases| but (4) much less mass and N are volatilized in natural fires than laboratory estimates suggest. Therefore| (5) obtaining accurate estimates of emissions from natural fires will be substantially more difficult than is reflected in current methodology. 4498,1998,4,4,Comment on "Does the correlation between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures rule out any significant global warming from greenhouse gases?" by Peter Laut and Jesper Gundermann,Currently there are two different views about the cause of the recently observed global warming. These opinions are the widely accepted concept of the influence of greenhouse gases and the notion of the solar impact on the terrestrial climate. Some difficulties arising from a statistical treatment of solar-terrestrial time series are discussed. It is stated that neither of the contrary positions relating to the global warming problem are in a position to claim that they possess the only truth. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4639,1998,2,4,Comparing heat stress effects on male-fertile and male-sterile tomatoes,To separate the effects of heat stress on male and female reproductive tissues| male-sterile (MSs) and male-fertile tomatoes (MFs) were placed in growth chambers at 12 h day/12 h night temperatures of 28/22| 30/24 or 32/26 degrees C from newer appearance to seed maturation (daily mean temperatures of 25| 27 or 29 degrees C). pollen from MFs was applied individually to MS flowers. As MFs were self-pollinated| heat stress was experienced by both male and female tissues. At growth temperatures of 29 degrees C fruit number| fruit weight per plant| and seed number per fruit were only 10%| 6.4% and 16.4%| respectively| compared with those at 25 degrees C| Heat stress also adversely affected fruitset in MSs| especially when experienced by donor pollen. No fruit at all developed on MSs receiving pollen produced at 29 degrees C| even when ovule development| pollen germination and subsequent embryo development all took place at 25 degrees C| Effects on fruitset in MSs were reduced if donor pollen had not experienced heat stress. MSs grown at 29 degrees C but receiving pollen developing at 25 degrees C produced 73% as much fruit (both on number and weight basis)| had 40% as high fruitset and produced 87% of the seed per fruit as MSs grown at 25 degrees C| This use of male-sterile and male-fertile lines of tomato provides new evidence that impairment of pollen and anther development by elevated temperature will be an important contributing factor to decreased fruit set in tomato| and possibly other crops| with global warming. 2358,1998,2,4,Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change,Climate factors influence the transmission of dengue fever| the world's most widespread vector-borne virus. We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on dengue transmission using computer-based simulation analysis to link temperature output from three climate general circulation models (GCMs) to a dengue vectorial capacity equation. Our outcome measure| epidemic potential| is the reciprocal of the critical mosquito density threshold of the vectorial capacity equation. An increase in epidemic potential indicates that a smaller number of mosquitoes can maintain a state of endemicity of disease where dengue virus is introduced. Baseline climate data for comparison are from 1931 to 1980. Among the three GCMs| the average projected temperature elevation was 1.16 degrees C| expected by the year 2050. All three GCMs projected a temperature-related increase in potential seasonal transmission in five selected cities| as well as an increase in global epidemic potential| with the largest area change occurring in temper ate regions. For regions already at risk| the aggregate epidemic potential across the three scenarios rose on average between 31 and 47% (range| 24-74%). If climate change occurs| as many climatologists believe| this will increase the epidemic potential of dengue-carrying mosquitoes| given viral introduction and susceptible human populations. Our risk assessment suggests that increased incidence map first occur in regions bordering: endemic zones in latitude or altitude. Endemic locations may be at higher risk from hemorrhagic dengue if transmission intensity increases. 4499,1998,3,3,Development of CO2 recovery technology from combustion flue gas,As a countermeasure for global warming| the development of CO2 recovery technology from fossil fuel power plant flue gas has continued. MEA processes are widely used for CO2 recovery from combustion flue gas in beverage use| etc. However| ii we consider power plant scale CO2 recovery| the biggest theme is the reduction of energy needed to recover CO2. Our presentation focuses in sterically hindered amines and a new absorber packing. Also| the result uf optimum steam system analysis are indicated. CO2 disposal method is needed with the combination of CO2 recovery| therefore CO2 subterranean disposal method is also discussed as the practical way. 4662,1998,4,4,Diffusion coefficients of global warming gases into air and its component gases,The mutual diffusion coefficients of carbon dioxide| methane| and dinitrogen oxide into air and its component gases (nitrogen and oxygen) have been measured in the temperature range 0-180 degrees C and at atmospheric pressure by the use of the Taylor dispersion method. The diffusion Coefficients do not vary in practice on substituting pure nitrogen or oxygen for air. The diffusion coefficients for carbon dioxide and dinitrogen oxide| which have almost the same molecular weight| agree with each other within the experimental uncertainty (+/-2%)| and are smaller than those for methane. The present results can be reproduced well by the functional form D-12/m(2) s(-1) = A(T/K)(B)| where D-12 is the mutual diffusion coefficient at 1 atm (101 325 Pa) and Tis the absolute temperature. The constants A and B are as follows: carbon dioxide-lair| nitrogen| oxygen)| A = 5.75 x 10(-10)| B = 1.81; methane-(air| nitrogen| oxygen)| A = 7.04 x 10(-10) B = 1.83; dinitrogen oxide-(air| nitrogen| oxygen)| A = 5.34 x 10(-10)| B = 1.82. 4546,1998,5,3,Dinoflagellate-based sea surface temperature reconstructions across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary,Quantitative analysis of organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages from closely spaced samples across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) at El Kef (NW Tunisia)| Caravaca (SE Spain) and Stevns Klint (E Denmark) allows for reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST) trends. The combined dinocyst-based SST curves indicate relatively stable warm conditions during the latest Maastrichtian in contrast to strongly fluctuating and on average cooler conditions during the earliest Danian. In detail| the results indicate cooling across the KTB| immediately followed by an interval of pronounced warming| the latter recorded in all studied sections. Two more cooling pulses may be recognized in the overlying interval followed by a gradual return to stable| relatively warm conditions. Our data furthermore show that these KTB-related climatic changes invoked distinct migration among organic-walled cyst-producing dinoflagellates| a group not pushed to extinction at the KTB| recordable in both hemispheres. Recent models predict periods varying between several months to 8-13 yr of global cooling ('impact winter') and reduced solar transmission as a direct result of the Chicxulub KTB impact| followed by relatively long-term| excess CO2-related global warming. Our results are in line with such models| but suggest that the impact-related cooling phase may have lasted longer| and that marked climatic instability continued to some 100|000 yrs following the KTB event(s). (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4582,1998,3,3,Direct conversion of methane to methanol using molten salts,In recent years the world has become more concerned about the global warming problem. The major greenhouse gas-CO2 are produced mainly by the utilization and combustion of fossil fuels-natural gas| oil| and coal. Methanol is a cleaner fuel for the environment than oil and coal. It generates less CO2| NOx and SOx per unit of thermal energy| and is easier to handle than methane. The direct conversion of methane to methanol is a potential process for methanol production| although it has not been practiced on a commercial level to date. In the present study| nitrate melts were used as the promoters for the partial oxidation of methane to methanol. The results were compared to the data extracted from the literature using other melt salts. It has been found that the oxygen-containing product CH3OH formed in nitrate melts| whereas the products obtained in hydroxides| carbonates and chlorides were mainly C2H6 and C2H4. Summarizing the results obtained in our work and the previous studies| it was suggested that the reaction route proceeding to the oxidative coupling or the direct conversion to methanol can be controlled by a suitable choice of molten salts. 4618,1998,3,3,Direct methanol fuel cells for vehicular applications,Dramatic technological advances for the proton exchange membrane fuel cell have focused attention on this technology for motor vehicles. The fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have the potential to compete with the petroleum-fueled internal combustion engine Vehicles (ICEVs) in cost and performance while effectively addressing air quality| energy insecurity| and global warming concerns. Methanol being a liquid can be easily transported and can be supplied from the existing network of oil company distribution sites. Recently| combining improved catalysts with fuel cell engineering| it has been possible to overcome some of the difficulties that have frustrated previous research and development efforts in realizing a commercially viable direct methanol fuel cell. Direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) with power densities between 0.2 and 0.4 W/cm(2) at operational temperatures in the range 95-130 degrees C have been developed. These power densities are sufficient to suggest that stack construction is well worth while. This paper reviews recent advances and technical challenges in the field of DMFCs. 4648,1998,2,3,Does global warming threat the existence of Arctic charr| Salvelinus alpinus (Salmonidae)| in northern Finland?,Predicted global warming is expected to raise the water temperatures 2-6 degrees C after doubling of atmospheric CO2. As an extreme coldwater fish species the Arctic charr appear to avoid water temperatures above 16-18 degrees C. Arctic charr lives in Finland only in the mountain lakes of northernmost parts of the country and in some deep lakes of eastern Finland. Charr is most abundant at high altitudes. The global warming is expected to threaten first populations living in low altitude shallow lakes in which no thermal summer stratification occurs. Climatic warming will increase duration of high temperatures and thermal stratification in deep lakes. This indicates that Arctic charr will spend longer periods in minimum thermal habitats. Assuming that no factors other than temperature will change in future climates| reductions in summer habitat will probably lead to noticeable reductions in many charr populations. Populations living in deep lakes will survive better than those living in shallow lakes provided that the water quality of these lakes does not deteriorate. 4650,1998,4,3,Does the correlation between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures rule out any significant global warming from greenhouse gases?,Since the discovery of a striking correlation between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The present analysis shows that a similar degree of correlation is obtained when testing the solar data against a couple of fictitious temperature series representing different global warming trends. Therefore| the correlation cannot be used to estimate the magnitude of a possible contribution to global warming from human activities| nor to rule out a sizable contribution from that source. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2346,1998,2,3,Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling to global climate change,Terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system are closely coupled| particularly by cycling of carbon between vegetation| soils and the atmosphere. It has been suggested(1|2) that changes in climate and in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have modified the carbon cycle so as to render terrestrial-ecosystems as substantial carbon sinks(3|4); but direct evidence for this is very limited(5|6). Changes in ecosystem carbon stocks caused by shifts between stable climate states have been evaluated(7|8)| but the dynamic responses of ecosystem carbon fluxes to transient climate changes are still poorly understood. Here we use a terrestrial biogeochemical model(9)| forced by simulations of transient climate change with a general circulation model(10)| to quantify the dynamic variations in ecosystem carbon fluxes induced by transient changes in atmospheric CO2 and climate from 1861 to 2070. We predict that these changes increase global net ecosystem production significantly| but that this response will decline as the CO2 fertilization effect becomes saturated and is diminished by changes in climatic factors. Thus terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes both respond to and strongly influence the atmospheric CO2 increase and climate change. 4558,1998,4,2,Earth Observing System AM1 mission to earth,In 1998| NASA launches EOS-AM1| the first of a series of the Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites. EOS will monitor the evolution of the state of the earth for 18 years| starting with the morning observations of EOS-AM1 (10:30 a.m. equatorial crossing time). An integrated view of the earth| as planned by EOS| is needed to study the interchange of energy| moisture| and carbon between the lands| oceans| and atmosphere. The launch of EOS-AM1 and other international satellites marks a new phase of climate and global change research. Both natural and anthropogenic climate change have been studied for more than a century. It is now recognized that processes that vary rapidly in time and space-e.g| aerosol| clouds| land use| and exchanges of energy and moisture-must be considered to adequately explain the temperature record and predict future climate change. Frequent measurements with adequate resolution| as only possible from spacecraft| are key tools in such an effort. The versatile and highly accurate EOS-AM1 data| together with previous satellite records| as well as data from the Advanced Earth Observing System (ADEOS) (I and II)| Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)| Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS)| Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR)| Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS)| Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT)| EOS-PM1| Land Remote-Sensing Satellite (Landsat)| and ground-based networks is expected to revolutionize the way scientists look at climate change. This article introduces the EOS-AM1 mission and the special issue devoted to it. Following a brief historical perspective for an insight into the purpose and objectives of the mission| we shall summarize the characteristics of the five instruments onboard EOS-AM1. Specifically| we concentrate on the innovative elements of these five instruments and provide examples of the science issues that require this type of data. These examples show the importance of collecting data simultaneously from each of the five EOS-AM1 sensors for studying rapidly varying processes and parameters. 2372,1998,4,4,East Antarctic sea ice: observations and modelling,The importance of monitoring sea ice for studies of global climate has been well noted for several decades. Observations have shown that sea ice exhibits large seasonal variability in extent| concentration and thickness. These changes have a significant impact on climate| and the potential nature of many of these connections has been revealed in studies with numerical models. An accurate representation of the sea-ice distribution (including ice extent| concentration and thickness) in climate models is therefore important for modelling global climate change. This work presents an overview of the observed sea-ice characteristics in the East Antarctic pack ice (60-150 degrees E) and outlines possible improvements to the simulation of sea ice over this region by modifying the ice-thickness parameterisation in a coupled sea-ice-atmosphere model| using observational data of ice thickness and concentration. Sensitivity studies indicate that the simulation of East Antarctic sea ice can be improved by modifying both the "lead parameterisation" and "rafting scheme" to be ice-thickness dependent. The modelled results are currently out of phase with the observed data| and the addition of a multilevel ice-thickness distribution would improve the simulation significantly. 4543,1998,2,4,Effect of climate change on mast-seeding species: frequency of mass flowering and escape from specialist insect seed predators,Global surface temperatures are expected to increase by several degrees in the next century| with potentially large but poorly understood impacts on ecological interactions. Here we propose potential effects of increased temperatures on ecologically dominant New Zealand grasses (Chionochloa spp.) that mass flower and mast seed. Twenty-two years' data from five masting Chionochloa species in New Zealand showed that the cue for heavy flowering was unusually high temperature in the summer of the year before flowering. Attack by predispersal insect seed predators was much reduced in mast years| apparently because predator populations were satiated. Increased temperatures would greatly decrease interannual variation in Chionochloa flowering| allowing seed predator populations to increase and potentially to devastate the seed crop annually. Similar responses are likely in masting species worldwide. This previously unrecognized effect of global warming could have widespread impacts on temperate ecosystems. 4630,1998,3,4,Effect of crop management on C and N in long-term crop rotations after adopting no-tillage management: Comparison of soil sampling strategies,Society is interested in increasing C storage in soil to reduce CO2 concentration in the atmosphere| because the latter may contribute to global warming. Further| there is considerable interest in the use of straw for industrial purposes. Using soil samples taken from the 0- to 7.5-cm and 7.5- to 15-cm depths in May 1987 and September 1996| we determined organic C and total N in five crop rotations (nine treatments) using automated Carlo Erba combustion analyzer. The experiment was managed using conventional mechanical tillage from 1957 to 1989; it was changed to no-tillage management in 1990. Our objective was to determine: (a) if change to no-tillage management had changed soil C and N storage| and (b) if method of calculating organic C and N change would influence interpretation of the results. All three methods of calculation confirmed the efficacy of employing best management practices (e.g.| fertilization based on soil tests| reducing summerfallow| including legumes in rotations) for increasing or maintaining soil organic matter| and showed that the latter was directly associated with the amount of crop residues returned to the soil. Where bulk density was significantly different between sampling times| the often used mass per fixed depth (MFD) (i.e.| volume basis) calculation can lead to erroneous conclusions. When the recently recommended mass per equal depth (MED) method of calculation was used| it showed that 6 yr of no-tillage did not increase soil organic C or total N. However| in unfertilized systems| where crop yields are gradually decreasing since the change| there is an accompanying decrease in organic matter| while fertilized| or high-fertility systems that include legume hay crops| in which wheat yields have been maintained have tended to maintain the organic matter level over time. When the MFD calculation was used| there was no change in C over time when straw was harvested in the F-W-W system; however| the MED calculation and concentrations tend to show a decrease in soil C and N. This suggests that in time| industrial use of straw may have negative consequences for soil conservation. We concluded that concentrations may be as effective as MED for assessing changes in organic matter| provided "amounts" are not required. 4567,1998,3,4,Effect of soil oxidants KNO3| MnO2| and air on methane production in flooded rice soil suspension,To determine effective means to reduce methane (CH4) production from flooded rice soil| laboratory measurements were made on methane (CH4) formation in a Crowley silt loam as affected by the addition of potassium nitrate (KNO3)| manganese dioxide (MnO2)| and air (O-2) under flooded conditions. In the experiment| oxidants were added to the soil prior to flooding at the rate of 300 and 1000 ppm O-2 equivalent. Methane production was measured over a 32 d incubation period. Potassium nitrate added at rates of 300 and 1000 ppm O-2 equivalent reduced CH4 production by 100% and MnO2| at 300 and 1000 ppm O-2 equivalent| significantly decreased CH4 formation approximately 20% and 98-99% over the 32 d period| respectively compared to controls. Air addition did not significantly affect CH4 formation. 4571,1998,2,4,Effects of chronic sublethal ammonia and a simulated summer global warming scenario: protein synthesis in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss),Protein synthesis| net accretion| and degradation in liver| gill| and white muscle and ribosomal translational efficiency and protein synthesis capacity in liver and gill were measured using a flooding dose of [H-3]phenylalanine in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). The fish were chronically exposed (90 days) in hardwater to the presence or absence of sublethal ammonia (70 mu mol total ammonia.L-1) alone or in combination with a 2 degrees C elevation in the normal temperature profile over the months of June-September 1993 (ambient temperature range 13-22 degrees C). Chronic sublethal exposure to ammonia had little impact on gill protein synthesis and degradation (protein turnover) and even less in muscle. However| in the liver| both protein synthesis and degradation were stimulated following 60 days of the sublethal ammonia exposure. The 2 degrees C elevation in temperature resulted in a slight increase in protein turnover in both gills and liver. However| during the period of peak water temperature| the 2 degrees C elevation in temperature inhibited protein dynamics in these tissues. Overall| elevated environmental ammonia in combination with a summer global warming scenario would challenge the ability of fish to adapt to alterations in the quality of their environment| most notably during periods of peak temperatures. 4570,1998,2,3,Effects of experimental warming on plant reproductive phenology in a subalpine meadow,Increasing "greenhouse" gases are predicted to warm the earth by several degrees Celsius during the coming century. At high elevations one likely result is a longer snow-free season| which will affect plant growth and reproduction. We studied flowering and fruiting of 10 angiosperm species in a subalpine meadow over 4 yr| focusing on plant responses to warming by overhead heaters. The 10 species reproduced in a predictable sequence during 3-4 mo between spring snowmelt and fall frosts. Experimental warming advanced the date of snowmelt by almost 1 wk on average| relative to controls| and similarly advanced the mean timing of plant reproduction. This phenological shift was entirely explained by earlier snowmelt in the case of six plant species I:hat flowered early in the season| whereas four later-flowering species apparently responded to other cues. Experimental warming had no detectable effect on the duration of flowering and fruiting| even though natural conditions of early snowmelt were associated with longer duration and greater overlap of reproduction of sequentially flowering species. Fruit set was greater in warmed plots for most species| but this effect was not significant for any species individually. We conclude that global warming will cause immediate phenological shifts in plant communities at high elevations| mediated largely through changes in timing of snowmelt. Shifts on longer time scales are also likely as plant fitnesses| population dynamics| and community structure respond to altered phenology of species relative to one another and to animal mutualists and enemies. However| the small spatial scale of experiments such as ours and the inability to perfectly mimic all elements of climate change limit our ability to predict these longer term changes. A promising future direction is to combine experiments with study of natural phenological variation on landscape and larger scales. 4659,1998,2,4,Effects of hydrologic changes on aboveground production and surface water chemistry in two boreal peatlands in Alberta: Implications for global warming,Aboveground net primary production (NPP) and surface water chemistry variables were monitored in a lacustrine sedge fen and a bog for four years. There were no significant differences in precipitation| mean growing season annual temperature| and number of growing degree days from 1991 to 1994. The mean annual water levels in the lacustrine sedge fen differed significantly| whereas they were similar in the bog during these four years. We measured 15 surface water variables in the lacustrine sedge fen and the bog| and found that only two correlated significantly with water level fluctuations. In the lacustrine sedge fen| calcium correlated positively (r(2) = 0.56) and nitrate correlated negatively (r(2) = 0.20) with water levels. In the bog| potassium correlated positively (r(2) = 0.88) and total dissolved phosphorus correlated negatively (r(2) = 0.62) with water levels. The remaining chemical variables showed no significant correlations with water level fluctuations. Net primary production of the different vegetation strata appeared to respond to different environmental variables. In the lacustrine sedge fen| graminoid production was explained to a significant degree by water levels (r(2) = 0.53)| whereas shrub production was explained to a significant degree by surface water chemistry variables| such as nitrate (r(2) = 0.74) and total phosphorus (r(2) = 0.22). In the bog| temperature was the only variable that explained moss production to a significant degree (r(2) = 0.71)| whereas ammonium explained graminoid production (r(2) = 0.66) and soluble reactive phosphorus explained shrub production to significant degrees (r(2) = 0.71). There are few direct data on the impact of climatic warming in boreal wetlands| although paleoecological and 2xCO(2) model data have provided some indications of past and possibly future changes in vegetation composition| respectively. Our results suggest that the lacustrine sedge fen may succeed to a bog dominated by Sphagnum spp. and Picea mariana| whereas the bog may succeed to an upland-type forest ecosystem. 4486,1998,3,4,Effects of including nitrogen emissions from soil in environmental systems analysis of waste management strategies,The environmental impacts of nitrogen emissions from soil resulting from the use of organic fertilizers| such as manure| are large compared with the corresponding impacts of mineral fertilizers. However| soil emissions are rarely included in systems analysis of waste management strategies. This study examines whether the inclusion of soil emissions can affect the environmental ranking of systems for managing solid biodegradable waste. Waste management scenarios based on incineration| anaerobic digestion and composting| respectively| were compared. The scenarios were analysed using the organic waste research (ORWARE) simulation model. A simplified model for calculating nitrogen availability and emissions was also constructed. Life-cycle analysis methodology was used for choosing system boundaries and evaluating the results. Global warming| acidification and eutrophication were the impact categories considered. The results indicate the vital importance of considering nitrogen emissions from soil when comparing biological waste management systems with other waste management methods| especially with regard to eutrophication effects. Soil emissions are also important when comparing the environmental impacts of anaerobic digestion and composting systems. However| the variation in nitrogen emissions from soil is large and depends on the spreading technique used| climate| drainage and soil texture (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2354,1998,4,4,Effects of long-term elevated [CO2] from natural CO2 springs on Nardus stricta: Photosynthesis| biochemistry| growth and phenology,Plants of Nardus stricta growing near a cold| naturally emitting CO2 spring in Iceland were used to investigate the long-term (> 100 years) effects of elevated [CO2] on photosynthesis| biochemistry| growth and phenology in a northern grassland ecosystem. Comparisons were made between plants growing in an atmosphere naturally enriched with CO2 (approximate to 790 mu mol mol(-1)) near the CO2 spring and plants of the same species growing in adjacent areas exposed to ambient CO2 concentrations (approximate to 360 mu mol mol(-1)). Nardus stricta growing near the spring exhibited earlier senescence and reductions in photosynthetic capacity (approximate to 25%)| Rubisco content (approximate to 26%)| Rubisco activity (approximate to 40%)| Rubisco activation state (approximate to 23%)| chlorophyll content (approximate to 33%) and leaf area index (approximate to 22%) compared|vith plants growing away from the spring. The potential positive effects of elevated [CO2] on grassland ecosystems in Iceland are likely to be reduced by strong down-regulation in the photosynthetic apparatus of the abundant N| stricta species. 4537,1998,4,4,Effects of orbital decay on satellite-derived lower-tropospheric temperature trends,The 17-year lower-tropospheric temperature record derived from the satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU)(1-3) shows a global cooling trend| from 1979 to 1995| of -0.05 K per decade at an altitude of about 3.5 km (refs 4| 5). Air temperatures measured at the Earth's surface| in contrast| have risen by approximately +0.13 K per decade over the same period(4|6). The two temperature records are derived from measurements of different physical parameters| and thus are not directly comparable. In fact| the lower stratosphere is cooling substantially (by about -0.5 K per decade)(5)| so the warming trend seen at the surface is expected to diminish with altitude and change into a cooling trend at some point in the troposphere. Even so| it has been suggested that the cooling trend seen in the satellite data is excessive(4|7|8). The difficulty in reconciling the information from these different sources has sparked a debate in the climate community about possible instrumental problems and the existence of global warming(4|7|9). Here we identify an artificial cooling trend in the satellite-derived temperature series caused by previously neglected orbital-decay effects. We find a new| corrected estimate of +0.07 K per decade for the MSU-based temperature trend| which is in closer agreement with surface temperatures. We also find that the reported(7) cooling of the lower troposphere| relative to the middle troposphere| is another artefact caused by uncorrected orbital-decay effects. 4667,1998,3,4,Effects of water percolation on methane emission from rice paddies: a lysimeter experiment,The effect of water percolation on CH4 emission from rice paddies was investigated using a lysimeter experiment for 4 years. Water percolation rates of the lysimeters were adjusted to one of three values| about 0| 5| or 20 mm day(-1) during the cultivation periods of the first 3 years by periodically opening water stopping valves installed at the bottom of the lysimeters. In the 4th year| water was drained by pumps at a rate of 0| 7.7| or 25 mm day(-1) respectively. CH4 emission rates significantly decreased with an increase in the percolation rates. Total emission during a cultivation period ranged from 5.7 to 13.8| 0.6 to 4.8| and 0.1 to 0.3 g m(-2) in the no-| moderate-| and high-percolation plots| respectively. The decrease in soil Eh during the cultivation periods was markedly retarded by water percolation. The critical initiation soil Eh of CH4 emission observed was around -30 mV at 5 cm depth. CH4 emissions during the fallow periods (from September to May) were equivalent to 14-18% of those during the previous cultivation period if the paddies were continuously flooded all the year round. Low soil temperature during the fallow periods was a major limiting factor for CH4 emission during these periods in the case of continuously flooded treatment. 4574,1998,2,3,El Nino| ice cover| and Great Lakes phosphorus: Implications for climate warming,Phosphorus concentrations in a 19-year record of the Lake Huron outflow (Laurentian Great Lakes of North America) were negatively correlated with the extent of Great Lakes winter ice cover. The highest phosphorus concentrations (2-3 times higher than normal) occurred during 1983| 1987| and 1992 in response to strong El Nino-related moderation of winter air temperatures. The 1983 winter air temperature anomaly of +2.5 degrees C (the mildest winter in the record) is well within the output of predicted temperature increases by general circulation models for the Great Lakes basin under a 2X CO2 climate warming scenario. Lake data from strong El Nino years| when contrasted with other years having near-normal winter temperatures and ice cover| can thus serve to identify some previously unanticipated impacts of global warming on lake water quality. I suggest that global warming may have important implications for eutrophication control in the Great Lakes. 2345,1998,2,4,Elevated atmospheric [CO2] promotes frost damage in evergreen tree seedlings,Growth under elevated [CO2] promoted spring frost damage in field grown seedlings of snow gum (Eucalyptus pauciflora Sieb| ex Spreng|)| one of the most frost tolerant of eucalypts| Freezing began in the leaf midvein| consistent with it being a major site of frost damage under field conditions. The average ice nucleation temperature was higher in leaves grown under elevated [CO2] (- 5.7 degrees C versus - 4.3 degrees C)| consistent with the greater incidence of frost damage in these leaves (34% versus 68% of leaves damaged). These results have major implications for agriculture| forestry and vegetation dynamics| as an increase in frost susceptibility may reduce potential gains in productivity from CO2 fertilization and may affect predictions of vegetation change based on increasing temperature. 2341,1998,2,4,Elevated CO2 and water deficit effects on photosynthesis| ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase-oxygenase| and carbohydrate metabolism in rice,Rice (Oryza sativa [L.] cv. IR-72) was grown for a season in sunlit| controlled-environment chambers at 350 or 700 mu mol CO2 mol(-1) under continuously flooded (unstressed) or drought-imposed periods at panicle initiation (stressed). The midday canopy photosynthetic rates (P-n)| measured at the CO2 concentration ([CO2]) used for growth| were enhanced by high [CO2] but reduced by drought. High [CO2] increased P-n by 18 to 34% for the unstressed plants| and 6 to 12% for the stressed plants. In the unstressed plants| CO2 enrichment increased water-use efficiency (WUE) by 26%| and reduced evapotranspiration (ET) by 8 to 14%. Both high [CO2] and severe drought decreased the activity and content of ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase-oxygenase (Rubisco). High-CO2-unstressed plants had 6 to 22% smaller content and 5 to 25% lower activity of Rubisco than ambient-CO2-unstressed plants. Under severe drought| reductions of Rubisco were 53 and 27% in activity and 40 and 12% in content| respectively| for ambient- and high-CO2 treatments. The apparent catalytic turnover rate (K-cat) of midday fully activated Rubisco was not altered by high [CO2]| but severe drought reduced K-cat by 17 to 23%. Chloroplasts of the high-CO2 leaves contained more| and larger starch grains than those of the ambient-CO2 leaves. High [CO2] did not affect the leaf sucrose content of unstressed plants. In contrast| severe drought reduced the leaf starch and increased the sucrose content in both CO2 treatments. The activity of leaf sucrose phosphate synthase of unstressed plants was not affected by high [CO2]| whereas that of ambient-CO2-grown plants was reduced 45% by severe drought. Reduction in ET and enhancements in both P-n and WUE for rice grown under high [CO2] helped to delay the adverse effects of severe drought and allowed the stressed plants to assimilate CO2 for an extra day. Thus| rice grown in the next century may utilize less water| use water more efficiently| and be able to tolerate drought better under some situations. 4510,1998,3,4,Emissions of N(2)O from Scottish agricultural soils| as a function of fertilizer N,Potato fields and cut (ungrazed) grassland in SE Scotland gave greater annual N(2)O emissions per ha (1.0-3.2 kg N(2)O-N ha(-1)) than spring barley or winter wheat fields (0.3-0.8 kg N(2)O-N ha(-1))| but in terms of emission per unit of N applied the order was potatoes > barley > grass > wheat. On the arable land| especially the potato fields| a large part of the emissions occurred after harvest. When the grassland data were combined with those for 2 years' earlier work at the same site| the mean emission over 3 years| for fertilization with ammonium nitrate| was 2.24 kg N(2)O-N ha(-1) (0.62% of the N applied). Also| a very strong relationship between N(2)O emission and soil nitrate content was found for the grassland| provided the water-filled pore space was > 70%. Significant relationships were also found between the emissions from potato fields and the soil mineral N content| with the added feature that the emission per unit of soil mineral N was an order of magnitude larger after harvest than before| possibly due to the effect of labile organic residues on denitrification. Generally the emissions measured were lower| as a function of the N applied| than those used as the basis for the current value adopted by IPCC| possibly because spring/early summer temperatures in SE Scotland are lower than those where the other data were obtained. The role of other factors contributing to emissions| e.g. winter freeze-thaw events and green manure inputs| are discussed| together with the possible implications of future increases in nitrogen fertilizer use in the tropics. 4540,1998,3,3,Environmental aspects of fluorinated materials: Part 3 - Comparative life-cycle assessment of the impacts associated with fire extinguishants HFC-227ea and IG-541,Fluorinated materials developed to replace materials banned from manufacture under the Montreal Protocol are themselves contributors to environment damage. In particular| their contribution go global warming is under scrutiny from customers| regulators and pressure groups. This paper provides a comparison of the global warming and other impacts associated with two possible replacements for Halon 1301 (a banned fire extinguishant)| namely an 'in-kind' compound CF3CHFCF3 (HFC-227ea) and a 'not-in-kind' blend of nitrogen| argon and carbon dioxide (IG-541). The impacts associated with the manufacture and deployment of the HFC-227ea are found to be substantially greater than those of the inert gas mixture designed for the same fire-extinguishing duty. The impacts during manufacture reveal an important issue for the widely used measure of global warming impact-the so-called Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI). The present work clearly reveals that where impacts associated with manufacture are significant| the scope of the TEWI analysis needs to cover the manufacturing process if it is to be meaningful. 2317,1998,4,3,European source strengths and northern hemisphere baseline concentrations of radiatively active trace gases at Mace Head| Ireland,Greenhouse gas measurements have been made continuously with high frequency and precision at the remote baseline monitoring station at Mace Head on the Atlantic Ocean coastline of Ireland since 1987. By using three independent methods| the two-hourly observations have been sorted by air mass origins into those from "unpolluted" or Northern Hemisphere baseline air masses and those from "polluted" European air masses. Northern Hemisphere baseline methane| nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide concentrations have risen throughout the 10 year period and their respective mid-1996 levels are the highest mid-year levels recorded so far. For ozone| the mid-1996 annual mean concentrations was within 0.1 ppb of the highest mid-year level. The elevated greenhouse gas concentrations found in "polluted" air masses provide clear evidence for the presence of substantial emission sources in Europe. Using a simple climatological long-range transport model and a sophisticated Lagrangian dispersion model| it has been possible to estimate the magnitudes of the greenhouse gas emissions required to support the observations. Estimates of European source strengths of methane| nitrous oxide| carbon monoxide and halocarbons agree well with the available emission inventories. Using the Mace Head observations| significant additional contributions to global climate change have been identified from the trace gases: methane| nitrous oxide and tropospheric ozone| over and above that driven by carbon dioxide. The radiative forcing consequences of a range of HCFCs and HFCs will only become of significance should their emissions grow to become comparable with those of the CFCs that they have replaced. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4598,1998,3,3,Evaluation of trifluoroacetic anhydride as an alternative plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition chamber clean chemistry,One environmental issue currently facing the semiconductor industry is the emission of perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) from a variety of processes including chamber cleaning following plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) of dielectrics. The emission of PFCs has been targeted for reduction due to the contribution of these species to global warming. An option under investigation is the use of alternative compounds that emit lower amounts of global warming species. The current study presents chamber cleaning times and emissions from the use of one such species| trifluoroacetic anhydride (TFAA)| in a widely used commercial PECVD tool| the Novellus Concept One 200. A central composite design-of-experiments was employed to calculate response surfaces for the chamber clean time and PFC emission concentrations as the chamber pressure| TFAA flow rate| and oxygen flow rate were varied. The chamber clean times were measured using optical emission spectroscopy| quadrupole mass spectrometry| as well as Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy| and the PFC emissions were quantified using FTIR spectroscopy. The performance of TFAA is compared to standard Novellus Concept One 200 C2F6 and C3F8 chamber cleaning processes and to processes in which the effect of augmentation of C2F6 with NF3 is studied. (C) 1998 American Vacuum Society. 4563,1998,3,3,Evaluation of trifluoroiodomethane as SiO2 etchant for global warming reduction,The utilization of CF3I in the plasma assisted dry etching of SiO2 has been studied in order to reduce the environmental impact of microelectronics device fabrication. The results show that CF3I is a promising substitute of CF4 in oxide etching since its utilization reduces 3-3.5 times the contribution to the global warming| nevertheless it still has a consistent effect on the environment for the plasma assisted formation of perfluorocompounds. (C) 1998 American Vacuum Society. 4584,1998,4,4,Evidence for solar-cycle forcing and secular variation in the Armagh Observatory temperature record (1844-1992),A prominent feature of previous long-term temperature studies has been the appearance of warming since the 1880s| this often being taken as evidence for anthropogenic-induced global warming. In this investigation| the long-term| annual| mean temperature record (1844-1992) of the Armagh Observatory (Armagh| North Ireland)| a set of temperature data based on maximum and minimum thermometers that predates the 1880s and correlates well with northern hemispheric and global standards| is examined for evidence of systematic variation| in particular| as related to solar-cycle forcing and secular variation. Indeed| both appear to be embedded within the Armagh data. Removal of these effects| each contributing about 8% to the overall reduction in variance| yields residuals that are randomly distributed. Application of the 10-year moving average to the residuals| furthermore| strongly suggests that the behavior of the residuals is episodic| inferring that (for extended periods of time) temperatures at Armagh sometimes were warmer or cooler (than expected)| while at other times they were stable. Comparison of cyclic averages of annual mean temperatures against the lengths of the associated Hale cycles (i.e.| the length of two| sequentially numbered| even-odd sunspot cycle pairs) strongly suggests that the temperatures correlate inversely (r = -0.886 at <2% level of significance) against the length of the associated Hale cycle. Because sunspot cycle 22 ended in 1996| the present Hale cycle probably will be shorter than average| implying that temperatures at Armagh over this Hale cycle will be warmer (about 9.31 +/- 0.23 degrees C at the 90% confidence level) than average (= 9.00 degrees C). 4578,1998,2,4,Extreme erosional events and natural hazards in Scandinavian mountains,The climate in northwestern Europe in the last 50 years appears to have undergone periods of marked extreme events such as windstorms| snowstorms and events of heavy rainfall| causing floods and erosion. In particular| the summers in the 1990s had Mediterranean-like fluctuations with warm spells| rainstorms of "double" intensity| flooding| and landslides in the mountains. If and how these extremes are connected with global warming due to an increasing greenhouse effect is an open question. However| we feel justified| both for theoretical and practical reasons| in making the following recommendations for future research: Continued observation and information on extreme erosional events and natural hazards are important in order to clarify their climatic links and for safer environmental management for the benefit of people who work or are tourists in the mountains and downstream areas. It is also necessary to improve our knowledge of the connections between local weather extremes and regional climatic trends| e.g. through reconstruction of the former frequency of events during periods of rising temperatures. Two kinds of erosional processes and natural hazards| which may increase in frequency during a climatic warming| are discussed: i) snowmelt-triggered floods and slushflows in spring; and ii) rainstorm-triggered floods and debris flows in summer and autumn. 4621,1998,2,4,Flowering phenology in the central highland of Iceland and implications for climatic warming in the Arctic,The cool and short growing season that characterizes Arctic climates puts severe constraints on life cycles and reproduction in the Arctic flora. The timing of flowering is particularly critical and may affect both breeding system and reproductive success through the heavy penalties associated with later flowering. An 11-year study of 75 species in the central highland of Iceland showed that the onset of flowering varies greatly among years. The number of species in flower by the first week of July was closely correlated with air temperature (degree days above zero) in the preceding 5 weeks| but no correlations were found with degree days in May or with total degree days in the previous growing season. Time of snowmelt| which has widely been regarded as the environmental event initiating growth and flowering in alpine and arctic tundra| only had a significant effect when two exceptionally cold and late summers were included. The species studied| most of which have a wide distribution in the Arctic| are predicted to respond quickly to warmer spring and early summer temperatures. Accelerated phenologies may alter patterns of resource allocation| have implications for pollinators and pollinator-competition| and could increase the size| species richness and intraspecific genetic diversity of the soil seed bank. 4522,1998,3,4,Fluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6): A methodology for national emission inventories and scenarios applied to the Netherlands,A six-step methodology for estimating use (Steps 1-5) and emissions (Step 6) of fluorocarbons not regulated under the Montreal Protocol and SF6 has been described| to improve insight into emissions in the Netherlands. The last step is largely in line with methods applied in the annual AFEAS reports and under discussion within the IPCC| and estimates HFCs| PFCs| FICs and SF6 released as the sum of (1) emission from compounds used as substitutes for ozone-depleting compounds (2) emissions due to SF6's historical market and (3) emissions from other industrial processes. Emissions in the Netherlands were estimated for scenarios assuming that the Montreal protocol will be implemented. Without additional measures (reference scenario emissions of HFCs| PFCs| FICs and SF6 increase from 878 (metric) tons in 1990 to 6983 tons in 2020. In 2020 emissions are estimated to be about 21 Mt CO2 equivalents| or 13% of the CO2 target for that year (i.e. stabilization at the 2000 level). Assuming maximum emission control through good housekeeping| recycling and waste destruction| emissions are 40-50% lower than in the no-control scenarios. The closed applications only scenario assumes use of these compounds to be restricted to stationary cooling and closed-foam blowing. In this scenario| emissions are 15-25% (no-control case) and 50-60% (maximum emission control case) lower than in the reference scenario. Reductions up to 90% are found in the low-GWP scenario| assuming an average Global Warming Potential of the mix of compounds used of 250 or less. 4526,1998,3,2,Fluxes of carbon dioxide| nitrous oxide| and methane in grass sod and winter wheat-fallow tillage management,Cropping and tillage management can increase atmospheric CO2| N2O| and CH4 concentrations| and contribute to global warming and destruction of the ozone layer. Fluxes of these gases in vented surface chambers| and water filled pore space (WFPS) and temperature of survace soil were measured weekly from a long-term winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-fallow rotation system under chemical (no-tillage) and mechanical tillage (noninversion subtillage at 7 to 10 cm or moldboard plowing to 15 cm) follow management and compared with those from "native" grass sod at Sidney| NE| from March 1993 to July 1995. Cropping| tillage| within-field location| time of year| soil temperature| and WFPS influenced net greenhouse gas fluxes. Mean annual interrow CO2 emissions from wheat-fallow ranged from 6.9 to 20.1 kg C ha(-1) d(-1) and generally increased with intensity and degree of tillage (no-till least and plow greatest). Nitrous oxide flux averaged <1.2 g N ha(-1) d(-1) for sod and 1 to 2 g N ha(-1) d(-1) for wheat-fallow. Tillage during fallow increased NIO flux by almost 100%. Nitrous oxide emissions were 1.5 to 3.7 times greater from crop row than interrow locations with greatest differences occurring during periods of highest N2O emission. Mean annual N2O flux over the 3 Jr of study were 1.54 and 0.76 g N ha(-1) d(-1) for row and interrow locations. Methane uptake ranged from 5.9 to 9.9 g C ha(-1) d(-1) and was not influenced by row location. Seasonal CO2 and N2O flux| and CH4 uptake ranked as spring greater than or equal to summer > autumn > winter. Winter periods accounted for 4 to 10% and 3 to 47% of the annual CO2 and N2O flux| respectively| and 12 to 21% of the annual CH4 uptake. Fluxes of CO2 and N2O| and CH4 uptake increased linearly with soil temperature. No-till fallow exhibited the least threat to deterioration of atmospheric or soil quality as reflected by greater CH4 uptake| decreased N2O and CO2 emissions| and less loss of soil organic C than tilled soils. However| potential for increased C sequestration in this wheat-fallow system is limited due to reduced C input from intermittent cropping. 4610,1998,2,4,Foliar carbon isotope discrimination in Larix species and sympatric evergreen conifers: a global comparison,Larches (Larix spp.)| deciduous conifers| occur in the northern hemisphere in cold-temperate and boreal climates - an environment normally thought to favor ever-green tree species. We compare foliar carbon isotope discrimination (Delta)| instantaneous water use efficiency| total foliar nitrogen concentration| and specific leaf area (for a subset of sites) between Larix spp. and co-occurring evergreen conifers at 20 sites throughout the natural range of larches. Except for Larix occidentalis in the xeric Intermountain West| USA| Delta is significantly (P < 0.05) greater for larches than co-occurring evergreen conifers at 77% of the sites| suggesting that larches use water less efficiently. At elevations greater than 3000 m| the Delta of Lar ix-spp. and co-occurring conifers converge| suggesting that water is not the limiting resource. Foliar nitrogen concentration and specific leaf area are two ecophysiological characteristics that are positively correlated with high photosynthetic capacity. Foliar nitrogen concentration is significantly greater for larches than evergreen conifers at 88% of the sites and specific leaf area is approximately three times greater for larches than co-occurring conifers. Future studies should examine the potential effect that global warming may have on the distribution of larch forests because the water use efficiency of larches is commonly less than cooccurring evergreen conifers and the boreal and high-latitude environments are likely to experience the greatest climate warming. 4629,1998,5,4,Forest fire and lake-water acidity in a northern Swedish boreal area: Holocene changes in lake-water quality at Makkassjon,1 A Holocene sediment profile from a northern Swedish boreal forest lake was analysed for diatoms| pollen and charcoal. The diatom data were used for inferences of lake-water pH| alkalinity and colour| while the pollen and charcoal records enabled assessment of catchment vegetation changes and fire. This palaeoecological study demonstrated long-term changes in lake-water acidity as a result of catchment vegetation changes and fire. 2 The pollen record showed the transition from a deciduous-dominated forest (Betula and Alnus) 9000-8000 years sp (calibrated years) to the present coniferous-dominated forest (mainly Pinus) in the catchment of Makkassjon. Local peaks in the steadily decreasing Betula pollen curve corresponded with increases in the charcoal concentration. Picea pollen did not appear until the uppermost half of the sediment section (c. 2500 sp)| and never exceeded 10% relative abundance. 3 The Holocene development in lake-water chemistry| inferred from diatom analysis| was divided into three periods: a natural acidification| a natural alkalization and a fertilization/liming period. During the long-term natural acidification period| the diatom-inferred pH and alkalinity decreased by c. 1.3 pH units and c.80 mu eq I-L| respectively| while diatom-inferred colour increased from 10 to 40 mg Pt 1(-1) in the same period. These changes occurred simultaneously with a change from deciduous to coniferous forest. Using redundancy analysis (RDA) with the tree pollen as predictor variables| the Alnus| Betula or Pinus pollen record captured 41-85% of the variance in lake-water pH and alkalinity. 4 During the period of natural alkalization fire became a dominant disturbance factor in the catchment. The charcoal record was a significant predictor of the variance in diatom-inferred pH and alkalinity during the period with frequent fires| as determined by RDA analysis with a time-restricted Monte Carlo permutation test. The inferred changes in pH and colour suggested that the reduction of soil humus played a major role in the alkalization of the acid-sensitive lake. 5 The results highlight questions about the important mechanisms for predicting the long-term effects of fire on surface-water chemistry| which will be of crucial importance if changes in fire regime take place as a consequence of global warming. 2316,1998,2,2,Forests of tomorrow - from a climatologist's viewpoint,Global climate changes in the course of the past 100 years| that form part of the global environmental changes| are recognizable by a number of indications and can be attributed - to a statistically significant degree - to the: anthropogenic greenhouse effect. These climate changes have clear effects on the biosphere: For example| lengthening of the growing season| as shown by indirect and direct observations as well as by phenological models. The forest of tomorrow will be exposed to a number of further climate changes| with likely different consequences for the main tree species. 4507,1998,4,4,Fundamental study of LCA method for electrical appliances and office automation equipment,In order to develop a life cycle assessment method| which can be widely applied to electrical appliances and office automation equipment we have investigated resource depletion| energy consumption| and environmental pollution in the manufacturing process of circuit boards| and we have identified the common units| such as 228 Mcal/kg of energy consumption and 15.979 kg-C/kg of carbon dioxide emission. Using these common units| we have calculated the categorized impact for the environment (resource depletion| global warming| acid rain| and atmospheric pollution) using a laptop personal computer| whose processing speed (PS) is improved by 5 times| weight is decreased by 47%| and energy-consumption is cut by 44%| compared with previous type. We have also shown that the life cycle environmental impact (EI) per personal computer decreases by 38% in resource depletion| life cycle EI per processing speed decreases 87% in all categories| and environmental efficiency (=PS/EI) in all categories improves by a factor of approximately eight (factor value: 8). 4539,1998,2,4,Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to global warming,Despite increasing temperatures since the end of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1850)| wildfire frequency has decreased as shown in many field studies from North America and Europe. We believe that global warming since 1850 may have triggered decreases in fire frequency in some regions and future warming may even lead to further decreases in fire frequency. Simulations of present and future fire regimes| using daily outputs from the General Circulation Model (GCM)| were in good agreement with recent trends observed in fire history studies. Daily data| rather than monthly data| were used because the weather and| consequently| fire behavior can change dramatically over time periods much shorter than a month. The simulation and fire history results suggest that the impact of global warming on northern forests through forest fires may not be disastrous and that| contrary to the expectation of an overall increase in forest fires| there may be large regions of the Northern Hemisphere with a reduced fire frequency. 4651,1998,4,5,Geomagnetic forcing of changes in climate and in the atmospheric circulation,Common features in records of solar and geomagnetic activity as well as of climatic parameters can be observed. High correlation coefficients were Found between geomagnetic activity| the sea level atmospheric pressure and the surface air temperature| occurring with a positive sign in the middle and southern Europe| in the south-eastern part of North America and in the western Atlantic but with a negative sign in the northern Atlantic and Canada. In the hypothesis proposed here for explaining Sun-weather relations| downward winds following the geomagnetic storm onset are generated in the polar cap of the thermosphere and penetrate to the stratosphere and troposphere| where the atmospheric response can be observed as a sudden increase of pressure and temperature. The subsidence effects along the northern margin of the subpolar high pressure areas (mainly the Siberian high) are accelerated and strong eastward winds participate in the intensification of the northern jet stream and in the successive zonalization of how in mid-latitudes. It is shown that at a time of low geomagnetic activity planetary waves with large amplitudes prevail in the northern hemisphere due to the orographic effect of the Rocky Mountains and Greenland. On the other hand| at a lime of high geomagnetic activity| an intensification of the winds can be observed not only in the thermosphere but also in the troposphere. A strong northern jet stream participates in the intensification of the westerly zonal flow and in the increase of temperature successively in the eastern part of North America| in Europe and northern Asia. These relations are clearly detectable not only in monthly averages of the pressure and temperature distribution but also in the daily variations of atmospheric circulation. The results enable us to test a causal link of the Sun-weather processes| to explain strong interannual climate and weather changes in several key regions of the northern hemisphere| mainly in winter| and to study possible causes of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The results obtained contribute also to the study of the occurrence of long-term cyclic changes which were observed both in solar and geomagnetic activity and temperature T| as well as in the radioactive Delta(14)C| and have a similar trend. A composite curve was suggested by summing up sinusoidal curves with periods 70| 200| 800 and 2400 years roughly representing changes of all three mentioned parameters (aa| T and Delta(14)C) during the past 1600 years and their probable trend for the next 800 years. The results seem to imply that the global warming could be slowed down in next decades| because the natural component influencing the increase of temperature in the 20th century will most probably decrease in the next century due to the weaker external geomagnetic forcing which was suggested to modify natural meteorological processes. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2355,1998,2,3,Global average climate forcing and temperature response since 1750,Estimates are made for the period since 1750 of the major radiative forcing factors thought to be important in climate change. Analysis of these emphasizes the role of biospheric CO2 release and increasing methane up to the early twentieth century. Fossil fuel burning had a minor role until the mid-twentieth century| with the relatively small effects of fossil fuel CO2 being cancelled by sulphate aerosols from the same source. It is shown that| by using reasonable estimates of the contributions by greenhouse gases and anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols| a simple box-diffusion climate model simulates many features of the observed record of global climate change as estimated from both instrumental and glacier data. This is achieved without including either variations in solar intensity over this period or internal variability-which recent discussions of the topic have suggested are needed-but including forcing by volcanic aerosols| which these studies neglected. Three different estimates of forcing by volcanic aerosols are considered; although the volcanic aerosols substantially improve the model's fit to the observations| the validation does not show any one estimate to be clearly superior. The temperature record is shown to be consistent with the climate sensitivity obtained with three-dimensional models. (C) 1998 Royal Meteorological Society. 2335,1998,2,4,Global climate change and infectious diseases,Climate change| if it occurs at the level projected by current global circulation models| may have important and far-reaching effects on infectious diseases| especially those transmitted by poikilothermic arthropods such as mosquitoes and ticks. Although most scientists agree that global climate change will influence infectious disease transmission dynamics| the extent of the influence is uncertain. This conference session provided an overview of the issues associated with climate change as it relates to the emergence and spread of infectious diseases.
2328,1998,3,4,Global climate change and the challenges for renewable energy,Despite the recent encouraging signs of interest by major industrial firms in developing renewable energy sources and technologies more quickly and on a large scale| the 1990s have so far on balance given little grounds for optimism. This is because of the slowness of effective policy developments in the wake of lack of real public support and commitments which has increased pessimism in relation to: prospects for raising the efficiency of energy use quickly; prospects for expanding renewable energy resource utilization quickly; and curbing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change. Further discussions on these issues are presented. 2337,1998,2,4,Global climate change and tropical forest genetic resources,Global climate change may have a serious impact on genetic resources in tropical forest trees. Genetic diversity plays a critical role in the survival of populations in rapidly changing environments. Furthermore| most tropical plant species are known to have unique ecological niches| and therefore changes in climate may directly affect the distribution of biomes| ecosystems| and constituent species. Climate change may also indirectly affect plant genetic resources through effects on phenology| breeding systems| and plant-pollinator and plant seed disperser interactions| and may reduce genetic diversity and reproductive output. As a consequence| population densities may be reduced leading to reduction in genetic diversity through genetic drift and inbreeding. Tropical forest plants may respond to climate change through phenotypic plasticity| adaptive evolution| migration to suitable site| or extinction. However| the potential to respond is limited by a rapid pace of change and the non-availability of alternate habitats due to past and present trends of deforestation. Thus climate change may result in extinction of many populations and species. Our ability to estimate the precise response of tropical forest ecosystems to climate change is limited by lack of long-term data on parameters that might be affected by climate change. Collection of correlative data from long-term monitoring of climate as well as population and community responses at selected sites offer the most cost-effective way to understand the effects of climate change on tropical tree populations. However| mitigation strategies need to be implemented immediately. Because many effects of climate change may be similar to the effects of habitat alteration and fragmentation| protected areas and buffer zones should be enlarged| with an emphasis on connectivity among conserved landscapes. Taxa that are likely to become extinct should be identified and protected through at situ conservation programs. 2369,1998,2,2,Global climate change: Lessons from the past - policy for the future,The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published its second scientific assessment of climate change. Central to the findings of this study is the statement that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" This statement arose from recent studies which compared the observational record over the last century with the results from numerical modelling simulations of the climatic response to increasing greenhouse gases and anthropogenic sulphate aerosols. It has profound implications for policy makers as it is the first time that IPCC has stated that global warming has been detected in the observational record. Recent modelling studies reported in the IPCC second assessment also suggest "best estimates" of 2 degrees C warming and 50 cm sea level rise by the year 2100| relative to 1990| with amplification of the warming at high latitudes and over the interior of continents. Similar IPCC "best estimates" of emission scenarios suggest that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide will continue to increase over the next few centuries. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels| even as high as three times the present| require emission levels significantly below those of 1990. In this paper| the observational record is briefly reviewed as are the recent modelling results which have lead to the statements above. Particular emphasis is given to the role of the oceans in climate change and climate variability. By appealing to the paleoclimatic record for analogies of a climate warmed through anthropogenic greenhouse gases| a discussion of potential climatic swings and regime changes is presented. The policy implications of this work are also addressed. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4592,1998,4,3,Global coupled simulations of climate change due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration,Two transient CO2 experiments using two coupled general circulation models developed by the French GASTON group have been realized using the same methodology. No flux corrections at the air-sea interface were used in these experiments. The main features of the present climate are reasonably well captured by both coupled models in the control simulations| although the biases are not the same. The transient CO2 simulations show a global warming| ranging between 1.6 and 2.0 degrees C at the time of CO2 doubling (+ 70 years). These values| and the main geographical characteristics of climate change| are in agreement with previous studies published by other research groups| using either flux corrected or non-flux corrected models. (C) Academie des sciences/Elsevier| Paris. 4513,1998,4,3,Global methane emission from wetlands and its sensitivity to climate change,The concentration of atmospheric methane (CH(4)) exerts a strong influence on atmospheric chemistry and the global climate. Natural and cultivated wetlands (rice paddies) are important sources of CH(4)| and the extent and strength of these sources may increase as a result of global warming and extension of rice production. Emission of methane From wetlands is an ecosystem process| closely coupled to local climatic and soil environments which influence complex processes of plant growth| soil organic matter decomposition| methanogenesis and CH(4) oxidation. Rates of emission show large variation in both space and time and their estimation from point measurements or from correlation with net primary production is difficult and unreliable. Here we report a study in which process-based ecosystem models were used to estimate global CH(4) emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies| and the sensitivity of the models to simple climate change scenarios were tested. Our estimate of global emission was 145 Tg yr(-1)| of which 92 Tg yr(-1) came from natural wetlands and 53 Tg yr(-1) from rice paddies. The emissions from wetlands at high-latitude and rice paddies were only half of those reported in the traditional literature| confirming more recent measurements. The models also showed thar modest global warming may produce a higher CH(4) emission| but that this effect may be reversed by larger increases in temperature| due to the effect of soil moisture depletion. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4549,1998,4,4,Global warming and geothermal profiles: The surface rock-temperature response in South Africa,Southern hemisphere and South African regional air temperature anomalies for the period 1860-1996 are compared to borehole-derived surface rock-temperature anomalies to assess the extent to which surface rock temperatures reflect possible global warming in South Africa. The warming of the southern hemisphere since the mid-nineteenth century is evident in the regional air temperatures for South Africa. Following a temperature increase to a maximum in the 1920s| the climate cooled until strong warning recommenced in the mid 1970s. Highest temperatures have been experienced in the 1990s. Borehole-derived surface rock temperatures followed a similar pattern| but with a lag of a few decades in the case of the 1920s maximum. The overall warming trend is clearly evident in the rock temperatures. Despite uncertainties in the different data sets| an encouraging degree of agreement exists between the increase in rock temperatures during the twentieth century the corresponding regional South African air temperature increase and the southern hemisphere counterpart. 4661,1998,3,3,Global warming and sustainable energy supply with CANDU nuclear power systems,The United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) review of global warming issues suggests man's activities have resulted in a discemible influence on global climate. The panel identifies options which could be employed to ameliorate the climate influencing greenhouse effect which is attributed primarily to carbon dioxide and other gaseous emissions from fossil fuel energy sources. One option identified is nuclear power| as an alternative energy source which would reduce these emissions. The panel observes that| although nuclear power is a relatively greenhouse gas free energy source| there are a number of issues related to it's use which are slowing it's deployment. This paper enumerates the issues raised by the IPCC and addresses each in turn in the context of CANDU reactors and sustainable development. It is concluded that the issues are not fundamental barriers to expanded installation of nuclear fission energy systems. Nuclear reactors| and CANDU reactors in particular| can meet the energy needs of current generations while enhancing the technological base which will allow future generations to meet their energy needs. The essential requirements of a sustainable system are thus met. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 4672,1998,2,4,Global warming and the future of Caribbean coral reefs,Computer simulations with the COREEF model (Graus et al. 1984) demonstrate that the growth of Caribbean coral reefs will be unable to match all but the most optimistic predicted rates of sea level rise that global warming is expected to cause over the next few centuries| and| therefore| these reefs will gradually become more submerged. As they deepen| higher waves will propagate into back-reef areas| altering the ecological and sedimentological zonation patterns and accelerating the erosion of leeward shelves and shores. Resuspended sediment will increase the turbidity| causing the demise of sediment-sensitive corals and possibly entire reef communities. 4579,1998,4,4,Global warming deduced from MSU,Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) made from sequential| sun-synchronous| polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites have been used to derive global temperature trend for the period 1980 to 1996. Christy et al. (1998) emphasize that they find a tropospheric cooling trend (-0.046 K decade(-1)) from 1979 to 1997 with these MSU data| although their analysis of near nadir measurements yields a near zero trend (0.003 K decade(-1)). Using an independent method to analyze the MSU Ch 2 nadir data separately over global ocean and land| we infer that the temperature trends over both these regions are about 0.11 K decade(-1)| during the period 1980 to 1996. This result is in better agreement with trend analyses based on conventional surface data. 4534,1998,3,2,Global warming implications of replacing ozone-depleting refrigerants,Under the provisions established in the Montreal Protocol| many of the chlorofluorocarbon and hydrochlorofluorocarbon compounds that have grown popular as refrigerants must be phased out due to their ozone-depleting potentials. At the same time| governments around the globe are beginning to confront problems of anthropogenic global warming. Energy usage is one of the primary sources of the carbon dioxide emissions known to cause global warming. As a result| heating| ventilating| and air conditioning systems must be made more efficient. An overview is presented of the global warming implications of ongoing movements toward the replacement of ozone-depleting refrigerants. Potential refrigerants are evaluated with the total equivalent warming impact measure.
4668,1998,4,2,Global warming needs action says UK chief scientific adviser| Sir Robert May,In a paper published on 30 September 1997| based on work by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)| Sir Robert May| the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser| emphasises their view that humans are having a discernible effect on climate change. "On current trends| carbon dioxide will be present in the atmosphere at twice pre-industrial levels by around the middle of the next century|" said Sir Robert. "The IPCC predicts that such an increase would lead to an average global temperature increase of between 1.5 and 4.5C| most probable 2.5C. This may sound trivial but the estimated range of variability in global temperature over the past 1|000 years is around 1C."
4566,1998,3,4,Global warming: Least-cost electricity planning to meet CO2 emissions limits,This paper explores least-cost strategies for reducing CO2 emissions from the electric power industry. It uses an economic-engineering model for electric generation capacity expansion to investigate expansion plans which meet alternative CO2 emissions constraints in the lowest cost. The model selects the mix of various energy technologies| which are either presently in use or will possibly be in use in the future| to meet a specific carbon emissions limit and| furthermore| estimates the optimal tax required to achieve the least-cost strategy for reducing emissions to the desired level. Using Greece as a case study| the study suggests that to stabilize CO2 emissions at their 1990 level by the year 2005 and thereafter| the industry should move away from lignite generation to hydro and renewables and to coal or lignite technologies with CO2 removal capabilities. An optimal tax of $105 per toll of carbon is required to achieve this target in the lowest cost. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 4611,1998,4,5,Global warming: Science or politics| Part 1 - Which observations are correct?,The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a discernible influence of human activity on global climate is a statement employed as the foundation basis to intervene on behalf of the globe and the future. That statement| as scientific evidence of human-produced greenhouse gases (primarily CO2) having a warming effect on global climate is a political statement only. Further| the Kyoto conference to consider intervention in human activities regarding global warming was a political conference. Political and treaty issues were the focus; scientific issues were not much discussed. What change is needed then to scientifically determine global warming and to ascertain whether human activity is involved? A better understanding of the natural climate variations related to solar variation can improve understanding of an anthropogenic greenhouse effect on the climate. The purpose of this article is to pose the scientific question.
4600,1998,4,4,Global warming: Science or politics? Part 2,Part II. Examines the scientific and political issues concerning the predicted dire consequences of global warning. Natural resources consumption; Energy resources; Environmental fate; Flawed assumptions and modeling of global systems; Aspects of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC); Implications for the United States citizens and the economy; Need for intervention.
Whatever objections may be raised| it is clear that the issues of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions are not going to go away. Powerful lobbies on both sides of the argument will ensure that the debate continues| but pressures on governments and individual companies to act (and to be seen to be acting) are likely to grow rather than diminish| Financial incentives for "green" processes are also likely to increase| In this contest| the production of ethanol from sugar| as pioneered on large scale by Brazil| could give major economic and political benefits| above and beyond the ecological considerations which are the main subject of the following report.
4665,1998,4,3,Growth of fluoroform (CHF3| HFC-23) in the background atmosphere,There is growing concern over the emission and accumulation of very long-lived fluorinated trace gases in the atmosphere| due to their large global warming potentials (GWPs). Unlike CFCs and other ozone-depleting| chlorinated and brominated chemicals| consumption of these fluorinated compounds is not controlled by the Montreal Protocol or any other international agreement. Of all the known and potential trace 'greenhouse' gases| the two with the highest GWPs are sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) and fluoroform (CHF3| HFC-23). Whereas several studies have reported the detection and accumulation of SF6 in the atmosphere| the presence of HFC-23 has remained unreported. We have found that present-day HFC-23 concentrations (c. 11 pptv in late 1995) exceed those of SF6 by a factor of three. Concentrations have steadily increased in the atmosphere since at least 1978| and are continuing to do so at a present rate of 5% per year. Furthermore| HFC-23 appears to be long-lived in the atmosphere| with a stratospheric lifetime of at least 1000 years| and a modelled tropospheric lifetime of 230 years. In terms of global warming| the cumulative emissions of HFC-23 up to| and including| 1995 are equivalent to 1.6 billion tonnes of CO2. 4555,1998,3,4,Heat transfer from supercritical carbon dioxide in tube flow: A critical review,Since the discovery that CFCs and HCFCs destroy the ozone layer and cause global warming| the need to regulate their use has been critical. In the ensuing search for new environmentally benign refrigerants| carbon dioxide has been considered due to its excellent thermophysical properties. This paper gives a review of the heat transfer and pressure drop characteristics of supercritical carbon dioxide in tube flow. This information is necessary for designing the gas cooler of a carbon dioxide refrigeration system. A comparison of the different heat transfer correlations applicable to cooling of supercritical carbon dioxide has also been made. 4595,1998,2,3,Heavy precipitation processes in a warmer climate,Climate simulations have suggested that a greenhouse-gas induced global warming would also lead to a moistening of the atmosphere and an intensification of the mean hydrological cycle. Here we study possible attendant effects upon the frequency of heavy precipitation events. For this purpose simulations with a regional climate model are conducted| driven by observed and modified lateral boundary conditions and sea-surface temperature distributions. The modifications correspond to a uniform 2K temperature increase and an attendant 15% increase of the specific humidity (unchanged relative humidity). This strategy allows to isolate the effects of an increased atmospheric moisture content from changes in the atmospheric circulation. The numerical experiments| carried out over Europe and for the fall season| indicate a substantial shift towards more frequent events of strong precipitation. The magnitude of the response increases with the intensity of the event and reaches several 10s of percent for events exceeding 30 mm per day. These results appear to apply to all precipitation events dominated by sea-to-land moisture transport. 4596,1998,4,4,Height variations and secular changes in sea level,The problem of understanding| assessing and quantifying the causes of sea-level changes has received increased attention during the past several years| in particular in connection with predictions regarding a rise in the global mean se:a level due to global warming. The impact aspect of sea-level rise is of particular concern for many coastal areas in densely populated regions of the world. The present availability of space geodetic techniques providing high-accuracy measurements of station positions and of their time variations makes it possible to separate vertical crustal movements and absolute sea-level fluctuations. Gravimetric methods play an important role in the assessment of sea-level variations by providing completely independent measurements of vertical crustal movements. Satellite altimetry now enables the measurement of the spatial variability of sea level| Geological observations can infer former sea levels which are important to understand the present trends. This paper addresses the study of height variations and secular changes in sea level by discussing the most interesting questions and issues| by presenting the current understanding of the phenomena involved| and finally by illustrating the measuring and modeling techniques to be adopted for a comprehensive approach to the problem. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4623,1998,3,4,HFC-245fa as a blowing agent for water heater foam insulation,The North American water heater market has eliminated the use of the chlorofluorocarbon blowing agent CFC-11 in polyurethane insulation systems. Today the water heater market primarily uses the hydrochlorofluorocarbon blowing agent HCFC-141b. However| as a result of the Montreal Protocol| HCFC-141b is a transitional blowing agent| and must be replaced with "third generation" blowing agents by 2003. The next generation of blowing agents must have zero ozone depletion potential (ODP) and low global warming potential (GWP). Additionally for the water heater market| the blowing agent must produce foams with low thermal conductivity. Water heaters must conform to energy requirements established by the Department of Energy. Future legislation is expected to impose stricter requirements on the energy efficiency of water heaters. In addition to low thermal conductivity| there are other desirable features of a blowing agent for water heater insulation systems. The blowing agent should be a liquid at room temperature| with a boiling point similar to those of CFC-11 and HCFC-141b. The blowing agent should be miscible with many differentpolyols and processable in existing foam equipment. It should be non-flammable and nan-toxic. It should be reasonably priced and readily available. HFC-245fa has been identified as a primary candidate for a liquid| zero ODP blowing agent. The objective of this work was an evaluation of HFC-245fa in water heater insulation systems. Water heater foam systems using HFC-245fa were evaluated for stability| processability| physical properties| and energy performance. Results of these studies were compared to HFC-141b water heater foam systems. 4535,1998,4,4,High-pressure vapor-liquid and solid-gas equilibria using a Peng-Robinson group contribution method,In this paper| the new excess Gibbs energy mixing rule| which coupled with the consistent form with the quadratic composition dependence of the second virial coefficient and the excess Gibbs energy (G(0)(E)) at standard zero pressure| has been developed. This proposed mixing rule| combining a Peng-Robinson equation of state with the analytical solutions of groups (ASOG) group contribution method| provide a Peng-Robinson group contribution method (PRASOG). The PRASOG model has predicted the high-pressure vapor-liquid equilibria (VLE) for binary systems containing alcohols| acetone| and water using the available ASOG group pair parameters determined at low pressure with good accuracy. The ASOG parameters have also been shown for 31 group pairs relating to two gas groups| CO2 and CH4| which indicate potential for global warming| using binary experimental high-pressure VLE data in the temperature range 200-600 K. High-pressure VLE have then been correlated for 56 binary systems containing carbon dioxide and/or methane. These results are compared with those of the predicted Soave-Redlich-Kwong (PSRK) and linear combination of the Vidal and Michelsen (LCVM) models. Finally| using the group pair parameters that have been determined from VLE data| solid-gas equilibria have been predicted with fairly good accuracy for eight binary and one ternary systems containing carbon dioxide. 2310,1998,2,4,How environmental conditions affect canopy leaf-level photosynthesis in four deciduous tree species,Species composition of temperate forests vary with successional age (i.e.| years after a major disturbance) and seems likely to change in response to significant global climate change. Because photosynthesis rates in co-occurring tree species can differ in their sensitivity to environmental conditions| these changes in species composition are likely to alter the carbon dynamics of temperate forests. To help improve our understanding of such atmosphere-biosphere interactions| we explored changes in leaf-level photosynthesis in a 60-70 yr old temperate mixed-deciduous forest in Petersham| Massachusetts (USA). Diurnally and seasonally varying environmental conditions differentially influenced. in situ leaf-level photosynthesis rates in the canopies of four mature temperate deciduous tree species: red oak (Quercus rubra)| red maple (Acer rubrum)| white birch (Betula papyrifera)| and yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis). We measured in situ photosynthesis at two heights within the canopies (top of the canopy at similar to 20 m| and in the sub-canopy of the same individual trees at similar to 14-16 m) through a diurnal time course on 7 d over two growing seasons. We simultaneously measured a suite of environmental conditions surrounding the leaf at the time of each measurement. We used path analysis to examine the influence of environmental factors on insitu photosynthesis in the tree canopies. Overall| red oak had the highest photosynthesis rates| followed by white birch| yellow birch| and red maple. There was little evidence for a substantial midday depression in photosynthesis. Instead| photosynthesis declined throughout the day| particularly after 1600. Diurnal patterns of light reaching canopy leaves| leaf and air temperature| and Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) contributed to diurnally varying photosynthesis rates. Large differences in these parameters through the growing season partly led to the seasonal differences observed in photosynthesis rates. Path analyses helped to identify the relative contribution of various environmental factors on photosynthesis and further revealed that species-specific sensitivities to various environmental conditions shifted through the season. Red oak photosynthesis was particularly sensitive to air temperatures late in the season when air temperatures were low. Further| red maple photosynthesis was particularly sensitive to high VPDs through the growing season. Incorporating data on the physiological differences among tree species into forest carbon models will greatly improve our ability to predict alterations to the forest carbon budgets under various environmental scenarios such as global climate change| or with differing species composition. 4615,1998,2,4,Impact of global warming on the distribution and survival of the gelada baboon: a modelling approach,The gelada baboon is a graminivorous primate whose ecology is unusually sensitive to ambient temperature. A systems model of the socio-ecology of the gelada is used to predict the impact of global warming on the species' altitudinal distribution. The species' lower altitudinal limit will rise by approximate to 500 m for every 2 degrees C increase in global mean temperature. A 7 degrees C rise in temperature would be sufficient to result in the species being confined to a small number of isolated mountain peaks| where its chances of survival will be greatly reduced. Changes in local climate are also likely to have significant effects on agricultural practice on the Ethiopian highlands| and this in turn is likely to have repercussions for the distribution patterns of the gelada by further constraining the habitat available to them. 2322,1998,2,4,Implications of global climate change for tourism and recreation in wetland areas,Tourism and recreation are important economic activities which are major agents of change globally and| more specifically| in wetland areas. There is a regular round of activities associated with the seasons and anything which influences operating seasons is likely to have substantial consequences for tourism businesses. Atmospheric conditions influence both whether or not people will participate as well as the quality of the experience. In marine coasts| wetland recreations may be threatened by rising sea levels but recreation in inland water bodies may be affected more by deficiencies rather than superabundance of water. Marinas and recreational boating are harmed by extremes of both high and low water| particularly the latter which is the most likely situation under global climate change. Two main groups can be considered with respect to the potential to adapt to climate change. These are the participants themselves and the businesses which cater to them. It is argued that the former are likely to be much more adaptable than the latter. 2359,1998,2,4,Implications of harmful microalgae and heterotrophic dinoflagellates in management of sustainable marine fisheries,Worldwide increases in the frequency and spatial extent of blooms of harmful marine microalgae and heterotrophic dinoflagellates suggest that these species are becoming an increasingly important influence on year class strength of marine fishes through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Impacts on fish populations from harmful marine microalgae and heterotrophic dinoflagellates have been considered primarily from the limited view of acute or lethal influences. Accumulating evidence indicates that insidious sublethal and chronic impacts to both fish and human health from these organisms| such as long-term behavior alteration| increased susceptibility to cancers and other diseases| depressed feeding| and impaired reproduction| may be substantial and pervasive. For some harmful species| significant indirect impacts that promote critical habitat loss or disrupt the microbial food web balance also have been documented. Because successful models to predict the behavior and growth of most of these species have not yet been developed| and because toxins for many are poorly characterized| a clear anthropocentric focus has guided management strategies for confronting their outbreaks. The extent to which management takes the fundamental step of acknowledging scientifically demonstrated linkages among harmful microalgae| shellfish contamination| fish kills| and human health impacts has also been seriously constrained by political dictates stemming from economic considerations. Without federal involvement| and without catastrophe of human death or widescale serious human illness| little progress historically has been realized in the development of effective management strategies to mitigate lethal impacts to fish or other organisms. Many long-known taxa such as certain "red tide" dinoflagellates apparently can increase independently of human influences other than physical transport. However| some newly discovered toxic or otherwise harmful taxa have been correlated with cultural eutrophication in poorly flushed fish nursery grounds such as estuaries and coastal waters. Outbreaks of certain warm-optimal species have coincided with El Nino events| suggesting that warming trends in global climate change may stimulate their growth and extend or shift their range. The available information points to a critical need for a more proactive| concerted effort to determine the full range of chronic/sublethal effects| as well as acute impacts| on marine fish populations by harmful marine microalgae and heterotrophic dinoflagellates| so that their increasingly important influence can be factored into reliable plans for sustainable fisheries management.
4678,1998,3,2,Importance of nuclear generation in the struggles to reduce CO2 emission at Kansai Electric Power Co,It has been pointed out in recent years that the potential impacts of global warming has been becoming more and more serious because of the rapid increase of anthropogenic CO2 emission. Japan's annual CO2 emissions (fiscal 1994) amounted to 343 million tons of carbon. Although CO2 emissions caused by fossil-fuel power generation accounted for 29.4% of total| on a sector basis| those directly from the energy conversion sector accounted for only 7.7%| Most CO2 emissions (21.7% of total) resulted from electric power use in the industrial| commercial and domestic sectors. Thus| the reduction of CO2 emissions caused by the use of electricity is a nationwide subject| Understanding that both supply side and demand side approaches are necessary| Kansai Electric has been deploying "New ERA Strategy" as a comprehensive strategy to seek a potential for CO2 reduction mole broadly and deeply. Among a number of action items are the promotion of nuclear power generation| and improvement of overall energy efficiency besides such demand side measures as leveling off the peak load. The effectiveness of action items of the New ERA Strategy was evaluated in terms of CO2 reduction. As a result| estimated CO2 reduction related to nuclear power amounted to 88% of the total for fiscal 1995 in comparison with 1990| and that expected in 2000 is 84%| These results reconfirm that nuclear power is always the key to practical CO2 reduction at present and in the future. Comparison with candidate technology alternatives revealed that photovoltaic power generation needed 7 times greater rated capacity and 280 times larger area than nuclear power| so it is not realistic as a central power station alternative. The comparison also clarified that if wind power stations were constructed at all feasible sites in the Kansai region| they would not be a viable alternative to a single nuclear unit from CO2 duction viewpoint. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 2334,1998,2,4,Individualistic species responses invalidate simple physiological models of community dynamics under global environmental change,1. Most predictions of species distribution and abundance changes in response to global warming relate the individual requirements of a single isolated species to climate variables through some form of climate mapping. This method fails to account for the effects of species dispersal and species interactions| both of which may strongly affect distribution and abundance. 2. We therefore examined the effects of dispersal and species interactions on the distribution and abundance of three Drosophila species in a laboratory system that mimicked a latitudinal dine of 15 degrees C. We then investigated how species distribution and abundance in this system responded to simulated global warming. 3. Dispersal allowed populations to persist at non-optimum temperatures| overriding physiologically imposed range limits. 4. Temperature determined the outcome of competition. In pairwise interactions| Drosophila subobscura eliminated D. melanogaster or D| simulans at low temperatures but was itself eliminated at high temperatures. 5. Competitive interactions changed abundance and range sizes thus shifting the position of species optima. These changes depended on both the number and the identity of the competing species. 6. Enemy-victim interactions altered range and abundance. Adding the parasitoid Leptopilina boulardi affected the host assemblage directly at high temperatures where the parasitoid was present| and indirectly (mediated by dispersal) at low temperatures where it was scarce or absent. Host species coexisted for longer at low temperatures in dines when parasitoids were present than when they were absent. 7. Simulated global warming produced complex| counter-intuitive effects on distribution and abundance| including the reversal of species' relative abundance at some temperatures. 8. Because dispersal and species interactions strongly influenced both range and abundance (sometimes in unexpected ways) current species distributions are no guide to what they might be under global climate change. Furthermore| since both these factors are missing from climate envelope models of range and abundance change| their predictions are| at best| incomplete. 4633,1998,2,4,Influences of climatic change on some ecological processes of an insect outbreak system in Canada's boreal forests and the implications for biodiversity,Insect outbreaks are a major disturbance factor in Canadian forests. If global warming occurs| the disturbance patterns caused by insects may change substantially| especially for those insects whose distributions depend largely on climate. In addition| the likelihood of wildfire often increases after insect attack| so the unpredictability of future insect disturbance patterns adds to the general uncertainty of fire regimes. The rates of processes fundamental to energy| nutrient| and biogeochemical cycling are also affected by insect disturbance| and through these effects| potential changes in disturbance patterns indirectly influence biodiversity. A process-level perspective is advanced to describe how the major insect outbreak system in Canadian forests| that of the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. [Lepidoptera: Tortricidae])| might react to global warming. The resulting scenarios highlight the possible importance of natural selection| extreme weather| phenological relationships| complex feedbacks| historical conditions| and threshold behavior. That global warming already seems to be affecting the lifecycles of some insects points to the timeliness of this discussion. Some implications of this process-level perspective for managing the effects of global warming on biodiversity are discussed. The value of process-level understanding and high-resolution| long-term monitoring in attacking such problems is emphasized. It is argued that a species-level| preservationist approach may have unwanted side-effects| be cost-ineffective| and ecologically unsustainable. 4481,1998,2,4,Influences of large-scale climatic variability on episodic tree mortality in northern Patagonia,In the context of potential-global warming| it is critical that ecologists bridge the typically local spatial scale of ecology to the regional scale of climatology by linking ecosystem responses to variations in the large-scale synoptic controls of regional climates. In northern Patagonia| Argentina| we related regional-scale tree mortality events over the past similar to 100 years to annual and decadal-scale climatic variations associated with changes in the major synoptic climatic controls of the southeastern Pacific region| including the El Ni (n) over tilde o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In nine stands of Austrocedrus chilensis| a xeric conifer| we used dendrochronological techniques to date the outermost tree ring on dead-standing and fallen trees to estimate the dates of tree death for 336 trees. To evaluate climatic conditions during periods of high tree mortality| we used regional records of precipitation and temperature from six climate stations and also used a regional set of 24 tree ring chronologies from Austrocedrus. Good preservation of the resinous wood of Austrocedrus allowed relatively precise dating of tree deaths over the past similar to 90 years. Episodes of massive tree mortality coincide with exceptionally dry springs and summers during the 1910s| 1942-1943| and the; 1950s. Although there is a general regional synchroneity of tree death associated with drought| intra-regional variations in the intensity of droughts| as interpolated and mapped from the regional network of tree ring chronologies| are also reflected by north-to-south variations in tree mortality patterns. Periods of drought and associated tree mortality during the 20th century in northern Patagonia are strongly associated with above average sea level atmospheric pressure off the coast of Chile at the same latitudes. Temperature and precipitation in northern Patagonia are highly influenced by the intensity and latitudinal position of the southeastern Pacific anticyclone| which| in turn| are greatly affected by ENSO. Tree mortality in northern Patagonia appears to be intensified by extreme events of the Southern Oscillation and is more strongly coincident with El Ni (n) over tilde o events along the coast of northern Peru. These results| in combination with previously established climatic influences on fire occurrence and tree seedling establishment| strongly link stand-level and regional-scale forest dynamic processes in northern Patagonia with variations in large-scale atmospheric conditions. 4545,1998,3,4,Integrated infrared absorption coefficients of several partially fluorinated ether compounds: CF3OCF2H| CF2HOCF2H| CH3OCF2CF2H| CH3OCF2CFClH| CH3CH2OCF2CF2H| CF3CH2OCF2CF2H AND CH2=CHCH2OCF2CF2H,The integrated absorption coefficients of CF3OCF2H| CF1HOCF2H| CH3OCF2CF2H| CH3OCF2CFClH| CH3CH2OCF2CF2H| CF3CH2OCF2CF2H and CH2 = CHCH2OCF2CF2H have been measured at 298 K for use in calculations of their global warming potentials. The results for the ethers were compared to the integrated absorption coefficients of a standard compound| CCl3F. To assess the potential impact of the ethers on terrestrial infrared radiation| the absorption coefficients were both weighted by the Plank function and also used in the simple method of estimating the instantaneous radiative forcing given in Pinnock et al. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4532,1998,3,4,Investigation of CF3I as an environmentally benign dielectric etchant,In this study| trifluoroiodomethane (CF3I)| a non-global-warming gas| has been investigated as a substitute for typical PFC's currently used in wafer patterning and CVD chamber cleaning processes. Dielectric films consisting of plasma enhanced chemically vapor deposited silicon dioxide and silicon nitride were comparatively etched in CF3I and C2F6/O-2 plasma environments. The etch rate of these films was ascertained as a function of applied rf power| etchant gas flow rate| reaction chamber pressure| and CF3I:O-2 ratio. Destruction efficiencies of CF3I at different processing parameters were evaluated. Depending on the flow rate| rf power| and chamber pressure| utilization efficiency of CF3I varied from as low as 10% to as high as 68%. CF4| C2F6| COF2| and CO2 were the predominant by-products found in the exhaust stream; however| their concentrations were very low compared to the traditional process employing C2F6/O-2 mixtures. 4509,1998,3,3,Isolation of acidophilic methane-oxidizing bacteria from northern peat wetlands,Acidic northern wetlands are an important source of methane| one of the gases that contributes to global warming. Methane oxidation in the surface of these acidic wetlands can reduce the methane flux to the atmosphere up to 90 percent. Here the isolation of three methanotrophic microorganisms from three boreal forest sites is reported. They are moderately acidophilic organisms and have a soluble methane monooxygenase| In contrast to the known groups of methanotrophs| 16S ribosomal DNA sequence analysis shows that they are affiliated with the acidophilic heterotrophic bacterium Beijerinckia indica subsp. indica. 4531,1998,3,3,Italian policies for the diffusion of renewable energies to fight global warming,The necessity to find correct answers to the climate change issue represents the driving force that is increasing the potential role of the renewable sources in Italy as in most industrialised countries. A quantity between a forth and a fifth of the reduction of greenhouse gases necessary in Italy to comply with the Kyoto protocol could be derived from renewable sources.
4632,1998,3,4,Japanese automotive transportation sector's impact upon global warming,Automobiles are still increasing in number in Japan. If this continues| CO2 emissions in this sector may increase through the first half of the 21st century. Consequently| a study of measures for reducing these CO2 emissions is essential. In this paper| possible automotive technologies| improvements in fuel consumption and the introduction of electric vehicles are discussed. These measures are then evaluated for the Japanese case. Furthermore| market penetration of these technologies is evaluated| using life-cycle cost analysis based on initial cost and annual fuel cost. It is concluded that reducing CO2 emissions to 1995 levels by 2010 is possible. This would require the simultaneous implementation of fuel-consumption improvements and the introduction of electric vehicles. However| automotive consumers would be reluctant to accept these technologies| particularly electric vehicles| because of their high purchase-price and low benefits in terms of operating economy. Acceptance will require financial and institutional support from the public sector in introducing these automotive technologies into the Japanese transportation sector. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4493,1998,2,4,Kernel abnormalities in malting barley - determining terminology and assessment,Kernel abnormalities are favourably influenced by extreme weather conditions in the corn ripening phase. Frequent occurence of such phenomena has to be taken into consideration should there be a change in climate in central Europe due global warming. Abnormalities of kernels can inhibit the utilization of malting barley. Because of the varying importance in malting and brewing technology| each phenomena must be clearly separated from one another. Differences are made between grain with split kernels| incomplete overlapping of husks| damaged husks| second tillering and pre-harvest sprouting. As well as the environmental effects| genetic variability also becomes apparent which is valuable for the determination of plant breeding and variety selection. influences of technical production can significantly increase or even reduce the risk but are relatively insignificant when compared with the overall variability. The breeding of early ripening varieties should be encouraged| not only because of its relation to second tillering. Examination conditions in barley breeding and variety authorisation should be modified to favour early ripening varieties. 2363,1998,3,3,Key elements related to the emissions trading for the Kyoto protocol,The emissions trading first proposed by the US as a concrete idea is a promising policy framework to tackle the global climate change issue. It not only has its high cost efficiency/flexibility but also has big potential as an instrument which is profitable for both buyers and sellers and (must) enforce(s) the compliance with the emission limitations| in principle. It can be the incentives for economy in transition Parties to choose energy-saving economic development path and also for the developing country Parties to join the regime in the following phases. This paper focuses on its pragmatic aspects and clarifies its merits and problems to be solved in order to probe into its possibilities to be installed. Some related trading scheme on environmental issues are discussed to have implications for the climate change case. For climate change trading scheme| concrete proposals are suggested for the emissions budget approach and borrowing. In addition| an idea - packaging carbon taxation and emissions trading - is proposed for the establishment of the domestic emissions market which guarantees the compliance of the Protocol automatically. These elements and proposals are expected to be useful information to clarify the points for the international negotiations with some concrete images| not general ideas. (C) 1995 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4506,1998,3,3,Large scale carbon dioxide production from coal-fired power stations for enhanced oil recovery: A new economic feasibility study,Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technologies must be increasingly applied in order to sustain the current production capacity of conventional oil in Western Canada. Among these technologies| carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding is a highly attractive possibility. At the same time| a large amount of CO2 is being produced by coal-fired power plants in this region. The CO2 is currently discharged into the atmosphere and could be a major contributor to the so-called greenhouse effect| which would lead to global warming. Thus| the concept of capturing CO2 and utilizing it as a flooding agent in EOR processes is currently generating much interest among oil| utility and coal companies. This paper describes how cogeneration concepts| together with process optimization strategies| help to reduce the CO2 production cost by utilizing low-pressure steam and waste heat from various sections of the power generation process. Based on these concepts and strategies| results from this study show that the recovery cost of CO2 from a coal-fired power plant can range between $0.50 - 2.00/mscf. If the cost is approximately $1.25/mscf| the production cost of a barrel of incremental oil would be less than $18. Therefore| at modest oil prices| there is room for profit to be made operating a CO2 flood with flue gas extracted CO2. The technical and economic feasibility of the concepts are evaluated and practical implications for the Saskatchewan resources are discussed. 4521,1998,2,4,Large-scale deforestation for plantation agriculture in the hill country of Sri Lanka and its impacts,The forest cover in the hill country river catchment areas of Sri Lanka has been reduced to isolated patches on hilltops and a handful of reserves above the 1524 m (5000 ft) contour. Most of the land that was under forest cover at the turn of the nineteenth century is now covered with plantation crops. The districts of Kandy| Matale| Nuwara Eliya| Badulla| Ratnapura and Kegalle are the main hill country plantation areas. Within a period of less than half a century most of the forests in the hill country were cleared for plantation crops. Shifting cultivation was responsible for deforestation in the drier parts of the hill country. At the time of the British conquest of the hill country| the population of the whole island was not more than 3/4 to 1 million and they had settled in isolated villages at elevations below 1066 m. Subsistence agriculture was the main occupation of this predominantly rural population. During the first phase (1830-1880) of the plantation industry| large tracts of mostly forest land were cleared for coffee cultivation. By 1878| the extent of the coffee plantations reached its maximum of 111 336 ha most of which was situated in the wet zone hill country. The second phase of plantation agriculture began as the coffee industry was completely wiped out by a leaf disease. Most of the abandoned coffee plantations and the remaining forests were converted to tea| rubber and cinchona estates. The first two crops managed to survive price fluctuations in the world market| while the latter collapsed because of over production. During the period of large-scale deforestation in the hill country| the climate also underwent changes as exemplified by rainfall and temperature trends. However| these trends are not uniform everywhere in the plantation areas of the hill country. The temperature has risen a few degrees over a period of about a century and quarter in the hill country stations| while rainfall has declined significantly at some stations. These changes seem to be a result of the interaction of both global and local factors. Although some of these changes would have been a result of global warming| land use change would also have contributed to regional disparities. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 4680,1998,3,4,Lean burn natural gas engines as a possible power unit in urban fleets of heavy duty vehicles with low environmental impact,This work aimed to examine the possibility of creating natural gas urban bus fleets by applying lean burn technology. Different engine configurations were tested| keeping in consideration the necessity to ensure suitable performance| and to meet the European regulations. With the target torque and power| the severe European limits| were not met only for methane emissions. In addition| the GWI (global warming impact) values were also computed and compared with proposed limits expressly conceived for natural gas engines. The results showed that the NG lean burn engine at the present state of development does not appear able to meet the future requirements of both low NOx emissions and GWI| because of the difficulty of resolving the trade-off between NOx and HC. 4494,1998,3,2,Life cycle inventory analysis of national electricity supply system,The environmental aspects of the electricity supply system in Korea has been analyzed from the point of view of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). As an initial step| thermal power generation| which has the largest portion in national electricity system and is considered to release significant amounts of emissions| is defined as the system. All the inputs and outputs associated with the defined system has been identified and calculated based on the delivery of 1kWh electricity generated by thermal power to consumers. The national electricity supply system is a circle-network type connecting the whole country to a single super grid with all generators feeding into it and all consumers drawing from it. Thus| the national averaged data have been collected and used to describe the present system. The Life Cycle Inventory Analysis (LCI) results show that anthracite releases the largest amount of airborne emissions and LNG releases the smallest amount of emissions among the fuels used in thermal power generation. The most dominant airborne emission is CO(2) which is one of the main causes for global warming effect. Waterborne emissions like COD| SS| oil etc; and solid wastes such as waste synthetic resins and combustion ashes are also quantified. The results of the analysis carried out here will be a part of the basic database for indispensible electricity in LCA studies for almost all industries. 4495,1998,3,3,Lifetimes and global warming potentials for dimethyl ether and for fluorinated ethers: CH3OCF3 (E143a)| CHF2OCHF2 (E134)| CHF2OCF3 (E125),Using recent kinetic data| two-dimensional (2-D) chemical-transport modeling of the atmospheric lifetimes of dimethyl ether and fluorinated ethers CH3OCF3 (E143a)| CHF2OCHF2 (E134)| and CHF2OCF3 (E125) shows that E134 and E125 have substantially larger lifetimes than previously estimated. Dimethyl ether has a short atmospheric lifetime of 5.1 days and a relatively insignificant radiative forcing leading to a relatively low global warming potential. Increasing fluorination is accompanied by slower rates of reaction with hydroxyl radical and ultimately longer lifetimes. E143a| E134| and E125 were found to have lifetimes of 5.7| 29.7| and 165 years| respectively. In addition| our work uses ab initio methodology to determine IR absorption cross sections for each ether. Our study finds that E134 and E125 have significant infrared absorption and thus relatively high radiative forcing values. These two properties together yield global warming potentials for E134 and E125 of 5720 and 14|000| respectively| integrated over a 100 year period. 2329,1998,4,4,Long-term climate change and main commercial fish production in the Atlantic and Pacific,Main Atlantic and Pacific commercial species of the subtropic| subarctic and arctic zones - Atlantic and Pacific herring; Atlantic cod; European| South African| Peruvian| Japanese and Californian sardine; South African and Peruvian Anchovy; Pacific salmon; Alaska pollock; Chilean jack mackerel and some others - undergo long-term simultaneous oscillations. The total catch of these highly abundant species equals about 50 percent of the total Atlantic and Pacific marine fish harvest. The dynamics of northern hemispheric surface air temperature anomaly (dT) can hardly be correlated with long-term dynamics of marine commercial fish production because of high inter-annual variability. The so called atmospheric circulation index (ACI) characterizing a dominant direction of air mass transport was found to be closely related with long-term fluctuations of the main commercial stocks. This index has been registered over the Northern Hemisphere or more than 100 years using the Wangengeim-Girs method. Correlation coefficients between commercial catches and ACI dynamics in the period of 1900-1994| stayed in the range of 0.70-0.90. The global character of the ACI dynamics is confirmed by its close correlation with such global geophysical characteristics as the earth rotation velocity index (ERVI). Approximately 50-70 year simultaneous cycles were observed in stock dynamics of the main commercial species| ACI and ERVI. The dynamics of main commercial stocks in both Atlantic and Pacific follow the alternation of the so-called circulation epochs (meridional or 'latitudinal'). The long-term changes of dT| ACI| ERVI and commercial stock dynamics display the beginning of new climate-production phase similar to that of 1950-1970s. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4654,1998,2,4,Long-term exposure to small temperature increase and sublethal ammonia in hard water acclimated rainbow trout: does acclimation occur?,Juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss; initially 2-5 g) were exposed for 90 days to either ambient water temperature (natural thermal regime) or to +2 degrees C superimposed above the ambient water temperature (simulated global warming scenario)| in the presence or absence of a nominal 70 mu M total ammonia (1290 mu g l(-1) ionized (NH4+)| 10 mu g l(-1) unionized (NH3) ammonia). The exposures were conducted in moderately hard de-chlorinated water from Lake Ontario ([Ca2+]=0.96+/-0.02 mM| [Na+]=0.55+/-0.01 mM| [Cl-]=0.737+/-0.004 mh?) on three occasions: over summer (temperature range| 13.0-21.0 degrees C; pH=7.57+/-0.26) and winter (temperature range| 3.5-7.0 degrees C; pH=7.46+/-0.02) without food limitation (satiation feeding)| and during summer (temperature range| 13.0-18.5 degrees C; pH=7.38+/-0.09) with food limitation (1% daily| or restricted ration). Lethal temperature| lethal ammonia (1.8 mM total ammonia; approximately 31 700 mu g l(-1) NH4+| 900 mu g l(-1) NH3)| and lethal temperature plus ammonia challenges were conducted after each 90-day exposure to determine whether or not chronic pre-exposure conferred any increased tolerance to elevated temperature or ammonia. In addition| acute sublethal ammonia challenges (1.0 mM total ammonia; approximately 17 800 mu g l(-1) NH4+| 200 mu g l(-1) NH3)| together with unidirectional Na+ flux measurements| were conducted after the two summer exposures to gain further insight into the effects of prior sublethal ammonia exposure on Na+ regulation| as influenced by ration. The juvenile trout on unlimited ration and exposed to a warming scenario of +2 degrees C exhibited a slight| but significant elevation in lethal temperatures in both summer and winter| but the effect was not observed in fish fed a restricted ration. A challenge to lethal temperature and ammonia in combination reduced the lethal temperature anywhere from 3-7 degrees C for fish from all treatments; pre-exposure to ammonia offered some protective effect. However| prior ammonia exposure did not prolong survival times (LT(50)s) during lethal ammonia challenge| and there was no evidence of acclimation to elevated external ammonia with respect to Na+ balance| These results suggest that juvenile trout are likely to adapt to a small temperature increase| such as could be associated with a global warming scenario| but their potential for doing so may be restricted by sublethal ammonia and by nutritional status. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. 4624,1998,4,4,Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming,Many attempts to predict the biotic responses to climate change rely on the 'climate envelope' approach(1-3)| in which the current distribution of a species is mapped in climate-space and then| if the position of that climate-space changes| the distribution of the species is predicted to shift accordingly(4-6). The flaw in this approach is that distributions of species also reflect the influence of interactions with other species(7-10)| so predictions based on climate envelopes may be very misleading if the interactions between species are altered by climate change(11). An additional problem is that current distributions may be the result of sources and sinks(12)| in which species appear to thrive in places where they really persist only because individuals disperse into them from elsewhere(13|14). Here we use microcosm experiments on simple but realistic assemblages to show how misleading the climate envelope approach can be. We show that dispersal and interactions| which are important elements of population dynamics(15)| must be included in predictions of biotic responses to climate change. 4627,1998,2,4,Malaria epidemics on the Highlands of Madagascar and of East and South Africa.,The Highlands of Madagascar were malaria free until 1878| when a severe epidemic occurred| following the development of irrigated rice farming. Then| the disease became endemic. Between 1949 and 1962| malaria was "eradicated" on the Highlands by joint house spraying and chemoprophylaxis measures. The main vector An. funestus disappeared. In 1986-1988| a very severe epidemic with high lethality rate devastated the Highlands. It is now under control. Thanks to the data of a religious dispensary we could follow the evolution of malaria on the Highlands from 1971 to 1995. The number of cases begin to grow in 1975 when the surveillance was neglected. A second step was observed in 1979| when chemoprophylaxis/chemotherapy centres were closed. Then| the increase of malaria became exponential up to 1988. At the time the prevalence had became similar to that of 1948| before the eradication. The epidemic is not due to global warming because the temperature has been stable for the last 30 years. The malaria rise was due the cancellation of control measures. When control was reactivated| the epidemic ceased. In Swaziland Zimbabwe and South Africa| malaria epidemics were also due to control failure. In Uganda Highlands| above 1500 m malaria rise seems linked to the environmental changes| e.g. the cultures which replace papyrus swamp in the valley But malaria did not overcame the altitude of 1900 which it had already reached in 1960. Rainfall should also be considered as a key factor in the epidemics. In the Sahel West Africa| temperature increased from 0|5 degrees C to 01 degrees C degree in the last 25 years| but rainfall decreased from 30 %. As a result| one of the vector; Anopheles funestus disappeared and malaria prevalence dropped by 60 to 80 %. It is not acceptable to predict the future evolution of malaria in taking in account only one parameter : the temperature. The whole factors involved in the epidemiology should be taken into account The predictions based only on the temperature increase (global warming) can be totally wrong if the rainfall| for example decreases. 2366,1998,2,4,Malaria in the African highlands: past| present and future,Many of the first European settlers in Africa sought refuge from the heat and diseases of the plains by moving to the cool and salubrious highlands. Although many of the highlands were originally malaria free| there has been a progressive rise in the incidence of the disease over the last 50 years| largely as a consequence of agroforestry development| and it has been exacerbated by scarce health resources. In these areas of fringe transmission where the malaria pattern is unstable| epidemics may be precipitated by relatively subtle climatic changes. Since there is little immunity against the disease in these communities| outbreaks can be devastating| resulting in a substantial increase in morbidity and death among both children and adults. We present here the results obtained using a mathematical model designed to identify these epidemic-prone regions in the African highlands and the differences expected to occur as a result of projected global climate change. These highlands should be recognized as an area of special concern. We further recommend that a regional modelling approach should be adopted to assess the extent and severity of this problem and help improve disease surveillance and the quality of health care delivered in this unstable ecosystem. 2313,1998,2,4,Managing the nations water in a changing climate,Among the many concerns associated with global climate change| the potential effects on water resources are frequently cited as the most worrisome. In contrast| those who manage water resources do not rate climatic change among their top planning and operational concerns. The difference in these views can be associated with how water managers operate their systems and the types of stresses| and the operative time horizons| that affect the Nation's water resources infrastructure. Climate| or more precisely weather| is an important variable in the management of water resources at daily to monthly time scabs because water resources systems generally are operated on a daily basis. At decadal to centennial time scales| though| climate is much less important because (1) forecasts| particularly of regional precipitation| are extremely uncertain over such time periods| and (2) the magnitude of effects due to changes in climate on water resources is small relative to changes in other variables such as population| technology| economics| and environmental regulation. Thus| water management agencies find it difficult to justify changing design features or operating rules on the basis of simulated climatic change at the present time| especially given that reservoir-design criteria incorporate considerable buffering capacity for extreme meteorological and hydrological events. 2360,1998,4,4,Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient for marine conservation,The intensity of human pressure on marine systems has led to a push for stronger marine conservation efforts. Recently| marine reserves have become one highly advocated form of marine conservation| and the number of newly designated reserves has increased dramatically. Reserves will be essential for conservation efforts because they can provide unique protection for critical areas| they can provide a spatial escape for intensely exploited species| and they can potentially act as buffers against some management miscalculations and unforeseen or unusual conditions. Reserve design and effectiveness can be dramatically improved by better use of existing scientific understanding. Reserves are insufficient protection alone| however| because they are not isolated from all critical impacts. Communities residing within marine reserves are strongly influenced by the highly variable conditions of the water masses that continuously flow through them. To a much greater degree than in terrestrial systems| the scales of fundamental processes| such as population replenishment| are often much larger than reserves can encompass. Further| they offer no protection from some important threats| such as contamination by chemicals. Therefore| without adequate protection of species and ecosystems outside reserves| effectiveness of reserves will be severely compromised. We outline conditions under which reserves are likely to be effective| provide some guidelines for increasing their conservation potential| and suggest some research priorities to fill critical information gaps. We strongly support vastly increasing the number and size of marine reserves; at that same time| strong conservation efforts outside reserves must complement this effort. To date| most reserve design and site selection have involved little scientific justification. They must begin to do so to increase the likelihood of attaining conservation objectives. 2353,1998,3,3,Meeting the energy and climate challenge for transportation in the United States,Mitigating global climate change will require a profound transformation of energy use sectors throughout the world and this challenge is particularly acute for the United States transportation sector. Market forces alone are unlikely to change transportation-energy technologies and infrastructures sufficiently to address the needs for an environmentally sustainable system. A set of policies for encouraging technological advances and promoting sustainable planning| operations| and pricing of transportation services was analysed for its effects on sector energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Baseline projections show US transport sector GHG emissions increasing over the 1990 level 28% by 2010 and 58% by 2030. The combined impacts of the policies analysed would be substantial emission reductions that grow over time| with GHG emissions returned to the 1990 level by 2010 and cut to 35% lower by 2030. Due to fuel savings from technology-based efficiency improvements| it was found that the economic benefits accruing from these reductions would outpace costs almost from the outset. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4604,1998,5,3,Metamorphic CO2 degassing from orogenic belts,Kerrick and Caldeira (1993| 1994a) concluded that metamorphic CO2 degassing in collisional orogens| and especially the Himalayan orogenic belt| could have been an important factor in enhancing paleoatmospheric CO2 levels and contributing to early Cenozoic global greenhouse warming [Kerrick| D.M.| Caldeira| K.| 1993. Paleoatmospheric consequences of CO2 released during early Cenozoic regional metamorphism in the Tethyan orogen. In: Touret| J.L.R.| Thompson| A.B. (Guest-Eds.)| Fluid-Rock Intel.action in the Deeper Continental Lithosphere. Chem. Geol. 108| 201-230.] [Kerrick| D.M.| Caldeira| K.| 1994a. Metamorphic CO2 degassing and early Cenozoic paleoclimate. GSA (Geol. Sec. Am.) Today 4| 57-65.]. However| our revised CO2 mass loss computations for regional metamorphism in the Himalaya-Karakoram belt incorporating recent geochronologic data and revised estimates of the proportion of carbonate source rocks indicate that metamorphic CO2 degassing from this orogen cannot explain Early Eocene warmth. Widespread pluton-induced hydrothermal flow occurred during the Eocene in the Cordilleran belt of western North America. Synmetamorphic intrusions| which are common in metamorphic belts| may cause significant regional fluid flow. To obtain a representative CO2 flux from such environments| we computed a CO2 flux of 1.5 x 10(12) mol km(-2) Ma(-1) from petrologic and geochemical studies of the Paleozoic plutonic-metamorphic belt in New England (northeastern United States). For the 2 X 10(6) km(2) area of Eocene metamorphism in the North American Cordillera| the CO2 fluxes derived from the New England metamorphic belt yield an area-integrated flux of similar to 3 x 10(18) mol Ma(-1). If a significant fi action of this CO2 entered the atmosphere| this degassing flux would alone account for Eocene greenhouse global warming. For the Ominica belt within the Cordilleran orogen| a volumetric estimate of the mass of carbonate veins indicates that the consumption of CO2 by precipitation of carbonate veins may not significantly decrease the amount of CO2 in fluids that convect to near-surface crustal levels. Compared to other Eocene metamorphic belts| the widespread hydrothermal activity in the North American Cordillera may have been the largest| and most climatically significant| source of metamorphic CO2 to the Eocene atmosphere. CO2 degassing by active metamorphism is most significant in extensional regimes of high heat flow. Extensional tectonism and hydrothermal activity in metamorphic belts may have substantially contributed to atmospheric CO2 content throughout the Phanerozoic. Examples include the Mesozoic circum-Pacific metamorphic belt| and Oligocene-Miocene regional metamorphism in the Himalayan orogen. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4514,1998,3,3,Methane production of raw and composted solid waste in simulated landfill cells,Methane contributes approximately 20% to the annual increase in global warming| and is explosive at concentrations of 5 to 15% in air. Landfills are the origin of approximately 15% of the total global methane emissions. This study was conducted to determine the potential decrease in methane production from municipal landfills if the organic components of solid waste (SW) are composted Frier to landfilling. The quantities and rates of methane production were measured using simulated landfill cells containing composted and raw simulated SW. The SW was composted in an open pile and characterized by temperature| pH| ash content and CO(2) evolved during aerobic respiration. Assuming a 10% lignin content| the labile carbon fraction was reduced by an estimated 71% during composting. Over a 6-month period| simulated landfill cells filled with raw waste generated 66 liters methane per kg of dry refuse| while cells containing composted SW produced 31 liters methane per kg of dry compost. Per unit weight of the original dry raw SW| composted SW placed in a simulated landfill environment produced only 15 liters methane per kg dry raw SW which is 23% of the methane that was generated when the raw SW was placed directly in the simulated landfill cells. 4620,1998,2,3,Missing sinks| feedbacks| and understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon balance,Terrestrial ecosystems are thought to be a major sink for carbon at the present time. The endeavor to find this terrestrial sink and to determine the mechanisms responsible has dominated terrestrial research on the global carbon cycle for years. Some of the mechanisms advanced to explain the "missing sink" are also negative feedbacks to a global warming. Here we distinguish between mechanisms likely to act as feedbacks to a global warming and other mechanisms consistent with a terrestrial sink that are not feedbacks to a global warming. One of the postulated negative feedback mechanisms that also helps explain the current "missing sink" is based on the theory that carbon should accumulate in vegetation as a result of a warming-enhanced mineralization of nitrogen in soil organic matter. The theory assumes that mineralized N is neither retained in the soil (through reimmobilization by microbial biomass) nor lost from the ecosystem| but rather becomes available for plant growth. None of these assumptions is supported yet by field data. In contrast| trends across existing climatic gradients suggest that warmer temperatures will lead to a decrease in the C:N ratio of soils (i.e.| the mineralized N remains in soil). Data pertaining to temporal variability in the global carbon balance are conflicting with respect to the question of whether increasing temperatures cause a release or storage of terrestrial carbon. The answer seems to depend in part on time scale. Most likely| multiple mechanisms| including some that release carbon and others that accumulate it| account for the present net accumulation of carbon on land. However| a positive feedback between temperature and the release of CO(2) to the atmosphere by terrestrial respiration seems likely to grow in importance and could change significantly the role that terrestrial ecosystems play in the global carbon balance. 4484,1998,2,4,Model estimates of methane emission from irrigated rice cultivation of China,A model developed by the authors (Huang et al. 1998) was further validated against field measurements from various regions of the world and calibrated to estimate methane emission from irrigated rice cultivation of China. On the basis of available information on rice cultivated area| growth duration| grain yield| soil texture and temperature| methane emission from Chinese rice paddies was estimated for 28 rice cultivated provinces in mainland. The calculated daily methane emission rates| on a provincial scale| ranged from 0.15 to 0.86 g m(-2) with an average of 0.32 g m(-2). Five of the top six locations with higher daily methane emissions are located at a latitude between 28 degrees and 31 degrees N. A total amount of 9.66 Tg (1 Tg = 10(12) g) CH(4) per year| ranging from 7.19 to 13.62| was estimated to be released from Chinese rice paddy soils. Of the total| 45% is emitted from the single-rice growing season| and 19% and 36% are from the early-rice and the late-rice growing seasons| respectively. Approximately 70% of the total is emitted in the region located at latitude between 25 degrees and 32 degrees N. The emissions from rice fields in Sichuan and Hunan Province were calculated to be 2.85 Tg y(-1)| accounting for approximate to 30% of the total. Comparisons of the estimated and the observed emission rates show that the estimates were| in general| close to the measurements at most locations. 4664,1998,4,3,Modelling global warming and Antarctic sea-ice changes over the past century,An atmosphere-sea-ice model is used in combination with results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice model to examine the changes of the Antarctic sea-ice cover influenced by atmospheric circulation associated with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) changes alone over the past century. Using the current climatological SST of Reynolds for forcing| a reasonable seasonal simulation of the Antarctic sea-ice cover for the present climate (including ice concentration| thickness and coverage) is obtained. When global SST anomalies for the past century (derived from the coupled atmosphere ocean-sea-ice model) are imposed| sea ice becomes more extensive| on the annual average| by 0.7-1.2 degrees of latitude| more compact by about 5-7%| and thicker by 7-13 cm| than at present. These changes are similar to those simulated from changes in greenhouse gases using the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice model which gave corresponding changes of about 0.8 degrees of latitude in extent| 6% in ice concentration and 12 cm in ice thickness. The simulated change in annual mean global surface temperature by the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice model was 0.7 K (0.6 K over the ocean including sea ice) which is similar to the observed change. Over the Antarctic the corresponding simulated change is 1.2 K which also appears compatible with observations. 4663,1998,2,4,Modelling the long-term response of the Antarctic ice sheet to global warming,The primary effects of global warming on the Antarctic ice sheet can involve increases in surface melt for limited areas at lower elevations| increases in net accumulation| and increased basal melting under floating ice. For moderate global warming| resulting in ocean temperature increases of a few OC| the barge increase in basal melting can become the dominant factor in the long-term response of the ice sheet. The results from ice-sheet modelling show that the increased basal melt rates lead to a reduction of the ice shelves| increased strain rates and flow at the grounding lines| then thinning and floating of the marine ice sheets| with consequential further basal melting. The mass loss from basal melting is counteracted to some extent by the increased accumulation| but in the long term the area of ice cover decreases| particularly in West Antarctica| and the mass loss can dominate. The ice-sheet-ice-shelf model of Budd and others (1994) with 20 km resolution has been modified and used to carry out a number of sensitivity studies of the long-term response of the ice sheet to prescribed amounts of global warming The changes in the ice sheet are computed out to near-equilibrium| but most of the changes take place within the first few thousand years. For a global mean temperature increase of 3 degrees C with an ice-shelf basal melt rate of 5 m a(-1) the ice shelfs disappear within the first few hundred years| and the marine-based parts of the ice sheet thin and retreat. By 2000 years the West Antarctic region is reduced to a number of small| isolated ice caps based on the bedrock regions which are near or above sea level. This allows the warmer surface ocean water to circulate through the archipelago in summer| causing a large change to the local climate of the region. 4679,1998,3,3,Modelling vehicle emissions using the TEMIS program - Part 2: case studies,Many challenges are associated with the ever increasing level of energy consumption and the damage to the environment caused by the pollutants from all sectors. On the local level the problem is associated with matters such as noise and air pollution| while on the global level the problems are associated with acid rain| ozone layer depletion and the greenhouse effect (global warming). The transport sector is a major contributor in this respect. The use of appropriate decision-making tools to assist in the assessment of alternative transport policies is required urgently. One such tool is the TEMIS program which was described in Part 1 of this investigation| where the methodology for the enhancement of TEMIS was reported. The enhanced version of TEMIS has subsequently been used to model the effects of different transport scenarios in order to improve future fuel economy and the adverse effects of air emissions as well as the greenhouse gases. In the present paper| three main case studies have been considered to test the effect of different scenarios tin terms of alternative fuels and technical advances) on energy consumption and emissions: firstly| the switch to alternative fuels| through investigating the effects of switching from petrol to diesel| secondly| the effects of switching from diesel to bio-diesel (for buses) and| finally| the effects of technical advances (three-way catalytic converters) and the effects on fuel consumption and emissions are considered. 4576,1998,2,4,Mosquito-borne arboviruses in Australia: the current scene and implications of climate change for human health,Of the mosquito-borne arboviruses| the encephalitic Murray Valley encephalitis and Kunjin viruses are a major public health concern| but the arthritides Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses are more important in a public health sense| being responsible for a far greater number of infections. Reported cases of Ross River totalled approximately 30 000 during 1991-1996; there have been several widely separated outbreaks of Barmah Forest in recent years and case reports are increasing annually. Surveillance programmes have increased our understanding of the geographic regions| climatic conditions and vector factors associated with viruses. Virus activity is widespread but is often localised| is driven primarily by mosquito abundance and various species are involved; host factors are involved also| but are not well understood. Typically| mosquito populations are governed by availability of habitat and environmental conditions. Models of climate change predict increases in rainfall| tides and temperature for parts of Australia| and such changes have the potential to increase the risk of arbovirus transmission by increasing the distribution and abundance of vectors| and duration of mosquito and arbovirus seasons. However| the amplitude of climate change is uncertain and the ecology of arbovirus transmission is complex. It is likely that some areas will have increases in arbovirus activity and human infection with predicted climate change| but risk of increased transmission will vary with locality| vector| host and human factors. (C) 1998 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 2342,1998,2,4,Mountain lakes; Sensitivity to acid deposition and global climate change,Lakes in mountainous areas are of special interest in environmental studies because such lakes are generally particularly sensitive to inputs of atmospheric pollution and to changes in climate. Mountain lakes provide| therefore| an early warning of more widespread environmental changes. Surveys of lake-water chemistry in mountain areas in Norway| and mountain areas elsewhere in Europe which have crystalline bedrock| clearly show that such lakes are generally very dilute with low concentrations of base cations| alkalinity and SO42-. Mountain lakes also have low concentrations of total-P and TOC. The low concentrations of inorganic and organic ions are due to several factors of which low weathering rates| thin soils| high water fluxes and sparse vegetation in the catchment are of major importance. NO| concentrations on the other hand| are often higher in mountain lakes relative to low elevation lakes in the same area| due to the lower retention capacity of atmospherically deposited N in mountain catchments. 4666,1998,3,4,Natural replacements for ozone-depleting refrigerants in eastern and southern Asia,A computer model has been written to predict the consumption of refrigerants for vehicle air conditioning in China| India| South Korea and South-East Asia| their effect on ozone depletion and global warming| and their costs. A simple logarithmic relationship between per capita income and population growth rate is assumed. Correlations between vehicle ownership and air-conditioning usage are obtained from worldwide data. Both synthetic HFC (134a) and natural (hydrocarbons) refrigerants are considered. Sample calculations| assuming reasonable economic growth rates| predict that the use of hydrocarbons will lead to significant reductions in global warming potential and large savings in cost. The synthetic HFC option will incur costs exceeding a billion US dollars per year after the year 2005. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd and IIR. AII rights reserved. 4606,1998,3,4,Natural resource management in mitigating climate impacts: the example of mangrove restoration in Vietnam,The risk that tropical storm occurrence may alter as a result of global warming presents coastal managers| particularly in vulnerable areas| with a serious challenge. Many countries are hard-pressed to protect their coastal resources against present-day hazards| let alone any increased threat in the future. Moreover| the threat posed by climate change is uncertain making the increased costs of protection difficult to justify. Here| we examine one management strategy| based on the rehabilitation of the mangrove ecosystem| which may provide a dual| "win-win" benefit in improving the livelihood of local resource users as well as enhancing sea defences. The strategy|therefore|represent a precautionary approach to climate impact mitigation. This paper quantifies the economic benefits of mangrove rehabilitation undertaken| inter alia| to enhance sea defence systems in three coastal Districts of northern Vietnam. The results of the analysis show that mangrove rehabilitation can be desirable from an economic perspective based solely on the direct use benefits by local communities. Such activities have even higher benefit cost ratios with the inclusion of the indirect benefits resulting from the avoided maintenance cost for the sea dike system which the mangrove stands protect from coastal storm surges. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4647,1998,3,3,Nitrogen removal and N2O emission in a full-scale domestic wastewater treatment plant with intermittent aeration,Nitrous oxide (N2O) is emitted from wastewater treatment processes. It is known as a greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming (over 200 times more per molecule than carbon dioxide) and to the destruction of the ozone layer. It is therefore of great importance to develop technology that can suppress N2O emission. The effects of an anoxic period on N2O emission and nitrogen removal were investigated in an actual domestic wastewater treatment plant. When operated with intermittent aeration| most of the N2O was emitted into the atmosphere during the aerobic period. N2O emission from the intermittent process was estimated to be 0.43-1.89 g N2O person(-1) year(-1). Maintaining a dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration of over 0.5 mg l(-1) during the aerobic period resulted in the complete conversion of the influent NH4-N to NO3-N and a 60-min anoxic period was sufficient for denitrification to be completed. The findings show that an optimum combination of aerobic and anoxic conditions and their suitable control are very important for improving nitrogen removal efficiency and controlling N2O emission. 4559,1998,2,4,Nitrous oxide emissions from a fallow and wheat field as affected by increased soil temperatures,In order to determine the effects of increased soil temperature resulting from global warming on microbiological reactions| a 21-month field experiment was carried out in the Bavarian tertiary hills. The major objective was to focus on N2O releases as either a positive or negative feedback in response to global warming. The soils of a fallow field and a wheat field were heated 3 degrees C above ambient temperature and N2O fluxes were measured weekly from June 1994 to March 1996| During the experimental period| measured temperature differences between the control plots and the heated plots were 2.9+/-0.3 degrees C at a depth of 0.01m and 1.0-1.8 degrees C at a depth of 1 m| Soil moisture decreased with the elevated soil temperatures of the heated plots| The mean differences in soil moisture between the treatments were 6.4% (fallow field) and 5.2%(DW) (wheat field dry weight| DW)| respectively. Overall N2O releases during the experimental period from the fallow field were 4.8 kg N2O-N ha(-1) in the control plot against 5.0 kg N2O-N ha(-1) in the heated plot| and releases from the wheat field were 8.0 N2O-N ha(-1) in the control plot and 7.6 N2O-N kg ha(-1) in the heated plot. However| on a seasonal basis| cumulated N2O emissions differed between the plots. During the summer months (May-October)| releases from the heated fallow plot were 3 times the rates from the control plot. in the winter months| N2O releases increased in both the fallow and wheat fields and were related to the number of freezing and thawing cycles. 4660,1998,3,2,Nuclear power in the global energy-environmental system,Reducing the CO2 emission to cope with the global warming is one of the most challenging issues for the global energy system. Among various technological options for reducing the CO2 emissions from energy production| nuclear power is expected to play a key role if accepted by the society. However| there have been fewer model analyses reported recently on the role of nuclear power in the global energy system when compared with the analyses of the other options such as energy efficiency improvements| renewable energies| and CO2 recovery and disposal. This paper presents| with a newly developed global energy model| a numerical analysis on the value of nuclear option in the global energy system| particularly in terms of CO2 mitigation. With the global energy model| which finds the cost minimum energy system over the time range of 1995-2055| the value of nuclear power is analyzed. The model incorporates detailed descriptions of energy conversion technologies which include| besides electricity generation| various liquefaction and gasification processes of hydrocarbon fuels with the options of CO2 recovery and disposal. For nuclear technologies| LWRs (light water reactors) and FBRs (fast breeder reactors) are taken into account with fuel cycle options. Major findings are: 1) LWRs would be introduced at the maximum level into the cost minimum energy system if their economics is slightly improved from the standard assumption; however| 2) the maximum introduction of LWRs would make only a small effect in reducing the global CO2 emissions; 3) FBRs would be introduced at an almost maximum scale when the stabilization of global CO2 emission is required; 4) the role of FBRs in reducing the global CO2 emission is very robust against the deterioration of their economics; and 5) IGCC (integrated coal gasification combined cycle power generation) with CO2 recovery would replace the role when FBRs are not introduced| (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 4564,1998,5,3,Oceanic plateau formation: a cause of mass extinction and black shale deposition around the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary?,The Cenomanian-Turonian boundary (90.4 Ma) represents a major period of worldwide environmental disturbance. The physical manifestations of this are: elevated atmospheric and oceanic temperatures; a significant sea-level transgression; and a period of widespread anoxia| leading to the formation of oceanic black shales| and the extinction of 26% of all genera. Elevated delta(13)C values and enrichment of trace elements in Cenomanian-Turonian boundary sediments| combined with a reduction in Sr-87/Sr-86| also imply a severe environmental perturbation. At this time oceanic crustal production rates reached their highest level of the last 100 million years. This was principally caused by extensive melting of hot mantle plumes at the base of the oceanic lithosphere| and the development of vast areas (up to 1 x 10(6) km(2)) of thickened oceanic crust in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The anomalous volcanism associated with the formation of these oceanic plateaux may have been responsible for the environmental disturbances c. 90 Ma. These eruptions would also have resulted in the emission of large quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere| leading to global warming. Additionally| the emission of SO2| H2S| CO2 and halogens into the oceans would have made seawater more acidic resulting in the dissolution of carbonate| and further release of CO2. This run-away greenhouse effect was probably put into reverse| by the decline of the anomalous Volcanic activity| and by increased (CO2-driven) productivity in oceanic surface waters| leading to increased organic carbon burial| black shale deposition| anoxia and mass extinction in the ocean basins. 4569,1998,2,4,On the climate forcing of carbon monoxide,Carbon monoxide plays a primary role in governing OH abundances in the troposphere. It is likely that through this chemical interaction| CO plays an important role in climate forcing by affecting CH4 concentrations. We use a photochemical box model to estimate the indirect global warming potential (GWP) of tropospheric carbon monoxide resulting from its effect on methane abundances. We also consider indirect GWPs of CO due to carbon dioxide production and possible CO GWP ranges due to ozone production to estimate a total CO indirect GWP range over various time horizons. We estimate that for current emission levels| the short-term (<15 years) cumulative radiative forcing due to the direct anthropogenic emission of CO may be larger than the cumulative forcing due to anthropogenically emitted N2O. 4502,1998,3,3,On the study of energy performance and life cycle cost of smart window,With worldwide energy cost rising significantly| there has been a pressing need to reduce the burning of fossil fuels and subsequently energy consumption. This| coupled with the prospect of global warming threatening human habitation| has made countries including Singapore more conscious and aware of the energy problem at hand. This paper deals with smart window| a double glazing unit where one pane consists of a high-performance heat reflective glass and the other coated with low-emissivity (low-e) coating. This combination of glazing provides optimum energy efficiency and a high level of daylight transmission with minimal reflectance. A study is made on the benefits derived from smart window done on a hypothetical 20-storey building. This encompasses a description of its quantitative impact on cooling load| energy consumption and energy savings achieved as compared with other forms of glazing. Following this| a detailed life cycle costing is done to determine the economic benefits attained from this type of glazing. The reduction of atmospheric pollutants as a result of using smart window is also analysed| and the future application of the glazing in hot and humid climates is discussed. In conclusion| it is observed that the smart window meets the technical and economic targets set| thus making it a viable long-term investment for high-rise commercial buildings. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. 4530,1998,2,3,Past and future carbon balance of European ecosystems from pollen data and climatic models simulations,As climate changes| there is considerable uncertainty whether northern hemisphere ecosystems will act as atmospheric CO2 sinks or sources. Here| we used statistical models calibrated on field measurements| past terrestrial biomes and climates inferred from pollen and future climatic change scenarios simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs)| to investigate the processes controlling past| present and future CO2 fluxes in the European ecosystems. Our results suggest that climatic change can significantly affect spatial and temporal variations of net primary production and soil respiration| and alter the net ecosystem exchange of CO2. Most of the potential terrestrial biomes in Europe will likely change from a net CO2 sink| which provided a negative feedback for atmospheric CO2 during the last 13 000 yr BP| to a net CO2 source| providing a positive feedback following global warming. The results further illustrate that there is no analogue in the recent past (Late Quaternary) for the probable future ecosystem dynamics. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4482,1998,2,3,Phenology and growth of shoots| needles| and buds of Douglas-fir seedlings with elevated CO2 and (or) temperature,Increased atmospheric CO2 and global warming may affect overall tree growth| but impacts of these combined stresses are largely unknown in terms of multiple growing season impacts on specific flushes. Thus| the effects of ambient or elevated CO2 (approximately 200 mu mol.mol(-1) above ambient) and ambient or elevated temperature (approximately 4 degrees C above ambient) were evaluated for both main and second (lammas) flushes of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) France). Established seedlings were grown for three full growing seasons in outdoor| sunlit chambers| which maintained diel and seasonal variation in climate. A reconstructed forest soil was used with a seasonal wet and dry cycle and without added fertilizer. Compared with ambient CO2 elevated CO2 had no impact on overall phenology and growth of terminal shoots| needles| or buds. In contrast| compared with ambient temperature| elevated temperature resulted in higher shoot and needle growth rates early in the season; reduced final terminal shoot length; and either reduced| increased| or unchanged final needle length| depending on season. Initiation of the lammas flush was delayed and (or) decreased at elevated temperature. Leading terminal bud break and growth occurred earlier; however| resting bud length was reduced| and bud width tended to increase with elevated temperature. Thus| at least during early seedling growth| elevated temperatures may reduce both main- and lammas-flush growth| thereby altering tree productivity| whereas elevated CO2 may have little effect on main or lammas growth at either the current or elevated temperature. 4609,1998,2,4,Photosynthetic acclimation to temperature and drought in the endemic chelan rockmat| Petrophytum cinerascens (Rosaceae),Petrophylum cinerascens (Piper) Rydb. (Rosaceae) is a highly restricted endemic found on steep rocky outcrops and sandy soils along the Columbia River in eastern Washington. Our goal was to examine the plant's ability for photosynthetic acclimation to increased growth temperature. Plants collected from the field were subjected to three sets of day/night growth temperatures and to two different watering regimes. Leaf gas exchange was measured at step-intervals of leaf temperature. Data were fitted to individual temperature response curves| and the optimum temperature for assimilation (T-opt)| the high temperature compensation point (T-high) and assimilation rate at the optimum temperature for assimilation (A(opt)) were calculated from the regressions. We analyzed the data using a 3 x 2 split plot experimental design with growth temperature as the main effect and watering treatment as the split plot factor. A(opt) for plants grown at 30/16 and 34/20 C was significantly greater than that for plants grown at 38/24 C| but the main effects of growth temperature on T-opt and T-high were not significant. The relative decrease in A(opt) from the lowest growth temperature to the highest was almost 60% for well-watered plants and over 20% for plants with periodic drought treatments. The lack of change in T-opt and T-high| coupled with the decrease in A(opt) with increased growth temperature| suggests that P. cinerascens is not able to acclimate to increased global temperature and therefore may serve as a sensitive indicator species of global warming. 4552,1998,2,4,Physiological effects of sublethal acid exposure in juvenile rainbow trout on a limited or unlimited ration during a simulated global warming scenario,Changes in the physiology and cost of living of fish were studied during exposure to simulated global warming and environmental acidification| alone and in combination. Trout were exposed to slightly elevated water temperatures (+2 degrees C)| in the presence and absence of sublethal acidity (pH 5.2) in synthetic softwater for 90 d (8 degrees-12 degrees C). Fish were either fed to satiation (ca. 1%-3% of their wet-body weight daily) or fed 1% of their wet-body weight once every 4 d. Satiation-fed fish exposed to sublethal pH showed no ionoregulatory disturbances but exhibited increased appetites and growth compared to fish in control pH waters. In contrast| fish maintained on a limited ration did not grow and showed typical ionoregulatory responses to acid stress| with lower whole-body Na+ and Cl- concentrations and greater mortality. Detrimental effects were greater in the global warming scenario (+2 degrees C). Overall| a slight temperature increase and sublethal pH increased the cost of living as determined by increased food consumption in satiation-fed fish and greater mortalities in fish maintained on a limited ration. Most important| these findings suggest that fish given sufficient food can compensate for increased energy expenditure or difficulties in maintaining ion balance associated with low pH exposure. 4669,1998,3,4,Plantation forestry in Brazil: Projections to 2050,Brazil is fortunate in having large areas of land that are not currently forested but that are suitable for silvicultural plantations. Changes in the area and regional distribution of the country's silvicultural plantations imply a wide variety of environmental and social impacts. Projections of future development of plantation silviculture are needed for analyzing these impacts| as well as to serve as a reference scenario for evaluating the potential effects of climatic change on Brazil's plantations| and for the related task of evaluating the implications of proposals to combat global warming by increasing the area of silvicultural plantations in Brazil beyond the extent to which they would otherwise expand. Such a reference scenario provides the control| or "business as usual" standard| against which one can compare the situation as affected by climatic change and/or by additional silvicultural or other activities carried out to help mitigate climatic change. Assuming constancy of climate| technology| per-capita consumption of wood products| and Brazil's share of international trade| the area of plantations in 2050 would be 3.2 times larger than the area in 1991. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4616,1998,3,4,Plasma etching of dielectric films using the non-global-warming gas CF3I,In this study| trifluoroiodomethane (CF3I)| a non-global-warming gas| has been investigated as a substitute for typical PFCs currently used in wafer patterning and CVD chamber cleaning processes. Dielectric films consisting of plasma enhanced chemically vapor deposited silicon dioxide and silicon nitride were comparatively etched in CF3I and C2F6/O-2 plasma environments. The etch rate of these films was ascertained as a function of applied rf power| etchant gas flow rate| reaction chamber pressure and CF3I:O-2 ratio. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. 4619,1998,3,4,Plasma etching of dielectric films with novel iodofluorocarbon chemistries: Iodotrifluoroethylene and 1-iodoheptafluoropropane,The use of two novel etch chemistries belonging to the iodofluorocarbon family| iodotrifluoroethylene and 1-iodoheptafluoropropane| has been investigated in a dielectric etch application. These substances are being explored as potential alternatives to perfluorocompounds| a fully fluorinated class of etchants that is presently in widespread use in dielectric etch processes. Whereas perfluorocompounds have global warming properties once emitted into the atmosphere| iodofluorocarbons such as those discussed in this work are presently believed not to possess long-term environmental impacts. Under the conditions tested| the two iodofluorocarbons discussed in this work have both been found to etch silicon dioxide films readily. Note that 1-iodoheptafluoropropane has also been found to be capable of etching silicon nitride films under these conditions. An Applied Materials Precision 5000 etch tool was used in this work. (C) 1998 American Vacuum Society. [S0734-2101(98)01202-0]. 2350,1998,2,4,Population trends of the Galapagos penguin: Impacts of El Nino and La Nina,The Galapagos Penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus) population probably has always been small and largely restricted to the islands of Fernandina and Isabela. Counts suggest the current population of Galapagos Penguins is likely between 4|250 and 8|500| half of what it was in the early 1970s. Population size has varied and declined probably because of substantial changes in oceanic conditions. Body condition as evidenced by weight is enhanced during cold surface water conditions| La Nina| and deteriorates when surface waters are warmed| El Nino| and under the most severe conditions| penguins starve. Analysis of a long-term data set from counts of the population suggests that the population has fluctuated| dropping precipitously after the 1982-1983 El Nino and has since then been recovering very slowly. This parallels the overall warming in the Pacific during the last 20 years associated with the more frequent El Nino and less frequent La Nino events. These trends suggest that long-term global climate warming is likely to threaten the Galapagos Penguin population particularly because the population is small and its distribution restricted. New threats from climatic warming and increasing human perturbations such as fishing| inadvertent discharge of petroleum products| and transport of potential predators and pathogens to islands increase the risk of extinction. 4490,1998,5,4,Portrait of a late paleocene (early Clarkforkian) terrestrial ecosystem: Big Multi Quarry and associated strata| Washakie Basin| Southwestern Wyoming,In-depth understanding of past climatic and biotic change requires the study of ancient ecosystems. However| terrestrial plants and vertebrates are preferentially preserved under very different taphonomic conditions| and diverse fossil floras and faunas are rarely found in close association. Big Multi Quarry and associated strata in the uppermost Fort Union Formation of the Washakie Basin| southwestern Wyoming| provide a uniquely detailed record of terrestrial fauna| flora| and climate during the early Clarkforkian. The Clarkforkian Land Mammal Age| approximately the last million years of the Paleocene| wars an interval of global warming that had profound biotic consequences. The mammalian fauna of Big Multi Quarry| consisting of 41 species| is the most diverse known from a single Clarkforkian locality. Unlike most other Clarkforkian faunas| this assemblage is not significantly biased against small forms. Lipotyphlan insectivores were dominant| and arboreally adapted taxa were abundant and diverse. The closely associated and well-preserved fossil plant assemblage was overwhelmingly dominated by a single species belonging to the birch family. Floral richness| heterogeneity| and evenness were as low as in the Tiffanian of the same region| showing that forest structure remained monotonous even as climate warned and mammals diversified in the Clarkforkian. The plant assemblage more closely resembles middle than early Clarkforkian floras of northern Wyoming| suggesting northward migration| of the ranges of plant taxa coincident with warming. A great deal of research has focused on the unusually warm interiors of continents in the terminal Paleocene and early Eocene. Multiple lines of evidence from our study| including sedimentological indicators| analyses of the nearest living relatives and functional analogues of the fossil plants and animals| size and margin analysis of fossil leaves| and cenogram analysis of the mammalian fauna| indicate that southwestern Wyoming had a humid subtropical climate with little or no seasonal frost or marked dry season| well before the terminal Paleocene. 2312,1998,2,4,Potential effects of differential day-night warming in global climate change on crop production,Recent studies on the nature of global warming indicate the likelihood of an asymmetric change in temperature| where night-time minimum temperature increases more rapidly than the daytime maximum temperature. We used a physically based scenario of asymmetric warming combined with climate change scenarios from General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs and the EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) plant process model to examine the effects of asymmetric temperature change on crop productivity. Our results indicated that the potential effects of global change on crop productivity may be less severe with asymmetric day-night warming than with equal day-night warming. 4637,1998,2,4,Potential effects of global warming on the occurrence of Japanese pest insects,The potential effects of global warming on the occurrence of four types of Japanese pest insects were studied by developing a computer program. The number of generations of each insect under present thermal condition and after 2 degrees C warming at 960 locations in Japan where temperature data was measured by the AMeDAS system was estimated. Thermal summation and daylength models were used to describe insect development and deleterious effects of low and high temperatures on the insects. In most regions| a non-diapausing insect| Plutella xylostella would complete two additional generations compared to the present. In a winter diapausing insect| Chile suppressalis| the northern boundaries of zones of two and three generations would shift northward by about 300 km. A cold weather susceptible insect| Tribolium confusum| would expand its distribution area northward| but the northern front of its distribution would not shift markedly| except for in the central mountainous regions of the Main Island. Ephestia kuhniella| which is susceptible to hot weather| would not be able to occur in the western part of the Main Island and Shikoku and Kyushu Islands due to high temperatures in summer| leading to a large shrinkage in its distribution area in Japan. Our results demonstrated that the effects of global warming on insect occurrence would be significant| but should vary depending on the biological characters of the insects. 4512,1998,2,3,Potential effects of global warming on waterfowl populations breeding in the Northern Great Plains,The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the Northern Great Plains is the most important breeding area for waterfowl in North America. Historically| the size of breeding duck populations in the PPR has been highly correlated with spring wetland conditions. We show that one indicator of climate conditions| the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)| is strongly correlated with annual counts (from 1955 to 1996) of both May ponds (R-2 = 0.72| p < 0.0001) and breeding duck populations (R-2 = 0.69| p < 0.0001) in the Northcentral U.S.| suggesting the utility of PDSI as an index for climatic factors important to wetlands and ducks. We then use this relationship to project future pond and duck numbers based on PDSI values generated from sensitivity analyses and two general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. We investigate the sensitivity of PDSI to axed changes in temperature of 0 degrees C| +1.5 degrees C| +2.5 degrees C| and +4.0 degrees C in combination with fixed changes in precipitation of -10%| +0%| +7%| and +15%| changes spanning the range of typically-projected values for this region from human-induced climatic change. Most (11 of 12) increased temperature scenarios tested result in increased drought (due to greater evapotranspiration under wanner temperatures) and declining numbers of both wetlands and ducks. Assuming a doubling of CO2 by 2060| both the equilibrium and transient GCM scenarios we use suggest a major increase in drought conditions. Under these scenarios| Northcentral U.S. breeding duck populations would fluctuate around means of 2.1 or 2.7 million ducks based on the two GCMs| respectively| instead of the present long-term mean of 5.0 million. May pond numbers would fluctuate around means of 0.6 or 0.8 million ponds instead of the present mean of 1.3 million. The results suggest that the ecologically and economically important PPR could be significantly damaged by climate changes typically projected. We make several recommendations for policy and research to help mitigate potential effects. 4612,1998,2,4,Potential impacts of climate change on species richness in mountain forests - An ecological risk assessment,In this ecological risk assessment we evaluated potential climate-induced vegetation changes in mountain forests of Central Europe and possible impacts on species richness. The analysis was performed on all 1 km grid points of the Swiss forest inventory (c. 11|500 points) as well as on two subsets representing the forested points within the geographical limits of two inventories of legally protected reserve areas. The core of the approach is (a) a conceptual model of the movement of climatic ranges along altitudinal gradients as a result of global warming and (b) a spatially explicit forest community simulator that predicts a potential natural vegetation unit for any given 1 km grid point of the Swiss forest inventory for both current climate and for altered climate regimes| The model is derived from empirical data featuring the relationships between quasi-natural vegetation types and measured site variables. Species richness for any modelled forest community is estimated on the basis of phytosociological releves. The conceptual model showed that out of 109 legally protected landscapes| sites and natural monuments of national importance (minimum area > 1 km(2)) about 40-50% have an altitudinal or degree-day range that is able to host migrating species within the reserve limits if climate is warming in a moderate way (increase of mean annual temperature between +1.0 and + 1.4 degrees C). In the case of strong warming (increase of mean annual temperature between + 2.0 and + 2.8 degrees C) only 20-30% fulfil this criterion. The spatially explicit forest simulator showed that under a temperature increase without simultaneous increase in precipitation (warmer and more xeric due to increased evapotranspiration| Fagus-dominated communities in the colline-submontane belt might eventually be replaced by oak-hornbeam (Carpinion) communities. In the montane belt| the dominance of conifers will be seriously threatened by an invasion of deciduous species from the low montane and submontane belt. Under warmer and wetter conditions the vegetation shifts might not be as drastic as under warmer and more xeric conditions and the shift towards oak and oak-hornbeam communities on the Plateau is not supported. Concerning species richness| the models showed that in the case of warmer temperatures and constant precipitation (warmer and more xeric due to increased evapotranspiration) overall species richness is increasing on all I km points of the Swiss Forest Inventory| as well as on all selected subsets representing the forested points within legally protected reserve areas| In the case of warmer and wetter conditions the risk assessment does not show any drastic changes in the long-term species richness. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 2336,1998,2,4,Potential impacts of climate change on tropical Asian forests through an influence on phenology,Changes in plant phenology will be one of the earliest responses to rapid global climate change and could potentially have serious consequences both for plants and for animals that depend on periodically available plant resources. Phenological patterns are most diverse and least understood in the tropics. In those parts of tropical Asia where low temperature or drought impose a seasonal rest period| regular annual cycles of growth and reproduction predominate at the individual| population| and community level. In aseasonal areas| individuals and populations show a range of sub- to supra-annual periodicities| with an overall supra-annual reproductive periodicity at the community level. There is no evidence for photoperiod control of phenology in the Asian tropics| and seasonal changes in temperature are a likely factor only near the northern margins. An opportunistic response to water availability is the simplest explanation for most observed patterns where water is seasonally limiting| while the great diversity of phenological patterns in the aseasonal tropics suggests an equal diversity of controls. The robustness of current phenological patterns to high interannual and spatial variability suggests that most plant species will not be seriously affected by the phenological consequences alone of climate change. However| some individual plant species may suffer| and the consequences of changes in plant phenology for flower- and fruit-dependent animals in fragmented forests could be serious. 4575,1998,2,3,Potentially complex biosphere responses to transient global warming,Feedback interactions between terrestrial vegetation and climate could alter predictions of the responses of both systems to a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Most previous analyses of biosphere responses to global warming have used output from equilibrium simulations of current and future climate| as compared to more recently available transient GCM simulations. We compared the vegetation responses to these two different classes of GCM simulation (equilibrium and transient) using an equilibrium vegetation distribution model| MAPSS. Average climatologies were extracted from the transient GCM simulations for current and doubled (2 x) CO2 concentrations (taken to be 2070-2099) for use by the equilibrium vegetation model. However| the 2 x CO2 climates extracted from the transient GCM simulations were not in equilibrium| having attained only about 65% of their eventual 2 x CO2 equilibrium temperature change. Most of the differences in global vegetation response appeared to be related to a very different simulated change in the pole to tropic temperature gradient. Also| the transient scenarios produced much larger increases of precipitation in temperate latitudes| commensurate with a minimum in the latitudinal temperature change. Thus| the (equilibrium) global vegetation response| under the transient scenarios| tends more to a greening than a decline in vegetation density| as often previously simulated. It may be that much of the world could become greener during the early phases of global warming| only to reverse in later| more equilibrial stages. However| whether or not the world's vegetation experiences large drought-induced declines or perhaps large vegetation expansions in early stages could be determined by the degree to which elevated CO2 will actually benefit natural vegetation| an issue still under debate. There may occur oscillations| perhaps on long timescales| between greener and drier phases| due to different frequency responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere interactions. Such oscillations would likely| of themselves| impart further reverberations to the coupled Earth System. 4635,1998,3,3,Power generation for the twenty-first century: what role for nuclear?,A key element of the sustainable development challenge is meeting the world's future energy needs. With increasing industrialization in the developing world| the demand for electricity is growing. This has important implications for the security of supply of resources and environmental impacts. These issues bear especially on the continued use of fossil fuels for power generation. While there is uncertainty about ultimate fossil fuel reserves| they are finite and there must be concerns over the long-term security of supply. Perhaps of greater significance is the impact of increasing fossil use on the emission of greenhouse gases and the associated threat of global warming. While the need to give higher priority to increased efficiency| particularly in energy use is clear| it is necessary also to look to the increased use of non-fossil sources for power generation. This points to the future role for nuclear| which is the main focus for the present paper. The paper examines critically the barriers to the further development and wider use of nuclear power and their resolution. This is of vital importance if nuclear is to fulfil its potential in meeting the objectives of sustainable development. 4527,1998,4,2,Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: Comparison of observations with HadCM2 simulations,Recent century-long experiments performed with global climate models have simulated observed trends in global-mean temperature quite successfully when both greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing has been included. The performance of these same experiments in simulating observed global-scale changes in precipitation has not previously been examined. Here we use a gridded terrestrial precipitation dataset for the period 1900 to 1996 to examine the extent to which observed global and zonal-mean precipitation sensitivities to global warming have been captured by a series of model simulations recently completed by the UK Hadley Centre. There are signs that the model has been able to reproduce at least some of the observed zonal-mean variations in the precipitation sensitivity to warming. Questions remain both about the quality of the observed precipitation data and about the spatial scale at which anthropogenically-forced global climate models can be expected to reproduce observed variations in precipitation. 2324,1998,2,4,Predicting key malaria transmission factors| biting and entomological inoculation rates| using modelled soil moisture in Kenya,While malaria transmission varies seasonally| large inter-annual heterogeneity of malaria incidence occurs. Variability in entomological parameters| biting rates and entomological inoculation rates (EIR) have been strongly associated with attack rates in children. The goal of this study was to assess the weather's impact on weekly biting and EIR in the endemic area of Kisian| Kenya. Entomological data collected by the U.S. Army from March 1986 through June 1988 at Kisian| Kenya was analysed with concurrent weather data from nearby Kisumu airport. A soil moisture model of surface-water availability was used to combine multiple weather parameters with landcover and soil features to improve disease prediction. Modelling soil moisture substantially improved prediction of biting rates compared to rainfall; soil moisture lagged two weeks explained up to 45% of An. gambiae biting variability| compared to 8% for raw precipitation. For An. funestus| soil moisture explained 32% variability| peaking after a 4-week lag. The interspecies difference in response to soil moisture was significant (P < 0.00001). A satellite normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) of the study site yielded a similar correlation (r(2) = 0.42 An. gambiae). Modelled soil moisture accounted for up to 56% variability of Art. gambiae EIR| peaking at a lag of six weeks. The relationship between temperature and An. gambiae biting rates was less robust; maximum temperature r(2) = -0.20| and minimum temperature r(2) = 0.12 after lagging one week. Benefits of hydrological modelling ore compared to raw weather parameters and to satellite NDVI. These findings can improve both current malaria risk assessments and those based on El Nino forecasts or global climate change model projections. 4657,1998,3,3,Prediction of blast furnace performance with top gas recycling,Top gas recycling has been suggested as a method for reducing blast furnace fuel rates and thus reducing carbon emissions from the ironmaking process. Three methods of top gas recycling are numerically investigated using a mathematical model to predict the furnace performance at fixed blast volume and constant coke| ore and pulverised coal compositions with varying recycle volumes. For each recycling method| a first calculation sequence is performed varying recycle volume at fixed ore:fuel ratio| and also a second sequence at fixed average liquid metal outflow temperature. Simple replacement of normal blast gases with recycled top gas is predicted to cause the production rate to decrease and the fuel rate to increase. Likewise| oxygen enriched blast replacement has similar effects| although the severity is less as the blast oxygen rate is maintained in this case. Both of these methods reduce furnace efficiency. Hot reducing gas (HRG) replacement| where CO2 is stripped from the recycled gas| leads to an increase in production of up to 25% with a simultaneous decrease in fuel rate of 20% at fixed metal temperature| These calculations show that top gas recycling could be used to increasing furnace efficiency while decreasing carbon emissions thus making a positive contribution to efforts to prevent global warming. 4631,1998,4,4,Prediction of methane production from dairy cows using existing mechanistic models and regression equations,Ruminants may contribute to global warming through the release of methane gas by enteric fermentation. Until now| methane emissions from ruminants were estimated using simple regression equations. The objective of this study was to compare the capacity of dynamic and mechanistic models to that of regression equations to predict methane production from dairy cows. The updated version of the model of Baldwin et al. and a modified version of the model of Dijkstra et al. and the regression equations of Blaxter and Clapperton and Moe and Tyrrell were challenged With 32 experimental diets selected from 13 publications. The predictive capacity-of mechanistic models and regression equations was evaluated by comparing predicted and observed methane production using regression analysis. Results of regression showed better prediction of methane production with mechanistic models than with regression equations. The modified model of Dijkstra et al. predicted methane production with the higher R(2) (.71) and the smaller error of prediction (19.87% of the observed mean). The model of Baldwin et al. predicted methane production with a similar R(2) (.70) but a higher error of prediction (36.93%). However| a large proportion of this error can be eliminated by a correction factor. Predictions using the equations of Moe and Tyrrell and Blaxter and Clapperton were poor (R(2) = .42 and .57; error of prediction = 33.72% and 22.93%| respectively). This study demonstrated that from a large variation in diet composition| mechanistic models allow the prediction of methane production more accurately than simple regression equations. 4638,1998,2,4,Projections at sea-level change in Hudson and James Bays| Canada| due to global warming,The potential impact of global warming on sea-level rise in the Hudson Bay area was examined. Land-based ice melt and thermal expansion of ocean waters were compared to isostatic rebound rates. Thermal expansion was estimated using a one-dimensional analysis and a three-dimensional world ocean general circulation model. It was found that the combined impact on sea-level rise of land-based ice melt and thermal expansion of the world ocean was the same order of magnitude as the sea-level fall rates due to isostatic rebound. Thus| there is the possibility of a cessation or reversal of sea-level fall in the Hudson Bay area in the next 100 yr. 4683,1998,3,2,Proposal of a new high-efficient gas turbine power generation| system utilizing waste heat from factories,It has been required to reduce the emission of CO2 for mitigating the global warming. As one of means for reducing CO2 emission| constructing high-efficient power generation systems is important| since the quantity caused by power generation is enormous and high-efficient system has a possibility to be widely installed from the economic point of view. In this paper| a H2O turbine power generation system utilizing waste heat from factories is proposed. In the proposed system| the steam produced by utilizing waste heat from factories is adapted as working fluid of a gas turbine. Thus| the system can be high efficient because the most part of a turbine output can be used for driving electric power generator: this is different with a conventional gas turbine power generation system where approximately two third of turbine output is consumed to compress the working fluid gas (air). Simulation programs have been developed by using object-oriented-language CSS lo evaluate various characteristics of the proposed system. The total exergetic efficiency of the system has been estimated to be 57.5% and the fuel-base exergetic efficiency to be 63.6%| when a refuse incineration plant has been taken as an example of waste-heat-emitting factories. The comparison with| the characteristics of a gas turbine system using a dual fluid cycle has also been performed. It has been shown that the proposed system has higher exergetic efficiency. The potential of CO2 reduction by installing the proposed system was also investigated. 2308,1998,3,4,Public perceptions of global warming: United States and international perspectives,National and international survey data on global warming are summarized in terms of levels of awareness| actual knowledge| degree of concern| perceived risk| and willingness to pay or sacrifice to mitigate or adapt to potential negative impacts. The data indicate the following: solid awareness of and support for general environmental goals; an awareness of and concern for global warming; a flawed understanding of global warming that is the result of an inappropriate application of a general pollution model; considerable perceived threat from global warming but less so than for most other issues; and a limited willingness to sacrifice to better cope with global warming. Although global warming generates concern around the globe| it is not a 'front-burner' issue. Concern tends to be highest in Canada| most of Europe and South America. Errors in assessing causes of global warming are global in nature. International data demonstrates considerable support for economic sacrifices to deal with environmental problems| including global warming. Our own data support but go beyond earlier data by implying that global warming is not a salient issue| and that people across the globe will support global climate change initiatives that do not levy unusual hardships; but they cannot be expected to voluntarily alter their lifestyles. 4517,1998,2,4,Rapid micro-evolution and loss of chromosomal diversity in Drosophila in response to climate warming,Concern regarding the ecological impact of rapid global warming has encouraged research on climate-induced changes in biological systems. Critical problems| still poorly understood| are the potential for rapid adaptive responses and their genetic costs to populations. The O chromosomal polymorphisms of Drosophila subobscura have been monitored at a southern Palearctic locality experiencing sustained climate warming since the mid-1970s. Observations suggest that the population is rapidly evolving in response to the new environmental conditions| and has lost a significant amount of chromosomal diversity (18.3% in 16 years). These findings are consistent with results from another population of D. subobscura| which is also undergoing climate warming| and are in accord with what would be expected from latitudinal and seasonal patterns of the various inversions. In addition| data on the O chromosomal polymorphisms from other localities throughout the range of this species suggest that other populations vary similarly. 4485,1998,2,4,Rates and magnitudes of paraglacial fan formation in the Garhwal Himalaya: implications for landscape evolution,The development of paraglacial fans| studied in the upper Bhagirathi valley| Garhwal Himalaya| northern India| relates to the retreat of the Gangotri Glacier over the last 200 years. These fans demonstrate the speed by which mass movement and fluvial processes may lead to the modification and readjustment of the Himalayan landscapes during deglaciation. The paraglacial fans in this region grew within approximately 100 years of deglaciation| and there after were modified by small debris flows and entrenched by fluvial incision. On the basis of the preservation of moraines which were deposited during the Last Glacial| total resedimentation of glacial sediments by mass movement and fluvial processes is estimated to occur over approximately 100|000 years in this region. A knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of development of paraglacial fans is essential for hazard mitigation and management in Himalayan environments where glaciers are presently retreating and are likely to retreat in the near future if global warming occurs. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4617,1998,2,3,Recent increase in the length of the melt season of perennial Arctic sea ice,General circulation models predict that greenhouse gas induced global warming will be amplified in the Arctic as a result of temperature-albedo feedback. Whilst recent observations of decreasing Arctic sea ice extent are consistent with this scenario| the possibility that such a trend is attributable to local effects at the ice margins rather than to atmospheric warming cannot be dismissed. In the absence of direct air temperature measurements| warming over Arctic sea ice may be inferred from an increasing duration of the summer melt season. Analysis presented here of the dates of spring melt and autumn freeze-up observed over a large fraction of perennial Arctic sea ice using passive microwave data from the SMMR and SSM/I from 1979 to 1996 reveals an increase of 5.3 days (8%) per decade in the number of melt days per summer. 4542,1998,3,4,Reflections on the past and future of fusion and plasma physics research,Research in basic plasma physics and in controlled thermonuclear fusion are briefly compared. The development of fusion from the 1958 Geneva conference to present machines is sketched and intervening factors are analysed together with the interplay between smaller and larger thermonuclear machines. The importance of close ties between universities and fusion laboratories is underlined and the need for regrouping some of the latter| as machine size increases| is examined. The daunting size of the energy needs of mankind around 2050 as compared with supply and the threats of global warming demonstrate the crucial importance of constructing ITER| the international experimental reactor| very soon now that the necessary physical data have been obtained. It is our deep moral obligation to convince the public at large of the enormous promise and urgency of controlled thermonuclear fusion asa safe| environmentally friendly and inexhaustible energy source. 2373,1998,2,3,Regional impacts of climate change in the Arctic and Antarctic,Regional assessments of impacts due to global climate change are a high priority in the international programs on global-change research. Ill the polar regions| climate models indicate an amplification of global greenhouse warming| but there are large differences between the results of various models| and uncertainties about the magnitude and timing of the expected changes. Also| the observed high-latitude climate trends over the past few decades are much more regional and patchy than predicted by the models. As a first step in assessing possible climate impacts| model results are compared with observations of changes in temperature| precipitation| sea-ice extent| the permafrost regime and other cryospheric parameters. While considerable uncertainties remain in the long-term prediction of change| there is some agreement between model results and observed trends by season on shorter time-scales. The warming observed over the land masses of the Arctic over the past few decades is matched by corresponding observed decreases in snow cover and glacier mass balances| by thawing of the permafrost: and to a lesser degree by reductions in sea-ice extent. In Antarctica| warming in the Antarctic Peninsula and Ross Sea regions is associated with large decreases in ice-shelf areas and reduced ice thicknesses on the lakes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Major future impacts due to global greenhouse warming are likely to include permafrost thawing on land and its consequences for ecosystems and humans: changes in the productivity of marine ecosystems in the Arctic and Southern Ocean; economic impacts on fisheries; petroleum and other human activities; and social impacts on northern indigenous populations. Some of these impacts will have positive ramifications| but most are likely to be detrimental. While uncertainties exist about the future| climate change in the polar regions during the past few decades can he shown to have had major impacts already which will become much more pronounced if present trends continue. 4478,1998,2,2,Regional issues raised by sea-level rise and their policy implications,Global sea levels are rising and this change is expected to accelerate in the coming century due to anthropogenic global warming. Any rise in sea level promotes land loss| increased flooding and salinisation. The impacts of and possible responses to sea-level rise vary at the local and regional scale due to variation in local and regional factors. Policy responses to the human-enhanced greenhouse effect need to address these different dimensions of climate change| including the regional scale. Based on global reviews and analyses of relative vulnerability| 4 contrasting regions are selected and examined in more detail using local and national assessments. These regions are (1) Europe| (2) West Africa| (3) South| South-East and East Asia and (4) the Pacific Small Islands. Some potential impacts of sea-level rise are found to have strong regional dimensions and regional cooperation to foster mitigation approaches (to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and| hence| the magnitude of climate change) and adaptive solutions to climate change impacts would be beneficial. For instance| in South| South-East and East Asia subsiding megacities and questions about long-term deltaic management are common and challenging issues. The debate on mitigation and stabilisation of greenhouse forcing also requires information on regional impacts of different emission pathways. These results will be provided by integrated models| calibrated against national assessments. 4674,1998,3,2,Research and development on new synthetic routes for basic chemicals by catalytic hydrogenation of CO2,This paper gives a review of recent research work in catalytic hydrogenation of CO2 to various kinds of valuable chemicals and fuels. Recently| CO2 hydrogenation has been positively studied in relation to a possible countermeasure against global warming caused by CO2 emission. Advances in the effective syntheses of methanol| dimethylether| ethanol| lower paraffin| lower olefins| gasoline fraction| formic acid| acetic acid and others are introduced. Additionally the progress of solar hydrogen production for this CO2 fixation is described and its importance is pointed out. 4550,1998,2,4,Response of tundra plant biomass| aboveground production| nitrogen| and CO(2) flux to experimental warming,We manipulated air temperature in tussock tundra near Toolik Lake| Alaska| and determined the consequences for total plant biomass; aboveground net primary production (ANPP)| ecosystem nitrogen (N) pools and N uptake| and ecosystem CO| flux. After 3.5 growing seasons| in situ plastic greenhouses that raised air temperature during the growing season had little effect on total biomass| N content| or growing-season N uptake of the major plant and soil pools. Similarly| vascular ANPP and net ecosystem CO| exchange did not change with warming| although net primary production of mosses decreased with warming. Such general lack of response supports the hypothesis that productivity in tundra is constrained by the indirect effects of cold temperatures (e.g.| low nutrient availability or short growing-season length) rather than by cold growing-season temperatures per se. Despite no effect on net ecosystem CO| flux| air warming stimulated early-season gross photosynthesis (GP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) throughout the growing season. This increased carbon turnover was probably associated with species-level responses to increased air temperature. Warming increased the aboveground biomass of the overstory shrub| dwarf birch (Betula nana)| and caused a significant net redistribution of N from the understory evergreen shrub| Vaccinium vitis-idaea| to B. nana| despite no effects on soil temperature| total plant N| or N availability. Thus| although air warming had no effect on total ecosystem N pools| it did mediate N distribution within the plant community. The early-season stimulation of GP is consistent with warming effects on leaf expansion of dominant shrubs (including B. nana) observed in other studies in tussock tundra. The stimulation of ER probably resulted from maintenance and growth respiration associated with higher aboveground B| nana biomass production and higher root N uptake and/or turnover in the greenhouses. The species responses to warming are consistent with changes in plant species assemblages associated with past warming and suggest that future warming may increase the abundance of B. nana in tussock tundra. We conclude that a 4 degrees C rise in air temperature alone will significantly stimulate carbon turnover in tundra but will have little effect on net carbon balance. 4557,1998,2,4,Responses of tropical trees to rainfall seasonality and its long-term changes,Seasonality and physiognomy of tropical forests are mainly determined by the amount of annual rainfall and its seasonal distribution. Climatic change scenarios predict that global warming will result in reduced annual rainfall and longer dry seasons for some| but not all| tropical rainforests. Tropical trees can reduce the impact of seasonal drought by adaptive mechanisms such as leaf shedding or stem succulence and by utilization of soil water reserves| which enable the maintenance of an evergreen canopy during periods of low rainfall. Correlations between climate and responses of tropical trees are therefore poor and the responses of tropical rainforests to climatic changes are hard to predict. Predicted climate change is unlikely to affect the physiognomy of rainforests with high annual rainfall and low seasonality. Seasonal evergreen forests which depend on the use of soil water reserves will be replaced by more drought-tolerant semideciduous forests| once rainfall becomes insufficient to replenish soil water reserves regularly. As the limits of drought tolerance of tropical rainforests are not known| rate and extent of future changes cannot be predicted. 2332,1998,2,3,Rethinking the role of adaptation in climate policy,Since the late 1980s| scientists and policy makers have devoted considerable attention and resources to the issue of global climate change. Domestic and international policies in response focus primarily on prevention of future climate impacts on society through the mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions| Academic and political attention is also largely focused on issues of mitigation| Adaptation refers to adjustments in individual| group| and institutional behavior in order to reduce society's vulnerabilities to climate| and thus reduce its impacts. In 1996| the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) wrote that adaptation offers a 'very powerful option' for responding to climate change and ought to be viewed as a 'complement' to mitigation efforts. Yet| the IPCC also wrote that 'little attention has been paid to any possible tradeoff between both types of options'. This paper discusses the limitations of mitigation responses and the need for adaptation to occupy a larger role in climate policy. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4682,1998,4,5,Role of time-delay concept in understanding mechanism of total solar irradiance variation and its effect on the climate of the Earth,A time-delay concept is described to play a vital role in a hypothesis of the mechanism of the solar total irradiance variation driven by time variation of the thermal structure of the solar convection zone| with time scales on the order of 10 to 10 000 years. The hypothesis is formulated on an empirical basis from an analysis of the observed data of the magnetic field of the Sun and of the global land-ail temperature anomalies of the Earth| with the assumption that the land area of the Earth can be a good recorder of the solar total irradiance variation in the past. As a result of the assumption within the context of the present hypothesis| it was found that the solar total irradiance increase and the global warming of the Earth from the early 20th century to the present time could be caused by release of heat stored in the solar convection zone in the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century.
2315,1998,2,4,Root growth dependence on soil temperature for Opuntia ficus-indica: influences of air temperature and a doubled CO2 concentration,1. Root elongation as a function of soil temperature was determined for the CAM succulent Opuntia ficus-indica| under three different day/night air temperatures (15 degrees C/5 degrees C| 25 degrees C/15 degrees C and 35 degrees C/25 degrees C) and an ambient (360 mu mol mol(-1)) vs a doubled CO2 concentration (720 mu mol mol(-1)) at 25 degrees C/15 degrees C| the optimum temperature for net CO2 uptake. 2. Root elongation occurred at soil temperatures from 12 degrees C (at 15 degrees C/5 degrees C) to 43 degrees C (at 35 degrees C/25 degrees C) with optimum temperatures of 27-30 degrees C| similar to other CAM succulents and consistent with the distribution of this shallow-rooted species in warm regions. Although a doubled CO2 concentration did not alter the optimum or limiting soil temperatures| increases of up to 5 degrees C in these temperatures accompanied the 20 degrees C increase in day/night air temperatures. 3. Root elongation rates at optimum soil temperatures ranged from 5.4 mm day(-1) (15 degrees C/5 degrees C)| through 6.6 mm day(-1) (25 degrees C/15 degrees C)| to 10.4 mm day(-1) (35 degrees C/25 degrees C) with a 25% increase under a doubled CO2 concentration. Highest root elongation rates at 35 degrees C/25 degrees C may reflect changing root vs shoot sink strengths in a species with a highly plastic root system. 4. At limiting soil temperatures| the length of the cell division zone was reduced by an average of 20% and cell length at the mid-point of-the elongation zone by 10%. Increased root elongation rates under a doubled CO2 concentration reflected increased cell elongation. 5. The temperature response for the roots of O. ficus-indica and stimulation of elongation by a doubled CO2 concentration indicate that root growth for this highly productive species should be enhanced by predicted global climate change. 4641,1998,2,2,Simulated future sea-level rise due to glacier melt based on regionally and seasonally resolved temperature changes,Climate change is expected over the next century as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols into the atmosphere| and global average sea level will consequently rise. Estimates' indicate that by 2100 sea level will be about 500 mm higher than today as a result of global warming| with thermal expansion of sea water accounting for over half of this rise. The melting of glaciers and ice sheets will contribute much of the remainder. We present an improved calculation of glacier melt| which uses the temperature patterns generated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model(2|3) as inputs to a seasonally and regionally differentiated glacier model(4|5). Under specified greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol forcings| our model predicts that glacier melt equivalent to 132 mm of sealevel rise will occur over the period 1990-2100| with a further 76 mm from melting of the Greenland ice sheet. These figures fall within the range of previous estimates made using simpler models(1); the advantage of our approach is that we take into account the effects of regional and seasonal temperature variations. Our inclusion of these effects increases the calculated glacier melt by 20%. 4626,1998,4,3,Simulated increase of hurricane intensities in a CO2-warmed climate,Hurricanes can inflict catastrophic property damage and loss of human life. Thus| it is important to determine how the character of these powerful storms could change in response to greenhouse gas-induced global warming. The impact of climate warming on hurricane intensities was investigated with a regional| high-resolution| hurricane prediction model. In a case study| 51 western Pacific storm cases under present-day climate conditions were compared with 51 storm cases under high-CO2 conditions| More idealized experiments were also performed. The large-scale initial conditions were derived from a global climate model. For a sea surface temperature warming of about 2.2 degrees C| the simulations yielded hurricanes that were more intense by 3 to 7 meters per second (5 to 12 percent) for wind speed and 7 to 20 millibars for central surface pressure. 4585,1998,2,2,Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming,A 1995 report(1) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a set of illustrative anthropogenic CO2 emission models leading to stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from 350 to 1|000 p.p.m. (refs 1-4). Ocean carbon-cycle models used in calculating these scenarios assume that oceanic circulation and biology remain unchanged through time. Here we examine the importance of this assumption by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model of global warming(5) for the period 1765 to 2065. We find a large potential modification to the ocean carbon sink in a vast region of the Southern Ocean where increased rainfall leads to surface freshening and increased stratification(6). The increased stratification reduces the downward flux of carbon and the loss of heat to the atmosphere| both of which decrease the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 relative to a constant-climate control scenario. Changes in the formation| transport and cycling of biological material may counteract the reduced uptake| but the response of the biological community to the climate change is difficult to predict on present understanding. Our simulation suggests that such physical and biological changes might already be occurring| and that they could substantially affect the ocean carbon sink over the next few decades. 4588,1998,3,3,Simulating the impact of management practices on nitrous oxide emissions,Effective evaluation of alternative management strategies to control global warming requires tools for simulating emissions of N(2)O from soils across a range of soil properties| weather| and management inputs. We hypothesized that with modification to the nitrification and denitrification submodels of the Nitrate Leaching and Economic Analysis Package (NLEAP) model| we could simulate daily N(2)O emissions as a function of soil moisture| temperature| N content| and other factors. Field parameterization was conducted on an Ulm clay loam soil (a fine| montmorillonitic| mesic Ustollic Haplargid) and validation experiments for N(2)O gas emissions were performed on an on farm swine effluent study site on a Valent sandy soil (a mixed| mesic Ustic Torripsamment). The unitless model parameters reflecting the maximum fraction of selected N transformations emitted as N(2)O for nitrification (alpha(N))| wet-period denitrification (alpha(w))| and dry-period denitrifiation (alpha(d)) were calibrated as 0.065| 0.050| and 0.520 separately and then used in the validation study. The trends and magnitudes of simulated N(2)O emissions were statistically consistent|vith the results obtained from the field experiments (r = 0.78). Experimental results showed that the decline of N(2)O emission rates from 70 to 2 g N ha(-1) d(-1) during the growing season was related to soil N content decline from 33 to 4 mg kg(-1). Simulated effects of field management on annual N(2)O emissions indicated that plowing decreased N(2)O relative to notillage corn (Zea mays L.)| irrigation increased N(2)O 14% relative to dry-land corn| and doubling fertilization N rates from 100 to 200 kg ha(-1) increased N(2)O emissions 60%. 4536,1998,4,4,Soil carbon changes from conversion of forest to pasture in Brazilian Amazonia,Soils in Brazilian Amazonia may contain up to 136 Ct of carbon to a depth of 8 m| of which 47 Gt are in the top meter. The current rapid conversion of Amazonian forest to cattle pasture makes disturbance of this carbon stock potentially important to the global carbon balance and net greenhouse gas emissions. Information on the response of soil carbon pools to conversion to cattle pasture is conflicting. Some of the varied results that have been reported can be explained by effects of soil compaction| clay content and seasonal changes. Most studies have compared roughly simultaneous samples taken at nearby sites with different use histories (i.e.| 'chronosequences'); a clear need exists for longitudinal studies in which soil carbon stocks and related parameters are monitored over time at fixed locations. Whether pasture soils are a net sink or a net source of carbon depends on their management| but an approximation of the fraction of pastures under 'typical' and 'ideal' management practices indicates that pasture soils in Brazilian Amazonia are a net carbon source| with the upper 8 m releasing an average of 12.0 t C/ha in land maintained as pasture in the equilibrium landscape that is established in the decades following deforestation. Considering the equilibrium landscape as a whole| which is dominated by pasture and secondary forest derived from pasture| the average net release of soil carbon is 8.5 t C/ha| or 11.7 x 10(6) t C for the 1.38 x 10(6) ha cleared in 1990. Only 3% of the calculated emission comes from below 1 m depth| but the ultimate contribution from deep layers may be substantially greater. The land area affected by soil C losses under pasture is not restricted to the portion of the region maintained under pasture in the equilibrium landscape| but also the portion under secondary forests derived from pasture. Pasture effects from deforestation in 1990 represent a net committed emission from soils of 9.2 x 106 t C| or 79% of the total release from soils from deforestation in that year. Soil emissions from Amazonian deforestation represent a quantity of carbon approximately 20% as large as Brazil's annual emission from fossil fuels. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4553,1998,2,4,Soil warming: Consequences for foliar litter decay in a spruce-fir forest in Maine| USA,Increased rates of litter decay due to projected global warming could substantially alter the balance hc tw een C assimilation and release in forest soils| with consequent feedbacks to climate change. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of soil warming on the decomposition of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg|) and red maple (Acer rubrum L.) foliar litter at Howland| ME| Experimentally increased Oa horizon soil temperatures (increase of 4-5 degrees C) were maintained during the snow-free season from 1993 through 1995 in replicated 15 by 15 m plots using heat-resistance cables. For red maple litter| significant treatment effects included greater loss of mass (27%) and C (33%)| and greater accumulation of Zn (54%) during the first 6 mo of decay in the heated plots than the control plots| After 30 mo of decay| significant treatment effects were no longer evident for red maple litter. Few treatment effects were observed for red spruce litter during the initial 18 mo of decay. However| after 30 mo of decay| significant treatment effects included greater loss of mass (19%)| C (19%). N (24%)| Ca (27%)| Mg (12%)| K (4%)| Zn (60%)| and cellulose (40%) in red spruce litter in the heated plots than the control plots. We conclude that a modest increase in Oa horizon soil temperature ( 4-5 degrees C) ran significantly increase litter decay rates and alter litter decay dynamics in this coniferous forest stand| and that these changes exhibit variations in their temporal development as a function of species and litter quality attributes. 4483,1998,2,2,Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the IPCC on global warming,Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of northern hemisphere land air temperatures| there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The 'solar hypothesis' (as we shall term this assumption) claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier article we have demonstrated that for data covering the period 1860-1980 the solar hypothesis does not rule out any significant contribution from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The present analysis goes a step further. We analyse the period 1579-1987 and find that the solar hypothesis-instead of contradicting-appears to support the assumption of a significant warming due to human activities. We have tentatively 'corrected' the historical northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies by removing the assumed effects of human activities. These are represented by northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies calculated as the contributions from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols by using an upwelling diffusion-energy balance model similar to the model of Wigley and Raper (1993) employed in the Second Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It turns out that the agreement of the filtered solar cycle lengths with the 'corrected' temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies| with the mean square deviation reduced by 36% for a climate sensitivity of 2.5 degrees C| the central value of the IPCC assessment| and by 43% for the best-fit value of 1.7 degrees C. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4529,1998,3,4,Solid sorption heat powered cycles for cooling and heat pumping applications,Heat powered solid sorption is a feasible alternative to electrical vapour compression. However| the emergence of that technology takes time. In this review| the possibilities and limits of this technology are analysed. The performances are shown to be very interesting and in progress| and right now applications are foreseen| The use of waste heat for solid sorption air-conditioning may be an attractive application| but| for a large dissemination| higher efficiencies as well as cost reduction are required. With respect to primary energy and global warming| sorption cooling and heat pumping is coherent| except for waste heat or solar applications| only if the cooling COP is larger than about 1 or 1.2 depending on operating conditions. Technical results are close to that point which provide a wider perspective. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4503,1998,3,3,Solid waste management in India: options and opportunities,In India| the collection| transportation and disposal of MSW are unscientific and chaotic. Uncontrolled dumping of wastes on outskirts of towns and cities has created overflowing landfills| which are not only impossible to reclaim because of the haphazard manner of dumping| but also have serious environmental implications in terms of ground water pollution and contribution to global warming. Burning of waste leads to air pollution in terms of increased TSP and PM10 emissions| which is equivalent to vehicular emissions at times. In the absence of waste segregation practices| recycling has remained to be an informal sector working on outdated technology| but nevertheless thriving owing to waste material availability and market demand of cheaper recycled products. Paper and plastic recycling have been especially growing due to continuously increasing consumption levels of both the commodities. Composting-aerobic and anaerobic| both the options are available to the country for scientific disposal of waste in future. However| country also needs something in terms of policy and guidelines to enable the municipal corporations to run the waste services efficiently. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4504,1998,5,4,Some aspects of the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) and of the possible causes for the biotic crisis around this boundary,The first appearance datum (FAD) of Hindeodus parvus is an excellent datum very close to the base of the Otoceras woodwardi Zone (priority base of the Triassic). For the first time| it allows an exact correlation of the PTB in all marine facies and faunal realms. The following features of the extinction and recovery patterns near the PTB are most important for the search for causes of the PTB biotic crisis: (1) most strongly affected were the (siliceous) plankton (radiolarians) and the warm-water benthos and nekton; (2) most of the cold-water faunas were not significantly affected; (3) the recovery of the warm-water benthos and siliceous plankton occurred only after an unusually long time (during the late Olenekian and Middle Triassic); (4) the productivity of the terrestrial plants dropped strongly and the recovery was mainly in the upper Olenekian and in the Middle Triassic; (5) several terrestrial extinction events occurred at different levels within the Upper Permian| considerable before the marine PTB; at or close to the FAD of Lystrosaurus no extinction event in the terrestrial faunas can be observed; (6) terrestrial faunal elements that survived the Dzhulfian-Dorashamian extinctions were able to survive some months of extreme climatic conditions by hibernation-like life stages (vertebrates)| or by dry- and freezing-resistant eggs (conchostracans); (7) about 50% of the genera that disappeared at the PTB re-appeared in the Olenekian-Middle Triassic interval (Lazarus taxa)| or in this time interval genera appeared that had undoubtedly evolved from genera that had disappeared at the PTB; and (8) the PTB is preceded by mass occurrences of marine (and continental?) fungi| and the fungal spike ends abruptly a little before the PTB. A scenario for the PTB biotic crisis is elaborated that takes into consideration: the real (not interpolated) diversity patterns of different marine and continental fossil groups| the exact correlation of bioevents in different faunal realms and facies| the strong biotic crisis in the Tethyan warm-water faunas in contrast to the much weaker biotic event in cold-water faunas| the severe Dzhulfian-Dorashamian climate in many parts of the world caused by the continent-ocean configuration and by Siberian Trap volcanism| the cooling of the Boreal area by the northward drift of Pangaea that interrupted the exchange of warm-water benthos between the Tethys and western North America during the Guadalupian| the extinction event at the Guadalupian-Lopingian boundary that restricted most of the affected warm-water faunas to the Tethys| the importance of lower Scythian anoxia that reached an unusually shallow level| and above all the effects of the contemporaneous huge volcanic events about 250 m.y. ago on the Siberian Platform and in the eastern Tethys that caused a 3-6-months-lasting volcanic winter with strong cooling in low latitudes| followed by a strong global warming. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4652,1998,4,2,Sources and sinks of methane in German agroecosystems in context of the global methane budget,Methane is an important greenhouse gas| which contributes about 20 % to global warming. The atmospheric CH(4) concentration is increasing rapidly| resulting from an imbalance between CH(4) production and consumption. On a global scale the most important CH(4) sources are wetlands| coal mining and natural gas exploration| enteric fermentation| rice paddies| and biomass burning. In German agriculture| animal husbandry is the sole| potent CH(4) source| which consists of methane from digestive processes and from generation in animal waste storages. For the year 1996 the total annual release from domesticated animals in Germany is estimated to 1.7 Tg CH(4)| of which 1.1 Tg originated from enteric fermentation and 0.6 Tg from animal wastes. Thus| German livestock contributed about 1.6 % to the global annual emission from enteric fermentation plus animal wastes. Arable soils and grasslands are important CH(4) sinks in agriculture. The contribution of German agricultural and forest soils to the globally estimated soil sink strength is about 0.3 %| but could also be as high as 1.1 %. For several reasons the CH(4) uptake potential is only partly exploited| as agricultural practices Like nitrogen fertilization and land use changes can have adverse impacts on the activity of CH(4) oxidizing bacteria in soil. In conclusion| more CH(4) flux measurements on German agricultural soils are needed to allow a more accurate estimate of their contribution to the global CH(4) budget. Additionally| further studies are required to improve the reliability of estimates for CH(4) emission from German livestock. 4636,1998,3,3,Status of worldwide coal mine methane emissions and use,Underground coal mines worldwide Liberate an estimated 29-41 x 10(9) m(3) of methane annually| of which less than 2.3 x 10(9) m(3) are used as fuel. The remaining methane is emitted to the atmosphere| representing the loss of a valuable energy resource. Methane is also a major greenhouse gas and is thus detrimental to the environment when vented to the atmosphere. Coal mine methane recovery and use represents a cost-effective means of significantly reducing methane emissions from coal mining| while increasing mine safety and improving mine economics. The world's ten largest coal producers are responsible for 90% of global methane emissions associated with the coal fuel cycle. China is the largest emitter of coal mine methane| followed by the Commonwealth of Independent States| or CIS (particularly Russia| Ukraine and Kazakhstan)| the United States| Poland| Germany| South Africa| the United Kingdom| Australia| India and the Czech Republic. Most of these countries use a portion of the methane that is liberated from their coal mines| but the utilization rate tends to be low and some countries use none at all. Coal mine methane is currently used for a variety of purposes. Methane is used for heating and cooking at many mine facilities and nearby residences. It is also used to fuel boilers| to generate electricity| directly heat air for mine ventilation systems and for coal drying. Several mines in the United States sell high-quality mine gas to natural gas distributors. There are several barriers to decreasing methane emissions by increasing coal mine methane use. Many of the same barriers are common to a number of the subject countries. Technical barriers include low-permeability coals| variable or low gas quality| variations in gas supply and demand and lack of infrastructure. Economic and institutional barriers include lack of information pertinent to development of the resource| lack of capital and low natural gas prices. A possible option for encouraging coal mine methane recovery and use would be international adoption of a tradeable permit system for methane emissions. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. 4593,1998,4,3,Study of global warming by GFDL climate models,This paper is based on the commemorative lecture which was delivered at the award ceremony of the Volvo Environmental Prize. The author describes his early attempt to study the greenhouse effect using a one-dimensional model of radiative| convective equilibrium of the atmosphere. This is followed by the description of a recent study of global warming which employs a general circulation model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface system developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). In particular| the study attempts to elucidate the role of oceanic and land surface processes in shaping the response of surface air temperature to a gradual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). 4511,1998,5,4,Sun| climate| hunger| and mass migration,Paleoclimatic studies indicate four epochs of global cooling during the last 4 000 years| i.e| during the few centuries before and after 2000 BC| 800 BC| 400 AD| and 1 600 AD; the quasiperiodicity corresponds to cyclic variation of solar activity. Global temperature changes influenced regional precipitation patterns: Northern Europe was wetter while the middle- and low-latitude lands were more aria during colder epochs. Both sets of cold climatical conditions were unfavorable for agricultural production. Historical records show that large demographic movements in history took place because of crop failures and mass starvation| rather than escaping from war zones. The "wandering" of the Germanic tribes during the first two or three centuries of the Christian Era is one example. Whereas the accelerated release of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels is ultimately to cause global warming| historical evidence indicates| however| that global warming has been on the whole a blessing to mankind. Global cooling| on the other hand| has curtailed agricultural production and has led to famines and mass migrations of people. Perhaps the most important task at the present is not so much computer-modelling of greenhouse effect on global climate| but water-management and agricultural researches to insure food-supply for an everincreasing world population. 4547,1998,3,4,Sustainable animal production systems in India: Issues and approaches,Sustainable animal production as applicable to small farm production system in Indian context has been discussed. Livestock farming systems practised are mainly traditional and guided by socio-economic considerations| available feed resources and market demand. The present status of livestock production and the contribution of livestock to Indian economy through milk| meat| egg| fibre and draught animal power (DAP) have been examined along with future perspectives. The major issues as related to animal production are (i) environmental degradation| (ii) low external input| (iii) impact of technologies on livestock improvement and resource base| and (iv) large number of ruminants and methane emission. Role and impact of technologies as related to animal health| breeding and reproduction| frozen semen| crossbreeding| feeds and feeding and institutional structure in improving livestock productivity and production have been examined. Effects of high livestock density| over grazing and desertification on natural resources and environment and that of large number of ruminants on global warming have been deliberated. Number of livestock specially cattle and buffalo| that can be sustained to meet the higher food needs| DAP| clean environment and maintenance of natural resources have been discussed. A sustainable model for higher productivity of livestock has been proposed. 4583,1998,3,3,Technological breakthrough for the environmental issues in Japan,We have reached the stage of having to implement a global warming prevention action plan for the 21st century. In this article we introduce the global energy scenario announced in the second report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1995 enhanced by the developments after COP3 in Kyoto 1997| and specify technical development objectives for energy conservation| new energies and environment protection. Futhermore| a general idea of the 'Life Cycle Energy Revenue and Expenditure Balance' is introduced as a sustainable condition for evaluating future energy related technology development. This is shown for various electricity generation cycles. From the viewpoint of a social system giving priority to the environment the construction of an energy cascading and material circulation society becomes increasingly important. Sustainable economic activities are impossible without the 'Reverse Factory'| or complete recycling. Decentralization of the electric power generation| and electric power supply network will play an important role in solving environment and energy related problems. The future of individual transportation is outlined. Finally| the importance of technology transfer for internal globalization and international contribution for Japan| emphasizing the need for a technology network without national boundaries is pointed out. 2325,1998,2,4,Temporal perspectives in environmental surveillance: examples from the rocky intertidal zone,Data from 15 years' monitoring of rocky intertidal populations on the southeast coast of South Africa provide a long-term perspective of environmental variability| against which the generality of conclusions and predictions from short-term studies may be evaluated. Time series of population abundance of barnacles| rock oysters and limpets revealed a variety of temporal cycles| trends and periods of instability. Analyses of three-year segments of these time series| equivalent to the length of field observations in a typical doctoral study| revealed only high-frequency seasonal cycles in abundance. Only 30% of the segments exhibited the 'correct' long-term trends| although the slopes were different| whereas coefficients of variability were generally underestimated| by as much as fourfold. Similarly estimates of mean abundance were out by between two and four times. Multidimensional scaling ordinations of the entire species assemblage (approximately 12 species) revealed that the community occupies several distinct states| as defined by the relative abundance of component species. These states may persist for between 18 months and 5 years and in any three-year segment the community may change from one state to another further confounding analyses from short time series. Although short-term experimental studies are useful| for example in elucidating species interactions| this analysis indicates that short-term studies of population abundance shed little light on long-term dynamics and cannot be used as reliable predictors of population variability. It is argued that an understanding of the dynamics of natural populations requires data at much larger temporal scales than those from most current studies. This necessitates long-term programmes which transcend the three- to five-year horizon. Given the indicators of global climate change| the sooner more such programmes are initiated| the better. 2311,1998,4,4,Temporal variability of dimethylsulfide and dimethylsulfoniopropionate in the Sargasso Sea,Vertical profiles of dimethylsulfide (DMS) and beta-dimethylsulfoniopropionate| particulate (pDMSP) and dissolved (dDMSP)| were measured biweekly in the upper 140 m of the Sargasso Sea (32 degrees 10'N| 64 degrees 30'W) during 1992 and 1993. DMS and pDMSP showed strong| but different| seasonal patterns; no distinct intra-annual pattern was observed for dDMSP. During winter| concentrations of DMS were generally less than 1 nmol l(-1) at all depths| dDMSP was less than 3 nmol l(-1) and pDMSP was less than 8 nmol l(-1). In spring| concentrations of both dDMSP and pDMSP rose| on a few occasions up to 20 nmol l(-1) in the dissolved pool and up to 27 nmol l(-1) in the particulate pool. These increases| due to blooms of DMSP-containing phytoplankton| resulted in only minor increases in DMS concentrations (up to 4 nmol l(-1)). Throughout the summer| the concentrations of DMS continued to increase| reaching a maximum in August of 12 nmol l(-1) (at 30 m depth). There was no concomitant summer increase in dDMSP or pDMSP| The differences among the seasonal patterns of DMS| dDMSP| and pDMSP suggest that the physical and biological processes involved in the cycling of DMS change with the seasons. There is a correlation between the concentration of DMS and temperature in this data set| as required by some of the climate feedback models that have been suggested for DMS. A full understanding of the underlying processes controlling DMS is required to determine if the temperature-DMS pattern is of significance in the context of global climate change. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4541,1998,3,3,The climate change implications of manufacturing refrigerants - A calculation of 'production' energy contents of some common refrigerants,Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) analysis has been shown to be a useful aid to quantifying the climate change effect of potential emissions from the operation of systems that involve the use of greenhouse gases and consume energy| so generating CO2 emissions. It enables these systems to be optimized for minimum global warming impact. In previous studies(1|2|3)| the energies required to manufacture the greenhouse gases themselves were not included; by analogy with other chemical manufacturing processes they were assumed to be small in the context of climate change. In the work described here| climate change impacts from the energy used to produce a number of common refrigerant fluids are evaluated. These impacts are compared with the potential impact on global warming from the other components of TEWI: use and disposal of the refrigerants| including direct release into the environment. It is shown that the implications for climate change of the production of traditional refrigerants like ammonia| hydrocarbons or CFC-12 and new refrigerating fluids| such as HFC-134a| are truly insignificant in comparison with other stages of the life cycle of a refrigerator and have no role in TEWI. 2361,1998,5,4,The date of last large eruption of Changbaishan-Tianchi volcano and its significance,The systematical C-14 age of a large gagatite| which has been found in the pumiceous airfall deposits of the last large eruption of Changbaishan-Tianchi volcano| is dared from its centre to its edge. By fitting the C-14 age with the high precise calibrated curve of tree ring| it is concluded that the date of the last large eruption is (1215 +/- 15) AD. In addition| the climatic effects of that large eruption are also discussed| pointing out that the last large eruption probably corresponds to the sulfuric acid peak at (1227 +/- 2) AD in GISP2 Greenland ice core. 4561,1998,2,4,The effect of deforestation on ground surface temperatures,Recorded ground surface temperatures (GSTs) over a period of a year at closely spaced sites in a temperate area (almost no snow or ground freezing) show that forested sites and one with a high water table have colder average temperatures relative to other terrains. At sites in southern British Columbia where trees have been logged and in the southern Yukon where they were burned down by a forest fire| the ground surface temperature increased at the time of deforestation. Borehole temperatures are used to show this since no GSTs were recorded. At these sites there has been no subsequent reforestation| and the ground surface temperature has remained nearly constant since deforestation. The times since deforestation range from 5 to 52 years| and the average increase in ground surface temperature is 1.8 K on northern Vancouver island and 1.2 K in the southern Yukon. The heat required for transpiration in a forest is about 10% of the net radiative heat flux at the ground surface. If this amount of heat is surplus due to deforestation and if the earth is considered to radiate heat like a black body| then the expected increase in the GST is of the order of 1 K. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4488,1998,2,4,The effects of elevated winter temperature and sub-lethal pollutants (low pH| elevated ammonia) on protein turnover in the gill and liver of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss),Appetite| growth| and protein turnover (synthesis| growth and degradation) of liver and gills were measured in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fed to satiation| and exposed for 90 days to elevated winter temperatures (+2 degrees C above ambient) and either low pH (5.2) in softwater or 70 mu M total ammonia (T-Amm) in hardwater. All fish increased in weight during the experiments| but those exposed to +2 degrees C grew significantly more than those at ambient temperature due to a stimulation of appetite. During the relatively constant temperature of the first 75 days| +2 degrees C caused a significant increase in the rates of protein synthesis and degradation in the liver of hardwater-acclimated fish| as a result of an increase in RNA translational efficiency (K-RNA) The elevated temperature also induced an increase in gill protein synthesis in softwater-acclimated fish but in this case the underlying mechanism was an increase in C-s| the capacity for protein synthesis (RNA:protein) rather than in K-RNA. The addition of 70 mu M T-Amm had no effect on protein turnover in either liver or gills of hardwater-acclimated fish. Low pH inhibited protein growth in the liver of softwater-acclimated fish at day 90 under both temperature regimes. This inhibition was effected via a decrease in protein synthesis at control temperature but via an increase in protein degradation when the fish were exposed to both low pH and +2 degrees C. From these results we conclude that a simulated global warming scenario has potentially beneficial rather than detrimental effects on protein turnover and growth of freshwater fish during winter. 2352,1998,4,4,The effects of global temperature change on rice leaf blast epidemics: a simulation study in three agroecological zones,A combined simulation model (CERES-Rice coupled with BLASTSIM) was used to study the effects of global temperature change on rice leaf blast epidemics in several agroecological zones in Asia. At least five years of historical daily weather data were collected from each of 53 locations in five Asian countries (Japan| Korea| China| Thailand and Philippines). Two weather generators| WGEN and WMAK| from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)| were utilized to produce estimated daily weather data for each location. Thirty years of daily weather data produced by one of the generators for each location were used as input to the combined model to simulate blast epidemics for each temperature change. Maximum blast severity and the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) caused by leaf blast resulted from 30-yr simulations were statistically analyzed for each temperature change and for each location. Simulations suggest that temperature changes had significant effects on disease development at most locations. However| the effect varied in different agroecological zones. In the cool subtropics such as Japan and northern China| elevation of temperature above normal temperature resulted in more severe blast epidemics. In warm/cool humid subtropics| elevation of temperature caused significantly less blast epidemics. However| lower temperature caused insignificant difference in disease epidemics compared with that in normal temperature. Conditions in the humid tropics were opposite to those in cool areas| where daily temperature changes by -1 degrees C and -3 degrees C resulted in significantly more severe blast epidemics| and temperature changes by +1 degrees C and +3 degrees C caused less severe blast. Scenarios showing blast intensity as affected by temperature change in different agroecological zones were generated with a geographic information system (GIS). (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. 4480,1998,2,2,The greenhouse gas-induced climate change over the Indian subcontinent as projected by general circulation model experiments,In order to assess the climatic impacts of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere on the Indian subcontinent with a fair degree of confidence| we recently undertook an intercomparison study of a range of general circulation modelling experiments for which the data were available to us. This study (Lal et al.| 1998) reported our findings on the performance of each of the 17 global climate model experiments in simulating the present-day regional climatology over the Indian subcontinent. The analysis suggested that a few global climate models performed exceptionally well in their control simulation to represent the observed present-day climatological patterns over the region of interest. In this paper| we focus on the development of plausible climate change scenario for the Indian subcontinent based on selected model simulations with enhanced greenhouse gas forcings. Our analysis suggests that| for a 1 degrees C rise in mean annual global temperature| the seasonal surface air temperature increase over the Indian subcontinent is likely to range from 0.7 degrees C to 1.1 degrees C during winter and 0.6 degrees C to 1.0 degrees C during summer. The increase in summer precipitation associated with the projected scaled rise in surface temperature could be between 1.2% to 4.5 %. The model results do not suggest any significant change in the winter precipitation over the region. Taking into account the suggested range of climate sensitivity as well as the range of future greenhouse gas-induced global warming in selected general circulation model experiments| a plausible climate change scenario for the Indian subcontinent is developed for the years 2030 and 2070. A rise in mean winter surface air temperature of between 0.4 degrees C to 1.7 degrees C by the year 2030 and between 0.7 degrees C to 3.4 degrees C by the year 2070 is projected. During the summer season| the temperature rise is expected to range between 0.3 degrees C to 1.4 degrees C by the year 2030 and 0.6 degrees C to 3.1 degrees C by the year 2070. The study suggests intense spells of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent due to enhanced convective activity in a warmer atmosphere. 4614,1998,2,3,The impact of current and possibly future sea surface temperature anomalies on the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes,A brief summary of the current capabilities of a high resolution global numerical prediction model towards resolving the life cycles of hurricanes is first presented. Next| we illustrate the results of season long integrations for the years 1987 and 1988 using the observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the global oceans. The model being used here is the FSU atmospheric global spectral model at the horizontal resolution of T42 and with 16 vertical layers. The main emphasis of this study is on hurricane tracks for these and for global warming experiments. The global warming scenarios were modeled using doubled CO2 and enhanced SST anomalies. The model being atmospheric does not simulate the ocean| and SST anomalies need to be prescribed. It is assumed in these experiments that the SST anomalies of the doubled CO2 world appear similar to those of the current period but that they are slightly warmer over the global tropics. That is determined using a simple proportionality relationship requiring an enhancement of the global mean SST anomaly over the tropics. Such an enhancement of the SST anomaly of an El Nino year 1987 amplifies the SST anomaly for the El Nino of the double CO2 atmosphere somewhat. The La Nina SST anomalies were similarly enhanced for the double CO2 atmosphere during 1988. These hurricane season experiments cover the period June through October for the respective years. It was necessary to define the thresholds for a model simulated hurricane; given such a definition we have compared first the tracks and frequency of storms based on the present day CO2 simulations with the observed storms for 1987 and 1988. Those comparisons were noted to be very close to the observed numbers of the storms. The doubled CO2 storms show a significant enhancement of the frequency of storms for the La Nina periods| however there was no noticeable change for the El Nino experiments. We have also run an experiment using the SST anomalies from a triple CO2 climate run made at the Max Planck Institut at Hamburg| This experiment simulated some 7 hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean. The intensity of hurricanes| inferred from maximum winds at 850 mb| show that on the average the storms are slightly more intense for the double CO2 experiments compared to the storms simulated from current CO2 conditions. The triple CO2 storms were slightly stronger in this entire series of experiments. 2377,1998,2,4,The impact of elevated CO2 on plant-herbivore interactions: experimental evidence of moderating effects at the community level,Surprisingly little research has been published on the responses to elevated [CO2] at the community level| where herbivores can select their preferred food. We investigated the combined effects of atmospheric [CO2] and herbivory on synthesised plant communities growing on soils of different fertility. Factorial combinations of two [CO2] (350 or 700 mu l l(-1))| two fertility (fertilised or non-fertilised)| and two herbivory (herbivores present or absent) treatments were applied to a standard mixture of seven fast- and eight slow-growing plants in outdoor microcosms. The herbivores used were the grain aphid (Sitobion avenae) and the garden snail (Helix aspersa). We measured plant biomass| foliar nitrogen and soluble tannin concentration| aphid fecundity| and snail growth| fecundity| and feeding preferences over one growing season. Elevated [CO2] did not have a significant impact on(1)the combined biomass of fast-growing or slow-growing plants| (2) herbivore feeding preferences| or (3) herbivore fitness. There was| however| a significant biomass increase of Carex flacca (which represented in all cases less than 5% of total live biomass)| and some chemical changes in unpalatable plants under elevated [CO2]. The herbivory treatment significantly increased the biomass of slow-growing plants over fast-growing plants| whereas fertilisation significantly increased the abundance of fast-growing plants over slow-growing plants. Predictions on the effects of elevated [CO2] based on published single-species experiments were not supported by the results of this microcosm study. 4675,1998,2,4,The influence of drought and natural re-wetting on nitrogen dynamics in a coniferous ecosystem in Ireland,A field drought-rewetting treatment was artificially imposed in a Picea abies (L.) Karst. stand in each of four consecutive years (1992-1995) by means of a roof installed beneath the canopy. It was removed each year to allow natural rainfall rewet the soil in order to test Ulrich's (1980) 'Acidification pulse' hypothesis| viz. that rewetting a soil subsequent to drought results in net nitrification and acidification. NH4+ concentrations in the Drought plot humus water increased substantially following drought and rewetting in 1992 (3754 mu mol(c) L-1| i.e. 36% total cations)| to a lesser degree in 1994 and 1995| and were accompanied by elevated pH values tin the range pH 5.7 to 6.3)| whereas NH4+ levels and pH values (between pH 3.7 and 3.8) were unaffected during these times in the Control plot humus water. High NO3- concentrations were observed in the Drought humus water immediately after drought and rewetting in 1992| whereas in 1994 and 1995 there was a time-lag during which nitrate concentrations increased steadily. In contrast| NH4+ and NO3- concentrations were consistently low at all depths in the mineral soil waters of both the Drought and Control plots throughout the years of the experiment. Likewise| pH values were unaffected in the mineral soil water at these times| suggesting that microbiological activity and nitrification was largely confined to the O horizon at this site. This research then| indicates that Ulrich's hypothesis was not applicable in the Ballyhooly site. Ammonification dominated over nitrification after drought and rewetting under current Irish climatic conditions. However| under conditions of increased air temperatures| as in the 'global warming' scenario| the potential for enhanced nitrification and consequent acidification and leaching of NO3- produced after drought and rewetting may exist at Ballyhooly. 2314,1998,2,4,The potential of SPOT-Vegetation data for fire scar detection in boreal forests,Boreal forests cover 10% of the land surface and experience wide ranges of temperature and precipitation. In many parts of the boreal zone| fire drives vegetation succession| landscape dynamics and carbon cycling. Global climate change may affect the frequency and size of wildfires and alter the rate of carbon release into the atmosphere. Monitoring changes in fire frequency are therefore vital for forest management and predicting climate change impacts. The continuity of remotely sensed data| combined with the extent and remoteness of the boreal ecosystem make Earth observation an important tool for fire monitoring. This Letter examines the applicability of data from SPOT-Vegetation for regional fire monitoring in the context of other available Earth observation instruments. We show that use of the middle-infrared waveband gives a more reliable indication of fire scars than vegetation index approaches currently employed. 4599,1998,2,4,The role of ocean in the response of tropical climatology to global warming: The west-east SST contrast,A theory of tropical climatology is used to study the role of ocean in the response of tropical climatology to global warming. Special emphasis is given to the response of the west-east SST contrast along the equator. The transient response of tropical sea surface temperature to a global warming is shown to have two distinctive stages: a fast surface adjustment stage of years and a slow thermocline adjustment stage of decades. Under a global warming heat flux that does not vary much in space| the initial response is always an enhanced west-east SST contrast. The final equilibrium response| however| depends on the effective latitudinal differential heating. The west-east SST contrast increases for an enhanced latitudinal differential heating| and vise versa. 4551,1998,2,4,The significance of air pollution in sugar maple decline,Sugar maple decline has been a prominent issue since the late 1970s| when large areas of Quebec and Ontario were affected by this phenomenon. Links have been established between decline and insect damage| airborne heavy metals and acidic pollutants| and drought. Research has also indicated that global warming and resulting climactic changes may also cause decline. The phenomenon can be partially alleviated by proper management of sugar bushes. Although sugar maple decline has been on the wane over recent years| it may pose a serious problem in the future. 2371,1998,3,2,The strategies of abating emission of Co-2 and nuclear energy development in China,In China| annual coal consumption accounts for the first place all over the world in order to meet the high speed development of economy and improvement of the people's living quality. CO(2)emission from coal fire is a main contributor to the climate change. We must abate CO(2)emission besides developing economy for mitigating the global climate change. In the feasible countermeasure to reduce CO2 emission| which includes improving energy efficiency and developing alternative energy| developing nuclear energy is an important one. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 4520,1998,3,3,The urgent need to internalize CO2 emission costs,Despite growing manifestations of global warming and the commitment of most nations to move towards reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions| a simple device that can be effective in reducing GHG emissions continues to be overlooked or even rejected. This is to acknowledge the fact that carbon emissions inflict global costs that are not borne by emitters. This paper advocates that all activities emitting or saving cat-ban emissions should internalize the carbon cost inflicted or avoided by new projects involving CO2. Considering the current wide range of carbon cost estimates| the paper recommends that a two-stage approach be adopted. Firstly| incorporate carbon costs in project analysis only theoretically in order to differentiate objectively among alternative designs involving carbon emissions of varying degrees. Different estimates of the costs of a ton of carbon would be used in order to test the sensitivity of rates of return to alternative carbon castings. While this process would have the effect of screening the allocation of scarce investment funds among projects that affect global warming in different degrees| it should be viewed as only a first step. Secondly| we advocate a rigorous process of passing through estimated carbon costs to the ultimate users of the services of carbon-emitting projects and processes. It is this ultimate process that will secure the urgently needed transition from the current dependence on fossil fuels to more benign sources of energy that would reduce climate-change risks. Since the time available is limited| the paper points out the urgency of these proposals that are crucial for sustainability. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4491,1998,2,3,The utilization of bryophytes in bioclimatic modeling: Predicted northward migration of peatlands in the Mackenzie River Basin| Canada| as a result of global warming,A bioclimatic model based on bryophyte species distribution and abundance relative to climate was coupled with climatic and geographical data obtained from Leemans and Cramer (1991) and the Canadian Climate Center (CCC) General Circulation model (GGM) at 1XCO(2) in order to reconstruct the present geographical distribution of seven peatland types in the Mackenzie River Basin. The geographical distribution of 195 peatlands previously identified by type were used to test the validity of the reconstructions. The rest revealed that the reconstruction using data from Leemans and Cramer was more accurate than the reconstruction using the CCC GCM data. For this reason| the CCC 1XCO(2) data was subtracted from the CCC 2XCO(2) climatic data to produce an anomalies data set which was then added to the Leemans and Granter data to project the distribution of the seven types of peatlands at 2XCO(2). Results of this prediction were then compared to predictions using 2XCO(2) data obtained from the Geophysics Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. The position. of the southern limits of peatland distribution was compared to past distributions resulting from a warming period in the early to mid Holocene. Results of the predictions for the two climate change scenarios indicated a northward migration of the southern boundary of peatland ecosystems of approximately 780 km in the central portion of the Mackenzie River Basin. The model also predicted that Mid-Boreal peatlands would be located along a diagonal running from southeast to northwest from 60 degrees longitude to an area just south of the Mackenzie Delta far both scenarios. High-Boreal and Subarctic peatlands were located to the north of the diagonal| while Low-Boreal peatlands were located to the south. However| the CCC anomalies + Leemans and Cramer predictions did not clearly define the Low-Boreal since Low-Boreal indicators were only located in the Cordilleran Ecological Province. Ecological diversity is anticipated to be maintained in the peatlands because all types were predicted to be found in the Basin at 2XCO(2) but at different locations. Comparisons between the predicted position of the southern limits of peatland distribution and that during the early to mid Holocene indicate that the model's predictions were reasonable. 4554,1998,3,4,Theoretical evaluation of carbon dioxide refrigeration cycle,Concerns of ozone depletion and global warming call for investigation of natural refrigerants. in this study the performance potential of the carbon dioxide refrigeration cycle is investigated theoretically. For this purpose| two cycle simulation models were developed. One is an Evans-Perkins cycle model for R-22| and the other is a transcritical cycle model for CO2. By using these models| the CO2 refrigeration cycle and heat exchangers for the CO2 refrigeration cycle were optimized. The water chilling and lap water heating performances of CO2 were compared to those of R-22. The thermophysical properties of CO2 and the proper heat exchanger design appropriate to CO2 offer the opportunity of reducing heat exchanger size and mass for tap water heating applications.
4607,1998,2,2,Thermal limits and ocean migrations of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka): long-term consequences of global warming,Ocean surveys show that extremely sharp thermal boundaries have limited the distribution of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas over the past 40 years. These limits are expressed as a step function| with the temperature defining the position of the thermal limit varying between months in an annual cycle. The sharpness of the edge| the different temperatures that define the position of the edge in different months of the year| and the subtle variations in temperature with area or decade for a given month probably all occur because temperature-dependent metabolic rates exceed energy intake from feeding over large regions of otherwise acceptable habitat in the North Pacific. At current rates of greenhouse gas emissions| predicted temperature increases under a doubled CO2 climate are large enough to shift the position of the thermal limits into the Bering Sea by the middle of the next century. Such an increase would potentially exclude sockeye salmon from the entire Pacific Ocean and severely restrict the overall area of the marine environment that would support growth. 4477,1998,2,3,Thermodynamic model of global warming,A thermodynamic model of global warming (greenhouse effect) has been developed to calculate the rise in global temperature and sea level due to increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases relative to the pre-industrial era (approximate to 1800 AD). The growth rate of various greenhouse gases in future decades has been taken as per IPCC-1996 technical data. Accordingly| the mean global temperature is projected to increase by about 1.9 K during 1800-2100 AD out of which 1.3 K will be in the next 100 years (i.e. twenty first century)| Also| the mean sea level is projected to rise by about 86 cm during 1800 to 2100 AD out of which 60 cm will be in the next 100 years. It is the thermal expansion of oceans which accounts for about 95% of the rise in sea level and the rest comes from the melting of ice in greenland| glaciers and mountain caps. 4594,1998,4,3,Trace-gas greenhouse effect and global warming - Underlying principles and outstanding issues - Volvo Environmental Prize Lecture - 1997,This paper describes the developments that transformed the global warming problem from that arising solely from CO2 increase to the trace-gas greenhouse effect problem in which several non-CO2 gases| CFCs| CH4| N2O| O-3 and others contribute as much as CO2. Observed trace-gas increases| including CO2 increase| since the mid-19th century have enhanced the atmospheric greenhouse effect| G(a)| (approximate to 130 +/- 5 W m(-2)) by about 2%. Without other competing factors| this heating should have committed the planet to a warming of about 1 to 1.5 K. The added radiative energy is maximum in the low latitudes and about a factor of two smaller in the polar regions. The largest effect of the warming is increased back radiation at the surface by as much as 6 to 8 W m(-2) per degree warming. Not all of this increased energy is balanced by surface emission; evaporation (and hence precipitation) increases to restore surface energy balance| by as much as 2 to 4% per degree warming. The increase in evaporation along with the increase in saturation vapor pressure of the warmer troposphere| contributes through the atmospheric dynamics to an increase in water vapor. This water vapor feedback enhances G(a) by another 1% per degree warming. Our ability to predict regional and transient effects| depends critically on resolving a number of outstanding issues| including: i) Aerosol and stratospheric ozone effects; ii) Response of the tropical convective-cirrus clouds| the extra-tropical storm-track systems and persistent coastal stratus to both global warming and to regional emissions of aerosols; iii) The causes of excess solar absorption in clouds; and iv) Upper troposphere water vapor feedback effects. 2344,1998,3,4,Trade-offs in refrigerant selections: past| present| and future,Recent attention to depletion of stratospheric ozone| by chemicals containing bromine and chlorine| resulted in an international accord to halt their production. The most widely used refrigerants are among them. Chemical and equipment manufacturers mounted aggressive research and development programs to introduce alternative and transition refrigerants| associated lubricants and desiccants| and redesigned equipment. The already difficult criteria became even more complex| with subsequent linkage of chemical emissions from human activities to global climate change. The very successful response to protect the ozone layer has led some regulators and users to assume that ideal substitutes will be found. Such chemicals should be free of all environmental and safety concerns| be chemically and thermally stable| and perform efficiently. The analyses presented in this paper demonstrate that the outlook for discovery or synthesis of ideal refrigerants is extremely unlikely. Trade-offs among desired objectives| therefore| are necessary to achieve balanced solutions. The paper also shows that fragmented regulation of the chemicals involved. to address individual issues| jeopardizes the prospect of solving subsequently addressed problems. The paper reviews the history of refrigerants| their roles in ozone depletion and global climate change| and necessary trade-offs in refrigerant selections. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 4560,1998,4,3,Transient CO2 experiment using the ARPEGE/OPAICE non flux corrected coupled model,A transient CO2 experiment using the ARPEGE/ OPAICE coupled general circulation model with no flux correction has been performed at CERFACS. Despite a warm initial climate drift| the main features of the observed climate are reasonably captured in the control simulation. In particular| the simulated oceanic circulation is satisfactory. The transient CO2 simulation shows a global warming of 1.6 degrees C in surface air temperature at the time of CO2 doubling. This value and the main geographical patterns of climate change are in agreement with previous studies using either flux corrected or non flux corrected models. The absence of flux correction does not prevent the too strong atmospheric water fluxes to produce an unrealistic freshening of the upper layer of the Northern North Atlantic which leads to a reduction of the thermohaline circulation in the control simulation. As a consequence| the weakening of the thermohaline circulation in response to the anthropogenic radiative forcing is less than expected. 2343,1998,4,4,Tree-limits and montane forests in the Swedish Scandes: Sensitive biomonitors of climate change and variability,The elevational tree-limit constitutes an ideal and sensitive proxy indicator of climate change and variability| i.e. an essential part of monitoring systems focusing on global climate change. That contention is purported by multi-scale records and reconstructions of changes in altitudinal tree-limits and northern boreal forests. Climatically forced trends in their position| structure and composition have occurred at all temporal scales throughout the Holocene. A progressive elevational descent of Pinus sylvestris tree-limit since the earliest Holocene| concurs with the deterministic theory of millennial climate forcing by changes in the Earth's orbital parameters. The successively less seasonal climate with cooler| more humid summers and winters with increasing snow cover has preconditioned the emergence of a subalpine birch forest belt during the past ca. 7000 yrs BP as well as the growing gee-ecological prominence of Picea abies. Superimposed on this longterm trend| climatic anomalies of shorter duration have been inferred from the tree-limit chronology. Some exceptionally warm and stable centuries| with high tree-limits and dense montane forests occurred during the Medieval period. Thereafter| the Little Ice Age prevailed until the late 19th century. Northern and high-elevation ecosystems were profoundly stressed| disturbed and destabilized by cold| windy and highly variable climate conditions. An episode of warmer climate during the first half of the present century imposed some recovery of structures decayed by the Little Ice Age. However| tree-limits and high-elevation forests were far from restored to their medieval levels. During the past 4-5 decades| a more martime and slightly cooler climate has been instrumentally recorded. High-elevation arboreal vegetation has responded retrogressively by defoliation| retarded growth| ceasing regeneration and locally some tree-limit retraction. Neoglacial processes have been resumed| e.g. dieback of subalpine/alpine dwarf shrub heaths| followed by deflation of humus and surface mineral soils. These processes are readily monitored in a unique regional network| with baseline data since the early 20th century. 2365,1998,4,4,Tropical cyclones and global climate change: A post-IPCC assessment,The very limited instrumental record makes extensive analyses of the natural variability of global tropical cyclone activities difficult in most of the tropical cyclone basins. However| in the two regions where reasonably reliable records exist (the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific)| substantial multidecadal variability (particularly for intense Atlantic hurricanes) is found| but there is no clear evidence of long-term trends. Efforts have been initiated to use geological and geomorphological records and analysis of oxygen isotope ratios in rainfall recorded in cave stalactites to establish a paleoclimate of tropical cyclones| but these have not yet produced definitive results. Recent thermodynamical estimation of the maximum potential intensities (MPI) of tropical cyclones shows good agreement with observations. Although there are some uncertainties in these MPI approaches| such as their sensitivity to variations in parameters and failure to include some potentially important interactions such as ocean spray feedbacks| the response of upper-oceanic thermal structure| and eye and eyewall dynamics| they do appear to be an objective tool with which to predict present and future maxima of tropical cyclone intensity. Recent studies indicate the MPI of cyclones will remain the same or undergo a modest increase of up to 10%-20%. These predicted changes are small compared with the observed natural variations and fall within the uncertainty range in current studies. Furthermore| the known omissions (ocean spray| momentum restriction| and possibly also surface to 300-hPa lapse rate changes) could all operate to mitigate the predicted intensification. A strong caveat must be placed on analysis of results from current GCM simulations of the "tropical-cyclone-like" vortices. Their realism| and hence prediction skill (and also that of "embedded" mesoscale models)| is greatly limited by the coarse resolution of current GCMs and the failure to capture environmental factors that govern cyclone intensity. Little| therefore| can be said about the potential changes of the distribution of intensities as opposed to maximum achievable intensity. Current knowledge and available techniques are too rudimentary for quantitative indications of potential changes in tropical cyclone frequency. The broad geographic regions of cyclogenesis and therefore also the regions affected by tropical cyclones are not expected to change significantly. It is emphasized that the popular belief that the region of cyclogenesis will expand with the 26 degrees C SST isotherm is a fallacy. The very modest available evidence points to an expectation of little or no change in global frequency. Regional and local frequencies could change substantially in either direction| because of the dependence of cyclone genesis and track on other phenomena (e.g.| ENSO) that are not yet predictable. Greatly improved skills from coupled global ocean-atmosphere models are required before improved predictions are possible. 2320,1998,3,4,Tropical forest fragmentation and greenhouse gas emissions,Rainforest fragments in central Amazonia have been found to experience a marked loss of above-ground biomass caused by sharply increased rates of tree mortality and damage near fragment margins. These findings suggest that fragmentation of tropical forests is likely to increase emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases above and beyond that caused by deforestation per se. We estimated committed carbon emissions from deforestation and fragmentation in Amazonia| using three simulated models of landscape change: a 'Rondonia scenario|' which mimicked settlement schemes of small farmers in the southern Amazon; a 'Para scenario|' which imitated large cattle ranches in the eastern Amazon; and a 'random scenario|' in which forest tracts were cleared randomly. Estimates of carbon emissions for specific landscapes were from 0.3 to 42% too low| depending on the amount and spatial pattern of clearing| when based solely on deforestation. Because they created irregular habitat edges or many forest perforations which increased tree mortality| the Rondonia and random-clearing scenarios produced 2-5 times more fragmentation-induced carbon emissions than did the Para scenario| for any given level of clearing. Using current estimates of forest conversion| our simulations suggest that committed carbon emissions from forest fragmentation alone will range from 3.0 to 15.6 million t/year in the Brazilian Amazon| and from 22 to 149 million t/year for tropical forests globally. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. 4533,1998,3,3,Two model analyses of the urban structure of minimal transportation energy consumption,The transportation sector needs to reduce fuel consumption to deal with global warming because it depends on fossil fuels strongly and it seems to be difficult to substitute other fuels. This study aims at investigating an optimal land use in urban areas from the viewpoint of reducing energy consumption for transportation. For this purpose| the authors developed two kinds of models. One minimizes the total trip length under the condition of constant congestion. The other minimizes the fuel consumption directly where congestion is taken into account endogenously. The optimal structures calculated numerically illustrate that business areas are located around the center of a city while residential areas are on the suburbs| which is similar to the actual land use observed generally. These results are compared with the land use of the central business district (CBD) in Tokyo. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2362,1998,4,4,Uncertainty| complexity and concepts of good science in climate change modelling: Are GCMs the best tools?,In this paper we explore the dominant position of a particular style of scientific modelling in the provision of policy-relevant scientific knowledge on future climate change. We describe how the apical position of General Circulation Models (GCMs) appears to follow 'logically' both from conventional understandings of scientific representation and the use of knowledge| so acquired| in decision-making. We argue| however| that both of these particular understandings are contestable. In addition to questioning their current policy-usefulness| we draw upon existing analyses of GCMs which discuss model trade-offs| errors| and the effects of parameterisations| to raise questions about the validity of the conception of complexity in conventional accounts. An alternative approach to modelling| incorporating concepts of uncertainty| is discussed| and an illustrative example given for the case of the global carbon cycle. In then addressing the question of how GCMs have come to occupy their dominant position| we argue that the development of global climate change science and global environmental 'management' frameworks occurs concurrently and in a mutually supportive fashion| so uniting GCMs and environmental policy developments in certain industrialised nations and international organisations. The more basic questions about what kinds of commitments to theories of knowledge underpin different models of 'complexity' as a normative principle of 'good science' are concealed in this mutual reinforcement. Additionally| a rather technocratic policy orientation to climate change may be supported by such science| even though it involves political choices which deserve to be more widely debated. 4562,1998,3,4,Use of 2H-heptafluoropropane| 1-iodoheptafluoropropane| and 2-iodoheptafluoropropane for a high aspect ratio via etch in a high density plasma etch tool,An issue currently facing the semiconductor industry is the use and emission of perfluorocompounds (PFCs)| gases which are believed to contribute to global warming| in a number of plasma processes used in integrated circuit manufacture| including wafer patterning. Several approaches to reducing emissions of these compounds are being considered| namely abatement| recapture/recovery| process optimization| as well as the development of alternative chemistries as PFC substitutes. The authors present here the results of an effort to test several alternatives in a silicon dioxide etch application (high aspect ratio via etch). 2H-heptafluoropropane| 1-iodoheptafluoropropane| and 2-iodoheptafluoropropane| were tested in an Applied Materials Centura 5300 high density plasma etch tool. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy was used to analyze the process effluent. The process performance and emissions of the alternative etchants were compared to those of a standard chemistry on the Centura 5300 etch tool. (C) 1998 American Vacuum Society. [S0734-2101(98)02904-2]. 4489,1998,3,4,Use of novel hydrofluorocarbon and iodofluorocarbon chemistries for a high aspect ratio via etch in a high density plasma etch tool,This paper presents the results of an effort to test several novel chemistries for use as replacements for perfluoro-compounds in dielectric etch processes. Chemistries belonging to the hydrofluorocarbon and iodofluorocarbon families| namely| 2H-heptafluoropropane (CF3-CFH-CF3)| iodotrifluoromethane (CF3I)| 1-iodoheptafluoropropane (CF2I-CF2-CF3)| and 2-iodoheptafluoropropane (CF3-3CFI-CF3) were tested in an Applied Materials Centura 5300 HDP etch tool| using a high aspect ratio silicon dioxide via etch application as the test vehicle. Designed experiment methodology was used in the evaluation. Effluent was analyzed using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and quadrupole mass spectrometry. The performance of the alternative etchants in a high aspect ratio via etch process was compared to that of a standard chemistry on the Centura 5300 etch tool. Significant reductions in global warming emissions| relative to a perfluorinated baseline process| were found to be attainable with the alternative chemistries. 2309,1998,2,4,Variability in seedling water status during drought within a Quercus ilex subsp. ballota population| and its relation to seedling morphology,Differences in morphology| growth and plant water status during drought were studied in greenhouse-grown Quercus ilex subsp. ballota seedlings produced by different mother trees occurring in a savannah-like forest (locally named dehesa) in southern Spain. There were significant differences among mother trees in the biomass of their seeds (mother tree level accounted for 62% of total variance in this trait)| in the percentage of seedlings that emerged and in the time of shoot emergence. The progeny that had high emergence rates (80-90%) also had shea emergence times while the opposite was true for the progeny that had low (43%) and intermediate (70%) emergence rates. Acorn biomass covaried significantly with seedling total biomass and with the biomass of different parts of the seedlings| but not with the partitioning of biomass among roots and shoots (root/shoot ratio) nor to morphological seedling traits such as shoot height| total leaf area| average leaf size| specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf number. All these traits varied significantly among the seedlings produced by different mother trees. The conductance to water vapour (gi|) of the foliage of the seedlings also varied significantly among mother trees and was dependent on the root/shoot ratio as on the total leaf area of the seedlings| but not on the total seedling biomass. One of the six trees that were studied produced seedlings which had a significantly higher root/shoot ratio| smaller leaf area| smaller leaves| higher specific leaf area and shorter stems than the seedlings produced by any other tree. In addition| the former set of seedlings had significantly higher g(1w) 15 and 30 days after drought| and higher leaf water content at the end of the experiment than the other seedlings. We discuss the value of using single seedling traits related to drought tolerance such as root/shoot ratio and leaf area in the framework of the restoration of savannah-like oak forest in the Mediterranean areas. We also discuss the functional implications of the diversity of genotypes within the oak populations in the framework of the global climate change. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. 4581,1998,2,4,Vectors vs humans in Australia - Who is on top down under? An update on vectorborne disease and research on vectors in Australia,Australia has a diversity of vectors and vector-borne human diseases. Mosquito-borne arboviruses are of greatest concern| but there are issues with other vector and pathogen systems. Mosquitoes were responsible for more than 35|000 cases of Ross River virus during 1991-1997. Barmah Forest virus is increasing nationwide| and unidentified bunyaviruses suspected of causing illness have been isolated. Cases of Murray Valley encephalitis have occurred in 14 of the past 20 years in northern Australia. Dengue is a continuing problem for northern Queensland| with various serotypes being active. Japanese encephalitis has appeared in the Torres Strait Islands and threatens mainland Australia. Although malaria is eradicated| almost 1|000 cases are imported annually and occasional cases of local transmission occur. With ticks| paralysis in children occurs annually in eastern Australia. Tick typhus (Queensland Tick Typhus - Rickettsia australis) occurs down the east coast| and (Flinders Island Spotted Fever - Rickett sia honei) in Bass Strait and probably Tasmania. Lyme disease is reported but its presence is controversial. Fleas were responsible for a recent outbreak of murine typhus (Rickettsia typhi) in Western Australia. Mites cause scrub typhus (Orientia tsutsugamushi)| and there was a recent fatality in the Northern Territory. Overall| resources for investigation and control of vector-borne disease have generally been meager. However| various avenues of basic and applied research have been pursued| and have included investigations into mosquito ecology| vector competence| disease epidemiology| and vector control. Disease surveillance programs vary between states| and mosquito control programs are organized and effective in only a few regions. There are concerns for import of vectors such as Aedes albopictus and export of pathogens such as Ross River virus; the former has occurred but the species has not become established| and the latter has occurred and has resulted in a major outbreak in the South Pacific. The predicted scenarios of increased temperature and rainfall with global warming are also causing concern for increases in vector-borne diseases| particularly the endemic arboviruses. Interest by health authorities is gravitating more towards epidemiological reporting and less towards public health action. In many respects| humans have much to do to get 'on top' of vectors and their pathogens 'down under' in Australia. 4642,1998,5,4,Vegetation-atmosphere interactions and their role in global warming during the latest Cretaceous,Forest vegetation has the ability to warm Recent climate by its effects on albedo and atmospheric water vapour| but the role of vegetation in warming climates of the geologic past is poorly understood. This study evaluates the role of forest vegetation in maintaining warm climates of the Late Cretaceous by (1) reconstructing global palaeovegetation for the latest Cretaceous (Maastrichtian); (2) modelling latest Cretaceous climate under unvegetated conditions and different distributions of palaeovegetation; and (3) comparing model output with a global database of palaeoclimatic indicators. Simulation of Maastrichtian climate with the land surface coded as bare soil produces high-latitude temperatures that are too cold to explain the documented palaeogeographic distribution of forest and woodland vegetation. In contrast| simulations that include forest vegetation at high latitudes show significantly warmer temperatures that are sufficient to explain the widespread geographic distribution of high-latitude deciduous forests. These warmer temperatures result from decreased albedo and feedbacks between the land surface and adjacent oceans. Prescribing a realistic distribution of palaeovegetation in model simulations produces the best agreement between simulated climate and the geologic record of palaeoclimatic indicators. Positive feedbacks between high-latitude forests| the atmosphere| and ocean contributed significantly to high-latitude warming during the latest Cretaceous| and imply that high-latitude forest vegetation was an important source of polar warmth during other warm periods of geologic history. 2338,1998,2,3,Vulnerability of island tropical montane cloud forests to climate change| with special reference to East Maui| Hawaii,Island tropical montane cloud forests may be among the most sensitive of the world's ecosystems to global climate change. Measurements in and above a montane cloud forest on East Maul| Hawaii| document steep microclimatic gradients. Relatively small climate-driven shifts in patterns of atmospheric circulation are likely to trigger major local changes in rainfall| cloud cover| and humidity. Increased interannual variability in precipitation and hurricane incidence would provide additional stresses on island biota that are highly vulnerable to disturbance-related invasion of nonnative species. Because of the exceptional sensitivity of these microclimates and forests to change| they may provide valuable 'listening posts' for detecting the onset of human-induced global climate change. 4628,1998,2,4,Vulnerability of rice and wheat yields in NW India to future changes in climate,Agricultural sector is one of the sensitive areas which would be influenced by the projected global warming and associated climate change. In spite of the uncertainties about the precise magnitude of climate change on regional scales| an assessment of the possible impacts of changes in key climatic elements on our agricultural resources is important for formulating response strategies. In this study| vulnerability of wheat and rice crops in northwest India to the projected climate change is examined. CERES wheat and rice models adopted for the study were validated for their ability to reproduce yields at the selected NW Indian stations. The sensitivity experiments with these models showed higher yields for both wheat and rice (28% and 15% respectively for a doubling of CO2) under elevated CO2 levels. A 3 degrees C (2 degrees C) rise in air temperature nearly cancels out the positive effect of elevated CO2 on the wheat (rice) yields. While the wheat crops are found to be sensitive to increase in maximum temperature| the rice crops are vulnerable to increase in minimum temperature. The combined effect of enhanced CO2 and imposed thermal stress on the wheat (rice) crop is 21% (4%) increase in yield for the irrigation schedule presently practised in the region. While the adverse impacts of likely water shortage on wheat crops would be minimised to a certain extent under elevated CO2 levels| they would largely be maintained for the rice crops resulting in about 20% net decline in rice yields. In general| acute water shortage conditions combined with the thermal stress should adversely affect both the wheat and more severely the rice productivity in NW India even under the positive effects of elevated CO2 in the future. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. 4646,1998,3,4,Will a global warming agreement be fair to developing countries?,Fairness| or equity| is a major concern of developing countries in negotiating a global agreement on greenhouse gas emission reductions. Operational versions of several equity concepts are analysed in the context of tradeable permits. We find that a global least-cost mitigation strategy is compatible with a variety of equity criteria. Moreover| the more cost-effective the global strategy| the greater the potential for North-South transfers. However| in many cases| the fairness of the final welfare outcomes differs significantly from the application of first principles for allocating permits. At the same time| several disparate equity criteria yield similar inter-country welfare outcomes. Still| some seemingly reasonable criteria are probably untenable from a political standpoint. 2375,1998,3,3,Will biomass be the environmentally friendly fuel of the future?,Many influential organisations foresee biomass playing a key role in a future| more sustainable| global energy supply matrix. Countries such as Austria| Brazil| Denmark| Finland| Sweden| India| the USA and the UK are actively encouraging the use of biomass for energy| and pushing forward the development of the necessary knowledge and technology for modern biomass energy systems. There is a growing consensus that renewable energy must progressively displace the use of fossil fuels| with fears of global climate change adding urgency to this need. Among the available types of renewable energy biomass is unique in its ability to provide solid| liquid and gaseous fuels which can be stored and transported. The potential resource for bioenergy is large| especially in forest-rich nations| in richer countries where there is a surplus of agricultural land| and in many low latitude countries where high biomass yields are possible. Therefore we expect biomass to be an important fuel of the future| but this cannot be taken for granted. The systems adopted must demonstrate clear environmental and social benefits relative to alternatives if the potential is to be realised. These benefits are not inherent to biomass energy| but depend on site- and fuel cycle-specific factors. Life-cycle analysis and evaluation of external costs are important means for assessing the social and environmental pros and cons of bioenergy systems. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4500,1998,3,4,World population and energy demand growth: the potential role of nuclear energy in an efficient world,The fertility rate for women and the related population growth rate| for numerous developing (transitional) countries| show a downward trend with increasing annual per capita energy use. On the assumption that such trends will continue| estimates are made for some simple cases of the energy demands required to stabilize the world's population in the period 2100 to 2150. An assessment is made of how these energy demands might be met| capitalizing as much as possible on the indigenous energy resources for each of the ten major regions of the world - North America| Latin America| Europe OECD| Former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe| China| Pacific OECD| East Asia| South Asia| Africa| and the Middle East. Consideration is also given to the potential need to limit carbon emissions because of global warming concerns. The study highlights the crucial nature of energy efficiency improvements and the need to utilize all energy sources| including nuclear energy| if the world is to find a sustainable future with a much improved standard of living in the developing world. The deployment of more fission power can build upon the existing successes. The availability of fusion power will depend upon the pace of the development program and| in principle| fusion power deployment might start around the middle of the twenty first century. 2280,1999,2,4,A farmer's view of the Ricardian approach to measuring agricultural effects of climatic change,During the past few years two new methods| each based on the analogous region concept| have been developed to account for farmer adaptation in response to global climatic change. The first| called `Ricardian' by Mendelsohn| Nordhaus| and Shaw (1994)| econometrically estimates the impact of climatic and other variables on the value of farm real estate. Under some conditions| estimates of climate-induced changes in farm real estate capture first-round adaptations by farmers and represent the economic value of climatic change on agriculture. The second method| promulgated by Darwin et al. (1994) in the Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM)| uses a geographic information system to empirically link climatically derived land classes with other inputs and agricultural outputs in an economic model of the world. FARM provides estimates of economic impacts that fully account for all responses by economic agents under global climate change as well as estimates of Ricardian rents. The primary objective of this analysis is to evaluate how well changes in Ricardian rents measure agricultural or other effects of climatic change after all economic agents around the world have responded. Results indicate that changes in Ricardian rents on agricultural land are poor quantitative| but good qualitative| measures of how global climatic change is likely to affect the welfare of agricultural landowners| if one recognizes that increases in Ricardian rents actually indicate losses in landowner welfare and vice versa. Results also indicate that regional changes in Ricardian rents on all land are good qualitative measures of changes in regional welfare. They are poor quantitative welfare measures because they systematically overestimate both benefits and losses and are on average upwardly biased because inflated benefits are larger than exaggerated losses. Results also indicate that| when based on existing land-use patterns| changes in Ricardian rents on all the world's land are poor quantitative and qualitative measures of changes in world welfare. Despite these shortcomings| changes in Ricardian rents can provide useful information when other measures are not available. In this analysis| for example| estimated changes in Ricardian rents on all land indicate that climatic change would likely have detrimental effects in Latin America and Africa| beneficial effects in the former Soviet Union| and either detrimental or beneficial impacts in eastern and northern Europe and western and southern Asia. This is consistent with previous studies showing that climatic change would likely have detrimental| beneficial| and mixed effects on economic welfare in| respectively| equatorial| high latitude| and temperate areas. Estimated changes in Ricardian rents also indicate that aggregating Africa| Latin America| the former Soviet Union| eastern and northern Europe| and western and southern Asia into one region causes FARM's economic model to generate upwardly biased changes in world welfare. Modified results from scenarios with moderately flexible land-use change and which account for current land-use patterns indicate that world welfare may increase if the average surface land temperature does not increase by more than 1.0 or 2.0 degrees C. If the average surface land temperature increases by 3.0 degrees C or more| however| then world welfare may decline. 5041,1999,2,3,A GCM investigation of global warming impacts relevant to tropical cyclone genesis,Two approaches that consider how greenhouse warming might impact the frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis are explored. Results are based on GCM experiments with the q-flux version global climate model of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS); one set representing contemporary atmospheric concentrations of CO2| contrasting with the second set representing the global climate in double CO2 equilibrium. July-September means of climate parameters relevant to TC genesis are computed from the simulations and combined to formulate a seasonal genesis parameter (SGP)| as suggested in an empirical study by Gray (in Shaw| D.B. (ed.)| Meteorology Over the Tropical Oceans| 1979| pp. 155-218). The spatial distribution of the July-September SGP based on the control simulations is compared with the observed distribution and results using other models. The corresponding spatial distribution of the July-September SGP derived from the double CO2 simulations| when compared with the control results| projects a 50% increase in the genesis frequency of TC over the western North Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico basin| but 100-200% increases over the North Pacific Ocean. The increases| most of which are attributable to enhanced ocean temperatures| may be exaggerated| suggesting that the original SGP formulation requires tuning or other revisions. For example| it is noted that SGP computed from the NCEP 1982-1994 re-analysis climatology do not accurately reflect the known spatial distributions of TC genesis frequency. The second approach detects easterly waves over the eastern North Atlantic Ocean by spectral analysis of vorticity and wind component time trends| comparing wave activity in the control and double CO2 simulations. Results indicate a southward shift in future trajectories of easterly waves over West Africa and significant increases in their average amplitude as they cross the African coast and begin to traverse the Eastern Atlantic along 14 degrees N. Copyright (C) 1999 Royal Meteorological Society. 4923,1999,4,4,A heuristic model for the calculation of dinitogen and nitrous oxide flux from nitrogen-15-labeled soil,Very sensitive measurements of N-2 and N2O flux from soil are possible when gas evolved from N-15-labeled soil is analyzed by isotope ratio mass spectrometry| This approach is useful for studying the fate of nitrogen fertilizer and for studying soil microbial processes contributing to the atmospheric increase of nitrous oxide| a radiatively active trace gas that can contribute to global warming and ozone depletion. Most systems of equations that relate isotopic analysis to gas nut are sufficiently complex that certain limitations and potentials of the N-15 approach may be overlooked. We describe a graphical representation of labeled N-gas flux that illustrates the equations and encourages critical thinking regarding the implementation of related experiments| This model is used to interpret underestimation that occurs if flux derives from multiple pools of differing enrichment. A statistical derivation is presented for a previously published simulation of underestimation due to multiple pools. The same equations are applied to field data to explore whether temporal variation in soil nitrate enrichment is likely to cause significant underestimation. Two sampling strategies are proposed that may eliminate the assumption of pool uniformity| thereby eliminating a potential source of underestimation. 4968,1999,3,2,A highly-advanced solar house with solar thermal and sky radiation cooling,A unique energy-independent house ('HARBEMAN house'; HARmony BEtween Man And Nature) incorporating solar thermal| underground coolers| sky radiation cooling| photovoltaic electricity generation and rain-water collection was built in Sendai (latitude; 38 degrees 17'00 " north and longitude; 140 degrees 50'14 " east)| Japan during July| 1996. The average solar energy received on a horizontal surface there in January is 7900 kJ/m(2)/day. This paper reports the experimental results since September 1996 to date. The annual variations of water temperature in the underground main tank| heating/cooling/domestic hot water demands| collected and emitted heats by solar collector and sky radiator| were measured. The paper also clarifies the method of computer simulation results for the HARBEMAN house and its results compared with the annual experimental data. The proposed HARBEMAN house| which meets almost all its energy demands| including space heating and cooling| domestic hot water| electricity generated by photovoltaic cell and rainwater for standard Japanese homes. The proposed system has two operational modes: (i) a long-term thermal energy storage mode extending from September to March and (ii) a long-term cool storage mode extending from April to August. The system is intended to utilize as little energy as possible to collect and emit the heat. This paper also clarifies the primary energy consumption| the external costs (externalities) and the means for the reduction of carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. The primary-energy consumption and carbon-dioxide emissions of the proposed house are only one-tenth of those of the conventional standard house. Moreover| the thermal performance of this house will be compared with the results of the IEA solar low-energy house TASK 13. Finally| this paper validates the external costs of this house| which have been intensively discussed in recent years in European countries. The present energy-sufficient house will be attempting in 21st century to reduce carbon dioxide emissions| which will be one of the key factors for mitigating global warming. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5091,1999,4,2,A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction,A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction is outlined| based on a treatment of climate as the attractor of a nonlinear dynamical system D with distinct quasi-stationary regimes. The main application is toward anthropogenic climate change| considered as the response of D to a small-amplitude imposed forcing f. The primary features of this perspective can be summarized as follows. First| the response to f will be manifest primarily in terms of changes to the residence frequency associated with the quasi-stationary regimes. Second| the geographical structures of these regimes will be relatively insensitive to f. Third| the large-scale signal will be most strongly influenced by f in rather localized regions of space and time. In this perspective| the signal arising from f will be strongly dependent of D's natural variability. A theoretical framework for the perspective is developed based on a singular vector decomposition of D's tangent propagator. Evidence for the dyamical perspective is drawn from a number of observational and modeling studies of intraseasonal| interannual| and interdecadal variability| and from climate change integrations. It is claimed that the dynamical perspective might resolve the apparent discrepancy in global warming trends deduced from surface and free troposphere temperature measurements. A number of specific recommendations for the evaluation of climate models are put forward| based on the ideas developed in this paper. 2278,1999,4,3,A system to monitor climate change with epilithic lichens,The issue of biological monitoring of the local consequences of anticipated global climate change is considered for the Central Negev Highlands| Israel. Epilithic lichens are suggested as biological monitors. The proposed methodology of such monitoring consists of a sampling scheme| including lichen measurement along transects on flat calcareous rocks| and construction of a trend detection index (TDI). TDI is a sum of lichen species cover with coefficients chosen so as to ensure maximum ability to detect global climate trends. Coefficients have been estimated in a study of Lichens along an altitudinal gradient from 500 to 1000 m a.s.l. The gradient study demonstrated that the TDI index is performed better than other integrated indices. Recommendations on this system to monitor climate change with epilthic lichens are given. Measuring| for instance| a hundred transects in fifty plots (two transet per plot scheme) allows one to detect a climate-driven change in the epilithic lichen community corresponding to a 0.8 degrees C shift in annual mean temperature. Such resolution appears sufficient in view of global warming of 2.5 degrees C considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a realistic prediction for the end of the next century. 5031,1999,3,4,A thermoacoustic Stirling heat engine,Electrical and mechanical power| together with other forms of useful work| are generated worldwide at a rate of about 10(12) watts| mostly using heat engines. The efficiency of such engines is limited by the laws of thermodynamics and by practical considerations such as the cost of building and operating them. Engines with high efficiency help to conserve fossil fuels and other natural resources| reducing global-warming emissions and pollutants. In practice| the highest efficiencies are obtained only in the most expensive| sophisticated engines| such as the turbines in central utility electrical plants. Here we demonstrate an inexpensive thermoacoustic engine that employs the inherently efficient Stirling cycle(1). The design is based on a simple acoustic apparatus with no moving parts. Our first small laboratory prototype| constructed using inexpensive hardware (steel pipes)| achieves an efficiency of 0.30| which exceeds the values of 0.10-0.25 attained in other heat engines(5|6) with no moving parts. Moreover| the efficiency of our prototype is comparable to that of the common internal combustion engine(2) (0.25-0.40) and piston-driven Stirling engines(3|4) 4 (0.20-0.38). 4937,1999,3,2,Addressing global warming and biodiversity through forest restoration and coastal wetlands creation,The Climate Challenge is a partnership between the Department of Energy and the electric utility industry to reduce| avoid| and sequester greenhouse gases. A portion of the initiative| the sequestration of greenhouse gases| is the focus of this presentation. Over 4 million acres of bottomland hardwood forests were cleared for agriculture in the Mississippi River Valley in the 1970s. Reestablishing these forests would improve depleted wildlife habitats| serve as wildlife corridors| increase biodiversity| and decrease soil erosion. Also| Louisiana is losing coastal wetlands at a rate of approximately 25 square miles/year. This coastal erosion is due to a number of factors and many efforts are currently underway to address the matter. One such effort is the use of material generated in the dredging of navigational canals; however| this material is low in nutrient value| making the regeneration of marsh grasses more difficult. In addition| bottomland hardwood forests and coastal wetland grasses are excellent 'carbon sinks' because they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and store it in living plant tissue. Entergy Services| Inc. is an electric utility with a service territory that comprises portions of both the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Gulf of Mexico coastline. This provides an opportunity to positively address both habitat losses noted above while at the same time addressing global warming| forest fragmentation| and biodiversity. Entergy| through its affiliation with the UtiliTree Carbon Company| is participating in projects that will investigate the feasibility of using bottomland hardwood reforestation on cleared marginal farmlands now managed by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries and the US Fish and Wildlife Service. Entergy has also begun a research project with the Environmental Protection Agency and the State of Louisiana. The research is a compost demonstration project that will utilize wood waste generated through our tree-trimming program as a compost material that will be mixed with low nutrient dredge material to create new coastal wetlands. Taken together| Entergy's initiatives will be able to address global warming through carbon sequestration| restore fragmented forest habitats| reduce coastal erosion and improve the quality of a vital coastal aquatic nursery habitat. Efforts will be made to manage the created habitats for biodiversity. Pulling all these ideas together creates an effect in which the whole is greater than the sum| of the parts. In such a synergy of ideas| there are no losers and the winners are both industry participants and the environment. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V| All rights reserved. 5122,1999,3,4,Airless drying - Developments since IDS '94,Since its introduction to IDS'94 delegates| significant progress has been made with the development of airless drying technology. The ceramic industry internationally is beginning to benefit from both the energy use and drying time reductions it achieves| while on the basis of further theoretical work carried out since 1993 other industries| including the bioenergy sector| should also soon begin to exploit its advantages. As global warming becomes a reality and oil reserves decline| superheated steam drying and gasification of biomass will contribute to the mitigation of those problems. 5079,1999,2,4,An analysis of the influence of annual thermal variables on the occurrence of fifteen warmwater fishes,Multisource fish-sampling data and U.S. Geological Survey temperature data from streams throughout the United States were used to investigate the influence of derived thermal regime variables on the presence or absence of 15 common warmwater fish species. The 3-year average annual thermal regime was calculated for streams where presence or absence was known for these 15 species. Six variables estimated to be of biological importance to the winter and summer survival and recruitment of a species| including measures of feeding and nonfeeding periods| were calculated from these thermal regimes. Stepwise discriminant analysis and multiple regression were used to select optimal variables for creating multivariate models. Parametric and nonparametric multivariate discriminant analyses were then performed to test our ability to correctly classify presence or absence using the thermal variables. These statistical empirical models were able to correctly predict presence or absence with greater than 90% accuracy for 13 of 15 species. Nonparametric (Kth nearest neighbor) analyses had marginally more accurate predictions than parametric (linear) analyses. This technique may allow for an improved estimation of potential changes in distribution under various global warming scenarios. 5087,1999,2,2,An insect (Argyresthia retinella| Lep.| Yponomeutidae) outbreak in northern birch forests| released by climatic changes?,1. In the early 1990s| birch Betula pubescens L. forests in north-western Norway were damaged by the bud- and shoot-mining larvae of Argyresthia retinella not previously known for outbreaks. In 1993-96| the outbreak was mapped and changes in attack intensity and foliage structure were quantified by sampling birch twigs along transects from coast to inland. Results were considered in relation to a variable climate. 2. The outbreak extended 400 km along the coast| mainly within the lowest 100-150 m a.s.l. It started in the late 1980s and the attack intensity culminated in 1993-94. Repeatedly| 30-50% of the leaf-carrying shoots were damaged or killed. Trees compensated by sprouting clusters of shoots from undamaged shoots and| hence| increased foliage clumping. Eventually| twigs and branches died. 3| The overwintering post-diapause egg| the larva and the adult stages were considered the most sensitive to changes in temperature climate. The air temperature| averaged for a combination of these stages| was calculated for each year| as well as deviations from the long-term (1868-1996) average. 4| The 5-year running average of deviations approached or exceeded +1 degrees C three times: in the 1930s| around 1960 and around 1990. The third peak coincided with the outbreak of the 1990s. There are no reports of an A. retinella outbreak in either the 1930s or 1960s. However| in one photographic documentation from 1940| clumped foliage structure of birch suggests an outbreak in the 1930s. 5. Severe A. retinella attacks appear to be a fairly new phenomenon| possibly connected to recent high temperature deviations. If so| with the present air temperature climate| outbreaks may occur at intervals of approximate to 20-25 years. With a trend of decreasing air temperature| outbreaks may be less frequent. At higher temperatures| natural or from anthropogenic global warming| the outcome is more uncertain although more frequent outbreaks may occur initially. 6. It is recommended that foresters learn to identify damage made by A. retinella and include observations on this insect in their reporting. Monitoring A. retinella damage in the North and elsewhere| should contribute to the understanding of the outbreak ecology of this insect. 2270,1999,4,4,An interactive cirrus cloud radiative parameterization for global climate models,An interactive cirrus cloud radiative parameterization is developed for global climate models from recent observations and analytical results that more accurately characterize cirrus cloud optical and microphysical properties. The radiative properties are based on the assumption that cirrus clouds are composed of hexagonal crystals. For the infrared component| a new mass absorption coefficient is parameterized to calculate emissivity| and for the solar| single-scattering properties from an existing parameterization are modified and employed. The solar and infrared optical properties are given as a function of ice water content and effective particle size. Aircraft observations are used to parameterize the microphysical properties in terms of temperature| thus allowing the radiative properties to interact with the local model climate. The interactive cirrus radiative parameterization is evaluated in model-to-observation comparisons with a comprehensive set of cloud and radiation measurements obtained during the spring 1994 and fall 1995 Intensive Observation Periods of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program. It is shown that the model with the new parameterization calculates realistic infrared radiation and improved solar radiation incident at the surface. Specifically| biases in calculated solar direct and-diffuse fluxes are reduced by 60 and 40%| respectively. Further| the shortwave flux is shown to be more sensitive than the longwave flux to variability in the ice water content and in the base and top heights of observed clouds replicated in model calculations. The potential effect of the new parameterization on climate simulations is investigated in the context of initial radiative forcing. The new parameterization calculates a significantly different ice water path distribution from an existing parameterization that has been used for global climate change studies. For example| in the high latitudes of the summer hemisphere the new ice water path is larger by more than 7.7 g m(-2) (>100%)| and in the tropics it can be smaller by as much as -3.5 g m(-2) (similar to 80%). These differences lead to an increased solar albedo effect in the high gm latitudes of the summer hemisphere and a decreased greenhouse effect in the tropics| both of which contribute to a smaller| 2.26 W m(-2)| global- and annual-mean forcing of the surface-troposphere system. 4903,1999,4,2,An introduction to global warming,Thy physics of climate and of climate changes associated with increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are briefly presented. Construction of a "toy model" of the climate is discussed. Possibilities for reducing carbon dioxide emissions are indicated. Degrees of uncertainty characterizing predictions of climate responses to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are presented. (C) 1999 American Association of Physics Teachers. 5110,1999,3,4,An overview of fast pyrolysis of biomass,Biomass fast pyrolysis is of rapidly growing interest in Europe as it is perceived to offer significant logistical and hence economic advantages over other thermal conversion processes. This is because the liquid product can be stored until required or readily transported to where it can be most effectively utilised. The objective of this paper is to review the design considerations faced by the developers of fast pyrolysis| upgrading and utilisation processes in order to successfully implement the technologies. Aspects of design of a fast pyrolysis system include feed drying; particle size; pretreatment; reactor configuration; heat supply; heat transfer; heating rates; reaction temperature; vapour residence time; secondary cracking; char separation; ash separation; liquids collection. Each of these aspects is reviewed and discussed. A case study shows the application of the technology to waste wood and how this approach gives very good control of contaminants. Finally the problem of spillage is addressed through respirometric tests on bio-oils concluding with a summary of the potential contribution that fast pyrolysis can make to global warming. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2275,1999,4,4,Analysis of atmospheric aerosols by PIXE: the importance of real time and complementary measurements,Particle-Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE) has been used for more than 30 yr in many urban and background air pollution studies. The technique has certainly contributed to the understanding of source-receptor relationship for aerosol particles as well as to aerosol physics and chemistry. In the last few years| where aerosol issues were strongly linked to global climate change through the relationship between aerosol and atmospheric radiation points to new challenges in atmospheric sciences| where PIXE could Flay an important role. Also the recognition for the inter-relationship between aerosol and liquid and gas phases in the atmosphere makes important to integrate PINE aerosol analysis with other complementary measurements. The use of Nephelometers and Aethalometers to measure scattering and absorption of radiation by aerosol particles can be done in parallel with particle filter collection for PIXE analysis. Parallel measurements of trace gases using traditional monitors as well as with new techniques such as Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) that can provide concentration of O-3| SO2| NO3| NO2| HCHO| HNO3| Benzene| Toluene| and Xylene| is also important for both urban and remote aerosol studies. They provide information that allows a much richer interpretation of PINE data. Recently developed instruments that provide real time aerosol data such as the Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance (TEOM) PM10 monitor and automatic real time organic and elemental carbon analyzers provide extremely useful data to complement PINE aerosol analysis. The concentrations of trace elements measured by PIXE comprise only 10-30% of the aerosol mass| leaving the organic aerosol characterization and measurement with an important role. The aerosol source apportionment provided by PIXE analysis can be extended with other aerosol measurements such as scattering and absorption estimating for example| the radiative impact of each discriminated aerosol source. The aerosol bulk PIXE measurements can be complemented with soluble concentrations provided by Ion Chromatography (IC) and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Recent developments in remote sensing techniques and products also enhance significantly regional aerosol studies. Three-dimensional air mass trajectories should be integrated in aerosol studies for urban and remote areas. The applications of these techniques to study urban aerosols from Sao Paulo and Santiago de Chile have broadened extensively the scientific scope of these studies. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4917,1999,2,4,Analytic representation of the active layer thickness field| Kuparuk River Basin| Alaska,The initial response of permafrost to global warming could be an increase in active-layer thickness. Given that such changes could have severe consequences for human infrastructure and ecosystem stability| it is important to obtain information about spatial variations of the active layer corresponding to current climatic conditions| and to determine the magnitude of possible near-surface permafrost degradation associated with climatic change. Simple analytical solutions for frost and thaw penetration depth have long been available| but were used primarily for practical applications at point locations in cold-region engineering. One of these methods| developed at Moscow State University by Kudryavtsev and co-workers| was used to develop a spatially distributed analytic model that estimates the maximum annual depth of thaw. Kudryavtsev's procedures account for the effects of snow cover| vegetation| soil moisture| thermal properties| and regional climate| and provide estimates of surface temperature and active-layer thickness. GIS techniques were used to incorporate climate records| digital cartographic products| and field data into a spatially distributed estimate of active-layer thickness. Procedures were applied over a rectangular 22 300 km(2) area in north-central Alaska containing complex patterns of topography| vegetation| and soils. Validation procedures indicate that the Kudrayavtsev solution| adapted for spatial applications| yields accuracy and spatial resolution comparable to an existing semi-empirical method. The simplicity and low data requirements of the Kudryavtsev solution make it readily adaptable to different geographic scales and areas. The method has potential applications in climate-change studies. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5038,1999,2,4,Analyzing investments for managing Lake Erie levels under climate change uncertainty,Analyses of investments that are irreversible and have uncertain benefits should consider the option of delaying a decision. For instance| the benefits of many water resource projects could change if global warming occurs. The magnitude of that warming is uncertain| and delaying projects until more information is available might be optimal. We examine whether this is true for construction of an outflow control structure for Lake Erie. Using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC)-based decision analysis| we find that considering climate uncertainty does make a difference. Climate change beliefs| in the form of prior distributions over transient climate scenarios| can affect the optimal strategy: in particular| climate change makes delaying construction more attractive. The option value of deferring the decision to build is as high as $20 million. Ignoring the possibility of climate warming can inflict an expected penalty as large as 20% of the cost of the control structure. We also compare climate risks to uncertainties in stage-damage curves and find that they are approximately of equal importance. 2295,1999,4,4,Application of a global discharge model to atmospheric model simulations in the BALTEX region,In this study| a hydrological discharge model is presented which may be applied as a tool to validate the simulation of the hydrologic cycle of atmospheric models that are used in climate change studies. It can also be applied in studies of global climate change to investigate how changes in climate may affect the discharge of large rivers. The model was developed for the application with the climate models used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. It describes the translation and retention of the lateral waterflows on the global scale as a function of the spatially distributed land surface characteristics which are globally available. Here| global scale refers to the resolution of 0.5 degrees and lower| corresponding to a typical average gridbox area of about 2|500 km(2). The hydrological discharge model separates between the flow processes of overland flow| baseflow and riverflow. The model parameters are mainly functions of the gridbox characteristics of topography and gridbox length. The hydrological discharge model is applied to the BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment) region using input from an atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM4) as well as from a regional climate model (REMO). The simulated inflows into the Baltic Sea and its sub-catchments are compared to observed and naturalized discharges. The results of this comparison are discussed and the simulated values of precipitation| surface air temperature and accumulated snowpack are compared to both observed data and surrogate data. 5073,1999,3,3,Application of helio-aero-gravity concept in producing energy and suppressing pollution,Fossil fuels account for about 80% of the world's annual energy demand. Renewables contribute 14% and nuclear some 6%. These roles will change as population grows| energy demand rises| cheap oil and gas are depleted| global warming effects continue rising and city pollution worsens the living conditions. The development of new and renewable energy resources and devices will emerge more aggressively to address the world energy and environment situation. The helio-aero-gravity power concept consists of an air turbine-generator system in a chimney installed at the center of a carefully selected piece of land where insolation is high. This land is covered by a transparent canopy with a small opening at the periphery. As the sun heats the land under the canopy| it heats the air to raise and force it into the chimney where it turns the rotor installed in the chimney| thus producing the electrical power with the generator. Under reasonable conditions with an efficiency of 5%| the power| thus calculated| would be 50 MW per square kilometer of land. An estimated cost of the energy delivered by a plant of 100 MW would be less than l%/kWh of electricity. Conversely| the air flow can be forced downward by spraying water at the top of the chimney in case suppression of pollution is desired in big cities. The cold air at the top sinks with the pollutant continuously| thus turning the rotor installed at the bottom of the chimney. The pros and cons of the concept will be discussed and details of the experimental plants and results| thus obtained| will be presented. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5093,1999,3,4,Application of life cycle assessment to manufacturing of nonferrous metals,Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a broad topic that is currently being discussed. However| little is known about the assessment method of environmental impacts expressing a single index| especially in Japan. Non ferrous metals are one of the basic materials for industrial products. The establishment of the assessment for these materials is important to improve the quality of LCA for products. We have proposed a method of assessment for total impact in Japan| and a case study of LCA is performed concerning the nonferrous metals in this paper. The stages considered in this LCA study are: goal and scope of the inventory analysis and impact assessment. The inventory data include the consumption of raw materials and the emissions through the mining| transport and manufacturing. Resource depletion| global warming| acidification| eutrophication and air pollution have been considered as impact categories. The main results of this study are summarized as follows| (1) The impacts of eutrophication| air pollution and resource depletion are serious for the production of aluminum. (2) The stages of the consumption of non oil and that of the production of non oil are serious for the production of zinc| because the large quantity of non oil such as cokes are consumed. (3) We have showed that the interpretation will differ if the criteria of materials for assessment are changed from weight (per kg) to tensile strength (per MN). 2247,1999,2,3,Arctic soil respiration: Effects of climate and vegetation depend on season,Arctic ecosystems are important in the context of global climate change because the most rapid rises in air temperature are expected at high northern latitudes during winter. The presence of extensive soil carbon reserves in the Arctic suggests that substantial feedbacks to CO(2)-induced climate change could occur if warming alters carbon cycling belowground. Characterization of the controls on regional patterns of belowground CO(2) release through the annual cycle is an important step towards evaluating potential feedbacks from arctic ecosystems to climate change. In this study| we assess seasonal control over the influences by climate and vegetation-type on CO(2) efflux from belowground in the Alaskan tundra. Our results indicate that climate had strong effects on belowground CO(2) release in both seasons. By contrast| vegetation-type had little impact on CO(2) efflux from belowground in winter but was the principal control in summer. Together| these results demonstrate that seasonality is a critical factor regulating climate and vegetation-type effects on belowground CO(2) release| which should be included in regional models of net carbon balance in arctic ecosystems. 5007,1999,2,4,Arctic soils: Spatial distribution| zonality and transformation due to global change,Published and unpublished information on Arctic soils| soil-forming factors and possible transformations of the soil cover due to global change are reviewed. In high latitudes the soil distribution is strongly controlled by geogenic factors (relief and substrates). Locally they transform the Arctic macroclimate| which is principally humid| to produce arid phenomena in the soil landscapes. All the soil processes from podzolization to salinization can be qualitatively distinguished in every region of the Arctic. Quantitatively| the effect of these soil-forming processes decreases with increasing latitude. A new zonal division of Arctic soils is proposed| comprising (1) High Arctic barren (tundra)| (2) Mid Arctic tundra and (3) Low Arctic and Subarctic tundra. In addition to climate warming| important consequences of global change are soil pollution and the physical disturbance of the Arctic soil cover. All the countries of the northern hemisphere are contributing to Arctic soil pollution. Winter warming associated with climate change could cause an intensification of cryoturbation in the continental part of Siberia and lead to the more active fossilization of soil carbon and the increased importance of the cryopedosphere as a carbon sink. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 4918,1999,2,4,Are interdecadal sea level changes along the Indian coast influenced by variability of monsoon rainfall?,The Mumbai (Bombay) tide gauge data| the only century-long record in the Indian Ocean| show that interdecadal changes in sea level mimic those in rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. We propose that the link between rainfall and sea level arises from changes in salinity in coastal waters. Rivers fed by southwest monsoon (June-September) rainfall bring a large fraction of the runoff to the Bay of Bengal| from where it is transported to the west coast of India by an equatorward East India Coastal Current| which is triggered partly by the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. The West India Coastal Current carries the low-salinity water from the bay as well as the runoff from local rivers northward. The advection of the riverine inflow to Mumbai occurs within a season. but the slow mixing in the ocean forces changes in the cross-shore density gradient on longer timescales. This density gradient forces a two-layer geostrophic circulation| with a surface current| which flows with the lighter water on its right| and an undercurrent. Lower (higher) salinity at the coast implies higher (lower) coastal sea level and a rise (fall) of the pycnocline at the coast. Thus the interdecadal variability of sea level along the Indian coast can be Linked directly to the variability of the monsoon| the major aspect of the climate of the region| but by a mechanism that is different from those generally proposed to link sea level to climate change; these hypotheses usually invoke a change in volume because of global warming. 4902,1999,3,2,Assessment of automotive fuels,Energy demand all over the world increases steadily and| within the next decades| is almost completely met by fossil fuels. This poses increasing pressure on oil supply and reserves. Concomitant is the concern about environmental pollution| especially by carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion| with the risk of global warming. Environmental well-being requires a modified mix of energy sources to emit less carbon dioxide| starting with a move to natural gas and ending with the market penetration of renewable energies| Efforts should focus on advanced oil and gas production and processing technologies and on regeneratively produced fuels like hydrogen or bio-fuels as well. Within the framework of an industrial initiative in Germany| a process of defining one or two alternative fuels was started| to bring them into the market within the next years. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. 4952,1999,2,3,Assessment of the probability of extreme weather events and their potential effects in large conurbations,The likelihood of occurrence of extreme high-temperature run events is estimated for different values of the event intensity and persistence from very long synthetic time series of daily maximum temperatures generated by Monte Carlo simulations using a first-order autoregressive or Markov model. A theoretical analysis reveals a higher relative sensitivity of the simulated extreme event probabilities to changes in the variability of climate than to changes in its mean state. Moreover| this sensitivity relatively increases at a nonlinear rate the more extreme the event. The developed probabilistic model is applied in order to derive local scenarios of extreme high-temperature run events for a large conurbation like the city of Berlin assuming both arbitrary hypothetical and physically based new climate states described by changes in the model parameters (e.g. the mean| the standard deviation and the first-order autocorrelation of the daily maximum temperature time series). As a consequence of a 1.7 degrees C increase in the mean as well as a 19% increase in the temperature variability in July as predicted by the climate model ECHAM-1/LSG assuming an unrestricted future increase in the global atmospheric concentration of climate relevant greenhouse gases according to the IPCC Scenario A ("Business as usual") the intensity as well as the persistence of extreme high-temperature run events will rise considerably up to the end of the next century. In particular| intense hot spells characterized by at least five consecutive daily maximum temperatures equaling or exceeding 33 degrees C are expected to occur every eight years under the new climate conditions compared to a current repetition time of about 47 years. The potential environmental effects might be a significant increase in the heat-stress-related morbidity and mortality rate| an aggravation of the summer smog situation and a destabilization of the urban ecosystems. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5051,1999,4,4,Atmospheric lifetime and global warming potential of HFC-245fa,We describe the method used to compute the global warming potential of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) 245fa (CHF2CH2CF3). The Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) two-dimensional (latitude-height) chemistry-transport model was used to calculate the atmospheric lifetime and atmospheric scale height of HFC-245fa. Assuming that reaction with OH is the only removal mechanism| the recommended rate constant from Jet Propulsion Laboratory [1997] (6.1 x 10(-13) exp (-1330/T) cm(3) s(-1)) implies a lifetime of 7.6 pears and an average atmospheric scale height of 35 km in the stratosphere. Using the IR absorption cross sections for HFC-245fa and CFC-11 determined in the laboratory| the AER one-dimensional radiative-convective model was used to calculate the radiative forcing| The value for HFC-245fa is 1.14 times larger than that for CFC-11 on a mass basis and 1.11 larger on a per molecule basis. The global warming potentials for HFC-245fa (relative to carbon dioxide) are 2400| 760| and 240 (based on the values for absolute global warming potential for carbon dioxide reported by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1996]) at integration time horizons of 20| 100| and 500 years| respectively. 4900,1999,4,4,Atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers: Reactivity toward OH| UV spectra| and IR absorption cross sections,The rate constants for the reactions of OH radicals with the fluorinated ethers| CHF2-O-CHF2 (HFOC-134) and CF3CH2-O-CH2CF3 (HFOC-356mff)| were measured using the flash photolysis resonance fluorescence technique over the temperature range 277-370 K to give the following Arrhenius expressions: k(HFOC-134)(T) = (0.63(-0.16)(+0.20)) x 10(-12) exp\{-(1646 +/- 76)/T\} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| k(HFOC-356mff)(T) (2.32(-0.41)(+0.46)) x 10(-12): exp\{-(790 +/- 47)/T\} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). On the basis of the analysis of the available experimental results| the following Arrhenius expression can be recommended for the rate constant of the reaction between OH and HFOC-134: k(HFOC-134)(T) = (0.82(-0.24)(+0.34)) x 10(-12) exp\{-(1730 +/- 110)/T\} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). Atmospheric lifetimes were estimated to be 24.8 years for HFOC-134 (23.8 years based on the results of this study alone) and 0.3 years for HFOC-356mff. Infrared absorption cross sections of HFOC-134| HFOC-356mff|and HFOC-125 (CHF2-O-CF3) were measured at T = 295 K from 500 to 1600 cm(-1) and the global warming potentials of the three compounds were estimated. Ultraviolet absorption spectra of the ethers were measured between 160 and 220 Mm. The general pattern of reactivity of hydrofluoroethers toward OH is discussed. 2286,1999,5,4,Atmospheric transmission of North Atlantic Heinrich events,We model the response of the climate system during Heinrich event 2 (H2) by employing an atmospheric general circulation model| using boundary conditions based on the concept of a "canonical" Heinrich event. The canonical event is initialized with a full-height Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) and CLIMAP sea surface temperatures (SSTs)| followed by lowering of the LIS| then warming of North Atlantic SSTs. Our modeled temperature and wind fields exhibit spatially variable responses over the Northern Hemisphere at each stage of the H2 event. In some regions the climatic responses are additive| whereas in other regions they cancel or are of opposite sign| suggesting that Heinrich event climatic variations may have left complex signatures in geologic records. We find variations in the tropical water balance and the mass balance of ice sheets| and implications for variations in terrestrial methane production from the contraction of northern permafrost regions and the expansion of tropical wetlands. 2290,1999,2,4,Atmospheric water vapor pressure over land surfaces: A generic algorithm with data input limited to air temperature| precipitation and geographic location,A lack of information for surface water vapor pressure (WVP) represents a major impediment to model-assisted ecosystem analysis for understanding plant-environment interactions or for projecting biospheric responses to global climate change. This paper reports on a generic algorithm that captures global variation in monthly WVP The algorithm solves WVP in terms of reduction from saturation WVP as a negative exponential function of potential evapotranspiration; the reduction rate per unit potential evapotranspiration in turn varies with monthly precipitation and a series of variables that distinguish local climate regimes. Data input to the algorithm is limited to monthly air temperature and precipitation| plus latitude| longitude and elevation. The algorithm is specified through regression fitting to monthly climate normal data from 852 stations around the world. It accounts for 96% of the variance in the WVP data| with a root mean square error of 0.17 kPa| or 12% of the data mean. The algorithm closely reproduces five-year sequential monthly WVP data for each of five selected United States locations representitative of diverse climate regimes: the average error generally falls within +/-12% of the data mean| and the absolute error within +/-0.2 kPa. Its projections also compare favorably against the WVP output from the General Circulation Models for temperature and precipitation conditions under the scenario of a doubled atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration: the two fall within +/-10% of each other for 75% of a total 264 data cases| or within +/-20% for 94% of the cases. These statistics suggest that the spatially-based algorithm Is useful for projecting temporal variation in WVP| and for extrapolative applications beyond the fluctuation range of present climate. 2246,1999,2,3,Below-ground respiratory responses of sugar maple and red maple saplings to atmospheric CO(2) enrichment and elevated air temperature,The research described in this paper represents a part of a much broader research project with the general objective of describing the effects of elevated [CO(2)] and temperature on tree growth| physiological processes| and ecosystem-level processes. The specific objective of this research was to examine the below-ground respiratory responses of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) and red maple (Acer rubrum L.) seedlings to elevated atmospheric [CO(2)] and temperature. Red maple and sugar maple seedlings were planted in the ground in each of 12 open-top chambers and exposed from 1994 through 1997 to ambient air or air enriched with 30 Pa CO(2)| in combination with ambient or elevated (+4 degrees C) air temperatures. Carbon dioxide efflux was measured around the base of the seedlings and from root-exclusion zones at intervals during 1995 and 1996 and early 1997. The CO(2) efflux rates averaged 0.4 mu mol CO(2) m(-2) s(-1) in the root-exclusion zones and 0.75 mu mol CO2 m(-2) s-1 around the base of the seedlings. Mineral soil respiration in root-exclusion zones averaged 12% higher in the high temperature treatments than at ambient temperature| but was not affected by CO(2) treatments. The fraction of total efflux attributable to root + rhizosphere respiration ranged from 14 to 61% in measurements made around red maple plants| and from 35 to 62% around sugar maple plants. Root respiration rates ranged from 0 to 0.94 mu mol CO(2) s(-1) m(-2) of soil surface in red maple and from 0 to 1.02 in sugar maple. In both 1995 and 1996 root respiration rates of red maple were highest in high-CO(2) treatments and lowest in high temperature treatments. Specific red maple root respiration rates of excised roots from near the soil surface in 1996 were also highest under CO(2) enrichment and lowest in high temperature treatments. In sugar maple the highest rates of CO2 efflux were from around the base of plants exposed to both high temperature and high-CO(2)| even though specific respiration rates were lowest for this species under the high temperature and CO(2) enrichment regime. In both species| patterns of response to treatments were similar in root respiration and root mass| indicating that the root respiration responses were due in part to differences in root mass. The results underscore the need for separating the processes occurring in the roots from those in the forest floor and mineral soil in order to increase our understanding of the effects of global climate change on carbon sequestration and cycling in the below-ground systems of forests. 4961,1999,3,3,Benefits from managing farm produced nutrients,Manures and fertilizers are applied to agricultural lands in excess of recommended amounts| resulting in widespread pollution of surface and ground water and contributing a substantial source of greenhouse gases associated with global warming. By developing policies that exploit the value of farm produced nutrients| input costs can be minimized. Better accounting for or crediting of farm produced nutrients is leading to economically beneficial conservation of fertilizer. In addition| hog producers who own enough land may benefit from properly managing manure nutrients. Poultry litter is valuable as fertilizer and can be marketed by independent dealers to farmers in nutrient deficit areas| with very modest assistance from the government. Dairy producers may modify their past income support programs to finance central compost facilities. Although nutrient problems were neglected in the past| recent Federal initiatives and joint initiatives with states exploit many of these and other opportunities to avoid excessive application of nutrients to the land. 2263,1999,2,4,Biomass production and species composition change in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem after long-term exposure to elevated atmospheric CO2,To determine the long-term impact of elevated CO2 on primary production of native tallgrass prairie| we compared the responses of tallgrass prairie at ambient and twice-ambient atmospheric CO2 levels over an 8-year period. Plots in open-top chambers (4.5 m diameter) were exposed continuously (24 h) to ambient and elevated CO2 from early April to late October each year. Unchambered plots were monitored also. Aboveground peak biomass was determined by clipping each year in early August| and root growth was estimated by harvesting roots from root ingrowth bags. Plant community composition was censused each year in early June. In the last 2 years of the study| subplots were clipped on 1 June or 1 July| and regrowth was harvested on 1 October. Volumetric soil water content of the 0-100 cm soil layer was determined using neutron scattering| and was generally higher in elevated CO2 plots than ambient. Peak aboveground biomass was greater on elevated CO2 plots than ambient CO2 plots with or without chambers during years with significant plant water stress. Above-ground regrowth biomass was greater under elevated CO2 than under ambient CO2 in a year with late-season water stress| but did not differ in a wetter year. Root ingrowth biomass was also greater in elevated CO2 plots than ambient CO2 plots when water stress occurred during the growing season. The basal cover and relative amount of warm-season perennial grasses (C4) in the stand changed little during the 8-year period| but basal cover and relative amount of cool-season perennial grasses (C3) in the stand declined in the elevated CO2 plots and in ambient CO2 plots with chambers. Forbs (C3) and members of the Cyperaceae (C3) increased in basal cover and relative amount in the stand at elevated compared to ambient CO2. Greater biomass production under elevated CO2 in C4-dominated grasslands may lead to a greater carbon sequestration by those ecosystems and reduce peak atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the future. 5016,1999,3,3,Biomass-Balance Table for evaluating bioenergy resources,Bioenergy is expected to become one of the key energy resources to cope with global warming and exhaustion of fossil fuel resources. Biomass is renewable and free from net CO2 emissions as long as it is maintained sustainably. There are several studies concerning bioenergy potential| but they are hardly comparable because of the complexity of the assumed parameters| which relate to food| timber and paper supply| forest management| etc. In this study| bioenergy (expressed in Joules) is divided into plantation bioenergy produced on land and bioenergy recovered from biomass residues in the processes of harvest| conversion and consumption for food| timber and paper. We propose a "Biomass Balance Table"| which shows systematically the flows of various biomass forms. The scheme of a Biomass-Balance Table is similar to that of an energy-balance table. The steps of the biomass processing (i.e. harvesting| conversion and consumption) are expressed in the column| and biomass forms are expressed in the row. Tables have been constructed for 10 regions in the world in 1990. The world has an existing energy potential from biomass residues of 88 EJ (i.e. 26% of 335 EJ of primary energy supply in 1990) and Japan has 2.02 EJ (10% of 19.52 EJ of primary energy supply in 1990). North America| the former USSR and eastern Europe| and Western Europe have large potentials of wood biomass residues and other Asian countries and the centrally-planned economies of Asia have large potentials food biomass residues. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4953,1999,3,3,Can solar cooking save the forests?,Cooking with the sun has become a potentially viable substitute for fuelwood in food preparation in much of the developing world. Fuelwood scarcity is a growing problem that has thus far been poorly addressed. Solar cooking is one possible solution but its acceptance has been limited partially due to cultural barriers| relatively high start-up costs| and a lack of continued support subsequent to introduction. One possible source of some funding for solar cookers may be the Clean Development Mechanism (Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocols) aimed at reducing carbon emissions to curtail the impact of global warming. Using Haiti as an example| CDM funding is shown to be promising but only a partial solution. With CDM as a possible source of at least seed capital| more ambitious solar cooking programs are feasible but their success will be a function of addressing cultural barriers and providing support for adaptation well beyond the introductory stage. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5018,1999,2,4,Carbon dioxide exchange in a high-arctic fen estimated by eddy covariance measurements and modelling,The high-arctic environment is an environment where the consequences of global warming may be significant. In this paper we report on findings on carbon dioxide and water vapour fluxes above a sedge-dominated fen at Zackenberg (74 degrees 28'N| 20 degrees 34' W) in The National Park of North and East Greenland. Eddy covariance measurements were initiated at the start of the growing season and terminated shortly before its end lasting 45 days. The net CO2 nux during daytime reaches a high of 10 mu mol m(-2)s(-1)| and around the summer solstice| net CO2 assimilation occurred at midnight| resulting in net carbon gain during the night. The measured carbon dioxide fluxes compare well to estimates based on the photosynthesis model by Collatz et al. (1991). The total growing-season net ecosystem CO2 exchange was estimated to be 96 g cm(-2) based on the carbon dioxide model and micrometeorological data. Finally| the combined CO2 assimilation and soil respiration models are used for examining the dependence of the carbon dioxide budget on temperature. The ecosystem is found to function optimally given the present temperature conditions whereas either an increase or a decrease in temperature would reduce the ecosystem CO2 accumulation. An increase in temperature by 5 degrees C would turn the ecosystem into a carbon dioxide source. 5109,1999,4,4,Carbon induced subsoil denitrification of (15)N-labelled nitrate in 1 m deep soil columns,Nitrate in soils is potentially a contaminant of groundwater and can also be denitrified to form nitrous oxide (N(2)O)| a global warming gas that is also involved with stratospheric ozone depletion. The objective of this work was to examine the fate of (15)N-labelled NO(3)(-) when it was injected into the subsoil (80 cm) in the presence of carbon. Gas fluxes from the soil surface and gas concentrations in the soil profile were monitored for 38 d. On average| after this time only 13% of the (15)N-labelled N was present as NO(3)(-) with immobilisation (54%)| entrapment in soil pore space (7%)| dissolution of N in soil water (2%)| gas fluxes from the soil column surface (N(2)O < 1%| N(2) 1.8%) and unaccounted for (15)N (20%) making up the remainder of the (15)N balance. As (15)N-labelled N gases diffused from the zone of denitrification towards the soil surface the ratio of N(2)O-N:(N(2)O-N + Na) decreased (range of 0.90 to 0.17). (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5106,1999,3,3,Carbon sequestration and conservation of tropical forests under uncertainty,Concern for global warming has focused attention on the rob of tropical forests in the reduction of ambient CO(2) levels and mitigation of climate change. Deforestation is a major land use change in the tropics| with forest resources undergoing degradation through the influence of logging and conversion to other uses. Land use change is a product of varied local and regional resource use policies. Management of forest resources is one such major temporal factor| influencing resource stability and the carbon pool. Under a given management policy| both the long period of forest growth| and the slow turnover and decay of the carbon pool| enhance the relevance of stand level management policies as cost-effective mechanisms mitigating climate change. Apart from regional level uncertainties like the nature of land use and the estimation of carbon storage in vegetation and soil| the carbon flux of tropical forests is greatly influenced by uncertainty in regenerative capacity of forests and in harvest and management policies. A case study from India is used to develop a transition matrix model of natural forest management| and to explore the economic implications of maintaining and expanding existing carbon sinks. The study further explores the significance of investments in additional carbon sink in plantation forests| given continued uncertainty in natural forest management. 4959,1999,3,4,Carbon storage after long-term grass establishment on degraded soils,Recent concern about global warming has led to attempts to estimate the effects of management on carbon sequestration in soil. The objective of this study is to determine the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) degraded by agricultural practices and the rate of carbon sequestration in soils after restoration of grass for various periods of time. The SOC contents of previously cultivated clay soils (Udic Haplusterts) in central Texas returned to grass 6| 26| and 60 years ago are compared with those of soils in continuous agriculture for more than 100 years and those of prairie soils that have never been tilled. Surface (0 to 5 cm) SOC concentration ranged from 4.44 to 5.95% In the prairie to 1.53 to 1.88% in the agricultural sites. Carbon concentration in restored grasslands was generally intermediate to that reported for the native prairie and agricultural sites. The SOC mass in the surface 120 cm of the agricultural soils was 25 to 43% less than that of native prairie sites. After the establishment of grasses| SOC mass in the grass sites was greater than at the agricultural sites. A linear relationship between the length of time in grass and the amount of SOC sequestered in the surface 60 cm Gt well for time periods from 6 to 60 years. The slope of this function provided an estimate of the carbon sequestration rate| in this case 447 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1)| At this rate| it would require nearly an additional century (98 years) for the 60-year grass site to reach a carbon pool equivalent to that of the prairie. 4914,1999,3,1,CFC and Halon replacements in the environment,Substitute fluorocarbons may have direct environmental impact| for trample as greenhouse gases| or indirect impacts through the products of their decomposition in the environment. The mechanisms of that atmospheric decomposition are reviewed here and shown to be well established now. The end products are halogen acids and trifluoroacetic acid| all of which pre-exist in the environment in quantities greater than are expected to arise from fluorocarbon use and emissions. Furthermore| the growth in use of fluorocarbon replacements has been shown to be far less than the fall in CFC and Halon production. Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) have replaced less than one third of CFCs and are| themselves| ozone depleting substances that will be phased out under the Montreal Protocol. The growth in hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) amounts to about 10% of the fall in CFCs. It is likely that the impact of new fluorocarbons on climate change will be a very small fraction of the total impact| which comes mainly from the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. 4946,1999,2,3,Changes in heat index associated with CO2-induced global warming,Changes in Heat Index (a combined measure of temperature and humidity) associated with global warming are evaluated based on the output from four extended integrations of the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. The four integrations are: a control with constant levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)| a second integration in which an estimate of the combined radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols over the period 1765-2065 is used to force the model| and a third (fourth) integration in which atmospheric CO2 increases at the rate of 1% per year to double (quadruple) its initial value| and is held constant thereafter. While the spatial patterns of the changes in Heat Index are largely determined by the changes in surface air temperature| increases in atmospheric moisture can substantially amplify the changes in Heat Index over regions which are warm and humid in the Control integration. The regions most prone to this effect include humid regions of the Tropics and summer hemisphere extra-tropics| including the southeastern United States| India| southeast Asia and northern Australia. 4913,1999,3,4,Chlorofluorocarbon to hydrofluoroalkane formulations: An industry perspective,The medications prescribed to treat asthma are provided in a range of delivery systems| designed to give patients a choice in how they take their inhaled medication. These include the mainstay of asthma therapy| the metered dose inhaler (MDI)| and the breath-operated inhalers. One of the major challenges that all the leading companies in the respiratory area have faced in recent years is the environmental effects of chlorofluorocarbons. The pharmaceutical industry recognized the need to reformulate MDI products containing chlorofluorocarbons| and a number of companies began to develop alternatives in the late 1980s| To help facilitate this change in products| an industry consortium was formed (International Pharmaceutical Aerosol Consortium)| and this has managed many of the overarching issues. After an extensive search was conducted the most suitable alternatives were the hydrofluoroalkanes| which do not contain chlorine| are ozone friendly| and have lower global-warming potentials than the chlorofluorocarbons that they are replacing| To date it is estimated that the industry has invested over $1.0 billion ($US) on global research and development efforts. The first countries to launch the nonchlorofluorocarbon MDIs hare been in Europe| and now salbutamol and 2 inhaled steroids are widely available across Europe in their nonchlorofluorocarbon form Clinical testing has been extensive| and patient acceptance of the new products has proved to be high| Maintaining the smooth progress of the global transition is important| and continued dialogue between all key stakeholders should ensure success in this area. 2237,1999,4,4,Clathrate eustasy: Methane hydrate melting as a mechanism for geologically rapid sea-level fall,Although submarine methane hydrates or clathrates have been highlighted as potential amplifiers of modern global climate change and associated glacio-eustatic sea-level rise| their potential role in sea-level fall has not been appreciated. Recent estimates of the total volume occupied by gas hydrates in marine sediments vary 20-fold| from 1.2 x 10(14) to 2.4 x 10(15) m(3). Using a specific volume change on melting of -21%| dissociation of the current global inventory of hydrate would result in a decrease of submarine hydrate volume of 2.4 x 10(13) to 5.0 x 10(14) m(3). Release of free gas bubbles present beneath hydrates would increase these volumes by 1.1-2.0 x 10(13) m(3). The combined effects of hydrate melting and subhydrate gas release would result conservatively in a global sea-level fall of 10-146 cm. Such a mechanism may offset some future sealevel rise associated with thermal expansion of the oceans. It could also explain anomalous sealevel drops during ice-free periods such as the early Eocene| the Cretaceous| and the Devonian. 5115,1999,3,2,Clean technology using cogeneration concepts for simultaneous production of electricity| steam| and industrial gases: A route to zero pollution discharge - A case study for enhanced oil recovery in Canada,Energy is the most critical factor for the growth of a nation's economy. However| its use has a major impact on the environment especially by discharging air pollutants into the atmosphere. In addition| energy production from fossil fuel| the world's most important fuel| is recently known to be the key contributor of CO2 (a major greenhouse gas) resulting in global warming problems. This article is an extension of our earlier research work to demonstrate how cogeneration concepts can be used to reduce production costs and simultaneously produce electricity| steam as well as industrial gases such as CO2. With cogeneration| there is very little air pollution discharged into the atmosphere. We discuss a case study of an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) application. 2261,1999,2,2,Climate and habitat availability determine 20th century changes in a butterfly's range margin,Evidence of anthropogenic global climate change is accumulating| but its potential consequences for insect distributions have received little attention. We use a 'climate response surface' model to investigate distribution changes at the northern margin of the speckled wood butterfly Para| ge aegeria. We relate its current European distribution to a combination of three bioclimatic variables. We document that P. aegeria has expanded its northern margin substantially since 1940| that changes in this species) distribution over the past 100 years are likely to have been due to climate change| and that I? aegeria will have the potential to shift its range margin substantially northwards under predicted future climate change. At current rates of expansion| this species could potentially colonize all newly available climatically suitable habitat in the UK over the nest 50 years or more. However| fragmentation of habitats can affect colonization| and Mle show that availability of habitat may be constraining range expansion of this species at its northern margin in the UK. These lag effects may be even more pronounced in less-mobile species inhabiting more fragmented landscapes| and highlight how habitat distribution will be crucial in predicting species' responses to future climate change. 5137,1999,2,4,Climate change and future hydroclimate for the Upper Crooked River| Oregon,Upper Crooked River drains a semiarid elevated lava plain supporting a mixed vegetation cover of juniper| sagebrush| and grass. The majority of basin farm income is derived from livestock grazing on non-irrigated public and private land. Average annual water balance surplus is a modest 75 mm. A watershed model run for 108 consecutive months defines present-clay hydroclimate as a basis for assessing changes related to global warming. Future watershed surplus is modeled assuming current land-use and grazing practices using monthly temperature and precipitation changes derived from a limited area model nested in a global circulation model. In the simulated warmer and wetter climate| peak surplus occurs three months earlier in January as an increased proportion of precipitation occurs as rain rather than snow Severe decreases in water availability to plants accompany elevated evapotranspiration in all months. The sensitivity of the watershed to evapotranspiration is attributable to the cool season concentration of rainfall and evapotranspiration increases that magnify moisture deficits and drought in the summer. Compared to present-day climate| modeled future hydroclimate indicates severely limited watershed moisture supplies requiring flexible resource management plans. 4985,1999,2,4,Climate change and sustainable water resources: placing the threat of global warming in perspective,Predicted climate change over the coming decades is likely to add measurable stress to water resources in many regions of the world| including some areas that are currently well endowed. The stresses are likely to involve changes in the frequency of extreme events as well as gradual changes in mean annual net resources. The paper analyses these predictions. It also attempts to place them in context| first| comparing their impact with other major barriers to sustainability| such as increasing demand| wastage| poor water resources assessment and international conflict| and| secondly| considering the limitations of current predictive techniques. 4895,1999,2,4,Climate change has affected the breeding date of tree swallows throughout North America,Increasing evidence suggests that climate change has affected the breeding and distribution of wildlife. If such changes are due to global warming| then we should expect to see large-scale effects. To explore for such effects on avian reproduction| we examined 3450 nest records of tree swallows from across North America. The egg-laying date in tree swallows advanced by up to nine days during 1959-1991. This advance in phenology was associated with increasing surface air temperatures at the time of breeding. Our analysis controlled for several potentially confounding variables such as latitude| longitude| breeding density and elevation. We conclude that tree swallows across North America are breeding earlier and that the most likely cause is a long-term increase in spring temperature. 4983,1999,2,4,Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines: water resources,The Philippines| like many of the world's poor countries| will be among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because of its limited resources. As shown by previous studies| occurrences of extreme climatic events like droughts and floods have serious negative implications for major water reservoirs in the country. A preliminary and limited assessment of the country's water resources was undertaken through the application of general circulation model (GCM) results and climate change scenarios that incorporate incremental changes in temperature and rainfall and the use of a hydrological model to simulate the future runoff-rainfall relationship. Results showed that changes in rainfall and temperature in the future will be critical to future inflow in the Angat reservoir and Lake Lanao| with rainfall variability having a greater impact than temperature variability. In the Angat reservoir| runoff is likely to decrease in the future and be insufficient to meet future demands for water. Lake Lanao is also expected to have a decrease in runoff in the future. With the expected vulnerability of the country's water resources to global warming| possible measures to cope with future problems facing the country's water resources are identified. 5005,1999,3,4,Climate change policy: quantifying uncertainties for damages and optimal carbon taxes,Controversy surrounds climate change policy analyses because of uncertainties in climatic effects| impacts| mitigation costs and their distributions. Here we address uncertainties in impacts| and provide a method for quantitative estimation of the policy implications of such uncertainties. To calculate an "optimal" control rate or carbon tax a climate-economy model can be used on estimates of climate damages resulting from warming scenarios and several other key assumptions. The dynamic integrated climate-economy (DICE) model| in its original specification? suggested that an efficient policy for slowing global warming would incorporate only a relatively modest amount of abatement of greenhouse gas emissions| via the mechanism of a small (about $5 per ton initially) carbon tax. Here| the DICE model is reformulated to reflect several alternate published estimates and opinions of the possible damages from climatic change. Our analyses show that incorporating most of these alternate damage estimates into DICE results in a significantly more aggressive optimal policy than that suggested by the original model using a single damage function. In addition| statistical distributions of these damage estimates are constructed and used in a probabilistic analysis of optimal carbon tax rates| resulting in mostly much larger (but occasionally smaller) carbon taxes than those of DICE using point values of damage estimates. In view of the large uncertainties in estimates of climate damages| a probabilistic formulation that links many of the structural and data uncertainties and thus acknowledges the wide range of "optimal" policies is essential to policy analysis| since point values or "best guesses" deny policy makers the opportunity to consider low probability| but policy-relevant| outliers. Our presentation is offered as a prototypical example of a method to represent such uncertainties explicitly in an integrated assessment. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2289,1999,4,2,Climate change scenarios for global impacts studies,We describe a set of global climate change scenarios that have been used in a series of studies investigating the global impacts of climate change on several environmental systems and resources - ecosystems| food security| water resources| malaria and coastal flooding. These scenarios derive from modelling experiments completed by the Hadley Centre over the last four years using successive versions of their coupled ocean-atmosphere global climate model. The scenarios benefit from ensemble simulations (made using HadCM2) and from an un-flux-corrected experiment (made using HadCM3)| but consider only the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The effects of associated changes in sulphate aerosol concentrations are not considered. The scenarios are presented for three future time periods - 30-year means centred on the 2020s| the 2050s and the 2080s - and are expressed with respect to the mean 1961-1990 climate. A global land observed climatology at 0.5 degrees latitude/longitude resolution is used to describe current climate. Other scenario variables - atmospheric CO(2) concentrations| global-mean sea-level rise and non-climatic assumptions relating to population and economy - are also provided. We discuss the limitations of the created scenarios and in particular draw attention to sources of uncertainty that we have not fully sampled. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2249,1999,2,3,Climate change scenarios for impact assessment in Cuba,Determining seasonal and regional patterns of climate change is in growing demand for the assessment of the potential impacts on climate-related economic activities| such as agriculture or water resource management. This paper presents the results of the work done to determine possible patterns of CO2-induced climate change in Cuba based on the IPCC's best estimate of climate sensitivity and using IS92a and KYOTOA1 emission scenarios. The climate change scenarios were prepared combining general circulation model (GCM) results and output from the MAGICC climate model. The results of this study show that the methodology and the GCMs selected provide a large range of regional climate change and guarantee that the climatic change scenarios developed can be applied to explore a wide spectrum of the potential climate changes in different environments and social sectors in Cuba. 5095,1999,4,2,Climate evolution: from the recent past to the future,The aim of this article is twofold. We first summarize our current scientific knowledge about the potential influence of human activities on climate. This review is largely based on the conclusions of the 1995 IPCC report (International Panel on Climate Change). An increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has been observed since 1750 (CH4 = 145 %; CO2 = 30 %; N2O = 15 %) and in the temperature of the Earth's surface since 1860 (between 0.3 and 0.6 degrees C). This report suggests a discernable human influence on climate and predicts significant global warming for the next century (1 to 3.5 degrees C) as a result of the anthropogenic increase of the greenhouse effect. We then show how studies of past climates have| over the last ten years| contributed to this problem by providing information relevant to the future of our climate. Important results concern the existence of a relationship between climate and concentrations of greenhouse gases for more than 200 000 years| the discovery of rapid climatic changes (similar to 10 degrees C in a few decades in Greenland) and the reconstruction of recent climate showing that the 20th century is the warmest since 1 400 AD. ((C) Academie des sciences / Elsevier| Paris). 5129,1999,4,4,Climate modelling: Achievements and prospects,The significant progress made with coupled (atmosphere-ocean) general-circulation models (CGCMs) over the past decade or so is discussed in the context of the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In their first report in 1990| most climate-change GCMs were atmospheric GCMs coupled to 'slab' ocean models and being used only to determine the 'equilibrium' climate response to specified increases in carbon dioxide. The wide range of estimates of their 'climate sensitivity' is discussed| especially in the context of the uncertainty introduced by model sensitivity to representations of cloud. The modelling focus then moved to transient-response| climate-change experiments. These and the related modelling problems are noted; as are the simultaneous growing awareness and improved quantification of a range of natural and human-induced radiative forcings. The consequent inclusion of this information in CGCMs to study the detection and attribution of climate change| leading to the IPCC statement in their 1995 report that 'the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate'| is also discussed. A significant modelling breakthrough since the 1995 report is the capability of a few CGCMs to produce stable and realistic climate (control) simulations without using artificial 'flux adjustments'. This is illustrated with results from such a model| the Hadley Centre HadCM3. In conclusion| a brief perspective is given of high-priority modelling developments and applications to be addressed over the next decade. 5039,1999,2,4,Climatic changes and infectious diseases: Malaria and tick-borne relapsing borreliosis.,Malaria and tick-borne borreliosis are two vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology in Africa has been affected by climatic changes observed since the early 1970's. In the case of Borrelia crocidurae relapsing fever; the persistence ofsub-Saharan drought has been associated with a spread of the tick vector Alectorobius sonrai which was previously restricted to the Sahara and the Sahel. Now the disease has a high incidence in the Sudan savanna of West Africa where if was previously absent. In the case of malaria| drought has significantly reduced the distribution| abundance| or infection rate of anopheline vectors in these areas. However; the decrease of malaria transmission has had no significant impact on morbidity and mortality because of the specific modalities of naturally acquired immunity to malaria. In parts of the world where malaria is unstable or has been eradicated| global worming cannot by itself increase or reintroduce malaria| since other factors play a much more important role in the epidemiology and control of malaria. However the marked climatic anomalies which are observed some years may locally contribute to the occurrence of epidemics| as has been observed in limited areas of Southern and Central America| Southern Asia and Eastern Africa in relation to El Nino Southern Oscillation. (C) 1999 Elsevier; Paris. 2230,1999,5,4,Climatically related millennial-scale fluctuations in strength of California margin oxygen-minimum zone during the past 60 k.y.,A strong oxygen-minimum zone (OMZ) currently exists along the California margin because of a combination of high surface-water productivity and poor intermediate-water ventilation. However| the strength of this OMZ may have been sensitive to late Quaternary ocean-circulation and productivity changes along the margin| Although sediment-lamination strength has been used to trace ocean-oxygenation changes in the past| oxygen levels on the open margin are not sufficiently low for laminations to form. In these regions| benthic foraminifera are highly sensitive monitors of OMZ strength| and their fossil assemblages can be used to reconstruct past fluctuations. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1017| off Point Conception| exhibit major and rapid faunal oscillations in response to late Quaternary millennial-scale climate change (Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles) on the open central California margin. These faunal oscillations can be correlated to and are apparently synchronous with those reported from Santa Barbara Basin. Together they represent major fluctuations in the strength of the OMZ which were intimately associated with global climate change-weakening| perhaps disappearing| during cool periods and strengthening during warm periods. These rapid| major OMZ strength fluctuations were apparently widespread on the Northeast Pacific margin and must have influenced the evolution of margin biota and altered biogeochemical cycles with potential feedbacks to global climate change. 4989,1999,2,4,CO(2) flux in Arctic and alpine dry tundra: Comparative field responses under ambient and experimentally warmed conditions,We compared growing season CO(2) flux patterns between botanically similar arctic and alpine dry tundra ecosystems in Alaska and Colorado under ambient and experimentally warmed conditions. Measurements were taken during the 1997 growing season| 3 yr after the warming treatments were begun. Under ambient weather conditions| arctic dry tundra at Toolik Lake| Alaska was a net source (4 g CO(2)-C m(-2)) of CO(2) to the atmosphere| while alpine dry tundra at Niwot Ridge| Colorado| was a net CO(2) sink (7 g CO(2)-C m(-2)) during the growing season. Experimental warming of arctic tundra by 1 to 3 degrees C| resulted in a sevenfold (32 g CO(2)-C m(-2)) increase in this ecosystem's carbon source activity. Similar warming in alpine tundra changed this ecosystem from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source of 8 g CO(2)-C m(-2) over the growing season. In the Arctic| increased CO(2) efflux with warming was largely the result of increased rates of ecosystem respiration throughout the entire growing season| while in the alpine ecosystem respiration increased only early in the growing season. Rates of photosynthesis were generally not affected by experimental warming at either site. These data suggest that global warming will accentuate the carbon source activity of dry tundra in the northern foothills of Alaska and will change the net CO(2) exchange of alpine dry tundra in the northern Rocky Mountains from a net CO(2) sink to a source. 4960,1999,3,4,CO2 emissions and the steel industry's available responses to the greenhouse effect,The Steel Industry has decreased its emissions of greenhouse gases by a factor of 3 in the last 30 years| However| the prospect of Global Warming| even if it is still a matter of controversy| makes it necessary to explore the issue further| Increasing steel recycling| i|e| the use of scrap| would be the most realistic near-term answer of the Steel Industry to a further decrease in CO2 emissions. In the long term| some interesting R&D paths are left open.
5074,1999,2,4,CO2 emissions from soil in response to climatic warming are overestimated - The decomposition of old soil organic matter is tolerant of temperature,The storage of organic carbon in soil is predicted to decrease with global warming because the decomposition of organic matter is expected to accelerate relative to the net primary production (NPP) of vegetation. This decrease would substantially increase the atmospheric CO2 concentration because soil contains twice as much C as the present atmosphere and the decomposed C from soil will be released to the atmosphere. These predictions of the decrease in soil C storage are| however| largely dependent on the implied assumption that the decomposition of all soil organic matter is as sensitive to temperature as is the decomposition of young litter. We used measurements of the amount and age of soil C and the decomposition of litter on temperature gradients and a simple model describing soil C dynamics to show that the decomposition of old soil organic matter is resistant to changes in temperature. Accordingly| in response to climatic warming| we estimate decomposition to accelerate significantly less than previously expected| and predict that the C storage of boreal forest soils will increase. 2294,1999,2,3,Coastline regression of the Romagna region| Italy| due to natural and anthropogenic land subsidence and sea level rise,The Romagna coastal area in the Northern Adriatic Sea has experienced in recent times continuous changes because of its precarious environment and low ground elevation above mean sea level (msl). Major processes that may influence the stability of the coast profile include land subsidence of both natural and anthropogenic origin and the msl rise caused by global climate change. According to the most accredited modeling predictions msl is expected to rise by almost 0.5 m over the next century because of the greenhouse effect. Natural land subsidence is the result of deep downward tectonic movement and consolidation of geologically recent deposits. It may be estimated in the range of 2-2.5 mm/yr in the Ravenna area and twice as much in the Po River delta. Anthropogenic land subsidence is primarily related to groundwater pumping from the upper fresh water aquifer system and gas production from Plio-Pleistocene reservoirs. Geodetic surveys from 1953 to 1990 provide documentary evidence of cumulative land settlement exceeding 0.8 m and 1.2 m at Marina di Ravenna and Cesenatico| respectively. In this study we estimate both natural and anthropogenic land subsidence for the years 2015| 2050| and 2100 with the aid of ad hoc finite element simulation models. The use of these predictions together with the expected msl rise shows that many present lowlands may be permanently submerged at the end of the next century. The extent of the flooded area of the Romagna coastal region can be as much as 690 and 910 km(2)| using optimistic and pessimistic land subsidence scenarios| respectively. A local detailed analysis indicates that the areas around the cities of Ravenna and Cesenatico may be seriously affected by sea water ingression while the city of Rimini is well protected because of its relatively high elevation above msl. 4970,1999,3,4,Comparison of rapeseed and mineral oils using Life-Cycle Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis,A combination of life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) was used to evaluate and compare the relative environmental impacts and socio-economic costs of several products| made from either rapeseed oil or mineral oil in the UK. The chainsaw bar oil case study is used to demonstrate the methodologies used and results obtained. Chainsaw bar oil is a total-loss oil| and has considerable potential for substitution of the conventional base oil (mineral oil) with rapeseed oil. Results are presented from LCA impact assessments of the mineral oil and rapeseed oil chainsaw lubricants Several scenarios were compared using different co-product allocation and alternative land-use assumptions. Global warming potential (GWP) impacts were lower for rapeseed chainsaw oil| in ail scenarios| than for the mineral oil product. Other environmental impacts illustrated that both assumptions (i.e. whether to examine the total or marginal impacts) and allocation can strongly influence conclusions. The most realistic scenario for rapeseed oil was considered to be 70% allocation of burdens to the oil| with winter wheat impacts subtracted from those of oilseed rape. With this scenario| ail environmental impacts considered for chainsaw lubricants were lower for rapeseed oil. Monetary valuation of impacts through CBA varied| depending on the valuation system used| but in general rapeseed oil chainsaw lubricant had lower costs than the mineral oil product. Allocating some of the environmental burdens of crop production and crushing to rapeseed meal| and consideration of marginal impacts relative to alternative land uses increased the apparent environmental benefits of rapeseed oil chainsaw lubricant. Combination of ICA and CBA will require further development but affords new opportunities for socio-economic interpretation of environmental aspects. 5078,1999,2,4,Consumption of atmospheric methane by soils: A process-based model,A process-based model for the consumption of atmospheric methane (CH(4)) by soils was developed to identify the most important factors affecting uptake rates and to determine whether the current uncertainties in the estimated size of the global soil sink might be reduced. Descriptions of diffusion and microbial oxidation processes| which together determine the CH(4) flux| were included. The results suggest that the global sink strength lies within the range 20-51 Tg yr(-1) CH(4)| with a preferred value of 38 Tg yr(-1) CH(4). Dry tropical ecosystems account for almost a third of this total. Here microbial activity rather than diffusion is limiting uptake. It is also in these areas that the impact of any intensification in agriculture will be the most pronounced| with a possible future reduction in uptake in excess of 3 Tg y(-1) CH(4). This is in contrast to the overall impact of global warming| which is expected to leave the size of the global soil sink relatively unchanged. 2221,1999,4,4,Continuous long-term measurements of soil-plant-atmosphere variables at a forest site,It is a major challenge in modem science to decrease the uncertainty in predictions of global climate change. One of the largest uncertainties in present-day global climate models resides with the understanding of processes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) system. Continuous| long-term data are needed in order to correctly quantify balances of water| energy and CO2 in this system and to correctly model it. It is the objective of this paper to demonstrate how a combined system of existing sensor| computer| and network technologies could be set up to provide continuous and reliable long-term SVAT-process data from a forested site under almost all environmental conditions. The Central Tower Site (CTS) system was set up in 1993-1994 in a 25 m high boreal forest growing on a highly heterogeneous till soil with a high content of stones and blocks. It has successfully monitored relevant states and fluxes in the system| such as atmospheric fluxes of momentum| heat| water vapour and CO2| atmospheric profiles of temperature| water vapour| CO2| short-and long-wave radiation| heat storage in soil and trees| sap-flow and a variety of ecophysiological properties| soil-water contents and tensions| and groundwater levels| rainfall and throughfall. System uptime has been more than 90% for most of its components during the first 5 years of operation. Results from the first 5 years of operation include e.g.| budgets for energy| water and CO2| information on important but rarely occurring events such as evaporation from snow-covered canopies| and reactions of the forest to extreme drought. The carbon budget shows that the forest may be a sink of carbon although it is still growing. The completeness of the data has made it possible to test the internal consistency of SVAT models. The pioneering set-up at the CTS has been adopted by a large number of SVAT-monitoring sites around the world. Questions concerning tower maintenance| long-term calibration plans| maintenance of sensors and data-collection system| and continuous development of the computer network to keep it up to date are| however| only partly of interest as a research project in itself. It is thus difficult to get it funded from usual research-funding agencies. The full value of data generated by the CTS system can best be appreciated after a decade or more of continuous operation. Main uses of the data would be to evaluate how SVAT models handle the natural variability of climate conditions| quantification of water. carbon and energy budgets during various weather conditions| rind development of new parameterisation schemes in global and regional climate models. :(C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
2222,1999,4,4,Continuous long-term measurements of soil-plant-atmosphere variables at an agricultural site,It is a major challenge in modem science to decrease the uncertainty in predictions of global climate change. One of the largest uncertainties in present-day global climate models resides with the understanding of processes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) system. Continuous| long-term data are needed to correctly quantify balances of water| energy and CO2 in this system and to correctly model them. It is the objective of this paper to demonstrate how a combined system of existing sensor| computer| and network technologies could be set up to provide continuous and reliable long-term SVAT-process data from an agricultural site under almost all weather conditions. A long-term climate-monitoring system within the framework of NOPEX was set up in 1993-1994 at the Marsta Meteorological Observatory (MMO). It is situated in a flat agricultural area where annual crops are cultivated on a heavy clay soil. It has successfully monitored relevant states and fluxes in the system| such as atmospheric fluxes of momentum| heat| water vapour and CO2| atmospheric profiles of wind speed| direction| and temperature| short- and long-wave radiation| soil temperature| soil-water contents| groundwater levels| and rainfall and snow depth. System uptime has been more than 90% for most of its components during the first 5 years of operation. Results from the first 5 years of operation has proven MMO to be an ideal site for intercomparison and intercalibration of radiometers and fast turbulence sensors| and for evaluation of other sensors| e.g.| rain gauges. The long time series of radiation data have been valuable to establish numerical limits for a set of quality-control flags. MMO has served as a boundary-layer research station and results from NOPEX campaigns show how the dimensionless wind gradient depends not only on the traditional stability parameter z/L but also on the height of the convective boundary layer. Measurements at the observatory grounds and a neighbouring field show a considerable variability in surface properties| which must be accounted for when assessing budgets of heat and other scalars. Questions concerning long-term calibration plans| maintenance of sensors and data-collection system| and continuous development of the computer network to keep it up to date are| however| only partly of interest as a research project in itself. It is thus difficult to get it funded from usual research-funding agencies. The full value of data generated by the: MMO system can best be appreciated after a decade or more of continuous operation. Main uses of the data would be to evaluate how SVAT models handle the natural variability of climate conditions| quantification of water| carbon and energy budgets during various weather conditions| and development of new parameterisation schemes in global and regional climate models. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5131,1999,2,4,Covariability of aspects of north American climate with global sea surface temperatures on interannual to interdecadal timescales,Rotated canonical correlation analysis between seasonal- and longer-mean global SSTs and either U.S. surface temperatures or 700-hPa heights in the Pacific-North America region have led to decompositions into three distinct signals. One of these represents the interannual variability of ENSO and a second is related to the North Atlantic oscillation and exhibits considerable variability on interdecadal timescales. In contrast the temporal behavior of the third| which is referred to here as the global signal| is mostly characterized by a steady trend since the late 1960s. The robustness of this time series to variations in the analyses| as well as the robustness of the spatial structure of the SST pattern accompanying it| suggests that the decomposition represents a successful separation of the climate signal from the climate noise. When viewed in the context of other recent work| the global signal cannot be discounted as a "fingerprint" of global warming. Finally| calculations that exploit ensemble mean output from prescribed-SST GCM runs reveal notable systematic errors in the simulation of the features of all three signals. 2271,1999,2,4,Dam nation: A geographic census of American dams and their large-scale hydrologic impacts,Newly available data indicate that darns fragment the fluvial system of the continental United States and that their impact on river discharge is several times greater than impacts deemed likely as a result of global climate change. The 75|000 dams in the continental United States are capable of storing a volume of water almost equaling one year's mean runoff| but there is considerable geographic variation in potential surface water impacts. In some western mountain and plains regions| darns can store more than 3 year's runoff| while in the Northeast and Northwest| storage is as little as 25% of the annual runoff. Dams partition watersheds; the drainage area per dam varies from 44 km(2) (17 miles(2)) per dam in New England to 811 km(2) (313 miles(2)) per dam in the Lower Colorado basin. Storage volumes| indicators of general hydrologic effects of darns| range from 26|200 m(3) km(-2) (55 acre-feet mile(-2)) in the Great Basin to 345|000 m(3) km(-2) (725 acre-feet mile-2) in the South Atlantic region. The greatest river flow impacts occur in the Great Plains| Rocky Mountains| and the arid Southwest| where storage is up to 3.8 times the mean annual runoff. The nation's dams store 5000 m(3) (4 acre-feet) of water per person. Water resource regions have experienced individualized histories of cumulative increases in reservoir storage (and thus of downstream hydrologic and ecologic impacts)| but the most rapid increases in storage occurred between the late 1950s and the late 1970s. Since 1980| increases in storage have been relatively minor. 4927,1999,2,4,Deaths from heat-stroke in Japan: 1968-1994,Global warming is increasingly recognized as a threat to the survival of human beings| because it could cause a serious increase in the occurrence of diseases due to environmental heat during intermittent hot weather. To assess the direct impact of extremely hot weather on human health| we investigated heal-related deaths in Japan from 1968 through 1994| analyzing the data to determine the distribution of the deaths by age and their correlation to the incidence of hot days in summer. Vital Statistics of Japan| published by the Ministry of Health and Welfare of Japan| was the source of the heat-related mortality data employed in this study Meteorological data were obtained from the District Meteorological Observatories in Tokyo and Osaka| the two largest cities in Japan. Heat-related deaths were most prone to occur on days with a peak daily temperature above 38 degrees C| and the incidence of these deaths showed an exponential dependence on the number of hot days. Thus| even a small rise in atmospheric temperature may lead to a considerable increase in heat-related mortality| indicating the importance of combating global warming. Furthermore| half (50.1%) of the above-noted deaths occurred in children (4 years and under) and the elderly (70 years and over) irrespective of gender| indicating the vulnerability of these specific age groups to heat. Since a warmer climate is predicted in the future| the incidence of heat waves will increase| and more comprehensive measures| both medical and social| should be adopted for children of 4 years and younger the elderly to prevent heat-related deaths in these age groups. 5054,1999,2,4,Demography of the Yellowstone grizzly bears,We undertook a demographic analysis of the Yellowstone grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) to identify critical environmental factors controlling grizzly bear vital rates| and thereby to help evaluate the effectiveness of past management and to identify future conservation issues. We concluded that| within the limits of uncertainty implied by the available data and our methods of data analysis| the size of the Yellowstone grizzly bear population changed little from 1975 to 1995. We found that grizzly bear mortality rates are about double in years when the whitebark pine crop fails than in mast years| and that the population probably declines when the crop fails and increases in mast years. Our model suggests that natural variation in whitebark pine crop size over the last two decades explains more of the perceived fluctuations in Yellowstone grizzly population size than do other variables. Our analysis used demographic data from 202 radio-telemetered bears followed between 1975 and 1992 and accounted for whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) crop failures during 1993-1995. We used a maximum likelihood method to estimate demographic parameters and used the Akaike Information Criteria to judge the significance of various independent variables. We identified no independent variables correlated with grizzly bear fecundity. In order of importance| we found that grizzly bear mortality rates are correlated with season| whitebark pine crop size (mast vs. nonmast year)| sex| management-trapping status (never management-trapped vs. mangement-trapped once or more)| and age. The mortality rate of bears that were management-trapped at least once was almost double that of bears that were never management-trapped| implying a source/sink (i.e.| never management-trapped/management-trapped) structure. The rate at which bears move between the source and sink| estimated as the management-trapping rate (h)| is critical to estimating the finite rate of increase| <(lambda)over cap>. We quantified h by estimating the rate at which bears that have never been management-trapped are management-trapped for the first time. It differed across seasons| was higher in nonmast than mast years| and varied with age. We calculate that <(lambda)over cap> = 1.00 from 1975 to 1983 (four mast and five nonmast years) and 1.02 from 1984 to 1995 (seven mast and five nonmast years). Overall| we find that <(lambda)over cap> = 1.01 +/- 0.04 (mean +/- 1 SE) from 1975 to 1995. Our models suggest that future management should concentrate on the threats to white-bark pine| such as those posed by white pine blister rust| global warming| and fire suppression. As is currently widely recognized by Yellowstone land managers| our model also suggests that future management must compensate for the increased grizzly bear mortality that in likely to be caused by an increasing number of humans in Yellowstone. 4930,1999,2,4,Denitrification from fescue pastures in the southeastern USA fertilized with broiler litter,Many aspects of the denitrification process in pasture ecosystems remain poorly investigated| especially as affected by application of animal manures. Denitrification can be| however| a major pathway of N loss from soil| decreasing efficiency of N fertilizers| as well as contributing to global warming and ozone depletion. We quantified N loss via denitrification from tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb.) pastures following fertilization with broiler litter. Study sites were located in the Coastal Plain (Alabama)| Piedmont (Georgia)| and Cumberland Plateau (Tennessee) Major Land Resource Areas of the southeast USA. Litter was applied to supply 70 kg of available N hs-L based on equations developed by the USDA and the USEPA. Measurements were taken every 2 wk during the course of 2 yr (1995-1996 and 1996-1997) using an in-situ acetylene-inhibition technique. Denitrification flux was highly variable| ranging from -20 to 2500 mg N gas m(-2) h(-1). Total losses of N gas were all <6 kg ha(-1) during 150 d after application| representing a loss of <5% of total N applied. Losses from treated plots were not significantly; higher than those from control plots. Denitrification rates at these sites were not predictable by any one factor| but seemed to respond only to combinations of various factors such as soil temperature| soil NO(3) concentration| and soil|vater content. Our results indicate that risk of N loss and atmospheric pollution due to denitrification from soils in the southeastern USA is not significantly increased by application of broiler litter at appropriate rates. 4925,1999,2,3,Detectability of summer dryness caused by greenhouse warming,This study investigates the temporal and spatial variation of soil moisture associated with global warming as simulated by long-term integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model conducted earlier. Starting from year 1765| integrations of the coupled model for 300 years were performed for three scenarios: increasing greenhouse gases only| increasing sulfate-aerosol loading only and the combination of both radiative forcings. The integration with the combined radiative forcings reproduces approximately the observed increases of global mean surface air temperature during the 20th century. Analysis of this integration indicates that both summer dryness and winter wetness occur in middle-to-high latitudes of North America and southern Europe. These features were identified in earlier studies. However| in the southern part of North America where the percentage reduction of soil moisture during summer is quite large| soil moisture is decreased for nearly the entire annual cycle in response to greenhouse warming. A similar observation applies to other semi-arid regions in subtropical to middle latitudes such as central Asia and the area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. On the other hand| annual mean runoff is greatly increased in high latitudes because of increased poleward transport of moisture in the warmer model atmosphere. An analysis of the central North American and southern European regions indicates that the time when the change of soil moisture exceeds one standard deviation about the control integration occurs considerably later than that of surface air temperature for a given experiment because the ratio of forced change to natural variability is much smaller for soil moisture compared with temperature. The corresponding lag time for runoff change is even greater than that of either precipitation or soil moisture for the same reason. Also according to the above criterion| the inclusion of the effect of sulfate aerosols in the greenhouse warming experiment delays the noticeable change of soil moisture by several decades. It appears that observed surface air temperature is a better indicator of greenhouse warming than hydrologic quantities such as precipitation| runoff and soil moisture. Therefore| we are unlikely to notice definitive CO2-induced continental summer dryness until several decades into the 21st century. 4998,1999,2,3,Detecting the nonstationary response of ENSO to greenhouse warming,On the basis of the latest greenhouse warming experiment performed with the Max-Planck Institut coupled atmosphere/isopycnal ocean model (ECHAM4/OPYC) it is shown that not only the climate mean but also the statistics of higher-order statistical moments respond sensitively to greenhouse warming. In particular the Fl Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle obtains more energy| and a tendency toward cold events can be observed. These statistical changes are superimposed on an overall warming trend. It is suggested that this information can be used in order to refine climate change detection via the optimal fingerprinting strategy. An optimal spectral fingerprint is developed on the basis of linear perturbation theory of wavelet variances. In order to elucidate the potential of higher-order statistical moments in the climate change detection context the optimal spectral fingerprint technique is applied to the ECHAM4/OPYC greenhouse warming simulation. The results provide a rough estimate of the timescale over which human-caused changes in the statistics of ENSO can be expected to exceed the level of natural variability. These results reveal in particular that recent observed changes of ENSO variability are consistent with the null hypothesis of natural climate variability. Furthermore| an information theoretical approach is adopted to investigate possible influences of global warming on ENSO predictability. 4897,1999,2,4,Development of a new damage function model for power plants: Methodology and applications,Recent models have estimated the environmental impacts of power plants| but differences in assumptions and analytical methodologies have led to diverging findings. In this paper| we present a new damage function model that synthesizes previous efforts and refines components that have been associated with variations in impact estimates. Our model focuses on end-use emissions and quantifies the direct human health impacts of criteria air pollutants. To compare our model to previous efforts and to evaluate potential policy applications| we assess the impacts of an oil and natural gas-fueled cogeneration power plant in Boston| MA. Impacts under baseline assumptions are estimated to be $0.007/kWh of electricity| $0.23/klb of steam| and S0.004/ton-h of chilled water (representing 2-9% of the market value of outputs). Impacts are largely related to ozone (48%) and particulate matter (42%). Addition of upstream emissions and nonpublic health impacts increases externalities by as much as 50%. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the importance of plant siting| meteorological conditions| epidemiological assumptions| a nd the monetary value placed on premature mortality as well as the potential influence of global warming. Comparative analyses demonstrate that our model provides reasonable impact estimates and would therefore be applicable in a broad range of policy settings. 5033,1999,3,4,Development of a semi-quantitative pre-LCA tool,This paper describes the development of a semi-quantitative pre-LCA (life-cycle assessment) tool for assessing the environmental impacts of the production of a printer. This tool provides a quick-and-easy means of assessing the environmental impacts of a complex product| where a full LCA evaluation of the complex product would often require extensive calculations and the analysis is very time-consuming and places a heavy burden on the designer. The tool allows a designer to easily compute a total environmental impact value for each of the various alternative designs. The pre-LCA tool computes an environmental impact value by considering factors such as airborne and waterborne emissions| the recyclability potential| waste disposal| the global warming factor| the energy content of raw materials| the divertible plastic waste potential| etc. The analytical hierarchy comparison method is used for the designers to indicate the relative importance of these factors with respect to their designs. Environmental values for the various factors are calculated from graphs that have been derived based on extensive interviews with engineers involved in the production process| as well as from literature research. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. 4978,1999,3,3,Discounting the future - the cost of global warming,This essay begins by suggesting that although the ideas of Hegel appear more mystical and less practical than those of Adam Smith| both philosophies are nevertheless dependent on metaphysical assumptions. Smith's philosophical outlook finds its modern reflection in the notion of commensurability| the idea that social realities| amongst other things| can be indexed by a unitary measure of value. Economic cost-benefit analysis takes commensurability to its logical extreme by claiming that| for instance| the question whether to construct another London airport can be decided by applying it strict commercial analysis| attributing costs and prices to the whole range of environmental and human factors (but what value to place on a Norman church located in the path of the proposed runway?). A particularly intractable aspect of cost-benefit analysis is that| since any large investment project will almost certainly create benefits for some people and disbenefits for others| the analysis must include invidious interpersonal comparisons of utility - and while it might be equitable for those who benefit from such a project to compensate those who are disadvantaged by it| this in practice rarely happens. Finally| global warming due to the emission of greenhouse gases is examined| and it is shown how cost-benefit analysis applied to this situation turns out to be an even more complicated and an even less satisfactory approach. In conclusion it is suggested that| despite the insouciance of economists (which contrasts markedly with the anxieties of the climatologists and earth scientists)| the costs of our present rate of consumption of fossil fuels are bound to become enormous. 5036,1999,4,4,Dissolved organic carbon and nutrients as regulators of lake ecosystems: Resurrection of a more integrated paradigm,The primary interpretive paradigm used to study lakes is their trophic status. Oligotrophic lakes have low nutrient loading and low productivity| while eutrophic lakes have high nutrients and high productivity. The strong empirical relationship between nutrient loading and productivity is a Valuable tool for teaching| for research| and for management of lakes. In order to incorporate the variety of other known anthropogenic impacts on lakes| however| lake characterization needs to extend beyond the nutrient-productivity paradigm. For example| acid precipitation| heavy metal and toxic organic contaminants| increases in UV radiation| and global warming are all recognized threats to lake ecosystems. One of the key characteristics of lakes that determines how they respond to disturbances such as these is their concentration of colored dissolved organic carbon (CDOC). Here we argue that a paradigm that includes CDOC (using the absorption coefficient at 320 nm as a proxy) as well as nutrients will be useful in predicting and understanding the response of lake ecosystems to multiple stressors. We propose to resurrect the CDOC axis that was proposed by investigators earlier this century and to extend it by adding some operational definitions to permit placing some of the major lake types on the axes in a way that will help us to better understand the structure| function| and response to disturbance of lake ecosystems that are subject to natural and anthropogenic environmental changes at the local| regional| and global scales. Data from a few diverse lakes and a successional sequence in Glacier Bay| Alaska| are used to illustrate the potential utility of the 2-axis model in separating lake types. 5058,1999,2,4,Distribution and habitat use of the feral black rat (Rattus rattus) on subantarctic Macquarie Island,Macquarie Island is the southernmost limit to the distribution of the black rat Rattus rattus. The species was introduced to this subantarctic island by sealers during the 19th century. The rats are now widespread and abundant in coastal areas all around the island. The distribution of rat populations is divided into discrete units by the availability of suitable habitat which| in turn| is a consequence of the rugged topography| particularly on the west coast. Rats are found from almost sea level to 200-250 m a.s.l. and up to 1 km inland. They have adapted successfully to the rigorous climate and firmly occupy a habitat niche in an environment where food is plentiful| predators are few and interspecific competition minimal. The principal habitat| tall Poa foliosa tussock grassland| provides year-round shelter and food. Rats dig burrows in the peaty stools of the tussock plants and construct nesting chambers at the base of the dense leaf canopy. Predictably| this provides a warmer and more stable thermal environment than that experienced outside under the tussock canopy where the runs are located. Tussock grasslands are spreading under the influence of management control measures directed at the introduced European rabbit and possibly global warming. Management programmes are also directed towards the eradication of feral cats. In response| rat populations may be expected to expand in numbers and to occupy new territories. Without control this may| in the long term| have serious consequences for the island's avifauna| particularly the smaller| burrow-nesting species. 5037,1999,2,4,Disturbances of temperature-depth profiles due to surface climate change and subsurface water flow: 1. An effect of linear increase in surface temperature caused by global warming and urbanization in the Tokyo metropolitan area| Japan,A series of type curves is presented for evaluating vertical groundwater fluxes under the condition of a linear increase in surface temperature. The depths of minimum groundwater temperature in the temperature-depth profiles indicate the magnitude of the downward groundwater flux. The type curve method has been applied to the subsurface thermal regime observed in Tokyo metropolitan area| Japan| to estimate the vertical groundwater fluxes under the condition of surface warming caused by global warming and urbanization. The groundwater fluxes obtained from the type curves and the depths of minimum groundwater temperature agree well with the values obtained from the other studies in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The inversion due to the surface warming could be a good tracer to detect the groundwater flow system. 5062,1999,2,3,Do open-top chambers overestimate the effects of rising CO2 on plants? An analysis using spring wheat,The microclimate in facilities for studying effects of elevated CO2 on crops differs from ambient conditions. Open-top chambers (OTCs) increase temperature by 1-3 degrees C. If temperature and CO2 interact in their effect on crops| this would limit the value of OTC experiments. Furthermore| interaction of CO2 and temperature deserves study because increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration are expected to cause global warming. This paper describes two experiments in which a recently developed cooling system for OTCs was used to analyse the effects of temperature on photosynthesis| growth and yield of spring wheat (Triticum nestivum L.| cv. Minaret). Two levels of CO2 were used (350 and 700 ppm)| and two levels of temperature| with cooled OTCs being 1.6-2.4 degrees C colder than noncooled OTCs. Photosynthetic rates were increased by elevated CO2| but no effect of temperature was found. Cross-switching CO2 concentrations as well as determination of A-Ci curves showed that plant photosynthetic capacity after anthesis acclimated to elevated CO2. The acclimation may be related to the effects of CO2 on tissue composition: elevated CO2 decreased leaf nitrogen concentrations and increased sugar content. Calculations of the seasonal mean crop light-use efficiency (LUE) were consistent with the photosynthesis data in that CO2 increased LUE by 20% on average whereas temperature had no effect. Both elevating CO2 and cooling increased grain yield| by an average of 11% and 23%| respectively. CO2 and temperature stimulated yield via different mechanisms: CO2 increased photosynthetic rate| but decreased crop light interception capacity (LAI)| whereas cooling increased grain yield by increasing LAI and extending the growing season with 10 days. The effects of CO2 and temperature were not additive: the CO2 effect was about doubled in the noncooled open-top chambers. In most cases| effects on yield were mediated through increased grain density rather than increased individual grain weights. The higher growth response to elevated CO2 in noncooled vs. cooled OTCs shows that a cooling system may remove a bias towards overestimating crop growth response to CO2 in open-top chambers. 5101,1999,3,4,Dynamic externalities: Comparing conditions for Hopf bifurcation under laissez-faire and planning,Consider an economy described by two states. The first state describes a private stock subject to a firm's (or a consumer's) control| while the second state captures market interactions and is exogenous data to the individual firm. Considering rational expectations| a market equilibrium can be derived. This set-up is typical| in particular for the recently investigated new endogenous growth models. In contrast to the market outcome| planning attempts to internalise this externality. In both cases| the policies - either the optimal intertemporal policy of competitive firms exposed to this externality| or the social optimum - are characterised by a two-dimensional plane. Thus| complex solutions in particular limit cycles are possible. This paper compares the conditions of stability and| in particular| the conditions for limit cycles under these two different institutional set-ups| when the externality is or is not properly internalised. This comparison is first theoretical and then applied to a deliberately simple economic example: firms accumulate a capital stock (e.g.| sewage treatment| energy saving technologies) involving convex investment costs and this stock lowers emissions (or kinds of waste) that add to a stock of pollution (e.g. global warming| pollution of water and soil| etc.). 2223,1999,2,4,Dynamics of a toxic cyanobacterial bloom (Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii) in a shallow reservoir in the semi-arid region of northeast Brazil,The species composition and the seasonal succession of phytoplankton were analyzed in a eutrophic drinking water reservoir located in the semi-arid region of northeast Brazil. Investigations were based on bimonthly or monthly sampling over 2 yr (1997 to 1998) conducted at 1 representative station with 2 sampled depths (0.5 and 5 m near the bottom). Limnological parameters (temperature| pH| dissolved oxygen| conductivity| light| dissolved inorganic nutrients) were simultaneously measured to determine the possible factors affecting the phytoplankton composition. We determined 30 taxa during the survey which were numerically dominated by the class Chlorophyceae. However| both in terms of abundance and biomass| Cyanobacteria dominated the phytoplankton community with Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Wolsz.) Seenayya et Subba Raju. This species can represent biomass close to 96-100% of total phytoplankton biomass| with values reaching 70 mg l(-1) (fresh weight) between April and November 1998. Over the survey| the filaments of C. raciborskii were coiled (average of 97%) with a mean proportion of 12.3% of terminal heterocytes. The species toxicity was determined from bioassay analysis and the presence of neurotoxins was revealed during the bloom. By March 1998| chlorophyll concentration reached 135 mu g l(-1) at the surface level| inducing a sharp decrease of the euphotic zone depth. Favorable environmental conditions were observed for the bloom with high temperatures| high pH| low N/P ratio| and absence of efficient predators. The nutrient context seemed to play a role in the cyanobacterial bloom despite the absence of external nutrient supply. However| annual rain deficit and lack of water renewal in 1998 linked to the 1997 EI Nino consequences seem to be the major factors responsible for both hypereutrophic conditions and cyanobacterial blooms in the reservoir studied. Thus| global climate change can influence phytoplankton population dynamics in continental waters| as demonstrated frequently in oceanic ecosystems. 2277,1999,5,4,Early-Holocene aridity in tropical northern Australia,Thermoluminescence ages from a longitudinal dunefield in tropical northern Australia suggest that complete dune activation occurred here either continuously or sporadically between approximately 8.2 ka and 5.9 ka. This period| in Australia| is normally ascribed to one of increasingly warm and wet conditions towards the Holocene Climatic Optimum. However| elsewhere| this time (similar to 8 ka) coincides with a brief period of global climate change recognized in O-18 records From Antarctica| methane records of the Greenland Summit ice cores| changes to deep-sea benthic foraminferal composition and atmospheric C-14 variations. Tn tropical Africa two distinct phases of aridity have been dated at approximately 8 ka and 6 ka. The coincidence of aeolian reactivation episodes in this north Australian dunefield with brief phases of early-Holocene climate change elsewhere suggests possible global climatic teleconnections at this time. 4896,1999,4,2,Earth's future climate,The enhanced greenhouse effect. The Earth's surface temperature is slowly rising due to human activities| which are releasing heat-trapping gases| notably carbon dioxide and methane. into the atmosphere. By 2100 this temperature rise is expected to reach 2 +/- 1 degrees C| other climatic influences remaining constant. This will be the fastest rate of climate change the Earth has experienced since the start of modern civilization 10 000 years ago. (Figure from Pringle (1988)| used with permission of Hodder and Stoughton Limited.) Climate change occurs on time-scales ranging from annual changes associated with El Nino. through decadal changes| to multidecadal trends linked to global warming. It affects us all in our daily lives| impacts the performance of much of industry| and leads to billions of pounds of damage worldwide each year. In many countries the general public is becoming concerned as press reports| personal experience and anecdotal information all point to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events linked to climate change. Many opinions have been expressed on the subject from the doomladen to the dismissive. This paper aims to state clearly the current scientific position on cBmate change| and to provide informed scientific projections for Earth's climate into the next millennium. This will help decision makers| managers of weather risk| and all with an interest in our future climate. 2282,1999,2,4,Ecological and socioeconomic impacts of 1998 coral mortality in the Indian Ocean: An ENSO impact and a warning of future change?,The year 1998| was the warmest year since the start of temperature recordings some 150 years ago. Similarly| the 1990s have been the warmest decade recorded. In addition| 1998 saw the strongest El Nino ever recorded. As a consequence of this| very high water temperatures were observed in many parts of the oceans| particularly in the tropical Indian Ocean| often with temperatures of 3 degrees to 5 degrees C above normal. Many corals in this region bleached and subsequently died| probably due to the high water temperatures in combination with meteorological and climatic factors. Massive mortality occurred on the reefs of Sri Lanka| Maldives| India| Kenya| Tanzania| and Seychelles with mortalities of up to 90% in many shallow areas. Reefs in other parts of the Indian Ocean| or in waters below 20 m| coral mortality was typically 50%. Hence| coral death during 1998 was unprecedented in severity. The secondary socioeconomic effects of coral bleaching for coastal communities of the Indian Ocean are likely to be long lasting and severe. In addition to potential decreases in fish stocks and negative effects on tourism| erosion may become an acute problem| particularly in the Maldives and Seychelles. If the observed global trends in temperature rises continue| there will be an increased probability of a recurrence of the phenomenon observed in 1998 on the coral reefs of the Indian Ocean| as well as in other parts of the tropical oceans in coming years. Coral reefs of the Indian Ocean may prove to be an important signal of the potential effects of global climate change| and we should heed that warning. 4908,1999,4,4,Ecological basis of Alpine meadow ecosystem management in Tibet: Haibei Alpine Meadow Ecosystem Research Station,Alpine meadow and shrub are the main pasture types on the Tibetan Plateau| and they cover about 35% of the total land area. In order to understand the structural and functional aspects of the alpine ecosystem and to promote a sustainable animal production system| the Haibei Alpine Meadow Research Station was established in 1976. A series of intensive studies on ecosystem structure and function| including the energy flow and nutrient cycling of the ecosystem| were the main tasks during the first 10 years. Meanwhile| studies with 5 different grazing intensities on both summer and winter pasture have been conducted. In the early years of the 1990s| the research station started to focus its research work on global warming| biodiversity and sustainable animal production systems in pastoral areas. Various methods for improving degraded pasturelands have been developed in the region. 2302,1999,4,2,Econometric analysis of global climate change,This paper reports on research that applies econometric time series methods to the analysis of global climate change. The aim of this research was to test hypotheses concerning the causes of the historically observed rise in global temperatures. Longer term applications include quantification of the contribution of different forcing variables to historic warming and use of the model as a module in integrated assessment. Research to date has comprised three stages. In the first stage we used the concept of Granger causality and differences between the temperature record in the northern and southern hemispheres to investigate the causes of temperature increase. In the second stage we tested various global change time series for the presence of stochastic trends. We found that most series contain a stochastic trend with the greenhouse gas series containing I(2) stochastic trends. In the third stage we developed a structural time series to investigate some of the hypotheses suggested by the earlier stages and further tested for the presence of an I(2) trend in hemispheric temperature series. We found that the two temperature series share a common I(2) stochastic trend that may have its source in radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases. There is a second non-stationary component that appears only in the northern hemisphere and appears to be related to radiative forcing due to anthropogenic sulphur emissions. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5056,1999,5,4,Effect of Permo-Carboniferous climate on illite-smectite| Haushi Group| Sultanate of Oman,The Late Westphalian to Artinskian Haushi Group in the Sultanate of Oman consists of the glaciogenic Al Khlata Formation and the Gharif Formation which contains marginal marine| coastal plain| and fluvial sediments. The sequence was deposited during a global-warming event following the Permo-Carboniferous glaciation of Gondwana. Because of a varied subsidence history| these sediments range from the surface in thr SE to almost 5000 m in the NW of the basin. Mixed-layer illite-smectite (I-S) is an important constituent of the <2 mu m size fraction of sandstone and shale samples in both formations at all depths. Different starting compositions lead to three distinct trends of illite layers in I-S versus temperature for different sedimentary environments and paleoclimatic conditions. The starting compositions of I-S at the surface range from an ordered I-S in the Al Khlata Formation to smectite-rich in the Upper+Middle Gharif members. Physical| chemical and environmental factors were investigated as causes for the different starting compositions of T-S. Both formations share an identical burial history| paragenesis| thermal evolution| and source of detrital material. They differ only in environmental conditions during sedimentation. Thus| the variation in starting composition of I-S appears to be best explained by distinct weathering conditions during sedimentation of the three units. Ln particular. the expected low intensity of chemical weathering during glaciogenic conditions is marked by the presence of higher amounts of unstable volcanic and sedimentary rock fragments in the Al Khlata Formation. 4980,1999,3,4,Effect of satellite bubbles on dynamics of gas absorption from a CO2 bubble into a downward-flowing liquid,The dynamic process of gas absorption from a CO2 bubble into a liquid is examined in the presence of satellite bubbles. The bubble under consideration is held stationary| except its jittering| by the liquid flowing downward. The mass transfer rate is determined by monitoring the rate of reduction in the equivalent bubble diameter during the initial absorption process. It is found that the interaction with the satellite bubbles generally hampers the dissolution of the primary bubble. The extent of reduction in the dissolution rate increases with the net contacting time during the interaction. When the secondary bubbles interact with the primary bubble mainly outside of its wake| however| the dissolution tends to be enhanced due to induced turbulence in the surrounding liquid flow. A simple theoretical model is developed to simulate the observed results aii well as the basic features prevailing in a recently proposed scheme| called the GLAD system| for shallow injection of CO2 gas into seawater. 2279,1999,2,3,Effect of temperature on humus respiration rate and nitrogen mineralization: Implications for global climate change,Respiration and nitrogen mineralization rates of humus samples from 7 Scots pine stands located along a climatic transect across the European continent from the Pyrenees (42 degrees 40') to northern Sweden (66 degrees 08') were measured for 14 weeks under laboratory conditions at temperatures from 5 degrees C to 25 degrees C. The average Q(10) values for the respiration rate ranged from about 1.0 at the highest temperature to more than 5 at 10 degrees C to 15 degrees C in the northernmost samples. In samples from more northern sites| respiration rates remained approximately constant during the whole incubation period; in the southern end of the transect| rates decreased over time. Respiration rate was positively correlated with incubation temperature| soil pH and C:N ratio| and negatively with soil total N. Regressions using all these variables explained approximately 71% of the total variability in the respiration rate. There was no clear relation between the nitrogen mineralization rate and incubation temperature. Below 15 degrees C the N-mineralization rate did not respond to increasing temperature; tit higher temperatures| significant increases were found for samples from some sites. A regression model including incubation temperature| pH| N-tot and C:N explained 73% of the total variability in N mineralization. The estimated increase in annual soil respiration rates due to predicted global warming at the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere ranged from approximately 0.07 x 10(15) to 0.13 x 10(15) g CO2 at 2 degrees C and 4 degrees C temperature increase scenarios| respectively. Both values are greater than the current annual net carbon storage in northern forests| suggesting a switch of these ecosystems from net sinks to net sources of carbon with global warming. 4942,1999,4,3,Effective thermal conduction model for estimating global warming,This paper presents a simple way to approximate the dependence of the global mean air temperature at Earth's surface on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. It treats the atmosphere as a blanket| the effective thermal conductivity of which is a decreasing function of the amount of CO2 present| and does not involve the details of energy transport. The only data required are the CO2 concentrations at the middle of the nineteenth and the end of the twentieth centuries| and the shift in temperature that has occurred over that time. This elementary| phenomenological energy-balance approach is well suited for undergraduate physics courses to illustrate thermal conduction and radiation| by way of the very interesting and critically important example of greenhouse warming of Earth. (C) 1999 American Association of Physics Teachers. 4955,1999,2,3,Effects of climate change and nitrogen deposition on the carbon sequestration of a forest ecosystem in the boreal zone,Global warming and nitrogen deposition are expected to modify the carbon sequestration of boreal forests| causing feedback to atmospheric CO2 and climate. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of climate change and various N deposition rates on C sequestration of a forest ecosystem. The study uses a gap-type forest model for a managed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stand in conditions representing southern Finland. Model computations indicated that| for both current and changed (+4 degrees C and +10% in precipitation) climatic conditions| increased levels of N deposition from 6 to 12 kg.ha(-1) per year increased C uptake by 4-6.5%. Total C stock (vegetation| litter| and soil organic matter) was 11% higher for current level of N deposition than without deposition. Changed climate resulted in a 10% higher C stock of the vegetation but 30% lower C stock in the forest soil. Consequently| the total C stock in forests was decreased because of the greater decline in soil C stock. The combined effects of climate change and N deposition decreased the average C stock of forest (over a 100-year rotation period) with annual deposition rates under 12 kg N.ha(-1) but slightly increased C stock with deposition of 24 kg N.ha(-1). 2224,1999,2,4,Effects of enhanced UV-B radiation on a weedy forb (Plantago lanceolata) and its interactions with a generalist and specialist herbivore,Assessments of potential impacts of global climate change often focus exclusively on plants; however| as the base of most food webs| plants generally experience abiotic stresses concomitantly with biotic stresses. Longleaf plantain| Plantago lanceolata L.| is a cosmopolitan temperate perennial weed that experiences a wide range of environmental conditions throughout its range. We examined the impacts of elevated levels of exposure to shortwave (UV-B) radiation on this plant| on two herbivores associated with this plant| and on the plant-herbivore interaction. Plantains were grown at 6 and 12 kJ m(-2) d(-1) BE300 UV-B radiation and concentrations of iridoid glycosides (aucubin and catalpol)| verbascosides| and nitrogen were measured. In terms of plant impacts| we found that iridoid glycoside concentrations were unchanged by elevated UV-B radiation| whereas| in one experiment| the concentration of verbascosides in young leaves and levels of nitrogen in old leaves increased under elevated UV-B radiation. Variation in plant chemistry due to leaf age and maternal family was greater than variation due to UV-B exposure. When caterpillars were fed excised leaves from plants grown under elevated UV-B| growth and survivorship of the specialist herbivore| Precis coenia Hbn. (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)| were unaltered and growth of the generalist herbivore| Trichoplusia ni (Hbn.) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)| was accelerated. When the caterpillars were reared on potted plants at high and low levels of UV-B radiation| growth and survivorship of P. coenia were unchanged while growth of T. ni was significantly depressed by elevated UV-B. Elevated UV-B altered allocation patterns of above-ground biomass in these plants; masses of crowns and reproductive tissue were reduced. UV-B levels| however| did not affect distribution of damage to foliage inflicted by either species. In two additional experiments with artificial diet| designed to test the direct effect of UV-B radiation on caterpillars| growth and survivorship of P. coenia were unaltered while survivorship of T. ni was significantly depressed when caterpillars were exposed to elevated UV-B radiation. These studies collectively demonstrate that higher trophic level impacts of UV-B-induced changes in plants depend on the identity of the herbivore and its degree of adaptation not only to variation in hostplant quality but also variation in its light environment. 4935,1999,2,4,Effects of global warming on nematode diversity in a Swedish tundra soil - a soil transplantation experiment,The implications of global warming on nematode populations were studied in a soil transplantation experiment. Blocks of peat from an ombrotrophic mire at Abisko| northern Sweden| were transplanted to nine warmer sites in Sweden in June 1996. The changes in nematode abundance and species composition were followed by monthly samplings from July to December 1996 with a final sampling in June 1997. In all sites except the most northern the total nematode numbers increased during the study period. However| especially at the three northern-most sites the composition of the nematode fauna changed very little. Most species from the mire survived in all transplants and the number of immigrating species was low. The most clearcut effects on faunal composition were seen in blocks transferred to open sites in central and southern Sweden. This was also indicated by the Maturity index (sensu Bongers) and Renkonen numbers (comparing similarity in fauna structure between source sire and transplantation sites). These parameters had the lowest values in blocks placed in the exposed sites where the greatest fluctations in temperature and moisture occurred. One conclusion of the study is that a climatic change has no rapid influence on the composition of the nematode fauna: soil structure and vegetation have a stronger influence. If the soil structure and vegetation start to change this will certainly also influence the nematode fauna. Upon warming above certain temperature thresholds| expected changes would result in an increased rate of mineralization followed by higher abundance of fungal and bacterial feeders belonging to the Secernentea. 4988,1999,2,4,Effects of temperature and natural disturbance on growth| reproduction| and population density in the alpine annual hemiparasite Euphrasia frigida,The effects of temperature and "natural disturbance" on growth| seed production| and population density in the facultative hemiparasitic annual Euphrasia frigida (Scrophulariaceae) were examined in the middle alpine zone at Finse| southwest Norway. Experimentally elevated temperature increased growth and seed production significantly. Higher temperatures resulted in a small decrease in population densities during three seasons. The degree of "natural disturbance" did not influence growth and seed production| but population density was highest at intermediate disturbance levels. Thus| while temperature influenced the performance of E. frigida| disturbance affected the population dynamics. The effects of temperature on growth and reproduction may also be indirect on hemiparasites| through improved conditions for the host plants under elevated temperatures. It is hypothesized that the predicted global warming will result in increased seed output from E. frigida plants in the middle alpine zone. Population densities| however are likely to decrease under elevated temperatures| due to lower disturbance levels by frost heave and increased vegetation cover. 5010,1999,2,4,Effects of temperature on stem nematode (Ditylenchus dipsaci) infestation of white clover (Trifolium repens) swards,Development of stem nematode (Ditylenchus dipsaci) infestations of white clover (Trifolium repens) in artificially established swards and transplanted turfs was monitored at field sites with different mean daily temperatures. In artificial swards the level of nematode infestation was inversely related to mean daily temperature. In transplanted turfs| nematodes caused a 46% reduction in white clover density over an 18-month period; the level of damage was not significantly affected by mean daily temperature although the proportion of clover stolons infested was higher at colder temperatures. Reductions in infestation levels at higher temperatures are probably the result of reduced survival in soil and the upper lethal temperature for nematodes being exceeded more frequently under warmer conditions. 5083,1999,2,4,Effects of water temperature on protein synthesis and protein growth in juvenile Atlantic wolffish (Anarhichas lupus),The effects of water temperature (5| 8| 11| and 14 degrees C) on the fractional rate (percent per day) of protein consumption (k(r)) and on white muscle and whole-body fractional rates of protein synthesis (k(s))| protein growth (k(g))| and growth efficiency (PPV| growth/consumption; k(g)/k(s)| growth/synthesis) of juvenile Atlantic wolffish (Anarhichas lupus) (initial body weight 26 g) were studied. Rates of protein consumption and white muscle and whole-body protein synthesis increased in a linear fashion between 5 and 14 degrees C. In contrast| the relationships between temperature and white muscle and whole-body protein growth| protein growth efficiency (PPV) and protein synthesis retention efficiency (k(g)/k(s)) were parabolic. The results indicated that the optimum water temperatures for growth (T-opt.G) and growth efficiency (T-opt.GE) were 10-11 and 9-10 degrees C| respectively The maximum white muscle and whole-body protein growth rates recorded at T-opt.G were 0.9 and 0.7 %.day(-1)| respectively. At T-opt.GE| the maximum white muscle and whole-body PPV values were 28 and 34%| respectively| and k(g)/k(s) values were 92 and 51%| respectively. The growth performance data for juvenile Atlantic wolffish in comparison with published data for salmonids (rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)| Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)) at 9-11 degrees C further highlight its suitability as an alternative species for cold-water aquaculture in northern Europe and Atlantic Canada. 5127,1999,3,4,Electricity generating renewables and global warming emissions,It is sometimes assumed that renewable technologies which emit carbon dioxide (CO2) in their operation do not offset CO2 emissions as much as technologies such as wind energy| PV or hydro. Firstly this paper examines the CO2 savings achieved by electricity generated from renewables as a result of their being substituted for fossil fuel-fired generation. These savings are then balanced against the CO2 emissions arising from the manufacture of the power plant and in the case of some technologies| the CO2 produced in operation. The end result for all technologies is a net CO2 saving.
Some renewable energy technologies also reduce methane emissions. These methane emission savings are converted into CO2 equivalents to give a measure of the net global warming reduction effect of generating electricity from these sources. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Because of their understanding of climate changes during the geological past geoscientists can make important contributions to the evaluation of the current climate scenario. The climate factors that are actually decisive| such as changes in solar energy| which have substantially characterized the temperatures prevailing on the earth and continue to determine them| cannot be controlled by man. Impacts introduced by anthropogenic influences| such as the input of climatically relevant gases into the atmosphere| represent the only possibility of intervention even though the effects of countermeasures on the climate are bound to remain slight. In view of the relatively minor effects that anthropogenic carbon dioxide has had| and will presumably continue to have| on the climate scenario it must be wondered whether the considerable effort expended on countermeasures is always justifiable from an economic point of view. In spite of this| the consumption of fossil fuels| and thus the emission of carbon dioxide| must be kept as low as possible for reasons of environmental protection and the preservation of raze materials. The BGR (Federal Institute for Geosciences and Raw Materials) suggests that these findings should be incorporated in the arguments put forward by policy makers when decisions on industrial development and global warming prevention are made| so that the dialogue between economic and ecological interests can yield sensible and environmentally compatible solutions at reasonable cost. The inclusion of| and even closer cooperation between| neo-climatology| which focuses on the more recent past| and palaeo-climate research| which applies geoscience to reconstruct climatological data| is creating an enhanced basis for future climate forecasts. Sudden and severe climate changes| the reasons for which have not been determined to date| are known to have occurred within one decade in prehistoric times. The justified question about forecasting short- and medium-term climate changes cannot yet be answered by reliable model predictions. In the long run| however| astronomic and geoscientific findings suggest a temperature drop over the next 10 000 years.
2266,1999,2,4,Global and local implications of biotechnology and climate change for future food supplies,The development of improved technology for agricultural production and its diffusion to farmers is a process requiring investment and time. A large number of studies of this process have been undertaken. The findings of these studies have been incorporated into a quantitative policy model projecting supplies of commodities (in terms of area and crop yields)| equilibrium prices| and international trade volumes to the year 2020| These projections show that a "global food crisis|" as would be manifested in high commodity prices| is unlikely to occur. The same projections show| however| that in many countries|"local food crisis|" as manifested in low agricultural incomes and associated low food consumption in the presence of low food prices| will occur. Simulations show that delays in the diffusion of modern biotechnology research capabilities to developing countries will exacerbate local food crises. Similarly| global climate change will also exacerbate these crises| accentuating the importance of bringing strengthened research capabilities to developing countries. 2292,1999,2,4,Global and local threats to coral reef functioning and existence: review and predictions,Factors causing global degradation of coral reefs are examined briefly as a basis for predicting the likely consequences of increases in these factors. The earlier consensus was that widespread but localized damage from natural factors such as storms| and direct anthropogenic effects such as increased sedimentation| pollution and exploitation| posed the largest immediate threat to coral reefs. Now truly global factors associated with accelerating Global Climate Change are either damaging coral reefs or have the potential to inflict greater damage in the immediate future: e.g. increases in coral bleaching and mortality| and reductions in coral calcification due to changes in sea-water chemistry with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. Rises in sea level will probably disrupt human communities and their cultures by making coral cays uninhabitable| whereas coral reefs will sustain minimal damage from the rise in sea level. The short-term (decades) prognosis is indeed grim| with major reductions almost certain in the extent and biodiversity of coral reefs| and severe disruptions to cultures and economies dependent on reef resources. The long-term (centuries to millennia) prognosis is more encouraging because coral reefs have remarkable resilience to severe disruption and will probably show this resilience in the future when climate changes either stabilize or reverse. 2304,1999,2,3,Global change: state of the science,Only recently| within a few decades| have we realized that humanity significantly influences the global environment. In the early 1980s| atmospheric measurements confirmed basic concepts developed a decade earlier. These basic concepts showed that human activities were affecting the ozone layer. Later measurements and theoretical analyses have clearly connected observed changes in ozone to human-related increases of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. As a result of prompt international policy agreements| the combined abundances of ozone-depleting compounds peaked in 1994 and ozone is already beginning a slow path to recovery. A much more difficult problem confronting humanity is the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on global climate. The processes that connect greenhouse gas emissions to climate are very complex. This complexity has limited our ability to make a definitive projection of future climate change. Nevertheless| the range of projected climate change shows that global warming has the potential to severely impact human welfare and our planet as a whole. This paper evaluates the state of the scientific understanding of the global change issues| their potential impacts| and the relationships of scientific understanding to policy considerations. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2245,1999,2,2,Global climate change,Climate| the statistical description of weather including the probabilities for anomalies| changes continuously| since both the interaction among the climate system components (atmosphere| ocean| biosphere| cryosphere| and lithosphere) and the irradiance of the sun vary on all timescales up to billions of years. On timescales which are of most interest for mankind| i.e. up to centuries| major factors causing climate variability are: changing composition of the atmosphere; spectral solar irradiance variations; systematic changes of ocean-atmosphere-land interaction| if resulting in major changes of ocean circulation; volcanic eruptions injecting mass into the low latitude stratosphere (>20 km height); and land cover change modifying the surface energy budget. Two of these influencing factors are now largely anthropogenic| namely changing atmospheric conditions and land cover change. Thus| the climate discussion has become to a large extent one about anthropogenic influence. At different periods| different influencing factors have been more important or dominant. Since the complex interactions are only partly understood| it is difficult to attribute observed climate parameter changes or trends to particular causes. In this brief status report on global climate change| present knowledge is reviewed| mainly based on the second full assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2248,1999,5,4,Global climate change,Most of the last 100|000 years or longer has been characterized by large| abrupt| regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions| New| high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by "band jumps" between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities. 2255,1999,4,4,Global climate change and accuracy of prediction of species' geographical ranges: establishment success of introduced ladybirds (Coccinellidae| Chilocorus spp.) worldwide,Aim Predictions of how the geographical ranges of species change implicitly assume that range can be determined without invoking climate change. The aim here was to determine how accurate predictions of range change might be before entertaining global climatic change. Location Worldwide. Methods All the documented global biological control translocations of ladybirds (Coccinellidae: Chilocorus spp.) were analysed with the ecoclimatic program| CLIMEX. This program determines species distributions in relation to climate| and can be used to express the favourableness of different localities for a species. CLIMEX is also a useful exploratory tool for determining the likelihood of establishment of species introduced from one area to another. Results Predictive models were developed based on the likelihood of establishment of fifteen Chilocorus spp. relative to their physiological characteristics and climatic tolerances. This likelihood was compared with actual establishment with a resultant range of 0% accuracy to 100% accuracy. Only four (26.7%) species climatic tolerances could the predicted with 100% certainty. The general lack of accurate prediction was because climate is not always the overriding feature determining whether a species will establish or not. Other determinants| such as localized response to microclimate| phenology| host type and availability| presence of natural enemies and hibernation sites play a varying role over and above climate in determining whether a species will establish at a new locality. Main conclusions This study shows that even in the absence of climate change| range cannot always be determined| which means that most predictions of range change with climate change are likely to be wrong. 2235,1999,2,2,Global climate change| rice productivity and methane emissions: comparison of simulated and experimental results,Irrigated rice production is a major food source for a large portion of the world's population| and a major anthropogenic source of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4). Potential impacts of global climate change [elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and/or elevated temperature] on rice can be predicted with simulation models| but experiments are necessary to determine how well these models mimic the responses of the field crop. This paper compares grain yield| biomass| and methane emissions from experiments at the international Rice Research Institute (IRRI) at Los Banos| the Philippines| with potential responses based on simulations using the ORYZA1 process model and the climate data from those experiments. Yield and biomass were compared for the 1995 and 1996 dry seasons (DS) and the 1994 wet season (WS). Emissions of CH4 from rice fields were evaluated for the 1995 WS and 1996 DS| Simulated and experimental responses (adjusted for effects of the open-top chambers on plant growth) differed with climate change scenario| response parameter| and season Under current climate conditions (ambient CO2 and ambient temperature)| simulated grain yield was 14% lower than the adjusted experimental grain yield in the 1996 DS| but was 17 and 37% higher than experimental grain yield in the 1995 DS and 1994 WS| respectively. With current climate| simulations underestimated experimental aboveground| belowground| and total biomass. The simulated CH4 emissions were the same as the experimental emissions| assuming CH4 emissions were 2.9% of the simulated total biomass carbon. With elevated CO7 and ambient temperature| simulations predicted greater increases (compared with current climate) in grain yield| aboveground biomass| and total biomass| but generally smaller increases in belowground biomass and CH4 emissions than the significant (at p < 0.05) increases that were found experimentally. With ambient CO2 and elevated temperature| both simulations and experiments generally showed either no change or a decrease in grain yield and biomass| but none of the responses in the experiments wen statistically significant. Simulated ambient CO2 and elevated temperature resulted in a smaller decrease in CH4 emissions than the significant decrease found in the experiments. For both elevated CO2 and elevated temperature| simulated grain yield increased in all three seasons| whereas there were no significant effects on experimental grain yield. The simulations predicted smaller increases in belowground biomass and CH4 emissions with elevated CO2 and elevated temperature than the significant increases in the experiments. To better correspond to experimental results| this study suggested that current simulation models could be improved in terms of effects of temperature on grain yield and use of belowground biomass to estimate CH4 emissions. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2268,1999,2,4,Global climate change: Why US insurers care,The number of natural catastrophes in this decade is four times greater than in the 1960s; economic losses are eight times greater; and insured losses are 15 times greater. The insurance industry's financial interest is inter-dependent with climate and weather. Natural events drive the demand for insurance coverage and can threaten the viability of an insurer if it is over-exposed in high risk areas. Early in the 1990s| the industry began to recognize that historical data were potentially misleading with respect to future natural catastrophe exposure. The U. S. insurance industry is pursuing a variety of new approaches including: the use of catastrophe computer models to integrate the natural knowledge about extreme events taken from the sciences into the actuarial sciences. The evaluation of building codes and building code enforcement in every community in the country enhanced its support for hazard mitigation. 4996,1999,3,3,Global CO2 recycling - novel materials and prospect for prevention of global warming and abundant energy supply,CO2 emissions which induce global warming| increase with the growth of the economic activity. It is| therefore| impossible to decrease emissions only by energy savings and by improvements of the energy efficiency. Global CO2 recycling can solve this problem and supply abundant renewable energy. Global CO2 recycling consists of three districts: (i) in deserts| all necessary electricities are generated by solar cells; (ii) on coasts close to the deserts| the electricity is used for production of H-2 by seawater electrolysis| H-2 is converted to CH4 by the reaction with CO2 and liquefied CH4 is transported to energy consuming districts; (iii) at energy consuming district| after CH4 is used as a fuel| CO2 is recovered| liquefied and transported to the coasts close to the deserts. A CO2 recycling plant for substantiation of our idea has been built on the roof of our Institute (IMR) in 1996| using key materials tailored by us. The key materials necessary for global CO2 recycling are the anode and cathode for seawater electrolysis and the catalyst for CO2 methanation. Since the quantities of CO2 to be converted far exceed an industrial level| the system must be very simple and the rate of conversion must be very fast. These requirements are satisfied in our global CO2 recycling system. When global CO2 recycling is conducted on a large scale| the energies and costs required to form liquefied CH4 in our global CO2 recycling system are almost the same as those for production of LNG from natural gas wells. A project for field experimenting the global CO2 recycling using pilot plants in Egypt has been planned in cooperation with Egyptian scientists| engineers and industries. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. 4990,1999,3,4,Global passenger travel: implications for carbon dioxide emissions,Humans spend| on average| a constant fraction of their time and expenditure on travel. These and a few other constraints allow a new model for projecting regional and world travel| which we use to develop a scenario for carbon emissions from passenger transport. Globally| carbon emissions rise from 0.8 GtC in 1990 to 2.7 GtC in 2050. In every industrialized region aircraft and high-speed trains become the dominant mode; unable to satisfy the rising demand for mobility within a fixed travel time budget| automobile travel declines by 2050. Passenger transport carbon emissions stabilize by 2020 without any further policy intervention. But in developing countries automobile travel is still rising and becomes the dominant source of carbon dioxide from passenger transport. Fear of global warming may require stabilization of these emissions by mid-century| We show that without some action to accelerate an improvement in energy efficiency starting in the next decade| the goal of stabilization is a technically impossible task| unless zero-carbon technologies become available. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4999,1999,2,4,Global warming - Organisms feel the heat,Feeling the heat: Studies in different regions of the world reveal the biological effects of climate change global warming. 4936,1999,4,4,Global warming - Solar variability and the Earth's climate,Lockwood et al.1 recently presented some intriguing new evidence of solar variability| but Parker's accompanying News and Views article2 gave an exaggerated and misleading picture of the potential effects on terrestrial climate. This picture is at variance with both the evidence3 and a public statement by Lockwood himself| reported in ref. 4. 5049,1999,2,4,Global warming and El Nino: a review of the current knowledge.,The observations of temperature from meteorological networks| as independent observations or indicators (paleoclimatic| snow cover; sea-ice and glaciers extensions| sea level)| tend towards a surface global warming| which has been more intense during the last decades. Several studies converge on the attribution of part of the most recent warming to human activities. The El Nino event (and its companion La Nina) of climate variability| induces climate anomalies which can be distributed all over the globe. The forecasting of these events| several season in advance| became foreseeable a few years ago. These forecasts| as climate change predictions| can be used as input to impact studies on the occurrence and extension of infectious diseases. It appears important that the corresponding methodologies account for the uncertainties of the climatic forecasts and predictions. (C) 1999 Elsevier| Paris. 4906,1999,2,4,Global warming and malaria expansion.,Since 1985| global warming has become a subject of concern for WHO. A meeting in Geneva in 1990 has stressed the risk of a malaria increase using mathematical models without field confirmed studies. Based on our field experience in East Africa and Madagascar| it appears that malaria increase is mainly dependent on the following factors: cancellation of vector control programs| rainfall abnormally heavy| changes of ground occupation and surface water| human exposure due to professional activities| and possibly temperature rise but in combination with other factors. On the contrary| malaria decrease was observed following the occurrence of vector control programs based on indoor house spraying using remnant effect insecticide| drought such as in Sahel| improvement of housing. Malaria is an increasing public health problem reinforced by the double resistance of parasites to anti-malarial drugs and mosquitoes to some insecticides. However| this trend could be inverted in unstable malaria regions| such as mountainous areas| by setting up appropriate vector control programs which implies a better knowledge of vector distribution and ecology. 5052,1999,2,3,Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks an future atmospheric CO2,A low-order physical-biogeochemical climate model was used to project atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming for scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation weakens in all global warming simulations and collapses at high levels of carbon dioxide. Projected changes in the marine carbon cycle have a modest impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Compared with the control| atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 4 percent at year 2100 and 20 percent at year 2500. The reduction in ocean carbon uptake can be mainly explained by sea surface warming. The projected changes of the marine biological cycle compensate the reduction in downward mixing of anthropogenic carbon| except when the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapses. 4899,1999,2,2,Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent,Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 45 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations| and both trends are much Larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From Long-term control runs of climate models| it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability| assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature| is Less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and Less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century. 5028,1999,3,4,Global warming and nuclear power,The problems of pollution| global warming and renewable energy sources are not going to go away. Governments need to act with urgency if they are to produce a long-term energy policy. This paper looks at the current energy situation| and how this would project into the future without the instigation of radical changes. It concludes that nuclear is the best option available for averting a growing energy| pollution and global warming crisis. 5066,1999,2,4,Global warming and the performance of drugs used to treat parasitic and other diseases,Drug therapy for the endocrine system is implemented to replace a hormone deficiency or to prevent or reduce the formation or effects of excess hormone. Treatment of endocrine disorders covers diseases of the pituitary| adrenal| parathyroid| and thyroid glands as well as the endocrine pancreas. This article focuses on new therapies currently available for specific diseases. Administration of trilostane for treatment of hyperadrenocorticism and use of insulin glargine| protamine zinc insulin (PZI)| and porcine Lente insulin for diabetes mellitus are discussed. In addition| transdermal methimazole therapy for treatment of feline hyperthyroidism and administration of progestins for pituitary dwarfism are considered.
4938,1999,2,4,Global warming may have slowed down the deep conveyor belt of a marginal sea of the northwestern Pacific: Japan Sea,Weakening of the abyssal circulation (conveyor belt) in the Japan Sea during the 20th century is deduced from the decreasing trend of bottom dissolved oxygen (O-2). This trend indicates a shortened O-2 supply| caused by too inactive conveyor belt to compensate for biological O-2 consumption at the bottom of the sea. Recent climatic changes during the winter season in the northern Japan Sea may play a significant role in prohibiting the formation of surface seawater dense enough to sink to the bottom. It is predicted that the Japan Sea bottom water will become anoxic within a few hundred years| as it was in the last glacial maximum. 5001,1999,4,4,Global warming potential of biogenic methane,The source of carbon in biogenic methane comes from the active carbon pool. Transformation of carbon into methane| through biogenic cycling of carbon implies that the global warming (GW) contributed by biogenic methane inherits the GW of CO|. For a precise and realistic assessment of GWP of biogenic methane and its' contribution to GW| the instantaneous radiative forcing of CO| should be subtracted from the instantaneous radiative forcing of biogenic methane. The correction suggested on this account will decrease the GWP of biogenic methane by 5%. The proposed correction is significant| since 80% of the global emission of methane involve biospheric carbon belonging to the active carbon pool. 5113,1999,3,4,Global warming: discounting is not the issue| but substitutability is,The cost-benefit study of Nordhaus (1994) is representative for the neoclassical approach towards global warming. Nordhaus found that no substantial emission cuts are warranted. Most of his critics have concentrated on the issue of discounting and demanded that a lower discount rate should be applied. These criticisms first miss the point and second lead to ethically dubious| inconsistent conclusions and inefficient policy choices. They miss the point because the real problem of Nordhaus's methodology is his implicit underlying assumption of perfect substitutability between natural and other forms of capital. Given the validity of this assumption| lowering the rate of discount is inconsistent with current savings behaviour| is ethically dubious because future generations will be much richer than the current one anyway| and is inefficient because scarce financial resources are channelled into emissions abatement that exhibits rates of return far inferior to alternative public investments. Any call for aggressive emission abatement must therefore directly attack the perfect substitutability assumption of neoclassical economics. The real disagreement is about whether consumption growth can compensate for environmental degradation caused by global warming. Discounting is not the issue| but substitutability is. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5100,1999,2,4,Grassland vegetation changes and nocturnal global warming,Global minimum temperatures (T-MIN) are increasing faster than maximum temperatures| but the ecological consequences of this are Largely unexplored. Long-term data sets from the shortgrass steppe were used to identify correlations between T-MIN and several vegetation variables. This ecosystem is potentially sensitive to increases in T-MIN. Most notably| increased spring T-MIN was correlated with decreased net primary production by the dominant C-4 grass (Bouteloua gracilis) and with increased abundance and production by exotic and native C-3 forbs. Reductions in B. gracilis may make this system more vulnerable to invasion by exotic species and less tolerant of drought and grazing. 4957,1999,3,3,Greenhouse-gas emissions from biofuel combustion in Asia,An inventory of biofuel combustion is used to develop estimates of the emissions of carbon-containing greenhouse gases (CO2| CO| CH4| and NMHC) in Asian countries. It is estimated that biofuels contributed 573 Tg-C (teragrams of carbon; 1 Tg = 10(12) g) in 1990| about 28% of the total carbon emissions from energy use in Asia. China (259 Tg-C) and India (187 Tg-C) were the largest emitting countries. The majority of the emissions| 504 Tg-C| were in the form of CO2; however| emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases were significant: 57 Tg-C as CO| 6.4 Tg-C as CH4| and 5.9 Tg-C as NMHC. Because of the high rates of incomplete combustion in typical biofuel stoves and cookers and the high global warming potentials (GWP) of the products of incomplete combustion (PICs)| biofuels comprise an even larger share of energy-related emissions when measured in terms of total GWP (in CO2 equivalents): 38% over a 20-year time horizon and 31% over a 100-year time horizon. Even when the biofuel is assumed to be harvested on a completely sustainable basis tall CO2 emissions reabsorbed in the following growing season)| PIC emissions from biofuel combustion account for 4.5% of the total carbon emissions and 23% of CO2 equivalents on a short-term (20-year) GWP basis. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5075,1999,2,4,Hantavirus-induced acute renal failure,Recently hantavirus-infection and acute renal failure has become more important in almost all countries of Middle- and Northern Europe (nephropathia epidemica). In this part of Europe the course of the disease is commonly mild as compared to hantavirus-infection in South-East Asia and the Balkan. Recently a new subtype of hantavirus-infection with acute pulmonary syndrome has been documented in the United States| a disease with acute pulmonary distress and high mortality. Intensive investigations of nephropathia epidemica in Europe has also shown that pulmonary infiltrates are more common than noted in the past. The distribution of the virus is dependent on the rodent population (vector) and may change with global warming since rodent population may progressively increase. In Argentina a person-to-person transmission of the hantavirus subtype (Andes) was documented recently and may influence the management of the hantavirus-infected patient in the future. In summary one should always be cautious in regard to hantavirus-infection when young patients with exposure to rodents (outdoor activities) present with high fever| thrombocytopenia and severe lumbalgia. Hantavirus-serology is today available in almost all laboratories and antibody-detection is most reliable by recombinant antigen. 5070,1999,2,4,Holocene sea-level record on Funafuti and potential impact of global warming on central Pacific atolls,Geomorphic features inherited from the mid-Holocene glacio-hydro-isostatic sea-level highstand that affected the central Pacific region influence the susceptibility of atoll islets to potentially enhanced wave erosion associated with rise in sea level from global warming. Shoreline morphology on multiple islets of Funafuti atoll in central Tuvalu reflects a relative mid-Holocene sea-level highstand 2.2-2.4 m above modern sea level. Typical islets are composed of unconsolidated post-mid-Holocene sediment resting disconformably on cemented coral rubble formed beneath now-emergent mid-Holocene reef hats. Exposed remnants of the lithified islet foundations serve as resistant buttresses protecting the flanks of atoll islets from wave attack. Islets lacking cemented mid-Holocene deposits as part of their infernal structure are migratory sand cays with unstable shorelines. Any future sea-level rise greater than or equal to 0.75 m| bringing high tide above the elevation of mid-Holocene low tide| might trigger enhanced wave erosion of stable atoll islets by overtopping the indurated mid-Holocene reef platforms. As analogous threshold relations are inferred for other central Pacific atolls| the risk of future inundation of island ; nations cannot be evaluated solely in terms of expected sea-level rise with respect to gross islet elevations. (C) 1999 University of Washington. 5029,1999,3,3,Impacts of full cost pricing on the sustainability of urban transportation: towards Canada's Kyoto commitments,Certain concerns about sustainable transportation derive from the premise that significant atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases which contribute to global warming can be attributed to automotive emissions. Among measures considered to curtail automobile dependency and increase transit modal split| "full cost pricing" - a means of extracting both environmental costs and hidden subsidies which road users allegedly impose on society - has emerged as an increasingly popular suggestion. This paper examines the potential impact of full cost pricing on the "sustainability" of urban transportation| using Toronto as a case study. The analysis deals with the direct effects on mode choice and vehicle utilization resulting from increased user costs as might be achieved through fuel taxes or road pricing| as well as the indirect| longer term effects on location decisions. To investigate the land-use impacts| population distributions were altered to reflect more compact development and less urban sprawl as a proxy for relocations that might result from an increase in the costs of automobile use. Impacts are presented in terms of changes in total peak period vehicle-kilometres| mode split| and CO2 emissions. Despite several qualifications related to modelling techniques used in the case study| the analysis suggests that| overall| the impacts of large increases in road user costs appear to be less than proponents of full cost pricing would expect. In addition| the analysis suggests the fairly obvious| namely| that the greatest impacts of pricing occur within those choice markets where reasonable alternatives to the private automobile actually exist. 2264,1999,3,4,Impacts on global ozone and climate from use and emission of 2|2-dichloro-1|1|1-trifluoroethane (HCFC-123),Analyses of emissions| and consequent chlorine loading| show that projected use of 2|2-dichloro-1|1|1-trifluoroethane (HCFC-123) will result in a virtually indiscernible impact on stratospheric ozone. Parametric scenarios uphold this conclusion| even for extreme levels of emissions far exceeding those of current technologies and practices. Additional scenarios reaffirm the conclusion for continued use - beyond the scheduled phaseout date - as a refrigerant in closed systems. By contrast| use of this compound offers unique opportunities to reduce global warming. Moreover| time-dependent analyses show that the minimal contribution to stratospheric chlorine from HCFC-123 emissions will not peak until more than a decade after the residual peaks of chlorine and bromine| from prior chlorofluorocarbon and halon releases| subside. While no single index exists to compare the relative demerits of ozone depletion and climate change| three conclusions are clear. First| reversal of the buildup of bromine and chlorine (i.e.| healing of the `ozone layer') is underway and progressing on target| while sufficient practical remedies for global climate change are far more difficult. Second| the analyses show that phaseout of all chlorinated| and conceptually - but much less probably - all brominated| compounds of anthropogenic origin targets some compounds that provide environmental benefits. Most chlorinated and brominated compounds do warrant phaseout; the exceptions are those with very short atmospheric lifetimes| and consequent low ozone depletion potential (ODP)| that also offer offsetting environmental benefits. And third| since new global environmental concerns may| and probably will| be identified in the future| a more scientific approach is needed to determine environmental acceptability or rejection. 5136,1999,3,4,Including environmental aspects in production development: A case study of tomato ketchup,An environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study of a specific tomato ketchup was carried out. The objectives of the work were to illustrate how LCA can be used in production development; to investigate the influence of the geographical location of certain processes| and to find ways to improve the product's environmental performance. In the screening LCA which includes the whole life cycle| the packaging and processing sub-systems were found to be significant in the total environmental impact made by ketchup. Accordingly| six alternative systems| including packaging| processing and transportation| were modelled and simulated The environmental impact categories included were energy use| global warming| acidification| eutrophication| photo-oxidant formation and the generation of radioactive waste. It was concluded that the current geographical location of the production of ketchup is preferable; the contributions to acidification can be reduced significantly; and the environmental profile of the product can be improved for either the type of tomato paste currently used or a less concentrated tomato paste. A shift to a less concentrated paste would also mean that traditional quality parameters of the ketchup could be improved. (C) 1999 Academic Press. 5006,1999,2,3,Increased hurricane intensities with CO2-induced warming as simulated using the GFDL hurricane prediction system,The impact of CO2-induced global warming on the intensities of strong hurricanes is investigated using the GFDL regional high-resolution hurricane prediction system. The large-scale initial conditions and boundary conditions for the regional model experiments| including SSTs| are derived from control and transient CO2 increase experiments with the GFDL R30-resolution global coupled climate model. In a case study approach| 51 northwest Pacific storm cases derived from the global model under present-day climate conditions are simulated with the regional model| along with 51 storm cases for high CO2 conditions. For each case| the regional model is integrated forward for five days without ocean coupling. The high CO2 storms| with SSTs warmer by about 2.2 degrees C on average and higher environmental convective available potential energy (CAPE)| are more intense than the control storms by about 3-7 m/s (5%-11%) for surface wind speed and 7 to 24 hPa for central surface pressure. The simulated intensity increases are statistically significant according to most of the statistical tests conducted and are robust to changes in storm initialization methods. Near-storm precipitation is 28% greater in the high CO2 sample. In terms of storm tracks| the high CO2 sample is quite similar to the control. The mean radius of hurricane force winds is 2 to 3% greater for the composite high CO2 storm than for the control| and the high CO2 storms penetrate slightly higher into the upper troposphere. More idealized experiments were also performed in which an initial storm disturbance was embedded in highly simplified flow fields using time mean temperature and moisture conditions from the global climate model. These idealized experiments support the case study results and suggest that| in terms of thermodynamic influences| the results for the NW Pacific basin are qualitatively applicable to other tropical storm basins. 2257,1999,2,4,Indicators of impacts of global climate change on US water resources,Environmental and socioeconomic indicators are selected to study the impacts of global warming on the water resources of the United States. One of the indicators| regional reservoir storage vulnerability| is a particularly useful index summarizing the effectiveness of regional water supply systems to meet demands. A comparison of indicator tabulation and evaluation methods finds that reporting an indicator as a fraction of its stress threshold is most effective. Indicator display methods are compared| and the star diagram proves most effective as a visual aggregation technique. Indicators and evaluation methods are applied to the present climate and to one possible climate change scenario assuming economic growth. It is apparent that the primary impacts of global warming occur in the western U.S. and include (1) fewer relative stresses an hydroelectric systems due to an increase in energy supply from other sources| and (2) more stresses on available water resources due to increases in total withdrawals and| in some cases| decreases in flows. The writers believe that with wise indicator display methods| mathematical aggregation of indicators into indices may be unnecessary. 2305,1999,3,4,Industrial insulation: Protects the environment| improves efficiency| and saves more money than you can imagine!,Stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions to stem the impact of global climate change is becoming one of the hottest topics heading into the new century. Regardless of which side of the issue you are on| there is no debate that increasing energy efficiency is important to environmental preservation. One of the most effective energy efficient technologies available is mineral fiber insulation. The examples presented will give energy management professionals the evidence they need to consider industrial insulation a time-tested| off-the-shelf technology for achieving major reductions in operating costs and CO2 emissions. 4966,1999,2,4,Influence of landscape on the population genetic structure of the alpine butterfly Parnassius smintheus (Papilionidae),Four microsatellite DNA markers were developed which were used to examine the relationship between landscape and population genetic structure among a set of populations of the butterfly Parnassius smintheus located in the foothills of the Canadian Rockies. Detailed information on the dispersal of adult butterflies among this same set of populations was available. Simple and partial Mantel tests were used to examine the relationships between genetic distances| predicted rates of dispersal| and a number of landscape variables| all measured pairwise for 17 sample sites. Nei's standard genetic distance was negatively correlated with predicted dispersal. We observed a significant pattern of isolation by distance at a very small spatial scale. The distance between sites that was through forest was a stronger predictor of genetic distance than the distance through open meadow| indicating a significant effect of landscape on population genetic structure beyond that of simple isolation by distance. Our results suggest that rises in the tree-line in alpine areas| caused by global warming| will lead to reduced gene flow among populations of P. smintheus. 4928,1999,4,4,Infrared absorption cross section| radiative forcing| and GWP of four hydrofluoro(poly)ethers,Quantitative infrared cross-sections of the unbranched hydrofluoro(poly)ethers CHF2OCHF2| CHF2OCF2OCHF2 and CHF2OCF2CF2OCHF2 have been obtained at 298 K in the region 25-4000 cm(-1). Radiative forcing calculations have been performed for these compounds and for CHF2OCF2OCF2CF2OCHF2| and the values found per molecule are high compared to those of other CFCs and CFC replacements. Atmospheric lifetimes| calculated on the basis of experimental reaction rates with OH radicals| and global warming potentials are presented for all four compounds. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5081,1999,5,4,Interaction of tectonic and depositional processes that control the evolution of the Iberian Gulf of Cadiz margin,This study provides an integrated view of the growth patterns and factors that controlled the evolution of the Gulf of Cadiz continental margin based on studies of the tectonic| sedimentologic and oceanographic history of the area. Seven sedimentary regimes are identified| but there are more extensive descriptions of the late Cenozoic regimes because of the larger data base. The regimes of the Mesozoic passive margin include carbonate platforms| which become mixed calcareous-terrigenous deposits during the Late Cretaceous-early Tertiary. The Oligocene and Early Miocene terrigenous regimes developed| in contrast| over the active and transcurrent margins near the African-Iberian plate boundary. The top of the Gulf of Cadiz olistostrome| emplaced in the Late Miocene| is used as a key horizon to define the 'post-orogenic' depositional regimes. The Late Miocene progradational margin regime is characterized by a large terrigenous sediment supply to the margin and coincides with the closing of the Miocene Atlantic-Mediterranean gateways. The terrigenous drift depositional regime of the Early Pliocene resulted from the occurrence of high eustatic sea level and the characteristics of the Mediterranean outflow currents that developed after the opening of the Strait of Gibraltar. The Late Pliocene and Quaternary regimes are dominated by sequences of deposits related to cycles of high and low sea levels. Deposition of shelf-margin deltas and slope wedges correlate with regressive and low sea level regimes caused by eustasy and subsidence. During the highstand regimes of the Holocene| inner shelf prograding deltas and deep-water sediment drifts were developed under the influence of the Atlantic inflow and Mediterranean outflow currents| respectively. A modem human cultural regime began 2000 years ago with the Roman occupation of Iberia; human cultural effects on sedimentary regimes may have equalled natural factors such as climate change. Interplay of tectonic and oceanographic controls dominated the evolution of the Cadiz margin during the Cenozoic. Depositional sequences formed where the tectonic setting provided the accommodation space and the shape of the deposits has been greatly influenced by the strong unidirectional Atlantic inflow currents on the shelf and Mediterranean outflow currents on the slope. The entire cycle of the inflow and outflow deposition along the margin has been controlled first by the tectonic evolution of the Betic and Rif gateways| which become closed during the Late Miocene| and after the Messinian by the opening of the Strait of Gibraltar. Strong current development during eustatic sea level highstands of the Pliocene and Quaternary has controlled deposition because of maximum sill depths at Gibraltar for water circulation. Lowstand sea levels slowed circulation and resulted in mud drapes over the slope and regressive stratigraphic sequences over the shelf. More recently| the human industrial revolution has caused heavy metal contamination of sediment and water over the Cadiz margin. Human activity also has affected sedimentation rates because of deforestation that caused increased depositional rates near undammed rivers and decreased rates where rivers have been dammed. Future research efforts will need to focus on: (1) the effect of increased Mediterranean outflow caused by river damming plus global warming and the increased outflow as a potential trigger for new ice ages; (2) assessments of geologic hazards for planning man-made shoreline structures| developing offshore petroleum resources and maintaining undersea communications cables; and (3) confirmation of the general geologic history of the Cadiz margin. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5053,1999,2,4,Interactions between plant species and earthworm casts in a calcareous grassland under elevated CO2,We tested the hypothesis that the spatial proximity of a plant species to nutrient-rich earthworm casts (e.g.| 100% more ammonium and 30% more phosphate than in adjacent soil) is an important determinant of a plant's responsiveness to elevated atmospheric CO2. In 1995 we mapped the location of both earthworm surface casts and plants in each of 16 1.2-m(2) plots in a species-rich calcareous grassland in northwestern Switzerland. Eight plots have been maintained under current ambient CO2 concentrations (350 mu L CO2/ L)| and eight have been maintained at elevated CO2 (600 mu L CO2/L) since March 1994. in addition| total ramet production of each species| as a measure of performance| and cumulative cast production at each location (cell) were recorded at peak community biomass in 1995. Plant species within functional groups (graminoids| non-legume forbs| and legumes) differed markedly in their degree of association with casts; however| after two growing seasons elevated CO2 had no effect on plant species or functional group associations with casts. No statistically significant relationship could be demonstrated between plant-species response (i.e.| ramet production) to elevated CO2 and the degree of association with casts within any of the functional groups. However| a positive relationship was observed between the mean response of graminoid species to elevated CO2 (measured as the percentage change in mean total ramet production of graminoid species| relative to mean total ramet production at ambient CO2) and their mean degree of association (%) with surface casts at ambient CO2. Thus| graminoid species more frequently associated with casts (e.g.| Anthoxanthum odoratum and Carer caryophyllea) produced more ramets per square meter at elevated CO2 than those less frequently associated with casts (e.g.| Agrostis tenuis and Danthonia decumbens). These results| along with the strong and significant positive correlations observed between ramet production and associated cumulative cast mass across CO2 treatments for most plant species in all functional groups demonstrate: (1) that plant species differ significantly in their degree of association with nutrient-rich earthworm surface casts| regardless of the relative abundance of plant species in the community; (2) that graminoid species that are more highly associated with casts may respond more strongly to rising CO2 than those less highly associated with casts; and (3) that nutrient-rich earthworm casts stimulate the growth (ramet production) of most plant species in these grassland communities| even at current levels of atmospheric CO2. The data further suggest that these species-specific relationships between plants and casts have helped define the current structure of these highly diverse grassland communities and will likely influence their future structure as global CO2 levels continue to rise. 5047,1999,2,4,Interannual| decadal-interdecadal| and global warming signals in sea surface temperature during 1955-97,Sea surface temperature (SST) data from the NOAA analysis for the period of 1955-97 are used to identify dominant spatial and temporal patterns associated with interannual| decadal-interdecadal variabilities| and global warming. For the global annual mean SST variation| a linear trend plus pronounced decadal-interdecadal and interannual variabilities are found. The linear trend reflects a slow warming of about 0.1 degrees C in the past four decades. Superimposed on the linear trend is a relatively fast warming in the past two decades of approximately 0.2 degrees-0.3 degrees C| which is associated with the advent of the warm phase of a decadal-interdecadal oscillation. Also noted is the more frequent occurrence of warm events and the dearth of cold events on interannual timescales in the early and mid-1990s. For the last four decades| the tropical oceans have been warming at the faster rate while the extratropical North Pacific and the northwestern North Atlantic has been cooling at the slower rate. The exceptional intensity of the 1997 warm event stems from the superposition of the warm phases of a moderate interannual signal| a decadal-interdecadal oscillation| and a steady warming trend since 1955. The first annual empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode shows an El Nino signal| modified by a warming trend. In this mode. the tropical eastern Pacific and Indian Oceans are warmed relative to the western Pacific| leading to a relaxation of the climatological east-west SST gradient. The second annual EOF mode shows that there is a secondary cooling trend in the equatorial eastern Pacific| centered near the Nino-3 (5 degrees S-5 degrees N| 150 degrees-90 degrees W;) area. This cooling is most pronounced in the boreal fall and summer. It was strongest in the 1980s| but considerably weakened in the 1990s. The cooling is well correlated with the observed surface wind divergence in the equatorial eastern Pacific cold tongue region and with anomalous surface easterly wind in the equatorial central Pacific| signaling an enhancement of the Walker circulation. The net result of the warming and cooling tendencies in the tropical eastern Pacific produces slightly less warming in the Nino-3 area compared with the equatorial central and eastern Pacific| but with little change in large-scale SST gradient across the Pacific. The implications of the present results on the mechanisms and detection of global warming are discussed. 2297,1999,4,4,Intercalibration of GMS-5 IR channels and NOAA-14 AVHRR channels 4 and 5,For the estimation of global climate change through analysis of the data from multiple satellite sensors| the intercalibration of the sensors is indispensable. In this paper| results of intercalibration of the newly developed VISSR for GMS-5 and NOAA-14 AVHRR are described. The method is based on collocated clear radiance observations with GMS-5 VISSR and NOAA-14 AVHRR. The results of the correlation analysis of the data of IR channels 1 and 2 of GMS-5 VISSR and those of channels 4 and 5 of NOAA-14 AVHRR indicate the following features. The observed brightness temperature with IR channel 1 of VISSR is about 0.8K-1.5K colder than that with channel 4 of AVHRR| while that with IR channel 2 is about 0.1K-1.0K warmer than that with channel 5 of AVHRR. The result of adjustment on working spectral response function and atmospheric correction indicates that the adjusted brightness temperatures with IR channels 1 and 2 of VISSR are about 1K colder than that with channels 4 and 5 of AVHRR. Thus this result shows IR channels 1 and 2 on GMS-5 indicate a certain disagreement with channels 4 and 5 of NOAA-14 AVHRR. (C) 1999 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 2299,1999,5,4,Intercontinental dispersal of Holarctic land mammals near the Paleocene/Eocene boundary: paleogeographic| paleoclimatic and biostratigraphic implications,The reorganization of North American and European mammalian faunas across the Paleocene/Eocene boundary is attributed to intercontinental dispersal of higher-level taxa that originated in Asia. Hypotheses positing dispersal of these higher-level taxa from a Gondwanan source (either Africa or the Indian subcontinent) are rejected on the basis of their discordance with both phylogenetic and biostratigraphic data sets. Because the only viable routes for dispersal between Holarctic continents during the late Pareocene-early Eocene were land bridges located at high latitudes| global climate change was a decisive factor mediating the nature and timing of faunal interchange. Dispersal of higher-level taxa beyond Asia was episodic and iterative| and seems to have occurred solely via Beringia. Because intercontinental dispersal of terrestrial taxa such as mammals rarely coincides precisely with their phylogenetic origin| geologically earlier first appearances of such taxa on their continent of origin are not unexpected. Given this paradigm| the Gashatan and Bumbanian Asian Land Mammal Ages (ALMAs) are likely to be older than is frequently conceived. At least some Bumbanian faunas| such as that from the Wutu Formation of Shandong Province| China| are correlated with the Clarkforkian North American Land Mammal Age (NALMA)| an interval that appears to be undocumented in the European record of mammalian evolution. 5139,1999,3,3,International cooperation and the adoption of environmentally responsible technologies,Adaption of technologies for energy production with improved environmental performance is essential for supporting world economic growth and managing the global warming and climate change issues. International cooperation is critical to ensure the environmental and energy security of world economies on a global basis. For example| the USA has acquired a great deal of useful experience in clean coal technology| which has been demonstrated with major utilities in commercial operations. The adoption and installation of clean coal technology should be given high priority worldwide. The continuous exchange of information and technology between developed and developing economies relating to current and fut4f great importance. Developed economies that possess environmentally responsive technologies and financial resources should work closely with developing economies to facilitate technology transfer and trade of technologies. Cooperation between economies can result in lowering the cast of deploying clean coal technologies directed toward the clean production of energy. This paper discusses a bilateral approach| i.e. the US/China Center for Energy and Environment| Co facilitate the mitigation of emissions and promote the clean use of coal to satisfy growing energy demand in developing economies. 5021,1999,4,4,Land-use change: effects on soil carbon| nitrogen and phosphorus pools and fluxes in three adjacent ecosystems,Changes in land use can affect soil organic matter contents and fertility and also atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming through soil respiration. We compared total and microbial C| N and P pools and C and N metabolism in sandy loam soils (Typic Udivitrands) under indigenous broadleaf-podocarp forest| grazed introduced pasture and 19-yr old Pinus radiata D. Don forest (planted on previous pasture) in New Zealand. Total and microbial C and N declined consistently with profile depth (except for total N in L and FH samples)| and in comparable depths of mineral soil (to 20 cm) tended to be lower in the pine than in the other systems. Total P| organic P and extractable inorganic P concentrations at comparable depths were| in contrast| lowest in the indigenous forest. Microbial P concentrations did not differ significantly between the different systems. Microbial C-to-microbial N ratios differed little among soil profile depths and ecosystems. In 0-10 cm depth mineral soil| CO2-C production| metabolic quotients (qCO(2) values) and net N mineralization were all highest in the pasture samples. Net nitrification was high in the pine and pasture samples| but much lower in the indigenous forest samples; nitrate-N was| however| consistently present in streamwater from all three ecosystems. Changes in total C and microbial C and N pools on an area basis to 20 cm depth mineral soil were greatest after conversion of the indigenous forest to pasture; total N contents were| however| as high in the pasture as in the forest and net N mineralization was highest in the pasture. On this area basis| changes in total C contents were small after conversion of pasture to pines| although the distribution within the soil profile did differ considerably between the pine and pasture systems. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5040,1999,5,3,Large ground surface temperature changes of the last three centuries inferred from borehole temperatures in the Southern Canadian Prairies| Saskatchewan,New temperature logs in wells located in the grassland ecozone in the Southern Canadian Prairies in Saskatchewan| where surface disturbance is considered minor| show a large curvature in the upper 100 m. The character of this curvature is consistent with ground surface temperature (GST) warming in the 20th century. Repetition of precise temperature logs in southern Saskatchewan (years 1986 and 1997) shows the conductive nature of warming of the Subsurface sediments. The magnitude of surface temperature change during that time (11 years) is high (0.3-0.4 degrees C)| To assess the conductive nature of temperature variations at the grassland surface interface| several precise air and soil temperature time series in the southern Canadian Prairies (1965-1995) were analyzed. The combined anomalies correlated at 0.85. Application of the functional space inversion (FSI) technique with the borehole temperature logs and site-specific lithology indicates a warming to date of approximately 2.5 degrees C since a minimum in the late 18th century to mid 19th century. This warming represents an approximate increase from 4 degrees C around 1850 to 6.5 degrees C today. The significance of this record is that it suggests almost half of the warming occurred prior to 1900| before dramatic build up of atmospheric green house gases. This result correlates well with the proxy record of climatic change further to the north| beyond the Arctic Circle [Overpeck| J.| Hughen| K.| Hardy| D.| Bradley| R|| Case| R.| Douglas| M|| Finney| B.| Gajewski| K.| Jacoby| G.| Jennings| A.| Lamourex| S.| Lasca| A.| MacDonald| G.| Moore| J.| Retelle| M.| Smith| S.| Wolfe| A.| Zielinski| G.| 1997. Arctic environmental change of the last four centuries| Science 278| 1251-1256.]. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2244,1999,2,4,Latitudinal gradients in benthic community composition in Western Atlantic estuaries,Aim The community composition of benthic macroinvertebrates from 295 estuarine sires was examined in order to either confirm or challenge established boundaries of zoogeographical provinces. We also investigated the postulate that| while local distributions were determined by natural habitat characteristics such as salinity| sediment type and depth| distributions on a large geographical scale would bt: correlated with temperature. Location The Atlantic coast of the United States (on a latitudinal gradient from 42 degrees to 25 degrees N). Methods Using the descriptive techniques of cluster analysis and nonmetric multidimensional scaling| we determined the similarities in benthic community composition between sites within 1 degrees latitudinal bands and compared the biotic ordinations to natural habitat characteristics such as salinity| sediment type and depth. We then evaluated the overall community composition within each 1 degrees latitudinal band and established whether or not similarities existed between adjacent 1 degrees latitudinal bands. In this manner| we were able to confirm that a latitudinal gradient existed in estuarine benthic community composition along the western Atlantic coast. This latitudinal gradient was demarcated by biogeographical boundaries at (1) Biscayne Bay| Florida| (2) the southern end of the Indian River Lagoon| Florida| (3) St John's River| Florida| (4) Cape Island| South Carolina| (5) the mouth of the Cape Fear River| North Carolina. and (6) Caps God| Massachusetts| with 3 subprovince boundary just north of Cape May at Wildwood| New Jersey. Results The major divisions approximated widely recognized biogeographical boundaries. Average summer water temperatures correlated better than sediment type| depth| or salinity with the latitudinal groupings of sites determined by cluster analysis. Conclusions Based on this relationship| we speculate on the potential impacts of current global climate change scenarios on the distribution of benthic macroinvertebrates along the western Atlantic coast. 5059,1999,3,4,Life-cycle framework for assessment of site remediation options: Case study,An adaptation of life-cycle assessment for contaminated site remediation activities was used to examine a lead-contaminated site remediated by excavation and disposal. The study indicated emissions and impacts associated with energy consumption (transportation of contaminated soil to hazardous and nonhazardous sites)| solid waste production (contaminated soil and sludge)| land use at four sites (the contaminated site| two disposal sites| and a borrow pit for clean fill)| and potential toxicity from emissions and contaminants remaining on-site. These impacts were drawn from an inventory compiled mainly from proprietary consultants' reports| and related to impacts through several stressor-impact models; the process-related indicators of global warming potential| solid waste burden| and ecological and human toxicity potential; and site-related indicators of land use and residual human toxicity burden. Ecological and human toxicity potentials were estimated using the Mackay level III model for southern Ontario| Canada| adapted for metals. The life-cycle approach proved useful for identifying potential impacts occurring at local| regional| and global scales| over all activities and locations affected by the remediation. 2296,1999,5,4,Linked sequence development and global climate change: The Upper Mississippian record in the Appalachian basin,The character and relative stratigraphic position of paleoclimatic indicators within Upper Mississippian strata of southern West Virginia suggest a link between eustasy and patterns of continental- to global-scale atmospheric circulation. At the cyclothem scale| annual rhythms in marine facies| and paleovertisols and lacustrine carbonates in terrestrial units indicate that seasonal| semiarid climatic conditions prevailed during highstand progradation. In contrast| leached paleosols and coals that underlie sequence boundaries and occur within transgressive heterolithic facies are suggestive of humid climatic conditions during late highstand through early transgression. Milankovitch-band| glacial-interglacial cyclicity may explain both sequence development and the evidence for Late Mississippian climate fluctuations in the Appalachian: basin. Shifts from seasonal to humid climatic conditions are attributed to systematic variation in monsoonal circulation| whereby seasonal moisture became restricted to the equatorial belt during the lowstands of each similar to 400 k.y. glacial-interglacial cycle. 2226,1999,2,4,Linking observed and general circulation model upper air circulation patterns to current and future snow runoff for the Rocky Mountains,Snowmelt runoff from alpine areas is the primary source of streamflow and water supply in western North America. Increasingly| questions about the impacts of global climate change on watershed yield are being asked. This paper is a forecast of expected changes to runoff for two key rivers in western North America. The paper develops and applies linkages between historical and general circulation model (GCM) upper air circulation patterns deemed to control winter precipitation in the northern Rocky Mountain states and southern Alberta. Historical and 1 x CO2 GCM upper airflow conditions are quite similar| but there are substantive variations in the GCM 2 x CO2 upper airflows. Relative occurrence (dominance) of historical synoptic patterns is statistically linked to historical spring runoff for the Oldman and Colorado Rivers. These linkages are used to forecast variation in the future runoff on the basis of variations in synoptic pattern statistics for the 2 x CO2 GCM upper airflow patterns. 5027,1999,4,4,Living in a dusty world: Airborne dust as a key factor for alpine lakes,For a long time studies on precipitation and lake-water chemistry have focussed on the deposition of strong acids. Dust in snow and rain was analyzed much less intensively| but recent findings suggest that it may be the missing link which explains why many low-alkalinity lakes in the Alps and the Pyrenees did not become acidic and nutrient levels are seasonally high| whereas lakes in areas which are rarely influenced by dust depositions| for instance in Scandinavia| have acidified. Beside being a dominant factor for nutrient inputs to oceans| rain forests and remote lakes| dust can also play a major role in global warming and cooling| and it may significantly contribute to soil formation at mountain sites in the Mediterranean. I suggest that future changes in dust deposition and warming will be key factors for the development of alpine lakes. 2260,1999,4,3,Local estimates of global climate change: A statistical downscaling approach,For the purposes of estimating local changes in surface climate at selected stations in the central Argentina region| induced by an enhanced CO| concentration| projected by general circulation models (GCM)| a statistical method to derive local scale monthly mean minimum| maximum and mean temperatures from large-scale atmospheric predictors is presented. Empirical relationships are derived among selected variables from the NCEP re-analyses and local data for summer and winter months| tested against an independent set of observed data and subsequently applied to the MADAM and MPI GCM control runs. Finally| the statistical approach is applied to a climate change experiment performed with the MPI model to construct a local climate change scenario. The comparison between the estimated versus the observed mean temperature fields shows good agreement and the temporal evolution of the estimated variables is well-captured| though| the estimated temperatures contain less interannual variability than the observations. For the present day climate simulation| the results from the HADAM and MPI GCMs are used. It is shown that the pattern of estimated temperatures obtained using the MPI large-scale predictors matches the observations for summer months| though minimum and mean temperatures are slightly underestimated in the southeast part of the domain. However| the differences are well within the range of the observed variability. The possible anthropogenic climate change at the local scale is assessed by applying the statistical method to the results of the perturbed run conducted with the MPI model. For summer and winter months| the local temperature increase is smaller for minimum temperature than for maximum temperature for almost all the stations| yielding an enhanced temperature amplitude in both seasons. The temperature amplitude (difference between maximum and minimum) for summer months was larger than for winter months. The estimated maximum temperature increase is found to be larger for summer months than for winter months for all the stations| while for the minimum| temperature increases for summer and winter months are similar. Copyright (C) 1999 Royal Meteorological Society. 4931,1999,2,4,Long distance migration of insects to a subantarctic island,Transoceanic migration of four species of macrolepidoptera to subantarctic Macquarie Island has been detected in 7 out of 33 years Juring the period 1962-96 and is restricted to spring and autumn. Analyses of synoptic charts during the migration period show that autumn immigrants originated from New Zealand and comprised a single species of noctuid moth|Agrotis ipsilon (Walker). Spring immigrants originated from Australia and comprised two noctuids| Dasypodia selenophora Guenee and Persectania ewingii Westwood and a butterfly| Vanessa kershawi (McCoy). Autumn migrations were associated with depressions in the southern Tasman Sea. Spring migrations were associated with the eastward passage of prefrontal airflows ahead of cold fronts which extended from southern Australia to the west of Macquarie Island. In an analysis of one of these events| winds exceeded 30 ms(-1) at 300 m altitude and could have transported migrants from Tasmania to Macquarie Island overnight in less than 10 h. Flight activity was assisted by the presence of a nocturnal temperature inversion that maintained upper air temperatures above 5 degrees C. The effect of potential global warming on the migration and colonization of Macquarie Island by insects is discussed. 2262,1999,4,4,Long term changes in diurnal temperature range in Cyprus,Long term temperature data from two stations on the island of Cyprus have been analysed. Increasing trends of approximately 1 degrees C/100 years in the annual mean temperatures are found at both stations. However| the minimum daily temperatures have generally increased at a larger rate than the maximum daily temperatures| resulting in a decrease in the long-term diurnal temperature range. This decrease ranges from -0.5 degrees C/100 years to -3.5 degrees C/100 years| depending on the location. The reduction in the diurnal temperature range is consistent with observations from other parts of the globe| and may indicate that the climate in this region of the globe is part of a larger global climate change that has been occurring over the last century. It is possible that long term changes in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are responsible for the long-term annual mean temperature increase. Furthermore| the changes in the diurnal temperature range can possibly be explained by increases in cloud cover and/or tropospheric aerosols. It is possible that part of these changes is caused by local land-use changes| primarily by the increasing urbanization of Cyprus. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4945,1999,2,3,Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model,We present global warming scenarios computed with an intermediate-complexity atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model which has been extensively validated for a range of past climates (e.g.| the Last Glacial Maximum). Our simulations extend to the year 3000| beyond the expected peak of CO2 concentrations. The thermohaline ocean circulation declines strongly in all our scenarios over the next 50 years due to a thermal effect. Changes in the hydrological cycle determine whether the circulation recovers or collapses in the long run. Both outcomes are possible within present uncertainty limits. In case of a collapse| a substantial long-lasting cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying of Europe is simulated. 2301,1999,2,4,Long-term increase in numbers of early-fledged Reed Warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus) at Lake Constance (Southern Germany),Data from a standardized mist-netting programme (the so-called "MRI-Programm") were used to assess the timing of breeding in Reed Warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus) at Lake Constance (South Germany). The number of Reed Warblers fledged early in the season increased significantly between 1976 and 1997 (r(s) = 0.614; p < 0.01). This is most probably due to a long-term increase in spring temperature as suggested by the high correlation between the number of early-fledged Reed Warblers and mean temperature in the first half of May (r(s) = 0.416; p < 0.01). While in the period from 1961 to 1980 the mean date of spring arrival was on the 26(th) of April| it shifted towards the 19(th) April from 1981 to 1997. However| the number of early-fledged Reed Warblers and the date of spring arrival are not significantly correlated. The lack of a significant correlation may be due to a number of reasons| for instance early arriving birds do not belong to the local population or there could be an observational bias among years. Yet| the most likely explanation is that the timing of breeding in Reed Warblers is triggered by vegetation growth and food supply rather than by the timing of spring arrival. There is growing body of evidence from this and other studies that the:recent climate change is responsible for the shift in both the timing of migration and breeding in birds. 4984,1999,2,4,Long-term reconstruction of the fire season in the mixedwood boreal forest of Western Canada,Climate modelling studies have predicted an increase in fire frequency with global warming as well as suggesting a longer fire season occurring later in the year. We used 160 years of fire scars in Pinus banksiana Lamb. dating from 1831 to 1948 and written fire records from 1927 to 1995 for Prince Albert National Park in the southern boreal forest to look for evidence of changes in the duration and timing of the fire season (defined as the months when large areas burn) that may have accompanied past changes in fire frequency. The Park's time-since-fire distribution had indicated two such changes: one around 1890 and the other around 1945| both in the direction of decreasing fire frequency. Both fire scars and written fire records indicated that the dominance of the spring fire season (April-June) has remained unchanged over the past 160 years. A small number of scars suggested that the fire season may have extended slightly into the summer (July) prior to 1890 when the fire cycle was much shorter and that the fire season may have shifted to a slightly earlier spring start after 1945 when the fire cycle was much longer.
5108,1999,2,3,Long-term responses of boreal vegetation to global change: an experimental and modelling investigation,The response of boreal ecosystems to future global change is an uncertain but potentially critical component of the feedback between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. To reduce some of the uncertainties in predicting the responses of this key ecosystem| the climate change experiment (CLIMEX) exposed an entire undisturbed catchment of boreal vegetation to CO2 enrichment (560 ppmv) and climate change (+ 5 degrees C in winter| + 3 degrees C in summer) for three years (1994-96). This paper describes the leaf metabolic responses of the vegetation to the experimental treatment and model simulations of possible future changes in the hydrological and carbon balance of the site. Randomized intervention analysis of the leaf gas exchange measurements for the dominant species indicated Pinus sylvestris had significantly (P < 0.01) higher photosynthetic rates and Betula pubescens and Vaccinium myrtillus had significantly (P < 0.01) lower stomatal conductances after three years treatment compared to the controls. These responses led to sustained increases in leaf water-use efficiency of all species of trees and ground shrubs| as determined from carbon isotope analyses. Photosynthesis (A) vs. intercellular CO2 (c(i)) response curves (A/c(i) responses)| RuBisCo analysis and leaf nitrogen data together suggested none of the species investigated exhibited down-regulation in photosynthetic capacity. At the whole ecosystem level| the improved water economy of the plants did not translate into increased catchment runoff. Modelling simulations for the site indicate this was most likely brought about by a compensatory increase in evapotranspiration. In terms of the carbon budget of the site| the ecosystem model indicates that increased CO2 and temperature would lead to boreal ecosystems of the type used in CLIMEX| and typical of much of southern Norway| acting as moderate net sinks for CO2. 5034,1999,2,4,Long-term trend toward earlier breeding in an American bird: A response to global warming?,In regions with severe winters| global warming may be expected to cause earlier onset of breeding in most animals| yet no documentation of such a trend exists in North America. In a study of marked individuals of the Mexican jay (Aphelocoma ultramarina) in southeastern Arizona| from 1971 to 1998| the mean Julian date of first clutch in the population declined significantly by 10.1 days. The date of the first nest in the population also became earlier| by 10.8 days. These changes were associated with significant trends toward increased monthly minimum temperatures on the study area| traits that are associated with the onset of breeding in this population| Significant trends from 1971 to 1997 toward warmer minimum temperatures in the months before and during the initiation of breeding were observed. These trends parallel changes in minimum temperatures and community composition in a recent study of grassland ecology in the western United States. Together| they suggest that more attention should be given to the possible ecological importance of global change in minimum temperatures. 2254,1999,2,4,Low-flow frequency exacerbation by irrigation withdrawals in the agricultural midwest under various climate change scenarios,As a possible outcome of global climate change| reductions in precipitation| while directly decreasing surface water streamflows and reserves| can also initiate or exacerbate the surface water demand by regional agriculture. Driven by the desire to maintain consistent yields and|hedge the risk of drought| farmers may implement or increase supplemental irrigation applications| obtaining water from either surface sources or aquifers. This paper presents results of an investigation of the impact of these effects on streamflows in the midwestern United States. The investigation examines the direct effect of precipitation reduction and the indirect effects of riparian and nonriparian irrigation. The crop-growth and farm-scale hydrologic model erosion-productivity impact calculator is used in conjunction with the routing features of the basin-scale hydrologic model soil water analysis tool to simulate direct and indirect effects of global change on streamflows. The analysis shows that the coupled effects of decreases in runoff and increases in irrigation may be devastating to the streams of Illinois and other midwestern states. For the example basin a 25% decrease in mean precipitation under optimal irrigation practices by both riparian and nonriparian farmers yields an increase in the annual (mean) occurrence of the historical (7)Q(10) from 3 days/year to 13 days/year| despite the streamflow accretion from groundwater-supplied irrigators. 5072,1999,3,4,Measurements of CH4 and N2O emissions from rice paddies in Fengqiu| China,Methane emissions were measured by a closed chamber method in rice plots with sandy| loamy| and clayey soil| respectively| under a water regime consisting of a flooding and draining cycle in Fengqiu| Henan Province| China in 1993 and 1994. Nitrous oxide emissions were measured for every two measurements of CH4 flux in 1994. The results showed that CH4 emissions were low compared with those recorded in previous reports and the means of CH4 fluxes ranged from 0.16 to 1.86 mg CH4 m(-2) h(-1) in the growing season (108 d). The lowest mean flux of CH4 was observed in the clayey plot in both years. Statistically| soil temperature and soil Eh at 5 cm depth significantly affected the fluctuations of the CH4 flux measured in the morning and afternoon| but they were not the main factors controlling the seasonal variation of the CH4 flux. Flooding and draining cycle| as well as high rate of water percolation and low organic matter content of the soils resulted in low emissions of CH4. In contrast| the studied plots had high emissions of N2O| ranging from - 9.02 to 1|640 mu g N m(-2) h(-1)| with arithmetic means of 168.8| 76.9| and 65.2 mu g N m(-2) h(-1) in the sandy| loamy| and clayey plots| respectively| which were comparable in magnitude to those observed in cultivated upland soils. Flooding and draining cycle| i.e.| dynamics of water status in the studied plots| was considered to be an important factor controlling N2O emission. Therefore| the mitigating effect of CH4 emission under the water regime would be offset by an increase in N2O emission. Rice fields where water management involves intermittent draining may contribute substantially to the total amount of N2O emitted to the atmosphere. 2273,1999,4,4,Measuring very low frequency sea level variations using satellite altimeter data,Very low frequency (VLF) sea. level variations are an important indicator of global climate change| and their measurement can provide important information for determining the socioeconomic impact of sea level change on coastal land use. The prospect of measuring VLF sea level variations has been assessed using approximately 5 years of satellite altimeter data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) mission| where synoptic mapping of the geocentric height of the ocean surface is routinely achieved with a point-to-point accuracy of better than 4 fm| The global mean sea level variations measured by T/P every 10 days have an RMS of 4 mm and a rate of change + 3.1 +/- 1.3 mm/year| after accounting for an average instrument drift computed using the global tide gauge network by Mitchum (1998). A likely cause of the observed instrument drift is the microwave radiometer| which provides the water vapor delay correction| which results in a revised estimate of + 2.5 mm/year if the error is assumed to be linearly related to the mean water vapor delay. Approximately half of this rise appears related to an increase in sea level that began in mid-1996| thus it is unlikely to be sustained over the long term. Estimates of sea level change over the major ocean basins reveal that the North Atlantic has risen over the T/P mission| and this is believed to be related to decadal changes in heat storage. Maps of the geographic variability of the observed sea level trends are currently dominated by ENSO variations| and thus the climate change signals cannot currently be isolated. These results suggest that T/P| when combined with tide gauge monitoring of the satellite instruments| is achieving the necessary accuracy to distinguish sea level rise caused by climate change from the natural 'background' rate of sea level rise| although a longer time series is necessary to average out possible interannual and decadal variations. A longer time series will also reduce the errors in estimates of the altimeter calibration| providing an important constraint on any long-term instrument drift. Future research will focus on establishing a more realistic error budget for these measurements of global mean sea level| so that they can be put in the proper context with other observations of global climate change| In addition| the study of the spatial variability of the sea level rise signal will become increasingly important as a longer time series is collected. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4997,1999,5,3,Mechanisms of climate warming at the end of the Paleocene,An abrupt episode of global warming marked the end of the Paleocene epoch. Oxygen and carbon isotope records from two widely separated sites support the notion that degassing of biogenic methane hydrate may have been an important factor in altering Earth's climate. The data show evidence for multiple injections of methane| separated by intervals in which the carbon cycle was in stasis. Correlations between the two sites suggest that even these small-scale events were global in nature. 4929,1999,3,3,Methane emissions of beef cattle grazing tall fescue pastures at three levels of endophyte infestation,Methane (CH4) is produced by fermentation in the rumen of cattle. Methane may play a part in global warming scenarios. Tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb.) is an important forage in the eastern United States. The toxic syndrome associated with the endophytic fungus Neotyphodium coenophialum (E+) can be mitigated with management strategies that improve forage quality of Ef tail fescue pastures and animal performance. The sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer technique was used to determine the effects of tall fescue pasture management on CH4 production in 1997-1998. Two steers (Bos taurus) on two pastures each of E+ tall fescue| of endophyte free (E-) tall fescue| of E+/E - (1:1 ratio)| and of E+/ladino white clover (Trifolium repens L.)| and four steers and four lactating cows with nursing calves grazing either unimproved (UP) or best management practices (BMP) pastures were used to collect eructated CH4 samples. Daily CH4 emissions were about 95 to 200 g d(-1) for steers and 150 to 240 g d(-1) for cows. Steers grazing E+/clover pastures emitted 20% less CH4 kg(-1) d(-1) than steers grazing E+| E-| or E+/E- in summer. Season and animal size were the major factors affecting CH4 emissions. This first estimation of CH4 emissions from free-roaming cattle grazing tail fescue pastures indicates that (i) improved forage management strategies have little effect on daily emissions per animal that are primarily a function of rumen size and intake| and Oil the amount of emission per unit of animal product is reduced when improved practices are implemented. 4993,1999,2,4,Methanotrophic activities in tropical landfill cover soils: effects of temperature| moisture content and methane concentration,The methane oxidizing capacity of landfill cover soils was investigated through column and batch experiments by simulating conditions that are usually encountered in tropical climates. The rate of oxidation was monitored at different temperatures and moisture contents. It was observed that: a low moisture content of 6% produced negligible oxidation| whereas oxidation rates were at a maximum at moisture contents between 15 and 20%. Temperature was found to be a dominant parameter which controlled the oxidation rates. The optimum temperature was between 30 and 36 degrees C. In the column tests| the temperature influenced the methane oxidation capacity indirectly by causing the topsoil surface to become totally dry| resulting in almost zero oxidation in spite of aerobic conditions. Although some increase in oxidation rate was observed| a higher concentration of methane could not produce a corresponding increase in oxidation rates| indicating the limiting capacity of the soil to oxidize methane. A depth profile of the gas in the column system indicated that the depth of maximum oxidation was around 15 to 40 cm under normal test conditions. Experimental results indicated that the topsoil| if maintained at an optimum moisture content| could also produce a higher oxidation capacity. The results of this experimental program indicate the possibility of maximum methane oxidation in a tropical climate if the correct moisture content is maintained at the top surface. 2242,1999,3,3,Mitigation strategy to contain methane emission from rice-fields,Methane is primarily a biogenic gas| which is implicated in global climate change. Among all the sources of methane emission| paddy fields form the most dominant source. An experiment was conducted with a common paddy crop (Oryza sativa var. Vishnuparag) by amending the soils with different organic manures and biofertilizers with a view to find out an inexpensive strategy to mitigate methane emission from the rice-fields. The results revealed that there was a seasonal change in the CH(4) flux| registering a peak at heading stage in all treatments. The application of rice straw before flooding and the biofertilizer after flooding enhances CH(4) efflux from the rice-fields significantly| while composts of cowdung and leaves did not stimulate CH(4) production and| rather| decreased CH(4) fluxes. As soil pH and temperature were optimum for methanogenesis| it was likely that the organic C and the redox potential mainly modulated methane production and its emission through rice plants. 5043,1999,4,4,Mixed multiway analysis of airborne particle composition data,Airborne particle composition data were obtained from week-long samples collected at the northernmost manned site in the world| Alert| Northwest Territories| Canada| during the period from 1980 to 1991. It was found that the measured weekly average concentrations display strong persistent seasonal variations. Initially the measured concentrations of 24 constituents were arranged into both two-way and three-way data arrays| and bilinear and trilinear models were used to fit the data using positive matrix factorization (PMF). Five factors were found to explain the data quite well for both two-way and three-way modeling| and each factor represented a likely particle source. In the two-way modeling the yearly cyclical seasonal variations were not directly retrieved| since the whole 11 years of data were regarded as a single mode in the fitting. In the three-way analysis| fixed seasonality was imposed by assuming the week-to-week patterns of the source contributions to recur from year to year. The factors represent winter Arctic haze| photochemical sulfate after polar sunrise| biogenic sulfur| soil and sea salt. The resulting fit for some elements became worse because the year-to-year variation is not identical for these sources. These results suggested that a mixed two-way and three-way model might be the best representation of the data. The methodology to calculate such a mixed model has just been developed| namely the multilinear engine (ME). In this study the ME has been used to estimate a mixed two-way/three-way model for the Alert aerosol data. Five two-way and two three-way factors have been found to provide the best fit and interpretation of the data. Each factor represents a probable source with a distinctive compositional profile and seasonal variations. The five two-way factors are (i) winter Arctic haze dominated by SO42 together with metallic species and peaking from December to March| (ii) soil represented by Si| Al and Ca| (iii) sea salt| (iv) sulfate with high acidity peaking in late March/April| and (v) iodine representing most of the observed I with two maxima| one around September/October and the other around March/April. The two three-way factors are (i) bromine characterized by a maximum in the spring around March/April| and (ii) biogenic sulfur which includes sulfate and methane sulfonate (MSA) with maxima in May and August. The results obtained are consistent with those obtained in the previous study and agree with the current understanding of the Arctic aerosol. In both analyses the year-to-year strength of the biogenic factor appears to correlate strongly with the average temperature in the northern hemisphere. This result suggests that as the temperature rises| there is increased biogenic production of the reduced sulfur precursor compounds that are oxidized in the atmosphere to sulfate and MSA and could be evidence of a negative feedback mechanism in the global climate system that had been previously postulated. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 2227,1999,2,3,Model analysis of mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera : Scolytidae) seasonality,The mountain pine beetle| Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins| is a natural disturbance agent of considerable consequence in western pine forests. This economically and ecologically important insect has a strong requisite for maintaining a strict seasonality. Given this ecological requirement| it is somewhat surprising that no evidence for diapause or other physiological tinting mechanism has been found. Seasonality and phenological timing for this species are apparently under direct temperature control. We investigate the consequences of direct temperature control by first constructing a computationally efficient phenology model based on previously published temperature dependent developmental data. We explored the dynamic properties of this model when subjected to observed microhabitat temperatures representing a range of thermal habitats from one region of the mountain pine beetle distribution. We also investigated the consequences of global climate change on phenology and seasonality. Our results indicate that an adaptive seasonality is a natural consequence of the interaction between developmental parameters and seasonal temperatures. Although this adaptive phenology appears to be resilient to temperature fluctuations| changes in climate within the magnitude of predicted climate change under a CO(2) doubling scenario are capable of shifting a thermally hostile environment to a thermally benign environment. Similarly| increasing temperature by the same amount resulted in phenological disruption of a previously favorable thermal habitat. We discuss the implications of these results for restricting the current distribution of mountain pine beetle| and the potential for shifting distribution caused by global climate change. 4924,1999,2,4,Modeling of sulfur sequestration in coastal marsh soils,In transgressive coastal areas| marshes form in response to sea-level rise and they generally represent an ideal environment for the sequestration of S species. Various predictions in rates of sea-level rise associated with global warming and concern for potential environmental problems from acid-sulfate weathering have prompted interest in modeling rates of S sequestration during coastal marsh pedogenesis. In this study| predictive models were derived for organic and pyrite S using data from pedons along two marsh transects in Dorchester County| MD| Organic S accumulates mainly in the organic horizons| and the rate is mainly driven by sea-level rise. Rates of organic S accumulation for the last 150 yr averaged 4.3 +/- 1.19 g m(-2) yr(-1); before this| long-term rates ranged between 0.95 and 2.05 g m(-2) yr(-1). Pyrite S sequestration reflects accumulations both in organic horizons and in the submerged mineral soil. The rate of pyrite sequestration in organic horizons is generally driven by sea-level rise and the availability of reactive Fe. During the last 150 Jr| the rates of pyrite accumulation averaged 7.2 +/- 1.6 g m(-2) yr(-1); before this| long-term rates ranged between 0.53 and 1.14 g m(-2) yr(-1). Modeled predictions of pyrite and organic S accumulations in newly forming marshes during the next century were 15 +/- 4.3 g m(-2) yr(-1) and 19 +/- 8.2 g m(-2) yr(-1)| respectively. 4921,1999,2,2,Modeling the effects of land use and climate change on riverine smallmouth bass,Anthropogenic changes in temperature and stream flow| associated with watershed land use and climate change| are critical influences on the distribution and abundance of riverine fishes. To project the effects of changing land use and climate| we modeled a smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) population in a midwestern USA| large river-floodplain ecosystem under historical (1915-1925)| present (1977-1990)| and future (2060| influenced by climate change) temperature and flow regimes. The age-structured model included parameters for temperature and river discharge during critical seasonal periods| fish population dynamics| and fishing harvest. Model relationships were developed from empirical field data collected over a 13-yr period. Sensitivity analyses indicated that discharge during the spawning/rearing period had a greater effect on adult density and fishing yield than did spawning/rearing temperature or winter discharge. Simulations for 100 years projected a 139% greater mean fish density under a historical flow regime (64.9 fish/ha) than that estimated for the present (27.1 fish/ha) with a sustainable fishing harvest under both flow regimes. Simulations under future climate-change-induced temperature and flow regimes with present land use projected a 69% decrease in mean fish density (8.5 fish/ha) from present and an unstable population that went extinct during 56% of the simulations. However| when simulated under a future climate-altered temperature and flow regime with historical land use| the population increased by 66% (45.0 fish/ha) from present and sustained a harvest. Our findings suggest that land-use changes may be a greater detriment to riverine fishes than projected climate change and that the combined effects of both factors may lead to local species extinction. However| the negative effects of increased temperature and precipitation associated with future global warming could be mitigated by river channel| floodplain| and watershed restoration. 4954,1999,4,2,Modelling future landslide activity based on general circulation models,Currently| global warming due to increasing concentrations of CO| and other greenhouse gases is widely accepted. Climate is an important forcing parameter of landslides and| hence| implications of climate change for landslide activity are of high concern for geomorphological research. The present paper offers a method for assessing climate change impacts on landslide frequency based on general circulation models (GCM). GCM results are downscaled with an empirical-statistical technique to derive local precipitation scenarios. These scenarios are used as input to a simple slope hydrological and stability model. The landslide is defined 'active' if simulated groundwater levels exceed a critical level established with the stability model. Recurrence intervals for landslide activity are obtained by applying a Gumbel regression to the simulated annual maximum groundwater levels. Furthermore| it is shown that indirect climate change impacts as well as changing non-climatic parameters can be important for future landslide frequencies too. The use of three different GCM experiments for the assessment of the activity of a small landslide in SE France did not show a consistent picture of future landslide frequencies. This is due to differences between the GCM experiments but might be enhanced by the limited ability of the applied downscaling technique to carry climate change signals. Finally| some possibilities of improving the approach are outlined and the need for better GCM experiments| which provide the basic input of the approach| is addressed. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5012,1999,4,4,Mountain station pressure as an indicator of climate change,Surface temperature observations have been used to infer a global warming of about 0.7 degrees K over the last century. Here| we present a new way of deriving temperature trends from observations of mountain surface pressure. From the hydrostatic equation it can be shown that a warming below the mountain increases the local pressure. This signal increases with height. The derived temperature trends from a few sites are consistent with reported regional warmings and a recent acceleration. These results provide independent confirmation of regional warming of the lower troposphere on a longer time scale than is currently available from radiosondes and satellites. 4939,1999,3,2,Multi-gas assessment of the Kyoto Protocol,The Kyoto Protocol allows reductions in emissions of several 'greenhouse' gases to be credited against a CO(2)-equivalent emissions limit| calculated using 'global warming potential' indices for each gas| Using an integrated global-systems model| it is shown that a multi-gas control strategy could greatly reduce the costs of fulfilling the Kyoto Protocol compared with a CO(2)-only strategy. Extending the Kyoto Protocol to 2100 without more severe emissions reductions shows little difference between the two strategies in climate and ecosystem effects. Under a more stringent emissions policy| the use of global warming potentials as applied in the Kyoto Protocol leads to considerably more mitigation of climate change for multi-gas strategies than for the-supposedly equivalent-CO(2)-only control| thus emphasizing the limits of global warming potentials as a tool for political decisions. 5048,1999,3,4,National health| wealth| and energy use,Great disparity exists in the distribution of wealth among nations. National well-being| as measured by such commonly accepted indicators as infant mortality| child malnutrition| life expectancy| and literacy rates correlates well with national wealth| which| in turn| correlates well with energy consumption. Developed industrial nations rank high in national well-being; however| on a per-capita basis| these nations own a disproportionate share of world wealth and consume a disproportionate share of the world's energy Economic growth correlates well with growth of energy consumption in both rich and poor nations| and| conversely| reductions in energy consumption correlate with economic decline. When energy consumption is expressed as a function of gross national product (GNP) instead of on a per-capita basis| developed nations use energy more efficiently than poorer ones. Fossil fuels furnish 90% of the world's energy (oil and gas supply 63%)| and their use has grown by 14% over the last decade (oil and gas use is up 19%). Long-range concerns about depleting fossil-fuel resources and more immediate concerns about increases in atmospheric CO2 produced by their combustion and the postulated ill effects of global warming weigh against continued increase in use of fossil fuels and favor alternative energy sources. Examination of alternatives suggests that none of the alternatives| other than possibly nuclear and hydropower (both in environmental and political disfavor)| offer hope for supplying more than a fraction of demand. Hence| either the natural limits on use of fossil fuels set by depleting resources or the setting of artificial limits in an effort to control CO2 emissions (tentatively agreed to in Kyoto and Buenos Aires) contrast starkly with the need for more energy consumption to improve the economic development of all nations and particularly the poorer ones. This paper explores these relationships and identifies some of the hard choices that lie ahead that inevitably will impact the use of oil and gas.
5089,1999,5,2,Natural variability of the Earth's environments: the last two climatic extremes (18000 +/- 2000 and 8000 +/- 1000 yrs BP),The Earth's climate is tending| at a geological scale| towards a new glacial| through an alternation of cooler/warmer episodes. However| man-induced atmospheric pollution is increasing the natural greenhouse effect which| according to models| should result in a global warming of ca. 1 degrees C to 4 degrees C within a few decades. It is therefore a priority to outline the natural variability of continental environments corresponding to a few degrees difference relative to nowadays| in order to define the continental areas at risk and identify the strictly human-induced environmental changes liable to occur in the near future. Thus| maps of the world environments during the last climatic extremes (the Last Glacial Maximum| the Holocene Optimum) corresponding respectively to -4.5 degrees C and +2 degrees C relative to present global values: based upon geological multidisciplinary data| were prepared by twelve international level quaternarists at a 1:25 000 000 scale. The major differences between the two scenarios are briefly commented. ((C) Academie des sciences / Elsevier; Paris). 2239,1999,5,3,New evidence for subtropical warming during the late Paleocene thermal maximum: Stable isotopes from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 527| Walvis Ridge,The late Paleocene thermal maximum (LPTM) was a dramatic| short-term global warming event that occurred similar to 55 Ma. Warming of high-latitude surface waters and global deep waters during the LPTM has been well documented; however| current data suggest that subtropical and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) did not change during the event. Conventional paradigms of global climate change| such as CO2-induced greenhouse warming| predict greater warming in the high latitudes than in the tropics or subtropics but| nonetheless| cannot account for the stable tropical/subtropical SSTs. We measured the stable isotope values of well-preserved late Paleocene to early Eocene planktonic foraminifera from South Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 527 to evaluate the subtropical response to the climatic and environmental changes of the LPTM. Planktonic foraminiferal delta(18)O values at Site 527 decrease by similar to 0.94 parts per thousand from pre-LPTM to excursion values| providing the first evidence for subtropical warming during the LPTM. We estimate that subtropical South Atlantic SSTs warmed by at least similar to 1 degrees - 4 degrees C| on the basis of possible changes in evaporation and precipitation. The new evidence for subtropical SST warming supports a greenhouse mechanism for global warming involving elevated atmospheric CO2 levels. 5102,1999,2,3,Nitrogen deposition effects on carbon dioxide and methane emissions from temperate peatland soils,Northern peatlands are important sources of carbon dioxide and methane emissions to the atmosphere. Increased atmospheric N deposition may have a significant impact on the emission of these greenhouse gases. We studied CO2 and CH4 emissions from untreated temperate pc at soils from a eutrophic and a mesotrophic Fen in a high N deposition area (the Netherlands) and from a mesotrophic fen in a low N deposition area (north-cast Poland). In addition| we investigated the effects of N| P and glucose amendments on the emissions of CO2 and CH4 from these soils. Nitrogen availability (extractable NH4+) in untreated pent from the high N area was 2.5-7.5 times higher than in the low N area| whereas the pH was 0.9-1.7 units lower. Using 6-week laboratory incubations of peat columns| we found that mean daily CO2 emission from untreated peat soils from the high N area was lower than that from the low N area. Both linear and multiple regression analysis shelved that CO2 emission was positively related to soil pH (r(2) = 0.64). Additional N supply led to pn reduction and to lower CO2 emission| especially in the low N peat soils. Thus| increased atmospheric N deposition lends| probably as a result of soil acidification| to fewer CO2 emission. Although glucose amendments resulted in increased CO2 and CH4 emission| we did not find evidence that this was caused by increased mineralization of native pest. Mean daily CH4-C emission was about 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than mean daily CO2-C emission. In the untreated peat soils from the high N eutrophic site| methane emission was higher than in the high N mesotrophic site and in the low N mesotrophic site. Linear regression analysis showed a positive relation between methane emission and soil fertility variables (r(2)=0.41-0.55)| whereas a multiple regression model revealed that methane emission was determined by N-related soil chemistry variables (r(2) = 0.93). Increased nutrient supply initially resulted in higher methane emission from soils of both mesotrophic sites| but there was no effect on the high N eutrophic soil. These results show that increased atmospheric N deposition leads to increased methane emission from low-fertility pent soils. However| the ultimate effect of atmospheric N deposition on trace gas emissions and thereby on global warming is determined by the balance between the ratios of the change in CO2-C emission and CH4-C emission and the ratio of their global warming potentials (1:21). 2265,1999,5,4,Nitrogen isotopic variations in the Gulf of California since the last deglaciation: Response to global climate change,High-resolution records of the nitrogen isotopic composition of organic matter (delta(15)N(org))| opal content| and opal accumulation rates from the central Gulf of California reveal large and abrupt variations during deglaciation and gradual Holocene changes coincident with climatic changes recorded in the North Atlantic. Homogenous sediments with relatively low delta(15)N(org) values and low opal content were deposited at the end of the last glacial period| during the Younger-Dryas event| and during the middle to late Holocene. In contrast| laminated sediments deposited in the two deglacial stages are characterized by very high delta(15)N(org) values (>14 parts per thousand) and opal accumulation rates (29-41 mg cm(-2) yr(-1)). Abrupt shifts in delta(15)N(org) were driven by widespread changes in the extent of suboxic subsurface waters supporting denitrification and were amplified in the central gulf record due to variations in upwelling| vertical mixing| and/or the latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. 5032,1999,3,3,Nitrogen management and the future of food: Lessons from the management of energy and carbon,The food system dominates anthropogenic disruption of the nitrogen cycle by generating excess fixed nitrogen. Excess fixed nitrogen| in various guises| augments the greenhouse effect| diminishes stratospheric ozone| promotes smog| contaminates drinking water| acidifies rain| eutrophies bays and estuaries| and stresses ecosystems. Yet| to date| regulatory efforts to limit these disruptions largely ignore the food system. There are many parallels between food and energy. Food is to nitrogen as energy is to carbon. Nitrogen fertilizer is analogous to fossil fuel. Organic agriculture and agricultural biotechnology play roles analogous to renewable energy and nuclear power in political discourse. Nutrition research resembles energy end-use analysis. Meat is the electricity of food. As the agriculture and food system evolves to contain its impacts on the nitrogen cycle| several lessons can be extracted from energy and carbon: (i) set the goal of ecosystem stabilization; (ii) search the entire production and consumption system (grain| livestock| food distribution| and diet) for opportunities to improve efficiency; (iii) implement cap and-trade systems for fixed nitrogen; (iv) expand research at the intersection of agriculture and ecology| and (v) focus on the food choices of the prosperous. There are important nitrogen-carbon links. The global increase in fixed nitrogen may be fertilizing the Earth| transferring significant amounts of carbon from the atmosphere to the biosphere| and mitigating global warming. A modern biofuels industry someday may produce biofuels from crop residues or dedicated energy crops| reducing the rate of fossil fuel use| while losses of nitrogen and other nutrients are minimized. 4916,1999,3,3,Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from vehicles,Assessment of the impact of vehicle emissions on the global environment requires accurate data concerning nitrous oxide| N2O| emissions. We report herein "real-world" N2O emissions from road vehicles in a tunnel In Wuppertal| Germany| together with "laboratory" emission measurements conducted at the Ford Motor Company using a chassis dynamometer with a standard driving cycle for 22 different cars and trucks. Consistent results were obtained from both approaches| suggesting that a good approximation of the average emission factor (g of N2O/g of CO2) = (6 + 2) x 10(-5). This corresponds to an emission rate of 16-8 mg of N2O/km for vehicles with fuel economies of 12-6 L/1110 km (20-40 mi/U.S. gal). N2O emissions from vehicles have a global warming impact| which is 1-3% of that of the CO2 emissions from vehicles. We estimate that the global vehicle fleet emits 0.18 +/- 0.06 Tg of N2O yr(-1) (0.11 +/- 0.04 Tg of N yr(-1))| which represents 2-6% of the atmospheric growth rate of this species| In addition to N2O| laboratory vehicle emission measurements of NH3| HONO| and HCN are reported. 5042,1999,3,4,Novel process for SiO2/Si selective etching using a novel gas source for preventing global warming,A novel gas source replacing fluorocarbon feed gases has been developed for preventing global warming. The novel gas source was designed to generate fluorocarbon species from polytetrafluoroethylene by CO2 laser ablation. The species generated from the gas source were introduced into an electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) plasma employing Ar gases. To characterize the gas source| CFx (x = 1-3) radical densities with and without plasmas were measured by infrared diode laser absorption spectroscopy. In the ECR plasma employing the novel gas source| CFx (x = 1-3) radical densities were estimated to be of the order of 10(12)-10(13) cm(-3). The gas source has been applied to the selective etching of SiO2 to Si using the ECR plasma. As a result| the etching characteristics by ECR plasma employing the novel gas source were equivalent to those by a conventional ECR plasma employing C4F8 gas. Therefore| this novel gas source is applicable to etching processes for preventing global warming. (C) 1999 American Vacuum Society. 5088,1999,2,4,Ocean spray and the thermodynamics of tropical cyclones,Serious gaps in knowledge about ocean spray at wind speeds over 40m/s remain difficult to fill by observation or experiment; yet refined study of the thermodynamics of Tropical Cyclones (including typhoons and hurricanes) requires assessment of the hypothesis that 'spray cooling' at extreme wind speeds may act to reduce (i) the initial temperature of saturated air rising in the eyewall and so also (ii) the input of mechanical energy into the airflow as a whole. Such progressive reductions at higher speeds could| for example| make any possible influence of future global warming on Tropical Cyclone intensification largely self-limiting. In order to help in extrapolation of knowledge on ocean spray to extreme wind speeds| a probabilistic analysis is introduced which allows for the effects of gusts| gravity and evaporation on droplet distributions| yet in other respects is as simple as possible. Preliminary indications from this simplified analysis appear to confirm the potential importance of spr ay cooling. 2300,1999,3,3,Offshore wind energy prospects,In last two years offshore wind energy is becoming a focal point of national and non national organizations particularly after the limitations of fossil fuel consumption| adopted by many developed countries after Kyoto conference at the end of 1997 on global climate change. North Europe is particularly interested in offshore for the limited land areas still available| due to the intensive use of its territory and its today high wind capacity. Really the total wind capacity in Europe could increase from the 1997 value of 4450 MW up to 40 000 MW within 2010| according the White Paper 1997 of the European Commission; a significant percentage (25%) could be sited offshore up to 10 000 MW| because of close saturation of the land sites at that time. World wind capacity could increase from the 1997 value of 7200 MW up to 60 000 MW within 2010 with a good percentage (20%) offshore 12 000 MW. In last seven years wind capacity is shallow waters of coastal areas has reached 34 MW. Five wind farms are functioning in the internal seas of Netherlands| Denmark| Sweden; however such siting is mostly to be considered as semi-offshore condition. Wind farms in real offshore sites| open seas with waves and water depth over 10 m| are now proposed in North Sea at 10-20 km off the coasts of Netherland| Denmark using large size wind turbine (1-2 MW). In 1997 an offshore proposal was supported in Netherland by Greenpeace after the OWEMES '97 seminar| held in Italy on offshore wind in the spring 1997. A review is presented in the paper of the European offshore wind programs with trends in technology| economics and siting effects. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5130,1999,4,4,On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its relationship with El Nino,The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the interannual behaviour of the MJO is related to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies| particularly El Nino| and hence whether it is predictable. The interannual behaviour of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s the activity of the MJO was consistently lower than during the latter part of the record. This may be related either to inadequacies in the data coverage| particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations| or to the real effects of a decadal time-scale warming in the tropical SSTs. The teleconnection patterns between interannual variations in MJO activity and SST show only a weak| barely significant| influence of El Nino in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis| a 4-member ensemble of 45-year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadAM2a)| forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93| has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HadAM2a is known to give a reasonable simulation of the MJO| and the extended record provided by this ensemble of integrations allows a more robust investigation of the predictability of MJO activity than was possible with the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The results have shown that| for the uncoupled system| with the atmosphere being driven by imposed SSTs| there is no reproducibility of the activity of the MJO from year-to-year. The interannual behaviour of the MJO is not controlled by the phase of El Nino and would appear to be mainly chaotic in character. However| the model results have confirmed the low-frequency| decadal time-scale variability of MJO activity seen in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The activity of the MJO is consistently lower in all realizations prior to the mid-1970s| suggesting that the MJO may become more active as tropical SSTs increase. This result may have implications for the effects of global warming on the coupled tropical atmosphere-ocean system. Since the observed and simulated MJOs display clear seasonality in their occurrence| the relationship with interannual changes in the mean seasonal cycle of the tropical circulation has also been investigated. In contrast to the MJO| the interannual variability in the mean seasonal cycle is reproducible and influenced by the phase of El Nino. The implications of these results for the predictability of the tropical atmosphere-ocean system are discussed| particularly with reference to the strong El Nino event of 1997 which developed in association with a period of intense MJO activity. 4911,1999,4,4,On the sensitivity of global warming experiments to the parametrisation of sub-grid scale ocean mixing,An ocean general circulation model coupled to an energy-moisture balance atmosphere model is used to investigate the sensitivity of global warming experiments to the parametrisation of sub-grid scale ocean mixing. The climate sensitivity of the coupled model using three different parametrisations of subgrid scale mixing is 3 degrees C for a doubling of CO2 (6 degrees C for a quadrupling of CO2). This suggests that the ocean has only a weak feedback on global mean surface air temperature although significant regional differences| notably at high latitudes| exist with different sub-grid scale parametrisations. In the experiment using the Gent and McWilliams parametrisation for mixing associated with mesoscale eddies| an enhancement of the surface response in the Southern Ocean is found. This enhancement is largely due to the existence of more realistic sea-ice in the climatological control integration and the subsequent enhanced ice-albedo feedback upon warming. In accordance with earlier analyses| the Gent and McWilliams scheme decreases the global efficiency of ocean heat uptake. During the transient phase of all experiments| the North Atlantic overturning initially weakened but ultimately recovered| surpassing its former strength. This suggests that in the region around the North Atlantic the ocean acts as a negative feedback on local warming during the transient phase but a positive feedback at equilibrium. During the transient phase of the experiments with a more sophisticated and realistic parametrisation of sub-grid scale mixing| warmed Atlantic water was found to penetrate at depth into the Arctic| consistent with recent observations in the region. 4909,1999,2,3,On the sensitivity of projected oceanic thermal expansion to the parameterisation of sub-grid scale ocean mixing,A coupled model of intermediate complexity is used to examine the importance of the parameterisation of sub-grid scale ocean mixing on the global mean steric sea level rise in global warming simulations. It is shown that when mixing associated with mesoscale eddies is treated in a more physically realistic way than the commonly used horizontal/vertical scheme| quasi-equilibrium projected steric sea level rise is more than two times lower in both 2 x CO2 and 4 x CO2 climates. This occurs despite the invariance of the coupled model climate sensitivity to the particular sub-grid scale mixing scheme employed. During the early phase of the transient integrations thermal expansion differences are smaller| although experiments using the Gent and McWilliams parameterisation for mixing associated with mesoscale eddies approach equilibrium more rapidly once the radiative forcing is held fixed. This reduced expansion commitment reflects a greater decoupling of the surface ocean from: the deep ocean| due to a reduction in spurious high latitude convection that occurs when a horizontal/vertical mixing scheme is used. 5046,1999,4,4,Optimal detection of global warming using temperature profiles: A methodology,Optimal fingerprinting is applied to estimate the amount of time it would take to detect warming by increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in monthly averages of temperature profiles over the Indian Ocean. A simple radiative-convective model is used to define the pattern of the warming signal| and the first 100 yr of the 1000yr control run of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-oceanic global climate model is used to estimate the natural variability of the upper-air temperatures. The signal is assumed to be the difference in two epochs of data| each epoch consisting of 12 consecutive months of monthly average temperature profiles. When the variabilities of monthly averages are assumed independent of each other| the difference in August upper-air temperatures yields the strongest fingerprint| giving a time span for a one-sigma detection of 22 yr. When correlations of natural variability between months are considered| the one-sigma detection time is 10 yr. If only an annual average profile is used| the timescale for one-sigma detection increases to 14 yr. These timescales depend on subjective judgments of the details of the model-predicted pattern of global warming. In general| using upper-air temperatures adds approximately two independent pieces of information in detecting global warming for every surface-air temperature measurement| most likely due to the expected overall pattern of tropospheric warming-stratospheric cooling. Finally| testing climate models with data must be undertaken in order to understand the uncertainties in model-predicted global warming patterns and the predictive capability of models in general. 2258,1999,4,3,Pacific northwest climate sensitivity simulated by a regional climate model driven by a GCM. Part II: 2xCO(2) simulations,Global climate change due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases has stimulated numerous studies and discussions about its possible impacts on water resources. Climate scenarios generated by climate models at spatial resolutions ranging from about 50 km to 400 km may not provide enough spatial specificity for use in impact assessment. In Parts I and II of this paper. the spatial specificity issue is addressed by examining what information on mesoscale and small-scale spatial features can be gained by using a regional climate model with a subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation and land surface cover| driven by a general circulation model. Numerical experiments have been performed to simulate the present-day climatology and the climate conditions corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. This paper describes and contrasts the large-scale and mesoscale features of the greenhouse warming climate signals simulated by the general circulation modal and regional climate model over the Pacific Northwest. Results indicate that changes in the large-scale circulation exhibit strong seasonal variability. There is an average warming of about 2 degrees C| and precipitation generally increases over the Pacific Northwest and decreases over California. The precipitation signal over the Pacific Northwest is only statistically significant during spring| when both the change in the large-scale circulation and increase in water vapor enhance the moisture convergence toward the north Pacific coast. The combined effects of surface temperature and precipitation changes are such that snow cover is reduced by up to 50% on average| causing large changes in the seasonal runoff. This paper also describes the high spatial resolution (1.5 km) climate signals simulated by the regional climate model. Reductions in snow cover of 50%-90% are found in areas near the snow line of the control simulation. Analyses of the variations of the climate signals with surface elevation ranging from sea level to 4000 m over two mountain ranges in the Pacific Northwest show that because of changes in the alitude of the freezing level| strong elevation dependency is found in the surface temperature| rainfall. snowfall| snow cover| and runoff signals. 4974,1999,5,4,Palaeofloristic and palaeovegetational changes across the Paleocene/Eocene boundary in northern South America,A floral change occurring in northern South America at the Paleocene/Eocene boundary is analysed using palynological data. The sequence studied is an outcrop from the Venezuelan Maracaibo basin| deposited in shallow marine to coastal environments without apparent stratigraphic breaks. Significant pollen and spore counts from 237 samples were studied stratigraphically and statistically in order to compare Paleocene and Eocene palaeofloras and palaeoecological trends. The Late Paleocene/Early Eocene transition is the boundary between two floras which differ both qualitatively and quantitatively. However| the change is not sudden but stepped and gradual. Paleocene taxa seem to be of pantropical distribution| whereas Eocene assemblages are more restricted to the Neotropics. The global warming well documented elsewhere is proposed as the major cause for these changes. Trends in sporomorph diversity in this record appear to track changes in temperature documented in isotopic records from temperate regions. The extinct parent plant of Echitriporites trianguliformis is tentatively proposed to be intolerant to high temperatures| because of its absence during the Early Eocene warm phase. Palaeoecologically| although marsh and back-mangrove swamps dominated both Late Paleocene and Early Eocene assemblages| their taxonomic compositions were different| especially in the inland marsh forests. Mangrove components are scarce or absent through the whole sequence studied| suggesting the absence of these communities during the time-interval analysed. A palaeoecological subdivision into assemblage zones was not possible; instead| a recurrent pattern suggesting palynological cycles was observed. However| palynocycles could not be studied in detail due to the lack of knowledge of botanical affinities for many of the taxa involved and the apparent absence of mangrove assemblages. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5077,1999,5,3,Palynological record of an early-mid Holocene mangrove in eastern Venezuela. Implications for sea-level rise and disturbance history,The purpose of the present report is to document the occurrence of a Holocene mangrove community on the southern Caribbean margin| and to build up a preliminary sea-level curve for Venezuela. This is accomplished through pollen analysis of a buried coastal peat layer at 9.4 m depth| as well as anatomical analysis and radiocarbon dating of an overlying wood fragment. The pollen assemblage from the peat layer is analogous to those found in present-day Caribbean mangroves. The wood comes from a 6|960+/-70 year old Rhizophora tree. This is used as evidence of a in situ mangrove community and| consequently| of the position of sea level at that time. A tentative curve for sea-level rise is presented| by compilation of radiocarbon dates on mangrove peats and corals. This study is a contribution to the evaluation of recent sea-level increase connected to the global warming| its main value being the possibility of recognizing the natural trend in sea-level rise| and separate it from the human-induced effect. 5119,1999,2,4,Past and present permafrost as an indicator of climate change,The permafrost history of the high northern latitudes over the last two million years indicates that perennially frozen ground formed and thawed repeatedly| probably in close synchronicity with the climate changes that led to the expansion and subsequent shrinkage of continental ice sheets. The early stages of the Pleistocene are the least known and the changes that occurred in the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene are the best known. Evidence that permafrost is degrading in response to the current global warming trend is difficult to ascertain. The dearest signals are probably provided by changes in permafrost distribution in the sub-Arctic regions| at the extreme southern fringes of the discontinuous permafrost zone. 5063,1999,4,4,Performance of NCAR RegCM in the simulation of June and January climates over eastern Asia and the high-resolution effect of the model,The performance of the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) for east Asia| where topography and shoreline are rather complex| is examined through experiments to simulate the climate during 1 month using ECMWF data as lateral boundary conditions| before its application in the nested GCM/RegCM method to predict future climate changes caused by global warming. In this study| June and January climates| in which typical precipitation phenomena in Japan such as "bai-u" and winter snow are observed| are simulated using the model with lateral resolutions of 50 km (Base case) and 25 km (High case). The resolution effects of the model are also examined using a series of sensitivity studies. The main results are as follows: (1) In June and January| while cyclones passing over the inner region tend to be more intensified in the model (sometimes unrealistically) than those observed| weak cyclones in the outer region are usually not well simulated in the model. This seems to be due to the stronger control by the lateral boundary conditions| Anticyclones are stronger in the simulation than those observed| especially in the inner region| which leads to overestimation of the sea level pressure there. (2) The model yielded a lower surface air temperature than that observed| especially in January| which may depend on the performance of BATS or the radiative transfer scheme. (3) The model tends to overestimate the regional mean precipitation in the inner region and underestimate it in the outer region in June| while it was slightly underestimated in the inner and outer regions in January. Overestimations are caused by overdeveloped simulated cyclones or by the large amount of precipitation on the unrealistic topography such as a steep slope facing a moist tongue. Underestimation is due to stronger control by the lateral boundary conditions that prevent the development of cyclones or fronts. (4) In the high-resolution models| weak cyclones in the outer region and anticyclones in the inner region are more realistically simulated| although they do not greatly improve the model results in the Base case. Precipitation is increased by similar to 10-15% of that in the Base case in the inner region in June and January due to enhancement of cyclones or fronts| where the high-resolution effect of topography is only similar to 1/5 of the total high-resolution effect of the model in June. In January| for northwestern Japan| high model resolution contributes to the correction (increase) of precipitation there. Generally| the high-resolution effect of the model on the surface air temperature does not systematically improve the results but does vary locally by the improvement of model topography. To improve the model results| the lateral boundary should be moved outward (the domain of the model should be extended to the west and south) and/or the precipitation scheme should be improved| including the adjustment of parameters. BATS or the radiative transfer scheme should be improved. More recommendations for the improvement of the model are proposed. 2274,1999,2,4,Photosynthetic adjustment in field-grown ponderosa pine trees after six years of exposure to elevated CO2,Photosynthesis of tree seedlings is generally enhanced during short-term exposure to elevated atmospheric CO2| but longer-term photosynthetic responses are often more variable because they are affected by morphological| biochemical and physiological feedback mechanisms that regulate carbon assimilation to meet sink demand. To examine biochemical and morphological factors that might regulate the long-term photosynthetic response of field-grown trees to elevated CO2| we grew ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) trees in open-top chambers for six years in native soil at ambient CO2 (35 Pa) and elevated CO2 (70 Pa) at a site near Placerville| CA. Trees were well watered and exposed to natural light and ambient temperature. At the end of the sixth growing season at elevated CO2| net photosynthesis was enhanced 53%| despite reductions in photosynthetic capacity. The positive net photosynthetic response to elevated CO2 reflected greater relative increases in Rubisco sensitivity compared with the decreases resulting from biochemical adjustments. Analyses of net photosynthetic rate versus internal CO2 partial pressure curves indicated that reductions in photosynthetic capacity in response to elevated CO2 were the result of significant reductions in maximum photosynthetic rate (20%)| Rubisco carboxylation capacity (36%)| and electron transport capacity (21%). Decreased photosynthetic capacity was accompanied by reductions in various photosynthetic components| including total chlorophyll (24%)| Rubisco protein content (38%)| and mass-based leaf nitrogen concentration (14%). Net photosynthesis was unaffected by morphological adjustments because there was no change in leaf mass per unit area at elevated CO2. An apparent positive response of photosynthetic adjustment in the elevated CO2 treatment was the redistribution of N within the photosynthetic system to balance Rubisco carboxylation and electron transport capacities. We conclude that trees| without apparent limitations to root growth| may exhibit photosynthetic adjustment responses in the field after long-term exposure to elevated CO2. 4904,1999,4,2,Physical aspects of the greenhouse effect and global warming,According to the simplest model of the earth's radiative balance| global warming will occur with certainty as humankind increases its production and consumption of nonsolar energy. This prediction is revisited| using a broader model that allows the greenhouse effect to be considered. The new model predicts a global warming of Delta T-E =(114 K)epsilon| where epsilon is the rate of surface energy release in units of the average incident solar radiation| 342 W m(-2)| and Delta T-E is the average temperature rise at the earth's surface. Present values of these quantities| excluding geothermal sources| are epsilon = 0.69 x 10(-4) and Delta T-E = 7.9 mK. The model assigns a small number of optical parameters to the atmosphere and surface and qualifies the simple warming prediction: It is rigorous only if parameters other than epsilon are unchanged. The model is not complex and should serve as an aid to an elementary understanding of global warming. (C) 1999 American Association of Physics Teachers. 4910,1999,2,4,Physiological disturbances at critically high temperatures: A comparison between stenothermal Antarctic and eurythermal temperate eelpouts (Zoarcidae),The effect of gradually increased water temperature on the metabolism of temperate eelpout from the North Sea (Zoarces viviparus) and Antarctic eelpout (Pachycara brachycephalum) was investigated. Standard metabolic rate (SMR) was similar in cold-adapted P| brachycephalum and cold-acclimated Z| viviparus in the low temperature range. This indicates that Antarctic eelpout show no metabolic cold adaptation las originally defined by Wohlschlag); however| they do show a compensatory increase of oxygen consumption compared to warm-acclimated eelpout| SMR increased more strongly with rising temperature in P| brachycephalum than in Z| viviparus| which is reflected in a higher Arrhenius activation energy for oxygen consumption (99+/-5 kJ mol(-1)| versus 55+/-3 kJ mol(-1) for cold-acclimated Z| viviparus; means +/- S|D|)| The intracellular pH in the white musculature of Z| viviparus follows alphastat regulation over the whole investigated temperature range and dropped at a rate of -0.016 pH units per degrees C between 3 degrees C and 24 degrees C. In Antarctic eelpout white muscle pH declined at a rate of -0.015 pH units per degrees C between 0 degrees C and 3 degrees C| but deviated from alphastat at higher temperatures| indicating that thermal stress leads to acid-base disturbances in this species. The upper critical temperature limit (Tc(II); characterised by a transition to anaerobic metabolism) was found to be between 21 degrees C and 24 degrees C for Z| viviparus and around 9 degrees C for P| brachycephalum| In both species a rise of succinate concentration in the liver tissue turned out to be the most useful indicator of Tc(II)| Obviously| liver is more sensitive to heat stress than is white muscle| Accordingly| the energy status of white muscle is not diminished at Tc(II)| Heat-induced hyperglycaemia was observed in Antarctic eelpout (at 9 degrees C and 10 degrees C)| but not in common eelpout| Based on our results and on literature data| impaired respiration in combination with circulatory failure is suggested as the final cause of heat death. Our data suggest that the southern distribution limit of Zoarces viviparus is correlated with the limit of thermal tolerance. Therefore| it can be anticipated that global warming would cause a shift in the distribution of this species. 2284,1999,2,4,Phytobenthos and phytoplankton as potential indicators of climate change in mountain lakes and ponds: a HPLC-based pigment approach,Shallow mountain lakes and ponds may function as reference systems for monitoring the effects of global climate change. A survey of phytobenthos and phytoplankton communities was conducted dong an altitudinal gradient of Canadian Rocky Mountain lakes and ponds to relate patterns in algal abundance and community composition to catchment and climate-related variables. Algal abundance and community composition were quantified using pigments as analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Regression analyses revealed that the abundance of rock-attached algae (epilithon) was negatively correlated (r(2) = 0.54| p < 0.001) to lake elevation and positively correlated to conductivity and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content (r(2) = 0.52| p(cond.) < 0.03| p(DOC) < 0.01). Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that elevation| conductivity| and DOC were also significant predictors of epilithon community composition. Epilithic diatoms (diatoxanthin diadinoxanthin| fucoxanthin) declined disproportionately with increasing water transparency and decreasing chemical concentrations. in contrast| patterns in sediment-dwelling algal (epipelon) abundance and community composition were not well-explained by the suite of measured environmental variables. Phytoplankton community composition| but not abundance| was best predicted by zooplankton biomass and elevation as cryptophytes (alloxanthin) were favored in low-elevation| montane lakes and ponds containing abundant zooplankton. Also| elevated conductivity and low DOC content were associated with a compositional shift away from planktonic cryptophytes and green algae (lutein violaxanthin) towards siliceous algae (fucoxanthin| chlorophyll c) and colonial cyanobacteria (mycoxanthophyll). These comparative results corroborate experimental findings that suggest epilithon is regulated by DOG| inorganic nutrients| and exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UV) in alpine littoral habitats. Thus| epilithon appears better suited than either phytoplankton or epipelon as a bioindicator of climatically induced variations in the abiotic environments of shallow mountain lakes and ponds. 5125,1999,2,3,Plantation forestry in Brazil: the potential impacts of climatic change,Most climatic changes predicted to occur in Brazil would reduce yields of silvicultural plantations| mainly through increased frequency and severity of droughts brought on by global warming and by reduction of water vapor sources in Amazonia caused by deforestation. Some additional negative effects could result from changes in temperature| and positive effects could result from CO(2) enrichment. The net effects would be negative| forcing the country to expand plantations onto less-productive land| requiring increased plantation area land consequent economic losses) out of proportion to the climatic change itself. These impacts would affect carbon sequestration and storage consequences of any plans for subsidizing silviculture as a global warming mitigation option. Climate change can be expected to increase the area of plantations needed to supply projected internal demand for and exports of end products from Brazil. June-July-August (dry season) precipitation reductions indicated by simulations reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) correspond to rainfall declines in this critical season of approximately 34% in Amazonia| 39% in Southern Brazil and 61% in the Northeast. As an example| if rainfall in Brazilian plantation areas (most of which are now in Southern Brazil) were to decline by 50%| the area needed in 2050 would expand by an estimated 38% over the constant climate case| bringing the total plantation area to 4.5 times the 1991 area. These large areas of additional plantations imply substantial social and environmental impacts. Further addition of plantation area as a global warming response option would augment these impacts| indicating the need for caution in evaluating carbon sequestration proposals. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 4986,1999,2,4,Possible impacts of global warming on the hydrology of the Ogallala aquifer region,The Ogallala or High Plains aquifer provides water for about 20% of the irrigated land in the United States. About 20 km(3) (16.6 million acre-feet) of water are withdrawn annually from this aquifer. In general| recharge has not compensated for withdrawals since major irrigation development began in this region in the 1940s. The mining of the Ogallala has been pictured as an analogue to climate change in that many GCMs predict a warmer and drier future for this region. In this paper we attempt to anticipate the possible impacts of climate change on the sustainability of the aquifer as a source of water for irrigation and other purposes in the region. We have applied HUMUS| the Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S. to the Missouri and Arkansas-White-Red water resource regions that overlie the Ogallala. We have imposed three general circulation model (GISS| UKTR and BMRC) projections of future climate change on this region and simulated the changes that may be induced in water yields (runoff plus lateral flow) and ground water recharge. Each GCM was applied to HUMUS at three levels of global mean temperature (GMT) to represent increasing severity of climate change (a surrogate for time). HUMUS was also run at three levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration (hereafter denoted by [CO2]) in order to estimate the impacts of direct CO2 effects on photosynthesis and evapotranspiration. Since the UKTR and GISS GCMs project increased precipitation in the Missouri basin| water yields increase there. The BMRC GCM predicts sharply decreased precipitation and| hence| reduced water yields. Precipitation reductions are even greater in the Arkansas basin under BMRC as are the consequent water yield losses. GISS and UKTR climates lead to only moderate yield losses in the Arkansas. CO2-fertilization reverses these losses and yields increase slightly. CO2 fertilization increases recharge in the base (no climate change) case in both basins. Recharge is reduced under all three GCMs and severities of climate change. 2225,1999,2,3,Potential climate chance impacts on mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest,Global climate change due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has serious potential impacts on water resources in the Pacific Northwest. Climate scenarios produced by general circulation models (GCMs) do not provide enough spatial specificity for studying water resources in mountain watersheds. This study uses dynamical downscaling with a regional climate model (RCM) driven by a GCM to simulate climate change scenarios. The RCM uses a subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation and land surface cover to simulate surface climate at the spatial scale suitable for the representation of topographic effects over mountainous regions. Numerical experiments have been performed to simulate the present-day climatology and the climate conditions corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. The RCM results indicate an average warming of about 2.5 degrees C| and precipitation generally increases over the Pacific Northwest and decreases over California. These simulations were used to drive a distributed hydrology model of two snow dominated watersheds| the American River and Middle Fork Flathead| in the Pacific Northwest to obtain more detailed estimates of the sensitivity of water resources to climate change. Results show that as more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow in the warmer climate| there is a 60 percent reduction in snowpack and a significant shift in the seasonal pattern of streamflow in the American River. Much less drastic changes are found in the Middle Fork Flathead where snowpack is only reduced by 18 percent and the seasonal pattern of streamflow remains intact. This study shows that the impacts of climate change on water resources are highly region specific. Furthermore| under the specific climate change scenario| the impacts are largely driven by the warming trend rather than the precipitation trend| which is small. 2276,1999,4,3,Potential effects of gas hydrate on human welfare,For almost 30 years. serious interest has been directed toward natural gas hydrate| a crystalline solid composed of water and methane| as a potential (i) energy resource| (ii) factor in global climate change| and (iii) submarine geohazard| Although each of these issues can affect human welfare| only (iii) is considered to be of immediate importance. Assessments of gas hydrate as an energy resource have often been overly optimistic| based in part on its very high methane content and on its worldwide occurrence in continental margins. Although these attributes are attractive| geologic settings| reservoir properties| and phase-equilibria considerations diminish the energy resource potential of natural gas hydrate. The possible role of gas hydrate in global climate change has been often overstated. Although methane is a "greenhouse" gas in the atmosphere| much methane from dissociated gas hydrate may never reach the atmosphere| but rather may be converted to carbon dioxide and sequestered by the hydrosphere/biosphere before reaching the atmosphere. Thus| methane from gas hydrate may have little opportunity to affect global climate change. However| submarine geohazards (such as sediment instabilities and slope failures on local and regional scales| leading to debris flows| slumps| slides| and possible tsunamis) caused by gas-hydrate dissociation are of immediate and increasing importance as humankind moves to exploit seabed resources in ever-deepening waters of coastal oceans. The vulnerability of gas hydrate to temperature and sea level changes enhances the instability of deep-water oceanic sediments| and thus human activities and installations in this setting can be affected. 4947,1999,4,4,Potential role of solar variability as an agent for climate change,Numerical experiments have been carried out with a two-dimensional sector averaged global climate model in order to assess the potential impact of solar variability on the Earth's surface temperature from 1700 to 1992. This was done by investigating the model response to the variations in solar radiation caused by the changes in the Earth's orbital elements| as well as by the changes intrinsic to the Sun. In the absence of a full physical theory able to explain the origin of the observed total solar irradiance variations| three different total solar irradiance reconstructions have been used. A total solar irradiance change due to the photospheric effects incorporated in the Willson and Hudson (1988) parameterization| and the newly reconstructed solar total irradiance variations from the solar models of Hoyt and Schatten (1993) and Lean et al. (1995). Our results indicate that while the influence of the orbital forcing on the annual and global mean surface temperature is negligible at the century time scale| the monthly mean response to this forcing can be quite different from one month to another. The modelled global warming due to the three investigated total solar irradiance reconstructions is insufficient to reproduce the observed 20th century warming. Nevertheless| our simulated surface temperature response to the changes in the Sun's radiant energy output suggests that the Gleissberg cycle (approximate to 88 years) solar forcing should not be neglected in explaining the century-scale climate variations. Finally| spectral analysis seems to point out that the 10- to 12-year oscillations found in the recorded Northern Hemisphere temperature variations from 1700 to 1992 could be unrelated to the solar forcing. Such a result could indicate that the eleven-year period which is frequently found in climate data might be related to oscillations in the atmosphere or oceans| internal to the climate system. 5026,1999,3,3,Proper utilization of solar energy in Bangladesh: effect on the environment| food supply and the standard of living,The only really sustainable form of energy is solar energy. The densely populated tropical countries can do very well from this completely sustainable energy source without any novel technologies. Most of the commercial energy used world-wide is supplied by using nonrenewable resources. Environmental damage-global warming| ozone hole| noise| chemical and radioactive waste-is due to high energy use. Environmental deterioration is a direct consequence of wealth generated and sustained by extremely cheap fossil fuel. The price of fossil fuel does not include the cost for the deterioration of the environment. We show in this paper that even a densely populated country like Bangladesh can attain a high standard of living by a proper utilization of solar energy. We suggest that poor tropical countries should mobilize their resources to develop solar technology. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2288,1999,2,4,Public health consequences of global climate change in the United States - Some regions may suffer disproportionately,Current risk assessments of the likely regional health impacts of global climate change (GCC) are hindered by two factors. First| dose-response relationships between weather parameters and many of the likely health effects have not been developed| and second| reliable estimates of future regional climates across the United Slates are still beyond the scope of current modeling efforts. Consequently| probabilistic risk estimates of most of the likely regional health impacts of GCC have such a high degree of uncertainty that their usefulness to health officials dealing with regional issues is very limited. With the numerous pressures on today's health care systems| it is understandable that the possible consequences of GCC have received scant attention from regional health care decision makers. Indeed| the consensus among this community appears to be that any increases in health effects associated with GCC will be easily handled by the current health care system. However| such a position may be naive as the potential exists that an unequal distribution of such effects could overwhelm some regions| whereas others may feel little or no impact. This review of the likely regional impacts of GCC has been structured as a semianalytical look at this issue of distributional effects. Because of the lack of dose-response information and reliable estimates of future regional climates| however| it takes a historical perspective. That is| it assumes that the quality and quantity of health risks a region faces under GCC will be directly related to its recent history of health risks from warm weather/climate-related diseases as well as to the size| characteristics| and distribution of the sensitive subpopulations currently residing within its borders. The approach is semiquantitative; however| it uses national data gathered on a regional level and as such should only be used to generate a hypothesis rather than test it. When applied to the United States| its outcome leads to the hypothesis that if indeed history repeals itself| some states or regions may be more greatly affected by GCC than others| not only because historically they are more prone to summer weather/climate-related diseases| but also because they contain a greater proportion of the sensitive subpopulations in the United States. 5008,1999,3,3,PVC-plastisols - Problem solvers in the automotive industry,Ecobalance calculations confirm the competitiveness of PVC plastisols for automotive underbody coatings when ecological criteria ave considered as e.g. energy consumption or global warming potential. The consideration of risk potentials during production| processing| use and waste management reveal that PVC underbody systems and their alternatives have not shown special problems up to now. The residual components of automotive underbody coatings are safely controlled with regard to metal recycling and conversion of the light shredder residues. 2293,1999,2,4,Quantifying the impact of global climate change on potential natural vegetation,Impacts of climate change on vegetation are often summarized in biome maps| representing the potential natural vegetation class for each cell of a grid under current and changed climate. The amount of change between two biome maps is usually measured by the fraction of cells that change class| or by the kappa statistic. Neither measure takes account of varying structural and Aoristic dissimilarity among biomes. An attribute-based measure of dissimilarity (Delta V) between vegetation classes is therefore introduced. Delta V is based on (a) the relative importance of different plant life forms (e.g| tree| grass) in each class| and (b) a series of attributes (e.g. evergreen-deciduous| tropical-nontropical) of each life form with a weight for each attribute. Delta V is implemented here for the most used biome model| BIOME 1 (Prentice| I. C. et al.| 1992). Multidimensional scaling of pairwise Delta V values verifies that the suggested importance values and attribute weights lead to a reasonable pattern of dissimilarities among biomes. Dissimilarity between two maps (Delta V) is obtained by area-weighted averaging of Delta V over the model grid. Using Delta V| present global biome distribution from climatology is compared with anomaly-based scenarios for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (2 x CO2)| and for extreme glacial and interglacial conditions. All scenarios are obtained from equilibrium simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. The 2 x CO2 simulations are the widely used OSU and GFDL runs from the 1980's| representing models with low and high climate sensitivity| respectively. The palaeoclimate simulations were made with CCM1| with sensitivity similar to GFDL. Delta V values for the comparisons of 2 x CO2 with present climate are similar to values for the comparisons of the last interglacial and mid-Holocene with present climate. However| the two simulated 2 x CO2 cases are much more like each other than they are to the simulated interglacial cases. The largest Delta V values were between the last glacial maximum and all other cases| including the present. These examples illustrate the potential of Delta V in comparing the impacts of different climate change scenarios| and the possibility of calibrating climate change impacts against a palaeoclimatic benchmark. 4972,1999,2,4,Recent abatement of easterly winds in the northern Adriatic,Easterly winds from the northern Adriatic contribute| together with atmospheric depressions| and the often decisive southerly winds from the southern and middle Adriatic| to produce damaging sea surges in the Gulf of Venice. A new statistical analysis of 3-hourly wind records from Trieste for the period 1951-1996| has shown a clear decline in the frequency and strength of Bora and other easterlies. This abatement is not accompanied by a strengthening of winds from other directions| but by more frequent calm situations (from 26% of total observations in the 19509| to 44% during the last 10 years| and even to over 60% during the early 1980s). Similar (although weaker) declining trends for the easterlies have been recorded at other stations in the northern Adriatic (Ronchi| Venice). An inspection of previously published data from Trieste suggests that such trends may have been going on| possibly with minor fluctuations| since at least the beginning of regular instrumental records| in the late 18608. Such changes in wind pattern| which have favourable effects on the frequency of coastal flooding| may be due| at least in part| to interdecadal climate variability. However| the persistence of certain trends suggests a climatic shift| with| in particular| less-frequent situations| with strong atmospheric pressure gradients between highs in central/eastern Europe and lows in southern Italy or in the Adriatic area. Such situations may be a consequence of recent global warming and of less-frequent drifts of polar cold air towards middle latitudes. Copyright (C) 1999 Royal Meteorological Society. 5030,1999,3,4,Refrigeration with electrolytic and immiscible liquid-liquid systems,Due to environmental concerns| new refrigerants are urgently needed to meet the refrigeration needs in the coming century. Two novel absorption refrigeration systems are considered herewith (1) the mixed-solvent electrolytes| and (2) mixtures exhibiting liquid-liquid immiscible phase separations as working fluids. When properly designed| they can avoid the global warming and ozone depletion pitfalls usually associated with the chlorofluorcarbon refrigerants. Electrolytic systems such as water-lithium bromide-ethylene glycol| and ammonia-sodium thiocyanate mixtures can serve as cooling media in an absorption refrigeration cycle with salts as absorbents and water (or ammonia) as refrigerants. The cycle efficiency (expressed in terms of the coefficient of performance-COP) plays a major role in determining their economical viability. Tn this paper| we study the desirable molecular characteristics that the salt systems should possess in order to yield high COP. We set out to answer the questions: how do we select and screen electrolytic mixtures as working fluids? and what molecular properties impact on design and efficiency? We shall apply an accurate theory| namely| the mean-spherical approach (MSA) to electrolytes to model the activities of the salt solutions. The results are checked with available data to ascertain its accuracy. Predictions can then be made on the performance of electrolytic working fluids in applications such as air-conditioning and refrigeration. Next| for mixtures of chemical solvents that form liquid-liquid immiscibility gaps| a Maxwell cycle can be constructed to generate refrigeration. In order for this class of solvents to work| a number of practical and thermodynamic considerations must be satisfied. We examine several functional criteria that are needed to operate the cycle: the first is concerned with the free energy-of-mixing behavior; the second| the pattern of the immiscibility gaps; and the last| most importantly| the influence of activity coefficients on absorption. This type of refrigeration| not yet commercially developed| promises to be highly economical due to hardware savings (elimination of the condenser)| and energy savings (no need to supply the latent heats of evaporation). (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2259,1999,2,4,Regional cloud cover change associated with global climate change: Case studies for three regions of the United States,Land-based observations of cloud cover. for the period 1900-87 and averaged over three geographical regions of the United States (coastal southwest| coastal northeast| and southern plains). show strong positive correlations with one estimate of global mean surface temperature| a finding consistent with prior investigations that suggest cloud cover over land has increased during global warm periods relative to cold periods. it is also found that the strengths of three permanent high/low pressure systems (North Pacific high| Icelandic low| anti Azores high) are negatively correlated with global mean surface temperature| suggesting a possible connection between regional cloud cover| for certain locations| and the strengths of adjacent high/low pressure systems. Specifically| for the regions considered it is suggested that the coastal southwest cloud cover is related to changes in the strength of the subtropical North Pacific high| that For the southern plains also to the strength of the North Pacific high| and that for the coastal northeast to the strength of the Icelandic low. Thus the climate-induced change in cloud cover for certain regions appears related| at least in part| to climate-induced change in the strengths of adjacent high/low pressure systems| and plausible physical explanations for this relation are provided for the three regions that have been studied. This does not| of course| provide a direct physical cause-and-effect explanation for the changes in regional cloud cover| because the mechanisms that cause the intensities of the high/low pressure systems to change are not understood. 5013,1999,4,4,Relationship between soils and Amazon forest biomass: A landscape-scale study,Above-ground dry biomass of living trees including palms was estimated in 65 l ha plots spanning a 1000 km(2) landscape in central Amazonia. The study area was located on heavily weathered| nutrient-poor soils that are widespread in the Amazon region. Biomass values were derived by measuring the diameter-at-breast-height (DBH) of all greater than or equal to 10 cm trees in each plot| then using an allometric equation and correction factor for small trees to estimate total tree biomass. Detailed information on soil texture| organic carbon| available water capacity| pH| macro- and micro-nutrients| and trace elements was collected from soil surface samples (0-20 cm) in each plot| while slope was measured with a clinometer. Biomass estimates varied more than two-fold| from 231 to 492 metric tons ha(-1)| with a mean of 356 +/- 47 tons ha(-1). Simple correlations with stringent (p < 0.006) Bonferroni corrections suggested that biomass was positively associated with total N| total exchangeable bases| K+| Mg2+| clay| and organic C in soils| and negatively associated with Zn+| aluminum saturation| and sand. An ordination analysis revealed one major and several minor soil gradients in the study area| with the main gradient discriminating sites with varying proportions of clay (with clayey soils having higher concentrations of total N| organic C| most cations| and lower aluminum saturation and less sand). A multiple regression analysis revealed that the major clay-nutrient gradient was the only significant predictor| with the model explaining 32.3% of the total variation in biomass. Results of the analysis suggest that soil-fertility parameters can account for a third or more of the variation in above-ground biomass in Amazonian terra-firme forests. We suggest that| because the conversion of forest to pasture tends to reduce the nitrogen| clay| organic carbon| and nutrient contents of soils| forests that regenerate on formerly cleared lands may have lower biomass than the original forest| especially in areas with low soil fertility. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5055,1999,2,4,Remarkable waxing| waning| and wandering of populations of Mimulus guttatus: An unexpected example of global warming,The purpose of this study was to observe the dynamics of a meta-population of Mimulus guttatus. Changes in size and location of 16 original populations and the new populations established in their vicinities in Big Cottonwood Canyon| Salt Lake County| Utah| were observed for 25 yr. Twenty-three new populations appeared. Seven original populations and 13 new populations had become extinct by the end of the observation period in 1996. Many populations died out and were reestablished| often repeatedly| during the observation period. Altogether there were 54 population disappearances and 34 reappearances. Many populations changed size as much as 100-fold or more from year to year. There were spectacular examples of populations expanding to fill newly available| large habitats. Frequent extinctions were due overwhelmingly to the canyon drying trend| which led to the drying up of most Mill D North drainage springs| creeks| and ponds. Precipitation and minimum temperatures increased moderately during the observation period. The growing season lengthened almost 50%| a typical consequence of global warming. The drying trend| lengthened growing season; and disappearance of Mimulus populations in Big Cottonwood Canyon appear to be a clear| local example of global warming. 5076,1999,3,3,Remote microwave plasma source for cleaning chemical vapor deposition chambers: Technology for reducing global warming gas emissions,The semiconductor industry uses a large amount of perfluoro compounds (PFCs)| and their impact on global warming has become a major environmental concern. In the semiconductor industry| PFC are used to periodically remove deposits from the chamber walls of chemical vapor deposition (CVD) reactors after film deposition. These chamber clean processes account for typically 50%-70% of the PFC usage in a semiconductor wafer fabrication site| the rest being mainly used for wafer-etching processes. With a conventional parallel plate radio frequency (rf) plasma reactor| the PFC gas utilization is incomplete and a large fraction of unreacted gas can be emitted in the atmosphere. This paper describes a microwave plasma source that provides as high as 99.9% utilization removal efficiency (URE) of the reactant gas (NF3) during chamber clean. This technology brings the million metric tons carbon equivalent (MMTCE) of a chamber clean to negligible levels and also enhances the chamber clean efficiency and the system throughput. Here we review the requirements for the manufacturability of a remote plasma clean process. Gaseous Fourier transform infrared and quadrupole mass spectroscopy techniques have been used to characterize the clean process| the by-products of the reaction| and the efficiency in reducing the MMTCE of CVD chamber cleans. (C) 1999 American Vacuum Society. [S0734-211X(99)06802-X]. 4967,1999,3,3,Renewable energy - the way forward,This paper outlines the growing need of energy in the developing countries and the acute population growth| which will exceed 10 billion by the year 2050. It describes the achievement and progress made in geothermal| hydro-power| biomass conversion| solar thermal technology| wind energy conversion and the ever increasing usage of photovoltaics. The paper also addresses the barriers and problems which face renewable energy users and producers. It is evident now that global warming is setting in and is going to change the climate as well as the terrain of many countries unless drastic measures are taken. The recent Kyoto meeting emphasised the importance of limiting CO2 emissions and to abide by some form of agreement to reduce emissions. Countries such as India| China and Indonesia| which represent nearly half the world's population| are actively involved in using renewable energy as the only means of sustaining their energy growth. It concludes that renewable energy penetration into the energy market is much faster than was expected a few years ago and by the year 2020| 10-15% of our prime energy will be met by renewable energy. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5011,1999,5,4,Response of plant-insect associations to Paleocene-Eocene warming,The diversity of modern herbivorous insects and their pressure on plant hosts generally increase with decreasing Latitude. These observations imply that the diversity and intensity of herbivory should increase with rising temperatures at constant Latitude. Insect damage on fossil Leaves found in southwestern Wyoming| from the Late Paleocene-early Eocene global warming interval| demonstrates this prediction. Early Eocene plants had more types of insect damage per host species and higher attack frequencies than Late Paleocene plants. Herbivory was most elevated on the most abundant group| the birch family (Betulaceae). Change in the composition of the herbivore fauna during the Paleocene-Eocene interval is also indicated. 5090,1999,2,3,Response to CO2 transient increase in the GISS coupled model: Regional coolings in a warming climate,The GISS coupled atmosphere-ocean model is used to investigate the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 by comparing a compounded 1% CO2 increase experiment with a control simulation. After 70 yr of integration| the global surface air temperature in the 1% CO2 experiment is 1.43 degrees C warmer. In spite of this global warming| there are two distinct regions| the northern Atlantic Ocean and the southern Pacific Ocean| where the surface air temperature is up to 4 degrees C cooler. This situation is maintained by two positive feedbacks: a local effect on convection in the South Pacific and a nonlocal impact on the meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The poleward transport of latent energy and dry static energy by the atmosphere is greater in the 1% CO2 experiment| caused by warming and therefore increased water vapor and greater greenhouse capacity at lower latitudes. The larger atmospheric transports tend to reduce upward vertical fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean surface at high latitudes| which has the effect of stabilizing the ocean| reducing both convection and the thermohaline circulation. With less convection| less warm water is brought up from below| and with a reduced North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (by 30% at time of CO2 doubling)| the poleward energy transport by the oceans decreases. The colder water then leads to further reductions in evaporation| decreases of salinity at high latitudes| continued stabilization of the ocean| and maintenance of reduced convection and meridional overturning. Although sea ice decreases globally| it increases in the cooling regions| which reduces the overall climate sensitivity| especially in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical warming has been observed over the past several decades; if modeling studies such as this and others that have produced similar effects are valid| these processes may already be beginning. 2269,1999,2,4,Responses of soil microarthropods to changes in soil water availability in tallgrass prairie,Changes in precipitation and soil water availability predicted to accompany global climate change would impact grasslands| where many ecosystem processes are influenced by water availability. Soil biota| including microarthropods| also are affected by soil water content| although little is known about how climate change might affect their abundance and distribution. The goal of this study was to examine soil microarthropod responses to altered soil water availability in tallgrass prairie ecosystems. Two separate experiments were done. The first utilized control and irrigated plots along a topographic gradient to examine the effects of soil water content on microarthropod densities. Microarthropods| mainly Acari| were significantly less abundant in irrigated plots and were generally less abundant at the wetter lowland sites. The second study utilized reciprocal core transplants across an east-west regional precipitation gradient. Large| intact cores were transplanted between a more mesic tallgrass site (Konza Prairie) and a more arid mixed-grass site (Hays) to determine the effects of different soil water regimes on microarthropod abundance and vertical distribution. Data from non-transplanted cores indicated greater total microarthropod densities at the drier Hays site| relative to the wetter Konza Prairie site. Data from the transplanted cores indicated significant effects of location on Acari densities in cores originating from Hays| with higher densities in cores remaining at Hays| relative to those transplanted to Konza. Acari densities in cores originating from Konza were not affected by location; however| oribatid mite densities generally were greater in cores remaining at Konza Prairie. These results confirm the importance of soil water content in affecting microarthropod densities and distributions in grasslands| and suggest complex| non-linear responses to changes in water availability. 4922,1999,2,4,Responses of tundra plants to experimental warming: Meta-analysis of the international tundra experiment,The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) is a collaborative| multisite experiment using a common temperature manipulation to examine variability in species response across climatic and geographic gradients of tundra ecosystems. ITEX was designed specifically to examine variability in arctic and alpine species response to increased temperature. We compiled from one to four years of experimental data from 13 different ITEX sites and used meta-analysis to analyze responses of plant phenology| growth| and reproduction to experimental warming. Results indicate that key phenological events such as leaf bud burst and flowering occurred earlier in warmed plots throughout the study period; however| there was little impact on growth cessation at the end of the season. Quantitative measures of vegetative growth were greatest in warmed plots in the early years of the experiment| whereas reproductive effort and success increased in later years. A shift away from vegetative growth and toward reproductive effort and success in the fourth treatment year suggests a shift from the initial response to a secondary response. The change in vegetative response may be due to depletion of stored plant reserves| whereas the lag in reproductive response may be due to the formation of flower buds one to several seasons prior to flowering. Both vegetative and reproductive responses varied among life-forms; herbaceous forms had stronger and more consistent vegetative growth responses than did woody forms. The greater responsiveness of the herbaceous forms may be attributed to their more flexible morphology and to their relatively greater proportion of stored plant reserves. Finally| warmer| low arctic sites produced the strongest growth responses| but colder sites produced a greater reproductive response. Greater resource investment in vegetative growth may be a conservative strategy in the Low Arctic| where there is more competition for light| nutrients| or water| and there may be little opportunity for successful germination or seedling development. In contrast| in the High Arctic| heavy investment in producing seed under a higher temperature scenario may provide an opportunity for species to colonize patches of unvegetated ground. The observed differential response to warming suggests that the primary forces driving the response vary across climatic zones| functional groups| and through time. 2283,1999,2,4,Root hydraulic conductivity of Larrea tridentata and Helianthus annuus under elevated CO2,While investigations into shoot responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 are extensive| few studies have focused on how an elevated atmospheric CO2 environment might impact root functions such as water uptake and transport. Knowledge of functional root responses may be particularly important in ecosystems where water is limiting if predictions about global climate change are true. In this study we investigated the effect of elevated CO2 on the root hydraulic conductivity (L-p) of a C-3 perennial| Lawea tridentata| and a C-3 annual| Helianthus annuus. The plants were grown in a glasshouse under ambient (360 mu mol mol(-1)) and elevated (700 mu mol mol(-1)) CO2. The L-p through intact root systems was measured using a hydrostatic pressure-induced flow system. Leaf gas exchange was also determined for both species and leaf water potential (psi(leaf)) was determined in L| tridentata| The L-p of L| tridentata roots was unchanged by an elevated CO2 growth environment. Stomatal conductance (g(s)) and transpiration (E) decreased and photosynthetic rate (A(net)) and psi(leaf) increased in L| tridentata| There were no changes in biomass| leaf area| stem diameter or root : shoot (R : S) ratio for L| tridentata. In H| annuus| elevated CO2 induced a nearly two-fold decrease in root L-p. There was no effect of growth under elevated CO2 on A(net)| g(s)| E| above- and below-ground dry mass| R : S ratio| leaf area| root length or stem diameter in this species. The results demonstrate that rising atmospheric CO2 can impact water uptake and transport in roots in a species-specific manner. Possible mechanisms for the observed decrease in root L-p in H| annuus under elevated CO2 are currently under investigation and may relate to either axial or radial components of root L-p. 4981,1999,2,4,Runoff generation and water table fluctuations in blanket peat: evidence from UK data spanning the dry summer of 1995,Understanding of the hydrology of upland blanket peatlands has been limited both by the logistical difficulties of obtaining data from such environments and by technical difficulties with plot scale investigations of peat hydrology. The relative importance of infiltration-excess and percolation-excess as runoff generating mechanisms as opposed to the saturation-excess mechanism remains unclear. This study uses catchment-scale runoff data| in combination with monitoring of water table levels| to identify the relative importance of these mechanisms for an upland peat catchment within the Moor House National Nature Reserve in the UK. Mean runoff coefficients for the catchment are 0.4 and the hood hydrographs are flashy. Monitored water table in the catchment is within 5 cm of the surface (i.e. within the acrotelm) 93% of the time. High stream flows always occur at times of high water table suggesting that overland and near surface runoff is controlled by saturation of the catotelm rather than by infiltration capacity. Depressed rates of water table recovery at the end of a prolonged period of low water table in 1995 suggest possible physical changes once the peat has dried out. The likelihood that such periods of low water table will become more common under global warming scenarios raises concern over the impact of such changes: increased erosion| water discoloration and increased CO2 flux may result. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4965,1999,2,4,Sea-level rise and coastal forest retreat on the west coast of Florida| USA,We investigated patterns| rates| and mechanisms of forest replacement by salt marsh in relation to sea-level rise on the west coast of Florida| USA. The geomorphology of this region typifies that of low-lying| limestone coastlines considered highly susceptible to sea-level rise (e.g.| much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico| the Yucatan Peninsula| and low-lying limestone islands throughout the world). This coast is microtidal| shallowly sloping| and has a rate of relative sea-level rise similar to that of eustatic rise. To determine patterns of forest change in relation to sea-level rise| we examined patterns of tree-species zonation| tree recruitment| and tree mortality in relation to site elevation and tidal-flooding frequency. To reconstruct histories of forest change in relation to sea-level rise| we estimated age distributions of Sabal palmetto| the most widely distributed tree species at our site| relating age structures of stands to reconstructed histories of tidal flooding in the stands. Finally| to assess the relative roles of flooding stress (hypoxia)| salt exposure| and competition from encroaching salt-marsh vegetation in the decline of forest stands| we examined patterns of soil redox potential| groundwater salinity| and density of halophytic vegetation among stands in different stages of decline. Zonation among tree species was related to tidal-flooding frequency. For most trees| seedlings were absent from the most frequently flooded stands in which the species occurred. Reconstructed flooding histories of stands and age estimates for S. palmetto suggest that many decades elapse between cessation of regeneration and local elimination of a tree species. Even during the relatively short duration of the study (4 yr)| however| composition of some stands changed in the direction predicted from species zonation and sea-level rise. Forest understory replacement by halophytic vegetation appeared to follow| rather than cause| failure of tree regeneration. Tidal flooding rarely produced severe reducing conditions in soil| but groundwater salinity was correlated with tidal-flooding frequency. Forest retreat in this system| therefore| involves the development of relict (non-regenerating) stands of different tree species at different flooding frequencies. Exposure to salt appears to be the major cause of tree regeneration failure| with flooding stress and interference from marsh playing minor or negligible roles. These interactions differ somewhat from those on deltaic coasts or coasts with high freshwater outflows| where flooding stress may play a larger role in regeneration failure| and from sandy coasts| where erosion may play a larger role in forest retreat. Regardless of the cause of tree regeneration failure| the development of relict stands may be a general forest response to sea-level rise. 2306,1999,2,4,Seasonal variation in carbon accumulation by a high latitude forest ecosystem,This study is concerned with interactions between a boreal forest ecosystem and the atmosphere| measured in an old-growth muskeg ecosystem (predominantly black spruce Picea mariana) in the BOREAS Southern study area (SSA)| Saskatchewan| Canada| during 1996. We focus on efforts to understand the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 in terms of the sub-component fluxes operating within the ecosystem. The component fluxes of primary interest are photosynthesis| respiration and evapotranspiration of foliage| and the efflux of CO2 from the forest floor. Woody biomass respiration is also considered. Methodologies were developed to study these fluxes on a continuous basis. An "open" system gas exchange chamber for measuring soil CO2 efflux was designed that eliminated the major problems that have been associated with this methodology in the past. The system was used to investigate temporal and spatial variation in soil CO2 efflux at the field site. A scheme that integrated this temporal and spatial variation was used to estimate the CO2 efflux from the forest floor for an entire year. Seasonally| soil CO2 efflux varied between low| but positive| rates before the springtime thaw and after the winter freeze| to rates as high as 14 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) in late summer. The total carbon efflux from the soil during the measurement period varied from point to point between 152 and 1310 g (C) m(-2) yr(-1)| the total soil carbon efflux for the whole ecosystem over the measurement period was estimated to be 790 g (C) m(-2) yr(-1). A "branch bag" methodology for studying the gas exchange of whole tree branches was developed and operated for an entire growing season. Daily maximum photosynthetic rates were zero at the beginning and end of the year and reached a maximum of approximate to 6 mu mol m(-2) s(-1). Night-time respiration reached a maximum rate of approximate to 0.8 mu mol g(-1) s(-1). Total daytime carbon uptake during the measurement period ranged from 12.6 to 22.6 mol m(-2) (leaf area) yr(-1) for individual branches and total night-time loss ranged from 1.98 to 2.27 mol kg(-1) (dry weight) yr(-1). Total net photosynthesis for the canopy during the measurement period was estimated to be 919 g (C) m(-2) (ground area) yr(-1). Above-ground autotrophic respiration in woody tissue during the measurement period was estimated to be 89 g (C) m(-2) y(-1). In 1996| the estimated net carbon uptake during the measurement period for the ecosystem was 222 g (C) m(-2) yr(-1). This was the small difference between a large photosynthetic influx and a large respiratory efflux. The carbon source/sink strength of this ecosystem is thus very sensitive to changes in environmental conditions| and the boreal region may be the location of a large positive feedback on global climate change. 5120,1999,2,4,Seasonal variation in nutrients| pelagic primary production and grazing in a high-Arctic coastal marine ecosystem| Young Sound| Northeast Greenland,The Young Sound estuary was covered by sea ice for approximately 10 mo during 1996. Investigations of pelagic primary production and estimated grazing were performed during the summer thaw (20 June to 25 August) and in the winter month of February. The phytoplankton community was dominated by diatoms in the surface samples| as well as in the subsurface bloom succeeding the spring bloom. Pelagic primary production was limited by light during sea ice cover. After break-up of the sea ice| silicate initially Limited primary production in the surface water due to a well-established pycnocline| and maximum photosynthesis occurred in a subsurface layer at 15 to 20 m depth. In August| production sank to deeper water layers presumably due to nitrogen limitation. The carbon budget describing the fate of the annual pelagic primary production in Young Sound reveals that the pelagic production of similar to 10 g C m(-2) yr(-1) was lightly coupled to the grazer community| since total consumption by the grazer community amounted to 10-12 g C m(-2) yr(-1). The classical food web dominated this northeastern Greenlandic fjord| and it was estimated that copepods account for >80% of the grazing pressure upon phytoplankton. Based on this study and other values of annual pelagic primary production and sea ice cover found in the literature| we suggest that annual pelagic primary production in the Arctic can be described as proportional to the length of the open water Light period. We propose that annual pelagic primary production| and hence secondary production| in a wide range of Arctic marine areas may increase in the future as a consequence of reduction and thinning of sea ice cover due to global warming. 5057,1999,2,4,Seasonality of streamflow: The upper Mississippi River,The understanding of seasonal variations in streamflow is important for water resource management. The dynamics of streamflow are often dominated by annual and intra-annual variations| and the global warming debate has also generated an interest in potential changes in the seasonal cycle of hydroclimatic variables. Thus there are mechanistic as well as policy motivations for an empirical analysis of the historical seasonal variations in streamflow. The seasonality of the upper Mississippi River streamflow is investigated in this paper using a 123-year record of daily flow. This long streamflow series provides an interesting look at the high- and low-flow seasons within the year| their interannual variation| and within-season attributes. Evidence for changes in the timing and amplitude of these seasons and the annual flow extremes is presented. Connections to similar trends in regional climate variables are noted. The upper Mississippi River streamflow exhibits bimodal probability distributions for monthly averages and for specific seasons. Transitions across the high- and low-flow regimes corresponding to these modes exhibit memory across seasons and over years. Thus an empirical basis for seasonal or longer prediction is provided. Needs for developing a mechanistic explanation of the empirical observations offered are also indicated. 4963,1999,3,3,Secondary benefits of greenhouse gs control: Health impacts in China,In addition to long-term benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions in the form of avoided health and ecosystem damage| there are important near-term benefits resulting from the reduction in health-damaging pollutants (HDP) that can accompany GHG reductions. This paper estimates such health benefits| using the power and household energy sectors of China as a case study for the method. Four policy scenarios were compared: business as usual| least-cost energy efficiency| least-cost per unit global-warming-reduction fuel substitution| and least-cost per unit exposure-reduction fuel substitution. The health benefits were estimated by converting PM10 emissions first to human exposures and then to avoided mortality and morbidity with existing exposure-response relationships. Our results demonstrate that the near-term health benefits from GHG reductions in China could be substantial but are highly dependent on the technologies and sectors chosen. Such near-term benefits provide the opportunity for a true "no-regrets" GHG reduction policy. The results of this study also have important implications for the current international negotiations to cut GHG emissions by demonstrating that GHG reduction strategies can have substantial local and national as well as global benefits. 4941,1999,3,3,Selection of appropriate greenhouse gas mitigation options,Greenhouse gas mitigation options help in reducing greenhouse gas emissions so as to avoid the adverse environmental impacts due to global warming/climate change. They have different characteristics when evaluated using different criteria. For example| some options may be very cost effective| while some may have an additional advantage of reducing local pollution. Hence| selection of these options| for consideration by a national government or by a funding agency| has to incorporate multiple criteria. In this paper| some important criteria relevant to the selection are discussed| and a multi-criteria methodology is suggested for making appropriate selection. The methodology| called the Analytic Hierarchy Process| is described using two illustrations. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5009,1999,4,3,Semiconductor and thin film applications of a quadrupole mass spectrometer,Commercial quadrupole mass spectrometer (QMS) residual gas analyzers became available in the late 1960s and have been popular in R&D laboratories| but have found limited use in semiconductor manufacturing. To sample at pressures above 10(-5) Torr with ppm sensitivity or better (relative to the total process pressure)| differential pumping is usually required. The newly available| small| high-pressure QMS sensors can operate as high as 10-20 mTorr without differential pumping| but provide somewhat lower mass resolution and partial pressure sensitivity than a standard QMS. Applications in semiconductor manufacturing include equipment monitoring| process monitoring| and effluent analysis. Equipment monitoring can include qualification after preventative maintenance| rate-of-rise tests| and leak identification and detection. Usually the burning question is| Why won't the vacuum chamber pump down? Other uses that are not usually considered include the qualification of replaceable parts: sputter cathodes| electrodes| lamps| shields| etc. In process monitoring| the key question is| Is this process running normally? A manufacturing monitor can be useful simply by providing a comparison between a well-behaved high-yield process and a marginal or failing process. Examples are given for physical vapor deposition (sputtering) processes| chemical vapor deposition| and plasma etching. The effluent from chemical vapor deposition and plasma etch processes can be analyzed to measure the efficiency of process gas utilization or to monitor the efficacy of abatement methods used for the removal of global warming gases. (C) 1999 American Vacuum Society. [S0734-2101(99)04704-1]. 4907,1999,2,3,Sensitivity of stream temperatures in the United States to air temperatures projected under a global warming scenario,To project mean weekly stream temperature changes in response to global climate warming and for studies of freshwater ecosystems| a four-parameter nonlinear function of weekly air temperatures was used. One parameter| the upper bound stream temperature| was obtained by extreme value analysis from stream temperature data| and the other three parameters were obtained by least squares regression analysis. The least squares regression function was developed separately for the warming season and the cooling season (hysteresis) to take heat storage due to snowmelt or reservoir operations into account. There were very weak correlations between model parameters and annual or seasonal air temperatures. To project weekly stream temperatures under a 2 X CO2 climate scenario| weekly air temperature data from 166 weather stations| incremented by the output of the Canadian Center of Climate Modelling (CCC) general circulation model (GCM)| were applied to nonlinear stream temperature models developed for 803 stream gaging stations. An error analysis indicated that only 39 stream gaging stations would not exhibit a significant change under the CCC-GCM 2 X CO2 climate scenario. The projections at the remaining 764 stream gaging stations showed that mean annual stream temperatures in the contiguous United States would increase by 2 degrees-5 degrees C| least near the West Coast and most in the Missouri River and Ohio River basins. On average| there would be a 1 degrees-3 degrees C increase in the maximum and minimum weekly stream temperatures under the 2 X CO2 climate scenario| most in the central United States. It was also found that most streams would experience the maximum change in weekly stream temperatures in spring (March-June). The minimum changes in stream temperatures are projected to occur in winter (December and January) and summer (July and August) throughout the United States. 2236,1999,2,4,Sex- and habitat-specific responses of a high arctic willow| Salix arctica| to experimental climate change,Dioecious plant species and those occupying diverse habitats may present special analytical problems to researchers examining effects of climate change. Here we report the results from two complementary studies designed to determine the importance of sex and habitat on gas exchange and growth of male and female individuals of a dioecious| circumpolar willow| Salix arctica| in the Canadian High Arctic. In field studies| male and female willows from dry and wet habitats were subjected to passively enhanced summer temperature (similar to 1.3 degrees C) using small open-top chambers over three years. Peak season gas exchange varied significantly by willow sex and habitat. Overall net assimilation was higher in the dry habitat than in the wet| and higher in females than in males. In the dry habitat| net assimilation of females was enhanced by experimental warming| but decreased in males. In the wet habitat| net assimilation of females was substantially depressed by experimental warming| while males showed an inconsistent response. Development and growth of male and female catkins were enhanced by elevated temperature more than leaf fascicles| but leaf fascicle development and growth varied more between the two habitats| particularly in males. In a controlled environment study| male and female willows from these same wet and dry habitats were grown in a 2x2 factorial experiment including 1 x or 2 x ambient [CO2] and 5 or 12 degrees C. The sexes responded very differently to the experimental treatments| but we found no effect of original habitat. Net assimilation in males was affected by the interaction of temperature and CO2| but in females by CO2 only. Our results demonstrate (a) significant intraspecific and intersexual differences in arctic willow physiology and growth| (b) that these differences are affected by environmental conditions expected to accompany global climate change| and (c) that sex- and habitat-specific responses should be explicitly accounted for in studies of dioecious species. 5096,1999,4,2,Short-term climatic fluctuations and the interpretation of recent observations in terms of greenhouse effect,Simulations of future climate made with coupled general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean predict that the increase of the concentration of greenhouse gases released in the atmosphere by man's activities will have a large influence on the climate of the next century. The identification of the climatic impact produced by the rapid increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the last decades is made difficult by strong interannual climate variability| and requires the application of statistical techniques combining several climatic indicators (method of climatic "fingerprints") so as to improve the detection of a possible anthropogenic perturbation. In this paper we review the evolution through the last decades of several climate indicators showing global warming| its geographical distribution| sea level| the hydrological cycle and the response of vegetation| and Rie compare them to the model results predicted in climate scenarios. The coherence between model results and observed climatic trends shows that: the additional greenhouse effect is starting to become detectable in recent climatic data. ((C) Academie des sciences / Elsevier| Paris). 5035,1999,2,4,Signals of climate trends and extreme events in the thermal stratification pattern of multibasin Lake Opeongo| Ontario,Previous empirical observations on thermocline response to warmer conditions have been contradictory. Given that a deepening thermocline was observed for a small lake (0.5 km(2)) and a shallowing thermocline was observed for a larger system (73.6 km(2))| these contradictions may be attributable to differences in lake size and the diminishing influence of water clarity on mixing depth. The four basin systems of Lake Opeongo| Ontario| Canada| range in size from 4.4 to 22.1 km(2) and build an empirical suite of stratification responses to climate variation for a wide range of lake sizes. From 1958 to 1996| lake temperature profiles were taken in the four major basins of Lake Opeongo. Canonical correlation analyses linked earlier iceout dates| warm July-August air temperatures| and relatively high amounts of bright sunshine in July and August with warmer midsummer epilimnia and shallower midsummer thermoclines for all four basins. The occurrence of stratification patterns associated with warmer climatic conditions increased (r = 0.44| p < 0.01) in parallel with the recent (post-1965) global warming trend. Such patterns also tended to occur in El Nino years. Stratification conditions with cooler midsummer epilimnia and deeper thermoclines tended to occur in La Nina years and provided a pronounced signal in 1992| the year that experienced a global cooling effect due to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. 5050,1999,4,4,Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes,A crucial question in the global-warming debate concerns the extent to which recent climate change is caused by anthropogenic forcing or is a manifestation of natural climate variability(1). It is commonly thought that the climate response to anthropogenic forcing should be distinct from the patterns of natural climate variability. But| on the basis of studies of nonlinear chaotic models with preferred states or 'regimes'| it has been argued(2|3) that the spatial patterns of the response to anthropogenic forcing may in fact project principally onto modes of natural climate variability. Here we use atmospheric circulation data from the Northern Hemisphere to show that recent climate change can be interpreted in terms of changes in the frequency of occurrence of natural atmospheric circulation regimes. We conclude that recent Northern Hemisphere warming may be more directly related to the thermal structure of these circulation regimes than to any anthropogenic forcing pattern itself. Conversely| the fact that observed climate change projects onto natural patterns cannot be used as evidence of no anthropogenic effect on climate. These results may help explain possible differences between trends in surface temperature and satellite-based temperature in the free atmosphere(4-6). 4933,1999,3,3,Silicon oxide selective etching process keeping harmony with environment by using radical injection technique,A novel radical control method using a radical injection technique was proposed for preventing global warming. This system consists of a new fluorocarbon radical source where-the polytetrafluoroethylene was ablated by a CO2 laser resulting in producing fluorocarbon radicals working as etching species and a radical filter set in front of the radical source which controls radicals generated from the radical source. Therefore| this system does not employ any fluorocarbon feed gases causing the global warming. The system was successfully applied to SiO2 over Si selective etching process employing an electron cyclotron resonance plasma. CFx (x = 1-3) radical densities| F atom densities and higher species were successfully controlled by using the radical filter| which was confirmed by an infrared diode laser absorption spectroscopy and an actinometric optical emission spectroscopy. From these results| it was found that this technique was applicable to SiO2 over Si selective etching process keeping harmony with the environment| particularly for preventing global warming. (C) 1999 American Vacuum Society. [S0734-2101(99)02106-5]. 5114,1999,2,4,Simulated climate change affecting microorganisms| nematode density and biodiversity in subarctic soils,Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are strongly dominated by temperature| and global warming is expected to have a particularly strong impact in high latitudes. The Arctic will therefore be an important region for early detection of global change. In the present study the effects of environmental manipulations simulating climate change on soil microorganisms and nematode populations were investigated. Study sites were a dwarf shrub dominated tree-line heath (450 m a.s.l.) and a high altitude fellfield (1150 m a.s.l.) at Abisko| Swedish Lapland. Soil temperature was enhanced by using passive greenhouses and the impact on soil organisms with and without NPK fertilizer addition was assessed. The nematode community was strongly affected by warming and nutrient application. Population density was twice as high for all treatments at the fellfield as compared to controls. At the heath temperature enhancement with or without fertilizer application also led to a doubling of the population density| whereas fertilization alone caused an increase of about one third. The environmental manipulations resulted in a greater microbial biomass C and active fungal biomass in the heath soil. Increased density was also recorded for bacterial and fungal feeding nematodes at both sites. The results suggest that nematodes have an important impact on microbial biomass and turnover rates in the two subarctic systems. Elevated soil temperature apparently will lead to increased grazing on microorganisms| contributing to enhanced net N and P mineralization rates and plant nutrient availability. However| biodiversity was generally affected negatively by the environmental manipulations. The effects were more severe at the high altitude fellfield indicating that the influence of elevated temperature will be more pronounced in systems already stressed by extreme climatic conditions. 4995,1999,2,4,Simulated climate change in subarctic soils: responses in nematode species composition and dominance structure,The nematode fauna at two contrasting subarctic sites was studied at Abisko| Swedish Lapland. One site was a dwarf shrub dominated| tree-line heath (450 m a.s.l.) and the other a high altitude fellfield (1150 m a.s.l.). Responses in the composition of the nematode fauna to eight growing seasons with simulated climate change were monitored. The environmental manipulations consisted of temperature increase by using passive greenhouses| NPK fertilization| and a combination of both. A total of 98 species was found at the sites| with twice as many species at the heath compared to the climatically harsh fellfield. Species similarity was low| most likely due to differences in soil type and vegetation cover. The environmental perturbations caused distinct changes in dominance and trophic structure. Taxa common at both sites responded similarly with increases in Aphelenchoides| Filenchus and Plectus| and decreases in Eudorylaimus| Monhystrella and Teratocephalus. Generally| the manipulations changed the trophic composition in favour of fungal and plant feeding species| indicating a shift in the decomposition pathway. 4964,1999,4,4,Simulation of daily temperatures for climate change scenarios over Portugal: a neural network model approach,Methods to assess the impact of global warming on the temperature regime of a single site are explored with reference to Coimbra in Portugal. The basis of the analysis is information taken from a climate change simulation performed with a state-of-the-art general circulation model (the Hadley Centre model). First| it is shown that the model is unable to reproduce accurately the statistics of daily maximum and minimum temperature at the site. Second| using a re-analysis data set| downscaling models are developed to predict site temperature from large-scale free atmosphere variables derived from the sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height fields. In particular| the relative performances of linear models and non-linear artificial neural networks are compared using a set of rigorous validation techniques. It is shown that even a simple configuration of a 2-layer non-linear neural network significantly improves on the performance of a linear model. Finally| the non-linear neural network model is initialised with general circulation model output to construct scenarios of daily temperature at the present day (1970-79) and for a future decade (2090-99). These scenarios are analysed with special attention to the comparison of the frequencies of heat waves (days with maximum temperature greater than 35 degreesC) and cold spells (days with minimum temperature below 5 degreesC). 2234,1999,4,3,Simulations of forest system response and feedbacks to global change: experiences and results from the US Country Studies Program,Large shifts in the response and feedbacks of forest systems are implied by models and systems analysis driven by global change scenarios of general circulation models (GCMs). Prior climate change analyses and modeling efforts have been reported at a global scale in a few developed countries| but relatively few national assessments have been successfully completed in developing countries. Under the auspices of the U.S. Country Studies Program| analysts from 55 countries employed a common set of methods and models to characterize current carbon (C) pools in forests| future impacts of global change on forest distribution| and management options for conserving and sequestering carbon dioxide (CO(2)) in forest systems. The analysis revealed that the response and feedbacks of forest systems to global climate change will be profound in the 55 countries studied on five continents. Globally| forest vegetation and soils contain about 1146 Pg C| with approximately 37% of this C in low-latitude forests| 14% in mid-latitudes| and 49% at high latitudes. The impacts of future global change on forest distribution and productivity will be most significant at high latitudes| with more modest changes in distribution and productivity at low latitudes. Future opportunities to conserve and sequester CO(2) in forest systems are potentially significant| but land-use practices and global change will influence the size of this C pool and CO(2) sink. In the future| a greater proportion of forests at all latitudes could become a greenhouse gas (GHG) source if sustained management and conservation policies are not employed. The timing and magnitude of future changes in forest systems are dependent on global environmental factors (for example| global change| biogeochemical Sulphur and Nitrogen cycles)| as well as on human factors such as demographics| economic growth| technology| and resource management policies. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5111,1999,4,2,Simulations of Southern Hemisphere warming and Antarctic sea-ice changes using global climate models,A combination of modelling techniques is used in conjunction with the limited available observational data to examine Antarctic sea-ice changes with global warming over the past century. Firstly| a coupled global climate model is forced by prescribing the effect of increasing greenhouse gases from last century to the present. Secondly| the GISST (U.K| Meteorological Office global sea-ice and sea surface temperature) observational dataset is used to force an atmosphere-sea-ice model to compute changes in the Antarctic sea ice from last century to the present. Thirdly| the global sea-surface-temperature (SST) anomalies derived from the coupled model are used to force the atmosphere-sea-ice model over the same period. The change in the Southern Hemisphere annual mean surface temperature simulated by the coupled model with greenhouse-gas forcing is about 0.6 degrees C| which is similar to the observed change. Over the Antarctic (poleward of 60 degrees S) the corresponding simulated change is about 0.7 degrees C| which also appears compatible with observations. The reduction in summer sea-ice extent simulated by the CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) coupled model is 0.44 degrees lat. which is| in general| less than the observed change. For the two SST forcing cases the changes are| in general| larger than indicated by the observations. It is concluded that future changes of reduced sea-ice extent from increasing greenhouse gases as simulated by the CSIRO coupled model are not expected to be overestimates. 4919,1999,2,3,Snow characterization using SSM/I data,Snow in the Himalayan region is a vital water resource for India. Most of the river systems of India are dependent on melting of snow during summer months| which gives substantial amount of water for agriculture and hydropower| and a boost to our development. But the changes in snow cover have direct relation to global climatic changes. It is expected that the surface and atmospheric temperatures may significantly change which may influence the snow cover over high altitude regions. Currently| much attention is being paid to the global warming trend due to the increase of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere. The mapping of snow cover using optical sensors| however| suffers quite often with cloud problems. Such problems do not affect microwave remote sensing which has an added advantage of quantitative estimation of snow parameters and characterization of snow cover. In the present work| an attempt has been made to study the characteristics of brightness temperature of snow over Himalayan region using SSM/I data. 4944,1999,3,3,Soil and residue management effects on cropping conditions and nitrous oxide fluxes under controlled traffic in Scotland 2. Nitrous oxide| soil N status and weather,Nitrogen from fertilisers and crop residues can be lost as nitrous oxide N2O)| a greenhouse gas that causes an increase in global warming and also depletes stratospheric ozone. Nitrous oxide emissions| soil chemical status| temperature and N2O concentration in the soil atmosphere were measured in a field experiment on soil compaction in loam and sandy loam (cambisols) soils in south-east Scotland. The overall objective was to discover how the intensity and distribution of soil compaction by tractor wheels or by roller just before sowing influenced crop performance| soil conditions and production and emissions of N2O under controlled traffic conditions. Compaction treatments were zero| light compaction by roller (up to 1 Mg per metre of length) and heavy compaction by loaded tractor (up to 4.2 Mg). In this paper we report the effects on production and emissions of N2O and relate them to soil and crop conditions. Nitrous oxide fluxes were substantial only when the soil water content was high (>27 g per 100 g). Fertiliser application stimulated emissions in the spring whereas crop residues stimulated emissions in autumn and winter. Heavy compaction increased N2O emissions after fertiliser application or residue incorporation more than light or zero compaction. The bulk densities of the heavily and lightly compacted soils were up to 89% and 82% of the theoretical (Proctor) maxima. Higher soil cone resistances| temperatures and nitrogen availability and lower gas diffusivities and air-filled porosities combined to make the heavily compacted soil more anaerobic and likely to denitrify than the zero or lightly compacted soil. Compaction sufficient to increase N2O emissions significantly corresponded with adverse soil conditions for winter barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) growth. Soil tillage| which ensures that soil compaction is no greater than in our light treatment and is confined to near the soil surface| may help to mitigate both surface fluxes of N2O and losses to the subsoil. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5015,1999,4,4,Soil protozoa as bioindicators: pros and cons| methods| diversity| representative examples,This paper emphasizes some general aspects of soil protozoa as indicators of environmental quality-pros and cons| methods| and diversity. Protozoa are at the base of the heterotrophic eukaryotic food web and an essential component in marine| freshwater| and soil ecosystems because they consume a significant portion (usually >50%) of the bacterial productivity. enhancing nutrient cycles and energy flows to the benefit of microorganisms| plants and animals. Accordingly| studies of their dynamics and community structures provide a powerful means for assessing and monitoring changes in the biotic and abiotic environment. This is exemplified by some representative studies focusing on soil oxygen regime| differentiation of humus types| pesticides| global warming| forest decline| movement of protozoan pathogens in soil| and soil protozoan bioassays. Usually| protozoa are not replaceable by higher animals (meso- and macrofauna) as indicator organisms because they have unique physiological properties: they consume more food and have a higher respiration rate per mass unit| have shorter generation and life times| and reproduce much faster. Direct counting methods should be given preference over dilution culture techniques| which are beset with uncontrollable deficiencies. Thus| ciliates and| especially| testate amoebae| whose abundance and diversity can be reliably estimated in simple soil suspensions| should be preferred in environmental studies. About 1600 protozoan species are known to live in terrestrial habitats. However| data from studies of ciliates suggest that this is only a minor portion (20-30%) of the species actually present| most of which are still undescribed. Overcoming the methodological and taxonomic problems are urgent needs which| at present| limit the use of protozoa as bioindicators in terrestrial environments. Furthermore| species monographs are required to compile the taxonomic| faunistic| and ecological information available. (C)1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5104,1999,2,4,Soil warming and carbon loss from a lake states spodosol,Elevated soil temperatures may increase C loss from soils by accelerating microbial respiration and dissolved organic C leaching. We evaluated the effect of elevated soil temperatures on C losses from a forest Spodosol by incubating soil cores from surface (Oa + A + E) and subsurface (Bhs) horizons at two seasonal temperature regimes. One regime simulated the normal course of soil temperatures in northern lower Michigan| and the other simulated soil temperatures representing an amount of warming that might occur under some global warming theory calculations. We measured the amounts of CO2-C respired and dissolved organic C leached from the soil cores during a 33-wk period. Microbial respiration rates| after adjustment for variation in initial rates| were significantly increased by soil warming and were greater in surface than in subsurface horizons. Warming significantly increased cumulative C respired| with greater losses from surface soils (greater than or equal to 50 mg C g(-1) C) as compared with subsurface soils (less than or equal to 25 mg C g(-1) C). Mean quantities of dissolved organic C leached| ranging from 2.3 to 3.2 mg C g(-1) C| did not differ significantly by soil horizon or temperature regime. Increased microbial respiration in surface soil horizons was the process most responsive to soil warming in the Spodosol samples we examined. Whether this is a short-term effect that would disappear once pools of labile C are exhausted| or represents a long-term response to soil warming| remains uncertain. 2250,1999,4,4,Solar cycle length and 20th century Northern Hemisphere warming: Revisited,It has been suggested that the length of the solar cycle (SCL) is related to solar forcing of global climate change [Fris-Christensen and Lassen| 1991]. Although no physical mechanism had been proposed| the relation seemed to be supported by interesting correlations with several paleoclimate records and| separately| with the 20th century Northern Hemisphere instrumental record. Actually| what has been correlated is the quasi-sinusoidal Gleissberg cycle which is slightly greater in the 18th century than in the 20th century. Using the pre-industrial record as a boundary condition| the SCL-temperature correlation corresponds to an estimated 25% of global warming to 1980 and 15% to 1997. 2231,1999,4,4,Sources of variability in net primary production predictions at a regional scale: A comparison using PnET-II and TEM 4.0 in northeastern US forests,Because model predictions at continental and global scales are necessarily based on broad characterizations of vegetation| soils| and climate| estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes made by global terrestrial biosphere models may not be accurate for every region. At the regional scale| we suggest that attention can be focused more clearly on understanding the relative strengths of predicted net primary productivity (NPP) limitation by energy| water| and nutrients. We evaluate the sources of variability among model predictions of NPP with a regional-scale comparison between estimates made by PnET-II (a forest ecosystem process model previously applied to the northeastern region) and TEM 4.0 (a terrestrial biosphere model typically applied to the globe) for the northeastern US. When the same climate| vegetation| and soil data sets were used to drive both models| regional average NPP predictions made by PnET-II and TEM were remarkably similar| and at the biome level| model predictions agreed fairly well with NPP estimates developed from field measurements. However| TEM. 4.0 predictions were more sensitive to regional variations in temperature as a result of feedbacks between temperature and belowground N availability. In PnET-II| the direct link between transpiration and photosynthesis caused substantial water stress in hardwood and pine forest types with increases in solar radiation; predicted water stress was relieved substantially when soil water holding capacity (WHC) was increased. Increasing soil WHC had little effect on TEM 4.0 predictions because soil water storage was already sufficient to meet plant demand with baseline WHC values| and because predicted N availability under baseline conditions in this region was not limited by water. Because NPP predictions were closely keyed to forest cover type| the relative coverage of low- versus high-productivity forests at both fine and coarse resolutions was an important determinant of regional NPP predictions. Therefore| changes in grid cell size and differences in the methods used to aggregate from fine to coarse resolution were important to NPP predictions insofar as they changed the relative proportions of forest cover. We suggest that because the small patches of high-elevation spruce-fir forest in this region are substantially less productive than forests in the remainder of the region| more accurate NPP predictions will result if models applied to this region use land cover input data sets that retain as much fine-resolution forest type variability as possible. The differences among model responses to variations in climate and soil WHC data sets suggest that the models will respond quite differently to scenarios of future climate. A better understanding of the dynamic interactions between water stress| N availability| and forest productivity in this region will enable models to make more accurate predictions of future carbon stocks and fluxes. 2272,1999,2,4,Statistical models of invertebrate distribution on Macquarie Island: a tool to assess climate change and local human impacts,Sub-Antarctic islands are good model systems in which to study the ecological effects of human impacts| particularly global climate change and alien species. Invertebrates form a central component of these ecosystems. We conducted a stratified survey of 69 sites on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island and used logistic regression models to describe the distribution of 14 abundant invertebrate species. We also developed a statistical model of windspeed based on topography. The distributions of individual species were described by different combinations of aspect| altitude and vegetation type. Ordination of sites based on species composition showed strong effects of altitude and vegetation on invertebrate assemblages. The species distribution models provide a tool for detecting| monitoring and predicting effects of climate change and alien species on biota and ecosystem processes. 4979,1999,3,4,Steps towards an environmentally sustainable transport system,Motorists may assist in going towards sustainable transport if given a wider basis for choice between vehicles| to include a number of important environmental aspects. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2267,1999,2,4,Stream temperature air temperature relationship: a physical interpretation,In studies of the potential effects of global climate change on freshwater ecosystems| water temperature is a primary factor. Linear regressions of stream temperature versus air temperature are attractive for this purpose| because they require only one input variable (air temperature) which can be simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) better than other climate variables. Under a warmer climate scenario| high stream temperatures must be projected by extrapolation. The question arises whether linear extrapolation is valid. To answer the question| the heat exchange processes that contribute to surface water temperature have been analyzed and related to air temperature on a weekly time scale. The equilibrium temperature concept introduced by Edinger has been used. In stream reaches with large drainage area| stream temperature can be approximated by equilibrium temperature. At elevated air temperatures| the vapor pressure deficit above a water surface increases drastically (even in humid regions) causing strong evaporative cooling and hence a flatter stream temperature/air temperature relationship. At low air temperatures| stream temperatures often reach 0 degrees C as an asymptote. If an upstream flow control (dam| reservoir release) or a waste heat input is present| the lower asymptotic value can be larger than 0 degrees C. As a result of these upper and lower constraints for stream temperatures| the stream temperature/air temperature relationship resembles an S-shaped function rather than a straight line. Linear extrapolations to high and low air temperatures are therefore not justified. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5117,1999,4,3,Surface radiation fluxes in transient climate simulations,Transient CO2 experiments from five coupled climate models| in which the CO2 concentration increases at rates of 0.6-1.1% per annum for periods of 75-200 years| are used to document the responses of surface radiation fluxes| and associated atmospheric properties| to the CO2 increase. In all five models| the responses of global surface temperature and column water vapour are non-linear and fairly tightly constrained. Thus| global warming lies between 1.9 and 2.7 K at doubled| and between 3.1 and 4.1 K at tripled| CO2| whilst column water vapour increases by between 3.5 and 4.5 mm at doubled| and between 7 and 8 mm at tripled| CO2. Global cloud fraction tends to decrease by 1-2% out to tripled CO2| mainly the result of decreases in low cloud. Global increases in column water| and differences in these increases between models| are mainly determined by the warming of the tropical oceans relative to the middle and high latitudes; these links are emphasised in the zonal profiles of warming and column water vapour increase| with strong water vapour maxima in the tropics. In all models the all-sky shortwave flux to the surface S-down arrow (global| annual average) changes by less than 5 W m(-2) out to tripled CO2| in some cases being essentially invariant in time. In contrast| the longwave flux to the surface L-down arrow increases significantly| by 25 W m(-2) typically at tripled CO2. The variations of S-down arrow and L-down arrow (clear-sky and all-sky fluxes) with increase in CO2 concentration are generally non-linear| reflecting the effects of ocean thermal inertia| but as functions of global warming are close to linear in all five models. This is best illustrated for the clear-sky downwelling fluxes| and the net radiation. Regionally| as illustrated in zonal profiles and global distributions| greatest changes in both S-down arrow and L-down arrow are the result primarily of local maxima in warming and column water vapour increases. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5020,1999,3,3,Surface wave plasma abatement of CHF3 and CF4 containing semiconductor process emissions,Projected exponential growth in semiconductor device manufacture over the next few years demands technology to reduce the corresponding increase in etchants such as perfluorocompounds (PFCs)| CHF3| and SF6 that would be emitted into the atmosphere. These compounds are a cause for concern because of their large global warming potentials relative to CO2 and of their long lifetimes in the atmosphere| often tens of thousands of years. We demonstrate that a plasma-based technology can yield effective (up to 99.9%) destruction and removal efficiencies (DREs) for CF4 and CHF3 present in etch recipes widely used in the semiconductor industry. Specifically| we report application of surface wave plasmas at 2.45 GHz for this purpose. Post-plasma effluent analysis included the determination of DREs and product distributions| simultaneously by gas-phase FTIR and QMS. Application of microwave powers from 500 to 1950 W were investigated and DREs for CF4 and CHF3 reported. Final product analysis indicated that PFC conversion was limited to low molecular weight gases such as CO2| CO| COF2| H2O| and HF. These investigations demonstrate that surface wave plasma destruction of the referenced PFCs at the output of semiconductor etch tools is a viable nonintrusive point of use abatement technology. 5121,1999,5,3,Tectonically-induced icehouse-greenhouse climate oscillations during the transition from the Variscan to the Alpine cycle (Carboniferous to Triassic),Remarkable global climate oscillations were recorded during the timespan middle Carboniferous-Triassic| which allows definition of two cold (icehouse 1 : middle Carboniferous; icehouse 2: early Permian) and two warm episodes (greenhouse 1: late Carboniferous - earliest Permian; greenhouse 2: middle Permian - Triassic). The tectonic evolution of the central Pangean realm from Variscan to late Variscan| and finally to early Alpine offers an explanation for these climate oscillations| in terms of mountain building| extensional collapse| rifting| epeirogeny| volcanism| erosion| and exhumation. The cold periods were associated with orogenic (icehouse 1) or epeirogenic (icehouse 2) movements leading to uplift and erosion| and therefore| to CO2 output from the atmosphere. On the contrary| the warm periods were related to extension-related phenomena| such as volcanism| deep- and shallow-seated hydrothermal activity| unroofing of large-scale metamorphic core-complexes (greenhouse 1)| or vast exhumation of coal and pear deposits and volcanism (greenhouse 2)| all of them processes leading to massive input of CO2 into the atmosphere| hence| to global warming. 5118,1999,2,4,Temperature| salinity and food effects on asexual reproduction and abundance of the scyphozoan Chrysaora quinquecirrha,Outbreaks of jellyfish are reported worldwide| yet the environmental factors that control the sizes of jellyfish populations are not well understood. The scyphomedusan Chrysaora quinquecirrha occurs in the mesohaline portion of Chesapeake Bay each summer. Population sizes of the medusae show dramatic annual variations that are correlated with salinity and temperature. We measured the total numbers of ephyrae and polyps produced by benthic polyps of C. quinquecirrha in laboratory experiments lasting 42 d| and found that temperature (15| 20| 25 degrees C) was not a statistically significant factor at low salinities (5 to 20 parts per thousand); however| ephyra production increased significantly with increasing temperature at high salinities (20 to 35 parts per thousand). Conversely| each 5 degrees C: decrease in temperature delayed strobilation (ephyra production) by about 1 wk. Salinity significantly affected the numbers of ephyrae and polyps produced in all experiments. Ephyra and polyp production was lower at both low (<11 parts per thousand) and high salinities (greater than or equal to 25 parts per thousand) than at intermediate salinities. Also| more ephyrae| but| not polyps| were produced with more available prey. Medusa numbers were 2 orders of magnitude lower in July 1996 when water temperatures| salinities| and zooplankton densities in Chesapeake Bay all were lower than in July 1995. The effects of these factors are important in understanding the changes caused by human activities in near-shore ecosystems| including effects of global warming| eutrophication| and reduction of commercial species. 5023,1999,2,4,The Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and their projected changes under global warming,The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) are the leading modes of high-latitude variability in each hemisphere as characterized by the first EOF of mean sea-level pressure. Observations suggest a recent positive trend in the AO and it is speculated that this may be related to global warming. The CCCma coupled general circulation model control simulation exhibits a robust and realistic AO and AAO. Climate change simulations for the period 1900-2100| with forcing due to greenhouse gases and aerosols| exhibit positive trends in both the AO and the AAO. The model simulates essentially unchanged AO/AAO variations superimposed on a forced climate change pattern. The results do not suggest that a simulated trend in the AO/AAO necessarily depends on stratospheric involvement nor that forced climate change will be expressed as a change in the occurence of one phase of the AO/AAO over another. This pattern of climate change projects exclusively on the AAO pattern in the southern hemisphere but not in the northern hemisphere where other EOFs are involved. The extent to which this forced climate change pattern and the unforced modes of variation are determined by the same mechanisms and feedbacks remains an open question. 4969,1999,3,4,The Carbon-tax debate,This paper discusses recent topics related indirectly to energy production and marketing and related highly to energy policy and economy. These topics are: (1) background to carbon taxes including environmental issues - global warming and CO2 emissions| fuel substitution and the encouragement of non-hydrocarbon fuel use; (2) climate-change convention and related conferences including those at Rio de Janeiro - objectives and achievements| and Kyoto-objectives; (3) carbon-tax proposals| including implications for oil| coal and gas: (4) The OECD view including evolution of general taxes on hydrocarbons| the carbon tax as a government revenue-raising objective| CO2 emissions in the OECD; (5) the oil-producer's view including discrimination against oil| the impact on the incentives to use oil and gas; (6) the developing countries' view| including the need to increase fuel use for industrialisation| financial constraints on energy use| and CO2 emissions in the developing countries. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5082,1999,2,4,The dynamics of zooxanthellae populations: A long-term study in the field,Coral bleaching characterized by the expulsion of symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) is an increasing problem worldwide. Global warming has been implicated as one cause| but the phenomenon cannot be fully comprehended without an understanding of the variability of zooxanthellae populations in field conditions. Results from a 6-year field study are presented| providing evidence of density regulation but also of large variability in the zooxanthellae population with regular episodes of very Low densities. These bleaching events are Likely to be part of a constant variability in zooxanthellae density caused by environmental fluctuations superimposed on a strong seasonal cycle in abundance. 5004,1999,5,4,The Early Permian deglaciation event between East Africa and northwestern Australia,Late Palaeozoic glacigene deposits forming the base of the Gondwana megasequence are present along the entire length of the Tethyan margin of Gondwana. The lithology of the deposits in these sequences was controlled largely by the prevailing climate and this influence was imposed also upon early diagenesis. The change from the cold| glacial climate to the cool temperate| postglacial environment is reflected by a change from a mineralogically immature composition (arkosic chloritic) of the glacial periglacial sediments| to a mature| kaolinite pyrite quartz dominated lithofacies of the deglaciation deposits. A typical feature of the latter period is the appearance of black| kaolinitic lutites| usually with a high organic C content. From the many occurrences| only a few examples of typical deglaciation sequences are discussed in this paper| including Tanzania| southern Oman| the Lesser Himalaya| northwestern Australia and southwest China. Microflora and fauna demonstrate that all these deglaciation sequences are of Late Asselian to Early Sakmarian age| indicating that deglaciation along the Tethyan margin of Gondwana was| within the limit of the dating methods| a synchronuous event. A peak in sea level in the Late Sakmarian/Early Artinskian| experienced in all but one of the sections described| supports this statement. The high content of organic matter in the deglaciation deposits was caused by the sudden increase of bioproduction stimulated by higher temperatures and a high CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. A high input of organic material| combined with glacially overdeepened basin geometries| were responsible for the dominance of euxinic conditions during that period. The swift and synchronuous climatic amelioration cannot be explained by shifting pole positions| but only by rapid and substantial global warming. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Limited. All rights reserved. 5084,1999,2,2,The effect of experimental ecosystem warming on CO2 fluxes in a montane meadow,Climatic change is predicted to alter rates of soil respiration and assimilation of carbon by plants. Net loss of carbon from ecosystems would form a positive feedback enhancing anthropogenic global warming. We tested the effect of increased heat input| one of the most certain impacts of global warming| on net ecosystem carbon exchange in a Rocky Mountain montane meadow. Overhead heaters were used to increase the radiative heat flux into plots spanning a moisture and vegetation gradient. We measured net whole-ecosystem CO2 fluxes using a closed-path chamber system| relatively nondisturbing bases| and a simple model to compensate for both slow chamber leaks and the CO2 concentration-dependence of photosynthetic uptake| in 1993 and 1994. In 1994| we also measured soil respiration separately. The heating treatment altered the timing and magnitude of net carbon fluxes into the dry zone of the plots in 1993 (reducing uptake by approximate to 100 g carbon m(-2))| but had an undetectable effect on carbon fluxes into the moist zone. During a strong drought year (1994)| heating altered the timing| but did not significantly alter the cumulative magnitude| of net carbon uptake in the dry zone. Soil respiration measurements showed that when differences were detected in dry zone carbon Fluxes| they were caused by changes in carbon input from photosynthesis| not by temperature-driven changes in carbon output from soil respiration. When differences were detected in dry-zone carbon fluxes| they were caused by changes in carbon input from photosynthesis| not by a temperature-driven changes in carbon output from soil respiration. Regression analysis suggested that the reduction in carbon inputs from plants was due to a combination of two soil moisture effects: a direct physiological response to decreased soil moisture| and a shift in plant community composition from high-productivity species to low-productivity species that are more drought tolerant. These results partially support predictions that warming may cause net carbon losses from some terrestrial ecosystems. They also suggest| however| that changes in soil moisture caused by global warming may be as important in driving ecosystem response as the direct effects of increased soil temperature. 2228,1999,2,3,The effects of climate change and irrigation on criterion low streamflows used for determining total maximum daily loads,This paper addresses the possible impacts of global climate change on low streamflows in the Midwest| both directly| through lower precipitation| and indirectly| by rendering irrigation profitable in areas where it has found little application in the past. In the analysis presented here| streamflow data are altered to represent the effect of climate change and stream-supplied irrigation| and then used to estimate new values for two low-flow criteria| the one- and seven-day-ten-year low flows ((7)Q(10) and (1)Q(10)) Under 20 climate change and irrigation scenarios. Additionally| the frequencies of violation of these two criteria| and multiple violations in a three-year period| are determined. Results show that the potential impact of the assumed climate change scenarios on low flow standards is substantial. A 25 percent decrease in mean precipitation results in a 63 percent reduction in design now| even in the absence of irrigation. With irrigation| the reduction can be as much as 100 percent. The frequency of single violations of low flow criteria is found to increase several fold with irrigation. The frequency of multiple violations of low flow criteria in a three-year period is sensitive to climate change| increasing from around 20 percent to nearly 100 percent as the climate change becomes more severe. 5045,1999,2,4,The effects of elevated summer temperature and sublethal pollutants (ammonia| low pH) on protein turnover in the gill and liver of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) on a limited food ration,Protein synthesis| degradation and growth of the liver and gills were determined in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fed a limited ration and exposed for 90 days to normal or elevated summer temperatures (+2 degrees C above ambient) and either low pH (5.2) in softwater or 70 mu M total ammonia in hardwater. The limited ration resulted in low rates of growth (<0.80% per day) and protein synthesis in all fish. In softwater| whole-body growth was significantly inhibited by elevated temperature but stimulated by low pH| although tissue protein metabolism was generally unaffected by these treatments. There was no significant difference in final size between the groups of fish in hardwater| but liver protein synthesis and degradation were significantly lower at +2 degrees C| the reduction in synthesis being due to an inhibition of both the capacity for protein synthesis| C-s and the RNA translational efficiency| k(RNA). Gill protein metabolism was unaffected by the experimental treatments in trout in hardwater. The authors conclude that a global warming scenario would be detrimental to protein synthesis and growth in freshwater fish under conditions of food limitation in summer| and when late summer temperatures approached the upper thermal limit of the species| regardless of food availability. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. 5132,1999,3,3,The ethics of burden-sharing in the global greenhouse,The Kyoto Protocol on global warming has provoked great controversy in part because it calls for heavier burdens on wealthy countries than on developing countries in the effort to control climate change. The U.S. Senate voted unanimously to oppose any agreement that does not require emissions reductions in low-income countries. The ethics of this position are examined in this paper which shows that there are good moral reasons for supporting the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol. Such a conclusion follows easily from considerations of distributive justice but can also be supported by more narrowly self-interested arguments. 2303,1999,4,4,The evolution of mass balance models of persistent organic pollutant fate in the environment,Current approaches to modelling the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment have evolved in response to four dominant characteristics of these substances; namely: (1) the presence of POPs in virtually all environmental phases and the ease with which they move from one to the other requires multi-compartmental modelling. Describing transport across phase boundaries becomes as| or even more| important as quantifying transport within the phases; (2) POPs may persist in the environment for many decades. For chemicals that 'have time'| concepts such as equilibrium partitioning and steady-state become more important than for short-lived substances whose fate is more controlled by the rates of transformation; (3) measuring POPs is difficult and expensive and observed concentrations of POPs are not available in high spatial or temporal resolution. Consequently| high resolution tends not to be a high priority in POP models; and (4) detrimental effects of POPs often manifest themselves in top predators| which has led to a focus on modelling biotic uptake and transfer within food chains. The task of building a POPs model is viewed as combining the four 'building blocks' of partitioning| transport| transformation and source data with the help of the law of the conservation of mass. Process models| evaluative models| models of real local| regional and global fate| as well as biological uptake models are presented and references to numerous examples are provided. An attempt is made to forecast future directions in the field of POPs modelling. It is expected that modelling techniques that do not rely on quantitative emission estimates as well as approaches that take into account spatial| temporal and climatic variability as well as parameter uncertainty will increase in importance. Finally| the relationship between modelling POPs and models of other pollutant issues is addressed| as are potential interactions between POPs and pollutant issues such as eutrophication| acidification and global climate change. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5064,1999,3,3,The fate of CO2 hydrate released in the ocean,Disposal of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean has been considered as a method to counteract global warming. A desirable method of the ocean disposal is to convert the less dense liquefied CO2 into denser CO2 hydrate via a submerged hydrate crystallizer at a depth < 500 m. The fate of CO2 hydrate in the ocean has been investigated. It is shown in this study that hydrate particles released in the ocean are physicochemically unstable; however| hydrate decomposition occurs only as a surface phenomenon. Because CO2 hydrate is denser than seawater| hydrate particles will sink in the ocean. During the descending process| the hydrate particles dissolve gradually in seawater owing to decomposition occurring continuously at surfaces of hydrate particles. This dissolution fate of CO2 hydrate in the ocean is significantly different from the previous prediction that the disposed CO2 hydrate would exist as a long-lasting entity in the ocean. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 2285,1999,4,4,The frontier research system for global change - The International Arctic Research Center (Frontier-IARC): Its origin and tentative science plan,The Frontier Research System for Global Change-the International Arctic Research Center (Frontier-IARC) is a research program funded by the Frontier Research System for Global Change. The program is jointly run under a cooperative agreement between the Frontier Research System for Global Change and the University of Alaska Fairbanks. The aim of the program is to understand the role of the Arctic region in global climate change. The program concentrates its research effort initially on the areas of air-sea-ice interactions| bio-geochemical processes and the ecosystem. To understand the arctic climate system in the context of global climate change| we focus on mechanisms controlling arctic-subarctic interactions| and identify three key components: the freshwater balance| the energy balance| and the large-scab atmospheric processes. Knowledge of details of these components and their interactions will be gained through Long-term monitoring| process studies| and modeling; our focus will be on the Latter two categories. 2256,1999,2,4,The functional significance of leaf structure: a search for generalizations,The coupling between leaf structure and function is illustrated with reference to two examples| the C(4) photosynthetic pathway and leaf pubescence. A distinction is made between function and functional significance. The latter is defined as the role| significance or consequence of a structure| whereas the former is more simply the action that a structure is capable of performing. Using the two examples| four generalizations are made concerning the relationships between structure| function and functional significance: the functional significance of leaf structure is environment-dependent; the relationship between functional significance and structure is sometimes non-intuitive; functional equivalency means that there is often more than one 'solution' to the same 'constraint'; and the consequences of leaf structure can exert profound effects at levels of organization beyond those of the individual organism and may play a critical role in determining community structure and function| through interactions with other species and trophic levels. The importance of understanding the consequences in variation in leaf structure at the global scale is illustrated with reference to the issue of global climate change. 5025,1999,2,4,The influence of global warming in Earth rotation speed,The tendency of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is investigated using a 49-year set of monthly AAM data for the period January 1949-December 1997. This data set is constructed with zonal wind values from the reanalyses of NCEP/NCAR| used in conjunction with a variety of operationally produced AAM time series with different independent sources and lengths over 1976-1997. In all the analyzed AAM series the linear trend is found to be positive. Since the angular momentum of the atmosphere-earth system is conserved this corresponds to a net loss of angular momentum by the solid earth| therefore decreasing the Earth rotation speed and increasing the length of day (LOD). The AAM rise is significant to the budget of angular momentum of the global atmosphere-earth system; its value in milliseconds/century (ms/cy) is +0.56 ms/cy| corresponding to one-third of the estimated increase in LOD (+1.7 ms/cy). The major contribution to this secular trend in AAM comes from the equatorial Tropopause. This is consistent with results from a previous study using a simplified aqua-planet model to investigate the AAM variations due to near equatorial warming conditions. During the same time interval| 1949-1997| the global marine + land-surface temperature increases by about 0.79 degrees C/cy| showing a linear correspondence between surface temperature increase and global AAM of about 0.07 ms per 0.1 degrees C. These results imply that atmospheric angular momentum may be used as an independent index of the global atmosphere's dynamical response to the|greenhouse forcing| and as such| the length of day may be used as an indirect indicator of global warming. 5071,1999,2,3,The influence of soil processes on carbon isotope distribution and turnover in the British uplands,Understanding the natural variation of carbon within the soil| and between soil types| is crucial to improve predictive models of carbon cycling in high and mid-latitude ecosystems in response to global warming. We measured the carbon isotope distributions (C-12| C-13 and C-14) in soil organic matter (SOM) from Podzols| Brown Podzolic soils and Stagnohumic Gleysols from the British uplands| which were then compared with the total amounts and turnover of carbon in these soils. We did so by sampling at 2-cm intervals down six profiles of each soil type. The average amount of carbon stored in the top 28 cm of the Stagnohumic Gleysols is twice that of the other two soils. The C-13 content and C-14 age show a general increase with depth in all soils| and there is also a significant correlation between isotopic variation and the main pedogenic features. The latter suggests that soil-forming processes are significant in determining the carbon isotope signatures retained in SOM. Organic matter formed since 1960 is not found below 5 cm in any of the soils. Evidently organic detritus in the surface layers (LF and Oh) is rapidly mineralized. This accords with our modelled net annual C fluxes which show that more than 80% of the CO2 emanating from these soils is derived from the top 5 cm of each profile. Although these soils contain much carbon| they do not appear to assimilate and retain SOM rapidly. The mean residence time of most of their carbon is in the 2-50 years range| so the soils are fairly ineffective sinks for excess CO2 in the atmosphere. Under the predicted future 'greenhouse' climate| likely to favour more rapid microbial decomposition of organic materials| these soils are a potential source of CO2 and are therefore likely to accelerate global warming. 5099,1999,4,4,The interannual change of atmospheric CO2: contribution of subtropical ecosystems?,The global terrestrial carbon cycle model CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) is used to study the response of the terrestrial ecosystems to the large scale climate variations over the period 1980-1993. The global net carbon exchange flux with the atmosphere is calculated and compared with the terrestrial contribution derived from the deconvolution of the atmospheric CO2 and delta(13)C measurements. A fairly large CO2 biospheric source is predicted during the strong El Nino events of 1982-83 and 1986-87 as a consequence of the induced global warming. The direct and indirect temperature controls of the primacy production and respiration dominate the CO2 anomaly. An analysis of the relative contribution by latitudinal bands and ecosystems shows that low-latitude vegetation dominates the variability at the El Nino time scale. In savannas| the model indicates that the interannual changes result| to a large extent| from the control of soil water content on gross primary production (GPP). In the tropical cain forests| both respiration and GPP contribute to the response of the net biospheric flux. 5116,1999,3,4,The marginal costs of greenhouse gas emissions,Estimates of the marginal costs of greenhouse gas emissions are an important input to the decision how much society would want to spend on greenhouse gas emission reduction. Marginal cost estimates in the literature range between $5 and $25 per tonne of carbon. Using similar assumptions| the FUND model finds marginal costs of $9-23/tC| depending on the discount rate. If the aggregation of impacts over countries accounts for inequalities in income distribution or for risk aversion| marginal costs would rise by about a factor of 3. Marginal costs per region are an order of magnitude smaller than global marginal costs. The ratios between the marginal costs of CO2 and those of CH4 and N2O are roughly equal to the global warming potentials of these gases. The uncertainty about the marginal costs is large and right-skewed. The expected value of the marginal costs lies about 35% above the best guess| the 95-percentile about 250%. 5133,1999,4,3,The NIST quantitative infrared database,With the recent developments in Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometers it is becoming more feasible to place these instruments in field environments. As a result| there has been enormous increase in the use of FTIR techniques for a variety of qualitative and quantitative chemical measurements. These methods offer the possibility of fully automated real-time quantitation of many analytes; therefore FTIR has great potential as an analytical tool. Recently| the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA) has developed protocol methods for emissions monitoring using both extractive and open-path FTIR measurements. Depending upon the analyte| the experimental conditions and the analyte matrix| approximately 100 of the hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) listed in the 1990 U.S.EPA Clean Air Act amendment (CAAA) can be measured. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has initiated a program to provide quality-assured infrared absorption coefficient data based on NIST prepared primary gas standards. Currently| absorption coefficient data has been acquired for approximately 20 of the HAPs. For each compound| the absorption coefficient spectrum was calculated using nine transmittance spectra at 0.12 cm(-1) resolution and the Beer's law relationship. The uncertainties in the absorption coefficient data were estimated from the linear regressions of the transmittance data and considerations of other error sources such as the nonlinear detector response. For absorption coefficient values greater than 1 x 10(-4) mu mol/mol)(-1) m(-1) the average relative expanded uncertainty is 2.2 %. This quantitative infrared database is currently an ongoing project at NIST. Additional spectra will be added;to the database as they are acquired. Our current plans include continued data acquisition of the compounds listed in the CAAA| as well as the compounds that contribute to global warming and ozone depletion. 4949,1999,2,3,The potential impact of global warming on hail losses to winter cereal crops in New South Wales,This study was undertaken to determine the impact of potential global warming on the magnitude of hail losses to winter cereal crops within two areas situated on the western slopes of New South Wales| Australia. A model relating historical crop hail losses to climatic variables was developed for each area. These models included seasonal measures of vertical instability| low-level moisture and the height of the freezing level. In both areas| windshear was not found to be an important factor influencing seasonal crop hail losses. The two crop hail loss models were then used in conjunction with upper-air climatic data from three single mixed-layer global climate models (GCMs). Each GCM was run for 1 x CO2 conditions and for 2 x CO2 conditions. The enhanced greenhouse effect on climatic variables was taken to be the difference between their values for these two runs. Changes to climatic variables were then translated directly into changes in the percentage value of the winter cereal crop lost due to hail. In both areas| the three GCMs agreed concerning the direction of change in each of the variables used in the crop hail loss model. GCM simulations of the greenhouse effect resulted in a decline in winter cereal crop hail losses| with the exception of one GCM simulation at one location where losses increased slightly. None of the changes due to the enhanced greenhouse effect| however| were significant owing to a large observed seasonal variability of crop hail losses. Also| the simulated seasonal variability of crop hail losses did not change significantly due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. These results depended on two important assumptions. Firstly| it was assumed that the dominant relationships between climatic variables and crop hail losses in the past would remain the same in a future climate. Secondly| it was assumed that the single mixed-layer GCMs used in the study were correctly predicting climate change under enhanced greenhouse conditions. 5086,1999,2,4,The relationship between near-surface air temperature over land and the annual amplitude of the atmosphere's seasonal CO2 cycle,The seasonal growth and decay of Northern Hemispheric terrestrial vegetation creates a seasonal oscillation in the atmospheric CO2 concentration in the Northern Hemisphere. Over the past several decades| the amplitude of this seasonal cycle has risen substantially. Many potential causes of this phenomenon have been suggested; but the one that seems currently to be of most concern is global warming. This study thus seeks to determine if the rise in the near-surface air temperature of the past 35 years has been the major factor in driving the contemporaneous increase in the amplitude of the Northern Hemisphere's seasonal CO2 cycle. Annual CO2 amplitude data from ten Northern Hemispheric stations of the NOAA/CMDL continuous monitoring network were regressed against mean near-surface air temperatures over land areas located within each 5 degrees latitude band stretching from the equator to 85 degrees N. Temperature effects were non-existent when the CO2 amplitude and temperature data were contemporaneous| whereas they were maximal when the CO2 amplitude data lagged the temperature data by 2 years| declining slowly thereafter to become non-existent again between a lag time of 6-7 years. For the peak-impact 2-year lag situation| low-latitude temperatures were much more strongly correlated with the CO2 amplitude data than were mid- or high-latitude temperatures. The 2-year-lag results for Mauna Loa and Point Barrow indicate that Northern Hemispheric warming may have been responsible for about a fifth of the annual CO2 amplitude increase observed at Mauna Loa from 1960 to 1995 and approximately a tenth of the amplitude increase recorded at Point Barrow over this period. Consequently| the majority of the Northern Hemispheric CO2 amplitude increase appears to be due to the influence of some other factor or combination of factors| a number of which have been suggested in the literature. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
4912,1999,3,4,The role of international environmental agreements in metered dose inhaler technology changes,Introduced in the 1950s| metered dose inhalers (MDIs) became a revolutionary way to deliver medication directly to the lungs of patients with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Since their initial introduction| MDIs have used chlorofluorocarbons to propel the medication out of the canister into a patient's lungs. This article presents an overview of the global transition away from the use of chlorofluorocarbon propellants in MDIs to non-ozone-depleting substitutes including hydrofluoroalkane (outside of the pharmaceutical industry and in the context of Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol discussions| these gases are referred to as hydrofluorocarbons; hydrofluoroalkane-134a| for example| is referred to as hydrofluorocarbon-134a) propellants| in accordance with the terms of the international environmental agreement the Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer (the Montreal Protocol). This article will also describe the environmental characteristics of chlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluoroalkanes when they are used as MDI propellants. Finally| the article will review key provisions of the pending Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the Kyoto Protocol) that may affect the future of hydrofluoroalkanes. 2229,1999,3,4,The role of landfills in the United Kingdom,The paper describes the priority given to licensing in the control of waste management in the UK. It outlines both the historical and present day impact of EU legislation on UK practices and explains potential problems and benefits resulting from the implementation of the EU landfill directive. Basic waste data is given and some of the key factors underpinning waste regulation are delineated primarily sustainable development - but also land-use planning| groundwater protection and global climate change. The paper concludes by profiling the UK's lifecycle programme for waste management and its intended uses. 4940,1999,3,3,The role of methane in global warming: where might mitigation strategies be focused?,Anthropogenic sources of methane emissions are thought to be nearly twice as high as emissions from natural sources. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide| methane ought to be addressed by policy makers when they consider reductions of national greenhouse-gas inventories. This article first comprehensively reviews source and sink estimates of methane by natural and anthropogenic sectors (wetlands| wet-paddy rice farming| livestock farming| biomass burning| landfills| coal mining| and venting of natural gas or natural-gas pipeline leaks)| then proceeds to suggest where different mitigation strategies might be applied. The final section considers how the scenario of a warmer planet may affect the methane biogeochemical cycle. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2232,1999,2,3,The role of physical processes in determining the interdecadal variability of central Arctic sea ice,The importance of the Arctic region for global climate change has recently been highlighted in the results from general circulation model simulations under increasing atmospheric CO| scenarios. The warming that is predicted by these studies is most pronounced in the polar regions| indicating that it may be the first place in which the effects of global climate change will be detected. However| the natural variability that is present in the Arctic climate system is largely unknown and is likely to obscure the detection of anthropogenically forced changes. Additionally| there is little information on the internal processes of the Arctic ice pack| which are important for determining the variability of the ice cover. In an effort to address these issues| the variability of the Arctic ice volume is examined using a single column sea ice-ocean mixed layer model. The model contains an ice thickness distribution and the parameterization of export and ridging due to ice divergence and shear. Variability in the ice cover is forced by applying stochastic perturbations to the air temperature and ice divergence forcing fields. Several sensitivity tests are performed in order to assess the role of different physical processes in determining the variability of the perennial Arctic ice pack. It is found that the surface albedo and ice-ocean feedback mechanisms act to enhance the variability of the ice volume and are particularly important for the simulated response of the sea ice to fluctuations in air temperature| accounting for approximately 62% and 25% of the ice volume variance| respectively. The details of the ice thickness distribution also significantly affect the simulated variability. In particular| the ridging process acts to decrease the simulated variability of the ice pack. It reduces the variance of the ice volume by 50% when air temperature stochastic forcing is applied. 4994,1999,4,3,The role of water vapor feedback in unperturbed climate variability and global warming,To understand the role of water vapor feedback in unperturbed surface temperature variability| a version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled ocean-atmosphere model is integrated for 1000 yr in two configurations| one with water vapor feedback and one without. For all spatial scales| the model with water vapor feedback has more low-frequency (timescale greater than or equal to 2 yr) surface temperature variability than the one without. Thus water vapor feedback is positive in the context of the model's unperturbed variability. In addition| water vapor feedback is more effective the longer the timescale of the surface temperature anomaly and the larger its spatial scale. To understand the role of water vapor feedback in global warming| two 500-yr integrations were also performed in which CO2 was doubled in bath model configurations. The final surface global warming in the model with water vapor feedback is 3.38 degrees C| while in the one without it is only 1.05 degrees C. However| the model's water vapor feedback has a larger impact on surface warming in response to a doubling of CO2 than it does on internally generated| low-frequency| global-mean surface temperature anomalies. Water vapor feedback's strength therefore depends on the type of temperature anomaly it affects. The authors found that the degree to which a surface temperature anomaly penetrates into the troposphere is a critical factor in determining the effectiveness of its associated water vapor feedback. The more the anomaly penetrates| the stronger the feedback. It is also shown that the apparent impact of water vapor feedback is altered by other feedback mechanisms| such as albedo and cloud feedback. The sensitivity of the results to this fact is examined. Finally| the authors compare the local and global-mean surface temperature time series from both unperturbed variability experiments to the observed record. The experiment without water vapor feedback does not have enough global-scale variability to reproduce the magnitude of the variability in the observed global-mean record| whether or not one removes the warming trend observed over the past century. In contrast| the amount of variability in the experiment with water vapor feedback is comparable to that of the global mean record| provided the observed warming trend is removed. Thus| the authors are unable to simulate the observed levels of variability without water vapor feedback. 5128,1999,4,2,The Southern Ocean response to global warming in the CSIRO coupled ocean-atmosphere model,The Southern Ocean response to global warming is examined for a transient greenhouse gas integration using the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The ocean component includes the Gent and McWilliams scheme for adiabatic eddy-induced transport. The atmospheric equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2e) follows the IPCC/IS92a radiative forcing scenario from 1880 to 2082| and is then maintained at a constant value of three times the 1880 level for seven centuries. The simulated changes which occur in the Southern Ocean under global warming are very profound| and they begin to separate clearly from the background climate noise in the model's 1990s. A major reduction in the depth and extent of convective mixing occurs by the time of CO2e doubling (year 2033)| with near-cessation of convection by the time of CO2e tripling. Similarly major reduction occurs in the downwelling adjacent to Antarctica associated with Antarctic Bottom Water formation| which also nearly ceases by the time of CO2e tripling. These changes are associated with a marked reduction in surface density and salinity. By the time of CO2e tripling| both the pycnocline and halocline south from 60 degrees S intensify over the control by about a factor of four. The changes in surface salinity and density continue to intensify for several centuries during the subsequent period of elevated stable CO2e| and convection and Antarctic downwelling do not recover at all for the duration of the transient run. The water of the entire global ocean below about 1.5 km depth remains stagnant for the duration of the period of elevated stable CO2e| retaining a density which is too great to allow renewal from any source. Possible caveats on the realism of these results are discussed| and potential consequences of the above changes are noted. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5061,1999,2,2,The stability of the thermohaline circulation in global warming experiments,A simplified climate model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is used to perform extensive sensitivity studies concerning possible future climate change induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Supplemented with an active atmospheric hydrological cycle| experiments with different rates of CO2 increase and different climate sensitivities are performed. The model exhibits a threshold value of atmospheric CO2 concentration beyond which the North Atlantic Deep Water formation stops and never recovers. For a climate sensitivity that leads to an equilibrium warming of 3.6 degrees C for a doubling of CO2 and a rate of CO2 increase of 1% yr(-1)| the threshold lies between 650 and 700 ppmv. Moreover| it is shown that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the rate of increase of greenhouse gases. For a slower increase of atmospheric pCO(2) the final amount that can be reached without a shutdown of the circulation is considerably higher. This rate-sensitive response is due to the uptake of heat and excess freshwater from the uppermost layers to the deep ocean. The increased equator-to-pole freshwater transport in a warmer atmosphere is mainly responsible for the cessation of deep water formation in the North Atlantic. Another consequence of the enhanced latent heat transport is a stronger warming at high latitudes. A model version with fixed water vapor transport exhibits uniform warming at all latitudes. The inclusion of a simple parameterization of the ice-albedo feedback increases the model sensitivity and further decreases the pole-to-equator temperature difference in a greenhouse climate. The possible range of CO2 threshold concentrations and its dependency on the rate of CO2 increase| on the climate sensitivity| and on other model parameters are discussed. 4976,1999,2,4,The structural changes in bacterial communities of soddy gleysols caused by their drying,The structural changes in bacterial communities were investigated in the model experiment on the gradual decrease in moisture content for a soddy gleysol from the Central Forest State Biosphere Reserve under two different regimes. The slow drying in the desiccator caused a smooth decrease in bacterial population and diversity. Soil drying increased the relative generic abundance of actinobacteria and bacilli. The transformations identified in bacterial communities are expected to occur under natural conditions in the case of possible global warming. 4973,1999,3,3,The substitution of high-resolution terrestrial biosphere models and carbon sequestration in response to changing CO2 and climate,Strategies are developed to analyze and represent spatially resolved biosphere models for carbon sequestration in response to changes in atmospheric CO2 and climate by reduced-form| substitute models. We explore the High-Resolution Terrestrial Biosphere Model as implemented in the Community Terrestrial Biosphere Model (HRBM/CTBM)| the Frankfurt Biosphere Model (FBM)| and the box-type biosphere of the Bern model. Storage by CO2 fertilization is described by combining analytical representations of (1) net primary productivity (NPP) as a function of atmospheric CO2 and (2) a decay impulse response function to characterize the timescales of biospheric carbon turnover. Storage in response to global warming is investigated for the HRBM/CTBM. The relation between the evolution of radiative forcing and climate change is expressed by a combination of impulse response functions and empirical orthogonal functions extracted from results of the European Center/Hamburg (ECHAM3) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. A box-type| differential-analogue substitute model is developed to represent global carbon storage of the HRBM/CTBM in response to regional changes in Temperature| Precipitation and cloud cover. The substitute models represent the spatially resolved models accurately and cost-efficiently for carbon sequestration in response to changes in CO2 or in CO2 and climate and for simulations of the global isotopic signals. Deviations in carbon uptake simulated by the spatially resolved models and their substitutes are less than a few percent. 5022,1999,3,3,Toward marginal cost pricing of accident risk: the energy| travel| and welfare impacts of pay-at-the-pump auto insurance,This paper examines| theoretically and through a series of simulations| the effect of a pay-at-the-pump auto insurance system where the minimum amount of insurance required by California law is paid through a fuel surcharge. Vehicle fixed costs are reduced while variable costs increase. The results show that gasoline demand would be reduced by roughly two to five percent in 1998 (with greater percentage drops in later years)| while VMT would drop by slightly less as the incentive to drive more fuel efficient vehicles reduces exposure to the tax. At the same time| pay-at-the-pump is shown to improve the welfare of the average California driver as insurance is priced more efficiently. In other words| unlike other transportation pricing measures that have been proposed in the recent past (VMT and fuel taxes| pollution fees| etc.)| PATP may offer a means of reducing the external costs of transportation (global warming| congestion| etc.) without raising private costs for the average motorist. Another appealing aspect of PATP may be its apparently progressive nature-the lowest income households may see the highest gains in welfare. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5107,1999,2,3,Transferring soils from high- to low-elevation forests increases nitrogen cycling rates: climate change implications,We assessed the potential impact of global warming resulting from a doubling of preindustrial atmospheric CO2 on soil net N transformations by transferring intact soil cores (0-15 cm) from a high-elevation old-growth forest to a forest about 800 m lower in elevation in the central Oregon Cascade Mountains| USA. The lower elevation site had mean annual air and soil (10-cm mineral soil depth) temperatures about 2.4 and 3.9 degrees C higher than the high-elevation site| respectively. Annual rates of soil net N mineralization and nitrification more than doubled in soil transferred to the low-elevation site (17.2-36.0 kg N ha(-1) and 5.0-10.7 kg NO3--N ha(-1)| respectively). Leaching of inorganic N from the surface soil tin the absence of plant uptake) also increased. The reciprocal treatment (transferring soil cores from the low- to the high-elevation site) resulted in decreases of about 70| 80| and 65% in annual rates of net N mineralization| nitrification| and inorganic N leaching| respectively. Laboratory incubations of soils under conditions of similar temperature and soil water potential suggest that the quality of soil organic matter is higher at the high-elevation site. Similar in situ rates of soil net N transformations between the two sites occurred because the lower temperature counteracts the effects of greater substrate quantity and quality at the high elevation site. Our results support the hypothesis that high-elevation| old-growth forest soils in the central Cascades have higher C and N storage than their low-elevation analogues primarily because low temperatures limit net C and N mineralization rates at higher elevations. 5092,1999,2,4,Understanding and prediction of soil microbial community dynamics under global change,The review deals with quantitative descriptions of soil microbial processes in northern terrestrial ecosystems and predictions of their possible modifications under anticipated global changes. The main focus is the dependence of population dynamics of soil microorganisms on environmental factors. To simulate microbial dynamics| mechanistic mathematical models are suggested which summarize the contemporary information on physiology and molecular biology of organisms representing different life strategies. The major independent environmental factors were clustered into three main groups: (i) soil mineral resources (available and deposited biogenic elements); (ii) factors related to solar radiation (sunlight| clouds| temperature| active layer| UVB); and (iii) factors affecting gas and liquid mass transfer (soil texture and porosity| vascular transfer| water regime). The quality and amount of organic matter which provide the sources of C and energy for most soil microorganisms are considered as dependent variables and can be generated by simulation models as a product of biosynthetic activity of plants and microorganisms. A strong interaction between different factors has been demonstrated| e.g. temperature and amount of available C nutrients which can be explained in physiological terms. The simulation of the tundra microbial community revealed its relatively high stability to global warming. Elevated temperatures and input of dead organic matter relieved the pressure of L-selection and accelerated an aerobic decomposition of dead organic matter (plant litter| soil humus). (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. 5017,1999,3,2,Using science to advocate action on climate change,Climate change is probably the greatest threat to global ecosystems that humanity has ever faced. Greenhouse gases| primarily from the production and combustion of fossil fuels for human energy needs| are heating up our atmosphere| changing our climate| and threatening the health and well-being of people the world over. Pre dieted consequences of climate change include more frequent extreme weather events such as intensive precipitation| drought and floods| rising sea levels| increased smog in cities| and the possible spread of tropical diseases to more temperate dimes. These grim effects can be limited if societies throughout the world act quickly to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Substantially reducing emissions| however| means a fundamental shift in the way we produce and consume energy. To help bring about change| scientists| health professionals and nongovernment organizations such as the David Suzuki Foundation must work together to educate and motivate the public| industries| business organizations| and governments to take actions that will reduce the threat of global warming. 2238,1999,5,4,Variability in Late Cretaceous climate and deep waters: evidence from stable isotopes,Strong climatic and temperature fluctuations mark the Late Campanian and Maastrichtian as indicated by stable isotope records from the equatorial Pacific (Site 463) and middle and high latitude South Atlantic (Sites 525| 689 and 690). The first major global cooling decreased intermediate water temperatures (IWT) by 5-6 degrees C between 73-70 Ma. At the same time| sea surface temperature (SST) decreased by 4-5 degrees C in middle and high latitudes. Intermediate waters (TW) temporarily warmed by 2 degrees C in low and middle latitudes between 70-68.5 Ma. Global cooling resumed between 68.5-65.5 Ma when IWT decreased by 3-4 degrees C and SST by 5 degrees C in middle latitudes. About 450 ka before the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary rapid global warming increased IWT and SST by 3-4 degrees C| though SST in the tropics changed little. During the last 200 ka of the Maastrichtian| climate cooled rapidly with IWT and SST decreasing by 2-3 degrees C. During the global cooling at 71-70 Ma and possibly at 67-65.5 Ma| the sources of cold intermediate waters in the equatorial Pacific| Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic were derived from the high latitude North Pacific. In contrast| during the global climate warming between 65.2-65.4 Ma| the middle latitude South Atlantic was closest to the source of IW production and implies that the low latitude Tethys played a major role in global climate change. Climate changes| sea-level fluctuations and associated restricted seaways appear to be the most likely mechanisms for the alternating sources of IW production. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 4975,1999,3,4,Vegetable oils for biofuels versus surfactants: an ecological comparison for energy and greenhouse gases,This paper compares the use of vegetable oils as energy carriers on the one hand and for the production of chemicals on the other hand. The bio-based energy carriers analyzed are rapeseed oil| rapeseed oil methyl ester| and palm oil methyl ester| all of which can be used as substitutes for diesel fuel. The chemicals studied are surfactants. Surfactants can be produced from plant-based feedstocks (oleochemical surfactants) and from petrochemicals. The various options are studied with regard to two ecological indicators| i.e. the consumption of finite energy resources and the global warming potential. First of all| for these two aspects plant-based sources show clear advantages when compared with their fossil counterparts. Secondly| the transesterified types of biofuels are more advantageous than pure vegetable oils. Thirdly| the conservation of finite energy and reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases are higher if vegetable oils are used as a feedstock to produce oleochemical surfactants compared to their use as biofuels. Comprehensive lift-cycle analyses must be carried our in order to determine whether these results can also be applied to other ecological indicators. The results presented in this paper support developing strategic goals for bio-based feedstocks| including quantity and cost targets. 5103,1999,4,3,Volatile anaesthetics and the atmosphere: atmospheric lifetimes and atmospheric effects of halothane| enflurane| isoflurane| desflurane and sevoflurane,The atmospheric lifetimes of the halogenated anaesthetics halothane| enflurane| isoflurane| desflurane and sevoflurane with respect to reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH) and UV photolysis have been determined from observations of OH reaction kinetics and UV absorption spectra. Rate coefficients for the reaction with OH radicals for all halogenated anaesthetics investigated ranged from 0.44 to 2.7 x 10(-14) cm(3) molec(-1) s(-1). Halothane| enflurane and isoflurane showed distinct UV absorption in the range 200-350 nm. In contrast| no absorption in this wavelength range was detected for desflurane or sevoflurane. The total atmospheric lifetimes| as derived from both OH reactivity and photolysis| were 4.0-21.4 yr. it has been calculated that up to 20% of anaesthetics enter the stratosphere. As a result of chlorine and bromine content| the ozone depletion potential (ODP) relative to chlorofluorocarbon CFC-11 varies between 0 and 1.56| leading to a contribution to the total ozone depletion in the stratosphere of approximately 1% for halothane and 0.02% for enflurane and isoflurane. Estimates of the greenhouse warming potential (GWP) relative to CFC-12 yield values of 0.02-0.14| resulting in a relative contribution to global warming of all volatile anaesthetics of approximately 0.03%. The stratospheric impact of halothane| isoflurane and enflurane and their influence on ozone depletion is of increasing importance because of decreasing chlorofluorocarbons globally. However| the influence of volatile anaesthetics on greenhouse warming is small. 4926,1999,2,3,Water resources implications of global warming: A US regional perspective,The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic| as well as institutional and social settings. Large| multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River| Missouri River| Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers)| small| one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid| and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred| using a chain of climate downscaling| hydrologic and water resources systems models| the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation| temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO2 scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma| Columbia| Missouri and| to a lesser extent| Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems| spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase| on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems| where snow plays a minor hydrological role| changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system| from GCM to GCM| and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production| municipal and industrial supply| flood control| recreation| navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO2 scenario. In terms of streamflow| one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites| while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally| the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites| the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons. 4915,1999,2,4,Weather and climate extremes| climate change| and planning - Views of community water system managers in Pennsylvania's Susquehanna River Basin,This research examines the sensitivity and vulnerability of community water systems (CWSs) to weather and climate in the Pennsylvania portion of the Susquehanna River Basin. Three key findings emerge from a survey of 506 CWS managers. First| CWSs are sensitive to extreme weather and climate| but that sensitivity is determined more by type of system than system size. CWSs that rely partly or wholly on surface water face more disruptions than do groundwater systems. Larger systems have more problems with flooding| and size is not a significant determinant of outages from storms or disruptions from droughts. Second| CWS managers are unsure about global warming. Few managers dismiss global warming; most think global warming could be a problem but are unwilling to consider it in their planning activities until greater scientific certainty exists. Third| the nature of the CWS| its sensitivity to weather and climate| and projected risks from weather and climate are insignificant determinants of how managers plan. Experienced| full-time managers are more likely to consider future weather and climate scenarios in their planning| while inexperienced and part-time managers are less likely to do so. Implications of these findings include support for efforts to move away from surface water| for clear communication of climate change information| and for the hiring and retention of full-time professional CWS managers. 4905,1999,2,3,Weeds| insects| and diseases,The geographic distribution| vigor| virulence| and agricultural impact of weeds| insects| and plant pathogens will be affected by climatic changes accompanying the global "greenhouse effect." Weed/crop competitive interactions| particularly among species differing in photosynthetic pathway (C(3) v C(4))| may be altered| with the C(3) species favored by increasing CO(2). Physiological and biochemical changes induced in host crop plants by rising CO(2) may affect feeding patterns of pest insects. Compilation of climatic thresholds for phenological development of pest insects reveals the potential for shifts in pest behavior induced by global warming and other climatic change. Generation times may be reduced| enabling more rapid population increases to occur. Poleward migration may be accelerated during the crop season. The epidemiology of plant diseases also will be altered. Prediction of disease outbreaks will be more difficult in periods of rapidly changing climate and unstable weather. Environmental instability and increased incidence of extreme weather may reduce the effectiveness of pesticides on targeted pests or result in more injury to non-target organisms. Biological control may be affected either negatively or positively. Overall| the challenge to agriculture from pests probably will increase. 4901,1999,2,4,Wetter isn't better: global warming and food security in the Congo Basin,Over 20 million forest farmers practice slash and burn agriculture in the forests of the Congo Basin (Bahuchet and de Maret| 1995. State of Indigenous Populations Living in Rainforest Areas| European Commission DG XI Environment| Brussels). They rely on the long dry season (December-February north of the equator) to ensure that their new fields| cleared from regrowth forest| burn sufficiently well to deposit nutrients into the soil and to minimize the labor required to prepare the field for planting. Data from the Ituri forest in northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo show that the strength of the annual dry season (a) has a direct positive impact on the size of fields cleared each year by slash and burn farmers| and consequently on food production and the severity of the subsequent year's pre-harvest hunger period; and (b) is inversely related to total annual rainfall. These results suggest that the 1 mm/d increase in rainfall predicted for much of the Congo Basin by the 2050s may cause a basin wide increase in the frequency of heavy rains during the dry season| causing a reduction in the size of slash and burn farmers' fields| and potentially a substantial increase in the food insecurity of poor rural families across the region. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2241,1999,4,4,What shall we do with the data we are expecting from upcoming earth observation satellites?,The community of researchers studying global climate change is preparing to launch the first Earth observing system (EOS) satellite| EOS Terra. The satellite will generate huge amounts of data| filling gaps in the information available to address critical questions about Earth's climate. But many data handling and data analysis problems must be solved if we are to make best use of the new measurements. In key areas| the experience and expertise of the statistics community could be of great help. 5080,1999,4,4,Why is the global warming proceeding much slower than expected?,Upper air observations from radiosondes and microwave satellite instruments does not indicate any global warming during the last 19 years| contrary to surface measurements| where a warming trend is supposedly being found. This result is somewhat difficult to reconcile| since climate model experiments do indicate a reverse trend| namely| that upper tropospheric air should warm faster than the surface. To contribute toward an understanding of this difficulty| we have here undertaken some specific experiments to study the effect on climate due to the decrease in stratospheric ozone and the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991. The associated forcing was added to the forcing from greenhouse gases| sulfate aerosols (direct and indirect effect)| and tropospheric ozone| which was investigated in a separate series of experiments. Furthermore| we have undertaken an ensemble study in order to explore the natural variability of an advanced climate model exposed to such a forcing over 19 years. The result shows that the reduction of stratospheric ozone cools not only the lower stratosphere but also the troposphere| in particular| the upper and middle part. In the upper troposphere the cooling from stratospheric ozone leads to a significant reduction of greenhouse warming. The modeled stratospheric aerosols from Mount Pinatubo generate a climate response (stratospheric warming and tropospheric cooling) in good agreement with microwave satellite measurements. Finally| analysis of a series of experiments with both stratospheric ozone and the Mount Pinatubo effect shows considerable variability in climate response| suggesting that an evolution having no warming in the period is as likely as another evolution showing modest warming. However| the observed trend of no warming in the midtroposphere and clear warming at the surface is not found in the mode! simulations. 5065,1999,3,4,World population and energy demand growth: the potential role of fusion energy in an efficient world,The fertility rate for women and the related population growth rate for numerous developing (transitional) countries show a downward trend with increasing annual per capita energy use. On the assumption that such trends will continue| estimates are made for some simple cases of the energy demands required to stabilize the world's population in the period 2100-2150. An assessment is made of how these energy demands might be met| capitalizing as much as possible on the indigenous energy resources for each of the ten major regions of the world: North America| Latin America| Europe OECD| Former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe| China| Pacific OECD| East Asia| South Asia| Africa| and the Middle East. Consideration is also given to the potential need to limit carbon emissions because of global-warming concerns. The study highlights the crucial nature of energy-efficiency improvements and the need to use all energy sources if the world is to find a sustainable future with a much improved standard of living in the developing world. While| globally| there are huge resources of fossil fuels| they are unevenly distributed and some of the areas experiencing major population growth are not well endowed with them. Even allowing for the substantial deployment of renewable energies (biomass| geothermal| hydro-|tide| wave and wind power)| if fossil-fuel use is restricted or has limited availability| there will be a need in a number of regions (e.g. South Asia) for substantial amounts of nuclear and solar energy to meet their long-term needs. The deployment of more fission power can build upon the existing successes. The availability of fusion power will depend upon the pace of the development program and| in principle| fusion-power deployment might start around the middle of the 21st century. Example scenarios of possible contributions of the various energy sources are described| to illustrate the potential roles for fission and fusion power. 5294,2000,3,4,A co-evolutionary approach to climate change impact assessment: Part I. Integrating socio-economic and climate change scenarios,Climate change policies currently pay disproportionately greater attention to the mitigation of climate change through emission reductions strategies than to adaptation measures. Realising that the world is already committed to some global warming| policy makers are beginning to turn their attention to the challenge of preparing society to adapt to the unfolding impacts at the local level. This two-part article presents an integrated| or 'co-evolutionary'| approach to using scenarios in adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Part I explains how climate and social scenarios can be integrated to better understand the inter-relationships between a changing climate and the dynamic evolution of social| economic and political systems. The integrated scenarios are then calibrated so that they can be applied 'bottom up' to local stakeholders in vulnerable sectors of the economy. Part I concludes that a co-evolutionary approach (1) produces a more sophisticated and dynamic account of the potential feedbacks between natural and human systems; (2) suggests that sustainability indicators are both a potentially valuable input to and an output of integrated scenario formulation and application. Part II describes how a broadly representative sample of public| private and voluntary organisations in the East Anglian region of the UK responded to the scenarios| and identifies future research priorities. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5302,2000,2,4,A comparative analysis of the upper thermal tolerance limits of eastern Pacific porcelain crabs| genus Petrolisthes: Influences of latitude| vertical zonation| acclimation| and phylogeny,Marine intertidal organisms are subjected to a variety of abiotic stresses| including aerial exposure and wide ranges of temperature. Intertidal species generally have higher thermal tolerance limits than do subtidal species| and tropical species have higher thermal tolerance limits than do temperate species. The adaptive significance of upper thermal tolerance limits of intertidal organisms| however| has not been examined within a compar- ative context. Here| we present a comparative analysis of the adaptive significance of upper thermal tolerance limits in 20 congeneric species of porcelain crabs| genus Petrolisthes| from intertidal and subtidal habitats throughout the eastern Pacific. Upper thermal tolerance limits are positively correlated with surface water temperatures and with maximal microhabitat temperatures. Analysis of phylogenetically independent contrasts (from a phylogenetic tree on the basis of the 16s rDNA gene sequence) suggests that upper thermal tolerance limits have evolved in response to maximal microhabitat temperatures. Upper thermal tolerance limits increased during thermal acclimation at elevated temperatures| the amount of increase being greater for subtidal than for intertidal species. This result suggests that the upper thermal tolerance limits of some intertidal species may be near current habitat temperature maxima| and global warming thus may affect the distribution limits of intertidal species to a greater extent than for subtidal species. 5350,2000,2,4,A geometric glacier model for sea-level change calculations,Towards accounting for the dynamic response of glaciers and ice caps in the estimation of their contribution to sea-level rise due to global warming| a mass-balance degree-day model is coupled to a geometric glacier model. The ice dynamics are treated implicitly in the geometric model by using scaling parameters that have been extensively investigated in the literature. The model is tested by presenting a case-study of the glacier Hintereisferner| Austrian Alps. The results are compatible with geomorphological data and other modelling studies. An estimate is made of the volume decrease due to initial disequilibrium. An extensive sensitivity study using generalized glacier shapes and sizes allows a comparison of results with dynamic theory. According to the geometric model| glaciers with a narrowing channel change more with a change in mass balance than glaciers with a widening channel| due to their shape and the way in which that shape changes with a changing climate. Also their response ti:me is longer. As time progresses after a mass-balance perturbation| the longer response time for continental glaciers compared to glaciers with larger mass turnover offsets the effect of their smaller static sensitivity. Thus| although for the next century we may expect greater changes in volume from alpine glaciers| the equilibrium or committed change is greater for the continental glaciers. 5237,2000,5,4,A giant vampire (Mammalia| Chiroptera) in the Late Holocene from the Argentinean pampas: paleoenvironmental significance,The first fossil desmodontine record and the only well documented chiropteran fossil record from Argentina is described. A complete left upper canine was collected at Centinela del Mar (38 degrees 21'S58 degrees W| General Alvarado County| Buenos Aires Province) from fossil-bearing sediments referred to the Late Holocene. The tooth size is 25% larger than that of the modern vampire bat. Desmodus rotundus. We assign this tooth to Desmodus cf. D. draculae| an extinct species recorded in the Pleistocene-Holocene of South America (Brazil and Venezuela). The southernmost distribution of present-day Desmodus extends to northeast Buenos Aires province (35 degrees S). The presence of Desmodus some 600 km south of this present-day limit (July minimal isotherm of 10 degrees C) indicates that around 300 years BP the southeastern Buenos Aires province was at least 2 degrees C higher than modern July isotherm. The Desmodus tooth is associated with sigmodontine rodents characteristic of subtropical and temperate-warm areas (e.g.| Pseudoryzomys simplex| Bibimys cf. B. torresi)| and provides additional evidence to support this hypothesis. A correlation with a global warming phase is discussed. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5206,2000,2,4,A model analysis of the relationship between climate perturbations and carbon budget anomalies in global terrestrial ecosystems: 1970 to 1997,We performed a model analysis of the effect of climatic perturbations from 1970 to 1997 on the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems at the global scale. The model| Sim-CYCLE| enabled us to simulate carbon storage in terrestrial pools and monthly carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and the biosphere| e.g| photosynthesis| respiration| decomposition| and net ecosystem production (NEP). For the global analysis| we adopted the Matthews biome distribution map (12 biome types) and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis climate dataset| which is at a spatial resolution of T62 (5828 land cells). During the 28 yr experimental period| global NEP showed considerable climate-induced interannual anomalies (Delta NEPs) ranging from -2.06 Pg C yr(-1) (source) in 1983 to +2.25 (sink) Pg C yr(-1) in 1971| being sufficiently large to give rise to anomalies in the atmospheric CO(2) concentration from +0.97 to -1.06 ppmv. Regression analyses demonstrated the following: (1) annual Delta NEPs had the highest correlation (r(2) = 0.38) with the temperature anomaly at the global scale; (2) the anomalies in precipitation resulted in a considerable Delta NEP in northern high and middle regions; (3) an anomalous global warming by +1 degreesC brought about a negative Delta NEP of -2.7 Pg C yr(-1); (4) the responsiveness was primarily attributable to the temperature sensitivities of plant respiration and: soil decomposition| and secondarily to the moisture sensitivity of decomposition; and (5) the temperature dependence of Delta NEP had a clear seasonality| i.e. most sensitive in July to September (summer in the northern hemisphere) relative to other seasons. In 1983| when an ENSO event happened and the tropical zone was anomalously hot (0.4 degreesC above the longterm mean)| the largest negative Delta NEP (-2.06 Pg C yl-l) was estimated. On the other hand| in 1971| when global mean temperature was relatively low (0.2 degreesC below the long-term mean)| the largest positive Delta NEP (+2.25 Pg C y(-1)) was estimated. Furthermore| in 1992| when an anomalous cooling during the growing period (0.3 degreesC below the long-term mean) was caused by the Mt. Pinatubo eruption (June 1991)| a considerable positive Delta NEP (+1.14 Pg C yr(-1)) was estimated. The climate dependencies of global terrestrial ecosystems analyzed here may contain significant implications not only for the present functioning of atmosphere-biosphere carbon exchange| but also for ongoing global warming. 5229,2000,2,4,A modelling analysis of the genetic variation of phenology between tree populations,1 The phenology of temperate woody plants is commonly assumed to be locally adapted to climate. 2 However| the high gene flow expected in forest tree species| the high between year variance of thermal conditions at a given place and the high plasticity of phenology regarding temperature| lead us to hypothesize that genetic variation of phenology between populations is likely to be insignificant for many lowland tree species. 3 Using phenological models| we investigated variation in the timing of flowering between locations for four European clonal tries and between different populations of a further five species. 4 Models were also used to study the responses of the different populations to climate change by simulating transfers of each population to different locations. 5 While clinal variations can be observed in the phenological response to temperature between populations| only one species (Corylus avellana) showed significantly different responses between populations and even then only one of three populations could be separated from the others. 6 Hypothetical transfers show that the differences observed between populations depend on the thermal conditions at the location of transfer| and that these differences are less marked in warmer conditions. 7 Our results indicate that local adaptation will probably not be a serious constraint in predicting the phenological responses of temperate lowland tree species to global warming. 5244,2000,4,4,A monthly stream flow model for estimating the potential changes of river runoff on the projected global warming,Hydrological processes in high altitude mountainous regions differ from those in more temperate regions| primarily due to such influences as cold temperatures| large and rapid change in surface energy balance during snowmelt| a long period at low-temperature environmental condition and the existence of permafrost. A physically based| semi-distributed water balance model to quantitatively simulate the hydrological processes and stream flow| as well as to estimate the potential consequences of projected global warming on stream Row for such high altitude mountainous regions was constructed. Distributed meteorological data from the interpolation of the point measurements by means of a digital elevation model (DEM) of the basin| such as air temperature| precipitation| snowfall ratio| wind speed| etc.| have been used as model input. Several other hydrological parameters| such as soil moisture content and evapotranspiration| which are essential in simulation of river runoff in a water balance state| were estimated by the combination of Landsat TM and a DEM with the utilization of the distributed meteorological data. The model uses only a few crucial parameters for calibration| and the model structure is based upon estimating the stream flow components. Simulated results of spatially distributed soil moisture content| evapotranspiration and monthly discharge yield reasonable agreement| both spatially and temporally| to the field observations or the estimated results by the other approaches. This physically based model has the potential to project stream flow under the possible climate scenarios. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 5304,2000,3,4,A novel type of catalytic copper cluster in nitrous oxide reductase,Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) is a greenhouse gas| the third most significant contributor to global warming. As a key process for N(2)O elimination from the biosphere| N(2)O reductases catalyze the two-electron reduction of N(2)O to N(2). These 2 x 65 kDa copper enzymes are thought to contain a CuA electron entry site| similar to that of cytochrome c oxidase| and a CuZ catalytic center. The copper anomalous signal was used to solve the crystal structure of N(2)O reductase from Pseudomonas nautica by multiwavelength anomalous dispersion| to a resolution of 2.4 Angstrom. The structure reveals that the CuZ center belongs to a new type of metal cluster| in which four copper ions are liganded by seven histidine residues. N(2)O binds to this center via a single copper ion. The remaining copper ions might act as an electron reservoir| assuring a fast electron transfer and avoiding the formation of dead-end products. 5285,2000,4,3,A regime view of northern hemisphere atmospheric variability and change under global warming,The leading mode of wintertime variability in Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure (SLP) is the Arctic Oscillation (AO). It is usually obtained using linear principal component analysis| which produces the optimal| although somewhat restrictive| linear approximation to the SLP data. Here we use a recently introduced nonlinear principal component analysis to find the optimal nonlinear approximation to SLP data produced by a 1001 year integration of the CCCma coupled general circulation model (CGCM1). This approximation's associated time series is strongly bimodal and partitions the data into two distinct regimes. The first and more persistent regime describes a standing oscillation whose signature in the mid-troposphere is alternating amplification and attenuation of the climatological ridge over Northern Europe; with associated decreasing and increasing daily variance over Northern Eurasia. The second and more episodic regime describes a split-flow south of Greenland with much enhanced daily variance in the Arctic. In a 500 year integration with atmospheric CO2 stabilized at concentrations projected for year 2100| the occupation statistics of these preferred modes of variability change| such that the episodic split-flow regime occurs less frequently while the standing oscillation regime occurs more frequently. 5173,2000,2,4,A relict population of Fagus grandifolia var. mexicana at the Acatlan Volcano| Mexico: structure| litterfall| phenology and dendroecology,Aim Fagus grandifolia var. mexicana (Martinez) Little has an extraordinarily restricted distribution in the Mexican montane cloud forests. Isolated Fagus (beech) populations have been recorded in less than 10 small areas (2-40 ha) in the eastern Sierra Madre at altitudes from 1400 to 2000 m. The objectives were to determine tree and seedling age| forest structure| phenology| litterfall patterns and the relationship between mast and climatic variables. Location We report on three Fagus stands at the Acatlan Volcano| Veracruz| Mexico. Methods Changes in forest cover were determined using aerial photographs. Within each stand| basal area| density and tree species composition were determined in a 0.1-ha band transect. Additionally| litterfall production was quantified and phenophases were recorded monthly over a 3-year period| and 60 tree cores were collected to determine age distribution and tree-ring growth. Results The forest was atypical in several respects. Fagus was the only dominant tree species in the crater stand| although in the rim and at the top of the volcano it was codominant with other tree species. Juveniles occurred only on the rim| but there was a seedling bank in the crater. Although forest cover in the area increased between 1968 and 1993| the Fagus stands did not change in size. Leaf production peaked in March and April| and leaf fail occurred from October through February. Litterfall production was the highest in November. During mast years| flowering started in February and between mast events there were no flowers or fruits. Minimum temperatures were highly correlated with Fagus litterfall and leaf fall. Seedlings ranged in age from 2 to 18 years and were 13-60 cm tall. Tree cores ranged from 76 to 120 years| but trees were older than the core samples. Main conclusions Although beech is considered a gap regeneration species that reaches the canopy after alternating periods of release and suppression| the trees in the crater were released when less than 1.5 m tall and have suffered few periods of suppression since. The results indicate that the crater stand was established after a severe disturbance destroyed the existing forest. We conclude that the relict beech population should be able to maintain itself| if not severely disturbed by humans or by climatic changes related to global warming. 5371,2000,2,4,A sensitivity study of the thermodynamic environment on GFDL model hurricane intensity: Implications for global warming,In this study| the effect of thermodynamic environmental changes on hurricane intensity is extensively investigated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model for a suite of experiments with different initial upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies up to +/-4 degrees C and sea surface temperatures ranging from 26 degrees to 31 degrees C given the same relative humidity profile. The results indicate that stabilization in the environmental atmosphere and sea surface temperature (SST) increase cause opposing effects on hurricane intensity. The offsetting relationship between the effects of atmospheric stability increase (decrease) and SST increase (decrease) is monotonic and systematic in the parameter space. This implies that hurricane intensity increase due to a possible global warming associated with increased CO2 is considerably smaller than that expected from warming of the oceanic waters alone. The results also indicate that the intensity of stronger (weaker) hurricanes is more (less) sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes. The model-attained hurricane intensity is found to be well correlated with the maximum surface evaporation and the large-scale environmental convective available potential energy. The model-attained hurricane intensity is highly correlated with the energy available from wet-adiabatic ascent near the eyewall relative to a reference sounding in the undisturbed environment for all the experiments. Coupled hurricane-ocean experiments show that hurricane intensity becomes less sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes since the ocean coupling causes larger (smaller) intensity reduction for stronger (weaker) hurricanes. This implies less increase of hurricane intensity related to a possible global warming due to increased CO2. 5300,2000,4,4,A simple coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land surface model for climate and paleoclimate studies,The authors develop a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land surface: model for long-term climate change studies that incorporates the seasonal cycle. Three ocean basins. the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region| and the major continents are resolved. The model variables are sectorially averaged across the different ocean basins and continents. The atmosphere is represented by an energy-moisture balance model in which the meridional energy and moisture transports are parameterized by a combination of advection and diffusion processes. The zonal heat transport between land and ocean obeys a diffusion law| while the zonal moisture transport is parameterized so that the ocean always supplies moisture to the land. The ocean model is due to Wright and Stocker| and the sea ice model is a zero-layer thermodynamic one in which the ice thickness and concentration are predicted by the methods of Semtner and Hibler| respectively. In the land surface model| the temperature is predicted by an energy budget equation| similar to Ledley's| while the soil moisture and river runoff are predicted by Manabe's bucket model. The above model components are coupled together using flux adjustments in order to first simulate the present day climate. The major features of this simulation are consistent with observations and the general results of GCMs. However| it is found that a diffusive law for heat and moisture transports fives better results in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Sensitivity experiment| show that in a global warming (cooling) experiment| the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic Ocean is weakened (intensified) due to the increased (reduced) moisture transport to the northern high latitudes and the warmer (cooler) SST at northern high latitudes. Last| the coupled model is employed to investigate the initiation of glaciation by slowly reducing the solar radiation and increasing the planetary emissivity| only in the northern high latitudes. When land ice is growing| the THC in the North Atlantic Ocean is intensified| resulting in a warm subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. which is in agreement with the observations of Ruddiman and McIntyre. The intensified THC maintains a large land-ocean thermal contrast at high latitudes and hence enhances land ice accumulation| which is consistent with the rapid ice sheet growth during the first 10 kyr of the last glacial period that was observed by Johnson and Andrews. The authors conclude that a cold climate is not responsible for a weak ol collapsed THC in the North Atlantic Ocean: rather it is suggested that increased freshwater or massive iceberg discharge from land is responsible for such a state. 3124,2000,2,3,A simulation of biomes on the Tibetan Plateau and their responses to global climate change,The improved process based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model (BIOME3China) was run under the present climate to model the potential biomes on the Tibetan Plateau on a 10' grid. The simulated biome was basically in good agreement with a potential natural vegetation map based on a numerical comparison between two maps using the Delta V statistic (Delta V = 0.38). A coupled ocean- atmosphere general circulation model including sulfate aerosols was used to drive a double greenhouse gas scenario to the end of the next century. The simulated vegetation under changed climate with a CO:! concentration of 500 ppmv and a baseline biome map were also compared using the Delta V statistic (Delta V = 0.4). The climate change would cause a large reduction in the temperate deserts alpine steppe| desert| and ice/polar desert| a large increase in the cold-temperate conifer forest| temperate shrubland/meadow| and temperate steppe| and a general northwestward shift of ail vegetation zones. In addition to simulation of biome distribution| BIOME3China also predicted net primary production (NPP) of each grid cell. Comparisons between predicted annual NPP and 160 forest NPP measurements show an agreement between them with a linear regression| despite many problems| such as the quality of the field data. The pattern of predicted annual NPP in the scenario with enhanced CO2 concentration was the same as that under the present climate; however| the NPP of each biome would increase significantly. Present permafrost simulated using the air frost index was quite similar to the actual frozen ground distribution on the Tibetan Plateau. After the change in climate| the boundary between continuous and discontinuous permafrost would shift toward the north of the plateau by about 1-2 degrees in latitude. The continuous permafrost would mostly disappear| whereas the no-permafrost area would greatly increase. The movement of permafrost would take place with the shift of vegetation zones to the north. The disappearance of permafrost and the expansion of no-permafrost areas would accelerate the desertification of the Tibetan Plateau. 5163,2000,4,2,Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model,The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate(1). About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems(2)| but this absorption is sensitive to climate(3|4) as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations(5)| creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere| using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change(6). Here we present results from a fully coupled| three-dimensional carbon-climate model| indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We rnd that under a 'business as usual' scenario| the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050| but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100| the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt Cyr(-1) is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source| and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models(2)| resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K| as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback. 5344,2000,4,4,Acclimation of photosynthesis to temperature in eight cool and warm climate herbaceous C-3 species: Temperature dependence of parameters of a biochemical photosynthesis model,To determine how parameters of a Farquhar-type photosynthesis model varied with measurement temperature and with growth temperature| eight cool and warm climate herbaceous crop and weed species were grown at 15 and 25 degrees C and single leaf carbon dioxide and water vapor exchange rates were measured over the range of 15 - 35 degrees C. Photosynthetic parameters examined were the initial slope of the response of assimilation rate (A) to substomatal carbon dioxide concentration (C-i)| A at high C-i| and stomatal conductance. The first two measurements allow calculation of V-Cmax| the maximum rate of carboxylation of ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase and J(max)| the maximum rate of photosynthetic electron transport| of Farquhar-type photosynthesis models. In all species| stomatal conductance increased exponentially with temperature over the whole range of 15 - 35 degrees C| even when A decreased at high measurement temperature. There were larger increases in conductance over this temperature range in the warm climate species (4.3 x) than in the cool climate species (2.5 x). The initial slope of A vs. C-i exhibited an optimum temperature which ranged from 20 to 30 degrees C. There was a larger increase in the optimum temperature of the initial slope at the warmer growth temperature in the cool climate species than in the warm climate species. The optimum temperature for A at high C-i ranged from 25 to 30 degrees C among species| but changed little with growth temperature. The absolute values of both the initial slope of A vs. C-i and A at high C-i were increased about 10% by growth at the warmer temperature in the warm climate species| and decreased about 20% in the cool climate species. The ratio of J(max) - V-Cmax normalized to 20 degrees C varied by more than a factor of 2 across species and growth temperatures| but differences in the temperature response of photosynthesis were more related to variation in the temperature dependencies of J(max) and V-Cmax than to the ratio of their normalized values. 5343,2000,2,4,Acclimation to temperature of the response of photosynthesis to increased carbon dioxide concentration in Taraxacum officinale,The relative stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated carbon dioxide in C-3 species normally increases strongly with increasing temperature. This results from the kinetic characteristics of Rubisco| and has potentially important implications for responses of vegetation to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. It is often assumed that because Rubisco characteristics are conservative| all C-3 species have the same temperature dependence of the response of photosynthesis to elevated carbon dioxide. However| in this field study of Taraxacum officinale| there were no significant differences in the relative stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated carbon dioxide among days with temperatures ranging from 15 to 34 degreesC. Nevertheless| short-term measurements indicated a strong temperature dependence of the stimulation. This suggested that acclimation to temperature caused the lack of variation in the seasonal data. Experiments in controlled environments indicated that complete acclimation of the relative stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated carbon dioxide occurred for growth temperatures of 10 - 25 degreesC. The apparent specificity of Rubisco for carbon dioxide relative to oxygen at 15 degreesC| as assayed in vivo by measurements of the carbon dioxide concentration at which carboxylation equalled oxygenation| also varied with growth temperature. Changes in the apparent specificity of Rubisco accounted for the acclimation of the temperature dependence of the relative stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated carbon dioxide. It is premature to conclude that low temperatures will necessarily reduce the relative stimulation of photosynthesis caused by rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. 3117,2000,3,2,Adaptation to what and why?,Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable| despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed| the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate| but rather an ongoing "transient" process; Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions| and on relevant key variables| including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; The focus should shift from single predictions| or extreme ranges of uncertainty| to risk assessment; Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified| and expressed as functions of climatic variables; Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses| including those due to non-climatic changes; A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation| i.e.| to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive. 3111,2000,4,4,Age of soil organic matter and soil respiration: Radiocarbon constraints on belowground C dynamics,Radiocarbon data from soil organic matter and soil respiration provide powerful constraints for determining carbon dynamics and thereby the magnitude and timing of soil carbon response to global change. In this paper| data from three sites representing well-drained soils in boreal| temperate| and tropical forests are used to illustrate the methods for using radiocarbon to determine the turnover times of soil organic matter and to partition soil respiration. For these sites| the average age of bulk carbon in detrital and Oh/A-horizon organic carbon ranges from 200 to 1200 yr. In each case| this mass-weighted average includes components such as relatively undecomposed leaf| root| and moss litter with much shorter turnover times| and humified or mineral-associated organic matter with much longer turnover times. The average age of carbon in organic matter is greater than the average age predicted for CO| produced by its decomposition (30| 8| and 3 yr for boreal| temperate| and tropical soil)| or measured in total soil respiration (16| 3| and 1 yr). Most of the CO2 produced during decomposition is derived from relatively short-lived soil organic matter (SOM) components that do not represent a large component of the standing stock of soil organic matter. Estimates of soil carbon turnover obtained by dividing C stocks by heterotrophic respiration fluxes| or from radiocarbon measurements of bulk SOM| are biased to longer time scales of C cycling. Failure to account for the heterogeneity of soil organic matter will result in underestimation of the short-term response and overestimation of the long-term response of soil C storage to future changes in inputs or decomposition. Comparison of the C-14 in soil respiration with soil organic matter in temperate and boreal forest sites indicates a significant contribution from decomposition of organic matter fixed >2 yr but <30 yr ago. Tropical soil respiration is dominated by C fixed <1 yr ago. Monitoring the C-14 signature of CO2 emitted from soils give clues as to the causes of seasonal and interannual variability in soil respiration in these systems. 3135,2000,4,4,Airborne laser mapping of Assateague National Seashore beach,Results are presented from topographic surveys of the Assateague Island National Seashore using an airborne scanning laser altimeter and kinematic Global Positioning System (GPS) technology. The instrument used was the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM)| developed by the NASA Arctic Ice Mapping (AIM) group from the Goddard Space Flight Center's Wallops Flight Facility. In November| 1995| and again in May| 1996| these topographic surveys were flown as a functionality check prior to conducting missions to measure the elevation of extensive sections of the Greenland Ice Sheet as part of NASA's Global Climate Change program. Differences between overlapping portions of both surveys are compared for quality control. An independent assessment of the accuracy of the ATM survey is provided by comparison to surface surveys which were conducted using standard techniques. The goal of these projects is to make these measurements to an accuracy of +/- 10 cm. Differences between the fall 1995 and 1996 surveys provides an assessment of net changes in the beach morphology over an annual cycle. 5281,2000,2,4,Albumax and global warming on the web,An entomologist| Paul Reiter from Centers for Disease Control & Prevention| Puerto Rico| informed the ProMed list that ‘8 of 9 web pages dealing with this subject put the danger of malaria migrating to the United States and Europe as the number 1 danger caused by global warming'. Likewise| dengue and yellow fever are predicted to move to temperate climes. To put the subject in perspective| he had written an article entitled ‘From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age' (see http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol6no1/reiter.htm and published by the CDC| Vol. 6| Jan–Feb 2000). He wanted comments. [This fascinating article provides evidence to show that malaria was endemic in many temperate regions until the second half of the 20th century| causing major epidemics even as far north as the Arctic Circle| and it started to decline only in the 19th century when the present warming trend was already under way.] When Paul Roughan (University of Canterbury| New Zealand) asked the malaria list about the possible impact of global climate change (in particular| the spread of tropical zones) on the range of malaria| Ruth Sponsler| another entomologist| recommended Reiter's paper| emphasizing the impact that changes in living conditions have had on its transmission. Pia MacDonald (University of Michigan| USA) sent 31 references| covering papers from 1942 to 1998. Sander Koenraadt (Wageningen University| The Netherlands) described a project under way (see http://www.icis.unimaas.nl/camera) concerned with the effect of climate change on the vectors of malaria and designed to develop a model to predict changes in the incidence of the disease in the highlands| and in areas north and south of the current distribution area which might be affected.
3106,2000,2,4,Altering rainfall timing and quantity in a mesic grassland ecosystem: Design and performance of rainfall manipulation shelters,Global climate change is predicted to alter growing season rainfall patterns| potentially reducing total amounts of growing season precipitation and redistributing rainfall into fewer but larger individual events. Such changes may affect numerous soil| plant| and ecosystem properties in grasslands and ultimately impact their productivity and biological diversity. Rainout shelters are useful tools for experimental manipulations of rainfall patterns| and permanent fixed-location shelters were established in 1997 to conduct the Rainfall Manipulation Plot study in a mesic tallgrass prairie ecosystem in northeastern Kansas. Twelve 9 x 14-m fixed-location rainfall manipulation shelters were constructed to impose factorial combinations of 30% reduced rainfall quantity and 50% greater interrainfall dry periods on 6 x 6-m plots| to examine how altered rainfall regimes may affect plant species composition| nutrient cycling| and above- and belowground plant growth dynamics. The shelters provided complete control of growing season rainfall patterns| whereas effects on photosynthetic photon flux density| nighttime net radiation| and soil temperature generally were comparable to other similar shelter designs. Soil and plant responses to the first growing season of rainfall manipulations (1998) suggested that the interval between rainfall events may be a primary driver in grassland ecosystem responses to altered rainfall patterns. Aboveground net primary productivity| soil CO2 flux| and flowering duration were reduced by the increased interrainfall intervals and were mostly unaffected by reduced rainfall quantity. The timing of rainfall events and resulting temporal patterns of soil moisture relative to critical times for microbial activity| biomass accumulation| plant life histories| and other ecological properties may regulate longer-term responses to altered rainfall patterns. 3137,2000,2,4,Alternative forest management strategies under climatic change - Prospects for gap model applications in risk analyses,The projected global climate change will influence growth and productivity of natural and managed forests. Since the characteristics of the future regional climate are still uncertain and the response of our forests to changes in the atmospheric and climatic conditions may be both positive or negative| decision making in managed forests should consider the new risks and uncertainties arising from climatic change| especially if the rotation periods are long. An extended version of the forest gap model FORSKA was applied to simulate the forest development at 488 forest inventory plots in the federal state of Brandenburg| Germany| under two climate and three management scenarios. The transient growth dynamics from 1990 to 2100 were investigated at four sites in different parts of the state| representing the variability of environmental and forest conditions within Brandenburg. The alternative management strategies led to distinct differences in forest composition after 110 years of simulation. The projected climate change affected both forest productivity and species composition. The impacts of alternative management scenarios are discussed. It is concluded that the extended forest gap model can be a valuable tool to support decision making in forest management under global change. 5362,2000,5,2,Amazonian and neotropical plant communities on glacial time-scales: The failure of the aridity and refuge hypotheses,Plants respond to Pleistocene climatic change as species| not as associations or biomes. This has been demonstrated unequivocally by paleobotanical data for temperate latitudes. In the far richer vegetations of the tropics species populations also fluctuated independently in response to climatic forcing| from their longlasting glacial states to the patterns of brief interglacials like the present and back again. We use pollen data to reconstruct the vegetation of the Amazon basin in oxygen isotope stages 3 and 2 of the last glaciation in order to measure how the plant populations of the Amazon responded to the global warming at the onset of the Holocene. We find that plant communities of the neotropics vent copious pollen to lake sediments and that this pollen yields powerful signals for community composition. Three continuous sedimentary records reaching through oxygen isotope stage 2 are available from the Amazon lowlands| those from Carajas| Lake Pata and marine deposits off the mouth of the Amazon River. All three records yield pollen histories of remarkable constancy and stability. By comparing them with deposits of equal antiquity from the cerrado (savanna) of central Brazil| we show that most of the Amazon lowlands remained under forest throughout a glacial cycle. This forest was never fragmented by open vegetation as postulated by the refugia hypothesis. Instead the intact forest of glacial times included significant populations of plants that are now montane| suggesting that the global warming of the early Holocene resulted in the expulsion of heat intolerant plants from the lowland forest. Pollen data from the Amazonian flank of the Andes and from Pacific Panama provide evidence that populations of these heat intolerant plants survive the heat of interglacials in part by maintaining large populations at cooler montane altitudes. Our conclusion that the Amazon lowlands were forested in glacial times specifically refutes the hypothesis of Amazonian glacial aridity. Accordingly we examine the geomorphological evidence for glacial aridity and find it wanting. Of the three paleodune systems reported for tropical South America| that of NE Brazil was active in the Holocene as well as the Pleistocene. Parts of NE Brazil were actually moister than now in late-glacial times. Paleodunes in the Pantanal have never been seen on the ground| and those in the Orinoco Llanos are undated and may bie of any age since the Tertiary. Arkosic sands in the Amazon fan deposits came from the Andean foothills or from down cutting by rivers and cannot be evidence of a former arid land surface. White sands of Amazonia formed as podzols| not by aeolian activity. Such Amazonian stone lines as have received critical scrutiny are concretionary pisolites in stratigraphic formations that are more than ten million years old. Although the Amazon was never arid| modeling cooler glacial tropics gives plausibility to a somewhat drier Amazon in glacial times| a concept given substance by pollen data for the movement of ecotones in Rondonia| by stream histories in the Bolivian Andes| and by evidence for lowered lake levels at Carajas and Lake Pata. But this reduced precipitation was never enough to fragment the forest in the Amazon lowlands themselves. Pleistocene mammals of the Napo river valley in Ecuador were able to live along the river system in a forested landscape. Our data suggest that the Amazon forests have been stable since the start of the Pleistocene| a fact that has contributed to the storage of vast diversity. The coming anthropogenic global warming and CO2 enrichment will add to the global warming already endured by Amazon biota in the Holocene. We think it possible that the expulsion from the lowland forests of heat intolerant species is already complete and that the forest property of maintaining its own microhabitat will allow the high species richness to survive more global warming| provided large enough tracts of forest are preserved. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 3072,2000,4,4,AMS at ANTARES - The first 10 years,The status and capabilities of the ANTARES AMS facility after 10 years are reviewed. The common AMS radioisotopes| Be-10| C-14| Al-26| Cl-26 and I-129| routinely analysed. A capability for the detection of U-236 and other actinide isotopes has been developed. The measurement program includes support to Quaternary science projects at Australian universities and to ANSTO projects in global climate change and nuclear safeguards. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5322,2000,3,2,An evaluation of historical methane emissions from the Soviet gas industry,An inventory of natural gas losses from the former Soviet Union's gas industry has been constructed from published Russian-language sources. The results imply that in the late 1980s/early 1990s annual losses from Russia were in the range 35-59 x 10(9) cubic meters (24-40 Tg of CH4): estimates based on what are thought to be the more reliable sources place annual losses in the range 37-52 x 10(9) cubic meters (25-35 Tg of CH4). Of this amount| one half to two thirds of the emissions may have been from the extremely long and ageing gas pipeline system. Extrapolation of the estimates for Russian losses to the whole territory of the former Soviet Union suggests a probable total annual emission level from the whole ex-Soviet gas industry in the range 47-67 x 10(9) cubic meters of natural gas or 31-45 Tg of CH4 in these years. The envelope of minimum and maximum estimates for emissions from the former Soviet Union ranges from 29 to 50 Tg of methane. The limited availability of systematic and accurate published information on the emissions introduces significant uncertainty into the estimate. In an attempt to constrain emissions better| estimates of losses from specific causes were made using two or more independent approaches| where possible. A reasonable agreement between estimates was achieved in those cases. Our results imply that substantial reductions in emissions could be achieved by investment to reduce losses. Because of the high global warming potential and short lifetime of methane compared to carbon dioxide| reducing the large losses from the FSU may be among the most cost-effective short-term approaches available to reduce global anthropogenic greenhouse warming. 5348,2000,3,3,An evaluation of multicriteria decision-making methods in integrated assessment of climate policy,Those who conduct integrated assessments (IAs) are increasingly aware of the need to explicitly consider uncertainty and a range of criteria when evaluating alternative policies for preventing global warming. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods provide a useful set of tools for understanding tradeoffs and gaining insight into policy alternatives. A difficulty facing potential MCDM users is the multitude of different techniques| each with distinct advantages and disadvantages. Methods differ widely in terms of their ease of use and appropriateness to the issue under consideration. Most importantly| different methods can yield strikingly different rankings of alternatives. A workshop was held to expose climate change experts| IA researchers| and policy makers to a range of MCDM methods and to evaluate and compare their potential usefulness to IA. Participants applied several methods in the context of a hypothetical greenhouse gas policy decision and evaluated each method. Analysis of method results and participant feedback through questionnaires and discussion provide the basis for conclusions regarding the use of MCDM methods for climate change policy and IA analysis. 5379,2000,4,4,An in situ experiment of methane sequestration as gas hydrate| authigenic carbonate| and loss to the water column and/or atmosphere,A one year in situ experiment to quantify the flux of carbon| primarily as methane| from an overpressured thrust fault at the Cascadia convergent margin (ODP Site 892B) is described| Most of the expelled carbon Is sequestered in two solid phases| methane hydrate and authigenic carbonates and an unknown portion is lost in the water column and/or atmosphere| C-14 ages of clam shells from the vicinity of the site suggest active methane venting for at least 21-24 kyrs. The water column chemistry provides information on the potential effects of global warming on rapid massive gas hydrate dissociation and on the effects of microbial oxidation of the released methane on the local oceanic oxygen and CO2 contents. The local and global implications of these processes for the oceanic carbon cycle are being assessed. 5365,2000,5,4,Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees,Over vast areas of the world's landmasses| where climate beats out a strong seasonal rhythm| tree growth keeps unerring time. In their rings| trees record many climate melodies| played in different places and different eras. Recent years have seen a consolidation and expansion of tree-ring sample collections across the traditional research areas of North America and Europe| and the start of major developments in many new areas of Eurasia| South America and Australasia. From such collections are produced networks of precisely dated chronologies; records of various aspects of tree growth| registered continuously| year by year across many centuries. Their sensitivities to different climate parameters are now translated into ever more detailed histories of temperature and moisture variability across expanding dimensions of time and space. With their extensive coverage| high temporal resolution and rigid dating control| dendroclimatic reconstructions contribute significantly to our knowledge of late Holocene climates| most importantly on timescales ranging from 1 to 100 years. In special areas of the world| where trees live for thousands of years or where subfossil remnants of long dead specimens are preserved| work building chronologies covering many millennia continues apace. Very recently| trees have provided important new information about major modes of general circulation dynamics linked to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation| and about the effect of large volcanic eruptions. As for assessing the significance of 20th century global warming| the evidence from dendroclimatology in general| supports the notion that the last 100 years have been unusually warm| at least within a context of the last two millennia. However| this evidence should not be considered equivocal. The activities of humans may well be impacting on the 'natural' growth of trees in different ways| making the task of isolating a clear climate message subtly difficult. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5279,2000,3,4,Appliance rigid foams blown with cyclopentane and cyclopentane/isopentane blends,Since CFC 11 was eliminated from use in rigid foams in the mid 1990s| the blowing agent of choice in North America has primarily been HCFC 141b. In the USA| we are now faced with the phase-out of HCFC 141b by the year 2003. The blowing agent that will replace HCFC 141b must be non-ozone depleting and should also have low thermal conductivity and a low global warming potential. Hydrocarbons are some of the few blowing agents that meet these criteria and are approved by the United States Environmental Protection Agency to replace HCFC 141b in rigid polyurethane foams for appliance insulation [1]. Of the hydrocarbons being considered| cyclopentane is preferred| either by itself or in blends with other hydrocarbons. This is because of cyclopentane's favorable combination of low thermal conductivity| good solubility in polyols and reasonable boiling point| compared to other hydrocarbons. Not only is the thermal conductivity of cyclopentane lower than that of most other hydrocarbons| it is also lower than that of HFC 134a| another blowing agent which is approved for use after 2002. This paper will examine the effect of two important factors| both theoretically and experimentally| on cyclopentane blown foams. These factors are (1) the amount of blowing obtained from carbon dioxide that is formed from the reaction between water and isocyanate| and (2) the ratio of cyclopentane to isopentane| which is used as the hydrocarbon blowing agent. 5222,2000,3,3,Assessing fuel substitution from coal to natural gas for power plants in compliance with FCCC provisions,A number of environmental strategies in compliance with the provisions of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) are currently being analyzed by utilities. Natural gas is often the most important one| since its use emits carbon dioxide (CO2) far less than other fossil fuels. The use of natural gas is therefore under serious consideration as a strategy to reduce the impact on global warming from coal thermal plants under current technological levels. In this article| a cost minimization model is formulated to investigate the feasibility for this strategy from a long-term economic viewpoint. The model developed is comprised of various strategies such as installing scrubbers| purchasing emission credits| or switching fuels for fossil plants| especially coal-fired thermals| which are currently being implemented or considered by utilities. The implemented results show that substitution of natural gas is less economical than other strategies. 5273,2000,4,3,Atmospheric centers of action and tendencies of their change,Tendencies of change in the characteristics of atmospheric centers of action (ACAs) in the Northern Hemisphere are analyzed using empirical data over the period 1891-1995. The results are compared to model estimates. The hydrostatic equation is used to obtain the simplest model estimates. A more detailed model is based on the consideration of quasi-stationary Rossby waves on a sphere at the equivalent-barotropic level. For the mode with a meridional wave number of 5 and with a zonal wave number of 2| which makes a major contribution to the formation of Northern Hemisphere ACAs| the relative dynamics of the pressure and temperature fields at the equivalent-barotropic level is analyzed analytically. The interrelation between the corresponding surface fields is estimated with allowance for a relationship between the tropospheric lapse rate and the surface air temperature. The resulting model expressions can be used for a qualitative analysis of the relative role of various climatic variables in the formation of the sensitivity of ACA characteristics to global changes| both anthropogenic| caused by changes in the atmospheric contents of greenhouse gases and aerosol| and natural| associated| for example| with phenomena like El Nino. Model estimates are used to explain a possible strengthening of ACA intensity under global warming of the climate| which is detected| in particular| for the wintertime Siberian High by analyzing empirical data. The corresponding tendencies of change in the ACA location (latitude and longitude) are estimated. 3128,2000,2,4,Atmospheric CO2 and the composition and function of soil microbial communities,Elevated atmospheric CO2 has the potential to increase the production and alter the chemistry of organic substrates entering soil from plant production| the magnitude of which is constrained by soil-N availability. Because microbial growth in soil is limited by substrate inputs from plant production| we reasoned that changes in the amount and chemistry of these organic substrates could affect the composition of soil microbial communities and the cycling of N in soil. We studied microbial community composition and soil-N transformations beneath Populus tremuloides Michx. growing under experimental atmospheric CO2 (35.7 and 70.7 Pa) and soil-N-availability (low N = 61 ng N.g(-1).d(-1) and high N = 319 ng N.g(-1).d(-1)) treatments. Atmospheric CO2 concentration was modified in large| open-top chambers| and we altered soil-N availability in open-bottom root boxes by mixing different proportions of A and C horizon material. We used phospholipid fatty-acid analysis to gain insight into microbial community composition and coupled this analysis to measurements of soil-N transformations using N-15-pool dilution techniques. The information presented here is part of an integrated experiment designed to elucidate the physiological mechanisms controlling the flow of C and N in the plant-soil system. Our objectives were (1) to determine whether changes in plant growth and tissue chemistry alter microbial community composition and soil-N cycling in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 and soil-N availability and (2) to integrate the results of our experiment into a synthesis of elevated atmospheric CO2 and the cycling of C and N in terrestrial ecosystems. After 2.5 growing seasons| microbial biomass| gross N mineralization| microbial immobilization| and nitrification (gross and net) were equivalent at ambient and elevated CO2| suggesting that increases in fine-root production and declines in fine-root N concentration were insufficient to alter the influence of native soil organic matter on microbial physiology; this was the case in both low- and high-N soil. Similarly| elevated CO2 did not alter the proportion of bacterial| actinomycetal| or fungal phospholipid fatty acids in low-N or high-N soil| indicating that changes in substrate input from greater plant growth under elevated CO2 did not alter microbial community composition. Our results differ from a substantial number of studies reporting increases and decreases in soil-N cycling under elevated CO2. From our analysis| it appears that soil-N cycling responds to elevated atmospheric CO2 in experimental situations where plant roots have fully colonized the soil and root-associated C inputs are sufficient to modify the influence of native soil organic matter on microbial physiology. In young developing ecosystems where plant roots have not fully exploited the soil| microbial metabolism appears to be regulated by relatively large pools of soil organic matter| rather than by the additional input of organic substrates under elevated CO2. 3127,2000,2,4,Atmospheric CO2| soil-N availability| and allocation of biomass and nitrogen by Populus tremuloides,Our ability to predict whether elevated atmospheric CO2 will alter the cycling of C and N in terrestrial ecosystems requires understanding a complex set of feedback mechanisms initiated by changes in C and N acquisition by plants and the degree to which changes in resource acquisition (C and N) alter plant growth and allocation. To gain further insight into these dynamics| we grew six genotypes of Populus tremuloides Michx. that differ in autumnal senescence (early vs| late) under experimental atmospheric CO2 (35.7 and 70.7 Pa) and soil-N availability (low and high) treatments. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations were manipulated with open-top chambers| and soil-N availability was modified in open-bottom root boxes by mixing different proportions of native A and C horizon soil. Net N mineralization rates averaged 61 ng N.g(-1).d(-1) in low-N soil and 319 ng N.g(-1).d(-1) in high-N soil. After 2.5 growing seasons| we harvested above- and belowground plant components in each chamber and determined total biomass| N concentration| N content| and the relative allocation of biomass and N to leaves| stems| and roots. Elevated CO2 increased total plant biomass 16% in low-N soil and 38% in high-N soil| indicating that the growth response of P. tremuloides to elevated CO2 was constrained by soil-N availability. Greater growth under elevated CO2 did not substantially alter the allocation of biomass to above- or belowground plant components. At both levels of soil-N availability| elevated CO2 decreased the N concentration of all plant tissues. Despite declines in tissue N concentration| elevated CO2 significantly increased whole-plant N content in high-N soil (ambient = 137 g N/chamber; elevated = 155 g N/chamber)| but it did not influence whole-plant N content in low-N soil (36 g N/chamber). Our results indicate that plants in high-N soil obtained greater amounts of soil N under elevated CO2 by producing a proportionately larger fine-root system that more thoroughly exploited the soil. The significant positive relationship between fine-root biomass and total-plant N content we observed in high-N soil further supports this contention. In low-N soil| elevated CO did not increase fine-root biomass or production| and plants under ambient and elevated CO2 obtained equivalent amounts of N from soil. In high-N soil| it appears that greater acquisition of soil N under elevated CO2 fed forward within the plant to increase rates of C acquisition| which further enhanced plant growth response to elevated CO2. 5228,2000,4,4,Avian data bases and their use in environmental assessment,The databases of the British Trust for Ornithology that can be used in environmental assessment are described. The most important ongoing surveys from this viewpoint are as follows: the Ringing Scheme which gives information on annual mortality| the Nest Record Card Scheme which provides data on reproductive success| the Common Birds Census which gives an index of population| the Constant Effort Sites which monitors productivity and survival and the Breeding Bird Survey which complements and is replacing the Common Birds Census. The use of these databases in unravelling the effects of intensive agriculture on avian populations is discussed. The use of these databases to monitor global warming is also considered. 5223,2000,2,4,Bad air for coral reefs,Specialists have seriously worried about coral reefs for the last 15 years. These biological constructions have survived all sorts of challenges| but can they survive the combined impact of local disturbances and global warming? Now| even another mechanism is threatening the reefs: the increase in atmospheric CO2. 3114,2000,3,4,Biodegradability of new engineered fuels compared to conventional petroleum fuels and alternative fuels in current use,Concern with environmental issues such as global climate change has stimulated research into the development of more environmentally friendly technologies and energy sources. One critical area of our economy is liquid transportation fuels. This article presents the results of the biodegradability potential of newly developed engineered fuels and compares the results to the biodegradability of conventional fuels and alternative fuels in current use. Biodegradability potential was determined under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions. Fuels that have a high degree of components derived from renewable sources proved to have a higher degradability potential than those composed of petroleum components.
3144,2000,3,4,Bioenergy in the United States: progress and possibilities,Concerns about global climate change and air quality have increased interest in biomass and other energy sources that are potentially CO(z)-neutral and less polluting. Large-scale bioenergy development could indeed bring significant ecological benefits - or equally significant damage - depending on the specific paths taken. In particular| the land requirements for biomass production are potentially immense. Various entities in the United States have performed research; prepared cost-supply assessments| environmental impact assessments| life cycle analyses and externality impact assessments; and engaged in demonstration and development regarding biomass crops and other potential biomass energy feedstocks. These efforts have focused on various biomass wastes| forest management issues| and biomass crops| including both perennial herbaceous crops and fast-growing woody crops. Simultaneously| several regional and national groups of bioenergy stakeholders have issued consensus recommendations and guidelines for sustainable bioenergy development. It is a consistent conclusion from these efforts that displacing annual agricultural crops with native perennial biomass crops could - in addition to reducing fossil fuel use and ameliorating associated ecological problems also help restore natural ecosystem functions in worked landscapes| and thereby preserve natural biodiversity. Conversely| if forests are managed and harvested more intensively - and/or if biomass crops displace more natural land cover such as forests and wetlands - it is likely that ecosystem functions would be impaired and biodiversity lost. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 3085,2000,4,3,Bumping against a gas ceiling,The adoption of physical thresholds as a ceiling for permitted climate change sidesteps contentious issues such as: policy cost| impact valuation| discounting and equity. In this paper I offer some reflections on the concept of tolerable climate change. I also use an integrated climate assessment model (ICAM-3) to demonstrate how uncertainties in our understanding of socioeconomic and earth systems reduce the probability of success in keeping climate change within a pre-defined tolerable range. Finally| I explore the implications of socioeconomic thresholds for welfare loss in pursuit of a climate policy (e.g.| tax rebellions). Crossing such regional socioeconomic thresholds will lead to local failures to pursue climate change mitigation policies - increasing the probability of straying beyond the tolerable window of global climate change. Given various uncertainties and the dynamics of the socioeconomic and the earth systems| the odds of success in staying within a climate change window of Delta T less than or equal to 2 degrees C| and Delta T/yr less than or equal to 0.015 degrees C are estimated to be no higher than 25% over the next century. A risk-risk tradeoff approach appears to hold promise| but while adoption of a larger window of tolerance increases the probability of success| it also opens the window specification criteria to contention. 5325,2000,2,4,Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change?,The atmosphere displays modes of variability whose structures exhibit a strong longitudinally symmetric (annular) component that extends from the surface to the stratosphere in middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. In the past 30 years| these modes have exhibited trends that seem larger than their natural background variability| and may be related to human influences on stratospheric ozone and/or atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The pattern of climate trends during the past few decades is marked by rapid cooling and ozone depletion in the polar lower stratosphere of both hemispheres| coupled with an increasing strength of the wintertime westerly polar vortex and a poleward shift of the westerly wind belt at the earth's surface. Annular modes of variability are fundamentally a result of internal dynamical feedbacks within the climate system| and as such can show a large response to rather modest external forcing. The dynamics and thermodynamics of these modes are such that strong synergistic interactions between stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse warming are possible. These interactions may be responsible for the pronounced changes in tropospheric and stratospheric climate observed during the past few decades. If these trends continue| they could have important implications for the climate of the 21st century. 5239,2000,4,2,Carbon dioxide gas sensing with the combination of divalent magnesium ion and oxide ion conducting solid electrolytes,The main gas species causing the global warming of the earth is carbon dioxide (CO2) and the human race must seek for the solution to suppress the continuous increase crisis of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Here| two types of solid electrolytes were rigidly selected from their thermodynamic stability and reasonably high ionic conducting properties point of view to create the CO2 practical sensing performance. 3119,2000,4,4,Carbon metabolism of the terrestrial biosphere: A multitechnique approach for improved understanding,Understanding terrestrial carbon metabolism is critical because terrestrial ecosystems play a major role in the global carbon cycle. Furthermore| humans have severely disrupted the carbon cycle in ways that will alter the climate system and directly affect terrestrial metabolism. Changes in terrestrial metabolism may well be as important an indicator of global change as the changing temperature signal. Improving our understanding of the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales will require the integration of multiple| complementary and independent methods that are used by different research communities. Tools such as air sampling networks| inverse numerical methods| and satellite data (top-down approaches) allow us to study the strength and location of the global- and continental-scale carbon sources and sinks. Bottom-up studies provide estimates of carbon fluxes at finer spatial scales and examine the mechanisms that control fluxes at the ecosystem| landscape| and regional scales. Bottom-up approaches include comparative and process studies (for example| ecosystem manipulative experiments) that provide the necessary mechanistic information to develop and validate terrestrial biospheric models. An iteration and reiteration of top-down and bottom-up approaches will be necessary to help constrain measurements at various scales. We propose a major international effort to coordinate and lead research programs of global scope of the carbon cycle. 3077,2000,3,3,Carbon sinks in the Kyoto Protocol - Potential relevance for US forests,The international agreement known as the Kyoto Protocol seeks to reduce the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases to mitigate the threat of global climate change. It contains provisions for including carbon stock changes from forests and land-use change to meet nations' greenhouse gas commitments| but the terms under which forest-related carbon stock changes are included are open to interpretation. Critical questions include how much of the carbon currently being sequestered by US forests might qualify| and what forest management activities will be included. 5238,2000,5,1,Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years,Recent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and climate forcing over the past 1000 years allow the warming of the 20th century to be placed within a historical context and various mechanisms of climate change to be tested. Comparisons of observations with simulations from an energy balance climate model indicate that as much as 41 to 64% of preanthropogenic (pre-1850) decadal-scale temperature variations was due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Removal of the forced response from reconstructed temperature time series yields residuals that show similar variability to those of control runs of coupled models| thereby lending support to the models' value as estimates of low-frequency variability in the climate system. Removal of all forcing except greenhouse gases from the similar to 1000-year time series results in a residual with a very large late-20th-century warming that closely agrees with the response predicted from greenhouse gas forcing. The combination of a unique level of temperature increase in the late 20th century and improved constraints on the role of natural variability provides further evidence that the greenhouse effect has already established itself above the level of natural variability in the climate system. A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial. 3107,2000,2,4,Cautionary tales: Adaptation and the global poor,Many who study global change| particularly from industrialized countries| are optimistic about the capacity of agriculture to successfully adapt to climate change. This optimism is based on historic trends in yield increases| on the spread of cropping systems far beyond their traditional agroecological boundaries| and the inherent flexibility of systems of international trade. Analysis of the success (or in rare cases| failure) of adaptation is by analogy-either to analogous socioeconomic or technological change or to short term environmental change. Such studies have been limited to industrialized countries. This paper uses five analogs from developing countries to examine potential adaptation to global climate change by poor people. Two are studies of comparative developing country responses to drought| flood| and tropical cyclone and to the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 80s that illustrate adaptations to climate and weather events:. Two address food production and rapid population growth in South Asia and Africa. Three types of adaptive social costs are considered: the direct costs of adaptation| the costs of adapting to the adaptations| and the costs of failing to adapt. A final analog reviews 30 village-level studies for the role that these social costs of adaptation play in perpetuating poverty and environmental degradation. 3066,2000,4,4,Challenges of measuring forest floor organic matter dynamics: Repeated measures from a chronosequence,Accurate estimates of the retention of carbon in forest soils following forest disturbances are essential to predictions of global carbon cycling. The belief that 50% of soil carbon is lost in the first 20 years after clearcutting is largely based on a chronosequence study of forest floors in New Hampshire northern hardwoods (Covington| 1981). We resampled forest floors in 13 stands in a similar chronosequence after an interval of 15 years. The three youngest stands| which were predicted to lose organic matter over this time| did not exhibit the 40-50% losses predicted by the original chronosequence. The oldest stands had about twice as much organic mass in the forest floor as those cut recently| but this pattern could be explained equally well by historical changes in the nature of forest harvest as by the age of the stands. For example| mechanized logging probably causes more mechanical disturbance to the forest floor than horse logging| burying more organic matter into the mineral soil. Markets for forest products and the intensity of harvest removals have also changed over time| possibly contributing to lower organic matter in the forest floor in young stands. In any chronosequence study| effects of change in the nature of the treatment over time can easily be misinterpreted as change with time since treatment; Repeated sampling of the chronosequence provides controls for some of these effects. Ln the case of forest floor organic matter| however| high spatial variation makes it difficult to distinguish whether the observed variation is more likely due to changes in treatment over time or to differences in time since treatment. Because of the large amounts of carbon involved| small changes in rates of soil organic matter storage may be quite important in global climate change| but they will remain difficult to detect| even with very intensive sampling. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5320,2000,3,4,Changes in carbon storage in fallow forests in the tropical lowlands of Borneo,The range of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from tropical land-use change has long been debated. A major source of uncertainty is attributable to the fluxes of CO2 due to changes in tropical land use. For example| estimate is different depending on whether the biomass or carbon content of tropical forests is totally lost by burning or recovered by regrowth. To estimate CO2 absorption by fallow forests after shifting cultivation| we investigated the floristic composition and measured the biomass of fallow forests in East Kalimantan| Indonesia. Above-ground biomass of fallow forests were 8-10 t/ha at one-year-old stands and 45-56 t/ha at 10-12-year-old stands| regardless of the floristic composition. It seems reasonable to suppose that 7.4% of carbon released to the atmosphere by tropical rain forest destruction is reabsorbed and stored by fallow forests in Indonesia. If this is a universal trend in other tropical forests| a significant amount of CO2 is reabsorbed in fallow forests. We consider that fallow forests like the one studied here are substantial carbon sinks and help to offset the effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5243,2000,5,4,Changes in dryness/wetness in China during the last 529 years,Historical written records of weather conditions that affect agriculture and living conditions in China can serve as a proxy for instrumental observations of the relative wetness and dryness| or precipitation amounts| for periods of time dating back to at least AD 1470. The dryness/wetness index (DW) data at 100 selected sites and at a subset of 25 sites with entirely continuous data indicate that during the growing season the number of sites with dryness increased rapidly in the 20th century| in contrast to a gradual increase and levelling off of wetness since the 18th century. Dry conditions existed mostly in northeastern China in the 16th and 17th centuries. In the 20th century| dryness prevailed in most areas in China| and the chance of occurrence at each site increased. Wet conditions have expanded from east coastal areas to inland since the 19th century. As a result of increased dryness and wetness| the number of sites experiencing normal precipitation conditions has dropped dramatically. The number of sites with extreme dryness/wetness has also increased during the 20th century| and the spatial distribution of the sites with a large chance of extreme dryness/wetness has also changed. The frequent occurrences in dryness/wetness as well as in extremes in the 20th century seem indicative of an abnormality in climate on a large scale. Spectral analyses of the DW data has revealed that cycles in dryness/wetness and their extremes have existed with periods on relatively short time scales as well as on the long time scales. The possible existence of a century-scale cycle suggests that caution should be used in relating variations in rainfall conditions to global warming. Copyright (C) 2000 Royal Meteorological Society. 3095,2000,4,4,Characterizing regional economic impacts and responses to climate change,While much progress has been made in recent years in modeling the impacts of greenhouse gases on global climate and impacts of global climate change on regional climates| much less progress has been made in modeling economic impacts and responses to climate change| particularly at a regional level. This lack of progress is due| in large part| to the fact that there is no generally accepted framework for characterizing the regional economic impacts of| and responses to| climate change. The objective of this paper is to make a start at such a framework. We divide economic impacts at a regional level into four broad categories: direct impacts on production of market goods and services; direct impacts on production of nonmarket goods and services; indirect impacts on other economic sectors within the region; and indirect impacts operating through other regions and countries. We go on to consider two modeling frameworks for responses to climate change: static| in which regional capital stocks| technologies| and public and private institutions are exogenous; and dynamic| in which these variables are endogenous. Dynamic responses in capital stocks| technologies| and institutions are likely to be the most important adaptations to climate change and its effects on ecosystems| but also the least well understood at the present time. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5295,2000,3,3,Chlorofluorocarbons substitution in rigid polyurethane foams,The substitution of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) has represented a major challenge not only for the fluid producers but also for the final users who relied on these molecules. Rigid polyurethane foams have been profoundly affected by this change. This paper will especially address the consequence of the CFC-11 substitution on the formulation itself of rigid polyurethane foams. In a second part| the overall impact on the environment of current and future substitutes will be reviewed : contributions to the global warming and to the creation of tropospheric ozone. 3116,2000,2,4,Climate change and climate variability: Adaptations to reduce adverse health impacts,Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed Life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of| or in response to| its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological| behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual| community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term| fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards. 5142,2000,2,4,Climate change and impacts of boreal forest insects,The circum-polar boreal forest has played an important role in the wealth of northern nations since the 15th century. Its natural resources spurred strategic geopolitical developments beginning in the 16th century but intense development of the boreal forest is largely limited to the 20th century. Insects cause considerable loss of wood that has an adverse effect on the balance of carbon sequestered by forests. Current understanding of processes that lead to stand-replacing outbreaks in three insect species is reviewed in this paper. Many of these processes depend on climate either directly| such as reduced survival with extreme weather events| or indirectly| mainly through effects on the host trees. In the boreal zone of Canada| pest-caused timber losses may be as much as 1.3-2.0 times the mean annual depletions due to fires. Pests are thus major| but consistently overlooked forest ecosystem components that have manifold consequences to the structure and functions of future forests. Global change will have demonstrable changes in the frequency and intensity of pest outbreaks| particularly at the margins of host ranges. The consequent shunting of carbon back to the atmosphere rather than to sequestration in forests as biomass is thought to have positive feedback to global warming. Whereas significant progress has been made in developing carbon budget models for the boreal forests of Canada| enormous problems remain in incorporating pest effects in these models. These problems have their origins in the nature of interactions among pests with forest productivity| and problems with scaling. The common problems of verification and validation of model results are particularly troublesome in projecting future forest productivity. The interaction of insects with fires must be accounted for if realistic carbon sequestration forecasts in a warming climate are to be made| These problems make assessments of mitigation and adaptation of pest management alternatives difficult to evaluate at present. Nevertheless| the impacts of stand-replacing insect population outbreaks is important in formulating future resource management policy. Crown Copyright (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3104,2000,2,4,Climate change and resource management in the Columbia River basin,Scenarios of global climate change were examined to see what impacts they might have on transboundary water management in the Columbia River basin. Scenario changes in natural streamflow were estimated using a basin hydrology model. These scenarios tended to show earlier seasonal peaks| with possible reductions in total annual flow and lower minimum flows. Impacts and adaptation responses to the natural streamflow scenarios were determined through two exercises: (a) estimations of system reliability using a reservoir model with performance measures and (b) interviews with water managers and other stakeholders in the Canadian portion of the basin. Results from the two exercises were similar| suggesting a tendency towards reduced reliability to meet objectives for power production| fisheries| and agriculture. Reliability to meet flood control objectives would be relatively unchanged in some scenarios but reduced in others. This exercise suggests that despite the high level of development and management in the Columbia| vulnerabilities would still exist| and impacts could still occur in scenarios of natural streamflow changes caused by global climate change. Many of these would be indirect| reflecting the complex relationship between the region and its climate. 3109,2000,2,4,Climate change impacts on the hydrology and productivity of a pine plantation,There are increasing concerns in the forestry community about global climate change and variability associated with elevated atmospheric CO2 Changes in precipitation and increases in air temperature could impose additional stress on forests during the next century. For a study site in Carteret County| North Carolina| the General Circulation Model| HADCM2| predicts that by the year 2099| maximum air temperature will increase 1.6 to 1.9 degrees C| minimum temperature will increase 2.5 to 2.8 degrees C| and precipitation will increase 0 to 10 percent compared to the mid-1990s. These changes vary from season to season. We utilized a forest ecosystem process model| PnET-II| for studying the potential effects of climate change on drainage outflow| evapotranspiration| leaf area index (LAI) and forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP). This model was first validated with long term drainage and LAI data collected at a 25-ha mature loblolly pine (Pinus taeda. L.) experimental watershed located in the North Carolina lower coastal plain. The site is flat with poorly drained soils and high groundwater table. Therefore| a high field capacity of 20 cm was used in the simulation to account for the topographic effects. This modeling study suggested that future climate change would cause a significant increase of drainage (6 percent) and forest productivity (2.5 percent). Future studies should consider the biological feedback (i.e.| stomata conductance and water use efficiency) to air temperature change. 5187,2000,2,3,Climate change impacts on urban flooding,This paper estimates changes in the potential damage of flood events caused by increases of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. It is presented in two parts: 1. the modelling of flood frequency and magnitude under global warming and associated rainfall intensities and 2. the use of greenhouse flood data to assess changes in the vulnerability of flood prone urban areas| expressing these in terms of direct losses. Three case studies were selected: the Hawkesbury-Nepean corridor| the Queanbeyan and Upper Parramatta Rivers. All three catchments are located in southeastern Australia| near Sydney and Canberra. These were chosen because each had detailed building data bases available and the localities are situated on rivers that vary in catchment size and characteristics. All fall within a region that will experience similar climate change under the available greenhouse scenarios. The GCMs' slab model scenarios of climate change in 2030 and 2070 will cause only minor changes to urban flood damage but the double CO2 scenarios estimated using the Stochastic Weather Generator technique will lead to significant increases in building damage. For all the case studies| the hydrological modelling indicates that there will be increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events under the double CO2 conditions although these vary from place to place. However| the overall pattern of change is that for the Upper Parramatta River the 1 in 100-year flood under current conditions becomes the 1 in 44-year event| the 1 in 35-year flood for the Hawkesbury-Nepean and the 1 in 10 for Queanbeyan and Canberra. This indicates the importance of using rainfall-runoff modelling in order to estimate changes in flood frequencies in catchments with different physical characteristics. 5270,2000,2,4,Climate change in the semiarid prairie of southwestern Saskatchewan: Temperature| precipitation| wind| and incoming solar energy,Long-term weather data were analyzed to study annual as well as seasonal climate change within an approximately 15 000-km(2) area in the semiarid prairie near Swift Current| SK. The climate of the study region has changed over the past 50 yr. Annually| average maximum (T-mx) and minimum (T-mn) air temperatures have increased - rainfall amounts and the number of rainfall events (greater than or equal to 0.5 mm) have increased since the late 1960s-early 1970s; incoming solar energy has decreased| and wind speed has decreased since the early 1970s. Seasonally| for January through April (JFMA)| both T-mx and T-mn have increased| the number of rainfall events has increased since the early 1970s| snowfall amounts and the number of snowfall events (greater than or equal to 0.5 cm) have decreased; the number of precipitation events (greater than or equal to 0.5 mm) has decreased| incoming solar energy has decreased| and wind speed has decreased since the early 1970s. For May through August (MJJA)| T-mn has increased| incoming solar energy has decreased| and wind speed has decreased since the mid-1970s. For September through December (SOM))| the number of rainfall events has increased since the early 1970s and wind speed has decreased. Since 1950| JFMA has become drier and| relative to JFMA| SOND has become wetter. Generally| JFMA has experienced the largest change in climate| whereas SOND has experienced the least climate change. Precipitation amounts and events were negatively correlated with increasing T-mx| suggesting a future decrease in precipitation amounts for southwestern Saskatchewan if global warming continues. 5292,2000,2,3,Climate change: Potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States,Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter| warmer climate; some climate models suggest that this trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g.| sea-level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands| coastal and estuarine wetlands| peatlands| alpine wetlands| and prairie pothole wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function| and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peatlands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle| generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass| methane| dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere| serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses| allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea-level rises| active management to preserve wetland hydrology| and a wide range of other management and restoration options. 5287,2000,2,4,Climate variability and size-structured interactions among juvenile fish along a lake-stream gradient,We examine the influence of biological interactions and interannual variation in climate an the size structure and trophic interactions between age-0 largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and age-0 creek chubs (Semotilus atromaculatus) along a lake-stream gradient in northern Minnesota| USA. Considerable year-to-year variation in temperature and precipitation occurred during the 10-yr study (1983-1992)| with most extreme hut-dry conditions in 1988 during a 3-yr drought. Decreased stream temperature and reduced variation in temperature: occurred downstream from the lake outlet because of increased groundwater inputs. Age-0 bass were captured in the stream in each of the eight years sampled| but bass abundance peaked in downstream reaches in 1988| concurrent with a large increase in the downstream density of age-0 chubs. Median length ratio of bass to chubs increased greatly in the 1988 drought year. The shift in relative length of bass and chubs during the drought was because chub length decreased in downstream areas| and bass shifted from feeding an invertebrates to feeding on chubs in downstream but not in upstream reaches. Comparison of bass and chub growth in the presence and absence of interspecific competition for invertebrate resources in an experimental stream revealed higher growth rates for chubs than for bass and little interspecific competition. Experiments in the artificial stream indicated that the presence or absence of chubs susceptible to bass predation had only marginal effects on bass survival| but growth rates of bass were substantially higher if chubs susceptible to predation were present. Only when chubs were present was the growth of individual bass dependent strongly on size| and this led to rapid divergence in the size distribution of bass in chubs vs. no-chubs treatments. Our results indicate that hot-dry climatic conditions associated with drought have potentially strong effects on size-structured trophic interactions between age-0 fish along lake-stream gradients. Hot-dry climatic conditions alter the spatial distribution of lake fish along temperature gradients in the stream| the reproductive success and synchrony of lake and stream fish development| and the eventual growth of predatory lake species. The response of fish to climatic variation appears to be strongly influenced by their position in the "hydrologic landscape." The most dramatic fish response occurred in stream reaches influenced by groundwater. 5184,2000,5,2,Climatic control of blanket mire development at Kentra Moss| north-west Scotland,1 Four peat cores were collected from Kentra Moss| north-west Scotland| and analysed for botanical macrofossils and peat humification. The pollen record was used as a template for the identification of synchronous levels between cores. 2 A non-random pattern of change in bryophyte macrofossils and humification was simultaneous between all four cores. Stratigraphic changes occurred independently of human land-use and were best interpreted as palaeoclimatic events. Remains of Racomitrium lanuginosum and Sphagnum papillosum| in conjunction with changes in peat humification| provided the clearest indication of past increases in climatic wetness ('wetshifts') to impact upon mire hydrology and ecology. 3 Eight wetshifts were identified and radiocarbon-dated| beginning at c. 3250| 2550| 2150| 1400| 1150| 875| 600 and 325 calibrated years BP (cal. BP). Seven of these wetshifts match closely with palaeoclimatic events from a range of mires previously examined in Britain and Ireland. We suggest that blanket mires may provide the best source of decade- to century-scale palaeoclimatic information in oceanic north-west Europe. 4 The proxy-climatic evidence indicates that: (i) the extinction of Sphagnum imbricatum at Kentra Moss (at c. 1400 cal. BP) was caused by an increase in climatic and mire surface wetness| when it was replaced first by Racomitrium lanuginosum and then by Sphagnum papillosum; and (ii) that increased climatic wetness and human land-use were responsible for the shift from an early minerotrophic peatland to ombrotrophic blanket mire at c. 4070 cal. BP. 5 Given the evidence for a prevailing climatic effect on the development of Kentra Moss| the effect of human-induced global warming on Britain's blanket mire resource will probably be significant. British blanket mires have international conservation status| and future changes in their ecology will challenge conservationists| academics and politicians. 3088,2000,2,4,Climatic variation and simulated patterns in seedling establishment of two dominant grasses at a semi-arid-arid grassland ecotone,The objective of this study was to predict the effects of climatic variation at multiple temporal frequencies on seedling establishment by two congeneric C-4 perennial grasses (Bouteloua gracilis and B. eriopoda) at the ecotone between shortgrass steppe grassland and Chihuahuan desert grassland in central New Mexico| USA. The approach was to use a daily time-step simulation model to determine the occurrence of a recruitment event in each year based upon the amount and timing of soil water required for establishment. Historical weather data were used to predict effects of seasonal and interdecadal variation in climate on establishment. A sensitivity analysis was used to predict effects of directional climate change on establishment. Bouteloua gracilis had a broad pattern of simulated establishment from May through September that included periods with high year-to-year variation in precipitation. B. eriopoda establishment events occurred primarily in July when precipitation amounts were most reliable. Climatic conditions from 1949 through 1968 were more favorable for B. eriopoda establishment compared to the cooler| wetter conditions from 1969 through 1988 that favored B. gracilis. Establishment of B. eriopoda was lowest in El Nino years whereas B. gracilis establishment was highest in La Nina years. Establishment of B. gracilis was most sensitive to temperature when precipitation was higher than current amounts. The greatest response to temperature by B. eriopoda for all precipitation amounts occurred at cooler temperatures than found currently. These results indicate that climatic variation at multiple frequencies has differential effects on seedling establishment for these two perennial grasses| and may account at least in part for patterns in dominance at this biome transition zone. 3060,2000,2,4,Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades,Adequate knowledge of climatic change over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) with an average elevation of more than 4000 m above sea level (a.s.1.) has been insufficient for a long time owing to the lack of sufficient observational data. In the present study| monthly surface air temperature data were collected from almost every meteorological station on the TP since their establishment. There are 97 stations located above 2000 m a.s.1. on the TP; the longest records at five stations began before the 1930s| but most records date from the mid-1950s. Analyses of the temperature series show that the main portion of the TP has experienced statistically significant warming since the mid-1950s| especially in winter| but the recent warming in the central and eastern TP did not reach the level of the 1940s warm period until the late 1990s. Compared with the Northern Hemisphere and the global average| the warming of the TP occurred early. The linear rates of temperature increase over the TP during the period 1955-1996 are about 0.16 degreesC/decade for the annual mean and 0.32 degreesC/decade for the winter mean| which exceed those for the Northern Hemisphere and the same latitudinal zone in the same period. Furthermore| there is also a tendency for the warming trend to increase with the elevation in the TP and its surrounding areas. This suggests that the TP is one of the most sensitive areas to respond to global climate change. Copyright (C) 2000 Royal Meteorological Society. 5328,2000,2,4,Climatological significance of an ice core net-accumulation record at Mt. Qomolangma (Everest),An ice core record at Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) since 1954 reveals a sharp decline in net-accumulation in the 1960s| and the annual net-accumulation during the 1970s to the beginning of the 1990s is only half of that at the end of the 1950s. The decreased net-accumulation is coincident with glacier retreat| which is associated with recent temperature increase in the region that intensified the ablation. Under the background of global warming| such glacier variation trends will aggravate. 5190,2000,3,3,CO2 sequestration at sea by gas-lift system of shallow injection and deep releasing,To mitigate global warming| a system dissolving huge amounts of CO2 gas captured from fossil fuel fired power plants into the ocean with high acceptance by the ocean environment is indispensable. To this aim| we propose a sequestration system of CO2 in the deep ocean. The system is an inverse-J pipeline set in the ocean at a depth of 200-3000 m. In the system| a pumping effect by buoyancy of the dissolving CO2 bubbles is used to transport CO2-rich seawater to great depths. in the present paper| we discuss characteristics and performance of our proposal on the basis of experimental and numerical investigation. in a laboratory-scale experiment (pipe diameter of 25 mm and pipe height of 7.69 m)| we observed over 98% dissolution of injected CO2 gas into tap water. The liquid-phase flow caused by gas-rift effect was strong enough to transport the CO2-rich water including nondissolved tiny bubbles into the deep ocean. Then a numerical simulation based on the experimentally derived models was applied to a system considering 10 MW class power plants. The results showed that our proposal is hopeful for an efficient method of CO2 disposal into the deep ocean. 5144,2000,3,2,Coal gasification system using nuclear heat for ammonia production,Utilization of nuclear energy is an effective way of solving the global warming resulting from CO2 emissions. Thermal energy accounts for more than two thirds of total energy utilization at present and therefore it is significant to extend the utilization of nuclear heat for the effective reduction of CO2 emissions in the world. This paper describes a coal gasification system using HTGR nuclear heat in an ammonia production plant in terms of industrial utilization of the nuclear heat. The system uses the nuclear heat directly in addition to generating electricity. A steam reforming method using a two-stage coal gasifier is employed: it improves the heat utilization efficiency of the secondary helium gas from the: HTGR. Finally| the paper clarifies that the nuclear gasification system can reduce CO2 emissions by about five hundred thousand tons per year from that of a conventional system using fossil fuel. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5309,2000,2,4,Coastal-zone biogeochemical dynamics under global warming,The coastal zone| consisting of the continental shelves to a depth of 200 meters| including bays| lagoons| estuaries| and near-shore banks| is an environment that is strongly affected by its biogeochemical and physical interactions with reservoirs in the adjacent domains of land. atmosphere| open ocean. and marine sediments. Because the coastal zone is smaller in volume and areal coverage relative to the open ocean| it traditionally has been studied as an integral part of the global oceans. In tl-lis paper| we show by numerical modeling that it is important to consider the coastal zone as an entity separate from the open ocean in any assessment of future Earth-system response under human perturbation. Model analyses for the early part of the 21st century suggest that the coastal zone plays a significant modifying role in the biogeochemical dynamics of the carbon cycle and the nutrient cycles coupled to it. This role is manifested in changes in primary production| storage| and/or export of organic matter| its remineralization. and calcium carbonate precipitation-all of which determine the state of the coastal zone with respect to exchange of CO(2) with the atmosphere. Under a scenario of future reduced or complete cessation of the thermohaline circulation (THC) of the global oceans| coastal waters become an important sink for atmospheric CO(2)| as opposed to the conditions in the past and present| when coastal waters are believed to be a source of CO(2)| to the atmosphere. Profound changes in coastal-zone primary productivity underscore the important role of phosphorus as a limiting nutrient. In addition| our calculations indicate that the saturation state of coastal waters with respect to carbonate minerals will decline by similar to 15% by the year 2030. Any future slowdown in the THC of the oceans will increase slightly the rate of decline in saturation state. 3071,2000,5,4,Cold rocks| hot sands: In-situ cosmogenic applications in Australia at ANTARES,The ANTARES AMS facility at ANSTO is conducting a comprehensive program in the application of in-situ cosmogenic radionuclides based on strong university collaborations in the earth sciences. The program targets two major objectives: (1) to determine and improve the Quaternary glacial chronology of the Southern Hemisphere in support of global climate change studies; (2) to characterise the processes of surface weathering and landscape evolution in semi-arid regions of the Australian continent. An overview of the program is presented with preliminary results from the first phase of these studies. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B|V| All rights reserved. 5199,2000,2,4,Comparing species temperature response curves: population density versus second-hand data,Descriptions of individual species responses to temperature are required in order to assess the impact of future global warming. The response of Rhododendrom arboreum to estimated mean annual temperature was investigated in the Himalayas using General Additive Models (GAM) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM). The aim was to evaluate the consistency between the response in population density along elevation gradients versus response curves based on elevation data from herbarium specimens and vegetation surveys. The comparison was made with respect to (1) estimated temperature at the point of maximum response and (2) the shape of the response curves i.e. symmetric vs skewed. All data indicate a single optimum between 12.3 and 10.8 degreesC. The difference is only 0.4 degreesC between the optimum estimated from localities of herbarium specimens (frequency) and the population density data. The difference is larger (0.7 degreesC) when the vegetation survey data are combined with the data from the herbarium specimens. However| the differences are small when the uncertainties in temperature estimation are taken into consideration. The response curves based on herbarium specimens and vegetation survey data (frequencies) are symmetric. A sigmoid response curve was estimated from herbarium specimens (binomial data). The population density along the elevation gradients was| to some extent| asymmetric. This may reflect the underlying biological structure| but sampling bias and the numerical analyses may also influence the results. 3096,2000,3,4,Conservation practices in US agriculture and their implication for global climate change,Increase in the use of conservation practices by agriculture in the United States will enhance soil organic carbon and potentially increase carbon sequestration. This| in turn| will decrease the net emission of carbon dioxide. A number of studies exist that calibrate the contribution of various individual| site-specific conservation practices on changes in soil organic carbon. There is a general absence| however| of a comprehensive effort to measure objectively the contribution of these practices including conservation tillage| the Conservation Reserve Program and conservation buffer strips to an change in soil organic carbon. This paper fills that void. After recounting the evolution of the use of the various conservation practices| it is estimated that organic carbon in the soil in 1998 in the United States attributable to these practices was approximately 12200000 metric tons. By 2008| there will be an increase of approximately 25%. Given that there is a significant potential for conservation practices to lead to an increase in carbon sequestration| there are a number of policy options that can be pursued. These include education and technical assistance| financial assistance| research and development| land retirement and regulation and taxes. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5353,2000,3,4,Considering the next generation of nuclear power plants,Nuclear power will be needed for future energy demands| which are expected to grow at different rates around the world. The opportunities for building new nuclear power plants around the world will be depend on need| energy demand growth| and issues related to global warming and climate change. However| four major barriers exist for the expansion of nuclear power: economics| proliferation| safety| and waste. These issues must be addressed in the ongoing research and development of nuclear energy technology and applications. The evolution of nuclear power plant technology is presented as four distinct design generations: (1) prototypes| (2) current operating plants| (3) advanced light water reactor technology| and (4) revolutionary design concepts (i.e.| Generation IV) that are now under development. The U.S. DOE Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) program is focused on the research and development of Generation IV designs that are safe| economic| proliferation-resistant| and will address current waste issues. NERI provides grants for independently peer-reviewed proposals from universities| national laboratories and industry for advanced nuclear research and development. Several NERI projects awarded in 1999 are described in terms of how they remove barriers to nuclear power plant expansion. Another DOE effort| the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste program| will seek to reduce and ameliorate civilian reactor waste. The Accelerator Transmutation of Waste program will involve a six-year science-based research plan to define key technical issues. Finally| the need for international collaboration is stressed for fourth-generation nuclear power technology development. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 5298,2000,3,4,Consistent sets of atmospheric lifetimes and radiative forcings on climate for CFC replacements: HCFCs and HFCs,Recognition of deleterious effects of chlorine and bromine on ozone and climate over the last several decades has resulted in international accords to halt the production of chlorine-containing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and bromine-containing halons. It is well recognized| however| that these chemicals have had important uses to society| particularly as refrigerants| as solvents| as plastic blowing agents| as fire retardants and as aerosol propellants. This has led to an extensive search far substitute chemicals with appropriate properties to be used in place of the CFCs and halons. The purpose of this study is to evaluate in a consistent manner the atmospheric lifetime and radiative forcing on climate for a number of replacement compounds. The unique aspect of this study is its attempt to resolve inconsistencies in previous evaluations of atmospheric lifetimes and radiative forcings for these compounds by adopting a uniform approach. Using the latest version of our two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the global atmosphere| we have determined the atmospheric lifetimes of 28 hydrohalocarbons (HCFCs and HFCs). Through the comparison of the model-calculated lifetimes with lifetimes derived using a simple scaling method| our study adds to earlier findings that consideration of stratospheric losses is important in determining the lifetimes of gases| Discrepancies were found in the reported lifetimes of several replacement compounds reported in the international assessment of stratospheric ozone published by the World Meteorological Organization [Granier et al.| 1999] and have been resolved. We have also derived the adjusted and instantaneous radiative forcings for CFC-11 and 20 other halocarbons using our radiative transfer model. The sensitivity of radiative forcings to the vertical distribution of these gases is investigated in this study and is shown to be significant. The difference in the global radiative forcing arising from the assumption of a constant vertical profile for these gases is found to range from 0 to 36%| with higher difference for short-lived gases. Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for the compounds are determined using the lifetimes and radiative forcings evaluated in this study and are found to differ from values reported by Granier et al. [1999] owing to the differences in our calculated radiative forcings and lifetimes. 3105,2000,2,4,Contribution of agrometeorology to the simulation of crop production and its applications,Weather has a significant impact on crop growth and development. This paper presents an overview of crop modeling and applications of crop models| and the significance of weather related to these applications. To account for the impact of weather and climate variability on crop production. agrometeorological variables are one of the key inputs required for the operation of crop simulation models. These include maximum and minimum air temperature| total solar radiation| and total rainfall. Most models use daily data as input| because variables at a smaller time scale are usually unavailable for most locations. It is important to define standard file formats for weather and other input data; this will expand the applicability of weather data by different models. Issues related to missing variables and data| as well as locations for which no data are available| need to be addressed for model applications| as it can affect the accuracy of the simulations. Weather generators can be used to stochastically generate daily data when data are missing or long-term historical data are unavailable. However| the use of observed weather data for model input will provide more precise crop yield simulations| especially for tropical regions. Many of the crop models have been applied towards strategic and tactical management decision making as well as yield forecasting. The predicted variability of crop yield and related variables as well as natural resource use is mainly due to the short- and long-term variation of weather and climate conditions. The results produced by the models can be used to make appropriate management decisions and to provide farmers and others with alternative options for their farming system. The crop models have been used extensively to study the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security. Recently| they have also been applied towards the impact of climate variability and the effect of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on agricultural production and food security. It is expected that| with the increased availability of computers| the use of crop models by farmers and consultants as well as policy and decision makers will increase. Weather data in the form of historical data or observations made during the current growing season| and short-| medium-| and long-term weather forecasts will play a critical role in these applications. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3093,2000,4,3,Contribution of carbonate rock weathering to the atmospheric CO2 sink,To accurately predict future CO2 levels in the atmosphere| which is crucial in predicting global climate change| the sources and sinks of the atmosphere CO2 and their change over time must be determined. In this paper| some typical cases are examined using published and unpublished data. Firstly| the sensitivity of carbonate rock weathering (including the effects by both dissolution and reprecipitation of carbonate) to the change of soil CO2 and runoff will be discussed| and then the net amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere in the carbonate rock areas of mainland China and the world will be determined by the hydrochem-discharge and carbonate-rock-tablet methods| to obtain an estimate of the contribution of carbonate rock weathering to the atmospheric CO2 sink. These contributions are about 0.018 billion metric tons of carbon/a and 0.11 billion metric tons of carbon/a for China and the world| respectively. Further| by the DBL (Diffusion Boundary Layer)-model calculation| the potential CO2 sink by carbonate rock dissolution is estimated to be 0.41 billion metric tons of carbon/a for the world. Therefore| the potential CO2 source by carbonate reprecipitation is 0.3 billion metric tons of carbon/a. 5213,2000,3,3,Cooling down hot air: a global CGE analysis of post-Kyoto carbon abatement strategies,The Kyoto Protocol marks a break through in global warming mitigation policies as it sets legally binding emissions targets for major emitting regions. However| realization of the Protocol depends on the clarification of several issues| one of which is the permissible scope of international emissions trading between signatory countries. Unrestricted trade produces hot air when signatory countries| whose Kyoto targets are well above their business as usual emissions| trade in larger amounts of "abundant" emission rights. Concerns on hot air motivated proposals for caps on emissions trading by the EU. These caps are strictly refused by the USA and other non-European industrialized countries who want to exploit the full efficiency gains from trade. In this paper we show that there are "cooling down" strategies which can reconcile both positions. International permit trade provides enough efficiency gains to make all signatory countries better off than they would be without permit trade while mitigating hot air. In other words| part of the efficiency gains from free trade could be used to pay for higher abatement targets of signatory countries which assure the same environmental effectiveness as compared to strictly domestic action or restricted permit trade. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. JEL classification: Q2; Q4; D58. 3073,2000,2,2,Coral bleaching and global climate change: Scientitic findings and policy recommendations,In 1998| tropical sea surface temperatures were the highest on record| topping off a 50-year trend for some tropical oceans. In the same year| coral reefs around the world suffered the most extensive and severe bleaching (loss of symbiotic algae) and subsequent mortality on record. These events may not be attributable to local stressors or natural variability alone but were likely induced by nit underlying global phenomenon. It is probable that anthropogenic global warming has contributed to the extensive coral blenching that has occurred simultaneously throughout the reef regions of the world The geographic extent| increasing frequency| and regional severity of mass bleaching events are an apparent result of a steadily rising baseline of marine temperatures| combined with regionally specific El Nino and La Nina events. The repercussions of the 1998 mass bleaching and mortality events will be far-reaching. Human populations dependent on reef services face losses of marine biodiversity| fisheries| and shoreline protection. Coral bleaching events may become more frequent and severe as the climate continues to warm| exposing coral reefs to an increasingly hostile environment. This global threat to corals compounds the Effects of more localized anthropogenic factors that already place reefs at risk. Significant attention needs to be given to the monitoring of coral reef ecosystems| research on the projected and realized effects of global climate change| and measures to curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Even those reefs with well-enforced legal protection as marine sanctuaries| or those managed for sustainable use| are threatened by global climate change. 5358,2000,2,4,Cyclicity and some characteristics of mass reproduction of Calliptamus italicus L. in southern Russia,Analysis of the reproductive dynamics of Calliptamus italicus during the past 100 years confirmed the dependence of locust invasions on the 11-year cycles of solar activity| which was previously known for other gregarious locusts. Over a considerable part of the species range| the onset of mass reproduction is promoted by a hot and droughty spring and summer. The scale of the outbreak is determined by local conditions in the foci of reproduction. The current global warming is characterized by an unstable| drastically varying climate with a trend toward aridity in many regions. If this trend persists for several decades| we may expect an increase in the periods of C. talicus mass reproduction and in the persistency and extent of damage indicted by locusts on vast Palearctic areas. 3138,2000,4,4,Data assimilation in sea-ice monitoring,The detection of small changes in concentration or thickness in the Arctic or Antarctic ice cover is an important topic in the current global-climate-change debate. Change detection using satellite data alone requires rigorous error analysis for their derived ice products| including inter-satellite validation for long time series. All models of physical processes are only approximations| and the best models of complicated physical processes have errors and uncertainties. A promising approach is data assimilation| combining model| in situ data and satellite remote-sensing data. Sea-ice monitoring from satellite| ice-model estimates| and the potential benefit of combining the two are discussed in some detail. In a case-study we demonstrate how the sea-ice backscatter for the Beaufort Sea region was derived using a backscattering model in combination with an ice model. We conclude that| for data assimilation| the first steps include the use of simple models| moving| with success at this level| to progressively more complex models. We also recommend reconfiguring the current remote-sensing data to include precise time tags with each pixel. For example| the current Special Sensor Microwave Imager data might be reissued in a time-tagged orbital (or gridded) format as opposed to the currently available daily averaged gridded data. Finally error statistics and quality-control information also need to be readily available in a form useful for assimilation. The effectiveness of data-assimilation techniques is directly linked to the availability of data error statistics. 3130,2000,2,3,Dependence of salinity and oxygen concentrations in the Baltic Sea on large-scale atmospheric circulation,The relationship between the low-frequency (annually averaged) salinity and oxygen concentrations in the last 30 yr in the Baltic Sea and the large-scale atmospheric circulation was statistically analyzed. Ii: was found that at these time scales the evolution of salinity and oxygen is guile homogeneous in depth| i.e. deviations from the long-term mean tend to be of the same sign in the upper and deeper layers simultaneously. Moreover| the evolution of the salinity and oxygen concentrations are negatively correlated within each layer: lower than normal salinities tend to be observed simultaneously with higher than normal oxygen concentrations| and vice versa. The statistical analysis seems to indicate that the forcing by the atmospheric circulation may be responsible for this anticorrelation between salinity and oxygen. A stronger meridional sea-level-pressure (SLP) gradient over the North Atlantic| and therefore stronger westerly winds| causes positive rainfall anomalies in the Baltic Sea catchment area and increase run-off giving rise to decreased salinities at all depths. The mechanisms by which a stronger zonal atmospheric circulation enhances the oxygen concentrations may be related either to a weakened stratification through the reduced salinity (at long time scales)| or by stronger or more frequent inflows of North Sea waters (at short time scales). The influence of the atmospheric circulation can explain at these time scales of the order of 60 and 40 % of the variability of these hydrographic variables| respectively. The question of how salinity and oxygen in the Baltic Sea may respond to changes of the atmospheric circulation in a global climate change scenario is also addressed. For this purpose the intensities of the relevant atmospheric circulation patterns in a transient experiment with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model forced with increasing anthropogenic green house gas concentrations between the years 1860 and 2099 were estimated. In this integration the change of the atmospheric circulation most relevant for salinity and oxygen in the Baltic Sea seems to be an enhancement of the meridional SLP gradient in the North Atlantic. Thus| under the assumption that the statistical relationship between SLP and the hydrographic variables also holds in the future| this trend in the atmospheric circulation would lead to decreased salinity and improved oxygen conditions in the Baltic Sea. 3141,2000,2,4,Desiccation tolerance of three moss species from continental Antarctica,Tolerance of desiccation was examined in three species of moss| Grimmia antarctici Card.| Ceratodon purpureus (Hedw.) Brid. and Bryum pseudotriquetrum (Hedw.) Gaertn.| Meyer et Scherb. collected from two sites of contrasting water availability in the Windmill Islands| continental Antarctica. Physiological tolerance to desiccation was measured using chlorophyll fluorescence in plugs of moss during natural drying in the laboratory. Differences in relative water content| rate of drying and the response of photosynthesis to desiccation were observed among the three species and between sites. Of the three species studied| G. antarctici showed the lowest capacity to sustain photosynthetic processes during desiccation| B. pseudotriquetrum had an intermediate response and showed the greatest plasticity and C. purpureus showed the greatest capacity to sustain photosynthesis during desiccation. These results fit well with the known distribution of the three species with G. antarctici being limited to relatively wet sites| C. purpureus being common in the driest sites and B. pseudotriquetrum showing a wide distribution between these two extremes. Levels of soluble carbohydrates were also measured in these samples following desiccation and these indicate the presence of stachyose| an oligosaccharide known to be important in desiccation tolerance in seeds| in B. pseudotriquetrum. Both gross morphology and carbohydrate content are likely to contribute to differences in desiccation tolerance of the moss species. These results indicate that if the Casey region continues to dry out| as a result of local geological uplifting or global climate change| we would expect to see not only reductions in the moss community but also changes in community composition. G. antarctici is likely to become more limited in distribution as C. purpureus and B. pseudotriquetrum expand into drying areas. 5145,2000,4,2,Detecting a global warming signal in hemispheric temperature series: A structural time series analysis,Non-stationary time series such as global and hemispheric temperatures| greenhouse gas concentrations| solar irradiance| and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols| may contain stochastic trends (the simplest stochastic trend is a random walk) which| due to their unique patterns| can act as a signal of the influence of other variables on the series in question. Two or more series may share a common stochastic trend| which indicates that either one series causes the behavior of the other or that there is a common driving variable. Recent developments in econometrics allow analysts to detect and classify such trends and analyze relationships among series that contain stochastic trends. We apply some univariate autoregression based tests to evaluate the presence of stochastic trends in several time series for temperature and radiative forcing. The temperature and radiative forcing series are found to be of different orders of integration which would cast doubt on the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis. However| these tests can suffer from size distortions when applied to noisy series such as hemispheric temperatures. We| therefore| use multivariate structural time series techniques to decompose Northern and Southern Hemisphere temperatures into stochastic trends and autoregressive noise processes. These results show that there are two independent stochastic trends in the data. We investigate the possible origins of these trends using a regression method. Radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases and solar irradiance can largely explain the common trend. The second trend| which represents the non-scalar non-stationary differences between the hemispheres| reflects radiative forcing due to tropospheric sulfate aerosols. We find similar results when we use the same techniques to analyze temperature data generated by the Hadley Centre GCM SUL experiment. 5277,2000,2,4,Differential response of a sensitive and tolerant sugarbeet line to Cercospora beticola infection and UV-B radiation,Increased ultraviolet-B (UV-B| 280-320 nm) radiation| due to depletion of stratospheric ozone| is an increasing threat to living organisms. Furthermore| increased ground level temperatures as a consequence of global warming may favour development of pathogens| such as Cercospora beticola| that thrive at high temperatures. This study evaluates the effect of combined UV stress and Cercospora leaf-spot disease on young sugarbeet plants (Beta vulgaris L.). An inoculum consisting of twelve European isolates of C| beticola Sacc| was used in the experiments| One Cercospora-sensitive and one Cercospora-tolerant sugarbeet line were analysed from growth regimes where plants were grown either under visible radiation alone or with supplemental UV-B| Photosynthetic pigments and partial reactions of photosynthesis| including potential yield and quantum yield under illumination| non-photochemical quenching (q(NPQ)) and photochemical quenching (q(P))| were measured to assess plant response. The combination of Cercospora a and supplemental UV-B radiation in the sensitive line resulted in a decreased photosynthetic efficiency| shown by q(NPQ) and quantum yield under illumination as compared with that for either stress applied alone. The F(v)/F(m) was unchanged for plants subjected to UV-B radiation without infection| although the q(NPQ) decreased| The Cercospora-tolerant line showed no significant differences under the different treatments| Thus| the line tolerant to Cercospora infection also proved to be tolerant to UV-B radiation alone and in combination with the infection. 5249,2000,4,3,Disagreement between predictions of the future behavior of the Arctic Oscillation as simulated in two different climate models: Implications for global warming,Two global climate models (HadCM2 and ECHAM) forced with the same greenhouse-gas scenario (IS92a) are found to disagree in their simulated long-term trends of the intensity of the Arctic Oscillation (AO)| an atmospheric circulation pattern of the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated AO trends are strongly dependent on the model and on the initial conditions of the simulations. The simulated winter temperature increase averaged over the Northern hemisphere is very similar in both models. However| the effect of the different AO trends on temperature causes clear differences in the predicted regional warming| which are reduced if the effects of the AO is linearly discounted. The uncertainty in the predictions of circulation changes has impacts bn the estimation of regional temperature changes. 5178,2000,4,4,Dissolution characteristics of liquid carbon dioxide injected at the intermediate depth of the ocean,The solubility| the surface concentration and the dissolution behavior of carbon dioxide in deep sea were numerically investigated. Base on the calculations the relations between the surface concentration of liquid carbon dioxide droplet with the hydrate film and the solubility and those between the ambient carbon dioxide concentration in the plume and the dissolution rate were obtained. The results show that a carbon dioxide droplet is released both at 1000 m in depth with the initial droplet diameter of 0.011 m or less and at 1500 m in depth with a diameter of 0.015 m or less| and the droplet is completely dissolved below 500 m in depth. The hydrate film acts as a resistant layer for the dissolution of liquid carbon dioxide| and the effect of the hydrate film on the dissolution of liquid carbon dioxide depended upon the depth. 5256,2000,4,4,Dissolution of buoyant CO2 drops in a counterflow water tunnel simulating the deep ocean waters,We investigated the dissolution of CO:! drops in a high pressure counterflow water tunnel simulating ocean conditions down to 2000 m below the ocean surface. In comparison of the behavior of the buoyant CO2 drops observed in our experiments with that reported previously for motionless CO2 drops in seawater or water| the following significant differences are noticed: (1) the CO2 drops in buoyant motion dissolve much faster than the motionless CO2 drops and (2) hydrate does not always form on the buoyant CO2 drops| as it was reported in the literature to be an unavoidable phenomenon on the motionless drops. This suggests that buoyant motion influences the physical and chemical behavior of the CO2 drops in seawater dramatically. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5315,2000,5,4,Ecological response of mammals to global warming in the late Paleocene and early Eocene,http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/11035890001221077
5254,2000,2,2,Economic analysis of the potential impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains: An application of a nested multinomial logit model,Global warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect through human activities has become a major public policy issue in recent years. The present study focuses on the potential economic impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina. Significant reductions in trout habitat and/or populations are anticipated under global warming since the study area is on the extreme margins of trout habitat of the eastern U.S. The purpose of this study is to estimate the potential welfare loss of trout anglers due to global warming. A nested multinomial logit model was developed and estimated to describe the angler's fishing choice behavior. The estimated median welfare loss (Compensating Variation) range from $5.63 to $53.18 per angler per single occasion under the various diminished trout habitat and/or population scenarios. 3089,2000,3,4,Economics of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from solid waste in Lebanon,Global climate change has been one of the challenging environmental concerns facing policy makers over the past decade. The characterization of the wide range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission sources and sinks| as well as their behavior in the atmosphere| remains a continuing activity in many countries| Solid waste is considered a source of greenhouse gas emissions owing to microbial decomposition of organic materials| which constitute the greater portion of solid waste. The extent of these emissions is highly dependent on waste management practices. In many countries| landfills remain an essential part of any waste management system and often the only economic form of municipal solid waste disposal. This paper describes solid waste management practices in Lebanon| estimates the corresponding current and future greenhouse gas emissions from this sector| and proposes mitigation alternatives to reduce these emissions. An economic assessment of these alternatives in the context of characteristics specific to the country is also presented in terms of equivalent cost of emission reduction. 5210,2000,3,4,Effect of nitrogen fertilization| cropping and irrigation on soil air composition and nitrous oxide emission in a loamy clay,Most of the nitrous oxide (N2O) in the atmosphere| thought to be involved in global warming| is emitted from soil. Although the main factors controlling the production of N2O in soil are well known| we need more quantitative data on the interactions of soil and the environment in the soil that affect the emission. We therefore studied the effects of irrigation| cropping (fallow| barley with grass undersown) and N fertilization (unfertilized| 103 kg N ha(-1)) on the composition of soil air and direct N2O emission from soil (using the closed chamber method) in a factorial field experiment on a well-structured loamy clay soil during 1 June-22 October 1993. The measurements were made weekly during the growing season and three times after harvesting. The composition of the soil air did not indicate severe anoxia in any treatment or combination of treatments| but the accumulation of N2O in the soil air indicated that hypoxia was common. At the start of the irrigation the emissions were small| even though there was much ammonium and nitrate in the soil and therefore a potential for emission of N2O produced by both nitrification and denitrification. Larger emissions occurred later. The largest emissions were found when 60-90% of the soil pore space was filled with water. Irrigation and fertilization with N both roughly doubled the cumulative N2O emission. Growing a crop decreased it by a factor of 3-7. Most N2O was lost from the irrigated fertilized soil under fallow (3.5 kg N ha(-1))| and least from the unirrigated unfertilized soil under barley (0.1 kg N ha(-1)). 5299,2000,4,3,Effect of water vapor feedback on internal and anthropogenic variations of the global hydrologic cycle,Using two versions of the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere model| one where water vapor anomalies are allowed to affect the longwave radiation calculation and one where they are not| we examine the role of water vapor feedback in internal precipitation variability and greenhouse-gas-forced intensification of the hydrologic cycle. Without external forcing| the experiment with water vapor feedback produces 44% more annual-mean| global-mean precipitation variability than the one without. We diagnose the reason for this difference: In both experiments| global-mean surface temperature anomalies are associated with water vapor anomalies. However| when water vapor interacts with longwave radiation|the temperature anomalies are associated with larger anomalies in surface downward longwave radiation. This increases the temperature anomaly damping through latent heat flux| creating an evaporation anomaly. The evaporation anomaly| in turn| leads to an anomaly of nearly the same magnitude in precipitation. In the experiment without water vapor feedback| this mechanism is absent. While the interaction between longwave and water vapor has a large impact on the global hydrologic cycle internal variations| its effect decreases as spatial scales decrease| so water vapor feedback has only a very small impact on grid-scale hydrologic variability. Water vapor feedback also affects the hydrologic cycle intensification when greenhouse gas concentrations increase. By the 5th century of global warming experiments where CO2 is increased and then fixed at its doubled value| the global-mean precipitation increase is nearly an order of magnitude larger when water vapor feedback is present. The cause of this difference is similar to the cause of the difference in internal precipitation variability: When water vapor feedback is present| the increase in water vapor associated with a warmer climate enhances downward longwave radiation. To maintain surface heat balance| evaporation increases| leading to a similar increase in precipitation. This effect is absent in the experiment without water vapor feedback. The large impact of water vapor feedback on hydrologic cycle intensification does not weaken as spatial scales decrease| unlike the internal variability case. Accurate representations of water vapor feedback are therefore necessary to simulate global-scale hydrologic variability and intensification of the hydrologic cycle in global warming. 3061,2000,2,4,Effects and outcomes of Caribbean hurricanes in a climate change scenario,Hurricanes are complex disturbance systems with significant effects on vegetation and built-up land. This paper summarizes research on the effects and outcomes of hurricanes on Caribbean forests. Twelve effects and outcome topics are presented: sudden and massive tree mortality; delayed patterns of tree mortality; alternative methods of forest regeneration; opportunities for a change in successional direction; high species turnover and opportunities for species change in forests; diversity of age classes; faster biomass and nutrient turnover; species substitutions and changes in turnover time of biomass and nutrients; lower aboveground biomass in mature vegetation; carbon sinks; selective pressure on organisms; and convergence of community structure and organization. Effects of hurricanes on urban systems are also discussed. While there is scientific uncertainty as to whether hurricane frequencies and intensity will change as a result of global climate change| available understanding on the effects and outcomes of hurricanes can be used to anticipate possible effects of either increasing or decreasing hurricane frequency and intensity. Proposed mitigation actions and research priorities can be effective and desirable even if the frequency and intensity of hurricanes remains unchanged. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3084,2000,2,4,Effects of elevated CO(2) and temperature-grown red and sugar maple on gypsy moth performance,Few studies have investigated how tree species grown under elevated CO(2) and elevated temperature alter the performance of leaf-feeding insects. The indirect effects of an elevated CO(2) concentration and temperature on leaf phytochemistry| along with potential direct effects on insect growth and consumption| may independently or interactively affect insects. To investigate this| we bagged larvae of the gypsy moth on leaves of red and sugar maple growing in open-top chambers in four CO(2)/temperature treatment combinations: (i) ambient temperature| ambient CO(2); (ii) ambient temperature| elevated CO(2) (+ 300 mu L L(-1) CO(2)); (iii) elevated temperature (+ 3.5 degrees C)| ambient CO(2); and (iv) elevated temperature| elevated CO(2). For both tree species| leaves grown at elevated CO(2) concentration were significantly reduced in leaf nitrogen concentration and increased in C:N ratio| while neither temperature nor its interaction with CO(2) concentration had any effect. Depending on the tree species| leaf water content declined (red maple) and carbon-based phenolics increased (sugar maple) on plants grown in an enriched CO(2) atmosphere. The only observed effect of elevated temperature on leaf phytochemistry was a reduction in leaf water content of sugar maple leaves. Gypsy moth larval responses were dependent on tree species. Larvae feeding on elevated CO(2)-grown red maple leaves had reduced growth| while temperature had no effect on the growth or consumption of larvae. No significant effects of either temperature or CO(2) concentration were observed for larvae feeding on sugar maple leaves. Our data demonstrate strong effects of CO(2) enrichment on leaf phytochemical constituents important to folivorous insects| while an elevated temperature largely has little effect. We conclude that alterations in leaf chemistry due to an elevated CO(2) atmosphere are more important in this plant-folivorous insect system than either the direct short-term effects of temperature on insect performance or its indirect effects on leaf chemistry. 3076,2000,2,4,Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator,A multiperiod| regional| mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed| ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic forest sector model and results are summarized in response functions that may be used instead of rerunning the model as improved or altered biological response scenarios arise. The response functions are used to characterize broad impacts of climate change on the sector. We find that aggregate impacts (across all consumers and producers in the sector) are relatively small but that producers income and future welfare 30 to 40 yr in the future are most at risk. The forest sector is found to have adjustment mechanisms that mitigate climate change impacts| including interregional migration of production| substitution in consumption| and altered stand management. 3067,2000,2,4,Effects of temperature and moisture on carbon respired from decomposing woody roots,Controls of temperature and moisture on root decomposition have not been well studied despite their direct relevance to climate change impacts on root carbon flux. The main objective of this laboratory study was to examine the respiration response of Sitka spruce| Douglas-fir| western hemlock| ponderosa pine| and lodgepole pine decomposing roots (1-3 cm in diameter) to temperature and moisture change. Roots of Sitka spruce| Douglas-fir and western hemlock| and ponderosa pine and lodgepole pine were collected from Cascade Head| H.J. Andrews| and Pringle Falls site| respectively. Dead root respiration increased with temperature and reached the maximum at 30-40 degreesC| and then decreased. Analysis of covariance indicated that the Q(10) of root decomposition rate was influenced significantly (p<0.01) by incubation temperature range 5-40'Solomon discusses what has worked and what has not worked in emissions trading systems from the standpoint of environmental justice. He suggests that all instances of environmental injustice should be recognized and addressed."
5258,2000,3,4,Energy efficiency fallacies revisited,A number of governments including that of the UK subscribe to the belief that a national program devoted to raising energy efficiency throughout the economy provides a costless - indeed profitable - route to meeting international environmental obligations. This is a seductive policy. It constitutes the proverbial "free lunch"- not only avoiding politically unpopular measures like outlawing| taxing or rationing offending fuels or expanding non-carboniferous sources of energy like nuclear power but doing so with economic benefit. The author of this contribution came to doubt the validity of this solution when it was offered as a way of mitigating the effect of the OPEC price hikes of the 1970| maintaining that economically justified improvement in energy efficiency led to higher levels of energy consumption at the economy-wide level than in the absence of any efficiency response. More fundamentally| he argues that there is no case for preferentially singling out energy| from among all the resources available to us| for efficiency maximization. The least damaging policy is to determine targets| enact the restrictive measures needed to curb consumption| and then leave it to consumers - intermediate and final - to reallocate all the resources available to them to best effect subject to the new enacted constraints and any others they might be experiencing. There is no reason to suppose that it is right for all the economic adjustment following a new resource constraint to take the form of improvements in the productivity of that resource alone. As many others have argued| any action to impose resource constraint entails an inevitable economic cost in the shape of a reduction in production and consumption possibilities: there would be no "free lunch". In the last few years debate about the validity of these contentions has blossomed| especially under the influence of writers on the Western side of the Atlantic. In this contribution the author outlines the original arguments for questioning whether raised efficiency leads to lower consumption| reports more recent developments and offers some insights as food for further thought. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5267,2000,2,4,Enhancing effect of marine oligotrophy on environmental concentrations of particle-reactive trace elements,A biogeochemical model has been previously developed that explains the inverse and nonlinear relationship between Po-210 concentration in zooplankton and their biomass| under oligotrophic conditions in French Polynesia. in this study the model structure was reviewed to determine a set of biogeochemical behaviors of Po-210| proposed to be critical to its environmental enhancement under oligotrophy: this set was then used to identify 25 other elements with comparable behaviors to Po-210. Field investigation in the Timer Sea showed that four of these a priori identified elements| viz. Cd| Co| Ph| and Mn as well as Cr and Ni| showed elevated water concentrations with reduced particle removal rates in the euphotic zone| results that are consistent with those previously obtained for Po-210 and the proposed explanatory model. These findings point to the enhanced susceptibility to contamination with particle-reactive elements of oligotrophic marine systems| whose degree and geographic extent may be enhanced by projected increases in sea surface temperatures from global warming. 5381,2000,5,4,Environment and climate of Quaternary periods of warming in southern West Siberia,Comparison of Pleistocene soils in complete loess sections of southern West Siberia has shown a distinct trend in evolution of soil formation and climate during Pleistocene periods of warming and has confirmed the absence of Lower and Middle Pleistocene interstadial soils attested by studies of Pleistocene loess sections in East Europe. Analysis of periodicity and duration of Pleistocene warmings allowed an inference that the Late Pleistocene climate changes differed in amplitude and frequency from those in the Early and Middle Pleistocene| when the territory of southern Siberia was dominated by moderate warm and humid climate. The amplitude and frequency of climatic fluctuations changed significantly after the Kazantsevian interglacial. Warming periods at that time were much shorter| cooler| and more arid. Despite the fact that the Holocene interglacial was cooler than the latest one (Kazantsevian| Eemian)| it was much longer and warmer than the short warmings of Early Zyryanian and Karginian time. Thus| the trend of Late Cenozoic climatic changes has been turned to warming since Holocene time. It was found out that| during nearly each Pleistocene interglacial| thermophile Central Asian freshwater mollusks migrated to West Siberia. Hence| during large warming periods| Central Asia and Western Kazakhstan had developed drainage networks and were characterized by a humid climate. The hypsometry of warm Kazantsevian alluvium indicates that the river network evolved toward higher altitudes after the rise of the sea level associated with global warming and thawing of unstable ice sheets. Warming| along with greater humidity| led to higher stand of groundwaters and swamping of continental low plains. In the Holocene| despite some variability in the duration of alternating warm and cold periods| they show distinct recurrence at a periodicity of about 500 years. The latest cold period (Small Ice Age) lasted from the middle of the 15th to the end of the 19th century| when the next natural warming started. The thermal parameters of this warm period are close to those in the early Middle Age| and its expected duration is about 500 years. 5261,2000,4,3,Environmental comparison metrics for life cycle impact assessment and process design,Metrics (potentials| potency factors| equivalency factors or characterization factors) are available to support the environmental comparison of alternatives in application domains like process design and product life-cycle assessment (LCA). These metrics typically provide relative insights into the implicit concern associated with chemicals| emissions and resource consumption in the context of human health| ecological health and resource depletion. The approaches used to derive the metrics range in their Site-specificity| complexity| comprehensiveness| sophistication and uncertainty. It is therefore often necessary to consider the use of more than one approach within the context of a given impact category to help support a decision. In this paper we outline some of the strengths and weaknesses of available approaches in the commonly considered categories of global warming| stratospheric ozone depletion| tropospheric ozone (smog) creation| eutrophication/nutrification| acidification| toxicological impacts and resource depletion. 3113,2000,2,4,Environmental controls on growth of the massive coral Porites,Annual density banding provided growth characteristics for 245 similar-sized| massive colonies of Porites from similar locations on 29 reefs from across the length and breadth of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR)| Australia. Values obtained were density| extension rate| and calcification rate. Tissue thickness| the depth to which skeletons were occupied by tissue at the time of collection| was also measured. Extension rate| calcification rate| and tissue thickness were significantly greater at the top of colonies than at the sides. Extension rate and calcification rate decreased from north to south along the GBR (latitudinal range of similar to 9 degrees) and were significantly and directly related to annual average sea surface temperature (SST; range similar to 25-27 degrees C). For each 1 degrees C rise in SST| average annual calcification increased by 0.39 g cm(-2) year(-1) and average annual extension increased by 3.1 mm year(-1) (c.f. average values of 1.63 g cm(-2) year(-1) and 12.9 mm year(-1)| respectively). Density was inversely correlated with extension rate and increased with distance offshore. Data for massive Porites colonies from the GBR were extended though 20 degrees of latitude and an average annual SST range of 23-29 degrees C using published data for the Hawaiian Archipelago (Grigg| R.W.| 1981. Coral reef development at high latitudes in Hawaii. Proc. 4th Int. Coral Reef Symp.| Manila| Vol. 1| pp. 687-693; Grigg| R.W.| 1997. Paleoceanography of coral reefs in the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain - revisited. Coral Reefs 16| S33-S38) and Phuket| Thailand (Scoffin. T.P.| Tudhope. A.W.| Brown. B.E.| Chansang. H.| Cheeney. R.F.| 1992. Patterns and possible environmental controls of skeletogenesis of Porites lutea| South Thailand. Coral Reefs 11| 1-11). The response of calcification rate to temperature remained linear. Variation in annual average SST accounted for 84% of the variance. For each 1 degrees C rise in SST| average annual calcification increased by 0.33 g cm(-2) year(-1) and average annual extension increased by 3.1 mm year(-1) (c.f. average values of 1.50 g cm(-2) year(-1) and 11.6 mm year(-1)| respectively). The sensitivity of calcification rate in Porites to SST| combined with observed 20th Century increases in SSTs| suggests that calcification rates may have already significantly increased along the GBR in response to global climate change. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3149,2000,4,3,Estimating disease risk at the whole plant level with General Circulation Models,General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been developed to assess the impacts of potential global climate change. However| these models do not provide specific weather information at the whole-plant level and thus provide only very gross estimates of conditions that affect plant and disease development. Also| climatic change may increase the frequency of extreme events that influence plant production more than changes in daily or monthly averages. One solution is a simulation approach that can scale weather information from the global down to the plant scale. Over the last 4 years| we have been developing methods to hierarchically define current and forecast weather conditions down to the whole-plant level based on nested high-resolution atmospheric (mesoscale) numerical models. Two hierarchical mesoscale model approaches were tested to downscale weather data in a vineyard. The first| known as the Localized Mesoscale Forecast System (LMFS) uses surface databases to 'localize' mesoscale output. The second| known as the Canopy-Mesoscale Forecast System (CMFS)| uses a boundary layer model to downscale mesoscale output. To illustrate the utility of this approach we focused on surface wetness duration (SWD)| a variable with high spatial and temporal variability. SWD is also a critical variable for prediction of plant disease. Simulations of SWD with on-site input data were compared to those derived from the mesoscale models and to on-site sensors. Forecasts of atmospheric variables by the two systems were compared to on-site observations. Success in this effort leads us to extend this method to GCMs where factors such as temperature| rainfall| relative humidity| and surface wetness can be estimated within plant and crop canopies. We explore the implications of this work on evaluating the assessment of climate change on the risk of plant disease development. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5160,2000,2,4,Estimating species-based community integrity under global warming| with special reference to the western Mediterranean region,Climate-based estimates of the fitness of the main structural elements of several western Mediterranean plant communities were used to estimate potential community integrity and its consequent vulnerability under a global-change scenario involving warming but no net drying. Results for a simple Quercus ilex community suggest expansion northward and inland under warming but with significant loss of area currently covered by the community. The data for estimating such changes in potential community integrity and areal coverage can be readily obtained from climatic envelope models. Mapping can be done by interpolation or by pixel-based GIS methods. 5380,2000,3,3,Estimation of methane emission from a deep-water rice field using Landsat TM and NOAA AVHRR: a case study of Bangkok Plain,A rapid increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) aggravates global warming of the Earth's atmosphere. It is necessary to monitor the emission rate as well as emission quantity of methane as a major component of GHGs. The objective of this study is to develop mathematical models for the estimation of methane emission from a deep-water rice field| using information extracted from satellite images. The methodology proposal in the study consists of two models: firstly| the true ground data of the monthly biomass of rice and average methane emission rate were analysed to set up the methane emission rate model; secondly. the biomass of rice and Various reflectances of the wavelength obtained from satellite images were investigated. It has been found that Landsat TM band 3| band 4| band 5| band 7 and the normal differential vegetation index as well as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration AVHRR band I. band 7 and NDVI are well related to the biomass of rice. which can be used to estimate the biomass of rice| the so-called remote sensing (RS) biomass model. Finally the estimation of methane emission can be manipulated by using the methane emission rate model coupled with the RS biomass model based on data from satellite imageries. Comparison between estimated methane emission from satellite images and experimental methane emission data measured at the Prachinburi Rice Research Center reveals that the methodology proposed can be used to estimate methane emission from a deep-water rice field with satisfactory accuracy| particularly during the reproductive stage of rice and maturation. 5290,2000,2,4,Estimation on the response of glaciers in China to the global warming in the 21st century,Glaciers in China can be categorized into 3 types| i.e. the maritime (temperate) type| sub-continental (sub-polar) type and extreme continental (polar) type| which take 22%| 46% and 32% of the total existing glacier area (59 406 km(2)) respectively| Researches indicate that glaciers of the three types show different response patterns to the global warming. Since the Max;ima of the Little Ice Age (the 17th century)| air temperature has risen at a magnitude of 1.3 degrees C on average and the glacier area decreased corresponds to 20% of the present: total glacier area in western China. II: is estimated that air temperature rise in the 2030s| 2070s and 2100s will be of the order of 0.41.2| 1.2-2.7 and 2.1-4.0 K in western China. With these scenarios| glaciers in China will suffer from further shrinkage by 12%| 28% and 45% by the 2030s| 2070s and 2100s. The uncertainties may account for 30%-67% in 2100 in China. 5313,2000,3,4,Evaluation of C(4)F(8)O as an alternative plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition chamber clean chemistry,The perfluorinated ether| C(4)F(8)O| has been investigated as an alternative to C(2)F(6) and C(3)F(8) to reduce global warming emissions from plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) chamber cleaning processes. A designed experiment was completed with C(4)F(8)O evaluating the effect of gas flow rate| oxygen dilution ratio| and chamber pressure on chamber clean time and global warming emissions. Analysis was completed using response surface methodology and neural network modeling. The results were compared to chamber clean times and emissions from typical C(2)F(6) and C(3)F(8) processes released for the reactor| a Novellus Concept One 200 dielectric PECVD tool. Following the designed experiment| additional data were gathered to examine the effect of radio frequency power and further variations in the other three variables on the process. Results indicate that when compared to C(2)F(6) and C(3)F(8) processes| shorter chamber clean times in combination with a significant reduction in global warming emissions are possible using the C(4)F(8)O chemistry. (C) 2000 The Electrochemical Society. S0013-4651(99)06-011-5. All rights reserved. 5310,2000,3,2,Evaluation of CO2 emissions in the life cycle of tokamak fusion power reactors,Global warming is one of the most serious problems which human beings are currently facing. Carbon dioxide (CO2) from power plants is considered one of the major causes of global warming. In the present study| CO2 emissions from tokamak fusion power plants are compared with those from present power generating technologies. Plasma parameters are calculated by a systems code that couples the ITER physics| toroidal field coil shape and cost calculation. CO2 emissions from construction and operation are evaluated by multiplying component volume by the CO2 emission intensities of the component materials. The reactor building| balance of plant| etc.| are scaled from the ITER reference power reactor ('ITER-like') by use of the Generomak model. The most important finding is that CO2 emissions from fusion reactors are less than those from photovoltaic systems and less than double those from fission reactors. The other findings are that: (i) Most CO2 emissions from fusion reactors are from materials. (ii) CO2 emissions from reactor construction account for almost 60-70% of the total| with the rest coming from reactor operation. (iii) The reversed shear reactor can reduce CO2 emissions by half compared with the ITER-like reactor. It is concluded that tokamak fusion reactors are excellent for their low CO2 emission intensity| and that they can be one of the effective energy supply technologies to solve global warming. 5257,2000,4,3,Evaluation of ocean and climate models using present-day observations and forcing,The most common method used to evaluate climate models involves spinning them up under perpetual present-day forcing find comparing the model results with present-day observations. This approach clearly ignores any potential long-term memory of the model ocean to past climatic conditions. Here we examine the validity of this approach through the 6000-year integration of a coupled atmosphere-ocen-sea-ice model. The coupled model is initially spun-up| with atmospheric CO2 concentrations and orbital parameters applicable for 6KBP. The model is then integrated forward in time to 2100. Results from this transient coupled model simulation are compared with the results from two additional simulations| in which the model is spun up with perpetual 1850 (preindustrial) and 1998 (present-day) atmospheric CO2 concentrations and orbital parameters. This comparison leads to substantial differences between the equilibrium climatologies and the transient simulation| even at 1850 tin weakly ventilated regions)| prior to any significant changes in atmospheric CO2. When compared to the present-day equilibrium climatology| differences fire very large: the global mean surface air and sea surface temperatures are similar to0.5 degreesC and similar to0.4 degreesC colder respectively deep ocean temperatures are substantially cooler Southern Hemisphere sea-ice cover is 38% larger| and the North Atlantic conveyor 16% weaker in the transient case. These differences are due to the long timescale memory of the deep ocean to climatic conditions which prevailed throghout the late Holocene| as well as to its large thermal inertia. It is also demonstrated that a 'cold start' global warming simulation tone that starts from a 1998 equilibrium climatology) underestimates the global temperature increase at 2100 by similar to 10%. Our results question the accuracy of current techniques for climate model evaluation find underline the importance of using using paleoclimatic simulations in parallel with present-day simulations in this evaluation process. 5242,2000,3,3,Evaluation of pentafluoroethane and 1|1-diffuoroethane for a dielectric etch application in an inductively coupled plasma etch tool,In this work| a combination of two hydrofluorocarbon compounds| pentafluoroethane (FC-125| C2HF5) and 1|1-difluoroethane (FC-152a| CF2H-CH3)| was evaluated as a potential replacement for perfluorocompounds in dielectric etch applications. A high aspect ratio oxide via etch was used as the test vehicle for this study| which was conducted in a commercial inductively coupled high density plasma etch tool. Both process and emissions data were collected and compared to those provided by a process utilizing a standard perfluorinated etch chemistry (C2F6). Global warming (CF4| C2F6| CHF3) and hygroscopic gas (HF| SiF4) emissions were characterized using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. FC-125/FC-152a was found to produce significant reductions in global warming emissions| on the order of 68 to 76% relative to the reference process. Although etch stopping| caused by a high degree of polymer deposition inside the etched features| was observed| process data otherwise appeared promising for an initial study| with good resist selectivity and etch rates being achieved. 5324,2000,2,4,Evidence for a link between climate and northern wetland methane emissions,Wetlands are an important source of atmospheric methane (CH4)| but the strength of this source and its sensitivity to potential changes in climate are still uncertain. In this study| continuous measurements from 1990 to 1998 of atmospheric CH| from the Canadian observational sites at Fraserdale (49 degrees 53'N 81 degrees 34'W) and Alert (82 degrees 27'N 62 degrees 31'W) are used to estimate CH| emissions from the Hudson Bay Lowland (HBL)| a 320|000 km(2) semicontinuous wetland region in central Canada. The HBL comprises similar to 10% of the total area of northern wetlands. A conceptually simple approach was used to calculate the methane emission flux using the CH4 concentration difference between Alert and Fraserdale| the residence time of the air mass over the HBL| and the mixing height of the convective boundary layer. Emission rates estimated using this approach for 1990 compare well with empirical aircraft and tower flux measurements made within the HBL during the same time period| thus indicating that the methodology used is reasonable. Annual CH4 emission rates range from 0.23 to 0.50 Tg CH4 yr(-1) and are much lower than many empirical flux measurements observed at other northern wetland sites. A seasonal temperature sensitivity with a Q(10) of about 4 was found. Moreover| the observed interannual variations in emissions are well correlated to variations in annual air temperatures corresponding to a sensitivity of Q(10) approximate to 7. That is| a 10 degrees C change in annual temperature would result in a sevenfold change in wetland emissions which is much larger than Q(10) values used in current global CH4 models (typically Q(10) approximate to 1.5). Our findings suggest that northern wetland emissions are probably overestimated to date but may increase significantly due to predicted global warming. 5283,2000,2,4,Evidence that decomposition rates of organic carbon in mineral soil do not vary with temperature,It has been suggested that increases in temperature can accelerate the decomposition of organic carbon contained in forest mineral soil (C-s)| and| therefore| that global warming should increase the release of soil organic carbon to the atmosphere(1-6). These predictions assume| however| that decay constants can be accurately derived from short-term laboratory incubations of soil or that in situ incubations of fresh litter accurately represent the temperature sensitivity of C-s decomposition. But our limited understanding of the biophysical factors that control C-s decomposition rates| and observations of only minor increases in C-s decomposition rate with temperature in longer-term forest soil heating experiments(7-12) and in latitudinal comparisons of C-s decomposition rates(13-15) bring these predictions into question. Here we have compiled C-s decomposition data from 82 sites on five continents. We found that C-s decomposition rates were remarkably constant across a global-scale gradient in mean annual temperature. These data suggest that C-s decomposition rates for forest soils are not controlled by temperature limitations to microbial activity| and that increased temperature alone will not stimulate the decomposition of forest-derived carbon in mineral soil. 5141,2000,2,2,External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings,A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed significantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model successfully simulates global mean and Large-scale Land temperature variations| indicating that the climate response on these scales is strongly influenced by external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year Land temperature variations are due to changes in external forcings| Anthropogenic global warming under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a rate similar to that observed in recent decades. 5318,2000,2,4,Forecasting the changes in lake water quality in response to climate changes| using past relationships between meteorological conditions and water quality,In order to forecast the effects of global warming on the water environment| the relationship between meteorological conditions and lake water quality was investigated statistically using 17 years of monitoring data obtained from a shallow eutrophic lake| Lake Kasumigaura. The usefulness of the DPY (difference from the previous year) method was confirmed for removing the watershed change (e.g. land cover| population| etc.). From the analysis of the relationships between air temperature and water temperature on a monthly basis| the delay of time was seen to be negligible| but the gain was reduced due to the high frequency of change. As the amount of precipitation affected their relationship on a yearly basis| the slopes of 1.0-1.2 degrees C water temperature/degrees C air temperature were determined with the DPY method by excluding the combinations of the years having large difference in annual precipitation. The deterioration of lake water quality| such as increases in COD (chemical oxygen demand) and decreases in transparency| was quantitatively assessed as corresponding to an increase in air temperature. In addition| we found that higher precipitation led to high nitrogen concentrations on a monthly basis| as well as on a yearly basis| probably induced by both the runoff of soilwater having high concentrations and the lowering of residence times of lake water. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 5312,2000,2,3,Forest growth and species distribution in a changing climate,Climate change has many potential effects on plants| some detrimental to growth| others beneficial. Increasing CO2 concentration can increase photosynthetic rates| with the greatest increases likely to be in Cg plants growing in warm dry conditions. Increasing temperature directly affects plant growth through effects on photosynthetic and respiration rates. However| plants have a considerable ability to adapt to changing conditions and can tolerate extremely high temperatures| provided that adequate water is available. Increasing temperature may increase vapor pressure deficits of the air| and thereby increase transpiration rates from most plant canopies. Effects are likely to vary among plant communities| with forests generally experiencing greater increases in transpiration rates than|grasslands. These increases in transpiration are likely to be reduced by stomatal closure in response to increasing CO2 concentration. In many areas| precipitation will probably increase with global warming; however| these increases may be insufficient to meet the increased transpirational demand by plant canopies. Increasing temperature is likely to increase soil organic matter decomposition rates so that nutrients may be more readily mineralized and made available to plants. In highly fertile systems| this could lead to nutrient losses through leaching. For different combinations of increases in temperature and CO2 concentration| and for systems primarily affected by water or nutrient limitations| different overall effects on plant productivity can be expected. Responses will be negative in some circumstances and positive in others| but on the whole| catastrophic changes to forest growth seem unlikely under most conditions. In contrast| ecological consequences of climate change are potentially more serious. The distribution of many species tends to be limited to a narrow range of environmental conditions. Climate conditions over much of a species' current natural range may therefore become unsuitable| leading to significant decline of forests or of particular species within forests. 5278,2000,3,4,Formation of CO2 hydrate in the presence of montmorillonite,Since direct disposal of CO2 in the ocean is a highly potential sequestration option| the process of oceanic disposal of CO2 has attracted much attention as an effective technology that can declerate global-warming. When CO2 is discharged in deep sea region subject to high pressure and low temperature| CO2 hydrate can be formed easily. For the design pur pose of the CO2 disposal process| the formation rate of the CO2 hydrate is required. Furthermore| it is well known that natural gas is often found at off-shore| buried under oceanic sediments. It should be necessary| therefore| to understand the interaction between the gas hydrate and the solid materials in the deep sea bed. The purpose of this paper is to investigate experimentaly the effect of clay materials in deep sea bed on rate of formation of CO2 hydrate. Since montmorillonites are the main components of the clay materials| the authors used two kinds of montmorillonites| Na- and Ca-montmorillonite. The Na-montmorillonite is hydrophillic| while the Ca-montmorillonite is hydrophobic. The rate of formation of the hydrate was determined from measurements of rate of consumption of CO2. During the process of formation of hydrate| both temperature and pressure in the reactor deviate from the initially setted values. The authors| therefore| studied the relation between the rate of formation of hydrate at an initial stage and the content of the montmorillonite. It was found that the initial rate of formation of hydrate drops as the content of Na-montmorillonite increases. On the other hand| the effect of the Ca-montmorillonite was not so significant.
5205,2000,2,4,Fragile transmission cycles of tick-borne encephalitis virus may be disrupted by predicted climate change,Repeated predictions that vector-borne disease prevalence will increase with global warming are usually based on univariate models. To accommodate the full range of constraints| the present-day distribution of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEv) was matched statistically to current climatic variables| to provide a multivariate description of present-day areas of disease risk. This was then applied to outputs of a general circulation model that predicts how climatic variables may change in the future| and future distributions of TBEv were predicted for them. The expected summer rise in temperature and decrease in moisture appears to drive the distribution of TBEv into higher-latitude and higher-altitude regions progressively through the 2020s| 2050s and 2080s. The final toe-hold in the 2080s may be confined to a small part of Scandinavia| including new foci in southern Finland. The reason for this apparent contraction of the range of TBEv is that its transmission cycles depend on a particular pattern of tick seasonal dynamics| which may be disrupted by climate change. The observed marked increase in incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in most parts of Europe since 1993 may be due to non-biological causes| such as political and sociological changes. 5203,2000,2,4,Frequency and characteristics of severe storms in the Urals and their influence on the development| structure and management of the boreal forests,After an unusual number of storms in the Urals in the early 1990s and with the global warming over the past 100 years| there were fears of increasing storm frequency in this region. This study investigates meteorological data| aspects of windthrow and the beginnings of reforestation after windthrow under different silvicultural treatments. The meteorological data were collected from a region covering an area of over 20 million ha of the Urals to the west and to the east. Storm frequency was analysed for 1946-1996 and windthrow events for 1965-1996| according to the availability of data. Regeneration experiments were begun on two experimental plots of 20 and 12 ha| respectively. Each was divided into three sub-plots| one being left untouched| one roughly logged and the last roughly logged and then replanted. Mean temperatures in the Urals showed a rise during the last more than 100 years| indeed| but neither the annual number of storms nor their mean wind speed increased. Only a few forest enterprises suffered windthrow on more than 1% of their total area. Most of the windthrown trees were of medium height and diameter. With two exceptions none of the storms greatly altered the structure of the forests. With over 3700 trees taller than 20 cm and up to 11 species| the forests showed great diversity. Neither windthrow| nor logging and clearing diminished the diversity| but all reduced the abundance of most of the species. These forests| left to regenerate naturally for some decades after clear-cutting| show a much higher number of species and individual trees than intensively managed conifer forests in the Swiss Alps. Therefore| it is recommended that natural development processes be more often integrated into conventional forest management methods. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5155,2000,2,4,Frequent non-storm washover of barrier islands| Pacific coast of Colombia,Barrier islands of the Pacific coast of Colombia repeatedly experience severe washover even when breaking waves in the eastern Pacific are low and onshore winds are calm. On the barrier island of El Choncho| recent non-storm washover events have breached a new inlet| caused rapid beach retreat| destroyed a shoreline protection structure| and flooded a small village of indigenous people so Frequently that it had to be relocated. Barrier washover may be augmented by lowered land elevations associated with earthquake-induced subsidence or long-term beach retreat| but temporally it is most closely associated with a 20 to 30 cm regional increase in sea level caused by El Nino. The contradiction of a tranquil tropical island scene simultaneously disturbed by hostile turbulent washover may be unique at present| but it exemplifies how coastal plains throughout the world would be affected if sea level were to rise rapidly as a result of global warming. 3152,2000,4,4,Fuzzy modeling approach for integrated assessments using cultural theory,It has already been noted that predicting societal responses accurately requires the use of a formal model such as cultural theory. A basic belief of cultural theory is that all societies and their underlying worldviews| irrespective of time or place| must be more or less hierarchic| more or less individualistic| more or less egalitarian| or more or less fatalistic. This approach has a potential for cross-temporal and spatial comparisons that makes it a particularly attractive instrument for a study of the human dimensions of global climate change. However| a significant difficulty in the previous attempts for utilizing cultural theory in integrated assessment models (IAMs) has been the inexactness or uncertainty inherent in both IAMs and cultural theory. In this paper we introduce a fuzzy-based modeling approach that makes use of cultural theory in integrated assessment approach to provide a mechanism for understanding the reaction of a populace to environmental policy decisions. 5282,2000,3,2,Game theoretic analysis for carbon emission permits trading among multiple world regions with an optimizing global energy model,Carbon emissions which would cause global warming were agreed to be constrained at COP3 in Kyoto. In addition| carbon emission permits trading was also approved to be introduced. The emission permits trading is expected to achieve efficient carbon emission reduction| equalizing the marginal costs of the emission reduction for the participating countries. Zn other words| the permits trading allows participants to reduce emissions where it is least expensive to do so. However| the inadequate introduction of the trading systems may impose an unfairly greater burden on settle countries| and therefore careful evaluation of the system would be indispensable for its implementation. In this paper we attempt to analyze emission permits trading| using the theory of cooperative games with a global energy model of optimization type. We assume that seven world regions as players participate in the permits trading system under the condition of the emission reduction target presented at COP3 and so on| and show the nucleolus of the grand coalition games| and the computational results of primary energy supplies and CO2 shadow prices. The insights of this research indicate that in order to stabilize the grand coalition| a noticeable amount of additional transfer of:money would be needed besides the payments associated with the emission permits transactions. (C) 2000 Scripts Technica. 5331,2000,2,4,Gas exchange and water relations of two Rocky Mountain shrub species exposed to a climate change manipulation,Gas exchange and water relations responses to warming were compared for two shrub species| Artemisia tridentata spp. vaseyana (Asteraceae)| a widely distributed evergreen species of the Great Basin and the western slope of the Rocky Mountains| and Pentaphylloides floribunda (Rosaceae)| a deciduous shrub limited in distribution to moist| high-elevation meadows. Plants were exposed to an in situ infrared (IR) climate change manipulation at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory| near Crested Butte| CO. Measurements of gas exchange and water relations were made on the two species in July and August| 1993 from plants growing in situ in infrared-heated and control plots. Carbon dioxide uptake| water loss| leaf temperature| water use efficiency| and water potential were compared to test the hypothesis that leaf and soil responses to IR will cause leaf level changes in photosynthesis. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake and water use efficiency increased for A. tridentata (2.9 vs. 1.9 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) and 1.2 vs. 0.7 mmol C/mol H2O) in the heated plots compared to the controls| while water potential was significantly lower in the heated plots (-1.1 vs. -0.5 MPa). The heating treatment decreased rates of photosynthesis for P. floribunda| but not significantly so. For A. tridentata| the results are consistent with the community-level changes observed with heating. Taken together| the evidence suggests that global warming is likely to result in increasing dominance of A. tridentata in subalpine meadow habitat now dominated by forbs. 3126,2000,2,4,Gas exchange| leaf nitrogen| and growth efficiency of Populus tremuloides in a CO(2)-enriched atmosphere,Predicting forest responses to rising atmospheric CO(2) will require an understanding of key feedbacks in the cycling of carbon and nitrogen between plants and soil microorganisms| We conducted a study for 2.5 growing seasons with Populus tremuloides grown under experimental atmospheric CO(2) and soil-N-availability treatments. Our objective was to integrate the combined influence of atmospheric CO(2) and soil-N availability on the flow of C and N in the plant-soil system and to relate these processes to the performance of this widespread and economically important tree species. Here we consider treatment effects on photosynthesis and canopy development and the efficiency with which this productive capacity is translated into aboveground| harvestable yield. We grew six P| tremuloides genotypes at ambient (35 Pa) or elevated (70 Pa) CO(2) and in soil of low or high N mineralization rate at the University of Michigan Biological Station| Pellston| Michigan| USA (45 degrees 35' N| 84 degrees 42' W). In the second year of growth| net CO(2) assimilation rate was significantly higher in elevated-CO(2) compared to ambient-CO(2) plants in both soil-N treatments| and we found little evidence for photosynthetic acclimation to high CO(2). In the third year| however| elevated-CO(2) plants in low-N soil had reduced photosynthetic capacity compared to ambient-CO(2)| low-N plants| Plants in high-N sail showed the opposite response| with elevated-CO(2) plants having higher photosynthetic capacity than ambient-CO(2) plants. Net CO(2) assimilation rate was linearly related to leaf N concentration (log:log scale)| with identical slopes but different intercepts in the two CO(2) treatments| indicating differences in photosynthetic N-use efficiency| Elevated CO(2) increased tissue dark respiration in high-N soil (+22%) but had no significant effect in low-N soil(+9%). There were no CO(2) effects on stomatal conductance. At the final harvest| stem biomass and total leaf area increased significantly due to CO(2) enrichment in high-N but not in low-N soil. Treatment effects on wood production were largely attributable to changes in leaf area| with no significant effects on growth efficiency| We conclude that harvest intervals for P. tremuloides on fertile sites will shorten with rising atmospheric CO(2)| but that tree size at canopy closure may be unaffected. 3131,2000,4,4,Gas hydrate and humans,The potential effects of naturally occurring gas hydrate on humans are not understood with certainty| but enough information has been acquired over the past 30 years to make preliminary assessments possible. Three major issues are gas hydrate as (1) a potential energy resource| (2) a factor in global climate change| and (3) a submarine geohazard| The methane content is estimated to be between 10(15) to 10(17) m(3) at STP and the worldwide distribution in outer continental margins of oceans and in polar regions are significant features of gas hydrate. However| its immediate development as an energy resource is not likely because there are various geological constraints and difficult technological problems that must be solved before economic recovery of methane from hydrate can be achieved. The role of gas hydrate in global climate change is uncertain. For hydrate methane to be an effective greenhouse gas| it must reach the atmosphere| Yet there are many obstacles to the transfer of methane from hydrate to the atmosphere. Rates of gas hydrate dissociation and the integrated rates of release and destruction of the methane in the geo/hydro/atmosphere are not adequately understood. Gas hydrate as a submarine geohazard| however| is of immediate and increasing importance to humans as our industrial society moves to exploit seabed resources at ever-greater depths in the waters of our coastal oceans. Human activities and installations in regions of gas-hydrate occurrence must take into account the presence of gas hydrate and deal with the consequences of its presence. 3132,2000,2,2,Gas hydrates and global climate change,The gas hydrate phenomenon intersects with societal concerns about global climate change in at least two distinct ways: the possibility of destruction of gas hydrates exposed on or near the sea floor by global warming; and the possibility of avoiding this and other problems by taking advantage of CO2 hydrate formation during active disposal of fossil fuel CO2 in the deep ocean. This extraordinary picture of contemporary discussion of the possible destruction by mankind of one hydrate| and the creation of another| both in vast quantities in the ocean| is a tribute to the unusual nature and power of this chemical cage. 5306,2000,2,4,Genetic variation and spatial structure in sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) and implications for predicted global-scale environmental change,Current ecosystem model predictions concerning the effects of global temperature increase on forest responses do not account for factors influencing long-term evolutionary dynamics of natural populations. Population structure and genetic variability may represent important factors in a species' ability to adapt to global-scale environmental change without experiencing major alterations in current range limits. Genetic variation and structure in sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) were examined across three regions| between two stands within regions| and among four to five open-pollinated families within stands (total N = 547 genotypes) using 58 randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers. Differences within open-pollinated families account for the largest portion of the total variation (29%)| while differences among regions represent less than 2% of the total variation. Genetic diversity| as indicated by estimates of percent polymorphic loci| expected heterozygosity| fixation coefficients| and genetic distance| is greatest in the southern region| which consists of populations with the maximum potential risk due to climate change effects. The high level of genetic similarity (greater than 90%) among some genotypes suggests that gene flow is occurring among regions| stands| and families. High levels of genetic variation among families indicate that vegetational models designed to predict species' response to global-scale environmental change may need to consider the degree and hierarchical structure of genetic variation when making large-scale inferences. 5170,2000,2,4,Glacier evolution in the tropical Andes during the last decades of the 20th century: Chacaltaya| Bolivia| and Antizana| Ecuador,Mass balance has been continuously monitored on Chacaltaya Glacier (16 degreesS| Cordillera Real| Bolivia) since 1991| and on the Antizana Glacier 15 (0 degrees| Ecuador) since 1995. In ablation areas| mass balance has been surveyed on a monthly scale| providing interesting details about the seasonal pattern in 2 contrasting tropical environments. Intermittent information about ice recession exists in both regions for the last 4 decades. The data point to a clear acceleration in glacier decline during this decade; ablation rates have been 3-5 times higher than during the former decades. Fluctuations measured before on 3 glaciers in northern Peru| allow the assumption that the rate at which the glaciers retreated in the tropical Andes increased in the late 1970s. The present situation is particularly dramatic for the small-sized glaciers (< 1 km(2)) and many such as Chacaltaya| could disappear in the next 10 years. As evidenced by the data collected| ablation increases significantly during the warm phases of ENSO (El Nino) and decreases during the cold phases (La Nina). Warm events becoming more frequent and intense since the late 1970s| it can be assumed that they have played an important role in the recent glacier decline in the central Andes| together with the global warming. 3062,2000,2,4,Global climate change and introduced species in United States forests,Introduced species already cause billions of dollars of damage annually in United States forests| plus massive ecological damage whose economic value has often not been estimated. The variety of impacts is staggering and includes herbivory| predation| disease| parasitism| competition| habitat destruction| hybridization| and changed disturbance regimes and nutrient cycles. How global climate change will affect these impacts has scarcely been assessed. Range changes of existing introduced species will be prominent| as many species' biogeographic ranges are set primarily by climate. Similarly| some species that might otherwise not have survived will be able to establish populations in a changed climate. It is more difficult to predict what the impacts of the introduced species will be. What is most needed are studies of the combined impacts of changing climate| CO2 and nutrients. Certain aspects of the biology of introduced species| such as evolution and autonomous dispersal| greatly complicate the prediction of spread and impact of introduced species. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3142,2000,5,4,Global climate change and North American mammalian evolution,We compare refined data sets for Atlantic benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope ratios and for North American mammalian diversity| faunal turnover| and body mass distributions. Each data set spans the late Paleocene through Pleistocene and has temporal resolution of 1.0 m.y.; the mammal data are restricted to western North America. We use the isotope data to compute five separate time series: oxygen isotope ratios at the midpoint of each 1.0-m.y. bin; changes in these ratios across bins; absolute values of these changes (= isotopic volatility); standard deviations of multiple isotope measurements within each bin; and standard deviations that have been detrended and corrected for serial correlation. For the mammals| we compute 12 different variables: standing diversity at the start of each bin; per-lineage origination and extinction rates; total turnover; net diversification; the absolute value of net diversification (= diversification volatility); change in proportional representation of major orders| as measured by a simple index and by a G-slatistic; and the mean| standard deviation| skewness| and kurtosis of body mass. Simple and liberal statistical analyses fail to show any consistent relationship between any two isotope and mammalian time series| other than some unavoidable correlations between a few untransformed| highly autocorrelated time series like the raw isotope and mean body mass curves. Standard methods of detrending and differencing remove these correlations. Some of the major climate shifts indicated by oxygen isotope records do correspond to major ecological and evolutionary transitions in the mammalian biota| but the nature of these correspondences is unpredictable| and several other such transitions occur at times of relatively little global climate change. We conclude that given currently available climate records| we cannot show that the impact of climate change on the broad patterns of mammalian evolution involves linear forcings; instead| we see only the relatively unpredictable effects of a few major events. Over the scale of the whole Cenozoic| intrinsic| biotic factors like logistic diversity dynamics and within-lineage evolutionary trends seem to be far more important. 3074,2000,3,4,Global climate change and the effect of conservation practices in US agriculture,The use of conservation practices by agriculture in the United States will enhance soil organic carbon and potentially increase carbon sequestration. This| in turn| will decrease the net emission of carbon dioxide. A number of studies exist that calibrate the contribution of various individual| site-specific conservation practices on changes in soil organic carbon. There is a general absence| however. of a comprehensive effort to measure objectively the contribution of these practices including conservation tillage| the Conservation Reserve Program| and conservation buffer strips to an change in soil organic carbon. This paper fills that void. After recounting the evolution of the use of the various conservation practices| it is estimated that organic carbon in the soil in 1998 in the United States attributable to these practices was about 12.2 million Mt. By 2008| there will be an increase of about 25%. Given that there is a significant potential for conservation practices to lead to an increase in carbon sequestration| there are a number of policy options that can be pursued. These include education and technical assistance| financial assistance| research and development| land retirement| and regulation and taxes. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 3057,2000,3,3,Global climate change and the effect of conservation practices in US agriculture,Increase in the use of conservation practices by agriculture in the United States will enhance soil organic carbon and potentially increase carbon sequestration. This| in turn| will decrease the net emission of carbon dioxide. A number of studies exist that calibrate the contribution of various individual| site-specific conservation practices on changes in soil organic carbon. There is a general absence| however| of a comprehensive effort to measure objectively the contribution of these practices including conservation tillage| the Conservation Reserve Program| and conservation buffer strips to an change in soil organic carbon. This paper fills that void. After recounting the evolution of the use of the various conservation practices| it is estimated that organic carbon in the soil in 1998 in the United States attributable to these practices was about 12.2 million metric tons. By 2008| there will be an increase of about 25%. Given that there is a significant potential for conservation practices| which could lead to an increase in carbon sequestration| there are a number of policy options that can be pursued. These include education and technical assistance| financial assistance| research and development| land retirement| and regulation and taxes. 3100,2000,4,4,Global climate change and the precautionary principle,The precautionary principle is promoted as a common sense approach that avoids unreasonable delays in taking action. A weak form of the precautionary principle| that action should not wait until all uncertainties are resolved| is indeed common sense and consistent with even the most elementary application of the methods of decision making under uncertainty to the climate change problem. The standard tools of decision analysis imply conclusions consistent with a weak precautionary principle of taking some action before all the evidence is in. Decision theory also reveals what the basis is for stronger recommendations from the precautionary principle| to the effect that action should be based on the most pessimistic possible interpretation of the future. This conclusion is only possible if prior beliefs are so pessimistic and so strong that they would outweigh any possible new scientific evidence. 3099,2000,3,3,Global climate change: Benefit-cost analysis vs. the precautionary principle,The precautionary principle appears to be directly applicable to the prospect that human activities will cause substantial changes to global climate. The magnitude and characteristics of the change in climate and its effects on human activities and unmanaged ecosystems are highly uncertain| potentially catastrophic| and nearly irreversible on human time scales. Nevertheless| the precautionary principle adds little to benefit-cost analysis for evaluating climate policies. Benefit-cost analysis can incorporate aversion to uncertainty about future outcomes| and also provides a method for balancing this concern against concern for uncertain near-term policy costs. The policies favored by setting constraints on future outcomes| such as atmospheric stabilization and tolerable windows| may be less precautionary than the policies favored by benefit-cost analysis| as benefit-cost analysis can more readily accommodate concerns for moderate as well as severe harms. Concerns about possible climate catastrophes can also be incorporated in benefit-cost analysis and| in any event| may have limited implicatioms for policy choice. 3090,2000,2,2,Global model of vegetation migration: incorporation of climatic variability,Climate change induced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expected to transform global distribution of terrestrial vegetation. The analysis of global vegetation distributions determined by earth's climates is usually based on biogeographical classifications. These classifications assume that flora in any location is predetermined by certain parameters of climate| and that change in these parameters will produce instant changes in plants composition. Application of the models employing biogeographical classifications to different scenarios of climate change is generally limited with the hypothesis of 'dynamic equilibrium': the rate of climate change should be comparable with the rate of vegetation response. The estimated rate of hypothesized global warming is now considered to be fast enough to fall outside these limits. Therefore| an alternative assumption that the forests will be extirpated| but will not migrate to the new territory within the time limits of CO| doubling| can be considered a better approximation of future vegetation dynamics. We propose a model to study the effect of native variability of input data on model prediction| portraying vegetation migration as a stochastic process. We included into analysis only variability of climate and assumed that the only process affected by changing climate variability is vegetation mortality (i.e. regional extirpation). Our simulations show that the probabilistic approach can significantly change the forecasts of global vegetation redistribution. The predicted by the model extirpation area for boreal forests is significantly less| than the area predicted by the equilibrium model without forest in-migration. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5151,2000,2,2,Global warming,What is the relationship between the warming of global climate and the frequency and intensity of extreme regional or local weather events| events that largely govern the perceived and realized impact of climate or climate change on society and environment? Are such events intrinsically more likely or more severe as climate warms? Can the occurrence of such events be used as evidence for a changing climate| or even a changing climate induced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations? These are questions that have been increasingly asked over the last few years as the public awareness of extreme weather events has increased| and their often dramatic impacts have been captured on video footage. Changes in climate and its temporal variability clearly have implications for the frequencies and characteristics of extreme weather events such as heatwaves| severe winter cold| drought and intense precipitation episodes. The prospect of climate change| at least partly induced by human activities| therefore raises concerns about the changing frequencies with which extreme weather events may occur in the future. Whilst the sensitivity of extreme events to a change in mean climate or its temporal variability has been recognized in principle for many years (e.g.| Mearns et al.| 1984; Wigley| 1985)| it is only quite recently that extensive analyses of changing extreme event frequencies using either observational climate data or model-based simulations of future climate have been conducted. For example| the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)| in their Second assessment report| concluded just four years ago that ‘. . . the evidence that extreme weather events have increased in a global sense through the twentieth century| is [limited because] data and analyses are poor and not comprehensive’ (Nicholls et al.| 1996: 173).
5275,2000,3,4,Global warming - facts| assessment| countermeasures,Global primary energy consumption amounts to 8.38 billion tonnes oil equivalent (OE) (1996) and is projected to increase by 1.3% per year for the industrialized countries and by up to 9.2% per year for the developing countries. Fossil energy's share was 7.541 billion tonnes OE in 1996 with rising tendency. The order of magnitude of proved reserves of fossil energy sources is 950 billion tonnes OE (1996)| and certain present probable and possible reserves will become proved ones in the years to come. Fossil energy will| therefore| remain the number one energy source until far into the next century. The use of fossil energy produced 23.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 1996 with oil and gas contributing about 60% to this figure. It is estimated that continued use of fossil energy will lead to an increase of the average global temperature by 1.0-3.5 degrees C in the coming 50-100 years. Though the forecasts of future CO2 emissions from fossil energy use as well as the magnitude of their influence on global warming are much disputed| the impact of CO2-emissions on global warming itself is widely admitted. There is much dissense on the climatic consequences of global warming. It cannot be ruled out| however| that these consequences may be detrimental to mankind. This has in a sense of a "no regret policy" triggered substantial activity worldwide to decrease emission of greenhouse gases| especially of CO2| and various attempts have been made to set binding limits for the emission of these gases. The harmonized worldwide implementation of CO2-reduction strategies is| however| far from being realized. OECD-countries have made substantial progress in applying these strategies. Nevertheless| the contribution of the industrialized countries to worldwide GO-emissions is still over-proportionally large. The cost of developing and applying CO2-reduction technologies are tremendous and prohibitive for most of the emerging economies. There is an obligation of the industrialized countries in their own interest to develop and make available these technologies wherever they are needed. The cost/efficiency ratio of CO2-reduction measures must be a decisive criterion for their application. There are serious obstacles| though| to reducing CO2-emissions while satisfying the energy needs of our world| e.g. lacking international harmonization| national needs and egoisms| rapid growth of world population and strongly increasing energy demand of emerging economies. In summing up| though an anthropogenic contribution to global warming cannot be proved for the time bring| it cannot be ruled out forever. Therefore| internationally harmonized measures for CO2-reduction have to be taken in the sense of a "no regret policy" to avert potential damage from mankind and| thus| contribute in this sense to a sustainable development with fossil energy. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5207,2000,2,4,Global warming and avian occupancy of hot deserts; a physiological and behavioral perspective,Avian adjustments to desert environments are characterized by an integration of behavior and physiology. These responses serve to maintain homeostasis and conserve vital resources such as water. The small size of birds confers a close coupling to the thermal environment and demands rapid adjustments to environmental challenges. Physiological responses to heat stress include hyperthermia| and increased evaporative cooling as environmental temperatures approach body temperature. Behaviorally| desert birds respond to heat stress by drastically reducing activity during the hottest parts of the day and selecting cool shaded microsites. This characteristic behavioral response presents a potential problem in the face of global warming. If birds totally forgo foraging during extremely hot periods| increased evaporative water loss rates due to higher environmental temperatures could lead to significant episodes of direct mortality for birds in these regions. A simple model is presented which integrates behavior and physiology to predict survival times based on dehydration tolerance| microsite selection and environmental temperature. 5185,2000,2,4,Global warming and terrestrial ecosystems: A conceptual framework for analysis,ECOSYSTEM RESPONSES TO GLOBAL WARMING WILL BE COMPLEX AND VARIED. ECOSYSTEM WARMING EXPERIMENTS HOLD GREAT POTENTIAL FOR PROVIDING INSIGHTS ON WAYS TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS WILL RESPOND TO UPCOMING DECADES OF CLIMATE CHANGE. DOCUMENTATION OF INITIAL CONDITIONS PROVIDES THE CONTEXT FOR UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING ECOSYSTEM RESPONSES.
5241,2000,4,3,Global warming and tropical land-use change: Greenhouse gas emissions from biomass burning| decomposition and soils in forest conversion| shifting cultivation and secondary vegetation,Tropical forest conversion| shifting cultivation and clearing of secondary vegetation make significant contributions to global emissions of greenhouse gases today| and have the potential for large additional emissions in future decades. Globally| an estimated 3.1x10(9) t of biomass carbon of these types is exposed to burning annually| of which 1.1x10(9) t is emitted to the atmosphere through combustion and 49x10(6) t is converted to charcoal (including 26-31x10(6) t C of black carbon). The amount of biomass exposed to burning includes aboveground remains that failed to burn or decompose from clearing in previous years| and therefore exceeds the 1.9x10(9) t of aboveground biomass carbon cleared on average each year. Above- and belowground carbon emitted annually through decomposition processes totals 2.1x10(9) t C. A total gross emission (including decomposition of unburned aboveground biomass and of belowground biomass) of 3.41x10(9) t C year(-)1 results from clearing primary (nonfallow) and secondary (fallow) vegetation in the tropics. Adjustment for trace gas emissions using IPCC Second Assessment Report 100-year integration global warming potentials makes this equivalent to 3.39x10(9) t of CO(2)-equivalent carbon under a low trace gas scenario and 3.83x10(9) t under a high trace gas scenario. Of these totals| 1.06x10(9) t (31%) is the result of biomass burning under the low trace gas scenario and 1.50x10(9) t (39%) under the high trace gas scenario. The net emissions from all clearing of natural vegetation and of secondary forests (including both biomass and soil fluxes) is 2.0x10(9) t C| equivalent to 2.0-2.4x10(9) t of CO(2)-equivalent carbon. Adding emissions of 0.4x10(9) t C from land-use category changes other than deforestation brings the total for land-use change (not considering uptake of intact forest| recurrent burning of savannas or fires in intact forests) to 2.4x10(9) t C| equivalent to 2.4-2.9x10(9) t of CO(2)-equivalent carbon. The total net emission of carbon from the tropical land uses considered here (2.4x10(9) t C year(-)1) calculated for the 1981-1990 period is 50% higher than the 1.6x10(9) t C year(-)1 value used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The inferred (= `missing') sink in the global carbon budget is larger than previously thought. However| about half of the additional source suggested here may be offset by a possible sink in uptake by Amazonian forests. Both alterations indicate that continued deforestation would produce greater impact on global carbon emissions. The total net emission of carbon calculated here indicates a major global warming impact from tropical land uses| equivalent to approximately 29% of the total anthropogenic emission from fossil fuels and land-use change. 5224,2000,4,3,Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario,A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate| But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs)| such as chlorofluorocarbons| CH4. and N2O| not by the products of fossil fuel burning| CO2 and aerosols| the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O-3 precursors were reduced in the future| the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions| this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming| reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However| assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties. 5323,2000,3,4,Global warming potential assessment for CF3OCF=CF2,We have examined CF3OCF = CF2 regarding its reactivity toward OH radical| its infrared spectroscopic properties| its atmospheric lifetime| and its radiative forcing. From these we then determined the Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for CF3OCF = CF2. The examination is completed using a combination of discharge flow coupled with mass spectrometer and resonance fluorescence (DF/MS/RF)| Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy| ab initio molecular orbital calculation| and atmospheric and radiative transfer modeling. Mass spectral evidence suggests that both HF and CF3OCFC(O)F are products from the reaction of CF3OCF = CF2 with OH. The Arrhenius expression for CF3OCF = CF2 + OH is determined to be k(1) = (6.41 +/- 0.82) x 10(-11) exp[(-868 +/- 40)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) in the temperature range of 253-348 K. The atmospheric lifetime of CF3OCF = CF2 is estimated to be less than 5 days due to the OH attack. The calculated vibrational frequencies using ab initio molecular orbital calculations are in good agreement with FTIR experimental observation for the CF3OCF = CF2 molecule. Both C-O and C-F stretching modes in the CF3OCF = CF2 contribute to prominent absorption in the atmospheric window region. The absolute adjusted radiative forcing at the tropopause due to an increase in the concentration of CF3OCF = CF2 by one part per billion by volume (ppbv) is calculated to be 0.041 W m(-2) ppbv(-1). The Global Warming Potential for CF3OCF = CF2 is evaluated to be 0.004 for 100-year time horizon. 5307,2000,3,2,Global warming potentials: 1. Climatic implications of emissions reductions,The use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to calculate 'equivalent' carbon dioxide emissions reductions in the climate change context is examined. We find that GWPs are accurate only for short time horizons. Over long time horizons their use implicitly leads to tradeoffs between near-term and long-term climate change. For one of the most policy-relevant cases| comparing reductions in methane and carbon dioxide| the long-term effect on climate of reducing methane emissions is relatively small| at variance with the common perception based on published GWP values. 5308,2000,4,4,Global warming potentials: 2. Accuracy,This paper exposes flaws in the mathematical structure of the Global Warming Potential (GWP) concept. These lead to errors when emissions changes in different greenhouse gases are compared. The most fundamental problem is that the unit impulse response functions from which GWPs| and many of their proposed alternatives| are constructed provide an incomplete representation of the relationship between emissions and radiative forcing. Additional errors occur when GWPs are used to compare finite-length emissions changes. 5172,2000,4,4,Global warming: Evidence from satellite observations,Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer| flown onboard sequential| sun-synchronous| polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites| indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study| we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help of the onboard warm-blackbody temperature| which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically-weighted global-mean temperature of the atmosphere| with a peak weight near the mid troposphere| warmed at the rate of 0.13+/-0.05 Kdecade(-1) during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite-deduced result. 3150,2000,3,4,Greenhouse gas emissions in Hong Kong,This study provides a quantitative review of the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)| the two most significant greenhouse gases (GHGs) in Hong Kong. Study indicated that CO2 accounts for 90% of the local GHG emissions in Hong Kong. Among the different typos of fuels coal is identified as the major source of CO2| which constitutes about 50% by fuel type. On the other hand| CH4| which mainly comes from waste decomposition| contributes to 5% of the total GHG emissions. Correlation study revealed that energy consumption and waste quantity were strongly correlated with population and gross domestic products (GDP)| implying that not much has been done in Hong Kong to re-mediate GHG emissions. Regression analysis concluded that supply side management (fuel switch) was more effective than demand side management (energy conservation) in mitigating CO2 emissions in Hong Kong. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5356,2000,3,2,Greenhouse gases and other airborne pollutants from household stoves in China: a database for emission factors,Emissions from household stoves| especially those using solid fuels. can contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories and have adverse health impacts. Few data are available on emissions from the numerous types of cookstoves used in developing countries. We have systematically measured emissions from 55 fuel/stove combinations in India and China| a large fraction of the combinations in use world-wide. A database was generated containing emission factors of direct and indirect GHGs and other airborne pollutants such as CO2| CO| CH4| TNMHC| N2O| SO2| NOx| TSP| etc. In this paper| we report on the 28 fuel/stove combinations tested in China. Since fuel and stove parameters were measured simultaneously along with the emissions| the database allows construction of complete carbon balances and analyses of the trade-off of emissions per unit fuel mass and emissions per delivered energy. Results from the analyses show that the total emissions per unit delivered energy were substantially greater from burning the solid fuels than from burning the liquid or gaseous fuels| due to lower thermal and combustion efficiencies for solid-fuel/stove combinations. For a given biomass fuel type| increasing overall stove efficiency tends to increase emissions of products of incomplete combustion. Biomass fuels are typically burned with substantial production of non-CO2 GHGs with greater radiative forcing| indicating that biomass fuels have the potential to produce net global warming commitments even when grown renewably. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5202,2000,3,4,Greenhouse gases in intensive agriculture: Contributions of individual gases to the radiative forcing of the atmosphere,Agriculture plays a major role in the global fluxes of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide| nitrous oxide| and methane. From 1991 to 1999| we measured gas fluxes and other sources of global warming potential (GWP) in cropped and nearby unmanaged ecosystems. Net GWP (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per square meter per year) ranged from 110 in our conventional tillage systems to -211 in early successional communities. None of the annual cropping systems provided net mitigation| although soil carbon accumulation in no-till systems came closest to mitigating all other sources of GWP. In all but one ecosystem| nitrous oxide production was the single greatest source of GWP. In the Late successional system| GWP was neutral because of significant methane oxidation. These results suggest additional opportunities for Lessening the GWP of agronomic systems. 5201,2000,2,4,Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study,Objectives To assess heat related mortalities in relation to climate within Europe. Design Observational population study. Setting North Finland| south Finland| Baden-Wurttemberg| Netherlands| London| north Italy| and Athens. Subjects People aged 65-74. Main outcome measures Mortalities at temperatures above| below and within each region's temperature band of minimum mortality. Results Mortality was lowest at 14.3-17.3 degrees C in north Finland but at 22.7-25.7 degrees C in Athens. Overall the 3 degrees C minimum mortality temperature bands were significantly higher in regions with higher than lower mean summer temperatures (P = 0.027). This was not due to regional differences in wind speeds| humidity| rain. As a result| regions with hot summers did not have significantly higher annual hear related mortality per million population than cold regions at temperatures above these bands. Mean annual heat related mortalities were 304 (95% confidence interval 126 to 482) in North Finland| 445 (59 to 831) in Athens| and 40 (13 to 68) in London. Cold related mortalities were 2457 (1130 to 3786)| 2533 (965 to 4101)| and 3129 (2319 to 3939) respectively. Conclusions Populations in Europe have adjusted successfully to mean summer temperatures ranging from 13.5 degrees C to 24.1 degrees C| and can be expected to adjust to global warming predicted for the next half century with little sustained increase in heat related mortality. Active measures to accelerate adjustment to hot weather could minimise temporary rises in heat related mortality| and measures to maintain protection against cold in winter could permit substantial reductions in overall mortality as temperatures rise.
5176,2000,3,3,High density plasma oxide etching using nitrogen trifluoride and acetylene,The use of nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) and acetylene (C2H2) in the presence of helium has been examined fur oxide etching in an inductively coupled| high density plasma etch tool. Oxide etch rates have been measured for blanket films and For patterned wafers with features of 0.6| 0.45| and 0.35 mum nominal critical dimension| while process performance has been assessed with cross-sectional scanning electron microscopy. Optical emission spectroscopy has been employed in situ to characterize the species present in the plasma| and quadrupole mass spectrometry has been used to analyze process affluent sampled between the chamber outlet and the turbo pump inlet. Polymer film deposited on the surface of the oxide layer has been studied with time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry. Global warming emissions for a range of process conditions have been quantified using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy| and are compared to emissions from more typical oxide etch processes on the same tool type. Results indicate that the NF3/C2H2 chemistry is capable of etching oxide anisotropically| while offering a significantly lower global warming impact than current oxide etch chemistries. (C) 2000 American Vacuum Society. [S0734-2101(00)00306-7]. 5250,2000,3,4,High photosynthetic productivity of green microalga Chlorella sorokiniana,The batch culture of a newly isolated strain of a green microalga| Chlorella sorokiniana| was carried out using a conical helical tubular photobioreactor. The isolate was capable of good growth at 40 degrees C under an airstream enriched with 10% CO2. The maximum photosynthetic productivity was 34.4 g of dry biomass/(m(2) of installation area . d) (12-h light/12-h dark cycle) when the cells were illuminated with an average photosynthetic photon flux density (photosynthetically active radiation ([PAR] 400-700 nm) simulating the outdoors in central Japan (0.980 mmol photons/[m(2).s]). This corresponded to a photosynthetic efficiency of 8.67% (PAR)| which was defined as the percent age of the light energy recovered as biomass (394 kJ/[reactor.d]) to the total light energy received (4545 kJ/[reactor.d]). A similarly high photosynthetic efficiency (8.12% [PAR]) was also attained in the combined presence of 10% CO2| 100 ppm of NO| and 25 ppm of SO2. Moreover| good photosynthetic productivity was also obtained under high temperature and high light intensity conditions (maximum temperature| 46.5 degrees C; 1.737 mmol photons/ [m(2).s])| when simulating the strong irradiance of the midday summer sun. This strain thus appears well suited for practical application for converting CO2 present in the stack gases emitted by thermal power plants and should be feasible even during the hot summer weather. 5152,2000,4,4,High-resolution Fourier transform and diode-laser spectroscopy of the nu(6) fundamental of C2F6 and associated hot bands,High-resolution infrared spectra of the upsilon (6) (713 cm(-1)) band region of C2F6 vapor have been recorded at several temperatures. Spectra at 77| 200| and 300 K were recorded using a Fourier transform spectrometer with unapodized resolutions of 0.0018 cm(-1) (200 and 300 K)and 0.008 cm(-1) (77 K). Spectra with rotational temperatures in the range 5-50 K were recorded in a supersonic jet using diode-laser absorption spectroscopy. The upsilon (6) band contains two clear sequences of hot-bands: one arises from the upsilon (4) torsional vibration at 67.5 cm(-1); the other| shorter| weaker progression is built on the doubly degenerate upsilon (9) vibration at 220 cm(-1). They he to high and low wavenumbers of the fundamental band| respectively. Eleven series were assigned and fitted to these hot bands. A perturbed series in the upsilon (4) sequence is considered| by analogy with the infrared spectrum of C2H6 vapor| to be caused by an xy-Coriolis interaction either between 5 upsilon (4) and upsilon (9) + 2 upsilon (4) in the ground slate or| in the upper state| upsilon (6) + 5 upsilon (4) with upsilon (6) + upsilon (9) + 2 upsilon (4) or upsilon (6) + 5 upsilon (4) with 2 upsilon (8). One further series resolved only in the jet spectrum and lying very close to the fundamental is almost certainly due to the upsilon (6) fundamental of the isotopomer (CCF6)-C-13-C-12. (C) 2000 Academic Press. 5338,2000,3,2,High-volume fly ash system: Concrete solution for sustainable development,The challenge for the civil engineering community in the near future will he to realize projects in harmony with the concept of sustainable development| and this involves the use of high-performance materials produced at reasonable cost with the lowest possible environmental impact. Portland cement concrete is a major construction material worldwide. Unfortunately| the production of portland cement releases large amounts of CO(2) into the atmosphere| and because this gas is a major contributor to the greenhouse effect and the global warming of the planet| the developed countries are considering very severe regulations and limitations on the CO(2) emissions. In view of the global sustainable development| if is imperative that supplementary cementing materials be used to replace large proportions of cement in the concrete industry| and the mob available supplementary cementing material worldwide is fly ash| a by-product of thermal power stations. To considerably increase the utilization of fly ash that ts otherwise being wasted| and to have a significant impact on the production of cement| it is necessary to advocate the use of concrete that will incorporate large amounts of fly ash as a replacement for cement. Such concrete| however| must demonstrate performance comparable to that of conventional portland cement concrete| and must be cost effective. In 1985| CANMET developed a concrete incorporating large volumes of fly ash that has all the attributes of high-performance concrete| that is| one that has excellent mechanical properties| low permeability superior durability| and that is environmentally friendly. This paper gives an overview of the properties of this type of concrete that is believed to be a very promising alternative for the industry seeking to meet the sustainable development objectives. 5235,2000,5,4,Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change,We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10|000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation| annual temperature| and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples| assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene| most of the parks experienced colder winters| warmer summers| and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where| by 8000 years ago| January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago| similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm| dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future| thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is sensitive to continental-scale changes in climate and could be affected by future climate change. Plant and animal species sensitive to changes in the moisture regime could thus be endangered within the Great Lakes parks. 5357,2000,5,4,Holocene glacier fluctuations: is the current rate of retreat exceptional?,Most glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere reached their postglacial maximum in recent times| that is| after the medieval period. During the last 100 or 150 years a significant retreat has taken place| and there is little sign that this is coming to an end. The current worldwide shrinkage of glaciers is considered to be a strong indication of global warming. However| glacier retreat should be judged against the natural variability of glacier systems. Numerical glacier models can be used to quantify this variability. I have studied the natural variability of three glaciers for which long historic records of glacier length exist: Nigardsbreen| Norway; Rhonegletscher| Switzerland; and FranzJosefGlacier| New Zealand. Integrations for a 10 000 year period| driven by random forcing of a realistic strength| show that the current retreat cannot be explained from natural variability in glacier length and must be due to external forcing. 3143,2000,5,4,How well can we simulate past climates? Evaluating the models using global palaeoenvironmental datasets,Global syntheses of palaeoenvironmental data are required to test climate models under conditions different from the present. Data sets for this purpose contain data from spatially extensive networks of sites. The data are either directly comparable to model output or readily interpretable in terms of modelled climate variables. Data sets must contain sufficient documentation to distinguish between raw (primary) and interpreted (secondary| tertiary) data| to evaluate the assumptions involved in interpretation of the data| to exercise quality control| and to select data appropriate for specific goals. Four data bases for the Late Quaternary| documenting changes in lake levels since 30 (14)C kyr BP (the Global Lake Status Data Base)| vegetation distribution at 18 (14)C kyr and 6 (14)C kyr BP (BIOME 6000)| aeolian accumulation rates during the last glacial-interglacial cycle (DIRTMAP)| and tropical terrestrial climates at the Last Glacial Maximum (the LGM Tropical Terrestrial Data Synthesis) are summarised. Each has been used to evaluate simulations of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 calendar kyr BP) and/or mid-Holocene (6 cal. kyr BP) environments. Comparisons have demonstrated that changes in radiative forcing and orography due to orbital and ice-sheet variations explain the first-order| broad-scale (in space and time) features of global climate change since the LGM. However| atmospheric models forced by 6 cal. kyr BP orbital changes with unchanged surface conditions fail to capture quantitative aspects of the observed climate| including the greatly increased magnitude and northward shift of the African monsoon during the early to mid-Holocene. Similarly| comparisons with palaeoenvironmental datasets show that atmospheric models have underestimated the magnitude of cooling and drying of much of the land surface at the LGM. The inclusion of feedbacks due to changes in ocean- and land-surface conditions at both times| and atmospheric dust loading at the LGM| appears to be required in order to produce a better simulation of these past climates. The development of Earth system models incorporating the dynamic interactions among ocean| atmosphere| and vegetation is therefore mandated by Quaternary science results as well as climatological principles. For greatest scientific benefit| this development must be paralleled by continued advances in palaeodata analysis and synthesis| which in turn will help to define questions that call for new focused data collection efforts. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5253,2000,4,2,Identifying key sources of uncertainty in climate change projections,What sources of uncertainty should be included in climate change projections and what gains can be made if specific sources of uncertainty are reduced through improved research? DIALOGUE| an integrated assessment model| has been used to answer these questions. Central in the approach of DIALOGUE is the concept of parallel modeling| i.e.| for each step in the chain from emissions to climate change a number of equivalent models are implemented. The following conclusions are drawn: The key source of uncertainty in global temperature projections appears to be the uncertainty in radiative forcing models. Within this group of models uncertainty within aerosol forcing models is about equal to the total forcing of greenhouse gas models. In the latter group CO2 is: dominant. The least important source of uncertainty appears to be the gas cycle models. Within this group of models the role of carbon cycle models is dominant. Uncertainty in global temperature projections has not been treated consistently in the literature. First| uncertainty should be calculated as a product of all uncertainty sources. Second| a particular choice of a base year for global warming calculations influences the ranking of uncertainty. Because of this| a comparison of ranking results across different studies is hampered. We argue that 'pre-Industrial' is the best choice for studies on uncertainty. There is a linear relationship between maximum uncertainty in the year 2100 and cumulative emissions of CO2 over the period 1990-2100: higher emissions lead to more uncertainty. 5192,2000,2,3,Impact of a climatic warming scenario on tree growth.,The climatic impact on tree radial growth resulting from an atmospheric CO2 doubling was studied for 24 populations of five tree species in the French Alps and the French Mediterranean area. The Arpege AGCM| which predicts a 3 degreesC increase in mean temperature and a light increase of precipitation| is used to estimate the climatic perturbation. The method is based on the integration of estimated climate in an empirical tree-ring to climate model| involving artificial neural networks. Only a few populations are sensitive to the climatic change; all are located on the boundaries of their ecological area and can be divided in two groups. The first one is composed of high altitude populations which show a growth increase induced by the warmer climate during the growing season. The second one| composed of a single Mediterranean Scots pine population| reacts with a severe growth reduction induced by the stronger water stress in summer. (C) 2000 Academie des sciences/Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. 5327,2000,2,3,Impact of climate change on slope stability using expanded downscaling,Climate parameters affecting ground water and pore pressure fluctuations can| in many cases| trigger slope instability and hence landslide activity. Global warming due to the greenhouse effect and especially changes in precipitation patterns and air temperature might therefore have influences on future landslide activity. The present paper shows an assessment of climate change consequences for displacement rates of a mudslide in the Dolomites| Italy. The study is based on climate projections of a general circulation model (GCM). GCMs are able to successfully reproduce large-scale patterns of climate| while they show a poor performance on the regional scale. Therefore| GCM output is postprocessed with a statistical downscaling technique to derive local-scale climate change information from simulated atmospheric circulation patterns of the European-North Atlantic sector. The resulting precipitation and temperature series are introduced in a hydrological tank model| which calculates daily groundwater levels. Based on the groundwater data| a visco-plastic rheological model is applied to derive displacement rates of the mudslide as final output. The climate change signal is most pronounced for air temperature| while it is weaker but still significant for yearly precipitation| which is decreasing. As a consequence| yearly displacement rates show a significant reduction. The most dramatic changes| however| occur in spring with strongly lowered groundwater levels and consequently decreasing displacement rates. This is seen as an effect of reduced storage of winter precipitation as snow and hence decreasing meltwater amounts in early spring. The presented model chain with statistical downscaling| hydrological and rheological models allows the assessment of future landslide displacement affected by the greenhouse effect. The results| however| have to be taken with caution since in all parts of the model chain there are uncertainties that are difficult to address. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3115,2000,2,4,Impact of global climate change on China's water resources,It is indicated that up to the year 2030| the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2 degrees C| with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly| but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area| and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m(3) in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan| and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area. 5319,2000,2,3,Impact of global warming on the Asian winter monsoon in a coupled GCM,The Asian winter monsoon (AWM) response to the global warming was investigated through a long-term integration of the transient greenhouse warming with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 CGCM. The physics of the response was studied through analyses of the impact of the global warming on the variations of the ocean and land contrast near the ground in the Asian and western Pacific region and the east Asian trough and jet stream in the middle and upper troposphere. Forcing of transient eddy activity on the zonal circulation over the Asian and western Pacific region was also analyzed. It is found that in the global warming scenario the winter northeasterlies along the Pacific coast of the Eurasian continent weaken systematically and significantly| and intensity of the AWM reduces evidently| but the AWM. variances on the interannual and interdecadal scales are not affected much by the global warming. It is suggested that the global warming makes the climate over the most part of Asia to be milder with enhanced moisture in winter. In the global warming scenario the contrasts of the sea level pressure and the near-surface temperature between the Asian continent and the Pacific Ocean become significantly smaller| northward and eastward shifts and weakening of the east Asian trough and jet stream in the middle and upper troposphere are found. As a consequence| the cold air in the AWM originating from the east Asian trough and high latitudes is less powerful. In addition| feedback of the transient activity also makes a considerable contribution to the higher-latitude shift of the jet stream over the North Pacific in the global warming scenario. 5341,2000,2,3,Impacts of climate warming on forests in Ontario: Options for adaptation and mitigation,This paper summarizes current knowledge about the optical properties of greenhouse gases and general climate-warming influences. It explains the influence of this new phenomenon on the major ecosystems of the world| and considers the process of deforestation. It then analyzes the warming trends in Ontario based on data from two weather stations with continuous records of more than 120 years| to determine the rate of warming in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Region. The results indicate a temperature increase of about 0.76 degrees C per century and an 8% increase in annual total precipitation. Current climate change models indicate that for a scenario of 2 x CO2 levels some general| probable prognoses can be made| including a temperature increase of up to 4.5 degrees C| which might be disastrous for existing forest ecosystems. Specifically| the consequences of climate warming on (a) northward shifts of ecological conditions| (b) forest productivity| and (c) forest physiology and health| are examined. In the context of global warming| the paper then recommends practical management measures necessary to ensure adaptation of existing forest ecosystems to the warming that is already developing. These measures are intended to provide a no-risk environment for existing forests until rotation age. Next| a wide range of mitigative measures is examined with a view to securing the longterm preservation of forest ecosystems to avoid major ecological disruptions and| gradually| to reverse climate warming. Application of these measures requires international consensus| but countries that apply these recommendations first have a chance to profit from them due to the "CO2 fertilization" effect. 3079,2000,2,4,Impacts of global climate change scenarios on water supply and demand in Jordan,The potential impact of global climate change is one of the least addressed factors in water resources planning in developing countries. The potential impacts of climate change are examined for Jordan| where a methodology is presented for improved management of water demand under the uncertainties associated with climate change. A temperature/precipitation sensitivity model is constructed and combined with water demand forecasts to project deficits for the year 2020. Deficit reducing options are then evaluated in terms of social and economic viability. The study concludes that only some of the deficits may be alleviated| illustrating the significance of considering climate change in planning for countries that already experience water imbalances. 5366,2000,3,3,Impacts of soil management on root characteristics of switchgrass,One approach to reducing the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide| which is a dominant greenhouse gas| is to develop renewable energy sources from biofuel crops. Switchgrass| (Panicum virgatum L.) as an energy crop| can partly mitigate potential global warming by supplementing fossil fuels and sequestering carbon (C). Although switchgrass grown for energy may impact C sequestration via the input of root biomass| information on the impact of soil management on switchgrass root growth is extremely limited. We determined the influence of row spacing| nitrogen (N) rate| switchgrass cultivar| and soil type on switchgrass root characteristics. Roots were mainly distributed in the surface soil (0-15 cm)| and were 90.4 and 68.2% of the total in the intrarow and interrow profile| respectively. Nitrogen application altered root N but not C concentration| implying that any increase in C sequestration by switchgrass roots will be due to increased root biomass rather than increased C concentration. Root weight density generally decreased in the interrow with wider row width| and N application generally did not affect root weight density. Root weight density in the Pacolet soil was higher than in the other four soils| and root density was 4.1 times higher in the Pacolet soil than in the Norfolk soil. Root mass in the Pacolet soil (36|327 kg ha(-1)) was 2.7 times greater than that found in the Norfolk soil (13|204 bg ha(-1)) within 150 cm of the soil surface. Differences in root characteristics were found among cultivars: root weight density with 'Cave-in-Rock' switchgrass was 29.4 and 47.6% higher than 'Alamo' and 'Kanlow'| respectively. Variations in switchgrass root biomass production owing to soil type and cultivar suggest that site and cultivar selection will be important determinants of C sequestration by switchgrass roots. A potential benefit of switchgrass is the reduced loss of nutrients associated with non-point pollution| owing to its deep root system that may extend 330 cm below the soil surface. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 3139,2000,4,3,In situ respiration determination as tool for classifying soils according to soil organic matter content,Soil respiration is indicative of biological status of the soil and high respiration is correlated to high contents of available carbon (C) in soil and/or organic matter content. Because of soil respiration's relationship to soil organic matter status and content| soil respiration is considered one measurement that could aid in determining the quality of soil. In the global scale| the cycling of C in soil is important because the rise in CO2 in the atmosphere is linked to global climate change. In situ measurement of CO2 using instruments that are portable and perform analyses quickly are important to obtain sufficient number of measurements in the field to overcome spatial variability. Soil respiration tests were conducted in plots amended with fertilizer or organic amendments of agricultural or municipal residues since 1994. Besides CO2 moisture and temperature were measured over a period where the moisture varied from near saturation to below wilting point. It was found that flux was curvilinearly related to moisture from 5 to 40% (v/v). Maximum flux occurred for all plots between 30 and 40% saturation. The ratio of flux normalized by temperature to the volumetric soil moisture divided soils into two categories| those with soil organic matter (SOM) content above or below 4.5%. The determinations of CO2 flux| moisture and temperature uses equipment that is portable so that several sites in a field can be analyzed to reduce spatial variation. The only limitation is that the determinations must be performed on soils with less than 40% saturation or 25% moisture (v/v) because the normalized function is no longer linear above this moisture content. More than two SOM categories might be found if studies are expanded to soils with a wider range of SOM content. 5217,2000,5,4,Increased terrestrial carbon storage across the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary,A rapid| short-lived| global warming event at the close of the Palaeocene ca. 55.5 million years ago (Ma) was associated with the addition of massive amounts of carbon to the exogenic carbon cycle and major benthic extinctions. Evaluation of the response of the terrestrial biosphere to this transient ancient 'greenhouse' world with a process-based terrestrial carbon cycle model and global palaeoclimate simulations indicates the sequestration of ca. 1112 Gt C into the vegetation and soil carbon pools. A largely independent global carbon isotope mass balance analysis also points to the strong potential for the terrestrial biosphere to sequester substantial amounts of carbon at this time| with the increase being calculated at between 2107 and 3060 Gt C. This analysis suggests that some other feature of global environmental change across the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary may have been forcing terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics at this time. However| even a minimum increase of 1112 Gt C would have been sufficiently large to implicate the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle as a negative feedback mechanism on climate at 55.5 Ma| possibly reducing global temperatures by up to 2.5 degrees C. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5227,2000,3,4,Inductively coupled plasmas in low global-warming-potential gases,Many high-density discharges used in microelectronics fabrication use fluorocarbon gases with coincidentally high global-warming potentials (GWPs). We have determined the identities| fluxes| and energy distributions of ions produced in high-density discharges generated in two low GWP gases| CF3I and CF3CH2F (HFC-134a)| which have attracted interest for plasma processing applications. Measurements were made using a combined ion energy analyser-mass spectrometer that samples ions through an orifice in the lower electrode of an inductively coupled Gaseous Electronics Conference (GEC) rf reference cell. The effects of plasma operating conditions and Ar dilution on ion fluxes and energies were examined. Nearly complete dissociation of CF3I occurs in CF3I discharges and I+ comprises almost all of the ion yield. Mean ion energies range from 5 eV to 10 eV for the operating conditions investigated. Discharges generated in mixtures of CF3I with Ar have ion fluxes and energies resembling those in pure CF3I discharges. Pure HFC-134a discharges produce several ions of significant intensity| with HF+ and Si+ bring the most abundant. Mean ion energies range from 20 eV to 35 eV| and decrease as HFC-134a is diluted with Ar. Higher discharge powers result in greater dissociation in HFC-134a discharges| shifting the ion composition towards higher fluxes of lighter ions. 5146,2000,2,4,Infection in the twenty-first century: predictions and postulates,The late Paul Garrod| in whose honour this lecture is named| was 'the right man at the right time'. He seized the opportunities offered by the dawning of the chemotherapeutic era with vigour and enthusiasm and was a formidable link between the traditional laboratory-based bacteriologist and the more clinically orientated 'modern' medical microbiologist. Professor Garrod was a founder member of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy and I had the privilege of meeting him on many occasions. He would have relished the many challenges facing today's microbiologists| infectious disease physicians and public health experts. These wilt have major implications for antimicrobial chemotherapy in the twenty-first century. The emergence and prevalence of infectious diseases| and the necessity for discovering therapies to treat them| are influenced by many factors. In this lecture I will discuss four which could have a major influence on infectious diseases in the twenty-first century-global warming| biological warfare/terrorism| the dissemination of infections| including those caused by resistant pathogens| by travellers and certain untreatable zoonotic diseases. 3103,2000,2,4,Influence of N and non-N salts on atmospheric methane oxidation by upland boreal forest and tundra soils,The short-term (24h) and: medium-term (30 day) influence of N salts (NH4Cl| NaNO3 and NaNO2) and a non-N salt (NaCl) on first-order rate constants| k (h(-1)) and thresholds (C-Th) for atmospheric CH4 oxidation by homogenized composites of upland boreal forest and tundra soils was assessed at salt additions ranging to 20 mu mol g(-1) dry weight (dw) soil. Additions of NH4Cl| NaNO3 and NaCl to 0.5 mu mol g(-1) dw soil did not significantly decrease k relative to watered controls in the short term. Higher concentrations significantly reduced k| with the degree of inhibition increasing with increasing dose. Similar doses of NH4Cl and NaCl gave comparable decreases in k relative to controls and both soils showed low native concentrations of NH4+-N (less than or equal to 1 mu mol g(-1)dw soil)| suggesting that the reduction in k was due primarily to a salt influence rather than competitive inhibition of CH4 oxidation by exogenous NH4+-N or NH4+-N released through cation exchange. The decrease in k was consistently less for NaNO3 than for NH4Cl and NaCl at similar doses| pointing to a strong inhibitory effect of the Cl- counteranion. Thresholds for CH4 oxidation were less sensitive to salt addition than k for these three salts| as significant increases in C-Th relative to controls were only observed at concentrations greater than or equal to 1.0 mu mol g(-1) dw soil. Both soils were more sensitive to NaNO2 than to other salts in the short term| showing a significant decrease in k at an addition of 0.25 mu mol NaNO2 g(-1) dw soil that was clearly attributable to NO;. Soils showed no recovery from NaCl| NH4+-N or NaNO3 addition with respect to atmospheric CH4 oxidation after 30days. However| soils amended with NaNO2 to 1.0 mu mol NaNO2 g(-1) dw showed values of k that were not significantly different from controls. Recovery of CH4-oxidizing ability was due to complete oxidation of NO2--N to NO3--N. Analysis of soil concentrations of N salts necessary to inhibit atmospheric CH4 oxidation and regional rates of N deposition suggest that N deposition will not decrease the future sink strength of upland high-latitude soils in the atmospheric CH4 budget. 5149,2000,2,4,Influence of potential climate change on forest landscape dynamics of west-central Alberta,Changes in climatic conditions may influence both forest biomass accumulation rates and natural disturbance regimes. While changes in biomass accumulation of forests under various climatic conditions have been described by yield equations| large uncertainties exist with regard to disturbance regimes. Under the doubling carbon dioxide scenario| global warming impacts have been predicted from simulation results of the first generation of coupled global climate model (CGCMI). The calculated fine fuel moisture code (FFMC) distribution from the simulation results showed a one-point increase compared with the distribution under current climate conditions. The impact of predicted changes in FFMC distributions on fire disturbance patterns| forest volume| and landscape structure was investigated by using the spatially explicit model for landscape dynamics (SEM-LAND). The simulation results showed increases in fire disturbance frequency and decreases in forest volume. The simulations also showed decreases in landscape fragmentation and landscape diversity| whereas total availability of core habitat for wildlife increased. 5188,2000,2,4,Influence of spring warming on the predation rate of underyearling fish on Daphnia - a deterministic simulation approach,1. According to previous field studies in the biomanipulated Bautzen reservoir (Germany)| a midsummer decline of the dominating zooplankter| Daphnia galeata| was suggested to be initiated by a simultaneous occurrence of low fecundity of the daphnids and a selective feeding of underyearling fish on mature daphnids. The timing of both processes was assumed to be triggered by spring water temperature. However| the field data were not appropriate for testing whether yearly differences in spring warming are strong enough to control the predation rate of underyearling fish on daphnids. 2. By combining field data on fish growth| feeding and population mortality| the daily uptake of Daphnia by a virtual population of underyearling perch (Perca fluviatilis) was simulated| in addition| the daily predatory mortality of mature daphnids was calculated independently. Scenarios with a warm and a cold spring were compared. Furthermore| the delayed warming of a pelagic zone of a lake versus a littoral one was simulated. Sensitivity of the simulation to changes in five parameters was tested. 3. In both the warm spring scenario and the littoral warming scenario| more daphnids in general and more mature daphnids in particular were eaten| compared with the cold spring and pelagic scenarios. The predatory mortality of mature daphnids was driven by the increasing gape size of growing fish such that in warmer years the fish reach earlier the size at which they can eat mature daphnids. 4. The simulation was most sensitive to changes in daily mortality rate of the fish and to the size at maturity of the daphnids. Since at least the fish mortality is also temperature-dependent via the growth rates of fish| the predation rate of perch on D. galeata in Bautzen reservoir is substantially increased during a warm spring. This underlines the assumption that even a slight global warming may have a decisive influence on food web processes due to the fine-scaled patterns of trophic interactions in lakes. 5156,2000,2,3,Initial effects of experimental warming on above- and belowground components of net ecosystem CO2 exchange in arctic tundra,The Arctic contains extensive soil carbon reserves that could provide a substantial positive feedback to atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming. Evaluation of this hypothesis requires a mechanistic understanding of the in situ responses of individual components of tundra net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) to warming. In this study| we measured NEE| total ecosystem respiration and respiration from below ground in experimentally warmed plots within Alaskan acidic tussock tundra. Soil warming of 2-4 degreesC during a single growing season caused strong increases in total ecosystem respiration and belowground respiration from moss-dominated inter-tussock areas| and similar trends from sedge-dominated tussocks. Consequently| the overall effect of the manipulation was to substantially enhance net ecosystem carbon loss during mid-summer. Components of vascular plant biomass were closely correlated with total ecosystem respiration and belowground respiration in control plots of both microsites| but not in warmed plots. By contrast| in the warmed inter-tussock areas| below ground respiration was most closely correlated with organic-layer depth. Warming in tussock areas was associated with increased leaf nutrient pools| indicating enhanced rates of soil nutrient mineralisation. Together| these results suggest that warming enhanced net ecosystem CO2 efflux primarily by stimulating decomposition of soil organic matter| rather than by increasing plant-associated respiration. Our short-term experiment provides field evidence to support previous growth chamber and modelling studies indicating that arctic soil C reserves are relatively sensitive to warming and could supply an initial positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations/changing climate. 5280,2000,3,4,Insights into the processing of carbon in the South Florida Cypress Wetlands: a whole-ecosystem approach using network analysis,Aim The aim of this research was to investigate the potential of the South Florida Cypress Wetlands as a carbon-accumulating system. Location This ecosystem is part of the Big Cypress Natural Preserve| located in the south-west part of Florida (USA) between the Mangrove Swamps that border the Gulf of Mexico and the Everglades. Methods This investigation was carried out by constructing networks of carbon exchange between the living and nonliving components that comprise this ecosystem. By means of these networks potential for carbon accumulation has been assessed by identifying and quantifying pathways for the transfer of carbon| assessing the efficiency between trophic levels| and evaluating the importance of material cycling. These analyses are commonly referred to as network analysis. Results Results obtained show that dependency on detritus by higher trophic levels is rather low and so is the trophic efficiency. Yet| less than 10% of the carbon that flows through the system is recycled and the magnitude of internal ascendency reaches only 40% of the total system ascendency. Main conclusions All these results support the hypothesis that the South Florida Cypress Wetlands are predominately flow-through in nature and that carbon accumulation in this environment is noticeable. 5216,2000,2,3,Intensified Asian summer monsoon and its variability in a coupled model forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations,The Asian summer monsoon response to global warming is investigated by a transient greenhouse warming integration with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 CGCM. It is demonstrated that increases of greenhouse gas concentrations intensify the Asian summer monsoon and its variability. The intensified monsoon results mainly from an enhanced land-sea contrast and a northward shift of the convergence zone. A gradual increase of the monsoon variability is simulated from year 2030 onwards. It seems to be connected with the corresponding increase of the sea surface temperature variability over the tropical Pacific. 5360,2000,2,3,Interactions between atmospheric CO2 enrichment and soil fauna,We have reviewed the responses of soil fauna to increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and the consequent climate change. These will affect several attributes of animal populations and communities including their density| biomass| diversity| activity| rates of consumption| life history parameters and migration ability. Changes in the quality and quantity of litter and global warming are the main factors which are expected to modify soil fauna. Although changes have been observed in several attributes of the soil fauna as a consequence of increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2| no general trend which might allow to the prediction of a general pattern of response has been identified. Because of the complexity of the biological mechanisms and the synergetic action of several factors| the few resulting responses reported in the literature are inconclusive. However| some aspects of the situation deserve more attention. These include the consequences of (1) changes in the food resources for soil fauna in the litter layer and in the rhizosphere| (2) the consumption of low quality litter by the macrofauna| (3) the change in life span in response to temperature elevation| (4) the enhancement of earthworm burrowing activity and (5) the changes in community composition arising because of specific differential resistance to adverse conditions. 3087,2000,2,4,Interactions of elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization: Effects on production of Bacillus thuringiensis toxins in transgenic plants,Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will cause plants to grow faster| lower nitrogen content per unit of plant tissue| and generate higher carbon to nitrogen (C/N) ratios. We hypothesize that production of transgenic proteins will be reduced| thus reducing the efficiency of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) transgenes against insect populations. Commercially available transgenic cotton plants expressing the Cry 1Ac gene from Bt were compared with a near isogenic non-Bt cotton line in a split-plot design with two levels of atmospheric CO2 (ambient| 370 ppm and elevated| 900 ppm) incorporating a 2 X 2 factorial design with two nitrogen (N) fertilization regimes (low| 30 mg N/kg soil/wk and high| 130 mg N/kg soil/wk)|and two levels of Bt (presence or absence). Bioassays using Spodoptera exigua (Hubner) and quantitative enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for toxin content indicated reduced Bt protein production in elevated CO2. The tendency for test insects to consume more foliage from plants with lower N| caused by the elevated CO2| did not compensate for the reduction in toxin production. N fertilization regime interacted with CO2 concentration| showing that plants growing in N limited systems would produce-substantially less toxin. The use of transgenic plants is becoming increasingly important and will continue to be so in the next decades. At the same time| atmospheric CO2 increase will affect the effectiveness of this strategy. These observations have implications not only for agricultural use of transgenic plants| but also for the ecological consequences of transfer of Bt toxins to closely related wild plant genotypes. 3125,2000,2,4,Interactive effects of atmospheric CO2 and soil-N availability on fine roots of Populus tremuloides,The objective of this experiment was to understand how atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and soil-nitrogen (N) availability influence Populus tremuloides fine-root growth and morphology. Soil-N availability may limit the growth response of forests to elevated CO2 and interact with atmospheric CO2 to alter litter quality and ecosystem carbon (C) and N cycling. We established a CO2 x N factorial field experiment and grew six genotypes of P. tremuloides for 2.5 growing seasons in 20 large open-top chamber/root-box experimental units at the University of Michigan Biological Station in northern lower Michigan (USA). Ln this paper we describe an integrated examination of how atmospheric CO2 and soil-N availability influence fine-root morphology| growth| mortality| and biomass. We also studied the relationship between root biomass and total soil respiration. Over 80% of the absorbing root length of P. tremuloides was accounted fur by roots <0.4 mm in diameter| and specific root length(100-250 m/g) was much greater than reports for other temperate and boreal deciduous trees. Elevated atmospheric CO2 increased the diameter and length of individual roots. In contrast| soil N had no effect on root morphology. Fine-root length production and mortality| measured with minirhizotrons| was controlled by the interaction between atmospheric CO2 and soil N. Rates of root production and mortality were significantly greater at elevated CO2 when trees grew in high-N soil| but there were no CO2 effects at low soil N. Fine-root biomass increased 137-194% in high-N compared to low-N soil| and elevated atmospheric CO2 increased fine-root biomass (52%) in high soil N| but differences in low soil N were not significant. Across all treatments| dynamic estimates of net fine-root production were highly correlated with fine-root biomass (soil cores; r = 0.975). Mean rates of soil respiration were more than double in high-N compared to low-N soil. and elevated atmospheric CO2| when compared to ambient atmospheric CO2| increased mean rates of soil respiration 19% in 1995 and 25% in 1996. Across all treatments| total root biomass was linearly related to mean rates of soil respiration (r(2) = 0.96). Our results indicate that atmospheric CO2 and soil-N availability strongly interact to influence P. tremuloides fine-root morphology| growth| and C turnover. Aspen-dominated ecosystems of the future are likely to have greater productivity fueled by greater nutrient uptake due to greater root length production. Further| it appears that elevated atmospheric CO2 will result in greater C inputs to soil through greater rates of fine-root production and turnover| especially in high-fertility soils. Increased C inputs to soil result in greater rates of soil respiration. At this rime| it is not clear what effects increased rates of root turnover will have on C storage in the soil. 5196,2000,5,4,Intercomparison of coral oxygen isotope data and historical sea surface temperature (SST): Potential for coral-based SST field reconstructions,We examine the extent to which the large-scale features of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly field are represented by a sparse observational network of coral oxygen isotope (delta(18)O) time series. Regression of annually averaged delta(18)O data against gridded estimates of local SST anomaly within the period 1856-1990 confirm the literature regression of delta(18)O anomaly on SST anomaly for Indo-Pacific corals. However| while interannual SST variability is generally well represented by individual coral time series| observed decadal and secular variability does not always display a linear relationship to local SST anomaly. Instead| many records appear to better recover nonlocal| large-scale phenomena| which in turn are related to either the coral local SST or SST covariant changes in seawater delta(18)O. We employ empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to identify common patterns of variability in the coral data. We find two significant patterns which are interpretable as the oceanographic signature of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and as a near-global warming in which the eastern equatorial Pacific cools. A third pattern weakly resembles the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These modes are seen more clearly in a singular Vector decomposition (SVD) of the covariance between the coral data and the dominant patterns of large-scale historical SST variability. The results are consistent with those found in EOF and SVD analyses of SST data from the coral locations. As additional coral-based proxy estimates become available| they will improve the resolution of the patterns recovered. These results suggest that a sparse network of coral data may be used to reconstruct interannual| secular| and decadal SST variability for preinstrumental periods| albeit with large uncertainty. 3055,2000,4,4,Intercomparison of shipboard and moored CARIOCA buoy seawater fCO(2) measurements in the Sargasso Sea,The ocean is an important sink for carbon and heat| yet high-resolution measurements of biogeochemical properties relevant to global climate change are being made only sporadically in the ocean at present. There is a growing need for automated| real-time| long-term measurements of CO2 in the ocean using a network of sensors| strategically placed oh ships| moorings| free-drifting buoys and autonomous remotely operated vehicles. The ground-truthing of new sensor technologies is a vital component of present and future efforts to monitor changes in the ocean carbon cycle and air-sea exchange of CO2. A comparison of a moored Carbon Interface Ocean Atmosphere (CARIOCA) buoy and shipboard fugacity of CO2 (fCO(2)) measurements was conducted in the western North Atlantic during two extended periods (> I month) in 1997. The CARIOCA buoy was deployed on the Bermuda Testbed Mooring (BTM)| which is located 5 km noah of the site of the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS). The high frequency of sampling revealed that temperature and fCO(2) responded to physical forcing by the atmosphere on timescales from diurnal to 4-8 days. Concurrent with the deployments of the CARIOCA buoy| frequent measurements of surface fCO(2) were made from the R/V Weatherbird II during opportunistic visits to the BTM and BATS sites| providing a direct calibration of the CARIOCA buoy fCO(2) data. Although| the in situ ground-truthing of the CARIOCA buoy was complicated by diurnal processes| sub-mesoscale and fine-scale variability| the CARIOCA buoy fCO(2) data was accurate within 3+/-6 mu atm of shipboard fCO(2) data for periods up to 50 days. Longer-term assessments were not possible due to the CARIOCA buoy breaking free of the BTM and drifting into waters with different fCO(2)-temperature properties. Strategies are put forward for future calibration of other in situ sensors. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5161,2000,2,4,Interdecadal changes in the precipitation seasonal cycle over Southern South America and their relationship with surface temperature,The decadal variability in the structure of the annual precipitation cycle over Southern South America (SSA) is analysed with the purpose of investigating whether the lower frequency variability laid bare by annual data is also evident in the annual precipitation structure. Climatic analysis shows that the annual cycle plus the semi-annual cycle dominate the annual variability of precipitation in SSA and represent most of the physical factors responsible for the observed patterns. The percentage of variance explained by the annual cycle shows 2 local maxima| in northwestern Argentina and southern Chile| with opposite phases| summer and winter. The interdecadal analysis of the annual cycle shows 2 areas of relevant variability: one over the central east and the other over the north east. In the first area| there is a positive trend in the variance explained by the first harmonic| indicating that precipitation tends to be better represented by an annual cycle| a fact that might indicate a climatic change in so far as this variable is concerned. In view of global warming| and as a first step towards quantifying the relationship between temperature and precipitation in the region| correlation coefficients are evaluated. The correlation structure of the warmer period 1943-52 generally shows a slight correlation pattern when compared to the 2 colder periods| 1955-64 and 1966-75. In northwestern Argentina| the highest positive correlation coefficients are found at the coldest times in 1955-64| and are probably related to an increase in cloudiness. During summer months (November to February)| there is an inverse relationship between precipitation and temperature over most of SSA. That is| warmer/colder summers are associated with precipitation below/above the mean. In autumn and spring months| the correlation is positive in the eastern part of Argentina and Paraguay| and represents well the mechanism of maximum precipitation in this area| which is mainly the result of cyclogenesis. Winter correlation shows a weak positive pattern over SSA and a negative correlation area to the east of the Cordillera de los Andes| which is more intense in spring. 5372,2000,4,3,Interpretation of simulated global warming using a simple model,A simple energy balance model with two parameters| an effective heat capacity and an effective climate sensitivity| is used to interpret six CCM simulations of greenhouse gas-induced global warming. By allowing the parameters to vary in time| the model can be accurately calibrated for each run. It is found that the sensitivity can be approximated as a constant in each case. However the effective heat capacity clearly varies| and it is important that the energy equation is formulated appropriately| and thus unlike many such models. For simulations with linear forcing and from a cold start| the capacity is in each case close to that of a homogeneous ocean with depth initially 200 m| but increasing some 4.3 m each year irrespective of the sensitivity and forcing growth rate. Analytic solutions for this linear capacity function are derived| and these reproduce the GCM runs well| even for cases where the forcing is stabilized after a century or so. The formation of a subsurface maximum in the mean ocean temperature anomaly is a significant feature of such cases. A simple model for a GCM run with a realistic forcing scenario starting from 1880 is constructed using component results for forcing segments. Given this. an estimate of the cold start error of a simulation of the warming due to forcing after the present would be given by the negative of the temperature drift of the anomaly due to the past forcing. The simple model can evidently be used to give an indication of likely warming curves| at least for this range of scenarios and GCM sensitivities. 5197,2000,3,3,Inventory of emissions of greenhouse gases in Israel,As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change| Israel is committed to develop a national inventory of anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gases. This paper presents the national inventory| which was developed according to the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The inventory includes the following sectors: energy| industrial processes| agriculture| forestry and waste. In this paper| only the inventory of the direct greenhouse gases (CO2| CH4 and N2O) is presented. Emissions of these gases were converted to CO2 equivalent emissions by means of their Global Warming Potentials (a measure of the radiative effects of the different gases relatively to CO2). CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels to produce energy are by far the largest source (50 million tons in 1996). The contribution of methane emissions from decomposition of landfilled municipal solid waste is second in importance (8 million tons of CO2 equivalent). Industrial processes emit about 2 million tons CO2 equivalent| the most important process being cement production. Agricultural emissions amount to about 2 million tons CO2 equivalent and are due to soil emissions of nitrous oxide| methane emissions from enteric fermentation in domestic livestock and N2O and CH4 emissions from animal waste management. Although most forests in Israel are in a growing stage and atmospheric CO2 is therefore removed to form biomass| this removal amounts to 0.4 million tons only and is very small as compared to emissions from other sectors. On a per capita basis| Israel's emissions of CO2 from fuel combustion are not far behind those of some of the most developed countries. 5330,2000,3,4,Investigation of refrigerating system with R12 refrigerant replacements,This paper deals with the influence of R12 working fluid replacements on energy efficiency and global warming expressed by values of Coefficient of Performance (COP) and Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI). Experimental investigations are presented which relate the use of refrigerants R134a| R401A| R409A| R22 and the mixture of R134a with R12 to the values of COP and TEWI of refrigerating system in comparison with R12 application. It is shown that the use of R134a| R401A and R409A refrigerants enables the increase of COP coefficient and significantly reduces the value of TEWI in comparison with R12 application. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5234,2000,2,4,Irreversible investment in wetlands preservation: Optimal ecosystem restoration under uncertainty,The question of how to manage a lacustrine wetland is analyzed given the uncertain potential for long-term lake level changes resulting from global warming and the uncertain biological processes involved in creating wetlands. Three management options are considered: do nothing; construct a dike that removes hydrological connections with the lake ("closed dike"); and build a dike that maintains a hydrological connection with the lake| but can be converted to a closed dike under adverse conditions ("open dike"). For all practical purposes| dike construction represents an irreversible choice. The model| a stochastic dynamic program| is used to optimize the timing and type of protective structure under a range of management goals. A wetland can either be optimal for fish or optimal for mammals and waterfowl| but not both. Because credible estimates of the economic values of wetland services do not exist| we treat those values as parameters in a multiobjective analysis and show the decisions implied by alternative valuations. The model is applied to the case of Metzger Marsh| a Lake Erie coastal wetland near Toledo| Ohio| where the decision was made in 1993 to construct an open dike. We find that the optimal decision is robust with respect to varying assumptions about the formation of barrier beaches and the probability of climate change| but that the decision is not robust to assumptions concerning the health of an unprotected Metzger Marsh. The most important source of uncertainty is the biological health of an unprotected wetland. 3140,2000,5,4,Isotopic evidence for late Quaternary climatic change in tropical South America,The tropical hydrologic cycle affects atmospheric trace gases and global climate change| and thus records of hydrologic change encompassing a variety of time scales from the low latitudes are important in paleoclimatology. Isotopic analysis of calcite from Lake Junin| Peru| provides a record of hydrologic variability that spans the last glacial-interglacial transition in the southern tropics. The record reveals a 6 parts per thousand enrichment in delta(18)O(calcite) during the late glacial followed by a gradual depletion during the Holocene| which can be interpreted as a decrease followed by a long-term increase in effective moisture. Close agreement between delta(18)O(calcite) and rainy season insolation indicates that long-term changes in tropical hydrology were linked to orbital variations. Furthermore| hydrologic change was out of phase in the northern and southern tropics over this time period. 5167,2000,2,2,Land and ocean carbon cycle feedback effects on global warming in a simple Earth system model,A simple Earth system model is developed by coupling a box model of the global carbon cycle to an energy-balance approximation of global temperature. The model includes a range of feedback mechanisms between atmospheric CO2| surface temperature and land and ocean carbon cycling. It is used to assess their effect on the global change being driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change. When tuned to reach the 1990 level of atmospheric CO2| the model CO2 predictions for 1832-1990 are reasonably close to ice-core and instrumental records| observed global warming of similar to0.6 K from 1860-1990 is accurately predicted and the land and ocean carbon sinks for the 1980s are close to IPCC central estimates. The ocean sink is reduced by similar to0.3 GtC yr(-1) when the ocean surface is assumed to warm at the same rate as global surface temperature. Land and oceanic carbon sinks are predicted to be growing at present and hence buffering the rate of rise of atmospheric CO2. In the basic model| the current land carbon sink is assumed to be due to CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis. The slight warming that has occurred enhances soil respiration (carbon loss) and net primary productivity (carbon uptake) by similar amounts. When the model is forced with a "business as usual" (IS92a) emissions scenario for 1990-2100 followed by a linear decline in emissions to zero at 2200| CO2 reaches a peak of 985 ppmv in 2170 and temperature peaks at +5.5 K in 2180. Peak CO2 is similar to 135 ppmv higher than suggested by IPCC for the same forcing| principally because global warming first suppresses the land carbon sink then generates a land carbon source. When warming exceeds similar to4.5 K| soil respiration "overtakes" the CO2 fertilisation of NPP| triggering a release of similar to 70 GtC from terrestrial ecosystems over similar to 100 years. When the effects of temperature on photosynthesis| respiration and soil respiration are removed| peak levels of CO2 are reduced by similar to 100 ppmv and peak temperature by similar to0.5 K. Distinguishing separate soil carbon pools with different residence times does not significantly alter the timing of the switch to a land carbon source or its effect on peak CO2| but it causes the source to persist for longer. If forest re-growth or nitrogen deposition are assumed to contribute to the current land carbon sink| this implies a weaker CO2 fertilisation effect on photosynthesis and generates a larger future carbon source. Peak CO2 levels are also sensitive by about +/- 80 ppmv to upper and lower limits on the temperature responses of photosynthesis| plant respiration and soil respiration. By forcing the model with a range of future emission scenarios it is found that the creation of a significant land carbon source requires rapid warming| exceeding similar to4.5 K| and its magnitude increases with the rate of forcing. The carbon source is greatest for the most rapid burning of the largest reserve of fossil fuel. It is concluded that carbon loss from terrestrial ecosystems may significantly(similar to 10%) amplify global warming under "business as usual" or more extreme scenarios. 3065,2000,5,4,Last Glacial Maximum lacustrine and fluviatile Formations in the Tibesti and other Saharan mountains| and large-scale climatic teleconnections linked to the activity of the Subtropical Jet Stream,In the mountains of the central Sahara (lat ca. 20 degrees to 22 degreesN| long 16 degrees to 19 degreesE) and particularly in the Tibesti mountains| important lacustrine formations developed during the late Pleistocene| primarily during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Two main phases| separated by a brief regression| intervened between ca. 20|000 and 15|500 BP| and between 15|000 and 12|500 BP. Pollen analyses were carried out on four samples of this formation. The high lacustrine levels were associated to both important precipitations and a reduced evaporation linked to lower temperatures. Similar lacustrine deposits were found in the Djebel Marra in the south of the Sahara. In the mountains of the central and eastern Sahara| during the same period and until the middle Holocene| the "Middle Terrace" Formation was deposited in the river valleys of the Tibesti| Hoggar| Air and the Red Sea Hills. Since the southern headwaters of the Nile were dry from ca. 20|000 to 12|500 BP| the fluviatile sediments deposited in the Nile valley in Nubia may have resulted almost entirely from the numerous wadis flowing from the Red Sea Hills. The rainfalls which fed these lacustrine and fluviatile formations were related to the Tropical Depressions which are formed in the southern part of the westerlies and are linked to the activity of the Subtropical Jet Stream (STJ)| whose path remained over the central Sahara from 20|000 BP to the early Holocene. In the Rocky Mountains of the western US| the palaeolakes Lahontan and Bonneville were very large during the LGM and the main fluctuations exhibit similar chronology to that of the Saharan mountains. Broecker [Broecker| W.S.| 1994. Massive iceberg discharges as triggers for global climate change. Nature 372| 421-424] estimates that these two large U.S. wet events between ca. 20|000-15|500 BP and ca. 15|000-12|500 BP may have been an indirect result of two large ice surges in the North Atlantic| related to Heinrich layers 1 and 2. We can assume| however| that the similar climatic variation of the Rocky Mountains and the central and eastern Saharan mountains was also a result of the activity of the STJ all along its path| which marks the boundary between the polar and tropical circulations. STJ activity can apparently produce long-distance climatic teleconnections. During the LGM similar teleconnections also existed in the Southern Hemisphere between South Africa and Australia. The Tropical Depressions result from the interaction of polar troughs and the influx of humid equatorial air forming transversal cloud bands. The large increase in the intensity of atmospheric circulation during the LGM was responsible for a large increase in Tropical Depressions in both hemispheres. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V| All rights reserved. 5340,2000,2,3,Late Quaternary paleogeography and evolution of arctic breeding waders,This review Links published data on mitochondrial DNA phylogeography of three wader species breeding in the Arctic to the availability of suitable breeding habitat during the past 250 000 years. We argue that the breeding ranges of arctic waders were most restricted in size during warm phases in the earth's climate (interglacials)| resulting in population bottlenecks in species breeding in the high arctic zone| such as Red Knot Calidris canutus and Ruddy Turnstone Arenaria interpres| and population contraction and the initiation of genetic divergence in low arctic species| such as Dunlin Calidris alpina. When the climate cooled| all species could spread over larger areas. However| large ice-sheets fragmented tundra habitat| which resulted in more differentiation. Subspecies of Dunlin that became isolated during or before the last glacial period are genetically distinct| while those that originated after the glacial cannot be distinguished using mitochondrial DNA. The sensitivity of waders breeding in the high Arctic to increases in global temperature raises concerns over the effect of possible global warming due to anthropogenic factors on these species. 5230,2000,3,4,Legume green manure as partial fallow replacement in semiarid Saskatchewan: Effect on carbon fluxes,Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations| largely due to burning of fossil fuels| may accentuate the risk of global warming. Scientists are optimistic that with appropriate management soils can function as sinks for C and contribute to CO2 abatement strategies. The objective of this study was to determine if soil C can be increased using an annual legume green manure (GM) as partial fallow replacement in a fallow-wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-wheat (F-W-W) rotation in the Brown soil zone of Saskatchewan. In 1995 and 1996 we measured soil C fluxes in all phases of F-WW and GM-W-W rotations| which were two of the treatments in an experiment initiated in 1987 on a medium-textured Orthic Brown Chernozem. The GM| Indianhead black lentil (Lens culinaris Medikus) was estimated to add 1800 and 1400 kg C ha(-1) in 1995 and 1996| respectively. Annual inputs of C in residues of the wheat crops were two to three times those of GM. Comparison of CO2 emissions from GM with those from the fallow phase of the F-W-W system suggested that GM largely decomposed in the interval between incorporation (mid-July) and freeze-up in fall. Fluxes of CO2 from the wheat phases of GM-W-W closely matched those from the corresponding phases of F-W-W| confirming that there was little carryover of undecomposed GM to the following growing season. Our results suggest that| in a 3-yr rotation| partial fallow replacement with legume GM may have only a minor impact on C sequestration because the increase in C inputs is relatively small (similar to 25% in this study) and GM decomposes rapidly in the soil due to its narrow C:N ratio (12-13). Green manuring may| however| play a more significant role in enhancing soil C levels in a F-W system| where relatively large increases in C inputs could be achieved using currently-available legume species.
5361,2000,3,4,Lessons from utility conservation programs,This paper considers the design| incentives and effectiveness of U.S. demand side management (DSM) programs and tries to explain why this ambitious| almost unanimously embraced initiative failed. Problems on the demand side result from consumers' private information that implies that substantial principal-agent slippage must accompany any conservation incentive the utility offers to the consumer. Moreover| the regulatory incentives induce the American utility to select inefficient programs. Therefore| the utility has little to gain from deterring such strategic reactions and cheating by consumers. As a consequence| the reported conservation exists largely on paper bur not in reality. This ex-post assessment is important for two reasons. First| European countries (Scandinavia| Germany| Austria and others) have been eager to repeat this American regulatory 'success'. Second| the problems addressed in this paper would apply to another round of conservation programs induced by the concern about global warming. 5179,2000,4,3,Li+ ion affinities of global-warming perfluorocarbons,Density functional theory studies were performed for the first time to obtain the Li+ ion affinities of various perfluorocarbons (PFCs) that cause global-warming. Becke's three-parameter hybrid density functional| B3LYP combined with 6-31G(d)| 6-311+G(2d)| and 6-311+G(3df) basis sets were utilized for this purpose. We present optimized geometries of PFC-Li+ ion complexes at B3LYP/6-311+G(2d) level. The frequencies obtained at the same level were used to verify all the optimized geometries are minima. The following PFCs-CF4| CHF3| CH2F2| CH3F| C2F6| C4F8| with SF6-were considered in the present study. The calculated Lif affinities for CF4| CHF3| CH2F2| CH3F| C2F6| C4F8| and SF6 are 12.31| 19.64| 26.84| 30.10| 17.20| 21.09| and 16.92 kcal/mol| respectively at B3LYP/6-311+G(3df) after zero-point energy and thermal energy corrections. The large Li+ affinities indicate the validity of our proposed Li+ ion attachment mass spectrometry to quantify the emission of these greenhouse gases from semiconductor industries. Complex geometries were obtained and the ion-molecular bonding nature was discussed on the basis of atomic charge| electron density rho| and its Laplacian. 5286,2000,3,4,Life cycle assessment and economical evaluation of superconducting magnetic energy storage systems in a power system,In recent years| the introduction of superconducting magnetic energy storage systems (SMES) into a power system is drawing considerable research effort because of their high efficiency rate and large storage capacity characteristics. In this paper| the introduction of SMES into a power system and its effects on energy and on environmental issues are addressed. The analysis results show that the introduction of SMES can considerably cut down CO2 emissions without increasing the production cost if it substitutes for the operation of thermal plants during peak load period. However| to achieve this| nuclear plants are also needed for charging purposes. Thus| an algorithm to find the best generation mix| subject to CO2 emissions constraints and nuclear plant introduction constraints| is proposed. The inclusion of nuclear plant constraints increases the coal consumption| hence CO2 emissions. Nevertheless| in most of the analyzed cases| the introduction of SMES could attain important cost savings and environmental conservation. (C) 2000 Scripta Technica. 5219,2000,3,4,Life cycle assessment of a telecommunications exchange,This paper describes a comparative life cycle assessment (LCA) of a new Business Communication 10 (BC 10) and an old Business Communication 8 (BC 8) model of the private branch exchange Modular Digital 110 (MD 110)| designed and sold by Ericsson Enterprise AB (EE) and produced by Flextronics| in this case for the European Union (EU) market. LCA is a technique for assessing the environmental aspects and potential impact associated with a product's whole life cycle from the "cradle to grave". The study meets the requirements of the standards International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO) 14040:1997 English (E)| ISO 14041:1998 E and the draft standards ISO/Draft International Standard (DIS) 14042 and ISO/DIS 14043 and was critically reviewed by Henrik Wenzel| Instituttet for ProduktUdvikling (The Institute for Product Development| IPU) in Denmark. The modelling of the system includes manufacturing (hardware and EE's organisation)| use stage (electricity consumption)| end-of-life (recycling processes) and transports. Electronic devices axe modelled in depth (16 groups of components) and data from over 40 suppliers have been collected. EE's organisation (development| marketing & sales| supply| installation| service and maintenance) is modelled for the use of offices and business travelling. The following main conclusions of the project are based on results for potential contributions to the environmental impact categories acidification| global warming and eutrophication| which were chosen to be the most relevant. The environmental impact improvements of the new model compared to the old are approximately 10%| and the uncertainty of the results is judged to be smaller than the difference between the systems. The use stage and the manufacturing stage give the largest impacts| both for the new and the old model. In the manufacturing stage| the hardware production clearly dominates. EE's organisation is secondly most important and hardware transport is least important. This is due to more environmental load from service and business travelling in the organisation than environmental load arising from the distribution of the product. The results predominantly reflect energy use| whereas toxicological aspects could not be reliably assessed due to lack of data and reliable methods and needs separate attention. The technology improvements shown for BC 10 compared to BC 8 only describe design improvements made by EE| and do not take into account potential technology production improvements made by component suppliers. 5260,2000,3,3,Life cycle engineering case study: Automobile fender designs,Beginning with the goal and scope definition five different fender designs using steel| aluminum| PP/EPDM| PC/PBT and PPO/PA are described and the boundary conditions set. This exemplary case study demonstrates the general approach and beneficial uses of life cycle assessment and life cycle engineering. The inventory of the fenders shows that the steel design has advantages in terms of lower energy consumption during production. However| when the utilization phase of the fenders is considered| the overall energy consumption of the PP/EPDM fender is smaller due to the slight weight of the this polymer design. Concerning the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA)| the global warming potential of the PP/EPDM design is the smallest of all the fender materials even during the production of the fenders. The inventory analysis shows that the utilization phase of automotive parts is dominated by fuel consumption and related emissions like CO2. Nevertheless the LCIA shows that some impacts are mainly determined in the production phase. For example| the global warming potential of nitrous oxide (N2O) released during PPO/PA material production cannot be compensated for the lower energy demand (and also lower CO2 emissions) during the utilization phase. Economic considerations are also discussed. As a parameter| the cost of parts was chosen. Parts costs depend on material costs| labor costs and other variable costs. In addition| the fixed costs for machines and tools were considered. Steel fenders have the smallest production costs| followed by the PP/EPDM design. Finally| in an overall valuation of the compared fender designs the best design considering primary energy demand| global warming potential| and part costs was investigated. In terms of the specified criteria| the PP/EPDM fender is the best design| however| the results lead to a variety of different conclusions. 5212,2000,3,4,Life-cycle analysis of alternative automobile fuel/propulsion technologies,We examine the economic and environmental implications of the fuels and propulsion technologies that will be available over the next two decades for powering a large proportion of the light duty fleet (cars and light trucks). Since R&D change is rapid| we treat the uncertainty about future technologies using bounding calculations. A lifecycle perspective is used to analyze fossil fuels [conventional unleaded and reformulated gasolines| low sulfur reformulated diesel| and compressed natural gas (CNG)]| ethanol from biomass| and electricity together with current and advanced internal combustion engines (ICE| indirect (port) and direct injection| spark| and compression ignited) and electric vehicles (battery-powered| hybrid electric| and fuel cell). Technological advances continue to improve the efficiency and environmental performance of ICE automobiles powered by low sulfur fossil fuels. Absent a doubling of petroleum prices or stringent regulation [due| for example| to intense concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions]| ICE using fossil fuels will dominate the market for the next two decades. CNG cars have low emissions| including GHG| but must be redesigned to store enough CNG to achieve the current range. Battery powered cars have limited range and are expensive| and the life-cycle of battery components leads to discharges of toxic materials. Although both hybrid and fuel cell vehicles promise better fuel economy and lower emissions| in the near term these do not justify their higher costs. If global warming becomes a major concern| CNG offers carbon dioxide emission reductions of up to 30%| and bioethanol could provide a fuel with no net carbon dioxide emissions| although the bioethanol price would be more than twice current petroleum prices. 5211,2000,2,4,Low-molecular-weight organoiodine and organobromine compounds released by polar macroalgae - The influence of abiotic factors,The influence of temperature| light| salinity and nutrient availability on the release of volatile halogenated hydrocarbons was investigated in the Antarctic red macroalgal species Gymnogongrus antarcticus Skottsberg. Compared to standard culture condition| an increase in the release rates of iodocompounds was generally found for the exposure of the alga to altered environmental conditions. Macroalgae exhibited higher release rates after adaptation for two months to the changed factors| than after short-term exposure. Monitoring the release rates during a 24 h incubation period (8.25 h light| 15.75 h darkness) showed that changes between light and dark periods had no influence on the release of volatile halocarbons. Compounds like bromoform and 1-iodobutane exhibited constant release rates during the 24 h period. The formation mechanisms and biological role of volatile organohalogens are discussed. Although marine macroalgae are not considered to be the major source of biogenically-produced volatile organohalogens| they contribute significantly to the bromine and iodine cycles in the environment. Under possible environmental changes like global warming and uncontrolled entrophication of the oceans their significance may be increase. 5147,2000,2,4,Magnitude and timing of annual maximum floods: Trends and large-scale climatic associations for the Blacksmith Fork River| Utah,The magnitude and timing of spring snowmelt floods reflects seasonal snow accumulation and spring temperature patterns. Consequently| interannual variations in regions such as the intermountain West| with snowmelt annual maximum floods| may be related to low-frequency variations in winter/spring large-scale climate variability. Changes in the seasonality of basin precipitation and temperature consequent to slow changes in the baseline climate state (e.g.| owing to natural climate variations and/or potential global warming trends) may have significant impacts on such floods. A case study of the Blacksmith Fork River in northern Utah that explores such a hypothesis is presented here. Trends and associations in the magnitude and timing of annual maximum floods are documented| their impact on time-varying estimates of the 100 year flood is assessed| and relationships with known large-scale| quasi-oscillatory patterns of climate variability are explored. Evidence for structured low-frequency variation in flood timing and magnitude and its relation to winter/spring precipitation and temperature and to tropical (EI Nino-Southern Oscillation) and extratropical (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Pacific climate precursors is presented. Mechanisms for these ocean-atmosphere teleconnections to basin precipitation| temperature| and flood potential are discussed. 5359,2000,5,4,Mammalian responses to Middle Holocene climatic change in the Great Basin of the western United States,In spite of decades of intense research directed toward understanding the climates and ecology of the Great Basin (western United States) during the past 10|000 years| the responses of mammals to the extreme aridity of the Middle Holocene (c. 8000-5000 years ago) in this region have been poorly understood. Using a well-dated small mammal sequence from Homestead Cave| north-central Utah| I show that the Middle Holocene small mammal faunas of this area underwent a decrease in species richness and evenness| driven largely by a series of local extinctions and near-extinctions coupled with a dramatic increase in the abundance of taxa well-adapted to xeric conditions. At the end of this period| some taxa that require relatively mesic habitats began to increase in abundance immediately| others did not rebound in abundance until several thousand years later| while still others have not returned at all. This suite of responses has been difficult to detect because climatic change at the beginning of the Middle Holocene was so much more substantial than that which occurred toward its end. 5252,2000,4,4,Managing uncertainty in climate change projections - Issues for impact assessment - An editorial comment,Climate change projection is the term the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) uses for model estimates of future climate. In that report| projections are presented in two forms: as single model scenarios and as projected ranges of uncertainty. In climate studies| scenarios are commonly regarded as being plausible| but have no further probability attached. Projected ranges of uncertainty can have probabilities attached to the range and within the range| so are more likely to occur than individual scenarios. However| as there is significant remaining uncertainty beyond the projected range| such projections cannot be regarded as forecasts. An appropriate terminology is required to communicate this distinction. The sources of uncertainty in projected ranges of global temperature to 2100 are analysed by Visser et al. (2000)| who recommend that ail major sources of uncertainty be incorporated into global warming projections. This will expand its projected range beyond that of the IPCC SAR. Further sources of uncertainties are contained within projections of regional climate. Several strategies that aim to manage that uncertainty are described. Uncertainty can also be managed where it is unquantifiable. An example is rapid climate change| where discarding the term climate 'surprises' in favour of more precise terminology to aid in identifying possible adaptation strategies| is recommended. 5191,2000,2,4,Mass mortality of marine invertebrates: an unprecedented event in the Northwestern Mediterranean.,An unprecedented mass mortality event has been observed at the end of the summer 1999 along the coasts of Provence (France) and Ligury (Italy). This event has severely affected a wide array of sessile filter-feeder invertebrates from hard-substratum communities| such as sponges (particularly the keratose sponges Hipposongia and Spongia)| cnidarians (particularly the anthozoans Corallium| Paramuricea| Eunicella and Cladocora)| bivalves| ascidians and bryozoans. Along the Provence coasts| the outbreak spread from east to west. Exceptionally high and constant temperatures of the whole water column (23-24 degreesC| for over one month| down to 40 m) could have determined an environmental context favourable to the mass mortality event. Like the thermal anomaly| the mortality is limited in depth. However| rye cannot ascertain whether temperature had a direct effect on organisms or acted in synergy with a latent and/or waterborne agent (microbiological or chemical). Taking into account the global warming context in the NW-Mediterranean| monitoring programs of physical-chemical parameters and vulnerable populations should rapidly be set up. (C) 2000 Academie des sciences/Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. 3148,2000,2,4,Meteorological forcing of plankton dynamics in a large and deep continental European lake,The timing of various plankton successional events in Lake Constance was tightly coupled to a large-scale meteorological phenomenon| the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A causal chain of meteorological| hydrological| and ecological processes connected the NAO as well as winter and early spring meteorological conditions to planktonic events in summer leading to a remarkable memory of climatic effects lasting over almost half a year. The response of Daphnia to meteorological forcing was most probably a direct effect of altered water temperatures on daphnid growth and was not mediated by changes in phytoplankton concentrations. High spring water temperatures during "high-NAO years" enabled high population growth rates| resulting in a high daphnid biomass as early as May. Hence| a critical Daphnia biomass to suppress phytoplankton was reached earlier in high-NAG years yielding an early and longer-lasting clear-water phase. Finally| an earlier summer decline of Daphnia produced in a negative relationship between Daphnia biomass in July and the NAG. Meteorological forcing of the seasonal plankton dynamics in Lake Constance included simple temporal shifts of processes and successional events| but also complex changes in the relative importance of different mechanisms. Since Daphnia plays an important role in plankton succession| a thorough understanding of the regulation of its population dynamics provides the key for predictions of the response of freshwater planktonic food webs to global climate change. 5272,2000,3,4,Methane production by ruminants: its contribution to global warming,The aim of this paper is to review the role of methane in the global warming scenario and to examine the contribution to atmospheric methane made by enteric fermentation| mainly by ruminants. Agricultural emissions of methane in the EU-15 have recently been estimated at 10.2 million tonnes per year and represent the greatest source. Of these| approximately two-thirds come from enteric fermentation and one-third from livestock manure. Fermentation of feeds in the rumen is the largest source of methane from enteric fermentation and this paper considers in detail the reasons for| and the consequences of| the fact that the molar percentage of the different volatile fatty acids produced during fermentation influences the production of methane in the rumen. Acetate and butyrate promote methane production while propionate formation can be considered as a competitive pathway for hydrogen use in the rumen. The many alternative approaches to reducing methane are considered| both in terms of reduction per animal and reduction per unit of animal product. It was concluded that the most promising areas for future research for reducing methanogenesis are the development of new products/delivery systems for anti-methanogenic compounds or alternative electron accepters in the rumen and reduction in protozoal numbers in the rumen. It is also stressed that the reason ruminants are so important to mankind is that much of the world's biomass is rich in fibre. They can convert this into high quality protein sources (i.e. meat and milk) for human consumption and this will need to be balanced against the concomitant production of methane. 5165,2000,4,4,Methane transport capacity of rice plants. I. Influence of methane concentration and growth stage analyzed with an automated measuring system,A major portion (60-90%) of the methane (CH4) emitted from rice fields to the atmosphere is transported through the aerenchyma of the rice plants. However| a rapid and accurate method to study the CH4 transport capacity (MTC) of rice plants is not available. We developed a gas sampling and analytical device based on a closed two-compartment chamber technique and analyzed the enrichment of the CH4 mixing ratio inside the shoot compartment of cylindrical cuvettes enclosing individual rice plants under ambient conditions. The computer-controlled analytical system consists of a gas chromatograph (GC) and a pressure-controlled autosampler for eight cuvettes (seven for plants and one for CH4-calibration gas). The system automates closure and opening of plant cuvettes using pneumatic pressure| air sample collection and injection into the GC| and CH4 analysis. It minimizes sources of error during air sampling by continuously mixing headspace air of each cuvette| maintaining pressure and composition of the headspace inside the cuvettes| purging the dead volumes between the sampler induction tube and GC| and running a reference CH4-calibration gas sample in each cycle. Tests showed that the automated system is a useful tool for accurate sampling of headspace air of cylindrical cuvettes enclosing individual rice plants and enables rapid and accurate fully automated analysis of CH4 in the headspace air samples. A linear relationship was obtained between CH4 transported by rice plants of two cultivars (IR72| a high-yielding dwarf| and Dular| a traditional tall cultivar) and concentration of CH4 up to 7|500 ppm used for purging the nutrient culture solution surrounding the roots in the root compartment of the chamber. Further increase in CH4 emission by shoots was not observed at 10|000 ppm CH4 concentration in the root compartment of the chamber. The MTC of IR72 was measured at six development stages; it was lowest at seedling stage| increasing gradually until panicle initiation. There was no further change at flowering| but a marked decrease at maturity was noted. These results suggest that the plants have 45-246% greater potential to transport CH4 than the highest CH4 emission rates reported under field conditions| and plants would not emit CH4 at early growth and at a reduced rate close to ripening. 5166,2000,3,4,Methane transport capacity of rice plants. II. Variations among different rice cultivars and relationship with morphological characteristics,Of the total methane (CH4) emitted from a rice field during the growing season 60-90% is emitted through the rice plants. We determined the methane transport capacity (MTC) of rice plants at different physiological growth stages using an automatic measuring system under greenhouse conditions. A total of 12 cultivars (10 inbred varieties and 2 hybrids) were studied in sets of two experiments and was distinguished into three groups according to the patterns of MTC development. MTC is generally increasing from seedling stage to panicle initiation (PI)| but differs in the development from PI to maturity. While the hybrid showed a gradual increase in MTC| the inbred cultivars showed either minor changes in MTC or a drastic decrease from flowering to maturity. Among tall cultivars| Dular showed the highest MTC| followed by B40; the lowest MTC was found in Intan. High-yielding dwarf cultivars showed MTC in the descending order of IR72 > IR52 > IR64 > PSBRc 20. New plant type cultivars showed very low MTC with IR65600 exhibiting the smallest MTC at PI| flowering| and maturity. Hybrids (Magat and APHR 2) showed the largest MTC that continued to increased with plant growth. The MTC patterns were attributed to growth parameters and the development of morphological characteristics of the aerenchyma. These results suggest that in tall| dwarf| and NPT cultivars| increase in root or aboveground biomass during initial growth determines a corresponding increase in MTC. Once aerenchyma has fully developed| further increase in plant biomass would not influence MTC. However| in the case of hybrids| a positive relationship of MTC with root + shoot biomass (r = 0.672| p greater than or equal to 0.05) and a total plant biomass including grain (r = 0.849| p greater than or equal to 0.01) indicate continuous development of aerenchyma with plant growth| resulting in enhanced MTC. In all cultivars| tiller number| but not height| was linearly related to MTC| indicating that the number of outlets/channels rather than plant size/biomass determines the transport of CH4. These results clearly demonstrate that rice cultivars differ significantly in MTC. Therefore| the use of high-yielding cultivars with low MTC (for example| PSBRc 20| IR65598| and IR65600) could be an economically feasible| environmentally sound| and promising approach to mitigate CH4 emissions from rice fields. 5214,2000,5,4,Microfloral diversity patterns of the late Paleocene-Eocene interval in Colombia| northern South America,The late Paleocene-early Eocene interval was characterized by a long period of global warming that culminated with the highest temperatures of the Tertiary. This interval was also associated with plant extinctions and a subsequent increase in plant diversity in temperate latitudes. However| tropical regions remain largely unknown. We compare the microfloral diversity of the late Paleocene with the fate early to middle Eocene in flood plain| coastal plain| and estuarine facies of a section in the Colombian eastern Andes. Several techniques such as range-through method| rarefaction| bootstrap| detrended correspondence analysis| and Simpson index were used to assess the significance of the diversity pattern observed throughout the section. The microfloral record indicates a distinct| diverse Paleocene flora declining toward the end of the Paleocene| being replaced by a different and much more diverse Eocene flora. It is uncertain| however| how these floral changes correlate with the latest Paleocene thermal maximum and Eocene thermal maximum events. 3146,2000,5,4,Middle- and late-Wisconsin paleobotanic and paleoclimatic records from the southern Colorado Plateau| USA,The Colorado Plateau is a distinct physiographic province in western North America| which presently straddles the transition between summer-wet and summer-dry climatic regimes to the south and northwest| respectively. In addition to climate| the diversity of environments and plant communities on the Colorado Plateau has resulted from extreme topographic diversity. Desert lowlands as low as 360 m elevation are surrounded by forested plateaus| and even higher peaks greater than 3800 m elevation. This environmental diversity provides a unique opportunity to study the history of biotic communities in an arid region of North America. Although the Colorado Plateau harbours numerous potential sites| the paleoecological record of the Plateau is poorly known. Potential deposits for analysis include packrat middens| alluvial and cave sites at lower elevations| and lake| bog and wetland sites at higher elevations. Forty-six sites have been analysed across the nearly 337|000 km(2) region| of which 27 contain records that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (IS) 2 data| with IS 3 information coming from only 12 sites. Most IS 2 and 3 sites are clustered along the lowland regions of the Colorado River corridor and the uplands of the Mogollon Rim area. We compiled selected data from long paleoecological records to examine patterns of vegetation and climate change across the southern Colorado Plateau for the middle and late Wisconsin. During the middle Wisconsin| mixed conifers covered middle-elevations presently dominated by ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)| and juniper (Juniperus) woodland grew at elevations today covered by blackbrush (Coleogyne) and sagebrush (Artemisia) desert. During the late Wisconsin| boreal conifers| primarily Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii)| replaced the mixed conifer association. Estimates of mean annual temperatures (MAT) during IS 3 were at least 3-4 degrees C cooler than today| whereas IS 2 MAT estimates are at least 5 degrees C colder. Our investigation of millennial-scale climatic variability within the region provided equivocal results. The packrat midden sequence could not distinguish vegetation changes that might be associated with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. From the lake records| however| many Heinrich events were associated with generally drier intervals| often with elevated sagebrush pollen concentrations. Future paleoecological investigations should concentrate on the northern Colorado Plateau| as well as the eastern and western margins. Additional sites| along with closer-spaced sampling in regions already studied| will be important in determining the history of important climatic phenomena such as the timings of the Arizona monsoon. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5240,2000,5,3,Millennial-scale rhythms in peatlands in the western interior of Canada and in the global carbon cycle,A(1) natural similar to 1450-yr global Holocene climate periodicity underlies a portion of the present global warming trend. Calibrated basal radiocarbon dates from 71 paludified peatlands across the western interior of Canada demonstrate that this periodicity regulated western Canadian peatland initiation. Peatlands| the largest terrestrial carbon pool| and their carbon-budgets are sensitive to hydrological fluctuations. The global atmospheric carbon-budget experienced corresponding fluctuations| as recorded in the Holocene atmospheric CO2 record from Taylor Dome| Antarctica. While the climate changes following this similar to 1450-yr periodicity were sufficient to affect the global carbon-budget| the resultant atmospheric CO2 fluctuations did not cause a runaway climate-CO2 feedback loop| This demonstrates that global carbon-budgets are sensitive to small climatic fluctuations; thus international agreements on greenhouse gasses need to take into account the natural carbon-budget imbalance of regions with large climatically sensitive carbon pools. (C) 2000 University of Washington. 3122,2000,4,4,Modeling terrestrial hydrological systems at the continental scale: Testing the accuracy of an atmospheric GCM,A global hydrological routing algorithm (HYDRA) that simulates seasonal river discharge and changes in surface water level on a spatial resolution of 5' long x 5' lat is presented. The model is based an previous work by M. T. Coe and incorporates major improvements from that work including 1) the ability to simulate monthly and seasonal variations in discharge and lake and wetland level| and 2) direct representation of man-made dams and reservoirs. HYDRA requires as input daily or monthly mean averages of runoff| precipitation| and evaporation either from GCM output or observations. As an example of the utility of HYDRA in evaluating GCM simulations| the model is forced with monthly mean estimates of runoff from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset. The simulated river discharge clearly shows that although the NCEP runoff captures the large-scale features of the observed terrestrial hydrology| there are numerous differences in detail from observations. The simulated mean annual discharge is within +/-20% at only 13 of 90 fluvial gauging stations compared. In general| the discharge is overestimated for most of the northern high latitudes| midcontinental North America| eastern Europe. central and eastern Asia| India| and northern Africa. Only in western Europe and eastern North America is the discharge consistently underestimated. Although there appears to be a need for improved simulation of land surface physics in the NCEP product and parameterization of how velocities within HYDRA| the timing of the monthly mean discharge is in fair agreement with the observations. Including lakes within HYDRA reduces the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of discharge and the magnitude of the annual mean discharge of the St. Lawrence River system| in qualitative agreement with the observations. In addition| including the wetlands of the Sudd reduces the magnitude of the simulated annual discharge of the Nile River to values in better agreement with observations. Finally| the impact of man-made dams and their reservoirs on the magnitude of monthly mean discharge can be explicitly included within HYDRA. As an example| including darns and reservoirs on the Parana River improves the agreement of the simulated mean monthly discharge with observations by reducing the amplitude of the seasonal cycle to values in good agreement with the observations. The results of this study show that| although improvements can be obtained through better representations of flow velocities and more accurate digital elevation models. HYDRA can be a powerful tool for diagnosing simulated terrestrial hydrology and investigations of global climate change. 3064,2000,2,3,Modelling the vegetation of China using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3,1 We model the potential vegetation and annual net primary production (NPP) of China on a 10' grid under the present climate using the processed-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3. The simulated distribution of the vegetation was in general in good agreement with the potential natural vegetation based on a numerical comparison between the two maps using the DeltaV statistic (DeltaV = 0.23). Predicted and measured NPP were also similar| especially in terms of biome-averages. 2 A coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model including sulphate aerosols was used to drive a double greenhouse gas scenario for 2070-2099. Simulated vegetation maps from two different CO2 scenarios (340 and 500 p.p.m.v.) were compared to the baseline biome map using DeltaV. Climate change alone produced a large reduction in desert| alpine tundra and ice/polar desert| and a general pole-ward shift of the boreal| temperate deciduous| warm-temperate evergreen and tropical forest belts| a decline in boreal deciduous forest and the appearance of tropical deciduous forest. The inclusion of CO2 physiological effects led to a marked decrease in moist savannas and desert| a general decrease for grasslands and steppe| and disappearance of xeric woodland/scrub. Temperate deciduous broadleaved forest| however| shifted north to occupy nearly half the area of previously temperate mixed forest. 3 The impact of climate change and increasing CO2 is not only on biogeography| but also on potential NPP. The NPP values for most of the biomes in the scenarios with CO2 set at 340 p.p.m.v. and 500 p.p.m.v. are greater than those under the current climate| except for the temperate deciduous forest| temperate evergreen broadleaved forest| tropical rain forest| tropical seasonal forest| and xeric woodland/scrub biomes. Total vegetation and total carbon is simulated to increase significantly in the future climate scenario| both with and without the CO2 direct physiological effect. 4 Our results show that the global process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3 can be used successfully at a regional scale. 5251,2000,3,3,Multiphase CO2 flow| transport and sequestration in the Powder River Basin| Wyoming| USA,Sequestration of anthropogenic "greenhouse gases" such as CO2 is proposed as a means of reducing global warming. We tested the possibility of sequestering CO2 in regional-scale aquifers in sedimentary basins| including residence time in possible aquifer storage sites and migration rates away from such sites. The example basin studied is the Powder River Basin| Wyoming. We calibrated regional scale rock properties in the Powder River Basin using surface heat flow observations. We determined advection by a regional-scale groundwater flow system in the basin can explain anomalously high surface heat flow not explained by conduction alone. Our study suggests that regional scale sedimentary basin aquifers are viable candidates for CO2 sequestration for time-scales of 10(3) years. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5148,2000,4,4,Natural gas and gas hydrate accumulations within permafrost in Russia,Sudden natural gas blowouts from within the permafrost sections in West and East Siberia and some results of permafrost core samples study are presented. Topics covered include gas geochemistry| blowout intensity (gas flow rate)| depth interval and permafrost rock peculiarities in places of these gas releases. Although microbial gas is widespread within permafrost| thermogenic gas can also occasionally migrate from deep gas reservoirs along faults| or be present locally in areas of gas reservoirs within the permafrost section. Gas can be preserved within permafrost in a free state as well as in hydrate form throughout the permafrost zone and be a potential threat to climate in the course of global warming. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3151,2000,2,4,Need and opportunity for a North American caribou knowledge cooperative,The importance of migratory caribou (Rangifer tarandus) to northerners| the increasing pressure to extract non-living resources| and predicted global climate change have led researchers| managers and resource users alike to focus on how to improve our knowledge of this unique northern ungulate. Unprecedented threats to caribou sustainability| along with the increasingly acknowledged value of indigenous hunters' contribution to caribou research| pose the additional challenge to innovate research methods that accommodate differing cultural perspectives and facilitate communication among groups. This paper surveys the state of scientific knowledge of the eleven major northern mainland herds of North America. We recommend an approach to improve our working knowledge of barren-ground caribou in order to assess better future impacts. The transfer of knowledge gained from years of research and indigenous experience on many aspects of caribou ecology should be evaluated and| where applicable| transferred to herds with more modest databases. The establishment of a North American Caribou Monitoring and Assessment System| based on a synthesis of local knowledge and research-based science| is recommended as a tool for improved communication and collective learning. 5317,2000,3,2,Neoclasic economic theory and environmental policy instruments,Climate changes| due to global warming by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases in a higher rate than their natural remotion from the atmosphere| ask for adopting effective policies to mitigate those emissions. An important aspect about the future of such policies must be increasing the mitigation action cost effectiveness. In these lines| the object of this article is to identify environment policy instruments applied in the international level| which may grant a reference to improve local environmental policies in developing countries. Advantages and disadvantages of applying those instruments in some countries are analyzed and some mechanisms and instruments applicable in those realities are discussed. 5305,2000,2,4,Nest-site selection in two eublepharid gecko species with temperature-dependent sex determination and one with genotypic sex determination,At present| most turtles| all crocodilians| and several lizards are known to have temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Due to the dependence of sex determination on incubation temperature| the long-term survival of TSD species may be jeopardized by global climate changes. The current study was designed to assess the degree to which this concern is justified by examining nest-site selection in two species of Pattern II TSD geckos (Eublepharis macularius and Hemitheconyx caudicinctus) and comparing these preferences with those of a species with genotypic sex determination (GSD) (Coleonyx mitratus). Temperature preferences for nest sites were found to be both species-specific and female-specific. While H. caudicinctus females selected a mean nest-site temperature (32.4 degrees) very close to the upper pivotal temperature (32 degrees C) for the species| E. macularius females selected a mean nest-site temperature (28.7 degrees C) well below this species' lower pivotal temperature (30.5 degrees C). Thus| the resultant sex ratios are expected to differ between these two TSD species. Additionally| nest-site temperatures for the GSD species were significantly more variable (SE = +/-0.37) than were temperatures for either of the TSD species (E. macularius SE = +/- 0.10; H. caudicinctus SE = +/-0.17)| thereby further demonstrating temperature preferences within the TSD species. (C) 2000 The Linnean Society of London. 5255,2000,3,4,New "green" heat transfer fluids,A new segregated hydrofluoroether under development has a global warming potential <3% that of comparable perfluorocarbon fluids. With a boiling point of 128 degrees C| this fluid is well suited for use in ion implanters| steppers| etchers| plasma-aided tools| and automated testers. Its heat transfer performance is shown to be superior to that of perfluorinated fluids of similar boiling point. Electrical properties permit its use in all but the most demanding dielectric applications. Material compatibility should permit "drop-in" substitution in well-designed PFC systems. 5193,2000,5,4,New chronology for the late Paleocene thermal maximum and its environmental implications,The late Paleocene thermal maximum (LPTM) is associated with a brief| but intense| interval of global warming and a massive perturbation of the global carbon cycle. We hare developed a new orbital chronology for Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 690 (Weddell Sea| Southern Ocean) by using spectral analysis of high-resolution geochemical records. The LPTM interval spans 11 precessional cycles yielding a duration of 210 to 220 k.y. The delta(13)C anomaly associated with the LPTM has a magnitude of about -2.5 parts per thousand to -3 parts per thousand; we show that about -2 parts per thousand of the excursion occurs within two steps that each were less than 1000 yr in duration| The remainder developed through a series of steps over similar to 52 k.y. The timing of these steps is consistent with a series of nearly catastrophic releases of methane from gas hydrates| punctuated by intervals of relative equilibria between hydrate dissociation and carbon burial. Further| we are able to correlate the records between ODP Sites 690 and 1051 (western North Atlantic) on the scale of 21 k.y. cycles| which demonstrates that the details of the delta(13)C excursion are recognizable between distant sites. Comparison of cycle records at Sites 690 and 1051 suggests that sediment representing the interval similar to 30 k.y. just prior to and at the onset of the LPTM are missing in the latter location. This unconformity probably resulted from slope failure accompanying methane hydrate dissociation within 10 k.y. of the start of the LPTM. 5221,2000,2,4,Nitrogen in Russian bogs,The nitrogen pool in Russian peatlands reaches 4.69 x 10(9) t. Half of this amount is stored in humic substances (mainly| in humic acids) of peat. The nitrogen of relatively stable compounds (mainly| the humin nitrogen) constitutes about 1.8 x 10(9) t. Easily hydrolyzable and mineral nitrogen compounds constitute 9.7 and 1.8% of the total nitrogen pool| respectively. Most of the nitrogen in eutrophic bogs is bound with humic substances| while that of oligotrophic peat is represented by poorly hydrolyzable and nonhydrolyzable forms. The pool of water-soluble nitrogen constitutes 20.3 x 10(6) t| or 0.43% of the total nitrogen reserve. In the case of global warming| eutrophic and mesotrophic bogs can become an important source of ammonia emission to the atmosphere. 5284,2000,2,4,Nitrogen transformations in a forested catchment in southern Norway subjected to elevated temperature and CO2,Model predictions on the response of soil processes to global warming are mostly inferred from small-scale laboratory studies. In this study| a forested catchment in southern Norway was enclosed by a greenhouse and experimentally manipulated by increasing CO2 (+200 mu l l(-1) above ambient) and temperature (+3-5 degrees C). This paper reports on the effects of the climate manipulation on N mineralization and nitrification. We measured net N mineralization and nitrification in a control and treated part of the greenhouse as well as in an uncovered reference catchment in plots dominated by Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull or Vaccinium myrtillus L. Net N mineralization in the 0-10 cm soil layer significantly increased| most likely as a result of increased temperature. The effect was largest in plots dominated by Calluna. Nitrification did not significantly increase. Soil moisture inside the incubated cores was not affected by the climate change treatment. Pre-treatment mineralization was similar inside and outside the enclosure whereas nitrification was higher inside the enclosure. The NH4+ content was significantly lower inside the chamber due to removal of acidifying components from the precipitation and lower inputs of dry deposition. We found however no differences in pH| %C and %N of the LF and H layer and total C and N in the soil cores between the two catchments. Mineralization was generally higher under Vaccinium than under Calluna even though measured soil chemical and physical characteristics were similar. Nitrification was higher under Calluna than under Vaccinium. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5271,2000,3,4,Nitrous oxide emissions from fertilized upland fields in Thailand,Nitrous oxide (N2O) emission from fertilized maize fields was measured using a closed chamber at four experimental sites in Thailand. The average measured N2O flux from unfertilized plots through crop season was 4.16 +/- 1.52| 5.05 +/- 1.65| 5.25 +/- 1.68 and 6.74 +/- 2.95 mu g N2O-N m(-2) h(-1)| at Nakhon Sawan| Phra Phutthabat| Khon Kaen and Chiang Mai| respectively. Increased N2O emissions by the application of nitrogen fertilizer were 0.22-0.44| 0.19-0.38%| 0.12-0.24 and 0.08-0.15% of the applied N| respectively. Compared to other data| N2O emission rate to applied nitrogen was not significantly different between the data of Thailand and the Temperate Zone. 3120,2000,4,4,NLOSS: A mechanistic model of denitrified N2O and N-2 evolution from soil,Soil microbial denitrification is a significant source of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O)| a trace gas important in global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion. In this paper we describe a mechanistic submodel| which is incorporated in the model NLOSS| designed to predict the soil biogenic source and efflux of N2O and N-2 during denitrification| NLOSS simulates transient soil moisture and temperature| decomposition| soil anaerobicity| denitrifying bacterial biomass| rates of soil nitrogen transformations| soil trace-gas transport| and gas efflux to the atmosphere. Uncertainty in predicted N gas effluxes is commuted using a Monte Carlo approach. We test NLOSS's denitrification estimates by comparing predictions with results from a N-15 tracer experiment in a Mexican agricultural system. The model accurately predicted the measured soil moisture and denitrified N2O and N-2 fluxes during the experiment. We also apply NLOSS to compute denitrified N trace-gas speciation curves as a function of soil hydrologic properties and moisture content. These speciation curves will be used in future work to extrapolate the plot-scale modeling results presented here to field and regional estimates of N trace-gas emissions. The results presented here suggest that NLOSS can be used to identify the processes most important for trace-gas losses and to facilitate efforts to scale plot-level modeling results to regional estimates of N trace-gas emissions. 5351,2000,5,4,Numerical modelling of the ice sheet in western Dronning Maud Land| East Antarctica: impacts of present| past and future climates,Time-dependent ice-sheer modelling of a 170 000 km(2) area in western Dronning; Maud Land| Last Antarctica| provided information on the ice sheet's response to sis climate-change scenarios. Another experiment was done to study changes in ice thickness. flow and basal temperature conditions between the present ice configuration and a simulated maximum palaeo-ice sheet. The input to the model included new datasets of bed and surface topography compiled for this study The results of the six climate-change experiments| including a 0.5 degrees C per century global-warming scenario| show that the ice sheet has a robust behaviour with respect to the different climate changes. The maximum change in ice volume was <5% of the initial volume in all climate runs. This is for only relatively short-term climate changes without major changes in global sea level| and also a simulated ice sheet without an ice shelf. The modelled long-term response time of the ice sheet 20 kyr or more. indicates that the ice sheet may still be adjusting tl| the climate change that ended the Last Glacial Maximum. In the maximum palaeo-ice-sheet simulation. with a 5 degrees C climate cooling and the: grounding line located at the continental-shelf margin| ice thickness increased drastically downstream from the Heimefrontfjella mountain range bur remained basically unaffected on the upstream polar plateau. Compared to present conditions| complex changes in basal temperatures were observed. The extent of areas with basal melting increased| for example in the deep trough of the Vest-straumen ice stream. Areas at intermediate elevations in the landscape also experienced increased basal temperatures. with significant areas reaching; the melting point. In contrast high-altitude areas that today are clearly cold-based| such as around Heimefrontfjella and Vestfjella and the Hogisen dome| experienced a 5 10 degrees C decrease in basal temperatures in the palaeo-ice-sheet reconstruction. The results suggest that the alpine landscape within these mountain regions was formed by wet-based local glaciers and ice sheets prior to the late Cenozoic. 5245,2000,3,3,Numerical simulation of infiltration in soil of Australian arid land,It is considered that large-scale afforestation in arid and semi-arid land is one of the most promising countermeasures for fixation of carbon dioxide| which is mainly responsible for the global warming problem. Afforestation of arid land is hindered by water shortages| and requires more effective utilization of limited rainwater. The concept of this study is to evaluate the various countermeasures for constructing water balance system| from different viewpoints of conventional element-technology-oriented measures. In this study| Leonora in Western Australia was selected as a research area| and the infiltration process in the area was analyzed by two kinds of simulation models. Their validity was tested by comparing with the experimental results using glass beads with simple characteristics. It was clearly demonstrated that each model has its own problems. Then we evaluated the infiltration rate of precipitated water into Australian specific soil by the model which showed better approximation results to the experiments with glass beads. As a result| it is suggested that the poor permeability of the soil limits plant growth in the Australian specific area. 5383,2000,4,4,Oceanic hydrates: More questions than answers,From an oil industry standpoint| methane hydrate is known as a major problem because it plugs casing and pipelines. From a media standpoint| hydrates provide an almost inexhaustible supply of articles concerning greenhouse effects| landslides| global warming and mysterious events such as the loss of aircraft in the "Bermuda Triangle". From a scientific standpoint| they provide much scope for academic research projects. Oceanic hydrates have been recovered in some of the thousands of ODP/Joides boreholes| from which a total of over 250 km of core have been taken. Unfortunately| hydrates dissociate when brought on deck| and few samples were preserved for further analysis. Most of the oceanic hydrates are reported to be of biogenic origin| except where they overlie petroleum reservoirs| as in the Caspian Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The hydrates in the cores are found mostly as dispersed grains or thin laminae. Massive pieces of hydrate| greater than 10cm thick| have been found only at three sites. Downhole logs are unreliable indicates of hydrates due to cave-ins| and in many instances the inferred presence of hydrates depends on indirect evidence| such as seismic reflectors (BSR) or chlorinity changes in pore waters. The oil industry requires much better evidence than this before attributing reserve status to a resource| yet in the case of hydrates| enormous deposits (such as recently declared in New Caledonia) are reported on the strength of no more than uncertain seismic information. The gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) occurs in oceanic sediments over the first few hundred meters below the seabed. In this zone| any methane from organic material| including any seepages from below| is converted into solid hydrate| and is locked in place in the sediments. The origin of the methane is poorly understood| with even its biogenic origin being challenged. Dissolved methane or free gas may precipitate at geological discontinuities such a faults| fractures and lithological boundaries| as well as at water salinity| temperature and pressure interfaces. In the past| the porosity in the GHSZ was thought to be dominantly filled by hydrate| thus providing a seal to gas| at and below the base of the stability zone. However| at the Blake Ridge| ODP Leg 164 found only minor porosity (maximum of about 5%) being filled by hydrate or gas. The recent Leg 172 in the same area failed to find any hydrate at all. A much higher concentration has been indicated in the Japan National Oil Company hydrate borehole in the Nankai Trough| although this is contradicted by other reports. The Bottom Simulating Reflector (BSR) seismic reflector is caused mainly by gas bubbles at the base of the stability zone| which accordingly cannot act as a seal because the porosity is more than 95% filled by water| with the size of the pores and the gas bubbles being further factors. This is one reason why the BSR reflector does not correspond with the hydrate zones| as had been assumed. Cascadia| off Oregon| is one of the best places to investigate hydrates| as they crop out on the seafloor whereas on the Blake Ridge the first 200 m lack hydrates. Prior to 1998| the resources of hydrates were often declared to be much greater than all known fossil fuels (coal| oil and natural gas). Ginsburg (1998) disputed such claims on the grounds that the hydrates are not continuously distributed vertically or horizontally. Mole recently| the USGS (Course 14| AAPG 2000) has drastically reduced its past estimates to a level where it is now claimed that hydrate accumulations may only rival the known reserves of conventional gas. These dispersed hydrate deposits may be better compared with dispersed oil and gas in petroleum systems| which are very much larger than the amounts contained in commercial reservoirs. Many graphs on solubility of methane in water are computed from formulae| being rarely checked by experiments. Measurements in the laboratory seem to differ from field measurements in sediments. The solubility of methane in deep water is but poorly known| as few measurements have been taken| bur it seems to be about a hundred rimes higher than in near surface-water. Methane released in deep ware| is dissolved in water| even when a large amount of methane is released. It cannot accordingly be the cause of any hazards. But little is known about the fate of the deep dissolved methane in upwelling seawater currents. Methane hydrates are less dense than water when on the seafloor down to a certain depth| which is still unknown (2650 m for CO2 hydrate). So| extrusions of hydrate tend to float upwards| disappearing into the seawater. Log measurements in sediments report hydrates being denser than water| but direct measurements are lacking| and it would seem that such sediments are also subject to buoyancy pressure. Surficial pockmarks and mud volcanoes arise from gas expelled from overpressured| underconsolidated sediments - with or without hydrates being present. Progress in understanding oceanic hydrates has not advanced much over the last twenty years because of the poor quality of measurements in soft sediments (cores| samples and logs) and because of the lack of calibration of seismic against a known oceanic hydrate system. The chance of a viable production method being developed is slim because the oceanic hydrates are dispersed and occur in erratic patches. Only national oil companies in Japan and India are actively exploring for them. Future progress may come from the deepwater exploration being undertaken by the oil industry using better tools| but oceanic hydrates seem to be similar in some respects to metallic nodules or gold in seawater-too dispersed to ever prove economic in most places. It is well said that they are a fuel for the future and likely to remain so. 3094,2000,4,4,On the widespread winter fog in Northeastern Pakistan and India,During the last two winters widespread fog frequently occurred in northeastern India and Pakistan| in a region extending over 1500 km. A particularly severe fog episode lasted from midDecember| 1998 to early January| 1999. The fog caused extensive economic damage and disruptions in transport. We determined concentrations of SO42-| NO3-| and selected trace elements at Lahore| Pakistan during and after the fog event by collecting aerosols on Whatman 41 filters every 12 h. SO42- concentrations of up to 100 mu g/m(3) were observed during fog. The SO42-/Se ratios and trace element data suggest a distant source of SO42- aerosols| hundreds of kms away. Lahore was downwind of coal-burning in India during the fog. The high concentrations of SO42- observed suggest a more extensive investigation of the chemistry and transport processes in this region is necessary to delineate emission sources and develop control strategies as there are serious likely effects on human health and economy in a region populated by hundreds of millions of people| and on global climate change through direct;md indirect forcing. 3134,2000,2,4,Organic matter accumulation| peat chemistry| and permafrost melting in peatlands of boreal Alberta,In the discontinuous permafrost zone of boreal western continental Canada| permafrost is limited almost exclusively to ombrotrophic peatlands. Permafrost in peatlands recently has been degrading and continues to degrade at its southern limit across western Canada| with no evidence of regeneration. The melting of permafrost could have dramatic effects on organic matter accumulation| organochemical properties| and nutrient status in peatlands. Our objectives are to quantify differences in peat chemistry (i.e.| concentrations of organic fractions| N| P| and S) and rates of organic matter accumulation over the past 200 years between a site with permafrost| a site with degraded permafrost (internal lawn)| and three sites with no evidence of permafrost since the last glaciation (continental peatlands: two bogs and one poor Fen). Results indicate that pear chemistry may differ according to the presence| absence| or degradation of permafrost. Recent rates of organic matter accumulation follow similar trends over the past 100-200 years in the permafrost and continental bogs; however| net rates of organic matter accumulation are accelerated by 60% in the internal lawn. As decomposition in peatlands is influenced by nutrient limitations and organic matter quality| peat chemistry is likely to be a critical factor in the carbon balance response of boreal peatlands to climate change. 5175,2000,5,4,Paleoecology and its application to fire and vegetation management in Kootenay National Park| British Columbia,High-resolution analysis of macroscopic charcoal and pollen ratios were used to reconstruct a 10|000 yr history of fire and vegetation change around Dog Lake| now in the Montane Spruce biogeoclimatic zone of southeastern British Columbia. Lake sediment charcoal records suggest that fire was more frequent in the early Holocene from 10|000 to 8200 calendar yrs BP| when climate was warmer and drier than today and forest fuels were limited. Fire frequency increased and reached its maximum during the early to mid-Holocene from 8200 to 4000 calendar yrs BP| corresponding to the dry and warm Hypsithermal period in the Rocky Mountains. During the Hypsithermal period forests around Dog Lake were dominated by Pseudotsuga/Larix|Pinus and open meadows of Poaceae that were subject to frequent fire. From 4000 calendar yrs BP to present| fires became less frequent with the onset of cooler and wetter Neoglacial climate and an increase in wet-closed Picea and Abies forests in the valley. Changes in fire frequency are supported by dry-open/wet-closed pollen ratio data indicating that forest type and disturbance regimes vary with changing climate. The fire frequency and forest cover reconstructions from Dog Lake are a first attempt at defining a range of natural variability for Montane Spruce forests in southeastern British Columbia. Fire and vegetation management in Kootenay National Park can now use this century to millennial-scale range of variability to define the context of current forest conditions and potential changes under global warming scenarios. 5194,2000,4,3,Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations,The Department of Energy (DOE) supported Parallel Climate Model (PCM) makes use of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3) and Land Surface Model (LSM) for the atmospheric and land surface components| respectively| the DOE Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) for the ocean component| and the Naval Postgraduate School sea-ice model. The PCM executes on several distributed and shared memory computer systems. The coupling method is similar to that used in the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) in that a flux coupler ties the components together| with interpolations between the different grids of the component models. Flute adjustments are not used in the PCM. The ocean component has 2/3 degrees average horizontal grid spacing with 32 vertical levels and a free surface that allows calculation of sea level changes. Near the equator| the grid spacing is approximately 1/2 degrees in latitude to better capture the ocean equatorial dynamics. The North Pole is rotated over northern North America thus producing resolution smaller than 3/3 degrees in the North Atlantic where the sinking part of the world conveyor circulation largely takes place. Because this ocean model component does not have a computational Feint at the North pole| the Arctic Ocean circulation systems are more realistic and similar to the observed. The elastic viscous plastic sea ice model has a grid spacing of 27 km to represent small-scale features such as ice transport through the Canadian Archipelago and the East Greenland current region. Results from a 300 year present-day coupled climate control simulation are presented| as well as for a transient 1% per year compound CO2 increase experiment which shows a global warming of 1.27 degreesC for a 10 year average at the doubling point of CO2 and 2.89 degreesC at the quadrupling point. There is a gradual warming beyond the doubling and quadrupling points with CO2 held constant. Globally averaged sea level rise at the time of CO2 control simulation are 1% per year transient 1% doubling is approximately 7 cm and at the time of quadrupling it is 23 cm. Some of the regional sea level changes are larger and reflect the adjustments in the temperature| salinity| internal ocean dynamics| surface heat flux| and wind stress on the ocean. A 0.5% per year CO2 increase experiment also was performed showing a global warming of 1.5 degreesC around the time of CO2 doubling and a similar warming pattern to the 1% CO2 per year increase experiment. El Nino and La Nina events in the tropical Pacific show approximately the observed frequency distribution and amplitude| which leads to near observed levels of variability on interannual time scales. 5154,2000,3,3,Peatlands| carbon storage| greenhouse gases| and the Kyoto Protocol: Prospects and significance for Canada,The Kyoto Protocol accepts terrestrial sinks for greenhouse gases (GHGs) as offsets for fossil fuel emissions. Only carbon sequestered in Living biomass from re- and afforestation is presently considered| but the Protocol contains a provision for the possible future inclusion of other land uses and soils. As a result| the possibility of sequestration of carbon in wetlands| and particularly peatlands| is being discussed. Natural peatlands are presently a relatively small sink for CO2 and a large source of CH4: globally| they store between 400 and 500 Gt C. There are large variations among peatlands| but when the "global warming potential" of CH4 is factored in| many peatlands are neither sinks nor sources of GHGs. Some land-use changes may result in peatlands acting as net sinks far GHGs by reducing CH4 emissions and/or increasing CO2 sequestration (e.g.| forest drainage)| while other land uses may result in large losses of CO2| CH4| and N2O (e.g.| agriculture on organic soils| flooding for hydroelectric generation). Other land uses| such as peatland creation and restoration| produce no net change if they are replacing or restoring a previous level of GHG exchange. These are analogous to reforestation of deforested areas. On closer examination| the inclusion of peatlands in a national greenhouse gas strategy as sinks| despite their large role in the terrestrial carbon cycle| may not significantly reduce net greenhouse gas emissons. If the sinks are to be considered| it is reasonable that terrestrial sources associated with all land uses on peatlands also should be considered. If peatlands are not considered explicitly| but soils in forest and agriculture systems are included in the Kyoto Protocol in the future| then those peatlands impacted by these land uses will be incorporated implicitly. 3078,2000,5,4,Periodicity of Holocene climatic variations in the Huguangyan Maar Lake,There exist five primary periods of 2 930| 1 140| 490| 250 and 220 a in the Holocene climatic variations in the Huguangyan Maar Lake| according to the energy-spectrum and filter analyses of high-resolution time sequences (10-15 a) of the sediment dry density. The peak values of the three temperature-decreasing periods with the 2 930 a cycle occur at about 7 300| 4 250 and 1 200 Gal. aBP. There are 7-8 temperature-decreasing periods with the 1 140 a cycle| and the climate fluctuation range is largest in the early Holocene| and reduces gradually in the middle and late Holocene. The millennial-scale climatic change in the Holocene may adjust the global water cycle and the thermohaline circulation intensity through the harmonic tones of the earth's precession cycle| which in turn influences the global climate change. 5339,2000,2,4,Personal protection: The way forward,The perceived need For sunscreens with ever-increasing sun protection factors is unnecessary and leads to more confusion than clarity. Year-round sun protection achieved by the inclusion of ultraviolet (UV) filters in skin care products intended for daily use is not indicated for people living in northern Europe and may| in fact| be potentially harmful. Future needs for sun protection are likely to be influenced more by global warming than ozone depletion| and by the rising trend for overseas holidays to sunny destinations. 5225,2000,3,3,Petroleum industry faces challenge of change in controlling global warming,The Kyoto Protocol| agreed to by more than 160 nations in 1997| represents an enormous challenge to national governments| with vigorous disagreement among the parties regarding the best way to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Some mechanisms for emissions reduction are of concern to the petroleum industry| including joint implementation| the Clean Development Mechanisms| emissions trading| and carbon sinks generated through land use change and forest management. The negotiating objectives of the EU illustrate how proposals and restrictions might impact companies in the industry. Most observers agree that the Kyoto Protocol is not likely to come into effect in its current form| and that only a few countries can hope to achieve their reduction targets because of major economic concerns. Regardless of the protocol's fate| the challenge remains for the industry to exercise its right and obligation to become part of the solution to climate change.
5326,2000,3,4,Photosynthetic production of microalgal biomass in a raceway system under greenhouse conditions in Sendai city,The photosynthetic productivities of the marine microalgae Chlorophyta sp. and freshwater microalgae Chlorella sp. were investigated in a raceway system under greenhouse conditions in Sendai city. The system was constructed with a surface area of 0.986 m(2) and equipped with paddle wheels (8 fins). The semicontinuous batch culture experiment was carried out for 4 months from June to October 1998 in Sendai city. The productivity of Chlorophyta sp. was ranged from 4 to 13 g(.)m(-2.)d(-1) and the average was 8.2 g(.)m(-2.)d(-1)| which corresponded to the photosynthetic efficiency of 4.15% (PAR). The productivity of Chlorella sp. was ranged from 7 to 21 g(.)m(-2.)d(-1) and the average was 13.2 g(.)m(-2.)d(-1) which corresponded to the photosynthetic efficiency of 6.56% (PAR). These results indicate that stable microalgal cultivation with comparatively high photosynthetic efficiency could be obtained in a raceway system under greenhouse conditions in Sendai city located in the northern part of Japan. 5293,2000,4,4,Photosynthetic responses to a climate-warming manipulation for contrasting meadow species in the Rocky Mountains| Colorado| USA,1. Microclimate was measured and photosynthetic responses to a climate warming manipulation were compared for the evergreen shrub Artemisia tridentata and the herbaceous forb Erigeron speciosus in the Rocky Mountains| Colorado| USA. 2. Soil was warmer and drier under infra-red heaters compared with control plots. 3. Midday xylem pressure potential did not differ for A. tridentata on heated vs control plots but was lower for E. speciosus on heated plots compared with controls. Leaf temperatures did not vary for the two species on heated or control plots. 4. There were no significant treatment or species differences in the diurnal patterns of CO2 assimilation or stomatal conductance to water vapour. Also| there were no differences in responses to leaf temperature. 5. The quantum yield for CO2 assimilation over a range of PPFD was lower for plants on heated plots. There was a marked difference between species in the pattern of stomatal conductance to water vapour over a range of PPFD| but no differences as a result of the heating treatment. 6. The quantum efficiency of PSII electron transport was significantly affected by heating. Non-radiative energy dissipation was greater for A. tridentata compared with E. speciosus. There was recovery of F-V/F-M for A. tridentata but not for E. speciosus. 7. Heating appears to affect plants via changes in soil water content rather than by increasing leaf temperature. The deciduous species E. speciosus appears to undergo some permanent closure of PSII on heated plots| in contrast to the evergreen shrub A. tridentata. Such differences may help explain the increase in above-ground biomass accumulation in response to heating for shrubs| compared with the decrease observed for deciduous herbaceous species. 3136,2000,2,2,Phylogeography and arctic biodiversity: a review,Current concerns over the impact that anthropogenic global climate change will have on levels of biodiversity have focused mainly on tropical and temperate systems. Recently| attention has turned to polar systems| and the potential impacts these climatic changes might have on polar flora and fauna. Polar organisms have been subjected to dramatic fluctuations in environmental conditions during the Holocene and Pleistocene| so one might expect these systems to be resilient. However| little is really known of how such global climate changes will impact biodiversity in the arctic. What is known| particularly through the use of molecular markers| is that glacial cycles have impacted the evolutionary trajectories of many extant polar species. By studying these organisms| particularly those found across the Holarctic| one can examine the dynamic interaction between deterministic forces (e.g. selection) and historical processes (e.g.| vicariance event) in order to better understand how these processes have impacted the phylogeography and genetic divergence among taxa. Keeping with the "northern dimensions" theme of this symposium| we review results obtained from a variety of phylogeographic studies that have examined the importance of dispersal| vicariance| and selection in shaping the distributions of arctic biota| especially among closely-related species complexes. In particular| we examine the recent debate over the importance of Pleistocene glacial cycles in influencing population genetic differentiation and speciation. Finally| we provide an assessment of how studying these arctic systems will benefit the global perspective on climate change research. 5368,2000,3,4,Plasma abatement of perfluorocompounds in inductively coupled plasma reactors,Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs)| gases which have large global warming potentials| are widely used in plasma processing for etching and chamber cleaning. Due to underutilization of the feedstock gases or by-product generation| the effluents from plasma tools using these gases typically have large mole fractions of PFCs. The use of plasma burn-boxes located downstream of the plasma chamber has been proposed as a method for abating PFC emissions with the goals of reducing the cost of PFC abatement and avoiding the NOx formation usually found with thermal treatment methods. Results from the two-dimensional Hybrid Plasma Equipment Model have been used to investigate the scaling of plasma abatement of PFCs using plasma burn-boxes. An inductively coupled plasma (ICP) etching chamber is modeled to determine the utilization of the feedstock gases and the generation of by-products. The effluent from the etching chamber is then passed through a plasma burn-box excited by a second ICP source. O-2| H-2| and H2O are examined as additive gases in the burn-box. We find that C2F6 (or CF4) consumption in the etching reactor increases with increasing ICP power deposition at constant C2F6 (or CF4) mole fraction| and decreasing C2F6 (or CF4) mole fraction or total gas flow rate at constant power. The efficiency of removal of C2F6 (eV/molecule)| however| is strongly dependent only on the C2F6 mole fraction and total gas flow rate. All PFCs in the effluent can generally be abated in the burn-box at high power deposition with a sufficiently large flow of additive gases. In general CF4 generation occurs during abatement of C2F6 using O-2 as an additive. CF4 is not| however| substantially produced when using H-2 or H2O as additives. The efficiency of PFC abatement decreases with increasing power and decreasing additive mole fraction. (C) 2000 American Vacuum Society. [S0734-2101(00)02401-5]. 5180,2000,3,4,Plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition of thermally stable and low-dielectric-constant fluorinated amorphous carbon films using low-global-warming-potential gas C5F8,Low-dielectric-constant fluorinated amorphous carbon films have been prepared from the low global-warming-potential gas of C5F8 by a capacitively coupled plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition method. Films were prepared at substrate temperatures as high as 400 degreesC. The obtained deposition rate of 15-65 nm/min was higher than that of conventional C4F8 plasma at the same substrate temperature. The dielectric constant of the films varied from 2.1 to 2.5 with increasing RF power from 10 to 100 W. The residual thickness of the films after 400 degreesC-thermal treatment was higher than 98%. At an RF power higher than 50 W| cracks appeared in the films that were rapidly cooled from 400 degreesC to room temperature| and poor adhesion characteristics were obtained even for the samples without cracks after gradual cooling. On the other hand| the samples prepared at 10 W showed no cracks and good adhesion on a crystalline silicon substrate regardless of the cooling rate. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. 5336,2000,2,4,Possible role of climate change in the pollen scatter of Japanese cedar Cryptomeria japonica in Japan,We conducted an atmospheric pollen survey using a Durham sampler from 1983 through 1998 in Toyama City| Japan. We investigated yearly changes in the pollen season of Japanese cedar Cryptomeria japonica and analyzed the relationships between climatic factors and changes in the pollen counts. The results were as follows: (1) The first day of the Japanese cedar pollen season advanced from mid-March to late February. The yearly change in the first day was significantly associated with the mean temperature in February. (2) An increase in total pollen count was significantly associated with the mean temperature in the previous July. (3) The duration of the pollen season was suggested to be associated with the total pollen count. These results indicate that climate change| especially increasing global warming| influences the early pollen scatter and increase in pollen count as well as elongation of pollen season of Japanese cedar. Further study will be needed to clarify its effect on the health of pollen-allergy patients. 5231,2000,2,4,Prediction and prevention of the impacts of sea level rise on the Yangtze River Delta and its adjacent areas,The Yangtze River Delta region is characterized by high density of population and rapidly developing economy. There are low lying coastal plain and deltaic plain in this region. Thus| the study area could be highly vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise caused by global warming. This paper deals with the scenarios of the relative sea level rise in the early half period of the 21st century in the study area. The authors suggested that relative sea level would rise 25-50 cm by the year 2050 in the study area| of which the magnitude of relative sea level rise in the Yangtze River Delta would double the perspective worldwide average. The impacts of sea level rise include: (i) exacerbation of coastline recession in several sections and vertical erosion of tidal flat| and increase in length of eroding coastline; (ii) decrease in area of tidal flat and coastal wetland due to erosion and inundation; (iii) increase in frequency and intensity of storm surge| which would threaten the coastal protection works; (iv) reduction of drainage capacity due to backwater effect in the Lixiahe lowland and the eastern lowland of Taihu Lake region| and exacerbation of flood and waterlogging disasters; and (v) increase in salt water intrusion into the Yangtze Estuary. Comprehensive evaluation of sea level rise impacts shows that the Yangtze River Delta and eastern lowland of Taihu Lake region| especially Shanghai Municipality| belong in the district in the extreme risk category and the next is the northern bank of Hangzhou Bay| the third is the abandoned Yellow River delta| and the district at low risk includes the central part of north Jiangsu coastal plain and Lixiahe lowland. 5264,2000,2,4,Present applications and future needs of meteorological and climatological data in inland fisheries and aquaculture,In 1996 production from capture fisheries and aquaculture in inland waters amounted to more than 23 million t. The amount of fish that can be produced| whether by capture from natural systems| or through aquaculture| depends on water quality and water quantity. The most obvious connections between meteorological data and inland fisheries and aquaculture production are via water temperature and the amounts of water available to natural and man-made systems| but there are also more subtle indirect relationships that affect the movement of nutrients and fish behaviour including migrations and reproduction. A wide range of examples of applications of meteorological data to aquaculture and inland fisheries are provided. They include continental assessments of inland fish farming potential| fishery potential in small water bodies| synoptic loss of fishery potential due to environmental degradation| complex effects of wind on fish production in a large lake and effects of global warming on fish distribution and production. It is concluded that the meteorological data that serve for agriculture also are relevant for inland fisheries and aquaculture| although the relative importance of parameters and their temporal aptness may be different| and thresholds may be dissimilar. Similarly| if the timeliness| resolution and predictive capabilities for agrometeorological data can be improved| there would be considerable benefits to inland fisheries and aquaculture. Geographically synoptic gridded agrometeorological data sets at 1 km resolution should be a short term objective. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5259,2000,3,4,Present status of amorphous soft magnetic alloys,Application of amorphous soft magnets in electric-utility and industrial transformers are increasingly being adopted| helping to solve global warming and energy-saving problems. Tn addition| amorphous metal-based magnetic components are used in power electronics| telecommunication equipment| sensing devices| electronic article surveillance systems| etc. Some magnetic inductors find applications in pulse power devices| automotive ignition coils| and electric power conditioning systems. All of these applications are possible because of faster flux reversal| lower magnetic loss and more versatile property modification achievable in amorphous alloys. Improvements in materials processing and device Fabrication technology will continue to lake place| which will further increase the universe of application of amorphous soft magnets. Some fundamental problems associated with the applications are mentioned. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5186,2000,2,3,Preserving the ocean circulation: Implications for climate policy,Climate modelers have recognized the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a reorganization of the North Atlantic's current pattern (technically known as a thermohaline circulation collapse). This circulation system now warms north-western Europe and transports carbon dioxide to the deep oceans. The posited collapse of this system could produce severe cooling in northwestern Europe| even when general global warming is in progress. In this paper we use a simple integrated assessment model to investigate the optimal policy response to this risk. Adding the constraint of avoiding a thermohaline circulation collapse would significantly reduce the allowable greenhouse gas emissions in the long run along an optimal path. Our analysis implies that relatively small damages associated with a collapse (less than 1% of gross world product) would justify a considerable reduction of future carbon dioxide emissions. 3097,2000,2,4,Prevalence of malaria parasites (Plasmodium floridense and Plasmodium azurophilum) infecting a Puerto Rican lizard (Anolis gundlachi): A nine-year study,The prevalence of malaria parasites was studied in the lizard Anolis gundlachi over a 9-yr period at a site in the wet evergreen forest of eastern Puerto Rico. Three forms of the parasite infected the lizards: these were Plasmodium floridense| Plasmodium azurophilum in erythrocytes| and P. azurophilum in white blood cells. Overall prevalence of infection for 8 samples during the study period was significantly higher for males than females (32% of 3|296 males and 22% of 1.439 females). During the study| the site experienced substantial climatic and physical disturbance including rising temperature| droughts| and hurricanes that severely damaged the forest. Parasite prevalence in the first sample| 8 mo after the massive hurricane Hugo| was slightly| though significantly| lower than for subsequent samples. However| overall prevalence was stable during the 9-yr period. The results show malaria prevalence is more constant at the site than found for 2 studies in temperate forests| and that the Puerto Rico system may be an example of the stable| endemic malaria described by standard models for human malaria epidemiology. 3058,2000,5,4,Quaternary chronostratigraphy: the nomenclature of terrestrial sequences,There is a long-standing tradition of dividing Quaternary stratigraphical sequences on the basis of climate. This climatostratigraphical approach| begun on terrestrial sequences in the last century| led to the widespread adoption of glacial| interglacial| stadial and interstadial subdivisions as standard. However| the limitations of the approach resulted in its replacement by local sequences of chronostratigraphical stages from the 1950s. The subsequent establishment of the detail and complexity of ocean-core sequences has encouraged increasing use of the terminology developed for these records to the terrestrial and shallow marine succession. The view is expressed that it is advisable to separate and retain regional chronostratigraphies for each sequence-type| and that these should be correlated using event-based stratigraphy where possible. This should ensure both the highest precision and lack of ambiguity and a securely-based synthesis of the relations between the terrestrial and ocean isotope sequences| a synthesis which is fundamental to understanding the nature and detail of regional and global climate change. 5236,2000,3,4,Radiative forcing and global warming potentials of 11 halogenated compounds,Radiative forcing values have been calculated for 11 halogenated compounds which are in current use or which have been suggested as possible replacements for the chlorofluorocarbons. Absorption cross-sections measured over a range of atmospheric temperature and pressure conditions as part of a multi-laboratory programme have been used together with a narrow band radiative transfer model. We provide a "best estimate" radiative forcing taking into account the likely vertical profile of the gas in each case. The Global Warming Potential over a variety of time horizons has also been calculated where the lifetime is available. We present the first such information for 1|2-dichloroethane. For chloroform our radiative forcing is 5 times higher than the value used in previous assessments| possibly because these ignored the effect of absorption outside the 800-1200 cm(-1) "window". For several of the other compounds considered here| our forcing is between 10 and 30% lower than previous assessments. The perfluorocarbons have been found to have large global warming potentials| many times that of CFC-11| due to both strong absorption and long lifetimes. The importance of absorption features at wavenumbers below 800 cm(-1) and the effect of temperature variations in absorption cross-section on the radiative forcing are also investigated. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5226,2000,4,1,Radiative forcings and global warming potentials of 39 greenhouse gases,The radiative forcings and global warming potentials for 39 greenhouse gases are evaluated using narrowband and broadband radiative transfer models. Unlike many previous studies| latitudinal and seasonal variations are considered explicitly| using distributions of major greenhouse gases from a combination of chemical-transport model results and Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) measurements and cloud statistics from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. The gases examined include CO2| CH4| N2O| plus a number of chlorofluorocarbons| hydrochlorofluorocarbons| hydrofluorocarbons| hydrochlorocarbons| bromocarbons| iodocarbons| and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). The model calculations are performed on a 5 degrees latitude grid from 82.5 degrees S to 82.5 degrees N. The radiative forcings determined by the model are then used to derive global warming potential for each of the compounds| which are compared with prior analyses. In addition| the latitudinal and seasonal dependence of radiative forcing since preindustrial time is calculated. The vertical profiles of the gases are found to be important in determining the radiative forcings; the use of height-independent vertical distributions of greenhouse gases| as used in many previous studies| produce errors of several percent in estimated radiative forcings for gases studied here; the errors for the short-lived compounds are relatively higher. Errors in evaluated radiative forcings caused by neglecting both the seasonal and the latitudinal distributions of greenhouse gases and atmospheres are generally smaller than those due to height-independent vertical distributions. Our total radiative forcing due to increase ill major greenhouse gas concentrations for the period 1765-1992 is 2.32 Wm(-2)| only 2% higher than other recent estimates; however| the differences for individual gases are as large as 23%. 5296,2000,4,4,Rate constant for the reactions of CF3OCHFCF3 with OH and Cl,The kinetics of reactions of CF3OCHFCF3 with hydroxyl radicals and chlorine atoms has been investigated using a discharged flow combined with both mass spectrometer and resonance fluorescence technique and using a relative rate technique| respectively| at 298 K. The rate constant for the reactions of CF3OCHFCF3 with OH and Cl was determined to be k(1) = (4.98 +/- 1.64) X 10(-15) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and k(2) = (3.1 +/- 2.5) X 10(-14) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| respectively. On the basis of our kinetics measurements| the tropospheric lifetime of CF3OCHFCF3 is calculated to be about 8 years| primarily due to reaction with the hydroxyl radicals in the troposphere. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3082,2000,2,4,Reanalyses-based tropospheric temperature estimates: Uncertainties in the context of global climate change detection,Uncertainties in estimates of tropospheric mean temperature were investigated in the context of climate change detection through comparisons of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) 40-yr reanalysis (1958-97)| the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Data Assimilation Office (NASA/DAO) 14-yr reanalysis (1980-93)| the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Project (ERA) 15-yr reanalysis (1979-94)| and the satellite microwave sounding unit channel 2 (MSU Ch2) (1979-97) temperature data. The maximum overlap period for comparison among these datasets is the 14 full years January 1980 to December 1993. This study documents similar shifts in the relative bias between the MSU Ch2 and the ERA and the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses in the 1991-97 period suggesting changes in the satellite analysis. However| the intercomparisons were not able to rule out the changes in the reanalysis systems and/or the input data on which the reanalyses are based as prime factors for the changes in the relative bias between the MSU and ERA and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. These temporal changes in the relative bias among the reanalyses suggest their limitations for global change studies. Nonetheless| the analysis also shows that the pattern correlations (r) between the MSU Ch2 monthly mean fields and each of the reanalyses are very high| r > 0.96| and remain relatively high for the anomaly fields| r > 0.8| generally >0.9. This result suggests that reanalysis may be used for comparisons to numerical model-generated forecast fields (from GCM simulation runs) and in conjunction with "fingerprint'" techniques to identify climate change. In comparisons of the simple linear trends present in each dataset for the 1980-90 period| each of the reanalyses had spatial patterns similar to MSU Ch2 except that the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis showed smaller "positive" (warming) trends in comparison with the MSU while the ERA reanalysis showed larger positive trends. The NASA/DAO reanalysis showed a mixed pattern. Many regions of the globe are identified that showed consistent warming/cooling patterns among the major reanalyses and MSU| even though there were disagreements in the exact magnitude among the analyses. The spatial patterns of linear trends changed| however| with the addition of three years of data to extend the trend analysis to the 1980-93 period. This result suggests that such simple linear trend analyses are very sensitive to the temporal span in these relatively shea datasets and thus are of limited usefulness in the context of climate change detection except| however| when the signal is large and shows consistency among all datasets. The long record (1958-96) of seasonal mean 2-m temperature anomalies from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis is well correlated with gridded analyses of station-based observed surface temperature| with correlations between 0.65 and 0.85. It is argued that these correlations might suggest an upper limit to the magnitudes of the pattern correlations that might be obtained by correlating observed surface temperature analyses with those from multiyear GCM simulation runs made in the context of fingerprint climate change detection. 5375,2000,5,1,Recent warming in a 500-year palaeotemperature record from varved sediments| Upper Soper Lake| Baffin Island| Canada,Laminated sediments from Upper Soper Lake on southern Baffin island provide a new 500-year record of temperature change in the Arctic. Radiometric dating| using Pb-210 and Pu| shows that the light- and dark-coloured laminae couplets are annually deposited varves. Dark laminae thickness is strongly correlated to average June temperature from Kimmirut (r = 0.82)| reflecting the influence of temperature on snowmelt and fluxes of runoff and suspended sediment. This relationship allowed the construction of a palaeotemperature record that documents large-amplitude interannual to decadal variability superimposed on distinct century-scale trends| including 2 degrees C average warming and maximum temperatures during the 1900s. Similar patterns of change are seen in individual and regionally averaged palaeotemperature records from around the circum-Arctic. Upper Soper Lake records temperatures| rates of change and Variance during the twentieth century that are all anomalously high within the context of the last 500 years| and outside the observed range of natural variability. Comparisons of Upper Soper Lake and Arctic average palaeotemperature to proxy-records of hypothesized forcing mechanisms suggest that the recent warming trend is mostly due to anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The magnitude of the warming and decade-scale variability throughout the records| however| indicate that natural forcing mechanisms such as changing solar irradiance and volcanic activity| as well as positive feedbacks within the Arctic environment| also play an important role. 5354,2000,3,3,Reduction of iron-oxide by ball-milling with hydrogen gas flow,A new method for reducing iron-ore without greenhouse effect gas exhaust was developed to prevent the global warming. The reduction of alpha-Fe2O3 (hematite) by ball-milling with hydrogen gas flow was studied by XRD| SEM| TEM and Mossbauer spectroscopy. Iron oxide (alpha-Fe2O3) powder was charged into a container for ball-milling with stainless steel balls. The container was designed to flow gas during ball-milling process. It has two holes| one of which is for inducing hydrogen gas into container| other one is for exhausting a producing gas out of the container. Milling was interrupted to take samples for estimating the deoxidization process. Charging and removal of the samples were done in a high purity argon atmosphere. A vibrating ball-mill machine was used. The results of X-ray diffraction measurement show that the reduction of iron-oxide starts at 18.0 ks of ball-milling. The intensity of Bragg peaks corresponding to the Fe2O3 decreased with milling time. Conversely to this| the intensity of Bragg peaks of alpha-Fe increased. At 216.0 ks of milling| almost the Bragg peaks of Fe2O3 disappeared and the only Bragg peaks of alpha-Fe remained. During this reducing process| Fe3O4 and FeO appeared as intermediate states between alpha-Fe2O3 and alpha-Fe. Nano-crystalline Fe was obtained by the reduction of iron-oxide by ball-milling with hydrogen gas flow. 5220,2000,3,4,Refrigerant use in Europe,The environmental issues of ozone depletion and global warming have considerably affected the refrigeration| air-conditioning and heat pump industry over the last 10 years. The Montreal Protocol has caused the refrigeration industry to introduce newly developed hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as substitutes for the chlorine-containing| ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). This process for new systems has been finalized in industrialized countries and is ongoing in developing countries. Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)| such as R-22| have much lower ozone-depleting potential (ODP) and will be phased out within the next 20 years worldwide. However| national regulations require a much earlier phase-out date| especially in Europe. Therefore| chlorine-free HFCs will replace chlorine-containing refrigerants in the marketplace. 3121,2000,2,4,Regional climate change: Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation series at selected Canadian sites,Global climate change does not necessarily imply that temperature or precipitation is increasing at specific locations. The hypothesis of increasing temperature and precipitation trends associated with global climate change is tested using actual annual temperature and precipitation data for nine selected weather stations| spatially distributed across Canada. Vogelsang's (1998) partial sum and Woodward et al's (1997) bootstrap methods are used for testing for trend Both methods suggest no warming in the Canadian temperature series except for Toronto| Ontario| which had significant increase over time| along with Moncton| New Brunswick and Indian Head| Saskatchewan| which had marginal increases. There is no evidence of increasing trend in precipitation except for Moncton| New Brunswick| which had a significantly increasing trend| thus| public policies designed to address the regional effects of climate change need to be adapted for a particular ecological zone| based on knowledge of the climate trends for that region| rather than on general global climate change patterns. 5346,2000,2,4,Remedial habitat creation: does Nereis diversicolor play a confounding role in the colonisation and establishment of the pioneering saltmarsh plant| Spartina anglica?,Increasing concerns over global warming and expected sea level rises have led to the adoption of new coastal management strategies around the south-east roast of England. This paper explores the role played by the estuarine invertebrate Nereis diversicolor in limiting the colonisation and establishment of the invasive pioneering salt marsh plant| Spartina anglica. The biology of N. diversicolor is brief-iv reviewed and data from field experiments are presented demonstrating significant negative effects of worm abundance on transplanted S. anglica biomass. Laboratory-based experiments demonstrated significant negative effects of N. diversicolor abundance on the survival of S. anglica seeds transplanted to sediment cores. The importance of estuarine invertebrates in engineering the mudflat habitat may confound the foreseen ecosystem services and function provided by saltmarsh management schemes. 5289,2000,3,4,Reservoir-engineering aspects of CO2 sequestration in coals,Increasing worldwide CO2 emissions have heightened interest in injecting CO2 into coals to mitigate ifs possible role in global-warming. Concepts from natural gas storage are readily adapted to CO2 sequestration in coal. Coal-seam fill-up with CO2 can be described by coupling a gas-injectivity equation with a mass-balance equation. The full-length paper presents example calculations for two selected coal basins. 3101,2000,2,4,Respondence and feedback of modern sand deserts to climate change - A case study in Gurbantunggut Desert,The research on the respondence and feedback of modern sand deserts to the climate change is an important component part in the studies on the global climate change| Deserts respond to the climate change| meanwhile| they affect the climate with their feedback of peculiar environment during the respondence. Many researches on desert climate have been carried out at home and abroad. However| there is little research on the respondence and feedback of modern fixed| semi-fixed and mobile deserts in arid areas to the climate change| in which the factor analysis as well as the parameter changing effects is especially the difficult problem all along. In this note| the parameters of the respondence and feedback of Gurbantunggut Desert to the climate change are measured and analyzed| some variable parameters of water-heat exchange are obtained| and a numerical model of desertification is developed according to a series of climate change of about 40 years and the variable relations of meteorological and physical features of the sand surface in Gurbantunggut Desert. 5208,2000,2,4,Response of atmospheric methane consumption by Maine forest soils to exogenous aluminum salts,Atmospheric methane consumption by Maine forest soils was inhibited by additions of environmentally relevant levels of aluminum. Aluminum chloride was more inhibitory than nitrate or sulfate salts| but its effect was comparable to that of a chelated form of aluminum. Inhibition could be explained in part by the lower soil pH values which resulted from aluminum addition. However| significantly greater inhibition by aluminum than by mineral acids at equivalent soil pH values indicated that inhibition also resulted from direct effects of aluminum per se. The extent of inhibition by exogenous aluminum increased with increasing methane concentration for soils incubated in vitro. At methane concentrations of >10 ppm| inhibition could be observed when aluminum chloride was added at concentrations as low as 10 nmol g (fresh weight) of soil(-1). These results suggest that widespread acidification of soils and aluminum mobilization due to acid precipitation may exacerbate inhibition of atmospheric methane consumption due to changes in other parameters and increase the contribution of methane to global warming. 5143,2000,2,4,Response of bog and fen plant communities to warming and water-table manipulations,Large-scale changes in climate may have unexpected effects on ecosystems| given the importance of climate as a control over almost all ecosystem attributes and internal feedbacks. Changes in plant community productivity or composition| for example| may alter ecosystem resource dynamics| trophic structures| or disturbance regimes| with subsequent positive or negative feedbacks on the plant community. At northern latitudes| where increases in temperature are expected to be greatest but where plant species diversity is relatively low| climatically mediated changes in species composition or abundance will likely have large ecosystem effects. In this study| we investigated effects of infrared loading and manipulations of water-table elevation on net primary productivity of plant species in bog and fen wetland mesocosms between 1994 and 1997. We removed 27 intact soil monoliths (2.1 m(2) surface area| 0.5-0.7 m depth) each from a bog and a fen in northern Minnesota to construct a large mesocosm facility that allows for direct manipulation of climatic variables in a replicated experimental design. The treatment design was a fully crossed factorial with three infrared-loading treatments| three water-table treatments| and two ecosystem types (bogs and fens)| with three replicates of all treatment combinations. Overhead infrared lamps caused mean monthly soil temperatures to increase by 1.6-4.1 degreesC at 15-cm depth during the growing season (May-October). In 1996| depths to water table averaged -11| -19| and -26 cm in the bog plots| and 0| -10| and -19 cm in the fen plots. Annual aboveground net primary production (ANPP) of bryophyte| forb| graminoid| and shrub life-forms was determined for the dominant species in the mesocosm plots based on species specific canopy/biomass relationships. Belowground net primary production (BNPP) was estimated using root in-growth cores. Bog and fen communities differed in their response to infrared loading and water-table treatments because of the differential response of life-forms and species characteristic of each community. Along a gradient of increasing water-table elevation| production of bryophytes increased| and production of shrubs decreased in the bog community. Along a similar gradient in the fen community| production of graminoids and forbs increased. Along a gradient of in creasing infrared loading in the bog| shrub production increased whereas graminoid production decreased. In the fen| graminoids were most productive at high infrared loading| and forbs were most productive at medium infrared loading. In the bog and fen| BNPP:ANPP ratios increased with warming and drying| indicating shifts in carbon allocation in response to climate change. Further| opposing responses of species and life-forms tended to cancel out the response of production at higher levels of organization| especially in the bog. For example| total net primary productivity in the bog did not differ between water-table treatments because BNPP was greatest in the dry treatment whereas ANPP was greatest in the wet treatment. The differential responses of species| life-forms| and above- and belowground biomass production to the treatments suggest that bog and fen plant communities will change| in different directions and magnitudes| in response to warming and changes in water-table elevation. Further| results of this and complementary research indicate that these peatlands may mediate their energy| carbon| and nutrient budgets through differential responses of the plant communities. Thus| predictions of the response of peatlands to changes in climate should consider differences in plant community structure| as well as biogeochemistry and hydrology| that characterize and differentiate these two ecosystems. 5374,2000,5,4,Response of climate to solar forcing recorded in a 6000-year delta O-18 time-series of Chinese peat cellulose,Previous studies have shown that the oxygen isotope ratio (delta(18)O) of plant cellulose can serve as a sensitive proxy indicator of past climate| but its application has mainly been restricted to tree-rings. Here we present a 6000-year high-resolution delta(18)O record of peat plant cellulose from northeastern China. The delta(18)O Variation is interpreted as reflecting changes in regional surface air temperature. The climate events inferred from the isotope data agree well with archaeological and historic evidence. The record shows a striking correspondence of climate events to nearly all of the apparent solar activity changes characterized by the atmospheric radiocarbon in tree-rings over the past 6000 years. Spectral analysis of the delta(18)O record reveals the periodicities of around 86| 93| 101| 110| 127| 132| 140| 155| 207| 245| 311| 590| 820 and 1046 years| which are similar to those detected in the solar excursions. We consider these observations as further evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on timescales of decades to centuries. Our results also have implications for distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic contributions to future climate change. 5263,2000,4,1,Response of the NCAR climate system model to increased CO2 and the role of physical processes,The global warming resulting from increased CO2 is addressed in the context of two regional processes that contribute to climate change in coupled climate models| the "El Nino-like" response (slackening of the equatorial Pacific SST gradient) and sea-ice response at high latitudes. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM) response is compared with results from a coupled model that produces comparatively greater global warming| the NCAR U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) global coupled model. In an experiment where atmospheric CO2 is increased 1% yr(-1) compound| globally averaged surface air temperature increase near the time of CO2 doubling for the CSM is 1.43 degrees C (3.50 degrees C for the DOE model). Analysis of a simple coupled model shows the CSM equilibrium sensitivity to doubled CO2 is comparable to that from the slab ocean version (about 2.1 degrees C). One process that contributes to global warming (estimated to be about 5% in one slab ocean model)| as well as to significant Pacific region climate effects| is the El Nino-like response. It is a notable feature in the DOE model and some other global coupled models but does not occur in the CSM. The authors show that cloud responses are a major determining factor. With increased CO2| there are negative net cloud-forcing differences in the western equatorial Pacific in the CSM and DOE models| but large positive differences in the DOE model and negative differences in the CSM in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This produces asymmetric cloud radiative forcing contributing to an El Nino-like response in the DOE model and not in the CSM. To remove the amplifying effects of ocean dynamics and to identify possible parameter-dependent processes that could contribute to such cloud forcing changes| the authors analyze slab ocean versions of the coupled models in comparison with a slab ocean configuration of the atmospheric model in the CSM [Community Climate Model Version 3 (CCM3)] that includes prognostic cloud liquid water. The latter shows a change in sign (from negative to positive) of the net cloud forcing in the eastern equatorial Pacific with doubled CO2| similar to the DOE model| in comparison with the CCM3 version with diagnostic cloud liquid water. Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (prescribed SST) experiments show that ail three atmospheric models (DOE| CCM3 with diagnostic cloud liquid water| and CCM3 with prognostic cloud liquid water) perform poorly relative to observations in terms of cloud radiative forcing| though CCM3 with prognostic cloud liquid water is slightly superior to the others. Another process that contributes to climate response to increasing CO2 is sea-ice changes| which are estimated to enhance global warming by roughly 20% in the CSM and 37% in the DOE model. Sea-ice retreat with increasing CO2 in the CSM is less than in the DOE model in spite df identical sea-ice formulations. Results from the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Sea region show that the surface energy budget response is controlled primarily by surface albedo (related to ice area changes) and cloud changes. However| a more important factor is the poleward ocean heat transport associated with changes in meridional overturning in the GIN Sea. With increased CO2| the transport of warmer water from the south into this region in the DOE model is greater in comparison with that of the CSM. This leads to a larger ice reduction in the DOE model| thus also contributing to the enhanced contribution from ice albedo feedback in the DOE model in comparison with the CSM. 5266,2000,2,4,Responses of subalpine meadow vegetation to four years of experimental warming,Ecosystems at high elevations may be especially sensitive to global warming| because productivity is limited to a snow-free growing season| and warming is expected to cause earlier snowmelt. Here we report on vegetation responses to experimental warming in a subalpine meadow in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We found no evidence that the plant community changed during four years of warming. Species composition in warmed plots did not change more through time than in control plots| nor did warmed plots diverge from adjacent control plots through time. Contrary to an earlier report| we found no evidence that warming facilitated adults or seedlings of sagebrush| a shrub characteristic of lower elevation ecosystems; nor did it facilitate short-lived plant species as a group. Total vegetation cover| as well as cover of graminoids| forbs| and shrubs| did not differ between control and warmed plots| nor did species richness or species' distributions along a small elevational gradient within each plot. Shrub cover tended to increase more| and forb cover to decrease more| in warmed than in control plots during one summer season| but not significantly so. This lack of detectable plant community response contrasts with pronounced responses to warming in some arctic and alpine ecosystems over similar time spans. Warming in these ecosystems is thought to act indirectly via increased mobilization of soil nutrients. One possible reason for the lack of response in our system is that drying of soil limits microbial activity| photosynthesis| and plant growth sooner in the season in warmed plots| canceling out effects of earlier snowmelt. If this is correct| and if summer precipitation patterns are unchanged under global warming| then vegetation in arid high-elevation ecosystems may change only slowly. 3056,2000,2,4,Scaling phenology from the local to the regional level: advances from species-specific phenological models,Plant phenology| the study of seasonal plant activity driven by environmental factors| has found a renewal in the context of global climate change. Phenological events| such as leaf unfolding| exert strong control over seasonal exchanges of matter and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Phenological models that simulate the start of the growing season should be efficient tools to predict vegetation responses to climatic changes and related changes in energy balance. Species-specific phenological models developed in the eighties have not been used for global-scale predictions because their predictions were inaccurate in external conditions. Recent advances in phenology modelling at the species level suggest that prediction at a large scale may now be possible. In the present study| we tested the performance of species-specific phenological models in time and space| looking at their ability (i) to predict regional phenology when previously fitted at a local scale| and (ii) to predict phenological trends| linked to climate changes| observed over a long-term. For that task we used an historical phenological dataset from Ohio from the late ninetieth century and an airborne pollen dataset from Ontario| Quebec and Maryland from the late twentieth century. The results show that the species-specific phenological models used in this study were able to predict regional phenology even though they were fitted locally. The reconstruction of a phenological time series over the twentieth century showed a significant advancement of 0.2 days per year in the date of flowering of Ulmus americana| but very weak trends for Fraxinus americana and Quercus velutina. 5376,2000,3,4,Screening pumping systems for energy savings opportunities,In most industrial settings| energy consumed by pumping systems is responsible for a major part of the overall electricity bill. In some cases| the energy is used quite efficiently; in others| it is not. Facility operators may be very familiar with pumping system equipment controllability| reliability| and availability| but only marginally aware of system efficiency. But there are some good reasons to increase that awareness: 1) As budgets shrink and the intensity of both domestic and international competition increases| the pressure to find additional of reducing costs will grow. 2) The reliability of pumps correlates with pump efficiency; that pumps operated near the design| or best efficiency point| will to perform more reliably and with greater availability. 3) The questions of whether global warming is truly occurring| and it is| whether humankind's activities play a significant role| both be debatable. But there is no debating the fact that there finite energy resources| particularly of the fossil fuel variety| on earth. If we are to be counted as good stewards| then careful| if frugal| resource use is important. The cost of energy consumed by pumps usually dominates the pump life cycle cost. But many end users| already stretched to support day-to-day facility operations| lack the time and resources to perform a methodical engineering study of| in some cases| hundreds of pumps within their facilities to understand the energy costs and the potential opportunity for reduction. Under the auspices of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Motor Challenge Program| prescreening guidance documents and a computer program called PSAT (pumping system assessment tool) have been developed to help end users| consultants| and equipment distributors recognize| both qualitatively and quantitatively| pumping system efficiency improvement opportunities. This article describes the general methodologies employed and shows case study examples of the prescreening and software application.
5314,2000,2,4,Seasonal and altitudinal variation in decomposition of soil organic matter inferred from radiocarbon measurements of soil CO2 flux,The rate of carbon (C) cycling in soils is controlled by an array of processes and conditions. It has been widely accepted that an increase in temperature would accelerate microbial decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) and provide a positive feedback to global warming| other factors being equal. However| soil moisture has received little attention in C cycle studies. In this project| we developed a technique for sampling soil-respired CO2 for isotopic measurements and a model that relates the radiocarbon (C-14) content of soil respired CO2 to the rate of C cycling in soils. We measured soil CO2 flux| carbon isotopic content (both C-13 and C-14) of soil-respired CO2| soil temperature| and soil moisture on a monthly basis along an elevation transect in the Sierra Nevada in an attempt to determine the relationship between the rate of soil C cycling and soil environmental conditions. Both soil CO2 flux and its C-14 content displayed significant variations (spatially and temporally)| which reflect natural variations in the rate of SOM decomposition and in the relative amount of SOM-derived CO2 versus root-respired CO2 caused by seasonal changes in soil temperature| moisture| and plant activity. The relative contribution of SOM decomposition to total soil CO2 production changed throughout the year from similar to 20 - 50% at the peak of the growing season to close to 100% in the nongrowing season. The apparent decay rate of SOM determined from the C-14 content of soil-respired CO2 varied from similar to 0.2 yr(-1) in the spring to similar to 0.01 yr(-1) in the fall at the lowest-elevation site and from 0.1 yr(-1) in the summer to - 0.01 yr(-1) in the late fall at the highest-elevation site. It appears that the apparent decay rate of SOM increased with increasing temperature when soil moisture was adequate but decreased with increasing temperature when soil moisture became limited. The apparent decay rate of SOM also varied with soil moisture. Higher soil moisture content accelerated decomposition of SOM until it reached an optimal level of similar to 14 - 25 wt % water content and then inhibited decomposition when more pores in soils became saturated with water and perhaps oxygen availability (for microbes) became limited. Although the rate of SOM decomposition varied throughout the year in response to fluctuations in soil temperature and moisture| the maximum apparent decay rate was higher at the low-elevation site (i.e.| maximum apparent decay rate = 0.22 yr(-1)) than at the high-elevation sites (i.e.| maximum apparent decay rate = 0.10 yr(-1)). Litter decomposition simulated by measuring changes in mass of litter in litter bags placed in the field also showed a similar decomposition pattern with decreasing decomposition rate with elevation. Multivariable regression analyses including various terms of soil temperature| moisture| and site variability suggest that soil moisture was a major factor| but not the only factor| controlling the rate of SOM decomposition and soil CO2 flux in the Sierra Nevada soils. Both decay rate and total soil CO2 flux are related significantly to soil moisture| temperature| and site effects. 5262,2000,2,4,Seed bank dynamics: the role of fungal pathogens and climate change,1. One of the climate change scenarios predicted for the UK is warmer winters and additional summer rainfall| which may favour growth and survival of fungal pathogens. We tested several hypotheses on the fate of persistent seeds in the soil and the role of fungal pathogens under this predicted climate change. 2| We buried seed bags containing fungicide-treated and non-fungicide-treated seeds of four species with persistent seed banks (Convolvulus arvensis L.| Lotus corniculatus L.| Medicago lupulina L. and Rubus fruticosus L.) under control and simulated climate change (winter warming plus supplemented summer rain) conditions| and monitored seed survival over 1 to 2 years. 3. Fungicide treatment resulted in a significant increase in the percentage of intact seeds recovered for only two of the four species| M. lupulina and R. fruticosus. Seeds of M. lupulina that were treated with fungicide remained viable in the soil for longer than non-treated seeds. Thus| the effect of fungal pathogens on seed persistence in the soil appears to be species specific. 4. There was no significant effect of the simulated climate (winter warming plus supplemented summer rain) on seed persistence in the soil| for any of the four species. Neither was a significant climate x fungicide treatment interaction found for any of the four species. Thus| it does not appear that the conditions provided in the simulated climate plots favoured the growth and survival of fungal pathogens affecting the soil seed banks of the four species studied here. 5. The use of fungicides in manipulative experiments and the importance of field experiments that simulate predicted climate change are discussed. 5153,2000,2,4,Selection of white spruce families in the context of climate change: heat tolerance,To assess the responses and plasticity of white spruce seedlings (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) to high temperatures| 12 open-pollinated families differing in growth performance were exposed to a 30-min heat treatment of 42| 44| 46| 48| or 50 degreesC with or without heat preconditioning at 38 degreesC for 5 h. Damage was evaluated based on chlorophyll fluorescence parameters after heat preconditioning| after the heat treatments and during a 7-day recovery period. Visible needle damage was also evaluated after the heat treatments and 14 days later. Chlorophyll fluorescence parameters indicated that seedlings subjected to a heat treatment of 42-43 degreesC lost the ability to phosphorylate and donate water to photosystem II (PSII). A heat treatment of 44-46 degreesC severely limited the ability of the seedlings to use NADPK and ATP in the Calvin cycle. Based on visible needle damage| families with superior height-growth performance were more sensitive to heat stress than families with intermediate or inferior height-growth performance. Moreover| families with superior height-growth performance had low photochemical efficiencies in the light (DeltaF/F-m') after heat treatment. Heat preconditioning increased the thermotolerance of the seedlings. However| the data suggest that white spruce seedlings exhibiting fast-growing characteristics under present conditions may not grow as well at higher temperatures. 5364,2000,2,3,Sensitivity of modern and Holocene floods to climate change,Alluvial records of paleofloods show that natural floods resulting from excessive rainfall| snowmelt| or from combined rainfall and snowmelt are highly sensitive to even modest changes of climate equivalent or smaller than changes expected from potential future global warming in the 21st century. The high sensitivity results from effects of hemispheric or global-scale changes in circulation patterns of the ocean and atmosphere to influence the pathway's and locations of air masses and storm tracks. Holocene paleoflood chronologies from the Upper Mississippi Valley in the Midwest United States and from the Colorado River drainage of the Southwest United States show that recurrence frequencies of large floods have been subject to abrupt changes over time. These flood chronologies and hood chronologies observed for other middle-latitude regions suggest that recurrence frequencies of large hoods are increased when there is an increase in the number of waves and their amplitudes in the middle and upper tropospheric circum-polar westerly circulation. However| some middle-latitude regions on the western margins of continents experience increased frequencies of flooding during strong onshore zonal westerly circulation. Flood chronologies from several regions suggest that times of rapid climate change have a tendency to be associated with more frequent occurrences of large and extreme floods. The unusual high frequencies of large floods that have been observed in many regions since the early 1950s are often attributed to land use change| but the rapid climate forcing from the effects of increased atmospheric greenhouse gases may also be a contributing factor. Paleoflood records provide information that is useful for better interpretation and calibration of modern short-term instrumental records| and they provide unique event-scale information that is useful fbr calibrating and testing geophysical models of past and anticipated future climate conditions. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 3083,2000,2,4,Sensitivity of three grassland communities to simulated extreme temperature and rainfall events,Three grassland communities in New Zealand with differing climates and proportions of C3 and C4 species were subjected to one-off extreme heating (eight hours at 52.5 degrees C) and rainfall (the equivalent of 100 mm) events. A novel experimental technique using portable computer-controlled chambers simulated the extreme heating events. The productive| moist C3/C4 community was the most sensitive to the extreme events in terms of short-term community composition compared with a dry C3/C4 community or an exclusively C3 community. An extreme heating event caused the greatest change to plant community species abundance by favouring the expansion of C4 species relative to C3 species| shifting C4 species abundance from 43% up to 84% at the productive| moist site| This was observed both in the presence and absence of added water. In the absence of C4 species| heating reduced community productivity by over 60%. The short-term shifts in the abundance of C3 and C4 species in response to the single extreme climatic events did not have persistent effects on community structure or on soil nitrogen one year later. There was no consistent relationship between diversity and stability of biomass production of these plant communities| and species functional identity was the most effective explanation for the observed shifts in biomass production. The presence of C4 species resulted in an increased stability of productivity after extreme climatic events| but resulted in greater overall. shifts in community composition. The presence of C4 species may buffer grassland community productivity against an increased frequency of extreme heating events associated with future global climate change. 5162,2000,2,3,Severe summer rainfall in China associated with enhanced global warming,Trends of extreme wet and dry conditions during recent decades-were examined using observed data for eastern China. Mean precipitation for the region has shown a significant downward trend from the 1950s to the mid-1970s| and a positive trend since the late 1970s. The change in trend since the late 1970s| i.e. the period during which enhanced global warming emerged| is most prominent. The linear trend of the mean summer rainfall anomalies over the 4 subregions studied was +7.5 % decade(-1). Changes in the trend of severe wet and dry events are not symmetrical. During the period 1977-1998| the number of severe wet stations increased at the rate of 20.3 decade(-1)| but the trend far severe dry events was only -5.4 decade(-1). Similar rainfall changes can be found over many global land areas. The summer rainfall in eastern China showed only a negligible secular trend during the period 1880-1998. However| the decadal variations were clear. The mean rainfall in 1990-1998 was higher than for any other decade in the last 100 yr. The linear trend of the 33-station mean during 1977-1998 was +47.5 mm decade(-1); such a strong increase is unprecedented in the record since 1880. Decadal variations and global warming may both play important roles in the recent significant increase in summer rainfall. This paper also presents the results of greenhouse and/or aerosol forcing experiments| in which summer precipitation over eastern China is generally estimated to rise. There are many uncertainties| however| in the regional precipitation simulations. For example| the modeled rainfall is sensitive to whether aerosols are included or not. Further research is needed to determine whether there is a substantial relationship between the rainfall changes in China and global greenhouse warming. 5301,2000,2,3,Simulated responses of potential vegetation to doubled-CO2 climate change and feedbacks on near-surface temperature,Increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and associated changes in climate may exert large impacts on plant physiology and the density of vegetation cover. These may in turn provide feedbacks on climate through a modification of surface-atmosphere fluxes of energy and moisture. This paper uses asynchronously coupled models of global vegetation and climate to examine the responses of potential vegetation to different aspects of a doubled-CO2 environmental change| and compares the feedbacks on near-surface temperature arising from physiological and structural components of the vegetation response. Stomatal conductance reduces in response to the higher CO2 concentration| but rising temperatures and a redistribution of precipitation also exert significant impacts on this property as well as leading to major changes in potential vegetation structure. Overall| physiological responses act to enhance the warming near the surface| but in many areas this is offset by increases in leaf area resulting from greater precipitation and higher temperatures. Interactions with seasonal snow cover result in a positive feedback on winter warming in the boreal forest regions. 3081,2000,2,4,Simulation of climate-change effects on riparian vegetation in the Pere Marquette River| Michigan,Global climate-change models (GCMs) predict that the midwest USA will be drier and warmer as a result of global climate change. Other studies suggest that climate change has already started in the Lake Michigan region. This study uses climate predictions from GCMs and projections of historical climate-change trends to examine the potential effects of climate change on riparian vegetation along the Pere Marquette River in west central Michigan. A model of stream discharge as a function of temperature and precipitation was used to estimate the percent of time that each of 25 plots would be inundated at a field site in the riparian corridor on the river. Four vegetation classes were identified at the field site (Alnus| Open-Viburnum| Fraxinus-Carpinus| and Acer-Tsuga). The stream discharge model was used to calculate the percent of time each plot was inundated at the field site under the different climate scenarios and to predict the distribution of vegetation classes that would be present under climate-change conditions. The results suggest that the areal extent of vegetation classes at the field site may change by up to 27%. 5297,2000,2,3,Simulation of early 20th century global warming,The observed global warming of the past century occurred primarily in two distinct 20-year periods| from 1925 to 1944 and from 1978 to the present. Although the Latter warming is often attributed to a human-induced increase of greenhouse gases| causes of the earlier warming are less clear because this period precedes the time of strongest increases in human-induced greenhouse gas (radiative) forcing. Results from a set of six integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model suggest that the warming of the early 20th century could have resulted from a combination of human-induced radiative forcing and an unusually Large realization of internal multidecadal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. This conclusion is dependent on the model's climate sensitivity| internal variability| and the specification of the time-varying human-induced radiative forcing. 5342,2000,4,4,Soil-atmosphere exchange of radiatively and chemically active gases,Exchanges between the soils and the atmosphere may control or significantly affect the global budgets of many environmentally important trace gases| both natural and man-made. Flux measurements| taken in several ecosystems| show that soils are a substantial source of chloroform (8 +/- 4 mu g/m(2)/d) and a sink for methyl chloride (-10(-3)(+6) mu g/m(2)/d). The known sources and sinks of these gases are insufficient to explain the observed concentrations. Our findings will help to balance the global budget of chloroform but may put the budget of methyl chloride further out of balance. We also found| consistent with previous research| that soils are a substantial source of nitrous oxide and carbon monoxide and take up hydrogen and methane. The uptake of man-made chlorocarbons was observed| but the rates are small. Observed fluxes of non-methane hydrocarbons showed few patterns except that soils may be a source of ethane and butane. 3145,2000,3,3,Soils and global climate change: Challenges and opportunities,In the interplay of the soil and the atmosphere| the soil can be both a contributor to and a recipient of the impacts of climate change. In the past| land management has generally resulted in considerable depletion of soil organic matter and the release into the atmosphere of such radiatively active gases as carbon dioxide| methane| and nitrous oxide. Global climate change| to the extent that it occurs| will strongly impact all soil processes. At this time| the task of soil management should be to restore soil organic carbon in order to enhance soil structure and fertility and to help counter the atmospheric greenhouse effect| Widely varying estimates of the soil's organic carbon content and of the potential for soil carbon sequestration point to the need to conduct a comprehensive inventory of this important property. 5157,2000,4,4,Solar cycle lengths and climate: A reference revisited,An article published by Friis-Christensen and Lassen [1991] appeared to indicate an association between solar cycle lengths (SCLs) and climate. It attracted worldwide attention and has since been extensively referred to. We here present an updated analysis using a recent temperature reconstruction with the time period of comparison considerably expanded. The correlation is found to be weak. In the light of this new result we analyze the question how the article by Friis-Christensen and Lassen was able to create the impression of a 'strikingly good agreement'| as the authors described it. We show that the main reason is an unacceptable mixing of filtered and nonfiltered data in the graphical representation. Hereby| an artificial agreement of the solar data with the global warming since 1970 was established. The article by Friis-Christensen and Lassen has created and still creates confusion both in scientific and public discussions on climate change. We have therefore found it relevant to deliver the present analysis. 5209,2000,2,4,Solar forcing of the Northern hemisphere land air temperature: New data,It has previously been demonstrated that the mean land air temperature of the Northern hemisphere could adequately be associated with a long-term variation of solar activity as given by the length of the approximately 11-year solar cycle. Adding new temperature data for the 1990s and expected values for the next sunspot extrema we test whether the solar cycle length model is still adequate. We find that the residuals are now inconsistent with the pure solar model. We conclude that since around 1990 the type of Solar forcing that is described by the solar cycle length model no longer dominates the long-term variation of the Northern hemisphere land air temperature. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 3092,2000,5,4,Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic nuclides,Based on a quantitative study of the common fluctuations of C-14 and Be-10 production rates| we have derived a time series of the solar magnetic variability over the last 1200 years. This record is converted into irradiance variations by linear scaling based on previous studies of sun-like stars and of the sun's behavior over the last few centuries. The new solar irradiance record exhibits low values during the well-known solar minima centered at about 1900| 1810 (Dalton) and 1690 AD (Maunder). Further back in time| a rather long period between 1450 and 1750 AD is characterized by low irradiance values. A shorter period is centered at about 1200 AD| with irradiance slightly higher or similar to present day values. It is tempting to correlate these periods with the so-called "little ice age" and "medieval warm period"| respectively. An accurate quantification of the climatic impact of this new irradiance record requires the use of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs). Nevertheless| our record is already compatible with a global cooling of about 0.5 1 degrees C during the "little ice age"| and with a general cooling trend during the past millenium followed by global warming during the 20th century (Mann et al.| 1999). 5164,2000,4,4,Solar variability and the search for corresponding climate signals,Instrumental and paleodata from the last centuries are investigated to get circumstantial evidence for external influences on the Earth's climate machine. Such influences could be of extraterrestrial and/or anthropogenic origin. Anthropogenic influences are separated from solar on superdecadal time scales and on a hemispheric level using a non-linear regression model. The function to be explained is the northern hemispheric temperature. The model contains two forcing components explicitly: A parameterized anthropogenic component| which describes the aggregated effect of greenhouse gases| aerosols and other anthropogenic climate impacts. A solar component| which describes the solar variability history. The solution of the regression model allows| under certain assumptions| a functional separation of the variability components and provides an estimation of their relative contributions to global warming during the last 140 years. 5265,2000,4,4,Some agrometeorological aspects of pest and disease management for the 21st century,In the 21st century increasing societal| environmental| and economic pressures will create a changing context for solving agricultural pest management problems. Interdisciplinary approaches to problem solving will be needed to meet goals such as mitigating environmental degradation associated with the use of farm chemicals| and increasing productivity by reducing insect and disease damage to crops| and reducing competition from weeds. Crop system models will provide useful frameworks in which to examine the interrelationships among plants| the pest complex| and the environment to determine the most appropriate management strategies to meet individual and societal goals. Improved techniques for managing pests| such as transgenic plants resistant to pests and diseases| new biological control agents| innovative cultural controls| biological pesticides| and additional information to improve efficacy of traditional chemicals| will require weather data and forecasts in order to be used| and climate information to determine their suitability for use. Climatic change| including global warming and increased variability| will require improved analyses that can be used to assess risks associated with existing and newly developed pest management strategies and techniques| and to gauge the impact of these techniques on productivity and profitability. Control recommendations will need to be evaluated for suitability in the farming system where they are to be implemented. Training in the basics of agrometeorological relationships and pest management disciplines will have to be supplied to agricultural meteorologists| extension personnel involved in this work| and farmers. Research to successfully develop the new technologies and the weather and climatic information required by the technologies must be approached by interdisciplinary teams that include agricultural meteorologists. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3091,2000,2,4,Some aspects of ecological modeling developments in China,The achievements of the applications of ecological modeling to population dynamics| evolutionary and behaviour ecology| global climate change| ecotoxicology| conservation of biodiversity| sustainable use of biological resources and ecological engineering| and space analysis of ecological data are reviewed. After undergoing three evolution stages in China| some new methods and ideas for ecological modeling have been proposed. It will be a trend that quantitative in combination with qualitative methods are used in future. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5181,2000,2,4,Stabilization of vaccines: to be or not to be,Thermal lability of live vaccines has been a matter of serious concern right through the early 1960s. Initially| poliovirus stabilization was achieved experimentally by addition of magnesium chloride. Later efforts to stabilize labile biological substances included addition of trehalose| pirodavir| deuterium oxide or compounds based on electrostatic interventions. While addition of deuterium oxide resulted in a significantly stable live poliovirus vaccine| the product development activity was discontinued during the late 1990s [3]. Presently| the scientific community would appear to be casual and lackadaisical about stabilization of vaccines. Several reports on poor performance of biological substances and the climate change justify vigorous efforts towards stabilization of every vaccine| conventional or genetically produced.
5335,2000,3,3,Stimulation by ammonium-based fertilizers of methane oxidation in soil around rice roots,Methane is involved in a number of chemical and physical processes in the Earths atmosphere| including global warming(1)| Atmospheric methane originates mainly from biogenic sources| such as rice paddies and natural wetlands; the former account for at least 30% of the global annual emission of methane to the atmosphere(2). As an increase of rice production by 60% is the most appropriate way to sustain the estimated increase of the human population during the next three decades(3)| intensified global fertilizer application will be necessary(3): but it is known that an increase of the commonly used ammonium-based fertilizers can enhance methane emission from rice agriculture. Approximately 10-30% of the methane produced by methanogens in rice paddies is consumed by methane-oxidizing bacteria associated with the roots of rice(4|5); these bacteria are generally thought to be inhibited by ammonium-based fertilizers| as tvas demonstrated for soils(6-8) and sediments(9|10). In contrast| we show here that the activity and growth of such bacteria in the root zone of rice plants are stimulated after fertilization. Using a combination of radioactive fingerprinting(11) and molecular biology(12) techniques| we identify the bacteria responsible for this effect. We expect that our results will make necessary a re-evaluation of the link between fertilizer use and methane emissions| with effects on global warming studies. 5378,2000,3,4,Strength of CO2 hydrate membrane in sea water at 40 MPa,The strength of the CO2 hydrate membrane that forms at the interface between liquid CO2 and artificial sea water at 40-45 MPa was measured with Du-Nouy type surface tension meter. At low temperatures with a subcooling greater than 5 K| the membrane strength| initially abut 0.1 N/m| decreased with increasing temperature| However| it increased sharply and reached a peak of about 0.9 N/m just below the dissociation temperature and abruptly drops to zero at the dissociation temperature. This abnormal tendency of the membrane strength was previously observed by the authors in an experiment with fresh water. The temperature of the abnormality| however| shifts to lower temperatures and the peak decreases with increasing salinity| This new phenomenon could exert major influences on the various CO2 ocean sequestration methods that have been proposed to mitigate global warming. It can be explained in terms of a model in which the dissociation process of hydrate that occurs near the dissociation temperature enhances the diffusion of water molecules in the hydrate membrane and makes the membrane thicker. 5321,2000,4,4,Structures in tessera terrain| Venus: Issues and answers,Many workers assume that tessera terrain| marked by multiple tectonic lineaments and exposed in crustal plateaus| comprises a global onionskin on Venus. Because tesserae are exposed mostly within crustal plateaus| which exhibit thickened crust| issues of tessera distribution and the mechanism of crustal plateau formation (e.g.| mantle downwelling or upwelling) are intimately related. A review of Magellan data indicates that tessera terrain does not form a global onionskin on Venus| although ribbon-bearing tesserae reflect an ancient time of a globally thin lithosphere. Individual tracts of ribbon-bearing tessera terrain formed diachronously| punctuating time and space as individual deep mantle plumes imparted a distinctive rheological and structural signature on ancient thin crust across spatially discrete 1600-2500 km diameter regions above hot mantle plumes. Plume-related magmatic accretion led to crustal thickening at these locations| resulting in crustal plateaus. Crustal plateau surfaces record widespread early extension (ribbon structures) and local| minor perpendicular contraction of a thin| competent layer above a ductile substrate. Within individual evolving crustal plateaus the thickness of the competent layer increased with time| and broad| gentle folds formed along plateau margins and short| variably oriented folds formed in the interior; late complex graben cut folds. Local lava flows accompanied all stages of surface deformation. In contrast to these conclusions| Gilmore er nl. [1998] summarized post-Magellan arguments in favor of downwelling models for crustal plateau formation. In light of this discrepancy| we reexamine the regions investigated by these workers and evaluate their arguments against upwelling| models. We show that Gilmore et al. [1998] did not differentiate ribbons from graben and therefore their proposed temporal relations are invalid; they disregarded shear fracture ribbons| thus invalidating their criticism of ribbon models; they misunderstood previous radargrammetric work that constrains ribbon geometry; and they relied solely on geometrical relations to constrain timing| violating kinematic analysis methodology. Their stratigraphic constraints on ribbon-fold temporal relations are invalid because they (1) misinterpreted implications of map relations; (2) did not isolate radar artifacts due to local radar slope effects from proposed material units; (3) chose a region for analysis that clearly shows the effects of younger tectonism and volcanism; and (4) presented map relations that cannot be reproduced. Their attempts to discount upwelling models of crustal plateau formation fail because they combine fundamentally different pre-Magellan and post-Magellan upwelling models. These misconceptions about the upwelling model and processes responsible for global warming [Phillips and Hansen| 1998]| lead to serious errors in Gilmore et al.'s [1998] criticism. Furthermore| we show that the data of Gilmore et nl. [1998] are actually more consistent with upwelling than downwelling models| consistent with arguments that tessera terrain is not global in spatial distribution. 5355,2000,2,3,Sulfur dioxide emissions in Asia in the period 1985-1997,A consistent set of SO2 emission trends has been developed for Asian countries for the time period 1985-1997. The trend is based on extrapolation of a detailed 1990 inventory| which was constructed as part of the World Bank's RAINS-ASIA project| using IEA energy-use data. The trend shows Asian SO2 emissions growing from 33.7 Tg in 1990 to 39.2 Tg in 1997. Estimates interpolated fr om the RAINS-ASIA computer model suggest a value for 1997 of 46.4 Tg| assuming no major changes in emission abatement policies after 1990. The reduction in the 1997 value| by some 16%| is primarily due to regulatory requirements and other trends toward lower sulfur content of oil products and coal. A slowdown in the growth of emissions in China - due to a reduction in economic growth| the mining of higher-quality coals| enhanced environmental awareness| and a reduction in industrial coal use - has been instrumental in arresting the growth of Asian emissions. Most of the positive developments have occurred in East Asia| and high-emission growth rates persist in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. The outlook for the future is that Asian SO2 emissions may well peak in the region of 40-45 Tg by the year 2020 or earlier| in contrast to previous predictions of 2020 emissions as high as 80-110 Tg. The trends developed in this paper are good news for the local and regional environment| particularly in East Asia. However| they also signify lower-than-anticipated concentrations of sulfate aerosol over the Asian continent| with the resulting possibility of greater-than-anticipated regional and global warming. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5347,2000,3,3,Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6): Global environmental effects and toxic byproduct formation,This work provides information concerning possible global environmental implications and personnel safety aspects that should be considered during the commercial uses of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). SF6 is an anthropogenically produced compound| mainly used as a gaseous dielectric in gas insulated switchgear power installations. It is a potent greenhouse gas with a high global warming potential| and its concentration in the earth atmosphere is rapidly increasing. During its working cycle| SF6 decomposes under electrical stress| forming toxic byproducts that are a health threat for working personnel in the event of exposure. Several precautions are recommended to avoid personnel exposure to toxic byproducts: oxyfluoride levels or other byproduct concentrations in the operating gas matrix should be traced to predetermine the overall gas toxicity; contaminants should be systematically considered during maintenance| chamber evacuation and system opening process; small SF6 quantities leaking into air or stagnated pollutant concentrations in the operating field should be analyzed and compared to the threshold limit values and permissible exposure levels. New system design rules (i.e.| hermetically sealed gas compartments| gas recycling or disposal in the field area) and different handling policies-both during maintenance and final disposal-now should be considered globally to provide for environmental and personnel safety.
5248,2000,4,3,Surficial processes and CO2 flux in soil ecosystem,Global warming as a result of rising levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration has become an issue of increasing environmental concerns. This study is to estimate the role of surficial processes| including solar radiation| air temperature| relative humidity| rainfall| soil water movement and heat flux| and soil respiration| on CO2 diffusive flux into the atmosphere from a soil ecosystem. An existing one-dimensional mathematical model for the simultaneous movement and transport of water| heat| and CO2 through the unsaturated soil is modified for the purpose of this study. Two simulation scenarios (i.e. daily and monthly) are performed to estimate the CO2 flux through the soil ecosystem. Simulation results show that surficial processes have decisive effects on CO2 flux through the soil ecosystem. Of the processes examined in this study| solar radiation is one of the most important processes. It governs the daily cycles of soil temperature and water evaporation| which in turn controls the soil CO2 production rates| and thereby the CO2 flux into the atmosphere. Rainfall is another important process that controls the monthly CO2 flux. It determines the soil water content available for biological respiration and the air-filled pore spaces available for CO2 flux. Daily cycles of the soil CO2 production rate are similar to those of the surface temperature| but the overall magnitude decreases consecutively in response to the increase in soil water content. Soil CO2 production rate is controlled by both soil temperature and soil water content. As the soil water content decreases| the overall CO2 production rate is expected to decrease. The pattern of CO2 flux is more or less similar to that of the surface soil temperature (i.e. increasing during the day and decreasing during the night)| but the overall magnitude decreases consecutively over time. The daily variations of surface CO2 flux are driven by soil temperature| whereas the overall increase in CO2 flux rate is due to the increase in CO2 concentration immediately beneath the soil surface. This study suggests that surficial processes play an ultimate role in soil CO2 flux into the atmosphere. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3123,2000,2,2,Sustainable development| human induced global climate change| and the health of children,In this short article we introduce the concept of sustainable development and its significance to child health using climate change as an example. Environmental issues| in the long term| are as important to children's health as smoking| accidents| and poor parenting are in the short term| yet have hitherto had little publicity or discussion within paediatric circles. What is happening to children's health in the world? In the developed world cardiovascular disease| diabetes| cancer| and dental disease are all on the increase| while in the developing world malnutrition| infectious disease| and injuries are still rife. At present| inequalities of health and wealth—both within and between nations—appear to be increasing|1 with an adverse impact on children's health. The Ottawa charter for health promotion states that the fundamental conditions for health are peace| shelter| education| food| income| a stable ecosystem| sustainable resources| social justice| and equity.2 The evidence for the connections among the environment| the economy| and social change are compelling and any change within one inevitably affects the others.
5204,2000,5,3,Termination of global warmth at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary through productivity feedback,The onset of the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum (about 55 Myr ago) was marked by global surface temperatures warming by 5-7 degrees C over approximately 30|000 yr (ref. 1)| probably because of enhanced mantle outgassing(2|3) and the pulsed release of similar to 1|500 gigatonnes of methane carbon from decomposing gas-hydrate reservoirs(4-7). The aftermath of this rapid| intense and global warming event may be the best example in the geological record of the response of the Earth to high atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and high temperatures. This response has been suggested to include an intensified flux of organic carbon from the ocean surface to the deep ocean and its subsequent burial through biogeochemical feedback mechanisms(8). Here we present firm evidence for this view from two ocean drilling cores| which record the largest accumulation rates of biogenic barium-indicative of export palaeoproductivity-at times of maximum global temperatures and peak excursion values of delta(13)C. The unusually rapid return of delta(13)C to values similar to those before the methane release(7) and the apparent coupling of the accumulation rates of biogenic barium to temperature| suggests that the enhanced deposition of organic matter to the deep sea may have efficiently cooled this greenhouse climate by the rapid removal of excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. 3053,2000,3,3,The cost of carbon retention by reduced impact logging,Reduced impact logging (RIL) is one means of reducing the carbon emissions held responsible for global warming. It may also reduce other adverse logging effects. A study of RIL's effects in Sabah| Malaysia| found 44% reduction of area logged within a tract| 22% reduction in timber yield per logged hectare| and 18% increase in cost per m(3) logged compared with conventional logging (CL). Estimated timber yield at the next harvest was 31% higher following RIL. Compared with unlogged forest| RIL damaged rattan| wildlife| soil and water quality values less than did CL. However| RIL's environmental benefits per area of forest logged are considerably compromised by the greater logging area required for st given timber yield. Doing RIL in place of CL had a net cost per unit area at all rates of discount. Per m3 of timber logged| RIL was beneficial without discounting| but had a net cost at a 2% discount rate and higher The overall cost of RIL's superior carbon retention varied with both discount rate and level of analysis| from negative price to more than US$ 50 per megagram at a 10% discount rate. RIL appears most cost-effective on a per m3 logged basis at low discount rates. However| at commonly applied discount rates (4% and above) RIL's carbon price exceeds most published estimates for carbon prices. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3068,2000,4,4,The decline of forest productivity as stands age: a model-based method for analysing causes for the decline,For closed canopy forests| both above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) and wood yield decline as stands age. However the physiological mechanisms responsible for the decline are not well understood. Understanding of the causes of the decline and incorporation of aging mechanisms into models of forest production are essential both for sound forest management and for reliable prediction of changes in terrestrial carbon storage under altered climates. To investigate causes for declining net primary productivity (NPP) an ecosystem model G'DAY was modified to include aging mechanisms associated with three main current hypotheses for NPP decline. These hypotheses are: (1) sapwood maintenance respiration increases as stands age| reducing the availability of carbon to support growth; (2) stomatal conductance and hence photosynthetic rates decline; and (3) soil nitrogen availability declines due to nitrogen (N) accumulation in woody litter. A model-based method was developed for determining the relative importance of three mechanisms for NPP decline in forest stands. The method involves a decomposition of simulated model output into three components| each related to one aging mechanism. The method is illustrated by parameterizing G'DAY for young (40 year-old) and mature (245 year-old) stands of Pinus contorta in Colorado USA. Results from this method of analysis indicate that: 1. The G'DAY model without aging mechanisms cannot reproduce the observed changes in NPP as stands age. When the above three aging mechanisms are switched off| G'DAY shows only transient changes in NPP lasting less than 20 years. When the aging mechanisms are incorporated in G'DAY| the model simulates declining NPP on a scale similar to that observed in the field. 2. The gradual decline in NPP following canopy closure is sensitive to assumptions about aging mechanisms and is particularly sensitive to assumptions about soil N availability and declining photosynthetic rates. We identified key areas of model uncertainty requiring further experimental clarification. Here we highlight two inadequately understood processes: soil N immobilization associated with woody litter accumulation and changes in carbon allocation as stands develop. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5171,2000,2,3,The economics of the greenhouse effect: evaluating the climate change impact due to the transport sector in Italy,The transport sector significantly contributes to energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions| accounting for about one-third of the total carbon dioxide emissions in OECD countries. In this paper the issues of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in the transport sector in Italy are addressed. A comparative static approach is applied for the years 1980 and 1995. A decomposition scheme is proposed in order to highlight the main factors determining the variation of carbon dioxide emissions over the period. Then| an evaluation of the impact of the transport sector in terms of global warming is attempted| using some monetary estimates. Results indicate that the main driving force of the variation of carbon dioxide emissions in Italy is the growth in GDP. Total global warming damage caused by the transport sector in Italy ranges from 0.02 to 0.1% of GDP. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 3070,2000,2,3,The effect of global climate change on the regions of tropical convection in CSM1,The impact of enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations on deep tropical convection (DTC) is explored using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM 1) model. A 134-year simulation in which CO concentrations increase 1 % year(-l) is analyzed. With approximately present-day CO2 concentrations (367 ppmv) the CSM1 simulation captures the observed relationship between outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and sea-surface temperature (SST) in the tropics. The temperature threshold for deep convection in the model is approximately 24.75 degrees C. As CO2 concentrations increase| the simulated threshold temperature for tropical convection progressively increases to similar to 25.55 degrees C and 26.55 degrees C at 2xCO(2) (year 80) and 3.4xC0(2) (year 133). The fully coupled climate model response to increased CO2 concentrations implies that the expansion of the 26 degrees C isotherm| the present-day observed threshold| wilt not yield an expansion of the regions of DTC. 5345,2000,2,4,The effect of ration on acclimation to environmental acidity in rainbow trout,Freshwater salmonids exposed to low environmental pH typically suffer a net loss of ions| primarily Na+ and Cl-| across the gills| resulting in reduced plasma and tissue ion concentrations. However| in recent experiments in our laboratory| juvenile rainbow trout| Oncorhynchus mykiss| fed a ration of 1% body weight d(-1) or greater showed no ionoregulatory disturbance during chronic| sublethal acidification. This raised the possibility that these fish had acclimated to low pH in that they would be better able to withstand further| more severe acidification than fish that had no prior experience of acid conditions: previous studies had concluded that such acclimation does not occur. This hypothesis was tested by measuring unidirectional ion fluxes during a 24 h acute acid challenge (pH 4.2) in juvenile rainbow trout that had previously been exposed to either ambient pH 6.2 (naive fish) or sublethal low pH 5.2 (acid pre-exposed fish) for 90 days| and fed a ration of either 1.0 or 0.25% d(-1) (wet basis). No mortalities were observed during the acute acid challenge in the fish fed the higher ration and no differences between the two groups in the response of Na+ fluxes were observed. Sodium influx in both groups was significantly inhibited throughout the challenge and Na+ net flux was significantly stimulated over the first 6 h. Prior to the acute acid challenge| the fish fed the lower ration that had previously been exposed to pH 5.2 had significantly lower plasma ion concentrations than those fish previously exposed to pH 6.2. Both groups suffered mortalities; those of the naive fish (22% by 24 h) being markedly lower than those of the acid pre-exposed fish (68% by 24 h). However| there were no significant differences in either Na+ or Cl- fluxes between the two groups of fish during the acid challenge: both showed significant inhibition of ion influxes and significantly greater net ion losses| resulting in reduced plasma ion concentrations. These results indicate that rainbow trout are unable to acclimate to environmental acidification irrespective of the availability of dietary salts. 5169,2000,2,4,The effects of subgrid-scale parameterizations in a zonally averaged ocean model,Isopycnal diffusion and an additional transport velocity parameterizing the effect of mesoscale eddies are implemented in the ocean component of a 2.5-dimensional zonally averaged coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The equilibrium states of the coupled ocean-atmosphere model| resulting from the different mixing parameterizations| are compared| and extensive parameter sensitivity studies are presented. For the equilibrium base states| the new mixing schemes result in changes in the distributions of temperature and salinity that are significant in the Southern Ocean| where the isopycnal surfaces are steep and the eddy-induced transport velocity approximately cancels the Deacon cell. The temperature and salinity changes are relatively small in the rest of the ocean. Furthermore| the implementation of the new mixing schemes results in significant changes in the strength and the pattern of the thermohaline circulation. Transient responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in global warming scenarios are compared for the different mixing parameterizations. It is demonstrated that large changes in the stability of the thermohaline circulation occur and that the observed changes in stability are highly parameter dependent. 5177,2000,3,3,The future of nuclear energy in Europe,7Are concerns about global warming of the Earth's atmosphere going to rekindle interest in nuclear power and in building new nuclear power plants in Europe? As a consequence of the discussions about the climate| the use of nuclear power as an important energy source is currently being re-evaluated| finds Dr. Wolf-J. Schmidt-Kiister| Secretary General of FORATOM| the European Atomic Forum| headquartered in Brussels. In his article| he argues that a renaissance of nuclear power will be possible also in Europe once politics supports resuming an unbiased discussion of all topics associated with the energy problem. Europe must face two problems in the energy sector for which solutions must be found: the growing dependence on fossil energy resources| and the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions| especially those of carbon dioxide. Nuclear power is already making a sizable contribution towards the solution of these problems| but its future potential has hardly been tapped. Public acceptance of nuclear power shows that the intention to opt out of the peaceful uses of nuclear power is not based on an identical attitude of the public| but is motivated politically| finding only little public support| as in the cases of Sweden and Germany. 5352,2000,4,4,The generation of CO2 in sewage sludge treatment systems: life cycle assessment,Life cycle assessment (LCA) on total sewage sludge treatment systems including thickening. anaerobic digestion| dewatering| and incineration/melting was performed to estimate a global warming impact as carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. As representative processes for the assessment| the most typical and widely used processes were selected. Generally. the life cycle of actual treatment facilities consists of three stages: construction. operation and dismantlement. In this study| the amount of CO2 produced from the life cycle steps of existing unit sludge treatment processes| was calculated by inventory analysis of input materials. In addition| for all processes investigated| individual CO2 emission units (CEUs)| i.e. the amount of emitted CO2 for treating a unit weight of sludge| were also calculated. By using the obtained CEU matrix| it was possible to simulate the CO2 production from various types of complex treatment systems as well as to trace the dominant cause of CO2 production in individual treatment processes. 3075,2000,2,4,The global spread of malaria in a future| warmer world,The frequent warnings that global climate change will allow falciparum malaria to spread into northern Latitudes| including Europe and Large parts of the United States| are based on biological transmission models driven principally by temperature. These models were assessed for their value in predicting present| and therefore future| malaria distribution. In an alternative statistical approach| the recorded present-day global distribution of falciparum malaria was used to establish the current multivariate climatic constraints. These results were applied to future climate scenarios to predict future distributions| which showed remarkably few changes| even under the most extreme scenarios. 5182,2000,4,4,The heat sources and sinks of the 1986-87 El Nino,The heat balance of the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere system during the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) period (1985-89) is analyzed in an attempt to better understand the heat sources and sinks of the 1986-87 El Nino. The analysis involves the use of radiation data from ERBE| circulation statistics from National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis| and the assimilated data for the Pacific ocean. Accumulation of heat in the equatorial upper ocean is found prior to the onset of the 1986-87 El Nino. The accumulated heat in the equatorial upper ocean comes from the surface heating| which exceeds the poleward transport of heat in the upper ocean. The accumulated heat in the upper ocean resurfaces in the eastern Pacific and the 1986-87 El Nino warming develops. The warming results in a substantial increase in the equator-to-pole heat transport in the equatorial ocean. The ocean warming is also accompanied by a significant increase in the poleward transport of energy in the atmosphere and a significant reduction in the surface heat Aux into the equatorial ocean| though these changes are smaller than the increases in the poleward heat transport in the ocean. Because of the feedbacks from water vapor and clouds| the variations in the net radiative energy flux at the top of the atmosphere are small and the surface heat flux into the equatorial ocean is mainly modulated by the poleward transport of energy in the atmosphere| which is in turn modulated by the intensity of the cold tongue. The anomalous poleward ocean heat transport does not stop right at the time when the surface warming is terminated| and this "overshooting" pushes the equatorial ocean to a cold state-the 1988-89 La Nina-during which the poleward transport in the atmosphere and ocean is reduced and heat starts to accumulate in the upper ocean again. The coupled system is then in a situation similar to 1985 and is preparing for the onset of another El Nino. The results suggest that ENSO system behaves like a heat pump: the equatorial ocean absorbs heat during the cold phase and pushes the heat to the subtropical ocean during the warm phase. This picture for El Nino implies that the surface heat flux into the equatorial ocean may be a driving force of El Nino. The relationship between this picture for El Nino and the delayed oscillator hypothesis is explored. An explanation for the absence of El Nino in the tropical Atlantic ocean is offered by noting that the zonal width of the basin limits the amount of heat that can be accumulated in the upper ocean. The implication of the present findings for the response of El Nino to global warming is discussed. 5232,2000,4,5,The influence of cosmic terrestrial clouds and global warming,We analyse the new ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) D2 cloud data to ascertain whether or not a connection between cosmic ray flux and cloud cover exists. Despite a previous finding that total cloud factor and cosmic ray fluxes were correlated| our results indicate that only the low-level cloud follows solar activity over the full period| 1983-1994. Using several proxies for solar activity and the radiative forcing calculated by Ockert-Bell (1992) for the ISCCP cloud types| we estimate the possible impact that such a solar-terrestrial connection may have on climate. We conclude that| possibly excluding the most recent decades| much of the warming of the past century can be quantitatively accounted for by the direct and indirect effects of solar activity.
5168,2000,3,4,The Kyoto protocol and payments for tropical forest: An interdisciplinary method for estimating carbon-offset supply and increasing the feasibility of a carbon market under the CDM,Protecting tropical forests under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) could reduce the cost of emissions limitations set in Kyoto. However| while society must soon decide whether or not to use tropical forest-based offsets| evidence regarding tropical carbon sinks is sparse. This paper presents a general method for constructing an integrated model (based on detailed historical| remote sensing and field data) that can produce land-use and carbon baselines| predict carbon sequestration supply to a carbon-offsets market and also help to evaluate optimal market rules. Creating such integrated models requires close collaboration between social and natural scientists. Our project combines varied disciplinary expertise (in economics| ecology and geography) with local knowledge in order to create high-quality| empirically grounded| integrated models for Costa Rica. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. Ail rights reserved. 5288,2000,2,4,The large carbon emission from terrestrial ecosystems in 1998: A model simulation,The relationship between the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and climate anomalies in 1998| the warmest year since 1860| was investigated by means of a mechanistic global biosphere model (Sim-CYCLE) based on the plant-production theory. We simulated the monthly time-series and spatial distribution of atmosphere-biosphere CO2 exchange from 1961 to 1998| based on the Sim-CYCLE by inputting the NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis climate data at the spatial resolution of T62 (containing 5828 land pixels after the Matthews biome map). The peculiar climate conditions in 1998| i.e.| strong ENSO event and global warming (+0.58 degrees C above the long-term mean)| resulted in a remarkable anomaly (as much as 2.7 Pg C yr(-1) of net emission) via the accelerated plant respiration and soil decomposition. The strong sources were in eastern Siberia| northern South America| and South Africa. This anomaly| equivalent to +1.26 ppmv yr(-1) of an increase rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration| can be a major cause of the extraordinarily high CO2 increase rate in 1998. 5329,2000,3,3,The National Academy of Sciences offers a new framework for addressing global warming issues,The recent landmark report by the National Academy of Sciences reviewed the science on which the Kyoto Protocol was based. NAS concluded that the policy choices and the mandatory reductions in greenhouse gases by the developed nations were based on incomplete science with significant uncertainties. In view of these uncertainties the NAS report developed a comprehensive strategic 10-year research program to address the basic issue of whether human activity that results in environmental changes is responsible for climate changes. The report provides a new framework for consideration of global warming issues. The UN International Panel on Climate Change (the UN science advisor) in its 1997 report to the Kyoto parties pointed out the confusing difference between scientific usage of the term "climate change" that distinguishes human from natural causes of change and the official usage that combines natural and human causes of changes in climate. The conclusion of the UN panel on human causes is equivocal. The 1999 report of the U.S. Global Science Research Committee also reached an equivocal conclusion on human causes and announced a 10-year research program to be developed in consultation with NAS| The precautionary measures provided in the 1992 UN Framework Convention differ from the ill defined "precautionary principle" based on fear of uncertainty| and are consistent with the objectives of the NAS proposed research program|These developments together with the third report of the UN Intergovernmental Science Panel on developments in climate science due in 2001 merit consideration by the convention of the parties under the Kyoto Protocol. (C) 2000 Academic Press. 3118,2000,2,4,The potential impacts of global climate change on spring-maize growth in Shenyang,Physiological ecology simulation modelling of maize growth (MPESM) was used to simulate the variation of soil moisture| maize development and maize growth under twelve prescribed climate scenarios| which include doubling CO2| raising mean temperature by 1.5 degrees C| 3.0 degrees C and 4.5 degrees C| and changing precipitation by 0| + 20%| - 20%| and - 40%. The simulated results were compared with that of the present climate| to assess the sensitivity of maize to climatic change. The analysis indicated that soil moisture is sensitive to reduced precipitation| maize development is sensitive to the rise of temperature| and maize growth is affected greatly by temperature elevation and precipitation variation| which cancel out the positive effects of CO2 elevation. It was found that with the severe change of climate| the leaf biomass| the female fringe biomass| and the leaf area index would decline greatly| and the biomass of stem and root would increase greatly. The average yield of maize will decline between 5% and 30%. 5311,2000,4,2,The record breaking global temperatures of 1997 and 1998: Evidence for an increase in the rate of global warming?,During the time between May of 1997 and September of 1998| for sixteen consecutive months| each month broke the previous monthly all-rime record high temperature. Using autoregressive intervention moving average (ARMA) models in a series of Monte Carlo experiments the probability of such an event was analyzed for various rates of temperature change. The string of record-breaking global temperatures could not be readily explained by the best fit linear increase of temperature since the late 1970's (2 degrees C/Century)| although the event was not implausible (probabilities slightly less than 5%). The 1997-98 event could signal yet another change point in the rate of global temperature increase| but the warming rate over the past few decades is already comparable to that projected during the 21st Century based on IPCC business as usual scenarios of anthropogenic climate change (Kattenberg ct al.| 1996). 5369,2000,4,4,The response of climatic jump in summer in North China to global warming,To reveal climatic variation over North China| the climatic jump in summer in Beijing are analyzed using the data of precipitation of summer (June. July| August) during the period of 1841-1993| in which those missed before 1950 were reconstructed by the stepwise regression method with minimum forecast error. The climatic jumps at different scales are analyzed using different diagnostic methods with different decade (10-100 years) windows. Some new methods and ideas are proposed. The variance difference. the linear tendency difference| and the difference of power spectral distribution between the samples before and after the period at the moving point in the center of the series are compared with other methods (fbr example| Mann-Kendall test| t-test| and accumulative anomaly etc.). Considering the differences among the statistics above| a synthetic jump index is also proposed in order to get the definite jump points in the moving series. The results show that the climatic jumps in the area occurred in the 1890s. the 1910s and the 1920s| and mostly in the 1920s| which suggests that the local climatic: jumps in North China have I simultaneous response to the global warming in the hundred-year scales. 3129,2000,2,4,The role of the Southern Ocean in uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide,An ocean-climate model that shows high fluxes of anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the Southern Ocean| but very Low storage of anthropogenic carbon there| agrees with observation-based estimates of ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. This low simulated storage indicates a subordinate role for deep convection in the present-day Southern Ocean. The primary mechanism transporting anthropogenic carbon out of the Southern Ocean is isopycnal transport. These results imply that if global climate change reduces the density of surface waters in the Southern Ocean| isopycnal surfaces that now outcrop may become isolated from the atmosphere| tending to diminish Southern Ocean carbon uptake. 5363,2000,4,3,The role of the sun in climate forcing,The Sun is by far the most important driving force of the climate system. However| only little is known how variable this force is acting on different time scales ranging from minutes to millennia and how the climate system reacts to changes in this forcing. Changes of the global insolation can be related to the nuclear fusion in the core of the Sun| the energy transport through the radiative zone and the convection zone| the emission of radiation from the photosphere| and the distance between Sun and Earth. Satellite based measurements over two decades show a clear correlation between the solar irradiance and the Ii-year sunspot cycle. The irradiance amplitude is about 0.1%. This is too small to affect significantly the climate. However| there are indications that| on longer time scales| solar variability coluld be much larger. The analysis of cosmogenic nuclides stored in natural archives provides a means to extend our knowledge of solar variability over much longer time periods. The response of the climate system to solar forcing depends not only on the amount of radiation| but also on its spectral composition (e.g. UV contribution)| seasonal distribution over the globe| and feedback mechanisms connected with clouds| water vapour| ice cover| atmospheric and oceanic transport and other terrestrial processes. It is therefore difficult to establish a quantitative relationship between observed climate changes in the past and reconstructed solar variability. However| there is growing evidence that periods of low solar activity (so called minima) coincide with advances of glaciers| changes in lake levels| and sudden changes of climatic conditions. These findings point to an active role of the Sun in past climate changes beside other geophysical factors| internal variability of the climate system| and greenhouse gases. In fact a non-linear regression model to separate natural and anthropogenic forcing since 1850 is consistent with a solar contribution of about 40% to the global warming during the last 140 years. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5195,2000,4,3,The seasonal cycle in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models,We examine the seasonal cycle of near-surface air temperature simulated by 17 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Nine of the models use ad hoc "flux adjustment" at the ocean surface to bring model simulations close to observations of the present-day climate. We group flux-adjusted and non-flux-adjusted models separately and examine the behaviol- of each class. When averaged over all of the flux-adjusted model simulations| near-surface air temperature falls within 2 K of observed values over the oceans. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models shows errors up to similar to6 K in extensive ocean areas. Flux adjustments are not directly applied over land| and near-surface land temperature errors are substantial in the average over flux-adjusted models| which systematically underestimates (by similar to5 K) temperature in areas of elevated terrain. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models forms a similar error pattern (with somewhat increased amplitude) over land. We use the temperature difference between July and January to measure seasonal cycle amplitude. Zonal means of this quantity from the individual flux-adjusted models form a fairly tight cluster (all within similar to 30% of the mean) centered on the observed values. The nonflux-adjusted models perform nearly as well at most latitudes. In Southern Ocean mid-latitudes| however| the non-flux-adjusted models overestimate the magnitude of January-minus-July temperature differences by similar to5 K due to an overestimate of summer (January) near-surface temperature. This error is common to five of the eight non-flux-adjusted models. Also| over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land areas| zonal mean differences between July and January temperatures simulated by the non-flux-adjusted models show a greater spread (positive and negative) about observed values than results from the flux-adjusted models. Elsewhere| differences between the two classes of models are less obvious. At no latitude is the zonal mean difference between averages over the two classes of models greater than the standard deviation over models. The ability of coupled GCMs to simulate a reasonable seasonal cycle is a necessary condition for confidence in their prediction of long-term climatic changes (such as global warming)| but it is not a sufficient condition unless the seasonal cycle and long-term changes involve similar climatic processes. To test this possible connection| we compare seasonal cycle amplitude with equilibrium warming under doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide for the models in our data base. A small but positive correlation exists between these two quantities. This result is predicted by a simple conceptual model of the climate system| and it is consistent with other modeling experience| which indicates that the seasonal cycle depends only weakly on climate sensitivity. 5373,2000,2,4,The sustainability of the water industry in a regulated environment,A complex regulatory system now governs the privatised water industry in England and Wales. There is now a key question as to whether this system is adequate to ensure that the government's aim of sustainability can be achieved. Sustainability policies need to be considered in the light of the international| European and national initiatives| and many of these will impact on the water industry in England and Wales. Two areas are highlighted as of particular importance. The first concerns water resources and how water abstraction| leakage and flooding can be controlled alongside the corresponding uncertainty of global warming. Second| the issue of bathing water quality demonstrates problems of financing improvement programmes| and the adequacy of current programmes in ensuring a cleaner bathing water environment for the next generation. The issues have to be considered alongside the mechanisms and procedures for reaching decisions under the present regulatory framework. These decision-making structures will prove central to any robust sustainability for the water industry. 3133,2000,3,3,The urban environment and health in a world of increasing globalization: issues for developing countries,Urban living is the keystone of modern human ecology. Cities have multiplied and expanded rapidly worldwide over the past two centuries. Cities are sources of creativity and technology| and they are the engines for economic growth. However| they are also sources of poverty| inequality| and health hazards from the environment. Urban populations have long been incubators and gateways for infectious diseases. The early industrializing period of unplanned growth and laissez-faire economic activity in cities in industrialized countries has been superseded by the rise of collective management of the urban environment. This occurred in response to environmental blight| increasing literacy| the development of democratic government| and the collective accrual of wealth. In many low-income countries| this process is being slowed by the pressures and priorities of economic globalization. Beyond the traditional risks of diarrhoeal disease and respiratory infections in the urban poor and the adaptation of various vector-borne infections to urbanization| the urban environment poses various physicochemical hazards. These include exposure to lead| air pollution| traffic hazards| and the "urban hear| island" amplification of heatwaves. As the number of urban consumers and their material expectations rise and as the use of fossil fuels increases| cities contribute to the large-scale pressures on the biosphere including climate change. We must develop policies that ameliorate the existing| and usually unequally distributed| urban environmental health hazards and larger-scale environmental problems. 5198,2000,3,4,The use of economic instruments and green taxes to complement an environmental regulatory regime,In 1999| some countries are developing and effectively applying economic instruments for environmental protection and natural resource management| whilst others are relying on command and control regulatory procedures under-enforced by sometimes inadequately trained and motivated enforcement officers. This paper considers the current and future role of economic instruments as policy instruments for use by governments. In many developed countries| past over-regulation allied to a serious shortfall of experienced environmental enforcers required regulatory regimes to be supplemented by well targeted economic instruments and green taxes. Their application to countries which do not have developed environmental control systems is more questionable. The purported threats of the longer term effects of global warming| damage to the ozone layer and an apparent loss of biodiversity have led environmentalists to adopt the so-called precautionary principle. Sustainable development has added to the pressures for further national and transfrontier legislation. The challenge facing policymakers| therefore| is to design policies to enable market forces to operate in the environmental sphere| for example through a system of pollution charges| principally intended to promote greater environmental efficiency. These charging systems can be of many kinds but their main defining feature is their reliance on markets and the price mechanism to internalise environmental externalities| thereby attempting to make polluters pay through facing the full social costs of their activities. Some of the applications of these charging systems| financial and fiscal instruments and tradable emission systems are explained and illustrated. 5382,2000,3,3,The use of LCA for the environmental evaluation of the recycling of galvanised steel,Life Cycle Assessment has been used to compare the environmental performance of landfilling of the zinc used for galvanising steel with recycling by a number processes. Hypothetical process routes were composed involving three different EAF dust treatment processes| Waelz kiln| DC-furnace| and EZINEX| as well as scrap dezincing. The study shows that recycling of zinc used for galvanising steel clearly has environmental benefits in that it saves zinc resources. However| zinc recovery does not necessarily decrease the potential impact on global warming and acidification. The magnitude of these two impact categories is tightly correlated with the amount and type of primary energy consumed in a process. Due to the high electricity consumption in the dezincing process| this route has the highest impact on Global Warming Potential as well as Acidification Potential. The major part of the energy requirement for the production of zinc from primary and secondary sources is consumed in the reduction of ZnO to Zn. The consequence is that the theoretically possible saving in primary energy by recycling zinc-containing materials is relatively small. The impact categories land use and waste generation are not considered in this study| but most likely the evaluation of such impacts would further increase the potential environmental impact of the landfill alternative. The results also show that the location of an electricity-intensive process highly affects the potential environmental impact. Comparing process and material alternatives in LCA studies where branch average data is used is therefore considerably more complex than when ICA is used within a company. 5246,2000,3,4,Thermoacoustic cooling for surface combatants,Thermoacoustic cooling technology uses high amplitude acoustic standing waves in inert gasses to pump heat It requires no toxic| ozone-depleting| or global warming gasses and has few or no moving Parts| no sliding seals and requires no lubrication for robust and very low maintenance operation. Thermoacoustic cooling units have been demonstrated aboard the Space Shuttle in 1992 and aboard the USS Deyo (DD 989) in 1995 to cool radar electronics. Currently| a 3-ton electrically driven unit is being built for shipboard application. This 3-ton unit will enable the ship designer to provide greater combat system survivability through distributed system architecture and reduced manning by unit simplicity and resulting high reliability. Additionally| waste heat cooling is an emerging thermoacoustic technology that could utilize stack gas heat from main gas turbine engines or from gas turbines generators to create shipboard cooling. The benefits of this waste heat cooling is lower infrared (IR) signature and reduced fuel consumption.
5174,2000,3,4,Total costs and benefits of biomass in selected regions of the European Union,The paper describes results of the BioCosts project in which a comprehensive analysis of the economic and environmental performance of the energy use of biomass was carried out for selected existing facilities throughout the European Union. It is demonstrated that the appropriately organized use of biofuels has significant environmental advantages compared to the use of fossil fuels. Mitigation of global warming is the largest single incentive to use biofuels| However| only a few technologies are economically competitive under prevailing conditions| while others lead to up to 100% higher energy production costs than fossil fuels. Employment effects of using biofuels are small but positive. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5384,2000,3,2,Toward a strategic plan for transportation-air quality research| 2000-2010,The challenge of jointly addressing transportation and air quality concerns has been the subject of research for some time| but it reached its apex after passage of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 and the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991. Since that time| the legislative and regulatory context that prompted extensive research has been in continual flux| leading to ever-new areas even as the original agenda set in the early 1990s has yet to be completed. Critical relationships between transportation behavior and air quality impacts have yet to be clarified| and more data and better analytical tools will be necessary before greater understanding is achieved. The advent of new strategies related to telecommuting| e-commerce| vehicle insurance| car sharing| and "sustainability" poses serious questions for the research community. Concurrently| new challenges abound spawned from current and future developments. New air quality standards have redefined the meaning of "clean" air. Air toxics loom as the next focus area from the 1990 amendments. New vehicle and fuel standards are being adopted. Greenhouse gases and global warming pose particular challenges for transportation| but radically new vehicle-fuel systems for cars| trucks| and buses show promise that the transportation community can again rise to meet these challenges. Knowing where the greatest air quality problems exist and how best to address them is the stuff of cutting-edge research| which will pose a challenge into the next decade. It is an exciting time to be in transportation and air quality. 5268,2000,3,3,Transition to CFC-free metered dose inhalers - into the new millennium,Metered dose inhalers (MDIs) are the most popular vehicle for drug delivery into the lungs and some 500 million are manufactured each year. All MDIs marketed prior to 1995 contained chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) as a propellant. These are implicated in the depletion of stratospheric ozone and| except for specific exemptions| their production has been banned since 1996 under the terms of the Montreal Protocol. Hydrofluoroalkanes have been identified as suitable alternatives for MDI propellants but their physico-chemical properties differ significantly from CFCs and an extensive redevelopment and testing programme has been required to demonstrate the safety| quality and efficacy of HFA containing MDIs. Hydrofluoroalkanes contribute to global warming but the benefit to human health through continued MDI availability currently outweighs the environmental concern. Several HFA-MDIs have reached the market and the transition to replace existing CFC-MDIs is now underway. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5334,2000,3,4,Tropodegradable fluorocarbon replacements for ozone-depleting and global-warming chemicals,Incorporation of certain molecular features into fluorocarbons can decrease the tropospheric lifetime| providing commercially applicable chemicals with low global warming and stratospheric ozone impacts. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. 5274,2000,4,4,Twentieth-century change in the climate record for the Front Range| Colorado| USA,The long-term climate records of the Mountain Research Station (MRS) at the University of Colorado cover a range of elevations from the lower montane forest zone (similar to 2000-2400 m)| through the upper montane forest (similar to 2400-2800 m) and subalpine forest (similar to 2800-3300 m) to the alpine tundra (>3300 m) on Niwot Ridge| Colorado. Temperature records from all four MRS sites and the additional high plains site of Longmont (1509 m) are analyzed for the period 1952-1997| after extraction of much extra data from the original thermograph charts. The records are adjusted for instrumental changes where necessary and all four records are judged to be homogenous. Contrasting temporal trends are uncovered at the various elevations with warming at middle elevations and absolute cooling above the treeline in the alpine tundra. The resulting increased surface-based lapse rates do not arise from changes in relative frequencies of airflow types as is shown by a synoptic analysis based on objective airflow indices. Lapse rate increases are most systematic for synoptic classes with westerly components and during fall| winter| and spring. Climate at high elevations of the Front Range appears to be responding in an unusual way to global-warming influences. 5269,2000,2,4,Twentieth-century storm activity along the US east coast,It has been speculated that future global warming will change the frequency and severity of tropical and extratropical storms. The U.S. east coast is heavily impacted by such storms| so it is important to determine their natural temporal variability for the last century during which global warming has been relatively small. Storm surge data obtained from hourly tide gauge records provide a unique quantitative measure of storm duration and intensity| unlike qualitative estimates based on eyewitness reports or meteorological hindcasts. To demonstrate the potential of storm surge data for climate analysis| the authors have evaluated 10 very long records of water level anomalies. An analysis of the hourly tide gauge records along the U.S| east coast shows a considerable interdecadal variation but no discernible long-term trend in the number and intensity of moderate and severe coastal storms during this century. However| sea level rise over the last century has exacerbated the damage to fixed structures from modern storms that would have been relatively minor a century ago. 5291,2000,2,3,Ultra-enhanced spring branch growth in CO2-enriched trees: can it alter the phase of the atmosphere's seasonal CO2 cycle?,Since the early 1960s| the declining phase of the atmosphere's seasonal CO2 cycle has advanced by approximately 7 days in northern temperate latitudes| possibly as a result of increasing temperatures that may be advancing the time of occurrence of what may be called 'climatological spring.' However| just as several different phenomena are thought to have been responsible for the concomitant increase in the amplitude of the atmosphere's seasonal CO2 oscillation| so too may other factors have played a role in bringing about the increasingly earlier spring drawdown of CO2 that has resulted in the advancement of the declining phase of the air's CO2 cycle. One of these factors may be the ongoing rise in the CO2 content of the air itself; for the aerial fertilization effect of this phenomenon may be significantly enhancing the growth of each new season's initial flush of vegetation| which would tend to stimulate the early drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and thereby advance the time of occurrence of what could be called 'biological spring.' Working with sour orange (Citrus aurantium L.) trees that have been growing out-of-doors in open-top chambers for over 10 years in air of either 400 or 700 ppm CO2| this hypothesis was investigated by periodically measuring the lengths| dry weights and leaf chlorophyll concentrations of new branches that emerged from the trees at the start of the 1998 growing season. The data demonstrate that the hypothesis is viable| and that it might possibly account for 2 of the 7 days by which the spring drawdown of the air's CO2 concentration has advanced over the past few decades. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. 3102,2000,3,4,Uncertainty as information: Narrowing the science-policy gap,Conflict and indecision are hallmarks of environmental policy formulation. Some argue that the requisite information and certainty fall short of scientific standards for decision making; others argue that science is not the issue and that indecisiveness reflects a lack of political willpower. One of the most difficult aspects of translating science into policy is scientific uncertainty. Whereas scientists are familiar with uncertainty and complexity| the public and policy makers often seek certainty and deterministic solutions. We assert that environmental policy is most effective if scientific uncertainty is incorporated into a rigorous decision-theoretic framework as knowledge| not ignorance. The policies that best utilize scientific findings are defined here as those that accommodate the full scope of scientifically based predictions. 5367,2000,3,3,Uncertainty in land-use change and forestry sector mitigation options for global warming: Plantation silviculture versus avoided deforestation,How land-use change and forestry sector options can be used to mitigate global warming will depend on a variety of pending decisions regarding interpretation of the Kyoto Protocol| including treatment of uncertainty. In tropical forest countries| the allocation of effort between plantation silviculture and reduction of deforestation would be influenced by the stringency of requirements regarding certainly. Slowing deforestation offers much greater potential benefits| but the certainty associated with these is much lower than in the case of plantations. In the Brazilian case| deforestation avoidance could produce carbon benefits worth 6-45 times as much as the destructive ranching and logging uses to which the forest is now being converted. Capturing the potential value of carbon benefits from avoided deforestation will depend on increasing our understanding of the deforestation process and consequent ability to reduce the uncertainty associated with the effects of deforestation-avoidance measures. It will also depend on whether carbon credits are defined in terms of a. maximum level of uncertainty. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 3059,2000,5,4,Understanding nonlinear responses of the climate system to orbital forcing,We have recently introduced the working hypothesis that frequency modulation (FM) of the orbital eccentricity forcing may be one important source of the nonlinearities observed in delta O-18 time series from deep-sea sediment cores (J.A. Rial (1999a) Pacemaking the Ice Ages by frequency modulation of Earth's orbital eccentricity. Science 285| 564-568.) In this paper we shall discuss further evidence of frequency modulation found in data from the Vostok ice core. Analyses of the 430|000-year long| orbitally untuned| time series of CO2| deuterium| aerosol and methane| suggest frequency modulation of the 41 kyr (0.0244 kyr(-1)) obliquity forcing by the 413 kyr-eccentricity signal and its harmonics. Conventional and higher-order spectral analyses show that two distinct spectral peaks at similar to 29 kyr (0.034 kyr(-1)) and similar to 69 kyr (0.014 kyr(-1)) and other| smaller peaks surrounding the 41 kyr obliquity peak are harmonically (nonlinearly) related and likely to be FM-generated sidebands of the obliquity signal. All peaks can be closely matched by the spectrum of an appropriately built theoretical FM signal. A preliminary model| based on the classic logistic growth delay differential equation| reproduces the longer period FM effect and the familiar multiply peaked spectra of the eccentricity band. Since the FM effect appears to be a common feature in climate response| finding out its cause may help understand climate dynamics and global climate change. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5150,2000,4,4,Urbanization in the Pacific: environmental change| vulnerability and human security,The world is in the midst of a substantial urban transition| but the impacts of this on the environment and human societies are not fully understood. Very little attention has been paid to urbanization processes in developing countries with smaller populations| despite the evident problems associated with urbanization. There are both biophysical and social vulnerabilities associated with urbanization in the South Pacific and these vulnerabilities affect human security. The biophysical vulnerabilities include the fragile environments of the island nations| limited land resources| shortages of basic resources| and the risks associated with global warming. The ability to respond to these problems is constrained by social vulnerabilities| notably weak economies| difficulties associated with land ownership| and institutional limitations. There is a need for institutional reform| improved planning| better urban resource management| and greater regional cooperation| if Pacific island nations are to respond effectively to rapid urbanization and global change. 3147,2000,2,4,Vegetation variation within and among palustrine wetlands along an altitudinal gradient in KwaZulu-Natal| South Africa,The variation in graminoid species composition and diversity and the distribution of photosynthetic pathways among 66 wetlands in KwaZulu-Natal| South Africa| and within six of these wetlands was described and related to measured physical parameters| using multivariate and univariate techniques. Altitude| which ranged from 550 m to 2120 m| accounted for most variation among wetlands| with an almost complete turnover of species along this gradient. Landform setting was less important in explaining overall species composition| but relationships of individual species were revealed (e.g. Eleocharis dregeana showed an affinity for depressions). Within a wetland there was an almost complete turnover of species along a gradient of wetness| as described using soil morphological criteria. Most species were consistently associated with the same wetness zones across different wetland sites| e.g.| Phragmites australis with the wettest zone| Pycreus macranthus with the intermediate zone| and Eragrostis plana with the least wet zone. The occurrence and abundance of different photosynthetic pathway types depended on altitude and degree of wetness. At high altitudes| C-3 sedges| notably Carex acutiformis| dominated the wettest zone and C-3 and C-4 grasses and sedges dominated the intermediate and least wet zones. At mid altitudes| C-3 and C-4 sedges and C-3 grasses dominated the wettest zone| C-3 and C-4 grasses and sedges dominated the intermediate zone and C-4 grasses dominated the least wet zone. Low altitude sites showed a similar distribution of photosynthetic pathways as mid-altitude sites| but C-3 species were less abundant. Species richness was positively associated with the log of wetland size and| at the level of an individual wetland| species richness and evenness were found to be consistently greater in the intermediate and least wet zone compared with the wettest zone. The management implications of the results are discussed in the light of continuing anthropogenic loss of wetlands in the study area and global climate change. 5218,2000,4,3,Water vapor feedbacks in the ECMWF reanalyses and Hadley Centre climate model,Many studies have been made of the water vapor feedback| in both satellite data and climate model simulations. Most infer the magnitude of the feedback from the variability present in geographical distributions of the key variables| or from their seasonal variations| often using data only over the oceans. It is argued that a more direct measure of the feedback should come from the interannual variability of global mean quantities| because this timescale and space scale is more appropriate for such a global phenomenon. To investigate this suggestion| the feedback derived from the simulations of clear-sky longwave fluxes (CLERA)| which used data from the 15-yr reanalysis project of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts| is compared with simulations by the latest version of the Hadley Centre climate model. Results are taken from an integration of the atmosphere-only version of the climate model with prescribed sea surface temperatures| as well as from a control and a global warming simulation by the coupled ocean-atmosphere version. There is broad consistency between the results from CLERA and the climate model as to the strength of the feedback| although there is considerable scatter in the CLERA results. The signal of changes in the well-mixed greenhouse gases is weak in CLERA but is dominant in the global warming simulation and has to be removed in order to diagnose the water vapor feedback. This result has implications for the exploitation of long time series of satellite and other data to study this and other feedbacks. 3110,2000,4,4,Water vapor| CO2| and temperature profiles in and above a forest - Accuracy assessment of an unattended measurement system,The possibility of a global climate change has increased research interest in the least understood parts of the climate system. One of those parts is the boundary between the land surface of the earth and the lowest part of the planetary boundary layer. The structure of this layer and the exchange processes in it are still incompletely understood for a variety of situations and surfaces| especially in the boreal zone and during the dark parts of the day and the year. Progress in this area requires new data measured continuously and unattended with high accuracy and long-term reliability. A measurement system for profiles of temperature| humidity| and carbon dioxide was designed to meet the above goals. The system used thermocouples and a Li-Cor gas analyzer combined with an array of tubing to suck air from different heights. Turbulent fluctuations of water vapor and carbon dioxide concentrations were smoothed by continuous-flow mixing chambers without moving parts. Half-hourly mean differences in temperature| humidity| and CO2 were measured to better than 0.03 K| 0.015 g kg(-1) and 0.5 mu mol mol(-1)| respectively. These accuracies were confirmed by comparisons with a thermometer-interchange (reversing) system and CO2 profiles theoretically deduced from eddy-correlation fluxes. Daytime temperature and humidity differences over the full height interval (24.5-87.5 m)| as well as over the roughness sublayer part (24.5-58.5 m)| commonly exceeded the estimated errors by five times. The CO2 differences could only be measured reasonably accurately over the entire height interval (24.5-87.5 m) and then only exceeded the error by a factor of 2-3. Temperature and humidity measurements were sufficiently accurate for studies of flux-profile relationships over a forest. The CO2 profiles were accurate only for rough flux estimates and may be especially useful for nighttime studies. 5349,2000,2,3,Will changes in soil organic carbon act as a positive or negative feedback on global warming?,The world's soils contain about 1500 Gt of organic carbon to a depth of 1m and a further 900 Gt from 1-2m. A change of total soil organic carbon by just 10% would thus be equivalent to all the anthropogenic CO2 emitted over 30 years. Warming is likely to increase both the rate of decomposition and net primary production (NPP)| with a fraction of NPP forming new organic carbon. Evidence from various sources can be used to assess whether NPP or the rate of decomposition has the greater temperature sensitivity| and| hence| whether warming is likely to lead to an increase or decrease in soil organic carbon. Evidence is reviewed from laboratory-based incubations| field measurements of organic carbon storage| carbon isotope ratios and soil respiration with either naturally varying temperatures or after experimentally increasing soil temperatures. Estimates of terrestrial carbon stored at the Last Glacial Maximum are also reviewed. The review concludes that the temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition can be best described as: d(T) = exp[3.36 (T - 40)/(T + 31.79)] where d(T) is the normalised decomposition rate at temperature T (in degrees C). In this equation| decomposition rate is normalised to '1' at 40 degrees C. The review concludes by simulating the likely changes in soil organic carbon with warming. In summary| it appears likely that warming will have the effect of reducing soil organic carbon by stimulating decomposition rates more than NPP. However| increasing CO2 is likely to simultaneously have the effect of increasing soil organic carbon through increases in NPP. Any changes are also likely to be very slow. The net effect of changes in soil organic carbon on atmospheric CO2 loading over the next decades to centuries is| therefore| likely to be small. 5303,2000,2,4,Zebra mussels: Enhancement of copper toxicity by high temperature and its relationship with respiration and metabolism,Increase in water temperature from an ambient of 15 degrees C to 20 and 25 degrees C increased the respiration rate in zebra mussels| Dreissena polymorpha| by 50 and 175%| respectively| and increased the toxicity of copper; a 48-hour lethal concentration to kill 50% of the organisms (LC50) of 775 mu g/L at 20 degrees C decreased to 238 mu g/L at 25 degrees C| and a 96-hour LC50 of 487 mu g/L at 20 degrees C reduced to 107 mu g/L at 25 degrees C. The oxygen consumption rate in the presence of 150 mu g/L copper decreased by 16% at 20 degrees C and by 50% at 25 degrees C. Thus| high temperatures may increase the toxicity of copper| and possibly other metals| to zebra mussels. Similar increases in heavy metal toxicity may also accompany global warming| which is expected to raise surface water temperature by 2 to 3 degrees C. Such temperature and heavy metal combinations may also be useful in designing field trials to control this nuisance species. 3042,2001,4,4,A biome classification of China based on plant functional types and the BIOME3 model,A biome classification for China was established based on plant functional types (PFTs) using the BIOME3 model to include 16 biomes. In the eastern part of China| the PFTs of trees determine mostly the physiognomy of landscape. Biomes range from boreal deciduous coniferous forest/woodland| boreal mixed forest/woodland| temperate mixed forest| temperate broad-leaved deciduous forest| warm-temperate broad-leaved evergreen/mixed forest| warm-temperate/cool-temperate evergreen coniferous forest| xeric woodland/scrub| to tropical seasonal and rain forest| and tropical deciduous forest from north to south. In the northern and western part of China| grass is the dominant PFT. From northeast to west and southwest the biomes range from moist savannas| tall grassland| short grassland| dry savannas| arid shrubland/steppe| desert| to alpine tundra/ice/polar desert. Comparisons between the classification introduced here and the four classifications which were established over the past two decades| i.e. the vegetation classification| the vegetation division| the physical ecoregion| and the initial biome classification have showed that the different aims of biome classifications have resulted in different biome schemes each with its own unique characteristics and disadvantages for global change study. The new biome classification relies not only on climatic variables| but also on soil factor| vegetation functional variables| ecophysiological parameters and competition among the PFTs. It is a comprehensive classification that using multivariables better expresses the vegetation distribution and can be compared with world biome classifications. It can be easily used in the response study of Chinese biomes to global change| regionally and globally. 5430,2001,4,4,A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change,We compare the United States and global surface air temperature changes of the past century using the current Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis and the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) record [Karl et al.| 1990]. Changes in the GISS analysis subsequent to the documentation by Hansen et al. [1999] are as follows: (1) incorporation of corrections for time-of-observation bias and station history adjustments in the United States based on Easterling et al. [ 1996a]| (2) reclassification of rural| small-town| and urban stations in the United States| southern Canada| and northern Mexico based on satellite measurements of night light intensity [Imhoff et al.| 1997]| and (3) a more flexible urban adjustment than that employed by Hansen et al. [1999]| including reliance: on only unlit stations in the United States and rural stations in the rest of the world for determining long-term trends. We find evidence of local human effects ("urban warming") even in suburban and small-town surface air temperature records| but the effect is modest in magnitude and conceivably could be an artifact of inhomogeneities in the station records. We suggest further studies| including more complete satellite night light analyses. which may clarify the potential urban effect. There are inherent uncertainties in the long-term temperature change at least of the order of 0.1 degreesC for both the U.S. mean and the global mean. Nevertheless| it is clear that the post- 1930s cooling was much larger in the United States than in the global mean. The U.S. mean temperature has now reached a level comparable to that of the 1930s| while the global temperature is now far above the levels earlier in the century. The successive periods of global warming (1900-1940)| cooling (1940-1965)| and warming (1965-2000) in the 20th century show distinctive patterns of temperature change suggestive of roles for both climate forcings and dynamical variability. The U.S. was warm in 2000 but cooler than the warmest years in the 1930s and 1990s. Global temperature was moderately high in 2000 despite a lingering La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. 5616,2001,3,4,A decision-analytic framework for impact assessment - Part I: LCA and decision analysis,Life-cycle assessments (LCAs) are conducted to satisfy the aspiration of decision makers to consider the environment in their decision making. This paper reviews decision analysis and discusses how it can be used to structure the assessment and to integrate characterization and valuation. The decision analytic concepts of objectives (goals) and attributes (indicators of the degree to which an objective is achieved) are used to describe steps of the assessment of the entire impact chain. Decision analysis distinguishes among different types of objectives and attributes; it describes how these relate to each other. Impact indicators such as the Human Toxicity Potential are constructed attributes. A means-ends objectives network can show how the different constructed attributes relate to the objective of protecting the environment. As LCA takes disparate environmental impacts into account| it needs to assess their relative importance. Trade-off methods in decision analysis are grouped into utility theory and multicriteria decision aids; they have different advantages and disadvantages| but are all more sophisticated than simple weighting. The performance of the different trade-off methods has not yet been tested in an LCA context. In the second part of the paper| we present criteria for the development of characterization methods. 5579,2001,4,4,A measurement of the quiet network contribution to solar irradiance variation,A large increase in quiet network area since the 17(th) century Maunder Minimum has been suggested as a mechanism for increasing solar irradiance sufficiently to drive global warming. We show that this mechanism requires essentially complete disappearance of network proceeding back in time to the beginning of the 20(th) century. This disappearance is ruled out by the many Ca K spectroheliograms taken since the discovery of the network in the early 1890's. Furthermore| network area measurements we have carried out on Ca K spectroheliograms digitized from the Mt Wilson and NSO/Sacramento Peak archives| for the nine solar activity minima between 1914 and 1996| show no evidence of network area variations large enough to produce a significant long-term component of total irradiance variation. A network brightness variation of sufficient magnitude is also unlikely| given the linear dependence of solar microwave nux on area of bright structures. More generally| recent analyses of cycle 21| 22 pyrheliometry| and of broadband stellar photometry| provide little support for any long-term irradiance component These results do not rule out a secular irradiance increase. But they suggest that high climate sensitivity to the relatively small changes in solar total and UV irradiance that have been observed| provides a more likely explanation of the global temperature-solar activity correlation. 5514,2001,3,3,A mechanistic model of whole-tract digestion and methanogenesis in the lactating dairy cow: Model development| evaluation| and application,Dietary intervention to reduce methane emissions from lactating dairy cattle is both environmentally and nutritionally desirable due to the importance of methane as a causative agent in global warming and as a significant loss of feed energy. Reliable prediction systems for methane production over a range of dietary inputs could be used to develop novel dietary regimes for the limitation of feed energy loss to methane. This investigation builds on previous attempts at modeling methanogenesis and involves the development of a dynamic mechanistic model of whole-rumen function. The model incorporates modifications to certain ruminal fermentation parameters and the addition of a postruminal digestive element. Regression analysis showed good agreement between observed and predicted results for experimental data taken from the literature (r(2) = 0.76| root mean square prediction error = 15.4%). Evaluation of model predictions for experimental observations from five calorimetry studies (67 observations) with lactating dairy cows at the Centre for Dairy Research| in Reading| U.K|| shows an underprediction (2.1 MJ/d) of methane production (r(2) = 0.46| root mean square prediction error = 12.4%). Application of the model to develop diets for minimizing methanogenesis indicated a need to limit the ratio of lipogenic to glucogenic VFA in the rumen and hindgut. This may be achieved by replacing soluble sugars in the concentrate with starch or substituting corn silage for grass silage. On a herd basis| the model predicted that increasing dietary energy intake per cow can minimize the annual loss of feed energy through methane production. The mechanistic model is a valuable tool for predicting methane emissions from dairy cows. 5478,2001,2,4,A modeling-GIS approach for assessing irrigation effects on soil salinisation under global warming conditions,Soil salinisation is very often due to excessive irrigation. However| irrigation is absolutely essential for obtaining reliable crop yields| particularly under predicted global warming conditions. A simple methodology for assessing the salinisation risk for any water management situation and under predicted global warming conditions is presented. The methodology is illustrated by the assessment of irrigation effects on soil salinity at San Antonio del Sur Valley| in the southeast of Cuba. Irrigation from a new dam will support agriculture in the Valley| but at the same rime soil salinity is expected to increase. Soil electrical conductivity at several depths and topographical altitudes were used to create raster layers in a Geographic Information System (GIS)| thus| determining the border of the saline-affected zones by a GIS analysis. Water-table depth at the border of the saline zones was assumed to be 2 m. The physically based SWAP model was used to predict future water-table depths after irrigation begins and under global warming conditions. Future temperature and precipitation daily values were calculated from a linear increase/decrease of the daily values corresponding to a typical year| according to a global-change forecast for the zone. Soil hydraulic properties were estimated from pedotransfer function and published soil data. Simulated results predict a fast water-table raise of 1 m| due to the increase of irrigation water. B orders of the new saline zones under these conditions (i.e. the places where the water-table is at a 2 m depth) were calculated using a digital terrain model| assuming that the water-table rose 1 m over the whole valley. According to the simulation results| the original saline zones of the valley will be enlarged from 31.4 to 96.8 ha 15 years after the scheduled start of irrigation. The methodology could be used by farmers and decision-makers to select the most suitable water management solution considering both economical and environmental criteria. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. Ah rights reserved. 5563,2001,3,3,A new CO2 disposal process via artificial weathering of calcium silicate accelerated by acetic acid,A new disposal process for anthropogenic CO: via an artificially accelerated weathering reaction is proposed to counteract global warming. The process is essentially composed of the following two steps: (1) CaSiO3 + 2CH(3)COOH --> Ca2+ + 2CH(3)COO(-) + H2O + SiO2. (2) Ca2+ + 2CH(3)COO(-) + CO2 + H2O --> CaCO(3)down arrow+ 2CH(3)COOH. Step (1) is the extraction of calcium ions by acetic acid from calcium silicate| for example| wollastonite rocks. Step (2) is the deposition of calcium carbonate from the solution of calcium ions by CO2 injection. The Gibbs free energy change of each step is negative; the reactions would proceed spontaneously without consuming large amounts of energy. The CO2 would be captured from the concentrated emission sources such as thermal power plant| and be disposed of and sequestrated in the form of calcium carbonate. The feasibility of the proposed process was evaluated through a process design based on the experimental results of the reaction kinetics. The operational energy consumption was 20.4 MW for the disposal of CO2 produced by a 100-MW thermal power plant. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5404,2001,4,2,A nonlinear impulse response model of the coupled carbon cycle-climate system (NICCS),Impulse-response-function (IRF) models are designed for applications requiring a large number of climate change simulations| such as multi-scenario climate impact studies or cost-benefit integrated-assessment studies. The models apply linear response theory to reproduce the characteristics of the climate response to external forcing computed with sophisticated state-of-the-art climate models like general circulation models of the physical ocean-atmosphere system and three-dimensional oceanic-plus-terrestrial carbon cycle models. Although highly computer efficient| IRF models are nonetheless capable of reproducing the full set of climate-change information generated by the complex models against which they are calibrated. While limited in principle to the linear response regime (less than about 3 degreesC global-mean temperature change)| the applicability of the IRF model presented has been extended into the nonlinear domain through explicit treatment of the climate system's dominant nonlinearities: CO2 chemistry in ocean water| CO2 fertilization of land biota| and sublinear radiative forcing. The resultant nonlinear impulse-response model of the coupled carbon cycle-climate system (NICCS) computes the temporal evolution of spatial patterns of climate change for four climate variables of particular relevance for climate impact studies: near-surface temperature| cloud cover| precipitation| and sea level. The space-time response characteristics of the model are derived from an EOF analysis of a transient 850-year greenhouse warming simulation with the Hamburg atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM3-LSG and a similar response experiment with the Hamburg carbon cycle model HAMOCC. The model is applied to two long-term CO2 emission scenarios| demonstrating that the use of all currently estimated fossil fuel resources would carry the Earth's climate far beyond the range of climate change for which reliable quantitative predictions are possible today| and that even a freezing of emissions to present-day levels would cause a major global warming in the long term. 5399,2001,2,4,A potential interaction between sea-level rise and global warming: implications for coastal stability on the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain,A portion of the southeastern United States is currently experiencing the most severe drought on record. Rainfall deficits accumulated since 1998 have led to a twofold increase in mean annual salinity in the study area| a wetland landbridge located in the Lake Pontchartrain Estuary in southeastern Louisiana. Global circulation models have predicted a rise in both the frequency and amplitude of extreme weather if global warming continues. This indicates a-threat to the stability of deltaic plains| particularly those with altered hydrologies. Throughout the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain| river control structures have eliminated freshwater inputs. Generally| this should lead to increases in salinity that can become particularly acute during drought events. Such conditions have been shown to play a decisive role in plant community ecology| an important force in deltaic plain stability| Beyond certain thresholds| these conditions can have detrimental effects upon primary production. The accumulation of primary production deficits may lead to increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise. Though the drought is not proven to be the result of global warming| this event shows that coastal ecology is sensitive to drought conditions and any increase will be detrimental to floodplain stability. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5516,2001,3,4,A search for a freonless gas mixture for glass RPC,We have operated successfully glass resistive plate counters in the streamer mode at the BELLE experiment by using a nonflammable gas mixture of argon 30 %| butane-silver 8 %| and freon| HFC-134a 62 %. This freon is non-ozone-depleting but has a high global warming potential (1300 times higher than that of CO2). Thus freon gases might be unusable in the near future. We tested the performance of a glass resistive plate counter operated in the streamer mode with an alternative gas mixtures of argon| butane| CO2| and/or O-2 gases and found an efficiency of about 90 %. 2953,2001,2,4,A time-series study of particulate matter export in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre based on Th-234 : U-238 disequilibrium,Depth profiles of total Th-234 (dissolved+particulate) were collected at Station ALOHA (22 degrees 45N| 158 degrees 00W) in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre during 9 cruises from April 1999 to March 2000. Samples were collected and processed by a new 2 L technique that enables more detailed depth resolution then previous Th-234 studies. Significant zones of particle export (Th-234 deficiency) and particle remineralization (Th-234 excess) were measured both temporally and with depth. Th-234 derived particulate carbon (PC) and nitrogen (PN) fluxes were determined with steady-state and non-steady-state models and PC/Th-234 and PN/Th-234 ratios measured with both in situ pumps and free-drifting particle interceptor traps deployed at 150 m. Th-234 based export estimates of 4.0 +/- 2.3 mmol C m(-2) d(-1) and 0.53 +/- 0.19 mmol N m(-2) d(-1)| were approximately 60% higher than those measured in PIT style sediment traps from the same time period| 2.4 +/- 0.2 mmol C m(-2) d(-1) and 0.32 +/- 0.08 mmol N m(-2) d(-1). Most of this difference is attributable to two large export events that occurred during October and December 1999| when traps undercollected for Th-234 by a factor of 2 to 4. Th-234 export (ThE) ratios based on Th-234 derived PC flux/C-14 based primary production ranged from 4% to 22% (average = 8.8%). Our results confirm the recent estimates of C export by Emerson et al. (Nature 389 (1997) 951) and Sonnerup et al. (Deep-Sea Research I 46 (1999) 777) and indicate that C export from the oligotrophic ocean must be considered when discussing C sequestration in global climate change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5443,2001,3,3,A transition toward a sustainable energy future: feasibility assessment and development strategies of wind power in Taiwan,While the international community has yet to achieve a consensus on the operational details of implementing the Kyoto Protocol| the rapidly increasing consumption of fossil fuels and the CO| emissions produced in the industrializing developing countries further obscure the prospects for combating global warming. This study analyzes the problems of energy utilization in Taiwan as an illustrative example| and explores the strategies for increasing the market penetration of wind power in the traditional energy structure dominated by fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Decentrally produced wind power would contribute to establishing an autonomous and disaster-resilient power supply system. Replacing partial coal-based power generation with the full exploitation of wind energy would result in annual reductions of 9.8 million tons of CO| in Taiwan. The key barrier to utilizing wind energy lies mainly in the lack of political impetus and a framework for promoting renewable energy in Taiwan. Priority tasks to allow wind power to penetrate the energy market include establishing legislative prioritization for renewable energy| setting premium prices for power from wind turbines| providing direct support of investment costs| raising awareness| etc. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All All rights reserved. 3035,2001,2,4,Abiotic vs. biotic influences on habitat selection of coexisting species: Climate change impacts?,Species are commonly segregated along gradients of microclimate and vegetation. I explore the question of whether segregation is the result of microhabitat partitioning (biotic effects) or choice of differing microclimates (abiotic effects). I explored this question for four ground-nesting bird species that an segregated along a microclimate and vegetation gradient in Arizona. Birds shifted position of their nests on the microhabitat and microclimate gradient in response to changing precipitation over nine years. Similarly| annual bird abundance varied with precipitation across 12 yr. Those shifts in abundance and nesting microhabitat with changing precipitation demonstrate the importance of abiotic influences on bird distributions and habitat choice. However| nest-site shifts and microhabitat use also appear to be influenced by interactions among coexisting species. Moreover| shifts in habitat use by all species caused nest predation (i.e.| biotic) costs that increased with increasing distance along the microclimate gradient. These results indicate that abiotic and biotic costs can strongly interact to influence microhabitat choice and abundances of coexisting species. Global climate change impacts have been considered largely in terms of simple distributional shifts| but these results indicate that shifts can also increase biotic costs when species move into habitat types for which they are poorly adapted or that create new biotic interactions. 5550,2001,5,4,Absence of deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea during the last interglacial period,The two main constituent water masses of the deep North Atlantic Ocean-North Atlantic Deep Water at the bottom and Labrador Sea Water at an intermediate level-are currently formed in the Nordic seas and the Labrador Sea| respectively(1). The rate of formation of these two water masses tightly governs the strength of the global ocean circulation and the associated heat transport across the North Atlantic Ocean(2). Numerical simulations have suggested a possible shut-down of Labrador Sea Water formation as a consequence of global warming(3). Here we use micropalaeontological data and stable isotope measurements in both planktonic and benthic foraminifera from deep Labrador Sea cores to investigate the density structure of the water column during the last interglacial period| which was thought to be about 2 degreesC warmer than present(4). Our results indicate that today's stratification between Labrador Sea Water and North Atlantic Deep Water never developed during the last interglacial period. Instead| a buoyant surface layer was present above a single water mass originating from the Nordic seas. Thus the present situation| with an active site of intermediate-water formation in the Labrador Sea| which settled some 7|000 years ago| has no analogue throughout the last climate cycle. 5669,2001,3,3,Absorption processes - Classic chemical engineering in combating global warming,Development is described of the theory of absorption as a classic chemical engineering process. Two particular elements of this theory are discussed| namely| multicomponent mass transport and cellular convection. The role of carbon dioxide in generating the greenhouse effect is outlined| along with methods for the abatement of CO2. The importance of modem absorption processes is shown using| as an example| the capture and sequestration of CO2 that accompanies the North Sea natural gas. 5508,2001,2,4,Accumulation and temperature changes in Princess Elizabeth Land| Antarctica in the past 250 years,A 50 m firn core drilled in Princess Elizabeth Land| Antarctica| during the 1996/1997 Chinese First Antarctic Inland Expedition| has been measured for delta O-18 and major ions. Based on these data| the features of the climate change in the investigated region in the past 250 years have first been studied. In the past 250 years| the change trend of climate in this legion can be divided into two periods by the year 1860. Both the temperature and accumulation rate display increasing trend before 1860| while after 1860| the decreasing trend of the temperature is obvious but the change of the accumulation rate is not clear. Although both the temperature and the accumulation rate are increasing in the past 50 years| they are not the highest values in the past 250 years. Sc it is clear that the climate change in this region during this period does not reflect recent global warming.
5526,2001,3,2,Advanced materials for global carbon dioxide recycling,CO2 emission increase inducing global Warming occurs mostly with the growth of the economic activity. Global CO recycling can prevent global warming and supply abundant renewable energy. Global CO2 recycling consists of three district. The electricity is generated by solar cells on deserts. At coasts close to the deserts| the electricity is used for hydrogen production by seawater electrolysis and hydrogen is used for methane production by the reaction with CO2. Methane (CH4) is liquefied and transported to energy consuming districts where after CH4 is used as a fuel CO2 is recovered| liquefied anti transported to the coasts close to the deserts| Ii;ey materials necessary for the global CO2 recycling are the anode and cathode for seawater electrolysis and the catalyst for CO2 conversion All uf them have been tailored by us. amorphous and nanocrystalline nickel alloys are active cathodes for hydrogen production in seawater electrolysis. Anodically deposited nanocrystalline Mn-Mo and Mn-W oxides are the unique substance which can evolve oxygen with 100% efficiency without evolving chlorine in seawater electrolysis. Amorphous Ni-Zr alloys ale excellent precursors of catalysts for conversion of CO2 into CH4 by the reaction with hydrogen at 1 atm. A prototype CO2 recycling plant to supply clean energy preventing global warming has been built on the roof of our Institute (IMR) in 1996 using these key materials and has been operating successfully| (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All lights reserved. 3034,2001,5,4,Alkenone temperature and carbon isotope records: Temporal resolution| offsets| and regionality,Over the last decade the number of paleoceanographic studies presenting and discussing alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) records and carbon isotope ratios of alkenones (delta C-13(alkenones)) has increased rapidly. This short review paper summarizes the state of knowledge about SST variability determined by alkenone paleothermometry in sediment trap studies and investigations of marine sediments for timescales of single to millions of years. In particular from the evaluation of Quaternary records| characteristic temperature pattern have emerged that mismatch with SST curves estimated by other methods| e.g.| foraminiferal stable oxygen isotopes and transfer functions. In future studies the spatial distribution of such variance patterns typically observed in alkenone SST curves should be checked in order to better understand their meaning for ocean circulation changes and a possible relationship to global climate change. On the other hand| certain physical and biological processes have the potential to put the reliability of alkenone SST curves into question. Accordingly| examples for possible effects of bioturbational mixing| lateral transport of remote alkenones| diagnetic alteration and degradation of alkenone composition| biogeographic and temporal diversity changes in alkenone-producing algae| as well as the influence of changes in salinity and nutrient conditions on the alkenone paleotemperature signal| are briefly mentioned| highlighting the need for more detailed future studies on these issues. Finally| a short summary on the status of the use of the delta C-13(alkenones) signal as a proxy for past variations in the carbon dioxide pressure (PCO2) in ocean surface waters and related problems is given. 3052,2001,3,3,Amazonian deforestation: Regional and global issues,How does the deforestation of Amazonia affect global and regional climates? What arc the roles of these changes on Amazonian ecosystems? We have concluded that the relation between Regional Climate Changes (RCC) and Global Climate Change (GCC) is directly associated with anthropogenic activities and therefore sensitive to social| economical and political interventions. The RCCs are caused by actions within the realm of the Brazilian sociopolitical scenario| and prone to changes through the implementation of public policies regulating the sustained use of the renewable resources. The GCCs belong to an international arena| and are caused by the high emission rates of greenhouse gases by the developed countries. The effects of the RCCs could be abated if the developed countries would endeavor to reduce the present emission levels as documented in IPCC meetings and collaborate in the implementation of a regulation to curb the carbon emissions| in accordance to the Kyoto Protocol. 5398,2001,3,4,Ammonia abatement and its impact on emissions of nitrous oxide and methane - Part 2: application for Europe,Agricultural emissions of NH3| N2O| and CH4 come| to a large extent| from common sources. It has been demonstrated that controlling NH3 emissions through application of technical measures might have an impact on emissions of N2O and CH4. This paper presents estimates of NH3| N2O and CH4 emissions from European agriculture for 1990 and four scenarios for the year 2010. The first scenario assumes no specific NH3 abatement| but emissions of all three gases decline between 1990 and 2010 as a result of projected reductions in animal numbers and fertiliser consumption in Europe. The other three scenarios assume different levels of NH3 abatement in Europe| including the maximum feasible reduction case. They are compared with respect to their effect on emissions of N2O and CH4. The results indicate that in Europe| abating agricultural emissions of NH3 may cause releases of N2O from this sector up to 15% higher than in the case of no NH3 control. There may be substantial differences in the observed effects between various countries depending on the degree and type of NH3 control options applied. The effect of NH3 abatement on CH4 emissions was found to be negligible. c| 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5397,2001,3,4,Ammonia abatement and its impact on emissions of nitrous oxide and methane in Europeb - Part 1: method,Agriculture is an important source of NH3| which contributes to acidification and eutrophication| as well as emissions of the greenhouse gases CH4 and N2O. Because of their common sources| emission reduction measures for one of these gases may affect emissions of others. These interrelations are often ignored in policy making. This study presents an analysis of the effects of measures to reduce NH3 emissions on emissions of N2O and CH4 from agriculture in Europe. The analysis combines information from the NH3 module of the Regional Air pollution INformation and Simulation (RAINS) model for Europe with the IPCC method for national greenhouse gas inventories. The IPCC method for estimating agricultural emissions of N2O and CH4 is adjusted in order to use it in combination with the RAINS database for the European agricultural sector. As an example| vie applied the adjusted method to the agricultural sector in the Netherlands and found that application of several NH3 abatement options may result in a substantial increase in N2O emissions while the effect on CH4 emissions is relatively small. In Part 2 of this paper we focus on the resulting emissions for all European countries for 1990 and 2010. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5595,2001,3,4,Amorphous silicon and tungsten etching employing environmentally benign plasma process,A novel dry etching process for amorphous silicon (a-Si) and tungsten (W) for chemical vapor deposition (CVD) chamber cleaning has been performed by electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) O-2 plasma employing a solid-material evaporation system where fluorocarbon species are produced from fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP) by CO2 laser evaporation for preventing global warming. This process enables us to realize etching of materials without using any perfluorocompound (PFC) feed gases which have a high global warming potential (GWP). Etching characteristics together with diagnostics of the F atom density| CFx (x = 1-3) radical densities| electron density and temperature have been investigated as functions of pressure. As a result| it was found that etching rates of a-Si and W films were determined based on the F atom density| ion flux and ion bombardment energy. Furthermore| etching rates of a-Si and W films increased by heating the fluorocarbon species before introducing them into the plasma reactor. Thus| high rates of etching of a-Si and W films were successfully achieved by this novel etching process compared with conventional etching using ECR plasma with CF4/O-2 feed gases. 5554,2001,3,3,An alternative approach to establishing trade-offs among greenhouse gases,The Kyoto Protocol permits countries to meet part of their emission reduction obligations by cutting back on gases other than CO2 (ref. 1). This approach requires a definition of trade-offs among the radiatively active gases. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has suggested global warming potentials for this purpose(2)| which use the accumulated radiative forcing of each gas by a set time horizon to establish emission equivalence. But it has been suggested that this approach has serious shortcomings: damages or abatement costs are not considered(3-10) and the choice of time horizon for calculating cumulative radiative force is critical| but arbitrary(5). Here we describe an alternative framework for determining emission equivalence between radiatively active gases that addresses these weaknesses. We focus on limiting temperature change and rate of temperature change| but our framework is also applicable to other objectives. For a proposed ceiling| we calculate how much one should be willing to pay for emitting an additional unit of each gas. The relative prices then determine the trade-off between gases at each point in time| taking into account economical as well as physical considerations. Our analysis shows that the relative prices are sensitive to the lifetime of the gases| the choice of target and the proximity of the target| making short-lived gases more expensive to emit as we approach the prescribed ceiling. 3033,2001,2,4,An empirical mechanistic framework for heat-related illness,A physiologically based| mechanistic framework was developed to understand key risk factors associated with adverse health effects from heat waves. The framework consists of a number of integrated transdisciplinary modules. Environmental conditions and behavioral responses link to a physiological model| which predicts core temperature. Core temperature over time is then converted into a time-at-temperature metric. The output of the framework is a heat-related health effects index (HEI)| reflecting the potential relative severity of the heat stress on health. The framework is flexible| allowing the individual models to be adapted to conditions at specific locations and to be updated as new information becomes available. Scenario analyses are easily accommodated| enabling the framework to evaluate issues such as intervention strategies and the possible effects of global climate change on heat-related illnesses. The framework and an initial set of component models were applied to conditions during the 1995 Chicago event and the results compared with published studies. For individuals| there was reasonably good agreement between HEI ratios and actual mortality risk ratios when comparing indoor versus outdoor environments. When aggregating across populations| predicted HEI ratios were significantly smaller than actual mortality ratios when comparing healthy versus compromised populations| supporting the notion that mortality may not be the best indicator of heat stress effects. Future work should include refinement of the initial models and application to other cities and heat events. 2991,2001,4,4,An empirical method for the determination of the complex refractive index of size-fractionated atmospheric aerosols for radiative transfer calculations,To adequately assess the effects of atmospheric aerosols on climate| their optical constants (scattering and absorption coefficients) must be known. The absorption and scattering coefficients of the aerosols are derived from the real and imaginary parts of the complex refractive index and are dependent on their size and chemical composition. Because aerosol properties vary significantly with location| it is difficult to assign values for the absorption and scattering of solar radiation by aerosols in models of global climate change| This study reports a new method of collecting size-fractionated atmospheric aerosol samples for the purpose of directly measuring their transmission and reflectance spectra followed by the determination of the complex refractive index across the entire atmospherically relevant spectral range. The samples were collected with a modified Sierra high-volume cascade impactor with the usual filter collection surfaces replaced with Teflon sheets machined to hold quartz (ultraviolet [UV]/visible transparent) and/or silver chloride (infrared transparent) sample collection plates. Reflectance and transmission spectra can be obtained on the aerosol samples directly as a function of wavelength| from 280 mn to 2.5 mum| with an integrating sphere coupled to an UV/visible or a Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrophotometer. The effective real and imaginary components of the refractive index of the bulk sample material can then be approximated| as a function of wavelength| from the sample spectra| preliminary results are presented for carbon soot samples generated in the laboratory and for standard diesel soot samples in the UV/visible spectral range. These are compared to results obtained for size-fractionated atmospheric aerosol samples collected near Pasco| WA| West Mesa| AZ| and Argonne| IL. 3027,2001,4,4,An empirical model of carbon fluxes in Russian tundra,This study presents an empirical model based on la GIS approach| which was constructed to estimate the large-scale carbon fluxes over the entire Russian tundra zone. The model has four main blocks: (i) the computer map of tundra landscapes; (ii) data base of long-term weather records; (iii) the submodel of phytomass seasonal dynamics; and (iv) the submodel of carbon fluxes. The model uses exclusively original in situ diurnal CO2 flux chamber measurements (423 sample plots) conducted during six field seasons (1993-98). The research sites represent the main tundra biome landscapes (arctic| typical| south shrub and mountain tundras) in the latitudinal diapason of 65-74 degreesN and longitudinal profile of 63 degreesE-172 degreesW. The greatest possible diversity of major ecosystem types within the different landscapes was investigated. The majority of the phytomass data used was obtained from the same sample plots. The submodel of carbon fluxes has two dependent [GPP| Gross Respiration (GR)I and several input variables lair temperature| PAR| aboveground phytomass components). The model demonstrates a good correspondence with other independent regional and biome estimates and carbon flux seasonal patterns. The annual GPP of Russian tundra zone for the area of 235x10(6) ha was estimated as -485.8+/-34.6x10(6) tC| GR as +474.2 +/- 35.0x10(6) tC| and NF as -11.6 +/- 40.8x10(6) tC| which possibly corresponds to an equilibrium state of carbon balance during the climatic period studied (the first half of the 20th century). The results advocate that simple regression-based models are useful for extrapolating carbon fluxes from small to large spatial scales. 5611,2001,2,4,Annual methane emission from Finnish mires estimated from eddy covariance campaign measurements,Measurements of landscape-scale methane emission were made over an aapa mire near Kaamanen in Finnish Lapland (69 degrees 8' N| 27 degrees 16' E| 155 m ASL. Emissions were measured during the spring thaw| in summer and in autumn. No effect of water table position on CH4 emission was found as the water table remained at or above the surface of the peat. Methane emission fluxes increased with surface temperature from which an activation energy of -99 kJ mol(-1) was obtained. Annual emission from the site| modelled from temperature regression and short-term flux measurements made in three separate years| was calculated to be 5.5 +/- 0.4 g CH4 m(-2) y(-1) of which 0.6 +/-0.1 g CH4 m(-2) y(-1) (11%) was released during the spring thaw which lasted 20 to 30 days. The effect of global warming on the CH4 budget of the site was estimated using the central scenario of the SILMU (Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change) model which predicts annual mean temperature increases of 1.2| 2.4 and 4.4 degreesC in 2020| 2050 and 2100| respectively. Maximum enhancements in CH4 emission due to warming were calculated to be 18| 40 and 84% for 2020| 2050 and 2100| respectively. Actual increases may be smaller because prediction of changes in water table are highly uncertain. 5658,2001,2,4,Anomalies and trends of sea-ice extent and atmospheric circulation in the Nordic Seas during the period 1864-1998,The extent of ice in the Nordic Seas measured in April has decreased by similar to 33% over the past 135 yr. Retrospective comparison indicates that the recent decrease in the ice extent is within the range of variability observed since the eighteenth century. Temporal| monotonically reduced extreme events occur with intervals of 12-14 yr| suggesting that series longer than similar to 30 yr should be considered to obtain statistical significance regarding temporal changes. Otherwise| decadal temperature variation is also found in the northbound warmer ocean currents. The temperature in the upper layers of these currents seems moreover to have increased by the order of 1 degreesC since the cooling during the Little Ice Age. This temperature increase accounts for most of the ice extent reduction since similar to 1860. A strong negative correlation is found between the larger North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) winter index and the Nordic Seas April ice extent| and a corresponding positive correlation is observed for the Newfoundland-Labrador Sea. It is not until the warming of the Arctic| 1905-30| that the NAO winter index shows repeated positive values over a number of sequential years| corresponding to repeated northward fluxes of warmer air over the Nordic Seas during the winter. An analog repetition of southward fluxes of colder air during wintertime occurs during the cooling period in the 1960s. Concurrently| the temperature in the ocean surface layers was lower than normal during the warming event and higher than normal during the cooling event. Northward atmospheric winter fluxes are observed after the enhanced global warming after similar to 1970| and| for the first time over the period considered| a positive correlation is observed between atmospheric and oceanic reducing effects on the ice extent. The enhanced global warming over the past two decades seems also to be manifest in an intensified winter circulation at higher latitudes| rather than a contemporary change in the Arctic Ocean surface temperature. 2957,2001,2,2,Anthropogenic climate change shown by local wave conditions in the North Sea,In the central North Sea we have observed an increase in the frequency of eastwardly propagating waves in the last 4 decades. To assess the significance of this change| wave statistics for the 20th century were reconstructed with a statistical model With a linear multivariate technique (redundancy analysis)| monthly mean air pressure fields over the North Atlantic and Western Europe were downscaled on the intramonthly frequency of directional wave propagation. When compared against this reference| the recent change appears statistically significant at the 5% level. In order to investigate the reason for this local climatic change| the reconstruction was compared with the downscaled results of control and transient GCM scenarios (ECHAM4-OPYC3) and with the results obtained in a high-resolution time-slice experiment with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Both estimates are qualitatively consistent with the changes observed in the last 4 decades| We suggest that the recent increase in eastward propagation is a local manifestation of anthropogenic global climate change. 5440,2001,4,4,Application of AMS radiocarbon in earth system science studies,Radiocarbon| a cosmic ray-produced isotope| is one of the most important tracers in Earth system sciences. The strong involvement of carbon in the biosphere and its half life of 5720 years are reflected in appropriate applications in archeology| as well as in the Earth system sciences. Radiocarbon dating had an important turning point in 1977 with the discovery that mass spectrometry with tandem acceleration could be used to measure C-14. This new technique| known as AMS or accelerator mass spectrometry reduced the required sample size to the order of mg| three orders of magnitude smaller than for conventional techniques| thus opening the range of applicability of C-14 studies to a much wider range of samples. However| the application has been complicated by two major activities of human beings on a global scale: the extensive usage of fossil fuel since the industrial revolution and nuclear testing in the atmosphere| which have influenced the natural balance of radiocarbon in the atmosphere. However| the separation of bomb-produced carbon from natural background carbon has produced a very fruitful understanding of the global carbon cycle and the conveyor belt system in the ocean| which will be essential for understanding global environmental problems| such as global warming| in the coming century. Carbon cycle studies in Korea have been made since the early 1990s. The studies include monitoring of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere| stable isotope studies| and carbon cycle studies in the sea around Korea. The opening of the AMS facility at Seoul National University (SNU) will enhance carbon studies in Earth system sciences greatly in the future. 5448,2001,3,4,Application of high-pressure swing adsorption process for improvement of CO2 recovery system from flue gas,Although the super cold separator applied to the system for CO2 recovery from flue gas can produce pure CO2 liquid| the CO2 recovery efficiency is low. Therefore| the addition of a PSA plant was considered for the secondary CO2 recovery from the noncondensing gas to improve the efficiency. The PSA plant was operated for adsorption at the same pressure as that of the super cold separator and for desorption at the atmospheric pressure. From both the simulation and the experimental data| it was confirmed that CO2 could be concentrated from 50% in the noncondensing gas to 70% in the recovery gas by the PSA plant and the CO2 recovery efficiency of the plant was about 90%. 5544,2001,3,3,Application of the Life Cycle Assessment methodology to agricultural production: an example of sugar beet production with different forms of nitrogen fertilisers,The suitability of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology to analyse the environmental impact of agricultural production is investigated. The first part of an LCA is an inventory of all the resources used and emissions released due to the system under investigation. In the following step| i.e. the Life Cycle Impact Assessment the inventory data were analysed and aggregated in order to finally get one index representing the total environmental burden. For the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) the Eco-indicator 95 method has been chosen| because this is a well-documented and regularly applied impact assessment method. The resulting index is called Eco-indicator value. The higher the Eco-indicator value the stronger is the total environmental impact of an analysed system. A sugar beet field experiment conducted in northeastern Germany was chosen as an example for the analysis. In this experiment three different nitrogen fertilisers (calcium ammonium nitrate = CAN| urea ammonium nitrate solution = UAN| urea) were used at optimum N rates. The obtained Eco-indicator values were clearly different for the N fertilisers used in the sugar beet trial. The highest value was observed for the system where urea was used as N source. The lowest Eco-indicator value has been calculated for the CAN system. The differences are mainly due to different ammonia volatilisation after application of the N fertilisers. For all the systems the environmental effects of acidification and eutrophication contributed most to the total Eco-indicator value. The results show that the LCA methodology is basically suitable to assess the environmental impact associated with agricultural production. A comparative analysis of the system's contribution to global warming| acidification| eutrophication and summer smog is possible. However| some important environmental issues are missing in the Eco-indicator 95 method (e.g. the use of resources and land). (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5394,2001,3,4,Applying a gas mixture containing c-C4F8 as an insulation medium,This paper studies the possibility of applying a gas mixture containing c-C4F8 in the gas insulation of power equipment. Environmental aspects such as global warming potential| ozone depletion potential| recycling loss and toxicity are discussed. Insulation characteristics of gas mixtures such as c-C4F8/N-2| c-C4F8/air| and c-C4F8/CO2 are examined experimentally under a quasi-homogeneous or an inhomogeneous electric field condition. Most of the characteristics are compared with those of SF6/N-2| which is now widely studied as the most plausible alternative to pure SF6 for gas insulation. The experimental results| together with the discussion| suggest that gas mixtures containing c-C4F8 are possible substitutes for SF6 and SF6/N2. 5618,2001,2,4,Archeological evidence of Pacific salmon distribution in northern Japan and implications for future global warming,Archeological evidence of Pacific salmon in Hokkaido is reviewed and compared with results from western North America. Salmon remains have been found at 24 sites in Hokkaido from the Early Jomon Period to the Ainu Period (6000-100 years ago). Fish remains at three archeological sites in the Kushiro River basin indicated that Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) were distributed and utilized from 6000 years ago. The present Kushiro Wetland was formerly covered with seawater and called the Paleo Kushiro Bay 5000-6000 years ago. Based on the molluscan fossil fauna| seawater temperature at Paleo Kushiro Bay was about 5 degreesC warmer than at present. Warmer conditions for salmon in Kushiro 5000-6000 years ago corresponded with the poor conditions for salmon in the Columbia River basin 6000-7000 years ago. If the future global warming is similar to the conditions that prevailed 5000-6000 years ago| the southern limit of salmon distribution will shift northwards and the salmon production will decrease. However| they will not disappear from either Hokkaido or southwestern North America. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 3020,2001,2,4,Arctic sea ice thickness remained constant during the 1990s,The ice cover of the Arctic Ocean is considered to be a sensitive indicator of global climate change. Recent research| using submarine-based observations| suggests that the Arctic ice cover was thinner in the 1990s compared to an earlier period (1958-1979)| and that it continued to decrease in thickness in the 1990s. Here I analyze subsurface ice thickness (draft) of Arctic sea ice from six submarine cruises from 1991 to 1997. This extensive data set shows that there was no trend towards a thinning ice cover during the 1990s. Data from the North Pole shows a slight increase in mean ice thickness| whereas the Beaufort Sea shows a small decrease| none of which are significant. Transects between the two areas from 76 degrees N to 90 degrees N also show near constant ice thicknesses| with a general spatial decrease from the Pole towards the Beaufort Sea. Combining the present results with those of an earlier study| I conclude that the mean ice thickness has remained on a near-constant level around the North Pole from 1986 to 1997. 3010,2001,2,3,Are Phragmites-dominated wetlands a net source or net sink of greenhouse gases?,Phragmites australis wetlands act as a sink for greenhouse gases by photosynthetic assimilation of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and sequestration of the organic matter produced in the wetland soil. The wetlands also act as a source for greenhouse gases by emission of sediment-produced methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. In P. australis wetlands| the dominant mechanism of CH4 release to the atmosphere is internal gas transport in the plants| primarily by pressurized convective gas flow. The time periods of carbon fixation and CH4 release therefore vary seasonally and diurnally. The balance between net CO2-assimilation and CH4 emission determines if a wetland can be regarded as a net sink or a net source of greenhouse gases| and hence| the function of the wetland in relation to global climate change. On an annual basis up to 15% of the net carbon fixed by the wetlands may be released to the atmosphere as CH4. Because of the different infrared absorption characteristics and atmospheric longevity of CH4 and CO2| the warming effect of CH4 in the atmosphere is about 21 times higher on a mass basis than CO2 over a 100-year timescale. Thus| the immediate carbon balance| coupled with the different physical characteristics of the two gases| would suggest that although some wetlands function as a net sink for CO. the wetlands still increase the greenhouse effect because of their release of CH4. However| the short adjustment time for CH4 in the atmosphere means that| over a longer time scale| the radiative forcing of CH4 is less relative to CO2 and the wetlands effectively become a sink for greenhouse gases. Wetlands may therefore be regarded as a source for greenhouse gases and so increase radiative forcing if evaluated on a short time scale (decades)| but as a sink for greenhouse gases and thus attenuating radiative forcing if evaluated over longer time scales (>100 years). (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3051,2001,4,4,Assimilation of satellite altimetry into a western North Pacific operational model,An ocean data assimilation system| COMPASS-K (the Comprehensive Ocean Modeling| Prediction| Analysis and Synthesis System in the Kuroshio-region)| has been developed at the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The purposes of the development are understanding ocean variability in the Kuroshio region as a local response to a global climate change with assimilated four-dimensional data sets| development of an operational system in the Japan Meteorological Agency| and for the GODAE (Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment) project. The model is an eddy permitting version of an MRI-OGCM. Space-time decorrelation scales of ocean variability are estimated with TOPEX / POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter data. Subsurface temperature and salinity fields are projected from the T / P altimeter data with a statistical correlation method and are assimilated into the model with a time-retrospective nudging scheme. Seasonal variation in the western North Pacific is investigated. Realistic space-time distribution of the physical quantities| the path of Kuroshio and its separation from Honshu are captured well. The Kuroshio volume transport is well reproduced in a reanalysis experiment of 1993. Preliminary predictability experiments are done in February and March| 1994. Predictability diagram shows the time scale of the predictability for temperature field is about 17 days in the Kuroshio south of Japan. This time scale is smaller than that in the North Atlantic. 5414,2001,2,3,Atlantic thermohaline circulation and its response to increasing CO2 in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model,We discuss aspects of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and its response to increased greenhouse gas concentration| using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) whose oceanic component is a now hybrid-isopycnal model. Two 200-year model integrations are carried out - a control run assuming fixed atmospheric composition and a perturbation run assuming gradual doubling of CO2. We employ no flux corrections at the air-sea interface| nor do we spin up the ocean prior to coupling. The surface conditions in the control run stabilize after several decades. When doubling CO2 at the rate of 1% per year| the model responds with a 2 degreesC increase in global mean surface air temperature (SAT) after 200 years and a virtually unchanged Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The latter is maintained by a salinity increase that counteracts the effect of global warming on the surface buoyancy. 5507,2001,4,4,Atmospheric absorption of near infrared and visible solar radiation by the hydrogen bonded water dimer,Based on the physico-chemical properties of water dimers| their near infrared and visible absorption of solar radiation in the earth's atmosphere is calculated. The calculation uses equilibrium constants determined by statistical mechanics| and a vibrational absorption spectrum determined by a coupled oscillator quantum mechanics model and ab initio quantum chemistry. The resulting total atmospheric absorption was calculated using a line-by-line radiative-transfer model| and depends significantly on the dimer abundance| as well as on the frequency and line width given to vibrational transitions. The best estimate achieved for the possible range of total absorption from 400 nm to 5000 run by water dimer in the tropics is 1.6-3.3 W m(-2). In a global-warming scenario| the increased temperature and water vapour partial pressure result in a nonlinear increase in the absorption of solar radiation by water clusters. Most of the energy from water dimer absorption is deposited in the lower troposphere| particularly in the tropics| tending to make it more convective. 5482,2001,3,4,Atmospheric degradation and global warming potentials of three perfluoroalkenes,The vapour phase reactions of perfluoropropene| CF3 - CF = CF2| and perfluorobuta-1|3-diene| CF2=CF-CF=CF2| with OH| NO3 and O-3 were studied at 298 +/- 4K and 740 +/- 5 Torr using long-path FT-IR detection. The reactions with ozone are very slow| k(CF3CFCF2+O3) =(6.2 +/- 1.5) x 10(-22) and k(CF2CFCFCF2+O3) = (6.5 +/- 0.2) x 10(-21) cm(3) Molecules(-1) s(-1)| and upper limits of 3 x 10(-15) cm(3) molecules(-1) s(-1) are reported for the NO3 reaction rate coefficients. The OH reaction rate coefficients were determined as k(CF3CFCF2+OH) = (2.6 +/- 0.7) x 10(-12) and k(CF2CFCFCF2+OH) = (1.1 +/- 0.3) x 10(-11) cm(3) molecules(-1) s(-1); perfluoropropene gave a nearly quantitative yield of CF3CFO and CF2O as organic products| while perfluorobuta-1|3-diene gave from 130% to 170% of CF2O. A chemistry transport model was applied to calculate the atmospheric distributions and lifetimes of the perfluoroalkenes; the global and yearly averaged lifetimes were calculated as 1.9 day for C2F4 and C4F6 and 6 days for C3F6. Quantitative infrared cross-sections of perfluoroethene| perfluoropropene| and perfluorobuta-1|3-diene have been obtained at 298 K in the region 100-2600 cm(-1). Radiative forcing calculations have been performed for these gases assuming either constant vertical profiles or the distribution derived from the chemistry transport model. The results show that the Global Warming Potentials are totally negligible for these compounds. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5512,2001,2,4,Atmospheric methyl iodide: High correlation with surface seawater temperature and its implications on the sea-to-air flux,Intensive measurements of atmospheric methyl iodide taken at high| middle| and low latitudes over a period of 3 years have provided evidence for its photochemical production in seawater and given new information that sea-to-air transport of CH3I is mainly controlled by surface seawater temperature (SST). These findings suggest a highly localized production and distribution of CH3I in the surface microlayer. As a result| the oceanic emission of CH|I is likely to be larger than previous estimates based on the classical two-layer model. Owing to the SST dependence of atmospheric CH3I concentration| its impact on tropospheric or stratospheric ozone depletion would be increased by El Nine or future global warming. 5496,2001,4,3,Background monitoring and long-range transport of atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12 at Kosan| Korea,The background concentrations of atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12 were monitored to assess their impact on stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming from September 1995 to March 1999 at Kosan| Korea| located at eastern margin of the Asian Continent. The concentrations of atmospheric CFC-11 at Kosan have decreased slightly| at a rate of -2.5 pptv yr(-1)| over the period in response to the Montreal Protocol. The CFC-12 mixing ratio at Kosan continues to increase in the atmosphere at a rate of 5.7 pptv yr(-)1 despite international regulations| because of its extreme atmosphere persistence. Recent trends of these two chlorofluorocarbons at Kosan| Korea were concordant with those of the northern hemispheric background monitored unit at Mauna Loa| Hawaii. The maximum seasonal mean mixing ratios of CFC-11 and CFC-12 at Kosan| Korea| were 270 +/-4 pptv in the spring and 538 +/-9 pptv in the winter| and the corresponding seasonal minima were 267 +/-7 and 529 +/- 12 pptv. This occurred in the summer and was due to southeasterly winds from the northwestern Pacific Ocean. By performing a three-day isentropic backward trajectory analysis| it was shown that air masses at Kosan| and with the exception of summer| mainly originated from central and northern China. In particular| the mixing ratios of these two contaminant species are closely related with their air mass trajectories. 5570,2001,4,3,Biogeophysical versus biogeochemical feedbacks of large-scale land cover change,Large-scale changes in land cover affect nearsurface energy| moisture and momentum fluxes owing to changes in surface structure (referred to as biogeophysical effects) and the atmospheric CO2 concentration owing to changes in biomass (biogeochemical effects). Here we quantify the relative magnitude of these processes as well as their synergisms by using a coupled atmosphere-biosphere-ocean model of intermediate complexity. Our sensitivity studies show that tropical deforestation tends to warm the planet because the increase in atmospheric CO2 and hence| atmospheric radiation| outweighs the biogeophysical effects. In mid and high northern latitudes| however| biogeophysical processes| mainly the snow-vegetation-albedo feedback through its synergism with the sea-ice-albedo feedback| win over biogeochemical processes| thereby eventually leading to a global cooling in the case of deforestation and to a global warming| in the case of afforestation. 5524,2001,2,4,Bird migration: a novel theory for the evolution| the control and the adaptability of bird migration,The migratory behaviour of many bird species is currently changing| evidently in connection with global warming; in general there is a shift towards sedentariness. Because experimental studies indicate that all crucial aspects of migration are under direct genetic control| it is unlikely that the observed changes result from phenotypic plasticity. Equally improbable is the assumption of more numerous mutations in the same direction. Instead| the cause may well be rapid processes of selection and microevolution| which are demonstrable in the field and experimentally reproducible. An ideal initial situation for selection processes is partial migration. Such birds' genetic predisposition for both migration and nonmigration amounts to a kind of turntable| from which migrants| residents and partial migrants with various proportions of migratory and nonmigratory individuals can be selected. Partial migration is not only the most common Life form among birds| but is a widespread type of behaviour that developed early in the evolution of plants and animals. The new bird migration theory postulates that birds either evolved partial migration very early or inherited it from avian ancestors| like other characteristics of migration such as compasses and fat deposition. In any case| birds thus possess a fundamental control mechanism which| depending on the environmental situation| permits the rapid emergence of phenotypic migrants or residents or transitional mixed populations comprising various combinations of migrant and resident individuals. This simple new theory allows us to dispense with the previous concept that migratory birds arose polyphyletically from nonmigrants by mutational "behavioural jumps"-a concept that cannot explain| for instance| the currently increased shift away from migratory behaviour. 5497,2001,2,4,Bleaching and recovery of five eastern Pacific corals in an El Nino-related temperature experiment,Coral bleaching events have increased in frequency and severity| due mainly to elevated water temperature associated with El Nino-related warming and a general global warming trend. We experimentally tested the effects of El Nino-like sea temperature conditions on five reef-building corals in the Gulf of Panama. Branching species (Pocillopora damicornis and Pocillopora elegans) and massive species (Porites lobata| Pavona clavus and Pavona gigantea) were exposed to experimentally elevated seawater temperature| similar to1-2 degreesC above ambient| Differences in zooxanthellate coral responses to bleaching and ability to recover were compared and quantified. All corals exposed to high temperature treatment exhibited significant declines in zooxanthellae densities and chlorophyll a concentrations. Pocilloporid species were the most sensitive| being the first to bleach| and suffered the highest mortality (50% after 50 d exposure). Massive coral species demonstrated varying tolerances| but were generally less affected. R gigantea exhibited the greatest resistance to bleaching| with no lethal effects observed. Maximum experimental recovery was observed in R lobata. No signs of recovery occurred in P clavus| as zooxanthellae densities and chlorophyll a concentrations continued to decline under ambient (control) conditions. Experimental coral responses from populations in an upwelling environment are contrasted with field responses observed in a nonupwelling area during the 1997-98 El Nino-Southern Oscillation event. 5623,2001,5,4,C-14 dating of peat and delta O-18-delta D in ground ice from northwest Siberia,We present new radiocarbon dates from a number of Holocene peat deposits along a north-south transect across the Yamal Peninsula. The samples were collected from frozen peat deposits with large ice wedges in: the northern tundra near Seyaha Settlement| in the Central Yamal Peninsula| the southern tundra in Shchuch'ya River valley at the Edem'yaha mouth| the southern part of the Yamal Peninsula| and the southern forest tundra near Labytnangi Town. C-14 dates of wood remains from the tundra in the Yamal Peninsula could be used to reconstruct a northern limit of forest during the Holocene Optimum. The wood layers at the bottom of the peat give evidence for immigration of trees further north beyond the present boundary. The first forest appearance in the Seyaha River valley area is dated about 9 ka BP according to the oldest peat date in the Seyaha cross section. This suggests that summer temperatures were higher than at present. Very fast accumulation of peat (around 5 m/ka: about 9-8 ka BP at Seyaha and about 7-6 ka BP at Shchuch'ya) also supports this observation. In contrast| oxygen isotope composition of Holocene syngenetic ice wedges from the area (delta(18)O= -19.1 to -20.3parts per thousand in the Seyaha cross-section and -17.3 to -20.3parts per thousand in the Shchuch'ya River) show that winter temperatures were significantly lower than presently| i.e. the climate during the Holocene Optimum was slightly more continental. The frozen peat near Labytnangi has thawed during the last 20 years| indicating global warming. 5388,2001,3,3,Carbon sequestration and land management under uncertainty,Uncertainty about the role of forestry and land-use change in mitigating global warming is addressed using a possibilistic linear programming model of forest and agricultural land management. The objective is to maximize the cumulative net discounted returns in the two sectors| while meeting specific carbon-uptake goals and maintaining stable flows of timber over the planning horizon. Because of ambiguity related to timber yield and carbon parameters| and vagueness of policy targets (economic returns| timber production and carbon-uptake)| ordinal measures of uncertainty are applied. While ordinality entails loss of precision| it makes it possible to solve complex problems. This paper compares land-use policies in the boreal forest zone of Northeastern British Columbia under uncertainty with those from a more typical scenario that applies best-guess parameter values. Including uncertainty explicitly into the possibility analysis changes optimal land-use and forest management| and leads to different levels of projected timber supply| economic performance and carbon sequestration. The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) removed from the atmosphere and the economic cost of carbon uptake are sensitive to how the decision-maker tackles uncertainty. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2986,2001,3,4,Carbon sequestration: An option for mitigating global climate change,Most people understand the term "carbon sequestration" to mean the uptake of CO2 by trees and other plants through photosynthesis and their storing it as carbon for relatively short time periods. Another form of sequestration -- injecting CO2 into partially depleted oil reservoirs -- is already underway to enhance oil production. CO2 could also be injected into unmineable coal seams| thus enhancing the recovery of the coal-bed methane.
5392,2001,3,2,Carbon stock assessment of two agroforestry systems in a tropical forest reserve in the Philippines,Carbon dioxide is the most abundant greenhouse gas (GHG) that causes global warming. Thus| land uses such as an agroforestry system have a significant role in moderating climate change since they can be sources and sinks of carbon. The aim of the study was to generate data on the carbon stocks of two agroforestry systems| specifically a Gmelina arborea-Theobroma cacao multistorey system and an alley cropping system with Gliricidia sepium hedges at the agroforestry research and demonstration area inside a forest reserve in Southern Luzon| Philippines. The multistorey system had a mean biomass of 258 Mg C ha(-1) and a carbon density of 185 Mg C ha(-1). Carbon was stored in the various pools in the following order of magnitude: soil > tree biomass (above-ground) > necromass > understorey vegetation > roots. The Gliricidia hedgerow had a biomass density of 3.8 Mg C ha(-1); total carbon density was 93 Mg C ha(-1)| of which 92 Mg C ha(-1) was in the soil. 5490,2001,3,4,Carbon stock| afforestation and acidic deposition: An analysis of inter-relation with reference to arid areas,Recent advances in desert afforestation underlines its viability and importance in combating global warming and acidification. In this paper| the inter-relation between afforestation| global warming and acid rain has been analyzed. Numerical simulations indicate that afforestation of deserts has distinct advantage as carbon sink and as an important factor for changing microclimate of the region rather than a source of energy. Acidic deposition may well be utilised as fertiliser in nutrient deficit soil of tropical arid areas. However| past trends and projections of acidic deposition in arid areas adjacent to Thar deserts indicate an early efforts are required to cap the opportunity. Delays may contribute towards more incidences of failures. 5515,2001,2,4,Causes and extent of declines among native North American invertebrate pollinators: Detection| evidence| and consequences,Ecosystem health and agricultural wealth in North America depend on a particular invertebrate fauna to deliver pollination services. Extensive losses in pollinator guilds and communities can disrupt ecosystem integrity| a circumstance that today forces most farmers to rely on honey bees for much fruit and seed production. Are North America's invertebrate pollinator faunas already widely diminished or currently threatened by human activities? How would we know| what are the spatiotemporal scales for detection| and which anthropogenic factors are responsible? Answers to these questions were considered by participants in a workshop sponsored by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in October of 1999| and these questions form the nucleus for the papers in this special issue. Several contributors critically interpret the evidence for declines of bee and fly pollinators| the pollination deficits that should ensue| and their economic costs. Spatiotemporal unruliness in pollinator numbers| particularly bees| is shown to hinder our current insights| highlighting the need for refined survey and sampling designs. At the same time| two remarkable studies clearly show the long-term persistence of members of complex bee communities. Other authors offer new perspectives on habitat fragmentation and global warming as drivers of pollinator declines. Bees and lepidopterans are contrasted in terms of their natural genetic variation and their consequent resilience in the face of population declines. Overall| many ecologists and conservation biologists have not fully appreciated the daunting challenges that accompany sampling designs| taxonomy| and the natural history of bees| flies| and other invertebrate pollinators| a circumstance that must be remedied if we are to reliably monitor invertebrate pollinator populations and respond to their declines with effective conservation measures. 5519,2001,5,4,Central European vegetation response to abrupt climate change at 8.2 ka,Oxygen isotope records show a major climatic reversal at 8.2 ka in Greenland and Europe. Annually laminated sediments from two lakes in Switzerland and Germany were sampled contiguously to assess the response of European vegetation to climate change ca| 8.2 ka with time resolution and precision comparable to those of the Greenland ice cores. The pollen assemblages show pronounced and immediate responses (0-20 yr) of terrestrial vegetation to the climatic change at 8.2 ka. A sudden collapse of Corylus avellana (hazel) was accompanied by the rapid expansion of Pinus (pine)| Betula (birch)| and Tilia (linden)| and by the invasion of Fagus silvatica (beech) and Abies alba (fir)| Vegetational changes suggest that climatic cooling reduced drought stress| allowing more drought-sensitive and taller growing species to out-compete Corylus avellana by forming denser forest canopies| Climate cooling at 8.2 ka and the immediate reorganization of terrestrial ecosystems has gone unrecognized by previous pollen studies. On the basis of our data we conclude that the early Holocene high abundance of C. avellana in Europe was climatically caused| and we question the conventional opinion that postglacial expansions of F| silvatica and A. alba were controlled by low migration rates rather than by climate. The close connection between climatic change and vegetational response at a subcontinental scale implies that forecasted global warming may trigger rapid collapses| expansions| and invasions of tree species. 5575,2001,3,3,Ceramic fuel cells to replace metal burners,Global warming is thought to result from emissions largely caused by combustion reactions. Designs of burners and specifications of their materials are therefore of primary importance in restraining the warming phenomena. This paper proposes a new type of ceramic burner which incorporates many of the innovations which are needed to improve burner performance| including catalytic combustion| premixed fuel/air| recuperation of combustion heat| recycling of reaction products| electric-ignition and electron extraction. The key problems of fuel variation and thermal shock resistance of the ceramic are addressed through the concept of 'reaction gradient' in which the rich sequence of oxidation reactions during combustion is spread through three extended catalytic regimes along the isothermal ceramic device. It is evident that ceramic burners are necessary to provide catalytic activity and to promote electron transfer. The conclusion is that ceramic will ultimately replace metal in burners requiring low emissions and high exergy output. (C) 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers. 5599,2001,4,3,CFD modelling and experimental investigation of an ejector refrigeration system using methanol as the working fluid,This paper presents results of computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis and experimental investigation of an ejector refrigeration system using methanol as the working fluid. The CFD modelling was used to investigate the effect of the relative position of the primary nozzle exit within the mixing chamber on the performance of the ejector. The results of the CFD were used to obtain the optimum geometry of the ejector| which was then used to design| construct and test a small-scale experimental ejector refrigeration system. Methanol was used as the working fluid| as it has the advantage of being an 'environmentally friendly' refrigerant that does not contribute to global warming and ozone layer depletion. In addition| use of methanol allows the ejector refrigeration system to produce cooling at temperatures below the freezing point of the water| which of course would not be possible with a water ejector refrigeration system. CFD results showed that positioning the nozzle exit at least 0.21 length of the mixing chamber throat's diameter upstream of the entrance of the mixing chamber gave better performance than pushing it into the mixing chamber. Experimental values of coefficient of performance (COP) between 0.2 and 0.4 were obtained at operating conditions achievable using low-grade heat such as solar energy and waste heat. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 5620,2001,3,4,Challenges in developing environmentally safe heat pumping systems,The advent of the global warming crisis has brought about a viewpoint| in many governments| that the halogen family of refrigerants should be replaced| in part or in toto| by the so-called natural refrigerants| For this proposal to be valid it is necessary to consider both the refrigerant's direct environmental impact and its life-long performance under field conditions. This is particularly true in the case of global warming because| for most applications| it is the heat pump's operating efficiency and its impact on the central power plant's emissions that is the dominating environmental factor. Any refrigerant must also meet a variety of other criteria that deal with durability| safety and costs. A simple comparison of basic fluid properties is conducted to indicate what system design considerations must be made if a refrigerant is to become an acceptable alternative. It is also reasoned that while computer models and laboratory prototypes are a necessary beginning| they are not sufficient to determine the true environmental impact of any system. Finally| the question is raised as to whether the refrigerant specification approach is the better path to an improved environment or if it is wiser to leave all options open for researchers and manufacturers to meet an environmental performance standard any way they choose. 5391,2001,5,4,Change of fire frequency in the eastern Canadian boreal forests during the Holocene: does vegetation composition or climate trigger the fire regime?,1 Studies on the variability of natural fire regimes are needed to understand plant responses in a changing environment. Since vegetation changes might follow or trigger changes in fire frequency| climate models suggest that changes in water balance will accompany current global warming| and the response of fire regimes to Holocene hydro-climate changes and vegetation switches may thus serve as a useful analogue for current change. 2 We present high-resolution charcoal records from laminated cores from three small kettle lakes located in mixed-boreal and coniferous-boreal forest. Comparison with some pollen diagrams from the lakes is used to evaluate the role of the local vegetation in the fire history. Fire frequency was reconstructed by measuring the separation of peaks after detrending the charcoal accumulation rate from any background. 3 Several distinct periods of fire regime were detected with fire intervals. Between c. 7000-3000 cal. year BP| fire intervals were double those in the last 2000 years. Fire frequency changed 1000 years earlier in the coniferous-boreal forest than in the mixed-boreal forest to the south. The absence of changes in combustibility species in the pollen data that could explain the fire frequency transition suggests that the vegetation does not control the long-term fire regime in the boreal forest. 4 Climate appears to be the main process triggering fire. The increased frequency may be the result of more frequent drought due to the increasing influence of cool dry westerly Pacific air-masses from mid to late Holocene| and thus of conditions conducive to ignition and fire spread. In east Canada| this change matches other long-term climate proxies and suggests that a switch in atmospheric circulation 2-3000 years ago triggered a less stable climate with more dry summers. Future warming is moreover likely to reduce fire frequency. 3037,2001,4,4,Changes in daily and nightly day-to-day temperature variability during the twentieth century for two stations in Switzerland,An analysis of day-to-day variability was performed on two century-longs daily minimum and maximum temperature series from Switzerland. Warmer temperatures during the 20(th) century have been accompanied by a reduction in day-to-day variability| particularly for minimum temperatures and for winter. There is a significant negative correlation between day-to-day variability and the skewness of the temperature distribution| particularly in winter and for minimum temperatures. Lower variability is linked to a reduced number of cold days and nights. Higher NAO index values tend to be associated not only with warmer temperatures but also with lower day-to-day variability. This paper confirms that the temperature warming during the 20(th) century has happened mainly through the loss of the coldest part of the series| not only in the 24-hour or yearly cycle| but also through the loss of the coldest episodes in each month. 5572,2001,2,4,Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States,Fluctuations in spring climate in the western United States over the last 4-5 decades are described by examining changes in the blooming of plants and the timing of snowmelt-runoff pulses. The two measures of spring's onset that are employed are the timing of first bloom of lilac and honeysuckle bushes from a long-term cooperative phenological network| and the timing of the first major pulse of snowmelt recorded from high-elevation streams. Both measures contain year-to-year fluctuations| with typical year-to year fluctuations at a given site of one to three weeks. These fluctuations are spatially coherent| forming regional patterns that cover most of the west. Fluctuations in lilac first bloom dates are highly correlated to those of honeysuckle| and both are significantly correlated with those of the spring snowmelt pulse. Each of these measures| then| probably respond to a common mechanism. Various analyses indicate that anomalous temperature exerts the greatest influence upon both interannual and secular changes in the onset of spring in these networks. Earlier spring onsets since the late 1970s are a remarkable feature of the records| and reflect the unusual spell of warmer-than-normal springs in western North America during this period. The warm episodes are clearly related to larger-scale atmospheric conditions across North America and the North Pacific| but whether this is predominantly an expression of natural variability or also a symptom of global warming is not certain. 5582,2001,3,3,Characteristics and performance of a deep-ocean disposal system for low-purity CO2 gas via gas lift effect,Ocean sequestration of CO2 is a hopeful option to solve the global warming problems. We proposed the Gas Lift Advanced Dissolution (GLAD) System for efficient sequestration of pure CO2 at deep sea. The GLAD system is an inverse-J pipeline set in the ocean between 200 and 3000 m in depth. We have recently improved it to treat low-purity CO2 gas to reduce the cost for separation and capture of CO2 from exhausted gas. The newly developed system| named the Progressive Gas Lift Advanced Dissolution (P-GLAD) System| is to dissolve low-purity CO2 bubbles into seawater at a depth of 200-300 m and at the same time sequestrate CO2 at the deep sea of 1000-3000 m. Previous ideas of deep-sea sequestration of CO2| including storage of liquid CO2 on the deep-sea floor and direct releasing of liquid CO2 into the deep sea| necessitate the consumption of a huge amount of energy| because the realization of these ideas requires both high-purity capture of CO2 from exhausted gas and liquefaction of the CO2. To realize deep-sea sequestration of CO2 with low energy consumption and low environmental impact| we utilize a gas-lift effect to simultaneously dissolve low-purity CO2 gas into shallow seawater and transport the CO2 solution to a great depth. The present paper describes basic characteristics and performance of the P-GLAD system for low-purity CO2 gases| experimentally and numerically. It is demonstrated that the system has satisfactory ability to both dissolve CO2 gas and pump the CO2 solution. To confirm economic feasibility of the P-GLAD System| we also discuss the overall cost estimation including an additional system for CO2 capturing as well as the construction of P-GLAD. The cost for the P-GLAD is estimated to be half of those for previous ideas. 5503,2001,3,4,Characterization of iodoheptafluoropropane as a dielectric etchant. III. Effluent analysis,The work presented in this article represents the third and final part of a series of articles which present a systematic evaluation of iodoheptafluoropropane (C3F7I) as a potential replacement for perfluorocompound chemistries in dielectric etch applications. In the experiments discussed in this series| 1- and 2-iodoheptafluoropropane based etch processes had been employed in a via etch application in an inductively coupled high density plasma etch tool. Part I of this article discusses etch process behavior of 1- and 2-iodoheptafluoropropane| while Part Il examines films deposited by the I-iodo isomer. This article will focus on the composition of the process effluent stream| as characterized by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Data generated by both isomers of the compound will be presented and compared to those generated by conventional (C3F8- and C2F6-based) etch processes. Significant reductions in global warming emission (on the order of 80%-85%) were obtained relative to the conventional processes. Additionally| FTIR data were correlated with process and film analysis data presented in Parts I and II to generate better understanding of key plasma mechanisms in iodofluorocarbon etch environments. (C) 2001 American Vacuum Society. 5565,2001,4,4,Chinese life cycle impact assessments factors,The methodological basis and procedures for determination of Chinese normalization references and weighting factors according to the EDIP-method is described. According to Chinese industrial development intensity and population density| China was divided into three regions and the normalization references for each region were calculated on the basis of an inventory of all of the region's environmental emissions in 1990. The normalization reference was determined as the total environmental impact potential for the area in question in 1990(EP(j)(90)) divided by the population. The weighting factor was determined as the normalization reference (ER ( j)90) divided by society's target contribution in the year 2000 abased on Chinese political reduction plans| ER ( j)(T2000). This paper presents and discuss results obtained for eight different environmental impact categories relevant for China: global warming| stratospheric ozone depletion| acidification| nutrient enrichment| photochemical ozone formation and generation of bulk waste| hazardous waste and slag and ashes. 3029,2001,5,4,Climate analysis of endemic species - A novel method for quantitative analysis of global climate change since tertiary,There are many extant endemic plants in China| which were widely distributed in the North Hemisphere during Tertiary. The global cooling during the Tertiary caused a series of narrow distribution regions of the plants. Quaternary glaciation invaded most regions of North America and Eurasia where severe destruction was imposed onto vegetation. However| such destruction was lessened in China largely because of specific topographic and geographical and obviously| a number of other conditions accounted for an unusual refugee camp for the relies of plants in China| among which lots of endemic taxa exist. Recently| Chinese endemic species| such as Metaseqouia| Eucommia| have been employed to conduct multi-disciplinary comprehensive studies so as to analyze Tertiary climate changes quantitatively. Meanwhile| a rigorous method| i.e. climate analysis of endemic species (CAES) has come to maturation. This method is characteristic of some generality because it is supposed to be applicable to the endemic species in other regions of the world. CAES is involved in the following aspects: 1. Conduct multidisciplinary studies on living and fossil species of endemic plants and trace their evolutionary courses. 2. Compare fossil species with living one and clarify which is the nearest living relative (NLR) to fossil counterpart. 3. Fossils and their living counterparts (NLR) are supposed to have similar ecological requirements to meet their life cycles. 4. Investigate the geographic distribution of living and fossil plants within the same taxa and ascertain the dynamic changes of their distributions in geological age. 5. Analyze climate factors in the distribution of specific endemic taxa and obtain the data of climatic characters which are suitable for reconstruction of paleoclimate where fossil counterparts lived. 6. Further study the physio-ecology of living species and determinate paleoclimate where fossil counterparts lived. 7. Integrate analysis of the data from steps 4| 5 and 6| and quantitatively reconstruct the climate where fossil and living plants survive. 5551,2001,4,3,Climate and ozone response to increased stratospheric water vapor,Stratospheric water vapor abundance affects ozone| surface climate| and stratospheric temperatures. From 30-50 km altitude| temperatures show global decreases of 3-6 It over recent decades. These may be a proxy for water vapor increases| as the GISS climate model reproduces these trends only when stratospheric water vapor is allowed to increase. Observations suggest that stratospheric water vapor is indeed increasing| though measurements are extremely limited in either spatial coverage or duration. Model results suggest that the observed changes may be part of a global| long-term trend. Furthermore| the required water vapor change cannot be accounted for by increased stratospheric production| suggesting that climate change may be altering tropospheric input. The calculated water vapor increase contributes an additional approximate to 24% (approximate to0.2 W/m(2)) to the global warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases over the past two decades. Observed ozone depletion is also better reproduced when destruction due to increased water vapor is included. If the trend continues| it could increase future global warming and impede stratospheric ozone recovery. 5455,2001,4,4,Climate change and site: relevant mechanisms and modeling techniques,Forest growth modeling is moving away from description and toward explanation. The acceptance of global warming and effects related to climate change has reinforced this evolution. In the recent past| there have been several reviews of modeling techniques that have addressed| among other things| model structure and hierarchies within models. We argue that models seeking to adequately address climate change must include a specific suite of site characteristics. These range from primary effects of climate change (temperature| CO2| and O-3 increase) to secondary effects (increase in soil temperature| microbial activity| and changes in precipitation patterns) and tertiary effects (changes in tree phenology and photosynthesis). This paper (i) compares 12 existing individual tree growth simulators designed to address climate change or related effects| (ii) proposes a set of site-related mechanisms and entities to be included in any modeling framework to address climate change| and (iii) suggests appropriate lines of research to attain the goal of a model driven by climate and able to be initialized with readily available metrics. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2975,2001,4,4,Climate change and trend detection in selected rivers within the Asia-Pacific region,Global climate change is currently an issue of great concern. This phenomenon was studied using the runoff of large rivers| which can be considered a regional integrator of the local precipitation occurring in their basins. The long-term stationarity and the possibility of trends in streamflow records stored in the databank of the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC) at the Federal Institute of Hydrology in Koblenz (Germany) were studied. Runoff records originating from. 78 rivers with long monthly runoff series that are geographically distributed throughout the whole Asia-Pacific region were selected for study. For each of the selected rivers| three time series were constructed and analyzed: the mean yearly| and the maximum and minimum monthly discharges. These series were submitted to a two-tier analysis. First| a segmentation procedure developed by Hubert was applied to assess their stationarity. Then the segmented series were submitted to a specialized trend detection software. The results show that about two-thirds of the series have remained stationary and that the monthly minimum runoff exhibited more changing levels (37/78) than the mean (26/78) and maximum (18/78) runoff. Most of the detected changes occurred during the 1960s and 1970s| a period of rapid demographic expansion and urbanization in Asia| when irrigation and other water uses were developed| especially in tropical areas. During the same period and within the area studied| a number of large dams and reservoirs were completed. Since these anthropic interventions could be at the origin of the changes in runoff| there is no regionally consistent evidence supporting global climate change. 3013,2001,2,4,Climate change effects on vegetation distribution and carbon budget in the United States,The Kyoto protocol has focused the attention of the public and policymarkers on the earth's carbon (C) budget. Previous estimates of the impacts of vegetation change have been limited to equilibrium "snapshots" that could not capture nonlinear or threshold effects along the trajectory of change. New models have been designed to complement equilibrium models and simulate vegetation succession through time while estimating variability in the C budget and responses to episodic events such as drought and fire. In addition| a plethora of future climate scenarios has been used to produce a bewildering variety of simulated ecological responses. Our objectives were to use an equilibrium model (Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil system| or MAPSS) and a dynamic model (MCl) to (a) simulate changes in potential equilibrium-vegetation distribution under historical conditions and across a wide gradient of future temperature changes to look for consistencies and trends among the many future scenarios| (b) simulate time-dependent changes in vegetation distribution and its associated C pools to illustrate the possible trajectories of vegetation change near the high and low ends of the temperature gradient| and (c) analyze the extent of the US area supporting a negative C balance. Both models agree that a moderate increase in temperature produces an increase in vegetation density and carbon sequestration across most of the US with small changes in vegetation types. Large increases in temperature cause losses of C with large shifts in vegetation types. In the western states| particularly southern California| precipitation and thus vegetation density increase and forests expand under all but the hottest scenarios. In the eastern US| particularly the Southeast| forests expand under the more moderate scenarios but decline under more severe climate scenarios| with catastrophic fires potentially causing rapid vegetation conversions from forest to savanna. Both models show that there is a potential for either positive or negative feedbacks to the atmosphere depending on the level of warming in the climate change scenarios. 5608,2001,5,4,Climate changes in northern China since the late Pleistocene and its response to global change,Nine representative high resolution profiles with reliable C-14 chronologies have been chosen from the monsoon sensitive areas in China (winter monsoon from the north-west. and summer monsoon from the east) to provide a comparative picture of climate change within these areas. Comprehensive analyses of stratigraphic sequences and climatic proxy data ha||e been used to reconstruct a history of fluctuating dry and wet environmental conditions in these monsoon sensitive areas since the last deglaciation. These records have also been compared with Greenland ice core and Guliya ice core data. Four major events representing these climate fluctuations (E1-E4) are recognised. Among them| E3 indicates an abrupt cooling event after the Younger Dryas interval. This event has so far only been recognised in China and high latitude areas in the northern hemisphere. It is proposed that century to millenial scale global temperature changes affect the intensity of monsoon circulation through ocean/atmosphere interactions| hence producing dry and wet climate fluctuations in monsoon sensitive areas. In an era of global warming. the overall picture presented by the sequences of wet/dry periods recorded in Chinese monsoon affected areas during the last deglaciation can be used as an historical analogue for future predictions of medium to long term climate change within these areas. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 5661,2001,2,2,Climate model simulations of effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and loss of sea ice on ocean salinity and tracer uptake,Recent observations show a decrease in the extent of Northern Hemisphere sea ice; this decrease has been attributed to human activities. Climate model simulations are presented that examine how loss of sea ice affects the ocean salinity and density structure| and rates of uptake of an idealized transient tracer. The latter results are indicative of how loss of sea ice might affect the ocean's rate of uptake of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. In simulations in which there is no freshwater forcing due to sea ice forming or melting| the salinity minimum associated with Antarctic Intermediate Water is much weaker than in simulations of the present-day ocean. This suggests that this salinity minimum is maintained in part by a steady supply of freshwater from melting of Antarctic sea ice. In addition| in simulations with no freshwater forcing due to sea ice| vertical salinity and density gradients in the Southern and Arctic Oceans are weaker than in simulations of the present-day ocean. This supports the notion that these gradients are maintained in part by freshwater forcing due to the seasonal cycle of formation and melting of sea ice. As a result| loss of sea ice due to global warming would tend to decrease the stability in parts of the ocean; this opposes the well-known tendency of global warming to increase ocean stability by warming and freshening the upper ocean. Simulations of ocean uptake of an idealized transient tracer in both constant-CO2 and increasing-CO2 environments are performed to investigate the effects of physical changes in ocean and sea ice on transient tracer uptake. In the Southern Ocean| physical changes to the ocean and sea ice are found that result in slower transient tracer accumulation in most locations. When averaged over the entire Southern Ocean| however| these reductions are small| because changes in convective activity due to increased atmospheric CO2 are relatively small| and because transient tracer uptake is relatively insensitive to changes in convective activity. These results suggest that Southern Ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 may decrease less than previously supposed as global warming progresses. 2992,2001,5,4,Climate-driven range expansion and morphological evolution in a marine gastropod,Little is known about the phenotypic consequences of global climate change| despite the excellent Pleistocene fossil record of many taxa. We used morphological measurements from extant and Pleistocene populations of a marine gastropod (Acanthinucella spirata) in conjunction with mitochondrial DNA sequence variation from Living populations to determine how populations responded phenotypically to Pleistocene climatic changes. Northern populations show Little sequence variation as compared to southern populations| a pattern consistent with a recent northward range expansion. These recently recolonized northern populations also contain shell morphologies that are absent in extant southern populations and throughout the Pleistocene fossil record| Thus| contrary to traditional expectations that morphological evolution should occur Largely within Pleistocene refugia| our data show that geographical range shifts in response to climatic change can Lead to significant morphological evolution. 5566,2001,2,4,Climatic perspectives on Sahelian desiccation: 1973-1998,The African Sahel provides the most dramatic example of multi-decadal climate variability that has been quantitatively and directly measured. Annual rainfall across this region fell by between 20 and 30 per cent between the decades leading up to political independence for the Sahelian nations (1930s to 1950s) and the decades since (1970s to 1990s). Climatic perspectives on the nature and causes of this period of desiccation have changed and| in some cases| matured as the years - and the drought - continued. This paper reviews these changing perspectives and reflects on three central questions: How unique an occurrence has been this desiccation in the recent human history of the Sahel? Can we find an adequate explanation for this desiccation in the natural forces that shape the climate system| or do we have to implicate human interventions in the system? Is our understanding of climate variability sufficient to allow us to develop seasonal rainfall forecasting capabilities for the region? (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5474,2001,2,4,Climatological thresholds of daily rainfall,This technical note summarizes the results from daily rainfall data analysis with relation to annual rainfall amounts. By investigating the behavior of correlation coefficients between the annual rainfall amounts and the within-the-year cumulative frequency distribution functions of wet days with various threshold rainfall depths| it was found that (1) the annual rainfall amount is weakly correlated with the number of either dry or wet days-thus| the zero rainfall depth is not a proper threshold for the explanation of dry or wet years; and (2) there exist certain thresholds of daily rainfall depth (the climatological thresholds) with which the cumulative frequency of wet days can be well related with the annual rainfall amount. Also with this threshold| the wet and dry years can be seen divided clearly into separate groups of the cumulative frequency distribution functions| without any overlaps| which were common when using the zero rainfall depth as a threshold. Because it is found that there exist certain thresholds to be used for explaining the annual rainfall amount changes| these might also be used effectively for the analysis of possible changes in flood or drought patterns caused by global warming. 5504,2001,4,3,CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part II: model sensitivity,A set of sensitivity experiments with the climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 was performed to compare its sensitivity to changes in different types of forcings and boundary conditions with the results of comprehensive models (GCMs). We investigated the climate system response to changes in freshwater flux into the Northern Atlantic| CO2 concentration| solar insolation| and vegetation cover in the boreal zone and in the tropics. All these experiments were compared with the results of corresponding experiments performed with different GCMs. Qualitative| and in many respects| quantitative agreement between the results of CLIMBER-2 and GCMs demonstrate the ability of our climate system model of intermediate complexity to address diverse aspects of the climate change problem. In addition| we used our model for a series of experiments to assess the impact of some climate feedbacks and uncertainties in model parameters on the model sensitivity to different forcings. We studied the role of freshwater feedback and vertical ocean diffusivity for the stability properties of the thermohaline ocean circulation. We show that freshwater feedback plays a minor role| while changes of vertical diffusivity in the ocean considerably affect the circulation stability. In global warming experiments we analysed the impact of hydrological sensitivity and vertical diffusivity on the long-term evolution of the thermohaline circulation. In the boreal and tropical deforestation experiments we assessed the role of an interactive ocean and showed that for both types of deforestation scenarios| an interactive ocean leads to an additional cooling due to albedo and water vapour feedbacks. 2999,2001,5,4,Closing of the Indonesian seaway as a precursor to east African aridircation around 3-4 million years ago,Global climate change around 3-4 Myr ago is thought to have influenced the evolution of hominids| via the aridification of Africa| and may have been the precursor to Pleistocene glaciation about 2.75 Myr ago. Most explanations of these climatic events involve changes in circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean due to the closing of the Isthmus of Panama. Here we suggest| instead| that closure of the Indonesian seaway 3-4 Myr ago could be responsible for these climate changes| in particular the aridification of Africa. We use simple theory and results from an ocean circulation model to show that the northward displacement of New Guinea| about 5 Myr ago| may have switched the source of flow through Indonesia-from warm South Pacific to relatively cold North Pacific waters. This would have decreased sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean| leading to reduced rainfall over eastern Africa. We further suggest that the changes in the equatorial Pacific may have reduced atmospheric heat transport from the tropics to higher latitudes| stimulating global cooling and the eventual growth of ice sheets. 5489,2001,2,4,CO2 enrichment increases water-use efficiency in sorghum,Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) was grown for two consecutive seasons at Maricopa| AZ| USA| using the free-air CO| enrichment (FACE) approach to investigate evapotranspiration of this C4 plant at ample and limited water supplies. Crop evapotranspiration (ET) was measured using two CO2 concentrations (control| c. 370 mu mol mol(-1); FACE| ambient +200 mu mol mol(-1)) and two irrigation treatments (well watered and water-limited). Volumetric soil water content was measured before and after each irrigation using neutron scattering techniques. Averaged over both years| elevated CO2 reduced cumulative ET by 10% when plants were given ample water and by 4% under severe drought stress. Water-use efficiency based on grain yield (WUE-G) increased| due to CO2 enrichment| by 9% and 19% in wet and dry plots| respectively; based on total biomass| water-use efficiency (WUE-B) increased by 16% and 17% in wet and dry plots| respectively. These data suggest that in the future high-CO2 environment| water requirements for irrigated sorghum will be lower than at present| while dry-land productivity will increase| provided global warming is minimal. 5604,2001,2,4,Coastal management and sea-level rise,The predicted rise in sea level due to global warming has given rise to much speculation as to the impact on erosion and accretion rates at the coast as well as increases in hazards to coastal users. This paper focuses on the spatial adjustments that coastal landforms will exhibit in response to changing energy gradients both normal to and parallel to the shore. These adjustments| in many cases| will take the form of the migration of landforms in order that they maintain their position within the coastal energy gradient. Prediction of the rates of such migration will be fundamental to the future management of the changing coastal environment. The paper discusses the impact of sea-level rise on the two basic coastal landform assemblages: those in estuaries and those on the open coast| and then goes on to examine the effect on ebb-tidal deltas that are located at the critical junction between estuaries and open coasts. In each case| the rates of landform migration under an accelerated sea-level rise are predicted and compared with existing rates using examples from the east coast of Britain. Assuming a sea-level rise of 6 mm/year| the paper predicts that estuaries will migrate landwards at rates of around 10 m/year| open-coast landforms can exhibit long-shore migration rates of 50 m/year| while ebb-tidal deltas may extend laterally along the shore at rates of 300 m/year. The implication for the management of such dynamic coastal systems| including such issues as coastal defence and conservation| are discussed. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. 2951,2001,5,4,Coherent patterns of ice-rafted debris deposits in the Nordic regions during the last glacial (10-60 ka),We have synchronized records of ice-rafted rock debris deposits of three sediment cores from the Norwegian Sea and the Irminger Basin during the last glacial period from 10 to 50 ka by combining the use of radiocarbon dates and adjustments of physical properties. Our synchronized records indicate that layers rich in ice-rafted debris were deposited throughout the Nordic regions at times near to synchronous with the major collapses of the Laurentide ice sheet: during the Heinrich events. There are also millennial-scale| coherent and near to synchronous deposits of ice-rafted rock debris into the Norwegian Sea related to repetitive changes of the flux of icebergs from the Fenno-Scandinavian. The correlation with the cold phases of the Dansgaard-Oeschger temperature record points to a close coupling between atmospheric temperature oscillations and variations of iceberg fluxes into the Norwegian Sea during the last glacial. Variations in atmospheric circulation patterns bringing moisture supply to high latitudes and the distribution of this moisture over the different Northern Hemisphere coastal ice sheets and ice shelves could be controlling both the timing of ice sheet advances and the flux of iceberg to the open ocean. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5434,2001,2,2,Collapse and reorganisation of the Southern Ocean overturning under global warming in a coupled model,This study investigates the long-term behaviour of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the CSIRO climate model| under a scenario of transient increase of atmospheric (equivalent) CO2 concentration followed by a perpetual stabilisation at triple the initial level (3xCO(2)). The North Atlantic Deep Water Formation (NADWF) declines substantially and the Antarctic Bottom Water Formation (AABWF) essentially ceases by the time Of CO2 tripling. During the subsequent millennium of stable 3xCO(2)| NADWF recovers slightly but the AABWF shows no sign of returning and the residual deep overturning dies away. Accelerating the convergence to equilibrium of the deep ocean under the 3XCO2 condition| the global THC eventually reaches a near-stable state with the entire ocean warming by about 7 degreesC| NADWF fully recovered and AABWF partly re-established. This result shows a possible new quasiequilibrium of the ocean under long-term global warming induced by the anthropogenic CO2 increase. 5545,2001,2,4,Comments on the process and product of the health impacts assessment component of the national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the United States,In 1990 Congress formed the U.S. Global Change Research Program and required it to conduct a periodic national assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and change on all regions and select economic/resource sectors of the United States. Between 1998 and 2000| a team of experts collaborated on a health impacts assessment that formed the basis for the first National Assessment's analysis of the potential impacts of climate on human health. The health impacts assessment was integrated across a number of health disciplines and involved a search for and qualitative expert judgment review of data on the potential links between climate events and population health. Accomplishments included identification of vulnerable populations| adaptation strategies| research needs| and data gaps. Experts| stakeholders| and the public were involved. The assessment is reported in five articles in this issue; a summary was published in the April 2000 issue of Environmental Health Perspectives. The assessment report will enhance understanding of ways human health might be affected by various climate-associated stresses and of the need for further empirical and predictive research. Improved understanding and communication of the significance and inevitability of uncertainties in such an assessment are critical to further research and policy development. 5417,2001,2,4,Community persistence among stream invertebrates tracks the North Atlantic Oscillation,1. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects marine ecosystems| lakes and some terrestrial ecosystems around the Atlantic rim| but evidence for effects on rivers is scarce. For 14 years| we sampled riverine macroinvertebrates in eight independent streams from the Llyn Brianne experimental catchments in central Wales. We assessed whether year-to-year persistence in rank abundance and species composition tracked the NAO. 2. Persistence was quasi-cyclical and varied synchronously across all streams| irrespective of chemistry and catchment land use. Invertebrate communities in all stream types or habitats switched significantly from being highly persistent during negative phases of the NAO (winter index <1 = cold| dry winters) to unstable during positive phases (>1 = mild| wet winters). These effects occurred in both rare and common taxa. 3. Acid episodes could not explain low persistence in positive NAO years because variations in acid-base status were not linked to the NAO. Moreover| fluctuations in persistence were apparent even in well-buffered streams. 4. Discharge in adjacent gauged catchments increased in positive NAO years by 15-18% but neither flow variability nor flow maxima were higher. Nor were variations in invertebrate persistence at Llyn Brianne directly correlated with discharge pattern. Discharge variations alone were therefore insufficient to explain links between persistence and the NAO| but we cannot exclude subtle effects due either to flow or temperature. 5. These data illustrate how the persistence of invertebrate communities varies through time in fluctuating environments. Positive phases of the NAO are accompanied by ecological instability in the Llyn Brianne streams| although the exact mechanisms are currently unclear. The effects of the NAO might confound or obscure other long-term change in rivers such as recovery from acidification or the effects of global warming. 5457,2001,2,4,Comparative vessel anatomy of arctic deciduous and evergreen dicots,Arctic tundra plant species exhibit striking variation in leaf character and growth form. Both are likely related to differences in vessel anatomy| and all may affect responses to climate changes in the Arctic. To investigate the relationships among leaf character| growth form| vessel anatomy| and susceptibility to freeze-thaw-induced xylem cavitation| xylem vessel characteristics were compared among six deciduous and six evergreen arctic dicot species of erect and prostrate growth forms. We hypothesized that deciduous and erect species would have larger and longer vessels than evergreen and cushion/mat-forming species. Vessel lengths| diameters| and densities were measured for each species. Theoretical vessel flow rates were calculated using Poiseuille's law for ideal capillaries. Flow rates were used to determine the susceptibility of vessels to cavitation induced by freeze-thaw events that may become more frequent with global warming. Vessel diameters were larger in deciduous species compared to evergreens| and in shrubs/trees vs. cushion/mat-forming plants. Vessel length distributions| however| did not differ for growth form or leaf character. Vessel density was greater in cushion/mat-forming species than in shrub/tree species. Deciduous plants showed a greater contribution to total conductivity by relatively larger vessels than evergreens. One of the deciduous species| Vaccinium uliginosum| is predicted to be susceptible to freeze-thaw-induced cavitation. These results have important implications for future arctic species composition and plant community structure. 5609,2001,3,4,Comparing intensive| extensified and organic grassland farming in southern Germany by process life cycle assessment,To reduce the environmental burden of agriculture| suitable methods to comprehend and assess the impact on natural resources are needed. One of the methods considered is the life cycle assessment (LCA) method| which was used to assess the environmental impacts of 18 grassland farms in three different farming intensities - intensive| extensified| and organic - in the Allgau region in southern Germany. Extensified and organic compared with intensive farms could reduce negative effects in the abiotic impact categories of energy use| global warming potential (GWP) and ground water mainly by renouncing mineral nitrogen fertilizer. Energy consumption of intensive farms was 19.1 GJ ha(-1) and 2.7 GJ t(-1) milk| of extensified and organic farms 8.7 and 5.9 GJ ha(-1) along with 1.3 and 1.2 GJ t(-1) milk| respectively Global warming potential was 9.4| 7.0 and 6.3 CO2-equivalents ha(-1) and 1.3| 1.0 and 1.3 CO2-equivalents t(-1) milk for the intensive| extensified and organic farms| respectively. Acidification calculated in SO2-equivalents was high| but the extensified (119 kg SO2 ha(-1)) and the organic farms (107 kg SO2 ha(-1)) emit a lower amount compared with the intensive farms (136 kg SO2 ha(-1)). Eutrophication potential computed in PO4-equivalents was higher for intensive (54.2 kg PO4 ha(-1)) compared with extensified (31.2 kg PO4 ha(-1)) and organic farms (13.5 kg PO4 ha(-1)). Farmgate balances for N (80.1| 31.4 and 31.1 kg ha(-1)) and P (5.3| 4.5 and -2.3 kg ha(-1)) for intensive| extensified and organic farms| respectively| indicate the different impacts on ground and surface water quality. Analysing the impact categories biodiversity| landscape image and animal husbandry| organic farms had clear advantages in the indicators number of grassland species| grazing cattle| layout of farmstead and herd management| but indices in these categories showed a wide range and are partly independent of the farming system. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5411,2001,4,3,Comparison of climate change scenarios for Sweden based on statistical and dynamical downscaling of monthly precipitation,Two dynamically and statistically downscaled precipitation scenarios for Sweden are compared with respect to changes in the mean| The dynamically downscaled scenarios are generated by a 44 km version of the Rossby Centre regional climate model (RCM). The RCM is driven by data from 2 global greenhouse gas simulations sharing a 2.6degreesC global warming| one made by the HadCM2 and the other by the ECHAM4 general circulation model (GCM). The statistical downscaling model driven by the same GCMs is regression-based and incorporates large-scale circulation indices of the 2 geostrophic wind components (u and v)| total vorticity (xi) and large-scale humidity at 850 hPa (q850) as predictors. The precipitation climates of the GCMs| RCMs and statistical models from the control runs are compared with respect to their ability to reproduce the observed seasonal cycle. Great improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle by all the downscaling models compared to the GCMs significantly increase the credibility of the downscaling models| The precipitation changes produced by the statistical models result from changes in all predictors| but the change in 4 is the greatest contributor in southern Sweden followed by q850 and u| while changes in q850 have greater effects in the northern parts of the country. The temporal and spatial variability of precipitation changes are higher in the statistically downscaled scenarios than in the dynamically downscaled ones. Comparisons of the 4 scenarios show that the spread of the scenarios created by the statistical model is on average larger than that between the RCM scenarios. The relatively large average spread is mainly due to the large differences found in summer. The seasonally averaged difference of the dynamical and statistical scenarios for the ECHAM4-based downscaled scenarios is 12%| and for the HadCM2 downscaled scenarios 21%. The differences in annual precipitation change are smaller| on average 4.5% among the HadCM2-based downscaled scenarios| and 6.9% among the ECHAM4-based downscaling scenarios. 5459,2001,2,4,Competitive interactions between tree species in New Zealand's old-growth indigenous forests,New Zealand's four broad-leaved evergreen tree species from the genus Nothofagus all show pronounced distributional disjunctions| independent of environmental factors known to influence tree distributions. Here| we use these disjunctions as the basis for a natural removal experiment to investigate competitive interactions between Nothofagus and a range of other widespread conifer and broad-leaved tree species. We first model the abundance of non-Nothofagus species as a function of environment| using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and an extensive data set sampling much of New Zealand's remaining old-growth forests. We then assess the effects of competitive interaction with Nothofagus by adding statistical terms describing (1) Nothofagus abundance| and (2) interactions between Nothofagus abundance and annual temperature| the dominant environmental gradient. Results indicate substantial reductions in the abundance of many species as Nothofagus abundance increases. The magnitude of this reduction varies with position along the dominant environmental gradient; species overlapping most strongly with Nothofagus are generally most sensitive to increases in Nothofagus abundance. In addition| both the shapes of species responses to mean annual temperature and the positions of their optima change as Nothofagus abundance increases. This demonstration of competition using community compositional data has implications both for vegetation theory and for prediction of the likely impacts of global warming on New Zealand's forest pattern. 5561,2001,3,4,Complex ecologic-economic dynamics and environmental policy,Various complex dynamics in ecologic-economic systems are presented with an emphasis upon models of global warming dynamics and fishery dynamics. Chaotic and catastrophic dynamic patterns are shown to be possible| along with other complex dynamics arising from non-linearities in such combined systems. Problems associated with amplified oscillations due to these non-linear interactions in the combined interactions of human economic decisionmaking with ecological dynamics are identified and discussed. Implications for policy are examined with strong recommendations for greater emphasis| in particular upon the precautionary principle to avoid catastrophic collapses beyond critical thresholds and the Scale-Matching Principle to ensure that efforts to manage complex non-linear dynamics are directed at the appropriate levers of ecologic-economic interaction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5521,2001,5,4,Composite surface temperature history from simultaneous inversion of borehole temperatures in western Canadian plains,Functional space inversions (FSI) of precise temperature logs from wells located in low conductivity elastic sediments of the western Canadian Sedimentary Basin show evidence of extensive| recent ground surface temperature (GST) warming. Simultaneous inversion of the data| as well as averaging of the individual site reconstructions| indicate that this high magnitude of GST warming exceeds over two times that of globally averaged GST's [Science 282 (1998) 279] and is significantly higher than that of surface temperature histories based on instrumental records and tree ring reconstruction in northern and western Canada [Holocene 7 (1997) 375; Science 278 (1997) 1251; Clim. Res. 12 (1999) 39]. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5435,2001,2,4,Constraint to adaptive evolution in response to global warming,We characterized the genetic architecture of three populations of a native North American prairie plant in field conditions that simulate the warmer and more and climates predicted by global climate models. Despite genetic variance for traits under selection| among-trait genetic correlations that are antagonistic to the direction of selection limit adaptive evolution within these populations. Predicted rates of evolutionary response are much slower than the predicted rate of climate change. 3044,2001,5,4,Continuous Late Quaternary proxy climate records from loess in Beringia,Loess deposits in eastern Beringia contain continuous proxy records of the effects of past climatic change on terrestrial landscapes at high latitudes. Variations of environmental magnetism and sedimentology of high-latitude loess deposits indicate that the timing and pattern of responses to local variations in wind intensity| storminess| and pedogenesis in eastern Beringia closely resemble the pattern of global climate change during the Late Quaternary deduced from studies of marine and ice core records. The age of paleoclimatic fluctuations| permafrost features| volcanic ash horizons| buried forest layers and paleosols| and other features of the eastern Beringian loess record can be determined using a variety of Quaternary dating methods. Tephrochronologic correlations between the loess record and the glacial history of eastern Beringia indicate the Delta Glaciation occurred during marine isotope stage 6. Several other middle and Late Quaternary glaciations across eastern Beringia can be tephrochronologically tied to the loess record| and appear to have been in phase with episodes of global cooling recorded in deep-sea records. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5648,2001,3,3,Control of black carbon| the most effective means of slowing global warming,Under the Kyoto Protocol of 1997| no control of black carbon (BC) was considered. Recent studies| though| have suggested that BC and non-CO2 greenhouse-gas emission controls might slow global warming. Yet| no study has compared the effects| over time| of theoretically redcing BC versus CO2 or CH4 emissions. In this study| a global model was used to compare the effects of such reductions. The model treated eight important feedbacks of aerosols to climate. Results suggest that the most efficient method of controlling global warming over the next 20-50 years| in terms of the magnitude and speed of a cooling| is control of fossilfuel BC and associated organic matter. It is further shown that late-model diesel vehicles enhance global warming more than do equivalent gasoline vehicles| yet fuel-tax and carbon-tax laws favor diesel in many countries. It is concluded that control strategies for global warming should include control of BC along with control of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
5393,2001,3,3,Coordination and route optimization of agricultural goods transport to attenuate environmental impact,This paper reports the study made on goods flow to| from| and within the agricultural sector in Uppsala region in Sweden in 1999. Agricultural and related goods transport has increased steadily in the recent decades| and empty haulage is common (up to about 45%) in the sector. The resulting transport intensification leads to environmental degradation by contributing to air pollution| global warming| ozone depletion| resource depletion| congestion and traffic accidents. The main objective of the current work is to map out the material flow and to investigate the possibilities of coordinated transport of agricultural produce and agricultural means of production| supported by information technology. It is assumed that the information achieved through this investigation will assist to develop an effective transport-logistics system| which may enable an efficient utilization of vehicles to meet the current demand for attenuating environmental impacts. Data collection on daily goods distribution and collection including geographical location of collections/distribution points and routes was done using the global positioning system| GPS. A total of 196 routes were measured and optimization of goods distribution/collection and route was done made using the gathered data to estimate the environmental benefit. Possibilities and constraints of coordinated goods distribution and collection were analysed. Optimization of routes and distribution/collection and the computed emissions from the vehicles as a result of optimization are presented. (C) 2001 Silsoe Research Institute. 5573,2001,2,4,Coral bleaching: the winners and the losers,Sea surface temperatures were warmer throughout 1998 at Sesolto Island| Japan| than in the 10 preceding years. Temperatures peaked at 2.8 degreesC: above average| resulting in extensive coral bleaching and subsequent coral mortality. Using random quadrat surveys| we quantitatively documented the coral community structure one year before and one year after the bleaching event. The 1998 bleaching event reduced coral species richness by 61% and reduced coral cover by 85%. Colony morphology affected bleaching vulnerability and subsequent coral mortality. Finely branched corals were most susceptible| while massive and encrusting colonies survived. Most heavily impacted mere the branched Acropora and pocilloporid corals| some of which showed local extinction. we suggest two hypotheses whose synergistic effect may partially explain observed mortality patterns (i.e. preferential survival of thick-tissued species| and shape-dependent differences in colon) mass-transfer efficiency). A community-structural shift occurred on Okinawan reefs| resulting in an increase in the relative abundance of massive and encrusting coral species. 5428,2001,3,3,Cost-effective reductions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases,To date| most of the focus on greenhouse gas emission reductions has been on energy-related CO2 emissions. This is understandable since CO2 emissions currently account for about 82 percent of the total US greenhouse gas emissions weighted by 100-year global warming potentials (EPA| www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/emissions| 2001a).(1) However| a number of analyses suggest that the non-CO2 greenhouse gases included in the Kyoto Protocol-methane| nitrous oxide| and the high-GWP (global warming potential) gases (HFCs| PFCs| and SF6)-can make a significant contribution to cost-effective emission reductions for the US and other countries. Our current estimate for the US is a reduction in non-CO2 emissions of 105 million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) at $50/ton carbon equivalent in 2010. This paper provides a perspective on the current and projected emissions of greenhouse gas; outlines the potential methods for achieving emissions reductions for various sources; and summarizes several recent studies on the cost of reductions for the US and other countries. Although the paper does not specifically address the potential for reductions of these gases in individual countries outside the US and the European Union| its findings are generally applicable to many countries. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 5568,2001,3,3,Development of environmentally-conscious steel products at the Nippon Steel Corporation,Global environmental problems| including global warming| are extremely important and urgent issues for humankind. The human society that has pursued and enjoyed only the development of global civilization now faces the challenging proposition of sustainable development. In recent years| Japan's steel industry has positioned global environmental compliance as an important objective in corporate activities and has taken Various initiatives to contribute to this sustainable development. These environmental initiatives can be considered in three main categories: (1) reduction in CO2 emissions and energy consumption; (2) promotion of recycling and zero-waste; and (3) environmental protection and environmental improvement. Based on this concept| Nippon Steel has implemented environmental measures for steel production processes and has promoted the development of various environmentally friendly products to meet the requirements of diverse consuming industries. The initiatives launched by Nippon Steel in the development of environmentally conscious steel products (eco-products) for each kind of steel market are introduced here. Representative eco-products that meet the requirements of these industries are described. The 21st Century is said to be the 'century of environment'. Steel will be continued to be utilized as an eco-material in the next century. Nippon Steel will make great contributions to global environmental protection as an 'eco-company' with 'eco-products' and 'eco-processes'. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. AU rights reserved. 5636,2001,5,4,Did the Antarctic ice sheets expand during the early Pliocene?,Seismic data show that glacial unconformities are located within lower Pliocene strata on the Antarctic continental shelves. The glacial unconformities are significant because they provide direct evidence that the Antarctic ice sheets advanced despite the generally warmer climates and elevated sea levels that characterized most of the early Pliocene. The magnitudes of peak eustatic lowstands and O-18 enrichments indicate that the ice volume on Antarctica may have exceeded today's ice volume by approximately 18%| which suggests that the ice-sheet grounding events on the shelves probably were associated with larger than present ice volumes on two to three occasions during the early Pliocene. 3008,2001,4,4,Digital ecological model and case study on China water condition,Digital Ecological Model (DEM) is a platform developed with Java. It consists of six components: DEMGIS| DEMTSA| DEMSTA| DEMMOD| DEMVIEW| and DEMAPPLET. DEMGIS features major functions of geographic information system (GIS)| such as building digital elevation model| managing gee-referenced database| translating vector data into raster data| and generating geographic graphs with different projections. DEMTSA is used to interpolate the scattered climatic data into raster data| by means of trend surface analysis (TSA) method and interpolation method. As a plug-in for GIS| DEMSTA provides some widely used statistic methods. DEMMOD is a platform for building process-based landscape model. It provides a visual interface - Visual Programming Interface of Digital Ecological Model (DEMVPI) for ecologists to 'write' and record the models in an interpretation language - Ecological Description Language of Digital Ecological Model (DEMEDL). Ecological Model Interpreter of Digital Ecological Model (DEMEMI) is responsible for compiling the programs written in DEMEDL| running the model and displaying the results. DEMVIEW is a tool for viewing and editing some geographic graphs. DEMAPPLET can link a Java applet with gee-referenced database and display the simulation results on the Internet. All the codes of DEM were compiled into Java application programs| and some of the programs are available on the Internet as Java applets. As a case study| amended Penman's method was used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration and aridity index of China| under present situation and three prescribed climate scenarios| which include raising mean temperature by 1.5| 3.0 and 4.5 degreesC| and raising precipitation by 10%| to assess the potential impacts of global climate change on China water condition. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5632,2001,2,4,Distribution of slushflows in northern Europe and their potential change due to global warming,The distribution of slushflows in northern Europe is described. Schematic maps of the beginning and ending periods of slushflow risk are presented. The months with maximum slushflow activity are also shown. Potential changes in the geographic and temporal distribution of slushflows due to global warming were analyzed for this region. Calculations for the year 2050 were done on the basis of climatic changes given by three global circulation models. The method of calculation was based on the general relationships between climatic parameters and the geographical and temporal distribution of slushflows. Schematic maps of potential distribution of slushflows show changes when calculated according to the most extreme of the three climatic-change scenarios. 3025,2001,4,4,Does the fresh water supply from the Amur river flowing into the sea of Okhotsk affect sea ice formation?,The impacts of ground hydrology on the high-latitude oceans| such as melting glaciers and discharge from rivers into the oceans| can affect global climate by mediating the flow of low-density| fresh water inflow that strengthens the ocean's stratification. This suppresses the thermohaline circulation| and also promotes sea-ice formation. Our time series analysis based on sea-ice and river-discharge data indicates that the effect of this fresh water on the sea-ice in the Okhotsk Sea| into which the second largest Siberian River| the Amur| discharges| is relatively unimportant. Interannual variations in the ice extent are negatively correlated with the amount of discharge. We find circumstantial evidence that the inflow of warmer river water tends to raise the sea surface temperature| and that it suppresses ice formation in the following winter. This potential explanation for the negative correlation implies that sensible heat transported by large rivers in high latitudes should be reconsidered in studying global climate change. 5607,2001,2,4,Domoic acid: a fascinating marine toxin,There are indications that toxic algal blooms are increasing because of pollution of coastal waters and worldwide shipping. This mini-review deals with the marine biotoxin domoic acid| also known as amnesic shellfish poison| and its main producing pennate diatom genus Pseudo-nitzschia (Bacillariophyceae). Besides contamination of seafood| these organisms have also been involved in human and marine wildlife mortality. The article aims to give an overview of all biological and environmental factors that should be considered when trying to evaluate a possible increase in toxic blooms of Pseudo-nitzschia spp.. Pseudo-nitzschia blooms characteristically occur in a low light regime| at a time when the temperature is falling and at a wide range of salinities. Laboratory studies have shown that the production of domoic acid| a water-soluble amino acid| is related to silicon| phosphorus| nitrogen and trace metal (mainly iron) availability. Domoic acid has no known function in defence or primary metabolism; a role in excretion of excess photosynthetic energy or as a binding ligand for trace metals is suggested. The variability in domoic acid production by different Pseudo-nitzschia spp.| or the presence of toxic and non-toxic strains of the same species| cannot be explained. The conclusion is drawn that an increase in toxic blooms of Pseudo-nitzschia spp. might be possible| especially because of the expected increase in nutrient availability from pollution and desert dust. Global warming may have an influence as well by lengthening the growth period for Pseudo-nitzschia| enlarging their global distribution and increasing the dust load through desertification. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3021,2001,4,4,Downscaling of greenhouse gas induced climate change in two GCMs with the Rossby Centre regional climate model for northern Europe,Two 2 x 10-year climate change experiments made with the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model(RCA) are reported. These two experiments are driven by boundary data from two global climate change simulations| one made with HadCM2 and the other with ECKAM4/OPYC3| in which the global mean warming is virtually the same| 2.6 degreesC. The changes in mean temperature and precipitation show similarities (including broadly the same increase in temperature and in northern Europe a general increase in annual precipitation) as well as differences between the two RCA experiments. These changes are strongly governed by the driving GCM simulations. Even on the RCA grid box scale| the differences in change between RCA and the driving GCM are generally smaller than the differences between the two GCMs. Typically about a half of the local differences between the two RCA simulations are attributed to noise generated by internal variability| which also seems to explain a substantial part of the RCA-GCM differences particularly for precipitation change. RCA includes interactive model components for the Baltic Sea and inland lakes of northern Europe. The simulated changes in these water bodies are discussed with emphasis on the wintertime ice conditions. Comparison with an earlier RCA experiment indicates that a physically consistent treatment of these water bodies is also of importance for the simulated atmospheric climate change. 5559,2001,2,4,Drought and the consequences of El Nino in Borneo: a case study of figs,Borneo has a perhumid climate but occasional severe droughts have an important impact. Droughts may affect the composition and size structure of plant communities through differential mortality or| via their impact on the availability of plant resources| affect plant-animal interactions. From January to April 1998| northern Borneo suffered a very severe drought linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation event of 1997-1998. In this article| the impacts of this drought on the rain forest at Lambir Hills National Park| Sarawak| are considered with special reference to a keystone plant group| the figs. Small fires entered the edge of the forest from the roadside| killing saplings| climbers| and understory trees. Community-wide mortality for adult trees was 0-7 times higher than in nondrought years| with larger trees showing a greater proportional increase. In figs| mortality was significantly higher in pioneers| but hemiepiphytes and roadside species were unaffected. Phenology was substantially affected. Leaf and flower/fruit production decreased or ceased during the drought and increased suddenly following renewed rain. Pollinators of dioecious figs became locally extinct during the drought| and other plant-animal interactions may also have been disrupted. The frequency and severity of droughts has increased substantially in the past three decades| and climate models suggest this may be the result of global warming. The impacts of the 1998 drought at Lambir Hills National Park suggest that| should this trend continue| a substantial alteration of habitats and overall loss of biodiversity can be expected in Borneo. 2977,2001,2,3,Dynamic responses of African ecosystem carbon cycling to climate change,Global climate change has been modifying ecosystem carbon cycling| which has produced feedbacks on climate by affecting the concentration of atmospheric CO2. The importance of biospheric CO2 uptake or release to climate change has generated great interest in quantifying the dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling to climate change. However| less attention has been given to Africa| although it accounts for about one-fifth of the global net primary production and is one of the regions that have the greatest climate change. Here we use a biogeochemical model to simulate the dynamic variations in the carbon fluxes and stocks of African ecosystems caused by changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 from 1901 and 1995. We estimate that climate change reduces plant production and soil carbon stocks and causes net CO2 release| but the fertilization effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis reverses the reduction and leads to carbon accumulation in vegetation. Therefore| the combined effect of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 causes net CO2 uptake| particularly in central Africa. The mean rate of the carbon sequestration in the period 1981-1995 is calculated to be 0.34 Gt C yr(-1). Nevertheless| Africa is not necessarily a significant carbon sink| because a large part of the carbon sequestration is offset by the carbon release arising from land use changes. 5567,2001,2,4,Earlier plant flowering in spring as a response to global warming in the Washington| DC| area,Evidence for global warming is inferred from spring advances in first-flowering in plants. The trend of average first-flowering times per year for the study group shows a significant advance of 2.4 days over a 30-year period. When 11 species that exhibit later first-flowering times are excluded from the data set| the remaining 89 show a significant advance of 4.5 days. Significant trends for earlier-flowering species range from -3.2 to -46 days| while those for later-flowering species range from +3.1 to +10.4 days. Advances of first-flowering in these 89 species are directly correlated with local increase in minimum temperature (T-min). 5525,2001,3,3,Economic feasibility of co-producing bioethanol and glycerol from grain and cane molasses fermentations,With crude oil at $30.00 per barrel| bioethanol is a viable fuel alternative. Bioethanol is clean burning| has high octane numbers| is renewable and does not contribute to global warming. However| in the absence of tax credits| the production of bioethanol is less attractive. A determination of return-on-investment was carried out based on tests to optimise the co-production of bioethanol and a high-value product| glycerol. Using corn or mile (grain sorghum) as the raw material| the return-on-investment increases from 12.3% (bioethanol) to 19.7% (bioethanol plus glycerol). When blackstrap molasses is the raw material| the return-on-investment increases from 12.8% (bioethanol) to 22.3% (bioethanol plus glycerol). Therefore| value-added products such as glycerol are the key to making fuel ethanol plants profitable now and in the future. 3011,2001,2,4,Economic implications of potential ENSO frequency and strength shifts,Some argue that global climate change may alter the frequency and strength of extreme events. This paper examines the economic damages in the agricultural sector arising from a shift in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event frequency and strength. The assumptions about the frequency of ENSO shift are motivated by an article by Timmermann et al. (1999). The damage estimates reported here are in the context of the global agricultural system. Annual damages in the 3 to 4 hundred million U.S. dollar range are found if only the frequency of ENSO events changes. However| annual damages rise to over $1 billion if the events also intensify in strength. Event anticipation and crop mix adaption on the part of farmers can help offset the damages but cannot fully alleviate them. 5621,2001,3,4,Effect of carvacrol and thymol on odor emissions from livestock wastes,A majority of the beef cattle and swine in the United States is produced in confined facilities. This generates significant environmental pollutants from the waste produced| including global warming gases| odor| and pathogens. The objectives of this study were to control the fermentation activity and pathogens in cattle and swine wastes with antimicrobial plant essential oils. Anaerobic one litre flasks with a working volume of 0.5 l were used to evaluate the effect of carvacrol and thymol on production of fermentation gas| short-chain volatile fatty acids| lactate| and bacterial populations. In cattle waste| 1 gl(-1) each of carvacrol and thymol completely inhibited the production of volatile fatty acids and lactate over 23 days. In swine waste| 2.5 gl(-1) carvacrol inhibited the production of all volatile fatty acids. We conclude that these essential oils are effective in controlling livestock waste odor emissions and field studies are warranted. 3009,2001,2,4,Effect of climatic gradients on the photosynthetic responses of four Phragmites australis populations,Four populations of Phragmites australis collected from geographically distinct areas in Europe were propagated in outdoor experimental plots at four sites with dissimilar climate (Denmark| The Netherlands| Spain and Czech Republic). During the second growing season the photosynthetic characteristics of Phragmites leaves were evaluated under controlled conditions for each site| each population| and their interaction| and related to tissue nutrient and pigment content. The light-saturated rate of photosynthesis (P-max)| dark respiration rate (R-d)| light compensation point (I-c)| and apparent quantum efficiency (phi (i)) were significantly affected by growth site| whereas differences between populations were less pronounced. Plants grown in the more northerly climates appeared to be more photosynthetically limited through lower P-max values and lower phi (i) levels| reflecting phenotypic acclimation to the lower summer temperatures and irradiance levels at the northern growth sites. The higher P-max levels in the southern climate were correlated with higher nutrient levels in the tissue of leaves. The study shows that the four genetically distinct populations of P. australis exhibited high phenotypic plasticity in photosynthetic response to climatic change. The degree of photosynthetic plasticity within P. australis genotypes is large| and generally larger than the genetically determined differences between European populations. The results are discussed in relation to the prospected global climate change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5533,2001,3,4,Effect of nitrogen plasma conditions on electrical properties of silicon oxynitrided thin films for flash memory applications,Thin silicon oxynitride films were deposited on Si(100) substrates using nitrogen plasma at various exposure times| followed by thermal oxidation in dry O-2 without the use of toxic or global warming gases. Secondary ion mass spectroscopy measurements confirmed that nitrogen is confined to the immediate vicinity of the surface. The damage induced in the thin silicon oxynitride film after exposure to nitrogen plasma for between 10 and 60 s was estimated from an analysis of capacitance-voltage and current-voltage measurements. Generation of different densities of positive oxide charge was observed. Correlation between the local bonding structures in the oxynitride films and the electrically active defective states at the oxynitride/Si interface are also discussed. It is proposed that improved electrical characteristics such as positive charge trapping| interface state density| leakage current| and stress immunity of thin silicon oxynitride films| can be obtained by using an optimal plasma exposure time of approximately 30 s. The preliminary results obtained in this study indicate that these oxynitride films can be considered as potential candidates for ultra-thin gate oxide flash memory applications. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5471,2001,3,3,Effect of O-2(CO2)/C4F8O gas combinations on global warming gas emission in silicon nitride PECVD plasma cleaning,In this study| O-2/C4F8O and CO2/C4F8O have been used as the chemicals for plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) chamber-cleaning of silicon nitride| and the effects of gas mixture and operational pressure on the silicon-nitride cleaning rate and emission properties| such as emission species| destruction and removal efficiencies (DREs)| and million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE)| have been investigated. O-2/C4F8O generally showed a higher silicon-nitride cleaning rate compared to CO2/C4F8O| possibly due to the removal of fluorine by carbon in CO2. The highest silicon-nitride cleaning rate obtained with O-2/C4F8O was approximately 600 nm/min for 80% O-2/20% C4F8O at 66.7 Pa (500 mtorr)| 40 sccm| 150 W of 13.56-MHz RF power| and without substrate heating. Emission species| such as CF4| COF2 and CO2| were observed through the exhaust line during silicon nitride cleaning| in addition to the undestructed remaining feed gases. The quantities of these emission species were higher than that of C4F8O fed through the cleaning chamber. With 80% O-2/20% C4F8O| the highest DREs and the lowest MMTCE obtained were 92% and 3 X 10(-10) respectively. In the case of CO2/C4F8O| silicon nitride cleaning rates were lower| the DRE was lower and MMTCEs were higher than those of O-2/C4F8O. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2996,2001,2,4,Effect of the 1997-1998 ENSO-related drought on hydrology and salinity in a Micronesian wetland complex,The potential effects of global climate change on coastal ecosystems have attracted considerable attention| but the impacts of shorter-term climate perturbations such as ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) are lesser known. In this study| we determined the effects of the 1997-1998 ENSO-related drought on the hydrology and salinity of a Micronesian mangrove ecosystem and an adjacent freshwater swamp. A network of 9 piezometer clusters installed at the study site served as sampling points for continuous and manual measurements of salinity and water level. During the drought period from January through April 1998| mean water table levels in the mangroves and freshwater swamp were approximately 12 and 54 cm lower| respectively| than during May through December when precipitation returned to near normal levels. At the peak of the drought (February 1998)| the most dramatic result was a reversal in groundwater flow that sent groundwater from the mangroves upstream toward the freshwater swamp. Flow nets constructed for this period and immediately after illustrate the strong hydrological linkage between the two systems. This linkage was also illustrated by measurements of groundwater salinity in the piezometer network. Ninety-six percent of the salinity measurements taken in the mangroves during the study were at least 10 parts per thousand less than the salinity of sea water| indicating that the mangroves were consistently receiving freshwater flows. An analysis of variance of groundwater salinity measurements during and after the drought showed that salinity levels in the 0.5 and 1.0 m depth piezometers were greater during than after the drought. In a comparison of salinity values in 0.5-m wells during low tide| mean salinity was approximately twice as high during the drought than after (14.7 parts per thousand versus 6.2 parts per thousand| respectively). This study demonstrates that short-term climate perturbations such as ENSO can disrupt important coastal processes. Over repeated drought cycles| such perturbations have the potential to affect the structure and function of mangrove forests and upstream ecosystems. 2988,2001,2,4,Effects of climatic change on a water dependent regional economy: A study of the Texas Edwards Aquifer,Global climate change portends shifts in water demand and availability which may damage or cause intersectoral water reallocation in water short regions. This study investigates effects of climatic change on regional water demand and supply as well as the economy in the San Antonio Texas Edwards Aquifer region. This is done using a regional model which portrays both hydrological and economic activities. The overall results indicate that changes in climatic conditions reduce water resource availability and increase water demand. Specifically| a regional welfare loss of $2.2-$6.8 million per year may occur as a result of climatic change. Additionally| if springflows are to be maintained at the currently desired level to protect endangered species| pumping must be reduced by 9-20% at an additional cost of $0.5 to $2 million per year. 5413,2001,2,3,Effects of glacial meltwater in the GISS coupled atmosphere ocean model - 1. North Atlantic Deep Water response,Varying magnitudes of freshwater input through the St. Lawrence are added to different versions of the GISS coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The results show a generally linear response in percentage North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) reduction to the volume of water added without any obvious threshold effects. When the estimated best guess freshwater input for the Allerod-Younger Dryas interval is added| only small reductions in NADW production occur in less than a century| with complete cessation requiring more than 300 years. If the ocean circulation was weaker in the Allerod preceding the Younger Dryas| somewhat larger percentage reductions occur| and it would take 150-200 years for a complete shutdown. The freshening is aided by a positive feedback associated with the reduction in evaporation relative to precipitation in the North Atlantic| amounting to some 20-30% of the added freshwater runoff. When the freshwater input is stopped after complete NADW shutdown| NADW production does not resume. With complete NADW cessation| cooling eventually occurs throughout the Northern Hemisphere| including regions where it is not thought to have arisen during the Younger Dryas| and the globe cools by 1 degreesC due primarily to the sea ice albedo feedback; while in many regions the observed cooling is reproduced| the cooling in Greenland is much less than is estimated. With only 50% NADW cessation| cooling is primarily around the North Atlantic| No rapid warming is seen in response to freshwater cessation. The sensitivity displayed here for NADW reduction due to freshwater input from the St. Lawrence is roughly similar to that associated with increased precipitation accompanying global warming in the next century| so a similar sensitivity may arise with Younger Dryas freshwater inputs from other suspected locations (Greenland| Europe). 3018,2001,2,4,Effects of global climate change on coastal salt marshes,A methodology combining ecological modelling with geographical information analysis and remote sensing was employed to determine the effects of sea-level rise in estuarine salt marshes| using the Tagus estuary (Portugal) as a case study. The development of salt marsh vegetation was simulated separately for C3 and C4 plants| using a combined biogeochemical and demographic model. This simulation| which provided small-scale (m(2)) results of annual above-ground primary production| was upscaled to the whole salt marsh area| using bathymetry data| remote sensing and Geographic information System (GIS) for assessing vegetation cover and determining areal distribution of C3 and C4 vegetation. Based on IPCC data| several sea-level rise scenarios were considered| and the coupled ecological model-GIS were applied to these in order to determine changes in global salt marsh productivity. The results indicate that the salt marshes of the mesotidal estuaries such as the Tagus are susceptible to sea-level rise only in a worst case scenario| which is more likely to occur if the terms set out by the Kyoto protocol are not met by several industrialised nations. The low vulnerability of salt marshes supports the suggestion that areas with high tidal ranges are less vulnerable to sea level change| due to greater sediment transport and accretion. Nevertheless| the precautionary principle should always be applied by coastal planners| due to the great uncertainty surrounding forecasts of sea-level rise. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2965,2001,2,4,Effects of global climate change on geographic distributions of Mexican Cracidae,Although climate change and its implications are a frequent subject of detailed study| the effects of these changes on species' geographic distributions remain little explored. We present a first cross-species analysis of the effects of global climate change on the distributions of one bird family| the Cracidae| in Mexico| based on projecting models of ecological niches from present conditions to modeled future conditions taken from general circulation models of climate change. Based on two different scenarios of climate change and on three assumptions regarding species' dispersal abilities| effects on species' distributions range from drastic reduction to modest increases. These results illustrate the complex nature of species' geographic responses to environmental change| and emphasize the need for detailed analysis of individual species' ecological requirements. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5587,2001,2,4,Effects of simulated climate change on the hydrology of major river basins,Changes in the climatology of precipitation| evapotranspiration| and soil moisture lead also to changes in runoff and streamflow. The potential effects of global warming on the hydrology of 23 major rivers are investigated. The runoff simulated by the Canadian Cetre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model for the current climate is routed through the river system to the river mouth and compared with results for the warmer climate simulated to occur towards the end of the century. Changes in mean discharge| in the amplitude and phase of the annual streamflow cycle| in the annual maximum discharge (the flood) and its standard deviation| and in flow duration curves are all examined. Changes in flood magnitudes for different return periods are estimated using extreme value analysis. In the warmer climate| there is a general decrease in runoff and 15 out of the 23 rivers considered experience a reduction in annual mean discharge (with a median reduction of 32%). The changes in runoff are not uniform and discharge increases for 8 rivers (with a median increase of 13%). Middle- and high- latitude rivers typically show marked changes in the amplitude and phase of their annual cycle associated with a decrease in snowfall and an earlier spring melt in the warmer climate. Low-latitude rivers exhibit changes in mean discharge but modest changes in their annual cycle. The analysis of annual flood magnitudes show that 17 out of 23 rivers experience a reduction in mean annual flood (a median reduction of 20%). Changes in now duration curves are used to characterize the different kinds of behavior exhibited by different groups of rivers. Differences in the regional distribution of simulated precipitation and runoff for the control simulation currently limit the application of the approach. The inferred hydrological changes are| nevertheless| plausible and consistent responses to simulated changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration and indicate the kinds of hydrological changes that could occur in a warmer climate. 5401,2001,4,3,Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO(2) on global climate in the next two centuries,Previous coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations showed that the reduction in global warming is only moderate by year 2100 under CO(2) stabilization (STA) scenarios compared with that under business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. To further illustrate the long-term effect of stabilizing CO(2) on global climate| we integrated a coupled ocean-atmosphere model from 1870 to 2200 forced by historical and projected CO(2)| SO(2) and other greenhouse gases under newly updated BAU and STA scenarios. Our results show that the reduction in global warming resulting from CO(2) stabilization could be large (similar to1.5 degreesC globally| and up to 12 degreesC in DJF at northern high-latitudes) by the later part of the 22(nd) century. Stabilizing the CO(2) level also results in reduced changes in precipitation| soil moisture and diurnal temperature range. BAU and STA patterns of change are similar for all variables examined. 5450,2001,2,4,Emerging paradigms for water management in the 21st century - Lecture Enzo Levi 2000,The objective of this paper is to show that water resources management is going through a deep crisis that will be overcome only if a substantial change towards new mental models| new paradigms of water management is produced. An overview of the present water problems in Mexico and worldwide is presented| including global uses| consumption practices and trends. The discussion includes the foreseeable effects on water resources of the global warming as well as some of the ruling principles that| according to the author's point of view| will constitute the base of new thinking models in water management: a global approach to water management| world vision of water and its five ruling conditions| systemic thinking and integrated management. An application of the systemic archetypes to the overexploitation of aquifers is also presented. 5472,2001,3,4,Emissions of ammonia| nitrous oxide and methane from different types of dairy manure during storage as affected by dietary protein content,In a storage experiment with dairy cow manure| the effects of dietary protein content and manure type on ammonia| nitrous oxide and methane volatilization as well as overall nitrogen (N) loss from manure were investigated. Early-lactating cows received rations with 175| 150 and 125 g crude protein/kg dry matter. Each ration was tested in four manure storage systems reflecting typical farm conditions. These either contained total excreta with high amounts of straw (deep litter manure) or no straw (slurry) or| proportionately| 0.9 of urine and 0.1 of faeces (urine-rich slurry) complemented by the residuals with a low amount of straw (farmyard manure). Manure samples were stored for 7 weeks under controlled conditions and trace gas emission was repeatedly measured. Reduction of N intake decreased daily N excretion and urine N proportion and| on average| led to 0.7-fold lower storage ammonia emission rates on average. Total storage N loss was simultaneously reduced with the extent depending on urine N proportion of the respective manures. A lower dietary protein content furthermore reduced nitrous oxide emission rates in most manure types but increased methane emission from urine-rich slurry; however| global warming potential (based on trace gas output) of all manures was similar with low and high dietary protein content. In deep litter manure| characterized by the highest C: N ratio| emission rates of total N| ammonia and methane were lowest| whereas nitrous oxide values were intermediate. Substantial emission of nitrous oxide occurred with farmyard manure which also had the highest methane values and| consequently| by far the highest global warming potential. C: N ratio of manure was shown to be suitable to predict total N loss from manure during storage in all manure types whereas urine N proportion and manure pH were only of use with liquid manures. 5431,2001,3,3,Emissions of greenhouse gases and other airborne pollutants from charcoal making in Kenya and Brazil,Airborne emissions from charcoal-making kilns commonly used in Kenya and Brazil were measured during typical operating conditions. Emission factors were determined for carbon dioxide (COD| methane (CH4)| nitrous oxide (N2O)| carbon monoxide (CO)| total nonmethane hydrocarbons| nitrogen oxides (NO|) and total suspended particulates (TSP) along with charcoal production efficiency and charcoal and fuelwood carbon and energy contents. The conversion of wood carbon to charcoal carbon ranged from 37 to 69%| depending on kiln type. Emission factors| expressed as grams of pollutant per kilogram of charcoal produced| for the eight kilns ranged from 543 to 3027 for CO2| 32-62 for CH4| 143-373 for CO| 24-124 for total nonmethane organic compounds| 0.011-0.30 for N2O| 0.0054-0.13 for NOx| and 13-41 for TSP. On average| fuelwood carbon was approximately diverted as follows: 51 % to charcoal| 27% to CO2| and 13% to products of incomplete combustion (PIC). Due to the higher global warming potentials (GWPs) of PIC relative to CO2 on a carbon atom basis| such kilns can produce rather large net greenhouse gas emissions| even when the wood is harvested renewably. Based on published GWPs for CO2| CH4| and N2O only| we estimate that 0.77-1.63 kg C-CO2 (carbon as carbon dioxide equivalents) is emitted per kilogram of charcoal produced. We estimate that the total primary global warming commitment (GWC) of Kenyan and Brazilian charcoal-making kiln emissions is about 2.7 and 7.5 million tons (Mt) C-CO2| respectively. For comparison| the primary GWC from fossil fuel use in the United States is almost 1700 Mt C-CO2. 5408,2001,4,3,Emissions of greenhouse gases from the tropical hydroelectric reservoir of Petit Saut (French Guiana) compared with emissions from thermal alternatives,Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of CH4 and CO2| resulting from decomposition of flooded organic matter from the hydroelectric reservoir of Petit Saut in the tropical rain forest of French Guiana have been monitored since reservoir impoundment in January 1994. This data set along with complementary data taken from older reservoirs in forested regions of the southern Ivory Coast provides an estimate of long-term GHG emission trends from a tropical reservoir. The trends are used to calculate the contribution of this reservoir to global warming on a 100 year timescale| assumed to be consistent with the life cycle of the reservoir. Calculations are based on the concept of global warming potential (GWP). Natural emission of greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) from soils of the reservoir before impoundment is estimated through field measurements and literature data. Then net GHG emissions from the reservoir on a 100 hundred year timescale (30 million tons of equivalent CO2| with an uncertainty range of 7-54 Mt CO2eq) are compared with predicted emissions from thermal power plants of equivalent power (115 MW). The final comparison takes into account the actual energy production of the dam power station at only 50% of the installed capacity. Emission from this reservoir| whose power density is low (0.315 MW km(-2) flooded)| would be similar to emissions from a gas power plant (33 Mt CO2eq) producing the same energy amount and less than emissions from other thermal alternatives| among which the most polluting are coal plants. Such a result| however| strongly depends on the choice of the integration time. 5437,2001,3,4,Energy accounting and well-being - examining UK organic and conventional farming systems through a human energy perspective,This paper quantifies and compares the energy efficiencies of conventional and organic farming systems in the UK from a human energy perspective. To date| studies comparing these two systems have neglected rudimentary questions regarding the effort and energy expenditure of farmers| instead devoting attention to consumer health and selected environmental issues such as global warming and recent energy crises. The need to focus on the human energy problem is seen as fundamental in this paper as it concerns not just the balance of calorific expenditure and consumption but also the possible negative health affects associated with high levels of energy and effort expenditure. Assessment of human energy expenditures and effort| and their health effects is relatively under-developed; consequently this paper uses a pilot study to explore methodology on which future study and theory could be based. The method developed draws on three plausible models for assessing human energy and effort expenditure: the nutritional| physiological and ergonomic. The case study builds annual and daily profiles of energy and effort expenditure of two farmers using annual tabour profiles and task specific energy expenditure and intensity derived from physical measurements. Although the scope of the experiment is limited| making inferences about each system is difficult| the results reveal clear differences in the annual energy and effort expenditures of the two farmers. Over a typical year the organic farmer experiences far more physical stress. Despite being more efficient in terms of overall energy| the organic farm is less efficient in terms of human energy| and the net energetic returns combined with effort intensity bring into question the health implications of organic livelihoods both in the short and long term. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5613,2001,4,4,Energy and water balance studies of a snow cover during snowmelt period at a high arctic site,The predicted global warming is supposed to have an enhanced effect on the arctic regions. How this will influence the water| carbon dioxide and methane balances in the European arctic tundra is the objective of the EU-funded project "Understanding Land Surface Physical Processes in the Arctic" (LAPP)| to which where SINTEF is one of several contributors. The snow cover is one of the limiting factors for these exchange processes and knowledge of how it behaves and will behave under a different climate is important. Data collected for water and energy balance studies in an area close to Ny-Angstrom lesund at 79 degreesN at Svalbard are the basis of this study. Measurements during the ablation periods since 1992 show an average air temperature for the periods of 2.1 degreesC| an average incoming shorwave radiation of 230 W/m(2) and an average measured runoff intensity of 14 mm/day with a maximum of 68 mm/ day. Three models of different complexity are tested in order to simulate the water and energy balance of a snow cover on the arctic tundra. The three models are: a complex numerical model (CROCUS)| a simple energy balance model and a temperature index model. The simulations were carried out for the melt periods in 1992 and 1996 as these two periods represent very different meteorological conditions. The results of these simulations exposed weaknesses in all the models. The energy balance model lacks calculation of cold content in the snowpack. This influences both the outgoing longwave radiation and the timing of the melt. Due to the effect of compensating errors in the simulations| CROCUS performed better than the simple energy balance model but also this model has problems with the simulation of outgoing longwave radiation. The temperature index model does not perform well for snowmelt studies in regions were radiation is the main driving energy source for the melt. 5463,2001,3,4,Energy for the new millennium,The evolution of thinking about energy is discussed. When the authors began collaborating 20 years ago| energy was typically considered from a growth-oriented| supply-side perspective| with a focus on consumption trends and how to expand supplies to meet rising demand. They were deeply troubled by the environmental| security and equity implications of that approach. For instance| about two billion people lack access to affordable modern energy seriously limiting their opportunities for a better life. And energy is a significant contributor to environmental problems| including indoor air pollution| urban air pollution| acidification| and global warming. The authors saw the need to evolve a different perspective in which energy is provided in ways that help solve such serious problems. They argued that energy must become an instrument for advancing sustainable development-economically viable| need-oriented| self-reliant and environmentally sound development-and that the focus should be on the end uses of energy and the services that energy provides. Energy technological options that can help meet sustainable development goals are discussed. The necessity of developing and employing innovative technological solutions is stressed. The possibilities of technological leapfrogging that could enable developing countries to avoid repeating the mistakes of the industrialized countries is illustrated with a discussion of ethanol in Brazil. The role foreign direct investment might play in bringing advanced technologies to developing countries is highlighted. Near-and long-term strategies for rural energy are discussed. Finally| policy issues are considered for evolving the energy system so that it will be consistent with and supportive of sustainable development. 5416,2001,4,3,Ensemble simulation of twenty-first century climate changes: Business-as-usual versus CO2 stabilization,Natural variability of the climate system imposes a large uncertainty on future climate change signals simulated by a single integration of any coupled ocean-atmosphere model. This is especially true for regional precipitation changes. Here| these uncertainties are reduced by using results from two ensembles of five integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model forced by projected future greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol changes. Under a business-as-usual scenario| the simulations show a global warming of similar to1.9 degreesC over the. twenty-first century (continuing the trend observed since the late 1970s)| accompanied by a similar to3% increase in global precipitation. Stabilizing the CO2 level at 550 ppm reduces the warming only moderately (by similar to0.4 degreesC in 2100). The patterns of seasonal-mean temperature and precipitation change in the two cases are highly correlated (r approximate to 0.99 for temperature and r approximate to 0.93 for precipitation). Over the midlatitude North Atlantic Ocean| the model produces a moderate surface cooling (1 degrees -2 degreesC| mostly in winter) over the twenty-first century. This cooling is accompanied by changes in atmospheric lapse rates over the region (i.e.| larger warming in the free troposphere than at the surface)| which stabilizes the surface ocean. The resultant reduction in local oceanic convection contributes to a 20% slowdown in the thermohaline circulation. 5538,2001,2,3,ENSO-Monsoon relationships in a greenhouse warming scenario,Recent studies based on observed climatic data indicate: weakening of the relationship between EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall| possibly due to global warming. Transient climate change simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM (ECHAM4/OPYC3) project a change towards enhanced ENSO activities in the tropical Pacific| as well as increase in mean monsoon rainfall and variability over India. However| the interannual correlations between the mio are strong throughout the 240 year simulation. Analysis of monsoon viz-a-viz ENSO in the model simulations suggest a diminished impact of warm ENSO (El Nino) events on monsoon| while the impact of cold ENSO (La Nina) events remains unchanged in the scenario. Anomalous warming over the Eurasian landmass as well as enhanced moisture conditions over the Indian monsoon region in the global warming scenario have possibly contributed to the weakening of the impact of warm ENSO) events on monsoon. 5622,2001,3,3,Environmental accounting - a decision support tool in WWTP operation and management,The various emissions to water| air and soil from the municipal wastewater treatment plant of Avedore Wastewater Service Company are accounted for and quantified in terms of the environmental impacts to which they contribute: global warming| acidification| eutrophication| space demand for controlled deposition of residues| as well as persistent toxicity| human toxicity and eco-toxicity. The impacts are expressed on the same scale| namely as fraction of the total per capita loads in a national scenario 1990| also called the person equivalent or PE1990. This provides a compact and informative overview of the environmental impacts and allows for a holistic prioritisation in the operation and management of the plant. The accounting shows that the resulting emissions per person in the catchment area of the plant correspond to 0.5-5.0% of the average Danish PE1990 for the impacts in question. 5542,2001,3,3,Environmental aspects of electricity generation from a nanocrystalline dye sensitized solar cell system,A Life Cycle Assessment| LCA| of a nanocrystalline dye sensitized solar cell (ncDSC) system has been performed| according to the ISO14040 standard. In brief| LCA is a tool to analyse the total environmental impact of a product or system from cradle to grave. Six different weighing methods were used to rank and select the significant environmental aspects to study further. The most significant environmental aspects according to the weighing methods are emission of sulphur dioxide and carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide emission was selected as the environmental indicator depending on the growing attention on the global warming effect. In an environmental comparison of electricity generation from a ncDSC system and a natural gas/combined cycle power plant| the gas power plant would result in 450 g CO2/kWh and the ncDSC system in between 19-47 g CO2/kWh. The latter can be compared with 42 g CO2/kWh| according to van Brummelen et al. "Life Cycle Assessment of Roof Integrated Solar Cell Systems| (Report: Department of Science| Technology and Society| Utrecht University| The Netherlands| 1994)" for another thin film solar eel system made of amorphous silicon. The most significant activity/component contributing to environmental impact over the Life cycle of the ncDSC system is the process energy for producing the solar cell module. Secondly comes the components; glass substrate| frame and junction box. The main improvement from an environmental point of view of the current technology would be an increase in the conversion efficiency from solar radiation to electricity generation and still use low energy demanding production technologies. Also the amount of material in the solar cell system should be minimised and designed to maximise recycling. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5585,2001,3,3,Environmental challenges of animal agriculture and the role and task of animal nutrition in environmental protection - Review,Animals are one of the important memberships of the food chain. The low-efficiency rule of nutrient transfer from one member to the next in the food chain determines the low efficiency of animal agriculture for human food. On the average| about 20% feed proteins and 15% feed energy can be converted into edible nutrients for humans. The rest proportion of feed nutrients is exposed to the environment. Environmental pollution| therefore| is inevitable as animal agriculture grows intensively and extensively. The over-loading of the environment by nutrients such as nitrogen| phosphorus from animal manure results in soil and water spoilage. The emission of gases like CH2| CO2| SO2| NO| NO2 by animals are one of the contributors for the acidification of the environment and global warming. The inefficient utilization of natural resources and the probable unsafety of animal products to human health are also a critical environmental issue. Improving the conversion efficiency of nutrients in the food chain is the fundamental strategy for solving environmental issues. Specifically in animal agriculture| the strategy includes the improvements of animal genotypes| nutritional and feeding management| animal health| housing systems and waste disposal programs. Animal nutrition science plays a unique and irreplaceable role in the control of nutrient input and output in either products or wastes. Several nutritional methods are proved to be effective in alleviating environmental pollution| A lot of nutritional issues| however| remain to be further researched for the science of animal nutrition to be a strong helper far sustainability of animal agriculture. 5553,2001,5,4,Environmental change and rates of evolution: the phylogeographic pattern within the hartebeest complex as related to climatic variation,Global climate fluctuated considerably throughout the Pliocene-Pleistocene period| influencing the evolutionary history of a wide array of species. Using the phylogeographic patterns within the hartebeest (Alcelaphus buselaphus (Pallas| 1766)) complex| we evaluated the evolutionary consequences of such environmental change for a typical large mammal ranging on the African savannah. Our results| as generated from two mitochondrial DNA markers (the D-loop and cytochrome b)| suggest an origin of the hartebeest in eastern Africa from where the species has colonized other parts of the continent. Phylogenetic analyses revealed an early diversification into southern and northern hartebeest lineages| an event that may be related to the formation of the Rift Valley lakes. The northern lineage has further diverged into eastern and western lineages| most probably as a result of the expanding central African rainforest belt and subsequent contraction of savannah habitats during a period of global warming. The diversification events appear to have coincided with major climatic changes and are highly correlated in time. These observations strongly suggest that large-scale climatic fluctuations have been a major determinant for the species' evolutionary history and that hartebeest evolution has mainly taken place in isolated yet environmentally favourable refugia during periods of global warming. Indications of sudden population expansion for two putative ancestral hartebeest populations provide further support for a refugia-based explanation of the diversification events. Reciprocal monophyly between southern and northern lineages may suggest that reproductive barriers exist and that the hartebeest complex comprises two different species. 5532,2001,3,4,Environmentally friendly wafer production: NF3 remote microwave plasma for chamber cleaning,For NF3 remote microwave plasma chamber cleaning| compared with CF4 cleaning processes| a reduction of emission of gases relevant to global warming is observed. At the same time a reduction of operating costs for the abatement is possible. The presented data show a very high destruction and removal efficiency for NF3 and its major decomposition product F-2 in an ESCAPE abatement system. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. 5510,2001,3,3,Equations of state for fluorinated ether refrigerants| pentafluoroethyl methyl ether and heptafluoropropyl methyl ether,Thermodynamic properties of two fluorinated ethers| that meet the criteria of the potential new-generation refrigerants with considerably low global warming potential (GWP) and the zero ozone depletion potential (ODP)| are studied in the present paper. The recommended candidates are pentafluoroethyl methyl ether| CF3CF2OCH3 (245cbE beta gamma)| and heptafluoropropyl methyl ether| CF3CF2CF2OCH3 (347sE gamma delta)| proposed as alternative refrigerants to replace 1|2-dichloro-1|1|2|2-tetrafluoroethane| CClF2CClF2 (R-114) and trichlorofluoromethane| CCl3F (R-11)| respectively. The present paper summarizes the current thermodynamic property studies of the above fluorinated ethers| and their thermodynamic property modeling will be presented. The formulations are developed exclusively on the basis of the PVT property data| both in the single phase and at the saturation states. Using estimated ideal gas heat capacity data| derived properties including heat capacities and speeds of sound are calculated in a wide range of temperature and pressure| and their behaviors show the typical and physically sound characteristics of pure fluid. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5518,2001,3,4,Estimating CO2 abatement and sequestration potentials for Chile,The need for the Chilean government to adopt a position vis-a-vis negotiations at the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change prompts a preliminary analysis in this paper of the results of reductions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and their costs For Chile. Basically| two sectors offer possibilities to contribute to the control of CO2 emissions. In the energy sector| CO2 emissions can be abated by either adopting more efficient technologies or switching fuels. In the non-energy sector| CO2 emissions can be sequestered from the atmosphere by afforestation| reforestation and forest management. This work represent the first effort in Chile to estimate the costs of CO2 abatement and sequestration for Chile using a bottom-up approach for the year 2010| which in a global warming context is a short/medium term scenario. In the energy sector| the end and intermediate uses of energy are considered for the transportation| manufacturing and electricity sectors. In the non-energy sector| sequestration costs incurred in forestation on marginal land available in each administrative region of Chile are estimated. Our preliminary results indicate that Chile has a large potential to become a net remover of GHG emissions| with a 176% of CO2 equivalent reduction attainable by 2010 under the upper-bound scenario. A 7% CO2 abatement can be achieved at apparently no cost to society with increased efficiency in the use of energy| and a 114% abatement can be achieved at moderate costs| i.e.| less than 11 US$/ton CO2 eq. The major reduction is obtainable through CO2 sequestration by forests. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 3024,2001,2,3,Estimating the thickness of the free gas zone beneath Hydrate Ridge| Oregon continental margin| from seismic velocities and attenuation,Recent Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) results in the Oregon accretionary prism and on the Blake Ridge indicate that the zone containing free gas beneath the hydrate-bearing near-surface sediments is considerably thicker than previously thought. In this paper| we present results from travel time inversion of refracted seismic waves that show very low (<1.85 km/s) velocities extending for 500-600 m beneath the base of the gas hydrate stability zone in Hydrate Ridge on the Oregon continental margin near ODP site 892. The low-velocity near-surface layer extends across Hydrate Ridge and beneath the adjacent continental slope to the east. Because Pliocene sediments are exposed at the crest of Hydrate Ridge in an erosional setting| we suggest that these low velocities indicate the extent of a zone of dispersed free gas rather than recent sedimentation. Strong frequency-dependent attenuation of amplitudes is observed for P waves crossing this zone. Amplitude spectra| referenced to spectra for similar accretionary complex paths that do not cross the interpreted gassy layer| indicate a very low P wave quality factor (Q(P)) within this zone| with Q(P)Although the idea of injecting gases to improve oil recovery has been known for over three-quarters of the past century| it appears to be taking on a new meaning as we step into the new millennium. The oil price scenario remains consistently loyal to its roller-coaster past; the long awaited jump in the natural gas price has become a reality; the oil industry has made new strides in horizontal drilling with significant cost reductions; and the world's attention is focused on the industrialized nations to lead the way to control global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These evolving global issues combined with the ever-declining reserves of conventional crude oils appear to bring a new optimism to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) by gas injection. Added to this optimism are the well-accepted facts that waterflood recovery from conventional oil reservoirs rarely exceed 40% of the original oil in place (OOIP); that most waterfloods are maturing or close to their economic limits; and that chemically enhanced waterfloods appear to have become practically extinct in spite of their conceptual soundness. Therefore| gas-based EOR processes using horizontal wells appear to be the solitary hope for continual:profitable production from the large remaining reserves of conventional oil in Canada| the United States and the rest of the world. In what follows| we will briefly discuss-but not review the conceptual basis for gas injection EOR processes and what| we| have conveniently overlooked in it| the historical developments| process design considerations| problem ar eas| and the future direction and potential of this time-tested technology.
5390,2001,2,4,Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming,To date| all altered patterns of seasonal interactions observed in insects| birds| amphibians| and plants associated with global warming during the latter half of the 20th century are explicable as variable expressions of plastic phenotypes. Over the last 30 years| the genetically controlled photoperiodic response of the pitcher-plant mosquito| Wyeomyia smithii| has shifted toward shorter| more southern daylengths as growing seasons have become longer. This shift is detectable over a time interval as short as 5 years. Faster evolutionary response has occurred in northern populations where selection is stronger and genetic variation is greater than in southern populations. W. smithii represents an example of actual genetic differentiation of a seasonality trait that is consistent with an adaptive evolutionary response to recent global warming. 5557,2001,2,4,Geographic variation in growth responses in Phragmites australis,Phragmites australis is a cosmopolitan wetlands species occurring in a wide range of climatic habitats| It can be assumed that adaptations to climate have evolved to enable the synchronization of growth with the seasonality of the environment. To study these adaptations| European P. australis was collected in different geographic regions| and grown in common environments situated in the Czech Republic| Denmark and The Netherlands. Phragmites australis originating from higher latitudes showed higher relative length growth rates (RLGR)| and flowered earlier in time than that from lower latitudes. Plants from Spain even continued growth until the first autumn frosts. When grown in the different common environments| population differences were found in RLGR| but no general trend was apparent. On average| shoots started to grow 2 weeks earlier in The Netherlands than in Denmark and 6 weeks earlier than in the Czech Republic. These differences could be largely related to lower spring temperatures in the latter two countries. When shoot-growth was plotted against the temperature sum| no differences in RLGR between Denmark and The Netherlands were apparent| whereas shoot-growth was slower in the Czech Republic. Results from a greenhouse experiment showed that seedlings from southern populations formed taller but fewer shoots and thicker but shorter rhizomes than those from northern populations| irrespective of total dry weight. They also allocated more dry matter to stems at the expense of leaves| whereas no differences in allocation to below-ground plant parts were found. It was concluded that populations of P. australis showed clinal variation in (i) the length of the growing season| (ii) time of flowering| and (iii) morphology and biomass allocation. These results are discussed with respect to the possible effects of global warming on population functioning. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5423,2001,5,4,Geology and geomorphology of the European Alps and the Southern Alps of New Zealand - A comparison,The European Alps (Alps) and Southern Alps of New Zealand (Southern Alps) are both high mountain ranges formed by the collision of tectonic plates. The Alps resulted from collision of the African and European Plates| which produced complex lithological and structural patterns associated with the development of a series of overthrusted nappes. In contrast| the plate margin deformation that created the Southern Alps produced a relatively simple structural and lithological pattern dominated by a single right lateral oblique slip fault zone known as the Alpine Fault. Strong contrasts are also apparent in the contemporary rates of landscape development. The Alps currently experience modest rates of uplift and denudation because deformation along the plate boundary has slowed. High rates of compressional strain along the Alpine Fault in New Zealand result in very high rates of uplift. These processes and the position of the mountain range across the prevailing atmospheric westerly circulation system result in exceptionally high rates of denudation. Although there are strong contrasts in the lithology and structure of the Alps and Southern Alps| both experienced the growth and decay of expanded valley and piedmont glaciers during the Quaternary. The impact of multiple Quaternary ice advances has left a strong imprint on the landscapes. Both mountain ranges have particularly well-developed| over-deepened troughs and widespread glacial sediments and landforms| which heavily influence modern geomorphic processes and land use. Today numerous glaciers in both regions show strong reactions to global warming since the end of the Little Ice Age. 5385,2001,2,4,Geostatistical regional trend detection in river flow data,Many studies have identified global warming and climate change as some of the biggest challenges facing Canada. In this paper| the regional temporal trend in river flows is investigated using a space-time model. Though the primary focus is the time component| the spatial relationship among monitoring stations in a region is used to develop a space-time model that is composed of a random time trend as a function of space| and a random error term as a function of both time and space. The estimate of regional time trend is a linear combination of the differenced observations that minimizes the variance of estimated errors. Data from 248 river stations in the Reference Hydrometric Basin Network (RHBN) established by Environment Canada is analysed. These hydrological monitoring stations are grouped into ten non-overlapping homogeneous regions covering all of Canada. An estimate of trend| along with its variance| is calculated for each region. Some significant trends are found for the annual mean| maximum and minimum flows| as well as for the mean monthly flows for July and December| and are consistent with those detected in other Canadian studies. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley Sons| Ltd. 2978,2001,2,4,Getting warmer: Effect of global climate change on distribution of rodents in Texas,Historically| distributions of plants and animals have shifted with changes in regional and global temperatures. Current predictions from general circulation models show changes in level and variation in temperature and rainfall over the next several decades. The magnitude and direction of such changes vary regionally. Studies are beginning to show that these changes will impact distribution of species of plants and animals.| and| concomitantly| species composition of plant and animal communities. We used geographic information systems| vegetation models. and general circulation models to predict the impact of global climate change (GCC) on the distribution of vegetation at a regional scale| the state of Texas. Then we used habitat preferences for species of rodents in the state to predict how GCC would impact their geographic range and species richness. Our determination of suitable habitats for species of rodents included an average of 98% of capture points| and we found that suitable habitat averaged 62% of the geographic range of species. Size of habitat-corrected range increased an average of 2- to 3-fold under GCC| indicating that rodents were more adaptable to changes in vegetation than were other mammals we studied (e.g.| lagomorphs and insectivores)| whose range decreased| but similar to Chiroptera. whose ranges also increased. Geographic ranges shifted an average of 54% under a warmer| wetter climate and 61% under a warmer| drier climate| resulting in inclusion of an average of 60% new vegetation associations in the ranges under the former scenario and 64% under the latter scenario. The impact of GCC on rodents in Texas was greatest under the warmer| drier climatic scenario. Two species| Oryzomys cousei and Microtus mexicanus| were predicted to go extinct because their suitable habitats did not occur under GCC. These results demonstrated that the type of climate change (warmer| drier or warmer| wetter) and its severity would be important. GCC was predicted to have the greatest impact on rodent distributions in eastern Texas under a scenario of a warmer and wetter climate because forests expanded| whereas the impact would be greatest in western and southern Texas if climate becomes warmer and drier because desert and shrub habitats expanded. Life-history variables (e.g.| habitat type or diet) were correlated with changes in size of range| location| or habitat composition| and reflected broad changes in the relative distribution of vegetation types. Granivores and herbivores used fewer new habitat associations that entered Texas after GCC than did omnivores or insectivores| as did terrestrial rodents compared with fossorial or arboreal rodents. 5597,2001,2,4,Glacial recession in Sorkappland and central Nordenskioldland| Spitsbergen| Svalbard| during the 20th century,Major deglaciation on Spitsbergen has occurred as a result of climate warming since the beginning of the 20th century following the end of the Little Ice Age. The areal extent of glaciers has decreased by ca. 18% in Sorkappland between 1936 and 1991| and by ca. 44% in the Lindstromfjellet-Haberget-Habergnuten ridge region| a mountainous massif of Nordenskioldland| between 1936 and 1995. Recession of glaciers has been accompanied by a decrease in thickness up to 50 m for almost all glaciers since 1936. The equilibrium-line altitude has risen by 100 to 200 m in Sorkappland and by at least 150 m in central Nordenskioldland. Deglaciation in central Nordenskioldland is more than twice that in Sorkappland during the 20th century| which suggests that central Spitsbergen is more sensitive to global warming than is southern Spitsbergen. Spitsbergen's proximity to maritime air masses is probably a more important control for rate of glacial recession than is elevation above sea level or high latitude. 5395,2001,4,4,Glaciers and climate change: Perspectives from oral tradition,In northwestern North America| glaciers figure prominently in both indigenous oral traditions and narratives of geophysical sciences. These perspectives intersect in discussions about global warming| predicted to be extreme at Arctic and Subarctic latitudes and an area of concern for both local people and scientists. Indigenous people in northwestern North America have experienced climate variability associated with the latter phases of the Little Ice Age (approximately 1550-1850). This paper draws on oral traditions passed down from that period| some recorded between 1900 and the early 1950s in coastal Alaska Tlingit communities and others recorded more recently with elders from Yukon First Nations. The narratives concern human travel to the Gulf of Alaska foreshore at the end of the Little Ice Age from the Copper River| from the Alaska panhandle| and from the upper Alsek-Tatshenshini drainage| as well as observations about glacier advances| retreats| and surges. The paper addresses two large policy debates. One concerns the incorporation of local knowledge into scientific research. The second addresses the way in which oral tradition contributes another variety of historical understanding in areas of the world where written documents are relatively recent. Academic debates| whether in science or in history| too often evaluate local expertise as data or evidence| rather than as knowledge or theory that might contribute different perspectives to academic questions. 5451,2001,4,4,Glaciers that speak in tongues and other tales of global warming,This article contains a study of the cumulative global warming since the end of the Little Ice Age in the mid-1800s. It includes the present-day pattern of global ocean circulation and its effect on climate.
3030,2001,5,4,Global climate change and the origin of modern benthic communities in Antarctica,Marine benthic communities living in shallow-water habitats (< 100 m depth) in Antarctica possess characteristics reminiscent of Paleozoic marine communities and modern deep-sea communities. The absence of crabs and sharks| the limited diversity of teleosts and skates| the dominance of slow-moving invertebrates at higher trophic levels| and the occurrence of dense ophiuroid and crinoid populations indicate that skeleton-breaking predation is limited in Antarctica today| as it was worldwide during the Paleozoic and as it is in the deep sea today. The community structure of the antarctic benthos has its evolutionary roots in the Eocene. Data from fossil assemblages at Seymour Island| Antarctic Peninsula suggest that shallow-water communities were similar to communities at lower latitudes until they were affected by global cooling| which accelerated in the late Eocene to early Oligocene. That long-term cooling trend ultimately resulted in the polar climate and peculiar community structure found in Antarctica today. Declining temperatures beginning late In the Eocene are associated with the disappearance of crabs| sharks| and most teleosts. The sudden drop in predation pressure allowed dense ophiuroid and crinoid populations to appear and flourish. These late Eocene echinoderm populations exhibit low frequencies of sublethal damage (regenerating arms)| demonstrating that there was little or no predation from skeleton-breaking fish and decapods. Current scenarios of global climate change include predictions of increased upwelling and consequent cooling in temperate and subtropical upwelling zones. Limited ecological evidence suggests that such cooling could disrupt trophic relationships and favor retrograde community structures in those local areas. 5562,2001,5,4,Global dinoflagellate event associated with the late Paleocene thermal maximum,The late Paleocene thermal maximum| or LPTM (ca. 55 Ma)| represents a geologically brief time interval (similar to 220 k.y.) characterized by profound global warming and associated environmental change. The LPTM is marked by a prominent negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) interpreted to reflect a massive and abrupt input of C-12-enriched carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir| possibly as a result of catastrophic gas-hydrate release| on time scales equivalent to present-day rates of anthropogenic carbon input. The LPTM corresponds to important changes in the global distribution of biota| including mass extinction of marine benthic organisms| The dinoflagellate cyst record indicates that surfaced-dwelling marine plankton in marginal seas also underwent significant perturbations during the LPTM. We report on the dramatic response of representatives of the genus Apectodinium from two upper Paleocene-lower Eocene sections in the Southern (New Zealand) and Northern (Austria) Hemispheres| where the dinoflagellate records are directly correlated with the CIE| benthic foraminifera extinction event| and calcareous nannofossil zonation. The results indicate that the inception of Apectodinium-dominated assemblages appears to be synchronous on a global scale| and that the event is precisely coincident with the beginning of the LPTM. Apectodinium markedly declined in abundance near the end of the LPTM. This Apectodinium event may be associated with (1) exceptionally high global sea-surface temperatures and/or (2) a significant increase in marginal-marine surface-water productivity| Such a globally synchronous acme of dinoflagellate cysts is unprecedented within the dinoflagellate cyst fossil record. 5603,2001,2,4,Global direct radiative forcing due to multicomponent anthropogenic and natural aerosols,Global simulations of the composition of and direct forcing due to aerosols containing natural and/or anthropogenic sulfate| nitrate| chloride| carbonate| ammonium| sodium| calcium| magnesium| potassium| black carbon| organic matter| silica| ferrous oxide| and aluminum oxide were carried out. Chloride and natural sulfate were found to be the most important natural aerosol constituents in the atmosphere in terms of solar plus thermal-infrared forcing. Sea spray was the most important natural aerosol type| indicating that it should be accounted for in weather and climate calculations. Ammonium was found to have a positive direct forcing| since it reduces water uptake in sulfate-containing solutions; thus| anthropogenic ammonium contributes to global warming. The magnitudes of ammonium and nitrate forcing were smaller than those of chloride or sulfate forcing. When organics were divided into three groups with different assumed UV absorption characteristics| total aerosol direct forcing at the tropopause increased by about +0.03 to +0.05 W m(-2) (direct forcing by organics remained negative)| suggesting that W absorption by organics is a nontrivial component of the global energy balance. Gypsum [CaSO4-2H(2)O]| sal ammoniac [NH4Cl]| halite [NaCl]| halite| and nitrum [KNO3] were estimated to be the most common sulfate-| ammonium-| sodium-| chloride-| and nitrate-containing solid-phase aerosol constituents| respectively| in the global atmosphere. Solid formation in aerosols was found to increase total-aerosol direct forcing by +0.03 to +0.05 W m(-2). Spatial and vertical forcing estimates| sensitivities of forcing to relative humidity and concentration| and estimates of global aerosol liquid water content are given. Modeled aerosol optical properties are compared with satellite and field measurements. 5529,2001,2,4,Global warming and body mass decline in Israeli passerine birds,Global warming may affect the physiology| distributions| phenology and adaptations of plants and animals. In Israel| minimum summer temperatures increased by an average of 0.26 degreesC per decade during the second half of the 20th century. Bergmann's rule predicts that| in warm-blooded animals| races from warm regions are smaller than races from cold regions. Numerous studies have reported general correlations between body mass in fossil animals and independently established palaeoclimatic changes from various parts of the world in accordance with this rule. Using museum specimens| I tested the prediction that the body mass and tarsus length of five resident passerine species in Israel declined between 1950 and 1999. The body mass of four species (the graceful warbler Prinia gracilis| the house sparrow Passer domesticus| the yellow-vented bulbul Pycnonotus xanthopygos and the Sardinian warbler Sylvia melanocephala| but not of the crested lark Galerida cristata) declined significantly during this period. Tarsus length also declined significantly during this period for two species (the graceful warbler and the house sparrow). Body condition (body mass-to-tarsus length ratio) decreased in the Sardinian warbler| the yellow-vented bulbul and the crested lark. It is suggested that the above declines in body mass and tarsus length are due to global warming and also in accordance with Bergmann's rule. The above explanation does not exclude the possibility that other factors| such as a decrease in food availability| contributed to the decline in body mass. These declines may have serious implications for community structure and competition among bird species and may affect the survival of small passerines. 5634,2001,4,5,Global warming and its astro-causes,Looks at the problem of global warming from the viewpoint of wholeness. That is| the problem of global warming will be looked at in a comprehensive study considering several aspects of the cosmos| the Earth| and the phenomenon of life. With such a broad understanding in mind| first analyzes both the disadvantageous and advantageous aspects of the current global warming. Second| compares three typical environmental conditions in which humans have lived. Third| employing the concept of global warming| looks at the myth of how ancient civilizations appeared and disappeared Then| considering our Earth system as an open system travelling in the universe| provides an explanation for the current global warming and for global climate changes. It is expected that the explanation presented can be applied to produce long-term predictions for climate changes.
5638,2001,3,2,Global warming and transport in Brazil - ethanol alternative,This paper deals with the risk of global warming as intensified by the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the transport sector| particularly in gasoline-powered vehicles in Brazil. Car ownership and use are increasing rapidly partly because of very poor public transport quality| which| in turn| is causing higher emission levels Of CO2. In this connection| the use of ethanol in Brazil for the transport sector may prove to be an important alternative| furthering the efforts to stabilise the actual level of gases in the atmosphere. The energy derived from biomass| and in this case| from a renewable| 'clean' source| i.e.| from sugar-cane| has the unquestionable advantage of permitting the almost complete reabsorption of CO2 emitted through the combustion of fuel alcohol. This closed cycle allows| in principle| the increase of the energy supply| essential for economic development| with fewer hazards to the environment. 5407,2001,2,3,Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios,A coupled physical-biogeochemical climate model that includes a dynamic global vegetation model and a representation of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is driven by the nonintervention emission scenarios recently developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Atmospheric CO2| carbon sinks| radiative forcing by greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols| changes in the fields of surface-air temperature| precipitation| cloud cover| ocean thermal expansion| and vegetation structure are projected. Up to 2100| atmospheric CO2 increases to 540 ppm for the lowest and to 960 ppm for the highest emission scenario analyzed. Sensitivity analyses suggest an uncertainty in these projections of -10 to +30% for a given emission scenario. Radiative forcing is estimated to increase between 3 and 8 W m(-2) between now and 2100. Simulated warmer conditions in North America and Eurasia affect ecosystem structure: boreal trees expand poleward in high latitudes and are partly replaced by temperate trees and grasses at lower latitudes. The consequences for terrestrial carbon storage depend on the assumed sensitivity of climate to radiative forcing| the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature| and the rate of increase in radiative forcing by both CO2 and other GHGs. In the most extreme cases| the terrestrial biosphere becomes a source of carbon during the second half of the century. High GHG emissions and high contributions of non-CO2 agents to radiative forcing favor a transient terrestrial carbon source by enhancing warning and the associated release of soil carbon. 5649,2001,2,3,Global warming potentials modified for surface radiative forcing for use in surface energy balance models,The radiative impact of greenhouse gases in warming the Earth varies significantly| depending on whether one considers the forcing at the tropopause or at the surface. Compared to the former| the surface forcing for some greenhouse gases is reduced by the interference of water vapour. Hence| we calculate alternative surface global warming potentials (SGWPs) that are derived from the surface forcing radiation of greenhouse gases for potential use in surface radiative energy balance models (SREBMs). For gases with a large water vapour overlap| the SGWPs are typically 30% smaller than current GWPs; for gases with relatively little overlap| the SGWPs arc larger by more than 33%. These results may be used in conjunction with SREBMs as an additional means of calculating climate change| and may lead to an altered emissions budget compared to that outlined by the current Kyoto agreement. (C) 2001 Royal Meteorological Society 5477,2001,2,3,Global warming signature in observed winter precipitation in Northwestern Europe?,For 40 precipitation series in Northwestern Europe covering the period 1900-1990| the question whether variability of winter (October to March) precipitation on all time scales longer than years can be explained by changes in circulation is investigated. This is done| for each time series| by applying a linear statistical method (multi-regression) linking the winter precipitation to the coefficients of the leading 5 principal components (PCs) of the winter mean mean sea level pressure. Having determined the coefficients| the corresponding hindcasted time series is obtained by applying the model. The interannual variability of winter precipitation is linked to circulation| This has been quantified by the multiple-correlation coefficient between the time series of observed and hindcasted values. Independence between these 2 time series is required for the validation to be meaningful. This is obtained by applying a cross-validation technique. The multiple-correlation coefficient is the largest in the Western Norway region. A comparison is also made between the performance of this standard model and a 'reduced' model based on the link between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index only. This comparison shows that the performance is significantly larger using 5 PCs than using I PC (the NAO)| In contrast| the lowest frequencies are not related to changes in the circulation. This shows up as a systematic positive trend in the difference between the observed and hindcasted precipitation for the majority of series. A Monte Carlo test reveals that this result is unlikely to have occurred by chance. This is interpreted as a change in the physics of the climate system| due to enhanced greenhouse forcing| to changes in sea surface temperatures in connection with some very low frequency mode| or to changes in land use enhancing the hydrological cycle. 5419,2001,4,3,Greenhouse carbon balance of wetlands: methane emission versus carbon sequestration,Carbon fixation under wetland anaerobic soil conditions provides unique conditions for longterm storage of carbon into histosols. However. this carbon sequestration process is intimately linked to methane emission from wetlands. The potential contribution of this emitted methane to the greenhouse effect can be mitigated by the removal of atmospheric CO2 and storage into peat. The balance of CH4 and CO2 exchange can provide an index of a wetland's greenhouse gas (carbon) contribution to the atmosphere. Here. we relate the atmospheric global warming potential of methane (GWP(M)) with annual methane emission carbon dioxide exchange ratio of wetlands ranging from the boreal zone to the near-subtropics| This relationship permits one to determine the greenhouse carbon balance of wetlands by their contribution to or attenuation of the greenhouse effect via CH4 emission or CO2 sink| respectively| We report annual measurements of the relationship between methane emission and net carbon fixation in three wetland ecosystems. The ratio of methane released to annual net carbon fixed varies from 0.05 to 0.20 on a molar basis. Although these wetlands function as a sink for CO2| the 21.8-fold greater infrared absorptivity of CH4 relative to CO2 (GWP(M)) over a relatively short time horizon (20 years) would indicate that the release of methane still contributes to the overall greenhouse effect| As GWP(M) decreases over longer time horizons ( 100 years)| our analyses suggest that the subtropical and temperate wetlands attenuate global warming. and northern wetlands may be perched on the "greenhouse compensation" point. Considering a 500-year time horizon| these wetlands can be regarded as sinks for greenhouse gas warming potential| and thus attenuate the greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. 5577,2001,3,3,Greenhouse gas emissions during cattle feedlot manure composting,The emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) during feedlot manure composting reduces the agronomic value of the final compost and increases the greenhouse effect. A study was conducted to determine whether GHG emissions are affected by composting method. Feedlot cattle manure was composted with two aeration methods-passive (no turning) and active (turned six times). Carbon lost in the forms of CO2 and CH4 was 73.8 and 6.3 kg C Mg-1 manure for the passive aeration treatment and 168.0 and 8.1 kg C Mg-1 manure for the active treatment. The N loss in the form of N2O was 0.11 and 0.19 kg N Mg-1 manure for the passive and active treatments. Fuel consumption to turn and maintain the windrow added a further 4.4 kg C Mg-1 manure for the active aeration treatment. Since CH4 and N2O are 21 and 310 times more harmful than CO2 in their global warming effect| the total GHG emission expressed as CO2-C equivalent was 240.2 and 401.4 kg C Mg-1 manure for passive and active aeration. The Lower emission associated with the passive treatment was mainly due to the incomplete decomposition of manure and a lower gas diffusion rate. In addition| turning affected N transformation and transport in the windrow profile| which contributed to higher N2O emissions for the active aeration treatment. Gas diffusion is an important factor controlling GHG emissions. Higher GHG concentrations in compost windrows do not necessarily mean higher production or emission rates. 5578,2001,2,4,Greenhouse gases in non-oxygenated and artificially oxygenated eutrophied lakes during winter stratification,Concentrations of dissolved methane (CH(4))| carbon dioxide (CO(2))| and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) were measured in the water columns of nonoxygenated and artificially oxygenated| ice-covered eutrophied lakes in the mid-boreal zone in Finland during late winter 1997 and 1999. Sampling was conducted during winter stratification| the critical period for oxygen (O(2)) deficiency in seasonally ice-covered| thermally stratified lakes. Oxygen concentrations were maintained at least at a moderate level throughout the oxygenated water columns| whereas the nonoxygenated columns suffered anoxic hypolimnia. The mean concentrations of dissolved CH(4) exceeding the atmospheric equilibrium were greater in the non-oxygenated water columns (20.6-154 muM) than in the oxygenated ones (0.01-1.41 muM) In contrast| the mean excess CO(2) concentrations varied less between the non-oxygenated and oxygenated sites (0.28-0.47 and 0.25-0.31 mM| respectively). Oxygenated water columns had greater mean excess concentrations of N(2)O (0.018-0.032 muM) than the non-oxygenated ones (0.005-0.024 muM). If the accumulated greenhouse gas stores in the water columns during winter are assumed to be released to the atmosphere during the spring overturn| the global warming potentials (GWP| time horizon 100 yr) of these potential emissions at the non-oxygenated| eutrophic study sites ranged from 177 to 654 g CO(2) equivalent (CO(2-e)) m(-2) compared with 144 to 173 g CO(2-e) m(-2) at the oxygenated sites. The increase in the accumulation of CHI was the main reason for the higher GWP of the non-oxygenated sites. Anthropogenic eutrophication of lake ecosystems can generate increased CHI emissions due to associated O(2) depletion of their sediment and water column. 5520,2001,4,4,Ground surface temperature history at a single site in southern Portugal reconstructed from borehole temperatures,Reliable reconstruction of ground surface temperature (GST) history from borehole temperatures can often be biased by convective heat transport| unrecognized thermal conductivity variations| topography and vegetation changes near borehole locations. To a great extent| all these factors are negligible in the case of a 200-m-deep borehole located near the town of Evora| in southern Portugal. This allows confidence in the interpretation of the borehole temperature versus depth (T-z) profile in terms of the GST changes during the last 150-200 years. To obtain estimates of the GST history| the functional space inversion method was used| which allows incorporation of uncertainties in the data as a priori standard deviations. The method yielded a GST history that indicates warming of about 1 K since the second half of the last century to the middle of the 1990s| with an increase in the last 10-15 years. The results agree with the surface air temperatures (SAT) recorded at the Lisbon meteorological station since 1856| which display a warming trend with an amplitude of about 1 K for the same period. The reduced temperature of the studied T-z profile was used to extend the observed SAT series to times before the instrumental period by estimating the long-term pre-observational mean (POM). The shape of the reduced temperature curve is best fit by POM values that are a few 10ths of a degree Celsius higher than 15.6 degreesC| which is the mean of the SAT series in the period 1856-1900. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5646,2001,2,4,Growth and behavioral responses to elevated temperatures by juvenile sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria and the interactive role of food availability,Larval and age-0 sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria reside in neustonic waters of the North Pacific during spring and summer. We estimated the potential impacts of elevated surface temperatures on ecological processes of growth| conversion efficiency| and behavior in early juvenile sablefish. Growth experiments tested a wide range of temperatures from 6 to 24(degrees)C| with fish receiving ad libitum or low (3 % body weight d(-1)) rations. With unlimited food| growth increased rapidly as temperature increased to 14(degrees)C| then displayed a more gradual rise to 22 degreesC. Growth rates at the warmer temperatures were among the highest recorded for teleosts| attaining a maximum of 3.3 nun d(-1) in length and a specific growth in weight of 11.8 %. A similar response to temperature was observed at low rations| although at lower overall growth rates. At 24 degreesC| there was a severe decline in growth for both ration levels| and few fish survived the 3 wk experiments. Gross growth efficiency| measured at temperatures of 6 to 22 degreesC| displayed an interactive effect of temperature with ration level consistent with bioenergetic relationship| Conversion peaked at 16 to 20 degreesC for fish receiving ad libitum rations| and at 10 degreesC for fish on restricted rations. Conversion rates of sablefish were comparable to those calculated for a diverse array of fish species| suggesting that the rapid growth rates are driven by high consumption rather than unusually efficient energy transfer. Experiments analyzing sablefish behavior in thermally stratified water columns demonstrated increasing movement into colder water as ration level decreased| in agreement with an energy conserving strategy. Average monthly temperatures within the major nursery areas of neustonic juveniles (north of 40 degreesN) did not exceed 19 degreesC during the last 19 yr. These results suggest that juvenile sablefish are capable of tolerating and thriving at increased temperatures| with the critical caveat that sufficient food resources must be available. Thus| impacts on early life stages exerted by El Nino conditions| oceanographic regime shifts| or climate changes induced by current global warming scenarios are likely to be a consequence of indirect effects on circulation and productivity patterns rather than direct effects of warmer temperatures. However| because the upper thermal limit for growth nearly coincides with the upper limit for survival| exhibiting a sharp demarcation between favorable growth conditions and intolerable temperatures| juvenile sablefish at the southern Limit of their distribution may suffer the direct effects of elevated temperature; recruitment of juveniles to southern populations may become more sporadic if the frequency of warming events increases with climate change. 3049,2001,2,4,Growth responses of Populus tremuloides clones to interacting elevated carbon dioxide and tropospheric ozone,The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and tropospheric ozone (O-3) are increasing concomitantly globally|| Little is known about the effect of these interacting gases on growth| survival| and productivity of forest ecosystems. In this study we assess the effects of three successive years of exposure to combinations of elevated CO2 and O-3 on growth responses in a five trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) clonal mixture in a regenerating stand. The experiment is located in Rhinelander| Wisconsin| USA (45 degrees N 89 degreesW) and employs free air carbon dioxide and ozone enrichment (FACE) technology. The aspen stand was exposed to a factorial combination of four treatments consisting of elevated CO2 (560 ppm)| elevated O-3 (episodic exposure-90 mul l(-1) hour(-1))| a combination of elevated CO2 and O-3| and ambient control in 30 m treatment rings with three replications. Our overall results showed that our three growth parameters including height| diameter and volume were increased by elevated CO2| decreased by elevated O-3| and were not significantly different from the ambient control under elevated CO2 + O-3. However| there were significant clonal differences in the responses; all five clones exhibited increased growth with elevated CO2| one clone showed an increase with elevated O-3| and two clones showed an increase over the control with elevated CO2 + O-3| two clones showed a decrease| and one was not significantly different from the control. Notably| there was a significant increase in current terminal shoot dieback with elevated CO2 during the 1999-2000 dormant season. Dieback| was especially prominent in two of the five clones| and was attributed to those clones growing longer into the autumnal season where they were subject to frost. Our results show that elevated O-3 negates expected Positive growth effects of elevated CO2 in Populus tremuloides in the field| and suggest that future climate model predictions should take into account the offsetting effects of elevated O-3 on CO2 enrichment when estimating future growth of trembling aspen stands. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5522,2001,4,4,High performance of CO2-temperature gradient chamber newly built for studying the global warming effect on a plant population,To study the effect of global warming concomitant with rising CO2 on plant growth under field-like conditions| a CO2-temperature gradient chamber (CTGC) was created from a standard temperature gradient chamber (TGC). Despite great daily and seasonal changes in ambient air temperature| the gradient of air temperatures was simulated by 5 degreesC warmed conditions at the air outlet| rising at a rare of 1 degreesC at 5 m intervals. Also| CO2 concentrations were linearly increased from the air inlet to the outlet; those at the air inlet and 25 m distance from the air inlet were 372 p.p.m and 756 p.p.m. (doubled)| respectively. The CTGC proved successful in biological experiments conducted through a full growth season in 1998. This apparatus will be useful for understanding plant response to simultaneous changes in CO2 and temperature. Being a combination of a TGC and a CO2 gradient chamber| the improved CTGC allows parameters and validation data sets to both be obtained for models contributing to plant growth| species composition| and global carbon flux analysis. 5429,2001,3,3,Holistic design: key to sustainability in concrete construction,There have been unparalleled advances during the latter half of the last century| to the scientific| engineering and social face of the world| but in that process| the world has also been plunged into several interrelated crises. In the context of the construction industry| these crises can be broadly classified in terms of environment| durability and sustainability. The crises have risen from a number of factors such as technological industrialisation| population growth| worldwide urbanisation| and uncontrolled pollution and creation of waste. There is now the real danger that the massive| indiscriminate and wasteful consumption of the world's material and energy resources may result in extensive global warming that is hard to reverse. The price for this environmental abuse is the rapid deterioration and destruction of the world's infrastructure| water shortages| environmental disasters| and material/structural deterioration by the forces of nature. Every crisis experienced in the world has a direct impact on the construction industry| and since the construction Industry is closely interlinked with energy| resources and environment| irredeemable environmental degradation can only be prevented by sustainable development of the industry which alone can give hope for a better world and better quality of life. This paper advocates a holistic approach to design and construction integrating all aspects from conceptual design to completion and maintenance during service life. 2997,2001,5,3,Holocene paleoclimate data from the Arctic: testing models of global climate change,To evaluate the spatial variability of Arctic climate change during the present interglacial| CAFE Project Members compiled well-dated terrestrial| marine| and ice-core paleoenvironmental records spanning the past 10-12 thousand years (ka). Six tundra biomes of increasing summer temperature requirements were defined based on regionally coherent pollen assemblages. Using a rule-based approach| pollen spectra were converted to tundra| forrst/tundra| or Forest biomes ranked by their average growing season requirements. Marine sea-surface reconstructions were based on proxy data following a similar rule-based approach. From these data-based reconstructions. departures in summer temperatures from modern normals were calculated in 1 ka time slices through the Holocene. To test predictive models| data-based summer temperature reconstructions were compared with general circulation model (GCM) simulations for 10 ka and 6 ka ago. Paleodata and model results both show that warming occurred earlier across Beringia and Asia relative to lands adjacent to the North Atlantic| and that Late Holocene cooling was most apparent in the North Atlantic region. However| the GCM over-predicts the magnitude of Mid-Holocene warming over northern Asia and underestimates the intensification of the North Atlantic drift in the early Holocene. Strong spatial variability in environmental response during the Holocene| despite symmetric (insolation) forcing| suggests that any future changes| whether caused by anthropogenic or natural factors| are unlikely to result in a uniform change across the Arctic| adding additional complexity to forecasts of global impacts. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5606,2001,4,4,Homogeneous ice nucleation in aqueous ammonium sulfate aerosol particles,The mechanisms involved in cloud formation affect the resulting cloud radiative properties. Therefore| accurate cloud formation models and related global warming models require freezing data for ammonium sulfate particles| a major constituent of upper tropospheric clouds. Homogeneous ice nucleation in aqueous ammonium sulfate particles has been studied by several laboratory groups; however| there is significant disagreement in the reported data. In the present work| the ice freezing temperatures are measured by sending (NH|)|SO| particles| generated by vapor condensation| through a temperature-controlled flow cell| where ice formation is detected with infrared spectroscopy. To determine possible explanations for disparate results among several laboratories| the experimental methods used in this study are closely examined. Experiments are performed to preclude artifacts| and experimental conditions are varied to develop a complete understanding of processes involved in particle freezing. All experiments produce consistent results. Mass transfer calculations for the aerosol flow tube technique employed in the current study suggest that one frozen particle in 10(4) to 10(6) may scavenge sufficient water vapor from surrounding supercooled aqueous particles such that a single ice particle accumulates enough mass to yield a positive freezing event in the infrared spectrum. This result appears to partially explain the confusing and conflicting results coming from several laboratories employing different experimental methods to observe homogeneous ice nucleation in ammonium sulfate. Six lower limit J (cm(-3) s(-1)) values are determined as 1.1 x 10(6) (233 +/- 1 K| x = 0.013 +/- 0.001)| 1.1 x 10(6) (231 +/- 1 K| x = 0.029 +/- 0.004)| 1.7 x 10(6) (227 +/- 1 K| x = 0.066 +/- 0.015)| 2.8 x 10(6) (226 +/- 1 K| x = 0.071 +/- 0.018)| 8.4 x 10(6) (224 +/- 1 K| x = 0.097 +/- 0.034)| and 8.4 x 10(8) (221 +/- 1 K| x = 0.153 +/- 0.076)| where the associated temperatures and solute mole fraction aqueous compositions (x) are noted in parentheses. 5427,2001,3,3,Hydrogen production. Green algae as a source of energy,Hydrogen gas is thought to be the ideal fuel for a world in which air pollution has been alleviated| global warming has been arrested| and the environment has been protected in an economically sustainable manner. Hydrogen and electricity could team to provide attractive options in transportation and power generation. Interconversion between these two forms of energy suggests on-site utilization of hydrogen to generate electricity| with the electrical power arid serving in energy transportation| distribution utilization| and hydrogen regeneration as needed. A challenging problem in establishing H-2 as a source of energy for the future is the renewable and environmentally friendly generation of large quantities of H-2 gas. Thus| processes that are presently conceptual in nature| or at a developmental stage in the laboratory| need to be encouraged| tested for feasibility| and otherwise applied toward commercialization. 2993,2001,4,2,Identifying global climate change using simple indices,Several simple indices of surface air temperature patterns are used to describe global climate variability and change. The indices include the land-ocean temperature contrast| the hemispheric contrast| the meridional gradient| and the magnitude of the seasonal cycle| as well as the global-mean temperature. The behaviour of the indices is investigated using global observational data for the period 1881-1994 and long control and anthropogenic climate change simulations with two different climate models. The indices represent the key features of the "fingerprint" of greenhouse climate change. For natural climate variations| they contain information independent of the global-mean temperature. The observed trends over the last 40 years in all the indices| except for the hemispheric contrast| are unlikely to have occurred due to natural climate variations and all are consistent with model simulations of anthropogenic climate change. 5432,2001,2,4,Impact of climate warming on Arctic benthic biodiversity: a case study of two Arctic glacial bays,The retreat of Arctic glaciers and a resultant increase in inorganic sedimentation is one of the predicted consequences of global warming. In order to evaluate possible effects of these processes on arctic benthic biodiversity| the fauna of 2 glacial bays| which may be treated as representing the expected phases of the global warming scenario| have been studied. Based on surface water temperature| type of glacier and resulting inorganic sedimentation rates| 'Tikhaia Bay' off Franz Josef Land was chosen to represent an Arctic bay before warming and 'Skoddebukta'| off west Spitsbergen| to represent a similar bay already affected by the predicted climate changes. Macrofauna was collected at 35 stations in Skoddebukta and 44 stations in Tikhaia Bay. Different methods of measuring faunal diversity (number of species| Shannon diversity index| k-dominance plots) were applied to data sets representing the similar habitats sampled in both bays; these showed the fauna of Tikhaia Bay to be more diverse than that in Skoddebukta. This finding is explained by the lower level of disturbance due to inorganic sedimentation and by better trophic conditions in the former location| both of which are linked to the level of glacial activity. This case study leads to the conclusion that one of the consequences of climate warming for Arctic ecosystems will be a decline of benthic biodiversity due to an increase in mineral sedimentation from meltwaters. 3001,2001,2,4,Impact of climatic and other environmental changes on food production and population health in the coming decades,World population will reach an estimated nine billion by 2050. Given this factor and continued economic development in today's low-income countries| the total global demand for food will increase approximately threefold over the coming half-century. Meanwhile| against this background| newly-occurring global environmental changes such as climate change are anticipated to affect food production. Other incipient large-scale environmental changes likely to affect food production include stratospheric O-3 depletion| the accelerating loss of biodiversity (with knock-on effects on crop and livestock pest species) and the perturbation of several of the great elemental cycles of N and S. The ways in which these various environmental influences affect the production of food (crops and livestock on land| and wild and cultivated fisheries) are complex and interactive. Uncertainties therefore persist about how global climate change is likely to affect world and regional food production. On balance| recent modelling-based estimates indicate that| in the medium to longer term| if not over the next several decades| climate change is likely to affect crop yields adversely| especially in food-insecure regions. The prospect of increased climatic variability further increases the risks to future food production. Given these possible though uncertain adverse impacts of climatic acid other environmental changes on world food production| there is a need to apply the Precautionary Principle. There are finite| and increasingly evident| limits to agro-ecosystems and to wild fisheries. Our capacity to maintain food supplies for an increasingly large and increasingly expectant world population will depend on maximising the efficiency and sustainability of production methods| incorporating socially-beneficial genetic biotechnologies| and taking pre-emptive action to minimise detrimental ecologically-damaging global environmental changes. 5653,2001,2,2,Impact of global warming on the interannual and interdecadal climate modes in a coupled GCM,In this study| we investigated the impact of global warming on the variabilities of large-scale interannual and interdecadal climate modes and teleconnection patterns with two long-term integrations of the coupled general circulation model of ECHAM4/OPYC3 at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology| Hamburg. One is the control (CTRL) run with fixed present-day; concentrations of greenhouse gases. The other experiment is a simulation of transient greenhouse warming| named GHG run. In the GHG run the averaged geopotential height at 500 hPa is increased significantly| and a negative phase of the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection-like distribution pattern is intensified. The standard deviation over the tropics thigh latitudes) is enhanced (reduced) on the interdecadal time scales and reduced (enhanced) on the interannual time scales in the GHG run. Except for an interdecadal mode related to the Southern Oscillation (SO) in the GHG run| the spatial variation patterns are similar for different (interannual + interdecadal| interannual| and interdecadal) time scales in the GHG and CTRL runs. Spatial distributions of the teleconnection patterns on the interannual and interdecadal time scales in the GHG run are also similar to those in the CTRL run. But some teleconnection patterns show linear trends and changes of variances and frequencies in the GHG run. Apart from the positive linear trend of the SO| the interdecadal modulation to the El Nino/SO cycle is enhanced during the GHG 2040 similar to 2099. This is the result of an enhancement of the Walker circulation during that period. La Nino events intensify and El Nino events relatively weaken during the GHG 2070 similar to 2090. It is interesting to note that with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations the relation between the SO and the PNA pattern is reversed significantly from a negative to a positive correlation on the interdecadal time scales and weakened on the interannual time scales. This suggests that the increase of the greenhouse gas concentrations will trigger the nonstationary correlation between the SO and the PNA pattern both on the interdecadal and interannual time scales. 5531,2001,2,4,Impact of global warming on the tree species composition of boreal forests in Finland and effects on emissions of isoprenoids,This study aims to identify how climate change may influence total emissions of monoterpene and isoprene from boreal forest canopies. The whole of Finland is assumed to experience an annual mean temperature (T) increase of 4 degreesC and a precipitation increase of 10% by the year 2100. This will increase forest resources throughout the country. At the same time| the proportions of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) in southern Finland (60 degrees less than or equal to latitude <65Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO2 climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall-runoff model. RegCM output from a five-year| equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO2 levels was compared to a similar present-day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes| simulated on a 50-km grid| were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasins in the rainfall-runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall-runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months| but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.
3036,2001,2,4,Impacts of extreme climatic events on competition during grassland invasions,Phytometers of five C3 and five C4 species were transplanted into three different grasslands to study the effects of extreme climatic events on community invasibility and competition. Single extreme heating (eight hours at 52.5 degreesC) and rainfall (the equivalent of 100 mm) events in factorial combinations were superimposed on the grassland communities. A novel technique involving portable computer-controlled chambers was used to create the heating events. In order to generate predictions of response to the extreme climatic events| the 10 phytometer species were categorized con the basis of 12 key plant functional traits. Using principal component analysis| two functional types (FTs) were identified as most likely to be advantaged (FT1| fast-growing C4 annuals) and disadvantaged (FT2| slower-growing C3 perennials) by an extreme climatic event. Competition between the resident vegetation and FT1 plus other C4 phytometers was consistently more intense within the exclusively C3 community compared to the dry C3/C4 community or moist C3/C4 community. The single extreme heating event had the greatest impact on competition| lowering the intensity of competition between the phytometers and resident vegetation. Our results indicate that competition is highly important in limiting the invasion of C3 grasslands by C4 species. The FT1 and FT2 responses confirmed predictions based on plant functional traits| whether growing as phytometers or as part of the resident vegetation. Future increases in climatic variability and the incidence of extreme climatic events are expected to suppress C3 competitive dominance and promote invasion of C4 species| in particular| the FT1 species. 5663,2001,3,4,In vitro techniques for genomic alteration in rice plants,Because of the explosive increase in world population| a sufficient food supply must be achieved by varietal improvement in the major cereal crops including rice. It is expected that new in vitro techniques in combination with conventional breeding methods may effectively raise the yield potential. On the other hand| there are many environmental problems to be solved world-wide such as| global warming| environmental pollution| ecological destruction| reduction in water supplies and so on. Therefore| it is necessary to rapidly develop new varieties for the future combining of higher yield potential with excellent grain quality| and resistance to both biotic and abiotic stresses for the promotion of sustainable agriculture. Although many efforts have been made to introduce useful traits from wild species to cultivated rice via hybridization| it is still difficult to overcome breeding barriers such as cross incompatibility and hybrid sterility and inviability in practical breeding. Now in vitro techniques are going to make it possible to use genetic manipulation and cell culture and fusion techniques to speed up the breeding process. For sustainable agriculture| it is important to utilize the useful genes from alien species. For this purpose| asymmetric protoplast fusions have already been used successfully to transfer disease resistance in Brassica napus. In this experiment| a high level of resistance to the rice blast disease was transferred from wild species through asymmetric fusions. It is also noted that manipulation of cytoplasmic genomes is possible through asymmetric fusions as shown in the induction of new cytoplasmic male sterility (CMS). 5487,2001,2,4,Increased understanding of nutrient immobilization in soil organic matter is critical for predicting the carbon sink strength of forest ecosystems over the next 100 years,The terrestrial biosphere is currently thought to be a significant sink for atmospheric carbon (C). However| the future course of this sink under rising [CO2] and temperature is uncertain. Some contrasting possibilities that have been suggested are: that the sink is currently increasing through CO2 fertilization of plant growth but will decline over the next few decades because Of CO2 saturation and soil nutrient constraints; that the sink will continue to increase over the next century because rising temperature will stimulate the release of plant-available soil nitrogen (N) through increased soil decomposition; that| alternatively| the sink will not be sustained because the additional soil N released will be immobilized in the soil rather than taken up by plants; or that the sink will soon become negative because loss of soil C through temperature stimulation of soil respiration will override any CO2 or temperature stimulation of plant growth. Soil N immobilization is thus a key process; however| it remains poorly understood. In this paper we use a forest ecosystem model of plant-soil C and N dynamics to gauge the importance of this uncertainty for predictions of the future C sink of forests under rising [CO2] and temperature. We characterize soil N immobilization by the degree of variability of soil N:C ratios assumed in the model. We show that the modeled C sink of a stand of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in northern Sweden is highly sensitive to this assumption. Under increasing temperature| the model predicts a strong C sink when soil N:C is inflexible| but a greatly reduced C sink when soil N:C is allowed to vary. In complete contrast| increasing atmospheric [CO2] leads to a much stronger C sink when soil N:C is variable. When both temperature and [CO2] increase| the C sink strength is relatively insensitive to variability in soil N:C; significantly| however| with inflexible soil N:C the C sink is primarily a temperature response whereas with variable soil N:C| it is a combined temperature-CO2 response. Simulations with gradual increases of temperature and [CO2] indicate a sustained C sink over the next 100 years| in contrast to recent claims that the C sink will decline over the next few decades. Nevertheless| in using a relatively simple model| our primary aim is not to make precise predictions of the C sink over the next 100 years| but rather to highlight key areas of model uncertainty requiring further experimental clarification. Here we show that improved understanding of the processes underlying soil N immobilization is essential if we are to predict the future course of the forest carbon sink. 2960,2001,2,4,Indicators of UV exposure in corals and their relevance to global climate change and coral bleaching,A compelling aspect of the deterioration of coral reefs is the phenomenon of coral bleaching. Through interactions with other factors such as sedimentation| pollution| and bacterial infection| bleaching can impact large areas of a reef with limited recovery| and it might be induced by a variety of stressors including temperature and salinity extremes| and ultraviolet light. Under conditions of ocean warming| often associated with calm and stratified waters| photobleaching of UV-absorbing chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is increased| and penetration of both UV-B. and UV-A is greatly enhanced. Indices of UV-specific effects in coral tissue are needed to test whether UV increases| associated with global climate change| are harmful to corals. To address this challenge| we have evaluated UV-specific effects in corals and have characterized factors that alter penetration of UV radiation over coral reefs. An immunoblotting assay was developed to examine UV-specific lesions (thymine dimers) in coral and zooxanthellae DNA. We observed dose-dependent increases of thymine dimers in coral (Porites porites var porites) exposed to artificial solar irradiance in a solar simulator| although effects were not strictly proportional. UV measurements were made in July 1999 at Eastern Sambo reef and nearby sites| including profiling along transects from reef to shore. Results of these analyses indicate that the coral at Eastern Sambo reef (at 34 meters) were receiving UV-B radiation that was equivalent to 25 to 30% of surface UV irradiance. However| the water just inside the reef in Hawk Channel (located closer to land) was considerably more opaque to UV. This water photobleached with loss of UV absorbance and fluorescence when it was exposed to simulated solar radiation. These results indicate that photobleaching of the DOM and transport of near-shore water out over the reefs might play a key role in controlling UV penetration to the reef surface. 5560,2001,2,4,Influence of high temperature on end-of-season tundra CO2 exchange,The high-arctic terrestrial environment is generally recognized as one of the world's most sensitive areas with regard to global warming. In this study| we examined the influence of an isolated warm period on net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange at high latitude during autumn. Using the Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI) technique| we manipulated air| soil| and vegetation temperatures in late August in a tundra site at Zackenberg in the National Park of North and East Greenland (74 degreesN 21 degreesW). The consequences for gross canopy photosynthesis| canopy respiration| and belowground respiration of increasing these temperatures by approximately 2.5 degreesC were determined with closed dynamic CO2 exchange systems. Under current temperatures| the ecosystem acted as a net CO2 source| releasing 19 g CO2-C m(-2) over the 14-day study period. Warm soils and senescing vegetation in autumn were unequivocally responsible for this efflux. Heating enhanced CO2 efflux to 29 g CO2-C m(-2). This effect was attributed to a 39% increase in belowground respiration| which was the main component of the carbon (C) budget. Gross photosynthesis| on the other hand| was not affected significantly by the simulated warming. Although the aftereffects of an isolated warm period on the C balance in early winter could be significant| simulations with a simple C budget model suggest that soil carbon pools are not affected to a great extent by such a climatic disturbance. The influence on atmospheric carbon| however| appears to be significant. 5483,2001,3,4,Influence of the nitrification inhibitor 3|4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP) in comparison to dicyandiamide (DCD) on nitrous oxide emissions| carbon dioxide fluxes and methane oxidation during 3 years of repeated application in field experiments,In a 3-year field experiment| the effect of the nitrification inhibitor (NI) 3|4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP) on the release of N2O| CO2 and on CH4 oxidation| was examined in comparison to that of dicyandiamide (DCD) on N-fertilized and unfertilized experimental sites. Soil samples were analysed simultaneously for the concentrations of N2O retained in the soil body. NH4+| NO2-| NO3-| and for the degradation kinetics of DMPP as well as DCD. DMPP decreased the release of N2O on fertilized plots by 41% (1997)| 47% (1998) and 53% (1999) (on average by 49%) while DCD reduced N2O emissions by 30% (1997) 22% (1998) and 29% (1999) (on average by 26%). In addition| the NIs seemed to decrease the CO2 emissions of each fertilized treatment. DCD reduced the release of CO2 by an average of 7% for the 3 years (non-fertilized 10%)| and DMPP reduced it by an average of up to 28% (non-fertilized 29%). Furthermore| both NIs failed to affect CH4 oxidation negatively. The plots that received either DCD or DMPP even seemed to function as enhanced sinks for atmospheric CH4. DMPP apparently stimulated CH4 oxidation of N-fertilized plots by ca 28% in comparison to the control. In total| DCD and DMPP reduced the global warming potential of N-fertilized plots by 7% and 30%| respectively. Further| DCD and DMPP diminished the amount of N2O retained in the soil by 52% and 61%| respectively. The concentrations of NH4+ remained unaffected by both NIs| whereas the amounts of NO2- diminished in the plots treated with DCD by 25% and with DMPP by 20%. In both NI treatments NO3- concentrations in the soil were 23% lower than in the control. DMPP and DCD did not affect the yields of summer barley| maize and winter wheat significantly. DCD was mineralized more rapidly than DMPP. 5615,2001,3,3,Interactions and coupling between emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from animal husbandry,The gases methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) contribute to global warming| while N(2)O also affects the ozone layer. Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in animal husbandry include animals| animal houses (indoor storage of animal excreta)| outdoor storage| manure and slurry treatment (e.g.| composting| anaerobic treatment)| land application and chemical fertilisers. Although in many countries emphasis is put on reduction of environmental pollution by nutrients| ammonia emission and odour nuisance| reduction of the emission of greenhouse gases will become equally important in the near future to meet integrated sustainability criteria (1997 Kyoto protocol). Emissions of greenhouse gases differ in origin. Methane from animal husbandry is for a large part endogenous| and may be hard to reduce in intensive animal production. Methane emission reduction strategies should focus on its use as fuel or preventing its formation| mainly during on-farm storage (indoor| outside) or treatment through control of critical processes (degradation of organic matter) and critical factors (e.g.| temperature). Nitrous oxide is mainly produced during the aerobic storage and treatment of animal excreta| as well as after land spreading. As N(2)O basically is an intermediate product of complex biochemical processes (nitrification| denitrification)| optimal process conditions are the key issues in N(2)O emission reduction strategies from animal husbandry. 5445,2001,2,3,Interactive effects of increased temperature and CO(2) on the growth of Quercus myrsinaefolia saplings,The interactive effects of increased temperature and CO(2) enrichment on the growth of 2-year-old saplings of Quercus myrsinaefolia| an evergreen broad-leaved oak| were studied throughout an entire year in the vicinity of their northernmost distribution. Saplings were grown under different conditions in two chambers: (1) a temperature gradient chamber at ambient temperature| 3 and 5 degreesC warmer condition's with an ambient CO(2) concentration| and (2) in a CO(2) temperature gradient chamber at 3 degreesC warmer conditions|with 1.5 times the normal CO(2) concentration| and 5 degreesC warmer conditions with doubled CO(2) concentration. The 3 and 5 degreesC warmer conditions enhanced the relative growth rate during almost the entire year| producing 53 and 47% increases in annual biomass production| 27 and 44% enhancement of root growth during shoot dormancy and 3 and 5 week prolongation of the shoot growing period| respectively. However| a daily mean air temperature exceeding 30 degreesC under the 5 degreesC warmer condition caused a marked reduction in net assimilation rate (NAR) from July to September. The CO(2) enrichment further enhanced the positive effects of warming in spring and the resulting increases in NAR almost completely compensated for the negative effect of warming during summer. From autumn to winter| attenuation of the effects of CO(2) was compensated by the increased sink strength produced by the warming. The annual biomass production was more than doubled by the combination of temperature elevation and CO(2) enrichment. 3047,2001,3,4,Intertemporal social choice and climate stabilization,This paper examines the implications of alternative approaches to intertemporal social choice in a numerically calibrated model of interactions between global climate change and the world economy. Under cost-benefit analysis| relatively modest steps towards greenhouse gas emissions abatement are justified as economically efficient. Under classical utilitarianism and the precautionary principle. in contrast| aggressive steps towards climate stabilization emerge as socially optimal. The paper reviews the value judgements that support each of these normative approaches| arguing that the precautionary principle is most closely tied to the goals and objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. 5535,2001,2,3,Investigating the haze transport from 1997 biomass burning in Southeast Asia: its impact upon Singapore,The 1997 Indonesia forest fires was an environmental disaster of exceptional proportions. Such a disaster caused massive transboundary air pollution and indiscriminate destruction of biodiversity in the world. The immediate consequence of the fires was the production of large amounts of haze in the region| causing visibility and health problems within Southeast Asia. Furthermore| fires of these magnitudes are potential contributors to global warming and climate change due to the emission of large amounts of greenhouse gases and other pyrogenic products. The long-range transport of fire-related haze in the region is investigated using trajectories from the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research Limited Area Model(DARLAM). Emission scenarios were constructed for hotspot areas in Sumatra and Kalimantan For the months of September and October 1997 to determine the period and fire locations most critical to Singapore. This study also examines some transport issues raised from field observations. Results show that fires in the coastal areas of southeast Sumatra and southwest Kalimantan can be potential contributors to transboundary air pollution in Singapore. Singapore was directly affected by haze from these areas whereas Kuala Lumpur was heavily affected by the haze coming From Sumatra. In most cases| Singapore was more affected by fires from Kalimantan than was Kuala Lumpur. This was mainly a result of the shifting of monsoons. The transition of monsoons resulted in weaker low-level winds and shifted convergence zones near to the southeast of Peninsular Malaysia. In addition to severe drought and massive fire activity in 1997| the timing of the monsoon transition has a strong influence on haze transport in the region. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 3039,2001,4,4,Is Southern Ocean organic carbon and biogenic silica export enhanced by iron-stimulated increases in biological production? Sediment trap results from SOIREE,During the first in situ| mesoscale iron fertilisation experiment conducted in the Southern Ocean (SOIREE| 61 degreesS 140 degreesE| austral summer| February 10-22| 1999)| export processes beneath an iron-stimulated phytoplankton bloom were monitored using free-drifting sediment traps. Duplicated arrays were deployed during days T7-9 and T11-13 inside the iron-fertilised patch with single "control" arrays deployed outside the patch on days T0-2 and T11-13. Average total mass and chlorophyll a flux at 110 m approximately doubled between TO-2 and T7-9 (395-735 mg dry weight m(-2) d(-1) and 50-110 mug chl a m(-2) d(-1)| respectively)| while particulate organic carbon (POC)| particulate organic nitrogen (PON) and phaeopigment fluxes increased only slightly (15-30%) and biogenic silica (BSi) fluxes were essentially constant (90-100mgm(-2)d(-1)). Inside the patch between T7-9 and T11-13| mass flux remained at about 735-745 mg m(-2) d(-1) while other flux components increased by 30-40%. Mean POC and silica fluxes inside the patch at T11-13 were about 185 and 150mgm(-2)d(-1)| respectively| compared with 80 and 90 mgm(-2) d(-1) measured outside. However| flux variations of > 50% between the two "control" deployments at TO-2 and T11-13 confounded the trapping experiment. POC and PON fluxes at deep traps were typically 30-50% of those at shallow traps| whereas total mass and silica fluxes at 310 m were generally 70- > 90% of the flux at 110 m| indicating substantial remineralisation of POC| relative to silica| over the top 300 m of the water column. As also suggested by other biogeochemical proxies (Th-234| delta C-13)| POC and biogenic silica export from the SOIREE patch did not increase measurably in response to iron-stimulated increases in primary production and a floristic shift to large| heavily silicified| chain-forming diatoms. The temporal decoupling between new and export production was accompanied by considerable algal accumulation in the mixed layer| reductions in phytoplankton sinking rates inside the patch| and low levels of mesozooplankton grazing during SOIREE. Since elevated satellite-derived algal concentrations persisted near the experimental site for 30-45 d after SOIREE| a conservative estimate of potential total nux from the bloom is calculated (6-9 g C m(-2)). Considerable logistical constraints must be overcome| however| in order to quantify the magnitude of carbon export from iron-mediated blooms at high southern latitudes before we can establish links between Southern Ocean productivity and global climate change| as encapsulated in the "Iron Hypothesis". (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5473,2001,2,4,Isolation (with enrichment) and characterization of trinucleotide microsatellites from Phlebotomus perniciosus| a vector of Leishmania infantum,Mitochondrial DNA characterization of the sandfly Phlebotomus perniciosus has not resolved the population structure of its Iberian lineage. For this purpose| four AGC- and seven AGG-class microsatellite loci were characterized| after their isolation using Biotin-Avidin enrichment and the screening of plasmid libraries by polymerase chain reaction. Of the five polymorphic loci analysed in four Spanish populations| four showed patterns of allele diversity consistent with migration from a southern Ice Age refuge. Estimates of the historical migration rates of P. perniciosus will help to predict the effects of global warming on its range and that of Leishmania infantum| the parasitic protozoan it transmits. 5458,2001,4,4,Isotonic regression: Another look at the changepoint problem,A test based on isotonic regression is developed for monotonic trends in short range dependent sequences and is applied to Argentina rainfall data and global warming data. This test provides another perspective for changepoint problems. The isotonic test is shown to be more powerful than some existing tests for trend. 5396,2001,5,4,Lake-expanding events in the Tibetan Plateau since 40 kaBP,Since 40 kaBP| the current endorheism on the Tibetan Plateau had experienced at least four lake-expanding events| at 40-28 kaBP| 19-15 kaBP| 13-11 kaBP| 9.0-5.0 kaBP| respectively. The 40-28 kaBP and 9.0-5.0 kaBP lake-expanding events| corresponding to the global warming periods| were mainly determined by the abundant summer monsoon rainfall brought by strong Indian monsoon| aroused by enhanced solar radiation at earth orbital precessional cycle. The 40-28 kaBP lake-expanding event| also called the great lake period or the pan-lake period| for several great lake groups had come into being by the interconnection of the presently isolated and closed lake catchments. The total lake area over the Tibetan Plateau was estimated at least up to 150000 km(2)| 3.8 times of the present| and the lake supply coefficients were about 3-10. The 9.0-5.0 kaBP lake-expanding| with a total lake area of 68000 km(2)| less than the above mentioned reflected the Indian monsoon rainfall less than that of 40-28 kaBP. The expanded lakes at 19-15 kaBP and 13-11 kaBP| distributed in these basins with more or less existing glacial| indicated plenty of glacial meltwater discharged to balance evaporation on expansive lake surface. At the same time| the enhanced precipitation by the westerlies at 19-15 kaBP and by Indian monsoon at 13-11 kaBP plays an important role in maintaining the high lake level. Heinrich events greatly affected the evolution of climate system over the Tibetan Plateau| and thus gave a clear boundary of the high lake level change in the late Quaternary. 2967,2001,2,4,Land loss at the Venezuelan coast due to sea level rise,Some of the effects of the global climate change comprise impacts on human health| agricultural production and plagues| sea level rise| patterns of precipitation and evaporation| and storms. The objective of this study is to assess the potential land loss upon a sea level rise of 0.5m in two Venezuelan coastal sectors: Cabo Codera-Parque Nacional Laguna de Tacarigua and Barcelona-Puerto La-Cruz-Guanta. It was estimated that the first one of the two sectors is more vulnerable to land loss due to erosion| while losses due to inundation are not significantly higher for any of the two areas. Impacts affect mostly urban areas| tourist infrastructure and coastal wetlands. In the vulnerability analysis of sea level impact| the response options evaluated would generate a very high cost for the country. It is proposed that vulnerability analysis to sea level rise be incorporated as part of the coastal zones planning and management process. 5614,2001,2,4,Lapse rate changes in northern England,Most GCMs indicate distinct elevational signals in temperature response to global warning| both in the free-air and at the surface| although modelled changes are spatially variable| in magnitude and in sign. In this study| daily climate observations (1968-1995) from two sites in northern England| representative of upland and lowland environments| are used to derive a regionally representative lapse rate. The lapse rates of daily maximum and minimum temperatures show strong seasonal and diurnal patterns. and relationships with synoptic conditions| classified using the Lamb classification. Synoptic types with westerly components show the most rapid decrease of temperature with elevation. Lapse rates are also steeper when there is a strong altitudinal increase in cloud cover| decrease in sunshine duration| or strong wind shear. Lapse rates are becoming steeper by day but weaker at night (p < 0.1%). Such changes occur within most synoptic types| and there are not many statistically significant changes in relative airflow frequencies. Weak relationships exist between measurements of the NAO and lapse rates| but within airflow-type modification is also influential| being connected with changes in SSTs to the west of the U.K. Correlations between mean monthly lapse rates and SSTs vary spatially. Low SSTs in the north and high SSTs in the south of the region encourage steep daytime lapse rates| implying a steeper lapse rate under a stronger meridional temperature gradient. At night the opposite relationship holds. Over time there has been strengthening in the meridional SST gradient to the west of the U.K.| confirmed by analysis of a SST data set from CRU (1968-1995). This correlates with the increased diurnal lapse rate signal. Changes in upland temperatures in northern England are dependent on variable lapse rate modification for individual synoptic types| in this case influenced by upwind SSTs and their meridional gradient. Thus different mountain ranges will react in contrasting ways to global warming. 2998,2001,2,4,Large scale Antarctic features captured by multi-frequency scanning microwave radiometer on-board OCEANSAT-1,This paper discusses the features observed over the Antarctic in the passive microwave emission region by the multi-frequency scanning microwave radiometer (MSMR) instrument on-board the Indian remote sensing satellite IRS-P4| now called OCEANSAT-1| Brightness temperature images produced from MSMR show a clear distinction between open water and sea-ice-covered regions. It is also possible to differentiate several levels of ice concentration in the Antarctic Circumpolar Ocean. A number of land features like the Trans-Antarctic Mountain Ranges| part of Gamburtsev sub-glacial mountains| Wilkes and Aurora sub-glacial basins| etc| can be demarcated as well| The consistent quality and regular availability of MSMR data since June 1999 serve as a very useful tool in all-weather day-and-night monitoring of the Antarctic region. MSMR data used in continuation of ESMR| SMMR and SSM/I data| would prove valuable in the study of long-term changes in the polar cryosphere associated with global climate change. 5627,2001,2,4,Late 18th century drought-induced sand dune activity| Great Sand Hills| Saskatchewan,Geomorphic evidence and optical ages from seven locations indicate that widespread dune activity occurred within the last 200 years in the Great Sand Hills region of southwestern Saskatchewan. Optical ages (n = 36) define an interval of dune activity bracketed by the earliest age of back ridges in the Seward sand hills (185 +/- 8 years) and the average age of stabilized dune heads (about 105 years). During this interval| parabolic dunes were active in all areas studied. These ages indicate that the most recent interval of activity was initiated about AD 1800| and continued at a level higher than present for approximately 80 years. The most likely cause of dune activation was lower-than-average precipitation (relative to 1960-1991 values) through the 1700s| culminating in drought in the late 1700s| as evidenced in dendroclimatic records from the Cypress Hills and from the Rocky Mountain foothills. Dunes affected by such climatically induced regional activity require many decades to restabilize. Historical observations show that dunes in this area have been restabilizing throughout the 20th century. For the southern Canadian Prairies| a region with serious concerns about the implications of global warming| this study highlights the sensitivity of sand dunes to drought and cumulative moisture stress. 5586,2001,3,3,Life cycle assessment estimation for eco-management of co-generation systems,A LCA (life cycle assessment) scheme for any industrial activity system is introduced to estimate the quantitative loan on the environment with the aid of the NETS (numerical environment total standard) method proposed by the authors as a numerical measure. Two kinds of environmental loads respecting fossil fuel depletion as input resources to the system and global warming due to CO2 emission as output are taken into account in the present eco-criterion| in which the total eco-load (EcL) value is calculated from the summation of respective environmental load factors on the whole process in a life cycle of the system. This NETS method is applied to eco-management co-generation systems| in which a computer-aided output navigator proceeds the LCA estimation|with ICON and Q&A communication. An operation scheme most friendly to the environment with a minimum EcL value| i.e.| an eco-operation scheme| is derived from the optimization theory. 5667,2001,3,4,Life cycle assessment of different reuse percentages for glass beer bottles,Life cycle assessment (LCA) is increasingly becoming an important tool for ecological evaluation of products or processes. In this study the environmental impacts associated with the returnable and the non-returnable glass beer bottles were assessed in order to compare different reuse percentages. The inventory analysis is performed with data obtained from two Portuguese companies (a glass bottles producer and a brewery) and completed with the BUWAL database. It includes all operations associated with the bottles' manufacture| the brewery and the wastewater treatment plant. The environmental impact assessment considers both the potential ecological and ecotoxicological effects of the emissions. The environmental impact categories included and discussed in this study are the contribution to ecological and human health| global warming| stratospheric ozone depletion| acidification| eutrophication and photochemical ozone creation. The first category is divided into three subcategories that are human toxicity| critical air volume and critical water volume. This study was performed for several reuse percentages and returnable bottle cycles| and is comprised of a sensitivity analysis. The general output is that the relative importance of the impacts associated with the use of returnable and/or non-returnable bottles depends on the number of cycles performed by the returnable bottles. According to the impact index defined in this study| the most significant impacts are the eutrophication and the final solid wastes generated| and the least significant impact is the ozone depletion. 5509,2001,3,3,Life cycle assessment of eco-designed residential gas appliances,LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) has been conducted on residential gas appliances designed based on the eco-design guide that city gas suppliers planned| for certifying validity and clarifying problems of it. In other words| life cycle inventories of these gas appliances were generated| and Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) was carried out. Five environmental impact categories were considered: "Resources Consumption"| "Global Warming"| "Acidification"| "Energy Consumption"| and "Solid Waste". The following results were obtained. Components of residential gas appliances are mostly iron and nonferrous metals. The residential gas appliances designed to be light give lower environmental loads at the production stage than general gas appliances| but occasionally the environmental loads are increased. This suggests there is the trade-off relation between the designing for lightness and the environmental loads depending on the material. It is necessary to develop the optimizing techniques to minimize environment loads when the material is selected. It is necessary to develop a new LCA methodology by which the change of the inventory as time passes is considered with the product that has large environmental loads at the using stage. 3022,2001,2,4,Light regime in an Arctic fiord: a study related to stratospheric ozone depletion as a basis for determination of UV effects on algal growth,Solar radiation as a primary abiotic factor affecting productivity of seaweeds was monitored in the Arctic Kongsfjord on Spitsbergen from 1996 to 1998. The radiation was measured in air and underwater| with special emphasis on the UV-B (ultraviolet B| 280-320 nm) radiation| which may increase under conditions of stratospheric ozone depletion. The recorded irradiances were related to ozone concentrations measured concurrently in the atmosphere above the Kongsfjord with a balloon-carried ozone probe and by TOMS satellite. For comparison| an ozone index (a spectroradiometrically determined irradiance of a wavelength dependent on ozone concentration| standardized to a non-affected wavelength) was used to indicate the total ozone concentration present in the atmosphere. Weather conditions and| hence| solar irradiance measured at ground level were seldom stable throughout the study. UV-B irradiation was clearly dependent on the actual ozone concentration in the atmosphere with a maximal fluence rate of downward irradiance of 0.27 W m(-2) on the ground and a maximal daily fluence (radiation exposure) of 23.3 kJ m(-2) To characterize the water body| the light transmittance| temperature and salinity were monitored at two different locations: (1) at a sheltered shallow-water bay and (2) at a wave-exposed| deep-water location within the Kongsfjord. During the clearest water conditions in spring| the vertical attenuation coefficient (K-d) for photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was 0.12 m(-1) and for UV-B 0.34 m(-1). In spring| coinciding with low temperatures and clear water conditions| the harmful UV radiation penetrated deeply into the water column and the threshold irradiance negatively affecting primary plant productivity was still found at about 5-6 m depth. The water body in spring was characterized as a Jerlov coastal water type 1. With increasing temperature in summer| snow layers and glacier ice melted| resulting in a high discharge of turbid fresh water into the fjord. This caused a stratification in the optical features| the salinity and temperature of the water body. During melt-water input| a turbid freshwater layer was formed above the more dense sea water. Under these conditions| light attenuation was stronger than defined for a Jerlov coastal water type 9. Solar radiation was strongly attenuated in the first few metres of the water column. Consequently| organisms in deeper water are protected against harmful UV-B radiation. In the surface water| turbidity decreased when rising tide caused an advection of clearer oceanic water. In the course of the summer season| salinity continuously decreased and water temperature increased particularly in shallow water regions. The impact of global climate change on the radiation conditions under water and its effects on primary production of seaweeds are discussed| since organisms in the eulittoral and upper sublittoral zones are affected by UV radiation throughout the polar day. In clearer water conditions during spring| this may also apply to organisms inhabiting greater depths. 5433,2001,4,3,Limitations of the equivalent CO2 approximation in climate change simulations,The "equivalent CO2" approximation often used to simulate the climatic effects of a suite of trace greenhouse gases is investigated using a recent version of the NCAR Community Climate Model. We performed present-day and preindustrial equilibrium climate simulations. The climate sensitivity is lower by similar to 20% in the equivalent CO2 case compared to the control case in which the individual trace gases were treated explicitly. This is reflected in similar percentage differences in global- and annual-mean surface temperature| precipitation| precipitable water| and sea ice. The temperature changes are also different regionally in the tropical and subtropical troposphere and in the stratosphere. This difference in climate sensitivity originates from differences in the spatial pattern of radiative forcing. The equivalent CO2 forcing pattern differs from the control case forcing pattern for several reasons| but the dependence on temperature of the Planck emission spectrum appears to be fundamentally most important. The primary absorption bands of CH4 and N2O are found at wavelengths more sensitive to the temperature-related shift of the wavelength of maximum emission than the absorption bands of CO2. This leads to stronger spatial variations in absorption by trace gases than by CO2. We conclude that because of differences in the pattern of radiative forcing| the equilibrium response of global climate to increases in trace gases is larger than the response to an "equivalent" increase in CO2| and the patterns of response are also different. 5389,2001,4,4,Long term persistence in the atmosphere: global laws and tests of climate models,The persistence of short term weather states is a well known phenomenon: A warm day is more likely to be followed by a warm day than by a cold one and vice versa. Using advanced methods from statistical physics that are able to distinguish between trends and persistence we have shown recently that this rule may well extend to months| years and decades| and on these scales the decay of the persistence seems to follow a universal power law. Here we review these studies and discuss| how the law can be used as an (uncomfortable) test bed for the state-of-the-art climate models. It turns out that the models considered display wide performance differences and actually fail to reproduce the universal power law behavior of the persistence. It seems that the models tend to underestimate persistence while overestimating trends| and this fact may imply that the models exaggerate the expected global warming of the atmosphere. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science BN. All rights reserved. 5619,2001,2,4,Long-term changes in plankton community structure and productivity in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre: The domain shift hypothesis,Oceanic productivity| fishery yields and the net marine sequestration of atmospheric greenhouse gases are all controlled by the structure and function of planktonic communities. Detailed paleoceanographic studies have documented abrupt changes in these processes over timescales ranging from centuries to millennia. Most of these major shifts in oceanic productivity and biodiversity are attributable to changes in Earth's climate| manifested through large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. By comparison| contemporary biodiversity and plankton community dynamics are generally considered to be "static"| in part due to the lack of a suitable time frame of reference| and the absence of oceanic data to document ecosystem change over relatively short timescales (decades to centuries). Here we show that the average concentrations of chlorophyll a (chl a) and the estimated rates of primary production in the surface waters of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) off Hawaii have more than doubled while the concentrations of dissolved silicate and phosphate have decreased during the past three decades. These changes are accompanied by an increase in the concentration of chl b| suggesting a shift in phytoplankton community structure. We hypothesize that these observed ecosystem trends and other related biogeochemical processes in the upper portion of the NPSG are manifestations of plankton community succession in response to climate variations. The hypothesized photosynthetic population "domain shift" toward an ecosystem dominated by prokaryotes has altered nutrient flux pathways and affected food web structure| new and export production processes| and fishery yields. Further stratification of the surface ocean resulting from global warming could lead to even more enhanced selection pressures and additional changes in biogeochemical dynamics. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5639,2001,2,4,Long-term trends in the seasonal cycle of Great Lakes water levels,Numerous long-term trends in the rate-of-change in monthly mean Great Lakes water levels are identified for the period 1860 to 1998. Statistically significant trends are found for 2| 4| 5| and 7 months of the year for Lakes Superior| Michigan-Huron| Erie| and Ontario| respectively. Many of the trends translate into large changes in net water flux (600 to 1|700 m(3)/s). In each case| significant positive trends are roughly offset by negative trends during other times of the year. Together with similar trends in monthly lake level anomalies (deviations from the annual mean)| these trends indicate important changes in the seasonal cycle of Great Lakes water levels. Specifically| Lakes Erie and Ontario are rising and falling (on an annual basis) roughly one month earlier than they did 139 years ago. Maximum lake levels for Lake Superior are also slightly earlier in the year| and the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of Lake Ontario is found to increase by 23% over the 139-year period. Some of the changes are consistent with the predicted impacts of global warming on spring snowmelt and runoff in the Great Lakes region. Other potential contributors to the observed trends include seasonal changes in precipitation and human induced effects such as lake regulation and changes in land use. 5528,2001,2,4,Loss of speciation rate will impoverish future diversity,Human activities have greatly reduced the amount of the earth's area available to wild species. As the area they have left declines| so will their rates of speciation. This loss of speciation will occur for two reasons: species with larger geographical ranges speciate faster: and loss of area drives up extinction rates| thus reducing the number of species available for speciation. Theory predicts steady states in species diversity| and fossils suggest that these have typified life for most of the past 500 million years. Modern and fossil evidence indicates that| at the scale of the whole earth and its major biogeographical provinces| those steady states respond linearly| or nearly so| to available area. Hence| a loss of x% of area will produce a loss of about x% of species. Local samples of habitats merely echo the diversity available in the whole province of which they are a part. So| conservation tactics that rely on remnant patches to preserve diversity cannot succeed for long. Instead| diversity will decay to a depauperate steady state in two phases. The first will involve deterministic extinctions| reflecting the loss of all areas in which a species can ordinarily sustain its demographics. The second will be stochastic| reflecting accidents brought on by global warming| new diseases| and commingling the species of the separate bio-provinces. A new kind of conservation effort| reconciliation ecology| can avoid this decay. Reconciliation ecology discovers how to modify and diversify anthropogenic habitats so that they harbor a wide variety of species. It develops management techniques that allow humans to share their geographical range with wild species. 5642,2001,2,4,Losses caused by weather and climate extremes: A national index for the United States,An annual index measuring past national losses and capable of measuring future loss from weather and climate extremes was developed to help measure future shifts in climate| a subject of great concern to the global warming issue and the insurance industry. Results from climate models indicate that a changed climate owing to global warming would alter and increase many extremes| and the objective of this study was to develop a national-scale index to monitor change in monetary losses and costs from weather and climate extremes. Forty-four historical variables addressing various aspects of weather and climate extremes and their effects on the U.S. economy since the late 1940s were assessed as potential input to such an index. Frequencies of most severe weather conditions from 1950 to 1997 did not correspond well with their financial impacts. However| hurricane losses did correspond with the frequency of intense hurricanes| and tornado losses corresponded well with the number of violent tornadic storms. Quality insurance loss data for several major storm types (thunder| hail| winter| and wind storms) were available| plus quality data on flood and hurricane losses| and all were adjusted to 1997 dollars. Techniques were developed to assess the effect of seasonal climate extremes on major crop yields and costs for electricity and natural gas consumed. Trends were upward for certain key variables between 1950 and 1997| including the incidence and losses associated with winter storms| flood losses| crop losses| and incidence of heavy rains. Trends were downward for other weather-driven loss variables including hurricane losses| energy costs| thunderstorm losses| wind storm losses| and hail losses. Nine loss variables were selected to develop the U.S. annual loss index| and in rank order| based on their average annual loss values| were energy costs| followed by losses from hurricanes| floods| severe convective storms| crops| tornadoes| winter storms| hail| and wind storms. The variables chosen also will be available in future years to allow a continuing assessment using the index. The 1950-1997 average annual index value was $17.47 billion (1997 dollars)| with annual values ranging from a high of $54.4 billion in 1972 to a low of $2.4 billion in 1963. The 48-year trend of the index was unchanging with three notable high loss periods: 1950-1954| 1970-1974| and 1990-1994. 5415,2001,2,4,Maps of lands vulnerable to sea level rise: modeled elevations along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts,Understanding the broad-scale ramifications of accelerated sea level rise requires maps of the land that could be inundated or eroded. Producing such maps requires a combination of elevation information and models of shoreline erosion| wetland accretion| and other coastal processes. Assessments of coastal areas in the United States that combine all of these factors have focused on relatively small areas| usually 25 to 30 km wide. In many cases| the results are as sensitive to uncertainty regarding geological processes as to the rate of sea level rise. This paper presents maps illustrating the elevations of lands close to sea level. Although elevation contours do not necessarily coincide with future shorelines| the former is more transparent and less dependent on subjective modeling| Several methods are available for inferring elevations given limited data| This paper uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) 1degrees digital elevation series and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shoreline data to illustrate the land below the 1.5 and 3.5 m contours for areas the size of entire US states or larger| The maps imply that approximately 58 000 km(2) of land along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts lie below the 1.5 m contour. Louisiana| Florida| Texas| and North Carolina account fur more than 80% of the low land| Outside of those 4 states| the largest vulnerable populated region is the land along the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay stretching from Dorchester County| Maryland| to Accomac County| Virginia. 5671,2001,5,4,Mass extinction and bioevents across the Paleocene-Eocene boundary in the western Sinai| Egypt,This study discusses the general scenario of the P/E boundary events in the neritic to bathyal environment based mainly on the paleobathymetric distribution of the recorded taxa| as well as changes in paleoecology and paleoproductivity as observed in several sections of the Western Sinai. During the upper part of the Igorina pusilla pusilla Zone and the Globanomalina pseudomenardii Zone| a decrease in the P/B ratio is accompanied by well developed 'Midway-type' foraminiferal faunas with rare cosmopolitan bathyal species. They indicate a shallow marine environment and consequently a decrease in water productivity This decline in productivity was followed by a gradual increase due to a rise in the sea level during the Morozovella velascoensis Zone. Due to this rise of the sea level| representatives of the 'Midway-type' benthic fauna became scarce whereas the cosmopolitan bathyal forms became abundant. The oscillations in delta O-18 and delta C-13 values indicate a variations in the paleotemperature and an instability of the surface water productivity during the latest Paleocene. The increase in the temperature that matches well with the global warming in the latest Paleocene caused the extinction of many taxa. Only very few benthic foraminifera firstly occurred in the latest Paleocene and survived the P/E boundary event to become more abundant in the basal Eocene which is marked by a renewal of the benthic foraminiferal faunas by many incoming species. Rare Ostracodes are restricted to the Paleocene interval| but a few species appear in the uppermost Paleocene - lowermost Eocene. It seems that these South Tethyan ostracodes are less affected by the crisis at the P/E boundary.
5647,2001,2,4,Mass mortality event in red coral Corallium rubrum populations in the Provence region (France| NW Mediterranean),A mass mortality event of the red coral Corallium rubrum (L.) occur-red in the NW Mediterranean region in summer 1999. The main objectives of the present study were to document the mortality suffered by the red coral populations in the Provence region and assess ecological correlates of the mortality which could help to identify the putative agent or agents of the event. The mortality outbreak resulted in partial to complete loss of the coenenchyme. The first observations of red coral mortality in the study area were in early October 1999 and continued until November 1999| To determine the extent of mortality on red coral populations| the incidence (= % colonies suffering mortality) and the virulence [= % coenenchyme loss) were quantified. Twelve surveys were carried out from November 1999 to January 2000. A total of 874 colonies of the 2375 observed showed some mortality. Incidence and virulence differed significantly among surveys. In some cases about 80 % of the colonies were affected| while in others only 5 % of colonies showed some mortality. Depth had a strong influence on the incidence of mortality. Shallower populations had the greatest incidence| while populations deeper than 30 m depth showed no mortality. However| virulence was similar in the 10 to 30 m depth range. With regard to habitat| the entrances of caves displayed a significantly higher incidence but not virulence than the interiors. Given the life history traits of red coral (mainly slow growth and low recruitment)| it seems that recovery from the outbreak will be a long-term process. However| further studies are urgently required to provide basic information regarding red coral population dynamics as a basis for hypotheses on the actual recovery capability Of affected populations. The cause of the mass mortality is unknown. However| during late summer 1999| the NW Mediterranean area affected by the mass mortality event experienced high temperatures and hydrographic stability over a period of several weeks| This temperature anomaly could have caused physiological stress or/and triggered the development of pathogenic agents that otherwise would have remained non-virulent. This hypothesis is reinforced by the absence of signs of mass mortality below 30 m depth in red coral populations. Since the NW Mediterranean seems to be affected by the global warming trend| if the temperature hypothesis is confirmed| the long-term consequences of a repetition of this kind of event could severely endanger the persistence of shallow-water red coral populations. 5556,2001,2,4,Mathematical modelling of methane transport by Phragmites: the potential for diffusion within the roots and rhizosphere,The release of methane into the atmosphere by Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Steud. can be considered as a two-stage process. The first| a mainly diffusive movement through the rhizosphere from the anaerobic source regions of the soil and into and along the roots to the root-rhizome junction. The second| the removal of the gas from the root-rhizome junction to the atmosphere through the rhizome-culm system| a process often dominated by convective (pressurised) gas how This article addresses the first of these stages and is presented in isolation because of its perceived commonality to wetland plants in general. The model treats the root and its oxygenated rhizosphere as a series of concentric cylinders: two non-(or low) porosity stelar cylinders| a highly porous cortex| a non-porous epidermal/hypodermal cylinder and the rhizosphere itself. The methane source lies at the edge of the oxygenated rhizosphere the dimensions of which are determined by the integrated effects of oxygen consumption in root and rhizosphere (the latter including a methanotrophic element) and the diffusive impedances throughout the system. The results demonstrate something of the complexity of root-methane-oxygen relations. Methane entry from the rhizosphere is shown to vary along the length of any individual root and| as expected| methane oxidation within the rhizosphere is found to reduce the potential for methane loss to the atmosphere. Situations are also revealed: (i) when the methane concentration falls to zero within the rhizosphere because of aerobic microbial consumption supported by radial oxygen loss from the root| and (ii) where methane may enter the root at one point and escape to the rhizosphere at some other. In this latter case| methane concentration minima are possible within the rhizosphere supplied by methane fluxes from both the root and the bulk soil. Predictions of the quantities of methane which might be released via Phragmites roots to the atmosphere accord with examples of those previously reported from field data. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5630,2001,4,2,Measurements of methane emissions from landfills using a time correlation tracer method based on FTIR absorption spectroscopy,Methane is an important climate gas contributing significantly to global warming. A large part of the anthropogenic emissions of methane comes from landfills. Due to the biogenic origin of these emissions and the inhomogeneous characteristics of landfills and their soil cover| these emissions show large spatial variation. Thus| development of reliable and cost-effective methods for measurements of these emissions is an important task and a challenge to the scientific community. Traditionally| field chamber methods have been used but also different area integrating methods based on downwind plume measurements. These measurements have been supported by meteorological data either directly from local measurements or by controlled release of tracer gas from the landfill providing the dispersion characteristics of the plume. in this paper we describe a method| the Time Correlation Tracer method| combining controlled tracer gas release from the landfill with time-resolved concentration measurements downwind the landfill using FTIR absorption spectroscopy. The method has been tested and used on measurements at a landfill in southern Sweden over the past 1.5 years. The method has proven to be a usable method for measurements of total methane emission from landfills| and under favorable meteorological conditions we estimate an achievable accuracy of 15-30%. The real time analysis capability of the FTIR makes it possible to judge the success of the measurement already on site and to decide whether more measurements are necessary. The measurement strategy is relatively simple and straightforward| and one person can make a measurement from a medium sized landfill (1-4 ha) within a few days to a week depending on the meteorological situation. 5475,2001,3,4,Measurements of PVTx and saturation properties for the binary 1|1|1|2-tetrafluoroethane plus propane system,Natural refrigerants such as hydrocarbons (HCs) are considered as promising long-term alternatives in some of the restricted applications for refrigeration systems| since they have zero ozone depletion potential (ODP) values and negligible global warming potential (GWP) values. One of the crucial disadvantages of HCs| however| is flammability. For the purpose of solving this important issue| we have decided to study the thermodynamic properties of binary mixtures of HCs blended with. nonflammable HFC refrigerants. The present paper| therefore; aims to measure a set of reliable PVTx property data for the binary 1|1;1|2-tetrafluoroethane (R-134a) + propane (R-290) mixtures in two-phase and gas-phase regions. The experimental PVTx properties of the binary R-134a + R-290 system have been measured at four different compositions by a constant-volume method coupled with expansion procedures in an extensive range of temperatures from 312 K to 400 K| at pressures up to 6.1 MPa| and for densities up to 196 kg.m(-3)| respectively. The present study also aims to determine the dew-point pressures and the saturated-vapor densities of the present binary mixtures so as to develop a virial equation of state in the gaseous phase of the binary R-134a + R-290 system. 5564,2001,3,3,Measuring spatially resolved gas transport and adsorption in coal using MRI,The storage and transport of gases in coal is of tremendous importance in the utilisation of coalbeds| and in particular the recovery of methane. There is also increasing interest in the use of coal mines as sites for carbon dioxide sequestration to alleviate the potentially harmful effects of global warming. This paper demonstrates the use of magnetic resonance imaging to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of gas transport in coal. The presence of significant structural heterogeneities in the coal was observed. Dynamical effects displayed a broad range of time constants ranging from minutes to days. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. 5493,2001,2,3,Mechanisms determining the Atlantic thermohaline circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in a non-flux-adjusted coupled climate model,Models of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) show a range of responses to the high-latitude warming and freshening characteristic of global warming scenarios. Most simulate a weakening of the THC| with some suggesting possible interruption of the circulation| but others exhibit little change. The mechanisms of the THC response to climate change using the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model| which gives a good simulation of the present-day THC and does not require flux adjustment| were studied. In a range of climate change simulations| the strength of the THC in HadCM3 is proportional to the meridional gradient of steric height (equivalent to column-integrated density) between 30 degreesS and 60 degreesN. During an integration in which CO| increases at 2% per year for 70 yr| the THC weakens by about 20%| and it stabilizes at this level if the CO| is subsequently held constant. Changes in surface heat and water fluxes are the cause of the reduction in the steric height gradient that derives the THC weakening| 60% being due to temperature change (greater warming at high latitudes) and 40% to salinity change (decreasing at high latitude| increasing at low latitude). The level at which the THC stabilizes is determined by advective feedbacks. As the circulation slows down| less heat is advected northward| which counteracts the in situ warming. At the same time| northward salinity advection increases because of a strong increase in salinity in the subtropical Atlantic| due to a greater atmospheric export of freshwater from the Atlantic to the Pacific. This change in interbasin transport means that salinity effects stabilize the circulation| in contrast to a single basin model of the THC| where salinity effects are destabilizing. These results suggest that the response of the Atlantic THC to anthropogenic forcing may be partly determined by events occurring outside the Atlantic basin. 5549,2001,4,4,Mechanisms for pollutant transport between the boundary layer and the free troposphere,Pollutants are longer-lived in the free troposphere than the boundary layer| hence the transport of pollutants from the boundary layer to the free troposphere has significant implications for long-range transport and global warming. It is important to quantify the transport of air between the boundary layer and the free troposphere and to understand the role different meteorological mechanisms play| Idealised passive tracer experiments| with tracer initially only in the boundary layer| are performed in a numerical model for three case study days with different synoptic conditions. After 24 hours| more than 50% of the tracer resides in the free troposphere for the two frontal cases| and 40% resides there for the high-pressure case. The tracer was transported to maximum heights of 8 km| To elucidate the role of different mechanisms for each case| the tracer amount transported by advection only| advection and turbulent mixing| and advection and convection was calculated. Advection is found to be the most important mechanism in transporting the tracer to the free troposphere; however| the addition of upright convection and turbulent mixing increases the amount by up to 24% with convection transporting the tracer to heights of 5 km. The inclusion of convection and turbulent mixing to the advection are not linearly additive processes. This study shows the possibility of a large proportion of the pollutant emitted in the boundary layer being transported to the free troposphere in a short time and the importance of representing all the meteorological processes. 5442,2001,2,4,Meltwater and the global ocean conveyor: northern versus southern connections,The sensitivity of the ocean circulation to changes in North Atlantic surface fluxes has become a major factor in explaining climate variability. The role of the Antarctic Bottom Water in modulating this variability has received much less attention| limiting the development of a complete understanding of decadal to millennial time-scale climate change. New analyses indicate that the southern deepwater source may change dramatically (e.g.| experience a decrease of as much as two thirds during last 800 years). Such change can substantially alter the ocean circulation patterns of the last millennium. Additional analyses indicate that the Southern Hemisphere led the Northern Hemisphere changes in some of the glacial cycles of Pleistocene| implying a seesaw-type oscillation of the global ocean conveyor. The potential for melting of sea ice and ice sheets in the Antarctica associated with global warming can cause a further slowdown of the southern deepwater source. These results demand an assessment of the role of the Southern Ocean in driving changes of the global ocean circulation and climate. Systematic model simulation targeting the ocean circulation response to changes in surface salinity in the high latitudes of both Northern and Southern Hemispheres demonstrate that meltwater impacts in one hemisphere may lead to a strengthening of the thermohaline conveyor driven by the source in the opposite hemisphere. This| in turn| leads to significant changes in poleward heat transport. Further| meltwater events can lead to deep-sea warming and thermal expansion of abyssal water| that in turn cause a substantial sea-level change even without a major ice sheet melting. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5665,2001,3,3,Methane emissions from wastewater management,Greenhouse gas emissions in the form of methane and carbon dioxide are produced when municipal and industrial wastewater and their residual solid by-product (sludge) are handled under or subject to anaerobic conditions| thus contributing to the global warming potential or the greenhouse effect. This paper presents estimation methods used for determining methane emissions from the management of wastewater. Applications for estimating countrywide methane gas emissions from wastewater management are presented with the country of Lebanon as an example. The relative significance of these emissions is assessed in comparison with methane emissions from developing and developed countries. Uncertainty associated with the estimation process and mitigation measures to reduce potential impacts of methane emissions from wastewater management are also discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2987,2001,3,3,Methane hydrates potential as a future energy source,Gas hydrates are crystalline solids that form from mixtures of water and light natural gases such as methane| carbon dioxide| ethane| propane and butane. They are of considerable interest for their potential as an energy resource and for their potential role in global climate change. From an energy resource point of view| the enormous amounts of methane hydrate under the ocean and beneath arctic permafrost represent an estimated 53% of all fossil fuel (coal| oil| natural gas) reserves on earth| about 10|000 gigatons. The difficulty with recovering this source of energy is that the fuel is in solid form and is not amenable to conventional gas and oil recovery techniques. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2974,2001,3,2,Mitigating climate change with renewable and high-efficiency generation,This paper focuses on the status of policy studies on Global Climate Change and how renewable and high-efficiency generation technology can be part of the solution. It considers critical technologies and solutions toward realizing the targets set in the Kyoto treaty. Discussed is energy efficiency in power generation| environmental benefits of high-efficiency gas turbines in competitive energy markets which display less NOx and CO2 emissions per unit of power produced while providing power generators with the most competitive electricity| and experience in India in mitigating climate change with renewable energy as seen by the UN and an advisor to the Indian government in nonconventional energy sources. Also discussed is stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere that will present dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system as called for under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 5449,2001,3,4,Mitigation strategies using different methodologies to compare greenhouse gases,Mitigation strategies for greenhouse gases (GHG) developed by using the PERSEUS-NAT model for Germany are presented. The model covers all relevant GHG emitting sectors in a bottom-up approach| thus making it possible to elaborate consistent| notional reduction strategies. The model results show that in the case without emission restrictions the CO2 emissions will decrease until the year 2010 due to a fuel switch to natural gas. After the year 2010 the CO2 emissions will rise because of increasing natural gas prices which are assumed in manyforecasts. As a result of these gas prices| hard coal power plants using imported coal are the most economical option to satisfy base load electricity demand. If CO2 reduction targets are introduced| one of the Most important reduction option in the electricity sector is to substitute natural gas for hard coal. This gas will especially be used in modem combined cycle power plants. Large CO2 reduction potentials can also be opened up by a rigorous realisation of insulation measures and the installation of natural gas condensing boilers. Taking into account other greenhouse gases the results vary strongly in reliance on the method used to compare the different gases (Global Warming Potential method or Radiative Forcing method). 3046,2001,3,2,Modelling long-term C dynamics in croplands in the context of climate change: a case study from Ohio,A simple dynamic model (CBUDGET) was developed to quantify long-term carbon (C) dynamics in croplands. By using independent datasets (on continuous wheat) from the Waite Permanent Rotation Trial (Australia) and from Northwest Ohio| the tests of its performance resulted in R-2 values of 0.85 and 0.80| respectively| between observed and simulated values. Our model suggests that the rate of residual C addition into the soil is the primary factor that controls soil organic carbon (SOC) storage for Ohio croplands under continuous corn| wheat and oats for the period 1866-1996 and continuous soybean for the period of 1924-1996. The interaction of CO2-fertilization and a temperature increase of 0.5 degreesC decreased mean SOC levels for the selected crops over the same periods. A multiple linear regression model (MLR) relating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to population growth| affluence and energy intensity with an R-2 of 0.99 indicates the significance of underlying causes of anticipated climate change. The MLR model thus serves to capture a more complete picture of anthropogenic sources of global climate change than considering agricultural activities only in exploring locally and regionally mitigative and preventive measures towards global climatic stability. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 3028,2001,4,4,Modelling respiration of vegetation: evidence for a general temperature-dependent Q(10),Temperature responses of rates of respiratory CO2 efflux from plants| soils| and ecosystems are frequently modelled using exponential functions with a constant Q(10) near 2.0 (fractional change in rate with a 10 degreesC increase in temperature). However| we present evidence that Q(10) declines with short-term increases in temperature in a predictable manner across diverse plant taxa. Thus| models using a constant Q(10) are biased| and use of a temperature-corrected Q(10) may improve the accuracy of modelled respiratory CO2 efflux in plants and ecosystems in response to temperature and predicted global climate changes. 5631,2001,2,3,Modelling the variability of the sea-ice conditions in the Baltic Sea under different climate conditions,The present and future ice conditions around 100 years from present in the Baltic Sea are examined h two 10 year integrations of an ice-ocean model. Results from atmospheric climate-model simulations constitute the atmospheric forcing| one representing present climate conditions (control simulation.)| and the other global warming due to CO2 doubling (scenario simulation). The present-day climatological ice conditions and the interannual variability were realistically reproduced by the ice-ocean model. The modelled range of the maximum annual ice extent in the Baltic was 190 420 x 10(3) km(2) the control simulation and 50 270 x 10(3) km(2) in the scenario simulation. The range of the annual maximum level-ice thickness was 45-85 and 20-58 cm in the control and scenario simulations| respectively. 5624,2001,2,4,Monitoring trace gas fluxes (N(2)O| CH(4)) from different soils under the same climatic conditions and the same agricultural management,In order to determine the effects of soil type on flux rates of N(2)O and CH(4) a 43-months field experiment with undisturbed soil monoliths (2 in height| 1 m(2) surface) was carried out. Four replicates of three sites in southern Germany were installed in a lysimeter station near Munich. All sites formerly were used as arable fields. The soil types varied in texture| gravel| pH and C and N content. The most important factor in this investigation was to expose the different soil types to the same climatic conditions and to the same agricultural management. Despite of the same conditions differences in both N(2)O and CH(4) flux rates were found. Annual N(2)O emissions ranged from 0.3 to 2 kg N(2)O-N ha(-1)a(-1) and CH(4) uptakes ranged from -1.13 to -0.59 kg CH(4)-C ha(-1)a(-1). N(2)O emissions from 'Hohenwart' were 7 times higher than the emissions measured from 'Kelheim'. Furthermore| the CH(4) uptakes from 'Kelheim' were 4.5 times higher than the 'Hohenwart' measurements. Calculating the global warming potential (GWP) as CO(2)-equivalents from N(2)O and CH(4) fluxes of the investigated soils the atmospherical load from 'Kelheim' was 75+/-91| from 'Scheyern' it was 468+/-119 and from 'Hohenwart' it was 611+/-192 kg CO(2) ha(-1)a(-1). 3007,2001,2,4,Morphophysiological and population adaptations of Ajuga reptans L. at the northern boundary of its range,The results of comprehensive morphophysiological and population studies on Ajuga reptans L.| a species of the nemoral floristic complex| at the northern boundary of its range (in the middle taiga subzone of the Komi Republic) are reviewed. Adaptations at the cell| organism| and biocenotic levels are revealed. The maintenance and survival of the species at the boundary of its range are provided for by its physiological plasticity| resistance to low temperatures| and multiple variants of ontogeny. Prognosis of Ajuga reptans future status under conditions of global climate change and expansion of anthropogenically disturbed areas is favorable. 3041,2001,5,4,Multiwave XRF-SR determination of U and Th in bottom sediments of Lake Baikal: Brunhes paleoclimatic chronology,The paper presents a new method of U and Th determination in bottom sediments implying synchrotron radiation with monochromatic beams at different energies| registration| and iterative Joint processing of the resultant XRF (X-ray fluorescent) spectra series| The validity of the new method was proved by comparison of U and Th determinations by XRF-SR in different sediment samples with earlier INAA and ICP-MS results for the same samples. Profiles of U and Th were measured at the sampling rate of 2 ka in a drilling core (BDP-96-2) of bottom sediments from Lake Baikal deposited 40 to 780 ka BP. Oscillations of U contents and U/Th ratios record global climate change throughout the Brunhes epoch (780 ka BP)| and the response of these "warm" proxies is similar to that observed earlier in shorter cores spanning the last two interglacials (220-0 ka BP). 5424,2001,3,3,N2O emissions from true meadows dependent on location and N fertilization,Agricultural production is thought to be a main anthropogenic emitter of nitrous oxide (N2O)| which contributes to global warming and the destruction of the ozone layer. There is still considerable uncertainty about the amount of N2O emission| and the site-specific parameters that affect N2O emission. From October 1995 until March 1998 experiments were conducted at established field plots (true meadows) at three different sites| i.e. low mountain range (Eifel)| lowland (Niederrhein)| and moist meadows (Munsterland). Plots were fertilized with calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) at nitrogen equivalents ranging from 0 to 360 kg N ha(-1). N2O fluxes were measured throughout the whole year using the closed-chamber method. In addition| data on temperature| water-filled pore space and precipitation were collected. N2O emission rates (mg N2O-N ha(-1) h(-1)) were highest either after fertilizer application or in winter during frost| depending on the experimental site and N dosage. The annual amount of N losses clue to N2O emission was dependent on the experimental site and the type and dosage of fertilizer. Disregarding the 360 kg N ha (1) level of the CAN treatments| the N losses in this experiment were less than 1.5 kg N2O-N ha (1) yr (1). At low fertilizer dosage there was no reliable correlation between the amount of N that was applied and the amount of N2O that was emitted. However| with high fertilizer levels the N2O emissions increased gradually. Finally| N2O emissions were more influenced by the amount of CAN than by the site. 2971,2001,2,2,National Environment Health Association position global climate change,The impact of greenhouse gas emissions on both human beings and the global climate has been greatly debated in recent years (1). According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)| there has been a documented increase in global temperature measurements of 0.3[degrees] to 0.6[degrees]C over the last century (2). Further| a recent report from the National Research Council underscores the importance of anthropogenic (man-made) aerosols as agents of climate change (3| 4). Purpose. The National Environmental Health Association (NEHA) supports the precept that anthropogenic sources| specifically greenhouse gases| are responsible for a significant portion of the measured change in global climate. Further| NEHA supports the concept of an association between global warming and an increased risk to public health. Reducing the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere will benefit human health. This position paper reviews current information on the status of global climate change with particular emphasis on the implications for environmental and public health. It is intended to be used as a basis from which environmental and public health practitioners and colleagues in related fields can initiate discussions with policy makers at all levels--local| state| national| and worldwide.
5576,2001,2,4,Natural fire frequency for the eastern Canadian boreal forest: consequences for sustainable forestry,Given that fire is the most important disturbance of the boreal forest| climatically induced changes in fire frequency (i.e.| area burnt per year) can have important consequences on the resulting forest mosaic age-class distribution and composition. Using archives and dendroecological data we reconstructed the fire frequency in four large sectors along a transect from eastern Ontario to central Quebec. Results showed a dramatic decrease in fire frequency that began in the mid-19th century and has been accentuated during the 20th century. Although all areas showed a similar temporal decrease in area burned| we observed a gradual increase in fire frequency from the west to Abitibi east| followed by a slight decrease in central Quebec. The global warming that has been occurring since the end of the Little Ice Age (similar to 1850) may have created a climate less prone to large forest fires in the eastern boreal forest of North America. This interpretation is corroborated by predictions of a decrease in forest fires for that region of the boreal forest in the future. A longer fire cycle (i.e.| the time needed to burn an area equivalent to the study area) has important consequences for sustainable forest management of the boreal forest of eastern Canada. When considering the important proportion of overmature and old-growth stands in the landscape resulting from the elongation of the fire cycles| it becomes difficult to justify clear-cutting practices over all the entire area as well as short rotations as a means to emulate natural disturbances. Alternative practices involving the uses of variable proportion of clear| partial| and selective cutting are discussed. 5617,2001,2,4,Newly emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases,Infectious diseases are still dramatically affecting public health in global dimensions| in spite of the success of the 20th century medicine. Viruses represent the most serious threat for the future from the point of view of prevention as well as therapy| considering their ability to change rapidly their genetic information. Bacteria are also capable of mutation and acquisition of new genetic information from other bacteria| enabling them to generate new factors of virulence and to cause diseases with new clinical symptoms. Microorganisms acquire genes providing them with resistance to antimicrobial drugs and disinfectants| as well as with possibilities to create new antigens that affect both prevention and therapy| There is a reappearance of illnesses| such as diphtheria| which had been steadily receding in the second half of the last century. Changing lifestyle is another factor contributing to the increased spreading of infections. New diagnostic problems appear as the result of changing methods of food production and dietary habits in industrialised countries| accompanied with malnutrition in others| as well as of world-wide travel| contacts with new pathogens| life in overcrowded cities| industrial development| exploitation of natural resources| global warming and increasing number of immunocompromised people. Medical research discovered relations between well-known diseases (atherosclerosis| arthritis) and infectious agents. This resulted in changes in the approach to their prevention and treatment. Therefore| medicine in Slovakia needs to update knowledge of the occurrence of new and re-emerging infectious diseases both in Slovakia and abroad| and to organise their diagnostics in laboratories of clinical microbiology. 5633,2001,4,3,Nitrous oxide production and flux from soil under sod following application of different nitrogen fertilizers,Concern over contribution of nitrous oxide (N2O) to global warming and stratospheric ozone depletion has prompted measurement of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agricultural soils and study of controlling factors. The objectives of this study were (1) to measure the magnitude of N2O emissions from application of (NH4)(2)SO4| Ca(NO3)(2) or urea teach at 100 kg N/ha) to a Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis L.) stand| and (2) to compare flux of N2O from the surface measured with covers to N2O production and denitrification in soil cores collected at a depth of 2.5 -7.5 cm. Water| NH4+ and NO3 contents of soil cores were also measured. Application of all three fertilizers increased N2O production by soil cores| and N2O flux from covers. The two measurements differed in temporal pattern and magnitude. Flux of N2O from the soil surface is a more complex and variable process than N2O production in a specific soil layer. The possibility of increased N2O production with urea requires further investigation under more controlled conditions. Nitrification of NH4+ appeared to be the principal source of N2O. 2955,2001,2,4,Northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) abundance in relation to yearly weather and long-term climate patterns,We used a multilayered| backpropagation neural network to investigate the relative effects of yearly weather and long-term climate patterns on the abundance of northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus: hereafter| bobwhite) in Oklahoma| USA. Bobwhite populations have been declining for several decades across the United States| and predicted global climate change might accelerate the rate of decline. We were interested in whether bobwhite abundance was more responsive to yearly precipitation and temperature| or to annual deviations from long-term mean climate patterns. We used roadside count data collected over a 6 year period (1991-1997) by the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation as a measure of bobwhite abundance. We standardized quail counts among counties by calculating the standard normal deviate for each county. Weather data were obtained from weather stations closest to the roadside-count route. We had 280 training cases and 68 test-validation cases. Two data sets were constructed: one using yearly weather data (actual rainfall and temperature) and the second using annual deviations from long-term mean values. We conducted simulation analyses to determine the nature of the relationship between each dependent variable and the standardized bobwhite counts. A neural network with eight neurons was most efficient for the yearly weather data| accounting for 25% of the variation in the training data. The adjusted sum-of-squares for this model was 2.42. A four-neuron network was selected for the deviation-from-normal data set| accounting for 23% of the variation in the training data. The adjusted sum-of-squares for the deviation model was 1.44| indicating it performed better than the model for yearly weather patterns. Deviation from long-term mean July and August temperatures combined contributed 31.5% to the climate network's predictions| and deviations from mean winter| spring| and summer precipitation combined contributed 42.8% to the network's predictions. As July temperature increased over the long-term mean| the number of bobwhites counted increased over the route mean| but the relationship decelerated at high July temperatures. Predicted increases in bobwhites counted were highest when August temperatures were below the mean and decreased rapidly for all temperatures greater than the mean. Predicted bobwhite counts increased asymptotically as winter rain increased over the long-term mean| but were greatest at mean spring-rainfall amounts and at below average amounts of summer rainfall. We conclude that the absolute changes in yearly weather pattern predicted by some global change models will not have as great an impact on bobwhite abundance as will the magnitude of the deviations of these values from the climate bobwhites are adapted to in this portion of their range. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2980,2001,2,2,Numerical investigations of future ice conditions in the Baltic Sea,Global climate change is expected to have an effect on the physical and ecological characteristics of the Baltic Sea. Estimates of future climate on the regional scale can be obtained by using either statistical or dynamical downscaling methods of global AOGCM scenario results. In this paper| we use 2 different coupled ice-ocean models of the Baltic Sea to simulate present and future ice conditions around 100 years from present. Two 10-year time slice experiments have been performed using the results of atmospheric climate model simulations as forcing| one representing pre-industrial climate conditions (control simulation)| and the other global warming with a 150% increase in CO2 greenhouse gas concentration (scenario simulation). Present-day climatological ice conditions and interannual variability are realistically reproduced by the models. The simulated range of the maximum annual ice extent in the Baltic in both models together is 180 to 420.10(3) km(2) in the control simulation and 45 to 270.10(3) km(2) in the scenario simulation. The range of the maximum annual ice thickness is from 32 to 96 cm and from 11 to 60 cm in the control and scenario simulations| respectively. In contrast to earlier estimates| sea ice is still formed every winter in the Northern Bothnian Bay and in the most Eastern parts of the Gulf of Finland. Overall| the simulated changes of quantities such as ice extent and ice thickness| as well as their interannual variations are relatively similar in both models| which is remarkable| because the 2 coupled ice-ocean model systems have been. developed independently. This increases the reliability of future projections of ice conditions in the Baltic Sea. 5410,2001,3,4,Nutritional manipulation of methanogenesis in ruminants,The concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are rising at a rapid rate which the human race has not experienced up to now. Methane is the important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide is the gas now being paid most attention. Feeds ingested by herbivores include structural carbohydrates in the cell walls of plants. These polysaccharides are not digestible by digestive enzymes secreted from alimentary canal. However| many prokaryotic and enkaryotic bacteria synthesize enzyme complexes capable of degrading them efficiently| In consequence| huge amount of acetate and hydrogen are produced by the oxidation of pyruvate. It has been shown that hydrogen is a principal substrate for rumen methanogenesis by relating the rate of production of methane in rumen fluid. Thus| high digestibility of fibrous materials may result in high methane emission from enteric fermentation. Intensive research efforts have been directed towards the discovery of chemical agents which will modulate ruminal fermentation to improve feed efficiency. It is worth noting that overall the complex ecological system of the rumen works efficiently| particularly with aspect to cellulolysis. Therefore| our attempt to modify methane production should be selective and cause minimum disturbance to the rest of the rumen fermentation. In our efforts to seek natural manipulators which have a suppressing effect on rumen methanogenesis| prophylactic effects of sulphur containing amino acid| some plant extracts and probiotics on rumen methanogenesis have been studied in vitro and in vivo. 5446,2001,2,3,Observed and SST-forced seasonal rainfall variability across tropical America,Three experiments starting from different initial conditions have been made with the ECHAM-4 atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) integrated at T30 resolution forced with the observed sea-surface temperature (SST) over the period 1960-1994. The tropical America modes of seasonal rainfall anomalies whose time variation is most accurately simulated by the GCM have been searched for using Singular Value Decomposition Analyses (SVDA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) between observed and model fields. The leading modes revealed by SVDA and CCA are highly similar| even though the ordering of the modes showed some fluctuation. A first skilful rainfall anomaly mode has weights of the same sign almost everywhere in tropical America. except along the western coast and the sub-tropical margins. This mode appears in all of the four seasons assessed. A second major skilful mode is usually a bipolar north-south (N-S) rainfall anomaly pattern (clear in December-March| DJFM: March-May| MAM| and June-September. JJAS). A large portion of the skill of the first rainfall anomaly mode (same sign anomalies across tropical America except small patches along the western coast) is through variance that is in common with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). In addition to forcing from the central/eastern tropical Pacific SST. there also appears a contribution from contrasting SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. This rainfall mode is usually a regional portion of a more large-scale mode encompassing at least the whole tropical zone (especially in DJFM| MAM and September-November. SON). Analysis of the relationship of this mode with GCM circulation features reveals that a rainfall deficit (respectively excedent) over the main rainbelt of the tropical America region is associated with strengthening (respectively weakening) of the sub-tropical westerly jet streams| a global warming (respectively cooling) of the tropical atmosphere. an anomalous divergence (respectively convergence) in the lower levels and an anomalous convergence (respectively divergence) in the upper levels over tropical America and in the region of the Atlantic Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Such global features are not so apparent for the dominant mode of JJAS. even though the correlations with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators (as SOI or NINO3 SST index) are as high as for the other seasons. The bipolar N-S rainfall anomaly mode in tropical America is mostly related to anomalous N-S gradient of SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. The atmospheric circulation anomalies emphasize changes in 850 hPa meridional winds in the tropical Atlantic. However| there is also interannual variance of this rainfall mode in both the model and observations that is unexplained by tropical Atlantic SSTs| but which is explained by central/eastern tropical Pacific SSTs and| potentially| SSTs from other tropical and extratropical areas. This is especially true in MAM. Some differences in the details of the model and observed teleconnection patterns are noted. Such differences can be used to statistically adjust the model simulations using the CCA or SVDA modes as basis patterns. Both statistical approaches have been applied and the results are consistent between the two| The increase of skill is stronger when temporal correlation (the pattern correlation) between the model and observed pattern is high (low) as for JJAS. The skill is moderate to high around the whole Amazon basin. but remains relatively low inside the Amazon basin| though reliability of the observations themselves may influence this result. Averaged over all the seasons| about 15-35% (35-55%) of the interannual grid-box (regional) seasonal rainfall variance is skilfully simulated from the observed SST forcing. Copyright (C) 2001 Royal Meteorological Society. 5476,2001,4,4,Oceanographic research vessel Keifu Maru,The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) built a new oceanographic research vessel Keifu Maru in order to enhance the monitoring activities related to global environmental issues including climate change and global warming. Particular attention is focused on the role of the ocean in the climate change. The R/V Keifu Maru is specially equipped with the towed CTD system| which allows making measurements of upper ocean temperature and salinity underway| and the measuring system of carbon dioxide concentrations in the air and the sea surface water. 5626,2001,4,4,On the definition of a heat wave,Heat waves are a major cause of weather-related deaths. With the current concern for global warming it is reasonable to suppose that they may increase in frequency| severity| duration| or areal extent in the future. However| in the absence of an adequate definition of a heat wave| it is impossible to assess either changes in the past or possible consequences for the future. A set of definitions is proposed here| based on the criteria for heat stress forecasts developed by the National Weather Service (NWS). Watches or warnings are issued when thresholds of daytime high and nighttime low heat index (H-i) values are exceeded for at least two consecutive days. The heat index is a combination of ambient temperature and humidity that approximates the environmental aspect of the thermal regime of a human body| with the NWS thresholds representing a generalized estimate of the onset of physiological stress. These thresholds cannot be applied directly nationwide. In hot and humid regions| physical| social| and cultural adaptations will require that the thresholds be set higher to ensure that only those events perceived as stressful are identified. In other| cooler| areas the NWS criteria may never be reached even though unusually hot events may be perceived as heat waves. Thus| it is likely that a similar number of perceived heat events will occur in all regions| with the thresholds varying regionally. Hourly H-i for 178 stations in the coterminous United States was analyzed for the 1951-90 period to determine appropriate threshold criteria. Use of the NWS criteria alone indicated that much of the nation had less than three heat waves per decade| and this value was adopted as the baseline against which to establish suitable thresholds. For all areas| a percentile threshold approach was tested. Using all available data| daytime high and nighttime low thresholds were established separately for each specific percentile. Heat waves were treated as occurring when conditions exceeded both the daytime high and the nighttime low thresholds of the same percentile for two consecutive days. Several thresholds were tested. For much of the South| 1% thresholds produced appropriate values. Consequently| a heat wave was defined as a period of at least 48 h during which neither the overnight low nor the daytime high H-i falls below the NWS heat stress thresholds (80 degrees and 105 degreesF| respectively)| except at stations for which more than 1% of both the annual high and low H-i observations exceed these thresholds| in which case the 1% values are used as the heat wave thresholds. As an extension| "hot spells'' were similarly defined| but for events falling between the 1% values and NWS thresholds| with "warm spells'' occurring between the 2% and 1% values. Again| stations for which the 1% or 2% H-i values exceed the NWS thresholds were given modified definitions. The preliminary investigation of the timing and location of heat waves resulting from these definitions indicated that they correctly identified major epidemiological events. A tentative climatic comparison also suggests that heat waves are becoming less frequent in the southern and more frequent in the midwestern and eastern parts of the nation. 5467,2001,3,3,Oxidative conversion of PFC via plasma processing with dielectric barrier discharges,Perfluorocompounds (PFCs) have been extensively used as plasma etching and chemical vapor deposition (CVD) gases for semiconductor manufacturing processes. PFCs have significant effects on the global warming and have very long atmospheric lifetimes. Laboratory-scale experiments were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of CF4 conversion by using dielectric barrier discharges (DBD). The results of this study revealed that the removal efficiency of CF4 increased with application of higher voltage| gas residence lime| oxygen content| and frequency. Combined plasma catalysis (CPC) is an innovative way for abatement of PFC and experimental results indicated that combining plasma with catalysts could effectively remove CF4. Products were analyzed by Fourier transform-infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and the major products of the CF4 processing with DBD were CO2| COF2| and CO| when O was included in the discharge process. Preliminary results indicated that as high as 65.9% of CF4|vas decomposed with CPC operated at 15 kV| 240 Hz for the gas stream containing 300 ppmv CF4| 20% by volume O-2| and 40% by volume Ar| with N-2 as the carrier gas. 5555,2001,3,3,Oxynitridation of silicon with nitrogen plasma for flash memory applications characterized by high frequency capacitance-voltage measurements,Si(100) wafers were oxynitrided by nitrogen plasma exposure under different conditions and thermally oxidized in dry O-2 without the use of toxic or global warming gases. The atomic concentration ratio of N/Si was 0.075 at a plasma discharge power of 0.5 kW and an exposure time of 1 min and 0.176 at a plasma power of 2.0 kW and an exposure time of 3 min| as determined from X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements. A progressive reduction in the oxidation rate with increasing N concentration| corresponding to an increase in N plasma power| was observed. The uniformity of film thickness over a 4-inch wafer was improved after nitrogen plasma exposure and rapid thermal oxidation| with a thickness variation of less than 2.6% compared with 13.2% for the N2O thermal oxidation process. The advantages of exposing Si to N plasma for application in silicon devices was investigated by high-frequency capacitance-voltage measurements. A distortion in the capacitance-voltage curve was observed for samples that did not undergo nitridation| a distortion that was not observed in the nitrided samples. Capacitance-voltage curve distortion was found to be significantly reduced by Si nitridation under low plasma power. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5460,2001,3,4,P rho Tx measurements for gas-phase pentafluoroethane plus propane mixtures by the Burnett method,In some refrigeration-based applications| hydrocarbons (HCs) are expected to be promising long-term alternative refrigerants because of their zero ozone depletion potential (ODP) and negligible global warming potential (GWP) values. But there exists a serious disadvantage that they are flammable. Despite their flammability| however| commercial demands for HCs are increasing not only in several European countries but also in southeast Asia. On the other hand| the flammability is considered a major issue in U.S.A. and Japan. To suppress the flammability| blended mixtures of HCs with nonflammable HFCs are considered. As one of such mixtures| pentafluoroethane (R-125) and propane (R-290) mixtures are dealt with in the present study. Although the thermodynamic properties of each single component have been studied rather extensively| there is no study reported on those of this binary system. Accordingly| we have measured the gas-phase P rho Tx properties of the binary R-125 (1) + R-290 (2) system by using the Burnett isothermal -isochoric coupling method. The present measurements cover an extensive range of temperatures (305 to 380 K)| pressures up to 4.5 MPa| and densities up to 2.5 mol.dm(-3) for the binary systems with four different mole fractions of x(1) = 0.00| 0.29| 0.50| and 0.75| respectively. The present paper discusses the gas-phase P rho Tx properties for the first time regarding the present binary mixtures at their selected compositions. 5501,2001,5,3,Paleobiogeography of Pseudotextularia elegans during the latest Maastrichtian global warming event,A latest Maastrichtian global warming event| which began approximately 450 k.y. and ended about 22 k.y. prior to the K/T boundary| is associated with the poleward migration of the warm-water planktonic foraminifer Pseudotextularia elegans. The warming event was apparently inititated by greenhouse warming due to the main outpouring of the Deccan Traps in India and is now well documented in the North and South Atlantic Oceans and in North America by the poleward migration of warm-water planktonic foraminifera and subtropical vegetation. A cooling trend ca 22 kyr prior to the K/T boundary caused marine delta O-18 values to return to climatic conditions recorded prior to the onset of warming and thus does not represent a significant change in long-term climate. Planktonic foraminifera responded by migration to the latest Maastrichtian global warming and cooling before their mass extinction at the K/T. 5513,2001,5,4,Paleobotanical evidence for near present-day levels of atmospheric CO2 during part of the tertiary,Understanding the Link between the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) and Earth's temperature underpins much of paleoclimatology and our predictions of future global warming. Here| we use the inverse relationship between Leaf stomatal indices and the partial pressure of CO2 in modern Ginkgo biloba and Metasequoia glyptostroboides to develop a CO2 reconstruction based on fossil Ginkgo and Metaseguoia cuticles for the middle Paleocene to early Eocene and middle Miocene. Our reconstruction indicates that CO2 remained between 300 and 450 parts per million by volume for these intervals with the exception of a single high estimate near the Paleocene/Eocene boundary. These results suggest that factors in addition to CO2 are required to explain these past intervals of global warmth. 3015,2001,5,4,Paleoecology of an exceptionally preserved arthropod fauna from lake deposits of the Miocene Barstow Formation| southern California| USA,A unique aquatic arthropod Konservat Lagerstatte occurs in Lacustrine-derived carbonate concretions within the Miocene Barstow Formation| of southern California. Faunal elements are primarily aquatic| salinity-tolerant| autochthonous predaceous diving beetle larvae| fly Larvae and pupae| mosquito and thrip larvae| and fairy shrimp. Three-dimensional preservation of soft tissues is via replacement by silica-based minerals as well as calcite| celestite| apatite| and gypsum. The fauna occurs in three beds (each 1-3 m thick) within an approximately 100 m sequence of predominantly microlaminated mudstone deposited in a saline-alkaline lacustrine environment. Faunal composition is consistent between sites and concretion beds| but faunal composition and diversity changed significantly during lake history| corresponding to differences in brine chemistry as well as preservational facies| resulting from the shift toward a more nearshore regime. The changes in lake chemistry and subsequent changes in fauna indicate lake shallowing as well as regional and global climate change towards greater aridity during the Miocene that also is coincident with regional uplift. 2985,2001,3,3,Particle transformations and export flux during an in situ iron-stimulated algal bloom in the Southern Ocean,During the first Southern Ocean Iron RElease Experiment (SOIREE)| a suite of biogeochemical measurements (water column (234)Th and delta (13)C(org) inventories| particle fluxes from sediment traps| phytoplankton sinking rates) were undertaken to test the hypothesis that the vertical export of particulate organic carbon (POC) is enhanced due to iron-induced increases in phytoplankton production. During the 13-days that the SOIREE bloom was monitored| export fluxes within the iron-fertilised patch were not substantially different to those in waters outside the bloom. On days 11-13| iron enrichment may have caused particle transformations that could lead to elevated future export via particle aggregation and/or diatom chain formation. The unknown time-lag between increased production and export| the longevity of the SOIREE bloom| and the absence of nutrient limitation over days 1-13| however| prohibit prediction of any iron-induced export. This conclusion highlights the difficulties of fully testing the "Iron Hypothesis" and for evaluating the implications for global climate change. 5591,2001,4,3,Performance of RegCM2.5/NCAR-CSM nested system for the simulation of climate change in East Asia caused by global warming,Regional climate in East Asia under 1CO(2) and 2CO(2) conditions| was simulated for continuous 10-year periods by the RegCM2.5 developed by NCAR| using the output of a CO2 transient run from NCAR-CSM as lateral and surface boundary conditions in order to evaluate the performance of the nested system for the use of climate change simulation caused by global warming for that region. In this study| January and June climates were analyzed. Through the validation of the simulated present climate| it was clarified that the typical precipitation phenomenon which occurs on the northwestern side of Japan during the winter monsoon is relatively well reproduced in the RegCM| but weakly in the CSM. It indicates that the RegCM. is essential for the prediction of regional climate change for the East Asia region. Although the present climate reproduced by the RegCM has some marked biases| e.g. the large cold bias in the higher latitude in winter and the missing of the Bai-u front in mainland China| they are mainly due to the overestimation of sea ice area| and the northward shift of the NPH (North Pacific High) in the CSM| respectively. The SST bias in the CSM significantly contributes to the surface air temperature bias on the coast. In the climate change simulations| the large-scale distributions of SLP and temperature in the RegCM bear a resemblance to those of the CSM in both months. On the other hand| the regional scale precipitation change patterns are different between the RegCM and the CSM in June| because the precipitation band near japan is well reproduced in the RegCM both in the 1CO(2) and the 2CO(2) climate. In this simulation| some notable climate change features are found| such as the temperature increase at higher latitudes in January| or intensification of the NPH extending to the southwest in June. Although these changes are statistically significant| they are mainly influenced by the bias in the CSM because the changes occur over the bias region| and their magnitudes do not necessarily exceed the bias of the simulated present climate. From these results| it should be stressed that it is of utmost importance that the AOGCM information is of good quality in the prediction of regional climate change. 5461,2001,2,4,Phenology is a major determinant of tree species range,Global warming is expected to have a major impact on plant distributions| an issue of key importance in biological conservation. However| very few models are able to predict species distribution accurately| although we know species respond individually to climate change. Here we show| using a process-based model (PHENOFIT)| that tree species distributions can be predicted precisely if the biological processes of survival and reproductive success only are incorporated as a function of phenology. These predictions showed great predictive power when tested against present distributions of two North American species - quaking aspen and sugar maple - indicating that on a broad scale| the fundamental niche of trees coincides with their realized niche. Phenology is shown here to be a major determinant of plant species range and should therefore be used to assess the consequences of global warming on plant distributions| and the spread of alien plant species. 5506,2001,2,4,Photoperiodic response to early hatching in a migratory bird species,A considerable number of bird species of the northern hemisphere have been breeding earlier over the last few decades| most probably in response to global warming. In migratory birds| there is also a trend towards later departure from the breeding grounds in autumn. Yet it is not known whether this trend in the timing of migration reflects an evolutionary process or is just an immediate phenotypic response to global environmental change. We conducted an experiment with migratory blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) to investigate how the photoperiodic conditions experienced by birds hatching earlier in the season affect the timing of post-juvenile moult and the onset of autumn migration. In a split-brood experiment| we reared 30 nestlings from six different families and kept them either under a photoperiodic regime simulating conditions 6 weeks before their actual hatching date or under simulated natural photoperiods. Time-shifted birds started moulting at an earlier age compared to controls and showed an early phase of nocturnal migratory activity. Under the influence of long day lengths moult was prolonged and migratory activity was interrupted. However| the termination of moult and the reinitiation of migratory activity were not delayed to the extent that birds compensated for the simulated early hatching date. Thus| we suggest that extant physiological responses to the photoperiod are maladaptive under the novel environmental conditions imposed by a global increase in temperature| leading to earlier autumn migration in juvenile birds with earlier breeding. 5641,2001,3,4,Photosynthetic performance of a cyanobacterium in a vertical flat-plate photobioreactor for outdoor microalgal production and fixation of CO2,A vertical flat-plate photobioreactor was developed for the outdoor culture of microalgae using sunlight as the light source. The ability for biomass production and CO2 fixation was evaluated by using a cyanobacterium| Synechocystis aquatilis SI-2. The average areal productivity was 31 g biomass m(-2) d(-1)| which corresponded to a CO2 fixation rate of 51 g CO2 m(-2) d(-1)| sustainable in the northern region of Japan during the winter time (January and February). The relationships between the efficiency of solar energy utilization of the reactor and its effect factors (cell concentration and irradiation) were investigated. 2994,2001,4,4,Phylogeography in coastal marine animals: a solution from California?,Aim Recently discovered deep phylogenetic gaps in coastal California marine taxa are geographically discordant with the provincial biogeographic boundary at Point Conception. This discordance runs contrary to the phylogeographic hypotheses that were derived from studies of coastal marine taxa in south-eastern North America. Here| I investigate the nature of the discrepant phylogeographic and biogeographic patterns in coastal California. Location Coastal south-western North America. Methods The scientific literature describing the phylogeography and biogeography of coastal California taxa was reviewed. Data describing life-history characteristics| habitat| and degree of phylogeographic structure were extracted and compared. The geographical distribution of phylogenetic breaks was compared with regional biogeographic data. Results All taxa were genetically variable. Those with greater dispersal ability generally had less phylogeographic structure. Although few taxa had very limited dispersal ability| many exhibited phylogeographic breaks within the California Transition Zone| a region of gradual species replacement between Oregonian and Californian biogeographic provinces. The most precisely resolved phylogeographic breaks were geographically concordant with peaks in the distribution of edge-effect species| which are strong indicators of environmental discontinuities| or ecotones. Moreover| these phylogeographic gaps| edge-effect species| and ecotones coincide geographically with Late Pleistocene faunal discontinuities and probable long-term physical barriers to gene flow. Main conclusions Contrary to prior inference| phylogeographic patterns in coastal California marine taxa are consistent with the phylogeographic hypotheses. The concordance of phylogeographic. and biogeographic patterns in the coastal marine faunas of south-eastern and south-western North America| and also the Indo-Pacific| suggests that the phylogeographic hypotheses are generally applicable to many coastal marine settings. As such| they provide a framework for investigating and comparing patterns of evolution in disparate coastal marine faunas. 5481,2001,2,4,Physiologic plasticity| evolution| and impacts of a changing climate on Pinus contorta,Climate response functions for 125 Pinus contorta populations were updated to assess the impact of 16 climate change scenarios on forest productivity. Productivity was defined as the volume of wood expected per hectare at age 20 and was calculated as the product of predicted individual tree volumes| an initial stocking (1600 trees ha(-1))| and predicted survival. Impact was considered according to the transient effects of a changing climate governed by (1) physiological plasticity in the contemporary generation and (2) long-term evolutionary adjustments that provide adaptedness and optimize productivity in future generations. Direct short-term plastic responses were geographically complex and had repercussions throughout the species' distribution even when temperature fluctuations were small (+/- 1 degrees C) and changes in distribution were inconsequential. Evolutionary adjustments ameliorated negative short-term impacts while enhancing the positive. Scenarios that encompassed predictions for global warming produced short-term impacts that were negative in the south and positive in the north| but subsequent evolutionary adjustments projected substantial increases in productivity. The long-term adjustments may require only 1 to 3 generations in the north but 6 to 12 generations in the south| thereby taking between 200 and 1200 years. 2958,2001,2,4,Phytophenological trends in Switzerland,Nation-wide phenological observations have been made in Switzerland since 1951. In addition to these observation programmes| there are two very long phenological series in Switzerland: leaf bud burst of horse-chestnut trees has been observed in Geneva since 1808 and full flowering of cherry trees in Liestal since 1894. In addition to the presentation of these two long phenological series| trends for 896 phenological time series have been calculated with national data from 1951 to 1998. The earlier bud burst of horse-chestnut trees in Geneva can be attributed mainly to the city effect (warmth island). This phenomenon was not observed with the cherry tree flowering in Liestal. A clear trend towards earlier appearance dates in spring and a weak tendency towards later appearance dates in autumn could be shown with data from the national observation network. It must be noted that different phenophases and plant species react differently to various environmental influences. 5469,2001,3,3,Plasma reforming and coupling of methane with carbon dioxide,Plasma reforming and coupling of methane with carbon dioxide using a point-to-point typo of reactor have been invested. A feed mixture of CH(4) and CO(2) could be converted mainly to CO| H(2)| and C(2)H(2) at atmospheric pressure and without external heating except plasma heating. Under a condition of 200 mL/min of CH(4) and CO(2) (CH(4):CO(2) volume ratio| 50:50)| a 2.5 min discharge gap| and a pulse frequency of 10.3 kPPS| CH(4) and CO(2) conversion| CO and C(2)H(2) selectivities| H(2)/CO ratio| and (CH(4) + CO(2)) conversion efficiency were 65.9% and 57.8%| 85.9% and 11.3%| 0.99| and 2.4 mmol/kJ| respectively. C(2)H(2) selectivity and H(2)/CO ratio could be moderated by changing CH(4) concentration in the feed mixture. The influence| of methane concentration and pulse frequency on product selectivity and plasma energy efficiency was evaluated. A brief economic evaluation of this process was given. The coproduction of acetylene of high value remarkably improved the production of synthesis gas (CO + H(2)) from carbon dioxide reforming of methane| which could also contribute the emission reduction of global warming gas CO(2). 5488,2001,3,2,Polylactides: Properties and prospects of an environmentally benign plastic from renewable resources,Pressing environmental and economic concerns dictate the need to develop new synthetic macromolecules based on renewable resources. The vast majority of existing materials are based on non-renewable fossil resources that will eventually be extinguished. Manufacturing synthetic polymers and disposal by incineration produces CO2 and contributes to global warming. For these reasons| poly(lactic acid) (PLA) polymers are of increasing commercial interest because they are derived from a renewable resources| sequester significant quantities of carbon dioxide relative to petrochemical based materials| conserve energy| and easily degrade. The mechanical properties of PLA are compared to other commodity plastics and it is shown that PLA closely resembles polystyrene. The effects of blending linear and branched chain architectures are discussed and it is shown that this provides a convenient method for controlling the elasticity and viscosity of the composite material without affecting mechanical or permeation properties. The melt rheology of high L content linear PLAs shows two unique features; they may be drawn to large Hencky strains without breaking and they exhibit considerable strain hardening. As a result| PLA is easily processed into fiber form. Due to the excellent combination of mechanical| rheological| and environmental properties| the prospects for widespread commercialization of PLA are excellent. 5439,2001,3,3,Pore structure of sheared coals and related coalbed methane,Coalbed methane is considered to be one of the major contributors to global warming. Geological prospecting of the rich-storage zone of methane is an important precondition for gas recovery projects. Shear zones along coal seams have long been considered as a major place where gas outbursts occur during mining| but they also have a positive aspect in coalbed methane prospecting and production because of their great quantity of fractures and high methane content. Mercury penetrating experiments on a series of variously sheared coal samples from the Pingdingshan coalfield| China| were performed. The results showed that tectonically sheared coals possess three to eight times more porosity and two to ten times more specific surface area than their normal counterparts. Moreover| brittlely deformed coals possess larger average fracture apertures representing a good condition for methane extraction whereas ductilely deformed coals show a fracture aperture even smaller than normal coals| which can explain why intensely sheared coals become difficult for methane extraction. The occurrence of a large number of tectonic fractures in a shear zone will make it easier for an artificial fracture to increase the permeability of coals in methane production. Therefore| except for locally ductile deformation areas| shear zones along coal seams are the best source and reservoir for methane gas production and| if this methane is extracted| it will help not only the reservoir but also protect the earth against global warming. 5406,2001,2,4,Positive feedbacks among forest fragmentation| drought| and climate change in the Amazon,The Amazon basin is experiencing rapid forest loss and fragmentation| Fragmented forests are more prone than intact forests to periodic damage from El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) droughts| which cause elevated tree mortality| increased litterfall| shifts in plant phenology| and other ecological changes| especially near forest edges| Moreover| positive feedbacks among forest loss| fragmentation| fire| and regional climate change appear increasingly likely Deforestation reduces plant evapotranspiration| which in turn constrains regional rainfall| increasing the vulnerability of forests to fire. Forest fragments are especially vulnerable because they have dry| fire-prone edges| are logged frequently| and often are adjoined by cattle pastures| which are burned regularly. The net result is that there may be a critical "deforestation threshold" above which Amazonian rainforests can no longer be sustained| particularly in relatively seasonal areas of the basin. Global warming could exacerbate this problem if it promotes drier climates or stronger ENSO droughts. Synergisms among many simultaneous environmental changes are posing unprecedented threats to Amazonian forests. 5583,2001,2,3,Potential impact of climate change on marine export production,Future climate change will affect marine productivity| as well as other many components of Earth system. We have investigated the response of marine productivity to global warming with two different ocean biogeochemical schemes and two different atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (GCM). Both coupled GCMs were used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (+1% CO2/yr for 80 years). At 2xCO(2)| increased stratification leads to both reduced nutrient supply and increased light efficiency. Both effects drive a reduction in marine export production (-6%) although regionally changes can be both negative and positive (from -15% zonal average in the tropics to +10% in the Southern Ocean). Both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes simulate a poleward shift of marine production due mainly to a longer growing season at high latitudes. At low latitudes the effect of reduced upwelling prevails. The resulting reduction in marine productivity| and other marine resources| could become detectable in the near future| if appropriate long-term observing systems are implemented. 2973,2001,2,4,Precipitation and temperature effects on populations of Aedes albopictus (Diptera : Culicidae): Implications for range expansion,We investigated how temperature and precipitation regime encountered over the life cycle of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) affects populations. Caged populations of A. albopictus were maintained at 22| 26| and 30 degreesC. Cages were equipped with containers that served as sites for oviposition and larval development. All cages were assigned to one of three simulated precipitation regimes: (1) low fluctuation regime - water within the containers was allowed to evaporate to 90% of its maximum before being refilled| (2) high fluctuation regime - water was allowed to evaporate to 25% of its maximum before being refilled| and (3) drying regime - water was allowed to evaporate to complete container dryness before being refilled. Greater temperature and the absence of drying resulted in greater production of adults. Greater temperature in combination with drying were detrimental to adult production. These precipitation effects on adult production were absent at 22 C. Greater temperatures and drying treatments yielded higher and lower eclosion rates| respectively and| both yielded greater mortality. Development time and size of adults decreased with increased temperatures| and drying produced larger adults. Greater temperatures resulted in greater egg mortality. These results suggest that populations occurring in warmer regions are likely to produce more adults as long as containers do not dry completely. Populations in cooler regions are likely to produce fewer adults with the variability of precipitation contributing less to variation in adult production. Predicted climate change in North America is likely to extend the northern distribution of A. albopictus and to limit further its establishment in arid regions. 3031,2001,2,4,Predicting climate change effects on Appalachian trout: Combining GIS and individual-based modeling,We coupled an individual-based model of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) with a geographic information system (GIS) database to predict climate change effects on southern Appalachian stream populations. The model tracked individuals of both species through the daily processes of spawning| growth| feeding| mortality| and movement for 30 years in a stream reach consisting of connected pools| runs| and riffles. The southern Appalachian Plateau was divided into 101 watershed elevation band zones. Model simulations were performed for a representative stream reach of each stream order in each zone. Trout abundance was estimated by multiplying predicted trout densities (measured in number of trout per meter) by the total length of streams of each order in each watershed elevation zone. Three climate change scenarios were analyzed: temperature only (1.5-2.5 degreesC warmer stream temperatures); temperature and how (warmer stream temperatures and lower baseline flows with threefold higher peak hows); and temperature| flow| and mortality episodes (warmer stream temperatures| changed hows| and flow-related scouring of redds). Increased temperature alone resulted in increased abundances of brook and rainbow trout. The temperature-and-how scenario resulted in a complex mosaic of positive and negative changes in abundances in zones| but little change in total abundance. Addition of episodic mortality in the form of floods that scour redds and kill eggs and fry caused a net loss of rainbow trout. Predicted changes in habitat (based on simulation results and temperature alone) were| at best| weakly correlated with predicted changes in abundance. The coupling of individual-based models to GIS databases| in order to scale up environmental effects on individuals to regional population responses| offers a promising approach for regional assessments. 5480,2001,4,2,Predicting patterns of near-surface air temperature using empirical data,The signal of recent global warming has been detected in meteorological records| borehole temperatures and by several indirect climate indicators. Anthropogenic warming continues to evolve| and various methods are used to study and predict the changes of the global and regional climate. Results derived from GCMs| palaeoclimate reconstructions| and regional climate models differ in detail. An empirical model could be used to predict the spatial pattern of the near-surface air temperature and to narrow the range of regional uncertainties. The idea behind this approach is to study the correlations between regional and global temperature using century-scale meteorological records| and to evaluate the regional pattern of the future climate using regression analysis and the global-mean air temperature as a predictor. This empirical model| however| is only applicable to those parts of the world where regional near-surface air temperature reacts linearly to changes of the global thermal regime. This method and data from a set of approximately 2000 weather stations with continuous century-scale records of the monthly air temperature was applied to develop the empirical map of the regional climate sensitivity. Data analysis indicated that an empirical model could be applied to several large regions of the World| where correlations between local and global air temperature are statistically significant. These regions are the western United States| southern Canada| Alaska| Siberia| south-eastern Asia| southern Africa and Australia| where the correlation coefficient is typically above 0.9. The map of regional climate sensitivity has been constructed using calculated coefficients of linear regression between the global-mean and regional annual air temperature. As long as the correlations between the local and global air temperature are close to those in the last several decades| this map provides an effective tool to scale down the projection of the global air temperature to regional level. According to the results of this study| maximum warming at the beginning of the 21st century will take place in the continental parts of North America and Eurasia. The empirical regional climate sensitivity defined here as the response of the mean-annual regional temperature to 1 degreesC global warming was found to be 5-6 degreesC in southern Alaska| central Canada| and over the continental Siberia| 3-4 degreesC on the North Slope of Alaska and western coast of the U.S.A.| and 1-2 degreesC in most of the central and eastern U.S.A. and eastern Canada. Regions with negative sensitivity are located in the southeastern U.S.A.| north-western Europe and Scandinavia. The local tendency towards cooling| although statistically confirmed by modern data| could| however| change in the near future. 5462,2001,2,4,Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in ohio using current habitat availability and climatic forcing,We investigated the effect of habitat loss on the ability of trees to shift in distribution across a landscape dominated by agriculture. The potential distribution shifts of four tree species (Diospyros virginiana| Oxydendron arboreum| Pinus virginiana| Quercus falcata var. falcata) whose northern distribution limits fall in the southern third of Ohio were used to assess possible distribution shift scenarios as a result of global warming. Our predictions derive from the results of simulations using (a) forest inventory based estimates of current distribution and abundance of target species; (b) a satellite-based estimate of forest habitat availability; and (c) a tree migration model (SHIFT). The current distribution and abundance of trees was estimated using USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory Analysis data and distribution maps from the late 1960s; pre-European settlement forest-nonforest maps were used to represent the fully forested condition for calibration and comparison. Habitat-availability estimates in Ohio were estimated using classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data from 1994. Tree abundance| forest availability and migration were modeled using a 1-km(2) pixel size. Forest availability was estimated as the proportion of forested TM pixels within each cell. The probability of a migrating species colonizing an unoccupied cell is modeled as a function of forest availability and distance to occupied cells. The results of the migration models suggest that the species studied are capable of colonizing virtually any forested location within Ohio over the next 100 years if climatic controls over the current distribution that may currently inhibit northward movement are relaxed. The contiguous distribution of these species| however| is not likely to shift more than 10 km during the next century regardless of the magnitude of the climate change. Examining the sensitivity of our simulations by varying critical model attributes| we found that whereas the variables controlling the amount of long-distance dispersal have strong effects on migration rates in the fully forested 1800 situation| they have significantly lesser effects on projections of future migration into highly fragmented forests. The low forest availability that characterizes much of the current Ohio landscape| along with the low likelihood of long distance dispersal| result in potential distribution shifts that are concentrated within the principally forested corridors in southeastern Ohio. We propose that in contrast to the past| future tree migrations are likely to be spatially and temporally correlated as a result of large climatic forcing and channelization through limited regions of available habitat. With respect to the management of biodiversity| this result suggests that it may be very difficult to discern plant migrations of native forest species owing to exceedingly slow rates of movement. 5558,2001,3,4,Process and environmental benefits with solvent-free stripping,Photoresist removal following dry etching or high-dose ion implantation conventionally employs solvents and acids| sometimes preceded by a dry oxygen-based plasma ash| These costly| hazardous| and polluting wet chemicals are then disposed of through environmentally unfriendly waste-disposal processes| often contributing to global warming| substantial energy consumption| ground water contamination| etc. A new cleaning process (ENVIRO) that dry ashes etched resist and simultaneously renders remaining material 100% DI water soluble has been qualified in manufacturing and successfully used for more than 12 months. Normalized for a 10|000 wafer-starts/week fab| this process can save more than $5 million/year in solvent costs alone. 5543,2001,2,3,Productivity of Trifolium subterraneum and Phalaris aquatica under warmer| high CO2 conditions,Despite the importance of grass-legume pastoral ecosystems worldwide| there is little known about the impacts of concurrent increase in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration on their productivity. Pure and mixed swards of subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum) and phalaris (Phalaris aquatica) were established under ambient and warmed (+3.4 degreesC) air temperatures| at ambient and 690 mu mol mol(-1) CO2 concentrations in field tunnels in temperate south-eastern Australia. Over one year| elevated CO2 increased clover foliage growth in the monoculture by 19%| and by 31% in the mixture. Warming reduced clover monoculture herbage production at ambient CO2 by 28% and reduced the growth enhancement by elevated CO2 to +8%. Forage growth of phalaris monoculture was not affected significantly by either factor. Forage growth of the mixture was increased by 34% in response to higher CO2| but unaffected by warming. Elevated CO2 combined with warming increased forage growth of the mixed sward by 23%. Concurrent rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature increased productivity of subterranean clover-phalaris swards. However| longer term effects on species competition and persistence may modify this conclusion. 2961,2001,2,4,Public health risk assessment linked to climatic and ecological change,Disturbances of climatic and ecological systems can present risks to human health| which are becoming more evident from health studies linked to climate variability| landuse change and global climate change. Waterborne disease agents| such as Giardia cysts and Cryposporidium oocysts have been positively correlated with rainfall. El Nino-related extreme weather conditions can have a significant impact on vector- and water-borne diseases. The linkages between weather| terrestrial ecology and human health have been discovered for some diseases| such as rodent-borne hantavirus. Marine ecology also plays a role in determining human health risks| such as from cholera| and other enteric pathogens. Deforestation and ensuing changes in landuse| human settlement| commercial development| road construction| and water control systems singly| and in combination have been accompanied by increases in or emergence of diseases like malaria and schistosomiasis in some regions of the world. Long-term climate change may increase the frequency of heat waves and potentially air pollution episodes| increase the number of extreme weather events| cause coastal flooding and salination of fresh water aquifers| and displace coastal settlements. Ultimately| a two-pronged approach (empirical and modeling studies) is required to better understand these linkages between climatological and ecological change as determinants of disease. 5569,2001,4,4,Reconstruction of the surface warming history of western interior Canada from borehole temperature profiles and other climate information,Over the past several decades annual surface air temperature (SAT) warming in western interior Canada has been more than twice that of the global average. Inversions of the temperature profiles in boreholes throughout this large region provide evidence of anomalously high ground surface temperature (GST) warming trends between the mid-19th century and present. Previous studies have identified strong SAT/GST associations throughout this region for the 20th century. This analysis of the composite| century-scale| regional GST histories (GSTHs) is based on the deepest available borehole temperature logs from the Foreland Sedimentary Basin in western and northern Canada| east of the Cordillera. Although separated by almost 20 degrees latitude| there is strong regional correlation (r = 0.98) between the GSTHs developed from northern (boreal forest) and southern (prairie grassland) boreholes. When filtered| the GSTHs of western Canada correlate strongly with the northern hemisphere (r = 0.80) and the Canadian Arctic (r = 0.86) high temporal resolution proxy climate histories. Strong correlation also exists between the prairie grassland GSTH curve and the tree-ring-based surface summer temperature history from the Columbia Icefield in the Canadian Rocky Mountains close to Athabasca Glacier (r = 0.95). These findings strongly suggest that the similar| but enhanced| SAT warming signal identified by GSTHs makes western interior Canada a strong indicator region of global warming. 5400,2001,2,4,Recruitment of pelagic fish in an unstable climate: Studies in Sweden's four largest lakes,Pelagic fish population biology was studied in the large Swedish lakes Vanern| Vattern| Malaren and Hjalmaren. It is crucial for fish fry in temperate regions to hatch early in the growth season to survive| and achieve large size before winter| and it is suggested that the key factors are to match the spring development of phyto- and zooplankton| but to avoid predation. This is more easily accomplished by the studied spring spawners smelt (Osmerus eperlanus) and pike-perch (Stizostedion lucioperca) than autumn spawners| such as vendace (Coregonus albula). It is shown that hatching of vendace fry shortly after ice-break-up is beneficial for year-class strength. In oligotrophic large lakes with few predatory species a rapid increase in water temperature after ice-break is also promoting recruitment| whereas this is not the case in eutrophic lakes where predation pressure from other species may become too high. The results indicate that autumn spawners will have difficulties in adapting to global warming and it is also suggested that the life history can explain the large variations observed in year-class strength between years. 2981,2001,2,3,Regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: An integrated assessment (AIR-CLIM),The aim of the AIR-CLIM project is to perform an integrated analysis of the linkages between climate change and regional air pollution in Europe and to produce results that are relevant to European policy-making. Key elements of the analysis are on the impact side the exceedances of critical thresholds for air pollution and global change and on the cost side the estimates of costs to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. The integrated modeling framework set up to meet these objectives consists of two state-of-the-art integrated models covering regional air pollution in Europe (RAINS) and global climate change (IMAGE)| supplemented by new components. Based on a preliminary analysis it can be stated that climate change will make European vegetation in most regions less sensitive to acid deposition. Taking into account the emission trends the impacts of regional air pollution will decrease while the impacts of climate change increase. Different problems will be important in different regions: regional air pollution in Central and northern Europe| and climate change in southern Europe. 5527,2001,2,2,Regional-scale assembly rules and biodiversity of coral reefs,Tropical reef fishes and corals exhibit highly predictable patterns of taxonomic composition across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Despite steep Longitudinal and Latitudinal gradients in total species richness| the composition of these key taxa is constrained within a remarkably narrow range of values. Regional-scale variation in reef biodiversity is best explained by Large-scale patterns in the availability of shallow-water habitat. Once habitat area is accounted for| there is surprisingly little residual effect of Latitude or Longitude. Low-diversity regions are most vulnerable to human impacts such as global warming| underscoring the urgent need for integrated management at multinational scales. 5650,2001,3,3,Renewable energy: Power for a sustainable future,By the end of the 21st century| according to United Nations projections| the number of people on the earth is likely to have approximately doubled. How can a world of 10 to 12 billion people be provided with adequate supplies of energy| cleanly| safely and substantially? There is a growing consensus that renewable energy sources will be a very important part of the answer. The growing interest in "renewables" has been prompted in part| by increasing concern over the pollution| resource depletion and possible climate change implications of our continuing use of conventional fossil and nuclear fuels. But recent technological developments have also improved the cost-effectiveness of many of the renewables. making their economic prospects look increasingly attractive. it describes the achievement and progress made in hydropower| biomass conversion| geothermal| solar thermal technology| wind energy conversion and the increasing usage of photovoltaics. It is evident that global warming is setting in and is going to change the climate as well as the terrain of many countries unless drastic measures are taken. The Kyoto meeting emphasized the importance of limiting CO| emissions and to abide by some form of agreement to reduce emissions. Present study concludes that renewable energy penetration into the energy market is much faster than was expected in recent years and by 2030| 15-20 percent of our prime energy will be met by renewable energy. 5643,2001,3,3,Renewable methane from anaerobic digestion of biomass,Production of methane via anaerobic digestion of energy crops and organic wastes would benefit society by providing a clean fuel from renewable feedstocks. This would replace fossil fuel-derived energy and reduce environmental impacts including global warming and acid rain. Although biomass energy is more costly than fossil fuel-derived energy| trends to limit carbon dioxide and other emissions through emission regulations| carbon taxes| and subsidies of biomass energy would make it cost competitive. Methane derived from anaerobic digestion is competitive in efficiencies and costs to other biomass energy forms including heat| synthesis gases| and ethanol. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 3038,2001,2,3,Respiration of recently-fixed plant carbon dominates mid-winter ecosystem CO2 production in sub-arctic heath tundra,Arctic ecosystems could provide a substantial positive feedback to global climate change if warming stimulates below-ground CO2 release by enhancing decomposition of bulk soil organic matter reserves. Ecosystem respiration during winter is important in this context because CO2 release from snow-covered tundra soils is a substantial component of annual net carbon (C) balance| and because global climate models predict that the most rapid rises in regional air temperature will occur in the Arctic during winter. In this manipulative field study| the relative contributions of plant and bulk soil organic matter C pools to ecosystem CO2 production in mid-winter were investigated. We measured CO2 efflux rates in Swedish sub-arctic heath tundra from control plots and from plots that had been clipped in the previous growing season to disrupt plant activity. Respiration derived from recently-fixed plant C (i.e.| plant respiration| and respiration associated with rhizosphere exudates and decomposition of fresh litter) was the principal source of CO2 efflux| while respiration associated with decomposition of bulk soil organic matter was low| and appeared relatively insensitive to temperature. These results suggest that warmer mid-winter temperatures in the Arctic may have a much greater impact on the cycling of recently-fixed| plant-associated C pools than on the depletion of tundra bulk soil C reserves| and consequently that there is a low potential for significant initial feedbacks from arctic ecosystems to climate change during mid-winter. 5541,2001,2,4,Response of alpine chironomid communities (Lake Chuna| Kola Peninsula| northwestern Russia) to atmospheric contamination,A short sediment core from the deepest part of an alpine lake (Lake Chuna| Kola Peninsula| northwestern Russia)| covering about the past 200 yrs of sediment accumulation| was analysed for chironomid head capsule remains. The lake has been receiving acidic precipitation and heavy metals loading from the atmosphere since the 1940's. A total of 22 chironomid taxa were recorded. The most important taxa were typical elements of oligotrophic lakes| i.e. Micropsectra insignilobus| Paratanytarsus penicillatus| Stictochironomus spp. and Heterotrissocladius marcidus. Based on the cluster analyses results for the reconstructed environmental variables and chironomid communities| three developmental stages were distinguished from the lake history: (1) Natural ontogeny stage (before 1945); (2) Initial stage of anthropogenic ontogeny (1945-1982); and (3) Anthropogenic ontogeny stage (1982-1996). During the first period| the changes in the chironomid fauna were characterized as an anthropogenically undisturbed community| with M. insignilobus dominating (46-66%). The changes during the second period reflected the initial phase of anthropogenic succession associated with the beginning of acidification and heavy metal pollution. The main species showed opposite distributional patterns in this period; the abundance of the group M. insignilobus/Stictochironomus spp. decreased| whereas the abundance of P. penicillatus/H. marcidus increased. The third period was characterized by a major shift in the faunal assemblages| from M. insignilobus to other dominant species including P. penicillatus (19-30%). The increases of Orthocladiinae relative abundance and total organic content in the uppermost sediment layers may be explained by a decrease in lake productivity. The decreases of cold-stenothermal taxa Stictochironomus spp. and M. insignilobus in the uppermost sediment layers can be explained by the global warming during the 20th century. The lake ecosystem is likely to be affected by both inputs of airborne contaminants and climate changes. 5499,2001,2,4,Response of seedlings of three dominant shrubs to climate warming in Ordos plateau,Ordas plateau is a classical semi-dry sandland in China. The dry ecosystem responds sensitively to water-heat pattern of global change there. The distribution pattern and productivity of terrestrial ecosystem are greatly affected by global warming. Ecological adaptation strategies of seedlings of Caragana intermedia Kuang et H. C. Fu| Hedysarum mongolicum Turcz. and Artemisia ordosica Kraschen.| three dominant shrubs in Ordas plateau| were investigated in terms of morphological plasticities| biomass effects and photosynthetic and physiological characters| to the global warming by artificially controlling two temperature levels. The results show that the effects of temperature enhancement on growth and photosynthetic and physiological characters were obviously different among these three plant species. Temperature enhancement significantly increased tree height| leaf number| leaf area| biomass| photosynthetic rate| transpiration rate and stomatal conductance of C. intermedia and H. mongolicum seedlings| indicating that elevated temperature significantly affected the growth of these seedlings positively. Elevated temperature had almost no significant effect on the growth of A. ordosica seedlings. Their leaf number| leaf size| leaf area| biomass| transpiration rate and stomatal conductance did not increase obviously| but tree height and photosynthetic rate obviously increased with increasing temperature. Interspecific growth was significantly different among C. intermedia| H. mongolicum and A. ordosica seedlings. Except leaf size| values of the other seven characters of C. intermedia seedlings were greater than those of H. mongolicum and A. ordosica seedlings. 3040,2001,2,4,Salinization: unplumbed salt in a parched landscape,The global hydrological and salt cycles are described| as are the ways in which human activities have led to their disturbance. One effect of this disturbance is the unnatural increase in the salinity of many inland waters (secondary salinization). The geographical extent of secondary salinization is outlined| together with its effects on various types of inland waters| such as salt lakes| freshwater lakes and wetlands| and rivers and streams. The likely impact on salinization of global climate change is summarized. 2984,2001,2,4,Savanna-forest hysteresis in the tropics,A simple dynamic model relating forest area in a region| its contribution to dry season precipitation and the effect on its own establishment was developed. The model equation shows hysteresis between forest and savannas as a function of imported dry season precipitation. Regions are either dominated by forests or savannas| with each ecosystem showing stability despite changes in imported dry season precipitation. Deforestation beyond a certain threshold value| however| could cause a collapse of forest ecosystems and replacement by savannas in marginal areas. The predictions of this model corroborate pollen core analysis in the Amazon basin| where historical stability of tropical forest cover has been shown despite global climate change. 2969,2001,3,4,Science and precaution in the appraisal of electricity supply options,The technological risks associated with electricity generating options are a crucial consideration in the governance of energy strategies. Conversely| many central issues in the broader social debate over the governance of environmental risk (such as acid gas emissions| radioactive waste management| nuclear safety and global climate change) relate very strongly to technology choice in the electricity supply sector. The particularities of this field| therefore| offer a topical and pertinent case with which to explore the relationship between science and precaution in the governance of technological risk. By reference to the electricity sector| the present paper examines the contrasts between 'risk-based' and 'precautionary' approaches to the governance of risk| paying particular attention to the problems of intractable uncertainties and divergent values. A number of theoretical and methodological issues in conventional risk-assessment and cost-benefit analysis are examined and their practical implications for appraisal explored. Attention then turns to the form that might be taken by approaches to the governance of energy risks that are at the same time scientifically well-founded and precautionary. Conclusions are drawn for decision and policy making in this area. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 3006,2001,2,4,Seasonal patterns of photosynthesis in Douglas fir seedlings during the third and fourth year of exposure to elevated CO2 and temperature,The interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on seasonal patterns of photosynthesis in Douglas fir (Psuedotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) France) seedlings were examined. Seedlings were grown in sunlit chambers controlled to track either ambient (similar to 400 p.p.m.) CO2 or ambient +200 p.p.m. CO2| and either ambient temperature or ambient +4 degreesC. Light-saturated net photosynthetic rates were measured approximately monthly over a 21 month period. Elevated CO2 increased net photosynthetic rates by an average of 21% across temperature treatments during both the 1996 hydrologic year| the third year of exposure| and the 1997 hydrologic year. Elevated mean annual temperature increased net photosynthetic rates by an average of 33% across CO2 treatments during both years. Seasonal temperature changes also affected net photosynthetic rates. Across treatments| net photosynthetic rates were highest in the spring and autumn| and lowest in July| August and December-January. Seasonal increases in temperature were not correlated with increases in the relative photosynthetic response to elevated CO2. Seasonal shifts in the photosynthetic temperature optimum reduced temperature effects on the relative response to elevated CO2. These results suggest that the effects of elevated CO2 on net photosynthetic rates in Douglas fir are largely independent of temperature. 5485,2001,2,4,Seasonal variation in territory occupancy of non-breeding Long-billed Curlews in intertidal habitats,During the non-breeding season| many shorebirds use coastal habitats where tides influence their dispersion patterns and social systems. We spot-mapped Long-billed Curlews (Numenius americanus) at the Elk River estuary| California to examine variation in territory occupancy troth May 1999-April 2000. Curlew abundance was highest (a maximum of It; territorial and tip to 10 non-territorial birds) from July to September| after which time numbers declined progressively to 2-6 in winter. Five curlews were resident on >50% of observation days (N = 133) trout June-April: these individuals returned to the estuary earlier and departed later than 11 other territorial curlews that were present 12-37% of occasions and mostly from July-November. Territory occupancy declined in association with precipitation and diurnal low tides ranging between -0.7 and 1.3 m. The absence of two territorial curlews coincided with rainy periods. The absence of curlews front five territories coincided with neap (low) tides; lour of these curlews held territories at lower intertidal elevations with gently sloping topographies| such that they were inundated longer than other territories. At the Elk River estuary. territoriality may limit the number of curlews using intertidal habitats| but individual variation in territory residency suggests that numbers| and possibly carrying capacity| changed seasonally with availability of food in intertidal and pasture habitats. Habitat losses| such as those accompanying moderate (25-50 cm) rises in sea level associated with global warming| may reduce the carrying capacity of estuaries where existing levees preclude creation of new intertidal habitat. 5593,2001,4,3,Short-term volume changes of the Greenland ice sheet in response to doubled CO2 conditions,This paper focuses on the role of accumulation and cloudiness changes in the response of the Greenland ice sheet to global warming. Changes in accumulation or cloudiness were often neglected| or coupled to temperature changes. We used model output on temperature| precipitation and cloudiness from a GCM (ECHAM4 T106). The GCM output was used to drive the Greenland model that exists of a vertically averaged ice now model| coupled to a 1D surface energy balance model that calculates the ablation. Variables are temperature| accumulation and cloudiness. Sensitivity experiments with this model show that changes in accumulation are very important for the ice sheet mass balance| whereas cloudiness is of secondary importance. If the Greenland model is forced by the GCM output| the Greenland model is found to contribute 70% less to sea level rise after 70 years than is indicated by the results presented in the IPCC report. This large discrepancy is mainly due to the fact that the enhanced ablation is strongly compensated by increased accumulation. Comparing the result obtained here with changes in mass balance derived directly from the same general circulation model| indicates a 20% larger contribution to sea level. This increase is due to changes in ice now| and a different method for the ablation calculation. 5640,2001,2,4,Significance of water complexes in the atmosphere,Using standard statistical and thermodynamic procedures| we calculate equilibrium constants for the formation of select| hydrogen-bonded water complexes| namely the water dimer and the cyclic trimer and tetramer| and use them to estimate the atmospheric abundances of these species. We generate water complex altitude profiles (0-30 km) for both a saturated and an unsaturated atmosphere and discuss the dominant factors influencing our results. In our analysis| particular emphasis is given to the significance that water monomer concentrations| complex binding energies| hydrogen-bond energies| and entropy have on the calculated abundance profiles. We examine the importance of enthalpy and entropy at atmospheric temperatures and show how each contributes to our calculated equilibrium constants. By applying a universal 2 degreesC temperature increase throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere| we are able to model the effect that global warming would have on (H2O)(n) abundances in a saturated atmosphere. We also illustrate the effect that this thermal variation would have on entropy| enthalpy| and K-p(T) values. Based on our results| we assess the atmospheric significance of water dimers and cyclic water complexes. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5660,2001,2,4,Simulated changes in atmospheric transport climate,Atmospheric "transport climate'' characterizes how trace gases are distributed by and within the atmosphere| on average| as a consequence of the interaction of atmospheric flow with tracer sources and sinks. The change in transport climate under global warming is investigated using passive tracers. Experiments with constant localized surfaces sources| pulsed sources| and pulsed boundary conditions are analyzed using a Green-function approach in conjunction with a climatological budget calculation. Under climate warming| interhemispheric exchange times| mixing times| and mean transit times all increase by about 10%. The main transport pathway between the hemispheres via the "tracer fountain'' at the ITCZ is suppressed. Generally less vigorous flow manifests itself in higher tracer burdens in the source hemisphere and in downwind plumes of enhanced mixing ratio close to the sources; these increases are also about 10%. Resolved advection and subgrid transport do not cooperate for all sources in enhancing the near-source mixing ratio. The warmer climate has a reduced cross-tropopause gradient| primarily due to a slightly higher tropopause| which results in a reduction of about 25% in the average tropospheric tracer mixing ratio| and a corresponding enhancement in the stratosphere. A global variance budget shows increased mean and transient tracer variance due to increased generation from strengthened mean gradients near the source and weakened eddy and subgrid transport. 5656,2001,4,3,Simulated changes in the frequency of extremes and regional features of seasonal/annual temperature and precipitation when atmospheric CO2 is doubled,Following a transient increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide to double the current level| and a subsequent maintenance at the doubled level| there is a climate shift toward a new equilibrium state. Changes in the mean temperature and precipitation| and changes in the occurrence frequencies of their extremes for the doubled carbon dioxide conditions have been assessed at the continental scale. There is a characteristic spatial pattern that involves a maximum annual mean warming in high northern latitudes and a minimum annual mean warming around Antarctica and in the northern North Atlantic. Under maintained doubled carbon dioxide| this interhemispheric asymmetry disappears except for an ocean-land asymmetry. A possible mechanism for this is considered in terms of changes in effective thermal capacity due to a reduction of overturning in the oceans that continues to decline after the atmospheric carbon dioxide stops increasing. It is also found that global warming becomes most noticeable in the occurrence frequency of high extremes in the annual mean temperature in the low latitudes| even though the temperature rise is largest in the high northern latitudes in autumn and winter. In addition| extremes of large (small) annual and seasonal total precipitation are recorded much more frequently in regions where the mean precipitation increases (decreases). 5652,2001,4,3,Simulation of climate change induced by CO2 increasing for East Asia with IAP/LASG GOALS model,Two simulations| one for the control run and another for the perturbation run| with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system model (IAP/LASG GOALS version 4) have been carried out to study the global warming| with much detailed emphasis on East Asia. Results indicate that there is no climate drift in the control run and at the time of CO| doubling the global temperature increases about 1.65 degreesC. The GOALS model is able to simulate the observed spatial distribution and annual cycles of temperature and precipitation for East Asia quite well. But| in general| the model underestimates temperature and overestimates rainfall amount for regional annual average. For the climate change in East Asia| the temperature and precipitation in East Asia increase 2.1 degreesC and 5% respectively| and the maximum warming occurs at middle-latitude continent and the maximum precipitation increase occurs around 25 degreesN with reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific. 5625,2001,3,4,Simultaneous measurement of NH3| N2O and CH4 to assess efficiency of trace gas emission abatement after slurry application,The application of liquid organic fertilizers can directly or indirectly induce the emission of trace gases. There are already a number of investigations on mitigation strategies| but most of them focus on one gas only and neglect the fact| that conditions reducing the emission of one trace gas might have a directly opposed effect on another. We conducted several field experiments to investigate the influence of application technique and pre-treatment of slurry on trace gas emissions after slurry application. Ammonia| CH4 and N2O where measured simultaneously. It could be clearly shown| that some of the tested slurry management techniques had contrary effects on the emissions of the different trace gases. With information on emissions of single trace gases| wrong conclusions might be drawn concerning the effectiveness of mitigation options. By comparing the emissions based on CO2 equivalents| the different management options can be compared comprising all three studied trace gases. 5418,2001,2,4,Snow depth manipulation and its influence on soil frost and water dynamics in a northern hardwood forest,Climate change will likely result in warmer winter temperatures leading to less snowfall in temperate forests. These changes may lead to increases in soil freezing because of lack of an insulating snow cover and changes in soil water dynamics during the important snowmelt period. In this study| we manipulated snow depth by removing snow for two winters| simulating the late development of the snowpack as may occur with global warming| to explore the relationships between snow depth| soil freezing| soil moisture| and infiltration. We established four sites| each with two paired plots| at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire| U.S.A. and instrumented all eight plots with soil and snow thermistors| frost tubes| soil moisture probes| and soil lysimeters. For two winters| we removed snow from the designated treatment plots until February. Snow in the reference plots was undisturbed. The treatment winters (1997/1998 and 1998/1999) were relatively mild| with temperatures above the seasonal norm and snow depths below average. Results show the treated plots accumulated significantly less snow and had more extensive soil frost than reference plots. Snow depth was a strong regulator of soil temperature and frost depth at all sites. Soil moisture measured by time domain reflectometry probes and leaching volumes collected in lysimeters were lower in the treatment plots in March and April compared to the rest of the year. The ratio of leachate volumes collected in the treatment plots to that in the reference plots decreased as the snow ablation seasons progressed. Our data show that even mild winters with low snowfall| simulated by snow removal| will result in increased soil freezing in the forests at the HBEF. Our results suggest that a climate shift toward less snowfall or a shorter duration of snow on the ground will produce increases in soil freezing in northern hardwood forests. Increases in soil freezing will have implications for changes in soil biogeochemical processes. 5610,2001,4,4,Snow interception evaporation. Review of measurement techniques| processes| and models,A global warming| primarily affecting wintertime conditions at high latitudes will influence the functioning of the boreal forest. The least known term of the winter water-balance equation is evaporation of snow intercepted in forest canopies. Several investigations stress the importance of snow-interception evaporation in coniferous forests and evaporation fractions of gross precipitation as large as 0.2-0.5 have been observed by investigators in Scotland| Canada| and Japan. Evaporation rates as high as 0.56 mm h(-1) are reported. The largest differences between the rain and snow interception evaporation processes are the differences in Storage. Snow storage (both mass and duration) is often an order of magnitude larger than that for rain. Snow interception changes the canopy albedo although some studies indicate the opposite. Process knowledge is limited because of measurement difficulties but it is known that canopy closure| aerodynamic resistance (r(a))| and vapour-pressure deficit are important factors. Existing formulations of r(a) as function of storage location and age cannot fully explain observed differences in evaporation rates. Operational hydrology and weather models| and GCMs describe snow interception in a very simplified way and might benefit from incorporation of more realistic schemes. 5479,2001,2,4,Soil degradation| global warming and climate impacts,A water balance model is used to assess the relative impacts of global warming and soil degradation scenarios on water resources in the future. Results indicate that overall global warming will have a more widespread and greater impact on climate change. However soil degradation could also play a significant role in water resource issues in the future. Based on the model results| wet and dry climate regions are particularly susceptible to impacts from soil degradation. In general| reduced water holding capacities will result in increased water runoff during wet periods| which will result in higher overland flow rates and reduced recharge rates to groundwater. Water lost to runoff will also increase deficits during dry periods| in effect increasing the duration and intensity of dry periods. 5540,2001,3,3,Solid waste treatment as a high-priority and low-cost alternative for greenhouse gas mitigation,The increased concern about environmental problems caused by inadequate waste management| as well as the concern about global warming| promotes actions toward a sustainable management of the organic fraction of the waste. Landfills. the most common means to dispose of municipal solid waste (MSW)| lead to the conversion of the organic waste to biogas| containing about 50% methane| a very active greenhouse gas (GHG). One unit of methane has a global warming potential of 21 computed for a 100-year horizon or 56 computed for 20 years. The waste sector in Israel contributes 13% of total greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions for a time horizon of 100 years (for a time horizon of 20 years| the waste sector contribution equals to more than 25% of total GHG emissions). The ultimate goal is to minimize the amount of methane (CH4) by converting it to CO2. This can be achieved by physicochemical means (e.g.| landfill gas flare| incineration) or by biological processes (e.g.| composting. anaerobic digestion). Since the waste in Israel has a high organic material content| it was found that the most cost-effective means to treat the degradable organic components is by aerobic composting (investment of less than US$ 10 to reduce emission of one ton CO2 equivalent per year). Another benefit of this technology is the ability to implement it within a short period. The suggested approach| which should be implemented especially in developing countries| could reduce a significant amount of GHG at relatively low cost and short time. The development of a national policy for proper waste treatment can be a significant means to abate GHG emissions in the short term| enabling a gain in time to develop other means for the long run. In addition| the use of CO2 quotas will credit the waste sector and will promote profitable proper waste management. 5571,2001,4,6,Sources of global warming in upper ocean temperature during El Nino,Global average sea surface temperature (SST) from 40 degreesS to 60 degreesN fluctuates +/-0.3 degreesC on interannual period scales| with global warming (cooling) during El Nino (La Nina). About 90% of the global warming during El Nino occurs in the tropical global ocean from 20 degreesS to 20 degreesN| half because of large SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Nino and the other half because of warm SST anomalies occurring over similar to 80% of the tropical global ocean. From examination of National Centers for Environmental Prediction [Kalnay et al.| 1996] and Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set [Woodruff et al.| 1993] reanalyses| tropical global warming during El Nino is associated with higher troposphere moisture content and cloud cover| with reduced trade wind intensity occurring during the onset phase of EI Nino. During this onset phase the tropical global average diabatic heat storage tendency in the layer above the main pycnocline is 1-3 Wm(-2) above normal. Its principal source is a reduction in the poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropical ocean of 2-5 Wm(-2). Subsequently| peak tropical global warming during El Nino is dissipated by an increase in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere of 2-5 W m(-2)| with reduced shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes in response to increased cloud cover tending to cancel each other. In the extratropical global ocean the reduction in poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropics during the onset of El Nino tends to be balanced by reduction in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere. Thus global warming and cooling during Earth's internal mode of interannual climate variability arise from fluctuations in the global hydrological balance| not the global radiation balance. Since it occurs in the absence of extraterrestrial and anthropogenic forcing| global warming on decadal| interdecadal| and centennial period scales may also occur in association with Earth's internal modes of climate variability on those scales. 5657,2001,4,3,Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation response to global warming,The response of the Southern Hemisphere (SH)| extratropical| atmospheric general circulation to transient| anthropogenic| greenhouse warming is investigated in a coupled climate model. The extratropical circulation response consists of a SH summer half-year poleward shift of the westerly jet and a year-round positive wind anomaly in the stratosphere and the tropical upper troposphere. Along with the poleward shift of the jet| there is a poleward shift of several related fields| including the belt of eddy momentum-flux convergence and the mean meridional overturning in the atmosphere and in the ocean. The tropospheric wind response projects strongly onto the model's "Southern Annular Mode'' (also known as the "Antarctic oscillation'')| which is the leading pattern of variability of the extratropical zonal winds. 5470,2001,2,4,Spatial and seasonal variations of Q(10) determined by soil respiration measurements at a Sierra Nevadan forest,We examined the spatial and seasonal variation of Q(I0) as an indicator of the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration based on field measurements at a young ponderosa pine plantation in the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California. We measured soil CO2 efflux and soil temperature and moisture in two 20 in x 20 m plots from June 1998 to August 1999. The Q(10) values calculated from soil temperature at 10-cm. depth ranged spatially from 1.21 to 2.63 among 18 chamber locations in the plots. Seasonally| the Q(10) values calculated on the basis of the average Soil CO2 efflux and temperature (10 cm) across the sites could vary from 1.05 to 2.3. Q(10) and soil temperature are negatively correlated through a simple linear relationship with R-2 values of 0.45| 0.40| and 0.54 for soil temperature at 5-| 10-| and 20-cm depth| respectively. However| Q(10) and soil moisture are positively correlated with R-2 values of 0.81| 0.86| and 0.51 for soil temperature at 5-| 10-| and 20-cm depth| respectively. Q(10) values derived from temperatures at different soil depths also showed considerable variation along the vertical dimension. Q(10) had a large seasonal variation with the annual minimum occurring in midsummer and the annual maximum occurring in winter. Seasonal values of Q(10) depended closely on both soil temperature and moisture. Soil temperature and moisture explained 93% of the seasonal variation in Q(10). The spatial variation of Q(10) had significant influences on the estimation of soil CO2 efflux of the ecosystem. These variations tended to affect the seasonality of the Soil CO2 efflux more than the annual average. The variations of Q(10) and its dependence on soil moisture and temperature have important implications for regional and global ecosystem carbon modeling| in particular for predicting the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to future global warming. 5468,2001,3,4,Spatial distributions of the absolute CF and CF2 radical densities in high-density plasma employing low global warming potential fluorocarbon gases and precursors for film formation,Behaviors of gas| species in electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) plasmas employing low global warming potential fluorocarbon gases of hexafluorobutadiene (C4F6) and hexafluoropropene (C3F6) with unsaturated carbon bonds together with the conventional octafluorocyclobutane (c-C4F8) are investigated. The spatial distributions of the absolute CF and CF2 radical densities are measured by combining the single-path infrared diode laser| absorption spectroscopy and laser-induced fluorescence techniques. CF2 radicals have hollow-type distributions at all conditions in the ECR plasma reactor. However| the spatial distribution of the CF radical density differs greatly from that of the CF2 radical density. Behaviors of carbon atoms measured by vacuum ultraviolet absorption spectroscopy disagree with those of CF and CF2 radical densities. The behaviors of ion and fluorine species and the gas pressure in the plasma have been also evaluated. Fluorocarbon films with low dielectric constant of about 3.0 are deposited at a high rate of 600 nm/min at high microwave powers in CA and C4F6 plasmas. The distribution of deposition rates of the film on the 8 m. Si substrate shows hill-type distributions| which are quite different from the spatial distributions of CF and CF2 radical densities. Therefore| CF and CF2 radicals do not directly contribute greatly to the growth of fluorocarbon films in these plasmas. The behaviors of C atom densities indicate the similar tendency to those of deposition rates of films. On the basis of systematically measured results of species in the plasma and film deposition rate on Si wafer| it is clarified that the C atom and polymeric species contribute dominantly to the formation of films at| a high rate in low-pressure and high-density fluorocarbon plasmas. (C) 2001 American Vacuum Society. 5453,2001,5,4,Spiroplectinata| key benthic foraminifer genus for palaeoceanographic reconstruction of the Albian Lower Saxony Basin,This paper is focused on Albian Spiroplectinata| a morphologically unique| benthic| agglutinated foraminifer genus| and its application for reconstructing changes in the water masses within the Lower Saxony Basin. A new interpretation of microhabitat preferences and feeding habit for Spiroplectinata is proposed and discussed. Their functional morphology| composition of their tests| and their relationships with adherent foraminifera suggest that at least adult individuals of Spiroplectinata were epibenthic and were either suspension or deposit feeders. The suspension-feeding mode is favoured because this genus is associated with adherent suspension-feeding foraminifera and it does not correlate with other epibenthic deposit feeders. Spiroplectinata constructed an elongated uniserial terminal part| which probably facilitated an erect position to spread a reticulopodium well above the sediment/water interface. The distribution of this foraminifer can| therefore| be used here as a sensitive indicator for the existence of bottom currents. Four (or five) periods of intensified bottom water circulation around the Early/Middle Albian boundary (S-1)| Middle (S-2)| late Middle to earliest Late Albian (S-3| probably represents two intervals) and early Late Albian (S-4) are reconstructed and well marked by maxima of Spiroplectinata annectens| S. complanata| and Spiroplectinata sp. A. S. annectens is known from strata in the Western Tethys (i.e. in the Late Aptian and Early Albian) that are older than those in the 'Boreal' realm. Its first appearance in the Lower Saxony Basin occurs in the late Early Albian| followed by the first maximum just above the Early/Middle Albian boundary| and probably represents the main immigration event into the Lower Saxony Basin. This supports the idea that the deep water in the late Early to early Late Albian 'Boreal' epicontinental sea during 'the Spiroplectinata intervals' came from the Tethys and not from the polar regions. If one interprets the plankton/benthos foraminifera ratio as reflecting sea-level changes| it implies that sea-level rises may have been responsible for opening and/or deepening of 'Boreal'/Tethyan gateways that activated extensive exchange of water masses. This late Early Albian and early Late Albian 'invasion' of Tethyan water can be correlated with a general global warming| and shifting of climate zones. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5484,2001,2,4,Stability of boreal forest stands during recent climate change: evidence from Landsat satellite imagery,Aim To detect possible expansion of boreal forest stands in response to recent warming. Previous modelling studies have concluded that major shifts in vegetation patterns| including changes in boreal forest extent| could arise during the next two centuries under global warming scenarios. However| field investigations of tree stands at ecotones have so far revealed little indication of stand response to warming during the last 100 years. This study uses a c. 25-year record of Landsat satellite observations to quantify changes in forest stand extent in two areas of northern Canada. Location Two regions of northern Canada| near Richmond Gulf| Quebec| and Great Slave Lake| north-west Territories. Methods Normalized-difference vegetation index (NDVI) plots across forest-tundra boundaries were obtained from radiometrically corrected Landsat imagery acquired during the 1970s and 1990s. These curves were evaluated to look for changes over the c. 25-year period related to forest stand expansion. Results Although forest-tundra boundaries could be clearly mapped from the satellite data| no obvious change in forest boundaries was apparent during the duration of the image time series| constraining recent geographical expansion rates to <200-300 m per century. Also| no evidence for local expansion of forest stands (e.g. within sheltered valleys) was found. Main conclusions The results are consistent with field observations| and suggest that| at the moment| boreal forest extents remain basically stable. This may reflect inherent lags between forest response and climate change| or competitive pressures between tree stands and surrounding tundra and herbaceous vegetation. 2959,2001,4,4,Statistical downscaling of GCM simulations to streamflow,A multi-tiered forecast procedure is employed to simulate real-time operational seasonal forecasts of categorized (below-normal| near-normal and above-normal) streamflow at the inlets of twelve dams of the Vaal and upper Tugela river catchments in South Africa. Forecasts are made for the December to February (DJF) season over an 8-year independent period from 1987/ 1988 to 1994/1995. A physically based model of the atmosphere system| known as a general circulation model (GCM)| is used to simulate atmospheric variability over southern Africa| the output of which is statistically downscaled to streamflow. The GCM used is the COLA T30| and is forced at the boundary with predicted monthly-mean global sea-surface temperatures. The monthly-mean sea-surface temperature fields are first predicted over lead-times of several months using a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model. GCM simulations are then obtained for an area including most of southern Africa and adjacent oceans. The GCM simulations are downscaled to catchment level from coarse resolution gridded climate variables| using a perfect prognosis approach: bias-corrected GCM simulations are substituted into the perfect prognosis equations to provide the downscaled categorized streamflow forecasts. Although surface characteristics of each catchment that affect the variability of streamflow are not considered in the proposed downscaling system| successful forecasts of streamflow categories were obtained for some of the years forecast independently. The scheme's operational utility is thus demonstrated. albeit over short lead-times. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5589,2001,4,1,Strong radiative heating due to the mixing state of black carbon in atmospheric aerosols,Aerosols affect the Earth's temperature and climate by altering the radiative properties of the atmosphere. A large positive component of this radiative forcing from aerosols is due to black carbon-soot-that is released from the burning of fossil fuel and biomass| and| to a lesser extent| natural fires| but the exact forcing is affected by how black carbon is mixed with other aerosol constituents. From studies of aerosol radiative forcing| it is known that black carbon can exist in one of several possible mixing states; distinct from other aerosol particles (externally mixed(1-7)) or incorporated within them (internally mixed(1|3|7))| or a black-carbon core could be surrounded by a well mixed shell 7. But so far it has been assumed that aerosols exist predominantly as an external mixture. Here I simulate the evolution of the chemical composition of aerosols| finding that the mixing state and direct forcing of the black-carbon component approach those of an internal mixture| largely due to coagulation and growth of aerosol particles. This finding implies a higher positive forcing from black carbon than previously thought| suggesting that the warming effect from black carbon may nearly balance the net cooling effect of other anthropogenic aerosol constituents. The magnitude of the direct radiative forcing from black carbon itself exceeds that due to CH4| suggesting that black carbon may be the second most important component of global warming after CO2 in terms of direct forcing. 2970,2001,5,4,Studies in neotropical paleobotany. XV. A Mio-Pliocene palynoflora from the Eastern Cordillera| Bolivia: Implications for the uplift history of the Central Andes,An assemblage of 33 fossil pollen and spores| recovered from the 3600-m high Pislepampa locality of E. W. Berry| Eastern Cordillera| Bolivia| adds considerably to our knowledge of three aspects of the region in late Neogene time: (1) the paleovegetation| (2) the paleoclimate| and (3) the paleoelevation of the Central Andes. The plant microfossils recognized are Isoetes| Lycopodium (three types)| Cnemidaria| Cyathea (three types)| Grammitis| Hymenophyllum| Pteris| trilete fern spores (two types)| Danaea| monolete fern spores (four types)| Podocarpus| Gramineae| Palmae| Ilex| cf. Oreopanax| Cavanillesia| cf. Pereskia| Compositae (three types)| Ericaceae| Tetrorchidium| and unknowns (three types). The diversity of the Compositae suggest that this flora has a maximum age around the Miocene-Pliocene boundary| that is| 6-7 million years. All members of the paleocommunity presently grow in the bosque montano humedo (cloud forest) along the eastern slope of the Central Andes of Bolivia| which occurs between MATs (mean annual temperatures) of similar to 10 degrees and 20 degreesC. The Pislepampa flora probably represents the lower limits of this forest because the fossil leaves collected by Berry from the same locality all have entire margins| suggesting that the flora grew near the cloud forest-tropical forest transition. Presently| the lower limit of the cloud forest forest has MATs of similar to 20 degreesC| a mean annual precipitation between 1000 and 1500 mm| and that part containing most of the identified genera of fossil pollen is found at elevations similar to 1200-1400 m. These conditions are thus inferred for the Pislepampa flora; however| because of the uncertainty of the magnitude of global climate change and of possible changes in the ecological range of plant genera| we estimate an error of at least +/- 1000 m for the paleoelevation estimate. When the total uplift is corrected for probable amounts of erosionally driven isostatic rebound| the paleoelevation estimate suggests that from one-third to one-half of the uplift of the Eastern Cordillera had occurred by the beginning of the Pliocene. This estimate is consistent with other paleoelevation estimates from the Central Andes. 5452,2001,3,4,Study on CO2 global recycling system,In order to assist in finding ways to mitigate CO2 emission and to slow the depletion of fossil fuels we have established and evaluated a representative system| which consists of three technologies developed in our laboratory. These technologies were in CO2 recovery| hydrogen production and methanol synthesis and in addition we established the necessary supporting systems. Analysis of outline designs of the large scale renewable energy power generation system and this system and energy input for building plant| energy input for running plant has been conducted based on a case using this system for a 1000-MW coal fired power plant| followed by an evaluation of the material balance and energy balance. The results are as follows. Energy efficiency is 34%| the CO2 reduction rate is 41%| the balance ratio of the energy and CO2 of the system is 2.2 and 1.8| respectively| on the assumption that the primary renewable energy is solar thermal power generation| the stationary CO2 emission source is a coal-fired power plant and the generation efficiency of the methanol power plant is 60%. By adopting the system| 3.7 million tons of CO2 can be recovered| approximately 2.7 million tons of methanol can be produced| and 15.4 billion kWh of electricity can be generated per year. Compared to generating all electrical power using only coal| approximately 2.6 million tons of coal per year can be saved and approximately 2.15 million tons of CO2 emission can be reduced. Therefore| it is clearly revealed that this system would be effective to reduce CO2 emissions and to utilize renewable energy. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2995,2001,2,4,Subaerial river bank erosion processes and their interaction with other bank erosion mechanisms on the river arrow| Warwickshire| UK,River bank erosion occurs primarily through a combination of three mechanisms: mass failure| fluvial entrainment| and subaerial weakening and weathering. Subaerial processes are often viewed as 'preparatory' processes| weakening the bank face prior to fluvial erosion. Within a river basin downstream process 'domains' occur| with subaerial processes dominating the upper reaches| fluvial erosion the middle| and mass failure the lower reaches of a river. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that (a) subaerial processes may be underestimated as an erosive agent. and (b) process dominance has a temporal| as well as spatial| aspect. Bank erosion on the River Arrow| Warwickshire| UK| was monitored for 16 months (December 1996 to March 1998) using erosion pins. Variations in the rate and aerial extent of erosion are considered with reference to meteorological data. Throughout the first 15 months all erosion recorded was subaerial. resulting in up to 181 mm a(-1) of bank retreat| compared with 13 to 27 mm a(-1) reported by previous researchers. While the role of subaerial processes as 'preparatory' is not contended| it is suggested that such processes can also be erosive. The three bank erosion mechanisms operate at different levels of magnitude and frequency| and the River Arrow data demonstrate this. Thus the concept of process dominance has a temporal| as well as spatial aspect. particularly over the short time-periods often used for studying processes in the field| Perception of the relative efficacy of each erosive mechanism will therefore be influenced by the temporal scale at which the bank is considered. With the advent of global climate change. both these magnitude-frequency characteristics and the consequent interaction of bank erosion mechanisms may alter. It is therefore likely that recognition of this temporal aspect of process dominance will become increasingly important to studies of bank erosion processes. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 5500,2001,3,4,Surface emission of landfill gas from solid waste landfill,The surface emission of landfill gas (LFG) was studied to estimate the amount of LFG efflux from solid waste landfills using an air flux chamber. LFG efflux increased as atmospheric temperature increased during the day| and the same pattern for the surface emission was observed for the change of seasons. LFG efflux rate decreased from summer through winter. The average LFG efflux rates of winter| spring and summer were 0.1584| 0.3013 and 0.8597 m(3) m(-2) h(-1) respectively. The total amount of surface emission was calculated based on the seasonal LFG efflux rate and the landfill surface area. From the estimates of LFG generation| it is expected that about 30% of the generated LFG may be released through the surface without extraction process. As forced extraction with a blower proceeded| the extraction well pressure decreased from 1100 to -100 mm H2O| and the LFG surface efflux decreased markedly above 80%. Thus| the utilization of LFG by forced extraction would be the good solution for global warming and air pollution by LFG. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5612,2001,4,4,Surface energy- and water balance in a high-arctic environment in NE Greenland,Within the framework of the European LAPP-project (Land Arctic Physical Processes) and as part of the Danish Research Council's Polar Programme| studies on water and surface energy balance in NE Greenland were conducted in 1996 and 1997. Eddy correlation measurements of water vapour and sensible heat fluxes above the three dominant vegetation types: fen| willow snowbed| and heath were conducted for the entire growing season. This was supplemented by measurements of evaporation from snow covered areas and from a small pond. The evapotranspiration was found to be relatively high with the maximum from the fen (approximate to 86 per season). For the two other vegetation types the evapotranspiration was less| for heath 61 mm per season| while willow snowbed had evaporation rates on intermediate level. By use of the Penman-Monteith equation it was possible to estimate the altitude dependence of the evapotranspiration and calculate the annual evaporation for the whole area to 80 mm per year. By applying a bucket model the evaporation was found to be in accordance with changes in soil moisture as monitored with TDR. The observed surface water balance was compared to river discharge| which shows a glacio-nival regime with an early spring flow (June)| determined by the snow melt in the main valley and an July-August maximum determined by melt on higher plateau areas. When balancing the individual hydrological components an annual deficit of 180 mm was observed| but it was found that this deficit could be reduced by correcting for aerodynamic and altitude effects on the precipitation. Finally some of the possible consequences of a global warming is discussed in relation to the water and energy balance in the high-arctic ecosystem. 5495,2001,4,3,Surface measurements of global warming causing atmospheric constituents in Korea,The expansion of the industrial economy and the increase of population in Northeast Asian countries have caused much interest in climate monitoring related to global warming. However| new techniques and better platforms for the measurement of global warming and regional databases are still old-fashioned and are not being developed sufficiently. With respect to this agenda| since 1993| at the request of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)| to monitor functions of global warming| the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has set up a Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Station on the western coast of Korea (Anmyun-do) and has been actively monitoring global warming over Northeast Asia. In addition| atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has been measured for a similar KMA global warming program at Kosan| Cheju Island since 1990. Aerosol and radiation have also been measured at both sites as well as in Seoul. The observations have been analyzed using diagnostics of climate change in Northeast Asia and also have been internationally compared. Results indicate that greenhouse gases are in good statistic agreement with the NOAA/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) long-term trends of monthly mean concentrations and seasonal cycles. Atmospheric particulate matter has also been analyzed for particular Asian types in terms of optical depth| number concentration and size distribution. 5441,2001,2,4,Survival and development of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera : Culicidae) larvae under a seasonally changing environment in Nagasaki| Japan,Survival and development of larvae of Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) were examined under field conditions on the campus of Nagasaki University School of Medicine| Nagasaki| Japan| to explore the possibility of the establishment of Ae. aegypti in Kyusyu| southern Japan| Exposure experiments with hatched larvae were conducted 11 times at about 1-mo intervals from January 1998 to January 1999. In both species| larvae could develop to adults under field conditions from April to November| but not in January| February| and December 1998. In March 1998| only Ae. albopictus could develop to adults. The results suggest that there are differences in the resistance of hatched larvae to low temperatures between Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and a threshold air temperature of larval development below 10 degreesC for both species. To estimate the threshold temperatures of larval development| the relationships between the average air temperature and the developmental rate observed in March-November 1998 were analyzed by linear regression analysis. The estimated threshold air temperatures for Ae. aegypti were 8.52 and 9.45 degreesC for females and males| respectively| and were higher than those of Ae. albopictus. A clear seasonal change was also observed in the body size of pupae. In both species| body size was largest at the beginning of the breeding season and continuously became gradually smaller until July. The results were compared with those from previous field studies in Nagasaki and the possibility of the establishment of Ae. aegypti in Nagasaki| Japan| is discussed from the viewpoint of adaptive life history to seasonally changing environments. 3019,2001,5,4,Synchronous tropical South China Sea SST change and Greenland warming during deglaciation,The tropical ocean plays a major role in global climate| It is therefore crucial to establish the precise phase between tropical and high-latitude climate variability during past abrupt climate events in order to gain insight into the mechanisms of global climate change. Here we present alkenone sea surface temperature (SST) records from the tropical South China Sea that show an abrupt temperature increase of at least 1 degreesC at the end of the Last glacial period. Within the recognized dating uncertainties| this SST increase is synchronous with the Bolling warming observed at 14.6 thousand years ago in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core. 3002,2001,2,4,Synthesis and analysis of biomass and net primary productivity in Chinese forests,An extant dataset is presented on biomass and net primary productivity (NPP) of 6 forest biomes| including 690 stands from 17 forest types of China. Data on latitude| longitude| elevation| field measurements of stand age| leaf area index (LAI) and total biomass were collected for 29 provinces from forestry inventory data of the Forestry Ministry of China| as well as a wide range of published literature. The individual site-based NPP was estimated from field biomass measurements based on a common methodology. The range of measured LAI| biomass and estimated NPP is from 0.17 to 41.78 m(2) m(-2) (mean = 8.94)| from 31.14 to 1569.85 t ha(-1) (means = 185.41)| and from 2.41 to 40.27 t ha(-1) yr(-1) (mean = 14.4)| respectively. Analyses and synthesis between NPP and environmental factors showed that| in eastern China| NPP of forests increases from north to south| whereas NPP of major forests in southern China decreases in relation to longitude from east to west. In mountainous areas| the distribution of NPP is related to elevation. On a regional basis| the NPP of Chinese forests is highly correlated with annual mean temperature and rainfall| as well as the annual potential evapotranspiration| especially on the basis of site-based comparison. Strong positive correlation also existed between NPP and growing degree-days on a 0 degreesC base and on a 5 degreesC base. These all indicated that temperature and moisture are the dominant factors controlling the spatial distribution of NPP in China. A site-based comparison between estimated NPP and NPP modelled by the BIOME3 model showed a fair agreement with a linear regression. A higher correlation occurred in the forest-based comparison between estimated and modelled NPP| whereas the highest correlation was found in the plant functional type (PFT)-based comparison. However| there are many limitations in the current data set and methodologies| such as the lack of some components of biomass and NPP| especially with respect to root production. More detailed field measurements and methodologies covering all components of NPP should be addressed in China in the future. 2983,2001,4,4,Temperature effects on the dynamics of Aedes albopictus (Diptera : Culicidae) populations in the laboratory,We investigated how constant temperatures of 22| 24| and 26 degreesC experienced across the full life cycle affected the dynamics of caged populations of Aedes albopictus (Skuse). All cages were equipped with plastic beakers that served as sites for oviposition and larval development. We measured the per capita daily mortality and emergence rates of the adults and size of adult females| and estimated the intrinsic rate of increase (r) and asymptotic density (K) for each adult population. populations at 26 degreesC had greater intrinsic rates of increase and lower asymptotic densities than populations at 22 and 24 degreesC. Populations at high temperatures initially had greater daily. per capita emergence rates| and steeper. declines in per capita emergence rate as density increased over tire course of the experiment| There was no temperature effect on the size of adult females nor on the per capita daily mortality rate of adults. Results indicated that populations of Ae. albopictus occurring in regions with relatively high summer temperatures are likely to have hiyh rates of population growth with populations of adults peaking early in the season. These populations mn)l attain relatively. low peak densities of adults. Populations occurring in regions with low summer temperatures are likely to experience slow| steady production of adults throughout the season with population size peaking later in the season| and may attain higher peal| densities of adults. Nigh temperature conditions| associated with climate change| may increase the rate of spread of Ae| albopictus by increasing rates of increase and by. enhancing colonization due to rapid population growth. 5588,2001,3,4,Temperature resolved modeling of plasma abatement of perfluorinated compounds,Plasma abatement of perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) is a technology of increasing interest as the semiconductor industry seeks to reduce emission of these global warming gases. This article reports a simulation of point-of-use plasma abatement| in which a high density abatement plasma is placed between the process tool turbomolecular pump and the roughing pump. Oxygen is added to convert the feed PFCs to oxidized species that can then be scrubbed downstream. The simulation is used to examine the transport and chemistry that occurs in these plasmas. Two-dimensional plasma and neutral transport models are coupled to a description of gas and surface plasma chemistry. The simulation shows that| at high electron density and low neutral density| abatement of CF4 is governed by electron impact dissociation. Both the model and experimental measurements predict high peak neutral temperatures (> 1500 K) that play a large role in determining the characteristics of these plasmas. (C) 2001 American Institute of Physics. 5592,2001,2,4,Temperature responses of carbon mineralization in conifer forest soils from different regional climates incubated under standard laboratory conditions,C-14-labelled straw was mixed with soils collected from seven coniferous forests located on a climatic gradient in Western Europe ranging from boreal to Mediterranean conditions. The soils were incubated in the laboratory at 4 degrees| 10 degrees| 16 degrees| 23 degrees and 30 degreesC with constant moisture over 550 days. The temperature coefficient (Q(10)) for straw carbon mineralization decreased with increasing incubation temperatures. This was a characteristic of all the soils with a difference of two Q(10) units between the 4-10 degrees and the 23-30 degreesC temperature ranges. It was also found that the magnitude of the temperature response function was related to the period of soil incubation. Initial temperature responses of microbial communities were different to those shown after a long period of laboratory incubation and may have reflected shifts in microbial species composition in response to changes in the temperature regime. The rapid exhaustion of the labile fractions of the decomposing material at higher temperatures could also lead to underestimation of the temperature sensitivity of soils unless estimated for carbon pools of similar qualities. Finally| the thermal optima for the organic soil horizons (Of and Oh) were lower than 30 degreesC even after 550 days of incubation. It was concluded that these responses could not be attributed to microbial physiological adaptations| but rather to the rates at which recalcitrant microbial secondary products were formed at higher temperatures. The implication of these variable temperature responses of soil materials is discussed in relation to modelling potential effects of global warming. 3003,2001,5,4,Terminal Pleistocene/early Holocene environmental change at the sunshine locality| north-central Nevada| USA,Sedimentological| faunal| and archaeological investigations at the Sunshine Locality| Long Valley| Nevada reveal a history of human adaptation and environmental change at the last glacial-interglacial transition in North America's north-central Great Basin. The locality contains a suite of lacustrine| alluvial| and eolian deposits associated with fluvially reworked faunal remains and Paleoindian artifacts. Radiocarbon-dated stratigraphy indicates a history of receding pluvial lake levels followed by alluvial down-cutting and subsequent valley filling with marsh-like conditions at the end of the Pleistocene. A period of alluvial deposition and shallow water tables (9|800 to 11|000 C-14 yr B.P.) correlates to the Younger Dryas. Subsequent drier conditions and reduced surface runoff mark the early Holocene; sand dunes replace wetlands by 8|000 C-14 Yr B.P. The stratigraphy at Sunshine is similar to sites located 400 km south and supports regional climatic synchroneity in the central and southern Great Basin during the terminal Pleistocene/early Holocene| Given regional climate change and recurrent geomorphic settings comparable to Sunshine| we believe that there is a high potential for buried Paleoindian features in primary association with extinct fauna elsewhere in the region yet to be discovered due to limited stratigraphic exposure and consequent low visibility. (C) 2001 University of Washington. 5426,2001,2,4,The biology of larvae from the reef coral Porites astreoides| and their response to temperature disturbances,Pelagic larvae play a fundamental role in the life history of virtually all scleractinian corals| yet much of their biology remains unexplored. One aspect of coral larvae - their response to temperature perturbations has potentially important consequences for understanding the effects of global warming and El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on coral recruitment. The present study tests the effects of temperature perturbations on coral larvae using Porites astreoides larvae as a model system. In June 1999| larvae were collected from 18 m depth on Conch Reef| Florida| and incubated at ambient (28 degreesC)| depressed (26 degreesC)| and elevated (33 degreesC) temperatures in outdoor tanks shaded from direct sunlight. Treatments were repeated with new larvae every 24 h| and treatment effects quantified as larval motility| mortality. metamorphosis and metabolism. Elevated temperature significantly increased mortality and metamorphosis| and a similar trend was observed at the reduced temperature| although this was not significant. Neither elevated nor reduced temperatures affected larval motility. Gross photosynthesis (P) was significantly depressed by elevated and reduced temperatures| and respiration (R) varied proportionately with temperature (Q(10)approximate to2)| although this effect was not statistically Significant. At the highest temperature the P/R ratio declined to < 1| indicating that thermal stress reduces the potential for autotrophy. Together| these results suggest that elevated temperatures affect coral larvae by depressing photosynthesis and creating an energy shortage| which ultimately could reduce recruitment (by increasing mortality)| shorten larval longevity and favor premature metamorphosis. An unexpected finding was that larvae differed physiologically among release dates. Although preliminary| this suggests that larval fitness in Porites spp. may vary depending on the day of release| a phenomenon that could have significant ramifications with respect to the population structure of adults. 2956,2001,3,4,The challenge of deep ocean drilling for natural gas hydrate,Large reservoirs of natural gas hydrate have been sampled extensively by past DSDP| ODP| and other scientific ocean drilling. Gas hydrate is an ice-like solid consisting of gas molecules| commonly methane| trapped in a cage of water molecules. Global estimates of the methane content of natural gas hydrate are very large| potentially enormous. Such large quantities of gas hydrate could be important as a clean energy source| as a control in global climate| and as a factor in seafloor slumps and slides. Gas hydrate occurs only in water depths greater than about 600 m at temperate latitudes| but occurs on land and in shallow water in the Arctic. The formation mechanisms of gas hydrates are only partly understood. Gas hydrate appears to be formed usually by migrating fluids carrying biologically generated methane upward to regions of sufficiently low temperature and high pressure where the hydrate is stable. Quantitative aspects of this formation model need testing| however| and questions remain about the sources and sinks for methane| and the amount that can reach the atmosphere. In Canada| gas hydrates are found on most of its continental margins| notably on the continental slope off Vancouver Island and in the Mackenzie Delta-Beaufort Sea region. A drilling program off Vancouver Island would examine gas hydrates in a well-studied accretionary sedimentary wedge; such sediments appear to be the most common environment in which hydrates are found globally. Drilling for gas hydrate offshore in the Canadian Arctic| perhaps using an alternative drilling platform| would complement a current onshore Arctic gas hydrate drilling program in the permafrost environment. The Arctic land and shallow sea hydrate are important because such hydrate is especially susceptible to global climate change. 2990,2001,2,4,The compositions| sources| and size distribution of the dust storm from China in spring of 2000 and its impact on the global environment,The average mass concentration of the aerosols in Beijing during the dust storm in the spring of 2000 was similar to 6000 mug . m(-3|) similar to 30 times as high as that in the non-dust storm days. The enrichment factors of the pollution elements As| W and Se were higher than those in the non-dust storm days. This indicated that As| Sb and Se resulted from the pollution sources of those areas| through which the dust storm passed during their long-range transport| in addition to the local pollution sources in Beijing| The enrichment factors of the Pb| Zn| Cd and Cu were much less than those in the cion-dust storm days| suggesting that the local pollution sources in Beijing area contributed to them mostly| The enrichment factors of elements Al| Fe| Sc| Mn| Na| Ni| Cr| V and Co were close to 1| showing that these elements originated from crust| The concentration of S in the dust storm was similar to 10 mug . m(-3)| 4 times as high as that in non-dust storm. S in the aerosols resulted from the adsorption of gaseous SO2 and the consequent transformation on it. The aerosols of the dust storm contained 16.1% and 76.9% of fine particles with the sizes less than 2.1 and 9.0 mum| respectively| while it had a large number of coarse particles| It was noted that a considerable portion of Fe(II) was detected from the dust storm. Fe(II) could easily dissolve in seawater to be nutrient for phytoplankton and would lead to the increase of the emission of dimethylsulfide (DMS) from the ocean. The feedbacks of Fe coupled with S in atmosphere might be the important mechanism that would affect the primary productivity in Pacific and/or the global climate change. 5670,2001,3,4,The development and improvement of energy efficient refrigerators,The growing concerns over global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions have pushed the appliance industry to further improve energy efficiency of its products. Refrigerator-freezers (RF)| as one of the major home appliances| consume about one-fifth of the electricity in a household| and its life expectancy could be as long as 10-15 years. In response to future stricter regulations| several design options were considered For improving the energy efficiency of a conventionally designed domestic RF. The options| such as insulation improvements obtained by using vacuum insulation panels (VIPs)| energy saving defrost control| and high-efficiency compressors were examined in a prototype RF. The energy consumption of the original 1997 production refrigerator-freezer was selected as the baseline in order to compare the measured energy savings of each option and the combined options on the prototype refrigerator-freezer. This study has reached a goal to develop a prototype that has an energy consumption rate of 20% less than the baseline model. 2966,2001,4,4,The effect of sea spray evaporation on tropical cyclone boundary layer structure and intensity,Strong winds in a tropical cyclone over the ocean can produce high seas with substantial amounts of spray in the lower part of the atmospheric boundary layer. The effects that the evaporation of this sea spray may have on the transfer of energy between the ocean and the atmosphere| and consequent effects on the boundary layer structure| cumulus convection| and the evolution of the tropical cyclone| are largely unknown. In this study| a high-resolution tropical cyclone model with explicit cloud microphysics| developed by Y. Wang| has been used to study these potential effects. The sea spray evaporation is incorporated into the model by two bulk parameterization schemes with quite different properties. The numerical results show that inclusion of the Fairall et at. sea spray parameterization increases the direct sensible heat flux from the ocean by about 70%| but has little effect on the direct latent heat flux. Sea spray itself causes a sensible heat flux of only about 6% of the direct sensible heat flux| while it contributes a latent heat flux by evaporation of sea spray droplets by 60%-70% of the direct latent heat flux. As a result| the total enthalpy flux with sea spray evaporation increases by about 20%| while the net contribution by sea spray is only about 1.5% of the total enthalpy flux. Consistent with this| the intensity of the model tropical cyclone is moderately increased by 8% in the maximum wind speed by the introduction of sea spray. The lower atmosphere becomes cooler and moister due to the evaporation of sea spray| which is supported by the available observations. The cooling in the surface layer further modifies the boundary layer structure and the activity of convection| especially in the near-core region where the highest concentration of sea spray exists. On the other hand| with the Andreas and DeCosmo parameterization scheme| the intensity of the model tropical cyclone is increased by 25% in maximum wind speed. This dramatic increase in the model tropical cyclone intensity is due to both the large net sensible heat flux and the latent heat flux associated with the effect of sea spray by this parameterization scheme. The net upward sensible heat flux warms the air near the surface and results in a near-isotherm al surface layer in the near-core environment under the tropical cyclone. Such a structure| however| is not supported by the available observations| which the authors argue is not physically realistic. The radically different results with this scheme are due to the unusual way that the feedbacks between direct and spray-mediated fluxes are handled within the parameterization. 5421,2001,2,4,The effects of climate change on Merriam's kangaroo rat| Dipodomys merriami,We examined the relationship between body size of Dipodomys merriami and specific climate variables for the years 1989 through 1996 at the Sevilleta LTER Station. Earlier work demonstrated a 2-3 degreesC increase in both summer and winter temperatures at Sevilleta over this time period. In that study| Neotoma albigula's adult mean body mass decreased as temperature increased. Dipodomys merriami's adult mean body mass differed significantly among years for both sexes but there was no trend across years. There was also no relationship to climate variables. Abundance showed a positive relationship with one axis of a PCA of the correlated climate variables. (C) 2001 Academic Press. 5409,2001,3,3,The evaluation of hexafluorobenzene as an environmentally benign dielectric etch chemistry,Hexafluorobenzene was evaluated as an alternative chemistry for dielectric etch applications in a high density plasma etch chamber with reduced global warming emissions. Processes based on hexafluorobenzene exhibited global warming emissions reductions as high as 97% compared to a C3F8-based process| which is the greatest reductions level of any alternative chemistry examined to date on this tool. Using hexafluorobenzene| it is possible to operate in a regime of high etch rate and high polymerization. There are several issues| however| that need to be addressed if this chemistry is to be used for high performance dielectric etching. This material is a liquid at room temperature| which makes it difficult to deliver process gas to the chamber. In addition| this chemistry is highly polymerizing| resulting in excess polymer deposition on chamber walls leading to significant process variability for standard chamber clean times. Significantly longer chamber clean times were required between each etch to remove the excess polymer. (C) 2001 The Electrochemical Society. 5539,2001,2,4,The frost resistance of ericoid heath plants in the British Isles in relation to their biogeography,Aim To determine whether rare British ericoid heaths are restricted to the oceanic fringes of south-western England and western Ireland because of their sensitivity to frost. Location The Wirral Peninsula| Cheshire| England. Shoots of the common heaths (Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull| Erica tetralix L.| Erica cinerea L.) were obtained from Thurstaston Heath and those of the rarer heaths (E. mackaiana Bab.| E. ciliaris L.| E. erigena R. Ross and E. vagans L.) from collections of known provenance in Ness Gardens. Methods Frost resistance of cut shoots was determined at approximately monthly intervals between February 1994 and March 1995. Shoots were exposed to a range of freezing temperatures and scored for damage. Freezing resistance was determined as the temperature that caused 50% damage to the shoots. Results The frost resistance of the common heaths was in accord with their geographical distribution. Calluna vulgaris and E. tetralix extend furthest north and east in Europe and developed the greatest frost resistance in winter ( < -20We analyse the new ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) D2 cloud data to ascertain whether or not a connection between cosmic ray flux and cloud cover exists. Our results indicate that only the low-level cloud follows solar activity over the full period| 1983-1994. Using several proxies for solar activity and the radiative forcing for the ISCCP cloud types| we estimate the possible impact that such a solar-terrestrial connection may have on climate. We conclude that| possibly excluding the most recent decades| much of the warming of the past century can be quantitatively accounted for by the direct and indirect effects of solar activity.
3045,2001,3,4,The potential impact of conservation practices in US agriculture on global climate change,Increase in the use of conservation practices by agriculture in the United States will enhance soil organic carbon and potentially increase carbon sequestration. This| in turn| will decrease the net emission of carbon dioxide. A number of studies exist that calibrate the contribution of various individual| site-specific conservation practices on changes in soil organic carbon. There is a general absence| however| of a comprehensive effort to measure objectively the contribution of these practices including conservation tillage| the Conservation Reserve Program| and conservation buffer strips to change in soil organic carbon. This paper fills that void. After recounting the evolution of the use of the various conservation practices| it is estimated that organic carbon in the soil in 1998 in the United States attributable to these practices was about 12.2 million metric tons. By 2008| there will be an increase of about 25 percent. Given that there is a significant potential for conservation practices to lead to an increase in carbon sequestration| there are a number of policy options that can be pursued. (C) 2001 by The Haworth Press| Inc. All rights reserved. 5548,2001,2,4,The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States,Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather| anthropogenic emissions| and biogenic emissions and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. Local temperature| precipitation| clouds| atmospheric water vapor. wind speed| and wind direction influence atmospheric chemical processes| and interactions occur between local and global-scale environments. If the climate becomes warmer and more variable| air quality is likely to be affected. However| the specific types of change (i.e.| local| regional| or global)| the direction of change in a particular location (i.e.| positive or negative)| and the magnitude of change in air quality that may be attributable to climate change are a matter of speculation| based on extrapolating present understanding to future scenarios. There is already extensive evidence on the health effects of air pollution. Ground-level ozone can exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases and cause short-term reductions in lung function. Exposure to particulate matter can aggravate chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases| alter host defenses| damage lung tissue| lead to premature death| and possibly contribute to cancer. Health effects of exposures to carbon monoxide| sulfur dioxide| and nitrogen dioxide can include reduced work capacity| aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases| effects on pulmonary function| respiratory illnesses| lung irritation| and alterations in the lung's defense systems. Adaptations to climate change should include ensuring responsiveness of air quality protection programs to changing pollution levels. Research needs include basic atmospheric science work on the association between weather and air pollutants; improving air pollution models and their linkage with climate change scenarios; and closing gaps in the understanding of exposure patterns and health effects. 5547,2001,2,4,The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States,Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change? may alter the frequency| timing| intensity| and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events| including precipitation during hurricanes| raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects| mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure| also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes| warning systems| disaster policies| evacuation plans| and relief efforts. There are many federal| state| and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation. 5546,2001,2,4,The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States,Heat and heat waves are projected to increase in severity and frequency with increasing global mean temperatures. Studies in urban areas show an association between increases in mortality and increases in heat| measured by maximum or minimum temperature| heat index| and sometimes| other weather conditions. Health effects associated with exposure to extreme and prolonged heat appear to be related to environmental temperatures above those to which the population is accustomed. Models of weather-mortality relationships indicate that populations in northeastern and midwestern U.S. cities are likely to experience the greatest number of illnesses and deaths in response to changes in summer temperature. Physiologic and behavioral adaptations may reduce morbidity and mortality. Within heat-sensitive regions| urban populations are the most vulnerable to adverse heat-related health outcomes. The elderly| young children| the poor| and people who are bedridden or are on certain medications are at particular risk. Heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable through behavioral adaptations| including the use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Overall death rates are higher in winter than in summer| and it is possible that milder winters could reduce deaths in winter months. However| the relationship between winter weather and mortality is difficult to interpret. Other adaptation measures include heat emergency plans| warning systems| and illness management plans. Research is needed to identify critical weather parameters| the associations between beat and nonfatal illnesses| the evaluation of implemented heat response plans| and the effectiveness of urban design in reducing heat retention. 5594,2001,3,3,The present| past| and future contributions to global warming of CO2 emissions from fuels,The objective of this paper is to emphasize the responsibility of developed countries to implement the Climate Convention| as well as the role of developing countries in CO2 emissions control while sustaining their rights to increase energy consumption per capita during the development process. It is shown that the growth in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption in North America| excluding Mexico| from 1990 to 1996 was 3.7 times higher than that of Latin America in absolute terms. The cumulative contribution to global warming| expressed as the mass of the gas multiplied by time (GtCy)| can be calculated as the integration of the atmospheric concentration of the emitted gas along time| with a weight function in the integrand to simulate the climate response. To simulate climate response| we used the superposition of exponential decay functions with different decay constants. The historical contributions of the OECD countries| the Eastern European countries and the ex-Soviet Union| and from all developing countries are considered. The future contributions are computed in three scenarios. All of them show that emissions from Non-Annex I countries will become higher than those of Annex I countries soon after 2010| while the curves of atmospheric concentration will cross one another later| not much before 2050| and the respective contributions to global temperature increase will cross about 2090. 3023,2001,4,4,The role of biota in global climate change,The problem of global climate change is analyzed in the context of the balance of interdependent biotic sources and reservoirs of greenhouse gases in the continental part of northern Eurasia. Current problems are identified and the prospects for further studies of the problem are outlined. 5402,2001,2,2,The science of global warming,There is strong scientific evidence that the average temperature of the earth's surface is rising as a result of the increased concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere owing to human activities| especially the burning of fossil fuels| coal| oil| and gas. This global warming will lead to substantial changes of climate| many of which will impact human communities in deleterious ways. In terms of the likely global pattern of climate change over the twenty-first century| in the absence of any mitigating action the global average temperature is likely to rise by between about 1-5 and 5-5degreesC and sea level by about half a metre (range 0(.)1-0(.)9 m). The hydrological cycle is likely to be more intense (leading in some places to more frequent and more intense floods and droughts) and the rate of climate change is likely to be substantially greater than the earth has experienced over at least the last ten thousand years. It is particularly to this rapid rate of change that it will be difficult for many ecosystems and for humans to adapt. Action has been taken by the world's scientists through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess as thoroughly as possible knowledge regarding the basic science and the impacts| including an assessment of the uncertainties. The world's governments have also taken action in setting up the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) at the Earth Summit in 1992 and at subsequent meetings of the parties to that convention| especially that at Kyoto in 1997. In order to mitigate climate change the FCCC in its article 2 has set the objective of stabilisation of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level and on a timescale consistent with the needs both of the environment and of sustainable development. Such stabilisation will eventually demand severe cuts in global emissions| for instance of carbon dioxide| to levels well below today's by the second half of the twenty-first century. To achieve the required reductions in the emissions of carbon dioxide| three possibilities are available| to sequester carbon dioxide resulting from the burning of fossil fuels rather than releasing it to the atmosphere| to become much more efficient in the generation and use of energy| and to provide for energy supply from non-fossiI fuel sources. This article will summarise the science of climate change including the evidence for it and will describe the main impacts| the actions taken so far| and the further actions that are likely to be necessary to mitigate climate change. 3012,2001,2,3,The sensitivity of Australian fire danger to climate change,Global climate change| such as that due to the proposed enhanced greenhouse effect| is likely to have a significant effect on biosphere-atmosphere interactions| including bushfire regimes. This study quantifies the possible impact of climate change on fire regimes by estimating changes in fire weather and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FDI)| an index that is used throughout Australia to estimate fire danger. The CSIRO 9-level general circulation model (CSIRO9 GCM) is used to simulate daily and seasonal fire danger for the present Australian climate and for a doubled-CO(2) climate. The impact assessment includes validation of the GCMs daily control simulation and the derivation of 'correction factors' which improve the accuracy of the fire danger simulation. In summary| the general impact of doubled-CO(2) is to increase fire danger at all sites by increasing the number of days of very high and extreme fire danger. Seasonal fire danger responds most to the large CO(2)-induced changes in maximum temperature. 5486,2001,3,3,The source and abatement of nitrous oxide emissions produced from the aerobic treatment of pig slurry to remove surplus nitrogen,The removal of surplus nitrogen from pig slurry can be necessary in order to avoid pollution such as nitrate leaching. However| the treatment itself can create significant pollution; up to 20% of the removed slurry nitrogen has been shown to be released as nitrous oxide (N2O)| which contributes to global warming and the breakdown of the ozone in the stratosphere. Avoiding such emission requires conditions that encourage the complete conversion of the nitrogen to the environmentally safe di-nitrogen gas (N-2)| and a clear understanding of the underlying biochemistry; for example| whether the nitrous oxide is the bi-product of incomplete nitrification (chemical oxidation) or denitrification (chemical reduction). The stable isotope of nitrogen (N-15) was used in this investigation as a label. Results indicated a new route for substantial release of N2O: via nitrification (rather than denitrification)| caused by a combination of high aeration levels and the presence of nitrification products. Sequential aeration| which leads to a cycling between nitrification and complete denitrification| was proposed as an abatement in view of this new mechanism. This process achieved 89% removal of ammoniacal nitrogen in laboratory scale treatment| with 94% of the nitrogen removed in the form of N-2. These findings suggest that the possibility of N2O emissions from nitrification be considered in the design of treatment schemes. Increased aeration would be the intuitive response to incomplete nitrification. However| the results of this study suggested that although this response can increase nitrogen removal| this may be as N2O rather than N-2. 5628,2001,4,4,The surface radiative forcing of nitric acid for northern mid-latitudes,Ground-based| high-resolution measurements of downward atmospheric thermal emission spectra are reported for a northern mid-latitude location for summer and winter conditions. These measurements clearly show the presence of the 11.3-mum thermal emission band of nitric acid situated between 850-920 cm(-1). By using the FASCOD3 line-by-line radiation code to simulate the background thermal emission| the measured seasonally averaged surface radiative forcing due to nitric acid is determined to be 0.055 W m(-2) +/- 15%. The zenith column amounts of nitric acid are found to vary between 7.9 x 10(15) and 1.1 x 10(16) molecules cm(-2) +/- 15%. An estimation is made of the contribution of nitric acid to the direct radiative forcing of the Earth's surface since pre-industrial times for northern mid-latitudes. This work suggests that nitric acid may play a role that is comparable to that of other greenhouse gases| such as CFC-11| in the forcing of the Earth's climate system. Under polluted conditions| nitric acid may contribute about half of the radiative forcing that is currently associated with tropospheric ozone. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 3043,2001,4,4,The use of decision support tools in participatory river basin management,There are growing demands for effective public participation in river basin management. These are posed among others by the proposed EU Water Framework Directive as well as international conventions and policy documents. The demands will raise a need for guidance on exactly how the public is to be involved. In public participation 'decision support tools' (DST) and integrated modelling can have a role to play. Many computer tools not only can serve as tools for analysis for experts| but also as vehicles for communication| training| forecasting and experimentation. Illustrated by selected examples of software a range of tools and their potential applications are presented. Essential for the added-value of computer tools in stakeholder participation| in comparison to other methods like expert presentations| fact sheets| etc.| is the way they are used. Lessons can be drawn from projects where computer tools were used in other policy areas. Within an European research project on energy and climate policy (ULYSSES) integrated models on global climate change were used in integrated assessment (IA) focus groups. A web-based tutorial for the use of computer models was developed. It gives guidelines for the design and setup of participatory arrangements in conjunction with computer models. Besides procedural recommendations lessons can be drawn concerning the kind of output the tools should provide and the early involvement of users is modelling and software development. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5492,2001,2,4,Thermolysis of fluoropolymers as a potential source of halogenated organic acids in the environment,Following the introduction of hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs) gases as replacements for the ozone-destroying chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)| it has been discovered that HCFCs/HFCs can degrade in the atmosphere to produce trifluoroacetic acid(1)| a compound with no known loss mechanisms in the environment(2|3)| and higher concentrations in natural waters(4) have been shown to be mildly phytotoxic(5). Present environmental levels of trifluooracetic acid are not accounted by HCFC/HFC degradation alone(8-10). Here we report that thermolysis of fluorinated polymers| such as the commercial polymers Teflon and Kel-F| can also produce trifluoroacetate and the similar compound chlorodifluoroacetate. This can occur either directly| or indirectly via products that are known to degrade to these haloacetates in the atmosphere(11). The environmental significance of these findings is confirmed by modelling| which indicates that the thermolysis of fluoropolymers in industrial and consumer high-temperature applications (ovens| nonstick cooking utensils and combustion engines) is likely to be a significant source of trifluoroacetate in urban rain water (similar to 25 ng l(-1)| as estimated for Toronto). Thermolysis also leads to longer chain polyfluoro- and/or polychlorofluoro- (C3-C14) carboxylic acids which may be equally persistent. Some of these products have recently been linked with possible adverse health(6) and environmental impacts and are being phased out of the US market(7). Furthermore| we detected CFCs and fluorocarbons- groups that can destroy ozone and act as greenhouse gases| respectively-among the other thermal degradation products| suggesting that continued use of fluoropolymers may also exacerbate stratospheric ozone-depletion and global warming. 2976,2001,5,4,Time-series analysis of delta C-13 from tree rings. I. Time trends and autocorrelation,Univariate time-series analyses were conducted on stable carbon isotope ratios obtained from tree-ring cellulose. We looked for the presence and structure of autocorrelation. Significant autocorrelation violates the statistical independence assumption and biases hypothesis tests. Its presence would indicate the existence of lagged physiological effects that persist for longer than the current year. We analyzed data from 28 trees (60-85 years old; mean = 73 years) of western white pine (Pinus monticola Dougl.)| ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.)| and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. glauca) growing in northern Idaho. Material was obtained by the stem analysis method from rings laid down in the upper portion of the crown throughout each tree's life. The sampling protocol minimized variation caused by changing light regimes within each tree. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models were used to describe the autocorrelation structure over time. Three time series were analyzed for each tree: the stable carbon isotope ratio (delta C-13); discrimination (Delta); and the difference between ambient and internal CO2 concentrations (c(a) - c(i)). The effect of converting from ring cellulose to whole-leaf tissue did not affect the analysis because it was almost completely removed by the detrending that precedes time-series analysis. A simple linear or quadratic model adequately described the time trend. The residuals from the trend had a constant mean and variance| thus ensuring stationarity| a requirement for autocorrelation analysis. The trend over time for c(a) - c(i) was particularly strong (R-2 = 0.290.84). Autoregressive moving average analyses of the residuals from these trends indicated that two-thirds of the individual tree series contained significant autocorrelation| whereas the remaining third were random (white noise) over time. We were unable to distinguish between individuals with and without significant autocorrelation beforehand. Significant ARMA models were all of low order| with either first- or second-order (i.e.| lagged 1 or 2 years| respectively) models performing well. A simple autoregressive (AR(1))| model was the most common. The most useful generalization was that the same ARMA model holds for each of the three series (delta C-13| Delta| c(a) - c(i)) for an individual tree| if the time trend has been properly removed for each series. The mean series for the two pine species were described by first-order ARMA models (1-year lags)| whereas the Douglas-fir mean series were described by second-order models (2-year lags) with negligible first-order effects. Apparently| the process of constructing a mean time series for a species preserves an underlying signal related to delta C-13 while canceling some of the random individual tree variation. Furthermore| the best model for the overall mean series (e.g.| for a species) cannot be inferred from a consensus of the individual tree model forms| nor can its parameters be estimated reliably from the mean of the individual tree parameters. Because two-thirds of the individual tree time series contained significant autocorrelation| the normal assumption of a random structure over time is unwarranted| even after accounting for the time trend. The residuals of an appropriate ARMA model satisfy the independence assumption| and can be used to make hypothesis tests. 5386,2001,2,4,Timing of squid migration reflects North Atlantic climate variability,The environmental and biotic conditions affecting fisheries for cephalopods are only partially understood. A problem central to this is how climate change may influence population movements by altering the availability of thermal resources. In this study we investigate the links between climate and sea-temperature changes and squid arrival time off southwestern England over a 20-year period. We show that veined squid (Loligo forbesi) migrate eastwards in the English Channel earlier when water in the preceding months is warmer| and that higher temperatures and early arrival correspond with warm (positive) phases of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). The timing of squid peak abundance advanced by 120150 days in the warmest years ('early' years) compared with the coldest ('late' years). Furthermore| sea-bottom temperature was closely linked to the extent of squid movement. Temperature increases over the five months prior to and during the month of peak squid abundance did not differ between early and late years| indicating squid responded to temperature changes independently of time of year. We conclude that the temporal variation in peak abundance of squid seen off Plymouth represents temperature-dependent movement| which is in turn mediated by climatic changes associated with the NAO. Such climate-mediated movement may be a widespread characteristic of cephalopod populations worldwide| and may have implications for future fisheries management because global warming may alter both the timing and location of peak population abundance. 5447,2001,2,4,Tolerance to high temperatures and potential impact of sea warming on reef fishes of Gorgona Island (tropical eastern Pacific),Knowledge of upper thermal-tolerance limits of marine organisms in the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP) is important because of the influence of phenomena such as El Nino and global warming| which increase sea temperature. Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the critical thermal maximum (CTM) of reef fishes from the TEP. In 15 reef fishes of Gorgona Island (TEP) the CTM was between 34.7 degreesC and 40.8 degreesC. None of these CTMs was exceeded by sea temperature in the TEP during any of the strongest El Nino events in this century (32 degreesC during El Nino 1982-1983 and 1997-1998). which indicates that all species studied here may tolerate El Nino maximum temperatures. In addition| the CTM of the least-tolerant species was 8 degreesC above the current mean sea temperature in a wide range of latitudes in the TER This suggests that fishes live far from their upper thermal tolerance limits and that the current global-warming trend is still unlikely to be dangerous for these species. If sea temperature continues to increase at the current rate| in about a century sea temperature could exceed the thermal tolerance of some reef fishes and threaten them with extinction. Such risk. however| might occur sooner if the sea temperature during El Nino also increased in step with the global warming| but also because other processes involved in maintaining population| such as reproduction| can be affected at lower temperatures. The possible ability| of reef fishes to adapt to increases in sea temperature is discussed. 2954,2001,3,3,Towards a private-public synergy in financing climate change mitigation projects,Funding for greenhouse gas mitigation projects in developing countries is crucial for addressing the global climate change problem. By examining current climate change-related financial mechanisms and their limitations| this paper indicates that their roles are limited in affecting developing countries' future emissions| and argues for the necessity of stronger private sector engagement in financing mitigation projects. In this regard| the clean development mechanism (CDM)| one of the flexibility mechanisms incorporated into the Kyoto Protocol| could offer great potential in helping mobilize foreign direct investment towards climate mitigation| by providing commercial incentives for the private sector to invest in mitigation projects and internalizing externalities associated with mitigation projects. However| due to additional risks and barriers involved in CDM projects| we believe that appropriate public-private linkage would be necessary in order to bring the CDM into full play. To this end| we suggest that public funds could be used to complement private investment via the CDM| thus enhancing market functions of such an investment. Moreover| in so doing| we think that it would be necessary to examine a host of factors| such as risk sharing| private sector investment behaviour| types of technologies to be transferred| and co-ordination with the commonly practiced trade and investment rules. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5534,2001,3,4,Trading carbon tradable offsets under Kyoto's clean development mechanism: the economic advantages to buyers and sellers of using call options,Under the Kyoto Protocol's clean development mechanism| developed countries may purchase or trade for emission reduction units or greenhouse gas (GHG) offsets originating either from excess quota allocations or from developing countries' projects. Selling emission reduction units before a market has actually developed presents pricing problems for both sellers and buyers. In the case of sequestered carbon and in the example of a Costa Rican project| it may be economically beneficial to both buyer and seller alike for the buyer to purchase the right| but not the obligation| to purchase a carbon tradable offset (CTO). It is shown by valuing purchases and sales of CTO options that advantages from such an instrument are possible to both seller and buyer at least until a true market in GHG offset trading develops. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2989,2001,4,3,Transient behaviour of tropospheric ozone precursors in a global 3-D CTM and their indirect greenhouse effects,The global three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry-transport model STOCHEM has been used to follow the changes in the tropospheric distributions of the two major radiatively-active trace gases| methane and tropospheric ozone| following the emission of pulses of the short-lived tropospheric ozone precursor species| methane| carbon monoxide| NO(x) and hydrogen. The radiative impacts of NO(x) emissions were dependent on the location chosen for the emission pulse| whether at the surface or in the upper troposphere or whether in the northern or southern hemispheres. Global warming potentials were derived for each of the short-lived tropospheric ozone precursor species by integrating the methane and tropospheric ozone responses over a 100 year time horizon. Indirect radiative forcing due to methane and tropospheric ozone changes appear to be significant for all of the tropospheric ozone precursor species studied. Whereas the radiative forcing from methane changes is likely to be dominated by methane emissions| that from tropospheric ozone changes is controlled by all the tropospheric ozone precursor gases| particularly NO(x) emissions. The indirect radiative forcing impacts of tropospheric ozone changes may be large enough such that ozone precursors should be considered in the basket of trace gases through which policy-makers aim to combat global climate change. 5655,2001,4,3,Trend in atmospheric angular momentum in a transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing,The authors investigate the change of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) in long| transient| coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration and sulfate aerosol loading. A significant increase of global AAM| on the order of 4 x 10(25) kg m(2) s(-1) for 3 x CO2-1 x CO2| was simulated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled model. The increase was mainly contributed by the relative component of total AAM in the form of an acceleration of zonal mean zonal wind in the tropical-subtropical upper troposphere. Thus| under strong global warming| a super-rotational state emerged in the tropical upper troposphere. The trend in zonal mean zonal wind in the meridional plane was characterized by 1) a tropical-subtropical pattern with two maxima near 30 degrees in the upper troposphere| and 2) a tripole pattern in the Southern Hemisphere extending through the entire troposphere and having a positive maximum at 60 degreesS. The implication of the projected increase of global AAM for future changes of the length of day is discussed. The CCCma coupled global warming simulation| like many previous studies| shows a significant increase of tropical SST and includes a zonally asymmetric component that resembles El Nino SST anomalies. In the CCCma transient simulations| even though the tropical SST and global AAM both increased nonlinearly with time| the ratio of their time increments Delta AAM/Delta SST remained approximately constant at about 0.9 x 10(25) kg m(2) s(-1) (degreesC)(-1). This number is close to its counterpart for the observed global AAM response to El Nino. It is suggested that this ratio may be useful as an index for intercomparisons of different coupled model simulations. 5659,2001,2,3,Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity,One of the hypothesized effects of global warming from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is a change in the frequency and/or intensity of extratropical cyclones. In this study| winter frequencies and intensities of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1959-97 are examined to determine if identifiable trends are occurring. Results indicate a statistically significant decrease in midlatitude cyclone frequency and a significant increase in high-latitude cyclone frequency. In addition| storm intensity has increased in both the high and midlatitudes. The changes in storm frequency correlate with changes in winter Northern Hemisphere temperature and support hypotheses that global warming may result in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere. 5537,2001,2,2,Trends in upper-tropospheric humidity,Water vapor is the most radiatively active greenhouse gas| and the process of water-vapor feedback may significantly; amplify global warming induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. Satellite radiance observations from the past 20 years| which are sensitive to the mater vapor and temperature of the upper troposphere| provide the first global observations of trends in upper-tropospheric humidity. These decadal trends are strongly positive in the deep tropics| negative in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and midlatitudes| and of mixed sign in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and midlatitudes. The trends are shown to be consistent with atmospheric circulation changes observed in the past 20 years| including a tendency toward more EI Nino-Southern Oscillation warm events and changes in transient eddy activity in the subtropics. 5387,2001,4,3,Trends of measured climate forcing agents,The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/m(2) per century. This growth rate has since declined to approximate to3 W/m(2) per century| largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario (approximate to2 W/m(2) per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits| but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO2 emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless| practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate +0.15 +/- 0.05 degreesC per decade will occur over the next several decades. 2979,2001,5,4,U-Th dating of carbonate platform and slope sediments,Absolute chronology of marine sediment beyond the C-14 age range provides a test for models of climate change and has many other applications. U-Th techniques have been used for such chronology by dating corals| but extending these techniques to marine sediment is complicated by the presence of significant initial Th-230-both in detrital material and scavenged from seawater. In this study| we investigate four methods of solving the initial Th-230 problem for a particular type of marine sediment-the aragonite-rich sediments of carbonate platforms and slopes. Bulk sediment U-Th analyses can be corrected for initial Th to yield ages with approximate to2 to 3 kyr precision for highstand periods when sediment aragonite contents are particularly high. Uncertainty on the corrections causes inadequate precision for sediment from other periods| however. Removal of scavenged Th before analysis would enable a dramatic increase in this precision but has not proved successful despite a range of chemical leach approaches. Using heavy liquids to separate the various carbonate minerals found in Bahamas sediment enables an isochron approach to correct for initial Th| but the presence of initial Th from two sources requires correction or removal of one source of initial Th before the other is deconvolved by the isochron. Quantitative removal of detrital material before isochron analysis proves a successful approach. Such isochron data demonstrate that| although sediment remains closed to U-Th on a centimetre scale| nuclides are moved from grain to grain by alpha -recoil. Such intergrain exchange is expected to be observed in all sediments containing mineral grains with different U concentrations. Measured U-234/U-238 allows the recoil movement to be corrected and results in isochron ages with precision sometimes as low as 3 kyr. The accuracy of this approach has been proved by dating samples within the 14C age range. Sediments spanning the penultimate deglaciation have also been dated. After a small correction for bioturbation| the age for this event is found to be 135.2 +/- 3.5 ka. TWs date is approximate to8 kyr before the peak in northern hemisphere insolation and suggests that deglaciation is initiated by a mechanism in the southern hemisphere or tropics. This isochron approach shows considerable promise for dating of sediments older than this event| which will provide further information about the timing and mechanisms of global climate change. Copyright (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. 2963,2001,3,3,Uncertainty in estimating and mitigating industrial related GHG emissions,Global climate change has been one of the challenging environmental concerns facing policy makers in the past decade. The characterization of the wide range of greenhouse gas emissions sources and sinks as well as their behavior in the atmosphere remains an on-going activity in many countries. Lebanon| being a signatory to the Framework Convention on Climate Change| is required to submit and regularly update a national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions sources and removals. Accordingly| an inventory of greenhouse gases from various sectors was conducted following the guidelines set by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The inventory indicated that the industrial sector contributes about 29 percent to the total greenhouse gas emissions divided between industrial processes and energy requirements at 12 and 17 percent| respectively. This paper describes major mitigation scenarios to reduce emissions from this sector based on associated technical| economic| environmental| and social characteristics. Economic ranking of these scenarios was conducted and uncertainty in emission factors used in the estimation process was emphasized. For this purpose| theoretical and experimental emission factors were used as alternatives to default factors recommended by the IPCC and the significance of resulting deviations in emission estimation is presented. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5405,2001,5,4,Uncorking the bottle: What triggered the Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum methane release?,The Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) was a time of rapid global warming in both marine and continental realms that has been attributed to a massive methane (CH4) release from marine gas hydrate reservoirs. Previously proposed mechanisms for this methane release rely on a change in deepwater source region(s) to increase water temperatures rapidly enough to trigger the massive thermal dissociation of gas hydrate reservoirs beneath the seafloor. To establish constraints on thermal dissociation| we model heat flow through the sediment column and show the effect of the temperature change on the gas hydrate stability zone through time. In addition| we provide seismic evidence tied to borehole data for methane release along portions of the U.S. continental slope; the release sites are proximal to a buried Mesozoic reef front. Our model results| release site locations| published isotopic records| and ocean circulation models neither confirm nor refute thermal dissociation as the trigger for the PETM methane release. In the absence of definitive evidence to confirm thermal dissociation| we investigate an alternative hypothesis in which continental slope failure resulted in a catastrophic methane release. Seismic and isotopic evidence indicates that Antarctic source deepwater circulation and seafloor erosion caused slope retreat along the western margins of the North Atlantic in the late Paleocene. Continued erosion or seismic activity along the oversteepened continental margin may have allowed methane to escape from gas reservoirs trapped between the frozen hydrate-bearing sediments and the underlying buried Mesozoic reef front| precipitating the Paleocene/Eocene boundary methane release. An important implication of this scenario is that the methane release caused (rather than resulted from) the transient temperature increase of the PETM. Neither thermal dissociation nor mechanical disruption of sediments can be identified unequivocally as the triggering mechanism for methane release with existing data. Further documentation with high-resolution benthic foraminiferal isotopic records and with seismic profiles tied to borehole data is needed to clarify whether erosion| thermal dissociation| or a combination of these two was the triggering mechanism for the PETM methane 5438,2001,4,2,Understanding and managing the risks to health and environment from global atmospheric change: A synthesis,The global atmosphere is changing. Anthropogenic activities are increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases and releasing synthetic compounds that deplete stratospheric ozone and increase UV-B radiation. Changes of temperature in the Northern Hemisphere during the past century strongly suggest that we are now in a period of rapid global warming relative to the past millennium. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are absorbing outgoing infrared radiation in the lower atmosphere| warming the troposphere and cooling the lower stratosphere. Research is beginning to indicate that losses of stratospheric ozone and increases of greenhouse gases are interdependent. Increased greenhouse gases have been implicated in the observed strengthening of stratospheric wind vortices around both poles| in turn setting the stage for further depletion of ozone and increases in UV-B radiation. Although the uncertainties are still large enough to make it difficult to assess health and ecological risks| decisions must be made. Research on indicators of risks to human health and the environment can help reduce the uncertainties in these risks and shorten the time between recognizing the risks of atmospheric change and taking concrete mitigative and adaptive actions. 5635,2001,3,4,United States experience with gasoline additives,History| benefits and problems associated with gasoline additives in the United States were reviewed. To reduce air toxics and ozone in highly air-polluted areas of the country| oxygenates will continue to be added to gasoline until an alternative is sought and approved by the Congress of the United States. In near future| the use of methyl tert butyl ether (MTBE) will be reduced from its present magnitude and could be replaced by ethanol or other oxygenates that are less harmful to the environment. With rising oil prices| global warming and other environmental issues in the horizon| it is very likely that in the future| hydrogen will substitute gasoline to power electrically driven motors in automobiles. Nevertheless| hydrogen has to be extracted from a readily available source such as gasoline. If gasoline is going to be used as a source of hydrogen| it has to be reformulated from its present form and there will be no need for any additives. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5454,2001,4,3,Updated radiative forcing estimates of 65 halocarbons and nonmethane hydrocarbons,The direct radiative forcing of 65 chlorofluorocarbons| hydrochlorofluorocarbons| hydrofluorocarbons| hydrofluoroethers| halons| iodoalkanes| chloroalkanes| bromoalkanes| perfluorocarbons and nonmethane hydrocarbons has been evaluated using a consistent set of infrared absorption cross sections. For the radiative transfer models| both line-by-line and random band model approaches were employed for each gas. The line-by-line model was first validated against measurements taken by the Airborne Research Interferometer Evaluation System (ARIES) of the U.K. Meteorological Office; the computed spectrally integrated radiance of agreed to within 2% with experimental measurements. Three model atmospheres| derived from a three-dimensional climatology| were used in the radiative forcing calculations to more accurately represent hemispheric differences in water vapor| ozone concentrations| and cloud cover. Instantaneous| clear-sky radiative forcing values calculated by the line-by-line and band models were in close agreement. The band model values were subsequently modified to ensure exact agreement with the line-by-line model values. Calibrated band model radiative forcing values| for atmospheric profiles with clouds and using stratospheric adjustment| are reported and compared with previous literature values. Fourteen of the 65. molecules have forcings that differ by more than 15% from those in the World Meteorological Organization [1999] compilation. Eleven of the molecules have not been reported previously.. The 65-molecule data set reported here is the most comprehensive and consistent database yet available to evaluate the relative impact of halocarbons and hydrocarbons on climate change. 5581,2001,5,4,US Gulf Coast vegetation dynamics during the latest Palaeocene,Pollen and spore floras from the Bear Creek section in western Alabama (US Gulf Coast) record vegetation events from the lower to middle Tuscahoma Formation (late Palaeocene mid NP9). Sporomorphs are abundant and well preserved in these sediments and are used as a proxy to record vegetation change over time. We present results from both palynofloral and clay mineral analyses in the interval approximately 0.4-0.1 my before the Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM); a period of transient and intense global warming that had a profound effect on animal and plant groups in high latitudes. An important factor that has a significant bearing on our understanding of turnover across the PETM is that of climate/environmental stability prior to the PETM in terrestrial ecosystems. Palynological analysis with a between sample resolution of <10 ky suggests that the vegetation type characterising the US Gulf Coastal plains was highly stable with no significant changes in composition and diversity that can be successfully correlated with orbital oscillations. Our results indicate considerable stability of the vegetation type on time-scales of 10(4)-10(5) yr. Clay mineral suites show the dominance of smectite and illite throughout the studied section with minor fluctuations in the abundance of kaolinite (ranging from 2 to 10%) that indicates a high seasonality of precipitation throughout our studied section. The exact stratigraphic position of the PETM is unknown on the US Gulf Coast but data from existing publications suggests there is little change in the vegetation type across the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary with no major immigration or turnover events. Dinocysts art: restricted in both diversity and occurrence but Apectodinium homomorphum is present withCulicoides imicola| a vector of bluetongue virus and African horse sickness virus| is principally Afro-Asian in distribution| but has recently been found in parts of Europe. A logistic regression model based on climate data (temperature| saturation deficit| rainfall and altitude) and the published distribution of C. imicola in Iberia was developed and then applied to other countries in Europe| to identify locations where C. imicola could become established. The model identified three temperature variables as significant determinants of the distribution of C. imicola in Iberia (minimum of the monthly minimum temperatures| maximum of the monthly maximum temperatures and number of months per year with a mean temperature greater than or equal to 12.5 degreesC). The model indicated that under current conditions| the distribution of C. imicola in Spain| Greece and Italy could be extended and the vector could potentially invade parts of Albania| Yugoslavia| Bosnia and Croatia. To simulate the effect of global warming| temperature values in the model were increased by 2 degreesC. Under these conditions| the potential spread of C. imicola in Europe would be even more extensive.
5601,2001,4,4,Validation of ECMWF (re)analysis surface climate data| 1979-1998| for Greenland and implications for mass balance modelling of the Ice Sheet,Climate (re)analysis products are potentially valuable tools| when properly verified| for helping to constrain the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). Monthly surface fields from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational- and re-analyses spanning 1979-1998 were validated using in situ data (surface air pressure and temperature| precipitation| cloud cover| short-/all-wave radiation| and wind speed/direction). These validation data are from coastal or near-coastal Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) synoptic stations| inland Greenland Climate Network (CC-Net) and University of Wisconsin Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs)| and two energy balance stations near the southern ice margin. The ECMWF analyses closely reproduce the seasonal patterns and interannual variations of much of the in situ data. Differences in the mean values of surface air pressure and temperature can mainly be ascribed to orography errors in the analyses' schemes| compared with the latest available accurate digital elevation model. Much of the GIS margin as modelled by ECMWF was too cold| on average by 4 degreesC| and ECMWF precipitation averaged some 136% of the DMI station values. The misrepresentation of the (relatively) steep ice-sheet margin| which tends to be broadened and systematically over-elevated by several hundred metres| orographically reduced temperature and enhanced precipitation there in the ECMWF models. The cloud-cover comparison revealed not dissimilar annual mean cloud covers (ECMWF -8%) but the ECMWF analyses had too little cloud and were too 'sunny' during the critical summer melt season. ECMWF-modelled surface albedo in summer was similar to 11% lower than CC-Net values| which was mainly responsible for the disagreement of modelled surface short-wave radiation fluxes with observations. Model albedo and cloud errors need to be rectified if the analyses are to be used effectively to drive energy balance models of Greenland snowmelt. ECMWF wind speed averaged 66% (62%) of the DMI station (AWS) values. The validation results provide useful insights into how one can best improve the ECMWF Greenland climate data for use in glaciological and climatological studies. Copyright (C) 2001 Royal Meteorological Society. 3004,2001,5,4,Variations in chemical compositions of the eolian dust in Chinese Loess Plateau over the past 2.5 Ma and chemical weathering in the Asian inland,Major and trace elements as well as strontium isotopic composition have been analyzed on the acid-insoluble (Al) phase of the loess-paleosol sequence from Luochuan| Shaanxi Province| China. Results show that the chemical composition of Al phase of loess and paleosols is distinctive to the average composition of upper continental crust (UCC)| characterized by depletion of mobile elements Na| Ca and Sr. The distribution pattern of elements in Al phase reveals that initial dust| derived from a vast area of Asian inland| has suffered from Na- and Ca-removed chemical weathering compared to UCC. Some geochemical parameters (such as CIA values| Na/K| Rb/Sr and Sr-87/Sr-88 ratios) display a regular variation and evolution| reflecting that the chemical weathering in the source region of loess deposits has decreased gradually since 2.5 Ma with the general increase of global ice volume. This coincidence reflects that the aridity of Asian inland since the Quaternary is a possible regional response to the global climate change. 5523,2001,2,4,Vegetation succession and carbon sequestration in a coastal wetland in northwest Florida: Evidence from carbon isotopes,Measurements of stable carbon isotopic ratios as well as carbon (C)| nitrogen (N)| and phosphorus (P) contents in soils and plants were made along a chronovegetation sequence stretching from high marsh to low marsh in a coastal wetland in northwest Florida. The wetland is dominated by Juncus roemerianus| which is a C3 plant and has an average delta C-13 of -27 parts per thousand. Lesser amounts of other species| including C4 plants| are also present in the area. The delta C-13 values of soil organic matter from low and middle marshes range from -24 to -27 parts per thousand| which are consistent with the current plant community. However| the delta C-13 values of soil organic matter from high marsh show significant variations| from -23 parts per thousand in the surface soil to -17 parts per thousand at depth. This large C isotopic variation within soil profiles indicates a shift in local vegetation| from a C4-dominated community to the current C3 plant-dominated marsh| as a result of landward expansion of the wetland due to sea level rise. Radiocarbon dates on soil organic matter indicate that this ecological change occurred in the past hundred years or so as a result of sea level rise presumably due to global warming. Soil organic carbon inventory was similar to 29 +/- 3.6 kg m(-2) in low marsh (the oldest part of the wetland)| 15 +/- 3.6 kg m(-2) in middle marsh| and 13 +/- 6.0 kg m(-2) in high marsh (the youngest and most inland part of the wetland). N and P inventories are also higher in low marsh than in high marsh and seem to correlate directly with aboveground productivity in the marshes. The much higher C storage in low marsh than in high marsh indicates that carbon sequestration increased significantly as coastal wetland evolves from high marsh (initial stage) to low marsh (steady state). This has important implications to the global C cycle. As sea level rises owing to global warming| coastal wetlands are expected to expand landward in many areas where topography is gentle| which would provide a significant sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. 5530,2001,3,4,Verification: The gorilla in the struggle to slow global warming,Last November's "make or break" summit to settle the fine print for the Kyoto Protocol ran aground on the shoals of a strange and misdirected dispute between the U.S. and the European Union. The U.S. and several other countries sough liberal rules for the international trading of emission permits as well as generous credits for "sinks" such as forests and agricultural soils that absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Those provisions would make it easier to comply with the Kyoto Protocol's emission targets. European governments sough to plug these "loopholes" that would let countries evade serious action through clever accounting tricks and by purchasing credits overseas. Despite around-the-clock back room dealing| the diplomats never settled all their differences and the summit ended in bitter recriminations across the Atlantic and within Europe. Efforts to clean up the diplomatic mess failed| and now the Kyoto Protocol is in even more serious trouble as the U.S. has announced it will not ratify the pact. A growing chorus is now thinking about life "beyond Kyoto" - to a successor agreement (Victor 2001). The same debates about forest and soil carbon sinks will arise. How should they be settled? What can the forestry community do to help?
5436,2001,5,3,Warm tropical sea surface temperatures in the Late Cretaceous and Eocene epochs,Climate models with increased levels of carbon dioxide predict that global warming causes heating in the tropics| but investigations of ancient climates based on palaeodata have generally indicated cool tropical temperatures during supposed greenhouse episodes. For example| in the Late Cretaceous and Eocene epochs there is abundant geological evidence for warm| mostly ice-free poles| but tropical sea surface temperatures are generally estimated to be only 15-23 degreesC| based on oxygen isotope palaeothermometry of surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifer shells. Here we question the validity of most such data on the grounds of poor preservation and diagenetic alteration. We present new data from exceptionally well preserved foraminifer shells extracted from impermeable clay-rich sediments| which indicate that for the intervals studied| tropical sea surface temperatures were at least 28-32 degreesC. These warm temperatures are more in line with our understanding of the geographical distributions of temperature-sensitive fossil organisms and the results of climate models with increased CO2 levels. 5590,2001,2,4,Warmer springs disrupt the synchrony of oak and winter moth phenology,Spring temperatures have increased over the past 25 years| to which a wide variety of organisms have responded. The outstanding question is whether these responses match the temperature-induced shift of the selection pressures acting on these organisms. Organisms have evolved response mechanisms that are only adaptive given the existing| relationship between the cues organisms use and the selection pressures acting on them. Global warming may disrupt ecosystem interactions because it alters these relationships and micro-evolution may be slow in tracking these changes. In particular| such shifts have serious consequences for ecosystem functioning for the tight multitrophic interactions involved in the timing of reproduction and growth. We determined the response of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) egg hatching and oak (Quercus robur) bud burst to temperature| a system with strong selection on synchronization. We show that there has been poor synchrony in recent warm springs| which is due to an increase in spring temperatures without a decrease in the incidence of freezing spells in winter. This is a clear warning that such changes in temperature patterns may affect ecosystem interactions more strongly than changes in mean temperature. 5464,2001,2,4,Warming and structural changes in the East(Japan) Sea: A clue to future changes in global oceans?,The East (Japan) Sea has been in a warming trend during the last more than 40 years: a 0.1 - 0.5 degree of warming in the upper 1000 meters. The warming is accompanied by the deepening of the oxygen minimum layer by more than 1000 meters. The analysis of chemical tracers such as dissolved oxygen and CFCs clearly implies that the warming is associated with changes in deep water structures in the area| resulted from a replacement of the past bottom-water formation with an intermediate water formation in recent time. This shift has a remarkable resemblance to that anticipated to the ocean conveyor-belt system in coming century associated with recent global warming. In considering a rapid turn-over time of time scale less than 100 years| the East Sea may serve as a natural laboratory for global changes in the future. 5637,2001,2,4,Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations,Climate change simulations made with coupled global climate models typically show a marked hemispheric asymmetry with more warming in the northern high latitudes than in the south. This asymmetry is ascribed to heat uptake by the ocean at high southern latitudes. A recent version of the CCCma climate model exhibits a much more symmetric warming| compared to an earlier version| and agrees somewhat better with observed 20th century trends| This is associated with an improved parameterization of ocean mixing which results in a decrease in heat penetration into the Southern Ocean| in accord with earlier ocean-only and simple coupled model investigations. The global average warming and the net penetration of heat into the global ocean (and hence its thermal expansion) are essentially unchanged. Observed trends in sea-ice extent over the past two decades exhibit hemispheric asymmetry with a statistically significant decrease in northern but not in southern ice cover. Both model versions are consistent with these observations implying that observed ice extent is not yet an indicator of asymmetry in future global warming. Taken together| these results suggest that southern hemisphere climate warming at a rate comparable to that in the northern hemisphere should be considered a realistic possibility. 5505,2001,2,4,Water temperature and phytophenology indicate the earlier onset of oviposition in Eurasian Dipper (Cinclus cinclus) from the Swiss Lowlands,Initiation of reproduction was investigated in Eurasian Dipper (Cinclus cinclus) along riparian habitat of tributaries flowing into lower Lake Zurich (Switzerland). Total length of these drainages is 40 km and Dippers nested from 410 - 680 in asl. From 1992 to 2000 about 46 pairs per year had 552 successful broods with nestlings of at least 8 to 12 days of age. Meterological data (i. e.| air temperature| days with rain| amount of rainfall| amount of sunshine) and water temperature in a study area river were obtained from government weather stations. Phytophenological data| i.e. full flowering of Coltsfoot (Tussilago farfara)| Wood Anemone (Anemone nemorosa)| and Dandelion (Taraxacum officinale)| were also available from stations within the study area. Dippers initiated breeding in February or March of each year. with considerable variability among years. Earliest oviposition was 9 February 1995| and again 1997| while latest was 9 March 1992. The median date each year for appearance of the first 25 % of all broods was significantly correlated with February water temperatures (Spearman rank correlation. p < 0.001)| with February air temperatures (p < 0.002)| and with the flowering of two early phanerogams (Coltsfoot and Wood Anemone; p < 0.025)| but not Dandelion (p < 0.1). According to historical data| the initiation of reproduction for Dipper at Lake Zurich occurs now earlier in the year than it did in Britain| Germany| and Switzerland. This may be due either to global warming| or (more significantly) to an increase in water temperatures as a result of urbanisation. Warmer waters accelerate life cycles of aquatic arthropods and generate earlier emergences of insects that form the prey base of the Dipper. Since avian reproduction is cued by trophic resources| an earlier appearance of aquatic insects will concomitantly induce an earlier breeding season for the Dipper.
5651,2001,4,4,Why is the climate forcing of sulfate aerosols so uncertain?,Sulfate aerosol particles have strong scattering effect on the solar radiation transfer which results in increasing the planet albedo and| hence| tend to cool the earth-atmosphere system. Also| aerosols can act as the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) which tend to increase the albedo of clouds and cool the global warming. The ARPEGE-Climat version 3 AGCM with FMR radiation scheme is used to estimate the direct and indirect radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. For minimizing the uncertainties in assessing this kind of cooling effect| all kinds of factors are analyzed which have been mixed in the assessment process and may lead to the different results of the radiative forcing of aerosols| It is noticed that one of the uncertainties to assess the climate forcing of aerosols by GCM results from the different definition of radiative forcing that was used. In order to clarify this vague idea| the off-line case for considering no feedbacks and on-line case for including all the feedbacks have been used for assessment. The direct forcing of sulfate aerosols in off-line case is -0.57 W/m(2) and -0.38 W/m(2) for the clear sky and all sky respectively. The value of on-line case appears to be a little larger than that in off-line case chiefly due to the feedback of clouds. The indirect forcing of sulfate aerosols in off-line case is -1.4 W/m(2) and -1.0 W/m(2) in on-line case. The radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols has obvious regional characteristics| There is a larger negative radiative forcing over North America| Europe and East Asia. If the direct and indirect forcing are added together| it is enough to offset the positive radiative forcing induced by the greenhouse gases in these regions.
5685,2002,4,4,A comparison of variable solar total and ultraviolet irradiance outputs in the 20th century,[1] Differences in time-variation between total and ultraviolet solar irradiance could help in separating their influence on climate. We present the first models based on area measurements of magnetic plages from CaK spectroheliograms obtained between 1915-1999. Correlation of our time series of UV irradiance with global temperature| T| accounts for only 20% of the global temperature variance during the 20th century. Correlation of our total irradiance time series with T accounts statistically for 80% of the variance in global temperature over that period| although the irradiance variation amplitude is insufficient to influence global warming in present-day climate models. This interesting difference has been obscured in past modelling by additional components introduced to represent secular variations| which are no longer supported by current observational evidence. Future irradiance models emphasizing the more securely-based contributions of photospheric magnetic structures seem to provide better prospects for improved physical understanding of sun-climate links. 5905,2002,2,4,A computerized tank system for studying the effect of temperature on calcification of reef organisms,Mediated by algal symbionts| calcification in reef building corals is one of the important processes| which enable coral's growth. In the present study| we used a buoyant weighing technique to study calcification of two coralline species. Stylophora pistillata and the hydrocoral Millepora dichotoma. The colonies were grown in a tank system| in which light| nutrition and water motion were kept constant and temperature was elevated by means of a computerized controlled apparatus. An almost constant rate of calcification was observed in the two species at 22-28 degreesC. Elevation of the temperature above this range to 29-31 degreesC caused a slow down in calcification in both species. A grater number of S. pistillata colonies became bleached at temperatures of greater than or equal to 29 degreesC| whereas M. dichotoma colonies suffered from bleaching only after three days at 31 degreesC. For both species| control groups. remained viable during the experimental period. The differences in responses to changes in temperature of the two species may be as a consequence of different adaptive mechanisms or to different susceptibilities of the corals to elevated temperatures| We have shown that elevating temperatures above annual maximal ranges have a significant effect on coral calcification. We also demonstrated that sessile calcified marine organisms having ecological and biomedical significance could be cultured and manipulated under laboratory conditions. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5914,2002,2,4,A cytotaxonomic survey of Rodents from Niger: implications for systematics| biodiversity and biogeography,We here present an inventory of rodents from Niger| mainly based on cytotaxonomic data because of the presence of many groups providing sibling species. A total of 39 species are listed| one of which is a new chromosomal form (Taterillus sp.). Moreover| three other cytotypes already described but still not specifically attributed were found (Mastomys sp.| Acomys sp. and Tatera sp). New karyotypic data are presented for Gerbillus nancillus| Graphiurus cf. parvus| Massouteria mzabi| and Xerus erythropus. Once again| the efficiency of cytotaxonomy for small mammals inventories is enhanced. Specific distribution maps of poorly known species are thus completed. No clear gradients could be observed between what is currently defined as the West and the East African faunas. The distributions are mainly structured in a latitudinal manner. The Air massif appears as a continuous prolongation of the Sahelian area| rather than as a Sahelian refuge in the Sahara. Five biogeographical groups of species were distinguished: 1) a Sudanian group in the area receiving less than 700 turn rainfall| 2) a group of very widespread species largely overlapping the Sudanian (more than 700 turn rainfall) and the Sahelian areas| and sometimes including some Saharan localities| 3) a typical Saharan group| 4) some species infeoded to the mountainous Saharan area| and 5) few strictly commensal species. A global southward extension of several taxa confirms the desertification of the Sahel| as a result of both natural global warming and human activities. 2942,2002,4,4,A discussion of recent evidence for solar irradiance variability and climate,One of the over-arching questions| among others| to be addressed by studying Sun-Earth connections is: "Is the climate changing in a way we can understand and predict?" The Earth's climate is the result of a complex and incompletely understood system of external inputs and interacting parts. Climate change can occur over a range of time scales| may be driven by natural variability| including solar variability| and/or anthropogenic causes and may be identified through the study of a variety of measurable parameters. Global climate change in response to human influences is one of the pressing threats facing science today. However| many of the external factors that govern our climate| including solar variability| cannot be adequately determined from existing operational observations. Since the Sun is the fundamental source of energy that sustains life on Earth| establishing its radiation environment| controls its temperature and atmospheric composition| the accurate knowledge of the solar radiation received by the Earth and understanding of its variability are critical for environmental science and climate studies. In this paper we point out the necessity of a new strategy| i.e.| to study global solar properties| such as solar irradiance| solar shape| shape oscillations| and radius| to better understand the origin of solar-induced climate changes. (C) 2002 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2863,2002,2,2,A first-order analysis of the climate change effect on flood frequencies in a subalpine watershed by means of a hydrological rainfall-runoff model,Scientific evidence indicates that a global climate change due to human activity is possible within a century. It is expected that doubling Of CO2 and increasing the amount of other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would result in more severe weather| among other consequences. The purpose of the paper is to examine how flood frequencies and magnitudes in a midsize subalpine watershed on the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains in Alberta| Canada| would change under 2 X CO2 conditions. Given the poor spatial resolution of present general circulation models (GCM) and their uncertain performance at the regional scale| a first-order analysis is carried on| in which only rainfall intensity changes are considered to have the most significant impact on future floods. Estimates of storm rainfall increases are based on the literature survey| GCM projections for the study area| and transposition of southern climatic conditions. Two scenarios of likely most severe changes were selected: first| a 25% increase in the mean and standard deviation of Gumbel distribution of rainfall depth for storm durations from 6 to 48 h; second| a 50% increase in the standard deviation only. The HEC-1 watershed model and the soil conservation service runoff curve method for abstractions were used in Monte Carlo simulation. Comparison of Monte Carlo derived flood frequency curves for the two scenarios with the present day curve shows that scenario I is more critical in terms of flood flow increases than scenario 2. Under scenario 1| the mean annual flood on the study watershed would increase by almost 80% and the 100-year flood would increase by 41%. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5932,2002,5,4,A late neoproterozoic eastern Laurentian superplume: Location| size| chemical composition| and environmental impact,A database consisting of 25 data-sets has been compiled that includes published chemical analyses of most known eastern North American occurrences of late Neoproterozoic (Vendian) flood basalt and dike swarms together with some new geochemical data. Four additional eastern North American basalt occurrences of probable early Paleozoic age were also examined. The Vendian occurrences comprise the Central Iapetus magmatic event of Eastern North America which extends from the Long Range dikes of Labrador and Newfoundland to the Catoctin flood basalts of Virginia and includes the Grenville dike swarm of Ontario and Quebec. The strike of the Vendian dike swarms converge near a major gravity and magnetic anomaly at Sutton Mountain| Quebec. The chemical composition of the Vendian basalts and diabase dikes plotted onto spider diagrams normalized to the composition of the silicate earth can be subdivided into a tight cluster of parallel lines displaying HFSE enrichment and a more diverse group that is less enriched. The tight grouping of the enriched cluster suggests a mutual genetic relationship consistent with mantle plume derivation based largely on chemical similarity to standard Ocean Island Basalt (OIB). However| detailed examination of this eastern Laurentian OIB related cluster (LOIB) reveals regional variations in chemical composition| particularly TiO2 and Zr| that can be contoured to delineate a narrow lens shape with peak concentrations centered close to the Sutton Mountain triple junction. The central portion of the LOIB is geochemically the same as superplume derived basalt. Radiometric evidence indicates that the LOIB superplume magmatic activity peaked at about 550 Ma. The less enriched group geochemically resembles some of Earth's larger continental flood basalts| such as the Columbia River basalt province| derived from a subcontinental lithospheric mantle source mixed with magma from a mantle plume source. Radiometric and paleomagnetic evidence indicates that this less enriched group is about 615 to 564 Ma and probably extruded out of rifts that preceded the break-up of Pannotia. This mid-Vendian magmatism is consistent with the early stages of deep mantle plume upwelling but may be genetically independent of the superplume magmatism that followed. The four early Paleozoic basalt suites examined are interpreted as post-LOIB| lapetan Ocean ridge basalt accreted onto eastern Laurentian or perhaps basalt extruded from transform faults that intersected the trailing edge of Laurentia. If LOIB magmatism was generated by a superplume head| there may be important environmental implications. The LOIB event may have been partially responsible for considerable mantle outgassing| particularly carbon dioxide and nutrients| global warming| and major increases in the growth rate and deposition of marine life that occurred during the early Cambrian. 5721,2002,2,4,A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China,Climatic change has great implications for hydrological cycle and water resources planning. In order to assess this impact. a macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model was proposed and developed to simulate and predict the hydrological processes. GIS techniques were used as a tool to analyze topography| river networks| land-use. human activities| vegetation and soil characteristics. The model parameters were linked to these basin characteristics by regression and optimization methods. A parameterization scheme was developed and the model parameters were estimated for each grid element. Based on the different GCM and RCM outputs| the sensitivities of hydrology and water resources for China to global warming were studied. The proposed models are capable of producing both the magnitude and timing of runoff and water resources conditions. The semi-dry regions| such as Liaohe| Haihe| Ruanhe and Huaihe River basins in north China| The runoffs of these basins are small or even zero during dry season (from Oct. to May) and are very sensitive to temperature increase and rainfall decrease. While in the basins of the humid south China like Yangtze River basin| the runoffs are perennial and the base flow normally occupies a large portion of the total runoff volume. These humid basins are less vulnerable to climate chance. Results of the study also indicated that runoff is more sensitive to variation in precipitation than to increase in temperature| Climate change challenges existing water resources management practices by additional uncertainty. Integrated water resources management will enhance the potential for adaptation to change. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. 2876,2002,3,3,A modelling analysis of the potential for soil carbon sequestration under short rotation coppice willow bioenergy plantations,Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and their association with global climate change have led to several major international initiatives to reduce net CO2 emissions| including the promotion of bioenergy crops such as short rotation coppice (SRC) willow. Although the above-ground harvested bio-fuel is likely to be the major contributor to the CO2 mitigation potential of bioenergy crops| additional carbon may be sequestered through crop inputs into plantation soils. Here| we describe a process-based model specifically designed to evaluate the potential for soil carbon sequestration in SRC willow plantations in the UK. According to the model predictions| we conclude that the potential for soil carbon sequestration in these plantations is comparable to| or even greater than| that of naturally regenerating woodland. Our preliminary| site-specific model output suggests that soil carbon sequestration may constitute about 5% of the overall carbon mitigation benefit arising from SRC plantations. Sensitivity analyses identified the following factors as the principal controls on rates and amounts of soil carbon sequestration under SRC: carbon inputs (net primary production)| decomposition rates of the major soil carbon pools| initial soil carbon content (an inverse relationship with rates of soil carbon sequestration)| crop/plantation management| and depth of soil being influenced by the bioenergy crop. Our results suggest that carbon sequestration potential is greatest in soils whose carbon content has been depleted to relatively low levels due to agricultural land use practices such as annual deep ploughing of agricultural soils. 5950,2002,4,6,A multifractal point of view on climatological evolution,The global warming assumption has not yet been convincingly substantiated from hydrometerogical data analysis. In fact| as the atmosphere and the hydrosphere are highly non linear systems| one cannot expect a linear response to an increase of green house gas concentration because there exists various interactions and feedbacks at different scales between these systems and between their components. Before any prognosis about climate change it is rather indispensable to have a better knowledge of its natural variability. In any case| it will be extremely difficult or even fallacious to separate the anthropogenic and natural variability as it is likely that they strongly interact. To overcome such difficulties we argue that one has to keep as close as possible to the non linear physics of the involved phenomena. This is the objective of a multifractal analysis| which is both multiscale and multiintensity| of the available data. 2909,2002,3,4,A new decision sciences for complex systems,Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches| which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments| now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning| an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis. The article demonstrates the approach on the policy problem of global climate change| with a particular focus on the role of technology policies in a robust| adaptive strategy for greenhouse gas abatement. 5825,2002,2,4,A new joint probability appraisal of flood risk,Prior to the construction of the Cardiff Bay Barrage the risk of flooding of the Cardiff Bay waterfront was from inundation by surge tides. The barrage has substantially eliminated the probability of tidal flooding| and the residual flood risk now depends upon the ability of the inland bay to provide sufficient storage for river floodwater during periods of high tide. In the course of the feasibility and design studies the actual reduction in flood hazard was not quantified| but the design was carried out against specific combinations of tidal levels and fluvial flows. Recent research for MAFF at HR Wallingford has now made viable the assessment of the actual degree of flood risk| where flooding depends on the combination of two or more events. This paper presents a new joint probability appraisal of the standard of flood defence for the land around the inland bay| and demonstrates the conservatism incorporated in the original design methodology for flood risks. An examination of individual floods and surge tides and of the daily flow and tide records for a concurrent 18-year period has shown no positive correlation between concurrent high tides and river floods. An ISIS flow model of the Rivers Taff and Ely| the inland bay and the operation of the barrage structure was used to identify combinations of hydro-meteorological events that give specific levels in the inland bay. A statistical frequency assessment of these levels in the inland bay has provided 'return periods' for the still water level in the inland bay exceeding| for example| 7.5 m OD and 8.0 m OD. This frequency assessment was undertaken for sea levels with and without an allowance for future rise in mean sea level attributable to global warming. The ISIS modelling contained some conservative assumptions| notably the assumed coincidence between the peak of the river flow and high tide in the Bristol Channel| and the effect of these assumptions was investigated by some sensitivity tests. Finally| a best estimate of the return period for these levels in the inland bay was made using the sensitivity testing and the results of a study in 1994 of the effects of the operation of the barrage. It is concluded that the construction of the barrage is a significant flood defence benefit to Cardiff| which now has greater protection from flooding from the inland bay than the Thames Barrier provides for London. Flood risk from impoundment of the inland bay for the waterfront area remains very low even for the currently used scenarios for mean sea level rise due to global warming to the year 2100. 5770,2002,3,4,A novel reduction process of CO2 fixation by waste concrete treatment,A new process to fix anthropogenic carbon dioxide via treatment of waste concrete was proposed. The main reaction of the process is the extraction of calcium ions from waste concrete particles by use of pressurized carbon dioxide (several MPa in pressure). The extracted Ca2+ is deposited as calcium carbonate (CaCO3) particles when the pressure is reduced to the atmospheric pressure. The CaCO3 particles can either be disposed of directly or reused industrially for cement production. The former case is a direct disposal of CO; the latter case is an indirect disposal Of CO2| because the net mining amount of virgin limestone could be reduced. Energy consumption and cost for the fixation process Of CO2 emitted from a 100-MW thermal power plant by the proposed process was evaluated based on laboratory-scale experimental results. It was found that energy consumption for the operation was 3.5 MW per 100-MW power generation| and the fixation cost was about JPY 2100 per metricton of carbon. This result indicates that the present process is highly competitive with the previous CO2 fixation scenarios such as ocean sequestration. 5962,2002,2,4,A population study of the Blue-breasted Fairy-wren| Malurus pulcherrimus| at Dryandra| Western Australia,Over the years 1990-99| a colour-banded population of Blue-breasted Fairy-wrens| Malurus pulcherrimus| was studied at Dryandra State Forest in Eucalyptus wandoo woodland. Much of this work coincided with a study (by other workers) of the same species in patches of heathland scattered through wheatland at Wyalkatchem (1993-98). At Dryandra| groups of 2-4 adults lived all year round in territories averaging 2.5 ha; clutch size was two or three eggs (mean 2.8)| with more two-egg clutches laid in dry years| as at Wyalkatchem. The main difference between the two studies was in the timing of breeding. At Wyalkatchem the first clutches were laid in early August| whereas in Dryandra August is still cold| and no eggs were laid before mid-September. In wetter years laying ceased at Wyalkatchem towards the end of December but at Dryandra it continued into February. Individual nest success was low at both sites| but with a longer nesting season Dryandra groups renested more frequently and produced more fledglings (1.63 fledglings per group at Wyalkatchem| 1.93 at Dryandra). Annual survival of adults at Dryandra was c. 5% lower than for the Wyalkatchem birds| which suggests that the habitat for the species at the western edge of its distribution is sub-optimal. As at Wyalkatchem| productivity was at or above replacement level only in years of above-average rainfall. Since productivity at both sites was significantly reduced in drier years| the effect of forecast global warming causes concern for this species. Comparisons between M. pulcherrimus and the Red-winged Fairy-wren| M. elegans| illustrate how the group-living social organisation basic to all Malurus spp. can differ greatly between species as a result of differences in survival and productivity. 5860,2002,3,3,A proposed industrial-boiler efficiency program in Shanxi: potential CO2-mitigation| health benefits and associated costs,An industrial boiler-efficiency improvement program (IBEI) that focuses on simple. inexpensive measures to improve the operating efficiency of coal-fired industrial boilers in Shanxi| China. is presented. The potential mitigation of CO| emissions and its cost| based on this program. are calculated together with estimates of health benefits associated with the reduction of air pollution. The results show that. if the average efficiency of industrial boilers were improved from 60 to 70%. 3 million tons of coal could be saved. and CO2 emissions be reduced by 5 million tons annually at a cost of less than US$2 per ton of CO2. The health benefits are valued at about US$86 million per year. including the avoidance of about 700 premature deaths annually. The proposed IBEI program would. therefore provide an ideal case by which to address the issue of global warming in China and to achieve national goals concerning the growth of the economy. and environmental protection. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5886,2002,3,3,A review of environmental hazards and adsorption recovery of cleaning solvent hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs),Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are being used as interim replacements for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that cause significant stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming relating to the greenhouse effect: HCFCs under commercial uses such as cleaning solvents include HCFC-123 (2|2-dichloro-1|1|1-trifluoroethane)| HCFC-141b (1|1-dichloro-1-fluoroethane)| HCFC-225ca (3|3dichloro-1|1|1|2|2-pentafluoropropane)| and HCFC-225cb (1|3-dichloro-1|1|2|2|3-pentafluoropropane). From the environmental| ecological| and regulatory points of view| it is important to limit and control the emissions of these cleaning solvents from the surface finishing processes. Adsorption technology has been utilized for many years to recover organic vapors by using carbon-based or zeolite-based adsorbent. This article aims to introduce these HCFCs in terms of physiochemical properties| commercial uses| and environmental hazards (i.e.| stratospheric ozone depletion| global warming| and health & safety). Further| the main studies on the adsorption isotherm and desorption methods of these HCFCs by various adsorbents (i.e.| granular activated carbon| activated carbon fiber| and hydrophobic zeolite) are reviewed in this paper. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2948,2002,3,2,A structural decomposition analysis of air pollution from fossil fuel combustion in India,During the last decade| there has been worldwide concern with global climate change| which has been induced by greenhouse gases (GHGs) due to the use of fossil fuels. The CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion have been identified as the single most significant source of GHG emissions into the atmosphere. Realizing the need to control and regulate emissions of pollutants| the objective of the present study estimates the trend of CO2 SO2 and NOx between the periods 1991-92 and 1996-97. An input-output structural decomposition analysis approach is used to determine their sources of change. It also provides a set of alternative scenarios for the year 2001-2 and 2006-7. The sources of changes in the amount of CO2 SO2 and NOx emissions are categorized into four factors: the ecoefficiency| the structure of production| the structure of demand| and the volume of demand. Results indicate that the electricity sector contributes more towards direct| as well as indirect| emission coefficients. The petroleum product sector also contributes more in this respect. The dominant role is played by the structure of demand and the volume of demand. 5941,2002,2,4,A theoretical analysis on the local climate change induced by the change of landuse,The local climate change induced by the change of landuse| i.e.| the degeneration of vegetation is studied by the consideration of the equilibrium among radiation| phase change and convection in an air column and the energy balance condition on the ground surface. The result shows that the increase of ground albedo and the change of the surface heat flux as well as the decrease of the surface roughness length may induce the decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature in the northern China| similar to the numerical simulation. Considering advection| this conclusion is also true except the amounts of the decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature are changed. The decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature will be more serious in case of global warming. 2932,2002,5,4,Accumulation of organic and inorganic carbon in Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments along the SW African margin,The Ocean Drilling Program Leg 175 recovered a unique series of stratigraphically continuous sedimentary sections along the SW African margin| an area which is presently affected by active coastal upwelling. The accumulation rates of organic and inorganic carbon are a major component of this record. Four Leg 175 sites (1082| 1084| 1085| 1087) are chosen as part of a latitudinal transect from the present northern to southern boundaries of the Benguela Current upwelling system| to decipher the Pliocene-Pleistocene history of biogenic production and its relationship with global and local changes in oceanic circulation and climate. The pattern of CaCO(3) and C(org) mass accumulation rates (MARs) over 0.25-Myr intervals indicates that the evolution of carbon burial is highly variable between the northern and the southern Benguela regions| as well as between sites that have similar hydrological conditions. This| as well as the presence over most locations of high-amplitude| rapid changes of carbon burial| reflect the partitioning of biogenic production and patterns of sedimentation into local compartments over the Benguela margin. The combined mapping of CaCO(3) and C(org) MARs at the study locations suggests four distinct evolutionary periods| which are essentially linked with major steps in global climate change: the early Pliocene| the mid-Pliocene warm event| a late Pliocene intensification of northern hemisphere glaciation and the Pleistocene. The early Pliocene spatially heterogeneous patterns of carbon burial are thought to reflect the occurrence of mass-gravitational movements over the Benguela slope which resulted in disruption of the recorded biogenic production. This was followed (3.5-3 Ma) by an episode of peak carbonate accumulation over the whole margin and| subsequently| by the onset of Benguela provincialism into a northern and a southern sedimentary regime near 2 Ma. This mid and late Pliocene evolution is interpreted as a direct response to changes in the ventilation of bottom and intermediate waters| as well as to dynamics of the subtropical gyral circulation and associated wind stress. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2940,2002,2,4,Air pollutant combinations - Significance for future impact assessments on vegetation,Research on combinations of "classical" air pollutants such as SO2| NOx| acid deposition or O-3 has extensively been carried out in the eighties and early nineties of the last century. More recently| attention has been paid to the interactions between elevated CO2 concentrations and air pollutants since the importance of the direct effects of rising CO2 on vegetation on a global scale has been recognized and since there is evidence that elevated CO2 has the potential to mitigate negative effects of air pollutants. A short synopsis is provided of the state of the scientific knowledge on the effects of pollutant mixtures on vegetation focussing on combinations with O-3. Particular emphasis is laid on current uncertainties and gaps in assessing pollutant interactions involved in the modification of plant responses to predicted changes in climate and atmosphere. 5798,2002,3,4,Amelioration of global warming by controlled enhancement of the albedo and longevity of low-level maritime clouds,A technique is proposed for controlled enhancement of droplet concentrations in low-level maritime clouds| with corresponding increase in their albedo and longevity| thereby producing a cooling effect. It involves dissemination at the ocean surface of small seawater droplets which act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). It has low ecological impact. (C) 2002 Royal Meterorological Society 5784,2002,2,4,An analysis of daily maximum wind speed in northwestern Europe using generalized linear models,The basic climatological pattern and recent trends in daily maximum wind speed (DMWS) for the region 47.5degrees-65degreesN and 12.5degreesW-22.5degreesE are studied using gamma distributions within a generalized linear model. Between 1958 and 1998| DMWS has increased over the ocean in winter but weakened over continental Europe in summer. Large-scale circulation changes such as those of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) account for the strengthening wind over the ocean. Global warming may have impacted the regional wind climate. In particular| Southern Hemisphere temperature exhibits a significant effect on the distinct oceanic and continental trends in DMWS. It is suggested that the steady warming of the Southern Hemisphere during the last few decades may have forced the North Atlantic storm track to shift in such a way that storms are enhanced toward the northwestern oceanic area| but weakened throughout most of the European continent. 5811,2002,5,3,An atmospheric pCO(2) reconstruction across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary from leaf megafossils,The end-Cretaceous mass extinctions| 65 million years ago| profoundly influenced the course of biotic evolution. These extinctions coincided with a major extraterrestrial impact event and massive volcanism in India. Determining the relative importance of each event as a driver of environmental and biotic change across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) crucially depends on constraining the mass of CO2 injected into the atmospheric carbon reservoir. Using the inverse relationship between atmospheric CO2 and the stomatal index of land plant leaves| we reconstruct Late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO(2)) levels with special emphasis on providing a pCO(2) estimate directly above the KTB. Our record shows stable Late Cretaceous/ Early Tertiary background pCO(2) levels of 350-500 ppm by volume| but with a marked increase to at least 2|300 ppm by volume within 10|000 years of the KTB. Numerical simulations with a global biogeochemical carbon cycle model indicate that CO2 outgassing during the eruption of the Deccan Trap basalts fails to fully account for the inferred pCO(2) increase. Instead| we calculate that the postboundary pCO(2) rise is most consistent with the instantaneous transfer of approximate to4|600 Gt C from the lithic to the atmospheric reservoir by a large extraterrestrial bolide impact. A resultant climatic forcing of +12 W(.)m(-2) would have been sufficient to warm the Earth's surface by approximate to7.5degreesC| in the absence of counter forcing by sulfate aerosols. This finding reinforces previous evidence for major climatic warming after the KTB impact and implies that severe and abrupt global warming during the earliest Paleocene was an important factor in biotic extinction at the KTB. 5761,2002,4,4,An efficient climate model with a 3D ocean and statistical-dynamical atmosphere,We describe a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity designed for use in global warming experiments. The atmospheric component is a two-dimensional (zonally averaged) statistical-dynamical model based on the Goddard Institute for Space Study's atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). In contrast with energy-balance models used in some climate models of intermediate complexity| this model includes full representation of the hydrological and momentum cycles. It also has parameterizations of the main physical processes| including a sophisticated radiation code. The ocean component is a coarse resolution ocean GCM with simplified global geometry based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory modular ocean model. Because of the simplified geometry the resolution in the western boundary layers can be readily increased compared to conventional coarse resolution models| without increasing the model's computational requirements in a significant way. The ocean model's efficiency is also greatly increased by using a moderate degree of asynchronous coupling between the oceanic momentum and tracer fields. We demonstrate that this still allows an accurate simulation of transient behavior| including the seasonal cycle. A 100 years simulation with the model requires less than 8 hours on a state-of the art workstation. The main novelty of the model is therefore a combination of computational efficiency| statistical-dynamical atmosphere and 3D ocean. Long-term present-day climate simulations are carried out using the coupled model with and without flux adjustments| and with either the Gent-McWilliams (GM) parametrization scheme or horizontal diffusion (HD) in the ocean. Deep ocean temperatures systematically decrease in the runs without flux adjustment. We demonstrate that the mismatch between heat transports in the uncoupled states of two models is the main cause for the systematic drift. In addition| changes in the circulation and sea-ice formation also contribute to the drift. Flux adjustments in the freshwater fluxes are shown to have a stabilizing effect on the thermohaline circulation in the model| whereas the adjustments in the heat fluxes tend to weaken the global "conveyor". To evaluate the model's response to transient external forcing global warming simulations are also carried out with the flux-adjusted version of the coupled model. The coupled model reproduces reasonably well the behavior of more sophisticated coupled GCMs for both current climate and for the global warming scenarios. 2864,2002,4,4,An integrated model of soil| hydrology| and vegetation for carbon dynamics in wetland ecosystems,Wetland ecosystems are an important component in global carbon (C) cycles and may exert a large influence on global climate change. Predictions of C dynamics require us to consider interactions among many critical factors of soil| hydrology| and vegetation. However| few such integrated C models exist for wetland ecosystems. In this paper| we report a simulation model| Wetland-DNDC| for C dynamics and methane (CH4) emissions in wetland ecosystems. The general structure of Wetland-DNDC was adopted from PnET-N-DNDC| a process-oriented biogeochemical model that simulates C and N dynamics in upland forest ecosystems. Several new functions and algorithms were developed for Wetland-DNDC to capture the unique features of wetland ecosystems| such as water table dynamics| growth of mosses and herbaceous plants| and soil biogeochemical processes under anaerobic conditions. The model has been validated against various observations from three wetland sites in Northern America. The validation results are in agreement with the measurements of water table dynamics| soil temperature| CH4 fluxes| net ecosystem productivity (NEP)| and annual C budgets. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the most critical input factors for C dynamics in the wetland ecosystems are air temperature| water outflow parameters| initial soil C content| and plant photosynthesis capacity. NEP and CH4 emissions are sensitive to most of the tested input variables. By integrating the primary drivers of climate| hydrology| soil and vegetation| the Wetland-DNDC model is capable of predicting C biogeochemical cycles in wetland ecosystems. 5720,2002,3,4,Analytical study to minimise the heat losses from a propane powered 4-stroke spark ignition engine,The alarming rate at which the Earth's atmosphere is getting polluted| the increased impact of global warming on the weather conditions on Earth and the stringent anti-pollution laws imposed in certain countries are among the main reasons for the search for alternatives to gasoline. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) (mainly propane) is among the many alternatives proposed to replace gasoline in the short term due to its excellent characteristics as a fuel for spark ignition (Sl) engines. This paper presents a discussion on the parameters that affect the engine's heat losses mainly during power stroke| with suggestions to minimise it. The effect of the equivalence ratio| compression ratio| spark plug location| and combustion duration at different speeds on the heat losses has been studied. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All| rights reserved. 5732,2002,2,4,Annual CO2 balance of a subarctic fen in northern Europe: Importance of the wintertime efflux,The annual balance of CO2 was measured on a subarctic flark fen located in northern Finland (69degrees08'N| 27degrees17'E). Measurements were conducted using the micrometeorological eddy covariance method during the period from April 1998 to April 1999. Special emphasis was put on the importance of the wintertime CO2 balance as a component of the annual budget. The CO2 fluxes observed during the winter were relatively small (0.0055 mg CO2 m(-2) s(-1))| but due to the long duration of the snow cover period| they play an important role in the annual balance of CO2. The efflux during the coldest periods| when soil surface temperatures fell below -10degreesC| was enabled by markedly higher peat temperatures (close to 0degreesC) in deeper layers. The typical nighttime respiration observed in summer was -0.10 mg CO2 m(-2) s(-1). The net photosynthesis had a typical daytime peak value of about -0.20 mg CO2 m(-2) s(-1) in July. Corresponding with the instantaneous CO2 fluxes| the highest daily sink balances of about -9 g CO2 m(-2) d(-1) were observed in July| while the highest daily respiration balances of about 2.5 g CO2 m(-2) d(-1) were observed before and after the sink period. The CO2 balance for the winter period (105 g CO2 m(-2)) was greater than the absolute value of the total annual balance (-68 g CO2 m(-2))| which shows the importance of the wintertime efflux. After taking into account estimates for CH4 efflux and carbon leaching| an annual carbon balance of -7+/-5 g C m(-2) was obtained for the fen. 5877,2002,2,4,Anthropogenic and climate-change impacts on salt marshes of Jamaica Bay| New York City,Field studies and aerial photograph interpretation suggest that large sections of Jamaica Bay salt marshes in New York City near John F. Kennedy International Airport are deteriorating rapidly. The relatively recent salt marsh losses may be caused by a variety of factors| potentially interacting synergistically. Possible factors include reduced sediment input| dredging for navigation channels| boat traffic| and regional sea-level rise. Field work included aboveground biomass measurements of Spartina alterniflora| mapping plant community distribution| and documenting biogeomorphological indicators of marsh loss. Current productivity (standing crop biomass)| which ranged from approximately 700 to 1500 g m(-2)| was typical of healthy marshes in this region| in spite of other indicators of marsh degradation. Historical aerial photographs of several islands showed that sampled marshes have diminished in size by similar to 12% since 1959. Overall island low marsh vegetation losses since 1974 averaged 38%| with smaller islands losing up to 78% of their vegetation cover. Ground observations indicate that major mechanisms of marsh loss include increased ponding within marsh interiors| slumping along marsh edges| and widening of tidal inlets. Projections of future sea-level rise| using outputs from several global climate models and data from local tide gauges| in conjunction with a range of plausible accretion rates| suggest that under current stresses| Jamaica Bay salt marshes are unlikely to keep pace with accelerated rates of sea-level rise in the future. 2847,2002,2,4,Application of decision support system for sustainable management of water resources in the Azraq Basin - Jordan,Water scarcity in Jordan is a significant constraint to development| with limited available water and financial resources. As population and economic activity increase| it will be necessary to implement national strategies that seek to balance the present needs and those of future generations. Multiple variables associated with agricultural crops| industries| and the impact of climate change| were incorporated into a Decision Support System (DSS). The DSS utilized Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)| which resulted in the prioritization of sustainable water policies for management in the Azraq Basin. The inputs to the DSS were generated through application of Modflow (groundwater)| stochastic| and Penman Montieth models and through calculations of water productivity for agricultural and industrial sectors. The results of the DSS make recommendations as to how to enhance| long-term sustainability of water resources in Azraq| while allowing for water utilization and economic growth. It is recommended for future planning that further research of the impacts to water resources must be conducted at local and national levels and linked to regional and global climate change prediction. It can be concluded that the DSS tool and AHP are potentially positive contributions to the process of decision-making for selection and ranking of alternatives and policies and for help in solving problems that include conflicting criteria. 5953,2002,3,3,Application of environmental impact assessments to tribo-components - A case study on plain bearings for automotive engines,Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is conducted for four types of plain bearings used for automotive engines. Equivalent CO2 emission (ECE) is used as the index of the environmental impact for global warming| and is compared among different chemical compositions and different manufacturing processes. Three types of aluminum alloy bearings| all of which are in the market| show little difference in ECE| irrespective of different lining constituents or the addition of an interlayer. Copper-lead alloy bearings with overlay| on the other hand| show an ECE value approximately 2.7 times as high as that for the aluminum bearings| the increment originating from the overplating process. If higher fatigue resistance of the aluminum alloy bearings is taken into consideration and their size could be reduced maintaining the same level of performance| further advantage would be found for their use. 5857,2002,4,4,Application of PIXE technique to studies on global warming/cooling effect of atmospheric aerosols,During the last decade| the importance of global warming has been recognized worldwide| Atmospheric aerosols play an important role in the global warming/cooting effects| The physicochemical properties of aerosol particles are fundamental to understanding such effects. In this study| the PIXE technique was applied to measure the average chemical properties of aerosols. Micro-PIXE was also applied to investigate the mixing state of the individual aerosol particle. The chemical composition data were used to estimate the optical properties of aerosols. The average values of aerosol radiative forcing were -1.53 w/m(2) in Kyoto and +3.3 w/m(2) in Nagoya| indicating cooling and warming effects respectively. The difference of radiative forcing in the two cities may be caused by the large difference in chemical composition of aerosols. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5691,2002,4,4,Approaches of fusion science to global warming from the perspective of thermofluid research,Scientific interest in the environmental and meteorological fields has been focused on the estimation of the temperature rise on the earth in the near and far future. The temperature rise is estimated by a gas transfer flux. It is very difficult to measure and estimate the gas transfer rate resulting from the air-sea interaction because of very high Schmidt number (Sc) turbulent fluid flow with free surface deformation. On the other hand| the utilization of high Prandtl number (Pr) fluid flows| like a Flibe| with free surface as a coolant in an advanced magnetic fusion reactor and as a chamber protection scheme in an inertial confinement fusion reactor have been considered. From the perspective of thermofluid research| it would be very important to discuss on some common aspects between fusion nuclear technology and global warming problem. Since the thermal diffusivities of high Pr or Se fluids are very small| when the high temperature or concentration regions appear on the free surface caused by plasma radiation or carbon-dioxide gas absorption| respectively| the scalar transport from the free surface to the bulk flow must be very slow compared with the fluid motion. In this paper| some common aspects between the heat transfer of high Pr free surface flow in fusion engineering and the mass transfer of high Sc free surface flow in the global warming problem are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5693,2002,4,2,Are natural climate forcings able to counteract the projected anthropogenic global warming?,A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assess the climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless| in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal. 5848,2002,2,4,Artificial climate warming positively affects arbuscular mycorrhizae but decreases soil aggregate water stability in an annual grassland,Despite the importance of arbuscular mycorrhizae to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. nutrient uptake| soil aggregation)| and the increasing evidence of global warming| responses of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) to climate warming are poorly understood. In a field experiment using infrared heaters| we found effects of warming on AMF after one growing season in an annual grassland| in the absence of any effects on measured root parameters (weight| length| average diameter). AMF soil hyphal length was increased by over 40% in the warmed plots| accompanied by a strong trend for AMF root colonization increase. In the following year| root weight was again not significantly changed| and AMF root colonization increased significantly in the warmed plots. Concentration of the soil protein glomalin| a glycoprotein produced by AMF hyphae with importance in soil aggregation| was decreased in the warmed plots. Soil aggregate water stability| measured for five diameter size classes| was also decreased significantly. In the following year| soil aggregate weight in two size classes was decreased significantly| but the effect size was very small. These results indicate that ecosystem warming may have stimulated carbon allocation to AMF. Other factors either influenced glomalin decomposition or production| hence influencing the role of these symbionts in soil aggregation. The observed small changes in soil aggregation| if widespread among terrestrial ecosystems| could have important consequences for soil carbon storage and erosion in a warmed climate| especially if there are cumulative effects of warming. 5783,2002,3,4,Aspects of peat conservation and water management,An extended water regime model was used for calculating the evapotranspiration| groundwater recharge| and peat mineralization (CO2 and N release) for various fen locations with grassland utilization in dependence on the groundwater level. The results show that an increasing groundwater level leads to a strong decline of the actual evapotranspiration E-t. For example| increasing the groundwater level from 30 to 120 cm diminishes the E-t by up to 230 mm a(-1). A positive groundwater recharge only takes place at groundwater levels of 90 cm and more. At smaller distances the capillary rise into the rooting zone during the summer months is greater than the water seepage during the winter months| so that a negative groundwater recharge-balance is reached in the course of a year. The CO2- and the N-release| as well as the annual decline in peat thickness| increase significantly with rising groundwater levels. The results show that varying the groundwater level can influence the water regime and the peat mineralization significantly. The lower the groundwater level the less is the peat decomposition. The demand for a groundwater level as small as possible is| however; limited by an agricultural utilization of the fens. Choosing the optimum groundwater level should consider the aims (1) peat mineralization| (2) gas emission (CO2| CH4; N2O)| and (3) crop production. If a grassland utilization is supposed to be made possible and all three aims above are given equal importance| the groundwater level should be maintained at 30 cm. At this distance| about 90 % of the optimum plant output can be reached. The peat mineralization can be reduced to 30 to 40 % of the maximum peat mineralization. The gas emission amounts to -50-60 % of the maximum value. 2889,2002,2,4,Assessment of the risk of solar ultraviolet radiation to amphibians. III. Predictions of impacts in selected northern midwestern wetlands,Solar ultraviolet radiation| especially UVB (280-320 nm)| has been hypothesized to be at least partially responsible for adverse effects (e.g.| declines and malformations) in amphibian species throughout the world. Evaluation of this hypothesis has been limited by the paucity of high-quality UV dose-response data and reliable estimates of typical UV doses that occur in amphibian habitats. In this preliminary risk assessment for effects of UV radiation on amphibians| dose-response relationships quantified in outdoor experiments were compared with UV exposure estimates for 26 wetlands in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. A comparison of wetland doses| derived from model prediction| historical data| and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) characterization| with experimental effects levels for green (R. clamitans)| northern leopard (R. pipiens)| and mink (R. septentrionalis) frogs indicated that the risk of mortality and malformations due to UV exposure is low for the majority of wetlands evaluated. Wetland UV dose| averaged over the entire breeding season| exceeded effects doses for mortality for all three species in two of the 26 wetlands examined and for one species in an additional wetland. On the basis of evidence that shorter term doses caused mortality in amphibian larvae| 3-day doses were also evaluated. In three of the wetlands examined| 3-day doses in excess of 85% of full sunlight(the level that appeared to trigger effects in controlled experimentation) occurred at frequencies ranging 22-100% for all three species and at frequencies ranging from 15% to 58% for R. pipiens and R. septentrionalis in three additional wetlands. Risk of malformation in R. pipiens was apparent in five of the 26 wetlands evaluated. Overall| estimated UVB doses in 21 of the wetlands never exceeded experimental effects doses for mortality or malformations. These results suggest that most amphibians are not currently at significant risk for UVB effects in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin wetlands. However| continued reduction of ozone and other global climate change effects may increase UV doses in wetlands| suggesting that the risk of UV to amphibians should continue to be monitored and studied. 5733,2002,4,3,Atmospheric chemistry of CF3CFHOCF3: Reaction with OH radicals| atmospheric lifetime| and global warming potential,[1] Smog chamber/FTIR techniques were used to study the OH radical initiated oxidation of CF3CFHOCF3 in 700 torr of air diluent at 296 K. Relative rate techniques were used to measure k(1)(OH + CF3CFHOCF3) = (1.4 +/- 0.3) x 10(-15) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The atmospheric lifetime of CF3CFHOCF3 is estimated to be 40 years. The IR spectrum of CF3CFHOCF3 was measured and used to estimate a global warming potential (relative to CO2| 100 year time horizon) for CF3CFHOCF3 of 4500. Results are discussed with respect to the previous literature data. 5815,2002,5,4,Atmospheric nitrous oxide: patterns of global change during recent decades and centuries,Data from weekly global measurements of nitrous oxide from 1981 to the end of 1996 are presented. The results show that there is more N2O in the northern hemisphere by about 0.7 +/- 0.04 ppbv| and the Arctic to Antarctic difference is about 1.2 +/- 0.1 ppbv. Concentrations at locations influenced by continental air are higher than at marine sites| showing the existence of large land-based emissions. For the period studied| N2O increased at an average rate of about 0.6 ppbv/year (similar to0.2%/year) although there were periods when the rates were substantially different. Using ice core data| a record of NO2 can be put together that goes back about 1000 years. It shows pre-industrial levels of about 287 +/- 1 ppbv and that concentrations have now risen by about 27 ppbv or 9.4% over the last century. The ice core data show that N2O started increasing only during the 20th century. The data presented here represent a comprehensive view of the present global distribution of N2O and its historical and recent trends. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 5748,2002,4,4,Behavioural models of population growth rates: implications for conservation and prediction,Conservation biologists often wish to predict how vertebrate populations will respond to local or global changes in conditions such as those resulting from sea-level rise| deforestation| exploitation| genetically modified crops| global warming| human disturbance or from conservation activities. Predicting the consequences of such changes almost always requires understanding the population growth rate and the density dependence. Traditional means of directly measuring density dependence are often extremely difficult and have the problem that if the environment changes then it is necessary to remeasure the density dependence. We describe an alternative approach that does not require such long datasets and can be used to predict the density dependence under novel conditions. Game theory can be used to describe behavioural decisions that individuals make in response to interference| prey depletion| territorial behaviour or social dominance| and the resultant fitness consequences. It is then possible to predict how survival or reproductive output changes with population size. From this we can then make predictions about the responses of populations to environmental changes. We will illustrate how this can be applied to a range of species and a range of applied problems. 5823,2002,3,4,Bringing scientific knowledge from research to the professional fields: the case of the thermal and airflow design of buildings in tropical climates,The need for construction projects to be sustainable is becoming more widely recognised| partly because of diminishing world energy resources| and partly because recent world developments (for example| global warming and increasing oil prices) have made those involved in construction more aware of a new approach to building. We often hear now of buildings with a high environmental rating| of sustainable development| and of improved comfort. The stated objective is to construct comfortable buildings| which use little energy and produce little pollution. This desire on the part of construction project leaders has led to some problems amongst architects. engineers and university researchers who tend to work in isolation from each other. However. the only way to achieve an overall improvement in building design is by close collaboration between the various participants| from when the first sketch of the future building is made. Of course| this task appears difficult because these participants have different approaches| training and 'tools of the trade'. This article aims to show that efficient cooperation between the professionals involved is possible. We will see that by producing an instructive working document| understandable by all and based on expert rules| it is possible to produce buildings which are adapted to the climate. and to spread the scientific knowledge to the more practical professions. We will illustrate our ideas by describing the methodology we used for a building project in the tropics. Finally. we will present a summary for the period 1997-2001 and will show the impact that such collaborations have had on the design of buildings in tropical climates. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5734,2002,3,4,C4F8O/O-2/N-based additive gases for silicon nitride plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition chamber cleaning with low global warming potentials,In this study| N2O and NO were added as additive gases to C4F8O/O-2 for plastria enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) silicon nitride chamber cleaning and their effects on the emission properties of perfluorocarbon compounds (PFCs) were investigated. The cleaning rate| destruction and removal efficiencies (DREs)| and million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) were studied as a function of flow rates of PFCs and additive gases. The use of C4F8O/O-2 alone showed the highest cleaning rate and the lowest emission properties at the cleaning condition of 20%C4F8O/80%O-2| working pressure of 500 mTorr| and 13.56 MHz rf power of 350 W. By the addition of about 20% NO or 20% N2O to the optimized C4H8O/O-2| the additional reduction of MMTCE higher than 50% could be obtained. The addition of NO resulted in lower MMTCE compared to that in the case of the addition of N2O mostly due to the higher silicon nitride cleaning rate in the latter case. 5712,2002,3,2,Carbon and nutrient cycles,Soil erosion and off-site transport of nutrients are reducing soil productivity and impacting water bodies across the world. Additionally| anthropogenic activities are increasing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2)| methane (CH4)| nitrous oxide (N2O)| and nitric oxide (NO) that contribute to global warming. We want to present the concept that nutrient management plans should incorporate soil organic carbon (SOC) management to reduce soil erosion| cycle macro- and micronutrients| increase nutrient use efficiency| and conserve air| soil| and water quality. Plant-derived materials are the primary source of carbon (C) in soil organic matter (SOM)| with C being the most abundant constituent and common partner of nitrogen (N)| phosphorous (P)| and sulfur (S). Manures| compost| and other organic sources can help cycle organic C and other nutrients. Organic C can contribute to forming chelate compounds that increase the availability of essential micronutrients that interchange with the root surface. Management practices that increase C inputs| help reduce erosion| and increase SOC improve soil quality factors such as cation exchange capacity| water holding capacity| aggregate formation| porosity| and drainage. Carbon management and nutrient cycling should be an integral part of nutrient management plans for maintaining the sustainability of our biosphere. 5847,2002,5,3,Carbon dioxide and climate over the past 300 Myr,The link between atmospheric CO2 levels and global warming is an axiom of current public policy| and is well supported by physicochemical experiments| by comparative planetary climatology and by geochemical modelling. Geological tests of this idea seek to compare proxies of past atmospheric CO2 with other proxies of palaeotemperature. For at least the past 300 Myr| there is a remarkably high temporal correlation between peaks of atmospheric CO2| revealed by study of stomatal indices of fossil leaves of Ginkgo| Lepidopteris| Tatarina and Rhachiphyllum| and palaeotemperature maxima| revealed by oxygen isotopic (6180) composition of marine biogenic carbonate. Large and growing databases on these proxy indicators support the idea that atmospheric CO2 and temperature are coupled. In contrast| CO2-temperature uncoupling has been proposed from geological time-series of carbon isotopic composition of palaeosols and of marine phytoplankton compared with foraminifera| which fail to indicate high CO2 at known times of high palaeotemperature. Failure of carbon isotopic palaeobarometers may be due to episodic release of CH4| which has an unusually light isotopic value (down to -110parts per thousand| and typically -60parts per thousanddelta(13)C) and which oxidizes rapidly (within 7-24 yr) to isotopically light CO2. Past CO2 highs (above 2000 ppmv) were not only times of catastrophic release of CH4 from clathrates| but of asteroid and comet impacts| flood basalt eruptions and mass extinctions. The primary reason for iterative return to low CO2 was carbon consumption by hydrolytic weathering and photosynthesis| perhaps stimulated by mountain uplift and changing patterns of oceanic thermohaline circulation. Sequestration of carbon was promoted in the long term by such evolutionary innovations as the lignin of forests and the sod of grasslands| which accelerated physicochemical weathering and delivery of nutrients to fuel oceanic productivity and carbon burial. 5681,2002,4,3,Carbon in the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere in the 21st century,The release of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion and land-use change has caused a significant perturbation in the natural cycling of carbon between land| atmosphere and oceans. Understanding and managing the effects of this disruption on atmospheric composition and global climate are likely to be amongst the most pressing issues of the 21st century. However| the present-day carbon cycle is still poorly understood. One remarkable feature is that an increasing amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide appears to be being absorbed by terrestrial vegetation. I review the recent evidence for the magnitude and spatial distribution of this 'terrestrial carbon sink'| drawing on current research on the global atmospheric distribution and transport of carbon dioxide| oxygen and their isotopes; direct measurement Of CO2 fluxes above various biomes; and inventories of forest biomass and composition. I review the likely causes of these carbon sinks and sources and their implications for the ecology and stability of these biomes. Finally| I examine prospects and key issues over coming decades. Within a few years| satellite measurements of atmospheric CO2 and forest biomass| coupled with 'real-time' biosphere-atmosphere models| will revolutionize our understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Controlling deforestation and managing forests has the potential to play a significant but limited part in reaching the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However| there are likely to be limits to the amount of carbon storage possible in natural vegetation| and| in the long term| terrestrial carbon storage may be unstable| with the potential to accelerate rather than brake global warming. 2947,2002,3,4,Carbon storage and sequestration by urban trees in the USA,Based on field data from 10 USA cities and national urban tree cover data| it is estimated that urban trees in the coterminous USA currently store 700 million tonnes of carbon ($14|300 million value) with a gross carbon sequestration rate of 22.8 million tC/yr ($460 million/year). Carbon storage within cities ranges from 1.2 million tC in New York| NY| to 19|300 tC in Jersey City| NJ. Regions with the greatest proportion of urban land are the Northeast (8.5%) and the southeast (7.1%). Urban forests in the north central| northeast| south central and southeast regions of the USA store and sequester the most carbon| with average carbon storage per hectare greatest in southeast| north central| northeast and Pacific northwest regions| respectively. The national average urban forest carbon storage density is 25.1 tC/ha| compared with 53.5 tC/ha in forest stands. These data can be used to help assess the actual and potential role of urban forests in reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide| a dominant greenhouse gas. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 5778,2002,2,4,Causes and consequences of thermal tolerance limits in rocky intertidal porcelain crabs| genus Petrolisthes,Vertical zonation of intertidal organisms| from the shallow subtidal to the supralittoral zones| is a ubiquitous feature of temperate and tropical rocky shores. Organisms that live higher oil the shore experience larger daily and seasonal fluctuations in microhabitat conditions| due to their greater exposure to terrestrial conditions during emersion. Comparative analyses of the adaptive linkage between physiological tolerance limits and vertical distribution are the most powerful when the study species are closely related and occur in discrete vertical zones throughout the intertidal range. Here| I summarize work on (lie physiological tolerance limits of rocky intertidal zone porcelain crab species of the genus Petrolisthes to emersion-related heat stress. In the eastern Pacific| Petrolisthes species live throughout temperate and tropical regions| and are found in discrete vertical intertidal zones in each region. Whole organism thermal tolerance limits of Petrolisthes species| and thermal limits of heart and nerve function reflect microhabitat conditions. Species living higher in the intertidal zone are more eurythermal than low-intertidal congeners| tropical species have the highest thermal limits| and the differences in thermal tolerance between low- and high-intertidal species is greatest for temperate crabs. Acclimation of thermal limits of high-intertidal species is restricted as compared to low-intertidal species. Thus| because thermal limits of high-intertidal species are near current habitat temperature maxima| global warming could most strongly impact intertidal species. 5843,2002,3,4,CFC phase-out: have we met the challenge?,In 1974 Nobel prize winners Rowland and Molina proposed that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were stable enough to reach the stratosphere| where| under intense solar radiation they released Cl atoms that could destroy stratospheric ozone protecting the earth's surface from UV rays| The CFC industry funded both scientific studies to test the Rowland and Molina hypothesis and programmes to identify potential replacements| front which the HFCs emerged as likely candidates. After 5 years it was concluded. on the best scientific evidence available| that stratospheric ozone was being depleted at similar to3% per decade| but sufficient time was available for an orderly phase-out. Although the USA and a few other countries stopped the use of CFCs in aerosols little further work was done until 1985 when the CFC debate was renewed following the discovery of stratospheric ozone depletion over the Antarctic during its spring. Manufacturers restarted their RD programmes; governments negotiated the Montreal Protocol in 1987 agreeing the partial phase-out of the CFCs. As a result of subsequent amendments CFCs have now been phased-out in the developed world and HCFCs will follow over the next two decades. This paper reviews What has been achieved and what remains to be done. Has the world-Aide effort been successful in protecting the ozone layer? Have "acceptable" alternatives been found for the CFCs/HCFCs in their various applications? (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. 2892,2002,4,3,Challenges for mycorrhizal research into the new millennium,Some future directions for mycorrhizal research are discussed. Data from The IPCC Third Assessment Reports 2001 on elevated carbon dioxide the concentration and consequences regarding global climate change| form the basis for arguments that a better understanding of the mycorrhizal activities with regard to controlling carbon flow and plant nutrient flow is essential. Mycorrhiza can be regarded as energy and nutrient switches in the plant roots and it is suggested that more studies on mycorrhizal carbon relations are necessary. The impact of the genomic research era on mycorrhizal research is suggested to be of major importance during the years to come| and it is claimed that stronger interactions between different disciplines will be essential. 5864,2002,4,4,Changes in Antarctic Peninsula tropospheric temperatures from 1956 to 1999: A synthesis of observations and reanalysis data,The surface warming at Faraday station in the western Antarctic Peninsula is one of the largest observed anywhere over the last 50 years| yet the physical mechanisms driving this climate change are poorly understood. In this paper we synthesize radiosonde temperature observations from three Peninsula stations and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data in order to examine contemporaneous regional tropospheric temperature trends (1956-99)| which may in turn help us to understand better the causes of the surface warming. The reanalysis data are utilized in two ways: (i) to provide long-term mean monthly offsets between Faraday| which ceased radiosonde observations in 1982| and two other stations in the region having more recent data| Bellingshausen and Marambio| in order to create post-1982 simulated Faraday data; (ii) after having any spurious trends and bias removed| to provide directly a monthly value for Faraday when no equivalent value from regional observations is available. Using available months of overlap| a comparison between temperature observations and simulated data suggests that the latter are a reasonable facsimile of the former. The synthesized time-series of tropospheric temperatures reveal a statistically significant mean annual tropospheric (850-300 hPa) warming above Faraday between 1956 and 1999 of similar to0.027 +/- 0.022degreesC year(-1). Winter and summer both show a warming trend| with significance varying with height and season. Annually| the mean tropospheric warming is half that at the surface| Unlike the surface warming| the calculated tropospheric warming trend is no greater than observed at other Antarctic stations| and indeed is not significantly greater than the background global warming trend for most of the period examined. Thus| we cannot dismiss the possibility that the Peninsula surface warming may simply be a response to a global warming magnified by the observed strong regional feedback between sea-ice extent and surface temperature during winter. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. 5772,2002,3,3,Changes in the use and management of forests for abating carbon emissions: issues and challenges under the Kyoto Protocol,The global carbon cycle is significantly influenced by changes in the use and management of forests and agriculture. Humans have the potential through changes in land use and management to alter the magnitude of forest-carbon stocks and the direction of forest-carbon fluxes. However| controversy over the use of biological means to absorb or reduce emissions of CO2 (often referred to as carbon 'sinks') has arisen in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. The controversy is based primarily on two arguments: sinks may allow developed nations to delay or avoid actions to reduce fossil fuel emissions| and the technical and operational difficulties are too threatening to the successful implementation of land use and forestry projects for providing carbon offsets. Here we discuss the importance of including carbon sinks in efforts to address global warming and the consequent additional social| environmental and economic benefits to host countries. Activities in tropical forest lands provide the lowest cost methods both of reducing emissions and reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. We conclude that the various objections raised as to the inclusion of carbon sinks to ameliorate climate change can be addressed by existing techniques and technology. Carbon sinks provide a practical available method of achieving meaningful reductions in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide while at the same time contribute to national sustainable development goals. 5703,2002,4,3,Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: Implications for acid deposition| air pollution| and climate,In the early 1990s| it was projected that annual SO2 emissions in Asia might grow to 80-110 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. Based on new high-resolution estimates from 1975 to 2000| we calculate that SO2 emissions in Asia might grow only to 40-45 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. The main reason for this lower estimate is a decline of SO2 emissions from 1995 to 2000 in China| which emits about two-thirds of Asian SO2. The decline was due to a reduction in industrial coal use| a slow-down of the Chinese economy| and the closure of small and inefficient plants| among other reasons. One effect of the reduction in SO2 emissions in China has been a reduction in acid deposition not only in China but also in Japan. Reductions should also improve visibility and reduce health problems. SO2 emission reductions may increase global warming| but this warming effect could be partially offset by reductions in the emissions of black carbon. How SO2 emissions in the region change in the coming decades will depend on many competing factors (economic growth| pollution control laws| etc.). However a continuation of current trends would result in sulfur emissions lower than any IPCC forecasts. 5828,2002,4,4,Characterization of Arabidopsis photolyase enzymes and analysis of their role in protection from ultraviolet-B radiation,DNA photolyases are enzymes which mediate the light-dependent repair (photoreactivation) of UV-induced damage products in DNA by direct reversal of base damage rather than via excision repair pathways. Arabidopsis thaliana contains two photolyalses specific for photoreactivation of either cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs) or pyrimidine (6-4)pyrimidones (6-4PPs)| the two major UV-B-induced photoproducts in DNA. Reduced FADH and a reduced pterin were identified as cofactors; of the native Arabidopsis CPD photolyase protein. This is the first report of the chromophore composition of any native class II CPD photolyase protein to our knowledge. CPD photolyase protein levels vary between tissues and with leaf age and are highest in flowers and leaves of 3-5-week-old Arabidopsis plants. White light or UV-B irradiation induces CPD photolyase expression in Arabidopsis tissues. This contrasts with the 6-4PP photolyase protein which is constitutively expressed and not regulated by either white or UV-B light. Arabidopsis CPD and 6-4PP photolyase enzymes can remove UV-B-induced photoproducts from DNA in planta even when plants are grown under enhanced levels of UV-B irradiation and at elevated temperatures although the rate of removal of CPDs is slower at high growth temperatures. These studies indicate that Arabidopsis possesses the photorepair capacity to respond effectively to increased UV-Binduced DNA damage under conditions predicted to be representative of increases in UV-B irradiation levels at the Earth's surface and global warming in the twenty-first century. 5940,2002,3,3,Clean and secure energy for the twenty-first century,"As energy demand world-wide continues to rise| fuelling the expanding economy| the twin problems of security of supply and rising carbon dioxide emissions have risen high in the global agenda. Can economic growth be sustained without increasing energy demand? Is the prospect of global warming and the destabilisation of the weather machine so daunting that a global carbon tax should be instituted? Can renewable energy replace fossil fuel in the next 50 years? Will nuclear energy re-emerge as the high technology solution to our problems?" 5764,2002,2,4,Climate change and water resources in Lebanon and the Middle East,While the extent of human-induced global warming is inconclusive| the vulnerability of natural systems to rapid changes in climate patterns is regarded as one of the most challenging issues in recent years. Water resources are a main component of natural systems that might be affected by climate change. This paper characterizes water resources in several Middle Eastern countries and evaluates regional climate predictions for various scenarios using general circulation models. The country of Lebanon is selected as a case study for an in-depth investigation with potential impacts on the water budget and soil moisture as indicators. Adaptation measures are assessed| with a focus on no-regret actions in the context of local socioeconomic and environmental frameworks. 5754,2002,2,4,Climate change and winter survival of perennial forage crops in eastern Canada,Severe winter climatic conditions cause recurrent damage to perennial forage crops in eastern Canada. Predicted increases of 2 to 6 C in minimum temperature during winter months due to global warming will likely affect survival of forage crops. Potential impacts of climate change on overwintering of perennial forage crops in eastern Canada were assessed using climatic indices reflecting risks of winter injuries related to cold intensity and duration| lack of snow cover| inadequate cold hardiness| soil heaving| and ice encasement. Climatic indices were calculated for 22 agricultural regions in eastern Canada for the current climate (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2010-2039 and 2040-2069). Climate scenario data were extracted from the first-generation Canadian Global Coupled General Circulation Model. Compared with current conditions| the hardening period in 2040 to 2069 would be shorter by 4.0 d| with a lower accumulation of hardiness-inducing cool temperatures. The period during which a temperature less than or equal to-15degreesC can occur (cold period) would be reduced by 23.8 d| and the number of days with snow cover of at least 0.1 m would be reduced by 39.4 d. Consequently| the number of days with a protective snow cover during the cold period would be reduced by 15.6 d. Under predicted future climate| risks of winter injury to perennial forage crops in eastern Canada will likely increase because of less cold hardening during fall and reduced protective snow cover during the cold period| which will increase exposure of plants to killing frosts| soil heaving| and ice encasement.
5845,2002,2,3,Climate change as a threat to tourism in the Alps,Switzerland's economy depends heavily on tourism. For many alpine areas in the country| winter tourism is the most important source of income| and snow-reliability is one of the key elements of the offers made by tourism in the Alps. The financial viability of winter tourism| however| depends on sufficient snow conditions. The lack of snow at the end of the 1980s left a lasting imprint on the tourism industry. If the assumptions of the impacts of climate change hold true| snow cover in the Swiss Alps will diminish| and this will| in turn| jeopardise the tourism industry. 85% of Switzerland's current ski resorts can be designated as snow-reliable. If climate change occurs| the level of snow-reliability will rise from 1200 m up to 1800 m over the next few decades. Only 44% of the ski resorts would then still be snow-reliable. While some regions may be able to maintain their winter tourism with suitable adaptation strategies| others would lose all winter tourism due to a diminishing snow pack. Despite global warming| it is impossible to exclude the possibility of winters with heavy snowfall in the future (e.g. the winter of 1998/99| particularly February 1999). Climate change must be viewed as a catalyst that is reinforcing and accelerating the pace of structural changes in tourism. Today| adaptation strategies are predominant in tourism (e.g. artificial snow production). As an industry that will be severely affected by climate change| however| tourism will increasingly have to focus on mitigation strategies (e.g. less greenhouse gas emissions by tourism traffic). 5805,2002,2,4,Climate change in India inferred from geothermal observations,[1] Temporal variations in surface ground temperature impart a signal to the subsurface thermal regime that is captured in borehole temperature-depth profiles. Seventy temperature-depth profiles in India| located between 12degrees and 28degreesN| are analyzed to infer past changes in ground temperature. These profiles exhibit predominantly positive anomalous temperatures relative to the background thermal regime beginning at depths of 75-150 m and increasing toward the surface. This pattern is consistent with warming over the past century. An interpretation in terms of linear surface temperature change indicates warming of about 0.9degrees +/- 0.1 degreesC over the past 150 years. Relatively complete surface air temperature (SAT) records from meteorological stations near the boreholes indicate similar rates of warming over the last century. A combined analysis of borehole temperatures and SAT records yields a long-term| preobservational mean temperature| 0.8degrees +/- 0.1 degreesC lower than the 1961-1990 mean SAT. When the most recent decade is included directly in the analysis| the average total warming in India from the early 1800s to the late 1990s is similar to1.2degrees C. 5865,2002,2,4,Climate change in the Colorado Rocky Mountains: Free air versus surface temperature trends,A high elevation data set of surface temperatures from the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado| USA| is analysed for evidence of long-term change (1952-98). Sites range from the high plains of Colorado (1509 m) to the alpine tundra (3749 m). Systematic changes in surface-based lapse rates are uncovered| with absolute cooling at the hi-hest elevations| but little temperature change on the high plains. There is lapse-rate steepening at the higher elevations (>3000 m). A synoptic analysis using gridded pressure data shows lapse rate changes to be largely independent of synoptic type. Radiosonde ascents from Denver (1956-98) and Grand Junction (1946-98) are used to derive air equivalent temperatures (AETs) at the same elevations as the surface records. AETs show a contrasting temporal trend| with absolute warming at all levels. Furthermore| free-air lapse rates are weakening at higher elevations| the warming becoming stronger with height. A comparison of the two data sets through derivation of free-air-surface temperature differences shows that the alpine tundra zone of the high Rockies is becoming a progressively stronger heat sink. Possible explanations include increased snow cover| enhanced air movement over the surface and decreased solar radiation input. The heat sink enhancement has led to rapid cooling in the alpine tundra that could not be predicted from the free-air record| casting doubt upon the strong dependence on free-air temperature changes in climate modelling when investigating the potential effects of global warming in mountainous regions. In addition| these local surface trends are of the opposite sign to global and other regional trends identified in many recent observational and modelling studies. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. 2862,2002,2,4,Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe| Germany),The impact of a climate change scenario on regional climate conditions and runoff characteristics has been investigated for the Mulde catchment| a meso-scale sub-basin of the Elbe in Germany. First| the semi-distributed| conceptual model HBV-D has been successfully applied to simulate discharge for present climate conditions. Further| the expanded downscaling method (EDS) was calibrated and applied to observed global circulation fields in order to produce local climate input data for HBV-D. Finally| the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM4/OPYC3| driven by a climate change scenario| provided simulated global circulation patterns for application with EDS. The regionalised scenario conditions then served as input to HBV-D in order to investigate the impact of global climate change on regional hydrology. The results indicate that an obvious increase in temperature is accompanied by a clear tendency to reduced precipitation over the investigated area for the next 100 years. These conditions lead to a decrease in simulated mean discharges of the Mulde. The study is considered to be a contribution for regional impact studies on global climate change. At the same time| it demonstrates existing shortcomings and limitations of current climate impact research. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5789,2002,4,2,Climate feedbacks at the tundra-taiga interface,Feedbacks| or internal interactions| play a crucial role in the climate system. Negative feedback will reduce the impact of an external perturbation| a positive feedback will amplify the effect and could lead to an unstable system. Many of the feedbacks found in the climate system are positive; thus| for example| increasing CO2 levels will increase temperature| reduce the snow cover| increase the absorption of radiation and hence increase temperature further. The most obvious feedbacks| such as the snow example quoted above| are already included within our models of the climate and earth system. Others| such as the impact of increasing forest cover due to global warming| are only just being included. Others| such as| the impact of global warming on the northern peatlands and the impact of freshwater flows on the Arctic Ocean are not yet considered. The contrast in surface characteristics between low tundra vegetation to high taiga forest is considerable. The contrast is greatest in the winter| when the tundra is snow covered but the trees of the taiga protrude through the snow pack| and is probably the greatest contrast found on the land surface anywhere. This variation causes massive changes in the energy fluxes at the surface and hence the temperature conditions on the ground and within the atmosphere. There will be large resultant changes in the vegetation development| the carbon fluxes| the permafrost and the hydrology. The Arctic is already experiencing change and it is essential for us to understand the basic processes| and how these interact| to be confident of our predictions of environmental change in the future. 5786,2002,2,4,Climate variations and the physiological basis of temperature dependent biogeography: systemic to molecular hierarchy of thermal tolerance in animals,The physiological mechanisms limiting and adjusting cold and heat tolerance have regained interest in the light of global warming and associated shifts in the geographical distribution of ectothermic animals. Recent comparative studies| largely carried out on marine ectotherms| indicate that the processes and limits of thermal tolerance are linked with the adjustment of aerobic scope and capacity of the whole animal as a crucial step in thermal adaptation on top of parallel adjustments at the molecular or membrane level. In accordance with Shelford's law of tolerance decreasing whole animal aerobic scope characterises the onset of thermal limitation at low and high pejus thresholds (pejus = getting worse). The aerobic scope of an animal indicated by falling oxygen levels in the body fluids and or the progressively limited capacity of circulatory and ventilatory mechanisms. At high temperatures| excessive oxygen demand causes insufficient oxygen levels in the body fluids| whereas at low temperatures the aerobic capacity of mitochondria may become limiting for ventilation and circulation. Further cooling or warming beyond these limits leads to low or high critical threshold temperatures (T-c) where aerobic scope disappears and transition to an anaerobic mode of mitochondrial metabolism and progressive insufficiency of cellular energy levels occurs. The adjustments of mitochondrial densities and their functional properties appear as a critical process in defining and shifting thermal tolerance windows. The finding of an oxygen limited thermal tolerance owing to loss of aerobic scope is in line with Taylor's and Weibel's concept of symmorphosis| which implies that excess capacity of any component of the oxygen delivery system is avoided. The present study suggests that the capacity of oxygen delivery is set to a level just sufficient to meet maximum oxygen demand between the average highs and lows of environmental temperatures. At more extreme temperatures only time limited passive survival is supported by anaerobic metabolism or the protection of molecular functions by heat shock proteins and antioxidative defence. As a corollary| the first line of thermal sensitivity is due to capacity limitations at a high level of organisational complexity| i.e. the integrated function of the oxygen delivery system| before individual| molecular or membrane functions become disturbed. These interpretations are in line with the more general consideration that| as a result of the high level of complexity of metazoan organisms compared with simple eukaryotes and then prokaryotes| thermal tolerance is reduced in metazoans. A similar sequence of sensitivities prevails within the metazoan organism| with the highest sensitivity at the organismic level and wider tolerance windows at lower levels of complexity. However| the situation is different in that loss in aerobic scope and progressive hypoxia at the organismic level define the onset of thermal limitation which then transfers to lower hierarchical levels and causes cellular and molecular disturbances. Oxygen limitation contributes to oxidative stress and| finally| denaturation or malfunction of molecular repair| e.g. during suspension of protein synthesis. The sequence of thermal tolerance limits turns into a hierarchy| ranging from systemic to cellular to molecular levels. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Inc. 2885,2002,2,2,Climate-mediated energetic constraints on the distribution of hibernating mammals,To predict the consequences of human-induced global climate change| we need to understand how climate is linked to biogeography(1). Energetic constraints are commonly invoked to explain animal distributions| and physiological parameters are known to vary along distributional gradients(2). But the causal nature of the links between climate and animal biogeography remain largely obscure(2|3). Here we develop a bioenergetic model that predicts the feasibility of mammalian hibernation under different climatic conditions. As an example| we use the well-quantified hibernation energetics of the little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus) to parameterize the model(4). Our model predicts pronounced effects of ambient temperature on total winter energy requirements| and a relatively narrow combination of hibernaculum temperatures and winter lengths permitting successful hibernation. Microhabitat and northern distribution limits of M. lucifugus are consistent with model predictions| suggesting that the thermal dependence of hibernation energetics constrains the biogeography of this species. Integrating projections of climate change into our model predicts a pronounced northward range expansion of hibernating bats within the next 80 years. Bioenergetics can provide the simple link between climate and biogeography needed to predict the consequences of climate change. 5943,2002,2,4,Climatic change and quasi-oscillations in central-west Argentina summer precipitation: main features and coherent behaviour with southern African region,Summer rainfall variability (October to March) shows inter-annual to multi-decadal fluctuations over a vast area of subtropical Argentina between 28degreesS-38degreesS and 65degreesW-70degreesW. Statistically significant oscillations of quasi-period in the bands of 18-21| 6| 4 and 2 years can be found throughout the region and intra-regionally| though the latter are variable. The lower frequency variation produces alternating episodes of above and below normal rainfall each lasting roughly 9 years. This quasi-fluctuation appears to be shared with the summer rainfall region of South Africa and were in-phase related one another until mid-1970s. The teleconnection between both subtropical regions could be generated by an atmospheric-oceanic bridge through the global sea surface temperatures (SSTs)| particularly those of the equatorial-tropical South Atlantic. From mid-1970s| the alternating wet and dry pattern has been interrupted in the Argentine region producing the longest| as yet unfinished| wet spell of the century| Thus| a significant change of the long-term variation was observed around 1977 toward lower frequencies. Since then the statistical model that explains more than 89% of the variance of the series until 1977| diverges from the observed values in the 1980s and 1990s. In addition the Yamamoto statistical index| employed to detect a climatic jump| reaches its major value in 1973 at the beginning of the current long wet spell. Therefore the change could be located between 1973 and 1977. Application of the t-student's test gives significant differences of mean values or pre-1977 and post-1977 sub-samples from both individual time series and the regional index series. The spectral analysis also shows changes in energy bands in concordance with the features of the change that occurred from mid-1970s. The change gives rise to a significant increment of more than 20% in average of normal rainfall over the region. Conversely| a drought between mid-1980s and the 1990s has been observed in the South African counterpart with severe characteristics| thereby continuing the quasi-18-year oscillation. Consequently| the low-frequency coherent behaviour between both the Argentine and South African regions is lost from the mid-1970s. The analysis of association of wet/dry spells and warm/cold| El Nino/La Nina episodes appears to be not significant at scales of year-to-year variability although at decadal to multi-decadal scales the association could be relevant. More than one process of multi-decadal variability of global SSTs could influence the Argentine summer rainfall region and the former bi-decadal teleconnection. Finally| potential hypothetical factors of change are discussed| such as the strengthening of direct and indirect mechanisms of moisture flux transport associated with global warming| low-level atmospheric circulation changes and/or to SSTs mean condition long-term variations over tropical and subtropical South Atlantic and South Pacific oceans. 5695,2002,2,4,Climatology of yellow sand (Asian sand| Asian dust or Kosa) in East Asia,In order to study climatology of yellow sand (Asian sand| Asian dust or Kosa) in East Asia| secular fluctuation in China| Korea and Japan in the recent 30 years was presented. The number of days with sand-dust storm at five stations in China Hotan| Zhangye| Minqin| Jurh and Beijing| decreases a lot at the former three stations| but changed little at the latter two stations. Suggesting that the recent global warming is more evident in Xinjiang and Gansu| where the frequency of cold air invasions from the higher latitudes is decreasing. But| the eastern parts of Mongolia| inner Mongolia| and North China encounter stronger cyclones in early spring as a result of global warming. These cyclones bring cold air from higher latitudes| causing severe dust storms. Secular variation in the annual days with sand-dust storms in China and Kosa days in Korea and Japan show a parallel change with higher frequency from 1975 to 1985. This may be related to the higher frequency of La Nina years. However| different tendency was shown in the period from 1986 to 1996. Since 1996 or 1997| a sharp increase is clear| which may be caused by the developed cyclones in East Asia as well as human activities| and stronger land degradation under La Nina conditions. Anomalies of the total number of stations with Kosa days were discussed in accordance with some synoptic meteorological conditions such as the differences between Siberian anticyclone and Aleutian cyclone center at 500 hPa level during the previous winter. 5885,2002,3,3,CO2 credit or energy credit in emission trading?,Emission trading is a good concept and approach to tackle global warming. However| what "currency" or "credit" should be used in the trading has remained a debatable topic. This paper proposed an "Energy Credit" concept as an alternative to the "CO2 credit" that is currently in place. From the thermodynamic point of view| the global warming problem is an "energy balance" problem. The energy credit concept is thought to be more thermodynamically correct and tackles the core of the global warming problem more directly. The Energy credit concept proposed can be defined as: the credit to offset the extra energy trapped/absorbed in the earth (and its atmosphere) due to the extra anthropogenic emission (or other activities) by a country or company. A couple of examples are given in the paper to demonstrate the concept of the Energy credit and its advantages over the CO2 credit concept. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 2845,2002,2,4,Combined nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequences resolve generic relationships within the Cracidae (Galliformes| Aves),The Cracidae is one of the most endangered and distinctive bird families in the Neotropics| yet the higher relationships among taxa remain uncertain. The molecular phylogeny of its 11 genera was inferred using 10|678 analyzable sites (5|412 from seven different mitochondrial segments and 5|266 sites from four nuclear genes). We performed combinability tests to check conflicts in phylogenetic signals of separate genes and genomes. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the unrooted tree of ((curassows| horned guan) (guans| chachalacas)) was favored by most data partitions and that different data partitions provided support for different parts of the tree. In particular| the concatenated mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genes resolved shallower nodes| whereas the combined nuclear sequences resolved the basal connections among the major clades of curassows| horned guan| chachalacas| and guans. Therefore| we decided that for the Cracidae all data should be combined for phylogenetic analysis. Maximum parsimony (MP)| maximum likelihood (ML)| and Bayesian analyses of this large data set produced similar trees. The MP tree indicated that guans are the sister group to (horned guan| (curassows| chachalacas))| whereas the ML and Bayesian analysis recovered a tree where the horned guan is a sister clade to curassows| and these two clades had the chachalacas as a sister group. Parametric bootstrapping showed that alternative trees previously proposed for the cracid genera are significantly less likely than our estimate of their relationships. A likelihood ratio test of the hypothesis of a molecular clock for cracid mtDNA sequences using the optimal ML topology did not reject rate constancy of substitutions through time. We estimated cracids to have originated between 64 and 90 million years ago (MYA)| with a mean estimate of 76 MYA. Diversification of the genera occurred approximately 41-3 MYA| corresponding with periods of global climate change and other Earth history events that likely promoted divergences of higher level taxa. 5918,2002,3,4,Comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from solid pig manure during storage versus during composting with respect to different dry matter contents,The green house gas emissions from pig manure during storage were compared with those during composting. The manure was prepared artificially by mixing liquid pig manure with different amounts of straw giving dry matter contents of 14%| 18% and 22%. The incubations were carried out for 97 days at 25 degreesC in 100 L scale. GC equipped with an FID| ECD and WLD detected the concentrations of methane| nitrous oxide| oxygen and carbon dioxide. Ammonia emissions were measured by titration. The global warming potential| calculated in CO(2) equivalents per kg dry matter of excreta were obtained by use of the specific global warming potential (100 year time horizon) for nitrous oxide and methane. The indirect global warming potential of ammonia was calculated by additional use of the specific emission factor of 0.01| which means that 1% of emitted ammonia is converted to nitrous oxide. The most important gas for global warming was found to be nitrous oxide. This gas contributed to 71 to 85% to total CO(2) equivalents. At low dry matter contents methane becomes more important and contributes to maximum 28% of total CO(2) equivalents. The global warming potential of ammonia amounted only up to 14%. For relatively low dry matter contents of 14 and 18% the composting process reduced CO(2) equivalents to 28 to 55% of the values from storage. With high straw amendment (22% dry matter content) the storage emitted only 65% of the CO(2) equivalents from composting. The amendment of high amounts of wheat straw to manure with low dry matter content reduced the relatively high emissions from storage process much better than composting of manure with low dry matter content. 5728,2002,4,4,Comparison of satellite altimetry to tide gauge measurement of sea level: Predictions of glacio-isostatic adjustment,Modern rates of sea level change are of interest because of concerns that global warming may be causing glacier retreat. Both tide gauges and satellite radar altimetry are used to measure the present rates of change in sea level. Tide gauges measure sea level relative to the ocean floor whereas the reference for satellite altimetry is the earth's center. A numerical model of deformation of the earth's solid surface and its geoid forced by melting ice sheets| both past and present| is used to predict the present rate of sea level change as measured by tide gauges and satellites. Sea level change observed by both tide gauges and satellites are predicted to be spatially nonuniform. Considering only past ice sheets tide gauges in glaciated regions would record a fall in sea level of -13 mm yr(-1)| whereas satellite altimetry would record a rise in sea level of 0.7 mm yr(-1). In the region peripheral to the glaciated zone a tide gauge would record a rise in sea level (3 mm yr(-1)) in contrast to a predicted fall in sea level (-0.3 mm yr(-1)) recorded with satellite altimetry. Near regions once glaciated| the rate of sea level change as recorded by satellite decays more rapidly than the tide gauge sea level signature and so isostatic adjustment caused by past ice sheets contributes proportionately less to the modern rate of sea level change as measured by satellites than by tide gauges. At regions distant from glaciated areas both tide gauges and satellites would record a slight (-0.3 mm yr(-1)) sea level fall. The immediate elastic sea level response from melting of present ice sheets yields a similar signature for data from both tide gauges and satellite altimetry. Recorded sea level would fall near the meltwater source and at great distance from the source would rise approximately 122% of the oceanwide average sea level amount. Therefore glacio-isostatic processes will contaminate the sea level record measured by satellite less than the tide gauge record. 5911,2002,4,4,Complex coupled system dynamics and the global warming policy problem,A Public Domain| once a velvet carpet of rich buffalo-grass and grama| now an illimitable waste of rattlesnake-bush and tumbleweed| too impoverished to be accepted as a gift by the states within which it lies. Why? Because the ecology of this Southwest happened to be set on a hair trigger. 5846,2002,4,3,Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles,The assessment of uncertainties in global warming projections is often based on expert judgement| because a number of key variables in climate change are poorly quantified. In particular| the sensitivity of climate to changing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the radiative forcing effects by aerosols are not well constrained| leading to large uncertainties in global warming simulations(1). Here we present a Monte Carlo approach to produce probabilistic climate projections| using a climate model of reduced complexity. The uncertainties in the input parameters and in the model itself are taken into account| and past observations of oceanic and atmospheric warming are used to constrain the range of realistic model responses. We obtain a probability density function for the present-day total radiative forcing| giving 1.4 to 2.4 W m(-2) for the 5-95 per cent confidence range| narrowing the global-mean indirect aerosol effect to the range of 0 to -1.2 W m(-2). Ensemble simulations for two illustrative emission scenarios suggest a 40 per cent probability that global-mean surface temperature increase will exceed the range predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)| but only a 5 per cent probability that warming will fall below that range. 5961,2002,2,4,Consumption of fungal sporocarps by Yellowstone grizzly bears,Sign of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) consuming fungal sporocarps (mushrooms and truffles) was observed on 68 occasions during a study of radiomarked bears in the Yellowstone region| 1977-96. Sporocarps also were detected in96 grizzly bear feces. Most fungi consumed by Yellowstone's grizzly bears were members of the Boletaceae (Suillus spp.)| Russulaceae (Russula spp. and Lactarius sp.)| Morchellaceae (Morchella elata)| and Rhizopogonaceae. Consumption of false truffles (Rhizopogon spp.) was indicated by excavations that were deeper| on average (1.1 dm)| than excavations for mushrooms (0.6 dm). Consumptionof sporocarps was most frequent during September (7% of all activity)| although median numbers of sporocarps excavated at feeding sites peaked during both August and September (22-23 excavations/site). Almost all consumption (75%) occurred on edaphically harsh sites typically dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinuscontorta). At broad scales| consumption of sporocarps was most likely where these types of lodgepole pine-dominated sites were extensive or where high-elevation sites supporting mature whitebark pine (P. albicaulis) were rare. The number of sporocarps excavated at a feeding site was greatest when cone crops ofwhitebark pine were small and in stands with abundant lodgepole pine. At finescales| consumption of fungi was positively associated with lodgepole pine basal area and negatively associated with total ground vegetation cover. Becauseof the strong association of sporocarp consumption with lodgepole pine and its disassociation at broad scales with availability of whitebark pine seeds| consumption of mushrooms and truffles by grizzly bears will likely increase in the Yellowstone ecosystem with global warming. Lodgepole pine is predicted to increase and whitebark pine to decline with global warming. 5939,2002,2,3,Continued declines of black abalone along the coast of California: are mass mortalities related to El Nino events?,The intertidal black abalone Haliotis cracherodii has experienced mass mortalities along the coast of California| USA| since the mid-1980s. Mortality is due to infection by a pathogen that leads to a fatal wasting disease called 'withering syndrome'| where the foot of the abalone atrophies until it can no longer adhere to the substratum. Massive die-offs due to withering syndrome were first noted on the Channel Islands in 1986| and by 1992 withering syndrome was observed near Point Conception on the mainland and was suspected to be spreading northward up the coast of California. The timing of the initial mass mortalities following the strong 1982 to 1983 El Nino and an isolated outbreak of withering syndrome in 1988 at Diablo Cove| north of Point Conception| following warm water discharge from a power plant| led to the hypothesis that the onset of mass mortalities due to withering syndrome may be triggered by elevated seawater temperatures. We surveyed black abalone populations at 7 sites along the mainland coast of California (including 3 where withering syndrome was already present) from 1992 to 2001| a period spanning 2 El Nino events| to determine whether (1) withering syndrome and associated declines of black abalone were spreading northward up the coast; and (2) these mass mortalities of black abalone could be related to elevated seawater temperatures during El Nino events. Mass mortalities of black abalone due to withering syndrome were observed at the 5 most southern sites (> 90% decline in numbers in all size classes)| but not at the 2 most northern sites| and there was a clear pattern of decline from south to north over time. Massive die-offs of abalone were not exclusively associated with times of elevated sea surface temperatures due to El Nino. Nevertheless| rapid declines of abalone at 2 sites coincided with the strong 1997 to 1998 El Nino| and declines during El Nino events were faster than those during non-El Nino years. Abalone at the 2 most northern sites| where only slight declines occurred during the 1997 to 1998 El Nino| may not have been infected by disease. It appears| therefore| that in the presence of the pathogen| warm water conditions associated with El Nino may accelerate the development of withering syndrome and the rate of decline of black abalone. Consequently| anthropogenic disturbances| such as discharges of heated water or global warming| may increase the incidence of this fatal disease. 2874,2002,4,4,Continuity of climatological observations with automation temperature and precipitation amounts from AWOS (Automated Weather Observing System),Recent automation of meteorological observations affects homogeneity of the long-term climatological records| which are used to study climate change and variability. In order to avoid false conclusions regarding apparent climate trends| these records must be adjusted to account for biases caused by new instrumentation| computerized processing algorithms and relocation of the observing sites. This study of the effects of automation on two primary climatological elements| temperature and precipitation amounts| was conducted at five stations situated in various climatological regimes across Canada| where concurrent Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS) and manual observations were collected over the period of one year. The authors attempted to assess observations at higher temporal scales: average daytime and night-time temperature; daily maximum and minimum temperature; daily precipitation - in addition to the usual annual| seasonal or monthly precipitation. Individual hourly or daily observations of temperature were grouped according to meteorological conditions that either maximize or minimize instrumental and site differences| e. g.| sky cover and wind speed. Similar electronic temperature sensors were used by both the observer and AWOS| which resulted in a rather small instrumental bias: AWOS reported temperatures that were warmer by up to 0.2degreesC. The siting bias| caused by AWOS typically being installed in the middle of an airfield| was often much more pronounced due to the greater radiative cooling: on average AWOS reported temperature minima that were colder by up to 1.3degreesC. Differences between gauges| especially in resolution and height of the orifice above the ground| were identified as the main source of observed biases. It was not possible to quantify the siting portion of the overall bias. Precipitation was categorized according to the amounts reported by AWOS. In the category of light daily amounts up to 5 mm d(-1)| no consistent reliable relationship between AWOS and the observer could be established| while in the moderate to heavy category of amounts higher than 5 mm d(-1)| AWOS underestimates precipitation by up to 13%. Cases| when either the observer or AWOS reported some precipitation| while the other reported null| were also examined in detail. Over time periods of one month or longer| undercatch by the AWOS automated weighing gauge| as compared to the Type B gauge for rain and the Nipher gauge for snow| is quite severe| on the order of tens of percentage points. This study emphasizes that the availability of at least one or two years of concurrent conventional and automated observations is crucial to the development of adjustment factors| especially for observations of sub-diurnal resolution. With the growing demand for good quality sub- and diurnal resolution data for construction of scenarios of impacts of global climate change on humans and the environment| it is expected that more research on adjusting high temporal resolution data will be required and conducted in the future. 2849,2002,2,4,Contributions of current year photosynthate to fine roots estimated using a C-13-depleted CO2 source,The quantification of root turnover is necessary for a complete understanding of plant carbon (C) budgets| especially in terms of impacts of global climate change. To improve estimates of root turnover| we present a method to distinguish current- from prior-year allocation of carbon (C) to roots in global change experiments by using changes in C-13:C-12 ratios (delta(13)C values) resulting from application of C-13-depleted| tank-derived CO2. In a 4-year study examining effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on reconstructed Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga mensiezii) ecosystems| delta(13)C patterns of fine roots and foliage were measured yearly. Native soil of low nitrogen (N) content was used| so plant N supply relied on natural soil N processes. Under these N-limited conditions| elevated CO2 or temperature did not affect the proportion of fine root C derived from current- year photosynthate. Regression analyses showed that 75% of fine root C originated from current- year photosynthate. The method is useful as an independent measure of the contribution of current- year photosynthate to root C and could be used to improve estimates of root C budgets with concurrent measurements of root C pools. We calculated a C-13 enrichment of root C relative to foliar C of 2%. This enrichment agrees with prior measurements of the enrichment of heterotrophic versus autotrophic plant tissues and must be accounted for when using shifts in foliar delta(13)C to calculate inputs of plant C into the soil. This enrichment probably contributes to the progressive enrichment in C-13 with increasing depth in soil profiles. 5958,2002,2,4,Contributions of hydrological processes to sea level change,We estimate the global mean sea level (GMSL) change using TOPEX/Poseidon satellite radar altimeter measurements and investigate possible contributions from water mass redistribution within the global. hydrological cycle using a few numerical models. We examine the global mean sea level change at seasonal| interannual| and long-term time scales. The atmospheric and hydrological models include the ECMWF operational atmospheric model and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis system. The World Ocean Atlas 1998 and over 19 years' satellite sea surface temperature observations are used-to evaluate steric mean sea level change at different time scales. Both hydrological cycle and steric change provide important contribution to seasonal GMSL change. At interannual time scales| atmospheric water vapor variation shows good correlation to the altimeter observation and can introduce observable changes in the mean sea level. The snow water over Greenland and Antarctica estimated from the ECMWF model also shows encouraging interannual variability during the 1997/1998 El Nino period. Preliminary results show that thermal effect is a major but not a dominant contributor to long-term sea level rise| indicating that snow and ice melting associated With global warming may play an important role in driving GMSL rise. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5861,2002,3,4,Cross-section set and chemistry model for the simulation of c-C4F8 plasma discharges,Great interest exists in c-C4F8 (octafluorocyclobutane or perfluorocyclobutane) etching plasma discharges due to their selectivity and potential for decreasing global warming gas emissions. In order to allow computational exploration of the discharge physics| a numerical model for a c-C4F8 discharge has been constructed. A set of cross sections has been assembled for electron collisions with c-C4F8 based on a combination of ab initio calculations| beam measurements| and swarm (i.e.| electron transport coefficient) analysis. In addition| a chemical reaction set has been proposed and an axisymmetric numerical model has been used to test the cross section and chemical reaction set against experiments. Results show that measured trends are reproduced and absolute values are well represented. A mechanism is suggested for negative atomic fluorine ion (F-) behavior with respect to power. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics. 5832,2002,2,3,Daily maximum and minimum temperature trends in a climate model,[1] The recent observed global warming trend over land has been characterised by a faster warming at night| leading to a considerable decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR). Analysis of simulations of a climate model including observed increases in greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols reveals a similar trend in the DTR of -0.2degreesC per century| albeit of smaller magnitude than the observed -0.8degreesC per century. This trend in the model simulations is related to changes in cloud cover and soil moisture. These results indicate that the observed decrease in the DTR could be a signal of anthropogenic forcing of recent climate change. 5731,2002,2,4,Decomposition of peat from upland boreal forest: Temperature dependence and sources of respired carbon,[1] The response of large stores of carbon in boreal forest soils to global warming is a major uncertainty in predicting the future carbon budget. We measured the temperature dependence of decomposition for upland boreal peat under black spruce forest with sphagnum and feather moss understory using incubation experiments. CO2 efflux rates clearly responded to temperature| which ranged from -10degrees to +8degreesC by similar to2degreesC increments. At temperatures below 0degreesC| significant decomposition was observed in feather moss peat but not in wetter sphagnum peat. Above 0degreesC| decomposition was exponentially related to temperature| corresponding to a Q(10) (the ratio of the rate of CO2 evolution at one temperature divided by that at a temperature 10degreesC cooler) of 4.4 for feather moss and 3.1 for sphagnum peat. The greatest change in CO2 evolution rate with temperature occurred between -2degrees and 0degreesC| which coincided with the phase transition of soil water. We saw no large change in the rate of CO2 evolution between incubation experiments separated by a 6 month storage period for feather moss peat. Stable C isotope measurements of evolved CO2 and the rate of change of CO2 evolution with time suggest different substrates are used to sustain heterotrophic respiration above and below freezing. Radiocarbon signatures of CO2 respired from both types of peat reflected significant contributions from C fixed in the last 35 years ("bomb'' C-14) as well as C fixed prior to 1950. We observed no change in the Delta(14)C of respired CO2 with temperature. Isotopic signatures of peat components showed that a combination of substrates must contribute to the CO2 evolved in our incubations. Decomposition of fine roots (which made up less than 7% of the total peat C) accounted for similar to50% of respired CO2 in feather moss peat and for similar to30% of respired CO2 in sphagnum peat. Fine-grained (< 1 mm)| more humified material that makes up 60-70% of the bulk peat organic carbon contributed significantly to heterotrophic respiration (&SIM;30% in feather moss and &SIM;50% in sphagnum moss peat)| despite slow decomposition rates. Increased temperatures caused enhanced decomposition from all pools without changing their relative contributions. Because the contribution of peat decomposition is a small portion of total soil respiration at the study site| increased respiration rates would be difficult to measure as increased fluxes in the field. Nonetheless| sustained warming could lead to significant loss of C from these peat layers. 2915,2002,4,4,Defining nutritional constraints on carbon cycling in boreal forests - towards a less 'phytocentric' perspective,Growing interest in possible global climate change has underlined the need for better information concerning the way in which carbon partitioning between ecosystem components is influenced by constraints on nutrient availability. Micro-organisms play a fundamental role in the cycling of carbon and nutrients in all ecosystems but the role of fungi in particular is pivotal in boreal forest ecosystems. Traditional models of nutrient cycling are based on methods and concepts developed in agricultural systems where microorganisms are considered primarily as nutrient processors providing plants with inorganic nutrients. The filamentous nature of fungi| their ability to translocate carbon and nutrients between different substrates and the capacity of ectomycorrhizal fungi to utilise organic nutrients have all been largely ignored. In this article| a new model is suggested which emphasises competition for organic nutrients between decomposer organisms and plants| with the plants depending on their associated mycorrhizal fungi for nutrient acquisition. Antagonistic interactions involving nutrient transfer between decomposer and mycorrhizal fungi are proposed as important pathways in nutrient cycling. Due to the nutrient conservative features of decomposer fungi| inorganic nutrients are considered less important for plant nutrition. The implications of the new nutrient cycling model on the carbon balance of boreal forests are discussed. 5870,2002,2,3,Dependence of permafrost conditions on global warming: Comparison of models| scenarios| and paleoclimatic reconstructions,Permafrost-favorable climatic conditions for the 21st century as predicted by two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3) were compared. The severity index [1] related to the air-frost index [2] was used to characterize the local climatic conditions favoring the formation of permafrost. Anthropogenic forcing scenarios involving a general increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration with and without anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions were considered. The model simulations were compared to paleoclimatic reconstructions of the southern boundaries of different permafrost zones for two past warm periods with different degrees of global warming. The method proposed for comparing the model results between themselves and with paleoclimatic data showed that the sensitivity of the continuous permafrost area to global warming differs substantially in different models but is virtually independent of the applied radiation forcing scenarios in an individual model. For the scenario with a constant atmospheric aerosol content| the results of the atmospheric general circulation models were compared to those produced by the IFA RAN climate model of intermediate complexity| whose sensitivity was found to be similar to the sensitivity of the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model. A comparison of the ECHAM4/OPYC3 results to paleoclimatic reconstructions showed that the southern boundary of continuous permafrost over the former USSR region in the Holocene optimum (6000 before present (BP)) is similar to the conditions in the mid-21st century as predicted by the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model with allowance for aerosol emissions. In the absence of aerosol emissions| these conditions were found to be in better agreement with the permafrost distribution during the Eemian interglacial (125 000 BP). 2908,2002,4,2,Detecting climate change at a regional scale: The case of France,[1] An optimal detection method| already used for global climate change detection| is applied to regional anthropogenic climate change detection| in the particular case of France. This case was chosen for the availability of high quality| statistically homogenized near- surface temperature observations on one hand| and high- resolution climate simulations over this region on the other hand. The detection is conducted on centered patterns| in order to only focus on pattern similarities between observations and model predictions. Detection is successful for 30- year trends of summer minimal daily temperatures at a 90% confidence level| while it failed on summer maximal daily and winter temperatures. This partial success is very encouraging as it shows for the first time the detection of a climate change signal at the regional scale which resembles the one computed by a regional climate model. 5829,2002,2,4,Determining critical pre- and post-anthesis periods and physiological processes in Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. exposed to moderately elevated temperatures,To determine the thermosensitive periods and physiological processes in tomato flowers exposed to moderately elevated temperatures| tomato plants (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.| cv. NC 8288) were grown at 28/22 degreesC or 32/26 degreesC day/night temperature regimes and then transferred to the opposite regime for 0-15 d before or 0-24 h after anthesis. For plants initially grown at 28/22 degreesC| moderate temperature stress before anthesis decreased the percentage of fruit set per plant| but did not clarify the thermosensitive period. The same level of stress did not significantly reduce fruit set when applied immediately after anthesis. For plants initially grown at 32/26 degreesC| fruit set was completely prevented unless a relief period of more than 5 d was provided before anthesis. The same level of stress relief for 3-24 h after anthesis also increased fruit set. Plants were most sensitive to 32/26 degreesC temperatures 7-15 d before anthesis. Microscopic investigation of anthers in plants grown continuously at high temperature indicated disruption| of development in the pollen| endothecium| epidermis| and| stomium. This disruption was reduced| but. still observable in plants relieved from high temperature for 10 d before anthesis. 2858,2002,4,4,Determining effects of area burned and fire severity on carbon cycling and emissions in Siberia,The Russian boreal forest contains about 25% of the global terrestrial biomass| and even a higher percentage of the carbon stored in litter and soils. Fire burns large areas annually| much of it in low-severity surface fires - but data on fire area and impacts or extent of varying fire severity are poor. Changes in land use| cover| and disturbance patterns such as those predicted by global climate change models| have the potential to greatly alter current fire regimes in boreal forests and to significantly impact global carbon budgets. The extent and global importance of fires in the boreal zone have often been greatly underestimated. For the 1998 fire season we estimate from remote sensing data that about 13.3 million ha burned in Siberia. This is about 5 times higher than estimates from the Russian Aerial Forest Protection Service (Avialesookhrana) for the same period. We estimate that fires in the Russian boreal forest in 1998 constituted some 14-20% of average annual global carbon emissions from forest fires. Average annual emissions from boreal zone forests may be equivalent to 23-39% of regional fossil fuel emissions in Canada and Russia| respectively. But the lack of accurate data and models introduces large potential errors into these estimates. Improved monitoring and understanding of the landscape extent and severity of fires and effects of fire on carbon storage| air chemistry| vegetation dynamics and structure| and forest health and productivity are essential to provide inputs into global and regional models of carbon cycling and atmospheric chemistry. 5738,2002,3,4,Developing a sustainable energy strategy for a water utility. Part II: a review of potential technologies and approaches,Environmental legislation is increasing the amounts of bought-in electricity required for sewage treatment| and generating larger volumes of sewage sludge to be treated and disposed of Concurrently| concerns over global warming and food safety from sewage sludge recycling on agricultural land is augmenting the costs of conventional sewage and sludge treatment technologies and practices. This paper reviews some emerging technologies and practices that may assist in mitigating these problems in the future. In addition| a number of potential renewable energy technologies available to water companies are reviewed. Results suggest that through the take-up of new technologies| current and future water quality standards could be delivered in a more sustainable way. However| this series of papers also highlights that institutional and political conflicts may have inadvertently failed to recognise the wider effects of improving water quality and lessened the financial support necessary for their widespread take-up. It is also suggested that through the use of a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approach| stakeholders could gain a better understanding of the broader environmental effects of achieving certain water quality standards and develop policy and long-term investment strategies accordingly. However| to fulfil the information requirements of an SEA| an appropriate appraisal tool that considers many of these factors in unison is required| and a possible technique is suggested. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5817,2002,3,4,Development of a new gas absorption chiller heater - advanced utilization of waste heat from gas-driven co-generation systems for air-conditioning,Growing concern about global warming has directed much attention towards natural gas-driven co-generation systems (CGS). For wider use of CGS in Japan| innovative technologies to utilize the waste heat of CGS more efficiently for the air-conditioning of office buildings have been long required. Tokyo Gas has developed a high-performance gas absorption chiller heater with auxiliary waste heat recovers. This paper presents the results of the development| including a numerical cycle simulation and experiments for heating and cooling. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 5856,2002,3,4,Development of a two-stage metal hydride system as topping cycle in cascading sorption systems for cold generation,Thermally driven sorption heat pumps compete to be an alternative to mechanically driven vapor compression heat pumps. They do not use CFC refrigerants and therefore have no ozone depletion potential and only a negligible global warming potential. However| their performance lacks behind| even if in the case of compression devices the efficiency of electricity generation is taken into account. The currently available sorption devices have a coefficient of performance (COP) for cooling of about 0.75 for single-effect systems and of 1.2 for double-effect systems. Since the temperatures and pressures under which sorption systems are operated differ widely| it has been suggested to combine sorption systems operating with different working pairs to form a cascading system| in which a topping cycle is producing cold and heat at a sufficiently high temperature level to be able to drive a bottoming cycle which also produces cold| thus increasing the COP. In this study| a two-stage metal hydride sorption device is investigated| which is used as a topping cycle in a cascading system. The system comprises the three metal hydrides LmNi(4.91)Sn(0.15)| LaNi4.1Al0.52Mn0.38 and Ti0.99Zr0.01V0.43Fe0.09Cr0.05Mn1.5 in two reactors each. It is operated with a driving temperature of 310 degreesC| releasing heat for driving a bottoming cycle at a temperature of 125 degreesC and producing cold at a temperature of 2 degreesC. With a half-cycle time of 15 min and using the reaction enthalpies and the exchanged amount of hydrogen| the heat and cold output of the system can be determined. The total cold production is 1.8 kW and the heat generation is around 1.5 kW. The COP is in the range of 0.9 and the coefficient of heat amplification around 0.75. If a double-effect lithium bromide-water system with the above-mentioned COP is used as the bottoming cycle of the cascading system an overall COP of 1.8-2 is expected. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5750,2002,2,3,Differences in the biological carbon pump at three subtropical ocean sites,[1] We report primary production of organic matter and organic carbon removal from three subtropical open ocean time-series stations| two located in the Atlantic and one in the Pacific| to quantify the biological components of the oceanic carbon pump. We find that within subtropical gyres| export production varies considerably despite similar phytoplankton biomass and productivity. We provide evidence that the removal of organic carbon is linked to differences in nutrient input into the mixed layer| both from eddy induced mixing and dinitrogen fixation. These findings contribute to our knowledge of the spatial heterogeneity of the subtropical oceans| which make up more than 50% of all ocean area and are thought to spread in the course of CO2- induced global warming. 2854,2002,2,4,Distributional change and conservation on the Andean flank: a palaeoecological perspective,Aim To review the insights that palaeoecology can offer on the threat posed to Andean communities by global climate change. Location The geographical focus is the eastern flank of the tropical Andes| with particular reference to Peru. Method The article presents a synthetic review of the problem. Results Species-rich communities of the eastern Andean flank are threatened both by development and climate change. If| as predicted| the cloudbase and frost line lifts 600 in elevation this century| there will be a substantial loss of cloud forest habitat. Palaeoecology provides insights on the location and nature of past ecotones| the continuity of niche availability| and estimates for rates and modes of migration. With further warming and drying of lower montane regions| upslope migration of species will be individualistic: a new equilibrium with the altered climate is unlikely to be attained. The zone of agriculture will move upslope faster than the migrating trees and so landscape conversion will negate the ability of some species to respond to the new conditions. Conservation of the lower reaches of modern cloud forest is advocated as a means to limit this foreseeable extinction event. Main Conclusions Climate change will induce changes in plant and animal communities. Human disturbance will invade climatically marginal agricultural lands at the pace of climate change. Rapid migratory response such as that witnessed at the onset of the Holocene may not be evident as climates warm| because Holocene climatic stability has reduced outlying upslope populations that may have served as expansion nuclei. Conservation must aim to maintain plant and animal niches| rather than particular communities of species. 5756,2002,3,3,Documenting no-till and conventional till practices using Landsat ETM plus imagery and logistic regression,The ability of agricultural lands to sequester carbon from the atmosphere and help mitigate global warming has the potential to add value to farmland through the development of carbon-credit trading. Crucial to the creation of a market-based carbon credit trading system is the monitoring and verification of agricultural practices that promote carbon storage. Using remotely sensed images for this purpose could prove more efficient and cost-effective than traditional land-based methods. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) imagery and logistic regression had >95% accuracy in verifying no-till fallow fields. Further research is needed to investigate the potential for this low-cost technology to assist in the monitoring and verification of practices that sequester carbon. Development of an accurate| low-cost| efficient means of monitoring and verifying carbon sequestering practices wilt further the development of cropland carbon credits| thus helping to mitigate global warming| and will add value to U.S. farmland.
5758,2002,4,4,Dramatic change in local climate patterns in the Amboseli basin| Kenya,The Amboseli basin| a semi-arid| open savannah area of southern Kenya| has experienced extensive changes in habitat since the early 1960's. The present report documents patterns of air temperature and rainfall in Amboseli for the 25-year period beginning 1976. Daily temperatures increased dramatically throughout this time period| at a rate almost an order of magnitude greater than that attributed to global warming. Mean daily maximum temperature increased more than did daily minimum (0.275 vs. 0.071degreesC per annum). Although increases in mean daily maxima were documented for all months of the year| they were greatest during the hottest months| February and March. Annual rainfall varied more than four-fold (x = 346.5 mm| SD = 120.0| range 132.0-553.4 mm)| yet did not exhibit any directional or other regular pattern of variability among years over this same 25-year period. Empirical as well as theoretical investigation of relations between such changes in climatic conditions and habitat characteristics are needed at local and regional as well as global scales. 5741,2002,3,4,Dry etching of SiO2 thin films with perfluoropropenoxide-O-2 and perfluoropropene-O-2 plasmas,In this work. the plasma etching characteristics of SiO2 thin films have been investigated using RF low discharges fed with C3F6O and C3F6 mixted with oxygen. The results have been compared with performances obtained with CF4-CHF3 gases. The research was aimed at studying the utilization of new fluorocarbons in SiO2 plasma etching with a lock impact on global warming. The following features have been investigated: SiO2 etch rate. SiO2/Si selectivity. contamination of silicon surfaces exposed to the plasma| and greenhouse gas emission. 5880,2002,2,4,Dung beetle diversity in South Africa: influential factors| conservation status| data inadequacies and survey design,Dung beetles are useful as indicators in conservation and global warming studies owing to their specialized regional and local distribution patterns. However| existing South African data are inadequate for indication at the necessary degree of spatial resolution. To improve the database| Survey methods need to Lie designed according to the spatial and temporal factors that influence dung beetle diversity. Across four major climatic regions| there are seven principal species distribution centres for dung beetles in which activity is influenced primarily by difference| in rainfall seasonality and temperature| Across these regions| generic endemism is largely concentrated around the coastline and in montane areas. The conservation status of endemic genera is discussed. At a local scale| spatial diversity is influenced primarily by soil| vegetation and dung type. Maximum local diversity of dung beetles is observed after rainfall and decreases as surface conditions become warmer and drier. After workshop discussions| a coarse-grained| asymmetrical gradsect survey grid has been designed according to vegetative| climatic and land-usage gradients across South Africa. It is suggested that each survey point across these regional gradients should comprise a quarter-degree square in which local ecological gradients should be surveyed for invertebrates| Baited pitfall trapping is an easy method to provide quantitative data for dung beetles across such environmental gradients. Lining up each catch on a tray provides a relatively quick way to compare the specimens| identify the species present| and provide a quantitative assessment of species abundance. Data collection may be conducted on one or more occasion.| to accommodate seasonal and daily variation in species occurrence. This exercise could identify localities suitable for ecotourism reserves representative of the variation in ecotypes across the country| particularly| in coastal| natural grass and wooded regions| where many invertebrate taxa are endangered by habitat fragmentation including some rare dung beetle species. 5763,2002,3,4,Dynamic current-zero behaviour of wall-stabilised arc in different arc-quenching media,SF6 gas is the medium currently used to quench the arc in gas circuit breakers (GCBs) and gas insulated switchgear (GIS). It has become increasingly necessary to look at alternatives to SF6 for the following reasons: (i) high cost| (ii) sensitivity to particle contamination| (iii) concerns regarding global warming and hence the possibility of imposed rules for decreased SF6 production. From a practical standpoint| the complete elimination of SF6 as an arc-extinguishing medium is improbable. On the other hand| a reduction in the amount of SF6 and the inclusion of a buffer gas is worthy of consideration. In order to determine the suitability of a buffer gas| it is necessary to understand the buffer gases' fundamental plasma properties. A comparative prediction of the thermal breakdown strengths of the following gases: SF6| N-2| O-2| air| CO2| H-2| He and N-2-PTFE after current-zero is presented. The thermophysical properties of a N-2-PTFE mixture are also calculated. A one-dimensional wall-stabilised arc model is solved numerically to determine the thermal breakdown strength of the aforementioned buffer gases in the presence of a uniform electric field intensity having a certain rate of rise. Calculations are done for two typical arc radii: 2.5 and 1.5 mm. Predictions confirm the suitability of He| CO2| N-2 and air as a buffer gas to SF6 and helium is found to be the best buffer choice. 2921,2002,5,4,Dynamics of Pleistocene population extinctions in Beringian brown bears,The climatic and environmental changes associated with the last glaciation (90|000 to 10|000 years before the present; 90 to 10 ka B.P.) are an important example of the effects of global climate change on biological diversity. These effects were particularly marked in Beringia (northeastern Siberia| northwestern North America| and the exposed Bering Strait) during the late Pleistocene. To investigate the evolutionary impact of these events| we studied genetic change in the brown bear| Ursus arctos| in eastern Beringia over the past 60|000 years using DNA preserved in permafrost remains. A marked degree of genetic structure is observed in populations throughout this period despite local extinctions| reinvasions| and potential interspecies competition with the short-faced bear| Arctodus simus. The major phylogeographic changes occurred 35 to 21 ka B.P.| before the glacial maximum| and little change is observed after this time. Late Pleistocene histories of mammalian taxa may be more complex than those that might be inferred from the fossil record or contemporary DNA sequences atone. 5840,2002,2,4,Earlier spring snowmelt in northern Alaska as an indicator of climate change,[1] Predictions of global circulation models (GCMs) that account for increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere show that warming in the Arctic will be amplified in response to the melting of sea ice and snow cover. There is now conclusive evidence that much of the Arctic has warmed in recent decades. Northern Alaska is one region where significant warming has occurred| especially during winter and spring. We investigate how the changing climate of northern Alaska has influenced the annual cycle of snow cover there and in turn| how changes in snow cover perturb the region's surface radiation budget and temperature regime. The focus is on Barrow| Alaska| for which comprehensive data sets exist. A review of earlier studies that documented a trend toward an earlier disappearance of snow in spring is given. Detection and monitoring activities at Barrow are described| and records of snow disappearance from other sites in the Alaskan Arctic are compared. Correlated variations and trends in the date of final snowmelt (melt date) are found by examining several independent time series. Since the mid-1960s the melt date in northern Alaska has advanced by 8 days. The advance appears to be a consequence of decreased snowfall in winter| followed by warmer spring conditions. These changes in snowfall and temperature are attributed to variations in regional circulation patterns. In recent decades| there has been a higher frequency of northerly airflow during winter that tends to diminish snowfall over northern Alaska. During spring| however| intrusions of warm moist air from the North Pacific have become more common| and these tend to accelerate the ablation of snow on the North Slope of Alaska. One result of an earlier melt date is an increase in the net surface radiation budget. At Barrow| net radiative forcing can exceed 150 W m(-2) on a daily basis immediately following the last day of snowmelt| and as a result of an 8-day advance in this event| we estimate an increase of similar to2 W m(-2) on an annual basis. Our results are in general agreement with earlier analyses suggesting that reductions in snow cover over a large portion of the Arctic on an annual basis have contributed to a warming of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In addition| the terrestrial ecosystems of the region are very sensitive to snow cover variations. There is growing concern that these perturbations are anthropogenically forced and adapting to these environmental changes will have significant social and economic consequences. While observed decreases in NH snow cover are in broad agreement with GCM simulations| our analyses suggest that internal (or natural) shifts in circulation patterns underlie the observed variations. Continued monitoring and further study is needed to determine whether the earlier disappearance of snow cover in spring in northern Alaska is an indicator of greenhouse-forced global warming or is a manifestation of a more natural| long-term cycle of climate change. 5682,2002,5,4,Earth's biggest 'whodunnit': unravelling the clues in the case of the end-Permian mass extinction,The mass extinction that occurred at the end of the Permian period| 250 million years ago| was the most devastating loss of life that Earth has ever experienced. It is estimated that ca. 96% of marine species were wiped out and land plants| reptiles| amphibians and insects also suffered. The causes of this catastrophic event are currently a topic of intense debate. The geological record points to significant environmental disturbances| for example| global warming and stagnation of ocean water. A key issue is whether the Earth's feedback mechanisms can become unstable on their own| or whether some forcing is required to precipitate a catastrophe of this magnitude. A prime suspect for pushing Earth's systems into a critical condition is massive end-Permian Siberian volcanism| which would have pumped large quantities of carbon dioxide and toxic gases into the atmosphere. Recently| it has been postulated that Earth was also the victim of a bolide impact at this time. If further research substantiates this claim| it raises some intriguing questions. The Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinction| 65 million years ago| was contemporaneous with both an impact and massive volcanism. Are both types of calamity necessary to drive Earth to the brink of faunal cataclysm? We do not presently have enough pieces of the jigsaw to solve the mystery of the end-Permian extinction| but the forensic work continues. 5927,2002,3,3,Economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions,Recent empirical research has examined the relationship between certain indicators of environmental degradation and income| concluding that in some cases an inverted U-shaped relationship| which has been called an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)| exists between these variables. Unfortunately| this inverted U-shaped relationship does not hold for greenhouse gas emissions| One explanation of the absence of EKC-like behavior in greenhouse gas emissions is that greenhouse gases are special pollutants that create global| not local| disutility. But the international nature of global warming is not the only reason that prevents de-linking greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth. The intergenerational nature of the negative impact of greenhouse gas emissions may have also been an important factor preventing the implementation of greenhouse gas abatement measures in the past. In this paper we explore the effect that the presence of intergenerational spillovers has on the emissions-income relationship. We use a numerically calibrated overlapping generations model of climate-economy interactions| We conclude that: (1) the intertemporal responsibility of the regulatory agency| (2) the institutional capacity to make intergenerational transfers and (3) the presence of intergenerationally tagged impact of emissions constitute important determinants of the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5813,2002,2,4,Economic impacts of global warming - A study of the fishing industry in North Norway,Several studies have been carried out on the possible physical and biological effects of global warming in the Barents Sea area. Based on these studies this paper discusses the effects global warming may have on the Barents Sea fisheries and the implications for the North Norwegian economy. The first has been Studied using the multispecies| multifleet model ECONMULT| and the latter by applying an Input-Output model. A range of possible environmental scenarios based on the physical and biological studies of the effects of global warming has been examined. Both positive and negative biological growth effects have been considered| changing the current growth rates by +/-25%. A more narrow range of management regimes has been applied| reflecting the current management rules and fishery policy in the region. The paper analyses the potential of global warming for changing the catches| profitability| employment impacts and income generation by the Barents Sea fisheries. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5790,2002,2,2,Effect of global warming on snow ablation pattern in the Himalaya,The Himalaya has a large concentration of glaciers and permanent snowfields. During winter| most of the high-altitude regions experience snowfall| and snow cover plays an important role in the ecology of the region. Melting from seasonal snow cover during summer forms an important source of many rivers originating in the Higher Himalaya. Therefore| understanding of snow accumulation and ablation is important for utilization of the Himalayan water resource. Snowpack ablation is highly sensitive to climatic variations. Increase in atmospheric temperature can enhance energy exchange between the atmosphere and snowpack. This can increase snow-melting. Investigations suggest that climate of the earth has constantly changed in the course of time|during the past ten million years or so. During this time| the earth has experienced alternate cycles of warm and cold periods. The difference in global mean temperature between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present warm period is about 5 deg C.However| this slow rate of climate change probably changed in the 20th century due to rapid industrialization. Large emissions of CO2| other trace gases and aerosols have changed the composition of the atmosphere( This is changing the global radiation budget of the earth-atmosphere system. Investigations carried out by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have concluded that the earth's average temperature has increased by 0.6 0.2 deg C in the 20th century. 5854,2002,2,3,Effect of global warming on the length-of-day,[1] The anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the Earth atmosphere will probably induce important modifications of the global circulation in the atmosphere and ocean. Due to the angular momentum conservation of the Earth-atmosphere-ocean system| variation of the length-of-day (LOD) can be expected. By using the outputs of the models participating to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-2)| we reach the following conclusions: (1) the models globally agree to an increase of the LOD of the order of 1 m mus/year| (2) the effect is mostly associated with an increase of the mean zonal wind| of which about one third is compensated by a change in mass repartition. 2900,2002,4,4,Effect of horizontal grid resolution on the near-equilibrium solution of a global ocean-sea ice model,[1] We compare the near-equilibrium solution of a global ocean/sea ice model at a horizontal grid resolution of 1degrees x 1degrees to near-equilibrium solutions obtained in two configurations at 4degrees (longitude) x 2degrees (latitude) resolution. All simulations use realistic| smoothed topography and monthly averaged climatological forcings. Our comparison of the results emphasizes large-scale features relevant to global climate change. Since neither the 1degrees x 1degrees simulation nor the 4degrees x 2degrees simulations resolves ocean eddies| our results do not address the possible importance of resolving eddies in ocean-climate simulations. There are significant differences between the 1degrees x 1degrees and 4degrees x 2degrees simulations| most notably in the Arctic Ocean. However| the large-scale features of the model solutions are very similar at the two resolutions and in many cases are more sensitive to a large difference in horizontal viscosity than to the difference in resolution. This suggests that other approaches to improving the solution of ocean-climate models will be more effective than increases in horizontal resolution outside the eddy-resolving regime. 5683,2002,3,4,Effect of N2O to C4F8/O-2 on global warming during silicon nitride plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) chamber cleaning using a remote inductively coupled plasma source,For the silicon nitride plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) chamber cleaning| a remote inductively coupled plasma (ICP) source was used with C4F8/O-2/N2O and the effects of N2O on the silicon nitride cleaning rates and global warming were investigated. By adding 5% of N2O to C4F8/O-2| the cleaning rate comparable to that of optimized Ar/NF3 could be obtained. At the exhaust line| CF4| C4F8| NF3| etc. were detected and the significant decrease of million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) observed by the addition of N2O to C4F8/O-2 was due to the decrease of emitted CF4. The MMTCE for the optimized C4F8/O-2/N2O was also similar to that for Ar/NF3 at the highest cleaning condition. 5767,2002,4,3,Effect of oceanic uptake on atmospheric lifetimes of selected trace gases,We have calculated from a 2degrees x 2degrees grid of oceanic properties the contribution of oceanic loss to the overall lifetimes of a number of anthropogenic and naturally produced trace gases involved in global warming and stratospheric ozone depletion. The model| originally developed for atmospheric methyl bromide| can be used for any well-mixed trace gas where the seawater degradation rate constants and solubilities are known. Of the gases tested| it is clear that known oceanic chemical degradation processes alone are not significant sinks for most HFCs and HCFCs. Chemical degradation in the oceans is a substantial sink for COS (28%) and COCl2 (8%) and a minor sink for CH3Cl (<2%) and CH3I (2.5%)| and it should be considered when determining atmospheric lifetimes and sink strengths for these gases. Biological degradation processes are likely to increase the oceanic uptake rates of many gases. 5883,2002,3,4,Effect of solid reactant conditions on adsorption of halon decomposition gases,Carbon halides| especially halons (bromofluorocarbons)| are compounds known to deplete the ozone layer and contribute to global warming. Appropriate treatments to decompose halon waste is important to protect the environment. A dry process to decompose halon has been developed. Solid alkaline carbonate and hydrate obtained from dolomite were prepared for the reactants to decompose halon and to react with the fluorine and bromine produced by the halon decomposition. Twelve kinds of reactants were obtained by changing the burning temperature and burning time. The amount of the decomposed halon and the conversion were correlated with the pore distributions in the reactants. The distributions of F and Br differed depending on the preparation of the reactants. The difference would be attributed to the reactivity and the diffusion rate of the gases produced by the decomposing halon. 2844,2002,2,3,Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on plant growth and herbivore defensive chemistry,Concentration of atmospheric CO2 and temperature have both been rising for the last three decades. In this century| the temperature has been predicted to rise by 2-5degreesC and the CO2 concentration to double. These changes may affect the primary and secondary metabolism of plants and thus have implications for other trophic levels. However| the biotic interactions in changing climate conditions are poorly known. In this study| two questions were addressed: W How will climate change affect growth and the amounts of secondary compounds in flexible plant species? and 60 How will this affect herbivores living on this species. Four clones of the dark-leaved willow (Salix myrsinifolia (Salisb.)) seedlings were grown in closed-top chambers with two controlled factors: concentration of atmospheric CO2 and temperature (T). There were four combinations of these factors| each combination replicated four times (total of 16 chambers): (i) Control CO2 (350 ppm) and control T| (ii) Elevated CO2 (700 ppm) and control T| (iii) Control CO2 and elevated T (2degreesC)| and (iv) Elevated CO2 and elevated T. Stem growth and aerial biomass of the plants were determined; and the leaf phenolics| nitrogen and water concentrations were analysed. In addition the growth rate of larvae and feeding preference of adults of a specialist herbivore| the chrysomelid beetle Phratora vitellinae (L.)| on the treated willow leaves were measured. Elevated temperature and CO2 concentration increased the stem biomass and elevated CO2 increased leaf biomass and total aerial biomass of the willows. Patterns of biomass allocation were different in different temperature treatments. At elevated temperature there was less branch and leaf material in relation to stems than at the control temperature. Moreover| patterns of biomass allocation differed among clones. CO2 enhancement increased the specific leaf weight (SLW) and reduced both water and nitrogen content of the leaves| however| leaf area was unaffected by the treatments. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and T enhancement reduced the concentrations of several phenolic compounds in the leaves. Phenolic compounds| nutrients| and water in the leaves might be diluted partly due to increased carbon allocation to different structures (e.g. thickening of cell wall and increase of trichomes| etc.). In some cases plant clones showed specific responses to treatments. The CO2 enhancement reduced the relative growth rate (RGR) of the beetle larvae| and in contrast| temperature elevation increased it. Adult beetles did not clearly discriminate between willow leaves grown in different T and CO2 environments| but tended to eat more leaf material from chambers with doubled CO2 concentration. At elevated CO2 adult beetles may need to eat more leaf material in order to reproduce| which may in turn prolong the life cycles| increasing the risk of being eaten and possibly affecting ability to overwinter successfully. Overall| climate change may significantly modify the dynamic interaction between willow and beetle populations. 5923,2002,2,4,Effects of increased temperatures simulating climate change on terrestrial invertebrates on Ross Island| Antarctica,Passive cloches were deployed for 27 months (three austral summers) at Cape Bird| Ross Island| Antarctica (77degrees13'S| 166degrees26'E) to investigate the response of soil invertebrates to increased temperatures. Soil surface temperatures in cloches were significantly higher than in lidless control plots or unmanipulated sites. Soil surfaces in cloche plots exceeded 0 C and 8 C (the approximate threshold for growth and development in several invertebrate species) for longer than in control plots. No consistent changes in populations of Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni (Collembola)| Stereotydeus mollis (Acari) Nanorchestes antarcticus (Acari) or observed in the cloche plots after 3 growing seasons at higher temperatures. Abundance of S. mollis was strongly related to algal biomass| but abundances of other species were not clearly related to the environmental characteristics of manipulation plots. Although low temperatures may have a role as a limiting factor on a geographical scale| local populations of invertebrates are probably influenced more by the availability of liquid water; and invertebrate responses could be very slow owing to short growing seasons and long life cycles in continental Antarctica. 2861,2002,5,4,Effects of Oligo-Miocene global climate changes on mammalian species richness in the northwestern quarter of the USA,We derived species richness curves using three different methods for mammal species recorded in fossil deposits between 30 million and 9 million years old (late Oligocene through late Miocene) for three geographic regions in the USA: the Northwest| northern Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains. The data were used to examine the relationship between global climate change and species richness at the regional scale. Our goal was to test the hypothesis that geographic scaling issues account for the lack of correlation that has been observed between continental species richness and the oxygen-isotope curve. The results of all three methods used in this study suggest that species richness in the three regions analysed did not change in response to the global temperature signal| supporting the inferences drawn from continental-scale analyses. The most prominent signal is a peak in species richness in the Rocky Mountain region about 15 million years ago| possibly due to increased beta diversity within the mountains| although many of these species were shared between all three biogeographic provinces. This peak coincides with the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum| but it appears unlikely that global temperature change was the direct cause because no response in species richness characterized the even greater Late Oligocene Warming. The Mid-Miocene richness peak also closely follows the onset of major tectonic events in the Rocky Mountain region| which may have led to increased within-province endemism through a combination of physiographic and related climatic effects not recorded in the global temperature signal| a hypothesis that deserves detailed testing. 5794,2002,2,4,Effects of temperature and oxygen availability on greenhouse gas and nutrient dynamics in sediment of a eutrophic mid-boreal lake,The effects of oxygen conditions and temperature on dynamics of greenhouse gases (CH4| CO2| N2O) and nutrients (NH4+| NO2-+NO3-|-| tot-P) were studied in sediment of hyper-eutrophic Lake Kevaton| Finland. Undisturbed sediment cores were incubated at 6| 11| 16| and 23 degreesC in a laboratory microcosm using a continuous water flow technique with an oxic or anoxic water flow. The production of CO2 increased with increasing temperature in both oxic (Q(10) 3.2 +/- 0.6) and anoxic (Q(10) 2.3 +/- 0.4) flows. The release of CH4 increased with temperature in anoxic conditions (Q(10) 2.3 +/- 0.2)| but was negligible with the oxic flow at all temperatures. The release of NH4+ increased with temperature with the oxic and anoxic flows (Q(10) 2.4 +/- 0.1). There was a net production of NO2-| NO3- and N2O with the oxic flow at temperatures below 16 degreesC. The release of phosphorus was greater from the anoxic sediments and increased with temperature with both the anoxic (Q(10) 2.9 +/- 0.5) and oxic (Q(10) 1.9 +/- 0.1) flows. It is probable that the temperature of boreal lakes and the associated oxygen deficiency will increase as the climate becomes warmer. Our experiments showed that this change would increase the global warming potential of greenhouse gases released from sediments of eutrophic lakes predominately attributable to the increase in the CH4 production. Furthermore| warming would also accelerate the eutrophication of lakes by increasing release of phosphorus and mineral nitrogen from sediments| which further enhance CH4 production in sediments. 5919,2002,4,3,Electrochemical or photocatalytic reduction of carbon dioxide released to the environment and atomic spectrometry for environmental sample analysis,CO2 causes the greenhouse effect and consequent natural disruption of the environment. Therefore| it| needs to develop technologies for the sequestration and reduction of CO2. On the other hand| some diseases with the chronic intake of metals at low concentration will possibly become a problem in the future| which means that it is required to develop accurate analytical methods for metals at even lower concentration. Based on these circumstances| the electrochemical or photocatalytic reduction of CO2. released to the environment| and atomic spectrometry for environmental samples were investigated. First| in the electrochemical reduction of CO2 in methanol| the reduction products could be controlled| by the selections of supporting electrolytes and cathode materials. Furthermore| the photocatalytic CO2 reduction reaction could proceed in liquid and supercritical CO2 media. Next| a sensitive and accurate analytical method of specific trace metals| such as cobalt| silver and rhodium| in environmental samples by electrothermal atomization atomic absorption spectrometry with a metal tube atomizer was developed. Moreover| a direct determination method of elemental content in individual dried biological cells and particulates by ICP-AES or ICP-MS was investigated. These determination methods may play a significant role in various fields| such as environmental science| pharmacy and biochemistry. 5866,2002,3,3,Emission of carbon dioxide from soil,Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important greenhouse gas accounting for 60% of the total greenhouse effect. Soil is a major source for atmospheric CO2. In the event of growing threats of global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions| reducing CO2 emission by sequestering C in the soil is of prime importance. Soil management practices like increasing soil organic carbon content| reduced tillage| manuring| residue incorporation| improving soil biodiversity| micro-aggregation and mulching can play an important role in sequestering C in soil. 5835,2002,3,2,Emissions and environmental impacts from air-conditioning and refrigeration systems,The impacts of air conditioning and refrigeration systems on stratospheric ozone are primarily linked to release of ozone-depleting refrigerants. Their contributions to global warming stem both from release of refrigerants and from emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) for associated energy use. Because the energy-related component has a significantly higher warming impact| phaseout of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants with less efficient options will increase net GHG emissions. The same conclusion applies for perfluorocarbon (PFCs)| though they are less commonly used as refrigerants. Integrated assessment of ozone depletion| global warming| and atmospheric lifetime provides essential indications in the absence of ideal refrigerants| namely those free of these problems as well as safety| stability| compatibility| cost| and similar burdens. This study examines the trend in refrigerant losses from chiller use. It documents both substantial progress in release reductions and the technical innovations to achieve them. It contrasts the impacts of current refrigerants with alternatives and with the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) they replaced. The study examines the sensitivity of efficiency to charge loss. It also summarizes thermodynamic and environmental comparisons of options to show that phaseout decisions based on chemical composition alone| without regard to attributes of individual substances| can result in greater environmental harm than benefit. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 5684,2002,3,4,Emissions trading: Seeking a solution to global warming,The article reports on the results of an analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reporting practices at top companies in "Chemical Week's" 2009 Billion Dollar Club which reveal that a wide variety of reporting practices and varying results. It notes that many companies do not report GHG emissions| which include Dow Chemical and DuPont. Data used in the analysis were from reports to the Carbon Disclosure Project| a voluntary GHG reporting initiative. It found that emissions vary across industry sectors on a per-sales basis.
5944,2002,2,4,Endemism| rarity and vulnerability of marine species along a temperate coastline,The marine decapod| echinoderm and mollusc fauna from the State of Victoria| Australia| was systematically assessed for species that are potentially vulnerable to extinction. Species were identified that are short-range endemics| restricted to isolated populations| restricted to vulnerable habitats| or vulnerable to a rise in sea temperature from global warming. Of the 1650 species assessed| 3.7% were potentially endemic to Victoria| although many of these were known from few records and their described distribution may reflect collection or taxonomic artefacts. More species were restricted to vulnerable habitats: 0.7% to seagrass beds; 3% to embayments; 3.5% to the trawled area of continental shelf off east Gippsland; and 6% to the intertidal/shallow subtidal zone (03 m). Up to 14% of species are confined to the cool temperate waters of south-eastern Australia and could become locally extinct within Victoria from a sea temperature rise of 1-2degreesC. The potential for biodiversity loss from Victorian marine waters is discussed. 5874,2002,3,4,Energy| industry and nitrogen: Strategies for decreasing reactive nitrogen emissions,Nitrogen oxides are released during atmospheric combustion of fossil fuels and biomass| and during the production of certain chemicals and products. They can react with natural or man-made volatile organic compounds to produce smog| or else can be further oxidized to produce particulate haze| or acid rain that can eutrophy land and water. The reactive nitrogen that begins in the energy sector thus cascades through the atmosphere| the hydrosphere and soils before being eventually partially denitrifed to the global warming and stratospheric ozone-depleting gas nitrous oxide or molecular nitrogen. This paper will suggest how an economic analysis of the nitrogen cycle can identify the most cost-effective places to intervene. Nitrogen oxides released during fossil-fuel combustion in vehicles| power plants and heating boilers can either be controlled by add-on emission control technology| or can be eliminated by many of the same technical options that lead to carbon dioxide reduction. These integrated strategies also address sustainability| economic development and national security issues. Similarly in industrial production| it is more effective to focus on redesigning industrial processes rather than on nitrogen oxide pollution elimination from the current system. This paper will suggest which strategies might be utilized to address multiple benefits rather than focusing on single pollutants.
5735,2002,2,4,ENSO and cholera: A nonstationary link related to climate change?,We present here quantitative evidence for an increased role of interannual climate variability on the temporal dynamics of an infectious disease. The evidence is based on time-series analyses of the relationship between El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera prevalence in Bangladesh (formerly Bengal) during two different time periods. A strong and consistent signature of ENSO is apparent in the last two decades (1980-2001)| while it is weaker and eventually uncorrelated during the first parts of the last century (1893-1920 and 1920-1940| respectively). Concomitant with these changes| the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) undergoes shifts in its frequency spectrum. These changes include an intensification of the approximately 4-yr cycle during the recent interval as a response to the well documented Pacific basin regime shift of 1976. This change in remote ENSO modulation alone can only partially serve to substantiate the differences observed in cholera. Regional or basin-wide changes possibly linked to global warming must be invoked that seem to facilitate ENSO transmission. For the recent cholera series and during specific time intervals corresponding to local maxima in ENSO| this climate phenomenon accounts for over 70% of disease variance. This strong association is discontinuous in time and can only be captured with a technique designed to isolate transient couplings. 5842,2002,2,4,Environmental refugees: a growing phenomenon of the 21st century,There is a new phenomenon in the global arena: environmental refugees. These are people who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of drought| soil erosion| desertification| deforestation and other environmental problems| together with the associated problems of population pressures and profound poverty. In their desperation| these people feel they have no alternative but to seek sanctuary elsewhere| however hazardous the attempt. Not all of them have Red their countries| many being internally displaced. But all have abandoned their homelands on a semi-permanent if not permanent basis| with little hope of a foreseeable return. In 1995| environmental refugees totalled at least 25 million people| compared with 27 million traditional refugees (people fleeing political oppression| religious persecution and ethnic troubles). The total number of environmental refugees could well double by the year 2010| and increase steadily for a good while thereafter as growing numbers of impoverished people press ever harder on overloaded environments. When global warming takes hold| there could be as many as 200 million people overtaken by sea-level rise and coastal flooding| by disruptions of monsoon systems and other rainfall regimes| and by droughts of unprecedented severity and duration. 2883,2002,2,4,Estimated biomass and productivity of natural vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau,We developed a methodology for linking together data from forest and grassland inventories and ecological research sites| and provided a comprehensive report about live biomass and net primary productivity (NPP) on the Tibetan Plateau| the "Third Pole" of the earth where little information about plant biomass and production had been available outside China. Results were as follows. (1) The total live biomass of the natural vegetation in the Xizang (Tibet) Autonomous Region and Qinghai Province was estimated its 2|17 Gg dry mass| of which 72.9% was stored in forests where spruce-fir accounted for 65.1% (2) The total annual NPP of the natural vegetation in these two administrative regions| was estimated as 0.57 Gg dry mass. of which grasslands and forests accounted for 69.5% and 18.1%| respectively. (3) The alpine spruce-fir forests of the Tibetan Plateau had the highest maximum live biomass of the spruce-fir forests globally. with values up to 500-1600 Mg DM/ha (including both aboveground and belowground biomass)| (4) The QZNPP model generally predicted NPP well for most of the biomes on the plateau| and simulated the various Chinese vegetation divisions. Model results showed a positive reinforcing effect of monsoon climate in China where the warmest season coincides with the wettest season. (5) The live biomass map for 117 counties of Xizang (Tibet) and Qinghai and the Potential NPP map for the whole plateau both showed the same decreasing trend from Southeast to northwest. 2891,2002,2,3,Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change,Aim Greenhouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO(2) -doubled climatic forcing. Location Global. Methods Migration distances were calculated between grid cells of future biome type x and nearest same-biome-type cells in the current climate. In 'base-case' calculations| we assumed that 2 x CO(2) climate forcing would occur in 100 years| we used ten biome types and we measured migration distances as straight-line distances ignoring water barriers and human development. In sensitivity analyses| we investigated different time periods of 2 x CO(2) climate forcing| more narrowly defined biomes and barriers because of water bodies and human development. Results In the base-case calculations| average migration rates varied significantly according to the GVM used (BIOME3 vs. MAPSS)| the age of the GCM (older- vs. newer-generation GCMs)| and whether or not GCMs included sulphate cooling or CO(2) fertilization effects. However| high migration rates (greater than or equal to 1000 m year(-1)) were relatively common in all models| consisting on average of 17% grid cells for BIOME3 and 21% for MAPSS. Migration rates were much higher in boreal and temperate biomes than in tropical biomes. Doubling of the time period of 2 x CO(2) forcing reduced these areas of high migration rates to c . 12% of grid cells for both BIOME3 and MAPSS. However| to obtain migration rates in the Boreal biome that were similar in magnitude to those observed for spruce when it followed the retreating North American Glacier| a radical increase in the period of warming was required| from 100 to >1000 years. A reduction in biome area by an order of magnitude increased migration rates by one to three orders of magnitude| depending on the GVM. Large water bodies and human development had regionally important effects in increasing migration rates. Main conclusions In conclusion| evidence from coupled GCMs and GVMs suggests that global warming may require migration rates much faster than those observed during post-glacial times and hence has the potential to reduce biodiversity by selecting for highly mobile and opportunistic species. Several poorly understood factors that are expected to influence the magnitude of any such reduction are discussed| including intrinsic migrational capabilities| barriers to migration| the role of outlier populations in increasing migration rates| the role of climate in setting range limits and variation in species range sizes. 5814,2002,2,4,Estimations of the past groundwater recharge rate from deep borehole temperature data,order to estimate the past groundwater recharge rates from deep borehole temperature data| observed temperature-depth profiles are compared with the profiles calculated from heat conduction-convection equation under the condition of linear increase in surface temperature due to global warming and urbanization in Tokyo metropolitan area. The results show the increase in groundwater recharge rate from the 1890s to 1940s| and it decreased from the 1940s to 1990s. These estimations agree well with the precipitation record in Tokyo during the last 100 years. Therefore| the deep borehole temperature data can be used for estimating not only surface temperature history but also the past groundwater recharge rate in Tokyo area. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5765,2002,2,4,Evaluating genetic resources of forest trees by means of life history traits - a Norwegian example,Additive variation in adaptive traits is a prerequisite for selection and adaptation to future environmental changes| but distribution of adaptive genetic variability between and within populations is poorly known in most forest trees. Owing to this deficiency| life history traits such as geographic range| pollination vector and seed dispersal capability| which significantly affect gene flow and thus the distribution of genetic variability| were used to evaluate the genetic resources in 23 Norwegian native forest tree species. Based on the combination of life history traits the species' genetic resources were classified either as viable| potentially vulnerable or vulnerable| assuming a decrease in within-population variability in this sequence. Twelve widely distributed species with generally effective dispersal of pollen and seeds were considered viable (Pinus sylvestris| Picea abies| Juniperus communis| Betula pubescens| B. pendula| Alnus incana| A. glutinosa| Salix caprea| Populus tremula| Corylus avellana| Sorbus aucuparia| Prunus padus) and have as such no particular conservation needs. Effective seed dispersal of these species| as inferred from post-glacial migration rates| may be partly responsible for their generally early post-glacial appearance| and may| in combination with the wide ranges and relatively large evolutionary potential| indicate that viable species are best able to cope with climatic change. Among species with restricted ranges and more limited gene flow eight were considered potentially vulnerable (Quercus petraea| Q. robur| Fraxinus excelsior| Acer platanoides| Taxus baccata| Ilex aquifolium| Fagus sylvatica| Ulmus glabra) and three were considered vulnerable (Tilia cordata| Malus sylvestris| P. avium). Application of different intensities of a multiple population breeding system (MPBS) is considered the most appropriate mode of conserving genetic resources in these species. 2893,2002,3,4,Evaluating sustainable energy strategies for a water utility,Research suggests that political will to deliver improvements in the quality of surface water in the UK and across the EU| alongside measures to place tighter controls on the quality of biosolids applied to agricultural land| will augment the levels of energy used in sewage and sludge treatment. This coincides with increasing concerns over the use of fossil fuel derived energy sources and their potential to enhance the Earth's greenhouse effect and promote global climate change| creating a serious paradox for those responsible for managing the aquatic environment. However| previous research also suggests that novel technologies and practices could potentially mitigate the problem in hand. This paper describes the development of a model for estimating future energy use and CO2 emissions in the wastewater treatment sector| and outlines the results of different projections using incumbent and novel practices. Indications are that using incumbent approaches could augment CO2 emissions by 15-30% in the medium- to long-term| while loss of the agricultural sludge route and deployment of an incineration strategy could mean increases are of the order of 50-70%. Alternatively| the construction of a greater number of sludge treatment facilities| with greater biogas recovery| could reduce this burden to around -8 to +7% over the same period| while the realisation of the full potential an anaerobic pre-treatment process could lead to reductions of up to 16%. Nevertheless| some of the options will come at a higher cost then incumbents| and the potential for making the business case for these investments is explored. 5718,2002,2,4,Evaluation of limnological responses to recent environmental change and caribou activity in the Riviere George Region| northern Quebec| Canada,The influence of natural terrestrial disturbances on the limnology of northern lakes is little known| yet important for understanding the ecology of these remote ecosystems. The Riviere George Caribou Herd (RGCH) in northern Quebec has undergone a large population increase since the 1950s| which has been accompanied by pronounced impacts (i.e.| degradation of vegetation cover| soil erosion) on terrestrial environments of the Riviere George region. The goal of our study was to evaluate if the increased caribou activity and resulting terrestrial impacts have been accompanied by impacts on adjacent aquatic ecosystems. We studied the recent diatom assemblages (i.e.| about the last two centuries) preserved in six sediment cores taken from lakes located in the most heavily impacted region| and in one core from a lake showing little evidence of recent caribou activity in the catchment basin. Core chronologies based on Pb-210 dating techniques indicated that average mass sedimentation rates in this subarctic region were very low (0.0039 to 0.012 g cm(-2) yr(-1)). Perhaps surprisingly| diatom assemblages from all seven cores showed very little change| indicating remarkably stable limnological conditions throughout the past similar to200 yr. The lack of a signal from caribou activity is most likely due to (1) short-term impacts being too transitory to be registered in the sediment record| and (2) long-term impacts not representing a significant perturbation outside the natural variability of these aquatic ecosystems. In contrast to other arctic regions| the limnological stability of our study sites suggests that recent climatic change impacts have been negligible in this region of northern Quebec| which seems to confirm climate model predictions that northern Quebec and Labrador will remain climatically stable under global warming scenarios. 5710,2002,3,3,Evaluation of the environmental implications to include structural changes in a wastewater treatment plant,The environmental implications of including structural changes in a wastewater treatment plant to decrease effluent concentrations of nitrogen were evaluated in this study. Environmental effects from these structural changes were assessed by using the Life Cycle Assessment theoretical framework. The wastewater treatment plant selected as a reference scenario had an activated sludge configuration. The Ludzack-Ettinger and Oxidation Ditch configurations were selected as modifications of the reference scenario. Results from this study show that the inclusion of nitrogen removal mechanisms in the configuration of the plant reduces the effect of the plant on the eutrophication| but simultaneously increases the effect on the consumption of abiotic resources| global warming| acidification and human toxicity. These general trends| however| vary depending on the configuration selected to remove nitrogen. Taking all the impacts together| the Oxidation Ditch configuration would cause less environmental impact than the Ludzack-Ettinger configuration| given the characteristics of the selected scenarios. (C) 2002 Society of Chemical Industry. 5841,2002,4,4,Evaporative climate changes at Bet Dagan| Israel| 1964-1998,Analysis of evaporation measurements made between 1964 and 1998 at Bet Dagan in Israel's central coastal plain shows a small but statistically significant increase in screened Class A pan evaporation| mainly in the dry| summer half of the year. No changes were found in the total open water evaporation or reference crop evapotranspiraton estimated with Penman's combined heat balance and aerodynamic equation because the decreases found in the radiation balance term were offset by increases in the aerodynamic term. The climatic changes responsible for these opposing trends were| respectively| decreases in global irradiance and increases in water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and wind speed| the latter associated with changes in wind direction. Increases in windspeed were found to be concentrated in afternoon hours of summer and fall months| while those of VPD were in the late afternoon of fall months. Possible reasons for these changes are discussed. Normalized pan evaporation for dry months showed no significant time trend| but a significant increase was found for wet months. These results support the view that the widespread reductions in potential evaporation that have been reported| although not found at Bet Dagan| were caused by global dimming rather than an increase in the rate of atmospheric moisture cycling due to global warming. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5822,2002,2,4,Evidence for a persistent and extensive greening trend in Eurasia inferred from satellite vegetation index data,[1] The northern latitudes have warmed by similar to0.8degreesC since the early 1970s| but not all areas have warmed equally. Eurasia shows an overall warming trend| while North America exhibits warming at a lower rate and even a slight cooling trend during the last 50 years in the eastern United States. We analyzed a recently developed satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data set (July 1981 to December 1999) to assess vegetation response to these temperature changes. An index of persistence of the NDVI trend was used to generate patches of different levels of persistence. The persistence data were analyzed for patch area| patch perimeter| patch number| patch coherence| largest patch size| patch fragmentation| pixel contiguity| pixel clustering| and conditional probability of pixel adjacency. We address two questions: (1) Is there a difference in the spatial pattern of long-term NDVI increase in comparison to short-term increase? and (2) Are there differences in the spatial patterns of patches between Eurasia and North America? The results indicate a persistent and spatially extensive and connected greening trend in Eurasia| relative to North America. The regions showing short-term greening in Eurasia show a scattered pattern of spatially remote small patches. In North America the long-term greening pattern is spatially fragmented| and a mixture of short-and long-term NDVI increase is found| unlike in Eurasia. Therefore we conclude that the greening trend in Eurasia is more persistent and spatially extensive than in North America| which is qualitatively consistent with near-surface air temperature observations. 5878,2002,5,4,Evidence of surface water oligotrophy during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum: Nannofossil assemblage data from Ocean Drilling Program Site 690| Maud Rise| Weddell Sea,[1] Nannoplankton assemblages at Ocean Drilling Program Site 690 (Maud Rise| Weddell Sea) experienced an abrupt and dramatic transformation at the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at similar to55 m.y. The major assemblage shift suggests a change from colder| more productive surface waters to warmer| more oligotrophic conditions. Significant restructuring of assemblages during the later part of the PETM indicates that nannoplankton communities were not stable and that surface water conditions changed| although they remained warm and oligotrophic. Combined with benthic foraminiferal assemblage data| nannoplankton assemblage results suggest increased sequestration of nutrients in shelf environments and starvation of the open ocean. Although the PETM was a short-lived event| it appears to have had long-term effects on nannoplankton| leading to the extinction of Fasciculithus| a dominant Paleocene genus. 5809,2002,4,4,Evidence of the present relative land stability of Venice| Italy| from land| sea| and space observations,[1] The city of Venice is very vulnerable to loss in surface elevation as a result of subsidence and eustacy because of its small elevation above sea level. The alarm of the scientific community related to this persistent problem is increasing because of the forecasts of sea level rise caused by global warming. In order to evaluate the present relative subsidence of Venice| a study has been performed by combining high precision leveling| Satellite Radar Interferometry (SRI) and tide gauge measurements. The analysis of the most recent data points out with an unprecedented detail the present ground stability of the city. 2853,2002,5,4,Evolution of heat transport pathways in the Indonesian Archipelago during last deglaciation,The Indonesian Archipelago provides important heat transport pathways of the Western Pacific Warm Pool between the northern Indian Ocean and western equatorial Pacific Ocean| that exert important impacts on global climate change. This study investigated AMS C-14| delta(18)O| planktonic foraminifer assemblages and sedimentation rates in three piston cores collected in the Indonesian Archipelago. The results indicate that changes in the Indonesian Archipelago heat transport pathways were phase characteristic and in steps during the last deglaciation. In the deglaciation Termination IA| at about 12.5 kaBP| sea level rose rapidly in a short time period| and Makassar and Lombok straits widened suddenly for warm and fresh water from the Pacific to pour into the Java Sea and eastern Indian Ocean. During the Termination IB| about 9.5 kaBP| sea level rose rapidly again| and the South China Sea (SCS) started to connect with the Java Sea. With monsoon actions| a large amount of fresh water from the SCS shelf area flew through the Indonesian Archipelago. 5806,2002,2,4,Evolution of insect-plant relationships: chemical constraints| coadaptation| and concordance of insect/plant traits,Co-adaptations| co-evolution| and co-speciation between herbivores and their host plants have been topics of interest for several decades. Difficulties in deciphering these relationships as well as physiological| biochemical| and ecological adaptations of herbivorous insects themselves are discussed here in relation to biotic and abiotic environmental factors that create temporal as well as spatial mosaics of genetic variation. Hybridization was shown in swallowtail butterflies (Papilio) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) to produce some trait concordance| but mostly independent geographic trait clines (physiological| biochemical| and morphological). Strong and extensive genetic introgression of Liriodendron tulipifera detoxification abilities was documented northward across the hybrid zone| presumably as a result of regional climate warming only during the last 3-4 years. These and other genetic novelties produced by hybridization may be important in speciation processes| and they also emphasize the difficulties identifying appropriate taxonomic classifications for discussing any species concept. Host plant detoxification abilities (as 'key innovations') are shown capable of rapid movement between different polyphagous herbivore species independently of the host plant availability and well beyond the insect species geographical range distribution. Part of the difficulty associated with ecologically categorizing herbivore species and identifying affiliated adaptations for host plant use may be related to independent movement of various 'species-diagnostic' traits. Climate-driven local selection regimes could help generate the dynamic variation observed for co-adapted| co-evolved| or non-adapted genotypes| and may produce the confusing and changing patterns of geographic mosaics seen within and among closely related herbivores. Experimental analyses of several factors that could explain the asymmetrical shapes of trait clines across the hybrid zone for tiger swallowtail butterflies are discussed. 2903,2002,4,4,Evolution of the organization for tropical studies,The Organization for Tropical Studies (OTS)/Organizacion para Estudios Tropicales (OET) has evolved in many ways since its founding in 1963 as a non-profit consortium offering graduate courses and facilitating research in tropical ecology in Costa Rica. By 2002| its international membership included about 65 institutions| including four from Costa Rica. It had developed three Costa Rican field stations (La Selva| Las Cruces| and Palo Verde) with excellent facilities for teaching and research| and it was constructing a new Costa Rican office at the University of Costa Rica. Combinations of internal and external pressures influenced OTS to develop in new directions in the 1980s and 1990s. It became more diversified and more concerned with applied science in its traditional areas of graduate education and research facilitation. The Organization also evolved into new niches: more applied biology| professional education| environmental education and policy| conservation efforts| and an expanded geographic distribution to other Latin American countries. OTS was composed of changing combinations of people (Boards| members| staff) with evolving and competing priorities for limited financial resources. External environmental changes also shaped OTS's evolution. New problems of increased tropical deforestation| the emergence of the biodiversity "crisis" and conservation biology| global climate change| and calls for sustainable development affected OTS constituents and funding priorities of governments and foundations. Both internal and external pressures have in some cases demanded for OTS to improve its relationship with: Costa Rican biologists and their institutions| the Costa Rican government| and Costa Ricans living around the three OTS field stations. 2928,2002,2,4,Evolutionary genetics of mangroves: continental drift to recent climate change,Recent advances in our knowledge of the genetic architecture of mangrove species are reviewed and the consequences of this genetic architecture for species response to environmental change are inferred. The origins of mangrove taxa have been discussed many times| particularly in the context of centers of origin and continental drift. While global patterns of mangrove species diversity have been interpreted in the context of tectonic events and opening and closing of seawater passages| species evolution on a finer scale depends on more recent processes of population extinction and advances in response to spatio-temporal climatic and environmental flux. Understanding the likely effects of global climate change on mangrove distributions requires a focus on these more recent intraspecific evolutionary processes. Many mangrove taxa have wide geographic ranges that have been attributed to efficient propagule dispersal. Such gene flow should provide a genetic cohesiveness among populations. However| as with many wide-ranging marine organisms| we are finding important population genetic structure in widespread mangrove species| suggesting that gene flow is less effective than previously thought. Are these widespread taxa more recent and undergoing speciation? Spatial patterns in genetically adaptive traits indicate that some populations may survive more successfully under changing environmental conditions. However| is the present-day genetic architecture best poised to respond to predictions of climate change? These questions are addressed in the light of our increasing knowledge of genetic diversity in mangrove species. 5851,2002,2,4,Evolutionary speed of species invasions,Successful invasion may depend of the capacity of a species to adjust genetically to a spatially varying environment. This research modeled a species invasion by examining the interaction between a quantitative genetic trait and population density. It assumed: (1) a quantitative genetic trait describes the adaptation of an individual to its local ecological conditions; (2) populations far from the local optimum grow more slowly than those near the optimum; and (3) the evolution of a trait depends on local population density| because differences in local population densities cause asymmetrical gene flow. This genetics-density interaction determined the propagation speed of populations. Numerical simulations showed that populations spread by advancing as two synchronic traveling waves| one for population density and one for trait adaptation. The form of the density wave was a step front that advances homogenizing populations at their carrying capacity; the adaptation wave was a curve with finite slope that homogenizes populations at full adaptation. The largest speed of population expansion| for a dimensionless analysis| corresponded to an almost homogeneous spatial environment when this model approached an ecological description such as the Fisher-Skellam's model. A large genetic response also favored faster speeds. Evolutionary speeds| in a natural scale| showed a wide range of rates that were also slower compared to models that only consider demographics. This evolutionary speed increased with high heritability| strong stabilizing selection| and high intrinsic growth rate. It decreased for steeper environmental gradients. Also indicated was an optimal dispersal rate over which evolutionary speed declined. This is expected because dispersal moves individuals further| but homogenizes populations genetically| making them maladapted. The evolutionary speed was compared to observed data. Furthermore| a moderate increase in the sped of expansion was predicted for ecological changes related to global warming. 2945,2002,2,4,Expected threats of global climate change on mosquito and tick-borne arbovirus infections of human beings,Global warming [+ 0|5 - 0|6degrees C during the second half of the 20 th century] seems a reality although climatologists did not reach a common agreement on its actual origin| and this phenomenon may still increase along the 21 th century [+ 1|5 to 6degrees C]. Epidemiologists are anxious at the eventual effects of the resulting climate change on the evolution of arbovirus infections transmitted to human beings by hematophagous vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks. Analysis of the literature devoted to this problem did not lead to precise conclusions and the mathematical models used seems insufficient for they take into account mainly the climatic factors and not enough the human ones. Examples of dengue| european tick-borne encephalitis and other arbovirus infections are discussed. Peculiar attention is devoted to the eventual effects of climatic changes on the hibernation process in some small mammals and the dining of bird's migrations| involved in enzootic cycles of arboviruses. It is likely| that arbovirus diseases may locally extend| both in latitude and altitude| leading to outbreaks| but regressions may also occur. 5716,2002,2,4,Factors controlling species richness in alpine plant communities: An assessment of the importance of stress and disturbance,This study explores whether the high variability of vascular plant diversity among alpine plant communities can be explained by stress and/or disturbance intensities. Species numbers of 14 alpine plant communities were sampled in the Swiss Alps. To quantify the intensity of 13 stress and 6 disturbance factors potentially controlling plant life in these communities| a survey was conducted by asking numerous specialists in alpine vegetation to assess the importance of the different factors for each community. The estimated values were combined in stress- and disturbance-indices which were compared with diversity according to the Intermediate Stress Hypothesis| the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis| and the Dynamic Equilibrium Model| respectively. Each of these theories explained a part of the variability in the species richness| but only the Dynamic Equilibrium Model provided a complete and consistent explanation. The last model suggests that community species richness within the alpine life zone is generally controlled by stress intensity. Disturbance and competition seem to play a secondary role by fine-tuning diversity in specific communities. As diversity is primarily limited by stress| a moderation of temperature-related stress factors| as a result of global warming| may cause a shift of the equilibrium between stress| disturbance| and competition in alpine ecosystems. 5739,2002,3,4,Feasible suppression technique of methane emission from paddy soil by iron amendment,A revolving furnace slag (RFS)| which is a by-product of the steel industry| and a spent disposable portable body warmer (PBW)| which harnessed the heat of iron oxidation reaction| were used as iron materials. Portions of 4 kg of Coarse and Medium Textured Gley soil were placed into plastic pots (3 L). RFS was added to the pots at the rate of 0 (control)| 10| 20| 40| 100 ton ha(-1)| while PBW was added at 10 ton ha(-1) only. Methane flux from the potted soil with rice plants and Eh were measured during cropping seasons in 1999 and 2000. In the 1999 experiment| the RFS treatments showed lower Eh values compared with the control| especially at the early period of cultivation| although the RFS was applied to maintain the soil oxidative. The rapid decrease in Eh under high application of RFS may be due to the high pH of the RFS (pH (RFS: H2O = 1: 2.5) was 12.2). However| total methane emission during the cultivation period significantly decreased| about 10%| when 10-40 ton ha(-1) of RFS and 10 ton ha(-1) of PBW were applied. The grain yield was significantly increased| about 30%| when 40 or 100 ton ha(-1) of RFS was applied. This was also partly due to the release of inorganic nutrients from RFS and also from soil. The latter| due to effect of the alkaline RFS on soil. In the 2000 experiment| the pots with soils from 1999 were used without further application of iron materials. The influence of high application of RFS on soil Eh disappeared| compared with 1999. Total methane emission significantly decreased| about 35%| at 20 ton ha(-1) of RFS. However| the increase of grain yield caused by RFS in 1999 was diminished| compared with 1999. Production activity of both methane and carbon dioxide at the RFS treatments were decreased| while methane oxidizing activity was increased. The decrease in total methane emission may be attributed to not only inhibition of methane production but also enhanced methane oxidation. In conclusion| methane emission from paddy soil could be suppressed| over two cropping seasons by single application of RFS without loosing grain yield. 5715,2002,2,4,Fingerprinting soil organic matter in the arctic to help predict CO2 flux,In the past 30 years| the arctic climate has warmed appreciably and there is evidence for a significant polar amplification of global warming in the future. A warming and drying of northern soils could result in an increase in organic matter decomposition and positive feedback to future climate warming. Northern ecosystems have accumulated 25-33% of the world's soil carbon| much of which is preserved as poorly decomposed plant remains. The soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition rate| however| depends on many variables such as temperature| nutrient availability| pH| oxidation/reduction potential| and chemical composition of the SOM. This paper addresses the effect of SOM composition on CO2 respiration in arctic soil. In order to isolate the effect of SOM composition on respiration rate| 19 soils from the circumpolar arctic were incubated in a 25 degreesC| nutrient-rich| pH neutral| constantly mixed environment. The SOM composition was studied using pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (py-GC/MS)| an analytical technique that produces a "fingerprint" of SOM. Correlations were made between SOM composition and CO2 respiration rate for the 19 soils. From these data| a model was built to predict respiration rates in soil subjected to similar incubation conditions using py-GC/MS fingerprints. Results go on to compare model predictions of measured respiration in laboratory incubations of 15 soils from four different locations in the Northern and Western Alaska Transects. Predictions for cumulative respiration over a 70-day laboratory respiration test were within 20% of measured values. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5887,2002,2,4,Floodwater use and management strategies in valleys of southeast Spain,Southeast Spain has a semiarid climate with highly variable rainfall from year to year. Global warming scenarios predict a decrease in rainfall in future and land-use changes may also alter run-off regimes. Water deficit has meant that various practices of floodwater farming have traditionally operated in valley floors. However| flash floods in the valley floors can also be dangerous and damaging. Many of the boqueras and other floodwater irrigation systems have been abandoned. The effects on the hydrological regime of the channel are calculated. These structures and water management practices could have an effect on the magnitude of low-moderate peak discharges| but are insignificant in high flows. Modem channel and flood management employs check dams| but these are frequently destroyed in moderate-high flows. Alternative strategies of channel management need to be sought and the use or vegetation cover to dissipate flood peaks and to reduce erosion may offer one possibility. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons| Ltd. 5687,2002,2,4,Foodborne disease in the new millennium: out of the frying pan and into the fire?,About four million cases of foodborne infectious disease occur annually in Australia; new foodborne pathogens| such as enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli| are emerging. Climate change| combined with changes in how we produce and distribute food and how we behave as consumers| have the potential to affect foodborne disease in the coming century. Foodborne disease outbreaks are now more far-reaching (and sometimes global) due to modern mass food production and widespread food distribution. There are strong seasonal patterns for Salmonella and Campylobacter infection in Australia. Global warming may increase the incidence of infections| such as salmonellosis| and diseases caused by toxins| such as ciguatera. 2918,2002,4,4,Forcing of the quasi-biennial oscillation from a broad spectrum of atmospheric waves,[1] The circulation of the stratosphere| and its influence on the trace constituent distribution| is an important component of the climate system| which must be included in simulations of global climate change. However| the ability to simulate a dominant stratospheric phenomenon| the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in equatorial zonal wind| is an outstanding challenge in climate modeling. Although confined to the tropics| the QBO affects the circulation and the interannual variability of the entire stratosphere| parts of the mesosphere and possibly also of the troposphere. Here we show that the QBO is successfully simulated in a general circulation model (GCM) of the newest generation. Key factors are a sufficient spatial resolution| a realistic simulation of tropical convection| and the consideration of the effects of gravity waves. From this simulation it is inferred that a broad spectrum of atmospheric waves is necessary to generate the QBO in the model. 2871,2002,2,4,Forest tree and fern species as indicators of an unnatural fire event in a southern Cape mountain forest,fromontane forests in the southern Cape are typically surrounded by fire prone fynbos. Although the impact of fire on fynbos has been extensively studied| little is known about the impact of fire on adjacent forest. Fire swept through a mountain forest in the southern Cape in 1996. Our study indicated that this fire was one of at least two fires that influenced the recent history of this forest; the other fire was probably the great fire of 1869. We consider the latter fire typical of fires that burn mountain forest and suggest a return period for these fires of between a 100 and 200 years. In contrast to the 1869 fire| evidence from our study suggests that the 1996 fire was unprecedented in the recent history of the forest. This fire changed a large proportion of Ocotea bullata in the margin from single stemmed to multistemmed trees and reduced the number of Cyathea capensis in the margin by 68%. Using these species as indicators| we argue that similar fires will reduce the structure and diversity of mountain forests as a whole. The 1996 fire was fuelled by abnormally high fuel loads associated with surrounding pine plantations and mountain fynbos invaded by woody aliens. Given that large areas of mountain fynbos are invaded by woody aliens| that large areas of the southern Cape are afforested and that global climate change is likely to lead to an increase in the conditions favouring intense fires| we consider effective management of Afromontane mountain forests essential. 2919,2002,2,4,Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios,Global climates are changing rapidly| with unexpected consequences(1). Because elements of biodiversity respond intimately to climate as an important driving force of distributional limitation(2)| distributional shifts and biodiversity losses are expected(3|4). Nevertheless| in spite of modelling efforts focused on single species(2) or entire ecosystems(5)| a few preliminary surveys of fauna-wide effects(6|7)| and evidence of climate change-mediated shifts in several species(8|9)| the likely effects of climate change on species' distributions remain little known| and fauna-wide or community-level effects are almost completely unexplored(6). Here| using a genetic algorithm and museum specimen occurrence data| we develop ecological niche models for 1|870 species occurring in Mexico and project them onto two climate surfaces modelled for 2055. Although extinctions and drastic range reductions are predicted to be relatively few| species turnover in some local communities is predicted to be high (> 40% of species)| suggesting that severe ecological perturbations may result. 5884,2002,3,4,Future trends in the management of livestock production,The intensification of animal production systems proceeded rapidly in the latter part of the twentieth century| often aided by government support. However| only short-term benefits of intensification were realized and consumers started to select animal produce from less intensive production systems in the belief that it would be healthier| kinder to the animals and less likely to cause damage to the environment. Recent research has shown that the production of high quality traditional dairy products will provide an income for more people than intensive dairy production| thus helping to serve as a functional basis for rural land use. It is Often argued that extensive production cannot produce enough food for the majority of the population| but such estimates rely on outdated and inadequate levels of output from the traditional systems. Modern organic dairy systems|for example| should produce at least two-thirds of that of intensive systems and should therefore be able to provide for the majority of consumers in the UK. However| it is anticipated that increased global trade in livestock products will further threaten the livelihood of UK producers. Their options are to reduce input costs and develop specialized markets for high quality products ahead of their competitors. For example| the increased potential lifespan of the human population will encourage people to consume products that promote longevity| such as those with minimal contamination by pollutants. In many parts of the world| but particularly in the central continental land masses| livestock production will be challenged by global warming. Traditional production systems are likely to survive better| as they are buffered against variations in weather. It is concluded that livestock production systems have the potential to provide high quality food and employment| especially in marginal areas| and to preserve the land for the benefit of future generations. However| if badly managed| intensive systems may lead to major adverse effects on the environment| damage to human health and a reduction in food supply for those in developing countries. 5931,2002,2,4,Gas dynamics in eutrophic lake sediments affected by oxygen| nitrate| and sulfate,In many freshwater ecosystems| the contents of NO3- and SO42- have increased| whereas O-2 has been depleted due to the increased acid and nutrient loads. These changes may. affect carbon turnover and the dynamics of the major greenhouse gases CO2| CH4| and N2O. We studied the effects of O-2| NO3-| and SO42- availability on carbon mineralization| and fluxes of CO2| CH4| and N2O in the sediments of hypermeutrophic Lake Kevaton| Finland. Undisturbed sediment cores from the deep (9 m) and shallow (4 m) profundal were incubated in a laboratory microcosm with oxic and anoxic water flows with NO3- or SO42- concentrations of 0| 30| 100| 300| and 2000 muM. The carbon mineralization rate (i.e.| the sum of released CO2-C and CH4-C) was not affected by the oxidants. However| the oxidants did change the pathways of carbon degradation and the release of CH4. All of the oxidants depressed CH4. fluxes in the shallow profundal sediments| which had low organic matter content. In the deep profundal sediments rich in organic matter| the CH4 release was reduced by O-2 but was not affected by SO42- (the effect of NO3- was not studied). There was an increase in N2O release as the overlying water NO3- concentration increased. Anoxia and highly elevated NO3- concentrations| associated with eutrophication| increased drastically the global warming potential (GWP) of the sedimentary gases in contrast to the SO42- load| which had only minor effects on the GWP. 2894,2002,2,4,Gas exchange| biomass| whole-plant water-use efficiency and water uptake of peach (Prunus persica) seedlings in response to elevated carbon dioxide concentration and water availability,We examined the interactive effects of elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and water stress on growth and physiology of 1-year-old peach (Prunus persica L.) seedlings grown in 10-dm(3) pots in open-top chambers with ambient (350 mumol mol(-1)) or elevated (700 mumol mol(-1)) [CO2]. Seedlings were supplied weekly with a non-limiting nutrient solution. Water was withheld from half of the plants in each treatment for a 4-week drying cycle| to simulate a sudden and severe water stress during the phase of rapid plant growth. Throughout the growing season| seedlings in elevated [CO2] had higher assimilation rates| measured at the growth [CO2]| than seedlings in ambient [CO2]| and this caused an increase in total dry mass of about 33%. Stomatal conductance| total water uptake| leaf area and leaf number were unaffected by elevated [CO2]. Because seedlings in the two CO2 treatments had similar transpiration despite large differences in total dry mass| water-use efficiency (WUE) of well-watered and water-stressed seedlings grown in elevated [CO2] was an average of 51 and 63% higher| respectively| than WUE of comparable seedlings grown in ambient [CO2]. Elevated [CO2] enhanced total biomass of water-stressed seedlings by 31%| and thus ameliorated the effects of water limitation. However| the percentage increases in total dry mass between well-watered and water-stressed seedlings were similar in ambient (53%) and elevated (58%) [CO2]| demonstrating that there was no interaction between elevated [CO2] and water stress. This finding should be considered when predicting responses of trees to global climate change in hot and dry environments| where predicted temperature increases will raise evaporative demands and exacerbate the effects of drought on tree growth. 5680,2002,4,4,General circulation model simulations of recent cooling in the east-central United States,[1] In ensembles of retrospective general circulation model (GCM) simulations| surface temperatures in the east-central United States cool between 1951 and 1997. This cooling| which is broadly consistent with observed surface temperatures| is present in GCM experiments driven by observed time varying sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific| whether or not increasing greenhouse gases and other time varying climate forcings are included. Here we focus on ensembles with fixed radiative forcing and with observed varying SST in different regions. In these experiments the trend and variability in east-central U. S. surface temperatures are tied to tropical Pacific SSTs. Warm tropical Pacific SSTs cool U. S. temperatures by diminishing solar heating through an increase in cloud cover. These associations are embedded within a year-round response to warm tropical Pacific SST that features tropospheric warming throughout the tropics and regions of tropospheric cooling in midlatitudes. Precipitable water vapor over the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean and the tropospheric thermal gradient across the Gulf Coast of the United States increase when the tropical Pacific is warm. In observations| recent warming in the tropical Pacific is also associated with increased precipitable water over the southeast United States. The observed cooling in the east-central United States| relative to the rest of the globe| is accompanied by increased cloud cover| though year-to-year variations in cloud cover| U. S. surface temperatures| and tropical Pacific SST are less tightly coupled in observations than in the GCM. 5935,2002,2,4,Genetic diversity| mating system| and conservation of a Mexican subalpine relict| Picea mexicana Martinez,Mexican spruce (Picea mexicana Martinez)| an endangered species of the highest sky islands in Mexico's Sierra Madre Oriental and Sierra Madre Occidental| is threatened by fire| grazing| and global warming. Its conservation depends on whether it also is threatened by inbreeding and loss of genic diversity. We used 18 isozyme markers in 12 enzyme systems to assay genic diversity| characterize the mating system| and test for recent bottlenecks in three known populations. Unbiased| expected heterozygosity (H-e) averaged 0.125. Despite a separation of 676 km between populations in the Sierra Madre Oriental and the Sierra Madre Occidental| Wright's F-ST| the proportion of total genic diversity among populations| was only 6.9%. Nei's genetic distance was 0.001 between the populations in the Sierra Madre Oriental and more than an order of magnitude greater| 0.019| between the Sierra Madre Oriental and Sierra Madre Occidental. However| both values point to relatively recent divergence. Mating systems were predominantly outcrossing| but with significant selling. Multilocus estimates of selling varied from 19% to 41%| and the means of single-locus estimates were higher| suggesting that additional inbreeding occurred by mating among relatives. Despite significant inbreeding| observed heterozygosity was as high as or higher than H-e; Wright's fixation index| F-IS| was -0.107. Under the observed level of selfing| positive values of F-IS were expected. Therefore| selection against inbreds and homozygotes must be intense. Cornuet-Luikart tests indicate recent bottlenecks in at least two of the three populations. The results suggest that Mexican spruce is a genetically viable species| and threats are primarily environmental. 2910,2002,2,4,Genetic variation and population structure in central and isolated populations of balsam fir| Abies balsamea (Pinaceae),Genetic variation and spatial genetic structure in balsam fir (Abies balsamea) were examined in two isolated populations in Iowa and Minnesota thought to be paleorefugia and in two ecologically central populations in old-growth forests of Upper Michigan. Overall levels of genetic variability at 22 allozyme loci were lower than that found in most conifer species (H-o values ranged from 0.005 in the isolated populations to 0.025 in the central populations). The mean F-IS value (0.154) was larger than usually found in conifers and suggests moderate levels of inbreeding. The mean F-ST| an estimate of genetic diversity among populations| was 3.7% of the total diversity| a value lower than the mean for conifers. Nm| the number of migrants per generation| was 6.5| suggesting either some gene flow among populations or a lack of genetic differentiation. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed a moderately patchy structure| with gene flow distances of 30-70 m in the central populations and at least 10 m in the isolated populations. The future of the ecologically central populations depends on maintenance of an intact forest mosaic. The low genetic variability in the small| isolated populations suggests that habitat fragmentation has led to a reduction in evolutionary potential and that the future viability of these populations will likely require active management in the face of global climate change. 5908,2002,2,4,Geo-ecology and management of sensitive montane landscapes,Montane (alpine) areas are generally of high value for nature conservation. Such environments and the habitats they support are dynamic and often fragile. They are vulnerable to disturbance from a range of human activities and are responsive to climate changes over short and long timescales. Biodiversity and conservation values are closely linked to geological history| geomorphological processes and soils| and it is crucial that management systems are based on understanding these links. There are many similarities between the Cairngorm Mountains (Scotland)| the Giant Mountains (Czech Republic) and Abisko Mountains (Sweden) in terms of geology| geomorphology| ecology| links with biodiversity and high conservation importance. Comparable pressures and management issues involve| to varying degrees| a history of human use and impacts from deforestation| pasturing| grazing| recreation and atmospheric pollution. Landscape change therefore involves a complex interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors. Managing such change requires better understanding of the geo-ecological processes involved and the factors that determine landscape sensitivity. This is illustrated through a simple framework and examples from the three areas. Comparison of landscape sensitivity between similar montane areas| but in different geographic locations and climatic environments| should allow more informed management planning and a precautionary approach in advance of further changes in human activity and from predicted global warming scenarios. 5898,2002,3,2,Geological sequestration of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the western Canada sedimentary basin: Suitability analysis,Geological sequestration of anthropogenic carbon dioxide is a potential solution to the release into the atmosphere Of CO2| a greenhouse gas thought of as significantly contributing to the global warming trend observed since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Basically| CO2 can be sequestered in geological media: 1) through enhanced oil recovery (EOR)| 2) by storage in depleted oil and gas reservoirs| 3) through replacement by CO2 of methane in deep coal beds (ECBMR)| 4) by injection into deep saline aquifers| and 5) by storage in salt caverns. Criteria in assessing the suitability of a sedimentary basin for CO2 sequestration are: a) tectonism and geology| b) the flow of formation waters and geothermal regime| and c) the existence of storage media (hydrocarbon reservoirs| coal seams| deep aquifers and salt structures). Generally| the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin is suitable for CO2 sequestration by all means because it is tectonically stable| it has regional-scale aquifers confined by aquitards or aquicludes| and it has oil and gas reservoirs in various stages of depletion| uneconomic coal seams| and extensive salt beds. However| various regions in the basin have different degrees of suitability| ranging from not suitable along the eastern edge of the basin| to extremely suitable in southwestern and central Alberta. Most major CO2 producers| such as power plants and refineries around Edmonton| are found in regions that are unsuitable for CO2 sequestration in geological media; however| some| such as the oil sands plants in the Athabasca area| are in regions that are not suitable. This analysis of the suitability of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin for CO2 sequestration in geological media should provide industry and governments with essential information needed for developing plans and policies in response to climate change effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. 2912,2002,2,4,GIS simulations of the inundation risk in the coastal lowlands of the Northern Adriatic Sea,The Northern Adriatic Coastland| between the cities of Monfalcone and Cattolica| is characterized by locations of great tourist interest| such as the Venice Lagoon and the Romagna Riviera| and areas with a very precarious environmental setting| such as the Valli di Comacchio| and the Po River Delta. Therefore| the coastal management and the design of new defence works of the littoral have to be made with the utmost care| possibly with the aid of numerical predictions of the coastal morphodynamics and the flood risk analysis of the lowland involved. In the study area| land may subside due to sediment natural compaction and subsurface fluid (water and gas) withdrawal. At the same time| littoral transport of solid material can contribute appreciably to change the shore morphology. Mean sea level may rise permanently due to global climate change (eustatism) and occasionally due to tides and intensive storm events. The predictions of each individual process is obtained using various ad hoc mathematical models and the outcome of the numerical simulations are managed with a GIS (geographical information system). Coastline evolution until the year 2100 is investigated and risk factor maps of the low-lying coastal areas are generated which account for the hazard of the expected event| and the land economic value and vulnerability. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5903,2002,2,4,Glacier foreland colonisation: distinguishing between short-term and long-term effects of climate change,By comparing short-term (6 years) observations with long-term (>100 years): community changes reconstructed from the chronosequence along a glacier foreland| I show that the colonisation of recently deglaciated terrain by invertebrates may constitute a process reacting sensitively to temperature fluctuations. Early colonising stages (<30 years old) currently develop faster| and intermediate successional stages (30 50 years| old) slower| than would be indicated by the long-term chronosequence pattern. These differences between the chronosequence approach and direct observation can be explained by a simple model relating the rate of community evolution to the temperature record. It would mean that an increase of 0.6degreesC in summer temperatures approximately doubled the speed of initial colonisation| whereas later successional stages were less sensitive to climate change. The present situation appears to result from unusually warm summers around 1950 and a warm period accelerating glacier retreat since 1980. In contrast to the long-term trend| all except the youngest communities have suffered a loss in diversity in recent years. 2913,2002,2,4,Global climate change and health: Challenges for future practitioners,http://www.bvsde.paho.org/bvsacd/cd68/JPatz3.pdf
OVERVIEW
Global climate change is expected to have broad health im- pacts.1 If current warming trends continue| heat waves| floods| and droughts and their attendant physical effects are likely to become more frequent and severe. Warmer air tem- peratures can influence the concentration of regional air pol- lutants and aeroallergens. Less direct health impacts may result from the disruption of ecosystems and of water and food supplies| which in turn could affect infectious disease incidence and nutritional status. Finally| sea-level rise could lead to major population displacement and economic disruption.
2905,2002,2,4,Global climate change and sea level rise: Potential losses of intertidal habitat for shorebirds,Global warming is expected to result in an acceleration in Current rates of sea level rise| inundating many low-lying coastal arid intertidal areas. This could have important implications for organisms that depend on these sites| including shorebirds that rely on them for feeding habitat during their migrations and in winter. We modeled the potential changes in the extent of intertidal foraging habitat for shorebirds at five sites in the United States that currently-support internationally important numbers of migrating and wintering birds. Even assuming a conservative global warming scenario of 2degreesC within the next century (the most recent projections range between 1.4degreesC and 5.8degreesC)| we project major intertidal habitat loss at four of the sites (Willapa Bay| Humboldt Bay| San Francisco Bay| arid Delaware Bay). Projected losses range between 20% and 70% of current intertidal habitat. Such losses might jeopardize the ability of these sites to continue to support their current shorebird numbers. The most Severe losses are likely to occur at sitcom where the coastline is unable to move inland because of steep topography or seawalls. The effects of sea level rise may be exacerbated by additional anthropogenic factors. In southern San Francisco Bay| for example| sea level rise may interact with land subsidence due to aquifer depletion| and the constraints imposed by existing seawalls on the landward migration of habitat| resulting in the greatest habitat loss. At the fifth site (Bolivar Flats) we project smaller losses as the intertidal habitat: are unconstrained by sea walls and will be able to migrate inland in response to rising sea level. Installation of additional coastal protection barriers at this site and others is likely to exacerbate the rate and extent of intertidal habitat loss. 5844,2002,4,4,Global cooling after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo: A test of climate feedback by water vapor,The sensitivity of Earth's climate to an external radiative forcing depends critically on the response of water vapor. We use the global cooling and drying of the atmosphere that was observed after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo to test model predictions of the climate feedback from water vapor. Here| we first highlight the success of the model in reproducing the observed drying after the volcanic eruption. Then| by comparing model simulations with and without water vapor feedback| we demonstrate the importance of the atmospheric drying in amplifying the temperature change and show that| without the strong positive feedback from water vapor| the model is unable to reproduce the observed cooling. These results provide quantitative evidence of the reliability of water vapor feedback in current climate models| which is crucial to their use for global warming projections. 5747,2002,4,4,Global ocean emission of dimethylsulfide predicted from biogeophysical data,Among the biosphere-atmosphere interactions that influence climate| the emission of dimethylsulfide (DMS) from the ocean plays a prominent role for its high potential in cloud albedo regulation. In order to advance in our understanding and quantification of this coupled ocean-atmosphere system| both synoptic and predictive capabilities must be largely improved. Hitherto| large-scale oceanic DMS has eluded being captured from remote sensing| correlated with synoptic variables| or simulated by mechanistic modeling. We have found a simple empirical relationship that permits global-ocean monthly distributions of DMS concentration to be computed from a combination of remotely sensed biospheric data (chlorophyll a) and climatological geophysical data (mixed layer depth). This relationship allows for the desired synopticity and predictability in the ocean-to-atmosphere sulfur flux| which we have globally quantified as 23-35 Tg S yr(-1). Also| our algorithm stands in support of a biogenic-DMS/solar-radiation negative feedback and opens the door toward quantifying its strength and its response to global warming. 5787,2002,2,2,Global warming - Effects on plants,The burning of fossil fuels| the large-scale clearing of forests| and other human activities are altering global climates at an alarming rate. The continued consumption of fossil fuels is expected to result in a doubling of the current [CO2] by sometime in this century. These increases in CO2 as well as other “greenhouse gasses” are expected to raise world temperatures by 0.03°C per year in the 21st century. Global warming and increased atmospheric [CO2] are already having a major impact on plant distributions. Plants| in general| benefit from slightly warmer temperatures and higher [CO2]| but not all plants will benefit equally from these conditions| and some may even be harmed: There will be winners and losers in the warmer world of the near future. If the past is any indicator| the losers may greatly outnumber the winners. Pala-eobotanical evidence indicates that there was a 4-fold increase in atmospheric [CO2] across the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and an associated 3°C to 4°C “greenhouse” warming (McElwain et al.| 1999). These environmental conditions were calculated to have raised leaf temperatures above a highly conserved lethal limit| perhaps contributing to the >95% species-level turnover of Triassic-Jurassic megaflora. Are we destined to witness a floral mass extinction of similar proportions in the coming few centuries? The data and models discussed in this month's column suggest that the mass extinction| or at least the mass ecological upheaval| has already begun.
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An LCA case study was conducted for the production of lead and zinc by an Imperial Smelting Process (abbreviated hereafter as ISP) in Shaoguan Smelter| China. The detailed inventory analysis was performed by allocating the Input/Output among the main products. The environmental impacts were assessed by using the following five Eco-indicators: Gross Energy Requirement (GER)| Global Warming Potential (GWP)| Acidification Potential (AP)| Heavy Metal Toxicity (HMT) and Solid Waste Burden (SWB). This study is useful to address the environmental situation of the ISP practiced in this smelter| and provides a scientific basis for further improvement.
2920,2002,3,4,Leaders| pushers and laggards in the making of the climate regime,The primary motivation for this paper is to illuminate the role of leadership exerted by individuals| institutions and nation-states at various stages of the global climate change regime| Four forms of leadership: intellectual| instrumental| power-based| and directional| are identified| Next| theoretical claims about the dominance of particular forms of leadership at particular stages of regime formation are empirically tested by examining the agenda setting and negotiation phases of the climate regime. This analysis tends to support theoretical claims that intellectual leadership is particularly prominent during agenda setting| but evidence to support the influence of entrepreneurial leaders during negotiations is mixed at best for the climate regime. Structural or power based leadership meanwhile was largely absent during agenda setting of the climate regime but has been in clear evidence through the negotiations of the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5928,2002,3,4,Life cycle inventory analysis of hydrogen production by the steam-reforming process: comparison between vegetable oils and fossil fuels as feedstock,A life cycle inventory analysis has been conducted to assess the environmental load| specifically CO2 (fossil) emissions and global warming potential (GWP)| associated to the production of hydrogen by the steam reforming of hydrocarbon feedstocks (methane and naphtha) and vegetable oils (rapeseed oil| soybean oil and palm oil). Results show that the GWPs associated with the production of hydrogen by steam reforming in a 100 years time frame are 9.71 and 9.46 kg CO2-equivalent/kg H-2 for natural gas and naphtha| respectively. For vegetable oils| the GWP decreases to 6.42 kg CO2-equivalent/ kg H-2 for rapeseed oil| 4.32 for palm oil and 3.30 for soybean oil. A dominance analysis determined that the part of the process that has the largest effect on the GWP is the steam reforming reaction itself for the fossil fuel-based systems| which accounts for 56.7% and 74% of the total GWP for natural gas and naphtha| respectively. This contribution is zero for vegetable oil-based systems| for which harvesting and oil production are the main sources of CO2-eq emissions. 5924,2002,3,4,Life-cycle assessment as an environmental management tool in the production of potable water,The environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was used in this study to calculate and compare the environmental burdens resulting from two different methods employed in the production of potable water in South Africa. One method employs conventional processes for the treatment of water and the other one is based on membrane filtration. All inputs (raw materials and energy) and outputs (products| by-products and emissions to air| water and soil) from the two methods were listed and quantified. These inputs and outputs cause different environmental impacts (global warming| ozone depletion| smog formation| acidification| nutrient enrichment| ecotoxicity and human toxicity) and the contribution of each method to each of these impact categories has been quantified| resulting in a score. The ISO (International Organisation for Standardisation) methodological framework for life cycle assessments guided this study. By using these methodologies and by tracing all the processes involved in the production of potable water to the interface with the environment| it was found that the main contributor to the overall environmental burden is the generation of electricity. This conclusion is valid for both methods investigated and in order to increase the environmental performance in the production of potable water the energy efficiency of waterworks should be increased. 5705,2002,4,3,Lifetimes of atmospheric species: Integrating environmental impacts,[1] The environmental damage caused by atmospheric pollutants is proportional to the duration of their effects. The global impacts of greenhouse gases (as measured by global warming potential) and ozone depleting substances (as measured by ozone depletion potential) have traditionally been calculated using the atmospheric lifetime of the source gas as a quantitative measure of the impact's duration| assuming that the gas quickly reaches a steady-state pattern which decays exponentially according to the lifetime. This assumed behavior obviously does not match the true rise and fall of impacts| particularly secondary ones like ozone depletion| that can be seen in numerical integrations or chemical mode decomposition. Here| the modes decomposition is used to prove that: (a) the steady-state pattern of impacts caused by specified emissions| multiplied by (b) the steady-state lifetime of the source gas for that emission pattern| is exactly equal to (c) the integral of all impacts - independent of the number and atmospheric residence times of secondary impacts. 5902,2002,2,4,Limited predictability of the future thermohaline circulation close to an instability threshold,Most ocean-atmosphere models predict a reduction of the thermohaline circulation for a warmer climate in the near future. Although a reduction in the Atlantic Ocean circulation appears to be a robust result| the question remains open whether the climate system could possibly cross a critical threshold leading to a complete shutdown of the North Atlantic deep-water formation. Ensemble simulations with an ocean-atmosphere climate model of reduced complexity are performed to investigate the range of possible future climate evolutions when the climate system is close to such a threshold. It is found that the sensitivity of the ocean circulation to perturbations increases rapidly when approaching the bifurcation point| thereby severely limiting the predictability of future climate. At the bifurcation point| different response types such as linear responses| nonlinear transitions| or resonance behavior are observed. Close to the threshold| thermohaline shutdowns can occur thousands of years after the warming has stopped. A characterization of the probability for the different response types reveals a more complex picture for the future evolution of the ocean circulation than previously assumed. These results raise fundamental questions of how far the large differences in projections of the Atlantic circulation response to global warming are caused by different representations of processes| parameterizations| and/or resolution in individual models and whether the predictability of the Atlantic circulation becomes inherently limited when approaching a bifurcation point. 5702,2002,2,4,Linking climate change and biological invasions: Ocean warming facilitates nonindigenous species invasions,The spread of exotic species and climate change are among the most serious global environmental threats. Each independently causes considerable ecological damage| yet few data are available to assess whether changing climate might facilitate invasions by favoring introduced over native species. Here| we compare our long-term record of weekly sessile marine invertebrate recruitment with interannual variation in water temperature to assess the likely effect of climate change on the success and spread of introduced species. For the three most abundant introduced species of ascidian (sea squirt)| the timing of the initiation of recruitment was strongly negatively correlated with winter water temperature| indicating that invaders arrived earlier in the season in years with warmer winters. Total recruitment of introduced species during the following summer also was positively correlated with winter water temperature. In contrast| the magnitude of native ascidian recruitment was negatively correlated with winter temperature (more recruitment in colder years) and the timing of native recruitment was unaffected. In manipulative laboratory experiments| two introduced compound ascidians grew faster than a native species| but only at temperatures near the maximum observed in summer. These data suggest that the greatest effects of climate change on biotic communities may be due to changing maximum and minimum temperatures rather than annual means. By giving introduced species an earlier start| and increasing the magnitude of their growth and recruitment relative to natives| global warming may facilitate a shift to dominance by nonnative species| accelerating the homogenization of the global biota. 5698,2002,2,4,Linking global circulation model synoptics and precipitation for western North America,Synoptic downscaling from global circulation models (GCMs) has been widely used to develop local and regional-scale future precipitation scenarios under global warming. This paper presents an analysis of the linkages between the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis first version of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CCCma CGCM1) 2000 model output and local/regional precipitation time series. The GCM 500 hPa geopotential heights were visually classified for Synoptic patterns using a geographical information system. The pattern frequencies were statistically compared with historical data from Chan-non et al. (1993. Monthly| Weather Review 121: 633-647) for the winter period 1961-85| The CGCM1 synoptic frequencies compare favourably with the historical data. and they represent a Substantial improvement over the 1992 Canadian Climate Centre Global Circulation Model Synoptic climatology Output. The CGCM1 output was used to forecast future winter precipitation scenarios for five geographically diverse climate stations in western North America. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. 5744,2002,2,3,Linking ozone pollution and climate change: The case for controlling methane,[1] Methane (CH4) emission controls are found to be a powerful lever for reducing both global warming and air pollution via decreases in background tropospheric ozone (O-3). Reducing anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 50% nearly halves the incidence of U.S. high-O-3 events and lowers global radiative forcing by 0.37 W m(-2) (0.30 W m(-2) from CH4| 0.07 W m(-2) from O-3) in a 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry. A 2030 simulation based upon IPCC A1 emissions projections shows a longer and more intense U.S. O-3 pollution season despite domestic emission reductions| indicating that intercontinental transport and a rising O-3 background should be considered when setting air quality goals. 5901,2002,3,3,Links between Cairo and Kyoto: Addressing global warming through voluntary family planning,Over the past three decades| with a combination of new technology| rising female literacy rates| and strengthened family planning programs| the world has seen dramatic increases in the use of contraception| with corresponding declines in fertility and population growth rates. At the International Conference on Population and Development| Cairo in 1994| parties pledged a tripling of funding for reproductive health programs in developing countries. Many demographers believe that making such programs more widely available to women would extend the decline in birth rates and shift the world towards the low scenario of United Nations population projections over the next century and a half. By examining the costs and impacts of such programs| in view of the links between population and carbon emissions| this paper shows that extension of voluntary family planning could make a large and cost-effective contribution to the greenhouse gas limitation goals of the Kyoto Protocol that was negotiated in 1997. 5862,2002,2,4,Localization of abrupt change in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation,[1] Recent climate model experiments| as well as paleoclimate records| suggest that the meridional overturning circulation or "thermohaline circulation'' in the Atlantic Ocean could change abruptly as a result of global warming| and that this could have a significant impact on European climate. We use a reduced-gravity model to investigate the response of the Atlantic overturning circulation to changes in forcing. We find that variability at decadal and higher frequencies is confined to a single hemisphere. This implies that (a) overturning variability resulting from high frequency changes in buoyancy forcing in the Labrador and Greenland Seas will be limited to the North Atlantic| and (b) any observed decadal and higher frequency fluctuations in North Atlantic overturning can only result from changes in the surface fluxes within the North Atlantic basin itself. These results suggest that Southern Ocean wind forcing is not important for North Atlantic overturning on decadal and shorter timescales. 5788,2002,2,4,Long-term decline in abundance and distribution of the garden tiger moth (Arctia caja) in Great Britain,The garden tiger moth (Arctia caja) was once widespread and common in the UK. Data collected using the standard light-traps of the Rothamsted Insect Survey over Great Britain from 1968 to 1998 showed that A. caja abundance fluctuated near 4.2 captures per site until 1983| and then fell 28% to an average of 3.0 captures per site after 1984. The collated index| frequently used to monitor UK butterfly abundance| was not suitable to detect this large| 1-year population change. Four years after the sudden decrease in abundance| the proportion of sites occupied also fell rapidly from an average of 0.60 to an average of 0.42 (30%). Contrary to most UK butterflies| which are expected to increase under the UK climate change scenarios of global warming| linear regression modelling showed that warm| wet winters and springs may be detrimental to A. caja and it is therefore predicted to decrease further. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5699,2002,2,4,Long-term dynamics of coral reefs in St. John| US Virgin Islands,In this study| long-term (1987-1998) dynamics are described on a local scale (<20 km) for coral reefs in St. John| US Virgin Islands| which are located in a marine protected area (MPA). The study consists of two sites (Yawzi and Tektite) which were selected in 1987 based on relatively high coral cover (=32%)| and six sites that were randomly selected in 1992. Over 12 years| mean coral cover at Yawzi (9 in depth) changed significantly| declining from 45 to 20% cover between 1987 and 1998 (a 56% reduction). Less than I kin away at Tektite (14 in depth)| coral cover also changed significantly| but here. it increased 34% (from 32 to 43% cover). Over the same period| macroalgal cover showed a significant upward trend at both sites| increasing from 2 to 26% at Yawzi| and from 6 to 13% at Tektite. The random sites (7-9 in depth) differed from the initial sites in both community structure and dynamics. Mean coral cover at the random sites (similar to8%) was less than one third of that at Yawzi and Tektite| and varied significantly among sites and years in an idiosyncratic pattern. The percentage cover of macroalgae and the pooled coverage of crustose coralline algae| algal turf| and bare space showed a strong site x time interaction| illustrating that the sites differed in dynamics| but that the differences varied among times. Thus| as has been reported elsewhere in the Caribbean| serious reef degradation has occurred on at least one reef in St. John| but the patterns of change vary markedly on a kilometer-wide scale. In comparison with other long-term studies of Caribbean coral reefs| the degradation of a coral reef in an MPA around St. John is noteworthy since there are few local anthropogenic disturbances that can be held responsible for the decline. The strong possibility that large-scale events such as hurricanes and global warming have played a pivotal role in the decline of at least one reef in St. John emphasizes the need to embrace landscape- and regional-scale phenomena in order to understand and manage local coral reef dynamics. The occurrence of small patches of relatively healthy reef (i.e.| at Tektite) appears trivial in comparison to region-wide reef decline| but such anomalies should be studied further because of their potential roles as refugia for corals and reef-associated taxa. 5915,2002,3,3,Long-term effects of tillage| cover crops| and nitrogen fertilization on organic carbon and nitrogen concentrations in sandy loam soils in Georgia| USA,Maintaining and/or conserving organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) concentrations in the soil using management practices can improve its fertility and productivity and help to reduce global warming by sequestration of atmospheric CO2 and N-2. We examined the influence of 6 years of tillage (no-till| NT; chisel plowing| CP; and moldboard plowing| MP)| cover crop (hairy vetch (Vicia villosa Roth.) vs. winter weeds)| and N fertilization (0| 90| and 180 kg N ha(-1)) on soil organic C and N concentrations in a Norfolk sandy loam (fine-loamy| siliceous| thermic| Typic Kandiudults) under tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) and silage corn (Zea mays L.). In a second experiment| we compared the effects of 7 years| of non-legume (rye (Secale cereale L.)) and legume (hairy vetch and crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum L.)) cover crops and N fertilization (HN (90 kg N ha(-1) for tomato and 80 kg N ha(-1) for eggplant)) and FN (180 kg N ha(-1) for tomato and 160 kg N ha(-1) for eggplant) on soil organic C and N in a Greenville fine sandy loam (fine-loamy| kaolinitic| thermic| Rhodic Kandiudults) under tomato and eggplant (Solanum melogena L.). Both experiments were conducted from 1994 to 2000 in Fort Valley| GA. Carbon concentration in cover crops ranged from 704 kg ha(-1) in hairy vetch to 3704 kg ha(-1) in rye in 1999 and N concentration ranged from 77 kg ha(-1) in rye in 1996 to 299 kg ha(-1) in crimson clover in 1997. With or without N fertilization| concentrations of soil organic C and N were greater in NT with hairy vetch than in MP with or without hairy vetch (23.5-24.9 vs. 19.9-21.4 Mg ha(-1) and 1.92-2.05 vs. 1.58-1.76 Mg ha(-1) respectively). Concentrations of organic C and N were also greater with rye| hairy vetch| crimson clover| and FN than with the control without a cover crop or N fertilization (17.5-18.4 vs. 16.5 Mg ha(-1) and 1.33-1.43 vs. 1.31 Mg ha(-1)| respectively). From 1994 to 1999| concentrations of soil organic C and N decreased by 8-16% in NT and 15-25% in CP and MP. From 1994 to 2000| concentrations of organic C and N decreased by 1% with hairy vetch and crimson clover| 2-6% with HN and FN| and 6-18% with the control. With rye| organic C and N increased by 3-4%. Soil organic C and N concentrations can be conserved and/or maintained by reducing their loss through mineralization and erosion| and by sequestering atmospheric CO2 and N-2 in the soil using NT with cover crops and N fertilization. These changes in soil management improved soil quality and productivity. Non-legume (rye) was better than legumes (hairy vetch and crimson clover) and N fertilization in increasing concentrations of soil organic C and N. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5959,2002,4,4,Long-term trends in geomagnetic and climatic variability,Causes leading to global mean sea surface temperature (GT) variability and to variations of the global Circulation including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino (EN) events are examined. Statistically significant correlation coefficients between these variables were found and their relations are discussed with the aim to show possible causes leading to general year-to-year variability and to the global warming. At the same time| the results contribute to the verification of the hypothesis as given in our previous papers. We have suggested a link of processes generated by geomagnetic forcing that is followed by dramatic shifts in the atmospheric circulation patterns. At times of low geomagnetic activity in winter the meridional flow prevails contributing to the strong heat exchange of air between low and high latitudes. The arctic air penetrates from polar areas and participates in the cooling of middle latitudes; the NAO winter index (WI) is negative. At times of high geomagnetic activity the Icelandic low intensifies and influences the strengthening of the zonal flow in the Northern Hemisphere; the NAO WI is positive. A continuous zone of high pressure originates along middle latitudes and a little north-south motion of air takes place. In mid-latitudes above-normal temperatures occur while in polar areas the values are below normal. The strong Australian high at times of low geomagnetic activity seems to initiate EN events while the zonal flow in the Southern Hemisphere intensifies monsoon rains in the Indian Ocean when geomagnetic activity is high. EN and NAO events are shown to take part in the variability of GT. Controversial problems are discussed as well. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5937,2002,4,4,Long-term variations and interrelations of ENSO| NAO and solar activity,Much attention is recently paid to the global warming observed in the 20th century| and especially to the relative impact of natural and anthropogenic factors responsible for it. Many studies have revealed a good correlation| up to the last decades| between century-scale changes in global surface temperature and solar activity| though the mechanism is still controversial. Long-term anomalies of atmospheric parameters are often connected to large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation influencing| through teleconnections| distant and apparently unconnected areas. Such large-scale phenomena are El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affecting the climate over a great part of the globe on interannual to decadal and centennial time-scales. Little is known about the factors determining the long-term variability of these phenomena. In the present paper we compare the century-long variability of NAO and ENSO with the solar activity variations in the secular (Gleissberg) solar cycle and find a close relation between them. We suggest that the influence of solar activity on these large-scale phenomena is mediated by atmospheric centers of action which undergo changes in intensity and location in response to long-term variations of solar activity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5872,2002,2,4,Long-tern monitoring in the Netherlands suggests that lichens respond to global warming,There is evidence to suggest that part of the recent changes in the lichen flora of the Netherlands is attributable to an increase in temperature. Changes which have occurred over the last 22 years were studied in detail| and were subjected to a statistical treatment by comparing the change of species to their latitudinal distribution and to ecological determinants. All 329 epiphytic and terrestrial lichen species occurring in the Netherlands were considered in relation to their world distribution. Arctic-alpine/boreo-montane species appear to be declining| while (sub)tropical species are invading. The proportion of increasing species is by far the largest among the wide-tropical lichens (83%)| and smallest among the arctic-alpine/boreo-montane lichens (14%). None of the wide-tropical species was found to decrease| while 50% of the arctic-alpine/boreo-montane species show a decline. Long-term monitoring of the epiphytic lichen flora in the province of Utrecht from 1979 onwards shows that the total number of taxa present increased from 95 in 1979 to 172 in 2001| while the average number of taxa per site increased from 7.5 to 18.9. The rate of increase was greatest by far between 1989 and 1995. The majority of the species (152 taxa or 85%) show a gross increase| only 17 species (10%) show a decrease. A detailed analysis of these data using multiple regression suggests global warming as an additional cause for recent changes| next to decreasing SO(2) and increasing NH(3). Changes appear to be correlated initially (1979-1095) only with toxitolerance and nutrient demand. Changes between 1995 and 2001| however| appear positively correlated to both temperature and nutrient demand| indicating a recent and significant shift towards species preferring warm circumstances| independent from| and concurrent with changes due to nutrient availability. This is the first paper reporting long-term. floristic changes for lichens that appear to be correlated significantly with increasing temperatures. We suggest that future lichen monitoring programmes also pay attention to effects of climatic change| instead of focusing on air pollution effects only. (C) 2002 The British Lichen Society Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5906,2002,3,4,Low energy electron attachment to SF(5)CF(3),Low energy electron attachment to the potent greenhouse gas SF(5)CF(3) is studied at high energy resolution by means of mass spectrometric detection of the product anions. A large dissociative electron attachment (DA) cross-section forming SF(5)(-) + CF(3) is observed within a very narrow energy range close to zero eV. In addition| comparatively weak resonances are observed near 1 eV yielding the fragment ions CF(3)(-) and F(-). Some implications for the atmospheric lifetime of SF(5)CF(3) and hence its global warming potential (GWP) are considered. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5674,2002,2,4,Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity - 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability,[1] Recent research suggests that anthropogenic global warming would be associated with an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones. A recent statistical analysis of observed tropical cyclone intensity shows that its variability with location and season is strongly tied to the variability of the thermodynamic potential intensity (PI) of tropical cyclones| as calculated using a theory described in an earlier work by the authors. Thus it is of interest to look for possible trends in global measures of PI| which are far more stable than those of actual storm intensity. We estimate global trends of PI from 1958 to 1996| averaged over the region where it exceeds 40 m s(-1)| using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis and the NCEP Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) sea surface temperature (SST) analysis. We adjust the Reanalysis temperatures for a large| spurious temperature increase that occurred around 1979. We do this by subtracting from the Reanalysis the atmospheric temperature difference between pairs of years with similar tropical SST before and after 1979. The value of the global mean PI is very large for the SST of the corresponding region in the mid-1990s. Supported by a recent study on the effects of ozone decrease on tropospheric temperatures| we suggest that the ozone decrease might be one of the factors contributing to increase of PI during the 1990s. 2927,2002,2,4,Macroecology of mangroves: large-scale patterns and processes in tropical coastal forests,Macroecology is an emerging subdiscipline within ecology that explores effects of large-scale processes on local| regional| and global patterns of species diversity and taxon-independent scaling of structural and functional relationships. Statistical analysis of these patterns yields hypotheses concerning the processes determining population| community| and ecosystem-level patterns| which have been the historical focus of most ecological research| including that done in mangroves. The majority of studies of mangrove forests have aimed to better understand the causes of local (within-forest) ecological patterns (e.g. zonation| tolerance to salinity and hypoxia| litter-fall and production)| with little attention to the larger environmental| historical and evolutionary contexts that can influence local processes. I argue that a focus on the larger-scale contexts that constrain local processes (a "macroecology of mangroves") will provide us with new insights into the structure and function of mangrove ecosystems. Further| such analyses can be used to determine if mangroves follow similar general rules that have been identified for upland forested ecosystems. I consider two examples: relationships between local species richness and latitude| longitude and regional diversity; and structural coordination of leaf traits. I present data and analyses of these macroecological patterns in mangrove forests| and illustrate points of agreement and disagreement between these and upland ecosystems. I suggest that ecological theory developed in upland forests can be readily applied to mangrove forests. Such a conclusion should lead to advances in ecological research of mangroves and better predictions of how they will respond to global climate change. 2843,2002,4,4,Making inferences about past environmental change using smoothing in multiple time scales,The concern about global climate change has heightened the need to understand past climatic variation. Temperature variation during the past thousands of years can be estimated from the relative abundances of fossils of various organisms in lake sediments. The past temperatures thus reconstructed suggest several periods of cooling and warming| and it is important to understand how much of the seeming variation is really statistically significant. The paper proposes an inference approach based on the SiZer method. Several different smooths of the reconstructed temperature are considered simultaneously making possible inferences about significant temperature trends at different time scales. The proposed method is applied to temperature reconstruction using a diatom fossil-based data set collected in the Finnish Lapland. The paper also suggests modifications and extensions to the original SiZer method that the present application calls for. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5833,2002,2,4,Male-biased sex ratio in a small tuatara population,Aim We estimated population size| survival| longevity and sex ratio of tuatara (Sphenodon guntheri Buller 1877) on North Brother Island and determined whether recruitment was occurring| to aid management and identify potential problems for population viability. Location This study was conducted on North Brother Island| Cook Strait| New Zealand. This 4-ha island supports the sole remnant population of S. guntheri. Methods Demographic variables were estimated using capture-recapture methods. Tuatara were individually marked and recaptured during twelve trips| spanning a decade. Population size was estimated for selected trips using the CAPTURE package and finite mixture models| and survival was analysed using the Jolly-Seber (J-S) model. Longevity was estimated using tuatara individually marked in 1957. Results Approximately 350 adult tuatara profile likelihood interval (PLI) (294-427) inhabit North Brother Island| and the sex ratio is strongly biased towards males (1.7M : 1F). Annual adult survivorship is high (0.95) for both sexes and some tuatara live for at least 61 years. Main conclusions The small size and biased sex ratio of this population may make it susceptible to demographic stochasticity| Allee effects| and/or loss of genetic variation. Harvesting for translocation could exacerbate such problems. In addition| tuatara have temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD)| with males produced at higher incubation temperatures. Global warming may therefore skew the sex ratio further unless female nest site choice or adaptive shifts in pivotal temperatures compensate for rising temperatures. 2911,2002,2,4,Masting by eighteen New Zealand plant species: The role of temperature as a synchronizing cue,Masting| the intermittent production of large flower or seed crops by a population of perennial plants| can enhance the reproductive success of participating plants and drive fluctuations in seed-consumer populations and other ecosystem components over large geographic areas. The spatial and taxonomic extent over which masting is synchronized can determine its success in enhancing individual plant fitness as well as its ecosystem-level effects| and it can indicate the types of proximal cue| that enable reproductive synchrony. Here| we demonstrate high intra- and intergeneric synchrony in mast seeding by 17 species of New Zealand plants from four families across > 150 000 km(2). The synchronous species vary ecologically (pollination and dispersal modes) and are geographically widely separated| so intergeneric synchrony seems unlikely to be adaptive per se. Synchronous fruiting by these species was associated with anomalously high temperatures the summer before seedfall| a cue linked with the La Nina phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The lone asynchronous species appears|| to respond to summer temperatures| but with a 2-yr rather than 1-yr time lag. The importance of temperature anomalies as cues for synchronized masting suggests that the timing and intensity of masting may be sensitive to global climate change| with widespread effects on taxonomically disparate plant and animal communities. 5896,2002,3,2,Materials for global carbon dioxide recycling,CO(2) emissions| which induce global warming| increase with the development of economic activity. It is impossible to decrease the CO(2) emissions by suppression of the economic activity. Global CO(2) recycling can solve this problem. The global CO(2) recycling consists of three district: The electricity is generated by solar cells on deserts. At desert coasts| the electricity is used for H(2) production by seawater electrolysis and H(2) is used for CH(4) production by the reaction with CO(2) CH(4) which is the main component of liquefied natural gas is liquefied and transported to energy consuming districts where CO(2) is recovered| liquefied and transported to the desert coasts. A CO(2) recycling plant for substantiation of our idea has been built on the roof of the Institute for Materials Research in 1996. Key materials necessary for the global CO(2) recycling are the anode and cathode for seawater electrolysis and the catalyst for CO(2) conversion. All or them have been tailored by us. They have very high activity and selectivity for necessary reactions in addition to excellent durability. A pilot plant consisting of minimum units in an industrial scale is going to be built in three years. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5689,2002,2,4,Meteorologic influences on Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the highland tea estates of Kericho| western Kenya,Recent epidemics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria have been observed in high-altitude areas of East Africa. Increased malaria incidence in these areas of unstable malaria transmission has been attributed to a variety of changes including global warming. To determine whether the reemergence of malaria in western Kenya could be attributed to changes in meteorologic conditions| we tested for trends in a continuous 30-year monthly malaria incidence dataset (1966-1995) obtained from complete hospital registers at a Kenyan tea plantation. Contemporary monthly meteorologic data (1966-1995) that originated from the tea estate meteorologic station and from global climatology records were also tested for trends. We found that total hospital admissions (malaria and nonmalaria) remained unchanged while malaria admissions increased significantly during the period. We also found that all meteorologic variables showed no trends for significance| even when combined into a monthly suitability index for malaria transmission. We conclude that climate changes have not caused the highland malaria resurgence in western Kenya. 5957,2002,4,4,Meteorological and micrometeorological applications to frost monitoring in northern Italy orchards,Late frost are dangerous climatic hazards that can be responsible of fruit trees yield losses. Late frost potential hazard is| in particular| increased by the enhancement of low-temperature episodes in spring and to the concomitant early-blooming consequent to higher winter temperatures induced by the earth global warming. This paper reports observations on the micrometeorological features associated to frost occurrence in a representative area of the Po valley in order to characterize the atmospheric physics during frost formation episodes| to understand the frequency and the type of risk and to develop the most suitable protection practices. Energy balance and soil radiation balance are reported together with the main atmospheric features (air turbulence included)| and the data-set collected are verified against the similarity equations. The computation of the surface roughness and the friction velocity| fundamental to the definition of the distinctive features of the site| has been also done by applying the similarity theory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5810,2002,2,4,Meteorological conditions associated with sea surges in Venice: A 40 year climatology,The frequency of sea surges in Venice has increased during the 20th century| and the trend has been particularly pronounced in the last four decades. However| the time series of independent surge events (i.e. events separated by at least I week) has remained nearly stationary during that period. This suggests that| although the sea level rise (due to global warming and human activity in the region) is leading to more multiple events| the frequency of meteorological conditions that trigger independent events seems to be nearly balancing the effects of sea level change. Such meteorological conditions are identified by compositing sea level pressure (SLP) and 995 hPa wind during and before independent sea surge events in Venice. The composite analysis shows that these correspond to storms orographically induced over the western Mediterranean basin| when an Atlantic synoptic system is perturbed by the Pyrenees and/or the Alps. It is| however| the persistence| intensity and relative position of such storms to the Adriatic Sea that contribute to the optimum conditions for the occurrence of floodings in its northern embayment. It is shown that the synoptic picture is translated into persistent low SLP over the Venice region| negative north-south SLP gradient over the Adriatic| and south-southeasterly to southeasterly wind over the central and northern parts of the sea. During the 40 year period under analysis| the persistence and intensity of the most adverse scenarios for the occurrence of sea surges in Venice have been generally decreasing; significant trends have been found in the tails of the distributions of Venice SLP| SLP north-south gradient| and of surface wind over the northern Adriatic. It is the balance between these trends and the continuing sea level rise that may account for the near-stationarity of independent sea surge events during the last four decades. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. 2865,2002,5,4,Methane hydrate in the global organic carbon cycle,The global occurrence of methane hydrate in outer continental margins and in polar regions| and the magnitude of the amount of methane sequestered in methane hydrate suggest that methane hydrate is an important component in the global organic carbon cycle. Various versions of this cycle have emphasized the importance of methane hydrate| and in the latest version the role of methane hydrate is considered to be analogous to the workings of an electrical circuit. In this circuit the methane hydrate is a condenser and the consequences of methane hydrate dissociation are depicted as a resistor and inductor| reflecting temperature change and changes in earth surface history. These consequences may have implications for global change including global climate change. 5745,2002,2,4,Methane-limited methanotrophy in tidal freshwater swamps,[1] We investigated the relationship between CH4 production and oxidation in two tidal freshwater wetland forests in order to determine whether CH4 oxidation efficiency was limited by O-2 or CH4. Methane oxidation was measured in situ over a 16-month period with bi-monthly applications of the inhibitor CH3F. Oxidation consumed 52 +/- 10 and 81 +/- 9% of diffusive CH4 emissions on the two sites. Methane oxidation rates were linearly related to gross CH4 emissions on both sites (r(2) = 0.96)| demonstrating the process was CH4-limited. This interpretation is consistent with the fact that the apparent activation energies for the potential CH4 production and oxidation differed by <4 kJ mol(-1). Apparent activation energies calculated from field emissions data were also similar for the two processes. The high CH4 oxidation efficiency on these sites may be attributed to relatively low rates of methane production| a deep oxidizing zone (5-10 cm)| and low cover of understory vegetation capable of CH4 transport. If our results are typical of forested wetlands| CH4 oxidation efficiency in forested wetlands will not change in response to soil warming. 5808,2002,5,4,Microfacies| sequence stratigraphy and clay mineralogy of a condensed deep-water section around the Frasnian/Famennian boundary (Steinbruch Schmidt| Germany),A multidisciplinary analysis (microfacies| sequential stratigraphy and clay mineralogy) was made on Frasnian/Famennian (F/F) boundary strata of the Steinbruch Schmidt section in Western Germany. Three major microfacies are recognised. Their succession records a shallowing-upward evolution from deep| quiet and poorly oxygenated environments| below the storm wave base| to environments influenced by Current activities close to the storm wave base. The Kellwasser Horizons correspond to the deepest microfacies. The shallowest microfacies correspond to fine-grained calcareous tempestites or turbidites coming from a distant shelf of northwest Germany. The sequential pattern through the F/F boundary shows the succession of seven systems tracts. Two sequence boundaries are located just above the Lower Kellwasser Horizon and at the F/F boundary itself. These are underlined by hardgrounds suggesting time gaps. The Kellwasser Horizons correspond to sea-level highstands and the overlying beds record a transition from lowstand to transgressive systems tracts. Illite| and kaolinite are the dominant clay minerals associated with mixed layers and traces of chlorite. Illite abundance is maximal during Kellwasser Horizons. Illite and kaolinite were probably inherited from a highly weathered source area although part of the illite is diagenetic. Kaolinite is the second most abundant clay mineral and is particularly well represented (up to 50%) between the Kellwasser Horizons. An unusual clay assemblage of illite and mixed layers is associated with a bentonite layer. Kaolinite increases during times when thin tempestites or turbiditic microbioclastic layers come from a distant shelf during sea-level falls. The kaolinite percentage reaches its maximum at the top of the lowstand systems tract. The high percentage of kaolinite suggests a hot wet climate and could be related to global warming. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5757,2002,3,3,Minimum mass solar shield for terrestrial climate control,The use of a large solar shield located sunward of the Sun-Earth interior Lagrange point is considered to offset increases in mean global surface temperature due to enhanced greenhouse warming. The three-body mechanics of the problem are investigated to optimize the shield location| thus minimizing the shield mass and improving on previous studies of this concept. While shield mass is minimized| the required mass is still of order 10(11) kg to offset an enhancement of greenhouse warming of order 2 K. Clearly| such schemes require significant technological capabilities| although the optimization presented in this paper reduces the scale of the problem to some extent. 5824,2002,3,4,Mitigating global warming: traditional versus alternative approaches in a planning versus a market context,Economic efficiency tends to be an important argument when different means of enviromental control are assessed and suggested. Considering that the most cost-efficient means are not the ones most frequently chosen and used| some other qualities seem to play an equally important role. I use findings front organisational theory and negotiation theory to better Understand what is concealed in the black-box of decision-making and implementation. My empirical material consists of case studies of four different means of environmental control used in Sweden during the 1990s to mitigate the threat of global warming. These are tin enviromnental tax| a licensing trial| municipal energy planning| and technology procurement. Each represents a particular discipline (economic| legal| physical planning| or technological) in which a context (planning or market) and an approach (traditional relay race or alternative process-oriented) are combined. Although each means has its particular niche| some qualities stand out as superior. Such means need to be divisible in space as well as in tinge. It is then easier to get started. Since it is just its easy to deviate from| rather than adhere to| the predetermined course after a while| some incentive must be given to the person in charge of implementation. In other words| the classic proverb of using sticks and carrots is still valid although it is not always taken to heart and practised. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5894,2002,3,2,Mitigating the rate and extent of global warming,Mitigation| in the sense of slowing the rate of CO2 emission| can reduce the rate of rise of CO2 and global warming and limit peak CO2 concentration and global warming. However| it will have little effect on the near steady state CO2 concentration and corresponding global warming achieved on a millennial timescale once emissions are negligible and the added carbon has been distributed between the ocean| atmosphere and land. Using a simple model with mid-range climate sensitivity| we estimate that the maximum rate of global warming can be limited to <0.2degreesC/decade by limiting the rate of increase in fossil fuel emissions this century to <0.03 GtC/yr/yr. However| regardless of the emissions pathway| if the known fossil fuel resource of similar to4000 GtC is emitted| CO2 will reach similar to1000 ppmv and the Earth will be warmed by >5degreesC by the end of the millennium. The more carbon emitted| the greater the fraction that remains in the atmosphere| because of positive feedbacks in the carbon cycle-climate system. Less carbon must be emitted to lessen eventual warming. Early consideration should therefore be given to leaving a fraction of fossil carbon unused| and/or to carbon capture and storage. 5821,2002,3,3,Mitigation of N(2)O emissions from grassland by nitrification inhibitor and Actilith F2 applied with fertilizer and cattle slurry,Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) is involved in both ozone destruction and global warming. In agricultural soils it is produced by nitrification and denitrification mainly after fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors have been proposed as one of the management tools for the reduction of the potential hazards of fertilizer-derived N(2)O. Addition of nitrification inhibitors to fertilizers maintains soil N in ammonium form| thereby gaseous N losses by nitrification and denitrification are less likely to occur and there is increased N utilization by the sward. We present a study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide (DCD) and of the slurry additive Actilith F2 on N(2)O emissions following application of calcium ammonium nitrate or cattle slurry to a mixed clover/ryegrass sward in the Basque Country. The results indicate that large differences in N(2)O emission occur depending on fertilizer type and the presence or absence of a nitrification inhibitor. There is considerable scope for immediate reduction of emissions by applying DCD with calcium ammonium nitrate or cattle slurry. DCD| applied at 25 kg ha(-1)| reduced the amount of N lost as N(2)O by 60% and 42% when applied with cattle slurry and calcium ammonium nitrate| respectively. Actilith F2 did not reduce N(2)O emissions and it produced a long lasting mineralization of previously immobilized added N. 2950,2002,4,1,Modeling future climate changes: certainties and uncertainties,Since the middle of the nineteenth century the composition of the Earth atmosphere has begun to change in a manner which is unprecedented over the Quaternary era. The carbon dioxide concentration| for example had been oscillating between extremal values of 180 ppm (during glaciations) and 280 ppm (during interglacial eras). It had stayed almost constant over the last 10 000 years| but has now reached a value of 360 ppm| much of the increase taking place during the last decades. Similarly methane concentration has been multiplied by more than a factor 2| and other gases (nitrous oxides) have also experienced an exponential growth. There is no doubt that this situation is the result of human activities : energy consumption| industrial or agricultural activities| deforestation. As most of these gases have a long residence time in the atmosphere| where they tend to accumulate| we may expect the level of these perturbations to increase strongly throughout the 21st century. To diagnose the possible impact of these trends in terms of climate impact| the only available tools are numerical models. These numerical models constitute in a way virtural planets| where the atmospheric and oceanic flow| the continental hydrology| and their interactions| are represented through physical equations. Models are not a perfect representation of the Earth system| and they will never be. We also cannot expect the climate system to be fully predictable. But models are strongly constrained by conservation equations| they behave in many aspects like the real planet and reproduce quite realistically the mean geographical and seasonal fluctuations of the precipitation| the temperature or the winds as well as some of the most important natural fluctuations at intraseasonal or interannual (El Nino| North Atlantic Oscillation) time scales. So models are useful to describe a range of possible future climates Present projections indicate in all cases| a significant change| with a global surface warming in 2 100 between 2degreesC and 6degreesC : half of the uncertainty is due to the economic projections| half is due to the complex behavior of the climate system (in particular : clouds). It is striking that the lower bound of these estimates already represents an important perturbation. The changes in temperature would induce changes in precipitation rates or areas| in storminess or cyclone tracks - the regional consequences are however difficult to predict in details. We may expect the sea level to rise from 20 to 90 cm. Changes in a more distant future (2 centuries) might be much larger| although such projections are less reliable. An important feature of the changes to come may be their partially unpredictable character : many of the local events accompanying a global climate change will arise as surprises. In that sense the rate of change will be the primary factor of danger. And if it is probably too late to stop climate modification| there is still time to favor a situation where adaptation to its impacts will be easier. 2898,2002,4,4,Modeling regional carbon dynamics and soil erosion in disturbed and rehabilitated ecosystems as affected by land use and climate,The quantification of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in ecosystems is important for (a) understanding changes in ecosystem structure and function with changes in land use| (b) determining the sustainability of ecosystems| and (c) balancing the global C budget as it relates to global climate change. A meso-scale study was conducted to determine regional effects of climate change on C and N cycling within disturbed ecosystems. Objectives of the research were to quantify (a) sediment yield| (b) current C storage in vegetation and soils| and (c) soil C efflux from both abandoned and rehabilitated coal surface-mined lands in Ohio. A dynamic model was developed to simulate sediment yield| grassland production| and C and N cycling on surface-mined lands. Evaluation of plant production and soil erosion submodels with data sets from surface-mined lands in the mid-western U.S. resulted in r(2) values of 0.99 and 0.97| respectively. Depending on the initial values of soil organic carbon (SOC)| model simulations estimated that unvegetated surface-mined lands in Ohio yield approximately 441|325 Mg yr(-1) of sediment and emit between 2|000-20|000 Mg yr(-1) of C to the atmosphere from decomposition of SOC. While rehabilitated lands had a higher C efflux rate than barren lands| a positive C sequestration rate of 18.4 Mg km(-2) yr (-1) was estimated as a result of organic matter additions. This sequestion rate increased considerably under projected climate change scenarios| while it decreased when simulated rehabilitated grasslands were harvested for hay. Changes in land use and cover can cause surface-mined lands to be either a net sink or source for C. Successful rehabilitation of mined lands can decrease erosion and promote soil C sequestration| while at the same time providing additional lands for the management of natural resources. 5816,2002,2,3,Modeling studies on the changes of the Subtropical High over the Western Pacific during the last 100 years,Intensity index series of Subtropical High over the Western Pacific was constructed according to modeling results by using of CCM3.6 atmospheric model with climatologically SST forcing for 30 years| and with observed SST forcing from 1900 to 2000. The index series constructed by modeling closely correlated to the observations for 19511999 (c.c. 0.72) and to the statistically reconstructed one for 1900-1950 (c.c. 0.51). The index series for 1900-1999 showed significant 80 a and 40 a periodicity. A minimum of persistence in seasonal variations of the index occurred in Autumn| which was called "Autumn Barrier". It may relate to the "Spring Barrier"| found in the seasonal variations of SST over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. The increasing trend shown in the index series for the 20th century may associate with the global warming caused by enhancement of greenhouse effect. 2859,2002,2,3,Modeling the effects of global climatic change at the ecotone of boreal larch forest and temperate forest in Northeast China,The dynamics of the forest at the ecotone of the boreal forest and temperate forest in Northeast China were simulated using the adapted gap model BKPF under global climatic change (GFDL scenario) and doubled CO2 concentrations at 50 years in the future. The response of tree species and species with similar biological characteristics under global climate change and double CO2 concentrations were based on biophysical limits of the tree species in the area and their biological competition. The results showed that after 50 years the stand density and LAI (leaf area index) of the forest growing from a clear-cut would not be significantly different from those under current conditions. Stand productivity would increase about 7%| and stand aboveground biomass would increase 15%. However| the stand density of the current mature forest would be reduced by more than 20%. The stand would be dominated by Quercus mongolica Fisch.| Populus davidiana Dode.| Betula spp. and other broadleaved tree species| and Quercus mongolica would account for about 50% of the total density. The stand biomass would be reduced by more than 90%. Quercus mongolica would comprise about 57% of the total stand biomass. The stand productivity would not change significantly| but it would be comprised mainly of Quercus mongolica| Populus davidiana| Betula spp. The current stand height would decrease slightly. The stand LAI would decline dramatically| moreover| Quercus mongolica would comprise about 50% of the stand LAI. 2879,2002,2,3,Modelling regional responses by marine pelagic ecosystems to global climate change,Current coupled ocean-atmosphere model (COAM) projections of future oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake suggest reduced rates due to surface warming| enhanced stratification| and slowed thermohaline overturning. Such models rely on simple| bulk biogeochemical parameterisations| whereas recent ocean observations indicate that floristic shifts may be induced by climate variability| are widespread| complex| and directly impact biogeochemical cycles. We present a strategy to incorporate ecosystem function in COAM's and to evaluate the results in relation to region-specific ecosystem dynamics and interannual variability using a template of oceanic biogeographical provinces. Illustrative simulations for nitrogen fixers with an off-line multi-species| functional group model suggest significant changes by the end of this century in ecosystem structure| with some of the largest regional impacts caused by shifts in the areal extent of biomes. 5826,2002,4,4,New observational evidence for global warming from satellite,[1] Accurate measurements of surface radiative temperature| i.e. skin temperature| would be more directly interpretable in terms of the surface response to increase of greenhouse gases than the more conventional screen temperatures. Such measurements have not previously been attempted because of the difficulties of converting existing observations into a meaningful measurement. We have developed procedures for removing the effects of changing satellite orbits and cloud contamination from skin temperatures estimated from AVHRR channels 4 and 5| and so provide a first estimate of the trends of land surface skin temperature over the last two decades. The estimated land temperature increase is not only much greater than that for the atmosphere but also apparently somewhat larger than the estimates of surface air temperature increase from in situ measurement. 2933,2002,3,3,New renewable energy developments and the climate change issue: a case study of Norwegian politics,It is widely agreed that the search for cleaner energy technologies is central to any long-term response to the threat of global climate change. Many countries are thus promoting the adoption of new renewable energy (NRE) sources and technologies within the context of energy and climate change policies. The scope of this paper is to unfold linkages between public policies and NRE developments using Norway as a case in point. The aims are firstly to assess the impacts of policy design and public priorities in terms of technology and industrial development dynamics| and secondly to discuss the role attributed to the climate change issue. The primary conclusion is that in spite of long-lasting public efforts| NRE sources represent only a pitiable fraction of the energy produced| delivered| and consumed in Norway. and only modest industrial development dynamics have taken place. Among the most important reasons for this poor outcome tire (i) weak demand-side policies| (ii) fluctuating patterns in public priorities. and (iii) low electricity prices. The Norwegian experience substantiates claims that effective public strategies should be firmly based upon long-term commitments. employ a combination of policies and measures conducive to technical change and innovation. and be capable of guarding against path dependence. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 2890,2002,3,3,Nitrous oxide emissions from an ultisol of the humid tropics under maize-groundnut rotation,Nitrous oxide (N2O) contributes to global climate change and agricultural soils seem to be the major source. Lack of information led to this study on the influence of different amounts and sources of nitrogen on N2O emission from a maize (Zea mays L.)-groundnut (Arachis hypogae L.) crop rotation in an Ultisol of the humid tropics. The treatments were: inorganic N + crop residues (NC)| inorganic N only (RN)| and half of inorganic N + crop residues + chicken manure (NCM). The corresponding amount of N applied was 322| 180| and 400 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)| respectively. The N2O emissions depended on the amounts and types of N. A maximum peak (9889 +/- 2106 muLg N2O-N m(-2) d(-1)) was detected at 2 wk before maize sowing amended with chicken manure| showing a persistent influence on N transformations and N2O release. The mineral N from either applied source became low by 2 to 4 wk| coinciding with the small N2O fluxes or its consumption to a few isolated instances. The N2O flux significantly correlated with the mineral N and water-filled pore spaces. The direct annual N2O emission was 3.94 +/- 0.23| 1.90 +/- 0.08| and 1.41 +/- 0.07 kg N2O-N ha(-1) from the NCM| NC| and RN treatments| respectively. The corresponding N2O-N loss of the applied N plus N fixed by groundnut was 0.83|0.49| and 0.59%. Overestimations of direct annual N2O emission using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology suggest a location-specific emission factor for variable N sources to be considered. 2848,2002,2,4,No evidence for adaptation of two Polygonum viviparum morphotypes of different bulbil characteristics to length of growing season: abundance| biomass and germination,The high degree of habitat heterogeneity and habitat fragmentation in arctic ecosystems may support a high genotypic and ecotypic variability. This may buffer the survival of plant species threatened by global climate change| which affects the Arctic more strongly than other ecosystems. Here| we assessed if two morphotypes of Polygonum viviparum (characterised by different colours of their bulbils) differ in their abundance along a snowmelt gradient| if their biomass allocation patterns are influenced differentially by environmental variables| and if the temperature dependency of bulbil germination differs between morphotypes. We found slight differences in the effect of timing of snowmelt on abundance of the morphotypes| which seem to have little ecological relevance. Total biomass and biomass allocation were similar between morphotypes and were negatively correlated with soil-water content. Bulbil germination (the onset of growth of the bulbil) was assessed over a temperature range from 2 to 25 C and results indicate an earlier (maximum of 5 days) "germination" of one morphotype| but final bulbil germination (> 80%) and bulbil-germination rate were similar for both types. Bulbil germination was weakly temperature dependent| with faster emergence at higher temperatures. Overall| our results could provide no convincing evidence for differences between the two examined morphotypes that could be of ecological relevance with respect to anticipated climate change in the Arctic. 5920,2002,2,4,Nutrient loading and retention in lakes of the Jorka river system (Masurian Lakeland| Poland): Seasonal and long-term variation,The nutrient (TP| N-NO3| TKN - Kjeldhal nitrogen) loading to lakes (from river| precipitation| direct catchment) and in-lake retention were calculated for five successive lakes of the river-lake system typical of the mosaic| hilly lake-land region (the Jorka system| Masurian Lakeland). The annual values of loading for TP and TN were mostly not higher than 1.0 and 15.0 g m(-2) lake area| respectively and rather low compared to other river-lake systems in the lakeland region. However| these values as well as nutrient in-lake retention decreased in 1997-1998 (warm and dry years) compared with 1978 and 1996| together with the decrease in discharge and exchange rate of lake water. In selected cases the retention of TP and TKN became negative which means that the lake functioned as the source of nutrients for downstream fragments of the system. The retention of nitrate-nitrogen was usually positive - lakes remained effective sites for its removal (denitrification). The possible changes in functioning of small catchments and chains of shallow| eutrophic lakes under the conditions of global warming are discussed. 5751,2002,4,4,Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming,[1] Arctic variability is dominated by multi-decadal fluctuations. Incomplete sampling of these fluctuations results in highly variable arctic surface-air temperature (SAT) trends. Modulated by multi-decadal variability| SAT trends are often amplified relative to northern-hemispheric trends| but over the 125-year record we identify periods when arctic SAT trends were smaller or of opposite sign than northern-hemispheric trends. Arctic and northern-hemispheric air-temperature trends during the 20th century (when multi-decadal variablity had little net effect on computed trends) are similar| and do not support the predicted polar amplification of global warming. The possible moderating role of sea ice cannot be conclusively identified with existing data. If long-term trends are accepted as a valid measure of climate change| then the SAT and ice data do not support the proposed polar amplification of global warming. Intrinsic arctic variability obscures long-term changes| limiting our ability to identify complex feedbacks in the arctic climate system. 2937,2002,4,3,Observed and projected climate change in Taiwan,This study examined the secular climate change characteristics in Taiwan over the past 100 years and the relationship with the global climate change. Estimates for the likelihood Of future climate changes in Taiwan were made based on the projection from the IPCC climate models. In the past 100 years| Taiwan experienced an island-wide warming trend (1.0-1.4degreesC/100 years). Both the annual and daily temperature ranges have also increased. The warming|e-scale circulation in Taiwan is closely connected to a large-scale circulation and SAT fluctuations| such as the "cool ocean warm land" phenomenon. The water vapor pressure has increased significantly and could have resulted in a larger temperature increase in summer. The probability for the occurrence of high temperatures has increased and the result suggests that both (fie mean and variance in the SAT in Taiwan have changed significantly since the beginning of the 20th century. Although| as a whole| the precipitation in Taiwan has shown a tendency to increase in northern Taiwan and to decrease in southern Taiwan in the past 100 years| it exhibits a more complicated spatial pattern. The changes occur mainly in either the dry or rainy season and result in an enhanced seasonal cycle. The changes in temperature and precipitation are consistent with the weakening of the East Asian monsoon. Under consideration of both the warming effect from greenhouse gases and the cooling effect from aerosols| all projections from climate models indicated a warmer climate near Taiwan in the future. The projected increase in the area-mean temperature near Taiwan ranged from 0.9-2.7degreesC relative to the 1961-1990 averaged temperature| when the CO2 concentration increased to 1.9 times the 1961-1990 level. These simulated temperature increases were statistically significant and can be attributed to the radiative forcing associated with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols. The projected changes in precipitation were within the range of natural variability for all five models. There is no evidence supporting the possibility of precipitation changes near Taiwan based on the simulations from five IPCC climate models. 5701,2002,2,4,Observed changes in seasons: An overview,Within the last decade the study of phonology has taken on a new legitimacy in the area of climate change research. A growing literature reveals that a change in the timing of natural events is occurring in a wide range of locations and affecting a wide tango of species. Changes in spring have been those most commonly reported| with the emphasis on an advance in spring linked to an increase in temperature. Detection of change in autumn is hampered by a smaller pool of available data| events that are harder to define (such as leaf coloration)| and various influencing environmental factors triggering autumnal phases. Despite this| the general pattern may be towards a delay in autumn. Plant| animal and abiotic responses| especially in spring| are quite similar. Thus| it would appear that winter is being squeezed at both ends| and this effect| of increasing the growing season| should become more pronounced in the face of predicted global warming. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. 2850,2002,2,4,Odonata records from Nayarit and Sinaloa| Mexico| with comments on natural history and biogeography,Although the odon. fauna of the Mexican state of Nayarit has been considered well-known| a 7-day visit there in Sept. 2001 resulted in records of 21 spp. new for the state| bringing the state total to 120 spp.| fifth highest in Mexico. Records from a 2-day visit in Aug. 1965 are also listed| many of them the first specific localities published for Nayarit| and the first records of 2 spp. from Sinaloa are also listed. The biology of most neotropical spp. is poorly known| so natural-history notes are included for many spp. A storm-induced aggregation and a large roost of dragonflies is described. The odon. fauna of Nayarit consists of 2 primary elements: a large number of neotropical spp. reaching their northern known limits| and a montane fauna of the drier Mexican Plateau. At least 57 spp. of tropical origin reach their northern distribution in the western Mexican lowlands in or N of Nayarit| and these limits must be more accurately defined to detect the changes in distribution that may be taking place with global climate change. 5895,2002,2,4,On climatic fluctuations and environmental changes of the Indo-Gangetic Plains| India,Paralleling the Southern Himalayan Province| the Indo-Gangetic Plains region (IGPR) of India (geographical area similar to6|00|000 km(2)) is very important for the food security of South Asia. Due to numerous factors in operation there is widespread apprehension regarding sustainability of fragile ecosystems of the region. Literature provides detailed documentation of environmental changes due to different factors except climatic. The present study is intended to document the instrumental-period fluctuations of important climatic parameters like rainfall amounts (1829-1999)| severe rainstorms (1880-1996) and temperature (1876-1997) exclusively for the IGPR. The summer monsoon rainfall over western IGPR shows increasing trend (170 mm/100-yr| significant at 1% level) from 1900 while over central IGPR it shows decreasing trend (5 mm/100-yr| not significant) from 1939 and over eastern IGPR decreasing trend (50 mm/100-yr| not significant) during 1900-1984 and insignificant increasing trend (480 mm/100-yr| not significant) during 1984-1999. Broadly it is inferred that there has been a westward shift in rainfall activities over the IGPR. Analysis suggests westward shift in the occurrence of severe rainstorms also. These spatial changes in rainfall activities are attributed to global warming and associated changes in the Indian summer monsoon circulation and the general atmospheric circulation. The annual surface air temperature of the IGPR showed rising trend (0.53degreesC/100-yr| significant at 1% level) during 1875-1958 and decreasing trend (-0.93degreesC/100-yr| significant at 5% level) during 1958-1997. The post-1958 period cooling of the IGPR seems to be due to expansion and intensification of agricultural activities and spreading of irrigation network in the region. Lateral shift in the river courses is an environmental hazard of serious concern in the IGPR. In the present study it is suggested that meteorologic factors like strength and direction of low level winds and spatial shift in rainfall/climatic belt also play a significant role along with tectonic disturbances and local sedimentological adjustments in the vagrancy of the river courses over the IGPR. 5838,2002,2,4,On the adaptability of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) to the projected change of climate in Germany,It has been predicted that in the coming decades the global climate will get warmer and in some regions dryer. Global warming may influence the genetic structure of forest tree populations. This paper presents a simulation study on possible effects of an increasing annual mean temperature and decreasing precipitation during the growing season on the genetic structure characterised by inventories of six isozyme gene loci in provenance trials of Norway spruce (Pirea abies (L.) Karst.). The data for parameterising the model were taken from a trial on 25-year-old Norway spruce. From the data a virtual stand was generated to simulate growth over a period of 75 years at seven sites with varying environmental conditions. The tree growth simulator SILVA 2.2 was run with two scenarios (I. natural mortality only; II. natural mortality and thinning from above). The results of the simulation runs were linked with the isozyme data of the trees as investigated in the trees that were selected for generating the virtual population. In the simulated populations at the age of 100 allele and genotype frequencies were determined. Based on the isozyme data calculations of various measures of genetic multiplicity| heterozygosity| genetic diversity| and genetic differentiation were performed for each simulation run. At the age of 100 years three growth parameters|how large differentiation between sites. Such a separation cannot be found for the genetic parameters as assessed by isozyme gene markers. However| most of the eight genetic parameters differ between sites. Significant differences arc calculated for four genetic parameters in scenario I and for six genetic parameters in scenario II. This result obtained by a new approach| calls for additional studies where more initial populations with different characteristics are tested in various scenarios and with different types of markers. 5933,2002,5,3,On the nature of methane gas-hydrate dissociation during the Toarcian and Aptian oceanic anoxic events,The magnitude and timing of a major rapid negative carbon-isotope excursion recorded in marine and terrestrial matter through the Early Toarcian (Early Jurassic) and Early Aptian (Early Cretaceous) oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) have been proposed to be the result of large methane gas-hydrate dissociation events. Here| we develop and evaluate a global carbon-isotope mass-balance approach for determining the responses of each component of the exogenic carbon cycle (terrestrial biosphere| atmosphere and ocean). The approach includes a dynamic response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to methane-related CO(2) increases and climatic warming. Our analyses support the idea that both the Early Toarcian and Early Aptian isotopic curves were indicative of large episodic methane releases (similar to5000 and similar to3000 Gt respectively) promoting warm 'greenhouse' conditions in the Mesozoic. These events are calculated to have increased the atmospheric CO(2) concentration by similar to900 and similar to600 ppmv respectively and land surface temperatures by 2.5degrees to 3.0degreesC. However| we show that much of the methane released from oceanic sediments is rapidly sequestered by terrestrial and marine components in the global carbon cycle| and this effect strongly attenuated the potential for ancient methane gas-hydrate dissociation events to act as major amplifiers in global warming. An increase in oceanic carbon sequestration is consistent with the deposition of globally distributed black shales during these OAEs. Our analyses point to the urgent need for high-resolution marine and terrestrial carbon-isotope records to better characterize the nature of the Toarcian and Aptian events and improve our interpretation of their consequences for the global carbon cycle. 5749,2002,3,3,Optimizing grain yields reduces CH4 emissions from rice paddy fields,Microbial production in anoxic wetland rice soils is a major source of atmospheric CH4| the most important non-CO2 greenhouse gas. Much higher CH4 emissions from well managed irrigated rice fields in the wet than in the dry season could not be explained by seasonal differences in temperature. We hypothesized that high CH4 emissions in the wet season are caused by low grain to biomass ratios. In a screenhouse experiment| removing spikelets to reduce the plants' capacity to store photosynthetically fixed C in grains increased CH4 emissions| presumably via extra C inputs to the soil. Unfavorable conditions for spikelet formation in the wet season may similarly explain high methane emissions. The observed relationship between reduced grain filling and CH4 emission provides opportunities to mitigate CH4 emissions by optimizing rice productivity. 2851,2002,5,4,Oxygen isotope evidence for progressive uplift of the Cascade Range| Oregon,Oxygen isotope compositions of fossil equid teeth in the Cascade rainshadow reveal a similar to5parts per thousand decrease in mean delta(18)O since 27 Ma. Isotopic changes are inconsistent with expected effects from global climate change because: (a) the expected isotopic shift to tooth delta(18)O values due to global climate change (similar to1parts per thousand) is much smaller than the observed shift| (b) predicted and observed isotopic trends are opposite for Oligocene vs. Miocene samples| and (c) average compositions and ranges in compositions remained unchanged for samples from before and after major global cooling in the mid-Miocene. Accounting for a decrease in relative humidity of at least 15%| we infer a topographically driven secular shift in the delta(18)O value of rainwater of 6-8parts per thousand since the late Oligocene| which is approximately equivalent to the modem-day difference in delta(18)O values of precipitation and surface waters across the central Cascades. Rise of the central Cascades apparently occurred monotonically over the last 27 Ma| with a hiatus between similar to15.4 and 7.2 Ma| possibly related to eruption of the Columbia River Basalts. Progressive volcanic accumulation over tens of millions of years best explains the data| rather than a short-lived uplift event. Paleoseasonality| as inferred from isotope zoning and intertooth variability| decreased dramatically from 7-9parts per thousand at 15.4-7 Ma to similar to3parts per thousand at 3 Ma| then increased to 6-8parts per thousand today. The cause of the decrease in seasonality at 3 Ma may reflect either brief warming during the mid-Pliocene within the context of global tectonic reorganization| or consumption by equids of water from an isotopically buffered Lake Idaho. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5706,2002,3,4,Partial discharge and breakdown mechanisms in ultra-dilute SF6 and PFC gases mixed with N-2 gas,Because of the high global warming potential of SF6 gas| research on alternative gases for electrical insulation with a lower environmental impact is essential. Gas mixtures composed of electronegative gases and N-2 gas have the advantage of the reduction of the amount of SF6 gas and of utilizing the synergistic effect in electrical insulation performance. We investigated the partial discharge (PD) and breakdown (BD) characteristics of SF6/N-2 and PFC (C3F8/N-2 and C2F6/N-2) gas mixtures under non-uniform electric field conditions| by changing the dilute content of electronegative gases. As a result| the synergistic effect in SF6/N-2 gas mixtures was verified to be higher than that in PFC/N-2 gas mixtures. The physical mechanism from PD inception to BD was discussed with consideration of the difference in electronegativity of SF6 and PFC. gases. Furthermore| we found that PD inception and PD-to-BD mechanisms changed at a content of 10 ppm for SF6 due to the electron attachment activity of SF6 gas. The change in the PD and BD mechanisms in C3F8/N-2 and C2F6/N-2 gas mixtures appeared at 0.1% content for C3F8 and at 1% content for C2F6. 5785,2002,3,4,Performance analysis of polymer-electrolyte water electrolysis cell at a small-unit test cell and performance prediction of large stacked cell,Recently the hydrogen energy system has been proposed as a countermeasure for the depletion of fossil fuel and global warming. The polymer electrolyte electrolysis cell (PEEC) can efficiently produce pure hydrogen under high current density. To design a PEEC properly and to optimize its operating conditions we have measured and analyzed the PEEC performance. Using measured overpotentials we have made a two-dimensional simulation code for PEEC. Calculated results show that the profile of current density and temperature are constant along the water flow direction| because the exothermic heat from overpotentials is almost canceled out by the endothermic heat of both entropy change and evaporation| and by heat transfer to the constant-temperature separators| resulting in a constant water-electrolyzing potential along the flow direction. The current densities measured at a segmented-electrode cell agreed well with the calculated values. By applying this simulation code to a large unit-cell with adiabatic boundary conditions| we have predicted the performance of a large stacked PEEC having an electrode length of 1 m. The predicted cell temperature and current density increase only a little along the flow direction. Under operating conditions with high pressure| the endothermic heat of water evaporation decreases greatly and the cell temperature is apt to increase downstream compared to the atmospheric operation. (C) 2002 The Electrochemical Society. 5800,2002,3,3,Performance evaluation of hybrid (wind/solar/diesel) power systems,Depleting oil and gas reserves| combined with the growing concerns of global warming| have made it inevitable to seek alternative/renewable energy sources. The integration of renewables such as solar and wind energy is becoming increasingly attractive and is being used widely| for substitution of oil-produced energy| and eventually to minimize atmospheric degradation. The literature shows that commercial/residential buildings in Saudi Arabia consume an estimated 10-40% of the total electric energy generated. In the present investigation| hourly wind-speed and solar radiation measurements made at the solar radiation and meteorological monitoring station| Dhahran (26degrees32' N| 50degrees13' E)| Saudi Arabia| have been analyzed to investigate the feasibility of using hybrid (wind+solar+diesel) energy conversion systems at Dhahran to meet the energy needs of twenty 2-bedroom houses. The monthly average wind speeds for Dhahran range from 4|1 to 6.4 m/s. The monthly average daily values of solar radiation for Dhahran range from 3.6 kWh/m(2) to 7.96 kWh/m(2). The performance of hybrid systems consisting of different rated power wind farms| photovoltaic (PV) areas| and storage capacities together with a diesel back-up are presented. The monthly average daily energy generated from the above hybrid system configuration has been presented. The deficit energy generated from the back-up diesel generator and the number of operational hours of the diesel system to meet a specific annual electrical energy demand of 702|358 kWh have also been presented. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2860,2002,4,4,Permafrost science and secondary education: direct involvement of teachers and students in field research,Permafrost and periglacial geomorphology are absent from the science curriculum in most secondary schools in the United States. This is an unfortunate situation given the recent increases in development and environmental concerns in northern latitudes and high-mountain areas| and the interesting examples of basic scientific principles found in the history of research on periglacial geomorphology and permafrost| In 1997 and 1998| a University of Delaware research group studying permafrost and periglacial geomorphology in northern Alaska participated in the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Teachers Experiencing the Antarctic and Arctic (TEA) Program| In each of these years| a high school teacher and a student traveled as part of the research team to the North Slope of Alaska. They learned about the landscape| collected active-layer thickness and temperature measurements| and assisted in data analysis. Results from studies of active-layer thickness variability and ground temperature contributed to a series of long-term observations and international research on the impacts of global climate change. Since their expeditions. the teachers have shared their experiences with their classrooms and communities in several ways| including public lectures and the Internet. Classroom activities are available to the public through the TEA web site (The exchange of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere| biosphere and pedosphere is an important consideration when assessing agricultural and environmental management or policy decisions and their relationship to climate change. Field experimentation is the best way to gather data| but experimental data are specific to the management| soils and climate that represent the research site. Inadequate field data exist to address all management options across all soil types and climates. We have used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change inventory approach to estimate changes in soil carbon storage resulting from various land use and management options. We generate a regional assessment of the relative impact of implementing changes in agricultural management on soil carbon storage. For each agricultural region of the United States| we present an estimated annual change in soil carbon storage for each management option. Results should prove especially useful in evaluating management options and tradeoffs.
2935,2002,2,4,Predicting life-cycle adaptation of migratory birds to global climate change,Analyses of long-term data indicate that human-caused climatic changes are affecting bird phenology in directions consistent with theoretical predictions. Here| we report on recent trends in the timing of spring arrival and egg laying found within a western European Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population. Mean egg laying date has advanced over the past 20 years in this population. The advancement in egg laying date was stronger than the advancement of spring arrival| suggesting that Pied Flycatchers are changing these stages of their annual cycle at different rates. It could be shown that selection for earlier breeding had increased. Hence| the observed adjustment in laying date did not match the advancement of spring. Our findings raise general questions about the adaptability of migratory birds to rapid environmental changes. Adaptive advancement of reproduction in response to increasing spring temperatures and to the concomitant advancement of food supply could be held back| because annual breeding and migration cycles are controlled primarily by endogenous rhythms and photoperiodic cues which do not relate to temperature. Migrants may have several options for arriving earlier on the breeding grounds| including an increase in migration speed| earlier departure from the wintering area or a shortening of migration distance. Changes in migratory behaviour could be accomplished either by phenotypic plasticity or by selection on different genotypes. Although descriptive field data provide compelling evidence for changes in| and possible constraints on| the timing of breeding and migration| their explanatory power in predicting the limits of adaptation remains restricted. We review recent experimental approaches| which explicitly test the relative roles of genetic versus environmental factors in the adaptation of life-cycle timing to global environmental changes. 2902,2002,2,4,Predicting mammal species richness and abundance using multi-temporal NDVI,There is need to map indicators of biodiversity such as species richness and abundance of individuals in order to predict where species loss is occurring. Species richness and abundance have been hypothesized to increase with ecosystem productivity. Moreover| productivity of ecosystems varies in space and time| and this heterogeneity is also hypothesized to influence species richness and abundance of individuals. Ecosystem productivity may be estimated using remotely sensed data| and researchers have specifically proposed the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (AVHRR-NDVI). Interannual average NDVI and its variability (standard deviation) were correlated with large mammal species richness and abundance of individuals at a landscape scale in Kenya. The biodiversity indicators associated negatively with interannual average NDVI and positively with variability of NDVI. Understanding these relationships can help in estimating changes in mammalian species richness and abundance in response to global climate change. 5900,2002,2,4,Prediction of a geographical shift in the prevalence of rice stripe virus disease transmitted by the small brown planthopper| Laodelphax striatellus (Fallen) (Hemiptera : Delphacidae)| under global warming,Global warming may affect crop damage caused by insect pest| by changing the degree of synchronization between pest occurrence and the susceptible stage of crops. The epidemiological system of rice stripe virus disease (RSV disease) transmitted by the small brown planthopper| Laodelphax striatellus (Fallen)| is greatly influenced by synchronization| because the susceptible stage for virus infection is within several weeks after transplanting. We calculated how the area potentially vulnerable to RSV disease will change under future global warming by using the results of the Global Climate Model (GCM) experiments reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For simplicity| assuming that rice seedlings are transplanted from May to June| we made a map| in which the number of generations of the small brown planthopper on June 1 was plotted by calculating the effective cumulative temperature. The influence of solar radiation was also considered in this calculation. We judged that the area located near the boundary of generations is potentially vulnerable to disease prevalence| because planthoppers are in the adult stage there. Generation maps indicated that the Tohoku and Hokuriku districts| which are major districts of rice production in Japan| might be potentially vulnerable to disease infection under future global warming. 2886,2002,2,4,Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change,Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs)| using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation| sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition| simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models| and is specific to the climate change scenario used. 5760,2002,2,4,Present state and future of the world's mangrove forests,Mangroves| the only woody halophytes living at the confluence of land and sea| have been heavily used traditionally for food| timber| fuel and medicine| and presently occupy about 181 000 km(2) of tropical and subtropical coastline. Over the past 50 years| approximately one-third of the world's mangrove forests have been lost| but most data show very variable loss rates and there is considerable margin of error in most estimates. Mangroves are a valuable ecological and economic resource| being important nursery grounds and breeding sites for birds| fish| crustaceans| shellfish| reptiles and mammals; a renewable source of wood; accumulation sites for sediment| contaminants| carbon and nutrients; and offer protection against coastal erosion. The destruction of mangroves is usually positively related to human population density. Major reasons for destruction are urban development| aquaculture| mining and overexploitation for timber| fish| crustaceans and shellfish. Over the next 25 years| unrestricted clear felling| aquaculture| and overexploitation of fisheries will be the greatest threats| with lesser problems being alteration of hydrology| pollution and global warming. Loss of biodiversity is| and will continue to be| a severe problem as even pristine mangroves are species-poor compared with other tropical ecosystems. The future is not entirely bleak. The number of rehabilitation and restoration projects is increasing worldwide with some countries showing increases in mangrove area. The intensity of coastal aquaculture appears to have levelled off in some parts of the world. Some commercial projects and. economic models indicate that mangroves can be used as a sustainable resource| especially for wood. The brightest note is that the rate of population growth is projected to slow during the next 50 years| with a gradual decline thereafter to the end of the century. Mangrove forests will continue to be exploited at current rates to 2025| unless they are seen as a valuable resource to be managed on a sustainable basis. After 2025| the future of mangroves will depend on technological and ecological advances in multi-species silviculture| genetics| and forestry modelling| but the greatest hope for their future is for a reduction in human population growth. 5942,2002,3,4,Pressure-mole fraction phase diagrams for CO2-pure water system under temperatures and pressures corresponding to ocean waters at depth to 3000 m,Pressure-mole fraction phase diagrams for the CO2-water system at temperatures between 278.15 and 298.15 K and pressures up to 30 MPa| which correspond to those of ocean waters at depths to 3000 m| are developed based on the literature data and experimental results obtained by the authors. The resultant phase diagrams can serve as a basis for analyzing the phase behavior of liquid CO2 and CO2 hydrate disposed of in the ocean as a means to mitigate global warming. 2922,2002,2,3,Production of allergenic pollen by ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is increased in CO(2)-enriched atmospheres,Background: The potential effects of global climate change on allergenic pollen production are still poorly understood. Objective: To study the direct impact of rising atmospheric CO(2) concentrations on ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) pollen production and growth. Methods: In environmentally controlled greenhouses| stands of ragweed plants were grown from seed through flowering stages at both ambient and twice-ambient CO(2) levels (350 vs 700 muL L(-1)). Outcome measures included stand-level total pollen production and end-of-season measures of plant mass|| height| and seed production. Results: A doubling of the atmospheric CO(2) concentration stimulated ragweed-pollen production by 61% (P = 0.005). Conclusions: These results suggest that there may be significant increases in exposure to allergenic pollen under the present scenarios of global warming. Further studies may enable public health groups to more accurately evaluate the future risks of hay fever and respiratory diseases (eg| asthma) exacerbated by allergenic pollen| and to develop strategies to mitigate them. 2869,2002,2,4,Projecting impacts of global climate change on the US forest and agriculture sectors and carbon budgets,A multiperiod| regional| mathematical programming model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change scenarios on the US forest and agricultural sectors| including impacts on forest carbon inventories. Four scenarios of the biological response of forests to climate change (reflected by changes in forest growth rates) are drawn from a national assessment of climate change and are based on combinations of global circulation and ecological process models. These scenarios are simulated in the forest and agricultural sector model and results are summarized to characterize broad impacts of climate change on the sectors. We find that less cropland is projected to be converted to forests| forest inventories generally increase| and that aggregate economic impacts (across all consumers and producers in the sector) are relatively small. Producers' income is most at risk| and impacts of global climate change on the two sectors vary over the 100-year projection period. The forest sector is found to have adjustment mechanisms that mitigate climate change impacts| including interregional migration of production| substitution in consumption| and altered stand management. 5768,2002,3,3,PSA Peugeot Citroen and biofuels,Biofuels are an essential part of PSA Peugeot Citroen environmental policy| which is itself a major strategic axis for the company- from vehicle production to recycling| from air quality to global warming control| and the development of renewables. Since long PSA has integrated vegetable oil derivatives/biofuels in its activities to reach its global objectives of innovation and growth. In France many vehicle fleets have been running with a blend of normal automotive diesel and biodiesel (30%) for over ten years: none of these has encountered any problem related to the fuel. As a car manufacturer PSA is in favor of biofuels when used in blending with conventional petroleum fuels| gasoline and diesel - an approach that has several advantages: A favorable well-to-wheel CO2 balance (as when growing the plant absorbs some CO2)| which contributes to limit global warming. A complementary source of motor fuel to help reduce crude oil (and diesel) imports. A way to support the agricultural sector (by providing a new outlet for their crops| see set-aside lands). Produced from cereals (corn| maize...) or sugar beet| or from vegetable oil plants like rapeseed| sunflower| or soyabean| biofuels are intrinsically renewable energies. Apart from their particularly favorable well-to-wheel balance| which helps fight against global warming| these fuels allow to reduce exhaust emissions from motor vehicles| notably particulates when using methyl esters derived from vegetable oils. 5863,2002,2,4,Quantifying CO2 fluxes from soil surfaces to the atmosphere,Measurements of CO2 fluxes from ground surface of the atmosphere (soil respiration) are needed to quantify biotic and abiotic reaction rates in unsaturated zones and to gain insight into the importance of these processes on global warming. The use of three techniques (dynamic closed chambers| static chambers| and gradient calculations) to determine soil respiration was assessed by measuring fluxes of microbially produced CO2 from an unsaturated mesocosm (2.4 m dia. x 3.2 m thick) and two unsaturated minicosms (0.58 m dia. x 1.2 m thick)| one maintained at 18-23 degreesC (HT) and the other at 5 degreesC (LT). By injecting known and constant CO2 fluxes into the bottom of the HT minicosm and measuring the resulting fluxes| it was shown that the dynamic closed chamber (DCCS) technique yielded accurate measurements of fluxes over the range observed from natural unsaturated media. Over this same range| results showed that the concentration gradient method yielded reasonable estimates of fluxes but its accuracy was limited by uncertainties in both the concentration gradient and the gaseous diffusion coefficient in the soil atmosphere. The static chamber method underestimated the actual flux at higher CO2 fluxes and when adsorption times of >24 h were used. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2931,2002,4,3,R-134a emissions from vehicles,We report the first study of R-134a (also known as HFC-134a and CF3CFH2) refrigerant leakage from air conditioning (AC) systems of modern vehicles. Twenty-eight light duty vehicles from five manufacturers (Ford| Toyota| Daimler Chrysler| General Motors| and Honda) were tested according to the USEPA (Federal) extended diurnal test procedure using the Sealed Housing for Evaporative Determination (SHED) apparatus. All tests were conducted using stationary vehicles with the motor and air conditioning system turned off. R-134a was measured using gas chromatography (GC) with a flame ionization detector (FID). All vehicles exhibited measurable R-134a leakage over the 2-day diurnal test. Leak rates of R-134a ranged from 0.01 to 0.36 g/day with an average of 0.07 +/- 0.07 g/day. When combined with leakage associated with vehicle operation| servicing| and disposal we estimate that the lifetime average R-134a emission rate from an AC equipped vehicle is 0.41 +/- 0.27 g/day (the majority of emissions are associated with vehicle servicing and disposal). Assuming that the average vehicle travels 10 000 miles per year we Estimate that the global warming impact of R-134a leakage from an AC equipped vehicle is approximately 4-5% of that of the CO2 emitted by the vehicle. The results are discussed with respect to the contribution of vehicle emissions to global climate change. 5947,2002,2,4,Rapid sea-level rise in the Gulf of Maine| USA| since AD 1800,Two sea-level records from salt marshes in coastal Maine are derived from foraminiferal analyses and AAIS C-14| Pb-210| Cs-137 and pollen chronology| Both records cover the period from AD 800 until the present and show corresponding patterns of sea-level change when corrected for trends which could accommodate millennial-scale isostatic adjustments. The records provide a detailed sea-level chronology for the last few centuries and thus link the instrumental (tide-gauge) record with the long-term geological record of sea-level change. Results show that sea level was relatively stable between AD 800 and 1300 and reached a lowstand around AD 1800| which was preceded by an oscillation in the eighteenth century. Since AD 1800| sea levels in the Gulf of Maine have risen by 0.3-0.4 m. The onset of this rise corresponds with regional climatic warming and could be interpreted as thermal expansion of the Gulf of Maine and North Atlantic sea surface. Sea-level rise possibly slowed temporarily during the mid-nineteenth century| but twentieth-century rates are unprecedented in the last millennium and correspond with hemispheric warming. 5836,2002,4,4,RBS analysis of trace gas uptake on ice,Uptake and reaction of acidic trace gases (HCl| HBr| SO2|...) on atmospheric aerosols is of key interest to environmental problems such as ozone depletion and global warming. While the importance of these reactions is well established| the physical mechanisms involved are subject to current research and scientific controversy. The present paper demonstrates the use of Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy (RBS) to profile elements such as bromine and sulfur on ice surfaces and the application of RBS to study liquid sulfuric acid. The experimental chamber needed for these measurements is described in this paper. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5873,2002,2,4,Reactive nitrogen and human health: Acute and long-term implications,Reactive-nitrogen (Nr) has a wide variety of beneficial and detrimental effects on human health. The most important of the beneficial effects are increasing global and regional food supplies and increased nutritional quality of available foods. However| lack of adequate dietary intake of amino acids and proteins is a serious cause of malnutrition when food supplies are inadequate because of poverty| drought| floods| wars| and displacements of people as refugees. There is sufficient| though limited| quantitative data indicating that increased circulation of Nr in the environment is responsible for significant human health effects via other exposure pathways. Nr can lead to harmful health effects from airborne occupational exposures and population-wide indoor and outdoor air pollution exposures to nitrogen dioxide and ozone. Nr can also affect health via water pollution problems| including methemoglobinemia from contaminated ground water| eutrophication causing fish kills and algal blooms that can be toxic to humans| and via global warming. The environmental pollutants stemming from reactive nitrogen are ubiquitous| making it difficult to identify the extent to which Nr exerts a specific health effect. As all populations are susceptible| continued interdisciplinary investigations are needed to determine the extent and nature of the beneficial and harmful effects on human health of nitrogen-related pollutants and their derivatives. 5855,2002,2,4,Realized and potential climate niches: a comparison of four Rhododendron tree species,Aim This study aims to evaluate the hypothesis that there is no difference between the realized and the ex-situ niches of four selected Rhododendron tree species. If the hypothesis is rejected| the aim is: (1) to evaluate whether the magnitude of discrepancy between the two types of niche is related to competition or external constraint| and (2) to identify which niche dimension is expanded (cold and/or warm limits) and to discuss it in relation to the assumption behind the biogeographical projections related to global warming. Location The four target species (Rhododendron arboreum Sm.| R. campanulatum D. Don| R. barbatum Wall.| and R. wallichi Sm.) are common evergreen broad-leaved trees in the central Himalayas. Their realized niches are based on data from the elevation-temperature gradient in Nepal (1000-5000 m a.s.l.). The ex-situ data are from botanical gardens and arboreta mainly located in the northern hemisphere (n=43). Method Binary data on these taxa were obtained from 707 geocoded herbarium specimens (elevation and UTM location) and from two elevation transects in Nepal (n =194 plots). Climate conditions from ex-situ locations for each taxon were compared with their realized climate ranges with respect to (i) mean annual temperature (MAT)| (ii) mean minimum temperature of the coldest month (MINCM)| (iii) mean maximum temperature of the warmest month (MAXWM)| and (iv) moisture index (MI). Realized optima were estimated by Generalized Linear Models (GLM)| and its non-parametric extension| Generalized Additive Models (GAM)| were used to estimate the realized niches. Results All target species have ex-situ individuals outside the realized climate niche| but the number is much higher for maximum and minimum variables than for MAT. The most dominant species (in-situ )| R. arboreum| had very few individuals outside its realized range| indicating congruence between its ex-situ and realized niches. The other taxa had many individuals outside the warm end of their realized temperature ranges| but almost none beyond the cold end of their ranges. All target taxa occur in common gardens under warm temperate conditions| but only R. arboreum grows in the warm temperate zone in the Himalayas. This trend at the warm end of the gradient is interpreted as a result of biotic exclusion. Main conclusion The results demonstrate that an extreme cold temperature may represent an absolute boundary for tree species' survival| whereas warm temperatures do not. This is in agreement with the hypothesis that several tree species may survive global warming in-situ because of high temperature tolerance| but its effect on regeneration is uncertain. In lieu of this there may be a significant time lag between change in climate and transient tree species distribution. Thus the effect of global warming on tree species distribution may be very difficult to predict. 5820,2002,2,4,Recent evolution of surge-related events in the northern Adriatic area,The recent increase in the frequency of coastal flooding in Venice mainly depends on loss of land elevation (subsidence and eustasy) and man-induced hydrodynamic changes in the lagoon area| but can also be strengthened in the near future by changes in climate. In this paper| after a short review of recent changes in the relative mean and maximal levels of the sea and their causes| the main meteorological factors (atmospheric pressure and winds of sirocco and bora)| which produce sea surges in the Gulf of Venice| are identified statistically. The recent evolution of these meteorological factors in the Adriatic area shows some favorable trends (the atmospheric pressure is increasing| thus provisionally masking eustatic sea-level rise| and bora is sharply lessening). However| the effects of sirocco| which is increasing in frequency in the mid-Adriatic| seem to be prevailing. On the whole| the frequency of sea surges greater than or equal to5 cm to greater than or equal to30 cm| which are the most frequent| is increasing in the North Adriatic and this implies more "moderately high tide levels"| which are however liable to flood the lowest parts of the city of Venice. Such increase in frequency seems related to recent climatic changes (possibly related to global warming) and may therefore be expected to worsen in the near future. 5930,2002,2,4,Reconciling differences in predictions of temperature response of soil organic matter,Global warming has long been assumed to lead to an increase in soil respiration and| hence| decreasing soil carbon stores. This assumption has been based on short-term studies of litter and soil organic matter incubations. However| some recent studies seem to indicate that soil organic matter is less temperature sensitive than previously thought. We will in this paper use the continuous-quality theory to show that the temperature dependence of decomposition of soil organic matter depends on whether one studies soils at their native temperatures or soils that have been perturbed from their native temperatures. Turnover times of soil organic matter are more sensitive to temperature changes when they are estimated from typical incubation experiments with different temperatures than when they are estimated from soils at their native temperatures because the variation in turnover rate with native soil temperature is not the same as the temperature response of turnover rate of a given soil. This reconciles some seemingly incompatible results in the literature. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5807,2002,3,3,Recovery of fluorocarbons in Japan as a measure for abating global warming,The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for recovering fluorocarbons as measures for the abatement of global warming. In this study. we focused on the three different kinds of fluorocarbons: CFCs. HCFCs and HFCs. and targeted refrigerant use because of the availability of relevant data. We first estimated future fluorocarbon emissions from the targeted appliances: we next compared those emissions in the units of CO2 equivalent to the level of CO2 emissions in 1990 from a quantitative point of view. As the result of this study| it was found that fluorocarbon emissions in 1999 and 2010 would be equal to approximately 7 and 3% of the level of CO2 emissions in 1990 respectively. Moreover. if we implement a 100% recovery rate in every recovery route| we can reduce a large amount of emissions which correspond to approximately 2-5% of the level of CO2 emissions in 1990| even if we take into account the enery-related CO2 emissions by the transportation and decomposition of fluorocarbons. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5938,2002,3,4,Refrigeration and the environment - issues and strategies for the future,Worldwide reactions to the debates on global warming and ozone depletion have led to social responses and legislative measures which have serious implications for refrigeration and associated industries. This paper discusses the| problems to be faced| and the ways in which the industry can contribute to meeting the wider global objectives. The discussion considers the choice and availability of working fluids| the increased complexity of using fluid mixtures| and the risk of losing the simplicity in design and construction which was possible with CFC single fluids. Education and training are presented as issues because of the changes in technology. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 2925,2002,5,4,Regional lithofacies and pedofacies variations along a north to south climatic gradient during the Last Glacial period in the central Loess Plateau| China,Five lateral sand-loess-palaeosol continua occur within the last glacial sediments of the central Loess Plateau of China along a 500 km north to south climatic gradient. The continua shift southward or northward in concert with desert expansion or contraction| respectively. Lateral lithofacies (desert sand to loess) variations are evident at the north end of the gradient and follow Walther's Law of the correlation of facies. Lateral pedofacies (loess to palaeosol) variations are present near the south end of the gradient| where the climate was warmer and wetter. The lateral stratigraphic changes from sand to loess or loess to soil are driven by variations in the rate of sedimentation along a climatic gradient. Vertical stratigraphic profiles at the north end of the gradient reveal alternating sand and loess beds. In contrast| alternating loess and palaeosols occur within the same stratigraphic interval in the southern Loess Plateau| where dust accretion rates were lower. However| in high resolution studies of climate change vertical profiles of alternating loess and palaeosols (especially weak palaeosols) may not reflect regional or global climate change. Alternating loess and weak palaeosols may reflect local variations in the balance between the rates of dust accretion and pedogenesis. Local fluctuations in either of these rates could result in the presence of time equivalent loess and palaeosols at high resolutions. Thus| some of the high resolution loess-palaeosol alternations may reflect local climatic variation rather than global or hemispherical climate change. 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 2895,2002,2,3,Regional ocean climate simulations with a 3D ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea. Part 1: model experiments and results for temperature and salinity,Sea surface temperatures and salinity profiles in the Baltic Sea have been analyzed under different climate conditions using a 3D coupled ice-ocean model. As a reference| hindcast simulations for the period 1980-93 have been performed using observed three-hourly meteorological forcing fields and observed monthly river runoff. The results are compared with available observations from monitoring stations. The observed Baltic Sea climate is well reproduced by the model. Furthermore| two sets of 9-year time slice experiments have been performed using results from an atmospheric regional climate model as forcing. One of the time slice sets represents pre-industrial greenhouse conditions (control simulation)| and the other set represents a global warming condition with a 150% increase in equivalent CO(2) concentrations (scenario simulation) with lateral boundary conditions from the global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model| HadCM2. To simulate river runoff| a large-scale hydrological model has been applied. As the time slices are too short to properly spin up initial stratification for future climate| salinity is treated as an uncertainty factor. An extreme condition is obtained by integrating the Baltic Sea model for a period of 100 years while assuming that no salt water inflow will occur in the future. Salinity in the Gotland Basin decreases in the surface layer by about 3 to 4 psu and in the bottom layer by about 6 to 6.5 psu. The final quasi-equilibrium is characterized by salinities of 2.8 psu (minimum at the surface) to 6.5 psu (maximum at the bottom). The area averaged annual mean sea surface temperature change between scenario and control run is about 2.3 degreesC. The warming in different seasons is almost the same. The computational effective time slice approach in dynamical downscaling experiments is regarded as a feasible technique to regionalize global climate change experiments in the Baltic Sea. 5801,2002,2,3,Regional ocean climate simulations with a 3D ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea. Part 2: results for sea ice,The Baltic Sea ice season under changing climate conditions is investigated using a 3D coupled ice-ocean model. Results of multi-year simulations for the period of May 1980 to December 1993 are compared with observations from monitoring stations| ice charts and satellite data. The period 1980-1993 has been selected mainly because of the availability of homogeneous observational data sets for atmospheric variables and river runoff with sufficient quality to force a 3D high resolution Baltic Sea model. The observed seasonal variation of sea ice is well reproduced by the model. Furthermore| two sets of 9-year time slice experiments have been performed using results of an atmospheric regional climate model as forcing| one representing pre-industrial greenhouse conditions (control simulation)| and the other a global warming with a 150% increase of equivalent CO(2) concentration (scenario simulation). At the lateral boundaries of the regional climate model| results of the global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model HadCM2 have been prescribed. In the control run| the mean seasonal cycle of ice cover and its variability is simulated realistically compared to observations| but the seasonal ice cover maximum is shifted in time by about 18 days and the simulated mean melting date is delayed. Mild winters are missing in the relatively short control run. The decrease of mean ice extent in the scenario| compared to the control run| is dramatic| reducing from 210 . 10(9) m(2) to 82 . 10(9) m(2) (a relative change of 61%). However| in all scenario years| ice is still formed in the northernmost basin of the Baltic Sea| the Bothnian Bay. The minimum ice extent is 16 . 10(9) m(2) (for comparison: the area of the Bothnian Bay is about twice as large). The mean number of ice days decreases significantly. In the fast ice zone of the Bothnian Bay the mean ice season is reduced by 40 days. The ice in the scenario run is thinner with less snow on top. In the central Bothnian Bay| mean maximum annual ice thickness is reduced by 25 cm from 54 to 29 cm. Model dependent uncertainties are discussed. 5839,2002,4,4,Regional radiative forcing by line-shaped contrails derived from satellite data,[1] The influence of contrails on the radiation budget depends mainly on their coverage and optical depth. This study derives these parameters from data of the advanced very high resolution radiometer sensor onboard the NOAA 14 satellite for a region over western Europe within 40degrees-56degrees N and 10degreesW-23degrees E during 2 years starting March 1995. The data are classified by an operational contrail detection algorithm with a new evaluation of the detection efficiency. From the classification results| daytime and nighttime coverage by line-shaped contrails over western Europe are derived. The daytime contrail coverage for the analyzed region is 0.7% in the annual mean| 1.0% during winter| and 0.4% during summer. The daytime contrail cover is 3 times higher than the night-time contrail cover. An effective optical depth of the observed contrails is derived from the radiation contrasts in the 11 m m channel for contrails and adjacent pixels. The optical depth in the visible spectral range is computed from these results assuming a previously measured size spectrum of ice crystals. The mean visible optical depth is found to be about 0.1| much smaller than that derived from previous case studies. The average radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere is computed for the derived contrail cloud cover and optical depth. Here contrails mostly cause positive radiative forcing (heating). Larger heating effects during night and summer get partly compensated through more contrail cover during day and winter. The radiative forcing by contrails in the examined region is similar to0.03 W m(-2)| which is much smaller than was estimated earlier. 5688,2002,2,3,Regional responses of climate in the northwestern Pacific Ocean to gradual global warming for a CO2 quadrupling.,This study investigates the regional responses of a climate model to the gradual increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide at 1% per year compounded for quadrupling. Use of NCAR fully coupled Climate System Model (CSM1.2) is attempted| with special emphasis on the simulated sea-level changes in the neighbouring seas of the northwestern Pacific Ocean with an enhanced resolution. Regional warming and sea level change are higher than global changes. At the time Of CO2 quadrupling| the model predicts a rise in sea level of 19 cm and 25 cm for the globe and the northwestern Pacific Ocean| respectively| while surface air temperature rises are 2.9degreesC and 3.0degreesC for the globe and the northwestern Pacific Ocean| respectively. Based on simulations| climate changes in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean will be more distinctive compared with the global average| mainly due to exceptionally large warming and sea level change near the entrance of the Kuroshio extension. 5707,2002,2,4,Relationships between mean and standard deviation of air temperature: implications for global warming,Using data from the contiguous USA| the relationship between mean and standard deviation of daily air temperature was estimated on a monthly timescale from 1948 to 1997. In general| there is either an inverse relationship or a weak relationship between mean and standard deviation. For both daily maximum and daily minimum air temperature| the inverse relationship is spatially coherent for one-third to two-thirds of the contiguous USA for most months. The inverse relationship also is fairly strong| with typical reductions in standard deviation ranging from 0.2 to 0.5degreesC for every 1degreesC increase in mean temperature. A weaker| direct relationship between mean and standard deviation occurs; in some northern states| primarily during spring and fall months. Using the predominant inverse and weak relationships as historical analogs for future climatic change suggests that interdiurnal variability of air temperature should either decrease or remain unchanged under warming conditions. Although the variability of air temperature may decrease or remain unchanged at most locations in the contiguous USA| the probability of extremely high air temperatures should still increase| depending on the magnitude of changes in mean air temperature and the nature of the variance response. 5781,2002,3,3,Renewable energy sources: The key to a better future,This paper outlines the growing need for energy in the developed and developing countries and the acute population growth| which will exceed 10 billion by the year 2050. It describes the achievement and progress made in hydropower| biomass conversion| geothermal| solar thermal technology| wind energy conversion| and the increasing usage of photovoltaics. The paper also addresses the barriers and problems facing renewable energy users and producers. It is evident that global warming is setting in and is going to change the climate as well as the terrain of many countries unless drastic measures are taken. The recent Kyoto meeting emphasized the importance of limiting CO2 emissions and abiding by some form of agreement to reduce emissions. The present study concludes that renewable energy penetration into the energy market is much faster than was expected in recent years and by 2030| 15-20% of our prime energy will be met by renewable energy. 5709,2002,2,4,Response of an allergenic species Ambrosia psilostachya (Asteraceae)| to experimental warming and clipping: Implications for public health,We examined the responses of an allergenic species| western ragweed (Ambrosia psilostachya DC.)| to experimental warming and clipping. The experiment was conducted in a tallgrass prairie in Oklahoma| USA| between 1999 and 2001. Warming increased ragweed stems by 88% when not clipped and 46% when clipped. Clipping increased ragweed stems by 75% and 36% in the control and warmed plots| respectively. In 2001| warming resulted in a 105% increase in ragweed aboveground biomass (AGB)| and the ratio of ragweed AGB to total AGB increased by 79%. Dry mass per ragweed stem in the warmed plots was 37% and 38% greater than that in the control plots in 2000 and 2001| respectively. Although warming caused no difference in pollen production per stem| total pollen production increased by 84% (P < 0.05) because there were more ragweed stems. Experimental warming significantly increased pollen diameter from 21.2 μm in the control plots to 23.9 μm in the warmed plots (a 13% increase). The results from our experiment suggest that global warming could aggravate allergic hazards and thereby jeopardize public health. 5673,2002,5,4,Response of Antarctic (ODP Site 690) planktonic foraminifera to the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum: Faunal evidence for ocean/climate change,High-resolution study of Antarctic planktonic foraminiferal assemblages (Ocean Drilling Program Site 690| Weddell Sea) shows that these microplankton underwent a stepwise series of changes during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). Initiation of this response coincides with the onset of the carbon isotope excursion (CIE) but precedes the benthic foraminiferal mass extinction. The "top-to-bottom'' succession in the biotic response indicates that the surface ocean/atmosphere was affected before the deep sea. The earliest stage of the faunal response entailed a conspicuous turnover within the shallow-dwelling genus Acarinina and a succession of stratigraphic first appearances. The genus Morozovella| large (>180 mum) biserial planktonics| and A. wilcoxensis are all restricted to the lower CIE within this PETM section. Acarininid populations crashed as the ocean/climate system ameliorated during the CIE recovery| reflecting atypical surface water conditions. This transient decline in acarininids is paralleled by a marked increase in carbonate content of sediments. It is postulated that this interval of carbonate enrichment| and its unusual microfauna| reflects enhanced carbon storage within reservoirs of the global carbon cycle other than the marine carbonate system [sensu Broecker et al.| 1993; Ravizza et al.| 2001]. 5713,2002,4,4,Response of monsoon variability in Himalayas to global warming,Reconstructed annual net accumulation from the Dasuopu ice core recovered in Himalayas| with a good correlation to Indian monsoon| reflects a major precipitation trend in central Himalayas. The Dasuopu accumulation (DSP An) also shows a strong correlation to the Northern Hemispheric temperature. Generally| as the Northern Hemispheric temperature increases by 0.1 K| the accumulation decreases by about 90 mm and vise versa. Under the condition of global warming| especially since 1920| the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature has increased by about 0.5 K| whereas accumulation in Dasuopu ice core has decreased by about 450 mm. According to the relationship between accumulation and temperature| a scenario prediction of monsoon rainfall in central Himalayas is made. 5907,2002,2,4,Response of monsoonal temperate glaciers to global warming since the Little Ice Age,Monsoonal temperate glaciers in China mainly occur in the southeastern part of Qinghai (Tibetan) Plateau. They constitute an area of 13203.2 km(2)| accounting for 22.2% of China's total glaciated area. Such glaciers are extremely sensitive to climatic warming due to their unique characters. An inconsiderable rise in air temperature may lead to a significant rise in ELA and a large shrinkage in glacier area. Since the maximum of the Little Ice Age (17th century) the mean temperature of monsoonal temperate glaciers in China has increased by 0.8degreesC and the glacier area has decreased by 3921.2 km(2)| an amount equivalent to 30% of the modern glacier area. It is predicted that by the year 2100 the temperature in the monsoonal temperate glaciers of China will rise by 2.1degreesC| the glacier area will decrease by 75%| approximately 9900 km(2). If the precipitation decreases| the retreat of the glaciers will be even faster| but the area reduction percentage of the glaciers will not exceed 80%. This will no doubt pose a serious threat to the water resources and environment in these regions. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 5792,2002,2,4,Response of Picea abies populations from elevational transects in the Polish Sudety and Carpathian mountains to simulated drought stress,The response of 24 Norway spruce populations from a broad elevational gradient to four combinations of watering and temperature was studied in a phytotron experiment. The results of this experiment are important for better understanding possible impacts of global warming on low- and high-altitude populations of Picea abies. The investigated populations showed evidence of clinal variation in height| mass and bud-set parameters in all treatments. The higher the elevation of origin| the earlier the bud-set and the poorer the mass and height of the populations. The interaction of population origin x treatment showed a small percentage variance component| but there was a clear differentiation in reaction of the tested populations to the simulated drought. The low-altitude populations showed a strong negative reaction to the drought stress| whereas the high-altitude ones were more drought tolerant. So if global warming would be accompanied by soil drought| the low-altitude populations would reduce their growth much more than the high-altitude ones. But if global warming would be combined with an adequate increase of precipitation| then low-altitude populations would profit from this climate change more than high-altitude ones. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5676,2002,2,3,Response of the antarctic circumpolar current transport to global warming in a coupled model,[1] The transient and long-term adjustment process of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in response to global warming in the CSIRO climate model is examined in an integration| which is run under increasing atmospheric CO2 following the IPCC/IS92a scenario to stabilisation at triple the initial CO2 concentration (3 x CO2). The ACC transport through Drake Passage shows an evident strengthening along with the CO2 increase and| in the subsequent period with stabilised 3 x CO2| it keeps increasing steadily after CO2 tripling for a few centuries until a maximum (151 Sv| 17% larger than the initial state) is reached. The strengthening of the ACC transport results from the warming-induced enhancement of the meridional density gradient in the ocean interior across the ACC: it leads to a speedup of the upper layer zonal flow which outweighs the deceleration in the underlying layer caused by the weakening of the deep overturning off Antarctica. 5876,2002,5,4,Response of tropical vegetation to Paleogene warming,The late Paleocene-early Eocene transition was characterized by along period of global warming that culminated with the highest temperatures of the Cenozoic. This interval is associated with a significant increase in plant diversity in temperate latitudes. However| data from tropical regions remain largely unknown. The record of pollen and spore diversity across the late Paleocene to the early middle Eocene of eight sections in central and eastern Colombia was analyzed. Several techniques| including range-through method| rarefaction| bootstrap| detrended correspondence analysis| and Shannon index| were used to assess the significance of the observed diversity pattern. The palynofloral record indicates that the lower to middle Eocene contains a significantly higher palynofloral diversity than the underlying upper Paleocene strata. This pattern is maintained after accounting for sample size| number of samples/time unit| lithofacies| and depositional systems. Eocene palynofloras have higher alpha and beta diversities and a higher equitability than Paleocene palynofloras. This increase in diversity is the product of a gradual increase in the rate of first appearances and a gradual decrease in the rate of last appearances. The early to middle Eocene increase in diversity| as well as the increase in spore abundance and diversity| suggests that tropical (equatorial) climate became wetter during the early to middle Eocene. This interpretation favors causes for early Eocene warming that do not involve significant increases in greenhouse gases. Samples from strata associated with the Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum were barren for palynomorphs| and the effects of this climatic event on tropical vegetation remains uncertain. 5797,2002,4,2,Responsibility for past and future global warming: Uncertainties in attributing anthropogenic climate change,During the negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol| Brazil proposed a methodology to link the relative contribution of Annex I Parties to emission reductions with the relative contributions of Parties to the global-mean temperature increase. The proposal was not adopted during the negotiations but referred to the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice for consideration of its methodological aspects. In this context we analyze the impact of model uncertainties and methodological choices on the regionally attributed global-mean temperature increase. A climate assessment model has been developed to calculate changes in greenhouse gas concentrations| global-mean temperature and sea-level rise attributable to individual regions. The analysis shows the impact of the different choices in methodological aspects to be as important as the impact of model uncertainties on a region's contribution to present and future global temperature increases. Choices may be the inclusion of the anthropogenic non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions and/or the CO2 emissions associated with land-use changes. When responsibility to global temperature change is attributed to all emitting Parties| the impacts of modeling uncertainties and methodological choices on contributions of individual Parties are considerable. However| if relative contributions are calculated only within the group of Annex I countries| the results are less sensitive to the uncertainty aspects considered here. 5678,2002,2,4,Revised 21st century temperature projections,Temperature projections for the 21st century made in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate a rise of 1.4 to 5.8degreesC for 1990-2100. However| several independent lines of evidence suggest that the projections at the upper end of this range are not well supported. Since the publication of the TAR| several findings have appeared in the scientific literature that challenge many of the assumptions that generated the TAR temperature range. Incorporating new findings on the radiative forcing of black carbon (BC) aerosols| the magnitude of the climate sensitivity| and the strength of the climate/carbon cycle feedbacks into a simple upwelling diffusion/energy balance model similar to the one that was used in the TAR| we find that the range of projected warming for the 1990-2100 period is reduced to 1.1-2.8degreesC. When we adjust the TAR emissions scenarios to include an atmospheric CO2 pathway that is based upon observed CO2 increases during the past 25 yr| we find a warming range of 1.5-2.6degreesC prior to the adjustments for the new findings. Factoring in these findings along with the adjusted CO2 pathway reduces the range to 1.0-1.6degreesC. And thirdly| a simple empirical adjustment to the average of a large family of models| based upon observed changes in temperature| yields a warming range of 1.3-3.0degreesC| with a central value of 1.9degreesC. The constancy of these somewhat independent results encourages us to conclude that 21st century warming will be modest and near the low end of the IPCC TAR projections.
5746,2002,4,4,Revision of the global carbon budget due to changing air-sea oxygen fluxes,[1] Carbon budgets inferred from measurements of the atmospheric oxygen to nitrogen ratio (O-2/N-2) are revised considering sea-to-air fluxes of O-2 and N-2 in response to global warming and volcanic eruptions. Observational estimates of changes in ocean heat content are combined with a model-derived relationship between changes in atmospheric O-2/N-2 due to oceanic outgassing and heat fluxes to estimate ocean O-2 outgassing. The inferred terrestrial carbon sink for the 1990s is reduced by a factor of two compared with the most recent estimate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This also improves the agreement between calculated ocean carbon uptake rates and estimates from global carbon cycle models| which indicate a higher ocean carbon uptake during the 1990s than the 1980s. The simulated decrease in oceanic O-2 concentrations is in qualitative agreement with observed trends in oceanic O-2 concentrations. 5921,2002,2,4,River-lake system in a mosaic landscape; Main results and some implications for theory and practice from studies on the river Jorka system (Masurian Lakeland| Poland),The basic results and conclusions of multi-year studies (described in detail in previous papers) on the river-lake system in the lakeland region of north-eastern Poland are shortly presented in relation to the selected general ecological problems. The study area was proved to be representative of the mosaic landscape structure and of the river-lake system as atrophic continuum with the spatial pattern of human impact established a century ago. Generally low export rates of nutrients and relatively low input to the lakes were found as typical of the region. However| year-to-year variation in nutrient export from the lake watersheds was high| mostly related to the discharge variation| and highest in the vernal period; the highest values were found for polluted fragments of the watershed. The long-term relative stability of in-lake trophic conditions was found and their basic relation to the lake position in the river system. The role of wetlands (isolated patches and the zones close to lakes) in diminishing the nutrient input was proved and their vegetation was described. Some consequences of the possible global warming and decrease in discharge and water table in the region were pointed out| such as the pulsing (concentrated in the freshet period) system of water and nutrient supplying| sink or source function of lakes in the river system (positive or negative nutrient retention in successive lakes)| change in eutrophication rate| and its symptoms. The main implications for watershed management in the lakeland region are indicated. 5831,2002,2,4,Role of environmental temperature in aging and longevity: insights from neurolipofuscin,The available evidence for thermal modulation of neurolipofuscin deposition in poikilotherms is reviewed here and additional data are contributed. Mainly decapod crustacean models are employed and neurolipofuscin is treated as an index of physiological aging. In all cases| neurolipofuscin accumulation rate is positively correlated with environmental temperature but there appears to be lowered sensitivity in the thermal mid-range| an 'optimum' temperature for neurolipofuscin accumulation and possibly age-associated variation. The geographical position of the population within the species' thermal range may determine sensitivity of the response. There is seasonal oscillation of neurolipofuscin accumulation rate| providing preliminary evidence for neurolipofuscin turnover with net loss in winter. Spatial and temporal thermal variations of similar magnitude appear to have comparable effects on neurolipofuscin accumulation rate. Such effects may be extreme| suggesting important implications for physiological aging even in homeotherms. Inter-specific comparisons indicate that species-specific neurolipofuscin accumulation rates are positively correlated with habitat temperature and inversely correlated with maximum lifespan and age at maturity. These findings help explain some well-known bioclimatic trends in maturation- and maximum body size| such as Bergmann's rule. They also highlight the fact that global warming is likely to cause significant changes in life history parameters| population dynamics and responses to exploitation for many species. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. 2926,2002,2,3,Roles of food web and heterotrophic microbial processes in upper ocean biogeochemistry: Global patterns and processes,The growth and dynamics of plankton in the ocean vary with natural cycles| global climate change and the long-term evolution of ecosystems. The ocean is a large reservoir for CO2 and the food webs in the upper ocean play critical roles in regulating the global carbon cycle| changes in atmospheric CO2 and associated global warming. Microheterotrophs are a key component of the upper ocean food webs. Here| we report on the results of an analysis of the distribution of bacteria and related properties in the World Ocean. We found that| for the data set as a whole| there is a significant latitudinal gradient in all field-measured and computed bacterial properties| except growth rate. Gradients were| for the most part| driven by an equator-ward increase in the Southern Hemisphere. The biomass| rates of production and respiration and dissolved organic carbon concentrations were significantly higher in the Northern than the Southern hemispheres. In contrast| growth rates were the same in the two hemispheres. We conclude that the lower biomass and production in the Southern Hemisphere reflects greater top-down control by microbial grazers| which would be due to a lower abundance or activity of omnivorous zooplankton in the Southern than Northern Hemispheres. These large spatial differences in dynamics| structure and activity of the bacterial community and the microbial food web will be reflected in different patterns of carbon cycling| export and air-sea exchange of CO2 and the potential ability of the ocean to sequester carbon. 5852,2002,2,4,Satellite evidence of phenological differences between urbanized and rural areas of the eastern United States deciduous broadleaf forest,We used a 10-year record (1990-99) of composited and cloud-screened reflectances from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to test for phenological differences between urban and rural areas in the eastern United States deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF). We hypothesized that well-documented urban heat island effects would be associated with alterations in temperature-sensitive vegetation phenology. Our objectives were thus (a) to investigate possible differences in the start of the growing season (SOS) and end of the growing season (EOS) between the urban and DBF land covers| (b) to investigate related differences in greenness amplitude and fractional cover| and (c) to develop a generalized additive model (GAM) to predict the spatial variation of observed differences. By analyzing individual 1degrees latitude by 1degrees longitude blocks| we found that| on average| urbanization is associated with a growing season expansion of 7.6 days. Most of this effect is caused by an earlier SOS in urban areas. In all cases| urban regions had lower fractional cover and greenness amplitude. The GAM model failed to produce a viable model for differences in EOS| probably because it is dominated by photoperiod controls with only a minor temperature impact. SOS differences were predicted with an accuracy of about 2.4 days| with a GAM consisting of smoothed functions of mean annual average temperature| urban fractional cover| and the urban vs DBF greenness amplitude difference. We speculate that evidence of a phenoiogical response to warming indicates that global warming| without reduction in DBF vegetation cover and greenness amplitude| may increase carbon sequestration in mesic deciduous forests. 5677,2002,4,4,Satellite-based detection of global urban heat-island temperature influence,This study utilizes a satellite-based methodology to assess the urban heat-island influence during warm season months for over 4400 stations included in the Global Historical Climatology Network of climate stations. The methodology includes local and regional satellite retrievals of an indicator of the presence green photosynthetically active vegetation at and around the stations. The difference in local and regional samples of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to estimate differences in mean air temperature. Stations classified as urban averaged 0.90degreesC (N. Hemisphere) and 0.92degreesC (S. Hemisphere) warmer than the surrounding environment on the basis of the NDVI-derived temperature estimates. Additionally| stations classified as rural averaged 0.19degreesC (N. Hemisphere) and 0.16degreesC (S. Hemisphere) warmer than the surrounding environment. The NDVI-derived temperature estimates were found to be in reasonable agreement with temperature differences observed between climate stations. The results suggest that satellite-derived data sets can be used to estimate the urban heat-island temperature influence on a global basis and that a more detailed analysis of rural stations and their surrounding environment may be necessary to assure that temperature trends derived from assumed rural environments are not influenced by changes in land use/land cover. 2873,2002,3,3,Screening| evaluation| and ranking of oil reservoirs suitable for CO2-flood EOR and carbon dioxide sequestration,Geological sequestration of CO2 in EOR operations has been recognized as one of the more viable means of reducing emissions of anthropogenic CO2 into the atmosphere in response to global climate change. This option| which lowers the cost of CO2 sequestration by recovering incremental oil| is particularly attractive in mature sedimentary basins| such as the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin where many oil pools are near depletion| and where most of the needed infrastructure is already in place. A method was developed for the rapid screening and ranking of oil reservoirs suited for CO2-flood EOR| which is particularly fit for a very large number of reservoirs as listed in reserves databases| and which does not require detailed reservoir engineering analysis. Oil reservoirs are screened on the basis of oil gravity| reservoir temperature and pressure| minimum miscibility pressure and remaining oil saturation| to determine their suitability for CO2 flooding| and an analytical method is used to calculate the incremental oil recovery at breakthrough and for any hydrocarbon pore volume (HCPV) fraction of injected CO2. In addition| the reservoir capacity for CO2 sequestration is calculated. Reservoirs are ranked according to a set of criteria with corresponding assigned weights to identify and select the best suited reservoir for CO2 flooding and sequestration. The method was applied to 8|637 oil reservoirs listed in the 2000 Alberta reserved database. Of these| 4|470 passed the screening criteria and were ranked based on technical and performance characteristics. Preliminary calculations predict that 150 X 10(6)| 422 X 10(6)| or 558 X 10(6) m(3)| of additional oil could be produced from Alberta's reservoirs at breakthrough| and a 50% and 100% HCPV of injected CO2| respectively; meanwhile sequestering 127| 591 and 1|118 Mt CO2| respectively. Thus| geological sequestration of CO2| in Alberta oil reservoirs suitable for CO2 flooding could provide a means for a significantly reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions from major point sources while| at the same time| realizing an economic benefit. 5879,2002,2,4,Seasonal fluctuations in sand temperature: effects on the incubation period and mortality of loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) pre-emergent hatchlings in Minabe| Japan,Incubation period.| hatching success| and emergence percentage in loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nests were quantified during the 1993 and 1995 nesting seasons and following incubation seasons in Minabe| Wakayama| Japan. Sand and nest temperatures were also monitored. Over the seasons| daily mean sand temperature at nest depth fluctuated between 18.0degreesC and 33.3degreesC| with a steep increase in the second week of July and a peak in late August. Temperatures inside the nest chambers were a few degrees above those of the surrounding sand at the end of incubation. The incubation period ranged from 46 to 82 days. A significant negative correlation was found between mean sand temperature and incubation period. The relationship conformed to the day-degree concept. There was no significant seasonal trend in hatching success| but many pre-emergent hatchlings were found dead in most of the clutches during the warmest part of the season. Emergence percentage was correlated with mean sand temperature calculated for 4 days before emergence| suggesting that mortality may be due to heat. This heat-related mortality is considered to be a common phenomenon at our study site| because the peak in emergences coincides with the peak in high temperatures. These temperature effects on hatchling mortality must be taken into account in estimates of hatchling sex ratios. Because sand temperatures already exceed the optimal thermal range for incubation| this population is vulnerable to even small temperature increases resulting from global warming. 5692,2002,2,4,Seasonal variation in condition| growth and food habits of walleye in a Great Plains reservoir and simulated effects of an altered thermal regime,Catch rates in gillnets and relative weight (W-r) of walleye Stizostedion vitreum| in Glen Elder Reservoir| Kansas| were lowest during the summer (June-August) and highest during the autumn (September-November). Approximately 80% of their annual growth in length and mass was attained during late summer and autumn. Growth was minimal during winter (January-February) and spring (March-May). The number of walleye with empty stomachs was highest during the summer. Invertebrates (Cladocera| Chironomidae) were common in walleye stomachs during the summer and spring| but contributed little to the ingested biomass. Gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum dominated walleye diets (per cent by mass) throughout the year. A bioenergetics model predicted that the proportion of maximum consumption (P-c) was highest during the autumn and was probably due to spatial overlap of walleye and gizzard shad once water temperatures were <22degreesC. The bioenergetics model predicted that walleye would lose up to 65% of their body mass during the summer if water temperature increased by 10% (as predicted by some global warming models). Growth during the autumn| winter and spring was enhanced up to 150% by increased temperatures. The results of this study indicate that lower condition| reduced consumption and slow growth are a generalized| response of walleye to extreme temperatures. Elevated temperatures may have a net positive effect on walleye growth if they can survive the high thermal stress during summer. (C) 2002 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2881,2002,3,3,Sediment carbon concentration and transport from small watersheds under various conservation tillage practices,Carbon sequestration by soils is viewed as a process that can reduce CO2 emission and its potential impacts on global climate change. Therefore| impacts of various agricultural management practices on carbon (C) release/sequestration need to be assessed. The objective of this study was to measure C concentrations and transport in sediments lost with various tillage practices on small watersheds. Corn-soybean/rye (Zea mays L. Glycine max (L.) Merr./Secale cereale L.) rotations with no-till| chisel-plow| and paraplow were studied on small watersheds (0.55-0.79 ha). Disk tillage preceding the corn and soybean crops of a corn-soybean-wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)/clover (Trifolium pratense L.) rotation was also studied. Each small watershed was instrumented with a 60 cm H-flume mounted on a concrete approach| and a Coshocton wheel for collecting a proportional sample of water and sediment. Samples of sediment deposited in the flume approach and in runoff were collected during a 15-year period and analyzed for total C concentration. Weighted averages of C in the sediment that passed through the flumes during the treatment periods did not differ significantly among tillage treatments| although no-till had the highest C (30 g kg(-1)) and disk had the lowest C (23 g kg(-1)) in the last 9 years of the study period. Weighted averages of C concentration in the flume floor sediments were slightly lower (21-23 g kg(-1)). For comparison| weighted C concentration in sediment that passed through flumes from small fertilized| pastured watersheds ranged from 52 to 72 g kg(-1). Average annual sediment loss was 532| 828| and 1152 kg ha(-1) for no-till| chisel-plow| and disk| respectively. Annual average transport of C via sediment was 13.8| 15.0| 12.7| and 24.0 kg ha(-1) for no-till| chisel-plow| paraplow| and disk| respectively. Although tillage practices may reduce C transport in sediment by lowering concentrations| a greater factor for reducing C movement is reducing sediment movement. This information will be useful to policy makers and others who need to put definitive values on land management practices in terms of C sequestration/release. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. 2929,2002,2,4,Sensitivity of stomatal and canopy conductance to elevated CO2 concentration - interacting variables and perspectives of scale,The hydrological response of forests to rising CO2 is a critical biotic feedback in the study of global climate change. Few studies| however| have investigated this highly dynamic response at relevant temporal and spatial scales. A combination of leaf and whole-tree measurements and stand-level extrapolations were used to assess how stomatal conductance| canopy transpiration and conductance| and evapotranspiration might be affected by future| higher CO2 concentrations. Midday measurements of stomatal conductance for leaves sampled in a 12-yr-old sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua) stand exposed to free-air CO2 enrichment were up to 44% lower at elevated than at ambient CO2 concentrations| whereas canopy conductance| averaged over the growing season| was only 14% lower in stands exposed to CO2 enrichment. The magnitude of this response was dependent on vapor pressure deficit and soil water potential. Annual estimates of evapotranspiration showed relatively small reductions due to atmospheric CO2 enrichment. These data illustrate that the hydrological response of a closed-canopy plantation to elevated CO2 depends on the temporal and spatial scale of observation. They emphasize the importance of interacting variables and confirm that integration of measurements over space and time reduce what| at the leaf level| might otherwise appear to be a large and significant response. 5724,2002,2,3,Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols,The coupled atmosphere-ocean Climate Model of the Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM) has been used to run a time-dependent climate change experiment to study the impact of increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols on the simulated water cycle. This simulation has been initialised with the oceanic temperature and salinity profiles and the atmospheric trace gas concentrations observed in the 1950s| and has been carried out for 150 years after a 20-year spin-up. The simulated climate change has been analysed as the difference between two 30-year time slices: 1970-2000 and 2070-2100 respectively. The model achieves a reasonable simulation of present-day climate and simulates a general increase in precipitation throughout the twenty first century. The main exceptions are the subtropics| where the enhanced Hadley circulation has a drying impact| and the midlatitude continents| where the increased evaporation in spring and decreased moisture convergence in summer lead to a relative summer drying. Global and regional analyses suggest that the precipitation increase is generally limited by a decrease in the water vapour cycling rate and in the precipitation efficiency| which appear as key parameters of the simulated water cycle. In order to reduce the spread between climate scenarios| more efforts should be devoted to estimate these parameters from satellite observations and meteorological analyses| and their possible evolution over recent decades. In the present study| the impacts of global warming on the surface hydrology have been also investigated. The main findings are the amplification of the annual cycle of soil moisture in the mid-and-high latitudes| and the decrease in the Northern Hemisphere snow cover| at a rate that is consistent with recent satellite estimations and should increase during the twenty first century. The runoff simulated over the 1950-2100 period has been converted into river flow using a linear river routeing model. The trends simulated over recent decades are surprisingly consistent with the river flow measurements available from the Global Runoff Data Centre. These trends can differ from those estimated over the whole 150-year integration| thereby indicating that it is not safe to predict hydrological impacts just by extrapolating the trends found in the available observations. Our climate model seems likely to provide qualitative hydrological scenarios over large river basins| but it still shows serious biases in the simulation of present-day river flows. Regional hydrological projections remain a challenge for the global climate modelling community and downscaling techniques are still necessary for this purpose. 2897,2002,4,4,Separating methane production and consumption with a field-based isotope pool dilution technique,[1] Despite the importance of methane for climate| it has remained difficult to measure gross rates of methane production and consumption without inducing artifacts. To remedy this| we have developed| tested| and applied a field-based (CH4)-C-13 pool dilution technique. Laboratory tests| sensitivity analyses| and field data indicate that this technique is robust for measuring gross rates of methane production and consumption. In our analyses of 130 soil cores from 17 field sites of differing environmental conditions| we encountered a wide range of gross methane production rates (0.04-930 mg CH4-C m(-2) day(-1))| but encountered a narrower range of consumption rates (0.1-9.2 mg CH4-C m(-2) day(-1)). Unexpectedly| we found that gross production of methane was common (mean = 0.15 mg CH4-C m(-2) day(-1)) even in dry| oxic soils where average soil conditions cannot support methane producers. Through improved measurement of methane turnover in soils| this technique can offer a more fine-grained understanding of how productive and consumptive processes are linked to soil-atmosphere trace gas balances. 5948,2002,3,3,Shade trees reduce building energy use and CO2 emissions from power plants,Urban shade trees offer significant benefits in reducing building air-conditioning demand and improving urban air quality by reducing smog. The savings associated with these benefits vary by climate region and can be up to $200 per tree. The cost of planting trees and maintaining them can vary from $10 to $500 per tree. Tree-planting programs can be designed to have lower costs so that they offer potential savings to communities that plant trees. Our calculations suggest that urban trees play a major role in sequestering CO| and thereby delay global warming. We estimate that a tree planted in Los Angeles avoids the combustion of 18 kg of carbon annually| even though it sequesters only 4.5-11 kg (as it would if growing in a forest). In this sense| one shade tree in Los Angeles is equivalent to three to five forest trees. In a recent analysis for Baton Rouge| Sacramento| and Salt Lake City| we estimated that planting an average of four shade trees per house (each with a top view cross section of 50 m(2)) would lead to an annual reduction in carbon emissions from power plants of 16|000| 41|000| and 9000 t| respectively (the per-tree reduction in carbon emissions is about 10-11 kg per year). These reductions only account for the direct reduction in the net cooling- and heating-energy use of buildings. Once the impact of the community cooling is included| these savings are increased by at least 25%. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5711,2002,2,4,Shallow seismic surveying of an Alpine rock glacier,To map the internal structure and lower boundary of an alpine rock glacier| we recorded three shallow seismic profiles and drilled four similar to70-m-deep holes through to the underlying bedrock. Although analysis of the seismic data using standard reflection processing schemes did not yield conclusive results because of the dominantly low-frequency returned signals and the presence of strong source-generated noise| tomographic inversions of first-arrival times were successful in mapping several critical subsurface features. A thin| low-velocity layer of loose boulders| air voids| and snow was found to extend across the entire surveyed area. Below this layer| two distinct velocity regimes superimposed on a general increase in velocity with depth were identified. A broad regime of high velocities was interpreted to contain boulders with numerous ice-filled voids| whereas an adjacent regime of relatively low velocities was explained in terms of boulders with air- and water-filled voids. Ibis latter region of degraded permafrost| which was unexpected| may be an early result of global warming. The transition from rock glacier to gneissic bedrock was delineated approximately by the 4300-m/s isovelocity line. Although poorly resolved| its depth varied from similar to35 to similar to70 m beneath the surface of the rock glacier. The tomographic inversion results also provided an explanation for the occurrence of strong source-generated noise in our data. Using the derived velocity distributions as input| synthetic shot gathers were calculated using a finite-difference viscoelastic scheme that accounted for surface topography. The resultant synthetic data were dominated by the overwhelming effects of back- and side-scattered waves from shallow heterogeneities and high-amplitude guided phases that originated from the thin| surficial low-velocity zone. Had the guided phases not been correctly identified and eliminated during processing| they would have appeared as reflections in the stacked sections. Since low-velocity layers overlying heterogeneous media are common features of the shallow subsurface| our findings may have implications for a broad range of engineering-scale seismic investigations (e.g.| studies of landfills| rockslides| moraines| talus slopes| alluvial fans). 2872,2002,2,4,Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park| Colorado| USA,Global climate change may impact wildlife populations by affecting local weather patterns| which| in turn| can impact a variety of ecological processes. However| it is not clear that local variations in ecological processes can be explained by large-scale patterns of climate. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climate phenomenon that has been shown to influence the population dynamics of some animals. Although effects of the NAO on vertebrate population dynamics have been studied| it remains uncertain whether it broadly predicts the impact of weather on species. We examined the ability of local weather data and the NAO to explain the annual variation in population. dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucurus) in Rocky Mountain National Park| USA. We performed canonical correlation analysis on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local-climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces were significantly correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOF values of the demographic and local-climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local-climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. However| the NAO index was neither related to the first two EOF of local-climate subspace nor to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover| the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore| local climate had stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than did a large-scale index| i.e.| the NAO index. We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to changing climate may not be adequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns. 5726,2002,3,3,Silicon oxide contact hole etching employing an environmentally benign process,An environmentally benign etching process using a solid material evaporation technique has been investigated for preventing global warming. In this process| a polytetrafluoroethylene is evaporated by a CO2 laser| resulting in production of fluorocarbon species working as the etching species. Therefore| this system employs no perfluorocompound feed gases| which cause global warming| and enables us to design a new plasma chemistry using the solid material. The system was successfully applied to a SiO2 contact hole etching process employing a planar electron cyclotron resonance plasma. The etched profile was successfully controlled by varying the Ar dilution ratio and the process pressure. In a 0.6 mum contact hole and a 0.08 mum trench fabrication process| this novel process enables us to realize high etching performances| where the etching rate Of SiO2| selectivities of SiO2/resist| and SiO2/Si were 340 nm/min| 6.8 and 31| respectively| in optimal condition. To clarify the plasma chemistry using solid material evaporation| CFx (x = 1-3) radical densities and F atom density were measured by infrared diode laser absorption spectroscopy and actinometric optical emission spectroscopy| and fluorocarbon films deposited on SiO2 were analyzed by x-ray. photoelectron spectroscopy. On the basis of these results| the etching mechanism was discussed. (C) 2002 American Vacuum Society. 5708,2002,2,3,Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in the Mississippi Delta,General circulation models (GCMs) project increases of the earth's surface air temperatures and other climate changes in the middle or latter part of the 21st century| and therefore crops such as cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) will be grown in a much different environment than today. To understand the implications of climate change on cotton production in the Mississippi Delta| 30 years (1964 to 1993) of cotton growth and yield at Stoneville| Mississippi| USA| were simulated using the cotton simulation model GOSSYM. The GCM projections showed a nearly 4degreesC rise in average temperature and a decrease in precipitation during the crop growing season. The fertilization effect of an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations from 360 to 540 ppm| without the change in other climatic variables| increased yields by 10% from 1563 to 1713 kg ha(-1)| but when all projected climatic changes were included| yields decreased by 9% from 1563 to 1429 kg ha(-1). The rate of plant growth and development was higher in the future because of enhanced metabolic rates at higher temperatures combined with increased carbon availability. The effect of climate change on cotton production was more drastic in a hot and dry year. Since most of the days with average temperatures above 32degreesC will likely occur during the reproductive phase| irrigation will be needed to satisfy the high water demand| and this reduces boll abscission by lowering canopy temperatures. Therefore| if global warming occurs as projected| fiber production in the future environment will be reduced| and breeding heat-cold-tolerant cultivars will be necessary to sustain cotton production in the US mid-South. Cultural practices such as earlier planting may be used to avoid the flowering of cotton in the high temperatures that occur during mid to late summer. 5766,2002,2,3,Simulation of hydrologic changes associated with global warming,[1] Using the results obtained from a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model with medium computational resolution| we investigated how the hydrology of the continents changes in response to the combined increases of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere| which are determined based upon the IS92a scenario. In order to extract the forced response from natural| internal variability| the difference between the mean of an eight-member ensemble of numerical experiments and a control experiment are used for the present analysis. The global mean surface air temperature of the coupled model increases by about 2.3 degreesC above the preindustrial level by the middle of the 21st century. Accompanying the warming| the global mean rates of both precipitation and evaporation increase by 5.2%| yielding the average increase in the rate of runoff by approximately 7.3%. The increase in the rate of runoff simulated by the model is particularly large in high northern latitudes| where the runoff from some rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob may increase by as much as 20%. Runoff from many European rivers increases by more than 20%. Runoff also increases substantially in some tropical rivers such as the Amazon and Ganges. However| the percentage changes in simulated runoff from many other tropical rivers and middle latitude rivers are smaller with both positive and negative signs. In middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere| soil moisture tends to decrease in summer| whereas it increases in winter. However| in many semi-arid regions in subtropical and middle latitudes| soil moisture is reduced during most of a year. These semi-arid regions include the southwestern part of North America| the northeastern part of China in the Northern Hemisphere| and the region in the vicinity of the Kalahari Desert and southern part of Australia in the Southern Hemisphere. Since a semi-arid region usually surrounds a desert| the reduction of soil moisture in such a region often results in the expansion of the desert. Soil moisture is also reduced during the dry season in many semi-arid regions. For example| it is reduced in the savannahs of Africa and South America during winter and early spring in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere| it is reduced at the Mediterranean coast of Europe in summer. 5690,2002,2,3,Site and temporal variation of soil respiration in European beech| Norway spruce| and Scots pine forests,Global warming and changes in rainfall amount and distribution may affect soil respiration as a major carbon flux between the biosphere and the atmosphere. The objectives of this study were to investigate the site to site and interannual variation in soil respiration of six temperate forest sites. Soil respiration was measured using closed chambers over 2 years under mature beech| spruce and pine stands at both Solling and Unterluss| Germany| which have distinct climates and soils. Cumulative annual CO2 fluxes varied from 4.9 to 5.4 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) at Solling with silty soils and from 4.0 to 5.9 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) at Unterluss with sandy soils. With one exception soil respiration rates were not significantly different among the six forest sites (site to site variation) and between the years within the same forest site (interannual variation). Only the respiration rate in the spruce stand at Unterluss was significant lower than the beech stand at Unterluss in both years. Soil respiration rates of the sandy sites at Unterluss| were limited by soil moisture during the rather dry and warm summer 1999 while soil respiration at the silty Solling site tended to increase. We found a threshold of -80 kPa at 10 cm depth below which soil respiration decreased with increasing drought. Subsequent wetting of sandy soils revealed high CO2 effluxes in the stands at Unterluss. However| dry periods were infrequent| and our results suggest that temporal variation in soil moisture generally had little effect on annual soil respiration rates. Soil temperature at 5 cm and 10 cm depth explained 83% of the temporal variation in soil respiration using the Arrhenius function. The correlations were weaker using temperature at 0 cm (r(2) = 0.63) and 2.5 cm depth (r(2) = 0.81). Mean Q(10) values for the range from 5 to 15 degreesC increased asymptotically with soil depth from 1.87 at 0 cm to 3.46 at 10 cm depth| indicating a large uncertainty in the prediction of the temperature dependency of soil respiration. Comparing the fitted Arrhenius curves for same tree species from Solling and Unterluss| revealed higher soil respiration rates for the stands at Solling than in the respective stands at Unterluss| at the same temperature. A significant positive correlation across all sites between predicted soil respiration rates at 10 degreesC and total phosphorus content and C-to-N ratio of the upper mineral soil indicate a possible effect of nutrients on soil respiration. 2949,2002,4,4,Social and ecological responses to climate change: towards an integrative understanding,A literature review and a survey of professionals whose work deals with climate change indicate that more is known and considered certain by the natural science community concerning responses of natural systems to climate change. There is less of a consensus among social scientists that social systems are directly responding to climate change. The emphasis in the literature on policy and mitigation is corroborated by the survey results| which revealed only social variables that are tightly linked to climate or natural systems. Identifying variables of both natural and social systems that respond to climate change is imperative for a better understanding of the implications of climate change. 5729,2002,3,4,Soil carbon sequestration in China through agricultural intensification| and restoration of degraded and desertified ecosystems,The industrial emission of carbon (C) in China in 2000 was about I Pg yr(-1)| which may surpass that of the United States (1.84 Pg C) by 2020. China's large land area| similar in size to that of the United States| comprises 124 Mha of cropland| 400 Mha of grazing land and 134 Mha of forestland. Terrestrial C pool of China comprises about 35-60 Pg in the forest and 120-186 Pg in soils. Soil degradation is a major issue affecting 145 Mha by different degradative processes| of which 126 Mha are prone to accelerated soil erosion. Total annual loss by erosion is estimated at 5.5 Pg of soil and 15.9 Tg of soil organic carbon (SOC). Erosion-induced emission of C into the atmosphere may be 32-64 Tg yr(-1). The SOC pool progressively declined from the 1930s to 1980s in soils of northern China and slightly increased in those of southern China because of change in land use. Management practices that lead to depletion of the SOC stock are cultivation of upland soils| negative nutrient balance in cropland. residue removal. and soil degradation by accelerated soil erosion and salinization and the like. Agricultural practices that enhance the SOC stock include conversion of upland to rice paddies| integrated nutrient management based on liberal use of biosolids and compost| crop rotations that return large quantities of biomass. and conservation-effective systems. Adoption of recommended management practices can increase SOC concentration in puddled soil. red soil| loess soils| and salt-affected soils. In addition| I soil restoration has a potential to sequester SOC. Total potential of soil C sequestration in China is 105-198 Tg C yr(-1) of SOC and 7-138 Tg C yr(-1) for soil inorganic carbon (SIC). The accumulative potential of soil C sequestration of I I Pg at an average rate of 224 Tg yr(-1) may be realized by 2050. Soil C sequestration potential can offset about 20 per cent of the annual industrial emissions in China. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons| Ltd. 2907,2002,2,3,Soil organic carbon pool of grassland soils on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its global implication,A study of carbon (C) storage in the 0-0.75-m profile Of Soils subtending various types of grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau showed that the organic carbon content of the 1 627 000 km(2) of such lands in the region reaches 33.52 Pg of C. Organic carbon is mainly stored in the meadow and steppe soils of the Plateau| which combined| represents 23.2 Pg of C stored in organic form. This represents 23.44% of China's total organic soil-stored carbon and 2.5% of the global pool of soil carbon as of 1996. Carbon emissions from the grassland soils were estimated based on the two major modes of emission: (i) natural soil respiration and (ii) shifts in net C flux to/from soil due to land-use changes and their potential influence on organic matter decomposition. Annual soil respiration-driven CO2 emissions from the grassland soils of the plateau reached 1.17 P g C year(-1)| accounting for 26.4% of China's total soil respiration and 1.73% of global soil respiration. Because the grassland area accounts for 1.02% of the global terrestrial land and 16.9% of China's total terrestrial land| this CO2 emission rate is significantly higher than the country's mean annual rate (approx. 4.2 Pa C year(-1)) and even higher than the global mean rate (approx. 68 Pg C year(-1)). In the last 30 years| approximately 3.02 Pg C have been emitted from the grassland soils of the plateau due to land-use changes and grassland degradation. The total CO2 emissions rate from the grassland soils of the plateau reached 1.27 Pg C year(-1). Protecting grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is of great importance in limiting global climate change. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5723,2002,3,4,Soil organic matter| biota and aggregation in temperate and tropical soils - Effects of no-tillage,The long-term stabilization of soil organic matter (SOM) in tropical and temperate regions is mediated by soil biota (e. g. fungi| bacteria| roots and earthworms)| soil structure (e. g. aggregation) and their interactions. On average| soil C turnover was twice as fast in tropical compared with temperate regions| but no major differences were observed in SOM quality between the two regions. Probably due to the soil mineralogy dominated by 1: 1 clay minerals and oxides in tropical regions| we found a higher aggregate stability| but a lower correlation between C contents and aggregate stability in tropical soils. In addition| a smaller amount of C associated with clay and silt particles was observed in tropical versus temperate soils. In both tropical and temperate soils| a general increase in C levels (approximate to 325 +/- 113 kg C.ha(-1).yr(-1)) was observed under no-tillage compared with conventional tillage. On average| in temperate soils under no-tillage| compared with conventional tillage| CH(4) uptake (approximate to0.42 +/- 0.10 kg C-CH(4).ha(-1) yr(-1)) increased and N(2)O emissions increased (approximate to 1.95 +/- 0.45 kg N-N(2)O.ha(-1).yr(-1)). These increased N(2)O emissions lead to a negative global warming potential when expressed on a CO(2) equivalent basis. 2941,2002,4,4,Solar irradiance variability and climate,Since November 1978 a complete set of total solar irradiance (TSI) measurements from space is available| yielding a time series of more than 23 years. From measurements made by different space-based radiometers (HF on NIMBUS 7| ACRIM I on SMM| ACRIM II on UARS and VIRGO on SOHO) a composite record of TSI is compiled with an overall precision of order 0.05 Wm(-2) and a secular trend uncertainty of +/-3 ppm/year. This time series is compared with an empirical model of irradiance variability based on sunspot darkening and brightening due to faculae and network. From this comparison the model is calibrated and used to estimate possible changes of TSI in the past| using historical proxies of solar activity. For this purpose| stellar observations provide information about the possible range of solar variability over the last millennium when changes of Earth's climate are well documented. Together| the paleo solar and climate data enable a discussion of the extent of global climate change that can be explained by a variable Sun. 5910,2002,3,4,Solar-powered systems for cooling| dehumidification and air-conditioning,This paper describes current trends in solar-powered air conditioning| which has seen renewed interest in recent years due to the growing awareness of global warming and other environmental problems. Closed-cycle heat-powered cooling devices are based mainly on absorption chillers| a proven technology employing LiBr-water as the working fluid pair. Recent developments in gas-fired systems of this type make available double- and triple-effect chillers with considerably higher COP than their single-effect counterparts| which makes it possible to reduce the amount of solar heat required per kW of cooling. These systems require| however| high-temperature solar collectors. The principles of multi-staging absorption systems are described. An economic comparison is provided which shows the total system cost to be dominated by the solar part of the system. At current prices| the high COP| high temperature alternative is still more costly than the low temperature one. Open-cycle desiccant systems employing either solid or liquid sorbents are described. While the main thrust in research on novel closed-cycle absorption systems has been toward increasing the operating temperature in order to improve efficiency through multi-staging| open-cycle absorption and desiccant systems have been developed for use with low temperature heat sources such as flat plate solar collectors. A novel open-cycle (DER) system is described| which makes it possible to use the solar heat at relatively low temperatures| for producing both chilled water and cold| dehumidified air in variable quantities| as required by the load. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2855,2002,2,4,Some like it hot: Effects of forest clearing on nest temperatures of montane reptiles,Global climate change may affect the upper elevational limits of distribution of montane organisms| especially if those limits are set directly by temperature. Oviparous (egg-laying) reptiles are constrained in this way because of their nesting requirements. In many areas| deforestation has already subjected these animals to small-scale "climate change." Clearing for power lines (hydrocuts) increases solar radiation to potential nest sites| and hence enables these animals to penetrate higher into montane areas than would otherwise be possible. Such small-scale anthropogenic "warming" may offer a useful model system to explore consequences of broader climate change on the distribution and biology of montane organisms. We quantified thermal effects of a hydrocut in montane eucalypt forest in the Brindabella Range of southeastern Australia. The reduced canopy cover| increased duration of sunlight exposure| and higher levels of incident radiation in cleared areas substantially modified thermal regimes in potential nest sites. Orientation and exposure were the most important determinants of nest temperature and predicted the distribution of natural nests. Such cleared corridors (for roads| power lines| ski runs| etc.) may not only extend the upper elevational limit for oviparous reptiles| but may also modify the genetic structure and demography of populations. 5904,2002,2,4,Spatial and seasonal dynamics of surface soil carbon in the Luquillo Experimental Forest| Puerto Rico,We developed a spatially-explicit version of the CENTURY soil model to characterize the storage and flux of soil organic carbon (SOC| 0-30 cm depth) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF)| Puerto Rico as a function of climate| vegetation| and soils. The model was driven by monthly estimates of average air temperature| precipitation| and potential evapotranspiration (PET)| which in turn were simulated as a function of elevation| slope| and aspect using a spatially-explicit and validated model (TOPOCLIM) of solar insolation/microclimate in mountainous areas. We simulated forest gross primary productivity (GPP) and distribution of above- and below-ground biomass production using a forest productivity model (TOPOPROD). Output from TOPOCLIM and TOPOPROD models was used to run the CENTURY soil model for 1200 months under current climate conditions and in response to potential global warming. We validated our version of CENTURY soil model using 69 soil samples taken throughout the LEF. Simulated SOC storage agrees reasonably well with the observed storage (R-2 = 0.71). The simulated SOC storage in the top 30 cm within the LEF is highly variable| ranging from approximately 20-230 Mg/ha. The rates of decomposition were especially sensitive to changes in elevation. Carbon release rates due to decomposition were close to carbon assimilation rates and ranged from 0.6-0.96 Mg/ha per year at high elevations to 1.2-1.68 Mg/ha per year at lower elevations. Our simulations indicated that differences in elevation affect decomposition and SOC content primarily by changing microclimate. Finally| we found that a projected warming of 2.0 degreesC is likely to result in losses of SOC in the lower and higher elevation| but increased storage in the middle elevations in the LEF. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2857,2002,4,2,Spatial and temporal variability in methane emissions from rice paddies: Implications for assessing regional methane budgets,Growing concern over anthropogenic global climate change has intensified the need to develop accurate budgets of atmospheric methane and other greenhouse gases. Globally| flooded rice cultivation represents a major source of atmospheric methane that is expected to grow with human population. However| current estimates of global methane flux from rice paddies vary by roughly 50%. Understanding the sources of this large variability is critical for developing management strategies for atmospheric methane. Using data collected each growing season from Texas| USA| rice paddies over a 9-year period we examined the spatial and temporal sources of methane flux variability. Using standard deviation of the mean methane flux as a measured of variability| we found that accounting for rice plant height and grain yield reduced spatial variability from 25.2 to 17.7% of the mean. Temporal variability over the entire 9-year data set was 49% of the mean| 71% of which was explained by variations in average rice plant height and total nitrogen fertilizer application. The magnitude of temporal and spatial variability suggests that reliance on single-field studies for determination of global methane budgets may be questionable. 2938,2002,2,4,Spatial Modeling of risk in natural resource management,Making decisions in natural resource management involves an understanding of the risk and uncertainty of the outcomes| such as crop failure or cattle starvation| and of the normal spread of the expected production. Hedging against poor outcomes often means lack of investment and slow adoption of new methods. At the household level| production instability can have serious effects on income and food security. At the national level| it can have social and economic impacts that may affect all sectors of society. Crop models such as CERES-Maize are excellent tools for assessing weather-related production variability. WATBAL is a water balance model that can provide robust estimates of the potential growing days for a pasture. These models require large quantities of daily weather data that are rarely available. MarkSim is an application for generating synthetic daily weather files by estimating the third-order Markov model parameters from interpolated climate surfaces. The models can then be run for each distinct point on the map. This paper examines the growth of maize and pasture in dryland agriculture in southern Africa. Weather simulators produce independent estimates for each point on the map; however| we know that a spatial coherence of weather exists. We investigated a method of incorporating spatial coherence into MarkSim and show that it increases the variance of production. This means that all of the farmers in a coherent area share poor yields| with important consequences for food security| markets| transport| and shared grazing lands. The long-term aspects of risk are associated with global climate change. We used the results of a Global Circulation Model to extrapolate to the year 2055. We found that low maize yields would become more likely in the marginal areas| whereas they may actually increase in some areas. The same trend was found with pasture growth. We outline areas where further work is required before these tools and methods can address natural resource management problems in a comprehensive manner at local community and policy levels. 5916,2002,2,4,Status of marine birds of the southeastern Beaufort Sea,This summary and update of information on the marine birds of the southeastern Beaufort Sea is intended to support discussions on how to improve management of marine resources in the Canadian Beaufort Sea region. Perhaps the most outstanding use of the Beaufort Sea by marine birds is the staging during spring migration by hundreds of thousands of eiders and long-tailed ducks in the earl open water off Cape Bathurst and Banks Island. During midsummer| tens of thousands of long-tailed ducks| scoters| scaup| and mergansers moult in the sheltered bays and behind barrier beaches and spits. Although several species of geese| ducks| loons| gulls| and terns nest on islands and in wetlands along the Beaufort Sea coast| this region has relatively few nesting seabirds compared to eastern Arctic Canada and the Bering Sea. Two possible reasons for this are a shortage of cliffs suitable for nesting and a lack of pelagic fish. The five most common sea duck species that occur in the region| long-tailed duck| king eider| common eider| surf scoter| and white-winged scoter| have all declined in numbers since the mid-1970s. Western Arctic brant populations have also declined| although their status within the Beaufort Sea region is unclear. Brant and king eider are the only marine bird species harvested there in substantial numbers. Other threats to Beaufort Sea marine bird populations include oil spills| global warming| coastal development| and contaminants. Certain threats can be managed at a. local level since they are a result of local economic development| but others| such as global warming or loss of critical wintering areas| stem from environmental problems outside the region. Solving these issues will require mutual understanding and commitment on the part of numerous countries. 2896,2002,2,4,Stocks and flows of coarse woody debris across a tropical rain forest nutrient and topography gradient,Large pieces of standing or fallen dead wood| known as coarse woody debris (CWD)| play important roles in temperate forest carbon and nutrient cycles| and affect the abundance and distribution of many classes of organisms. CWD biomass and inputs are poorly documented in tropical rain forests (TRF)| and the causes for their variation at landscape-scales in this biome have not been studied. We quantified standing and fallen CWD stocks and inputs in upland (non-swamp) old-growth TRF at the La Selva Biological Station| Costa Rica. We used a network of 18 0.5 ha plots sited in three edaphic conditions to analyze soil nutrient effects on CWD stocks and inputs controlling for topography| and to examine topographic effects controlling for soil nutrients. The edaphic conditions were flat inceptisols. flat ultisols| and steep ultisols. Chemical analyses confirmed the existence of an almost three-fold gradient in total P and K in the upper I m of soil. We also annually censused all live woody stems greater than or equal to10 cm diameter above buttresses in each plot in September/October from 1997 to 2000 to obtain data on stand structure and dynamics. Fallen CWD stocks averaged 46.3 Mg ha(-1) (22.3 Mg C ha(-1))| while standing CWD averaged 6.5 Mg ha(-1) (3.1 Mg C ha(-1)). There were no significant differences in volume or mass of standing or fallen CWD among edaphic conditions. Annual inputs of CWD averaged 4.9 Mg ha(-1) (2.4 Mg C ha(-1)). Tumover time of fallen CWD was ca. 9 year. Neither stocks nor inputs were correlated with stand structure (number of trees per plot| plot basal area| or plot estimated above-ground biomass). Potential differences in CWD stocks and inputs among sites with different edaphic conditions may have been obscured by a 10-fold variation in tree mortality among plots and a two-fold variation in mean CWD input among years. Analysis of sample variance showed that stocks of CWD were adequately sampled with the 18 0.5 ha plot design. but that inputs were measured with low precision. At La Selva fallen and standing CWD stocks together equaled ca. 33% of estimated above-ground live woody biomass. Tropical rain forest CWD and its associated carbon are intermediate in pool size and turnover rate between fine litter and live trees. Our results show that scaling up TRF CWD estimates to larger spatial scales may be more constrained by the quality of data obtained over single landscapes than by variation due to zonal soil nutrient and topographic conditions. Both the magnitude and vagility of TRF CWD pools are likely to change with global climate change| but the overall direction of change is uncertain. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5827,2002,3,3,Study of the characteristics of CH4 and N2O emission and methods of controlling their emission in the soil-trench wastewater treatment process,In recent years| worldwide concern over global warming has been expressed. It has been reported that domestic wastewater and its treatment processes are sources of CH4 and N2O| designated as greenhouse gases| the reduction of which was noted to be extremely important at the Third Conference of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (Conference Of the Parties; COP3). Here we report a study of a field that has been unexplored until now: analytical evaluation of the properties of the emission of CH4 and N2O and methods of restricting their emission in soil-trench wastewater treatment processes| the use of which is spreading| mainly in developing nations. The results have provided the following information. A field fact-finding survey has confirmed that soil trenches emit 9.3-13.9 g CH4 m(-3) and 8.2-12.2 gN(2)O m(-3) in Japan| and 3.0-4.5 g CH4 m(-3) and 3.3-5.0 g N2O m(-3) in China. The emission properties widely vary according to the structure of the treatment system. The conversion ratio for nitrogen in the wastewater influent to N2O by a soil trench is between 2 and a maximum of 8%| and ranges from a few- to several 10-fold as much as that with the activated sludge method| suggesting that this can be a large source of N2O emission. It has also clearly been shown that the aerobic-anaerobic state inside the treatment system is closely related to its CH4 and N2O emission characteristics. By performing ventilation to maintain the oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) near the trench at an aerobic condition of +200 mV or more| the quantities of CH4 and N2O emitted can be reduced by as much as 50% from the levels without this ventilation| and that this can make a large contribution. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5725,2002,2,3,Summer dryness in a warmer climate: a process study with a regional climate model,Earlier GCM studies have expressed the concern that an enhancement of greenhouse warming might increase the occurrence of summer droughts in mid-latitudes| especially in southern Europe and central North America. This could represent a severe threat for agriculture in the regions concerned| where summer is the main growing season. These predictions must however be considered as uncertain| since most studies featuring enhanced summer dryness in mid-latitudes use very simple representations of the land-surface processes ("bucket" models)| despite their key importance for the issue considered. The current study uses a regional climate model including a land-surface scheme of intermediate complexity to investigate the sensitivity of the summer climate to enhanced greenhouse warming over the American Midwest. A surrogate climate change scenario is used for the simulation of a warmer climate. The control runs are driven at the lateral boundaries and the sea surface by reanalysis data and observations| respectively. The warmer climate experiments are forced by a modified set of initial and lateral boundary conditions. The modifications consist of a uniform 3 K temperature increase and an attendant increase of specific humidity (unchanged relative humidity). This strategy maintains a similar dynamical forcing in the warmer climate experiments| thus allowing to investigate thermodynamical impacts of climate change in comparative isolation. The atmospheric CO2 concentration of the sensitivity experiments is set to four times its pre-industrial value. The simulations are conducted from March 15 to October 1st| for 4 years corresponding to drought (1988)| normal (1986| 1990) and flood (1993) conditions. The numerical experiments do not present any great enhancement of summer drying under warmer climatic conditions. First| the overall changes in the hydrological cycle (especially evapotranspiration) are of small magnitude despite the strong forcing applied. Second| precipitation increases in spring lead to higher soil water recharge during this season| compensating for the enhanced soil moisture depletion occurring later in the year. Additional simulations replacing the plant control on transpiration with a bucket-type formulation presented increased soil drying in 1988| the drought year. This suggests that vegetation control on transpiration might play an important part in counteracting an enhancement of summer drying when soil water gets limited. Though further aspects of this issue would need investigating| our results underline the importance of land-surface processes in climate integrations and suggest that the risk of enhanced summer dryness in the region studied might be less acute than previously assumed| provided the North American general circulation does not change markedly with global warming. 2936,2002,3,4,Sustainability through green chemistry and engineering,The words "sustainability" and "sustainable development" are virtually omnipresent now. But how do we actually achieve the goals of sustainability| and what actions can we take? Green Chemistry and Engineering technologies are providing innovative solutions for today and tomorrow in many areas of product and process research and application. These technologies are helping to address some of the world's most pressing environmental issues| which include global climate change| sustainable energy production| food production and the associated agricultural practices| depletion of non-renewable resources| and the dissipation of toxic and hazardous materials in the environment. We describe the essential nature of Green Chemistry and Engineering in meeting these challenges and describe the specific examples and case studies that are presented in this book. 2852,2002,2,4,Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate,The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate(1) is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system| the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)(2|3)| which exerts highly correlated regional effects on local weather(4). But efforts to attribute synchronous fluctuations of contiguous populations to large-scale climate are confounded by the synchronizing influences of dispersal or trophic interactions(5). Here we report that the dynamics of caribou and musk oxen on opposite coasts of Greenland show spatial synchrony among populations of both species that correlates with the NAO index. Our analysis shows that the NAO has an influence in the high degree of cross-species synchrony between pairs of caribou and musk oxen populations separated by a minimum of 1|000 km of inland ice. The vast distances| and complete physical and ecological separation of these species| rule out spatial coupling by dispersal or interaction. These results indicate that animal populations of different species may respond synchronously to global climate change over large regions. 2866,2002,5,4,Teaching about relict| no-analog landscapes,Only a few very young landforms are the result of currently operating geomorphic processes. Because the time scale for landscape evolution is much longer than the time scale for late Cenozoic climate changes| almost all landscapes are palimpsests| written over repeatedly by various combinations of climate-determined processes. Relict glacial and periglacial landforms are widely identified in mid-latitude regions that have been traditionally described as having been shaped by the "normal" processes of fluvial erosion. Less confidently| deeply weathered regolith and associated relict landforms in the middle and high latitudes are attributed to early Tertiary warmth. However| assemblages of geomorphic processes specific to certain climatic regions| like faunal and floral assemblages| cannot be translated across latitude| so in spite of the many books about the geomorphology of specific modem climate regions| there are few sources that discuss former warm high-latitude| or cold low-latitude| low-altitude geomorphic processes that have no modem analogs. Students and teachers alike who attempt to interpret landforms by extrapolating modem climatic conditions to other latitudinal zones will find their outlook broadened| and they become better prepared to consider the geomorphic impacts of global climate change. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2930,2002,4,4,Techniques for estimating uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies,Methodology for quantifying uncertainty in global climate change studies is reviewed| The focus is on recent developments in statistics| such as hierarchical modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques| that could enable more full-fledged uncertainty analyses to be performed as part of integrated assessments of climate change and its impacts. First an overview of uncertainty analysis| including its sources and how it propagates| is provided. Presently employed techniques in climate change assessments| such as sensitivity| scenario| and Monte Carlo simulation analyses| are then surveyed. Next alternative approaches| based on more formal Statistical theory (especially the Bayesian statistical paradigm)| are described. Finally| some tentative recommendations on strategies for achieving the goal of more reliably quantifying uncertainty in global climate change are made. 5819,2002,5,3,Tectonic controls on greenhouse gas flux to the Paleogene atmosphere from the Gulf of Alaska accretionary prism,The late Paleocene to early Eocene (ca. 61-56 Ma) was a period of long-term global warming| perhaps the warmest in the Cenozoic. Recent modeling suggests that methane loading of the atmosphere| and related development of polar stratospheric clouds| could have been an important forcing mechanism for this period of warm climate. The Gulf of Alaska accretionary prism contained similar to6 x 10(6) km(3) of siliciclastic sediments deposited in trench and slope settings along Alaska's Maastrichtian and Paleogene continental margin. These sediments underwent complex deformation| accretion| and unusual high heat flow soon after deposition. Accretion processes thermally overmatured the sediments during a time that overlaps the 61-56 Ma period of long-term global warming. Assuming a modest average organic carbon content of 0.3 wt% in these sediments| an estimated 8.35 x 10(15) kg of methane were generated in the accretionary prism over an similar to5 m.y. period. This methane was not effectively trapped| and migration pathways to the atmosphere were developed through complexly deformed and emergent continental borderlands. The Gulf of Alaska accretionary prism is a possible source of the atmospheric methane needed to force Paleocene and early Eocene global warming and an example of how tectonic processes can significantly recycle carbon from the geosphere. 5793,2002,2,4,Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration and its effects on ecosystem carbon budget: nonlinearity begets surprises,Nonlinearity is a salient feature in all complex systems| and it certainly characterizes biogeochemical cycles in ecosystems across a wide range of scales. Soil carbon emission is a major source of uncertainty in estimating the terrestrial carbon budget at the ecosystem level and above. Due to the lack of consideration of the nonlinearity in temperature sensitivity of soil respiration| several commonly used ecosystem models produce substantially different estimates of soil respiration with the same or similar model input. In this paper we demonstrated that the response of soil respiration to changes in temperature sensitivity is nonlinear and. thus| that the oversimplified formulations may significantly reduce the accuracy of ecosystem models in predicting carbon fluxes. To alleviate this problem| we have developed a general model of temperature sensitivity of soil respiration that explicitly considers this nonlinearity. The model was supported by our field measurements from a forest ecosystem| and used to assess the uncertainty in estimating the soil CO2 efflux with several commonly used ecosystem models. Our results indicated that the variations and nonlinearity of the soil respiration-temperature relationship and its dependence on moisture may have important implications for ecosystem carbon modeling at regional and global scales. In other words| 'small causes' may lead to 'large effects' in complex ecosystems in terms of carbon dynamics. In particular| when the variability in temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was incorporated in the several commonly used ecosystem models| the carbon source-sink relationship for terrestrial ecosystems under future global warming scenarios became dramatically different from those reported previously. Thus| we advocate that confidence limits are both necessary and feasible for simulated carbon budget from ecosystem models. Based on field measurements and model simulations| our study provides useful information for computing such confidence limits. In addition| our new model of temperature sensitivity of soil respiration seems more general and yet realistic| and can improve the accuracy of ecosystem models in predicting carbon fluxes at large scales. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5777,2002,2,4,Temperature| light| and the dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) content of Emiliania huxleyi (Prymnesiophyceae),The precursor of the volatile S-compound dimethylsulfide (DMS)| dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP)| is produced by marine microalgae| notably by Prymnesiophyceae. The production of DMSP by an axenic isolate of Emiliania huxleyi (Lohm.) Hay et Mohler under different temperature and light conditions was studied as a first step towards understanding the role of DMSP-producing algae in climate regulation. Both light and temperature affected growth rate and cell size in batch cultures| but the concentration of DMSP in the cells was dependent on temperature only: at low temperature DMSP accumulated. This physiological response| assumed to be characteristic of DMSP-producing microalgae in general| is in line with the correlation that has been found between elevated concentrations of the DMS oxidation product MSA in ice core slices corresponding with low sea surface temperatures. Apparently| DMS does not play the role in climate regulation formulated in the CLAW hypothesis that proposes a feedback mechanism in which elevated temperatures lead to an increase in albedo via DMS-derived cloud condensation nuclei. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2939,2002,4,4,Temporal and spatial variability of chlorophyll-a in the western subarctic Pacific determined from satellite and ship observations from 1997 to 1999,The objectives of this study are to describe and understand the processes controlling the temporal and spatial variability of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) in the subarctic northwestern Pacific Ocean from 1997 to 1999. Remotely sensed data from multi sensors| including ocean color (OCTS and SeaWiFS)| sea-surface temperature (SST| AVHRR)| and wind (SSM/I) datasets were utilized for the purpose of this study. Ocean-color imagery clearly showed seasonal and interannual variability in the spatial abundance and distribution of chl-a in the study area. Chl-a concentrations were generally low (0.53 +/- 0.24 mg m(-3)) for most part of the year| except for a few peaks (1.0-2.0 mg m(-3)) observed in the spring and fall bloom seasons (May| June| September| and October). Chl-a concentrations (> 10 mg m(-3)) were consistently high along the Kuril Islands and in the coastal waters around the Kamchatka Peninsula| and in 1998 they were clearly higher than in 1999. The Western Subarctic Gyre (WSG) was characterized by positive sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) during the summer to fall of 1998. These anomalies appear to be a high-latitude response to 1997/1998 ENSO event. High concentrations of chl-a appeared in WSG in September-November only in 1998. We suggest that the high chl-a around the WSG from summer to fall in 1998 was facilitated by (1) negative SSTA in winter| in spite of the negative wind anomaly| which provided larger amount of nutrients to the sea surface| (2) positive wind anomaly from April to June| which might cause light limitation of the phytoplankton growth| due to deepening of the surface-mixed layer in summer| and (3) positive SSTA| even with the slightly positive wind anomaly| which was accompanied with the water-column stabilization and hence recovered light limitation of the phytoplankton. Warmer SST also might have enhanced the phytoplankton growth. During summer to fall in 1999| the phytoplankton biomass between 42degreesN and 43degreesN along 165degreesE was greater than in other years. The enhanced chl-a concentration coincided with a distinct frontal temperature gradient located between 40degreesN and 45degreesN in September 1998 and 1999. The peak chl-a concentration in September 1999 (> 2.0 mg m(-3)) within the temperature front was much larger than in L998 (about 0.7 mg m(-3)). The position of this front in September 1999 (41degreesN) was south of its position in 1998 (43degreesN). Convergence of chl-a is linked to the temperature gradient and southward expansion of well-mixed subarctic water that is cold| low in salinity| and nutrient-rich. Our results showed significant interannual biological variability| and illustrate how remote sensing with multi sensors can aid in monitoring relationships between local ecosystems and global climate change. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2877,2002,2,4,Temporal variability in arctic fox diet as reflected in stable-carbon isotopes; the importance of sea ice,Consumption of marine foods by terrestrial predators can lead to increased predator densities| potentially impacting their terrestrial resources. For arctic foxes (Alopex lagopus)| access to such marine foods in winter depends on sea ice| which is threatened by global climate change. To quantify the importance of marine foods (seal carrion and seal pups) and document temporal variation in arctic fox diet I measured the ratios of the stable isotopes of carbon (C-13/C-12) in hair of arctic foxes near Cape Churchill| Manitoba| from 1994 to 1997. These hair samples were compared to the stable carbon isotope ratios of several prey species. Isotopic differences between seasonally dimorphic pelage types indicated a diet with a greater marine content in winter when sea ice provided access to seal carrion. Annual variation in arctic fox diet in both summer and winter was correlated with lemming abundance. Marine food sources became much more important in winters with low lemming populations| accounting for nearly half of the winter protein intake following a lemming decline. Potential alternative summer foods with isotopic signatures differing from lemmings included goose eggs and caribou| but these were unavailable in winter. Reliance on marine food sources in winter during periods of low lemming density demonstrates the importance of the sea ice as a potential habitat for this arctic fox population and suggests that a continued decline in sea ice extent will disrupt an important link between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems. 5917,2002,3,4,Testing 100-year global warming potentials: Impacts on compliance costs and abatement profile,The comprehensive approach adopted in the Kyoto Protocol relies on the use of 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to convert emissions of various gases to `carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents'. This particular set of weights| or metric| has a limited capacity to handle the large variations in atmospheric adjustment times| and emissions of various gases that are equal in terms of `CO2 equivalents' will not result in equal climatic effects. In this study| the 100-year GWP metric is assessed in the context of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. Using data from Norway| we explore how abatement policy formulated on the basis of 100-year GWPs compares to policies based on other metrics in terms of compliance costs and abatement profile| that is| the composition of the basket of gases reduced. We found that the costs for Norway change significantly when other metrics are used| but changes in the composition of the basket of gases are moderate. However| since compliance costs can be controlled through other mechanisms for post-Kyoto Protocols| the use of 100-year GWPs versus other metrics has little impact on the general formulation of Norwegian climate policy. 5945,2002,4,4,The application of size-robust trend statistics to global-warming temperature series,In this note| new evidence is provided confirming that global temperature series spanning back to the mid-1800s have statistically significant positive trends. Although there is a growing consensus that global temperatures are on the rise systematically| some recent studies have pointed out that strong serial correlation (or a unit root) in global temperature data could| in theory| generate spurious evidence of a significant positive trend. In other words| strong serially correlated data can mimic trending behavior over fixed periods of time. A serial-correlation-robust trend test recently was proposed that controls for the possibility of spurious evidence due to strong serial correlation. This new test is valid whether the errors are stationary or have a unit root (strong serial correlation). This test also has the attractive feature that it does not require estimates of serial correlation nuisance parameters. The test is applied to six annual global temperature series| and it provides strong evidence that global temperature series have positive trends that are statistically significant even when controlling for the possibility of strong serial correlation. The point estimates of the rate of increase in the trend suggest that temperatures have risen about 0.5 degreesC (1.0 degreesF) 100 yr(-1). If the analysis is restricted to twentieth-century data| many of the point estimates are closer to 0.6 degreesC. 5830,2002,4,3,The background atmospheric concentrations of cyclic perfluorocarbon tracers determined by negative ion-chemical ionization mass spectrometry,The background atmospheric mixing ratios for a range of cyclic perfluorocarbons (cyclic-PFCs)| widely used in atmospheric dispersion studies| have been measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in negative ion-chemical ionization mode. Background concentrations range from < 1 fl l(-1) to > 10fl l(-1)| where femtolitre is expressed as parts in 10(15) (ppqv). Because of their very long atmospheric lifetimes ( > 3000 yr) the present day concentrations represent the accumulated emissions from all sources| although significant commercial production did not commence until the 1960s. Cyclic-PFCs are potent greenhouse gases; however| their atmospheric concentrations are currently so low as to make an insignificant contribution to global warming. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5812,2002,2,4,The change in oceanic O-2 inventory associated with recent global warming,Oceans general circulation models predict that global warming may cause a decrease in the oceanic O-2 inventory and an associated O-2 outgassing. An independent argument is presented here in support of this prediction based on observational evidence of the ocean's biogeochemical response to natural warming. On time scales from seasonal to centennial| natural O-2 flux/heat flux ratios are shown to occur in a range of 2 to 10 nmol of O-2 per joule of warming| with larger ratios typically occurring at higher latitudes and overlongertime scales. The ratios are several times larger than would be expected solely from the effect of heating on the O-2 solubility| indicating that most of the O-2 exchange is biologically mediated through links between heating and stratification. The change in oceanic O-2 inventory through the 1990s is estimated to be 0.3 +/- 0.4 X 10(14) mol of O-2 per year based on scaling the observed anomalous long-term ocean warming by natural O-2 flux/heating ratios and allowing for uncertainty due to decadal variability. Implications are discussed for carbon budgets based on observed changes in atmospheric O-2/N-2 ratio and based on observed changes in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon. 2904,2002,5,4,The coastal oasis: ice age springs on emerged continental shelves,As ice caps expanded during each of the last five glaciations| sea level fell at least 120 m below current levels| exposing continental shelves worldwide to create vast areas of new land. As a result of this exposure| the ecology| climate| pedology| and geology of global shorelines were dramatically transformed| which in turn altered the carbon cycle and biodynamics of this new landmass. In this paper| we focus on a little-known hydrogeological phenomenon that may have had profound influences on biodiversity| human evolution| and carbon storage during periods of severe climatic stress of the Pleistocene Ice Ages. We propose that freshwater springs appeared on emerged continental shelves because falling sea level not only drew down and steepened the coastal water table gradient| thus increasing the hydrostatic head on inland groundwater aquifers| but also removed up to 120 m of hydrostatic pressure on the shelf| further enhancing groundwater flow. We call this phenomenon the "coastal oasis"| a model based on three well-established facts. (1) In all coastal areas of the world| continental aquifers discharge a continuous flow of fresh water to the oceans| (2) Many submarine sedimentary and morphological features| as well as seepages and flow of fresh water| are known on and below the shelves from petroleum explorations| deep-sea drilling programs| and mariners' observations. (3) Hydraulic principles (Darcy's law) predict increased groundwater flow at the coast when sea level drops because the piezometric head increases by the equivalent depth of sea-level lowering. Sea level is presently in a relatively high interglacial position. Direct observation and verification of our model is difficult and must rely on explorations of terrain that are now deeply submerged on continental shelves. For this reason| we draw parallels between our predicted model and simple| well-exposed terrestrial hydrological systems| such as present-day springs that appear on the exposed shores of lakes whose free-air water levels fell during periods of aridity. Such modem examples are seen in the Caspian Sea and Dead Sea| the Afar Depression| and the Sahara Desert. These modem analogues demonstrate the likelihood that underground water will be more abundant on emerged shelves during sea-level fall| causing springs| oases| and wetlands to appear. Our model creates an apparent paradox: in tropical and subtropical arid lands| such as most of Africa| sea-level fall during hyperarid glacial phases would produce abundant fresh water flow onto emerged continental shelves as the continental interior desiccated. Thus| emergent shoreline springs provided new habitats for terrestrial vegetation and animals displaced from the interior by increasingly arid conditions| shrinking ecosystems| and dwindling water supplies| Such a scenario would have had a profound influence on the vegetation that spreads naturally to colonize the emerged shelves during glacio-eustatic sea-level lowstands| as well as creating new habitats for terrestrial mammals| including early humans. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
5960,2002,4,3,The domino effect in climate change,This paper provides a concise summary of the natural and the anthropogenic greenhouse effect and the major causes for climate change. This summary may be particularly accessible for readers who are not familiar with natural sciences. Building on these explanations| we develop a simplifying atmospheric model that demonstrates a widely unknown aspect of global warming: the greenhouse effect enhances its own causes and| as a repercussion| induces a further global warming. This effect| referred to as domino effect| is based on the additional production of heat in the atmosphere| happening substantively while heat passes our atmosphere on its way to outer space. On the basis of our considerations| in principle| technological efficiency improvements appear to be an attractive measure for mitigating global warming. 2916,2002,2,4,The effect of single tree species on soil microbial activities related to C and N cycling in the Siberian artificial afforestation experiment - Tree species and soil microbial activities,The effects of grassland conversion to forest vegetation and of individual tree species on microbial activity in Siberia are largely unstudied. Here| we examined the effects of the six most commonly dominant tree species in Siberian forests (Scots pine| spruce| Arolla pine| larch| aspen and birch) on soil C and N mineralization| N2O-reduction and N2O production during denitrification 30 years after planting. We also documented the effect of grassland conversion to different tree species on microbial activities at different soil depths and their relationships to soil chemical properties. The effects of tree species and grassland conversion were more pronounced on N than on C transformations. Tree species and grassland conversion did significantly alter substrate-induced respiration (SIR) and basal respiration| but the differences were not as large as those observed for N transformations. Variances in SIR and basal respiration within species were markedly lower than those in N transformations. Net N mineralization| net nitrification| and denitrification potential were highest under Arolla pine and larch| intermediate under deciduous aspen and birch| and lowest beneath spruce and Scots pine. Tree species caused similar effects on denitrification potential| net N mineralization| and net nitrification| but effects on N2O reduction rate were idiosyncratic| indicating a decoupling of N2O production and reduction. We predict that deciduous species should produce more N2O in the field than conifers| and that Siberian forests will produce more N2O if global climate change alters tree species composition. Basal respiration and SIR showed inverse responses to tree species: when basal respiration increased in response to a given tree species| SIR declined. SIR may have been controlled by NH4+ availability and related therefore to N mineralization| which was negatively affected by grassland conversion. Basal respiration appeared to be less limited by NH4+ and controlled mostly by readily available organic C (DOC)| which was higher in concentration under forests than in grassland and therefore basal respiration was higher in forested soils. We conclude that in the Siberian artificial afforestation experiment| soil C mineralization was not limited by N. 5955,2002,2,5,The effect of solar activity on carbon dioxide concentration in the lower atmosphere,In the last few years| the carbon dioxide content has been increasing from year to year| possibly due to human activity| and could be an artificial source of global warming. Evidence of a statistically reliable effect of solar activity on the variations in the CO2 content in the lower atmosphere has been presented| and the global increase in CO2| depending on the GCR flux and solar activity| is explained. 5775,2002,2,4,The effects of large-scale afforestation and climate change on water allocation in the Macquarie River catchment| NSW| Australia,Widespread afforestation has been proposed as one means of addressing the increasing dryland and stream salinity problem in Australia| However| modelling results presented here suggest that large-scale tree planting will substantially reduce river flows and impose costs on downstream water users if planted in areas of high runoff yield. Streamflow reductions in the Macquarie River| NSW| Australia are estimated for a number of tree planting scenarios and global warming forecasts. The modelling framework includes the Sacramento rainfall-runoff model and IQQM| a streamflow routing tool| as well as various global climate model outputs from which daily rainfall and potential evaporation data files have been generated in OzClim| a climate scenario generator. For a 10% increase in tree cover in the headwaters of the Macquarie| we estimate a 17% reduction in inflows to Burrendong Dam. The drying trend for a mid-range scenario of regional rainfall and potential evaporation caused by a global warming of 0.5degreesC may cause an additional 5% reduction in 2030| These flow reductions will decrease the frequency of bird-breeding events in Macquarie Marshes (a RAMSAR protected wetland) and reduce the security of supply to irrigation areas downstream. Inter-decadal climate variability is predicted to have a very significant influence on catchment hydrologic behaviour. A further 20% reduction in flows from the long-term historical mean is possible| should we move into an extended period of below average rainfall years| such as occurred in eastern Australia between 1890 and 1948. Because current consumptive water use is largely adapted to the wetter conditions of post 1949| a return to prolonged dry periods would cause significant environmental stress given the agricultural and domestic water developments that have been instituted. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5679,2002,2,4,The evolution of extreme temperatures in the Central England temperature record,[1] The Central England daily mean temperature record (CET) extends from 1772 to present. An extreme value analysis based on the Generalized Pareto distributions shows that both cold winter and hot summer extremes have evolved differently from their means. The reasons for the trends in extremes occurrence are related to changes in the underlying atmospheric circulation. Of particular interest are the winter extreme cold days. In recent years| around 80% of these occurred on anticyclonic or easterly type days| compared to only 50% at the beginning of the 20th century. This change is related to cooling temperatures on these type days since the 1930s. Such a trend has placed an effective cap on any upward trend in winter cold extremes related to global warming so far. 5868,2002,4,4,The Gaia hypothesis: Fact| theory| and wishful thinking,Organisms can greatly affect their environments| and the feedback coupling between organisms and their environments can shape the evolution of both. Beyond these generally accepted facts| the Gaia hypothesis advances three central propositions: (1) that biologically mediated feedbacks contribute to environmental homeostasis| (2) that they make the environment more suitable for life| and (3) that such feedbacks should arise by Darwinian natural selection. These three propositions do not fare well under close scrutiny. (1) Biologically mediated feedbacks are not intrinsically homeostatic. Many of the biological mechanisms that affect global climate are destabilizing| and it is likely that the net effect of biological feedbacks will be to amplify| not dampen| global warming. (2) Nor do biologically mediated feedbacks necessarily enhance the environment| although it will often appear as if this were the case| simply because natural selection will favor organisms that do well in their environments - which means doing well under the conditions that they and their co-occurring species have created. (3) Finally| Gaian feedbacks can evolve by natural selection| but so can anti-Gaian feedbacks. Daisyworld models evolve Gaian feedback because they assume that any trait that improves the environment will also give a reproductive advantage to its carriers (over other organisms that share the same environment). In the real world| by contrast| natural selection favors any trait that gives its carriers a reproductive advantage over its non-carriers| whether it improves or degrades the environment (and thereby benefits or hinders its carriers and non-carriers alike). Thus Gaian and anti-Gaian feedbacks are both likely to evolve. 5859,2002,2,4,The genome of M-acetivorans reveals extensive metabolic and physiological diversity,Methanogenesis| the biological production of methane| plays a pivotal role in the global carbon cycle and contributes significantly to global warming. The majority of methane in nature is derived from acetate. Here we report the complete genome sequence of an acetate-utilizing methanogen| Methanosarcina acetivorans C2A. Methanosarcineae are the most metabolically diverse methanogens| thrive in a broad range of environments| and are unique among the Archaea in forming complex multicellular structures. This diversity Is reflected In the genome of M. acetivorans. At 5|751|492 base pairs it is by far the largest known archaeal genome. The 4524 open reading frames code for a strikingly wide and unanticipated variety of metabolic and cellular capabilities. The presence of novel methyltransferases indicates the likelihood of undiscovered natural energy sources for methanogenesis| whereas the presence of single-subunit carbon monoxide dehydrogenases raises the possibility of nonmethanogenic growth. Although motility has not been observed in any Methanosarcineae| a flagellin gene cluster and two complete chemotaxis gene clusters were identified. The availability of genetic methods| coupled with its physiological and metabolic diversity| makes M. acetivorans a powerful model organism for the study of archaeal biology. 2880,2002,4,3,The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases,Our paper documents that land-use change impacts regional and global climate through the surface-energy budget| as well as through the carbon cycle. The surface-energy budget effects may be more important than the carbon-cycle effects. However| land-use impacts on climate cannot be adequately quantified with the usual metric of 'global warming potential'. A new metric is needed to quantify the human disturbance of the Earth's surface-energy budget. This 'regional climate change potential' could offer a new metric for developing a more inclusive climate protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a mechanism to monitor potential local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity. 5899,2002,2,4,The influence of thermal ecology on the distribution of three nymphalid butterflies,1. Studies have shown that many adult and immature insects are able to maintain body temperature well above| and often independently of| ambient temperature in the presence of direct solar radiation. They may do so directly by basking| or indirectly via microhabitat choice| The implications for this are often ignored in development models that serve to predict species' responses to climate change. 2. To investigate the difference in development times attributable to solar input| field development of Aglais urticae| Inachis io and Polygonia c-album larvae (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) was followed both in a natural open situation and in an artificially shaded environment. Each species completed development more quickly in the open| equivalent to a 20%| 10% and 15% reduction in development time| respectively. 3. Observed development times in the artificially shaded environment were used to compare the techniques of rate summation and degree-day modelling. Rate summation models were found to describe development in the shade best for A. urticae and I. io| although a degree-day model performed best for P c-album| possible reasons for which are discussed. The best-performing models for each species were modified to include larval thermo regulation data| assuming a linear relationship between body and ambient temperatures during the measured sunshine hours each day| and tested against observed development times in the open situation. Times for 50% adult emergence were predicted exactly for A. urticae| and to an accuracy of 1 day for I. io and 5 days for P c-album. 4. The models were tested further using climate data from 128 UK Meteorological Office weather stations across England| Wales and Scotland. Thermo regulation model predictions matched observed UK distribution and voltinism better than predictions made by the standard unmodified models. It was estimated that larval thermoregulation allows A. urticae and 1. io populations to persist approximately 200 km further north than would otherwise be possible| and that the extent of bivoltinism may be shifted northwards by around 300 km. 5. These results have significant implications for predicting the effects of global warming on insects' geographical ranges| the potential distributions of invasive species| and the phenology and voltinism of introduced biocontrol agents as one component of their likely success. 5897,2002,3,4,The inhibition of marine nitrification by ocean disposal of carbon dioxide,In an attempt to reduce the threat of global warming| it has been proposed that the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations be reduced by the ocean disposal of CO2 from the flue gases of fossil fuel-fired power plants. The release of large amounts Of CO2 into mid or deep ocean waters will result in large plumes of acidified seawater with pH values ranging from 6 to 8. In an effort to determine whether these CO2-induced pH changes have any effect on marine nitrification processes| surficial (euphotic zone) and deep (aphotic zone) seawater samples were sparged with CO2 for varying time durations to achieve a specified pH reduction| and the rate of microbial ammonia oxidation was measured spectrophotometrically as a function of pH using an inhibitor technique. For both seawater samples taken from either the euphotic or aphotic zone| the nitrification rates dropped drastically with decreasing pH. Relative to nitrification rates in the original seawater at pH 8| nitrification rates were reduced by ca. 50% at pH 7 and more than 90% at pH 6.5. Nitrification was essentially completely inhibited at pH 6. These findings suggest that the disposal Of CO2 into mid or deep oceans will most likely result in a drastic reduction of ammonia oxidation rates within the pH plume and the concomitant accumulation of ammonia instead of nitrate. It is unlikely that ammonia will reach the high concentration levels at which marine aquatic organisms arc known to be negatively affected. However. if the ammonia-rich seawater from inside the pH plume is upwelled into the euphotic zone| it is likely that changes in phytoplankton abundance and community structure will occur. Finally| the large-scale inhibition of nitrification and the subsequent reduction of nitrite and nitrate concentrations could also result in a decrease of denitrification rates which| in turn| could lead to the buildup of nitrogen and unpredictable eutrophication phenomena. Clearly. more research on the environmental effects of ocean disposal of CO2 is needed to determine whether the potential costs related to marine ecosystem disturbance and disruption can be justified in terms of the perceived benefits that may be achieved by temporarily delaying global warming. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2923,2002,4,3,The oxidation of organic compounds in the troposphere and their global warming potentials,Oxidation by hydroxyl radicals is the main removal process for organic compounds in the troposphere. This oxidation acts as a source of ozone and as a removal process for hydroxyl and peroxy radicals| thereby reducing the efficiency of methane oxidation and promoting the build-up of methane. Emissions of organic compounds may therefore lead to the build-up of two important radiatively-active trace gases: methane and ozone. Emission pulses of 10 organic compounds were followed in a global 3-D Lagrangian chemistry-transport model to quantify their indirect greenhouse gas impacts through changes induced in the tropospheric distributions of methane and ozone. The main factors influencing the global warming potentials of the 10 organic compounds were found to be their spatial emission patterns| chemical reactivity and transport| molecular complexity and oxidation products formed. The indirect radiative forcing impacts of organic compounds may be large enough that ozone precursors should be considered in the basket of trace gases through which policy-makers aim to combat global climate change. 5834,2002,2,4,The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture,This paper intends to estimate the potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agricultural sector. Yield response regression models are used to investigate the climate change's impact on 60 crops. A price-endogenous mathematical programming model is then used to simulate the welfare impacts of yield changes under various climate change scenarios. Results suggest that both warming and climate variations have a significant but non-monotonic impact on crop yields. Society as a whole would not suffer from warming| but a precipitation increase may be devastating to farmers. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5893,2002,2,4,The proposed connection between clouds and cosmic rays: cloud behaviour during the past 50-120 years,Several authors have suggested that a link exists between the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and cloudiness. Here we review the evidence for such a connection from studies of cloud factors using both satellite and ground-based data. In particular| we search for evidence for the low cloud decrease predicted by the rising levels of solar activity and the low cloud-cosmic ray flux correlation indicated by satellite data. Sunshine and synoptic cloud records both indicate that the global total cloud cover has increased during the past century. This increase in total cloud cover argues against a dominating role by solar activity (via GCR) over cloud formation on centennial time scales. Either the predicted low cloud decrease has not occurred or the medium-high level cloud has increased to a greater extent than low cloud has decreased. As there is no accurate long term data available on low cloud behaviour during the last century| we are not able to totally dismiss the link between GCR and cloudiness| but we list a number of arguments for and against the proposed cosmic ray-cloud connection. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5697,2002,2,4,The relative impacts of daytime and night-time warming on photosynthetic capacity in Populus deltoides,In order to investigate the relative impacts of increases in day and night temperature on tree carbon relations| we measured night-time respiration and daytime photosynthesis of leaves in canopies of 4-m-tall cottonwood (Populus deltoides Bartr. ex Marsh) trees experiencing three daytime temperatures (25| 28 or 31 degreesC) and either (i) a constant nocturnal temperature of 20 degreesC or (ii) increasing nocturnal temperatures (15| 20 or 25 degreesC). In the first (day warming only) experiment| rates of night-time leaf dark respiration (R-dark) remained constant and leaves displayed a modest increase (11%) in light-saturated photosynthetic capacity (A(max)) during the day (1000-1300 h) over the 6 degreesC range. In the second (dual night and day warming) experiment| R-dark increased by 77% when nocturnal temperatures were increased from 15 degreesC (0.36 mumol m(-2) s(-1)) to 25 degreesC (0.64 mumol m(-2) s(-1)). A(max) responded positively to the additional nocturnal warming| and increased by 38 and 64% in the 20/28 and 25/31 degreesC treatments| respectively| compared with the 15/25 degreesC treatment. These increases in photosynthetic capacity were associated with strong increases in the maximum carboxylation rate of rubisco (V-cmax) and ribulose-1|5-bisphosphate (RuBP) regeneration capacity mediated by maximum electron transport rate (J(max)). Leaf soluble sugar and starch concentration| measured at sunrise| declined significantly as nocturnal temperature increased. The nocturnal temperature manipulation resulted in a significant inverse relationship between Amax and pre-dawn leaf carbohydrate status. Independent measurements of the temperature response of photosynthesis indicated that the optimum temperature (T-opt) acclimated fully to the 6 degreesC range of temperature imposed in the daytime warming. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that elevated night-time temperature increases photosynthetic capacity during the following light period through a respiratory-driven reduction in leaf carbohydrate concentration. These responses indicate that predicted increases in night-time minimum temperatures may have a significant influence on net plant carbon uptake. 5875,2002,3,2,The relative importance of sources of greenhouse-gas emissions: Comparison of global through subnational perspectives,Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are widely expected to cause global warming and other climatic changes. It is important to establish priorities for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions| so that resources can be allocated efficiently and effectively. This is a global problem| and it is possible| on a global scale| to identify those activities whose emissions have the greatest potential for enhancing the greenhouse effect. However| perspectives from smaller scales must be appreciated| because it is on scales down to the local level that response measures will be implemented| This paper analyzes the relative importance of emissions from the many individual sources| on scales ranging from global to national to subnational. Individual country perspectives and proposed policy measures and those of subnational political entities exhibit some commonalities but differ among themselves and from a global-scale perspective in detail. 5926,2002,4,4,The role of sapwood temperature variations within Pinus cembra on calculated stem respiration: Implications for upscaling and predicted global warming,Only a few studies focused on variations in stem respiration within entire trees related to variations within sapwood temperature. In this study| sapwood temperature was measured in 1 cm depth at four positions in the stem of a 50-year-old cembran pine (Pinus cembra L.) throughout the year 1995. These temperature data were used to estimate variations in CO2 efflux within the stem| assuming that the temperature dependence of respiration was constant and that there is no difference in the number of living cells in the xylem throughout the entire stem. Respiration was compared on a surface area basis. South-facing sapwood temperatures were significantly higher than air temperature when compared to north-facing sapwood temperature. As a consequence annual respiration was up to 13% higher on the south than on the north side of the tree. Thus| within-stem variations in temperature have been taken into account when scaling up stem respiration from data obtained from one individual position within a tree. 2884,2002,4,4,The role of science in federal policy development on a regional to global scale: Personal commentary,Nutrient enrichment of coastal waters is an example of the large-scale| highly complex environmental challenges facing decision makers today. Conventional monitoring networks and advanced observational capabilities permit the detection of changes in the environment at continental to global scales (e.g.| hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico| aerosol plumes stretching across the ocean| global atmospheric enrichment of carbon dioxide). Much more knowledge is needed| however| to fully understand the societal consequences of environmental change and of actions taken to address diem. This paper discusses the emerging role of assessment in developing effective U.S. policy responses to large-scale| complex environmental change while improving the scientific understanding of the problem. In the cases of global climate change and coastal hypoxia| the U.S. Congress passed legislation authorizing assessments recognizing that decision making must proceed in the face of scientific uncertainty. Evaluating the state of knowledge is usually the first step in an assessment in order to provide a picture of what is known and where there are knowledge gaps. Assessments should also provide the policy maker with an idea of the level of uncertainty| how long it may take to reduce the uncertainty| what information is most critical to resolve| and the consequences and benefits of the various management options. In this paper I draw upon several examples from national assessments| including those of climate change impacts on the U.S. and relationships between Mississippi River water and Gulf of Mexico water quality| to illustrate the strengths and difficulties of using science and assessment to inform the policy process. 5782,2002,2,3,The roles of radiation and dynamical processes in the El Nino-like response to global warming,The current understanding of ENSO does not foreshadow how it might change as a consequence of global warming due to an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration. A number of global coupled climate models simulate a "mean" El Nino-like change in tropical Pacific temperatures| precipitation| and winds but at least one model exhibits a La Nina-like pattern and others a more or less homogeneous warming in the tropics with little of either pattern. The mechanisms leading to a mean positive El Nino-like pattern (PEP) are studied in simulations with the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled general circulation model. The changes associated with the PEP are compared with| and are shown to closely resemble| those observed for the positive El Nino phase of the ENSO oscillation in the current climate including the anomalies in SST| precipitation and atmospheric circulation| the changes of vertically integrated energy and heat transports in the atmosphere| and changes in the sign and magnitude of radiative energy balance terms. The PEP in the model is supported by changes in oceanic heat transport and surface longwave radiative flux in the face of solar radiative flux and evaporative flux changes which act to damp it away. There is negative cloud-radiation feedback associated with the PEP| as with the observed El Nino. Negative cloud feedback by itself does not| therefore| preclude the existence of a PEP response to GHG forcing. The climatological PEP does not exhibit an oceanic export of energy from the tropical Pacific. as inferred for the regular El Nino| event| but rather an oceanic import of energy. Nevertheless the PEP provides an effective means of regulating climate warming and the energy budget in the tropical Pacific which is accomplished through energy transports out of the region by the atmosphere. The PEP is seen as a more or less straightforward manifestation of the feedback mechanism proposed by Bjerknes and as a physically plausible response to GHG-induced climate warming. 5890,2002,3,3,The time path and implementation of carbon sequestration,We develop a dynamic model to investigate the optimal time paths of carbon emissions| sequestration| and the carbon stock. We show that carbon sinks should be utilized as early as possible| and carbon flow into sinks should last until the atmospheric carbon concentration is stabilized. We rule out any cyclical patterns of carbon sequestration and release. We propose and assess three mechanisms to efficiently introduce sequestration into a carbon permit trading market: a pay-as-you-go system| a variable-length-contract system and a carbon annuity account system. Although the three mechanisms may not be equally feasible to implement. they are all efficient. 5892,2002,4,4,The use of remote sensing for predictive modeling of schistosomiasis in China,The development of predictive models of the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis are hampered by the existence of different regional subspecies of the Oncomelania hupensis snail that serve as intermediate hosts for the disease in China. The habitats associated with these different subspecies vary considerably| with mountainous habitats in the west and floodplain habitats in the east. Despite these challenges| continuing environmental change resulting from the construction of the Three Gorges Dam and global warming that threaten to increase snail habitat| as well as limited public health resources| require the ability to accurately map and prioritize areas at risk for schistosomiasis. This paper describes a series of ongoing studies that rely on remotely sensed data to predict schistosomiasis risk in two regions of China. The first study is a classification of Landsat TM imagery to identify snail habitats in mountainous regions of Sichuan Province. The accuracy of this classification was assessed in an independent field study| which revealed that seasonal flooding may have contributed to misclassification| and that the incorporation of soil maps may greatly improve classification accuracy. A second study presents the use of Landsat TM and water level data to understand seasonal differences in Oncomelania hupensis habitat in the lower Yangtze River region. 5858,2002,3,4,The use of unsaturated fluorocarbons for dielectric etch applications,Six unsaturated fluorocarbon (UFC) gases as well as a fluorinated ether were examined for dielectric etch and global warming emissions performance and compared to three perfluorocompound (PFC) gases. All of the gases were capable of etch performance comparable to that of a typical C3F8 process| while exhibiting superior global warming emissions performance compared to the PFCs. A low-flow hexafluoro-2-butyne process was found to have a significant emissions benefit| showing a normalized emissions reduction of 88.2% compared to the C3F8 process. Two other C4F6 isomers (h)exafluoro-1|3-butadiene and hexafluorocyclobutene! also exhibited reductions greater than 80%| while hexafluoropropene and octafluorocyclopentene exhibited emissions reductions greater than 70% compared to the typical C3F8 process. For the C4F6 isomers| a large portion of the emissions were a result of CHF3 formation with photoresist as the sole source of the hydrogen. An extended 4 min etch with hexafluoro-1|3-butadiene resulted in a deep via with an aspect ratio of 5: 1| very high selectivity to photoresist| and no evidence of etch stopping. (C) 2002 The Electrochemical Society. 2943,2002,4,4,Tiger-program for thermospheric-ionospheric geospheric research - Long-term measurement of solar EUV/UV fluxes for thermospheric-ionospheric (T/I) modelling and for space weather investigations,On 18/19 June 1998 the 1st TIGER Symposium was held in Freiburg/Germany. After presentation and discussion of 28 invited and contributed talks| the symposium agreed to establish a longterm TIGER Program within the framework of the SCOSTEP International Solar Cycle Study Working Group 1| Panel 2. This decision is based on the general agreement that| for thermospheric-ionosphenic research as well as for a broad range of commercial applications in space| the improvement of existing thermosphenic-ionospheric (T/I) models is absolutely necessary to meet scientific goals. There are a number of scientific questions underlying the goal of understanding solar EUV/UV variability such as what are the primary mechanisms by which solar ultraviolet (UV)| extreme ultraviolet (EUV)| and soft X-ray (XUV) irradiance variations affect terrestrial global climate change and/or weather and what is their significance? How does solar forcing compare with that from other sources such as increasing concentrations of radiatively-active gases and atmospheric aerosols? How sensitive is the Earth's climate to changes in solar radiation? What time scales of solar variability are significant to climate? How might solar variability in these wavelengths affect global warming projections? Are there signatures of solar influences in the upper atmosphere that are distinct from anthropogenic effects? To meet these goals| coordinated work on the following topics is required and is discussed in detail below: 1. Measurement and modelling of solar EUV/UV radiation 2. Measurement and modelling of the solar wind (particles) originated energy T/I influx 3. Measurement of relevant thermospheric-ionospheric parameters 4. Modelling of the thermosphere/ionosphere 5. Fundamental physical investigations of photoenergetic atomic and molecular processes To make substantial progress in developing a complete understanding of the T/I processes| it is necessary to envisage solar cycle and longer timescales. This can be done in the global change context by making use of a broad range of worldwide existing resources with respect to manpower| experience| hardware| methods| flight opportunities| and funding resources. The TIGER Program alms to facilitate the coordination of these existing and planned activities and to help define missing links for achieving the scientific goals. (C) 2002 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5853,2002,4,3,Time preference in global warming calculations: a proposal for a unified index,Many aspects of the calculation of the impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the costs and benefits of possible response options are highly sensitive to the way in which time preference is incorporated into the computations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) used global warming potentials (GWPs) to standardize inputs of different gases with differing radiative forcings and atmospheric lifetimes; in the results emphasized by the IPCC's Second Assessment Report| a 100-year time horizon and no discounting is used| and this has been adopted by the Kyoto Protocol for use in the first commitment period (2008-2012). Here an alternative unified index is proposed that assigns explicit weights to the interests of different generations. In contrast to discounting (including the zero discount rate used by the IPCC)| the generationally weighted index forces policy makers to face the moral assumptions that underlie their choices related to global warming. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2856,2002,2,4,Time series remote sensing of landscape-vegetation interactions in the southern Great Plains,The southern Great Plains may be one of the first areas in the United States to show significant and detectable changes in vegetation cover as a result of global climate change. The objective of this project was to examine interactions between landscape environmental factors and interannual variability of land-cover types in this region| Harmonic analysis of a nine-year time series (1989-1997) of NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) biweekly composite data was used to quantify interannual changes in natural and managed| vegetation. An index of interannual landscape variability was developed based on the weighted circular variance in phase values produced by the harmonic analysis. Results indicate that landscape variability| as quantified by the weighted circular variance| is significantly different among three soil texture classes and five land-use/land-cover types. Harmonic analysis of time-series data offers considerable promise as a tool for monitoring landscape change. 2934,2002,5,4,Timing and style of Late Quaternary glaciation in the eastern Hindu Kush| Chitral| northern Pakistan: a review and revision of the glacial chronology based on new optically stimulated luminescence dating,Glacial landforms and sediments provide evidence for two Late Quaternary major glaciations in the eastern Hindu Kush. New optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating was undertaken to define the timing of these glaciations and associated sediment deposition. The Drosh Glacial| was defined by OSL dating to have occurred during marine isotopic stage-3| producing an extensive valley glaciation that extended to an altitude of greater than or equal to1300 m above sea level (asl) in the main valley| with an equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depression of similar to1200 m. The Pret Glacial produced a valley glaciation that extended to an altitude of similar to1670 m asl. in the main valley| with an ELA depression of similar to1000 m. The new OSL dating suggests that this glacial stage probably represents several glacial advances that occurred during the latter part of the Last Glacial. Moraines representing two minor glacial advances| the Shandur and Barum Glacial stages| were also recognized near the contemporary glaciers. These probably formed during the Middle/Late Holocene and Little Ice Age| respectively. This study and comparisons with adjacent regions suggest that there was limited glaciation during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Hindu Kush. Deglaciation in the mountain ranges of the Himalayas and the consequent meltwater discharge into the adjacent seas was negligible immediately after the global LGM and it was therefore of minor importance as a forcing factor for global climate change during the end of the last glacial cycle. However| our studies show that glaciation and particularly deglaciation is important in controlling the deposition of thick valley fills and the landscape evolution of the high mountain environments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 5762,2002,4,4,Total aboveground biomass in central Amazonian rainforests: a landscape-scale study,Amazonian forests play a key role in the global carbon cycle| but there is much uncertainty about the quantity and distribution of carbon stored in these forests. We quantified total aboveground dry biomass (TAGB) in undisturbed central Amazonian rainforests| based on detailed estimates of all live and dead plant material within 20 1 ha plots spanning an extensive (ca. 1000 km(2)) study area. TAGB values in our study area were very high| averaging 397.7 +/- 30.0 Mg ha(-1). The most important component of aboveground biomass was large (greater than or equal to10 cm diameter-at-breast-height (DBH)) trees| which comprised 81.9% of TAGB| followed by downed wood debris (7.0%)| small trees| saplings| and seedlings (<10 cm DBH; 5.3%)| lianas (2.1%)| litter (1.9%)| snags (1.5%)| and stemless palms (0.3%). Among large trees| aboveground biomass was greatest in intermediate-sized (20-50 cm DBH) stems (46.7% of TAGB)| with very large (greater than or equal to60 cm DBH) trees also containing substantial biomass (13.4% of TAGB). There were no significant correlations between large tree biomass and that of any other live or dead biomass component. An analysis based on the variability of our samples suggested that just 3-4 randomly positioned I ha plots would be sufficient to provide a reasonable estimate of mean TAGB in a landscape such as ours (with 95% confidence intervals being <10% of the mean). This suggests that efforts to quantify Amazon forest biomass should be extensive rather than intensive; researchers should sample many geographically separate areas with a few plots each| rather than sampling a small number of areas more intensively. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. 5881,2002,3,3,Total organic carbon losses in subsurface flow under two management practices,Greenhouse gases and global warming have become major topics. Much of the greenhouse gas discussion has dealt with carbon dioxide (CO2) and methods to sequester or store atmospheric carbon in soils and forests. The entire carbon cycle needs to be studied to better understand the overall process. The major carbon transformations are loss of CO2 to the atmosphere or the storage of carbon in sinks such as soil. Although it is a minor pathway| carbon leached through the soil and into groundwater needs to be quantified. Numerous carbon studies have been performed| but concentrations and losses of total organic carbon (TOC) moving through a soil profile have received little attention. Therefore| this study was to assess TOC levels in subsurface flow under two management practices. TOC was determined monthly in the percolate from large Soil blocks| called lysimeters| (2.4 m [8 ft] deep) with undisturbed soils under row crops. Most of the TOC concentrations in the percolate ranged from 0.5 to 6.0 mg/L with the corn/soybean-rye rotation. Developed springs in two rotational grazing systems were sampled for 10 years. TOC concentrations in the groundwater from the spring flow developments had less variability than in the lysimeter percolate. Most TOC values from these pasture systems were in a concentration range of 1 to 3 mg/L. Annual averages of TOC transport were similar for the lysimeter percolate and groundwater springs| ranging from 3.7 to 6.o kg/ha (3-3 to 5.4 lb/ac). 2924,2002,3,3,Tradeable carbon permit auctions - How and why to auction not grandfather,An auction of carbon permits is the best way to achieve domestic carbon caps designed to limit global climate change. To minimize administrative costs| permits would be required at the level of oil refineries| natural gas pipe lines| natural gas liquid sellers. and coal processing plants. To maximize liquidity in secondary markets. permits would be fully tradable and bank-able. The government would conduct quarterly auctions. A standard ascending-clock auction in which price is gradually raised until there is no excess demand would provide reliable price discovery. An auction is preferred to grandfathering (giving companies permits based on historical output or emissions)| because it allows reduced tax distortions| provides more flexibility in distribution of costs| provides greater incentives for innovation. and reduces the need for politically contentious arguments over the allocation of rents.
5722,2002,2,3,Trends and fluctuations in the dates of ice break-up of lakes and rivers in Northern Europe: the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation,The existence of an ice cover has important effects on the streamflow conditions as well as on the hear transfer between water bodies and the overlying atmosphere| This paper investigates the effects of climate variability on the termination of the ice season in the Baltic region. In particular| trends and fluctuations observed in the cryophenological records from this region are analyzed in detail| searching for possible connections with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO seems to affect mostly the late-winter temperature (January-March) with a significant impact also on the mid-spring (April-May) period| when the air temperature is strongly correlated to the ice dates. A regional analysis shows the existence in the series of winter temperature (JFM) of the same fluctuations as the winter NAO. The same components can be found in the cryophenological records and (partly) in the series of spring temperature. Nevertheless| both ice phenology and spring temperature show the existence of a very well defined trend that is not detectable in the series of winter NAO at time scales of a century or longer| This leads to the conclusion that winter NAO has still a weak| though significant| effect on the regime of spring temperature in the Baltic region and explains the most significant fluctuating components embedded in the cryophenological records. However it is argued that other climatic forcings| related to CO2-induced regional and global warming| acting at the end of the ice season| are able to induce pronounced trends in the regime of spring temperature and have an important impact on the cryosphere leading to the earlier occurrence of ice break-up observed in the last several decades. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5889,2002,2,4,Trends and temperature sensitivity of moisture conditions in the conterminous United States,Observed (1895-1999) trends in climatic moisture conditions in the conterminous United States (US) characterized by (1) annual precipitation minus annual potential evapotranspiration (PMPE)| (2) annual surplus (water that eventually becomes streamflow)| and (3) annual deficit (the amount of water that must be supplied by irrigation to grow vegetation at an optimum rate) are examined. The sensitivity of moisture conditions across the conterminous US to increases in temperature also are examined. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant trends in PMPE| annual surplus| and annual deficit for some parts of the conterminous US. Most of the significant trends in PMPE have been increasing trends primarily in the eastern US. Annual surplus also has increased over the eastern US| whereas the magnitudes of annual deficit have decreased. For the conterminous US as a whole| there has been a statistically significant increase in PMPE and annual surplus; however| there is no significant trend in annual deficit. Results also indicate that PMPE and annual deficit in the warmest regions of the conterminous US are most sensitive to increases in temperature. The high sensitivity of PMPE and annual deficit in these regions to increases in temperature is related to the relation between temperature and the saturation vapor pressure of air. The increases in potential evapotranspiration for a given change in temperature are larger for high temperatures than for low temperatures. The regions with the highest sensitivity of annual surplus to increases in temperature are the humid regions of the country. In these regions| annual surplus is large and increased potential evapotranspiration| resulting from increased temperature| has a significant effect on reducing annual surplus. In the dry regions of the country| annual surplus is so low that increases in potential evapotranspiration only result in small decreases in annual surplus. 5743,2002,4,5,Tropical Pacific decadal variability and global warming,[1] An analysis of ocean surface temperature records show that low frequency changes of tropical Pacific temperature lead global surface air temperature changes by about 4 years. Anomalies of tropical Pacific surface temperature are in turn preceded by subsurface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Pacific by approximately 7 years. The results suggest that much of the decade to decade variations in global air temperature may be attributed to tropical Pacific decadal variability. The results also suggest that subsurface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Pacific can be used as a predictor for decadal variations of global surface air temperature. Since the southern tropical Pacific temperature shows a distinct cooling over the last 8 years| the possibility exists that the warming trend in global surface air temperature observed since the late 1970's may soon weaken. 5717,2002,2,4,Twentieth-century Scots pine growth variations in the central Scandinavian Mountains related to climate change,Climate-sensitive trees are valuable for reconstructing past climates| but they also can be used to assess the impacts of environmental change| such as global warming| on forest ecosystems. Growth variability and growth responses to climate of a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) tree-ring width chronology| from the treeline in the central Scandinavian Mountains| were studied throughout the 20th century. Summer temperatures| especially in July| were the most influential climate factor for tree growth. Correlation analyses in three 30-yr periods showed that growth responses to climate varied through time| being particularly low in 1931 to 1960. Nevertheless| tree growth around 1950 was the highest for 320 yr| implying optimal growth conditions. This growth increase appears to be a response to increased summer temperatures| a lengthening of the growing season| and a temporal change in the atmospheric circulation pattern. Despite a continuation of seemingly favorable growth conditions in the latter half of the 20th century| pine growth decreased after the 1950s. It appears that high-altitude pine experienced stress that surpassed the positive effect of improved growth season climate. Since pine growth decline coincided with an unprecedented strong and positive period of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)| a measure of strength of westerly winds bringing mild and moist air masses over Scandinavia| it is proposed that milder and wetter winters caused growth stress| and hence reduced growth| in high-altitude central Sweden. 5759,2002,2,4,Unexpected results of a pilot throughfall exclusion experiment on soil emissions of CO(2)| CH(4)| N(2)O| and NO in eastern Amazonia,The eastern Amazon Basin may become drier as a result of less regional recirculation of water in a largely deforested landscape and because of increased frequency and intensity of El Nino events induced by global warming. Drier conditions may affect several plant and soil microbial processes| including soil emissions of CO(2)| CH(4)| NO| and N(2)O. We report here unanticipated results of a pilot study that was initiated to test the feasibility of a larger-scale throughfall exclusion experiment. In particular| soil drying caused a switch from net consumption of atmospheric CH(4) by soils in the control plot to net CH(4) emission from soils in the experimentally dried plot. This result is surprising because production of CH(4) requires anaerobic microsites| which are uncommon in dry soil. A plausible explanation for increased CH(4) emissions in the dried plot is that dry soil conditions favor termite activity and increased coarse root mortality provides them with a substrate. Another surprise was|that both NO and N(2)O fluxes were elevated several years after initiation of the drying experiment. Apparently| a pulse of N availability caused by experimental drying persisted for at least 3 years. As expected| CO(2) emissions were lower in the dried plots| which is consistent with lower rates of root growth observed in root in-growth cores placed in the dried plots. More work is needed to test these explanations and to confirm these phenomena| but these results demonstrate that changes in climate could have unanticipated effects on biogeochemical processes in soils that we do not adequately understand. 5719,2002,3,2,Use of Chlorella vulgaris for CO2 mitigation in a photobioreactor,Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a colorless gas that exists at a concentration of approximately 330 ppm in the atmosphere and is released in great quantities when fossil fuels are burned. The current flux of carbon out of fossil fuels is about 600 times greater than that into fossil fuels. With increased concerns about global warming and greenhouse gas emissions| there have been several approaches proposed for managing the levels Of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere. One of the most understudied methods for CO2 Mitigation is the use of biological processes in engineered systems such as photobioreactors. This research project describes the effectiveness of Chlorella vulgaris| used in a photobioreactor with a very short gas residence time| in sequestering CO2 from an elevated CO2 airstream. We evaluated a flow-through photobioreactor's operational parameters| as well as the growth characteristics of the C. vulgaris inoculum when exposed to an airstream with over 1850 ppm CO2. When using dry weight| chlorophyll| and direct microscopic measurements| it was apparent that the photobioreactor's algal inoculum responded well to the elevated CO2 levels and there was no build-up of CO2 or carbonic acid in the photobioreactor. The photobioreactor| with a gas residence time of approximately 2 s| was able to remove up to 74% of the CO2 in the airstream to ambient levels. This corresponded to a 63.9-g/m(3)/h bulk removal for the experimental photobioreactor. Consequently| this photobioreactor shows that biological processes may have some promise for treating point source emissions Of CO2 and deserve further study. 5686,2002,4,4,Water and the environment: a natural resource or a limited luxury?,The risk of contamination of drinking water supplies with microbial pathogens is minimised by modern approaches to water management| but continues to be the major public health concern. Chemical contaminants usually pose little health risk except at very high levels| but debate continues over the potential adverse health effects of low-level| chronic exposure to compounds such as disinfection byproducts. Recreational water contact can be associated with adverse health outcomes either from microbial infections or exposure to cyanobacterial toxins. Environmental issues such as increasing salinity and global warming are likely to affect the sustainability of our current drinking water supplies and increase the threat of waterborne disease outbreaks. New technologies| use of alternative water sources| such as rainwater tanks| water reuse and restrictions will undoubtedly be part of the solution to our diminishing water resources| but have the potential to introduce new health threats. 5929,2002,2,4,Weakening of climatic constraints with global warming and its consequences for evergreen broad-leaved species,Meteorological stations located in the lower areas of southern Switzerland have recorded a period with distinct milder winter conditions since 1970 as compared with the first half of the 20th century. The twofold set of climatic parameters| the absolute values and frequency of minimum temperatures as well as the length of the growing season have shifted towards warmer conditions in the last thirty years. In this paper| consequences of the lengthened growing season to 11 months are discussed. The detected climatic change supposedly favours species with evergreen broad-leaved growth form. With the analysis of 170 resurveyed releves the hypothesis of whether the group of evergreen broad-leaved species have succeeded in profiting from this weakening of climatic constraints was verified. Conspicuous changes have been observed not only in terms of the abundance and frequency of indigenous evergreen broad-leaved species| but also with a number of exotic species sharing equal characteristics and having succeeded in colonizing forest areas and establishing stands in the shrub layer. It is suggested that in areas with a minimum temperature above -10 degreesC and sufficient water supply throughout the year| evergreen broad-leaved species become increasingly competitive as soon as the growing season (days without frost) lengthens to about 300-320 days. 5954,2002,3,3,Well joined well driven - How cars will be joined in the future,Beginning with a retrospect of the most significant innovations in automobile manufacturing| this contribution provides a survey of the currently used materials and joining methods| their merits and limits. The materials covered are high-strength steels| aluminum| magnesium| and plastic materials in structural and hang-on parts. Because of rising public concern on global warming| reduced fuel consumption of cars and lightweight design become more and more important. Cost effective light weight design leads to multimaterial design concepts| where the most suitable material for the specific application is chosen. Parallel to the trend to multimaterial design the requirements for joining technologies are increasing. Within the joining technologies there is a trend to combined processes like welding and adhesive bonding| or riveting and adhesive bonding. The potential for development of existing joining techniques and the demands on future methods are shown. 2888,2002,2,4,Year-class detection reveals climatic modulation of settlement strength in the European lobster| Homarus gammarus,Understanding the nature of recruitment relationships in the European lobster| Homarus gammarus| has been an intractable problem because of difficulties associated with quantification of its scarce planktonic larvae and early benthic phase. We attempt to address this problem by analyzing the age composition of a population off the northeast coast of England. Age-dependent in situ deposits of neurolipofuscin in the eyestalk are used as an age index. An approach is presented that accounts and (or) corrects for the two most important potential sources of error in age determinations by this technique| namely environmental temperature variation and unexplained individual variation. This yields| for the first time in very long-lived clawed lobsters| reproducible catch age structures with year-class resolution. The method should be generally applicable to crustaceans. Cross-correlation analysis shows that larval settlement strength in the European lobster is associated with local sea temperatures and onshore winds in a manner similar to that reported for other lobsters. These findings have important implications for stock assessment| particularly the use of traditional models dependent on size and steady state| yield forecasting| the effects of global climate change| arguments about spawner protection or restocking| and the spawner-recruit relationship. 2899,2002,2,4,Zonation of ground beetles (Coleoptera : Carabidae) and spiders (Araneida) in salt marshes at the North and the Baltic Sea and the impact of the predicted sea level increase,The ground beetles and spiders of two salt marshes at the German North and Baltic Sea coast were investigated by pitfall traps in 1997 and 1998. While the sites at the North Sea coast are tidal salt marshes| the salt marshes at the Baltic Sea are not influenced by tides. Pitfall traps were installed in a gradient from 20 to 150 cm above MHT (mean high tide: 157 cm + NN| NN: 500 cm above 0 at Amsterdam gauge) at the North Sea coast or NN at the Baltic Sea coast at six or seven sampling elevations| each with five replicates. Conductivity| water content| organic substance| frequency or duration of floodings| sand content and pH of the soil were determined. The flooding regime is the major factor controlling the zonation of invertebrates. Two and three invertebrate assemblages at the North and Baltic Sea| respectively| were distinguished. These corresponded well with the vegetational zones. The border between the two zones was at 60-80 cm above MHT at the North Sea. The three zones at the Baltic Sea extended between 20 and 30 cm| 40 to 80 cm and 100 to 150 cm above NN. The elevation of the mean abundance of species above MHT or NN was calculated. A tide simulation experiment resulted in a shifting population and in an increasing activity under a tidal regime as predicted for the global climate change conditions in 2050. From the actual elevation of the mean abundance| the habitat size of salt marsh species was calculated for a moderate and worse scenario of global climate change. Habitat reduction becomes highest for species of the lower salt marsh zone. Under worse conditions the gradiental length of habitat will only amount to a maximum of 20 m at the slopes of the dikes. 2727,2003,5,2,110000 years of Quaternary beetle diversity change,Our first aim was to document the effects of palaeotemperatures and vegetation changes on beetle assemblages| and secondly to determine the extent to which surrogacy analysis at the family taxonomic level reveals patterns evident from lower taxa analysis. The sedimentary sequence sampled on the experimental site of 'La Grande Pile' (Vosges| France) covers the whole of the last climatic cycle. Beetle fragments were extracted from 39 coring samples and identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level. A total of 3092 beetle specimens belonging to 394 taxa were identified| more than half to species level. Carabidae| Staphylinidae and Curculionidae families together represented 40% of the overall taxa richness. Beetle taxa richness and assemblage composition varied markedly over time. Average summer temperatures clearly play a major role in diversity patterns| as temperature was positively correlated with taxon richness. Nevertheless| the warmest and the coldest periods were not the richest and the poorest| respectively| and the most humid period did not correspond to maximum beetle richness. Beetle assemblages are likely to fluctuate in response to other factors such as plant diversity and vegetation structure. Steppe-like vegetation did not reduce species richness while dense| homogenous and closed forests did. Family patterns mirrored those observed at the lower taxa level. This makes the family level a convincing alternative to lower taxonomic level analyses by representing a faithful picture of changing beetle diversity over a long period of time. Finally| evolution of beetle diversity over the Quaternary represents a convincing model for evaluating the effect of close and wide past climate changes| and for assisting in management of present-day biodiversity as part of the current anthropogenic global climate change. 6094,2003,5,4,1200 years of fire impact on biogeochemistry as inferred from high resolution diatom analysis in a kettle lake from the Picea mariana-moss domain (Quebec| Canada),The consequences of fire on water chemistry are important considering that major changes in the frequency and intensity of forest fires are anticipated as a result of global warming. Due to the important differences in succesionnal vegetative trends after fire between mixed-wood and coniferous-dominated forests in Quebec (Canada)| we undertook a long-term paleoecological study of the impact of fires on the biogeochemistry of Lac a la Pessiere| a small lake located in a conifer-dominated boreal forest ecoregion ( Picea mariana-moss domain). The paleolimnological study was carried out using diatom assemblages (class: Bacillariophyceae) to reconstruct changes in environmental variables of limnological interest [pH| total phosphorus (TP)| total nitrogen (TN)| dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and| epilimnetic carbon dioxide (CO2)] potentially associated with fire over the last 1200 calendar years. Diatom composition and related reconstructed limnological variables were compared before and after fire events. No significant changes were systematically observed in lake chemistry associated with fire events. However| diatom-inferred epilimnetic CO2 showed a clear decreasing trend over the last similar to400 cal. yrs BP. The results suggest that fire-induced changes in lake chemistry are limited in catchments dominated by black spruce ( Picea mariana). We hypothesize that this fact result of excess moisture associated to the thick humus layer| which likely limits the mobilization of nutrients and major ions even during a fire event. 2781,2003,5,4,A 180|000-year pollen record from Owens Lake| CA: terrestrial vegetation change on orbital scales,Pollen from the upper 90 m of core OL-92 from Owens Lake is a climatically sensitive record of vegetation change that indicates shifts in the plant associations representing warm and cold desertscrub| pinyon-juniper woodland| and pine-fir forest during the past 180|000 years. These changes are synchronized with glacial-interglacial cycles. During glacial and stadial climates| juniper woodland expanded downslope and replaced warm desert shrubs while upper montane and subalpine forests in the and Inyo Mountains also expanded| and those in the Sierra Nevada were displaced by the ice cap and periglacial conditions. Conversely| during interglacial and interstadial climates| warm desert plants expanded their range in the lowlands| juniper and sagebrush retreated upslope| and montane and subalpine forests expanded in the Sierra Nevada. The reconstructed vegetation history demonstrates a regional climatic response| and the congruence of the pollen sequence with marine and ice cap oxygen isotope stratigraphies suggests a link between regional vegetation and global climate change at orbital scales. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved. 5965,2003,2,4,A change in the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades,The oceans are a global reservoir and redistribution agent for several important constituents of the Earth's climate system| among them heat| fresh water and carbon dioxide. Whereas these constituents are actively exchanged with the atmosphere| salt is a component that is approximately conserved in the ocean. The distribution of salinity in the ocean is widely measured| and can therefore be used to diagnose rates of surface freshwater fluxes(1)| freshwater transport(2) and local ocean mixing(3) - important components of climate dynamics. Here we present a comparison of salinities on a long transect (50degrees S to 60degrees N) through the western basins of the Atlantic Ocean between the 1950s and the 1990s. We find systematic freshening at both poleward ends contrasted with large increases of salinity pervading the upper water column at low latitudes. Our results extend a growing body of evidence indicating that shifts in the oceanic distribution of fresh and saline waters are occurring worldwide in ways that suggest links to global warming and possible changes in the hydrologic cycle of the Earth. 6072,2003,3,3,A combined study of preparation and characterization of carbon molecular sieves (CMS) for carbon dioxide adsorption from coals of different origin,Removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as well as waste gas streams from industrial and power stations has become the present day's world-wide attraction for many reasons| the most important being the trapping of heat from the sun by CO2 and hence disruption of global warming effect. Activated carbon and CMS samples were prepared from coal samples of different origin. The effects of the various process parameters to prepare CMS from various coals were studied. Pre-oxidation of the coal| activation using CO2 and pore narrowing through coke deposition by benzene cracking were the major process parameters used to prepare the CMS in this work. The CO2 adsorption capacity of the samples was studied using gravimetric as well as volumetric methods. The adsorption capacity Of CO2 on the CMS samples prepared was found to be 1.6 mmol/g of the adsorbent with an uptake ratio at equilibrium adsorption for CO2/CH4| >> 20. The morphology of the pore structure of the samples was studied using the Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). The N-2 adsorption on the samples at liquid N-2 temperature was found to be very poor and hence surface area measurement was done using CO2 adsorption data. The BET surface area thus calculated was found to be 20% less than the DA surface area calculated. 6130,2003,2,3,A comparison of climate change simulations produced by two GFDL coupled climate models,The transient responses of two versions of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model to a climate change forcing scenario are examined. The same computer codes were used to construct the atmosphere| ocean| sea ice and land surface components of the two models| and they employ the same types of sub-grid-scale parameterization schemes. The two model versions differ primarily| but not solely| in their spatial resolution. Comparisons are made of results from six coarse-resolution R 15 climate change experiments and three medium-resolution R30 experiments in which levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sulfate aerosols are specified to change over time. The two model versions yield similar global mean surface air temperature responses until the second half of the 21st century| after which the R15 model exhibits a somewhat larger response. Polar amplification of the Northern Hemisphere's warming signal is more pronounced in the R15 model| in part due to the R15's cooler control climate| which allows for larger snow and ice albedo positive feedbacks. Both models project a substantial weakening of the North Atlantic overturning circulation and a large reduction in the volume of Arctic sea ice to occur in the 21st century. Relative to their respective control integrations| there is a greater reduction of Arctic sea ice in the R15 experiments than in the R30 simulations as the climate system warms. The globally averaged annual mean precipitation rate is simulated to increase over time| with both model versions projecting an increase of about 8% to occur by the decade of the 2080s. While the global mean precipitation response is quite similar in the two models| regional differences exist| with the R30 model displaying larger increases in equatorial regions. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6227,2003,3,4,A critical assessment of renewable energy usage in the USA,The displacement of non-renewable fossil fuels by renewable energy resources has occurred at a low rate in the USA. But a large number of drivers is expected to cause significant expansion of the US renewable energy industry in the near future. Included among the extrinsic drivers| or those that are not directly related to renewable energy resources| are reductions in natural gas and crude oil supplies and the OPEC Effect. An assessment of petroleum crude oil and natural gas consumption and reserves supports the position that supply problems and significant cost increases will start to occur in the first and second quarters of this century. Among the intrinsic drivers| or those that are directly related to renewable energy resources| are global warming and specific government incentives and mandates such as Renewable Portfolio and Fuel Standards that require the commercial use of renewable energy resources. The increasing US dependence on imported crude oil and environmental and political issues will drive the growth of the renewable energy industry and result in the gradual phase-out of what can be called the Fossil Fuel Era. By the end of this century| the dominant commercial energy mix in the USA is projected to include major contributions by renewable energy resources to help satisfy energy and fuel demands. Practical solutions to the problems of disposing of spent nuclear fuels and the development of clean coal applications will enable these energy resources to afford major contributions also. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2753,2003,4,4,A GIS-based Spatial Pattern Analysis Model for eco-region mapping and characterization,Growing concerns about global climate change| biodiversity maintenance| natural resources conservation| and long-term ecosystem sustainability have been responsible for the transformation of traditional single resource management approaches into integrated ecosystem management models. Eco-regions are large ecosystems of regional extent that contain smaller ecosystems of similar response potential and resource production capabilities. They can be used as a geographical framework for organizing and reporting resource information| setting bioecological recovery criteria| extrapolating site-level management| and monitoring global change. The objective of this research is to develop a quantitative| multivariate regionalization model that is capable of delineating eco-regions at multiple levels from remotely sensed information and other environmental and natural resources spatial data. The Spatial Pattern Analysis Model developed in this study uses a region-growing algorithm to generate spatially contiguous regions from primitive polygonal land units. The algorithm merges the most similar pair of neighbouring units at each iteration| based on satisfying certain similarity criteria until all units are grouped into one. This model was utilized to develop an eco-region map of Nebraska with three hierarchical levels. In the mapping process| the STATSGO data set was used to build the primitive map units. Environmental parameters included in the model were multi-temporal AVHRR data| soil rooting depth| organic matter content| available water capacity| and long-term annual averages of water balance and growing degree day totals. Development of the model provides a new and useful approach to eco-region mapping for resource managers and researchers. The method is automated and efficient| reduces the judgement biases and uncertainty of manual analyses| and can be replicated for other regions or for the regionalization of other themes. 6198,2003,3,4,A life-cycle comparison of several auxiliary blowing agents used for the manufacture of rigid polyurethane foam,In a commitment to zero ozone depletion| the United Nations and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have called for the phase-out of the manufacture and import of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)| used as auxiliary blowing agents (ABAs) in the manufacture of polyurethane foams. As a result| more environmentally benign alternative ABAs are being sought by the foam-blowing industry. This study examined the life cycle of HCFC-22| hydrofluorocarbon-134a (HFC-134a)| and cyclopentane| which are currently used or considered as potential alternative ABAs in the manufacture of rigid polyurethane foams that serve as insulation in a model North American refrigerator. The raw material extraction/refining| manufacturing| use| and disposal stages of the life cycle of each ABA were considered| and their resulting relative impacts on ozone depletion and global warming were compared. The manufacturing| use| and disposal stages were determined to affect ozone depletion and global warming to the largest extent| emphasizing the need for a greater focus on pollution prevention opportunities in these stages. The HFC-134a life cycle yields no impact on ozone depletion and a significantly decreased global warming impact compared with its predecessor| HCFC-22| and a tradeoff of slightly higher global warming impact and fewer added safety concerns compared with its more flammable counterpart| cyclopentane. 2735,2003,3,4,A MERGE model with endogenous technological progress,We have developed a new version of the MERGE model| called MERGE-ETL| to analyse the dynamics of endogenous technological learning (ETL) in the energy system. This paper describes the basic formulation of MERGE-ETL| the solving techniques used for this model and some first numerical results in the context of policies designed to mitigate global climate changes. 6205,2003,2,4,A model for regional-scale estimation of temporal and spatial variability of active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperatures,High-latitude ecosystems where the mean annual ground surface temperature is around or below 0 degreesC are highly sensitive to global warming. This is largely because these regions contain vast areas of permafrost| which begins to thaw when the mean annual temperature rises above freezing. The Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab has developed a new interactive geographical information systems (GIS) model to estimate the long-term response of permafrost to changes in climate. An analytical approach is used for calculating both active layer thickness (ALT) and mean annual ground temperatures (MAGTs). When applied to long-term (decadal or longer time scale) averages| this approach shows an accuracy of +/-0.2-0.4degreesC for MAGTs and +/-0.1-0.3 in for ALT calculations. The relative errors do not exceed 32% for ALT calculations| but typically they are between 10 and 25%. A spatial statistical analysis of the data from 32 sites in Siberia indicated a confidence level of 75% to have a deviation between measured and calculated MAGTs of 0.2-0.4degreesC. A detailed analysis has been performed for two regional transects in Alaska and eastern Siberia that has validated the use of the model. The results obtained from this analysis show that a more economical (in terms of computational time) analytical approach could be successfully used instead of a full-scale numerical model in the regional and global scale analysis of permafrost spatial and temporal dynamics. This project has been a successful contribution to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment project. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons| Ltd. 6040,2003,3,3,A new generalized carbon exergy tax: An effective rule to control global warming,An instrument for promoting CO(2) emission reductions| taking the Kyoto Protocol goal into account| could be the assignment to energy conversion plants of a monetary charge linked to their specific emission intensity| usually called carbon tax. There are two main problems closely connected with this approach: the estimation of the charge (that must be related to the "external" cost associated with CO(2) emission) and the choice of the strategy to determine the amount of the imposed charge. In this paper an analytical procedure proposed by the authors and called carbon exergy tax (CET) for the evaluation Of CO(2) emission externalities is presented. It is based on the thermoeconomic analysis of energy systems| which allows second law losses to be quantified in monetary terms: the resulting cost represents the taxation that is to be applied to the energy system under examination| calculated without any arbitrary assumption. Since the complete procedure of the CET evaluation is too complex to become a feasible instrument of energy policy| hereby| after applying the procedure to some conventional and advanced power plants| gas| oil| and coal-fueled| a new generalized approach| based on the results of the complete CET procedure| is proposed. The generalized CET evaluation requires much less information about the energy system and thus a simple and effective energy policy rule to manage global warming is obtained and available. 6305,2003,5,4,A new scenario for the Domerian - Toarcian transition,In contrast to the majority of recently published hypotheses| we believe that the main trigger for early Toarcian anoxia is neither increased primary productivity during the Tenuicostatum and Falciferum Zones nor sudden methane hydrate degassing close to the transition between these two zones. In our opinion| this peculiar pateoceanographic episode is linked to a major| though short-lived| regression at the end of Upper Domerian. Sea-level fall resulted from sudden cooling due to increased volcanic activity. This generated global thermal insulation and subsequent glaciation. The regression is responsible for a major hiatus over NW-European epicontinental seas and is later followed by the well-known Lower Toarcian transgression. The interval corresponding to this hiatus allowed vegetation to colonise vast newly emerged surfaces. The leaching and drowning of the accumulated organo-humic matter then triggered the anoxic cycle at the transgressive maximum| concomitant with a global warming. 6295,2003,4,4,A reassessment of carbon content in wood: variation within and between 41 North American species,At present| 50% (w/w) carbon is widely promulgated as a generic value for wood; however| the literature yields few data and indicates that very little research has actually been done. C contents in heartwood of forty-one softwood and hardwood species were determined. C in kiln-dried hardwood species ranged from 46.27% to 49.97% (w/w)| in conifers from 47.21% to 55.2%. The higher C in conifers agrees with their higher lignin content (similar to 30%| versus similar to 20% for hardwoods). Wood-meal samples drilled from discrete early wood and late wood zones of seven of the forty-one species were also investigated. C contents of early woods were invariably higher than those in corresponding late woods| again in agreement with early wood having higher lignin content. Further investigation was made into freshly harvested wood of some species to determine how much volatile C is present| comparing oven-dried wood meal with wood meal dried at ambient temperature over a desiccant. C contents of oven-dried woods were significantly lower| indicating that all past data on C content in oven- or kiln-dried woods may be inaccurate in relation to the true C content of forests. We conclude that C content varies substantially among species as well as within individual trees. Clearly| a 50% generic value is an oversimplification of limited application in relation to global warming and the concept of "carbon credits". (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6121,2003,2,4,A review of the possible impacts of long-term oceanic and climate changes and fishing mortality on recruitment of anguillid eels of the Northern Hemisphere,Possible causes of declines in recruitment of European| American and Japanese eels to continental waters are reviewed. Negative correlations between the Den Oever glass eel recruitment index (DOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index since 1938 are discussed| together with older anecdotal evidence. Correlations are established between the DOI and sea surface temperature anomalies at 100-250 in between 1952 and 1995 in the Sargasso Sea/Sub-Tropical Gyre (STG) spawning area. It is hypothesised that| associated with global warming trends| STG warming inhibits spring thermocline mixing and nutrient circulation| with negative impacts on productivity and hence food for leptocephalus larvae. Concurrent gyre spin-up also affects major currents and slowing of oceanic migration has probably enhanced starvation and predation losses. Local factors| such as unfavourable wind-driven currents| can also affect recruitment of glass eels on continental shelves. In contrast| evidence is discussed that indicates fishing mortality and continental climate change appear to have had lesser impacts. Similar starvation-advection explanations for declines in Japanese eel recruitment are proposed. Predictions for the future are made and multidisciplinary and integrated monitoring and research are recommended for managing eel stocks and fisheries. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6211,2003,2,4,A review of the risks of sudden global cooling and its effects on agriculture,Global warming has received much attention| but evidence from the past shows that sudden global cooling has occurred with severe failures of agriculture. Extrapolating from dendrochronological evidence| one can predict the following: Approximately once per century there will be a drop of about 0.5-1 degreesC in mean temperature worldwide. In some of these cases| perhaps once every 200 or 300 years this might endanger agricultural production globally. About once per millenium there will be periods of 5-20 years where the temperature is seriously below normal. The last major one year temperature drop was 1816| the year without a summer| probably caused by the cooling effect of the eruption of the volcano Tambora| Indonesia. The last decade-long cooling event was A.D. 536-545 where dust veil| cold| famine| and plague was recorded in Byzantium and China. Very large volcanic eruptions or a comet/asteroid impact have been suggested as cause. Nuclear winter after large-scale nuclear war is a well-known scenario| but climate instabilities may also be caused by changes in the sun| Milankovitch cycles| changes in ocean currents| volcanoes| asteroid impacts| dusting from comets passing close| methane released from its hydrate| and pollution| The risks associated with sudden global cooling are rather smaller than the risks of global warming| but they are real. A dangerous sudden cooling event will happen sooner or later. Ability to change to cold-resistant crops rapidly in large parts of the world may be necessary to avoid major famines. With some important exceptions| fundamental research in abrupt climate change is in place| but agricultural or economic research on volcanic/comet-dusting/nuclear winters and their mitigation is lacking. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6194,2003,4,4,A seasonal model to simulate influenza oscillation in Tokyo,The purpose of our study was to establish a seasonal model to simulate the oscillation of the number of influenza cases with weather conditions and calendar months in Tokyo| Japan| during the winter season. Surveillance data for influenza in Tokyo was retrieved from the Infectious Agents Surveillance Report| published by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Japan. We obtained data for 86 parameters of weather conditions from the Meteorological Agency. The best-fit model was built by multiple regression with stepwise analysis. The reported number of patients with influenza per week was significantly increased with fewer days of maximum temperature greater than or equal to10 degreesC per week (T10) and more days of relative humidity <60% per week (S60)| adjusted by calendar month| average temperature| and vapor pressure. Annual oscillation of the number of reported influenza cases at the start| peak| and end weeks almost exactly matched the model| although peak levels for each oscillation did not always match. However| this model showed that 81% of the variation among the observed number of influenza cases was explained by a linear relationship with the seasonal parameters utilized. The validity of this model applied to data from 1999 to 2002| showing a 75% correlation. Using this model| if the number of days with both T10 and S60 increased by one per week| the number of influenza cases was simulated to decrease by approximately half. These results suggest that most of the oscillation in the number of influenza cases may be explained using a seasonal model that can simulate the impact of global warming. 6196,2003,2,3,A simple global carbon and energy coupled cycle model for global warming simulation: sensitivity to the light saturation effect,A simple Earth system model| the Four-Spheres Cycle of Energy and Mass (4-SCEM) model| has been developed to simulate global warming due to anthropogenic CO2 emission. The model consists of the Atmosphere-Earth Heat Cycle (AEHC) model| the Four Spheres Carbon Cycle (4-SCC) model| and their feedback processes. The AEHC model is a one-dimensional radiative convective model| which includes the greenhouse effect of CO2 and H2O| and one cloud layer. The 4-SCC model is a box-type carbon cycle model| which includes biospheric CO2 fertilization| vegetation area variation| the vegetation light saturation effect and the HILDA oceanic carbon cycle model. The feedback processes between carbon cycle and climate considered in the model are temperature dependencies of water vapor content| soil decomposition and ocean surface chemistry. The future status of the global carbon cycle and climate was simulated up to the year 2100 based on the "business as usual" (IS92a) emission scenario| followed by a linear decline in emissions to zero in the year 2200. The atmospheric CO2 concentration reaches 645 ppmv in 2100 and a peak of 760 ppmv approximately in the year 2170| and becomes a steady state with 600 ppmv. The projected CO2 concentration was lower than those of the past carbon cycle studies| because we included the light saturation effect of vegetation. The sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties derived from the light saturation effect of vegetation and land use CO2 emissions were the primary cause of uncertainties in projecting future CO2 concentrations. The climate feedback effects showed rather small sensitivities compared with the impacts of those two effects. Satellite-based net primary production trends analyses can somewhat decrease the uncertainty in quantifying CO2 emissions due to land use changes. On the other hand| as the estimated parameter in vegetation light saturation was poorly constrained| we have to quantify and constrain the effect more accurately. 6051,2003,2,4,A stochastic sediment delivery model for a steep Mediterranean landscape,[1] It is a truism in geomorphology that climatic events operate on a landscape to drive sediment transport processes| yet few investigations have formally linked climate and terrain characteristics with geomorphological processes. In this study| we incorporate sediment transport equations derived from fieldwork into a computer model that predicts the delivery of sediment from hillslopes in a steep Mediterranean landscape near Santa Barbara| California. The sediment transport equations are driven by rainstorms and fires that are stochastically generated from probability distributions. The model is used to compare the rates and processes of sediment delivery under two vegetation types: coastal sage scrub and grasslands. Conversion of vegetation from sage to exotic grasses is a common land management strategy in the region and may also be engendered by regional climate change due to global warming. Results from the model suggest that (1) approximately 40% more sediment is delivered from grasslands (98 t km(-2) yr(-1)) than the sage scrub (71 t km(-2) yr(-1)) and (2) chronic soil creep processes dominate under grasslands whereas catastrophic processes dominate under coastal sage scrub. Results from the model also suggest that changes in the spatial distribution of vegetation arising from climate change will have a greater effect on sediment delivery than changes in the magnitude and frequency of meteorological events. 6052,2003,2,4,A super-large landslide in Tibet in 2000: background| occurrence| disaster| and origin,On April 9| 2000| a super-large landslide (3 x 10(8) m(3)) occurred along Zhamu Creek| southeast Tibet. As a result| a landslide dam formed and the Yigong River was blocked. A channelized diversion was constructed for prevention of overtopping. Two months later on June 10| a catastrophic flood resulting from the failure of the landslide dam caused a serious loss of property. This is the second of landslide occasion dam formation and flooding occurrence at the same site since 1900. In this paper we introduce the background and occurrence of the landslide| report the dam failure and overflow process| and finally discuss the origin of the landslide and of the flood in comparison with statistical characteristics of previous case histories worldwide. Many large and small landslides will continue to occur because of the distinctive physiographic| geological and climatic conditions in this region. What we can do is perhaps only to predict and avoid them. With predicted global warming| water availability has become more and more important for landslide occurrence. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2768,2003,2,4,A temperate| tidal lake-wetland complex - 1. Water balance and ecological implications,A water-balance model was developed for a tidal lake-wetland complex to: (1) determine the relative contribution of hydrological flows through the lake-wetland complex; (2) determine the tidal and non-tidal hydraulic residence times of two lakes in the lake-wetland complex; and (3) estimate the potential importance of groundwater inputs to the lake-wetland complex. All surface hydrological inputs to the system were either measured or estimated over 1 year. Daily evaporation from the water bodies was also estimated. Discharge at the outflow of the lake-wetland complex was monitored to calculate the net daily outflow. A correction procedure was used to remove the error resulting from aliasing of the daily calculation period and the tidal period. The difference between the measured net outflow and that calculated by the water-balance model indicated that a large amount of net discharge from the lake-wetland complex may have been a result of previously unrecognised groundwater inputs to the system. The non-tidal hydraulic residence times of the two lakes differed markedly as did the relative importance of tidal inflows. The influence of variation in tidal and non-tidal hydraulic residence time on limnological processes is discussed| particularly with respect to impacts of global climate change on tidal lake ecosystems. 2764,2003,2,4,A temperate| tidal lake-wetland complex - 2. Water quality and implications for zooplankton community structure,Lakes Waihola and Waipori are shallow| coastal| tidal lakes that experience wind-induced sediment resuspension| saline intrusions| and high inputs of nutrients. To determine the influence of externally-driven| physical factors on spatial and temporal patterns of water quality in the two lakes| meteorological| hydrological| and water quality data were collected over 1 year. Multivariate analyses indicated that wind energy was driving the main water quality gradient in the lakes| which was primarily related to wind-induced resuspension of lake sediments. The major| seasonally regulated| nontidal freshwater inflow was important in determining nutrient and salinity gradients in the lakes. The main nutrient inputs to the system were identified as the regulated| non-tidal inflow (the upper Waipori River) and the tidal inflow (lower Waipori River). The impact of water quality gradients on zooplankton community structure in the lakes was assessed by canonical multivariate methods. Salinity gradients| caused by seasonal saltwater intrusions| were strongly related to zooplankton community structure in the lakes. Nutrient gradients (indicative of trophic state) were also related to zooplankton community structure. Although wind-induced sediment resuspension had the largest impact on water quality in the lakes| it had little impact on the zooplankton community structure in either lake. The relationships between water quality and zooplankton community structure were confounded in Lake Waipori because of its very short hydraulic residence time (annual mean = 1.9 days). Zooplankton community structure was resilient to short-term changes in suspended particulate matter concentrations but not to seasonal changes in salinity. The results of this study support others which have shown impacts of even relatively small variations in salinity on the structure of zooplankton communities. This highlights the vulnerability of zooplankton communities in coastal lakes and wetlands to increasing salinity resulting from sea level rise and global climate change. 6056,2003,4,4,Absolute photo-absorption cross sections and electronic state spectroscopy of selected fluorinated hydrocarbons relevant to the plasma processing industry,Photo-absorption cross sections have been measured for methyl iodide| CF(3)I (310 nm > lambda > 110 nm) and dichlorodifluoromethane| CCl(2)F(2) (225 nm > lambda > 110 nm) using synchrotron radiation. Electron energy loss spectroscopy was also used to probe the electronic and vibronic excitation of CF(3)I. Electronic states have been assigned to each of the observed absorption bands incorporating both valence and Rydberg transitions. The measured VUV cross sections are used to derive the photolysis rates in the terrestrial atmosphere and hence determine the potential importance of each gas in global warming and ozone depletion. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6086,2003,2,4,Acidic deposition| nutrient leaching and forest growth,Studies in Germany and confirmed in North America established that the forest decline that developed in the late 1970' s and 80' s resulted from a deficiency in one or more of the nutrient cations: Ca2+| Mg2+| and K+. These nutrients are essential to the structure of the foliage| to photosynthesis and to the growth of the trees. The reactions and mechanisms involved in the entry of nutrients to the soil| their storage| and rate of transfer to the soil solution| and through it| to the. ne roots and to the leaves at the top of the tree are reviewed. The continuing material balance studies carried out on a watershed at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire allow a unique analysis of the changes caused in these nutrient transfers by acid rain. The nutrient cations are stored in the soil by adsorption on negatively charged clay| and the presence of an acid is required for their release to the soil solution. In pre-industrial times this acid was H2CO3| which was subsequently displaced from the soil solution by H2SO4 and HNO3| as a result of acid deposition. The effect of the increased concentration of the negatively charged SO42- and NO3- anions seeping through the soil| compared with that of the HCO3- that had been previously present| resulted in a substantially increased rate of transfer of an equivalent of Ca2+ and other positively charged nutrient cations from the soil to the soil solution. The increased concentration of Ca2+ in the soil solution resulted in both an initial increase in the rate of biomass growth and in a simultaneous increase in the rate of Ca2+ loss in the effluent soil solution from the watershed. It was found that this increased rate of removal of Ca2+ from the watershed soil had become greater than its rate of input to the soil from weathering and from dust and rain. As a result| the large Ca2+ inventory that had built up in the soil as a result of the reduced leaching in the years prior to the entry of acid rain| that started in about the 1880's| was eventually depleted in the hardwood forest at Hubbard Brook in the 1980's| about 100 years later. With insufficient Ca2+ available for its continuing transfer| net biomass growth on the watershed stopped. This resulted from the rate of tree mortality becoming equal to that of the small incremental growth of a few trees on the watershed. The future growth of forests is at risk from the long-term effects of acid deposition. The fundamental nature of the reactions involved indicates that similar growth anomalies are occurring in other forests impacted by acid rain. These changes from normal biomass growth can affect the amount of CO2 stored in the biomass| of importance to our understanding of Global Warming. 6178,2003,2,4,Adaptation measures for climate change and the urban heat island in Japan's built environment,Climate change scenarios are discussed for Japan with clear implications drawn for the built environment in terms of increased temperatures of 4-5degreesC| rising sea levels and subterranean water tables. Research on the impacts and adaptation measures for global warming in Japan is reviewed. One of the most significant impacts of climate change in Japan will exacerbate the existing heat island phenomenon in cities by absorbing increased solar radiation. This will lead to further increases in temperatures in an urban microclimate with negative implications for energy and water consumption| human health and discomfort| and local ecosystems. The current urban heat island phenomenon and its impacts are described. The relationships between climate change and urban heat island impacts are discussed. Potential adaptation measures to those impacts are also discussed and proposed. 6269,2003,2,4,Aerial photographic interpretation of vegetation changes on the Bogong High Plains| Victoria| between 1936 and 1980,The vegetation of two areas on the Bogong High Plains in 1936 was compared with that in 1980 by using a point sampling technique on aerial photographs. Between 1936 and 1980| the cover of closed heathland| wetland and trees (Eucalyptus pauciflora) increased but the cover of grassland decreased. No change was detected overall in the cover of open heathland. The increase in closed heathland was not due to direct conversion of grassland areas. Most change was from grassland to open heathland and from open heathland to closed heathland vegetation. The increase in wetland vegetation may have been a response to the reduction in grazing pressure since the 1930s. The greater cover of trees in 1980 was due to expansion of existing patches rather than the establishment of new patches. This may have been attributable in part to regeneration following bushfires in 1926 and 1939. The possible role of higher mean temperatures associated with global warming in the increased tree and shrub cover is worthy of further investigation. 2731,2003,5,4,Age interpretation of the Wonderkrater spring sediments and vegetation change in the Savanna Biome| Limpopo province| South Africa,Spring accumulations are valuable and rare sources for Quaternary pollen analysis and palaeoenvironmental research in South Africa. It is important to optimize their dating| which is sometimes complicated by root contamination. Thirteen new radiocarbon dates are presented from one of the most significant spring pollen sequences on which South African vegetation history is based| namely| from Wonderkrater in the Savanna Biome. Some anomalous measurements were recorded but a new chronology is proposed by excluding samples that were possibly contaminated by younger or older materials. The dating places the pollen-based vegetation history more firmly in a framework of regional and global climate change during the Late Quaternary| thereby making the information more suitable for comparison with other sequences and as vegetation data in global-change modelling. 6090,2003,3,3,Allocating the responsibility of CO2 over-emissions from the perspectives of benefit principle and ecological deficit,Responsible emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) are currently estimated according to the principle of territorial responsibility; that is| individual countries are only responsible for the anthropogenic CO2 emissions within their own political boundaries. In the context of globalization of world economies| such an accounting principle would easily result in carbon leakage| thus undermining the effects of global warming combat. From the perspectives of benefit principle and ecological deficit| this paper develops a framework to estimate the amount of responsible anthropogenic CO2 over-emissions| which serves as a basis for calculating the amount of anthropogenic CO2 reduction that a defined country is responsible for. The benefit principle assigns the responsibility of pollutant emissions to the driving forces behind the activities that emit pollutants rather than to direct emitters. The perspective of ecological deficit proposes that a country should take the responsibility for reducing pollutant emissions when it runs the deficits of assimilation| that is| its responsible emissions exceeding its capacity of assimilation. The proposed framework is demonstrated using the data of Taiwan in 1996| and discussions on improving and extending the framework in future research are provided. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6219,2003,2,4,Altitudinal treelines of the southern Andes near 40 degrees S-1,In the southern Andes near 40degreesS| altitudinal treelines are dominated by Nothofagus pumilio| a broadleaf deciduous angiosperm in the beech family (Fagaceae). Treeline elevations| ranging from 1100 to 1500 in a.s.l.| are influenced by regional climate and volcanism. At the local scale| disturbance influences treeline elevation| ecotone length| and vegetation productivity. Decadal and interannual variation in climate related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly affected radial growth of krummholz trees and seedling demography: however| climate-treeline relations were complex. Radial growth of krummholz trees and seedling demography responded differently to climate variation. These relations differed between climate regions and were unstable through time. We conclude that inter-annual variations in climate| such as those associated with ENSO| will be critical for successful reproduction and growth of Nothofagus pumilio at treeline in the Andes under the influence of global warming. 2772,2003,2,4,An accumulation map for the Greenland dry-snow facies derived from spaceborne radar,[1] An important component of ice sheet mass balance calculations is the snow accumulation rate| traditionally determined across the ice sheet from interpolated ice core data. We derive an accumulation rate map within the Greenland dry-snow facies| using C-band radar backscatter and the mean annual temperature. Values for the backscatter were obtained from the ERS-1 synthetic aperture radar mosaic acquired during September November 1992. An empirical equation| based on elevation and latitude| is used to determine the mean annual temperature. We examine the influence of accumulation rate| and mean annual temperature on C-band (5.3 GHz) radar backscatter| using a forward model| which incorporates snow metamorphosis and radar backscatter components. Our model is run over a range of accumulation and temperature conditions| consistent with the Greenland dry-snow facies. On the basis of our modeled results| a look-up table is generated| which uniquely maps the measured radar backscatter and mean annual temperature to accumulation rate. Our results compare favorably (15.4% average difference) with 124 in situ accumulation rate measurements falling within our study area. We attribute some of the differences to ( 1) unreliable in situ data points| which were based on a single year's accumulation and ( 2) a systematic underestimate of accumulation rate by our forward model in the low-accumulation regions associated with the northern portion of our map. With questionable data points and those above 77 degreesN removed| the average differences were less than 10.3%| as determined from 73 ice cores. 6210,2003,5,4,An alternative age model for the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum using extraterrestrial He-3,A continuous age model for the brief climate excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary has been constructed by assuming a constant flux of extraterrestrial He-3 (He-3(ET)) to the seafloor. (HeET)-He-3 measurements from ODP Site 690 provide quantitative evidence for the rapid onset ( < few kyr) and short duration ( < 120 kyr) of global warming and of the associated disturbance to the Earth's surficial carbon budget at this time. These observations support astronomically calibrated age models indicating extremely rapid release of isotopically light carbon| possibly from seafloor methane hydrate| as' the proximal cause of the event. However| the He-3(ET) technique indicates a previously unrecognized and extreme increase in sedimentation rate coincident with the return of climate proxies to pre-event values. The He-3(ET)-based age model thus suggests a far more rapid recovery from the climatic perturbation than previously proposed or predicted on the basis of the modern carbon cycle| and so may indicate additional or accelerated mechanisms of carbon removal from the ocean-atmosphere system during this period. He-3(ET) was also measured at ODP Site 1051 to test the validity of the Site 690 chronology. Comparison of these data sets seems to require removal of several tens of kyr of sediment within the climatic excursion at Site 1051| an observation consistent with sediment structures and previous age modeling efforts. The Site 1051 age model shows a similar to30 kyr period in which climate proxies return toward pre-event values| after which they remain invariant for similar to80 kyr. If this rise represents the recovery interval identified at Site 690| then the 3 HeET-based age models of the two sites are in good agreement. However| alternative interpretations are possible| and work on less disrupted sites is required to evaluate the reliability of the proposed new chronology of the climate excursion. Regardless of these details| this work shows that the 3HeET technique can provide useful independent evidence for the development and testing of astronomically calibrated age models. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2713,2003,3,3,An equity first| risk-based framework for managing global climate change,This paper presents an alternative framework to the approach currently embodied in the Kyoto Protocol for managing global climate change post-2012. The framework has two key provisions. The first is that each person in the world would be 'allowed' an equal amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is labeled the equity-first provision. The second provision focuses on incorporating risk concepts into the setting of GHG emission reductions. It is proposed that the global climate be managed as to avoid three categories of risks: (I) Substantial regional economic| political| and/or biological impacts; (II) Severe global economic| political| and/or biological impacts; and (III) Extinction of humans. Acceptable risk thresholds are suggested to be one-in-a-million| one-in-one-hundred-million| and one-in-ten-billion| respectively. This equity-first| risk-based framework overcomes many criticisms of the current Kyoto Protocol: it explicitly involves all countries on earth; it avoids several administrative issues that are anticipated to plague a global carbon emissions trading market; and it avoids several contentious issues associated with pegging carbon emission reductions to 1990 levels. Because the framework is risk-based and emissions are tied to population and not historic emission levels| the basic framework would not have to be frequently renegotiated| as will be needed for the Kyoto-style approach to take the world past that agreement's 2012 endpoint. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2704,2003,2,4,Analysis of the duration| seasonal timing| and location of North Atlantic tropical cyclones: 1950-2002,Many scientists have suggested that a warmer world with elevated atmospheric moisture levels could increase the frequency| intensity| or duration of future tropical cyclones or alter their mean locations. While others have examined historical patterns in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity| and generally found no trends in recent decades| we analyzed tropical cyclone records from the Caribbean| Gulf of Mexico| and tropical sector of the western North Atlantic over the period 1950-2002 with a focus on the duration| seasonal timing| and geographic position of the events. We found no significant trends in the start date| ending date| or duration of the storm season (defined in various ways) and no trends in the average geographic position of the storms. Furthermore| these measures of hurricane season timing and storm locations were not related to regional sea surface temperature or the northern hemispheric or global temperatures. 6237,2003,2,4,Annual precipitation fields secular variation over global land areas for 1948-2000,The secular variation over the global land annual precipitation (GLAP) fields for 1948-2000 is investigated. Evidence suggests that the GLAP abruptly reduced around 1978 and experienced a decrease of 0.54 mm/a| on average. Fuzzy clustering is used to group the annual precipitation over commonly-used 36 latitudes belts into six belts for examining its secular variation. The results show that| except northern high-latitudes (60degrees-90degrees N) where it is slightly increased| the precipitation is decreased| especially in 35degrees N-35degrees S| and the diminution is the maximum of 0.98 mm/a at tropics. Moreover| identification of 1948-2000 flood/drought years on a global basis is made| showing noticeable interdecadal variations. During the years of warm (cold) events the precipitation decreases (increases) by 15.4 min (14.4 mm) per year| on average. It can be assumed that global warming and frequent ENSO occurrences from the end of the 1970s maybe serve as the root cause of the diminution. 2763,2003,4,4,Antarctic cloud radiative forcing at the surface estimated from the AVHRR Polar Pathfinder and ISCCP D1 datasets| 1985-93,Surface cloud radiative forcing from the newly extended Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Polar Pathfinder (APP-x) dataset and surface cloud radiative forcing calculated using cloud and surface properties from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D-series product were used in this 9-yr (1985-93) study. On the monthly timescale| clouds were found to have a warming effect on the surface of the Antarctic continent every month of the year in both datasets. Over the ocean poleward of 58.75degreesS| clouds were found to have a warming effect on the surface from March through October in the ISCCP-derived dataset and from April through September in the APP-x dataset. Net surface fluxes from both datasets were validated against net surface fluxes calculated from measurements of upwelling and downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation at the Neumayer and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Stations in the Antarctic. The net all-wave surface flux from the ISCCP-derived dataset was found to be within 0.4-50 W m(-2) of the net all-wave flux at the two stations on the monthly timescale. The APP-x net all-wave surface flux was found to be within 0.9-24 W m(-2). Model sensitivity studies were conducted to gain insight into how the surface radiation budget in a cloudy atmosphere will change if certain cloud and surface properties were to change in association with regional and/or global climate change. The results indicate that the net cloud forcing will be most sensitive to changes in cloud amount| surface reflectance| cloud optical depth| and cloud-top pressure. 6317,2003,3,3,Application of environmental impact assessments to tribo-components - (Part 2) - Effects of oil additives on environmental impact,Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is conducted for two types of aluminum alloy bush bearings used for automotive transmissions. Equivalent CO2 emission (ECE) is used as the index of the environmental impact for global warming| and is compared through their manufacturing processes. Two types of bush bearings| which are in the market| show little difference in ECE| irrespective of different lining structure if comparison is made by taking a single piece of bearing as the functional unit. However| when the functional unit is defined so that relative life of the bearings based on their anti-wear potential is taken into account| reduction of environmental impact by higher wear resistance of the bearing material and by improved formation of lubricating oil can be estimated quantitatively. This LCA procedure is expected to be a useful tool for an environmentally friendly design of tribo-components.
6261,2003,3,3,Application of life cycle assessment to the LCA case studies single superphosphate production,Goal| Scope and Background. There is a competition between wet and thermal routes for phosphate fertilizers manufacture. In the Brazilian case| the thermal route is represented by thermophosphate. This fertilizer is considered the most adequate one for Brazilian agricultural conditions; its main restriction is the intensive consumption of energy necessary for its production. The wet route uses sulfuric acid to directly produce the single superphosphate (SSP) or the intermediate phosphoric acid| which will be used to result in triple superphosphate (TSP) and ammonium phosphate production. The main restriction of the wet route is the large amount of phosphogypsum generated in phosphoric acid production. Envisaged is an environmental comparison of both routes using LCA methodology. This paper presents the LCA for SSP production. The goal of the study is to establish the Environmental Profile of this fertilizer. Eight impact categories were selected for the study. The system boundaries was defined for a 'cradle to gate' approach| including extraction of natural resources| intermediate products| and production. The SSP System. The SSP system (single superphosphate) comprises the stages of mining and concentration of the phosphate rock| elemental sulfur extraction| production of sulfuric acid| and manufacture of single superphosphate. SSP LCI. The LCI was performed considering the production of 1.0 ton of SSP (single superphosphate) as a Functional Unit. The data collected were developed for different producing companies| all of them located in the same regional area. Allocation criteria of energy and mass were applied to the production of sulfuric acid and manufacture of single superphosphate. The transportation step included either the transport of the mined phosphated rock to the concentration plant or the transport of the phosphate concentrate to the SSP unit. Conclusion| Recommendation and Perspective. The accomplishment of an LCA to SSP production identified the GWP and EP as its meaningful environmental impacts. In reference to global warming| the transportation step was the greatest contributor agent| while the losses of PO4- from the SSP manufacturing were the main cause of ER The most important contribution in terms of water consumption was observed in the concentration step. Finally| the self sufficiency of the sulfuric acid production in energetic terms must be highlighted. The knowledge of the environmental profile of fertilizers is necessary to support LCA studies of agricultural products| a relevant raw material source for many industrial sectors. The method used here may be important for modelling other LCA fertilizer studies. As most of the agricultural raw materials are transferred among different countries| comparisons of the environmental profiles of fertilizers in developed and developing countries are needed. 6137,2003,3,3,Applications of life cycle assessment to NatureWorks (TM) polylactide (PLA) production,NatureWorks(TM) polylactide (PLA)(1) is a versatile polymer produced by Cargill Dow LLC. Cargill Dow is building a global platform of sustainable polymers and chemicals entirely made from renewable resources. Cargill Dow's business philosophy is explained including the role of life cycle assessment (LCA)| a tool used for measuring environmental sustainability and identifying environmental performance-improvement objectives. The paper gives an overview of applications of LCA to PLA production and provides insight into how they are utilized. The first application reviews the contributions to the gross. fossil energy requirement for PLA (54 MJ/kg). In the second one PLA is compared with petrochemical-based polymers using fossil energy use| global warming and water use as the three impact indicators. The last application gives more details about the potential reductions in energy use and greenhouse gasses. Cargill Dow's 5-8 year objective is to decrease the fossil energy use from 54 MJ/kg PLA down to about 7 MJ/kg PLA. The objective for greenhouse gasses is a reduction from +1.8 down to -1.7 kg CO2 equivalents/kg PLA. (C) 2003 Cargill Dow B.V. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 2833,2003,4,4,Archaeal lipid biomarkers and isotopic evidence of anaerobic methane oxidation associated with gas hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico,Anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) occurs in the Gulf of Mexico gas hydrate systems. Here we show lipid biomarker and isotopic evidence that archaea are involved in AOM. The estimated abundance of total archaeal lipids ranges from 44.8 to 60.4 mug/g (dry sediment) in hydrate-bearing samples but is below detection limit in the hydrate-free sample. The VC values of archaeal lipids range from -69 to -99 parts per thousand in hydrate-bearing samples. These results suggest that biomass of archaea is significantly enhanced through AOM at the gas hydrate deposits. These data also support a currently acknowledged mechanism of AOM mediated by a consortium of sulfate-reducing bacteria and archaea observed in a variety of methane-rich marine settings. Anaerobic oxidation of oil hydrocarbons also occurs in the Gulf of Mexico gas hydrate systems as shown by degradation of n-alkanes (> C-15) in the anoxic sediments. These processes convert hydrocarbons to carbon dioxide and increase pore water alkalinity| which promote the precipitation of enormous volumes of authigenic carbonate rock depleted in C-13. This long-term geologic sequestration of carbon may affect models of global climate change. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6263,2003,3,3,Assessing future energy and transport systems: The case of fuel cells - Part 2: Environmental performance,Goal| Scope and Background. Assessing future energy and transport systems is of major importance for providing timely information for decision makers. In the discussion of technology options| fuel cells are often portrayed as attractive options for power plants and automotive applications. However| when analysing these systems| the LCA analyst is confronted with methodological problems| particularly with data gaps and the requirement of forecasting and anticipation of future developments. This series of two papers aims at providing a methodological framework for assessing future energy and transport systems (Part 1) and applies this to the two major application areas of fuel cells (Part 2). Methods. To allow the LCA of future energy and transport systems| forecasting tools like| amongst others| cost estimation methods and process simulation of systems are investigated with respect to the applicability in LCAs of future systems (Part 1). The manufacturing process of an SOFC stack is used as an illustration for the forecasting procedure. In Part 2| detailed LCAs of fuel cell power plants and power trains are carried out including fuel (hydrogen| methanol| gasoline| diesel and natural gas) and energy converter production. To compare it with competing technologies| internal combustion engines (automotive applications) and reciprocating engines| gas turbines and combined cycle plants (stationary applications) are also analysed. Results and Discussion. Principally| the investigated forecasting methods are suitable for future energy system assessment. The selection of the best method depends on different factors such as required ressources| quality of the results and flexibility. In particular| the time horizon of the investigation determines which forecasting tool may be applied. Environmentally relevant process steps exhibiting a significant time dependency shall always be investigated using different independent forecasting tools to ensure stability of the results. The results of the LCA underline that| in general| fuel cells offer advantages in the impact categories usually dominated by pollutant emissions| such as acidification and eutrophication| whereas for global warming and primary energy demand| the situation depends on a set of parameters such as driving cycle and fuel economy ratio in mobile applications and thermal/total efficiencies in stationary applications. For the latter impact categories| the choice of the primary energy carrier for fuel production (renewable or fossil) dominates the impact reduction. With increasing efficiency and improving emission performance of the conventional systems| the competition in both mobile and stationary applications is getting even stronger. The production of the fuel cell system is of low overall significance in stationary applications| whereas in vehicles| the lower life-time of the vehicle leads to a much higher significance of the power train production. Recommendations and Perspectives. In future| rapid technological and energy economic development will bring further advances for both fuel cells and conventional energy converters. Therefore| LCAs at such an early stage of the market development can only be considered preliminary. It is an essential requirement to accompany the ongoing research and development with iterative LCAs| constantly pointing at environmental hot spots and bottlenecks. 6262,2003,3,4,Assessing future energy and transport systems: The case of fuel cells Part I: Methodological aspects,Goal| Scope and Background. Assessing future energy and transport systems is of major importance for providing timely information for decision makers. In the discussion of technology options| fuel cells are often portrayed as attractive options for power plants and automotive applications. However| when analysing these systems| the LCA analyst is confronted with methodological problems| particularly with data gaps and the requirement of an anticipation of future developments. This series of two papers aims at providing a methodological framework for assessing future energy and transport systems (Part 1) and applies this to the two major application areas of fuel cells (Part 2). Methods. To allow the LCA of future energy and transport systems forecasting tools like| amongst others| cost estimation methods and process simulation of systems are investigated with respect to the applicability in LCAs of future systems (Part 1). The manufacturing process of an SOFC stack is used as an illustration for the forecasting procedure. In Part 2| detailed LCAs of fuel cell power plants and power trains are carried out including fuel (hydrogen| methanol| gasoline| diesel and natural gas) and energy converter production. To compare it with competing technologies| internal combustion engines (automotive applications) and reciprocating engines| gas turbines and combined cycle plants (stationary applications) are analysed as well. Results and Discussion. Principally| the investigated forecasting methods are suitable for future energy system assessment. The selection of the best method depends on different factors such as required ressources| quality of the results and flexibility. In particular| the time horizon of the investigation determines which forecasting tool may be applied. Environmentally relevant process steps exhibiting a significant time dependency shall always be investigated using different independent forecasting tools to ensure stability of the results. The results of the LCA (Part 2) underline that principally| fuel cells offer advantages in the impact categories which are typically dominated by pollutant emissions| such as acidification and eutrophication| whereas for global warming and primary energy demand| the situation depends on a set of parameters such as driving cycle and fuel economy ratio in mobile applications and thermal/total efficiencies in stationary applications. For the latter impact categories| the choice of the primary energy carrier for fuel production (renewable or fossil) dominates the impact reduction| With increasing efficiency and improving emission performance of the conventional systems| the competition regarding all impact categories in both mobile and stationary applications is getting even stronger. The production of the fuel cell system is of low overall significance in stationary applications| whereas in automotive applications| the production of the fuel cell power train and required materials leads to increased impacts compared to internal combustion engines and thus reduces the achievable environmental impact reduction. Recommendations and Perspectives. The rapid technological and energy economic development will bring further advances for both fuel cells and conventional energy converters. Therefore| LCAs at such an early stage of the market development can only be considered preliminary. It is an essential requirement to accompany the ongoing research and development with iterative LCAs| constantly pointing at environmental hot spots and bottlenecks. 2710,2003,3,3,Assessing the potential of renewable energy sources in Turkey,To meet Turkey's growing energy demand| the installed electric power capacity of 27.8 GW in 2001 has to be doubled by 2010 and increased fourfold by 2020. The difference between Turkey's total primary energy supply (TPES) of from its own sources and total final consumption (TFC) is projected grow from 1 quad (1.06-2.06) in 1999 to 5.71 quads (2.79-8.5) in 2020 (1 quad = 293.071 TWh). Turkey's limited amount of fossil fuels has a present average ratio of proved reserves of 97.38 quads to production rate of 3.2 quads yr(-1) of about 30 years. Turkey's reliance on fossil fuel-based energy systems to meet the growing demand is most likely to exacerbate the issues of energy insecurity| national environmental degradation| and global climate change in increasing proportions. Economically-feasible renewable energy potential in Turkey is estimated at a total of ca. 1.69 quads yr(-1) (495.4 TWh yr(-1)) with the potential for 0.67 quads yr(-1) (196.7 TWh yr(-1)) of biomass energy| 0.42 quads yr(-1) (124 TWh yr(-1)) of hydropower| 0.35 quads yr(-1) (102.3 TWh yr(-1)) of solar energy| 0.17 quads yr(-1) (50 TWh yr(-1)) of wind energy| and 0.08 quads yr(-1) (22.4 TWh yr(-1)) of geothermal energy. Pursuit and implementation of sustainability-based energy policy could provide about 90 and 35% of Turkey's total energy supply and consumption projected in 2010| respectively. Utilization of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation would necessitate about 23.2 Mha (29.8%) of Turkey's land resources. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2782,2003,2,4,Assessing winter wheat responses to climate change scenarios: A simulation study in the US Great Plains,Hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a major crop in the Great Plains region of the U. S. The goal of this assessment effort was to investigate the influence of two contrasting global climate change projections (U. K. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) on the yield and percent kernel nitrogen content of winter wheat at three locations in Nebraska. These three locations represent sub-humid and semi arid areas and the transition between these areas and are also representative of major portions of the winter wheat growing areas of the central Great Plains. Climate scenarios based on each of the projections for each location were developed using the LARS-WG weather generator along with data from automated weather stations. CERES-Wheat was used to simulate the responses for two contrasting cultivars of wheat using two sowing dates. The first sowing date represented current sowing dates appropriate for each location. The second sowing date was later and represents the approximate date when the mean air temperature from the climate scenarios is the same as the mean air temperature from the actual climate data at the current sowing dates. The yield and percent kernel nitrogen content using the two climate scenarios generally decrease going from the sub-humid eastern to the semi arid western parts of Nebraska. Results from these simulations indicate that yield and percent kernel nitrogen content using the two climate scenarios could not both be maintained at levels currently simulated. Protein content (directly related to kernel nitrogen content) and end-use quality are the primary determinants for the use of hard red winter wheat in baked goods. Nitrogen management and new cultivars| which can enhance the uptake and translocation of nitrogen| will be proactive steps to meet the challenges of global climate change as represented by these climate scenarios. 6299,2003,3,3,Assessment of the environmental impact of management measures for the biodegradable fraction of municipal solid waste in Sao Paulo City,There is increasing concern about landfilling of biodegradable wastes. Therefore| biological treatment processes such as composting and biogasification have been considered as alternative strategies for managing those wastes. In this work| life cycle assessment was employed to compare the environmental impacts of landfilling| composting| and biological treatment of municipal solid waste in Sao Paulo City| Brazil. Energy consumption| recovered resources| and emissions to air and water were quantified and analyzed in terms of their potential contribution to global warming| acidification| and nutrient enrichment impact. The results demonstrated that processes that require high levels of energy consumption| such as wastewater treatment| play an important role in the outcome of environmental impact potentials. It was found that the landfilling of all waste is generally the worst strategy from an environmental point of view. However| significant reductions in the resulting impacts can be accomplished through biogasification and composting of the biodegradable fraction. Regarding composting| the application of a biofilter for gas treatment reduced significantly the gaseous emissions. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6186,2003,4,4,Atmospheric chemistry of C2F5C(O)CF(CF3)(2): Photolysis and reaction with Cl atoms| OH radicals| and ozone,Smog-chamber Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) techniques were used to study the kinetics and photochemistry of C2F5C(O)CF(CF3)(2) in 50-700 Torr of air at 296 K. Upper limits for the rate constants of reactions of Cl atoms| OH radicals| and ozone with C2F5C(O)CF(CF3)(2) were established: k(Cl) < 1.7 x 10(-19)| k(OH) < 5 x 10(-16)| and k(O3) < 4 x 10(-22) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The ultraviolet absorption spectrum Of C2F5C(O)CF(CF3)(2) has a maximum at 305 nm where sigma(e) = 6.8 x 10(-20) cm(2) molecule(-1). C2F5C(O)CF(CF3)(2) is removed from the atmosphere by photolysis| which occurs on a time scale of approximately 1-2 weeks. As a result of its short atmospheric lifetime| the global warming potential of C2F5C(O)CF(CF3)(2) is negligible. 2716,2003,2,4,Atmospheric CO2 increase benefits symbiotic N-2 fixation by legumes under drought,Leguminous plants are considered to have a Competitive advantage under global climate change because of increased rates of symbiotic nitrogen (ND fixation in response to increased atmospheric CO2. However| this hypothetical advantage may not be realized under actual climate change due to the associated increase in frequency and duration of drought| as N-2 fixation in legume species such as soybean| is sensitive to soil drying. Yet| it has been discovered that N-2 fixation in soybean becomes drought-tolerant under increased CO2 concentration. The reduced susceptibility of N-2 fixation to drought was associated with an increase in total nonstructural carbohydrates and a decrease in ureides in leaves. These results empirically indicate that legumes will have substantial comparative advantage over cereals under climate change. 6034,2003,4,2,Atmospheric perfluorocarbons,Collectively| man-made emissions of a few greenhouse gases may cause about the same amount of global warming as increasing carbon dioxide. Among the most potent of these non-CO2 greenhouse gases are the perfluorocarbons that have extraordinarily long atmospheric lifetimes of 10 000 to more than 50 000 yr. We report atmospheric concentrations over two decades| between 1978 and 1997| of the three most abundant perfluorocarbons-CF4| C2F6| and C3F8-and delineate the sources that account for the present abundances and trends. We show that C2F6 and C3F8 are present at only 2.9 and 0.2 pptv| respectively. CF4 is the most abundant perfluorocarbon at 74 pptv (in 1997) of which about 40 pptv are from natural emissions| 33 pptv from aluminum manufacturing| and 1 pptv from the semiconductor industry. The increasing trend of CF4 has slowed in recent years due to the major reductions in the emission rate per ton of aluminum produced. The effect of the falling emission factor is partially offset by increased production and increasing use by the semiconductor industry. 2770,2003,4,4,Atmospheric sulfur deposition alters pathways of gaseous carbon production in peatlands,[1] Peatlands represent large carbon (C) reservoirs that can act as a source or sink for greenhouse gases. The response of peatland gaseous C fluxes to global climate change and atmospheric sulfate deposition| however| remains uncertain. Methanogenesis is thought to be one of the most important anaerobic C mineralization pathways in peatlands| especially in regions where input of sulfate from acid deposition is low. However| sulfate reduction has been quantified rarely in freshwater wetlands. Here we report greater anaerobic C flow through sulfate reduction than through methanogenesis at all sites situated along a global atmospheric sulfur deposition gradient. Stoichiometric mass balance suggests that fermentation is a dominant anaerobic C mineralization pathway in unpolluted peatlands| while methanogenesis contributed minimally to total anaerobic carbon mineralization in these sites. Furthermore| global increases of atmospheric sulfur deposition minimize the impacts of climatic warming by simultaneously decreasing rates of methanogenesis while causing little change in rates of total anaerobic C mineralization in Sphagnum-dominated peatlands. 2724,2003,2,4,Avian migration phenology and global climate change,There is mounting evidence that global climate change has extended growing seasons| changed distribution patterns| and altered the phenology of flowering| breeding| and migration. For migratory birds| the timing of arrival on breeding territories and over-wintering grounds is a key determinant of reproductive success| survivorship| and fitness. But we know little of the factors controlling earlier passage in long-distance migrants. Over the past 30 years in Oxfordshire| U.K.| the average arrival and departure dates of 20 migrant bird species have both advanced by 8 days; consequently| the overall residence time in Oxfordshire has remained unchanged. The timing of arrival has advanced in relation to increasing winter temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa| whereas the timing of departure has advanced after elevated summer temperatures in Oxfordshire. This finding demonstrates that migratory phenology is quite likely to be affected by global climate change and links events in tropical winter quarters with those in temperate breeding areas. 6156,2003,4,4,Benthic macroinvertebrates in Swedish streams: community structure| taxon richness| and environmental relations,Spatial scale| e.g. from the stream channel| riparian zone| and catchment to the regional and global scale is currently an important topic in running water management and bioassessment. An increased knowledge of how the biota is affected by human alterations and management measures taken at different spatial scales is critical for improving the ecological quality of running waters. However| more knowledge is needed to better understand the relationship between environmental factors at different spatial scales| assemblage structure and taxon richness of running water organisms. In this study| benthic macroinvertebrate data from 628 randomly selected streams were analysed for geographical and environmental relationships. The dataset also included 100 environmental variables| from local measures such as in-stream substratum and vegetation type| catchment vegetation and land-use| and regional variables such as latitude and longitude. Cluster analysis of the macroinvertebrate data showed a continuous gradient in taxonomic composition among the cluster groups from north to south. Both locally measured variables (e.g. water chemistry| substratum composition) and regional factors (e.g. latitude| longitude| and an ecoregional delineation) were important for explaining the variation in assemblage structure and taxon richness for stream benthic macroinvertebrates. This result is of importance when planning conservation and management measurements| implementing large-scale biomonitoring programs| and predicting how human alterations (e.g. global warming) will affect running water ecosystems. 2765,2003,5,4,Beryllium-10 dating of Mount Everest moraines indicates a strong monsoon influence and glacial synchroneity throughout the Himalaya,Moraine successions in glaciated valleys south of Mount Everest provide evidence for at least eight glacial advances during the late Quaternary. Cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) surface exposure dating of moraine boulders defines the timing of each glacial advance and refines the previous glacial chronologies. The CRN data show that glaciation was most extensive during the early part of the last glacial (marine oxygen isotype stage [MIS] 3 and earlier)| but limited during MIS 2 (the global Last Glacial Maximum) and the Holocene. A previously assumed Neoglacial advance is dated to 3.6 +/- 0.3 ka and the CRN dates confirm a glacial advance ca. 1 ka. These results show that glaciations on the south side of Everest were not synchronous with the advance of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets| yet glaciations within the Himalaya| the world's highest mountain belt| were synchronous during the late Quaternary. The existence of glacial advances during times of increased insolation suggests that enhanced moisture delivered by an active south Asian summer monsoon is largely responsible for glacial advances in this part of the Himalaya. These data allow us to quantify the importance of global climate change and monsoon influence on glaciation in the Himalaya. 6247,2003,3,4,Biological impacts of deep-sea carbon dioxide injection inferred from indices of physiological performance,A recent proposal to store anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the deep ocean is assessed here with regard to the impacts on deep-living fauna. The stability of the deepsea has allowed the evolution of species ill-equipped to withstand rapid environmental changes. Low metabolic rates of most deep-sea species are correlated with low capacities for pH buffering and low concentrations of ion-transport proteins. Changes in seawater carbon dioxide partial pressure (Pco(2)) may thus lead to large cellular Pco(2) and pH changes. Oxygen transport proteins of deepsea animals are also highly sensitive to changes in pH. Acidosis leads to metabolic suppression| reduced protein synthesis| respiratory stress| reduced metabolic scope and| ultimately| death. Deep-sea CO2 injection as a means of controlling atmospheric CO2 levels should be assessed with careful consideration of potential biological impacts. In order to properly evaluate the risks within a relevant timeframe| a much more aggressive approach to research is warranted. 2830,2003,2,4,Biological indicators in the Caribbean coastal zone and their role in integrated coastal management,Caribbean coastal ecosystems are increasingly being threatened by natural and anthropogenic factors. The scale of these factors is at local| national| regional and global levels. Threats include the effects of fisheries and extraction| eutrophication| siltation| and pollution as well as global climate events such as El Nino and global climate change. Integrated coastal management (ICM) should clearly demonstrate the adverse effects of environmental impacts| thus justifying the need for mitigation and should evaluate the success of management efforts. ICM requires robust indicators that gauge the 'health' of the coast in relation to environmental| social and economic activities. Biological indicators (bioindicators) offer a signal of the biological condition in an ecosystem. Using bioindicators as an early warning of pollution or degradation in an ecosystem can help sustain critical resources. Biological indicators in the Caribbean are focused around particular ecosystems| especially coral reefs| seagrass beds and mangrove forests and include a range of biological parameters relating to particular species| groups of species and biological processes. The use of these indicators is critically reviewed and the presence or absence of a relevant| framework for their use in Caribbean ICM programs is discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6029,2003,2,4,Biological pump in northwestern North Pacific,The northwestern North Pacific is considered to be one of the most productive areas in the global ocean. Although the marginal zones along the Japanese and Kuril islands| Kamchatka Peninsula| and Aleutian Islands are certainly productive| recent studies do not always show high primary production values in the western subarctic gyre (WSG). In addition| a recent analysis of the biological pump in the WSG showed that| in contrast to what was previously reported| the vertical change of the particulate organic carbon flux with depth is large. Nevertheless| the biological pump in the northwestern North Pacific may function to draw down the partial pressure of CO(2) in the surface water because the ratio of the organic carbon flux to inorganic carbon flux (C(or)/C(inorg))| the export flux| and the export ratio from the surface water are higher than those in other oceans. This article also introduces recent research on changes to the biological pump that might have been caused by global warming. 2777,2003,3,2,Biotic landfill cover treatments for mitigating methane emissions,Landfill methane (CH4) emissions have been cited as one of the anthropogenic gas releases that can and should be controlled to reduce global climate change. This article reviews recent research that identifies ways to enhance microbial consumption of the gas in the aerobic portion of a landfill cover. Use of these methods can augment CH4 emission reductions achieved by gas collection or provide a sole means to consume CH4 at small landfills that do not have active gas collection systems. Field studies indicate that high levels of CH4 removal can be achieved by optimizing natural soil microbial processes. Further| during biotic conversion| not all of the CH4 carbon is converted to carbon dioxide (CO2) gas and released to the atmosphere; some of it will be sequestered in microbial biomass. Because biotic covers can employ residuals from other municipal processes| financial benefits can also accrue from avoided costs for residuals disposal. 6141,2003,2,4,Body size| performance and fitness in Galapagos marine iguanas,Complex organismal traits such as body size are influenced by innumerable selective pressures| making the prediction of evolutionary trajectories for those traits difficult. A potentially powerful way to predict fitness in natural systems is to study the composite response of individuals in terms of performance measures| such as foraging or reproductive performance. Once key performance measures are identified in this top-down approach| we can determine the underlying physiological mechanisms and gain predictive power over long-term evolutionary processes. Here we use marine iguanas as a model system where body size differs by more than one order of magnitude between island populations. We identified foraging efficiency as the main performance measure that constrains body size. Mechanistically| foraging performance is determined by food pasture height and the thermal environment| influencing intake and digestion. Stress hormones may be a flexible way of influencing an individual's response to low-food situations that may be caused by high population density| famines| or anthropogenic disturbances like oil spills. Reproductive performance| on the other hand| increases with body size and is mediated by higher survival of larger hatchlings from larger females and increased mating success of larger males. Reproductive performance of males may be adjusted via plastic hormonal feedback mechanisms that allow individuals to assess their social rank annually within the current population size structure. When integrated| these data suggest that reproductive performance favors increased body size (influenced by reproductive hormones)| with an overall limit imposed by foraging performance (influenced by stress hormones). Based on our mechanistic understanding of individual performances we predicted an evolutionary increase in maximum body size caused by global warming trends. We support this prediction using specimens collected during 1905. We also show in a common-garden experiment that body size may have a genetic component in iguanids. This 'performance paradigm' allows predictions about adaptive evolution in natural populations. 2750,2003,2,4,Can soil temperature direct the composition of high arctic plant communities?,Low temperatures exert a primary constraint on the Growth of high arctic vascular plants. However| investigations into the impact of temperature on high arctic plants rarely separate out the role of air and soil temperatures| and few data exist to indicate whether soil temperatures alone can significantly influence the growth of high arctic vascular plants in a manner that might direct community composition. We examined the response of high arctic plants of three functional types (grasses| sedges/rushes and non-graminoids) to manipulated soil temperature under common air temperature conditions. Target plants| within intact soil cores| were placed in water baths at a range of temperatures between 4.9 and 15.3degreesC for one growing season. Grasses responded most rapidly to increased soil temperature| with increased total live plant mass. above-ground live mass and total below-ground live mass| with non-graminoids having the lowest| and sedges/ rushes an intermediate degree of response. The ratio of above-ground live mass to total live mass increased in all growth forms. Grasses. in particular| responded to enhanced soil temperatures by increasing shoot size rather than shoot number. In all growth forms the mass of root tissue beneath the moss layer increased significantly and to a similar extent with increasing soil temperature. These results clearly indicate that different growth forms| although collected from the same plant community| respond differently to changes in soil temperature. As a consequence| factors influencing soil temperature in high arctic ecosystems| such as global climate change or herbivory (which leads to reduced moss depth and increased soil temperatures)| may also direct chances in vascular plant community composition. 6162,2003,2,4,Can solar variability explain global warming since 1970?,[1] The magnitude of the Sun's influence on climate has been a subject of intense debate. Estimates of this magnitude are generally based on assumptions regarding the forcing due to solar irradiance variations and climate modeling. This approach suffers from uncertainties that are difficult to estimate. Such uncertainties are introduced because the employed models may not include important but complex processes or mechanisms or may treat these in too simplified a manner. Here we take a more empirical approach. We employ time series of the most relevant solar quantities| the total and UV irradiance between 1856 and 1999 and the cosmic rays flux between 1868 and 1999. The time series are constructed using direct measurements wherever possible and reconstructions based on models and proxies at earlier times. These time series are compared with the climate record for the period 1856 to 1970. The solar records are scaled such that statistically the solar contribution to climate is as large as possible in this period. Under this assumption we repeat the comparison but now including the period 1970-1999. This comparison shows without requiring any recourse to modeling that since roughly 1970 the solar influence on climate (through the channels considered here) cannot have been dominant. In particular| the Sun cannot have contributed more than 30% to the steep temperature increase that has taken place since then| irrespective of which of the three considered channels is the dominant one determining Sun-climate interactions: tropospheric heating caused by changes in total solar irradiance| stratospheric chemistry influenced by changes in the solar UV spectrum| or cloud coverage affected by the cosmic ray flux. 6109,2003,2,4,Carbon dioxide and temperature effects on evapotranspiration and water use efficiency of soybean,Rising CO2 and potential global warming will cause changes in evapotranspiration (ET). Our research objective was to determine the impact of CO2 and air temperature on canopy ET| water use efficiency (WUE)| foliage temperature| and canopy resistance (Re) of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.]. Plants were grown in sunlit| controlled-environment chambers at cyclic maximum/minimum air temperatures from 28/18degreesC to 44/34degreesC and CO2 of 350 or 700 mumol mol(-1). Maximum ET rate in the early afternoon at 35 d after planting ranged from 7.5 mol m(-2) s(-1) at 28/18degreesC to 19.0 Mol m(-2) s(-1) at 44/34degreesC. Daily ET during the middle of the season ranged from 260 mol H2O m(-2) d(-1)(4.7 mm d(-1)) at 28/18degreesC to 660 mol H2O m(-2) d(-1)(11.9 mm d(-1)) at 44/34degreesC. Mean daily ET was linearly related to mean air temperature (T-air) as: [Mean daily ET = 21.4 X T-air - 306| r(2) = 0.99 (mol H2O m(-2) d(-1))| or mean daily ET = 0.385 X T-air - 5.5 (mm d(-1))]. Doubled CO2 caused a 9% decrease in ET at 28/18degreesC| but CO2 had little effect at 40/30degreesC or 44/34degreesC. Whole-day WUE declined linearly with air temperature| with a slope of -0.150 [(mumol CO2 mmol(-1) H2O) degreesC(-1)]. Changes in ET and WUE were governed by changes in foliage temperature and Re. In conclusion| increases in temperature anticipated by climate change could more than offset decreases of ET that would be caused by increases in CO2. 2736,2003,3,3,Carbon dynamics and land-use choices: building a regional-scale multidisciplinary model,Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper| we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem| as well as their interactions. The model is national scale| and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over 50 years. It combines an ecological process model| parameterized using field and other data| with an economic model| estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines| reward sequestration| and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6104,2003,4,4,Carbon geochemistry of cold seeps: Methane fluxes and transformation in sediments from Kazan mud volcano| eastern Mediterranean Sea,Despite growing concerns about potential enhancement of global warming and slope failure by methane produced by gas hydrate dissociation| much uncertainty surrounds estimates of gas hydrate reservoir sizes| as well as methane fluxes and oxidation rates at the sea floor. For cold seep sediments of the eastern Mediterranean Sea| depth-dependent methane concentrations and rates of anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) are constrained by modeling the measured pore-water sulfate profile. The calculated dissolved methane distribution and flux are sensitive to the advective flow velocity| which is estimated from the depth distributions of conservative pore-water constituents (Na| B). Near-complete anaerobic oxidation of the upward methane flux of similar to 6.0 mol m(-2) yr(-1) is supported by the depth distributions of indicative biomarkers| and the carbon isotopic compositions of organic matter and dissolved inorganic carbon. Pore-water and solid-phase data are consistent with a narrow depth interval of AOM| 14-18 cm below the sediment-water interface. Based on an isotopic mass balance| the biomass of the microbial population carrying out oxidation of methane coupled to sulfate reduction at the given methane flux represents similar to 20% of the total organic carbon| which is a significant pool of in situ formed organic matter. Model results indicate that the asymptotic methane concentration is reached a few meters below the sediment surface. The predicted asymptotic concentration is close to the in situ saturation value with respect to gas hydrate| suggesting that the rate of shallow gas hydrate formation is controlled by the ascending methane flux. The proposed model approach can be used to predict the formation of gas hydrate| and to quantify methane fluxes plus transformation rates in surface sediments where fluid advection is an important transport mechanism. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2759,2003,5,3,Carbon isotopes across the Eocene-Oligocene boundary sequence of Kutch| western India: Implications to oceanic productivity and pCO(2) change,[1] Analyses of foraminiferal delta(18)O (delta(18)O(carb))| delta(13)C (delta(13)C(carb)) and bulk organic matter (delta(13)C(org)) across a tropical Eocene/Oligocene boundary (EOB) section from Kutch basin| western India show that the ocean cooling ( at least similar to3degreesC) is coincident with a rapid enrichment (similar to3parts per thousand) in delta(13)C(org) but depletion (similar to1.5parts per thousand) in delta(13)C(carb). The decrease in pCO(2) in ocean-atmosphere system across the boundary| possibly resulting from enhanced silicate weathering in rising Himalayas and accompanied organic carbon burial in ocean| caused the cooling and delta(13)C(org) enrichment. The end-Eocene climatic stress decreased the oceanic productivity (and delta(13)C(carb)) eventually causing extinction of larger benthic foraminiferal community. The data suggest a critical role of tropical ocean and direct forcing of CO2 on global climate change at least for this crucial Cenozoic transition. 2786,2003,5,4,Catastrophic arid episodes in the Eastern Mediterranean linked with the North Atlantic Heinrich events,The response of continental climate to the well-documented climate oscillations during the last glacial period has been a subject of intense interest| yet much less is known about the influence on regional continental climates than in the marine or polar realms of Earth. The detailed lake-level history of the closed Lake Lisan (paleo-Dead Sea) in the Middle East has been reconstructed from shoreline indications and high-resolution U-Th and C-14 chronologies| thus providing data on the response of the lake's catchment area to the climate changes during the corresponding period. We present a correlation between the newly developed Lake Lisan level curve for the past 55 k.y: and the North Atlantic Heinrich events. The correlation indicates a closely connected climate response between these North Atlantic events and the hydrologic conditions that prevailed in the Eastern Mediterranean. Our findings show that although the generally cooler conditions that prevailed during the last glaciation favored high levels of the lake| catastrophic events in the North Atlantic| which are associated with maximum cooling| have been responsible for droughts in the Eastern Mediterranean. We infer that cold-water input to the Mediterranean originating in the collapse of the North Atlantic Deep Water circulation caused the reduction of evaporation and less precipitation in the Eastern Mediterranean. 5977,2003,2,4,Catastrophic die-off of Peary caribou on the western queen Elizabeth Islands| Canadian High Arctic,The Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) is an endangered species in Canada| having been in an overall decline since 1961. Sightings of Peary caribou were compared from two aerial searches| in 1993 and 1998| on Bathurst and its neighbouring islands| western Queen Elizabeth Islands in the Canadian High Arctic. The comparison indicated a near-total (98%) cataclysmic decline in the number of Peary caribou seen per unit of search effort. In summer 1993| 2400 caribou were counted during 33.8 h of low-level helicopter searches. In contrast| in summer 1998| only 43 caribou were seen within the same area during 35.2 h of low-level| helicopter searches. The frequency of observation was markedly different: 118.3 caribou/100 min in 1993| but only 2.0 caribou/100 min in 1998. The number of carcasses indicated that the decline resulted from deaths and not from mass emigration. Males died at a disproportionately higher rate than females among all 1+ yr old caribou| and bulls (4+ yr) compared to cows (3+ yr) had died at an even greater rate. Widespread| prolonged| exceptionally severe snow and ice conditions from 1994 95 to 1996-97 caused the die-off. Trends in snowfall are consistent with predictions for global warming in the western Canadian High Arctic. Future climate change may increase the frequency of years with unfavorable snow and ice conditions| which could prevent or at least impede future recovery of Peary caribou populations on the western Queen Elizabeth Islands| particularly to sizes that would support subsistence harvesting. 6123,2003,5,4,Centennial-scale dry-wet variations in East Asia,This study attempts to combine four independent long-term climatic data and modern observations into one cohesive set; to describe the spatial and temporal patterns of variability of dry and wet periods in East Asia over the past one thousand years; and to examine physical causes of the pattern variations. The data include the 220-year observed precipitation in Seoul| South Korea| the dryness-wetness intensity data in eastern China for the last 530 years| and other two independent chronologies of dryness-wetness grades in the past millennium in eastern China based on instrumental observations and historical documents. Various analysis methods including wavelet transform and rotated empirical orthogonal function were used in revealing climate variations from these datasets. Major results show that the dry and wet anomalies initially appeared in the north part of eastern China and then migrated southward to affect south China. This process is repeated about every 70 years. However| in contrast in the last two decades of the twentieth century a dry situation appeared in north China and a wet climate predominated in the south part of the country. The multidecadal variations of the monsoon circulation in East Asia and the thermal contrast between inland Asia and its surrounding oceans may contribute to the dry-wet phase alternation or the migration of dry-wet anomalies. In regional scale variations| a consistent dry or wet pattern was observed spreading from the lower Yangtze River valley to South Korea. Frequencies of severe dry-wet situations were low in the eighteenth and nineteenth century and they were higher in the twentieth century. The recent increasing trend in frequencies of severe dry-wet chances occurred along with global warming and regional climatic changes in China. 6160,2003,3,4,Central and individual air-conditioning systems - A comparison of environmental impacts and resource consumption in a life cycle perspective,This paper compares individual (split) and central systems of air-conditioning in a life cycle perspective| taking into account the environmental impacts and resource consumption during resource extraction| material production| production of the air-conditioning units| their use| disposal and recycling. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used in conducting this comparison. Central systems have a longer lifetime than individual systems| lower electricity consumption and maintenance requirements during the use phase| and a higher recycling potential during the disposal phase. However| to transfer cool air| central systems use a large quantity of water pipes or air ducts| the production of which contributes significantly to resource use. The LCA study reveals that| on the whole| the central systems generally use less resources than split systems and result in lower environmental impacts. The paper suggests a need for producers of air-conditioners to consider a change from being suppliers of air-conditioning hardware to being suppliers of cool air in order to overcome the initial cost constraints of central systems and realize their environmental and economic improvement potential to the benefit of the environment| and the industry as well as customers. 6304,2003,2,4,Changes in biologically active ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface,Since publication of the 1998 UNEP Assessment| there has been continued rapid expansion of the literature on UV-B radiation. Many measurements have demonstrated the inverse relationship between column ozone amount and UV radiation| and in a few cases long-term increases due to ozone decreases-have been identified. The quantity| quality and availability of ground-based UV measurements relevant to assessing the environmental impacts of ozone changes continue to improve. Recent studies have contributed to delineating regional and temporal differences due to aerosols| clouds| and ozone. Improvements in radiative transfer modelling capability now enable more accurate characterization of clouds| snow-cover| and topographical effects. A standardized scale for reporting UV to the public has gained wide acceptance. There has been increased use of satellite data to estimate geographic variability and trends in UV. Progress has been made in assessing the utility of satellite retrievals of UV radiation by comparison with measurements at the Earth's surface. Global climatologies of UV radiation are now available on the Internet. Anthropogenic aerosols play a more important role in attenuating UV irradiances than has been assumed previously| and this will have implications for the accuracy of UV retrievals from satellite data. Progress has been made inferring historical levels of UV| radiation using measurements of ozone (from satellites or from ground-based networks) in conjunction with measurements of total solar radiation obtained from extensive meteorological networks. We cannot yet be sure whether global ozone has reached a minimum. Atmospheric chlorine concentrations are beginning to decrease. However| bromine concentrations are still increasing. While these halogen concentrations remain high| the ozone layer remains vulnerable to further depletion from events such as volcanic eruptions that inject material into the stratosphere. Interactions between global warming and ozone depletion could delay ozone recovery by several years| and this topic remains an area of intense research interest. Future changes in greenhouse gases will affect the future evolution of ozone through chemical| radiative| and dynamic processes. In this highly coupled system| an evaluation of the relative importance of these processes is difficult; studies are ongoing. A reliable assessment of these effects on total column ozone is limited by uncertainties in lower stratospheric response to these changes. At several sites| changes in UV differ from those expected from ozone changes alone| possibly as a result of long-term changes in aerosols| snow cover| or clouds. This indicates a possible interaction between climate change and UV radiation. Cloud reflectance measured by satellite has shown a long-term increase at some locations| especially in the Antarctic region| but also in Central Europe| which would tend to reduce the UV radiation. Even with the expected decreases in atmospheric chlorine| it will be several years before the beginning of an ozone recovery can be unambiguously identified at individual locations. Because UV-B is more variable than ozone| any identification of its recovery would be further delayed. 6134,2003,2,4,Changes in flowering and abundance of Delphinium nuttallianum (Ranunculaceae) in response to a subalpine climate warming experiment,High-altitude and high-latitude sites are expected to be very sensitive to global warming| because the biological activity of most plants is restricted by the length of the short snowfree season| which is determined by climate. Long-term observational studies in subalpine meadows of the Colorado Rocky Mountains have shown a strong positive correlation between snowpack and flower production by the forb Delphinium nuttallianum. If a warmer climate reduces annual snowfall in this region then global warming might reduce fitness in D. nuttallianum. In this article we report effects of experimental warming on the abundance and flower production of D. nuttallianum. Plant abundance (both flowering and vegetative plants) was slightly greater on warmed than control plots prior to initiation of the warming treatment in 1991. Since 1994 experimental warming has had a negative effect on D. nuttallianum flower production| reducing both the abundance of flowering plants and the total number of flowers per plant. Flower bud abortion was higher in the heated plots than the controls only in 1994 and 1999. Results from both the warming experiment and analyses of unmanipulated long-term plots suggest that global warming may affect the fecundity of D. nuttallianum| which may have cascading effects on the pollinators that depend on it and on the fecundity of plants that share similar pollinators. 6257,2003,2,4,Changes in seasonal deaths from myocardial infarction,Background: Cardiovascular disease is the major contributor to excess morbidity and mortality in winter. With the rise in temperatures through global warming| and the use of central heating and air conditioning| this seasonal variation may be declining. Aim: To study possible changes in seasonal variation in case-fatality rates of myocardial infarction (MI)| in men and women| over a 20-year period and compare this with possible environmental influences. Design: Retrospective analysis of death certificate and climatological data. Methods: We analysed all monthly death certificate data from Northern Ireland| for death caused by MI from 1979 through 1998 (n = 68 683). Mortality data were standardized to a single reference group for the whole period. Seasonal variation in mortality and in environmental variables was described using the cosinor model. Results: A total of 29 875 women and 38 808 men died from MI during the 20-year period. A significant decrease in mortality from MI was observed in both sexes| accompanied by a non-significant decline in the amplitude of the seasonal rhythm over the study period. Low temperature was associated with higher mortality rates from MI. Discussion: We have documented an overall decline in cardiovascular mortality from 1979 to 1998 together with a small but non-significant decrease in seasonal variation. While improvements in medical care| lifestyle| housing and diet may have contributed to the observed decline in mortality rate| seasonal fluctuations remain a significant problem. 5989,2003,2,4,Changes in shallow lake functioning: response to climate change and nutrient reduction,Nutrient| phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics have been monitored intensively at Loch Leven for 34 years. The data collected reveal a decline in phosphorus concentrations| following major reductions in external nutrient loading| and large changes in its seasonal availability| particularly in recent years. More striking has been an increasing trend in water temperatures| annual means increasing by about 1degreesC over the 34 years| with even greater increases observed for winter and spring periods. In response to these changes| there has been a general pattern of decline in measures of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll| concentrations). Closer inspection reveals that the detailed response is| however| not so consistent with the environmental trends. A significant decline in chlorophyll| concentrations occurred early on in the time series| before major reductions in nutrient availability. Correlation analysis revealed that this decline was associated with the re-appearance of Daphnia grazers. Further declines are only apparent in very recent years; correlation analysis and comparison of trends suggest that these were associated with the observed decline in nutrient concentrations. There was little correlation and no consistent relationship between annual measures of chlorophyll| and water temperature| but winter mean values did show a consistent positive relationship. Spring Daphnia densities showed an even stronger| and significant| positive relationship with spring water temperatures. It is clear from this that the scale of climate change predicted in the future will significantly alter the functioning of shallow lakes and seasonal patterns in water quality. This is a particular concern in Europe with the implementation of the EC Water Framework Directive| as if the net effect of global warming on annual measures of water quality is negative| the principle aim of 'good status' in all surface waters by 2016 will become even more difficult to achieve. 6258,2003,2,4,Changes in summer temperature and heat-related mortality since 1971 in North Carolina| South Finland| and Southeast England,Three climatically diverse regions were studied to determine the impact of temperature change on heat-related mortality from 1971 to 1997. Median regressions showed that May-August temperatures in North Carolina rose by 1.0degreesC (95% CL 0.0-2.0degreesC) from 23.5degreesC (74.3degreesF)| were unchanged in South Finland at 13.5degreesC (56.3degreesF)| and rose in Southeast England 2.1degreesC (0.3-4.0degreesC) from 14.9degreesC (58.8degreesF). After determining for each region the daily temperature (as a 3degreesC band) at which the mortality was the lowest| annual heat-related mortality was obtained as excess mortality per million at temperatures above this. Annual heat-related mortality per million (among the population at risk| aged 55+) fell in North Carolina by 212 (59-365) from 228 (140-317) to only 16 (not significant| NS); fell in South Finland by 282 (66-500) from 382 (257-507) to 99 (NS); and fell in Southeast England by 2.4 (NS) from 111 (41-180) to 108 (41-176). The falls in North Carolina and South Finland remained significant after allowances were made for changes in age| sex| and baseline mortality. Increased air conditioning probably explains the virtual disappearance of heat-related mortality in the hottest region| North Carolina| despite warmer summers. Other lifestyle changes associated with increasing prosperity probably explain the favorable trends in the cooler regions. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved. 6313,2003,2,4,Changes in the breeding biology of the Welcome Swallow (Hirundo tahitica) in New Zealand since colonisation,The Welcome Swallow was first recorded breeding in New Zealand in 1958| but is now common and widespread. Using nest record cards collected throughout New Zealand between 1962 and 1996 we investigated whether measures of breeding success showed temporal trends consistent with the effects of density dependence due to increased population densities. Controlling for potentially confounding factors| we found that: (i) breeding has occurred earlier in more recent years| (ii) nests in more recent years were more likely to produce fledglings| and (iii) there are no temporal trends in clutch size or the probability of at least one offspring failing to fledge. These results suggest that population densities have not yet reached the threshold at which density dependence limits breeding success. Earlier laying in more recent years is compatible with a response to global warming. As predicted for multiple-brooded species| clutch size exhibited a mid-season peak| the timing of which is consistent with the decline in the second half of the season being due to reduced foraging time. There was no evidence for a latitudinal gradient in clutch size within New Zealand. 6084,2003,2,4,Changes in the high-mountain vegetation of the central Iberian peninsula as a probable sign of global warming,Aerial images of the high summits of the Spanish Central Range reveal significant changes in vegetation over the period 1957 to 1991. These changes include the replacement of high-mountain grassland communities dominated by Festuca aragonensis| typical of the Cryoro-Mediterranean belt| by shrub patches of Juniperus communis ssp. alpina and Cytisus oromediterraneus from lower altitudes (Oro-Mediterranean belt). Climatic data indicate a shift towards warmer conditions in this mountainous region since the 1940s| with the shift being particularly marked from 1960. Changes include significantly higher minimum and maximum temperatures| fewer days with snow cover and a redistribution of monthly rainfall. Total yearly precipitation showed no significant variation. There were no marked changes in land use during the time frame considered| although there were minor changes in grazing species in the 19th century. It is hypothesized that the advance of woody species into higher altitudes is probably related to climate change| which could have acted in conjunction with discrete variations in landscape management. The pronounced changes observed in the plant communities of the area reflect the susceptibility of high-mountain Mediterranean species to environmental change. (C) 2003 Annals of Botany Company. 6142,2003,2,4,Changes in the rhizome system of bracken subjected to long-term experimental treatment,1. Bracken Pteridium aquilinum is a serious weed of upland and marginal land. Its extensive rhizome system and large carbohydrate reserves make control difficult. This paper reports the results of seven long-term experiments| established in four diverse UK locations| to test control and vegetation restoration treatments. 2. Samples were obtained from 580 rhizome pits between 1998 and 2000. Total dry mass per unit area (M | a measure of performance) and ratio of frond-bearing to total rhizome dry mass (R | a relative measure of investment in frond production) were measured. 3. The range of means for M in untreated bracken was 1.8-5.1 kg m(-2) | greater than that reported by others (1.2-3.0 kg m(-2) ). Measured values for R were 0.24-0.42| again differing from other reports (0.10-0.38)| probably due to our policy of avoiding advancing bracken fronts. 4. Randomization tests were used to check for non-independence of sampling units. They confirmed the general adequacy of the anova results; there was little detectable interference between plots. Two regions contained matching pairs of experiments| thus variation within region was tested and differences were found in one region. 5. Five bracken control treatments (cutting| herbicide application and combinations) were employed at all but one experiment. Cutting once or twice per year generally gave the best results| reducing M by c . 60% after less than or equal to 5 years. Some subtreatments designed mainly for vegetation restoration| notably surface disturbance| also affected M . 6. R was reduced by herbicide treatment| for example from 0.30 to 0.16. Such low values of R are typical of invading bracken and are thought to represent rejuvenated and invasive rhizomes. Follow-up treatments are needed in such situations. Despite large differences between untreated M at matching experiments on Cannock Chase (Staffordshire)| treatment effects were similar at both sites (cutting twice per year or cutting together with herbicide application were best). At Sourhope (Cheviot Hills) a different pattern of response was obtained| with cutting alone giving better results than treatments involving herbicide. 7. The ratio of rhizome to frond dry mass per unit area was 10 : 1 in good conditions for growth| but the proportionate size of rhizomes could be reduced in poor growing conditions such as wet summers. 8. Synthesis and applications . In order to develop a national control strategy the following must be considered: rhizome mass differs between sites and in response to control treatments; cutting twice per year is generally most effective; where cutting is impossible| herbicide treatment should be applied. Weather may affect rhizome mass| with wet years being detrimental. This raises the possibility that bracken may increase under the drier conditions that may occur with global warming. 2837,2003,4,4,Changes in tropospheric composition and air quality due to stratospheric ozone depletion,Increased UV-B through stratospheric ozone depletion leads to an increased chemical activity in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere). The effect of stratospheric ozone depletion on tropospheric ozone is small (though significant) compared to the ozone generated anthropogenically in areas already experiencing air pollution. Modeling and experimental studies suggest that the impacts of stratospheric ozone depletion on tropospheric ozone are different at different altitudes and for different chemical regimes. As a result the increase in ozone due to stratospheric ozone depletion may be greater in polluted regions. Attributable effects on concentrations are expected only in regions where local emissions make minor contributions. The vertical distribution of NOx (NO + NO2)| the emission of volatile organic compounds and the abundance of water vapor| are important influencing factors. The long-term nature of stratospheric ozone depletion means that even a small increase in tropospheric ozone concentration can have a significant impact on human health and the environment. Trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) and chlorodifluoroacetic acid (CDFA) are produced by the atmospheric degradation of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). TFA has been measured in rain| rivers| lakes| and oceans| the ultimate sink for these and related compounds. Significant anthropogenic sources of TFA other than degradation HCFCs and HFCs have been identified. Toxicity tests under field conditions indicate that the concentrations of TFA and CDFA currently produced by the atmospheric degradation of HFCs and HCFCs do not present a risk to human health and the environment. The impact of the interaction between ozone depletion and future climate change is complex and a significant area of current research. For air quality and tropospheric composition| a range of physical parameters such as temperature| cloudiness and atmospheric transport will modify the impact of UV-B. Changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere including aerosols will also have an impact. For|example| tropospheric OH is the 'cleaning' agent of the troposphere. While increased UV-B increases the OH concentration| increases in concentration of gases like methane| carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds will act as sinks for OH in troposphere and hence change air quality and chemical composition in the troposphere. Also| changes in the aerosol content of the atmosphere resulting from global climate change may affect ozone photolysis rate coefficients and hence reduce or increase tropospheric ozone concentrations. 6053,2003,2,4,Changing features of the climate and glaciers in China's monsoonal temperate glacier region,[ 1] Climatic data| ice core records| the tree ring index| and recorded glacier variations have been used to reconstruct a history of climatic and glacial changes in the monsoonal temperate glacier region of southwestern China during the last 400 years. The region's temperature has increased in a fluctuating manner during the twentieth century after two cold stages of the Little Ice Age ( seventeenth to nineteenth centuries)| with a corresponding retreat of most of the glaciers| against a background of global warming. Retreat rates accelerated after the 1980s. The few advancing glaciers that did exist have started to retreat in recent years. The amount| trend| and amplitude of variation of precipitation have differed in different parts of the region. The Dasuopu ice core| from the western part of the region| shows a decreasing trend in precipitation| the converse of the trend in temperature. In the eastern part of the region| however| a rising trend of rainfall has accompanied increasing temperatures as a result of the variable atmospheric circulations from different sources. The southwest monsoon| the principal controlling factor in the Chinese monsoonal temperate glacier region| can be classified into the Indian monsoon and the Bengal monsoon. The former passes across the Indian Peninsula from the Arabian Sea and transports vapor for precipitation in the western part of the monsoonal temperate glacier region. The Bengal monsoon| originating in the Bay of Bengal| is the major source of precipitation in the eastern part of the region. The eastern part is also influenced by the southeast monsoon arriving from the western Pacific| and the western part is affected in winter by the southern branch of the westerly circulation. This complex atmospheric situation results in differing patterns of precipitation in the western and eastern zones. Although it is clear that both temperature and precipitation affect the glaciers| further work is needed to confirm which of these is the major factor influencing present glacier change. 6012,2003,2,2,Changing heat-related mortality in the United States,Heat is the primary weather-related cause of death in the United States. Increasing heat and humidity| at least partially related to anthropogenic climate change| suggest that a long-term increase in heat-related mortality could occur. We calculated the annual excess mortality on days when apparent temperatures-an index that combines air temperature and humidity-exceeded a threshold value for 28 major metropolitan areas in the United States from 1964 through 1998. Heat-related mortality rates declined significantly over time in 19 of the 28 cities. For the 28-city average| there were 41.0 +/- 4.8 (mean +/- SE) excess heat-related deaths per year (per standard million) in the 1960s and 1970s| 17.3 +/- 2.7 in the 1980s| and 10.5 +/- 2.0 in the 1990s. In the 1960s and 1970s| almost all study cities exhibited mortality significantly above normal on days with high apparent temperatures. During the 1980s| many cities| particularly those in the typically hot and humid southern United States| experienced no excess mortality. In the 1990s| this effect spread northward across interior cities. This systematic desensitization of the metropolitan populace to high heat and humidity over time can be attributed to a suite of technologic| infrastructural| and biophysical adaptations| including increased availability of air conditioning. 6307,2003,4,4,Chemistry of forest fires and regional haze with emphasis on Southeast Asia,The current state of knowledge regarding the chemistry of forest fires and regional haze is reviewed. More than 100 compounds have been identified in wood smoke and many of these have also been observed in field studies. Products of biomass combustion can have different environmental effects: CO(2) and CH(4) may contribute to global warming| NO(x) and SO(2) could contribute to rainwater acidity| whereas smoke particles and polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) could affect human health. Also| photochemical reactions of primary emissions from biomass fires can lead to the production of secondary pollutants such as O(3). Regional haze episodes caused by forest fires have occurred in SE Asia on several occasions during the 1990s and the reported studies of these episodes are reviewed. Only total suspended particles (TSP) were determined in the earlier studies| and more comprehensive chemical investigations have only emerged during the more recent episodes| notably those of 1997 and 1998. To date| most of the measurements have centred on criteria pollutants (SO(2)| NO(2)| CO| O(3) and PM(10))| however| other pollutants (e.g.| VOCs| PAHs) have also been determined in certain studies. Rainwater analyses suggest that forest fires do not have a major acidifying effect because dissolved acidic gases (e.g.| SO(2)) are neutralised by alkaline substances (e.g.| Ca| Mg| K) that are also emitted by forest fires. There is a need for further laboratory and field studies in order to investigate important pollutant transformation mechanisms. 2715,2003,5,4,Chemostratigraphic evidence of Deccan volcanism from the marine osmium isotope record,Continental flood basalt (CFB) volcanism is hypothesized to have played a causative role in global climate change and mass extinctions. Uncertainties associated with radiometric dating preclude a clear chronological assessment of the environmental consequences of CFB volcanism. Our results document a 25% decline in the marine Os-187/Os-188 record that predates the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) and coincides with late Maastrichtian warming. We argue that this decline provides a chemostratigraphic marker of Deccan volcanism and thus constitutes compelling evidence that the main environmental consequence of Deccan volcanism was a transient global warming event of 3degrees to 5degreesC that is fully resolved from the KTB mass extinction. 2800,2003,2,4,Climate change and amphibian declines: is there a link?,Global climates have been changing| sometimes rapidly and dramatically| throughout the evolutionary history of amphibians. Therefore| existing amphibian species have been derived from those that have survived major climatic disturbances. Although recent global climate change has resulted in warming in many regions| temperatures in some areas to date have not changed measurably| or have even cooled. Declines of some amphibian populations have been correlated with climate events| but demonstrations of direct causal relationships need further research. Data are available indicating some indirect effect of climate change on the initiation of breeding activities of some amphibians that occur earlier than in previous springs| but the costs and benefits of these changes are just beginning to be investigated. Climate may also play an indirect role in facilitating epidemics of infectious disease. Regardless of the role that climate changes may have played in past and current amphibian declines| future shifts in climate| should they prove as dramatic as predicted| will certainly pose challenges for surviving amphibian populations and for successful recovery efforts of species that have suffered declines. 6191,2003,4,4,Climate change and sea turtles: a 150-year reconstruction of incubation temperatures at a major marine turtle rookery,Sea turtles show temperature dependent sex determination. Using an empirical relationship between sand and air temperature| we reconstructed the nest temperatures since 1855 at Ascension Island| a major green turtle (Chelonia mydas ) rookery. Our results show that inter-beach thermal variations| previously ascribed to the albedo of the sand| which varies hugely from one beach to another| have persisted for the last century. Reconstructed nest temperatures varied by only 0.5 degreesC on individual beaches over the course of the nesting season| while the temperature difference between two key nesting beaches was always around 3 degreesC. Hence inter-beach thermal variations are the main factor causing a large range of incubation temperatures at this rookery. There was a general warming trend for nests| with a mean increase in reconstructed nest temperatures for different months of between 0.36 and 0.49 degreesC for the last 100 years. 2814,2003,2,4,Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive alien plant: Acacia nilotica ssp indica in Australia,1. Acacia nilotica is a spinescent woody legume that has become highly invasive in several parts of the world| including Australia where it has been declared a weed of national significance. Understanding the likely potential distribution of this notorious plant under current and future climate scenarios will enable policy makers and land managers to prepare appropriate strategies to manage the invasion. 2. CLIMEX was used to synthesize available information from diverse sources to model the invasion potential of A. nilotica and gain insights into the climatic factors limiting its range expansion. The model identified areas at risk of further invasion so that early preventative or ameliorative measures could be undertaken in a timely manner. 3. The potential distribution of A. nilotica in Australia under current climatic conditions is vast| and far greater than the current distribution. 4. Global climate change is likely to increase markedly the potential distribution of A. nilotica in Australia| significantly increasing the area at risk of invasion. The factors of most importance are the expected increases in water-use efficiency of A. nilotica due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations| allowing it to invade more xeric sites further inland| and increased temperatures| allowing it to complete its reproductive life cycle further southward (poleward). 5. Synthesis and applications. Simple paddock quarantine procedures may provide a means of limiting the range of A. nilotica within its potential distribution under current| as well as future| climate scenarios. The projected increased growth potential of A . nilotica throughout its current range suggests that if future management patterns result in seed pods lying unconsumed on the ground| heightened vigilance may be required to identify and eradicate new invasion foci arising from flood dispersal. The increased growth potential may also result in an alteration of the economic balance| in favour of harvesting A. nilotica for agroforestry or local bioenergy projects. A crucial component in containing this invasion will be raising public awareness of the invasion threat posed by A. nilotica| its identification and suitable control techniques. 2818,2003,2,4,Climate change and the skiing industry in southern Ontario (Canada): exploring the importance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation,The winter tourism industry has been repeatedly identified as potentially vulnerable to global climate change. Climate change impact assessments of ski areas in Australia| Europe and North America all project negative consequences for the industry. An important limitation of earlier studies has been the incomplete consideration of snowmaking as a climate adaptation strategy. Recognising that snowmaking is an integral component of the ski industry| this study examined how current and improved snowmaking capacity affects the vulnerability of the ski industry in southern Ontario (Canada) to climate variability and change. A 17 yr record of daily snow conditions and operations from a primary ski area in the region was used to calibrate a ski season simulation model that included a snowmaking module with climatic thresholds and operational decision rules based on interviews with ski area managers. Climate change scenarios (2020s| 2050s| 2080s) were developed by downscaling climate variables from 4 general circulation models (using both IS92a and SIZES emission scenarios) with the LARS weather generator (parameterized to local climate stations) for input into a daily snow depth simulation model. In contrast to earlier studies| the results indicate that ski areas in the region could remain operational in a warmer climate| particularly within existing business planning and investment time horizons (into the 2020s)| The economic impact of additional snowmaking requirements remains an important uncertainty. Under climate change scenarios and current snowmaking technology| the average ski season at the case study ski area was projected to reduce by 0-16 % in the 2020s| 7-32 % in the 2050s and 11-50 % in the 2080s. Concurrent with the projected ski season losses| the estimated amount of snowmaking required increased by 36-144 % in the scenarios for the 2020s. Required snowmaking amounts increased by 48-187 % in the scenarios for the 2020s. The ability of individual ski areas to absorb additional snowmaking costs and remain economically viable in addition to the relative impact of climate change on other nearby ski regions (Quebec| Michigan and Vermont) remain important avenues of further research. The findings reveal the importance of examining a wide range of climate change scenarios and the necessity of including snowmaking and other adaptation strategies in future climate change vulnerability assessments of the ski industry and winter tourism in other regions of the world. 2742,2003,2,4,Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika| Africa,Although the effects of climate warming on the chemical and physical properties of lakes have been documented(1)| biotic and ecosystem-scale responses to climate change have been only estimated or predicted by manipulations and models(1). Here we present evidence that climate warming is diminishing productivity in Lake Tanganyika| East Africa. This lake has historically supported a highly productive pelagic fishery that currently provides 25-40% of the animal protein supply for the populations of the surrounding countries(2). In parallel with regional warming patterns since the beginning of the twentieth century| a rise in surface-water temperature has increased the stability of the water column. A regional decrease in wind velocity has contributed to reduced mixing| decreasing deep-water nutrient upwelling and entrainment into surface waters. Carbon isotope records in sediment cores suggest that primary productivity may have decreased by about 20%| implying a roughly 30% decrease in fish yields. Our study provides evidence that the impact of regional effects of global climate change on aquatic ecosystem functions and services can be larger than that of local anthropogenic activity or overfishing. 2730,2003,2,4,Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe,It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However| we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe| nonlinear| with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degreesC| and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world| such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion| are very diverse| often with high levels of restricted endemism| and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change. 2802,2003,2,3,Climate change scenarios and the effect of sea-level rise for Estonia,Climate warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to have a significant impact on natural environment and human activity in high latitudes. Mostly| it should have a positive effect on human activity. The main threats in Estonia that could be connected with sea-level rise are the flooding of coastal areas| erosion of sandy beaches and the destruction of harbour constructions. Possible climate change and its negative impacts in the coastal regions of Estonia are estimated in this paper. Climate change scenarios for Estonia were generated using a Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) and a regional climate change database-SCENanario GENerator (SCENGEN). Three alternative emission scenarios were combined with data from 14 general circulation model experiments. Climate change scenarios for the year 2100 indicate a significant increase in air temperature (by 2.3-4.5 degreesC) and precipitation (by 5-30%) in Estonia. The highest increase is expected to take place during winter and the lowest increase in summer. Due to a long coastline (3794 km) and extensive low-lying coastal areas| global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of valuable natural ecosystems will be in danger. These include both marine and terrestrial systems containing rare plant communities and suitable breeding places for birds. Most sandy beaches high in recreational value will disappear. However| isostatic land uplift and the location of coastal settlements at a distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk. Seven case study areas characterising all the shore types of Estonia have been selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Results and estimates of vulnerability to 1.0-m sea-level rise by 2100 are presented in this paper. This is the maximum scenario according to which the actually estimated relative sea-level rise would vary from 0.9 m (SW Estonia) to 0.7 m on the north-western coast due to different velocities of land uplift in the studied areas. The longest coastline section recession (6.4 km) would occur on the western coast of the mainland where extensive areas of reed bed and flooded meadows would relocate landwards or disappear. Possible damages in Tallinn| the capital city| would be the greatest compared to the other study areas. The greatest threat to the environment of the Gulf of Finland and the whole Baltic Sea is the dumping site of the former uranium enrichment plant in Sillamae which is situated very close to the coastline and can be easily influenced during storms. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved. 6128,2003,5,4,Climate during the Permian-Triassic biosphere reorganizations. Article 2. Climate of the Late Permian and Early Triassic: General inferences,The Late Permian-initial Triassic was a period of the Earth climate change| as the glacial climate of the Late Paleozoic was replaced by the non-glacial one of the Mesozoic. The intricate trend of this process is reconstructed and illustrated by schematic paleoclimatic maps. Warming in the second half of the Sakmarian Age resulted in a rapid degradation of huge glacial belt to the polar glacial cap. By the Kazanian Age| the latter was gradually replaced by the high-latitude temperate-cold belt with retained and new glacial centers that intermittently widened. In the Tatarian Age| a similar temperate-cold belt appeared in the Northern Hemisphere as well. The next strong and sudden global warming occurred in the Permian-Triassic boundary period when the temperate-warm climate developed in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and temperate one in the Southern Hemisphere. General warming complicated by frequent different-rank oscillations transformed the climatic zoning on the Earth and resulted in rapid global ecological changes. Huge dimensions of Pangea and mountainous belts and ridges at its margins primordially determined wide development of the semiarid and and climate in low latitudes. During the Late Permian-initial Triassic period| the aridity of the Earth was increasing that is evident from successive widening of and and semiarid belts of Pangea| which advanced toward middle latitudes| and from grown aridity in the equatorial mountainous belt and in tropical latitudes of the Tethys. Global warming was main factor responsible for stepwise widening of and and semiarid belts. Another cause of aridity increase was gradual regression of inner seas. Arid and semiarid belts occupied about 40% of land at the beginning of the Early Permian| 55% in the late Sakmarian-early Artinskian time| and 80% in the Induan Age. Paleoclimatic reconstructions confirm the assumed significance of monsoons impact on the climate development in the Permian and Early Triassic to a certain extent only. During glacial periods| the climatic asymmetry of the Earth was particularly remarkable. Registered environmental changes of the Permian time (regressions| aridity growth| land elevation| orogeny| and island-arc volcanism) could result only in cooling. Warming of terminal Permian-Early Triassic| as well as C| O| S| and Sr isotopic anomalies were probably the first results of the main Pfalzian phase of the Hercynian tectogenesis with associated weakening of suprasubduction volcanism| intense regional metamorphism| and denudation of carbonaceous sedimentary sequences of orogens. The subsequent outburst of mantle volcanism| in particular| trap eruptions in Siberia promoted these processes further. Depending on their scale| climatic changes prepared or even provoked biotic crises| the mass extinctions included. 6224,2003,4,4,Climate oscillations and changes over Russia,Refined definitions of a climate| climatic variables| climate variability| climate changes| and climate monitoring that are applicable to the analysis of climate variability from observations in the case of a changing climate are given. The main features of global warming| are described. New data are reported on the features of climate changes over Russia in the second half of the 20th century and on changes in climate anomaly and extremeness. Empirical estimates for the local sensitivity of air temperature to changes in the greenhouse gas concentration are discussed. The estimates can be used to assess the expected temperature changes in the comin- 20-25 years. 2827,2003,3,4,Climate policy in light of climate science: The ICLIPS project,The paper introduces the Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) as a decision analytical framework for addressing global climate change. It is implemented as an integrated assessment model (IAM) developed in the project on Integrated Assessment of Climate Protection Strategies (ICLIPS). The background and the main objectives of the project are described and its relationships to other current integrated assessment efforts are elucidated. Key features of the TWA are compared with those of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness frameworks. An overview of the ICLIPS IAM framework is provided together with its methodological foundations. Main features of the individual models are presented| covering the climate| the aggregated economic| and the impact models. Additional components of the framework include dynamic mitigation cost functions and an agriculture/land-use model (both incorporated into the fully integrated ICLIPS climate-economy model) as well as a global multi-region| multi-sector| dynamic general equilibrium model. 2826,2003,4,4,Climate system modeling in the framework of the tolerable windows approach: The ICLIPS climate model,The computational burden associated with applications of the Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) considerably exceeds that of traditional integrated assessments of global climate change. As part of the ICLIPS (Integrated Assessment of Climate Protection Strategies) project| a computationally efficient climate model has been developed that can be included in integrated assessment models of any kind. The ICLIPS climate model (ICM) is implemented in GAMS. It is driven by anthropogenic emissions of CO2| CH4| N2O| halocarbons| S(F)6| and SO2. The output includes transient patterns of near-surface air temperature| total column-integrated cloud cover fraction| precipitation| humidity| and global mean sea-level rise. The carbon cycle module explicitly treats the nonlinear sea water carbon chemistry and the nonlinear CO2 fertilized biosphere uptake. Patterns of the impact-relevant climate variables are derived form empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and scaled by the principal component of temperature change. The evolution of the latter is derived from a box-model-type differential analogue to its impulse response function convolution integral. We present a description of the ICM components and some results to demonstrate the model's applicability in the TWA setting. 6000,2003,2,4,Climate-related changes in recruitment of the bivalve Macoma balthica,Population dynamics of common intertidal bivalves (Cerastoderma edule| Macoma balthica| Mya arenaria| Mytilus edulis) are strongly related to seawater temperatures. In northwestern European estuaries| series of mild winters followed by low bivalve recruit densities lead to small adult stocks. In this study| we examine temperature-induced effects on reproductive output (eggs m(-2))| onset of spawning (day of the year)| and the juvenile instantaneous mortality rate (per day) of M. balthica. Data analysis was based on an extensive long-term data set (1973-2001) originating from the western Wadden Sea. Our results strongly suggest that rising seawater temperatures affect recruitment by a decrease in reproductive output and by spring advancement of bivalve spawning. Apparently| global warming upsets the evolved reproductive strategy of this marine bivalve to tune its reproduction to the most optimal environmental conditions for the first vulnerable life stages| most importantly the match/mismatch of time of spawning with that of the phytoplankton bloom and the settlement of juvenile shrimps on the tidal flats. It is hypothesized that the observed density-dependent mortality of juvenile bivalves may act via competition for food| a behavioral response of shrimp to low spat densities| or be the result of the response of age and size at metamorphosis of marine bivalves to resource variability. It is to be expected that prolonged periods of lowered bivalve recruitment and stocks will lead to a reformulation of estuarine food webs and possibly a reduction of the resilience of the system to additional disturbances| such as the depletion and disturbance by shellfish fisheries. 6243,2003,2,3,Climatic change and river ice breakup,The flow hydrograph| thickness of the winter ice cover| and stream morphology are three climate-influenced factors that govern river ice processes in general and ice. breakup and jamming in particular. Considerable warming and changes in precipitation patterns| as predicted by general circulation models (GCMs) for various increased greenhouse-gas scenarios| would affect the length and duration of the ice season and the timing and severity of ice breakup. Climate-induced changes to river ice processes and the associated hydrologic regimes can produce physical| biological| and socioeconomic effects. Current knowledge of climatic impacts on the ice breakup regime of rivers and the future effects of a changing climate are discussed. 6175,2003,2,4,Climatic factors and increased frequencies of 'southern' chromosome forms in natural populations of Drosophila robusta,New data are reported from two localities where historical changes in the relative frequencies of the gene arrangements of the woods fly| Drosophila robusta| had been documented earlier and from two localities that had last been sampled over 30 years ago. Several arrangements were found to have increased frequencies in all the localities studied. These arrangements are the ones with corresponding north-south clines| most also with corresponding relations to altitude. This. plus the fact that the similar changes have occurred in four states| one very far from the others| indicates that natural selection related to a pervasive climate effect| such as global warming| is responsible. Significant changes in another arrangement| one with no regular north-south or altitudinal variability| in some of the localities probably involve different ecological factors. 2815,2003,2,4,Climatic influences on riverine nitrate flux: Implications for coastal marine eutrophication and hypoxia,The average nitrate flux of the lower Mississippi River increased 3.3-fold between 1954-1967 and 1983-2000. During the same time period| the average nitrate concentration increased 2.3-fold while the average discharge increased 40%. Partitioning of the observed trend in nitrate flux among the two flux components| nitrate concentration and discharge| revealed that about 80% of the observed increase in flux could be explained by the increase in nitrate concentration. This indicates that a historical increase in the anthropogenic nutrient inputs has had a far greater impact on the lower Mississippi River nitrate flux than a change in climate. The influence of climatic factors on nitrate flux has been significant and may further increase as a result of global climate change. This argument is supported by two tines of evidence. The residual component of nitrate flux| obtained by removing a trend from the time series| is controlled primarily by the variability in discharge| i.e.| climatic factors. Also| there is a highly significant relationship between discharge and nitrate concentration at the low end of the discharge spectrum (< 13|000 m(3) s(-1)). The differences in nitrate flux between flood and drought years are significantly larger than the variations in discharge. This makes the Mississippi River nitrate flux potentially sensitive to future changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events. Because of the importance of nitrate for the productivity of coastal phytoplankton| future climate change would likely have important implications for coastal marine eutrophication and hypoxia. 6042,2003,2,4,Climatic warming and accompanying changes in the ecological regime of the Black Sea during 1990s,[1] The Black Sea ecosystem is shown to experience abrupt shifts in its all trophic levels from primary producers to apex predators in 1995 - 1996. It arises as a manifestation of concurrent changes in its physical climate introduced by intensive warming of its surface waters as well as abrupt increases in the mean sea level and the net annual mean fresh water flux. The warming is evident in the annual-mean sea surface temperature ( SST) data by a continuous rise at a rate of similar to0.25 degreesC per year| following a strong cooling phase in 1991 - 1993. The most intense warming event with similar to2 degreesC increase in the SST took place during winters of the 1994 - 1996 period. It also coincides with 4 cm yr(-1) net sea level rise in the basin| and substantial change in the annual mean net fresh water flux from 150 km(3) yr(-1) in 1993 to 420 km(3) yr(-1) in 1997. The subsurface signature of warming is marked by a gradual depletion of the Cold Intermediate Layer ( characterized by T < 8 &DEG;C) throughout the basin during the same period. Winters of the warming phase are characterized by weaker vertical turbulent mixing and upwelling velocity| stronger stratification and| subsequently| reduced upward nutrient supply from the nutricline. From 1996 onward| the major late winter-early spring peak of the classical annual phytoplankton biomass structure observed prior to mid- 90s was| therefore| either weakened or disappeared altogether depending on local meteorological and oceanographic conditions during each of these years. The effect of bottom-up limited unfavorable phytoplankton growth is reflected at higher trophic levels (e.g.| mesozooplankton| gelatinous macrozooplankton| and pelagic fishes) in the form of their reduced stocks after 1995. 6048,2003,3,3,CO2 mitigation technologies in the steel industry: a benchmarking study based on process calculations,Global warming presents an enormous challenge to the steel industry| which is both carbon-intensive and energy efficient. Lean production can provide some short-term emission mitigation| at the level of the Kyoto requirements. In the middle term| more use of scrap will also help alleviate emissions. But to reach much larger reductions in GHG emissions| on a par with the likely targets that will be set after the Kyoto period| the steel industry will have to imagine new production paradigms| which constitutes its most formidable challenge for the years to come. Carbon capture and sequestration| processes leaner in carbon use| electricity and hydrogen from green sources will have to be added together in a patchwork of process routes| which will have to be developed at great risk in the next decade| hopefully through broad international cooperation. 6320,2003,3,2,Coalbed methane extraction and utilization,Coalbed methane (CBM) is the generic name for all methane of coal seam origin. It is a natural gas formed by geological| or biological| processes in coal seams and generally consists predominantly of methane| but may also contain some higher alkanes and non-combustible gases. Methane is released whenever coal is de-stressed or fractured by mining. Methane is one of the main greenhouse gases contributing to global warming| therefore releasing it to atmosphere is an environmental hazard. However| it is also an important energy resource and can be recovered from operational coal mines| abandoned coal mines| and virgin (unmined) coal seams. Significant volumes of CBM are exploited worldwide for space heating| industrial processes| and power generation. This paper critically reviews the current UK and worldwide status of CBM extraction and utilization technologies building on a previous study funded through the Department of Trade and Industry's Cleaner Coal Technology Programme [1]. 2722,2003,5,4,Coherence resonance and ice ages,The processes and feedbacks responsible for the 100-kyr cycle of Late Pleistocene global climate change are still being debated. This paper presents a numerical model that integrates (1) long-wavelength outgoing radiation| (2) the ice-albedo feedback| and (3) lithospheric deflection within the simple conceptual framework of coherence resonance. Coherence resonance is a dynamical process that results in the amplification of internally generated variability at particular periods in a system with bistability and delay feedback. In the Late Pleistocene climate system| bistability results from a combination of long-wavelength outgoing radiation and the ice-albedo feedback. These processes are in equilibrium at interglacial and full-glacial conditions. Delay feedback results from the influence of lithospheric deflection on ice sheet advance and retreat. This process has commonly been represented in numerical climate models by complex models of ice sheet dynamics. As an alternative| the present model incorporates ice sheet dynamics implicitly by using the observed relationship between ice coverage and global temperature. The result is a simple| well-constrained model for the Late Pleistocene global climate system with only one free parameter. The model accurately reproduces the climate variability recorded in the Vostok ice core from timescales of several thousand to one million years| including the histograms and power-spectral behavior of the data. The 100-kyr cycle is a free oscillation in the model| present even in the absence of external forcing. The model also reproduces smaller-amplitude periodicities at odd harmonics of 100 kyr| suggesting that a significant portion of the spectral power at the Milankovitch bands of 41 and 29 kyr may be internally generated. Finally| the development of 100-kyr oscillations in the Mid-Pleistocene may be understood within this model framework as the transition from a climate with one stable state to a system with two stable states brought about by the development of large continental ice sheets and the addition of the ice-albedo feedback to the climate system. 6214,2003,2,4,Common themes in changing vector-borne disease scenarios,The impact of climate change on disease patterns is controversial. However| global burden of disease studies suggest that infectious diseases will contribute a proportionately smaller burden of disease over the next 2 decades as non-communicable diseases emerge as public health problems. However| infectious diseases contribute proportionately more in the poorest quintile of the population. Notwithstanding the different views of the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections this paper reviews the conditions which drive the changing epidemiology of these infections and suggests that such change is linked by common themes including interactions of generalist vectors and reservoir hosts at interfaces with humans| reduced biodiversity associated with anthropogenic environmental changes| increases in Plasmodium falciparum:P. vivax ratios and well-described land use changes such as hydrological| urbanization| agricultural| mining and forest-associated impacts (extractive activities| road building| deforestation and migration) which are seen on a global scale. 6207,2003,3,2,Comparative analysis between biomass and topographic features in an arid land| Western Australia,Global warming is a serious problem requiring immediate countermeasures. Large-scale afforestation in and areas for the aim of absorbing CO2 is considered to be one of these measures and the research activities for it have been carried out in Leonora| Western Australia. In this study| the relationship between the biomass distribution and topographic features was examined in order to collect basic information for the selection of suitable afforestation regions in the research area using a biomass distribution map and some topographic elements. The results were as follows. (1) Plant growth is related to the movement of and the volume of runoff water derived from inequality of the ground| which leads to a biased distribution of nutrient accumulation and of surface soil thickness. (2) The total potential biomass estimated from the present topography is greater than the present biomass in the 30 km x 50 km research area. A mass of 319 kt-C could be absorbed in the research area without any improvements in the landform. (3) A substantial improvement on the environment utilizing vast and areas by afforestation is necessary to fix enough carbon deterring global warming. 6041,2003,3,3,Comparison of CO2 fixation in wood used for residence houses in Japan and Korea,In this study| we have estimated the amount of carbon (C) fixation in wooden materials used for residence house units in Japan and Korea. This type of C fixation might be helpful to prevent the global warming. In year 2000| the amount of C fixation in the wooden materials was approximately 7.3% (150 million C ton) of total forest C accumulation in Japan| whereas in Korea| it was 2.0% (4.3 million C ton) of the total forest C accumulation. The reason is that structural types of the house units on wood utilization in Japan and Korea are clearly different. Japanese have used 90% of wooden materials for their residence houses but Korean house units have built mostly using non-wooden materials such as concrete| bricks| and stones. It has resulted that the number of total houses in Japan is 5 times higher than that in Korea| whereas the amount of C fixed by the wood materials in Japanese house units is 35 times higher than in Korean's. Therefore| to improve C fixation| it might be necessary to increase wooden residence houses and use of the wooden interior or exterior materials in the residence houses| especially in Korea. 6301,2003,3,3,Comparison of the environmental damage caused by vehicles with different alternative fuels and drivetrains in a Brussels context,A comprehensive methodology has been developed to compare the environmental damage caused by vehicles with different alternative fuels| such as CNG| LPG| etc.| and drivetrains| such as electric and hybrid drives. This paper describes how the environmental effect of vehicles should be defined and includes parameters concerning vehicle emissions and their influence on human well-being and the environment. It then describes how the environmental effect of vehicles could be defined| taking into account the availability of accurate and reliable data. Rating systems are analysed as a means of comparing the environmental effect of vehicles| allowing decision-makers to dedicate their financial and non-financial policies and measures as a function of the ecological damage. Different types of pollution (acid rain| photochemical air pollution| noise pollution| etc.) and their effect on numerous receptors such as ecosystems| buildings and human beings (e.g. cancer| respiratory diseases| etc.) and global warming are considered. The methodology described| known as Ecoscore| is based on a methodology similar to life cycle assessment (LCA) which considers the part played by emissions in certain types of damage (e.g. by using the exposure-response damage function). Total emissions involve oil extraction| transport and refinery. fuel distribution and electricity generation and distribution (well-to-wheel approach). Emissions due to the production| use and dismantling of the vehicle (cradle-to-grave approach) should also be considered. The different types of damage are normalized to make comparisons possible. Hence. a reference value (determined by a chosen reference vehicle) will be defined as a target value (the normalized value will thus measure a kind of distance to target). The contribution of the different normalized types of damage to a single value-Ecoscore-is based on a panel weighting method. This new approach differs from other methodologies in that it has been especially developed for the assessment of the environmental effect of vehicle emissions in an urban context| such as the Brussels Capital Region. Additionally| this methodology not only considers conventional vehicles but can also evaluate all alternative fuels and drivetrains with new vehicle technologies. Some examples of Ecoscore calculation are illustrated. 2757,2003,4,4,Complex methodological approach to the studies of natural microlayers at the air/water interface,The investigations of sea-surface microlayers are crucial for better understanding of the mechanisms and physicochemical processes at natural phase boundaries which play an important role in the marine environmental protection and global climate change. Sea-surface microlayers were studied in an original sample without any pretreatment and as ex-situ reconstructed films after previous extraction of the sample by organic solvents of different polarity. For physicochemical characterization of natural and ex-situ reconstructed sea-surface microlayer samples a complex methodological approach was applied. Monolayer techniques| Brewster angle microscopy| reflection spectroscopy and electrochemical methods were used. Samples were collected from a Middle Adriatic eutrophicated sea-lake. Results were compared and discussed with respect to previously reported results obtained by analysing the samples from the same area and from the Northern Adriatic. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6036,2003,2,4,Composition| temporal changes and ecological guild classification of the ichthyofaunas of large European estuaries - a comparison between the Tagus (Portugal) and the Elbe (Germany),Fish species densities from 1025 hauls obtained with beam trawl and stow net catches from the southern Tagus and northern Elbe estuaries were analysed for two different periods of time between 1978 and 1997. The data were related with environmental factors to compare species composition and densities| contributions of different ecological guilds| structuring environmental key factors| intra-annual cyclicity and interperiodical stability of ichthyofaunas in large European estuaries at different latitudes. Although the total number of species in both the Tagus and Elbe estuaries ( Tagus: 57 species| Elbe: 58 species) was very similar| significant differences were estimated in species compositions| species densities and number of species| and individuals of the different ecological guilds between both estuaries. A total of 15 species occurred in both estuaries but only two of these species| the catadromous Anguilla anguilla and the marine estuarine opportunist Pleuronectes flesus| contributed substantially to the total abundance. Marine species together contributed more than 5% of the total number of species in the Tagus and Elbe estuaries| whereas their contribution in number of individuals amounted to 22% in the Tagus and only 9% in the Elbe. In terms of number of individuals| the ichthyofauna of the Tagus estuary was dominated by estuarine species ( especially Pomatoschistus spp.) contributing 68% of the total abundance. In contrast| the fish fauna of the Elbe estuary was dominated by high numbers of anadromous species (88%) individuals| especially Osmerus eperlanus. Canonical corresponding analyses (CCA) indicated that| besides intra-annual variables| salinity and mouth distance were two of the most important environmental factors structuring the fish communities in both estuaries. Moreover| water depth was found to be an important environmental factor in the Tagus estuary| whereas the water temperature substantially affected the ichthyofaunal composition in the Elbe estuary. In both estuaries| contributions by number of species and number of individuals of the different ecological guilds were not statistically different between the two periods considered| 1978 - 80 and 1995 - 97 for the Tagus| and 1981 - 86 and 1989 - 95 for the Elbe. Nevertheless| from 1981 - 86 until 1989 - 95 a remarkable increase of about 4.5 times in the densities of O. eperlanus was observed in the Elbe estuary| probably related to improved water quality| especially of oxygen conditions in the nurseries since 1990. This was also supported by the results of CCA| suggesting important influences of the years 1989 and 1990 on the Elbe estuary fish assemblage. Climate change as a result of global warming may be evident for the observed changes of the densities of P. flesus which decreased in the southern Tagus estuary and| in contrast| increased in the northern Elbe estuary during comparable periods of time. It is recommended to use the ecological guild classification scheme which was applied for the Tagus and Elbe estuaries for further studies of European estuarine fish assemblages. 2835,2003,2,4,Consequences of climate-induced salinity increases on zooplankton abundance and diversity in coastal lakes,Intermittent saline intrusions are a common feature of many coastal lakes and wetlands. These ecosystems are often important sites of biodiversity| biological productivity| and ecosystem services such as the removal of sediment| nutrients| and contaminants from inflowing rivers. Predicted effects of global climate change| including sea level rise| are likely to intensify saline intrusions into such ecosystems. Analyses of taxonomic diversity and abundance of zooplankton at different salinities in Lake Waihola| South Island| New Zealand| are supported by results of laboratory studies of salinity tolerances of 3 crustacean taxa Gladioferens pectinatus| Boeckella hamata and Daphnia carinata obtained from the lake. The field and laboratory analyses show that severe perturbations of zooplankton community structure and abundance are caused by even minor saline intrusions into Lake Waihola that raise the salinity to >1.2 psu. Our analyses of Lake Waihola| and data from brackish ecosystems around the world| show that even relatively small increases in salinity levels can drive such systems to a state of depleted biodiversity and abundance| altering ecosystem functioning. 2839,2003,2,4,Consequences of manipulations in carbon and nitrogen supply for concentration of anti-herbivore defence compounds in Salix polaris,The concentration of carbon-based anti-herbivore defence compounds is key to herbivore utilization of forage. Production of phenolics and condensed tannins in boreal woody plants is known to reduce grazing pressure. Their production depends| among other things| on the availability of nutrient resources| especially nitrogen| relative to the availability of assimilates. The carbon-nutrient balance (CNB) hypothesis (Bryant| Chapin & Klein| 1983) predicts a decrease in the concentration of carbon-based defence compounds with increased availability of nutrients. In a High Arctic heath| I manipulated the carbon-nitrogen balance of polar willow (Salix polaris) in a factorial| multi-level fertilizing and shading experiment. Other plots were subject to elevated temperature. After 2 years| shading and| to a lesser extent| fertilization had caused an increase in nitrogen concentrations in the leaves| which were highly and negatively correlated with lower total phenolic and condensed tannin concentrations. Elevated temperature caused no such effects| but increased growth significantly| while shading reduced shoot biomass| and fertilization had no detectable effect. These results are consistent with the CNB hypothesis. On the basis of this study it seems unlikely| however| that environmental modifications due to global climate change will have a major impact on defence chemistry| as very high shading (>70%) and fertilization levels (>1.5 g m(-2) year(-1)) were needed to produce significant deviations from controls. 2838,2003,2,2,Conservation impact of climatic variability on pollination of the federally endangered plant| Clematis socialis (Ranunculaceae),Biotic pollination should be an important consideration when devising management plans for endangered plant species. In this study we documented inter-annual shifts in the suite of floral visitors to Clematis socialis| a federally endangered species. These pollinator shifts were correlated with shifts in climatic variables that we used as a proxy for the potential effects of climatic change. In addition| we characterized floral visitor behavior and conducted single-visit seed set experiments to assess the pollination effectiveness of floral visitors. Five insect species visited flowers of C. socialis: two lepidopteran species (Erynnis juvenalis and Hemaris diffinis) and three bee species (Anthophora ursina| Bombus pennsylvanicus and Xylocopa virginica). Due to their relatively greater frequency of flower visitation and high single-visit seed set (ca. 2.6-3 seeds/visit)| two bee species (Anthophora ursina and Bombus pennsylvanicus) are considered to be the major pollinators of C. socialis. However| the relative importance of each pollinator species varied between years. Anthophora ursina was the most important pollinator in 1997| a year when C. socialis bloomed later in the spring. Queens of Boinbus pennsylvanicus were the primary pollinator during 1996| a year when C. socialis bloomed relatively early in the spring. We conclude that management plans that focus on the "best pollinator" of a suite of pollinators may not preserve the long-term reproductive integrity of endangered plants with generalized pollination systems. We further conclude that asynchrony between flowering season and pollinator activity patterns may be a risk factor associated with human-caused global climate change. 6209,2003,3,2,Control of anthropogenic CH4 and N2O emissions from several industrial sources and from daily human life,Recently| the control of non-CO2 greenhouse gases has attracted interest as a way to prevent global warming. Several research studies on the development and assessment of technologies to control CH4 and N2O emissions by human activities are under way. In the wastewater treatment field| the development of anoxic/oxic processes and the introduction of bacteria that effectively prevent N2O emission have been studied. Moreover| it has been clarified that eco engineering technologies such as artificial wetlands and soil trench systems are very effective| especially in developing countries. As for landfill disposal| CH4 oxidation by cover soil and the use of CH4 gas as a source of energy have very effectively reduced the emission of CH4. In the combustion field| it was clarified that N2O emissions vary according to the structure of each combustor and its operational conditions. And research and development concerning combustors and their optimum operational conditions are under way. Concerning automobile sources| characteristics of N2O emission from gasoline fueled vehicles installed with a catalyst were examined. Three way catalysts and so on are now being developed. Chemical industries| especially adipic acid production are another non-negligible N2O source| and cracking process related countermeasures have been applied. CH4 and N2O emissions from agricultural land are strongly dependent on the oxidation-reduction environment of soil and on fertilization| so they must be suitably managed. The development and management of ruminants feeding and suitable treatment of animal waste are very important ways to control CH4 and N2O from livestock. Research projects to improve the CH4 and N2O emission-absorption inventory| and to estimate the suitable technologies to control CH4 and N2O emission are now in progress. Combining these projects appropriately will develop technologies and systems and will make great contributions to the control of the emission of GHGs and to global warming. 2721,2003,2,4,Control of behavioural strategies for capricious environments,In addition to seasonal changes in morphology| physiology and behaviour that occur in predictable annual cycles| there are facultative responses to unpredictable events known as labile (i.e. short-lived) perturbation factors. These rapid behavioural and physiological changes have been termed the 'emergency life-history stage' and serve to enhance lifetime fitness. There are four major components: (1) proactive/reactive coping styles for responding to psychosocial stress| predation| and so forth; (2) fight-or-flight responses to rapid emergencies such as an attack by a predator or sudden severe storm; (3) 'take-it-or-leave-it' behavioural and physiological responses to longer-term perturbations of the physical environment; and (4) sickness behaviour and fever designed to respond to infection. Glucocorticosteroids interact with cytokines and with other hormones in the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal cascade and in the autonomic nervous system to initiate and orchestrate the emergency life-history stage within minutes to hours. Some traits of the emergency life-history stage include: redirection of behaviour from a normal life-history stage to increased foraging| irruptive-type migration during the day| enhanced restfulness at night| elevated gluconeogenesis| and recovery once the perturbation passes. These physiological and behavioural changes allow an individual to avoid potential deleterious effects of stress that may result from chronically elevated levels of circulating glucocorticosteroids over days and weeks. Thus| acute rises in glucocorticosteroids following perturbations of the environment may serve primarily as 'antistress' hormones| potentially allowing individuals to avoid chronic stress. Several field studies in diverse habitats indicate that individuals in free-living populations show elevated circulating levels of corticosteroids when they are in an emergency life-history stage. Some simple models based on food availability| body condition| social status and life-history stage| may allow predictions of sensitivity of the hypothalamopituitary-adrenal axis to labile perturbation factors. Although there is now extensive evidence for behavioural components of the emergency life-history stage in birds| there remains much to be learned about how other vertebrate groups| especially fish| cope with perturbations of the environment. Because of the unpredictable nature of these perturbations| systematic study of behavioural responses to them is not possible and investigators need to be 'opportunistic'. There is also a growing need to expand our knowledge of these phenomena because human disturbance| global climate change and pollution are all major perturbations of the environment. How vertebrates respond to the unpredictable in general will thus have important conservation value for the future. (C) 2003 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6298,2003,4,3,Conversion of the nitrate nitrogen and nitrogen dioxide to nitrous oxides in plants,Tobacco and wheat are known to emit nitrous oxide (N2O). Provided that N2O is a greenhouse gas about 300 times worse than carbon dioxide in its potential for global warming| it is an intriguing and important subject| whether this activity is commonly present in other plants. In this study| 17 plant taxa that had been cultured aseptically were fed with N-15-labelled nitrate for one week (feeding period). The plant taxa were then transferred to a medium with non-labelled nitrate in gas-sealed pots and cultured for another week (emission period). The amount of labelled N2O emitted from the plants during the emission period was determined. This value reflects only a part of the capability of plants to convert nitrate to N2O| because the amount of N2O determined here does not correspond to the total N2O emission from plants| but to only an N-15-labelled N2O fraction emitted during the emission period from nitrate taken up into the plants during the feeding period. It was discovered that all of the 17 plant taxa analysed| except for Eucalyptus viminalis| showed emission of (N2O)-N-15. The emission ranged from 0.45 +/- 0.20 ng N2O/g fresh weight (kenaf) to -0.012 +/- 0.12 ng N2O/g fresh weight (Eucalyptus viminalis). This activity of converting nitrate to N2O is obviously common in plants with some exceptions. There was more than a 58-fold variation between the highest (Hibiscus cannabinus) and the second lowest (Nicotiana tabacum) capability to convert nitrate to N2O among the 17 plant taxa. The present result indicates that the potential of plants to convert nitrate to N2O highly varies among the plant species as in the case of the assimilation of nitrogen dioxide (N2O) where more than a 600-fold variation was observed among 217 plant taxa. A negative correlation was obtained for N2O emission and NO2 assimilation (r = 0.72). This is the first report where there was a competitive interaction between the assimilation and dissimilation activities in plants. It was also found that wild type and transgenic tobacco are able to convert NO2 to N2O when they were fumigated with N-15-labelled NO2. However since the N2O emission values observed in this study were approximately three orders of magnitude smaller than those observed with wheat leaves| the evaluation of the environmental significance of the N2O emission by plants must await quantitative analysis using the present system to figure out the full N2O emission capability of plants. 6174,2003,2,4,Coral delta O-18 records as an indicator of winter monsoon intensity in the South China Sea,We have used correlative analysis between mean December-January-February winter wind velocities| measured at the Xisha Meteorological Observatory (16degrees50'N| 112degrees20'E) in the middle of the South China Sea| and mean 518 0 data for the corresponding month from Porites lutea coral| collected in Longwan waters (19degrees20'N| 110degrees39'E)| to obtain a linear equation relating the two datasets. This winter wind velocity for the South China Sea (WMIIscs) can then be correlated to the coral delta(18)O by the equation WMIIscs = -1.213-1.351 delta(18)O (parts per thousand PDB)| r = -0.60| n = 40| P = 0.01. From this| the calculated WMIIscs-delta18O series from 1944 to 1997 tends to decrease during the 1940s to the 1960s; it increases slightly during the 1970s and then decreases again in the 1980s and 1990s. The calculated decadal mean WMIIscs-delta18O series had a obvious decrease from 5.92 to 4.63 m/s during the period of 1944-1997. The calculated yearly mean WMIIscs-delta18O value is 5.58 m/s from 1944 to 1976 and this decreases to 4.85 m/s from 1977 to 1998. That is the opposite trend to the observed yearly mean SST variation. The yearly mean SST anomaly is -0.27degrees from 1943 to 1976 and this increases to +0.16degrees from 1977 to 1998. Spectral analysis used on a 54-year-long calculated WMIIscs-delta18O series produces spectral peaks at 2.4-7 yr| which can be closely correlated with the quasibiennial oscillation band (QBO band| 2-2.4 yr) and the El Nino southern oscillation band (ENSO band| 3-8 yr). Hence most of the variability of the winter monsoon intensity in the middle of the South China Sea is mainly constrained by changes in the thermal difference between the land and the adjoining sea area| perhaps due to global warming. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved. 6006,2003,4,4,Correcting the orbit drift effect on AVHRR land surface skin temperature measurements,The orbital drift of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-7| -9| -11| -14 series of satellites results in a significant cooling effect on their afternoon path Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) land surface skin temperature (T-s) measurements. This effect mixes with the signal of true variations in the climate system| and thus prevents T-s from being directly used in climate change and global warming studies. This paper applies a physically based 'typical pattern technique' to remove the orbit drift effect from T-s. The technique utilizes a lookup table of representative land skin temperature diurnal cycles derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate Community Model (CCM3) coupled with the land surface model| Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The generated typical patterns of T-s diurnal cycle are functions of vegetation type| season and latitude| and are combined with satellite observations to remove the cooling effect. Applying this methodology to eighteen years of AVHRR ( 1981-1998) T-s observations yields an improved skin temperature dataset. Analysis of the drift-corrected skin temperature illustrates a warming trend at the surface over the past two decades| a result which agrees well with the observed surface air temperature trend. A discussion of uncertainties in this technique is also presented. 6189,2003,2,4,Decline of North Atlantic eels: a fatal synergy?,Panmictic species pose particular problems for conservation because their welfare can be addressed effectively only on a global scale. We recently documented by means of microsatellite analysis that the European eel (Anguilla anguilla) is not panmictic but instead shows genetic isolation by distance. In this study| we extended the analysis to the American eel (A. rostrata) by applying identical analytical procedures and statistical power. Results obtained for the American eel were in sharp contrast with those obtained for the European eel: the null hypothesis of panmixia could not be rejected| and no isolation by distance was detected. This implies that the species must be managed as a single population. Using Bayesian statistics| we also found that the effective population sizes for both species were surprisingly low and that the populations had undergone severe contractions| most probably during the Wisconsinan glaciation. The apparent sensitivity of eels to climatic changes affecting the strength and position of the Gulf Stream 20 000 years ago is particularly worrying| given the effects of the ongoing global warming on the North Atlantic climate. Moreover| additional short-term stresses such as surging glass eel prizes| overfishing and lethal parasitic infections negatively affect eel population size. The fascinating transatlantic migration and life cycle of Atlantic eels is also their Achilles' heel as these negative short- and long-term effects will probably culminate in a fatal synergy if drastic conservation measures are not implemented to protect these international biological resources. 6253,2003,3,4,Decomposition of environmentally persistent trifluoroacetic acid to fluoride ions by a homogeneous photocatalyst in water,Decomposition of trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) was achieved with a tungstic heteropolyacid photocatalyst H3PW12O40. 6H(2)O in order to develop a technique for measures against TFA stationary sources. This is the first example of C-F bond cleavage in an environmentally harmful perfluoromethyl-group-containing compound using a homogeneous photocatalyst. The catalytic reaction proceeds in water at room temperature under UV-visible light irradiation in the presence of oxygen. The system produces only F- ions and CO2; the (mole of formed F-)/(mole of decomposed TFA) and (mole of formed CO2)/(mole of decomposed TFA) ratios were 2.91 and 2.09| respectively. GC/MS measurements showed no trace of other species such as environmentally undesirable CF4| which is the most stable perfluorocarbon and has a very high global warming potential. When the (initial T)/(initial catalyst) molar ratio was 20:1| the turnover number of TFA decomposition reached 5.58 by 72 h of irradiation| accompanying with no catalyst degradation. The catalytic reaction mechanism can be explained by a redox reaction between the catalyst and TFA| involving a photo-Kolbe process. 6091,2003,3,3,Deforestation control in Mato Grosso: A new model for slowing the loss of Brazil's Amazon Forest,Controlling deforestation in Brazil's Amazon region has long been illusive despite repeated efforts of government authorities to slow the process. From 1997 to 2000| deforestation rates in Brazil's 9-state "Legal Amazon" region continually crept upward. Now| a licensing and enforcement program for clearing by large farmers and ranchers in the state of Mato Grosso appears to be having an effect. The deforestation rate in Mato Grosso was already beginning to slacken before initiation of the program in 1999| but examination of county-level data suggests that deforestation in already heavily cleared areas was falling due to lack of suitable uncleared land| while little-cleared areas were experiencing rapid deforestation. Following initiation of the program| the clearing rates declined in the recent frontiers. Areas with greater enforcement effort also appear to have experienced greater declines. Demonstration of government ability to enforce regulations and influence trends is important to domestic and international debates regarding use of avoided deforestation to mitigate global warming. 6122,2003,2,4,Detection of environmental change in a marine ecosystem - evidence from the western English Channel,To separate human-induced changes from natural fluctuations in marine life requires long-term research. The western English Channel has been investigated from Plymouth for over 100 years. The abundance of marine life has been recorded and related to physical changes in the environment. By comparing different parts of the ecosystem we can demonstrate historic natural fluctuations| allowing prediction of effects of future global change. From the 1920s to the 1950s there was a period of warming of the sea| with increases in abundance of species of fish| plankton and intertidal organisms that are typically common in warmer waters to the south of Britain. After 1962 the sea cooled down and northern cold-water species became more abundant. Since the 1980s regional sea surface temperature has increased again and warm-water species are once more becoming abundant. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6212,2003,2,2,Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure,Greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulphate aerosols-the main human influences on climate-have been shown to have had a detectable effect on surface air temperature(1-3)| the temperature of the free troposphere and stratosphere(2|4) and ocean temperature(5|6) Nevertheless| the question remains as to whether human influence is detectable in any variable other than temperature. Here we detect an influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in observations of winter sea-level pressure (December to February)| using combined simulations from four climate models. We find increases in sea-level pressure over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean| southern Europe and North Africa| and decreases in the polar regions and the North Pacific Ocean| in response to human influence. Our analysis also indicates that the climate models substantially underestimate the magnitude of the sea-level pressure response. This discrepancy suggests that the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index(7) (corresponding to strengthened westerlies in the North Atlantic region)| as simulated in a number of global warming scenarios(8-10)| may be too small| leading to an underestimation of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on European climate. 6249,2003,2,4,Detection of intensification in global- and continental-scale hydrological cycles: Temporal scale of evaluation,Diagnostic studies of offline| global-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model simulations of terrestrial water budgets and simulations of the climate of the twenty-first century using the parallel climate model (PCM) are used to estimate the time required to detect plausible changes in precipitation (P)| evaporation (E)| and discharge (Q) if the global water cycle intensifies in response to global warming. Given the annual variability in these continental hydrological cycle components| several decades to perhaps more than a century of observations are needed to detect water cycle changes on the order of magnitude predicted by many global climate model studies simulating global warming scenarios. Global increases in precipitation| evaporation| and runoff of 0.6| 0.4| and 0.2 mm yr(-1) require approximately 30-45| 25-35| and 50-60 yr| respectively| to detect with high confidence. These conservative detection time estimates are based on statistical error criteria (alpha = 0.05| beta = 0.10) that are associated with high statistical confidence| 1 - alpha (accept hypothesis of intensification when true| i.e.| intensification is occurring)| and high statistical power| 1 - beta (reject hypothesis of intensification when false| i.e.| intensification is not occurring). If one is willing to accept a higher degree of risk in making a statistical error| the detection time estimates can be reduced substantially. Owing in part to greater variability| detection time of changes in continental P| E| and Q are longer than those for the globe. Similar calculations performed for three Global Energy and Water Experiment (GEWEX) basins reveal that minimum detection time for some of these basins may be longer than that for the corresponding continent as a whole| thereby calling into question the appropriateness of using continental-scale basins alone for rapid detection of changes in continental water cycles. A case is made for implementing networks of small-scale indicator basins| which collectively mimic the variability in continental P| E| and Q| to detect acceleration in the global water cycle. 2741,2003,2,4,Detection of large-scale climate signals in spring vegetation index (normalized difference vegetation index) over the Northern Hemisphere,Climate is one of the determinants driving ecosystems on both local and global scales. During the last two decades| there has occurred a dramatic temperature increase in the northern midlatitudes to high latitudes. The rapid warming has resulted in the promotion of bioactivity and an early growing season. However| the temperature and vegetation changes are not uniform in geographical distribution. In the present study| we analyze the spatial features in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-temperature relationship over Eurasia and North America in spring for the period 1982-2000. The NDVI data are derived from the Earth Observing System Pathfinder advanced very high resolution radiometer data sets. A singular value decomposition analysis is applied to the covariance matrix of the NDVI and temperature. Most of the squared covariance| 91.6%| is captured by the first seven paired modes. The result clearly indicates that the temperature is a focal factor influencing vegetation activity. Furthermore| those seven paired modes show large-scale features and well-defined patterns. The atmospheric circulation systems| such as the Southern Oscillation| North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation| Pacific/North American pattern| Eurasian pattern| western Pacific pattern| western Atlantic pattern| eastern Atlantic pattern| and North Pacific index| are found to be associated with that. The time coefficient corresponding to the first paired modes| centered on western Siberia| is correlated significantly with the Eurasian teleconnection pattern. Their correlation coefficients are 0.72 and 0.78 for vegetation and temperature| respectively| for the data period. Other modes are also correlated with one or more circulation indices. This implies that the large-scale circulation is essential for understanding the regional response of vegetation to global climate change. Taking all nine circulation indices and time lags into account| a large portion (71%) of the satellite-sensed variance in NDVI could be explained. The temperature-NDVI relationships did not change significantly when the NDVI was rescaled from 1 to 5 degrees| indicating that the singular value decomposition analysis is an appropriate technique for detecting the degree of coupling between vegetation and climate and that the vegetation-temperature relationship presented in this study is robust. 2739,2003,2,4,Development of gypsy moth larvae feeding on red maple saplings at elevated CO2 and temperature,Predicted increases in atmospheric CO2 and global mean temperature may alter important plant-insect associations due to the direct effects of temperature on insect development and the indirect effects of elevated temperature and CO2 enrichment on phytochemicals important for insect success. We investigated the effects of CO2 and temperature on the interaction between gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) larvae and red maple (Acer rubrum L.) saplings by bagging first instar larvae within open-top chambers at four CO2/temperature treatments: (1) ambient temperature| ambient CO2| (2) ambient temperature| elevated CO2 (+300 mul l(-1) CO2)| (3) elevated temperature (+3.5degreesC)| ambient CO2| and (4) elevated temperature| elevated CO2. Larvae were reared to pupation and leaf samples taken biweekly to determine levels of total N| water| non-structural carbohydrates| and an estimate of defensive phenolic compounds in three age classes of foliage: (1) immature| (2) mid-mature and (3) mature. Elevated growth temperature marginally reduced (P <0.1) leaf N and significantly reduced (P <0.05) leaf water across CO2 treatments in mature leaves| whereas leaves grown at elevated CO2 concentration had a significant decrease in leaf N and a significant increase in the ratio of starch:N and total non-structural carbohydrates:N. Leaf N and water decreased and starch:N and total non-structural carbohydrates:N ratios increased as leaves aged. Phenolics were unaffected by CO2 or temperature treatment. There were no interactive effects of CO2 and temperature on any phytochemical measure. Gypsy moth larvae reached pupation earlier at the elevated temperature (female =8 days| P <0.07; male =7.5 days| P <0.03)| whereas mortality and pupal fresh weight of insects were unrelated to either CO2| temperature or their interaction. Our data show that CO2 or temperature-induced alterations in leaf constituents had no effect on insect performance; instead| the long-term exposure to a 3.5degreesC increase in temperature shortened insect development but had no effect on pupal weight. It appears that in some tree-herbivorous insect systems the direct effects of an increased global mean temperature may have greater consequences for altering plant-insect interactions than the indirect effects of an increased temperature or CO2 concentration on leaf constituents. 5969,2003,3,4,Development of local area wind prediction system for selecting suitable site for windmill,Nowadays| environmental concerns on the causes of global warming have led to many countries to introduce renewable energy technologies like wind power. An appropriate selection of a suitable land for wind power plants can provide significant output of energy. The final goal of this study is to develop a numerical prediction model| based on computational wind engineering| as accurate as possible to predict wind energy distribution of a local area. It aims to develop a "local area wind energy prediction system" (hereafter LAWEPS). The works involved in this project are divided into three phases. In the initial phase of the study| a multi-step wind simulation with nesting method was designed. In the second phase of the work| each sub-model was coded and evaluated. Data of observation and experiment are obtained in parallel and used for verification with computation. At the present stage of the final phase of the project| the performance of the entire simulation system| LAWEPS| is tested and examined by comparing its results with measured data. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for meteorological phenomena and building scale phenomena are developed within LAWEPS for large and small areas| respectively. Results obtained from LAWEPS are promising and stimulating. This paper reports on the current status of this project and highlights on the achievements obtained within this study so far. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 5983,2003,3,3,Dicyandiamide and 3|4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate decrease N2O emissions from grassland but dicyandiamide produces deleterious effects in clover,The application of nitrogen fertilisers leads to different ecological problems such as nitrate leaching and the release of nitrogenous gases. N2O is a gas involved in global warming| therefore| agricultural soils can be regarded as a source of global warming. Soil N2O production comes from both the nitrification and denitrification processes. From an ecological viewpoint| using nitrification inhibitors with ammonium based fertilisers may be a potential management strategy to lower the fluxes of N2O| thus decreasing its undesirable effect. In this study| the nitrification inhibitors (NIs) dicyandiamide (DCD) and 3|4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate (DMPP) have been evaluated as management tools to mitigate N2O emissions from mineral fertilisation and slurry application in grassland systems (experiments 1 and 2)| and to assess the phytotoxic effect of these inhibitors per se on clover (experiment 3)| Both nitrification inhibitors acted in maintaining soil nitrogen (N) in ammonium form| decreasing cumulative N2O emissions. DCD| but not DMPP| produced phytotoxic effects and yield reduction in white clover. A nutrient imbalance| which led to a senescence process visually observed as chlorosis and necrosis at the border of the leaves| was noted. 6321,2003,3,3,Dispersion of flue gases from power plants in Brunei Darussalam,A series of mathematical and computer models describing alternative methods for the disposal of flue gases emitted from coal and gas fired power plants is discussed. Brunei Darussalam has three gas-fired power plants using approximately 3.106 m(3)/day gas and emitting substantial flue gases into the atmosphere. After desulphurisation with sea water| carbon-dioxide| the gas primarily associated with global warming and the main constituent of flue gas| can be dissolved under pressure in seawater and injected into the sea at suitable depth. The injected solution constitutes a negatively buoyant plume in the sea| carried by currents to deeper regions. It has been noted that the solution mixes and reacts with other oceanic components and converts to carbonates and sulphates that can remain near the bottom for several hundreds of years. Until a better alternative is developed| this may be an immediate solution to the problem of dealing with flue gases. The feasibility and economics of this alternative have been discussed in the literature. For optimal design criteria for such disposal| numerous parameters (such as location| pipe diameter| type of diffuser| angles of discharge| etc.) are involved in the mathematical analysis. Many alternative sets of these parameters must be used as input parameters to arrive at final design parameters for optimal results. 6319,2003,3,3,Dissolution behavior of a CO2 droplet at the CO2 sequestration into mid-depth sea,Sequestration of liquid CO2 in intermediate depth ocean has been considered as a means to reduce atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gas and to mitigate global warming. The dissolution behavior of CO2 in pure/sea water was investigated under the conditions of the intermediate depth ocean| i.e.| high pressure and low temperature conditions. In these conditions| CO2 clathrate hydrate film was formed at the interface between CO2 and water. The solubility of CO2 was derived by measuring the shrinking rates of the diameter of CO2 droplet. The solubility was investigated qualitatively with changing pressure| salinity and temperature. It was clarified that the solubility increased with the increase of pressure and salinity. The hydrate film| which was formed at low temperature condition| much affected the solubility. The authors applied a laser induced fluorescence (LIF) technique for the measurement of pH distribution around a CO2 droplet dissolving into pure water with or without the hydrate film. CO2 solution emitted intense fluorescence dependently on its pH. The visualized images of pH distribution| CO2 concentration around the dissolving CO2 droplet was calculated. 6063,2003,2,4,Disturbance| life history| and optimal management for biodiversity,Both frequency and intensity of disturbances in many ecosystems have been greatly enhanced by increasing human activities. As a consequence| the short-lived plant species including many exotics might have been dramatically increased in terms of both richness and abundance on our planet| while many long-lived species might have been lost. Such conclusions can be drawn from broadly observed successional cycles in both theoretical and empirical studies. This article discusses 2 major issues that have been largely overlooked in current ecosystem management policies and conservation efforts: i) life history constraints; and ii) future global warming trends. It also addresses the importance of these 2 factors in balancing disturbance frequency and intensity for optimal biodiversity maintenance and ecosystem management.
5984,2003,4,1,Do models underestimate the solar contribution to recent climate change?,Current attribution analyses that seek to determine the relative contributions of different forcing agents to observed near-surface temperature changes underestimate the importance of weak signals| such as that due to changes in solar irradiance. Here a new attribution method is applied that does not have a systematic bias against weak signals. It is found that current climate models underestimate the observed climate response to solar forcing over the twentieth century as a whole| indicating that the climate system has a greater sensitivity to solar forcing than do models. The results from this research show that increases in solar irradiance are likely to have had a greater influence on global-mean temperatures in the first half of the twentieth century than the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic forcings. Nevertheless the results confirm previous analyses showing that greenhouse gas increases explain most of the global warming observed in the second half of the twentieth century. 6087,2003,4,4,Drifts induced by multiplicative red noise with application to climate,It is well known that moment equations for a multivariate linear system with multiplicative red noise are not closed: equations for low-order moments involve higher-order moments. Further| the probability density for this system is complicated enough that analytic expressions for the moments are difficult to obtain by direct integration. We introduce a closure approximation so that the vector mean of such systems may be estimated with high accuracy. The approximation is accurate for red noises with a wide range of timescales| and approaches the correct limits for both very small and very large correlation times. We include an application relevant to climate modeling and comment on the implications for numerical-model investigations of global warming. 2789,2003,2,4,Dryness increases predation risk in efts: support for an amphibian decline hypothesis,One hypothesis for amphibian declines is that increased dryness attributed to global climate change exposes amphibians to greater biotic threat and| consequently| greater mortality. But| little is known about behavioral responses of terrestrial amphibians to dry conditions alone or in combination with biotic threats. We used field observations and laboratory experiments to test the response of efts (terrestrial juveniles) of the eastern red-spotted newt| Notophthalmus viridescens| to separate and combined desiccation and predation risks. When only at risk of desiccation| efts moved into shade| traveled down slope| decreased activity| and adopted water-conserving postures. Efts also significantly reduced the rate of water loss by huddling and were attracted to chemical cues from conspecific efts but not from conspecific adults. Thus| efts have a variety of behaviors that reduce the risk of dehydration associated with climate change. When faced only with a predation risk| represented by adult and eft newt tissue extracts (alarm chemicals)| efts reduced their activity and avoided alarm cues from both sources. When exposed to combined desiccation and predation risks| efts were less active than when exposed to either risk separately and avoided adult tissue extracts| but not eft extracts. These results suggest that under dry conditions| conspecific tissue extracts contain both attractive (huddling) and repulsive (predator-related) chemical components that induce offsetting behavioral responses. This is the first study to demonstrate moisture-dependent responses to conspecific rinses and alarm substances| underscoring the importance of considering environmental moisture and animal hydration in studies examining responses to conspecific odors and/or alarm chemicals. These results support the hypothesis that elevated dehydration risk may compromise anti-predator behavior and exacerbate amphibian population declines. 6185,2003,4,5,Dynamics of global climatic changes and possibility of their prediction using chemical data from Greenland Ice,Records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two ice core are considered in terms of dynamical systems theory and nonlinear prediction. Dynamical systems theory allows us to reconstruct some properties of a phenomenon based only on past behavior without any mechanistic assumptions or deterministic models. A near-term prediction of temperature| including a mean estimate and confidence interval| is made for 800 years into the future. The prediction suggests that the present short-time global warming trend will continue for at least 200 years and be followed by a reverse in the temperature trend. 6066,2003,3,3,Economics of wastelands afforestation in India| a review,India has vast tracts of wastelands. Afforestation of these wastelands is one of the many alternative uses of such lands. Given the scarcity of capital in India| it becomes imperative to determine the economics and financial feasibility of wastelands afforestation projects. The studies reviewed in this paper deal with cost and financial feasibility analysis of wastelands afforestation projects in India. The main rationale behind this review is to examine the prospects of increasing investments in the afforestation projects. This also has a global significance| since afforestation augments carbon sequestration| which has become an exigency in view of externalities associated with global warming. The study uses review of existing literature and regression analysis as analytical tools. The review reveals that reclamation of wastelands through afforestation is not an expensive venture in India. Afforestation projects are financially viable even when no environmental benefits are taken into consideration. The results of the study suggest that polluting companies/countries should explore the possibility of investing in afforestation in India to gain carbon credits economically| once the parties to the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change decide to approve it. The studies reviewed reveal that researchers have used different sets of criteria for financial feasibility analysis of the afforestation projects. Almost all the studies have ignored non-market benefits of afforestation projects. Such methodological differences need to be addressed in view of the increasing importance of plantations as carbon sinks. Some socioeconomic issues like investment in tree crops vis-a-vis agricultural crops| preference for mixed plantation and wastelands development as a means of resource development have also emerged from this review. 2709,2003,2,4,Ecosystem responses to global climate change: Moving beyond color mapping,Current assessments of climate-change effects on ecosystems use two key approaches: (1) empirical synthesis and modeling of species range shifts and life-cycle processes that coincide with recent evidence of climate warming| from which scenarios of ecosystem change are inferred; and (2) experiments examining plant-soil interactions under simulated climate warming. Both kinds of assessment offer indisputable evidence that climate change and its effects on ecosystems are ongoing. However| both approaches often provide conservative estimates of the effects of climate change on ecosystems| because they do not consider the interplay and feedback among higher trophic levels in ecosystems| which may have a large effect on plant species composition and on ecosystem services such as productivity| Understanding the impacts of these top-down processes on ecosystems is critical for determining large-scale ecosystem response to climate change. Using examples of links between climate forcing| trophic interactions| and changes in ecosystem state in selected terrestrial| freshwater| and marine systems| we show that the ability to understand and accurately forecast future effects of climate change requires an integrated perspective| linking climate and the biotic components of the ecosystem as a whole. 2794,2003,2,3,Effect of global climate change and human disturbances on tree diversity of the forest regenerating from clear-cuts of mixed broadleaved Korean pine forest in Northeast China,Studies on the combined effects of global climate change and human disturbances are important for biodiversity conservation and natural resources management. Here we use the modified forest dynamics model to simulate the tree diversity change of a typical mixed broadleaved Korean pine forest regenerating from clear-cuts in Northeast China in response to global climate change| double concentration Of CO2 and human disturbances during the next 50 years. We consider the following climate change scenario: the annual temperature will increase 2 degreesC| the annual precipitation will increase 10% and CO2 concentration will increase to 700 mul l(-1) linearly in 50 years. Five kinds of human disturbances under climate change are considered: logging which removes all trees with diameter at the breast height of more than 50 cm; removing all individuals of any one species; and removing all individuals of shade tolerant| shade intolerant and medium type tree species| respectively. We find that the index of proportional representation of species (alpha index) for the forest growing from clear-cuts increases significantly under climate change| but decreases under climate change plus logging. The index of changing representation of species (beta(c) index) increases significantly under climate change and climate change plus logging. When any one species is removed a diversity of the forest growing from clear-cuts changes significantly under climate change| but beta(c) index remains almost the same. When all individuals of shade tolerant species| shade intolerant species| or medium type species are removed| respectively| alpha diversity decreases| but beta(c) diversity changes in more complicated ways. The implications of these results for preserving tree diversity in this type of forest are also discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6241,2003,3,4,Effect of N-based gases to C3F8/O-2 on global warming during silicon nitride PECVD chamber cleaning using a remote plasma source,Silicon nitride cleaning of plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) chamber was carried out by NF3 and C3F3/O-2 using a remote plasma source. The effects of cleaning gases on the silicon nitride cleaning and perfluorocompounds (PFCs) emission properties were studied. To improve the cleaning properties with C3F8/O-2| N-based gases such as N-2| N2O| and NO were added to an optimized condition of C3F8/O-2 (that is| C3F8 : O-2=3:7). The silicon nitride cleaning rate was increased by about 70 % from 260 to 440 nm/min by mixing 5 to 10 % of N-based gases to C3F8(30 %) /O-2(70 %). Million metric tons of carbon equivalents (MMTCEs) were investigated and MMTCEs were decreased from 1.5 x 10(-10) to 8 x 10(-11) by the addition of 5 to 10 % N-based additive gases to C3F8(30 % /O-2(70 %). In the case of NF3| silicon nitride cleaning rate was 900 nm/min and the MMTCE was lower than 5 x 10(-11) at 600 sccm of NF3. Even though N-based gas with added C3F8/O-2 shows a higher MMTCE and a lower silicon nitride cleaning rate than those by NF3| it is believed that N-based gas with added C3F8/O-2 is replaceable to NF3 due to such advantages as relatively low price and low F-2 emission. 6126,2003,3,4,Effect of N-containing additive gases on global warming gas emission during remote plasma cleaning process of silicon nitride PECVD chamber using C4F8/O-2/Ar chemistry,In this study| remote plasma cleaning process was investigated in a silicon nitride plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition chamber using C4F8/O-2/Ar and C4F8/O-2/Ar + additive gas. The remote plasma source used in the present experiments showed the capability of nearly complete destruction| destruction removal efficiency congruent to100%| of C4F8 gas with or without the additive N-2| N2O and NO gases. The cleaning rate of the silicon nitride layers is increased 32-40% by adding N-2| N2O and NO gases to the optimized C4F8/O-2 cleaning chemistry. This is presumably due to the effective reaction of NO radicals formed in the remote plasma with N on the silicon nitride surface| followed by the effective fluorination of Si atoms. As a result| the million metric tons of carbon equivalent values could be effectively reduced due to the decreased emission of CF4 as well as the increased cleaning rate of the silicon nitride layers| comparable to those of NF3/Ar remote plasma cleaning. For the effective reduction of global warming effects| the experimental results indicate a possibility of using the alternative gas such as C4F8 with the N-containing additive gases for the environmentally benign remote plasma cleaning process. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6187,2003,3,3,Effect of steric hindrance on carbon dioxide absorption into new amine solutions: Thermodynamic and spectroscopic verification through solubility and NMR analysis,Acid gas absorption technology is of great importance in these days for the prevention of global warming and the resulting worldwide climate change. More efficient process design and development for the removal of acid gases has become important| together with the development of new absorbents as one of urgent areas of research in addressing global-warming problems. In the present work| aqueous solutions of 2-amino-2-hydroxymethyl-1|3-propanediol (AHPD)| a sterically hindered amine| has been examined as a potential CO2 absorbent and compared with the most commonly used absorbent| monoethanolamine (MEA) solution| through equilibrium solubility measurements and C-13 NMR spectroscopic analyses. The solubilities of CO2 in aqueous 10 mass % AHPD solutions were higher than those in aqueous 10 mass % MEA solutions above 4 kPa at 298.15 K| but below 4 kPa| the solubility behavior appeared to be the opposite. The solubility difference between these two solutions increased with the CO2 partial pressures above the crossover pressure. Equilibrated CO2-MEA-H2O and CO2-AHPD-H2O solutions at various CO2 partial pressures ranging from 0.01 to 3000 kPa were analyzed by C-13 NMR spectroscopy to provide a more microscopic understanding of the reaction mechanisms in the two solutions. In the CO2-amine-H2O solutions| amine reacted with CO2 to form mainly the protonated amine (AMH(+))| bicarbonate ion (HCO3)| and carbarnate anion (AMCO(2) where the quantitative ratio of bicarbonate ion to carbamate anion strongly influenced the CO2 loading in the amine solutions. A profusion of bicarbonate ions| but a very small amount of carbarnate anions| was identified in the CO2-AHPD-H2O solution| whereas a considerable amount of carbamate anions was formed in the CO2-MEA-H2O solution. AHPD contains more hydroxyl groups than nonhindered MEA| and hence| the chemical shifts in its C-13 NMR spectra were strongly influenced by the solution pH values. In contrast| MEA appeared to be insensitive to pH. The strong interrelations among CO2 solubility| CO2 partial pressure| bulkiness of the amine structure| and pH identified through the present experimental investigations can provide basic guidelines for finding new potential organic absorbents| including specifically designed amine chemicals. 6025,2003,2,4,Effect of temperature on the development of the aquatic stages of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (Diptera : Culicidae),Global warming may affect the future pattern of many arthropod-borne diseases| yet the relationship between temperature and development has been poorly described for many key vectors. Here the development of the aquatic stages of Africa's principal malaria vector| Anopheles gambiae s.s. Giles| is described at different temperatures. Development time from egg to adult was measured under laboratory conditions at constant temperatures between 10 and 40degreesC. Rate of development from one immature stage to the next increased at higher temperatures to a peak around 28degreesC and then declined. Adult development rate was greatest between 28 and 32degreesC| although adult emergence was highest between 22 and 26degreesC. No adults emerged below 18degreesC or above 34degreesC. Non-linear models were used to describe the relationship between developmental rate and temperature| which could be used for developing process-based models of malaria transmission. The utility of these findings is demonstrated by showing that a map where the climate is suitable for the development of aquatic stages of A. gambiae s.s. corresponded closely with the best map of malaria risk currently available for Africa. 6096,2003,4,3,Effects of a dynamic ocean on simulated climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases,The potential effects of a dynamic ocean on climate change are assessed by comparison of a simulation from 1880 into the future by the CSIRO (Mark 2) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with equilibrium results from a mixed-layer ocean (MLO) version of the model. At 2082| when the effective CO2 is tripled| the global warming in the coupled model is barely half the 3XCO(2) MLO result| largely because of oceanic heat uptake| as diagnosed using an effective heat capacity. The effective ocean depth continues to increase during a further 1700 years with stabilized tripled CO2| by which time the mean ocean warming reaches the upper ocean value. Some reduction of the coupled model warming is due to the effective sensitivity (for 2XCO(2))| determined from the radiative response to the forcing| being persistently 0.2 K lower than the MLO model value. A regional energy and feedback analysis shows that this is largely due to an overall equatorward oceanic heat transport anomaly| which reduces the high-latitude warming in the coupled model. The global warming at 3800 is around 95% of the anticipated equilibrium value| which is matched by the result of a simple energy balance model for the approach to equilibrium. The geographical effect of the oceanic heat transport is confirmed using a mixed-layer model with perturbed oceanic heat convergence. The eastern equatorial Pacific warming is enhanced by over 1 K| and rainfall is perturbed in an ENSO-like pattern. 6071,2003,2,3,Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on development and consumption rates of Octotoma championi and O-scabripennis feeding on Lantana camara,We carried out a factorial experiment to explore the effect of doubled CO2 concentration and a 3 degreesC temperature increase on the development of a complete generation of the beetles Octotoma championi Baly and O. scabripennis Guerin-Meneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). These species are biological control agents of Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae)| with a leaf-mining larval phase and free-living| leaf-chewing adults. Plants grown at elevated CO2 had enhanced above-ground biomass| thicker leaves| reduced nitrogen concentration| and increased C:N ratios. Under the high temperature treatment| plants grown at ambient CO2 suffered wilting and premature leaf loss| despite daily watering; this effect was ameliorated at elevated CO2. The wilting of plants in the ambient CO2/high temperature treatment reduced the emergence success of the beetles| particularly O. championi. Development time was accelerated by approximately 10-13 days at the higher temperature| but was not affected by CO2. Neither CO2 nor temperature affected adult beetle weight. Consumption rates of free-living beetles were not affected by either CO2 or temperature. By contrast| in the short-term trials using excised foliage| beetles given no choice between ambient and elevated CO2-grown foliage| consumed more from ambient plants. When beetles were offered a choice between foliage grown at the two CO2 levels| O. championi did not display a significant preference but O. scabripennis consumed more ambient CO2-grown foliage when feeding at the lower temperature. This study indicates that under future conditions of higher temperatures| amelioration of water stress in host plants growing in elevated CO2 may benefit some endophagous insects by reducing premature leaf loss. Under some circumstances| this benefit may outweigh the deleterious effects of lower leaf nitrogen. Our results also indicate that foliage consumption under elevated CO2 by mobile| adult insects on whole plants may not be significantly increased| as was previously indicated by short-term experiments using excised foliage. 6216,2003,2,4,Effects of elevated CO2| nitrogen and fungal endophyte-infection on tall fescue: growth| photosynthesis| chemical composition and digestibility,Rising global carbon dioxide levels may lead to profound changes in plant composition| regardless of the degree of global warming that may result from the accumulation of this greenhouse gas. We studied the interaction of a CO2 doubling and two levels of nitrogen fertilizer on the growth and chemical composition of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreber cv. KY-31) when infected and uninfected with the mutualistic fungal endophyte Neotyphodium coenophialum Morgan-Jones and Gams. Two-year-old plants were harvested to 5 cm every 4 weeks| and after 12 weeks of growth plants grown in twice ambient CO2 concentrations: photosynthesized 15% more; produced tillers at a faster rate; produced 53% more dry matter (DM) yield under low N conditions and 61% more DM under high N conditions; the % organic matter (OM) was little changed except under elevated CO2 and high N when %OM increased by 3%; lignin decreased by 14%; crude protein (CP) concentrations (as %DM) declined by 21%; the soluble CP fraction (as %CP) increased by 13%; the acid detergent insoluble CP fraction (as %CP) increased by 12%| and in vitro neutral detergent fiber digestibility declined by 5% under high N conditions but not under low N. Plants infected with the endophytic fungus: photosynthesized 16% faster in high N compared with under low N; flowered earlier than uninfected plants; had 28% less lignin in high N compared with under low N; and had much smaller reductions in CP concentration (as %DM) and smaller increases in the soluble CP fraction (as %CP) and the acid detergent insoluble CP fraction (as %CP) under elevated CO2. Such large and varied changes in plant quality are likely to have large and significant effects on the herbivore populations that feed from these plants. 6204,2003,2,4,Effects of elevated seawater temperature and nitrate enrichment on the branching coral Porites cylindrica in the absence of particulate food,Compounded disturbances are becoming increasingly common on coral reefs. Impacts of global warming| which is generally perceived as the most serious threat to coral reefs today| often coincide with various common anthropogenic disturbances| such as pollution and overharvesting. To better evaluate the impact of global warming| interactions between elevated temperature and background disturbance should be investigated. In this study| the physiological response of the reef-building coral Porites cylindrica was investigated| when exposed to enrichment of dissolved inorganic nitrate (+ 15 muM for 14 days) and elevated seawater temperature ( + 2 C for 48 h)| in the absence of particulate food. It was shown that P. cvlindrica was able to tolerate the temperature exposure without losing symbiotic microalgae or chlorophyll pigments| although the photosynthetic capacity was affected. Nitrate enrichment significantly reduced primary production rate| although zooxanthella population density and chlorophyll concentrations were not affected. The combination of elevated temperature and nitrate enrichment produced an even more pronounced reduction of the production rate. Since coral respiration rate remained unaffected by the treatments| this implies that the corals were unable to acclimate to impaired photosynthesis. However| there was no indication of subsequently reduced tissue growth or increased host catabolism based on tissue biomass measurements. On the other hand| all corals| including controls| lost tissue biomass during the exposure| suggesting a dependence on particulate food. Our results imply that corals on nutrient-exposed reefs may be more stressed during periods of elevated temperature| compared to corals in more pristine areas. 2805,2003,2,4,Effects of hard frost and freeze-thaw cycles on decomposer communities and N mineralisation in boreal forest soil,Decomposition and mineralisation rates generally increase with increasing moisture and temperature. The expected global climate change may enhance precipitation and raise the temperatures at boreal latitudes| but absence of snow together with occasional low temperatures may cause disturbances in soil processes and faunal communities. To test the effects of disturbances such as hard frosts and freeze-thaw cycles on decomposer populations and N mineralisation| we performed two experiments. In the field experiment| carried out in a pine forest| we induced low soil temperatures by preventing snow covering the ground. In the laboratory test we established three "winter" temperature regimes: constant -2degreesC| freeze-thaw cycles of -2degrees to +2degreesC| and the latter with two hard frost periods (-16degreesC). The microcosm experiment included two decomposer communities; the "simple" community included microbes| protozoa and nematodes| and the "complex" community microbes| protozoa| nematodes| enchytraeids and microarthropods. In the field experiment| the populations of enchytraeids and several microarthropod taxa| as well|as microarthropod species richness| decreased in snowfree plots. In the microcosms| virtually all enchytraeids died and microarthropod populations and taxa decreased in the hard frost treatment| but increased in the freeze-thaw treatment. In the laboratory systems with simple decomposer community structure the amount of mineral nitrogen decreased in the freeze-thaw treatment. The experiments revealed that exceptionally low soil temperatures exert a stronger influence on soil fauna than constant benign temperatures or freeze-thaw cycles| but the rapid recovery of populations may counteract the detrimental effect of occasional frost periods. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6170,2003,3,4,Effects of N-fertilisation on CH4 oxidation and production| and consequences for CH4 emissions from microcosms and rice fields,The world's growing human population causes an increasing demand for food| of which rice is one of the most important sources. In rice production nitrogen is often a limiting factor. As a consequence increasing amounts of fertiliser will have to be applied to maximise yields. There is an ongoing discussion on the possible effects of fertilisation on CH4 emissions. We therefore investigated the effects of N-fertiliser (urea) on CH4 emission| production and oxidation in rice microcosms and field experiments. In the microcosms| a substantial but short-lived reduction of CH4 emission was observed after N-addition to 43-d-old rice plants. Methane oxidation increased by 45%| demonstrated with inhibitor measurements and model calculations based on stable carbon isotope data (delta(13) CH4 ). A second fertilisation applied to 92-d-old plants had no effect on CH4 emission rates. The positive effect of additional N on methanotrophic bacteria was also found in vitro for potential CH4 oxidation rates in soil and root samples from the microcosm and field experiments| indicated by elevated initial oxidation rates and reduced lag-phases. Fertilisation did not affect methane production in the microcosms. In the field| the effects were diverse: methane production was inhibited in the topsoil| but stimulated instead in the bulk soil. Stimulation occurred probably in the anaerobic food chain at the level of hydrolytic or fermenting bacteria| because acetate| a methanogenic precursor| increased simultaneously. Combining field| microcosm and laboratory experiments we conclude that any agricultural treatment improving the N-supply to the rice plants will also be favourable for the CH4 oxidising bacteria. However| N-fertilisation had only a transient influence and was counter-balanced in the field by an elevated CH4 production. A negative effect of the fertilisation was a transient increase of N-2 O emissions from the microcosms. However| integrating over the season the global warming potential (GWP) of N-2 O emitted after fertilisation was still negligible compared to the GWP of emitted CH4 . 6077,2003,2,4,Effects of spatial and temporal variability in soil moisture on widths and delta C-13 values of eastern Siberian tree rings,We studied the relationships between earlywood/latewood width| stable carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C) of cellulose| and soil moisture at a dry and a wet site in Yakutsk| eastern Siberia| which differed considerably in soil water conditions. Recharge of soil water by snowmelt in spring and subsequent drought in summer provided a marked seasonal contrast in soil water conditions between the earlywood and latewood formation period. Ring index was calculated by dividing each earlywood/latewood width by the 5-year averaged width for each individual. In order to determine whether drought influenced the ring index-delta(13)C relation| the ring index time series were compared with delta(13)C time series. We collected wood samples from eight Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. and four Pinus sylvestris L. trees from the two sites and measured the earlywood and latewood widths and delta(13)C of earlywood and latewood formed during the years 1996-2000. At the dry site| seasonal soil water content variation corresponded to seasonal delta(13)C variation of tree rings. We found negative ring index-delta(13)C correlations in latewood for both species at the dry site mainly dominated by Pinus but not in latewood of Larix at the wet site dominated by Larix. Decrease and/or early cessation of latewood growth and increase in delta(13)C under drought conditions possibly explain this negative correlation. This suggests the growth limitation of trees in this region by drought and the prospects of reconstructing past drought with latewood delta(13)C of the dry site. 6275,2003,3,3,Effects of SRT and DO on N2O reductase activity in an anoxic-oxic activated sludge system,Nitrous oxide (N2O) is emitted from wastewater treatment processes| and is known to be a green house gas contributing to global warming. It is thus important to develop technology that can suppress N2O emission. The effects of sludge retention time (SRT) and dissolved oxygen (DO) on N2O emission in an anoxic-oxic activated sludge system were estimated. Moreover| the microbial community structure in the sludge| which plays an important role in N2O Suppression| was clarified based on nitrous oxide reductase (nosZ) gene analysis by molecular biological techniques. The results showed that under low SRT conditions| nitrification efficiency was reduced and the N2O emission rate in the oxic reactors was increased. It was also observed that N2O emission was enhanced under low DO conditions| where the available oxygen is insufficient for nitrification. Moreover| molecular analysis revealed that the clones identified in this study were closely related to Ralstonia eutropha and Paracoccus denitrificans. The fact that the identified sequences are not closely related to known culturable denitrifier nosZ sequences indicates a substantial in situ diversity of denitrifiers contributing to N2O suppression| which are not reflected in the cultivatable fraction of the population. The further application of these new molecular techniques should serve to enhance our knowledge of the microbial community of denitrifying bacteria contributing to N2O suppression in wastewater treatment systems.
6031,2003,2,4,Effects of UVB preconditioning on heat tolerance of cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.),To study the preconditioning effects of exposure to UVB on heat tolerance (44-48 degreesC)| 10-day-old cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) seedlings were irradiated for 6 days with a daily dose of either 3.4| 5.5 or 10.6 kJ m(-2) of biologically effective UVB (UVBBE). Cellulose diacetate-filtered UVB lamps were used to supply UVB. These approximated low| ambient (medium) and twice-ambient (high) UVB doses| respectively| at 42degreesN latitude on a clear day during the summer solstice. A parallel group of control plants| held under polyester (PE)-filtered UVB lamps| received no UVB. UVB treatment increased the level of methanol-extractable UV-absorbing phenols in cotyledons and primary leaves. In a further HPLC analysis of acid-hydrolyzed leaf extract| eight peaks were separated. The two major peaks were co-chromatographed with authentic flavonoids| quercetin and kaempferol. The quercetin-like compound was preferentially enhanced in UVB-exposed plants. When the low and medium UVB-irradiated plants were later heat-stressed (46 degreesC| 1 h)| survival improved by 112 and 82% and height growth increased by 35 and 40%| respectively| compared with controls that received no UVB. In contrast to low and ambient levels of UVB| which reduced membrane leakage| twice-ambient levels increased lipid peroxidation and electrolyte leakage. Although exposure to above-ambient levels of UVB was injurious| low and ambient doses of UVB promoted survival and growth of cucumber seedlings. Such a synergism between UVB and heat tolerance could be used to precondition seedlings grown in UVB-deficient greenhouses and may benefit plants under the predicted global warming scenario. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6043,2003,2,4,El Nino drives timing of breeding but not population growth in the song sparrow (Melospiza melodia),Increasing evidence suggests that climate change affects the timing of breeding in birds| but there is less evidence to show how such changes affect the population dynamics of birds overall. Over the past 43 years| song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) on Mandarte Island| British Columbia| Canada have not shown an advance in breeding date in response to global warming. However| this population did show considerable annual variation in timing of breeding correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Birds bred earlier in warmer El Nino years and later in colder La Nina years. Early breeding strongly increased reproductive output. However| annual variation in timing of breeding had little effect on population growth| perhaps because the population is strongly regulated by the rate of recruitment by juveniles. The juvenile recruitment rate declined with increasing population density but showed little response to climate. These findings suggest that populations will vary in response to climate change depending on how climate affects the demographic parameters that contribute most to population growth. 6057,2003,4,3,Electron and photon induced processes in SF(5)CF(3),The photo-absorption cross section of trilluoromethyl sulphur pentafluoride| SF(5)CF(3) has been measured using synchrotron radiation in the range of 4-11 eV (310 nm > X > 110 nm) and comparison made with electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS). The. measured VUV cross sections are used to derive the photolysis rate of SF5CF3 in the terrestrial atmosphere. It is estimated that the lifetime for this molecule is the order of a 1000 years and the calculated global warming potential (GWP) is found to be between 17000 and 18100| making it one of the most potent global warming gases in the terrestrial atmosphere. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2828,2003,2,4,Elevated sea-surface temperature| reduced provisioning and reproductive failure of wedge-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus pacificus) in the southern Great Barrier Reef| Australia,During the 2002 austral summer abnormally high sea-surface temperatures (SST) occurred in the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR)| Australia. This phenomenon was accompanied by reduced provisioning| decreased growth rates and reproductive failure of wedge-tailed shearwaters in the region. In 2002| adults were unable to compensate for changes in either the availability and/or accessibility of forage-fish by increasing food loads or foraging rates. This is one of few studies to explicitly correlate decreases in chick provisioning with above-average annual variation in SST and is the first to do so for a tropical seabird species in the western Pacific. It adds to an increasing number of data sets identifying the potential negative impacts of increasing SST at upper-trophic levels. As SST continue to rise with global climate change| our results predict substantial detrimental effects on seabird populations of the GBR. This finding has important implications for both seabird and coral reef ecosystem management in the region. Our results also suggest that wedge-tailed shearwaters are sensitive indicators to changes in forage-fish availability/accessibility associated with SST variation that can be used to develop models of| and monitor for| these potential impacts. 6323,2003,3,3,empirical investigation of household vehicle type choice decisions,Automobile ownership models are an integral part of comprehensive transportation modeling systems. Recent work and ongoing advances in the area of activity-based travel demand modeling have recognized the need for increased experimentation with automobile choice models. On the other hand| while automobiles are very important in people's everyday lives| they also have a serious impact on the environment. This impact occurs at the micro level (pollution) as well as the macro level (emission of greenhouse gases and global warming). Such impacts have led to increased interest in reducing motor vehicle emissions. A household automobile type choice model was developed at a disaggregate level. The model can provide a direct forecast of consumer demand for personal-use vehicles given the available choices. A well-developed form of discrete choice modeling techniques| the nested logit model| was used to investigate the process of household automobile type choice decisions given that a transaction has occurred. 6277,2003,3,2,Energy and environmental issues relating to greenhouse gas emissions in Turkey,States have played a leading role in protecting the environment by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). State emissions are significant on a global scale. CO2 and CO are the main GHGs associated with global warming. At the present time| coal is responsible for 30-40% of the world CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. SO2 and NOx contribute to acid rain. Carbon assessments can play an important role in a strategy to control carbon dioxide emissions while raising revenue. In 1992| Turkish Ministry of Environment issued a regulation providing for emissions testing for cars| trucks and vans. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6093,2003,3,3,Energy systems and the climate dilemma - Reflecting the impact on CO2 emissions by reconstructing regional energy systems,Global warming is one of the most important environmental issues today. One step for the European Union to fulfil the Kyoto protocol| stating a worldwide decrease of emissions of greenhouse gases| is to treat the environment as a scarce resource by attributing costs for environmental impact. This accompanied with considering the European electricity market as one common market| where coal condensing power is the marginal production| lead to the possibility to reduce CO2-emissions in Europe by reconstructing energy systems at a local scale in Sweden. A regional energy system model is used to study possibilities to replace electricity and fossil fuel used for heating with biomass and how a reconstruction can affect the emissions of CO2. An economic approach is used where cost-effective technical measures are analysed using present conditions and by including monetary values of externalities. The analysis shows that| by acting economically rational| a large amount of electricity and fossil fuel should| in three Out Of four cases| be replaced leading to a substantial reduction of CO2 emissions. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2774,2003,2,4,Enhanced growth of sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) in response to manipulated ecosystem warming,Global models project impending climate changes that could significantly alter plant species composition in ecosystems. Climate manipulation experiments provide an opportunity to investigate such effects. Here we describe and apply a method for extracting the age-detrended growth rate of sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) and show that experimental ecosystem warming enhances the growth rate of this shrub. Snowmelt date| not soil temperature or moisture| is demonstrated to be the dominant climate variable controlling the observed effect. Our findings suggest that global climate change will result in increased growth and range expansion of sagebrush near northern or high-elevation range boundaries in the Western United States. 6173,2003,2,4,ENSO| rainfall and temperature influences on extreme population declines among African savanna ungulates,Climatic variation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a widespread influence on the population dynamics of many organisms worldwide. While previous analyses have related the dynamics of northern ungulates to the NAO| there has been no comparable assessment for the species rich assemblages of tropical and subtropical Africa. Census records for 11 ungulate species in South Africa's Kruger National Park over 1977-96 reveal severe population declines by seven species| which were inadequately explained by indices of ENSO or its effects on annual rainfall totals. An additional influence was an extreme reduction in dry season rainfall| concurrent with and perhaps related to a regional temperature rise| possibly a signal of global warming. Boundary fencing now restricts range shifts by such large mammals in response to climatic variation. Our models project near extirpation of three ungulate species from the park's fauna should these climatic conditions recur. 6217,2003,3,4,Environmental benefits of livestock manure management practices and technology by life cycle assessment,An environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) procedure is constructed to compare the total emissions from different techniques for managing livestock wastes. Life Cycle Assessment is a method of holistically and systematically accounting for the environmental benefits and burdens of the production of goods and services including consequential burdens generated elsewhere. As waste emissions are very variable| the methodology is extended to include the uncertainty in the estimates in order to indicate the significance of differences between techniques. The object is to inform policy of whether options are better for the environment by quantifying potential emissions abatement| by highlighting priority environmental impacts and by revealing compromises for further investigation. This paper reports comparative LCAs for several pig waste management options. For example| various slurry application techniques| including: splash plates| band spreaders and injection. If the splash-plate system is taken as a reference| the injector system causes only 64% of the environmental acidification and 71% of the eutrophication of surface waters. The benefits must be offset against the increase in nitrate leaching of 50%. In contrast| the band spreader system offers 28% of the benefits of injection. The environmental impacts have also been expressed as a proportion of the UK national emissions. This gives each impact a weighted-value that enables direct comparisons of disparate impacts. Although band spreader systems showed an aggregated| or total| environmental impact reduction of almost 10%| the reduction is not significant when uncertainty is taken into account. Using an anaerobic digester shows few overall benefits due to the fugitive losses of methane. However| if these can be eliminated the global warming potential from waste management is reduced close to zero. (C) 2003 Silsoe Research Institute. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 2751,2003,3,4,Environmental degradation and remediation: Is economics part of the problem?,It is argued that standard environmental economic and 'ecological economics'| have the same fundamentals of valuation in terms of money| based on a demand curve derived from utility maximization. But this approach leads to three different measures of value. An invariant measure of value exists only if the consumer has 'homothetic preferences'. In order to obtain a numerical estimate of value| specific functional forms are necessary| but typically these estimates do not converge. This is due to the fact that the underlying economic model is not structurally stable. According to neoclassical economics| any environmental remediation can be justified only in terms of increases in consumer satisfaction| balancing marginal gains against marginal costs. It is not surprising that the optimal policy obtained from this approach suggests only small reductions in greenhouse gases. We show that a unidimensional metric of consumer's utility measured in dollar terms can only trivialize the problem of global climate change. 6218,2003,3,3,Environmental impact assessment of conventional and organic milk production,Organic agriculture addresses the public demand to diminish environmental pollution of agricultural production. Until now| however| only few studies tried to determine the integrated environmental impact of conventional versus organic production using life cycle assessment (LCA). The aim of this article was to review prospects and constraints of LCA as a tool to assess the integrated environmental impact of conventional and organic animal production. This aim was illustrated using results from LCAs in the literature and from a pilot study comparing conventional and organic milk production. This review shows that LCAs of different case studies currently cannot be compared directly. Such a comparison requires further international standardisation of the LCA method. A within-case-study comparison of LCAs of conventional and organic production| however| appeared suitable to gain knowledge and to track down main differences in potential environmental impact. Acidification potential of milk production| for example| is for 78-97% due to volatilisation of ammonia| which is not reduced necessarily by changing from conventional to organic milk production. Eutrophication potential per tonne of milk or per ha of farmland was lower for organic than for conventional milk production due to lower fertiliser application rates. Global warming potential of milk production is for 48-65% due to emission of methane. Organic milk production inherently increases methane emission and| therefore| can reduce global warming potential only by reducing emission of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide considerably. Organic milk production reduces pesticide use| whereas it increases land use per tonne of milk. Conclusions regarding potential environmental impact of organic versus conventional milk production| however| are based largely on comparison of experimental farms. To show differences in potential environmental impact among various production systems| however| LCAs should be performed at a large number of practical farms for each production system of interest. Application of LCA on practical farms| however| requires in-depth research to understand underlying processes| and to predict| or measure| variation in emissions realised in practice. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. 6229,2003,3,3,Environmental impact oil fossil fuel fired co-generation plants using a numerically standardized LCA scheme,This paper describes the LCA environmental impacts resulting from fuel fired co-generation systems using our NETS (Numerical Eco-load Total Standard-[1]) scheme having GUI (Graphic User Interface). Following a brief introduction of the NETS evaluation method| firstly the total eco-load from commercial electricity power plants in Japan is numerically calculated in the NETS unit. We take here almost all factors into account including fuel mining| transportation and processing| plant manufacturing| assembling and its building construction| fuel consumption and maintenance during twenty durable years| plant dismantling and waste processing| thermal efficiency and delivery loss| etc. This evaluation greatly helps in the eco-load estimation of co-generation plants when electricity purchase is needed during the plant operation with a minimum eco-load. Next| co-generation systems are paid attention to their ecological effiectiveness. Here| we select different fuel fired co-generation plants of natural gas| heavy oil| and coal. Environmental impacts resulting from the respective plants include fossil fuel depletion and natural resources depletion| global warming due to green house gases| ozone layer depletion due to CFC type gas emission| various water and air pollution| rain acidification due to NOx and SOx| waste processing| recycling etc. Each item can be successfully calculated from the inventory database accumulated by authors. Hourly energy demands of electricity and heat (steam| hot water and cold water) are set to a typical model for eight office buildings and two hotels. The NETS method is applied to the co-generation model| resulting in the best cost-operating scheme of co-generation plants with a minimum environmental impact. 6302,2003,3,3,Environmentally benign etching process of amorphous silicon and tungsten using species evaporated from polytetrafluoroethylene and fluorinated ethylene propylene,Environmentally benign etching process of amorphous silicon (a-Si) and tungsten (W) by using a plasma process with an evaporation of solid materials system has been developed for replacing a conventional plasma process using green house gases| such as SF6 gas and perfluorocompound gases causing global warming. The evaporation system was designed to generate fluorocarbon species from solid materials by a CO| laser irradiation. An electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) plasma using O-2 accompanied with injection of species evaporated from solid materials has been applied to a-Si and W etching for cleaning process in chemical vapor deposition chamber. Fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP) and polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) are selected as the solid material and the etching characteristics between FEP and PTFE have been compared. Furthermore| the etching of a-Si and W films has been performed in the divergent magnetic field ECR downstream plasma [electron density (n(e)); similar to 10(10) cm(-3)| electron temperature (T-e); 1.5-2.8 eV] and a planar ECR plasma [n(e); similar to10(10) cm(-3)| T-e; 3.4-4.4 eV] using O-2 gas with FEP evaporation. As a result| high etching rates of a-Si and W films of above 100 nm/min were successfully obtained at a substrate temperature of 400 degreesC in the planar ECR plasma of higher electron temperature. CFx (x = 1-3) radical densities and F atom density in plasmas were measured by an infrared diode laser absorption spectroscopy and an actinometric optical emission spectroscopy. respectively. On the basis of these measurements of species. the etching mechanisms of a-Si and W films are discussed. (C) 2003 American Vacuum Society. 5995,2003,3,4,Estimating the environmental impact of catastrophic chemical releases to the atmosphere - An index method for ranking alternative chemical process routes,This paper presents an index called the atmospheric hazard index (AHI)| which can be used to assess the potential impact of airborne releases from a chemical production plant. A catastrophic failure of the plant is assumed and the impacts on the atmospheric environment are estimated. The method is designed for assessing possible alternative process routes [the raw material(s) and the sequence of reaction steps that converts them to the desired product(s)] to make a chemical| in order to determine the route that has the least adverse atmospheric environmental impact. Thus the routes that are inherently environmentally hazardous can be identified and avoided when the selection is made in the early stages of production plant design. The atmospheric impact categories considered are toxicity| photochemical smog| acid deposition| global warming and stratospheric ozone depletion. The magnitude of these impacts are expressed on a scale of 0 (minimum) to 10 (maximum). Each of these impact categories is assigned an importance factor value (I) depending upon: the spatial scale affected by| the degree of 'directness' of and the reversibility of the impact. These factors are used to calculate a weighted category hazard (WCH) value for each chemical. The WCH of all the impact categories and chemicals are combined to estimate the AHI. The AHI has been tested on six potential and established routes to methyl methacrylate (MMA). The route based on propylene has the lowest AHI value. In all the routes the storage inventory has the potential to cause the most environmental damage compared with the reaction and separation inventories. 6284,2003,3,4,Estimation of methane emission from rice cultivation in Korea,This study focused on estimating a methane (CH4) inventory and developing mitigation options in South Korea| and was performed jointly in an integrated national research program on CH4 from rice fields conducted by three National Agricultural Research Institutes| under the Rural Development Administration during 1993-1997. Methane emissions were measured by a closed chamber method| in rice plots at three locations (Suwon| Iksan| and Milyang) with the single rice cropping system. All experimental data from 5 years of study were summarized and used for calculating nation-wide CH4 emissions. Temperature| soil type| cultural practices| water management| organic matter management| and cultivar selection significantly affected the fluctuations of CH4 emissions. The two most promising mitigation options for reducing emissions were altered water management| in particular mid-season aeration by short-term drainage| and improved organic matter management| by promotion of aerobic degradation through composing or soil incorporation. Annual total CH4 emission in Korea changed from 410 Gg in 1990 to 339 Gg in 2000| due mainly to a decrease in the cultivated area of paddy rice. If we convert annual CH4 emission to Global Warming Potential as CO2 equivalent| it amounts to 7.1M CO2 t yr(-1) of greenhouse gas emitted to the atmosphere in 2000 from-the rice fields in Korea| which is just 5.3% of the annual CO2 emission from the industry and energy sector. More importantly| the balance between CO2 uptake by photosynthesis and CO2 emission is positive (a net|sink)| so that rice culture actually has net benefits for the global atmospheric carbon issue. Further reductions in emission amounts| by following recommendations in this article| could make these benefits even greater. 6208,2003,4,4,Estimation of soil degradation rate constants from vertical distribution of soil carbon content,A simple model interpreting vertical distribution of soil carbon was constructed and annual degradation rate constants of soil carbon for various forest soils were estimated. The model is based on the material balance at the soil surface| and assumes that the relationship between soil depth and soil carbon is linear. The estimated soil degradation rates were of the similar order of magnitude| and we concluded that this model might be used for rough estimation of soil carbon degradation rates of forest soils where vertical distributions of soil carbon are available. 6157,2003,2,4,European river floods in a changing world,Whereas the verdict is undecided about the effects of global warming on Europe's flood risks| it is clear that Europeans are becoming more exposed and vulnerable to floods. Losses are increasing dramatically| mainly because of population and capital moving into harm's way and also because of human-driven transformations of hydrological systems| including river basins and floodplains. 2792,2003,4,4,Evaluating predictive models of species' distributions: criteria for selecting optimal models,The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP) is one of several current approaches to modeling species' distributions using occurrence records and environmental data. Because of stochastic elements in the algorithm and underdetermination of the system (multiple solutions with the same value for the optimization criterion)| no unique solution is produced. Furthermore| current implementations of GARP utilize only presence data-rather than both presence and absence| the more general case. Hence| variability among GARP models| which is typical of genetic algorithms| and complications in interpreting results based on asymmetrical (presence-only) input data make model selection critical. Generally| some locality records are randomly selected to build a distributional model| with others set aside to evaluate it. Here| we use intrinsic and extrinsic measures of model performance to determine whether optimal models can be identified based on objective intrinsic criteria| without resorting to an independent test data set. We modeled potential distributions of two rodents (Heteromys anomalus and Microryzomys minutus) and one passerine bird (Carpodacus mexicanus)| creating 20 models for each species. For each model| we calculated intrinsic and extrinsic measures of omission and commission error| as well as composite indices of overall error. Although intrinsic and extrinsic composite measures of overall model performance were sometimes loosely related to each other| none was consistently associated with expert-judged model quality. In contrast| intrinsic and extrinsic measures were highly correlated for both omission and commission in the two widespread species (H. anomalus and C mexicanus). Furthermore| a clear inverse relationship existed between omission and commission there| and the best models were consistently found at low levels of omission and moderate-to-high commission values. In contrast| all models for M. minutus showed low values of both omission and commission. Because models are based only on presence data (and not all areas are adequately sampled)| the corm-nission index reflects not only true commission error but also a component that results from undersampled areas that the species actually inhabits. We here propose an operational procedure for determining an optimal region of the omission/commission relationship and thus selecting high-quality GARP models. Our implementation of this technique for H. anomalus gave a much more reasonable estimation of the species' potential distribution than did the original suite of models. These findings are relevant to evaluation of other distributional-modeling techniques based on presence-only data and should also be considered with other machine-learning applications modified for use with asymmetrical input data. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6145,2003,3,4,Evaluating uncertainty in environmental life-cycle assessment. A case study comparing two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling,The evaluation of uncertainty is relatively new in environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA). It provides useful information to assess the reliability of LCA-based decisions and to guide future research toward reducing uncertainty. Most uncertainty studies in LCA quantify only one type of uncertainty| i.e.| uncertainty due to input data (parameter uncertainty). However| LCA outcomes can also be uncertain due to normative choices (scenario uncertainty) and the mathematical models involved (model uncertainty). The present paper outlines a new methodology that quantifies parameter| scenario| and model uncertainty simultaneously in environmental life-cycle assessment. The procedure is illustrated in a case study that compares two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling. Parameter uncertainty was quantified by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Scenario and model uncertainty were quantified by resampling different decision scenarios and model formulations| respectively. Although scenario and model uncertainty were not quantified comprehensively| the results indicate that both types of uncertainty influence the case study outcomes. This stresses the importance of quantifying parameter| scenario| and model uncertainty simultaneously. The two insulation options studied were found to have significantly different impact scores for global warming| stratospheric ozone depletion| and eutrophication. The thickest insulation option has the lowest impact on global warming and eutrophication| and the highest impact on stratospheric ozone depletion. 6010,2003,4,4,Evaluation of FNO and F3NO as substitute gases for semiconductor CVD chamber cleaning,Two types of FNO compounds (FNO and F3NO) were evaluated as candidates for new chemical vapor deposition (CVD) chamber cleaning gases. NF3 and C2F6 were measured as the reference. Like NF3| as these gases have no carbon in their molecules| no perfluoro carbon (PFC) is thought to be emitted. FNO is a compound highly susceptible to hydrolysis. F3NO is expected to decompose more easily than NF3 in the atmosphere because its N-F bond has been weakened by introducing an N=O bond into the molecule. Hence| the contribution to global warming of these compounds is expected to be small. Performance of these gases was evaluated by measuring their etch rates and their exhaust gases. The results showed that the etch rate of F3NO is virtually the same as that of NF3| whereas the etch rate of FNO is about 1/2 that of NF3. However| from the results of exhaust gas analysis| it was found that an unexpected side reaction had occurred in the chamber| and therefore| it was confirmed that it is important to take this property into account in designing applications. (C) 2003 The Electrochemical Society. 6168,2003,4,4,Evidence for recent changes in a surface-air warming singularity in late winter over central North America,[1] Evidence for an earlier onset of spring in recent years is supported by daily temperature data from central North America. From 1976-1999| mean temperatures during February 15th through 24th were appreciably higher (5degreesC or more over large areas) than during 1952-1975. This is associated with a strengthened Aleutian Low for those calendar days during 1976-1999| with negative pressure anomalies extending well into North America. This apparently reflects a decrease in strong| cold| high-pressure systems moving from western Canada into the north central United States during late February. These changes appear to be related to conditions in and over the North Pacific Ocean| possibly in conjunction with global warming| although the latter signal is not clearly obvious. Comparison of time series of daily minimum temperatures for the earlier period (1952 1975) and the recent period (1976-1999) indicates other times of the year when an appreciable warming has occurred; such warming is largely confined to the first half of the calendar year. 6095,2003,2,4,Feedbacks affecting the response of the thermohaline circulation to increasing CO2: a study with a model of intermediate complexity,A three-dimensional ocean model with an idealized geometry and coarse resolution coupled to a two-dimensional (zonally averaged) statistical-dynamical atmospheric model is used to simulate the response of the thermohaline circulation to increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The relative roles of different factors in the slowing down and recovery of the thermohaline circulation were studied by performing simulations with ocean only and partially coupled models. The computational efficiency of the model allows an extensive and thorough study of the causes of changes in the strength of the thermohaline circulation| through a large number of extended runs. The evolution of the atmosphere-to-ocean surface heat fluxes is shown to be the dominant factor in causing the weakening of the circulation in response to an increasing external forcing as well as in controlling the subsequent recovery. The feedback between heat flux and the sea surface temperature is necessary for the ocean circulation to recover. The rate of the recovery| however| is not sensitive to the magnitude of the feedback| and changes in the atmosphere| while contributing to the recovery| play a secondary role. In the case of very strong feedback| substantial changes in the SST structure are shown not to be a necessary condition for the recovery of the circulation. Subsurface changes in the density structure accompany recovery despite nearly fixed SST in one of the uncoupled experiments. Changes in the zonal distribution of heat fluxes serve as a positive feedback for both decrease and recovery of the meridional overturning| and are as important as changes in the zonal-mean values of heat fluxes. The secondary role of the moisture fluxes is explained by a smaller magnitude of their contribution to the surface buoyancy flux. Imposing amplified changes in the moisture fluxes leads to a significant slow down of the circulation| accompanied| however| by changes in the heat flux. The changed heat flux| in its turn| makes a significant contribution to the future slow down. This feedback complicates the evaluation of the relative roles of the different fluxes. 5967,2003,4,4,Field measurements of atmosphere-biosphere interactions in a Danish beech forest,A field station was established in a beech forest near Soro| Denmark in the spring of 1996 to provide a platform for Studies of atmosphere-biosphere interactions. The station is equipped with a 57-m mast and a 24-m scaffolding tower. The mast makes it possible to measure profiles of gaseous atmospheric compounds and meteorological variables and to undertake measurements of fluxes by the eddy covariance method. The tower gives access to the tree canopy where branch and leaf level exchange of water vapour and CO2 is measured. Soil-atmosphere exchange of gaseous compounds is investigated with gas flux chambers on the soil surface. Water-mediated transport of C and N is measured in throughfall| stemflow and soil water. The paper provides information on the site| vegetation| climate and soil and gives a description of the instrumentation and other technical installations at the site. The paper also presents and discusses example results from the measurements such as meteorological variables (temperature| wind speed| wind direction| radiation| rainfall and relative humidity)| gaseous concentrations (O-3) and fluxes (CO2| CH4 and N2O)| water mediated transport (NO3- and NH4+ in rainfall| throughfall| stemflow and soil water) and measurements on the trees (leaf area index| specific leaf area| litter fall| CO2 exchange at branch and leaf level| maximum photosynthetic capacity). The forest acted in all years as a carbon sink with an average uptake of 190 g C m(-2) yr(-1). Contributions| from CH4 and N2O in terms of global warming potential (GWP) were less than 10% of the CO2. CH4 was deposited and NO emitted| almost neutralising each other in terms of GWP Leaves at the top of the canopy had the highest photosynthetic capacity (mid summer maximum of 50 mumol m(-2) s(-1)) and leaves at the bottom the lowest (20 mumol m(-2) s(-1))| indicating a clear acclimation to light. Sun leaves generally had significantly lower specific leaf area (118 cm(2) g(-1)) and water content (42%) than shade leaves (specific leaf area: 282 cm(2) g(-1); water content: 53%). On an annual basis about 24% of the precipitation was lost as evaporation| 66% reached the forest floor as throughfall and 10% as stemflow. Due to leaching of NO3- from the trees| the forest floor received 30% more nitrogen than in precipitation| resulting in a total input of 2.9 g N m(-2) yr(-1)). The soil water was almost completely depleted in NO3- with NH4+ constituting 97% of the total available inorganic nitrogen. 6255,2003,2,4,Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants,Over the past 100 years| the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 degreesC and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate(1). Although species have responded to climatic changes throughout their evolutionary history(2)| a primary concern for wild species and their ecosystems is this rapid rate of change(3). We gathered information on species and global warming from 143 studies for our meta-analyses. These analyses reveal a consistent temperature-related shift| or 'fingerprint'| in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees. Indeed| more than 80% of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently| the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant populations. The synergism of rapid temperature rise and other stresses| in particular habitat destruction| could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities| reflecting differential changes in species| and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions. 6267,2003,4,4,Fixation and chemical analysis of single fog and rain droplets,Last decade| the importance of global environmental problems has been recognized worldwide. Acid rain is one of the most important global environmental problems as well as the global warming. The grasp of physical and chemical properties of fog and rain droplets is essential to make clear the physical and chemical processes of acid rain and also their effects on forests| materials and ecosystems. We examined the physical and chemical properties of single fog and raindrops by applying fixation technique. The sampling method and treatment procedure to fix the liquid droplets as a solid particle were investigated. Small liquid particles like fog droplet could be easily fixed within few minutes by exposure to cyanoacrylate vapor. The large liquid particles like raindrops were also fixed successively| but some of them were not perfect. Freezing method was applied to fix the large raindrops. Frozen liquid particles existed stably by exposure to cyanoacrylate vapor after freezing. The particle size measurement and the elemental analysis of the fixed particle were performed in individual base using microscope| and SEX-EDX| particle-induced X-ray emission (PIXE) and micro-PIXE analyses| respectively. The concentration in raindrops was dependent upon the droplet size and the elapsed time from the beginning of rainfall. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2775,2003,2,4,Fluctuations of Vanessa cardui butterfly abundance with El Nino and Pacific Decadal Oscillation climatic variables,Annual 4th of July Butterfly Count data spanning more than 20 years are examined to explore Vanessa cardui (Painted Lady) population fluctuations with ENSO (El Nino) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices. California| Colorado and Nebraska censuses exhibit a strong positive correlation with the strong El Nino events of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 and the weaker event of 1991-1992. Regression analysis shows the population fluctuations are strongly coupled to climate variations on both short (El Nino) and longer (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) time scales. Recognizing the sensitivity to these time scales is important for predicting longer-term global climate change effects. 6232,2003,4,4,Forest woody biomass classification with satellite-based radar coherence over 900 000 km(2) in Central Siberia,In the current context of global deforestation and global warming| a wide range of organisations| with local to international remits| need estimates of forest biomass to assess the state of the World's forests and their rate of change. The task would be impossible without space-based Earth observation| which allows the rapid generation of extensive data sets describing land surface properties. It is the task of remote sensing scientists to interpret these data into a meaningful source of forest information. Here| a fast and easily automated method for classifying boreal forests in terms of growing stock volume is presented. The work was conducted as part of the SIBERIA project| which has resulted in the recent publication of a map of forest growing stock volume covering 2 900 000 km(2) in Central Siberia. The paper describes the use of satellite-based radar coherence to differentiate categories of forest growing stock volume| the application of this method to classify and map Central Siberian forests| and the characterisation of the forest classes to help in the interpretation. A list of acronyms and abbreviations used in the text is provided in Appendix A. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6089,2003,3,4,Freonless gas mixtures for glass RPC operated in streamer mode,We have operated successfully glass Resistive Plate Counters (RPC) at the BELLE experiment by using a nonflammable gas mixture of 30% argon| 8% butane-silver and 62% freon| HFC-134a. This freon is nonozone depleting freon| but a freon has a high global warming potential in general. Thus a gas mixture for RPC might be desired to be freonless in the near future. We have tested the performance of glass RPC operated in streamer mode with a nonfreon gas mixture of argon| butane| CO2 and/or O-2 gases| and found an efficiency of about 90%. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5980,2003,3,3,From mine to refrigeration: a life cycle inventory analysis of the production of HFC-134a,A life cycle inventory analysis has been conducted for the production of HFC-134a (1|1|1|2-tetrafluoroethane| CH2FCF3)(1) through from basic raw materials (crude oil| natural gas| sulphur and fluorspar) to the pure product delivered to industrial customers. The analysis was based on real industrial operations in Japan| USA and UK. It showed that production required limestone| water and transition metal catalysts| in addition to the basic raw materials| and that the energy required to provide these raw materials in a form that can be used at the plants and to process them through intermediates into HFC-134a is the equivalent of 4.52 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of product. Environmental releases associated with HFC-134a included waste salt brine (to the sea)| mine tailings (mainly "country" rock landfilled at the mine) and small quantities of calcium sulphate and spent catalyst (both sent to landfill). In addition| greenhouse gases amounting to the equivalent of 2.1 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of product were emitted to the atmosphere from the plants studied| an effect very much smaller than that estimated in previous studies mainly because the real release rates from current processes are very much less than those assumed in prior work. The global warming potential(2) of HFC-134a is 1300| meaning that| during the first 100 years following the release of one tonne| the effect on climate change is equivalent to 1300 tonnes of carbon dioxide. Consequently| the 6.6 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent| emitted during production in the form of energy required and other greenhouse gases| is of relatively little importance and the key requirement to reduce environmental impact is containment during use. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 2813,2003,3,4,From the atomic age to the solar age,One of the most important decisions taken in energy policy in recent years is the "Act on the Planned Termination of the Use of Nuclear Power for Industrial Generation of Electricity." A technology incorporating the hazard of catastrophic accidents| environmental pollution| and detrimental consequences to health| as well as the open question of managing radioactive waste| is not fit for the future. This turnaround in energy policy marks the beginning of the required entry into the solar age. Changing our energy supply is necessary in the light of the threatening scenarios of global climate change and the finite nature of fossil sources of energy| and needs a clear political dimension. The framework conditions to be established by politics for a sustainable power economy thus rest on three pillars: Expansion of renewable energy sources| improvement of energy efficiency| an ddecentralized structures in energy supply. The success of our national energy policy also offers incentives to other countries and for exports. At EU level| important decisions in the interest of the consumer must be supported. 6024,2003,3,3,Fuel consumption-derived CO2 emissions under conventional and reduced tillage cropping systems in northern Japan,In the context of their role in net global warming| CO2 emissions were calculated for fuel-consuming processes associated with arable land crop production in Hokkaido| northern Japan. Fuel-consuming processes included tractor-based field operations| transportation of products and materials and grain drying. In conventional tillage (CT) systems| total CO2 emissions from fuel consumption were 826.2| 605.4| 424.2 and 738.7 kg CO2 ha(-1) for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)| sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.)| adzuki bean (Vigna angularis (Willd.) Ohwi and Ohashi) and potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) production| respectively. In winter wheat production| 55% of total CO2 emission were released from kerosene and electricity use for grain drying| the remainder from tractor-based field operations. In contrast| for sugar beet| adzuki bean and potato production| field operations were the main contributors to CO2 emissions. Of the field operations| tillage and harvesting required the largest amounts of fuels. Under reduced tillage (RT) systems in which soil preparation in early spring was reduced and plowing after harvesting was omitted| 47.51 ha(-1) of diesel oil equivalent to 125.4 kg CO2 ha(-1) could be saved| regardless of crop species. Consequently| total CO2 emissions could be reduced by 15-29%| respectively| in winter wheat and adzuki bean production. In the Tokachi region of Hokkaido| a primary arable crop production region in Japan| annual CO2 emissions under CT and RT for the four crops produced were estimated at 82.7 Gg CO2 per year and 67.4 Gg CO2 per year| respectively. Besides reduced fuel costs| the use of RT production systems could significantly reduce the large quantities Of CO2 released as a result of arable land crop production in northern Japan. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6013,2003,3,4,Gasification and combustion behavior of combustibles injected into coke bed,From the viewpoint of preventing global warming and reducing maintenance costs| the reduction of coke consumption in the direct melting furnace for municipal solid waste is strongly called for. Accordingly| the authors have developed technology for injecting combustibles through the tuyeres of the direct melting furnace. This paper reports on the gasification and combustion behavior of combustibles injected into coke bed in a high-temperature combustion experiment. The main results obtained are as follows: (1) Combustibles such as plastics| combustible dust and LPG injected through tuyeres gasify and burn with priority over coke even under the combustion conditions of a direct melting furnace that has no raceway space. (2) Combustible injection through tuyeres is effective in reducing the coke consumption in the direct melting furnace. 6278,2003,3,3,Generation and transmission prospects for solar electricity: UK and global markets,World energy demands are assumed to double within the next 20 years. Fossil fuels are being depleted at a faster rate than ever before. Global warming and its associated climatic change are becoming serious concerns for governments worldwide. There is| thus| an urgent need for much more efficient and environmentally friendly energy resources to be exploited worldwide. Renewable energy is the solution to these challenges. Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy| is an elegant and effective renewable energy resource that is increasingly being seen as a promising candidate for provision of clean and sustainable power. Using up to 20 years of measured solar radiation data from seven widespread UK locations| the feasibility of interconnected| solar powered communities has been presently undertaken. This study has also explored the long term prospects of large scale PV generation in arid/semi-arid locations| around the globe and its transmission using hydrogen as the energy vector. It is estimated that a single solar PV station of 250 x 250 km(2) area| or 12 decentralised stations each of 72 x 72 km(2) area would be sufficient to meet the year 2020 world electricity demand. Presently| closer attention is paid towards the feasibility of supply of hydrogen from arid/semi-arid regions to meet partially the year 2020 electrical demand. For OECD-Europe| a modular approach is proposed. Estimates show that a 9 x 9 km(2) PV array area would be sufficient to provide a flow rate of 11.5 kg/s of hydrogen through a 2 m diameter pipeline| which translates to an annual capacity of 9 TW h. Because of the low density of hydrogen| compared to natural gas| staged pumping would be required only after a distance of over 3000 km. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6124,2003,2,4,Genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity of Quercus robur populations and open-pollinated families in Lithuania,The purpose of the study was to estimate among- and within-population variation for juvenile growth and for growth rhythm traits| bud flushing and leaf colouring| in open-pollinated families of Quercus robur L. from six Lithuanian populations under different environmental conditions. Assessments were done in the nursery up to 4 yrs| and after replanting in three field trials at the age of 6 yrs. A highly significant population effect was found for bud flushing. Large family variance components were estimated for bud flushing and height. The familyxsite interaction was significant and more pronounced for growth cessation and height than for bud flushing. Depending on the trait| from 13 to 33% of families contributed significantly to the familyxsite interaction. Strongly significant sitexpopulation interaction was estimated only for bud flushing. Families with early bud flushing were taller| although the correlation was weak. Correlations between family means in bud flushing and bud flushing of parent trees varied from 0.53 to 0.60. Large CV A estimates for the adaptive traits suggest that species have a potential to adapt to environmental changes that may occur from global warming and indicate good perspectives for gene conservation and tree breeding when using Multiple Population Breeding System. 6106,2003,2,4,Geochemical evidence of rapid hydrocarbon venting from a seafloor-piercing mud diapir| Gulf of Mexico continental shelf,A research submersible was employed to collect sediments from a previously undescribed diapiric mud mound on the Gulf of Mexico continental shelf. The sediments contain high concentrations Of C-1-C6+ hydrocarbon gases and crude oil. The mud mound hydrocarbons are relatively unaffected by biodegradation| in contrast to the heavily biodegraded hydrocarbons that characterize the sediments of some other Gulf of Mexico seep sites| including those colonized by chemosynthetic communities. The molecular and isotopic properties of the gas and oil suggest rapid hydrocarbon transport from the mound sediments to the water column. The mud mound is an episodic point source of an oil slick on the sea surface. Gas venting is observed on the seafloor| and bubble trains recorded close to the sea surface suggest that greenhouse thermogenic gases (mainly methane) may escape to the atmosphere. Improved understanding of the fate Of C-1-C6+ gases and crude oil in shallow marine sediments will contribute to better assessment of the impact of seep hydrocarbons on the global inventory of atmospheric sources. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2743,2003,5,4,Glacial North Atlantic: Sea-surface conditions reconstructed by GLAMAP 2000,The response of the tropical ocean to global climate change and the extent of sea ice in the glacial nordic seas belong to the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Our new reconstruction of peak glacial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic is based on census counts of planktic foraminifera| using the Maximum Similarity Technique Version 28 (SIMMAX-28) modern analog technique with 947 modern analog samples and 119 well-dated sediment cores. Our study compares two slightly different scenarios of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)| the Environmental Processes of the Ice Age: Land| Oceans| Glaciers (EPILOG)| and Glacial Atlantic Ocean Mapping (GLAMAP 2000) time slices. The comparison shows that the maximum LGM cooling in the Southern Hemisphere slightly preceeded that in the north. In both time slices sea ice was restricted to the north western margin of the nordic seas during glacial northern summer| while the central and eastern parts were ice-free. During northern glacial winter| sea ice advanced to the south of Iceland and Faeroe. In the central northern North Atlantic an anticyclonic gyre formed between 45degrees and 60degreesN| with a cool water mass centered west of Ireland| where glacial cooling reached a maximum of >12degreesC. In the subtropical ocean gyres the new reconstruction supports the glacial-to-interglacial stability of SST as shown by CLIMAP Project Members (CLIMAP) [1981]. The zonal belt of minimum SST seasonality between 2degrees and 6degreesN suggests that the LGM caloric equator occupied the same latitude as today. In contrast to the CLIMAP reconstruction| the glacial cooling of the tropical east Atlantic upwelling belt reached up to 6degrees-8degreesC during Northern Hemisphere summer. Differences between these SIMMAX-based and published U37(k)- and Mg/Ca-based equatorial SST records are ascribed to strong SST seasonalities and SST signals that were produced by different planktic species groups during different seasons. 2801,2003,2,4,Global amphibian declines: sorting the hypotheses,Reports of malformed amphibians and global amphibian declines have led to public concern| particularly because amphibians are thought to be indicator species of overall environmental health. The topic also draws scientific attention because there is no obvious| simple answer to the question of what is causing amphibian declines? Complex interactions of several anthropogenic factors are probably at work| and understanding amphibian declines may thus serve as a model for understanding species declines in general. While we have fewer answers than we would like| there are six leading hypotheses that we sort into two classes. For class I hypotheses| alien species| over-exploitation and land use change| we have a good understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying declines; these causes have affected amphibian populations negatively for more than a century. However| the question remains as to whether the magnitude of these negative effects increased in the 1980s| as scientists began to notice a global decline of amphibians. Further| remedies for these problems are not simple. For class II hypotheses| global change (including UV radiation and global climate change)| contaminants and emerging infectious diseases we have a poor| but improving understanding of how each might cause declines. Class II factors involve complex and subtle mechanistic underpinnings| with probable interactions among multiple ecological and evolutionary variables. They may also interact with class I hypotheses. Suspected mechanisms associated with class II hypotheses are relatively recent| dating from at least the middle of the 20th century. Did these causes act independently or in concert with pre-existing negative forces of class I hypotheses to increase the rate of amphibian declines to a level that drew global attention? We need more studies that connect the suspected mechanisms underlying both classes of hypotheses with quantitative changes in amphibian population sizes and species numbers. An important step forward in this task is clarifying the hypotheses and conditions under which the various causes operate alone or together. 6161,2003,4,4,Global atmospheric black carbon inferred from AERONET,AERONET| a network of well calibrated sunphotometers| provides data on aerosol optical depth and absorption optical depth at >250 sites around the world. The spectral range of AERONET allows discrimination between constituents that absorb most strongly in the UV region| such as soil dust and organic carbon| and the more ubiquitously absorbing black carbon (BC). AERONET locations| primarily continental| are not representative of the global mean| but they can be used to calibrate global aerosol climatologies produced by tracer transport models. We find that the amount of BC in current climatologies must be increased by a factor of 2-4 to yield best agreement with AERONET| in the approximation in which BC is externally mixed with other aerosols. The inferred climate forcing by BC| regardless of whether it is internally or externally mixed| is approximate to1 W/m(2)| most of which is probably anthropogenic. This positive forcing (warming) by BC must substantially counterbalance cooling by anthropogenic reflective aerosols. Thus| especially if reflective aerosols such as sulfates are reduced| it is important to reduce BC to minimize global warming. 2729,2003,2,4,Global climate change and mammalian species diversity in US national parks,National parks and bioreserves are key conservation tools used to protect species and their habitats within the confines of fixed political boundaries. This inflexibility may be their "Achilles' heel" as conservation tools in the face of emerging global-scale environmental problems such as climate change. Global climate change| brought about by rising levels of greenhouse gases| threatens to alter the geographic distribution of many habitats and their component species. With these changes comes great uncertainty about the future ability of parks and protected areas to meet their conservation mandates. We report here on an analysis aimed at assessing the extent of mammalian species turnover that may be experienced in eight selected U.S. national parks if climate change causes mammalian species within the continental U.S. to relocate to new geographic locations. Due to species losses of up to 20% and drastic influxes of new species| national parks are not likely to meet their mandate of protecting current biodiversity within park boundaries. This approach represents a conservative prognosis. As species assemblages change| new interactions between species may lead to less predictable indirect effects of climate change| increasing the toll beyond that found in this study. 2755,2003,2,4,Global climate change and reindeer: effects of winter weather on the autumn weight and growth of calves,Reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus)| which constitute a biological resource of vital importance for the physical and cultural survival of Arctic residents| and inhabit extremely seasonal environments| have received little attention in the global change debate. We investigated how body weight and growth rate of reindeer calves were affected by large-scale climatic variability [measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index] and density in one population in central Norway. Body weights of calves in summer and early winter| as well as their growth rate (summer to early winter)| were significantly influenced by density and the NAO index when cohorts were in utero. Males were heavier and had higher absolute growth than females| but there was no evidence that preweaning condition of male and female calves were influenced differently by the NAO winter index. Increasing NAO index had a negative effect on calves' body weight and growth rate. Increasing density significantly reduced body weight and growth rate of calves| and accentuated the effect of the NAO winter index. Winters with a higher NAO index are thus severe for reindeer calves in this area and their effects are associated with nutritional stress experienced by the dams during pregnancy or immediately after calving. Moreover| increased density may enhance intra-specific competition and limits food available at the individual level within cohorts. We conclude that if the current pattern of global warming continues| with greater change occurring in northern latitudes and during winter as is predicted| reduced body weight of reindeer calves may be a consequence in areas where winters with a high NAO index are severe. This will likely have an effect on the livelihood of many northern indigenous peoples| both economically and culturally. 2723,2003,2,3,Global estimation of crop productivity and the impacts of global warming by GIS and EPIC integration,In this paper| a new methodology for global estimation of crop productivity is proposed. This methodology integrates Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) model with Geographic Information System (GIS) and Inference Engine (IE) technique. EPIC was developed by USDA to analyze the relationship between soil erosion and agricultural productivity just at field level. With the integration of GIS| EPIC can be extended to the application of global or regional level. In this integration| IE is developed to determine possible crop combinations| the optimum starting and ending dates of growth cycle for each crop type and grid cell| in order to ensure best possible crop yields for both rain-fed and irrigated conditions. A case of global crop productivity estimation is tested with GIS-based EPIC in 2000. National averages are computed to be comparable to yields in FAO statistics. The comparison indicates that the GIS-based EPIC is able to simulate crop productivity at global level. In addition| with the global climate change data provided by the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from the first version of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM1)| GIS-based EPIC is run for scenarios of future climate in the year of 2010| 2020| 2030| 2040| and 2050 to predict the effects of global warming on main crop yields. Results show the global warming will be harmful for most of the countries| and an efficient adaptation to alternative climates tends to reduce the damages. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6296,2003,3,3,Global influences on rangelands of Australia,Globalisation is a key pressure affecting the current and future use of the rangelands of Australia. While primary producers often perceive an insatiable demand for food as a guarantee of business success| declining population growth rates and high levels of productivity improvement in world food production are reducing the importance of food and fibre from the rangelands. This| combined with significant changes in consumer demands| is driving rangeland producers to meet market specifications for quality| safety| animal welfare and sustainability. Sustainability is a particular challenge with the rangelands certain to be affected by global warming and the politics and strategies required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Currently the rangelands produce a higher proportion of greenhouse gases compared with their contribution to the economy. However| they also provide an opportunity for carbon sequestration. While international trade liberalisation has been of advantage to the grazing industries in the rangelands| increased global awareness of the Australian rangelands| facilitated by the communications revolution| is encouraging alternative uses including tourism| existence value and other conservation and biodiversity management uses. The growing concept of multi-functionality will also impact on the rangelands as international government programs continue to encourage non-commercial| surplus production of food. These influences are forcing major changes in the way land is used and what it produces. 6026,2003,5,3,Global methane emission through mud volcanoes and its past and present impact on the Earth's climate,Mud volcanism is an abundant| global phenomenon whereby fluid-rich| low-density sediments extrude both on land and offshore. Methane| which generally exceeds 90 vol% of the gas phase| is emitted at high rates during and after emplacement of the mud domes and is known for its high global warming potential (GWP). This comprehensive estimate of the annual contribution of mud volcano degassing assesses the significance of mud volcanism for the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. A first-order estimate for the earlier| pre-anthropogenic volume of methane released through mud volcanoes further supports their profound effect on the Earth's climate since at least the Paleozoic (570 Ma). 6018,2003,2,4,Global potential soil erosion with reference to land use and climate changes,A GIS-based RUSLE model is employed to study the global soil erosion potential for viewing the present situation| analysing changes over the past century| and projecting future trends with reference to global changes in land use and climate. Scenarios considered in the study include historical| present and future conditions of cropland and climate. This research gives the first overview of the global situation of soil erosion potential considering the previous century as well as the present and future. Present soil erosion potential is estimated to be about 0.38 mm year(-1) for the globe| with Southeast Asia found to be the most seriously affected region in the world. It is estimated that nearly 60% of present soil erosions are induced by human activity. With development of cropland in the last century| soil erosion potential is estimated to have increased by about 17%. Global warming might significantly increase the potential for soil erosion| and the regions with the same increasing trend of precipitation and population might face much more serious problems related to soil erosion in the future. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons| Ltd. 6088,2003,2,3,Global warming and potential changes in fish habitat in US streams,To project potential habitat changes of 57 fish species under global warming| their suitable thermal habitat at 764 stream gaging stations in the contiguous United States was studied. Global warming was specified by air temperature increases projected by the Canadian Centre of Climate Modelling General Circulation Model for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The aquatic thermal regime at each gaging station was related to air temperature using a nonlinear stream temperature/air temperature relationship. Suitable fish thermal habitat was assumed to be constrained by both maximum temperature and minimum temperature tolerances. For cold water fishes with a 0degreesC lower temperature constraint| the number of stations with suitable thermal habitat under a 2 x CO2 climate scenario is projected to decrease by 36%| and for cool water fishes by 15%. These changes are associated with a northward shift of the range. For warm water fishes with a 2degreesC lower temperature constraint| the potential number of stations with suitable thermal habitat is projected to increase by 31%. 6100,2003,2,4,Global warming and the demand for water,More than a decade has passed since the International Panel on Climatic Change began to study (in depth) the possibility that the global climate was changing. Increasing attention is also being paid to the impact of such changes on society in general| and on the planning and management of water resources. Not least among the water resources planning problems is the estimation of the changes which might occur in public water-supply demands. Such changes are notoriously difficult to evaluate| particularly in the UK where most domestic premises remain un-metered. Elsewhere| econometric models involving climatic parameters as independent variables have had some success| but a recent application of this approach in the UK was unable to identify particular parameters which had a consistent influence over the summer period. This lack of success might be partly caused by the public reaction to summer conditions being a complex function of several parameters| such as duration of sunshine| temperature and rainfall. This complexity has already been recognised by climatologists| who have devised forms of summer indices involving weighted combinations of climatic variables to determine how 'good' or 'bad' a particular period might be perceived by the general public. The use of one such summer index to explain the variations in an index of demand for public water supply in the London supply area has shown that simple and consistent relationships can be derived. Application of these relationships to scenarios of changes in temperature| sunshine duration and rainfall totals for the year 2050 shows an increase of 0.6- 2.9 index points in water-supply demand over the 1950-1990 period average. 6251,2003,2,3,Global warming and the export of dissolved organic carbon from boreal peatlands,Peatlands occupy approximately 15% of boreal and sub-arctic regions| contain approximately one third of the world's soil carbon pool| and supply most of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) entering boreal lakes and rivers and the Arctic Ocean. The high latitudes occupied by these peatlands are expected to see the greatest amount of climatic warming in the next several decades. In addition to increasing temperatures| climatic change could also affect the position of the water-table level and discharge from these peatlands. Changes in temperature| water tables| and discharge could affect delivery of DOC to downstream ecosystems where it exerts significant control over productivity| biogeochemical cycles| and attenuation of visible and UV radiation. We experimentally warmed and controlled water tables while measuring discharge in a factorial experiment in large mesocosms containing peat monoliths and intact plant communities from a bog and fen to determine the effects of climate change on DOC budgets. We show that the DOC budget is controlled largely by changes in discharge rather than by any effect of warming or position of the water-table level on DOC concentrations. Furthermore| we identify a critical discharge rate in bogs and fens for which the DOC budget switches from net export to net retention. We also demonstrate an exponential increase in trace gas CO2-C and CH4-C emissions coincident with increased retention of dissolved organic carbon from boreal peatlands. 6046,2003,2,3,Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability,The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in global climate. Theoretical and palaeoclimatic evidence points to the possibility of rapid changes in the strength of the THC| including a possible quasi-permanent shutdown. The climatic impacts of such a shutdown would be severe| including a cooling throughout the Northern Hemisphere| which in some regions is greater in magnitude than the changes expected from global warming in the next 50 years. Other climatic impacts would likely include a severe alteration of rainfall patterns in the tropics| the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Modelling the future behaviour of the THC focuses on two key questions. (i) Is a gradual weakening of the THC likely in response to global warming| and if so by how much? (ii) Are there thresholds beyond which rapid or irreversible changes in the THC are likely? Most projections of the response of the THC to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest a gradual weakening over the twenty-first century. However| there is a wide variation between different models over the size of the weakening. Rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability (but high-impact) outcome; however| some climate models of intermediate complexity do show the possibility of such events. The question of the future of the THC is beset with conceptual| modelling and observational uncertainties| but some current and planned projects show promise to make substantial progress in tackling these uncertainties in future. 6021,2003,4,4,Global warming trend of mean tropospheric temperature observed by satellites,We have analyzed the global tropospheric temperature for 1978 to 2002 with the use of passive microwave sounding data from the NOAA series of polar orbiters and the Earth Observing System Aqua satellite. To accurately retrieve the climatic trend| we combined the satellite data with an analytic model of temperature that contains three different time scales: a linear trend and functions that de. ne the seasonal and diurnal cycles. Our analysis shows a trend of +0.22degrees to 0.26degreesC per 10 years| consistent with the global warming trend derived from surface meteorological stations. 6188,2003,4,4,Global warming versus ozone depletion: failure and success in North America,The success of ozone depletion as a social problem is used to examine and understand the relative failure of global warming. Starting with the (aborted) 'hot crisis' of the Greenhouse summer of 1988| this paper tries to show why| despite dire scientific warning| advantages in claims-making| and the perceived emergence of strange weather| global warming consistently obtained lesser outcomes. Whereas global warming is a complex and uncertain scientific issue| the ozone hole was associated and resonated with easy-to-understand bridging metaphors derived from the popular culture. The latter problem not only gave rise to a hot crisis| but was also caught up in a cultural whirlwind-a rapidly evolving and progressive sequence of dynamic and often surprising events that surge through a variety of public arenas with a strong conversational and practical presence. Effectively| ozone loss provided a sense of concrete risk with both strong emotional overtones and everyday relevance for talk and action. Global warming| in contrast| is not amenable to bridging metaphors and did not lend itself to a cultural whirlwind. 5974,2003,3,3,Global warming| uncertainty and endogenous technical change,What impact does ecological uncertainty have on agents' decisions concerning domestic emissions abatement| physical investments| and R&D expenditures? How sensitive are the answers to these questions when we move from exogenous to endogenous technical change? To investigate these issues we modify the ETC-RICE model described in Buonanno et al. ( 2001) by embedding in it a hazard rate function as in Bosello and Moretto ( 1999). With this model at hand we run numerical optimisations focusing our attention on the control variables of the representative agents| i.e.| domestic abatement rate| investments in physical capital| and R&D spending| as well as on the endogenous patterns of GDP level and CO2 emissions. Our results show that uncertainty strongly influences agents behaviour; in particular| agents slow down their emissions in order to maintain a more sustainable growth path. In addition| R&D expenditures trigger the "engine of growth" exclusively when environmental technical change is formalized in an endogenous fashion. However| even if environmental uncertainty may stimulate technical change| long-run growth it turns out to be negatively affected by the former| as also predicted by Clarke and Reed ( 1994) Tsur and Zemel (1996) and Bosello and Moretto (1999). 6203,2003,2,7,Global warming: Are we confusing cause and effect?,The writers show that the present-day global warming is not due to the increase in the volume of greenhouse gases| but rather to the increased solar activity. It appears that we are at the rising phase of the latest 80-90 year cycle of the solar activity. At the present time| there is no sound justification for the cut in the man-induced carbon dioxide emission as required by the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. The rising global temperature drives large volumes of CO2 from the ocean water into the atmosphere. Thus "cause" and "effect" of global warming phenomenon are misunderstood by many scientists.
5996,2003,2,4,Grassland responses to three years of elevated temperature| CO(2)| precipitation| and N deposition,Global climate and atmospheric changes may interact in their effects on the diversity and composition of natural communities. We followed responses of an annual grassland to three years of all possible combinations of experimentally elevated CO(2) (+300| muL/L)| warming (+80 W/m(2)| + similar to1degreesC)| nitrogen deposition (+7 g N.m(-2).yr(-1))|and precipitation (+50%). Responses of the 10 most common plant species to global changes and to interannual variability were weak but sufficiently consistent within functional groups to drive clearer responses at the functional group level. The dominant functional groups (annual grasses and forbs) showed distinct production and abundance responses to individual global changes. After three years| N deposition suppressed plant diversity| forb production| and forb abundance in association with enhanced grass production. Elevated precipitation enhanced plant diversity| forb production| and forb abundance but affected grasses little. Warming increased forb production and abundance but did not strongly affect diversity or grass response. Elevated CO(2) reduced diversity with little effect on relative abundance or production of forbs and grasses. Realistic combinations of global changes had small diversity effects but more marked effects on the relative dominance of forbs and grasses. The largest change in relative functional group abundance (+50% forbs) occurred under the combination of elevated CO(2) + warming + precipitation| which will likely affect much of California in the future. Strong interannual variability in diversity| individual. species abundances| and functional group abundances indicated that in our system| (1) responses after three years were not constrained by lags in community response| (2) individual species were more sensitive to interannual variability and extremes than to mean changes in environmental and resource conditions| and (3) simulated global changes interacted with interannual variability to produce responses of varying magnitude and even direction among years. Relative abundance of forbs| the most speciose group in the community| ranged after three years from >30% under elevated CO(2) + warming + precipitation to <12% under N deposition: While opposing production responses at the ecosystem level by different functional groups may buffet responses such as net primary production (NPP) change| these shifts in relative dominance could influence ecosystem processes such as nutrient cycling and|NPP via differences between grasses and forbs in tissue chemistry| allocation| phenology| and productivity. 6287,2003,3,3,Greenhouse gas emissions and soil indicators four years after manure and compost applications,Understanding how carbon| nitrogen| and key soil attributes affect gas emissions from soil is crucial for alleviating their undesirable residual effects that can linger for years after termination of manure and compost applications. This study was conducted to evaluate the emission Of soil CO2| N2O| and CH4 and soil C and N indicators four years after manure and compost application had stopped. Experimental plots were treated with annual synthetic N fertilizer (FRT)| annual and biennial manure (MN1 and MN2| respectively)| and compost (CP1 and CP2| respectively) from 1992 to 1995 based on removal of 151 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) by continuous corn (Zea mays L.). The control (CTL) plots received no input. After 1995| only the FRT plots received N fertilizer in the spring of 1999. In 1999| the emissions Of CO2 were similar between control and other treatments. The average annual carbon input in the CTL and FRT plots were similar to soil CO2 C emission (4.4 and 5.1 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1)| respectively). Manure and compost resulted in positive C and N balances in the soil four years after application. Fluxes of CH4-C and N2O-N were nearly zero| which indicated that the residual effects of manure and compost four years after application had no negative influence on soil C and N storage and global warming. Residual effects of compost and manure resulted in 20 to 40% higher soil microbial biomass C| 42 to 74% higher potentially mineralizable N| and 0.5 unit higher pH compared with the FRT treatment. Residual effects of manure and compost on CO2| N2O| and CH4 emissions were minimal and their benefits on soil C and N indicators were more favorable than that of N fertilizer. 6163,2003,3,4,Greenhouse gas implications of household energy technology in Kenya,Linkages between household energy technology| indoor air pollution| and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have become increasingly important in understanding the local and global environmental and health effects of domestic energy use. We report on GHG emissions from common Kenyan wood and charcoal cookstoves. Our estimations are based on 29 d of measurements under the conditions of actual use in 19 rural Kenyan households. Carbon monoxide (CO)| particulate matter (PM10)| combustion phase| and fuel mass were measured continuously or in short intervals in day-long monitoring sessions. Emissions of pollutants other than CO and PM10 were estimated using emissions ratios from published literature. We estimated that the daily carbon emissions from charcoal stoves (5202 +/- 2257 g of C: mean SO) were lower than both traditional open fire (5990 +/- 1843 g of C) and improved ceramic woodstoves (5905 +/- 1553 g of C)| but the differences were not statistically significant. However| when each pollutant was weighted using a 20-yr global warming potential| charcoal stoves emitted larger amounts of GHGs than either type of woodstove (9850 +/- 4600 g of C for charcoal as compared to 8310 +/- 2400 and 9649 +/- 2207 for open fire and ceramic woodstoves| respectively; differences not statistically significant). Non-CO2 emissions from charcoal stoves were 5549 +/- 2700 g of C in 20-yr CO2 equivalent units| while emissions were 2860 +/- 680 and 4711 +/- 919 for three-stone fires and improved ceramic stoves| respectively| with statistically significant results between charcoal and wood stoves. Therefore in a sustainable fuel-cycle (i.e.| excluding CO2)| charcoal stoves have larger emissions than woodstoves. When the emissions from charcoal production| measured in a previous study| were included in the assessment| the disparity between the GHG emissions from charcoal and firewood increased significantly| with non-CO2 GHG emissions factors (g of C/kg of fuel burned) for charcoal production and consumption 6-13 times higher than emissions from woodstoves. Policy implications and options for environment and public health are discussed. 2749,2003,2,3,Growth and biomass allocation of shrub and grass seedlings in response to predicted changes in precipitation seasonality,Anthropogenic emissions contribute to an annual 0.5% increase in atmospheric CO2. As global CO2 levels increase| regional precipitation patterns will likely be altered. Our primary objective was to determine whether a reduction in summer precipitation or an increase in winter/spring precipitation| predicted by global climate change models| will favor the establishment of C-4 grasses or C-3 shrubs in southern savannas. Our secondary objective was to determine how defoliation and microsite light availability interact with altered precipitation regimes to influence grass and shrub seedling growth and biomass allocation patterns. Seedlings of 3 shrub species (Prosopis glandulosa var. glandulosa| Acacia berlandieri| and A. greggii var. wrightii) and 3 grass species (Aristida purpurea var. wrightii| Setaria texana| and Stipa leucotricha) were watered based on probable changes in precipitation in a CO2 enriched atmosphere (0.6| 0.8| and 1.0 current ambient summer precipitation and 1.0| 1.15| and 1.30 current winter/spring precipitation). Seedlings were defoliated at 3 levels (non-defoliated| single defoliation| and repeated defoliation) within 2 levels of microsite light availability (100 and 50% ambient). Defoliation significantly reduced total shrub and grass seedling biomass. Reducing light availability decreased shrub seedling root: shoot ratio| but total biomass was not significantly affected. Grass seedling biomass and root: shoot ratio decreased when light availability was reduced. Changing the seasonality of precipitation by reducing summer rainfall or increasing winter/spring rainfall did not significantly influence growth or biomass allocation of grass and shrub seedlings in a semiarid savanna. Microsite variations in defoliation intensity and light availability influence seedling growth and biomass allocation more than changing seasonality of precipitation. Shrub and grass seedling establishment and growth on semiarid rangelands are already limited by summer precipitation| so a further reduction as proposed by climate change models will have a limited impact on seedling dynamics. 6030,2003,2,4,Has coral bleaching delayed our understanding of fundamental aspects of coral-dinoflagellate symbioses?,Tropical reef corals are ecologically important examples of mutualistic symbioses whose success is defined by the interwoven biologies of their symbiotic partners. These associations are exquisitely regulated| yet the equilibrium is sensitive to environmental disturbances| which cause a breakdown in symbiotic communication| loss of algae from the host| concomitant paling of coral coloration known as coral bleaching| and| if the conditions persist| death of the coral. Faced with the prospect of catastrophic coral mortality associated with global warming and related environmental shifts| researchers have focused their efforts on coral bleaching; although significant progress has been made in this area| understanding of the basic biology of these associations remains poor. Here we discuss several issues that have potentially contributed to this knowledge gap and conclude that without a sound understanding of the basic biology of these important symbioses| it will be very difficult to elucidate the mechanisms that drive coral bleaching. 6007,2003,4,4,High-resolution simulations of global climate| part 2: effects of increased greenhouse cases,We report results from the highest-resolution simulations of global warming yet performed with an atmospheric general circulation model. We compare the climatic response to increased greenhouse gases of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) climate model| CCM3| at T42 and T170 resolutions (horizontal grid spacing of 300 and 75 km respectively). All simulations use prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST). Simulations of the climate of 2100 AD use SSTs based on those from NCAR coupled model| Climate System Model (CSM). We find that the global climate sensitivity and large-scale patterns of climate change are similar at T42 and T170. However| there are important regional scale differences that arise due to better representation of topography and other factors at high resolution. Caution should be exercised in interpreting specific features in our results both because we have performed climate simulations using a single atmospheric general circulation model and because we used with prescribed sea surface temperatures rather than interactive ocean and sea-ice models. 6290,2003,2,4,Historical distribution and abundance of Phragmites australis at Long Point| Lake Erie| Ontario,Recent expansion of Phragmites australis throughout many Great Lakes wetlands has caused concern among resource managers because it is thought to degrade waterfowl habitat and reduce biodiversity. Wetlands at Long Point| Lake Erie| have some of the most important habitats for staging waterfowl on the Great Lakes and anecdotal evidence suggests that Phragmites has been expanding rapidly in some of these wetlands. To make informed management decisions| a better understanding of historical changes in distribution and abundance of this species is needed| as well as the ability to identify which plant species/communities Phragmites is replacing. Long Point's wetland communities were digitally mapped from aerial photographs from 1945 to 1999. The aerial extent of Phragmites stands was measured by digitizing vegetation boundaries| ground-truthing| and analyzing the data using a GIS. A geometric growth formula was used to determine the intrinsic rate of change of Phragmites over time. Phragmites abundance fluctuated throughout the period (1945: 4 ha; 1955: 7.7 ha; 1964: 69 ha; 1968: 3.6 ha; 1972: 15.1 ha; 1978: 17.7 ha; 1985: < 4 ha; 1995: 18 ha; 1999: 137 ha)| but its abundance increased exponentially between 1995 and 1999 (137 ha; intrinsic rate of growth in area = +0.50/yr). The species/communities that were most often replaced by Phragmites between 1995 and 1999 were Typha spp. (33.8%)| marsh meadow (31%)| sedge/grass hummock (10.8%)| and other mixed emergents (9.6%). Of 31 stands analyzed within the study area| 28 (90%) were of a non-native strain of Phragmites australis (haplotype M) that has been rapidly expanding throughout the Atlantic region of the United States. We suggest that the recent rapid expansion of Phragmites at Long Point is the direct result of this exotic invasion| and that it has been facilitated by both declines in Great Lakes water levels and increases in ambient air temperatures; anthropogenic and natural disturbances have possibly also contributed. Given the invasive nature of the exotic genotype| combined with future global warming predictions| Phragmites probably will continue to rapidly expand throughout lower Great Lakes coastal wetlands. 5978,2003,2,3,Historical evolution of flooding damage on a USA/Quebec River Basin,There is a general belief in the public eye that extreme events such as floods are becoming more and more common. This paper explores this hypothesis by examining the historical evolution of annual expected flooding damage on the Chateauguay River Basin| located at the border between the United States and the province of Quebec| Canada. A database of basin land use was constructed for the years 1930 and 1995 to assess anthropogenic changes and their impact on the basin's hydrology. The progressive modification of the likelihood of a flooding event over the same period was then investigated using homogeneity and statistical tests on available hydrometric data. The evolution of the annual expected flooding damage was then evaluated using a coupled hydrologic/hydraulic simulator linked to a damage analysis model. The simulator and model were used to estimate flooding damage over a wide range of flooding return periods| for conditions prevailing in 1963 and 1995. Results of the analysis reveal the absence of any increasing or decreasing trend in the historical occurrence of flooding events. However| a general increase in the annual expected flooding damage was observed for all studied river sections. This increase is linked to an historical increase in damages for a given flooding event| and is the result of unbridled construction and development within the flood zone. To assess for future trends| this study also examined the potential impacts linked to the anticipated global warming. Results indicate that a significant increase in seasonal flooding events and annual expected flooding damage is possible over the next century. In fact| what is now considered a 100-year flooding event for the summer/fall season could become a ten-year event by the end of this century. This shows that potential future impacts linked to climate change should be considered now by engineers| land planners| and decision makers. This is especially critical if a design return period is part of the decision making process. 2707,2003,5,4,Holocene yellow silt layers and the paleoclimate event of 8200 a BP in Lop Nur| Xinjiang| NW China,Many yellow silt layers have been identified in the Holocene sediments in the last lake of Lop Nur (playa)| Xinjiang| northwestern China. Statistics of drill-hole cores have revealed more than one hundred layers| which exhibit regularity in time sequence. Study has further verified that these yellow silt layers were deposited through eolian processes. The time-frequency distribution diagram shows an obvious peak occurring at about 8200 a B.P.| which is consistent with the dry| windy and cold climate event occurring at 8200 a in other places around the world. Therefore| this event is regarded as a response to the global climate change. 6033,2003,2,4,How important is climate? Effects of warming| nutrient addition and fish on phytoplankton in shallow lake microcosms,1. Climate is changing. Predictions are for at least a 3 degreesC rise in mean temperature in northern Europe over the next century. Existing severe impacts of nutrients and inappropriate fish stocking in freshwater systems remain. 2. Effects of warming by 3 degreesC above ambient| nutrient addition and the presence or absence of sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus were studied in experimental microcosms dominated by submerged plants| mimicking shallow lake ecosystems. 3. Warming had considerably smaller effects on the phytoplankton community than did fish and nutrients. It had very minor effects on chlorophyll a and total phytoplankton biovolume. However| it significantly decreased the biovolumes of Cryptophyceae (a major component in the controls) and Dinophyceae. Contrary to expectation| warming did not increase the abundance of blue-green algae (cyanophytes). Warming decreased the abundances of Cryptomonas erosa ( Cryptophyceae) and Oocystis pusilla (Chlorophycota) and increased those of two other green algae| Tetraedron minimum and Micractinium pusillum. It had no effect on a further 17 species that were predominant in a community of about 90 species. 4. Fish and nutrients| either together or separately| generally increased the crops of most of the 21 abundant species and of the algal groups. Exceptions were for diatoms and chrysophytes| which were very minor components of the communities. Fish| but neither nutrients nor warming| increased the number of species of phytoplankton detected. This was probably through removal of zooplankton grazers| and parallels terrestrial studies where the presence of top predators| by controlling herbivores| leads to increased plant diversity. 5. There was no particular pattern in the taxonomy or biological characteristics of those species affected by the treatments. In particular| there was no link between organism size (a surrogate for many important biological features of phytoplankton species) and the effects of warming| nutrient addition or presence or absence of fish. However| all species were relatively small and potentially vulnerable to grazing. 6. Synthesis and applications. The results suggest that fears of an increasing abundance of cyanophytes with current projections of global warming may be unrealized| at least in shallow unstratified lakes still dominated by macrophytes. However| they emphasize that eutrophication and fish manipulations remain very important impact factors that determine the abundance of phytoplankton and subsequent problems caused by large growths. 6023,2003,2,4,How often can we expect a record event?,This study applies a simple framework for analysing the incidence of record events. A test of this method on the global mean temperature yields results consistent with a global warming| where record-warm events are more frequent than for a stationary series. The record event analysis suggests that the number of record-warm monthly global mean temperatures is higher than expected| and that the number of record events in the absolute monthly maximum and minimum temperatures in the Nordic countries is slightly higher than expected from a null hypothesis of a stationary behaviour. Because the different station series are not strictly independent| it is difficult to resolve whether there is a significant trend in the warmest absolute monthly minimum temperatures in the Nordic countries. The behaviour of the maximum monthly 24 h precipitation is not distinguishable from the null hypothesis that the series consists of independent and identically distributed random variables. 6197,2003,4,2,How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle?,Future climate change induced by atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases is believed to have a large impact on the global carbon cycle. Several offline studies focusing either on the marine or on the terrestrial carbon cycle highlighted such potential effects. Two recent online studies| using ocean-atmosphere general circulation models coupled to land and ocean carbon cycle models| investigated in a consistent way the feedback between the climate change and the carbon cycle. These two studies used observed anthropogenic CO2 emissions for the 1860-1995 period and IPCC scenarios for the 1995-2100 period to force the climate-carbon cycle models. The study from the Hadley Centre group showed a very large positive feedback| atmospheric CO2 reaching 980 ppmv by 2100 if future climate impacts on the carbon cycle| but only about 700 ppmv if the carbon cycle is included but assumed to be insensitive to the climate changed The IPSL coupled climate carbon cycle model simulated a much smaller positive feedback: climate impact on the carbon cycle leads by 2100 to an addition of less than 100 ppmv in the atmosphere. Here we perform a detailed feedback analysis to show that such differences are due to two key processes that are still poorly constrained in these coupled models: first Southern Ocean circulation| which primarily controls the geochemical uptake of CO2 and second vegetation and soil carbon response to global warming. Our analytical analysis reproduces remarkably the results obtained by the fully coupled models. Also it allows us to identify that| amongst the two processes mentioned above| the latter (the land response to global warming) is the one that essentially explains the differences between the IPSL and the Hadley results. 6143,2003,4,3,How to define clean vehicles? Environmental impact rating of vehicles,How to compare the environmental damage caused by vehicles with different fuels and drive trains? This paper describes a methodology to assess the environmental impact of vehicles| using different approaches| and evaluating their benefits and limitations. Rating systems are analysed as tools to compare the environmental impact of vehicles| allowing decision makers to dedicate their financial and non-financial policies and support measures in function of the ecological damage. The paper is based on the "Clean Vehicles" research project| commissioned by the Brussels Capital Region via the BIM-IBGE (Brussels Institute for the Conservation of the Environment) (Van Mierlo et al.| 2001). The Vrije Universiteit Brussel (ETEC) and the Universite Libre de Bruxelles (CEESE) have jointly carried out the workprogramme. The most important results of this project are illustrated in this paper. First an overview of environmental| economical and technical characteristics of the different alternative fuels and drive trains is given. Afterward the basic principles to identify the environmental impact of cars are described. An outline of the considered emissions and their environmental impact leads to the definition of the calculation method| named Ecoscore. A rather simple and pragmatic approach would be stating that all alternative fuelled vehicles (LPG| CNG| EV| HEV| etc.) can be considered as 'clean'. Another basic approach is considering as 'clean' all vehicles satisfying a stringent emission regulation like EURO IV or EEV. Such approaches however don't tell anything about the real environmental damage of the vehicles. In the paper we describe "how should the environmental impact of vehicles be defined?"| including parameters affecting the emissions of vehicles and their influence on human beings and on the environment and "how could it be defined ?"| taking into account the availability of accurate and reliable data. We take into account different damages (acid rain| photochemical air pollution| global warming| noise| etc.) and their impacts on several receptors like human beings (e.g.: cancer| respiratory diseases| etc); ecosystems| or buildings. The presented methodology is based on a kind of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) in which the contribution of all emissions to a certain damage are considered (e.g. using Exposure-Response damage function). The emissions will include oil extraction| transportation refinery| electricity production| distribution| (Well-to-Wheel approach)| as well as the emission due to the production| use and dismantling of the vehicle (Cradle-to-Grave approach). The different damages will be normalized to be able to make a comparison. Hence a reference value (determined by the reference vehicle chosen) will be defined as a target value (the normalized value will thus measure a kind of Distance to Target). The contribution of the different normalized damages to a single value "EcoScore" will be based on a panel weighting method. Some examples of the calculation of the Ecoscore for different alternative fuels and drive trains will be calculated as an illustration of the methodology. 2793,2003,2,4,How will global climate change affect risks from long-range transport of persistent organic pollutants?,Climate change and climate variability affect risk from contaminants by changing exposure to chemicals| either through the alteration of pathways or through alteration of environmental concentrating mechanisms. The alteration of pathways is affected by changing the balance between transport and deposition. Although the influence of temperature on multimedia partitioning can be modelled successfully| estimating alteration in other climate components such as distribution and form of precipitation provides a much greater challenge. To understand how climate change affects contaminant concentrations| we distinguish two types of environmental concentrating processes-solvent switching and solvent depletion. The first process| which is simply chemical partitioning| runs spontaneously toward equilibrium. This process alone can explain hemispheric-scale distributions of hexachlorocyclohexane| which partitions strongly into water| and high concentrations of organochlorines at the bottom of aquatic foodwebs. The latter process involves the maintenance of contaminant burdens during the loss of solvent| with the aquatic foodweb providing one of the better-known examples. Solvent reducing processes can produce contaminant concentrations well above thermodynamic equilibrium with a number of important examples provided by phase changes in water (freezing| snow melting). These solvent-reducing processes| which are poorly studied| provide some of the best circumstances for climate change to produce alteration in persistent organic pollutants exposure pathways. 6019,2003,2,4,Hydrological regime analysis of the Selenge River basin| Mongolia,Arid and semi-arid regions are very vulnerable to environmental changes. Climate change studies indicate that the environment in such areas will steadily deteriorate with global warming; inland lakes will shrink and desert areas will expand. Mongolia is a landlocked country in north-central Asia that contains a unique ecological system consisting of taiga| steppe| and desert from north to south. The Selenge River basin (280000 km(2)) in northern Mongolia is a semi-arid region underlain by permafrost| between latitudes 46 and 52degreesN| and longitudes 96 and 109degreesE. The issue of sustainable development of the basin is very important owing to its limited natural resources| including fresh water| forest| and rangeland. To examine the water cycle processes in the basin| a hydrological analysis was carried out using a simple scheme for the interaction between the land surface and atmosphere (big-leaf model) coupled to a hydrological model for the period 1988-92 to estimate the hydrological regime of the basin. Annual precipitation in this period averaged 298 mm| ranging from 212 to 352 mm at a 1degrees x 1degrees resolution based on data from 10 gauges| and the estimated annual evapotranspiration averaged 241 turn| ranging between 153 and 300 mm. This indicates that evapotranspiration accounts for the overwhelming majority of the annual precipitation| averaging 81% and ranging between 64 and 96%. The annual potential evapotranspiration in the basin averaged 2009 mm; the ratio of evapotranspiration (actual to potential evapotranspiration) was 0.12 and the wetness index (annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration) was 0.15. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons| Ltd. 2819,2003,5,4,Ice-rafted detritus evidence from Ar-40/Ar-39 ages of individual hornblende grains for evolution of the eastern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet since 43 C-14 ky,During the last glacial interval| the North Atlantic ice sheets expanded and contracted in approximate synchronicity with orbitally forced global climate change. Variation in ice rafted detritus content in North Atlantic marine sediment cores record the waxing and waning of glaciers| as well as the abrupt temperature changes at millennial time scales. The background variations of ice rafting are punctuated by Heinrich layers| which appear to record the catastrophic collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet through the Hudson Strait. The objective of this paper is to document the evolution of glaciation on Laurentia during the last 43 C-14 kyr. We present a provenance study based on Ar-40/Ar-39 dates of individual hornblende grains from 57 samples taken at 2 ern spacing between 4 and 134 cm from core V23-14 (43.4degreesN| 45.25degreesW| 3177 m). Sedimentation rates outside of the Heinrich layers are very low in this core| but the Heinrich layers are easily identified. Laurentide glaciation did not extend into the ocean south of 55degreesN until about 26 C-14 kyr| and retreated to the coastline or beyond by 14 C-14 kyr. Documenting the history of this major ice sheet has significant implications for understanding ice rafting sources in more distal locations where mixing among different ice sheets is likely. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 6131,2003,2,3,Impacts of global warming on changes in the East Asian monsoon and the related river discharge in a global time-slice experiment,Changes in the East Asian monsoon and the related river discharge under global warming conditions are investigated using 2 time-slice simulations of the IS92a scenario with a T106 atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM4) for 1971 to 1980 and 2041 to 2050. Daily runoff and drainage calculated by the land-surface scheme are used as input to a hydrological model to diagnose changes in the Yangtze River and Zhujiang River discharges. In the future climate| the simulated annual cycle of precipitation over the southeastern coastal area of China is systematically shifted about 1 mo ahead compared with the present-day climate| and the rainy season starts 1 mo earlier for the Yangtze River Valley and North China. In line with the surface-warming distribution change| the East Asian summer monsoon (EAM) flow strengthens. This causes increased precipitation in North China. In winter| the subtropical part of the EAM flow strengthens and leads to a large increase in rainfall over the EAM region. The discharges of the Zhujiang and Yangtze rivers in the future climate decrease in the late summer and autumn| to which both increased evaporation and an early retreat of the monsoon rainfall contribute. In the early and mid-summer| the Yangtze River discharge increases| mainly due to the large increase in precipitation in the preceding months| which has been stored in the catchment. 6064,2003,2,4,Impacts of warm winters and extreme rainstorms on the base consumption in a limed lake| southern Norway,The chemical composition of a limed take| the two main inlets and the outlet was monitored during a period of 3 years. The winters of 1991-1992 and 1992-1993 were unusually warm while the winter of 1993-1994 was more normal. The lake surface water was wind exposed in the warm winters and as a consequence of frequent turnovers the acid input from the catchment mixed with the whole lake water body. In the winter of 1993-1994| the lake was ice-covered for approximately 4 months. During this period the drainage water from the catchment flowed to the outlet of the lake in the upper 2-3 m of the water column and only some of the acid input was neutralised. This is compared to a complete neutralisation in the winter of 1992-1993. The in-lake loss of alkalinity during this warm winter was approximately 29 mueq/l (November-June) compared to approximately 7 mueq/l lakewater in 1993-1994. Acid drainage from the catchment induced by an extraordinary rainstorm with heavy sea-salt deposition contributed to the in-lake alkalinity consumption in spring 1993. As winter temperatures above 0degreesC and more frequent rainstorms may be common due to expected global warming| future increased lime consumption in-lakes may be projected in acidified areas as southern Norway. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6049,2003,2,4,Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21st century,[1] Two simulations of the 21st century climate have been carried out using| on the one hand| a coarse resolution climate general circulation model and| on the other hand| the same model coupled to a comprehensive model of the Greenland ice sheet. Both simulations display a gradual global warming up to 2080. In the experiment that includes an interactive ice sheet component| a strong and abrupt weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation occurs at the end of the 21st century. This feature is triggered by an enhanced freshwater input arising mainly from a partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet. As a consequence of the circulation decline| a marked cooling takes place over eastern Greenland and the northern North Atlantic. This result underlines the potential role of the Greenland ice sheet in the evolution of climate over the 21st century. 6234,2003,4,4,Importance of clouds to the decaying trend and decadal variability in the Arctic ice cover,The areal extent of the sea ice cover in the Arctic. Ocean has declined in. the last 40 years with increased decadal variability. The trend is clearly influenced by the radiation balance over. all seasons. A cloudiness increase in the fall| winter and spring contributes to a reduction in the absolute amount of net longwave radiation at the sea surface. In the summer| the reduced cloud cover has led to an increase in shortwave radiation| permitting more net outgoing radiation| and yielding a small increase in the total incoming radiation. All of these trends promote ice reduction| and may suggest the importance of clouds during a possible global warming in the near future. The effects of clouds and radiation are comparable with the albedo reduction associated with more open water| which absorbs more solar radiation in the summer. Analyses of the decadal variabilities reveal qualitatively the same effects as those of the|radiation on the ice cover. 6074,2003,3,3,Incineration: Efficient| economical| and environmental,Industries are continually looking for innovative ways to improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Incineration of waste gas products is not a new concept to the oil and gas industry| However in recent years| significant improvements in incinerator design and technology have resulted in optimal performance| increased reliability| and reduced capital and operating costs. Since the technology has a measurable 99.99% combustion efficiency with no visible flame| black smoke| or detectable odour| Petroleum companies are now considering incineration as a cost effective and environmentally responsible alternative to conventional flaring| Incineration is a proven method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions because the global warming potential (GWP) of methane|is 21 times greater than the GWP of CO2. Hence| the complete combustion process that incineration offers reduces the global warming effect and significantly improves air quality. Also assisting in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the fact that incineration requires significantly less fuel gas to combust low heat content streams| such as acid or tail gas. 6144,2003,3,4,Including indirect environmental impacts in waste management planning,Activities within waste management systems| such as energy and material recovery| can lead to indirect environmental impacts that occur outside of waste management systems. In this paper| the effect of including indirect greenhouse-gas emissions on the choice of waste management solutions on a national level is explored. The global warming potentials (GWPs) of future waste management solutions for Sweden are compared. These include direct and indirect GWPs resulting from recovering power| heat| biogas| materials and nutrients. Furthermore| two of the assumptions that are presumed to be crucial for determining the indirect GWPs are examined in sensitivity analyses. It was found that indirect GWPs of waste management could be large when comparing a range of waste management solutions. Including indirect GWPs may even change the ranking of the solutions. However| the estimates of the indirect GWs are sensitive to the assumptions made. Including them involves large uncertainties. Despite this| some general conclusions regarding the preferability of the respective solutions can be drawn. Including indirect environmental impacts is important when providing information to support strategic planning that involves choosing among waste management solutions. Ultimately| it is a question of improving the ability of waste management planners to design environmentally sustainable and robust waste management systems. increased knowledge of the indirect environmental impacts of waste management can contribute to providing such an improvement. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6118,2003,3,3,Increase of cleaning rate and reduction in global warming effect during C4F8O/O-2 remote plasma cleaning of silicon nitride by adding NO and N2O,During the chemical vapor deposition chamber cleaning and oxide etching processes using perfluorocompounds (PFCs)| recombined and non-reacted PFCs are emitted. The emission of PFCs needs to be controlled in the near future to reduce the effect on global warming. In this study| an optimum condition of C4F8O/O-2 cleaning chemistry for silicon nitride by using a remote inductively coupled plasma source was determined as a function of process parameters. Under the optimum condition| the net emission of PFCs during cleaning was quantified using a Fourier transform-infrared spectroscopy and then the effects of additive nitrogen-containing NO and N2O gases on the cleaning rate| the destruction removal efficiency and the million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) were investigated. The addition of N2O and NO gases to C4F8O/O-2 cleaning chemistry dramatically increased the cleaning rate by the factor of congruent to9 and decreased the volume of emitted CF4 slightly. The increase in the cleaning rate and the decrease in the emitted volume of CF4 by the addition of N2O and NO contribute to the large decrease in the MMTCE values by 93 and 95%| respectively| compared to the case of cleaning without the additive gases. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5999,2003,2,4,Increase of skull size in the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and Eurasian badger (Meles meles) in Denmark during the twentieth century: an effect of improved diet?,The skulls of 272 red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and 308 Eurasian badgers (Meles meles) collected in Denmark over the last 120 years were measured to determine any temporal changes in skull size (and. by implication| body size) during the studied period. We wished to determine whether global warming had resulted in a decrease in skull and body size in accordance with Bergmann's rule. Contrary to our predictions| there were no significant negative relationships between any of the four skull characters measured and mean annual temperature. Among badgers. two of the four characters measured had increased significantly during the twentieth century (zygomatic breadth by about 2% and length of upper molar by about 3.5%). but only in Jutland. In the red fox| three of the four skull characters measured had increased significantly during the twentieth century (zygomatic breadth by about 5%| length of fourth upper premolar|9 by about 7% and diameter of canine by about 9%). with one parameter (zygomatic breadth) increasing twice as fast in Zealand as in Jutland. All the above three characters are closely associated with diet: the size of the zygomatic arch is closely related to the size of the masseter muscle. the size of the carnassial and the diameter of canine are generally associated with prey size. and the size of the first molar is associated with grinding of grain and larger invertebrates. Larger teeth enable a predator to take and handle larger prey items. However| the fourth parameter (greatest length of skull) had not increased during the studied period. Since all the above skull characters are significantly related to body size| these results indicate that the body size of both species had increased during the twentieth century. The increase in skull characters is probably related to contemporaneous changes in Danish agriculture and land use| which| in turn resulted in changes to the foxes' and badgers' diets. 2807,2003,2,4,Increasing activity of coastal processes associated with climate change in Estonia,Estonia has a long (3|800 km) coastline due to numerous peninsulas| bays and islands (over 1|500). Owing to its flat and low-lying coastal zone| which is experiencing isostatic and tectonic uplift| the development of the coast should be stable| although activation of coastal processes| which are presumed to be associated with global climate change| has been observed in Estonia for the last 20-30 years. As there is little evidence of a sea level rise during this period| extensive erosion and alteration of depositional coasts| such as sandy beaches| appears to be largely due to the recent increased storminess in the easter Baltic Sea. Frequency of storm days varied greatly during the second half of the 20th century with a minimum in the 1960s and a maximum during the last two decades. The results of the Mann-Kendall test show a statistically significant an increasing trend in annual and winter storminess over the last half-century. This increase is probably associated with| increased westerlies and cyclonic activity in Northern Atlantic in winter resulting in warmer winters in| northern Europe and an ice-free Baltic Sea near the Estonian coast. This paper focuses on the relationships between storm frequency and wind speed and the shoreline dynamics of areas where coastal processes and shoreline development has been observed and recorded for the last 20-30 years. A dataset of storms was created and extremely stormy periods were identified in order to correlate storm data with the most significant recorded coastal change events. The most marked coastal changes in Estonia result from a combination of strong storms| high sea-levels induced by storm surge| ice free seas and unfrozen sediments| all of which enhance erosion and transport of sediments above the mean sea-level and inland the mean coastline. 6009,2003,2,4,Increasing Great Lake-effect snowfall during the twentieth century: A regional response to global warming?,The influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on the climate of surrounding regions is significant| especially in leeward settings where lake-effect snowfall occurs. Heavy lake-effect snow represents a potential natural hazard and plays important roles in winter recreational activities| agriculture| and regional hydrology. Changes in lake-effect snowfall may represent a regional-scale manifestation of hemispheric-scale climate change| such as that associated with global warming. This study examines records of snowfall from several lake-effect and non-lake-effect sites throughout most of the twentieth century in order to 1) determine whether differences in snowfall trends exist between these settings and 2) offer possible linkages between lake-effect snow trends and records of air temperature| water temperature| and ice cover. A new| historic record of oxygen isotope [delta(18)O((CaCO3))] data from the sediments of three eastern Finger Lakes in central New York is presented as a means of independently assessing changes in Great Lakes lake-effect snowfall. Results reveal a statistically significant increasing trend in snowfall for the lake-effect sites| whereas no trend is observed in the non-lake-effect settings. The Finger Lake oxygen isotope record reflects this increase in lake-effect snow through a statistically significant trend toward lower delta(18)O((CaCO3)) values. Records of air temperature| water temperature| and lake ice suggest that the observed lake-effect snow increase during the twentieth century may be the result of warmer Great Lakes surface waters and decreased ice cover| both of which are consistent with the historic upward trend in Northern Hemispheric temperature due to global warming. Given projected increases in future global temperature| areas downwind of the Great Lakes may experience increased lake-effect snowfall for the foreseeable future. 6153,2003,2,3,Indian monsoon variability in a global warming scenario,The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) constituted by the World Meteorological Organisation provides expert guidance regarding scientific and technical aspects of the climate problem. Since 1990 IPCC has| at five-yearly intervals| assessed and reported on the current state of knowledge and understanding of the climate issue. These reports have projected the behaviour of the Asian monsoon in the warming world. While the IPCC Second Assessment Report (IPCC| 1996) on climate model projections of Asian/Indian monsoon stated "Most climate models produce more rainfall over South Asia in a warmer climate with increasing CO2"| the recent IPCC (2001) Third Assessment Report states "It is likely that the warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will cause an increase in Asian summer monsoon variability and changes in monsoon strength." Climate model projections (IPCC| 2001) also suggest more El Nino-like events in the tropical Pacific| increase in surface temperatures and decrease in the northern hemisphere snow cover. The Indian Monsoon is an important component of the Asian monsoon and its links with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon| northern hemisphere surface temperature and Eurasian snow are well documented. In the light of the IPCC global warming projections on the Asian monsoon| the interannual and decadal variability in summer monsoon rainfall over India and its teleconnections have been examined by using observed data for the 131-year (1871-2001) period. While the interannual variations show year-to-year random fluctuations| the decadal variations reveal distinct alternate epochs of above and below normal rainfall. The epochs tend to last for about three decades. There is no clear evidence to suggest that the strength and variability of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) nor the epochal changes are affected by the global warming. Though the 1990s have been the warmest decade of the millennium (IPCC| 2001)| the IMR variability has decreased drastically. Connections between the ENSO phenomenon| Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the Eurasian snow with IMR reveal that the correlations are not only weak but have changed signs in the early 1990s suggesting that the IMR has delinked not only with the Pacific but with the Northern Hemisphere/Eurasian continent also. The fact that temperature/snow relationships with IMR are weak further suggests that global warming need not be a cause for the recent ENSO-Monsoon weakening. Observed snow depth over the Eurasian continent has been increasing| which could be a result of enhanced precipitation due to the global warming. 6035,2003,3,2,Industrial trial production of low energy belite cement,The Portland cement industry consumes large amounts of energy and produces huge quantities of carbon dioxide| which contribute to global warming| the so-called "Greenhouse Effect". Industrial trials are reported for the production of belite cements (approximate to3000 t) at lower temperatures and with lower lime saturation factors than for ordinary Portland cement. Belite cements with reasonably good properties have been made on an industrial scale from limestone| burnt clay| volcanic ash| pyrite ash and gypsum. A rapid rate of cooling improves the hydraulic activity| and also the physical-mechanical properties by stabilising reactive forms of belite. Such low energy cements provide a cheap alternative to Portland cement with properties that are acceptable for many applications and the additional benefit of possible improved durability. (C) 2002 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 5972,2003,2,4,Influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on fire regimes in the Florida everglades,Disturbances that are strongly linked to global climatic cycles may occur in a regular| predictable manner that affects composition and distribution of ecological communities. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences worldwide precipitation patterns and has occur-red with regular periodicity over the last 130000 years. We hypothesized that ENSO| through effects on local weather conditions| has influenced frequency and extent of fires within Everglades National Park (Florida| USA). Using data from 1948 to 1999| we found that the La Nina phase of ENSO was associated with decreased dry-season rainfall| lowered surface water levels| increased lightning strikes| more fires| and larger areas burned. In contrast| the El Nino phase was associated with increased dry-season rainfall| raised surface water levels| decreased lightning strikes| fewer fires| and smaller areas burned. Shifts between ENSO phases every few years have likely influenced vegetation through periodic large-scale fires| resulting in a prevalence of fire-influenced communities in the Everglades landscape. 2734,2003,4,4,Integrated assessment modeling for global climate change: An infinite horizon optimization viewpoint,In this paper one uses an infinite time horizon optimal control paradigm to deal with three important issues in global climate change integrated assessment| namely the equitable treatment of all the generations involved| the representation of technical progress| and the uncertainty concerning technological progress and climate change processes. The notion of economic sustainability is associated with the concept of turnpike in infinite horizon optimization models. The issue of deciding on the proper discount rate is addressed in this context and a method is proposed to reconcile long term sustainability and short term time preference for current generations. One also formulates a model where environmental damage and/or technical progress are represented as stochastic jump processes. One calls this random evolution a mode switching process. In this context| sustainability is represented by a family of turnpikes| and the economy will be driven from one steady state to the other as the modes switch. These concepts are illustrated on the DICE model and their possible implementation in other types of integrated assessment models is discussed. 6129,2003,2,3,Integrated assessment of Hadley Centre (HadCM2) climate change projections on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States - I. Climate change scenarios and impacts on irrigation water supply simulated with the HUMUS model,In response to a congressional mandate| the US Global Change Research Program organized a National Assessment of Climate Change focusing on geographic regions (e.g. Alaska| Great Plains) and sectors (e.g. public health| agriculture| water resources). This paper describes methodology and results of a study by researchers at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory contributing to the water sector analysis. The subsequent paper makes use of the water supply results to estimate the climate change impacts on irrigated agriculture. The vulnerability of water resources in the conterminous US to climate changes in 10-year periods centered on 2030 and 2095 as. projected by the Hadley/United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) general circulation model (GCM; HadCM2) were modeled using the Hydrologic Unit Model for the United States (HUMUS). HUMUS| a biophysically based hydrology model| consists of a Geographical Information System (GIS) that provides data on soils| land use and climate to drive the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The modeling was done at the scale of the eight-digit United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hydrologic Unit Area (HUA) of which there are 2101 in the conterminous US. Results are aggregated to the four- and two-digit (major water resource region| MWRR) scales for various purposes. Daily records of maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation (PPT) from 1961 to 1990 provided the baseline climate. Water yields (WY)| used as a measure of water supply for irrigation| increases from the 1961-1990 baseline period over most of the US in 2030 and 2095. In 2030| WY increases in the western US and decreases in the central and southeast regions. Notably| WY increases by 139 turn (35%) from baseline in the Pacific Northwest. Driven by higher temperatures and reduced precipitation| WY is projected to decrease in the Lower Mississippi and Texas Gulf basins. The HadCM2 (2095) scenario projects a climate significantly wetter than baseline| resulting in water yield increases of 38% on average. Water yield increases are projected to be significant throughout the eastern US-39% in the Ohio basin| for example. Water yields increase significantly in the western US| as well-57 and 76% in the Upper and Lower Colorado| respectively. Climate change also affects the seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Early snowmelt is induced in western basins| leading to dramatically increased water yields in late winter and early spring. The simulations were run at current (365 ppm) and elevated (560 ppm) atmospheric CO2 concentrations [CO2] to account for the potential impacts of the 'CO2-fertilization' effect. The effects of climate change scenario were considerably greater than those due to elevated [CO2] but the latter| overalls decreased losses and augmented increases in water yield. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6140,2003,3,2,Integration of fossil energy systems with CO2 sequestration through NH4HCO3 production,The increasing anthropogenic CO2 emission and global warming (thus climate change) have challenged the United States and other countries to find new and better ways to meet the world's increasing needs for energy while reducing greenhouse gases emissions. Here| we present a practical and revolutionary method that can sequester greenhouse gas emissions and| at the same time| benefit both agriculture and the economy. The proposed strategy utilizes an innovative application of chemical processes to convert CO2| NOx and SOx emissions into valuable fertilizers (mainly| NH4HCO3) that can enhance sequestration Of CO2 into soil and subsoil earth layers| reduce NO3- contamination of groundwater and stimulate photosynthetic fixation Of CO2 from the atmosphere. This invention integrates pollutant removing fertilizer production reactions with coal-fired power plants and other energy operations| resulting in a clean energy system that is in harmony with the earth ecosystem. This technology could contribute importantly to global CO2 sequestration and clean air protection. When this technology is in worldwide use| because of its high efficiency and carbon credit| in addition to the benefit of clean air protection and stimulation of photosynthetic fixation Of CO2 from the atmosphere| maximally 300 million tons Of CO2 per year (equivalent to about 5% of the CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants in the world) from smokestacks can be placed into soil by the use of this technology. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6260,2003,3,4,Integration of life cycle assessment and population balance model for assessing environmental impacts of product population in a social scale - Case studies for the global warming potential of air conditioners in Japan,Scope. In this study| a dynamic model was built in which LCA and PBM were integrated to quantitatively assess the total environmental impacts induced by the product population in a society over time. Specifically| a determination was carried out concerning how Japan's air conditioner population is used (lifetime distribution| number of units| etc.) and an assessment was made concerning the Global Warming Potential (GWP) associated with the air conditioner population. Methods. The proposed dynamic model was applied to air conditioners for analyzing the total GWP caused by the air conditioner population in Japan from 1990 to 2010. To create a trend forecast model for future environmental load| scenarios for air conditioner production up to 2010 were formulated and the total GWP from the air conditioner population was predicted. Conducted also were sensitivity analyses whose parameters were air conditioner performance| lifetime and the rate of refrigerant recovery when retired units are processed. Results and Discussion. Applying the PBM to the air conditioner population in 2000| it was found that 81.5 million units consumed 5.94 x 10(10) kWh in that year| which was a 6.1% increase in the total annual power consumption in 1990. In both a stationary scenario and a steady growth (1.5% annual increase)| it was found that the total GWP would be 27.7% higher than in 1990 under the stationary scenario and 37.8% higher under the steady growth scenario. The improvements in air conditioner performance will have a small effect on reducing the total GWP from that population. Furthermore| in connection with the average lifetime| it was found that the GWP| due to refrigerant releases when units are disposed of| would be relatively large in 2000 and the following years. Conclusions. Thus| shorter product lifetimes will spur a replacement of air conditioners with new units| a situation that will only lead to the reduction of GWP if the recovery rate of refrigerant is to be achieved to more than 50% under the stationary scenario. Recommendations and Outlook. To meet COP3 targets for Japan in 2010 (i.e. to reach the same level as in 1990 for household appliances)| our study shows that it will be vital to raise the refrigerant recovery rate. If the number of air conditioners in use remains unchanged| recovery would have to be 45.7%| but under the steady growth scenario it would have to be at least 60.4%. Therefore| it will be difficult to meet COP3 targets unless the refrigerant recovery rate is strongly increased. This method is applicable to assess not only the GWP of air conditioners| but also other environmental impacts caused by a variety of product populations| which will be quite effective for setting targets of products' performance| policymaking| etc. 6147,2003,2,4,Inter-annual variability in the breeding performance of seabirds in relation to oceanographic anomalies that affect the Crozet and the Kerguelen sectors of the Southern Ocean,Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of inter-annual variation in Sea-Surface Temperatures (SST) associated with a latitudinal shift of frontal structures in the Southern Ocean. However| the long-term consequences of these major climatic events on the biotic environment remain poorly understood. We studied the effect of SST anomalies in the southern Indian Ocean on the breeding success of eight seabird species| and found these temperature anomalies to have different effects depending on the foraging habitat of the species. The breeding success of four seabird species foraging mainly south of the Polar Front in Antarctic waters was significantly depressed by warm SST occurring mainly in winter and spring| prior to breeding. Conversely| warm SST anomalies were associated with a higher breeding success for species foraging mainly north of the Polar Front| while no significant effect was found for two species that forage on the Kerguelen plateau. These different responses to changes in the SST were also observed for two closely related species (sooty albatross Phoebetria fusca and light-mantled sooty albatross. palpebrata) breeding at Kerguelen. These observations highlight the importance of multi-species long-term monitoring programs for understanding the ecological consequences of environmental variability. Our results suggest that the predicted southward shift of the Polar Front caused by oceanic warming could lead to an important decrease in the breeding performance of top predator seabirds depending on the location and changes of their foraging habitat in relation the Polar Front. 2784,2003,2,4,Interannual variation in terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes in China from 1981 to 1998,A dynamic biogeochemical model was used to estimate the responses of China's terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP)| soil heterotrophic respiration (HR) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 from 1981 to 1998. Results show that China's total NPP varied between 2.89 and 3.37 Gt C/a and had an increasing trend by 0.32% per year| HR varied between 2.89 and 3.21 Gt C/a and grew by 0.40% per year| Annual NEP varied between -0.32 and 0.25 Gt C but had no statistically significant interannual trend. The positive mean NEP indicates that China's terrestrial ecosystems were taking up carbon with a total carbon sequestration of 1.22 Gt C during the analysis period. The terrestrial NEP in China related to climate and atmospheric CO2 increases accounted for about 10% of the world's total and was similar to the level of the United States in the same period. The mean annual NEP for the analysis period was near to zero for most of the regions in China| but significantly positive NEP occurred in Northeast China Plain| the southeastern Xizang (Tibet) and Huang-Huai-Hai Plain| and negative NEP occurred in the Da Hinggan Mountains| Xiao Hinggan Mountains| Loess Plateau and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. China's climate at the time was warm and dry relative to other periods| so the estimated NEP is probably lower than the average level. China's terrestrial NEP may increase if climate becomes wetter but is likely to continue to decrease if the present warming and drying trend sustains. 6242,2003,3,2,International greenhouse gas trading programs: a discussion of measurement and accounting issues,There is general scientific consensus that global warming is occurring and that this results from human activities| primarily burning fossil fuels. There is also a growing international consensus that the most cost-effective way to slow global warming is to establish international climate change trading programs that let institutions sell greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions in an international trading program. A well designed international GHG trading program could save billions or tens of billions of dollars and could result in a more rapid transfer of cleaner. more modern energy generating| transmitting and using technologies to developing nations| Establishing an international GHG trading program will require the development of international consensus rules on how to value and credit investments. for example in energy efficiency| that result in reduced emissions of greenhouse gases. Such a program would require the development of an international technical agreement on how to value emissions reductions attributed to energy-efficiency investments that reflect realistic estimates of future energy savings-and emissions reductions-that come from those investments. This paper examines five possible approaches for valuing energy savings which might serve as the basis for an international agreement. discusses the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. and discusses lessons learned from conducting this evaluation process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6268,2003,5,4,Interplate dispersal paths for megathermal angiosperms,The dispersal of megathermal angiosperms between tectonic plates is reviewed on the basis of fossil evidence for the Cretaceous and Tertiary periods| since the radiation of the angiosperms| and the period of break-up of Gondwana. The combination of tectonic plate disassembly and redistribution| coupled with phases of global warming followed by pronounced cooling| has resulted in the formation of intermittent dispersal opportunities for frost-intolerant plants| and has been a major factor in determining the direction of angiosperm diversification. The Early Cretaceous radiation of angiosperms seems to show little relationship to the formation of Tethys. However| for the Late Cretaceous and Tertiary nine relevant dispersal routes can be differentiated that can be divided into two distinct categories: routes which formed following the break-up of Gondwana during the Late Cretaceous and Earlier Tertiary| when warm climates encouraged dispersal of megathermal elements globally| and routes which formed since the Middle Eocene| following phases of plate collision| as global climates were cooling down| inhibiting such dispersal. Most inter-plate dispersal of megathermal angiosperms took place in the Late Cretaceous and Early Tertiary at a time when global climates were markedly different from those of today| and the global area of megathermal vegetation several times greater than at present. Under such a scenario| it is likely than opportunities for speciation were much higher than for present-day megathermal plants. 2719,2003,2,4,Investigating SeaWinds terrestrial backscatter: Equatorial savannas of South America,Because tropical grasslands play an important role in the storage of global carbon| monitoring them is critical to evaluating global climate change. The goal of this research is to model seasonal SeaWinds Ku-band backscatter in five savanna areas of Colombia| Venezuela| and Brazil as a function of biophysical changes in the savanna landscape. Multiple regression modeling demonstrates that savanna Ku-band backscatter is a function of (1) savanna grass biomass/leaf area| (2) soil moisture| and (3) other soil characteristics. Fit for the regression models is excellent (R = 0.87 and 0.81| respectively for the horizontal and vertical polarization case). The horizontal-vertical polarization difference is also moderately related to precipitation (R = 0.71). The results from this modelin are consistent with theory predicated on previous C- and X-band research. The possibility of monitoring savanna vegetation| soil moisture| and rainfall using Ku-band radar and scatterometry is discussed. 6083,2003,3,4,Ion energy distribution and optical measurements in high-density| inductively coupled C4F6 discharges,Hexafluoro-1|3 butadiene (C4F6) is a potential etching gas with a very low global warming potential for the manufacturing of semiconductors| unlike commonly used fluorocarbon gases such as CF4 and c-C4F8. We report ion energy distributions| relative ion intensities and absolute total ion current densities measured at the edge of an inductively coupled gaseous electronics conference radio-frequency reference cell for discharges generated in pure C4F6 and C4F6:Ar mixtures. In addition| the ratio of radical densities relative to CF measured using submillimeter absorption spectroscopy and optical emission spectroscopy measurements are presented. These measurements of the C4F6 plasmas were made for several different gas pressures (0.67| 1.33| and 2.66 Pa) and gas mixture ratios (25%| 50%| 75%| and 100% C4F6 volume fractions). (C) 2003 American Institute Of Physics. 6180,2003,2,4,Is the ENSO phenomenon changing as a result of global warming?,It has been suggested by some that warm El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have become stronger and more frequent as a result of global warming. This study aims to investigate whether there is any evidence for changes in the behavior of the ENSO phenomenon that may be attributed to global warming. Cluster analysis is carried out to group warm and cold events by various characteristics using the U.K. Climatic Research Unit air-temperature anomaly data set for the period 1856-1999. Analysis of the resulting groups of events and their relation to global temperature changes gives rise to various conclusions. First| the cold (La Nina) phase of the ENSO phenomenon has been more stable in the period of study than the warm (El Nino) one. Second| average strength warm events seem to be more frequent immediately preceding and during periods of steep global temperature rise| supporting the idea (Hunt| 1999) that more frequent El Ninos are a short-term response in ocean-atmosphere coupling to rising global temperature. 6276,2003,2,4,Koppen climate types in observed and simulated climates,The Koppen climate classification was applied to the observed gridded climatological sets and the outputs of four general circulation models (GCMs) over the continents of the Earth. All data had been acquired via the Data Distribution Centre established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The ability of the GCMs to simulate the Koppen climate zones identified in the real data was explored and possible future (global warming) changes in the climate types' distribution for each GCM were assessed. Differences in the area distributions derived from the GCMs' recent climate simulations give evidence about uncertainties generally involved in climate models. As to the global warming simulations| all GCM projections of warming climate (horizon 2050) show that the zones representing tropical rain climates and dry climates become larger| and the zones identified with boreal forest and snow climates together with the polar climates are smaller. 6039,2003,3,4,Land use-cover change processes in highly biodiverse areas: the case of Oaxaca| Mexico,Land use-cover changes (LUCC) such as deforestation| have resulted as global warming and a reduction of environmental services| with large negative consequences for mankind. Effects based on statistics alone have not been sufficient enough to detect| stop and eventually revert negative LUCC processes that are strongly related to biodiversity loss. It is| therefore| of prime concern to assess and depict cartographically| major LUCC processes simultaneously. Mexico harbors a large pool of biodiversity| mostly restricted to a few locations among which| The State of Oaxaca plays a major role. In this state| nevertheless| drastic negative LUCC processes are taking place. Land cover types| mapped in previous surveys| overlaid on recent Landsat imagery and 300 ground truth sites| were used to detect current LUCC. Rates of conversion of the most important LUCC processes were computed and mapped simultaneously. Oaxaca has lost over half a million hectares of forested areas during the last 20 years. The core results may contribute to the understanding of how LUCC and GIS methods can provide better and more targeted information that may help to improve conservation policies and land use planning strategies. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6115,2003,4,4,Large-scale temperature changes across the southern Andes: 20th-century variations in the context of the past 400 years,Long-term trends of temperature variations across the southern Andes (37 - 55degrees S) are examined using a combination of instrumental and tree-ring records. A critical appraisal of surface air temperature from station records is presented for southern South America during the 20th century. For the interval 1930 - 1990| three major patterns in temperature trends are identified. Stations along the Pacific coast between 37 and 43degreesS are characterized by negative trends in mean annual temperature with a marked cooling period from 1950 to the mid-1970s. A clear warming trend is observed in the southern stations (south of 46degreesS)| which intensifies at higher latitudes. No temperature trends are detected for the stations on the Atlantic coast north of 45degreesS. In contrast to higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere where annual changes in temperature are dominated by winter trends| both positive and negative trends in southern South America are due to mostly changes in summer ( December to February) temperatures. Changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) around 1976 are felt in summer temperatures at most stations in the Pacific domain| starting a period with increased temperature across the southern Andes and at higher latitudes. Tree-ring records from upper-treeline were used to reconstruct past temperature fluctuations for the two dominant patterns over the southern Andes. These reconstructions extend back to 1640 and are based on composite tree-ring chronologies that were processed to retain as much low-frequency variance as possible. The resulting reconstructions for the northern and southern sectors of the southern Andes explain 55% and 45% of the temperature variance over the interval 1930 - 1989| respectively. Cross-spectral analysis of actual and reconstructed temperatures over the common interval 1930 - 1989| indicates that most of the explained variance is at periods >10 years in length. At periods >15 years| the squared coherency between actual and reconstructed temperatures ranges between 0.6 and 0.95 for both reconstructions. Consequently| these reconstructions are especially useful for studying multi-decennial temperature variations in the South American sector of the Southern Hemisphere over the past 360 years. As a result| it is possible to show that the temperatures during the 20th century have been anomalously warm across the southern Andes. The mean annual temperatures for the northern and southern sectors during the interval 1900 - 1990 are 0.53degreesC and 0.86degreesC above the 1640 - 1899 means| respectively. These findings placed the current warming in a longer historical perspective| and add new support for the existence of unprecedented 20th century warming over much of the globe. The rate of temperature increase from 1850 to 1920 was the highest over the past 360 years| a common feature observed in several proxy records from higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Local temperature regimes are affected by changes in planetary circulation| with in turn are linked to global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Therefore| we explored how temperature variations in the southern Andes since 1856 are related to large-scale SSTs on the South Pacific and South Atlantic Oceans. Spatial correlation patterns between the reconstructions and SSTs show that temperature variations in the northern sector of the southern Andes are strongly connected with SST anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific. This spatial correlation pattern resembles the spatial signature of the PDO mode of SST variability over the South Pacific and is connected with the Pacific-South American (PSA) atmospheric pattern in the Southern Hemisphere. In contrast| temperature variations in the southern sector of the southern Andes are significantly correlated with SST anomalies over most of the South Atlantic| and in less degree| over the subtropical Pacific. This spatial correlation field regressed against SST resembles the 'Global Warming' mode of SST variability| which in turn| is linked to the leading mode of circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Certainly| part of the temperature signal present in the reconstructions can be expressed as a linear combination of four orthogonal modes of SST variability. Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis| performed on SST across the South Pacific and South Atlantic Oceans| indicate that four discrete modes of SST variability explain a third| approximately| of total variance in temperature fluctuations across the southern Andes. 6016,2003,5,4,Late Maastrichtian paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic changes inferred from Sr/Ca ratio and stable isotopes,Milankovitch-scale cycles can be recognized in high-resolution delta(13)C| delta(18)O| Sr/Ca| mineralogical| and magnetic susceptibility data in hemipelagic sediments that span the last 700 kyr of the Maastrichtian at Elles| Tunisia. Oxygen isotope data reveal three cool periods between 65.50 and 65.55 Ma (21.5-23.5 m)| 65.26 and 65.33 Ma (8-11 in)| and 65.04 and 65.12 Ma (1.5-4 m)| and three warm periods between 65.33 and 65.38 Ma (12-16 m)| 65.12 and 65.26 Ma (4-8 in)| and 65.00 and 65.04 Ma (0-1.5 m). The cool periods are characterized by small surface-to-deep temperature gradients that reflect intensive mixing of the water column. The surface-to-deep Sr/Ca gradient generally correlates with the oscillating AT trend (temperature difference between surface and bottom waters). The carbon isotope composition of planktonic foraminifera indicates a continuous decrease in surface bioproductivity during Late Maastrichtian. Decreasing Delta(13)C values (difference between the delta(13)C values of surface and bottom dwelling foraminifera) and the carbon isotope ratios of the planktonic species at the onset of gradual warming at 65.50 Ma reflect a reduction in surface productivity as a result of decreased upwelling that accompanied global warming and possibly increased atmospheric pCO(2)| related to Deccan Trap volcanism. Time series analysis applied to magnetic susceptibility| delta(18)O| and Sr/Ca data identifies the 20 kyr precession| 40 kyr obliquity| and 100 kyr eccentricity Milankovich cycles. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6028,2003,5,4,Late Quaternary seasonal sea-ice history of the northeastern Japan Sea,The Late Quaternary sea-ice history of the northeastern Japan Sea is discussed on the basis of the occurrence of dropstones and ice-rafted debris (IRD) in fine sediment cores. IRD was found in all strata except those from the Holocene and oxygen isotope stage 5.5. The largest expansion of sea ice was recognized at the last glacial maximum (LGM; oxygen isotope stage 2)| when the southern margin of seasonal sea ice was probably located in the vicinity of the Matsumae Plateau. The margin might occasionally have expanded further southward to off the Oga Peninsula. Sea ice expanded southward from mid-stage 5 to the LGM in response to global cooling| but with much fluctuation. Sea ice remained during deglaciation until around 10 ka| but after 10 ka it retreated northward rapidly in response to global warming and changes in surface water conditions. Greater fluctuations in IRD were found in core GH95-1208 collected from off Rumoi| Hokkaido| Japan. More IRD was found in sediments from late stage 3| late stage 5| and early stage 6. The fluctuations were not concordant with global climate changes (based on the standard oxygen isotope curve)| and may have been controlled by regional climate factors such as the strength of the winter monsoon| which is related in turn to high-latitude atmospheric circulation. 6230,2003,4,4,Late-flowering plants from northern Nova Scotia| Canada,Over 90 species of herbaceous dicotyledonous plants| representing 62 genera and 19 families| were recorded in blossom from northern Nova Scotia| Canada| during November and December 2001. Most observations were made during 10-20 November| but 29 species were in flower after 10 December. The number of species flowering declined steadily with time| rather than declining precipitously after the first frost. Only 6 of these 92 species are specifically reported in the floras of Nova Scotia as flowering in November. Examination of plant collections in the primary Nova Scotia herbaria showed that our collections represent the latest flowering records for all but one of these species in Nova Scotia. Accordingly| our collection extends the known flowering times for these species by an average of 45 days. For most species the late flowering is interpreted as an extension of normal phenology in response to unusually warm autumn weather| but for some species (e.g.| Viola cucullata| Ranunculus acris| Fragaria virginiana) it appears to represent a second flowering period. Our collections establish a base line of late flowering times that could be used as an indicator of regional climate change.
6110,2003,2,4,Leishmaniasis in Germany,In 2000| a reference center was created to systematically record leishmaniases in Germany. We analyzed 58 cases of leishmaniases imported during a 2-year period. These findings will serve as a baseline for the sandfly vector's anticipated northward move because of global warming and as an advisory for immunocompromised persons traveling to leishmaniasis-endemic areas. 6285,2003,3,4,Life cycle assessment (LCA) of cleaning-in-place processes in dairies,Four Cleaning-In-Place (CIP) methods for dairies were compared using life cycle assessment (LCA). The methods were conventional alkaline| acid cleaning with hot ater disinfection| one-phase alkaline cleaning with acid chemical disinfection| enzyme-based cleaning with acid chemical disinfection and the conventional method with disinfection by cold nitric acid at pH 2. Production of detergents| transport| the user phase in the dairy and waste management of containers were included. The user phase was found to be the most important part of the life cycle. The CIP methods with small volumes and low temperatures. Such as enzyme-based cleaning and one-phase alkaline cleaning. turned Out to be the best alternatives for the impact categories energy use. global warming| acidification| eutrophication and photo-oxidant Formation. Milk residues flushed out in the rinsing phase ere the main contributor to eutrophication| but the phosphorus and nitrogen in the detergents also influenced the results. Evaluation of toxic substances poses a methodological problem in LCA. In this study. detergents partly composed of toxic substances ere included. and the overall assessment vas that the one-phase alkaline cleaning method was preferable from an environmental point of A qualitative assessment of toxicity was performed. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. on behalf of Swiss Society of Food Science and Technology. 6297,2003,3,3,Life cycle assessment and long term CO2 reduction estimation of ultra lightweight vehicles using CFRP,Japanese annual oil consumption is about 300 GL (giga liter) and energy related CO2 emission is about 300 MtC (mega ton carbon). Among them| transport vehicles consume one third of the oil| 100 GL/year| and emit 20 percent of the CO2| 61 MtC/year. Then| the substitution of carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP) for the structural material of transport vehicle is quite effective in lightening| fuel efficiency and hence the mitigation of global warming. In this paper| life cycle CO2 emission and energy consumption of the ultra lightweight automobile using CFRP are presented first. Then| the effect of lightweight and fuel cell automobiles on the mitigation of global oil consumption and CO2 emission is estimated under the assumption of Asian motorization. 6294,2003,3,3,Life cycle assessment of a willow bioenergy cropping system,The environmental performance of willow biomass crop production systems in New York (NY) is analyzed using life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The base-case| which represents current practices in NY| produces 55 units of biomass energy per unit of fossil energy consumed over the biomass crop's 23-year lifetime. Inorganic nitrogen fertilizer inputs have a strong influence on overall system performance| accounting for 37% of the non-renewable fossil energy input into the system. Net energy ratio varies from 58 to below 40 as a function of fertilizer application rate| but application rate also has implications on the system nutrient balance. Substituting inorganic N fertilizer with sewage sludge biosolids increases the net energy ratio of the willow biomass crop production system by more than 40%. While CO2 emitted in combusting dedicated biomass is balanced by CO2 adsorbed in the growing biomass| production processes contribute to the system's net global warming potential. Taking into account direct and indirect fuel use| N2O emissions from applied fertilizer and leaf litter| and carbon sequestration in below ground biomass and soil carbon| the net greenhouse gas emissions total 0.68 g CO2 eq. MJ(biomass produced)(-1). Site specific parameters such as soil carbon sequestration could easily offset these emissions resulting in a net reduction of greenhouse gases. Assuming reasonable biomass transportation distance and energy conversion efficiencies| this study implies that generating electricity from willow biomass crops could produce 11 units of electricity per unit of fossil energy consumed. Results from the LCA support the assertion that willow biomass crops are sustainable from an energy balance perspective and contribute additional environmental benefits. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6264,2003,3,3,Life cycle assessment of frozen cod fillets including fishery-specific environmental impacts,Goal| Scope and Background. The purpose of the present study was to perform an environmental assessment for the entire life cycle of a seafood product and to include fishery-specific types of environmental impact in inventory and assessment. Environmental data for a frozen block of cod fillets was collected and used for a Life Cycle Assessment| including the fishery-specific environmental aspects seafloor use and biological extraction of target| by-catch and discard species. The fishery takes place in the Baltic Sea where cod is mainly fished by benthic trawls and gillnets. Methods. The functional unit was a consumer package of frozen cod fillets (400 g) reaching the household. Data was gathered from fishermen| fishery statistics| databases| companies and literature. Fishery-specific issues like the impact on stocks of the target and by-catch species| seafloor impact and discarding were quantified in relation to the functional unit and qualitative impact assessment of these aspects was included. Results. Findings include the fact that all environmental impact categories assessed (Global Warming Potential| Eutrophication Potential| Acidification Potential| Photochemical Ozone Creation Potential and Aquatic Ecotoxiciy) are dominated by the fishery. Around 700 m(2) of seafloor are swept by trawls and around 50 g of under-sized cod and other marine species are discarded per functional unit. The phases contributing most to total environmental impact following fishery were transports and preparation in the household. The process industry and municipal sewage treatment cause considerable amounts of eutrophying emissions. Conclusions. Conclusions are that there are considerable options for improvement of the environmental performance of the seafood production chain. In the fishery| the most important environmental measure is to fish sustainably managed stocks. Speed optimisation| increased use of less energy-intensive fishing gear and improved engine and fuel technology are technical measures that would considerably decrease resource use and environmental impact caused by fishery. Due to the importance of fishery for the overall results| the most important environmental improvement option after landing is to maintain high quality and minimise product losses. Recommendations and Outlook. The need for good baseline data concerning resource use and marine environmental impact of fisheries in order to perform environmental assessment of seafood products was demonstrated. LCA was shown to be a valuable tool for such assessments| which in the future could be used to improve the environmental performance of the seafood production chain or in the development of criteria of eco-labelling of seafood products originating in capture fisheries. 6003,2003,3,4,Life cycle energy and environmental performance of a new university building: modeling challenges and design implications,A comprehensive case study life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted of a 7300 m(2)| six-story building with a projected 75 year life span| located on the University of Michigan campus. The bottom three floors and basement are used as classrooms and open-plan offices; the top three floors are used as hotel rooms. An inventory of all installed materials and material replacements was conducted covering the building structure| envelope| interior structure and finishes| as well as the utility and sanitary systems. Computer modeling was used to determine primary energy consumption for heating| cooling| ventilation| lighting| hot water and sanitary water consumption. Demolition and other end-of-life burdens were also inventoried. The primary energy intensity over the building's life cycle is estimated to be 2.3 x 10(6) GJ| or 316 GJ/m(2). Production of building materials| their transportation to the site as well as the construction of the building accounts for 2.2% of life cycle primary energy consumption. HVAC and electricity account for 94.4% of life cycle primary energy consumption. Water services account for 3.3% of life cycle primary energy consumption| with water heating being the major factor| due to the presence of hotel rooms in this building. Building demolition and transportation of waste| accounts for only 0.2% of life cycle primary energy consumption. All impact categories measured (global warming potential| ozone depletion potential| acidification potential| nutrification potential and solid waste generation) correlate closely with primary energy demand. The challenges in developing a life cycle model of a complex dynamic system with a long service life are explored and the implications for future designs are discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6075,2003,3,3,Life cycle inventory analysis of a sewage treatment system using statistics,Public sewage treatment plants in Japan consume 6.3 billion kWh of electricity and produce 350 million tons of sludge annually| with serious impacts on the local and global environment. In this study| a Life Cycle Inventory of a sewage treatment plant for domestic wastewater was done to assess the environmental effects using data from statistics and previous studies. The system boundaries include sewage pipe construction and operation| sewage treatment plant construction and operation| material production and sludge treatment. The functional unit is defined as the treatment system of wastewater produced by one person in one year. Energy consumption and global warming are studied as the environmental parameters. The following conclusions have been drawn from the results. 1) Energy consumption and emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) increase exponentially as the population density decreases. 2) If the actual population is less than the planned population| the operation efficiency of the sewage treatment plant decreases. 3) The energy consumption per person per year is 1|026 MJ| and CO2 equivalent emission factor is 89 kg. 4) Energy consumption for sewage treatment plant operation accounts for 78% of the total energy consumption. Under the assumption that 20% of the total carbon in the sludge is converted to CH4| the CH4 emitted from sludge landfill and the N2O generated by sludge incineration contribute respectively 35% and 14% to global warming. These results also show that further development of sludge recycling technology is desirable to decrease GHGs. 6159,2003,3,4,Life cycle inventory analysis of CO(2) and SO(2) emission of imperial smelting process for Pb-Zn smelter,Based on the principle of life cycle assessment| CO(2) and SO(2) emission of Imperial-Smelting Process in a certain zinc-lead smelter was analyzed by life cycle inventory method. According to the system expansion and substitution method| the environmental impacts of co-products were allocated among the main products of zinc| lead and sulfuric acid. The related impacts were assessed by use of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Acidification Potential (ACP). The results show that the GWP index from 1998 to 2000 is 11. 53| 11. 65| 10. 93 tCO(2)-eq/tZn respectively| the ACP index decreases from 14. 88 kgSO(2)-eq/tZn in 1998 to 10. 99 kgSO(2)-eq/tZn in 2000. Power and electricity generation| followed by smelting and zinc distillation| are mainly responsible for GWP. Sintering individually affects ACP. Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of the ISP may come from energy conservation measures rather than from technological developments. And recycling more secondary Pb and Zn materials effectively treated by ISP| and reducing the amount of primary metal are the main ways to Put SO(2) emission under control. 5991,2003,3,4,Load-following control for dispersed generators using a PI controller,Recently| there has been growing interest in utilizing dispersed generation systems| which are grouped into micro turbine systems| co-generation systems| and so on| as a substitute for fuel oil energy and a technology to prevent global warming. Since start-up time of dispersed generation systems is short| it is possible to operate systems to supply load power corresponding to a demand. Moreover| PPSs (Power Producers and Suppliers) can participate in a power retail sales company| since deregulation of electric utilities was instituted in March 2000. However| PPSs have to keep instantaneous generating power commissioning rule| to maintain supply-and-demand balance between customer and supplier. Therefore| in this paper| we examine instantaneous generating power commissioning for dispersed generators where start-up time is short and it is possible to operate systems to supply a power load corresponding to a demand. We adopt a PI controller as a controller. The system is composed of double control loop in inner loop and in outer loop. In inner loop electric power is controlled and in outer loop electric energy is controlled. The controller parameters are designed using the pole-placement technique. The effectiveness of the proposed control system is confirmed by simulations. (C) 2003 Wiley Periodicals| Inc. 6200,2003,2,4,Local population dynamics are important to the conservation of metapopulations in highly fragmented landscapes,1. Population viability analyses (PVA) are extremely useful tools for the management of endangered species at the landscape scale. Two main families of spatially explicit models are available to perform PVA: (i) presence-absence models| in which local populations are either existing or extinct at each generation| and (ii) structured population models| in which the dynamics of each local population are modelled. In this study we compared the usefulness of both approaches for the prediction of the persistence of a species living in a highly fragmented landscape. 2. The cranberry fritillary Boloria aquilonaris is an arctic-alpine relict species in western Europe. It lives in landscapes where altitude or the proximity of oceans provide the high humidity conditions required for the formation of peat bogs| the only habitat of the butterfly. In such landscapes| the distribution of the butterfly is fragmented| following the natural distribution of peat bogs; this fragmentation is increased by human-induced peat bog destruction. 3. The study of the dynamics of a highly fragmented metapopulation of the cranberry fritillary in a network of 14 habitat patches totalling 26.23 ha revealed that: (i) the density at the equilibrium was c. 700 butterflies ha(-1) ; (ii) local population dynamics in small populations were negative; and (iii) six estimates of the growth rate R (t) showed large variations even in a large population. Both local extinctions and recolonization events are likely to occur| and two sites (one of 7 ha) unoccupied during two generations were recolonized in the third year. 4. We conclude that the future of this metapopulation is not guaranteed| given its large spatial scale and unbalanced| erratic local population dynamics. We hypothesize that global warming could explain the instability of local population dynamics detected here in addition to the decline of this arctic-alpine relict species| which is currently reported in all its refuge localities in the Netherlands. 5. Presence-absence models based on metapopulation structure and habitat characteristics should provide relatively safe predictions| as the population network (14 patches) is just below the minimum amount of suitable habitat (MASH) for the long-term persistence of a viable metapopulation. However| careful investigation of local population dynamics showed a high instability in the network| which is confirmed by population extinction at a large site. 6. Synthesis and applications. We urge conservation biologists to consider the local population dynamics of endangered species for the management of metapopulations in fragmented landscapes. In the case of the cranberry fritillary| continuing site protection is essential. 6273,2003,2,4,Long term study of the reaction of the edible dormouse Glis glis (Rodentia : Gliridae) to climatic changes and its interactions with hole-breeding passerines,This study is based on data collected in the course of a long-term study focusing on hole-breeding passerines in Frankfurt city and a low mountain range 70 km north-east of Frankfurt| Germany. Regular nest box checks have been carried out throughout the whole year in different sample areas| consisting of 2000 nestboxes| since 1969. Besides the collection of data on birds like the Great Tit (Parus major)| bats and insects the occurrence of Common Dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius) and Edible Dormouse (Glis glis) was registered. To investigate whether interspecific competetion occurs| data from 6 sample areas with a total of 1190 nestboxes have been analyzed. The data show that mean population densities of G. glis during the birds' breeding season have increased. While most species of hole-breeding passerines start their breeding period on average one week earlier due to higher temperatures in spring| G. glis appears on average four weeks earlier in the nest boxes. This leads to an increase in predation of eggs or juvenile birds. The Pied Flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca)| a migratory bird and a late breeder| is especially affected. 6101,2003,2,3,Long time memory in global warming simulations,[1] Global power law scaling of near surface temperature spectra is determined in two scenario simulations and in NCEP re-analyses. The simulations use the coupled atmosphere-ocean models HadCM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC with greenhouse gas increase according to scenario IS92a in 1860-2099. Observations show a low-frequency power spectrum S(f) similar to 1/f over the oceans| a white spectrum in the inner continents| and S(f) similar to f(-0.3) in the coastal areas. The global distribution of the power law exponents is reproduced in the two simulations even in the 21st century with a pronounced temperature increase. 5963,2003,2,3,Long-term changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations in the ocean caused by protracted global warming,In the Earth's geological record massive marine ecological change has been attributed to the occurrence of widespread anoxia in the ocean [Jahren| 2002; White| 2002; Wignall and Twitchett| 1996]. Climate change projection till the end of this century predict a 4 to 7% decline in the dissolve oxygen in the ocean [Bopp et al.| 2002; Matear et al.| 2000; Plattner et al.| 2001; Sarmiento et al.| 1998] suggesting the potential for global warming to eventually drive the deep ocean anoxic. To examine the multicentury impact of protracted global warming on oceanic concentrations of dissolved oxygen| we use a climate system model and a low-order oceanic biogeochemical model. The models are integrated for an atmospheric equivalent CO2 concentration| which is specified to triple according to a standard scenario from the late nineteenth to the late twenty-first century| and then is subsequently held constant at that elevated level for an additional 6 centuries. For the present day| the model successfully reproduced the large-scale features of the dissolved oxygen field in the ocean. In the global warming simulation| the physical model displays marked changes in high-latitude oceanic stratification and overturning| including near-cessation of deep water renewal for depths greater than about 1.5 km during the period of elevated stable CO2 concentration. Our model predicts a decline in oxygen concentration through most of the subsurface ocean. Concentration changes in the thermocline waters result mainly from solubility changes in the upstream source waters| while changes in the deep waters result mainly from lack of ventilation and ongoing consumption of oxygen by remineralization of sinking particulate organic matter. Changes in the upper 2 km of the ocean generally show signs of equilibration by the end of the integration| but at greater depths| there occurs a slow but steady decline through to the end of the integration. By the end of the integration| we simulate a doubling of the volume of hypoxic water (less than 10 mumol/kg) in the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. During the integration deep ocean oxygen concentrations generally decline by between 20 and 40%| but| significantly| no extensive deep ocean anoxia develops during the period of integration| nor does it appear that it would likely do so for at least a further 4000 years of integration. Subsurface oxygen decline is moderated by an overall reduction in export production of particulate organic matter| which reduces oxygen consumption in the ocean interior due to the remineralization of this material. 6020,2003,2,3,Long-term climate variations in China and global warming signals,[1] In this work| the authors analyze the observed long-term variations of seasonal climate in China and then investigate the possible influence of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations on these variations by comparing the observations with the simulations of the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). The long-term variations of precipitation and temperature in China are highly seasonally dependent. The main characteristic of summer precipitation in China is a drying trend in the north and a wetting trend in the central part. The precipitation in winter shows an increasing trend in southern and eastern-central China. Interesting features have also been found in the transitional seasons. In spring| precipitation variations are almost opposite to those in summer. In autumn the precipitation decreases in almost the whole country except for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley. In addition| the seasonality of precipitation has become slightly weaker in recent decades in southern and eastern China. Pronounced warming is observed in the entire country in winter| spring| and autumn| particularly in the northern part of China. In summer a cooling trend in central China is particularly interesting| and cooling ( warming) trends generally coexist with wetting ( drying) trends. The correlativity between precipitation and temperature variations is weak in spring| autumn| and winter. It has also been found that the long-term climate variations in winter and summer in China may be connected to the warming trend in the sea surface temperature of the Indian Ocean. A comparison between the observed seasonal climate variations and the CMIP2 simulations of 16 models indicates that the observed long-term variations of winter| spring| and autumn temperature in China may be associated with increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. However| such a connection is not found for the summer temperature. The tremendous uncertainties among the models in precipitation simulations make it difficult to link the precipitation variations to global warming. 6201,2003,4,4,Long-term thermal evolution and effect of low power heating in an underground quarry,Vertical profiles of temperature have been monitored in the atmosphere of an underground quarry since June 2001. A long-term temperature increase of the order of 0.1 degreesC per year is observed. Three heating experiments with 100-W sources| performed to study plume dynamics| can also be used to investigate the effect of visits on this increase. Ten days after the 24-h heatings| the initial state is not restored. Artificial contributions to the observed long-term temperature trend| triggered by internal heat release| thus cannot be ruled out. This experiment defines strict criteria for the underground monitoring of global warming or the preservation of painted caves. (C) 2003 Academie des sciences. Published by Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. 6014,2003,2,4,Long-term variations in the processes of polluting the Arctic atmosphere,Variations in the processes of atmospheric circulation in the Russian Arctic were studied during 20 years from 1981 through 2000. During this period| air exchange between northern Russia and Eurasia gradually decreased| and the probability of air mixing within the Arctic region increased. This resulted in a redistribution of the contributions of large industrial source regions to the content of anthropogenic microelements in the Arctic atmospheric aerosol. Moreover| during the processes of purifying the Arctic atmosphere| the importance of pollutant precipitation onto the underlying surface was increased| and the importance of pollutant removal by air masses outside the Arctic region was decreased. This resulted in variations in the mean atmospheric concentrations and fluxes of a number of heavy metals and other toxic microelements onto the underlying surface. In particular| during spring| the mean concentrations of anthropogenic constituents in the aerosol over the central region of the Russian Arctic decreased gradually only because of changes in the processes of atmospheric circulation. If a decrease of the intensity of anthropogenic emissions occurring in Europe and in the industrial regions of the former Soviet Union in the 1990s is taken into account| the annual average fluxes of anthropogenic pollutants onto the underlying surface of the Arctic had to a] so have been decreased at the end of the last century. On the whole| in the Northern Hemisphere| global warming must gradually decrease the efficiency of transport of anthropogenic pollutants by air masses from large industrial regions to the Arctic and| thus| decrease the importance of the atmosphere as a channel through which pollutants enter the Arctic region. 2816,2003,2,4,Lower survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees in years with intense coastal storms,The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) inhabits the subtropical waters of the southeastern United States| where hurricanes are a regular occurrence. Using mark-resighting statistical models| we analyzed 19 years of photo-identification data and detected significant annual variation in adult survival for a subpopulation in northwest Florida where human impact is low. That variation coincided with years when intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and a major winter storm occurred in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean survival probability during years with no or low intensity storms was 0.972 (approximate 95% confidence interval = 0.9.61-0.980) but dropped to 0.936 (0.864-0.971) in 1985 with Hurricanes Elena| Kate| and Juan; to 0.909 (0.837-0.951) in 1993 with the March "Storm of the Century"; and to 0.817 (0.735-0.878) in 1995 with Hurricanes Opal| Erin| and Allison. These drops in survival probability were not catastrophic in magnitude and were detected because of the use of state-of-the-art statistical techniques and the quality of the data. Because individuals of this small population range extensively along the north Gulf coast of Florida| it was possible to resolve storm effects on a regional scale rather than the site-specific local scale common to studies of more sedentary species. This is the first empirical evidence in support 4 storm effects on manatee survival and suggests a cause-effect relationship. The decreases in survival could be due to direct mortality| indirect mortality| and/or emigration from the region as a consequence of storms.-Future impacts to the population by a single catastrophic hurricane| or series of smaller hurricanes| could increase the probability of extinction. With the advent in 1995 of a new 25- to 50-yr cycle of greater hurricane activity| and longer term change possible with global climate change| it becomes all the more important to reduce mortality and injury from boats and other human causes and control the loss of foraging habitat to coastal development. 2746,2003,2,4,Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Southern Brazil: ecological niche models| predicted geographic distributions| and climate change effects,Geographic and ecological distributions of three Lutzomyia sand flies that are cutaneous leishmaniasis vectors in South America were analysed using ecological niche modelling. This new tool provides a large-scale perspective on species' geographic distributions| ecological and historical factors determining them| and their potential for change with expected environmental changes. As a first step| the ability of this technique to predict geographic distributions of the three species was tested statistically using two subsampling techniques: a random-selection technique that simulates 50% data density| and a quadrant-based technique that challenges the method to predict into broad unsampled regions. Predictivity under both test schemes was highly statistically significant. Visualisation of ecological niches provided insights into the ecological basis for distributional differences among species. Projections of potential geographic distributions across scenarios of global climate change suggested that only Lutzomyia whitmani is likely to be experiencing dramatic improvements in conditions in south-eastern Brazil| where cutaneous leishmaniasis appears to be re-emerging; Lutzomyia intermedia and Lutzomyia migonei may be seeing more subtle improvements in climatic conditions| but the implications are not straightforward. More generally| this technique offers the possibility of new views into the distributional ecology of disease| vector| and reservoir species. (C) 2003 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6079,2003,2,4,Malaria in Britain: Past| present| and future,There has been much recent speculation that global warming may allow the reestablishment of malaria transmission in previously endemic areas such as Europe and the United States. In this report we analyze temporal trends in malaria in Britain between 1840 and 1910| to assess the potential for reemergence of the disease. Our results demonstrate that at least 20% of the drop-off in malaria was due to increasing cattle population and decreasing acreages of marsh wetlands. Although both rainfall and average temperature were associated with year-to-year variability in death rates| there was no evidence for any association with the long-term malaria trend. Model simulations for future scenarios in Britain suggest that the change in temperature projected to occur by 2050 is likely to cause a proportional increase in local malaria transmission of 8-14%. The current risk is negligible| as >52|000 imported cases since 1953 have not led to any secondary cases. The projected increase in proportional risk is clearly insufficient to lead to the reestablishment of endemicity. 6171,2003,5,4,Mammalian response to global warming on varied temporal scales,Paleontological information was used to evaluate and compare how Rocky Mountain mammalian communities changed during past global warming events characterized by different durations (350| similar to10|000-20|000| and 4 million years) and different per-100-year warming rates (1.0degreesC| 0.1degreesC| 0.06-0.08degreesC| 0.0002-0.0003degreesC per 100 years). Our goals were to determine whether biotic changes observed today are characteristic of or accelerated relative to what took place during past global warming events and to clarify the possible trajectory of mammalian faunal change that climate change may initiate. This determination is complicated because actual warming rates scale inversely with the time during which temperature is measured| and species with different life-history strategies respond (or do not) in different ways. Nevertheless| examination of past global warming episodes suggested that approximately concurrent with warming| a predictable sequence of biotic events occurs at the regional scale of the central and northern United States Rocky Mountains. First| phenotypic and density changes in populations are detectable within 100 years. Extinction of some species| noticeable changes in taxonomic composition of communities| and possibly reduction in species richness follow as warming extends to a few thousand years. Faunal turnover nears 100% and species diversity may increase when warm temperatures last hundreds of thousands to millions of years| because speciation takes place and faunal changes initiated by a variety of shorter-term processes accumulate. Climate-induced faunal changes reported for the current global warming episode probably do not yet exceed the normal background rate| but continued warming during the next few decades| especially combined with the many other pressures of humans on natural ecosystems| has a high probability of producing effects that have not been experienced often| if ever| in mammalian history. 5994,2003,2,4,Management of water resources and low flow estimation for the Himalayan basins of Nepal,Reliable estimates of low flow are extremely important for the monsoonal mountainous areas of the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region as people in this region are facing growing problems of water during dry periods in terms of both quality and quantity. Furthermore| increasing evidence of decrease in snow cover and retreat of glaciers due to global warming have been reported from various parts of the HKH| which has serious implications for low flow in the region. However| reliable methods for low flow are difficult to find and lack of hydrometeorological data have inhibited the development of such methods. This has posed serious problems for sustainable management of water resources systems in the region in view of the difficulties in low flow. This paper also discusses a method for low flow estimation in the mountainous regions of Nepal| which shares with other neighbouring areas the complexity in the nature of the terrain and climate| inadequate hydro-meteorological network and insufficient long-term reliable data on hydrometeorology. The method discussed is based on a method developed in the UK| for estimating the hydrological regime at ungauged sites. Regionalization of the flow has been developed applying multi-variate regression analysis of long-term hydro-meteorological data and catchment characteristics. A number of standardised flow duration type curves have been determined| and regression models of the flows and the topographical and geological characteristics of the catchments were established. The mean flow was estimated using the water balance principle where the long-term mean annual runoff is the difference between long-term average annual precipitation and long-term actual evapotranspiration. Regionalization has been carried out by developing grids of hydrological response. The grids allow the flow regime to be estimated at any point on any stream in the mountainous region of the country. This is the first regional method of this kind to be developed to estimate low flows from ungauged catchments in Nepal. Such a method is of great importance for Nepal as well as for the mountainous regions of other countries of the HKH region| as it allows assessment of water availability for the design of small hydropower| irrigation and water supply schemes| and contributes to the economic development and poverty alleviation. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6279,2003,3,3,Material life cycle assessment for diecasting process,The main emphasis of this study is to evaluate the potential environmental impact of diecasting process| which is one of well organized and kind of green technologies in casting processes. Material life cycle assessment (MLCA) was carried out in actual diecasting factory that produces various lightweight aluminum and magnesium components to obtain life cycle inventory data| quantify environmental impacts and finally try to get solutions for environmental improvement. In diecasting process| most of environmental impacts come from melting of raw materials for abiotic resource depletion and global warming due to burning gas and electricity used. The problem of photochemical oxidant creation is induced by spraying and lubricating steps.
6166,2003,4,4,Measurements of the infrared absorption cross-sections of haloalkanes and their use in a simplified calculational approach for estimating direct global warming potentials,The infrared absorption cross-sections and integrated band intensities (IBIs) for 21 haloalkanes: CFCl3| CF2Cl2| CF2Br2| CH2F2| CHF2Cl| CHF2Br| CF3Br| CHCl2-CF2Cl| CHFCl-CFCl2| CHCl2-CF3| CHClBr-CF3| CHFCl-CF2Cl| CHFBr-CF3| CHF2-CF3| CH2Br-CF3| CH2F-CFCl2| CH2F-CF3| CH3-CCl3| CH3-CFCl2| CH3-CF2-CF3| and CHF2-CH2-CF3 were measured over the wavenumber range 400-1600 cm(-1) at T=295 K. The effect of air pressure on measured spectra was also investigated. These results are used to demonstrate a simple calculational approach for estimating the direct global warming potentials (GWPs) of such chemicals. The results obtained are compared with those derived from more comprehensive atmospheric modeling calculations appearing in the literature. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6055,2003,2,4,Measures of economic impacts of weather extremes - Getting better but far from what is needed - A call for action,One of the primary driving forces behind weather research and development has been the losses caused by weather extremes. Unfortunately| available loss values have been more qualitative than quantitative. There has never been a concerted| organized effort to collect and quality control economic impact data for weather extremes. Numerous studies have been made| resulting in widely varying estimates of losses| and these have been limited by 1) an inability to access certain types of loss data; 2) a lack of attention to indirect| delayed impacts| including benefits; and 3) diverse and inconsistent sources of loss data. Numerous problems have resulted from the poor estimates of loss and lack of understanding of the data uncertainties. Federal relief payments for major events have escalated partly as a result of insufficient data to detect and understand society's changing vulnerability to extremes. Controversies over relief payments for major damaging events have occurred as a result of imprecise loss estimates. The insurance industry suffered major storm-related losses in the 1990s :because it lacked a database on weather-produced losses and was unable to anticipate time-shifting risks in setting rates. The absence of quality impact data has also led to questionable research priorities| and has generated incorrect perceptions in the public and media about the magnitude of impacts of events. The lack of precise loss values also limits adequate planning for future impacts| which is apt to lead to increased losses as society's vulnerability to extremes continues to increase. Recent pressures| including several major weather losses since 1988| and concern over the impacts of more extremes due to global warming| have led to better estimates of impacts. These pressures and government and insurance industry recognition of the need to better understand the ever-increasing costs have led to recent national assessments| calling for better impact data. The nation needs a continuing program to adequately measure losses from natural hazards and to maintain a quality database to guide government policies and private sector actions. 6047,2003,2,4,Mechanisms determining the variability of Arctic sea ice conditions and export,In an ocean - sea ice model of the Arctic and the northern North Atlantic driven with 50-yr NCEP - NCAR reanalysis data| no appreciable trend in sea ice volume is found for the period 1948 - 98. However| rather long subperiods| for example| 1965 - 95| exhibit a large decline in Arctic sea ice volume. These results and the current data situation make connecting "global warming'' to Arctic ice thinning very difficult because the large decadal and multidecadal variability masks any trend. Thermal and wind effects linearly contribute to the total sea ice volume variability. Wind stress forcing significantly contributes to the decadal variability in the Arctic ice volume| affecting both thermodynamic growth and the ice export rate. Ice export events are triggered by enhanced cyclonic wind stress over the eastern Arctic. However| large ice export events depend to a similar degree on the presence of thick ice that is generated in a preceding accumulation phase and do not depend on the local wind conditions around Fram Strait. 6293,2003,2,4,Meteorology and hydrology in yosemite national park: A sensor network application,Over half of California's water supply comes from high elevations in the snowmelt-dominated Sierra Nevada. Natural climate fluctuations| global warming| and the growing needs of water consumers demand intelligent management of this water resource. This requires a comprehensive monitoring system across and within the Sierra Nevada. Unfortunately| because of severe terrain and limited access| few measurements exist. Thus| meteorological and hydrologic processes are not well understood at high altitudes. However| new sensor and wireless communication technologies are beginning to provide sensor packages designed for low maintenance operation| low power consumption and unobtrusive footprints. A prototype network of meteorological and hydrological sensors has been deployed in Yosemite National Park| traversing elevation zones from 1|200 to 3|700 m. Communication techniques must be tailored to suit each location| resulting in a hybrid network of radio| cell-phone| land-line| and satellite transmissions. Results are showing how| in some years| snowmelt may occur quite uniformly over the Sierra| while in others it varies with elevation. 6223,2003,3,3,Methane emission reduction: An application of FUND,Methane is| after carbon dioxide| the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Governments plan to abate methane emissions. A crude set of estimates of reduction costs is included in FUND| an integrated assessment model of climate change. In a cost-benefit analysis| methane emission reduction is found to be instrumental in controlling the optimal rate of climate change. In a cost-effectiveness analysis| methane emission reduction largely replaces carbon dioxide emission reduction. Methane emission reduction reinforces the case for international cooperation in climate policy| but complicates the efficient allocation of emission reduction efforts. Methane emission reduction at the short run does not help to achieve the ultimate objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. 6288,2003,3,4,Methane emissions of beef cattle on forages: Efficiency of grazing management systems,Fermentation in the rumen of cattle produces methane (CH4)Methane may play a role in global warming scenarios. The linking of grazing management strategies to more efficient beef production while reducing the CH4 emitted by beef cattle is important. The sulfur hexalluoride (SF6) tracer technique was used to determine the effects of best management practices (BMP) grazing compared with continuous grazing On CH4 production in several Louisiana forages during 1996-1998. Cows and heifers (Bos taurus) grazed common bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.]| babiagrass (Paspalum notatum Flugge)| and ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.) pastures and were wintered on bahiagrass hay with supplements of protein molasses blocks (PMB)| cottonseed meal and corn (CSMC)| urea and corn (URC)| or limited ryegrass grazing (LRG). Daily CH4 emissions were between 89 and 180 g d(-1) for young growing heifers and 165 to 294 g d(-1) for mature Simbrah cows. Heifers on "ad lib" ryegrass in March and April produced only one-tenth the CH4 per kg of gain as heifers on LRG of 1 h. Using BMP significantly reduced the emission of CH4 per unit of animal weight gain. Management-intensive grazing (MIG) is a BMP that offers the potential for more efficient utilization of grazed forage crops via controlled rotational grazing and more efficient conversion of forage into meat and milk. Projected CH4 annual emissions in cows reflect a 22% reduction from BMP when compared with continuous grazing in this study. With the BMP application of MIG| less methane was produced per kilogram of beef gain. 6005,2003,2,2,Methane emissions of rice increased by elevated carbon dioxide and temperature,Methane (CH4) effluxes by paddy-culture rice (Oryza sativa L.) contribute about 16% of the total anthropogenic emissions. Since radiative forcing of CH4 at current atmospheric concentrations is 21 times greater on a per mole basis than that of carbon dioxide (CO2)| it is imperative that the impact of global change on rice CH4 emissions be evaluated. Rice (cv. IR72) was planted in sunlit| closed-circulation| controlled-environment chambers in which CH4 efflux densities were measured daily. The CO2 concentration was maintained at either 330 or 660 mumol mol(-1). Air temperatures were controlled to daily maxima and minima of 32123| 35/26| and 38/29degreesC at each CO2 treatment. Emissions of CH4 each day were determined during a 4-h period after venting and resealing the chambers at 0800 h. Diurnal CH4 effluxes on 77| 98| and 119 d after planting (DAP) were obtained similarly at 4-h intervals. Emissions over four-plant hills and over flooded bare soil were measured at 53|63| and 100 DAP. Emissions were negligible before 40 DAP. Thereafter| emissions were observed first in high-CO2| high-temperature treatments and reached a sustained maximum efflux density of about 7 mg m(-2) h(-1) (0.17 g m(-2) d(-1)) near the end of the growing season. Total seasonal CH4 emission was fourfold greater for high-CO2| high-temperature treatments than for the low-CO2| low-temperature treatment| probably due to more root sloughing or exudates| since about sixfold more acetate was found in the soil at 71 DAP. Both rising CO2 and increasing temperatures could lead to a positive feedback on global warming by increasing the emissions of CH4 from rice. 6215,2003,2,4,Methodological problems and amendments to demonstrate effects of temperature on the epidemiology of malaria. A new perspective on the highland epidemics in Madagascar| 1972-89,There is a growing consensus that changes in climate will have major consequences for human health through a reduction in the availability of food and an increasing frequency of natural disasters. However| the contribution of higher temperatures to vector-borne diseases| particularly malaria| remains controversial despite the known biological dependence of both vector and pathogen on climate. Misconceptions and inappropriate use of variables and methods have contributed to the controversy. At present there appears to be more support for non-climatic explanations to account for the resurgence of malaria in the African highlands| e.g. the deterioration of malaria control and the development of drug resistance. An attempt is made here to show that dismissing temperature as a driving force in the case of malaria is premature. Using a de-trended time-series of malaria incidence in Madagascar between 1972 and 1989 indicated that a minimum temperature during 2 months at the start of the transmission season can account for most of the variability between years (r(2) = 0.66). These months correspond with the months when the human-vector (Anopheles gambiae sensu lato) contact is greatest. The relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and temperature (r = 0.79)| and ENSO and malaria (r = 0.64)| suggests that there might be an increased epidemic risk during post-Nino years in the Madagascar highlands and therefore warrants increased vigilance and extended control efforts in the first half of 2003. This review suggests that the rejection of climate-disease associations in studies so far published may not have used biologically relevant climate parameters. It highlights the importance of identifying more relevant parameters during critical periods of the transmission season in order to aid epidemic forecasting and to assess the potential impact of global warming. 6314,2003,5,4,Mimomys in North America,The earliest record of the microtine rodent genus Mimomys is from West Siberia| where| over 5 million years ago| it evolved from Promimomys. From western Asia| early Mimomys dispersed both east and west (to North America and to Europe)| arriving at about the same time in both areas as a slightly larger and more evolved form that is essentially identical in both continents. Different species names are applied| as they obviously represent the beginnings of geographically separate lineages. The immigration of Mimomys to North America marks the beginning of the Blancan Mammal Age by original definition. The earliest dated North American record is the Upper Alturas Fauna of California| which is well dated by paleomagnetic stratigraphy| tephra "fingerprinting"| and potassium-argon dating at 4.8 Ma. Lindsay et al. (1999) have supported this age by paleornagnetic stratigraphy in two areas of Nevada. One other known fauna| the Maxum fauna of Contra Costa County| California| contains immigrant Mimomys that may be slightly older| but is not dated. Dispersal of the temperate-climate genus Mimomys between Eurasia and North America was through the Beringian Faunal Region| near the latitude of the Arctic Circle| and later intercontinental continuity of the genus was severely restricted by climate| not water. Other microtine rodents| more tolerant of cooler latitudes| were able to cross the Bering land area and thus integrate the biochronologies of the two continents| but the genus Mimomys is of little use in intercontinental correlation during most of the Pliocene. Eurasia and North America contain many faunal regions| and the temperate United States comprises at least two| separated by the Rocky Mountains. Each faunal region has| to an extent limited by its isolation| unique faunas and a different historic biochronology. Although the first Mimomys immigrants to North America and Europe were very similar| the genus evolved independently on the separate continents for the next 3.4 m.y.| producing species| subgenera| and ultimately| new genera dramatically different in the two areas. During this isolation| separate lineages in the United States resulted in the subgenus M. (Cosomys) and the genus Ophiomys in the Western Faunal Region and in the subgenus M. (Ogmodontomys) and the genus Hibbardomys in the Eastern Faunal Region. Although also climatically constrained| the barrier to dispersal between these two faunal regions of the United States was much less rigorous than in Beringia. Several times taxa dispersed along two documented routes between the Eastern and Western Faunal Regions of the United States: through Yellowstone Pass in western Wyoming and around the southern end of the Rocky Mountains through Arizona and New Mexico. These faunal interchanges are useful in correlating the two regional biochronologies| and times of exchange correlate with the climate changes that made the Rocky Mountains| or the region to the south of it| habitable by temperate Miniomys. About 1.3 Ma| global warming again permitted Mimomys to disperse through Beringia. At or slightly before this second immigration of Mimomys| the descendants of the first immigration had become extinct or had evolved into forms no longer conforming to the diagnosis of Mimomys. The new immigrants are assigned to the Eurasian subgenus Mimomys (Cromeromys) and they are known to have lived well into the Irvingtonian mammal age| less than 0.78 Ma. Present records thus indicate that the genus Mimomys and derived forms lived in the United States for over four million years before they became extinct. 5982,2003,3,4,Mitigation of nitrous oxide emissions in spray-irrigated grazed grassland by treating the soil with dicyandiamide| a nitrification inhibitor,Nitrous oxide (N2O) from animal excreta in grazed pasture systems makes up a significant component (c. 10%) of New Zealand's total greenhouse gas inventory. We report an effective method to decrease N2O emissions from animal urine patches by treating the soil with the nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide (DCD)| in a simulated grazed dairy pasture system under spray irrigation. The soil was a free-draining Lismore stony silt loam (Udic Haplustept loamy skeletal) and the pasture was a mixture of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) and white clover (Trifolium repens). By treating the soil with DCD| N2O emissions were decreased by 76% following urine application in the autumn| from 26.7 kg N2O-N ha(-1) without DCD to an average of 6.4 kg N2O-N ha(-1) with DCD over the 6-month experimental period. N2O flux was decreased by 78% following urine application in the spring| from 18 kg N2O-N ha(-1) without DCD to 3.9 kg N2O-N ha(-1) with the application of DCD over the 3-month period. A single application of DCD immediately after urine was sufficient to effectively mitigate N2O emissions from the urine. The results showed that repeated applications of DCD after urine application| or mixing DCD with urine| offered no advantage over a single application of DCD immediately after urine deposition. 2817,2003,5,4,Mixed carbonate-siliciclastic record on the North African margin (Malta) - coupling of weathering processes and mid Miocene climate,We investigated rock outcrops spanning the middle Miocene| global climate-cooling step on the Maltese Islands in order to reconstruct continental weathering rates and terrigenous fluxes| as well as to explore the coupling between these later| regional climate and carbonate accumulations. Sedimentation at this location was dominated during the Oligocene and early Miocene by a transitional platform to slope carbonates but progressively switched to a clay-rich carbonate slope system in the middle Miocene. Around 13 Ma| an abrupt change toward clay-dominated marls occurred| and marl deposition persisted until the Tortonian (ca. 12 Ma)| when a shallow-water carbonate ramp was reestablished. Clay mineralogy and bulk-rock oxygen isotope analyses suggest that the deposition of the Blue Clay formation was mainly caused by global climate change and related change in the rate of continental weathering. A significant negative correlation (112 0.65) exists between the carbonate content and the 8110 record. This| combined with the variation of mass accumulation rate of terrigenous material| suggests that shorter-term periods of globally cooler climate (Mi events) were associated with higher rates of accumulation in continental-derived material. Since during the Miocene Malta was attached to the North African Margin| we propose that the observed trends were due to a regional increase in rainfall during cooler periods| which consequently increased continental weathering and runoff. We further suggest that this pattern was linked to the perturbation of atmospheric fronts due to an increased thermal gradient during the Miocene. Thus| regional increase in rainfall might have been linked to the northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 6092,2003,2,4,Model study of the thermal storage system by FEHM code,The use of low-temperature geothermal resources is important from the viewpoint of global warming. In order to evaluate various underground projects that use low-temperature geothermal resources| we have estimated the parameters of a typical underground system using the two-well model. By changing the parameters of the system| six different heat extraction scenarios have been studied. One of these six scenarios is recommended because of its small energy loss. (C) 2003 CNR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6236,2003,2,3,Modeled climate-induced glacier change in Glacier National Park| 1850-2100,The glaciers in the Blackfoot-Jackson Glacier Basin of Glacier National Park| Montana| decreased in area from 21.6 square kilometers (km(2)) in 1850 to 7.4km(2) in 1979. Over this same period global temperatures increased by 0.45degreesC (+/- 0.15degreesC). We analyzed the climatic causes and ecological consequences of glacier retreat by creating spatially explicit models of the creation and ablation of glaciers and of the response of vegetation to climate change. We determined the melt rate and spatial distribution of glaciers under two possible future climate scenarios| one based on carbon dioxide-induced global warming and the other on a linear temperature extrapolation. Under the former scenario| all glaciers in the basin will disappear by|the year 2030| despite predicted increases in precipitation; under the latter| melting is slower. Using a second model| we analyzed vegetation responses to variations in soil moisture and increasing temperature in a complex alpine landscape and predicted where plant communities are likely to be located as conditions change. 2714,2003,2,4,Modeling current and future potential wintering distributions of eastern North American monarch butterflies,Monarch butterflies overwinter in restricted areas in montane oyamel fir forests in central Mexico with specific microclimates that allow the butterflies to survive for up to 5 months. We use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to identify areas adequate for overwintering monarch colonies under both current and future climate scenarios. The ENM approach permits testing and validation of model predictivity| and yields quantitative| testable predictions regarding likely future climate change effects. Our models predicted monarch presence with a high degree of accuracy| and indicated that precipitation and diurnal temperature range were key environmental factors in making locations suitable for monarchs. When we projected monarch distribution onto future climate scenarios (Hadley Centre climate models)| we found that conditions were likely to be inadequate across the entire current winter range| particularly owing to increased cool-weather precipitation that could cause increased mortality. This study applies ENM to understanding the seasonal dynamics of a migratory species under climate change| and uses ENM to identify key limiting environmental parameters in species' responses to climate change. 5981,2003,2,4,Modeling shallow autocompaction in coastal marshes using cesium-137 fallout: Preliminary results from the Trinity River Estuary| Texas,Accurate prediction of changes in the relative elevation of coastal marsh surfaces has gained considerable importance in light of global-warming-induced sea-level rise. Shallow autocompaction is an important component of elevation change that acts to decrease relative elevation. Unlike vertical accretion| which can be determined from repeated surveys of artificial marker horizons| autocompaction is difficult to measure. This report presents the results of a preliminary study that uses cesium-137 dating and down-core measurements of sediment bulk density to numerically model vertical accretion| shallow autocompaction and surface elevation change. The models produce vertical accretion rates that are comparable to rates derived from artificial marker horizons| and long-term surface elevation changes that are in close agreement with sedimentation rates based on cesium-137 dating of well-compacted sediment. The model results suggest that average annual vertical accretion may be higher than average annual surface elevation change by a factor of 1.6 to 21. Sedimentation rates derived from cesium-137 dating also are higher than average annual surface elevation change by a factor of 1.1 to 4.7. These findings suggest that sedimentation rates based on cesium-137 dating will tend to be lower than vertical accretion and higher than long-term surface elevation change. The results of the study re-emphasize the importance of fully accounting for shallow autocompaction when attempting to predict marsh surface elevation change. 2720,2003,4,4,Modeling soil carbon from forest and pasture ecosystems of Amazon| Brazil,Conversion of tropical forest to agricultural management has important implications for C storage in soils and global climate change. The Nova Vida Ranch in the Western Brazilian Amazon basin provided a unique opportunity to study the conversion of tropical forests to pastures established in 1989| 1987| 1983| 1979| 1972| 1951| and 1911| in comparison with uncleared forest. Soils were analyzed for organic C| bulk density| total N| pH| clay content| and biomass C. The forest soil contained 34 Mg C ha(-1) in the 0- to 30-cm layer: modeling clearance and conversion to pasture caused an initial fall in the C stock| followed by a slow rise. After 88 yr| the pasture soil contained 53% more C than the forest soil. The increase in total N on conversion to pasture was less marked| which led to C/N ratios in the pasture soils being higher than in the forest soil. The Rothamsted C turnover model (RothC-26.3) was used to simulate changes in the 0- to 10- and 0- to 30-cm layer of soils when forest was converted to pasture. The model predicted that conversion to pasture would cause a 54% increase in the stock of organic C in the top 30 cm of soil in 100 yr. The modeled input of plant C to the 0- to 30-cm layer of soil under pasture was assumed to be 8.28 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1). The model provided a reasonable estimate of the microbial biomass (BIO) C in the 0- to 10-cm soil layer. This was an independent test of model performance| because no adjustments were made to the model to generate output. 6206,2003,4,4,Modeling soil organic carbon change in croplands of China,Using 1990 conditions| we modeled carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) biogeochemical cycles in croplands of China (and| for comparison| the United States) to estimate the annual soil organic-carbon (SOC) balance for all cropland. Overall| we estimate that China's croplands lost 1|.6% of their SOC (to a depth of 0.3 in) in 1990| and that U.S. cropland lost 0.1%. A key element in this difference was that similar to25% of aboveground crop residue in China was returned to the soil| compared to similar to90% in the United States. In China| SOC losses were greatest in the northeast (similar to10(3) kg C.ha(-1).yr(-1))| and were generally smaller (<0.5 X 10(3) kg C.ha(-1).yr(-1)) in regions with a longer cultivation history. Some regions showed SOC gains| generally <10(3) kg C.ha(-1).yr(-1). Reduced organic-matter input to China's cropland soils| and lower overall SOC levels in those soils| led to lower levels of N mineralization in the simulations| consistent with higher rates of synthetic-fertilizer application in China. C and N cycles are closely linked to soil fertility| crop yield| and non-point-source environmental pollution. 6098,2003,2,4,Modelling leaf gas exchanges to predict functional trends in Mediterranean Quercus ilex forest under climatic changes in temperature,A simple model based on the "big leaf" assumption and calibrated with field eco-physiological measures of gas exchanges is used to simulate the effects of temperature increase on net primary production| total canopy transpiration and the dimensionless decoupling coefficient Omega of Holm oak forests. Two different annual average air temperatures: 14.6 and 18.0degreesC are considered| they are respectively the average current temperature and the one expected in the next 50 years in the Mediterranean area if the trend of global warming will continue. The model simulates the behaviour of the three parameters by assuming no changes in the effects of water constraints at both the temperatures. The model has been implemented by STELLA((R)) II software. According to the model| the increase of air temperature affects both the net primary productivity (6.3%) and the water losses by canopy transpiration (37.2%). The model predicts an average decoupling factor| Omega| of about 0.26 at both temperatures of 14.6 and 18.0degreesC. This value is in the range between Heathlands and Forest| suggesting that at the average annual temperature of 18.0degreesC the Holm oak forest will start to respond in a similar way to more xeric plant communities. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6097,2003,2,2,Modelling the impacts of climate change and methane emission reductions on rice production: a review,Rice agriculture is not only affected by climate change| but also contributes to global warming through the release of methane into the atmosphere. In 1989| a major research project was initiated at the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines to investigate relationships between climate change and rice production. A second project started in 1993 to investigate| in more detail| mitigation options that could be employed to help reduce CH(4) emissions from rice cultivation. An important component of all of this work was the quantification of these interactions between climate change and rice production into simulation models| and their subsequent use to upscale field measurements to national and regional levels. The first project developed such a model to integrate existing knowledge of effects of increased levels of CO(2) and temperature on rice growth| and used this to predict the impact of various climate change scenarios on rice production in SE Asia. In the second project| routines describing the dynamics of CH(4) production and emission from the soil were linked to a crop simulation model to estimate the effect of different crop management scenarios on national CH(4) emissions from various countries in the region. With the recent completion of the second project| it is timely to review this modelling work describing the relationships between the global environment and rice production| a task which we attempt in the present paper. The advantages and disadvantages of the modelling approaches used and other issues relating to the upscaling of field measurements to national and regional levels are discussed. Future research directions in this area are also identified. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6270,2003,3,3,Models to predict emissions of health-damaging pollutants and global warming contributions of residential fuel/stove combinations in China,Residential energy use in developing countries has traditionally been associated with combustion devices of poor energy efficiency| which have been shown to produce substantial health-damaging pollution| contributing significantly to the global burden of disease| and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Precision of these estimates in China has been hampered by limited data on stove use and fuel consumption in residences. In addition limited information is available on variability of emissions of pollutants from different stove/fuel combinations in typical use| as measurement of emission factors requires measurement of multiple chemical species in complex burn cycle tests. Such measurements are too costly and time consuming for application in conjunction with national surveys. Emissions of most of the major health-damaging pollutants (HDP) and many of the gases that contribute to GHG emissions from cooking stoves are the result of the significant portion of fuel carbon that is diverted to products of incomplete combustion (PIC) as a result of poor combustion efficiencies. The approximately linear increase in emissions of PIC with decreasing combustion efficiencies allows development of linear models to predict emissions of GHG and HDP intrinsically linked to CO2 and PIC production| and ultimately allows the prediction of global warming contributions from residential stove emissions. A comprehensive emissions database of three burn cycles of 23 typical fuel/stove combinations tested in a simulated village house in China has been used to develop models to predict emissions of HDP and global warming commitment (GWC) from cooking stoves in China| that rely on simple survey information on stove and fuel use that may be incorporated into national surveys. Stepwise regression models predicted 66% of the variance in global warming commitment (CO2| CO| CH4| NOx| TNMHC) per 1 MJ delivered energy due to emissions from these stoves if survey information on fuel type was available. Subsequently if stove type is known| stepwise regression models predicted 73% of the variance. Integrated assessment of policies to change stove or fuel type requires that implications for environmental impacts| energy efficiency| global warming and human exposures to HDP emissions can be evaluated. Frequently| this involves measurement of TSP or CO as the major HDPs. Incorporation of this information into models to predict GWC predicted 79% and 78% of the variance respectively. Clearly| however| the complexity of making multiple measurements in conjunction with a national survey would be both expensive and time consuming. Thus| models to predict HDP using simple survey information| and with measurement of either CO/CO2 or TSP/CO2 to predict emission factors for the other HDP have been derived. Stepwise regression models predicted 65% of the variance in emissions of total suspended particulate as grams of carbon (TSPC) per 1 MJ delivered if survey information on fuel and stove type was available and 74% if the CO/CO2 ratio was measured. Similarly stepwise regression models predicted 76% of the variance in COC emissions per MJ delivered with survey information on stove and fuel type and 85% if the TSPC/CO2 ratio was measured. Ultimately| with international agreements on emissions trading frameworks| similar models based on extensive databases of the fate of fuel carbon during combustion from representative household stoves would provide a mechanism for computing greenhouse credits in the residential sector as part of clean development mechanism frameworks and monitoring compliance to control regimes. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2705,2003,2,1,Modern global climate change,Modern climate change is dominated by human influences| which are now large enough to exceed the bounds of natural variability. The main source of global climate change is human-induced changes in atmospheric composition. These perturbations primarily result from emissions associated with energy use| but on local and regional scales| urbanization and land use changes are also important. Although there has been progress in monitoring and understanding climate change| there remain many scientific| technical| and institutional impediments to precisely planning for| adapting to| and mitigating the effects of climate change. There is still considerable uncertainty about the rates of change that can be expected| but it is clear that these changes will be increasingly manifested in important and tangible ways| such as changes in extremes of temperature and precipitation| decreases in seasonal and perennial snow and ice extent| and sea level rise. Anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue for many centuries. We are venturing into the unknown with climate| and its associated impacts could be quite disruptive. 2758,2003,2,4,Modifiers of the temperature and mortality association in seven US cities,This paper examines effect modification of heat- and cold-related mortality in seven US cities in 1986-1993. City-specific Poisson regression analyses of daily noninjury mortality were fit with predictors of mean daily apparent temperature (a construct reflecting physiologic effects of temperature and humidity)| time| barometric pressure| day of the week| and particulate matter less than 10 mum in aerodynamic diameter. Percentage change in mortality was calculated at 29degreesC apparent temperature (lag 0) and at -5degreesC (mean of lags 1| 2| and 3) relative to 15degreesC. Separate models were fit to death counts stratified by age| race| gender| education| and place of death. Effect estimates were combined across cities| treating city as a random effect. Deaths among Blacks compared with Whites| deaths among the less educated| and deaths outside a hospital were more strongly associated with hot and cold temperatures| but gender made no difference. Stronger cold associations were found for those less than age 65 years| but heat effects did not vary by age. The strongest effect modifier was place of death for heat| with out-of-hospital effects more than five times greater than in-hospital deaths| supporting the biologic plausibility of the associations. Place of death| race| and educational attainment indicate vulnerability to temperature-related mortality| reflecting inequities in health impacts related to climate change. 6192,2003,2,4,Monsoon variability in the Himalayas under the condition of global warming,An ice core-drilling program was carried out at the accumulation area of Dasuopu glacier (28degrees23'N| 85degrees43'E| 7100 m a.s.l.) in the central Himalayas in 1997. The ice core was analyzed continuously for stable isotopes (delta(18)O)| and major ions throughout the core. Cycles indicated by delta(18)O| cations were identified and counted as seasonal fluctuations as annual increment from maximum to maximum values. Reconstructed 300-year annual net accumulation (water equivalent) from the core| with a good correlation to Indian monsoon| reflects a major precipitation trend in the central Himalayas. The accumulation trend| separated from the time series| shows a strong negative correlation to Northern Hemisphere temperature. Generally| as northern hemisphere temperature increases 0.1degreesC| the accumulation decreases about 80 nun| reflecting monsoon rainfall in the central Himalayas has decreased over the past decades in the condition of global warming. 5993,2003,2,4,Mountain and subpolar glaciers show an increase in sensitivity to climate warming and intensification of the water cycle,The time-series of all available records of seasonal and annual glacier mass balances| equilibrium line altitude| accumulation area ratio and change in surface area of about 300 glaciers have been compiled| digitized| quality checked and analyzed over the period of almost four decades (1961 - 1998). These time-series show significant changes towards loss in glacier area and volume in global scale with accelerated rate| especially since the end of 1980's. The remarkable feature in this change is the increase of both winter and summer balances| which implies that glaciers are intensifying the water cycle in time of global warming. The sensitivity of glacier mass balance in regard to temperature and precipitation has also increased which resulted in an increase of glacier contribution to sea level rise from 0.15 mm/yr in 1961 - 1976 (10% of total sea-level rise) to 0.41 mm/yr in 1988 - 1998 (27% of total sea-level rise). Glacier contribution to the ocean has the potential to grow due to increasing snow accumulation and involving into the water cycle larger areas of individual glaciers around the Antarctic ice sheet. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2822,2003,4,4,Multi-resolution time series analysis applied to solar irradiance and climate reconstructions,A better understanding of natural climate variability is crucial for global climate change studies and the evaluation of the sensitivity of the climate system to imposed perturbations. External forcing factors might contribute substantially to both high and low frequency variations in climate but a clear separation of their impact from internally generated fluctuations is difficult. We employ wavelet decomposition to identify common characteristics in forcing and climatic time series of the last four centuries. Here| we focus on solar irradiance variations by applying this statistical method to a selection of widely used proxy-based reconstructions. Major variability components are isolated through time-scale decomposition. Two classical solar modes (85 and 11 years) are not only identified within the limited time period covered by the solar datasets| but their relative influences on climate as represented by hemispheric surface temperature reconstructions are also estimated. While the low-frequency component shows close ties between solar variations and surface climate| a relationship between the 11-year sunspot cycle and temperature reconstructions is more difficult to attribute. However| the statistical multi-resolution analysis appears to be an ideal tool to uncover relationships and their changes at different temporal scales normally hidden by the strong background noise in the climate system. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 2780,2003,2,4,Multidecadal trends in North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stocks and climate trends relevant to juvenile survival,Landings of North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over the past century show multidecadal patterns| which most recently characterize unprecedented declines in abundance. Stock size is compared with sea surface temperature (SST) data in the marine nurseries of post-smolt Atlantic salmon. A previously described correlation between stock abundance and winter SST conditions was again documented; however| of more relevance to the survival of salmon post-smolts| a correlation was also observed between abundance and spring SST in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The relevance of the winter SST correlation was further investigated by considering winter conditions in the freshwater nurseries as a factor causing elevated overwintering mortality of pre-migrant parr. The salmon abundance time series was compared with air temperature and rainfall trends averaged over time and space. Air temperature and rainfall do not appear to be significant environmental variables in shaping salmon recruitment. The timing of smolt runs appears to be out of synchronization with ocean conditions in the post-smolt nursery areas. The relationship between marine and freshwater impacts may change with changing climate conditions. Persistent positive phase forcing in the North Atlantic Oscillation raises the concern that recent declines in Atlantic salmon are| in part| due to global climate change. 2811,2003,4,4,New distributional modelling approaches for gap analysis,Synthetic products based on biodiversity information such as gap analysis depend critically on accurate models of species' geographic distributions that simultaneously minimize error in both overprediction and omission. We compared current gap methodologies| as exemplified by the distributional models used in the Maine Gap Analysis project| with an alternative approach| the geographic projections of ecological niche models developed using the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP). Point-occurrence data were used to develop GARP models based on the same environmental data layers as were used in the gap project| and independent occurrence data used to test both methods. Gap models performed better in avoiding omission error| but GARP better avoided errors of overprediction. Advantages of the point-based approach| and strategies for its incorporation into current gap efforts are discussed. 6238,2003,4,4,New evidence for effects of land cover in China on summer climate,The effects of land cover in different regions of China on summer climate are studied by lagged correlation analysis using NOAA/AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data for the period of 1981-1994 and temperature| precipitation data of 160 meteorological stations in China. The results show that the correlation coefficients between NDVI in previous season and summer precipitation are positive in most regions of China| and the lagged correlations show a significant difference between regions. The stronger correlations between NDVI in previous winter and precipitation in summer occur in Central China and the Tibetan Plateau| and the correlations between spring NDVI and summer precipitation in the eastern arid/semi-arid region and the Tibetan Plateau are more significant. Vegetation changes have more sensitive feedback effects on climate in the three regions (eastern arid/semi-arid region| Central China and Tibetan Plateau). The lagged correlations between NDVI and precipitation suggest that| on interannual time scales| land cover affects summer precipitation to a certain extent. The correlations between NDVI in previous season and summer temperature show more complex| and the lagged responses of temperature to vegetation are weaker compared with precipitation| and they are possibly related to the global warming which partly cover up the correlations. 5968,2003,2,4,Nitrogen and phosphorus resorption efficiency and proficiency in six sub-arctic bog species after 4 years of nitrogen fertilization,1 Plant growth at high-latitude sites is usually strongly nutrient-limited. The increased nutrient availability predicted in response to global warming may affect internal plant nutrient cycling| including nutrient resorption from senescing leaves. 2 The effect of increased N supply (10 g N m(-2) year(-1)) on nitrogen and phosphorus resorption efficiency and proficiency in six sub-arctic bog species| belonging to four different growth-forms| was studied in northern Sweden. 3 We hypothesized that while increased N supply would not affect N or P resorption efficiency| it would lead to lower N resorption proficiency (higher N concentrations in leaf litter) and higher P resorption proficiency (lower P concentrations in leaf litter). We also investigated whether the basis on which resorption was expressed (leaf mass| leaf area or unit leaf) influenced the patterns observed. 4 Contrasting with our hypothesis| a general trend of decreased N resorption efficiency occurred in response to increased N supply| but the expected decrease in N resorption proficiency was seen in all species except Betula nana. 5 P resorption efficiency did not change in four species (B. nana| Empetrum hermaphroditum| Eriophorum vaginatum and Rubus chamaemorus) but it decreased in Andromeda polifolia| and increased in Vaccinium uliginosum. P resorption proficiency showed the expected increase in only two species (B. nana and V. uliginosum). 6 Apart from P resorption efficiency| the different calculation methods generally produced similar responses of resorption efficiency and proficiency to N supply. 7 Increased N supply at high-latitude sites clearly leads to more N being returned to the soil through leaf litter production. However| decomposition of such litter will probably become P-limited. 8 Considerable interspecific differences in nutrient resorption proficiency were found| indicating that long-term changes in vegetation composition need to be considered when evaluating plant-mediated effects on ecosystem nutrient cycling in response to increased nutrient supply. 2744,2003,2,2,Nitrous oxide emissions from grass swards during the eighth year of elevated atmospheric pCO(2) (Swiss FACE),Emissions of N-2 O were measured during the growth season over a year from grass swards under ambient (360 muL L-1 ) and elevated (600 muL L-1 ) CO2 partial pressures at the Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experiment| Eschikon| Switzerland. Measurements were made following high (56 g N m(-2) yr(-1) ) and low (14 g N m(-2) yr(-1) ) rates of fertilizer application| split over 5 re-growth periods| to Lolium perenne | Trifolium repens and mixed Lolium /Trifolium swards. Elevated p CO2 increased annual emissions of N-2 O from the high fertilized Lolium and mixed Lolium /Trifolium swards resulting in increases in GWP (N-2 O emissions) of 179 and 111 g CO2 equivalents m(-2) | respectively| compared with the GWP of ambient p CO2 swards| but had no significant effect on annual emissions from Trifolium monoculture swards. The greater emissions from the high fertilized elevated p CO2 Lolium swards were attributed to greater below-ground C allocation under elevated p CO2 providing the energy for denitrification in the presence of excess mineral N. An annual emission of 959 mg N-2 O-N m(-2) yr(-1) (1.7% of fertilizer N applied) was measured from the high fertilized Lolium sward under elevated p CO2 . The magnitude of emissions varied throughout the year with 84% of the total emission from the elevated p CO2 Lolium swards measured during the first two re-growths (April-June 2001). This was associated with higher rainfall and soil water contents at this time of year. Trends in emissions varied between the first two re-growths (April-June 2001) and the third| fourth and fifth re-growths (late June-October 2000)| with available soil NO3 (-) and rainfall explaining 70%| and soil water content explaining 72% of the variability in N-2 O in these periods| respectively. Caution is therefore required when extrapolating from short-term measurements to predict long-term responses to global climate change. Our findings are of global significance as increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 may| depending on sward composition and fertilizer management| increase greenhouse gas emissions of N-2 O| thereby exacerbating the forcing effect of elevated CO2 on global climate. Our results suggest that when applying high rates of N fertilizer to grassland systems| Trifolium repens swards| or a greater component of Trifolium in mixed swards| may minimize the negative effect of continued increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations on global warming. 6102,2003,2,4,Nitrous oxide flux to the atmosphere from the littoral zone of a boreal lake,[1] The surface-atmospheric exchange of nitrous oxide (N2O) was investigated in the vegetated littoral zone of a eutrophied midboreal lake (Lake Kevaton| Finland) with a static chamber technique. During a dry summer (three to six samplings per site)| the meadow site and two marsh sites in the temporarily flooded eulittoral zone and the Phragmites australis-dominated site in the continuously flooded infralittoral zone had mean daytime N2O-N emissions from 11 +/- 7 to 22 +/- 7 mug m(-2) h(-1)| whereas the Nuphar lutea-dominated site in the infralittoral zone had a mean N2O flux close to zero. During a wet summer (13-14 samplings per site)| the mean daytime N2O-N fluxes ranged from 4 +/- 1 to 15 +/- 5 mg m(-2) h(-1) at the three eulittoral sites and were negligible at the two infralittoral sites. The littoral zone occupied 26% of the lake area but was estimated to account for most of the N2O emissions from the lake. The studied eulittoral zone| which did not have adjacent nitrogen fertilization| exhibited higher N2O emissions during the summer than seen in northern natural ecosystems in general| including peatlands| forests| and the pelagic regions of lakes. Thus in lake-rich landscapes the littoral zone and other lake-associated wetlands must be considered as potential sources of atmospheric N2O. An assessment of their atmospheric importance requires further data on the N2O fluxes and their regulation in different littoral areas and on the total littoral coverage| neither of which is yet available. 6274,2003,4,4,Nitrous oxide| dinitrogen and methane emission in a subsurface flow constructed wetland,N2O| N-2 and CH4 fluxes were measured from a horizontal subsurface flow (HSSF) constructed wetland (CW) for wastewater treatment in Estonia. The closed chamber method was used in the field and the He-O method (intact soil core analyses) in the lab throughout the period from October 2001 to June 2002. The average flux of N2O-N| N-2-N and CH4-C from various microsites ranged from 0.1 to 59| 4.1 to 1|458 and -0.04 to 2|094 mg m(-2) d(-1)| respectively. A significantly higher flux of N2O was found in chambers installed above the inlet pipes| while the methane flux was higher in the inlet part of the bed with wetter conditions. The groundwater table significantly correlates with gas emission rates of all the gases studied; N-2 emission was enhanced by higher temperature of wastewater. PO43- and NH4+ content significantly enhanced| and NO2- and NO3- content inhibited| both N2O and CH4 fluxes. NH4+ showed a negative correlation with N-2 flux. Nitrification and denitrification are the main processes of the N removal in the CW covering 42.9%. The specific global warming potential was highest in the wet bed and lowest in the dry bed with lowered water table (32 and 9g CO2 pe(-1) d(-1)| respectively). 6310,2003,3,4,Normalisation figures for environmental life-cycle assessment The Netherlands (1997/1998)| Western Europe (1995) and the world (1990 and 1995),Normalisation provides a measure of the relative contribution from a product system to one or more environmental problems. Total yearly emissions for a reference year in a reference region are normally used to calculate normalisation figures. This paper provides up-to-date normalisation figures for the Netherlands in 1997/1998| Western Europe in 1995 and the world in 1990 and 1995. Impact categories considered were depletion of abiotic resources| land competition| global warming| stratospheric ozone depletion| acidification| eutrophication| photochemical ozone formation| radiation and toxicity. In all cases| a limited set of emissions or extractions are dominant contributors to the normalisation scores. Although much effort was spent on collecting emissions data and characterisation factors| particularly normalisation scores for radiation and toxicity remain considerably uncertain. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5992,2003,4,4,North Pacific Intermediate Water response to a modern climate warming shift,[ 1] Oceanic observations and an isopycnal ocean model simulation are used to investigate the response of North Pacific Intermediate Water ( NPIW) to atmospheric forcing associated with the well- known 1976 - 1977 climate regime shift to a warm regime. The model reproduces numerous features of NPIW including distribution| depth| temperature| and salinity. Changes in NPIW associated with the climate shift in the California coastal region were strongly influenced by an anomalous poleward flow at depth ( 300 - 1100 m). This current transports old| high salinity| low oxygen intermediate waters from the northern tropics to the midlatitudes. For depths below the mixed layer| the model reproduces observed changes in salinity| nitrates| and| to some extent| oxygen| thus suggesting that advective/ diffusive processes are dominant in determining their concentrations below 300 m| isolated from the surface effects of direct atmospheric forcing and biological processes. These changes are structurally similar to those induced by much larger| abrupt climate changes at the end of the last glacial episode. 6259,2003,2,4,Northern hemisphere photosynthetic trends 1982-99,We examined trends in the averaged May-September AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 1999 for the northern hemisphere. NDVI is closely related to the amount of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation; hence| trends in NDVI reflect trends in photosynthetic activity of land-surface vegetation. Linear and nonlinear trend analysis techniques were applied to four differently processed and corrected Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) NDVI data sets. The results were compared in order to evaluate the effects of trends in NDVI unrelated to vegetation activity. We consistently found significant positive trends in averaged NDVI for latitude bands above 35degreesN in all but one data set; this one data set lacked corrections for sensor drift and instrument calibration. An impressive improvement in data quality was achieved by applying calibration and corrections for atmospheric effects. Conservative estimates of the trends over the 1982-99 period range from 0.0015 to 0.0045 NDVI units year(-1) for global latitude bands from 35 to 75degreesN| with trends generally higher in the 1990s than in the 1980s; trends in NDVI were larger than trends explained by artefacts. In the 1980s| North American and Eurasian trends were roughly comparable| whereas in the 1990s the North American trends were generally higher. A pixel-level analysis shows the trends to be widespread| with large areas of Canada| Europe and northern Asia experiencing significant positive increases across all vegetated landcovers. 2756,2003,4,4,Northern hemispheric NDVI variations associated with large-scale climate indices in spring,Large-scale atmospheric systems| such as the Southern Oscillation| North Atlantic Oscillation| and so on| are important climatic change indicators over the northern hemisphere. These systems play essential roles in regional-to-continental scale climate fluctuation and vegetation activity in response to global change. Using the Pathfinder AVHRR NDVI (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data for the period 1982-2000| the authors investigated the relationship of the inter-annual variations of spring NDVI to nine large-scale climate indices. On average| 57.2% of the satellite-sensed NDVI variance was explained. These climate indices also accounted for a large portion of the trends in NDVI as observed in five regions| namely| north-west North America (climate-related trend was 18.2%/10 years)| south-eastern North America (5.8%/10 years)| Europe (6.9%/10 years)| high-latitude Asia (12.4%/10 years)| and East Asia (8.0%/10 years). The results are useful for understanding and predicting the regional-to-continental NDVI variations in response to global climate change. 6199,2003,3,3,Numerical analysis of the source-sink alternation of composite global warming potential of the paddy ecosystem in the Yangtze Delta,By coupling the biogeochemical model With plant ecological model| a model Was established to reveal the principle of the composite global warming potential transformation in the paddy ecosystem. Validation of the model with the observed data indicated that|the model can simulate both the crop growth processes and emissions of CH4| and N2O accurately. Some numerical analyses were made to identify the impacts of different fertilizer application on assimilation Of CO2 and emissions of CH4 and N2O| and the transformation principle of the composite global warming potential. Based on the results of the numerical analysis| the source-sink alternation of composite global warming potential in the paddy ecosystem was discovered| and some new conceptions of fertilizer index such as maximum-sink fertilizer| zero-emission fertilizer are put forward in this paper. The fertilizer scheme for Yangtze Delta was proposed to provide the important scientific basis for a sustainable agriculture in this region. 6300,2003,3,2,Oceanic iron fertilization: one of strategies for sequestration atmospheric CO2,Carbon cycle is connected with the most important environmental issue of Global Change. As one of the major carbon reservoirs| oceans play an important part in the carbon cycle. In recent years| iron seems to give us a good news that oceanic iron fertilization could stimulate biological productivity as CO2 sink of human-produced CO2. Oceanic iron fertilization experiments have verified that adding iron into high nutrient low chlorophyll (HNLC) seawaters can increase phytoplankton production and export organic carbon| and hence increase carbon sink of anthropogenic CO2| to reduce global warming. In sixty days| the export organic carbon could reach 10 000 times for adding iron by model prediction and in situ experiment| i.e. the atmospheric CO2 uptake and inorganic carbon drawdown in upper seawaters also have the same magnitude. Therefore| oceanic iron fertilization is one of the strategies for increasing carbon sink of anthropogenic CO2. The paper is focused on the iron fertilization| especially in situ ocean iron experiments in order that the future research is more efficient. 2788,2003,3,3,Offsetting global CO2 emissions by restoration of degraded soils and intensification of world agriculture and forestry,Increase in atmospheric concentration Of CO2 from 285 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 1850 to 370ppm in 2000 is attributed to emissions of 270+/-30 Pg carbon (C) from fossil fuel combustion and 136+/-55 Pg C by land-use change. Present levels of anthropogenic emissions involve 6.3 Pg C by fossil fuel emissions and 1.8 Pg C by land-use change. Out of the historic loss of terrestrial C pool of 136+/-55 Pg| 78+/-12 Pg is due to depletion of soil organic carbon (SOC) pool comprising 26+/-9 Pg due to accelerated soil erosion. A large proportion of the historic SOC lost can be resequestered by enhancing the SOC pool through converting to an appropriate land use and adopting recommended management practices (RMPs). The strategy is to return biomass to the soil in excess of the mineralization capacity through restoration of degraded/desertified soils and intensification of agricultural and forestry lands. Technological options for agricultural intensification include conservation tillage and residue mulching| integrated nutrient management| crop rotations involving cover crops| practices which enhance the efficiency of water| plant nutrients and energy use| improved pasture and tree species| controlled grazing| and judicious use of inptus. The potential of SOC sequestration is estimated at 1-2 Pg C yr(-1) for the world| 0.3-0-6 Pg C yr(-1) for Asia| 0.2-0-5 Pg C yr(-1) for Africa and 0.1-0.3 Pg C yr(-1) for North and Central America and South America| 0.1-0.3 Pg C yr(-1) for Europe and 0.1-0.2 Po C yr(-1) for Oceania. Soil C sequestration is a win-win strategy; it enhances productivity| improves environment moderation capacity| and mitigates global warming. Copyright) (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons| Ltd. 6154,2003,2,4,On destructive Canadian prairie windstorms and severe winters - A climatological assessment in the context of global warming,Raw data on tornadoes and other destructive windstorms in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan| Canada| are analyzed for spatial variations and time trends. All storms and a subclass of intense storms are analyzed separately. Statistics Canada agriculture census data are used to correct storm frequencies for the absence of reports from unoccupied land| for sampling network drift| and for changes in farm numbers and sizes. These corrections eliminate an apparent tornado spatial frequency maximum in central Alberta and reveal a minor temporal frequency maximum from 1906 to 1940 followed by no apparent trend in time for all intense storms. The frequencies of reports of severe winters in rural community histories of Alberta and Saskatchewan are compared with mean winter temperatures at Edmonton and with a severe winter index derived from temperature and snowfall data. All temperature data were corrected for urban heat island warming by an adaptation of Oke's proposed logarithmic relation between heat island intensity and urban population. The index identifies in correct order of importance the three most frequently mentioned severe winters of 1907| 1920 and 1936. Ten-year averages of mean winter temperatures and the severe winter index from 1882 to 2001 seem to show wavelike time changes rather than a long-term trend. 2725,2003,2,4,On the relation between ENSO and global climate change,Two lines of research into climate change and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) converge on the conclusion that changes in ENSO statistics occur as a response to global climate (temperature) fluctuations. One approach focuses on the statistics of temperature fluctuations interpreted within the framework of random walks. The second is based on the discovery of correlation between the recurrence frequency of El Nino and temperature change| while developing physical arguments to explain several phenomena associated with changes in El Nino frequency. Consideration of both perspectives leads to greater confidence in| and guidance for| the physical interpretation of the relationship between ENSO and global climate change. Topics considered include global dynamics of ENSO| ENSO triggers| and climate prediction and predictability. 5988,2003,2,4,On the relationship between global warming| local warming in the Netherlands and changes in circulation in the 20th century,The temperature in De Bilt in the Netherlands has risen by 1 K over the 20th century. This rise parallels the rise in global temperature quite closely| albeit with a slightly higher amplitude. A linear relationship between the two| with a regression coefficient close to one| is an obvious first-order approximation. This is supported by the spatial homogeneity of global warming during the 20th century| the lack of seasonality in the temperature rise| and the residuals being almost white in time. The wind direction is used as a proxy for circulation type. Locally measured wind direction gives the same results as geostrophic wind direction from pressure stations| so that systematic errors are not likely to be large. The temperature in the Netherlands| on the edge of the continent| strongly depends on the wind direction. For most wind directions and seasons the average temperature per wind direction has increased. The exception is northeasterly winds in winter| in which the variability is too large to observe a trend. The increased temperature for each wind direction can explain the observed temperature rise in all seasons within the 95% error estimates. Changes in the distribution of wind directions explain most of the interannual variability of temperature. On longer time scales| these changes have led to cooler weather in the middle of the century| but no trend is discernible over the whole century. However| in late winter and spring there is clear evidence for a change in the frequency distribution of circulation patterns affecting the Netherlands over the second half of the 20th century. During the months of February to April| more days with southwesterly wind and fewer with northeasterlies have increased the temperature even more than the observed increase in temperature per wind direction. Copyright (C) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society. 6132,2003,2,3,On the secular trends in sea ice extent over the antarctic region based on OCEANSAT-1 MSMR observations,Space-based passive microwave radiometers have been used to monitor southern ocean sea ice characteristics over the Antarctic region for the last 25 years. Decade-long observations from SMMR onboard Nimbus-7 during 1978-1987 indicated significant long-term trends in sea ice cover over different regions of the southern polar ocean| in addition to the strong seasonal and interannual variability in various sea ice characteristics. In the post-SMMR era| passive microwave monitoring of the polar region has continued with the availability of SSM/I onboard DMSP series of satellites. With the launch of MSMR onboard India's OCEANSAT-1 in May 1999| an independent set of multi channel passive microwave observations of the Antarctic and Arctic sea ice have become available. In this paper| we present the analysis of the first two years of MSMR observed brightness temperatures to infer sea ice extent over the Antarctic region. The analysis brings out the characteristic seasonal variability of sea ice extents over different sectors of the Southern Polar Ocean. The annual average sea ice extent values esimated from MSMR for 1999-2001 for important regions| e.g. the Weddell Sea and Ross Sea sectors| are found to be significantly different compared to the average values observed through SMMR. The MSMR estimates suggest a continuation of the secular trends observed during the SMMR period. The trend in the sea ice extent over the Antarctic region as a whole was observed to be slightly positive (0.043 million km(2) per year). The MSMR estimates of the sea ice extent over the entire Southern Ocean region| of 12.634 million km(2) during 1999-2001| support the continuation of the secular increase observed during the SMMR as well as SSM/I periods. The observed increasing trend in sea ice extent derived from SMMR and MSMR data is discussed along with some more recent estimates derived from SSM/I measurements| with possible indications of an acceleration in time. In the current greenhouse induced global warming scenario| with amplified warming over the polar region| this represents an intriguing result requiring continued investigations. 6076,2003,4,4,On the variation of frequency-based rainfall amounts: a case study for evaluating recent extreme rainfalls in Korea,Extreme rainfall events recently occurring in Korea have been shown to change frequency-based rainfall amounts quite significantly. Regardless of the reason for these extremes| the general concern of most hydrologists is how to handle these events for practical applications in Hydrology. Our study aim is to evaluate these extremes with their effect on frequency-based rainfall amounts| especially if they can be assumed to be within normal levels. As there is no commonly accepted methodology to be applied to this kind of study| we follow simplified steps such as: (1) estimation of the climatological variance of frequency-based rainfall amounts| (2) estimation of confidence intervals of frequency-based rainfall amounts (lower and upper bounds for the 5 and 1% significance levels estimated using the climatological variance)| and (3) evaluation of the effect of extra rainfall events on the frequency-based rainfall amounts. Twelve stations on the Korean peninsula are selected as they have relatively longer data length. The annual maximum rainfall data collected from 1954 to 1998 are used. From this study we concluded that (1) at least 30 years of data length should be used for the frequency analysis in order to assure the stability of the variance of frequency-based rainfall amounts| (2) the climatological variances estimated all range from 5 to 8% of the frequency-based rainfall amounts| and (3) even though the frequency-based rainfall amount seems to become extreme with seemingly abnormal events| it still remains under its upper bound for the 5 or 1% significance levels estimated using the climatological variance| as well as it decays exponentially to the normal level as extra events are added. Thus| we conclude that we do not need to panic over seemingly abnormal events occurring so far| but just need to consider the variability inherent in frequency-based rainfall amounts. 6190,2003,4,4,Optimal surface temperature reconstructions using terrestrial borehole data,[1] We derive an optimal Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature reconstruction from terrestrial borehole temperature profiles spanning the past five centuries. The pattern of borehole ground surface temperature (GST) reconstructions displays prominent discrepancies with instrumental surface air temperature (SAT) estimates during the 20th century| suggesting the presence of a considerable amount of noise and/or bias in any underlying spatial SAT signal. The vast majority of variance in the borehole dataset is efficiently retained by its two leading eigenvectors. A sizable share of the variance in the first eigenvector appears to be associated with non-SAT related bias in the borehole data. A weak but detectable SAT signal appears to be described by a combination of the first two eigenvectors. Exploiting this eigendecomposition| application of optimal signal estimation methods yields a hemispheric borehole SAT reconstruction that is largely consistent with instrumental data available in past centuries| and is indistinguishable in it smajor features from several published long-term temperature estimates based on both climate proxy data and model simulations. 2766,2003,3,2,Overview of regulatory/policy/economic issues related to carbon dioxide,This is an overview of Session 2c dealing with the regulatory| policy and economic issues related to carbon dioxide and its impact on global climate change. The information is taken from the two papers presented in this session (the U.S. Perspective by Dennis Leaf and the European Perspective by Hans J.H. Verolme) and from the panel discussion that took place at the end of the session. The overview focuses primarily on the policy responses of both the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) to changes in global atmospheric pollution. To a lesser extent| the progress of policy responses to these changes is discussed. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has been signed and ratified by over 180 countries. The UNFCCC contained no binding targets or timetables for emissions reductions. The Kyoto Protocol [United Nations. Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. UNEP.IUC/99/10. Chadelaine| Switzerland: United Nations Environment Programme's Information Unit for Conventions| for the Climate Change Secretariat| 1997] to the UNFCCC did contain targets and timetables for reductions of greenhouse gases on the part of developed countries. The US has signed but not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. The US has experienced some movement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the part of various levels of government| as well as the private sector. The UK's commitment to reducing green house gases is laid down in the UK Climate Change Programme 2000. The UK is a member of the European Union (EU). In this context| an example of EU-wide progress| the voluntary agreement with car manufacturers to reduce CO2 emissions in new vehicles| will be discussed. In addition| there will be some discussion on the UK CO2 trading scheme that created the first market in the world in April 2001. Overall| the policy process is constantly informed by scientific research. In the case of climate change| much of this work is carried out under the auspices of international scientific panels. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 6282,2003,2,4,Oxygen minimum zone benthos: Adaptation and community response to hypoxia,Mid-water oxygen minima (<0.5ml 1(-1) dissolved O-2) intercept the continental margins along much of the eastern Pacific Ocean| off west Africa and in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal| creating extensive stretches of sea floor exposed to permanent| severe oxygen depletion. These seafloor oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) typically occur at bathyal depths between 200m and 1000m| and are major sites of carbon burial along the continental margins. Despite extreme oxygen depletion| protozoan and metazoan assemblages thrive in these environments. Metazoan adaptations include small| thin bodies| enhanced respiratory surface area| blood pigments such as haemoglobin| biogenic structure formation for stability in soupy sediments| an increased number of pyruvate oxidoreductases| and the presence of sulphide-oxidising symbionts. The organic-rich sediments of these regions often support mats of large sulphide-oxidising bacteria (Thioploca| Beggiatoa| Thiomargarita)| and high-density| low-diversity metazoan assemblages. Densities of protistan and metazoan meiofauna are typically elevated in OMZs| probably due to high tolerance of hypoxia| an abundant food supply| and release from predation. Macrofauna and megafauna often exhibit dense aggregations at OMZ edges| but depressed densities and low diversity in the OMZ core| where oxygen concentration is lowest. Taxa most tolerant of severe oxygen depletion (<0.2mll(-1)) in seafloor OMZs include calcareous foraminiferans| nematodes| and annelids. Agglutinated protozoans| harpacticoid copepods| and calcified invertebrates are typically less tolerant. High dominance and relatively low species richness are exhibited by foraminiferans| metazoan meiofauna| and macrofauna within OMZs. At dissolved oxygen concentrations below 0.15 ml l(-1)| bioturbation is reduced| the mixed layer is shallow| and chemosynthesis-based nutrition (via heterotrophy and symbiosis) becomes important. OMZs represent a major oceanographic boundary for many species. As they expand and contract over geological time| OMZs may influence genetic diversity and play a key role in the evolution of species at bathyal depths. These ecosystems may preview the types of adaptations| species| and processes that will prevail with increasing hypoxia over ecological and evolutionary time. However| many questions remain unanswered concerning controls on faunal standing stocks in OMZs| and the physiological| enzymatic| metabolic| reproductive and molecular adaptations that permit benthic animals to live in OMZs. As global warming and eutrophication reduce oxygenation of the world ocean| there is a pressing need to understand the functional consequences of oxygen depletion in marine ecosystems. 6045,2003,5,3,Palaeoclimatic insights into future climate challenges,Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections| such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policyrnakers. Because larger| faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems| the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming| with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO2. Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times| linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however| such models often underestimate the magnitude| speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses. 6103,2003,5,4,Paleoceanographic changes of the Late Pliensbachian-Early Toarcian interval: a possible link to the genesis of an Oceanic Anoxic Event,Secular records of the elemental and isotopic composition of belemnite calcite were studied in Pliensbachian and Toarcian sections from the Yorkshire coast| UK| and Southern Germany| to investigate oceanographic change during an interval prior to and including the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE). Records from Southern Germany are correlated to the UK stratigraphy using strontium isotope stratigraphy. The geochemical trends measured from belemnite calcite are consistent between the two sections| and are interpreted in terms of temperature and salinity of the northwest European epi-continental sea. The data suggest that a dramatic environmental change coincided with the Toarcian OAE. Belemnite Mg/Ca| Sr/Ca| and Na/Ca ratios increase by it factor of between 1.7 and 2 coincident with a 3 parts per thousand negative shift in delta(18)O from the mid-tenuicostatum zone until the lower falciferum zone of the UK ammonite biostratigraphy (a period of similar to0.6-0.7 Myr). Taken at face value| the Mg/Ca and delta(18)O data argue for an abrupt warming of 6-7degreesC and substantial freshening during this interval. Global warming accompanied by an accelerated hydrological cycle and increased runoff is proposed to explain these changes. Prior to these events| data from lower in the Yorkshire section suggest a possible cooling accompanied by a shift to more saline waters during the period from the upper Pliensbachian margaritatus zone to the Toarcian lower tenuicostatum zone. This earlier event may also have been important in causing density stratification in the northwest European epi-continental sea. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6139,2003,5,4,Paleoceanographic records in the sedimentary cores from the middle Okinawa Trough,Two gravity piston cores (Cores 155 and 18) involved in this study were collected from the middle Okinawa Trough. Stratigraphy of the two cores was divided and classified based on the features of planktonic foraminifera oxygen isotope changes together with depositional sequence| millennium-scale climatic event comparison| carbonate cycles and AMS(14)C dating. Some paleoclimatic information contained in sediments of these cores was extracted to discuss the paleoclimatic change rules and the short-time scale events presented in interglacial period. Analysis on the variation of oxygen isotope values in stage two shows that the middle part of the Okinawa Trough may have been affected by fresh water from the Yellow River and the Yangtze River during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The oxygen isotope value oscillating ranges of the cores have verified that the marginal sea has an amplifying effect on climate changes. The delta(13)C of benthic foraminifera Uvigerina was lighter in the glacial period than that in the interglacial period| which indicates that the Paleo-Kuroshio's main stream moved eastward and its influence area decreased. According to the temperature difference during the "YD" period existing in Core 180 and other data| we can reach the conclusion that the climatic changes in the middle Okinawa Trough area were controlled by global climatic changes| but some regional factors had also considerable influence on the climate changes. Some results in this paper support Fairbanks's point that the "YD" event was a brief stagnation of sea level rising during the global warming up procession. Moreover| the falling of sea level in the glacial period weakened the exchange between the bottom water of the Okinawa Trough and the deep water of the northwestern Pacific Ocean and resulted in low oxygen state of bottom water in this area. These procedures are the reasons for carbonate cycle in the Okinawa Trough area being consistent with the "Atlantic type" carbonate cycle. 2752,2003,2,4,Parallels and contrasts in the effects of drought on stream macroinvertebrate assemblages,1. It is axiomatic that unusually long dry periods (droughts) adversely affect aquatic biota. Recovery after drought is rapid by macroinvertebrates that possess strategies to survive drying or are highly mobile but other taxa take longer to recolonise depending on the timing| intensity| and duration of the dry phase. 2. Although drought acts as a sustained 'ramp' disturbance| impacts may be disproportionately severe when certain critical thresholds are exceeded. For example| ecological changes may be gradual while a riffle dries but cessation of flow causes abrupt loss of a specific habitat| alteration of physicochemical conditions in pools downstream| and fragmentation of the river ecosystem. Many ecological responses to drought within these habitats apparently depend on the timing and rapidity of hydrological transitions across these thresholds| exhibiting a 'stepped' response alternating between gradual change while a threshold is approached followed by a swift transition when a habitat disappears or is fragmented. 3. In two Australian intermittent streams| drought conditions eliminated or decimated several groups of macroinvertebrates| including atyid shrimps| stoneflies and free-living caddisflies. These taxa persisted during the early stages of the drought but did not recruit successfully the following year| despite a return to higher-than-baseflow conditions. This 'lag effect' in response to drought emphasises the value of long-term survey data. Although changes in faunal composition were inconsistent among sites| marked shifts in taxa richness| abundance and trophic organisation after the riffle habitat dried provide evidence for a stepped response. 4. Responses by macroinvertebrate assemblages to droughts of differing severity in English chalk streams were variable. The prolonged 1988-92 drought had a greater impact than shorter droughts in the early 1970s but recovery over the next 3 years was swift. Effects of the 1995 summer drought were buffered by sustained groundwater discharge from the previous winter. These droughts tended to reduce available riverine habitats| especially via siltation| but few taxa were eliminated because they could recolonise from perennial sections of the chalk streams. 5. In the contrasting environments of the intermittent streams studied in England and Australia| there are parallels in the rapid rates of recolonisation. However| recruitment by taxa that lack desiccation-resistant stages or have limited mobility is delayed. Currently| long-term data on these systems may be insufficient to indicate persistent effects of droughts or predict the impacts of excessive surface or groundwater abstraction or the increased frequency and duration of droughts expected with global climate change. 6027,2003,4,4,Pattern scaling - An examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates,A fully probabilistic| or risk| assessment of future regional climate change and its impacts involves more scenarios of radiative forcing than can be simulated by a general (GCM) or regional (RCM) circulation model. Additional scenarios may be created by scaling a spatial response pattern from a GCM by a global warming projection from a simple climate model. I examine this technique| known as pattern scaling| using a particular GCM (HadCM2). The critical assumption is that there is a linear relationship between the scaler ( annual global-mean temperature) and the response pattern. Previous studies have found this assumption to be broadly valid for annual temperature; I extend this conclusion to precipitation and seasonal (JJA) climate. However| slight non-linearities arise from the dependence of the climatic response on the rate| not just the amount| of change in the scaler. These non-linearities introduce some significant errors into the estimates made by pattern scaling| but nonetheless the estimates accurately represent the modelled changes. A response pattern may be made more robust by lengthening the period from which it is obtained| by anomalising it relative to the control simulation| and by using least squares regression to obtain it. The errors arising from pattern scaling may be minimised by interpolating from a stronger to a weaker forcing scenario. 6254,2003,4,4,Persistence of the Gleissberg 88-year solar cycle over the last similar to 12|000 years: Evidence from cosmogenic isotopes,[1] Among other longer-than-22-year periods in Fourier spectra of various solar-terrestrial records| the 88-year cycle is unique| because it can be directly linked to the cyclic activity of sunspot formation. Variations of amplitude as well as of period of the Schwabe 11-year cycle of sunspot activity have actually been known for a long time and a ca. 80-year cycle was detected in those variations. Manifestations of such secular periodic processes were reported in a broad variety of solar| solar-terrestrial| and terrestrial climatic phenomena. Confirmation of the existence of the Gleissberg cycle in long solar terrestrial records as well as the question of its stability is of great significance for solar dynamo theories. For that perspective| we examined the longest detailed cosmogenic isotope record-INTCAL98 calibration record of atmospheric C-14 abundance. The most detailed precisely dated part of the record extends back to 11| 854 years B. P. During this whole period| the Gleissberg cycle in C-14 concentration has a period of 87.8 years and an average amplitude of similar to1parts per thousand (in Delta(14)C units). Spectral analysis indicates in frequency domain by sidebands of the combination tones at periods of approximate to91.5 +/- 0.1 and approximate to84.6 +/- 0.1 years that the amplitude of the Gleissberg cycle appears to be modulated by other long-term quasiperiodic process of timescale similar to2000 years. This is confirmed directly in time domain by bandpass filtering and time-frequency analysis of the record. Also| there is additional evidence in the frequency domain for the modulation of the Gleissberg cycle by other millennial scale processes. Attempts have been made to explain 20th century global warming exclusively by the component of irradiance variation associated with the Gleissberg cycle. These attempts fail| because they require unacceptably great solar forcing and are incompatible with the paleoclimatic records. 5986,2003,2,4,Phenological records of English garden plants in Leeds (Yorkshire) and Richmond (Surrey) from 1946 to 2002. An analysis relating to global warming,Graphical analysis of first-flowering dates of selected garden plants 1946-2002 shows an earlier trend| which appears to be linked to temperature and global warming. Some species| however| seem to buck this trend| which may be linked to photoperiodic response. Combined graphs of species selected at intervals throughout the calendar year reveal a rhythm or wave of several years in Leeds 1946-1962 and a less marked rhythm in Richmond 1961-2002. 5971,2003,2,4,Phenological responses in maple to experimental atmospheric warming and CO2 enrichment,Evidence that global warming has altered the phenology of the biosphere| possibly contributing to increased plant production in the northern hemisphere| has come from a diversity of observations at scales ranging from the view of the back yard to satellite images of the earth. These observations| coupled with an understanding of the effects of temperature on plant phenology| suggest that future changes in the atmosphere and climate could alter plant phenology with unknown or unpredictable consequences. We assessed the effects of simulated climatic warming and atmospheric CO2 enrichment on the spring and autumn phenology of maple trees (Acer rubrum and A. saccharum) growing for four years in open-top field chambers. CO2 enrichment (+300 ppm) had no consistent effects on the timing of budbreak and leaf unfolding in the spring or leaf abscission in the autumn. Warming (+4degreesC) usually had predictable effects: in two of the three years of assessment| budbreak occurred earlier in warm chambers than in ambient temperature chambers| and leaf abscission always occurred later. The lengthening of the growing season could contribute to increased productivity| although effects of temperature on other physiological processes can concurrently have negative effects on productivity. In 1995| budbreak was unexpectedly delayed in the warmer chambers| apparently the result of advanced budbreak leading to injury from a late-spring frost. Likewise| there was increased risk associated with longer leaf retention in the autumn: in 1994| leaves in the warm chambers were killed by freezing temperatures before they had senesced. These observations support the premise that global warming could increase the length of the growing season. Phenological responses should| therefore| be part of any assessment of the possible consequences of global change| but our results also suggest that those responses may not always have positive effects on production. 2836,2003,2,4,Photosynthetic responses of the coral Montipora digitata to cold temperature stress,Coral bleaching events have become more frequent and widespread| largely due to elevated sea surface temperatures. Global climate change could lead to increased variability of sea surface temperatures| through influences on climate systems| e.g. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Field observations in 1999| following a strong ENSO| revealed that corals bleached in winter after unusually cold weather. To explore the basis for these observations| the photosynthetic responses of the coral species Montipora digitata Studer were investigated in a series of temperature and light experiments. Small replicate coral colonies were exposed to ecologically relevant lower temperatures for varying durations and under light regimes that ranged from darkness to full sunlight. Photosynthetic efficiency was analyzed using a pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometer (F-0| F-m| F-v/F-m)| and chlorophyll a (chl a) content and symbiotic dinoflagellate density were analyzed with spectrophotometry and microscopy| respectively. Cold temperature stress had a negative impact on M digitata colonies indicated by decreased photosynthetic efficiency (F-v/F-m)| loss of symbiotic dinoflagellates and changes in photosynthetic pigment concentrations. Corals in higher light regimes were more susceptible to cold temperature stress| Moderate cold stress resulted in photoacclimatory responses| but severe cold stress resulted in photodamage| bleaching and increased mortality. Responses to cold temperature stress of M digitata appeared similar to that observed in corals exposed to warmer than normal temperatures| suggesting a common mechanism. The results of this study suggest that corals and coral reefs may also be impacted by exposure to cold as well as warm temperature extremes as climate change occurs. 6202,2003,2,4,Phragmites australis invasion and expansion in tidal wetlands: Interactions among salinity| sulfide| and hydrology,Through their physiological effects on ion| oxygen| and carbon balance| respectively| salinity| sulfide| and prolonged flooding combine to constrain the invasion and spread of Phragmites in tidal wetlands. Initial sites of vigorous invasion by seed germination and growth from rhizome fragments appear limited to sections of marsh where salinity is < 10parts per thousand| sulfide concentrations are less than 0.1 mM| and flooding frequency is less than 10%. In polyhaline tidal wetlands the invasion sites include the upland fringe and some high marsh creek banks. The zones of potential invasion tend to be larger in marshes occupying lower-salinity portions of estuaries and in marshes that have been altered hydrologically. Owing to clonal integration and a positive feedback loop of growth-induced modification of edaphic soil conditions| however| a greater total area of wetland is susceptible to Phragmites expansion away from sites of establishment. Mature clones have been reported growing in different marshes with salinity up to 45parts per thousand| sulfide concentration up to 1.75 mM| and flooding frequency up to 100%. For Phragmites establishment and expansion in tidal marshes| windows of opportunity open with microtopographic enhancement of subsurface drainage patterns| marsh-wide depression of flooding and salinity regimes| and variation in sea level driven by global warming and lunar nodal cycles. To avoid Phragmites monocultures| tidal wetland creation| restoration| and management must be considered within the context of these different scales of plant-environment interaction. 2773,2003,4,4,Physical controls on methane ebullition from reservoirs and lakes,Understanding the nature and extent of methane production and flux in aquatic sediments has important geochemical| geotechnical| and global climate change implications. Quantifying these processes is difficult| because much of the methane flux in shallow sediments occurs via ebullition (bubbling). Direct observation of bubble formation is not possible| and bubbling is episodic and dependent upon a number of factors. Whereas previous studies have correlated methane flux with surface wind intensity| detailed study of Lake Gatun in Panama and Lago Loiza in Puerto Rico suggest that methane flux is more closely correlated with the shear stress in sediments caused by bottom currents. Bottom currents in turn are a complex function of wind| internal pressure gradients| and lake bathymetry. A simple physical model of bottom currents and sediments in these lakes suggests that most methane ebullition originated from the upper 10-20 cm of the sediment column. Our data reaffirm previous studies showing that ebullitive methane flux is minor in water deeper than similar to5 m. 6059,2003,2,4,Physical forcing and the dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific: simulations with ENSO-scale and global-warming climate drivers,We used a model of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to explore how climate variation at El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scales might affect animals at middle and upper trophic levels. We developed two physical-forcing scenarios: (1) physical effects on phytoplankton biomass and (2) simultaneous physical effects on phytoplankton biomass and predator recruitment. We simulated the effects of climate-anomaly pulses| climate cycles| and global warming. Pulses caused oscillations to propagate through the ecosystem; cycles affected the shapes of these oscillations; and warming caused trends. We concluded that biomass trajectories of single populations at middle and upper trophic levels cannot be used to detect bottom-up effects| that direct physical effects on predator recruitment can be the dominant source of interannual variability in pelagic ecosystems| that such direct effects may dampen top-down control by fisheries| and that predictions about the effects of climate change may be misleading if fishing mortality is not considered. Predictions from ecosystem models are sensitive to the relative strengths of indirect and direct physical effects on middle and upper trophic levels. 6117,2003,5,4,Planktonic foraminiferal response to the latest Maastrichtian abrupt warm event: a case study from South Atlantic DSDP Site 525A,An abrupt global warming of 3-4degreesC occurred near the end of the Maastrichtian at 65.45-65.10 Ma. The environmental effects of this warm event are here documented based on stable isotopes and quantitative analysis of planktonic foraminifera| at the South Atlantic DSDP Site 525A. Stable isotopes of individual species mark a rapid increase in temperature and a reduction in the vertical water mass stratification that is accompanied by a decrease in niche habitats| reduced species diversity and/or abundance| smaller species morphologies or dwarfing| and reduced photosymbiotic activity. During the warm event| the relative abundance of a large number of species decreased| including tropical-subtropical affiliated species| whereas typical mid-latitude species retained high abundances. This indicates that climate warming did not create favorable conditions for all tropical-subtropical species at mid-latitudes and did not cause a massive retreat in the local mid-latitude population. A noticeable exception is the ecological generalist Heterohelix dentata Stenestad that dominated during the cool intervals| but significantly decreased during the warm event. However| dwarfing is the most striking response to the abrupt warming and occurred in various species of different morphologies and lineages (e.g. biserial| trochospiral| keeled globotruncanids). Dwarfing is a typical reaction to environmental stress conditions and was likely the result of increased reproduction rates. Similarly| photosymbiotic activity appears to have been reduced significantly during the maximum warming| as indicated by decreased delta(13)C values. The foraminiferal response to climate change is thus multifaceted resulting in decreased species diversity| decreased species populations| increased competition due to reduced niche habitats| dwarfing and reduced photosymbiotic activity. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2799,2003,2,4,Plant diversity and insect herbivores: effects of environmental change in contrasting model systems,There is increasing concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic factors (e.g. increasing nutrient inputs| global climate change) on the rate of loss of diversity in ecosystems. Such losses may affect ecosystem processes. In addition| a change in diversity of one group of organisms may influence the diversity of species of the next trophic level. We examined the extent to which plant species richness influences that of insect herbivores in two systems: a long-term field experiment on heather moorland and a model community in the Ecotron controlled environment facility. We examined the response of these two plant communities to environmental change| specifically increased levels of nutrients| grazing and atmospheric CO2. We measured the indirect effects of changes in these factors on insect herbivores| both above- and below-ground. In the moorland system| grazing was the largest influence on plant community structure. The community was dominated by one species| Calluna vnlgaris| and loss of cover under heavy grazing allowed competing species to invade. However| grazing regime was not a major influence on the species richness of the insect herbivore community. Site was more important: there were a greater number of Hemiptera species on sites with more mineral soils than on peat sites| possibly because a greater variety of grass and herb species was present on the former sites. In the Ecotron| below-ground factors were also important drivers of community change: elevated CO| increased carbon availability in the soil and there were simultaneous changes in the community composition of soil biota. Above-ground.| some plant species increased in abundance and others decreased| leading to interaction-specific effects on the insect herbivores. In two very different studies of the effects of environmental change on the interactions between plants and their herbivores| several similar conclusions can be drawn: (1) effects are likely to be site- and interaction-specific; (2) outcomes are likely to be strongly dependent on the initial state and the dominant species of the plant community; and (3) indirect effects| often mediated by below-ground factors| may have a bigger influence on insect-plant interactions than more direct effects of above-ground factors. 2834,2003,2,4,Plant pathogens in a changing world,An entomologist| Paul Reiter from Centers for Disease Control & Prevention| Puerto Rico| informed the ProMed list that ‘8 of 9 web pages dealing with this subject put the danger of malaria migrating to the United States and Europe as the number 1 danger caused by global warming'. Likewise| dengue and yellow fever are predicted to move to temperate climes. To put the subject in perspective| he had written an article entitled ‘From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age' (see http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol6no1/reiter.htm and published by the CDC| Vol. 6| Jan–Feb 2000). He wanted comments. [This fascinating article provides evidence to show that malaria was endemic in many temperate regions until the second half of the 20th century| causing major epidemics even as far north as the Arctic Circle| and it started to decline only in the 19th century when the present warming trend was already under way.] When Paul Roughan (University of Canterbury| New Zealand) asked the malaria list about the possible impact of global climate change (in particular| the spread of tropical zones) on the range of malaria| Ruth Sponsler| another entomologist| recommended Reiter's paper| emphasizing the impact that changes in living conditions have had on its transmission. Pia MacDonald (University of Michigan| USA) sent 31 references| covering papers from 1942 to 1998. Sander Koenraadt (Wageningen University| The Netherlands) described a project under way (see http://www.icis.unimaas.nl/camera) concerned with the effect of climate change on the vectors of malaria and designed to develop a model to predict changes in the incidence of the disease in the highlands| and in areas north and south of the current distribution area which might be affected.
6078,2003,2,4,Plants reverse warming effect on ecosystem water balance,Models predict that global warming may increase aridity in water-limited ecosystems by accelerating evapotranspiration. We show that interactions between warming and the dominant biota in a grassland ecosystem produced the reverse effect. In a 2-year field experiment| simulated warming increased spring soil moisture by 5-10% under both ambient and elevated CO2. Warming also accelerated the decline of canopy greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) each spring by 11-17% by inducing earlier plant senescence. Lower transpirational water losses resulting from this earlier senescence provide a mechanism for the unexpected rise in soil moisture. Our findings illustrate the potential for organism-environment interactions to modify the direction as well as the magnitude of global change effects on ecosystem functioning. 6099,2003,2,4,Population genetic structure of rock ptarmigan Lagopus mutus in Northern and Western Europe,Alpine species may be losing habitat because of global warming. Setting management priorities for such species is thus urgent and cannot be achieved without data on population structure. We studied the structure of rock ptarmigan (Lagopus mutus ) populations in the Pyrenees| Alps and Norway| using six microsatellites. We found that rock ptarmigan in the Pyrenees were genetically impoverished compared with those in the Alps and Norway| and displayed a greater divergence (Pyrenees vs. Alps or Norway: theta(ST) = 0.16| Alps vs. Norway| theta(ST) = 0.04). In the Alps| despite a weak genetic differentiation between localities up to 200 km apart (theta(ST) = 0.011)| a significant isolation-by-distance (IBD) effect was detected. When computed for each sex separately this IBD effect was significant for males but not for females| suggesting that males are highly philopatric. 2804,2003,3,3,Population| development| and waste management in Botswana: Conceptual and policy implications for climate change,Based on government and other relevant documentation| this paper explores the conceptual linkage between population| development| and waste management in Botswana and the implications of this relationship for global climate change. Population is increasing| albeit at a decreasing rate. Spatially| the population is becoming more and more concentrated as the rates and level of urbanization increase. Economic growth has remained consistently high. The combined effect of population dynamics and economic development are having a noticeable imprint on the environment in the form of increased waste generation. Poor waste management poses a real threat to environmental sustainability in general and climate change in particular because of inadequate technology| weak institutional mechanisms to enforce regulations| and low levels of sensitization among the public to deal with the problem. Mitigation measures are suggested to minimize the negative effects of waste management on climate change. 6127,2003,2,3,Possible change of extratropical cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols - Study with a high-resolution AGCM,To investigate the possible impacts of enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols on extratropical cyclone activity| two 20-yr time-slice experiments-the control run and the global warming run-are performed with a high-resolution AGCM (T106) of the Japan Meteorological Agency. In the control run| the atmosphere is forced by the observed SST and sea ice of 1979-98 and present-day CO2 and sulfate aerosol concentrations. In the global warming run| the atmosphere is forced by the observed SST and sea ice of 1979-98 plus the monthly mean anomalies of SST and sea ice at about the year 2050 obtained from a transient climate change experiment with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled ocean-atmosphere model with a low resolution of R15. The equivalent amounts Of CO2 and sulfate aerosol concentrations at about the year 2050 as used in the GFDL R15 model are prescribed. First| the performance of the high-resolution AGCM (T106) in reproducing the extratropical cyclone activity of both hemispheres in the control run is examined-by comparing the cyclone activities simulated in the AGCM and those analyzed from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data of the same period from 1979 to 1998. An objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is used to analyze the cyclone activity. The results show that the model can reproduce the cyclone activity reasonably well. Second| the possible change in cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols is examined. The main results are summarized as follows. 1) The total cyclone density (number of cyclones in a 4.5degrees X 4.5degrees area per season) tends to decrease significantly in the midlatitudes of both of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres during the December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) seasons. The decrease of cyclone density in the midlatitudes of both of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in the DJF season is about 7%. In the JJA season| the decreases of cyclone density in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres' midlatitudes are about 3% and 10%| respectively. 2) Although weak and medium-strength cyclones decrease| the density of strong cyclones increases by more than 20% in the Northern Hemisphere in JJA and in the Southern Hemisphere in both DJF and JJA. 3) The density of strong cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA) increases over the eastern coasts of Asia and North America. In the Southern Hemisphere| the density of strong cyclones increases over the circumpolar regions around Antarctica in. both summer (DJF) and winter (JJA) seasons. The density of strong cyclones also increases over the southeastern coasts of South Africa and South America. Finally| the possible reasons for the change in cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols are examined. It is shown that the changes in the extratropical cyclone activity are closely linked to the changes in the baroclinicity in the lower troposphere| which are mainly related to the changes in the horizontal and vertical temperature distributions in the atmosphere due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. It is shown that| in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes| the decrease of baroclinicity is mainly caused by the decrease of meridional temperature gradient| while in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes| the decrease of baroclinicity is mainly caused by the increase of static stability caused by the enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. 6054,2003,2,4,Possible refugia for reefs in times of environmental stress,This paper investigates the refuge potential of (1) upwelling areas| (2) coral areas at medium depth| and (3) offshore bank and island reefs in a scenario of increased global warming| and thus increased sea surface temperature (SST) and increased solar UV radiation. (1) Observations on coral health and water temperature in the subtropical Atlantic (Eleuthera and Cat Island| Bahamas) and Indian Ocean (Sodwana Bay| South Africa) suggest a link between cool water delivered by upwelling and coral health. After the 1998 bleaching event| caused by strong SST anomalies| coral health and recovery from the previous year's bleaching was significantly better on the narrow southern Cat Island shelf (70% of corals healthy) where the presence of cold water was observed| which was attributed to small-scale upwelling| than on the wide northern Eleuthera shelf (44% of corals healthy)| where downwelling of hot bank waters was believed to have damaged corals. In South Africa| regular| short-term upwelling events in five summers reduced SST to well below bleaching level. (2) In the northern Red Sea (Safaga Bay) and in South Africa (Sodwana Bay)| wide areas with either coral frameworks or non-framework communities exist. Calculations show that if the top 10 m (20 m) of the ocean became inhospitable to corals| still 50.4% (17.5%) of the coral area would remain intact in the Red Sea and 99% (40%) in South Africa. (3) Offshore bank and island reefs investigated in the Turks| Caicos| and Mouchoir Banks and Grand and Little Cayman showed high rates of mortality and coral diseases. The most remote sites (Mouchoir Bank) were not the healthiest. Refuge areas appear to exist in (1) and (2)| but in (3) only if vigorous water-circulation is encountered. 2762,2003,3,2,Possible responses to global climate change - Integrating mitigation and adaptation,One analysis considers how to allocate effort within a portfolio of mitigation and adaptation alternatives in addressing the possible catastrophic impacts of climate change. 7 The most recent IPCC Working Group II report suggests a possible impact threshold somewhere in the range of a global average temperature change between 2 and 3°C| 8 above which impacts are likely to be more serious and widespread globally. It also is possible that| if the rate of increase in GHG emissions is not moderated in the coming decades| the likelihood of abrupt climate changes will increase| such as a change in the ocean chemistry that causes the Atlantic Gulf Stream to warm| which could indeed be catastrophic for Northwestern Europe. The analysis indicates a need for additional attention to several characteristics of the climate-societal system when integrating mitigation and adaptation strategies| such as the assumed level of cooperation across countries in mitigation efforts and the strength of the interaction across the response measures. As an example of interaction effects| if new agricultural cultivation practices are pursued to sequester carbon more fully (a type of mitigation effort)| the rotation length and choice of agricultural crop could differ from the rotation length and crop most accommodating to changing climatic conditions (types of adaptation strategies). Moreover| the analysis indicates that mitigation becomes less effective as the time horizon for catastrophic impact approaches| because the benefits of mitigation take some time to be realized| making collective adaptation increasingly important by default. In other words| mitigation is inherently anticipatory rather than reactive| while the ability of adaptation to handle possible impact damages through near-term (or after-the-fact) reaction is limited in many cases. Preliminary findings suggest that comparisons of adaptation and mitigation strategies are dependent on geographic scale as well as on the assumed magnitude of climate change. As illustrated conceptually by the solid lines in Figure 2 on page 35| mitigation pathways show higher net benefits at a global scale than a local scale because so many benefits from mitigation investments are external to a local area. By contrast| adaptation pathways show higher net benefits at a local scale| at least in industrialized countries| because significant potential impacts at a global scale are difficult to address through adaptation| such as problems of low-lying coastal areas with sea-level rise. One implication of this pattern is that comparisons of possible responses at a global scale will tend to favor mitigation| while comparisons at the scale of a region within an industrialized country will tend to favor adaptation as the approach that makes the most economic sense for the area itself. This suggests challenges in assuring that mitigation gets a substantial share of the total investment by democratic| industrialized countries where localities have a say in climate change responses. Comparisons| however| also depend on the magnitude and rate of climate change assumed in modeling scenarios. If the solid lines represent moderate change| the dotted lines in the figure represent more substantial climate change. In that case| the net benefits of mitigation pathways tend to rise and the net benefits of adaptation pathways tend to drop. The reason is that the ability of adaptation investments to accommodate higher impacts is relatively smaller| increasing the relative value of mitigation in avoiding impact costs. This strongly suggests that mitigation and adaptation are not necessarily competitors in climate change impact response strategies. In many cases| they are instead complements. If mitigation is successful in keeping climate change impacts to a moderate level| then adaptation can handle a larger share of the resulting impacts. 6037,2003,5,4,Post-glacial vegetation reconstruction and a possible 8200 cal. yr BP event from the low arctic of continental Nunavut| Canada,Climate models suggest that the global warming during the early to mid-Holocene may have partly resulted from the northward advance of the northern treeline and subsequent reduction of the planetary albedo. We investigated the Holocene vegetation history of low arctic continental Nunavut| Canada| from a radiocarbon-dated sediment core from TK-2 Lake| a small-lake ca. 200 km north of the limit of the forest-tundra. The pollen and loss-on-ignition data indicate the presence of dwarf shrub tundra in the region since the beginning of organic sedimentation at ca. 9000 cal. yr BP with dominance of Betula| especially since 8700 cal. yr BP. At 8100-7900 cal. yr BP the dominance of the shrub tundra was punctuated by a transient decline of Betula and coincident increases of Ericaceae undiff.| Vaccinium-type| and Gramineae. This suggests an abrupt disturbance of the Betula glandulosa population| approximately simultaneously with the sudden 8200 cal. yr BP event in the North Atlantic. However| in the absence of other sites studied in the area| linkage to the 8200 cal. yr BP event remains tentative. The lack of any evidence of forest-tundra in the region constrains the northern limit of the mid-Holocene advance of the forest-tundra boundary in central northern Canada. Consequently| our results show that the climate models imposing a mid-Holocene advance of the limit of the forest-tundra to the arctic coast of Canada may have overestimated the positive climatic feedback effects that can result from the replacement of tundra by the boreal forest. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons| Ltd. 6069,2003,2,3,Potential changes in skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) habitat from a global warming scenario: modelling approach and preliminary results,Recent studies suggest a reduction of primary production in the tropical oceans because of changes in oceanic circulation under global warming conditions caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. This might affect the productivity of medium and higher trophic levels with potential consequences on marine resources such as tropical tuna. Here we combine the projections of up-to-date climate and ocean biogeochemical models with recent concepts of representation of fish habitat based on prey abundance and ambient temperature to gain some insight into the impact of climate change on skipjack tuna ( Katsuwonus pelamis)| the species that dominates present-day tuna catch. For a world with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration| our results suggest significant large-scale changes of skipjack habitat in the equatorial Pacific. East of the date line| conditions could be improved by an extension of the present favourable habitat zones of the western equatorial Pacific| a feature reminiscent of warming conditions associated with El Nino events. Despite its simplicity and the associated underlying hypothesis| this first simulation is used to stress future research directions and key issues for modelling developments associated to global change. 2810,2003,2,4,Potential effects of warming and drying on peatland plant community composition,Boreal peatlands may be particularly vulnerable to climate change| because temperature regimes that currently constrain biological activity in these regions are predicted to increase substantially within the next century. Changes in peatland plant community composition in response to climate change may alter nutrient availability| energy budgets| trace gas fluxes| and carbon storage. We investigated plant community response to warming and drying in a field mesocosm experiment in northern Minnesota| USA. Large intact soil monoliths removed from a bog and a fen received three infrared warming treatments crossed with three water-table treatments (n = 3) for five years. Foliar cover of each species was estimated annually. In the bog| increases in soil temperature and decreases in water-table elevation increased cover of shrubs by 50% and decreased cover of graminoids by 50%. The response of shrubs to warming was distinctly species-specific| and ranged from increases (for Andromeda glaucophylla ) to decreases (for Kalmia polifolia ). In the fens| changes in plant cover were driven primarily by changes in water-table elevation| and responses were species- and lifeform-specific: increases in water-table elevation increased cover of graminoids - in particular Carex lasiocarpa and Carex livida - as well as mosses. In contrast| decreases in water-table elevation increased cover of shrubs| in particular A. glaucophylla and Chamaedaphne calyculata . The differential and sometimes opposite response of species and lifeforms to the treatments suggest that the structure and function of both bog and fen plant communities will change - in different directions or at different magnitudes - in response to warming and/or changes in water-table elevation that may accompany regional or global climate change. 6235,2003,2,2,Potential impact of climate change on marine dimethyl sulfide emissions,Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a biogenic compound produced in sea-surface water and outgased to the atmosphere. Once in the atmosphere| DMS is a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei in the unpolluted marine atmosphere. It has been postulated that climate may be partly modulated by variations in DMS production through a DMS-cloud condensation nuclei-albedo feedback. We present here a modelled estimation of the reponse of DMS sea-water concentrations and DMS fluxes to climate change| following previous work on marine DMS modeling (Aumont et al.. 2002) and on the global warming impact on marine biology (Bopp et al.. 2001). An atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was coupled to a marine biogeochemical scheme and used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (a 1% increase per year in atmospheric CO2 until it has doubled). The predicted global distribution of DMS at I x CO2 compares reasonably well with observations: however| in the high latitudes| very elevated concentrations of DMS due to spring and summer bloom| of Phaeocystis can not be reproduced. At 2 x CO2. the model estimates a small increase of global DMS flux to the atmosphere (+2%|) but with large spatial heterogeneities (from -15% to +30% for the zonal mean). Mechanisms affecting DMS fluxes are changes in ( I) marine biological productivity. (2) relative abundance of phytoplankton species and (3) wind intensity. The mean DMS flux perturbation we simulate represents a small negative feedback on global warming however| the large regional changes may significantly impact regional temperature and precipitation pattern. 2796,2003,2,4,Potential impact of global climate change on species richness of long-distance migrants,Little evidence exists demonstrating that global climate change leads to systematic changes in the structure of ecological communities. For avian communities| one would expect warmer winters to lead to declines in numbers of long-distance migrants if resident birds benefit from warmer winters and impose increasing competitive pressure on migrants. To study the potential influence of global climate change on long-distance migrants| we correlated the number of all species of land birds and the number and proportion of long-distance migrants| short-distance migrants| and residents in 595 grid cells across Europe. We used mean temperature of the coldest month| mean spring temperature| and spring precipitation as measures of climatic conditions in winter and during the breeding period. The number and proportion of long-distance migrants decreased with increasing winter temperature| decreasing spring temperature| and increasing spring precipitation. We used this spatial relationship between bird community structure and climate in Europe to make predictions about changes in bird communities of the Lake Constance region| Central Europe| between two census periods (1980-1981 and 1990-1992). Winter temperature in this region increased significantly between the two censuses| whereas spring temperature and precipitation did not change. As predicted from the models| the proportion of long-distance migrants decreased and the number and proportion of short-distance migrants and residents increased between the two censuses. The significant declines of the long-distance migrants in the Lake Constance region are of a magnitude that can be explained by the observed climate change. Our results suggest that increasingly warmer winters may pose a more severe threat to long-distance migrants than to the other bird groups. 2829,2003,2,4,Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California,Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 30-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources| Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include increased temperature| rising sea levels| more frequent and severe floods and droughts| and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California| these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally| rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation| reclamation| conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally| planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning. 6116,2003,2,4,Precipitation variability in central Himalayas and its relation to Northern Hemisphere temperature,A 149.8-m-long ice core was drilled at the accumulation area of Dasuopu glacier (28degrees23'N| 85degrees43'E| 7100 m a.s.l.) in the central Himalayas in 1997. The ice core was analyzed continuously for stable isotopes (delta(18)O)| cations (Na+| K+| Mg2+| Ca2+) and anions (Cl-| SO42-| NO3-) throughout the core. Cycles indicated by 45180| cations and anions were identified and counted as seasonal fluctuations as annual increment from maximum to maximum values. Reconstructed 300-year annual net accumulation from the core reveals a major precipitation trend for the central Himalayas with an average precipitation 750 mm per year. The trend| separated from the time series| shows a strong correlation to global temperature. Generally| as northern global temperature increases 0.1degreesC| the accumulation decreases about 80mm and vise versa. This may suggests that monsoon precipitation in Himalayas have decreased continuously in past decade as a response to global warming. 2778,2003,2,4,Predictability of Vibrio cholerae in Chesapeake Bay,Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to natural waters and can pose a health risk when it is consumed via untreated water or contaminated shellfish. The correlation between the occurrence of V. cholerae in Chesapeake Bay and environmental factors was investigated over a 3-year period. Water and plankton samples were collected monthly from five shore sampling sites in northern Chesapeake Bay (January 1998 to February 2000) and from research cruise stations on a north-south transect (summers of 1999 and 2000). Enrichment was used to detect culturable V. cholerae| and 21.1% (n = 427) of the samples were positive. As determined by serology tests| the isolates| did not belong to serogroup 01 or 0139 associated with cholera epidemics. A direct fluorescent-antibody assay was used to detect V. cholerae 01| and 23.8% (n = 412) of the samples were positive. V cholerae was more frequently detected during the warmer months and in northern Chesapeake Bay| where the salinity is lower. Statistical models successfully predicted the presence of V. cholerae as a function of water temperature and salinity. Temperatures above 19degreesC and salinities between 2 and 14 ppt yielded at least a fourfold increase in the number of detectable V. cholerae. The results suggest that salinity variation in Chesapeake Bay or other parameters associated with Susquehanna River inflow contribute to the variability in the occurrence of V. cholerae and that salinity is a useful indicator. Under scenarios of global climate change| increased climate variability| accompanied by higher stream How rates and warmer temperatures| could favor conditions that increase the occurrence of V. cholerae in Chesapeake Bay. 6222,2003,2,3,Prediction of changes in soil moisture associated with climatic changes and their implications for vegetation changes: Waves model simulation on Taihang Mountain| China,The WAVES model was used to simulate the effect of global warming on soil moisture on the semi-arid Taihang Mountain in China. Parameters of the WAVES model were first adjusted according to soil moisture data from a field global warming experiment. Then| the reliability of WAVES in predicting soil moisture changes induced by climatic change was confirmed by comparing the simulated and observed soil moisture values under different climatic conditions and plant growth rates of another field treatment. Next| 10 climate change scenarios incorporating increases in temperature and changes in precipitation were designed. When a simulation was conducted using the leaf area index (LAI) growth pattern from a field experiment under the present climatic conditions| the results suggested that the combination of temperature increase and precipitation decrease would greatly decrease soil water content throughout the entire simulation period. On the other hand| only when precipitation increased by 20% and temperature increased by 2 degreesC| the effect of precipitation increase on soil moisture was obviously positive. Although soil moisture conditions in the T2P1 (temperature increase by 2degreesC and precipitation increase by 10%) and T4P2 (temperature increase by 4degreesC and precipitation increase by 20%) scenarios were slightly better during the rainy season and not much changed before the rainy season| the positive effect of 10% precipitation increase on soil moisture was totally offset by moisture decrease caused by a 4degreesC temperature increase in the T4P1 scenario. At the same time| the trends of soil-moisture change were highly coincident with predicted changes in productivity. Finally| the predicted LAI values from other studies were combined with the climatic change scenarios and used in the simulation. The results showed that changes in LAI alleviated| at least to some extent| the effects of temperature and precipitation changes on soil moisture. 6303,2003,2,4,Preferred temperature of juvenile Atlantic cod Gadus morhua with different haemoglobin genotypes at normoxia and moderate hypoxia,Atlantic cod Gadus morhua has polymorphic haemoglobin| which can be separated into two homozygous types| HbI-1 and HbI-2| and one heterozygous type HbI-1/2. The geographical distribution of Atlantic cod with the different haemoglobin types varies| with the HbI(2) allele occurring at high frequency in northern regions| and the HbI(1) allele dominant in warmer areas. To determine if temperature is a selective parameter in the distribution of the haemoglobin types| the preferred temperature of the homozygous genotypes HbI-1 and HbI-2 was measured. We found that HbI-2 cod preferred a temperature of 8.2+/-1.5degreesC while HbI-1 cod preferred 15.4+/-1.1degreesC| and this preference was significant. The effect of hypoxia (35% oxygen saturation) on the preferred temperature was also measured. Previous studies showed that the preferred temperature of fish decreases during hypoxia| and this was the case for HbI-1 cod| which preferred 9.8+/-1.8degreesC during hypoxia| whereas HbI-2 cod did not show this effect. The results indicate that environmental temperature changes will lead to a distributional change in the different haemoglobin types of Atlantic cod| global warming providing an advantage for HbI-1 cod. However| since HbI-1 cod prefer a low temperature under hypoxic conditions| a combination of increased water temperature and hypoxia could be unfavourable for Atlantic cod stocks. 2785,2003,2,4,Preparing for climate change impacts in Norway's built environment,This paper provides an overview of the Norwegian climate policy and of the practical implications of preparing Norway for climate change| with special emphasis on the challenges confronting the built environment. Although the Norwegian government has been relatively proactive in instituting measures aimed at halting global climate change| less attention has been paid to the challenge of adapting to climate change. The global climate system is likely to undergo changes| regardless of the implementation of abatement policies under the Kyoto Protocol or other regimes. The full range of impacts resulting from these changes is still uncertain; however| it is becoming increasingly clear that adaptation to climate change is necessary and inevitable within several sectors. The potential impacts of climate change in the built environment are now being addressed. Both the functionality of the existing built environment and the design of future buildings are likely to be altered by climate change impacts| and the expected implications of these new conditions are now investigated. However| measures aimed at adjustments within individual sectors| such as altering the criteria and codes of practice for the design and construction of buildings| constitute only a partial adaptation to climate change. In order to adapt effectively| larger societal and intersectoral adjustments are necessary. 6312,2003,2,4,Present-day sea level change: Observations and causes,We investigate climate-related processes causing variations of the global mean sea level on interannual to decadal time scale. We focus on thermal expansion of the oceans and continental water mass balance. We show that during the 1990s where global mean sea level change has been measured by Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry| thermal expansion is the dominant contribution to the observed 2.5 mm/yr sea level rise. For the past decades| exchange of water between continental reservoirs and oceans had a small| but not totally negligible contribution (about 0.2 mm/yr) to sea level rise. For the last four decades| thermal contribution is estimated to about 0.5 mm/yr| with a possible accelerated rate of thermosteric rise during the 1990s. Topex/Poseidon shows an increase in mean sea level of 2.5 mm/yr over the last decade| a value about two times larger than reported by historical tide gauges. This would suggest that there has been significant acceleration of sea level rise in the recent past| possibly related to ocean warming. 6067,2003,4,3,Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks,Anticipated future warming of the climate system increases the need for accurate climate projections. A central problem are the large uncertainties associated with these model projections| and that uncertainty estimates are often based on expert judgment rather than objective quantitative methods. Further| important climate model parameters are still given as poorly constrained ranges that are partly inconsistent with the observed warming during the industrial period. Here we present a neural network based climate model substitute that increases the efficiency of large climate model ensembles by at least an order of magnitude. Using the observed surface warming over the industrial period and estimates of global ocean heat uptake as constraints for the ensemble| this method estimates ranges for climate sensitivity and radiative forcing that are consistent with observations. In particular| negative values for the uncertain indirect aerosol forcing exceeding -1.2 Wm(-2) can be excluded with high confidence. A parameterization to account for the uncertainty in the future carbon cycle is introduced| derived separately from a carbon cycle model. This allows us to quantify the effect of the feedback between oceanic and terrestrial carbon uptake and global warming on global temperature projections. Finally| probability density functions for the surface warming until year 2100 for two illustrative emission scenarios are calculated| taking into account uncertainties in the carbon cycle| radiative forcing| climate sensitivity| model parameters and the observed temperature records. We find that warming exceeds the surface warming range projected by IPCC for almost half of the ensemble members. Projection uncertainties are only consistent with IPCC if a model-derived upper limit of about 5 K is assumed for climate sensitivity. 6120,2003,3,4,Process configurations and their performance estimations of an adsorptive desiccant cooling cycle for use in a damp climate,Typical adsorptive desiccant cooling process mainly consisting of a rotary dehumidifier and a sensible heat exchanger can be driven with low-temperature heat energy like solar energy or waste heat| and it has been expected to be alternative air conditioning equipment considering various energy/environmental problems such as global warming. However| the fact that the cooling performance is decreased significantly as ambient humidity increases was also found. This is mainly due to a simultaneous increase of humidity and temperature in the process outlet air of dehumidifier. For the use of the cooling process in high humid condition| two process configurations were proposed and investigated by means of simple calculation. One of the proposed configurations| the 4-wheel cycle with double stage dehumidification| indicated a sufficient cooling performance for the use in factories or laboratories even though the ambient humidity was nearly 20 g/kg. Furthermore| the process performance was improved more with water spray evaporative cooling at the inlet of a regeneration air stream in the pre-dehumidification section. This means that lower humidity and lower temperature of air supplied to the process inlet of the dehumidifier is strongly required to give the cooling process a sufficient performance for actual use. Meanwhile| it was found that lower temperature heat around 50-60degreesC could drive the 4-wheel desiccant cycle in a moderate ambient humidity. The other| a 3-wheel cycle equipped with a total heat exchanger| gave us a reasonable improvement in the cooling effect and COP with less additional investment than that for the 4-wheel cycle. 6060,2003,3,3,Production of hydrogen by fusion energy: A review and perspective,Hydrogen has captured the imagination of the technical community recently| with visions of improved energy security| reduced global warming| improved energy efficiency and reduced air pollution as potential benefits. A significant "Hydrogen Economy" is predicted that will reduce dependence on petroleum imports| and reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.(1) Such a hydrogen economy will need significant new sources of hydrogen. Virtually all our current hydrogen is produced from natural gas and is equivalent to 48 GW(t). Replacing this growing demand with a non-fossil| non-greenhouse gas emitting source represents a huge potential market for fusion.
2728,2003,2,4,Quantifying the effects of phenology on ecosystem evapotranspiration in planted grassland mesocosms using EcoCELL technology,Use of plant phenological variables in models predicting evapotranspiration (ET) has largely relied on relatively simple (e.g.| linear) relationships which may not be sufficiently accurate to predict small-yet ecologically significant-changes in plant phenology that are expected to occur in response to global climate change. A dearth of experimental data reflects the difficulties in quantifying these relationships against the background of large environmental variability that occurs in the field. Our main objective was to quantify how plant phenology (leaf area index [LAI] and root length density [RLD]) affect ET and its components during an entire vegetation cycle in large-scale model grassland (Bromus tectorum) ecosystems using the Ecologically Controlled Enclosed Lysimeter Laboratory (EcoCELL)-a unique open flow and mass balance laboratory. We also aimed to compare the three methods employed by the EcoCELL laboratory to measure ecosystem ET (whole-ecosystem gas exchange| weighing lysimetry| and weighing lysimetry combined with time domain reflectometry [TDR]) in order to independently confirm the performance of the unique gas exchange technology. Cumulative ET during the 190 days of the experiment measured with the three different methods compared very well with each other (mean errors < 1%). We found that ET reached maximum levels at relatively low LAI (2-3)| but as LAI increased beyond this value| small increase in transpiration were more than offset by decreases in soil evaporation| thereby causing declines in ET. A combined rectangular hyperbola (effects on transpiration) and linear (effects on soil evaporation) function between LAI and ET accounted for almost 90% of all variability in measured daily ET. RLD showed relationships to ET similar to those observed for LAI due to high covariance between RLD and LAI| but root length densities did not explain any additional variability in daily ET beyond that explained by LAI under the well-watered conditions of the experiment. Taken together| our results show that: (i) the EcoCELL mesocosm laboratory can precisely and accurately quantify hydrologic processes of large soil-plant monoliths under controlled environmental conditions; (ii) plant canopy phenological changes affect ecosystem ET| and the contribution of transpiration| in non-linear ways; (iii) these non-linear responses must be accounted for when assessing the consequences of changes in plant phenology-e.g.| due to global environmental change-on ecosystem hydrology. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6228,2003,2,3,Radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from Finland: Methods for estimating forcing of a country or an activity,The objective of this study was to assess the radiative forcing due to Finnish anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in three scenarios. All the Kyoto Protocol gases| i.e.| CO2| CH4| N2O| and fluorinated gases| were included. The calculations showed that forcing due to Finnish emissions will increase in the case of all gases except methane by the year 2100. In 1990| radiative forcing due to Finland's emission history of all Kyoto Protocol gases was 3.2 mW/m(2)| of which 71% was due to carbon dioxide| 17% to methane| and the rest to nitrous oxide. In 1990 the share of fluorinated gases was negligible. The share of methane in radiative forcing is decreasing| whereas the shares of carbon dioxide and of fluorinated gases are increasing and that of nitrous oxide remains nearly constant. The nonlinear features concerning additional concentrations in the atmosphere and radiative forcing due to emissions caused by a single country or activity are also considered. Radiative forcing due to Finnish emissions was assessed with two different approaches| the marginal forcing approach and the averaged forcing approach. The impact of the so-called background scenario| i.e.| the scenario for concentration caused by global emissions| was also estimated. The difference between different forcing models at its highest was 40%| and the averaged forcing approach appeared to be the more recommendable. The effect of background concentrations in the studied cases was up to 11%. Hence| the choice of forcing model and background scenario should be given particular attention. 6152,2003,2,4,Rainfall variability and changes in Southern Africa during the 20th century in the global warming context,Rainfall variability and changes in Southern Africa over the 20th century are examined and their potential links to the global warming discussed. After a short review of the main conclusions of various experiments with Global Atmospheric Models (GCM) forced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases for Southern Africa| a study of various datasets documents the observed changes in rainfall features at both daily and seasonal time steps through the last century. Investigations of daily rainfall parameters are so far limited to South Africa. They show that some regions have experienced a shift toward more extreme rainfall events in recent decades. Investigations of cumulative rainfall anomalies over the summer season do not show any trend to drier or moister conditions during the century. However| close examination reveals that rainfall variability in Southern Africa has experienced significant modifications| especially in the recent decades. Interannual variability has increased since the late 1960s. In particular| droughts became more intense and widespread. More significantly| teleconnection patterns associated with Southern African rainfall variability changed from regional before the 70s to near global after| and an increased statistical association to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is observed. Numerical experiments with a French GCM indicate that these changes in teleconnections could be related to long-term variations in the Sea-Surface-Temperature background| which are part of the observed global warming signal. 2771,2003,2,4,Rapid turnover of hyphae of mycorrhizal fungi determined by AMS microanalysis of C-14,Processes in the soil remain among the least well-characterized components of the carbon cycle. Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are ubiquitous root symbionts in many terrestrial ecosystems and account for a large fraction of photosynthate in a wide range of ecosystems; they therefore play a key role in the terrestrial carbon cycle. A large part of the fungal mycelium is outside the root ( the extraradical mycelium| ERM) and| because of the dispersed growth pattern and the small diameter of the hyphae (<5 micrometers)| exceptionally difficult to study quantitatively. Critically| the longevity of these. ne hyphae has never been measured| although it is assumed to be short. To quantify carbon turnover in these hyphae| we exposed mycorrhizal plants to fossil ("carbon-14 - dead") carbon dioxide and collected samples of ERM hyphae ( up to 116 micrograms) over the following 29 days. Analyses of their carbon-14 content by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) showed that most ERM hyphae of AM fungi live| on average| 5 to 6 days. This high turnover rate reveals a large and rapid mycorrhizal pathway of carbon in the soil carbon cycle. 6015,2003,5,4,Rates of late Quaternary normal faulting in central Tibet from U-series dating of pedogenic carbonate in displaced fluvial gravel deposits,Along the main boundary fault of the central Tibetan Shuang flu graben| two well-preserved fluvial terrace surfaces are vertically offset by similar to1.3 m (terrace 1) and similar to14.8 m (terrace 11). Using thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS)| we have determined 48 Th-230-U-234-U-238 ages of small (10-40 mg) samples from pedogenic carbonate rinds on clasts in the terrace deposits. Based on textural| microstratigraphic and geochemical criteria| we conclude that the U-series ages of innermost-rind samples provide reliable ages of 16.4 +/- 1.9 ka for terrace 1| and 233.1 +/- 9.3 ka for terrace II. This constrains the average rate of vertical displacement along the normal fault to be 0.079 +/- 0.011 mm/yr during the past similar to16 kyr| and 0.064 +/- 0.007 mm/yr during the past similar to233 kyr. Combining these results with slip-rate estimates for other normal faults along the graben margins indicates that the cumulative vertical displacement on all normal faults did not exceed similar to0.3 mm/yr during the late Quaternary. This new rate from central Tibet is distinctly lower than the rate of 1.9 +/- 0.6 mm/yr inferred for normal faults bounding the Yadong-Gulu graben system in southern Tibet| consistent with more pronounced and common graben development in southern Tibet. We therefore suggest that normal faulting in southern Tibet is largely controlled by local processes| and that the age of its initiation is not a valid proxy for uplift of the Tibetan plateau| as has been widely assumed. Our data also place chronologic constraints on the termination of periglacial conditions in central Tibet during the last three interglaciations. Rind formation appears to have been relatively continuous on clasts in terrace I from similar to16 ka. Clast rinds from terrace 11| in contrast| are characterized by three main episodes of rind growth that are widely separated in time. The earliest and least well-preserved episode started at 233.1 +/- 9.3 ka| a second episode occurred at 131.8 +/- 7.8 ka| and a third episode was approximately coeval with rind formation in terrace I after 16.4 +/- 1.9 ka. In each case| the age of onset of carbonate rind accumulation coincides with independently estimated ages of global deglaciation. Accordingly| we conclude that periglacial conditions in the central Tibetan plateau terminated synchronously with early stages of global warming following the last three glacial maxima| and that fluvial aggradation| terrace formation| and pedogenic carbonate accumulation in terrace soils ensued rapidly. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2717,2003,4,4,Recalcitrant problems in environmental instrumentation,Frontiers in any science are generally defined by measurement limitations| and that is especially true in environmental biophysics. Among the more persistent issues are surface-atmosphere exchange| soil water and solute fluxes| plant water status| and plant/soil nutrient status. Measurement of surface-atmosphere exchange is particularly critical to global climate change research. Despite advances in instrumentation. accuracy of flux measurements| particularly eddy covariance. remains unacceptable| partly because the underlying assumptions of stationarity and surface homogeneity are so restrictive. Even when these assumptions are valid| the method appears to systematically underestimate for reasons that are not yet well understood. Similarly| soil water and solute fluxes cannot yet be measured accurately and routinely| hampering water quality research. Recent advances in tension lysimetry offer hope for improvement| but most field experiments still rely on modeling of water and solute now| supported by indirect measurements of ancillary variables| e.g.| soil water content| soil water potential| and solute concentration| at discrete points in time and space. A third area of ongoing concern is that of plant water status. The major uncertainty here concerns which property should be measured. Nearly all of the effort over the past 30 yr has been directed at measuring water potential| but water potential measurements are equilibrium measurements| and plants operate in dynamic environments. Furthermore| many physiological processes appear to be more related to relative water content than to water potential. Finally| more accurate and more timely| (e.g.| in situ) measurements of plant/soil nutrient status are sorely needed to take advantage of the promise of precision agriculture. 6182,2003,2,4,Recent changes in riparian vegetation: Possible consequences on dead wood processing along rivers,Little is known about changes in the composition of dead wood jams along rivers and the possible consequences of any such changes on the river ecosystem. Although tree zonation along the upstream-to-downstream continuum is weak and highly variable from a-system to another| a clear transition appears in the piedmont zone| which is reflected by transitions in dead wood sources as well as for dead wood transport| storage and decomposition processes. In this paper| we focus on large lowland rivers of southwestern France| where riparian vegetation is increasingly fragmented| reduced in area and/or is entirely replaced by planted forests (poplar plantations). The amount and the potential role of dead wood is practically unknown in these rivers. One reason is that French legislation obliges landowners and public service managers to remove all material from the stream in order to maintain unobstructed river flows. The other reason is that unlike pristine streams in northern regions| these rivers have been regulated for several decades (Adour River) or even for several centuries (Garonne River). The vegetation component of the managed riparian landscape has changed in particular as a result of i) a decrease in stream dynamics| ii) the replacement of natural forests by planted ones| and iii) the invasion of natural communities by introduced woody species. The possible consequences of biological invasions on the role of dead wood jams are discussed in light of: i) a local study of wood jams along a moderately modified system; ii) changes observed in the composition of trees along the Adour River over the past 10 years; iii) a regional case study involving two chosen species. Whereas white willow populations are declining along streams in southwestem France| the box-elder| introduced from the United States| has spread extensively in the last two decades. Statistical models would suggest that competitive pressures are limited between these two species| boxelder is expected to replace white willow in the near future as a consequence of an increase in river regulation and global warming. This can be expected to have important consequences on dead wood dynamics| and on the management of woody debris| especially since trends indicate a replacement of softwood species by hardwood species. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons| Ltd. 6233,2003,4,4,Recent cooling in coastal southern Greenland and relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation,[1] Analysis of new data for eight stations in coastal southern Greenland| 1958-2001| shows a significant cooling (trend-line change -1.29degrees C for the 44 years)| as do sea-surface temperatures in the adjacent part of the Labrador Sea| in contrast to global warming (+0.53degrees C over the same period). The land and sea temperature series follow similar patterns and are strongly correlated but with no obvious lead/lag either way. This cooling is significantly inversely correlated with an increased phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the past few decades (r = -0.76)| and will probably have significantly affected the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. 6308,2003,2,4,Recent increases in species richness and shifts in altitudinal distributions of Norwegian mountain plants,Opportunities for observing long-term changes in natural biota are rare. Observations on the distribution and frequency of vascular plants were performed on 23 mountains situated along a west-east gradient in Jotunheimen| central Norway| where detailed site descriptions and species fists exist from AD 1930-31. The sites were resurveyed during the summer of 1998| to examine possible changes in species richness and species distributions along the altitudinal gradient during a 68-year period. Increased species richness was found on 19 of the mountains and was most pronounced at lower altitudes and in the eastern areas. Lowland species| dwarf shrubs and species with wide altitudinal and ecological ranges showed the greatest increases in abundance and altitudinal advances since the 1930-31 study. Species with more restricted habitat demands| such as some hygrophilous snow-bed species| have declined. High-altitude species have disappeared from their lower-elevation sites and increased their abundance at the highest altitudes. Climatic warming occurring in the last 100 years might have allowed the invasion of lowland and lee-slope species. Increased competition at sites where such species have invaded may have led to a decreased abundance of the less competitive species and a concentration of high-altitude species on the highest ridges. Natural succession since the 'Little Ice Age'| increased deposition of nitrogen during recent years and changes in grazing and tourism might have influenced some of the species turnovers| but recent climatic changes are considered to be the most likely major driving factor for the changes observed. 6226,2003,5,3,Recent reversal of Neoglacial climate cooling trend in the Swedish Scandes as evidenced by mountain birch tree-limit rise,An intensive study reconstructs the local late-Holocene tree-limit history (Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa) in the southern Swedish Scandes| as a proxy palaeoclimatic indicator. Elevational tree-limit rise by 75 m| in accordance with instrumentally recorded summer warming| took place over the past century as evidenced by a combination of historical records and modern age-structure analyses. This regionally representative development was put into long-term perspective by radiocarbon-dating of a large sample of megafossil wood remains (trunks and roots)| preserved and recovered at the same location and elevation as the new and higher tree-limit. The magnitude and rate of 20th century tree-limit advance (implicitly climate warming) were without precedent for the past ca. 3500 calendar years. The course of development conforms to an increasingly emergent worldwide pattern| suggesting that warming over the past century is a fundamental reversal of along-tern (Neoglacial) cooling trend. The results are of relevance for current efforts to attribute causes of recent warming in terms of natural versus anthropogenic forcing. The highly anomalous nature of the past century| with respect to climate and ecological change| could argue that at least in part| the warming may be human-induced. However| definite conclusions have to await more global-scale data. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved. 6177,2003,3,3,Recovering energy from waste in Sweden - a systems engineering study,The possibilities for recovering energy from waste in Sweden around the year 2010 are explored in this paper. To capture the issue from the perspectives of both the waste management and the district heating systems| separate systems engineering studies are performed for each. Four questions are explored: (1) Is recovering energy from waste economic from a waste management system perspective?; (2) Is there a significant untapped energy resource in the form of waste in Sweden?; (3) Is recovering energy from waste economic from a district heating system perspective?; and (4) What are the global warming implications of recovering energy from waste? The results show that recovering energy from waste is part of all solutions studied| since energy recovery is necessary in order to fulfil the coming ban on landfilling of combustible and organic waste. However| the optimal quantity of energy to recover from waste differs considerably depending on the system perspective taken. From a waste management point of view| the economically optimal solution is to combine heat recovery with a high level of materials recovery. In this case| the quantity of heat recovered is close to the present Swedish level. From a district heating point of view| the potential could be 2-6 times larger. In terms of global warming implications| the preferable solution is to combine materials recovery and combined heat and power from waste. By bringing both the waste management and the district heating systems into focus| knowledge has been gained. The district heating study reveals a future market for heat recovery from waste that could be significantly larger than today. The waste management study points out that new policy instruments will be introduced in Swedish waste management that could direct waste towards increased energy recovery if the materials recovery sector does not develop strongly. These potential changes would have been more difficult to foresee had one system or the other been restricted to consideration as part of the system environment. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 5997,2003,3,4,Redox range with minimum nitrous oxide and methane production in a rice soil under different pH,A Louisiana rice soil was incubated from the most oxidizing to the most reducing conditions that could be maintained. Four different pH levels were used. Nitrous oxide production initiated shortly after the incubation started under oxidized conditions. As the soil suspension became more reducing| a large amount of CH4 was produced at a critical reducing point and increased exponentially with a further decrease of redox potential (E-H). The results indicated that there was no statistically significant difference between the theoretically predicted decrease of E-H with increase of pH and the observed change of E-H with pH for N2O production (60 mV| P=0.932)| and for significant CH4 production (93 mV| P=0.204)| respectively. Consequently| the E-H range with minimum N2O and CH4 production shifted to lower values of the E-H scale when pH increased. Global warming potential (GWP) contribution from the studied soil mainly comes from N2O production at moderately reducing conditions| and from CH4 production under very reducing conditions. There was a slight production of CH4 at high E(H)s soon after incubation started| but this CH4 production was not a significant source of GWP from soils because of its small quantity and transient occurrence. If pH is neutral| the calculated E-H range with minimum GWP is generally in the range of -150 to +180 mV. This redox window accounts for >40% of the entire E-H range in this study| which makes appropriate management of irrigated rice fields possible that will minimize both N2O and CH4 production. 2842,2003,3,2,Reducing the impacts of transportation on global warming - Summary of New York Greenhouse Gas Task Force recommendations,Global climate change is fundamentally caused by fossil fuel combustion. The transportation sector generates more than one-third of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in New York and represents the fastest-growing source of GHG emissions in the state. A summary of the recommendations of the New York Greenhouse Gas Task Force for reducing GHG emissions from the transportation sector is provided. Using a bottom-up analytical approach| the Center for Clean Air Policy-with advice from the task force-determined that New York can reduce transportation-sector emissions by 1.64 million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) in 2010 (total emissions 20.9% above 1990 levels) and by 5.23 MMTCE in 2020 (total emissions 16.5% above 1990 levels) by implementing the task force's recommendations. Achieving significant reductions in GHG emissions from transportation requires a comprehensive package of complementary measures| including shifting funding to more GHG-efficient alternatives such as transit and smart growth| adopting GHG emissions standards for light-duty vehicles (upon implementation in California)| creating an indigenous biofuels program| and considering policy mechanisms to increase freight efficiency and high-speed rail options. To facilitate the implementation of these measures| the establishment of a state entity for reducing transportation-sector emissions is recommended with a goal of reducing transportation GHG emissions to 20% above 1990 levels by 2010| 10% above 1990 levels by 2020| and 1990 levels by 2030. 6213,2003,3,3,Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by catalytic processes,Catalytic technologies for the abatement of greenhouse gases (GGs) can be an effective possibility for limiting the increasing tropospheric concentration of GGs and reducing their contribution to global warming. Two different cases are discussed: (i) reduction of anthropogenic emissions of non-CO2 GGs (N2O and CH4) and (ii) reduction or conversion Of CO2. In methane conversion waste gases containing diluted methane can be converted at low temperature using Pd supported on titania-ceria catalysts which show also a good resistance to deactivation. Rh supported on modified zirconia-alumina catalysts are effective and stable catalystsin low temperature decomposition of N2O. The concept of reduction Of CO2 back to fuels in a photo-electrocatalytic reactor is also presented. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6119,2003,3,3,Reduction of perfluorocompound emissions by microwave plasma-torch,Perfluorocompounds (PFCs)| which have long lifetimes and serious global warming implications| are widely used during plasma etching and plasma-assisted chamber cleaning processes in metal and dielectric film| by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) systems. Surface cleanings are performed within a reduced pressure chamber by making use of PFC gases. These contaminant gases are emitted with nitrogen gas| which are used for vacuum pump purges. In order to destroy all of the global warming gases including PFCs| we have developed a plasma abatement device| an electrodeless atmospheric microwave plasma-torch| which can easily generate plasma at a given atmospheric pressure. The plasma abatement device is attached to the vacuum pump| which discharges the nitrogen gas with contaminants. The abatement was carried out using oxygen and air as additive gases. Destruction and removal efficiency (DRE) of more than 98% was achieved for tetrafluoromethane (CF4). (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6038,2003,2,4,Regional and local effects of disturbance and climate on altitudinal treelines in northern Patagonia,In this field study we analysed the regional and local scale effects of disturbance and climate on altitudinal treelines dominated by Nothofagus pumilio in northern Patagonia. We compared two regions west and east of the Andes at 40degrees S| slopes with warm vs cool aspects and undisturbed vs locally disturbed treelines. This spatial framework allowed us to test ( 1) for differences among treelines affected by different types of local disturbance and (2) the traditional hypothesis that low temperature limits treeline. Contingency tables and ANOVA showed that local disturbance occurred more frequently than expected on slopes with cool aspects| steep slope angles and concave slope configuration. Disturbed treelines were locally lowered with longer ecotones and lower krummholz growth rates and vegetation cover than undisturbed treelines. Three-way ANOVA showed the significant influences of study area (regional climate) and aspect (local climate) on treeline elevation| krummholz growth rates and density. tree density and vegetation cover| while accounting for local disturbance. Treeline elevations were higher east of the Andes reflecting the more continental climate in Argentina than in Chile| plus regional impacts of volcanic eruptions. Tree density and vegetation cover were greater west of the Andes reflecting greater precipitation in Chile. Within study areas| local climate had different influences on treeline elevations and krummholz growth rates west and east of the Andes. We predict that increased tree growth and upslope advance of treeline in response to global warming is more likely in Chile than in Argentina near 40degrees S| unless precipitation increases east of the Andes. To test these predictions| we recommend research be stratified to account for the influences of local disturbance| which may confound climatic impacts. In northern Patagonia| suitable control (undisturbed) study sites will most likely be found at upper slope positions with low slope angles| simple microtopography and straight topographic configuration. 2832,2003,2,2,Regional climate scenarios for use in Nordic water resources studies,According to global climate projections| a substantial global climate change will occur during the next decades| under the assumption of continuous anthropogenic climate forcing. Global models| although fundamental in simulating the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing are typically geographically too coarse to well represent many regional or local features. In the Nordic region| climate studies are conducted in each of the Nordic countries to prepare regional climate projections with more detail than in global ones. Results so far indicate larger temperature changes in the Nordic region than in the global mean| regional increases and decreases in net precipitation| longer growing season| shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff| snowpack| groundwater| soil frost and moisture| and thus hydropower production potential| flooding risks etc. Regional climate models do not yet fully incorporate hydrology. Water resources studies are carried out off-line using hydrological models. This requires archived meteorological output from climate models. This paper discusses Nordic regional climate scenarios for use in regional water resources studies. Potential end-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry| dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation| river flows and flooding. 6193,2003,2,4,Regional warming-induced species shift in north-west Mediterranean marine caves,The north-western Mediterranean Sea's high biodiversity originates from a mixture of temperate and subtropical species. Large-scale warming has been detected through northward range shifts of 'warm-water' species| and mass-mortality events for 'cold-water' invertebrates. Marine caves are affected in a more subtle way. By monitoring endemic species of cave mysids (Crustacea) and comparing our results with data in the literature| we observed a strong decline in one species| coupled with the success of another. Near Marseille (France)| this phenomenon began while two major thermal anomalies were reported. Different tolerances to temperature were demonstrated by both the species distribution ranges and laboratory experimentation. We provide a possible physiological explanation for populations of cold stenothermal species of endemic cave mysids being replaced by congeners of warmer affinities| with a high risk of extinction. We also found strong support for the view that Mediterranean marine biodiversity is already under the threat of global warming. 6146,2003,2,4,Relationship between laying dates of black kites Milvus migrans and spring temperatures in Italy: rapid response to climate change?,Many Holarctic bird species have been shown to be laying progressively earlier in response to global warming. Most studies have been conducted on small-bodied species at northern latitudes. In Italy| black kite Milvus migrans populations are concentrated near large pre-Alpine lakes| whose water temperatures have been increasing steadily in recent decades. Annual black kite laying dates have become 10-11 days earlier during the last nine years. This shift was related to temporal variations in spring air temperatures| with earlier laying in warmer springs. The progressive advancement in laying dates was not associated with an increase in population level productivity| despite the fact that productivity declined with laying date at the individual territory level within years. Avian response to climate change may be occurring more rapidly than previously thought| even in relatively long-lived species| and not only at the most northern latitudes or highest elevations. Because this change has occurred so rapidly| and because laying dates match annual variations in spring temperatures| the response must be facultatively driven by prevailing conditions| rather than genetic in response to natural selection. 6252,2003,2,2,Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: future streamflows in Britain,Climate change impact assessments conventionally assess just the implications of a change in mean climate due to global warming. This paper compares such effects of such changes with those due to natural multi-decadal variability| and also explores the effects of changing the year-to-year variability in climate as well as the mean. It estimates changes in mean monthly flows and a measure of low flow (the flow exceeded 95% of|the time) in six catchments in Britain| Using the UKCIP98 climate change scenarios and a calibrated hydrological model. Human-induced climate change has a different seasonal effect on flows than natural multi-decadal variability (an increase in winter and decrease in summer)| and by the 2050s the climate change signal is apparent in winter and| in lowland Britain| in summer. Superimposing natural multidecadal variability onto the human-induced climate change increases substantially the range in possible future streamflows (in some instances counteracting the climate change signal)| with important implications for the development of adaptation strategies. Increased year-to-year variability in climate leads to slight increases in mean monthly flows (relative to changes due just to changes in mean climate)| and slightly greater decreases in low flows. The greatest effect on low flows occurs in upland catchments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6011,2003,5,4,Relative influences of current and historical factors on mammal and bird diversity patterns in deglaciated North America,Aim To investigate the relative contributions of current vs. historical factors in explaining broad-scale diversity gradients using a combination of contemporary factors and a quantitative estimate of the temporal accessibility of areas for recolonization created by glacial retreat following the most recent Ice Age. Location The part of the Nearctic region of North America that was covered by ice sheets during the glacial maximum 20 000 BP. Methods We used range maps to estimate the species richness of mammals and terrestrial birds in 48 400 km(2) cells. Current conditions in each cell were quantified using seven climatic and topographical variables. Historical conditions were estimated using the number of years before present when an area became exposed as the ice sheets retreated during the post-Pleistocene climate warming. We attempted to tease apart contemporary and historical effects using multiple regression| partial regression and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results A measure of current energy inputs| potential evapotranspiration| explained 76-82% of the variance in species richness| but time since deglaciation explained an additional 8-13% of the variance| primarily due to effects operating at large spatial scales. Because of spatial covariation between the historical climates influencing the melting of the ice sheet and current climates| it was not possible to partition their effects fully| but of the independent effects that could be identified| current climate explained two to seven times more variance in richness patterns than age. Main Conclusions Factors acting in the present appear to have the strongest influence on the diversity gradient| but an historical signal persisting at least 13 000 years is still detectable. This has implications for modelling changes in diversity patterns in response to future global warming. 6306,2003,3,4,Removal of carbon dioxide from flue gas by ammonia carbonation in the gas phase,The increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions and possible global warming have challenged the United States and other countries to find new and better ways to meet the world's increasing needs for energy while| at the same time| reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This study explores the possibility of using ammonium bicarbonate (NH4HCO3) formation by ammonia carbonation in the gas phase to achieve reduction Of CO2 emissions from industrial flue gas. Experimental results obtained in this study demonstrate that removal of flue-gas CO2 can be achieved via formation of solid NH4HCO3 through ammonia carbonation in the gas phase. Removal Of CO2 is quantified by monitoring CO2 concentrations at the entrance and exit of the reactor column. The products of ammonia carbonation were identified by solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance analysis. For the experimental conditions employed in this study| current results show up to 50% removal Of CO2 from the flue gas. Higher efficiencies are likely achievable by optimizing the operating conditions and geometry of the reactor. 2797,2003,3,3,Representing global climate change| adaptation and mitigation,The diagrammatic representation of climate change| adaptation and mitigation is important in conceptualizing the problem| identifying important feedbacks| and communicating between disciplines. The Synthesis Report of the IPCC's Third Assessment Report| 2001| uses a "cause and effect" approach developed in the integrated assessment literature. This viewpoint reviews this approach and suggests an alternative| based on stocks and flows. The alternative gives a much richer representation of the problem so that it includes the enhanced greenhouse effect| ancillary benefits of mitigation| the distinction between climate-change and other stresses on natural systems| and a more refined distinction between adaptation and mitigation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6225,2003,2,3,Response of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to increased carbon dioxide,The response of the IVM RAN coupled atmosphere-ocean model to increased carbon dioxide (CO2) was examined by conducting two 80-year experiments. The CO2 concentration was set equal to its present-day value in the first (control) experiment and was increased by 1% per year from the initially specified present-day value in the second experiment. Global warming at the Earth's surface over the years 61-80 in the latter experiment was found to be about 0.9 K greater than that in the control experiment| and the corresponding increase in precipitation was found to be 0.03 mm day(-1). Warming was maximal in midlatitude Eurasia| where it reached 3-5 K in November-April. About one-third of this warming| most of the precipitation increase over the northern Atlantic and Europe| and most of the precipitation decrease over southern Europe are explained by an increased Arctic Oscillation index. A sensitivity experiment conducted with the atmospheric model having a fixed sea surface temperature (SST) and increased CO2 showed that changes in the atmospheric circulation are similar to those produced by the coupled model| while the global warming of the troposphere and the Earth's surface is several times less than that in the coupled model. The main factor affecting the growth of the global SST and the formation of the spatial pattern of the SST response is a change in the radiation balance of the ocean surface under increased CO2. The response of sea surface salinity is determined primarily by a change in the surface freshwater balance. Moreover| the sea surface salinity decreases in the Pacific and increases in the Atlantic. 2737,2003,2,4,Response of coral assemblages to the interaction between natural temperature variation and rare warm-water events,We examined changes in coral assemblages in four back-reef locations across the warm 1998 E 1 Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event based on annually collected line-transect data from 3 years before and after this event. The physical locations of the reefs differed such that there was a 120%-275% warm-season range in the SDs of seawater temperatures but only minor differences in mean temperatures| based on 2 non-ENSO years. We tested the predictions that (a) rare warm-water events would produce fewer changes in eurythermal than stenothermal coral assemblages; and (b) after the disturbance| the stenothermal assemblages would more closely resemble the eurythermal ones. The 1998 event produced fewer changes in coral cover and community similarity among the assemblages in the reefs with high variation in temperature than in those with low variation in temperature. Despite the initially lower taxonomic richness in the eurythermal assemblage| there was an additional loss of taxonomic richness in the high and none in the stenothermal reefs. There was some evidence for taxonomic convergence| of the stenothermal towards the eurythermal reefs and a general loss of some of the branching taxa| such as branching Porites| Pavona| and Stylophora| and a relative increase in massive Porites and Favia. There was| however| moderate site specificity that did not produce true convergence. The eurythermal assemblages maintained the basic community structure but lost taxonomic richness| whereas the opposite was true for the stenothermal assemblages. 2795,2003,2,3,Response of growth and yield of rice (Oryza sativa) to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide in the subhumid zone of Sri Lanka,Increasing atmospheric CO2 is recognized as a major aspect of global climate change that would have a significant impact on the productivity of major agricultural crops. Two field experiments were done| with the objective of quantifying the response of a short-duration rice (Oryza sativa ) variety (BG-300) to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide| in the low elevation| subhumid zone of Sri Lanka. The experiment contained three treatments. In the elevated CO2 treatment| rice was grown at a CO2 concentration of 570 mumol/mol within open top chambers (OTC s). The ambient CO2 treatment included crops grown within OTC s| but maintained at the ambient CO2 concentration of 370 mumol/mol. The third treatment was a crop grown in the open field under ambient CO2 concentration. Grain yields of rice crops grown under elevated CO2 were 24 % and 39 % greater than the respective ambient treatments in the maha (January - March 2001) and yala (May - August| 2001) seasons. Significant increases in total biomass at harvest (23 % and 39 %| respectively| in maha and yala ) were more responsible for the above yield increases than the slight increases in the harvest index (4 % and 2 %). Yields of the ambient and open field treatments did not differ significantly. Among the yield components| the number of panicles per hill was significantly higher in the elevated treatment and showed significant positive correlations with grain yield in both seasons. In addition| grain yield showed significant positive correlations with the percentage of filled grains in maha and the number of grains per panicle in yala . Significant increases in the number of tillers per hill under elevated CO2 were responsible for its greater leaf area index and the greater numbers of panicles per hill. Crops under elevated CO2 accumulated biomass faster than those grown under ambient CO2 during the vegetative and grain-filling stages. The results of this study demonstrate that elevated CO2 causes significant yield increases in rice| even when it is grown in warm| subhumid tropical climates. 6291,2003,5,4,Response of past and present Mediterranean ecosystems to environmental change,Mediterranean ecosystems contain some of the highest levels of plant diversity of any region on Earth and are amongst those believed to be most at risk from the consequences of global warming. Yet such ecosystems are not static and have responded to environmental changes at a variety of scales and from a variety of causes| particularly climatic and anthropogenic. The purpose of this paper is to review recent research on environmental change and ecosystem response. Long-term records are available to analyse changes over glacial-interglacial cycles| while high resolution records show the sensitivity and coupling of Mediterranean| North Atlantic and Greenland records. For the Holocene| there is continued debate about the relative impact of anthropogenic activity but there is also increasing recognition that mediterranean-type ecosystems should not be regarded as fragile| degraded landscapes| but are disturbance-adapted. Nevertheless| conservation measures face increasing challenges from contemporary climate change and human pressures. Some insights into the identification of refugial areas| either in glacial times or for present-day conservation purposes| come from molecular biogeographical studies of past faunal and floral distribution. 6085,2003,2,3,Response of the Indian monsoon and ENSO-monsoon teleconnection to enhanced greenhouse effect in the CNRM coupled model,The present study is an assessment of a two-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations| with a focus on the Indian summer monsoon and ENSO-monsoon teleconnection. The CNRM ocean-atmosphere coupled model is integrated from 1950 to 2099 and driven by changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. The simulated monsoon climate is first validated against available observations and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses over the second half of the 20(th) century. The model captures the main features of the Indian monsoon climate and the main mode of variability found in the tropical regions| namely the El Nino Southern Oscillation| reasonably well. During the second half of the 21(st) century| both scenarios indicate a significant increase in the annual mean surface air temperature (about 2degreesC) and in monsoon precipitation (less than 10%) over India| relative to the 1950-1999 climatology. However| the model does not show a clear strengthening of the monsoon circulation| but rather a northward shift of the westerly monsoon flow. The increase in monsoon precipitation is therefore partly due to a 'non-dynamical' response to global warming| namely a large increase in precipitable water over India. While the transient response of the model shows a qualitative agreement with the surface warming observed over recent decades| neither the observations nor the model indicate significant trends in All India monsoon rainfall in the late 20th century. A long-term increase in simulated monsoon precipitation does appear from 1950 to 2099| but is superimposed onto relatively large multi-decadal fluctuations. The simulated ENSO-monsoon teleconnection also shows a strong modulation on multi-decadal time scales| but no systematic change with increasing amounts of greenhouse gases. 5973,2003,3,4,Restoration of former wetlands in the Netherlands; effect on the balance between CO2 sink and CH4 source,Drained coastal peatlands are a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) through abundant CO2 release caused by aerobic peat degradation. Published rates of CO2| fixation and CH4| release for natural peatlands suggest that areas of peat formation are a (small) net source of GHG emission because the radiative effect of emitted CH4 exceeds the CO2 uptake by the vegetation. It is shown here that wetland restoration of reclaimed peat areas in the western Netherlands leads to a reduction of GHG emission because the expected increase in anaerobically generated CH4 release is much smaller than the decrease in aerobically produced CO2. 2803,2003,3,3,Restructuring and afforestation of hardpan area to sequester carbon,Afforestation is one of the most promising measures to mitigate global climate change because the expected carbon stock is estimated at as much as tens of tons per hectare or more. However| possible large-scale afforestation areas are limited to unused or ineffectively-used and type lands. In the present study| a hardpan layer in Western Australia in an and zone with no remarkable vegetation| a land type which is often found in the and zones of the world| was blasted to produce holes and cracks for water penetration and root development. This study shows that hardpan blasting drastically accelerated root development and tree growth one or two years after planting. The blasting was done with additional CO2 emission of only one fortieth of the CO2 expected to be absorbed by trees after maturity. 6169,2003,2,4,Role of environmental stress in the physiological response to chemical toxicants,Environmental physiology is the study of the physiological mechanisms that allow animals to cope with and adapt to changes in temperature| humidity| atmospheric pressure| and other natural factors of their physical environment. Nearly all toxicological and pharmacological studies are performed in resting (i.e.| nonexercising) experimental animals acclimatized to standard environmental conditions that are usually considered ideal to the animal's physiological well-being. These ideal test conditions are clearly not representative of the fluctuations in the natural environment encountered by humans and other animals on a day-to-day basis. It behooves the toxicologist| especially those interested in extrapolating experimental data from laboratory animals to humans| to consider how variations in the natural environment will alter physiological responses to toxicants. Temperature and exercise are the two most well-studied parameters in the fields of environmental physiology and toxicology. In general| high temperatures exacerbate the toxic effects of many environmental toxicants. Moreover| exercising subjects are generally more vulnerable to airborne toxic agents. The prospect of global warming also warrants a better assessment of how higher environmental temperatures may impact on the response of humans and other species to toxic chemicals. Hence| this paper and accompanying papers from the proceedings of a symposium focus on the salient aspects of the interaction between environmental stress and physiological response to toxic agents with particular emphasis on temperature and exercise. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved. 2711,2003,2,4,Rubisco expression in rice leaves is related to genotypic variation of photosynthesis under elevated growth CO2 and temperature,Genetic modifications of agronomic crops will likely be necessary to cope with global climate change. This study tested the hypotheses that genotypic differences in rice (Oryza sativa L.) leaf photosynthesis at elevated [CO2] and temperature are related to protein and gene expression of Rubisco| and that high growth temperatures under elevated [CO2] negatively affect photosystem II (PSII) photochemical efficiency. Two rice cultivars representing an indica (cv. IR72) and japonica type (cv. M103) were grown in 350 (ambient) and 700 (elevated) mumol CO2 mol(-1) at 28/18| 34/24 and 40/30degreesC sinusoidal maximum/minimum| day/night temperatures in outdoor| sunlit| environment-controlled chambers. Leaf photosynthesis of IR72 favoured higher growth temperatures more than M103. Rubisco total activity and protein content were negatively affected in both genotypes by high temperatures and elevated CO2. However| at moderate to high growth temperatures| IR72 leaves averaged 71 and 39% more rbcS transcripts than M103 under ambient and elevated CO2| respectively| and likewise had greater Rubisco activity and protein content. Expression of psbA (D1 protein of PSII) in IR72 leaves increased with temperature| whereas it remained constant for M103| except for a 20% decline at 40/30degreesC under elevated CO2. Even at the highest growth temperatures| PSII photochemical efficiency was not impaired in either genotype grown under either ambient or elevated CO2. Genotypic differences exist in rice for carboxylation responses to elevated CO2 and high temperatures| which may be useful in developing genotypes suited to cope with global climate changes. 2712,2003,2,4,Scale dependency of rarity| extinction risk| and conservation priority,In developing red data books of threatened species| the World Conservation Union uses measures of rarity| rates of decline| and population fragmentation to categorize species according to their risk of extinction. However| most quantitative measures of these three concepts are sensitive to the scale at which they are made. In particular| definitions of rarity based on an area-of-occupancy threshold can nearly always be met if area of occupancy is calculated from a sufficiently fine-scale (high-resolution) grid. Recommendations for dealing with scale dependency include (1) choosing a standard scale of measurement| (2) using multiple scales of measurement| and (3) developing indices that combine information from multiple scales. As an example of the second and third approach| the construction of a species' scale-area curve represents a unifying method for quantifying all three indicators of extinction risk-rarity| rate of decline| and population fragmentation-as functions of area of occupancy and measurement scale. A multiscale analysis is also of practical importance because measurements made at different scales are relevant to different extinction processes. Coarse-scale measures of rarity are most appropriate when threat is assessed on the basis of spatially autocorrelated events of a large extent| such as global climate change| whereas fine-scale measures may best predict extinction risk due to local processes such as demographic stochasticity. We illustrate our arguments with a case study of the British distributions of two related plant species that show a 200-fold reversal in their relative rarity when measured at different scales. 6250,2003,4,4,Scaling in the atmosphere: On global laws of persistence and tests of climate models,Characterizing the complex atmospheric variability at all pertinent temporal and spatial scales remains one of the most important challenges to scientific research today.(1-5) The main issues are to quantify| within reasonably narrow limits| the potential extent of global warming| and to downscale the global results in order to describe and quantify the regional implications of global change. 2760,2003,4,4,Scaling metabolism from organisms to ecosystems,Understanding energy and material fluxes through ecosystems is central to many questions in global change biology and ecology(1-11). Ecosystem respiration is a critical component of the carbon cycle(1|5-7) and might be important in regulating biosphere response to global climate change(1-3). Here we derive a general model of ecosystem respiration based on the kinetics of metabolic reactions(11-13) and the scaling of resource use by individual organisms(14|15). The model predicts that fluxes of CO2 and energy are invariant of ecosystem biomass| but are strongly influenced by temperature| variation in cellular metabolism and rates of supply of limiting resources (water and/or nutrients). Variation in ecosystem respiration within sites| as calculated from a network of CO2 flux towers(5|7)| provides robust support for the model's predictions. However| data indicate that variation in annual flux between sites is not strongly dependent on average site temperature or latitude. This presents an interesting paradox with regard to the expected temperature dependence. Nevertheless| our model provides a basis for quantitatively understanding energy and material flux between the atmosphere and biosphere. 6073,2003,3,3,Scenarios and metrics as guides to a sustainable future - The case of energy supply,World energy demand is expected to increase to several times its current level over the next 50 years. Much of this energy will come from fossil fuel| a finite resource| which moreover generates carbon dioxide| a cause of global warming. The incentive to develop other| renewable forms of energy is therefore strong| but how can we be sure that our expectations for the future form a rational basis for determining energy policy? The scenario planning technique does not attempt to predict the future| but offers a variety of visions against which current actions and policies can be tested. To guide the move towards a more sustainable future it is also important to be able to monitor our progress. The use of sustainability metrics| tailored to a particular purpose| and relating to resource efficiency| environmental protection| economic benefits and social development| is a way of quantifying this progress. The set of indicators illustrates the 'sustainability footprint' of an enterprise. 6044,2003,2,4,Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change,We propose that past abrupt climate changes were probably a result of rapid and extensive variations in sea-ice cover. We explain why this seems a perhaps more likely explanation than a purely thermohaline circulation mechanism. We emphasize that because of the significant influence of sea ice on the climate system| it seems that high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing high-resolution (in space and time) sea-ice extent for past climate-change events. If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past abrupt climate-change events| it seems less likely that such dramatic abrupt changes will occur due to global warming| when extensive sea-ice cover will not be present. 6195,2003,2,4,Seasonal models of herpangina and hand-foot-mouth disease to simulate annual fluctuations in urban warming in Tokyo,In order to investigate the effects of global warming| we attempted to establish seasonal models to predict fluctuations in rates of herpangina (HA) and hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) associated with weather conditions and calendar months in Tokyo| Japan. Surveillance data tracking HA/HFMD incidences in Tokyo was retrieved from the Infectious Agents Surveillance Report| published by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Japan. From the Meteorological Agency| we obtained data for 54 weather condition parameters. The annual fluctuations in reported HA cases comprising start| peak| and end weeks almost exactly matched the model| although peak levels for each fluctuation did not always match in HFMD. Furthermore| for the HA model| 88% of the variations among observed HA cases were explained by the linear relationship with the seasonal parameters investigated| which was higher than the 64% observed for the HFMD model. The HA and HFMD models were applied to data from the years 1999 to 2002| and demonstrated correlations of 86% and 64%| respectively. These models predicted that warmer climate conditions would lead to an increased number of HA and HFMD cases. These results suggest that our seasonal models may quantify the dependency of infectious diseases on seasonal parameters and simulate the impact of global warming. 6256,2003,5,4,Sediment core profiles of long-chain n-alkanes in the Sea of Okhotsk: Enhanced transport of terrestrial organic matter from the last deglaciation to the early Holocene,[1] Terrestrial plant-derived n-alkanes (C-25-C-35)were measured in three piston cores (PC1| PC2 and PC4) in the Sea of Okhotsk covering the last 30 kyrs. Down core profiles of the n-alkane concentrations and mass accumulation rates (MAR) were characterized by deglacial maxima. In particular| cores PC2 and PC4| which were collected from the central and western Sea of Okhotsk| respectively| show a two-step increase around the Meltwater Pulse events (MWP) 1A (14.5-13.5 kyr BP) and 1B (about 10 kyr BP). This finding was interpreted by the outflow of terrestrial organic matter from the submerged land shelf to the Sea of Okhotsk through the East Sakhalin Current. This study demonstrated that the sea level rise forced by global warming in the deglaciation period may have caused the enhanced transport of terrestrial organic matter in marginal seas. 6309,2003,5,4,Sedimentary charcoal as an indicator of late-Holocene drought in the Sierra Nevada| California| and its relevance to the future,A Holocene record of climate| fire and vegetation regimes was reconstructed for Siesta Lake| Yosemite National Park| California| using fossil pollen and charcoal from lake sediments. These reconstructions were generated to provide a long-term perspective on drought in the Sierra Nevada. The sedimentary record is in agreement with other long-term records of climate and vegetation from the Sierra Nevada| and the records of climate and tire for the last c. 1000 years are in agreement with tree-ring and hydrological studies. This correspondence suggests that sedimentary charcoal and pollen are reliable indicators of change in climate| vegetation and fire frequency through time. The fire frequencies associated with the droughts of the 'Mediaeval Warm Period' are only half as great as those recorded during the early-Holocene insolation maximum. Model results suggest that the temperature increases associated with the insolation maximum are a good analogue for those expected with global warming. If this is the case| future droughts may be more severe than any experienced in the last several thousand years| and these data should be considered in planning for future change. 6155,2003,2,4,Shifting economic impacts from weather extremes in the United States: A result of societal changes| not global warming,Loss values from extremes in the U. S. and elsewhere have been more qualitative than quantitative| but recent pressures for better information have led to new assessments and better estimates of financial losses from extremes. These pressures have included concerns over potential impacts of more extremes due to global warming fostered by ever increasing costs to the insurance industry and government from weather extremes; plus a series of massive losses during the past 15 years (drought of 1988-1989| Hurricane Andrew in 1992| and Midwestern 1993 floods). These recent assessments attempted to adjust data for societal changes over time and thus derived new and better estimates of losses for seven major extremes than existed previously. Three extremes have annual average losses in excess of a billion dollars (1998 dollars) including hurricanes ($4.2 billion)| floods ($3.2 billion)| and severe local storms ($1.6 billion). One extreme and its adjusted losses exhibit upward trends (floods)| but all others show no increases with time or temporal decreases ( hail| hurricanes| tornadoes| and severe thunderstorms). Annual national losses during 1950-1997 from the three major extremes| plus four others (hail| tornadoes| winter storms| and wind storms)| collectively reveal no upward or downward trend over time| with an average annual loss of $10.3 billion. The quality loss values do not indicate an increase as has been postulated for global warming. The good news is that better estimates of impacts now exist| but the bad news is that they are still estimates and do not include sizable unmeasured losses. If accurate data on the economic impacts from weather extremes are seen as important for scientific research and policy-making for global warming| the U. S. needs a continuing program to adequately measure losses from weather extremes. 6004,2003,2,4,Shifts in winter distribution in birds: Effects of global warming and local habitat change,As global warming intensified toward the end of the 20(th) century| there was a northward shift in winter ranges of bird species in Cape Cod| Massachusetts| USA. These poleward shifts were correlated to local increases in minimum winter temperatures and global temperature anomalies. This evidence| plus other recent results| suggests that during the last two decades global warming has led to massive and widespread biogeographic shifts with potentially major ecological and human consequences. Local habitat changes associated with urban sprawl affected mainly forest birds with more northern winter distributions. In Cape Cod| the effects of warming on bird distributions are more substantial at the start of the 21(st) century| than those of habitat alteration| but as urban sprawl continues its importance may rival that of global warming. 6002,2003,3,4,Short- and long-term releases of fluorocarbons from disposal of polyurethane foam waste,Several halocarbons having very high global warming or ozone depletion potentials have been used as a blowing agent (BA) for insulation foam in home appliances| such as refrigerators and freezers. Many appliances are shredded after the end of their useful life. Release experiments carried out in the laboratory on insulation foam blown with the blowing agents CFC-11| HCFC-141b| HCF-134fa| and HFC-245fa revealed that not all blowing agents are released during a 6-week period following the shredding process. The experiments confirmed the hypothesis that the release could be divided into three segments: By shredding foam panels| a proportion of the closed cells is either split or damaged to a degree allowing for a sudden release of the contained atmosphere in the cell (the instantaneous release). Cells adjacent to the cut surface may be only slightly damaged by tiny cracks or holes allowing a relative slow release of the BA to the surroundings (the short-term release). A significant portion of the cells in the foam particle will be unaffected and only allows release governed by slow diffusion through the PUR cell wall (the long-term release). The magnitude of the releases is for all three types highly dependent on how fine the foam is shredded. The residual blowing agent remaining after the 6-week period may be very slowly released if the integrity of the foam particles with respect to diffusion properties is kept after disposal of the foam waste on landfills. It is shown by setting up a national model simulating the BA releases following decommissioning of used domestic refrigerators/freezers in the United States that the release patterns are highly dependent on how the appliances are shredded. 5990,2003,3,3,Siberian wetlands: Where a sink is a source,[1] A greenhouse gas inventory can for some ecosystems be based solely on the net CO2 exchange with the atmosphere and the export of dissolved organic carbon. In contrast| the global warming effect may be more complex in ecosystems where other greenhouse gases such as CH4 or N2O have significant exchanges with the atmosphere. Through micrometeorological landscape- scale measurements from the largest wetlands on Earth in West Siberia we show that CH4 has a stronger effect than CO2 on the greenhouse gas budget in terms of radiative forcing on the atmosphere. Direct measurements of the CO2 and CH4 exchange during the summer of 1999 show that these wetland ecosystems| on average| acted as net sinks of carbon of 0.5 g C m(-2) day(-1) but large net sources of CH4. Given the high Global Warming Potential of CH4| the Siberian wetlands are an important source of radiative forcing| even in comparison to anthropogenic emissions. 6107,2003,4,3,Simulated changes due to global warming in daily precipitation means and extremes and their interpretation using the gamma distribution,The potential change in precipitation due to global warming is studied using five-member ensembles of climate simulations by the CSIRO Mark 2 atmosphere-ocean model for the period 1871-1990 and forward to 2100 under both the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 (rapid CO2 increase) and B2 (moderate increase) forcing scenarios. The mean surface warming for the period 1961-1990 is 0.3 K. The warming from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 is 3.5 K under A2| 29% more than for B2| and with a very similar spatial pattern. The daily precipitation (P) frequency distributions for January and July days in these periods are presented| focusing on the A2 case. The distributions for wet days at each point are approximated by the gamma distribution. The global mean P increase of around 6%| in both months| is related to a mean increase in the gamma's scale parameter of 18%| offset by small decreases in the shape parameter and wet day frequency. However| local changes of opposite signs also occur| especially in the tropics. Ensemble averages of 30-year extreme daily precipitation for January and July| and other months| are generally greater for 2071-2100 than for 1961-1990| with an average increase of 14%. Extreme value theory based on the monthly gamma distributions provides a good match to these values. The theory is extended to the annual case. In general| the 1961-1990 extremes peak in the subtropical rainbands in the model| where increases of 10 to 30% are common. Larger relative increases occur in polar regions| and also over northern land in January. 2787,2003,2,2,Simulation of impact of projected climate change on wheat in India,The problem of global climate change due to natural processes and anthropogenic sources and its impacts on world food security in general and its regional impacts in particular have come to forefront of the scientific community in recent years. Though the uncertainty of projected climate change at the regional level is higher| it is still necessary to assess its impacts on crop productivity for formulating response strategies. Climate change scenarios projected by the middle of the current century| based on the latest studies| were created and the impacts of concurrent changes of temperature and CO2 on the growth| development and yields of wheat in northwest India were quantified using a state-of-the-art dynamic simulation model. Yield enhancements of the order of 29-37% and 16-28% under tainted and irrigated conditions respectively in different genotypes were observed under a modified climate (T-max + 1.0degreesC| T-min + 1.5degreesC| 2 x CO2). Any further increase beyond 3degreesC cancelled the beneficial impact of enhanced CO2. Adaptation measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change included possible changes in sowing dates and genotype selection. Enhancement of sowing by 10 days in late-sown cultivars and delaying of sowing by 10 days in normally sown cultivars resulted in higher yields under a modified climate| whereas a reduction in yield was observed in the reverse strategies. Copyright (C) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society. 6176,2003,2,3,Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCCSRES A2 and B2 scenarios,In this paper| we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases| i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios| to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and| hence| enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular| the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition| from the southeastern coastal area to North China| the rainfall would increase significantly in September| implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July| August and September| the inter-annual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China| meaning a risk of flooding in the future. 6181,2003,3,4,SiO2 etching with perfluorobutadiene in a dual frequency plasma reactor,The plasma etching Of SiO2 has been investigated in perfluorobutadiene-oxygen containing plasmas using a homemade dual frequency reactor. The process has been characterized by evaluating SiO2 etch rate| SiO2-to-Si selectivity| the surface contamination of Si| and the atmospheric emission of greenhouse gases. The plasma phase has been studied by means of optical emission spectroscopy. Perfluorobutadiene appears to be promising for replacing conventional high global warming potential reactants in SiO2 dry etching. (C) 2003 American Vacuum Society. 2841,2003,2,4,Size and growth of the crabeater seal Lobodon carcinophagus (Mammalia : Carnivora),Growth in length and weight of a large sample of crabeater seals Lobodon carcinophagus collected over the period 1967-78 is reported. Growth in dorsal standard length of 1146 seals (490 males| 656 females) from 0.5 to 20 years of age was similar to the pattern seen in other phocid seals. Length was plotted against age and Gompertz curves fitted to the data. Growth rates were estimated from the derived equations: males| y=231.9-58.7 e(-0.55t); females| y=236.8-63.6 e(-0.44t). The asymptote is at approximate length 234 cm and age 10 years in both males and females. Body weights were recorded for 249 seals aged from 0.5 to 20 years| of which reliable age estimates for 230 (100 males| 130 females) were available. Rates of growth in body weight were estimated from the derived equations: males| y=200.0-94.1 e(-0.48t); females y=212.4-116.2 e(-1.40t). The best estimate of body weight from linear body measurements is obtainable from a predictive equation relating body weight| length and axillary girth| determined by maximum likelihood: W=0.000046 LG(2) (W| body weight; L| dorsal standard length; G| axillary girth). There was no significant difference between the sexes. Seasonal variations in body condition could not be determined because all animals were sampled in February and March. However| inter-year differences in recovery of body condition of adults| following the demands of breeding and moulting in the spring and summer| were observed. The data represent a unique time series covering the 1960s and 1970s. In terms of global climate change they should provide a valuable baseline for future studies. 2706,2003,2,4,Soil and rhizosphere microorganisms have the same Q(10) for respiration in a model system,We compared the Q(10) relationship for root-derived respiration (including respiration due to the root| external mycorrhizal mycelium and rhizosphere microorganisms) with that of mainly external ectomycorrhizal mycelium and that of bulk soil microorganisms without any roots present. This was studied in a microcosm consisting of an ectomycorrhizal Pinus muricata seedling growing in a sandy soil| and where roots were allow to colonize one soil compartment| mycorrhizal mycelium another compartment| and the last compartment consisted of root- and mycorrhiza-free soil. The respiration rate in the bulk soil compartment was 30 times lower than in the root compartment| while that in the mycorrhizal compartment was six times lower. There were no differences in Q(10) (for 5-15degreesC) between the different compartments| indicating that there were no differences in the temperature relationship between root-associated and non-root-associated organisms. Thus| there are no indications that different Q(10) values should be used for different soil organism| bulk soil or rhizosphere-associated microorganisms when modelling the effects of global climate change. 6062,2003,2,4,Soil respiration responses to temperature are controlled more by roots than by decomposition in balsam fir ecosystems,Concern exists that soil respiration (R-s) will increase with global warming| thereby reducing the sink strength of forest ecosystems for carbon (C) or making them sources. We measured R-s at three balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) sites on a climatic gradient from 1997 to 2000 to assess potential responses to global warming. Mean annual R-s varied from 0.67 kg C.m(-2).year(-1) at the cool site| to 1.19 kg C.m(-2).year(-1) at the midtransect site| to 1.52 kg C.m(-2).year(-1) at the warm site. Trenched plots were installed in 1999 to partition R-s into root respiration (R-r) and heterotrophic respiration (R-h). Differences in trenched-plot respiration (R-t) among sites were much less than differences in R-s| because trenching reduced R-s at the warm site more than at the cool site. Annual R-t was 22% less than annual R-s at the cool site| 36% less at the midtransect site| and 50% less at the warm site. After making adjustments for extraordinary decomposition of killed roots in trenched plots| it was estimated that annual R-h varied little among sites (0.40 kg C.m(-2).year(-1) at the cool site to 0.54 kg C.m(-2).year(-1) at the warm site)| but annual R-r varied substantially among sites (0.24 kg C.m(-2).year(-1) at the cool site to 0.98 kg C.m(-2).year(-1) at the warm site). We conclude that R-s varied among sites| because climatically driven differences in primary productivity caused greater R-r and greater detrital production for R-h. 2779,2003,4,4,Solar activity and terrestrial climate: an analysis of some purported correlations,The last decade has seen a revival of various hypotheses claiming a strong correlation between solar activity and a number of terrestrial climate parameters: Links between cosmic rays and cloud cover| first total cloud cover and then only low clouds| and between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures. These hypotheses play an important role in the scientific as well as in the public debate about the possibility or reality of a man-made global climate change. I have analyzed a number of published graphs which have played a major role in these debates and which have been claimed to support solar hypotheses. My analyses show that the apparent strong correlations displayed on these graphs have been obtained by an incorrect handling of the physical data. Since the graphs are still widely referred to in the literature and their misleading character has not yet been generally recognized| I have found it appropriate to deliver the present overview. Especially| I want to caution against drawing any conclusions based upon these graphs concerning the possible wisdom or futility of reducing the emissions of man-made greenhouse gases. My findings do not by any means rule out the existence of important links between solar activity and terrestrial climate. Such links have over the years been demonstrated by many authors. The sole objective of the present analysis is to draw attention to the fact that some of the widely publicized| apparent correlations do not properly reflect the underlying physical data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6248,2003,4,2,Solar and greenhouse gas forcing and climate response in the twentieth century,Ensemble experiments with a global coupled climate model are performed for the twentieth century with time-evolving solar| greenhouse gas| sulfate aerosol (direct effect)| and ozone (tropospheric and stratospheric) forcing. Observed global warming in the twentieth century occurred in two periods| one in the early twentieth century from about the early 1900s to the 1940s| and one later in the century from| roughly| the late 1960s to the end of the century. The model's response requires the combination of solar and anthropogenic forcing to approximate the early twentieth-century warming| while the radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gases is dominant for the response in the late twentieth century| confirming previous studies. Of particular interest here is the model's amplification of solar forcing when this acts in combination with anthropogenic forcing. This difference is traced to the fact that solar forcing is more spatially heterogeneous (i.e.| acting most strongly in areas where sunlight reaches the surface) while greenhouse gas forcing is more spatially uniform. Consequently| solar forcing is subject to coupled regional feedbacks involving the combination of temperature gradients| circulation regimes| and clouds. The magnitude of these feedbacks depends on the climate's base state. Over relatively cloud-free oceanic regions in the subtropics| the enhanced solar forcing produces greater evaporation. More moisture then converges into the precipitation convergence zones| intensifying the regional monsoon and Hadley and Walker circulations| causing cloud reductions over the subtropical ocean regions| and| hence| more solar input. An additional response to solar forcing in northern summer is an enhancement of the meridional temperature gradients due to greater solar forcing over land regions that contribute to stronger West African and South Asian monsoons. Since the greenhouse gases are more spatially uniform| such regional circulation feedbacks are not as strong. These regional responses are most evident when the solar forcing occurs in concert with increased greenhouse gas forcing. The net effect of enhanced solar forcing in the early twentieth century is to produce larger solar-induced increases of tropical precipitation when calculated as a residual than for early century solar-only forcing| even though the size of the imposed solar forcing is the same. As a consequence| overall precipitation increases in the early twentieth century in the Asian monsoon regions are greater than late century increases| qualitatively consistent with observed trends in all-India rainfall. Similar effects occur in West Africa| the tropical Pacific| and the Southern Ocean tropical convergence zones. 2823,2003,3,4,Solar energy for India - Status| potential and impact,It reviews the development of solar energy science and technology in India during last 40 y to a stage where India has one of the largest R&D and solar technology application program in the world touching every nook and corner of the country. Solar water heaters| box type cookers and home lighting systems using solar PV have become widely available at reasonable costs appropriate to them. Original lacunae of top down planning without participatory decision making of users| subsidy driven programs| lack of monitoring and preventive maintenance and non-application of the solar energy with a view to resource augmentation and equity| are now in the process of being eliminated. Emergence of considerations of pollution free clean development| global climate change and stress on creation of livelihoods vis-a-vis satisfaction of basic needs and requirements of quality in open marketing system rather than hands on indigenisation are the current stream in full force. The real solution will be somewhere in the middle for developing countries| where efficiency per unit cost of devices and systems and least capital cost of creating sustainable livelihoods will define the site specific recipes most effective to each situation. This has yet to happen. A technological shift has been from dreams of complete energy autonomy to hybridization and partial autonomy because| given the requirements of entrenched life styles in rich countries and aspirations of less developed countries| the former was economically not viable. Passive systems of building for climate tempering and solar PV integrated with buildings are taking shape now and will be the mainstream of immediate future. Also| briefly covered are the path breaking scientific advances of photochemical and microbial production of hydrogen| its storage and use in fuel cells which are in their initial stages| but are promising avenues. Since most of these technologies are proprietary| even at the risk of reinventing the wheel. India has to strike its own path. Direct solar| biomass based power generation and wind electric generation are immediate options; solar PV integrated with buildings along with hydrogen based fuel cells (hydrogen|being generated from (wastes/sea water by solar energy) are the solution for the next decade. Considerations of energy equity| security and quality along with non-administered realistic tariffs of oil and electricity provided by conventional means will take care of the economic and ecological options sooner than we expect. 6081,2003,4,4,Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales,[1] Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial| interannual| quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of - 0.1degreesC| similar to that occurring with the interannual signal (i. e.| El Nino-Southern Oscillation)| both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabatic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m(-2) driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean| overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasidecadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m(-2) into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m(-2). This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nino. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of -0.1 W m(-2)| the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly. 5966,2003,4,4,South Pacific origin of the decadal ENSO-like variation as simulated by a coupled GCM,The hypothesis of the South Pacific origin of the decadal (7-35 years) ENSO-like variation is investigated based on 200-year outputs of the ECHAM4/OPA/OASIS coupled GCM. Associated with the decadal warm (cold) SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific| an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation| which is tilted in a southeast-northwest direction| appears in the South Pacific. This results in anomalous upward (downward) Ekman pumping along the northeastern edge of the anomalous circulation and| hence| shallowing (deepening) the oceanic thermocline there. Such an external source of heat content tends to slowly discharge/recharge the tropical ocean on the decadal timescale. The above result is consistent with the observational study of Luo and Yamagata [2001]. Besides| the model reproduces amazingly a high lagged-correlation between the global land surface temperature and the decadal Nino3 SST. Despite the model biases| this suggests a potential prediction skill of the global warming based on the ENSO-like decadal variation. 6164,2003,3,4,Spatial and temporal distributions of US winds and wind power at 80 m derived from measurements,This is a study to quantify U. S. wind power at 80 m (the hub height of large wind turbines) and to investigate whether winds from a network of farms can provide a steady and reliable source of electric power. Data from 1327 surface stations and 87 soundings in the United States for the year 2000 were used. Several methods were tested to extrapolate 10-m wind measurements to 80 m. The most accurate| a least squares fit based on twice-a-day wind profiles from the soundings| resulted in 80-m wind speeds that are| on average| 1.3-1.7 m/s faster than those obtained from the most common methods previously used to obtain elevated data for U. S. wind power maps| a logarithmic law and a power law| both with constant coefficients. The results suggest that U.S. wind power at 80 m may be substantially greater than previously estimated. It was found that 24% of all stations (and 37% of all coastal/offshore stations) are characterized by mean annual speeds greater than or equal to6.9 m/s at 80 m| implying that the winds over possibly one quarter of the United States are strong enough to provide electric power at a direct cost equal to that of a new natural gas or coal power plant. The greatest previously uncharted reservoir of wind power in the continental United States is offshore and nearshore along the southeastern and southern coasts. When multiple wind sites are considered| the number of days with no wind power and the standard deviation of the wind speed| integrated across all sites| are substantially reduced in comparison with when one wind site is considered. Therefore a network of wind farms in locations with high annual mean wind speeds may provide a reliable and abundant source of electric power. 6231,2003,4,4,Spectroscopic measurements of halocarbons and hydrohalocarbons by satellite-borne remote sensors,Infrared spectra recorded by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy Experiment (ATMOS) and the Interferometric Monitor for Greenhouse Gases (IMG) remote sensors have been analyzed by means of line-by-line radiative transfer calculations in order to evaluate the possibilities offered by solar occultation and by nadir instruments to monitor the cholorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and their substitutes. The reliability of the existing spectroscopic parameters has been examined| and it was found that only laboratory parameters measured at high resolution reproduce the satellite observations well. It is shown that solar occultation spectra can give information regarding the atmospheric abundance of CFC-113| in addition to the usual retrievals of CFC-11| CFC-12 and HCFC-22. Also| relying on existing emission scenarios| it is foreseen that future solar occultation experiments| such as the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment ( ACE)| will be able to detect HCFC-142b and HFC-134a| from the year 2005 onward and at low tangent heights. As for the nadir-looking missions| it is found that CFC-11| CFC-12 and HCFC-22 can be retrieved from IMG spectra| provided that numerous measurements are averaged over space or time| thereby mitigating the usefulness of such measurements for determining surface sources. The improved geometrical scanning performances of the future nadir-looking Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES)| however| are shown to be more promising in this respect. 6221,2003,2,3,Stability analysis of the climate-vegetation system in the northern high latitudes,The stability of the climate-vegetation system in the northern high latitudes is analysed with three climate system models of different complexity: A comprehensive 3-diniensional model of the climate system| GENESIS-IBIS| and two Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs)| CLIMBER-2 and MoBidiC. The biogeophysical feedback in the latitudinal belt 60-70degrees N| although positive| is not strong enough to support multiple steady states: A unique equilibrium in the climate-vegetation system is simulated by all the models on a zonal scale for present-day climate and doubled CO2 climate. EMIC simulations with decreased insolation also reveal a unique steady state. However| the climate sensitivity to tree cover| DeltaT(F)| exhibits non-linear behaviour within the models. For GENESIS-IBIS and CLIMBER-2| DeltaT(F) is lower for doubled CO2 climate than for present-day climate due to a shorter snow season and increased relative significance of the hydrological effect of forest cover. For the EMICs| DeltaT(F) is higher for low tree fraction than for high tree fraction| mainly due to a time shift in spring snow melt in response to changes in tree cover. The climate sensitivity to tree cover is reduced when thermohaline circulation feedbacks are accounted for in the EMIC simulations. Simpler parameterizations of oceanic processes have opposite effects on DeltaT(F): DeltaT(F) is lower in simulations with fixed SSTs and higher in simulations with mixed layer oceans. Experiments with transient CO2 forcing show climate and vegetation not in equilibrium in the northern high latitudes at the end of the 20th century. The delayed response of vegetation and accelerated global warming lead to rather abrupt changes in northern vegetation cover in the first half of the 21st century| when vegetation cover changes at double the present day rate. 6017,2003,2,4,Statistical analyses on the effects of air temperature fluctuations on river water qualities,In order to gain an insight into the effects of air temperature on river water quality| data were statistically analysed using meteorological and river water quality data. Two types of data set were used for river water temperature. One type involved five sampling points within different rivers where water temperature data were obtained daily| and the other involved 82 sampling points located within 27 rivers where water temperature and other water quality data were obtained monthly. Influential factors for different time scales were investigated. From the analyses| the gradient of water temperature to air temperature considered on a daily scale was 0.1-0.5 degreesC degreesC(-1) and was influenced by the hydrological scale of the river basin. The gradient observed using an annual scale was 0.5-1.5 degrees'C degreesC(-1) and was supposed to be influenced by solar radiation. Under the condition that solar radiation is constant| the gradient on an annual scale was predicted to be less than unity (0.5-0.85 degreesC degreesC(-1)). As for the other indices| from the analysis on an annual scale| an increase in air temperature resulted in an increase in biological oxygen demand and suspended solids| and a decrease in dissolved oxygen in almost all rivers. Based on the results| it was suggested that global warming has a deteriorating effect on river water quality. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons| Ltd. 2824,2003,3,3,Statistical assessment of a paired-site approach for verification of carbon and nitrogen sequestration on Wisconsin Conservation Reserve Program land,The threat of global climate change has provoked policy-makers to consider plausible strategies to slow the accumulation of greenhouse gases-especially carbon dioxide (CO2)-in the atmosphere. One such idea involves the sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C) in degraded agricultural soils as part of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). While the potential for significant C sequestration in CRP grassland ecosystems has been demonstrated| the paired-site sampling approach traditionally used to quantify soil C changes has not been evaluated with robust statistical analysis. In this study| 14 paired CRP (> 8 years old) and cropland sites in Dane County| Wisconsin| were used to assess whether a paired-site sampling design could detect statistically significant differences (ANOVA) in mean soil organic C and total nitrogen (N) storage. We compared 0 to 10 cm (0 to 3.9 in) bulk density and sampled soils (0 to 5 cm| 5 to 10 cm| and 10 to 25 cm [0 to 2 in| 2 to 3.9 in| and 3.9 to 9.8 in]) for textural differences and chemical analysis of organic matter (OM)| soil organic C (SOC)| total N| and pH. The CRP contributed to reducing soil bulk density by 13% (p < 0.001) and increased SOC and OM storage (kg m(-2) [lb ft(-2)]) by 13% to 17% in the 0 to 5 cm (2 in) layer (p = 0.1). We tested the statistical power associated with ANOVA for measured soil properties and calculated minimum detectable differences (MDD). We concluded that 40 to 65 paired sites and soil sampling in 5 cm (2 in) increments near the surface were needed to achieve an 80% confidence level (a = 0.05; β = 0.20) in soil C and N sequestration rates. Because soil C and total N storage was highly variable among these sites (CVs > 20%)| only a 23% to 29% change in existing total organic C and N pools could be reliably detected. While C and N sequestration (247 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1) and 17 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) [220 lb C ac(-1) and 15 lb N ac(-1)]) may be occurring and confined to the surface 5 cm (2 in) as part of the Wisconsin CRP| our sampling design did not statistically support the desired 80% confidence level. We conclude that usage of statistical power analysis is essential to insure a high level of confidence in soil C and N sequestration rates that are quantified using paired plots. 2798,2003,4,4,Stem respiration of Populus species in the third year of free-air CO2 enrichment,Carbon cycling in ecosystems| and especially in forests| is intensively studied to predict the effects of global climate change| and the role which forests may play in 'changing climate change'. One of the questions is whether the carbon balance of forests will be affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Regarding this question| effects of elevated [CO2 ] on woody-tissue respiration have frequently been neglected. Stem respiration of three Populus species (P. alba L. (Clone 2AS-11)| P. nigra L. (Clone Jean Pourtet)| and P. x euramericana (Clone I-214)) was measured in a managed| high-density forest plantation exposed to free-air CO2 enrichment (POPFACE). During the period of measurements| in May of the third year| stem respiration rates were not affected by the FACE treatment. Moreover| FACE did not influence the relationships between respiration rate and both stem temperature and relative growth rate. The results were supported by the reported absence of a FACE-effect on growth and stem wood density. 6246,2003,3,3,Strategic environmental assessment of alternative sewage sludge management scenarios,Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of sewage sludge management in a Danish municipality (Aalborg)| with 160|000 inhabitants using alternative methods for aggregation of environmental impacts was performed. The purpose is to demonstrate the use of SEA in relation to sludge management and to improve SEA methodology. Six different scenarios for management of sewage sludge within the Aalborg municipality involving thermal treatment| composting and landfilling of sludge were evaluated. Environmental impact categories considered were global warming| non-renewable resources (nutrients and fossil fuels) and land use. Impact categories human health| ecotoxicity and soil quality were excluded as methodology for their assessment is not yet fully developed. Thermal sludge treatment with energy utilisation was shown to be a promising option for sewage sludge management in Aalborg. Sensitivity of the relative environmental impacts with respect to calculation methodology and input parameter values were evaluated to identify important parameters and calculation methods. The analysis showed that aggregation procedures| sludge biogas potential and sludge production were very important whereas sludge transport was not. 5979,2003,5,4,Stratigraphic response and mammalian dispersal during initial India-Asia collision: Evidence from the Ghazij Formation| Balochistan| Pakistan,Initial continental collision between India and Asia is thought to have caused significant changes to global climate and biota| yet its timing and biogeographic consequences are uncertain. Structural and geophysical evidence indicates initial collision during the early Paleogene| but sedimentary evidence of this has been controversial owing to the intense deformation and metamorphism along the suture zone. Modern orders of mammals that appeared abruptly on northern continents coincident with the global warming event marking the Paleocene-Eocene boundary are hypothesized to have originated on the Indian subcontinent| but no relevant paleontological information has been available to test this idea. Here we present new paleomagnetic| sedimentologic| and paleontologic evidence to show that the lower Eocene Ghazij Formation of western Pakistan records continental sedimentation and mammalian dispersal associated with initial India-Asia collision. Our results are consistent with the initial collision occurring near the Paleocene-Eocene boundary| but modern orders of mammals appeared later in Indo-Pakistan and thus did not likely originate on the Indian subcontinent. 6244,2003,5,3,Stratigraphy of the mid-Holocene black bands in Lakes Michigan and Huron: Evidence for possible basin-wide anoxia,The post- glacial history of the Great Lakes has involved several changes in lake levels throughout the latest Pleistocene and Holocene| resulting from the changing position of the retreating Laurentide ice sheet| outlet incision and isostatic rebound. The final lowering of lake levels occurred at approximately 7600 C-14 yr BP| after which lake levels began to rise again to the Nipissing highstand at approximately 4700 C-14 yr BP. During this time of rising lake levels| black bands of iron sulfide were being formed in the sediments of all five of the Great Lakes. These bands signify suboxic to anoxic conditions| at least within the sediments and possibly at the sediment- water interface| during the middle Holocene warm interval. During this interval| the climate was warmer and drier than present| possibly resulting in the occasional absence of seasonal turnover in the lakes. We examined a series of piston cores from northern Lakes Michigan and Huron and found that the black bands are correlatable among cores taken from within the same basin. The observation that the banding can be correlated suggests a basin- wide cause| near- bottom or sub- bottom anoxia in the northern Michigan and northern Huron sediments during the mid- Holocene warm period. The sedimentary and geochemical processes in the Great Lakes during the middle Holocene warm interval are good indicators of possible future scenarios for the lakes as a result of global warming| as 21(st) - century temperatures are predicted to reach similar levels due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. 6165,2003,4,2,Strong carbon cycle feedbacks in a climate model with interactive CO2 and sulphate aerosols,[1] Carbon cycle feedbacks are a significant source of uncertainty in climate change projections| with the potential for strong positive feedbacks to accelerate the rate of anthropogenic global warming during the 21st century. A climate change experiment is presented which uses a General Circulation Model (GCM) in which both interactive carbon and sulphur cycles have been included for the first time| along with the natural climate forcings due to solar changes and volcanic aerosol. These extra climate forcing factors have a significant impact on both 20th century climate change and the contemporary land and ocean carbon sinks. The additional forcings act to delay by more than a decade the conversion of the land carbon sink to a source| but ultimately result in a more abrupt rate of CO2 increase with the land carbon source ( which reaches 7 GtC yr(-1) by 2100) exceeding the ocean carbon sink ( which saturates at 5 GtC yr(-1) by 2100) beyond about 2080. 6058,2003,2,4,Structure and function of peatland-forest ecotones in southeastern Alaska,High-latitude warming could cause northern peatlands to become C sources. Where peattands border boreal forests| strong differences in ecosystem C balances reflect drainage differences. Because local drainage conditions could be influenced by alterations in temperature and precipitation regimes| peatland-forest ecotones represent useful locations for monitoring potential impacts of global warming. We characterized the soils| hydrology| and forest structure along transects bracketing a peatland-forest ecotone in southeastern Alaska. We expected to find soil properties and processes at the peatland-forest edge that were intermediate between those from peatland and forest. Instead| we found that above- and belowground features of the ecotone did not coincide. Conifers grew on mineral soils| but also grew on Cryofibrists and Cryohemists| soils with high soil organic C (SOC) contents to 100 cm (57 kg m(-2)) that are significantly greater than the SOC contents of adjacent forested| non-Histosol pedons. Soil ;respiration rates (SRR) at peatland-forest edges (0.08 g CO(2)-C m(-2) h(-1))| by contrast| were threefold lower than forest rates and did not differ significantly from peatland rates. Respiration rates were strongly influenced by water table height. Peattand and edge water tables were both significantly shallower than forest water tables. Our conceptual model suggests that if additional forest expansion and warmer summers enhance drainage of these edge soils and stimulate SRR to forest-like levels| 23 kg C m(-2) could ultimately be mineralized from these extensive peatland-forest boundaries. Afforestation of peattand margins under this scenario could represent a transient positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO(2) levels. 5987,2003,2,4,Study on ground temperature change and characteristic response of engineering geology of permafrost along Qinghai-Tibet Railway,Along with the global warming in the recent scores of years| comparatively big changes have taken place in the weather and other environmental conditions of the permafrost area in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau| and very big changes have also occurred in the engineering geological conditions of the permafrost area. Based on a large volume of field survey data| this paper discusses the regularities of horizontal and vertical distribution of permafrost| with its focus of analysis on the temperature change characteristics of the soil in different frozen-soil zones| as well as presents simulation analysis and research for the engineering geologic characteristic response changes that would occur in the future when the temperature of the frozen soil in different zones rises by 1 and 2.6degreesC respectively| which will have a tremendous impact on the stability of constructional work. 2790,2003,2,4,Studying the impact of ocean eddies on the ecosystem of the Prince Edward Islands: DEIMEC II,THE Dynamics of Eddy Impacts on Marion's Ecosystem Study (DEIMEC) programme was begun in 2002 with the aim of understand the importance of the oceanic| upstream environment to the ecosystem of the Prince Edward Islands.(1) This island group consists of two small volcanic islands and provides many opportunities for studying ecological and evolutionary processes| for monitoring ecological changes in relation to global climate change and for conserving a unique component of the planet's biological diversity. 6149,2003,3,3,Substitution between floor constructions in wood and natural stone: comparison of energy consumption| greenhouse gas emissions| and costs over the life cycle,This paper compares two floor constructions used at the new airport outside Oslo| one made of solid oak and one made of natural stone| to (i) make an inventory of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the life cycle of the two constructions| (ii) calculate the differences regarding GHG emissions and cost| and (iii) determine which factors have the strongest influence on the results. Manufacturing the wood floor required 1.6 times more energy and produced one-third of the GHG emissions compared with the natural stone floor. Over the life cycle| net GHG emissions can be avoided only if the wood is used as a biofuel after the replacement or demolition of the floor. The wooden floor must be competitive on price to be a cost-efficient action against global warming. Per cubic metre of wood floor| emissions of up to 1.263 t of CO2 equivalents can be avoided by a substitution between the two floor constructions. The factors that have the most influence on the result are carbon fixation on forest land| waste handling of wood| and discount rate| the latter reflecting the relative importance over time given to a unit of GHG emissions. 2761,2003,2,4,Subtle recent distributional shifts in great plains bird species,Changes in geographic distributions of 5 bird species endemic to the Great Plains of North America were examined over the last few decades based on the United States Breeding Bird Survey. Examining the mean latitude of individuals of each species| 3 species showed significant or near-significant northward shifts| and 1 a significant shift southward. Over all 5 species examined| colonization events were concentrated in the northern part of the distributions of the species; in 3 species| extinctions were concentrated in the southern part of the distributions of the species. The conclusion is that significant distributional changes have taken place| but they have been subtle| and might be associated with global climate change. 5970,2003,2,3,Super-optimal temperatures are detrimental to peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) reproductive processes and yield at both ambient and elevated carbon dioxide,Continuing increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) will likely be accompanied by global warming. Our research objectives were (a) to determine the effects of season-long exposure to daytime maximum/nighttime minimum temperatures of 32/22| 36/26| 40/30 and 44/34degreesC at ambient (350 mumol mol(-1)) and elevated (700 mumol mol(-1)) CO2 on reproductive processes and yield of peanut| and (b) to evaluate whether the higher photosynthetic rates and vegetative growth at elevated CO2 will negate the detrimental effects of high temperature on reproductive processes and yield. Doubling of CO2 increased leaf photosynthesis and seed yield by 27% and 30%| respectively| averaged across all temperatures. There were no effects of elevated CO2 on pollen viability| seed-set| seed number per pod| seed size| harvest index or shelling percentage. At ambient CO2| seed yield decreased progressively by 14%| 59% and 90% as temperature increased from 32/22 to 36/26| 40/30 and 44/34degreesC| respectively. Similar percentage decreases in seed yield occurred at temperatures above 32/22degreesC at elevated CO2 despite greater photosynthesis and vegetative growth. Decreased seed yields at high temperature were a result of lower seed-set due to poor pollen viability| and smaller seed size due to decreased seed growth rates and decreased shelling percentages. Seed harvest index decreased from 0.41 to 0.05 as temperature increased from 32/22 to 44/34degreesC under both ambient and elevated CO2. We conclude that there are no beneficial interactions between elevated CO2 and temperature| and that seed yield of peanut will decrease under future warmer climates| particularly in regions where present temperatures are near or above optimum. 6167,2003,5,4,Supersequence and composite sequence carbonate platform growth: Permian and Triassic outcrop data of the Arabian platform and Neo-Tethys,Permian and Triassic carbonate platforms of the Arabian Peninsula (Gondwana) and seamounts of the Neo-Tethys (Hawasina and Batain basins) are characterized by distinctive supersequences (second order| duration 5-20 million years| my) and composite sequences (third order| duration 0.5-5 my). The presented sequence stratigraphic framework will be compared with existing sea level curves to discuss the validity of different regional oscillations during the dispersal of Pangea. The carbonate succession of the Haushi and Akhdar Groups of the Arabian platform is composed of four Permian (P1-P4) and four Triassic supersequences (Tr1-Tr4). Isolated platforms of the Hawasina and Batain basins comprise two Permian supersequences and one Triassic supersequence. In contrast to the continuous development of the Arabian shield| carbonate platform growth of the seamounts was restricted to the Guadalupian-Lopingian and to the Middle-Upper Triassic| and ceased after drowning events. Composite sequences exhibit a well-developed stacking pattern during the Guadalupian-Lopingian (Saiq Formation). Lowstand systems tracts (LSTs) occur during the Cisuralian (Gharif Formation| Haushi Group) and Triassic (Mahil Formation| Akhdar Group). Open-marine depositional environments prevail during transgressive systems tracts (TSTs) with diverse biota including rugose and scleractinian corals| chaetetids| bryozoans| and crinoids. Highstand system tracts (HSTs) exhibit a twofold pattern: During the transgressive phase of supersequences| composite sequence highstands are dominated by reef or level-bottom communities with corals. Cyclic platform deposits or monotonous mud- and wackestone accumulated during the turnaround or late second-order highstand of a supersequence. Correlation of maximum flooding surfaces with published data suggests that supersequences P1| P2| and Tr4 can be traced across the Arabian platform into the Neo-Tethys basins| while supersequences P3| P4| and Tr1-Tr3 resulted from local tectonic events at the margin of the Arabian platform (Hulw half-graben). The presented sea level curve corresponds therefore to the Tethyan sea level curve during the Cisuralian and Guadalupian| but differs significantly during the Lopingian| as a result of the dispersal of Pangea. The Middle and Upper Triassic sea level curve from Oman is again in good correlation with published data. The Permian and Triassic sequence architecture on the Arabian plate and adjacent Neo-Tethys was predominantly triggered by the global warming after the Permian-Carboniferous glaciation| the initial rifting of Neo-Tethys| and subordinately by eustatic sea level changes. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6108,2003,2,3,Surface wildfires in central Amazonia: short-term impact on forest structure and carbon loss,Changes in forest structure were examined 10-15 months after an unprecedented understorey wildfire burnt previously undisturbed primary forest in central Brazilian Amazonia| following the severe 1997-1998 El Nino dry season. On the basis of 20 0.25 ha plots (10 m x 250 m) in both burnt and unburnt forest| we found marked differences in the overall live biomass| canopy openness and understorey vegetation. On average| 36% of all trees equal to or greater than 10 cm DBH were found to be dead in the burnt forest| and there was also a near-complete mortality in all pre-burn saplings. Using an allometric equation to predict biomass mortality we estimate that the tree mortality rates found would commit an additional 25.5 t C/ha to be released from these BFs. The dramatic increase of aboveground dead biomass in BF is of major global concern because of the increased flux Of CO2 to the atmosphere| which has a role in enhancing the greenhouse effect and promoting climate change. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6133,2003,4,4,Surveillance of a simple linear regression,This article considers an important aspect of the general sequential analysis problem where a process is in control up to some unknown point i = v - 1| after which the distribution from which the observations are generated changes. An extensive sequential analytic literature assumes that the change in distribution is abrupt| for example| from N(0| 1) to N(mu| 1). There is also an extensive literature that deals with a gradual change in the case where the decision (whether or not a change has occurred) is based on a fixed set of observations| rather than an ongoing process of decision making every time a new observation is obtained. However| there is virtually no literature on the practical case of sequentially detecting a gradual change in distribution (visualize a machine deteriorating gradually). This article considers solutions to this problem. As a first approximation| the gradual change problem can be modeled as a change from a fixed distribution to a-model of simple linear regression with respect to time (i.e.| there is an abrupt change of slope| from a 0 to a nonzero slope). We study an extension of this case to a general context of sequential detection of a change in the slope of a simple linear regression. The residuals are assumed to be normally distributed. We consider both the case in which the baseline parameters are known and the case in which they are not. Finally| as an application| we monitor for an increase in the rate of global warming. 6022,2003,4,4,Temperature and precipitation scenarios for Norway: comparison of results from dynamical and empirical downscaling,A scenario from the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model ECHAM4/OPYC3 was downscaled by empirical and dynamical methods to show projected changes in temperature (T) and precipitation (R) in Norway under global warming. In the empirical models| large-scale T was applied as a predictor for T. For R| both T and sea-level pressure (SLP) were applied as predictors during most of the year| while only SLP was applied during summer. The dynamical model| HIRHAM| is a regional climate model based upon HIRLAM| but with physical parametrisations from ECHAM4/ OPYC3. Both approaches project from 1980-1999 to 2030-2049 an increase in annual mean temperatures of between 1 and 2.5degreesC in various parts of the country. The projected warming is at a minimum along the southern coast| while greater warming is projected inland and in the north. Though the differences between the approaches are not statistically significant| empirical downscaling systematically leads to a larger projected increase in annual mean temperature than dynamical downscaling does. The difference is at a maximum during winter and/or spring at localities exposed to temperature inversions. Empirical downscaling projects larger winter warming in inland valleys than at more freely exposed localities| and thus implies a reduced intensity or frequency of winter inversions. It is argued that less favourable conditions for ground inversions are consistent with the future projection of increased winter wind speeds and reduced snow-cover. For precipitation| both downscaling approaches project a statistically significant increase in the west during autumn| and in the south during winter. The only significant difference between the results is that dynamical downscaling projects increased summer precipitation in the southwest| while the empirically downscaled scenario shows no significant change. For summer precipitation the present empirical models do not include any predictor carrying the 'climate change signal'| and thus the results from the dynamical downscaling are probably more realistic concerning summer precipitation. 6245,2003,4,4,Temperature dependent high-resolution infrared photoabsorption cross-sections of trifluoromethyl sulphur pentafluoride,Absolute infrared photoabsorption cross-sections have been measured over the range 600-1500 cm(-1) for the powerful greenhouse gas SF(5)CF(3) at high resolution (0.03 cm(-1)) and at temperatures between 203 and 298 K. Our data indicate that the integrated absorption intensity shows a weak negative dependence on temperature. It is concluded therefore that previous calculations of radiative forcings and global warming potentials based on room-temperature data are reasonable estimates for the atmosphere| but may be low by a few percent. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 2812,2003,2,4,Temperature-based population segregation in birch,Mean temperature of establishment years for warm- and cold-year subpopulations of a naturally occurring stand of Betula pendula (birch) shows a difference equivalent to that between current temperatures and temperatures projected for 35-55 years hence| given 'business as usual.' The existence of 'pre-adapted' individuals in standing tree populations would reduce temperature-based advantages for invading species and| if general| bring into question assumptions currently used in models of global climate change. Our results demonstrate a methodology useful for investigating the important ecological issue of adaptation vs. range shifts as a means of response to climate change. 2718,2003,4,4,Temperature-dependent absorption cross-sections in the thermal infrared bands Of SF5CF3,Absorption cross-sections have been measured at five temperatures between 213 and 323 K in the infrared bands of SF5CF3. The spectra were recorded at a resolution of 0.112 cm(-1) using a commercial Fourier transform infrared spectrometer and a 20 cm temperature-controlled sample cell. Samples of SF5CF3 were pressurized with high-purity nitrogen to a total pressure of 1013.3 hPa (760 Torr). Six or more spectra with varying SF5CF3 column amounts were analyzed at each temperature. The full spectral range of the measurements was 520-6500 cm(-1)| with only weak bands observed beyond 1400 cm(-1). Absorption of thermal radiation in the 8-12 mum atmospheric window region being important for climate change| we report here the integrated cross-sections of the significant absorption bands in that spectral region. Our results closely match room temperature values reported previously. Only small variation of the integrated absorption cross-sections with temperature was found. Our results confirm the accuracy of the previous measurements| which find SF5CF3 important for global climate change on a per molecule basis. Absorption cross-sections derived from a single| near Doppler-limited spectrum recorded at room temperature do not show any rotational fine structure in the 700-950 cm(-1) region. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 6113,2003,2,4,Temperature-regulated bleaching and lysis of the coral Pocillopora damicornis by the novel pathogen Vibrio coralliilyticus,Coral bleaching is the disruption of symbioses between coral animals and their photosynthetic microalgal endosymbionts (zooxanthellae). It has been suggested that large-scale bleaching episodes are linked to global warming. The data presented here demonstrate that Vibrio coralliilyticus is an etiological agent of bleaching of the coral Pocillopora damicornis. This bacterium was present at high levels in bleached P. damicornis but absent from healthy corals. The bacterium was isolated in pure culture| characterized microbiologically| and shown to cause bleaching when it was inoculated onto healthy corals at 25degreesC. The pathogen was reisolated from the diseased tissues of the infected corals. The zooxanthella concentration in the bacterium-bleached corals was less than 12% of the zooxanthella concentration in healthy corals. When P. damicornis was infected with V. coralliidyticus at higher temperatures (27 and 29degreesC)| the corals lysed within 2 weeks| indicating that the seawater temperature is a critical environmental parameter in determining the outcome of infection. A large increase in the level of the extracellular protease activity of V. coralliilyticus occurred at the same temperature range (24 to 28degreesC) as the transition from bleaching to lysis of the corals. We suggest that bleaching of P. damicornis results from an attack on the algae| whereas bacterium-induced lysis and death are promoted by bacterial extracellular proteases. The data presented here support the bacterial hypothesis of coral bleaching. 2840,2003,4,4,Terrestrial vertebrates in Pennsylvania: Status and conservation in a changing landscape,In this paper| I review major historical conservation events| changes in landscape (cover types) patterns| and agency (state and federal) inventory and monitoring programs to help explain trends in terrestrial vertebrate populations in Pennsylvania. I then give recommendations for the long-term conservation of terrestrial vertebrates within the context of a future changing landscape in the Commonwealth. In Pennsylvania| the amount of forest has remained relatively constant since the 1970s| while the extent of early successional| grassland| and wetland/riparian habitats is declining. These trends| combined with direct human disturbance| degradation of water quality| and loss of critical habitat features have contributed to the endangered or threatened status of 31 vertebrate species in the state. Based on two major databases| the Pennsylvania Breeding Bird Survey and the Pennsylvania Breeding Bird Atlas| bird species occupying early successional| grassland| or wetland/riparian habitats| in particular| have generally shown negative trends in abundance and distribution| respectively. According to the Pennsylvania Gap Analysis Project| highest species richness or "hotspots" of mammals and birds are in areas with expanses of intact forest| as on public lands in the north central part of the state. The future conservation status of terrestrial vertebrates is contingent on several factors| ranging from wise stewardship of public and private lands to an understanding of the impacts of global climate change on vertebrate populations. Among the conservation recommendations are the need to improve connectivity among wildlands| understand the long-term impact of landscape changes on wildlife biodiversity| and develop databases on abundance and distributional trends of terrestrial vertebrate populations. 6311,2003,5,4,Terrestrial-oceanic environmental change in the southern Okhotsk sea during the Holocene,The Okhotsk Sea plays a significant role in climatic and oceanic environmental change on regional and global scales. The fluctuation in pollen and spores abundances was investigated in order to reconstruct terrestrial and ocean environmental change during the Holocene. Fluctuation of the total abundance and assemblage of most of pollen and spores reflects terrestrial environmental change along the coastal area of the southern Okhotsk Sea. On the other hand| the abundance of Cryptomeria| Cyclobalanopsis and Castanopsis pollen from plants which are not currently growing in Hokkaido| is suggested to be a good proxy for the intensity of the Tsushima Current. Relatively warm pollen assemblages characterize Periods 1 (calendar age 7240-3050 yr BP) and 3 (150-0 yr BP) while a relatively cold pollen assemblage characterizes Period 2 (3050-150 yr BP). Three warm sub-periods 1a (7240-6500 yr BP)| 1c (5900-4550 yr BP) and 1e (4300-3550 yr BP) are associated with relatively strong intensity of the Tsushima Current| transgression| and the occurrence of bivalves living in warm conditions. Continuous cooling started 3000 yr BP. The area remained so cold that the intensified Tsushima Current (2800-2400 and 1700-1400 yr BP) would have made little difference to terrestrial warming in the southern Okhotsk Sea. In the uppermost samples| a large increase in total abundance of pollen and spores may be partly attributed to the modern global warming effect. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 6136,2003,4,4,The advanced very high resolution radiometer Pathfinder Atmosphere (PATMOS) climate dataset - A resource for climate research,As part of the joint National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Pathfinder program| the NOAA National Environmental Satellite| Data| and Information Service (NESDIS) has created a research-quality global atmospheric dataset through the reprocessing of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations since 1981. The AVHRR is an imaging radiometer that flies on NOAA polar-orbiting operational environmental satellites (POES) measuring radiation reflected and emitted by the earth in five spectral channels. Raw AVHRR observations were recalibrated using a vicarious calibration technique for the reflectance channels and an appropriate treatment of the nonlinearity of the infrared channels. The observations are analyzed in the Pathfinder Atmosphere (PATMOS) project to obtain statistics of channel radiances| cloud amount| top of the atmosphere radiation budget| and aerosol optical thickness over ocean. The radiances and radiation budget components are determined for clear-sky and all-sky conditions. The output products are generated on a quasi-equal-area grid with an approximate I 10 kin x 110 kin spatial resolution and twice-a-day temporal resolution| and averaged over 5-day (pentad) and monthly time periods. PATMOS data span the period from September 1981 through June 2001. Analyses show that the PATMOS data in their current archived form are sufficiently accurate for studies of the interaction of clouds and aerosol with solar and terrestrial radiation| and of climatic phenomena with large signals (e.g.| the annual cycle| monsoons| ENSOs| or major volcanic eruptions). Global maps of the annual average of selected products are displayed to illustrate the capability of the dataset to depict the climatological fields and the spatial detail and relationships between the fields| further demonstrating how PATMOS is a unique resource for climate studies. Smaller climate signals| such as those associated with global warming| may be more difficult to detect due to the presence of artifacts in the time series of the products. Principally| these are caused by the drift of each satellite's observation time over its mission. A statistical method| which removes most of these artifacts| is briefly discussed. Quality of the products is assessed by comparing the adjusted monthly mean time series for each product with those derived from independent satellite observations. The PATMOS dataset for the monthly means is accessible at www.saa.noaa.gov/. 6068,2003,4,3,The change of North China climate in transient simulations using the IPCCSRES A2 and B2 scenarios with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model,This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases| namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios| to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. In the last three decades of the 21st century| the global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast| and hence| causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation to be strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increases significantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward to North China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition| the North China precipitation would increase significantly in September. In July| August| and September| the interannual variability of the precipitation enlarges evidently over North China| implying a risk of flooding in the future. 2733,2003,2,4,The changing character of precipitation,From a societal| weather| and climate perspective| precipitation intensity| duration| frequency| and phase are as much of concern as total amounts| as these factors determine the disposition of precipitation once it hits the ground and how much runs off. At the extremes of precipitation incidence are the events that give rise to floods and droughts| whose changes in occurrence and severity have an enormous impact on the environment and society. Hence| advancing understanding and the ability to model and predict the character of precipitation is vital but requires new approaches to examining data and models. Various mechanisms| storms and so forth| exist to bring about precipitation. Because the rate of precipitation| conditional on when it falls| greatly exceeds the rate of replenishment of moisture by surface evaporation| most precipitation comes from moisture already in the atmosphere at the time the storm begins| and transport of moisture by the storm-scale circulation into the storm is vital. Hence| the intensity of precipitation depends on available moisture| especially for heavy events. As climate warms| the amount of moisture in the atmosphere| which is governed by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation| is expected to rise much faster than the total precipitation amount| which is governed by the surface heat budget through evaporation. This implies that the main changes to be experienced are in the character of precipitation: increases in intensity must be offset by decreases in duration or frequency of events. The timing| duration| and intensity of precipitation can be systematically explored via the diurnal cycle| whose correct simulation in models remains an unsolved challenge of vital importance in global climate change. Typical problems include the premature initiation of convection| and precipitation events that are too light and too frequent. These challenges in observations| modeling| and understanding precipitation changes are being taken up in the NCAR "Water Cycle Across Scales" initiative| which will exploit the diurnal cycle as a test bed for a hierarchy of models to promote improvements in models. 2769,2003,5,4,The closing of a seaway: ocean water masses and global climate change,The Late Neogene witnessed various major paleoceanographic changes that culminated in intense Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG). The cause and effects of these changes are still debated. We use a multiproxy approach to determine the relative timing of the closure of the Panama gateway| changes in Atlantic circulation| global cooling and ice sheet growth. Benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca records from a Pacific and an Atlantic Site have been produced and are interpreted in terms of bottom water temperatures. These Mg-temperature records are combined with published benthic delta(13)C| delta(18)O and erosion records to reconstruct the flow of proto-North Atlantic Deep Water (proto-NADW) over the past 12 Ma. The results suggest that between 12.5 and 10.5 Ma| and again between about 8.5 and 6 Ma a nutrient-depleted water mass that was colder (by 1-2degreesC) and fresher than the intervening deep water mass filled the Atlantic basin. This proto-NADW became warmer (by similar to1degreesC) and saltier between 6 and 5 Ma| coincident with the restriction of surface water flow through the Central American Seaway. The Mg-temperature records define a subsequent global cooling trend of similar to3.5degreesC between 5 Ma and today. Early NHG in the late Miocene was perhaps related to the formation of the relatively cold| fresh proto-NADW. The formation of the warmer and saltier proto-NADW in the early Pliocene may have initially limited Northern Hemisphere ice growth. However| the increased moisture released at high northern latitudes associated with formation of 'warm' proto-NADW| coupled with the global temperature decrease of deep (and hence polar surface) waters| likely helped initiate the intense NHG of the Plio-Pleistocene. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6183,2003,4,3,The deep-ocean heat uptake in transient climate change,The deep-ocean heat uptake (DOHU) in transient climate changes is studied using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and its adjoint. The model configuration consists of idealized Pacific and Atlantic basins. The model is forced with the anomalies of surface heat and freshwater fluxes from a global warming scenario with a coupled model using the same ocean configuration. In the global warming scenario| CO2 concentration increases 1% yr(-1). The heat uptake calculated from the coupled model and from the adjoint are virtually identical| showing that the heat uptake by the OGCM is a linear process. After 70 yr the ocean heat uptake is almost evenly distributed within the layers above 200 m| between 200 and 700 m| and below 700 m (about 20x10(-2) J in each). The effect of anomalous surface freshwater flux on the DOHU is negligible. Analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-2) data for the same global warming scenario shows that qualitatively similar results apply to coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs. The penetration of surface heat flux to the deep ocean in the OGCM occurs mainly in the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean| since both the sensitivity of DOHU to the surface heat flux and the magnitude of anomalous surface heat flux are large in these two regions. The DOHU relies on the reduction of convection and Gent-McWilliams-Redi mixing in the North Atlantic| and the reduction of Gent-McWilliams-Redi mixing in the Southern Ocean. 2754,2003,2,4,The disproportionate effect of global warming on the arrival dates of short-distance migratory birds in North America,Recent studies have shown that| in response to global climate change| diverse avian taxa are now nesting measurably earlier (< 10 days) in both the United States and Britain. Similarly| several studies on European birds have now demonstrated that a variety of species (although not all) are arriving increasingly early. However| surprisingly| widespread changes in North American migrant phenology have not been demonstrated. It is hypothesized that short-distance migrants (birds that winter in the southern United States) may be quicker to adapt to climate change than long-distance migrants (birds that winter south of the United States)| as short-distance migrants can respond to meteorological cues indicating weather conditions to the north whereas long-distance migrants must rely on photoperiod. This study examined the first arrival dates of 103 migrant birds in New York and Massachusetts and found that| on average| all migrants arrived significantly earlier during the period 1951-1993 than the period 1903-1950. From 1951-1993 birds wintering in the southern United States arrived on average 13 days earlier while birds wintering in South America arrived 4 days earlier. Although a change in observer effort cannot be quantified and may be a source of bias| a comparison of the numbers of reporting observers during the 1930s and the 1980s revealed no significant difference. These results are consistent with those expected under a scenario of global warming. 5998,2003,2,4,The effect of acute changes in temperature and light on the aerobic metabolism of embryos and yolk-sac larvae of turbot (Scophthalmus maximus),The effect of acute changes of temperature and light on the rates of oxygen consumption and ammonia excretion of developing embryos and yolk-sac larvae of turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) reared at 15degreesC were studied. Short-term temperature adjustments of +/-2degreesC gave a mean Q(10) of 2.6 for the rate of oxygen consumption. Neither the presence nor the absence of light significantly influenced this response to acute temperature changes| despite light causing a significantly higher rate of oxygen consumption in the yolk-sac larvae between 9 and 12 days after fertilisation. This elevated metabolic rate in the presence of light occurred after pigmentation of the eyes and was probably due to activity associated with food-searching behaviour of this visual feeder. Similarly| for most development| the presence or absence of light and acute temperature adjustments did not cause any significant shift in the relative fraction of amino acids catabolised at 15degreesC. However| on day 10 after fertilisation when peak rates of oxygen consumption occurred in the yolk-sac larvae exposed to light| the significantly elevated apparent nitrogen quotients indicated that greater amounts of amino acids were utilised for catabolic substrate oxidation. 6112,2003,2,4,The effect of climate change on global potato production,The effect of climate change on global potato production was assessed. Potential yields were calculated with a simulation model and a grid with monthly climate data for current (1961-1990) and projected (2010-2039 and 2040-2069) conditions. The results were mapped and summarized for countries. Between 1961-1990 and 20402069 the global (terrestrial excluding Antarctica) average temperature is predicted to increase between 2.1 and 3.2 C| depending on the climate scenario. The temperature increase is smaller when changes are weighted by the potato area and particularly when adaptation of planting time and cultivars is considered (a predicted temperature increase between 1 and 1.4 C). For this period| global potential potato yield decreases by 18% to 32% (without adaptation) and by 9% to 18% (with adaptation). At high latitudes| global warming will likely lead to changes in the time of planting| the use of later-maturing cultivars| and a shift of the location of potato production. In many of these regions| changes in potato yield are likely to be relatively small| and sometimes positive. Shifting planting time or location is less feasible at lower latitudes| and in these regions global warming could have a strong negative effect on potato production. It is shown that heat-tolerant potato cultivars could be used to mitigate effects of global warming in (sub)tropical regions. 6220,2003,5,4,The effect of Holocene temperature fluctuations on the evolution and ecology of Neotoma (woodrats) in Idaho and northwestern Utah,Animals respond to climatic change by adapting or by altering distributional patterns. How an animal responds is influenced by where it is positioned within its geographic range; the probability of extirpation is increased near range boundaries. Here| we examine the impact of Holocene climatic fluctuations on a small mammalian herbivore| the bushy-tailed woodrat (Neotoma cinerea)| at five locations within south central Idaho and northwestern Utah. Previous work demonstrated that woodrats adapt to temperature shifts by altering body size. We focus here on the relationship between body mass| temperature| and location within the geographic range. Body mass is estimated by measuring fossil fecal pellets| a technique validated in earlier work. Overall| we find the predicted phenotypic response to climate change: animals were larger during cold periods| and smaller during warmer episodes. However| we also identify several time periods when changes in environmental temperature exceeded the adaptive flexibility of N. cinerea. A smaller-bodied species| the desert woodrat (N. lepida) apparently invaded lower elevation sites during the mid-Holocene| despite being behaviorally and physically subordinate to N. cinerea. Analysis of contemporary patterns of body size and thermal tolerances for both woodrat species suggests this was because of the greater heat tolerance of N. lepida. The robust spatial relationship between contemporary body size and ambient temperature is used as a proxy to reconstruct local climate during the Holocene. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved. 2745,2003,4,4,The European Phenology Network,The analysis of changes in the timing of life cycle-events of organisms (phenology) has been able to contribute significantly to the assessment of potential impacts of climate change on ecology. These phenological responses of species to changes in climate are likely to have significant relevance for socio-economic issues such as agriculture| forestry and human health and have proven able to play a role in raising environmental awareness and education on climate change. This paper presents the European Phenology Network (EPN)| which aims to increase the efficiency| added value and use of phenological monitoring and research| and to promote the practical use of phenological data in assessing the impact of global (climate) change and possible adaptation measures. The paper demonstrates that many disciplines have to deal with changes in the timing of life-cycle events in response to climate change and that many different user groups are involved. Furthermore| it shows how EPN addresses issues such as (1) raising public awareness and education| (2) the integration and co-operation of existing observing systems| (3) integration and access to phenological information and (4) communication. 2783,2003,4,4,The Gaia hypothesis: Conjectures and refutations,The uncertainties surrounding global climate change provide ample evidence| if any were necessary| of the need for a whole-system view of the Earth. Arguably the most visible - and controversial - attempt to understand Earth as a system has been Lovelock's Gaia theory. Gaia has been a fruitful hypothesis generator| and has prompted many intriguing conjectures about how biological processes might contribute to planetary-scale regulation of atmospheric chemistry and climate. In many important cases| however| these conjectures are refuted by the available data. For example| Gaia theory predicts that the composition of the atmosphere should be tightly regulated by biological processes| but rates of carbon uptake into the biosphere have accelerated by only about 2% in response to the 35% rise in atmospheric CO2 since pre-industrial times. Gaia theory would predict that atmospheric CO2 should be more sensitively regulated by terrestrial ecosystem uptake (which is biologically mediated) than by ocean uptake (which is primarily abiotic)| but both processes are about equally insensitive to atmospheric CO2 levels. Gaia theory predicts that biological feedbacks should make the Earth system less sensitive to perturbation| but the best available data suggest that the net effect of biologically mediated feedbacks will be to amplify| not reduce| the Earth system's sensitivity to anthropogenic climate change. Gaia theory predicts that biological by-products in the atmosphere should act as planetary climate regulators| but the Vostok ice core indicates that CO2| CH4| and dimethyl sulfide - all biological by-products - function to make the Earth warmer when it is warm| and colder when it is cold. Gaia theory predicts that biological feedbacks should regulate Earth's climate over the long term| but peaks in paleotemperature correspond to peaks in paleo-CO2 in records stretching back to the Permian; thus if CO2 is biologically regulated as part of a global thermostat| that thermostat has been hooked up backwards for at least the past 300 million years. Gaia theory predicts that organisms alter their environment to their own benefit| but throughout most of the surface ocean (comprising more than half of the globe)| nutrient depletion by plankton has almost created a biological desert| and is kept in check only by the nutrient starvation of the plankton themselves. Lastly| where organisms enhance their environment for themselves| they create positive feedback; thus Gaia theory's two central principles - first| that organisms stabilize their environment| and second| that organisms alter their environment in ways that benefit them - are mutually inconsistent with one another. These examples suggest that the further development of Gaia theory will require more deliberate comparison of theory and data. 6239,2003,2,4,The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions| 1975-1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data,In assessing and forecasting the impact of population change on carbon dioxide emissions| most previous studies have assumed a unitary elasticity of emissions with respect to population change| i.e. that a 1% increase in population results in a 1% increase in emissions. This study finds that global population change over the last two decades is more than proportionally associated with growth in carbon dioxide emissions| and that the impact of population change on emissions is much more pronounced in developing countries than in developed countries. The empirical findings are based on a data for 93 countries over the period 1975-1996. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6150,2003,3,3,The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy,Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet| those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming| and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty| and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual| continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies| with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 5985,2003,3,2,The importance of expressly examining global warming policy issues through an ethical prism,A vast scientific and economic literature on global warming has emerged in the last two decades. Surprisingly| however| there has been little written on the ethical dimensions of human-induced climate change despite the numerous| obvious| and profoundly important ethical questions raised by human activities that are now clearly threatening human health| the environment| and many things humans value greatly. This paper argues that ethical analysis of global warming issues is practically imperative for two reasons. First| unless ethical is made analysis is made of global warming issues| ethically dubious decisions about global warming will be made because many of the most important ethical considerations are hidden in what appear to be ethically neutral scientific and economic arguments about global warming policy options. Secondly| unless issues of ethics| justice and equity are expressly dealt with| urgently needed global solutions to global warming will not likely be adopted by many nations. That is| an ethical focus on global warming matters is the key to achieve a globally acceptable solution and to harness political support for action. The paper concludes with a recommendation on how institutions and nations should go about implementing express examination of the ethical dimensions of global warming questions. The paper argues for express identification of ethical issues often hidden in scientific and economic analyses of global warming policy options. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6135,2003,2,3,The interactive effects of elevated CO2| temperature and N supply on N concentration and allocation in rice (Oryza sativa L.),The study was conducted to examine the effects of elevated CO2| temperature and nitrogen supply on the N concentration| content and allocation| biomass and root:shoot ratios in rice plants. Rice (Oryza sativa L. cv. IR 72) was grown in growth chambers under combinations of two CO2 (375 and 750 mL L-1)| temperature (29/21 and 34/26 C day/night) and N (40 and 80 mg L-1) regimes from sowing until grain maturity. The total nitrogen concentrations were significantly lower in CO2-enriched plants in both temperature regimes at all harvests except at flowering. The total plant N content was significantly higher under elevated CO2 in both temperature and N treatments during the vegetative stage with greater CO2 effect at high temperature treatment. Plants supplemented with high N had significantly higher total plant N concentrations and contents in all CO2 and temperature treatments. The allocation of N to the leaves was significantly lower at elevated CO2 and at ambient temperature at all harvests. CO2 effect was more pronounced at ambient temperature at grain maturity. Elevated CO2 significantly enhanced the allocation of N to the culms under a high N supply at flowering and grain maturity| and to the roots under a low N supply and ambient temperature treatments at all harvests except at 27 days after sowing. The allocation of N to the panicles was significantly reduced under high N supply. CO2-enriched plants grown at high temperature had significantly reduced N allocation to the grains. The enhancement of total biomass by elevated CO2 was greater at high temperature and N. Root:shoot ratios increased under CO2 enrichment with greater effects at ambient temperature and low N. IR 72 may exhibit an efficient uptake and utilization of N during early vegetative stage under global warming condition. 2767,2003,5,4,The Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition (LGIT) in south Westland| New Zealand: paleoecological insight into mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere climate change,High resolution pollen stratigraphy from three peat cores located within 20 km of Lateglacial moraines in south Westland| New Zealand provide detailed records of climate change during the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition (LGIT). The pollen record shows the replacement of grassland by shrubland prior to ca 15|300 C-14 yr BP (18|300 cal. yr BP) followed by the progressive development of broadleaf shrubland and scattered forest prior to ca 12|000 C-14 yr BP (14|400 cal. yr BP). Local vegetation changes around the time of the Younger Dryas chronozone (11-10ka C-14 BP) are evident| but are not necessarily a result of regional climate cooling. Vegetation changes between ca 12|000 and 10|000 C-14 yr BP (14|400 and 11|400 cal. yr BP) indicate a period of increased precipitation. Tall podocarp forest| similar to that of the contemporary forest| was well established by ca 10|000 C-14 yr BP (11|400 cal. yr BP). A period of increased westerly circulation over southern New Zealand is considered to be the most likely mechanism for causing the increased precipitation between ca 12|000 and 10|000 C-14 yr BP (14|300 and 11|400 cal. yr BP). Increased precipitation would also provide a mechanism for initiating LGIT ice advance in the area. Data from these records show some support for global climate change models that propose inter-hemispheric linkage| but may be more supportive of a climate change model that incorporates an increased westerly circulation over southern New Zealand during the LGIT. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6151,2003,2,4,The limits to biogeographical distributions: insights from the northward range extension of the marine snail| Kelletia kelletii (Forbes| 1852),Aim The development of accurate models predicting species range shifts in response to climate change requires studies on the population biology of species whose distributional limits are in the process of shifting. We examine the population biology of an example system using the recent northward range expansion of the marine neogastropod Kelletia kelletii (Forbes| 1852). Location This is a marine coastal shelf neogastropod species whose range extends from Isla Asuncion (Baja California| Mexico) to Monterey (CA| USA). Research sites spanned the extent of the range. Methods We examine abundance distributions and size frequency distributions of K. kelletii for evidence of factors determining historic and contemporary distributional patterns. Population studies were supplemented by historic and contemporary hydrographic data| including seawater temperature data from California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI ) and National Data Buoy Center (NDBC)| and seawater circulation data. Results The structure of recently established populations varied dramatically from that of historic populations. Markedly low densities and irregular size frequency distributions characterized recently established populations and suggested only occasionally successful recruitment. The point of transition between historic and recently established populations also corresponded to the location of a gradient in seawater temperature and the confluence of two major oceanic currents. The accumulated data suggest that temperature and/or barriers to dispersal could have set both contemporary patterns in population structure as well as the former northern range limit. Main conclusion Early life stages play a critical role in determining distributional patterns of K. kelletii . Dispersal barriers and temperature limitation are two plausible mechanisms that could determine both contemporary and historic distributional patterns. Future studies on this species should attempt to tease apart the relative importance of these factors in maintaining the populations at the northern edge of the range. 2738,2003,2,3,The possible response of life zones in China under global climate change,The response of natural vegetation to climate change is of global concern. In this research| an aggregated Holdridge Life Zone System was used to study the possible response of life zones in China under doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration with the input climatic parameters at 0.5 x 0.5degrees resolution of longitude and latitude from NCAR regional climate model 2 (RegCM2) coupled with the CSIRO global climate model. The results indicate that the latitudinal distribution of life zones would become irregular because of the complicated climate change. In particular| new life zones| such as subtropical desert (SD)| tropical desert (TDE) and tropical thorn woodland (TTW)| would appear. Subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest (SEBF)| tropical rainforest and monsoon forest (TRIF)| SD| TDE and TTW zones would appear in the northeastern China. Cool-temperate mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest (CMC) and warm-temperate deciduous broadleaved forest (WDBF) zones would appear at latitudes 25-35degreesN. The temperate desert (TD) in the western China would become Tibetan high-cold plateau (THP)| SEBF| WDBF and temperate steppe (TS)| and a large part of THP would be replaced by TRF| TDE| SEBF| TS and TTW. The relative area (distribution area/total terrestrial area) of CMC| TRF| TDE and TTW zone would increase about 3%| 21%| 3% and 6%| respectively. However| the relative area of SEBF| TS| TD and THP would decrease about 5%| 3%| 19% and 4%| respectively. In all| the relative area of forests (CCF| CMC| WDBF| SEBF| TRF) would increase about 15%| but the relative area of desert (TD| SD| TIDE| and TTW) and THP would decrease about 9% and 4%| respectively. Therefore| responses of different life zones in China to climate change would be dramatic| and nationwide corridors should be considered for the conservation of migrating species under climate change. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6114,2003,2,4,The relationship of long term global temperature change and human fertility,According to the United Nations| global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earth's surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis| we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994. A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general| birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time| this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (p < 0.05). Conclusions. The results of our analyses are consistent with the underlying premise that temperature change affects fertility and suggests that human fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6148,2003,3,2,The role of CO2 capture and sequestration in mitigation of climate change.,The role of CO2 capture and sequestration in mitigation of climate change. Increasing atmospheric level of greenhouse gases are causing global warming and putting at risk the global climate system. The main anthropogenic greenhouse gas is CO2. Technical solutions exist to reduce CO2 emission and stabilise atmospheric CO2 concentration| including energy saving and energy efficiency| switch to lower carbon content fuels like natural gas and to energy sources that operate with zero CO2 emissions such as renewable or nuclear energy| enhance the natural sinks for CO2 (forests| soils| etc.)| and last but not least| sequester CO2 from fossil fuels combustion. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the technology and cost for capture and storage Of CO2. Some of the factors that will influence application| including environmental impact| cost and efficiency| are also discussed. Capturing CO2 and storing it in underground geological reservoirs appears as the best environmentally acceptable option. It can be done with existing technology; however| substantial R&D is needed to improve available technology and to lower the cost. Applicable to large CO2 emitting industrial facilities such as power plants| cement factories| steel industry| etc.| which amount to more than 30% of the global anthropogenic CO2 emission| it represents a valuable tool in the battle against global warming. (C) 2003 Academie des sciences. Publie par Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. 6065,2003,4,4,The science of climate change,Central to the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) third assessment report| released in Shanghai in January 2001| was the statement: "There is now new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities." This represents a significant strengthening of the analogous statement issued by the IPCC in 1996: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" In this article the scientific evidence leading up to these IPCC statements is reviewed. A historical perspective of the Earths climate over the last 400|000 years is presented| as is the science of global warming over the last 200 years. The range of projections of climate change over the next century is also summarized giving particular emphasis to projections concerning Canada. The issue of uncertainty in climate change projections is tackled and the public confusion arising from the media portrayal of the science and its entry into the political arena discussed. Finally| The Kyoto Protocol and how it fits within the framework of necessary actions required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is reviewed. 6050,2003,2,2,The sensitivity of the present-day Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to freshwater forcing,Mounting evidence indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was strongly reduced during cold climate episodes in the past| possible due to freshwater influx from glacial melting. It is also expected that the freshwater input to high northern latitudes will increase as human-induced global warming continues| with potential impacts on the AMOC. Here we present results from a 150 years sensitivity experiment with the Bergen Climate Model (BCM) for the present-day climate| but with enhanced runoff from the Arctic region throughout the integration. The AMOC drops by 30% over the first 50 years| followed by a gradual recovery. The simulated response indicates that the present-day AMOC might be robust to the isolated effect of enhanced| high-latitude freshwater forcing on a centennial time scale| and that the western tropical North Atlantic may provide key information about the long-term variability| and by that monitoring| of the AMOC. 5975,2003,3,3,The setting of standards for agricultural nitrogen emissions: a case study of the Delphi technique,The Delphi technique is a means of aggregating the judgement of a panel of experts in order to improve the quality of decision-making. This paper provides a case study of the. technique by undertaking a three-round Delphi study to determine a package of best available techniques to reduce nitrogen emissions from a poultry unit under the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Directive (IPPC). Forms of nitrogen addressed included ammonia (NH3)| nitrous oxide (N2O) nitrogen oxides (NOx)| dusts and nitrate (NO3-)| with the study providing a means to prioritise the pollution concerns on different spatial scales. The priority pollutant issues were the contribution of NH3 to eutrophication| the global cooling effect of NH4+| aerosol| the role of NH4+ as a vector for atmospheric transport of NOx and SO2| the contribution of N2O to global warming| and NO3- leaching. Reduced nitrogen (NHx) was rated as a priority on all scales| while N2O and NO3- were rated as priorities only on global and local scales| respectively. The study indicated the need for abatement techniques at each stage of poultry rearing and waste management| with particular attention to reduce NH3 emissions| reflecting the priority pollutant concerns. Measures identified by the panel include maintenance of dry litter| low emission removal of litter from housing and storage of litter under cover. Once the litter has left the farm| this should either be used as a biofuel for electricity generation or rapidly incorporated into agricultural soils. The amounts and timing of manure application should be tuned to crop needs. Uncertainties in the Delphi technique limit it's suitability as a stand-alone decision making tool. However| the Delphi technique proved useful in identifying priority pollutant issues| areas of agreement| disagreement and where information is lacking. This demonstrates its use when dealing with the complex issues of prioritising pollution issues and abatement approaches. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2808,2003,4,4,The upper end of the U37K ' temperature calibration revisited,[1] Being able to decipher paleo sea surface temperatures for warm oceanic waters is of the utmost importance to further evaluate the role of the tropics in global climate change. The U-37(K)' index is one of such paleothermometers| although the warm range of temperatures often poses serious analytical challenges. This paper discusses and reviews several important aspects of the U-37(K) index calibration for waters warmer than 26degrees-27degreesC. Amongst them| insights into the possible existence of a limit above which the U-37(K) index is not able to accurately record temperature variations are presented. Some warnings are also given on the misleading practice and expected consequences of reporting U-37(K) index values of unity in the cases when abundances of the minor triunsaturated alkenone below detection limit are encountered. Future directions toward an improved knowledge of the behaviour of the U-37(K) calibration for warm waters are suggested. 2825,2003,4,4,The use of CPR data in fisheries research,The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey was initiated partly to contribute to our understanding of the variability of fish stocks and as a potential method for predicting fish distributions from the abundance and composition of the plankton. The latter objective has been superseded by technological developments in fish detection| but the former has been the subject of continuing| and in recent years expanding use of the CPR data. Examples are presented of application of the data to studies on North Sea herring| cod| mackerel| blue whiting and redfish as well as more general plankton studies relevant to fisheries research. Variations in the migration patterns of herring as well as recruitment have been related to abundances and species composition of the plankton in the CPR survey. Extensive use has been made of the CPR data in relation to cod| particularly in the development and testing of the 'match-mismatch' hypothesis. Advection of sufficient numbers of Calanus from the core oceanic areas of its distribution into the areas where the cod stocks occur may partly determine the success of those stocks. The analysis of the distribution and abundances of mackerel larvae in the CPR survey have shown contrasting variations between the North Sea and Celtic Sea. The expansion of the horse mackerel fishery in the north-eastern North Sea since 1987 has been related to physical events and a 'regime shift' in the plankton| described from CPR data. The oceanic spawning areas of the blue whiting and redfish were highlighted by the expansion of the CPR survey into the north-eastern and north-western Atlantic respectively. These results helped to focus the attention of fisheries scientists on stocks that have subsequently become the targets for commercial exploitation. The results of the CPR survey| particularly those on Calanus finmarchicus| the phytoplankton standing stock as measured by the CPR colour index| the overall patterns of trends in plankton abundance and distributions of indicator species have been used by fisheries scientists to interpret variations in fish stocks. Generally the CPR data can be used to determine whether changes in the distributions and growth rates of fish have resulted from changes in planktonic food| changes in strength of ocean currents and distribution of water masses and to identify trends in larval abundances. With the tightening regulation of fisheries to reduce overfishing| global climate change and changing anthropogenic inputs into the sea| the unique source of information on unexploited populations in the long-term time series of the CPR survey will be of increasing value to fisheries scientists in the study of natural variability. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 6125,2003,2,4,Thermal physiology of the common eelpout (Zoarces viviparus),We investigated the temperature dependence of some physiological parameters of common eelpout (Zoarces viviparus) from different locations (North Sea| Baltic Sea and Norwegian Sea) on acclimation temperature (3 degreesC and 12 degreesC) and acute temperature variation. The lethal limit of 12 degreesC-acclimated eelpout was determined as the critical thermal maximum [loss of equilibrium (LE) and onset of muscular spasms (OS)] and it was found to be 26.6 degreesC for LE and 28.8 degreesC for OS for all populations. However| these parameters do not have any relevant ecological interpretation. We therefore investigated the effect of gradually increased water temperature on standard metabolic rate (measured as resting oxygen consumption Mo-2) and critical oxygen concentration ([O-2](c)) of eelpouts. Acclimation to low temperature (3 degreesC) resulted in partial compensation of Mo-2| paralleled by a decrease of activation energy for Mo-2 (from 82 kJ mol(-1) at 12 degreesC to about 50 kJ mol(-1) at 3 degreesC) in North Sea and Baltic Sea eelpouts. At the same time| Norwegian eelpout showed no acclimation of oxygen demand to warm temperature (12 degreesC) at all. The scope for eelpout aerobic metabolism shrank considerably with increased acclimation temperature| as [O-2](c) approached water oxygen concentrations. At 22.5+/-1 degreesC the [O-2](c) reached air saturation| which is equivalent to the upper critical temperature (Tc-II) and at this temperature the aerobic scope for the metabolism completely disappeared. In line with previous insight| the comparative analysis of the temperature dependence of Mo-2 of Z. viviparus from different populations suggests that a pejus (sub-critical) temperature for this species is about 13-15 degreesC. In conclusion| the capacity to adjust aerobic metabolism relates to thermal tolerance and the bio-geographical distribution of the species. Global warming would thus be likely to cause a shift in the distribution of this species to the North. 6061,2003,4,5,Thermal pollution causes global warming,Over longer time-scales there is no net heat inflow to Earth since incoming solar energy is re-emitted at exactly the same rate. To maintain Earth's thermal equilibrium| however| there must be a net outflow equal to the geothermal heat flow. Performed calculations show that the net heat outflow in 1880 was equal to the geothermal heat flow| which is the only natural net heat source on Earth. Since then| heat dissipation from the global use of nonrenewable energy sources has resulted in additional net heating. In| e.g. Sweden| which is a sparsely populated country| this net heating is about three times greater than the geothermal heat flow. Such thermal pollution contributes to global warming until the global temperature has reached a level where this heat is also emitted to space. Heat dissipation from the global use of fossil fuels and nuclear power is the main source of thermal pollution. Here| it was found that one third of current thermal pollution is emitted to space and that a further global temperature increase of 1.8 degreesC is required until Earth is again in thermal equilibrium. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6266,2003,3,3,Thermal study of decomposition of selected biomass samples,Fears of climate change and increasing concern over the global warming have prompted a search for new| cleaner methods for electricity power generation. Technologies based on utilising biomass are attracting much attention because biomass is considered to be CO2 neutral. Co-firing of biomass fuels with coal| for example| is presently being considered as a mean for reducing the global CO2 emissions. Biomass is also applied in thermal conversion processes to produce fuels with higher calorific values and adsorbents. In any case| thermal decomposition is essential stage where volatiles and tars are evolved followed by consequent heats of reactions. In this work sawdust biomass samples were selected in order to study their thermal conversion behaviour. Heats of decomposition for each sample were measured during continuous heating at a prescribed heating rate under inert atmospheric conditions. The decomposition generally commenced in all samples at 150 degreesC and was completed at 460 degreesC in a series of endo and exothermic reactions influenced by its lignin and cellulosic content. Single biomass sample was subjected to heating rates ranging from 10 to 1000 degreesC min(-1) and the effect of heating rate on decomposition was studied. The origin of reactions for each thermal sequence is herein discussed in detail. 6281,2003,3,4,THIXOMAG (TM)| a competitive industrial thixocasting process for magnesium alloys with semi-solid feedstock billets,The most familiar route to produce feedstock billets for aluminum thixocasting is by magnetohydrodynamic (MHD). This process cannot be used currently for magnesium alloys for safety measures and this is the reason why we have developed and tested three processes for elaboration of real thixotropic magnesium billets. To inject these billets we have finalized a new thixoforming process called THIXOMAG(TM) without gas protection avoiding global warming and with any risk of explosion| adaptable to a conventional cold chamber pressure die casting machine to avoid expensive and complicated solutions. This device is suited both for magnesium and aluminum alloys with the same apparatus and characterized by a rapid. and homogeneous induction reheating of billets in the semi-solid state before injection of casting parts. Two different processes are practiced: partisans of semi-solid die casting with 40 % to 55 % of solid phase associated to laminar filling for thick and strong casting parts to compete with forging and partisans of semi-liquid operate between 5 % and 20 % associated to turbulent filling for thinner casting parts. Therefore it is a question of choice. The THIXOMAGT(TM) process turns this situation to best account comes to the choice of semi-solid way just as well aluminum alloys as magnesium alloys to obtain laminar-filling shown also by mold flow software. The THIXOMAG(TM) process is closely linked with high pressure die casting in order to obtain semi-solid structure that displays an important increase of strain after heat treatment and rise of AZ91D Young's modulus correlated with and homogeneous two phases structure with thin intermetallic lamellas. Corrosion resistance is also increased in comparison of conventional cast parts obtained by liquid die-casting. Cycle time of 27 s with three induction coils. Wall thickness parts from one and half millimeter to several centimeters without porosity. All these advantages are well suitable for net shape magnesium and aluminum parts necessary for automotive market. 6105,2003,2,4,Timing of autumn bird migration under climate change: advances in long-distance migrants| delays in short-distance migrants,As a response to increasing spring temperature in temperate regions in recent years| populations of many plant and animal species| including migratory birds| have advanced the seasonal start of their reproduction or growth. However| the effects of climate changes on subsequent events of the annual cycle remain poorly understood. We investigated long-term changes in the timing of autumn migration in birds| a key event in the annual cycle limiting the reproductive period. Using data spanning a 42-year period| we analysed long-term changes in the passage of 65 species of migratory birds through Western Europe. The autumn passage of migrants wintering south of the Sahara has advanced in recent years| presumably as a result of selection pressure to cross the Sahel before its seasonal dry period. In contrast| migrants wintering north of the Sahara have delayed autumn passage. In addition| species with a variable rather than a fixed number of broods per year have delayed passage| possibly because they are free to attempt more broods. Recent climate changes seem to have a simple unidirectional effect on the seasonal onset of reproduction| but complex and opposing effects on the timing of subsequent events in the annual cycle| depending on the ecology and life history of a species. This complicates predictions of overall effects of global warming on avian communities. 6138,2003,2,4,Translocation of a montane meadow to simulate the potential impact of climate change,The effects of warming on a montane meadow was simulated by a translocation experiment. A coherent piece of turf and soil was transferred from 600 m to 170 m a.s.l.| corresponding to an increase in temperature of ca. 2.8 K. The vegetation was monitored by recording cover and counting individuals one year before the translocation and continued for the subsequent seven years. For comparison| a control plot that had also been translocated but remained at 600 m was monitored. Four of eight species with a montane distribution in Europe showed a constant degree of cover during the investigation period (Nardus stricta| Poa chaixii| Polygonatum verticillatum| Potentilla erecta). In contrast| another four montane species declined in cover or died out (Arnica montana| Meum athamanticum| Hypericum maculatum| Galium harcynicum). None of these species declined on the control plot. It is argued that the species' responded individualistically to the site factors that had changed with the translocation to low altitude. A direct effect of enhanced temperature was probably the reason for the decline of only one species (Meum athamanticum). Reduced humidity might be the reason for the extinction of two moisture demanding species (Viola palustris| Succisa pratensis). The biomass of the plot increased by increased growth of one of the matrix species (Festuca rubra)| probably due to elevated nutrient mineralization. Many low growing species responded indirectly to the reduced light availability; caused by an increased level of competition for light (e.g. Galium harcynicum). Increased slug herbivory at low altitude resulted in the extinction of Arnica montana. At the end of the investigation period| the similarity in species composition to the initial state was only 45%| indicating that the community had changed into a different plant association. The importance of considering biotic interactions when predicting the impacts of climate change is discussed. 2747,2003,2,4,Tree root and soil heterotrophic respiration as revealed by girdling of boreal Scots pine forest: extending observations beyond the first year,Limitations in available techniques to separate autotrophic (root) and soil heterotrophic respiration have hampered the understanding of forest C cycling. The former is here defined as respiration by roots| their associated mycorrhizal fungi and other micro-organisms in the rhizosphere directly dependent on labile C compounds leaked from roots. In order to separate the autotrophic and heterotrophic components of soil respiration| all Scots pine trees in 900 m(2) plots were girdled to instantaneously terminate the supply of current photosynthates from the tree canopy to roots. Hogberg et al. (Nature 411| 789-792| 2001) reported that autotrophic activity contributed up to 56% of total soil respiration during the first summer of this experiment. They also found that mobilization of stored starch (and likely also sugars) in roots after girdling caused an increased apparent heterotrophic respiration on girdled plots. Herein a transient increase in the delta(13)C Of Soil CO(2) efflux after girdling| thought to be due to decomposition of (13)C-enriched ectomycorrhizal mycelium and root starch and sugar reserves| is reported. In the second year after girdling| when starch reserves of girdled tree roots were exhausted| calculated root respiration increased up to 65% of total soil CO(2) efflux. It is suggested that this estimate of its contribution to soil respiration is more precise than the previous based on one year of observation. Heterotrophic respiration declined in response to a 20-day-long 6 degreesC decline in soil temperature during the second summer| whereas root respiration did not decline. This did not support the idea that root respiration should be more sensitive to variations in soil temperature. It is suggested that above-ground photosynthetic activity and allocation patterns of recent photosynthates to roots should be considered in models of responses of forest C balances to global climate change. 6158,2003,2,4,Trends in bird and seal populations as indicators of a system shift in the Southern Ocean,Although world oceans have been warming over the past 50 years| the impact on biotic components is poorly understood because of the difficulty of obtaining long-term datasets on marine organisms. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in global climate and there is growing evidence of climate warming. We show that air temperatures measured by meteorological stations have steadily increased over the past 50 years in the southern Indian Ocean| the increase starting in mid 1960s and stabilizing in mid 1980s| being particularly important in the sub-Antarctic sector. At the same time| with a time lag of 2-9 years with temperatures| the population size of most seabirds and seals monitored on several breeding sites have decreased severely| whilst two species have increased at the same time. These changes| together with indications of a simultaneous decrease in secondary production in sub-Antarctic waters and the reduction of sea-ice extent further south| indicate that a major system shift has occurred in the Indian Ocean part of the Southern Ocean. This shift illustrates the high sensitivity of marine ecosystems| and especially upper trophic level predators| to climatic changes. 6316,2003,3,3,Trends in development of refrigeration oils for refrigerating and air conditioning equipments with alternative refrigerants,Due to regulations related to ozone depletion| chloro fluoro carbon such as R12 used in refrigerators and R22 used in air conditioners were replaced or being replaced by hydro fluoro carbon such as R134a or R410. However| hydro fluoro carbon was also added to the list of global warming substances by the act adopted at the international conference in 1997. Consequently| researches on refrigeration cycle with using natural type refrigerants have been conducted actively. Among natural type refrigerants| attention is paid on CO2 as most prospective. A paper explains the development of refrigeration oils in as alternative refrigerants| that is| R134a| R410A| and natural type. Adoption of isobutene (R600a) for refrigerators and CO2 for hot-water suppliers is progressing in home appliances. For the former| conventional mineral oil and HAB (alkyl-benzene) oil could be utilized and for the latter PAG (polyalkylene glycol)oil was adopted by the results of lubricity test| etc.
2776,2003,2,4,Trends in tropical cyclone impact - A study in Andhra Pradesh| India,Contrary to the common perception that tropical cyclones are on the increase| due perhaps to global warming| studies all over the world show that| although there are decadal variations| there is no definite long-term trend in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones over the period of about a century for which data are available. There is| nevertheless| a sharp increase in the socio-economic impact of tropical cyclones in the form of increasing property damage. An analysis of cyclones affecting the state of Andhra Pradesh| India| in the last quarter century by normalizing cyclone damage for economic and demographic factors shows that here| as elsewhere| the greater vulnerability is attributable mainly to these factors and not to any increase in frequency or intensity of cyclones. The decrease of alertness in disaster management that often occurs after a few years' lull in occurrence of cyclones| known as the "fading memory syndrome|" also contributes to increases in loss of lives and property damage. This distinction between meteorological and socioeconomic causes for the increased impact is important to avoid a tendency for political and administrative decision makers to blame natural causes. They have to take these realities into account| not just in developing a vigilant disaster management system| but in land-use planning| development of coastal districts| and insurance measures. 5964,2003,2,4,Tropical drought regions in global warming and El Nino teleconnections,Climate model global warming simulations predict large regional changes in tropical rainfall| including regions of drought. Qualitatively similar changes occur during El Nino interannual variability. Using an intermediate climate model| we have identified a mechanism that creates regional reductions in precipitation at the margins of convection zones during warming. In this "upped-ante mechanism''| a warm troposphere increases the value of surface boundary layer moisture required for convection to occur. In regions of plentiful moisture supply| moisture simply rises to maintain precipitation| but this increases the moisture gradient relative to neighboring subsidence regions. Reductions in rainfall then result for those margins of convection zones that have strong inflow of air from the subsidence regions and less frequently meet the increased "ante'' for convection. In simulations analyzed here| this new mechanism is the leading cause of tropical drought in the global warming case and is dominant in certain El Nino drought regions. 2809,2003,5,4,True polar wander and supercontinents,I present a general model for true polar wander (TPW)| in the context of supercontinents and simple modes of mantle convection. Old| mantle-stationary supercontinents shield their underlying mesosphere from the cooling effects of subduction| and an axis of mantle upwelling is established that is complementary to the downwelling girdle of subduction zones encircling the old supercontinent. The upwelling axis is driven to the equator by TPW| and the old supercontinent fragments at the equator. The prolate axis of upwelling persists as the continental fragments disperse; it is rotationally unstable and can lead to TPW of a different flavor| involving extremely rapid ( less than or equal to m/year) rotations or changes in paleolatitude for the continental fragments as they reassemble into a new supercontinent. Only after several hundred million years| when the new supercontinent has aged sufficiently| will the downwelling zone over which it amalgamated be transformed into a new upwelling zone| through the mesospheric shielding process described above. The cycle is then repeated. The model explains broad features of the paleomagnetic database for the interval 1200-200 Ma. Rodinia assembled around Laurentia as that continent experienced occasionally rapid| oscillatory shifts in paleolatitude about a persistent axis on the paleo-equator| an axis that may have been inherited from the predecessor supercontinent Nuna. By 800 Ma| long-lived Rodinia stabilized its equatorial position and disaggregated immediately thereafter. Gondwanaland assembled as its constituent fragments documented rapid| oscillatory shifts of apparent polar wander| here interpreted as TPW The Gondwanaland-Pangea centroid migrated to the equator immediately prior to Jurassic -Cretaceous breakup. Lack of substantial TPW since 200 Ma may indicate the stabilizing effects of specific plate boundary conditions (i.e.| persistent convection patterns in the Tethys-Indian Ocean region)| possibly superimposed on a secular geodynamic shift governed by increased lower-mantle viscosity associated with long-term planetary cooling. TPW is a significant geodynamic process that| in terms of continental motions| may even dominate plate tectonics for certain intervals of Earth history. The effects of such rapid TPW may be found among regional tectonics and sea-level changes| and possibly global climate change and biological evolution. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 6082,2003,2,4,Tufted puffin reproduction reveals ocean climate variability,Anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are associated with interannual and decadal variability as well as with long-term climate changes indicative of global warming. Such oscillations could precipitate changes in a variety of oceanic processes to affect marine species worldwide. As global temperatures continue to rise| it will be critically important to be able to predict the effects of such changes on species' abundance| distribution| and ecological relationships so as to identify vulnerable populations. Off the coast of British Columbia| warm SSTs have persisted through the last two decades. Based on 16 years of reproductive data collected between 1975 and 2002| we show that the extreme variation in reproductive performance exhibited by tufted puffins (Fratercuia cirrhata) was related to changes in SST both within and among seasons. Especially warm SSTs corresponded with drastically decreased growth rates and fledging success of puffin nestlings. Puffins may partially compensate for within-season changes associated with SST by adjusting their breeding phenology| yet our data also suggest that they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change at this site and may serve as a valuable indicator of biological change in the North Pacific. Further and prolonged increases in ocean temperature could make Triangle Island| which contains the largest tufted puffin colony in Canada| unsuitable as a breeding site for this species. 6172,2003,3,2,Uncertainties in the fate of nitrogen II: A quantitative assessment of the uncertainties in major nitrogen fluxes in the Netherlands,Enhanced levels of nitrogen in the environment may have several adverse effects| including decreased plant species diversity in ( semi) natural terrestrial ecosystems| eutrophication of surface waters| pollution of ground-water due to nitrate leaching and global warming due to nitrous and nitrogen oxide (N2O and NOx) emissions. To determine the effectiveness of policies aimed at the reduction of emission of ammonia (NH3)| N2O and NOx| nitrate (NO3) leaching and nitrogen (N) runoff| it is essential to have information on the fate of nitrogen in both agricultural and non-agricultural soils on a regional and national scale and its inherent uncertainties. In this paper| we quantified the uncertainties in the emission| uptake| accumulation| denitrification| leaching and runoff of nitrogen at a national scale and for specific land use-soil type combinations. Furthermore| we identified which parameters contribute most to the overall uncertainty in the emission of ammonia to the atmosphere and the leaching/runoff to groundwater and surface water. To gain quantitative insight into the propagation of the uncertainty| a model was developed representing all crucial processes in the N chain by simple process descriptions. Uncertainties were quantified for the Netherlands as a whole| including terrestrial systems| both agricultural and non-agricultural land| and aquatic systems. For agricultural and non-agricultural land| plots were distinguished| consisting of a multiple of 500 3 500 m and of 250 3 250 m grid cells| respectively| with unique combinations of soil use| soil type and groundwater table class that were derived from existing digital maps. Model parameters were assigned by using relationships with soil type| groundwater level class and land use. The uncertainty was quantified by means of a Monte Carlo analysis| whereas statistical approaches were used to identify which parameters contribute most to the overall uncertainty of the fate of nitrogen. The 90% confidence interval for the fluxes of N compounds to air| groundwater and surface water (in Gg N.yr(-1)) ranged between 102 and 194 for ammonia emission| between 18 and 51 for N2O emissions| between 32 and 108 for NO3 inflow to groundwater and between 2 and 38 for N inflow to surface water. The uncertainty in NH3 emission was mainly caused by the uncertainty in the NH3 emission fractions for animal manure| whereas the uncertainty in N2O emission was mainly due to the uncertainty in the fractions relating total nitrification and denitrification to N2O emissions. The uncertainty in inflow to groundwater and runoff to surface water was mainly caused by the uncertainty in denitrification in the soil and in upper groundwater and in non-agricultural soils also by the N accumulation in the soil. In view of the need to monitor and evaluate the impact of N reduction policies and measures| it is essential to put more effort in activities yielding a reduction of these large uncertainties| such as additional data gathering and process research under field circumstances. 6008,2003,4,4,Uncertainty and climate change,Anthropogenic| or human-induced| climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research| the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty. 6070,2003,2,4,Uphill shifts in distribution of butterflies in the Czech Republic: effects of changing climate detected on a regional scale,Aim To assess whether altitude changes in the distribution of butterflies during the second half of the 20th century are consistent with climate warming scenarios. Location The Czech Republic. Methods Distributional data were taken from a recent butterfly distribution atlas| which maps all Czech butterflies using a grid of 10' longitude to 6' latitude| equivalent to about 11.1 x 12 km. Cell altitude was used as an independent variable| and altitudinal ranges of individual species ( less migrants| extinct species| recent arrivals and extremely rare species) in 1950 - 80 vs. 1995 - 2001 and in 1950 - 80| 1981 - 94| 1995 2001 were compared using U - tests and linear regressions. Results Of 117 ( U - tests) and 119 ( regressions) species| we found significant uphill increases in 15 and 12 species| respectively. The two groups were nested; none ( U - test) and one regression) species showed a significant altitudinal decrease. Binomial tests of frequencies of signs of the U - tests and regression coefficients| including nonsignificant ones| also showed that the increases prevailed. The mean and median of the significant shifts were 60 and 90 m| respectively| and the maximum shift per species was 148 m. The recording effort in individual time periods was not biased with respect to altitude. Main conclusion Altitude shifts in the distribution of Czech butterflies are already detectable on the coarse scales of standard distribution maps. The increasing species do not show any consistent pattern in habitat affiliations| conservation status and mountain vs. nonmountain distribution| which renders climatic explanation as the most likely cause of the distributional shifts. 2748,2003,2,4,Urbanization and seasonal temperature trends: Observational evidence from a data-sparse part of North America,Viewed from the continental or hemispheric perspective| the evidence of warming trends in surface temperatures continues to accumulate. Here. we focus on the detection of seasonal temperature trends at regional and sub-regional space scales. The study region is transnational| extending from the border areas of New Mexico and Texas in the USA| southward into the altiplano of north central Mexico. The analysis considers maximum and minimum temperature records (1941-2000) from 21 stations located in a variety of land-use environments ranging from large urban settings to rural areas. The analysis demonstrates that a significant part of the variability in minimum temperatures for stations located in large urban areas is captured by positive linear trend| and thus is likely associated with rapid urbanization within the region. A similar| but comparatively minor| urban effect is also apparent in the maximum temperature records for the warm season (June-September). Aside from the urban influence| the most consistent feature emerging from the analysis is the tendency for station records to exhibit a recent (post - 1970) warming trend. It is present across all place sizes| i.e. from large urban to rural stations| and is particularly pronounced for cool- and warm-season minimum temperatures and for warm-season maximum temperatures. This behaviour generally mirrors the temperature trends detected on continental and hemispheric space scales| and thus the onset of this warming regime is broadly consistent with documented changes in large-scale climate modes such as the North Atlantic oscillation and the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. Copyright (C) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.
6179,2003,2,4,Use of climatic data to assess the effect of insect harassment on the autumn weight of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) calves,Considerable behavioural evidence supports harassment by insects as the most important causal link between warm summer temperatures and low body condition of reindeer Rangier tarandus| and that insect activity is influenced by weather condition. However| much less is known about the effect of insect harassment on individual performance| measured as reduced weight gain during summer| and the related consequences on both the reindeer pastoral economy and reindeer as a biological resource. Using climatic data| this paper develops a simple index for the analysis of insect harassment that takes into consideration weather variables known to significantly affect insect activity and/or the level of insect harassment. The insect harassment index| which is based on mid-day ambient temperature greater than or equal to 13 degreesC| wind speed < 6 m/s and cloud cover < 40%| is further used to test the hypothesis that insect harassment has a negative effect on reindeer performance during summer in three Norwegian populations. Results show that harassment by insects negatively affects the autumn weight of reindeer calves| most probably through reduced grazing time and increased energy expenditure| but also indirectly by negatively influencing milk production of the dam. Moreover| female calves were more vulnerable to insect harassment than males. Insect harassment may have consequences on future reproductive performance| calving time| calf birth weight and hence neonatal mortality. and thus affect reindeer productivity. The presented index is easy to estimate and may be used to quantify and compare harassment levels on various reindeer summer grazing areas for management purposes. Our results also suggest that the expected temperature increase in the course of global warming may increase the insect-related stress on reindeer. 6271,2003,3,1,Utilization of carbon dioxide as soft oxidant in the dehydrogenation of ethylbenzene over supported vanadium-antimony oxide catalystst,This work shows that carbon dioxide| which is a main contributor to the global warming effect| could be utilized as a selective oxidant in the oxidative dehydrogenation of ethylbenzene over alumina-supported vanadium oxide catalysts. The modification of the catalytically active vanadium oxide component with appropriate amounts of antimony oxide led to more stable catalytic performance along with a higher styrene yield (76%) at high styrene selectivity (> 95%). The improved catalytic behavior was attributable to the enhanced redox properties of the active V-sites. 6283,2003,2,4,UV-B radiation| climate change and frogs - the importance of phenology,The authors of a recent commentary challenged a "traditional view" that organisms living at high latitudes are normally exposed to lower doses of potentially damaging UV-B radiation than those living at lower latitudes. Taking as their main example the European common frog (Rana temporaria L.) in Scandinavia| they suggested that global warming might be masking adverse biological effects of ozone depletion| which allows a greater percentage of solar UV-B to reach the Earth's surface| by altering species' phenology. Here| I expand the scope of that study to include phenology and potential exposure to UV-B radiation across a larger part of the common frog's geographic range| including populations from oceanic and alpine climates. The results highlight both the importance of phenology in limiting exposure to UV-B radiation and the need for a mechanistic understanding of phenological variation. The results also illustrate some important limitations of a commonly used field experiment| at least in terms of its utility for comparing sensitivities to UV-B or predicting effects of ozone depletion. 2708,2003,2,4,Variation in acclimation of photosynthesis in Trifolium repens after eight years of exposure to Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE),The initial stimulation of photosynthesis observed on elevation of [CO2] in grasslands has been predicted to be a transient phenomenon constrained by the loss of photosynthetic capacity due to other limitations| notably nutrients and sinks for carbohydrates. Legumes might be expected partially to escape these feedbacks through symbiotic N-2 fixation. The Free-Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experiment at Eschikon| Switzerland| has been the longest running investigation of the effects of open-air elevation of [CO2] on vegetation. The prediction of a long-term loss of photosynthetic capacity was tested by analysing photosynthesis in Trifolium repens L. (cv. Milkanova) in the spring and autumn of the eighth| ninth and tenth years of treatment. A high and low N treatment also allowed a test of the significance of exogenous N-supply in maintaining a stimulation of photosynthetic capacity in the long-term. Prior work in this Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment has revealed that elevated [CO2] increased both vegetative and reproductive growth of T. repens independent of N treatment. It is shown here that the photosynthetic response of T. repens was also independent of N fertilization under both current ambient and elevated (600 mumol mol(-1)) [CO2]. There was a strong effect of season on photosynthesis| with light-saturated rates (A(sat)) 37% higher in spring than in autumn. Higher A(sat) in the spring was supported by higher maximum Rubisco carboxylation rates (V||m|x) and maximum rates of electron transport (J(max)) contributing to RuBP regeneration. Elevated [CO2] increased A(sat) by 37% when averaged across all measurement periods and both N fertilization levels| and decreased stomatal conductance by 25%. In spring| there was no effect of elevated [CO2] on photosynthetic capacity of leaves| but in autumn both V-c|V-max and J(max) were reduced by approximately 20% in elevated [CO2]. The results show that acclimation of photosynthetic capacity can occur in a nitrogen-fixing species| in the field where there are no artificial restrictions on sink capacity. However| even with acclimation there was a highly significant increase in photosynthesis at elevated [CO2]. 6032,2003,4,4,Variations in air temperature during the last 100 years revealed by delta O-18 in the Malan ice core from the Tibetan Plateau,By comprehensive analyses| it was found that the variations in delta(18)O recorded in Malan ice core from the Kekexili Region on the Tibetan Plateau could represent the changes in air temperature during the summer half year (from May to October) over the Kekexili Region and the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. The general increase trend in delta(18)O in this ice core during the past century indicated climate warming| and it was estimated that air temperature during the summer half-year rose about 1.2degreesC over there then. However| this ice core record documented that the study area has been cooling while most of the world has been dramatically warming since the late 1970s. A teleconnection was found between the variations in delta(18)O in the Malan ice core and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Moreover| the variations in delta(18)O in this ice core were similar to that in the summer half-year air temperature over the southern Tibetan Plateau on the centurial time scale| but opposite on the multidecadal time scale. 5976,2003,2,4,Vulnerability assessment of the maize and sorghum crops to climate change in Botswana,This study examines the sensitivity of maize and sorghum crops to global warming in Botswana| a country with arid climatic conditions and shortfalls in locally produced grain. The vulnerability of the maize and sorghum crops to climate change were studied using crop simulation models while climate change scenarios were generated from Global Circulation Models. Simulated yields indicated that rain-fed crop production under the observed climate was a small fraction of what could be produced under optimal conditions. The gap was attributed to both physical ( especially lack of rain) and socio-economic constraints. Using the southern African core climate change scenario| simulated yields declined by 36% in the case of maize and 31% for sorghum in the sand veldt region. Yield reductions from the hard veldt region were in the order of 10% for both maize and sorghum. The growing season became shorter| the average reduction in days in the sand veldt region being 5 and 8 days for maize and sorghum respectively| and correspondingly| 3 and 4 days over the hard veldt region. The food security option currently followed in Botswana was found to be a good adaptive strategy under a changed climate. 6001,2003,2,4,Warming permafrost in European mountains,Here we present the first systematic measurements of European mountain permafrost temperatures from a latitudinal transect of six boreholes extending from the Alps| through Scandinavia to Svalbard. Boreholes were drilled in bedrock to depths of at least 100 m between May 1998 and September 2000. Geothermal profiles provide evidence for regional-scale secular warming| since all are nonlinear| with near-surface warm-side temperature deviations from the deeper thermal gradient. Topographic effects lead to variability between Alpine sites. First approximation estimates| based on curvature within the borehole thermal profiles| indicate a maximum ground surface warming of +1 degreesC in Svalbard| considered to relate to thermal changes in the last 100 years. In addition| a 15-year time series of thermal data from the 58-m-deep Murtel-Corvatsch permafrost borehole in Switzerland| drilled in creeping frozen ice-rich rock debris| shows an overall warming trend| but with high-amplitude interannual fluctuations that reflect early winter snow cover more strongly than air temperatures. Thus interpretation of the deeper borehole thermal histories must clearly take account of the potential effects of changing snow cover in addition to atmospheric temperatures. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6280,2003,3,4,Warming potential reduction of C4F8 using inductively coupled plasma,The global warming potential (GWP) reduction of the perfluorinated compound (PFC) semiconductor manufacturing gas| C4F8| has been studied in an inductively coupled high-frequency (13.56 MHz) plasma system operating under multimode antenna. Mass spectral analysis of the decomposed species showed that major ionic species in the present study were (CFx+ (x = 1| 3) and C2F4+). Weak signals of CF4+ ions were detected for the first time in a C4F8 plasma. The behavior of the CF4+| C2F4+ and CF3+ ion peaks at various gas pressures (1-50 mTorr) and the effect of additive oxygen on the decomposition of the parent gas and CF4 have been presented. The mechanism of electron energy control was proposed for the effective decomposition of the C4F8 gas. The overall results showed that| at a higher azimuthal mode of antenna (m = 1) the C4F8 decomposition and its GWP reduction was significant and it was considered to be due to the electron energy control at that mode. 2791,2003,4,4,Water and carbon cycles in the Mississippi River basin: Potential implications for the Northern Hemisphere residual terrestrial sink,The hydrologic cycle plays an important role in carbon cycling| due to the coupling of vapor release and CO2 uptake during photosynthesis. This coupling| expressed as Water Use Efficiency (WUE) or Transpiration Ratio| can provide an inexpensive alternative for estimating the Net Primary Productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems. The D/H and O-18/O-16 trends of river water in the Mississippi basin are mostly indistinguishable from those of precipitation. This| combined with isotopic mass balance relationships| suggests that direct evaporation of surface water is small and evapotranspiration (ET) flux from the basin therefore consists mostly of interception and transpiration| with interception approximated from field studies. The calculated water flux associated with transpiration is 1500.8 km(3) (77.3% of the evapotranspiration flux). Utilizing the average WUE of 864 mol H2O for each mole of CO2| the NPP of the Mississippi River basin amounts to 1.16 Pg C/yr| similar to the model estimates of the heterotrophic soil respiration flux of 1.12 Pg C/yr. This does not favor the postulated existence of a major sink for atmospheric CO2 in the temperate Northern Hemispheric ecosystems of the conterminous United States| but due to uncertainties in the input parameters we cannot discount the possibility that these ecosystems act as a modest sink. 6265,2003,2,4,Western Himalayan snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall: A re-examination with INSAT and NCEP/NCAR data,This study presents the monthly climatology and variability of the INSAT (Indian National Satellite) derived snow cover estimates over the western Himalayan region. The winter/spring snow estimates over the region are related to the subsequent summer monsoon rainfall over India. The NCEP/NCAR data are used to understand the physical mechanism of the snow-monsoon links. 15 years (19862000) of recent data are utilized to investigate these features in the present global warming environment. Results reveal that the spring snow cover area has been declining and snow has been melting faster from winter to spring after 1993. Connections between snow cover estimates and Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) show that spring snow cover area is negatively related with maximum during May| while snow melt during the February-May period is positively related with subsequent IMR| implying that smaller snow cover area during May and faster snow melt from winter to spring is conducive for good monsoon activity over India. NCEP/NCAR data further shows that the heat low over northwest India and the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent| in particular the cross-equatorial flow| during May are intensified (weakened) when the snow cover area during May is smaller (extensive) and snow melts faster (slower) during the February-May period. The well-documented negative relationship between winter snow and summer rainfall seems to have altered recently and changed to a positive relationship. The changes observed in snow cover extent and snow depth due to global warming may be a possible cause for the weakening winter snow-IMR relationship. 2740,2003,3,4,Wheat yield improvement in eroded semi-arid areas of China - Strategies for effective conservation and efficient use of limited supplies of water,The greatest fear from global climate change is drought| and water is the most important factor influencing wheat growth. Soil and water conservation are| therefore| key requirements for sustaining productivity and environmental quality in semi.-arid cropping systems. Great attention has been paid to the management of demand for| and mode efficient use of water. The comprehensive technical strategies reviewed in this paper include conserving water to combine both increased agricultural productivity and resource conservation; enquiries into how wheat plants respond to drought through morphological| physiological and metabolic modifications that occur in all plant organs; breeding for drought tolerance where there is a delineated stress environment and genotype x environment interactions are stable; and effective conservation of rainfall and high efficiency of use. Valuable techniques such as conservation tillage| mulch cultivation| limited irrigation| introduction of drought-tolerant varieties and rotation systems can be adjusted to local agricultural practices. 6318,2003,2,6,Will we face global warming in the nearest future?,The data series of the Wolf numbers and surface air temperature over Irkutsk and the entire globe from 1882 to date has been analyzed. The trends of the local (Irkutsk) and global (the entire Earth) temperatures follow the trend of solar activity. A global fall of the surface temperature in the coming 25 years is predicted based on close solar-terrestrial relations and on an anticipated decrease in solar activity by 2025.
2820,2003,2,4,Winter stemflow nutrient inputs into a southern New England broadleaved deciduous forest,Stemflow leaching from the above-ground vegetative surfaces of broadleaved deciduous canopy trees has been well documented during the growing season. Winter stemflow leaching from the leafless crowns of deciduous trees is less well understood| especially in the context of global climate change. Boreal and northern temperate forests are forecast to have a lower incidence of snow events and an increased frequency of rain and mixed precipitation events. A change in the seasonal precipitation regime may be significant due to linkages among global change| stemflow leaching| and biogeochemical processes. The aim of this paper is to (1) demonstrate the extent of winter stemflow nutrient leaching from deciduous trees; (2) explore how winter stemflow leachate quantity may vary as a function of the type of precipitation event; and (3) quantify the extent to which an increase in the incidence of snow-to-rain events would enhance stemflow leaching. Measuring meteorological conditions| stemflow volumes| and stemflow chemistry over two successive winter seasons in New England demonstrated that winter stemflow drainage was significantly enriched compared to the incident bulk precipitation: 162 times greater for K(+)| 44 times greater for Ca(2+)| and 29 times greater for Mg(2+). Snow-to-rain events leached considerably greater quantities of base cations from the deciduous trees than all other types of precipitation events. An increased frequency of snow-to-rain events from 13.8% to 25% of winter precipitation events would substantially increase mean stemflow nutrient inputs to the bases of forest trees during winter. Implications for significantly increased winter stemflow leachate inputs| corresponding to an increased incidence of snow-to-rain events| include a shift in the biogeographic range of species| delayed leaf emergence| and increased soil respiration. 6184,2003,2,4,Winter warming facilitates range expansion: cold tolerance of the butterfly Atalopedes campestris,Our ability to predict ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change requires an understanding of the mechanistic links between climate and range limits. The warming trend over the past half-century has generated numerous opportunities to develop much-needed case studies of these links. Species that are only limited by climatic factors are likely to shift range quickly during periods of warming. Such species directly impact recipient communities and indicate trends that will become more widespread. Because minimum temperature (T-min) is rising at twice the rate of maximum temperature| species with this range-limiting factor may be especially responsive to global warming. In this study| I test the hypothesis that rising T-min has directly affected the range of a skipper butterfly. Atalopedes campestris has moved northward rapidly this century| recently colonizing eastern Washington where January T-min has risen 3degreesC in 50 years. The results show that: 1. A. campestris' range lies completely within the -4degreesC January average minimum isotherm| and that recently colonized areas were below this threshold earlier this century. 2. In acute cold stress experiments| -4 to -7degreesC proved to be a critical thermal limit: median supercooling point was -6.3degreesC| and minimum lethal temperature (LT50 with 12-h exposure) was -5.7degreesC. 3. In chronic cold stress experiments| survivorship declined sharply in diurnally fluctuating thermal regimes typical of the current range edge. High mortality occurred under constant 0degreesC conditions as well as in fluctuating regimes| implying that thermal insulation from snow would not protect A. campestris. 4. There was no evidence of evolution in cold tolerance at the range margin| despite strong selection. Thus| winter warming was apparently a prerequisite for the range expansion. Characteristics of this species that seem to be associated with its rapid response are that it is an opportunistic species| it is not habitat or dispersal limited| and it is constrained by T-min. 6425,2004,4,4,"Great Salinity Anomalies" in a coupled climate model,Several "Great Salinity Anomalies'' have been observed to propagate around the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre over the past 40 years. These could be a response to global warming| or part of the natural variability of the climate system. Here| we find "Great Salinity Anomalies'' in the HadCM3 coupled climate simulation of pre-industrial climate| suggesting they are not a response to recent climatic change. In concurrence with observed events| the HadCM3 simulation produces events which originate in both the Greenland and Labrador Seas. 6475,2004,4,4,"ORAGES": a dedicated sensor for detection| localisation and fine analysis of lightning flashes from space,According to mission parameters| space-based lightning sensors enable detailed analysis of mesoscale convective systems and large scale atmospheric perturbations (e.g. intertropical convergence zone| monsoon regions| tropical cyclones) and/or statistical studies of the global parameters related to electrical activity on a large spatial and temporal scale. Measurement of spatial distribution and frequency of atmospheric discharges| correlated with meteorological satellites observations| gives the opportunity to have a more precise knowledge of convective systems| to identify the more active regions| to characterise their life cycle and to establish a geographical and seasonal climatology of thunderstorms. Additionally| the global analysis of the electrical activity of thunderstorms could be a diagnosis element of global warming or a quantitative basis for the compared evaluation of natural and anthropic production of nitrogen oxides. Within the CNES microsatellite program| the ORAGES mission was proposed in order to carry out lightning detection| localisation and characterisation based upon the interferometric analysis of their VHF radiation. The present paper describes the different components of the instrument (antenna network| receiver and data-processing system) and presents an evaluation of its performances. (C) 2003 International Astronautical Federation. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6361,2004,2,4,A comparison of the heat tolerance and growth of a selected and non-selected line of rainbow trout| Oncorhynchus mykiss| in Western Australia,Duplicates of a domesticated (H-line) and a naturalised line (S-line) of Oncorhynchus mykiss were examined for growth performance and tolerance to acute exposure to water temperature of 27 degreesC. After 516 days from hatch| fish from the H-line were| on average| 11% longer and 24% heavier than fish from the S-line. Fish from the H-line also displayed lower coefficients of variation in length and weight than fish from the S-line. H-line fish had a significantly greater tolerance to water temperature of 27 degreesC than S-line fish and significant logistic models were developed for each line. LT50's of H-line fish were approximately double the LT50's of S-line fish. Length or weight within a line was not significantly correlated with survival time at 27 degreesC. The results indicated that the H-line of O. mykiss is well adapted to the relatively hot summer conditions of Western Australia and that directed selection for faster growth has been effective in selecting for increasing heat tolerance within this line. The implications for establishing an even more heat-tolerant line of O. mykiss are discussed in relation to global warming. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6355,2004,4,4,A composite study of the synoptic differences between major and minor dust storm springs over the China-Mongolia areas,In order to improve the understanding of the mean circulations of and the differences between major and minor dust storm springs over the China-Mongolia area| multiple-cases| multiple-element circulation composite analyses were conducted utilizing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis gridded data. The main conclusions are: 1) Based on the differences in the dust storminducing system| dust origin| route of cold air and main dust storm-hit areas| the China-Mongolia dust storms regime can be divided into west| east and Southwest China-Mongolia sub-regimes; 2) During the major dust storm springs in Western China-Mongolia| circulations on the mid-and lower-levels are characterized by a deeper and stronger Siberian high| dominant troughs or cyclones in and around Mongolia| and intensified westerly winds around the China-Mongolia border| with cold air moving frequently along northwestern or northern routes into China. During minor dust storm springs in Western China-Mongolia| the pattern is altered toward lesser cold air intrusions; 3) During major dust storm springs in Eastern China-Mongolia| circulations on the mid- and lower-levels are characterized by the dominant China-Mongolia ridges and troughs or cyclones in and around the Japan Sea| with cold air moving frequently along northeast routes into China; 4) The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in dust storm occurrences in the last five decades are related closely to the changes in synoptic circulations; and 5) Warming in Mongolia and Southwest Siberia are accompanied with a weakening of the Siberian cold air mass and intensification of the Xingjiang ridges since the 1980's. These conditions are unfavorable for the initiation of major dust storms. Hence| if warming in this region continues in phase with the current global warming trend| dust storm activities will decrease in the future. 6538,2004,5,2,A glacial warm water anomaly in the subantarctic Atlantic Ocean| near the Agulhas Retroflection,ODP Site 1089 is optimally located in order to monitor the occurrence of maxima in Agulhas heat and salt spillage from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean. Radiolarian-based paleotemperature transfer functions allowed to reconstruct the climatic history for the last 450 kyr at this location. A warm sea surface temperature anomaly during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 was recognized and traced to other oceanic records along the surface branch of the global thermolialine (THC) circulation system| and is particularly marked at locations where a strong interaction between oceanic and atmospheric overturning cells and fronts occurs. This anomaly is absent in the Vostok ice core deuterium| and in oceanic records from the Antarctic Zone. However| it is present in the deuterium excess record from the Vostok ice core| interpreted as reflecting the temperature at the moisture source site for the snow precipitated at Vostok Station. As atmospheric models predict a subtropical Indian source for such moisture| this provides the necessary teleconnection between East Antarctica and ODP Site 1089| as the subtropical Indian is also the source area of the Agulhas Current| the main climate agent at our study location. The presence of the MIS 10 anomaly in the delta(13)C foraminiferal records from the same core supports its connection to oceanic mechanisms| linking stronger Agulhas spillover intensity to increased productivity in the study area. We suggest| in analogy to modem oceanographic observations| this to be a consequence of a shallow nutricline| induced by eddy mixing and baroclinic tide generation| which are in turn connected to the flow geometry| and intensity| of the Agulhas Current as it flows past the Agulhas Bank. We interpret the intensified inflow of Agulhas Current to the South Atlantic as responding to the switch between lower and higher amplitude in the insolation forcing in the Agulhas Current source area. This would result in higher SSTs in the Cape Basin during the glacial MIS 10| due to the release into the South Atlantic of the heat previously accumulating in the subtropical and equatorial Indian and Pacific Ocean. If our explanation for the MIS 10 anomaly in terms of an insolation variability switch is correct| we might expect that a future Agulhas SSST anomaly event will further delay the onset of next glacial age. In fact| the insolation forcing conditions for the Holocene (the current interglacial) are very similar to those present during MIS 11 (the interglacial preceding MIS 10)| as both periods are characterized by a low insolation variability for the Agulhas Current source area. Natural climatic variability will force the Earth system in the same direction as the anthropogenic global warming trend| and will thus lead to even warmer than expected global temperatures in the near future. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6339,2004,2,2,A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming,A monthly dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1870 to 2002 is derived using historical precipitation and temperature data for global land areas on a 2.58 grid. Over Illinois| Mongolia| and parts of China and the former Soviet Union| where soil moisture data are available| the PDSI is significantly correlated ( r = 0.5 to 0.7) with observed soil moisture content within the top 1-m depth during warm-season months. The strongest correlation is in late summer and autumn| and the weakest correlation is in spring| when snowmelt plays an important role. Basin-averaged annual PDSI covary closely ( r = 0.6 to 0.8) with streamflow for seven of world's largest rivers and several smaller rivers examined. The results suggest that the PDSI is a good proxy of both surface moisture conditions and streamflow. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature and an El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced mode of mostly interannual variations as the two leading patterns. The global very dry areas| defined as PDSI < -3.0| have more than doubled since the 1970s| with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an ENSO-induced precipitation decrease and a subsequent expansion primarily due to surface warming| while global very wet areas (PDSI > +3.0) declined slightly during the 1980s. Together| the global land areas in either very dry or very wet conditions have increased from; 20% to 38% since 1972| with surface warming as the primary cause after the mid-1980s. These results provide observational evidence for the increasing risk of droughts as anthropogenic global warming progresses and produces both increased temperatures and increased drying. 6721,2004,3,4,A limited LCA comparing large- and small-scale production of rape methyl ester (RME) under Swedish conditions,Production of rape methyl ester (RME) can be carried out with different systems solutions| in which the choice of system is usually related to the scale of the production. The purpose of this study was to analyse whether the use of a small-scale RME production system reduced the environmental load in comparison to a medium- and a large-scale system. To fulfil this purpose| a limited LCA| including air-emissions and energy requirements| was carried out for the three plant sizes. For small plants and physical allocation| the global warming potential was 40.3 g CO2-eq/MJ(fuel)| the acidification potential 236 mg SO2-eq/MJ(fuel)| the eutrophication potential 39.1 Mg PO43--eq/MJ(fuel)| the photochemical oxidant creation potential 3.29 Mg C2H4-eq/MJ(fuel)| and the energy requirement 295 kJ/MJ(fuel). It was shown that the differences in environmental impact and energy requirement between small-| medium- and large-scale systems were small or even negligible. The higher oil extraction efficiency and the more efficient use of machinery and buildings in the large-scale system were| to a certain degree| outweighed by the longer transport distances. The dominating production step was the cultivation| in which production of fertilisers| soil emissions and tractive power made major contributions to the environmental load. The results were| however| largely dependent on the method used for allocation of the environmental burden between the RME and the by-products meal and glycerine. This indicates that when different biofuels or production strategies are to be compared| it is important that the results are calculated with the same allocation strategies and system limitations. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6661,2004,4,2,A low-order model for the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to climate change,Concern has been expressed that anthropogenic climate change may lead to a slowdown or even collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Because of the possibly severe consequences that such an event could have on the northern North Atlantic and northwestern Europe| integrated assessment models (IAMs) are needed to explore the associated political and socioeconomic implications. State-of-the-art climate models representing the THC are| however| often too complex to be incorporated into an integrated assessment framework. In this paper we present a low-order model of the Atlantic THC which meets the main requirements of IAMs: it (1) is physically based| (2) is computationally highly efficient| (3) allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis and (4) can be linked to globally aggregated climate models that are mostly used in IAMs. The model is an interhemispheric extension of the seminal Stommel model. Its parameters are determined by a least-squares fit to the output of a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. Results of a number of transient global warming simulations indicate that the model is able to reproduce many features of the behaviour of coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models such as the sensitivity of the THC to the amount| regional distribution and rate of climate change. 6371,2004,3,4,A meta-analysis of Western European external costs estimates,This paper analyses the external transport cost estimates that have been found in various European studies. These estimates seem at first glance to be highly dispersed| a fact which raises questions about their reliability. The article offers a list of the possible reasons for discrepancies between the various studies; differences in the specific situations studied| in the type of cost calculated| in the physical laws relating to emissions| in the measurement of values of external costs. It assesses the relative magnitude of each of these causes through a meta-analysis. It turns out that the main differences come from the specificity of the situation under review and the type of cost calculated. In comparison| differences in the laws and in the values methods have a lower importance. The conclusion is that the estimates of external costs are reliable for decision-making policies. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6616,2004,2,4,A model intercomparison study of climate change-signals in extratropical circulation,Since 1970| the observed time series of various extratropical circulation modes have revealed remarkable trends. In many studies it has been suggested that these trends may be related to global warming due to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Coupled climate model scenario experiments may give a hint of such a relationship. Here| a large model intercomparison study is presented| incorporating most state-of-the-art models of the international modeller community with GHG and GHG plus sulphate aerosol (SUL) forcing| in order to quantify the signals common to different climate models and to determine the degree of uncertainty. The extratropical circulation candidates are the Arctic oscillation (AO)| the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO)| the Aleutian low (AL) and the Antarctic oscillation (AAO). Most climate models agree in predicting positive AO and AAO trends into the 21st century| these being different from the respective results of long-term control experiments. The NAO appears to be less sensitive to radiative forcing| with slightly positive and negative trends occurring in different models. The AL tends to strengthen in several models with GHG + SUL forcing. Projecting the spatial structure of the circulation modes onto the trend patterns of mean sea-level pressure (SLP) indicates that| in particular| the AO and AAO contribute considerably to the simulated long-term trends in SLP. Intermodel variations in Northern Hemisphere SLP trends become predominantly apparent over the mountainous regions and the North Pacific. In the Southern Hemisphere| the Antarctic region is subject to large model uncertainties. The multi-decadal trends of all circulation modes except the NAO are statistically significant in the majority of the climate-change experiments. At the interannual time scale| external radiative forcing does account for a small but statistically significant part of total multi-model variability| but this part is of the same order of magnitude as the systematic differences between the models. At decadal time scales| the external impact clearly stands out from the other sources of variability. Present-day climate models mostly agree in predicting a strengthening of the annular modes AO and AAO. As all models generally project a deepening of SLP over the polar caps| time series indicative of these regions might be a more appropriate measure of the sensitivity of extratropical circulation. Copyright (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. 6645,2004,4,4,A multiple objective model to deal with economy-energy-environment interactions,An economy-energy-environment multiple objective model based on the linear structure of inter-industry production linkages is presented. Axes of evaluation consistent with sustainable energy strategies| economic growth| social welfare and environmental friendliness are explicitly considered. The aim of this study is to provide decision-makers with a comprehensive model which allows to assess environmental burdens (global warming potential and acidification potential) with respect to changes in economic activities consistent with distinct policy measures. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6654,2004,3,3,A nonlinear convolution model for the evasion of CO2 injected into the deep ocean,Deep ocean storage of CO2 captured from| for example| flue gases is being considered as a potential response option to global warming concerns. For storage to be effective| CO2 injected into the deep ocean must remain sequestered from the atmosphere for a long time. However| a fraction of CO2 injected into the deep ocean is expected to eventually evade into the atmosphere. This fraction is expected to depend on the time since injection| the location of injection| and the future atmospheric concentration of CO2. We approximate the evasion of injected CO2 at specific locations using a nonlinear convolution model including explicitly the nonlinear response of CO2 solubility to future CO2 concentration and alkalinity and Green's functions for the transport of CO2 from injection locations to the ocean surface as well as alkalinity response to seafloor CaCO3 dissolution. Green's functions are calculated from the results of a three-dimensional model for ocean carbon cycle for impulses of CO2 either released to the atmosphere or injected a locations deep in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. CO2 transport in the three-dimensional (3-D) model is governed by offline tracer transport in the ocean interior| exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere| and dissolution of ocean sediments. The convolution model is found to accurately approximate results of the 3-D model in test cases including both deep-ocean injection and sediment dissolution. The convolution model allows comparison of the CO2 evasion delay achieved by deep ocean injection with notional scenarios for CO2 stabilization and the time extent of the fossil fuel era. 6708,2004,3,2,A plan for 21st century land transport,This paper examines a methodology for reducing the CO2 generated by vehicular traffic| a major source of global warming. Climatologists say the world cannot wait 20 years for alternative fuels to start reversing the global warming trend-line| since by then considerable climate alteration and coastal damage will be manifest. The point is to dramatically reduce CO2| a by-product of internal combustion engine operations| as quickly as feasible to overcome the half-century lead-time of CO2 buildup already in the atmosphere. Since CO2 production correlates directly with vehicle mass| this paper makes the case for quickly reducing vehicle size. It also argues for re-introducing electric vehicles on a large scale| and altering the conventional highway configuration to achieve greater productivity. Fuel cells| even when fully accepted| will not improve important aspects of modern urban transport such as safety and traffic flow. 6447,2004,2,4,A possible feedback mechanism involving the arctic freshwater| the Arctic sea ice| and the north Atlantic draft,Model studies point to enhanced warming and to increased freshwater fluxes to high northern latitudes in response to global warming. In order to address possible feedbacks in the ice-ocean system in response to such changes| the combined effect of increased freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean and Arctic warming-the latter manifested as a gradual melting of the Arctic sea ice-is examined using a 3-D isopycnic coordinate ocean general circulation model. A suite of three idealized experiments is carried out: one control integration| one integration with a doubling of the modern Arctic river runoff| and a third more extreme case| where the river runoff is five times the modern value. In the two freshwater cases| the sea ice thickness is reduced by 1.5-2 m in the central Arctic Ocean over a 50-year period. The modelled ocean response is qualitatively the same for both perturbation experiments: freshwater propagates into the Atlantic Ocean and the Nordic Seas| leading to an initial weakening of the North Atlantic Drift. Furthermore| changes in the geostrophic currents in the central Arctic and melting of the Arctic sea ice lead to an intensified Beaufort Gyre| which in turn increases the southward volume transport through the Canadian Archipelago. To compensate for this southward transport of mass| more warm and saline Atlantic water is carried northward with the North Atlantic Drift. It is found that the increased transport of salt into the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas tends to counteract the impact of the increased freshwater originating from the Arctic| leading to a stabilization of the North Atlantic Drift. 6529,2004,4,3,A procedure for evaluating feedback mechanisms in coupled atmosphere/ocean climate models,To understand inter-model differences in long-term simulations of climate change| as exist between coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation models| it is necessary to first understand climate feedback mechanisms that operate within each of the various models. With this goal in mind| we have employed an 1870 to 1989 simulation| with prescribed increases in greenhouse gases| that was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 1| as a vehicle for determining two feedback processes operating within that model. These are cloud feedback and snow/ice albedo feedback. A prerequisite to evaluating feedback mechanisms is to first evaluate the direct radiative forcing| caused by the increasing greenhouse gases| which produces global warming by the model| and a procedure for doing this is presented. Cloud feedback is then evaluated by referencing the model's change in global-mean cloud-radiative forcing to the direct greenhouse-gas induced radiative forcing| and a comparable procedure is employed to determine snow/ice albedo feedback. This model produces a moderately strong negative cloud feedback and a modest positive snow/ice albedo feedback. But the main purpose of this study is to provide a reasonably simple procedure for determining both cloud feedback and snow/ice albedo feedback within coupled atmosphere/ocean GCMs. 1979,2004,4,4,A revised methodology for estimation of forest soil carbon from spatial soils and forest inventory data sets,Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents the largest constituent of the global C pool and is used by researchers in C cycling| global climate change| and soil quality studies. Spatial| pedon| and soil interpretation record databases are widely used to estimate regional SOC. This study compared published SOC estimates with estimates of mass SOC to 2 m in Maine and Minnesota using STATSGO data tables edited and filled by automated software scripts. Valid STATSGO soil property data were used to produce replacement values for invalid or missing data after grouping by soil order| MLRA| layer number| and texture. Area-weighted mass SOC was calculated using log-transformed data. Between 30% and 54% of the large rock fragment data were invalid| and between 18% and 48% of the missing OM values were replaced. The log-transformed area-weighted mass SOC to 2 m was 7.88 kg/m(2) (SD = 9.24 kg C/m(2) CV = 117.2%) for Maine and 17.38 kg/m(2) (SD = 15.30 kg C/m(2) CV = 88.1%) for Minnesota. These values were lower than earlier estimates because of the log-transformation and because our error checking increased the volume of rock fragments. The FIA database was merged with STATSGO to produce mass SOC by forest-type group. The elm-ash-cottonwood (7.22 kg C/m(2)) and the spruce-fir (17.73 kg C/m(2)) forest-type groups had the highest SOC (to 1 m depth) in Maine and Minnesota| respectively. The methods and scripts used in this study can be easily adjusted| and as they are improved| they in turn can improve the quality of data in STATSGO tables. 6465,2004,4,4,A spatial analysis of pan evaporation trends in China| 1955-2000,Pan evaporation| an indicator of potential evaporation| has decreased during the last several decades in many parts of the world. This trend is contrary to the expectation that global warming will be accompanied by an increase in terrestrial evaporation| known as the pan evaporation paradox. In this paper we present an analysis of changes in the spatial patterns of pan evaporation in China based on data from 85 weather stations from 1955 to 2000. We found that pan evaporation decreased in China from 1955 to 2000. The decrease was statistically significant in all of China's eight climatic regions except northeast China. We also found that the decrease in solar irradiance was most likely the driving force for the reduced pan evaporation in China. However| unlike in other areas of the world| in China the decrease in solar irradiance was not always accompanied by an increase in cloud cover and precipitation. Therefore we speculate that aerosols may play a critical role in the decrease of solar irradiance in China. By subdividing China into eight climatic regions| we found that the rate of decrease in pan evaporation was highest in the northwest and lowest in the southwest. Although changes in solar irradiance are the main cause of decreasing pan evaporation| water conditions influence the sensitivity of pan evaporation to the change in solar irradiance in comparing the eight climatic regions. Thus the spatial trends of pan evaporation differ from those of solar irradiance among these regions. 6558,2004,3,4,A study of tribological durability with associated environmental impacts of a domestic refrigerator,Environmental considerations have led to the phase out of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) refrigerants from the domestic refrigeration industry. One intriguing aspect is that the chlorine in CFCs is a good lubricating agent and any deterioration of system performance may adversely influence other environmental considerations. Based on this consideration| the aim of this research is to address the sustainable development of domestic refrigeration systems using the replacement refrigerant HFC-134a. The work focuses on the emissions that may arise if the electrical consumption of the product deteriorates or its durability is curtailed. Tribological characteristics on compressor components influence both of these product attributes and therefore a thorough system analysis was carried out. An in-house built experimental test rig| which monitored slight variations in the electrical power drawn by a reciprocating hermetic compressor| was used Under different experimental conditions. Furthermore| a detailed life cycle assessment on a domestic refrigerator was performed to help quantify the ensuing environmental burdens. In this way| a relation between tribological characteristics| power consumption and environmental impact was studied. This paper shows that the CFC substitute will increase friction and wear characteristics on the aluminium alloy Connecting rod and the steel gudgeon pin. These characteristics may contribute to the observed increase in the electrical energy consumption of the compressor such that the indirect global warming implications rise with HFC-134a. If the sustainable development of this product is to be ascertained then a change in refrigerants alone will not suffice. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6567,2004,4,5,A test of corrections for extraneous signals in gridded surface temperature data,Monthly surface temperature records from 1979 to 2000 were obtained from 218 individual stations in 93 countries and a linear trend coefficient determined for each site. This vector of trends was regressed on measures of local climate| as well as indicators of local economic activity (income| gross domestic product [GDP] growth rates| coal use) and data quality. The spatial pattern of trends is shown to be significantly correlated with non-climatic factors| including economic activity and sociopolitical characteristics of the region. The analysis is then repeated on the corresponding Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gridded data| and very similar correlations appear| despite previous attempts to remove non-climatic effects. The socioeconomic effects in the data are shown to add up to a net warming bias| although more precise estimation of its magnitude will require further research. 6614,2004,2,4,A tick-borne encephalitis ceiling in Central Europe has moved upwards during the last 30 years: possible impact of global warming?,The geographic/temporal pattern of cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) registered in the Czech Republic since 1970 was analysed to verify the surmise of a global warming effect. Using a geographic information system| over 8|700 notified places of infection were pinpointed on a map and overlaid with a digital elevation model to estimate the vertical distribution of the cases. Series of yearly disease ceilings (assessed alternatively as the respective maximum altitude or mean altitudes of the upper 5 or 10 cases) were tested against the null hypothesis of random elevation course and analysed for correlation with concomitant factors (yearly TBE incidence rate| mean yearly temperature| population density of small rodents and roe deer). Statistical tests proved that the TBE ceiling has gradually moved upwards in the course of the last three decades. The average rate of ascension within this period was approx. 5.4 +/- 1.7 m yearly| which corresponds well with concurrent mean temperature rising of approx. 0.036 +/- 0.007degreesC yearly| and the vertical temperature gradient of 0.0065 +/- 0.0004degreesC m(-1). The TBE-ceiling estimates significantly correlated with TBE-incidence data and the mean yearly temperature recorded 1-2 years earlier. Although TBE incidence correlated with rodent population density that was observed 1-2 years earlier| the TBE ceiling does not seem to be influenced by rodent population dynamics nor did the population dynamics correlate with mean yearly temperatures. TBE incidence as well as mean altitudes of the upper 10 cases also correlated with official data on harvested roe deer. Overall| the fluctuations of TBE incidence and TBE ceiling proved to be synchronous processes that correspond with temperature changes. Although the dependence of TBE on temperature is not a direct one and various factors could be involved| an impact of climate warming on the vertical disease distribution in Central Europe is evident. 6650,2004,3,3,Abatement of perfluorocarbons with combined plasma catalysis in atmospheric-pressure environment,Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are widely used in semiconductor industry. However| they intensely absorb infrared radiation and consequently aggravate the greenhouse effect. A combined plasma catalysis (CPC) technology is developed to destroy PFCs. For practical purpose the CPC is designed to function at room temperature and atmospheric pressure. In addition| this study compares three kinds of operations| i.e. catalysis| plasmas and CPC. Results indicate that CPC achieves the highest PFC destruction efficiency. Complete destructions are achieved for SF6 and NF3. Removal efficiencies for CF4 and C2F6 are 66 and 83%| respectively. The products formed in CPC process for CF4 and C2F6 are mainly CO| and a little CO. In contrast| the products formed in plasma process include Co-2| CO|COF2| and CF4. In brief| this study demonstrates that CPC is of a higher efficiency and less-toxic products for PFC removal compared with plasma technology at the given conditions. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6476,2004,3,3,Abatement of sulfur hexafluoride emissions from the semiconductor manufacturing process by atmospheric pressure plasmas,Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is an important gas for plasma etching processes in the semiconductor industry. SF6 intensely absorbs infrared radiation and| consequently| aggravates global warming. This study investigates SF6 abatement by nonthermal plasma technologies under atmospheric pressure. Two kinds of nonthermal plasma processes-dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) and combined plasma catalysis (CPC)-were employed and evaluated. Experimental results indicated that as much as 91% of SF6 was removed with DBDs at 20 kV of applied voltage and 150 Hz of discharge frequency for the gas stream containing 300 ppm SF6| 12% oxygen (O-2)| and 40% argon (Ar)| with nitrogen (N-2) as the carrier gas. Four additives| including Ar| O-2| ethylene (C2H4|)| and H2O(g)| are effective in enhancing SF6 abatement in the range of conditions studied. DBD achieves a higher SF6 removal efficiency than does CPC at the same operation condition. But CPC achieves a higher electrical energy utilization compared with DBD. However| poisoning of catalysts by sulfur (S)-containing species needs further investigation. SF6 is mainly converted to SOF2| SO2F4| sulfur dioxide (SO2)| oxygen difluoride (OF2)| and fluoride (F-2). They do not cause global warming and can be captured by either wet scrubbing or adsorption. This study indicates that DBD and CPC are feasible control technologies for reducing SF6 emissions. 6653,2004,5,3,Abrupt hydrographic changes in the equatorial Pacific and subtropical Atlantic from foraminiferal Mg/Ca indicate greenhouse origin for the thermal maximum at the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary,[1] The Paleocene-Eocene Boundary (PEB) was marked by an extraordinary climatic event| hypothesized to originate from a large perturbation to the carbon cycle which fueled global warming| the rapid dissociation of oceanic methane hydrates. The pattern of surface warming interpreted from existing sea surface temperature records is not consistent with a greenhouse origin for this event| which would have fueled sea surface warming globally. Although oxygen isotope (delta(18)O)-based reconstructions indicate polar warming| results for the tropics and subtropics are ambiguous because of uncertainties associated with interpreting planktonic foraminiferal delta(18)O. To remedy this| we have constructed high-resolution temperature records based on Mg/Ca of multiple species of both surface and thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera across the PEB in the equatorial Pacific and subtropical Atlantic. During the carbon isotope excursion (CIE)| surface temperatures increased by 3.5degrees-4degreesC and thermocline temperatures warmed by 3 degreesC. Estimates of surface water and thermocline salinity based on paired Mg/Ca and delta(18)O data indicate a pattern of hydrographic changes in the equatorial and subtropical oceans that is different from previously proposed| with a more vigorous hydrologic cycle during warming. The pattern of warming and salinity changes are consistent with this being a greenhouse-induced global warming event| and the timing of hydrographic changes relative to the CIE supports the hypothesis that gradual warming of intermediate/ deep waters triggered methane hydrate dissociation. 6347,2004,4,2,Acceleration technique for Milankovitch type forcing in a coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model: method and application for the holocene,A method is introduced which allows the calculation of long-term climate trends within the framework of a coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model. The change in the seasonal cycle of incident solar radiation induced by varying orbital parameters has been accelerated by factors of 10 and 100 in order to allow transient simulations over the period from the mid-Holocene until today| covering the last 7|000 years. In contrast to conventional time-slice experiments| this approach is not restricted to equilibrium simulations and is capable to utilise all available data for validation. We find that opposing Holocene climate trends in tropics and extra-tropics are a robust feature in our experiments. Results from the transient simulations of the mid-Holocene climate at 6|000 years before present show considerable differences to atmosphere-alone model simulations| in particular at high latitudes| attributed to atmosphere-ocean-sea ice effects. The simulations were extended for the time period 1800-2000 AD| where| in contrast to the Holocene climate| increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere provide for the strongest driving mechanism. The experiments reveal that a Northern Hemisphere cooling trend over the Holocene is completely cancelled by the warming trend during the last century| which brings the recent global warming into a long-term context. 1967,2004,2,4,Adaptation to temperate climates,Only model organisms live in a world of endless summer. Fitness at temperate latitudes reflects the ability of organisms in nature to exploit the favorable season| to mitigate the effects of the unfavorable season| and to make the timely switch from one life style to the other. Herein| we define fitness as Ry| the year-long cohort replacement rate across all four seasons| of the mosquito| Wyeomyia smithii| reared in its natural microhabitat in processor-controlled environment rooms. First| we exposed cohorts of W. smithii| from southern| midlatitude| and northern populations (30-50degreesN) to southern and northern thermal years during which we factored out evolved differences in photoperiodic response. We found clear evidence of evolved differences in heat and cold tolerance among populations. Relative cold tolerance of northern populations became apparent when populations were stressed to the brink of extinction; relative heat tolerance of southern populations became apparent when the adverse effects of heat could accumulate over several generations. Second| we exposed southern| midlatitude| and northern populations to natural| midlatitude day lengths in a thermally benign midlatitude thermal year. We found that evolved differences in photoperiodic response (1) prevented the timely entry of southern populations into diapause resulting in a 74% decline in fitness| and (2) forced northern populations to endure a warm-season diapause resulting in an 88% decline in fitness. We argue that reciprocal transplants across latitudes in nature always confound the effects of the thermal and photic environment on fitness. Yet| to our knowledge| no one has previously held the thermal year constant while varying the photic year. This distinction is crucial in evaluating the potential impact of climate change. Because global warming in the Northern Hemisphere is proceeding faster at northern than at southern latitudes and because this change represents an amelioration of the thermal environment and a concomitant increase in the duration of the growing season| we conclude that there should be more rapid evolution of photoperiodic response than of thermal tolerance as a consequence of global warming among northern| temperate ectotherms. 6717,2004,3,4,Advanced anodes for high-temperature fuel cells,Fuel cells will undoubtedly find widespread use in this new millennium in the conversion of chemical to electrical energy| as they offer very high efficiencies and have unique scalability in electricity-generation applications. The solid-oxide fuel cell (SOFC) is one of the most exciting of these energy technologies; it is an all-ceramic device that operates at temperatures in the range 500-1|000degreesC. The SOFC offers certain advantages over lower temperature fuel cells| notably its ability to use carbon monoxide as a fuel rather than being poisoned by it| and the availability of high-grade exhaust heat for combined heat and power| or combined cycle gas-turbine applications. Although cost is clearly the most important barrier to widespread SOFC implementation| perhaps the most important technical barriers currently being addressed relate to the electrodes| particularly the fuel electrode or anode. In terms of mitigating global warming| the ability of the SOFC to use commonly available fuels at high efficiency| promises an effective and early reduction in carbon dioxide emissions| and hence is one of the lead new technologies for improving the environment. Here| we discuss recent developments of SOFC fuel electrodes that will enable the better use of readily available fuels. 1948,2004,2,4,Age-related environmental sensitivity and weather mediated nestling mortality in white storks Ciconia ciconia,We studied environmental sensitivity and mortality related to weather inclemency in white stork nestlings Ciconia ciconia in their southern European boundary (Donana| SW Spain). The study of homeothermy acquisition and fault bars (i.e. a measure of stress on feathers) revealed that stork nestlings were specially sensitive to environmental conditions occurring before 20 d of age. Accordingly| most of nestling mortality concentrated during this sensitive period: 91% of deaths corresponded to nestlings younger than 20 d| 73% concentrating on nestlings up to 10 d-old. Nestling mortality and total breeding failure were highly variable among years| being especially high when rainy periods coincided with the early live of nestlings (between 1 April and 15 May). Maximum temperatures had a positive correlation with breeding success and nestling survival but this effect disappeared when controlling for rainfall. Our results are in agreement with previous studies conducted in other white stork populations in other latitudes. We suggest that this could be the result of a low homeothermy capacity of young nestlings jointly with an early breeding phenology that expose white storks to rain| but not to high temperatures. In the context of global climate change we suggest that the current decrease on spring rainfall could increase nestling survival while punctual rainy springs could have a negative effect on the reproduction of white storks. 6402,2004,3,2,Agricultural activities and the global carbon cycle,The observed and projected increase in emission of greenhouse gases| with attendant effects on global warming and sea level rise| have raised interests in identifying mitigation options. Terrestrial C sequestration involves capture of atmospheric C through photosynthesis and storage in biota| soil and wetlands. Land use| vegetation and soil management have a strong impact on the biotic processes of C sequestration. Losses of C from the terrestrial ecosystems are exacerbated by deforestation| biomass burning| plowing| resource-based and subsistence agriculture| and practices that mine soil fertility and deplete the soil organic C (SOC) pool. Biomass burning may also produce charcoal| which is an inert carbon with long residence time. Practices that enhance C sequestration include afforestation and reforestation| conservation tillage and mulch farming| integrated nutrient management and adopting systems with high biodiversity. Net C sequestration within an ecosystem can be assessed by taking into account the hidden C costs of fertilizers| pesticides| tillage| irrigation and other input. Restoration of degraded soils and ecosystems has a vast potential of C sequestration. The Kyoto Protocol provides for C sequestration in terrestrial sinks and C trading through Clean Development Mechanisms. Terrestrial C sequestration| besides being a win-win strategy| offers a window of opportunity for the first few decades of the 21(st) century. It is a natural process of reducing the rates of gaseous emissions while alternatives to fossil fuel take effect. 6597,2004,2,4,Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and tree growth: a basin-wide analysis,Severe drought in moist tropical forests provokes large carbon emissions by increasing forest flammability and tree mortality| and by suppressing tree growth. The frequency and severity of drought in the tropics may increase through stronger El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes| global warming| and rainfall inhibition by land use change. However| little is known about the spatial and temporal patterns of drought in moist tropical forests| and the complex relationships between patterns of drought and forest fire regimes| tree mortality| and productivity. We present a simple geographic information system soil water balance model| called RisQue (Risco de Queimada - Fire Risk) for the Amazon basin that we use to conduct an analysis of these patterns for 1996-2001. RisQue features a map of maximum plant-available soil water (PAW(max)) developed using 1565 soil texture profiles and empirical relationships between soil texture and critical soil water parameters. PAW is depleted by monthly evapotranspiration (ET) fields estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation and satellite-derived radiation inputs and recharged by monthly rain fields estimated from 266 meteorological stations. Modeled PAW to 10 m depth (PAW(10 m)) was similar to field measurements made in two Amazon forests. During the severe drought of 2001| PAW(10 m) fell to below 25% of PAW(max) in 31% of the region's forests and fell below 50% PAW(max) in half of the forests. Field measurements and experimental forest fires indicate that soil moisture depletion below 25% PAW(max) corresponds to a reduction in leaf area index of approximately 25%| increasing forest flammability. Hence| approximately one-third of Amazon forests became susceptible to fire during the 2001 ENSO period. Field measurements also suggest that the ENSO drought of 2001 reduced carbon storage by approximately 0.2 Pg relative to years without severe soil moisture deficits. RisQue is sensitive to spin-up time| rooting depth| and errors in ET estimates. Improvements in our ability to accurately model soil moisture content of Amazon forests will depend upon better understanding of forest rooting depths| which can extend to beyond 15 m. RisQue provides a tool for early detection of forest fire risk. 6545,2004,2,3,Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century,The first GCM climate change projections to include dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle produced a very significant amplification of global warming over the 21st century. Under the IS92a "business as usual" emissions scenario CO2 concentrations reached about 980 ppmv by 2100| which is about 280 ppmv higher than when these feedbacks were ignored. The major contribution to the increased CO2 arose from reductions in soil carbon because global warming is assumed to accelerate respiration. However| there was also a lesser contribution from an alarming loss of the Amazonian rainforest. This paper describes the phenomenon of Amazonian forest dieback under elevated CO2 in the Hadley Centre climate-carbon cycle model. 6604,2004,2,4,An aerial netting study of insects migrating at high altitude over England,Day and night sampling of windborne arthropods at a height of 200 m above ground was undertaken at Cardington| Bedfordshire| UK| during July 1999| 2000 and 2002| using a net supported by a tethered balloon. The results from this study are compared with those from the classic aerial sampling programmes carried out by Hardy| Freeman and colleagues over the UK and North Sea in the 1930s. In the present study| aerial netting was undertaken at night as well as daytime| and so the diel periodicity of migration could be investigated| and comparisons made with the results from Lewis and Taylor's extensive survey of flight periodicity near ground level. In some taxa with day-time emigration| quite large populations could continue in high-altitude flight after dark| perhaps to a previously underrated extent| and this would greatly increase their potential migratory range. Any trend towards increases in night temperatures| associated with global warming| would facilitate movements of this type in the UK. Observations on the windborne migration of a variety of species| particularly those of economic significance or of radar-detectable size| are briefly discussed. 6488,2004,2,4,An analysis of icelandic climate since the nineteenth century,New| long monthly series of Icelandic air pressure| temperature| precipitation and sunshine data are presented and analysed to determine possible evidence of recent climatic changes in Iceland. Climatic series are compared with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) indices; Icelandic temperature and precipitation are moderately but significantly correlated with the NAO. An updated south-north Iceland temperature index is discussed in relation to 20th century reductions in sea-ice coverage. Net warming over Iceland occurred over all long-term records from the mid 19th century to the present| consistent with observed global warming trends| but superimposed on this was a marked cooling between the 1940s and early 1980s; Icelandic warming resumed around 1985. The inid-late 20th century cooling is in agreement with observed cooling in southern Greenland| suggesting that large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation were probably responsible. The 1930s was the warmest decade of the 20th century in Iceland| in contrast to the Northern Hemisphere land average. There was a distinct 20th century dipole in temperatures between Iceland and northwestern Europe| with 1941 serving as an extreme year| i.e. cold Europe and warm Iceland and Greenland. There are also signs of a precipitation increase since the late 19th century| although this is significant for only one out of three stations. Moreover| precipitation rates exhibit a positive correlation with temperature. There were no statistically significant overall long-term changes in pressure or sunshine duration. However| there are statistically significant negative correlations of precipitation with the sunshine data. There is evidence of possible solar forcing of Icelandic temperature and pressure. Results from the analysis aid our understanding of recent and ongoing changes in Icelandic and North Atlantic climate. The results should help us interpret these changes in the context of larger scale atmospheric/subpolar variability and future climate-change predictions. Copyright (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. 6348,2004,2,3,An efficient climate forecasting method using an intermediate complexity Earth System Model and the ensemble Kalman filter,We present the implementation and results of a model tuning and ensemble forecasting experiment using an ensemble Kalman filter for the simultaneous estimation of 12 parameters in a low resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean Earth System Model by tuning it to realistic data sets consisting of Levitus ocean temperature/salinity climatology| and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric temperature/humidity reanalysis data. The resulting ensemble of tuned model states is validated by comparing various diagnostics| such as mass and heat transports| to observational estimates and other model results. We show that this ensemble has a very reasonable climatology| with the 3-D ocean in particular having comparable realism to much more expensive coupled numerical models| at least in respect of these averaged indicators. A simple global warming experiment is performed to investigate the response and predictability of the climate to a change in radiative forcing| due to 100 years of 1% per annum atmospheric CO2 increase. The equilibrium surface air temperature rise for this CO2 increase is 4.2 +/- 0.1degreesC| which is approached on a time scale of 1|000 years. The simple atmosphere in this version of the model is missing several factors which| if included| would substantially increase the uncertainty of this estimate. However. even within this ensemble| there is substantial regional variability due to the possibility of collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC)| which switches off in more than one third of the ensemble members. For these cases. the regional temperature is not only 3-5degrees colder than in he warmed worlds where the THC remains switched on. but is also 1-2degreesC colder than the current climate. Our results. which illustrate how objective probabilistic projections of future climate change can be efficiently generated| indicate a substantial uncertainty in the long-term future of the THC| and therefore the regional climate of western Europe. However. this uncertainty is only apparent in long-term integrations. with the initial transient response being similar across the entire ensemble. Application of this ensemble Kalman filtering technique to more complete climate models would improve the objectivity of probabilistic forecasts and hence should lead to significantly increased understanding of the uncertainty of our future climate. 6659,2004,3,3,An environmental perspective of lead-free solder based on damage assessment of LCIA,LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) has been attracted and been already spread to the public as a technique evaluating the environmental impacts of product life cycle. LCA case study for lead-free solder| which is expected as eco-material has already been performed| but most of these studies are focused on LCI (Life Cycle Inventory) and characterization in LCIA (Life Cycle Impact Assessment). In the case of the assessment of solder| the trade-off relationship between the human toxicity caused by the exposure of lead and global warming caused by the increase of energy use seems important. Conventional LCA case studies are difficult to solve this trade-off relationship| because LCI and characterization will not compare the seriousness of these environmental impacts. Based on the above background| we conducted LCIA case study of lead-free solder using LIME (Life-cycle Impact assessment Method based on Endpoint modeling). We concentrated on the damage assessment for human health in order to solve the trade-off relationship between the impact categories. DALY (Disability Adjusted Life Year) is applied as the damage indicator in this study. It can be concluded that damage assessment enables to evaluate reasonably with comparing the several health impacts based on the scientific knowledge. 6602,2004,4,4,An experimental study of SF(5)CF(3) by electron energy loss spectroscopy| VUV photo-absorption and photoelectron spectroscopy,A comprehensive study of the spectroscopy of trifluoromethyl sulphur pentafluoride| SF(5)CF(3) is reported. A high resolution VUV photoabsorption spectrum of SF(5)CF(3)| has been measured using synchrotron radiation in the range of 5.5-10.8eV (225 > lambda > 115nm) and compared with electron energy loss spectroscopy. Excited states are reported in the 8.5-22.5 eV region. Ionic states are probed by HeI photoelectron spectroscopy. The photolysis of the compound has also been investigated to give an estimate of the lifetime in the atmosphere. It is estimated that the atmospheric lifetime of SF5CF3 is of the order of 1000 years; the calculated global warming potential (GWP) is found to be 18|500. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6722,2004,3,3,An input-output energy analysis in greenhouse vegetable production: a case study for Antalya region of Turkey,The aim of this research was to examine the energy equivalents of inputs and output in greenhouse vegetable production in the Antalya province of Turkey. For this purpose| the data for the production of four greenhouse crops (tomato| cucumber| eggplant and pepper) were collected in eighty-eight greenhouse farms by questionnaire. The results revealed that cucumber production was the most energy intensive of among the four crops investigated. Cucumber production consumed a total of 134.77 GJha(-1) followed by tomato with 127.32 GJha(-1). The consumption of energy by eggplants and pepper were 98.68 and 80.25 GJha(-1)| respectively. The output-input energy ratio for greenhouse tomato| pepper| cucumber and eggplant were estimated to be 1.26| 0.99| 0.76 and 0.61| respectively. This indicated an intensive use of inputs in greenhouse vegetable production not accompanied by increase in the final product. This can lead to problems associated with these inputs such as global warming| nutrient loading and pesticide pollution. Therefore| there is a need to pursue a new policy to force producers to undertake energy efficient practices to increase the yield without diminishing natural resources. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2042,2004,4,3,An inventory-based carbon budget for forest and woodland ecosystems of Turkey,Environmental monitoring of national-level comparisons of CO2 emissions is needed to quantify sources and sinks of carbon ( C) in national ecosystems. In this study| a national forest inventory database was used to estimate the past and current pools and fluxes of C in deciduous and coniferous forest and woodland ecosystems (20.7 x 10(6) ha) of Turkey. Growing C stock was 12.63 t C ha(-1) in 1960 and 16.55 t C ha(-1) in 1995. Total C store in the whole live woody biomass was estimated at 22.77 t C ha(-1) in 1996. The total flux of C from the atmosphere into the forest and woodland ecosystems driven by primary productivity was about 1.46 t C ha(-1) (or 30.2 Mt C) in 1996. The estimated net release of C from the forest and woodland ecosystems of Turkey to the atmosphere was about 1.34 t C ha(-1) ( or 21.5 Mt C) in 1996. When C released was taken into account| net ecosystem sequestration (NES) resulted in 0.12 t C ha(-1) per year. Such analytical tools as national forest C budgets are needed to improve our preventive and mitigative strategies for dealing with global climate change. 6373,2004,3,4,An LP-model to analyse economic and ecological sustainability on Dutch dairy farms: model presentation and application for experimental farm "de Marke",Farm level modelling can be used to determine how farm management adjustments and environmental policy affect different sustainability indicators. In this paper indicators were included in a dairy farm LP (linear programming)-model to analyse the effects of environmental policy and management measures on economic and ecological sustainability on Dutch dairy farms. For analysing ecological sustainability| seven indicators were included in the model: eutrophication potential| nitrate concentration in groundwater| water use| acidification potential| global warming potential| terrestrial ecotoxicity| and aquatic ecotoxicity. Net farm income was included for measuring economic sustainability. The farm structure of "De Marke" formed the basis for three optimisations: (1) basis situation without environmental policy| (2) situation with Dutch environmental policy for 2004| and (3) situation with farm management measures applied at "De Marke". The Dutch environmental policy was included to comply with the EC nitrate directive. It resulted in lower fertiliser use and consequently in a decrease in sales of maize. This led to a decrease in net farm income of ca. EURO2500. Including this policy improved most used ecological indicators (except for ecotoxicity) and showed to be an effective tool to reduce the environmental impact of dairy farming. Adapting the model with farm management measures applied at experimental farm "De Marke" resulted in even better ecological performance compared to the situation with environmental policy. Nonetheless this increase in ecological performance led to a considerably lower net farm income (EURO14|500). (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6539,2004,3,4,Analysis of anions in hydrofluoro ethers by ion chromatography,Hydrofluoro ethers (HFES) are considered to be an ideal cleaning solvent in applications like vapor degreasing and wet cleaning. It is also a good solvent replacement for CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons)| HCFCs (hydrochlorofluorocarbons)| HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons) and chlorinated solvents because they have a short atmospheric lifetime and low global warming potential. Based upon their properties| hydrofluoro ethers are ideally suited for the demands of the electronics industry. However| the electronics industry requires these solvents to have high purity| especially in the area of residual anions. This paper will present information on an extraction methodology for the transfer of anions from the hydrofluoro ether to water. Then| an analytical method utilizing ion chromatography that is capable of detection of 10 anions (fluoride. acetate| formate| chloride| nitrite| bromide| nitrate| sulfate| oxalate| and phosphate) in the part per billion level will be demonstrated. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1986,2004,4,4,Analysis of the conflict between omission and commission in low spatial resolution dichotomic thematic products: The Pareto Boundary,During the last few years| the remote sensing community has been trying to address the need for global synthesis to support policy makers on issues such as deforestation or global climate change. Several global thematic products have been derived from large datasets of low-resolution remotely sensed data| the latter providing the best trade-off between spatial resolution| temporal resolution and cost. However| a standard procedure for the validation of such products has not been developed yet. This paper proposes a methodology| based on statistical indices derived from the widely used Error Matrix| to deal with the specific issue of the influence of the low spatial resolution of the dataset on the accuracy of the end-product| obtained with hard classification approaches. In order to analyse quantitatively the trade-off between omission and commission errors| we suggest the use of the 'Pareto Boundary'| a method rooted in economics theory applied to decisions with multiple conflicting objectives. Starting from a high-resolution reference dataset| it is possible to determine the maximum user and producer's accuracy values (i.e. minimum omission and commission errors) that could be attained jointly by a low-resolution map. The method has been developed for the specific case of diebotomic classifications and it has been adopted in the evaluation of burned area maps derived from SPOT-VGT with Landsat ETM+ reference data. The use of the Pareto Boundary can help to understand whether the limited accuracy of a low spatial resolution map is given by poor performance of the classification algorithm or by the low resolution of the remotely sensed data| which had been classified. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 6547,2004,2,4,Analyzing global trends of different cloud types and their potential impacts on climate by using the ISCCP D2 dataset,The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D2 dataset is used to study the global distribution of low| middle and high cloud amounts and their trends of 1983-2001. Evidences have shown that global warming has accelerated over the past 20 a and the 1990s was the warmest decade in the instrumental records since 1861. Trends of various clouds amounts over this period are analyzed by employing the linear regression method. The results show that global mean total cloud amounts| in general| have tended to reduce over the past 20 a. But there are slightly increasing by about 2% before 1987 and decreasing by about 4% since then. Cloudiness trends of both low and high clouds decrease while increase for the middle cloud. And there exist remarkable discrepancies in different regions. The preliminary analyses suggest that it is likely that the cloud change occurring over the past 20 a is a positive feedback to global warming. 6357,2004,2,4,Antigua revisited: the impact of climate change on sand and nest temperatures at a hawksbill turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting beach,Whether a turtle embryo develops into a male or a female depends| as with many other reptiles| on the temperature during incubation of the eggs. With sea turtles| warm temperatures produce 100% females. Therefore| global warming has the potential to drastically alter their sex ratios. Air temperatures on Antigua have increased by 0.7degreesC over the last 35 years. Measurements in both the sand and the clutches laid by hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) at Pasture Bay| Antigua| show that for important parts of the nesting season temperatures are already above the level producing 50% of each sex (pivotal level). Comparisons are made to sand temperature measurements taken on this beach in 1989 and 1990. It is estimated that fewer males were produced in 2003 than in the previous years. Recommendations are made for close monitoring of the fertility of eggs and for research on any turtles nesting at cooler times of year. 2008,2004,4,3,Appropriate measures for conservation of terrestrial carbon stocks - Analysis of trends of forest management in Southeast Asia,The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. Additional to various goods and services being provided to human beings| forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a-major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the management regime| forests can thus be either a sink| or a source of atmospheric carbon. Southeast Asia or ASEAN comprises 10 countries of different cultures and political background. Rapid economic development and fast-growing population in the region have raised much concern over the use of natural resources| especially forest resources. This study aims at finding the appropriate measures for sustainable use and management of tropical forests on a long-term basis. Between 1990 and 2000| about 2.3 million ha of forest were cleared every year and lost to other forms of land use. In terms of carbon emissions| a net amount of approximately 465 million t per year were released to the atmosphere over the same period| which amounts to 29% of the global net carbon release from deforestation worldwide. This study provides an approach to analyzing the implications of alternative forest and land management options on forest carbon stocks. This is done in three steps: First| observed trends in land use are expressed in terms of a model in order to create a scenario for the period 1980-2050. Second| forest management practices and timber production rates are analyzed and three management scenarios are created: (1) continuing the current rate of exploitation| (2) management for long-term economic gains| and (3) climate-beneficial management. Third| the impact of the three scenarios on regional carbon storage is estimated on the basis of a carbon balance model. Comparing the additional rate of carbon sequestration of scenario (3) over scenario (2)| and taking into account differing management costs| we also discuss a framework for industrialized countries to invest in carbon credits in the region in order to fulfil their commitments under present and future climate protection agreements. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1932,2004,2,3,Are climate change impacts already affecting tropical forest biomass?,Tropical forests contain large stocks of carbon and any change in the balance of inflows and outflows of carbon to the biomass of standing forest has potentially important consequences for the global carbon cycle and related greenhouse warming| as well as for tropical biodiversity. Despite unresolved controversies over observed changes in biomass and gas fluxes| current observations indicate the likelihood that additional climate change would have substantial impacts on tropical forests and would reinforce their contributions to global climate change. Climate change impacts are already affecting tropical forest biomass. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2049,2004,2,4,Arrival and departure dates,We review the current evidence that changes in arrival and departure dates of migratory birds have taken place| and the relationship of these changes to climate variability. There is little doubt that the timing of spring migration closely follows weather variations. This is more evident and/or stronger in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants| but the latter have also responded to climate change. Changes of spring arrival in birds depend on climate impacts at different latitudes along the route from wintering to breeding areas. Therefore| also migratory strategy| e.g.| stopover tactics and migratory routes| may be under selective forces due to climate change. Changes in breeding environment depend on the climate there. The discrepancy between en route and breeding time impacts can induce poor fit between annual cycles of birds and their resources. Changes of timing of autumn migration are more variable and they are less well understood. Some species have advanced and others postponed their autumn migration. As long as seasonal variation of environmental constraints at species level remains elusive we cannot predict which species will delay autumn departure and which will advance it in synchrony with spring events. The net result of changes of phenology has often been the lengthening of the summer part of the annual cycle. Because the first analyses of changes of both migration periods and time span between them are based on bird station data| it is still too early to generalise this variation against ecological traits of species. Lengthening of time spent in the breeding area may relax some time constraints set by seasonality by allowing more time to breed and moult| but just the opposite is also possible depending on latitude and temperature regime at which changes are taking place. 2018,2004,2,4,Assessing impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone tracks,A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows and in formation locations. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion| composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift| is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best-track data by removing the steering flow. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The approach is applied to assessing the potential impacts of global warming on TC tracks in the WNP. The possible changes in the large-scale steering flows are taken from the output wind fields of two Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global warming experiments and possible changes in the TC formation locations are considered by shifting the formation locations as a whole. The GFDL experiments suggested that the changes in the future large-scale steering flows are dominated by the easterly anomalies in the Tropics and westerly anomalies in the midlatitudes with the enhanced northward component during the period of 2030-59. Based on the assessments using two different ways to reduce climate model biases| the prevailing TC tracks shift slightly southwestward during the period of 2000-29| but northeastward during the period of 2030-59. More TCs will take a recurving track and move northeastward during the period of 2030-59. The El Nino-like climate change predicted in many climate models can significantly enhance the track changes if the TC formation locations in the WNP shift eastward as a whole. 6326,2004,4,4,Atmospheric chemistry of CF3CFHCF2OCF3 and CF3CFHCF2OCF2H: Reaction with Cl atoms and OH radicals| degradation mechanism| and global warming potentials,Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) smog chamber techniques were used to measure k(Cl + CF3CFHCF2OCF3) = (4.09 +/- 0.42) x 10(-17)| k(OH + CF3CFHCF2OCF3) = (1.43 +/- 0.28) x 10(-15)| k(Cl + CF3CFHCF2OCF2H) = (6.89 +/- 1.29) x 10(-17)| and k(OH + CF3CFHCF2OCF2H) = (1.79 +/- 0.34) x 10(-15) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) in 700 Torr of N-2/O-2 diluent at 296 K. The atmospheric lifetimes of CF3CFHCF2OCF3 and CF3CFHCFOCF2H are approximately 40 and 32 years| respectively. Chlorine atom-initiated oxidation of CF3CFHCF2OCF3 and CF3CFHCF2OCF2H gives CF3C(O)F in molar yields of 82 +/- 5% and 96 +/- 6%| respectively. The 100-year time horizon global warming potentials of CF3CFHCF2OCF3 and CF3CFHCF2OCF2H relative to CO2 are 4530 and 4340. Results are discussed with respect to the atmospheric chemistry of hydrofluoroethers. 6626,2004,3,4,Atmospheric chemistry of CH3O(CF2CF2O)(n)CH3 (n=1-3): Kinetics and mechanism of oxidation initiated by Cl atoms and OH radicals| IR spectra| and global warmin potentials,Smog chambers equipped with FTIR spectrometers were used to study the Cl atom and OH radical initiated oxidation of CH3O(CF2CF2O)(n)CH3 (n = 1-3) in 720 +/- 20 Torr of air at 296 +/- \\3 K. Relative rate techniques were used to measure k(Cl + CH3O(CF2CF2O)(n)CH3) (3.7 +/- 10.7) x 10(-13) and k(OH + CH3O(CF2CF2O)(n)CH3) = (2.9 +/- 0.5) x 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) leading to an estimated atmospheric lifetime of 2 years for CH3O(CF2CF2O)|CH3. The Cl initiated oxidation of CH3O(CF2CF2O)|CH3 in air diluent gives CH3O(CF2CF2O)(n)C(O)H in a yield which is indistinguishable from 100%. Further oxidation leads to the diformate| H(O)CO(CF2CF2O)(n)C(O)H. A rate constant of k(Cl + CH3O(CF2CF2O)(n)CHO) = (1.81 +/- 0.36) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s-1 was determined. Quantitative infrared spectra for CH3O(CF2CF2O)(n)CH3 (n = 1-3) were recorded and used to estimate halocarbon global warming potentials of 0.051| 0.058| and 0.055 (100 year time horizon| relative to CFC-11) for CH3OCF2CF2OCH3| CH3O(CF2CF2O)(2)CH3| and CH3O(CF2CF2O)(3)CH3| respectively. Results are discussed with respect to the atmospheric chemistry of hydrofluoropolyethers (HFPEs). 6344,2004,4,4,Atmospheric gas-phase degradation and global warming potentials of 2-fluoro ethanol| 2|2-difluoroethanol| and 2|2|2-trifluoroethanol,The vapour phase reactions of 2-fluoroethanol| 2|2-difluoroethanol| and 2|2|2-trifluoroethanol with OH radicals and Cl atoms were studied at 298 K and 1013 mbar using long-path FTIR detection. The following reaction rate coefficients were determined by the relative rate method: k(298)(OH+CH2FCH2OH)=(1.42+/-0.11) x 10(-12)| k(298)|(OH + CHF2CH2OH)=(4.51+/-0.06) x 10(-13)| k(298)|(OH+CF|CH2OH)=(1.23+/-0.06) x 10(-13)| k(298)(Cl+CH2FCH2OH)= (2.67+/-0.3) x 10(-11)| k(298)(Cl+CHF2CH2OH)=(3.12+/-0.06) x 10(-12)| and k(298)(Cl+CF3CH2OH)=(7.42+/-0.12)x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1); the reported uncertainties represent 3sigma from the statistical analyses and do not include any systematic errors or uncertainties in the reference rate coefficients. Quantitative infrared cross-sections of the title compounds at 298 K are reported in the 4000-50cm(-1) region. A 3D chemistry transport model was applied to calculate the atmospheric distributions and lifetimes of the title compounds; the global and yearly averaged lifetimes were calculated as 20 days for CH2FCH2OH| 40 days for CHF2CH2OH| and 117 days for CF3CH2OH. Radiative forcing calculations were carried out assuming either constant vertical profiles or the distribution derived from the chemistry transport model. The Global Warming Potentials for the title compounds are insignificant compared to| e.g. CFC-11 (CC1(3)F). (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6693,2004,2,4,Australian microhylid frogs (Cophixalus and Austrochaperina): phylogeny| taxonomy| calls| distributions and breeding biology,Despite a considerable surge in herpetological research in Australia over the last couple of decades the Australian microhylid frogs (Cophixalus and Austrochaperina) remain relatively poorly known. Herein I present the results of extensive fieldwork and molecular| morphological and call analysis with the aim of resolving taxonomy| call variation and distributions| and increasing our understanding of breeding biology. Analysis of 943 base pairs of mitochondrial 16S rRNA and 12S rRNA provides a well supported phylogeny that is largely consistent with current taxonomy. Levels of divergence between species are substantial and significant phylogeographic structuring is evident in C. ornatus| C. neglectus and C. aenigma| sp. nov. The description of C. concinnus was based on a mixed collection of two species from Thornton Peak and a new species is described to resolve this. C. aenigma| sp. nov.| is described from high-elevation (>750 m) rainforest across the Carbine| Thornton| Finnigan and Bakers Blue Mountain uplands| north-east Queensland. C. concinnus is redescribed as a highly distinct species restricted to rainforest and boulder fields at the summit of Thornton Peak (>1100 m). Despite protection in Daintree National Park in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area| predictions of the impact of global warming suggest C. concinnus to be of very high conservation concern ( Critically Endangered| IUCN criteria). The mating call of two species ( C. mcdonaldi and C. exiguus) is described for the first time and high levels of call variation within C. ornatus| C. neglectus| C. hosmeri| C. aenigma and Austrochaperina fryi are presented. Such variation is often attributable to genetically divergent lineages| altitudinal variation and courtship; however| in some instances ( particularly within C. hosmeri) the source or function of highly distinct calls at a site remains obscure. Molecular| morphological and call analyses allow the clarification of species distributions| especially in the northern mountains of the Wet Tropics. Notes are presented on the breeding biology of C. aenigma| C. bombiens| C. concinnus| C. exiguus| C. infacetus| C. mcdonaldi| C. monticola| C. neglectus| C. ornatus and C. saxatilis| which are largely consistent with previous accounts: small terrestrial clutches usually attended by a male. Courtship behaviour in C. ornatus is described and the first records of multiple clutching in Australian microhylids are presented (for C. ornatus and C. infacetus). 6486,2004,2,4,Austro-boreal disjunctions: A remarkable biogeographical pattern illustrated by Nan Ao Island| Guangdong| China,Aim To document disjunct| insular populations of animals separated from similar conspecifics distributed to the north| inland and upland| and compare this pattern with that historically described for northern Florida and the Florida Keys islands. Location Nan Ao Island is on the Tropic of Cancer 117degrees E in the South China Sea| eastern Guangdong Province| China. There are archipelagos of islets extending south-east| and several coastal islets around Nan Ao. Methods Five field surveys were made in 1999-2001. Voucher specimens were tagged| catalogued| and deposited in major museum collections. The comparable Floridian disjunct pattern was researched and described in overview. Results Five species - a toad| two lizards and two snakes - collected on Nan Ao and three satellite islands were added to the two previously documented species - a lizard and a snake - that fit the austro-boreal disjunct pattern. One lizard and one snake are minor range extensions of a hundred or few km. One snake's Nan Ao population is disjunct by about 450 km and one lizard's by about 550 km. The small| semi-fossorial| short-legged toad is the most notable| separated from the main area of its range by about 800 km. This is similar to the greatest distance between north Floridian and Keys disjunct populations. Main conclusions (1) Seven Nan Ao species of terrestrial vertebrates are isolated and disjunct from conspecifics found to the north| upland and inland; this compares to five species showing a similar north Florida to Florida Keys pattern. (2) The Nan Ao species have no conspecifics known from the intervening area whereas four of the five Floridian species have conspecific| but dissimilar| populations in the gap. (3) Nan Ao and its satellite islets were high points on a large coastal plain at glacial maximum. (4) Holocene sea level rise and concomitant global warming may have isolated the Nan Ao relicts that had continuous distributions at glacial maximum. (5) The intervening mainland conspecific populations may have been replaced by tropical species that moved north along the mainland but failed to colonize the islands. (6) If so| significant adaptation to a warmer climate must have occurred to enable survival of the Nan Ao relicts to the present. 6732,2004,2,4,Behavioural responses of moose to thermal conditions in the boreal forest,Among ungulate species living in boreal regions| moose (Alces alces) are most likely to suffer from heat stress since they have a relatively low upper critical temperature (14 degreesC in summer and -5 degreesC in winter). We tested the hypothesis that moose adopt behaviours to reduce thermoregulatory costs. We predicted that moose exposed to high intensities of solar radiation or high air temperatures would 1) seek a type of vegetation association that provides thermal shelter and 2) reduce activity. We also predicted that these behaviours would be most evident in summer. Thermal-shelter use and activity of 30 free-ranging moose were measured over 3 y in a 940-km(2) study area of boreal forest using GPS telemetry collars. The effect of solar radiation and air temperature on thermal-shelter use and activity were assessed using logistic and multiple regression analyses. Habitat use and activity rates of moose were related to air temperature but not solar radiation. The probability of finding moose in thermal shelters increased with air temperature in summer and fall. Moose activity did not decrease as air temperature increased| but it increased at night during hot periods. As expected| moose response to thermal conditions was most noted in summer. Our results suggest that moose reduce exposure to thermal stress by using thermal shelters during the day and by increasing nocturnal activity. These behavioural adaptations allow moose to cope with thermal stress on a small temporal scale. Negative effects of heat stress could be important in areas where air temperatures are very high for extended periods of time or where thermal cover is scarce. 6416,2004,3,2,Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas,This paper considers the possible benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas with a strong emphasis on sea-level rise as this is one of the most certain consequences of human-induced global warming. There is a long-term 'commitment to sea-level rise' due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system and hence the response of sea-level rise to mitigation is slower than for other climate factors. Therefore| while climate stabilisation reduces coastal impacts during the 21st century| compared to unmitigated emissions| the largest benefits may occur in the 22nd century (and beyond). The results of the analysis suggest that a mixture of adaptation and mitigation policies need to be considered for coastal areas| as this will provide a more robust response to human-induced climate change than either policy in isolation. This requires the joint evaluation of mitigation and adaptation in coastal areas| ideally using a probabilistic risk-based methodology| which would be a departure from existing analyses. Because of the long time constants involved such assessments need to continue beyond 2100 to provide the full implications of the different policy choices. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6351,2004,3,4,Biodegradable packaging life-cycle assessment,SRI Consulting's Process Economics Program (PEP) was commissioned by its clients to undertake a lifecycle assessment (LCA) for the purpose of comparing a biodegradable polymer with a conventional commodity polymer in packaging applications. Biodegradable polymers offer the potential of addressing a wide range of environmental concerns associated with conventional polymers such as greenhouse gas emissions and sustainability. LCA is a tool specifically developed for assessing the overall environmental burden of a product including the system used for manufacturing it and its end-of-life treatment. This paper provides a cradle-to-grave LCA of two polymers that may be used in food packaging applications: polylactide (PLA)| which is a biodegradable polymer derived from corn; and polypropylene (PP)| which is primarily derived from natural gas in the United States. An inventory analysis of the PLA and PP systems is presented. An impact assessment focused on global warming is also provided. Although measured field or facility data are preferred for a rigorous LCA| PEP data can provide a reasonable basis when measured data are unavailable. Energy inventories and greenhouse gas emissions are readily derived from PEP data| but other potentially relevant impact indicators are not. (C) 2004 American Institute of Chemical Engineers. 2061,2004,2,4,Biodiversity| biosphere reserves| and the big apple - A study of the New York Metropolitan Region,The objectives of this article were to assess the dimensions of biodiversity-urban society interactions within the New York Metropolitan Region| a 31-county area with a population of 21.5 million| and to explore pathways to reconcile dysfunctional relationships between these two ever-entwined systems. The article builds on the premise that urban biodiversity exists at a crucial nexus of ecological and societal interactions| linking local| regional| and global scales| and that urban ecologies are projected to become even more dynamic in the future| particularly as a result of global climate change. The pathway proposed to reconcile the biodiversity-urban society relationships is the incorporation of biosphere reserve strategies into regional environmental planning efforts focused on the New York/New Jersey Harbor/Estuary specifically and on the greater New York Metropolitan Region in general. The concepts of the "ecological footprint" and vulnerability to global environmental change are used to analyze the current interactions between biodiversity and urban society| and to evaluate the efficacy of adopting biosphere reserve strategies in the region. New York has long been at the forefront of American environmentalism and landscape planning. Coupled with this history is a still small but growing interest in regional environmental planning efforts (e.g.| the U.S. EPA Harbor Estuary Program) and green infrastructure (e.g.| the 2002 Humane Metropolis Conference organized by the Ecological Cities Project). The research presented here aims to contribute to these nascent activities. As a megacity| New York may serve as a model for other major cities of the world. 6666,2004,3,2,Bioenergy| global warming| and environmental impacts,Bioenergy is one of the forms of renewable energy. Bioenergy| the energy from biomass| has been used for thousands of years| ever since people started burning wood to cook food| and today wood is still our largest biomass resource for bioenergy. The use of bioenergy has the potential to greatly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Replacing fossil fuels with energy from biomass has several distinct environmental implications. If biomass is harvested at a rate that is sustainable| using it for energy purposes does not result in any net increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide| a greenhouse gas. States have played a leading role in protecting the environment by reducing emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs)| and state emissions are significant on a global scale. CO2 and CO are the main greenhouse gases associated with global warning. At the present time| coal is responsible for 30-40% of world CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. SO2 and NOx contribute to acid rain. Carbon assessments can play an important role in a strategy to control carbon dioxide emissions while raising revenue. 2026,2004,3,4,Biomass energy technologies for rural infrastructure and village power - Opportunities and challenges in the context of global climate change concerns,The potential and role of biomass resources in developing countries for addressing global climate change concerns are highlighted using India as a case study. Promotion of technologies| which use biomass more efficiently| is seen as a key strategy to integrate the concerns of both developing countries and developed countries. The role of various biomass technologies for improving rural infrastructure and village power is discussed in detail. A vision of establishing and running a chain of rural energy service companies| operating with a basket of devices and technologies| under the general provisions of CDM| is examined for commercialization and mainstrearning of biomass technologies which have achieved reasonable levels of maturity. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6696,2004,4,3,Boiling points of halogenated aliphatic compounds: A quantitative structure-property relationship for prediction and validation,Halogenated aliphatic compounds have many technical uses| but substances within this group are also ubiquitous environmental pollutants that can affect the ozone layer and contribute to global warming. The establishment of quantitative structure-property relationships is of interest not only to fill in gaps in the available database but also to validate experimental data already acquired. The three-dimensional structures of 240 compounds were modeled with molecular mechanics prior to the generation of empirical descriptors. Two bilinear projection methods| principal component analysis (PCA) and partial-least-squares regression (PLSR)| were used to identify outliers. PLSR was subsequently used to build a multivariate calibration model by extracting the latent variables that describe most of the covariation between the molecular structure and the boiling point. Boiling points were also estimated with an extension of the group contribution method of Stein and Brown. 6740,2004,3,3,Bounding of carbon dioxide in flue gases via carbonation process,Carbonation is a stabilization of carbon dioxide (CO2) by solidification process. In order to prevent rapid climate change| it will be necessary to stabilize CO2 as carbonate by the carbonation process. Carbonation of the widely occurring mineral olivine (Mg2SiO4) converts CO2 into an environmentally benign mineral magnesite (MgCO3). The availability of a CO2 fixation technology would serve as insurance in case global warming causes severe restrictions on CO2 emissions. The yield of carbonation increased with increasing temperature. The rate of carbonation conversion sharply increased in initial 20 min and then reduced and reached a plateau value after about 40 min. The carbonation conversion with MgO is higher than that of CaO. 6707,2004,2,4,Breeding dates and reproductive performance,Much of the evidence for the effects of climate change on birds comes from studies of the timing of breeding. Many species of birds start to lay eggs earlier in years with warmer temperature| and approximately 60% of studies have shown long-term advances in laying dates consistent with global warming. Nevertheless| the magnitude of the responses differs among species and locations in ways that we do not yet understand. Some of the variation is probably due to differences in: (1) local temperature changes| (2) diet| (3) body size| (4) life history (migratory or resident; number of broods per season) and (5) the time scales over which species acquire resources for breeding. Although earlier laying of clutches is often associated with larger clutch sizes and greater production of young| the effects of earlier laying on reproductive performance are less clear. In the future| we need to establish large-scale collaborative studies to monitor the effects of climate change over large areas and to determine how climate change affects the reproductive performance of species throughout their ranges. 1982,2004,2,4,Cadmium effects on mitochondrial function are enhanced by elevated temperatures in a marine poikilotherm| Crassostrea virginica Gmelin (Bivalvia : Ostreidae),Marine intertidal mollusks| such as oysters| are exposed to multiple stressors in estuaries| including varying environmental temperature and levels of trace metals| which may interactively affect their physiology. In order to understand the combined effects of cadmium and elevated temperature on mitochondrial bioenergetics of marine mollusks| respiration rates and mitochondrial volume changes were studied in response to different cadmium levels (0-1000 mumol l(-1)) and temperatures (15| 25 and 35degreesC) in isolated mitochondria from the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica acclimated at 15degreesC. It was found that both cadmium and temperature significantly affect mitochondrial function in oysters. Elevated temperature had a rate-enhancing effect on state 3 (ADP-timulated) and states 4 and 4+ (representative of proton leak) respiration| and the rate of temperature-dependent increase was higher for states 4 and 4+ than for state 3 respiration. Exposure of oyster mitochondria to 35degreesC resulted in a decreased respiratory control and phosphorylation efficiency (P/O ratio) compared to that of the-acclimation temperature (15degreesC)| while an intermediate temperature (25degreesC) had no effect. Cadmium exposure did not lead to a significant volume change in oyster mitochondria in vitro. Low levels of cadmium (1-5 mumol l(-1)) stimulated the rate of proton leak in oyster mitochondria| while not affecting ADP-stimulated state 3 respiration. In contrast| higher cadmium levels (10-50 mumol l(-1)) had little or no effect on proton leak| but significantly inhibited state 3 respiration by 40-80% of the control rates. Elevated temperature increased sensitivity of oyster mitochondria to cadmium leading to an early inhibition of ADP-stimulated respiration and an onset of complete mitochondrial uncoupling at progressively lower cadmium concentrations with increasing temperature. Enhancement of cadmium effects by elevated temperatures suggests that oyster populations subjected to elevated temperatures due to seasonal warming or global climate change may become more susceptible to trace metal pollution| and vice versa. 6625,2004,2,4,Can aerosols spin down the water cycle in a warmer and moister world?,[1] Surface observations show puzzling evidence of reduced solar warming and concurrent increasing temperature during the last four decades. Based on climate simulations with the general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute in Hamburg we suggest that the interactions of greenhouse gas forcing plus direct| semi-direct and indirect aerosol effects on clouds explain this paradox. We argue that reductions in surface solar radiation due to clouds and aerosols are only partly offset by enhanced down-welling longwave radiation from the warmer and moister atmosphere. We conclude that the radiative imbalance at the surface leads to weaker latent and sensible heat fluxes and hence to reductions in evaporation and precipitation despite global warming. 1949,2004,4,2,Can climate data from METEOSAT improve wildlife distribution models?,Global climate change generated by human activities is likely to affect agroecosystems in several ways: reinforcing intensification in northern and western Europe| and extensification in the Mediterranean countries. If we are to predict the consequences of global warming for wildlife| distribution models have to include climate data. The METEOSAT temporal series from EWBMS offers an attractive alternative to using climatic surfaces derived from ground stations. The aim of this paper is to test whether this climatic satellite data can improve the distribution models obtained previously by Suarez-Seoane et al. using habitat variables for three agro-steppe bird species: great bustard| little bustard and calandra lark in Spain. Rainfall| radiation balance| evapotranspiration and soil moisture images were incorporated together with the other variables used as predictors in the published stepwise GAM models. Changes in the predicted distributions from the habitat only and climate-habitats models were assessed by reference to the CORINE land cover categories. Inclusion of climatic variables from METEOSAT led to statistically superior models for all three species. There were large differences in the climatic variables selected and the original variables dropped among the species. Evapotranspiration variables were the most frequently selected. Maps of the differences between the habitat and climate-habitat models showed very different patterns for the three species. Inclusion of climate variables led to a wider range of land cover types being deemed suitable. Despite the statistical superiority of models| care is needed in deciding whether to use climatic variables because they may emphasize the fundamental rather than the realized niche. Used together| however| habitat and climate models can provide new insights into factors limiting species distributions and how they may respond to climate change. 6505,2004,3,4,Capture of CO2 from combustion gases in a fluidized bed of CaO,Experiments in a pilot-scale fluidized-bed reactor have been carried out to investigate the carbonation reaction of CaO| as a potential method for CO2 capture from combustion flue gases at high-temperatures. Results show that CO2 capture efficiencies are very high| while there is a sufficient fraction of CaO in the bed reacting in the fast reaction regime. The total capture capacity of the bed decays with the number of carbonation-calcination cycles. The experimental CO2 concentration profiles measured inside the bed during the fast reaction period are interpreted with the KL fluid bed model| by supplying information on. sorbent deactivation from laboratory tests. It is concluded that a fluidized bed of CaO can be a suitable reactor to achieve very effective CO2 capture efficiencies from a combustion flue gas. (C) 2004 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J| 50: 1614 -1622| 2004 6358,2004,3,3,Catalytic dehydrogenation of alkylaromatics with carbon dioxide as a soft oxidant,For the mitigation of global warming due to carbon dioxide| catalytic conversion of CO2 has been extensively studied for the last decade. Most of studies in the field have focused on the utilization of carbon dioxide as a carbon source through catalytic reduction processes with various kinds of reductants. However| catalytic hydrogenation has confronted with some limitations to be commercialized because of the use of expensive hydrogen as a reductant. As an alternative way| the utilization of CO2 as a soft oxidant and an oxygen transfer agent is attracting considerable attention. The oxygen species were proven to be active in the oxidative conversions of alkylaromatics into corresponding alkylaromatics with both increased activity and selectivity. This approach is expected to open new technology for the CO2 utilization as an oxidant in the massive utilization of carbon dioxide to get aromatic monomers. Hence| it could be coined as a soft oxidant in the dehydrogenation of alkylaromatics due to the role of CO2 of changing simple dehydrogenation into oxidative conversion together with merits of energy savings and the enhanced activity and selectivity. 6405,2004,3,2,Catalytic solutions for fugitive methane emissions in the oil and gas sector,Global warming attributed in part to the release of the so-called greenhouse gases is becoming an increasing concern| and steps are being implemented to mitigate such emissions. The two most significant emissions are carbon dioxide and methane. A significant fraction of emissions is emitted by oil and gas production and transportation facilities. Because methane has at least 21 times the greenhouse gas potential of carbon dioxide| it is advantageous to convert methane to carbon dioxide via combustion| even if the carbon dioxide is vented to the atmosphere. Fugitive methane combustion does however present certain difficulties in its combustion. This paper presents an overview of the problem and suggests some possible catalytic reactor technologies appropriate for the solution. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2058,2004,2,4,Cell death and degeneration in the symbiotic dinoflagellates of the coral Stylophora pistillata during bleaching,Rising sea temperatures are increasing the incidences of mass coral bleaching (the dissociation of the coral-algal symbiosis) and coral mortality. In this study| the effects of bleaching (induced by elevated light and temperature) on the condition of symbiotic dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium sp.) within the tissue of the hard coral Stylophora pistillata (Esper) were assessed using a suite of techniques. Bleaching of S. pistillata was accompanied by declines in the maximum potential quantum yield of photosynthesis (F-v/F-m| measured using pulse amplitude modulated [PAM] fluorometry)| an increase in the number of Sytox-green-stained algae (indicating compromised algal membrane integrity and cell death)| an increase in 2'|7'-dichlorodihydrofluroscein diacetate (H(2)DCFDA)stained algae (indicating increased oxidative stress)| as well as ultrastructural changes (vacuolisation| losses of chlorophyll| and an increase in accumulation bodies). Algae expelled from S. pistillata exhibited a complete disorganisation of cellular contents; expelled cells contained only amorphous material. In situ samples taken during a natural mass coral bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef in February 2002 also revealed a high number of Sytox-labelled algae cells in symbio. Dinoflagellate degeneration during bleaching seems to be similar to the changes resulting from senescence-phase cell death in cultured algae. These data support a role for oxidative stress in the mechanism of coral bleaching and highlight the importance of algal degeneration during the bleaching of a reef coral. 6413,2004,2,3,Changes in frost days in simulations of twentyfirst century climate,Global coupled climate model simulations of twentieth and twentyfirst century climate are analyzed for changes in frost days (defined as nighttime minima less than freezing). The model simulations agree with the observed pattern for late twentieth century of a greater decrease of frost days in the west and southwest USA compared to the rest of the country| and almost no change in frost days in fall compared to relatively larger decreases in spring. Associated with general increases of nighttime minimum temperatures| in the future climate with increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) the number of frost days is fewer almost everywhere| but there are greatest decreases over the western parts of the continents. The numbers of frost days are most consistently related to sea level pressure| with more frost days occurring when high pressure dominates on the monthly time scale in association with clearer skies and lower nighttime minimum temperatures. Spatial patterns of relative changes of frost days are indicative of regional scale atmospheric circulation changes that affect nighttime minimum temperatures. Increases of soil moisture and clouds also contribute| but play secondary roles. The linkages among soil moisture| clouds| sea level pressure| and diurnal temperature range are quantified by a statistical multiple regression model. Coefficients for present and future climate are similar among the predictors| indicating physical processes that affect frost days in present and future climates do not appreciably change. Only the intercept changes in association with the significant warming of the mean climate state. This study highlights the fact that| though there is a general decrease in the number of frost days with global warming| the processes that affect the pattern of those changes| and thus the regional changes of frost days| are influenced by several interrelated physical processes| with changes in regional atmospheric circulation generally being most important. 1930,2004,2,4,Changes in lagoonal marsh morphology at selected northeastern Atlantic coast sites of significance to migratory waterbirds,Five lagoonal salt marsh areas| ranging from 220 ha to 3|670 ha| were selected from Cape Cod| Massachusetts to the southern DelMarVa peninsula| Virginia| USA to examine the degree to which Spartina marsh area and microhabitats had changed from the early or mid- 1900s to recent periods. We chose areas based on their importance to migratory bird populations| agency concerns about marsh loss and sea-level rise| and availability of historic imagery. We georeferenced and processed aerial photographs from a variety of sources ranging from 1932 to 1994. Of particular interest were changes in total salt marsh area| tidal creeks| tidal flats| tidal and non-tidal ponds| and open water habitats. Nauset Marsh| within Cape Cod National Seashore| experienced an annual marsh loss of 0.40% (19% from 1947 to 1994) with most loss attributed to sand overwash and conversion to open water. At Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge in southern New Jersey| annual loss was 0.27% (17% from 1932 to 1995)| with nearly equal attribution of loss to open water and tidal pond expansion. At Curlew Bay| Virginia| annual loss was 0.20% (9% from 1949 to 1994) and almost entirely due to perimeter erosion to open water. At Gull Marsh| Virginia| a site chosen because of known erosional losses| we recorded the highest annual loss rate| 0.67% per annum| again almost entirely due to erosional| perimeter loss. In contrast| at the southernmost site| Mockhorn Island Wildlife Management Area| Virginia| there was a net gain of 0.09% per annum (4% from 1949 to 1994)| with tidal flats becoming increasingly vegetated. Habitat. implications for waterbirds are considerable; salt marsh specialists such as laughing gulls (Larus atricilla)| Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri)| black rail| (Laterallus jamaicensis)| seaside sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus)| and saltmarsh sharp-tailed sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus) are particularly at risk if these trends continue| and all but the laughing gull are species of concern to state and federal managers. 2057,2004,2,4,Changes in latitudes| changes in aptitudes: Nucella canaliculata (Mollusca : Gastropoda) is more stressed at its range edge,A paradigm in biogeography is that organisms have 'abundant center' distributions| with abundances peaking at the range center and declining towards the range boundaries. One explanation for this pattern is that abundances are associated with organisms' physiological stress levels and performances| with organisms experiencing more stress at the range edges. Here we explored whether the intertidal dogwhelk Nucella canaliculata was distributed in an 'abundant center' pattern. We addressed the role of stress in setting the species' range limits. We determined dogwhelk abundances at range-center and range-edge sites and measured physiological stress levels by quantifying the 70 kDa heat-shock protein as a biochemical stress index. N. canaliculata was less abundant and more stressed at its southern range edge than at the range center| suggesting that populations at the range edge may be most impacted by global climate change. 6471,2004,2,4,Changes in the cellular and organismal stress responses of the subtropical fish| the Indo-Pacific sergeant| Abudefduf vaigiensis| due to the 1997-1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation,There are accumulating reports showing that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a significant effect on the population dynamics of marine fishes. However| the influence of ENSO on the physiology of fishes| as possible components of those ecological changes in fish populations| is not fully understood. This study investigated the cellular| physiological| and organismal stress responses in a wild fish population under natural thermal stress. The sea surface temperature at the subtropical ocean of Okinawa| Japan| was the highest in the last 10 years (> 32degreesC) during the summer of 1998 with a strong ENSO. To examine the effects of those unusually warm ocean temperatures on fish| we compared tissue 70-kDa heat shock protein (HSP70) levels and growth rates between the ENSO summer of 1998 and the normal summer of 1999 in a common fish species in Okinawa| the Indo-Pacific sergeant| Abudefduf vaigiensis. We also conducted a complementary heat shock experiment in the laboratory. The field collected Indo-Pacific sergeant had significantly higher muscle HSP70 levels in 1998 than 1999. Higher muscle HSP70 and plasma cortisol levels were observed at 32degreesC than at 28degreesC in the laboratory heat shock experiment| indicating that the highest summer ocean temperature in 1998 was sufficient for the fish to up-regulate the cellular and physiological stress responses. In support of this effect| otoliths showed slower growth rates of the fish during the summer of 1998; this may reflect the significant energetic cost of these stress responses. 2024,2004,2,4,Changes in the seasonal cycle in the Circumpolar Arctic| 1976-95: Temperature and precipitation,The Arctic is one region where the effects of global climate change are expected to be easy to observe. This study identifies regions in the circumpolar Arctic that have experienced similar changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation over recent decades. Data from Arctic and northern nations have been compiled to form a new data set of over 1200 circumpolar Arctic climate stations. Changes in the seasonal cycle between two decades (1976-85 and 1986-95) are examined for the 247 temperature and 555 precipitation stations that meet specific completeness criteria. Inter-decadal shifts are analyzed using 11-day averages of daily mean temperature and 5-day averages of total daily precipitation. Examined at time-steps finer than annual or monthly means| climatic variations in the region are not consistent either through the seasons or across space. Some areas have demonstrated recent increases in temperature or precipitation| while others have displayed decreases in these elements. Many areas reveal climatic shifts in specific periods of the year that contrast markedly with the trends observed in other periods and other places. 6440,2004,2,3,Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths in transient enhanced greenhouse warming simulations using two coupled climate models,Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths resulting from global warming are examined in an ensemble of 250-year transient enhanced greenhouse warming simulations using two versions of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled general circulation model. Over the course of the integrations| there is a general decrease in the number of cyclone events in both the northern and the southern hemispheres. Although the total number of cyclone events decreases| the number of intense events in both hemispheres increases. The relation between the low-level temperature field and the total number of events as well as the relation between precipitation and intense events are discussed. 1993,2004,2,4,Changing global climate: Historical carbon and nitrogen budgets and projected responses of Ohio's cropland ecosystems,As the evidence of global climate change continues to mount| its consequences for cropland productivity assume particular significance. Against the backdrop of past agricultural practices| simulation models offer a glimpse into the future| showing the effect of temperature changes on crop production. In this study| we first quantified the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) budgets of Ohio's cropland ecosystems using inventory yield data of corn for grain| oat| and all wheat for the period 1866-1996 and soybean for the period 1924-96. Then we explored the responses of Ohio's continuous soybean croplands to changes in temperature| carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration| initial soil organic C and N (SOC-N) pools| soil texture| and management practices by developing a simple cropland ecosystem model (CEM) and performing a long-term sensitivity analysis. Finally| CEM simulations were evaluated against independent observations of SOC values (0-19 cm) averaged over 470 northwest Ohio sites between 1954 and 1987 under conventional tillage and rotations of corn-soybean-winter wheat by using the historical yield data (r(2) = 0.8). The C contents per hectare of crop harvests increased by 178% for oats| 300% for corn for grain| and 652% for all wheat between 1866 and 1996 and by 305% for soybean between 1924 and 1996. Ohio croplands acted as C-N sources| releasing average net ecosystem emissions (NEE)| including the removal of harvested C-N| of 4|598 kg CO2 ha(-1) and 141 kg N ha(-1) in 1886 and 205 kg CO2 ha(-1) (except for the corn-for-grain cropland) and 39 kg N ha(-1) in 1996. The continuous corn croplands continued to become a C sink| sequestering 255 kg C ha(-1) in 1996. Results of the sensitivity analysis for Ohio's continuous soybean croplands revealed that the SOC pool increased by 6.9% and decreased by 7.5% in response to a doubled CO2 concentration and a temperature increase of 2.8degreesC over 100 years| respectively. The sequestration potential of the SOC pool increased by 6.5% at a rate of 24.6 kg C ha(-1) y(-1) for the same period with finer soil texture (loam to silty clay loam). The shift from conventional to conservation residue practice led to an 11% increase in the steady-state SOC storage at a rate of 42 kg C ha(-1) y(-1) for 100 years. 1943,2004,2,3,Climate change and the distribution of climatic resources for tourism in North America,Tourism is a major sector of the global economy| and it is strongly influenced by climate. At some travel destinations| climate represents the natural resource on which the tourism industry is predicated. Global climate change has the potential to alter the distribution of climate assets among tourism destinations| with implications for tourism seasonality| demand and travel patterns. Changes in the length and quality of the tourism season have considerable implications for the long-term profitability of tourism enterprises and competitive relationships between destinations. This analysis utilizes a 'tourism climate index' (TCI) that incorporates 7 climate variables relevant to general tourism activities (i.e. sightseeing) to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of climate resources for tourism in North America under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and 2 climate change scenarios (CGCM2-B2 and HadCM3-A1F1) for the 2050s and 2080s. The analysis found that a substantive redistribution of climate resources for tourism will be possible in the later decades of the 21st century| particularly in the warmer and wetter HadCM3-A1F1 scenario. The number of cities in the USA with 'excellent' or' ideal' TCI ratings (TCI > 80) in the winter months is likely to increase| so that southern Florida and Arizona could face increasing competition for winter sun holiday travelers and the seasonal 'snowbird' market (retirees from Canada and the northern states of the USA| who spend 2 to 6 mo in winter peak and optimal climate destinations). In contrast| lower winter TCI ratings in Mexico suggest it could become less competitive as a winter sun holiday destination. In Canada| a longer and improved warm-weather tourism season may enhance its competitiveness in the international tourism marketplace| with potentially positive implications for its current international tourism account deficit. 6343,2004,2,4,Climate change and the effect of temperature backlashes causing frost damage in Picea abies,In boreal and nemoboreal forests| tree frost hardiness is modified in reaction to cues from day length and temperature. The dehardening processes in Norway spruce| Picea abies| could be estimated to start when the daily mean temperature is above 5 degreesC for 5 days. Bud burst will occur approximately after 120-170 degree-days above 5 degreesC. dependent on genetic differences among provenances. A reduced cold hardiness level during autumn and spring and an advanced onset of bud burst are expected impacts of projected future global wart-ning. The aim of this study was to test if this will increase the risk for frost damage caused by temperature backlashes. This was tested for Sweden by comparing output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model| HadRM3H| for the period 1961-1990 with future IPCC scenario SRES A2 and B2 for 2070-2099. Different indices for calculating the susceptibility to frost damage were used to assess changes in frost damage risk. The indices were based on: (1) the start of dehardening; (2) the severity of the temperature backlash: (3) the timing of bud burst: and (4) the cold hardiness level. The start of dehardening and bud burst were calculated to occur earlier all over the country. which is in line with the overall warming in both climate change scenarios. The frequency of temperature backlashes that may cause frost damage was calculated to increase in the southern part| an effect that became gradually less pronounced towards the north. The different timing of the onset of dehardening mainly caused this systematic latitudinal pattern. In the south| it occurs early in the year when the seasonal temperature progression is slow and large temperature variations occur. In the north| dehardening will occur closer to the spring equinox when the temperature progression is faster. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6345,2004,5,3,Climate change in arid environments: revisiting the past to understand the future,Arid regions are expected to undergo significant changes under a scenario of climate warming| but there is considerable variability and uncertainty in these estimates between different scenarios. The complexities of precipitation changes| vegetation - climate feedbacks and direct physiological effects of CO2 on vegetation present particular challenges for climate change modelling of arid regions. Great uncertainties exist in the prediction of arid ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 and global warming. Palaeodata provide important information about the past frequency| intensity and subregional patterns of change in the world's deserts that cannot always be captured by the climatic models. However| it is important to bear in mind that the global mechanisms of Quaternary climatic variability were different from present-day trends| and any direct analogies between the past and present should be treated with great caution. Although palaeodata provide valuable information about possible past changes in the vegetation - climate system| it is unlikely that the history of the world's deserts is a key for their future. 2003,2004,3,3,Climate change mitigation in Turkey,One of the most contentious issues in the debate over global climate change is the perceived divide between interests and obligations of developed and developing countries. Equity demands that developed countries act first to reduce emissions. That principle is embedded in the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol| which sets binding emission targets for developed countries only. With the Protocol now likely to enter into force| the focus will turn increasingly to the question of developing country emissions. Turkey's high rate of energy-related carbon emissions growth is expected to accelerate| with emissions climbing from 60 million tons in 2002 to almost 220 million tons in 2020. Carbon intensity in Turkey is higher than the western developed country average. Energy-intensive| inefficient industries remain under government control with soft budget constraints| contributing to undisciplined energy use. Planned industrial privatizations may close the oldest and most inefficient operations and modernize surviving ones. Elimination of energy price subsidies could stimulate energy conservation| reducing energy and emissions growth below current projections. This article reviews energy consumption and climate change mitigation in Turkey. 6609,2004,2,4,Climate change| genotypic diversity and gene flow in reef-building corals,In the ocean| large-scale dispersal and replenishment by larvae is a key process underlying biological changes associated with global warming. On tropical reefs| coral bleaching| degradation of habitat and declining adult stocks are also likely to change contemporary patterns of dispersal and gene flow and may lead to range contractions or expansions. On the Great Barrier Reef| where adjacent reefs form a highly interconnected system| we use allozyme surveys of c. 3000 coral colonies to show that populations are genetically diverse| and rates of gene flow for a suite of five species range from modest to high among reefs up to 1200 km apart. In contrast| 700 km further south on Lord Howe Island| genetic diversity is markedly lower and populations are genetically isolated. The virtual absence of long-distance dispersal of corals to geographically isolated| oceanic reefs renders them extremely vulnerable to global warming| even where local threats are minimal. 1960,2004,4,2,Climate change: Conflict of observational science| theory| and politics,Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent what they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies| such as the Kyoto Protocol| global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change| and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade| the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is-beginning to report the history of past climate change| the extent of natural climate variability| natural system drivers| and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However| significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate.
6670,2004,4,5,Climate change: detection and attribution of trends from long-term geologic data,Two questions about climate change remain open: detection and attribution. Detection of change for a complex phenomenon like climate is far from simple| because of the necessary averaging and correcting of the various data sources. Given that change over some period is detected| how do we attribute that change to natural versus anthropogenic causes? Historical data may provide key insights in these critical areas. If historical climate data exhibit regularities such as cycles| then these cycles may be considered to be the "normal" behavior of the system| in which case deviations from the "normal" pattern would be evidence for anthropogenic effects on climate. This study uses this approach to examine the global warming question. Two 3000-year temperature series with minimal dating error were analyzed. A total of seven time-series models were fit to the two temperature series and to an average of the two series. None of these models used 20th Century data. In all cases| a good to excellent fit was obtained. Of the seven models| six show a warming trend over the 20th Century similar in timing and magnitude to the Northern Hemisphere instrumental series. One of the models passes right through the 20th Century data. These results suggest that 20th Century warming trends are plausibly a continuation of past climate patterns. Results are not precise enough to solve the attribution problem by partitioning warming into natural versus human-induced components. However| anywhere from a major portion to all of the warming of the 20th Century could plausibly result from natural causes according to these results. Six of the models project a cooling trend (in the absence of other forcings) over the next 200 years of 0.2-1.4degreesC. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
6522,2004,2,4,Climate controls on vegetation phenological patterns in northern mid- and high latitudes inferred from MODIS data,Recent studies using both field measurements and satellite-derived-vegetation indices have demonstrated that global warming is influencing vegetation growth and phenology. To accurately predict the future response of vegetation to climate variation| a thorough understanding of vegetation phenological cycles and their relationship to temperature and precipitation is required. In this paper| vegetation phenological transition dates identified using data from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) in 2001 are linked with MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data from the northern hemisphere between 35degreesN and 70degreesN. The results show well-defined patterns dependent on latitude| in which vegetation greenup gradually migrates northward starting in March| and dormancy spreads southward from late September. Among natural vegetation land-cover types| the growing-season length for forests is strongly correlated with variation in mean annual LST. For urban areas| the onset of greenup is 4-9 days earlier on average| and the onset of dormancy is about 2-16 days later| relative to adjacent natural vegetation. This difference (especially for urban vs. forests) is apparently related to urban heat island effects that result in both the average spring temperature and the mean annual temperature in urban areas being about 1-3degreesC higher relative to rural areas. The results also indicate that urban heat island effects on vegetation phenology are stronger in North America than in Europe and Asia. Finally| the onset of forest greenup at continental scales can be effectively described using a thermal time-chilling model| which can be used to infer the delay or advance of greenup onset in relation to climatic warming at global scale. 6430,2004,2,4,Climate impact on plankton ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic,It is now widely accepted that global warming is occurring| yet its effects on the world's largest ecosystem| the marine pelagic realm| are largely unknown. We show that sea surface warming in the Northeast Atlantic is accompanied by increasing phytoplankton abundance in cooler regions and decreasing phytoplankton abundance in warmer regions. This impact propagates up the food web (bottom-up control) through copepod herbivores to zooplankton carnivores because of tight trophic coupling. Future warming is therefore likely to alter the spatial distribution of primary and secondary pelagic production| affecting ecosystem services and placing additional stress on already-depleted fish and mammal populations. 6368,2004,4,4,Climate response of fossil fuel and biofuel soot| accounting for soot's feedback to snow and sea ice albedo and emissivity,[ 1] The first three-dimensional global model in which time-dependent spectral albedos and emissivities over snow and sea ice are predicted with a radiative transfer solution| rather than prescribed| is applied to study the climate response of fossil fuel plus biofuel black carbon plus organic matter (ff+bf BC+OM) when BC absorption in snow and sea ice is accounted for. The model treats the cycling of size-resolved BC+OM between emission and removal by dry deposition and precipitation from first principles. Particles produce and enter size-resolved clouds and precipitation by nucleation scavenging and aerosol-hydrometeor coagulation. Removal brings BC to the surface| where internally and externally mixed BC in snow and sea ice affects albedo and emissivity through radiative transfer. Climate response simulations were run with a ff+bf BC+OC emission inventory lower than that used in a previous study. The 10-year| globally averaged ff+bf BC+OM near-surface temperature response due to all feedbacks was about + 0.27 K (+ 0.32 in the last 3 years)| close to those from the previous study ( 5-year average of + 0.3 K and fifth-year warming of + 0.35 K) and its modeled range (+ 0.15 to + 0.5 K) because warming due to soot absorption in snow and sea ice here ( 10-year average of + 0.06 K with a modeled range of + 0.03 to + 0.11 K) offset reduced warming due to lower emission. BC was calculated to reduce snow and sea ice albedo by similar to 0.4% in the global average and 1% in the Northern Hemisphere. The globally averaged modeled BC concentration in snow and sea ice was similar to 5 ng/g; that in rainfall was similar to 22 ng/g. About 98% of BC removal from the atmosphere was due to precipitation; the rest was due to dry deposition. The results here support previous findings that controlling ff+bf BC+OM and CO(2) emission may slow global warming. 6528,2004,2,4,Climate variabilities of sea level around the Korean Peninsula,In order to study the climate variabilities of the sea level around the Korean Peninsula| tidal data observed at local stations in Korea were compared against those obtained using TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimetric sea level data. In the course of our study| the amount of sea level rise was estimated using the tidal data from 9 stations selected by an anomaly coherency analysis. The results indicated that the sea level has risen by 0.28 cm yr(-1) around the Korean Peninsula over the past two decades. The extent of such a rise is about two times higher than that of the global increase (0.1 - 0.2 cm yr(-1)). However| because most global warming effects occurred mainly over mid- and high-latitudes| this level of change appears to be realistic. According to the spectral analysis (at a spectral window of k = 2| k is the number of subdivisions)| the decadal band of sea level variability is computed at 30% of the energy. Its spectral peak is found at 12.8 years. In the interannual band| the predominant sea level variability is in the 1.4 - 1.9-year band| with a sharp peak at 1.6 years. A secondary peak| although marginal| has a period of 2.2 years. Based on our estimates of sea level height from Topex/Poseidon| the quasi-biennial periodicity of 1.6 years is the representative interannual sea level variability in the seas adjacent to Korea. Trends vary greatly according to the geographical location| from a maximum of 1.0 cm yr(-1) (the southern sector of the East Sea) to a minimum of 0.17 cm yr(-1) (the northern sector of the East Sea). This is fairly consistent with the qualitative description already given with reference to the global map. As an analogue to the pattern seen in Korea| that of the Yellow Sea reveals practically the same trend as that of the adjacent seas (0.56 cm yr(-1)). However| in the case of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) data| there is no clear evidence of a linkage between the interannual sea level variability around the Korean Peninsula and ENSO. 6633,2004,2,4,Climatic forcing and primary productivity in a subalpine lake: Interannual variability as a natural experiment,We analyzed a 42-yr record of primary productivity in small| subalpine Castle Lake to determine how climatic variability might influence lake primary productivity. A Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) polarity reversal in 1977 significantly affected winter air and summer water temperatures in Castle Lake. The timing of lake ice-out was explained by spring air temperature and winter total precipitation (r(2) = 0.72) and significantly affected water temperature (r(2) = 0.74). Primary productivity was negatively correlated with ice-out date and positively correlated with primary productivity during the previous year (r(2) = 0.47). Alternatively| primary productivity was positively correlated with water temperature and primary productivity during the previous year (r(2) = 0.49). Ammonium availability immediately after ice-out was significantly related to primary productivity from the previous and the current year| suggesting that nutrient availability is an important mechanism for the serial correlation. Daphnia and cyanobacteria biomass also increased during warmer years. Our results suggest that variability in air temperature and precipitation from global warming| PDO| and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence primary productivity and plankton communities in North American dimictic lakes. 6536,2004,3,3,CO2 Emission benefit of diesel (versus gasoline) powered vehicles,Concerns regarding global warming have increased the pressure on automobile manufacturers to decrease emissions Of CO2 from vehicles. Diesel vehicles have higher fuel economy and lower CO2 emissions than their gasoline counterparts. Increased penetration of diesel powered vehicles into the market is a possible transition strategy toward a more sustainable transportation system. To facilitate discussions regarding the relative merits of diesel vehicles it is important to have a clear understanding of their CO2 emission benefits. Based on European diesel and gasoline certification data| this report quantifies such CO2 reduction opportunities for cars and light duty trucks in today's vehicles and those in the year 2015. Overall| on a well-to-wheels per vehicle per mile basis| the CO2 reduction opportunity for today's vehicles is approximately 24-33%. We anticipate that the gap between diesel and gasoline well-to-wheel vehicle CO2 emissions will clecreaseto approximately 14-27% by the year 2015. 6421,2004,3,3,CO2 hydrates in refrigeration processes,Global warming concerns have led the refrigeration industry to seek and develop new refrigeration systems with a reduced impact on the environment. The use of two-phase secondary refrigerants generated by a primary closed refrigeration circuit is a promising solution. Solid fluid secondary refrigerants are known for their higher energy efficiency compared to single-phase fluids| because of the additional latent heat of the solid phase. The objective of the present work is to investigate experimentally the latent heat of CO2 hydrate-ice mixture systems in comparison to that of ice slurry systems. By using a new DTA apparatus| the CO2 hydrate-ice mixture was shown to offer a dissociation enthalpy of 507 kJ/kg that is higher than that of ice (333 kJ/kg). Artificial tuned CO2 hydrate-fluid systems appear to be an environment-friendly alternative for refrigeration and air-conditioning systems that can be used in a wide range of applications. 6484,2004,2,4,Combustion aerosol from experimental crown fires in a boreal forest jack pine stand,Combustion aerosol particles from boreal forest fires were quantified to facilitate investigation of the potential effects of increased fire activity caused by global warming| by providing data inputs for global and regional climate modelling of the direct and indirect effects. Aerial sampling was carried out in smoke plumes from 1-ha prescribed burns in mature jack pine stands. The three sampled burns resulted in crown fires| with fuel consumption from 4.2 to 5.8 kg.m(-2). Accumulation and coarse mode aerosol (>0.1 mum) was quantified using a passive cavity aerosol spectrometer probe and cascade impactor. The number median diameter of particles in the smoke plume was 0.29 mum| and the peak number and cross-sectional area density occurred around a particle size of 0.4 mum. More than 99% of particles sized had diameters <1.2 mum. Aerosol from flaming combustion was coarser than that from the smouldering phase| with number median diameters of 0.3 and 0.2 mum| respectively. 6739,2004,4,4,Communal Climate Alliance in Styrian/Austria: Goals and experiences - A contribution to political ecology,The influence of policies and education on fostering landscape-ecological awareness and environmental impact assessment among the population is being increasingly accepted by ecologists and scientists in general. A successful legislation to protect sustainable global| regional| and local climatic conditions largely depends on a well-balanced and transparent information policy| implementation strategy and a sound educational basis: Being aware of the fact that policy as decision making authority on its various administrative levels to a large extent influences and controls shaping and reshaping of our cultural landscapes and physical environment the main aim of this contribution is to analyse the (real) attitude of mind of communal politicians as to climate protection since through deliberately joining Climate Alliance in Austria they bound themselves to attribute actively to reaching the above goal. The method chosen for getting the necessary information is that of an open standardized interview because it| normally| allows a clear reality-related insight into the mental attitudes| political feelings and personal preferences of the 63 interviewees (mayors or responsible community officials) out of 74 Climate Alliance Communities in Styria| (i.e. appr. 12% of all communes). The analysis of the questionnaires reveals the general discrepancy between political declaration of intention and reality of everyday political life resulting from the fact that politicians are subject to reelection within relative short periods| too short for a far-sighted implementation of environmental goals. 6401,2004,2,4,Community-level analysis of risk of vector-borne disease,Ecological community structure is particularly important in vector-borne zoonotic diseases with complex life cycles. Qualitative community model analysis may provide a meaningful alternative to standard population-based models of vector-borne disease. We built on recent mathematical developments in qualitative community modeling coupled with conventional biomathematical models of vector-borne disease transmission| to provide a procedure to analyze risk. Using this procedure| we can hypothesize changes in risk of vector-borne disease from disturbances| such as control measures| habitat alteration| or global warming. We demonstrate the application of this procedure to an oak forest community to predict the risk of Lyme disease. Our predictions of Lyme disease risk in an oak forest community confirm reports of positive associations between deer abundance and risk of disease and are consistent with published observations. (C) 2004 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6564,2004,3,3,Comparative evaluation of the contribution of residential water heating systems to the variation of greenhouse gases stock in the atmosphere,The objective of this work is to evaluate the contribution of the several household water heating systems to global warming using the life cycle analysis. The systems studied were the electric showerhead| the passage gas heater and the solar heater. The water heating systems can pollute the environment through the emission of greenhouse gases which occurs during the generation of electric power for manufacturing the components of these systems and the use of the electric showerheads and resistances of the boilers of the solar systems| and during the combustion of fossil fuels gas heaters and transport of the heating system's components. The results show that| for the adopted parameters| the electric showerhead consumes the most electric power and emits the most pollutants during its life cycle. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6396,2004,2,4,Comparative temperature time-series in the Lebanese (Batroun) and French (Marseilles) coastal waters between June 1999 and October 2002,Vertical temperature profiles were recorded from June 1999 to October 2002 (at least once a month) at two Mediterranean sites| in the eastern basin (Batroun| Lebanon; 0-100 m) and in the northwestern basin (Marseilles| France; 0-55 m). At the two sites| the thermal seasonal evolution and the thermocline time dynamics are quite identical. But in the Lebanese waters| at comparable water depths| temperatures are currently 4 to 5 degreesC higher than in the French waters| the thermocline is longer (more than 6 months)| permanent and deeper (40-50 m) than in Marseilles (20-30 m). The latter frequently disappears in summer due to northwest winds inducing cold waters. This is principally due to differences in prevailing wind regimes at each site. Such evaluation| coupled with long-term observations of temporal evolution of coastal water at the regional level of the Mediterranean basins| will shed light on temperature regime fluctuations and their consequences in the context of global warming of the Mediterranean. (C) 2004 Academie des sciences. Publie par Elsevier SAS. Tous droits reserves. 6577,2004,3,4,Comparison of ecological effects and costs of communal waste management systems,The selection of an appropriate "optimal" recycling alternative has to take into consideration both the ecological and economic effects of the entire life-cycle. The aim of this paper is to compare different waste management systems by means of a life-cycle assessment (LCA) and a cost comparison. The analysis uses data regarding the amount of household waste generated| collected and treated in a selected area in Austria. For this purpose| model-based scenarios with recycling and separate collection as well as scenarios without recycling were created. The database covers the amounts of household waste generated in the different collection schemes| the transport distances by private delivery and by regional waste management companies and data on the waste treatment processes that are widely employed throughout Austria and Germany. The resulting life-cycle inventories have been assessed according to three impact categories relevant to this topic-the global warming potential (GWP)| the acidification potential (AP) and the net energy use (NEU). The results include ecological impact analyses and cost comparisons for the overall waste management systems and the waste management systems for the individual waste types-waste paper| plastic packaging| metal packaging and waste glass. Finally| a sensitivity analysis should prove the validity of the results for regions with transport distances differing from those in the area under analysis. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 6612,2004,3,4,Comparison of the environmental impact of incineration and landfilling in Sao Paulo City as determined by LCA,Life cycle assessment was employed to compare the environmental impact of incineration and the landfilling of municipal solid waste in Sao Paulo City| Brazil. Incineration with energy recovery and landfilling treatment systems were assessed in five different scenarios. Three incineration scenarios with different ash treatment systems were evaluated: incineration with ash disposal| with ash melting| and with an ash reuse system (brick production). Two landfilling scenarios were evaluated| namely| with and without energy recovery. Energy consumption| recovered resources| and emissions to the air and water were quantified and analyzed in terms of their impact potentials. Global warming| acidification| and nutrient enrichment were assessed as environmental impact categories. Electricity generation in these waste treatment systems did not result in a significant reduction in overall environmental impact| because Brazilian electricity is mainly hydro-based. Incineration with ash disposal to a landfill site resulted in the lowest impact values for all impact categories assessed in this study. Among the incineration scenarios| the reuse of ash for brick production resulted in a higher environmental impact due to an increase in energy consumption. Landfilling had a higher environmental impact than incineration. Landfilling with energy recovery had a slightly lower environmental impact than the landfillingwithout energy recovery. Finally| it was demonstrated that significant reductions in environmental impact could be obtained through a change in the solid waste management of Sao Paulo City. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2060,2004,5,4,Comparison of the Holocene and Eemian palaeoenvironments in the South Icelandic Basin: dinoflagellate cysts as proxies for the North Atlantic surface circulation,A precise assessment of the hydrological changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean throughout the last climatic cycle stands as one of the key priorities for understanding the mechanisms of global climate change. A high resolution micropalaeontological study of a sediment core (MD95-2015) retrieved from the South Icelandic Basin| allows us to infer patterns of North Atlantic surface hydrological changes during the present (Holocene) and the ultimate (Marine Isotopic Stage 5) Interglacial periods. The downcore distribution of organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) is used| in conjunction with additional proxies (sediment magnetic susceptibility| CaCO(3)| stables isotopes and planktic foraminifer assemblages) to identify climatic instabilities of various amplitudes. These events are mostly characterised by prominent changes in relative abundance of the dinocysts Spiniferites mirabilis and Operculodinium centrocarpum| whose maximum values are thought to trace sea-surface temperature peaks at the core site. Two hypsithermal periods are identified on this basis| between 126 and 120 kyr BP and from 9.2 to 5.7 cal kyr BP (similar to8-5 (14)C kyr BP)| respectively. Some discrepancies between the micropalaeontological tracers used are discussed here in the light of their qualitative and quantitative (transfer functions) ecological interpretation. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6495,2004,2,4,Competition| predation and species responses to environmental change,Despite much effort over the past decade on the ecological consequences of global warming| ecologists still have little understanding of the importance of interspecific interactions in species responses to environmental change. Models predict that predation should mitigate species responses to environmental change| and that interspecific competition should aggravate species responses to environmental change. To test this prediction| we studied how predation and competition affected the responses of two ciliates| Colpidiumstriatum and Parameciumtetraurelia| to temperature change in laboratory microcosms. We found that neither predation nor competition altered the responses of Colpidiumstriatum to temperature change| and that competition but not predation altered the responses of Paramecium tetraurelia to temperature change. Asymmetric interactions and temperature-dependent interactions may have contributed to the disparity between model predictions and experimental results. Our results suggest that models ignoring inherent complexities in ecological communities may be inadequate in forecasting species responses to environmental change. 6383,2004,2,4,Contrasted growth of black spruce (Picea mariana) forest trees at treeline associated with climate change over the last 400 years,Several environmental indicators show that climate changed dramatically at the turn of the 19th century| with global warming throughout the 20th century. Among the most used proxies to evaluate long-term changes in climate are trees located at their northern range limit. Several studies have shown enhanced tree regeneration at treeline caused by recent warming| but no data are available on height growth performance of forest trees at treeline before and during the 20th century warmth. In this study| we examined the long-term growth performance of black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) trees located in a lichen-spruce woodland| near the arctic treeline in eastern Canada. The study woodland is an old-growth stand that has escaped fire approximately during the past two millennia. We performed stem analysis on normally developed trees which grew in the woodland over the last centuries. The sampled trees are ramets from long-lived| self-regenerating black spruce clones that are forming small tree islands within the woodland. The co-occurrence of living and dead tree stems inside clones gives the opportunity to evaluate the growth performance of the same genets through time. Height and radial growth of 60 tree stems from 15 old-growth clones were evaluated for a period spanning the last 400 yr. Sampling included the two tallest living stems and the two tallest dead stems of randomly selected clones. No differences in height and radial growth were found among the 30 living stems nor among the 30 dead stems within clones. Living stems were 2 m taller and radial growth was 1.6 times greater than dead stems. Vertical development of stems was divided into two parts according to position of snow cover. Growth of dead and living stems was similar below the snowpack line. However| significant differences were found for growth above snowpack for the two types of stems. Growth above snow cover for all dead stems occurred between the 17th and 19th centuries. In contrast| growth of living stems above snow cover started during the late 19th century. Our data indicate that stems of the same genotype responded directly to climate change| in conjunction with climatic conditions prevailing at the time when they were protruding above the snowpack. Compared to extant trees| significantly smaller trees grew in the woodland during the Little Ice Age. Potential causal factors of differential growth performance through time are discussed. 2048,2004,2,2,Coral reefs in a century of rapid environmental change,Coral reefs are the most diverse marine ecosystem and embrace possibly millions of plant| animal and protist species. Mutualistic symbioses are a fundamental feature of coral reefs that have been used to explain their structure| biodiversity and existence. Complex inter-relationships between hosts| habitats and symbionts belie closely coupled nutrient and community dynamics that create the circumstances for "something from nothing" (or the "oasis in a nutrient desert"). The flip side of these dynamics is a close dependency between species| which results in a series of non-linear relationships as conditions change. These responses are being highlighted as anthropogenic influences increase across the world's tropical and subtropical coastlines. Caribbean as well as Indo-Pacific coral populations are now in a serious decline in many parts of the world. This has resulted in a significant reorganization of how coral reef ecosystems function. Among the spectra of changes brought about by humans is rapid climate change. Mass coral bleaching - the loss of the dinoflagellate symbionts from reef-building corals - and mortality has affected the world's coral reefs with increasing frequency and intensity since the late 1970s. Mass bleaching events| which often cover thousands of square kilometres of coral reefs| are triggered by small increases (+1-3degreesC) in water temperature. These increases in sea temperature are often seen during warm phase weather conditions (e.g. ENSO) and are increasing in size and magnitude. The loss of living coral cover (e.g. 16% globally in 1998| an exceptionally warm year) is resulting in an as yet unspecified reduction in the abundance of a myriad of other species. Projections from general circulation models (GCM) used to project changes in global temperature indicate that conditions even under the mildest greenhouse gas emission scenarios may exceed the thermal tolerances of most reef-building coral communities. Research must now explore key issues such as the extent to which the thermal tolerances of corals and their symbionts are dynamic if bleaching and disease are linked; how the loss of high densities of reef-building coral will affect other dependent species; and| how the loss of coral populations will affect the millions of people globally who depend on coral reefs for their daily survival. 2040,2004,2,2,Could CO2-induced land-cover feedbacks alter near-shore upwelling regimes?,The response of marine and terrestrial environments to global changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will likely be governed by both responses to direct environmental forcing and responses to Earth-system feedbacks induced by that forcing. it has been proposed that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing will intensify coastal upwelling in eastern boundary current regions [Bakun| A. (1990) Science 247| 198-201]. Focusing on the California Current| we show that biophysical land-cover-atmosphere feedbacks induced by CO2 radiative forcing enhance the radiative effects Of CO2 on land-sea thermal contrast| resulting in changes in eastern boundary current total seasonal upwelling and upwelling seasonality. Specifically| relative to CO2 radiative forcing| land-cover-atmosphere feedbacks lead to a stronger increase in peak- and late-season near-shore upwelling in the northern limb of the California Current and a stronger decrease in peak- and late-season near-shore upwelling in the southern limb. Such changes will impact both marine and terrestrial communities [Bakun| A. (1990) Science 247|198-201; Soto| C. G. (2001) Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 11| 181-195; and Agostini| V. N. & Bakun| A. (2002) Fish. Oceanogr. 11| 129-142]| and these and other Earth-system feedbacks should be expected to play a substantial role in shaping the response of eastern boundary current regions to CO2 radiative forcing. 2039,2004,2,3,Critically pressured free-gas reservoirs below gas-hydrate provinces,Palaeoceanographic data have been used to suggest that methane hydrates play a significant role in global climate change. The mechanism by which methane is released during periods of global warming is| however| poorly understood(1). In particular| the size and role of the free-gas zone below gas-hydrate provinces remain relatively unconstrained| largely because the base of the free-gas zone is not a phase boundary and has thus defied systematic description. Here we evaluate the possibility that the maximum thickness of an interconnected free-gas zone is mechanically regulated by valving caused by fault slip in overlying sediments(2). Our results suggest that a critical gas column exists below most hydrate provinces in basin settings| implying that these provinces are poised for mechanical failure and are therefore highly sensitive to changes in ambient conditions(3). We estimate that the global free-gas reservoir may contain from one-sixth to two-thirds of the total methane trapped in hydrate(4). If gas accumulations are critically thick along passive continental slopes| we calculate that a 5 degreesC temperature increase at the sea floor could result in a release of similar to2|000 Gt of methane from the free-gas zone| offering a mechanism for rapid methane release during global warming events. 6613,2004,2,4,Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Cyanobacteria) invasion at mid-latitudes: Selection| wide physiological tolerance| or global warming?,The tropical bloom-forming cyanobacterium Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Woloszynska) Seenaya et Subba Raju is causing increasing concern because of its potential toxicity and invasive behavior at mid-latitudes. This species has recently been identified in several temperate areas and was first reported in France in 1994| but the mechanisms underlying this acclimation process remain to be elucidated. We performed a range of laboratory experiments in an attempt to identify the physiological characteristics that could account for this behavior. We investigated the three following hypotheses: 1) clones of C. raciborskii adapted to temperate climate have been selected as it advanced north| 2) C. raciborskii has high physiological tolerance that allows it to prosper in a wide range of conditions| and 3) changes inclimate (global warming) have favored the development of C. raciborskii in mid-latitudes. Ten strains of C. raciborskii from Australia n=1)| Brazil (2)| France (2)| Germany (1)| Hungary (1)| Mexico (1)| and Senegal (2) were cultured at different temperatures and light intensities. The in vitro growth parameters (mu and T-opt) were the same for the tropical and temperate strains. All 10 strains displayed positive net growth in a wide range of temperatures (from 20 to 35degreesC) and light intensities (from 30 to 400 mumol photons.m(-2).s(-1))| with maximum growth rates at around 30degreesC and 80 mumol photons.m(-2).s(-1). This suggests that the colonization of mid-latitudes by C. raciborskii may result from a combination of its ability to tolerate a rather wide range of climatic conditions and the global warming phenomenon| which provides this species with better environmental conditions for its growth. 6715,2004,2,4,Damage evaluation of agro-meteorological hazards in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain| China: Case study of Lishu county of Jilin province,Agro-meteorological hazards such as drought| waterlogging and cool summer occur with very high frequency and affect maize production and social-economic development in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain| China. Moreover| both the frequency of these hazards and loss from them are considered to be increasing with global warming. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought| waterlogging and cool summer| and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards in the maize-growing area of Songliao Plain| taking Lishu county as a case study area based on GIS ( Geographic Information System). Crop yield-climate analysis and regression analysis were employed to analyze and quantify relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought| waterlogging and cool summer| and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards. The parameters and model of damage evaluation were presented using weighted comprehensive analysis| and the degree of damage of drought| waterlogging and cool summer to maize production was comprehensively evaluated and regionalized. It is shown that from 1949 to 1990| the negative value years of the fluctuation of maize yield due to meteorological hazards accounted for 55% of seasons| of which 14% was caused by drought| 30% by waterlogging| 4% by cool summer and drought| 9% by cool summer and waterlogging| 13% by drought and waterlogging| 30% by drought| waterlogging and cool summer. Studies on the instability and spatial variation of the fluctuations in maize yield in Lishu county showed that the middle plains are stable areas to climatic influence| while southeastern hills and low mountains| the low lands of the plains along the East Liao River and the western plain are unstable areas in terms of areas in maize yield. The synthetic index of the degree of damage to maize of drought| waterlogging and cool summer showed a strong positive correlation with the ratio of the amount damaged to the normal yield of maize. This suggests that this index can be used to evaluate such damage. The degree of damage of drought| waterlogging and cool summer to maize in Lishu county shows the regional characteristics| which increase gradually from the center to the west and east| this being almost identical with the spatial distribution of the fluctuation of maize yield due to these hazards. This study can be expected to provide the basis for developing strategies to mitigate agro-meteorological hazards and reducing the losses from them| and adjust the medium and long-term distribution of agricultural activities so as to adapt to environmental changes. 1981,2004,5,4,Dating the earliest lowland glaciation of eastern England: a pre-MIS 12 early Middle Pleistocene Happisburgh glaciation,This paper outlines the evidence for the Happisburgh Glaciation-the first Middle Pleistocene glaciation of lowland eastern England and the adjacent margins of the North Sea Basin. We propose that this glaciation occurred during a pre-Elsterian/Anglian (MIS 12) cold stage based on evidence of clasts of till| erratics and heavy minerals from the third youngest terrace of the 'pre-glacial' Bytham River in southern Norfolk. The heavy minerals show a progressive increase in glacially sourced materials from the bottom to the top of the Bytham River third terrace sediments. The till clasts are correlated with the extensive deposits of the Happisburgh Formation on the basis of their colour| heavy minerals and particle size properties. Thus| the Happisburgh Glaciation occurred during the accumulation of the Bytham River terrace deposits and prior to MIS 12| when the Bytham River system was destroyed by the Anglian glaciation. In the absence of any geochronology or robust biostratigraphy| the age of the Happisburgh Glaciation is estimated by the synchronisation of the pattern of large-scale river activity with patterns of Milankovitch-forced global climate change. On this basis| and assuming the British Ice Sheet acted in phase with global patterns of ice volume| the Happisburgh Glaciation is considered to have occurred during MIS 16 and be equivalent of the Don Glaciation of eastern Europe. (C) 2004 NERC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1988,2004,5,4,Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park| Montana| USA,Little Ice Age (14th-19th centuries A. D.) glacial maxima and 20th century retreat have been well documented in Glacier National Park| Montana| USA. However| the influence of regional and Pacific Basin driven climate variability on these events is poorly understood. We use tree-ring reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial accumulation and summer ablation| respectively| over the past three centuries. These records show that the 1850's glacial maximum was likely produced by similar to70 yrs of cool/wet summers coupled with high snowpack. Post 1850| glacial retreat coincides with an extended period (>50 yr) of summer drought and low snowpack culminating in the exceptional events of 1917 to 1941 when retreat rates for some glaciers exceeded 100 m/yr. This research highlights potential local and ocean-based drivers of glacial dynamics| and difficulties in separating the effects of global climate change from regional expressions of decadal-scale climate variability. 6415,2004,2,4,Decline of arctic-alpine plants at the southern margin of their range following a decade of climatic warming,Question: Have recent increases in temperature caused a decline in arctic-alpine plants at the southern margin of their range? Location: Above tree line; Glacier National Park| Montana| western USA. Methods: We monitored the abundance of seven arctic-alpine vascular plants at or near the southern limits of their ranges at three sites in Glacier National Park| Montana from 1989 through 2002. In addition we recorded canopy cover of all plant species in sample plots once at the beginning and again at the end of the study. Results: Mean summer temperature during this period averaged 0.6 degreesC higher than the previous four decades. Results of ordinations with non-metric multidimensional scaling suggested that vegetation moved toward the dry end of a moisture gradient at two sites during the course of the study. At the same time four of the peripheral arctic-alpine indicator species demonstrated 31-65% declines in abundance| while none increased. Conclusions: We cannot rigorously infer causality from our descriptive study; however| changes in both indicator species and the vegetation matrix were consistent with predictions of climate-induced extirpation of high-elevation species and the northern migration of floras. Our results also suggest that species responded to the decade of warming individualistically with little relationship to growth form. 1927,2004,2,4,Declining extent of open-water refugia for top predators in Baffin Bay and adjacent waters,Global climate change is expected to severely impact Arctic ecosystems| yet predictions of impacts are complicated by region-specific patterns and nonuniform trends. Twentyfour open-water overwintering areas (or "microhabitats") were identified to be of particular importance for eight seabird and marine mammal species in the eastern Canadian High Arctic and Baffin Bay. Localized trends in the available fraction of open-water were examined in March during 1979-2001| derived from approximate sea ice concentrations from satellite-based microwave telemetry. Declines in the fraction of open-water were identified at microhabitats in Baffin Bay| Davis Strait| coastal West Greenland| and Lancaster Sound. Increases in open-water were observed in Hudson Bay| Hudson Strait| and Foxe Basin. The biological importance of each microhabitat was examined based on species distribution and abundance. Potential consequences of reduced open-water for top marine predators include impacts on foraging efficiency and oxygen and prey availability. 6583,2004,2,4,Decomposition of mountain birch leaf litter at the forest-tundra ecotone in the Fennoscandian mountains in relation to climate and soil conditions,Litter decomposition is a key process in terrestrial ecosystems| releasing nutrients| returning CO2 to the atmosphere| and contributing to the formation of humus. Litter decomposition is strongly controlled both by climate and by litter quality: global warming scenarios involving shifts in vegetation communities are therefore of particular interest in this context. The objective of the present study was to quantify the role of climatic environment and underlying substrate chemistry for the decomposition of standard mountain birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh. spp. czerepanovii) leaf litter at four sites| spanning the forest-tundra ecotone| in the Fennoscandian mountain range. Litter quality effects were thus held constant| but the study incorporated systematic changes in (i) latitude/altitude| (ii) 'continentality'| and (iii) vegetation community at each site| together with (iv) experimental manipulation of temperature using passive warming systems. The study was undertaken during a 3 year period| and forms part of a broader investigation of forest-tundra ecotone dynamics in the Fennoscandian mountains. Our results showed (1) higher decomposition rates in forest sites compared to tundra| (2) that the difference between the two vegetation communities was most pronounced at the more maritime sites| and (3) that chemistry of litter remaining after the three years experiment varied according to site and vegetation community (e.g. at the most southerly site| more lignin had decomposed at tundra communities compared with the forest). (4) Surface temperature explained 58% of the variation in mass loss at forest sites; at tundra sites| however| we hypothesise that litter moisture content was the more important factor. (5) Experimental warming lent weight to this hypothesis by reducing rates of mass loss: this reduction was likely the result of surface soil drying| an artefact of the warming treatment. We conclude that a replacement of tundra by forest would likely accelerate litter decomposition both via changes in surface and near-surface temperature and moisture regimes| although the strength of this response will vary between maritime and continental parts of the mountain range. 1942,2004,2,4,Decomposition of soil and plant carbon from pasture systems after 9 years of exposure to elevated CO2: impact on C cycling and modeling,Elevated atmospheric CO2 may alter decomposition rates through changes in plant material quality and through its impact on soil microbial activity. This study examines whether plant material produced under elevated CO2 decomposes differently from plant material produced under ambient CO2. Moreover| a long-term experiment offered a unique opportunity to evaluate assumptions about C cycling under elevated CO2 made in coupled climate-soil organic matter (SOM) models. Trifolium repens and Lolium perenne plant materials| produced under elevated (60 Pa) and ambient CO2 at two levels of N fertilizer (140 vs. 560 kg ha(-1) yr(-1))| were incubated in soil for 90 days. Soils and plant materials used for the incubation had been exposed to ambient and elevated CO2 under free air carbon dioxide enrichment conditions and had received the N fertilizer for 9 years. The rate of decomposition of L. perenne and T. repens plant materials was unaffected by elevated atmospheric CO2 and rate of N fertilization. Increases in L. perenne plant material C : N ratio under elevated CO2 did not affect decomposition rates of the plant material. If under prolonged elevated CO2 changes in soil microbial dynamics had occurred| they were not reflected in the rate of decomposition of the plant material. Only soil respiration under L. perenne| with or without incorporation of plant material| from the low-N fertilization treatment was enhanced after exposure to elevated CO2. This increase in soil respiration was not reflected in an increase in the microbial biomass of the L. perenne soil. The contribution of old and newly sequestered C to soil respiration| as revealed by the C-13-CO2 signature| reflected the turnover times of SOM-C pools as described by multipool SOM models. The results do not confirm the assumption of a negative feedback induced in the C cycle following an increase in CO2| as used in coupled climate-SOM models. Moreover| this study showed no evidence for a positive feedback in the C cycle following additional N fertilization. 6591,2004,2,4,Dehardening of mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp czerepanovii) ecotypes at elevated winter temperatures,The aim was to elucidate the effects of elevated winter temperatures on the dehardening process of mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) ecotypes and to evaluate their sus. ceptibility to frost damage under warming climate conditions. Ecotypes from 60 to 71 degreesN latitudes and 20-750 m altitudes were grown in northern Norway (70degrees N) and subjected to simulation of the photoperiod in southern Norway (60degrees N) by artificial illumination from September onwards. In November| the seedlings were transported to the south (60degrees N) to overwinter at ambient or 4degreesC above ambient temperatures. Frost hardiness and lipid peroxidation were determined during January-April. The higher winter temperature accelerated dehardening| and there were significant differences between the ecotypes. Among tree individuals of southern origin| the alpine ecotype exhibited the most rapid rate of dehardening| whereas the oceanic type showed the slowest rate. Lipid peroxidation supported the above findings. Since temperature elevation was unequal for the ecotypes with respect to climatic change| the frost hardiness results were normalized to obtain an equal +4degreesC temperature rise. The risk of frost injury seemed to be lowest in the northernmost ecotypes under a temperature elevation of +4degreesC| obviously due to their adaptation to a wider temperature range. 6658,2004,4,4,Demography and population dynamics of Drosera anglica and D-rotundifolia,1 We studied demography and population dynamics of the sympatric perennial herbs Drosera anglica and D. rotundifolia on a boreal bog in SE Norway. Dry mass of 2872 D. anglica plants and 2467 D. rotundifolia plants (estimated from field morphological measurements) was used to classify plants into five species-specific size classes. Demographic changes within these two populations were followed from 1995 to 1999| and within segments (quartiles) along the water table gradient and the peat productivity gradient. 2 Mortality was strongly size dependent| and varied between years| for both species; it was high for seedlings| low for the smallest mature rosettes and increased again for the largest mature rosettes. The proportion of fertile rosettes increased with increasing rosette size. Fecundity varied considerably between years| but little relative to gradient position. 3 Growth rate (lambda) was >1| except in the second year| when it fell to 0.572 for D. anglica and 0.627 for D. rotundifolia. For D. anglica small| but significant| differences were found between the two extremities of the water table gradient| and for D. rotundifolia between the second and the uppermost quartile. There was a tendency for D. anglica populations to have a lower growth rate in the most productive sites| whereas D. rotundifolia grew less on both low and high peat productivity. Elasticity analysis showed that stasis and size increase (primarily within mature stages) made major contributions to lambda for D. anglica in all years. 4 The variance in population growth rate (var lambda) was high between years| and higher for D. anglica than for D. rotundifolia| while the variance between quartiles along the two main gradients was low. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analyses revealed that for both species| differences in probabilities of transitions within mature stages| and in growth to larger stages| contributed most to var lambda. 5 The effects of global warming are uncertain: drier growing seasons would affectResearch on the geological data of Hunshandake Desert in China monsoon region revealed that Holocene summer monsoon had experienced six prevailing periods and seven weakening periods. The climatic humidity and the vegetation had also undergone the similar periodical variation influenced by the monsoon periodicity. The period when summer monsoon prevailed or winter monsoon weakened and climatic humidity and vegetation coverage relatively increased| corresponded to the global warming events; whereas the period when summer monsoon weakened or winter monsoon prevailed and climatic humidity and vegetation coverage relatively decreased| corresponded to the and events in middle to low latitudes and the cold events in North Atlantic. As for the changing regularity of summer monsoon intensity there were two distinct periodicities of 1456 years and 494 years| also these two periodicities had global significance.
6593,2004,2,4,How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change?,Aim We describe and use a model| SHIFT| to estimate potential migration due to climate change over the next 100 years. Location Eastern United States. Methods Five species| currently confined to the eastern half of the United States and not extending into Canada| were used to assess migration potential: Diospyros virginiana (persimmon)| Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum)| Oxydendrum arboreum (sourwood)| Pinus taeda (loblolly pine)| and Quercus falcata var. falcata (southern red oak). SHIFT is a matrix simulation model using simple inverse power functions to provide a distance decay of seed dispersal and is driven primarily by the abundance of the species near the boundary| the forest density within and beyond the boundary| and the distance between cells. For each cell outside the current boundary| the model creates an estimate of the probability that each unoccupied cell will become colonized over a period of 100 years. SHIFT is a 'fat-tailed' migration model that allows rare very long distance dispersal events and colonization could occur up to 500 km beyond the current distribution boundary. Model outputs were analysed using transects through sections showing relatively low and high colonization probabilities as a result of low and high densities of target trees (high source strength) as well as high densities of forest (high sink strength). We also assess migration potential for species by concentric rings around the current boundary. Results Model outputs show the generally limited nature of migration for all five species over 100 years. There is a relatively high probability of colonization within a zone of 10-20 km (depending on habitat quality and species abundance) from the current boundary| but a small probability of colonization where the distance from the current boundary exceeds about 20 km. Whether biologically plausible or not| rare very long distance migration events are not sufficient to rescue migration. Species abundance (the source strength of migration) near the range boundary carried relatively more influence than percentage forest cover (sink strength) in determining migration rates. Main conclusions The transect evaluation revealed the importance of abundance of the species near the boundary| indicating that rare species may have much more difficulty in unassisted northward migration due to climate change. The concentric rings analysis of the model outputs showed that only the first 10-20 km of area would have a reasonably high probability of colonization. Rare| long-distance events permit colonization of remote outliers| but much more needs to be understood about the likelihood of these rare events to predict the frequency of outlier establishment. 6398,2004,2,3,How strong is carbon cycle-climate feedback under global warming?,The behavior of the coupled carbon cycle and physical climate system in a global warming scenario is studied using an Earth system model including the atmosphere| land| ocean| and the carbon cycle embedded in these components. A fully coupled carbon-climate simulation and several sensitivity runs were conducted for the period of 1860 - 2100 with prescribed IPCC-SRES-A1B emission scenario. Results indicate a positive feedback to global warming from the interactive carbon cycle| with an additional increase of 90 ppmv in the atmospheric CO(2)| and 0.6 degree additional warming| thus confirming recent results from the Hadley Centre and IPSL. However| the changes in various carbon pools are more modest| largely due to the multiple limiting factors constraining terrestrial productivity and carbon loss. The large differences among the three models are manifestations of some of the poorly constrained processes such as the global strength of the CO(2) fertilization effect and the turnover time and rates of soil decomposition. 6408,2004,3,3,How to use natural ventilation to cool narrow office buildings,Concern about global warming has resulted in a resurgence of interest in naturally ventilated offices. Windows opening can| most of the time| be enough to cool the buildings. To compare various strategies| simulations with the software TAS were made to analyse zone air flows| temperature evolution and needs for cooling in an office. Simulations show that sufficient day or night ventilation rate can be reached by window opening| even if wind characteristics are unfavourable. We studied which should be the size| shape and location of the window apertures to reach sufficient ventilation rates. We finally analysed the impact of the wind orientation and the degree of wind protection of the building on these ventilation rates. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6502,2004,2,3,Hydro-climatic trends of the Yellow River basin for the last 50 years,Kendall's test was used to analyze the hydro-climatic trends of the Yellow River over the last half century. The results show that: ( 1) the runoff of the basin has decreased even after allowing for human uses| ( 2) the watershed has become warmer with a more significant increase in minimum temperature than in mean and maximum temperatures| and ( 3) no significant change in precipitation trend was observed. The major reasons for these results include human activities| global warming| land use/land cover change| and others| such as accuracy of natural runoff estimation| precipitation characteristics| groundwater exploitation| water transfer| and snowmelt. Homogeneity analysis indicated that precipitation| temperature| maximum temperature| and minimum temperature were all heterogeneous and the trends varied from region to region and from month to month. If the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of continued warming in the region during the 21st century are correct| the present results then suggest that the trend towards reduced runoff is likely to lead to exacerbated problems for agriculture| industry| urban communities| and the overall regional environment. 6551,2004,2,3,Ice growth in the greenhouse: A seductive paradox but unrealistic scenario,The recent IPCC (2001) assessment stated that "Most models show weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Thermohaline Circulation (THC)| which contributes to a reduction of surface warming in the northern North Atlantic. Even in models where the THC weakens| there is still a warming over Europe due to increased greenhouse gases." However| there is still a widespread misunderstanding of the possible consequence of climate change on the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning. In particular| it is often touted| especially in the media| that a possible consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is: "the onset of the next ice age". Here we document the history of this misconception and quantitatively show how it is impossible for an ice age to ensue as a consequence of global warming. Through analysis of the paleoclimate record as well as a number of climate model simulations| we also suggest that it is very unlikely that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning will cease to be active in the near future. We further suggest that a region where intermediate water formation may shut down is in the Labrador Sea| although this has more minor consequences for climate than if deep water formation in the Nordic Seas were to cease. 1972,2004,2,4,Identity and diversity of coral endosymbionts (zooxanthellae) from three Palauan reefs with contrasting bleaching| temperature and shading histories,The potential of corals to associate with more temperature-tolerant strains of algae (zooxanthellae| Symbiodinium) can have important implications for the future of coral reefs in an era of global climate change. In this study| the genetic identity and diversity of zooxanthellae was investigated at three reefs with contrasting histories of bleaching mortality| water temperature and shading| in the Republic of Palau (Micronesia). Single-stranded conformation polymorphism and sequence analysis of the ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS)1 region was used for genotyping. A chronically warm but partly shaded coral reef in a marine lake that is hydrographically well connected to the surrounding waters harboured only two single-stranded conformation polymorphism profiles (i.e. zooxanthella communities). It consisted only of Symbiodinium D in all 13 nonporitid species and two Porites species investigated| with the remaining five Porites harbouring C.. Despite the high temperature in this lake (> 0.5degrees above ambient)| this reef did not suffer coral mortality during the (1998) bleaching event| however| no bleaching-sensitive coral families and genera occur in the coral community. This setting contrasts strongly with two other reefs with generally lower temperatures| in which 10 and 12 zooxanthella communities with moderate to low proportions of clade D zooxanthellae were found. The data indicate that whole coral assemblages| when growing in elevated seawater temperatures and at reduced irradiance| can be composed of colonies associated with the more thermo-tolerant clade D zooxanthellae. Future increases in seawater temperature might| therefore| result in an increasing prevalence of Symbiodinium phylotype D in scleractinian corals| possibly associated with a loss of diversity in both zooxanthellae and corals. 1924,2004,2,3,Impact analysis of climate change for an Alpine catchment using high resolution dynamic downscaling of ECHAM4 time slices,Global climate change affects spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and so has a major impact on surface and subsurface water balances. While global climate models are designed to describe climate change on global or continental scales| their resolution is too coarse for them to he suitable for describing regional climate change. Therefore| regional climate models are applied to downscale the coarse meteorological fields to a much higher spatial resolution to take account of regional climate phenomena. The changes of atmospheric state due to regional climate change must be translated into surface and sub-surface water fluxes so that the impact on water balances in specific catchments can be investigated. This can be achieved by the coupled regional climatic/hydrological simulations presented here. The non-hydrostatic regional climate model MCCM was used for dynamic downscaling for two time slices of a global climate model Simulation with the GCM ECHAM4 (IPCC scenario IS92a| 'business as usual) from 2.8 degrees x 2.8 degrees to 4 x 4 km(2) resolution for the years 1991-1999 and 203 1-2039. This allowed derivation of detailed maps showing changes in precipitation and temperature in a region of southern Germany and the central Alps. The performance of the downscaled ECHAM4 to reproduce the seasonality of precipitation in central Europe for the recent climate was investigated by comparison with dynamically downscaled ECMWF reanalyses in 20 x 20 km2 resolution. The downscaled ECHAM4 Fields underestimate precipitation significantly in summer. The ratio of mean monthly downscaled ECHAM4 and ECMWF| precipitation showed little variation. so it was used to adjust the course of precipitation for the ECHAM4/MCCM fields before it was applied in the hydrological model. The high resolution meteorological fields were aggregated to 8-hour time steps and applied to the distributed hydrological model WaSiM to simulate the water balance of the alpine catchment of the river Ammer (c. 700 km(2)) at 100 x 100 m(2) resolution. To check the reliability of the Coupled regional climatic/hydrological simulation results for the recent climate| they were compared with those of a station-based hydrological simulation for the period 1991-1999. This study shows the changes in the temperature and precipitation distributions in the catchment from the recent climate to the future climate scenario and how these will affect the frequency distribution of runoff. 6677,2004,2,4,Impact of desertification and global warming on soil carbon in northern China,While the global rise in mean day/night and seasonal air temperatures ( ATE) of recent decades is well documented| its influence on levels of soil-sequestered organic carbon| and on emission rates of CO2 and other greenhouse gases emanating therefrom| is only beginning to garner serious attention. This has resulted in a limited but growing understanding| particularly in the context of the lands of the Chinese subcontinent| of the mechanisms underlying such emissions. Some 340 soil samples from 12 different sandy land regions in China were analyzed for soil organic carbon (SOC) content. Stepwise regression identified correlations between SOC and a number of climatic factors measured at the sampling sites: winter| summer| nighttime and daytime ATE| and precipitation. In desertified lands| net SOC losses showed a direct correlation with precipitation but no significant relationship with mean ATE. However| in northwest and northeast China| decreases in SOC were linked to rises in day/night and seasonal ATE| while in north central China they were linked to a rise in mean ATE. Between 1900 and 1998| mean ATE in the northwest| northeast| and north central regions rose by 0.14E| 0.28E| and 0.15E decade(-1)| respectively. Meanwhile| precipitation dropped by 25 mm decade(-1) across these regions. In this study| day/night and seasonal ATE showed differing levels of significance with respect to their linear relationships with SOC content. Driven by rises in day/night and seasonal ATE| long-term alterations to global ecosystemic processes| particularly the carbon cycle| may quantitatively and qualitatively alter the flora of desertified ecosystems. Our study suggests that| over the last 40 years| anthropogenic factors| precipitation| and rises in ATE (particularly nighttime and winter) have contributed 47%| 26%| and 20%| respectively| of greenhouse gas emissions from SOC. It is apparent that for China's desertified lands| human activity is the primary causative factor in the release of SOC-derived greenhouse gases to the atmosphere| while geography and climatic extremes individually play a lesser role. 2011,2004,2,4,Impact of global warming and locally changing climate on tropical cloud forest bats,Significant changes in local climate and correlated changes in non mammalian vertebrate populations have been documented in the Monteverde cloud forest in the Tileran Mountains of northern Costa Rica| leading to the prediction that corroborative changes should occur in bat populations. Habitat changes resulting from development for ecotourism| including a 19% increase in forest| might also be expected to impact bat populations. Analysis of data collected between 1973 and 1999 in Monteverde supports the hypothesis| although changes are less dramatic than those shown for birds| reptiles| and amphibians in earlier studies. Capture rates did not change significantly during the 27 year sample period| but relative species abundance increased| and at least 24 new species (of mostly lowland distribution) were recorded in the study area during the 1980s| 1990s| and through early 2002. These changes are likely a consequence of climatic change following global warming| forest clearing. and an increase in amount of secondary forest. This latter factor is a result of changes in land use due to development for tourism. 6687,2004,2,4,Impact of global warming on environments for apple and satsuma mandarin production estimated from changes of the annual mean temperature,This study was undertaken to assess the impact of global warming on the production in Japan of apple (Malus domestica Borkh.) and satsuma mandarin (Citrus unshiu Marc.). The annual mean temperature was used to simulate possible changes in favorable regions for the cultivation of apple and satsuma mandarin. The temperature ranges assumed to be appropriate for fruit production were 6-14 degreesC and 7-13 degreesC for apples and 15-18 degreesC for satsuma mandarins| respectively. The database of "Climate Change Mesh Data (Japan)" was used to calculate annual mean temperatures under the climate change scenario| derived from four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) at all 10 X 10 km mesh. It was predicted that the favorable regions to cultivate apples and satsuma mandarins will gradually move northward. In 2060's the plains of central Tohoku will be unfavorable for apple cultivation| while most of Hokkaido will be suitable. The plains of northern Tohoku are predicted to attain the annual mean temperatures higher than those of the current main producing districts. By 2060's| the favorable areas for satsuma mandarin production will possibly move from the southern coastal sites to inland areas of western and southern Japan| the plains of Kanto and the littoral zones of the Japan Sea in the central and western Japan and in southern Tohoku. Therefore| global warming will greatly affect the cultivation environment of apples and satsuma mandarins in Japan by the middle of the 21st century.
6455,2004,2,4,Impact of global warming on the growing cycles of three forage systems in upland areas of southeastern France,The simulations supplied by a combination of a global climate model and a weather generator allowed the creation of two climate scenarios including an increase and/or monthly variations in temperature for the 2070-2100 horizon| which were compared with two currently available series (1961-1990 and 1990-2000). Three forage systems applied in upland areas of southern France were simulated using the STICS model (silage maize| perennial alfalfa and grasses) and the outputs were introduced into a digital elevation model. We noted changes in precocity which allowed the sowing of silage maize varieties with longer crop cycles at lower altitudes and an enlargement of the crop zone above 700-800 m. When introducing monthly temperature variations| we observed major frost damage which decreased maize yields. As for gramineous and alfalfa grasslands| we obtained a lengthening in the growing period with earlier first cut dates and sometimes the possibility of a supplementary cut. 2063,2004,2,4,Impact of soil warming and shading on colonization and community structure of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in roots of a native grassland community,Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have a major influence on the structure| responses and below-ground C allocation of plant communities. Our lack of understanding of the response of AM fungi to factors such as light and temperature is an obstacle to accurate prediction of the impact of global climate change on ecosystem functioning. In order to investigate this response| we divided a grassland site into 24 plots| each either unshaded or partly shaded with soil either unheated or heated by 3degreesC at 2 cm depth. In both short-term studies in spring and autumn| and in a 1-year-long study| we measured root length colonization (LRC) by AM and non-AM fungi. For selected root samples| DNA sequences were amplified by PCR with fungal-specific primers for part of the small sub-unit (SSU) rRNA gene. In spring| the total LRC increased over 6 weeks from 12% to 25%. Shading significantly reduced AM but increased non-AM fungal colonization| while soil warming had no effect. In the year-long study| colonization by AM fungi peaked in summer| whereas non-AM colonization peaked in autumn| when there was an additive effect of shading and soil warming that reduced AM but increased non-AM fungi. Stepwise regression revealed that light received within the 7 days prior to sampling was the most significant factor in determining AM LRC and that mean temperature was the most important influence on non-AM LRC. Loglinear analysis confirmed that there were no seasonal or treatment effects on the host plant community. Ten AM fungal sequence types were identified that clustered into two families of the Glomales| Glomaceae and Gigasporaceae. Three other sequence types were of non-AM fungi| all Ascomycotina. AM sequence types showed seasonal variation and shading impacts: loglinear regression analysis revealed changes in the AM fungal community with time| and a reduction of one Glomus sp. under shade| which corresponded to a decrease in the abundance of Trifolium repens. We suggest that further research investigating any impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning must not only incorporate their natural AM fungal communities but should also focus on niche separation and community dynamics of AM fungi. 2031,2004,2,4,Impact of temperature on the arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) symbiosis: growth responses of the host plant and its AM fungal partner,The growth response of the hyphae of mycorrhizal fungi has been determined| both when plant and fungus together and when only the fungus was exposed to a temperature change. Two host plant species| Plantago lanceolata and Holcus lanatus| were grown separately in pots inoculated with the mycorrhizal fungus Glomus mosseae at 20/18degreesC (day/night); half of the pots were then transferred to 12/10degreesC. Plant and fungal growth were determined at six sequential destructive harvests. A second experiment investigated the direct effect of temperature on the length of the extra-radical mycelium (ERM) of three mycorrhizal fungal species. Growth boxes were divided in two equal compartments by a 20 mum mesh| allowing only the ERM and not roots to grow into a fungal compartment| which was either heated (+8degreesC) or kept at ambient temperature. ERM length (L-ERM) was determined on five sampling dates. Growth of H. lanatus was little affected by temperature| whereas growth of P. lanceolata increased with temperature| and both specific leaf area (SLA) and specific root length (SRL) increased independently of plant size. Percentage of colonized root (LRC) and L-ERM were positively correlated with temperature when in symbiosis with P. lanceolata| but differences in LRC were a function of plant biomass. Colonization was very low in H. lanatus roots and there was no significant temperature effect. In the fungal compartment L-ERM increased over time and was greatest for Glomus mosseae. Heating the fungal compartment significantly increased L-ERM in two of the three species but did not affect LRC. However| it significantly increased SRL of roots in the plant compartment| suggesting that the fungus plays a regulatory role in the growth dynamics of the symbiosis. These temperature responses have implications for modelling carbon dynamics under global climate change. 6370,2004,2,3,Impacts of climate change on methane emissions from wetlands,[ 1] We have included climate-sensitive methane emissions from wetlands within the GISS climate model using a linear parameterization derived from a detailed process model. The geographic distribution of wetlands is also climate dependent. Doubled CO2 simulations using this model show an increase in annual average wetland methane emissions from 156 to 277 Tg/yr| a rise of 78%. The bulk of this increase is due to enhanced emissions from existing tropical wetlands. Additionally| high northern latitude wetland areas expand and emissions nearly triple during Northern summer. The global increase represents -20% of present-day inventories. These large values indicate that the potential response of natural emissions to climate change merit greater study| and should be included in projections of future global warming and tropospheric pollution. 6533,2004,2,4,Impacts of winter-NAO on March cooling trends over subtropical Eurasia continent in the recent half century,At odds with global warming trends| surface air temperature over large subtropical Eurasia continent in spring March exhibits unique strong cooling over the last half century. The cause for this cooling is shown to be related to Winter (DJF) North Atlantic Oscillation (W-NAO). Positive values of W-NAO provoke cooling signals in northern Africa continent simultaneously from surface to tropopause. The W-NAO generated signals barotropically extend eastward over most of subtropical Eurasia and reaches eastern China in March. 6664,2004,3,3,Implications of changes in household stoves and fuel use in China,In recent decades China has pursued a number of national energy policies as integral components of its 5-year development plans including the unprecedented dissemination of several generations of fuel saving stoves in the majority of its rural populations. These programs| although designed for conservation of fuel wood resources and using deceptively simple technologies| have much wider impacts on both a national and a global level through their impacts on health and emission of pollutants that have warming consequences for the atmosphere. In the current manuscript we examine these implications using emissions data collected as part of a comprehensive evaluation of 28 typical stove/fuel technologies in common use. We illustrate that relative benefits of biomass and fossil fuels| and subsequently policies regarding promotion of different fuel types| are dependent on which products of incomplete combustion are considered. if one only considers gases included within the Kyoto protocol| the burning of renewably harvested biomass appears to have an advantage over kerosene or LPG as a large component of PIC emissions from inefficient biomass stoves are not included in the calculation. If| however| one considers a more comprehensive list of compounds that have direct or indirect effects on global warming| at best the burning of fuel wood when 100% renewably harvested has a similar GWC to these better quality fuels| and| under conditions experienced in many rural areas of the world| often considerably worse. Comprehensive evaluation would require all major radiative forcing agents to be considered| even though that presents considerable difficulties considering reported uncertainties of some global warming potentials. The stove types in this study demonstrated a wide range of emission factors. This offers an effective mechanism for achieving short-term reduction in emissions of health damaging pollutants| and also accomplishes the longer-term goal of reducing of greenhouse gas emissions. Not all the improved stoves resulted in benefits on all levels| however| and it is possible| therefore| to implement policies with the best intentions for alleviating the burden of collecting fuel| which may actually| result in increased exposure of the population to health damaging pollutants and increased global warming contributions. In addition| the difference between global warming commitments for renewable and non-renewable harvesting of biomass fuels was of such magnitude| especially compared to differences between stove types| that more detailed accounting of the renewable nature of the harvesting of biomass fuels is essential and has profound implications for global accounting of carbon emissions and credit through the clean development mechanism. Clearly| however| evaluation of biomass burning in residential stoves requires a more holistic| or full fuel cycle approach that considers both the production of the fuel wood| the burning of the fuel| sequestration of gases during the next growing season and the environmental degradation and shift in fuels that may occur due to mining of the resource. (C) 2002 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6586,2004,2,3,Implications of increased Greenland surface melt under global-warming scenarios: ice-sheet simulations,The Greenland ice sheet is likely to make a faster contribution to sea-level rise in a warming world than previously believed| based on numerical modelling using a parameterization of recent results showing surface-meltwater lubrication of ice flow. Zwally et al. (Science 297(557) (2002) 218) documented correlation between increased ice velocity and increased surface melt (as parameterized by positive degree days). They| argued that surface water is piped directly to the bed with little delay| causing increased basal-water pressures and basal-sliding velocities| an effect not included in recent Greenland ice-sheet models known to the authors. Using| the Pennsylvania State University/University of Chicago thermomechanical flowline model| numerous Simulations were conducted to test a wide range of parameter space linking surface melt with a new sliding law based on the Zwally et al. data under three different global warming scenarios (2 x CO2| 4 x CO2| and 8 x CO2). Comparisons to reconstructions generated with a traditional sliding parameterization illustrate an enhanced sensitivity of the ice sheet to Surface warming resulting in higher ablation rates. additional thinning| and retreat of the margin| and a reduction in ice volume leading to an increased contribution to global sea-level rise. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2050,2004,2,4,Importance of climate change for the ranges| communities and conservation of birds,In this review| we focus on the effects of global climate change on the size and position of geographic ranges and the richness and composition of bird communities. Plenty of evidence exists demonstrating that range boundaries of birds are correlated with climatic factors. In general| the northern range limit of species seems to be influenced rather by abiotic factors such as cold temperatures. The southern range limit of species appears to be determined by climatic factors such as heat or lack of water in and regions and by biotic factors in more humid regions. For communities| species richness is best predicted by measures of ambient temperature at high latitudes and by water-related variables in low-latitude| high-temperature regions. Models predicting range changes under climate change show idiosyncratic responses of different species with range contractions being more frequent than range expansions. Range shifts have been observed in temperate regions with northward shifts of northern range boundaries and no consistent trend of southern range boundaries. Further| upslope movements have been observed on a tropical mountain. For communities| increases in species richness are predicted for northern latitude and high-elevation sites and declines of species richness in and regions. With increasing winter temperature| declines in the proportion of migratory species in bird communities have been predicted and observed. Conservation consequences of global climate change are especially high threats to species in and environments| expected movements of species out of protected areas and increasing land use conflicts. In general| surprisingly few studies document effects of climate change on birds' ranges and communities. Given that range contractions and declines of species richness often initiate conservation efforts| further studies are urgently needed. 1934,2004,3,4,Improving drought tolerance in maize: a view from industry,Significant yield losses in maize (Zea mays L.) from drought are expected to increase with global climate change as temperatures rise and rainfall distribution changes in key traditional production areas. The success of conventional crop improvement over the past 50 years for drought tolerance forms a baseline against which new genetic methods must be compared. Selection based on performance in multi-environment trials (MET) has increased grain yield under drought through increased yield potential and kernel set| rapid silk exertion| and reduced barrenness| though at a lower rate than under optimal conditions. Knowledge of the physiology of drought tolerance has been used to dissect the trait into a series of key processes. This has been complemented by genetic dissection through the identification of QTL associated with these same traits. Both have been used to identify suitable organ- and temporal-specific promoters and structural genes. Phenotyping capacity has not kept pace with the exponential increase in genotypic knowledge| and large-scale managed stress environments (MSE) are now considered essential to further progress. These environments provide ideal settings for conducting massively parallel transcript profiling studies| and for validating candidate regions and genes. Genetic and crop physiological models of key processes are now being used to confirm the value of traits for target environments| and to suggest efficient breeding strategies. Studies of gene to phenotype relationships suggest that most putative drought tolerance QTL identified thus far are likely to have limited utility for applied breeding because of their dependency on genetic background or their sensitivity to the environment| coupled with a general lack of understanding of the biophysical bases of these context dependencies. Furthermore| the sample of weather conditions encountered during progeny selection within the multi environment testing of conventional breeding programs can profoundly affect allele frequency in breeding populations and the stress tolerance of elite commercial products. We conclude that while gains in kernels per plant can be made by exploiting native genetic variation among elite breeding lines| improvements in functional stay-green or in root distribution and function may require additional genetic variation from outside the species. Genomic tools and the use of model plants are considered indispensable tools in this search for new ways of optimizing maize yield under stress. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6492,2004,3,4,Impulse partial discharge and breakdown characteristics of rod-plane gaps in air and N-2 gases,In response to growing environmental concerns| we attempted to develop switchgear without using SF6 gas. In our research| we used compressed air and pure N-2 as an electrical insulation gas| because of their low global warming potential. In this paper| we examined the impulse breakdown and impulse partial discharge characteristics under various conditions related to nonuniformity of the electric field. The experimental results show that the breakdown voltage (BDV) of air is higher than that of pure N-2 gas under highly nonuniform field conditions in the rod-plane gap. On the other hand| the discharge inception voltage of air and N-2 were almost the same. Furthermore| first partial discharge (PD)| leader discharge| and its transition to the breakdown were successfully observed through the measurement of discharge current and light emissions under impulse voltage application. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals| Inc. 6590,2004,2,4,In situ photosynthetic freezing tolerance for plants exposed to a global warming manipulation in the Rocky Mountains| Colorado| USA,This research tested the hypothesis that experimental infrared warming will reduce photosynthesis for the evergreen shrub Artemisia tridentata and the subalpine| herbaceous Erythronium grandiflorum exposed to an in situ experimental freezing event during the spring snowmelt period. Photosynthetic tolerance of freezing was measured for plants growing under infrared OR) warming at 3050 m in the Rocky Mountains| Colorado| USA. In situ freezing was imposed using cold nitrogen gas (from a pressurized container of liquid nitrogen) passed through a heat exchanger placed on top of stems and leaves. Plant water potential| photosynthetic CO2 assimilation| and stomata] conductance to water vapor were higher for both species on IR-warmed compared with control plots. For A. tridentata| IR warming caused enhanced tolerance of in situ freezing temperatures. There was no difference in freezing tolerance for E. grandiflorum on control vs IR plots. These results suggest that some species will not be negatively affected by freezing| whereas others may exhibit enhanced tolerance of subzero air temperatures| under a future warmer climate in which snowmelt occurs earlier in the year. 6427,2004,2,4,Increasing river discharge in the Eurasian Arctic: Consideration of dams| permafrost thaw| and fires as potential agents of change,Discharge from Eurasian rivers to the Arctic Ocean has increased significantly in recent decades| but the reason for this trend remains unclear. Increased net atmospheric moisture transport from lower to higher latitudes in a warming climate has been identified as one potential mechanism. However| uncertainty associated with estimates of precipitation in the Arctic makes it difficult to confirm whether or not this mechanism is responsible for the change in discharge. Three alternative mechanisms are dam construction and operation| permafrost thaw| and increasing forest fires. Here we evaluate the potential influence of these three mechanisms on changes in discharge from the six largest Eurasian Arctic rivers (Yenisey| Ob'| Lena| Kolyma| Pechora| and Severnaya Dvina) between 1936 and 1999. Comprehensive discharge records made it possible to evaluate the influence of dams directly. Data on permafrost thaw and fires in the watersheds of the Eurasian Arctic rivers are more limited. We therefore use a combination of data and modeling scenarios to explore the potential of these two mechanisms as drivers of increasing discharge. Dams have dramatically altered the seasonality of discharge but are not responsible for increases in annual values. Both thawing of permafrost and increased fires may have contributed to changes in discharge| but neither can be considered a major driver. Cumulative thaw depths required to produce the observed increases in discharge are unreasonable: Even if all of the water from thawing permafrost were converted to discharge| a minimum of 4 m thawed evenly across the combined permafrost area of the six major Eurasian Arctic watersheds would have been required. Similarly| sensitivity analysis shows that the increases in fires that would have been necessary to drive the changes in discharge are unrealistic. Of the potential drivers considered here| increasing northward transport of moisture as a result of global warming remains the most viable explanation for the observed increases in Eurasian Arctic river discharge. 6354,2004,2,4,Influence of culture temperature on the growth| biochemical composition and fatty acid profiles of six Antarctic microalgae,The growth| biochemical composition and fatty acid profiles of six Antarctic microalgae cultured at different temperatures| ranging from 4| 6| 9| 14| 20 to 30 degrees C| were compared. The algae were isolated from seawater| freshwater| soil and snow samples collected during our recent expeditions to Casey| Antarctica| and are currently deposited in the University of Malaya Algae Culture Collection (UMACC). The algae chosen for the study were Chlamydomonas UMACC 229| Chlorella UMACC 234| Chlorella UMACC 237| Klebsormidium UMACC 227| NaviculaUMACC 231 and StichococcusUMACC 238. All the isolates could grow at temperatures up to 20 degrees C; three isolates| namely Navicula UMACC 231 and the two Chlorella isolates ( UMACC 234 and UMACC 237) grew even at 30 degrees C. Both Chlorella UMACC 234 and Stichococcus UMACC 238 had broad optimal temperatures for growth| ranging from 6 to 20 degrees C (mu = 0.19 - 0.22 day(-1)) and 4 to 14 degrees C (mu = 0.13 - 0.16 day(-1))| respectively. In contrast| optimal growth temperatures for Navicula UMACC 231 and Chlamydomonas UMACC 229 were 4 degrees C (mu = 0.34 day(-1)) and 6 - 9 degrees C (mu = 0.39 - 0.40 day(-1))| respectively. The protein content of the Antarctic algae was markedly affected by culture temperature. All except Navicula UMACC 231 and Stichococcus UMACC 238 contained higher amount of proteins when grown at low temperatures ( 6 - 9 degrees C). The percentage of PUFA| especially 20: 5 in Navicula UMACC 231 decreased with increasing culture temperature. However| the percentages of unsaturated fatty acids did not show consistent trend with culture temperature for the other algae studied. 6697,2004,2,4,Influence of temperature on the effects of artificially enhanced UV-B radiation on aquatic bryophytes under laboratory conditions,We examined| under laboratory conditions| the influence of temperature (2 degreesC vs. 10 degreesC) on the physiological responses of two aquatic bryophytes from a mountain stream to artificially enhanced UV-B radiation for 82 d. These organisms may be exposed naturally to relatively low temperatures and high levels of UV-B radiation| and this combination is believed to increase the adverse effects of UV-B radiation. In the moss Fontinalis antipyretica| UV-B-treated samples showed severe physiological damages| including significant decreases in chlorophyll (Chl) and carotenoid (Car) contents| Chl a/b and Chl/phaeopigment ratios| Chl a fluorescence parameters F-v/F-m and Phi(PS2)| electron transport rate (ETRmax)| and growth. In the liverwort Jungermannia cordifolia| UV-B radiation hardly caused any physiological change except for growth reduction. Thus| this liverwort seemed to be more tolerant to UV-B radiation than the moss under the specific experimental conditions used| maybe partly due to the accumulation of UV-B absorbing compounds. The influence of temperature on the effects of UV-B radiation depended on the species: the higher the UV-B tolerance| the lower the influence of temperature. Also| different physiological variables showed varied responses to this influence. Particularly| the lower temperature used in our study enhanced the adverse effects of UV-B radiation on important physiological variables such as Fv/Fm| growth| and Chl/phaeopigment ratios in the UV-B-sensitive F antipyretica| but not in the more UV-B-tolerant J. cordifolia. Thus| the adverse effects of cold and UV-B radiation were apparently additive in the moss| but this additiveness was lacking in the liverwort. The Principal Components Analyses (PCA) conducted for both species with the physiological data obtained after 36 and 82 d of culture confirmed the above results. Under natural conditions| the relatively high water temperatures in summer might facilitate the acclimation of aquatic bryophytes from mountain streams to high levels of UV-B radiation. This may be relevant to predict the consequences of concomitant global warming and increasing UV-B radiation. 6531,2004,2,4,Influence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave on El Nino and its multidecadal changes from 1950 to 2001,[1] The slow eastward phase propagation of covarying sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) persisted in the midlatitude Southern Ocean from 1950 to 2001. Its northern extent reached into the subtropical South Indian and South Pacific oceans| where it influenced the magnitude and phase of El Nino in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This is corroborated by the observation that multidecadal changes in the ACW can also explain multidecadal changes in the way El Nino evolved over the last half of the twentieth century. Before 1977| El Nino evolved from the slow eastward phase propagation of a coupled SST/SLP wave across the subtropical South Pacific Ocean to South America| then equatorward along the eastern boundary to the equator. During this epoch| the ACW expanded equatorward into a warmer subtropical South Pacific Ocean| accounting for the subtropical coupled SST/SLP wave that initiated El Nino. After 1977| El Nino evolved from the slow eastward phase propagation of a coupled SST/SLP wave across the tropical Pacific Ocean. During this epoch| the ACW receded from a colder subtropical South Pacific Ocean but expanded into a warmer subtropical South Indian Ocean. There it spawned a coupled SST/SLP wave directed equatorward into the Warm Pool north of Australia| thereafter propagating eastward into the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean to initiate El Nino. If this pattern of global warming persists into the 21st century| then the ACW will continue to influence El Nino through the South Indian Ocean. 6384,2004,2,4,Influence of warming and enchytraeid activities on soil CO2 and CH4 fluxes,To determine the sum of 'direct' and 'indirect' effects of climatic change on enchytraeid activity and C fluxes from an organic soil we assessed the influence of temperature (4| 10 and 15 degreesC incubations) on enchytraeid populations and Soil CO2 and CH4 fluxes over 116 days. Moisture was maintained at 60% of soil dry weight during the experimental period and measurements of enchytraeid biomass and numbers| and CO2 and CH4 fluxes were made after 3| 16| 33| 44| 65| 86 and 116 days. Enchytraeid population numbers and biomass increased in all temperature treatments with the greatest increase produced at 15 degreesC (to over threefold initial values by day 86). Results also showed that enchytraeid activity increased CO2 fluxes by 10.7 +/- 4.5| 3.4 +/- 4.0 and 26.8 +/- 2.6% in 4| 10 and 15 degreesC treatments| respectively| with the greatest CO| production observed at 15 degreesC for the entire 116 day incubation period (P < 0.05). The soil respiratory quotient analyses at lower temperatures (i.e. 4-10 degreesC) gave a Q(10) of 1.7 and 1.9 with and without enchytraeids| respectively. At temperatures above 10 degreesC (i.e. 10-15 degreesC) Q10 significantly increased (P<0.01) and was 25% greater in the presence of enchytraeids (Q(10)=3.4) than without (Q(10)=2.6). In contrast to CO| production| no significant relationships were observed between net CH4 fluxes and temperature and only time showed a significant effect on CH4 production (P<0.01). Total soil CO2 production was positively linked with enchytraeid biomass and mean Soil CO2-C production was 77.01 +/- 6.05 CO2-C mug mg enchytraeid tissue(-1) day(-1) irrespective of temperature treatment. This positive relationship was used to build a two step regression model to estimate the effects of temperature on enchytraeid biomass and Soil CO2 respiration in the field. Predictions of potential CO2 production were made using enchytraeid biomass data obtained in the field from two upland grassland sites (Sourhope and Great Dun Fell at the Moor House Nature Reserve| both in the UK). The findings of this work suggest that a 5 degreesC increase in atmospheric temperature above mean ambient temperature could have the potential to produce a significant increase in enchytraeid biomass resulting in a near twofold increase in soil CO2 release from both soil types. The interaction between temperature and soil biology will clearly be an important determinant of soil respiration responses to global warming. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1922,2004,3,3,Initial public perceptions of deep geological and oceanic disposal of carbon dioxide,Two studies were conducted to gauge likely public perceptions of proposals to avoid releasing carbon dioxide from power plants to the atmosphere by injecting it into deep geological formations or the deep ocean. Following a modified version of the mental model interview method| Study 1 involved face-to-face interviews with 18 nontechnical respondents. Respondents shared their beliefs after receiving basic information about the technologies and again after getting specific details. Many interviewees wanted to frame the issue in the broader context of alternative strategies for carbon management| but public understanding of mitigation strategies is limited. The second study| administered to a sample of 126 individuals| involved a closed-form survey that measured the prevalence of general beliefs revealed in study 1 and also assessed the respondent's views of these technologies. Study results suggest that the public may develop misgivings about deep injection of carbon dioxide because it can be seen as temporizing and perhaps creating future problems. Ocean injection was seen as more problematic than geological injection. An approach to public communication and regulation that is open and respectful of public concerns is likely to be a prerequisite to the successful adoption of this technology. 6341,2004,2,2,Intensification of extreme European summer precipitation in a warmer climate,Heavy and/or extended precipitation episodes with subsequent surface runoff can inflict catastrophic property damage and loss of human life. Thus| it is important to determine how the character of such events could change in response to greenhouse gas-induced global warming. Impacts of climate warming on severe precipitation events in Europe on a diurnal time scale were investigated with a high-resolution regional climate model for two of the greenhouse gas emission scenarios constructed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Nakicenovic| N.| et al.| 2000| IPCC special report on emission scenarios| 599 pp.| Cambridge University Press| Cambridge| UK). A series of 30-year time slice experiments were conducted for periods representing the present (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100). The large-scale initial and lateral boundary conditions were imposed from two different global models both originating from fully transient climate change simulations. Here. we show that although the summer time precipitation decreases over a substantial part of Europe in the scenarios analysed| an increase in the amount of precipitation exceeding the present-day 99th and in most cases even the 95th percentile is found for large areas. An analysis of daily precipitation over the entire European river catchments confirms this observation. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6624,2004,3,2,International greenhouse gas emissions when global warming is a stochastic process,This paper integrates two different but crucial aspects of global warming: free riding and uncertainty. Although certainty equivalence does not hold| an analytical solution is obtained if 'clean up' (e.g. reforestation) is possible. Assuming realistically irreversible emissions| numerical methods are necessary to obtain the value function and the implied strategies| which are shown to be unique (for the calibrated parameters). Although uncertainty stresses the importance of conservation| the incentives to free ride are almost the same. Beyond the particular application| the paper shows how to analyze stochastic| dynamic games. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons| Ltd. 1938,2004,4,3,Interpretation of Arctic aerosol properties using cluster analysis applied to observations in the Svalbard area,Atmospheric aerosols play an important role in global climate change| directly through radiative forcing and indirectly through their effect on cloud properties. Numerous measurements have been performed in the last three decades in order to characterize polar aerosols. Information about aerosol characteristics is needed to calculate induced changes in the Earth's heat balance. However| this forcing is highly variable in space and time. Accurate quantification of forcing by aerosols will require combined efforts| assimilating information from different sources such as satellite| aircraft and surface-based observations. Adding to the complexity of the problem is that the measurements themselves are often not directly comparable as they vary in spatial/temporal resolution and in the basic properties of the aerosol that they measure. Therefore it is desirable to close the gap between the differences in temporal and spatial resolution and coverage among the observational approaches. In order to keep the entire information content and to treat aerosol variability in a consistent and manageable way an approach has to be achieved which enables one to combine these data. This study presents one possibility for linking together a complex Arctic aerosol data set in terms of parameters| timescale and place of measurement as well as meteorological parameters. A cluster analysis was applied as a pattern recognition technique. The data set is classified in clusters and expressed in terms of mean statistical values| which represent the entire database and its variation. For this study| different time-series of microphysical| optical and chemical aerosol parameters as well as meteorological parameters were analysed. The database was obtained during an extensive aerosol measurement campaign| the ASTAR 2000 (Arctic Study of Tropospheric Aerosol and Radiation) field campaign| with coordinated simultaneous ground-based and airborne measurements in the vicinity of Spitsbergen (Svalbard). Furthermore| longterm measurements at two ground-based sites situated at different altitudes were incorporated into the analysis. The approach presented in this study allows the necessary linking of routine long-term measurements with short-term extensive observations. It also involves integration of intermittent vertical aerosol profile measurements. This is useful for many applications| especially in climate research where the required data coverage is large. 6464,2004,3,3,Inventory of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils of India and their global warming potential,Agricultural soils contribute towards the emission of methane and nitrous oxide| the two important greenhouse gases causing global warming. Due to the diverse soil| land-use types and climatic conditions| there are uncertainties in quantification of greenhouse gas emission from agricultural soils in India. An inventory of the emission of methane and nitrous oxide from different states in India was prepared using the methodology given by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change. For methane emission| state-specific emission coefficients have been used for all major rice ecosystems. In case of nitrous oxide| both direct and indirect emissions from agricultural soils in different states have been calculated using the emission coefficients derived from the experiments conducted in India. For the base year 1994-95| methane and nitrous oxide emissions from Indian agricultural fields were estimated to be 2.9 Tg (61 Tg CO2 equivalent) and 0.08 Tg (39 Tg CO2 equivalent) respectively. 2017,2004,4,4,Inventory of the Maldives' coral reefs using morphometrics generated from Landsat ETM+ imagery,In this study| we present exact measures of the number| area| and basic morphometric statistics for every single reef of the Maldivian archipelago| as derived from the interpretation of remotely sensed data collected by the Landsat-7 ETM+ earth-observing satellite sensor. We classified and mapped seven morphological attributes of reefs (six marine habitats and reef-top islands) to 30-m depth at 30x30 m spatial resolution (pixel size) for the entire archipelago. The total archipelagic area (all coral reef and lagoon habitats) of the 16 atolls| five oceanic faros| and four oceanic platform reefs which comprise the Maldives is 21|372.72+/-1|068.64 km(2) (approx. 20% of the Maldives' Territorial Sea). A total of 2|041+/-10 distinct coral reef structures larger than 0.01 km(2) occur in the Maldives| covering an area of 4|493.85 km(2) (including enclosed reef lagoons and islands) to 30-m depth. Smaller areas of coral reef substratum cover another 19.29 km(2)| bringing the total area of Maldivian coral reefs to 4|513.14+/-225.65 km(2). Shallow coral platforms thus occupy 21.1% of the total area of the archipelago (0.0052% of the EEZ area of the Maldives). Of these reefs| 538 are rim and oceanic reefs| covering 3|701.93 km(2) (82.5% of the total reef area)| and 1|503 are patch reefs within the atoll lagoons| covering 791.92 km(2) (17.5% of the total reef area). Islands occupy only 5.1% of the total reef area. Mapping the Maldives' coral reefs at high spatial resolution is only possible with remote sensing and spatial analysis technologies. These greatly reduce the large uncertainty around current estimates of reef area. Our accurate measure of total reef area is only 50.6% of the current best estimate| a result having significant implications for predictions of the Maldives' reef productivity and response to global climate change. Here we present current best practice and compare the methods and measures with previous approaches. 6692,2004,3,3,Investigation of accelerated carbonation for the stabilisation of MSW incinerator ashes and the sequestration of CO(2),Accelerated carbonation has been used for the treatment of contaminated soils and hazardous wastes| giving reaction products that can cause rapid hardening and the production of granulated or monolithic materials. This technology provides a route to sustainable waste management and it generates a viable remedy to the problems of a decreasing number of landfill sites in the UK| global warming ( due to greenhouse gas emissions) and the depletion of natural aggregate resources| such as sand and gravel. The application of accelerated carbonation ( termed Accelerated Carbonation Technology or ACT) to sequester CO(2) in fresh ashes from municipal solid waste (MSW) incinerator/combined heat and power plants is presented. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the influence of fundamental parameters affecting the diffusivity and reactivity of CO(2) ( i.e. particle size| the reaction time and the water content) on the extent and quality of carbonation. In addition| the major physical and chemical changes in air pollution control (APC) residues and bottom ashes (BA) after carbonation are evaluated| as are the optimum reaction conditions| and the physical and chemical changes induced by accelerated carbonation are presented and discussed. 2054,2004,2,4,Investigation of plasma irregularity sources associated with charged dust in the earth's mesosphere,Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) and polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSEs) are two phenomena at the forefront of near earth space science. NLCs are high altitude clouds in the earth's mesosphere that are formed from aerosol particles. The increase in the occurence of NLCs over time is believed to have profound implications on global climate change. PMSEs are believed to be related to NLCs and are strong radar echoes from mesospheric turbulence in the 50 MHz to 1.3 GHz range. Currently| there is no universally accepted explanation for the irregularities thought to produce PMSEs. Recent simultaneous sounding rocket| radar| and lidar observations of NLCs and PMSEs have provided a more detailed description of the electrodynamics and plasma configuration inside NLCs and the relationship to PMSEs. Particularly important is the simultaneous observation of charged aerosols| electron depletions| and small-scale electric field irregularities in the PMSE generation region. This work considers the consequences of the recent experimental observations on ultimately understanding the generation mechanism for PMSEs and the relationship to NLCs. A model for the electrodynamics and plasma configuration in the charged aerosol boundary layer will be described that indicates that plasma flows are expected to exist in the equilibrium. The possible role of these plasma flows in producing electron turbulence and irregularities in the charged aerosol boundary layer that may ultimately result in PMSEs is discussed. (C) 2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1937,2004,2,4,Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the High Arctic?,Gobal climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80degrees N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation| herbivores| and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However| when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept| halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period| muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically| and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena. 6704,2004,2,4,Is coral bleaching due to the instability of the zooxanthellae dark reactions?,Coral reefs are dominated by symbioses between marine invertebrates (e.g. corals| clams| sea anemones| sponges) and the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Increases in seawater temperature linked to global warming have lead to the phenomenon known as "bleaching"| involving the disassociation of these symbioses and mass mortalities of the invertebrate host. Mass bleaching events have been linked to a thermal lesion in the photosynthesis of Symbiodinium| either at photosystem II or in the dark reactions of photosynthesis. Examination of two of the proposed lesion points| the carbon concentrating mechanism (CCM) and form II Rubisco| indicate that| over the temperature range examined| the CCM is not disrupted in Symbiodinium isolated from giant clams| however it was not possible to determine if Rubisco is the point of thermal lesion resulting in bleaching. Maximum photosynthetic rates were measured between 28 and 31degreesC and declined as temperature was increased. Despite a low correlation between Rubisco activity| oxygen evolution and temperature| Rubisco activity declined with increasing temperature. 6627,2004,4,3,Is there observational support for an El Nino-like pattern of future global warming?,Three streams of evidence| namely simulations with coupled models| feedback analysis in the tropical Pacific| and observation-based paleoclimate reconstructions| all support the expectation of a future mean El Nino-like temperature response to the positive radiative forcing resulting from a continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. 2032,2004,2,4,Isotopic estimates of new carbon inputs into litter and soils in a four-year climate change experiment with Douglas-fir,Because soil is a major reservoir of terrestrial carbon and a potential sink for atmospheric CO2| determining plant inputs to soil carbon is critical for understanding ecosystem carbon dynamics. We present a modified method to quantify the effects of global climate change on plant inputs of carbon to soil based on C-13:12C ratio (delta(13)C) analyses that accounts for isotopic fractionation between inputs and newly created soil carbon. In a four-year study| the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature were determined for reconstructed Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga mensiezii (Mirb.) Franco) ecosystems in which native soil of low nitrogen content was used. The d13C patterns in litter and mineral soil horizons were measured and compared to d13C patterns in live needles| fine roots| and coarse roots. From regression analyses| we calculated the isotopic enrichment in 13C of newly incorporated soil carbon relative to needle and root carbon at 4% and 2%| respectively. These enrichments must be considered when using shifts in soil d13C to calculate inputs of plant carbon into the soil| and are probably a major factor in the progressive enrichment in 13C with increasing depth in soil profiles. Relative to the total carbon in each layer| the proportion of new carbon from recent photosynthate in each soil layer was 13-15% in the A horizon| 7-9% in litter layers| and 4% in the B2 and C horizons. New carbon in the A horizon was estimated at 370 g C m(-2). Carbon concentrations and new carbon in A horizons were correlated (r(2) = 0.78| n = 12)| but with a slope of 0.356| indicating that about 36% of net carbon accumulation in the A horizon was from inputs via roots| root exudates or mycorrhizal fungi and 64% of carbon was derived from surface litter decomposition. Under the nitrogen-limited growth conditions used in this study| neither elevated CO2 nor temperature affected soil carbon sequestration patterns. 6600,2004,5,4,Large ground warming in the Canadian Arctic inferred from inversions of temperature logs,The simultaneous functional space inversion applied for the first time to the set of precise temperature logs from 61 wells located between 60degrees and. 82degreesN in northern Canada shows evidence|of large ground surface temperature (GST) warming. These results include highest latitude locations of the well temperature profiles known in the Northern Hemisphere. There is strong evidence that GST warming started in the late-18th century and lasted until the 20th century. Simultaneous inversion of all well temperature data suggests that the cumulative ground surface temperature change over the past five centuries amounts to about 2degreesC significantly exceeding recent estimates from conventional climate proxies. This large GST warming is also present in other circumpolar locations in the Northern Hemisphere. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6736,2004,4,4,Large-scale environmental controls on microbial biofilms in high-alpine streams,Glaciers are highly responsive to global warming and important agents of landscape heterogeneity. While it is well established that glacial ablation and snowmelt regulate stream discharge| linkage among streams and streamwater geochemistry| the controls of these factors on stream microbial biofilms remain insufficiently understood. We investigated glacial (metakryal| hypokryal)| groundwater-fed (krenal) and snow-fed (rhithral) streams-all of them representative for alpine stream networks-and present evidence that these hydrologic and hydrogeochemical factors differentially affect sediment microbial biofilms. Average microbial biomass and bacterial carbon production were low in the glacial streams| whereas bacterial cell size| biomass| and carbon production were higher in the tributaries| most notably in the krenal stream. Whole-cell in situ fluorescence hybridization revealed reduced detection rates of the Eubacteria and higher abundance of alpha-Proteobacteria in the glacial stream| a pattern that most probably reflects the trophic status of this ecosystem. Our data suggest low flow during the onset of snowmelt and autumn as a short period (hot moment) of favorable environmental conditions with pulsed inputs of allochthonous nitrate and dissolved organic carbon| and with disproportionately high microbial growth. Tributaries are relatively more constant and favorable environments than kryal streams| and serve as possible sources of microbes and organic matter to the main glacial channel during periods (e.g.| snowmelt) of elevated hydrologic linkage among streams. Ice and snow dynamics-and their impact on the amount and composition of dissolved organic matter-have a crucial impact on stream biofilms| and we thus need to consider microbes and critical hydrological episodes in future models of alpine stream communities.
6698,2004,5,4,Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review,This paper is concerned with dendroclimatic research aimed at representing the history of very large-scale temperature changes. It describes recent analyses of the data from a widespread network of tree-ring chronologies| made up of ring width and densitometric measurement data spanning three to six centuries. The network was built over many years from trees selected to maximise their sensitivity to changing temperature. This strategy was adopted so that temperature reconstructions might be achieved at both regional and very large spatial scales. The focus here is on the use of one growth parameter: maximum latewood density (MXD). The detailed nature of the temperature sensitivity of MXD across the whole network has been explored and the dominant common influence of mean April-September temperature on MXD variability is demonstrated. Different approaches to reconstructing past temperature for this season include the production of detailed year-by-year gridded maps and wider regional integrations in the form of subcontinental and quasi-hemispheric-scale histories of temperature variability spanning some six centuries. These 'hemispheric' summer series can be compared with other reconstructions of temperature changes for the Northern Hemisphere over the last millennium. The tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions show the clear cooling effect of large explosive volcanic eruptions. They also exhibit greater century-timescale variability than is apparent in the other hemispheric series and suggest that the late 15th and the 16th centuries were cooler than indicated by some other data. However| in many tree-ring chronologies| we do not observe the expected rate of ring density increases that would be compatible with observed late 20th century warming. This changing climate sensitivity may be the result of other environmental factors that have| since the 1950s| increasingly acted to reduce tree-ring density below the level expected on the basis of summer temperature changes. This prevents us from claiming unprecedented hemispheric warming during recent decades on the basis of these tree-ring density data alone. Here we show very preliminary results of an investigation of the links between recent changes in MXD and ozone (the latter assumed to be associated with the incidence of UV radiation at the ground). (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6738,2004,5,4,Late Devonian facies variety in Iran: volcanism as a possible trigger of the environmental perturbation near the Frasnian-Famennian boundary,Upper Devonian successions surrounding the Frasnian-Famennian (F-F) boundary in Iran consist of mixed carbonate/silisiclastic deposits. The successions are characterized by conspicuous ferruginous limestones| clay-rich units| black shales| and mafic volcanic rocks that provide important insights into palaeoenvironmental conditions during this interval of Earth's history. An increase of kaolinite/illite ratio in clays associated with the F-F boundary suggests that increased chemical weathering was facilitated by warm and humid climatic conditions. Distinctive ferruginous-oolite deposits overlying the crucial Frasnian-Famennian boundary interval indicate a high supply rate of Fe-bearing clay originated during enhanced weathering under such climatic conditions. Black shales associated with the F-F boundary are interpreted to be the result of a high primary productivity caused by an increased influx of land-derived nutrients and regional volcanic activity. Widespread rift-related| basaltic activity along eastern Laurussia and northern Gondwana during the mid-Late Devonian is believed to have contribution to this global warming surrounding the F-F boundary. 6433,2004,5,4,Late Oligocene Warming Event in the southern North Sea Basin: benthic foraminifera as paleotemperature proxies,The investigation of foraminiferal assemblages from a series of Oligocene borehole sections allowed paleoenvironment and paleoclimate reconstructions for the Rupelian and Chattian (Lower and Upper Oligocene) Stages in their type region| the southern North Sea Basin. A striking feature coinciding with the Rupelian-Chattian (R-C) unconformity is the major change in paleotemperature and paleobathymetry. The shallow marine to restricted marine subtropical fauna at the base of the Chattian is in strong contrast with the deeper marine and cooler upper Rupelian assemblages. This study suggests that the early Chattian transgression is genetically related to a widespread major warming pulse| known as the Late Oligocene Warming Event. 6369,2004,5,3,Late Quaternary changes in Amazonian ecosystems and their implications for global carbon cycling,The current role of Amazonia in the terrestrial carbon budget is the focus of intensive scientific interest| in large part due to its potential to accelerate global warming. However| its role in mediating CO| changes over millennial time-scales since the last C Glacial maximum (LGM) has Generally been overlooked and is the subject of speculation. Recent advances in our understanding of the Late Quaternary history of Amazonian ecosystems offers an opportunity to make more informed inferences about Late Quaternary changes in the magnitude of Amazon carbon storage than has hitherto been possible. Therefore| in this paper| we reconstruct changes in the magnitude of Amazon carbon storage over the last 21|000 years (since the LGM) by reference to recently published palaeohydrological and palaeoecological data and compare these data with results from simulations using a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model for the Mid-Holocene and the LGM. Building on these results further| we interpret changes in tropical forest biomass in the context of Late Quaternary polar ice-core records of atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide concentrations. Palaeo-data and model simulations show that Amazonia was predominantly forested at the LGM| although there is evidence for savanna expansion near the margins of the Basin and southern Amazonia may have been covered by deciduous/serni-deciduous dry forests rather than evergreen rain forests. We estimate Amazon C storage at the LGM to be only 135 Gt C (50% smaller than today)| but find that its proportion of the entire terrestrial carbon store was almost twice that of today. The model shows that between the LGM and the Mid-Holocene there is a significant increase in evergreen broad-leaf forests at the expense of deciduous forests and a 67% increase in total Amazon C storage| attributable to rising temperatures and atmospheric CO| levels. Although our results indicate that the Amazon Basin was dominated by rain forests throughout the Holocene| rain forest cover expanded in the Late Holocene (at the expense of savannas) and total Amazon carbon storage is simulated to have risen by 22% between the Mid-Holocene (225 Gt C) and the present day (Pre-Industrial) (225 Gt C). Comparison of these Amazon carbon fluxes with palaeo-data from other parts of the world suggests that| contrary to previous hypotheses.| the terrestrial biosphere acted as a net carbon sink throughout the Holocene| and that the observed CO| rise from 260 to 285 ppmv between 8 and 1 ka BP (revealed by the Antarctic Taylor Dome ice-core record) may have been driven by release of carbon from the oceans rather than land. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6379,2004,4,4,LCA-LCCA of oil fired steam turbine power plant in Singapore,A life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted to quantify the non-renewable energy use and global warming potential in electricity generation from a typical oil fired steam turbine plant in Singapore. As the conventional LCA does not include any cost analysis| which is a major criterion in decision making| the cost of power generation is estimated using a life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) tool. It is estimated that the hidden processes consumed about 9% additional energy on top of the fuel embedded energy| while the hidden GHG emission is about 12%. A correlation is established to estimate the life cycle energy use and GHG emissions directly from the power plant net efficiency. The study methodology| results and the empirical relations are presented| together with a brief overview of the Singapore power sector. It also highlights the need for consideration of the reserves availability in the pricing mechanism and how such cost indices could be developed based on the LCA-LCCA. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6521,2004,2,4,Leaf area index and net primary productivity along subtropical to alpine gradients in the Tibetan Plateau,Aim Our aims were to quantify climatic and soil controls on net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) along subtropical to alpine gradients where the vegetation remains relatively undisturbed| and investigate whether NPP and LAI converge towards threshold-like logistic patterns associated with climatic and soil variables that would help us to verify and parameterize process models for predicting future ecosystem behaviour under global environmental change. Location Field data were collected from 22 sites along the Tibetan Alpine Vegetation Transects (TAVT) during 1999-2000. The TAVT included the altitudinal transect on the eastern slope of the Gongga Mountains in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau| with altitudes from 1900 m to 3700 m| and the longitudinal-latitudinal transect in the Central Tibetan Plateau| of approximately 1000 km length and 40 km width. Methods LAI was measured as the product of foliage biomass multiplied by the ratio of specific leaf area. NPP in forests and shrub communities was estimated as the sum of increases in standing crops of live vegetation using recent stem growth rate and leaf lifespan. NPP in grasslands was estimated from the above-ground maximum live biomass. We measured the soil organic carbon (C) and total and available nitrogen (N) contents and their pool sizes by conventional methods. Mean temperatures for the year| January and July and annual precipitation were estimated from available meteorological stations by interpolation or simulation. The threshold-like logistic function was used to model the relationships of LAI and NPP with climatic and soil variables. Results Geographically| NPP and LAI both significantly decreased with increasing latitude (P < 0.02)| but increased with increasing longitude (P < 0.01). Altitudinal trends in NPP and LAI showed different patterns. NPP generally decreased with increasing altitude in a linear relationship (r(2) = 0.73| P < 0.001)| whereas LAI showed a negative quadratic relationship with altitude (r(2) = 0.58| P < 0.001). Temperature and precipitation| singly or in combination| explained 60-68% of the NPP variation with logistic relationships| while the soil organic C and total N variables explained only 21-46% of the variation with simple linear regressions of log-transformed data. LAI showed significant logistic relationships with both climatic and soil variables| but the data from alpine spruce-fir sites diverged greatly from the modelled patterns associated with temperature and precipitation. Soil organic C storage had the strongest correlation with LAI (r(2) = 0.68| P < 0.001). Main conclusions In response to climatic gradients along the TAVT| LAI and NPP across diverse vegetation types converged towards threshold-like logistic patterns consistent with the general distribution patterns of live biomass both above-ground and below-ground found in our earlier studies. Our analysis further revealed that climatic factors strongly limited the NPP variations along the TAVT because the precipitation gradient characterized not only the vegetation distribution but also the soil N conditions of the natural ecosystems. LAI generally increased with increasing precipitation and was well correlated with soil organic C and total N variables. The interaction between LAI growth and soil N availability would appear to have important implications for ecosystem structure and function of alpine spruce-fir forests. Convergence towards logistic patterns in dry matter production of plants in the TAVT suggests that alpine plant growth would increase in a nonlinear response to global warming. 2015,2004,2,4,Leaf photosynthesis and carbohydrate dynamics of soybeans grown throughout their life-cycle under Free-Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment,A lower than theoretically expected increase in leaf photosynthesis with long-term elevation of carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) is often attributed to limitations in the capacity of the plant to utilize the additional photosynthate| possibly resulting from restrictions in rooting volume| nitrogen supply or genetic constraints. Field-grown| nitrogen-fixing soybean with indeterminate flowering might therefore be expected to escape these limitations. Soybean was grown from emergence to grain maturity in ambient air (372 mumol mol(-1)[CO2]) and in air enriched with CO2 (552 mumol mol(-1)[CO2]) using Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) technology. The diurnal courses of leaf CO2 uptake (A) and stomatal conductance (g(s)) for upper canopy leaves were followed throughout development from the appearance of the first true leaf to the completion of seed filling. Across the growing season the daily integrals of leaf photosynthetic CO2 uptake (A') increased by 24.6% in elevated [CO2] and the average mid-day g(s) decreased by 21.9%. The increase in A' was about half the 44.5% theoretical maximum increase calculated from Rubisco kinetics. There was no evidence that the stimulation of A was affected by time of day| as expected if elevated [CO2] led to a large accumulation of leaf carbohydrates towards the end of the photoperiod. In general| the proportion of assimilated carbon that accumulated in the leaf as non-structural carbohydrate over the photoperiod was small (< 10%) and independent of [CO2] treatment. By contrast to A'| daily integrals of PSII electron transport measured by modulated chlorophyll fluorescence were not significantly increased by elevated [CO2]. This indicates that A at elevated [CO2] in these field conditions was predominantly ribulose-1|5-bisphosphate (RubP) limited rather than Rubisco limited. There was no evidence of any loss of stimulation toward the end of the growing season; the largest stimulation of A' occurred during late seed filling. The stimulation of photosynthesis was| however| transiently lost for a brief period just before seed fill. At this point| daytime accumulation of foliar carbohydrates was maximal| and the hexose:sucrose ratio in plants grown at elevated [CO2] was significantly larger than that in plants grown at current [CO2]. The results show that even for a crop lacking the constraints that have been considered to limit the responses of C-3 plants to rising [CO2] in the long term| the actual increase in A over the growing season is considerably less than the increase predicted from theory. 6595,2004,3,3,Legume versus fertilizer sources of nitrogen: ecological tradeoffs and human needs,During the 20th century| farmers around the world replaced legume rotations and other traditional sources of nitrogen (N) fertility with synthetic N fertilizers. A sizable percentage of the human population now depends on synthetic N fertilizers for survival. In recent decades| N fertilizers have been linked to numerous environmental hazards including marine eutrophication| global warming| groundwater contamination| and stratospheric ozone destruction. Some researchers suggest that legumes| which can support biological NZ fixation| offer a more environmentally sound and sustainable source of N to cropping systems. This perspective is countered by researchers who argue that| (1) legume-derived N has equally negative environmental impacts as the N derived from synthetic fertilizers| and (2) the human population now exceeds the carrying capacity of agricultural systems that depend on legumes for N inputs. In this review| we compare the sustainability of obtaining N from legume versus industrial sources in terms of ecological integrity| energetics and food security. We conclude that obtaining N from legumes is potentially more sustainable than from industrial sources. We further suggest that while some countries are fundamentally dependent on synthetic N for food production| many countries have the capacity to greatly reduce or eliminate dependence on synthetic N through adoption of less meat-intensive diets| and reduction of food waste. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6683,2004,3,4,Life cycle assessment of lightweight and end-of-life scenarios for generic compact class passenger vehicles,Goal| Scope and Background. The automotive industry has a long history in improving the environmental performance of vehicles - fuel economy and emission improvements| introduction of recycled and renewable materials| etc. The European Union also aims at improving the environmental performance of products by reducing| in particular| waste resulting from End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVs) for example. The European Commission estimates that ELVs contribute to approximately 1% of the total waste in Europe [9]. Other European Union strategies are considering more life cycle aspects| as well as other impacts including resource or climate change. This article is summarizing the results of a European Commission funded project (LIRECAR) that aims at identifying the environmental impacts and relevance for combinations of recycling / recovery and lightweight vehicle design options over the whole life cycle of a vehicle - i.e. manufacturing| use and recycling/recovery. Three| independent and scientific LCA experts reviewed the study according to ISO 14040. From the beginning| representatives of all Life Cycle Stakeholders have been involved (European materials & supplier associations| an environmental Non-Governmental Organization| recycler's association). Model and System Definition. The study compared 3 sets of theoretical vehicle weight scenarios: 1000 kg reference (material range of today's end-of-life| mid-sized vehicles produced in the early 1990's) and 2 lightweight scenarios for 100 kg and 250 kg less weight based on reference functions (in terms of comfort| safety| etc.) and a vehicle concept. The scenarios are represented by their material range of a broad range of lightweight strategies of most European car manufacturers. In parallel| three End-of-Life (EOL) scenarios are considered: EOL today and two theoretical extreme scenarios (100% recycling| respectively| 100% recovery of shredder residue fractions that are disposed of today). The technical and economical feasibility of the studied scenarios is not taken into consideration (e.g. 100% recycling is not possible). Results and Discussion. Significant differences between the various| studied weight scenarios were determined in several scenarios for the environmental categories of global warming| ozone depletion| photochemical oxidant creation (summer smog)| abiotic resource depletion| and hazardous waste. However| these improvement potentials can be only realized under well defined conditions (e.g. material compositions| specific fuel reduction values and EOL credits) based on case-by-case assessments for improvements over the course of the life cycle. Looking at the studied scenarios| the relative contribution of the EOL phase represents 5% or less of the total life cycle impact for most selected impact categories and scenarios. The EOL technology variations studied do not impact significantly the considered environmental impacts. Exceptions include total waste| as long as stockpile goods (overburden| tailings and ore/coal processing residues) and EOL credits are considered. Conclusions and Recommendations. LIRECAR focuses only on lightweight/recycling| questions whereas other measures (changes in safety or comfort standards| propulsion improvements for COD user behavior) are beyond the scope of the study. The conclusions are also not necessarily transferable to other vehicle concepts. However| for the question of end-of-life options| it can be concluded that LIRECAR cannot support any general recommendation and/or mandatory actions to improve recycling if lightweight is affected. Also| looking at each vehicle| no justification could be found for the general assumption that lightweight and recycling greatly influence the affected environmental dimension (Global Warming Potential or resource depletion and waste| respectively). LIRECAR showed that this general assumption is not true under all analyzed circumstances and not as significant as suggested. Further discussions and product development targets shall not focus on generic targets that define the approach/technology concerned with how to achieve environmental improvement (weight reduction [kg]| recycling quota [%])| but on overall life cycle improvement). To enable this case-by-case assessment| exchanges of necessary information with suppliers are especially relevant. 6554,2004,3,4,Life cycle energy and environmental benefits of generating electricity from willow biomass,Biomass is a key renewable energy source expected to play an important role in US electricity production under stricter emission regulations and renewable portfolio standards. Willow energy crops are being developed in the northeast US as a fuel source for increasing biomass energy and bioproduct demands. A life cycle inventory is presented that characterizes the full cradle-to-grave energy and environmental performance of willow biomass-to-electricity. A willow biomass production model is developed using demonstration-scale field experience from New York. Scenarios are presented that mimic anticipated cofiring operations| including supplemental use of wood residues| at an existing coat-fired generating facility. At a cofiring rate of 10% biomass| the system net energy ratio (electricity delivered divided by total fossil fuel consumed) increases by 8.9% and net global warming potential decreases by 7-10%. Net SO2 emissions are reduced by 9.5% and a significant reduction in NO| emissions is expected. In addition| we estimate system performance of using willow biomass in dedicated biomass gasification and direct-fired generating facilities and demonstrate that the pollution avoided (relative to the current electricity-grid) is comparable to other renewables such as PV and wind. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6380,2004,3,3,Life cycle impact assessment of lead-free solder considering the trade-off relationship between toxic impact and other impact categories,Lead-free solder is a focus of increasing international attention| particularly in the wake of various EU directives (ROHS: on the restriction of the use of certain hazardous substances in electrical and electronic equipment). Lead-free solder is anticipated to reduce toxic environmental impact| but it has been pointed out that energy consumption and other related impacts like global warming caused by the production of lead-free solder may be higher than those for conventional solder. It is necessary to consider this trade-off relationship between types of environmental impact. The aim of this study is to conduct trial calculations of impact assessments of typical lead-free solders and a conventional Sn-Pb solder. Impact categories at the local level are regarded as important in the assessment of current materials| such as impacts caused by exposure to hazardous substances. For these impact categories| the resultant environmental impacts can differ greatly| depending on where emissions occur was even for the same degree of environmental burden. Therefore| LIME (Life cycle Impact assessment Method based on Endpoint modeling) I preferentially used| based on domestic background data. Using a conceptualized damage assessment and damage indicator of human health| we concluded that the avoidance of lead is effective even when the increase in other health impacts are taken into account. The reliability of this result was confirmed by the implementation of an uncertainty analysis. 6462,2004,3,3,Limestone-particle-stabilized macroemulsion of liquid and supercritical carbon dioxide in water for ocean sequestration,When liquid or supercritical CO2 is mixed with an aqueous slurry of finely pulverized (1-20 mum) limestone (CaCO3) in a high-pressure reactor| a macroemulsion is formed consisting of droplets Of CO2 coated with a sheath of CaCO3 particles dispersed in water. The coated droplets are called globules. Depending on the globule diameter and the CaCO3 sheath thickness| the globules sink to the bottom of the water column| are neutrally buoyant| or float on top of the water. The CaCO3 particles are lodged at the CO H2O interface| preventing the coalescence of the CO2 droplets| and thus stabilizing the CO2-in-water emulsion. We describe the expected behavior of a CO2/H2O/CaCO3 emulsion plume released in the deep ocean for sequestration Of CO2 in the ocean to ameliorate global warming. Depending on the amount of CO2 injected| the dense plume will descend a few hundred meters while entraining ambient seawater until it acquires neutral buoyancy in the stratified ocean. After equilibration| the globules will rain out from the plume toward the ocean bottom. This mode Of CO2 release will prevent acidification of the seawater around the release point| which is a major environmental drawback of ocean sequestration of liquid| unemulsified CO2. 6703,2004,2,4,Linear trends of the length of snow-cover season in the Northern Hemisphere as observed by the satellites in the period 1972-2000,The dataset of Northern Hemisphere EASE-Grid weekly snow cover and sea-ice extent (U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center) for the period September 1972-August 2000 is analyzed to examine the possible influence of recent global warming on the seasonal change of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. It is found that the 2 total snow-cover area in the 1980s and 1990s is diminished by 3 x 106 kin| and the length of snow-cover season is reduced by 2-3 weeks| as compared with the 1970s. In general| the contribution from earlier snowmelt is greater than that from delayed snow accumulation. In addition| the maximum snow-cover area during January-February has gradually decreased by about 3 X 10(6) km(2) within the two decades. Geographically| the rate of decrease of snow-cover duration is < 0.1 week per year (wpy) in the high-latitude regions such as the Siberian Plains and Northwest Territories of Canada and > 0.2 wpy in the high-elevation regions such as the Scandinavian Peninsula| Tibetan Plateau and Rocky Mountains. The earlier snowmelt in the high-elevation regions suggests that the snowfall amounts there are decreasing owing to global warming. 6655,2004,4,4,Linking land-atmosphere-stream carbon fluxes in a lowland peatland system,Any change in the ability of northern peatlands to act as a sink for atmospheric CO2 will play a crucial part in the response of the Earth system to global warming. We argue that a true assessment of the sink-source relationships of peatland ecosystems requires that losses of C in drainage waters be included when determining annual net C uptake| thus connecting measurements of stream C fluxes with those made at the land surface-atmosphere interface. This was done by combining estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with stream water measurements of TOC| DIC| and gaseous C loss| in a 335-ha lowland temperate peatland catchment (55degrees48.80'N| 03degrees14.40'W) in central Scotland over a 2-year period (1996-1998). Mean annual downstream C flux was 304 (+/-62) kg C ha(-1) yr(-1)| of which total organic carbon (TOC) contributed 93%| the remainder being dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and free CO2. At the catchment outlet evasion loss of CO2 from the stream surface was estimated to be an additional 46 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1). Over the study period| NEE of CO2-C resulted in a flux from the atmosphere to the land surface of 278 (+/-25) kg C ha(-1) yr(-1). Net C loss in drainage water| including both the downstream flux and CO2 evasion from the stream surface to the atmosphere| was therefore greater or equal to the net annual C uptake as a result of photosynthesis/respiration at the land surface. By combining these and other flux terms| the overall C mass balance suggests that this system was either acting as a terrestrial C source or was C neutral. 6377,2004,2,4,Long-distance migration timing of Tringa sandpipers adjusted to recent climate change,Capsule: Evidence for earlier spring migration of Tringa sandpipers after warmer winters| but no clear pattern concerning autumn migration timing. Aim: To analyse the timing of migration of three Tringa sandpipers between 1966 and 2002 with respect to recent global warming on a local and a hemispheric scale. Methods: I analysed long-term migration timing variation in Greenshank Tringa nebularia| Spotted Redshank T. erythropus and Wood Sandpiper T. glareola at four Central European staging sites. Variation in passage onset| median and end per migration period was analysed using stepwise regression with respect to variation in (i) local abundance| residence time and age-dependent abundance as an estimate of breeding success and (ii) climate at the staging sites| snowmelt at the presumed central breeding area and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results: All three species consistently showed an overall spring migration advance and autumn migration delay. Autumn passage timing varied with both climatic conditions at the breeding area and breeding success| while in 43% of all cases spring passage correlated with local and hemispheric climate variation. Conclusion: The distinction between population dynamic and climatic effects on timing of autumn migration requires separate data for local adult and juvenile passage or a larger sample of sites. In spring| the data strongly suggest a flexible response of migration timing to local weather conditions and the hemispheric variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation. This indicates that even long-distance migrants are able to adjust their overall migration pattern to fluctuating environmental conditions on a phenotypic basis. 1925,2004,2,4,Long-term changes in migration timing of adult Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) at the southern edge of the species distribution,The Connecticut River historically represented the southernmost extent of the North American range of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)| but the native population was extirpated 200 years ago by dam construction. An extensive restoration effort has relied upon stock transfers from more northerly rivers| especially the Penobscot River (Maine). Recent work has shown differences in age structure between donor and derivative populations. Here we focus on a related life-history trait| the timing of the adult migration. We examined 23 years of migration timing data collected at two capture locations in the Connecticut River drainage. We found that both dates of first capture and median capture dates have shifted significantly earlier by about 0.5 days(.)year(-1). To conclude whether this is a consequence of local adaptation or a coast-wide effect| we also quantified changes in migration timing of more northerly stocks (in Maine and Canada). We found that the changes in migration timing were not unique to the Connecticut River stock and instead observed coherent patterns in the shift towards earlier peak migration dates across systems. These consistent shifts are correlated with long-term changes in temperature and flow and may represent a response to global climate change. 6481,2004,2,4,Long-term changes in the chromosomal inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura. II. European populations,The chromosomal polymorphism of 13 European populations of Drosophila subobscura has been compared with that of the same populations collected 15-35 years ago. The chromosomal polymorphism of the old populations differs significantly from that of the new populations| mainly for chromosomes U and O. There is a very good agreement between the geographical space and the genetic space as shown by a graphical representation of the 26 statistical populations (13 old and 13 new) obtained by a principal coordinate analysis. This reflects both the existence of significant latitudinal clines for the frequencies of some chromosomal arrangements in the old and new samples and systematic changes that have taken place in these populations during the period that elapsed between the two surveys. An increase in the frequency of those arrangements typical of southern latitudes and a decrease for those common in northern latitudes is observed in all populations - Mediterranean| Atlantic and Central European. Furthermore| the genetic distances of the new populations to a southern population of reference have decreased in comparison with those of the old populations. These changes could be the result of climatic factors that are correlated with latitude. In particular| the assumption that global warming is responsible for all the changes observed appears rather likely. Whether these systematic changes of the chromosomal polymorphism are a consequence of local adaptations or have been produced by migration from the south remains an open question. 2062,2004,2,4,Long-term changes within the invertebrate and fish communities of the Upper Rhone River: effects of climatic factors,There is increasing evidence that the global climate change is already having measurable biological impacts. However| no study (based on actual data) has assessed the influence of the global warming on communities in rivers. We analyzed long-term series of fish (1979-1999) and invertebrate (1980-1999) data from the Upper Rhone River at Bugey to test the influence of climatic warming on both communities. Between the periods of 1979-1981 and 1997-1999| the average water temperature of the Upper Rhone River at Bugey has increased by about 1.5degreesC due to atmospheric warming. In the same period| several dams have been built from 12.5 to 85 km upstream of our study segment and a nuclear power plant has been built on it. Changes in the community structure were summarized using multivariate analysis. The variability of fish abundance was correlated with discharge and temperature during the reproduction period (April-June): low flows and high temperatures coincided with high fish abundance. Beyond abundance patterns| southern| thermophilic fish species (e.g. chub| and barbel) as well as downstream| thermophilic invertebrate taxa (e.g. Athricops| Potamopyrgus) progressively replaced northern| cold-water fish species (e.g. dace) and upstream| cold-water invertebrate taxa (e.g. Chloroperla| Protoneumura). These patterns were significantly correlated with thermal variables| suggesting that shifts were the consequences of climatic warming. All analyses were carried out using statistics appropriate for autocorrelated time series. Our results were consistent with previous studies dealing with relationships between fish or invertebrates and water temperature| and with predictions of the impact of climatic change on freshwater communities. The potential confounding factors (i.e. dams and the nuclear power plant) did not seem to influence the observed trends. 6516,2004,2,4,Long-term effects of fire frequency on carbon storage and productivity of boreal forests: a modeling study,Climate change is predicted to shorten the fire interval in boreal forests. Many studies have recorded positive effects of fire on forest growth over a few decades| but few have modeled the long-term effects of the loss of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. We used a process-based| dynamic| forest ecosystem model| which couples the carbon| nitrogen and water cycles| to simulate the effects of fire frequency on coniferous forests in the climate of Prince Albert| Saskatchewan. The model was calibrated to simulate observed forest properties. The model predicted rapid short-term recovery of net primary productivity (NPP) after fire| but in the long term| supported the hypotheses that (1) current NPP and carbon content of boreal forests are lower than they would be without periodic fire| and (2) any increase in fire frequency in the future will tend to lower NPP and carbon storage. Lower long-term NPP and carbon storage were attributable to (1) loss of carbon on combustion| equal to about 20% of NPP over a 100-200 year fire cycle| (2) loss of nitrogen by volatilization in fire| equal to about 3-4 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) over a 100-200 year fire cycle| and (3) the fact that the normal fire cycle is much shorter than the time taken for the forest (especially the soil) to reach an equilibrium carbon and nitrogen content. It was estimated that a shift in fire frequency from 200 to 100 years over 1000 Mha of boreal forest would release an average of about 0.1 Gt C year(-1) over many centuries. 1992,2004,3,4,Long-term tillage and crop rotation effects on microbial biomass and C and N mineralization in a Brazilian Oxisol,Crop rotation and tillage impact microbial C dynamics| which are important for sequestering C to offset global climate change and to promote sustainable crop production. Little information is available for these processes in tropical/subtropical agroecosystems| which cover vast areas of terrestrial ecosystems. Consequently| a study of crop rotation in combination with no tillage (NT) and conventional tillage (CT) systems was conducted on an Oxisol (Typic Haplorthox) in an experiment established in 1976 at Londrina| Brazil. Soil samples were taken at 0-50| 50-100 and 100-200 mm depths in August 1997 and 1998 and evaluated for microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and mineralizable C and N. There were few differences due to crop rotation| however there were significant differences due to tillage. No tillage systems increased total C by 45%| microbial biomass by 83% and MBC:total C ratio by 23% at 0-50 mm depth over CT. C and N mineralization increased 74% with NT compared to CT systems for the 0-200 mm depth. Under NT| the metabolic quotient (CO(2) evolved per unit of MBC) decreased by 32% averaged across soil depths| which suggests CT produced a microbial pool that was more metabolically active than under NT systems. These soil microbial properties were shown to be sensitive indicators of long-term tillage management under tropical conditions. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6397,2004,3,4,Managed grasslands: A greenhouse gas sink or source?,We describe a unique| one year investigation of CO2 and N2O fluxes over a fertilized grassland in Ireland using two eddy covariance systems. As the global warming potential (GWP) of N2O is 296 ( 100 year time horizon)| relatively small N2O emissions have a potentially large impact on overall radiative forcing. Therefore nitrogen fertilizer application practices may possibly turn a site with a net CO2 uptake into a net radiative forcing source. We observed a net annual uptake of 9.45 T CO2 ha(-1). N2O emissions equivalent to 5.42 T ha(-1) CO2 GWP counteracted 57% of the effect of the CO2 uptake. Estimated methane emissions from ruminants (3.74 T ha(-1) CO2 GWP) further counteract the CO2 uptake| making the overall GWP nearly neutral. This delicate balance of the greenhouse gas fluxes underscores the significance of fertilizer application strategies in determining whether a managed grassland is a net GWP source or sink. 6574,2004,2,4,Management options for the Blackwater herring| a local spring-spawning stock in the Thames Estuary,Herring caught in the Thames Estuary sustain a small local commercial fishery (peak catch of 606 t during the 1972-1973 fishing season). Loss of local consumers' interest in the herring product has resulted in a gradual decline in catches and fishing effort for the stock. The stock is assessed using an age-structured model that relies on the information provided by a scientific trawl survey| and management advice is provided before the fishing season starts in October. Given its current low economic value| managers have requested evaluation of options for multi-annual Total Allowable Catches (TACs) in an attempt to reduce the frequency (and costs) of assessment and associated management advice. A tentative relationship between sea surface temperature and recruitment is used to predict the impact of increasing sea temperatures on future recruitment in the context of global warming. Hypotheses of auto-correlation and of an environmental effect on recruitment| together with trends in weight-at-age and the overestimation of spawning-stock biomass| form the basis for sensitivity tests of the management options considered. Implementation of a 3-year fixed TAC with 40% constraint in TAC variability and a slight reduction in target F would seem appropriate for the stock| given that it is within safe biological limits and compares well in terms of yield and risk with the current approach of annual TAC revision. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. All rights reserved. 6372,2004,2,4,Mapping the fundamental niche: Physiology| climate| and the distribution of a nocturnal lizard,The fundamental niche can be viewed as the set of conditions and resources that allow a given organism to survive and reproduce in the absence of biotic interactions. Quantitative descriptions of the environmental variables with which organisms are associated are becoming common with the advent of geographic information systems (GIS). Although such descriptive approaches to the niche are useful for interpolating species distributions| they implicitly incorporate biotic interactions and therefore do not represent the fundamental niche. A mechanistic understanding of the fundamental niche| when combined with GIS data| can provide us with greater insight into the causes of distribution and abundance| a solid foundation for exploring the role of biotic interactions| and greater confidence in extrapolating to novel circumstances such as climate change and species introductions. We apply such a mechanistic approach to Study the climatic component of the fundamental niche of a nocturnal lizard| Heteronotia binoei| across an entire continent. We combine physiological measurements of this species (thermal requirements for egg development| thermal preferences and tolerances| metabolic and evaporative water loss rates)| and high-resolution climatic data for the Australian continent (ail| temperature| cloud cover| wind speed| humidity| and radiation)| with biophysical models to calculate the climatic component of the fundamental niche of this lizard and map it onto the Australian landscape at high resolution. We also use this approach to predict the effects of a mild global warming on the degree-days in the soil for egg development and the potential for aboveground activity of the study organism. 6442,2004,4,4,Maximum likelihood estimation in generalized broken-line regression,The author examines the existence| uniqueness| and identifiability of estimators produced by maximum likelihood for a model where the canonical parameter of an exponential family gradually begins to drift from its initial value at an unknown change point. He illustrates these properties with theoretical examples and applies his results to global warming data and failure data for emergency diesel generators. 6550,2004,2,4,Maximum storm surge curve due to global warming for the European North Sea Region during the 20th-21st century,Computations of storm surges during the 20th century needs to incorporate global warming of about 0.6 degreesC +/- 0.2 degreesC (IPCC| 2001). In order to take this global warming into consideration| the development of all storm surges occurred during the 20th century have been analysed. The study comprises determining to what degree the storm surge curve and storm surge level depend on each other. This fact can be used to calculate a maximum storm surge curve and each single storm surge event can be summarised. The tendency of the surge and wind parameters do not show that this maximum storm surge levels in the 20th century will occur earlier than predicted| however| the global warming of 0.6 degreesC will extend the duration of the mean storm surge curve. 6690,2004,4,4,Mean residence time of kaolinite and smectite-bound organic matter in mozambiquan soils,To gain understanding about the process of global warming| it is essential to study the global C cycle. In the global C cycle| soil organic matter (SOM) is a major source and sink of atmospheric C. Turnover times of C in these soil organic compounds vary from hours to thousands of years. Clay minerals can stabilize SOM through the formation of organo-mineral bonds. The aim of this research was first| to determine the mean residence time (MRT) of organic matter that is bound to different clay mineral surfaces| and second| to explain the variance in the measured MRTs using multilinear regression. We especially studied organic matter that is bound to kaolinite or smectite. We analyzed the C-14 activity of organic matter in the whole and heavy clay-size fraction of kaolinite- and smectite-dominated soils from N'Ropa| in northern Mozambique. The soils originated from natural savanna systems and bamboo forest. We assumed that C inputs and outputs are in equilibrium in such soils| so that the C-14 age equals the MRT of the organic C. For both kaolinite- and smectite-dominated soils| the organic matter in the whole and heavy clay-size fraction and extracts had a fast turnover (400-500 yr on average). The MRT of kaolinite-bound organic matter did not differ significantly from that of smectite-bound organic matter. Multiple linear regression indicates that the effective cation-exchange capacity (ECEC) is the main factor to explain variance in the MRT of the extracted SOM. These results agree with previously found trends in organic matter turnover of kaolinite and smectite-associated clay. 6518,2004,2,3,Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation,Mechanisms that determine the tropical precipitation anomalies under global warming are examined in an intermediate atmospheric model coupled with a simple land surface and a mixed layer ocean. To compensate for the warm tropospheric temperature| atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) moisture must increase to maintain positive convective available potential energy (CAPE) in convective regions. In nonconvective regions| ABL moisture is controlled by different balances and does not increase as much| creating a spatial gradient of ABL moisture anomalies. Associated with this spatial pattern of the ABL moisture anomalies are two main mechanisms responsible for the anomalous tropical precipitation. In the "upped-ante mechanism|'' increases in ABL moisture are opposed by imported dry air wherever inflow from nonconvective regions over margins of convective regions occurs. The ABL moisture is not enough to meet the higher "convective ante'' induced by the warmer tropospheric temperature| so precipitation is decreased. In the "anomalous gross moist stability mechanism|'' gross moist stability is reduced due to increased ABL moisture. As a result| convection is enhanced and precipitation becomes heavier over convective regions. While the upped-ante mechanism induces negative precipitation anomalies over the margins of convective regions| the anomalous gross moist stability mechanism induces positive precipitation anomalies within convective regions. The importance of variation in gross moist stability| which is likely to differ among climate models| is suggested as a potential factor causing discrepancies in the predicted regional tropical precipitation changes. 6673,2004,4,4,Metapopulation viability analysis of the bog fritillary butterfly using RAMAS/GIS,Many species living in man-shaped landscapes are restricted to small natural habitat patches and form metapopulations; predicting their future is a central issue in applied ecology. We examined the viability of the bog fritillary butterfly Proclossiana eunomia Esper| a specialist glacial relict species| in a highly fragmented landscape (<1% of suitable habitat in 10 km(2))| by way of population viability analysis. We used comprehensive data from a long-term study in which a patchy population was monitored during ten consecutive years to parameterise a spatially structured meta-population model using commercially available platform RAMAS/GIS 3.0. Population growth rate was density-dependent and modulated by various climatic variables acting on different developmental stages of the butterfly. Density dependence was probably related to larval parasitism by a specific parasitoid. Population size was negatively affected by an increase in the mean temperature. Dispersal was modelled as the observed proportion of movements between patches| taking into account the probability of emigration out of a given patch. Our model provided results close to the picture of the system drawn from the field data and was considered as useful in making predictions about the metapopulation. Demographic parameters proved to have a far higher impact on metapopulation persistence than dispersal or correlation of local dynamics. Scenarios simulating both global warming and management of habitat patches by rustic herbivore grazing indicated a decrease in the viability of the metapopulation. Our results prompted the regional nature conservation agency to modify the planned management regime. We urge conservation biologists to use structured population models including local population dynamics for viability analysis targeted to such threatened metapopulations in highly fragmented landscapes. 6540,2004,3,3,Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from a paddy field with Japanese conventional water management and fertilizer application,The seasonal courses of methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) fluxes were simultaneously monitored in a paddy field using a closed chamber system with automated gas sampling and analyzing equipment. Water management and fertilizer application practices followed Japanese conventional ones. CH(4) flux gradually increased after the first flood irrigation of the field and reached similar to150 mg CH(4) m(-2) d(-1) at the beginning of July. After the first summer drainage| however| CH(4) flux dropped rapidly to almost zero within a few days. CH(4) flux then gradually increased again according to intermittent flood irrigations| but was much less than that before the first drainage. Immediately after the first flood irrigation| N(2)O flux rapidly increased| although its temporal peak lasted only within a few days. During the subsequent continuously and intermittently flooded periods| N(2)O flux remained at almost zero until the final drainage| except for slight and temporal peaks just after the top-dress application of supplemental fertilizer. About 1 week after the final drainage in autumn| N(2)O flux gradually increased| and the most significant high peak of N(2)O flux was observed after the harvest of rice plants| which lasted for about 2 weeks. The amounts of cumulative CH(4) and N(2)O emissions throughout the whole year of 2002 were 3128 mg CH(4) m(-2) and 60.2 mg N m(-2)| respectively. Both the amounts of cumulative CH(4) and N(2)O emissions during the rice cultivation period were low compared with those reported in previous studies. These results suggest the advantage of Japanese conventional water management and fertilizer application for reducing the combined effect for global warming by CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from paddy fields| since the practices of drainage and intermittent flood irrigation in summer markedly lessen CH(4) emission in the latter half of the rice cultivation period with little enhancement of N(2)O emission. 6382,2004,3,3,Methane emissions from a constructed wetland treating wastewater - seasonal and spatial distribution and dependence on edaphic factors,Constructed wetlands for wastewater treatment have many advantages. They can be used for several purposes| for example| to reduce levels of organic matter and nutrients| and to retain toxic metals. However| most wetlands are inherently net sources of gaseous compounds like methane and nitrous oxide| which are of environmental concern due to their rapid current accumulation in the atmosphere and their potent global warming capacity. In order to determine the flux of methane from a constructed wetland a study was conducted over two growth seasons on a pilot scale wetland constructed to reduce nutrient levels in secondary treated wastewater. The emissions for the spring to autumn period averaged 141 mg CH(4) m(-2) d(-1) (S.D. = 187)| ranging from consumption of 375 mg CH(4) m(-2) d(-1) to emissions of 1739 mg CH(4)m(-2) d(-1) . The spatial and temporal variations were large| but could be accounted for by measured environmental factors. Among these factors| sediment and water temperatures were significant in all cases and independent of the scale of analysis (r(2) up to 0.88). (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6459,2004,2,3,Methane fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at northern high latitudes during the past century: A retrospective analysis with a process-based biogeochemistry model,[1] We develop and use a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to study how rates of methane (CH4) emissions and consumption in high-latitude soils of the Northern Hemisphere have changed over the past century in response to observed changes in the region's climate. We estimate that the net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from these soils have increased by an average 0.08 Tg CH4 yr(-1) during the twentieth century. Our estimate of the annual net emission rate at the end of the century for the region is 51 Tg CH4 yr(-1). Russia| Canada| and Alaska are the major CH4 regional sources to the atmosphere| responsible for 64%| 11%| and 7% of these net emissions| respectively. Our simulations indicate that large interannual variability in net CH4 emissions occurred over the last century. Our analyses of the responses of net CH4 emissions to the past climate change suggest that future global warming will increase net CH4 emissions from the Pan-Arctic region. The higher net CH4 emissions may increase atmospheric CH4 concentrations to provide a major positive feedback to the climate system. 6610,2004,3,4,Methane losses from floating gasholder type biogas plants in relation to global warming,Methane losses from uncovered portion of cattle dung slurry in biogas plant of various capacities (3| 6| 9| and 85 m(3)) are measured using closed chamber method. Measurements are conducted from January to December 2002 during a year. Mean methane flux from different exposed areas of a biogas plant of 3 m(3) capacity are: (i) Inlet/outlet pipes; 70 g/m(2)/d| (ii) Around gasholder; 87 g/m(2)/d| and (iii) Slurry tank; 41 g/m(2)/d| and increased by 15-20 per cent with the increase in plant capacity to 85 m(3). Seasonal variation of slurry temperature strongly affects the methane emission. Emission rates during the summer are found to be high (125| 179| 230 and 230 g/m(2)/d| respectively| from the hold er side of 3| 6| 9| and 85 m(3)) at slurry temperatures near optimum mesophilic range (32degrees C during June) and drop down considerably (68 to 79 per cent) during winter at slurry temperatures in the lower psychrophilic range (13degrees C in December). The correlation coefficient between the CH4 flux and the slurry temperature is found to be positive (between 0.90 and 0.96) and significant. 6424,2004,3,3,Metrics to assess the mitigation of global warming by carbon capture and storage in the ocean and in geological reservoirs,Different metrics to assess mitigation of global warming by carbon capture and storage are discussed. The climatic impact of capturing 30% of the anthropogenic carbon emission and its storage in the ocean or in geological reservoir are evaluated for different stabilization scenarios using a reduced-form carbon cycle-climate model. The accumulated Global Warming Avoided (GWA) remains| after a ramp-up during the first similar to50 years| in the range of 15 to 30% over the next millennium for deep ocean injection and for geological storage with annual leakage rates of up to about 0.001. For longer time scales| the GWA may approach zero or become negative for storage in a reservoir with even small leakage rates| accounting for the CO2 associated with the energy penalty for carbon capture. For an annual leakage rate of 0.01| surface air temperature becomes higher than in the absence of storage after three centuries only. 6407,2004,2,3,Microcosm tests of the effects of temperature and microbial species number on the decomposition of Carex aquatilis and Sphagnum fuscum litter from southern boreal peatlands,Increased decomposition rates in boreal peatlands with global warming might increase the release of atmospheric greenhouse gases| thereby producing a positive feedback to global warming. How temperature influences microbial decomposers is unclear. We measured in vitro rates of decomposition of senesced sedge leaves and rhizomes (Carex aquatilis)| from a fen| and peat moss (Sphagnum fuscum)| from a bog| at 14 and 20degreesC by the three most frequently isolated fungi and bacteria from these materials. Decomposition rates of the bog litter decreased (5- to 17-fold) with elevated temperatures| and decomposition of the sedge litters was either enhanced (2- to 30-fold) or remained unaffected by elevated temperatures. The increased temperature regime always favoured fungal over bacterial decomposition rates (2- to 3-fold). Different physiological characteristics of these microbes suggest that fungi using polyphenolic polymers as a carbon source cause greater mass losses of these litters. Litter quality exerted a stronger influence on decomposition at elevated temperatures| as litter rich in nutrients decomposed more quickly than litter poorer in nutrients at higher temperatures (8.0%-25.7% for the sedge litters vs. 0.2% for the bryophyte litter). We conclude that not all peatlands may provide a positive feedback to global warming. Cautious extrapolation of our data to the ecosystem level suggests that decomposition rates in fens may increase and those in bogs may decrease under a global warming scenario. 2023,2004,2,4,Migration of Pacific Rim chum salmon on the high seas: insights from genetic data,Wild stocks of chum salmon| Oncorhynchus keta| have experienced recent declines in some areas of their range. Also| the release of hatchery chum salmon has escalated to nearly three billion fish annually. The decline of wild stocks and the unknown effects of hatchery fish combined with the uncertainty of future production caused by global climate change have renewed interest in the migratory patterns of chum salmon on the high seas. We studied the composition of high-seas mixtures of maturing and immature individuals using baseline data for 20 allozyme loci from 356 populations from throughout the Pacific Rim. Composition estimates were made from three time series. Two of these time series were from important coastal migratory corridors: the Shumagin Islands south of the Alaska Peninsula and the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula. The third was from chum salmon captured incidentally in the Bering Sea trawl fishery for walleye pollock. We also analyzed geographically dispersed collections of chum salmon captured in the month of July. The time series show dynamic changes in stock composition. The Shumagin Island corridor was used primarily by Northwest Alaskan and Asian populations in June; by the end of July stocks from the Alaska Peninsula and southern North America dominated the composition. The composition along the Kamchatka coast changed dramatically from primarily Russian stocks in May to primarily Japanese stocks in August; the previously undocumented presence of stocks from the Alaska Peninsula and Gulf of Alaska was also demonstrated. Immature chum salmon from throughout the Pacific Rim| including large proportions of southern North American stocks| contributed to the Bering Sea bycatch during the months of September and October. The migration routes of North American stocks is far more widespread than previously observed| and the Bering Sea is an important rearing area for maturing and immature chum salmon from throughout the species' range. 2051,2004,2,4,Migratory fuelling and global climate change,Climate-induced changes on habitats are likely to have impacts on staging| stopover ecology and fuelling in migratory birds. The effects of these changes on migratory birds are very speculative due to the lack of detailed studies and the uncertainty in climate models with respect to geographical patterns of changes but pronounced regional and species-specific differences are likely. Terrestrial birds and those using inland wetlands are likely to face more pronounced environmental challenges during migration than coastal migrants. Staging migrants may suffer from deteriorating habitats but they may| on the other hand| be able to counteract adverse conditions owing to considerable plasticity in their migratory performance. 6699,2004,4,5,Milankovitch climate reinforcements,More than a century ago| British scientist John Tyndall argued that increased heating of the oceans was needed to start a glaciation (Tyndall| J.| 1872. The forms of water in clouds and rivers ice and glaciers. International Scientific Series. The Werner Company| Akron| OH| 196 pp.). We show that he was essentially right and that the principal cause of Quaternary glaciations was the intensification of the hydrologic cycle by the warming of tropical oceans and increase of equator-to-pole temperature gradient| which led to the growth of land-based ice in the high latitudes. The change was due to decreased obliquity and to the increased intensity of the solar beam in boreal winter and spring at the expense of summer and autumn. This resulted in higher frequency of El Nino compared to La Nina anomalies. Decreased water vapor greenhouse forcing and increased reflection from expanding snowfields were also instrumental in the transition from the last interglacial into the glacial. The current orbital changes| although less extreme| are qualitatively similar. Association of recent positive seasonal anomalies of global mean temperature with El Nino events suggests that the ongoing global warming may have a significant| orbitally influenced natural component. The warming could continue even without an increase of greenhouse gases. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1933,2004,4,4,Mineral stress: the missing link in understanding how global climate change will affect plants in real world soils,Many natural and agricultural ecosystems are characterized by sub-optimal availability of mineral nutrients and ion toxicities. Mineral stresses are likely to have important| complex| and poorly understood interactions with global climate change variables. For example| most terrestrial vegetation is supported by weathered soils with some combination of low P| low Ca| Al toxicity| and Mn toxicity. Each of these stresses has complex| yet distinct| interactions with global change variables| making it very difficult to predict how plants in these environments will respond to future climate scenarios. Important| yet poorly understood| interactions include the effects of transpiration on root acquisition of soluble nutrients| particularly Ca and Si| the effects of altered root architecture on the acquisition of immobile nutrients| particularly P| the effects of altered root exudate production on Al toxicity and transition metal acquisition| and the interaction of photochemical processes with transition metal availability. The interaction of Mn toxicity with light intensity and other global change variables is discussed as an example of the complexity and potential importance of these relationships. Current conceptual models of plant response to multiple resource limitations are inadequate. Furthermore| substantial genetic variation exists in plant responses to mineral stress| and traits improving adaptation to one stress may incur tradeoffs for adaptation to other stresses. Root traits under quantitative genetic control are of central importance in adaptation to many mineral stresses. An integration of quantitative genetics with mechanistic and conceptual models of plant response to mineral stresses is needed if we are to understand plant response to global change in real-world soils. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6679,2004,3,3,Mitigating climate change impact on soybean productivity in India: a simulation study,Field experiments with soybean were conducted over a period of 1990-1998 in diverse Indian locations ranging in latitude| longitude| and elevation. These locations provided a wide range of environments for testing and validation of the crop growth (CROPGRO) model considered in this study with observed changes in soils| rainfall and other weather parameters. Model predicted satisfactorily the trends of days to flowering| maturity and grain yields. The deviations of simulated results were within +/-15% of the measurements. Validated CROPGRO model has been used to simulate the impact of climate change on soybean production in India. The projected scenarios for the Indian subcontinent as inferred from three state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) have been used in the present study. There was a decrease (ranging between about 10 and 20%) in soybean yield in all the three future scenarios when the effect of rise in surface air temperature at the time of the doubling of CO2 concentration was considered. The results obtained on the mitigatory option for reducing the negative impacts of temperature increases indicate that delaying the sowing dates would be favorable for increased soybean yields at all the locations in India. Sowing in the second season would also be able to mitigate the detrimental effects of future increases in surface temperature due to global warming at some locations. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6513,2004,3,4,Modeling impacts of management on carbon sequestration and trace gas emissions in forested wetland ecosystems,A process-based model| Wetland-DNDC| was modified to enhance its capacity to predict the impacts of management practices on carbon sequestration in and trace gas emissions from forested wetland ecosystems. The modifications included parameterization of management practices (e. g.| forest harvest| chopping| burning| water management| fertilization| and tree planting)| inclusion of detailed anaerobic biogeochemical processes for wetland soils| and utilization of hydrological models for quantifying water table variations. A 150-year management scenario consisting of three stages of wetland forest| deforestation/drainage| and wetland restoration was simulated with the Wetland-DNDC for two wetlands in Minnesota and Florida| USA. The impacts of the management scenario on carbon ecosystem exchange| methane emission| and nitrous oxide emission were quantified and assessed. The results suggested that: (1) the same management scenario produced very different consequences on global warming due to the contrast climate conditions; and (2) methane and nitrous oxide fluxes played nonnegligible roles in mitigation in comparison with carbon sequestration. 6436,2004,4,4,Modeling of carbon sequestration in coastal marsh soils,Two transects were established across submerging coastal landscapes in Dorchester County| Maryland. Extensive sampling protocol was performed along the submerging upland tidal marsh soils to model C sequestration. Coastal marsh soils are accreting vertically and migrating laterally over the low-lying forest soils to keep pace with sealevel rise. The predictive C sequestration model was a two-step linear function. Therefore| C sequestration will continue to occur by accumulation in the organic horizons and sea-level rise is the driving force. During the last 150 yr| the rate of C sequestration averaged 83.5 +/- 23 g m(-2) yr(-1). Before the last few hundred years| the predicted longterm rate of C sequestration averaged 29.2 +/- 5.35 g m(-2) yr(-1). Sampling protocol and model validation ascertain the validity of the model and placed 80% confidence and 10% accuracy on rates of C sequestration and the predictive model. The model indicated that coastal marsh soils have higher C storage capacity than upland forest soils| and soils in the Cumulic subgroup of Mollisols. In general| C storage in mineral soils tends to reach a steady-state condition| whereas C sequestration in coastal marsh soils is a continuous phenomenon. During the next century| future C sequestration in the newly formed coastal marsh soils averaged 400 +/- 162 g m(-2) yr(-1). Modeling C sequestration in coastal marsh ecosystems indicated that C storage under positive accretionary balance acts as a negative feedback mechanism to global warming. 2020,2004,2,4,Modeling species' geographic distributions for preliminary conservation assessments: an implementation with the spiny pocket mice (Heteromys) of Ecuador,GIS-based modeling of a species' environmental requirements using known occurrence records can provide estimates of its distribution for conservation assessments when other data are lacking. We used collection records| environmental variables| maps of land cover and protected areas| and the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP) to estimate the historical| current| and protected ranges of the spiny pocket mice present in Ecuador (Heteromys australis and H. teleus). The results suggest that ca. 52-63% of the distributional areas of H. australis in the country are intact| but suitable habitat in protected areas represents only approximately 11-13% of the species' historical range there. The distribution of H. teleus has been much more reduced| with only ca. 13-19% of its historical distribution still forested and an estimated 2-3% intact and falling in protected areas. Our work highlights critical areas for future fieldwork and demonstrates an integrated approach to estimating a species' current distribution for preliminary conservation assessments. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1919,2004,4,4,Modelling and measuring the spectral bidirectional reflectance factor of snow-covered sea ice: an intercomparison study,Broadband albedo is a very important geophysical parameter in the Earth surface-atmosphere interaction in either global climate change or hydrological cycle and snowmelt runoff studies. To derive the broadband albedo accurately from satellite optical sensor observation at limited bands and at a single observation angle| the bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) has to be specified quantitatively. In the present albedo derivation algorithms from the satellite radiance data| the BRF is either modelled or observed. Questions may arise as to how well a BRF model can be in the broadband albedo derivation. To help answer such questions| we studied the performance of a snow-surface BRF model for two specific cases under large solar zenith angles (65degrees and 85degrees). We measured snow-surface spectral directional reflectance under clear skies. The snow physical properties| such as snow grain size and snow density| at the same sites were also measured. In situ snow physical data are used to simulate the snow-surface BRF and hemispherical directional reflectance factor (HDRF) through a multilayered azimuth- and zenith-dependent plane-parallel radiative transfer model. The field measurements and BRF and HDRF simulations all reveal the forward-scattering nature of snow surface under large solar incidence angles| but the BRF model results depict the strongest forward-scattering patterns under such solar zenith angles. Because the HDRF is simulated through coupling of the surface BRF with radiative transfer in the atmosphere| the resulting HDRF patterns agree with the field measurements better than the simulated BRF does. The deviation of the simulated HDRF from field-based clear-sky directional reflectance (FCDR) is within +/- 10% for the central (viewing zenith angle <45degrees) and lateral sides of the viewing hemisphere. This level of agreement between the simulated HDRF and FCDR also implies that the simulated BRF model can provide remote-sensing estimates of spectral albedo with an uncertainty of +/- 10% for the same part of the viewing hemisphere. Further improvement in BRF model performance requires better handling of single scattering properties of snow grains| surface roughness| and atmospheric correction. Also| better procedures and techniques in field measurement are necessary for more accurate assessment of the performance of BRF models. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons| Ltd. 2016,2004,4,4,Modelling climate change in West African Sahel rainfall (1931-90) as an artifact of changing station locations,Since the major droughts in the West African Sahel during the 1970s| it has been widely asserted that mean annual summer rainfall has declined since the late 1960s. Explanation of this persistent regional drying trend was important for famine early-warning and global climate models. However| the network of rainfall stations changed considerably during that recent period of desiccation. Furthermore| it was difficult to reconcile the calculation of a simple mean value for a region known to have a complex spatial and temporal rainfall pattern. A simple model separated the Sahel into 'wet' and 'dry' regions. This model was inverted against mean annual summer rainfall for the Sahel between 1931 and 1990. Model predictions were found to be insensitive to initial starting conditions. The optimized parameters explained 87% of the variation in observed mean annual summer rainfall. The model predicted the mean annual rainfall in the wet 'coastal' and dry 'continental' regions of the Sahel to be 973 mm and 142 mm respectively. Consequently| the predicted long-term mean annual summer rainfall was 558 mm| 15% greater than that of the observed long-term mean (417 mm). The mean annual summer rainfall for the region was corrected by removing the influence of changing station locations over the study period. No persistent decline was found in mean annual summer rainfall| which suggested that the perceived drying trend was an artifact of the crude statistical aggregation of the data and historical changes in the climate station networks. The absence of a decline in rainfall questioned the validity of the hypotheses and speculations for the causes of the drying trend in the region and its effects on global climate change. It also increased the likelihood that changes over time in other regional and global climate station networks have influenced the performance and interpretation of global climate models. Copyright (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. 6605,2004,2,4,Modelling climate change-driven treeline shifts: relative effects of temperature increase| dispersal and invasibility,1 Global warming will probably shift treelines upslope in alpine areas and towards the pole in arctic environments. However| responses of regional treelines to climatic trends over the last century do not show any clear trends. We hypothesize that these equivocal responses may partly be caused by limitation of dispersal and/or recruitment that is species-specific to particular trees with potentially expanding ranges. 2 To test this hypothesis| we established and parameterized a temporally and spatially explicit model of plant spread and analysed its sensitivity to: (a) variation in predicted climatic trends; (b) the spatial distribution of recruits around a seed source; and (c) variation in the resistance of resident non-woody vegetation to invasion. We used data from a high mountain landscape of the Northern Calcareous Alps in Austria where the treeline is dominated by Pinus mugo Turra| a shrubby pine. 3 Low growth rates and long generation times| together with considerable dispersal and recruitment limitation| resulted in an overall slow range expansion under various climate-warming scenarios. 4 Running the model for 1000 years predicted that the area covered by pines will increase from 10% to between 24% and 59% of the study landscape. 5 The shape of the dispersal curve and spatial patterns of competitively controlled recruitment suppression affect range size dynamics at least as severely as does variation in assumed future mean annual temperature (between 0 degreesC and 2 degreesC above the current mean). Moreover| invasibility and shape of the dispersal curve interact with each other due to the spatial patterns of vegetation cover in the region. 6 Ambiguous transient responses of individual treeline systems may thus originate not only from variation in regional climatic trends but also from differences in species' dispersal and recruitment behaviour and in the intensity and pattern of resistance of resident alpine vegetation to invasion. 6423,2004,2,4,Modelling olive flowering date using chilling for dormancy release and thermal time,Phase development of the olive tree is important for many purposes (e.g. adaptability| management| crop modelling). Many studies on the prediction of flowering used only data from one location and/or use a simple thermal time approach| what impairs the model ability to be used under different conditions. In this study| three models were evaluated and compared. Model 1 is a chill-heating model| that is a generalisation and simplification of the Utah model| with a thermal time approach in the forcing phase; Model 2 has a below 7degreesC chill-hours model| followed by the same approach in the forcing phase; and Model 3 has no chilling description| and relies on a thermal time approach after 1 February. All models were calibrated using a data set of dates of flowering of five olive varieties that were grown in at least three locations| and the total chilling units accumulated (TU) until bud dormancy release| in the first two models| and the thermal time (TT) from this phase until flowering occurrence were determined. Validation followed on pooled data from 10 varieties grown in Cordoba| using the parameters from the calibration process (i.e. species level parameters) and the variety-specific TUs and TTs. The modelling efficiency was 0.92| 0.90 and 0.85| and the root mean square error of the predictions was 2.2| 2.5 and 2.8 days for Models 1-3| respectively. Although all three models depicted a good performance| Model 1 is more appropriate because it is physiologically meaningful. It should be preferred in all cases that the satisfaction of the chilling requirements of the species or variety is in doubt| and under different climate conditions. Three global warming scenarios A-C (daily maximum-minimum temperature increases of 1-3 degreesC) were analysed| using the three models. All models and scenarios predict that there is a substantial advancement of the date of flowering. Only Models 1 and 2 show that the warmer scenarios indicate no normal flowering in some varieties/years. Models 1 and 2 further show the possibility that some compensation occurs in the warmer scenarios. Scenario A predicts that flowering is 10.0 and 9.3 days earlier than normal using Models I and 2| respectively. Scenario C shows that the advance of flowering for 1degreesC average temperature increase| in relation to Scenario B| is 7.4 and 5.2 days for Models 1 and 2| respectively. Model 1 and the algorithm that accompanies it might be useful to model the flowering occurrence of other woody species. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6726,2004,2,3,Modelling the climate system response to small external forcing,In this paper| we give some results of an investigation into the climate system sensitivity to small external forcings. We analyse the response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide content in 18 climate models involved in the CMIP program. It is shown that of vital importance in the total response is its radiative component. Moreover| a significant contribution is made by a dynamical response whose main component is the Arctic Oscillation. We describe the method of calculating the operator of the dynamical response of climate models and the real climate system to these external forcings (the calculation of the first moment perturbation). It is shown that the approximate response operator allows one to reproduce both the value and the spatial structure of the linear part of the response of the atmospheric general circulation model with high accuracy. The external forcing optimally exciting the Arctic Oscillation is constructed by the observational data and the results of modelling. It is shown that the radiative response of climate models to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide content is mainly due to an amount of heat used for warming up the ocean and the extent to which the radiation balance of the Earth varies due to cloudiness change as the climate changes. In models predicting the large value of the global warming the short-wave radiation balance on the surface generally increases| whereas the small value of the global warming corresponds to the decrease of the short-wave radiation balance. We discuss the dependence of the value of the global warming| as the carbon dioxide content increases| on the geographical distribution of the incoming short-wave radiation as well as the correction of a heat flux when modelling the present-day climate. Using this dependence| we estimate the expected value of the global warming| as the carbon dioxide content increases| for the real climate system. 6628,2004,2,4,Modern glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro as evidence of climate change: Observations and facts,In recent years| Kilimanjaro and its vanishing glaciers have become an 'icon' of global warming| attracting broad interest. In this paper| a synopsis of (a) field observations made by the authors and (b) climatic data as reported in the literature (proxy and long-term instrumental data) is presented to develop a new concept for investigating the retreat of Kilimanjaro's glaciers. based on the physical understanding of glacier-climate interactions. The concept considers the peculiarities of the mountain and implies that climatological processes other than air temperature control the ice recession in a direct manner. A drastic drop in atmospheric moisture at the end of the 19th century and the ensuing drier climatic conditions are likely forcing glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro. Future investigations using the concept as a governing hypothesis will require research at different climatological scales. Copyright (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. 2022,2004,4,4,Modification of growing-season surface temperature records in the northern Great Plains due to land-use transformation: Verification of modelling results and implication for global climate change,Land-use and land-cover change can modify near-surface atmospheric condition. Mesoscale modelling studies have shown that modification in land use affects near-surface soil moisture storage and energy balance. Such a study in the Great Plains showed that changes in land use from natural grass to irrigated agriculture enhanced soil water storage in the root zone and increased latent energy flux. This increase in latent energy flux would correspond to a decrease in sensible heat flux and| therefore| modify near-surface temperature records. To verify this deduction| we have investigated the changes in the historical near-surface temperature records in Nebraska| USA. We have analysed the long-term mean monthly maximum| minimum| and monthly mean air temperature data from five irrigated and five non-irrigated sites. The cooperative weather observation (coop) network is the source of the data. We have found that there is a clear trend in decreasing mean maximum and average temperature data for irrigated sites. For example| York| NE| reports that the mean maximum growing season temperature is decreasing at the rate -0.01 degreesC year(-1). The results from non-irrigated sites indicated an increasing trend for the same parameters. The data from Halsey| NE| indicate a +0.01 degreesC year(-1) increase in this century. In addition| we have conducted similar analyses of temperature data for the National Climatic Data Center's Historical Climatic Network data set for the same locations. The results are similar to that obtained with the coop data set. Further investigation of dew-point temperature records for irrigated and non-irrigated sites also show an increasing and decreasing trend respectively. Therefore| we conclude that the land-use change in the Great Plains has modified near-surface temperature records. Copyright (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. 6686,2004,2,4,Movements| habitat use and feeding success of cultural clans of South Pacific sperm whales,1. The population of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) in the South Pacific is divided into at least five sympatric vocal clans that almost certainly reflect cultural variation. 2. We investigated differences in movements and feeding success of groups from different clans off the Galapagos Islands and northern Chile| using data from 87 days spent tracking groups of known clan. 3.Groups from different clans showed different use of habitat and movement patterns. Off the Galapagos Islands| 'Plus-one' clan groups moved in relatively straight lines while 'Regular' clan groups had more convoluted tracks and a more inshore distribution| patterns which were consistent across years. 4. Groups from different clans had different defecation rates| indicating between-clan variation in feeding success. Off the Galapagos Islands| 'Plus-one' clan groups were more successful in the depauperate ENSO ('El Nino/Southern Oscillation') conditions of 1987. However| in the cooler conditions of 1989| groups of the 'Regular' clan had much higher feeding success than those of the 'Plus-one' clan. 5. Thus we suggest that cultural inheritance in sperm whales incorporates foraging strategy as well as vocal patterns| and that clan membership has fitness consequences. 6. That clans seem differentially affected by altered climate conditions has implications for the effects of global warming on sperm whales. 7. The results also support the hypothesis that culturally determined differences in fitness may have affected genetic evolution through the process of cultural hitchhiking. 2001,2004,4,4,MSA in Beijing aerosol,Methane sulphonate (MSA) and sulfate (SO42-) the main oxidation products of dimethyl sulfide (DMS)| are the target of atmospheric chemistry study| as sulfate aerosol would have important impact on the global climate change. It is widely believed that DMS is mainly emitted from phytoplankton production in marine boundary layer (MBL)| and MSA is usually used as the tracer of non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO42- ) in marine and coastal areas (MSA/SO42- = 1/18). Many observations of MSA were in marine and coastal aerosols.. To our surprise| MSA was frequently (>60%) detected in Beijing TSP| PM10| and PM2.5 aerosols| even in the samples collected during the dust storm period. The concentrations of MSA were higher than those measured in marine aerosols. Factor analysis| correlation analysis and meteorology analysis indicated that there was no obvious marine influence on Beijing aerosols. DMS from terrestrial emissions and dimethyl sulphoxide (DMSO) from industrial wastes could be the two possible precursors of MSA. Warm and low-pressure air masses and long time radiation were beneficial to the formation of MSA. Anthropogenic pollution from regional and local sources might be the dominant contributor to MSA in Beijing aerosol. This was the first report of MSA in aerosols collected in an inland site in China. This new finding would lead to the further study on the balance of sulfur in inland cities and its global biogeochemical cycle. 6406,2004,5,4,Mudrock-dominated fills formed in avulsion splay channels: examples from the Willwood Formation| Wyoming,Mudrock-dominated channel fills are common features of the fluvial Palaeogene Willwood Formation of Wyoming. These fills are small| on average 30 m wide and 3 m deep| and they vary from simple plugs to more lithologically complex fills with internal scour surfaces. Some fills preserve plant material| and others show pedogenic modification. All fills are located within metre-thick intervals of weakly pedogenically modified mudstones that surround ribbon sandstones. The intervals have previously been attributed to channel avulsion; the fine-grained channel fills are interpreted as crevasse-splay feeder channels within these avulsion deposits.Variation in fill type| particularly the presence of pedogenic features| appears to be related to floodplain drainage. Possible factors that influenced drainage were basin position of the fills and Palaeogene climate fluctuations| although the role of either is not unequivocal. In general| channel fills with sombre colours and preserved plant detritus| indicating poorly drained conditions| dominate locations that were proximal to the Palaeogene basin axes. Fills that contain root traces| red and yellow-brown matrix colours and mottling| which indicate pedogenic modification and episodic subaerial exposure of the sediment| dominate locations that were more distal to the Palaeogene basin axes. Eocene climate fluctuations| particularly episodes of global warming| may have been a secondary control on the kind of fill that developed. Mudrock-dominated channel fills have not been described previously from ancient avulsion deposits. Their common presence in the Willwood Formation suggests that they are a typical component of avulsion belts and that similar channel fills in other stratigraphic units should be considered with regard to channel avulsion. The variety of fills observed in the Willwood Formation indicates that avulsion belt channels can experience very different fill histories. The descriptive details of fills provided here should help in their recognition elsewhere. In addition| the nature of the channel fill provides important information on ancient drainage conditions in the avulsion belt. Pedogenically modified channel fills have been recognized only rarely from the stratigraphic record. Their presence throughout the Willwood Formation suggests that they should exist in other alluvial successions and may have been overlooked previously. They indicate that periods of sediment exposure alternated with episodic influxes of water and sediment in an active avulsion belt. 1953,2004,2,4,Municipal heat wave response plans,Approximately 400 people die from extreme heat each year in the United States| and the risk of heat waves may increase as a result of global climate change. Despite the risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality| many cities lack written heat response plans. In a review of plans from 18 cities at risk for heat-related mortality| we found that many cities had inadequate or no heat response plans. This is an important area for further investigation and government attention. 1965,2004,2,4,Mycorrhizal fungi as drivers of ecosystem processes in heathland and boreal forest biomes,The importance of mycorrhizas in heathland and boreal forest biomes| which together cover much of the landmass of the Northern Hemisphere and store most of the global stocks of carbon| is reviewed. The taxonomic affinities of the organisms forming these symbiotic partnerships are assessed| and the distinctive structural features of the ericoid mycorrhizas of heathland dwarf shrubs and the ectomycorrhizas of boreal forest trees are described. It is stressed that neither in terms of the geographical distribution of the plants nor in terms of the occurrence of their characteristic mycorrhizas in the soil profile should these biomes be considered to be mutually exclusive. What unites them is their apparent affinity for acidic organic soils of inherently low accessibility of the major nutrients nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). These properties relate directly to the nature of the nutrient-poor recalcitrant litter produced by their host plants and through positive-feedback mechanisms that are reinforced by selective removal of labile nutrients by the mycorrhizas. We suggest that coevolution of these plant litter traits with mycorrhizal associations that are adapted to them has been one of the defining features of these ecosystems. Ericoid and ectomycorrhizal fungi have biochemical and physiological attributes that make them highly efficient at scavenging for organic sources of N and P in surface soil horizons. In so doing| they restrict supplies of these elements to the decomposer communities. Case studies involving exploitation of N and P in defined organic substrates are described. In both biomes the dominant plants depend upon the abilities of their fungal partners to recover nutrients| so the symbioses control nutrient cycles| productivity| species composition| and functioning of these ecosystems. It is in this context that the fungal symbionts are here considered to be drivers of nutritional processes in their respective biomes. Through their influences upon the quality of carbon residues mycorrhizal fungi must also affect the sink-source balance for this key element in soil. There is an urgent need for the evaluation of the relative contributions of symbiotic and saprotrophic components of the microflora to the processes of carbon storage and cycling in these biomes| particularly in the context of global climate change and impacts of anthropogenic pollutant N deposition. 6329,2004,4,4,N2O emission and CH4 uptake in arable fields managed under conventional and reduced tillage cropping systems in northern Japan,Nitrous oxide (N2O) emission and methane (CH4) uptake were measured in an experimental long-term tillage field (Andosol) in Hokkaido| northern Japan| to assess their contributions to net global warming| associated with arable crop production. From May 2001 to August 2002| the field was cultivated with winter wheat| adzuki bean| sugar beet| potato| and cabbage| where the total N applied was 110| 40| 150| 60| and 220 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)| respectively. Under conventional tillage (CT) cropping systems| basal N fertilization and plowing for residue incorporation had little effect on N2O fluxes| but vigorous N2O emission was observed when rotary harrowing was used for incorporating N-rich cabbage residues into soil in summer. Also| high N2O emissions occurred when there was heavy rainfall after a large amount of N fertilizer had been applied to sugar beet and also when there was thawing of frozen soil and snow in the winter wheat treatment. Despite the differing N2O flux patterns among the crops| the annual N2O emissions from each crop were positively correlated with the total N applied as fertilizer. Under CT systems| across all five crops| the mean N2O emission factor (the percent ratio of N2O-N emitted out of total N applied as fertilizer) was 0.36%. Under reduced tillage (RT) cropping systems| where crop residues were left on the ground over winter| large quantities of N2O were emitted from adzuki bean and sugar beet residues when the frozen soil and snow thawed. Therefore| total N2O emissions from adzuki bean and sugar beet cultivated under RT systems were much greater than under CT systems. The rates of CH4 uptake by arable soils were less sensitive to crop type| field management practices| and fertilizer application rates| but the rates were strongly influenced by long-term tillage management. For fallow| winter wheat| adzuki bean| and sugar beet treatments| the CH4 uptake rates in the CT soils (1.36 kg CH4 ha(-1) yr(-1))| which had a 20-year history of intensive plowing| were lower than those in the RT soils (2.40 kg CH4 ha(-1) yr(-1)). Thus RT production systems improved CH4 uptake by arable soils| although they adversely affected N2O emissions for adzuki bean and sugar beet production. 2046,2004,4,4,N2O exchange within a soil and atmosphere profile in alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,Knowledge of nitrous oxide (N2O) exchanges through soils and atmosphere in various ecosystems has been of great importance in global climate change studies. However| the relative magnitude of surface and subsurface N2O production sources from the alpine grassland ecosystem is unclear. In the present study| the N2O concentration profile from 1.5 m in depth in soil to 32 m in height in air was measured from July 2000 to July 2001 in alpine grassland located in the permafrost area of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau| which revealed that N2O concentrations had a distinct variation pattern both in air and in soil during the study period. Mean N2O concentrations in the atmosphere were significantly lower than those in the soil| which induced the N2O emission from the alpine steppe soil into the atmosphere. Mean flux of N2O in this alpine grassland experiment site was 0.05x10(-4) mumol(.)m(-2.)s(-1). But the variation in N2O emissions did not show any clear trends over the whole-year experiment in our study site. The highest N2O concentration was found at the depth of 1.5 m in the soil while the lowest N2O concentration occurred at the height of 8 m in the atmosphere. Mean N2O concentrations in the soil increased significantly with depth. This was the influence of increasing soil moistures| which induced the increasing denitrification potential with depth. The mean N2O concentrations at different heights in the air remained a more steady state because of the atmospheric negotiability. Seasonal variations of N2O concentrations showed significant correlations between the neighbor layers both in the soil and in the atmosphere. The seasonal variations of N2O concentrations at all horizons in the soil showed very clear patterns| with the highest concentrations occurring from the onset of frost to the freeze-thaw period and lowest concentrations occurring during the spring and the summer. Further analyses showed that the seasonal variations of N2O concentrations in the soil were hardly explained by soil temperatures at any depth. Temporally| atmospheric N2O concentrations at all heights exhibited almost the same seasonal pattern with the soil N2O variations| while soil is believed to be the predominant natural source of atmospheric N2O near the earth surface in this alpine grassland area. Also| a significant correlation was found between N2O emissions and soil N2O concentrations at 0.2 m in depth during the study period. This implied the variation of N2O concentrations in the soil surface horizon was the most direct driving force of N2O exchanges between the soil and the atmosphere. Soil atmospheric N2O at surface layers is the main source of N2O emissions from the soil surface to the atmosphere. Soil N2O concentrations at deeper layers were all significantly higher than those at surface layers| which indicated that N2O was diffused from the deeper layers to the surface layers in the soil| and finally was emitted to the atmosphere. 6477,2004,5,4,Nannofossil assemblage fluctuations during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum at Sites 213 (Indian Ocean) and 401 (North Atlantic Ocean): palaeoceanographic implications,The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was an abrupt global warming event at similar to 55 Ma. This event had profound effects on the. biosphere. Quantitative investigations of calcareous nannofossil assemblages were performed across the PETM| at Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 213| in the tropical Indian Ocean| and Site 401| in the Bay of Biscay| North Atlantic Ocean| at a temperate latitude. Calcareous nannofossil assemblages from both sites show major changes before| during| and after the PETM. Fluctuations at Site 213 are affected by selective dissolution of the least robust taxa. By contrast| assemblages in the lower part of the PETM at Site 401 show less diagenetic alteration and display high abundances of genera such as Discoaster| Fasciculithus| and Ericsonia. These taxa reflect relatively warm and| probably| oligotrophic surface waters. Abundances of the genus Chiasmolithus| an indicator of relatively cool and eutrophic waters| decreased dramatically. The upper portion of the PETM is characterized by an increase in the abundance of Toweius spp. and Zygrhablithus bijugatus| interpreted as a return to cooler and more eutrophic conditions. The elimination of Fasciculithus was probably due to competition with the holococcolith species| Z. bijugatus| which occupied the same ecological niche. The occurrences of long-armed and asymmetrical Discoaster species such as Discoaster araneus| Discoaster anartios| and Discoaster okadai| and Rhomboaster species| such as Rhomboaster calcitrapa and Rhomboaster cuspis| are characteristic of the PETM interval. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6535,2004,2,4,Near-surface hydrocarbon anomalies in shelf sediments off Spitsbergen: Evidences for past seepages,As global warming occurs| the dissociation of bound methane on Arctic shelves due to ocean current temperature changes may become a major contributor to the global methane budget| and thus contribute to strong positive climate feedback mechanisms. However| little is known about the magnitude and fate of methane emissions from shallow submarine sediments to the atmosphere in the peculiar area. In this paper| we present one of the first direct evidences for seepage on the northwestern Barents Sea shelf. By studying the molecular and isotopic signatures of low-molecular-weight hydrocarbons in seawater| near-surface sediment pore space and the sediment matrix at 26 locations| we provide a detailed view on the partitioning of gaseous hydrocarbons in the sediment-water interface off Spitsbergen. In the free gas phase| low concentration of methane (similar to28 ng/g wet Sediment) paired with constantly high isotopic values (similar to-65%) is consistent with high impact of methane oxidation on the isotopic composition. In contrast| high concentrations of adsorbed CH4 (up to 5292 ng/g wet <63 μm) and C2+ (ethane through pentane) ( up to 1724 ng/g wet <63 mum) in the sediment matrix suggest that the adsorbed gas is reasonably well protected against microbial degradation. Moreover| the isotopic and molecular signatures of adsorbed CH4 (-38-60%; similar to100-similar to5300 ng/g wet <63 μm) and C2H6 (-20--36%; &SIM;30-&SIM;1700 ng/g wet <63 mum) indicate an integrated| but strongly varying signal of historic thermally derived hydrocarbon plumes plus in situ adsorbed gas of biological origin. This suggests a minimal exchange and unlike histories of free and adsorbed gas. The majority of gaseous hydrocarbons in the adsorbed pool may be the result of past seepages. Past upward flow of thermogenic gas and impregnation with mature hydrocarbons was particularly strong along tectonic lineaments. Active petroleum source rocks along the continental margin and migration of gaseous hydrocarbons at re-activated fault systems might explain the anomalies along these conduits. 1958,2004,2,4,Neighbour identity modifies effects of elevated temperature on plant performance in the High Arctic,Competition among plants in extreme environments such as the High Arctic has often been described as unimportant| or even nonexistent; environmental factors are thought to overrule any negative plant-plant interactions. However| few studies have actually addressed this question experimentally in the Arctic| and those that did found only little evidence for competition. Such species interactions will presumably become more important in the future| as Global Climate Change takes effect on terrestrial ecosystems. We investigated plant-plant interactions in the High Arctic| following the growth of Luzula confusa and Salix polaris in pure and mixed stands| and under elevated-temperature treatment over 2 years. To understand the mechanisms of competition| a parallel experiment was undertaken in phytotrons| manipulating competition| temperature and nutrient availability. Our findings indicate that competition is acting in the natural vegetation| and that climatic warming will alter the balance of interactions in favour of the dwarf shrub S. polaris. The phytotron experiment suggested that the mechanism is a higher responsiveness of Salix to nutrient availability| which increased under warming in the field. While Luzula showed a positive response to higher temperature in the lab| its performance in mixed stands in the field was actually reduced by warming| indicating a competitive repression of growth by Salix. The growth of Salix was also reduced by the presence of Luzula| but it was still able to profit from warming. Our findings suggest that climatic warming will result in greater shrub dominance of High Arctic tundra| but we also conjecture that grazing could reverse the situation to a graminoid-dominated tundra. These two divergent scenarios would have different implications for ecosystem feedbacks to climatic change. 1964,2004,2,4,Nitrate assimilation in plant shoots depends on photorespiration,Photorespiration| a process that diminishes net photosynthesis by approximate to25% in most plants| has been viewed as the unfavorable consequence of plants having evolved when the atmosphere contained much higher levels of carbon dioxide than it does today. Here we used two independent methods to show that exposure of Arabidopsis and wheat shoots to conditions that inhibited photorespiration also strongly inhibited nitrate assimilation. Thus| nitrate assimilation in both dicotyledonous and monocotyledonous species depends on photorespiration. This previously undescribed role for photorespiration (i) explains several responses of plants to rising carbon dioxide concentrations| including the inability of many plants to sustain rapid growth under elevated levels of carbon dioxide; and (h) raises concerns about genetic manipulations to diminish photorespiration in crops. 1951,2004,2,4,Nitrogen input mediates the effect of free-air CO2 enrichment on mycorrhizal fungal abundance,Plots containing Lolium perenne L.| Trifolium repens L. or a mixture of both plant species were exposed to elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO(2)) for 10 consecutive seasons using free-air CO2 enrichment technology at ETH Zurich| Switzerland. The CO2 treatment was crossed with a two-level nitrogen (N) fertilization treatment. In the tenth year| soil samples were collected on three occasions through the growing season to assess the impact of eCO(2) and N fertilization on mycorrhizal fungal abundance. Soil moisture content| which varied with harvest date| was linked to the vegetation type and was higher under eCO(2). Root weight density was affected by vegetation type: lower for clover| higher for grass. Root weight density was stimulated by eCO(2) and decreased by high N fertilization. The percent root length colonized by mycorrhizal fungi was lowest in the clover plots and highest in the grass plots. High N significantly decreased root length colonized. There was no overall effect of eCO(2) on root length colonized; however| there was a significant eCO(2)x N interaction: eCO(2) increased root length colonized at high N| but decreased root length colonized at low N. Extraradical mycorrhizal hyphal density was linked to soil moisture content. Extraradical mycorrhizal hyphal density was not affected by eCO(2) or high N individually| but as for root length colonized| there was a significant eCO(2)x N interaction: eCO(2) increased extraradical mycorrhizal hyphal density at low N but not at high N. These environmental effects on root colonization and external mycorrhizal hyphae were independent of soil moisture content and root weight density. This field study demonstrated a significant mediating effect of N fertilization on the response of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi to eCO(2) irrespective of any change in root biomass. 6644,2004,2,4,Nocturnal warming increases photosynthesis at elevated CO2 partial pressure in Populus deltoides,We measured night-time respiration and daytime photosynthesis of leaves in canopies of 4 m tall cottonwood (Populus deltoides) trees to investigate the link between leaf respiration and photosynthetic capacity. Trees were grown at three CO2 partial pressures [p(CO2)(a)] (42| 80| 120 Pa) and experimentally exposed to differing nocturnal temperatures (15| 20 or 25degreesC)| but constant daytime temperatures (30-32degreesC)| in a short-term whole-ecosystem environmental manipulation. Rates of night-time leaf dark respiration (R-d) increased significantly at all growth CO2 partial pressures when nocturnal temperatures were increased from 15 to 25degreesC. Predawn leaf nonstructural carbohydrate (soluble sugars and starch) content was significantly lower at the higher night temperatures. Photosynthetic capacity (A(max)) during the day increased significantly between 15 and 25degreesC at 42 and 80 Pa| but not at 120 Pa. These findings indicate that the previously determined relationships between elevated night-time temperature| dark respiration and increased photosynthetic capacity may also hold at elevated p(CO2)(a). This response may have a significant influence on plant and ecosystem carbon exchange under global change scenarios. 6483,2004,3,4,Non-symbiotic bacterial diazotrophs in crop-farming systems: can their potential for plant growth promotion be better exploited?,Biological N(2) fixation (BNF) by associative diazotrophic bacteria is a spontaneous process where soil N is limited and adequate C sources are available. Yet the ability of these bacteria to contribute to yields in crops is only partly a result of BNF. A range of diazotrophic plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria participate in interactions with C(3) and C(4) crop plants (e.g. rice| wheat| maize| sugarcane and cotton)| significantly increasing their vegetative growth and grain yield. We review the potential of these bacteria to contribute to yield increases in a range of field crops and outline possible strategies to obtain such yield increases more reliably. The mechanisms involved have a significant plant growth-promoting potential| retaining more soil organic-N and other nutrients in| the plant-soil system| thus reducing the need for fertiliser N and P. Economic and environmental benefits can include increased income from high yields| reduced fertiliser costs and reduced emission of the greenhouse gas| N(2)O (With More than 300 times the global warming effect of CO(2))| as well as reduced leaching of NO(3)(-)-N to ground water. Obtaining maximum benefits on farms from diazotrophic| plant growth promoting biofertilisers will require a systematic strategy designed to fully utilise all these beneficial factors| allowing crop yields to be maintained or even increased while fertiliser applications are reduced. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6562,2004,4,3,Nonlinear aspects of the climate response to greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing,In a series of equilibrium experiments the climate response to present-day radiative forcings of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol particles is calculated. The study was performed with a model system consisting of the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean and thermodynamic sea ice model. The model includes transport of the relevant chemical constituents| a sulfur chemistry model that calculates sulfate production in the gas and aqueous phase| and an aerosol model that accounts for source and sink processes. The aerosol cycle| the hydrological cycle| and the atmospheric dynamics are fully interactive. The climate response to aerosol forcing is not just a mirror image of the response to greenhouse forcing. This applies to the temperature changes| which are regionally more uniform for greenhouse forcing than for aerosol forcing as is already well known| and| in particular| to the hydrological cycle: the global hydrological sensitivity (Deltaprecip/Deltatemp) to a 1-K surface temperature change is almost 3 times higher for aerosol forcing than for greenhouse forcing. When both forcings are combined| a global warming is simulated while evaporation and precipitation decrease by about 2% K(-1)| resulting in a negative hydrological sensitivity. A strong dependency of the response to the type of forcing has also been found for the cloud water content and| consequently| for the change in cloud radiative forcing| which is substantially larger in the combined forcing experiment than in either of the individual forcing experiments. Consequently| the global warming for combined forcing is significantly smaller (0.57 K) than that obtained by adding the individual changes (0.85 K). Due to feedbacks between temperature changes and the hydrological cycle the simulated aerosol load| applying the same source strength| is considerably lower in a warmer climate (-17% K(-1) warming). A consequence of this aerosol-temperature feedback could be that a future increase in greenhouse gases may reduce the aerosol burden even if the source strength would not change. 6561,2004,4,4,North Atlantic Ocean wave climate change scenarios for the twenty-first century,Using the observed relationships between sea level pressure (SLP) and significant wave height (SWH) as represented by regression models| climate change scenarios of SWH in the North Atlantic were constructed by means of redundancy analysis ( for seasonal means and 90th percentiles of SWH) and nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis ( for seasonal extreme SWH). SWH scenarios are constructed using output from a coupled climate model under three different forcing scenarios. Scenarios of future anomaly seasonal statistics of SWH are constructed using climate model projections of anomaly seasonal mean SLP while projections of seasonal extreme SWH are made using projections of seasonal mean SLP and seasonal SLP gradient index. The projected changes in SWH are assessed by means of a trend analysis. The northeast Atlantic is projected to have increases in both winter and fall seasonal means and extremes of SWH in the twenty-first century under all three forcing scenarios. These changes are generally accompanied by decreases in the midlatitudes of the North Atlantic and increases in the southwest North Atlantic. The rate and sign of the projected SWH change is not constant throughout the twenty-first century. In the Norwegian and North Seas| the projected SWH changes are characterized either by faster increases in the late decades than in the early decades| or by decreases in the early decades followed by increases| depending on the forcing scenario and the specific location. Using lower or higher rates of increase in greenhouse gases forcing generally leads to reduced or increased rates of change| respectively| in ocean wave heights. The sign and rate of future wave height changes in the North Sea in particular appear to be quite dependent on the forcing conditions. In general| global warming is associated with more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and strong cyclones| which leads to increases of wave heights in the northeast Atlantic. 6474,2004,3,3,Numerical simulation of biological impact caused by direct injection of carbon dioxide in the ocean,The direct injection of CO2 in the deep ocean is a promising way to mitigate global warming. One of the uncertainties in this method| however| is its impact on marine organisms in the near field before CO2 is diluted widely in the ocean. Since field experiments cost enormously| computational simulations are expected to show detailed information on the dilution process near injection points and its impact on marine organisms. In general| the LC50 concept is widely applied for testing the acute impact of a toxic agent on organisms. As a biological impact model we therefore consider mortality| which reflects recent laboratory experiments on zooplankton at various concentrations of CO2. Here we regard the sigmoid -transformed mortality as a linear function of time in the logarithmic scale| and not just of the concentration of CO2 in the logarithmic scale. This model was installed in a computational simulation code for the reconstruction of small-scale ocean turbulence. The results suggest that the biological effect is not significant when the ship speed is 4 knots and CO2 is injected at 0.1 ton/see in the form of a spray through 100 nozzles provided vertically on a pipe at 10 m intervals. It is therefore considered that the moving-ship method is effective for direct CO2 injection. 6638,2004,2,1,Numerical simulation of global temperature change during the 20th century with the IAP/LASG GOALS model,The JAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations| the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model| and reconstruction of solar variability spanning the period 1900 to 1997. Four simulations| including a control simulation and three forcing simulations| are conducted. Comparison with the observational record for the period indicates that the three forcing experiments simulate reasonable temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature change. The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s; sulfate aerosols offset a portion of the global warming and the reduction of global temperature is up to about 0.11degreesC over the century; additionally| the effect of solar variability is not negligible in the simulation of climate change over the 20th century. 2047,2004,5,4,Observations on permafrost ground thermal regimes from Antarctica and the Italian Alps| and their relevance to global climate change,Active-layer monitoring and the permafrost thermal regime are key indicators of climate change. The results of 3 years (1997-1999) of active-layer monitoring at one high-mountain site (La Foppa| 46degrees28' 42" N; 10degrees11' 18" E| 2670 m a.s.l.) and at one Antarctic site (Boulder Clay| 74degrees44' 45" S; 164degrees01' 17" E| 205 m a.s.l) are presented. The initial analysis of a thermal profile in a borehole (100.3 m deep) within mountain permafrost at Stelvio (3000 m a.s.l.| 46degrees30' 59"N; 10degrees28' 35" E) is also presented. At the alpine site| the active-layer thickness variations (between 193 and 229 cm) relate to both the snow cover and to the air temperature changes. By contrast| at the Antarctic site| there is a strong direct linkage only between air temperature fluctuations and active-layer variations. At the alpine (La Foppa) site| the relationship between climate and active-layer thickness is complicated by thermal offset that is almost negligible at both the Stelvio and Antarctic sites. The permafrost temperature profile at Stelvio site contains a climate signal suitable for paleoclimate reconstruction. The permafrost at this site has a mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST) of - 1.9degreesC (during 1998/1999)| an active layer of about 2.5 in thick and a total thickness of - 200 m. Analysis of the MAGST history| obtained by applying a simple heat conduction one-dimensional model| revealed the occurrence of a cold period from 1820 to 1940 followed by a warming period until 1978. Since the beginning of the 1980s| temperature dropped (less than 2degreesC) until the middle 1990s| when a new period of warming started. All these climatic changes fit well with the glacial fluctuations in the area and with other paleoclimatic information derived from different proxy data. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6426,2004,2,4,One-year measurements of surface heat budget on the ablation zone of Antizana Glacier 15| Ecuadorian Andes,Meteorological variables were recorded (14 March 2002 to 14 March 2003) at 4890 m above sea level (asl) on the Antizana Glacier 15 (0.71 km(2); 0degrees28'S| 78degrees09'W) in the tropical Andes of Ecuador (inner tropics). These variables were used to compute the annual cycle of the local surface energy balance (SEB). The four radiative fluxes were directly measured| and the turbulent fluxes were calculated using the bulk aerodynamic approach| calibrating the roughness length by direct sublimation measurements. The meteorological conditions are relatively homogeneous throughout the year (air temperature and air humidity). There is a slight seasonality in precipitation with a more humid period between February and June. During June-September| wind velocity shows high values and is responsible for intense turbulent fluxes that cause reduction of melting. Considering the SEB over the whole year| it is dominated by net radiation| and albedo variations govern melting. During the period under consideration the net short-wave radiation S (123 W m(-2)) and the sensible turbulent heat flux H (21 W m(-2)) were energy sources at the glacier surface| whereas the net long-wave radiation L (-39 W m(-2)) and the latent turbulent heat flux LE ( -27 W m(-2)) represented heat sinks. Since the OdegreesC isotherm-glacier intersection always oscillates through the ablation zone and considering that the phase of precipitation depends on temperature| temperature indirectly controls the albedo values and thus the melting rates. This control is of major interest in understanding glacier response to climate change in the Ecuadorian Andes| which is related to global warming and ENSO variability. 6742,2004,2,4,Optimisation of water use by plants,A European Commission sponsored conference on the "Optimisation of Water Use by Plants in the Mediterranean| OPTIMISE" (INCO-MED ICA3CT-2002-50005) was held in Palma de Mallorca| Balearic Islands| Spain in March 2003. The aim of the workshop was to bridge the gap between cutting edge research scientists working in molecular| genetic physiological and environmental research| with the end users of their science. More significantly| this workshop aimed to ensure that research scientists were fully aware of the needs of the politicians| policy makers and agronomists. OPTIMISE specifically targeted contact between the EU and the Mediterranean partner countries (Algeria| Egypt| Jordan| Lebanon| Morocco| Palestine Authority| Syria| Tunisia and Turkey). Water is essential for sustaining human and environmental health. Where fresh water supplies are limited| sustainable development and stability require the efficient management of water resources. Water is already scarce in up to 10 Eastern and Southern Mediterranean countries. Agriculture is by far the largest user of water resources accounting for around 75% of consumption. However| forecasts suggest that demand for agricultural products will double to support population growth forecasts for the Mediterranean| but drought is the major constraint for growing many crops. The predicted change in climate as a result of global warming and salinisation of coastal aquifers| will further exacerbate the situation (Wang et al.| 2003) and also impact on natural ecosystems (Clary et al.| 2004). Increasing the efficiency of water use within agricultural systems is critical to ensure food security and stability of agricultural production systems. Despite several initiatives there is still a gap between the research scientists and politicians and agronomists. Recent advances in molecular and genetic research have added substantially to our understanding of basic biological processes that may lead to novel technologies. To exploit these fully it is vital to improve communication between research scientists and end-users (policy makers and politicians for policy determination - agronomists for sustainable production). Developing germplasm to match the complex ecosystems| requires exploitation and integration of a variety of technologies (Humphreys et al.| 2003; Thomas| 2003; Elouafi & Nachit| 2004). The correlation of phenotype with the pattern of gene expression (the transcriptome) may be considered one way of bridging the gap between genotype and phenotype (Wilson et al.| 2003). Underpinning some approaches to crop improvement| is the ability to routinely transform major crop species (e.g. wheat| Pastori et al.| 2001; Sparks et al.| 2001) and to identify key genes and regulatory elements by tagging or mutagenesis (e.g. wheat| Salguero et al.| 2002). However| the more traditional disciplines such as crop physiology| still have an important role to play in providing a better understanding of the physiological and morphological traits associated with desired characteristics such as crop yield and quality| resource use efficiency and tolerance of drought (Masclaux et al.| 2001; Slafer| 2003; Araus et al.| 2003; Forster et al.| 2004; Lefi et al.| 2004). In addition| the contribution of effective management of the available water resource through agronomic practice cannot be ignored (Peterson & Westfall| 2004). 6646,2004,2,4,Optimum temperature and food-limited growth of larval Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) on Georges Bank,We estimated recent growth of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Metahogrammus aeglefinus) larvae collected on the southern flank of Georges Bank in May 1992-94 from the ratio of RNA to DNA (RID) and water temperature. Growth of both species increased with water temperature to about 7degreesC and then decreased. The highest growth rates were observed in May 1993 at water temperatures around 7degreesC. These data confirm an earlier observation of comparable temperature optima for growth of Atlantic cod and haddock larvae in the north-West Atlantic. Comparisons of field growth rates and temperature optima with data for larvae cultured at high temperatures and prey densities in the laboratory suggest that growth may have been food-limited at higher temperatures on Georges Bank. Given that 7degreesC is the long-term mean water temperature on the southern flank in May and that climate models predict a possible 2-4degreesC rise in water temperatures for the western North Atlantic| our findings point to a possible adverse effect of global warming on Atlantic cod and haddock. 2029,2004,4,4,Organic aerosol formation via sulphate cluster activation,[ 1] The formation of aerosols| and subsequent cloud condensation nuclei| remains one of the least understood atmospheric processes upon which global climate change critically depends. Under atmospheric conditions| the process of homogeneous nucleation (formation of stable clusters -1 nm in size)| and their subsequent growth into new particles (>3 nm)| determines the aerosol and cloud nuclei population| yet| hitherto| no theory has elucidated the new particle formation phenomenon in detail. In this study| we present a new theory which provides a mechanistic explanation for new particle formation via activation of stable inorganic clusters by organic vapors. The new nano-particle activation theory is analogous to Kohler theory which describes cloud formation in a supersaturated water vapor field but differs in that it describes the activation of inorganic stable nano-clusters into aerosol particles in a supersaturated organic vapor which initiates spontaneous and rapid growth of clusters. Inclusion of the new theory into aerosol formation models predicts that increases in organic vapor densities lead to even greater increases in particle production| which| in turn| will influence the global radiative cooling effect of atmospheric aerosols. 6647,2004,3,3,Organic carbon stock in forest soils in Japan,An accurate estimate of the organic carbon stock in the soil in a country allows the global estimate to be refined. This study estimated the organic carbon stock in forest soil in Japan using available data. Forest soil was classified into 15 soil units| and the extent of each soil unit was determined using digital soil and land use data. A representative value of the organic carbon density for each unit was determined from 3391 soil profiles obtained in a nationwide soil survey. The mean organic carbon density of the forest soils differed in each soil unit; the density to a depth of I in ranged from 33.0 kg m(-2) for Black soils (Andisols) to 8.2 kg m(-2) for Immature soils (Regosols). The variation within soil units was also large| and the coefficient of variation was almost 40%. The area-weighted average organic carbon density was 9.0 kg m(-2) in the first 30 cm of soil| and 18.8 kg m(-2) in the upper I in. The estimated total organic carbon stock in the forest soils of Japan was 4570 +/- 500 Tg (1 Tg= 1012 g) in the first I in (+/-95% confidence limit)| excluding carbon held in the surface organic horizons and buried horizons. The Brown forest soils group (mostly Cambisols) made the largest contribution| with over 3000 Tg C. Forty-eight percent of the total organic carbon stock (2180 Tg C) was contained in the top 30 cm. The contribution of the surface layers to the organic carbon was clear. The wide variation in organic carbon density by soil type and the high density of organic carbon on a national scale in Japan is related to the distribution of volcanic ejecta. The concentration of organic carbon in the surface layers implies that soil conservation is important both to maintain land productivity and to counter global warming. The analysis of variability in the organic carbon density with soil type demonstrated that estimation methods should be improved. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6411,2004,2,4,Oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance in cod| Gadus morhua L.| studied by magnetic resonance imaging and on-line venous oxygen monitoring,The hypothesis of an oxygen-limited thermal tolerance due to restrictions in cardiovascular performance at extreme temperatures was tested in Atlantic cod| Gadus morhua ( North Sea). Heart rate| changes in arterial and venous blood flow| and venous oxygen tensions were determined during an acute temperature change to define pejus ("getting worse") temperatures that border the thermal optimum range. An exponential increase in heart rate occurred between 2 and 16 degreesC (Q(10) = 2.38 +/- 0.35). Thermal sensitivity was reduced beyond 16 degreesC when cardiac arrhythmia became visible. Flow-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measurements of temperature-dependent blood flow revealed no exponential but a hyperbolic increase of blood flow with a moderate linear increase at temperatures >4degreesC. Therefore| temperature-dependent heart rate increments are not mirrored by similar increments in blood flow. Venous PO2 (PvO(2))| which reflects the quality of oxygen supply to the heart of cod ( no coronary circulation present)| followed an inverse U-shaped curve with highest PvO(2) levels at 5.0 +/- 0.2 degreesC. Thermal limitation of circulatory performance in cod set in below 2 degreesC and beyond 7 degreesC| respectively| characterized by decreased PvO(2). Further warming led to a sharp drop in PvO(2) beyond 16.1 +/- 1.2 degreesC in accordance with the onset of cardiac arrhythmia and| likely| the critical temperature. In conclusion| progressive cooling or warming brings cod from a temperature range of optimum cardiac performance into a pejus range| when aerobic scope falls before critical temperatures are reached. These patterns might cause a shift in the geographical distribution of cod with global warming. 6643,2004,5,4,Palaeocene-Eocene paratropical floral change in North America: responses to climate change and plant immigration,The Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM) at c. 55 Ma represents a period of rapid global warming that lasted less than 200 ka. The response of vegetation to such an event| and particularly warm-adapted highly diverse vegetation types| is poorly understood. Using pollen floral| clay mineral and stable carbon isotope analyses of sediments from the upper Tuscahoma Formation on the eastern US Gulf Coast (eastern Mississippi and western Alabama)| we document paratropical floral changes across the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary from the Wahalak #2 and lower Harrell cores. Data indicate strong changes in the abundance of kaolinite that correlate with changes in relative abundance of native pollen taxa. There is no evidence for a transient| extra-tropical flora on the US Gulf Coast that may characterize the IETM. Immigration and extinction are not associated with this event. Instead| Early Eocene plant immigration occurs in pulses and therefore is not associated directly with climate change during the IETM. The two cores share the same regional species pool but compositional differences are stronger between cores than they are either through changes in environment| increased soil erosion or chemical weathering| or through the introduction of non-native plants. Our data suggest that vegetation change across the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary is not a single event but rather a sequence of cascading events. 1918,2004,5,4,Paleoclimate and faunal evolution in the Plio-Pleistocene of Africa and South America,PALEOCLIMATE AND FAUNAL EVOLUTION IN THE PLIO-PLEISTOCENE OF AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. Climatic change is often hypothesized to be a major variable in forcing evolutionary change. Recent work on Pliocene and Pleistocene fossil mammals from the Turkana Basin of Kenya and Ethiopia shows that climate may play an important role in the spread of savanna environments| and thus in the increasing abundance of mammals adapted to open and seasonally and conditions. If global climate change is behind some of these trends in East Africa| we hypothesize that similar patterns of faunal change may occur elsewhere. An analysis of fossil mammals from the Pampean region of Argentina shows an increase in the number of species adapted to open and seasonally and conditions through the Plio-Pleistocene. The South American pattern is not identical to the East African pattern| but both show a significant increase in open and and adapted mammals shortly after 2 million years ago| at the very beginning of the Pleistocene. Although global climate change may be invoked as a common cause of these intercontinental trends| local and regional geography and tectonics play a critical role in modulating the global signal. 6439,2004,5,4,Paleoproductivity of eastern Lake Ontario over the past 10|000 years,We evaluated relative levels of paleo-primary productivity in eastern Lake Ontario during the past similar to10|000 yr via analysis of inorganic and organic sediment from the Rochester Basin. There was significant natural variability in primary production correlative with Holocene climate change. The cold post-Younger Dryas interval (similar to10-9.4 ka) was a time of minimal levels of primary production. The warm Holocene Hypsithermal interval (similar to9.4-5.3 ka) had much higher levels of primary production but was more variable| including five well-defined cycles that have an average period of similar to750 yr. The largest negative anomaly in primary productivity occurred during the 8.2-ka climate event (similar to8.4-8.0 ka)| a time of cold| dry conditions. Another negative anomaly occurred in association with the Nipissing flood (similar to6.3-5.3 ka)| which triggered a regional cooling event. The cool Holocene Neoglacial interval (similar to5.3 ka to similar to1850 A.D.) was characterized by lower| but more stable| levels of primary production| as well as by a cessation of calcite precipitation and the onset of diatom productivity. During the historic interval (similar to1850-1940 A.D.)| there was a dramatic increase in primary production to unprecedented levels over the past 10|000 yr| as well as a 30-fold increase in sediment accumulation rates. These large| abrupt changes occurred in response to regional deforestation| anthropogenic nutrient loading| and increased chemical weathering due to acid rain. We project that| during 21st century global warming| eastern Lake Ontario will evolve into an ecosystem similar to that during the Holocene Hypsithermal. 6508,2004,5,4,Palynological evidence for aridity events and vegetation change during the Middle Pliocene| a warm period in Southwestern Australia,A 110-m-thick sequence of Late Neogene lacustrine silts and clays is sealed under Quaternary cover beds in a Cretaceous meteor crater at Yallalie in semiarid to subhumid southwest Western Australia. Paleomagnetic dating confirms that these sediments accumulated between 3.6 and similar to2.5 Ma. This Middle Pliocene (Piacenzian) interval coincides with a period of pronounced global warming recorded at middle to high latitudes in both hemispheres and plant microfossils preserved at Yallalie include species now confined to temperate and subtropical-tropical rainforest in Australasia as well as taxa that dominate dry sclerophyll forest| woodland| scrub-heath and semiarid vegetation types in northern Southwest Australia today. The region at the present time supports highly diverse xeromorphic heathland| shrubland and woodland| and the data suggests species diversity was richer in the Middle to Late Pliocene. Transient upsurges in the relative abundance of semiarid zone taxa| in particular Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae| and halophytic diatoms demonstrate that warm| seasonally wet conditions within and beyond the crater were interrupted by three distinct episodes of aridification around 2.90| 2.59 and 2.56 Ma. How closely the Yallalie sequence mirrors trends in continental climates elsewhere in the middle latitudes of the southern hemisphere is as yet unclear. However| we note that the period of record overlaps with initiation of continental glaciation and an increase in the frequency and intensity of climatic fluctuations between 2.8 and 2.6 Ma in the middle latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Since the Yallalie and vegetation response appears to be similar to that seen in southeastern Australia during Late Pleistocene glacial maxima| the vegetation patterns suggest alternating cycles of high humidity and aridity analogous to Late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial conditions that were taking place by 2.5 Ma| an observation that ties in well with delta(18)O variations seen in marine cores. The data hint that the frequency of phases of relative aridity increased around 2.6 Ma. When fully analyzed| the high-resolution microfossil record will offer an exceptional opportunity to compare variability in Middle Pliocene terrestrial climates in the middle latitudes of the southern hemisphere with analogous records in the northern hemisphere. Examples are the Chinese loess| Lake Baikal in Russia and Pula Maar in Hungary| which are providing important data on orbit-related long-term climatic fluctuations during the Late Neogene and Early Quaternary. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1944,2004,4,4,PARAGON - An integrated approach for characterizing aerosol climate impacts and environmental interactions,Aerosols exert myriad influences on the earth's environment and climate| and on human health. The complexity of aerosol-related processes requires that information gathered to improve our understanding of climate change must originate from multiple sources| and that effective strategies for data integration need to be established. While a vast array of observed and modeled data are becoming available| the aerosol research community currently lacks the necessary tools and infrastructure to reap maximum scientific benefit from these data. Spatial and temporal sampling differences among a diverse set of sensors| nonuniform data qualities| aerosol mesoscale variabilities| and difficulties in separating cloud effects are some of the challenges that need to be addressed. Maximizing the long-term benefit from these data also requires maintaining consistently well-understood accuracies as measurement approaches evolve and improve. Achieving a comprehensive understanding of how aerosol physical| chemical| and radiative processes impact the earth system can be achieved only through a multidisciplinary| inter-agency| and international initiative capable of dealing with these issues. A systematic approach| capitalizing on modern measurement and modeling techniques| geospatial statistics methodologies| and high-performance information technologies| can provide the necessary machinery to support this objective. We outline a framework for integrating and interpreting observations and models| and establishing an accurate| consistent| and cohesive long-term record| following a strategy whereby information and tools of progressively greater sophistication are incorporated as problems of increasing complexity are tackled. This concept is named the Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON). To encompass the breadth of the effort required| we present a set of recommendations dealing with data interoperability; measurement and model integration; multisensor synergy; data summarization and mining; model evaluation; calibration and validation; augmentation of surface and in situ measurements; advances in passive and active remote sensing; and design of satellite missions. Without an initiative of this nature| the scientific and policy communities will continue to struggle with understanding the quantitative impact of complex aerosol processes on regional and global climate change and air quality. 6534,2004,4,4,Parametrization of the effect of surface reflection on spectral infrared radiance measurements. Application to IASI,The recent launch of the Advanced Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on board EOS-Aqua and the scheduled launch of the Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer (IASI) on board the Meteorological Operational Satellite (METOP) in 2005 open interesting perspectives for remote sensing applications. Owing to their enhanced spectral resolution and sensitivity| this new generation of high-resolution infrared vertical sounders is first aimed at improving the vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor profile retrievals needed by the weather forecasting community. Another important possible use of these instruments| in the context of the study of global warming| is to permit the retrieval of the concentrations of greenhouse gases like CO2| N2O| CH4| etc. In order to reach these two main objectives| improvement in the modeling of the radiative transfer is therefore necessary. One of the points which still needs some improvements is the contribution of the downward radiation reflected by the surface back to the satellite which is often improperly accounted for in radiative transfer calculation to save computer time. In this article| we show how it is possible to simplify the problem through the computation of a spectrally dependent "effective" emissivity for which a simple parametrization is proposed| while preserving the accuracy of the results. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6611,2004,3,4,Paraquat and sustainable agriculture,Sustainable agriculture is essential for man's survival| especially given our rapidly increasing population. Expansion of agriculture into remaining areas of natural vegetation is undesirable| as this would reduce biodiversity on the planet. Maintaining or indeed improving crop yields on existing farmed land| whether on a smallholder scale or on larger farms| is thus necessary. One of the limiting factors is often weed control; biological control of weeds is generally of limited use and mechanical control is either often difficult with machinery or very laborious by hand. Thus the use of herbicides has become very important. Minimum cultivation can also be important| as it reduces the power required to work the soil| limits erosion and helps to maintain the organic matter content of the soil. This last aspect helps preserve both the structure of soil and its populations of organisms| and also sustains the Earth's soil as a massive sink for carbon| an important consideration in the light of global warming. The introduction of the bipyridinium herbicide paraquat in the early 1960s greatly facilitated weed control in many crops. Paraquat has the unusual property of being active only by direct spray onto plants and not by uptake from soil in which strong binding deactivates it. Together with its rapid action in light in killing green plant tissue| such properties allow paraquat to be used in many crops| including those grown by low-tillage methods. This paper reviews the ways in which agricultural systems have been and are being developed to make use of these properties| and provides a risk/benefit analysis of the world-wide use of paraquat over nearly 40 years. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry. 6385,2004,5,4,Past changes in arctic terrestrial ecosystems| climate and UV radiation,At the last glacial maximum| vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna| mean annual temperatures were 10-13degreesC colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum| deglaciation started| characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18 000 and 11 400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene| there has been a modest overall cooling trend| superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the "Little Ice Age spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150 000 years| Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10 000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently| Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very as it probably advance| perhaps rapidly| into tundra areas| a it did during the early Holocene| reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards| displacing Arctic species as in the past. However| unlike the early Holocene| when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast| sea level is very likely to rise in future| further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic conditions that are apparently without precedent during the Pleistocene is likely to be considerable| particularly as their exposure to co-occurring environmental changes (such as enhanced levels of UV-B| deposition of nitrogen compounds from the atmosphere| heavy metal and acidic pollution| radioactive contamination| increased habitat fragmentation) is also without precedent. 6694,2004,5,4,Past surface temperature changes as derived from continental temperature logs - Canadian and some global examples of application of a new tool in climate change studies,The application of well temperature profiles in the context of the recent global warming debate has been in use only for the last 18 years [Science 234 (1986) 6891| but the influence of surface temperature variations due to climatic changes of all time scales on subsurface temperatures and heat flow variation with depth has been recognized for much longer [Bull. Geol. Soc. Am. 34 (1923) 703]. The borehole climate method is unique as it is based on the direct physical link between the measured temperature-depth profile and the reconstructed parameter of the past climate| the ground surface temperature (GST). It is unlike most of the other approximate methods of the past climate reconstruction. It has proved to be quite successful in reconstructing two robust signals: (a) the amplitude of the last glacial/interglacial temperature difference and (b) the surface temperature trend of the last 100-150 years and eventually| when combined with the surface air temperature series| in estimating their pre-observational means (POMs). A reconstruction of less robust signals of the little ice age| medieval climatic optimum| Boreal| Atlantic and possibly some other climatic periods of the Holocene fails even in most cases of purely conductive subsurface thermal regime. Borehole temperature profiles are not proxy for surface temperature| but a direct measure of the energy balance at the Earth's continental surface. The signal underground is| however| attenuated considerably through heat diffusion. The degradation of the signal imposes a physical limit on the information potentially retrieved from the observed subsurface temperature anomalies. We describe the basic features and problems of the method of reconstruction of GST history from the temperature-depth profiles measured in boreholes which is illustrated by Canadian and other continental examples. 6541,2004,2,5,Pattern and trend analysis of temperature in a set of seasonal ensemble simulations,Eighteen years of seasonal 10-member ensemble simulations have been performed with observed sea surface temperature (SST) to assess the ability of dynamical models to predict seasonal-interannual climate variations during boreal summer. In addition| test cases have been designed to assess the role in climate trends| predictability of land initial conditions| systematic errors of precipitation and radiation fluxes at the land surface| and increasing CO2. The model reproduces a global warming trend in surface temperature similar to that observed. This appears to be attributable to the influence of SST. However| surface flux replacement and atmospheric initialization can reduce the SST-driven trend even while improving the spatial pattern of surface air temperature. The results also show that land surface interaction has an effect both on surface temperature and the higher levels of the troposphere. However| realistically increasing CO2 concentrations have little impact in these seasonal simulations. 6723,2004,3,4,Perfluoro-n-butyl iodide: Acute toxicity| subchronic toxicity and genotoxicity evaluations,Perfluoro-n-butyl iodide (PFBI) is a promising alternative to chlorofluorocarbon solvents used in aircraft ground maintenance operations and other military and commercial operations| because it cleans well| has zero ozone depletion potential| and has extremely low global warming properties. Toxicity tests were performed with PFBI to determine and evaluate its health hazard. Using standard testing guidelines ( e. g.| Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD])| tests included acute (4-h) and 4-week (6 h/day| 5 days/week) inhalation (nose-only) toxicity studies in rats| acute (10-min) inhalation cardiac sensitization study in dogs| in vitro chromosomal aberrations experiments in human lymphocytes| and in vitro mutagenic experiments in Salmonella typhimurium and Escherichia coli. There were no mortalities in rats (n = 10) exposed for 4 h to 10|000 ppm PFBI| but all rats ( n = 10) died within 2 h when exposed to 20|000 ppm PFBI. The 4-h LC50 (95% confidence limits) was 14|000 ppm (13|000 ppm to 16|000 ppm). Signs (nasal discharge and labored breathing) observed in the rats exposed to 10|000 ppm returned to normal within 48 h. PFBI has the potential to cause cardiac sensitization in epinephrine-challenged dogs at 6200 ppm. A concentration of 3900 ppm was a no-observed-adverse-effect level ( NOAEL) in the cardiac sensitization study. In the 4-week inhalation study (5 rats/sex/group)| respiratory mucosal hypertrophy/hyperplasia was observed in rats of the 10|000-ppm group. A NOAEL of 1000 ppm was selected for the 4-week study on the basis that the mild increase in T-4 observed at 1000 ppm was considered adaptive| not adverse| because of the absence of frank effects in the thyroid. In the in vitro studies| PFBI showed no evidence of either mutagenic or clastogenic activity. The toxicity profile of PFBI was compared to trifluoroiodomethane. In conclusion| the results of these studies indicate a low order of general toxicity and an absence of genotoxicity following PFBI exposure. 6618,2004,3,3,Performance study of an energy-efficient display case refrigerator,Growing concerns over global warming due to the greenhouse effect from industrial emissions have pushed the appliance industry in Taiwan to further improve the energy efficiency of its products. The display case refrigerator is a major supermarket appliance and its life expectancy could be as long as 10 years. In response to ever-more stringent regulations on energy efficiency| a prototype has been designed for minimizing energy use. Options such as insulation improvements using vacuum insulation panels (VIPs) and vacuum glazing (VG) were examined in a display case refrigerator by measuring heat loss. Results show that energy efficiency can be improved up to 30% by simultaneously mounting the VG and VIPs on the display case refrigerator. Additionally| the frost or sweat was eliminated for the energy-efficient display case refrigerator. 6485,2004,2,4,Permafrost and infrastructure in the Usa Basin (Northeast European Russia): Possible impacts of global warming,The relationship between permafrost conditions and the distribution of infrastructure in the Usa Basin| Northeast European Russia| is analyzed. About 75% of the Basin is underlain by permafrost terrain with various degrees of continuity (isolated patches to continuous permafrost). The region has a high level of urban and industrial development (e.g.| towns| coal mines| hydrocarbon extraction sites| railway| pipelines). GIS-analyses indicate that about 60% of all infrastructure is located in the 'high risk' perma-frost area| here defined as the zones of isolated to discontinuous permafrost (3-90% coverage) with 'warm' ground temperatures (0 to -2degreesC). Ground monitoring| aerial photo interpretation| and permafrost modeling suggest a differential response to future global warming. Most of the permafrost-affected terrain will likely start to thaw within a few decades to a century. This forecast poses serious challenges to permafrost engineering and calls for long-term investments in adequate infrastructure that will payback overtime. 1980,2004,5,4,Phasing of deglacial warming and laurentide ice sheet meltwater in the Gulf of Mexico,Evidence is emerging that the tropical climate system played a major role in global climate change during the last deglaciation. However| existing studies show that deglacial warming was asynchronous across the tropical band| complicating the identification of causal mechanisms. The Orca Basin in the northern Gulf of Mexico is ideally located to record subtropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) warming in relation to mellwater input from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Paired delta(18)O and Mg/Ca data on the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber from core EN32-PC6 are used to separate deglacial changes in SST and delta(18)O of seawater. SST as calculated from Mg/Ca data increased by >3 degreesC from ca. 17.2 to 15.5 ka in association with Heinrich event I and was not in phase with Greenland air temperature. Subtracting temperature effects from delta(18)O values in G. ruber reveals two excursions representing Laurentide meltwater input to the Gulf of Mexico| one of >1.5parts per thousand from ca. 16.1 to 15.6 ka and a second major spike of >2.5parts per thousand from ca. 15.2 to 13.0 ka that encompassed meltwater pulse 1A and peaked ca. 13.8 ka during the Bolling-Allerod. Conversion to salinity through the use of a Laurentide meltwater end member of -25parts per thousand indicates that near-surface salinity decreased by 2parts per thousand-4parts per thousand during these spikes. These results suggest that Gulf of Mexico SST warming preceded peak Laurentide Ice Sheet decay and the Bolling-Allerod interval by >2 k.y. and that heat was retained in the subtropical Atlantic during Heinrich event 1| consistent with modulation of deglaciall climate by thermohaline circulation. 1970,2004,2,4,Photosynthetic down-regulation over long-term CO2 enrichment in leaves of sour orange (Citrus aurantium) trees,Understanding how trees are affected by a long-term increase in atmospheric CO2 is crucial to understanding the future impact of global climate change. Measurements of photosynthetic characteristics were made in sour orange trees (Citrus aurantium) growing under an enhanced CO2 atmosphere and N-replete soil for 14 yr to determine whether photosynthetic down-regulation had occurred. Photosynthesis| A : C-i gas exchange relationships and Rubisco activity and content were measured throughout the 14th year of the experiment. The CO2-induced enhancement ratio of photosynthesis was calculated and compared with estimates of the enhancement of cumulative wood biomass production. Content of the large subunit of Rubisco was significantly reduced by CO2 enrichment indicating that down-regulation had occurred. A high correlation between the CO2-induced enhancement of photosynthesis and the enhancement of cumulative wood biomass production suggested that the decline in wood biomass production was closely related to the decline in photosynthesis. These results indicate that long-term CO2 enrichment can result in photosynthetic down-regulation in leaves of trees| even under nonlimiting N conditions. (C) New Phytologist (2004). No claim to original US government works. 2005,2004,2,4,Photosynthetic responses of Larrea tridentata to seasonal temperature extremes under elevated CO2,Elevated CO2 potentially decreases the effects of temperature stress on photosynthesis. Under both freezing and high temperatures previous studies have shown that elevated CO2 can particularly enhance photosynthetic rates| although results from freezing studies are more variable. Here we show gas exchange responses of Larrea tridentata to elevated CO2 over a 6-yr. period when temperature stress events may have had a significant effect on photosynthesis in the field. Nighttime freezing air temperatures decreased subsequent daytime photosynthetic rates| stomatal conductance| and the maximum yield of PSII similarly under ambient and elevated CO2. Further| we found no statistically significant relationship between leaf temperature and photosynthetic enhancement. Overall| the degree of photosynthetic enhancement under elevated CO2 was directly proportional to the response of stomatal conductance to CO2. Thus| elevated CO2 does not significantly affect apparent physiological responses of Larrea to temperature extremes. However| because of the tight relationship between stomatal conductance and photosynthetic enhancement| potential climate change effects on stomatal conductance will significantly influence Larrea performance in the future. 6662,2004,2,4,Phytoplankton diversity of shallow tidal lakes: Influence of periodic salinity changes on diversity and species number of a natural assemblage,The influence of periodic salinity changes was investigated for 42 days under semicontinuous culture conditions with phosphorus limitation using phytoplankton assemblages from Lake Waihola| a tidally influenced shallow lake. To simulate tidal effects on the phytoplankton community| salinity in the cultures was increased in pulses at different intervals (3.5| 7| and 14 days)| and these cultures were compared with those that experienced constant freshwater conditions. Salinity pulses significantly affected competition and succession with a major loss in diversity during the first days of the experiment due to the initial pulse that caused a transition from freshwater to brackish conditions in the cultures. After this initial phase| diversity index (H') and species number (S-corr) decreased less rapidly. The loss in H' and S-corr over time was highest under constant freshwater conditions and lowest in the treatment with an interval of 3.5 days between salinity pulses. At the end of the experiment| the combination of initial loss in H' and S-corr and the time course of H' and S-corr resulted in a U-shaped relation between the interval length of salinity pulses and both H' and S(corr)temp1.txttemp1.txt. Our results indicate that salinity pulses at intervals of a few days tend to promote phytoplankton diversity. If saline intrusions in coastal freshwater systems occur only at spring tides| this will lead to decreases in diversity and species richness. 6601,2004,5,4,Pliocene sea surface temperature changes in ODP Site 1125| Chatham Rise| east of New Zealand,Planktonic foraminiferal census counts were converted to sea surface temperature (SST) estimates using the modern analogue technique (MAT) for the middle-late Pliocene (4.0-2.37 Ma) in ODP Site 1125| north side of Chatham Rise. SW Pacific Ocean. MAT SSTwarm records range between 8degreesC and 20.5degreesC| and MAT SSTcold records parallel that pattern but with a temperature range of 5-15degreesC. The modern position of Site 1125 is just north of the Subtropical Front and has an annual temperature range of similar to14-18degreesC. Pliocene warmest temperatures are 1-2degrees warmer than modern summers| whereas cold season SST records are up to 6-10degreesC cooler than modern winters. Overall average temperatures at the site are 2-3degreesC cooler than modern temperatures during a time of sustained global warmth. Three major cold excursions centred on 3.35| 3.0. and 2.8 Ma showed warm season temperatures over 5degreesC colder than the last glacial maximum| experiencing temperatures typical of modern subantarctic waters. Two minor cold excursions at 2.7 Ma and 2.4 Ma experienced temperatures cooler than modern winters but not as cold as last glacial conditions. Cold season SSTs show a shift to warmer climate upward through the study interval| whereas warm season estimates remain essentially unchanged. We interpret the strong regional cooling of subtropical Southwest Pacific water through the middle-late Pliocene as having been caused by increased upwelling. It is also possible that the subtropical frontal zone moved north over the site in the Pliocene| however| this is considered the least likely interpretation. Our record of cool conditions in the Southwest Pacific corroborate evidence of cooler than modern conditions in other regions of the western Pacific through the mid-Pliocene despite overall global warming. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6712,2004,4,4,Possible descent across the "Tropopause" in Antarctic winter,Descent of air from stratosphere to troposphere in Antarctic winter is proposed to be feasible| because of forcing from above by subsidence plus wave-breaking| together with suction from below to resupply the katabatic winds which flow down the slopes of the Antarctic Plateau in the boundary layer. In Antarctic winter| there is no real tropopause to prevent such descent| hence the quotes in the title: the temperature profile is often that of a radiative equilibrium atmosphere. Such descent would be important because the dryness and low precipitation over the Antarctic Plateau would be less altered during global warming| because there would be an alternative fractionation pathway for H2O18 and HDO in Antarctic ice-cores| and because the ozone budget in the unpolluted troposphere of the southern hemisphere would be significantly different. Each of these features could have a major impact on climate or on the study of climate. (C) 2003 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6725,2004,2,4,Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: an analysis for five eastern US species,We used a combination of two models| DISTRIB and SHIFT| to estimate potential migration of five tree species into suitable habitat due to climate change over the next 100 years. These species| currently confined to the eastern half of the United States and not extending into Canada| are Diospyros virginiana (persimmon)| Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum)| Oxydendrum arboreum (sourwood)| Pinus taeda (loblolly pine)| and Quercus falcata var. falcata (southern red oak). DISTRIB uses a statistical approach to assess potential suitable habitat under equilibrium of 2 x CO2. SHIFT uses a cellular automata approach to estimate migration and is driven primarily by the abundance of the species near the boundary| forest density inside and outside of the boundary| and distance between cells. For each cell outside the current boundary| SHIFT creates an estimate of the probability that each unoccupied target cell will become colonized over 100 years. By evaluating the probability of colonization within the potential 'new' suitable habitat| we can estimate the proportion of new habitat that might be colonized within a century. This proportion is low (< 15%) for all five species| suggesting that there is a serious lag between the potential movement of suitable habitat and the potential for the species to migrate into the new habitat. However| humans could hasten the migration of certain species by physically moving the propagules| especially for certain rare species that are unable to move sufficiently through fragmented landscapes| or even more common species| e.g.| beech| that have lost many of their animal dispersers. 6378,2004,2,4,Potential controls on interannual partitioning of organic carbon during the winter/spring phytoplankton bloom at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site,Seasonal dissolved organic carbon (DOC) accumulation and potential subsequent export| in addition to particulate organic carbon (POC) gravitational export| can be an important pathway of carbon removal from the surface ocean (> 100 m) at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS). We have compiled available data on seasonal DOC accumulation and POC flux during the course of the winter/spring bloom and examined some potential controls on the interannual variability of organic carbon partitioning between these two fates. When expressed as a fraction of the cumulative primary production| there was a significant negative relationship between seasonal DOC accumulation and POC flux. Over the course of the BATS data record two groups of phytoplankton| Haptophytes and Prochlorophytes| account for similar to60% of the integrated (0-140m) chlorophyll biomass. Variability in the relative abundance of Haptophytes and Prochlorophytes was significantly correlated to the export of carbon| with increased relative abundance of Haptophytes correlated with higher seasonal accumulation of DOC and lower POC fluxes. Variability in the abundance of Haptophytes during the winter/spring period was found to correlate negatively with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This relationship suggests that Haptophytes are a more important component of the phytoplankton community when a negative NAO phase enhances winter/spring mixing in the Sargasso Sea. These findings support a recent hypothesis that the increased stratification in the North Atlantic due to global warming could favor the blooming of diatoms over Haptophytes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6451,2004,2,4,Potential effects of climate change on plant species in the Faroe Islands,Aim To identify the effect of climate change on selected plant species representative of the main vegetation types in the Faroe Islands. Due to a possible weakening of the North Atlantic Current| it is difficult to predict whether the climate in the Faroe Islands will be warmer or colder as a result of global warming. Therefore| two scenarios are proposed. The first scenario assumes an increase in summer and winter temperature of 2 degreesC| and the second a decrease in summer and winter temperature of 2 degreesC. Location Temperate| low alpine and alpine areas in the northern and central part of the Faroe Islands. Methods The responses of 12 different plant species in the Faroe Islands were tested against measured soil temperature| expressed as T-min| T-max| snow cover and growing degree days (GDD)| using generalised linear modelling (GLM). Results The tolerance to changes in winter soil temperature (0.3-0.8 degreesC) was found to be lower than the tolerance to changing summer soil temperature (0.7-1.0 degreesC)| and in both cases lower than the predicted climate changes. Conclusions The species most affected by a warming scenario are those that are found with a limited distribution restricted to the uppermost parts of the mountains| especially Salix herbacea| Racomitrium fasciculare| and Bistorta vivipara. For other species| the effect will mainly be a general upward migration. The most vulnerable species are those with a low tolerance| especially Calluna vulgaris| and also Empetrum nigrum| and Nardus stricta. If the climate in the Faroe Islands should become colder| the most vulnerable species are those at low altitudes. A significantly lower temperature would be expected to produce a serious reduction in the extent of Vaccinium myrtillus and Galium saxatilis. Species like Empetrum nigrum| Nardus stricta| and Calluna vulgaris may also be vulnerable. In any case| these species can be expected to migrate downwards. 6556,2004,2,3,Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe,The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible consequences of climate change on a representative sample of forest herbs in Europe. A fuzzy climatic envelope was used to predict the location of suitable climatic conditions under two climatic change scenarios. Expected consequences in terms of lost and gained range size and shift in distribution for 26 forest herbs were estimated. These results were combined in an Index of Predicted Range Change for each species. Finally| the effects of habitat fragmentation for potential dispersal routes were evaluated and options for management on a European scale are discussed. Generally| a good agreement of the estimated suitability under the present climate and the observed current distribution was observed. However| species vary a lot in the degree to which they occupy the presently climatically suitable areas in Europe. Many species are absent from large areas with suitable climate and thus could be said to have poor range-filling capacity. A general change in location (range centroid) of the total suitable area was observed: The total suitable area will on average move strongly northwards and moderately eastwards under the relatively mild B1 scenario and more strongly so under the A2 scenario. The required average minimum migration rate per year to track the potential range shift is 2.1 km under the B1 scenario and 3.9 km under the A2 scenario. Moderate losses in the total suitable area in Europe are predicted for most species under both scenarios. However| the predicted changes are very variable| with one species (Actaea erythrocarpa) experiencing total range elimination in Europe (A2 scenario) while the total suitable area is predicted to show large increases for other species. The species that are predicted to experience the greatest proportional losses in their climatically suitable area within their presently realised range tend to have northern or eastern range centroids. The Index of Predicted Range Change roughly divides the species studied in four groups: One species face a high risk of extinction; eight species are expected to experience moderate to severe threat of extinction; 11 species are not considered at risk and| finally| six species may actually benefit from global warming. An analysis of potential migration routes shows the importance of maintaining and| if possible| improving the network of forest throughout Europe to make migration possible. It is also suggested to closely monitor the status of boreal and subalpine species that are most threatened by global warming. Finally it is recommended that special concern should be given to increased protection and restoration of forest habitats in southern montane areas for their crucial long-term importance for the maintenance of European plant diversity. 6399,2004,2,4,Potential springtime greenhouse gas emissions from a small southern boreal lake (Keihasjarvi| Finland),Concentrations of dissolved greenhouse gases (GHGs) methane (CH4)| carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were investigated in a small southern boreal lake during the late winter ice-cover in 2000| 2001 and 2002. Potential emissions of these gases to the atmosphere at ice melt were estimated from their concentration profiles in the water column under ice during winter. The concentrations of CH4| CO2 and N2O increased with the depth| but the year-to-year variations were low. Carbon dioxide contributed to 99% of the global warming potential (GWP) of the total springtime GHG emissions which ranged from 103 to 128 g CO2-equivalents m(-2). The results indicated that these kinds of northern mesotrophic lakes are not important sources of CH4 and N2O| but are probably significant sources of CO2. 6724,2004,2,3,Predicting impacts of Arctic climate change: Past lessons and future challenges,General circulation models predict increases in temperature and precipitation in the Arctic as the result of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Arctic ecosystems are strongly constrained by temperature| and may be expected to be markedly influenced by climate change. Perturbation experiments have been used to predict how Arctic ecosystems will respond to global climatic change| but these have often simulated individual perturbations (e.g. temperature alone) and have largely been confined to the short Arctic summer. The importance of interactions between global change variables (e.g. CO2| temperature| precipitation) has rarely been examined| and much experimentation has been short-term. Similarly| very little experimentation has occurred in the winter when General circulation models predict the largest changes in climate will take place. Recent studies have clearly demonstrated that Arctic ecosystems are not dormant during the winter and thus much greater emphasis on experimentation during this period is essential to improve our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to global change. This| combined with more long-term experimentation| direct observation of natural vegetation change (e.g. at the tundra/taiga boundary) and improvements in model predictions is necessary if we are to understand the future nature and extent of Arctic ecosystems in a changing climate. 1955,2004,2,4,Predicting the distribution of ground beetle species (Coleoptera| Carabidae) in Britain using land cover variables,Predictions of plant and animal species distributions are important for conservation and for the assessment of large-scale ecosystem change. Land cover data are becoming more widely available for use in land management and conservation. We use a logistic regression modelling approach to investigate the utility of these data for modelling. The relationship between the distribution of 137 British ground beetles species and land cover was investigated using data from 1687 10 kin national grid squares. Land cover data were simplified using ordination and the axes used as predictors in logistic regression with presence absence data for individual beetle species as response variables. Significant regression models were generated for all species with first and second axis scores. The amounts of variation explained by models were generally low| but predictions derived from models generally matched the known distributions of the species in Britain. Species with coastal preferences were poorly modelled and predicted to occur throughout lowland Britain whilst a number of species occurring in southern Britain were predicted to occur into Scotland. A validation exercise comparing model predictions with new data from a survey of 59 10 km(2) produced mixed results with the distribution of grassland species being better predicted than riverine species. Jackknifing was used to assess the robustness of models for four species which differed in their apparent responses to the land cover variables. Methods for improving the predictive power of these models and their potential for use in assessing the impact of global climate change are discussed. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2006,2004,4,4,Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter,Jupiter's atmosphere| as observed in the 1979 Voyager space craft images| is characterized by 12 zonal jet streams and about 80 vortices| the largest of which are the Great Red Spot and three White Ovals that had formed(1) in the 1930s. The Great Red Spot has been observed(2) continuously since 1665 and| given the dynamical similarities between the Great Red Spot and the White Ovals| the disappearance(3|4) of two White Ovals in 1997-2000 was unexpected. Their longevity and sudden demise has been explained(5) however| by the trapping of anticyclonic vortices in the troughs of Rossby waves| forcing them to merge. Here I propose that the disappearance of the White Ovals was not an isolated event| but part of a recurring climate cycle which will cause most of Jupiter's vortices to disappear within the next decade. In my numerical simulations| the loss of the vortices results in a global temperature change of about 10 K| which destabilizes the atmosphere and thereby leads to the formation of new vortices. After formation| the large vortices are eroded by turbulence over a time of similar to60 years-consistent with observations of the White Ovals-until they disappear and the cycle begins again. 6414,2004,2,4,Probability distributions| vulnerability and sensitivity in Fagus crenata forests following predicted climate changes in Japan,Question: How much is the probability distribution of Fagus crenata forests predicted to change under a climate change scenario by the 2090s| and what are the potential impacts on these forests? What are the main factors inducing such changes? Location: The major islands of Japan. Methods: A predictive distribution model was developed with four climatic factors (summer precipitation| PRS; winter precipitation| PRW; minimum temperature of the coldest month| TMC; and warmth index| WI) and five non-climatic factors (topography| surface geology| soil| slope aspect and inclination). A climate change scenario was applied to the model. Results: Areas with high probability (>0.5) were predicted to decrease by 91%| retreating from the southwest| shrinking in central regions| and expanding northeastwards beyond their current northern limits. A vulnerability index (the reciprocal of the predicted probability) suggests that Kyushu| Shikoku| the Pacific Ocean side of Honshu and southwest Hokkaido will have high numbers of many vulnerable F. crenata forests. The forests with high negative sensitivity indices (the difference between simulated probabilities of occurrence under current and predicted climates) mainly occur in southwest Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan side of northern Honshu. Conclusion: F. crenata forest distributions may retreat from some islands due to a high WI. The predicted northeastward shift in northern Hokkaido is associated with increased TMC and PRS. High vulnerability and negative sensitivity of the forests in southern Hokkaido are due to increased WI. 2013,2004,3,4,Projecting large-scale area changes in land use and land cover for terrestrial carbon analyses,One of the largest changes in US forest type areas over the last half-century has involved pine types in the South. The area of planted pine has increased more than 10-fold since 1950| mostly on private lands. Private landowners have responded to market incentives and government programs| including subsidized afforestation on marginal agricultural land. Timber harvest is a crucial disturbance affecting planted pine area| as other forest types are converted to planted pine after harvest. Conversely| however| many harvested pine plantations revert to other forest types| mainly due to passive regeneration behavior on nonindustrial private timberlands. We model land use and land cover changes as a basis for projecting future changes in planted pine area| to aid policy analysts concerned with mitigation activities for global climate change. Projections are prepared in two stages. Projected land use changes include deforestation due to pressures to develop rural land as the human population expands| which is a larger area than that converted from other rural lands (e.g.| agriculture) to forestry. In the second stage| transitions among forest types are projected on land allocated to forestry. We consider reforestation| influences of timber harvest| and natural succession and disturbance processes. Baseline projections indicate a net increase of about 5.6 million ha in planted pine area in the South over the next 50 years| with a notable increase in sequestered carbon. Additional opportunities to expand pine plantation area warrant study of landowner behavior to aid in designing more effective incentives for inducing land use and land cover changes to help mitigate climate change and attain other goals. 6584,2004,3,4,Prospects for utilisation of solar driven ejector-absorption cooling system in Turkey,Solar assisted refrigeration appears to be a promising alternative to the conventional electrical driven units. The main advantages of solar assisted refrigeration systems concern the reduction of peak loads for electricity utilities| the use of zero ozone depletion impact refrigerants| the decreased primary energy consumption and decreased global warming impact. The main focus of this study is to investigate usage possibility of ejector-absorption cooling system (EACS) in Turkey. This study determines whether or not required heat for generator of EACS can be obtained from solar energy in Turkey. There are two important reasons for the utilisation of EACSs in Turkey. One of them is that the production and use of the CFCs and HCFCs will be phased out in a few years according to Montreal Protocol| adopted in 1987. The other is that Turkey has high solar energy potential because of its location in the northern hemisphere with latitudes 3642 degreesN and longitudes 26-45 degreesE and the yearly average solar radiation is 3.6 kW h/m(2) day| and the total yearly radiation period is similar to2610 h. For analysis| 17 cities were selected in different regions of Turkey in which the radiation data and sunshine duration information have been collected since 2000. By using the meteorological data| it was aimed that required optimum collector surface area for maximum coefficient of performance (COPmax) conditions of EACSs operated with aqua-ammonia was defined. In addition| required minimum energy for auxiliary heater was calculated so that the system can be used throughout the year. It was found that the heat gain factor (HGF) varies in the range from 0.5 to 2.68 for the all the seasons in the selected cities. The maximum HGF of about 2.68 was obtained for Van in July. This study shows that there is a great potential for utilisation of solar cooling system for domestic heating/cooling applications in Turkey. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6478,2004,5,4,Provincialism associated with the Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum: temporal constraint,Sudden global warming similar to 55 Ma is associated with remarkable biotic events among both terrestrial and marine organisms. The marine microplankton were especially affected| with a rapid diversification among tropical planktonic foraminifera| a global acme of the dinoflagellate Apectodinium complex| and sudden changes in abundance patterns among the calcareous nannoplankton. Additionally| and in contrast with the former two groups| the latter group showed marked provincialism| with the distinctive Rhomboaster spp.-Discoaster araneus association (RD) restricted to a broadly crescent-shaped area extending through the Tethys seaway and the North and South Atlantic Oceans. We show here that this geographically restricted association was also temporally restricted. The stratigraphic occurrence of the Rhomboaster spp.-D. araneus association is correlative with the earliest Eocene Carbon Isotope Excursion. The relative abundance of this association is highest in the interval of minimum delta(13)C values| and sharply decreases as the delta(13)C increases toward preexcursion values. We propose that the Rhomboaster spp.-D. araneus association constitutes a stratigraphic proxy for the Carbon Isotope Excursion and represents an unique response to the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)| with a temporal span on the order of 175 kyr. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6441,2004,3,2,Qualitative assessment of methane emission inventory from municipal solid waste disposal sites: a case study,In developing countries like India| urban solid waste (SW) generation is increasing enormously and most of the SWs are disposed off by land filling in low-lying areas| resulting into generation of large quantities of biogas. Methane| the major constituent gas is known to cause global warming due to green house gas (GHG) effect. There is a need to study the ever-increasing contribution of SW to the global GHG effect. To assess the impacts| estimation of GHG emission is must and to avoid misguidance by these emission-data| qualitative assessment of the estimated GHG is a must. In this paper| methane emission is estimated for a particular landfill site| using default methodology and modified triangular methodology. Total methane generation is same for both theoretical methodologies| but the modified triangular method has an upper hand as it provides a time-dependent emission profile that reflects the true pattern of the degradation process. To check the quality of calculated emission-data| extensive sampling is carried out for different seasons in a year. Field results show a different trend as compared to theoretical results| this compels for logical thinking. Each methane emission-data is backed up by the uncertainty associated with it| this further strengthens the quality check of these data. Uncertainty calculation is done using Monte Carlo simulation technique| recommended in IPCC Guideline. In the due course of qualitative assessment of methane emission-data| many site-specific sensitive parameters are discovered and are briefly discussed in this paper. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1969,2004,2,4,Quantifying the water vapour feedback associated with post-Pinatubo global cooling,There is an ongoing important debate about the role of water vapour in climate change. Predictions of future climate change depend strongly on the magnitude of the water vapour feedback and until now models have almost exclusively been relied upon to quantify this feedback. In this work we employ observations of water vapour changes| together with detailed radiative calculations to estimate the water vapour feedback for the case of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We then compare our observed estimate with that calculated from a relatively large ensemble of simulations from a complex coupled climate model. We calculate an observed water vapour feedback parameter of -1.6 Wm(-2) K-1| with uncertainty placing the feedback parameter between -0.9 to -2.5 Wm(-2) K-1. The uncertain is principally from natural climate variations that contaminate the volcanic cooling. The observed estimates are consistent with that found in the climate model| with the ensemble average model feedback parameter being -2.0 Wm(-2) K-1| with a 5-95% range of -0.4 to -3.6 Wm(-2) K-1 (as in the case of the observations| the spread is due to an inability to separate the forced response from natural variability). However| in both the upper troposphere and Southern Hemisphere the observed model water vapour response differs markedly from the observations. The observed range represents a 40%-400% increase in the magnitude of surface temperature change when compared to a fixed water vapour response and is in good agreement with values found in other studies. Variability| both in the observed value and in the climate model's feedback parameter| between different ensemble members| suggests that the long-term water vapour feedback associated with global climate change could still be a factor of 2 or 3 different than the mean observed value found here and the model water vapour feedback could be quite different from this value; although a small water vapour feedback appears unlikely. We also discuss where in the atmosphere water vapour changes have their largest effect on surface climate. 6443,2004,2,4,Range expansion of raccoons in the Canadian prairies: review of hypotheses,The raccoon (Procyon lotor) has greatly expanded its range in the Canadian prairies during the 1900s. Four non-exclusive explanations may explain this range expansion: introductions| mesopredator release| availability and suitability of winter denning sites| and food availability. No introductions of raccoons were documented for the prairies| suggesting that range expansion was not directly caused by humans. The suggestion that raccoons moved north because of "mesopredator release" appears implausible because| even where larger predators such as bobcats (Lynx rufus) and coyotes (Canis latrans) exist| raccoons experience low predation rates and also because raccoons have expanded their range into treeless areas where coyotes are abundant. The third hypothesis| suggesting that availability of winter denning sites limits raccoon distribution| also receives little support| mostly because of the raccoon's flexibility in using a variety of natural and anthropogenic structures for denning. The last hypothesis| the idea that raccoon range expansion has followed an increase in availability of food| appears most plausible. The effects of global warming| which affects not only the availability and diversity of foods but also the duration of the growing season (and thus temporal availability of food)| probably helped raccoons colonize new areas. 6376,2004,2,4,Ratcheting down the coral reefs,Coral reefs are continuing to deteriorate around the world| despite millions of dollars' worth of government effort per year| the commitment of more than 450 nongovernmental organizations| and a long list of successful accomplishments. Researchers and managers must become more aware of positive feedback| including the self-reinforcing ecological| technological| economic| cultural and conceptual processes that accelerate the degradation of coral reefs. Much of the research on coral reef damage has focused on its proximal causes (e.g.| global warming| increased atmospheric carbon dioxide| overfishing| pollution| sedimentation| and disease) rather than its ultimate causes| the increasing human population and associated economic demands. To stop the deterioration of coral reef ecosystems| management must be proactive| terminating the self-reinforcing processes of coral reef degradation rather than perpetually restoring reefs or resource stocks. This can be accomplished only by clarifying the entire economic picture to instill more responsible behavior in the public. 6524,2004,3,2,Recent developments in tube hydroforming technology,Tube hydroforming is a process for manufacturing highly rigid light-weight parts with complex cross sections by internal high-pressure and axial feeding or axial compressive loading. It offers some advantages when compared with the traditional manufacturing methods such as sheet stamping and welding| or casting. The essential advantages are: integration of parts| reduction in both component weight and manufacturing steps| high accuracy of shape and dimensions| etc. Tube hydroforming was developed as an innovative technology in Japan over 40 years ago. Initially| it was available for manufacturing small and simple parts and has been used mainly in both the bicycle industries and the piping industries to manufacture fittings. Recently| new computer technology offers advanced control technology in manufacturing large and complex parts| and also offers FE simulations as designing tools for manufacturing sound parts without failure| such as bursting| buckling or wrinkling. Tube hydroforming-refined by computer technology and increased in capacity-is widely regarded as a new technology for manufacturing light-weight parts. To meet strong demands for saving fossil fuels and reducing CO2 emissions which cause global warming| automobile industries have recently adopted tube hydroforming technology to reduce the total weight of the cars and cost of production. This paper reviews the recent developments of tube hydroforming and discusses the key points of this technology. 6635,2004,2,4,Recent spread of Dracophyllum scrub on subantarctic Campbell Island| New Zealand: climatic or anthropogenic origins?,Aim The vegetation of subantarctic Campbell Island consists mainly of lowland Dracophyllum scrub and upland tussock grassland and tundra. Soon after the island was discovered in 1810| occupation by sealers and whalers led to localized burning and cutting of scrub. Further burning and cutting took place as a result of sheep farming between 1894 and 1931. Since the earliest photographs and vegetation descriptions of the island in the late nineteenth century| scrub cover has expanded markedly. Also| since the 1960s| the island has become warmer and drier. The aim of this paper is to quantify scrub changes as depicted in photo-sequences from the island| and to establish if the spread of scrub is a result of the cessation of anthropogenic activities or a response to global warming. Location Campbell Island| an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52degrees33.7'S| 169degrees09'E). Methods Changes in scrub cover in the island were established through analysis of 33 photographic sequences in the island| the earliest photos dating back to 1888. Visual estimates were made of percentage woody cover in matching areas of repeat photographs| and of changes in scrub distribution with altitude and landscape type. Results Dracophyllum scrub was restricted at the time of the first photographs (1888) relative to its present extent| and earlier written observations suggest that there had been little change from the 1840s. Scrub cover has subsequently increased in most areas. Most of the spread occurred after the cessation of farming. Change has mostly consisted of a thickening and expansion of pre-existing scrub patches. There is no indication that the upper elevational limit of scrub has increased. Main conclusions Initial reduction of scrub was probably due to anthropogenic fire in the early nineteenth century| although it is possible that less favourable climates had also restricted its distribution. Failure of the scrub to regenerate significantly between 1840 and c. 1895 may also have been a consequence of generally cooler| wetter climates at this time. Rapid scrub expansion began between the end of farming and burning in 1931 and 1988 when the remaining feral sheep were removed. Sheep grazing in the absence of fire reduced competition| and encouraged regeneration and growth of woody scrub. Spread was probably assisted by a pronounced shift to warmer| drier climates in the second half of the twentieth century. Upper elevational limits of scrub have not increased| suggesting that factors other than summer temperature are controlling scrub line in this superoceanic environment. 1984,2004,5,4,Reconstructing the Pleistocene geography of the Aphelocoma jays (Corvidae),Understanding historical distributions of species and evolving lineages has been a topic of considerable interest| yet methods used to date have not provided detailed| quantitative distributional hypotheses. Here| we present a technique based on models of species' ecological niches and Pleistocene climate reconstructions that provides such hypotheses| providing the example of reconstructions for the Aphelocoma jays. We demonstrate in general a greater degree than expected of stability in jay species' distributional areas back through at least the most recent glaciation event| and that existing patterns of genetic differentiation may date to before the Late Pleistocene glaciations. More generally| the method offers the potential for reconstructing historical distributions of species or lineages| and providing a detailed geographic framework for addressing many biogeographic and systematic questions. 6648,2004,3,4,Recovery of perfluoroethane from chemical vapor deposition operations in the semiconductor industry,Perfluorocarbons| particularly perfluoroethane (C2F6)| are widely used in the semiconductor industry for plasma cleaning of chemical vapor deposition (CVD) chambers. Although the quantity Of C2F6 released into the atmosphere by these operations is relatively small| C2F6 is a very powerful greenhouse gas| and methods of reducing atmospheric emissions are being sought. One method is to use a selective membrane to concentrate the C2F6 so that the gas can be condensed on cooling and recovered as a liquid. In the past| similar membrane vapor separation processes used rubbery polymer membranes that permeate the vapor. However| perfluorocarbon vapors have unusually low permeabilities even in rubbery polymers| because of their large size and low solubility. Therefore| glassy polymeric composite membranes were developed to separate and recover C2F6 from CVD chamber exhaust gas. These membranes permeate oxygen and nitrogen| and retain the perfluorocarbon vapor. Membranes with nitrogen/C2F6 selectivities of up to several hundred were made from a number of polymers. A process using these membranes to recover 99% C2F6 from CVD exhaust gas was designed. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6374,2004,3,4,Redox window with minimum global warming potential contribution from rice soils,Eight different rice (Oryza sativa L.) soils were incubated using a microcosm technique to study CO2| CH4| and N2O contribution to global warming potential (GWP) at different redox potential (ER) conditions. Cumulative GWP from these three greenhouse gases reached a minimum at a redox "window" of +180 to -150 mV. Within the redox window| CO2 production accounted for 86% of the cumulative GWP| because both N2O and CH4 production were low. When EH was higher than +180 mV| both CO2 and N2O production made a significant contribution to the cumulative GWP| whereas CH4 production was a dominant contributor when EH was lower than -150 mV. During the incubation| each soil exhibited a unique signature of developing such an optimum redox window with a minimum GWP. Multiple regressions showed that initial soil organic matter (OM) and S content might have a significant control (P = 0.02) on the time required for the soils to reach the redox window when the incubation started from aerobic conditions. The results of this integrated study on productions of the three greenhouse gases provide a theoretical base for abating soil GWP loading into the atmosphere by regulating soil EH conditions. 6544,2004,3,3,Reduced environmental impact by lowered cruise altitude for liquid hydrogen-fuelled aircraft,Environmental concerns. as well as the expected depletion of fossil fuel resources| have become the driving forces for research and development towards the introduction Of hydrogen energy into air traffic. The present paper is a summary of a study that was carried out within the European sponsored project CRYOPLANE. co-ordinated by Airbus Germany. The objectives of this study are to re-optimise and compare two equivalent medium-range aircraft - one kerosene-fuelled and one LH2-fuelled - for reduced cruise altitude. from an environmental point of view. By lowering the cruise altitude| the contribution to global warming might be reduced at the expense of increased fuel consumption and pollutant emissions. In order to assess the global impact| in terms of global warming| from the emissions discharged oil a certain mission| a simple parametric model is employed. The results suggest that introduction of cryoplanes will improve the environmental performance| particularly in terms of global warming Provided that an increase in fuel consumption in the order of 10% and all increase in TOM of a few percent are accepted| the results suggest that cryoplanes should cruise at an altitude of about 2-3 km below where conventional aircraft cruise today in order to considerably reduce the environmental impact. (C) 2004 Swedish Defence Research Auency. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. 6429,2004,3,4,Reduction of global warming potential contribution from a rice field by irrigation| organic matter| and fertilizer management,The major objective of this study is to find a feasible management practice to mitigate the cumulative global warming potential (GWP) from CH4 and N2O emission in an irrigated rice field. Nonflooding (but wet) conditions reduced CH4 emission by 79 and 71% from the fields with and without organic matter (OM) addition| respectively. This was mainly due to the desirable soil redox status in the nonflooded fields with less CH4 production and more CH4 oxidation when CH4 diffused up the soil profile. Increase in N2O emission from the nonflooded fields offset part of the reduction in CH4 emission| especially when OM was not added. Thus the nonflooding treatment reduced the cumulative GWP by 72% in the OM-added field but only 46% in the field without OM addition. Under flooding conditions| no OM addition reduced CH4 emission by 57%| but rice yield was decreased by 16% in comparison with the OM-added fields. The best management practice proposed from this study is to keep the fields nonflooded but wet with OM addition| which largely reduced the GWP from the fields with no decrease in rice yield. 6389,2004,3,3,Reduction of PFC emissions to the environment through advances in CVD and etch processes,One the most focused environmental health and safety (EHS) goals for the semiconductor industry has been to reduce perfluorocompound (PFC) emissions because of their high global warming potentials and long residence times in the atmosphere. During the last decade| significant achievements have been reached in attaining this goal. Chemical vapor deposition (CVD) chamber cleaning and plasma etch are two processes that use PFCs in which studies have been conducted to reduce emissions. Two successful strategies for reducing PFC emissions and enhancing process performance are described. 6388,2004,3,4,Reduction of semiconductor process emissions by reactive gas optimization,Tailoring the chemical environment in plasmas by addition of reactive gases to affect byproduct formation has been demonstrated to reduce perfluorocompound (PFC) emissions. Perfluorocompound emissions from dielectric etch processes are reduced by oxygen addition| which reduces polymerization and increases etch rates| primarily by affecting the fluorine or carbon in the plasma| and secondarily| by affecting resist erosion. Oxygen or water vapor introduced upstream of plasma abatement devices reduces PFC reformation by preferentially combining with carbon and fluorine-containing radicals to form thermodynamically favorable byproducts that are non- or low-global warming. Introducing oxygen to low-k chemical vapor deposition (CVD) chamber clean processes also reduces PFC emissions| primarily by reducing CF4 by forming thermodynamically stable CO and CO2. Analogously| adjusting the fuel or the oxidizer flow in fuel-fired abatement devices provides a higher flame temperature where thermal cracking of higher molecular weight low-k CVD organosilicon precursors can more readily occur| allowing the carbon-rich precursors to more completely oxidize. 6332,2004,4,3,Regional climate simulation for Korea using dynamic downscaling and statistical adjustment,Recently the regional impact assessment due to global warming is one of the urgent tasks to every country in the world| under the circumstances of increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This assessment must include not only meteorological factors| such as surface air temperature and precipitation| etc.| but also the response of the local ecosystem. Based on a previous study| for example| it has been known that Phyllostachys' habitation| which is one of the bamboo species popular in Korea| is quite sensitive to temperature change| in particular during the winter season. Thus| adequate climate information is essential to derive a solid conclusion on the regional impact assessment for future climate change. In this study| we adopted a dynamical downscaling technique to get regional future climate information| with the regional climate model (MM5| Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model) from the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology Models and Data Group's Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) ECAHM4| and HOPE-G (ECHO-G) simulation for future climate| based on future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2. Through this nesting process we got reasonable regional climate change information. However| we found a couple of systematic differences| such as a cold bias in the surface air temperature| simulated by MM5 compared to that by the AOGCM ECHO-G. This cold bias may cause to loose credibility on the future climate scenario to the impact assessment studies. Accordingly| we introduced a transfer function to correct the systematic bias of the dynamic model in the regional-scale| and to predict the regional climate from large-scale predictors. These transfer functions are obtained from the daily mean temperature of 17 surface observation stations in Korea for 10 years from 1992 to 2001| and 10-year simulation data obtained from regional climate model (RCM) for each mode of EOFA to correct the systematic bias of RCM data. With these transfer functions| we can correct the RMS error of the daily mean temperature in RCM as much as 47.6% in winter and 86.5% in summer. After dynamical downscaling and statistical adjustment| we may provide adequate climate change information for regional assessment studies. 6328,2004,2,4,Regional structure of global warming across China during the twentieth century,A Mann-Kendall trend test was carried out using high-resolution gridded data (0.5degrees- 0.5degrees) of time-series for temperature| obtained from the Climatic Research Unit and the Tyndall Center. By comparing episodes of temperature change across China in the Course of global warming. a regional temperature structure can be outlined: The temperature-mutation time Occurs south of 35degrees N| and earlier with decreasing latitude| in the 1920s-1940s warming episode| but occurs north of 35degrees N| and earlier with increasing latitude| in warming since the 1970s. Temperature Change| occurred almost simultaneously in eastern China| but the temperature-mutation times are widely different in western China as a result of the strong influence of the Tibetan Plateau. The Tibetan Plateau warmed much earlier in the west and northwest than in the southwest. Regional temperature change is comprehensively influenced by latitude and by landscape formations| as well as by other natural causes and human activities. Latitudinal location and landforms are major factors that influenced the temperature structure in China during the 20th century. 6578,2004,4,2,Relation between the global-warming parameter and the heat balance on the earth's surface at increased contents of carbon dioxide,The global-warming parameter and change in the surface heat balance were studied on the basis of 18 combined atmosphere-ocean general circulation models participating in the CMIP international program. In models with a global-warming parameter higher (smaller) than the value averaged over all the models (1.69 K)| global warming is generally accompanied by an increase (decrease) in the surface shortwave radiative balance. For increased carbon dioxide| the dependence of the global-warming parameter on the geographical distribution of incoming shortwave radiation and heat flux correction in modeling the present-day climate is discussed. Based on this dependence| the expected value of the global-warming parameter at increased carbon dioxide is estimated for the actual climate system. 6410,2004,5,4,Relationship between Antarctic sea ice and southwest African climate during the late Quaternary,Here we compare late Quaternary southwest African climate records from the west coast of southern Africa (published winter rainfall and trade wind intensity records from a core off the coast of Namibia) to records of Antarctic sea-ice extent. This comparison reveals coherent changes between Antarctic sea-ice extent and the southwest African winter rain region since 45 k.y. B.P.| with enhanced winter rainfall and trade-wind vigor during periods of increased sea-ice presence. We propose an oceanic and atmospheric coupling between Antarctic sea ice and the winter rainfall zone of southwest Africa that may lead to increased desertification in the region if global warming persists. 6487,2004,2,4,Relationships between vegetation patterns and periglacial landforms in northwestern Svalbard,We studied the small-scale vegetation pattern in the high Arctic at Ny Angstromlesund to assess if the plant distribution was related to periglacial landforms. The whole area has been deglaciated for millennia but only a modest part of the area was covered by mature vegetation. The plant cover varied considerably in relation to ground patterning originated by periglacial processes| especially frost heave| frost creep| gelifluction and ice segregation| giving rise to a mosaic of microhabitats sharply differing from each other as regards physical properties and microclimate. The distributional patterns of vascular plants| lichens and bryophytes were primarily affected by complex responses to substrate texture| soil moisture content and substrate disturbance. Since global warming will probably affect both periglacial processes and plant responses to altered habitat conditions| we concluded that long-term monitoring of relationships between landforms and vegetation represents a suitable tool for assessing the impact of global change on arctic regions. 1991,2004,5,4,Release of methane from a volcanic basin as a mechanism for initial Eocene global warming,A 200|000-yr interval of extreme global warming marked the start of the Eocene epoch about 55 million years ago. Negative carbon-and oxygen-isotope excursions in marine and terrestrial sediments show that this event was linked to a massive and rapid (similar to10|000 yr) input of isotopically depleted carbon(1|2). It has been suggested previously that extensive melting of gas hydrates buried in marine sediments may represent the carbon source(3|4) and has caused the global climate change. Large-scale hydrate melting| however| requires a hitherto unknown triggering mechanism. Here we present evidence for the presence of thousands of hydrothermal vent complexes identified on seismic reflection profiles from the Voring and More basins in the Norwegian Sea. We propose that intrusion of voluminous mantle-derived melts in carbon-rich sedimentary strata in the northeast Atlantic may have caused an explosive release of methane-transported to the ocean or atmosphere through the vent complexes-close to the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary. Similar volcanic and metamorphic processes may explain climate events associated with other large igneous provinces such as the Siberian Traps (similar to250 million years ago) and the Karoo Igneous Province (similar to183 million years ago). 6386,2004,3,3,Renewable energy and market-based approaches to greenhouse gas reduction - opportunity or obstacle?,Market-based approaches to greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction| such as emissions trading| are increasingly favored as an alternative to 'command and control' legislation. With a focus on the Australian renewable energy (RE) industry and policy situation| this paper proposes that the development of RE technologies as a response to global warming is environmentally preferable and in the long-term economic interest of Australia. However| the Australian RE sector is disadvantaged by energy market distortions and lack of policy and program support. Under a market-based approach to GHG reduction complimentary policies will be needed to enable the uptake of RE technologies. The RE sector can also develop certain capabilities to help further the uptake of RE technologies in a market-based environment. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6412,2004,3,4,Renewable energy for a clean and sustainable future,This article discusses the growing need of energy in both developed and developing countries| and the acute population growth| which will exceed 10 billion by the year 2050. How can a world of 10 billion people be provided with adequate supplies of energy| cleanly| safely and substantially? There is a growing consensus that renewable energy sources will be a very important part of the answer. The growing interest in renewables has been prompted| in part| by increasing concern over the pollution| resource depletion and possible climate change implications of our continuing use of conventional fossil and nuclear fuels. Recent technological developments have also improved the cost-effectiveness of many of the renewables| making their economic prospects look increasingly attractive. It describes the achievement and progress made in hydropower| biomass conversion| geothermal| solar thermal technology| wind energy conversion| and the increasing usage of photovoltaics. It is evident that global warming is setting in and is going to change the climate| as well as the terrain of many countries| unless drastic measures are taken. The Kyoto meeting emphasized the importance of limiting CO2 emissions and to abide by some form of agreement to reduce emissions. The present study concludes that renewable energy penetration into the energy market is much faster than was expected in recent years and by 2030| 15-20% of our prime energy will be met by renewable energy. 6710,2004,2,4,Reproductive capacity of the grey pine aphid and allocation response of Scots pine seedlings across temperature gradients: a test of hypotheses predicting outcomes of global warming,The effects of the expected increase in growing season temperature on the performance of the aphid Schizolachnus pineti (Fabricius) (Homoptera: Lachnidae) and on the nutritional quality of its host plant (Pinus sylvestris L.) were studied under a daytime temperature range of 20-28 degreesC| with nighttime temperature that was either fixed at 12 degreesC or 8 degreesC below the daytime temperature. Fecundity had a curvilinear response| with an optimum at 24 or 26 degreesC| which is 4 to 6 degreesC above the local mean daytime temperatures. Longevity of nymphal stage was negatively and linearly correlated (r(2) = 0.967) with daytime temperature. Intrinsic rate of population increase (r(m)) and relative growth rate were significantly higher at 26 degreesC than at 20 degreesC. Fecundity and r(m) were negatively correlated with total phenolic concentration in needles. Temperature affected concentrations of some individual resin acids in needles and stems| while concentrations of monoterpenes| total phenolics| starch| and total nitrogen in needles were not affected by temperature. Seedlings grown at 24 degreesC achieved the greatest biomass. Results support the protein competition hypothesis| which predicts no changes in the concentration of plant phenolics with small temperature increases. However| at 26 degreesC the low starch/nitrogen ratio and low total phenolic concentration may partly explain increased fecundity of aphids. 1974,2004,2,4,Response of different decomposer communities to the manipulation of moisture availability: potential effects of changing precipitation patterns,The potential impacts of changes in precipitation patterns associated with global climate change on the relationship between soil community diversity and litter decomposition were investigated. For a period of ca. 5 months| two decomposer communities in litterbags (1000 and 45 mum mesh size) containing spruce litter were subjected to two irrigation treatments: constant and fluctuating (drying/rewetting) moisture conditions. The latter were expected to induce moisture stress on the decomposer communities. The two mesh sizes were used to exclude different faunal components from the decomposer communities. The 1000 mum mesh excluded only the macrofauna| whereas the 45 mum mesh excluded both the macro- and mesofauna. In the short-term perspective of the present study| mesofauna abundance showed no response to imposed fluctuating moisture conditions. Irrespective of the presence of mesofauna| mass loss| microbial biomass and the control mechanisms| regulating carbon mineralization appeared unaffected by fluctuating moisture conditions. The reduction in the functional/structural diversity of the decomposer communities in the 45 mum litterbags resulted in strongly increased Nematoda abundance but it did not alter the response of Nematoda to fluctuating moisture conditions. Processes in the nitrogen (N)-cycle and mass loss were sensitive indicators of changes in the structural and functional complexity of decomposer communities. However| a negative effect of fluctuating moisture conditions on extractable N was coupled to the presence of mesofauna. Extremes in rainfall patterns| generated by climate change| may have a negative impact on the availability of nutrients| particularly N| for plants. This effect could be amplified by an additional impoverishment in the structural and functional complexity of the respective decomposer communities. 6365,2004,2,4,Response of global warming on regional climate change over Korea: An experiment with the MM5 model,This study is to investigate changes in regional surface climate arising from global warming with MM5 downscaling simulation for the period 1971-2100. The main focus is on the drought conditions over Korea. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is utilized as a measure of drought severity. The important findings show the increase of surface air temperature by 6degreesC and precipitation by 25% over Korea at the end of the 21st century. The increasing trend of temperature is associated with an increasing trend of evapotranspiration and precipitation. Climatological precipitation amount appropriate for existing conditions is larger than the precipitation amounts. Hence| it actually produces deficit in precipitation. This exhibits a negative PDSI. As a result droughts are expected to be severe and frequent. Better resolved topography in MM5 induces large changes in local precipitation compared with temperature. Consequently peaks of negative PDSI anomalies appear over southern parts of Korea| where a large reduction in precipitation is noticed in addition to warming. 6498,2004,2,4,Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming,[1] We examine six different coupled climate model simulations to determine the ocean biological response to climate warming between the beginning of the industrial revolution and 2050. We use vertical velocity| maximum winter mixed layer depth| and sea ice cover to define six biomes. Climate warming leads to a contraction of the highly productive marginal sea ice biome by 42% in the Northern Hemisphere and 17% in the Southern Hemisphere| and leads to an expansion of the low productivity permanently stratified subtropical gyre biome by 4.0% in the Northern Hemisphere and 9.4% in the Southern Hemisphere. In between these| the subpolar gyre biome expands by 16% in the Northern Hemisphere and 7% in the Southern Hemisphere| and the seasonally stratified subtropical gyre contracts by 11% in both hemispheres. The low-latitude ( mostly coastal) upwelling biome area changes only modestly. Vertical stratification increases| which would be expected to decrease nutrient supply everywhere| but increase the growing season length in high latitudes. We use satellite ocean color and climatological observations to develop an empirical model for predicting chlorophyll from the physical properties of the global warming simulations. Four features stand out in the response to global warming: ( 1) a drop in chlorophyll in the North Pacific due primarily to retreat of the marginal sea ice biome| ( 2) a tendency toward an increase in chlorophyll in the North Atlantic due to a complex combination of factors| ( 3) an increase in chlorophyll in the Southern Ocean due primarily to the retreat of and changes at the northern boundary of the marginal sea ice zone| and ( 4) a tendency toward a decrease in chlorophyll adjacent to the Antarctic continent due primarily to freshening within the marginal sea ice zone. We use three different primary production algorithms to estimate the response of primary production to climate warming based on our estimated chlorophyll concentrations. The three algorithms give a global increase in primary production of 0.7% at the low end to 8.1% at the high end| with very large regional differences. The main cause of both the response to warming and the variation between algorithms is the temperature sensitivity of the primary production algorithms. We also show results for the period between the industrial revolution and 2050 and 2090. 6432,2004,2,4,Response of plant pathogens and herbivores to a warming experiment,Pathogens and herbivores can severely reduce host fitness| potentially leading to altered succession rates and changes in plant community composition. Thus| to predict vegetation dynamics under climate change| it is necessary to understand how plant pathogens and herbivores will respond. Pathogens and herbivores are predicted to increase under climate warming because the amount of time available for growth and reproduction will increase. To test this prediction| we used a warming experiment in which heaters were suspended over a natural montane meadow for 12 years. In the summer of 2002| we quantified damage by all the observable (aboveground) pathogens and herbivores on six of the most common plant species (Artemisia tridentata| Helianthella quinquenervis| Erigeron speciosus| Potentilla gracilis| Potentilla hippiana| and Lathyrus leucanthus). We found that plants in the earlier melting plots generally had the most damage and were attacked by a larger number of species| which is consistent with predictions. However| although the overall trend was an increase in damage with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt| some pathogens and herbivores performed better in cooler or later melting plots. The idiosyncratic response of each species to environmental conditions suggests that there are likely to be changes in community composition as the planet warms. 6390,2004,2,3,Response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to increased atmospheric CO(2) in a coupled model,Changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) due to increased CO(2) are important in future climate regimes. Using a coupled climate model| the Parallel Climate Model (PCM)| regional responses of the THC in the North Atlantic to increased CO(2) and the underlying physical processes are studied here. The Atlantic THC shows a 20-yr cycle in the control run| qualitatively agreeing with other modeling results. Compared with the control run| the simulated maximum of the Atlantic THC weakens by about 5 Sv (1 Svequivalent to10(6) m(3) s(-1)) or 14% in an ensemble of transient experiments with a 1% CO(2) increase per year at the time of CO(2) doubling. The weakening of the THC is accompanied by reduced poleward heat transport in the midlatitude North Atlantic. Analyses show that oceanic deep convective activity strengthens significantly in the Greenland-Iceland-Norway (GIN) Seas owing to a saltier (denser) upper ocean| but weakens in the Labrador Sea due to a fresher (lighter) upper ocean and in the south of the Denmark Strait region (SDSR) because of surface warming. The saltiness of the GIN Seas are mainly caused by an increased salty North Atlantic inflow| and reduced sea ice volume fluxes from the Arctic into this region. The warmer SDSR is induced by a reduced heat loss to the atmosphere| and a reduced sea ice flux into this region| resulting in less heat being used to melt ice. Thus| sea ice-related salinity effects appear to be more important in the GIN Seas| but sea ice-melt-related thermal effects seem to be more important in the SDSR region. On the other hand| the fresher Labrador Sea is mainly attributed to increased precipitation. These regional changes produce the overall weakening of the THC in the Labrador Sea and SDSR| and more vigorous ocean overturning in the GIN Seas. The northward heat transport south of 60degreesN is reduced with increased CO(2)| but increased north of 60degreesN due to the increased flow of North Atlantic water across this latitude. 6617,2004,2,4,Response of the overturning circulation to high-latitude fresh-water perturbations in the North Atlantic,Studies have suggested that sea-ice cover east and west of Greenland fluctuates out-of phase as a part of the Atlantic decadal climate variability| and greater changes are possible under global warming conditions. In this study| the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to the distribution of surface fresh-water flux is explored using a global isopycnal ocean model. An Arctic ice related fresh-water flux of 0.1 Sv entering the Nordic Seas is shown to reduce the maximum overturning by 1 to 2 Sv (10(6) m(3) s(-1)). A further decrease of 3 to 5 Sv in the MOC is observed when the fresh-water flux is shifted from the Fram Strait to the southern Baffin Bay area. Surprisingly| the salinity in much of the upper Nordic Seas actually increases when the Arctic fresh-water source is the strongest there| as a result of enhanced global overturning. It reflects the great influence of Labrador Sea convection on this model's MOC. By applying a weaker surface fresh-water transport perturbation (0.02 Sv) on the Baffin Bay area and therefore perturbing the Labrador Sea Water (LSW) formation| we have also investigated the interaction between the overflows across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge and the LSW and find that| with the same surface forcing conditions in the Nordic Seas| volume transport of the overflows weakens when the LSW formation intensifies. 1947,2004,5,3,Responses of foraminiferal isotopic variations at ODP Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea to orbital forcing,The foraminiferal delta(18)O and delta(13)C records for the past 5 Ma at ODP Site 1143 reveal the linear responses of the Plio-Pleistocene climatic changes in the southern South China Sea to orbital forcing at the obliquity and precession bands. The phase of the 5180 variations with the orbital forcing is opposite to that of the delta(13)C| which may be caused by the frequent El Nino events from the equatorial Pacific. The amplification of the Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet at similar to3.3 Ma probably affected the development of the 100-ka climatic cycles. Its further spreading may spur the 100-ka climatic cycle to become the dominant cycle in the late Pleistocene. The "Mid-Pleistocene Transition" event has localized influence on the isotopic variations in the southern South China Sea. The foraminiferal delta(13)C records for the past 5 Ma at Site 1143 are highly coherent with the orbital forcing at the long eccentricity band| and lead the delta(18)O records at the shorter eccentricity band| highlighting the importance of the carbon cycle in the global climate change. 6457,2004,4,4,Retrieval of stratospheric O-3 and NO2 profiles from Odin Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System (OSIRIS) limb-scattered sunlight measurements,[1] Scientific studies of the major environmental questions of global warming and ozone depletion require global data sets of atmospheric constituents with relevant temporal and spatial resolution. In this paper| global number density profiles of O-3 and NO2 are retrieved from Odin Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System (Odin/OSIRIS) limb-scattered sunlight measurements| using the maximum a posteriori estimator. Differential optical absorption spectroscopy is applied to OSIRIS radiances as an intermediate step| using the wavelength windows 571 - 617 nm for O-3 and 435 - 451 nm for NO2. The method is computationally efficient for processing OSIRIS data on an operational basis. Results show that a 2 - 3 km height resolution is generally achievable between about 12 km and 45 km for O-3 with an estimated accuracy of 13% at the peak and between about 15 km and 40 km for NO2 with an estimated accuracy of 10% at the peak. First validations of the retrieved data indicate a good agreement both with other retrieval techniques applied to OSIRIS measurements and with the results of other instruments. Once the validation has reached a confident level| the retrieved data will be used to study important stratospheric processes relevant to global environmental problems. The unique NO2 data set will be of particular interest for studies of nitrogen chemistry in the middle atmosphere. 6587,2004,4,4,Review of decadal/interdecadal climate variation studies in China,Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper| an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China| global warming and interdecadal temperature variability| the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China| the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon| the interdecadal mode of SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact| and abrupt change feature of the climate.
6500,2004,2,4,Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming,The impact of projected global warming on crop yields has been evaluated by indirect methods using simulation models. Direct studies on the effects of observed climate change on crop growth and yield could provide more accurate information for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. We analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature by using data from irrigated field experiments conducted at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1992 to 2003. Here we report that annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.35degreesC and 1.13degreesC| respectively| for the period 1979-2003 and a close linkage between rice grain yield and mean minimum temperature during the dry cropping season (January to April). Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1degreesC increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season| whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming. 2009,2004,2,2,Risk and damage of southern pine beetle outbreaks under global climate change,This study| using the panel data modeling approach| investigates the relationships between climatic variables and southern pine beetle (SPB) (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann) infestations and assesses the impact of global climate change on SPB infestation risk and damage. The panel data model alleviates possible collinearity among climatic variables| accounts for the effect of omitted or unobserved variables| and incorporates natural and human adaptation| thus representing a more robust approach to analyzing climate change impacts. SPB outbreaks in Louisiana and Texas appeared to move together; infestations in Alabama| Arkansas| Georgia| Florida| Mississippi| South Carolina| North Carolina| and Tennessee were highly correlated; and Virginia demonstrated its unique temporal pattern of SPB outbreaks. Salvage harvest was found to be helpful in lessening future infestation risk. Warmer winters and springs would positively contribute to SPB outbreaks with spring temperature showing a more severe and persistent impact than winter temperature; increases in fall temperature would ease SPB outbreaks; and summer temperature would have a mixed impact on SPB infestations. Compared to temperature| precipitation would have a much smaller impact on SPB infestations. While increases in the previous winter| spring| and fall precipitation would enhance SPB outbreak risk in the current year| a wetter summer would reduce infestations 3 years later. Global climate change induced by doubling atmospheric CO2 concentration would intensify SPB infestation risk by 2.5-5 times. If the changes in the area and productivity of southern pine forests due to climate change are accounted for| SPB would cause even more severe damage| 4-7.5 times higher than the current value of trees killed annually. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6594,2004,2,4,Risk assessment of Bluetongue Disease incursion into Germany using geographic information system (GIS),Using a geographic information system (GIS)| by analysis of the relationship between the spatial distribution of cattle density and the risk factors temperature| altitude and rainfall| we defined geographical habitats enabling optimal development and competence of Culicoides spp. to transmit Bluetongue-Virus (BTV). Risk zones (low| high| highest risk) were identified mainly in Baden-Wurttemberg| Hessen and Rheinland-Pfalz. If persistently infected ruminants are imported into these zones in summer (June to August mainly)| based on the current climatic conditions| BTD outbreaks are considered a real possibility. Overwintering of the virus seems unlikely. However| global warming will lead to a steady increase of the size of the risk zones. In addition|the possibility of primary outbreaks increases. The reason for this is not only the expected northern shift of Culicoides imicola| but in addition an increasing vector competence of domestic Culicoides species. We therefore recommend the storage of vaccines as well as conducting ecological studies analysing the presence of Culicoides vectors. Using the data from these studies| it will be possible to produce updated quantitative risk assessment via GIS.
2056,2004,4,4,RNA/DNA ratios as indicators of metabolic activity in four species of Caribbean reef-building corals,Global climate change and the anthropogenic degradation of tropical reef environments can have deleterious consequences for the health of reef-building corals. Bioindicators of coral status aid in efforts to identify those species and populations that are most threatened| which can help focus conservation efforts. The RNA/DNA ratio is an index of protein synthetic capacity and is expected to reflect an organism's investment in growth. Here| we measured a decrease in the RNA/DNA ratio in both the symbiotic anemone Aiptasia pallida exposed to light-deprivation in the laboratory| and in natural populations of the coral Porites astreoides along a depth gradient| suggesting that the RNA/DNA ratio may have depended upon metabolic activity. Also| RNA/DNA ratios in the coral Montastraea annularis were higher in the winter and spring (when higher growth rates may have been supported) than in summer| at an inshore and an offshore reef in the Florida Keys. Site-specific disparity in bleaching patterns at these 2 reefs may partly explain the differences in their RNA/DNA ratios. Finally| significant interspecific variation was observed in 3 co-occurring species of the genus Montastraea: M. annularis| M. cavernosa and M| faveolata| demonstrating the potential for variability in protein synthetic capacity even between closely related species. These results support the use of the RNA/DNA ratio as an indicator of metabolic activity in natural populations of corals. 6675,2004,2,4,Root production is determined by radiation flux in a temperate grassland community,Accurate knowledge of the response of root turnover to a changing climate is needed to predict growth and produce carbon cycle models. A soil warming system and shading were used to vary soil temperature and received radiation independently in a temperate grassland dominated by Holcus lanatus L. Minirhizotrons allowed root growth and turnover to be examined non-destructively. In two short-term (8 week) experiments| root responses to temperature were seasonally distinct. Root number increased when heating was applied during spring| but root death increased during autumnal heating. An experiment lasting 12 months demonstrated that any positive response to temperature was short-lived and that over a full growing season| soil warming led to a reduction in root number and mass due to increased root death during autumn and winter. Root respiration was also insensitive to soil temperature over much of the year. In contrast| root growth was strongly affected by incident radiation. Root biomass| length| birth rate| number and turnover were all reduced by shading. Photosynthesis in H. lanatus exhibited some acclimation to shading| but assimilation rates at growth irradiance were still lower in shaded plants. The negative effects of shading and soil warming on roots were additive. Comparison of root data with environmental measurements demonstrated a number of positive relationships with photosynthetically active radiation| but not with soil temperature. This was true both across the entire data set and within a shade treatment. These results demonstrate that root growth is unlikely to be directly affected by increased soil temperatures as a result of global warming| at least in temperate areas| and that predictions of net primary productivity should not be based on a positive root growth response to temperature. 6448,2004,4,4,Ruelle's linear response formula| ensemble adjoint schemes and Levy flights,A traditional subject in statistical physics is the linear response of a molecular dynamical system to changes in an external forcing agency| e.g. the Ohmic response of an electrical conductor to an applied electric field. For molecular systems the linear response matrices| such as the electrical conductivity| can be represented by Green-Kubo formulae as improper time-integrals of 2-time correlation functions in the system. Recently| Ruelle has extended the Green-Kubo formalism to describe the statistical| steady-state response of a|sufficiently chaotic' nonlinear dynamical system to changes in its parameters. This formalism potentially has a number of important applications. For instance| in studies of global warming one wants to calculate the response of climate-mean temperature to a change in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. In general| a climate sensitivity is defined as the linear response of a long-time average to changes in external forces. We show that Ruelle's linear response formula can be computed by an ensemble adjoint technique and that this algorithm is equivalent to a more standard ensemble adjoint method proposed by Lea| Allen and Haine to calculate climate sensitivities. In a numerical implementation for the 3-variable| chaotic Lorenz model it is shown that the two methods perform very similarly. However| because of a power-law tail in the histogram of adjoint gradients their sum over ensemble members becomes a Levy flight| and the central limit theorem breaks down. The law of large numbers still holds and the ensemble-average converges to the desired sensitivity| but only very slowly| as the number of samples is increased. We discuss the implications of this example more generally for ensemble adjoint techniques and for the important practical issue of calculating climate sensitivities. 6404,2004,3,4,Saccharification of cellulose from wastewater sludge and subsequent conversion to organic acids by corynebacteria,Wastewater sludge containing cellulose from a paper manufacturing facility was saccharized using Meicelase (cellulase from Trichoderma viride). As a result of process optimization| maximum saccharification was obtained at pH 4.0| 40 degreesC| and 0.1 % enzyme concentration. After neutralization of hydrolysis products by acid| a Corynebacterium glutamicum inoculum and cultivation medium were added to the solution. Lactic acid and succinic acid| as major metabolic products| were synthesized in this reaction under anaerobic conditions by bubbling of carbon dioxide gas. Lactic acid was identified to be of L-form| which is useful as a starting material for the manufacture of biodegradable polymers such as poly lactic acid. Both these organic acids can also be converted to a wide variety of organic products. This production of organic acids was thus accompanied by CO| fixation. Paper sludge saccharification and organic acid production were done in the same reactor to reduce the reaction time and simplify the overall process by using Celluzyme (cellulase from Humicola microorganism)| whose optimum activity is at around pH7. This study illustrates the use of biodegradable wastes in prevention of global warming. 1985,2004,2,4,Scale-dependent climate signals drive breeding phenology of three seabird species,Breeding at the right time is essential for animals in seasonal climates in order to ensure that the energy demands of reproduction| particularly the nutritional requirements of growing young| coincide with peak food availability. Global climate change is likely to cause shifts in the timing of peak food availability| and in order to adapt successfully to current and future climate change| animals need to be able to adjust the time at which they initiate breeding. Many animals use environmental cues available before the breeding season to predict the seasonal peak in food availability and adjust their phenology accordingly. We tested the hypothesis that regulation of breeding onset should reflect the scale at which organisms perceive their environment by comparing phenology of three seabird species at a North Sea colony. As predicted| the phenology of two dispersive species| black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) and common guillemot (Uria aalge)| correlated with a large-scale environmental cue (the North Atlantic Oscillation)| whereas a resident species| European shag (Phalacrocorax aristotelis)| was more affected by local conditions (sea surface temperature) around the colony. Annual mean breeding success was lower in late years for European shags| but not for the other two species. Since correlations among climate patterns at different scales are likely to change in the future| these findings have important implications for how migratory animals can respond to future climate change. 1999,2004,2,3,Scenarios for sea level on the Finnish coast,The linkage between global climate change and sea level on the Finnish coast was studied. Scenarios were calculated for the long-term mean sea level in the future| based on the global change scenarios given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The effects of global mean sea level| local land uplift and the water balance of the Baltic Sea were taken into account. The effect of the water balance was estimated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. In most cases the rise in water level is expected to balance the land uplift in the Gulf of Finland| and the past declining trend of the relative sea level is not expected to continue. In the Gulf of Bothnia| the stronger land uplift rate still results in a fall of the relative mean sea level in the future. The uncertainties in the scenarios are large. Scenarios for the intra-annual variability of the sea level were constructed by extrapolating the 20th century trends of increasing variability. 6463,2004,5,3,Sea level in Roman time in the Central Mediterranean and implications for recent change,Instrumental records indicate that ocean volumes during the 20th century have increased so as to raise eustatic sea level by similar to1-2 mm/year and the few available records suggest that this is higher than for the previous century. Geological data indicate that ocean volumes have increased since the main phase of deglaciation about 7000 years ago but whether this continued into the recent past remains unclear. Yet| this is important for establishing whether the recent rise is associated with global warming or is part of a longer duration non-anthropogenic signal. Here| we present results for sea-level change in the central Mediterranean basin for the Roman Period using new archaeological evidence. These data provide a precise measure of local sea level of -1.35 +/- 0.07 m at 2000 years ago. Part of this change is the result of ongoing glacio-hydro isostatic adjustment of the crust subsequent to the last deglaciation. When corrected for this| using geologically constrained model predictions| the change in eustatic sea level since the Roman Period is -0.13 +/- 0.09 m. A comparison with tide-gauge records from nearby locations and with geologically constrained model predictions of the glacio-isostatic contributions establishes that the onset of modem sea-level rise occurred in recent time at similar to100 +/- 53 years before present. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1956,2004,2,4,Sea level rise affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice production,In this study| we assessed the impact of sea level rise| one of the most ascertained consequences of global climate change| for water levels in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). We used a hydraulic model to compute water levels from August to November-when flooding is presently critical-under sea level rise scenarios of 20 cm (= Delta20) and 45 cm (= Delta45)| respectively. The outputs show that the contour lines of water levels will be shifted up to 25 km (Delta20) and 50 km (Delta45) towards the sea due to higher sea levels. At the onset of the flood season ( August)| the average increment in water levels in the Delta is 14.1 cm (Delta20) and 32.2 cm (Delta45)| respectively. At the peak of the flood season ( October)| high discharge from upstream attenuates the increment in water level| but average water level rise of 11.9 cm (Delta20) and 27.4 cm (Delta45)| respectively| still imply a substantial aggravation of flooding problems in the VMD. GIS techniques were used to delineate areas with different levels of vulnerability| i.e.| area with high (2.3 mio ha = 60% of the VMD)| medium (0.6 mio ha = 15%) and low (1 mio ha = 25%) vulnerability due to sea level rise. Rice production will be affected through excessive flooding in the tidally inundated areas and longer flooding periods in the central part of the VMD. These adverse impacts could affect all three cropping seasons| Mua (main rainfed crop)| Dong Xuan (Winter-Spring) and He Thu (Summer-Autumn) in the VMD unless preventive measures are taken. 6719,2004,2,4,Sea surface temperature constrains wedge-tailed shearwater foraging success within breeding seasons,Processes that underlie impacts of global warming on marine organisms at upper trophic levels are largely unknown. Long-term studies of seabirds indicate that inter-annual decreases in fledging success are correlated with El Nino years| when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above long-term averages. These studies propose that seasonal processes are most likely responsible. To date| no work has focused on the potential impacts of elevated SSTs on seabird reproduction at finer time scales| i.e. within a breeding season. We directly measured the influence of SST variability on foraging success in the wedge-tailed shearwater Puffinus pacificus within and among 3 breeding seasons at Heron Island in the southern Great Barrier Reef| Australia. We found that changes in foraging success (meal size and feed frequency) and chick growth were negatively correlated with daily variations in SST both within and among seasons. Our findings suggest that forage resource availability fluctuated daily in direct association with small-scale variation in SST. This is evidence that declines in seabird breeding success| previously coupled exclusively with large-scale El Nino conditions and processes| may also involve fine-scale mechanisms. Consequently| observed El Nino scale impacts may include season-specific outcomes of day-to-day trophic interactions that operate within all breeding seasons. 6568,2004,2,2,Sea-ice change and its connection with climate change in the Arctic in CMIP2 simulations,In this work| we analyze the two-dimensional distribution of mean and intermodel spread of Arctic sea ice and climate change at the time of CO2 doubling and their connection using the simulations from the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). Arctic surface warming at the time of CO2 doubling is found to be not evenly distributed and ranges from 1degrees to 5degreesC. The intermodel spread is pronounced in the Arctic Ocean| particularly in the Barents Sea. Reduction of sea-ice thickness (SIT) is in the range 0.3-1.8 m and mainly appears in the Greenland-Barents Seas. Meanwhile| sea-ice concentrations (SIC) decrease more than 10% in most regions of the Arctic Ocean. The sensitivity of Arctic surface air temperature change with respect to sea-ice area change is model-dependent. For some models| the sensitivity is different even in different periods of the transient integration. Values of the sensitivity vary from -2.0 to -0.5degreesC/10(6) km(2) for most CMIP2 models. A colder (warmer) Arctic climate may favor a higher (lower) sensitivity. The simulated mean and intermodel spread patterns of surface air temperature (SAT) change are similar to those of SIT and sea level pressure (SLP) changes. This implies that the mean and intermodel spread of projected Arctic climate change are influenced by the interaction between sea ice and the atmosphere. Both SIT and SIC are sensitive to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations| and are connected with SAT and SLP changes in the Arctic. The average of all model simulations indicates that the north-south SLP gradient and the mean westerly winds are enhanced by CO2 doubling. Finally| both the mean and intermodel spread patterns show considerable differences between models with and without flux adjustment in some regions. 6620,2004,3,4,Search of optimum gas mixture ratio as gas insulating medium by genetic algorithm,Genetic algorithm is applied to find the optimum gas mixture ratio as gas insulating medium substituting pure SF6. Genetic Algorithm is very useful to find the optimum solution from vast searching possibilities. Testing each gas mixture by experiment requires a long time. The present method is very efficient to preselect the. candidates of gas mixtures before more thorough but time-consuming investigation via experiment is carried out. The gas mixture ratio is coded as a series of bits simulating a genetic sequence of a life form. Two-term Boltzmann equation is used to calculate the effective ionization coefficient of each gas mixture that is used to evaluate the degree of adaptation of each individual representing one set of mixture ratios. Two types of degree of adaptation are used to evaluate each individual| the effective ionization coefficient at the critical ratio of the electric field to the gas density of SF6 of 359.3 x 10(21) Vm(2)| and the global warming potential. Based on the degree of adaptation| better individuals can be selected as parents of the next generation| leaving their genes to future generations. After some generations| the group of individuals converges into the optimum with the best degree of adaptation.
6651,2004,4,4,Seasonal development of the properties and composition of landfast sea ice in the Gulf of Finland| the Baltic Sea,[1] The seasonal development of the structure| salinity| and stable oxygen isotopic composition (delta(18)O) of landfast sea ice was studied during the winter seasons 1999 - 2001 in the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The main focuses were on the seasonal and the interannual variability in ice properties and composition and on the contribution of meteoric ice to sea ice mass balance. Results provide a first statistical description of the seasonal evolution of sea ice in mild ice climate conditions. The ice has a characteristic structure with an upper granular ice layer| composed almost exclusively of superimposed ice and snow-ice| averaging at 20 - 35% of the total ice thickness. The remaining is composed of columnar or intermediate granular columnar ice| depending on growth conditions. While salinity shows a uniform profile through the ice| delta(18)O shows lower values in the surface because of meteoric ice formation. The thin ice cover is susceptible to changes in atmospheric conditions| and rapid changes in ice salinity are connected to changes in the ice thermal regime and flooding. The contribution of meteoric ice varied from 0 to 35% ( by mass)| depending on season and year. Superimposed ice formation is a recurring process and significantly contributed to ice growth ( up to 20% by mass)| especially late in the season during snowmelt-freeze cycles. Liquid precipitation also cause formation of intermittent superimposed ice layers at these latitudes. The contribution of meteoric ice to sea ice mass balance is largely dependent on the amount and timing of snow accumulation and timing of snowmelt-freeze processes| which all showed large year-to-year variation. The conditions presented here may start to occur at higher latitudes if global warming continues. 1983,2004,2,4,Seasonal thermal signatures of heat transfer by water exchange in an underground vault,The temperature of a 10-point vertical profile at the rock-atmosphere interface has been monitored since 2000 September in an underground vault at Aburatsubo| Japan| where resistivity variations have been reported in association with earthquakes. The non-ventilated vault is characterized by an annual temperature variation of about 1.2degreesC peak to peak| compatible with thermal diffusion in the surrounding tuff rock| and by a long-term temperature increase of about 0.1degreesC per year| possibly due to a local or global climate change. Owing to a careful relative calibration of the 10 thermistors used in this experiment| these data establish that the ceiling temperature is higher than the floor temperature by 0.04 to 0.28degreesC. Transient temperature variations are observed in association with human presence or with typhoons| with a characteristic spatial pattern revealing structural heterogeneity. Variations with periods ranging from 1 day to 1 week| with an amplitude two time larger and a phase advance on the floor with respect to the ceiling| are observed from November to May. Variations with periods larger than 1 week| with an amplitude two times smaller and a phase lag on the floor with respect to the ceiling| are observed from June to October. These cycles are linked to the sign of the seasonal heat flux. We propose an interpretation in which heat transfer in the cavity is dominated by diffusion of water vapour from June to October (heat flux downwards| summer regime) and by convective water transport from November to May (heat flux upwards| winter regime). The water flow inferred from this model can be used to predict the water saturation of the rock as a function of time. Because of a permanent radiative heat flux from top to bottom| the upward water flow in the winter regime is larger than the downward water flow in the summer regime| resulting in a slow depletion of water from the rock below the cavity. This unbalanced water flow could contribute to an observed steady secular increase of rock resistivity| and possibly also to the long-term temperature increase of 0.1degreesC per year. It is important to understand these processes in the context of underground geophysical observatories| underground waste storage and contaminant transport| as well as for the preservation of cultural items such as cave paintings. 6480,2004,3,3,Second law analysis of the transcritical CO2 refrigeration cycle,Because of the global warming impact of HFCs| the use of natural refrigerants has received worldwide attention. Efficient use of refrigerants is of pressing concern to the present automotive and HVAC industries. The natural refrigerant| carbon dioxide (CO2)| exhibits promise for use in automotive air conditioning systems| in particular the transcritical CO2 refrigeration cycle. The objective of this work is to identify the main factors that affect CO2 system performance. A second law of thermodynamic analysis on the entire CO2 refrigeration cycle is conducted so that the effectiveness of the components of the system can be deduced and ranked| allowing future efforts to focus on improving the components that have the highest potential for advancement. The analysis reveals that the compressor and the gas cooler exhibit the largest non-idealities within the system| and hence| efforts should be focused on improving these components. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2010,2004,4,4,Seedling establishment of a boreal tree species (Pinus sylvestris) at its southernmost distribution limit: consequences of being in a marginal Mediterranean habitat,1 We analyse the factors controlling seedling establishment of Scots pine at its southernmost geographical limit (southern Spain)| by monitoring emergence| survival and growth for up to 4 years in the microhabitats to which seeds are dispersed. Naturally established seedlings were monitored in two mountain ranges| and experimental sowings were performed both in woodlands and in adjacent successional shrublands into which the forest could expand. 2 Emergence was high in all microhabitats| although it was highest under the canopy of shrubs. Overall survival was low| with c. 90% of seedlings dying in the first growing season (c. 98% after several growing seasons). Survival differed among microhabitats| being highest under shrubs and extremely low (or zero) under pines or in bare soil. 3 Seedling growth was the highest in areas of bare soil| intermediate under shrubs| and very low under pines. 4 Establishment under pines was prevented by both mortality and poor performance| and good performance cannot counteract high mortality in the open. Shrubs| however| acted as nurse plants| buffering summer drought without reducing radiation to levels critical for growth| and protecting seedlings from ungulate trampling| hail and frost heave. 5 Patterns of recruitment were similar for woodland stands and successional shrublands. In addition| patterns of survival for naturally established seedlings were similar to those of seedlings originating from experimental sowings. 6 Juveniles were positively associated with shrubs but negatively with bare soil or areas below pine canopies. The facilitative effect of shrubs on seedling survival therefore changes the spatial pattern of recruitment from that determined by germination. 7 Overall| processes controlling seedling establishment in these southern Scots pine forests differ sharply from those operating in its main distribution area. The comparison among contrasting geographical ranges may contribute to an understanding of the role of environmental conditions in the balance between competition and facilitation| and assist in forecasting plant regeneration responses to global climate change. 6592,2004,3,3,Selective oxidation of ethylhenzene to styrene with carbon dioxide,The dehydrogenation process for the production of styrene ( ST) based on the selective oxidation of ethylbenzene (EB) with the major global warming gas CO2| is reviewed. The usage of CO2 instead of steam could provide several advantages such as reduction of the reaction temperature| remarkable energy saving in the distillation process of ST| restraining deactivation of catalysts to some degree| and so on. The iron-oxide-based catalysts and the vanadium-oxide-based catalysts are highly active and promising catalysts for the new reaction system. The mechanism of CO2 oxidation is also discussed. It can be concluded that the remarkable promoting effect of CO2 on the dehydrogenation of EB is due to both redox cycle of oxide catalyst and coupling of EB with reversed water gas shift reaction. Although the application of CO2 is very effective| the catalysts deactivation mechanism| suitable measures to enhance their catalytic stability and the economic evaluation on the new process must be further investigated. 6461,2004,4,4,Sensing of halocarbons using femtosecond laser-induced fluorescence,A femtosecond laser-induced clean fluorescence technique was explored as a means to monitor halogenated alkanes in the atmosphere. Characteristic difluorocarbene radical (CF(2)) fluorescence in the UV-vis can be generated inside a femtosecond laser-induced filament for different halocarbons. We show that| due to different dissociation and excitation kinetics leading to fluorescence emission| it is possible to temporally resolve the characteristic fluorescence of CF(2)-containing halocarbons from that of background species| therefore enhancing the signal-to-noise ratio. Laboratory-scale experiments demonstrate the potential use of femtosecond laser-induced clean fluorescence for the remote sensing of halocarbons in the atmosphere. The combination of this detection strategy with LIDAR could allow the long-range monitoring of several atmospheric species with a single laser source| eventually leading to a better understanding of chemical and dynamic processes affecting global warming| ozone loss| tropospheric pollution| and weather prediction. 6438,2004,4,4,Sensitivity analysis of aerosol direct radiative forcing in ultraviolet-visible wavelengths and consequences for the heat budget,A series of sensitivity studies were performed with a spectral radiative transfer model using aerosol data from the Global Aerosol Data Set (GADS| data available at http://www.meteo.physik.uni-muenchen.de/strahlung/aerosol/aerosol.htm) in order to investigate and quantify the relative role of key climatic parameters on clear-sky ultraviolet-visible direct aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA)| within the atmosphere and at the Earth's surface. The model results show that relative humidity and aerosol single-scattering albedo are the most important climatic parameters that determine aerosol forcing at the TOA and at the Earth's surface and atmosphere| respectively. Relative humidity exerts a non-linear positive radiative effect| i.e. increasing humidity amplifies the magnitude of the forcing in the atmosphere and at the surface. Our model sensitivity studies show that increasing relative humidity by 10%| in relative terms| increases the aerosol forcing by factors of 1.42 at the TOA| 1.02 in the atmosphere and 1.17 at the surface. An increase in aerosol single-scattering albedo by 10%| in relative terms| increased the aerosol forcing at the TOA by 1.29| while it decreased the forcing in the atmosphere and at the surface by factors of 0.2 and 0.69| respectively. Our results show that an increase in relative humidity enhances the planetary cooling effect of aerosols (increased reflection of solar radiation to space) over oceans and low-albedo land areas| whilst over polar regions and highly reflecting land surfaces the warming effect of aerosols changes to a cooling effect. Thus| global warming and an associated increase in relative humidity would lead to enhanced aerosol cooling worldwide. The sensitivity results also demonstrate that an increase in surface albedo due to| for example| a reduction in land vegetation cover| would lead to enhanced atmospheric warming by aerosols leading to a reduction in cloud formation and enhancement of the desertification process. On the contrary| a decrease in surface albedo over polar regions due to| for example| ice-melting associated with global warming| would reduce the planetary warming effect of aerosols over polar areas. Aerosol forcing is found to be quite sensitive to cloud cover| as well as to aerosol optical thickness and the asymmetry parameter| and to the wavelength dependence of the aerosol optical properties. 6496,2004,2,3,Sensitivity of a dynamic global vegetation model to climate and atmospheric CO(2),The equilibrium carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere has been investigated by running the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to equilibrium for a range of CO(2) concentrations and idealized climate states. Local climate is defined by the combination of an observation-based climatology and perturbation patterns derived from a 4 x CO(2) warming simulations| which are linearly scaled to global mean temperature deviations| DeltaT(glob). Global carbon storage remains close to its optimum for DeltaT(glob) in the range of +/-3degreesC in simulations with constant atmospheric CO(2). The magnitude of the carbon loss to the atmosphere per unit change in global average surface temperature shows a pronounced nonlinear threshold behavior. About twice as much carbon is lost per degree warming for DeltaT(glob) above 3degreesC than for present climate. Tropical| temperate| and boreal trees spread poleward with global warming. Vegetation dynamics govern the distribution of soil carbon storage and turnover in the climate space. For cold climate conditions| the global average decomposition rate of litter and soil decreases with warming| despite local increases in turnover rates. This result is not compatible with the assumption| commonly made in global box models| that soil turnover increases exponentially with global average surface temperature| over a wide temperature range. 6435,2004,2,3,Sensitivity of evapotranspiration to global warming: a case study of arid zone of Rajasthan (India),Global warming due to greenhouse effect is expected to cause major changes in climate of some areas. The change in climate is likely to have a profound effect on hydrological cycle viz. precipitation| evapotranspiration| soil moisture etc. Evapotranspiration (ET) being the major component of hydrological cycle will affect crop water requirement and future planning and management of water resources. In the present study| an attempt has been made to study the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to global warming for arid regions of Rajasthan (India). The Penman-Monteith equation was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration| and sensitivity of ET has been studied in terms of change in temperature| solar radiation| wind speed and vapor pressure within a possible range of +/-20% from the normal long-term meteorological parameters of 32 years (1971-2002). Changes in precipitation and stomatal resistance to increased CO2 concentration have not been considered in the present study. The study suggests an increase of 14.8% of total ET demand with increase in temperature by 20% (maximum 8degreesC). ET is less sensitive (11%) to increase in net solar radiation| followed by wind speed (7%) in comparison to temperature. Increase in vapor pressure (20%) has a small negative effect on ET (-4.31%). A 10% increase in temperature and actual vapor pressure coupled with 10% decrease in net solar radiation could result even in marginal decrease of total ET (0.30%). Increase of 10% in temperature alone| with 10% decrease in net solar radiation| actual vapor pressure and wind velocity could also result in marginal decrease in total ET (0.36%). A marginal increase in ET demand due to global warming will have a larger impact on resource-poor| fragile arid zone ecosystem of Rajasthan. It is high time for planners/users to think in terms of expected change in water requirement due to global warming while planning for development of future water resources in the arid region of Rajasthan. A wide spectrum climate change scenario is discussed in the paper as guideline for future development of water resources. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6634,2004,2,3,Sensitivity of the inorganic ocean carbon cycle to future climate warming in the UVic coupled model,With increased anthropogenic CO2 emitted into the atmosphere| climate feedbacks could potentially reduce further uptake of carbon by the oceans. The most significant feedbacks acting on the system to reduce carbon sequestration by the oceans are reductions in the thermohaline circulation (THC) and increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Although changes in SSTs affect the solubility of atmospheric CO2 across the ocean-atmosphere interface| changes to the THC lead to more fundamental modifications of the ocean circulation and hence transport and storage of carbon to the deep ocean. Using a coupled model of intermediate complexity which incorporates a carbon solubility pump| we project atmospheric CO2 levels under global warming scenarios. A transient weakening of the THC is found in most simulations and increased SSTs are found in all simulations. Although these positive feedbacks act on the carbon system to reduce oceanic uptake| the ocean has the capacity to take up 65-75% of the anthropogenic CO2 increase once the forcing is turned off. This reduces by about 5% for each 50-year period that anthropogenic emissions are maintained at a stabilized and elevated atmospheric CO2 level| and converges to zero if the system is forced with stabilized levels well into the future. The effects of climate feedbacks on carbon uptake are also examined and we find that the ocean stores 7% more carbon when there are no climate feedbacks acting on the system. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with respect to the representation of ocean mixing and sea-ice dynamics. The inclusion of the Gent-McWilliams parametrization for mixing associated with mesoscale eddies leads to a further 6% increase in oceanic uptake| whereas the inclusion of sea-ice dynamics only leads to a 2% variation in global uptake. 6523,2004,3,4,Short- and long-term greenhouse gas and radiative forcing impacts of changing water management in Asian rice paddies,Fertilized rice paddy soils emit methane while flooded| emit nitrous oxide during flooding and draining transitions| and can be a source or sink of carbon dioxide. Changing water management of rice paddies can affect net emissions of all three of these greenhouse gases. We used denitrification-decomposition (DNDC)| a process-based biogeochemistry model| to evaluate the annual emissions of CH(4)| N(2)O| and CO(2) for continuously flooded| single-| double-| and triple-cropped rice (three baseline scenarios)| and in further simulations| the change in emissions with changing water management to midseason draining of the paddies| and to alternating crops of midseason drained rice and upland crops (two alternatives for each baseline scenario). We used a set of first-order atmospheric models to track the atmospheric burden of each gas over 500 years. We evaluated the dynamics of the radiative forcing due to the changes in emissions of CH(4)| N(2)O| and CO(2) (alternative minus baseline)| and compared these with standard calculations of CO(2)-equivalent emissions using global warming potentials (GWPs). All alternative scenarios had lower CH(4) emissions and higher N(2)O emissions than their corresponding baseline cases| and all but one sequestered carbon in the soil more slowly. Because of differences in emissions| in radiative forcing per molecule| and in atmospheric time constants (lifetimes)| the relative radiative impacts of CH(4)| N(2)O| and CO(2) varied over the 500-year simulations. In three of the six cases| the initial change in radiative forcing was dominated by reduced CH(4) emissions (i.e. a cooling for the first few decades); in five of the six cases| the long-term radiative forcing was dominated by increased N(2)O emissions (i.e. a warming over several centuries). The overall complexity of the radiative forcing response to changing water management could not easily be captured with conventional GWP calculations. 6519,2004,2,4,Should avian egg size increase as a result of global warming? A case study using the red-backed shrike (Lanius collurio),From some life-history traits| avian egg size can be postulated as potentially affected by climate change. In this paper| we present and discuss the potential effect of mean temperature in the breeding season on egg size of the red-backed shrike (Lanius collurio). During the 1971-2002 study period| egg volume of the red-backed shrike decreased significantly| birds arrived at the breeding site significantly earlier| and arrival date was correlated with the earliest first egg date. To our knowledge| we present the first evidence that avian egg size decreased significantly in a long-term study. However| we do not have experimental manipulations in support of our data and we can only conclude that the decrease in egg volume in the studied population might result as a consequence of a number of factors| including changes in temperature| as well as in food supply. Therefore climate change effects on a bird's life-history traits can be more complex than just the simple direct effect of temperature. 1968,2004,2,2,Simulated long-term changes in river discharge and soil moisture due to global warming,By use of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model| this study explores the changes of water availability| as measured by river discharge and soil moisture| that could occur by the middle of the 21st century in response to combined increases of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols based upon the "IS92a" scenario. In addition| it presents the simulated change in water availability that might be realized in a few centuries in response to a quadrupling of CO2| concentration in the atmosphere. Averaging the results over extended periods| the radiatively forced changes| which are very similar between the two sets of experiments| were successfully extracted. The analysis indicates that the discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob' increase by up to 20% (of the pre-Industrial Period level) by the middle of the 21st century and by up to 40% or more in a few centuries. In the tropics| the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra rivers increase substantially. However| the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller| with both positive and negative signs. For soil moisture| the results of this study indicate reductions during much of the year in many semiarid regions of the world| such as the southwestern region of North America| the northeastern region of China| the Mediterranean coast of Europe| and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. As a percentage| the reduction is particularly large during the dry season. From middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere| soil moisture decreases in Summer but increases in winter. 1987,2004,2,4,Simulating the spatio-temporal variability of streamflow response to climate change scenarios in a mesoscale basin,A continuous rainfall-runoff simulation was performed to assess the potential effect of climate changes on the streamflow regimes and water resources of tributaries of the Alzette river basin extending over 1176 km(2)| mainly in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. characterized by various hydrological patterns. Global climate change scenarios for the 2050 horizon| based on GCM projections from the KNMI and UKHI synoptic runs| were disaggregated into mesoscale daily PET and rainfall series. Seasonal expected PET changes were proportionally applied to present daily values| whereas future hyetographs were empirically constructed according to observed trends in rainfall time series for the study area. The various ways of applying the mesoscale rainfall scenarios exert a significant influence on the magnitude and spatial distribution of streamflow responses. The comparison of future and present hydrographs also shows that the impact of mesoscale climate change is extremely variable with regard to the considered hydrological variable. The spatial variability of streamflow responses is largely conditioned by climatic and physiographical characteristics of the sub-basins. The winter period is most affected by altered climate conditions and some sub-re ions appear to be particularly sensitive in terms of changes in low or high flows. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6689,2004,4,4,Simulating transport of non-Chernobyl Cs-137 and Sr-90 in the North Atlantic-Arctic region,The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides Cs-137 and Sr-90| originating from nuclear bomb testing and the Sellafield reprocessing plants in the Irish Sea| are simulated using a global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysed fields for the period 1950 to present. Comparison of temporal evolution of observed and simulated concentrations of Cs-137 have been conducted for the regions east of Scotland| west of central Norway and at the entrance of the Barents Sea. It follows that the radionuclides from the Sellafield discharge reach the Barents Sea region after 4-5 years| in accordance with observations. The simulation provides a detailed distribution and evolution of the radionuclides over the integration time. For the Atlantic waters off the coast of Norway and in the southern Barents Sea| the atmospheric fallout dominates over the Sellafield release up to the mid 1960s and from the early 1990s| whereas Sellafield is the main source for the two radionuclides in the 1970s and 1980s. It is furthermore argued that model systems like the one presented here can be used for future prediction of radioactive contaminations in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean| for instance under various global warming scenarios. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6452,2004,2,4,Simulation of potential range expansion of oak disease caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi under climate change,This study examines the effects of climate warming on one of the most widely distributed and destructive forest pathogens| Phytophthora cinnamomi. In Europe| the winter survival of the pathogen is the dominant cue for the development of the disease it causes to oaks| especially Quercus robur and Q. rubra. The potential pathogen and disease geographic ranges were compared in France between two reference periods| 1968-1998 and 2070-2099. Simulations were obtained by combining a physiologically based approach predicting the pathogen winter survival in relation to microhabitat temperature (in the phloem of infected trees) with a regionalized climatic scenario derived from a global circulation model. Positive anomalies in winter temperatures calculated with this scenario were in the range 0.5-5degreesC between the periods 2070-2099 and the 1968-1998| according to sites and months. As a consequence| higher annual rates of P. cinnamomi survival were predicted| resulting in a potential range expansion of the disease of one to a few hundred kilometers eastward from the Atlantic coast within one century. Based on this example| the study emphasizes the need of a better understanding of the impacts of global change on the biotic constraint constituted by plant pathogens. 6737,2004,2,4,Soil C Accumulation in a White Oak CO(2)-Enrichment Experiment via Enhanced Root Production,After four growing seasons| soil below white oak trees exposed to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (ambient + 300 ppm) had an average of 14% more soil carbon than soil below trees exposed to ambient levels of carbon dioxide. The soil carbon inventories in five soil cores collected from ambient chambers and six soil cores collected from elevated chambers at the Global Change Field Research Site| Oak Ridge| Tennessee| were measured. The authors conclude that the increase in soil carbon was due to an increase in belowground soil carbon input| because aboveground litter inputs were excluded by experimental design. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that elevated carbon dioxide levels are increasing the amount of carbon stored in soil. 1990,2004,3,4,Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate change and food security,The carbon sink capacity of the world's agricultural and degraded soils is 50 to 66% of the historic carbon loss of 42 to 78 gigatons of carbon. The rate of soil organic carbon sequestration with adoption of recommended technologies depends on soil texture and structure| rainfall| temperature| farming system| and soil management. Strategies to increase the soil carbon pool include soil restoration and woodland regeneration| no-till farming| cover crops| nutrient management| manuring and sludge application| improved grazing| water conservation and harvesting| efficient irrigation| agroforestry practices| and growing energy crops on spare lands. An increase of 1 ton of soil carbon pool of degraded cropland soils may increase crop yield by 20 to 40 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) for wheat| 10 to 20 kg/ha for maize| and 0.5 to 1 kg/ha for cowpeas. As well as enhancing food security| carbon sequestration has the potential to offset fossil-fuel emissions by 0.4 to 1.2 gigatons of carbon per year| or 5 to 15% of the global fossil-fuel emissions. 6548,2004,4,4,Soil physics: a Moroccan perspective,Research on environmental pollution and degradation of soil and water resources is now of highest priority worldwide. To address these problems| soil physics should be conceived as a central core to this research. This paper objectives are to: (1) address the role and importance of soil physics| (2) demonstrate progress in this discipline| and (3) present various uses of soil physics in research| environment and industry. The study of dynamic processes at and within the soil vadose zone (flow| dispersion| transport| sedimentation| etc.)| and ephemeral phenomena (deformation| compaction| etc.)| form an area of particular interest in soil physics. Soil physics has changed considerably over time. These changes are due to needed precision in data collection for accurate interpretation of space and time variation of soil properties. Soil physics interacts with other disciplines and sciences such as hydro(geo)logy| agronomy| environment| micro-meteorology| pedology| mathematics| physics| water sciences| etc. These interactions prompted the emergence of advanced theories and comprehensive mechanisms of most natural processes| development of new mathematical tools (modeling and computer simulation| fractals| geostatistics| transformations)| creation of high precision instrumentation (computer assisted| less time constraint| increased number of measured parameters) and the scale sharpening of physical measurements which ranges from micro to watershed. The environment industry has contributed to an enlargement of many facets of soil physics. In other words. research demand in soil physics has increased considerably to satisfy specific and environmental problems (contamination of water resources| global warming| etc.). Soil physics research is still at an embryonic stage in Morocco. Consequently| soil physicists can take advantage of developments occurring overseas| and need to build up a database of soil static and dynamic properties and to revise developed models to meet our conditions. Large| but special| investment is required to promote research programs in soil physics| which consider developments in this discipline and respect Moroccan needs. These programs will be highlighted herein. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6394,2004,2,3,Soil respiration under prolonged soil warming: are rate reductions caused by acclimation or substrate loss?,The world's soils contain a large amount of carbon so that even a fractionally small loss or gain could have a quantitatively important feedback effect on net CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. It is therefore important to fully understand the temperature dependence of soil-carbon decomposition. Evidence from various observations can be used to quantify the temperature dependence of carbon efflux| but it is important to ensure that confounding factors| such as changing water relations or availability of readily decomposable substrate| are fully considered in inferring an underlying temperature response from observed response patterns. A number of recent findings from soil-warming experiments have led to the suggestion that stimulation of soil-carbon efflux by increasing temperature is only transitory before acclimation takes place and carbon efflux rates return to similar rates as before the increase in temperature. It is shown here that this response pattern can be explained through a simple two-pool soil-carbon model with no acclimation response needing to be invoked. The temporal pattern is| instead| due to depletion of readily decomposable substrate. It shows that findings of reduced respiration rate in soil-warming experiments are consistent with unchanged high temperature sensitivity of organic carbon decomposition and affirms that there is| indeed| a danger of positive feedback between global warming and the release of soil organic carbon that can lead to further warming. 6711,2004,4,4,Solar variability and global warming: a statistical comparison since 1850,The magnitude of the Sun's influence on climate has been a subject of intense debate. Estimates of this magnitude are generally based on assumptions regarding the forcing due to solar irradiance variations entering climate modelling. Given the complexity of the climate system| however| such modelling is perforce based on simplifying assumptions| which leaves it open to criticism. We take a complementary approach. We assume that the Sun has been responsible for climate change prior to 1970 and that their interrelation remained unchanged afterwards. Then| employing reconstructions and measured records of relevant solar quantities as well as of the cosmic-ray flux| we estimate statistically which fraction of the dramatic temperature rise after that date could be due to the influence of the Sun. We show that at least in the most recent past (since about 1970) the solar influence on climate cannot have been significant. (C) 2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Lid. All rights reserved. 1926,2004,3,4,Solving the climate problem - Technologies available to curb CO2 emissions,In an effort to avoid serious ecological disruption and global climate change|low-carbon energy strategies need to be implemented on a world-wide scale along with the introduction of carbon policies and carbon management.
6682,2004,4,1,Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos,Plausible estimates for the effect of soot on snow and ice albedos (1.5% in the Arctic and 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas) yield a climate forcing of +0.3 W/m(2) in the Northern Hemisphere. The "efficacy" of this forcing is approximate to2| i.e.| for a given forcing it is twice as effective as CO2 in altering global surface air temperature. This indirect soot forcing may have contributed to global warming of the past century| including the trend toward early springs in the Northern Hemisphere| thinning Arctic sea ice| and melting land ice and permafrost. If| as we suggest| melting ice and sea level rise define the level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system| then reducing soot emissions| thus restoring snow albedos to pristine high values| would have the double benefit of reducing global warming and raising the global temperature level at which dangerous anthropogenic interference occurs. However| soot contributions to climate change do not alter the conclusion that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been the main cause of recent global warming and will be the predominant climate forcing in the future. 6532,2004,4,4,Southwest Australia past and future rainfall trends,A statistical method| based on the idea of analogous synoptic situations| is used to study the observed rainfall trends in the SW of Western Australia. The method has been developed and optimised by relating patterns of atmospheric fields (predictors) to station records of rainfall (predictands)| for both rain occurrences and daily rain amounts. When tested on observational data| the analogue method is able to reproduce the trend observed globally during the past 50 yr| showing the sensitivity of the statistical approach to changed climatic conditions. The choice of predictor has an important impact on the results: mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and vertically integrated precipitable water (PWTR) are both important in explaining the observed local rainfall trend. The model is then applied to 3 coupled models' simulations of the current climate. The improvement gained when using the statistical downscaling tool over direct model grid-average outputs is substantial| Most of the model biases are removed and realistic probability distribution functions at the station level are obtained. The method is then applied to altered climate conditions; the impact of model sensitivities on large-scale responses is quantified using the various coupled models. Future trends for rainfall| estimated by direct climate model outputs| are compared with downscaled projections. A general agreement is found; uncertainties are smaller amongst projections when the downscaling technique is used. All projections agree on a mean reduction of total rainfall in winter and spring. The possible impact of future drying trends induced by global warming is compounded by changes in mean and extreme rainfall| such as long wet spells and large yearly totals. 6599,2004,3,3,Space technologies for the building sector,One of the roles of the United Nations is to serve as a global conscience' and it has been inviting its Member States to give priority to addressing topics of global concern. One of the most debated and therefore best known initiatives is the 'Kyoto Agreement'. dealing with the prevention of further man-induced global warming. Another similar UN initiative in recent years is designed to address the problems of the World's largest cities| or 'MegaCities'. through a programme known as 'Habitat 21'. It is against this background that those involved in the ESA Technology Transfer Programme have been looking at how the Agency might be able to contribute to such initiatives by proposing space-derived and space-based technologies that can help to provide solutions. ESA's sponsorship of the publication in 2001 of the 'Megacities' book containing spectacular satellite remote-sensing imagery of the World's largest cities was seen as a first step in this direction. Designing the large conurbations of the future| as wen as the individual buildings that will make them up| already presents a formidable challenge| and one where the latest space technologies can help to improve the daily fives of those who will live there. Within the ESA Technology Transfer Programme| therefore| we have also begun to examine the potential contribution that space technologies can make to the building sector. The target is to be able to propose a very different style of housing surpassing current 'eco-designs' as wen as offering greater protection against| natural disasters and environmental threats. 2037,2004,2,4,Spatial and temporal shifts in stable isotope values of the bottom-dwelling shrimp Nauticaris marionis at the sub-Antarctic archipelago,Spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon and nitrogen stable isotope signatures of the bottom-dwelling caridean shrimp Nauticaris marionis were measured during April and May between 1984 and 2000 in the vicinity of Marion Island (the Prince Edward Islands| Southern Ocean). There was one trophic-level enrichment in bulk delta(15)N and delta(13)C signatures between small (<20 mm long) and large (>20 mm) specimens of N. marionis| suggesting distinct trophic differentiation among major shrimp size groups. Both delta(15)N and delta(13)C values of N. marionis increased with the depth| reflecting changes in their diet. There were no clear temporal trends in bulk delta(15)N signatures of N. marionis. However| compound-specific delta(15)N measurements of amino acids indicated that N. marionis from the inter-island realm occupied the trophic level of second order carnivores| while similarly sized shrimps in the near-shore realm were at the trophic level of first order carnivores. Compound-specific measurements also identified a change in the source of inorganic nitrogen at the base of the food web between the inter-island and near-shore realms. In contrast to the bulk delta(15)N values| a significant shift in bulk delta(13)C values of N. marionis was observed between 1984 and more recent years. This temporal change appears to be linked to changes in the overall productivity of the Prince Edward Island inter-island system| which could be linked to global climate change. 6428,2004,2,4,Spatial and temporal variability of coastal storms in the North Atlantic Basin,Over the past three to four decades| there has been a growing awareness of the important controls exerted by large-scale meteorological events on coastal systems. For example| definitive links are being established between short-term (timescales of 5 -10 years) beach dynamics and storm frequency. This paper assesses temporal variability of coastal storms (both tropical and extratropical) and the wave climatology in the North Atlantic Basin (NAB)| including the Gulf of Mexico. With both storm types| the empirical record shows decadal scale variability| but neither demonstrates highly significant trends that can be linked conclusively to natural or anthropogenic factors. Tropical storm frequencies have declined over the past two or three decades| which is perhaps related to recent intense and prolonged El Ninos. Some forecasts predict higher frequencies of tropical storms like that experienced from the 1920s to the 1960s to occur in coming decades. Results from general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that overall frequencies of tropical storms could decrease slightly| but that there is potential for the generation of more intense hurricanes. These data have important implications for the short-term evolution of coastal systems. There is strong suggestion that extratropical systems have declined overall over the past 50-100 years| but that there is an increase in frequency of very powerful storms| especially at higher latitudes. Both ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are shown to have associations with frequencies and tracking of these systems. These empirical results are in general agreement with GCM forecasts under global warming scenarios. Analyses of wave climatology in the NAB show that the last two to three decades have been rougher at high latitudes than several decades prior| but this more recent sea state is similar to conditions from about 100 years ago. The recent roughness at sea seems to be related to high NAO index values| which are also expected to increase with global warming. Thus| when coupled to an anticipated continued rise in global sea level| this trend will likely result in increasing loss of sediment from the beach-nearshore system resulting in widespread coastal erosion. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2000,2004,2,4,Spatiotemporal influences of climate on altitudinal treeline in northern Patagonia,Tree radial growth and seedling establishment of Nothofagus pumilio at alpine treeline near 40degrees S latitude in Chile and Argentina show time- and site-dependent relationships to interannual- and decadal-scale climate variation. Six treelines were sampled at two spatial scales corresponding to regional and local climates. A shift in climate from cool-wet to warm-dry conditions facilitated comparison of climate-vegetation relationships during two distinct periods: 1957-1976 and 1977-1996. For each treeline| tree radial growth and seedling establishment were correlated against monthly and seasonal temperature| precipitation| moisture availability| and two indices of El Ni (n) over tildeo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): southern oscillation index (SOI) and sea surface temperature (SST). Four key aspects of climatic influences on N. pumilio radial growth and seedling establishment were as follows. (1) The relationship between krummholz radial growth and temperature variation was nonlinear. (2) Moisture availability was the dominant climatic factor influencing seedling establishment| although temperature-precipitation interactions resulted in variability among study areas. (3) Climate conditions that facilitated Nothofagus pumilio seedling establishment were distinct| and often opposite| from those that enhanced radial growth. (4) The relationships of radial growth and seedling demography with climate and ENSO differed among study areas and have been unstable over the past 40 years. Observed spatial and temporal instabilities in vegetation-climate relationships demonstrate the complexity of treeline dynamics in northern Patagonia under a changing climate. We conclude that a directional increase in temperature| as predicted by current global climate scenarios| will not necessarily result in an upslope expansion of the N. pumilio forests growing at altitudinal treeline in northern Patagonia. 6580,2004,4,3,Standards development of global warming gas species: Methane| nitrous oxide| trichlorofluoromethane| and dichlorodifluoromethane,Environmental scientists from federal agencies| such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)| and academia have long suspected that increasing anthropogenic inputs of various trace gases into the atmosphere can cause changes in the earth's climate and protective ozone layer. Nitrous oxide and methane| cited in the Kyoto Protocol| as well as trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) and dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12)| cited in the Montreal Protocol| are all greenhouse gases and are implicated in the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer. The lack of national standards prompted research to determine the feasibility of preparing accurate and stable standards containing these four compounds. Development of these standards would support the measurement of these species by those in the atmospheric research community not having their own source of standards. A suite of eight primary gas standards containing methane| nitrous oxide| CFC-11| and CFC-12 in a balance of air were prepared gravimetrically to bracket the ambient atmospheric concentrations. The combined uncertainties (u(c)) were calculated from error propagation analysis that included the weighing data from the gravimetric preparation and other sources of error such as the purity analysis of the compounds and air matrix. The expanded uncertainties (U) for the gravimetric standards were <0.5% as calculated from the equation U = ku(c)| where the coverage factor k is equal to 2 for a 95% confidence interval. Analyses of the suite of standards by gas chromatography with flame-ionization and electron capture detection resulted in average absolute residuals of <0.25% from regression models. The NIST suite of eight gravimetric standards was used to determine the concentrations in two standards from NOAA. Those analyses resulted in bias across the two laboratories of less than or equal to2.1%. 6565,2004,2,4,Storm surges from extra-tropical cyclones,The possible influence of climate change on the tracks of the extra-tropical cyclones as well as storm surges is studied. Two different data bases have been used: one for the Great Lakes of North America and the other for the German Bight in the North Sea of Europe. For the Great Lakes region| significant east-west and north-south shifts in the tracks of ETC'S with decadal periodicities have been observed. However| there was no trend in the amplitudes of storm surges. The most important result for the Great Lakes is that| depending upon its position relative to the constantly shifting storm tracks| a given location could either experience a major storm surge or could miss out completely. The storm surges in the German Bight in general| and at Cuxhaven in particular| appear to show a slightly increasing trend in the latter part of the 20th century. However| the most significant result for the German Bight is that the number of storm tides (i.e.| multiple peaks in a given storm surge event) definitely has shown an increase in the second half of the 20th century. This increase is interpreted as due to the influence of meso-scale weather systems embedded in the synoptic scale ETCs. 6660,2004,3,3,Structural and thermodynamic properties of metallic hydrides used for energy storage,Nowadays| energetic needs are mainly covered by fossil energies leading to pollutant emissions mostly responsible for global warming. Among the different possible solutions for the greenhouse effect reduction| hydrogen has been proposed for energy transportation. Indeed| H-2 can be seen as a clean and efficient energy carrier. However| beside the difficulties related to hydrogen production| efficient high capacity storage is still to be developed. Hydrogen can be stored as a compressed gas| in liquefied tanks or absorbed in solids. Many metals and alloys are able to store large amounts of hydrogen. This latter solution is of interest in terms of safety| global yield and long time storage. However| to be suitable for applications| such compounds must present high capacity| good reversibility| fast reactivity and sustainability. In this paper| we will review on the structural and thermodynamic properties of metallic hydrides. Their solid-gas hydrogenation behaviour and the related absorption-desorption isotherm curves are examined as a useful criterion for the selection of suitable materials for applications. The storage performances obtained with these alloys are reported and some solutions to common problems such as corrosion| passivation| decrepitation| poor kinetic and short cycle life are discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6499,2004,4,3,Structures| thermochemistry| vibrational frequencies and integrated infrared intensities of SF(5)CF(3) and SF(5)CF(3)(-)| with implications for global temperature patterns,The molecular structures and energetics of the potent greenhouse gas SF(5)CF(3)/SF(5)CF(3)(-) species have been examined using nine hybrid and pure density functional theory (DFT) methods| with the basis sets of double-zeta plus polarization quality plus additional diffuse s- and p-type functions| denoted as DZP++. The geometries are fully optimized with each DFT method independently. The three different types of the neutral-anion energy separations reported in this work are the adiabatic electron affinity (EA(ad))| the vertical electron affinity (EA(vert)) and the vertical detachment energy (VDE). The dissociation energies of the SF(5)CF(3) and SF(5)CF(3)(-) species as well as the harmonic vibrational frequencies are reported. The neutral SF(5)CF(3) global minimum has C(S) symmetry in its (1)A' electronic ground state. The S-C bond distance for SF(5)CF(3) is predicted to be 1.898Angstrom (BHLYP) and the torsional barrier around the S-C bond is 17 cm(-1) (B3LYP). For the SF(5)CF(3)(-) anion| there are three minima. Structure a is geometrically similar to the neutral| while structure b has an energy close to a| but is best described as SF(5)(-)...CF(3). Charge distribution analysis indicates that structure a for SF(5)CF(3)(-) also has some ion-dipole character. Structure c has a lower energy| but it is a loose complex of the type SF(4)(-)...CF(4). The predicted EA(ad) values (from the neutral to the anionic structure a) for SF(5)CF(3) range from 1.59-3.00 eV| and the value 1.59 eV (KMLYP) is thought to be most reliable. The S-C bond dissociation energy D(SF(5)-CF(3)) is predicted to be 2.21 eV (B3LYP). For the SF(5)CF(3)(-) anion (structure a)| the theoretical energy for dissociation to SF(5)(-)+CF(3) is 0.06eV (B3LYP)| significantly smaller than other dissociation pathways. The IR absorptions of SF(5)CF(3) agree well with available experiments with average errors 22 (B3P86)| 24 (B3PW91)| 29 (B3LYP)| 52 (BP86); 52 (BPW91)| 61 (KMLYP) and 68 (BLYP)cm(-1). The theoretical results for the IR intensities show that SF(5)CF(3) may be an effective greenhouse gas and hence have a significant impact on global warming. These results are consistent with Ball's suggestion that SF(5)CF(3) may not have as long a lifetime as SF(6) in the atmosphere| and that its GWP might be overestimated. 6716,2004,4,4,Student exercises on fossil fuels| global warming| and gaia,In a recent series of tutorial papers| Rust [7|8|9|10] modelled measured time series for global temperatures and fossil fuel CO2 emissions with related combinations of polynomials| exponentials| and sinusoids| using least squares fits that can be done by students well grounded in practical statistics. The analysis suggested that temperatures cycle around a monotonically increasing| accelerating baseline with a period of approximate to65 years and that the exponential growth rate Of CO2 emissions varies inversely with this cycle. The Gaia hypothesis [5] suggests that the biosphere adjusts atmospheric greenhouse gases to maintain an optimal temperature for life. The previous analysis is here extended with a series of fitting exercises designed to demonstrate that the above described inverse relation represents a Gaian feedback. 6381,2004,3,4,Study of the OH and Cl-initiated oxidation| IR absorption cross-section| radiative forcing| and global warming potential of four C-4-hydrofluoroethers,Infrared absorption cross-sections and OH and Cl reaction rate coefficients for four C-4-hydrofluoroethers (CF3)(2)-CHOCH3| CF3CH2OCH2CF3| CF3CF2CH2OCH3| and CHF2CF2CH2OCH3 are reported. Relative rate measurements at 298 K and 1013 hPa of OH and Cl reaction rate coefficients give k(OH+(CF3)(2)CHOCH3) = (1.27 +/- 0.13) x 10(-13)| k(OH+CF3CH2OCH2CF3) = (1.51 +/- 0.24) x 10(-13)| k(OH+CF3CF2CH2OCH3) (6.42 +/- 0.33) x 10(-13)| k(OH+CHF(2)CF(2)CH(2)oCH(3)) = (8.7 +/- 0.5) x 10(-13)| k(Cl+(CF3)(2)CHOCH3) = (8.4 +/- 1.3) x 10(-12)| k(Cl+CF3CH2OCH2CF3) = (6.5 +/- 1.7) x 10(-13)| k(Cl+CF3CF2CH2CH2OCH3) = (4.0 +/- 0.8) x 10(-11)| and k(Cl+CHF2CF2CH2OCH3) = (2.65 +/- 0.17) x 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The primary products of the OH and Cl reactions with the fluorinated ethers have been identified as esters| and OH and Cl reaction rate coefficients for one of these| CF3CH2OCHO| are reported: k(OH+CF3CH2OCHO) = (7.7 +/- 0.9) x 10(-14) and k(Cl+CF3CH2OCHO) = (6.3 +/- 1.9) x 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The rate coefficientforthe Cl-atom reaction with CHF2CH2F is derived as k(Cl+CHF2CH2F) = (3.0 +/- 0.9) x 10(-14) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) at 298 K. The error limits include 3sigma from the statistical data analyses as well as the errors in the rate coefficients of the reference compounds employed. The tropospheric lifetimes of the hydrofluoroethers are estimated to be short tau(OH)((CF3)(2)CHOCH3) similar to 100 days| tau(OH)(CF3CH2OCH2CF3) similar to 80 days| tau(OH)(CF3CF2CH2OCH3) similar to 20 days| and tau(OH)(CHF2CF2CH2OCH3) similar to 14 days| and their global warming potentials are small compared to CFC-11. 6456,2004,2,4,Sulfur pollution suppression of the wetland methane source in the 20th and 21st centuries,Natural wetlands form the largest source of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. Emission of this powerful greenhouse gas from wetlands is known to depend on climate| with increasing temperature and rainfall both expected to increase methane emissions. This study| combining our field and controlled environment manipulation studies in Europe and North America| reveals an additional control: an emergent pattern of increasing suppression of methane (CH4) emission from peatlands with increasing sulfate (SO42-S) 4 deposition| within the range of global acid deposition. We apply a model of this relationship to demonstrate the potential effect of changes in global sulfate deposition from 1960 to 2080 on both northern peatland and global wetland CH4 emissions. We estimate that sulfur pollution may currently counteract climate-induced growth in the wetland source| reducing CH4 emissions by approximate to15 Tg or 8% smaller than it would be in the absence of global acid deposition. Our findings suggest that by 2030 sulfur pollution may be sufficient to reduce CH4 emissions by 26 Tg or 15% of the total wetland source| a proportion as large as other components of the CH4 budget that have until now received far greater attention. We conclude that documented increases in atmospheric CH4 concentration since the late 19th century are likely due to factors other than the global warming of wetlands. 6466,2004,2,4,Summer 2003 maximum and minimum daily temperatures over a 3300 m altitudinal range in the Alps,The summer of 2003 was extremely hot in Western Europe and in the Alps. Here I analyse the role of elevation in the temperatures measured in 2003| and I compare daytime and nighttime values. Records from 16 stations at varying elevations show that| during the night| there was a significant correlation between heat and altitude. Hot nighttime temperatures were particularly frequent at low elevation. The frequency of unusually hot daytime highs was not correlated with altitude| but with the average degree of insolation of the sites. Compared to long-term averaged values (1961-1990) the temperatures were hottest in the normally sunniest sites. The unusual nature of the 2003 heat wave was not the absolute daily extreme values| but the lack of cool temperatures and the large number of very warm days. Averaged over all climate stations| half of the days in summer were hotter than the 90th percentile (climate normals 1961-1990)| with up to 72% at some stations. 6327,2004,5,3,Summer temperature and summer monsoon history on the Tibetan plateau during the last 400 years recorded by tree rings,Global circulation models predict an increase of summer monsoon precipitation in High Asia as a consequence of global warming. The shortness of available meteorological records requires the reconstruction of past climate variability. However| high-resolution climate proxy records from the Tibetan plateau are scarce and of limited spatial representativeness. Here we present first evidence of increased summer monsoon intensity from the Tibetan plateau based on reconstructions of late summer ( August and September) temperature and rainfall from a network of 22 maximum latewood density (MLD) chronologies of high-elevation conifer sites. After 1980| a decrease in MLD points to an increase of Indian summer monsoon activity ( in southern Tibet unprecedented during the past 350 years. 6735,2004,2,4,Summer warming and increased winter snow cover affect Sphagnum fuscum growth| structure and production in a sub-arctic bog,Sphagnum mosses form a major component of northern peatlands| which are expected to experience substantially higher increases in temperature and winter precipitation than the global average. Sphagnum may play an important role in the responses of the global carbon cycle to climate change. We investigated the responses of summer length growth| carpet structure and production in Sphagnum fuscum to experimentally induced changes in climate in a sub-arctic bog. Thereto| we used open-top chambers (OTCs) to create six climate scenarios including changes in summer temperatures| and changes in winter snow cover and spring temperatures. In winter| the OTCs doubled the snow thickness| resulting in 0.5-2.8degreesC higher average air temperatures. Spring air temperatures in OTCs increased by 1.0degreesC. Summer warming had a maximum effect of 0.9degreesC| while vapor pressure deficit was not affected. The climate manipulations had strong effects on S. fuscum. Summer warming enhanced the length increment by 42-62%| whereas bulk density decreased. This resulted in a trend (P<0.10) of enhanced biomass production. Winter snow addition enhanced dry matter production by 33%| despite the fact that the length growth and bulk density did not change significantly. The addition of spring warming to snow addition alone did not significantly enhance this effect| but we may have missed part of the early spring growth. There were no interactions between the manipulations in summer and those in winter/spring| indicating that the effects were additive. Summer warming may in the long term negatively affect productivity through the adverse effects of changes in Sphagnum structure on moisture holding and transporting capacity. Moreover| the strong length growth enhancement may affect interactions with other mosses and vascular plants. Because winter snow addition enhanced the production of S. fuscum without affecting its structure| it may increase the carbon balance of northern peatlands. 6460,2004,5,4,Supercontinents and superplume events: distinguishing signals in the geologic record,Simultaneous supercontinent and superplume events may reinforce or cancel signals preserved in the geologic record. Alternatively| one signal may overwhelm the other. For instance| relatively low sea level during a 2.7-Ga superplume/supercontinent event may reflect direct hits of superplumes beneath the supercontinent. Although both supercontinent formation and superplume events occurred at 0.28| 1.9 and 2.7 Ga| global warming at these times indicates the dominance of superplume events in controlling climate. Enhanced deposition of black shales correlates with superplume events and with supercontinent breakup. Carbon isotopes in seawater| however| show positive excursions during supercontinent breakup at 2.2-2.1 and 0.8-0.6 Ga| but show mixed signals or no signal during other supercontinent or superplume events| probably due to negative feedbacks. Peaks in marine organism originations at 100| 280| and 480 Ma correlate with possible superplume events| whereas an overall decrease in origination rate in the early Paleozoic correlates with the growth of Pangea and destruction of shallow marine environments. Increased production rates of juvenile crust correlate with formation of supercontinents and with superplume events. There may be two types of superplume events: catastrophic events| which are short-lived (<100 My) and shielding events| which are long-lived (>200 My). Catastrophic events may be triggered by slab avalanches in the mantle and may be responsible for episodic crustal growth. Shielding superplume events| caused by shielding of the mantle from subduction by supercontinents| are responsible for relatively small additions of malic components to the continents and may lead to supercontinent breakup. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2004,2004,4,4,Superensemble prediction of regional precipitation over Korea,Seasonal precipitation at the decadal time scale is predicted using the downscaling super ensemble (DSE) method| which is developed by combining the superensemble procedure with a statistical downscaling method in this study. The multimodel data utilized are the long-term integration of six atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and the downscaling method is based on the singular value decomposition with the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) truncation to correct the systematic bias in the dynamic models. Interestingly| even though prediction skill in the training period is increased with increasing number of AOGCMs used| the skill is often decreased in the independent period. It is found that prediction skill in the independent period continues to rise when we use an optimal combination of predictors. The optimum combination used in constructing the superensemble model is the super-3 ensemble| which is a combination of three AOGCMs (CCCma| CSIRO| and NCAR) among the six AOGCMs used in this study. In general| the first four EOFs of sea-level pressure (SLP) in the super-3 ensemble are very similar to those of the observed SLP. The dynamic link between Korean winter precipitation and East Asian monsoon circulation in the super-3 ensemble is similar to that of the observed indicating that the super-3 ensemble realistically simulates the circulations in the East Asian monsoon region. The cross-validation for the prediction of the super-3 ensemble shows that the correlation skill score is about 0.49| which is significant at the 5% level. The results provide hope for regional climate prediction in decadal time-scales using superensemble methods together with statistical downscaling. Copyright (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. 6563,2004,2,4,Taxonomic patterns of bleaching within a South African coral assemblage,In 1998| the Indian Ocean coral reefs suffered a severe and extensive mass bleaching event. The thermal tolerances of corals were exceeded and their photosynthetic symbionts (zooxanthellae) lost. Mortalities of up to 90% were recorded on the reefs of Seychelles| Maldives| Kenya and Tanzania. South African coral reefs were among the few that largely escaped the 1998 mass bleaching event| but may be threatened in the future if global warming increases. This study assessed the extent of coral bleaching and partial recovery at Sodwana Bay| South Africa during 2000 and 2001. Bleaching levels in this study varied over the course of a year| which suggested that seasonally varying parameters such as sea temperature were the most likely cause of bleaching. Bleaching levels were highest at the shallowest site. However| these bleaching levels were very low in comparison with those of reefs elsewhere in the Indian Ocean. The greater volume of water over the relatively deeper reefs of Sodwana Bay may have protected the reefs from severe bleaching. Field measurements on the three reefs indicated that| although the reefs at Sodwana Bay are still healthy| bleaching increased from <1% in 1998 to 5-10% in 2002. Bleaching occurred in 26 coral genera. The Alcyonacea were highly susceptible to bleaching| especially Sarcophyton sp. Among the hard corals| Montipora spp. were the species most susceptible to bleaching. The sensitivity of these genera to early and slight increases in temperature suggests that they can forewarn of a possible greater bleaching event. In contrast| the coral genera Turbinaria and Stylophora were most resistant to bleaching. 1977,2004,4,3,Tedlar bag sampling technique for vertical profiling of carbon dioxide through the atmospheric boundary layer with high precision and accuracy,Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas other than water vapor| and its modulation by the biosphere is of fundamental importance to our understanding of global climate change. We have developed a new technique for vertical profiling of CO2 and meteorological parameters through the atmospheric boundary layer and well into the free troposphere. Vertical profiling of CO2 mixing ratios allows estimates of landscape-scale fluxes characteristic of similar to100 km(2) of an ecosystem. The method makes use of a powered parachute as a platform and a new Tedlar bag air sampling technique. Air samples are returned to the ground where measurements of CO2 mixing ratios are made with high precision (less than or equal to0.1%) and accuracy (less than or equal to0.1%) using a conventional nondispersive infrared analyzer. Laboratory studies are described that characterize the accuracy and precision of the bag sampling technique and that measure the diffusion coefficient of CO2 through the Tedlar bag wall. The technique has been applied in field studies in the proximity of two AmeriFlux sites| and results are compared with tower measurements of CO2. 6589,2004,2,4,Temperature sensitivity of nitrogen productivity for Scots pine and Norway spruce,Environmental conditions control physiological processes in plants and thus their growth. The predicted global warming is expected to accelerate tree growth. However| the growth response is a complex function of several processes with both direct and indirect effects. To analyse this problem we have used needle nitrogen productivity| which is an aggregate parameter for production of new foliage. Data on needle dry matter| production| and nitrogen content in needles of Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce ( Picea abies) from a wide range of climatic conditions were collected and needle nitrogen productivities| defined as dry matter production of needles per unit of nitrogen in the needle biomass| were calculated. Our results show that the nitrogen productivity for spruce is insensitive to temperature. However| for pine| temperature affects both the magnitude of nitrogen productivity at low needle biomass and the response to self-shading but the temperature response is small at the high end of needle biomass. For practical applications it may be sufficient to use a species-specific nitrogen productivity that is independent of temperature. Because temperature affects tree growth indirectly as well as through soil processes| the effects of temperature change on tree growth and ecosystem carbon storage should mainly be derived from effects on nitrogen availability through changes in nitrogen mineralization. In addition| this paper summarises data on dry matter| production and nitrogen content of needles of conifers along a temperature gradient. 6603,2004,4,4,Temporal and spatial variations of shallow subsurface temperature as a record of lateral variations in groundwater flow,In the present paper it is shown how profiles consisting of closely spaced (less than or equal to10 m) temperature measurements at shallow depth| obtained at several instances during one season| provide a detailed record of lateral variations in vertical groundwater flow. This is illustrated by a field study around the Peel Boundary Fault zone that cuts through the unconsolidated| siliciclastic deposits that occur in the southeastern part of Netherlands. This regionally important fault forms at many locations a strong barrier to horizontal groundwater flow and therefore induces complex groundwater flow patterns. Temperature anomalies (over 2degreesC) are observed over short distances. These anomalies reverse over the season. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater flow and heat transport demonstrates how the temporal and spatial variations of subsurface temperature are the result of the interaction between seasonal fluctuations in surface temperature and spatial variations in groundwater flow. In addition to the horizontal profiles| temperature-depth profiles obtained in groundwater observation wells were used to constrain the larger-scale characteristics of the groundwater flow system. In order to simulate the observed geothermal patterns it appeared to be essential to account for the long-term changes in surface temperature. Although groundwater temperature data are commonly used to constrain groundwater flow fields on regional scale or to calculate vertical groundwater velocities at point locations beneath small streams| the present study is one of the first to integrate these different scales and incorporate the impact of recent climate change. 6640,2004,2,4,Temporal variation in the demography of the clonal epiphyte Tillandsia brachycaulos (Bromeliaceae) in the Yucatan Peninsula| Mexico,Epiphytes are one of the most ubiquitous elements of tropical forest canopies| including seasonally dry tropical forests. Given the temporal variation in weather conditions in the latter| epiphyte populations may be subject to wide temporal variation in seedling recruitment| reproductive success| vegetative propagation and mortality rate. In this study| we use a 3-y demographic data set for Tillandsia brachycaulos to project its long-term population dynamics through the use of average and periodic matrices| as well as stochastic simulations. The results show that demographic behaviour varied over the 3 years of study| apparently in relation to rainfall. The first 2 years yielded a low lambda value (0.79 and 0.80 - although only the former was significantly lower than unity)| while the third year resulted in a lambda = 1.08 (not significantly different from 1.0). When incorporating this demographic variation in an average matrix| a periodic matrix and stochastic simulations| the resulting overall lambda was below unity in all three cases. The projections of the stochastic simulations suggest that the population would be able to persist in the long run only if the frequency of 'good' years (defined here as those with an August rainfall above 200 mm) was above 0.6| which appears unlikely given that global warming might result in a lower frequency of rainy years in tropical dry forests. 6560,2004,5,3,The 100 000-yr cycle in tropical SST| greenhouse forcing| and climate sensitivity,The key scientific uncertainty in the global warming debate is the equilibrium climate sensitivity. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models predict a wide range of equilibrium climate sensitivities| with a consequently large spread of societal implications. Comparison of models with instrumental data has not been able to reduce the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. An alternative way to gauge equilibrium climate sensitivity is to use paleoclimatic data. Two recent advances| the development and application of proxy recorders of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and the synchronization of the deep-sea and Antarctic ice-core time scales| make it possible to directly relate past changes in tropical SST to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. The strong correspondence of a proxy SST record from the eastern equatorial Pacific and the Vostok CO2 record suggests that varying atmospheric carbon dioxide is the dominant control on tropical climate on orbital time scales. This effect is especially pronounced at the 100 000-yr cycle. Calibration of the CO2 influence via tropical SST variability indicates a tropical climate sensitivity of 4.4degrees-5.6degreesC ( errors estimated at +/-1.0degreesC) for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. This result suggests that the equilibrium response of tropical climate to atmospheric CO2 changes is likely to be similar to the upper end of available global predictions from coupled models. 6576,2004,4,4,The angular distribution of UV-B sky radiance under cloudy conditions: A comparison of measurements and radiative transfer calculations using a Fractal cloud model,In recent years| global warming concerns have focused attention on cloud radiative forcing and its accurate encapsulation in radiative transfer measurement and modeling programs. At present| this process is constrained by the dynamic movement and inhomogeneity of cloud structure. This study attempts to quantify the UV sky radiance distribution induced by a partial and overcast stratiform cloud field while addressing some of the inherent spatial and temporal errors resulting from cloud. For this purpose| high-quality azimuthally averaged 2-min measurements of erythemal UV-B sky radiance distribution were undertaken by a variable sky-view platform at Hobart| Australia (42.90degreesS| 147.33degreesE). Measurements were subsequently compared with Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations using both a multifractal and plane-parallel homogenous (PPH) cloud field. Data were also compared with several empirical parameterizations. Results at solar zenith angles of 30degrees and 50degrees show that for overcast conditions| the multifractal model is superior to the PPH model. For broken cloud conditions| the radiance measurements are biased toward higher instances of direct-beam interruption by cloud. This tends to smooth the near-sun sky radiance field whereas the multifractal model under the same conditions continues to exhibit the circumsolar effect| indicating that its performance may be still valid for radiation modeling. An empirical parameterization of the same multifractal model produced similar sky radiance profiles| warranting its use in radiative transfer models. 6641,2004,2,4,The atmospheric response to realistic Arctic sea ice anomalies in an AGCM during winter,The influence of realistic Arctic sea ice anomalies on the atmosphere during winter is investigated with version 3.6 of the Community Climate Model (CCM3.6). Model experiments are performed for the winters with the most (1982/83) and least (1995/96) Arctic ice coverage during 1979-99| when ice concentration estimates were available from satellites. The experiments consist of 50-member ensembles: using large ensembles proved critical to distinguish the signal from noise. The local response to ice anomalies over the subpolar seas of both the Atlantic and Pacific is robust and generally shallow with large upward surface heat fluxes (>100 W m(-2))| near-surface warming| enhanced precipitation| and below-normal sea level pressure where sea ice receded| and the reverse where the ice expanded. The large-scale response to reduced (enhanced) ice extent to the east (west) of Greenland during 1982/83 resembles the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) with a ridge over the poles and a trough at midlatitudes. The large-scale response was distinctly different in the Pacific| where ice extent anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk generate a wave train that extends downstream over North America but the wave train response is greatly diminished when the model is driven by ice concentration rather than ice extent anomalies. Comparing the AGCM response to observations suggests that the feedback of the ice upon the atmospheric circulation is positive (negative) in the Pacific (Atlantic) sector. The magnitude of the wintertime response to ice extent anomalies is modest| on the order of 20 m at 500 mb. However| the 500-mb height anomalies roughly double in strength over much of the Arctic when forced by ice concetration anomalies. Furthermore| the NAO-like response increases linearly with the aerial extent of the Atlantic ice anomalies and thus could be quite large if the ice edge retreats as a result of global warming. 6346,2004,2,4,The changing ecology of temperate coastal waters during a warming trend,In the temperate North Atlantic Ocean the ecological changes in coastal waters associated with a warming period in the 1930s were compared with the past couple of decades when the North Atlantic Oscillation was also positive. Long-term monitoring data sets from Rhode Island and nearby coastal waters were used to identify trends in the recent warming period. During both events winter water temperatures warmed above a mean value of 2.9degreesC from 1degreesC to 3degreesC. There was no apparent trend in the annual salinity cycle correlated with the increased temperature. During both periods boreal species declined| southern species increased| and widespread declines in eelgrass occurred. Estuaries on the western Atlantic Ocean during the recent warming period had phytoplankton biomass during the winter-spring bloom decrease| zooplankton number increase| and nutrients remain elevated due to enhanced zooplankton grazing. Zooptankton numbers decreased in summer due to enhanced ctenophore predation. In these waters the loss of boreal demersal fish has been compensated by air increase in demersal decapods. The very large ecological changes caused by small increases in seasonal temperature provide an insight to the large alterations that may be associated with global warming. 6622,2004,3,2,The development of a non-fluorocarbon-based extruded polystyrene foam which contains a halogen-free blowing agent,This technology is concerned with a new type of extruded Polystyrene foam (XPS)| which gives high performance of thermal insulation without containing any fluorocarbons as a blowing agent. Avoiding such typically harmful materials will help solve global environmental problems like ozone layer depletion and global warming. Kaneka Corporation developed this technology for the first time in the world. As a blowing agent of this new XPS in place of fluorocarbons we adopted isobutane| an excellent green gas that helps prevent ozone layer depletion and global warming. However| there is a problem: it is difficult to Secure high performance of thermal insulation and flame retardation when isobutane is used. This originates from the fact that isobutane has a higher thermal conductivity than fluorocarbons| and is highly flammable. To overcome the former problem| we found a novel cell structure to secure high performance of thermal insulation| and we developed new technologies to control it. To solve the latter problem| namely securing flame retardation| we clarified the mechanism to Suppress combustion of isobutane| and developed a new flame retardation technology by the addition of specific compounds. As a result of a combination of these technologies| we were able to develop and commercialize a new XPS with high performance of thermal insulation. These technologies directly contribute to prevent adverse effects on the global environment such as ozone layer depletion and global warming| by not using fluorocarbons. And| in addition| these technologies indirectly but more greatly contribute to global warming prevention by the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions through a high effect of energy conservation as a thermal insulator. Therefore| the thermal insulator with these technologies is valuable for environmental protection. And as the needs for a material for better energy conservation will increase. the contribution of this technology will expand much more in the future. 1929,2004,4,4,The Earth Simulator: roles and impacts,The Earth Simulator Research Project started in March 2002 with the primary objective of producing reliable prediction data for global climate change. Within a couple of months after the start of operation| the Earth Simulator achieved an amazing performance of 35.86 Teraflops (about 90% of the peak performance of 40.96 Teraflops) in the Linpack benchmark test and| more surprisingly| 26.58 Teraflops for a typical application program of global atmospheric circulation model (called AFES) with a horizontal resolution of 10km. These facts ensure us that the real contribution of the Earth Simulator be far greater than originally expected. Undoubtedly| the Earth Simulator would work to make a paradigm shift in science| industry| and human thinking| as well as finding the best human's wisdom to keep a sustainable symbiotic relationship with nature. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6387,2004,3,4,The effect of blowing agent choice on energy use and global warming impact of a refrigerator,A study| comparing the effect of blowing agent selection on energy consumption and the life cycle climate performance (LCCP) of a typical European refrigerator is discussed. Energy consumption of prototype European-style refrigerators made with a foam formulation with UFC-245fa as the blowing agent was measured and compared with energy consumption of the same model as currently produced (using a foam with a pentane blend for the blowing agent). Results were used in a LCCP study| considering both direct and indirect climate impacts due to blowing agent emissions and energy consumption in manufacturing processes and over the life cycle of the refrigerator. An assumption is made that the refrigerator is built and used in the European market. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 6733,2004,2,4,The effect of heat stress on the survival of the rose grain aphid| Metopolophium dirhodum (Hemiptera : Aphididae),The rose grain aphid| Metopolophium dirhodum (Walker) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) is one of the three most important cereal aphid species in Europe. High temperature is detrimental for the survival of this species. Detailed experiments were conducted on the effect of high temperature (27| 28| 29| 30| 31| 31.5| 32.5| 33 and 34degreesC)| period of exposure (2| 3| 4| 6 and 8 h per day for 1| 2| 4| 6 days) and developmental stage (2nd| 3rd| 4th instar nymph and adult) on the survival of the aphid. The results show that all three factors significantly affect survival. Temperatures over 29degreesC for 8 h significantly reduced survival| which decreased generally as the temperature increased. The survival was inversely related to the period of exposure. Exposing aphids to 32.5degreesC for 4 h or longer significantly reduced survival. Mature aphids had a lower tolerance of high temperatures than nymphs. Periods of high temperature experienced by 4th instar and adult aphids can greatly affect their survival. The value of these results for forecasting and determining control thresholds| the effect of global warming on cereal aphid abundance and the dropping off behaviour of the aphids are discussed. 6559,2004,2,4,The effect of sea-ice extent in the North Atlantic on the stability of the thermohaline circulation in global warming experiments,Different climate models simulate different behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) under the same global warming scenario. We propose a plausible explanation for this and argue that a proper simulation of the present-day climate in the subpolar North Atlantic is important. This is illustrated using results from idealized global warming experiments| in which both the radiative forcing scenario and the model employed are the same| with the only major difference being the initial subpolar North Atlantic climate. The initial conditions are made progressively colder| with more extensive sea-ice cover in the northern North Atlantic. The key result is that starting from conditions which are too cold in the North Atlantic and with sea-ice that is too extensive leads to an MOC that is more stable to the radiative forcing. Furthermore| under considerably underestimated sea surface temperatures in subpolar regions. the MOC can even intensify. A reduction of freshwater flux associated with the reduction of sea-ice melt is shown to be important for such unusual behavior of the MOC. Other mechanisms are also considered| but not deemed as important in explaining published inter-model differences. 6676,2004,3,3,The effect on photochemical smog of converting the US fleet of gasoline vehicles to modern diesel vehicles,With the increased use of particle traps and nitrogen oxide ( NOx) control devices to reduce air pollution| "modern'' diesel vehicles are being encouraged over gasoline vehicles globally as a central method of slowing global warming. Data to date| though| suggest that the NO2: NO ratio from modern diesel may exceed that of gasoline| and it is difficult to reduce diesel NOx below gasoline NOx without increasing particle emissions. Here| it is calculated that| unless the diesel NO2: NO ratio and total NOx are reduced to those of gasoline| modern diesel| which should have lower hydrocarbon (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions than gasoline| may still enhance photochemical smog at the surface and aloft| on average| over the U. S. relative to gasoline. The reason is that vehicle-produced smog in the U. S. depends more on NOx and the NO2: NO ratio than on HCs or CO. It is also found that vehicle NOx controls may be more effective than NO2: NO ratio controls at reducing ozone. 6449,2004,2,4,The effects of climate change on the reproduction of coastal invertebrates,Environmental cues control or synchronize the reproductive cycle of many marine invertebrates. Of these environmental cues| photoperiod and temperature have been shown to moderate reproduction either individually or in combination. In addition| they may act directly or| in the case of photoperiod| set circannual clock mechanisms. These environmental cues may affect a number of reproductive parameters| including sex determination| gametogenesis and spawning. Gonadotrophic and spawning hormones appear to act as the transducers between the environment and the gamete| and limited evidence indicates that temperature and photoperiod can alter levels of these. Such processes occur in a range of estuarine invertebrates that constitute important components of the diets of overwintering birds. Global warming is likely to uncouple and alter the phase relationship between temperature and photoperiod and this is likely to have significant consequences for animals that develop gametes during the winter and spawn in the spring in temperate northern latitudes. Species that cue reproduction to photoperiod are likely to be particularly vulnerable. Although this is unlikely to lead to extinctions| it may cause local extirpations. However| this will depend on speed of adaptation to changing climate in relation to speed of climate change and the degree of mixing between populations across the range of the species. More likely will be significant impacts on fecundity| spawning success and recruitment| and this may have significant implications for overwintering birds of national and international importance| and| ultimately| on the conservation status of estuaries such as the Humber in the UK. 1966,2004,2,4,The effects of infrared loading and water table on soil energy fluxes in northern peatlands,Increased radiative forcing is an inevitable part of global climate change| yet little is known of its potential effects on the energy fluxes in natural ecosystems. To simulate the conditions of global warming| we exposed peat monoliths (depth| 0.6 m; surface area| 2.1 m(2)) from a bog and fen in northern Minnesota| USA| to three infrared (IR) loading (ambient| +45| and +90 W m(-2)) and three water table (-16| -20| and -29 cm in bog and -1| -10 and -18 cm in fen) treatments| each replicated in three mesocosm plots. Net radiation (Rn) and soil energy fluxes at the top| bottom| and sides of the mesocosms were measured in 1999| 5 years after the treatments had begun. Soil heat flux (G) increased proportionately with IR loading| comprising about 3%-8% of Rn. In the fen| the effect of IR loading on G was modulated by water table depth| whereas in the bog it was not. Energy dissipation from the mesocosms occurred mainly via vertical exchange with air| as well as with deeper soil layers through the bottom of the mesocosms| whereas lateral fluxes were 10-20-fold smaller and independent of IR loading and water table depth. The exchange with deeper soil layers was sensitive to water table depth| in contrast to G| which responded primarily to IR loading. The qualitative responses in the bog and fen were similar| but the fen displayed wider seasonal variation and greater extremes in soil energy fluxes. The differences of G in the bog and fen are attributed to differences in the reflectance in the long waveband as a function of vegetation type| whereas the differences in soil heat storage may also depend on different soil properties and different water table depth at comparable treatments. These data suggest that the ecosystem-dependent controls over soil energy fluxes may provide an important constraint on biotic response to climate change. 6352,2004,2,4,The environment and the eye,The use of the 'environment' has become extended to include population changes| the 'domestic' environment| and cultural factors| in addition to physical influences such as global warming and ultraviolet radiation (UVR). The likely effects of each of these classes of agents on the eye and rates of blindness are illustrated by reference mainly to cataract and trachoma-two of the commonest causes of the world blindness. Trachoma infection and its blinding consequences could be eventually eliminated by environmental measures and changes in behaviour. While the threat of increased incidence of blindness from cataract due to ozone depletion and greater solar UVR has receded| global warming may become a factor in the early onset and rapid progression of cataract. Although we continue to need research into the physical and biological causes of cataract| elimination of world blindness will only be achieved when we understand the conceptual and cultural environments which are inhibiting the acceptance of cataract surgery. 6349,2004,3,3,The failure of eco-efficiency to guarantee sustainability: Future challenges for industrial ecology,Western industrialized societies are inberently unsustainable in their present form because they depend almost exclusively on a finite supply of nonrenewable minerals and fossil fuels. In addition| the resulting wastes cause various environmental problems ranging from widespread ecosystem disruptions to global warming. The most common response to these problems has been to promote technological improvements in eco-efficiency| which Welford defined as "adding maximum value with minimum resource use and minimum pollution." Although constructive| improvements in eco-efficiency alone will not guarantee sustainability of industrialized societies because the limited supplies of nonrenewable minerals cannot be extended indefinitely by recycling and substitution| and a transition to renewable and nuclear energy sources would result in significant negative environmental impacts| particularly if deployed on a large scale. In addition| according to the second law of thermodynamics| industrial production technologies have inherently unavoidable environmental impacts. Finally| any hard-won improvements in eco-efficiency will soon be negated if growth in population and consumption is allowed to continue. Consequently| long-term industrial sustainability can be achieved only through a transition to a steady-state economy where the total throughput of matter-energy is kept at a constant and sustainable level. This requires not only improvements in eco-efficiency but also a reassessment of fundamental societal values that erroneously equate material consumption and economic growth with well-being and happiness. (C) 2004 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog| 23: 264-270| 2004 6702,2004,3,3,The geographic distribution of potential risks posed by industrial toxic emissions in the US,TheToxics-Release Inventory (TRI)| compiled annually by the EPA| has emerged as the most comprehensive database on industrial toxic emissions in the U.S. While various risk indicators and pollutant weighting methods have been developed to|compare TRI emissions| these measures are rarely used to examine the geography of potential risks posed by toxic emissions at the national scale. This article provides a geographic perspective on the evaluation of industrial pollution by exploring the spatial distribution of the potential health and environmental impacts of TRI emissions across the U.S. Six indicators of potential risk based on the impact benchmarking concept are used to characterize specific human health and environmental concerns: carcinogenic toxicity| noncarcinogenic toxicity| ozone depletion| global warming| smog formation and acid rain formation. Air emission data from the 2000 TRI are used to analyze the six potential impacts at the state level. The objectives are to: (a) examine and compare spatial variations in the distribution of these adverse impacts across the U.S.; and (b) identify the states facing the highest health and environmental risk from industrial toxic releases. The effect of differences in state area and population size on the distribution of the six potential impacts and state rankings for each category are also investigated. While Ohio and Texas receive the highest ranks in all risk categories| Louisiana and West Virginia| represent the most "hazardous" states when emissions are weighted by state area and population. The results demonstrate the need to examine the geographic variability of different risk indicators that are used to evaluate TRI emissions| at multiple scales. 2036,2004,2,4,The global stationary wave response to climate change in a coupled GCM,The stationary wave response to global climate change in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's R30 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM is studied. An ensemble of climate change simulations that use a standard prescription for time-dependent increases of greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol concentrations is compared to a multiple-century control simulation with these constituents fixed at preindustrial levels. The primary response to climate change is to zonalize the atmospheric circulation| that is| to reduce the amplitude of the stationary waves in all seasons. This zonalization is particularly strong in the boreal summer over the Tropics. In January| changes in the stationary waves resemble that of an El Nino| and all months exhibit an El Nino-like increase of precipitation in the central tropical Pacific. The dynamics of the stationary wave changes are studied with a linear stationary wave model| which is shown to simulate the stationary wave response to climate change remarkably well. The linear model is used to decompose the response into parts associated with changes to the zonal-mean basic state and with changes to the zonally asymmetric "forcings'' such as diabatic heating and transient eddy fluxes. The decomposition reveals that at least as much of the climate change response is accounted for by the change to the zonal-mean basic state as by the change to the zonally asymmetric forcings. For the January response in the Pacific-North American sector| it is also found that the diabatic heating forcing contribution dominates the climate change response but is significantly cancelled and phase shifted by the transient eddy forcing. The importance of the zonal mean and of the diabatic heating forcing contrasts strongly with previous linear stationary wave models of the El Nino| despite the similarity of the January stationary wave response to El Nino. In particular| in El Nino| changes to the zonal-mean circulation contribute little to the stationary wave response| and the transient eddy forcing dominates. The conclusions from the linear stationary wave model apparently contradict previous findings on the stationary wave response to climate change response in a coarse-resolution version of this model. 1962,2004,2,4,The gypsy moth life stage model: landscape-wide estimates of gypsy moth establishment using a multi-generational phenology model,A multi-generational model of gypsy moth phenology was developed from existing literature and used to assess the risk of establishment of this exotic pest across North America based on the suitability of 4457 locations in satisfying the temperature requirements for seasonal development. Approximately 595 million hectares of North America is estimated to be climatically suitable for gypsy moth establishment. Limits to the potential range exist in the southern United States because of limits to diapause development| and in northern Canada because of slower prediapause and larval development. A 1.5 degreesC increase in mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures| as might occur with global climate change| would result in a range expansion in the north| a range contraction in the south| and a net increase in range of approximately 16%. The model is described and the probable limitations to establishment are discussed. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6671,2004,4,3,The impact of cloud feedbacks on Arctic climate under greenhouse forcing,The simulation of Arctic cloud cover and the sensitivity of Arctic climate to cloud changes are investigated using an atmosphere-mixed-layer ocean GCM (GENESIS2). The model is run with and without changes in three-dimensional cloud fraction under 2 x CO2 radiative forcing. This model was chosen in part because of its relatively successful representation of modern Arctic cloud cover| a trait attributable to the parameterized treatment of mixed-phase microphysics. Simulated modern Arctic cloud fraction is insensitive to model biases in surface boundary conditions (SSTs and sea ice distribution)| but the modeled Arctic climate is sensitive to high-frequency cloud variability. When forced with increased CO2 the model generally simulates more (less) vertically integrated cloudiness in high (low) latitudes. In the simulation without cloud feedbacks| cloud fraction is fixed at its modern control value at all grid points and all levels while CO2 is doubled. Compared with this fixed-cloud experiment| the simulated cloud changes enhance greenhouse warming at all latitudes| accounting for one- third of the global warming signal. This positive feedback is most pronounced in the Arctic| where approximately 40% of the warming is due to cloud changes. The strong cloud feedback in the Arctic is caused not only by local processes but also by cloud changes in lower latitudes| where positive top-of-the-atmosphere cloud radiative forcing anomalies are larger. The extra radiative energy gained in lower latitudes is transported dynamically to the Arctic via moist static energy flux convergence. The results presented here demonstrate the importance of remote impacts from low and midlatitudes for Arctic climate change. 1939,2004,2,3,The impact of global climate change on tropical forest biodiversity in Amazonia,Aim To model long-term trends in plant species distributions in response to predicted changes in global climate. Location Amazonia. Methods The impacts of expected global climate change on the potential and realized distributions of a representative sample of 69 individual Angiosperm species in Amazonia were simulated from 1990 to 2095. The climate trend followed the HADCM2GSa1 scenario| which assumes an annual 1% increase of atmospheric CO2 content with effects mitigated by sulphate forcing. Potential distributions of species in one-degree grid cells were modelled using a suitability index and rectilinear envelope based on bioclimate variables. Realized distributions were additionally limited by spatial contiguity with| and proximity to| known record sites. A size-structured population model was simulated for each cell in the realized distributions to allow for lags in response to climate change| but dispersal was not included. Results In the resulting simulations| 43% of all species became non-viable by 2095 because their potential distributions had changed drastically| but there was little change in the realized distributions of most species| owing to delays in population responses. Widely distributed species with high tolerance to environmental variation exhibited the least response to climate change| and species with narrow ranges and short generation times the greatest. Climate changed most in north-east Amazonia while the best remaining conditions for lowland moist forest species were in western Amazonia. Main conclusions To maintain the greatest resilience of Amazonian biodiversity to climate change as modelled by HADCM2GSa1| highest priority should be given to strengthening and extending protected areas in western Amazonia that encompass lowland and montane forests. 6325,2004,4,2,The impact of humidity above stratiform clouds on indirect aerosol climate forcing,Some of the global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases is offset by increased reflection of solar radiation by clouds with smaller droplets that form in air polluted with aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei(1). The resulting cooling tendency| termed the indirect aerosol forcing| is thought to be comparable in magnitude to the forcing by anthropogenic CO2| but it is difficult to estimate because the physical processes that determine global aerosol and cloud populations are poorly understood(2). Smaller cloud droplets not only reflect sunlight more effectively| but also inhibit precipitation| which is expected to result in increased cloud water(3|4). Such an increase in cloud water would result in even more reflective clouds| further increasing the indirect forcing. Marine boundary-layer clouds polluted by aerosol particles| however| are not generally observed to hold more water(5-7). Here we simulate stratocumulus clouds with a fluid dynamics model that includes detailed treatments of cloud microphysics and radiative transfer. Our simulations show that the response of cloud water to suppression of precipitation from increased droplet concentrations is determined by a competition between moistening from decreased surface precipitation and drying from increased entrainment of overlying air. Only when the overlying air is humid or droplet concentrations are very low does sufficient precipitation reach the surface to allow cloud water to increase with droplet concentrations. Otherwise| the response of cloud water to aerosol-induced suppression of precipitation is dominated by enhanced entrainment of overlying dry air. In this scenario| cloud water is reduced as droplet concentrations increase| which diminishes the indirect climate forcing. 6734,2004,3,2,The impact of regulations on automotive manufacturing,The automobile is still the favored means of locomotion in Europe. Easy to use and a freedom satisfier make it indispensable in our daily lives. And yet the car is at the same time accused of playing a major role in atmospheric pollution and global warming of the earth by the greenhouse effect| being the main source of harmful noise and danger| and thus obliging lawmakers to react and make it evolve under regulatory pressure. The purpose of this article is to determine the current situation and posture in terms of law and regulations concerning it and to describe the solutions offered by steel.
1994,2004,2,4,The impacts of human activities on the water-land environment of the Shiyang River basin| an arid region in northwest China,The Shiyang River basin is a typical interior river basin that faces water shortage and environmental deterioration in the and northwest of China. Due to its arid climate| limited water resources and some inappropriate water-related human activities| the area has developed serious loss of vegetation| and gradual soil salinization and desertification| which have greatly impeded the sustainable development of agriculture and life in this region. In this paper| the impacts of human activities on the water-soil environment in Shiyang River basin are analysed in terms of precipitation| runoff in branches of the river| inflow into lower reaches| water conveyance efficiency of the canal system and irrigation water use efficiency in the field| replenishment and exploitation of groundwater resources| soil salinization| vegetation cover and the speed of desertification. The results show that human activities and global climate change have no significant influence on the precipitation| but the total annual runoff in eight branch rivers showed a significant decrease over the years. The proportion of water use in the upper and middle reaches compared to the lower reach was increased from 1:0.57 in the 1960s| to 1:0.27 in the 1970s and 1:0.09 in the 1990s. A reduction of about 74% in the river inflow to the lower reaches and a 15-m drop in the groundwater table have occurred during the last four decades. Strategies for improving the water-soil environment of the basin| such as the protection of the water resources of the Qilian Mountains| sustainable use of water resources| maintenance of the balance between land and water resources| development of water-saving agriculture| diverting of water from other rivers and control of soil desertification| are proposed. The objective of this paper is to provide guidelines for reconstruction of the sustainable water management and development of agriculture in this region. 6391,2004,2,3,The influence of ocean convection patterns on high-latitude climate projections,The mean state and variability of deep convection in the ocean influence the North Atlantic climate. Using an ensemble experiment with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model| it is shown that cooling and subdued warming areas can occur over the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent landmasses under global warming. Different "present-day" convection patterns in the Greenland-Iceland-Norway (GIN) Sea result in different future surface-air temperature changes. At higher latitudes| the more effective positive sea ice feedback increases the likelihood of changes in convection causing a regional cooling that is larger than the warming brought about by the enhanced greenhouse effect. The modeled freshening of deep ocean layers in the North Atlantic in a time period preceding a reorganization of GIN Sea convection is consistent with recent observations. Low-frequency internal variability in the ocean model has relatively little impact on the response patterns. 2065,2004,2,4,The influence of the global climate change on the forest ecosystems in the low tatras Mts,The paper presents the results of possible regional effects of global climate change on the tree species composition of mountain forest ecosystems. Our model area has been represented by the valleys: Vajskova and Lomnista in Low Tatras Mts region. The suitability of the current and future changed climatic conditions for particular species has been assessed by means of the analysis of the bioclimatic area of each examined tree species. The analysis has been done for the tree species as follows: Norway spruce (Picea abies)| silver fir (Abies alba)| European beech (Fagus sylvatica)| mountain pine (Pinus mugo)| sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus)| European ash (Fraxinus excelsior)| European larch (Larix decidua)| mountain ash (Sorbus aucuparia) and cembra pine (Pinus cembra). The results hint at the possibility of considerable changes in the tree composition of mountain forests in the future. The climatic changes will probably have a negative impact primarily on silver fir| Norway spruce and mountain pine - important commercial and stand building species| The effects of the climatic changes are also expected on other species. 6632,2004,2,4,The intensification and shift of the annual North Atlantic Oscillation in a global warming scenario simulation,The impact of global warming on the annual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated with a global warming scenario simulation of the ECHAM4/OPYC3 coupled general circulation model. It is shown that the annual meridional pressure gradient over the North Atlantic is significantly strengthened| and the two centers of action of the NAO| the Icelandic low and the Azores high| are intensified and shifted northeastward by 10degrees to 20degrees in latitude and 30degrees to 40degrees in longitude in the global warming scenario. The shift of the centers of action leads to a failure in capturing the NAO change with the traditional definition of the NAO index. A modified index is introduced that allows for this shift| and exhibits a tendency toward the positive phase and an enhancement of its intensity. The intensification of Icelandic low is tied up with zonal mean state change| and the strengthened Azores high is related to the stationary wave change. The shift of the centers of action of the NAO is associated with the stationary wave change. 6491,2004,3,3,The lifetime of CFC substitutes studied by a network trained with chaotic mapping modified genetic algorithm and DFT calculations,The hydrohaloalkanes have attracted much attention as potential substitutes of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that deplete the ozone layer and lead to great high global warming. Having a short atmospheric lifetime is very important for the potential substitutes that may also induce ozone depletion and yield high global warming gases to be put in use. Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) studies were presented for their lifetimes aided by the quantum chemistry parameters including net charges| Mulliken overlaps| E-HOMO and E-LUMO based on the density functional theory (DFT) at B3PW91 level| and the C-H bond dissociation energy based on AMI calculations. Outstanding features of the logistic mapping| a simple chaotic system| especially the inherent ability to search the space of interest exhaustively have been utilized. The chaotic mapping aided genetic algorithm artificial neural network training scheme (CGANN) showed better performance than the conventional genetic algorithm ANN training when the structure of the data set was not favorable. The lifetimes of HFCs and HCs appeared to be greatly dependent on their energies of the highest occupied molecular orbitals. The perference of the RMSRE comparing to RMSE as objective function of ANN training was better for the samples of interest with relatively short lifetimes. C2H6 and C3H8 as potential green substitutes of CFCs present relatively short lifetimes. 6714,2004,3,4,The parable of Green Mountain: Ascension island| ecosystem construction and ecological fitting,Aims To use the ecosystem on Green Mountain| Ascension Island| to illustrate aspects of ecosystem construction and function as well as possible mitigation of human caused global environmental change. Location Ascension Island| tropical south Atlantic. Main conclusions The cloud forest on Green Mountain is a man-made system that has produced a tropical forest without any coevolution between its constituent species. This has implications for the way we think about ecosystems and provides a striking example of Janzen's idea of 'ecological fitting'. This system provides ecosystem services| such as carbon sequestration| and illustrates the possible role of man-made ecosystems in the mitigation of global warming. 6727,2004,3,3,The possibility of carbonyl fluoride as a new CVD chamber cleaning gas,Carbonyl fluoride (COF2) has been investigated as an alternative gas for plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) chamber cleaning in order to reduce greenhouse gases emitted from the cleaning process in semiconductor manufacturing. The cleaning performance of COF2 and the environmental impact of its exhaust gases were evaluated using an experimental plasma tool. The results indicated that the cleaning performance of COF2 was equivalent to that of conventional C2F6. Furthermore| it was confirmed that the use of COF2 would enable the reduction of global warming emissions by over 95% relative to the use of C2F6| and thus COF2 is considered to be a promising alternative cleaning gas. (C) 2004 The Electrochemical Society. 6334,2004,4,5,The possible connection between ionization in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and low level clouds,Recent analysis of monthly mean cloud data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project uncovered a strong correlation between low cloud and the cosmic ray flux for extensive regions of the Earth. Additional data have been recently released covering the period up to September 2001 with which we have made a new study of the geographical variation of the correlation between low cloud and predicted ionization level front cosmic rays at an altitude of 2 km. When analysed globally| we find that the correlations do not correspond to the latitude variation of cosmic ray flux and they are not field significant. Nonetheless they appear to be marginally field Significant over broad latitude and longitude bands with a peak positive correlation at 50 degrees North and South and a tendency to negative correlation at lower latitudes. The correlation is strongest over the North and South Atlantic. Several of these features are consistent with the predictions of the electroscavenging process. We use a simple model to calculate the climatic impact should the correlation be confirmed. We show that. under the most favorable conditions| a reduction in low cloud cover since the late 19th century| combined with the direct forcing by solar irradiance can explain a significant part of the global warming over the Past century. but not all. However. thiS computation assumes that there is no feedback or changes in cloud at other levels. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6674,2004,3,3,The potential to mitigate global warming with no-tillage management is only realized when practised in the long term,No-tillage (NT) management has been promoted as a practice capable of offsetting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because of its ability to sequester carbon in soils. However| true mitigation is only possible if the overall impact of NT adoption reduces the net global warming potential (GWP) determined by fluxes of the three major biogenic GHGs (i.e. CO2| N2O| and CH4). We compiled all available data of soil-derived GHG emission comparisons between conventional tilled (CT) and NT systems for humid and dry temperate climates. Newly converted NT systems increase GWP relative to CT practices| in both humid and dry climate regimes| and longer-term adoption (>10 years) only significantly reduces GWP in humid climates. Mean cumulative GWP over a 20-year period is also reduced under continuous NT in dry areas| but with a high degree of uncertainty. Emissions of N2O drive much of the trend in net GWP| suggesting improved nitrogen management is essential to realize the full benefit from carbon storage in the soil for purposes of global warming mitigation. Our results indicate a strong time dependency in the GHG mitigation potential of NT agriculture| demonstrating that GHG mitigation by adoption of NT is much more variable and complex than previously considered| and policy plans to reduce global warming through this land management practice need further scrutiny to ensure success. 6642,2004,4,3,The relative importance of solar and anthropogenic forcing of climate change between the Maunder Minimum and the present,The climate during the Maunder Minimum is compared with current conditions in GCM simulations that include a full stratosphere and parameterized ozone response to solar spectral irradiance variability and trace gas changes. The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Climate/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM) coupled to a q-flux/mixed-layer model is used for the simulations| which begin in 1500 and extend to the present. Experiments were made to investigate the effect of total versus spectrally varying solar irradiance changes; spectrally varying solar irradiance changes on the stratospheric ozone/climate response with both preindustrial and present trace gases; and the impact on climate and stratospheric ozone of the preindustrial trace gases and aerosols by themselves. The results showed that 1) the Maunder Minimum cooling relative to today was primarily associated with reduced anthropogenic radiative forcing| although the solar reduction added 40% to the overall cooling. There is no obvious distinguishing surface climate pattern between the two forcings. 2) The global and tropical response was greater than 1degreesC| in a model with a sensitivity of 1.2degreesC (W m(-2))(-1). To reproduce recent low-end estimates would require a sensitivity one-fourth as large. 3) The global surface temperature change was similar when using the total and spectral irradiance prescriptions| although the tropical response was somewhat greater with the former| and the stratospheric response greater with the latter. 4) Most experiments produce a relative negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO) during the Maunder Minimum| with both solar and anthropogenic forcing equally capable| associated with the tropical cooling and relative poleward Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux refraction. 5) A full stratosphere appeared to be necessary for the negative AO/NAO phase| as was the case with this model for global warming experiments| unless the cooling was very large| while the ozone response played a minor role and did not influence surface temperature significantly. 6) Stratospheric ozone was most affected by the difference between present-day and preindustrial atmospheric composition and chemistry| with increases in the upper and lower stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum. While the estimated UV reduction led to ozone decreases| this was generally less important than the anthropogenic effect except in the upper midstratosphere| as judged by two different ozone photochemistry schemes. 7) The effect of the reduced solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone and on climate was similar in Maunder Minimum and current atmospheric conditions. 1941,2004,2,3,The response of two Glomus mycorrhizal fungi and a fine endophyte to elevated atmospheric CO2| soil warming and drought,Plantago lanceolata plants were grown under various environmental conditions in association with the mycorrhizal fungi Glomus mosseae| G. caledonium and a fine endophyte either individually or all together. Using a time-course approach| we investigated the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO(2))| soil warming and drought and their interactions on root length colonized (RLC) by mycorrhizal fungi and extraradical mycorrhizal hyphal (EMH) production. Plant growth responded as would be expected to the environmental manipulations. There was no plant growth-independent effect of eCO(2) on mycorrhizal colonization; however| EMH production was stimulated by eCO(2)| i.e. there was increased partitioning of below-ground carbon to the EMH. Soil warming directly stimulated both percent RLC by the Glomus species and EMH density; soil warming did not affect RLC by the fine endophyte. Drought decreased percent RLC for the fine endophyte| but not for the Glomus species. The presence of one mycorrhizal fungus did not affect the response of another to the environmental variables. There was no evidence of any interactive effects of the environmental variables on RLC| but there were significant environmental interactions on EMH production. In particular| the stimulatory effects of eCO(2) and soil warming on EMH density were not additive. The results are discussed in terms of the soil carbon cycle| highlighting some crucial gaps in our knowledge. If future environmental changes affect mycorrhizal fungal turnover and respiration| then this could have important implications for the terrestrial carbon cycle. 6741,2004,3,2,The role of CO2 fixation in the strategy for mitigating global warming,Knowing high dependence on mankind on fossil fields we all intuitively feel how difficult it is to reduce CO2 emissions| despite that we also realise needs of decarbonization for mitigating global warming. According to IPCC second report stabilisation of CO2 concentration in the air at the level of 500 ppm| almost twice its level in pre-industrial era| requires stabilisation of CO2 emission by the end of 21st century and furthermore its substantial reduction in the long run. Then what efforts are really needed to realise the above emission scenario? There have been many attempts to answer this query| among which most known is IPCC SRES B1 scenario. It envisages the most plausible world energy structure attaining CO2 concentration at 550ppm around 2100. The key figures of this scenario are average growth rates of GDP and CO2/GDP. In 20th century the former was 3%/y and the latter 1.2%/y. As the result CO2 emission increased in the average rate of 1.8% per year (3.0 - 1.2=1.8).
6546,2004,2,3,The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming,A suite of simulations with the HadCM3LC coupled climate-carbon cycle model is used to examine the various forcings and feedbacks involved in the simulated precipitation decrease and forest dieback. Rising atmospheric CO2 is found to contribute 20% to the precipitation reduction through the physiological forcing of stomatal closure| with 80% of the reduction being seen when stomatal closure was excluded and only radiative forcing by CO2 was included. The forest dieback exerts two positive feedbacks on the precipitation reduction; a biogeophysical feedback through reduced forest cover suppressing local evaporative water recycling| and a biogeochemical feedback through the release of CO2 contributing to an accelerated global warming. The precipitation reduction is enhanced by 20% by the biogeophysical feedback| and 5% by the carbon cycle feedback from the forest dieback. This analysis helps to explain why the Amazonian precipitation reduction simulated by HadCM3LC is more extreme than that simulated in other GCMs; in the fully-coupled| climate-carbon cycle simulation| approximately half of the precipitation reduction in Amazonia is attributable to a combination of physiological forcing and biogeophysical and global carbon cycle feedbacks| which are generally not included in other GCM simulations of future climate change. The analysis also demonstrates the potential contribution of regional-scale climate and ecosystem change to uncertainties in global CO2 and climate change projections. Moreover| the importance of feedbacks suggests that a human-induced increase in forest vulnerability to climate change may have implications for regional and global scale climate sensitivity. 6434,2004,5,4,The Rupelian-Chattian boundary in the North Sea Basin and its calibration to the international time-scale,The classical problem of the nature and age of the Rupelian-Chattian (Early-Late Oligocene) unconformity in its type region is here approached using organic walled dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) correlations between the North Sea Basin and well-calibrated central Italian (Tethyan Ocean) sections. Useful Oligocene dinocyst events are the last occurrence of Enneadocysta pectiniformis (similar to29.3 Ma)| and the first occurrences of Saturnodinium pansum (similar to29.4 Ma)| Distatodinium biffii (similar to27.9 Ma) and Artemisiocysta cladodichotoma (similar to26.7 Ma). The latter event marks the earliest Chattian. The improved correlations indicate that the Rupelian-Chattian (R-C) boundary is associated with the so-called 'Oligocene Glacial Maximum'. This phase of important global cooling and glacio-eustatic sea level fall is genetically related to the unconformity between the classic Oligocene stages. Subsequent global warming (so-called 'Late Oligocene Warming Event')| induced a major sea level rise| leading e.g. to the time-transgressive deposition of the typical basal Chattian glauconitic sands. The oldest of the Chattian units have a GPTS age of similar to26.7 Ma. It further appears that a hiatus of similar to500 kyrs spans the classic Rupelian-Chattian unconformity. 6489,2004,3,3,The short-term cooling but long-term global warming due to biomass burning,Biomass burning releases gases (e.g.| CO2| CO| CH4| NOx| SO2| C2H6| C2H4| C3H8| C3H6) and aerosol particle components (e.g.| black carbon| organic matter| K+| Na+| Ca2+| Mg2+| H+| Cl-| H2SO4| SO42-| NO3-). To date| the global-scale climate response of controlling emission of these constituents together has not been examined. Here 10-yr global simulations of the climate response of biomass-burning aerosols and short-lived gases are coupled with numerical calculations of the long-term effect of controlling biomass-burning CO2 and CH4 to estimate the net effect of controlling burning over 100 yr. Whereas eliminating biomass-burning particles is calculated to warm temperatures in the short term| this warming may be more than offset after several decades by cooling due to eliminating long-lived CO2| particularly from permanent deforestation. It is also shown analytically that biomass burning always results in CO2 accumulation| even when regrowth fluxes equal emission fluxes and in the presence of fertilization. Further| because burning grassland and cropland yearly| as opposed to every several years| increases CO2| biofuel burning| considered a "renewable'' energy source| is only partially renewable| and biomass burning elevates CO2 until it is stopped. Because CO2 from biomass burning is considered recyclable and biomass particles are thought to cool climate| the Kyoto Protocol did not consider biomass-burning controls. If the results here| which apply to a range of scenarios but are subject to uncertainty| are correct| such control may slow global warming| contrary to common perception| and improve human health. 6340,2004,4,4,The state of the California Current| 2003-2004: A rare "normal" year,This report describes the state of the California Current System (CCS)-meteorological| physical| chemical| and biological-from January 2003 to the spring of 2004. The area covered in this report ranges from Oregon coastal waters to southern Baja California. Over the past year| most physical| chemical| and biological parameters were close to their climatological mean. Contributing to such "normal" conditions was the absence of a La Nina that had been expected after the previous year's El Nino. Noteworthy| however| are the cold and fresh anomalies in the upper 100-200 m that have been found over large areas of the CCS since 2002. Off Oregon these may have been responsible for increased productivity; off southern California these were associated with shallower nutriclines and subsurface chlorophyll maxima in the offshore areas. It is unclear if these anomalies are ephemeral or related to long-term changes in ocean climate. The effects of the hypothesized 1998 "regime shift" on the CCS are still difficult to discern| primarily because of other physical forcing varying on different time scales (e.g.| El Nino/Southern Oscillation| ENSO| cycles; the "subarctic influence"; global warming). The resolution of many of these issues requires larger scale observations than are available now. Establishment of the Pacific Coast Ocean Observing System (PaCOOS) under the guidance of NOAA will be a crucial step toward achieving that goal. 6537,2004,4,4,The stationarity of global mean climate,The observed climate exhibits noticeable fluctuations on a range of temporal and spatial scales. Major fluctuations are often attributed to 'external' influences| such as volcanic eruptions or solar perturbations| which obscure climatic fluctuations associated with natural climatic variability generated by internal processes within the climatic system. Although it is difficult to isolate the role of natural climatic variability within the observed climatic system| coupled global climatic models permit such a discrimination to be made in appropriately designed simulations. Thus| the CSIRO coupled global climatic model has been used to determined some basic characteristics of annually averaged global mean climate within a multi-millennial climatic simulation. Some examination of observed climate is also presented. A stationary climatic state was simulated for periods of up to 10000 years using the CSIRO model| with equilibrium usually being maintained to within 1-2% for all climatic variables investigated. The means by which such stationarity is maintained is analysed and the necessity for rapid negative feedback mechanisms is emphasized. The role of topographically induced climatic features is also discussed. Finally| the implications of the present| presumably greenhouse-related| global warming are considered in the context of the present results. Copyright (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. 6350,2004,4,4,The status of life-cycle assessment as an environmental management tool,As environmental awareness increases| industries and businesses have responded by providing 'greener" products and using ''greener" processes. Many companies have found it advantageous to explore ways of moving beyond compliance| using pollution prevention strategies and environmental management systems| to improve their environmental performance. One such way is life-cycle assessment (LCA). This concept considers the entire life cycle of a product| process| or an activity. Evaluating environmental impacts holistically from raw material acquisition| through manufacture| use| and disposal using a life-cycle perspective is gradually being viewed by environmental managers and decision makers as an important element in achieving environmental sustainability. The use of a holistic| life cycle approach can help industry and government avoid the unintended trading of one environmental problem for another. this paper addresses ongoing research in LCA methodology in the US EPA's National Risk Management Research Laboratory. Two key areas of this research include life-cycle inventory (LCI) data availability and life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) modeling. To address the issue of data availability| EPA developed a website entitled LCAccess. Although LCAccess does not itself contain data| it is a searchable global directory to potential data sources. LCAccess also serves as a central source for LCA information. In addition| EPA developed TRACI (the Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts)| which allows the characterization of ozone depletion| global warming| acidification| eutrophication| tropospheric ozone (smog) formation| ecotoxicity| buman Particulate effects| human health| fossil fuel depletion| and land use effects. TRACI can be used with life-cycle inventory to further analyze and understand the data. (C) 2004 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog. 6367,2004,2,4,The strength of El Nino and the spatial extent of tropical drought,[ 1] During El Nino events| several spatially coherent| nearly synchronous droughts typically develop in teleconnected tropical land areas. These droughts| reflected in below-average tropical mean land area precipitation| are frequently accompanied by multiple and wide ranging impacts. Here it is shown| based on precipitation observations for the past half-century| that there is a remarkably robust relationship between El Nino strength and the spatial extent of drought in the global tropics. Not reported previously| drought covers more than twice the land area in strong versus weak El Ninos and in many areas severe drought is shown to be more likely during El Nino than for all other times. The results provide insight into large-scale tropical rainfall variability and have implications for future droughts under global warming scenarios. 6705,2004,4,4,The use of lichens for environmental impact assessment,The value of lichens for both past and present environmental interpretation and for modelling future changes is demonstrated by reference to detailed and widescale biodiversity and biogeographical investigations. The reliability of lichens as biomonitors| particularly in respect of air pollution| is explored. The importance of baseline data and the value of adopting rigorous protocols for data retrieval are stressed. This is exemplified by personal experience in monitoring radionuclides in Poland before and after the Chernobyl disaster: the genera Umbilicaria and Lasallia proved ideal for this work| the signatures (ratios) of the different radionuclides taken up by the thalli providing consistent values and reliable baseline data. The role of lichens in environmental impact assessment (EIA) of both quantitative and qualitative changes in air pollution burdens and of a wide range of natural and man-made perturbations| even at a global level| is demonstrated. Lichens| due to their sensitivity| can be used as an early warning system for other biota that| without remedial action| may subsequently suffer stress or indeed extinction through environmental mismanagement. Information gained from our knowledge of how lichens respond to long-term perturbations and short-term upheavals in nature can be applied to the interpretation and monitoring of environmental changes and disasters brought about by a wide range of human activities. 6335,2004,2,4,The warming trend at Helgoland Roads| North Sea: Phytoplankton response,We combine the temperature and phytoplankton data from one of the longest aquatic data sets in history| the Helgoland Roads (North Sea| 54degrees11.3'N| 7degrees54.0'E) timeseries to evaluate the effects of climate change on the base of marine food webs. The data shows that| despite an obvious warming of 1.1degreesC since 1962| the mean diatom day of the algal spring bloom is delayed and shifted to the end of the first quarter of the year. This is apparently related to a warming of the autumn (October-December) temperatures. It is the first indication of a warming related shift in phytoplankton succession| the consequences of which would range from lifecycle/food resource mismatches to regime shifts in the North Sea system. 1989,2004,4,4,Three-dimensional distribution of gas hydrate beneath southern Hydrate Ridge: constraints from ODP Leg 204,Large uncertainties about the energy resource potential and role in global climate change of gas hydrates result from uncertainty about how much hydrate is contained in marine sediments. During Leg 204 of the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) to the accretionary complex of the Cascadia subduction zone| we sampled the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) from the seafloor to its base in contrasting geological settings defined by a 3D seismic survey. By integrating results from different methods| including several new techniques developed for Leg 204| we overcome the problem of spatial under-sampling inherent in robust methods traditionally used for estimating the hydrate content of cores and obtain a high-resolution| quantitative estimate of the total amount and spatial variability of gas hydrate in this structural system. We conclude that high gas hydrate content (30-40% of pore space or 20-26% of total volume) is restricted to the upper tens of meters below the seafloor near the summit of the structure| where vigorous fluid venting occurs. Elsewhere| the average gas hydrate content of the sediments in the gas hydrate stability zone is generally < 2% of the pore space| although this estimate may increase by a factor of 2 when patchy zones of locally higher gas hydrate content are included in the calculation. These patchy zones are structurally and stratigraphically controlled| contain up to 20% hydrate in the pore space when averaged over zones similar to 10 m thick| and may occur in up to similar to 20% of the region imaged by 3D seismic data. This heterogeneous gas hydrate distribution is an important constraint on models of gas hydrate formation in marine sediments and the response of the sediments to tectonic and environmental change. Published by Elsevier B.V. 6542,2004,2,4,Time series of coccolithophore activity in the Barents Sea| from twenty years of satellite imagery,[ 1] Blooms of the coccolithophorid Emiliana huxleyi may be sensitive to climate change. A comparison of global Coastal Zone Color Scanner ( CZCS| 1978-1986) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor ( SeaWiFS| 1997 present) imagery appears to show them advancing into some sub-Arctic seas. To determine when coccolithophore blooms appeared in the Barents Sea this paper makes use of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) visible channel data which bridges the gap between the CZCS and SeaWiFS missions ( 1981 - present). Analysis of over 3700 AVHRR images has shown coccolithophore blooms to be unambiguously present between 1989 - 1992 but probably absent in other pre-SeaWiFS years. This paper shows a correlation between positive temperature - negative salinity anomalies in the Barents Sea and bloom occurrence. If global warming continues to trigger increased warmth and freshwater runoff in the region then there may be an increased frequency of coccolithophore blooms within the Barents Sea. 6691,2004,3,4,To treat or not to treat? Applying chemical engineering tools and a life cycle approach to assessing the level of sustainability of a clean-up technology,A traditional approach used to evaluate clean-up technologies| in which only plant discharges are considered| is contrasted with a sustainability assessment. The sustainability of any technology can be assessed from three complementary points of view: economic| environmental and social. As such| this paper presents a comprehensive scheme that can be applied to any process| product or technology. In addition| the use of chemical engineering tools such as process design| process modelling and simulation represent a baseline for the sustainability assessment of technologies| as presented in a case study. The optimal granular activated carbon adsorption process design is used as a model system to demonstrate the advantages of sustainability approaches over traditional approaches. A mathematical model that describes the performance of the process at various design options was developed. This model includes cost equations that were used to estimate the total cost of each alternative under different plant designs and two waste scenarios ( a benzene and a 1|2-dichloroethane discharge). Life Cycle Assessment tools were applied to generate an inventory of emissions and the impact assessment measured as Photochemical Ozone Creation (POC) and Global Warming Potential (GWP). The model examined trade-offs between pollutants discharged into the atmosphere and pollution associated with the adoption and operation of the technology. One of the main results from the technology assessment is that the environmental impact| measured in terms of GWP proved to be higher for the technology operation than for the untreated waste streams themselves| and therefore suggested that the streams should not be treated. However| the social impact evaluation ( measured as risk assessment) conducted as part of this work proved that it was morally and legally mandatory to treat them due to the adverse effects on human health that they may represent. As such| a triple bottom line sustainability assessment was demonstrated to be one of the most important frameworks for decision making. The evaluation scheme presented in this work can also be applied to other areas such as the identification of the most sustainable process design and different green chemistry route alternatives. 6362,2004,2,4,Too cold to prosper - winter mortality prevents population increase of the introduced American slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata in northern Europe,The distribution of the introduced American slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata (L.) on the Atlantic coast of Europe shows a clear latitudinal gradient. In the south| C fornicata may reach abundances of several thousand individuals per meter squared accompanied by diverse ecological and economic effects. In contrast| abundances at northern waters as in Germany| Denmark and Norway barely reach 100 ind. m(-2)| indicating one or several limiting factors for population increase. By studying a population in the northern Wadden Sea of Germany| we examined four factors that we regarded as likely to potentially limit population increase of C fornicata: (1) high predation by the main benthic molluse predators| (2) high infestation by parasites| (3) low reproductive output and growth in cold waters and (4) high winter mortality during freezing winters. Our results do not indicate biotic restrictions: The main benthic mollusc predators| shore crabs (Carcinus maenas) and sea stars (Asterias rubens) strongly preferred the dominant blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) in choice experiments and no infestation with parasitic trematodes were observed. Further| there was no indication of limitation in reproduction and growth since abundant larvae were observed in the water column and the period of reproduction (April to September) as well as growth rates (recruits: 9-14 mm first summer) match with data from southern areas. In contrast| population dynamics of C. fornicata was strongly affected by cold winters: During the two winters investigated| mortality amounted to 56-64% with up to 97% on single mussel beds contrasting to 11-14% yearly mortality in areas without frost in southern Europe. Negative winter effects are also suggested by remarkably low larval abundances after an exceptionally severe winter. Our results suggest that winter mortality is the main limiting factor for population increase of C fornicata in the study area. We propose that milder winters as a corollary of global warming may allow for an increase in the abundance of northern populations combined with a northward shift of the concomitant negative ecological and economic effects. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6680,2004,3,3,Trading CO2 emission allowances - the competitive effects of national allocation December 2003,Efforts to mitigate global warming caused by the emissions of greenhouse gas are likely to affect the iron and steel sector| a major source of CO2 on a global scale. In the European context| the choice of a so-called "cap and trade" regime to curb emissions from industry is motivated by the search for a least-cost solution| in order to alleviate competitiveness concerns. The implementation mode of the EU Directive on CO2 emissions trading nevertheless creates uncertainties and concerns about potential distortions of competition that could arise once the system comes into play. 2027,2004,2,4,Tree diversity change in remaining primary mixed-broadleaved Korean pine forest under climate change and human activities,Studying biodiversity change in existing typical ecosystems of the world under possible global climate change and local human activities is important for diversity conservation. An adapted forest dynamics model is used to simulate tree diversity change of the remaining primary mixed-broadleaved Korean pine forest (RPMKPF) in northeast China under global climate change and local human activities for the next 50 years. Human activities include logging| which removes all big trees (DBH>50 cm)| removing all individuals of each single species and all species of each functional type (shade tolerant| shade intolerant and medium type tree species). As results for RPMKPF| the alpha index of tree diversity decreases under climate change| but it increases significantly under a combination of climate change and logging. Removing all individuals of each single species significantly affects the tree diversity of the ecosystem. After the removal of shade tolerant species| both alpha and beta(c) indices of tree diversity experience a significant change. The alpha index decreases significantly under climate change when shade intolerant or medium type tree species are removed| but the beta(c) index does not change significantly. The results of this study have implications for tree diversity management in RPMKPF under climate change and human activities. 2044,2004,2,4,Tree rings of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karsten) in Lithuania as drought indicators: dendroecological approach,Dendroecological research on the radial growth of Norway spruce in Lithuania during the 20(th) century has been conducted. Hypothesis of the study is following|: intensity of droughts during the 20(th) century is the main factor determining the state of spruce forests in Lithuania. Aim of the study was to estimate the impact of dry spring and summer climate conditions on Norway spruce during the 20(th) century with a respect to global climate change. Climate impact on the radial of spruce using multivariate regression techniques and detection of pointer years (i.e. years with narrow tree rings in the majority of trees) was investigated. The results show that for radial growth of spruce the most important factor is humid beginning of summer and that from four to six pointer years to droughts during the 20(th) century are attributed. 6575,2004,4,3,Trend and interannual variability of Walker| monsoon and Hadley circulations defined by velocity potential in the upper troposphere,In this paper| we attempt to divide the global divergent field at the upper troposphere in contributions from the Hadley| Walker and monsoon circulations| using a monthly mean velocity potential field at 200-hPa level. First| the zonal mean of the velocity potential is analysed to represent the Hadley circulation. The deviation from the zonal mean is then divided into its annual mean and the seasonal cycle parts| which are considered to represent the Walker and monsoon circulations| respectively. The intensities of each circulation are measured by their peaks in the velocity potential field separated in each component. According to this separation| the mean intensities of the Walker| monsoon and Hadley circulations appear to be 120: 60: 40 (x 10(5) m(2) s(-1)) in January and 120: 90: 45 (x 10(5) m(2) s(-1)) in July| respectively. Based on this simple definition| interannual variabilities of each circulation are then examined quantitatively using the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The time series of the intensity of the Walker circulation coincides with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI)| and the intensity has weakened in recent decades. That of the Hadley circulation indicates intensifying trend in boreal winter. Finally| the same analysis is applied for the model atmosphere by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM1) with a gradual increase in CO2 at a compound rate of 1% yr(-1) for 150 yr. It is shown that the Hadley circulation intensifies by 40% and the monsoon circulation decays by 20% in boreal summer when the global warming has occurred in a century later. The result demonstrates that the proposed simple separation of the tropical circulation in the Walker| monsoon and Hadley components is useful| although it is not rigorous| for the initial assessment of the model response to the global warming. 6685,2004,2,4,Trend of salt lake changes in the background of global warming and tactics for adaptation to the changes,Salt lakes are a mirror of climatic changes and provide holographic records of environmental changes of lakes. According to a study of geological hazards in typical salt lake areas in China and other regions| the authors explain how geological hazards in salt lake areas are caused by natural agents and how humans can seek benefits| avoid hazards and reduce losses on the premise that they have monitored and mastered the trend of salt lake changes in advance and even can store flood and recharge water in lakes and extract saline resources. The climate in western China is probably turning from warm-dry to warm-moist. The authors analyze the change trend of salt lakes sensu lato (with salinitygreater than or equal to0.3 wt% (NaCl)(eq)) and salt lakes sensu stricto (with salinity greater than or equal to3.5 wt% (NaCl)(eq)) in China in such climatic conditions and distinguish three types of salt lake areas (i.e. lake water rising type| lake water falling type and lake water rising and unstable type) according to the characteristics of lake water rising and shrinking. In order to conform to the climatic and lake changes in China's salt lake areas| the authors propose to add and improve hydrological and meteorological observation stations and integrate observations with remote sensing monitoring in important salt lake areas and set up multidisciplinary and interdepartmental basic projects to monitor and study recent climatic and environmental changes in salt lake areas of western China. Moreover| it is necessary to build additional flood-control and drought-preventing water conservancy facilities in key salt lake areas and work out measures for ecological protection in salt lake areas. Full consideration should be given to the influence of flooding when building saltfields and implementing capital projects. 6467,2004,2,4,Tropical cyclones and climate change: unresolved issues,This paper reviews our current understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones. While there are presently no discernible changes in tropical cyclone characteristics that could reasonably be ascribed to global warming| predictions suggest some increases in tropical cyclone maximum intensity in a warmer world. Formation regions are unlikely to change| while little consensus has emerged regarding changes in cyclone numbers or tracks. Some uncertainty in these predictions is created by clear deficiencies in current climate models. If predictions of intensities are correct| however| changes should be detectable in the Atlantic some time after 2050. 6493,2004,3,3,Tropical deforestation and greenhouse-gas emissions,A recent (2002) analysis concluded that rates of tropical deforestation and atmospheric carbon emissions during the 1990-1997 interval were lower than previously suggested. We challenged this assertion with respect to tropical carbon emissions| but our conclusions were disputed by the authors of the original study. Here we provide further evidence to support our conclusion that the effect of tropical deforestation on greenhouse-gas emissions and global warming is substantial. At least for Brazilian Amazonia| the net impact of tropical deforestation on global warming may be more than double that estimated in the recent study. 6553,2004,4,3,Uncertainty Analysis for Distribution of Greenhouse Gases Concentration in Atmosphere,Spatial distribution of greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration in the atmosphere is important in determining the atmosphere's radioactive absorbtion and global warming. Reducing uncertainties in understanding the spatial distribution of GHGs concentration in the atmosphere have particular meaning in climate modeling and projection of future climate scenarios. In this study| the vertical distribution of GHGs concentration in the atmosphere is deduced and the relevant uncertainty is analyzed by a fuzzy set method. This method was applied in a case study to examine the vertical distribution of CO(2) concentration in the atmosphere. Results indicate that uncertainties in projection of GHGs emissions and global surface temperature have played important roles on vertical distribution of CO(2) concentration in the atmosphere. This has particular meaning fur study of relation between CO(2) distribution and global warming. 6681,2004,4,4,Updated radiative forcing estimates of four halocarbons,[1] There is a large discrepancy ( greater than 20%) between two recently published estimates of radiative forcing of four hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)| two of which| HFC-23 and HFC-134a| are the most abundant HFCs in the atmosphere. We report an intercomparison| using two different radiative transfer methods| aimed at clarifying the forcing values for HFC-23 and HFC-134a| as well as HFC-227ea and HFC-32. The calculated global| annual mean radiative forcings differed by 12% or less and are within the expected errors in the radiative forcing estimates. 6437,2004,4,4,Urbanization effect on the observed change in mean monthly temperatures between 1951-1980 and 1971-2000 in Korea,Gridded temperature data are necessary to run ecological models at regional scales for climate impact studies and have been generated by spatially interpolating measured values at synoptic stations. Because there are few synoptic stations with long-term records in rural areas in Korea| data from urban stations have been used for this purpose. Due to the overlapping of the rapid urbanization-industrialization period with the global warming era in Korea| climate data from these urbanized areas might be contaminated with urban heat island effect. This study was conducted to differentiate urbanization and regional climate change effects on apparent temperature change. Monthly averages of daily minimum| maximum| and mean temperature at 14 synoptic stations were prepared for 1951-1980 ( past normal) and 1971-2000 ( current normal) periods| respectively. Differences in two temperature normals were regressed to the logarithm of the population increase at 14 corresponding cities from 1966 to 1985. The regression equations were used to determine potential effects of urbanization and to extract the net contribution of regional climate change to the apparent temperature change. According to the model calculation| urbanization effect was common in all months except April. Up to 0.5. warming of nighttime temperature was induced by urbanization in the current normal period compared with the past normal period. There was little effect of regional climate change on local warming in the warm season ( May through November). The cool season was warmed mainly by regionally increased daytime temperature. The results could be used to remove urbanization effects embedded in raw data| helping restore unbiased rural temperature trends in South Korea. 6701,2004,2,4,Use of proxy-documentary and instrumental data to assess the risk factors leading to sea flooding in Venice,Due to its geographical position| and because it was built at sea level| Venice is extremely sensitive to climate changes and| in the future| risks being submerged as a consequence of the expansion of oceanic water in response to global warming. A key problem is the increasing frequency of storm surges with the sea flooding the city (locally named acqua alta) that has reached an unsustainable level. After careful examination of both proxy documentary and instrumental data| it has been possible to reconstruct the extreme weather conditions and natural hazards| which have taken place in the last two millennia| with particular reference to surges. A key problem with proxy data from written sources is that periods with missing data may be misinterpreted as 'normal'| or that inaccurate reporting may lead to duplication or even multiplication of events. For this reason| the accuracy of the proxy data has been checked by comparing it with other known events. An accurate series of the flood surges has been obtained combining instrumental observations (1872-2000) with documentary data for the previous period. The period of minimum solar activity of Sporer (1416-1534) was anomalous for surges. Not only have meteorologically perturbed periods been identified| but also the effects of the accelerated subsidence of the city and of certain works undertaken in the lagoon that varied the exchanges between the sea and the lagoon. The impact of subsidence and of the modified dynamical exchanges of the lagoon on the change in flooding frequency has been established. During the instrumental period| the tide gauge measured a 31-cm rise. The frequency of surges has dramatically increased since the 1960s| reaching about two flooding events per year| the greatest value since 792 AD. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6509,2004,3,4,Use of real options in nuclear power plant valuation in the presence of uncertainty with CO2 emission credit,The purpose of this study is to analyze the value of an investment in power generation assets that do not emit CO2| by using a real option model. This study evaluates the effects of future uncertainty on investment decision-making| by focusing on the uncertainty of CO2 emission credits [yen/t-CO2] in the fairly near future in Japan. Electric utilities are required to keep plans to prepare for various future uncertainties such as the price of CO2 emission credits. The real option approach can evaluate the option value of decision-making under uncertainty. This study examined the option value of a power plant [yen/KW] to evaluate the effects of an externality under uncertainty. The results showed that nuclear power would have the most value under the forthcoming CO2 emission limitations. In order to secure the effectiveness of measures against global warming| we should reconsider the roles of nuclear power plants in Japan. Finally| the real option model is shown to be an effective candidate for a decision-making support tool to deal with problems in energy environmental policy. 6706,2004,2,4,Using large-scale data from ringed birds for the investigation of effects of climate change on migrating birds: Pitfalls and prospects,Ringing recovery datasets at ringing centres cover large areas and long time-spans| and| therefore| they are interesting for investigating long-term changes in bird migration. However| heterogeneity of data in terms of ringing activity| recapture and re-sighting efforts and recovery probabilities as well as reporting probabilities of recoveries on a temporal and spatial scale are major obstacles to such analyses. Among 30 species of short-distance or partial migrants from Germany we found evidence for significantly increased proportions of winter recoveries within a distance less than 100 km in recent years in nine species. We found evidence for reduced mean recovery distances in eight species and evidence for increased mean recovery distances in five species. Increases in recovery distances might result from changes in reporting probabilities of hunted birds| density-dependent changes and probably other reasons. A tendency towards wintering at higher latitudes in recent years was found in 10 species while mean latitudes of winter recoveries moved southwards in three species. These results are mainly consistent with studies from other European regions. Changes in geographical distribution of recoveries may be interpreted from a global warming perspective| although only one study (Soutullo| 2003) has so far demonstrated direct relationships (although inconsistent) between migration distance (wintering latitude) and climate variables. Since other factors such as changes in land use| winter feeding| availability of garbage dumps and other environmental changes may affect the position of wintering areas| these changes have to be taken into account when changes in migratory behaviour are analysed. 6639,2004,2,3,Using sea level rise projections for urban planning in Australia,This study deals with incorporating predictions of sea level rise into practical municipal planning. Predictions of global mean sea level rise can be made with more confidence than many other aspects of climate change science. The world has warmed in the past century| and as a result global mean sea level has risen and is expected to continue to rise. Even so| there are significant uncertainties regarding predictions of sea level. These arise from two main sources: the future amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere| and the ability of models to predict the impact of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Current knowledge regarding the effect of global warming on sea level rise is reviewed. Global mean sea level is expected to rise by 3-30 cm by 2040| and 9-88 cm by 2100. An important remaining uncertainty is the future contribution of surface water storage (for example| lakes and reservoirs) to changes in sea level. In addition| there are also significant local sea level effects that need to he taken account in many regions of the globe| including isostatic and tectonic effects. The thermal expansion component of sea level rise is also likely to vary regionally| due to regional differences in the rate of downward mixing of heat and to changes in ocean currents. The current state of planning for sea level rise in Australia is reviewed. While not all coastal municipalities include sea level rise in their planning schemes| the recent adoption in a number of States of new planning schemes with statutory authority creates a changed planning environment for local government. Coastal urban planning needs to take sea level rise into account because its effects will be apparent during the typical replacement time of urban infrastructure such as buildings (before about 70 years). For local planning| ideally a risk assessment methodology may be employed to estimate the risk caused by sea level rise. In many locations| planning thresholds would also have to be considered in the light of possible changes in storm surge climatology due to changes in storm frequency and intensity| and (in some locations) changes to return periods of riverine flooding. In the medium term (decades)| urban beaches will need beach re-nourishment and associated holding structures such as sea walls. Changes in storm and wave climatology are crucial factors for determining future coastal erosion. 6333,2004,3,4,Utilization of the cryogenic exergy of LNG by a mirror gas-turbine,In the course of worldwide efforts to suppress global warming| the saving of energy becomes more important. Recently| LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminals in our country have received more than 50 million tons of LNG per year. Therefore| the utilization of the cryogenic exergy in connection with the regasification of LNG gains more and more importance. The aim of this paper is the recovery of the energy consumed in liquefaction using the MGT (mirror gasturbine)| which is a new kind of combined cycle of a conventional gas-turbine worked as a topping cycle and TG (inverted Brayton cycle) as a bottoming cycle. The optimum characteristics have been calculated and it is shown that this cycle is superior to the current-use gasification systems in employing seawater heat in terms of thermal efficiency and specific output. In the present cycle| the cold LNG is used to cool the exhaust gas from a turbine of a TG| and then the exergy of the liquefied natural gas is transformed| with a very high efficiency| to electric energy. The main feature of this new concept is the removal of an evaporation system using seawater. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6585,2004,2,4,Variability of the recent climate of eastern Africa,The primary objective of this study is to investigate the recent variability of the eastern African climate. The region of interest is also known as the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA)| and comprises the countries of Burundi| Djibouti| Eritrea| Ethiopia| Kenya| Rwanda| Somalia| Sudan| Uganda| and Tanzania. The analysis was based primarily on the construction of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of gauge rainfall data and on CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data| derived from a combination of rain-gauge observations and satellite estimates. The investigation is based on the period 1961-2001 for the 'short rains' season of eastern Africa of October through to December. The EOF analysis was supplemented by projection of National Centers for Environmental Prediction wind data onto the rainfall eigenmodes to understand the rainfall-circulation relationships. Furthermore| correlation and composite analyses have been performed with the Climatic Research Unit globally averaged surface-temperature time series to explore the potential relationship between the climate of eastern Africa and global warming. The most dominant mode of variability (EOFI) based on CMAP data over eastern Africa corresponds to El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) climate variability. It is associated with above-normal rainfall amounts during the short rains throughout the entire region| except for Sudan. The corresponding anomalous low-level circulation is dominated by easterly inflow from the Indian Ocean| and to a lesser extent the Congo tropical rain forest| into the positive rainfall anomaly region that extends across most of eastern Africa. The easterly inflow into eastern Africa is part of diffluent outflow from the maritime continent during the warm ENSO events. The second eastern African EOF (trend mode) is associated with decadal variability. In distinct contrast from the ENSO mode pattern| the trend mode is characterized by positive rainfall anomalies over the northern sector of eastern Africa and opposite conditions over the southern sector. This rainfall trend mode eluded detection in previous studies that did not include recent decades of data| because the signal was still relatively weak. The wind projection onto this mode indicates that the primary flow that feeds the positive anomaly region over the northern part of eastern Africa emanates primarily from the rainfall-deficient southern region of eastern Africa and Sudan. Although we do not assign attribution of the trend mode to global warming (in part because of the relatively short period of analysis)| the evidence| based on our results and previous studies| strongly suggests a potential connection. Copyright (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. 1959,2004,2,4,Variation in climate warming along the migration route uncouples arrival and breeding dates,Migratory species are of special concern in the face of global climate change| since they may be affected by changes in the wintering area| along the migration route and at the breeding grounds. Here we show that migration and breeding times of a trans-Saharan migrant| the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca| closely follow local temperatures along the migration route and at the breeding grounds. Because of differences in long-term temperature trends of short within-spring periods| the migration period and the time interval between migration and breeding dates of this species have extended in SW Finland. Temperatures in northern parts of Central Europe have risen at the time when the first migrants arrive there| facilitating their migration northward. Temperatures later in the spring have not changed| and the last individuals arrive at the same time as before. The timing of breeding has not advanced because temperatures at the breeding site after arrival have not changed. These results show that the pied flycatchers can speed up their migration in response to rising temperatures along the migration route. Our results strongly indicate that the effects of climate change have to be studied at the appropriate time and geographical scales for each species and population concerned. 6667,2004,5,2,Variation of Labrador Sea Water formation over the Last Glacial cycle in a climate model of intermediate complexity,The variation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation over the Last Glacial cycle| from Oxygen Isotopic Substage 5e (OIS-5e; the Eemian) to future global warming projections| is investigated using the UVic Earth System Climate Model. The results are compared with available micropaleontological and stable isotope proxy paleo-reconstructions. Equilibrium simulations for the Eemian (125 kyr BP) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM-21 kyr BP) both reveal the absence of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) formation although NADW formation still occurs| albeit at a reduced rate relative to the modern times. For the Eemian| the location of convection in the eastern North Atlantic is similar to the present| although it is generally shallower and less extensive. In the case of the LGM. deep convection has moved southward to the western coast of Europe and is much more localised. The inferred inception of a modern-like circulation slightly before 7 kyr BP revealed by proxy reconstructions is not captured by the model unless the meltwater forcing from the Laurentide ice sheet is applied in a long transient simulation. This raises questions concerning the applicability of equilibrium simulations in capturing the early Holocene climate. In all global warming projections| the LSW formation initially ceases as atmospheric CO2 rises| but recovers once the level is held fixed in the atmosphere. Convection in the north extends further into the Nordic Seas as the sea ice edge retreats. In all simulations convection remains active in the eastern North Atlantic. with its latitude depending on the position of the sea ice edge| suggesting that the formation of lower NADW is a robust feature of Late Quaternary climate. As the Labrador Sea is found to be very sensitive to the freshwater forcing| it suggests that this region represents an ideal location for the concentration of observational studies to monitor a possible oceanic response to anthropogenic climate change. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 6665,2004,2,4,Variations of surface air temperature over the land areas in and around the Bay of Bengal,The inter-annual variation and linear trends of the surface air temperature in the regions in and around the Bay of Bengal have been studied using the time series data of monthly and annual mean temperature for 20-40 years period within 1951-1990. The study area extends from Pusma Camp of Nepal in the north and Kuala Lumpur of Malaysia in the south and between 80-100. E. The annual variation of temperature has also been studied using the mean monthly temperature for the variable time frames 1961-1975| 1976-1990 and 1961-1990. The trend of temperature has been analyzed using linear regression technique with the data from 1961-1990| which showed that the warming trend is dominant over the study areas except for a few stations. It has been found that Nepal shows predominant warming trends. Bangladesh and the adjacent areas of India and the northern part of Bay of Bengal adjacent to the Bangladesh coast have shown strong warming trends of the annual temperature with maximum at Dhaka (0.037degreesC/year). The near equatorial zone| i.e.| southern India| Sri Lanka and part of Thailand and Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur) shows warming trends in the annual mean temperature with strong warming at Pamban and Anuradhapura (around 0.04degreesC/year). The cooling trends have been observed at a few stations including Port Blair| Yangoon and Cuttack. Further analysis shows the presence of prominent ENSO scale of variations with time period 4-7 years and 2-3 years for almost all the stations. The decadal mode with T>7 years is present in some data series. The results of the variations of temperature with respect to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) show that SOI has some negative correlation with temperature for most of the stations except those in the extreme northeast. It has been found that positive anomaly of temperature has been observed for El Nino events and negative anomaly for the La Nina events. 6527,2004,2,4,Vegetation change in the regional surface climate over East Asia due to global warming using BIOME4,This study investigates the possible changes in the regional surface climate due to global warming from a MM5 downscaling simulation for the period of 1971-2100. The main focus of this study is to observe the changes in vegetation types over East Asia. BIOME4| an equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model| is utilized to simulate vegetation patterns. Regional projections of this study show the increase of surface air temperature by 5 degrees C and precipitation by 6% over East Asia in the end of the 21st century. The present study also noticed that the increasing trend of temperature is associated with the increasing trends of the minimum temperature of the coldest month. Therefore| the region of favorable temperature conditions for vegetation growth in lower latitudes seems to extend toward the higher latitude. It leads to a northward shift of vegetation distribution in the lower latitudes besides the area extension. For instance| the trend in which the warm mixed forest and temperate deciduous forest shift northward may be distinguished. At the same time| the area of temperate deciduous forest pervades the area and replaces temperate grassland regions. Of interest| the tropical evergreen forest is expected to appear over southern China in the end of the 21st century. The possible vegetation changes are mainly affected by a temperature increase rather than a precipitation increase. 6470,2004,2,3,Vegetation dynamics - simulating responses to climatic change,A modelling approach to simulating vegetation dynamics is described| incorporating critical processes of carbon sequestration|| growth| mortality and distribution. The model has been developed to investigate the responses of Vegetation to environmental change| at time scales from days to centuries and from the local to the global scale. The model is outlined and subsequent tests| against independent data sources| arc relatively successful| from the small scale to the global scale. Tests against eddy covariance observations of carbon exchange by vegetation indicated significant difference between measured and simulated net ecosystem production (NEP). NEP is the net of large fluxes due to gross primary production and respiration| which are not directly measured and so there is some uncertainty in explaining a differences between observations and simulations. In addition it was noted that closer agreement of fluxes was| achieved for natural| or long-lived managed vegetation than for recently managed vegetation. The discrepancies appear to be Most closely related to respiratory carbon losses from the soil| but this area needs further exploration. The differences do not scale up to the global scale| where simulated and measured bal net biorne production were similar| indicating that fluxes measured at the managed observed sites are not typical globally. The model (the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model| SDGVM) has been applied to contemporary vegetation dynamics and indicates a significant CO2 fertilisation effect on the sequestration of atmospheric CO2. The terrestrial carbon sink for the 20th century is simulated to be widespread between latitudes 40degreesS and 65degreesN| but is greatest between 10degrees S and 6degrees N| excluding the effects of human dellorestation. The mean maximum sink capacity over the 20th century is small| at 25 gC m(-2) year(-1) or approximately 1% of gross primary production. Simulations of vegetation dynamics under a scenario of future global warming indicate a gradual decline in the terrestrial carbon sink| with the capacity to absorb human emissions of CO2 being reduced from 20% in 2000 to approximately 2 % between 2075 and 2100. The responses of carbon sequestration and vegetation structure and distribution to stabilisation of climate and CO2 may extend for up to 50 years after stabilisation has occurred. 2064,2004,5,4,Verification of magnetostratigraphic scales of miocene core section from Lake Baikal,The dynamics of cosmogenic Be-10 contents in the BDP-96-1 (100 to 200 m) and BDP-98-2 (200 to 600 m) cores was used to test published magnetostratigraphic scales for the Miocene section and to time the core base. Only one of three alternative scales for the BDP-98 core tested against the Be-10 decay of T-1/2 = 1.5 myr showed a perfect consistency with the decay law. The basal age of the 600 m BDP-98 section was estimated at 8.4 myr. 6392,2004,3,3,Vision 2030: transport visions for strategic highways,This paper reports work done three years ago for the Highways Agency in England to stimulate long-term thinking about how to develop and operate the strategic highway network in the UK. The effects of road traffic are becoming a critical problem throughout the world| and without some radical solutions the situation is forecast to get worse. Problems such as traffic congestion| global warming and how to achieve sustainability are politically sensitive yet require positive action. Innovative thinking is needed now to develop solutions and actions that are good for the long term. The Highways Agency in its role as network operator is responsible for managing| maintaining and improving the strategic road network in England-over 8000 km of motorways and trunk roads. In a bid to look beyond the usual 5-10 year planning cycle| the Highways Agency commissioned the Vision 2030 Project. Visioning techniques and innovative thinking were used to develop several possible scenarios and propositions for the long-term future of inter-urban transport. These transport visions have influenced the Highways Agency in developing suitable action plans to achieve the desired levels of service for users of the strategic road network| against a changing and challenging background. 1945,2004,2,4,Vulnerability of waterborne diseases to climate change in Canada: A review,This project addresses two important issues relevant to the health of Canadians: the risk of waterborne illness and the health impacts of global climate change. The Canadian health burden from waterborne illness is unknown| although it presumably accounts for a significant proportion of enteric illness. Recently| large outbreaks with severe consequences produced by E. coli O157:H7 and Cryptosporidium have alarmed Canadians and brought demands for political action. A concurrent need to understand the health impacts of global climate changes and to develop strategies to prevent or prepare for these has also been recognized. There is mounting evidence that weather is often a factor in triggering waterborne disease outbreaks. A recent study of precipitation and waterborne illness in the United States found that more than half the waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States during the last half century followed a period of extreme rainfall. Projections of international global climate change scenarios suggest that| under conditions of global warming most of Canada may expect longer summers| milder winters| increased summer drought| and more extreme precipitation. Excess precipitation| floods| high temperatures| and drought could affect the risk of waterborne illness in Canada. The existing scientific information regarding most weather-related adverse health impacts and on the impacts of global climate change on health in Canada is insufficient for informed decision making. The results of this project address this need through the investigation of the complex systemic interrelationships between disease incidence| weather parameters| and water quality and quantity| and by projecting the potential impact of global climate change on those relationships. 6684,2004,2,4,Warmer winters drive butterfly range expansion by increasing survivorship,As the climate warms| many species are moving to higher latitudes and elevations. However| range shifts can be caused by many factors. These factors are unknown in most cases. The specific role of climate in these dynamics needs study to better predict future consequences of global warming. This case study evaluates whether warming|is driving the northward range expansion of a skipper butterfly (Atalopedes campestris). Recently colonized areas have warmed 2-4degreesC over the past 50 years. To assess the importance of climate change for population persistence in these areas| I compared population dynamics at two locations (at the current range edge and just inside the range) that differ by 2-3degreesC. Population growth rate at these two locations over two years was positively correlated with January mean and annual mean temperatures. To determine whether larval overwinter survivorship could explain this correlation| I transplanted larvae over winter to both sites. Larval survivorship was very low at both locations| but significantly lower at the range edge| probably because lower lethal temperatures frequently occurred there. To estimate the direct effect of cold stress on larval survivorship| I applied a previously derived hazard-rate model based on laboratory experiments. With input from field-measured daily mean temperature| the model accurately predicted transplant survivorship at both locations over two winters. Combined results from population and larval transplant analyses indicate that winter temperatures directly affect the persistence of A. campestris at its northern range edge| and that winter warming was a prerequisite for this butterfly's range expansion. 2002,2004,2,4,Water level variability and trends in Lake Constance in the light of the 1999 centennial flood,The extreme flood of Lake Constance in 1999 focused attention on the variability of annual lake levels. The year 1999 not only brought one of the highest floods of the last 180 years but also one of the earliest in the season. The 1999 extreme event was caused by heavy rainfall in the alpine and pre-alpine regions. The influence of precipitation in the two distinct regional catchments on lake level variations can be quantified by correlation analysis. The long-term variations in lake level and precipitation show similar patterns. This is seen through the use of spectral analysis| which gives similar bands of spectral densities for precipitation and lake level time series. It can be concluded from the comparison of these results with the analysis of climate change patterns in northern Europe| i.e. the index of the North Atlantic Oscillation| that the regional effects on lake level variations are more pronounced than those of global climate change. 1995,2004,2,4,Water scarcity under scenarios for global climate change and regional development in semiarid northeastern Brazil,The state of Ceara| located in semiarid northeastern Brazil| suffers under irregularly recurring droughts that go along with water scarcity. Structural policies to control and reduce water scarcity| as water supply and demand management| should be seen as long-term planning| and thus must consider climate change and regional development. To this end| the present research proposes a model-based global change scenario. Water stress is assessed for 184 municipalities in Ceara between 2001 and 2025. For this purpose| four global change scenarios are developed| considering both global climate change and the effects of development policies. Climatic| hydrological| and water use models are applied and a proposed index computed for identification of long-term water stress. Application of the methodology in the focus area shows that| if no effective intervention measures are taken| up to almost 60 percent of the municipalities of the state may suffer under long-term water scarcity by 2025. On average| municipalities in the state of Ceara have a water shortage probability for the next 25 years ranging from 9 percent to 20 percent annually| depending on the scenario. The 10 percent most stressed municipalities have a probability of over 80 percent annually of facing water scarcity in the scenario period (25 years). Results also show that a decentralized development policy can compensate for the possible severe effects of climatic trends on future water availability over the scenario period. 6557,2004,2,4,Water use efficiency of a maize/cowpea intercrop on a highly acidic tropical soil as affected by liming and fertilizer application,Due to global warming| there is a need to increase the water use efficiency of crops under rainfed agriculture| particularly in semi-arid regions. Therefore| the effect of NPK fertilizer application (with or without liming) on the water use efficiency of a maize/cowpea intercropping system was investigated in the semi-arid part of Brazil. The crops were grown on a strongly acidic| sandy soil with three treatments: (i) Complete NPK fertilizer application with lime (Compl)| (ii) Complete NPK fertilizer application without lime (Compl-L) and (iii) Control. On the average| dry matter production was 2.6 times higher with the Compl treatment than in the Control and 1.6 times higher than in the Compl-L treatment. The soil water balance was calculated with two different model approaches (HILLFLOW and EPICSEAR). When checked against measured soil water content during the growing period| both models produced accurate results| but only EPICSEAR was sensitive to the effects of liming and fertilizer application on soil water balance and dry matter production at this site. Comparison between the Compl and the Compl-L treatments shows that the increase in transpirational water use efficiency (WUET) (+63 and +80%| respectively) is mainly due to the application of NPK. Although the site is highly acid| liming was of minor importance for increasing the WUET. However| observations and simulations demonstrate that| through the additional application of lime| the gross water use efficiency (WUEC) in a maize/cowpea intercropping system can be increased by 60% compared to sole application of NPK and by more than 160% compared to the control. 6743,2004,3,4,What can we learn from ecological valuation of processes with the sustainable process index (SPI) - the case study of energy production systems,The Sustainable Process Index is an ecological evaluation system specialty developed for the requirements of process engineering. It allows reliable as well as convenient and quick valuation of processes on the base of data available to a process engineer even in the early stages of planning. The paper will discuss the application of this index in practical examples of interest to many process engineers. Energy systems are of great importance for almost any process| as they cause a considerable part of investment| as well as operating costs. From the ecological point of view| they may be even more influential as they cause direct emissions (e.g. SO2| NOx) as well as contributions to global ecological problems| most prominently global warming. The right decision about energy systems within a process therefore is of considerable importance for any process engineer. A comparison of different energy systems with the SPI will reveal the most important ecological features of energy systems using different conversion technologies as well as different raw materials and energy sources. The various pressures exerted by these systems on the environment will be discussed. However| the most important information derived from a valuation with the SPI is the relative size of these pressures. This bases the decision about the right energy system on an equal footing for all technological contenders. It allows also the setting of engineering and optimisation priorities. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6729,2004,2,4,Where is the western limit of the tropical Indian Ocean seaweed flora? An analysis of intertidal seaweed biogeography on the east coast of South Africa,New| large-scale collections have been made of marine benthic macroalgae (seaweeds) on the east coast of South Africa| and the distributions of shallow-water species were analyzed in detail by multivariate| clustering and beta-diversity methods. The two northernmost sites are distinct| with a predominance of tropical species| and it is concluded that the changeover from a tropical Indian Ocean flora to a temperate South African flora occurs most rapidly in the vicinity of St. Lucia| 135 km south of the Mozambique border. It is imperative that all future biogeographical studies on the South African inshore marine biota include detailed collections north of St. Lucia. The remaining 440 km of the South African east coast (southern and central Kwazulu-Natal Province) is populated by a mixture of tropical and temperate elements| with only 2% endemism in this data set. This| thus| represents a true overlap region| with relatively equal numbers of species with affinities in the temperate Agulhas and tropical Indo-West Pacific floras| rather than a distinctive sub-tropical marine province| as the South African east coast is considered to be by most previous authors. The distinction between this overlap region and the south coast (Agulhas) region proper is not as clearly distinct. The change from a temperate to a tropical flora shows a relative increase in green algae from 15% to 25% of the species present. Criteria for the delineation of marine biogeographical regions are critically discussed| and it is concluded that the monitoring of distributions of all species| including rare species| is necessary. This is particularly relevant with regard to using these data to assess effects of potential changes in seawater temperature| including those which may be caused by global warming. Criteria for the delimitation of biogeographic entities such as 'marine provinces' need to be clearly spelt out in all investigations. 6573,2004,2,2,Will marine dimethylsulfide emissions amplify or alleviate global warming? A model study,Dimethylsulfide (DMS) is the most abundant volatile sulfur compound at the sea surface and has a strong marine phytoplanktonic origin. Once outgased into the atmosphere| it contributes to the formation of sulfate aerosol particles that affect the radiative budget as precursors of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). It has been postulated that climate may be partly modulated by variations in DMS production. We test this hypothesis in the context of anthro pogenic climate change and present here| modelled for the first time| an estimate of the radiative impact resulting from changes in DMS air-sea fluxes caused by global warming. At 2 x CO2| our model estimates a small increase (3%) in the global DMS flux to the atmosphere but with large spatial heterogeneities (from -15% to 30%). The radiative perturbation resulting from the DMS-induced change in cloud albedo is estimated to be -0.05 W.m(-2)| which represents only a small negative climate feedback on global warming. However| there are large regional changes| such as a perturbation of up to -1.5 W.m(-2) in summer between 40degreesS and 50degreesS| that can impact the regional climate. In the Southern Ocean| the radiative impact resulting from changes in the DMS cycle may partly alleviate the radiative forcing resulting from anthropogenic CO2. 1928,2004,3,4,Will OPEC lose from the Kyoto Protocol?,A range of energy-economy models forecast losses to members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) should the Kyoto Protocol come into force. These forecasts are a powerful influence in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations. They are used by OPEC to advance the agenda on the impacts of response measures| covertly arguing for compensation for lost oil revenues arising from implementation of the Protocol. This paper discusses this issue| and explores the key assumptions of these models and their uncertainties. Assumptions about carbon leakage| future availability of oil reserves| substitution| innovation| and capital turnover are considered. The paper suggests that losses will not affect OPEC countries equally| and that these losses are not likely to be as substantial as the models forecast. A range of policy measures are proposed to lessen any impact the Protocol may have on OPEC. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1954,2004,2,4,Wind-mediated diel variation in flow speed in a Jamaican back reef environment: Effects on ecological processes,The movement of water plays an important role in a number of physiological (e.g.| metabolic rate| nutrient uptake) and ecological (e.g.| foraging| fertilization) processes for coral reef organisms. In the back reef of Discovery Bay| Jamaica| daytime mean flow speeds were on average| 61% greater than at night during a given 24 hr period. Wind speed was a significant predictor of flow speed in these shallow water environments| with the variation in wind speed able to explain 30% of the variation in flow speed. Porter's (1985) yearlong wind speed record in Discovery Bay indicated that the time of maximum daily wind speed occurred during daylight hours for 93% of the year. Activity of the fireworm| Hermodice carunculata (Pallas| 1766)| represented by total abundance in six| 1 x 30 m transects was negatively correlated with flow speed. Atmospheric and oceanographic conditions enhancing wind-dependent water flow in back reef environments include prevalent tradewinds and negligible tidal currents| which suggests that the diel variation in flow speed documented for Discovery Bay may be a common phenomenon in similar environments. Such predictable environmental variability may be an important selective agent shaping the evolution of diel rhythms of reef invertebrates and algae. Therefore| recent atmospheric and climatological shifts (e.g.| frequency of El Nino events| global climate change) may exert additional selective pressure on the organisms found in these environments. 2030,2004,2,4,Yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) hibernate socially,Of 14 species of marmots (genus Marmota| Family Sciuridae)| only 2| the woodchuck (M. monax) and yellow-bellied man-not (M. flaviventris)| have not been reported to be obligate social hibernators. There is one published report of yellow-bellied man-not juveniles hibernating together at a subalpine site| and social hibernation was reported at a single high-alpine site. Solitary hibernation is expected in woodchucks because they do not share burrows during summer| but is unexpected in yellow-bellied marmots| a harem-polygynous species where females may share burrows and have extensive home-range overlap with female kin during summer. We documented emergence patterns in 13 matrilines to determine whether adult marmots hibernate socially. We found that adult males hibernated with 1 or more adult females| and mothers hibernated with their offspring. Therefore| we conclude that yellow-bellied marmots hibernate socially. There is| however| no evidence that suggests that yellow-bellied marmots receive social thermoregulatory benefits from social hibernation. Documenting social hibernation required us to quantify patterns of emergence from hibernation. Throughout our subalpine site| emergence appears to be getting earlier; a result consistent with a previous report based on 1 colony site and which suggests the effects of global climate change are affecting hibernation patterns. 6972,2005,3,2,"Carbon-money exchange" to contain global warming and deforestation,This paper builds a basic theory of "Carbon-Money Exchange" in which carbon as currency in nature's household (ecosystems) and money as currency in humankind's household (economy) are exchanged just like in a foreign exchange. The simple chemical equation below makes it possible CO2 -> C + O-2 = C + O-2 -> CO2. The left-hand side represents the work of plants to remove atmospheric CO2. The right-hand side represents the work of humans as fossil fuel consumers to produce it. The exchange of the two currencies is possible by copying the fossil fuel market. The paper concludes that this new exchange can automatically contain global warming and deforestation| replacing onerous emissions trading. Moreover| it could revolutionize the conventional economy| creating counter-capitalism| or "carbonism". (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7191,2005,2,4,20th century variations of the soil moisture content in East-Hungary in connection with global warming,Recently| climate change is one of the most current scientific problems. As a result of the change of climatic factors| such regional problems are emphasized by falling of underground water level| decrease of water supply and drying of the upper soil layer. The aim of the study is to detect 20th century variations of the soil moisture content in East-Hungary with statistical analysis of objective time series based on meteorological data. Furthermore| by determining representatively long dry and wet periods| management of agro-ecological problems related to the soil moisture content are supported. Palmer drought severity index time series of five meteorological stations in East-Hungary are analysed in the paper for the growing season between 1901 and 1999. Significant fluctuations of the soil moisture content were detected in the region for the 20th century; moreover| the soil became drier in the recent decades. With the help of the "break-point analysis" decade-long dry and wet periods were defined for the aim of climatic research. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7168,2005,5,3,35 ka BP climate simulations in East Asia and probing the mechanisms of climate changes,Paleoclimate modeling has become an important tool to detect the future climate of the global warming that is difficult to be validated. The paleoclimate modeling has to be evaluated by regionally geological data in order to determine if it is able to reproduce a reality of climate states. Geological evidence shows that there was a warm-wet interstadial at 35000 +/- 3000 a BP in China| which provides an important climate period to be historical analogue for the future climate changes induced by greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated geological records of later phase of the MSI3 from China also provide basements for evaluation of 35 ka BP climate modeling. This paper reports the paleoclimate experiments applied by various forces| and validates the outputs by geological data| consequently improving the boundary conditions in the experiments and making the paleoclimates more approach the reality. The simulations show an increased temperature in the mid-low latitudes and an extended rain-belt northwards in East Asia| while a decreased temperature in high latitudes and a strong exchange of the N-S atmospheric circulation. As there is only ca. 10-15 ka from 35 ka BP to the LGM (21 ka BP) during which climate rapidly changed from a warm-wet interstadial to a typical ice age| this simulation provides scientific basis to recognize the criteria of global warming and trends of natural climate development.
1819,2005,5,4,A 25 m.y. isotopic record of paleodiet and environmental change from fossil mammals and paleosols from the NE margin of the Tibetan Plateau,We use the carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions of fossil tooth enamel and paleosols to reconstruct the late Cenozoic history of vegetation and environmental change in the Linxia Basin at the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. The delta(13)C values of fossil enamel from a diverse group of herbivores and of paleosol carbonate and organic matter indicate that C4 grasses were either absent or insignificant in the Linxia Basin prior to similar to 2-3 Ma and only became a significant component of local ecosystems in the Quaternary. This is in striking contrast to what was observed in Pakistan| Nepal| Africa and the Americas where C4 plants expanded rapidly in the late Miocene as indicated by a positive delta(13)C shift in mammalian tooth enamel and paleosols. The delta(18)O results from the same herbivore species show several significant shifts in climate in the late Cenozoic. Most notably| a positive delta(18)O shift after similar to 7 Ma indicates a shift to warmer and/or drier conditions and is comparable in timing and direction to the delta(18)O shift observed in paleosol carbonates in Pakistan and Nepal. This late Miocene climate change observed in the Indian sub-continent and in the Linxia Basin| however| seems to be a regional manifestation of a global climate change. The lack of evidence for C4 plants in the Linxia Basin prior to similar to 2-3 Ma suggests that the East Asian summer monsoon| which brings precipitation into northern China during the summer and creates optimal conditions for the growth of C4 grasses| was probably not strong enough to affect this part of China throughout much of the Neogene. This implies that the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau may not have reached the present-day elevation across its vast extent to support a strong East Asian monsoon system before similar to 2-3 Ma. Our data also suggest that regional climatic conditions played an important role in controlling the expansion of C4 plants. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7017,2005,3,3,A 3-year field measurement of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice paddies in China: Effects of water regime| crop residue| and fertilizer application,[1] A 3-year field experiment was conducted to simultaneously measure methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from rice paddies under various agricultural managements including water regime| crop residue incorporation| and synthetic fertilizer application. In contrast with continuous flooding| midseason drainage incurred a drop in CH4 fluxes while triggering substantial N2O emission. Moreover| N2O emissions after midseason drainage depended strongly on whether or not fields were waterlogged due to intermittent irrigation. Urea application tended to reduce CH4 emissions but significantly increased N2O emissions. Under a water regime of flooding-midseason drainage-reflooding-moist intermittent irrigation but without water logging (F-D-F-M)| both wheat straw and rapeseed cake incorporation increased CH4 emissions by 252%| and rapeseed cake increased N2O by 17% while wheat straw reduced N2O by 19% compared to controls. Seasonal average fluxes of CH4 ranged from 25.4 mg m(-2) d(-1) when no additional residue was applied under the water regime of flooding-midseason drainage-reflooding to 116.9 mg m(-2) d(-1) when wheat straw was applied at 2.25 t ha(-1) under continuous irrigation flooding. Seasonal average fluxes of N2O varied between 0.03 mg N2O- N m(-2) d(-1) under continuous flooding and 5.23 mg N2O- N m(-2) d(-1) under the water regime of F-D-F-M. Both crop residue- induced CH4| ranging from 9 to 15% of the incorporated residue C| and N2O| ranging from 0.01 to 1.78% of the applied N| were dependent on water regime in rice paddies. Estimations of net global warming potentials (GWPs) indicate that water management by flooding with midseason drainage and frequent water logging without the use of organic amendments is an effective option for mitigating the combined climatic impacts from CH4 and N2O in paddy rice production. 6775,2005,5,4,A brief history of Great Basin pikas,Aim Within the past few decades| seven of the 25 historically described populations of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in the Great Basin of arid western North America appear to have become extinct. In this paper| the prehistoric record for pikas in the Great Basin is used to place these losses in deeper historical context. Location The Great Basin| or area of internal drainage| of the western United States. Methods The location| elevation| and age of all reported prehistoric Great Basin specimens of American pikas were extracted from the literature. Elevations of extinct pika populations were arrayed through time| and latitudes and longitudes of those populations used to determine changing distances of those populations from the nearest extant populations. Results The average elevation of now-extinct Great Basin pika populations during the late Wisconsinan (c. 40|000-10|000 radiocarbon years ago) and early Holocene (c. 10|000-7500 years ago) was 1750 m. During the hot and dry middle Holocene (c. 7500-4500 years ago)| the average elevation of these populations rose 435 m| to 2168 m. All prehistorically known late Holocene (c. 4500-200 years ago) populations in the Great Basin are from mountain ranges that currently support populations of this animal| but historic period losses have caused the average elevation of pika populations to rise an additional 152 m. The total elevational increase| from the late Wisconsinan and early Holocene to today| has been 783 m. As lower elevation pika populations were lost| their distribution increasingly came to resemble its modern form. During the late Wisconsinan| now-extinct pika populations were located an average of 170 km from the nearest extant population. By the late Holocene| this distance had declined to 30 km. Main conclusions Prehistoric alterations in the distribution of pika population in the Great Basin were driven by climate change and attendant impacts on vegetation. Today| Great Basin pikas contend with both climate change and anthropogenic impacts and thus may be on the brink of extinction. 6895,2005,3,4,A comparative study of water as a refrigerant with some current refrigerants,Water as a refrigerant (R718) is compared with some current natural (R717 and R290) and synthetic refrigerants (R134a| R12| R22| and R152a) regarding environmental issues including ozone depletion potential (ODP) and global warming potential (GWP)| safety (toxicity and flammability)| operating cost| refrigeration capacity and coefficient of performance (COP). A computer code simulating a simple vapour compression cycle was developed to calculate COPS| pressure ratios| outlet temperatures of the refrigerants from the compressor| and evaporator temperatures above which water theoretically yields better COPs than the other refrigerants investigated. The main difference of this study from other similar studies is that both evaporator temperature and condenser temperature are changed as changing parameters| but the temperature lift| which is the temperature difference between condenser and evaporator| are held constant and the irreversibility during the compression process is also taken into consideration by taking the isentropic efficiency different from 100%. It is found that for evaporator temperatures above 20 degrees C and small temperature lift (5 K)| R718 gives the highest COP assuming exactly the same cycle parameters. For medium temperature lifts (20-25 K)| this evaporator temperature is above 35 degrees C| whereas for even greater temperature lifts it decreases again. Furthermore| with increased values of polytropic efficiency| R718 can maintain higher COPS over other refrigerants| at lower evaporator temperatures. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons. Ltd. 6965,2005,3,4,A comparative study on the autoxidation of dimethyl ether (DME) comparison with diethyl ether (DEE) and diisopropyl ether (DIPE),The Japanese government is planning to introduce DME as a substituted energy for oil and LNG. Introduction of DME could contribute greatly to both the prevention of global warming and the formation of resource-recycling societies. In these circumstances| a safety assessment of DME is very important when DME is used on a large scale. There is a possibility that prolonged exposure in air induces autoxidation to produce explosive organic peroxides during transportation and storage of DME. Therefore| the reactivity of DME with oxygen and the mechanism of the autoxidation were investigated. Accelerating Rate Calorimetry (ARC) was used to evaluate the thermal stability of DME and DIPE| a known peroxide producers| under adiabatic and various atmospheric conditions. In ARC studies of DME under oxygen| exothermic decompositions were detected although its self-heating rate was low in comparison with DIPE. Oven storage tests were carried out and iodimetry was used to measure the concentration of peroxides produced from DME in comparison with DIPE and DEE. However. no products could be found for DME either by GC/MS or by iodimetry| while some evidence of autoxidation of both DEE and DIPE were obtained from these experiments. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7129,2005,3,3,A concept for simultaneous wasteland reclamation| fuel production| and socio-economic development in degraded areas in India: Need| potential and perspectives of Jatropha plantations,The concept of substituting bio-diesel produced from plantations on eroded soils for conventional diesel fuel has gained widespread attention in India. In recent months| the Indian central Government as well as some state governments have expressed their support for bringing marginal lands| which cannot be used for food production| under cultivation for this purpose. Jatropha curcas is a well established plant in India. It produces oil-rich seeds| is known to thrive on eroded lands| and to require only limited amounts of water| nutrients and capital inputs. This plant offers the option both to cultivate wastelands and to produce vegetable oil suitable for conversion to bio-diesel. More versatile than hydrogen and new propulsion systems such as fuel cell technology| bio-diesel can be used in today's vehicle fleets worldwide and may also offer a viable path to sustainable transportation| i.e.| lower greenhouse gas emissions and enhanced mobility| even in remote areas. Mitigation of global warming and the creation of new regional employment opportunities can be important cornerstones of any forward looking transportation system for emerging economies. 1779,2005,2,4,A conceptual model of ecological interactions in the mangrove estuaries of the Florida Everglades,A brackish water ecotone of coastal bays and lakes| mangrove forests| salt marshes| tidal creeks| and upland hammocks separates Florida Bay| Biscayne Bay| and the Gulf of Mexico from the freshwater Everglades. The Everglades mangrove estuaries are characterized by salinity gradients that vary spatially with topography and vary seasonally and inter-annually with rainfall| tide| and freshwater flow from the Everglades. Because of their location at the lower end of the Everglades drainage basin| Everglades mangrove estuaries have been affected by upstream water management practices that have altered the freshwater heads and flows and that affect salinity gradients. Additionally| interannual variation in precipitation patterns| particularly those caused to El Nino events| control freshwater inputs and salinity dynamics in these estuaries. Two major external drivers on this system are water management activities and global climate change. These drivers lead to two major ecosystem stressors: reduced freshwater flow volume and duration| and sea-level rise. Major ecological attributes include mangrove forest production| soil accretion| and resilience; coastal lake submerged aquatic vegetation; resident mangrove fish populations; wood stork (Mycteria americana) and roseate spoonbill (Platelea ajaja) nesting colonies; and estuarine crocodilian populations. Causal linkages between stressors and attributes include coastal transgression| hydroperiods| salinity gradients| and the "white zone" freshwater/estuarine interface. The functional estuary and its ecological attributes| as influenced by sea level and freshwater flow| must be viewed as spatially dynamic| with a possible near-term balancing of transgression but ultimately a long-term continuation of inland movement. Regardless of the spatio-temporal timing of this transgression| a salinity gradient supportive of ecologically functional Everglades mangrove estuaries will be required to maintain the integrity of the South Florida ecosystem. 1842,2005,5,4,A cosmogenic nuclide chronology of the last glacial transition in North-West Nelson| New Zealand - New insights in Southern Hemisphere climate forcing during the last deglaciation,We present a new glacial chronology for the last glacial interglacial transition| c. 20 to 10 ka| from the Cobb Valley| NW Nelson| New Zealand| based on a suite of Be-10 and Al-26 cosmogenic exposure ages. This chronology describes one of the most comprehensive deglaciation sequences from a late Quaternary valley system in the Southern Hemisphere. We chronicle the decay from the last (local) glacial maximum as follows: onset of the last deglaciation that commenced no earlier than 18-19 ka| followed by numerous short-term still-stands and/or minor re-advances over the ensuing 3-4 kyr| and complete evacuation of ice by 14 ka. We find no evidence to indicate a late glacial re-advance commensurate with the Northern Hemisphere Younger Dryas chronozone. The absence of a major glacial re-advance in this valley during the latter stages of the last glacial interglacial transition (LGIT) precludes a thermal decline in excess of about 3 degrees C and suggests no decline. The absence of late LGIT re-advances in the mountains of North-West Nelson| while deglacial readvances occurred in the main ranges of the Southern Alps can be best explained if westerly wind forcing rather than large-scale thermal decline is the primary control on glacier fluctuations| at least during the deglaciation. These findings challenge models of global climate change predicated on synchrony of millennial-scale glacial transitions due to thermal changes between Northern and Southern Hemispheres. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V| All rights reserved. 6979,2005,2,4,A falsification of the thermal specialization paradigm: compensation for elevated temperatures in Antarctic fishes,Specialization to a particular environment is one of the main factors used to explain species distributions. Antarctic fishes are often cited as a classic example to illustrate the specialization process and are regarded as the archetypal stenotherms. Here we show that the Antarctic fish Pagothenia borchgrevinki has retained the capacity to compensate for chronic temperature change. By displaying astounding plasticity in cardiovascular response and metabolic control| the fishes maintained locomotory performance at elevated temperatures. Our falsification of the specialization paradigm indicates that the effect of climate change on species distribution and extinction may be overestimated by current models of global warming. 6959,2005,3,3,A figure of merit assessment of the routes to hydrogen,The efficient use of primary energy sources| which can be used for hydrogen production| is addressed by a consideration of four key measures| which reflect the ability of different sources and processing routes to meet underlying needs and the practical demands of energy on a large scale. The measures considered are carbon dioxide emission reduction| primary energy availability| land use implications and hydrogen production costs. Fourteen pathways to hydrogen are considered involving fossil fuels and nuclear energy as well as the range of renewable sources| and including additional strategies for carbon sequestration. The overall comparison of routes| based on simple figures-of-merit| shows a clear division between those using renewable energies and those associated with the traditional 'high energy density' primary sources. Emerging from the work is a clearer view of the implications of following a particular production path| the limitations of certain technologies and the research challenges which must be met in addressing future fuel options and global warming. © 2005 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6817,2005,4,4,A generalized framework for solving dynamic optimization problems using the artificial chemical process paradigm: Applications to particulate processes and discrete dynamic systems,The solution of optimal control problems (OCPs) becomes a challenging task when the analyzed system includes non-convex| nondifferentiable| or equation-free models in the set of constraints. To solve OCPs under such conditions| a new procedure| LARES-PR| is proposed. The procedure is based on integrating the LARES algorithm with a generalized representation of the control function. LARES is a global stochastic optimization algorithm based on the artificial chemical process paradigm. The generalized representation of the control function consists of variable-length segments| which permits the use of a combination of different types of finite elements (linear| quadratic| etc.) and/or specialized functions. The functional form and corresponding parameters are determined element-wise by solving a combinatorial optimization problem. The element size is also determined as part of the solution of the optimization problem| using a novel two-step encoding strategy. These building blocks result in an algorithm that is flexible and robust in solving optimal control problems. Furthermore| implementation is very simple. The algorithm's performance is studied with a challenging set of benchmark problems. Then LARES-PR is utilized to solve optimal control problems of systems described by population balance equations| including crystallization| nano-particle formation by nucleation/coalescence mechanism| and competitive reactions in a disperse system modeled by the Monte Carlo method. The algorithm is also applied to solving the DICE model of global warming| a complex discrete-time model. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 1808,2005,4,4,A hydrologic contribution to risk assessment for the Caspian Sea,The Caspian Sea (CS)| the world's largest inland sea| may also be considered as large-scale limnic system. Due to strong fluctuations of its water level during the 20th century and the flooding of vast areas in a highly vulnerable coastal zone| economic and environmental risk potentials have to be considered. Since the major water input into the CS is attributed to the Volga river| the understanding of its long-term flow process is necessary for an appropriate risk assessment for the CS and its coastal area. Therefore| a top-down approach based on statistical analyses of long-term Volga flow series is pursued. For the series of annual mean flow (MQ) of the Volga river basin during the 20th century| a complex oscillation pattern was identified. Analyses for multiple gauges in the Volga river basin and Eurasian reference basins revealed that this oscillation pattern resulted from the superposition of oscillations with periods of similar to 30 years (MQ) in the western part of the Volga river basin| and similar to 14 years (flow volume of snowmelt events) and similar to 20 years (flow volume of summer and autumn) in the eastern part of the Volga river basin (Kama river basin). Almost synchronous minima or maxima of these oscillations occurred just in the periods of substantial changes of the Caspian Sea level (CSL). It can thus be assumed that the described mechanism is fundamental for an understanding of the CSL development during the 20th century. Regarding the global climate change| it is still difficult to predict reliably the development of the CSL for the 21st century. Consequently| we suggest an ongoing| interdisciplinary research co-operation among climatology| hydrology| hydraulics| ecology and spatial data management. (c) 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 1845,2005,4,4,A method for estimating vulnerability of Douglas-fir growth to climate change in the northwestern US,Borrowing from landscape ecology| atmospheric science| and integrated assessment| we aim to understand the complex interactions that determine productivity in montane forests and utilize such relationships to forecast montane forest vulnerability under global climate change. Specifically| we identify| relationships for precipitation and temperature that govern the spatiotemporal variability in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) growth by seeking similarities in patterns of growth/climate models across a significant portion of the climatological range of the species. In the 21(st) century and beyond| sustainable forestry will depend on successful adaptation to the impacts of climate change and climate variability on forest structure and function. The combination of these foci will allow improved prediction of the fate of montane forests over a wide range of biogeoclimatic conditions in western North America and thus allow improved management strategies for adapting to climate change. We describe a multi-disciplinary strategy for analyzing growth variability as a function of climate over a broad range of local-to-regional influences and demonstrate the efficacy of this sampling method in defining regional gradients of growth-limiting factors. 1788,2005,2,4,A model to predict climate-change impact on fish catch in the world oceans,Water temperature plays a very important role in fish production. The assessment of the impact of water-temperature changes on fish catches in world fishery is essential for the sustainable management of world fishery resources. Fish catch includes different species| but using information analysis| it is shown that total fish catch can be used without significant loss of information about the dynamic properties of the system. A new method for the forecasting of the fish catch of the major fishing areas in the world's oceans under global climate change (temperature) has been developed. This method predicts the tendency (increase or decrease) for fish catch| with quantitative predictor's power| if the temperature is known. This method has been applied to the Indian Ocean to assess the climate-change impact on fish catch. Based on the temperatures predicted using the CLIMate-BiospheRE model for the years 2000-2100| a decrease of fish catch in the Indian Ocean| with the confidence of the predictor's power at >= 90%| has been predicted. 6906,2005,2,3,A modeling study of dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms for summer drying in response to global warming,Past studies have suggested that increasing atmospheric CO2 will lead to a significant reduction of soil moisture during summer in the extratropics. These studies showed an increase in wintertime rainfall over most mid-latitude continental regions when CO2 is doubled| an earlier snowmelt season and onset of springtime evaporation| and a higher ratio of evaporation to precipitation in summer. These factors led to large-scale increases in soil moisture in winter and decreases in summer. We find that the above processes are important in simulated summer drying in a newly developed climate model. In addition to these thermodynamic processes| we find that changes in atmospheric circulation play an important role in regional hydroclimatic changes. Additional experiments show that the atmospheric circulation changes are forced by the CO2-induced warming of the ocean| particularly the tropical ocean. These results highlight the importance of sea surface temperature changes for regional hydroclimatic changes. 7023,2005,2,2,A movable trigger: Fossil fuel CO2 and the onset of the next glaciation,[1] The initiation of northern hemisphere ice sheets in the last 800 kyr appears to be closely controlled by minima in summer insolation forcing at 65 &DEG; N. Beginning from an initial typical interglacial pCO(2) of 280 ppm| the CLIMBER-2 model initiates an ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere when insolation drops 0.7 σ ( standard deviation) or 15 W/m(2) below the mean. This same value is required to explain the history of climate using an orbitally driven conceptual model based on insolation and ice volume thresholds (Paillard| 1998). When the initial baseline pCO(2) is raised in CLIMBER-2| a deeper minimum in summertime insolation is required to nucleate an ice sheet. Carbon cycle models indicate that &SIM; 25% of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years| and &SIM; 7% will remain beyond one hundred thousand years ( Archer| 2005). We predict that a carbon release from fossil fuels or methane hydrate deposits of 5000 Gton C could prevent glaciation for the next 500|000 years| until after not one but two 400 kyr cycle eccentricity minima. The duration and intensity of the projected interglacial period are longer than have been seen in the last 2.6 million years. 1908,2005,4,3,A multigenerational game model to analyze sustainable development,This paper deals with a multigeneration game that provides a new rationale for representing time preference in very long term cost benefit analysis| as it happens typically in the economics of global climate change. One defines an intergenerational game where each generation has a random life duration and transfers the control of the economic system to the next generation at the end of its life. The payoff to a generation is a discounted sum of the expected consumption by the whole infinite sequence of generations| starting with the current one. The equilibrium is characterized by a dynamic programming equation; a unique solution is proved to exist; a numerical technique is proposed and implemented on a continuous time simplified version of the model DICE94. The results show the influence of this form of altruism on the asymptotic steady states of the economy subject to a global climate change effect. 6899,2005,3,4,A note on how to avoid contrail cirrus,Aircraft induced cirrus clouds have a major effect on climate. Here we use operational radiosonde data with high vertical resolution to estimate the effect of a small change in flight altitudes on the contrail and cirrus formation. It is shown that a substantial fraction of contrails and contrail induced cirrus can be avoided by relatively small changes in flight level| due to the shallowness of ice-super-saturation layers. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6802,2005,4,4,A precise| unified method for estimating carbon storage in cool-temperate deciduous forest ecosystems,Accurate estimation of the storage and spatial distribution of carbon in forest ecosystems is essential when studying the role of these ecosystems in global warming. Appropriate methods and reliable data are thus necessary. In this study| we developed a precise| unifying estimation method and assessed seven components of carbon storage in a cool-temperate deciduous forest ecosystem in central Japan. This method is based on detailed dividing of carbon pools in forest ecosystem| unifying| and systemic survey and estimate for each divided carbon component using precise and suitable methods| respectively. Data and methods used include tree census and allornetry method between diameter at breast height (DBH)-biomass for tree| spectral reflectance measurement using a handy-type spectroradiometer for floor vegetation (Sasa)| standing dead tree census (diameter at breast height and tree height) and allometry method between DBH-biomass and geometric calculation| detailed dry weight surveys for litter and coarse woody debris| detailed soil profile survey using profile digging and profile sampler measurement. The total carbon storage in the ecosystem equaled 440.6 t C ha(-1). Of the aboveground mass| 71.4 t C ha(-1) was stored in living trees. 5.3 t in standing dead trees| and 2.8 t in Sasa senanensis (the understory vegetation). Of the belowground mass| 19.6 t C ha(-1) was stored in living roots| 1.8 t in the roots of the standing dead tree| 15.3 t in plant litter| 6.1 t in coarse woody debris| and 318.3 t in the mineral soil. Carbon was stored unevenly throughout the ecosystem| and storage varied as a function of topography. The minimum and maximum amounts of stored carbon were 125.1 and 726.9 t C ha(-1)| respectively the highest and lowest amounts were found in a valley (average| 556.7 t C ha(-1)) and on a west-facing slope (average| 381.3 t C ha(-1))| respectively. Compared with other ecosystems| carbon storage in this forest ecosystem was higher in the soil and lower in the vegetation. The results also demonstrate the importance of gravels and stones in the soil and of standardizing the soil sampling depth. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7162,2005,2,3,A projection of the effects of the climate change induced by increased CO2 on extreme hydrologic events in the western US,The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on the frequency of extreme hydrologic events in the Western United States (WUS) for the 10-yr period of 2040-2049 are examined using dynamically downscaled regional climate change signals. For assessing the changes in the occurrence of hydrologic extremes| downscaled climate change signals in daily precipitation and runoff that are likely to indicate the occurrence of extreme events are examined. Downscaled climate change signals in the selected indicators suggest that the global warming induced by increased CO2 is likely to increase extreme hydrologic events in the WUS. The indicators for heavy precipitation events show largest increases in the mountainous regions of the northern California Coastal Range and the Sierra Nevada. Increased cold season precipitation and increased rainfall-portion of precipitation at the expense of snowfall in the projected warmer climate result in large increases in high runoff events in the Sierra Nevada river basins that are already prone to cold season flooding in today's climate. The projected changes in the hydrologic characteristics in the WUS are mainly associated with higher freezing levels in the warmer climate and increases in the cold season water vapor influx from the Pacific Ocean. 1823,2005,4,4,A regional| multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK,Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The 'Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England' (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-led| regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options| and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture| biodiversity| coasts and floodplains and water resources). The 'Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response' (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 x 5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output| as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10 x 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular| the role of scenarios| error propagation in linked models| model validity| transparency and transportability as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments. 6957,2005,2,4,A roadbed cooling approach for the construction of Qinghai-Tibet Railway,Over one half of the permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway is "warm" and approximately 40% ice-rich. Under global warming| the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway needs to consider climate changes over the next 50-100 years. Recent estimates indicate that the air temperature on the plateau will increase by 2.2-2.6 degrees C by 2050. Thus| the key to the success of the railway construction lies in preventing the permafrost underlying roadbeds from thawing. It has been more than 100 years since the first railway was built over permafrost. A frost damage ratio of greater than 30% has been reported for all the railroads built in permafrost regions. Based upon the experience and lessons learned from roadway constructions over permafrost| this paper proposes a more proactive design approach for the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. This approach focuses on cooling down the roadbed by lowering the ground temperature and is different from the passive method of preventing permafrost from thawing by simply increasing thermal resistance (e.g.| increasing embankment height and using insulating materials). This "roadbed cooling" design approach is especially relevant to "warm" and ice-rich permafrost areas. A number of measures can be taken to cool down the roadbed| including proper selection of roadbed material and configurations to adjust solar radiation| heat convection| and heat conduction patterns in and/or around the roadbed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6984,2005,4,4,A seasonally resolved bottom-water temperature record for the period ad 1866-2002 based on shells of Arctica islandica (Mollusca| North Sea),Existing studies on recent global warming are almost exclusively based on environmental data from the Earth's surface. Seasonal information on the effects of climate change on subsurface settings of mid to high latitudes is extremely scarce. Here| we present the first temperature proxy record from bottom (c. 50 m) water settings of the North Sea employing the oxygen isotope composition of ocean quahog shells. Results indicate that delta(18)O(aragonite) measured across shells of Arctica islandica can provide reliable estimates (+/- 0.25 to +/- 0.4 degrees C) of the ambient bottom water temperatures. Over the period AD 1880-2001| warming trends in bottom waters are of the order of 0.042 to 0.138 degrees C/decade. Apparently| the annual maximum -temperature trend shows a twofold increase over the past four decades (0.236 degrees C/decade) while the minimum-temperature trend has remained relatively stable (0.042 degrees C/decade). During the same time interval| however| annual maximum temperatures at the sea surface quadrupled. Shell oxygen-isotope-derived winter temperatures also provide a proxy for the winter North Atlantic oscillation index (WNAO). Some 28 to 50% of the variability in minimum temperatures below the thermocline can be explained by changes of the WNAO. Our new toot enables testing and verification of climate models prior to the 20th century greenhouse forcing. Copyright (c) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. 7004,2005,2,4,A semi-distributed monthly water balance model and its application in a climate change impact study in the middle and lower Yellow River basin,Human activities and climatic change have greatly impacted hydrological cycles and water resources planning in the Yellow River basin. In order to assess these impacts| a semi-distributed monthly water balance model was proposed and developed to simulate and predict the hydrological processes in the middle and lower Yellow River basin. GIS techniques were used as a tool to analyze topography| river networks| land-use| human activities| vegetation| and soil characteristics. The model parameters were calibrated in 35 gauged sub-basins in the middle Yellow River and then the relationships between the model parameters and the basin physical characteristics were established. A parameterization scheme was developed in which the model parameters were estimated for each grid element by regression and optimization methods. Based on the different outputs of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs)| the sensitivities to global warming of hydrology and water resources for the Yellow River basin were studied. The proposed models are capable of producing both the magnitude and timing of runoff and water resources conditions. The runoffs are found to be very sensitive to temperature increases and rainfall decreases. Results of the study also indicated that runoff is more sensitive to variation in precipitation than to increase in temperature. The additional uncertainty of climate change has posed a challenge to the existing water resources management practices| and the integration of water resources management will be necessary to enhance the water use efficiency in the Yellow River basin. 1856,2005,2,4,A South American bioinvasion case history: Limnoperna fortunei (Dunker| 1857)| the golden mussel,Two factors combine in this age of globalization to favor the establishment of alien species in natural environments: human activities and global climate change. This paper reviews the recent invasion of the golden mussel| Limnoperna fortunei| in South America| including its impacts in natural and human environments. This case study allows the identification of the likely impacts that morphologically and functionally similar invasive species will have in similar environments| such as in North America| which is considered to be at high risk of invasion by L. fortunei. 6912,2005,5,4,Abrupt and massive influx of terrestrial biomarkers into the marine environment at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary| Caravaca| Spain,The mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) boundary ca. 65 million years ago caused a major change in the nature and abundance of global life in Earth history. We present the first vertical higb-resolution records of molecular distributions of n-fatty acids across the K/T boundary at Caravaca (Spain). The results reveal that the first basal thin horizon (0 to +0.5 cm; 0 = K/T boundary) of the K/T boundary-clay layer showed as much as a similar to 35-fold increase in concentrations of terrestrial long-chain n-fatty acids (>= C-20)| representative of an eight-fold increase in mass accumulation rate| compared with the subjacent Cretaceous layers. Thereafter concentrations rapidly declined back to almost pre-boundary values within +3 cm above the K/T boundary. The abrupt increase in supply of terrestrial organic matter into the marine environment at the K/T boundary could have been caused by an enhanced riverine flux| probably due to heavy rains associated with global warming| combined with enhanced fragments of terrestrial higher-plants withered by acid rain and/or by temporal darkness and cooling. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7177,2005,4,4,Accurate estimation of tree positions in Larix leptolepis forest using portable imaging lidar data by hough transform,It was reported in IPCC 2000 that forest is one of the most important carbon sinks on Earth. Forests alleviate effects of global warming and absorb air pollutants as well. Essentially| forest management plays an important role in tackling environmental problems. Mapping exact position of trees in forest| which is one component of forest management| is not easy. Due to forests' complex structure and undergrowths| measuring works are difficult and take longer time by manual method. In this study| a ground-based remote sensing technique to estimate tree positions in forest has been developed using a portable imaging lidar. The lidar is a portable measuring instrument which uses near infra-red laser. The lidar system is only controlled by one man and measurements of tree positions only take a shorter time (i.e. about 8 minutes). Normally| natural trees do not grow straight and lean to other directions. In this case| the lidar can not directly measure the foot of the trees because of the undergrowths. Hence| the tree positions that were estimated from the center of the stem at measurable height (in most cases the measurable height is 2 m or more) are quite different from the actual tree position and the error is about 0.81 in in RMSE (Root Mean Square Error). A Hough transform method was therefore used to enable the measurement of leaning trees as well as those covered with thick undergrowths. By comparing the estimated tree positions using Hough transform and the manual measurements of 24 trees in about 1200 m(2) Japanese larch (Larix leptolepis) forest| statistical results showed an accuracy of 0.16 m in RMSE. 6879,2005,2,4,Adaptation to climate change: Genetic variation is both a short- and a long-term solution,We propose a methodology combining a biophysical site index model and a seed source transfer model based on both temperature and precipitation to estimate white spruce plantation yield under present and future global warming conditions. The biophysical site index model predicts dominant height at 25 years| which is further used to estimate plantation yield using yield tables. The transfer model shows that| on average| seed sources are best adapted to the temperature conditions where they presently grow| and give maximum yield under these conditions. However| this model also shows that transfer of seed sources to drier sites could improve plantation yield. To predict site index values under climate change conditions| values obtained from the biophysical site index model are corrected by a factor estimated using the seed source transfer model. Our simulation results predict that global warming should favour a slight increase in white spruce plantation yield in southern Quebec. However| one cannot expect to obtain similar yields from a seed source rapidly exposed to warmer conditions compared with a seed source that is presently growing under climatic conditions to which it has become adapted. It would take several generations (adaptation lag) for a seed source to adapt to warmer conditions. We believe that the method we propose will be helpful in identifying the most productive seed source to be used at any given location in the province| and in revising seed source transfer rules. 6826,2005,2,4,Adapting to climate change in a dryland mountain environment in Kenya,Global warming is likely to lead to a variety of changes in local climatic conditions| including potential increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as drought| floods| and storms. Present capacity to respond to and manage climatic variability| including extreme events| is an important component of adjustments to climatic changes. In particular| identifying and addressing constraints on local adaptation mechanisms-whether political| economic or social in nature-is critical to developing effective adaptation policies. The drylands of Kenya present great survival challenges to the people living in these areas. The hilltops in the drylands provide favorable climate and resources for adapting to climate change. The present paper examines the role that one particular hilltop| Endau in Kitui District| eastern Kenya| plays in processes of local adaptation to climatic variability and drought. The project presented here investigated how conflict and exclusion from key hilltop resources constrain adaptation among the population groups living around the hilltop| and how these constraints are negotiated| addressed| or even exacerbated through institutional arrangements and development activities. 6811,2005,3,3,Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon ratios: Analysis of published data and implications for climate forcing,[1] Measurements of organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) concentrations over a variety of locations worldwide have been analyzed to infer the spatial distributions of the ratios of OC to BC. Since these ratios determine the relative amounts of scattering and absorption| they are often used to estimate the radiative forcing due to aerosols. An artifact in the protocol for filter measurements of OC has led to widespread overestimates of the ratio of OC to BC in atmospheric aerosols. We developed a criterion to correct for this artifact and analyze corrected OC to BC ratios. The OC to BC ratios| ranging from 1.3 to 2.4| appear relatively constant and are generally unaffected by seasonality| sources| or technology changes| at the locations considered here. The ratios compare well with emission inventories over Europe and China but are a factor of 2 lower in other regions. The reduced estimate for OC/BC in aerosols strengthens the argument that reduction of soot emissions maybe a useful approach to slow global warming. 1884,2005,4,4,Aerosol properties and their spatial and temporal variations over North China in spring 2001,Aerosol properties and their spatial and temporal variations over North China were analysed based on ground- based radiometer data for spring 2001. On the basis of the retrievals from sun/ sky radiance and broad- band radiation measurements at four AERONET stations and eight first- class radiation stations over North China| the analysis comprised a detailed description of aerosol loading| size and absorption in this period. The impact of dust events on aerosol properties over the downwind region was emphasized. Heavy aerosol loading and notable temporal variation over North China were revealed by both datasets. The average aerosol optical depth at 750 nm at the eight radiation stations ranged from 0.32 in Ejinaqi to 0.68 in Beijing| with the averaged coefficient of variation being 70%. Aerosol optical depth was dominantly contributed to by dust over western China| with 68% ( +/- 5%) of aerosol optical depth at 550 nm being attributed to large dust aerosols. A dramatic increase in aerosol optical depth associated with the remarkable decrease in the Angstrom wavelength exponent was observed in Beijing and Xianghe during the dust episode. This indicated that a huge number of large particles were emitted into the atmosphere during the dust period| with the result that the contribution to aerosol optical depth from coarse particles approached the value observed in the dust source region. Anthropogenic pollution also frequently contributed to the high aerosol optical depth in Beijing and Xianghe| but this was characterized by fine particles| with more than 70% of aerosol optical depth at 550 nm being attributed to fine particles. Pure desert aerosol in Chinese dust source regions absorbs much less solar radiation than predicted by known aerosol models. The retrieved single- scattering albedo was around 0.98 ( +/- 0.01) and had little wavelength dependence| which is in agreement with the ground- based and satellite retrievals in other dust source regions. Contrarily| anthropogenic aerosol exhibits much stronger absorption in the urban region| with the single- scattering albedo ranging from 0.89 +/- 0.04 (at 440 nm) to 0.83 +/- 0.05 (at 1020 nm). Due to the large difference in the absorption between dust and anthropogenic aerosol| the consequence of the input of a large volume of dust aerosols is not only to enhance the aerosol loading but also to reduce the aerosol absorption. Retrievals in Beijing showed that the single- scattering albedo increased to about 0.90 and had little spectral dependence when anthropogenic pollution and a dust event together affected Beijing; as for the pure dust period| it ranged from 0.92 at 440 nm to 0.97 at 1020 nm. The significant decrease in the aerosol absorption due to the dust outbreak can result in a decrease in aerosol atmospheric heating efficiency; this warrants further research since the increasing trend of aerosol loading with strong absorption in China is supposed to play an active role in regional and global climate change and the hydrological cycle. 6787,2005,2,4,Alleviation of summer drought boosts establishment success of Pinus sylvestris in a Mediterranean mountain: an experimental approach,We performed an irrigation experiment to study the impact of summer drought on Pinus sylvestris establishment at its southernmost distribution limit. Watering was done during the first growing season simulating mesic summer conditions| and we monitored the consequences for survival and growth during the first growing season and the delayed consequences on the second growing season. In addition| we considered the heterogeneity created by the microhabitats| where seeds are found after dispersal (bare soil| under shrubs| and under adult pines). Summer drought was the main mortality factor in all the microhabitats. Watering increased emergence and doubled seedling survival compared to non-watered control sites. Differences were even higher when the cumulative effect on emergence and survival was considered| with an overall recruitment of 22.4% in watered plots vs. 7.9% in control. Irrigation increased growth in bare soil and under shrubs| but had scant effect on growth under pines| suggesting that radiation was the limiting factor in this microhabitat. The positive effect of irrigation on growth parameters persisted during the second growing season despite water was not added the second year| showing delayed consequences of drought on seedling performance. Summer drought thus limits Pinus sylvestris establishment in these southernmost forests by reducing both recruitment and growth. This might lead to the development of a remnant dynamic in these relict populations under the current regional increase in dryness and rainfall variability associated with global warming. 1829,2005,5,4,Alluvial stratigraphic evidence for channel incision during the Mediaeval Warm Period on the central Great Plains| USA,Alluvial valley fills from tributaries to the upper Republican River| southwest Nebraska| USA| provide soil- and morpho-stratigraphic evidence for an episode of channel incision that occurred between c. I 100 and 800 C-14 yr BP| based on 11 new radiocarbon ages. This local episode of channel incision correlates with other alluvial stratigraphic studies from the central Great Plains and demonstrates regionally synchronous fluvial behaviour. Proxy records of palaeohydrologic conditions in and around the Great Plains (including lacustrine| aeolian and geomorphological sources) indicate that channel incision correlates with a multicentennial episode of common| widespread drought. Temporally| this drought episode corresponds to the period recognized in many regions as the Mediaeval Warm Period (MWP). Therefore| this research demonstrates: (1) a relationship in the semi-arid central Great Plains between drought and increased fluvial incision; and (2) a local/regional geomorphic response to a particular episode of global climate change. 1796,2005,2,4,Alterations in the production and concentration of selected alkaloids as a function of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature: implications for ethno-pharmacology,The influence of recent and projected changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] with and without concurrent increases in air temperature was determined with respect to growth characteristics and production of secondary compounds (alkaloids) in tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) and jimson weed (Datura stramonium L.) over a ca. 50-day period. Rising [CO2] above that present at the beginning of the 20th century resulted in consistent| significant increases in leaf area| and above ground dry weight (both species)| but decreased leaf area ratio (LAR) and specific leaf area (SLA) in jimson weed. Increased temperature resulted in earlier development and increased leaf area for both species| but increases in above ground final dry weight were observed only for jimson weed. The secondary compounds evaluated included the alkaloids| nicotine| atropine and scopolamine. These compounds are generally recognized as having impacts with respect to herbivory as well as human physiology. Rising [CO2] reduced the concentration of nicotine in tobacco; but had no effect on atropine| and increased the concentration of scopolamine in jimson weed. However| because of the stimulatory effect of [CO2] on growth| the amount of all three secondary compounds increased on a per plant basis in both species. Temperature per se had no effect on nicotine or scopolamine concentration| but significantly increased the concentration and amounts of atropine per plant. Overall| the underlying mechanism of CO2 induced changes in secondary compounds remains unclear; however| these data suggest that the increase in [CO2] and temperature associated with global climate change may have significant effects not only with respect to herbivory| but on the production of secondary compounds of pharmacological impact. 6886,2005,2,4,Altering airborne pollen concentrations due to the Global Warming. A comparative analysis of airborne pollen records from Innsbruck and Obergurgl (Austria) for the period 1980-2001,Airborne pollen concentration was analysed for six plant taxa for the years 1980-2001 and related to temperature records for the same interval in two different areas in Austria. Both in valley areas (Innsbruck) and at higher altitudes (Obergurgl) the flowering period starts earlier| and lasts longer| and the peak values and pollen production were found to increase. Thus the potential for allergic responses to pollen has considerably increased. 7121,2005,4,2,Alternatives to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases,The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GWP has been subjected to many criticisms because of its formulation| but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of its design and application| and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here| two new metrics are proposed| which are based on a simple analytical climate model. The first metric is called the Global Temperature Change Potential and represents the temperature change at a given time due to a pulse emission of a gas (GTP(P)); the second is similar but represents the effect of a sustained emission change (hence GTP(S)). Both GTP(P) and GTP(S) are presented as relative to the temperature change due to a similar emission change of a reference gas| here taken to be carbon dioxide. Both metrics are compared against an upwelling-diffusion energy balance model that resolves land and ocean and the hemispheres. The GTP(P) does not perform well| compared to the energy balance model| except for long-lived gases. By contrast| the GTP(S) is shown to perform well relative to the energy balance model| for gases with a wide variety of lifetimes. It is also shown that for time horizons in excess of about 100 years| the GTP(S) and GWP produce very similar results| indicating an alternative interpretation for the GAT. The GTP(S) retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency| and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However| it has an enhanced relevance| as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions and has an unambiguous interpretation. It appears to be robust to key uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP. 6917,2005,3,2,An assessment of the energy inputs and greenhouse gas emissions in sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) production in the UK,Reducing the energy derived from fossil fuels within agricultural systems has important implications for decreasing atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases| thus assisting the arrest of global warming. The identification of crop production methods that maximise energy efficiency and minimise greenhouse gas emissions is vital. Sugar beet is grown in a variety of locations and under a variety of agronomic conditions within the UK. This study identified thirteen production scenarios| representative of over 90% of the UK beet crop| which included five soil types| nine fertiliser regimes and nine crop protection strategies. The fossil energy input| the overall energy efficiency and the global warming potential (GIAT) of each production scenario was assessed. This study did not consider the processing of the beet to extract sugar. The overall energy input of the UK beet crop ranges between 15.72 and 25.94 GJ/ha. It produces between 7.3 and 15.0 times as much energy in dry matter at the sugar factory gate as consumed in its production| with an average ratio of 9.7. It has an average GWP of 0.024 eq. t CO2 per tonne of clean beet harvested| equivalent to 0.0062 eq. t CO2 per GJ output. The energy input into each scenario was dictated largely by the energy associated with crop nutrition. The smallest energy inputs per hectare were to crops grown under organic conditions or conventional crops grown on fertile soils (clay loam| silt or peat) or sand soil with broiler manure applied. Those crops with the greatest energy input were grown on sand soil that was irrigated and had mineral fertiliser applied. Although the organic scenario grown on sandy loam soil had one of the smallest energy inputs per hectare| the low yield meant that the energy input was similar per tonne of beet harvested to the conventional crops grown on sandy loam soil. The extra distance travelled by organic beet from the farm to the factory increased the energy input per tonne above that of the conventional scenarios. The GWP was smallest for the conventional crops on the fertile peat and silt soils and greatest on the irrigated sand soils and the sandy loam soils. The organic scenario had a similar GWP to the conventional scenarios on sandy loam to the farm gate| although the greater diesel requirement for transport increased the GWP overall. The GWP per GJ of output for sugar beet in England is similar to published values for wheat. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6943,2005,2,4,An ecological 'footprint' of climate change,Recently| there has been increasing evidence of species' range shifts due to changes in climate. Whereas most of these shifts relate ground truth biogeographic data to a general warming trend in regional or global climate data| we here present a reanalysis of both biogeographic and bioclimatic data of equal spatio-temporal resolution| covering a time span of more than 50 years. Our results reveal a coherent and synchronous shift in both species' distribution and climate. They show not only a shift in the northern margin of a species| which is in concert with gradually increasing winter temperatures in the area| they also confirm the simulated species' distribution changes expected from a bioclimatic model under the recent| relatively moderate climate change. 6933,2005,3,4,An integrated system framework for fuel cell-based distributed green energy applications,The environmental pollution and diminishing conventional fuel sources and global warming problems make it more attractive for considering renewables as alternative energy sources| such as solar| wind and micro hydro| etc. Recent advances in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies further facilitate these energy options to supply electrical power to various communities. Hydrogen fuel cell systems coupled with renewable energy sources stand out as a promising solution. This paper presents an integrated system framework for fuel cell-based distributed energy applications. Five components are included in this framework: a physical energy system application| a virtual simulation model| a distributed coordination and control| a human system interface and a database. The integrated system framework provides a means to optimize system design| evaluate its performance and balance supplies and demands in a hydrogen assisted renewable energy application. It can either be applied to a distributed energy node that fulfills a local energy demand or to an energy-network that coordinates distributed energy nodes in a region| such as a hydrogen highway. The proposed system framework has been applied in the first phase of our multi-phases project to investigate and analyze the feasibility and suitability of hydrogen fuel assisted renewable power for a remote community. Through integration with an available renewable energy profile database| the developed system efficiently assists in selecting| integrating| and evaluating different system configurations and various operational scenarios at the application site. The simulation results provide a solid basis for the next phase of our demonstration projects. Crown Copyright (c) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1898,2005,3,3,Analysing countries' contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices,This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the "Brazilian Proposal"). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions| the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change-from emissions of greenhouse gases alone-are quite robust| despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations| the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD| 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union| 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices| such as time period of emissions| climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically| choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions| decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early| such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points| whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However| only including the fossil CO| emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change)| increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1805,2005,4,4,Animal-borne sensors successfully capture the real-time thermal properties of ocean basins,Climate change is perhaps the most pressing and urgent environmental issue facing the world today. However our ability to predict and quantify the consequences of this change is severely limited by the paucity of in situ oceanographic measurements. Marine animals equipped with sophisticated oceanographic data loggers to study their behavior offer one solution to this problem because marine animals range widely across the world's ocean basins and visit remote and often inaccessible locations. However| unlike the information being collected from conventional oceanographic sensing equipment| which has been validated| the data collected from instruments deployed on marine animals over long periods has not. This is the first long-term study to validate in situ oceanographic data collected by animal oceanographers. We compared the ocean temperatures collected by leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Atlantic Ocean with the ARGO network of ocean floats and could find no systematic errors that could be ascribed to sensor instability. Animal-borne sensors allowed water temperature to be monitored across a range of depths| over entire ocean basins| and| importantly| over long periods and so will play a key role in assessing global climate change through improved monitoring of global temperatures. This finding is especially pertinent given recent international calls for the development and implementation of a comprehensive Earth observation system ( see http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/documents.asp?s=review) that includes the use of novel techniques for monitoring and understanding ocean and climate interactions to address strategic environmental and societal needs. 6819,2005,2,2,Anthropogenic climate change and abatement in a multi-region world with endogenous growth,This paper studies the effects of global warming in a descriptive model of endogenous growth with multiple regions. It is assumed that deviations from the global surface temperature| which result from an increase in greenhouse gas emissions| negatively affect aggregate output and the marginal product of capital. The paper derives optimal abatement ratios in the noncooperative world and for the cooperative case assuming that the growth rate is an endogenous variable. Furthermore| the cooperative situation is compared to the outcome resulting when abatement shares are set such that marginal damages in all regions are equal. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6970,2005,2,4,Anthropogenic impacts recorded in the sediments of Lunawa| a small tropical estuary| Sri Lanka,The Lunawa Estuary has been selected as a model for studying the long-term diagnoss of tropical estuarine pollution and its impact on ecosystems. Surface and short-core sediments from the Lunawa Estuary were collected| and analyzed for total organic carbon (TOC)| nitrogen| sulfur and hydrocarbon contents| hydrogen index and other related sediment properties. Water quality and surface sediment data indicate that the Lunawa Estuary is presently an anoxic water body. The upper part of the sediment cores| characterized by very high TOC values of more than 10%| and absence of bioturbation along with strong laminations indicate anoxic water since 1970 AD| determined by C-14 dating. However| before 1970 AD| lower TOC content and presence of bioturbation and homogenous sediments with animal traces suggest the presence of oxic bottom water and thus a much better physicochemical condition. The lower part of the cores may also suggest the influence of gradual global warming. Regular laminations in the upper portions of the cores probably resulted from monsoon pulses with material preserved under anoxic condition. 1891,2005,2,4,Arctic sea ice trends and narwhal vulnerability,Conservation measures related to global climate change require that species vulnerability be incorporated into population risk models| especially for those that are highly susceptible to rapid or extreme changes due to specialized adaptation. In the case of Arctic cetaceans| effects of climate change on habitat and prey availability have been subject to intense speculation. Climate perturbations may have significant impacts on the fitness and success of this group| yet measuring these parameters for conservation purposes is complicated by remote and offshore preferences. The narwhal (Monodon monoceros) in Baffin Bay occupies a habitat where reversed (increasing) regional sea ice trends have been detected over 50 years. We used a combination of long-term narwhal satellite tracking data and remotely sensed sea ice concentrations to detect localized habitat trends and examine potential vulnerability. Spatial and temporal variability in the fraction of open water were examined on two narwhal wintering grounds between November and April| 1978-2001 using approximate sea ice concentrations derived from microwave SSMR/SSMI passive brightness temperatures. Less than 3% open water was available to narwhals between 15 January and 15 April| and reached minima of 0.5% open water at the end of March (125 km(2) out of a 25|000 km(2) area). Decreasing trends in the fraction of open water| together with increasing trends in interannual variability| were detected on both wintering grounds| significantly in northern Baffin Bay (-0.04% per year| SE 0.02). The limited number of leads and cracks available to narwhals during the winter| in combination with localized decreasing trends in open water and high site fidelity| suggests vulnerability to changes in Arctic sea ice conditions. Increasing risk of ice entrapments| many of which may go undetected in remote offshore areas| should be incorporated into population risk assessments as this may exceed the natural response capacity of the species. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1820,2005,2,4,Arctic surface| cloud| and radiation properties based on the AVHRR Polar Pathfinder dataset. Part II: Recent trends,Over the past 20 yr| some Arctic surface and cloud properties have changed significantly. Results of an analysis of satellite data show that the Arctic has warmed and become cloudier in spring and summer but has cooled and become less cloudy in winter. The annual rate of surface temperature change is 0.057 degrees C for the Arctic region north of 60 degrees N. The surface broadband albedo has decreased significantly in autumn| especially over the Arctic Ocean| indicating a later freeze-up and snowfall. The surface albedo has decreased at an annual rate of -0.15% (absolute). Cloud fraction has decreased at an annual rate of -0.6% (absolute) in winter and increased at annual rates of 0.32% and 0.16% in spring and summer| respectively. On an annual time scale| there is no trend in cloud fraction. During spring and summer| changes in sea ice albedo that result from surface warming tend to modulate the radiative effect of increasing cloud cover. On an annual time scale| the all-wave cloud forcing at the surface has decreased at an annual rate of -0.335 W m(-2). indicating an increased cooling by clouds. There are large correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index for some areas| implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change. 1911,2005,2,4,Are long-distance migrants constrained in their evolutionary response to environmental change? Causes of variation in the timing of autumn migration in a blackcap (S-atricapilla) and two garden warbler (Sylvia borin) populations,Long-distance migratory birds often show little phenotypic variation in the timing of life-history events like breeding| molt| or migration. It has been hypothesized that this could result from low levels of heritable variation. If this were true| the adaptability of long-distance migratory birds would be limited| which would explain the vulnerability of this group of birds to environmental changes. The amount of phenotypic| environmental| and genetic variation in the onset of autumn migratory activity was assessed in two garden warbler (Sylvia borin) populations differing in breeding phenology and the length of the breeding season with the aim of investigating the effects of selection on the adaptability of long-distance migrants. High heritabilities and additive genetic variance components for the timing of autumn migration were found in both populations. Although genetic variation in the mountain population was lower than in the lowlands| this difference was not statistically significant. Moreover| no evidence was found for reduced levels of genetic variation in the garden warbler as compared to its sister species| the blackcap (S. atricapilla). Environmental variation| however| was markedly reduced in the garden warbler| suggesting that low levels of phenotypic variation typically found in long-distance migrants may be a consequence of environmental canalization of migratory traits. The buffering of environmental variation may be an adaptive response to strong stabilizing selection on the timing of migration. High environmental canalization of migration phenology in long-distance migrants could potentially explain low rates of immediate phenotypic change in response to environmental change. 6835,2005,4,4,Are precipitation levels getting higher? Statistical evidence for the Netherlands,One of the possible consequences of global warming is that there will be more days with precipitation throughout the year| and also that the level of precipitation will be higher. In this paper a detailed statistical analysis of a century of daily precipitation levels is provided for the central meteorological station in the Netherlands. This paper shows that the often-considered gamma distribution does not fit well to samples of yearly data. It is argued that its incorrect use can lead to spuriously high probabilities of extreme precipitation levels. Relying on advanced nonparametric techniques| it is first found that there are fewer rainy days in the central part of the Netherlands. Next| more rainy days involve higher precipitation levels. Most importantly| no statistically significant shift is found in the annual largest values of daily rainfall over the course of the century| which suggest that the probability of extremely high levels has not changed over time.
6983,2005,4,4,Assessing bias corrections in historical sea surface temperature using a climate model,Analyses of simulations of variations in global and large-regional land surface air temperature (LSAT) for 1872- 1998 using the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model are reported. The analyses are designed to test the accuracy of bias corrections to sea-surface temperature (SST) used in the Hadley Centre's global sea ice and SST (GISST3.1) data set| the more recent Hadley Centre sea ice and SST (HadISST) data set| and in the underlying Met Office historical SST (MOHSST and HadSST1) data sets. The tests are important because SST corrections considerably affect estimates of the magnitude of global warming since the late 19th century. Two ensembles of simulations were created using GISST3.1 as the lower boundary condition. The first ensemble| of six integrations| was forced using GISST with bias-corrections applied from 1871 until 194 1| and was continued with no bias corrections to 1998. A second ensemble of four integrations| for 1871 to)941| was forced with uncorrected GISST|data. Simulations with uncorrected GISST show a substantial and often highly significant cold bias in simulated global and large-regional annual mean LSAT changes before 1942 relative to a 1946-65 reference period. By contrast| corrected SST data led to simulations of LSAT changes that are generally insignificantly different from those of observed LSAT in most regions before 1942. Tests on extratropical hemispheric scales generally validate the seasonal variation of the bias corrections| though less clearly before 1890 in some seasons. Issues about the quality of the LSAT data are raised by the results in a couple of regions. Over Australia| the model may have reconstructed LSAT changes using bias-corrected GISST with greater accuracy than the observations before about 19 10. (c) Crown Copyright 2005. Reproduced with the permission of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 6856,2005,3,4,Assessing the environmental impacts of beach nourishment,With sea levels rising under global warming| dredge-and-fill programs are increasingly employed to protect coastal development from shoreline erosion. Such beach "nourishment" can bury shallow reefs and degrade other beach habitats| depressing nesting in sea turtles and reducing the densities of invertebrate prey for shorebirds| surf fishes| and crabs. Despite decades of agency-mandated monitoring at great expense| much uncertainty about the biological impacts of beach nourishment nonetheless exists. A review of 46 beach monitoring studies shows that (a) only 11 percent of the studies controlled for both natural spatial and temporal variation in their analyses| (b) 56 percent reached conclusions that were not adequately supported| and (c) 49 percent failed to meet publication standards for citation and synthesis of related work. Monitoring is typically conducted through project promoters| with no independent peer review| and the permitting agencies exhibit inadequate expertise to review biostatistical designs. Monitoring results are rarely used to scale mitigation to compensate for injured resources. Reform of agency practices is urgently needed as the risk of cumulative impacts grows. 6977,2005,5,3,Astronomical pacing of late Palaeocene to early Eocene global warming events,At the boundary between the Palaeocene and Eocene epochs| about 55 million years ago| the Earth experienced a strong global warming event| the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum(1-4). The leading hypothesis to explain the extreme greenhouse conditions prevalent during this period is the dissociation of 1|400 to 2|800 gigatonnes of methane from ocean clathrates(5|6)| resulting in a large negative carbon isotope excursion and severe carbonate dissolution in marine sediments. Possible triggering mechanisms for this event include crossing a threshold temperature as the Earth warmed gradually(7)| comet impact(8)| explosive volcanism(9|10) or ocean current reorganization and erosion at continental slopes(11)| whereas orbital forcing has been excluded(12). Here we report a distinct carbonate-poor red clay layer in deep-sea cores from Walvis ridge(13)| which we term the Elmo horizon. Using orbital tuning| we estimate deposition of the Elmo horizon at about 2 million years after the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum. The Elmo horizon has similar geochemical and biotic characteristics as the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum| but of smaller magnitude. It is coincident with carbon isotope depletion events in other ocean basins| suggesting that it represents a second global thermal maximum. We show that both events correspond to maxima in the similar to 405-kyr and similar to 100-kyr eccentricity cycles that post-date prolonged minima in the 2.25-Myr eccentricity cycle| implying that they are indeed astronomically paced. 6874,2005,5,3,Astronomical pacing of methane release in the Early Jurassic period,A pronounced negative carbon-isotope (delta(13)C) excursion of similar to 5-7 parts per thousand (refs 1 - 7) indicates the occurrence of a significant perturbation to the global carbon cycle during the Early Jurassic period (early Toarcian age| similar to 183 million years ago). The rapid release of C-12-enriched biogenic methane as a result of continental-shelf methane hydrate dissociation has been put forward as a possible explanation for this observation(1|7|8). Here we report high-resolution organic carbon-isotope data from well-preserved mudrocks in Yorkshire| UK| which demonstrate that the carbon-isotope excursion occurred in three abrupt stages| each showing a shift of -2 parts per thousand to -3 parts per thousand. Spectral analysis of these carbon-isotope measurements and of high-resolution carbonate abundance data reveals a regular cyclicity. We interpret these results as providing strong evidence that methane release proceeded in three rapid pulses and that these pulses were controlled by astronomically forced changes in climate| superimposed upon longer-term global warming. We also find that the first two pulses of methane release each coincided with the extinction of a large proportion of marine species(9). 6911,2005,2,3,Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled general circulation model: Unforced variations versus forced changes,A 1200-yr unforced control run and future climate change simulations using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM)| a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-sea ice global model with no flux adjustments and relatively high resolution (similar to 2.8 degrees for the atmosphere and 2/3 degrees for the oceans) are analyzed for changes in Atlantic Ocean circulations. For the forced simulations| historical greenhouse gas and sulfate forcing of the twentieth century and projected forcing for the next two centuries are used. The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) shows large multidecadal (15-40 yr) variations with mean-peak amplitudes of 1.5-3.0 Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) and a sharp peak of power around a 24-yr period in the control fun. Associated with the THC oscillations| there are large variations in North Atlantic Ocean heat transport| sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS)| sea ice fraction| and net surface water and energy fluxes| which all lag the variations in THC strength by 2-3 yr. However| the net effect of the SST and SSS variations on upper-ocean density in the midlatitude North Atlantic leads the THC variations by about 6 yr| which results in the 24-yr period. The simulated SST and sea ice spatial patterns associated with the THC oscillations resemble those in observed SST and sea ice concentrations that are associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results suggest a dominant role of the advective mechanism and strong coupling between the THC and the NAO| whose index also shows a sharp peak around the 24-yr time scale in the control run. In the forced simulations| the THC weakens by similar to 12% in the twenty-first century and continues to weaken by an additional similar to 10% in the twenty-second century if CO(2) keeps rising| but the THC stabilizes if CO(2) levels off. The THC weakening results from stabilizing temperature increases that are larger in the upper and northern Atlantic Ocean than in the deep and southern parts of the basin. In both the control and forced simulations| as the THC gains (loses) strength and depth| the separated Gulf Stream (GS) moves southward (northward) while the subpolar gyre centered at the Labrador Sea contracts from (expands to) the east with the North Atlantic Current (NAC) being shifted westward (eastward). These horizontal circulation changes| which are dynamically linked to the THC changes| induce large temperature and salinity variations around the GS and NAC paths. 7024,2005,3,4,Atmospheric chemistry of CF3OCF2CF2H and CF3OC(CF3)(2)H: Reaction with Cl atoms and OH radicals| degradation mechanism| global warming potentials| and empirical relationship between k(OH) and k(Cl) for organic compounds,Using FTIR smog chamber techniques| k(Cl + CF3OCF2CF2H) = (2.70 +/- 0.52) x 10(-16)| k(OH + CF3OCF2CF2H) = (2.26 +/- 0.18) x 10(-15)| k(Cl + CF3OC(CF3)(2)H) = (1.58 +/- 0.27) x 10(-18) and k(OH + CF3OC(CF3)(2)H) = (3.26 +/- 0.95) x 10(-16) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) were measured. The atmospheric lifetimes of CF3OCF2CF2H and CF30C(CF3)2H are estimated to be 27 and 216 years| respectively. Chlorine atom initiated oxidation of CF3OCF2CF2H in 700 Torr of air in the presence of NOx gives CF3OC(O)F in a molar yield of 36 +/- 5% and COF2 in a molar yield of 174 +/- 9%| whereas oxidation of CF3OC(CF3)(2)H gives CF3OC(O)CF3 and COF2 in molar yields that are indistinguishable from 100%. Quantitative infrared spectra were recorded and used to estimate global warming potentials of 3690 and 8230 (100 year time horizon| relative to CO2) for CF3OCF2CF2H and CF3OC(CF3)(2)H| respectively. All experiments were performed in 700 Torr of N-2/O-2 diluent at 296 +/- 2 K. An empirical relationship can be used to estimate the preexponential factor| which can be combined with k(298 K) to give the temperature dependence of reactions of OH radicals with organic compounds proceeding via H-atom abstraction: log(A/n) = (0.239 +/- 0.027) log(k(OH)/n) - (8.69 +/- 0.372)| k(OH) is the rate constant at 298 K and n is the number of H atoms. The rates of H-atom abstraction by OH radicals and Cl atoms at 298 K from organic compounds are related by the expression log(k(OH)) = (0.412 +/- 0.049) log(k(Cl)) - (8.16 +/- 0.72). The utility of these expressions and the atmospheric chemistry of the title hydrofluoroethers are discussed. 7055,2005,4,4,Atmospheric chemistry of CHF2CHO: Study of the IR and UV-vis absorption cross sections| photolysis| and OH-| Cl-| and NO3-initiated oxidation,The infrared and ultraviolet-visible absorption cross sections| effective quantum yield of photolysis| and OH| Cl| and NO3 reaction rate coefficients of CHF2CHO are reported. Relative rate measurements at 298 +/- 2 K and 1013 +/- 10 hPa gave k(OH)| = (1.8 +/- 0.4) x 10(-12) cm(-3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (propane as reference compound)| k(Cl) = (1.24 +/- 0.13) x 10(- 11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (ethane as reference compound)| and k(NO3) = (5.9 +/- 1.7) x 10(-17) cm(-1) molecule(-1) s(-1) (trans-dichloroethene as reference compound). The photolysis of CHF2CHO has been investigated under pseudonatural tropospheric conditions in the European simulation chamber| Valencia| Spain (EUPHORE)| and an effective quantum yield of photolysis equal to 0.30 +/- 0.05 over the wavelength range 290-500 nm has been extracted. The tropospheric lifetime of CHF2CHO is estimated to be around 1 day and is determined by photolysis. The observed photolysis rates of CH3CHO| CHF2CHO| and CF3CHO are discussed on the basis of results from quantum chemical calculations. 7142,2005,3,4,Atmospheric chemistry of hydrofluoroethers: Reaction of a series of hydrofluoro ethers with OH radicals and Cl atoms| atmospheric lifetimes| and global warming potentials,The kinetics of the OH radical and Cl atom reactions with nine fluorinated ethers have been studied by the relative rate method at 298 K and 1013 hPa using gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC-MS) detection: k(OH + CH3CH2OCF3) = (1.55 +/- 0.25) x 10(-13)| k(OH + CF3CH2OCH3) = (5.7 +/- 10.8) x 10-(13)| k(OH + CF3CH2OCHF2) = (9.1 +/- 1.1) x 10(-15)| k(OH + CF3CHFOCHF2) = (6.5 +/- 0.8) x 10(-15)| k(OH + CHF2CHFOCF3) = (6.8 +/- 1.1) x 10(-15)| k(OH + CF3CHFOCF2) < 1 x 10(-15)| k(OH + CF3CHFCF2OCHF2) = (1.69 +/- 0.26) x 10(-14)| k(OH + CF3CHFCF2OCH2CH3) = (1.47 +/- 0.13) x 10(-13)| k(OH + CF3CF2CF2OCHFCF3) < 1 x 10(-15)| k(Cl + CH3CH2OCF3) (2.2 +/- 0.8) x 10(-12)| k(Cl + CF3CH2OCH3) = (1.8 +/- 0.9) x 10(-11)| k(Cl + CF3CH2OCHF2) = (1.5 +/- 0.4) x 10(-14)| k(Cl + CF3CHFOCHF2) = (1.1 +/- 1.9) x 10(-15)| k(Cl + CHF2CHFOCF3) = (1.2 +/- 2.0) x 10(-15)| k(Cl + CF3CHFOCF3) < 3 x 10(-15)| k(Cl + CF3CHFCF2OCHF2) < 6 x 10(-16)| k(Cl + CF3CHFCF2OCH2CH3) = (3.1 +/- 1.1) x 10(-12). and k(Cl + CF3CF2CF2OCHFCF3) < 3 x 10(-15) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The error limits include three standard deviations (3sigma) from the statistical data analyses| as well as the errors in the rate coefficients of the reference compounds that are used. Infrared absorption cross sections and estimates of the trophospheric lifetimes and the global warn-Ling potentials of the fluorinated ethers are presented. The atmospheric degradation of the compounds is discussed. 7022,2005,4,4,Atmospheric chemistry with synchrotron radiation,Synchrotron radiation is a good mimic of solar radiation and therefore has been widely used to study photo-induced physics and chemistry in the terrestrial atmosphere. In this paper we review how synchrotron radiation is being used as a tool for investigating atmospheric physics and chemistry with particular emphasis on studies related to ozone depletion| global warming and ionospheric phenomena. The paper concludes with a discussion of the new possibilities that the next generation of synchrotron-based light sources will provide. 6750,2005,2,4,Atmospheric response function over land: Strong asymmetries in daily temperature fluctuations,This communication presents global statistics of daily mean temperature changes as a function of previous day temperature anomaly. The relationship obtained clearly exhibits properties of response functions: the larger the anomaly| the larger the expected magnitude of temperature change backward to the long-term average value. Worldwide statistics reveals that this temperature response function is inherently nonlinear and climate specific. However the central part around the origin can be approximated well by a linear fit. At a large number of geographic locations| the intercepts have small offsets toward nonzero values| and these offsets are geographically correlated. We show that one possible reason is a marked asymmetry of temperature fluctuations| that is warming steps have significantly higher frequencies and lower average magnitudes than those of cooling steps| almost everywhere. These two opposing effects could result in stationary fluctuations around an annual cycle| however| our statistics clearly indicates the presence of global warming. 1890,2005,4,4,Australia-wide predictions of soil properties using| decision trees,This paper describes the construction of Australia-wide soil property predictions from a compiled national soils point database. Those properties considered include pH| organic carbon| total phosphorus| total nitrogen| thickness. texture| and clay content. Many of these soil properties are used directly in environmental process modelling including global climate change models. Models are constructed at the 250-m resolution using decision trees. These relate the soil property to the environment through a suite of environmental predictors at the locations where measurements are observed. These models are then used to extend predictions to the continental extent by applying the rules derived to the exhaustively available environmental predictors. The methodology and performance is described in detail for pH and summarized for other properties. Environmental variables are found to be important predictors| even at the 250-m resolution at which they are available here as they can describe the broad changes in soil property. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6758,2005,3,2,Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system,The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the avoidance of "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". Among the many plausible choices| dangerous interference with the climate system may be interpreted as anthropogenic radiative forcing causing distinct and widespread climate change impacts such as a widespread demise of coral reefs or a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The geological record and numerical models suggest that limiting global warming below critical temperature thresholds significantly reduces the likelihood of these eventualities. Here we analyze economically optimal policies that may ensure this risk-reduction. Reducing the risk of a widespread coral reef demise implies drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within decades. Virtually unchecked greenhouse gas emissions to date (combined with the inertia of the coupled natural and human systems) may have already committed future societies to a widespread demise of coral reefs. Policies to reduce the risk of a West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration allow for a smoother decarbonization of the economy within a century and may well increase consumption in the long run. 6995,2005,3,2,Baseline study of methane emission from open digesting tanks of palm oil mill effluent treatment,Anthropogenic release of greenhouse gases| especially CO2 and CH4 has been recognized as one of the main causes of global warming. Several measures under the Kyoto Protocol 1997 have been drawn up to reduce the greenhouse gases emission. One of the measures is Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) that was created to enable developed countries to cooperate with developing countries in emission reduction activities. In Malaysia| palm oil industry particularly from palm oil mill effluent (POME) anaerobic treatment has been identified as an important source of CH4. However.. there is no study to quantify the actual CH4 emission from the commercial scale wastewater treatment facility. Hence| this paper shall address the CH4 emission from the open digesting tanks in Felda Serting Hilir Palm Oil Mill. CH4 emission pattern was recorded for 52 weeks from 3600 m 3 open digesting tanks. The findings indicated that the CH4 content was between 13.5% and 49.0% which was lower than the value of 65% reported earlier. The biogas flow rate ranged between 0.8 l min(-1) m(-2) and 9.8 l min(-1) m(-2). Total CH4 emission per open digesting tank was 519.9 kg day(-1). Relationships between CH4 emission and total carbon removal and POME discharged were also discussed. Fluctuation of biogas production was observed throughout the studies as a result of seasonal oil palm cropping| mill activities| variation of POME quality and quantity discharged from the mill. Thus only through long-term field measurement CH4 emission can be accurately estimated. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7113,2005,2,4,Biodiversity of the Indian Ocean from the perspective of staghorn corals (Acropora spp),The Indian Ocean represents a vital link in the knowledge of where modern reef-building corals began existence| how they survived changes in the configuration of world oceans and how they will survive into the future. To address the central questions of the Census of Marine Life (CoML) for the Indian Ocean| we use the dominant modern reef-building coral genus Acropora as an exemplar| working from a large database of world-wide distributions. Previous biodiversity and biogeographic studies of this genus indicated a demarcation between Indian and Pacific Ocean faunas| despite predominantly widespread distribution ranges. From the distribution of modern and fossil Acropora assemblages| it is evident that the genus Acropora evolved in either the western Indian Ocean or Mediterranean regions of the late Tethys Sea| rather than the central Indo-Pacific as is often assumed from "centre of origin" models. In this paper| additional data on Acropora biodiversity from regions of the Indian Ocean is examined to give a preliminary indication of the nature and origin of their biogeographic relationships. The Indian Ocean has unique faunas particularly in the region of the Red Sea|and Arabian Gulf. While it is open to influx of Pacific Ocean species via the Indonesian Throughflow current| there is-little likelihood of migration of Indian Ocean species into the Pacific. In the event of continuation of global warming| southerly migration of coral species ranges may also take place. Monitoring for such changes could be built into a further detailed compilation of Acropora species composition from sites within the Indian Ocean| which will also lead to finer-scale resolution of the distribution patterns shown here.
6891,2005,5,4,Biostratigraphy and carbon isotope stratigraphy of uppermost Cretaceous-lower Cenozoic Muzzle Group in middle Clarence valley| New Zealand,Muzzle Group strata exposed along southeast-flowing tributaries of the Clarence River valley| Marlborough| record hemipelagic-pelagic sedimentation across a high latitude (c. 55 degrees S)| terrigenous sediment-starved| continental margin from latest Cretaceous to middle Eocene times. Studies of dinoflagellates| foraminifera| calcareous nannofossils| and radiolarians have been integrated with bulk carbonate delta(13)C profiles to establish the chronostratigraphy for two stratigraphic sections along Bluff and Muzzle Streams| middle Clarence valley. The two sections comprise similar successions. Uppermost Cretaceous (upper Haumurian) micritic limestone of Mead Hill Formation is overlain unconformably by Teredo Limestone| a c. 0.25 m thick bed of highly glauconitic| calcareous sandstone. This unit| the basal member of Amuri Limestone| is overlain conformably by c. 15 m thick Lower Limestone| micritic limestone that is glauconitic at base and progressively more marl-rich in its upper part. Lower Limestone grades up into Lower Marl| a poorly exposed| 40-70 m thick unit of alternating marl and micritic limestone beds. Biostratigraphy indicates that the base of Amuri Limestone is younger at Bluff Stream (earliest Eocene| early Waipawan) than at Muzzle Stream (late Paleocene| late Teurian). In the condensed (12 m) upper Paleocene-lower Eocene Amuri Limestone sequence at Muzzle Stream| a trend in PC from high (>= 2.4 parts per thousand) to low (<= 1 parts per thousand) values is consistent with global records across three major climate or carbon cycle perturbations: the late Paleocene carbon isotope maximum (PCIM| 59-56 Ma)| the initial Eocene thermal maximum (IETM| 55.5 Ma)| and the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO| 53-50 Ma). Probably only the upper PCIM is preserved in the 4 m thick siliceous limestone interval overlying Teredo Limestone. The IETM is well-defined by a 1 parts per thousand negative delta(13)C excursion at the base of a 0.8 m thick marl-rich unit (Dee Marl)| 5 m above the base of Lower Limestone at Muzzle Stream| and the abrupt appearances of Eocene-restricted species or distinctly warm-water elements within dinoflagellate| foraminiferal| calcareous nannofossil| and radiolarian assemblages. The lithological expression of the IETM as a recessive marly unit has now been identified in three Clarence valley sections (Muzzle| Dee| and Mead Streams)| representing a 20 km continental margin transect. Sedimentation rate trends across this margin indicate that the local effects of extreme global warming were increased supply of terrigenous mud| probably due to enhanced precipitation| weathering and erosion| and a decrease in pelagic sedimentation| reflecting a decrease in oceanic productivity. Bluff section lacks an IETM record but contains an expanded (20 m) early Eocene succession that records the onset of the EECO as a progressive increase in mart-rich units associated with consistently low delta(13)C (<1 parts per thousand). Both Muzzle and Bluff sections indicate that local environmental changes associated with the EECO were a more gradual and extended version of those inferred for the IETM: an increase in terrigenous mud supply coupled with a decrease in oceanic productivity. 6909,2005,5,4,Bolide summer: The Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum as a response to an extraterrestrial trigger,The standard paradigm that the Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) represents a threshold event intrinsic to Earth's climate and connected in some way with long-term warming has influenced interpretations of the geochemical| climate| and biological perturbations that occurred at this event. As recent high-resolution data have demonstrated that the onset of the event was geologically instantaneous| attempts to account for the event solely through endogenous mechanisms have become increasingly strained. The rapid onset of the event indicates that it was triggered by a catastrophic event which we suggest was most likely a bolide impact. We discuss features of the PETM that require explanation and argue that mechanisms that have previously been proposed either cannot explain all of these features or would require some sort of high-energy trigger. A bolide impact could provide such a trigger and| in the event of a comet impact| could contribute directly to the shape of the carbon isotope curve. We introduce a carbon cycle model that would explain the PETM by global warming following a bolide impact| leading to the oxidation of terrestrial organic carbon stores built up during the late Paleocene. Our intention is to encourage other researchers to seriously consider an impact trigger for the PETM| especially in the absence of plausible alternative mechanisms. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7101,2005,4,4,Borehole temperatures| climate change and the pre-observational surface air temperature mean: Allowance for hydraulic conditions,Joint analysis of surface air temperature series recorded at weather stations together with the inversion of the temperature-depth profiles logged in the near-by boreholes enables an estimate of the conditions existing prior to the beginning of the meteorological observation| the so-called pre-observational mean (POM) temperature. Such analysis is based on the presumption of pure diffusive conditions in the underground. However| in real cases a certain subsurface fluid movement cannot be excluded and the measured temperature logs may contain an advective component. The paper addresses the correction for the hydraulic conditions| which may have perturbed the climate signal penetrating from the surface into the underground. The method accounts for vertical conductive and vertical advective heat transport in a I-D horizontally layered stratum and provides a simultaneous evaluation of the POM-temperature together with the estimate of the Darcy fluid velocity. The correction strategy is illustrated on a synthetic example and its use is demonstrated on temperature logs measured in four closely spaced boreholes drilled near Tachlovice (located about 15 km SW of Prague| Czech Republic). The results revealed that in a case of moderately advectively affected subsurface conditions (fluid velocities about 10(-9) m/s)| the difference between POM-values assessed for a pure conductive approach and for combined vertical conductive/advective approach may amount up to 0.3-0.5 K| the value comparable with the amount usually ascribed to the 20th century climate warming. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1887,2005,3,3,Brazilian energy policies side-effects on CO2 emissions reduction,This study focuses on some of the programs and measures Brazil has undertaken over the past two or three decades in order to mitigate economic or environmental problems| which have also had positive effects on the reduction of the country's carbon dioxide emissions. Results show that| in the year 2000 alone| some 11% in CO2 emissions from energy use in Brazil have been reduced compared to what would have been emitted that year had the actions reviewed here not been implemented in good time. As these actions have not been motivated as a strategy to curb global climate change| if their benefits related to avoided carbon emissions are not fully appraised in the near future| chances are that these policies may be discontinued. For instance| in the case of the business-as-usual scenario drawn up by the Ministry of Mines and Energy in 2001| the discontinuity of the policies analyzed here would result in CO2 emissions 20% higher by 2020| compared to what would happen were these policies kept over the long term. Therefore| the perspective presented here spotlights some of the hidden benefits of the programs and measures underway in the country| justifying their continuation or even intensification. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6792,2005,2,4,Briksdalsbreen in western Norway: AD 1900-2004 frontal fluctuations as a combined effect of variations in winter precipitation and summer temperature,Mountain glaciers and ice caps are sensitive to changes in regional and global climate. Temporal glacier variations| manifested in change of volume| area and length| provide some of the clearest signals of climate change in nature. Therefore| glaciers are considered key indicators for the detection of global warming. Except for a few glaciers in western Scandinavia| glaciers in Europe are in retreat| following the global trend. Maritime (coastal) glaciers in western Norway experienced positive mass balance and large frontal advance during the 1990s because of increased winter accumulation. In contrast| after 1996| and especially since 2001| these glaciers have experienced strong negative mass balance and| as a result of short (< 5 years) response time| frontal retreat. Briksdalsbreen| a short and steep outlet glacier from Jostedalsbreen (the largest glacier on mainland Europe)| retreated 230 m between 1996/97 and 2004| with a maximum annual retreat of 130 m in 2003/2004. This is the largest annual retreat recorded since the start of the frontal measurements in 1900. This study demonstrates that glacier fluctuations are not only a response to ablation-season temperature variations| but are also highly dependent on accumulation-season precipitation. The records of glacier-front variations and the climate variability over the last similar to 100 years in western Norway may be regarded as a 'modern analogue' for other Holocene events and are useful in evaluating the likelihood that similar climate and glacier variability will occur in the future. 6807,2005,2,4,Can global warming affect tropical ocean heat transport?,Tropical meridional ocean heat transport is studied in six coupled ocean-atmosphere models in which atmospheric CO2 concentration has been increased. In the Indo-Pacific| the strength of Subtropical Cells (STCs) changes in response to changes in the trade winds. However| the change is not consistent among models. In contrast| in all models the tropical Indo-Pacific heat transport remains nearly constant over time due to compensation of STC and the horizontal gyre variations. Even under strong atmospheric radiative forcing the tropical Indo-Pacific ocean heat transport trends are determined by changes in circulation| rather than changes in the stratification. Ocean heat transport in the tropical Atlantic responds to weakening of the basin-wide meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The trends in the South Atlantic STC do not affect ocean heat transport. 6908,2005,3,3,Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?,Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. We review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework| including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. We argue that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We synthesize results from published climate-modeling studies to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that Of CO(2) (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. We find that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases| particularly in Annex I countries. Finally| we propose a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during our discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement. 7006,2005,3,3,Carbon accumulation in cotton| sorghum| and underlying soil as influenced by tillage| cover crops| and nitrogen fertilization,Soil and crop management practices may influence biomass growth and yields of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) and sequester significant amount of atmospheric CO| in plant biomass and underlying soil| thereby helping to mitigate the undesirable effects of global warming. This study examined the effects of three tillage practices [no-till (NT)| strip till (ST)| and chisel till (CT)]|. four cover crops [legume (hairy vetch) (Vicia villosa Roth)| nonlegume (rye) (Secale cereale L)| hairy vetch/rye mixture| and winter weeds or no cover crop]| and three N fertilization rates (0| 60-65| and 120-130 kg N ha(-1)) on the amount of C sequestered in cotton lint (lint + seed)| sorghum grain. their stalks (stems + leaves) and roots| and underlying soil from 2000 to 2002 In central Georgia| USA. A field experiment was conducted on a Dothan sandy loam (fine-loamy| kaolinitic| thermic. Plinthic Kandiudults). In 2000| C accumulation in cotton lint was greater in NT with rye or vetch/rye mixture but in stalks| it was greater in ST with vetch or vetch/rye mixture than in CT with or without cover crops. Similarly| C accumulation in lint was greater in NT with 60 kg N ha(-1) but in stalks| it was greater in ST with 60 and 120 kg N ha(-1) than in CT with 0 kg N ha(-1). In 2001| C accumulation in sorghum grains and stalks was greater in vetch and vetch/rye mixture with or without N rate than in rye without N rate. In 2002| C accumulation in cotton lint was greater in CT with or without N rate but in stalks| it was greater in ST with 60 and 120 kg N ha(-1) than in NT with or without N rate. Total C accumulation in the above- and belowground biomass in cotton ranged from 1.7 to 5.6 Mg ha(-1) and in sorghum ranged from 3.4 to 7.2 Mg ha(-1). Carbon accumulation in cotton and sorghum roots ranged from 1 to 14% of the total C accumulation in above- and belowground biomass. In NT| soil organic C at 0-10 cm depth was greater in vetch with 0 kg N ha(-1) or in vetch/rye with 120-130 kg N ha(-1) than in weeds with 0 and 60 kg N ha(-1) but at 10-30 cm| it was greater in rye with 120-130 kg N ha(-1) than in weeds with or without rate. In ST| soil organic C at 0-10 cm was greater in rye with 120-130 kg N ha(-1) than in rye| vetch| vetch/rye and weeds with 0 and 60 kg N ha(-1). Soil organic C at 0-10 and 10-30 cm was also greater in NT and ST than in CT. Since 5 to 24% of C accumulation in lint and grain were harvested| C sequestered in cotton and sorghum stalks and roots can be significant in the terrestrial ecosystem and can significantly increase C storage in the soil if these residues are left after lint or grain harvest| thereby helping to mitigate the effects of global warming. Conservation tillage| such as ST| with hairy vetch/rye mixture cover crops and 6065 kg N ha(-1) can sustain C accumulation in cotton lint and sorghum grain and increase C storage soil compared with conventional tillage| such as CT| with no cover crop and N fertilization| thereby maintaining crop yields| improving soil quality| and reducing erosion. 1850,2005,3,3,Carbon cycling and budget in a forested basin of southwestern Hokkaido| northern Japan,Quantification of annual carbon sequestration is very important in order to assess the function of forest ecosystems in combatting global climate change and the ecosystem responses to those changes. Annual cycling and budget of carbon in a forested basin was investigated to quantify the carbon sequestration of a cool-temperate deciduous forest ecosystem in the Horonai stream basin| Tomakomai Experimental Forest| northern Japan. Net ecosystem exchange| soil respiration| biomass increment| litterfall| soil-solution chemistry| and stream export were observed in the basin from 1999-2001 as a part of IGBP-TEMA project. We found that 258 g C m(-2) year(-1) was sequestered annually as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in the forested basin. Discharge of carbon to the stream was 4 g C m(-2) year(-1) (about 2% of NEE) and consisted mainly of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). About 43% of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was retained in the vegetation| while about 57% of NEP was sequestered in soil| suggesting that the movement of sequestered carbon from above-ground to belowground vegetation was an important process for net carbon accumulation in soil. The derived organic carbon from aboveground vegetation that moved to the soil mainly accumulated in the solid phase of the soil| with the result that the export of dissolved organic carbon to the stream was smaller than that of dissolved inorganic carbon. Our results indicated that the aboveground and belowground interaction of carbon fluxes was an important process for determining the rate and retention time of the carbon sequestration in a cool-temperate deciduous forest ecosystem in the southwestern part of Hokkaido| northern Japan. 6839,2005,2,3,Carbon dioxide and methane exchange of a north-east Siberian tussock tundra,Carbon dioxide| energy flux measurements and methane chamber measurements were carried out in an arctic wet tussock grassland located on a flood plane of the Kolyma river in NE Siberia over a summer period of 155 days in 2002 and early 2003. Respiration was also measured in April 2004. The study region is characterized by late thaw of the top soil (mid of June) and periodic spring floods. A stagnant water table below the grass canopy is fed by thawing of the active layer of permafrost and by flood water. The climate is continental with average daily temperature in the warmest months of 13 degrees C (maximum temperature at midday: 28 degrees C by the end of July)| dry air (maximum vapour pressure deficit at midday: 28 hPa) and low rainfall of 50 mm during summer (July-September). Summer evaporation (July-September: 103 mm) exceeded rainfall by a factor of 2. The daily average Bowen ratio (H/LE) was 0.62 during the growing season. Net ecosystem CO(2) uptake reached 10 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) and was related to photon flux density (PFD) and vapour pressure deficit (VPD). The cumulative annual net carbon flux from the atmosphere to the terrestrial surface was estimated to be about -38 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (negative flux depicts net carbon sink). Winter respiration was extrapolated using the Lloyd and Taylor function. The net carbon balance is composed of a high rate of assimilation in a short summer and a fairly large but uncertain respiration mainly during autumn and spring. Methane flux (about 12 g C m(-2) measured over 60 days) was 25% of C uptake during the same period of time (end of July to end of September). Assuming that CH(4) was emitted only in summer| and taking the greenhouse gas warming potential of CH(4) vs. CO(2) into account (factor 23)| the study site was a greenhouse gas source (at least 200 g C(equivalent) m(-2) yr(-1)). Comparing different studies in wetlands and tundra ecosystems as related to latitude| we expect that global warming would rather increase than decrease the CO(2)-C sink. 6779,2005,3,4,Carbon dioxide as refrigerant for tap water heat pumps: A comparison with the traditional solution,Increased concern about the environmental impact of the refrigeration technology is leading toward design solutions aimed at improving the energy efficiency of the related applications| using eco-friendly refrigerants| i.e. ozone-friendly and with the least possible global warming potential (GWP). In this respect| carbon dioxide (ASHRAE R744) is seen today as one of the most promising refrigerants and is raising great interest in industrial and scientific fields. In the present work| the plant options are investigated| which are related to the design of air/water heat pumps for tap water using CO2. A comparison is made| in terms of energy efficiency| between a system working with CO2 and a similar one working with HFC R134a; such a comparison is carried out by means of a simulation model of a refrigerating machine/heat pump| characterized by a detailed representation of the heat exchangers| based on their subdivision into elementary volumes. Results show that carbon dioxide is an interesting substitute for synthetic fluids| if the design of the system is focused to take advantage of its properties. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 7153,2005,3,3,Carbon dioxide emissions and climate change: policy implications for the cement industry,There is growing awareness that the cement industry is a significant contributor to global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It is expected that this industry will come under increasing regulatory pressures to reduce its emissions and contribute more aggressively to mitigating global warming. It is important that the industry's stakeholders become more familiar with greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and associated global warming issues| along with emerging policies that may affect the future of the industry. This paper discusses climate change| the cur-rent and proposed actions for mitigating its effects| and the implications of such actions for the cement industry. International negotiations on climate change are summarized and mechanisms available under the Kyoto Protocol for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are explained. The paper examines some of the traditional and emerging policy instruments for greenhouse gas emissions and analyses their merits and drawbacks. The applicability| effectiveness and potential impact of these policy instruments for the global cement industry in general and the Canadian cement industry in particular are discussed with recommendations for possible courses of action. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6853,2005,3,4,Carbon sequestration in arable soils is likely to increase nitrous oxide emissions| offsetting reductions in climate radiative forcing,Strategies for mitigating the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere include sequestering carbon (C) in soils and vegetation of terrestrial ecosystems. Carbon and nitrogen (N) move through terrestrial ecosystems in coupled biogeochemical cycles| and increasing C stocks in soils and vegetation will have an impact on the N cycle. We conducted simulations with a biogeochemical model to evaluate the impact of different cropland management strategies on the coupled cycles of C and N| with special emphasis on C-sequestration and emission of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Reduced tillage| enhanced crop residue incorporation| and farmyard manure application each increased soil C-sequestration| increased N2O emissions| and had little effect on CH4 uptake. Over 20 years| increases in N2O emissions| which were converted into CO2-equivalent emissions with 100-year global warming potential multipliers| offset 75-310% of the carbon sequestered| depending on the scenario. Quantification of these types of biogeochemical interactions must be incorporated into assessment frameworks and trading mechanisms to accurately evaluate the value of agricultural systems in strategies for climate protection. 7166,2005,3,3,Carbon sequestration| the precautionary approach and the responsibility of scientists,This paper reviews problems connected to the use of the deep-sea and sub-sea geological formations for carbon sequestration. We will focus on the risks and dangers involved in using this kind of large-scale engineering approach| which is not yet fully tested| to combat global warming. We will not provide a complete discussion on the technologies involved| but concentrate on a few principal questions| such as the responsibility of environmental scientists involved in this research. We will also discuss carbon sequestration in relation to the precautionary approach. We argue that there may be a place for large-scale engineering attempts| but this should be the last rather than the first option. 6805,2005,4,3,Carbonic anhydrase and CO2 sensing during Cryptocloccus neoformans growth| differentiation| and virulence,The gas carbon dioxide (CO2) plays a critical role in microbial and mammalian respiration| photosynthesis in algae and plants| chemoreception in insects| and even global warming [1-5]. However| how CO2 is transported| sensed| and metabolized by microorganisms is largely not understood. For instance| CO2 is known to induce production of polysaccharide capsule virulence determinants in pathogenic bacteria and fungi via unknown mechanisms [6-8]. Therefore| we studied CO2 actions in growth| differentiation| and virulence of the basidiomycetous human fungal pathogen Cryptococcus neoformans. The CAN2 gene encoding beta-carbonic anhydrase in C. neoformans was found to be essential for growth in environmental ambient conditions but dispensable for in vivo proliferation and virulence at the high CO2 levels in the host. The can2 Delta mutant in vitro growth defect is largely attributable to defective fatty acid synthesis. CO2 was found to inhibit cell-cell fusion but not filamentation during sexual reproduction. The can2 mutation restored early mating events in high CO2 but not later steps (fruiting body formation| sporulation)| indicating a major role for carbonic anhydrase and CO2/HCO3- in this developmental cascade leading to the production of infectious spores. Our studies illustrate diverse roles of an ancient enzyme class in enabling environmental survival of a ubiquitous human pathogen. 6828,2005,4,4,Case studies on environmental impact of seawater desalination,Water desalination processes have contributed to a better standard of living in a number of countries during the second half of the 20th century| following an increase in water demand for drinking purposes as well as industrial and agricultural uses. However| the technologies used in water desalination are also accompanied by adverse environmental effects. There are several effects to be considered in desalination plants| such as the use of the land| the groundwater| the marine environment| noise pollution and the use of energy| amongst others. To protect and preserve the environment| most countries turned to assess the environment impacts produced by desalination plants. Seawater desalination plants are located by the shoreline| to supply desalted water to the population of the main cities and other uses. The construction of both the desalination plants and all the required infrastructure in coastal areas affects the local environment. The impact on groundwater is due to the seawater pipes leaks which could contaminate the aquifers. The high salt concentration in the brine and several chemical products used in the desalination process are returned to the sea. Most impacts on the marine environment arise as a consequence of the brine discharge and their effects could be worse in the Mediterranean sea than in other areas. With respect to the noise pollution produced by the desalination. plants| there is always an impact on the plant operators and also on the towns and villages nearby. One of the major indirect environmental impacts is the use of the energy required by desalination plants| particularly when electricity is produced by burning of oil| which in turn boosts the process of global warming. In this paper| we analyse the environmental problems of seawater reverse osmosis desalination plants| focusing on some case studies located in Canary Islands| and describing the major impacts identified. Environmental monitoring is done by the water and environmental authorities| based on regional regulations which turn out to be more restrictive than national legislation. 6747,2005,2,2,Centennial-scale interactions between the carbon cycle and anthropogenic climate change using a dynamic Earth system model,A complex Earth system model including atmosphere| ocean| ice sheets| marine carbon cycle and terrestrial vegetation was used to study the long-term response (100-1000 yrs) of the climate to different increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. A 3.2 K global mean surface temperature increase is simulated for a 3xCO(2) experiment. The freshwater input by melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to global warming is of minor importance compared to hydrological changes in the atmosphere. Increased equatorial upwelling enhances the tropical outgassing of CO2 from the oceans| lowering the total marine carbon uptake by 16-22%. On land| carbon release due to increase in soil temperature reduces the anthropogenic carbon uptake from CO2 fertilization up to 43%. Thus| we show that both marine and terrestrial carbon cycle have a positive feedback on climate| which has to be considered for future carbon emission scenarios. 7185,2005,3,4,CF(4) decomposition of flue gas from semiconductor process using inductively coupled plasma,Flue gases from the semiconductor process| SF(6)| NF(3)| perfluorocarbons (PFCs) such as CF(4) and C(2) F(6)| and hydrofluorocarbons such as CHF(3) are being regulated internationally because their gases have extremely large global warming potential in comparison to CO(2)| and they have a long lifetime. PFCs are used for wafer etching and cleanup of chemical vapor deposition chambers. CF(4) is one of the most stable gases among PFCs and its decomposition is extremely difficult. The purpose of this paper is to develop a PFCs removal system which can be used as the same power supply for both plasma -processing and a CF(4) emission cleanup system in semiconductor manufacturing processes. This achieves higher efficiency and is more economical than conventional systems. CF(4) decomposition was investigated at low pressure (29 - 53 Pa) using the inductively coupled plasma (ICP) reactor. When the total flow rate was below 0.189 normal liters per minute and O(2) concentration exceeded the 0.9 stoichiometric ratio| the complete CF(4) decomposition efficiency was achieved at 1.2 M The amount of O(2) should be a 1 similar to 1.45 stoichiometric ratio of CF(4) to achieve good CF(4) decomposition. The argon enhanced the decomposition of CF(4)- On the other hand| the helium was insignificant. CF(4) decomposition efficiency decreased in the presence of N(2). For CF(4) decomposition| the energy efficiency for CF(4) decomposition was 21.0 g/kWh at optimal condition using the ICP reactor. From the Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrophotometer analysis| CO and carbonyl fluoride (COF(2)) were produced except for CO(2). COF(2) is toxic| however| it hydrolyzes into HF and CO(2)| so it is easy to eliminate COF(2) using the scrubber which was located downstream of the dry vacuum pump. 7200,2005,3,3,CH4 and N2O from mechanically turned windrow and vermicomposting systems following in-vessel pre-treatment,Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are included in the six greenhouse gases listed in the Kyoto protocol that require emission reduction. To meet reduced emission targets| governments need to first quantify their contribution to global warming. Composting has been identified as an important source of CH4 and N2O. With increasing divergence of biodegradable waste from landfill into the composting sector| it is important to quantify emissions of CH4 and N2O from all forms of composting and from all stages. This study focuses on the final phase of a two stage composting process and compares the generation and emission of CH4 and N2O associated with two differing composting methods: mechanically turned windrow and vermicomposting. The first stage was in-vessel pre-treatment. Source-segregated household waste was first pre-composted for seven days using an in-vessel system. The second stage of composting involved forming half of the pre-composted material into a windrow and applying half to vermicomposting beds. The duration of this stage was 85 days and CH4 and N2O emissions were monitored throughout for both systems. Waste samples were regularly subjected to respirometry analysis and both processes were found to be equally effective at stabilising the organic matter content. The mechanically turned windrow system was characterised by emissions of CH4 and to a much lesser extent N2O. However| the vermicomposting system emitted significant fluxes of N2O and only trace amounts of CH4. In-vessel pre-treatment removed considerable amounts of available C and N prior to the second stage of composting. This had the effect of reducing emissions of CH4 and N2O from the second stage compared to emissions from fresh waste found in other studies. The characteristics of each of the two composting processes are discussed in detail. Very different mechanisms for emission of CH4 and N2O are proposed for each system. For the windrow system| development of anaerobic zones were thought to be responsible for CH4 release. High N2O emission rates from vermicomposting were ascribed to strongly nitrifying conditions in the processing beds combined with the presence of de-nitrifying bacteria within the worm gut. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7082,2005,2,4,Changes in the timing of spring and autumn migration in North American migrant passerines during a period of global warming,Butler (2003) used first arrival dates (FADs) of 103 migrant birds in northeastern USA and found that both long-distance migrants (LDMs; wintering south of the USA) and short-distance migrants (SDMs; wintering in the southern USA) arrived earlier in the second half of the 20th century than they had in the first| consistent with scenarios of global warming; the trend was stronger in SDMs. Using FADs to characterize migration systems can be problematic because they are data from one tail of a distribution| they comprise a mostly male population and they may not correlate well with the balance of the migration period. FADs also provide no information about autumn migration. This paper uses a banding dataset from Long Point Bird Observatory| Ontario| for 14 passerines for a period of global warming (1975-2000)| taking these issues into account. The data were filtered to minimize effects of unequal netting effort (147 491 resulting records)| and the passage dates then calculated in each season of each year for the 1st| 2nd and 3rd quartiles for regression analysis. Only two of 13 species analysed in the spring showed significantly earlier passage times| although the overall trend was towards earlier spring migration| especially among SDMs. Autumn responses were more prevalent| however| and in some cases more dramatic with six of 13 species showing delayed migration (four SDMs| two LDMs). Two LDMs exhibited earlier autumn migration. Where earlier spring migration occurred| both sexes appeared to contribute to the change. Where delayed migration occurred in autumn| both sexes and both adults and hatch-year birds appeared to contribute in at least some cases. The spring FAD results are consistent with those of Butler| but when the whole migration is considered| change is far from universal in spring and is in fact more substantial and complex in autumn. 1800,2005,2,4,Changes in tropical cyclone number| duration| and intensity in a warming environment,We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years| in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific| Indian| and Southwest Pacific Oceans| and the smallest percentage increase occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. These increases have taken place while the number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in all basins except the North Atlantic during the past decade. 6882,2005,2,4,Changes in world ocean nitrate availability through the 20th century,Conceptual models linking climate change with fluctuations in fish population abundances are based on how cyclic patterns in air sea interactions influence pelagic food web dynamics. The effect of changing mixed layer dynamics on phytoplankton light and nutrient exposure is a prominent focal point in the overall mechanism. The Extended Reconstruction (ER) of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) version one (ERSSTv1) and version two (ERSSTv2) monthly time series from 1854 to 2003| interpreted with the aid of a historically based global Nitrate Depletion Temperature (NDT) climatology| provide a qualitative tool for examining relative temporal and spatial patterns in nitrate availability in normal salinity areas of the world ocean. After an analysis of local NDT variability at four time series stations demonstrated temporal stability compared to SST| [SST-NDT] as a Nitrate Availability Index (NAI) was calculated for April (boreal spring or austral fall) and October (boreal fall and austral spring) for the whole ERSSTv1 data set and for selected years of the ERSSTv2 data set using the global NDT climatology. The more negative the NAI difference| the greater the expected surface nitrate. The more positive the NAI difference| the greater the intensity of temperature stratification between the surface and the nitracline and thus the less likely that nitrate mixed to the surface. The records from April and October both showed that decreased nitrate availability| defined by both smaller negative NAI differences and larger positive NAI differences| generally though not universally occurred throughout the 20th century in association with global warming. The greatest decreases in nitrate availability occurred in two warming events in the time periods 1909-1937 and 1977-present in the Northern Hemisphere and 1926-1937 and 1950-1990 in the Southern Hemisphere. Different areas of the world ocean were affected in each warming event. Prominent exceptions in the ERSSTv1 analysis where 20th century nitrate availability actually increased in at least one season were in western parts of the South Indian| the North Pacific| the equatorial Pacific| the South Pacific| the North Atlantic| and the South Atlantic and in eastern parts of the South Pacific and South Atlantic. The ERSSTv2 analysis also showed increased 20th century nitrate availability in the eastern subarctic Pacific. The nitrate availability trends resulting from the present analysis agree with various literature reports on regional changes in plant nutrient availability| on increased occurrences of harmful algal blooms often associated with dinoflagellates that are better able to access subsurface nitrate pools| and on decadal changes in marine fisheries. They also raise concerns about the resilience of historical patterns of pelagic community structure and function in response to a warming trend continuing into the 21st century. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1798,2005,2,4,Changes of anti-oxidative enzymes and MDA content under soil water deficits among 10 wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes at maturation stage,Drought is a world-spread problem seriously influencing grain production and quality| the loss of which is the total for other natural disasters| with increasing global climate change making the situation more serious. Wheat is the staple food for more than 35% of world population| so wheat anti-drought physiology study is of importance to wheat production and biological breeding for the sake of coping with abiotic and biotic conditions. Much research is involved in this hot topic| but the pace of progress is not so large because of drought resistance being a multiple-gene-control quantitative character and wheat genome being larger (16|000 Mb). On the other hand| stress adaptive mechanisms are quite different| with stress degree| time course| materials| soil quality status and experimental plots| thus increasing the complexity of the issue in question. Additionally| a little study is related to the whole life circle of wheat| which cannot provide a comprehensive understanding of its anti-drought machinery. We selected 10 kinds of wheat genotypes as materials| which have potential to be applied in practice| and measured change of relative physiological indices through wheat whole growing-developmental circle (i.e. seedling| tillering and maturing). Here| we reported the anti-oxidative results of maturation stage (the results of seedling and tillering stage have been published) in terms of activities of POD| SOD| CAT and MDA content as follows: (1) 10 wheat genotypes can be grouped into three kinds (A-C| respectively) according to their changing trend of the measured indices; (2) A group performed better resistance drought under the condition of treatment level 1 (appropriate level)| whose activities of anti-oxidative enzymes (POD| SOD| CAT) were higher and MDA lower; (3) B group exhibited stronger anti-drought under treatment level 2 (light-stress level)| whose activities of anti-oxidative enzymes were higher and MDA lower; (4) C group expressed anti-drought to some extent under treatment level 3 (serious-stress level)| whose activities of anti-oxidative enzymes were stronger| MDA lower; (5) these results demonstrated that different wheat genotypes have different physiological mechanisms to adapt themselves to changing drought stress| whose molecular basis is discrete gene expression profiling (transcriptom); (6) our results also showed that the concept and method accepted and adopted by most researchers [T.C. Hsiao| Plant response to water stress| Ann. Rev. Plant Physiol. 24 (1973) 519-570]| that 75% FC is a proper supply for higher plants| was doubted| because this level could not reflect the true suitable level of different wheat genotypes. The study in this respect is the key to wheat anti-drought and biological-saving water agriculture; (7) our research can provide insights into physiological mechanisms of crop anti-drought and direct practical materials for wheat anti-drought breeding; (8) the physiological study of wheat is more urgent up-to-date and molecular aspects are needed| but cannot substitute this important part. The combination of both is an important strategy and a key and (9) POD| SOD and CAT activities and MDA content of different wheat genotypes had quite different changing trend at different stages and under different soil water stress conditions| which was linked with their origin of cultivation and individual soil water threshold. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1843,2005,2,4,Changes of anti-oxidative enzymes and membrane peroxidation for soil water deficits among 10 wheat genotypes at seedling,Drought is one of the major factors limiting crop production globally| with increasing global climate change making the situation more serious. Wheat is the staple food for more than 35% of world population| so wheat anti-drought physiology study is of importance to wheat production and biological breeding for the sake of coping with abiotic and biotic conditions. Much research is involved in this hot topic| but the pace of progress is not so large because of drought resistance being a multiple-gene-control quantitative character and wheat genome being larger (16|000 Mb). On the other hand| stress adaptive mechanisms are quite different| with stress degree| time course| materials| and experimental plots| thus increasing the complexity of the issue in question. Additionally| a little study is related to the whole life circle of wheat| which cannot provide a comprehensive understanding of its anti-drought machinery. We selected 10 kinds of wheat genotypes as materials| which have potential to be applied in practice| and measured relative change of anti-oxidative enzymes and membrane peroxidation through wheat whole growth-developmental circle (i.e. seedling| tillering and maturing). Here| we firstly reported the results of seedling stage as follows: (1) 10 wheat genotypes can be grouped into three kinds (A-C| respectively) according to their changing trend of the measured indices; (2) A performed better resistance drought under the condition of treatment level 1 (appropriate level)| whose activities of anti-oxidative enzymes (POD| SOD| CAT) were higher and MDA lower and chlorophyll a + b higher; (3) B exhibited stronger anti-drought under treatment level 2 (light stress level)| whose activities of anti-oxidative enzymes were higher| MDA lower and chlorophyll higher; (4) C expressed anti-drought to some extent under treatment level 3 (serious stress)| whose activities of anti-oxidative enzymes were stronger| MDA lower and chlorophyll higher; (5) these results demonstrated that different wheat genotypes have different physiological mechanisms to adapt themselves to changing drought stress| whose molecular basis is discrete gene expression profiling (transcriptom); (6) our results also showed that the concept accepted by most researchers| 70-75% QF [T.C. Hsiao| Plant responses to water stress| Ann. Rev. Plant Physiol. 24 (1973) 519-570] is a proper supply for plants| was doubted| because this level could not reflect the true suitable level of wheat. The study in this respect is the key to wheat anti-drought and biological saving-water; (7) our research can provide insights into physiological mechanisms of crop anti-drought and direct practical materials for wheat anti-drought breeding. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6844,2005,2,4,Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming,Using a multi-model multi-scenario ensemble of integrations made for the forthcoming fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| the frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures at the end of the 21st Century is estimated. In this study an extreme temperature is defined as lying above the 95 percentile of the simulated temperature distribution for 20th Century climate. The model probability of extreme warm seasons is heterogeneous over the globe and rises to over 90% in large parts of the tropics. This would correspond to an average return period of such anomalous warm seasons of almost one year. The reliability of these results is assessed using the bounding box technique| previously used to quantify the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts. It is shown that the dramatic increase in extreme warm seasons arises from the combined effect of a shift and a broadening of the temperature distributions. 1803,2005,4,4,Characterization of microsatellite loci in Schoenoplectus americanus (Cyperaceae),Schoenoplectus americanus is a model organism for studying ecological and ecosystem responses of salt marsh plant communities to global climate change. Here we characterize 16 microsatellite loci in S. americanus to facilitate studies on the genetic basis of phenotypic responses to changing climate conditions such as elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide. Most loci also amplified in the morphologically similar sister species| Schoenoplectus pungens. Five loci exhibited species-specific alleles or distinct allelic size distributions that discriminate S. americanus from S. pungens. 7146,2005,2,4,Climate change and recent genetic flux in populations of Drosophila robusta,Background: Studied since the early 1940's| chromosomal polymorphisms in the deciduous woods species Drosophila robusta have been characterized by well-defined latitudinal| longitudinal| and elevational clines| but-until at least ten years ago-stable| local population frequencies. Recent biogeographical analyses indicate that D. robusta invaded North America from southeast Asia and has persisted in eastern temperate forests for at least 20 - 25 my without speciating. The abundant chromosome polymorphisms found across the range of D. robusta are thus likely to be relatively ancient| having accumulated over many well known climatic cycles in North America. Sufficient long-term data are now available such that we can now gauge the rate of these evolutionary changes in natural populations due to environmental change. Results: Recent local collections have revealed significant changes in the frequencies of several chromosomal forms. New data presented here extend the range of these changes to six states| three in the northeastern United States and three west of the Mississippi River. These data reinforce recent directional changes in which the frequencies of three gene arrangements have reached percentage levels typical of distant southern populations consistent with regional climatic changes. Another gene arrangement has been steadily decreasing in frequency at a number of the sites studied. Meteorological records from 1945 to 2003 indicate temperature increases at all study sites| particularly average minimum air temperatures. Conclusions: Observation of parallel genetic flux suggests that these long-term temporal frequency shifts in widely disparate populations of D. robusta are evolutionary responses to environmental change. Since these chromosomes are known to be sensitive to ambient temperature| regional climatic shifts associated with global warming are likely to be responsible. 7119,2005,2,4,Climate change effects on species interactions in an alpine plant community,1 I examined the role of species interactions on the population dynamics of the herb Thalictrum alpinum and the sedge Carex vaginata by removing the dwarf shrub Dryas octopetala over four growing seasons at Finse| in the alpine region of south Norway| Furthermore| by increasing temperature (open top chambers) and nutrient availability (nutrient addition)| I assessed the effects of climate warming on biotic interactions. 2 Dryas removal increased the number of Thalictrum and Carex leaves| and flowering frequency of Carex. Flower stems and leaf stalks of Thalictrum| and the leaves of Carex| became significantly shorter following Dryas removal. Warming and nutrient addition increased vegetative plant growth| whereas warming alone had positive effects on sexual reproductive effort of the target species. My results suggest that there is both competition for nutrients| and a facilitative shelter effect of Dryas on its neighbours. 3 Species interactions affected population dynamics of Thalictrum and Carex. Interactions between the impacts of Dryas removal and abiotic factors on leaf production| suggested that interactions between Dryas and neighbouring species might be modified if temperature and| in particular| nutrient availability increase under global warming. 4 This study shows that both biotic interactions and abiotic environmental conditions may affect alpine plant population dynamics. Furthermore| it shows that climate change may modify species interactions. 5 Species interaction effects should be included in climate change experiments and in future models predicting plant community changes under global warming. 1895,2005,2,4,Climate change impacts and vegetation response on the island of Madagascar,The island of Madagascar has been labelled the world's number one conservation 'hot spot' because of increasing anthropogenic degradation of its natural habitats| which support a high level of species endemism. However| climatic phenomena may also have a significant impact upon the island's flora and fauna. An analysis of 18 years of monthly satellite images from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) have demonstrated that there is a dynamic pattern in Madagascar's vegetative cover both annually and seasonally throughout 1982-1999. Over interannual time-scales| we show that this vegetation response| calculated using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)| has a strong negative correlation with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| which can be attributable to drought events and associated wildfires. Global climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of the ENSO phenomenon| resulting in further decline of Madagascar's natural environment. 1874,2005,2,3,Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: An integrated assessment - Part 4: Water resources,Global climate change will impact the hydrologic cycle by increasing the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture. Anticipated impacts are generally increased evaporation at low latitudes and increased precipitation at middle and high latitudes. General Circulation Models (GCMs) used to simulate climate disagree on whether the U.S. as a whole and its constituent regions will receive more or less precipitation as global warming occurs. The impacts on specific regions will depend on changes in weather patterns and are certain to be complex. Here we apply the suite of 12 potential climate change scenarios| previously described in Part 1| to the Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States (HUMUS) to simulate water supply in the conterminous United States in reference to a baseline scenario. We examine the sufficiency of this water supply to meet changing demands of irrigated agriculture. The changes in water supply driven by changes in climate will likely be most consequential in the semi-arid western parts of the country where water yield is currently scarce and the resource is intensively managed. Changes of greater than +/-50% with respect to present day water yield are projected in parts of the Midwest and Southwest U.S. Interannual variability in the water supply is likely to increase where conditions become drier and to decrease under wetter conditions. 7096,2005,2,4,Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: An integrated assessment - Part 5. Irrigated agriculture and national grain crop production,During this century global warming will lead to changes in global weather and climate| affecting many aspects of our environment. Agriculture is the sector of the United States economy most likely to be directly impacted by climatic changes. We have examined potential changes in dryland agriculture (Part 3) and in water resources necessary for crop production (Part 4) in response to a set of climate change scenarios. In this paper we assess to what extent| under these same scenarios| water supplies will be sufficient to meet the irrigation requirement of major grain crops in the US. In addition| we assess the overall impacts of changes in water supply on national grain production. We apply the 12 climate change scenarios described in Part 1 to the water resources and crop growth simulation models described in Part 2 for the conterminous United States. Drawing on data from Parts 3 and 4 we calculate what the aggregate national production would be in those regions in which grain crops are currently produced by applying irrigation where needed and water supplies allow. The total amount of irrigation water applied to crops declines under all climate change scenarios employed in this study. Under certain of the scenarios and in particular regions| precipitation decreases so much that water supplies are too limited; in other regions precipitation becomes so plentiful that little value is derived from irrigation. Nationwide grain crop production is greater when irrigation is applied as needed. Under irrigation| less corn and soybeans are produced under most of the climate change scenarios than is produced under baseline climate conditions. Winter wheat production under irrigation responds significantly to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2] and appears likely to increase under climate change. 7068,2005,4,3,Climate change scenarios for the Hudson Bay region: An intermodel comparison,General circulation models (GCMs) are unanimous in projecting warmer temperatures in an enhanced CO2 atmosphere| with amplification of this warming in higher latitudes. The Hudson Bay region| which is located in the Arctic and subarctic regions of Canada| should therefore be strongly influenced by global warming. In this study| we compare the response of Hudson Bay to a transient warming scenario provided by six-coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Our analysis focuses on surface temperature| precipitation| sea-ice coverage| and permafrost distribution. The results show that warming is expected to peak in winter over the ocean| because of a northward retreat of the sea-ice cover. Also| a secondary warming peak is observed in summer over land in the Canadian and Australian-coupled GCMs| which is associated with both a reduction in soil moisture conditions and changes in permafrost distribution. In addition| a relationship is identified between the retreat of the sea-ice cover and an enhancement of precipitation over both land and oceanic surfaces. The response of the sea-ice cover and permafrost layer to global warming varies considerably among models and thus large differences are observed in the projected regional increase in temperature and precipitation. In view of the important feedbacks that a retreat of the sea-ice cover and the distribution of permafrost are likely to play in the doubled and tripled CO2 climates of Hudson Bay| a good representation of these two parameters is necessary to provide realistic climate change scenarios. The use of higher resolution regional climate model is recommended to develop scenarios of climate change for the Hudson Bay region. 6966,2005,2,4,Climate change-driven forest fires marginalize the impact of ice cap wasting on Kilimanjaro,The disappearing glaciers of Kilimanjaro are attracting broad interest. Less conspicuous but ecologically far more significant is the associated increase of frequency and intensity of fires on the slopes of Kilimanjaro| which leads to a downward shift of the upper forest line by several hundred meters as a result of a drier (warmer) climate since the last century. In contrast to common belief| global warming does not necessarily cause upward migration of plants and animals. Here| it is shown that on Kilimanjaro the opposite trend is under way| with consequences more harmful than those due to the loss of the showy ice cap of Africa's highest mountain. 7115,2005,2,4,Climate change: Length of growing-season in the US Corn Belt| 1911-2000,Length of growing-season data were obtained from 90 weather stations covering the core of the U.S. Corn Belt from 1911-2000 and analyzed qualitatively and statistically to ascertain if any systematic trends in warming were/are occurring within the context of global warming. We found that the 1920s were statistically cooler and the 1990s warmer. No discernible trend was statistically found throughout the 90-year period. Qualitatively| the onset of the growing season occurred at an earlier date as the 20th century progressed| but was not found statistically significant. Trends regarding termination dates were inconclusive. 1785,2005,2,4,Climate changes and tree phylogeography in the Mediterranean,The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing global climate change than most other regions of the earth. Given the magnitude of forecasted trends| there are great concerns for the particularly rich biodiversity found in the region. Studies of the consequences of past climate shifts on biodiversity represent one of the best sources of data to validate models of the ecological and evolutionary consequences of future changes. Here we review recent findings from palaeoecology| phylogeography and climate change research to (1) explore possible antecedents of the predicted climate warming in the younger geological history of the Mediterranean Basin| (2) assess how tree populations have reacted to them| and (3) evaluate the significance of the evolutionary heritage that is at stake. A major question of our retrospective approach is whether Quaternary tree extinctions took place primarily during glacial or during interglacial episodes. Available data are scanty and somewhat conflicting. In contrast| abundant phylogeographic evidence clearly indicates that the bulk of genetic diversity in European temperate tree species is almost invariably located in the southernmost part of their range. Long-term persistence of isolated populations have been common phenomena in the Mediterranean| to the point that the current genetic structure in this area probably often reflects population divergence that pre-dates the onset of the Mediterranean climate in the Pliocene. In particular| Tertiary migrations into the Mediterranean of tree taxa originating from Asia seem to have left their footprints in the current genetic structure in these slowly evolving organisms. Moreover| phylogeographic studies point to heterogeneous rates of molecular evolution across lineages that are inversely related with their stability. We conclude that relict tree populations in the Mediterranean Basin represent an evolutionary heritage of disproportionate significance for the conservation of European plant biodiversity. 6756,2005,2,3,Climate effects of global land cover change,When changing from grass and croplands to forest| there are two competing effects of land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to warming and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate. We have performed simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. We find that global replacement of current vegetation by trees would lead to a global mean warming of 1.3 degrees C| nearly 60% of the warming produced under a doubled CO2 concentration| while replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 degrees C. It has been previously shown that boreal forestation can lead to warming; our simulations indicate that mid-latitude forestation also could lead to warming. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. 6803,2005,2,4,Climate science and famine early warning,Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism| climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations| and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context| and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards| in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future| many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast| with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency| troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas| associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation| forecasting| data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised. 6860,2005,3,3,Climate sensitivity of marine energy,Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically| it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming| wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversion: where the resource is constrained| production and economic performance may suffer; alternatively| stormier climates may create survival issues. Here| a relatively simple sensitivity study is used to quantify how changes in mean wind speed-as a proxy for wider climate change-influence wind and wave energy production and economics. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7029,2005,2,2,Climate variability and change: Past| present and future - An overview,Prior to the 20th century Northern Hemisphere average surface air temperatures have varied in the order of 0.5 degrees C back to AD 1000. Various climate reconstructions indicate that slow cooling took place until the beginning of the 20th century. Subsequently| global-average surface air temperature increased by about 0.6 degrees C with the 1990s being the warmest decade on record. The pattern of warming has been greatest over mid-latitude northern continents in the latter part of the century. At the same time the frequency of air frosts has decreased over many land areas| and there has been a drying in the tropics and sub-tropics. The late 20th century changes have been attributed to global warming because of increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations due to human activities. Underneath these trends is that of decadal scale variability in the Pacific basin at least induced by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)| which causes decadal changes in climate averages. On interannnual timescales El Ni (n) over tildeo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes much variability throughout many tropical and subtropical regions and some mid-latitude areas. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) provides climate perturbations over Europe and northern Africa. During the course of the 21st century global-average surface temperatures are very likely to increase by 2 to 4.5 degrees C as greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase. At the same time there will be changes in precipitation| and climate extremes such as hot days| heavy rainfall and drought are expected to increase in many areas. The combination of global warming| superimposed on decadal climate variability (IPO) and interannual fluctuations (ENSO| NAO) are expected lead to a century of increasing climate variability and change that will be unprecedented in the history of human settlement. Although the changes of the past and present have stressed food and fibre production at times| the 21st century changes will be extremely challenging to agriculture and forestry. 7016,2005,2,4,Climate variability reveals complex events for tularemia dynamics in man and mammals,Tularemia is caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis| but the natural reservoir is unknown and environmental conditions for outbreaks in mammals and man are poorly understood. The present study analyzed the synchrony between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index| the number of human cases of tularemia reported in Sweden| and the density of hares. Climate variation at a lag of 2 yr explained as a single factor similar to 27% of the variation in the number of tularemia cases over time. A low NAO index| indicating cold winters| and low water flow in rivers during the coming summer were associated with high numbers of human cases of tularemia 2 yr later. The number of mountain hares was not related to NAO or to the number of cases of tularemia. The change in mountain hare numbers was negatively associated with the number of human cases| showing the sensitivity of this species to the disease. Low turnover in water environments may at some point in time trigger a chain of events leading to increased replication of F. tularensis via unknown reservoirs and/or vectors that affect humans and mammals. A possible increase in the NAO index with a future warmer climate would not be expected to facilitate a higher frequency of tularemia outbreaks in Sweden. 6890,2005,2,4,Climatic factors influencing fluxes of dissolved organic carbon from the forest floor in a continuous-permafrost Siberian watershed,Fluxes of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in forested watersheds underlain by permafrost are likely to vary with changes in climatic regime that increase soil moisture and temperature. We examined the effects of temporal and spatial variations in soil temperature and moisture on DOC fluxes from the forest floor of contrasting north- and south-facing slopes in central Siberia. DOC fluxes increased throughout the growing season (June-September) on both slopes in 2002 and 2003. The most favorable combination of moisture content and temperature (deepest active soil layer) occurred in September| and we believe this was the primary driver of increased DOC concentrations and flux in autumn. Total DOC flux for June-September was 12.6-17.6 g C(.)m(-2) on the south-facing slope and 4.6-8.9 g C(.)m(-2) on the north-facing slope. DOC concentrations in forest floor leachates increased with increasing temperature on the north-facing slope| but were almost unaffected by temperature on the south-facing slope. Our results suggest that water input in midseason from melting of ice or precipitation events is the primary factor limiting DOC production. Significant positive correlations between amounts of precipitation and DOC flux were found on both slopes. Dilution of DOC concentrations by high precipitation volumes was observed only for the forest floor leachates collected from the north-facing slope. Our results suggest that global warming will result in increased DOC production in forest floors of permafrost regions| and that precipitation patterns will play an important role in determining the magnitude of these changes in DOC flux as well as its interannual variability. However| the longer-term response of soils and DOC flux to a warming climate will be driven by changes in vegetation and microbial communities as well as by the direct results of temperature and moisture conditions. 6789,2005,2,4,CLIMATIC FEATURES OF SUMMER TEMPERATURE IN NORTHEAST CHINA UNDER WARMING BACKGROUND,By using| summer temperature data in 26 stations from 1951 to 2003| the variation characteristics of summer temperature in Northeast China (NET) were analyzed based on the background of climate warming. The results showed that the warming in summer was 0.15 degrees C/10a in Northeast China| which was higher than that on the global| Northern Hemisphere or Northeast Asia scale in the recent 50 years. The responses of NET to global warming were shown in 3 aspects mainly. Firstly| it became warm and the average temperature increased in summer; secondly| the temperature variability increased| which displayed the increase of climatic instability; thirdly| the disaster of low temperature decreased and high temperature damage increased obviously| but the disaster of low temperature still existed in some areas under global warming backgrotmd| which would be worthy of notice further. 6804,2005,2,4,Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: Implications of global warming,Insect outbreaks are expected to increase in frequency and intensity with projected changes in global climate through direct effects of climate change on insect populations and through disruption of community interactions. Although there is much concern about mean changes in global climate| the impact of climatic variability itself on species interactions has been little explored. Here| we compare caterpillar-parasitoid interactions across a broad gradient of climatic variability and find that the combined data in 15 geographically dispersed databases show a decrease in levels of parasitism as climatic variability increases. The dominant contribution to this pattern by relatively specialized parasitoid wasps suggests that climatic variability impairs the ability of parasitoids to track host populations. Given the important role of parasitoids in regulating insect herbivore populations in natural and managed systems| we predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of herbivore outbreaks through a disruption of enemy-herbivore dynamics as climates become more variable. 7174,2005,3,3,CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes from soybean and barley double-cropping in relation to tillage in Japan,To examine whether no-tillage cultivation of upland fields mitigates greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture| seasonal changes in CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O emissions were measured for conventional tillage cultivation and no-tillage cultivation over a whole year (May 13| 2002 to May 13| 2003) in Tsukuba| Japan| which has a temperate climate. The soil respiration rate depended on soil temperature| and increased with a rise of soil temperature. Annual soil respiration amount was 2845 +/- 967 g CO(2) m(-2) y(-1) in the conventional tillage cultivation plot and 2198 +/- 656 g CO(2) m(-2) y(-1) in the no-tillage cultivation plot| *but there was no significant difference between the two plots. Thus| the annual soil respiration amount under no-tillage conditions cultivation showed a decrease by 23% from that under conventional tillage. When organic matter was incorporated into the soil by plowing-in of the crop residue in the conventional tillage plot after harvesting the crops| the soil respiration rate and N(2)O flux increased rapidly. The majority of the difference (648 g CO(2) m(-2) y(-1)) of the annual soil respiration amount between the conventional tillage and the no-tillage plots corresponded to the difference in that from fallow periods (444 g CO(2) M per period). A comparison of total greenhouse gas emissions in terms of carbon equivalent (the sum of emissions of each type of greenhouse gas multiplied by its global warming potential) from soybean and barley doublecropping using conventional tillage and no-tillage methods showed that lower carbon emission of 183 g carbon m(-2) y(-1) was possible by the use of no-tillage cultivation. These results clearly show that no-tillage cultivation is one of the most promising strategies for mitigation of greenhouse gas emission from the agricultural sector. 1861,2005,2,4,Coevolution and biogeography among Nematodirinae (Nematoda : Trichostrongylina) Lagomorpha and Artiodactyla (Mammalia): Exploring determinants of history and structure for the northern fauna across the Holarctic,Nematodes of the subfamily Nematodirinae are characteristic components of a Holarctic fauna. The topology of a generic-level phylogenetic hypothesis| patterns of diversity. and geographic distributions for respective nematode taxa in conjunction with data for host occurrence are consistent with primary distributions determined across Beringia for species of Murielus| Rauschia| Nematodirus| and Nematodirella. Ancestral hosts are represented by Lagomorpha| with evidence for a minimum of 1 host-switching-event and subsequent radiation in the Artiodactyla. Diversification may reflect vicariance of respective faunas along with episodic or cyclical range expansion and isolation across Beringia during the late Tertiary and Quaternary. Secondarily| species of Nematodirus attained a distribution in the Neotropical region with minimal diversification of an endemic fauna represented by Nematodirus molini among tayassuids| Nematodirus lamae among camelids and Nematodirus urichi in cervids during the Pleistocene. Nematodirines are a core component of an Arctic-Boreal fauna of zooparasitic nematodes (defined by latitude and altitude) adapted to transmission in extreme environments characterized by seasonally low temperatures and varying degrees of desiccation. The history and distribution of this fauna is examined in the context of biotic and abiotic determinants for geographic colonization and host switching with an exploration of predicted responses of complex host-parasite systems to ecological perturbation under a regime of global climate change. 6777,2005,2,4,Comments on "Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming" by Labat et al.,We have examined the evidence presented by Labat et al. and found that (1) their claims for a 4% increase in global runoff arising from a I degrees C increase in air temperature and (2) that their article provides the "first experimental data-based evidence demonstrating the link between the global warming and the intensification of the global hydrological cycle" are not supported by the data presented. Our conclusions are based on the facts that (1) their discharge records exhibit non-climatic influences and trends| (2) their work cannot refute previous studies finding no relation between air temperature and runoff| (3) their conclusions cannot explain relations before 1925| and (4) the statistical significance of their results hinges on a single data point that exerts undue influence on the slope of the regression line. We argue that Labat et al. have not provided sufficient evidence to support their claim for having detected increases in global runoff resulting from climate warming. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6968,2005,3,4,Comparative LCAs for curbside recycling versus either landfilling or incineration with energy recovery,Background. This article describes two projects conducted recently by Sound Resource Management (SRMG) - one for the San Luis Obispo County Integrated Waste Management Authority (SLO IWMA) and the other for the Washington State Department of Ecology (WA Ecology). For both projects we used life cycle assessment (LCA) techniques to evaluate the environmental burdens associated with collection and management of municipal solid waste. Both projects compared environmental burdens from curbside collection for recycling| processing| and market shipment of recyclable materials picked up from households and/or businesses against environmental burdens from curbside collection and disposal of mixed solid waste. Methodology. The SLO IWMA project compared curbside recycling for households and businesses against curbside collection of mixed refuse for deposition in a landfill where landfill gas is collected and used for energy generation. The WA Ecology project compared residential curbside recycling in three regions of Washington State against the collection and deposition of those same materials in landfills where landfill gas is collected and flared. In the fourth Washington region (the urban east encompassing Spokane) the WA Ecology project compared curbside recycling against collection and deposition in a waste-to-energy (WTE) combustion facility used to generate electricity for sale on the regional energy grid. During the time period covered by the SLO study| households and businesses used either one or two containers| depending on the collection company| to separate and set out materials for recycling in San Luis Obispo County. During the time of the WA study households used either two or three containers for the residential curbside recycling programs surveyed for that study. Typically participants in collection programs requiring separation of materials into more than one container used one of the containers to separate at least glass bottles and jars from other recyclable materials. For the WA Ecology project SRMG used life cycle inventory (LCI) techniques to estimate atmospheric emissions of ten pollutants| waterborne emissions of seventeen pollutants| and emissions of industrial solid waste| as well as total energy consumption| associated with curbside recycling and disposal methods for managing municipal solid waste. Emissions estimates came from the Decision Support Tool (DST) developed for assessing the cost and environmental burdens of integrated solid waste management strategies by North Carolina State University (NCSU) in conjunction with Research Triangle Institute (RTI) and the US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA)(1). RTI used the DST to estimate environmental emissions during the life cycle of products. RTI provided those estimates to SRMG for analysis in the WA Ecology project(2). For the SLO IWMA project SRMG also used LCI techniques and data from the Municipal Solid Waste Life-Cycle Database (Database)| prepared by RTI with the support of US EPA during DST model development| to estimate environmental emissions from solid waste management practices(3). Once we developed the LCI data for each project| SRMG then prepared a life cycle environmental impacts assessment of the environmental burdens associated with these emissions using the Environmental Problems approach discussed in the methodology section of this article. Finally| for the WA study we also developed estimates of the economic costs of certain environmental impacts in order to assess whether recycling was cost effective from a societal point of view. Conclusions. Recycling of newspaper| cardboard| mixed paper| glass bottles and jars| aluminum cans| tin-plated steel cans| plastic bottles| and other conventionally recoverable materials found in household and business municipal solid wastes consumes less energy and imposes lower environmental burdens than disposal of solid waste materials via landfilling or incineration| even after accounting for energy that may be recovered from waste materials at either type disposal facility. This result holds for a variety of environmental impacts| including global warming| acidification| eutrophication| disability adjusted life year (DALY) losses from emission of criteria air pollutants| human toxicity and ecological toxicity. The basic reason for this conclusion is that energy conservation and pollution prevention engendered by using recycled rather than virgin materials as feedstocks for manufacturing new products tends to be an order of magnitude greater than the additional energy and environmental burdens imposed by curbside collection trucks| recycled material processing facilities| and transportation of processed recyclables to end-use markets. Furthermore| the energy grid offsets and associated reductions in environmental burdens yielded by generation of energy from landfill gas or from waste combustion are substantially smaller then the upstream energy and pollution offsets attained by manufacturing products with processed recyclables| even after accounting for energy usage and pollutant emissions during collection| processing and transportation to end-use markets for recycled materials. The analysis that leads to this conclusion included a direct comparison of the collection for recycling versus collection for disposal of the same quantity and composition of materials handled through existing curbside recycling programs in Washington State. This comparison provides a better approximation to marginal energy usage and environmental burdens of recycling versus disposal for recyclable materials in solid waste than does a comparison of the energy and environmental impacts of recycling versus management methods for handling typical mixed refuse| where that refuse includes organics and non-recyclables in addition to whatever recyclable materials may remain in the garbage. Finally| the analysis also suggests that| under reasonable assumptions regarding the economic cost of impacts from pollutant emissions| the societal benefits of recycling outweigh its costs. 6774,2005,3,4,Comparing life cycle implications of building retrofit and replacement options,When is it better to retrofit a building as opposed to demolishing and rebuilding it? Life cycle environmental and economic analyses are used to address this question through the study of a typical four bedroom detached house in Toronto. Three vintages of the reference house are used: 1930s solid masonry; 1960s wood frame; and post oil crisis| 1980s wood frame. Retrofit studies considered include insulating the attic and basement walls and air leakage sealing. Over a 40-year life cycle| the rebuild option has lower life cycle energy| global warming potential| and air pollution| which are predominantly associated with building operation. But the retrofit options have lower water pollution| solid waste generation| and weighted resource use| associated with material flows. The retrofit options also have lower life cycle economic costs than rebuilding. In this respect| the preferred options are basement plus air leakage sealing retrofit for the 1930s house| basement retrofit for the 1960s house| and no change for 1980s house. There are ways to overcome the trade-off in negative environmental impacts between retrofitting and rebuilding| such as use of renewable energy sources or re-use and recycling of deconstruction and demolition materials in new construction. 6862,2005,3,4,Comparison between heat pipe and direct heat exchange solar louvre collectors,International concern about the environmental implications of climate change coupled with increasing demand for energy to fuel modern society has lead to growing interest in using renewable energy sources as alternatives to conventional sources. The work presented in this paper compares two types of solar collector integrated into louvred shading devices. In addition to protecting glazed spaces in buildings from excessive solar gain| the collector would provide the flexibility to produce systems customized for collecting heat over a temperature-range appropriate to particular building services applications at various climates/locations. This would allow considerable savings to be made in primary energy consumption and lead to a reduction in global warming impact. Two solar absorbers| based on different techniques of heat exchange| were tested experimentally. The first was based on a direct heat exchange technique| and the second used heat pipe technology. Various comparisons were made and it was concluded that the heat pipe solar louvre collector was the preferred device. 1871,2005,5,4,Comparison of climate space and phylogeny of Marmota (Mammalia : Rodentia) indicates a connection between evolutionary history and climate preference,Palaeobiologists have investigated the evolutionary responses of extinct organisms to climate change| and have also used extinct organisms to reconstruct palaeoclimates. There is evidence of a disconnection between climate change and evolution that suggests that organisms may not be accurate palaeoclimate indicators. Here| marmots (Marmota sp.) are used as a case study to examine whether similarity of climate preferences is correlated with evolutionary relatedness of species. This study tests for a relationship between phylogenetic distance and 'climate distance' of species within a clade. There should be a significant congruence between maximum likelihood distance and standardized Euclidian distance between climates if daughter species tend to stay in environments similar to parent species. Marmots make a good test case because there are many extant species| their phylogenies are well established and individual survival is linked to climatic factors. A Mantel test indicates a significant correlation between climate and phylogenetic distance matrices| but this relationship explains only a small fraction of the variance (regression R-2 = 0.114). These results suggest that (i) closely related species of marmots tend to stay in similar environments; (ii) marmots may be more susceptible than many mammals to global climate change; and (iii) because of the considerable noise in this system| the correlation cannot be used for detailed palaeoclimate reconstruction. 7033,2005,4,4,Comparison of variations of surface air temperatures in eastern and western China during 1951 similar to 2002,Based on monthly averaged surface air temperature data of 733 stations in China during 1951 2002| after rejecting 86 stations in the large cities| we analyze the consistencies and differences of the trends in surface air temperatures over eastern| western China and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and discuss their causes. The results show that there are close connections and consistency in variations of annual and seasonal mean surface air temperatures in eastern and western China. Warming trends are all significant in eastern and western China with a rate of 0.26 degrees C/10a in eastern China and 0.18 degrees C/10a in western China| respectively. Seasonally| mean temperatures also tended warm but the warmest trends appeared in winter in both eastern and western China. The annual mean warming trend in eastern China is more obvious than that in western China. In winter and spring| warming trends in eastern China are greater than those in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western China| while in summer and autumn they are smaller in eastern China. The consistency of warming trends in eastern and western China suggests that surface air temperatures in both eastern and western China are influenced by global warming background. Whereas| the fact that the warming trend in eastern China is more obvious than that in western China implies that topography also plays an important role in regional temperature variations. 6820,2005,2,4,Conservation and behavioral neuroendocrinology,The total number of threatened species of vertebrates is likely to be more than 10|000| with approximately one quarter of the world's mammal species| one eighth of the birds and one third of the amphibians threatened with extinction. The rate of loss of animal species and hence of biodiversity is increasing and may become even greater as ecosystems become affected by climate change due to global warming. Behavioral neuroendocrinology| which considers interactions between behavior and neuroendocrine function in animals from all vertebrate taxa| can contribute to animal conservation. Research with laboratory animals can address questions in basic biology relevant to conservation and develop methods for use with threatened animals. Field work with free-living animals considers the basic biology of new species and the use of endocrine tools to assess the susceptibility of species to threats. Non-invasive measurements of hormone concentrations| especially fecal steroids| are extensively used to assess reproductive function and the stress status of animals in captive breeding programs and in the wild. Biodiversity and natural selection both depend on individual variation| and conservation programs often work with animals on an individual basis. The consideration of data from individuals is essential in conservation endocrinology. Direct contributions to conservation programs are challenging as study situations are determined by practical conservation concerns. Indirect contributions such as the provision of scientific input to conservation plans and participation in public education programs offer significant benefits for conservation programs. Directly and indirectly| there are many opportunities for behavioral neuroendocrinologists to contribute to conservation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1778,2005,2,4,Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment: Information tools for community adaptation to changes in climate or land use,To inform local and regional decisions about protecting short-term and long-term quality of life| the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides data and tools (for the northeastern United States) that can help decisionmakers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive| user-friendly website| CARA has amassed data on climate (historical records and future projections for seven global climate models)| land cover| and socioeconomic and environmental variables| along with tools to help decisionmakers tailor the data for their own decision types and locations. CARA Advisory Council stakeholders help identify what information and tools stakeholders would find most useful and how to present these: they also provide in-depth feedback for subregion case studies. General lessons include: (1) decisionmakers want detailed local projections for periods short enough to account for extreme events| in contrast to the broader spatial and temporal observations and projections that are available or consistent at a regional level; (2) stakeholders will not use such a website unless it is visually appealing and easy to find the information they want; (3) some stakeholders need background while others want to go immediately to data| and some want maps while others want text or tables. This article also compares what has been learned across case studies of Cape May County| New Jersey| Cape Cod| Massachusetts| and Hampton Roads| Virginia| relating specifically to sea-level rise. Lessons include: (1) groups can be affected differently by physical dangers compared with economic dangers; (2) decisions will differ according to decision makers' preferences about waiting and risk tolerance; (3) future scenarios and maps can help assess the impacts of dangers to emergency evacuation routes| homes| and infrastructure| and the natural environment; (4) residents' and decisionmakers' perceptions are affected by information about potential local impacts from global climate change. 6887,2005,3,3,Contact-hole etching with NH(3)-added C(5)F(8) pulse-modulated plasma,For plasma etching| an alternative perfluorocarbon (PFC) gas is necessary in order to minimize the effect on global warming. Etching contact holes of sub-0.1-mu m size in SiO(2) is studied using an etching gas with a small greenhouse effect| cyclic (c-) C(5)F(8) containing various other gases (O(2)| H(2) and NH(3)). Adding NH(3) to pulse-modulated plasma is quite effective for improving the etching characteristics compared with adding O(2) or H(2). Adding NH3 improves both the hole profile and etching selectivity. The influence of the added NH(3) gas was analyzed by optical emission spectroscopy (OES)| and the correlation between the flow rate of NH(3)| the OES results| and the SiO(2) etching rate was studied. 7227,2005,2,4,Contemporary changes of climate in Poland: Trends and variation in thermal and solar conditions related to plant vegetation,Presented paper analyses climate trends in Poland in the second half of the 20(th) century. Measurements of climate elements were obtained from 5 meteorological stations evenly distributed over Poland (Szczecin 53 degrees 24'N-14 degrees 37'E| Wroclaw 51 degrees 08'N-16 degrees 59'E| Lodz 51 degrees 44'N-19 degrees 24'E|Suwalki 54 degrees 08'N-22 degrees 57'E| Przemysl 49 degrees 48'N-22 degrees 46'E). The variability of several indices conditioning the growth of plant vegetation was determined. Increase in the air temperature in the first three quartiles of the calendar year was detected. During November-December period the opposite tendencies were noted| however not statistically significant. The length of winter period shortened considerably| especially in western Poland. The warming caused substantial rise in potential evapotranspiration| the largest in April| May and August. Summer period has extended during the last five decades. Cumulative temperatures| calculated with respect to the 10 degrees C threshold| also revealed an upward tendency. Sunshine duration totals increased - the highest increase was observed in the western Poland in May-June season. The length of vegetation season (> 5 degrees C) did not change significantly during the 50-year period. There was only a slight tendency towards the earlier occurrence of both beginning and ending date of this season. The climate transformation in Poland| related undoubtedly to global warming| indicates possible intensification of vegetation growth due to more favourable solar and thermal conditions. 7220,2005,4,4,Continuous partial trends and low-frequency oscillations of time series,This paper presents a recent methodology developed for the analysis of the slow evolution of geophysical time series. The method is based on least-squares fitting of continuous line segments to the data| subject to flexible conditions| and is able to objectively locate the times of significant change in the series tendencies. The time distribution of these breakpoints may be an important set of parameters for the analysis of the long term evolution of some geophysical data| simplifying the intercomparison between datasets and offering a new way for the analysis of time varying spatially distributed data. Several application examples| using data that is important in the context of global warming studies| are presented and briefly discussed. 6993,2005,2,4,Correlation between viability of pollination and length of basal dehiscence of the theca in rice under a hot-and-humid condition,Anticipated global warming may increase the floret sterility of rice (Oryza sativa L.). For selection of genotypes tolerant to high temperatures during the flowering period| it is important to identify morphological traits associated with tolerance to temperature stress. This Study investigated the relationship between the length of dehiscence at the basal part of thecae and the viability of pollination in 18 cultivars of rice subjected to a hot-and-humid condition (37/25 degrees C| day/night| > 90% relative humidity) for three days at flowering. Control plants were left under the ambient conditions in a semi-cylindrical house covered with cheesecloth (30% shading; temperature range: 24-35 degrees C). The length of basal dehiscence of thecae and the number of pollen grains on the stigmata were examined with a light microscope after flowering. The length strongly correlated with the percentage of florets having more than 80 pollen grains on the stigmata under the ambient condition (r = 0.72| P < 0.001)| and with the percentage of florets having more than 20 pollen grains on the stigmata tinder the hot condition (r = 0.93| P < 0.001). In other words| the length correlated with pollination viability or reliability under both conditions. In addition| basal dehiscence was shorter in the non-japonica-type cultivars than in many of the japonica-type cultivars under both conditions. We concluded that the low pollination viability in the non-japonica| type cultivars is associated with their small basal dehiscence on the thecae| and the length of basal dehiscence can be used as a selection marker of high temperature tolerance. 6932,2005,3,3,Correlations among the design factors of the CO2 ocean sequestration system| GLAD,An ocean sequestration method to dispose of a large amount Of CO2 gas has been developed to mitigate global warming. This system is called the gas lift advanced dissolution (GLAD) system. This system works by dissolving CO2 gas into seawater at a depth of 200-300. The CO2-rich seawater is then transported to a depth greater than 1000 m. This system is composed of short riser pipes for gas-lift and CO2 dissolution| a tank for separating indissoluble gas ingredients from seawater| and long down-comers for transporting CO2-rich seawater to great depths. For the system to function optimally| the riser pipe needs lobe long and wide enough to dissolve CO2 thoroughly. Also the down-comer has to be long enough to transport the CO2-rich seawater to great depths and sufficiently large in diameter to enable transportation of large quantities of seawater. The most important aspect for disposal Of CO2 into the ocean is minimizing the environmental impact| especially its influence on marine life. The CO2 concentration of seawater| therefore| must be limited below a certain value in order to minimize the environmental impact. This paper describes a mathematical model of GLAD's internal flow| which was derived to optimize the system specifications| and the correlations among the design factors of GLAD system derived by using this mathematical model. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7070,2005,3,3,Cost-effective emission abatement in agriculture in the presence of interrelations: cases for the Netherlands and Europe,Agriculture contributes to global warming through emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O)| and methane (CH4)| and to acidification mainly through emissions of ammonia (NH3). Measures to reduce one of these gases may affect emissions of others. Policies neglecting these interrelations may be suboptimal. This study investigated interrelations between abatement of ammonia| nitrous oxide| and methane from European agriculture. We first studied how emission reduction technologies simultaneously affect the emissions of these three gases. Next| we analyzed for the Netherlands how the costs of emission reduction are affected when these interrelations are included in the analysis. Cost-effectiveness analysis of emission reductions in agriculture in the Netherlands indicates that increased nitrous oxide emissions due to ammonia abatement can be avoided at low cost. Finally| we calculated at the European level the side effects on ammonia emissions and the greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane of various emissions scenarios for European agriculture. We estimated that nitrous oxide emissions from European agriculture may increase as a side effect of ammonia abatement| whereas ammonia emissions may decrease due to nitrous oxide and methane mitigation. The conclusion is that simultaneous reductions in emissions can be realized at lower overall costs using an integrated approach. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6763,2005,2,2,Coupled model simulations of current Australian surface climate and its changes under greenhouse warming: an analysis of 18 CMIP2 models,Coupled climate models have been extensively used to further our understanding of the dynamics and physics of the Earth's climate system and the potential changes of regional and global climates in the future| especially due to human activities such as fossil fuel burning and land-use activities. Nevertheless| there are still large uncertainties in our knowledge of the global climate system and in our representations of such a complex system. The confidence of our projected future climate change| therefore| inevitably depends on how well the current climate is simulated by coupled climate models and how large the scatter is among the model simulations of current and future climates. As one of the diagnostic subprojects within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase II (CMIP2)| we present an evaluation of 18 CMIP2 coupled model simulations over the Australian region. Monthly rainfall and surface air temperature climatologies over the Australian region have been derived from the 18 CMIP2 control simulations and compared with observations from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The gross spatial patterns of austral summer rainfall (DJF) are reasonably simulated by the majority of the models. However| there are significant model errors in simulating the intensity and location of the heavy Australian monsoon rainfall in the north and eastern parts of the continent| with about half of the models showing more than 100 mm/month biases and a number of models simulating wrong locations of the monsoon rainfall. The seasonal cycle of the surface temperature is reasonably reproduced in the models although there are biases of around 2-4 degrees C present in the model simulated surface air temperature climatology. Based on the 80-year model simulations of perturbed climate| with 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration| the changes of surface air temperature and precipitation have also been analysed. The average annual surface temperature change in the last 20-year period of the model simulations against the model control simulations over the Australian region varies from 1.00 degrees C to 2.18 degrees C| with an ensemble average of 1.59 degrees C and 0.33 degrees C scatter measured by one standard deviation. The models give a mixed signal in predicting averaged Australian rainfall changes| with some models simulating more than 3 mm/month increase while others show more than 4 mm/month decrease with on average no change. The spatial distributions of the model-simulated surface temperature and precipitation changes have also been analysed. Surface temperature is increased over the whole continent in all models| while the changes in precipitation show large spatial variations. The ensemble mean model shows decreases in winter rainfall across southern Australia and over northwestern Australia during summer. Increased rainfall is simulated over parts of eastern Australia during winter| extending further north during summer. Besides the analysis of changes in mean climate| the potential impacts of global warming on Australian climate variability is explored in a preliminary way by analysing the changes in tropical Australian precipitation correlations with surface temperature variations over four key oceanic regions. Results suggest that the influence of tropical and subtropical sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing on the Australian climate may change under greenhouse warming. 7049,2005,4,4,CryoSat: A mission to the ice fields of Earth,The accurate prediction and observation of the ice masses at the poles| and particularly of their rates of change| is of interest to us all| not least because 5% of the Earth's population live just 1 metre above sea level. Native Arctic populations face profound changes to their way of life and even existence. Economic interests| associated with oil and gas and trans-Arctic shipping| will grow as the pack ice declines| as too may strategic concerns over the sovereignty of the Arctic Ocean. The loss of pack ice may also affect the circulation of the Atlantic| and with it the winter weather of Western Europe. CryoSat is ESA's first mission dedicated to the observation of the Earth's polar ice masses. Its goals are to determine if there is indeed a downward trend in the mass of Arctic sea ice| and whether we should regard Antarctica as under threat from global warming. 6918,2005,4,4,DAYCENT model analysis of past and contemporary soil N(2)O and net greenhouse gas flux for major crops in the USA,The DAYCENT ecosystem model (a daily version of CENTURY) and an emission factor (EF) methodology used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were used to estimate direct and indirect N(2)O emission for major cropping systems in the USA. The EF methodology is currently used for the USA greenhouse gas inventory but process based models| such as DAYCENT| may yield more reliable results because they account for factors such as soil type| climate| and tillage intensity that are ignored by EF. Comparison of mean annual soil N(2)O flux estimated by DAYCENT and EF with measured data for different cropping systems yielded r(2) values of 0.74 and 0.67| and mean deviations of -6 and +13%| respectively. At the national scale| DAYCENT simulation of total N(2)O emission was similar to 25% lower than estimated using EF. For both models| N(2)O emission was highest in the central USA followed by the northwest| southwest| southeast| and northeast regions. The models simulated roughly equivalent direct N(2)O emission from fertilized crops| but EF estimated greater direct N(2)O emission than DAYCENT for N-fixing crops. DAYCENT and EF estimates of the gaseous component of indirect N(2)O emission (NO + NH(3)) differed little| but DAYCENT estimated approximately twice the indirect emission from NO(3) leaching since it included the contribution of N from N-fixing crops while EF did not. DAYCENT simulations were also performed for no tillage cropping| pre-1940 crop management| and native vegetation. DAYCENT-simulated N(2)O| CO(2)| and CH(4) fluxes were converted to CO(2)-C equivalents and combined with fuel use estimates to estimate net global warming potential (GWP(net)). GWP(net) for recent non-rice (Oryza sativa L.) major cropping was 0.43 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) under conventional tillage and 0.29 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) under no tillage| for pre-industrial cropping was 0.25 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1)| and for native systems was -0.15 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1). Results from DAYCENT suggest that conversion to no tillage at the national scale could mitigate similar to 20% of USA agricultural emission or similar to 1.5% of total USA emission of greenhouse gases. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7190,2005,3,3,Debating the future of comfort: environmental sustainability| energy consumption and the indoor environment,Vast quantities of energy are consumed in heating and cooling to provide what are now regarded as acceptable standards of thermal comfort. In the UK as in a number of other countries| there is a real danger that responses in anticipation of global warming and climate change - including growing reliance on air-conditioning - will increase energy demand and CO2 emissions even further. This is an appropriate moment to reflect on the history and future of comfort| both as an idea and as a material reality. Based on interviews and discussions with UK policy makers and building practitioners involved in specifying and constructing what will become the indoor environments of the future| four possible scenarios are identified each with different implications for energy and resource consumption. By actively promoting debate about the indoor environment and associated ways of life| it may yet be possible to avoid becoming locked into social and technical trajectories that are ultimately unsustainable. The aim of this paper is to inspire and initiate just such a discussion through demonstrating that comfort is a highly negotiable socio-cultural construct. 7088,2005,2,2,Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation,Reorganizations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation were associated with large and abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial period(1-4). Projections with climate models suggest that similar reorganizations may also occur in response to anthropogenic global warming(5-7). Here I use ensemble simulations with a coupled climate-ecosytem model of intermediate complexity to investigate the possible consequences of such disturbances to the marine ecosystem. In the simulations| a disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation leads to a collapse of the North Atlantic plankton stocks to less than half of their initial biomass| owing to rapid shoaling of winter mixed layers and their associated separation from the deep ocean nutrient reservoir. Globally integrated export production declines by more than 20 per cent owing to reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water and gradual depletion of upper ocean nutrient concentrations. These model results are consistent with the available high-resolution palaeorecord| and suggest that global ocean productivity is sensitive to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. 7060,2005,4,2,Decomposition of factors determining the trend of CO2 emissions from car travel in Great Britain (1970-2000),Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important of the greenhouse gases that are causing global warming. The transport sector currently accounts for more than one-quarter of CO2 emissions and more importantly its share in total emissions is increasing in most countries. This paper investigates the key factors in the change in CO2 emissions from car travel in Great Britain over the last 30 years. It attempts to disentangle determinants of growth in CO2 emissions from car travel| which has the largest share of emissions in road transport. The study is based on various decomposition analyses| starting from the IPAT identity. As summarised in the IPAT identity| the degree of the Impact of human activity on the environment is determined by changes in Population| Affluence.(per-capita consumption) and Technology (environmental impact per quantity of consumption). In the case of CO2 emissions from car travel in Great Britain| the affluence (A) factor (car driving distance per person) was a dominant force for the growth of emissions over the last 30 years. Not only do people travel longer distances by cars than 30 years ago| but car occupancy rates have also decreased| contributing to the growth of car driving distance per person. Although technology (T) factors such as fuel efficiency and fuel substitution to diesel fuel partly cancelled out these growth effects of affluence factors| this contribution was relatively small. However| in the 1990s there emerged a different pattern in the trend. Of the affluence (A) factors| the growth rate of car trip distance per person weakened considerably. As for the technology (7) effect| the carbon intensity of car driving kept decreasing over this period. Therefore| although CO2 emissions from car travel (I) continued to increase| the growth rate became substantially lower than in the earlier periods. More detailed investigation into the determinants of both affluence (A) factors and technology (7) factors is needed to confirm whether the trend in the 1990s indicates that carbon dioxide emission from car travel in Great Britain reached the turning point of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6864,2005,2,4,Decomposition of leaf litter in tropical and subtropical forests of Southern China,In order to examine the effects of global warming on the decomposition of forest leaf litter in Southern China| a reciprocal experiment was designed to decompose forest leaf litter in two sites across climatic zones. One site was located on Mt Jianfengling in the tropical zone and the other| on Mt Dinghushan in the subtropical zone. Both sites were located in NSTEC (North-South Transect in Eastern China)| in which the temperature gradient along the transect was the major driver. The two sites had similar altitudes| soil types| annual mean rainfall and dry and wet seasons. The difference of annual mean-temperature between sites was 3.7 degrees C. Leaf litters of 10 native dominant tree species were collected from the two sites and divided into single-species litter and mixed litter| and they were incubated on the forest floor of the two sites reciprocally. The results indicated that litter decomposed in the tropical site 1.36-3.06 times more rapidly than in the subtropical site. Apparent Q(10)| calculated on the basis of the difference of temperature between sites| ranged from 3.7 to 7.5. The conclusion was that global warming would increase the rate of matter circulation in the subtropical forest ecosystem in China. Mixed litter decomposed more rapidly than single-species litter in subtropical site. Not all dominant species litter could represent mixed litter in decomposition. The variability of decomposition rates among the litter types was less in the tropical site than in the subtropical site. Therefore| the effect of litter quality on litter decomposition was less significant in the warmer conditions of the tropics. 1867,2005,2,4,Decomposition of soybean grown under elevated concentrations of CO2 and O-3,A critical global climate change issue is how increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and ground-level O-3 will affect agricultural productivity. This includes effects on decomposition of residues left in the field and availability of mineral nutrients to subsequent crops. To address questions about decomposition processes| a 2-year experiment was conducted to determine the chemistry and decomposition rate of aboveground residues of soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) grown under reciprocal combinations of low and high concentrations of CO2 and O-3 in open-top field chambers. The CO2 treatments were ambient (370 mu mol mol(-1)) and elevated (714 mu mol mol(-1)) levels (daytime 12 h averages). Ozone treatments were charcoal-filtered air (21 nmol mol(-1)) and nonfiltered air plus 1.5 times ambient O-3 (74 nmol mol(-1)) 12 h day(-1). Elevated CO2 increased aboveground postharvest residue production by 28-56% while elevated O-3 suppressed it by 15-46%. In combination| inhibitory effects of added O-3 on biomass production were largely negated by elevated CO2. Plant residue chemistry was generally unaffected by elevated CO2| except for an increase in leaf residue lignin concentration. Leaf residues from the elevated O-3 treatments had lower concentrations of nonstructural carbohydrates| but higher N| fiber| and lignin levels. Chemical composition of petiole| stem| and pod husk residues was only marginally affected by the elevated gas treatments. Treatment effects on plant biomass production| however| influenced the content of chemical constituents on an areal basis. Elevated CO2 increased the mass per square meter of nonstructural carbohydrates| phenolics| N| cellulose| and lignin by 24-46%. Elevated O-3 decreased the mass per square meter of these constituents by 30-48%| while elevated CO2 largely ameliorated the added O-3 effect. Carbon mineralization rates of component residues from the elevated gas treatments were not significantly different from the control. However| N immobilization increased in soils containing petiole and stem residues from the elevated CO2| O-3| and combined gas treatments. Mass loss of decomposing leaf residue from the added O-3 and combined gas treatments was 48% less than the control treatment after 20 weeks| while differences in decomposition of petiole| stem| and husk residues among treatments were minor. Decreased decomposition of leaf residues was correlated with lower starch and higher lignin levels. However| leaf residues only comprised about 20% of the total residue biomass assayed so treatment effects on mass loss of total aboveground residues were relatively small. The primary influence of elevated atmospheric CO2 and O-3 concentrations on decomposition processes is apt to arise from effects on residue mass input| which is increased by elevated CO2 and suppressed by O-3. 6764,2005,5,4,Decrease trend of dust event frequency over the past 200 years recorded in the Malan ice core from the northern Tibetan Plateau,By analyses of the dust layers in the Malan ice core from the northern Tibetan Plateau| it was found that dirty ratio in this core might be a good proxy for dust event frequency. The variations in the dirty ratio displayed a decrease trend over the past 200 years| which implies that dust events became less frequent during the study period. The decrease trend in the variations in dust event frequency might be caused mostly by the natural processes| including increasing precipitation and weakening westerly which might be related with global warming. Furthermore| significant negative correlation was found between the dirty ratio and 45180 in the Malan ice core. This is highly important for studying the effect of atmospheric dust on climate change. 7197,2005,3,2,Deep-ocean| sediment-dwelling animals are sensitive to sequestered carbon dioxide,The burning of fossil fuel is producing the greenhouse gas CO2 at a rate that is causing global warming and threatens to change the global environment adversely. One proposed solution involves sequestering in the deep sea a substantial portion of the excess CO2 produced. Because large areas would be affected and this environment harbors one of the world's largest reservoirs of biodiversity| the approach is controversial. In particular| deep-sea diversity is found largely in the animals that live in the sediment| but the effects of sequestered CO2 on these organisms are not known. We therefore introduced &SIM; 60 1 of liquid CO2 onto the seafloor at 3250 m depth and sampled &SIM; 2 and &SIM; 40 m from the deposition site 30 d later. The pore water in the samples taken near the site was 0.75 pH unit more acidic (pH decreases when CO2 concentration increases) than that in samples taken farther away| Representative infauna had been killed in significantly greater numbers in the former than in the latter location. This demonstration that sequestered CO2 can adversely affect the deep-sea infauna brings CO2 sequestration in the deep sea into potential conflict with the preservation of deep-sea biodiversity. 6976,2005,5,3,Deep-sea temperature and circulation changes at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum,A rapid increase in greenhouse gas levels is thought to have fueled global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Foraminiferal magnesium/calcium ratios indicate that bottom waters warmed by 4 degrees to 5 degrees C| similar to tropical and subtropical surface ocean waters| implying no amplification of warming in high-latitude regions of deep-water formation under ice-free conditions. Intermediate waters warmed before the carbon isotope excursion| in association with downwelling in the North Pacific and reduced Southern Ocean convection| supporting changing circulation as the trigger for methane hydrate release. A switch to deep convection in the North Pacific at the PETM onset could have amplified and sustained warming. 6785,2005,4,3,Defining dangerous anthropogenic interference: The role of science| the limits of science,Defining "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" in the context of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) presents a complex challenge for those developing long-term climate policy. Natural science has a key role to play in quantifying vulnerabilities of elements of the Earth system and estimating the risks from a changing climate. But attempts to interpret Article 2 will inevitably draw on understanding from social science| psychology| law| and ethics. Here I consider the limits of science in defining climate "danger" by focusing on the potential disintegration of the major ice sheets as an example of an extreme impact. I show that considerations of timescale| uncertainty| and learning preclude a definition of danger drawn purely from natural science. Decisionmakers will be particularly challenged by one characteristic of global problems: answers to some scientific questions become less accurate over decadal timescales| meandering toward the wrong answer| a feature I call negative learning. I argue for a precautionary approach to Article 2 that would be based initially on current| limited scientific understanding of the future of the ice sheets. 7009,2005,3,4,Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia: History| rates| and consequences,Brazil's Amazon forest remained largely intact until the "modern" era of deforestation began with the inauguration of the Transamazon Highway in 1970. Amazonian deforestation rates have trended upward since 1991| with clearing proceeding at a variable but rapid pace. Although Amazonian forests are cut for various reasons| cattle ranching predominates. The large and medium-sized ranches account for about 70% of clearing activity. Profit from beef cattle is only one of the income sources that make deforestation profitable. Forest degradation results from logging| ground fires (facilitated by logging)| and the effects of fragmentation and edge formation. Degradation contributes to forest loss. The impacts of deforestation include loss of biodiversity| reduced water cycling (and rainfall)| and contributions to global warming. Strategies to slow deforestation include repression through licensing procedures| monitoring| and fines. The severity of penalties for deforestation needs to be sufficient to deter illegal clearing but not so great as to be unenforceable. Policy reform is also needed to address root causes of deforestation| including the role of clearing in establishing land claims. 6806,2005,3,3,Dehydrogenation of ethylbenzene with carbon dioxide as soft oxidant over supported vanadium-antimony oxide catalyst,This work presents that carbon dioxide| which is a main contributor to the global warming effect| could be utilized as a selective oxidant in the oxidative dehydrogenation of ethylbenzene. The dehydrogenation of ethylbenzene over alumina-supported vanadium-antimony oxide catalyst has been studied under different atmospheres such as inert nitrogen| steam| oxygen or carbon dioxide as diluent or oxidant. Among them| the addition of carbon dioxide gave the highest styrene yield (up to 82%) and styrene selectivity (up to 97%) along with stable activity. Carbon dioxide could play a beneficial role of a selective oxidant in the improvement of the catalytic behavior through the oxidative pathway. 6791,2005,2,4,Demographics of an ornate box turtle population experiencing minimal human-induced disturbances,Human-induced disturbances may threaten the viability of many turtle populations| including populations of North American box turtles. Evaluation of the potential impacts of these disturbances can be aided by long-term studies of populations subject to minimal human activity. In such a population of ornate box turtles (Terrapene ornata ornata) in western Nebraska| we examined survival rates and population growth rates from 1981-2000 based on mark-recapture data. The average annual apparent survival rate of adult males was 0.883 (SE = 0.021) and of adult females was 0.932 (SE = 0.014). Minimum winter temperature was the best of five climate variables as a predictor of adult survival. Survival rates were highest in years with low minimum winter temperatures| Suggesting that global warming pay result in declining survival. We estimated an average adult population growth rate ((lambda) over cap) of 1.006 (SE = 0.065)| with an estimated temporal process variance ((lambda) over cap (2)) of 0.029 (95% CI = 0.005-0.176). Stochastic simulations suggest that this mean and temporal process variance would result in a 58% probability of a population decrease over a 20-year period. This research provides evidence that| unless unknown density-dependent mechanisms are operating in the adult age class| significant human disturbances| such Is commercial harvest or turtle mortality on roads| represent a potential risk to box turtle populations. 1863,2005,3,4,Denitrification and N2O emission from forested and cultivated alluvial clay soil,Restored forested wetlands reduce N loads in surface discharge through plant uptake and denitrification. While removal of reactive N reduces impact on receiving waters| it is unclear whether enhanced denitrification also enhances emissions of the 'greenhouse' gas N2O| thus compromising the water-quality benefits of restoration. This Study compares denitrification rates and N2O:N-2 emission ratios from Sharkey clay soil in a mature bottomland forest to those from all adjacent cultivated site in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Potential denitrification of forested soil was 2.4 times of cultivated soil. Using intact soil cores| denitrification rates of forested soil were 5.2| 6.6 and 2.0 times those of cultivated soil at 70| 85 and 100% water-filled pore space (WFPS)| respectively. When NO3 was added| N2O emissions from forested soil were 2.2 times those of cultivated soil at 70% WFPS. At 85 and 100% WFPS| N2O emissions were not significantly different despite much greater denitrification rates in the forested soil because N2O:N-2 emission ratios declined more rapidly in forested soil as WFPS increased. These findings suggest that restoration of forested wetlands to reduce NO3 in surface discharge will not contribute significantly to the atmospheric burden of N2O. 7233,2005,3,3,Denitrification following land application of swine waste to bermudagrass pasture,Nitrogen (N) losses following land-applied animal wastes present an environmental and economical dilemma for producers. Gaseous N losses from pasture-land contribute to global warming| ozone depletion| acid rain| and inefficient plant N uptake. This study was designed to monitor nitrous oxide emissions following swine waste and commercial fertilizer treatments to bermudagrass (Cynedon dactylon [L.] pers) pastures. Denitrification rates were monitored on a biweekly basis for six 0.12-ha bermudagrass pastures for three consecutive growing seasons (1998-2000). Treatments consisted of three split applications of either swine effluent supplemented with ammonium nitrate (SW) or commercial fertilizer (CF). Peak denitrification rates were greatest in 1998| ranging from 0.6 to 1.7 mu g N2O-N m(-2) h(-1) for effluent-treated plots and 0.3-1.5 mu g N2O-N m(-2) h(-1) for commercially fertilized plots. Results from this study suggest denitrification is not a significant N loss pathway in swine waste-amended bermudagrass systems. 1797,2005,4,4,Derivation of quantitative management objectives for annual instream water temperatures in the Sabie River using a biological index,Adaptive management of river systems assumes uncertainty and makes provision for system variability. Inherent within this management approach is that perceived limits of 'acceptable' system variability are regarded not only as testable hypotheses| but also as playing a central role in maintaining biodiversity. While the Kruger National Park currently functions as a flagship conservation area in South Africa| projected increases in air temperatures as a consequence of global climate change present challenges in conserving this biodiversity inside the established land boundaries. Within the rivers of the Kruger National Park| a management goal of maintaining biodiversity requires a clearer understanding of system variability. One component of this is water temperature| an important water quality parameter defining the distribution patterns of aquatic organisms. In this study| Chiloglanis anoterus Crass (1960) (Pisces: Mochokidae) was selected as a biological indicator of changes in annual water temperatures within the Sabie River in the southern Kruger National Park. Relative abundances of C. anoterus were determined using standard electro-fishing surveys. The presence or absence of C. anoterus was linked to cumulative annual heat units using a logistic regression model| and a critical annual cumulative water temperature threshold estimated. A correlative relationship between this temperature threshold and a biological index using a C. anoterus condition factor provides river ecologists with a tool to assess ecologically significant warming trends in Sabie River water temperatures. A similar approach could be applied with relative ease to other Southern African river systems. Further testing of this hypothesis is suggested| as part of the adaptive management cycle. 7122,2005,3,3,Design and characterisation of an electrostatic precipitator for small heating appliances,Promoting the use of renewable sources of energy is part of the efforts being undertaken to tackle the problem of global warming due to the greenhouse effect. Generation of heat or energy by wood combustion takes advantage of a renewable and often locally available source of energy and can help to reduce the overall emissions of CO2. Particularly small wood-fired appliances| however| are significant sources of air pollution. In addition to CO2 VOC or NOx| high emissions of particulate matter are a major drawback of these appliances. The work presented here results from efforts to improve small heating appliances burning solid fuel. For application in small heating systems| a compact and inexpensive solution that still offers a significant reduction of particle emissions is required. In this paper| a specific design of electrostatic precipitator (ESP) is presented and its collection efficiency and electrical characteristics are evaluated. Different geometries and electrode set-ups have been considered with the aim of developing a system that can also be retrofitted to existing installations. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7132,2005,4,4,Destabilization of the thermohaline circulation by transient changes in the hydrological cycle,We reconsider the problem of the stability of the thermohaline circulation as described by a two-dimensional Boussinesq model with mixed boundary conditions. We determine how the stability properties of the system depend on the intensity of the hydrological cycle. We de. ne a two-dimensional parameters' space descriptive of the hydrology of the system and determine| by considering suitable quasi-static perturbations| a bounded region where multiple equilibria of the system are realized. We then focus on how the response of the system to finite-amplitude changes in the surface freshwater forcings depends on their rate of increase. We show that it is possible to de. ne a robust separation between slow and fast regimes of forcing. Such separation between slow and fast regimes is obtained by singling out an estimate of the critical rate of increase for the anomalous forcing. The critical rate of increase is of the same order of magnitude of the ratio between the typical intensity of the hydrological cycle and the advective time scale of the system. Basically| if the change of the forcing is faster than the estimated critical rate| the system responds similarly to the case of instantaneous changes of the same amplitude. Specularly| if the change of the forcing is slower than the critical rate| the behavior of the system resembles the response to quasi-static changes of the same amplitude. Furthermore| since the advective time scale is proportional to the square root of the vertical diffusivity| our analysis supports the conjecture that the efficiency of the vertical mixing might also be one of the key factors determining the response of the THC system to transient changes in the surface forcings. These results should be taken into account when engineering global warming scenario and paleoclimatic experiments with GCMs. 6881,2005,2,4,Detection time for plausible changes in annual precipitation| evapotranspiration| and streamflow in three Mississippi River sub-basins,We use diagnostic studies of off-line variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model simulations of terrestrial water budgets and 21st-century climate change simulations using the parallel climate model (PCM) to estimate the time required to detect predicted changes in annual precipitation (P)| evapotranspiration (E)| and discharge (Q) in three sub-basins of the Mississippi River Basin. Time series lengths on the order of 50-350 years are required to detect plausible P| E| and Q trends in the Missouri| Ohio| and Upper Mississippi River basins. Approximately 80-160| 50| and 140-350 years| respectively| are needed to detect the predicted P| E| and Q trends with a high degree of statistical confidence. These detection time estimates are based on conservative statistical criteria (alpha = 0.05 and beta = 0.10) associated with low probability of both detecting a trend when it is not occurring (Type I error) and not detecting a trend when it is occurring (Type II error). The long detection times suggest that global-warming-induced changes in annual basin-wide hydro-climatic variables that may already be occurring in the three basins probably cannot yet be detected at this level of confidence. Furthermore| changes for some variables that may occur within the 21st century might not be detectable for many decades or until the following century - this may or may not be the case for individual recording station data. The long detection times for streamflow result from comparatively low signal-to-noise ratios in the annual time series. Finally| initial estimates suggest that faster detection of acceleration in the hydrological cycle may be possible using seasonal time series of appropriate hydro-climatic variables| rather than annual time series. 1838,2005,2,4,Detriments to post-bleaching recovery of corals,Predicting the response of coral reefs to large-scale mortality induced by climate change will depend greatly on the factors that influence recovery after bleaching events. We experimentally transplanted hard corals from a shallow reef with highly variable seawater temperature ( 23 - 36 degrees C) to three unfished marine parks and three. shed reefs with variable coral predator abundance and benthic cover. The transplanted corals were fragmented colonies collected from a reef that was relatively undisturbed by the 1997 - 1998 warm-water temperature anomaly| one of the most extreme thermal events of the past century| and it was assumed that they would represent corals likely to succeed in the future temperature environment. We examined the effects of four taxa| two fragment sizes| an acclimation period| benthic cover components| predators and tourists on the survival of the coral fragments. We found the lowest survival of transplants occurred in the unfished marine parks and this could be attributed to predation and not tourist damage. The density of small coral recruits approximately 6 months after the spawning season was generally moderate ( similar to 40 - 60/m(2))| and not different on fished and unfished reefs. Coral recovery between 1998 and 2002 was variable ( 0 - 25%)| low ( mean of 6.5%)| and not different between fished and unfished reefs. There was high variability in coral mortality among the three unfished areas despite low variation in estimates of predator biomass| with the highest predation occurring in the Malindi MNP| a site with high coralline algal cover. Stepwise multiple regression analysis with 14 variables of coral predators and substratum showed that coralline algae was positively| and turf algae negatively associated with mortality of the transplants| with all other variables being statistically insignificant. This suggests that alternate food resources and predator choices are more important than predator biomass in determining coral survival. Nonetheless| large predatory fish in areas dominated by coralline algae may considerably retard recovery of eurythermal corals. This will not necessarily retard total hard coral recovery| as other more predator-tolerant taxa can recover. Based on the results| global climate change will not necessarily favor eurythermal over stenothermal coral taxa in remote or unfished reefs| where predation is a major cause of coral mortality. 7087,2005,4,4,Development of a multi-year climate prediction model,The available water resources in Southern Africa are rapidly approaching the limits of economic exploitation. The situation is compounded by claims that global warming will have a serious adverse effect on future water supplies. There was therefore an urgent need to characterise the numerical properties of the hydrometeorological processes in such a way that the effects of global warming| if any| could be evaluated and accommodated. Other than increases in both areal rainfall and open water surface evaporation| no other changes were detected| that could be attributed to climate change arising from human activities. Nor is there evidence to support the view that such changes are likely to occur within the normal planning horizon of the next 30 years. A climate prediction model was developed based on the statistically significant 21-year periodicity in the hydrometeorological processes| and its direct association with corresponding periodicity in solar activity. 6922,2005,4,4,Development of a system for simultaneous and continuous measurement of carbon dioxide| methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from croplands based on the automated closed chamber method,A system for simultaneous and continuous measurement of fluxes of three major greenhouse gases| carbon dioxide (CO2)| methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)| from croplands was developed based on the closed chamber method. Controlled by a computer| top-lids of the chambers placed in the field closed periodically| remained closed for about 30 min| and then opened again. During the closure of the chambers| the air in the chambers was circulated by air pumps| and part of the circulated air was injected to gas analyzers. CO2 concentration was monitored with an infra-red gas analyzer| and its increasing/decreasing rate during the 1-3-min period after the chamber closure was used for the flux calculation. Concentrations of CH4 and N2O were measured with two gas chromatographs 4 times at intervals of 8.5 min. The system was tested in lysimeter fields with Gray lowland soil under various conditions| including paddy rice cultivation| upland crop cultivation and also fallow condition. Both CH4 and N2O concentrations in the chambers increased linearly or remained almost constant during the 30-min period after the chamber closure. CO2 concentration in the chambers also increased (which indicates the predominance of respiratory CO2 emission by the crops and/or soil microorganisms) or decreased (which indicates the predominance of photosynthetic CO2 uptake by the crops) linearly during the 1-3-min period after the chamber closure. These results indicated that appropriate fluxes could be estimated for all the three gases based on the gas concentration measurements with adequate time intervals| and on the linear regression analyses. The system is expected to be effective for clarifying the comprehensive dynamics of greenhouse gases in| and for estimating the total net global warming potential of croplands. Furthermore| simultaneous measurement of the fluxes of multiple gases is also effective for analyzing the mutual relationships and mechanisms of the gas fluxes. Changes in environmental factors such as increase in air temperature or decrease in light intensity during the chamber closure (generally referred to as "chamber effect") should be taken into account as a cause of error in the flux data. 7179,2005,3,3,Development of compact C2F4 gas supply equipment and its application to etching of dielectrics in an environmental benign process,Compact C2F4 gas supply equipment| which controls the gas supply with sufficient accuracy by irradiation of a carbon dioxide laser (CO2) onto a solid source (PTFE) without using any fluorocarbon gas| has been developed to combat global warming. Although C2F4 gas has a very low Global Warming Potential (GWP < 1)| it is very unstable and thus considerably difficult to handle. This gas is used in the semiconductor manufacture process| where it is obtained from a conventional high-pressure cylinder. By changing the output of the laser| the amount Of C2F4 gas generated can be precisely controlled in this equipment while also ensuring safety. The gas is supplied to the VHF excited parallel plate plasma reactor through a gas shower head with Ar carrier gas and| in actual tests| this environmental benign technology achieved high etching performances for low-k SiOCH and SiO2 films. 7184,2005,3,4,Development of prototype micro fuel cells for mobile electronics,We have made great progress in developing a new micro fuel cell (mu-FC) technology that enables the use of 30% methanol fuel solution - the highest ever reported for passive systems - and the fabrication of a prototype power unit for mobile phones with the following specifications: a cradle-shaped interconnection for W-CDMA mobile phones| 18 ml of 30% methanol solution to recharge the internal Li-ion battery of the mobile phone to enable 150 minutes of continuous talking and 400 minutes of stand-by. In this study| our attention was focused on evaluating the environmental impact of newly developed mu-FCs to gather data| which is essential in developing environmentally friendly products. In this regard| we first evaluated the effect of greenhouse gasses such as CO2 exhaust during material productions cell manufacturing| distribution| use| and disposal of mu-FCs on global warming and ozone layer depletion. Then| we assessed the consequent impact on human health and the ecosystem as the society cost according to the LIME method. This evaluation revealed that the society cost of mu-FCs is only 5% that of LR6 (IEC) alkaline dry batteries for a 10 kWh energy supply if the same cartridge is used 10 times. 6936,2005,5,4,Did glacials start with global warming?,Correlation of paleoclimatic evidence with orbital changes shows that the build-up of polar ice accelerated when low obliquity coincided with perihelion in Northern Hemisphere winter. Under low obliquity the insolation was channeled to the tropics at the expense of both polar caps. As perihelion moved from winter solstice toward spring equinox| the solar beam in astronomic winter and spring became stronger than in summer and autumn. This orbital configuration under climate conditions like today would lead to warming of tropical oceans but cooling of the polar regions. The areally weighted global mean surface temperature| which is dominated by the low latitudes| would increase. Consequently| during the first millennia| the early glacial ice build-up was most likely accompanied by global warming. It was the associated increase of meridional insolation and temperature gradients| which were instrumental in the transition to a glacial. A significant part of the current global warming is due to the gradual temperature increase of the tropical oceans. As the changing orbital configuration today resembles that of the last interglacial/glacial transition| the warming is likely to have a natural 6765,2005,2,3,Differences in temperature| organic carbon and oxygen consumption among lowland streams,1. Temperature| organic carbon and oxygen consumption were measured over a year at 13 sites in four lowlands streams within the same region in North Zealand| Denmark with the objectives of determining: (i) spatial and seasonal differences between open streams| forest streams and streams with or without lakes| (ii) factors influencing the temperature dependence of oxygen consumption rate| (iii) consequences of higher temperature and organic content in lake outlets on oxygen consumption rate| and (iv) possible consequences of forecasted global warming on degradation of organic matter. 2. High concentrations of easily degradable dissolved (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) were found in open streams downstream of plankton-rich lakes| while high concentrations of recalcitrant DOC were found in a forest brook draining a forest swamp. Concentrations of predominantly recalcitrant POC and DOC were low in a groundwater-fed forest spring. Overall| DOC concentration was two to 18 times higher than POC concentrations. 3. Oxygen consumption rate at 20 degrees C was higher during summer than winter| higher in open than shaded streams and higher in lake outlets than inlets. Rate was closely related to concentrations of chlorophyll and POC but not to DOC. The ratio of oxygen consumption rate to total organic concentrations (DOC + POC)| serving as a measure of organic degradability| was highest downstream of lakes| intermediate in open streams and lowest in forest streams. 4. Temperature coefficients describing the exponential increase of oxygen consumption rate between 4 and 20 degrees C averaged 0.121 degrees C-1 (Q(10) of 3.35) in 70 measurements and showed no significant variations between seasons and stream sites or correlations with ambient temperature and organic content. 5. Oxygen consumption rate was enhanced downstream of lakes during summer because of higher temperature and| more significantly| greater concentrations of degradable organic carbon. Oxygen consumption rates were up to seven times higher in the stream with three impoundments than in a neighbouring unshaded stream and 21 times higher than in the groundwater-fed forest spring. 6. A regional climate model has calculated a dramatic 4-5 degrees C rise in air temperature over Denmark by 2070-2100. If this is realised| unshaded streams are estimated to become 2-3 degrees C warmer in summer and winter and 5-7 degrees C warmer in spring and| thereby| increase oxygen consumption rates at ambient temperature by 30-40% and 80-130%| respectively. Faster consumption of organic matter and dissolved oxygen downstream of point sources should increase the likelihood of oxygen stress of the stream biota and lead to the export of less organic matter but more mineralised nutrients to the coastal waters. 7204,2005,2,4,Different age and spatial structure of two spontaneous subpopulations of Taxus baccata as a result of various intensity of colonization process,The aim of the present work was a comparison of the age and spatial structure of two populations of Taxus baccata in the Kornik Arboretum| formed spontaneously under different initial conditions. The first of them (plot one) comes from at least 11| while the second (plot two) from only two| potential mother tress at a distance up to about 100 in. The influence of the local climate conditions on the seedlings was also analyzed. Age structure of the population formed from 11 mother trees was found to be typical for young| but developing populations of shade tolerant trees about 40 years after the first cohorts were founded. The youngest seedlings formed the most numerous age class| still without saplings. The class ranking next consisted of tree-like specimens of the highest age. Obviously| the population of the first plot was formed by only few cohorts of seeds| in period of about 20 years. Seedlings may have appeared every year| but most often nearly all of them died. The sub-population on the second plot| developed as offspring from only two close-by growing mother trees| was formed during much a longer period and is characterized by a different age structure. The oldest individuals are less numerous as those in subpopulation one. There is also a number of saplings| which are still joining the main stand; such saplings were not found in the other sub-population. The spatial structure of two sub-populations is also different. The first of them| which comes from several mother trees| is characterized as rather uniform| while the second which can be traced back to two mother trees| shows a clump distribution of tree-like yews. The climate parameter limiting the number of surviving seedlings in particular years appears to be a minimal temperature below -7.5 &DEG; C in November. Temperatures of winter and spring| as well as the drought/precipitation regime during the vegetation period do not restrict the survival rate of the seedlings. Obviously| the distribution of individuals of the ornithochoric species T baccata is strongly determined by the availability of mother trees in a distance suitable to be bridged by birds. Long distances limit seed supply heavily and retard and prolong the period of colonization. As a consequence| dispersal distances influence strongly age and spatial structure of cohorts founded from isolated (groups of) mother trees. (C) 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 7059,2005,2,4,Direct and indirect effects of experimental warming on ecosystem carbon processes in a tallgrass prairie,This study was conducted to examine direct and indirect impacts of global warming on carbon processes in a tallgrass prairie in the U.S. Great Plains. Infrared radiators were used to simulate global warming| and clipping was used to mimic hay mowing. Experimental warming caused significant increases in green biomass in spring and autumn and total biomass in summer on most of the measuring dates. Green aboveground biomass showed positive linear correlations with soil temperature in spring and autumn whereas total aboveground biomass in summer was negatively correlated with soil temperature. Experimental warming also affected aboveground biomass indirectly by extending the length of growing season and changing soil nitrogen process. Elevated temperature tended to increase net nitrogen mineralization in the first year but decrease it in the second year| which could be attributable to stimulated plant growth and belowground carbon allocation and consequently enhanced microbial nitrogen immobilization. Warming-induced changes in soil respiration were proportional to those of total aboveground biomass. Clipping significantly reduced aboveground biomass and increased root biomass| but had no effect on net nitrogen mineralization and annual mean soil respiration. The proportional changes in soil respiration to those of aboveground biomass indicate warming-stimulated ecosystem carbon uptake could be weakened by increased carbon release through soil respiration. 1791,2005,5,4,Direct constraints on Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet grounding events between 5.12 and 7.94 Ma,How has the Antarctic Ice Sheet responded to or influenced global climate change? This simple question has been difficult to address because the long-term records of the ice sheet's fluctuations are poorly constrained with geologic data from Antarctica. Thus studies to date have not convincingly established how specific Antarctic Ice Sheet events correlate with climatic| eustatic| or other phenomena known from low-latitude and deep-sea records. This study focused on documenting the direct record of ice sheet advance and retreat to the Antarctic Peninsula's shelf edge. On the peninsula's outer shelf| seismic reflectors interpreted to be subglacial unconformities were correlated with published results from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 178. Lithologic and chronologic control at two drill sites provided ground truth for the seismic interpretation and the timing of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet grounding events. This synthesis showed that grounded ice advanced to the shelf edge on at least 12 occasions between 5.12 and 7.94 Ma. 7141,2005,3,3,Direct N2O emissions from rice paddy fields: Summary of available data,[1] Rice cultivation is an important anthropogenic source of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane. We compiled and analyzed data on N2O emissions from rice fields (113 measurements from 17 sites) reported in peer-reviewed journals. Mean N2O emission +/- standard deviation and mean fertilizer-induced emission factor during the rice-cropping season were| respectively| 341 +/- 474 g N ha(-1) season(-1) and 0.22 +/- 0.24% for fertilized fields continuously flooded| 993 +/- 1075 g N ha(-1) season(-1) and 0.37 +/- 0.35% for fertilized fields with midseason drainage| and 667 +/- 885 g N ha(-1) season(-1) and 0.31 +/- 0.31% for all water regimes. The estimated whole-year background emission was 1820 g N ha(-1) yr(-1). A large uncertainty remains| especially for background emission because of limited data availability. Although midseason drainage generally reduces CH4 and increases N2O emissions| it may be an effective option for mitigating the net global warming potential of rice fields. 1916,2005,4,5,Discrepancy of global climate change over continents and oceans,The current warming of the climate attracts considerable interest of many specialists working in the field of Earth sciences. Evidence supporting this global phenomenon stored to date is more than sufficient. Therefore| one of the most pressing issues today is to carry out a comprehensive analysis of observations made thus far on the state of the environment in the context of climate changes. In this connection| problems are posed on the causes or sources of the phenomenon addressed| the relationships between natural and anthropogenic factors| and the trends in the further evolution of planetary and regional climatic systems. The World Conference on Climate Changes recently held in moscow was devoted to precisely these problems. In the present communication| we have made yet another attempt to reveal specific features of modern climate dynamics| particularly the secular variation of mean temperatures in the lower atmosphere relative to global circulation. Based on analysis of changes in the field of surface air temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere| we suggest that global low-frequency disturbances observed in the atmosphere could be due to the contribution of the World Ocean in a large-scale redistribution of heat fluxes in the ocean-atmosphere-land climatic system.
7044,2005,3,4,Dissolution behavior and hydrate effect on CO2 ocean sequestration,CO2 ocean sequestration is one of the promising options to reduce CO2 concentration in the atmosphere because the ocean has vast capacity for CO2 absorption. Therefore| in the present investigation| calculations for solubility and dissolution behavior of liquid CO2 droplets released at 1000 m and 1500 m deep in the ocean from a moving ship and a fixed pipeline have been carried out in order to estimate the CO2 dissolution characteristics in the ocean. The results show liquid CO2 becomes CO2 bubble at around 500 m in depth| and the solubility of seawater is about 5% less than of pure water. Also| it is shown that the injection of liquid CO2 from a moving ship is a more effective method for dissolution than from a fixed pipeline| and the presence of hydrate on liquid CO2 acts as a resistant layer in dissolving liquid CO2. 6842,2005,3,4,Distance-to-target weighting in life cycle impact assessment based on Chinese environmental policy for the period 1995-2005,Background and Objectives. Values in the known weighting methods in Life Cycle Assessment are mostly founded by the societal systems of developed countries. What source of weights and which weighting methods are reliable for a big developing country like China? The purpose of this paper is to find a possible weighting method and available data that will work well for LCA practices conducted in China. Since government policies and decisions play a leading role in the process of environmental protection in developing countries| the weights derived from political statements may be a Consensus by representatives of the public. Methods. 'Distance-to-political target' principle is used ill this paper to derive weights of five problem-oriented impact categories. The critical policy targets are deduced from the environmental policies issued in the period of the Ninth Five-year (1996-2000) and the Tenth Five-year (2001-2005) Plan for the Development of National Economy and Society of China. Policy targets oil two five-year periods are presented and analyzed. Weights are determined by the quotient between the reference levels and target levels of a certain impact category. Results and Discussion. Since the Tenth Five-year Plan put forward the overall objective to reduce the level of regional pollution by 2005| the weights for All| EP and POCP for 2000-2005 are more than 1. By comparison between the Ninth Five-year and Tenth Five-year period| the results show that the weights obtained in this paper effectively represent Chinese political environmental priorities in different periods. For the weights derived from China's political targets for the overall period 1995-2005| the rank order of relative importance is ODP>AP>POCP>EP>GWP. They are recommended to the potential users for the broader disparity among the five categories. By comparison with the weights presented by the widespread EDIP method| the result shows that there's a big difference in the relative importance of ozone depletion and global warming. Conclusion. The weighting factors and rank order of impact categories determined in this Study represent the characteristics of the big developing Country. The derived weighting set can be helpful to LCA practices of products within the industrial systems of China. 6872,2005,4,3,Distribution and inventory of anthropogenic CO(2) in the Southern Ocean: Comparison of three data-based methods,The Southern Ocean is thought to play an important role in the context of global warming and anthropogenic emissions of CO(2) due to its high sensitivity to both climate change and changes in the carbon cycle. Assessing the penetration of anthropogenic CO(2) (C(ant)) into the Southern Ocean is therefore highly relevant to reduce the uncertainties attached to both the present knowledge of anthropogenic carbon inventories and predictions made by current ocean carbon models. This study compares different data-based approaches for estimating the distribution of C(ant) in the ocean: a recently developed method based on the composite Tracer Combining Oxygen| Inorganic Carbon| and Total Alkalinity (TrOCA) and the "historical'' back-calculation methods (the so-called Delta C* and preformed dissolved inorganic carbon methods). Note that the back-calculation technique requires special care when used in the Southern Ocean| where surface oxygen can significantly deviate from equilibrium with the atmosphere. All three methods were applied to data collected at the Indian-Atlantic boundary (WOCE line I6)| where significant transient tracer concentrations were observed in deep and bottom waters. North of 50 degrees S| distribution and inventories of C(ant) are coherent with previous data-based and model estimates| but we found larger storage of C(ant) south of 50 degrees S as compared to the midlatitude region. In that| our results disagree with most previous estimates and suggest that the global inventory of anthropogenic CO(2) in the Southern Ocean could be much larger than what is currently believed. 7046,2005,2,4,Diversity and assemblage structure of phytophagous Hemiptera along a latitudinal gradient: predicting the potential impacts of climate change,Aims The aims were (1) to assess the species richness and structure of phytophagous Hemiptera communities along a latitudinal gradient| (2) to identify the importance of rare species in structuring these patterns| and (3) to hypothesize about how phytophagous Hemiptera communities may respond to future climate change. Location East coast of Australia. Methods Four latitudes within the 1150 km coastal distribution of Acacia falcata were selected. The insect assemblage on the host plant Acacia falcata was sampled seasonally over two years. Congeneric plant species were also sampled at the sites. Results Ninety-eight species of phytophagous Hemiptera were collected from A. falcata. Total species richness was significantly lower at the most temperate latitude compared to the three more tropical latitudes. We classified species into four climate change response groups depending on their latitudinal range and apparent host specificity. Pairwise comparisons between groups showed that the cosmopolitan| generalist feeders and specialists had a similar community structure to each other| but the climate generalists had a significantly different structure. Fifty-seven species were identified as rare. Most of these rare species were phloem hoppers and their removal from the dataset led to changes in the proportional representation of all guilds in two groups: the specialist and generalist feeders. Main conclusions We found no directional increase in phytophagous Hemiptera species richness. This indicates that| at least in the short term| species richness patterns of these communities may be similar to that found today. As the climate continues to change| however| we might expect some increases in species richness at the more temperate latitudes as species migrate in response to shifting climate zones. In the longer term| more substantial changes in community composition will be expected because the rare species| which comprise a large fraction of these communities| will be vulnerable to both direct climatic changes| and indirect effects via changes to their host's distribution. 7221,2005,2,4,Do changes in climate patterns in wintering areas affect the timing of the spring arrival of trans-Saharan migrant birds?,The life cycles of plants and animals are changing around the world in line with the predictions originated from hypotheses concerning the impact of global warming and climate change on biological systems. Commonly| the search for ecological mechanisms behind the observed changes in bird phenology has focused on the analysis of climatic patterns from the species breeding grounds. However| the ecology of bird migration suggests that the spring arrival of long-distance migrants (such as trans-Saharan birds) is more likely to be influenced by climate conditions in wintering areas given their direct impact on the onset of migration and its progression. We tested this hypothesis by analysing the first arrival dates (FADs) of six trans-Saharan migrants (cuckoo Cuculus canorus| swift Apus apus| hoopoe Upupa epops| swallow Hirundo rustica| house martin Delichon urbica and nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos)| in a western Mediterranean area since from 1952 to 2003. By means of multiple regression analyses| FADs were analysed in relation to the monthly temperature and precipitation patterns of five African climatic regions south of the Sahara where species are thought to overwinter and from the European site from where FADs were collected. We obtained significant models for five species explaining 9-41% of the variation in FADs. The interpretation of the models suggests that: (1) The climate in wintering quarters| especially the precipitation| has a stronger influence on FADs than that in the species' potential European breeding grounds. (2) The accumulative effects of climate patterns prior to migration onset may be of considerable importance since those climate variables that served to summarize climate patterns 12 months prior to the onset of migration were selected by final models. (3) Temperature and precipitation in African regions are likely to affect departure decision in the species studied through their indirect effects on food availability and the build-up of reserves for migration. Our results concerning the factors that affect the arrival times of trans-Saharan migrants indicate that the effects of climate change are more complex than previously suggested| and that these effects might have an interacting impact on species ecology| for example by reversing ecological pressures during species' life cycles. 1825,2005,2,4,Does inland aquatic biodiversity have a future in Asian developing countries?,Inland aquatic ecosystems and their biodiversity in Asia represent a wide spectrum along a complex continuum of interacting ecological| economic| socio-cultural and political gradients all of which determine their present and future. Whereas the diversity of biophysical environments ensures a rich inland aquatic biodiversity| their present status has been greatly influenced by human societies that have depended on them for millennia. Besides high population densities and developmental pressures| socio-cultural factors| economic considerations and various policies concerning land and water resources are major factors responsible for the degradation of habitats and loss of biodiversity. The looming global climate change may only worsen the situation unless remedial measures are taken on a large scale and urgently. The future of aquatic biodiversity in Asian countries will depend upon a radical change in national policies on water| and upon research that can support the development of appropriate policies. 7188,2005,2,4,Dramatic decline of the threatened Ili pika Ochotona iliensis (Lagomorpha : Ochotonidae) in Xinjiang| China,The Vulnerable Ili pika Ochotona iliensis (Lagomorpha: Ochotoniclae) is a poorly known mammal species that inhabits a restricted geographic range in the Tian Shan Mountains| Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region| China. It was discovered in 1983| described in 1986| and subsequently investigated over the following decade. As no studies were conducted on this pika during the next 10 years| a comprehensive census was undertaken in the summers of 2002 and 2003| including all sites where it had previously been observed. Evidence of the Ili pika was found at only 6 of 14 sites censused| and was extinct in two of six regions| including the type and paratype localities (Jilimalale Mountain). Ili pika populations appear to have declined in three of six regions| and in only one region did the population appear to be comparable to a decade earlier. Like all rock-dwelling pikas| the Ili pika has a low population density and rate of reproduction. Additionally| populations on its preferred habitat of cliff faces are highly fragmented. Increased temperatures| possibly due to global warming| and increased grazing pressure may have interacted with the normal population dynamics of the Ili pika to contribute to its recent dramatic decline. We recommend that the Ili pika's Red List status be changed from Vulnerable to Endangered. 1813,2005,2,4,Drier summers cancel out the CO2 uptake enhancement induced by warmer springs,An increase in photosynthetic activity of the northern hemisphere terrestrial vegetation| as derived from satellite observations| has been reported in previous studies. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle of the annually detrended atmospheric CO2 in the northern hemisphere (an indicator of biospheric activity) also increased during that period. We found| by analyzing the annually detrended CO2 record by season| that early summer (June) CO2 concentrations indeed decreased from 1985 to 1991| and they have continued to decrease from 1994 up to 2002. This decrease indicates accelerating springtime net CO2 uptake. However| the CO2 minimum concentration in late summer (an indicator of net growing-season uptake) showed no positive trend since 1994| indicating that lower net CO2 uptake during summer cancelled out the enhanced uptake during spring. Using a recent satellite normalized difference vegetation index data set and climate data| we show that this lower summer uptake is probably the result of hotter and drier summers in both mid and high latitudes| demonstrating that a warming climate does not necessarily lead to higher CO2 growing-season uptake| even in high-latitude ecosystems that are considered to be temperature limited. 1817,2005,4,4,Drought| tree rings| and reservoir design,Droughts constitute one of the most important factors affecting the design and operation of water resources infrastructure. Hydrologists ascertain their duration| severity| and pattern of recurrence from instrumental records of precipitation or streamflow. Under suitable conditions| and with proper analysis| tree rings obtained from long living| climate sensitive species of trees can extend instrumental records of streamflow and precipitation over periods spanning several centuries. Those tree-ring "reconstructions" provide a valuable insight about climate variability and drought occurrence in the Holocene| and yield long term hydrological data useful in the design of water infrastructure. This work presents a derivation of drought risk based on a renewal model of drought recurrence| a brief review of the basic theory of tree-ring reconstructions| and a stochastic model for optimizing the design of water supply reservoirs. Examples illustrate the methodology developed in this work and the supporting role that tree-ring reconstructed streamflow can play in characterizing hydrologic variability. 1841,2005,2,4,Dynamic changes of anti-oxidative enzymes of 10 wheat genotypes at soil water deficits,Drought is a world-spread problem seriously influencing crop production and quality| the loss of which is the total for other natural disasters| with increasing global climate change making the situation more serious. Wheat is the staple food for more than 35% of world population| so wheat anti-drought physiology study is of importance to wheat production and biological breeding for the sake of coping with abiotic and biotic conditions. Much research is involved in this hot topic| but the pace of progress is not so large because of drought resistance being a multiple-gene-control quantitative character and wheat genome being larger (16|000 Mb). On the other hand| stress adaptive mechanisms are quite different| with stress degree| different growth and developmental stages| time course| materials and experimental plots| thus increasing the complexity of the issue in question. Additionally| a little study is related to the whole life circle of wheat| which cannot provide a comprehensive understanding of its anti-drought machinery. We selected 10 kinds of wheat genotypes as materials| which have potential to be applied in practice| and measured change of relative physiological indices through wheat whole growing developmental circle (i.e. seedling| tillage and maturing). Here| we reported the dynamic anti-oxidative results of whole stage (i.e. seedling| tillage and maturing) in terms of activities of POD| SOD| CAT of 10 wheat genotypes as follows: (1) 10 wheat genotypes can be grouped into three kinds (A| B and C| respectively) according to their changing trend of the measured indices; (2) A group performed better resistance drought under the condition of treatment level 1| whose activities of anti-oxidative enzymes (POD| SOD| CAT) were higher; (3) B group exhibited stronger anti-drought under treatment level 2| whose activities of anti-oxidative enzymes were higher; (4) C group expressed anti-drought to some extent under treatment level 3| whose activities of anti-oxidative enzymes were stronger| MDA lower; (5) these results demonstrated that different wheat genotypes have different physiological mechanisms to adapt themselves to changing drought stress| whose molecular basis is discrete gene expression profiling (transcriptom); (6) our results also showed that the concept and method accepted and adopted by most researchers that 75% FC is a proper supply for higher plants - was doubted because this level could not reflect the true suitable level of different wheat genotypes; (7) our research can provide insights into physiological mechanisms of crop anti-drought and direct practical materials for wheat anti-drought breeding; (8) POD| SOD and CAT activities of different wheat genotypes had quite different changing trend at different stages and under different soil water stress conditions| which was linked with their origin of cultivation and individual soil water stress threshold; (9) our primary results also firstly displayed that the changing trend for wheat adapting to environmental stress during life circle was an S-shaped curve| which is| by chance| consistent with Plant Growth Grand Periodicity Curve. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1772,2005,2,4,Earlier winter wheat heading dates and warmer spring in the US Great Plains,Phenological change of plants is an indication of local and regional climate change| independent of the instrumentation records and associated bias/error. Although some phenological changes have been identified for native and perennial species and used to infer climate change in various regions of the world| little has been known for changes in agricultural plants/crops. In this study| heading or flowering dates of winter wheat cultivar Kharkof are examined from 70 years of data at six locations in the U.S. Great Plains. Results indicate a consistent trend of earlier heading or flowering dates across all sites| but rates of the trend differ (from 0.8 to 1.8 days per 10-year). Because the heading or flowering date is governed primarily by temperatures| the earlier heading or flowering dates indicate warming temperatures in the spring. Further examinations reveal increase in spring daily minimum temperatures. Findings of this study add a diverse species to the plant community for detecting the "fingerprint" of regional and global climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6910,2005,5,3,Early to Middle Jurassic vegetation and climatic events in the Qaidam Basin| northwest China,Jurassic deposits are well exposed in the Qaidarn Basin| Qinghai Province| northwest China| and are regarded as one of the most completely developed Early-Middle Jurassic plant-bearing sequences in northern China. The Early to Middle Jurassic palynoflora in this basin shows a high diversity of spores and pollen grains| which are characterized by four palynological assemblage zones corresponding to the Pliensbachian| Toarcian| Aalenian-Bajocian and Bathonian in age. Vegetation reconstruction demonstrates four vegetation types: upland coniferous forest in the Pliensbachian| coastal cheirolepidiacean forest in the Toarcian| lowland fern forest in the Aalenian-Bajocian and a mixed forest in the Bathonian. Nearest living relative analysis of the major plant groups shows that the Early to Middle Jurassic vegetation in the Qaidam Basin not only consists of plants with tropical-subtropical climate requirements| but also those indicating temperate climatic conditions. In addition| bryophytes and fungi as well as Cheirolepidiaceae| which are generally considered to indicate warmer and/or drier conditions| are also documented in the palynofloras. It is suggested that a temperate to subtropical climate generally prevailed during the Early to Middle Jurassic in this basin. However| the vegetation features and the sedimentary data signify that an overall humid to semi-bumid phase was punctuated by warmer and locally dry and/or and episodes. The two higher temperature and aridity events occurred in the Toarcian and Bathonian-Callovian periods in the Qaidam Basin. These climatic events can be infer-red by increase of relative abundance of Classopollis pollen| some tropical-subtropical fern spores| and the occurrences of variegated| red beds and evaporite rocks. These events may either be associated in some way with a transient global warming phenomenon due to an enhanced greenhouse effect| or be linked with intensification of a potential monsoonal circulation. Such events finally caused a weakening and even arrested coal-accumulation in the Qaidam Basin during the Toarcian and the Bathonian-Callovian intervals. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6988,2005,2,2,Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications,Our climate model| driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols| among other forcings| calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 +/- 0.15 watts per square meter more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. Implications include(i) the expectation of additional global warming of about 0.60 degrees C without further change of atmospheric composition; (ii) the confirmation of the climate system's tag in responding to forcings| implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change; and (iii) the likelihood of acceleration of ice sheet disintegration and sea level rise. 6996,2005,2,4,Ecological analysis of benthic ostracods in the northern Japan Sea| based on water properties of modem habitats and late Cenozoic fossil records,The ecology of ostracods in the northern Japan Sea is well documented. These ostracods can be grouped in two assemblages: (1) the Tsushima Warm Current Surface Water Assemblage (TWSA| northern)| which lives in an environment where summer temperatures reach up to about 20 degrees C| winter temperatures up to about 5 degrees C. Several species in this assemblage| e.g.| Loxoconcha optima and Pontocythere subjaponica tolerate seasonally low temperatures| and lived in the region since the early Pleistocene; (2) the Japan Sea Intermediate Proper Water Assemblage (JSI-PA)| which lives at greater depths (lower shelf to upper slope). This assemblage lives under stable conditions| with a small annual range in temperature (0-5 degrees C). The assemblage has a relatively low diversity| contains species such as Acanthocythereis dunelmensis and Robertsonites spp.| and has been present in the area since the Pliocene. These data indicate that the presently living species either tolerate seasonally low temperatures (TWSA| northern) or tolerate stable| but very low temperatures (near 0 degrees C)| and therefore| they could survive the Pleistocene environmental fluctuations in the Japan Sea caused by glacio-eustatic changes in sea level. Our data document the survival of ostracod species during past climate change| and thus can be used to speculate on the effect of possible future climate change on the faunas. We predict that some of the cryophilic species in the Japan Sea cannot be expected to survive global warming for more than 2 centuries. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6813,2005,4,4,Economic and environmental analysis of sustainable farming practices - a Bavarian case study,Within the Research Network on Agro-ecosystems Munich (Forschungsverbund Agrarokosysteme Munchen| FAM) strategies to approach optimal land use have been investigated since 1990 in terms of minimization of environmental impacts and maximization of profit from agricultural lands. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the interactions of the economic and ecological demands on agricultural land use with model calculations for the integrated farm section of the research station of the Research Network| Klostergut Scheyern in Bavaria| Germany| with a whole farm modeling approach. For this purpose the model system MODAM was used. MODAM simulates agricultural land use at farm level| calculates the economic returns and environmental impacts and runs farm optimizations with a linear programming tool. The integration of agri-environmental indicators in the model framework enables a multi-criteria optimization and the calculation of trade-offs. Optimization runs for the experimental farm show the complex interactions which occur when the farm considers environmental concerns in the objective function. Trade offs and abatement cost curves illustrate the relationship between agri-environmental indicators and economic returns of the farm. Here| soil erosion| nitrogen balance| global warming potential and gross energy input were implemented as agri-environmental indicators in MODAM. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1846,2005,3,4,Economic reform| energy| and development: the case of Mexican manufacturing,Given increasing concern over global climate change and national security there is a burgeoning interest in examining the relationship between economic growth and energy use in developed and developing countries. More specifically| decoupling energy use per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) has fast come to be seen as in the interests of national economies and the world as a whole. Recent attention has been paid to the dramatic decreases in the energy intensity of the Chinese economy| which fell by 55% between 1975 and 1995. Do other developing economies follow similar trajectories? This paper examines the energy intensity of the Mexican economy for the period 1988-1998. Although the long-term trend in Mexican energy intensity is rising| the energy intensity of the Mexican economy began to decline in 1988. This paper explores the factors that have contributed to this reduction. Diminishing Mexican energy use per unit of GDP has been driven by significant decreases in industrial energy intensity. We show that these changes have resulted from changes in the composition of Mexican industrial structure and technological change. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1840,2005,5,4,Ecosystem and paleohydrological response to Quaternary climate change in the Bonneville Basin| Utah,We report the results of a detailed paleoecological study of the Bonneville basin covering the last similar to 280|000 yr. Our study used fossil ostracodes and a sedimentological record obtained from the August 2000 GLAD800 drilling operation at Great Salt Lake. We analyzed 125 samples| taken at similar to 1 in intervals from Site 4 (GSL00-4)| for ostracodes and other paleoecologic and sedimentologic indicators of environmental change. Multivariate analyses applied to the ostracode data and qualitative analyses of fossil and sedimentological data indicate an alternation between three major environments at the core site over the cored interval: (1) shallow saline or hypersaline lakes; (2) salt or freshwater marshes;| and (3) occasional deep freshwater lakes. These environmental changes are consistent with shoreline studies of regional lake level fluctuations| but provide considerable new detail on both the timing and environmental conditions associated with the various lake phases. Our age model (using C-14| U- series| tephra and biostratigraphic chronologies) allowed us to associate the core's record of regional paleohydrology with the marine oxygen isotope stages of global climate change. The core contains continuous records for the last four glacial/interglacial sequences. Salt/freshwater marshes were common during the interglacials and deep freshwater conditions correspond with maximum global ice volume in OIS 2| and before a maximum in global ice during OIS 6. Immediately following deep lake phases| crashes in lake level from rapid desiccation resulted in the deposition of thick evaporite units. Our study suggests that the climate of the Great Salt Lake catchment appears to have been drier during OIS 6 than during OIS 2. We compare our record of environmental change during OIS 6 glaciation with other records from the western United States and find that the overall pattern of climate was similar throughout the West| but differences in the timing of climate change (i.e. when a region became drier or moister) are common. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7157,2005,3,4,Effect of changing groundwater levels caused by land-use changes on greenhouse gas fluxes from tropical peat lands,Monthly measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2)| methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes in peat soils were carried out and compared with groundwater level over a year at four sites (drained forest| upland cassava| upland and lowland paddy fields) located in Jambi province| Indonesia. Fluxes from swamp forest soils were also measured once per year as the native state of this investigated area. Land-use change from drained forest to lowland paddy field significantly decreased the CO2 (from 266 to 30 mg C m(-2) h(-1)) and N2O fluxes (from 25.4 to 3.8 mu g N m(-2) h(-1))| but increased the CH4 flux (from 0.1 to 4.2 mg C m(-2) h(-1)) in the soils. Change from drained forest to cassava field significantly increased N2O flux (from 25.4 to 62.2 mu g N m(-2) h(-1))| but had no significant influence on CO2 (from 266 to 200 mg C m(-2) h(-1)) and CH4 fluxes (from 0.1 to 0.3 mg C m(-2) h(-1)) in the soils. Averaged CO2 fluxes in the swamp forests (94 mg C m(-2) h(-1)) were estimated to be one-third of that in the drained forest. Groundwater levels of drained forest and upland crop fields had been lowered by drainage ditches while swamp forest and lowland paddy field were flooded| although groundwater levels were also affected by precipitation. Groundwater levels were negatively related to CO2 flux but positively related to CH4 flux at all investigation sites. The peak of the N2O flux was observed at -20 cm of groundwater level. Lowering the groundwater level by 10 cm from the soil surface resulted in a 50% increase in CO2 emission (from 109.1 to 162.4 mg C m(-2) h(-1)) and a 25% decrease in CH4 emission (from 0.440 to 0.325 mg C m(-2) h(-1)) in this study. These results suggest that lowering of groundwater level by the drainage ditches in the peat lands contributes to global warming and devastation of fields. Swamp forest was probably the best land-use management in peat lands to suppress the carbon loss and greenhouse gas emission. Lowland paddy field was a better agricultural system in the peat lands in terms of C sequestration and greenhouse gas emission. Carbon loss from lowland paddy field was one-eighth of that of the other upland crop systems| although the Global Warming Potential was almost the same level as that of the other upland crop systems because of CH4 emission through rice plants. 7173,2005,4,3,Effect of Sasa invasion on global warming potential in Sphagnum dominated poor fen in Bibai,Greenhouse gas fluxes in a wettand ecosystem may be dramatically modified by human activities or vegetation change. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of Sasa invasion on Global Warming Potential (GWP) in Sphagnum-dominated poor fen at Bibai| central Hokkaido| Japan. Fluxes Of CO2| CH4| and N2O at Sphagnum-dominated site (Sp) and Sasa invasion site (Sa) were measured by a closed chamber method| using a rectangular transparent acryl chamber| 30 cm x 30 cm x 60 cm (length x width x height)| to cover whole plant bodies during the measurement. CO2 flux measured by this method gives an estimate of the net ecosystem exchange (NEE)| also known as net CO2 exchange. Respiration rate was measured by using a shaded chamber. GWP was calculated using a 100-year time horizon recommended by IPCC (factors of 21 for CH4 and 310 for N2O). NEE was significantly higher (p < 0.05) at Sa (223.8 g C m(-2) y(-1)) than at Sp (5.8 g C m(-2) y-1). CH4 emission was higher at Sp (13.2 g C m(-2) y(-1)) than at Sa (6.6 g C m(-2) y(-1))| although the difference between the two sites is not significant. The contribution of CH4 emission during the snow period (from snow cover to snow melting) to the total annual CH4 emission accounted for 12% at Sp and 10% at Sa. N2O emissions were 0.032 and 0.005 g N m(-2) y(-1) at Sp and Sa| respectively. The estimated GWP was significantly higher (p < 0.05) at Sa (1009 9 CO2 m(-2) y(-1)) than at Sp (408 9 CO2 m(-2) y(-1)) and the contribution of CO2 emission to GWP was greater at Sa (81%) than at Sp (5%). Thus| we conclude that Saso invasion in Sphagnum-dominated poor fen contributes to global warming due to increased CO2 emission. 7037,2005,2,4,Effect of temperature on the development and reproduction of the maize orange leafhopper Cicadulina bipunctata (Melichar) (Homoptera : Cicadellidae),Cicadulina bipunctata (Melichar) (Homoptera: Cicadellidae) is a pest of the second planting of forage maize in central Kyushu| Japan. The effect of temperature on the development and reproduction of C. bipunctata was examined in laboratory experiments. The survivorship of eggs and nymphs was the highest at 25.3 degrees C. The developmental periods of eggs and nymphs were significantly shortened as the temperature was increased up to 34.0 degrees C. The developmental zero (T-0) was estimated at 14.0 degrees C for eggs and female nymphs| 14.2 degrees C for male nymphs| and 15.9 degrees C for preoviposition period. A thermal constant (K) of 118.1| 182.7| 176.9| and 39.5 degree-days was estimated as the effective temperature sums for the development of the eggs| female nymphs| male nymphs| and preoviposition period| respectively. Adult longevity and fecundity were higher than those of other rice-associated leafhoppers| while net reproductive rate (R-0) and intrinsic rate of natural increase (r(m)) were lower than those of other rice-associated leafhoppers. An increase of 1.29 and 1.43 generations per year following global warming was estimated for C. bipunctata by 2100| relative to 1990| in Kumamoto and Miyazaki| Japan| respectively. Thus| C. bipunctata has the potential to become a serious pest of cereal crops other than the second planting of forage maize. 1883,2005,2,4,Effect of temperature| elevated carbon dioxide| and drought during seed development on the isoflavone content of dwarf soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] grown in controlled environments,The effects of elevated temperature| carbon dioxide| and water stress on the isoflavone content of seed from a dwarf soybean line [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] were determined| using controlled environment chambers. Increasing the temperature from 18 degreesC during seed development to 23 degreesC decreased total isoflavone content by about 65%. A further 5 degreesC increase to 28 degreesC decreased the total isoflavone content by about 90%. Combining treatments at elevated temperature with elevated CO2 (700 ppm) and water stress to determine the possible consequences of global climate change on soybean seed isoflavone content indicated that elevated CO2 at elevated temperatures could partially reverse the effects of temperature on soybean seed isoflavone content. The addition of drought stress to plants grown at 23 degreesC and elevated CO2 returned the total isoflavone levels to the control values obtained at 18 degreesC and 400 ppm CO2. The promotive effects of drought and elevated CO2 at 23 degreesC on the 6"-O-malonygenistin and genistin levels were additive. The individual isoflavones often had different responses to the various growth conditions during seed maturation| modifying the proportions of the principal isoflavones. Therefore| subtle changes in certain environmental factors may change the isoflavone content of commercially grown soybean| altering the nutritional values of soy products. 1892,2005,3,3,Effects of carbon markets on the optimal management of slash pine (Pinus elliottii) plantations,Global climate change is a growing concern among many policy makers. This concern has led to substantial interest in using forests as one option to mitigate climate change. In this article| the effect of internalizing carbon sequestration benefits on the optimal management of slash pine plantations is explored. Results suggest that without carbon bene is| it is optimal to use herbicide and bedding but not fertilizer because the increase in timber yield does notjustib7 the high cost offertilizer. With carbon benefits| however| the use of fertilizer becomes profitable. Thus a carbon market would likely induce plantation owners to increase their management intensity| which may in turn also have significant impacts on the amount of carbon sequestered. For example| by allowing the management regime to vary in addition to rotation age| the amount of carbon sequestered decreased from 204 to 164 metric tons of carbon per acre when carbon prices increased from $40 to $200 per metric ton. Thus increasing carbon sequestration on the intensive margin may be less feasible than previously supposed| but increasing on the extensive margin may be highly practicable. 7150,2005,2,4,Effects of changing climate on zooplankton and juvenile sockeye salmon growth in southwestern Alaska,Detecting and forecasting the effects of changing climate on natural and exploited populations represent a major challenge to ecologists and resource managers. These efforts are complicated by underlying density-dependent processes and the differential responses of predators and their prey to changing climate. We explored the effects of density-dependence and changing climate on growth of juvenile sockeye salmon and the densities of their zooplankton prey in the Wood River system of southwestern Alaska. We fit dynamic time-series models to data collected between 1962 and 2002 describing growth of juvenile sockeye| timing of spring ice breakup| and summer zooplankton densities. The timing of spring breakup has moved about seven days earlier now than it was in the early 1960s. Our analyses suggest that most of this shift has been a response to the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that persisted from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. This progression toward earlier spring breakup dates was associated with warmer summer water temperatures and increased zooplankton (especially Daphnia) densities| which translated into increased sockeye growth during their first year of life. The number of spawning adults that produced each year class of sockeye had a strong negative effect on juvenile sockeye growth rates| so that the size of the density-dependent effect was| on average| twice as large as the effect of spring breakup date. These results highlight the complexity of ecological responses to changing climate and suggest that climate warming may enhance growing conditions for juvenile salmonids in large lakes of Alaska. 7186,2005,2,4,Effects of climate change on parasitic plants: The root hemiparasitic Orobanchaceae,Climate change may affect hemiparasitic Orobanchaceae (ex-Scrophulariaceae) both directly through impacts on hemiparasite physiology and indirectly through impacts on host plants. This dual action suggests particular sensitivity of the parasite to climate change and any associated impacts on hosts and other members of the community. While little research has addressed the responses of parasitic plants to climate change in natural environments| impacts are predicted from controlled environment studies together with a knowledge of the key ecophysiological traits of hemiparasitic Orobanchaceae| in particular of Striga species| which are important weeds in semi-arid tropical agro-ecosystems| and Rhinanthus species| which can be important components of (principally) grassland communities in the northern temperate zone. The main mode of action of both elevated CO2 and warming will be through changes in photosynthesis and stomatal functioning. Enhanced photosynthesis of the hemiparasite and host will increase parasite carbon gains but may also increase the demand for host mineral nutrients. Mineral nutrition may| therefore| mediate the impacts of climate change on host-parasite associations. The relative insensitivity of hemiparasite stomata to elevated CO2 suggests that high stomatal conductances may be maintained and thus solute uptake may become limited by soil drying driven by higher rates of evapotranspiration and reduced precipitation. Climate change impacts on host-parasite interactions at the individual level will ultimately affect hemiparasite impacts at the community level. Community impacts will be greatest where climate change considerably favours hemiparasite populations or| conversely| causes them to disappear from communities where they were formerly abundant. Impacts will further be mediated by climate impacts on hosts| and the natural enemies of hosts and parasites alike. Further| the wide host range of many root hemiparasitic plants may facilitate migration of their populations through new communities under a changing climate. 7230,2005,2,3,Effects of free-air CO2 enrichment on leaf and panicle temperatures of rice at heading and flowering stage,The elevated CO2 concentration in the atmosphere could induce global warming and physiological changes in plants| e.g. stomatal closure. Through FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment) experiments in a paddy field| it has been confirmed that CO2-induced stomatal closure decreases transpiration| which causes a rise of leaf temperature (T-l). Thus| with elevated CO2| the probability of heat-induced spikelet sterility (HISS) of rice could increase. The objectives of this study were as follows: (1) Measure differences in stomatal conductance (g(s))| particle transpiration conductance (g(p))| T-l| and particle temperature (T-p) of rice plants between FACE plots (E-CO2) and ambient plots (A-CO2) at Wuxi| China (31 degrees 37' N| 120 degrees 28' E) at heading and flowering stages. (2) Model the heat balance on a panicle surface. (3) Simulate T-p and clarify the impacts of FACE on T-p using the model. Panicles emerged and flowered about 4 days earlier in E-CO2 than in A-CO2. The measured T-p was 1 - 2 degrees C higher in E-CO2 than in A-CO2| which was equivalent to or even higher than the difference in T-l between in the two plots. The g(p) decreased with panicle age after heading| while g(s) increased asymptotically with the increase of photosynthetically active radiation. But| under both CO2 conditions| g(p)| was not significantly different for the same days after heading. By modelling heat balance on a panicle surface and by simulating T-p| influences of elevated CO2 on T-p were quantified. First| lower g(p) due to older age after flowering. Second| higher air temperature (T-a) followed by higher T-l. Third| higher long wave radiation emitted from leaves (L-l). The effects of T-a and g(p) on T-p were significant but the effect of g(p) on T-p was not significant. On the same number of days after heading| the net effect of g(p) on T-p would be almost zero. Therefore| raised T-a would be a critical factor for the increase in T-p. 1878,2005,2,4,Effects of large-scale climatic fluctuations on survival and production of young in a Neotropical migrant songbird| the yellow warbler Dendroica petechia,Migrant songbirds are vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions on both the breeding and wintering grounds. For North American Neotropical migrants| the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| via its effects on global precipitation and temperature| modulates the productivity of their temperate and tropical terrestrial ecosystems used during the course of their annual cycle. We evaluated how a densely nesting population of yellow warblers Dendroica petechia in a riparian forest in southern Manitoba| Canada| responded to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) between 1992 and 2001. Standardized mist netting was used to estimate apparent annual survival of adults and production of young. Both adult survival and the production of young were positively correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). More specifically| values of both these demographic parameters were lowest during El Nino years and highest during La Nina years. These findings demonstrate the influence of climate on populations of Neotropical migrants in North America. The more frequent El Ninos predicted to result from future global climate change could negatively affect populations of yellow warblers and other Neotropical migrants breeding in this region. 7152,2005,2,4,Effects of moderately elevated temperature stress on the timing of pollen release and its germination in tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.),Under the increasing threat of global warming to horticultural crop production| research on moderately elevated temperature stress in relation to plant productivity becomes important and urgent. Two tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) cultivars|'NC 8288' (a high temperature-susceptible cultivar) and 'FLA 7156' (a high temperature-tolerant cultivar) were exposed to a moderate level of high temperature stress. Reproductive development (i.e. pollen production| germination and release) in relation to anthesis| was examined under 28degrees/22degreesC and 32degrees/26degreesC day/night temperatures| respectively. High temperature stress reduced the number of pollen grains released| but not the timing of pollen release. Reductions in pollen release and germination were observed in both tolerant and susceptible cultivars; however| the magnitude of the reduction was larger in the susceptible cultivar. Furthermore| pollen grains retained in the anthers exhibited extremely poor germination. These results suggest that the pollen release mechanism and the quality of the pollen grain are closely related. Possible adverse effects of global warming on tomato productivity| and a potential breeding strategy for high temperature tolerant tomato lines are discussed. 6875,2005,2,4,Effects of parameter uncertainties on the modeling of terrestrial biosphere dynamics,Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been shown to broadly reproduce seasonal and interannual patterns of carbon exchange| as well as realistic vegetation dynamics. To assess the uncertainties in these results associated with model parameterization| the Lund-Potsdam-Jena-DGVM (LPJ-DGVM) is analyzed in terms of model robustness and key sensitive parameters. Present-day global land-atmosphere carbon fluxes are relatively well constrained| despite considerable uncertainty in global net primary production mainly propagating from uncertainty in parameters controlling assimilation rate| plant respiration and plant water balance. In response to climate change| water-use efficiency driven increases in net carbon assimilation by plants| transient changes in vegetation composition and global warming effects on soil organic matter dynamics are robust model results. As a consequence| long-term trends in land-atmosphere fluxes are consistently modeled despite an uncertainty range of -3.35 +/- 1.45 PgC yr(-1) at the end of the twenty-first century for the specific scenario used. 1904,2005,2,4,Effects of shore height| wave exposure and geographical distance on thermal niche width of intertidal fauna,Environmental temperature is a controlling factor in ecology and is influenced by global climate change. Upper/lower thermal limits for 10 species of. sessile/sedentary invertebrates were established on a single rocky shore. Two species with different reproductive strategies (Littorina littorea| Nucella lapillus) from 3 Scottish and 3 Irish shores were investigated to test effects of small scale (< 10 km) or larger scale (ca. 500 km) distances| and shore height on upper lethal temperature. At 3 sheltered and 3 exposed shores in Ireland| thermal responses of N. lapillus from the middle of their vertical distribution were compared. Amongst the 10 species from a single shore| thermal niche width rose asymptotically with maximum height of distribution on the shore and maximum emersion time. Median upper lethal temperature and median lower lethal temperature were closely correlated. For 8 species on the middle and upper shore| there were significant linear relationships between shore height and the variables upper lethal temperature| lower lethal temperature and thermal niche width. L. littorea upper lethal temperature was found not to vary with shore height| varied little over small geographical distances| but was significantly higher in Ireland than in Scotland. N| lapillus upper lethal temperature was higher in animals collected from the upper limit of distribution on the shore than in dogwhelks from the lower limit of distribution| was higher in animals taken from sheltered shores than from exposed shores and showed significant local differences. Upper lethal temperature was higher in Scottish than Irish dogwhelks. 6925,2005,2,4,Effects of snowmelt timing and neighbor density on the altitudinal distribution of Potentilla diversifolia in western Colorado| USA,Range limits of temperate high-attitude plants may be controlled by tradeoffs between physically severe but uncrowded conditions| versus mild but crowded conditions. Because up-slope migration of lowland species may accompany global warming and earlier snowmelt| I tested whether crowding by neighbors vs. timing of snowmelt limit Potentilla diversifolia to later-melting sites in the Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.). I transplanted individuals from two altitudes to experimental plots within and below the species' range limit| and experimentally altered snowmelt timing and the density of neighboring vegetation. In contrast to theoretical predictions for biotic control of lower range limits| higher temperatures and drier soils contributed to markedly reduced survivorship and reproduction below the native-range regardless of treatment. Neighbor removal only marginally increased performance both within and below the native-range| suggesting that interactions with neighboring vegetation are much less important for distribution than abiotic factors. Populations from the subalpine zone had longer growth intervals and grew larger than those from the alpine tundra in their native sites| but did not outperform alpine tundra populations when grown below the species' range. Although earlier snowmelt enhances growth| phenotypic plasticity may enable P. diversifolia to persist in later-melting tundra sites while higher temperatures and drought restrict it from much of the subalpine zone. 6831,2005,2,4,Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western United States,Recent studies have shown substantial declines in snow water equivalent (SWE) over much of the western United States in the last half century| as well as trends toward earlier spring snowmelt and peak spring streamflows. These trends are influenced both by interannual and decadal-scale climate variability| and also by temperature trends at longer time scales that are generally consistent with observations of global warming over the twentieth century. In this study| the linear trends in I April SWE over the western United States are examined| as simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model implemented at 1/8 degrees latitude-longitude spatial resolution| and driven by a carefully quality controlled gridded daily precipitation and temperature dataset for the period 1915-2003. The long simulations of snowpack are used as surrogates for observations and are the basis for an analysis of regional trends in snowpack over the western United States and southern British Columbia| Canada. By isolating the trends due to temperature and precipitation in separate simulations| the influence of temperature and precipitation variability on the overall trends in SWE is evaluated. Downward trends in 1 April SWE over the western United States from 1916 to 2003 and 1947 to 2003| and for a time series constructed using two warm Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) epochs concatenated together| are shown to be primarily due to widespread warming. These temperature-related trends are not well explained by decadal climate variability associated with the PDO. Trends in SWE associated with precipitation trends| however| are very different in different time periods and are apparently largely controlled by decadal variability rather than longer-term trends in climate. 1888,2005,2,4,Effects of water stress and high nocturnal temperature on photosynthesis and nitrogen level of a perennial grass Leymus chinensis,Water deficit and high temperature are important environmental factors restricting plant growth and photosynthesis. The two stresses often occur simultaneously| but their interactions on photosynthesis and nitrogen level have been less studied. In the present experiment| we measured photosynthetic parameters| stomatal density| and nitrogen levels| as well as soluble sugar content of leaves of a perennial grass| Leymus chinensis| experiencing two day/night temperature regimes of 30/20 degrees C and 30/25 degrees C| and five different soil moisture contents (the soil relative-water content ranged from 80% to 25 %). Leaf relative water content| leaf biomass| whole plant biomass| the ratio between the leaf biomass and total plant biomass| and the photosynthetic rate| as well as water-use efficiency decreased at high night temperature| especially under severe water stress conditions. Stomatal index was also increased by soil water stress except very severe water stress| and high nocturnal temperature decreased the leaf stomatal index under soil water stress. Nocturnal warming decreased nitrogen concentration in the leaves and increased it in the roots| particularly when plants were subjected to severe water stress. There were significant positive correlations between the photosynthetic rate and both soluble sugar concentration and nitrogen concentration at low nocturnal temperature. It is suggested that nocturnal warming significantly exacerbates the adverse effects of soil water stress| and their synergistic interactions might reduce the plant productivity and constrain its distribution in the region dominated by L. chinensis| based on predictions of global climate change. 7134,2005,2,4,Effects of widespread fish introductions on paedomorphic newts in Europe,As a result of factors such as global warming| habitat destruction| and species introduction| amphibians are declining worldwide. No one| however| has analyzed the status of polymorphic amphibian species at a national or continental scale| although some local reports exist. Our aim was to report on the loss of intraspecific heterochrony as a loss to diversity in determining the consequences of fish stocking on European populations of paedomorphic newts. Paedomorphosis is a polymorphism in which larval traits are retained in the adult stage. We surveyed 39 paedomorphic populations of the alpine ( Triturus alpestris) and palmate ( T. helveticus) newts| all but one of which initially occupied fishless ponds and lakes in France| Italy| Slovenia| Bosnia| Montenegro| and Greece. Exotic fishes were found in 44% of the studied aquatic habitats| with a 100% presence in Montenegro. At all sites paedomorphs disappeared and metamorphs declined. Only fish explained these population changes because alternative factors such as drying were not significant. More catastrophically| fish introductions occurred in habitats known to support the largest populations of newts and even some endemic subspecies. If management and legislative measures are not taken to stop fish stocking| protect paedomorphs as conservation units at national and international levels| and restore natural habitats| all the largest paedomorphic populations may disappear in the near future. Their disappearance would represent a loss of one of the rare| fascinating examples of intraspecific heterochrony. 6833,2005,2,3,El Nino and Greenhouse warming: Results from ensemble simulations with the NCAR CCSM,The changes in model ENSO behavior due to an increase in greenhouse gases| according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) Business-As-Usual scenario| are investigated using a 62-member ensemble 140-yr simulation (1940-2080) with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM; version 1.4). Although the global mean surface temperature increases by about 1.2 K over the period 2000-80| there are no significant changes in the ENSO period| amplitude| and spatial patterns. To explain this behavior| an analysis of the simulation results is combined with results from intermediate complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere models. It is shown that this version of the CCSM is incapable of simulating a correct meridional extension of the equatorial wind stress response to equatorial SST anomalies. The wind response pattern is too narrow and its strength is insensitive to background SST. This leads to a more stable Pacific climate system| a shorter ENSO period| and a reduced sensitivity of ENSO to global warming. 1770,2005,4,4,Electron tomography of nanoparticle clusters: Implications for atmospheric lifetimes and radiative forcing of soot,Nanoparticles are ubiquitous in nature. Their large surface areas and consequent chemical reactivity typically result in their aggregation into clusters. Their chemical and physical properties depend on cluster shapes| which are commonly complex and unknown. This is the first application of electron tomography with a transmission electron microscope to quantitatively determine the three-dimensional (3D) shapes| volumes| and surface areas of nanoparticle clusters. We use soot (black carbon| BC) nanoparticles as an example because it is a major contributor to environmental degradation and global climate change. To the extent that our samples are representative| we find that quantitative measurements of soot surface areas and volumes derived from electron tomograms differ from geometrically derived values by| respectively| almost one and two orders of magnitude. Global sensitivity studies suggest that the global burden and direct radiative forcing of fractal BC are only about 60% of the value if it is assumed that BC has a spherical shape. 6772,2005,2,4,Elevated mercury concentrations in fish in lakes in the Mackenzie River Basin: The role of physical| chemical| and biological factors,During the mid-1990s and through the early 2000s| researchers determined that elevated mercury concentrations were a common occurrence in predatory fish in many lakes in the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB)| located in northern Canada. Here we present the results of studies investigating factors contributing to higher mercury concentrations in fish in many of these lakes. Twenty-two percent of lake trout| 33% of northern pike| and 50% of walleye populations had mean mercury concentrations > 0.5 mu g/g| the guideline for the commercial sale of fish. Higher mercury concentrations were strongly associated with the relatively old age of MRB predatory fish; mean age ranged from 7.6 to 24.9 years for the three species. In contrast| none of the lake trout sampled in eight lakes further south in northern Saskatchewan and Alberta had mean mercury concentrations > 0.5 mu g/g; fish also were younger (mean age 6 years for the 8 lakes). Mercury concentrations in MRB fish generally increased with fish length| age| and trophic feeding although the nature of these relationships varied with the lake. Mean length was a good predictor of mean mercury concentrations in walleye populations across the study lakes but not for whitefish| lake trout| and pike; age was a good predictor for lake trout and walleye. Mercury concentrations in water and invertebrates were similar to those observed in more southerly regions where fish do not have elevated mercury concentrations. Mercury concentrations tended to be higher in fish in smaller vs. larger lakes and as a probable consequence of higher summer epilimnion temperatures| which favour a higher net methylation rate| and higher mercury and methyl mercury concentrations in water which enter these lakes from the watershed. Increasing fishing pressures on MRB lakes may be a means of reducing mean fish age| improving growth rates| and decreasing mercury body burdens. Increased global warming may result in higher mercury concentrations in fish through increased water temperatures| a longer ice free season| and increased release of stored mercury from the watershed into these takes. Crown Copyright (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1827,2005,2,4,Elevation| substrate| and the potential for climate-induced tree migration in the White Mountains| New Hampshire| USA,We assessed the potential for climate-induced migration of tree species along elevation gradients in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. To do so| we determined the extent to which tree species abundances were associated with elevation| site| and substrate-related variables over a range of elevations (530-880 m) that included the transition from northern hardwoods to spruce-fir forest in the White Mountain National Forest (USA). One-hundred and ten| 400 m(2) plots were established along three elevational transects; transects were separated from each other by at least 9 km. In each plot| site and substrate characteristics were measured and all stems >= 2.5 cm dbh were tallied. Species importance values were calculated and those of the five most abundant tree species -balsam fir| red spruce| sugar maple| American beech| and yellow birch - were regressed on elevation and site-substrate characteristics. Plots were ordinated using detrended correspondence analysis and their first and second axis scores were regressed on elevation and site-substrate characteristics. Both elevation and site-substrate characteristics - parent material type in particular - were important predictors of importance value. Balsam fir and red spruce abundance increased with elevation and| at all elevations| reached greatest abundance on shallow-to-rock parent materials. Fir showed greater abundance on north-facing than on south-facing slopes. Sugar maple and American beech declined with elevation and both| but especially sugar maple| were associated with fine and compact tills. Yellow birch| which did not show any association with substrate characteristics| increased to about 770 m| then declined. The frequency of different parent material types changed with elevation| with deep| fine and compact tills becoming less frequent - and shallow soils (rock within 50 cm of soil surface) becoming more frequent - with elevation. If the tree species-substrate associations described here are causal| then the elevational patterns of species abundance observed today are a consequence of both edaphic and climatic factors. As a consequence| vegetation response to climatic warming may be complex. While warming may result in upward migration of yellow birch and American beech| sugar maple| confronted with reduced availability of suitable substrate at high elevations| will likely show little upward response. Red spruce and balsam fir may persist on thin soils at lower elevations unless displaced by eastern hemlock. Thus| climatic warming will likely alter traditionally recognized tree assemblages in this region. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7165,2005,4,4,Emission of greenhouse gases from constructed wetlands for wastewater treatment and from riparian buffer zones,We measured N2O| CH and CO2 fluxes in horizontal and vertical flow constructed wetlands (CW) and in a riparian alder stand in southern Estonia using the closed chamber method in the period from October 2001 to November 2003. The average rates of N2O| CH4 and CO2 emission from the riparian gray alder stand were from - 0.4 to 58 mu g N2O-N m(-2) h(-1) and 0.1 - 265 mu g CH4-C m(-2) h(-1)| 55-61 mg CO2-C m(-2) h(-1)| respectively. The average N2O-N emission from the microsites above the inflow pipes of horizontal subsurface flow (HSSF) CWs was 6.4-31 mu g N2O-N m(-2) h(-1)| whereas the outflow microsites emitted 2.4 - 8 mu g N2O-N m(-2)h(-1). In vertical subsurface flow (VSSF) beds the same value was 35.6-44.7 mu g N2O-N m(-2) h(-1). The average CH4 emission from the inflow and outflow microsites in the HSSF CWs differed significantly ranging from 640 to 9715 and from 30 to 7 70 mu g CH4-C m(-2) h-1| respectively. The average CO2 emission was somewhat higher in VSSF beds (140 - 291 mg CO2-C m(-2) h(-1)) and at inflow microsites of HSSF beds (61 - 140 mg CO2-C m(-2) h(-1)). The global warming potential (GWP) from N2O and CH4 was comparatively high in both types of CWs (4.8 +/- 9.8 and 6.8 +/- 16.2 t CO2 eq ha(-1) a(-1) in the HSSF CW 6.5 +/- 13.0 and 5.3 +/- 24.7 t CO2 eq ha(-1) a(-1) in the hybrid CW| respectively). The GWP of riparian alder forest from both N2O and CH4 was relatively low (0.4 +/- 1.0 and 0.1 +/- 0.30 t CO2 eq ha(-1) a(-1)| respectively)| whereas the CO2-C flux was remarkable (3.5 +/- 3.7 t ha(-1) a(-1)). The global influence of CWs is not significant. Even if all the global domestic wastewater were treated by wetlands| their share in the trace gas emission budget would be less than 1 %. 6784,2005,3,4,Emission of N2O| N-2| CH4| and CO2 from constructed wetlands for wastewater treatment and from riparian buffer zones,We measured nitrous oxide (N2O)| dinitrogen (N-2) methane (CH4)| and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in horizontal and vertical flow constructed wetlands (CW) and in a riparian alder stand in southern Estonia using the closed chamber method in the period from October 2001 to November 2003. The replicates' average values of N2O| N-2| CH4 and CO2 fluxes from the riparian gray alder stand varied from -0.4 to 58 mu g N2O-N m(-2) h(-1)| 0.02-17.4 mg N-2-N m(-2) h(-1)| 0.1-265 mu g CH4-C m(-2) h(-1) and 55-61 mg CO2-C m(-2) h(-1)| respectively. In horizontal subsurface flow (HSSF) beds of CWs| the average N-2 emission varied from 0.17 to 130 and from 0.33 to 119 mg N-2-N m(-2) h(-1) in the vertical subsurface flow (VSSF) beds. The average N2O-N emission from the microsites above the inflow pipes of the HSSF CWs was 6.4-31 mu g N2O-N m(-2) h(-1)| whereas the outflow microsites emitted 2.4-8 mu g N2O-N m(-2) h(-1). In VSSF beds| the same value was 35.6-44.7 mu g N2O-N M-2 h(-1). The average CH4 emission from the inflow and outflow microsites in the HSSF CWs differed significantly| ranging from 640 to 9715 and from 30 to 770 mu g CH4-C m(-2) h(-1)| respectively. The average CO2 emission was somewhat higher in VSSF beds (140-291 Mg CO2-C m(-2) h(-1)) and at the inflow microsites of HSSF beds (61-140 mg CO2-C m(-2) h(-1)). The global warming potential (GWP) from N2O and CH4 was comparatively high in both types of CWs (4.8 +/- 9.8 and 6.8 +/- 16.2 +/- CO2 eq ha(-1) a(-1) in the HSSF CW 6.5 +/- 13.0 and 5.3 +/- 24.7 t CO2 eq ha(-1) a(-1) in the hybrid CW| respectively). The GWP of the riparian alder forest from both N2O and CH4 was relatively low (0.4 +/- 1.0 and 0.1 +/- 0.30 t CO2 eq ha(-1) a(-1)| respectively)| whereas the CO2-C flux was remarkable (3.5 +/- 3.7 t ha(-1) a(-1)). The global influence of CWs is not significant. Even if all global domestic wastewater were treated by wetlands| their share of the trace gas emission budget would be less than 1%. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6759,2005,3,3,Energy materials,Fundamental advances in the solid state chemistry of ionically conducting solids are essential if we are to address the problem of clean energy supply and hence global warming. Several new directions are discussed in this context. Recently| we have synthesised| for the first time| TiO2 nanowires. They possess diameters between 20 and 40 nm and may be up to several microns in length. The crystal structure is that of the less well known polymorph TiO2-B. The nanowires are excellent intercalation hosts for Li| reaching a composition of Li0.91TiO2-B (corresponding to 305 mAh g(-1) of charge stored)| almost twice the capacity of anatase. After a small irreversible capacity loss on the first cycle| reversibility of intercalation is excellent. This material is of interest as a potential negative electrode in rechargeable lithium batteries. The first synthesis of ordered mesoporous Fe2O3 materials is described. Two forms| exhibiting respectively pores ordered in 2 and 3 dimensions have been characterised. Metal-polyether complexes (polymer electrolytes)| the solid state analogues of the crown ether complexes| are discussed. For some 30 years it was believed that only amorphous lithium-polyether complexes supported ionic conductivity| recently we have shown that this is incorrect. We have reported the first example of crystalline polymer electrolytes supporting ionic conductivity. New developments involving the doping of stoichiometric metal-polyether complexes| specifically PEO6:LiXF6| where X = P| As| Sb| are discussed that enhance the conductivity by up to 2 orders of magnitude. (c) 2005 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. 6745,2005,5,3,Enhanced terrestrial weathering/runoff and surface ocean carbonate production during the recovery stages of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum,[1] The carbonate saturation profile of the oceans shoaled markedly during a transient global warming event known as the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) ( circa 55 Ma). The rapid release of large quantities of carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system is believed to have triggered this intense episode of dissolution along with a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE). The brevity ( 120 - 220 kyr) of the PETM reflects the rapid enhancement of negative feedback mechanisms within Earth's exogenic carbon cycle that served the dual function of buffering ocean pH and reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels. Detailed study of the PETM stratigraphy from Ocean Drilling Program Site 690 (Weddell Sea) reveals that the CIE recovery period| which postdates the CIE onset by similar to 80 kyr| is represented by an expanded ( similar to 2.5 m thick) interval containing a unique planktic foraminiferal assemblage strongly diluted by coccolithophore carbonate. Collectively| the micropaleontological and sedimentological changes preserved within the CIE recovery interval reflect a transient state when ocean-atmosphere chemistry fostered prolific coccolithophore blooms that suppressed the local lysocline to relatively deeper depths. A prominent peak in the abundance of the clay mineral kaolinite is associated with the CIE recovery interval| indicating that continental weathering/runoff intensified at this time as well ( Robert and Kennett| 1994). Such parallel stratigraphic changes are generally consonant with the hypothesis that enhanced continental weathering/ runoff and carbonate precipitation helped sequester carbon during the PETM recovery period ( e. g.| Dickens et al.| 1997; Zachos et al.| 2005). 6958,2005,3,4,Environmental and economic assessment of landfill gas electricity generation in Korea using LEAP model,As a measure to establish a climate-friendly energy system| Korean government has proposed to expand landfill gas (LFG) electricity generation capacity. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of LFG electricity generation on the energy market| the cost of generating electricity and greenhouse gases emissions in Korea using a computer-based software tool called 'Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system' (LEAP) and the associated 'Technology and Environmental Database'. In order to compare LFG electricity generation with existing other generating facilities| business as usual scenario of existing power plants was surveyed| and then alternative scenario investigations were performed using LEAP model. Different alternative scenarios were considered| namely the base case with existing electricity facilities| technological improvement of gas engine and LFG maximum utilization potential with different options of gas engine (GE)| gas turbine (GT)| and steam turbine (ST). In the technological improvement scenario| there will be 2.86 GWh or more increase in electricity output| decrease of 45 million won (Exchange rate (1$= 1200 won)). in costs| and increase of 10.3 thousand ton Of CO2 in global warming potentials due to same period (5 year) of technological improvement. In the maximum utilization potential scenario| LFG electricity generation technology is substituted for coal steam| nuclear| and combined cycle process. Annual cost per electricity product of LFG electricity facilities (GE 58 MW| GT 53.5 MW| and ST 54.5 MW) are 45.1| 34.3| and 24.4 won/kWh| and steam turbine process is cost-saving. LFG-utilization with other forms of energy utilization reduces global warming potential by maximum 75% with compared to spontaneous emission of CH4. LFG electricity generation would be the good solution for CO2 displacement over the medium term and additional energy profits. (c) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7156,2005,3,4,Environmental assessment of different solar driven advanced oxidation processes,In this work a comparative environmental assessment of different advanced oxidation processes (AOP's) is performed. Two energy scenarios have been considered according to the energy source used: solar energy and electricity (UVA lamp). A life cycle assessment (LCA) is carried out in order to quantify the environmental impacts of the AOP's. The treatments considered are heterogenous photocatalysis| photo-Fenton reactions| the coupling of heterogeneous photocatalysis and photo-Fenton| and heterogeneous photocatalysis in combination with hydrogen peroxide. These AOP's are applied to the treatment of kraft mill bleaching wastewaters. The system under study includes the production of the catalysts| reagents as well as the production of electricity; eight environmental impact categories are assessed for each AOP: global warming| ozone depletion| aquatic eutrophication| acidification| human toxicity| freshwater aquatic toxicity| photochemical ozone formation| and abiotic resource depletion. the results of the LCA show that the environmental impact of AOP's is caused mainly by the amount of electricity consumed| whereas the impact of producing the reagents and catalysts is comparatively low. For this reason| the solar energy scenario reduces the impact more than 90% for almost all AOP's and impact categories. None of the solar driven AOP's can be identified as the best in all impact categories| but heterogenous photocatalysis and photo-Fenton reactions obtain better results than the remaining treatments| since these treatments do not consume simultaneously both TiO2 and H2O2| the chemicals with highest environmental burdens in the system. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7203,2005,3,4,Environmental Assessment of Logistics Outsourcing,Environmental awareness is increasingly important to society| government| and industry| and there is a strong demand for sustainable development practices. The importance of supply chain management is critical| as it characterizes and influences the life cycles of all products. Within the major logistics trends| outsourcing has a significant potential to increase sustainability in the supply chain as third-party logistics providers (3PLs) focus on improving resource utilization and making processes more efficient. However| their motivation is largely economic| and an environmental perspective is rarely seen in 3PLs. As consumers demand greener alternatives and| subsequently| environmental regulatory measures are implemented| 3PLs will have to become more environmentally and socially aware in order to develop sustainability goals. This study compares two scenarios using life-cycle assessment (LCA): one where logistics functions are handled in-house| and an alternative scenario where such functions are outsourced to a 3PL. The impacts of logistics outsourcing on energy utilization| global warming potential| and fatalities are first quantified in the supply chain of an automobile. Even though vehicle operation| responsible for most of the impacts considered| is outside the domain of logistics functions| logistics outsourcing nonetheless has the potential to reduce energy use and global warming potential by 0.4-2% and fatalities by 0.8-3.3% throughout the entire life cycle of a typical automobile. Road and air transportation are found to account for most of the impacts in all selected metrics. Analyzing logistics outsourcing in the other sectors of the U. S. economy revealed the same trend as observed in the supply chain of an automobile. 6937,2005,3,4,Environmental assessment of supercritical water oxidation and other sewage sludge handling options,Sustainable development relies on the eco-efficient use of all flows in society; more value created out of each resource unit. Supercritical water oxidation (SCWO) can be used for treatment of wet organic waste. The technology has been under development for over 20 years but has not yet been fully commercialized. SCWO allows for complete oxidation of all organics in sewage sludge and almost complete recovery of the inherent energy| essentially without harmful emissions. In this paper| a life-cycle assessment (LCA) of sewage sludge SCWO (Aqua-Critox) is presented and the results are compared with LCA results for other sludge handling options: agricultural use| co-incineration with municipal solid waste| incineration with subsequent phosphorus extraction (BioCon) and sludge fractionation with phosphorus recovery (Cambi-KREPRO). For SCWO| beneficial utilization of the heat of reaction is of crucial importance for the outcome. The electricity consumed by pumping and the nitrous oxide produced are other important parameters. The best sludge handling option from an environmental point of view depends on what aspect is considered more important in the impact assessment. Regarding global warming| the energy recovery methods perform better than agricultural use. 6929,2005,3,4,Environmental impact consolidated evaluation of energy systems by an LCA-NETS scheme,The issue of LCA environmental impacts produced from energy systems is presently being discussed; they are directly involved in fossil fuel depletion| global warming| air pollution| rain acidification| etc. In evaluating various kinds of energy systems from the lack concept| an identical standard measure is to be introduced| as there are many different causes for generating environmental loads to the environment and the respective causes have their respective characteristics. Consequently| the authors have proposed an integrated scheme called the ESS (Eco-load Standardization Scheme) to express the amount of environmental load from different causes| using an identical standard based on objective data. This is a 'Loader-Receiver Tolerant Balance Theory'| which indicates the balance of the maximum tolerance value that the Loader can discharge or consume with the maximum tolerable value by the Receiver. This ESS employs the NETS (Numerical Eco-load Total Standard) as the unit for expressing quantitatively the integrated and standardized environmental load. This LCA-NETS scheme is applied to different energy systems such as various kinds of power plants and co-generation systems| and the LCA evaluations are discussed for further ecological improvement. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6973,2005,3,3,Environmental impacts on concentrate feed supply systems for Japanese domestic livestock industry as evaluated by a Life-Cycle Assessment method,The objectives of this study were to evaluate and compare the environmental load of two different concentrate feed supply systems to the Japanese domestic livestock industry using the Life-cycle Assessment (LCA) method. The current system was defined as that requiring 11.469 million tons of corn imported from the US by sea transport and supplied as concentrate feed to the Japanese domestic livestock industry The new system proposed by Kaku et al. in 2004 was defined as where 802|830 tons of US imported corn would not be planted in US and would be replaced by barley planted in 278 thousand ha of Japanese domestic land left fallow for the past year. In this case| 909|000 tons of domestic harvest barley would have been supplied as concentrate feed to the Japanese domestic livestock industry in 2000. The activities taken into account within the two system boundaries were three stages: concentrate feed production| feed transportation and gas emission from the soil by chemical fertilizer. Finished compost was regarded as organic fertilizer and was put instead of chemical fertilizers within the system boundary Adoption of this new concentrate feed supply system by the Japanese domestic livestock industry could reduce 78|462 tons CO2-equivalents of global warming potential| 347 tons SO2-equivalents of acidification potential| 54 tons PO4-equivalents of eutrophication potential and 0.842 million GJ as energy consumption below 2|000 levels. This LCA study comparing two Japanese domestic livestock concentrate feed supply systems showed that the stage of feed transport contributed most to global warming and the stage of emission from the soil contributed most to acidification and eutrophication. The Japanese domestic livestock industry could participate in emissions trading with CO2-equivalents reduced by shifting from some imported US corn as a concentrate feed to domestic barley planted in land left fallow. In that case the Japanese government could launch emissions trading in accordance with Kyoto Protocol in the future.
7213,2005,3,3,Environmental life-cycle impacts of CRT and LCD desktop computer displays,Final impact results from an industry-wide environmental life-cycle assessment of cathode ray tube (CRT) and liquid crystal display (LCD) computer monitors are presented for 20 environmental impact categories. Considering the entire life cycle of each monitor| water eutrophication and aquatic ecotoxicity impacts for the baseline analysis were greater for the LCD while all other impact categories (e.g.| resource use| energy| ozone depletion| landfill space use| human health toxicity) were greater for the CRT. Energy inputs from CRT glass manufacturing| for which there was some uncertainty in the data| drive many of the CRT impacts. Modifying the glass energy data based on comparison to secondary data resulted in nine of the 20 impact categories having greater relative life-cycle impacts for the LCD than the CRT. When comparing the manufacturing stages of each monitor type in the baseline scenario| the LCD has greater relative burdens on the environment in eight categories. Energy| global warming| and human health toxicity impacts are also presented in greater detail| showing contributions from each life-cycle stage. This study's results can allow industry to focus on frit manufacturing| PWB manufacturing improvements can be made. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 7214,2005,3,4,Environmental performance comparison of wet and thermal routes for phosphate fertilizer production using LCA - A Brazilian experience,Life cycle assessment (LCA) was applied to perform an environmental comparison between the phosphate fertilizers fused magnesium phosphate (FMP) and triple superphosphate (TSP). In order to perform the comparison a functional unit (FU) of 41.66 kg P2O5| which corresponds to 208 kg FMP (20% P2O5) and 93 kg TSP (45% P2O5) was defined. Concerning the product systems a "cradle to gate" approach was used in both cases. In order to perform the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) the impact categories: global warming potential (GWP)| ozone depletion potential (ODP)| human toxicity potential (HTP)| fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity potential (FWAETP)| acidification potential (AP) and eutrophication potential (EP) were selected. The development of this step was accomplished using CML 2 baseline 2000 method| with the help of the computational tool SimaPro 5| version 5.1.0.21. The study identified that in the case of FMP| the extensive electricity dependence is the main source of potential negative environmental impacts. On the other hand| for the TSP| the great distances between the phosphate rock mines and the main manufacture centers for both H3PO4 and TSP together with the transportation model adopted in this country appear as the main causes of environmental impacts. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6771,2005,3,4,Environmental performance index for the forest,Comparative environmental performance indices for energy use| global warming potential (GWP)| air| water| and solid waste emissions covering the stages of processing front the harvesting of wood and the extraction of non-renewable materials to the construction of a house using different materials are developed in other articles. Developing performance indices that compare renewable resources and their environmental impacts on the land base to the depletion of non-renewable resources is problematic. Materials that involve mining| are inherently not renewable compared to forest resources| which are renewal: le over some rotation age of the forest. The environmental impacts on the forest are dynamic and are impacted by landscape changes with some related to the production of wood for markets. Forest ecology metrics are developed to show the impact of management alternatives based on changing stand structures. Forest diversity| measured by structure classes| is impacted by longer rotation and thinning alternatives as well as preservation and protection policies. Management alternatives can contribute to some restoration of pre-settlement conditions of forests and provides a benchmark front which to evaluate reduced stand structure diversity and loss of habitat. While a century of commercial management has reduced the diversity in the forest and in particular has increased the share of acres in both the stand initiation stage and the closed canopy or stem exclusion stage| the trend has already turned in response to demands for more forest acres under increased protection and preservation status. Increased thinning from more intensive management and policies to protect threatened species are both contributing to increased understory reinitiation and ultimately more complex old forest structures. Longer rotation management could add to this effect but at a Substantial cost since the economics of long rotation management falls below acceptable levels for economic investments. 7093,2005,3,3,Environmental risk assessment of hydrofluoroethers (HFEs),Hydrofluoroethers (HFEs) are being used as third generation replacements to chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)| hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs) because of their nearly zero stratospheric ozone depletion and relatively low global warming potential. HFEs have been developed under commercial uses as cleaning solvents (incl.| HFE-7500| C7F15OC2H5; HFE-7200| C4F9OC2H5; HFE-7100| C4F9CH3; HFE-7000| n-C3F7OCH3) blowing agents (incl.| HFE-245mc| CF3CF2OCH3; HFC-356mec| CF3CHFCF2OCH3) refrigerants (incl.| HFE-143a| CF3OCH3; HFE-134| CHF2OCHF2; HFE-245mc| CF3CF2OCH3) and dry etching agents in semiconductor manufacturing| (incl.| HFE-227me| CF3OCHFCF3) From the environmental| ecological| and health points of view| it is important to understand their environmental risks for these HFEs from a diversity of commercial applications and industrial processes. This paper aims to introduce these HFEs with respect to physiochemical properties| commercial uses| and environmental hazards (i.e. global warming| photochemical potential| fire and explosion hazard| and environmental partition). Further| it addresses the updated data on the human toxicity| occupational exposure and potential health risk of commercial HFEs. It is concluded that there are few HFEs that still possess some environmental hazards| including global warming| flammability hazard and adverse effect of exposure. The partition coefficient for these HFEs has been estimated using the group contribution method; the values of log K-ow for commercial HFEs have been estimated to be below 3.5. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7223,2005,3,3,Environmental systems analysis of pig production - The impact of feed choice,Goal| Scope and Method. The purpose of this environmental system analysis was to investigate the impact of feed choice in three pig production scenarios using substance flow models complemented by life cycle assessment methodology. The function of the system studied was to grow piglets of 29 kg to finished pigs of 115 kg. Three alternative scenarios of protein supply were designed| one based on imported soybean meal (scenario SOY); one based on locally grown peas and rapeseed cake (scenario PEA) and one based on Swedish peas and rapeseed meal complemented by synthetic amino acids (scenario SAA). The environmental impact of both feed production as such and the subsequent environmental impact of the feed in the pig production sub-system were analysed. The analysed feed ingredients were barley| wheat| peas| rapeseed meal| rapeseed cake| soybean meal and synthetic amino acids. The crude protein level of the feed affected the nitrogen content in the manure| which in turn affected nitrogen emissions throughout the system and the fertilising value of the manure| ultimately affecting the need for mineral fertiliser application for feed production. Results and Discussion. The results showed that feed production contributed more than animal husbandry to the environmental burden of the system for the impact categories energy use| global warming potential and eutrophication| whereas the opposite situation was the case for acidification. The environmental impacts of scenarios SOY| PEA and SAA were 6.8| 5.3 and 6.3 MJ/kg pig growth; 1.5| 1.3 and 1.4 kg CO2-eq/kg pig growth; 0.55| 0.55 and 0.45 kg O-2-eq/kg pig growth; and 24| 25 and 20 g SO2-eq/kg pig growth| respectively. The results suggested that scenario SAA was environmentally preferable| and that the reason for this was a low crude protein level of the feed and exclusion of soybean meal from the feed. Conclusions. Feed choice had an impact on the environmental performance of pig meat production| not only via the features of the feed as fed to the pigs| such as the crude protein content| but also via the raw materials used| since the environmental impact from the production of these differs and since feed production had a large impact on the system as a whole. 6840,2005,2,4,Environmental warming increases invasion potential of alpine lake communities by imported species,Global warming increasingly pressures species to show adaptive migratory responses. We hypothesized that warming increases invasion of alpine lakes by low-elevation montane zooplankton by suppressing native competitors and predators. This hypothesis was tested by conducting a two-factor experiment| consisting of a warming treatment (13 vs. 20 degrees C) crossed with three invasion levels (alpine only| alpine+montane| montane only)| in growth chambers over a 28-day period. Warming significantly reduced total consumer biomass owing to the decline of large alpine species| resulting in greater autotrophic abundance. Significant temperature-invasion interactions occurred as warming suppressed alpine zooplankton| while stimulating certain imported species. Herbivorous invaders suppressed functionally similar alpine species while larger native omnivores reduced invasion by smaller taxa. Warming did not affect total invader biomass because imported species thrived under ambient and warmed alpine conditions. Our findings suggest that the adaptability of remote alpine lake communities to global warming is limited by species dispersal from lower valleys| or possibly nearby warmer alpine ponds. 7211,2005,3,4,Environmentally benign manufacturing: Observations from Japan| Europe and the United States,A recent international panel study (Gutowski T| Murphy C| Allen D| Bauer D| Bras B| Piwonka T| Sheng P| Sutherland J| Thurston D| Wolff E. WTEC Panel Report on: Environmentally Benign Manufacturing (EBM)| 2000 on the web at; http://itri. loyola.edu/ebm/ and http://www.wtec.org/ebm/) finds Environmentally Benign Manufacturing (EBM) emerging as a significant competitive dimension between companies. With differing views on future developments| companies| especially large international companies| are positioning themselves to take advantage of emerging environmental trends. Among Japanese companies visited| the panel observed an acute interest in using the environmental advantages of their products and processes to enhance their competitive position in the market. In the northern European countries visited| the panel saw what could be interpreted as primarily a protectionist posture; that is| the development of practices and policies to enhance the well-being of EU countries| that could act as barriers to outsiders. In the U.S.| the panel found a high degree of environmental awareness among the large international companies| most recently in response to offshore initiatives| mixed with skepticism. In this article| we survey EBM practices at leading firms| rate the competitiveness of the three regions visited| and close with observations of change since the study. Based upon these results| major research questions are then posed. In sum| the study found evidence that U.S. firms may be at a disadvantage due in part to a lack of coherent national goals in such areas as waste management| global warming| energy efficiency and product take back. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7010,2005,5,4,Eocene plant diversity at Laguna del Hunco and Rio Pichileufu| Patagonia| Argentina,The origins of South America's exceptional plant diversity are poorly known from the fossil record. We report on unbiased quantitative collections of fossil floras from Laguna del Hunco ( LH) and Rio Pichileufu (RP) in Patagonia| Argentina. These sites represent a frost-free humid biome in South American middle latitudes of the globally warm Eocene. At LH| from 4|303 identified specimens| we recognize 186 species of plant organs and 152 species of leaves. Adjusted for sample size| the LH flora is more diverse than comparable Eocene floras known from other continents. The RP flora shares several taxa with LH and appears to be as rich| although sampling is preliminary. The two floras were previously considered coeval. However| (40)Ar/(39)Ar dating of three ash-fall tuff beds in close stratigraphic association with the RP flora indicates an age of 47.4 +/- 0.05 Ma| 4.5 million years younger than LH| for which one tuff is 0.05 reanalyzed here as Ma. Thus| diverse floral associations 51.91 +/- 0.22 in Patagonia evolved by the Eocene| possibly in response to global warming| and were persistent and areally extensive. This suggests extraordinary richness at low latitudes via the latitudinal diversity gradient| corroborated by published palynological data from the Eocene of Colombia. 1828,2005,2,4,Equity and justice in climate change adaptation amongst natural-resource-dependent societies,Issues of equity and justice are high on international agendas dealing with the impacts of global climate change. But what are the implications of climate change for equity and justice amongst vulnerable groups at local and sub-national levels? We ask this question for three reasons: (a) there is a considerable literature suggesting that the poorest and most vulnerable groups will disproportionately experience the negative effects of 21st century climate change; (b) such changes are likely to impact significantly on developing world countries| where natural-resource dependency is high; and (c) international conventions increasingly recognise the need to centrally engage resource stakeholders in agendas in order to achieve their desired aims| as part of more holistic approaches to sustainable development. These issues however have implications for distributive and procedural justice| particularly when considered within the efforts of the UNFCCC. The issues are examined through an evaluation of key criteria relating to climate change scenarios and vulnerability in the developing world| and second through two southern African case studies that explore the ways in which livelihoods are differentially impacted by (i) inequitable natural-resource use policies| (ii) community-based natural-resource management programmes. Finally| we consider the placement of climate change amongst the package of factors affecting equity in natural-resource use| and whether this placement creates a case for considering climate change as 'special' amongst livelihood disturbing factors in the developing world. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7035,2005,3,2,Estimate of ecological efficiency for thermal power plants in Brazil,Global warming and the consequent climatic changes that will come as a result of the increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere have increased the world's concern regarding reduction of these emissions. mainly in developed countries that pollute the most. Electricity generation in thermal power plants| as well as other industrial activities| such as chemical and petrochemical ones| entail the emission of pollutants that are harmful to humans| animals and plants. The emissions of carbon oxides (CO and CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are directly related to the greenhouse effect. The negative effects of sulfur oxides (SO2 and SO3 named SOx) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) are their contribution to the formation of acid rain and their impacts on human health and on the biota in general. This study intends to evaluate the environmental impacts of the atmospheric pollution resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. This study considers the emissions of CO2| SOx| NOx and PM in an integral way| and they are compared to the international air quality standards that are in force using a parameter called ecological efficiency (epsilon). (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6855,2005,4,4,Estimating organic carbon in the soils of Europe for policy support,The estimation of soil carbon content is of pressing concern for soil protection and in mitigation strategies for global warming. This paper describes the methodology developed and the results obtained in a study aimed at estimating organic carbon contents (%) in topsoils across Europe. The information presented in map form provides policy-makers with estimates of current topsoil organic carbon contents for developing strategies for soil protection at regional level. Such baseline data are also of importance in global change modelling and may be used to estimate regional differences in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and projected changes therein| as required for example under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change| after having taken into account regional differences in bulk density. The study uses a novel approach combining a rule-based system with detailed thematic spatial data layers to arrive at a much-improved result over either method| using advanced methods for spatial data processing. The rule-based system is provided by the pedo-transfer rules| which were developed for use with the European Soil Database. The strong effects of vegetation and land use on SOC have been taken into account in the calculations| and the influence of temperature on organic carbon contents has been considered in the form of a heuristic function. Processing of all thematic data was performed on harmonized spatial data layers in raster format with a 1 km x 1 km grid spacing. This resolution is regarded as appropriate for planning effective soil protection measures at the European level. The approach is thought to be transferable to other regions of the world that are facing similar questions| provided adequate data are available for these regions. However| there will always be an element of uncertainty in estimating or determining the spatial distribution of organic carbon contents of soils. 1903,2005,4,4,Estimation of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation in near future and prediction of their contribution in expected global climate change,On the basis of results obtained in our paper [Dorman| L.I. Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change| controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays| Paper D2.1/C2.2/E3.1-0097-04. Adv. Space Res.| 2004 (accepted)]| we determine: the dimension of the Heliosphere (modulation region)| radial diffusion coefficient and other parameters of convection-diffusion; drift mechanisms of long-term variations of cosmic ray (CR) dependence on particle energy; level of solar activity (SA); and generally| the solar magnetic field. We obtain this important information on the basis of CR and SA data in the past| taking into account the theory of convection-diffusion and global drift modulation of galactic CR in the Heliosphere. By using these results and other regularly published predictions of expected SA variation in the near future| as well as predictions of the next SA cycle| we may make predictions of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation expected in the near future (up to 10-12 years). In [Dorman| L.I. Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change| controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays| Paper D2.1/C2.2/E3.1-0097-04. Adv. Space Res.| 2004 (accepted)]| properties of connections between long-term variation in CR intensity and some part of a global climate change were estimated| controlled by solar activity through CR. We show that in this way we may make predictions of some part of a global climate change expected in the near future (up to 10-12 years and maybe more| depending upon the period during which definite predictions of SA can be made)| controlled by solar activity through CR. In this case| estimations of expected long-term changes in the planetary distribution of cutoff rigidities| which also influence CR intensity| as well as CR-influenced effects on global climate variation| become important. (c) 2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7036,2005,3,3,Estimation of the environmental credit for the recycling of granulated blast furnace slag based on LCA,The objective of this research was to quantify the environmental credit of the granulated blast furnace slag (GBFS) recycling| and then to propose a recycling option best suited for the maximization of the environmental credit. The most appropriate method for the quantification of the environmental credit resulting from the recycling of byproducts is the system expansion method. The system expansion method was applied to the recycling of GBFS from the iron and steel manufacturing process for the quantification of its environmental credit. GBFS has been recycled to raw materials for Portland cement| slag cement| slag powder and silicate fertilizer. Environmental credit of each recycling application was calculated from three different perspectives: life cycle inventory on CO2| characterized impact on global warming| and weighted impact of the product system based on the Eco-indicator 99 method. Maximum environmental credit of the GBFS recycling occurs when recycled to raw materials for slag cement and Portland cement. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6951,2005,3,2,Ethanol as fuels: Energy| carbon dioxide balances| and ecological footprint,The major contributor to global warming is considered to be the high levels of greenhouse gas emissions| especially carbon dioxide (CO2)| caused by the burning of fossil fuel. Thus| to mitigate CO2 emissions| renewable energy sources such as ethanol have been seen as a promising alternative to fossil fuel consumption. Brazil was the world's first nation to run a large-scale program for using ethanol as fuel. Eventually| the United States also developed large-scale production of ethanol. In this study| we compare the benefits and environmental impacts of ethanol fuel| in Brazil and in the United States| using the ecological footprint tool developed by Wackernagel and Rees. We applied the STELLA model to gauge possible outcomes as a function of variations in the ethanol production scenario. 7130,2005,2,4,Euphausiid distribution| abundance and succession in North Atlantic warm-core ring 82B,Zooplankton collections were made with a multiple opening/closing net and environmental sensing system (MOCNESS) both day and night in warm-core ring 82B in the North Atlantic Ocean and at night in the Slope Water between March and August 1982. Species succession of euphausiids in 82B was presented during the lifespan of this warm-core ring| aiming at providing basic information on possible response of North Atlantic marine ecosystem to global warming. Species succession of euphausiids (32 species) in this long-lived warm-core ring was investigated. Major physical changes of 82B occurred in March to April by convective mixing and thermostad cooling| in April/May by stratification of the surface waters and in August by the interaction with Gulf Stream. Substantial changes in species composition were observed that corresponded to these physical changes. Four different patterns were found in temporal change in abundance of warm-water species. There were species that decreased in number from March to August| species that decreased from March to June| but increased in August| species that increased from Match to August and species that showed no systematic trend. These differences may be attributable to a species tolerance to the thermostad temperature decrease and their vertical distribution. There was also a large change from April to June with ascendance of the transition species| Thysanoessa gregaria. Cold-water species had variable patterns of abundance in 82B and occurred more abundantly in the Slope Water than in the ring. The monthly percentage decrease in the abundance of warm-water species in 82B was high compared with that of cold-water species in cold-core rings as a result of the more rapid changes in the physical structure and the shorter lifetimes of warm-core rings in the western North Atlantic. 6938,2005,5,4,Evaluating the relationship between pedofacies and faunal composition: Implications for faunal turnover at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary,Fossil vertebrates commonly are preserved in paleosols that originally formed on the floodplains of ancient rivers. Laterally adjacent paleosols that differ in terms of their chemistry and morphology due to geological and environmental gradients on the ancient floodplain are called pedofacies. Vertebrate fossil assemblages from the Willwood Formation (Bighorn Basin| Wyoming) are investigated to determine if there is a relationship between faunal composition and pedofacies. This question is particularly important for the Willwood Formation because it records dramatic temporal changes in both faunal composition and pedofacies across the Paleocene Eocene boundary-an interval marked by pronounced global warming. To understand the underlying causes of these temporal patterns| it is important to know the degree to which pedofacies and faunal composition are linked. Two separate analyses are conducted to investigate the relationship between pedofacies and faunal composition. Analysis 1 evaluates faunal compositions of established localities that are stratigraphically adjacent but characterized by different mean pedofacies. Results indicate that faunal compositions of these localities are not related to pedofacies but instead correspond to differences in the estimated body masses of the taxa. Results of Analysis 2| which evaluates new paleosol-specific collections from the same stratigraphic interval| indicate that different pedofacies are characterized by nearly identical faunas. The only exception is lizards| which are significantly more abundant in mature paleosols. Environmental gradients on the ancient floodplain seem to have exerted very little control on faunal composition at this spatial scale| but size sorting may have been an important taphonomic process in these Willwood collections. 7139,2005,3,3,Evaluation of four kinds of nonthermal plasma reactor for abatement of perfluorocompounds,Perfluorocompounds (PFCs) are widely used in the semiconductor manufacturing industry as etching gases and chamber cleaning gases. However| PFCs intensely absorb infrared radiation and aggravates global warming consequently. This study applies nonthermal plasma technologies to destroy PFCs including CF4| C2F6| SF6| and NF3. Four kinds of nonthermal plasma reactors including dielectric barrier discharge (DBD)| packed-bed plasma (PBP)| tandem packed-bed plasma (TPBP)| and combined plasma catalysis (CPC) were constructed and tested. Experimental results indicated that higher oxygen and argon contents in the gas streams were beneficial to PFC abatement. For a single CPC reactor| the maximum removal efficiency achieved was 34%. The reduction requirement for semiconductor manufacturing (PFC abatement efficiency > 95%) could be accomplished by combining three CPC reactors in series. The maximum removal efficiency achieved and corresponding energy efficiency were both in the order of CPC > DBD > PBP > TPBP. Endproduct analysis indicated that CF4 was mainly converted into CO2| COF2| and CO. The selectivity of CO2 was in the trend of CPC > PBP > TPBP > DBD| being just reverse to the trend of COF2 selectivity. In general| CPC reactor performs with greater destruction efficiency| better energy utilization| and less hazardous products than the rest three reactors for PFC abatement. 6794,2005,3,3,Evaluation of indicators to assess the environmental impact of dairy production systems,Current awareness of environmental pollution of animal production in Western Europe has triggered research on development of environmental indicators at farm level. Only when the environmental impact of commercial farms can be quantified effectively| important differences in impact can be demonstrated among contrasting systems| which subsequently can contribute to reducing the environmental impact from animal production. Therefore| the aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of environmental indicators derived from three methods used widely in animal production| i.e.| input-output accounting| ecological footprint analysis and life cycle assessment (LCA). Evaluation of the effectiveness of indicators was based on an assessment of their relevance| quality and availability of data. Such a systematic evaluation of these environmental indicators has never been performed yet. To evaluate the effectiveness of the 13 environmental indicators| data from eight organic| commercial dairy farms in the Netherlands were used. Results show that indicators derived from input-output accounting are effective| because of their high relevance| good quality and easy availability of data. These indicators| however| do not include all environmental impact categories (e.g.| land use| energy use| global warming potential)| and focus on on-farm emission. The environmental indicator derived from ecological footprint analysis is not effective for land and fossil energy use| because of its limited relevance and low quality| whereas LCA resource-based indicators are effective because of their high relevance| good quality and availability of data. LCA indicators for global warming| acidification and eutrophication potential are effective also| because of their good relevance and good quality. Data of these LCA indicators are difficult to collect. To give a good insight into the environmental impact of a dairy production system| besides input-output accounting indicators| LCA indicators are required. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6858,2005,3,4,Evaluation of mixtures efficiency in refrigerating systems,The use of many common refrigerants is under restriction or phase out because of their high ODP (ozone depletion potential) or GWP (global warming potential). The regulations on environmentally acceptable substances are different from country to country and are subject to frequent updates. In our article| the following mixtures are under consideration: R-401B| R-401C| R-402A| R-404A| R-406A| R-408A| R-409A| R-410A| R-410B and R-507. Some of them do not have zero ODP| but they are in use due to their low ODP. We are focused on performance comparisons of these working fluids in vapor compression refrigerating cycles. Our effort was conducted on the basis of exergy aspects. Various parameters of the cycles were changed within a suitable range| and the results obtained were plotted in graphs of exergy efficiency factors or presented in Grassmann diagrams and tables. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7079,2005,2,4,Evaluation of usefulness of daily mean temperature studies on impact of climate change,The impact of global warming on rise in temperature in different regions has often been expressed as a change in mean temperature (T-mean). The recent results suggest that this change could be both in diurnal and interannual temperatures. Therefore it is important to assess the impact of diurnal variation with the same mean temperature on crop plants for understanding the impact of climate change on agriculture| and also assess the possibility of genetic variation in adaptation. The present study in wheat (Triticum aestivum) varieties examines the effect of varying T-max and T-min| while maintaining the same mean temperature on phenology| growth and productivity. The mean temperatures examined are 18 degrees C with T-max/T-min combination of 18/18| 20/16| 22/14 and 24/12 degrees C. These wheat varieties differed considerably in their response to varying T-max and T-min with respect to days to ear emergence| anthesis| biomass accumulation and grain yield. The wheat variety HD2329| a popular Mexican dwarf high yielding cultivar showed maximum adaptation in the temperature combinations examined. The results suggest the need to refine the crop ideotypes in the context of the changing global scenario. This may require detailed experimental studies on various phenological phases. Such studies would help in assessing genotypes which may be having adaptation and thus identify the potential donors for further improvement of crops. 7078,2005,2,4,Evolutionary and acclimation-induced variation in the thermal limits of heart function in congeneric marine snails (Genus Tegula): Implications for vertical zonation,y We analyzed the thermal limits of heart function for congeneric species of the marine snail Tegula that have different patterns of vertical zonation. T. funebralis is found in the low to mid-intertidal zone| and T. brunnea and T. montereyi live in the low-intertidal or subtidally. As indices of thermal limits of heart function| we used the temperature at which heart rate initially decreased rapidly during heating (the Arrhenius break temperature| or ABT) and the temperature at which heart ceased to beat with either heating or cooling (the flatline temperature| or FLThot or FLTcold| respectively). These three indices provide an estimate of the thermal range within which Tegula heart function is maintained. For field-acclimatized specimens| the thermal range of the high-intertidal T. funebralis was greater than those of its two lower-occurring congeners (higher ABT| higher FLThot lower FLTcold). We also demonstrated the effects of constant thermal acclimation on the heart rate response to heat stress. Acclimation to 14 degrees C and 22 degrees C resulted in increases in ABT and FLThot| with the largest changes in T. brunnea and T montereyi. Although T. funebralis is more heat tolerant and eurythermal than its two lower-occurring congeners| it can encounter field body temperatures that exceed ABT| indicating that T funebralis faces a larger threat from heat stress| in situ. These findings are consistent with recent studies on other taxa of marine invertebrates that have shown| somewhat paradoxically| that warm-adapted| eurythermal intertidal species may be more impacted by global warming than congeneric subtidal species that are less heat tolerant. 6790,2005,2,4,Expansion of geographic range in the pine processionary moth caused by increased winter temperatures,Global warming is predicted to cause distributional changes in organisms whose geographic ranges are controlled by temperature. We report a recent latitudinal and altitudinal expansion of the pine processionary moth| Thaumetopoea pityocampa| whose larvae build silk nests and feed on pine foliage in the winter. In north-central France (Paris Basin)| its range boundary. has shifted by 87 km northwards between 1972 and 2004; in northern Italy (Alps)| an altitudinal shift of 110-230 in upwards occurred between 1975 and 2004. By experimentally linking Winter temperature| feeding activity| and survival of T. pityocampa larvae| we attribute the expansions to increased winter survival due to a warming trend over the past three decades. In the laboratory we determined the minimum nest and night air temperatures required for larval feeding and developed a mechanistic model based on these temperature thresholds. We tested the model in a translocation experiment that employed natural temperature gradients as spatial analogues for global warming. In all transects we transferred colonies of T. pityocampa larvae to sites within zones of historical distribution| recent distribution| and outside the present range. We monitored air and nest temperature| incoming solar radiation| larval phenology| feeding activity| and survival. Early-season temperature effects on phenology were evident with delayed development of colonies in the more extreme (colder) sites. In the coldest months| our model was consistent With the observed patterns of feeding activity: Feeding was| progressively reduced with increasing latitude|or elevation| as predicted by the lower number of hours when the feeding threshold was reached| which negatively affected final survival. Insolation raised nest temperature and increased feeding activity on the south but not the north aspect. Prolonged temperature drops below the feeding thresholds occurred at all-sites| leading to starvation and partial mortality. Nonetheless| even the most extreme sites still allowed some feeding and| consequently| up to 20% colony survival and successful pupation. Given that the present distribution of the oligophagous T. pityocampa is not constrained by the distribution of its actual or potential hosts| and that warmer winters will cause the number of hours of feeding to increase and the probability of the lower lethal temperature to decrease| we expect the trend of improved survival in previously prohibitive environments to continue| causing further latitudinal and altitudinal expansion. This work highlights the need to develop temperature-based predictive models for future range shifts of winter-limited species| with potential applications in management. 7075,2005,4,5,Expected halt in the current global warming trend?,The variation patterns of global temperature were considerably turbulent from about 1870 up to 1940. Then just after 1940 these patterns underwent a sunspot-related change and adopted to relatively less turbulent variability. It is established here that these global temperature patterns are currently in the process of undergoing a sunspot-related change from the post-1940 relatively less turbulent variability back into relatively more turbulent variability. This apparently imminent state of more turbulent variability is expected to stop and at least slightly reverse the global warming trend| which has been going on since about 1965. Besides| it is shown separately that the mean of 'global mean temperature variations' reaches the next peak at about the year 2005 after which it will expectedly be on a decreasing trend. Finally| it is shown that| contrary to projections made in the Third IPCC Assessment Report| Greenland is currently in an ongoing cooling trend which is expected to last up to at least the year 2035. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
6782,2005,3,4,Experimental investigation of an adsorption desalination plant using low-temperature waste heat,Adsorption cycle is a practical and inexpensive method of desalinating the saline and brackish water to produce potable water for both industrial and residential applications. As compared with the commercial desalination methods| the adsorption technology has the unique advantages such as (i) the utilization of the low-temperature waste heat| (ii) low corrosion and fouling rates on the tube materials due to the low temperature evaporation of saline water| (iii) and it has almost no major moving parts which renders inherently low maintenance cost. In addition| the adsorption cycle offers two important benefits that are not available to the existing desalination technologies. namely| (i) a two-prong phenomenal barrier to any "bio-contamination" during the water generation process as compared with existing methods and (ii) the reduction in global warming due to the utilization of low-temperature waste heat which otherwise would have been purged to the atmosphere. This paper describes an experimental investigation and the specific water yields from a four-bed adsorption desalination plant is presented with respect to major assorted coolant and feed conditions. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 6781,2005,3,3,Experimental study on automotive cooling and heating air conditioning system using CO2 as a refrigerant,Recently| as one of the countermeasures against the global warming and energy conservation problems| natural refrigerants such as CO2 are now paid attention as substitutes for HFCs in automotive air conditioning systems. Also| in recent years because the heat release from the eco-car's engine decreases| there is a problem that the present automotive heating air conditioning system cannot provide sufficient heating capacity. As an alternative approach| we focused on a solution utilizing a CO2-based heat pump| whereby the waste heat from the heat pump cycle during dehumidification of the incoming air (referred to as the dehumidifying condition) is recovered and used as an auxiliary heat source instead of an electric heater. Based on this concept| we aimed to develop an effective automotive cooling and heating air conditioning system using CO2 as a refrigerant. As the result| a prototype CO2 automotive cooling and heating air conditioning system for medium-sized cars was successfully developed. With this system| performance superior to that of the present HFC134a system can be achieved. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 6885,2005,3,3,Extended probit mortality model for zooplankton against transient change Of PCO2,The direct injection of CO2 in the deep ocean is a promising way to mitigate global warming. One of the uncertainties in this method| however| is its impact on marine organisms in the near field. Since the concentration of CO2| which organisms experience in the ocean| changes with time| it is required to develop a biological impact model for the organisms against the unsteady change of CO2 concentration. In general| the LC50 concept is widely applied for testing a toxic agent for the acute mortality. Here| we regard the probit-transformed mortality as a linear function not only of the concentration Of CO2 but also of exposure time. A simple mathematical transform of the function gives a damage-accumulation mortality model for zooplankton. In this article| this model was validated by the mortality test of Metamphiascopsis hirsutus against the transient change of CO2 concentration. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 7054,2005,5,4,Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records,I constructed a temperature history for different parts of the world from 169 glacier length records. Using a first-order theory of glacier dynamics| I related changes in glacier length to changes in temperature. The derived temperature histories are fully independent of proxy and instrumental data used in earlier reconstructions. Moderate global warming started in the middle of the 19th century. The reconstructed warming in the first half of the 20th century is 0.5 kelvin. This warming was notably coherent over the globe. The warming signals from glaciers at low and high elevations appear to be very similar. 7192,2005,2,4,Extremes of ground-based and satellite measurements in the vegetation period for the Carpathian Basin,Decadal change in temperature and precipitation time series of the 20th century has been analyzed based on monthly climatological datasets for the Carpathian Basin. Beyond extreme value analysis of precipitation| variability and fluctuation properties have been determined. IPCC TAR suggests that the Carpathian Basin could become highly vulnerable to global warming. Our investigations support these findings| especially| in case of two subregions: (1) Great Hungarian Plain| (2) watershed of the Lake Balaton. Therefore detailed investigations have been carried out for these areas. Besides temperature and precipitation| potential agricultural activity can be characterized by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from remote measurements of NOAA satellites (1981-2001). In our investigations NDVI values for the European continent and the Carpathian Basin have been statistically analyzed during the last two decades. Variation analysis focus on month-by-month fluctuations and possible tendencies. Annual maximum and minimum NDVI fields have been determined for both areas. Then| we have focused on systematic changes of NDVI both in the Carpathian Basin and the entire European region. The main objectives of our research include detailed analysis of regions in these areas| whether or not local consequences of the global climate warming can be detected. Therefore| tendencies in NDVI time series have been analyzed for selected subregions comparing different type of lands| especially hilly and plain areas. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7183,2005,3,3,Facilities management system that reduces environmental burden of buildings,In recent years| the problem of global warming has become serious| and it has become an important challenge for architects to reduce the environmental burden of buildings. In response| Fujitsu has developed facilities management systems called Futuric that make buildings safer and more comfortable by collecting information about equipment in buildings and then making it available for management and control purposes. Lately| however| more importance has been attached to reducing environmental burden by providing energy-conservation functions for entire buildings. The Futuric facilities management systems have various energy conservation functions in their building energy and environment management systems (BEMSs) to support environmental burden reduction. This paper introduces the Futuric systems and describes how they help reduce a building's environmental burden using an example introduction in an office building.
6800,2005,2,4,Factors affecting the dynamics of the population of Fagus crenata in the Takakuma Mountains| the southern limit of its distribution area,The refugee population of Fagus crenata in the Takakuma Mountains| Kyushu| Japan| represents the southern limit of this species' distribution area. Because this population is the most exposed to the global warming effect| records of this population are likely to provide useful information on the response of this species to global warming. The aim of this study was to record the present status of this valuable population| enabling judgment of its sustainability. The density of successive F crenata trees and saplings was low regardless of the coverage of dwarf bamboo. Moreover| the proportion of empty nuts observed was considerably high| suggesting to be the likely major factor limiting recruitment of saplings or successors in this population. Radial growth of F crenata was shown to have been decreasing for the past 50 years| and there was a significantly negative correlation with the warmth index. The decreasing growth rate and poor regenerative ability caused by the high proportion of empty nuts suggest the possibility that this population will degrade further in the future| possibly being replaced by shrubs and small tree species. 7158,2005,3,4,Factors influencing methane emission from peat soils: Comparison of tropical and temperate wetlands,Methane (CH4) emissions from peat soils in tropical and temperate wetlands were compared. Annual CH4 emission rates in Ozegahara| the largest wetland on Honshu main island| Japan| were higher than in drained forest wetland areas examined in Indonesia. Methane emissions from the lowland paddy fields examined in Indonesia were higher than those of peaty paddy fields in Japan. There was generally a positive correlation (r(2) = 0.09; P < 0.1) between CH4 emissions and CH4 production activities in wetland soils. In Ozegahara| there was a positive relationship (r(2) = 0.80; P < 0.01) between CH4 production activities and soil pH| but there was no such relationship in Indonesia. The range of soil pH in Ozegahara was 5-7| while pH values in the Indonesian sites were lower than 5. There was a positive response of CH4 emission with respect to groundwater level in all of these areas. In Indonesia| land-use change from swamp and drained forest to cassava or coconut field lowered groundwater levels and decreased CH4 emission| while change to lowland paddy raised the groundwater level and increased CH| emission. Addition of acetate generally inhibited CH4 production during the early period (until 2 weeks) of incubation| then enhanced it afterward in both Ozegahara and Indonesian wetland soils. Addition of hydrogen mostly enhanced CH4 production. From the results of this study| CH4 fluxes from peat soil to the atmosphere were positively correlated with CH4 production activities| and CH4 production activity in peat soil was regulated by soil pH| while land-use change from wetland to upland crop lowered groundwater level and thus reduced CH4 production and enhanced CH4 oxidation. 1780,2005,4,4,Fates of eroded soil organic carbon: Mississippi basin case study,We have developed a mass balance analysis of organic carbon (OC) across the five major river subsystems of the Mississippi (MS) Basin (an area of 3.2 X 10(6) km(2)) This largely agricultural landscape undergoes a bulk soil erosion rate of similar to 480 t center dot km(-2)center dot yr(-1) (similar to 1500 x 10(6) t/yr| across the MS Basin)| and a|soil organic carbon (SOC) erosion rate of similar to 7 t center dot km(-2 center dot)yr(-1) (similar to 22 x 10(6) t/yr). Erosion translocates upland SOC to alluvial deposits| water impoundments| and the ocean. Soil erosion is generally considered to be a net source of CO(2) release to the atmosphere in global budgets. However| our results indicate that SOC erosion and relocation of soil apparently can reduce the net SOC oxidation rate of the original upland SOC while promoting neu replacement of eroded SOC in upland soils that were eroded. Soil erosion at the MS Basin scale is| therefore| a net CO(2) sink rather than a source. 6934,2005,3,3,Fault diagnosis and refrigerant leak detection in vapour compression refrigeration systems,The environmental impact of refrigeration systems can be reduced by operation at higher efficiency and reduction of refrigerant leakage. Refrigerant loss contributes both directly and indirectly to global warming through inefficient system operation| increased power consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and higher maintenance costs. Existing sensor-based leak detection methods are limited by the inability to detect gradual leakage and the need for careful sensor location. There is a requirement for a real-time performance monitoring approach to leak detection and fault diagnosis which overcomes these disadvantages. This paper reports on the development of a fault diagnosis and refrigerant leak detection system based on artificial intelligence and real-time performance monitoring. The system has been used successfully to distinguish between faulty and fault free operation| steady-state and transient operation| leakage and over charge conditions. Work currently underway is aimed at testing additional fault conditions and establishing further rules to distinguish between these patterns. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 6827,2005,3,4,Field-project designs for carbon dioxide sequestration and enhanced coalbed methane production,Worldwide concerns about global warming and possible contributions to it from anthropogenic carbon dioxide have become important during the past several years. Coal seams may make excellent candidates for CO2 sequestration; coal-seam sequestration could enhance methane production and improve sequestration economics. Reservoir-simulation computations are an important component of any engineering design before carbon dioxide is injected underground. We have performed such simulations for a hypothetical pilot-scale project in representative coal seams. In these simulations we assume four horizontal production wells that form a square| that is| two wells drilled at right angles to each other forming two sides of a square| with another pair of horizontal wells similarly drilled to form the other two sides. Four shorter horizontal wells are drilled from a vertical well at the center of the square| forming two straight lines orthogonal to each other. By modifying coal properties| especially sorption rate| we have approximated different types of coals. By varying operational parameters| such as injector length| injection well pressure| time to injection| and production well pressure| we can evaluate different production schemes to determine an optimum for each coal type. Amy optimization requires considering a tradeoff between total CO2 sequestered and the rate of methane production. Values of total CO2 sequestered and methane produced are presented for multiple coal types and different operational designs. 1787,2005,2,4,Fine-scale predictions of distributions of Chagas disease vectors in the state of Guanajuato| Mexico,One of the most daunting challenges for Chagas disease surveillance and control in Mexico is the lack of community level data on vector distributions. Although many states now have assembled representative domestic triatomine collections| only two triatomine specimens bad been collected and reported previously from the state of Guanajuato. Field personnel from the state's Secretaria de Salud conducted health promotion activities in 43 of the 46 counties in the state and received donations of a total of 2|522 triatomine specimens between 1998 and 2002. All specimens were identified| and live insects examined for Trypanosoma cruzi. In an effort to develop fine-scale distributional data for Guanajuato| collection localities were georeferenced and ecological niches were modeled for each species by using evolutionary-computing approaches. Five species were collected: Triatoma mexicana (Herrich-Schaeffer)| Triatoma longipennis (Usinger)| Triatoma pallidipennis (Stal)| Triatoma barberi (Usinger)| and Triatoma dimidiata (Latreille) from 201 communities located at elevations of 870 - 2|200 m. Based on collection success| T mexicana had the broadest dispersion| although niche mapping indicates that T barberi represents the greatest risk for transmission of Chagas disease in the state. T dimidiata was represented in collections by a single adult collected from one village outside the predicted area for all species. For humans| In estimated 3|755|380 individuals are at risk for vector transmission in the state| with an incidence of 3|500 new cases per year; overall seroprevalences of 2.6% indicate that 97|640 individuals are infected with T cruzi at present| including 29|300 chronic cases. 1792,2005,2,2,Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change,We find that extreme temperature and precipitation events are likely to respond substantially to anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse forcing and that fine-scale climate system modifiers are likely to play a critical role in the net response. At present| such events impact a wide variety of natural and human systems| and future changes in their frequency and/or magnitude could have dramatic ecological| economic| and sociological consequences. Our results indicate that fine-scale snow albedo effects influence the response of both hot and cold events and that peak increases in extreme hot events are amplified by surface moisture feedbacks. Likewise| we find that extreme precipitation is enhanced on the lee side of rain shadows and over coastal areas dominated by convective precipitation. We project substantial| spatially heterogeneous increases in both hot and wet events over the contiguous United States by the end of the next century| suggesting that consideration of fine-scale processes is critical for accurate assessment of local- and regional-scale vulnerability to climate change. 6981,2005,5,3,Fire cycles in North American interior grasslands and their relation to prairie drought,High-resolution analyses of a late Holocene core from Kettle Lake in North Dakota reveal coeval fluctuations in loss-on-ignition carbonate content| percentage of grass pollen| and charcoal flux. These oscillations are indicative of climate-fuel-fire cycles that have prevailed on the Northern Great Plains (NGP) for most of the late Holocene. High charcoal flux occurred during past moist intervals when grass cover was extensive and fuel loads were high| whereas reduced charcoal flux characterized the intervening droughts when grass cover| and hence fuel loads| decreased| illustrating that fire is not a universal feature of the NGP through time but oscillates with climate. Spectral and wavelet analyses reveal that the cycles have a periodicity of approximate to 160 yr| although secular trends in the cycles are difficult to identify for the entire Holocene because the periodicity in the early Holocene ranged between 80 and 160 yr. Although the cycles are evident for most of the last 4|500 yr| their occasional muting adds further to the overall climatic complexity of the plains. These findings clearly show that the continental interior of North America has experienced short-term climatic cycles accompanied by a marked landscape response for several millennia| regularly alternating between dual landscape modes. The documentation of cycles of similar duration at other sites in the NGP| western North America and Greenland suggests some degree of regional coherence to climatic forcing. Accordingly| the effects of global warming from increasing greenhouse gases will be superimposed on this natural variability of drought. 1839,2005,4,4,Fire in African savanna: Testing the impact of incomplete combustion on pyrogenic emissions estimates,African savannah fires are key sources of trace gases and aerosols| yet their true magnitude remains relatively poorly constrained. Here we present a detailed investigation of the amount of unburned material remaining in the ash produced by such fires| and examine whether this quantity needs to be considered when calculating atmospheric emissions. Emissions estimates for individual fires are usually based upon a calculation of the amount of fuel biomass combusted| usually estimated via a "simple subtraction" of the pre- and post-fire fuel loads. However| certain studies have concluded that this approach leads to gross overestimation of emissions| by perhaps 100%| due to the fact that a proportion of unburned fuel normally remains in the "charred" ash and that the simple subtraction method fails to take this fully into account. Whilst this latter point is true| we show that the mathematical relationship used previously to calculate the implications of this for emissions calculation is flawed. We demonstrate a new first-principles derivation of the quantity of mass combusted| taking into account any fuel remaining in the ash via measurement of ash mass loss on ignition (LOI). Using data from dry-season experimental fires in Botswana| we compared estimates of biomass combusted calculated via our LOI-based method to those obtained via the simple subtraction approach. We found a mean difference of < 10%| far less than the factor of 2 difference obtained when using the previous erroneous formula. Similar results are obtained for carbon and nitrogen emissions| and the findings are further supported by reassessment of previous data from early-to-mid-dry season savanna fires in Tanzania. These results indicate that the simple subtraction method overestimates emissions by far less than previously suggested| and that the method is likely to provide sufficient accuracy in most situations where emissions calculations are required. For fires where very substantial amounts of unburned material are expected to remain within the ash| and where an LOI-based approach to emissions calculation may therefore be particularly warranted| it is important that the correct formula derived herein is used| since errors inherent in the previous formula increase with increasing ash LOI. 1873,2005,2,4,Fish use and size of eelgrass meadows in southeastern Alaska: A baseline for long-term assessment of biotic change,Eelgrass meadows at six sites in southeastern Alaska were sampled for fish assemblages and mapped to establish a baseline of information for long-term assessment of biotic change. All sites were sampled in spring 2001| 2002| and 2003: four of the sites were also sampled in winter 2003. A total of 44 seine hauls from all sampling periods yielded 58|902 fish comprising 45 species. Fish abundance in spring differed significantly among sites but not among years. The most abundant commercially important or forage fish species captured were chum salmon| Pacific herring. pink salmon| coho salmon| and Pacific sand lance: mean size of each of these species was <= 100 mm FL. For those sites sampled seasonally in 2003| fish were significantly more abundant in spring than in winter. At each site| three different species accounted for most (>= 69%) of the total catch. Size of eelgrass meadows varied annually; maximum percent change in area ranged from -13% to +27%. Eelgrass density ranged from 336 shoots/m(2) to 1|544 shoots/m(2)| and dry biomass ranged from 36 g/m(2) to 71 g/m(2). Periodic re-sampling of the eelgrass sites established in this study will allow resource managers to track long-term and large-scale changes in fish communities and habitat that may result from shoreline development or global climate change. 7167,2005,2,4,Flood management under climatic variability and its future perspective in Japan,Devastating magnitudes of flood disasters have been occurring in various areas of Japan| and their impact has been increasing in recent years. Looking ahead| it is foreseen that rainfall and its patterns will be altered due to the climate change accompanied by global warming| and there is concern that the intensity and frequency of flood disasters might be exacerbated. This paper aims to introduce flood characteristics and management policies in Japan that have been undertaken for a long time in order to mitigate these recurrent flood disasters. It also highlights extremely devastating floods in some areas that occurred under recent climate variability| and to address the progress in the assessment of hydro-meteorological tendencies and in the promotion of dialogue among climatologists and hydrologists. Lastly| a new initiative to establish an international centre on water-related hazards and its risk management is presented. 1782,2005,2,4,Flood risk| uncertainty| and scientific information for decision making - Lessons from an interdisciplinary project,The magnitude of flood damage in the United States| combined with the uncertainty in current estimates of flood risk| suggest that society could benefit from improved scientific information about flood risk. To help address this perceived need| a group of researchers initiated an interdisciplinary study of climate variability| scientific uncertainty| and hydrometeorological information for flood-risk decision making| focused on Colorado's Rocky Mountain Front Range urban corridor. We began by investigating scientific research directions that were likely to benefit flood-risk estimation and management| through consultation with climatologists| hydrologists| engineers| and planners. In doing so| we identified several challenges involved in generating new scientific information to aid flood management in the presence of significant scientific and societal uncertainty. This essay presents lessons learned from this study| along with our observations on the complex interactions among scientific information| uncertainty| and societal decision making. It closes by proposing a modification to the "end to end" approach to conducting societally relevant scientific research. Although we illustrate points using examples from flood management| the concepts may be applicable to other arenas| such as global climate change. 1836,2005,2,4,Forecasting climate change effects on salamander distribution in the highlands of central Mexico,A generalized decline of amphibian populations is occurring worldwide. The causes for such a decline are not completely understood; however| climate change has been identified as a possible cause for amphibian extinction| among others. Ecological niche modeling has proven to be a useful tool to predict potential distribution of species in the context of climatic changes. In this paper| we used the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) to model the potential distributions of two species of plethodontid salamanders: Pseudoeurycea cephalica and P leprosa. We projected their potential distributions under climatic scenarios expected in 50 yr based on a conservative scenario of global climate change and assuming a moderate dispersal ability for both species. Our analyses suggest that climate change effects may pose an additional long-term risk to both species of plethodontid salamanders| with a more dramatic scenario in the case of P leprosa. By the year 2050| this species may lose almost 75 percent of its distributional area| and this projection is even worse when deforestation (in the way it is occurring at present) is considered within the predicted model. Our results concur with those obtained for species with limited dispersal capability because they do not track changing climates| but rather face a loss of distributional area. The survival of these species is not secure| even though their potential distributional area falls within a considerable number of natural protected areas. 7170,2005,2,4,Formation condition and distribution prediction of gas hydrate in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost,Permafrost is one of major geological environments for gas hydrate occurrences. Mean altitude is over 4000m and the permafrost area is about 1.4 x 10(6)km(2) in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on the thickness of frozen layer and thermal gradient in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost| the occurrence and distribution of gas hydrate in the low-middle latitude and high altitude permafrost is predicted by using the thermodynamic method of natural gas hydrate stable temperature and pressure. The thermodynamic phase equilibrium of thermogenic and biogenic gas hydrate imply that gas hydrate is buried in depth from similar to 27 to similar to 2070m| and the resource potential of natural gases caged in hydrates are estimated as about 1.2 x 10(11) to 2.4 x 10(14)m(3) in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost. Gas hydrate is propitious to occur where the frozen layer is thicker and thermal gradient is lower in the permafrost. Seasonal change of air temperature in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau affects only the uppermost sediments 10m and does not affect gas hydrate that is buried below 30m. Under the global warming| gas hydrate will be unstable and degrade in the permafrost. Its distribution area will be gradually reduced and finally disappear in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost. 7118,2005,2,4,Forty-five years of observed soil moisture in the Ukraine: No summer desiccation (yet),[1] We present the longest data set of observed soil moisture available in the world| 45 yr of gravimetrically-observed plant available soil moisture for the top 1 m of soil| observed every 10 days for April-October for 141 stations from fields with either winter or spring cereals from the Ukraine for 1958-2002. We averaged the summer observations over the entire region to account for the observed scale of soil moisture variations| to enhance the portion of the variance that is related to meteorological forcing. The observations show a positive soil moisture trend for the entire period of observation| with the trend leveling off in the last two decades. Although models of global warming predict summer desiccation in a greenhouse-warmed world| there is no evidence for this in the observations yet| even though the region has been warming for the entire period. While the interannual variations of soil moisture simulated by both the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Prediction and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalyses are close to the observations| neither reanalysis simulates the observed upward trend. Climate model simulations for the period show the same general shape as the observations| but differ quite a bit from each other and from the observations. An observed downward trend in insolation may have produced a downward trend in evaporation and may have contributed to the upward soil moisture trend. 6843,2005,3,2,Fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions in Korea: NEAT approach,Carbon accounting is a key issue in the discussions on global warming/CO2 mitigation. This paper applies both the intergovernmental panel on climate change-reference approach (IPCC-RA) and the non-energy use emission accounting tables (NEAT) model| a material flow analysis| to estimate the carbon storage originating from the non-energy use as to assess the carbon release from the use of fossil fuels in Korea for the years 1999 and 2000. The current Korean carbon accounting seems to overestimate the carbon storage and to concomitantly underestimate CO2 emissions. This is because the gross naphtha deliveries are currently considered as feedstock use. The estimation after correction of the non-energy use statistics shows| however| that the carbon storage calculated according to the IPCC-RA are lower than those calculated using the NEAT model. This is because the IPCC default storage fraction for naphtha used in Korea seems to be too low for the Korean petrochemical production structure. A by-product of this study is the identification of a double counting of naphtha consumption in the amount of the backflows to refineries in the Korean energy balance which led to a four-year project to revise the energy balances back to 1990. This paper shows that a material flow analysis like the NEAT model can provide a better basis for estimation Of CO2 emissions of the non-energy use and with it that of the fossil fuel use than the current IPCC-RA. The NEAT model can be used as an independent emission calculation tool to verify the IPCC-RA and IPCC-SA as well as to replace them. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1776,2005,3,3,Fossil fuels in the 21st century,An overview of the importance of fossil fuels in supplying the energy requirements of the 21st century| their future supply| and the impact of their use on global climate is presented. Current and potential alternative energy sources are considered. It is concluded that even with substantial increases in energy derived from other sources| fossil fuels will remain a major energy source for much Of the 21st century and the sequestration of CO2 will be an increasingly important requirement. 1913,2005,2,4,Four new species of Lobulia (Lacertilia : Scincidae) from high altitude in New Guinea,Four new species of scincid lizards in the genus Lobulia are described from high elevations (>= 2350 m) in New Guinea. Some of the features that may permit these skinks to live at high elevation are: dark color pattern| "tinted" lower eyelids and live-bearing reproductive mode. All of the species may be threatened by global climate warming. The generic concept of Lobulia is discussed and a key to the species provided. 1784,2005,5,4,From regional to global dynamics structure of the climatic proxy,Global change science is a new research domain nowadays| and one of the most important studies of which is the climate change|to which great attention is paid by all governments in world. It is mainly based on the climatic proxy that we can study the past climate change. Although many achievements have been obtained| majority of the results are limited to the external characteristics of the proxy due to lagged analysis methods. For example| we judge if the climate is flood/drought or cold/warm through linear trend of the time series| however| we do not know whether it is a natural variation or the result of external forces| the mechanism is not uncovered. Because complexity of the open global climate system| there are different characteristics among the climatic proxies from different region of the world| from which it is difficult to reveal the intrinsic general principles i.e. the globality. For the further study on the past climate change| especially to reveal the rules of the global climate change in past 2000a and predict future climate change| a new method making use of the dynamical lag correlation exponent (named Q index in the text)| a dynamics exponent based on the phase-space reconstruction| is introduced in this paper| which can effectively discern the similarities or differences between the dynamics of the two series. With Q index| we analyze the dynamics structure of some typical climatic proxies. The results show that the dynamics of climatic proxies are almost similar| and the regional climate keeps the same change with the global. In other words| regional climate is controlled by the global climate change. Besides| there are two dynamics jump periods (namely 700-900a and 1300-1700a) in past 2000a of the climate system| which may correspond to the periods of the medieval warm period and the little ice age| respectively. 7014,2005,2,4,Frost resistance of the New Zealand narrow-leaved snow tussock grass| Chionochloa rigida,The frost resistance of tillers of Chionochloa rigida was measured at various dates and locations from late winter (August 2004) to early summer (December 2004). Frost resistance changed in accord with season| geographic location| and position on the tiller and was strongly related to estimated minimum temperatures at the date and site of collection. Foliar frost resistance was -21 degrees C in late winter and -10 degrees C in summer; leaf sheaths and bases were less frost resistance than laminas. The strong dependence on temperature suggests that the frost resistance of C. rigida would adjust to prevailing temperatures during a period of global warming| although it might render C. rigida more susceptible to episodic frosts. On a global scale| C. rigida is less frost resistant than many temperate pasture grasses and cereals and shows some affinity with tropical alpine vegetation. 7175,2005,2,4,Function of long basal dehiscence of the theca in rice (Oryza sativa L.) pollination under hot and humid condition,MATSUI T. 2005. Function of long basal dehiscence of the theca in rice (Oryza sativa L.) pollination under hot and humid condition. - Phyton (Horn| Austria) 45 (4): (401)-(407). Anticipated global warming is expected to increase floret sterility in rice (Oryza sativa L.). For selection of-genotypes tolerant to high temperatures during the flowering period| it is important to identify the morphological traits controlling tolerance to temperature stress. We investigated the relationship between the length of dehiscence at the basal part of thecae and the viability of pollination in japonica type cultivars of rice subjected to a hot and humid condition (37/25 degrees C| day/night| > 90% relative humidity) for three days at flowering. Control plants were left under the ambient conditions in a semi-cylindrical house covered with cheesecloth (30% shading; temperature range: 24-35 degrees C). The length of basal dehiscence of thecae and the number of pollen grains on the stigmata were examined with a light microscope after flowering. The percentage of florets with more than 20 pollen grains closely correlated with the length of basal dehiscence under the high-temperature treatment (r = 0.906| significant| P < 0.0001) and the percentage of florets with more than 80 pollen grains correlated with the length of the basal dehiscence of thecae under the control condition (r = 0.745| significant| P < 0.01). The length of basal dehiscence under the high-temperature treatment was highly correlated with that in the control (r = 0.911| significant| P < 0.0001). We concluded that the long basal dehiscence of the theca helps the pollen grains to fall from the theca onto the stigmata and increases the stability of the pollination under hot and humid conditions as well as normal conditions. We also concluded that we can estimate the tolerance of the variety to high temperature by measuring the basal dehiscence under a normal condition. 6961,2005,4,3,Future projections of precipitation characteristics in East Asia simulated by the MRI CGCM2,Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21st century and end-of-the-century axe analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-member ensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe| while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a few percent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the rest of the globe (about one third)| the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases| suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. South China is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone| which may be related with an El Nino-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand| a decrease in summer precipitation is noted in North China| thus augmenting a south-to-north precipitation contrast more in the future. 6744,2005,2,3,Future tropospheric ozone simulated with a climate-chemistry-biosphere model,A climate-chemistry model and a biogenic emission model are used to investigate the relative impact of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and global warming on the evolution of ozone in 2100. A warmer and wetter climate leads to enhanced ozone photochemical destruction in the lower troposphere| a more intense Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere and a lightning NO(x) emission increased from 5 to 7.5 Tg(N)/yr. Over Europe and the eastern US climate change locally causes surface ozone to increase because of enhanced PAN thermal decomposition and more stagnant meteorological conditions. The global and annual mean OH concentration remains quite stable and the methane lifetime is unchanged in the future. Increased biogenic emissions contribute by 30-50% to surface ozone summer formation in northern continental regions. The feedback of climate change and of biogenic emissions increases the 2000 to 2100 tropospheric ozone radiative forcing by 12%| up to a global mean value of 0.58 Wm(-2). 1866,2005,2,3,Gaia's breath - global methane exhalations,Methane (CH4) is the most abundant organic compound in the Earth's atmosphere| where it acts as a greenhouse gas and thus has implications for global climate change. The current atmospheric CH4 budget| however| does not take into account geologically-sourced CH4 seepage. Geological sources of CH4 include natural macro- and micro-seeps| mud volcanoes| and other miscellaneous sources such as gas hydrates| magmatic volcanoes| geothermal regions| and mid-ocean ridges. Macro-seeps contribute similar to 25 Tg (teragrams) CH4/yr to the atmosphere| whereas| micro-seepage contributes perhaps 7 Tg CH4/yr. Mud volcanoes emit similar to 5 Tg CH4/yr| and miscellaneous sources emit similar to 8 Tg CH4/yr to the atmosphere. Thus| the total contribution to the atmosphere from geological sources is estimated to be 45 Tg CH4/yr| which is significant to the atmospheric organic carbon cycle and should be included in any global inventory of atmospheric CH4. We argue that the atmospheric CH4 global inventory of the Interplanetary Panel on Climate Change must be adjusted in order to incorporate geologically-sourced CH4 from naturally occurring seepage. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 6923,2005,4,4,Gas fired combined cycle plant in Singapore: energy use| GWP and cost - a life cycle approach,A life cycle assessment was performed to quantify the non-renewable (fossil) energy use and global warming potential (GWP) in electricity generation from a typical gas fired combined cycle power plant in Singapore. The cost of electricity generation was estimated using a life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) tool. The life cycle assessment (LCA) of a 367.5 MW gas fired combined cycle power plant operating in Singapore revealed that hidden processes consume about 8% additional energy in addition to the fuel embedded energy| and the hidden GWP is about 18%. The natural gas consumed during the operational phase accounted for 82% of the life cycle cost of electricity generation. An empirical relation between plant efficiency and life cycle energy use and GWP in addition to a scenario for electricity cost with varying gas prices and plant efficiency have been established. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6793,2005,3,3,Gaseous emissions from composting bark/manure mixtures,About 25 in 3 of a poplar bark-poultry dung mixture were composted in a covered place with natural ventilation| air entering the lower part and going out through four shafts in the upper part. The gaseous emissions were measured and analyzed. The first heap (initial C / N of 28) was monitored for one month| then turned and more dung added. The second heap (initial C / N of 8) was monitored for seven months with two intermediate turnings. For the whole experiment| N losses were estimated at 61-74% of initial N| of which 62% was lost as NH3 (38-46% of initial N) and 1% as N2O (0.6-0.7% of initial N). N-NOx losses were 1000 times lower than N-NH3 losses. N2O and NO X were found only at the end of the periods before the piles were turned. As for carbon| C-CO2 emissions were estimated at 45-55% of initial C content| the ratio of CH4 to CO in the effluent air was 1 to 100 on average| with significant variations. The global warming potential of CH4 and N2O was estimated at respectively 25% and 50% of total CO2 emissions. N-NH3 losses need to be considerably reduced by maintaining a higher C / N ratio with available carbon. The method described here was less restricting and less costly than continuous monitoring| and its degree of precision was about 25%. It required that the naturally-ventilated composting box itself be covered to reduce the effects of climatic variations| and that the ventilation be sufficient to ensure that the composting process was not disturbed. 7187,2005,3,4,Gaseous fluxes from subsurface flow constructed wetlands for wastewater treatment,We measured nitrous oxide (N2O)| dinitrogen (N-2) and methane (CH4) fluxes in two constructed wetlands (CW) in Estonia using the closed chamber method and the He-O method in the period from October 2000 to March 2003. Emission rates of N2O-N| N-2-N and CH4-C from both CWs varied significantly on a both spatial and temporal scale| ranging from 1 to 2|600| 170 to 130|000| and -1.7 to 87|200 mu g m(-2) h(-1) respectively. The average flux of N2O from the microsites in the Kodijarve horizontal subsurface flow (HSSF) CW and Koo hybrid CW ranged from 27 to 370 and from 72 to 500 mu g N2O-N m(-2) h(-1)| respectively| whereas the average dinitrogen flux from the microsites in the HSSF CW in Kodijarve was 2-3 magnitudes higher than the N2O flux| ranging from 19|500 to 33|300 mu g N-2-N m(-2) h(-1). The average methane emissions from the microsites in the Kodijarve HSSF CW and the Koo hybrid CW ranged from 31 to 12|100 and from 950 to 5|750 mu g CH4-C m(-2) h(-1)| respectively. The highest emission values for all three gases were observed in the warm period. There was a significant relationship between emission rates and water table depth: CH4 and N-2 emission increased and N2O emission decreased when the water table did rise. Although the emission of N2O and CH4 from CWs was found to be relatively high| their global warming potential (GWP) in the time horizon of 100 years is not significant| ranging from 4.5 to 16.3 tonnes Of CO2 equivalents per ha per year in Kodijarve and from 12.1 to 17.3 t CO2 equivalents ha(-1) yr(-1) in Koo. 6898,2005,5,4,Genesis of an endoreic piezometric coastal depression in sub-Sahelian Western Africa: the Continental Terminal Aquifer of Trarza (Mauritania).,Despite its capital importance| the genesis of endoreic water table depressions in Western sub-Sahelian Africa is not well known yet. It is the case of the Trarza Aquifer| which is the main resource of drinkable water for Nouakchott. While water needs are growing steadily| global warming is threatening this resource. The genesis of piezometric depression is the object of this study| which analyses it in the light of the hydrochemistry of the western border of the Trarza aquifer| which is located in proximity of the Atlantic Ocean and its salt wedge. The hydrochemical facies of groundwater in the Idini pumping site| 60 km East of Nouakchott| and that of a Nouakchott to the Senegal River transect| should be categorised into 3 groups: 1) chloro-sulfated 2) sulfato-chlorinated and chloro-bicarbonated. Such facies| which are also sodocalcic| indicate that mineralization is of mixed origin (marine and continental). After reviewing the main mathematical models for piezometric depression| the present study attempts a conceptualization of the piezometric evolution of this phreatic aquifer (Continental Terminal) during the Quaternary. It highlights the dominant role of evaporation in the evolution of the water table of the Trarza aquifer| whose impact is similar to the one of the Quaternary marine level increase. (c) 2005 Lavoisier SAS. All rights reserved. 1914,2005,2,4,Genetic diversity and regional identity in the Australian remnant Nothofagus moorei,Nothofagus moorei (F. Muell.) Krasser has a disjunct and narrow distribution in south-eastern Australian cool temperate rainforest. To assess the conservation-genetic priorities for this species| the genetic diversity of 20 populations sampled from the largest remnant patches at northern and southern distributional extremes| the McPherson and Barrington ranges (a total of 146 individuals)| was investigated by using inter simple sequence repeats (ISSR). Regeneration in northern regions of N. moorei has been documented to be predominantly by vegetative means| but our results indicate little evidence of clonality outside the multi-stemmed rings of trees. In addition| genetic diversity was considerably higher in the northern (McPherson| h = 0.1613) than in the southern range (Barrington| h = 0.1159)| and genetic differentiation was significantly positively correlated with geographic distance in the former region| but not the latter. Total intraspecific variation was moderate| as measured by Shannon's diversity index| I = 0.2719| and Nei's gene diversity| h = 0.1672| and is considered at the high end of spectrum for estimates of narrow endemic species. An analysis of molecular variation indicated that the majority of genetic variation is partitioned among individuals within population (60%; P < 0.001)| rather than among populations within regions (10%; P < 0.001). However| a large and significant component of the measured diversity was partitioned between northern and southern regions (29%; P < 0.001). Several hypotheses are outlined to explain these differences and management implications are discussed. However| given the narrow range| poor dispersal mechanism and restriction to cool temperate rainforest| the continued existence of N. moorei is most threatened by environmental instability and habitat loss resulting from global climate change. In this context the northern regions of the species are most at risk and extinction of such populations would lead to a significant loss of genetic variation for the species as a whole. 7047,2005,4,4,Genetics of a butterfly relocation: large| small and introduced populations of the mountain endemic Erebia epiphron silesiana,Species specific levels of genetic diversity are necessary for the viability of populations. Erebia epiphron (Lepidoptera: Satyrinae) is a relic species in the Sudetan Mountains| Czech Republic. These populations represent a suitable study object to test the population genetic effects of large| small and introduced populations by means of allozyme electrophoresis. A large continuous and viable population (>100|000 individuals) shows a significantly higher genetic diversity than a small isolated and declining population (ca. 5000 individuals)| which most probably was founded during the Little Ice Age in the 17th and 18th centuries and became isolated afterwards. In 1932 and 1933| 50 females were transferred from the large population to the Krkonose Mountains| where they established a viable and quickly expanding population. The number of transferred individuals was sufficient to transfer most of the allozyme diversity of the large natural population. Due to the higher elevation of the Krkonose in comparison to the native range| this allocation might safeguard the survival of the Czech race of E epiphron even under conditions of global warming. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
6799,2005,3,4,Geomorphology - key regulator of net methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from the pedosphere,The scientific Global Change debate is hampered by the insufficient knowledge of "greenhouse gas" fluxes. Thereby| extrapolations of global warming potentials of soil derived trace gas fluxes arc sources of greatest uncertainties. At single ecosystems gas fluxes still show highly variable thus hardly predictable fluxes. Our main thesis was that geomorphology helps to explain much of the variability even at this detailed scale| i.e. under rather uniform ecological condition as seen from the surface. This thesis was tested at a site in Wildmooswald (Black Forest/SW-Germany) where recently soil individual fluxes were identified| but not the cause of the formation of such diverse and mainly hydromorphic pedosphere. The idea was that the periglacial slope deposits including a water-logging layer form a more complex relief than the present rather uniform relief. Thus explaining the diverging sod water and gas balances. The water-logging layer was mapped by a regular auger grid (25 X 20 m). The Global Warming Potential (CH4| N2O) was calculated by gas specific warming potential and area proportion of each soil type. Upper and lower relied were not congruent| thus the relief of periglacial slope deposits is explaining the spatial variability of N2O and CH4 emissions. The study field emitted 1|059 kg of CO2 equivalents ha a(-1) in average| whereas most estimates not considering the spatial distribution of the puriglacial slope deposits would be around 355 kg not capable of explaining measured high spatial variability. 7131,2005,2,4,Glacial Fluctuation and Vegetation Succession on Tyndall Glacier| Mt Kenya,Dramatic changes are taking place in the glacier-covered high mountains of Africa. The glacial area on Mt Kilimanjaro is now only half as large as it was in the 1970s. The Tyndall Glacier on Mt Kenya| which retreated at approximately 3 m/yr from 1958 to 1997| retreated at about 10 m/yr from 1997 to 2002. Pioneer species such as Senecio keniophytum| Arabis alpina| mosses| lichen| and Agrostis trachyphylla have advanced over areas formerly covered by the glacier. The rate at which this vegetation migrated up the former bed of the glacier (2.1-4.6 m/yr from 1958 to 1997) is similar to the rate of glacial retreat (2.9 m/yr). In the interval from 1997 to 2002| pioneer species advanced at a rapid rate of 6.4-12.2 m/yr| while the glacier retreated at 9.8 m/yr. Rapid glacial retreat has been accompanied by rapid colonization by plants. Pioneer species improve soil conditions and make habitat suitable for other plants. If warming continues| alpine plant cover may extend all the way to mountain summits| and then eventually diminish as trees colonize the areas formerly occupied by alpine plants. Larger woody plants such as Senecio keniodendron and Lobelia telekii| which showed no obvious advance prior to 1997| have advanced quickly since that year. 1781,2005,2,3,Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change,Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching| the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here| we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First| we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs| using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions| like Micronesia and western Polynesia| may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs| but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. 1894,2005,4,4,Global biomass mapping for an improved understanding of the CO2 balance - the Earth observation mission Carbon-3D,Understanding global climate change and developing strategies for sustainable use of our environmental resources are major scientific and political challenges. In response to an announcement of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) for a national Earth observation (EO) mission| the Friedrich-Schiller University Jena and the JenaOptronik GmbH proposed the EO mission Carbon-3D. The data products of this mission will for the first time accurately estimate aboveground biomass globally| one of the most important parameters of the carbon cycle. Simultaneous acquisition of multiangle optical with Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) observations is unprecedented. The optical imager extrapolates the laser-retrieved height profiles to biophysical vegetation maps. This innovative mission will reduce uncertainties about net effects of deforestation and forest regrowth on atmospheric CO2 concentrations and will also provide key biophysical information for biosphere models. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1910,2005,4,3,Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil,Enhanced release of CO2 to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle| resulting in much higher CO2 levels and accelerated global warming. However| the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate-carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple| single-pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated 'RothC' multipool soil carbon model| driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models| although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 Gt C by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 Gt C decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust| but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model. 1789,2005,3,3,Global climate change and the equity-efficiency puzzle,There is a broad consensus that the costs of abatement of global climate change can be reduced efficiently through the assignment of quota rights and through international trade in these rights. There is| however| no consensus on whether the initial assignment of emissions permits can affect the Pareto-optimal global level of abatement. This paper provides some insight into the equity-efficiency puzzle. Qualitative results are obtained from a small-scale model; then quantitative evidence of separability is obtained from MERGE| a multiregion integrated assessment model. It is shown that if all the costs of climate change can be expressed in terms of GDP losses| Pareto-efficient abatement strategies are independent of the initial allocation of emissions rights. This is the case sometimes described as 'market damages'. If| however| different regions assign different values to nonmarket damages such as species losses| different sharing rules may affect the Pareto-optimal level of greenhouse gas abatement. Separability may then be demonstrated only in specific cases (e.g. identical welfare functions or quasi-linearity of preferences or small shares of wealth devoted to abatement). (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7138,2005,2,4,Global warming and acid precipitation: Some aspects of their effect on climate| Part 2,Acid rain and global warming are both controversial topics because of both their real and speculative adverse effects on the environment. This article covers and discusses a broad range of topics relating to these effects. 1879,2005,3,3,Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate,The impacts of global warming on the environment| economy and society are presently receiving much attention by the international community. However| the extent to which anthropogenic factors are the main cause of global warming is still being debated. There are obviously large stakes associated with the validity of any theory since that will indicate what actions need to be taken to protect the human racersquos only home—Earth. Most studies of global warming have investigated the rates and quantities of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. In this paper| we focus on the earthrsquos carbon budget and the associated energy transfer between various components of the climate system. This research invokes some new concepts: (i) certain biochemical processes which strongly interact with geophysical processes in climate system; (ii) a hypothesis that internal processes in the oceans rather than in the atmosphere are at the center of global warming; (iii) chemical energy stored in biochemical processes can significantly affect ocean dynamics and therefore the climate system. Based on those concepts| we propose a new hypothesis for global warming. We also propose a revolutionary strategy to deal with global climate change and provide domestic energy security at the same time. Recent ocean exploration indicates that huge deposits of oceanic methane hydrate deposits exist on the seafloor on continental margins. Methane hydrate transforms into water and methane gas when it dissociates. So| this potentially could provide the United States with energy security if the technology for mining in the 200-mile EEZ is developed and is economically viable. Furthermore| methane hydrate is a relatively environmentally benign| clean fuel. Such technology would help industry reduce carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere| and thus reduce global warming by harnessing the energy from the deep sea.
1771,2005,2,4,Global warming is changing the dynamics of Arctic host-parasite systems,Global climate change is altering the ecology of infectious agents and driving the emergence A disease in people| domestic animals| and wildlife. We present a novel| empirically based| predictive model for the impact of climate warming on development rates and availability of an important parasitic nematode of muskoxen in the Canadian Arctic| a region that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Using this model| we show that warming in the Arctic may have already radically altered the transmission dynamics of this parasite| escalating infection pressure for muskoxen| and that this trend is expected to continue. This work establishes a foundation for understanding responses to climate change of other host-parasite systems| in the Arctic and globally. 7171,2005,3,3,Global warming potential from soils in tropical peatland of Sarawak| Malaysia,Tropical peatlands are important sources and sinks of atmospheric methane (CH4) and major sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Recently| large areas of tropical peatland have been developed for agriculture plantations in Southeast Asia whereby drainage is a prerequisite| which can increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions substantially and therefore| global warming potential (GWP). Despite this| there is still a paucity of knowledge on GHG emissions from different ecosystems on tropical peatland and their roles and contribution to the global gas budget. Thus| three ecosystems from tropical peatland of Sarawak| Malaysia| mixed peatswamp forest| oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) plantation and sago (Metroxylon sagu) plantation| were chosen for the study of GHG emissions from the soils to determine their contribution towards GWP. The GHG emissions were measured monthly over 12 months using a closed chamber technique. GWP from forest soils was higher (7850 9 CO2 m(-2) y(-1)) compared with oil palm ecosystem (5706 9 CO2 m(-2) y(-1)) and sago ecosystem (4233 g CO2 m(-2) y(-1)). A high GWP in forest ecosystem was due to its high soil respiration rate of 7817 9 CO2 m(-2) y(-1). Soil respiration rates for sago and oil palm were 4074 g CO2 m(-2) y(-1) and 5652 g CO2 m(-2) y(-1) respectively. About 4 % of GWP from peat soils in sago ecosystem was due to CH4 (5.5 9 CO2 m(-2) y(-1)) and N2O (153.4 g CO2 m(-2) y(-1)) emissions| which were negligible in forest and oil palm ecosystems. Thus| the GWP of the soils in the three ecosystems on tropical peatland were mainly dominated by CO2 fluxes from the soil implying that tropical peatlands may function as a source for atmospheric CO2 on a global scale. 6769,2005,3,4,Global warming potential of manure amended soils under rice-wheat system in the Indo-Gangetic plains,Use of organic amendments such as farmyard manure (FYM)| green manure (GM) and crop residues is important to improve soil health and reduce the dependence on synthetic chemical fertilizer. However| these organic amendments also effect the emissions of greenhouse gas (GHG) from soil. Influence of different organic amendments on emissions of GHG from soil and their global warming potential (GWP) was studied in a field experiment in rice-wheat cropping system of Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP). There was 28% increase in CH4 emissions on addition of 25% N through Sesbania GM along with urea compared to urea alone. Substitution of 100% inorganic N by organic sources lead to a 60% increase in CH4 emissions. The carbon equivalent emission from rice-wheat systems varied between 3816 and 4886 kg C equivalent ha(-1) depending upon fertilizer and organic amendment. GWP of rice-wheat system increased by 28% on full substitution of organic N by chemical N. However| the C efficiency ratios of the GM and crop residue treatments were at par with the recommended inorganic fertilizer treatment. Thus use of organic amendments along with inorganic fertilizer increases the GWP of the rice-wheat system but may improve the soil fertility status without adversely affecting the C efficiency ratio. However| the trade-off between improved yield and soil health versus GHG emissions should be taken into account while promoting the practice of farming with organic residues substitution for mineral fertilizer. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6880,2005,2,4,Global warming| Bergmann's rule and body size in the masked shrew Sorex cinereus Kerr in Alaska,1. It was recently shown that body size of Palearctic shrews decreases with increasing latitude| thus contradicting Bergmann's rule| and this trend was explained by food shortage during the cold northern winter. In Alaska| global warming has resulted in milder winters that may improve food supply. In this study we tested the hypothesis that body size of Alaskan shrews increased during the second half of the twentieth century| in response to global warming. 2. Data on body weight and length of body| tail| hind foot and ear of museum specimens of the masked shrew Sorex cinereus Kerr from Alaska were used in order to examine the effects of latitude| longitude| mean ambient temperature in January and July| and year of collection| on these parameters. 3. We found that variation in body size of the masked shrew in Alaska appears to contradict to the prediction of Bergmann's rule| decreasing in high latitudes and in areas cold January temperature. 4. Body size of shrews in Alaska increased significantly during the second half of the twentieth century| apparently due to the higher food availability in winter as a result of improved weather conditions for its prey. 6939,2005,2,2,Global warming| human population pressure| and viability of the world's smallest butterfly,The effects of climate change and habitat destruction and their interaction are likely to be the greatest challenge to animal and plant conservation in the twenty first century. We used the world's smallest butterfly| the Sinai baton blue (Pseudophilotes sinaicus)| as an exemplar of how global warming and human population pressures may act together to cause species extinctions. We mapped the entire global range of this butterfly and obtained extensive data on the intensity of livestock grazing. As with an increasing number of species| it is confined to a network of small habitat patches and is threatened both by indirect human-induced factors (global warming) and by the direct activities of humans (in this case| livestock grazing and collection of medicinal plants). In the absence of global warming| grazing| and plant collection| our model suggested that the butterfly will persist for at least 200 years. Above a threshold intensity of global warming| the chance of extinction accelerated rapidly| implying that there may be an annual average temperature| specific to each endangered species| above which extinction becomes very much more likely. By contrast| there was no such threshold of grazing pressure-the chance of extinction increased steadily with increasing grazing. The impact of grazing| however| decreased with higher levels of year-to-year variation in habitat quality. The effect of global warming did not depend on the future level of grazing| suggesting that the impacts of global warming and grazing are additive. If the areas of habitat patches individually fall below certain prescribed levels| the butterfly is likely to go extinct. Two patches were very important for persistence: if either were lost the species would probably go extinct. Our results have implications for the conservation management of all species whose habitats are at risk because of the direct activities of humans and in the longer term because of climate change. 6796,2005,2,2,Global warming: A consequence of human activities rivaling earth's biogeochemical processes,The planet is growing warmer because of a massive disruption in global biogeochemical cycles. We are burning our reserves of fossil fuels| which formed over a period of 300 million years| in the blink of an eye in geologic time. One manifestation of our addiction to fossil fuels is a dramatic change in the composition of the atmosphere and its radiative properties. Evidence is discussed in this commentary that human-induced global warming has already occurred| that powerful inertia is in place to cause future warming| and that humans and ecosystems are currently being affected. Stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at 550 ppm within the next century will require a 70% cutback in emissions. Thus| a whole new system of powering our global economy is necessary. 7193,2005,4,2,Global warming: Design of a flow-through shallow lake mesocosm climate experiment,Shallow lakes are likely to be strongly impacted by climate changes and| in particular| by increased temperatures. To enable realistic experimental studies of the effects of higher temperatures on in-lake processes and dynamics| technologically advanced systems are required. This paper presents design details| operating characteristics| and background information on a currently operating experimental flow-through mesocosm system that allows investigation of the interactions between simulated climate warming and eutrophication and their impacts on biological structure and ecosystem processes in shallow lakes. We use 24 mesocosms to combine three temperature scenarios ( one unheated and two heated relative to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenario A2 and A2 + 50%| respectively) and two nutrient levels ( enriched and nonenriched). Planktivorous fish ( male sticklebacks| Gasterosteus aculeatus) are stocked in accordance with the nutrient level. The water residence time is regulated by the semicontinuous addition of water and is approximately 2.5 mo in each mesocosm. For heating| we use electrically powered heating elements. The heating system has performed well over 16 mo of continuous heating| and seasonal and diurnal temperature variations of the unheated reference mesocosms were paralleled well by the heated mesocosms. The performance of the flow- through system and the heating technique are discussed with special emphasis on strengths| limitations| and potential improvements of the system. To illustrate the performance of the system and its potential| we present data for selected periods on total phosphorus retention in the mesocosms and system primary production and respiration. 7114,2005,3,4,GPLS: Modeling and simulation environments for product life cycle design,With heightened public concern about the environmental impacts (e.g. global warming| ozone layer depletion) of products and manufacturing processes| the evaluation of environmental impacts during the lifecycle of the products has become a crucial issue. Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been developed to evaluate environmental impact of existing products and existing manufacturing processes| but the current LCA tools are not suitable for the evaluation of whole product lifecycles and cannot evaluate the logistics of product lifecycles| which are crucial factor in designing feasible and efficient product lifecycles. This paper proposes a modelling and simulation environment called Green Production and Logistics Simulator (GPLS) for evaluation and design of green product lifecycles. The proposed environment employs the concepts of modular modelling| model template| Multi-Dimensional Formalism (MDF) and process inventory| and has the ability to model costs| qualities and logistics. MDF defines a paradigm for the explicit representation of physical| behavioural| and operational perspectives or dimensions of the plant| process| and product. This is the basis for the development of simulation environments in which various product lifecycle alternatives are explored with the same simulation models. The case study| in which the PET bottle resin lifecycle was modelled and simulated| was implemented as a software tool and was shown to be convenient and efficient means to evaluate various product lifecycle alternatives. 1826,2005,2,4,Gradient analysis| the next generation: towards more plant-relevant explanatory variables,The long history of gradient analysis is anchored in the observation that species turnover can be described along elevation gradients. This model is unsatisfying in that elevation is not directly relevant to plants and the ubiquitous "elevation gradient" is composed of multiple intertwined environmental factors. We offer an approach to landscape-scale vegetation analysis that disentangles the elevation gradient into its constituent parts through focused field sampling and statistical analysis. We illustrate the approach for an old-growth watershed in the Oregon Western Cascades. Our initial model of this system supports the common observation that forest community types are highly associated with specific elevation bands. By replacing elevation and other crude environmental proxy variables with estimates of more direct and resource gradients (radiation| temperature| and soil moisture)| we create a vegetative model with stronger explanatory power than the proxy model in both cross-validation analysis and validation using an independent data set. The resulting model is also more biologically interpretable| which provides more meaningful insight into potential forest response to environmental change (e.g.| global climate change scenarios). Acquiring a better mechanistic understanding of the relationship between plant communities and environmental predictor variables presents the next great challenge to community ecologists conducting gradient studies at landscape scales. 6952,2005,3,3,Greenhouse gas emissions from a managed grassland,Managed grasslands contribute to global warming by the exchange of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide| nitrous oxide and methane. To reduce uncertainties of the global warming potential of European grasslands and to assess potential mitigation options| an integrated approach quantifying fluxes from all three gases is needed. Greenhouse gas emissions from a grassland site in the SE of Scotland were measured in 2002 and 2003. Closed static chambers were used for N2O and CH4 flux measurements| and samples were analysed by gas chromatography. Closed dynamic chambers were used for soil respiration measurements| using infrared gas analysis. Three organic manures and two inorganic fertilizers were applied at a rate of 300 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) (available N) and compared with a zero-N control on grassland plots in a replicated experimental design. Soil respiration from plots receiving manure was up to 1.6 times larger than CO2 release from control plots and up to 1.7 times larger compared to inorganic treatments (p < 0.05). A highly significant (p < 0.001) effect of fertilizer and manure treatments on N2O release was observed. Release of N2O from plots receiving inorganic fertilizers resulted in short term peaks of up to 388 g N2O-N ha(-1) day(-1). However losses from plots receiving organic manures were both longer lasting and greater in magnitude| with an emission of up to 3488 g N2O-N ha(-1) day(-1) from the sewage sludge treatments. During the 2002 growing season the cumulative total N2O flux from manure treatments was 25 times larger than that from mineral fertilizers. CH4 emissions were only significantly increased (p < 0.001) for a short period following applications of cattle slurry. Although soil respiration in manure plots was high| model predictions and micrometeorological flux measurements at an adjacent site suggest that all plots receiving fertilizer or manure acted as a sink for CO2. Therefore in terms of global warming potentials the contribution of N2O from manure treatments becomes particularly important. There were considerable variations in N2O and CO2 fluxes between years| which was related to annual variations in soil temperature and rainfall. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7205,2005,3,3,Greenhouse gas emissions from Indian rice fields: calibration and upscaling using the DNDC model,The Denitrification and Decomposition ( DNDC) model was evaluated for its ability to simulate methane (CH4)| nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from Indian rice fields with various management practices. The model was calibrated and validated for field experiments in New Delhi| India. The observed yield| N uptake and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were in good agreement with the values predicted by the model. The model was then applied for estimation of GHG emissions from rice fields in India using a newly compiled soil/climate/land use database. Continuous flooding of rice fields (42.25 million ha) resulted in annual net emissions of 1.07-1.10| 0.04-0.05 and 21.16-60.96 Tg of CH4-C| N2O-N and CO2-C| respectively| with a cumulated global warming potential ( GWP) of 130.93-272.83 Tg CO2 equivalent. Intermittent flooding of rice fields reduced annual net emissions to 0.12-0.13 Tg CH4-C and 16.66-48.80 Tg CO2-C while N2O emission increased to 0.05-0.06 Tg N2O-N. The GWP| however| reduced to 91.73-211.80 Tg CO2 equivalent. The study suggested that the model could be applied for estimating the GHG emissions and the influences of agronomic management| soil and climatic parameters on the GHG emissions from rice fields in India. 7155,2005,3,2,Greenhouse gas emissions from Swiss agriculture since 1990: implications for environmental policies to mitigate global warming,Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contribute significantly to global warming| and environmental protection strategies have thus to integrate emission reduction measures from this source. In Switzerland| legislation together with monetary incentives has forced primarily integrated| and to a lesser extend organic farming| both covering nowadays more than 95% of the agriculturally useful area. Though reducing| greenhouse gas emissions was not a primary intention of this reorganisation| the measures were successful in reducing the overall emissions of nitrous oxide and methane by 10% relative to 1990. A reduction of the animal herd| namely of dairy cattle| non-dairy cattle and swine| and decreasing inputs of mineral N are the main contributors to the achieved emission reduction. Crop productivity was not negatively affected and milk productivity even increased| referring to the ecological potential of agricultural reorganisation that has been tapped. Total meat production declined proportional to the animal herd. Stabilised animal numbers and fertiliser use during the last 4 years refer to an exhaustion of future reduction potentials without further legislative action because this stabilisation is most likely due to the adaptation to the production guidelines. A comparison of emission trends and carbon sequestration potentials in the broader context of the EU15 reveals that nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) have been reduced more efficiently most probably due to the measures taken| but that sequestration potentials are smaller than in the EU15 mainly because of differences in the agricultural structure. The change from an intensified towards a more environmental sound integrated production has a significant reduction potential| but in any case| agriculture will remain a net GHG source in spite of emission mitigation and carbon sequestration. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All fights reserved. 7172,2005,4,4,Greenhouse gas fluxes and global warming potentials in crop fields on soil-dressed peatland in Hokkaido| Japan,This study was conducted to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in fields growing paddy and fallow (PF)| soybean and winter wheat (SW)| and spring and winter wheat (WW) on peatland dressed with mineral soil. Field measurements were carried out from June 2002 to May 2003. GHG fluxes were measured in a closed chamber. Soil respiration was measured in the SW and WW fields| and photosynthetic CO2 flux during the daytime (net ecosystem production| NEPday) was measured in the PF field. Microbial respiration (R.) in the SW and WW fields was approximated as 60% of the total soil respiration. NEP was calculated as the difference between plant dry matter (net primary production| NPP) and R-m. Aboveground plant parts were collected from each field to calculate NPP of each crop. Rm in the PF field was calculated as (3)/2NPP - NEPday| because aboveground respiration is 50% of NPP. The global warming potential (GWP) in each ecosystem was calculated using a 100-year time horizon| as recommended by the IPCC (with factors of 21 for CH4 and 310 for N2O). R-m was 682 g Cm-2 y(-1) in PF| 533 in SW| and 388 in WW. NPP was 651| 397| and 152 g C m(-2) y(-1)| respectively. Therefore| NEP was -31| -136| and -236 g C m(-2) y(-1)| respectively. The PF field acted as a large CH4 source (85.2 g C m(-2) y(-1)) because of flooding. The WW field was a small source of CH4 (0.16 g C m(-2) y(-1))| and the SW field was a small sink (0.14 g C m(-2) y(-1)). All fields were sources of N2O (1.36 g N m(-2) y(-1) in SW| 0.60 in WW| and 0.05 in PF). The rate of mineralization was higher than the rate of N fertilizer application in SW and WW. The GWP was equivalent to 2522 9 CO2 m(-2) y(-1) in the PF field| 11619 CO2 m(-2) y(-1) in the WW field| and 1157 9 CO2 m(-2) y(-1) in the SW field. The high value in the PF field was due to high CH4 emissions there. 6859,2005,3,4,Greenhouse gas production: A comparison between aerobic and anaerobic wastewater treatment technology,Anaerobic wastewater treatment offers improved energy conservation with potential reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Pitfalls exist in that the methane produced in anaerobic treatment can offset any reductions in carbon dioxide emissions| if it is released to the environment. This paper analyzes greenhouse gas emissions from both aerobic and anaerobic treatment systems| including sludge digestion and the losses of dissolved methane in digested biosolids and process effluents. There exists cross over points| ranging from 300 to 700mg/L influent wastewater BODu| which are functions of the efficiency of the aerobic treatment system. Anaerobic treatment becomes favorable when treating influents higher in concentrations than the cross over values. A technology to recover dissolved methane would make anaerobic treatment favorable at nearly all influent strengths. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7207,2005,4,4,Ground surface warming history in northern Canada inferred from inversions of temperature logs and comparison with other proxy climate reconstructions,Well temperature logs from 61 sites located in discontinuous and continuous permafrost regions of northern Canada are analyzed. The method of functional space inversion (FSI) is applied to the set of precise temperature logs from wells located between 60degrees and 82degreesN. There is strong evidence of extensive ground surface temperature (GST) warming beginning in the late 18(th) century and lasting until the 20(th) century. This was preceded by a lengthy period of cooling. The approximate average increase of the surface temperature of Canadian Arctic| based on all individual GST histories| is >1.3degreesC for the last 200 years. Simultaneous inversion of all well temperature data suggests an even higher warming (approximately 2degreesC). There has been no strong south-to-north gradient in the ground warming magnitude when northern Canadian data are compared with eastern and central Canadian data south of 60degreesN which also shows warming close to 2degreesC. In Alaska| warming of some 2degreesC has been restricted mainly to the 20(th) century. In general| however| a high warming magnitude is common for most of Canada and Alaska for the previous century. The averaged GST history (GSTH) for the Canadian Arctic is calibrated with and compares visually with a variety of recently published regional and hemispheric proxy climate reconstructions. These show that GST warming derived from well temperature logs is generally higher than one shown by other proxy (mainly tree-ring reconstructions). 1799,2005,2,4,Growing typhoon influence on east Asia,Numerical model studies have suggested that the ongoing global climate change will likely affect tropical cyclone activity. Since the global warming has been underway| it is meaningful to ask: Are there evidences of observed changes in tropical cyclone activity? Using best-track data from 1965 to 2003| we show for the first time that over the past four decades the two prevailing typhoon tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) have shifted westward significantly; thus the subtropical East Asia has experienced increasing typhoon influence; but the typhoon influence over the South China Sea has considerably decreased. Our trajectory model simulation indicates that the long-term shifts in the typhoon tracks result primarily from the changes in the mean translation velocity of typhoons or the large-scale steering flow| which is associated with the westward expansion and strengthening of the WNP subtropical high. 7218,2005,3,4,Heat transfer and pressure drop characteristics of finned tube banks in forced convection - (Comparison of heat transfer and pressure drop characteristics of serrated and spiral fins),In recent years| requirement for the reduction of energy consumption has been increasing to solve the problems of global warming and shortage of petroleum resources. In the power generation field| thermal power generation occupies 60% of the power generation demand| so the improvement of thermal efficiency is of considerable importance. In this article| the heat transfer and pressure drop characteristics of finned tube banks used for heat exchangers in thermal power generation plants were studied experimentally. Serrated finned tube banks for improvement of higher heat transfer and conventional spiral finned tube banks were tested under the same test conditions. Empirical equations to predict the heat transfer coefficient and the pressure drop were proposed. 7064,2005,2,4,Heat wave 2003 and mortality in Switzerland,Questions under study: During June to August 2003| high temperatures were reported across Europe including Switzerland. In many European countries| particularly in France the heat wave was associated with an increase in mortality. This is the first analysis investigating whether the high temperatures during summer 2003 in Switzerland had a measurable impact on mortality. Methods: Daily data on all-cause mortality for the period January 1990 to December 2003| and meteorological data from 20 different stations for the same period were analysed. Excess mortality for different age groups| gender and geographic regions was calculated. Daily mortality and temperature in 2003 was correlated with lags of temperature up to 7 days. Results: An estimated 7% increase in all cause mortality occurred during June to August 2003. Excess mortality was limited to the region north of the Alps| to inhabitants of cities and suburban areas and was more pronounced among the elderly and the inhabitants of Basel| Geneva and Lausanne. North of the Alps| deviations in daily mortality were significantly correlated with deviations in maximum daily temperatures and night temperatures. The combination of day temperature above 35 degrees C and night temperatures above 20 degrees C predominantly occurred in Basel and Geneva and might in part explain the regional differences in excess mortality. Conclusions: As the number of elderly people in Switzerland continues to rise and the occurrence of heat waves is predicted to increase as a consequence of global warming| preventive programmes targeting susceptible populations during heat waves are warranted. 6877,2005,3,3,High-resolution| temperature dependant| fourier transform infrared spectroscopy of CF3I,CF3I is being considered as a replacement for some of the global warming gases currently used in the plasma industry| however before this compound can be put into wide-scale use the possible implications upon the atmosphere must be carefully considered. Calculations of global warming potentials of compounds require detailed information about the infrared absorption properties of a compound. High resolution Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy has been applied to CF3I to measure absolute infrared photo absorption cross-sections. These have been measured in the ranges (400-1400)cm(-1) and (1900-2500) cm(-1) at a resolution of 0.003 cm(-1) for temperatures of 208.0| 251.6| 272.9 and 299.4 K over a range of pressures. Eight absorption features were observed across the measured range some of which lie within the atmospheric IR (800-1300cm(-1)) window and hence may play a role in global warming. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7039,2005,2,4,Holocene dune and peat complexes along the shore of northern France.,Holocene dune and peat complexes along the shore of northern France. This survey of the coastal dunes of northern France is based on stratigraphy| C-14 dating| sedimentology and morphology applied for palaeoclimatic and palaeodynamic purpose. The dunes rest on a Flandrian prism sealed by Atlantic peats grown backward from a subboreal dune ridge. Two historical building phases are recorded: the late Roman dunes and the 13th century dunes. These events are separated by pedogenesis. Contribution of reworked fluvial sands also records the recent climatic degradation| with an increased storminess (Little Ice Age) associated with more efficient erosion (soil erosion and floods). The dunes of Picardy also record the Global Warming: their morphologies attest a shift from parabolic into longitudinal| by coupling storminess and sea-level rise. (c) 2005 Academie des sciences. Publie par Elsevier SAS. Tons droits reserves. 7076,2005,2,4,Horizontal distribution and dominant species of heteropods in the East China Sea,This article discusses the horizontal distribution and dominant species of heteropods in the East China Sea. The ecological characteristics of heteropods and their adaptability to the environments were also considered. Oceanographic census was carried out in the East China Sea (23 degrees 30'similar to 33 degrees N and 118 degrees 30'similar to 128 degrees E) in four seasons from 1997 to 2000. It was found that the total abundance showed obvious seasonal variations. It peaked in autumn with a mean value of 21.03 ind. (100 m(3))(-1)| followed by summer (4.89 ind. (100 m(3))(-1)). The lowest abundance occurred in winter and spring. As to the horizontal distribution| abundance in summer and autumn was higher in the nearshore than in the offshore of the East China Sea. In winter and spring| heteropods were barely found in the northern nearshore. Three dominant species were observed in four investigated seasons| in which only Atlanta rosea dominated in winter| spring and summer while Atlanta peroni and Atlanta lesueuri mainly dominated in autumn. These two dominant species observed in autumn exhibited a rather higher occurrence frequency than A. rosea. Temperature was found to be a major influencing factor whereas salinity was a minor one. Comparing their adaptability| A. rosea can survive in a wider temperature range (16 similar to 28 degrees C)| which enables it to dominate in four seasons| while A. peroni survives in a relatively narrow temperature range (19 similar to 28 degrees CC) and the range for A. lesueuri was even more narrow (21 similar to 28 degrees CC). Moreover| A. rosea was also adapted to a wider range of salinity. However| the abundance of A. rosea in autumn was lower than those of A. peroni and A. lesueuri. It can be thereby inferred that the multiplication speed of A. rosea was lower than the other two species within the same favorable temperature range. Due to their adaptability to high salinity| the distribution of heteropods was closely related to the domain of the Taiwan Warm Current and Kuroshio. Especially for A. peroni and A. lesueuri| their high abundance areas are always indicative of the lasting existence of strong warm currents. The negative values of aggregation indices indicated relatively even distribution of heteropods in the East China Sea. The high abundance area (31 degrees 00' N| 126 degrees 00' E) of heteropods in autumn is on the migration pathway of the mackerel (Scomber japonicus Houttuyn). Thus| there is also a fishing ground of the mackerel. This suggested that the high abundance area of heteropods in autumn is important to the fisheries in the East China Sea. Comparing with the historical records| the abundance of heteropods appeared to increase in the past 40 years. This may be a result of strengthened warm currents due to global warming. 7092,2005,2,3,How much more global warming and sea level rise?,Two global coupled climate models show that even if the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the year 2000| we are already committed to further global warming of about another half degree and an additional 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century. Projected weakening of the meridional. overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean does not lead to a net cooling in Europe. At any given point in time| even if concentrations are stabilized| there is a commitment to future climate changes that will be greater than those we have already observed. 7008,2005,4,3,Human activities and global warming: a cointegration analysis,Using econometric tools for selecting I(1) and I(2) trends| we found the existence of static long-run steady-state and dynamic long-run steady-state relations between temperature and radiative forcing of solar irradiance and a set of three greenhouse gases series. Estimates of the adjustment coefficients indicate that temperature series is error correcting around 5-65% of the disequilibria each year| depending on the type of long-run relation. The estimates of the I(1) and I(2) trends indicate that they are driven by linear combinations of the three greenhouse gases and their loadings indicate strong impact on the temperature series. The equilibrium temperature change for a doubling of carbon dioxide is between 2.15 and 3.4 degrees C| which is in agreement with past literature and the report of the IPCC in 2001 using 15 different general circulation models. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
7019,2005,2,2,Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution,Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now| temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed directly to anthropogenic climatic change. Using modeled climatic variables and observed species data| which are independent of thermometer records and paleoclimatic proxies| we demonstrate statistically significant "joint attribution|" a two-step linkage: human activities contribute significantly to temperature changes and human-changed temperatures are associated with discernible changes in plant and animal traits. Additionally| our analyses provide independent testing of grid-box-scale temperature projections from a general circulation model (HadCM3). 6814,2005,2,2,Hurricanes and global warming,This paper reviews recent research on tropical cyclones and climate change from the perspective of event risk-the physical behavior of storms; vulnerability-the characteristics of a system that create the potential for impacts| but are independent of event risk; and also outcome risk-the integration of considerations of vulnerability with event risk to characterize an event that causes losses. The paper concludes that with no trend identified in various metrics of hurricane damage over the twentieth century| it is exceedingly unlikely 'that scientists will identify large changes in historical storm behavior that have significant societal implications| though scientists may identify discernible changes in storm behavior. Looking to the future| until scientists conclude a) that there will be changes to storms that are significantly larger than observed in the past| b) that such changes are correlated to measures of societal impact| and c) that the effects of such changes are significant in the context of inexorable growth in population and property at risk| then it is reasonable to conclude that the significance of any connection of human-caused climate change to hurricane impacts necessarily has been and will continue to be exceedingly small. 6749,2005,3,2,Hybrid artificial neural network - First principle model formulation for the unsteady state simulation and analysis of a packed bed reactor for CO2 hydrogenation to methanol,Carbon dioxide emission is well recognized as the main source of global warming. The catalytic hydrogenation of carbon dioxide to methanol represents an effective method for preventing this side effect. The objective of this paper is to present a hybrid neural network model (NNM) for the simulation of a differential catalytic hydrogenation reactor of carbon dioxide to methanol. The hybrid model consists of two parts: a mechanistic model and a neural model. The mechanistic model employs heat transfer| mass transfer and pressure drop equations and calculates the effluent temperature of the reactor by taking outlet mole fractions from the output of a neural network model. The prepared hybrid model was used to simulate and identify an existing industrial methanol reactor. The bed of the reactor was assimilated to a pile of layers| each corresponding to a neural network (NN) model that can predict outlet composition of each layer as a function of time. The model was successfully tested with plant experimental data. The insights of this research indicate a very fast responding model in comparison to traditional models to demonstrate CO2 reduction as a function of time and reactor length. Variation of temperature and other compositions with time and bed height are also investigated in this article. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6893,2005,3,2,Hydrogen storage properties of metallic hydrides,Nowadays| energy needs are mainly covered by fossil energies leading to pollutant emissions mostly responsible for global warming. Among the different possible solutions for greenhouse effect reduction| hydrogen has been proposed for energy transportation. Indeed| H-2 can be seen as a clean and efficient energy carrier. However| beside the difficulties related to hydrogen production| efficient high capacity storage means are still to be developed. Many metals and alloys are able to store large amounts of hydrogen. This latter solution is of interest in terms of safety| global yield and long term storage. However| to be suitable for applications| such compounds must present high capacity| good reversibility| fast reactivity and sustainability. In this paper| we will review the structural and thermodynamic properties of metallic hydrides. 7077,2005,5,4,Hypothesis for increased atmospheric methane input from hydrocarbon seeps on exposed continental shelves during glacial low sea level,Natural marine hydrocarbon seeps on continental margins today represent a small source of methane in the global atmosphere budget| which is dominated by anthropogenic sources and contributions from wetlands in the tropics and northern high latitudes. In glacial times with lowered sea level| exposed seeps must have vented directly to the atmosphere and the portion of methane that was formerly dissolved and oxidized in the ocean contributed to the global atmospheric methane budget. We estimate that during lowered sea level 40-100 X 10(12) g/yr of methane were added to the atmosphere from gas seeps on the exposed shelves. This source could account for much of the atmospheric methane during glacial episodes because major wetlands were largely absent prior to the Holocene. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7061,2005,5,4,Hypoxia| global warming| and terrestrial Late Permian extinctions,A catastrophic extinction occurred at the end of the Permian Period. However| baseline extinction rates appear to have been elevated even before the final catastrophe| suggesting sustained environmental degradation. For terrestrial vertebrates during the Late Permian| the combination of a drop in atmospheric oxygen plus climate warming would have induced hypoxic stress and consequently compressed altitudinal ranges to near sea level. Our simulations suggest that the magnitude of altitudinal compression would have forced extinctions by reducing habitat diversity| fragmenting and isolating populations| and inducing a species-area effect. It also might have delayed ecosystem recovery after the mass extinction. 6757,2005,3,3,Impact of improved air quality on the future evolution of climate,Calculations performed with the Hamburg Climate Model suggest that climate change resulting from increasing greenhouse gas emissions would become considerably more pronounced if air quality were dramatically improved in the future. Specifically| the globally averaged surface air temperature and amount of precipitation could increase in less than a decade by 0.8 K and 3%| respectively| if the entire amount of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols were removed from the atmosphere. The geographic patterns of the calculated changes bear resemblance with those found in greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario experiments ( annual mean temperature increase of approximately 1 K on most continents| 4 K in the Arctic). This study suggests that possible future changes as well as the general issue of the stability of atmospheric aerosol loads should be considered in strategies aiming to maintain global warming below a prescribed threshold. It also underscores the need to account for associated possible changes in precipitation in such strategies. 7107,2005,2,4,Impact of the anomalous thawing in the Tibetan Plateau on summer precipitation in China and its mechanism,The impact of the anomalous thawing of frozen soil in the late spring on the summer precipitation in China and its possible mechanism are analyzed in the context of the frozen soil thawing date data of the 50 meteorological stations in the Tibetan Plateau| and the NCEP/NCAR monthly average reanalysis data. Results show that the thawing dates of the Tibetan Plateau gradually become earlier from 1980 to 1999| which is consistent with the trend of global warming in the 20th century. Because differences in the thermal capacity and conductivity between frozen and unfrozen soils axe larger| changes in the freezing/thawing process of soil may change the physical properties of the underlying surface| thus affecting exchanges of sensible and latent heat between the ground surface and air. The thermal state change of the plateau ground surface must lead to the thermal anomalies of the atmosphere over and around the plateau| and then further to the anomalies of the general atmospheric circulation. A possible mechanism for the impact of the thawing of the plateau on summer (July) precipitation may be as follows. When the frozen soil thaws early (late) in the plateau| the thermal capacity of the ground surface is large (small)| and the thermal conductivity is small (large)| therefore| the thermal exchanges between the ground surface and the air are weak (strong). The small (large) ground surface sensible and latent heat fluxes lead to a weak (strong) South Asian high| a weak (strong) West Pacific subtropical high and a little to south (north) of its normal position. Correspondingly| the ascending motion is strengthened (weakened) and precipitation increases (decreases) in South China| while in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River| the ascending motion and precipitation show the opposite trend. 1824,2005,2,3,Impacts of climate and land-cover changes in arid lands of Central Asia,Despite the growing understanding of the global climate change| great uncertainties exist in the prediction of responses of and regions to global and regional| natural and human-induced climate change. Meteorological data series show a steady increase of annual and winter temperatures in Central Asia since the beginning of the 20th century that might have a strong potential impact on the region's natural ecosystems| agricultural crops| and human health. Analyses of the NOAA AVHRR temporal series since the 1980s showed a decrease in aridity from 1991-2000 compared to 1982-1990. While most climate models agree that the temperature in and Central Asia will increase by 1-2 degrees C by 2030-2050| precipitation projections vary from one model to another and projected changes in the aridity index for different model runs show no consistent trend for this region. Local and regional human impacts in and zones can significantly modify surface albedo| as well as water exchange and nutrient cycles that could have impacts on the climatic system both at the regional and global scales. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7074,2005,2,4,Impacts of climatic change on world agricultural product markets: Estimation of macro yield functions,Climatic change through global warming and drought is a major issue for agricultural production. Most researchers who discuss climate changes report the yield changes estimated by using crop process models; however| studies focusing on the impact of climatic change on agricultural product markets are very few. This paper examines the relationship between climatic change and world food markets| i.e.| supply and demand of crops| by using a world food model and newly estimated yield functions. These yield functions include rainfall and temperature as climate variables| and the estimated parameters are used in the world food model. The stationarity of these yield data is tested and appropriate functional forms are selected. The results suggest that yields of major crops will decrease because of rising temperatures in many countries and regions| however| market price impacts of changes in production of these crops are not large because of trade. The countries which suffer severe damage because of higher temperature may need to consider changes in cropping patterns and practices. 1854,2005,2,4,Impacts of flooding and climate change on urban transportation: A systemwide performance assessment of the Boston Metro Area,Global climate change is likely to affect urban infrastructure through sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme events. This paper assesses the potential impact of climate change on the system-wide performance of transportation networks using the Boston Metro Area as a case study. The methodology integrates projected changes in land use| demographic and climatic conditions into the urban transportation modeling system in order to explore the relative impacts of global warming on the system performance due to additional riverine and coastal flooding. Results indicate almost a doubling in delays and lost trips. These impacts are significant| but probably not large enough to justify a major effort for adapting the physical infrastructure to expected climatic conditions| except for some key links. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1860,2005,2,4,Implications of global climatic change and energy cost and availability for the restoration of the Mississippi delta,Over the past several thousand years| inputs from the Mississippi River formed the Mississippi delta| an area of about 25|000 km(2). Over the past century| however| there has been a high loss of coastal wetlands of about 4800 km(2). The main causes of this loss are the near complete isolation of the river from the delta| mostly due to the construction of flood control levees| and pervasive hydrological disruption of the deltaic plain. There is presently a large-scale State-Federal program to restore the delta that includes construction of water control structures in the flood control levees to divert river water into deteriorating wetlands and pumping of dredged sediment| often for long distances| for marsh creation. Global climate change and decreasing availability and increasing cost of energy are likely to have important implications for delta restoration. Coastal restoration efforts will have to be more intensive to offset the impacts of climate change including accelerated sea level rise and changes in precipitation patterns. Future coastal restoration efforts should also focus on less energy-intensive| ecologically engineered management techniques that use the energies of nature as much as possible. Diversions may be as important for controlling salinity as for providing sediments and nutrients for restoring coastal wetlands. Energy-intensive pumping-dredged sediments for coastal restoration will likely become much more expensive in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1864,2005,4,4,Improved scheme for determining the thermal centroid of the oceanic warm pool using sea surface temperature data,During the past two decades| concern about the western Pacific Warm Pool (WP) has been growing following the recognition of its significant role in global climate change and its close association with El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomena. A fundamental issue in WP related studies is to locate its centroid and track its trajectory. The method used by some previous researchers for estimating the WP position seems to oversimplify the problem to a purely geometric one. This| however| is found to be systematically biased in both zonal and meridional directions. A new scheme for determining the WP centroid| which takes into account the thermal structure of the surface water| is proposed| resulting in a significant improvement in precise tracking of the WP trajectory compared to previous results. 7069,2005,4,3,Increase of carbon cycle feedback with climate sensitivity: results from a coupled climate and carbon cycle model,Coupled climate and carbon cycle modelling studies have shown that the feedback between global warming and the carbon cycle| in particular the terrestrial carbon cycle| could accelerate climate change and result in greater warming. In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of this feedback for year 2100 global warming in the range of 0 to 8 K. Differing climate sensitivities to increased CO2 content are imposed on the carbon cycle models for the same emissions. Emissions from the SIZES A2 scenario are used. We use a fully coupled climate and carbon cycle model| the INtegrated Climate and CArbon model (INCCA)| the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model coupled to the IBIS terrestrial biosphere model and a modified OCMIP ocean biogeochemistry model. In our integrated model| for scenarios with year 2100 global warming increasing from 0 to 8 K| land uptake decreases from 47% to 29% of total CO2 emissions. Due to competing effects| ocean uptake (16%) shows almost no change at all. Atmospheric CO2 concentration increases are 48% higher in the run with 8 K global climate warming than in the case with no warming. Our results indicate that carbon cycle amplification of climate warming will be greater if there is higher climate sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO2 content; the carbon cycle feedback factor increases from 1. 13 to 1.48 when global warming increases from 3.2 to 8 K. 6913,2005,2,4,Increased temperature sensitivity and divergent growth trends in circumpolar boreal forests,Tree rings have been used to both reconstruct past climate| and to estimate and project carbon uptake of forest ecosystems. Here we show that large groups of trees of the dominant tree species within widely-distributed circumpolar forest sites show opposing growth trends during recent warming. These opposing growth trends are present at a sub-chronology level and| if averaged into chronologies| may have contributed to the widely reported overall decreased temperature sensitivity of high-latitude chronologies over recent decades. Unlike previous studies| we find that temperature sensitivity has actually increased for most individual trees at these sites. This recent| widespread divergence in growth response seems unique over the past three centuries| and may relate to different microsite responses of individual trees to temperature-induced drought stress or other factors. This divergence needs to be taken into account in dendroclimatic reconstructions| estimations of global warming impacts| and carbon uptake projections. 6916,2005,2,4,Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years,Theory(1) and modelling(2) predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures| but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency(3|4) and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power| integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone| and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature| reflecting well-documented climate signals| including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific| and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential| and - taking into account an increasing coastal population a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century. 7045,2005,2,4,Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and El Nino-Southern Oscillation: A new perspective,Here the 1976-77 climate regime shift that was accompanied by a remarkable change in the lead-lag relationships between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and El Ni (n) over tildeo evolution is shown. After the 1976-77 regime shift| a correlation analysis suggests that southern Indian Ocean SSTs observed during late boreal winter are a key precursor in predicting El Ni (n) over tildeo evolution as the traditional oceanic heat content anomalies in the equatorial Pacific or zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific. The possible physical mechanisms underlying this highly significant statistical relationship are discussed. After the 1976-77 regime shift| southern Indian Ocean SST anomalies produced by Mascarene high pulses during boreal winter trigger coupled air-sea processes in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean during the following seasons. This produces a persistent remote forcing on the Pacific climate system| promoting wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific and modulating the regional Hadley cell in the southwest Pacific. These modulations| in turn| excite Rossby waves| which produce quasi-stationary circulation anomalies in the extratropical South Pacific| responsible for the development of the southern branch of the '' horseshoe '' El Nino pattern. The change of the background SST state that occurred in the late 1970s over the Indian Ocean may also explain why ENSO evolution is different before and after the 1976-77 regime shift. These results shed some light on the possible influence of global warming or decadal fluctuations on El Nino evolution through changes in teleconnection patterns between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. 6999,2005,3,4,Industrial processing versus home cooking: An environmental comparison between three ways to prepare a meal,Today there is a strong trend in Sweden for industrially processed meals to replace homemade meals. In the public debate this is often claimed to increase the environmental impact from foods. In the study presented in this article| we used life-cycle assessment to quantify the environmental impact of three meals: homemade| semiprepared| and ready-to-eat. The differences in environmental impact between the meals were small; the ready-to-eat meal used the most energy| whereas the homemade meal had higher emissions causing eutrophication and global warming. The dominating contributor to the environmental impact was agriculture| accounting for 30% of the impact related to energy and 95% of that related to eutrophication. Industry| packaging| and consumer home transport and food preparation also contributed significantly. Important factors were raw material use| energy efficiency in industry and households| packaging| and residue treatment. To decrease the overall environmental impact of food consumption| improvements in agriculture are very important| together with raw-material use within industry and households. 1794,2005,2,4,Influence of land use on plant community composition and diversity in Highland Sourveld grassland in the southern Drakensberg| South Africa,1. Biodiversity conservation of grasslands in the face of transformation and global climate change will depend mainly on rangelands because of insufficient conservation areas in regions suited to agriculture. Transformed vegetation (pastures| crops and plantations) is not expected to conserve much biodiversity. This study examined the impact of land use on the plant diversity and community composition of the southern Drakensberg grasslands in South Africa| which are threatened with complete transformation to pastures| crops and plantations. 2. The main land uses in this high rainfall region are: ranching or dairy production under private tenure using indigenous grassland| pastures (Eragrostis curvula| kikuyu and ryegrass) and maize; plantation forestry; communal tenure (maize and rangelands); and conservation. 3. Plant diversity and composition were assessed using Whittaker plots. Transformed cover types were depauperate in species and ranged from kikuyu (1.4 species m(-2)) and ryegrass (2.9)| to pine plantation (3.1)| E. curvula pasture (3.1)| commercial maize (3.2) and communal maize (7.8). With the exception of pine plantations| these communities supported mostly exotic (50 of 70 species) or ruderal indigenous species and made little contribution to plant species conservation. Abandoned communal cropland reverted to an indigenous grassland almost devoid of exotic species within c. 20 years. 4. It was predicted that frequently cultivated sites (maize and ryegrass) would support less diversity than long-lived pastures (kikuyu and E. curvula). This was contradicted by the relatively high species diversity of communal maize fields| which was attributed to a lack of herbicides| and the depauperate communities of kikuyu and of E. curvula pasture| which were attributed| respectively| to a dense growth form and a severe mowing regime. 5. Pine plantations harboured fourfold more indigenous species per plot (27) than other transformed types. Species were mostly shade-tolerant grassland relics that had persisted for 12 years since planting| and some forest colonizers. Indigenous species were unlikely to be maintained because of aggressive invasion by the exotic Rubus cuneifolius and severe disturbance associated with tree harvest and replanting. 6. The richness of indigenous grasslands was expected to differ in response to grazing pressure but they differed only in composition. Grasslands were dominated by grasses| despite the richness of herbaceous species. The dominance of Themeda triandra was reduced under livestock grazing in favour of more grazing-tolerant species. Exotic species were inconspicuous except for the dicotyledon Richardia brasiliensis| a subdominant under communal grazing. 7. Southern Drakensberg grasslands are probably now stocked with livestock six- to 35-fold higher than during pre-settlement times. A grassland protected for c. 50 years supported twofold greater richness (101 species plot(-1)) than grazed grasslands| suggesting that a 150-year history of increased mammalian grazing had already reduced plant diversity. 8. Synthesis and applications. Land acquisition is costly| thus conservation of plant diversity in the southern Drakensberg requires a policy that inhibits transformation of rangelands. This can be achieved by enhancing their economic viability without changing the vegetation composition. Their inherent value must be recognized| such as for water production. The viability of commercial ranches can be improved by increasing their size. Conservation efforts need to be focused on plant taxa that only occur on unprotected rangelands. 7050,2005,3,3,Injection technology of combustible dust in direct melting furnace for municipal solid waste,In the field of municipal solid waste disposal| the direct melting process of the coke-bed type shaft furnace is effective in prolonging the useful life of the final disposal sites and reducing harmful matter such as dioxins. However| recently| it has become necessary to reduce coke consumption for the direct inching process in order to prevent global warming and reduce maintenance costs. Accordingly| the authors have developed technology for injecting various combustibles through the tuyeres of the direct inciting furnace. In particular| combustible dust in the pyrolysis gas dischanged from the furnace top was focused to reduce coke consumption. In this study| some experiments oil combustible dust injection through the tuyeres were carried out by using an experimental plant and a commercial facility. The main results obtained are as follows: (1) Combustible dust injected through the lower tuyeres is consumed by combustion and melting in the furnace. This technology is effective in reducing coke consumption and fly ash. (2) Combustible dust injection through the tuyeres maintains low Pb concentration in the slag even under the condition of low coke ratio. Moreover| combustibility in the combustion chamber is improved| and the generation of dioxins is suppressed. 7032,2005,2,4,Insect seasonality: circle map analysis of temperature-driven life cycles,Maintaining an adaptive seasonality| with life cycle events occurring at appropriate times of year and in synchrony with cohorts and ephemeral resources| is a basic ecological requisite for many cold-blooded organisms. There are many mechanisms for synchronizing developmental milestones| such as egg laying (oviposition)| egg hatching| cocoon opening| and the emergence of adults. These are often irreversible| specific to particular life stages| and include diapause| an altered physiological state which can be reversed by some synchronizing environmental cue (e.g. photoperiod). However| many successful organisms display none of these mechanisms for maintaining adaptive seasonality. In this paper| we briefly review the mathematical relationship between environmental temperatures and developmental timing and discuss the consequences of viewing these models as circle maps from the cycle of yearly oviposition dates and temperatures to oviposition dates for subsequent generations. Of particular interest biologically are life cycles which are timed to complete in exactly 1 year| or univoltine cycles. Univoltinism| associated with reproductive success for many temperate species| is related to stable fixed points of the developmental circle map. Univoltine fixed points are stable and robust in broad temperature bands| but lose stability suddenly to maladaptive cycles at the edges of these bands. Adaptive seasonality may therefore break down with little warning with constantly increasing or decreasing temperature change| as in scenarios for global warming. These ideas are illustrated and explored in the context of Mountain Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) occurring in the marginal thermal habitat of central Idaho's Rocky Mountains. Applications of these techniques have not been widely explored by the applied math community| but are likely to provide great insight into the response of biological systems to climate change. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 7083,2005,3,3,Integrated pyrolysis regenerated plant (IPRP): An efficient and scalable concept for gas turbine based energy conversion from biomass and waste,A massive effort towards sustainability is necessary to prevent global warming and energy sources impoverishment: both biomass and waste to energy conversion may represent key actions to reach this goal. At the present| state of the art available technologies for biomass and waste to energy conversion are similar and include low to mid efficiency grate incineration or fluidized bed combustion with steam power cycles or mid to high efficiency gas turbine based cycles through integrated gasification technology. Nevertheless| these plants are all available from mid-to-high scale range that can be highly intrusive on protected areas and socially unacceptable. This paper proposes an innovative| low cost| high efficiency plant in which the residue is gasified in the absence of oxygen (pyrolysis)| in a rotary kiln| by means of a highly regenerative gas turbine based cycle. Pyrolysis is preferred to gasification| because the syngas obtained has a higher low heating value and produces char or tar as a by-product with an interesting energy content to be re-utilized inside the cycle. Different plant configurations are proposed and discussed through principal thermodynamic variables parametric analysis. Results show that very interesting efficiencies are obtainable in the 30-40% range for every plant scale. This fact shows how IPRP technology can provide an interesting alternative to traditional technologies| especially for the small size (below 5MW). Moreover the IPRP technology provides a unique solution for microscale (below 500 kW) power plants| opening a new and competitive possibility for distributed biomass or waste to energy conversion systems where low environmental and social impact turns into higher interest and positive dissemination effect. 1885,2005,3,3,Interactive effects of carbon dioxide| temperature| and ultraviolet-B radiation on soybean (Glycine max L.) flower and pollen morphology| pollen production| germination| and tube lengths,Plant reproduction is highly vulnerable to global climate change components such as carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2])| temperature (T)| and ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation. The objectives of this study were to determine the effects of season-long exposure to treatments of [CO2] at 360 (control) and 720 mumol mol(-1) (+CO2)| temperature at 30/22degreesC (control) and 38/30degreesC (+T) and UV-B radiation 0 (control) and 10 W m(-2) d(-1) (+UV-B) on flower and pollen morphology| pollen production| germination| and tube lengths of six soybean genotypes (D 88-5320| D 90-9216| Stalwart III| PI 471938| DG 5630RR| and DP 4933RR) in sunlit| controlled environment chambers. The control treatment had 360 mumol mol(-1) [CO2] at 30/22degreesC and 0 W UV-B. Plants grown either at +UV-B or +T| alone or in combination| produced smaller flowers with shorter standard petal and staminal column lengths. Flowers so produced had less pollen with poor pollen germination and shorter tube lengths. Pollen produced by the flowers of these plants appeared shrivelled without apertures and with disturbed exine ornamentation even at +CO2 conditions. The damaging effects of +T and +UV-B were not ameliorated by +CO2 conditions. Based on the total stress response index (TSRI)| pooled individual component responses over all the treatments| the genotypes were classified as tolerant (DG 5630RR| D 88-5320: TSRI >-790)| intermediate (D 90-9216| PI 471938: TSRI <-790 to >-1026)| and sensitive (Stalwart III| DP 4933RR: TSRI <-1026). The differences in sensitivity identified among genotypes imply the options for selecting genotypes with tolerance to environmental stresses projected to occur in the future climates. 7209,2005,2,4,Interactive effects of elevated CO2| N deposition and climate change on plant litter quality in a California annual grassland,Although global changes can alter ecosystem nutrient dynamics indirectly as a result of their effects on plant litter quality| the interactive effects of global changes on plant litter remain largely unexplored in natural communities. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2| N deposition| warming and increased precipitation on the composition of organic compounds in plant litter in a fully-factorial experiment conducted in a California annual grassland. While lignin increased within functional groups under elevated CO2| this effect was attenuated by warming in grasses and by water additions in forbs. CO2-induced increases in lignin within functional groups also were counteracted by an increase in the relative biomass of forbs| which contained less lignin than grasses. Consequently| there was no net change in the overall lignin content of senesced tissue at the plot level under elevated CO2. Nitrate additions increased N in both grass and forb litter| although this effect was attenuated by water additions. Relative to changes in N within functional groups| changes in functional group dominance had a minor effect on overall litter N at the plot level. Nitrate additions had the strongest effect on decomposition| increasing lignin losses from Avena litter and interacting with water additions to increase decomposition of litter of other grasses. Increases in lignin that resulted from elevated CO2 had no effect on decomposition but elevated CO2 increased N losses from Avena litter. Overall| the interactions among elements of global change were as important as single-factor effects in influencing plant litter chemistry. However| with the exception of variation in N| litter quality had little influence on decomposition over the short term. 1833,2005,4,4,Interdisciplinary oceanographic observations: the wave of the future,Oceanographic measurements| though difficult and expensive| are essential for effective study| stewardship| preservation| and management of our oceanic and atmospheric systems. Ocean sciences have been driven by technologies enabling new observations| discoveries| and modelling of diverse interdisciplinary phenomena. Despite rapid advances in ocean sampling capabilities| the numbers of disciplinary variables that are necessary to solve oceanographic problems are large and increasing. In addition| the time and space scales of key processes span over ten orders of magnitude; presently| there remain major spectral gaps in our sampling. Thus| undersampling presents the main limitation to our understanding of global climate change; variability in fish biomass and regime shifts; and episodic and extreme events. Fortunately| recent advances in ocean platforms and in situ autonomous sampling systems and satellite sensors are enabling unprecedented rates of data acquisition as well as the expansion of temporal and spatial coverage. Consequently| improved sampling strategies will lead to a reduction in ocean forecasting error for predictions of a multitude of atmospheric and oceanic processes. Nonetheless| major challenges remain to massively increase the variety and quantity of ocean measurements and to effectively coordinate| synthesize| and distribute oceanographic data sets. In particular| numbers of measurements are limited by the costs of instruments and their deployment as well as data processing and production of useful data products and visualizations. Looking forward| many novel and innovative technologies involving computing| nanotechnology| robotics| information and telemetry technologies| space sciences| and molecular biology are being developed at a fast pace for numerous applications (Kaku| 1997; Kurzweil| 1999). It is anticipated that several of these can and will be transitioned to the ocean sciences and will prove to be extremely beneficial for oceanographers in the next few decades. Already| autonomous| 'robotic' in situ sampling| high spectral resolution optical and chemical instrumentation| multi-frequency acoustics| and biomolecular techniques are being utilized by a limited number of oceanographers. Also| increased temporal and spatial sampling capabilities for expanding numbers of interdisciplinary variables are being accelerated thanks to both new technologies and utilization of data assimilation models coupled with autonomous sampling platforms. Data networks coupled with internet connectivity are rapidly increasing access to and utilization of data sets. In this essay| we review recent technological progress for solving some key oceanographic problems and highlight some of the foreseeable challenges and opportunities of ocean science technologies and their applications. 6920,2005,4,3,Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G - I. Near-surface temperature| precipitation and mean sea level pressure,The internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHO-G is analysed using near-surface temperature| precipitation and mean sea level pressure variables| and is compared with observations and other coupled climate model simulations. ECHO-G requires annual mean flux adjustments for heat and freshwater in order to simulate no significant climate drift for 1000 yr| but no flux adjustments for momentum. The ECHO-G control run captures well most aspects of the observed seasonal and annual climatology and of the interannual to decadal variability of the three variables. Model biases are very close to those in ECHAM4 (atmospheric component of ECHO-G) stand-alone integrations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature. A trend comparison between observed and modelled near-surface temperatures shows that the observed near-surface global warming is larger than internal variability produced by ECHO-G| supporting previous studies. The simulated global mean near-surface temperatures| however| show a 2-yr spectral peak which is linked with a strong biennial bias of energy in the El Nino Southern Oscillation signal. Consequently| the interannual variability (3-9 yr) is underestimated. 7041,2005,3,4,Investigations of methane emissions from rice cultivation in Indian context,The increasing demand of the growing population requires enhancement in the production of rice. This has a direct bearing on the global environment since the rice cultivation is one of the major contributors to the methane emissions. As the rice cultivation is intensified with the current practices and technologies| the methane fluxes from paddy fields will substantially rise. Improved high yielding rice varieties together with efficient cultivation techniques will certainly contribute to the curtailment of the methane emission fluxes. In this paper| the system dynamic approach is used for estimating the methane emissions from rice fields in India till the year 2020. Mitigation options studied for curtailing the methane emissions include rice production management| use of low methane emitting varieties of rice| water management and fertilizer amendment. The model is validated quantitatively and sensitivity tests are carried out to examine the robustness of the model. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7143,2005,4,3,IR spectrum and radiative forcing of CF4 revisited,Carbon tetrafluoride (CF4) is included as a greenhouse gas within the Kyoto Protocol. There are significant discrepancies in the reported integrated infrared (IR) absorption cross section of CF4 leading to uncertainty in its contribution to climate change. To reduce this uncertainty| the IR spectrum of CF4 was measured in two different laboratories| in 0 933 hPa of air diluent at 296 +/- 2K over the wavelength range 600-3700 cm(-1) using spectral resolutions of 0.03 or 0.50 cm(-1). There was no discernable effect of diluent gas pressure or spectral resolution on the integrated IR absorption| and a value of the integrated absorption cross section of (1.90 +/- 0.17) x 10(-16) cm(2) molecule(-1) cm(-1) was derived. The radiative efficiency (radiative forcing per ppbv) and GWP (relative to CO2) of CF4 were calculated to be 0.102 W m(-2) ppbv(-1) and 7200 (100 year time horizon). The GWP for CF4 calculated herein is approximately 30% greater than that given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [ 2002] partly due to what we believe to be an erroneously low value for the IR absorption strength of CF4 assumed in the calculations adopted by the IPCC. The radiative efficiency of CF4 is predicted to decrease by up to 40% as the CF4 forcing starts to saturate and overlapping absorption by CH4| H2O| and N2O in the atmosphere increases over the period 1750-2100. The radiative forcing attributable to increased CF4 levels in the atmosphere from 1750 to 2000 is estimated to be 0.004 W m(-2) and is predicted to be up to 0.033 W m(-2) from 2000 to 2100| dependent on the scenario. 1901,2005,4,4,Irradiance models,Measurements of solar irradiance have revealed variations at all the sampled time scales (ranging from minutes to the length of the solar cycle). One important task of models is to identify the causes of the observed (total and spectral) irradiance variations. Another major aim is to reconstruct irradiance over time scales longer than sampled by direct measurements in order to consider if and to what extent solar irradiance variations may be responsible for global climate change. Here| we describe recent efforts to model solar irradiance over the current and the previous two solar cycles. These irradiance models are remarkably successful in reproducing the observed total and spectral irradiance| although further improvements are still possible. (c) 2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7065,2005,2,4,Irrigation of Mediterranean crops with saline water: from physiology to management practices,Salinity is currently one of the most severe abiotic factors limiting agricultural production. The high rates of population growth and global warming are expected to further exacerbate the threat of salinity| especially in areas with a semi-arid climate as in the Mediterranean region. Salinity affects plant performance through the development of osmotic stress and disruption of ion homeostasis| which in turn cause metabolic dysfunctions. Particular emphasis is given on the impacts of salinity on photosynthesis because of its potential restrictions on plant growth and yield. The inhibition of photosynthesis under low to moderate salinity stress appear to be mainly attributed to diffusional limitations (stomatal and mesophyll conductance)| even for salt-sensitive fruit trees such as citrus trees. In contrast| biochemical limitations to photosynthesis appear to occur only when stress becomes heavy. A thorough understanding of the mechanisms conferring salt tolerance is therefore essential under the expected climatic change| as it will enable the selection of salt-tolerant genotypes and the adoption of appropriate practices to alleviate salinity impacts on agricultural production. In fruit trees| salt tolerance is mainly associated with their ability to restrict salt accumulation in the leaves. Cell features of specific tissues| morphological factors and water-use efficiency regulate salt accumulation in the shoot. Furthermore| most fruit trees display a rapid osmotic adjustment in response to salinity| which is mainly attributed to the accumulation of inorganic ions and carbohydrates. Little information is available about the ability of horticultural crops to detoxify reactive oxygen species and to synthesize compatible solutes and hence on the potential contribution of these mechanism to induce salt tolerance in horticultural crops. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6795,2005,2,1,Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool?,Freezing temperatures strongly influence vegetation in the hottest desert of North America| in part determining both its overall boundary and distributions of plant species within. To evaluate recent variability of freezing temperatures in this context| minimum temperature data from weather stations in the Sonoran Desert are examined. Data show widespread warming trends in winter and spring| decreased frequency of freezing temperatures| lengthening of the freeze-free season| and increased minimum temperatures per winter year. Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does| however| correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human-dominated global warming. With warming expected to continue at faster rates throughout the 21st century| potential ecological responses may include contraction of the overall boundary of the Sonoran Desert in the south-east and expansion northward| eastward| and upward in elevation| as well as changes to distributions of plant species within and other characteristics of Sonoran Desert ecosystems. Potential trajectories of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert region may be affected or made more difficult to predict by uncertain changes in warm season precipitation variability and fire. Opportunities now exist to investigate ecosystem response to regional climate disturbance| as well as to anticipate and plan for continued warming in the Sonoran Desert region. 6955,2005,3,4,Isolation and determination of cultural characteristics of a new highly CO2 tolerant fresh water microalgae,Fresh water microalgae| which has high CO2| tolerance| were isolated and its cultural characteristics were investigated. The ZY-1 strain was identified as genus Chlorella. It showed maximum growth at 10% (v/v) CO2 enriched air flowing condition| and a good growth rate in a broad range of physically controllable conditions| including CO2 concentration up to 70% (v/v)| CO2 enriched air flow rate| temperature and pH value. The results indicated the feasibility of the ZY-1 strain for fixing CO2 from stack gases. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7136,2005,2,4,Jokulhlaups at Tulsequah Glacier| northwestern British columbia| Canada,Jokulhlaups from lakes dammed by Tulsequah Glacier in northwestern British Columbia have occurred regularly since the early twentieth century. The floods commenced after decades of downwasting and retreat of the glacier from its Holocene maximum position| which it achieved in the nineteenth century. Hydrometric data and other records are used to reconstruct the times and peak discharges of floods from two glacier-dammed lakes. Tulsequah Lake formed in the early 1900s when a tributary glacier separated from Tulsequah Glacier| creating an ice-free embayment between the two. The lake grew rapidly in surface area and volume in the first half of the twentieth century| but later| with continued glacier retreat| it decreased in size. The first jokulhlaups from Tulsequah Lake were the largest. Peak and total discharges decreased as the lake became smaller. Today| Tulsequah Lake is small| and it will disappear completely if Tulsequah Glacier retreats any further. A second lake (Lake No Lake)| however| has formed and grown in size as Tulsequah Lake has diminished. Lake No Lake developed from a subglacial water body in a tributary valley| 7 km upglacier from Tulsequah Lake. Like Tulsequah Lake| Lake No Lake rapidly grew in area and volume during its youth| and in the 1970s it began to generate its own jokulhlaups. Lake No Lake appears to be following the same evolutionary path as Tulsequah Lake - its volume is now decreasing due to downwasting of Tulsequah Glacier| and its jokulhlaups are beginning to diminish. As Tulsequah Glacier continues to shrink in response to climatic warming| additional glacier-dammed lakes may form| renewing the cycle of outburst flood activity. Such behaviour can be expected in other high mountains because most alpine glaciers are retreating in response to global warming. 6989,2005,3,4,Kinetics and mechanism of (CF3)(2)CHOCH3 reaction with OH radicals in an environmental reaction chamber,The atmospheric chemistry of (CF3)(2)CHOCH3| a possible HCFC/HFC alternative| was studied using a smog chamber/FT-IR technique. OH radicals were prepared by the photolysis of ozone in a 200-Torr H2O/O-3/O-2 gas mixture held in an 11.5-dm(3) temperature-controlled chamber. The rate constant| k(1)| for the reaction of (CF3)(2)CHOCH3 with OH radicals was determined to be (1.40 +/- 0.28) x 10(-12) exp[(-550 +/- 60)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) by means of a relative rate method at 253-328 K. The value of k(1) at 298 K was (2.25 +/- 0.04) X 10(-13) cml molecule(-1) s(-1). The random errors are reported with 2-standard deviations| and potential systematic errors of 15% could increase k(1). In considering OH-radical reactions| we estimated the tropospheric lifetime of (CF3)(2)CHOCH3 to be 2.0 months using the rate constant at 288 K. The degradation mechanism of (CF3)2CHOCH3 initiated by OH radicals was also investigated using FT-IR spectroscopy at 298 K. Products (CF3)(2)CHOC(O)H| CF3C(OH)(2)CF3| CF3C(O)OCH3| and COF2 were identified and quantified. The branching ratio| k(1a)/k(1b)| was estimated to be 2.1:1 for reactions (CF3)(2)CHOCH3 + OH -> (CF3)(2)CHOCH2center dot+ H2O (k(1a)) and (CF3)(2)CHOCH3 + OH -> (CF3)(2)(COCH3)-O-center dot + H2O (k(1b)). 6857,2005,2,4,Lake responses to reduced nutrient loading - an analysis of contemporary long-term data from 35 case studies,1. This synthesis examines 35 long-term (5-35 years| mean: 16 years) lake re-oligotrophication studies. It covers lakes ranging from shallow (mean depth < 5 m and/or polymictic) to deep (mean depth up to 177 m)| oligotrophic to hypertrophic (summer mean total phosphorus concentration from 7.5 to 3500 mu g L-1 before loading reduction)| subtropical to temperate (latitude: 28-65 degrees)| and lowland to upland (altitude: 0-481 m). Shallow north-temperate lakes were most abundant. 2. Reduction of external total phosphorus (TP) loading resulted in lower in-lake TP concentration| lower chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration and higher Secchi depth in most lakes. Internal loading delayed the recovery| but in most lakes a new equilibrium for TP was reached after 10-15 years| which was only marginally influenced by the hydraulic retention time of the lakes. With decreasing TP concentration| the concentration of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) also declined substantially. 3. Decreases (if any) in total nitrogen (TN) loading were lower than for TP in most lakes. As a result| the TN : TP ratio in lake water increased in 80% of the lakes. In lakes where the TN loading was reduced| the annual mean in-lake TN concentration responded rapidly. Concentrations largely followed predictions derived from an empirical model developed earlier for Danish lakes| which includes external TN loading| hydraulic retention time and mean depth as explanatory variables. 4. Phytoplankton clearly responded to reduced nutrient loading| mainly reflecting declining TP concentrations. Declines in phytoplankton biomass were accompanied by shifts in community structure. In deep lakes| chrysophytes and dinophytes assumed greater importance at the expense of cyanobacteria. Diatoms| cryptophytes and chrysophytes became more dominant in shallow lakes| while no significant change was seen for cyanobacteria. 5. The observed declines in phytoplankton biomass and chl a may have been further augmented by enhanced zooplankton grazing| as indicated by increases in the zooplankton : phytoplankton biomass ratio and declines in the chl a : TP ratio at a summer mean TP concentration of < 100-150 mu g L-1. This effect was strongest in shallow lakes. This implies potentially higher rates of zooplankton grazing and may be ascribed to the observed large changes in fish community structure and biomass with decreasing TP contribution. In 82% of the lakes for which data on fish are available| fish biomass declined with TP. The percentage of piscivores increased in 80% of those lakes and often a shift occurred towards dominance by fish species characteristic of less eutrophic waters. 6. Data on macrophytes were available only for a small subsample of lakes. In several of those lakes| abundance| coverage| plant volume inhabited or depth distribution of submerged macrophytes increased during oligotrophication| but in others no changes were observed despite greater water clarity. 7. Recovery of lakes after nutrient loading reduction may be confounded by concomitant environmental changes such as global warming. However| effects of global change are likely to run counter to reductions in nutrient loading rather than reinforcing re-oligotrophication. 1857,2005,5,4,Large temperature variability in the southern African tropics since the Last Glacial Maximum,The role of the tropics in global climate change is actively debated| particularly in regard to the timing and magnitude of thermal and hydrological response. Continuous| high-resolution temperature records through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) from tropical oceans have provided much insight but surface temperature reconstructions do not exist from tropical continental environments. Here we used the TEX86 paleotemperature proxy to reconstruct mean annual lake surface temperatures through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Lake Malawi| East Africa (9&DEG;-14&DEG; S). We find a &SIM; 3.5&DEG; C overall warming since the LGM| with temperature reversals of &SIM; 2&DEG; C during the Younger Dryas (12.5 ka BP) and at 8.2 ka BP. Maximum Holocene temperatures of &SIM; 29&DEG; C were found at 5 ka BP| a period preceding severe drought in Africa. These results suggest a substantial thermal response of southeastern tropical Africa to deglaciation and to varying conditions during the Holocene. 7137,2005,5,4,Late Holocene temperature record from southwestern Australia: evidence of global warming from deep boreholes,A ground surface temperature history for the lost 500 years was created from the inversion of geophysical temperature logs in four deep ( > 1400 m) boreholes on the Blackwood Plateau in southwestern Australia. Modelled temperature changes show close agreement with ground surface temperature histories from elsewhere in the world for this period and indicate that the Blackwood Plateau has experienced a 0.4 K increase in mean temperature between the beginning of the sixteenth century and the 1980s| with more than half of the increase having taken place after 1900| The modelling indicates that the highest temperatures in the region for the last 500 years were recorded during the twentieth century| and that the current rate of temperature change of more than 0.5 degrees K per century is higher than at any other time during this time period. 7040,2005,5,4,Late Ordovician global warming - The Boda event,There is substantial evidence for mid-Ashgillian global warming before the latest Ordovician Hirnantian glaciation| as shown by the movement of previously lower latitude benthic faunas such as trilobites and brachiopods to progressively higher latitudes and by an increase in endemic faunas at low latitudes. This is shown by faunal dynamics on several paleocontinents and endorsed by published evidence of warmer-water sediments from Gondwana and elsewhere. We term this global warming the Boda event. 1853,2005,2,4,Latitudinal gradients of parasite species richness in primates,Infectious disease risk is thought to increase in the tropics| but little is known about latitudinal gradients of parasite diversity. We used a comparative data set encompassing 330 parasite species reported from 119 primate hosts to examine latitudinal gradients in the diversity of micro and macroparasites per primate host species. Analyses conducted with and without controlling for host phylogeny showed that parasite species richness increased closer to the equator for protozoan parasites| but not for viruses or helminths. Relative to other major parasite groups| protozoa reported from wild primates were transmitted disproportionately by arthropod vectors. Within the protozoa| our results revealed that vector-borne parasites showed a highly significant latitudinal gradient in species richness. This higher diversity of vector-borne protozoa near the tropics could be influenced by a greater abundance or diversity of biting arthropods in the tropics| or by climatic effects on vector behaviour and parasite development. Many vector-borne diseases| such as leishmaniasis| trypanosomiasis| and malaria pose risks to both humans and wildlife| and nearly one-third of the protozoan parasites from free-living primates in our data set have been reported to infect humans. Because the geographical distribution and prevalence of many vector-borne parasites are expected to increase because of global warming| these results are important for predicting future parasite-mediated threats to biodiversity and human health. 6767,2005,3,4,LCA of manufacturing lead-free copper alloys,To promote the recycling of copper alloy scrap| we developed a new technique for removing Pb from copper alloy scrap containing 2-6 mass% Pb. However| we must evaluate quantitatively the level of environmental impact reduction that can be obtained using this new technology. In this study| a manufacturing system that produces Pb-free copper alloy products using copper alloy scrap was assessed by means of life cycle assessment (LCA). The superiority of the new manufacturing system that uses Pb-free copper alloy scrap over the conventional one that uses virgin materials was investigated from the viewpoint of environmental impact. LCA software (JEMAI-LCA) was used to assess environmental impacts such as global warming| acidification| energy Consumption and resource consumption. We assessed the raw material acquisition and casting process of Pb-free copper alloy products. The subsequent processes such as machining. assembling| transportation| use and recycling/waste processing are not taken into account in the environmental impact assessment. The results show that the conversion of the conventional system that uses virgin materials into the new one that uses Pb-free copper alloy scrap decreases the environmental impact| significantly. This is attributed to the nonutilization of virgin materials and the decrease in energy consumption during the casting process. 1868,2005,2,4,Leaf mineral nutrition of Arctic plants in response to warming and deeper snow in northern Alaska,Articulating the consequences of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystem biogeochemistry is a critical component of Arctic system studies. Leaf mineral nutrition responses of tundra plants is an important measure of changes in organismic and ecosystem attributes because leaf nitrogen and carbon contents effect photosynthesis| primary production| carbon budgets| leaf litter| and soil organic matter decomposition as well as herbivore forage quality. In this study| we used a long term experiment where snow depth and summer temperatures were increased independently and together to articulate how a series of climate change scenarios would affect leaf N| leaf C| and leaf C: N for vegetation in dry and moist tussock tundra in northern Alaska| USA. Our findings were: 1) moist tundra vegetation is much more responsive to this suite of climate change scenarios than dry tundra with up to a 25% increase in leaf N; 2) life forms exhibit divergence in leaf C| N| and C:N with deciduous shrubs and graminoids having almost identical leaf N contents; 3) for some species| leaf mineral nutrition responses to these climate change scenarios are tundra type dependent (Betula)| but for others (Vaccinium vitis-idaea)| strong responses are exhibited regardless of tundra type; and 4) the seasonal patterns and magnitudes of leaf C and leaf N in deciduous and evergreen shrubs were responsive to conditions of deeper snow in winter. Leaf N is was generally higher immediately after emergence from the deep snow experimental treatments and leaf N was higher during the subsequent summer and fall| and the leaf C:N were lower| especially in deciduous shrubs. These findings indicate that coupled increases in snow depth and warmer summer temperatures will alter the magnitudes and patterns of leaf mineral nutrition and that the longterm consequences of these changes may feed-forward and affect ecosystem processes. 6903,2005,2,4,Lessons from the unusual impacts of an abnormal winter in the USA,Economic impacts from the near record warm and snow-free winter of 2001-2 in the United States were assessed to ascertain their dimensions and relevance to issues like climate prediction and climate change. Unusual impacts resulted and embraced numerous sectors (heating/energy use| construction| tourism| insurance| government| and retail sales). Many outcomes were gains/benefits totalling $19.6 billion| with losses of $8.2 billion. Some economists identified the sizable positive impacts as a factor in the nation's recovery from an on-going recession stemmingfrom the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001. Understanding the impacts of such a winter reveals bow climate predictions of such conditions could have great utility in minimising the losses and maximising the gains. The results also have relevance to the global warming issue since most climate models project future average winter temperature and snowfall conditions in the United States to be similar to those experienced in 2001-2. 7135,2005,2,3,Lethal effects of experimental warming approximating a future climate scenario on southern African quartz-field succulents: a pilot study,Here we examine the response of succulents in a global biodiversity hot spot to experimental warming consistent with a future African climate scenario. Passive daytime warming (averaging 5.5degreesC above ambient) of the natural vegetation was achieved with 18 transparent hexagonal open-top chamber arrays randomized in three different quartz-field communities. After 4-months summer treatment| the specialized-dwarf and shrubby succulents displayed between 2.1 and 4.9 times greater plant and canopy mortalities in the open-top chambers than in the control plots. Those surviving in cooler ventilated areas and shaded refuges in the chambers had lower starch concentrations and water contents; the shrubby succulents also exhibited diminished chlorophyll concentrations. It is concluded that current thermal regimes are likely to be closely proximate to tolerable extremes for many endemic succulents in the region| and that anthropogenic warming could significantly exceed their thermal thresholds. Further investigation is required to elucidate the importance of associated moisture deficits in these warming experiments| a potential consequence of supplementary (fog and dew) precipitation interception by open-top chambers and higher evaporation therein| on plant mortalities. 7128,2005,3,3,Life Cycle Analysis of wind-fuel cell integrated system,After ratification of the Kyoto Protocol| Canada's Kyoto greenhouse gas (GHG) emission target is 571 Mt of CO2 equivalent emitted per year by 2010; however| if current emission trends continue| a figure of 809 Mt is projected by 2010 (Cote C. Basic of clean development mechanism-joint implementation and overview of CDM project cycle| 2003 regional workshop on CDM-JI| February 2003| Halifax). This underscores the need for additional reduction of 240 Mt. The Federal Government Action Plan 2000 aims to reduce this gap from 240 to 65 Mt (Cote C. Basic of clean development mechanism-joint implementation and overview of CDM project cycle| 2003 regional workshop on CDM-JI| February 2003| Halifax). In order to accomplish this goal| renewable energy use in all sectors will be required| and this type of energy is particularly applicable in power generation. Traditional power generation is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions after industrial and transportation sectors (Environment Canada. Canada's Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-1998. Final submission to the UNFCCC Secretariat| 2002 [Available from: http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/resources_reportes-e.html]. Although wind energy| solar power and other forms of renewable energy are non-GHG emitting in their operation| there are GHG emissions in their different stages of life cycle (i.e. material extraction| manufacturing| construction and transportation| etc.). These emissions must be accounted for in order to assess accurately their capacity to reduce GHG emission and meet Kyoto targets. The current trend in electricity generation is towards integrated energy systems. One such proposed system is the wind-fuel cell integrated system for remote communities. This paper presents a detailed Life Cycle Analysis of the wind-fuel cell integrated system for application in Newfoundland and Labrador. The study confirms that wind-fuel integrated system is a zero emission system while in operation. There are significant emissions of GHGs during the production of the various components (wind turbine| fuel cell and electrolyzer). However| the global warming potential| (GWP) of wind-integrated system is far lower (at least by two orders of magnitude) than the conventional diesel system| presently used in remote communities. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7215,2005,3,3,Life cycle assessment of energy from solid waste - part 1: general methodology and results,The overall goal of the present study is to evaluate different strategies for treatment of solid waste in Sweden based on a life cycle perspective. Important goals are to identify advantages and disadvantages of different methods for treatment of solid waste| and to identify critical factors in the systems| including the background systems| which may significantly influence the results. Included in the study are landfilling| incineration| recycling| digestion and composting. The waste fractions considered are the combustible and recyclable or compostable fractions of municipal solid waste. The methodology used is life cycle assessment (LCA). The results can be used for policy decisions as well as strategic decisions on waste management systems. A waste hierarchy suggesting the environmental preference of recycling over incineration over landfilling is often put forward and used in waste policy making. LCAs can be used to test the waste hierarchy and identify situations where the hierarchy is not valid. Our results indicate that the waste hierarchy is valid as a rule of thumb. The results also suggest that a policy promoting recycling of paper and plastic materials| preferably combined with policies promoting the use of plastics replacing plastics made from virgin materials| leads to decreased use of total energy and emissions of gases contributing to global warming. If the waste can replace oil or coal as energy sources| and neither biofuels nor natural gas are alternatives| a policy promoting incineration of paper materials may be successful in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6760,2005,3,4,Life cycle assessment of manufacturing system of lead-free bronze products,Inventory analysis of manufacturing system for both former Pb-free bronze made from virgin materials and new Pb-free bronze made by removing Pb from scrap Pb-bronze was assessed from the view point of life cycle assessment (LCA). The result shows that new manufacturing system of Pb-free bronze made by removing Pb from scrap Pb-bronze reduces such environmental impacts as global warming| acidification| energy consumption| resource consumption significantly. Thus| in LCA perspective| the new manufacturing system using a recycling Pb-free bronze is superior to the former one using virgin materials. 7216,2005,3,4,Life cycle assessment of processes for the treatment of wastewater urban sludge: energy and global warming analysis,This study compares six wastewater sludge treatment scenarios applied to a 300|000 equivalent-inhabitant (eq. inh) wastewater treatment plant: agricultural spreading| fluidised bed incineration| wet oxidation| pyrolysis| incineration in cement kilns and landfill. The study focuses on energy and emissions contributing to global warming over the whole treatment life cycle. As a result| avoided burdens by coproducts are very important in terms of energy consumption and pollutants' emissions. The energy balance suggests that incineration and agricultural spreading have the lowest non-renewable primary energy consumption. For global warming| incineration in cement kilns has the best balance; landfill and agricultural spreading the worst. Results are now being extended to digested sludges and to impacts on human health and ecosystems. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7195,2005,3,4,Life cycle assessment of various cropping systems utilized for producing biofuels: Bioethanol and biodiesel,A life cycle assessment of different cropping systems emphasizing corn and soybean production was performed| assuming that biomass from the cropping systems is utilized for producing biofuels (i.e.| ethanol and biodiesel). The functional unit is defined as 1 ha of arable land producing biomass for biofuels to compare the environmental performance of the different cropping systems. The external functions are allocated by introducing alternative product systems (the system expansion allocation approach). Nonrenewable energy consumption| global warming impact| acidification and eutrophication are considered as potential environmental impacts and estimated by characterization factors given by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-TRACI). The benefits of corn stover removal are (1) lower nitrogen related environmental burdens from the soil| (2) higher ethanol production rate per unit arable land| and (3) energy recovery from lignin-rich fermentation residues| while the disadvantages of corn stover removal are a lower accumulation rate of soil organic carbon and higher fuel consumption in harvesting corn stover. Planting winter cover crops can compensate for some disadvantages (i.e.| soil organic carbon levels and soil erosion) of removing corn stover. Cover crops also permit more corn stover to be harvested. Thus| utilization of corn stover and winter cover crops can improve the eco-efficiency of the cropping systems. When biomass from the cropping systems is utilized for biofuel production| all the cropping systems studied here offer environmental benefits in terms of nonrenewable energy consumption and global warming impact. Therefore utilizing biomass for biofuels would save nonrenewable energy| and reduce greenhouse gases. However| unless additional measures such as planting cover crops were taken| utilization of biomass for biofuels would also tend to increase acidification and eutrophication| primarily because large nitrogen (and phosphorus)-related environmental burdens are released from the soil during cultivation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7225,2005,3,2,Life cycle assessment study of biopolymers (Polyhydroxyalkanoates) derived from no-tilled corn,Goal and Scope. This study attempts to estimate the environmental performance of Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA)| from agricultural production through the PHA fermentation and recovery process - 'cradle to gate'. Two types of PHA production systems are investigated: corn grain based PHA and corn grain and corn stover based PHA. Methods. Corn cultivation data are taken from 14 counties in the Corn Belt states of the United States - Illinois| Indiana| Iowa| Michigan| Minnesota| Ohio| and Wisconsin. The environmental burdens associated with the corn wet milling process| in which dextrose| corn oil| corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed are produced| are allocated to dextrose and its coproducts by the system expansion approach. Greenhouse gases include carbon taken up by soil| nitrous oxide (N2O) released from soil during corn cultivation| carbon contents in biobased products as well as carbon dioxide| methane and nitrous oxide released from industrial processing. The soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics in corn cultivation are predicted by an agro-ecosystem model| the DAYCENT model. The environmental performance of the PHA production system is compared to that of a conventional polymer fulfilling an equivalent function. The environmental performance is addressed as nonrenewable energy and selected potential environmental impacts including global warming| photochemical smog| acidification| and eutrophication. The characterization factors are adapted from the TRACI model (Tools for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and Other Environmental Impacts) developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Results and Discussion. Global warming associated with corn grain based PHA is 1.6-4.1 kg-CO2 eq. kg(-1). The primary contributing process to most environmental impacts except for photochemical smog and eutrophication is the PHA fermentation and recovery process. For photochemical smog and eutrophication| the primary contributing process is corn cultivation due to nitrogen related burdens from soil. The trend of PHA fermentation development shows that the PHA fermentation technology is still immature and continues to improve| thereby also decreasing the environmental impacts. PHA produced in an integrated system| in which corn stover is harvested and used as raw material for PHA along with corn grain| offers global warming credits (negative greenhouse gas emissions)| ranging from -0.28 to -1.9 kg-CO2 eq. kg(-1)| depending on the PHA fermentation technologies employed and significantly reduces the environmental impacts compared to corn based PHA. The significant reductions from the integrated system are due to 1) less environmental impacts in corn cultivation and wet milling| and 2) exporting surplus energy from lignin-rich residues in corn stover process. Conclusions and Outlook. Under the current PHA fermentation technology| corn grain based PHA does not provide an environmental advantage over polystyrene. Corn grain based PHA produced by the near future PHA fermentation technology would be more favorable than polystyrene in terms of nonrenewable energy and global warming due to improvement in the PHA fermentation and recovery process. However| corn grain based PHA produced in even the near future technology does not provide better profiles for other environmental impacts (i.e.| photochemical smog| acidification and eutrophication) than polystyrene. One of the primary reasons for high impacts of PHA in photochemical smog| acidification and eutrophication is the environmental burdens associated with corn cultivation. Thus other approaches to reduce these burdens in the agricultural process (e.g.| use of buffer strips| etc.) are necessary to achieve better profiles for photochemical smog| acidification and eutrophication associated with corn cultivation. PHA produced in the integrated system is more favorable than polystyrene in terms of most environmental impacts considered here except for eutrophication. 6928,2005,3,2,Life cycle GHG emission analysis of power generation systems: Japanese case,This study presents the results of a life cycle analysis (LCA) of greenhouse gas emissions from power generation systems in order to understand the characteristics of these systems from the perspective of global warming. Nine different types of power generation systems were examined: coal-fired| oil-fired| LNG-fired| LNG-combined cycle| nuclear| hydropower| geothermal| wind power and solar-photovoltaic (PV). Life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission per kW h of electricity generated was estimated for the systems using a combined method of process analysis and input-output analysis. First| average power generation systems reflecting the current status in Japan were examined as base cases. Second| the impacts of emerging and future nuclear| wind power and PV technologies were analyzed. Finally| uncertainties associated with some assumptions were examined to help clarify interpretation of the results. (c) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 6969,2005,3,4,Life cycle inventory information of the United States electricity system,Goal and Scope. This study estimates the life cycle inventory (LCI) of the electricity system in the United States| including the 10 NERC (North American Electric Reliability Council) regions| Alaska| Hawaii| off-grid non-utility plants and the US average figures. The greenhouse gas emissions associated with the United States electricity system are also estimated. Methods. The fuel mix of the electricity system based on year 2000 data is used. The environmental burdens associated with raw material extraction| petroleum oil production and transportation for petroleum oil and natural gas to power plants are adopted from the DEAM (TM) LCA database. Coal transportation from a mining site to a power plant is specified with the data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)| which includes the mode of transportation as well as the distance traveled. The gate-to-gate environmental burdens associated with generating electricity from a fossil-fired power plant are obtained from the DEAM (TM) LCA database and the eGRID model developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. For nuclear power plants and hydroelectric power plants| the data from the DEAM (TM) LCA database are used. Results and Discussion. Selected environmental profiles of the US electricity system are presented in the paper version| while the on-line version presents the whole LCI data. The overall US electricity system in the year 2000 released about 2|654 Tg CO2 eq. of greenhouse gas emissions based on 100-year global warming potentials with 193 g CO2 eq. MJe(-1) as an weighted average emission rate per one MJ electricity generated. Most greenhouse gases are released during combusting fossil fuels| accounting for 78-95% of the total. The greenhouse gas emissions released from coal-fired power plants account for 81% of the total greenhouse gas emissions associated with electricity generation| and natural gas-fired power plants contribute about 16% of the total. The most significant regions for the total greenhouse gas emissions are the SERC (Southeastern Electric Reliability Council) and ECAR (East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement) regions| which account for 22% and 21% of the total| respectively. A sensitivity analysis on the generation and consumption based calculations indicates that the environmental profiles of electricity based on consumption are more uncertain than those based on generation unless exchange data from the same year are available because the exchange rates (region to region import and export of electricity) vary significantly from year to year. Conclusions and Outlook. Those who are interested in the LCI data of the US electricity system can refer to the on-line version. When the inventory data presented in the on-tine version are used in a life cycle assessment study| the distribution and transmission losses should be taken into account| which is about 9.5% of the net generation [1]. The comprehensive technical information presented in this study can be used in estimating the environmental burdens when new information on the regional fuel mix or the upstream processes is available. The exchange rates presented in this study also offer useful information in consequential LCI studies. 7106,2005,4,4,Limitations of time-slice experiments for predicting regional climate change over South Asia,While time-slice simulations with atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been used for many years to regionalize climate projections and/or assess their uncertainties| there is still no consensus about the method used to prescribe sea surface temperature (SST) in such experiments. In the present study| the response of the Indian summer monsoon to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols is compared between a reference climate scenario and three sets of time-slice experiments| consisting of parallel integrations for present-day and future climates. Different monthly mean SST boundary conditions have been tested in the present-day integrations: raw climatological SST derived from the reference scenario| observed climatological SST| and observed SST with interannual variability. For future climate| the SST forcing has been obtained by superimposing climatological monthly mean SST anomalies derived from the reference scenario onto the present-day SST boundary conditions. None of these sets of time-slice experiments is able to capture accurately the response of the Indian summer monsoon simulated in the transient scenario. This finding suggests that the ocean-atmosphere coupling is a fundamental feature of the climate system. Neglecting the SST feedback and variability at the intraseasonal to interannual time scales has a significant impact on the projected monsoon response to global warming. Adding interannual variability in the prescribed SST boundary conditions does not mitigate the problem| but can on the contrary reinforce the discrepancies between the forced and coupled experiments. The monsoon response is also shown to depend on the simulated control climate| and can therefore be sensitive to the use of observed rather than model-derived SSTs to drive the present-day atmospheric simulation| as well as to any approximation in the prescribed radiative forcing. While such results do not challenge the use of time-slice experiments for assessing uncertainties and understanding mechanisms in transient scenarios| they emphasize the need for high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs for dynamical downscaling| or at least for high-resolution atmospheric GCMs coupled with a slab or a regional ocean model. 1855,2005,2,4,Linkage mapping of osmotic stress induced genes of oak,Water stress affecting long-lived trees is an important challenge in forestry. Due to global climate change| forest trees will be threatened by extreme conditions like flooding or drought. It is necessary to understand differences in stress tolerance within certain species and to investigate putative relations on genomic level. In this study| osmotic stress induced genes of Quercus ssp. were positioned on two genetic linkage maps of oak. An intra-specific cross 3P*A4 of Quercus robur consisting of 88 offspring and an inter-specific cross 11P*QS29 of Q. robur and Q. petraea comprising 72 full-sibs were analyzed for the inheritance of 14 loci represented by 34 individual single nucleotide polymorphisms. Seven genes in the intra-cross| as well as other six genes in the inter-cross could be mapped and one gene could not be localised due to the severe distortion of the segregation. The collection of expressed sequences involved ribosomal proteins| members of the oxylase/oxygenase gene family| betaine aldehyde dehydrogenase| Dc3 promoter-binding factor| a putative member of the nodulin family| glutathione-S-transferase and proteins with unknown functions. In the inter-cross| two linked markers exhibited 89% deficiency of heterozygosity. Thirteen genes were positioned on ten different oak chromosomes and can serve as orthologous markers in comparative mapping studies within Fagaceae. 6992,2005,2,4,Linking climate and physiology at the population level for a key life-history stage of turtles,Forthcoming climate change is expected to impact the global biota| particularly by altering range limits. However| the roles of early life stages in affecting biogeography and the impact of climate change on reptiles are both poorly understood. Fitness of neonatal reptiles depends greatly on energy reserves and body size| which themselves are affected by abiotic conditions in laboratory experiments performed during embryonic development and posthatching dormancy. To test whether these relationships between environment and physiology hold in nature| we conducted a 6-year field study on a natural northern population of red-eared slider turtles| Trachemys scripta elegans (Wied-Neuwied| 1839). Climatic conditions varied substantially and impacted offspring phenotypes. Consistent with bioenergetic predictions| cohorts that experienced warmer periods of posthatching dormancy had less dry residual yolk mass than similar-sized hatchlings that experienced cooler overwintering periods. Thus| global warming may exert adverse effects on turtle energy reserves important to fitness during crucial early life stages; this negative physiological impact may extend to other ectotherms with obligate| nonfeeding stages. 7104,2005,3,3,Local and global scale structure of bubbly flows in glad (gas lift advance dissolution) system,A gas-liquid flow system can be utilized for sequestering CO2 into the deep ocean| which helps mitigate the global warming. The specific system we have developed for this purpose relies on the gas-lift capability under extensive gas dissolution. In a practical (environmental) application-the so-called "GLAD: Gas Lift Advanced Dissolution" System-for its optimal design and operation| the understanding of physics involved in a wide scale-range of flow phenomena is essential. In this respect| both large and small-scale dynamics of bubbly flows are covered. First| the probability density functions of bubble diameter and bubble velocity as well as the radial profile of void fraction in a pipe of 149-mm diameter are measured. Second| the liquid-phase flow characteristics such as radial distributions of streamwise velocity and fluctuation intensity of velocity components are presented. Third| the motion of isolated single bubbles of 2.6 mm in equivalent diameter is examined. Their wobbling motion and the localized movement of the gas-liquid interface are described in detail via high-speed visualization. The dynamic behavior/structure of the surrounding liquid flow is then discussed on the basis of observations through two-component LDA and two-dimensional PIV measurements. These visualization results suggest that there is a strong influence of type of bubble motion-rectilinear or zigzag-on the fluid flow and the interfacial dynamics. It is confirmed that the local disturbance caused by the bubble oscillating motion| manifested as interfacial fluctuations| is conveyed to the surrounding liquid| enhancing the liquid-phase turbulence. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 6832,2005,4,4,Local and remote impacts of aerosol climate forcing on tropical precipitation,Mechanisms that determine the direct and indirect effects of aerosols on the tropical climate involve moist dynamical processes and have local and remote impacts on regional tropical precipitation. These mechanisms are examined in a climate model of intermediate complexity [quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model ( QTCM)] forced by prescribed aerosol forcing| which is obtained from a general circulation model (ECHAM4). The aerosol reflection is the dominant aerosol forcing| while the aerosol absorption has complex but much weaker influences on the regional tropical precipitation based on the ECHAM4 aerosol forcing. The local effect associated with aerosols contributes negative precipitation anomalies over convective regions by affecting the net energy flux into the atmospheric column. This net energy flux is controlled by the radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere on time scales where surface heat flux is near equilibrium| balancing anomalous solar radiation by evaporation| longwave radiation| and sensible heat. Considering the aerosol absorption effect alone| the associated precipitation anomalies are slightly negative but small when surface heat fluxes are near equilibrium. Two effects found in global warming| the uppedante mechanism and the anomalous gross moist stability mechanism| occur with opposite sign in the aerosol case. Both act as remote effects via the widespread cold tropospheric temperature anomalies induced by the aerosol forcing. In the upped-ante mechanism in global warming| a warm troposphere increases the low-level moisture "ante" required for convection| creating spatially varying moisture anomalies that disfavor precipitation on those margins of convective zones where the mean flow imports air from nonconvective regions. In the aerosol case here| a cool troposphere preferentially decreases moisture in convective regions| creating positive precipitation anomalies at inflow margins. In the anomalous gross moist stability mechanism for the aerosol case| the decrease in moisture in convective regions acts to enhance the gross moist stability| so convection and the associated precipitation are reduced. The partitioning between the aerosol local and remote effects on regional tropical precipitation differs spatially. Over convective regions that have high aerosol concentration| such as the South American region| the aerosol local effect contributes more negative precipitation anomalies than the anomalous gross moist stability mechanism in the QTCM simulations. On the other hand| the remote effect is more important over convective regions with small aerosol concentrations| such as the western Pacific Maritime Continent. Remote effects of midlatitude aerosol forcing have a substantial contribution to tropical anomalies. 6773,2005,4,4,Local Ecologies and global science: Discourses and strategies of the international geosphere-biosphere programme,The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP)| a large international research programme| served to set the research agenda of a number of environmental sciences around the issue of global warming and global change. This paper examines the impact of the interdisciplinary cooperation within the IGBP on ecology and the ecologists' response. Ecology was an integral part of the IGBP from the beginning| yet it was sometimes in uneasy cohabitation with the other sciences involved. The issues of global warming and global change posed opportunities and challenges to ecology. They posed opportunities because an important cause emerged| with promises of exciting new (space) technologies and new funds for the environmental sciences. They posed challenges| because by aligning itself to sciences that study the earth system as a whole| ecology was invited implicitly to bracket its focus on the specificity of local ecosystems| that is| to give up ecology's traditional focus on field studies of plant and animal communities. My aim in this paper is to place the opportunities that global change research offered to ecology in the context of changes within the field that were already underway. Power relationships between disciplines did not give ecology an upper hand vis-a-vis the other earth sciences| but ecologists were able nevertheless to redefine subtly the notion of the global. 6861,2005,4,4,Long-term climate change and surface versus underground temperature measurements in Paris,Careful temperature measurements performed from 1783 to 1852 in underground galleries| 28 m below the Paris Observatory| are compared with current measurements performed in a limestone quarry| 20 m below ground surface| and with local and European surface temperature records. When averaged using a backward 11-year moving window| the surface temperature time series looks similar and exhibits the already well-known 1 degrees C temperature increase over the last century. In addition| since about 1987| a steeper increase of about 0.07 degrees C per year is noticed on all surface records. Underground temperatures| unaffected by surface fluctuations and averaging procedures| show a 0.9 degrees C increase and thus confirm the trend indicated by the surface records. The averaged time series of the temperature in Paris and of the Wolf number| an indicator of sunspot activity| were reasonably well correlated till 1987 but deviated significantly from each other after that date. The long-term connection between surface temperature and solar cycles is further supported by a temporal analysis of the frequency content at 11 years and 5.5 years. Visual correlations between temperature and sunspot numbers| unconvincing when using recent records| appear more striking with underground data from 1783 to 1852. This analysis suggests that solar activity played an important role in temperature changes till the last century| but that different processes| possibly related to human-induced changes in the climate system| have been taking place lately with increasing intensity| especially since 1987. Copyright (c) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. 7012,2005,2,4,Long-term climatic trend and body size variation in teal Anas crecca,A general warming of climate in the future may profoundly affect wildlife populations in terms of numbers| distribution and characteristics of the individuals| therefore leading to new challenges in terms of management and conservation. The effects of global warming can already be detected through the analysis of long-term databases| but insights into these processes can also be acquired by studying changes in wildlife populations during periods with clear trends in climatic changes. We analysed ringing data from more than 38|000 teal Anas crecca caught at the Station Biologique de la Tour du Valat in the Camargue| Southern France| between September 1954 and April 1971. Temperature in the Camargue clearly decreased over the ringing period. There was no correlation between average annual body mass and temperature in any age or sex class| nor a significant effect of temperature on the age ratio of the population. In adults| there were more males when average daily maximum winter temperature increased| while the opposite trend was found for juveniles. The clearest pattern we observed was a positive relationship between temperature and wing length of the individuals: in all sex and age classes| birds tended to get smaller as temperature decreased. It is unlikely that this pattern was related to harsh climate affecting teal feather growth. Rather| we hypothesise that climate affected the distribution of the individuals in Europe: as temperature got colder| small birds found it still more difficult to remain in northern areas and increasingly used the Camargue as a refuge. Reversing the observed pattern suggests that a global warming of climate in the future may have profound consequences for the distribution of wintering teal in Europe| as more and more birds will become able to remain in northern areas closer to their breeding grounds. 6815,2005,2,4,Long-term contrasted responses to climate of two Antarctic seabird species,We examined the population dynamics of two Antarctic seabirds and the influence of environmental variability over a 40-year period by coupling the estimation of demographic parameters| based on capture-recapture data| and modeling| using Leslie matrix population models. We demonstrated that the demographic parameters showing the greatest contribution to the variance of population growth rate were adult survival for both species. Breeding success showed the same contribution as adult survival for Emperor Penguins| whereas the proportion of breeders had the next stronger contribution for Snow Petrels. The sensitivity of population growth rate to adult survival was very high and the adult survival variability was weak for both species. Snow Petrel males survived better than females| whereas Emperor Penguin males had lower survival than females. These differences may be explained by the different investment in breeding. Emperor Penguin adult survival was negatively affected by air temperature during summer and winter for both sexes; male survival was negatively affected by sea ice concentration during summer| autumn| and winter. On the other hand| there was no effect of environmental covariates on Snow Petrel adult survival. The Emperor Penguin population has declined by 50% because of a decrease in adult survival related to a warming event during a regime shift in the late 1970s| whereas Snow Petrels showed their lowest numbers in 1976| but were able to skip reproduction. Indeed| the retrospective analysis of projection population matrix entries indicated that breeding abstention played a critical role in the population dynamics of Snow Petrels but not Emperor Penguins. Snow Petrels did not breed either when air temperature decreased during spring (probably reducing nest attendance and laying) or when sea ice decreased during autumn (reducing food availability). Emperor Penguin and Snow Petrel breeding population sizes were positively influenced by sea ice through its effect on adult survival for Emperor Penguins and on the proportion of breeders for Snow Petrels. Therefore| we hypothesize that the population sizes of the two species could be negatively affected by reduced sea ice in the context of global warming. 6962,2005,3,3,Low-temperature reforming of ethanol over copper-plated Raney nickel: A new route to sustainable hydrogen for transportation,Raney nickel can be plated with a high loading of copper (28%) to produce a novel copper-nickel catalyst| which retains a Raney-type structure. A simple two-step aqueous procedure was used. The catalyst exhibits high activity for low-temperature (250-300 degrees C) reforming of ethanol to methane| carbon monoxide| and hydrogen. Stable activity for over 400 h was achieved with no detectable methanation. The catalyst is significantly less active for methanol reforming and has low water-gas shift activity. The kinetics fit a two-step model in which ethanol is dehydrogenated to acetaldehyde in a first-order reaction with an activation energy of 149 KJ/mol followed by the decarbonylation of acetaldehyde| which is also first-order. The low-temperature ethanol reforming pathway has not previously been considered as a route to hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles because it leads to formation of only 2 mol of hydrogen/mol of ethanol versus 6 mol of hydrogen for traditional| high-temperature reforming. We suggest that capturing the energy value of the methane produced by low-temperature reforming in an internal combustion engine| combined with use of the waste heat from the engine to heat the reformer| will close the efficiency gap between the two pathways. Vehicles powered in this way will be less expensive since a much smaller fuel cell unit is required and will benefit from the stability and low cost of low-temperature ethanol reforming. Ethanol is a sustainable fuel| derived from biomass| which will not contribute to global warming. The low-temperature reforming pathway for ethanol may therefore represent a technically and economically attractive pathway to ethanol-fueled vehicles. 6967,2005,4,4,Main determinants of forest soil respiration along an elevation/temperature gradient in the Italian Alps,The main determinants of soil respiration were investigated in 11 forest types distributed along an altitudinal and thermal gradient in the southern Italian Alps (altitudinal range 1520 m| range in mean annual temperature 7.8 degrees C). Soil respiration| soil carbon content and principal stand characteristics were measured with standardized methods. Soil CO2 fluxes were measured at each site every 15-20 days with a closed dynamic system (LI-COR 6400) using soil collars from spring 2000 to spring 2002. At the same time| soil temperature at a depth of 10 cm and soil water content (m(3) m(-3)) were measured at each collar. Soil samples were collected to a depth of 30 cm and stones| root content and bulk density were determined in order to obtain reliable estimates of carbon content per unit area (kg C m(-2)). Soil respiration and temperature data were fitted with a simple logistic model separately for each site| so that base respiration rates and mean annual soil respiration were estimated. Then the same regression model was applied to all sites simultaneously| with each model parameter being expressed as a linear function of site variables. The general model explained about 86% of the intersite variability of soil respiration. In particular| soil mean annual temperature explained the most of the variance of the model (0.41)| followed by soil temperature interquartlile range (0.24)| soil carbon content (0.16) and soil water content (0.05). 1897,2005,2,4,Mapping environments at risk under different global climate change scenarios,All global circulation models based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios project profound changes| but there is no consensus on how to map their environmental consequences. Our multivariate representation of environmental space combines stable topographic and edaphic attributes with dynamic climatic attributes. We divide that environmental space into 500 unique domains and map their current locations and their projected locations in 2100 under contrasting emissions scenarios. The environmental domains found across half the study area today disappear under the higher emissions scenario| but persist somewhere in it under the lower emissions scenario. Locations affected least and those affected most under each scenario are mapped. This provides an explicit framework for designing conservation networks to include both areas at least risk (potential refugia) and areas at greatest risk| where novel communities may form and where sentinel ecosystems can be monitored for signs of stress. 6845,2005,4,4,Marine boundary layer clouds at the heart of tropical cloud feedback uncertainties in climate models,The radiative response of tropical clouds to global warming exhibits a large spread among climate models| and this constitutes a major source of uncertainty for climate sensitivity estimates. To better interpret the origin of that uncertainty| we analyze the sensitivity of the tropical cloud radiative forcing to a change in sea surface temperature that is simulated by 15 coupled models simulating climate change and current interannual variability. We show that it is in regimes of large-scale subsidence that the model results (1) differ the most in climate change and (2) disagree the most with observations in the current climate (most models underestimate the interannual sensitivity of clouds albedo to a change in temperature). This suggests that the simulation of the sensitivity of marine boundary layer clouds to changing environmental conditions constitutes| currently| the main source of uncertainty in tropical cloud feedbacks simulated by general circulation models. 1773,2005,2,4,Marine research in the Latitudinal Gradient Project along Victoria Land| Antarctica,This paper describes the conceptual framework of the Latitudinal Gradient Project that is being implemented by the New Zealand| Italian and United States Antarctic programmes along Victoria Land| Antarctica| from 72 degrees S to 86 degrees S. The purpose of this interdisciplinary research project is to assess the dynamics and coupling of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in relation to global climate variability. Preliminary data about the research cruises from the R/V "Italica" and R/V "Tangaroa" along the Victoria Land Coast in 2004 are presented. As a global climate barometer| this research along Victoria Land provides a unique framework for assessing latitudinal shifts in 'sentinel' environmental transition zones| where climate changes have an amplified impact on the phases of water. 1814,2005,2,4,Marmots on Great Basin mountaintops: Using genetics to test a biogeographic paradigm,Boreal mammals in the Great Basin have long been viewed as island-bound Pleistocene relicts because they occupy island-like patches of montane habitat separated by desert lowlands that presumably are impermeable to dispersal. Recent work| however| raised the possibility that dispersal among mountain ranges is an important process in the biogeography of boreal mammals in the Great Basin. We test this proposition using genetic variation in a representative species| the yellow-bellied marmot (Marinota flaviventris). A total of 332 marmots was sampled from 10 ranges and genotyped at six microsatellite loci. If the intervening desert lowlands are impermeable barriers to dispersal| then there should be no relationship between genetic distance and geographic distance among mountaintop populations| and genetic diversity should be diminished because gene flow would not be available to replace alleles lost over thousands of generations of isolation. Our results did not support these predictions. There was a strong correlation between genetic and geographic distance| demonstrating an isolation-by-distance pattern| and genetic diversity was high. Our results suggest that marmot populations in the Great Basin may be linked by dispersal| providing a mechanism to replenish genetic variation lost by drift. However| global climate change over the next several decades could make the desert lowlands more difficult to traverse| eventually transforming the boreal faunas of Great Basin mountaintops into the isolated relicts they were originally portrayed to be. 7210,2005,2,4,Mean versus extreme climate in the Mediterranean region and its sensitivity to future global warming conditions,The Mediterranean region (MTR) has been supposed to be very sensitive to changes in land surface and atmospheric greenhouse-gas (GHG) concentrations. Particularly| an intensification of climate extremes may be associated with severe socio-economic implications. Here| we present an analysis of climate mean and extreme conditions in this subtropical area based on regional climate model experiments| simulating the present-day and possible future climate. The analysis of extreme values (EVs) is based on the assumption that the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface temperature are well fitted by the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Return values of extreme daily events are determined using the method of L-moments. Particular emphasis is laid on the evaluation of the return values with respect to the uncertainty range of the estimate as derived from a Monte Carlo sampling approach. During the most recent 25 years the MTR has become dryer in spring but more humid especially in the western part in autumn and winter. At the same time| the whole region has been subject to a substantial warming. The strongest rainfall extremes are simulated in autumn over the Mediterranean Sea around Italy. Temperature extremes are most pronounced over the land masses| especially over northern Africa. Given the large uncertainty of the EV estimate| only 1-year return values are further analysed. During recent decades| statistically significant changes in extremes are only found for temperature. Future climate conditions may come along with a decrease in mean and extreme precipitation during the cold season| whereas an intensification of the hydrological cycle is predicted in summer and autumn. Temperature is predominantly affected over the Iberian Peninsula and the eastern part of the MTR. In many grid boxes| the signals are blurred out due to the large amount of uncertainty in the EV estimate. Thus| a careful analysis is required when making inferences about the future behaviour of climate extremes. 7027,2005,3,3,Measurement of net global warming potential in three agroecosystems,When appraising the impact of food and fiber production systems on the composition of the Earth's atmosphere and the 'greenhouse' effect| the entire suite of biogenic greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide (CO2)| methane (CH4)| and nitrous oxide (N2O) - needs to be considered. Storage of atmospheric CO2 into stable organic carbon pools in the soil can sequester CO2 while common crop production practices can produce CO2| generate N2O| and decrease the soil sink for atmospheric CH4. The overall balance between the net exchange of these gases constitutes the net global warming potential (GWP) of a crop production system. Trace gas flux and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage data from long-term studies| a rainfed site in Michigan that contrasts conventional tillage (CT) and no-till (NT) cropping| a rainfed site in northeastern Colorado that compares cropping systems in NT| and an irrigated site in Colorado that compares tillage and crop rotations| are used to estimate net GWP from crop production systems. Nitrous oxide emissions comprised 40-44% of the GWP from both rain-fed sites and contributed 16-33% of GWP in the irrigated system. The energy used for irrigation was the dominant GWP source in the irrigated system. Whether a system is a sink or source of CO2| i.e. net GWP| was controlled by the rate of SOC storage in all sites. SOC accumulation in the surface 7.5 cm of both rainfed continuous cropping systems was approximately 1100 kg CO2 equivalents ha(-1) y(-1). Carbon accrual rates were about three times higher in the irrigated system. The rainfed systems had been in NT for > 10 years while the irrigated system had been converted to NT 3 years before the start of this study. It remains to be seen if the C accrual rates decline with time in the irrigated system or if N2O emission rates decline or increase with time after conversion to NT. 6788,2005,2,4,Mechanisms affecting the overturning response in global warming simulations,Climate models used to produce global warming scenarios exhibit widely diverging responses of the thermohaline circulation (THC). To investigate the mechanisms responsible for this variability| a regional Atlantic Ocean model driven with forcing diagnosed from two coupled greenhouse gas simulations has been employed. One of the coupled models (MPI) shows an almost constant THC| the other (GFDL) shows a declining THC in the twenty-first century. The THC evolution in the regional model corresponds rather closely to that of the respective coupled simulation| that is| it remains constant when driven with the forcing from the MPI model| and declines when driven with the GFDL forcing. These findings indicate that a detailed representation of ocean processes in the region covered by the Atlantic model may not be critical for the simulation of the overall THC changes in a global warming scenario| and specifically that the coupled model's rather coarse representation of water mass formation processes in the subpolar North Atlantic is unlikely to be the primary cause for the large differences in the THC evolution. Sensitivity experiments have confirmed that a main parameter governing the THC response to global warming is the density of the intermediate waters in the Greenland - Iceland - Norwegian Seas| which in turn influences the density of the North Atlantic Deep Water| whereas changes in the air - sea heat and freshwater fluxes over the subpolar North Atlantic are only of moderate importance| and mainly influence the interannual-decadal variability of THC. Finally| as a consequence of changing surface fluxes| the Labrador Sea convection ceases by about 2030 under both forcings (i. e.| even in a situation where the overall THC is stable) indicating that the eventual breakdown of the convection is likely but need not coincide with substantial THC changes. 6816,2005,3,4,Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice field and related microorganism in black soil| northeastern China,Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from rice field in black soil were measured in situ by using static chamber techniques during crop growth season in 2001. The experiment fields were divided into three plots for three different treatments| one with continuous flooded and applying urea (CU)| one with continuous flooded and applying slow-releasing urea (CS)| and one with intermittent irrigation and applying urea (IU). Under the same fertilization application| compared with continuous flooded| intermittent irrigation can significantly reduce CH4 emission and increase N2O emission. But| integrated global warming potentials (GWPS) of CH4 and N2O emission were reduced greatly| while rice yield was not affected. So| the intermittent irrigation is an effective measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from paddy fields. The amount of CH4 emission during rice-growing season for the three treatments was all much lower than that from any other region in China. There was a trade-off relationship between CH4 and N2O emissions. We also measured the numbers of methanogens| methanotrophs| nitrifiers and denitrifers from rice field at various growth stages in 2001. Bacteria populations were estimated by the most probable number (MPN) method. Regression analyses show CH4 emissions were closely related to methanogens population for all the three treatments. There was a positive correlation between denitrifiers population level and N2O emission in the treatment of IU. 6987,2005,3,3,Methane emission in four rice varieties as related to sugars and organic acids of roots and root exudates and biomass yield,Rice (Oryza sativa L.) fields contribute to global methane (CH(4)) emission and warming. This study determined cultivar variations in CH(4) emission in relation to sugar and organic acid composition of the roots and root exudates and shoot and root biomass at the vegetative| reproductive and ripening stages of the rice plant. Thai cultivars Supanburi 1 (SP1)| Supanburi 60 (SP60)| Supanburi 90 (SP90) and Chainat 1 (CN1) were used. CH(4) flux rates were comparably higher in CN1 and SP1 than in SP60 and SP90. Glucose and acetic acid were the predominant sugar and organic acid| respectively. Sugar and organic acid contents of root exudate had no direct relationship with CH(4) fluxes regardless of growth stage. Total sugars of root tissues did not similarly compare with CH(4) flux rates. However| at the ripening stage| root glucose content was higher in CN1 while root fructose and acetic acid contents were higher in SP1. Shoot and root weights at the different growth stages were also consistently higher in SP1 and CN1 (high-CH(4) emitters) than in SP60 and SP90 (low-CH(4) emitters). The results demonstrate cultivar-dependent rates of CH(4) production due to some compositional differences and provide fundamental basis for cultivar selection as a mitigation strategy to reduce CH4 emission from ricefields. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6824,2005,5,4,Methane-driven late Pleistocene delta C-13 minima and overflow reversals in the southwestern Greenland Sea,A core transect across the southwestern Greenland Sea reveals coeval events of extremely negative planktic and benthic delta(13)C excursions between 40 and 87 ka. The most pronounced event| event 1| began at peak Dansgaard-Oeschger stadial 22 (85 ka) with a duration of 18 k.y. During this episode| incursions of Atlantic Intermediate Water caused a bottom-water warming of up to 8 degrees C. The amplitude| timing| and geographic pattern of the delta(13)C events suggest that this bottom-water warming triggered clathrate instability along the East Greenland slope and a methane-induced depletion of delta(13)C(DIC) (DIC-dissolved inorganic carbon). Since delta(13)C event 1 matches a major peak in atmospheric CH4 concentration| this clathrate destabilization may have contributed to the rise in atmospheric CH4 and thus to climate warming over marine isotope stage 5.1. 6954,2005,5,1,Mid-late Holocene monsoon climate retrieved from seasonal Sr/Ca and delta(18)O records of Porites lutea corals at Leizhou Peninsula| northern coast of South China Sea,South China Sea (SCS) is a major moisture source region| providing summer monsoon rainfall throughout Mainland China| which accounts for more than 80% total precipitation in the region. We report seasonal to monthly resolution Sr/Ca and delta(18)O data for five Holocene and one modem Porites corals| each covering a growth history of 9-13 years. The results reveal a general decreasing trend in sea surface temperature (SST) in the SCS from similar to 6800 to 1500 years ago| despite shorter climatic cycles. Compared with the mean Sr/Ca-SST in the 1990s (24.8 degrees C)| 10-year mean Sr/Ca-SSTs were 0.9-0.5 degrees C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 thousand years before present (ky BP)| dropped to the present level by similar to 2.5 ky BP| and reached a low of 22.6 degrees C (2.2 degrees C lower) by similar to 1.5 ky BP. The summer Sr/Ca-SST maxima| which are more reliable due to faster summer-time growth rates and higher sampling resolution| follow the same trend| i.e. being 1-2 degrees C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 ky BP| dropping to the present level by -2.5 ky BP| and reaching a low of 28.7 degrees C (0.7 degrees C lower) by similar to 1.5 ky BP. Such a decline in SST is accompanied by a similar decrease in the amount of monsoon moisture transported out of South China Sea| resulting in a general decrease in the seawater delta(18)O values| reflected by offsets of mean 6 180 relative to that in the 1990s. This observation is consistent with general weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon since early Holocene| in response to a continuous decline in solar radiation| which was also found in pollen| lake-level and loess/paleosol records throughout Mainland China. The climatic conditions similar to 2.5 and similar to 1.5 ky ago were also recorded in Chinese history. In contrast with the general cooling trend of the monsoon climate in East Asia| SST increased dramatically in recent time| with that in the 1990s being 2.2 degrees C warmer than that similar to 1.5 ky ago. This clearly indicates that the increase in the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases played a dominant role in recent global warming| which reversed the natural climatic trend in East Asian monsoon regime. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7164,2005,3,3,Mitigating nitrous oxide and methane emissions from soil in rice-wheat system of the Indo-Gangetic plain with nitrification and urease inhibitors,Mitigation of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from soil is important to reduce the global warming. Efficacy of five nitrification inhibitors| i.e. neem (Azadirachta melia) cake| thiosulphate| coated calcium carbide| neem oil coated urea and dicyandiamide (DCD) and one urease inhibitor| hydroquinone| in mitigating N2O and CH4 emissions from fertilized soil was tested in rice-wheat system in the Indo-Gangetic plains. The closed chamber technique was used for the collection of gas samples| which were analyzed using gas chromatography. Reduction in N2O emission on the application of nitrification/urease inhibitors along with urea ranged from 5% with hydroquinone to 31% with thiosulphate in rice and 7% with hydroquinone to 29% with DCD in wheat crop. The inhibitors also influenced the emission of CH4. While application of neem coated urea| coated calcium carbide| neem oil and DCD reduced the emission of CH4; hydroquinone and thiosulphate increased the emission when compared to urea alone. However| the global warming potential was lower with the inhibitors (except hydroquinone) as compared to urea alone| suggesting that these substances could be used for mitigating greenhouse gas emission from the rice-wheat systems. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6770,2005,3,3,Mitigating temperature increases in high lot density sub-tropical residential developments,Residential developments built with houses that use passive design features can have significantly reduced energy requirements for thermal comfort. In the context of global warming| this can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The current trend towards higher lot density in residential developments and the resulting increase in thermal mass increases the associated heat island effect. Designers of future residential developments face the dual challenges of heat island impacts and any future global warming. Resource efficient house designs combined with approaches that mitigate the outdoor heat load must be considered and addressed from the design of the initial subdivision layout. Some land sub-division and house design initiatives are proposed for sub-tropical climatic conditions as prevailing in south-east Queensland| Australia. Computer simulations that account for heat island and global warming effects are used to estimate the indoor thermal performance of display houses constructed by a large scale property developer for current climate conditions and scenarios that may occur in the future. The use of north-south orientation of narrow building lots combined with high albedo house surfaces and the increased strategic use of shade trees for reducing the heat island effect of high density residential developments are presented. The cooling requirements of houses with high-energy rating (5 star or more) are found to be significantly superior to those with low rating (3.5 star) in scenarios of global warming. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6994,2005,3,3,Mitigation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from drained irrigated rice fields,One of the important cultural practices that affect methane and nitrous oxide emissions from tropical rice plantations is the water drainage system. While drainage can reduce methane emissions| it can also increase nitrous oxide emissions| as well as reduce yields. In this experiment| four different water drainage systems were compared in a rice field in central Thailand including: (1) continuous flooding| (2) mid-season drainage| (3) multiple drainage and (4) a local method (drainage was done according to local cultural practice) in order to find a system of drainage that would optimize yields while simultaneously limiting methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Methane and nitrous oxide emission were observed and compared with rice yield and physical changes of rice plants. It was found that drainage during the flowering period could reduce methane emission. Interestingly| nitrous oxide emission was related to number of drain days rather than the frequency of draining. Fewer drain days can help reduce nitrous oxide emission. The mid-season drainage and the multiple drainage| with 6.9% and 11.4% reduction in rice yield| respectively| had an average methane emission per crop 27% and 35% lower when compared to the local method. Draining with fewer drain days during the flowering period was recommended as a compromise between emissions and yield. The field drainage can be used as an option to reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice fields with acceptable yield reduction. Mid-season drainage during the rice flowering period| with a shortened drainage period (3 days)| is suggested as a compromise between the need to reduce global warming and current socio-economic realities. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7026,2005,3,4,Mitigation of N2O and CH4 emission from rice and wheat cropping systems using dicyandiamide and hydroquinone,Agriculture contributes considerably to the emission of greenhouse gases| such as N2O and CH4. Here we summarize results from previous pot experiments assessing the effectiveness of urease and nitrification inhibitors reducing both N2O and CH4 emissions from wheat and rice cropping systems fertilized with urea (U). For the wheat cropping system| using a cambisol| we observed that the application of U with hydroquinone (HQ| a urease inhibitor)| U with dicyandiamide (DCD| a nitrification inhibitor) and U with HQ plus DCD decreased the N2O emissions by 11.4| 22.3 and 25.1%| respectively. For the rice copping system| using a luvisol| we found that the application of U with HQ| U with DCD and U with HQ plus DCD decreased N2O emissions by 10.6| 47.0 and 62.3%| respectively| and CH4 emissions by 30.1| 53.1 and 58.3%| respectively. In terms of total global warming potential (GWP) a reduction of 61.2% could be realized via the combined addition of HQ and DCD. The addition of wheat straw reduced the activity of HQ and DCD in the rice cropping experiments. In terms of total GWP only a reduction of 30.7% could be achieved. In general| both in upland and flooded conditions| the application of HQ and DCD alone was less effective than HQ in combination with DCD| but not significantly for U plus DCD treatment. Our observations may be further constrained| however| by practical| economic or social problems and should therefore be tested at the scale of a region (e.g. a watershed) and related to an integrated abatement of agricultural N losses. 1915,2005,4,4,Model of the net primary productivity of terrestrial ecosystems in china and its response to climate change,The present study proposed to distinguish agricultural vegetation from natural vegetation when modelling net primary productivity (NPP)| and developed a NPP model specifically for agricultural vegetation in China. The new model and the ZHOU & ZHANG model 1996 were then used to simulate NPP for agricultural land and natural ecosystems in China| respectively. The results showed that the overall accuracy improved when simulating the present NPP. As a general trend| NPP declined from southeast to northwest| with the lowest NPP in the Xinjiang Autonomous region. Except in extremely and or extremely humid areas| agricultural NPP was usually lower than natural NPP| especially in northeastern China and the North China plain. The two models were also used to simulate NPP in China under three climatic change scenarios. The results demonstrated that if air temperature increased by 2 degrees C and rainfall decreased by 20 %| both low NPP and high NPP area would decrease| resulting in an increase of medium NPP area. The other two scenarios| characterized by a temperature increase of 2 degrees C| combined with precipitation increase of 20 % and with precipitation unchanged| showed a decrease in low NPP area and a increase in medium and high NPP area| however| the former resulted in a greater medium NPP increase. In conclusion| our approach supplied better predictions than those based on only a natural NPP model. 6930,2005,2,4,Modeling and evaluating the effect of forest fire control on the CO2 cycle in Siberia,The forests of Siberia play an important role in absorbing carbon dioxide. Resent increases in forest fires| due to both human negligence and global warming| appear to cause significant damage to the forests. In the present research| basic models were established to evaluate changes in land area and carbon flux by forest fires and by disturbances of permafrost. Basic data necessary for the analysis are also summarized and presented. The characteristic of the model is a solution to the problem with probabilities in statistic space| rather than detailed simulation. The results of the simulation shows the significance of forest fires on the net carbon flux| which maintains the present level with a sensitive balance between large positive and negative fluxes. It was also shown that forest areas keep decreasing over a thousand-year time span even after a fire rate becomes constant. This implies that changes of land features are quite slow and that there may be irreparable situations at the time when changes are actually recognized. The effect of fire control and planting of the areas exposed to fires is also evaluated. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6950,2005,2,3,Modeling global warming scenarios in greenback cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki stomias) streams: Implications for species recovery,Changes in global climate may exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors| accelerating the decline in distribution and abundance of rare species throughout the world. We examined the potential effects of a warming climate on the greenback cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki stomias)| a resident salmonid that inhabits headwater streams of the central Rocky Mountains. Greenbacks are outcompeted at lower elevations by normative species of trout and currently are restricted to upper-elevation habitats where barriers to upstream migration by nonnatives are or have been established. We used likelihood-based techniques and information theoretics to select models predicting stream temperature changes for 10 streams where greenback cutthroat trout have been translocated. These models showed high variability among responses by different streams| indicating the usefulness of a stream-specific approach. We used these models to project changes in stream temperatures based on 2 degrees C and 4 degrees C warming of average air temperatures. In these warming scenarios| spawning is predicted to begin from 2 to 3.3 weeks earlier than would be expected under baseline conditions. Of the 10 streams used in this assessment| 5 currently have less than a 50% chance of translocation success. Warming increased the probability of translocation success in these 5 streams by 11.2% and 21.8% in the 2 scenarios| respectively. Assuming barriers to upstream migration by normative competitors maintain their integrity| we conclude that an overall habitat improvement results because greenbacks have been restricted through competition with nonnatives to suboptimal habitats| which are generally too cold to be highly productive. 6746,2005,4,4,Modelling climate change: the role of unresolved processes,Our understanding of the climate system has been revolutionized recently| by the development of sophisticated computer models. The predictions of such models are used to formulate international protocols| intended to mitigate the severity of global warming and its impacts. Yet| these models are not perfect representations of reality| because they remove from explicit consideration many physical processes which are known to be key aspects of the climate system| but which are too small or fast to be modelled. The purpose of this paper is to give a personal perspective of the current state of knowledge regarding the problem of unresolved scales in climate models. A recent novel solution to the problem is discussed| in which it is proposed| somewhat counter-intuitively| that the performance of models may be improved by adding random noise to represent the unresolved processes. 7066,2005,2,3,Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing.drought risks,With global warming| evapotranspiration (ET) is likely to increase and| with more variable rainfall| droughts could occur more often. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of climate change on drought indicators and yield of winter wheat in England and Wales. We used the crop simulation model Sirius to assess the effect of changing climate on maximum soil moisture deficit (SMDmax) drought-related reduction of potential yield (YRdr) and wheat yields. Climate scenarios were based on the output from the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM2) and were constructed by using a stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG). Weather was generated for the baseline (1960-1990) and future (2020s and 2050s) periods at representative sites in the UK using two types of scenarios: (1) those incorporating only mean changes in climate variables and (2) those incorporating changes in means and variance. Probability distributions were derived from multiple simulations using representative weather| soil types and sowing dates. SMDmax is likely to increase in the future| especially on shallow soils| and the probability of YRdr exceeding 25% will increase by 10% until the 2050s. However| average wheat yields are likely to increase by 1.2 to 2 t/ha (15-23%) by the 2050s because of a CO2-related increase in radiation use efficiency (RUE). Grain yields are likely to be less variable but the probability of the annual coefficient of variation (CV) exceeding 15% remains the same. Changes in the variance of weather variables will have little effect on grain yields. Ignoring genetic improvement in varieties| yields are predicted to increase more until the 2020s than in the following 30 years. A sensitivity analysis for crop growth parameters suggests that further yield gains (1 t/ha) are possible with new varieties that increase the grain filling period. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6991,2005,2,4,Molecular analysis of Continuous Plankton Recorder samples| an examination of echinoderm larvae in the North Sea,Analysis of the biological time series of plankton samples collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) in the North Atlantic and North Sea has shown a regime shift in the plankton in this region. Both the distributions of planktonic organisms and their timing of occurrence in the seasonal cycle have changed and these changes appear to reflect global warming. In the North Sea the planktonic larvae of echinoderms have shown a recent dramatic increase in both relative and absolute abundance and their seasonal peak of occurrence has advanced by 47 clays. The identity of the echinoderm larvae involved in this change has| however| remained equivocal. The small size of many organisms like echinoderm larvae combined with incomplete taxonomic keys hinders their visual identification and their fragility often means that useful morphological features are damaged during sampling by the CPR. Here| using new molecular methods applied to CPR samples| we show that planktonic larvae of the benthic Echinocardium cordatum| dominate the. North Sea plankton. We argue that since this species benefits from mild winters and warmer waters their numerical increase in the plankton is consistent with recent climatic changes that appear to be affecting the wider ecology| of this region. 7021,2005,4,4,Monitoring forest dynamics using satellite imagery - a case study in the natural reserve of Changbai Mountain in China,This study intended (1) to develop a quantitative method to describe vegetation succession or change by remote sensing approach| and (2) to test the capability in clarifying the stability or instability of natural forests in landscape scales. With special attention on the coniferous forest| the attempt was conducted on the natural reserve of Changbai mountain in northeast China by using multi-temporal TM images. Two simple parameters were derived to represent succession rate or change extent. One was the mean change of radiance| and another was the number of pixels with changed reflection property. As conclusion| TM imagery is effective for detecting vegetation changes. The results also demonstrated that the so called climax is not a pure stand| which is generally assumed to be exclusively dominated by climax species| but rather a complex of shifting mosaic. The pioneer patches are permanent units in the forest community. This method is considered applicable for assessing the developing status or behavior of plant communities in large scales| like a life zone| under disturbance of global warming| especially for long-time span. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1912,2005,4,4,Monitoring the oceanic flow between Africa and Antarctica: Report of the first GoodHope cruise,THE SOUTHERN OCEAN PLAYS A MAJOR role in the global oceanic circulation| as a component of the Meridional Overturning Circulation| and it is postulated that it has a great influence on present-day climate. However| our understanding of its complex three-dimensional dynamics and of the impact of its variability on the climate system is rudimentary. The newly constituted| international GoodHope research venture aims to address this knowledge gap by establishing a programme of regular observations across the Southern Ocean between the African and Antarctic continents. The objectives of this programme are fivefold: (1) to improve understanding of Indo-Atlantic inter-ocean exchanges and their impact on the global thermohaline circulation and thus on global climate change; (2) to understand in more detail the influence these exchanges have on the climate variability of the southern African subcontinent; (3) to monitor the variability of the main Southern Ocean frontal systems associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current; (4) to study air-sea exchanges and their role on the global heat budget| with particular emphasis on the intense exchanges occurring within the Agulhas Retroflection region south of South Africa| and (5) to examine the role of major frontal systems as areas of elevated biological activity and as biogeographical barriers to the distribution of plankton. We present here preliminary results on the physical and biological structure of the frontal systems using the first GoodHope transect that was completed during February-March 2004. 1893,2005,2,4,Morphogenesis of the branching reef coral Madracis mirabilis,Understanding external deciding factors in growth and morphology of reef corals is essential to elucidate the role of corals in marine ecosystems| and to explain their susceptibility to pollution and global climate change. Here| we extend on a previously presented model for simulating the growth and form of a branching coral and we compare the simulated morphologies to three-dimensional (313) images of the coral species Madracis mirabilis. Simulation experiments and isotope analyses of M. mirabilis skeletons indicate that external gradients of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) determine the morphogenesis of branching| phototrophic corals. In the simulations we use a first principle model of accretive growth based on local interactions between the polyps. The only species-specific information in the model is the average size of a polyp. From flow tank and simulation studies it is known that a relatively large stagnant and diffusion dominated region develops within a branching colony. We have used this information by assuming in our model that growth is entirely driven by a difftision-limited process| where DIC supply represents the limiting factor. With such model constraints it is possible to generate morphologies that are virtually indistinguishable from the 3D images of the actual colonies. 1865,2005,4,3,Multi-scale observation and cross-scale mechanistic modeling on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle,To predict global climate change and to implement the Kyoto Protocol for stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations require quantifying spatio-temporal variations in the terrestrial carbon sink accurately. During the past decade multi-scale ecological experiment and observation networks have been established using various new technologies (e.g. controlled environmental facilities| eddy covariance techniques and quantitative remote sensing)| and have obtained a large amount of data about terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. However| uncertainties in the magnitude and spatio-temporal variations of the terrestrial carbon sink and in understanding the underlying mechanisms have not been reduced significantly. One of the major reasons is that the observations and experiments were conducted at individual scales independently| but it is the interactions of factors and processes at different scales that determine the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon sink. Since experiments and observations are always conducted at specific scales| to understand cross-scale interactions requires mechanistic analysis that is best to be achieved by mechanistic modeling. However| mechanistic ecosystem models are mainly based on data from single-scale experiments and observations and hence have no capacity to simulate mechanistic cross-scale interconnection and interactions of ecosystem processes. New-generation mechanistic ecosystem models based on new ecological theoretical framework are needed to quantify the mechanisms from micro-level fast eco-physiological responses to macro-level slow acclimation in the pattern and structure in disturbed ecosystems. Multi-scale data-model fusion is a recently emerging approach to assimilate multi-scale observational data into mechanistic| dynamic modeling| in which the structure and parameters of mechanistic models for simulating cross-scale interactions are optimized using multi-scale observational data. The models are validated and evaluated at different spatial and temporal scales and real-time observational data are assimilated continuously into dynamic modeling for predicting and forecasting ecosystem changes realistically. In summary| a breakthrough in terrestrial carbon sink research requires using approaches of multi-scale observations and cross-scale modeling to understand and quantify interconnections and interactions among ecosystem processes at different scales and their controls over ecosystem carbon cycle. 7097,2005,3,3,Natural geochemical analogues for carbon dioxide storage in deep geological porous reservoirs| a United Kingdom perspective,Elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are implicated in global warming. Mitigation of this requires capture of CO| from fossil fuel power sources and storage in subsurface aquifers or depleted hydrocarbon fields. Demonstration projects and financial analysis suggest that this is technologically feasible. CO2 must retained below ground for 10(4) y into the future to enable the surface carbon cycle to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels. To provide robust predictions of the performance of disposal sites at the required timescale| one approach is to study natural CO2 accumulations| which give insight into rock-CO2-brine interactions over timescales of 10(3)-5.10(6) y. In contrast to geochemical modelling predictions| natural CO2 fields in the North Sea (Brae| Miller| Magnus| Sleipner)| at 4.0 km and deeper| do not show the mineral products which are predicted to form. Calcite and feldspar still comprise 5-20% of the rock| and dawsonite is absent. SE Australian and Arizona reservoir sandstones also do not fit to geochemical predictions. A state of disequilibrium possibly exists| so that existing geochemical modelling is not capable of accurately predicting kinetic-controlled and surface-chemistry controlled mineral dissolution or precipitation in natural subsurface sandstones on the required timescales. Improved calibration of models is required. Geochemical evidence from laboratory experiments (months to years duration)| or from enhanced oil recovery (30 y duration) are again too short in timescale. To help to bridge the 10(4) y gap| it may be useful to examine natural analogues (10(3)-10(6) y)| which span the timescale required for durable disposal. The Colorado Plateau is a natural CO2 system| analogous to an hydrocarbon system| where 100 Gm(3) CO.| fields occur| sourced from 0-5 Ma volcanics. Deep erosion has exposed the sediments which formed CO2 source| CO2 carrier| CO2 reservoir| CO2 trap| CO2 seal. Some very large CO2 traps are now exhumed| and some are currently leaking to form cool travertine springs at the surface. Natural examples at Salt Wash Green River| and at Moab Fault are briefly described. These show extensive bleaching of haematite which may be locally redeposited| carbonate cementation delta(13)C-7 parts per thousand around point sources| and silica precipitation| which may seal leak-off on buried anticline crests. Accurate geochemical modelling of the long-term performance of CO2 storage sites| requires improved understanding of CO2 reaction paths and reaction rates with aquifer reservoirs and with overlying seals. Robust prediction of disposal site performance is not possible without this. 6883,2005,4,2,Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 20th century,Based on the reanalysis data throughout 1948-2002 as derived from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research| it is revealed that East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity weakens on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1960s| and twice interdecadal jumps are recorded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 20th century| respectively occurring in the mid-1960s and mid- to late 1970s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models' outputs under the SIZES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario| provided by the IPCC Data Distribution Center and the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research| are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM weakening is not closely related to synchronizing anthropogenic global warming| and| therefore| it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 21st century| the EASM intensity is likely increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 20th century. 7125,2005,5,4,New model of reef-island evolution: Maldives| Indian Ocean,A new model of reef-island evolution| based on detailed morphostratigraphic analysis and radiometric dating of three islands in South Maalhosmadulu Atoll| Maldives| is presented. Islands initially formed on a foundation of lagoonal sediments between 5500 and 4500 yr B.P. when the reef surface was as much as 2.5 m below modern sea level. Islands accumulated rapidly during the following 1500 yr| effectively reaching their current dimensions by 4000 yr B.P. Since then the high circum-island peripheral ridge has been subject to seasonal and longer-term shoreline changes| while the outer reef has grown upward| reducing the energy window and confining the islands. This new model has far-reaching implications for island stability during a period of global warming and raised sea level| which will partially reactivate the energy window| although it is not expected to inhibit upward reef growth or compromise island stability. 6896,2005,3,4,Nitrogen availability and N2O fluxes frompasture soil after herbicide application,NITROGEN AVAILABILITY AND N2O FLUXES FROM PASTURE SOIL AFTER HERBICIDE APPLICATION Nitrous Oxide (N2O) plays an important role in the greenhouse effect| owing to its high global warming potential and a long half-life in the atmosphere. A large portion of the natural N2O flux is oceanic and the remaining results mainly from the contribution of microbiological processes (nitrification and denitrification) that occur in tropical soils. The availability of nitrogen (N) for metabolic processes by microorganisms may be an important factor controlling N2O in such soils. The goal of this study was to improve the understanding of mechanisms controlling N2O fluxes from soils under pasture in the Amazon. We investigated the effects of N and carbon (C) availability| and soil moisture on N2O emission from| two different pastures (with or without treatments for recovery of productivity). The study was developed under laboratory conditions by incubating soil samples from the following pastures: (a) Control - Soil from a traditionally-managed pasture established in 1983 consisting of a mixture of Brachiaria brizantha and Panicum maximum| besides a type of weed; and (b) Herbicide treated - total desiccation of pasture established in 1983 in preparation for cultivation of no-till rice and posterior grass replanting. It is important to emphasize that soil samples (0-5 cm depth) were collected on the third day after herbicide application. To compare and understand N2O fluxes| we added nitrate| dextrose and water to the soil before incubation and used acetylene to block N2O oxidation to N-2| in order to estimate the N-2 emitted from the soil. The highest fluxes were observed when nitrate was added to the soil under high moisture conditions. Dextrose (C source) addition increased fluxes at more extent in the soil from the pasture that received herbicide application and also displayed higher N availability. With acetylene application it was possible to observe that a large portion of N lost in gaseous forms occurs as N-2. Thus| in the studied pasture the denitrification process appeared to be dominated by N2O soil fluxes and N was the main factor controlling these fluxes. 6892,2005,3,4,Nitrogen oxide and methane emissions under varying tillage and fertilizer management,Comprehensive assessment of the total greenhouse gas (GHG) budget of reduced tillage agricultural systems must consider emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CM)| each of which have higher global warming potentials than carbon dioxide (CO2). Tillage intensity may also impact nitric oxide (NO) emissions| which can have various environmental and agronomic impacts. In 2003 and 2004| we used chambers to measure N2O| CM| and NO fluxes from plots that had been managed under differing tillage intensity since 1991. The effect of tillage on non-CO2 GHG emissions varied| in both magnitude and direction| depending on fertilizer practices. Emissions of N2O following broadcast urea (BU) application were higher under no till (NT) and conservation tillage (CsT) compared to conventional tillage (CT). In contrast| following anhydrous ammonia (AA) injection| N2O emissions were higher under CT and CsT compared to NT. Emissions following surface urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) application did not vary with tillage. Total growing season non-CO2 GHG emissions were equivalent to CO2 emissions of 0.15 to 1-9 Mg CO2 ha(-1) yr(-1) or 0.04 to 0.53 Mg soil-C ha(-1) yr-1. Emissions of N2O from AA-amended plots were two to four times greater than UAN- and BU-amended plots. Total NO + N2O losses in the UAN treatment were approximately 50% lower than AA and BU. This study demonstrates that N20 emissions can represent a substantial component of the total GHG budget of reduced tillage systems| and that interactions between fertilizer and tillage practices can be important in controlling non-CO2 GHG emissions. 7095,2005,3,3,Nitrogen pools and fluxes in grassland soils sequestering carbon,Carbon sequestration in agricultural| forest| and grassland soils has been promoted as a means by which substantial amounts of CO(2) may be removed from the atmosphere| but few studies have evaluated the associated impacts on changes in soil N or net global warming potential (GWP). The purpose of this research was to ( 1) review the literature to examine how changes in grassland management that affect soil C also impact soil N| ( 2) assess the impact of different types of grassland management on changes in soil N and rates of change| and (3) evaluate changes in N(2)O fluxes from differently managed grassland ecosystems to assess net impacts on GWP. Soil C and N stocks either both increased or both decreased for most studies. Soil C and N sequestration were tightly linked| resulting in little change in C: N ratios with changes in management. Within grazing treatments N(2)O made a minor contribution to GWP (0.1-4%)| but increases in N(2)O fluxes offset significant portions of C sequestration gains due to fertilization (10-125%) and conversion (average = 27%). Results from this work demonstrate that even when improved management practices result in considerable rates of C and N sequestration| changes in N(2)O fluxes can offset a substantial portion of gains by C sequestration. Even for cases in which C sequestration rates are not entirely offset by increases in N(2)O fluxes| small increases in N(2)O fluxes can substantially reduce C sequestration benefits. Conversely| reduction of N(2)O fluxes in grassland soils brought about by changes in management represents an opportunity to reduce the contribution of grasslands to net greenhouse gas forcing. 6941,2005,3,3,Non-point pollution from crop production: Global| regional and national issues,China is now the world's largest producer and user of industrial fertilizers and manures. Consequently China plays a substantial role in global N cycle dynamics and in man's disruption of the nitrogen cycle though there are still significant uncertainties about the size and importance of emission and leaching rates. A major cause of China's global role is the overuse of nitrogen fertilizers| which is most serious with intensive vegetable production where application rates can be up to 50% greater than crop needs| but is also a problem with wheat| rice and maize. China's overuse of nitrogen fertiliser over the past 10-20 years has resulted in non-point source (NPS) pollution from crop production becoming a major cause of water pollution| and the situation is projected to get worse. In contrast| water pollution from point sources such as intensive livestock production and urban or industrial development is being brought more under control. The consequences for air pollution are equally serious. Emissions of nitrous oxide from fertilizers and manures may be so large that China could be responsible for 25-30% of global emissions of this damaging greenhouse gas and of the global warming resulting from it. The main national and local issues relate particularly to low fertilizer use efficiency and the losses of ammonia and NOx that lead to acid precipitation| and leaching and run-off losses that result in high nitrate levels in groundwater and eutrophication of rivers and lakes. The reasons why farmers overuse nitrogen fertilizer are complex and not fully understood. They involve agro-climate differences between provinces and counties| farming systems and farm income structures. Although there is a wide range of institutional and technological improvements that can greatly reduce this overuse rapid progress in reducing NPS is unlikely. 6821,2005,2,4,Nonlinear analysis for the cooling effect of Qinghai-Tibetan railway embankment with different structures in permafrost regions,The thermal convection of fluid inside ballast layer and ripped-rock layer| which are regarded as porous media in railway embankment| is the process of heat and mass transfer. In this paper| in order to research the influence of different embankment structures and geometries on the underlying permafrost thermal regime along Qinghai-Tibetan Railway| a numerical representation of the unsteady two-dimensional continuity| momentum (non-Darcy) and energy equations of thermal convection for incompressible fluid in porous media is used to analyze temperature characteristics of a traditional ballast embankment| a horizontal ripped-rock embankment and two U-shaped ripped-rock embankments for the 50 years. The calculated results indicate: (1) the traditional ballast embankment will cause the great degradation of the underlying permafrost under the assumption that the air temperature will warm up 2.6 degrees C in the 50 years; (2) the U-shaped ripped-rock embankment with 150 cm-thick ripped-rock layer and 160-cm-wide ripped-rock revetment can efficiently protect the underlying permafrost. However| 120-cm-thick horizontal ripped-rock layer has weak cooling effect. Therefore| the horizontal ripped-rock layer thickness is a very important factor to the effect of ripped-rock embankment. These analyses indicate that reasonable ripped-rock embankment structure and embankment geometry can provide an effective mechanism for preserving permafrost under trend of global warming and avoiding large deformation and embankment failure due to thaw settlement in high-temperature permafrost regions along Qinghai-Tibetan Railway. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7001,2005,5,3,North Atlantic warming during global cooling at the end of the Cretaceous,Differences in regional responses to climate fluctuations are well documented on short time scales (e.g.| El Nino-Southern Oscillation)| but with the exception of latitudinal temperature gradients| regional patterns are seldom considered in discussions of ancient greenhouse climates. Contrary to the expectation of global warming or global cooling implicit in most treatments of climate evolution over millions of years| this paper shows that the North Atlantic warmed by as much as 6 degrees C (1.5 parts per thousand decrease in delta(18)O values of planktic foraminifera) during the Maastrichtian global cooling interval. We suggest that warming was the result of the importation of heat from the South Atlantic. Decreasing North Atlantic delta(18)O values are also associated with increasing gradients in planktic delta(13)C values| suggesting increasing surface-water stratification and a correlated strengthening of the North Atlantic Polar Front. If correct| this conclusion predicts arctic cooling during the late Maastrichtian. Beyond implications for the Maastrichtian| these data demonstrate that climate does not behave as if there is a simple global thermostat| even on geologic time scales. 1906,2005,2,4,North Atlantic weather oscillation and human infectious diseases in the Czech Republic| 1951-2003,Longitudinal correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation large-scale weather system (NAO) and the annual incidence rate of 14 viral| bacterial and protozoan national notifiable human diseases in the Czech Republic was examined. In simple correlation| cases of salmonellosis| erysipelas| infectious mononucleosis and toxoplasmosis were positively correlated with the winter NAO index| while hepatitis A and shigellosis were negatively correlated| and the other diseases tested (rubella| mumps| chickenpox.| tick-borne encephalitis| Lyme borreliosis| leptospirosis| tularemia and scarlet fever) were uncorrelated with NAO. However| 8 of the 14 diseases also revealed a significant time trend| either increasing (infectious mononucleosis| salmonellosis| erysipelas| toxoplasmosis) or decreasing (hepatitis A| scarlet fever| leptospirosis| shigellosis) during the period. When the effect of NAO on incidence of the diseases was then controlled for calendar year using partial correlation analysis and detrended regression| only toxoplasmosis and infectious mononucleosis were found significantly positively correlated with the NAO when the index was lagged 1 or 2 years| and leptospirosis was correlated negatively with a lag of 2 years. Large-scale weather changes as described by NAO therefore do not seem to be a crucial factor in the fluctuation of annual incidence rate of the majority of tested infectious diseases in the Czech Republic| while other factors| especially social and public health circumstances| are obviously more important. 6836,2005,4,4,North Pacific cloud feedbacks inferred from synoptic-scale dynamic and thermodynamic relationships,Daily satellite cloud observations and reanalysis dynamical parameters are analyzed to determine how midtropospheric vertical velocity and advection over the sea surface temperature gradient control midlatitude North Pacific cloud properties. Optically thick clouds with high tops are generated by synoptic ascent| but two different cloud regimes occur under synoptic descent. When vertical motion is downward during summer| extensive stratocumulus cloudiness is associated with near-surface northerly wind| while frequent cloudless pixels occur with southerly wind. Examination of ship-reported cloud types indicates that midlatitude stratocumulus breaks up as the boundary layer decouples when it is advected equatorward over warmer water. Cumulus is prevalent under conditions of synoptic descent and cold advection during winter. Poleward advection of subtropical air over colder water causes stratification of the near-surface layer that inhibits upward mixing of moisture and suppresses cloudiness until a fog eventually forms. Averaging of cloud and radiation data into intervals of 500-hPa vertical velocity and advection over the SST gradient enables the cloud response to changes in temperature and the stratification of the lower troposphere to be investigated independent of the dynamics. Vertically uniform warming results in decreased cloud amount and optical thickness over a large range of dynamical conditions. Further calculations indicate that a decrease in the variance of vertical velocity would lead to a small decrease in mean cloud optical thickness and cloud-top height. These results suggest that reflection of solar radiation back to space by midlatitude oceanic clouds will decrease as a direct response to global warming| thus producing an overall positive feedback on the climate system. An additional decrease in solar reflection would occur were the storm track also to weaken| whereas an intensification of the storm track would partially cancel the cloud response to warming. 6863,2005,4,4,Northern hemispheric trends of pressure indices and atmospheric circulation patterns in observations| reconstructions| and coupled GCM simulations,The decadal trend behavior of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation is investigated utilizing long-term simulations with different state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for present-day climate conditions (1990)| reconstructions of the past 500 yr| and observations. The multimodel simulations show that strong positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) trends are connected with the underlying sea surface temperature (SST) and exhibit an SST tripole trend pattern and a northward shift of the storm-track tail. Strong negative winter trends of the Aleutian low are associated with SST changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region and a westward shift of the storm track in the North Pacific. The observed simultaneous appearance of strong positive NAO and negative Aleutian low trends is very unlikely to occur by chance in the unforced simulations and reconstructions. The positive winter NAO trend of the last 50 yr is not statistically different from the level of internal atmosphere-ocean variability. The unforced simulations also show a strong link between positive SST trends in the ENSO region and negative Aleutian low trends. With much larger observed SST trends in the ENSO region| this suggests that the observed negative Aleutian low trend is possibly influenced by external forcing| for example| global warming| volcanism| and/or solar activity change. 6982,2005,4,4,Objective analyses of sea-surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for the 20th century using icoads and the Kobe collection,Data for the 20th century from the International Comprehensive Ocean and Atmosphere Data Set and the Kobe Collection have been used as input data for global objective analyses of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and other marine meteorological variables. This study seeks a better understanding of the historical marine meteorological data and an evaluation of the quality of the data in the Kobe Collection. Objective analyses yield gridded data that are less noisy than observed data| which facilitates handling of historical data. The observed data determine the quality of the objective analyses| and quality control specified for historical data is incorporated into the objective analysis to reduce artificial errors. The objective analyses are based on optimum interpolation and reconstruction with empirical orthogonal functions. The final database produced in this study not only contains analysed values| but also analysis errors and data distributions at each time step of the objective analyses. The analysis database contains ample information on historical observations| as well as signals of marine climate variations during the century. Time series of global mean marine temperatures and cloud cover include trends linked to global warming| and local peaks appear commonly in all the time series around the 1940s. Sea-level pressure and seasurface wind fields show significant linear trends at high latitudes and over the North Pacific Ocean respectively. These trends seem to be artificial. An SST analysis used widely in climatological studies was verified against HadISST from the Hadley Centre and an SST analysis derived from satellite and in situ observations. El Nino and southern oscillation indices for the century are successfully reproduced| even though observations in the tropics are much rarer before 1950 than after 1950. Copyright (c) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. 7081,2005,2,4,Ocean warming effects on growth| reproduction| and survivorship of Southern California abalone,Traditional fisheries management in southern California has failed| in part because it is based on an assumption of an unvarying environment and is focused on size limits rather than insuring the persistence of aggregations of large fecund individuals. The combined effect of low frequency climatic variability and anthropogenic perturbations can have dramatic consequences for abalone in southern California. Abalone species are tightly linked to kelp forest ecosystems that| besides furnishing habitat| also provide the main food source for abalone. In southern California| kelp canopies are very sensitive to oceanographic climate because the kelp depend upon high nutrients in the water column. Oceanic warming| in turn| results in decreased nutrients in the surface water| and this is correlated with marked reductions in giant kelp biomass. Here we address the additive effects of ocean warming on two species of California abalone (the red abalone| Haliotis rufescens; and the green abalone| H.fulgens) by subjecting them to varied environmental conditions similar to cool| normal| and warm phases of the California current in the southern California Bight. Our experimental design simultaneously tested the synergistic effects of temperature and food quantity and quality on survivorship| growth| and reproduction. For red abalone| warm temperatures increased the onset of withering syndrome| a fatal abalone disease| and halted growth and reproduction. In contrast| green abalone survivorship| growth| and reproduction were relatively robust irrespective of temperature| while their growth and reproduction were most strongly influenced by food quantity. We found clear evidence suggesting that| combined with overfishing| California abalone populations are adversely affected by ecosystem responses to ocean warming: Coolwater red abalone suffer stronger consequences in warm water than do green abalone. Conservation| restoration| and recovery plans of remnant California abalone populations must consider these relationships when taking any action. 1810,2005,4,2,On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget,We examine the results linking cosmic ray flux ( CRF) variations to global climate change. We then proceed to study various periods over which there are estimates for the radiative forcing| temperature change and CRF variations relative to today. These include the Phanerozoic as a whole| the Cretaceous| the Eocene| the Last Glacial Maximum| the 20th century| as well as the 11- yr solar cycle. This enables us to place quantitative limits on climate sensitivity to both changes in the CRF| and the radiative budget| F| under equilibrium. Under the assumption that the CRF is indeed a climate driver| the sensitivity to variations in the globally averaged relative change in the tropospheric ionization I is consistently fitted with mu &3bond; ( dT(global)/ dI) approximate to 7.5 +/- 2 degrees K. Additionally| the sensitivity to radiative forcing changes is lambda &3bond; dT(global)/ dF = 0.35 +/- 0.09 degrees KW(-1)m(2)| at the current temperature| while its temperature derivative is undetectable with (d lambda/ dT)(0) = - 0.01 +/- 0.04 m(2)W(-1). If the observed CRF/ climate link is ignored| the best sensitivity obtained is lambda = 0.54 +/- 0.12 degrees KW-1 m(2) and ( d lambda/ dT)(0) = - 0.02 +/- 0.05 m(2) W-1. Note that this analysis assumes that different climate conditions can be described with at most a linear function of T; however| the exact sensitivity probably depends on various additional factors. Moreover| l was mostly obtained through comparison of climate states notably different from each other| and thus only describes an average sensitivity. Subject to the above caveats and those described in the text| the CRF/ climate link therefore implies that the increased solar luminosity and reduced CRF over the previous century should have contributed a warming of 0.47 +/- 0.19 degrees K| while the rest should be mainly attributed to anthropogenic causes. Without any effect of cosmic rays| the increase in solar luminosity would correspond to an increased temperature of 0.16 +/- 0.04 degrees K. 7062,2005,2,4,On long-term variations of simple geomagnetic indices and slow changes in magnetospheric currents: The emergence of anthropogenic global warming after 1990?,We introduce very simple indices based on hourly mean values of geomagnetic components measured in observatories which we show can characterise many aspects of magnetic activity. When data from observatories with very long records (close to a century) are averaged over| say 11yr (the solar cycle)| these indices display remarkably similar time variations| allowing us to define an "overall magnetic trend' with smooth| decade long| variations separated by rather sharp extrema at 1956| 1968 and 1990. All 4 indices we propose (one for each component and a more complete one for the total vector variation) display essentially the same "overall magnetic trend"for all components and all observatories. The curves are however not strictly affine| and ratios of similar indices from two observatories vary| again with the same "overall magnetic trends| with amplitude variations up to 20%. Variations in our magnetic indices also correlate remarkably well with variations in classical| computationally more complex indices such as the magnetic index aa| with the sunspot (Wolf) number W| and solar irradiance S. This implies that both electromagnetic radiations and corpuscular flux in the vicinity of the Earth (whose original source lies in the Sun) are subject to the same variations; the current systems responsible respectively for the solar daily (regular) variation and irregular activity react roughly proportionally to the solar wind| due to corresponding changes in geometry of the magnetosphere. The "overall magnetic trend'' bears some puzzling resemblances to long-term internal geomagnetic secular variations| with its discrete jerks. Finally| our indices and solar irradiance co-vary with long-term averages in global temperature of the lower atmosphere until approximately 1990| when the temperature curve sharply diverges upward. This lends support to the proposal that an anthropogenic component to the change in climate may not have been the dominant effect until the last decade of the XXth century. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6878,2005,4,4,On the identification of representative samples from large data sets| with application to synoptic climatology,The analysis of large data sets in meteorological and air quality studies is often made though the examination of specific case studies| especially when time-consuming computational models are employed. This paper presents the development of a tool to identify specific case studies| termed as representative days| that would subsequently be modelled. The success of such tools should be judged on the discrimination between the specified cases: and the degree to which they capture and recreate historical characteristics of the original data set. The developed approach utilises a principal component algorithm with varimax rotation (r-PCA) and the subtractive clustering algorithm coupled with a cluster validity criterion. In this paper| the developed tool is applied to a data set from the North Sea| utilizing two years worth of data from the DNMI operational forecasting model. The results will be subsequently used in photochemical and radiative forcing modelling tools as part of the EC funded project AEOLOS| with the ultimate goal to estimate the global warming potential of non-radioactive tracing substances such as SF6 and PFCs| which are heavily used in the oil industry.The analysis of large data sets in meteorological and air quality studies is often made though the examination of specific case studies| especially when time-consuming computational models are employed. This paper presents the development of a tool to identify specific case studies| termed as representative days| that would subsequently be modelled. The success of such tools should be judged on the discrimination between the specified cases: and the degree to which they capture and recreate historical characteristics of the original data set. The developed approach utilises a principal component algorithm with varimax rotation (r-PCA) and the subtractive clustering algorithm coupled with a cluster validity criterion. In this paper| the developed tool is applied to a data set from the North Sea| utilizing two years worth of data from the DNMI operational forecasting model. The results will be subsequently used in photochemical and radiative forcing modelling tools as part of the EC funded project AEOLOS| with the ultimate goal to estimate the global warming potential of non-radioactive tracing substances such as SF6 and PFCs| which are heavily used in the oil industry. 1877,2005,4,4,One- and three-hour PM2.5 characterization| speciation| and source apportionment using continuous and integrated samplers,Ammonium nitrate and semivolatile organic compounds (SVOC) are significant components of fine particles in many urban atmospheres. These components| however| are not properly measured by current EPA accepted methods| such as the R&P TEOM monitor| due to loss of semivolatile material (SVM) from particles in the heated environment of the filter during sampling. The accurate determination of semivolatile material is important due to the possible effects of these species on human health| visibility| and global climate change. The concentration and composition of fine particulate material were determined using a combination of continuous and integrated samplers at the Brigham Young University-EPA Environmental Monitoring for Public Access and Community Tracking (BYU-EPA EMPACT) monitoring site in Salt Lake City| Utah over a six-day sampling period (30 January to 4 February) during the winter of 2001. Continuous samples were collected using a RAMS (total PM2.5 mass)| a TEOM monitor (nonvolatile PM2.5 mass)| an Aethalometer (elemental carbon)| a TSI CPC (particle count)| and a Nephelometer (light scattering by particles| bsp). Fine particle composition and mass were determined on a three-hour basis using the PC-BOSS diffusion denuder sampler. Total PM2.5 mass-determined with the RAMS agreed with constructed mass determined from the chemical composition measured in collocated PC-BOSS-integrated samples. Results from this study indicate that semivolatile material (ammonium nitrate and semivolatile organic compounds) is a significant component of fine particle mass. Semivolatile organic compounds were the major contributor to light scattering during the six-day sampling period. Semivolatile nitrate| but not organic material| was suggested to be hygroscopic by the nephelometric data. The majority of the SVM observed appeared to be secondary material formed from photochemical reactions of the organic and NOx emissions from mobile sources and wood smoke combustion. 7094,2005,2,4,Onset of flowering and climate variability in an alpine landscape: A 10-year study from Swedish Lapland,Long-term studies on phenology are rarely reported from arctic and alpine areas| but are essential for understanding biotic and abiotic controls on flowering. We monitored first flowering day (FFD) for 144 species in a subarctic-alpine area in Swedish Lapland over a period of 10 yr (1992-2001). Temperature and global radiation were monitored continuously| and snowcover duration was observed. Thawing degree-days and snowcover duration (exposure) were the dominant environmental controls on phenology. We introduce a lability index (LI) to describe the interannual variability in FFD among species. The temporal sequence of species is very constant among years| although a few species are more labile. The species were also classified into the catagories "Functional type|" "Raunkiaer's life form|" and "Sorensen's wintering floral type." The last two reflected the environmental data best| and together with "Exposure" they were combined into a phenology index (PI). The index was subsequently used in a triangular ordination together with FFD. The ordination illustrates whether species flower earlier or later than expected from their preconditions. We hypothesize that species having a delayed flowering respond more readily to global warming than species having an already optimized flowering. 7202,2005,5,4,Onset of recent rapid sea-level rise in the western Atlantic Ocean,A high-resolution record of sea-level change spanning the past 1000 years is derived from foraminiferal and chronological analyses of a 2m thick salt-marsh peat sequence at Chezzetcook| Nova Scotia| Canada. Former mean tide level positions are reconstructed with a precision of +/- 0.055 in using a transfer function derived from distributions of modern salt-marsh foraminifera. Our age model for the core section older than 300 years is based on 19 AMS C-14 ages and takes into account the individual probability distributions of calibrated radiocarbon ages. The past 300 years is dated by pollen and the isotopes Pb-206| Pb-207| Pb-210| Cs-137 and Am-241. Between AD 1000 and AD 1800| relative sea level rose at a mean rate of 17cm per century. Apparent pre-industrial rises of sea level dated at AD 1500-1550 and AD 1700-1800 cannot be clearly distinguished when radiocarbon age errors are taken into account. Furthermore| they may be an artefact of fluctuations in atmospheric C-14 production. In the 19th century sea level rose at a mean rate of 1.6mm/yr. Between AD 1900 and AD 1920| sea-level rise accelerated to the modern mean rate of 3.2mm/yr. This acceleration corresponds in time with global temperature rise and may therefore be associated with recent global warming. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7235,2005,3,4,Optimal land use-transport strategies - Methodology and application to European cities,There has been growing interest in Europe in the development of integrated transport strategies| in which individual policy instruments are combined to complement one another and to achieve improved performance against a given set of policy objectives. This paper applies an optimization procedure to identify optimal strategies for packages of transport policy instruments without| and then with| constraints on finance and targets for global warming and safety. Some exploratory tests have also been carried out on land use strategies| and they are reported here in brief. Results demonstrate that the methodology is robust and can be applied with different transport models and with constraints applied both to policy instruments and to objectives. All optimal strategies found involved substantial reductions in fare levels throughout the study area. Where it was not possible to change fares| the strategies were substantially less effective when measured against the objectives. Most optimal strategies involved increases in public transport frequencies| although their scale varied between cities. All optimal strategies included peak-period cordon charges to enter the city center| I hough the optimal level varied between cities. Financially constrained strategies were found to involve smaller fare reductions and higher cordon charges; in some cases frequency increases were smaller. These constrained optima still performed well; the greatest reduction in benefit was only 15%. The net present value of the benefit generated was about EURO2|000M (EURO1 = $1.20 US| 2005) in Edinburgh and more than EURO4|000M in Leeds| United Kingdom. The impact of transport strategies on land use was small| and development constraints had to be used to reverse urban sprawl. 6780,2005,3,4,Optimization of a CO2-C3H8 cascade system for refrigeration and heating,Conventional working fluids (refrigerants) are being phased out worldwide to combat with the twin menace of ozone layer depletion and global warming and natural refrigerants are fast gaining favour lately. Single stage and multi stage refrigeration systems fail to widen the gap between heat source and heat sink temperatures required in many industrial applications requiring simultaneous heating and cooling and cascaded systems appear to be the best alternative. Modest research has been done in cascaded systems based on natural refrigerants thereby offering good potential for research. In this paper| a cascaded system for simultaneous heating and cooling (refrigeration and heat pump system) with a carbon dioxide based HT cycle and propane based LT cycle for simultaneous refrigeration and heating applications has been analyzed. To facilitate prediction of optimum performance parameters| performance trends with variation in the design parameters and operating variables have been presented in this article. Relevant expressions have been developed to serve as guidelines to the user for selecting appropriate design parameters like intermediate temperature so that the system yields optimum performance. Independently developed property codes have been employed for both carbon dioxide and propane for higher accuracy. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 1858,2005,5,4,Origin of the highly elevated Pyrenean peneplain,[1] Peneplanation of mountain ranges is generally considered the result of long-term erosional processes that smooth relief and lower elevation near sea level. Therefore peneplain remnants at high elevation in mountain ranges are used to infer posttectonic surface uplift. Such an interpretation has been proposed for the Pyrenees where high-elevation| low-relief erosional surfaces rose up to more than 2000 m. Because the Pyrenean foreland basins are filled with very thick continental deposits| which have buried the early jagged landscape| we challenge this hypothesis by pointing out that relief applanation does not necessarily require elevation lowering. We propose an alternative interpretation in which piedmont aggradation of detrital sediment that comes from erosion of the high chain induces the rise of the base level of the range| therefore reducing strongly the erosive efficiency of the drainage system and resulting in the progressive smoothing of the relief. Such a process allows a high-elevation| low-relief erosional surface to develop at the scale of the range. In the Pyrenees| occurrence of high-elevation| low-relief erosional surface remnants does not imply a posttectonic uplift| but is instead due to the dissection of the initial Miocene high-elevation| low-relief surface by the recent drainage system| the erosive activity of which has been enhanced by global climate change from the late Pliocene onward. 1917,2005,5,4,Paleoceanographic records and sea ice extension history on the slope of the northern Bering Sea over the last 100 ka BP,Quantitative analytic results of the biogenic components in Core B2-9 from the northern Bering Sea slope indicate that the coarse fraction and opal content| serving as proxies of surface productivity| have increased stepwise since the marine isotope stage(MIS)5.3| reflecting periodic enhancement in surface productivity. The surface productivity attained its highest level during the Holocene| followed by MIS 3.2 to 2 and then MIS 5.3 to 3.3 with a lowest level. High total organic carbon(TOC) contents| together with high C/N ratios| which stand mostly between 7 and 20| show that the TOC was deposited from mixing sources. Therefore|one has to be cautious to use TOC as a proxy of surface productivity. The high TOC and C/N ratio during MIS 5.1| 3.3 to 3.2 and the Holocene reflect that the terrigenous organic matter input increased during interglacial periods. Increases in the fine- and silt-grained terrigenous components from MIS 5.3 to the middle Holocene imply that with the cooling climate| sea ice on the Bering Sea slope extended continuously. Ice-rafted and charcoal detritus increased during glacial| interstadial and the last deglaciation periods and decreased during interglacial periods| suggesting that sea ice on the slope increased and melted| respectively| during glacial and interglacial periods. The extension of sea ice during glacial periods|which was linked with the climate over the North American Continent| responded to global climate change during late Quaternary glacial and interglacial cycles. 6846,2005,5,4,Palynology and organic-carbon isotope ratios across a terrestrial Palaeocene/Eocene boundary section in the Williston Basin| North Dakota| USA,The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at 55 Ma marks the Palaeocene/Eocene (P/E) boundary and represents a discrete period of abrupt| transient global warming. There are few vegetation records from within the PETM and such an absence of data prevents modelling of the vegetation response to climate warming. Outcrops exposing the Sentinel Butte member (upper Fort Union Formation) and the Golden Valley Formation (Bear Den and lower Camels Butte members) within the Williston Basin of western North Dakota| USA are known to span the P/E boundary. Pollen and spore floras at the Farmers Butte locality (Stark County| North Dakota; 46.92 degrees N 102.11 degrees W) record changes in abundance of some reed| fern and understorey plants across the Sentinel Butte-Bear Den contact but no other composition changes occur until the arrival of Eocene immigrants Platycarya spp. (walnut/pecan family) and Intratriporopollenites instructus (linden/sterculia/cotton tree families) at the top of the Bear Den member| c. 11 m above the change in co-occurrence and relative abundance patterns of range-through taxa. The exact stratigraphic level at which these Eocene marker taxa first occur is unclear owing to the heavily weathered nature of Bear Den strata below the Alamo Bluff lignite. This pattern of stratigraphic change may be correlative to the well documented "floral gap" of PETM records in Wyoming. Though bulk delta(13)C(org) ratios decrease by 2.4 parts per thousand across the Alamo Bluff lignite| degradation of organic carbon within the upper Bear Den member partially masks full expression of the carbon isotope excursion associated with the PETM. Hence| strata around the Alamo Bluff lignite may represent a new terrestrial record of the PETM. In agreement with terrestrial PETM records from other U.S. western interior localities| palynological data indicate no floral extinction and little composition change across the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6755,2005,2,4,Parameter sensitivity studies for the ice flow of the Ross Ice Shelf| Antarctica,[1] The diagnostic| dynamic/thermodynamic ice shelf model Finite Element Shallow Shelf Approximation Code (FESSACODE) is applied to the Ross Ice Shelf. We simulate the present ice flow which results from the ice thickness distribution| the inflow at the grounding line| and the surface and bottom temperatures and compare results with measured flow velocities. Our reference simulation reproduces the general flow pattern and the magnitudes of the flow velocities reasonably well. The ice flow is found to be very sensitive to the flow enhancement factor| the ice thickness| and the ice temperature but robust against inflow velocities from ice streams| glaciers| and ice rises. The ice rises (Roosevelt Island and Crary Ice Rise) stabilize the ice shelf by significantly decreasing the flow velocities for the entire ice shelf area. The ice shelf is susceptible to global warming in that a 2 degrees C surface warming entails an increase of the flow velocities by a factor 1.25| whereas a 10 degrees C warming leads to an increase by a factor 3.1. 7103,2005,4,3,Perfluorodecalin: global warming potential and first detection in the atmosphere,Perfluorodecalin (C10F18) has a range of medical uses that have led to small releases. Recently| it has been proposed as a carrier of vaccines| which could lead to significantly larger emissions. Since its emissions are controlled under the Kyoto Protocol| it is important that values for the global warming potential (GWP) are available. For a 50:50 mixture of the two isomers of perfluorodecalin| laboratory measurements| supplemented by theoretical calculations| give an integrated absorption cross-section of 3.91 x 10(-16) cm(2) molecule(-1) cm(-1) over the spectral region 0-1500 cm(-1); calculations yield a radiative efficiency of 0.56 W m(-2) ppbv(-1) and a 100-year GWP| relative to carbon dioxide| of 7200 assuming a lifetime of 1000 years. We report the first atmospheric measurements of perfluorodecalin| at Bristol| UK and Mace Head| Ireland| where volume mixing ratios are about 1.5 x 10(-15). At these concentrations| it makes a trivial contribution to climate change| but on a per molecule basis it is a potent greenhouse gas| indicating the need for careful assessment of its possible future usage. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7182,2005,2,4,Perspectives on the production of a glacier inventory from multispectral satellite data in Arctic Canada: Cumberland Peninsula| Baffin Island,The consequences of global warming on land ice masses are difficult to assess in detail| as two-dimensional glacier inventory data are still missing for many remote regions of the world. As the largest future temperature increase is expected to occur at high latitudes| the glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic will be particularly susceptible to the expected warming. This study demonstrates the possibilities of space-borne glacier inventorying at a remote site on Cumberland Peninsula| a part of Baffin Island in Arctic Canada| thereby providing glacier inventory data for this region. Our approach combines Landsat ETM+ and Terra ASTER satellite data| an ASTER-derived digital elevation model (DEM) and Geographic Information System-based processing. We used thresholded ratio images from ETM+ bands 3 and 5 and ASTER bands 3 and 4 for glacier mapping. Manual delineation of Little Ice Age trimlines and moraines has been applied to calculate area changes for 225 glaciers| yielding an average area loss of 11%. A size distribution has been obtained for 770 glaciers that is very different from that for Alpine glaciers. Numerous three-dimensional glacier parameters were derived from the ASTER DEM for a subset of 340 glaciers. The amount of working time required for the processing has been tracked| and resulted in 5 min per glacier| or 7 years for all estimated 160 000 glaciers worldwide. 6868,2005,3,4,PFC emission-reduction strategy for the LCD industry,The perfluorocarbons ( PFCs) used as etching-process and chamber-cleaning gases in the manufacture of LCD devices have a high global-warming potential and a long atmospheric lifetime. Thus| to voluntarily reduce these environmentally harmful PFCs| in 2001 the Japanese LCD association established the World LCD Industry Cooperation Committee (WLICC)| together with its counterpart associations in the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. Since that time involving many discussions| the WLICC reached a consensus on reducing the aggregate absolute PFC emissions to the equivalent of less than 0.82 million metric tons of carbon by 2010. Each association has been taking whatever emission reduction steps it considers best to achieve this goal. Thanks to these measures| the PFC emissions from the Japanese LCD industry have remained at the same level| or less| than those of the year 2000| in spite of the fact that PFC purchases have continually increased. In the interim| the Japanese LCD association has been obtaining experimental data for the 2006 IPCC Inventory Guidelines| which will give the emission factors needed to estimate the PFC emissions. As a result| some data are quite different from emission factors given in the current 2000 Inventory Guidelines. All the data obtained have been submitted to the IPCC to be adopted in the new 2006 Guidelines. 6884,2005,2,4,Phenology of temperate trees in tropical climates,Several North American broad-leaved tree species range from the northern United States at similar to 47 degrees N to moist tropical montane forests in Mexico and Central America at 15-20 degrees N. Along this gradient the average minimum temperatures of the coldest month (T (Jan))| which characterize annual variation in temperature| increase from -10 to 12 degrees C and tree phenology changes from deciduous to leaf-exchanging or evergreen in the southern range with a year-long growing season. Between 30 and 45 degrees N| the time of bud break is highly correlated with T (Jan) and bud break can be reliably predicted for the week in which mean minimum temperature rises to 7 degrees C. Temperature-dependent deciduous phenology-and hence the validity of temperature-driven phenology models-terminates in southern North America near 30 degrees N| where T (Jan)> 7 degrees C enables growth of tropical trees and cultivation of frost-sensitive citrus fruits. In tropical climates most temperate broad-leaved species exchange old for new leaves within a few weeks in January-February| i.e.| their phenology becomes similar to that of tropical leaf-exchanging species. Leaf buds of the southern ecotypes of these temperate species are therefore not winter-dormant and have no chilling requirement. As in many tropical trees| bud break of Celtis| Quercus and Fagus growing in warm climates is induced in early spring by increasing daylength. In tropical climates vegetative phenology is determined mainly by leaf longevity| seasonal variation in water stress and day length. As water stress during the dry season varies widely with soil water storage| climate-driven models cannot predict tree phenology in the tropics and tropical tree phenology does not constitute a useful indicator of global warming. 6753,2005,3,3,Photo reduction of CO2 to methanol using optical-fiber photoreactor,Greenhouse gases such as CO2 are the primary cause of global warming. One of the best routes to remedy CO2 is to transform it to hydrocarbons using photo reduction. CO2 was photocatalytically reduced to produce methanol using a Hg lamp with wavelength 365 nm in a steady-state optical fiber photoreactor. The optical-fiber photoreactor| comprised of nearly 120 CU/TiO2-coated fibers| was designed and assembled to transmit and spread light uniformly inside the reactor. TiO2 film was coated on optical fiber using a dip-coating method. Cu-loaded titania solutions were prepared by a thermal hydrolysis method. The thickness of Cu/TiO2 film was 53 nm. The coating film consisted of very fine spherical particles with diameters of near 14 nm. The XRD spectra indicated the anatase phase for all TiO2 and Cu/TiO2 films. The wavelength of absorption edge on Cu/ TiO2 was near 367 nm| equivalent to a bandgap of 3.3 eV. The most active Cu species on TiO2 surface were Cu2O clusters| and they played an important role for the formation of methanol. The methanol yield increased with UV irradiative intensity. Maximum methanol rate was 0.45 mu mole/g cat h using 1.2 wt.%-Cu/TiO2 catalyst at 1.29 bar of CO2| 0.026 bar of H2O| and 5000 s mean residence time under 16 W/cm(2) UV irradiation. Higher than 1.2 wt.% Cu loading gave a lower rate of methanol yield because of the masking effect Of Cu2O clusters on the TiO2 surface. The Langmuir-Hinshelwood model was established by correlating experimental data to describe the kinetic behavior. An optimum pressure ratio of H2O/CO2 was found in the photo reduction of CO2 for maximum methanol yield. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7159,2005,3,2,Photo reduction of CO2 to methanol via TiO2 photocatalyst,Greenhouse gas such as CO2 is the primary cause of global warming. Alternative energy source should be provided without producing more CO2| such as solar energy. One of the best routes to remedy CO2 is to transform it to hydrocarbons using photo reduction. In our study| CO2 was photocatalytically reduced to produce methanol using a Hg lamp with wavelength 365 nm in a steady-state optical-fiber photo reactor. The optical-fiber photo reactor| comprised of near 120 Cu/TiO2-coated fibers| was designed and assembled to transmit and spread light uniformly inside reactor. TiO2 film was coated on optical fiber using dip-coating method. Titania and Cu-loaded solutions were prepared by a thermal hydrolysis method. The thickness of Cu/TiO2 film was 53 nm and consisted of very. ne spherical particle with diameter of near 14 nm. The XRD spectra indicated the anatase phase of all TiO2 and Cu/ TiO2 films. The wavelength of absorption edge was on 367 nm| equivalent to near 3.3 eV. Most active Cu species on TiO2 surface were Cu2O clusters| and played an important role for the formation of methanol. The methanol yield increased with UV irradiative intensity. Photo activity increased with increasing Cu loadings. Maximum methanol rate was 0.45 mu mole/g-cat center dot hr using 1.2 wt%- Cu/TiO2 catalyst under 16W/cm(2) irradiation| 1.3 bar pressure of CO2| and 5000 seconds mean residence time. Higher than 1.2 wt% Cu loading gave less rate of methanol yield because of the masking effect of Cu2O clusters on the surface of TiO2. 6808,2005,4,4,Photolysis study of perfluoro-2-methyl-3-pentanone under natural sunlight conditions,The UV-vis and infrared absorption cross sections of perfluoro-2-methyl-3-pentanone (CF3CF2C(O)CF(CF3)(2)| 1|1|1|2|2|4|5|5|5-nonafluoro-4-(trifluoromethyl)-3-pentanone) has been obtained| and a photolysis study was carried out under natural sunlight conditions in the European simulation chamber| Valencia| Spain (EUPHORE). The photolysis loss rate| J(photol)| equaled (6.4 +/- 0.3) x 10(-6) s(-1) in the period of 10(-14) GMT| July 14| 2003 in Valencia (0.5 W| 39.5 N) and corresponded to an effective quantum yield of photolysis of 0.043 +/- 0.011 over the wavelength range of 290-400 nm; the error limits correspond to 2 sigma from the statistical analyses. The atmospheric lifetime of CF3C(O)CF(CF3)(2) is estimated to be around 1 week| and the global warming potential of the compound is negligible. 6924,2005,2,4,Photoperiodic changes according to global warming in wing-form determination and diapause induction of a water strider| Aquarius paludum (Heteroptera : Gerridae),In the 1991-strain of Aquarius paludum in Kochi| both critical photoperiods for wing-form and diapause shifted to longer values by I h when specimens were grown under gradually decreasing photoperiods. However| the 1999-strain didn't respond at all to decreasing (14.5L to 13.5L) or increasing (12.5L to 13.5L) photoperiods. Photoperiodic response for wing-form determination by the 2002-strain was witnessed only in a small range between 60% and 95% as the proportion of long-winged form| and the critical photoperiod (14L) was a little bit longer than the critical value of 13.75L for the 1991-strain. The critical photoperiod for diapause induction in the 2002-strain was estimated to be 13.5L-10.513 under a constant photoperiod| which was one-half hour longer than that of the 13L-11D shown by the 1991-strain. In August and September in Kochi| the critical day lengths for wing-form determination and diapause induction of the 1999-2002-strains remain to be 14L-10D and 13.5L-10.5D| respectively| even under decreasing day-length. Therefore| the two critical values were "shorter" than those of "15L-9D" and "14L-10D" of the 1991-strain. The annual average temperature (17.1 +/- 0.5 degrees C) and annual average high and low temperatures (35.6 +/- 1.3| -3.1 +/- 0.9) in 1991-2000 were higher than those (16.4 +/- 0.5| 34.9 +/- 1.1| -4.4 +/- 1.4) a decade ago (1981-1990). In Kochi| the global warming in the last two decades may have caused A. paludum to select "shorter" critical photoperiods for the currently dominant strain (1999-2002-strain) in terms of wing-form determination and diapause induction under decreasing day-length in August to October (14.8 h to 11.5 h) in compared to the former strain (1991-strain) dominant a decade ago. This "shorter" critical photoperiod leads to a longer active fall season for reproduction and larval growth of A. paludum. 1793,2005,2,4,Photoreactivation in two freshwater ciliates: differential responses to variations in UV-B flux and temperature,The effects of UV-B radiation on 2 ciliate species (Glaucoma sp. and Cyclidium sp.) from a clear oligotrophic lake were examined under laboratory conditions with and without photoreactivating radiation (PRR: UV-A and visible light). Glaucoma sp. was exposed to 3 UV-B intensities at 4 temperatures to simulate a range of environmentally relevant conditions. Population growth of Glaucoma sp. declined with increasing levels of UV-B exposure in treatments receiving PRR; blocking PRR generally resulted in 100% mortality. Occurrence of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs [mb DNA](-1)) was significantly reduced in Glaucoma sp. receiving PRR relative to those without PRR. These data indicate that photoenzymatic repair is a major component of UV-B tolerance in Glaucoma. At UV-B levels that Glaucoma sp. tolerated| Cyclidium sp. suffered 100% mortality and accumulated a similar level of CPDs whether or not PRR was blocked. Incubation of the 2 ciliates under UV-transparent and UV-blocking acrylics in the oligotrophic lake confirmed their relative sensitivities to UV radiation (UVR). Photoenzymatic repair in Glaucoma sp. was more efficient at 20 degrees C than at 10| 15 and 25 degrees C. The temperature-dependent nature of photoenzymatic repair underscores the need to consider the interactive effects of temperature and UVR on biota| particularly in the face of global climate change and rising incident UVR due to ozone depletion. 7072,2005,4,4,Physiological ecology in the 21st Century: Advancements in biologging Science,Top pelagic predators such as tunas| sharks| marine turtles and mammals have historically been difficult to study due to their large body size and vast range over the oceanic habitat. In recent years the development of small microprocessor-based data storage tags that are surgically implanted or satellite-linked provide marine researchers a novel avenue for examining the movements| physiology and behaviors of pelagic animals in the wild. When biological and physical data obtained from the tags are combined with satellite derived sea surface temperature and ocean color data| the relationships between the movements| behaviors and physical ocean environment can be examined. Tag-bearing marine animals can function as autonomous ocean profilers providing oceanographic data wherever their long migrations take them. The biologging science is providing ecological physiologists with new insights into the seasonal movements| habitat utilization| breeding behaviors and population structures in of marine vertebrates. In addition| the data are revealing migration corridors| hot spots and physical oceanographic patterns that are key to understanding how organisms such as bluefin tunas use the open ocean environment. In the 21st century as ecosystem degradation and global warming continue to threaten the existence of species on Earth| the field of physiological ecology will play a more pivotal role in conservation biology. 7180,2005,5,4,Pine (Pinus sylvestris) treeline dynamics during the past millennium - a population study in west-central Sweden,Dynamics of a pristine and fire-free treeline population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) over the past millennium was reconstructed at a site in the southern Swedish Scandes. At the broadest temporal scale| population change was analysed from radiocarbon-dated megafossil wood remains (stumps| trunks| etc.) lying on the ground surface. Recent stand history was derived from age structure analysis and repeated photography of the living pine population. The study population has undergone gradual and total demise (deforestation) between the 11th and 19th centuries AD| implying a transformation from a sparse forest structure to near tundra conditions. Pine establishment in the past 50 years has increased tree density to levels that might have existed more than 1000 years ago. The infer-red course of pine population change broadly concurred with local| regional and hemispheric paleoclimatic proxies and paleotreeline histories| as well as instrumental temperature records. Little establishment occurred during the cold conditions of the Little Ice Age| while pine recruitment in the latter half of the 20th century was inferred to be exceptional in the context of at least the past one thousand years. 6751,2005,2,4,Plant communities and soils in cryoturbated tundra along a bioclimate gradient in the Low Arctic| Alaska,Nonsorted circles and earth hummocks are important landscape components of the arctic tundra. Here we describe the vegetation on these frost-heave features at seven study sites along a N-S-transect from the Arctic Ocean to the Arctic Foothills| Alaska. We established 117 releves in frost-heave features and surrounding tundra and classified the vegetation according to the Braun-Blanquet sorted-table method. We used Detrended Correspondence Analysis to analyze relationships between vegetation and environmental variables. We identified nine communities: Braya purpurascens-Puccinellia angustata community (dry nonsorted circles| subzone C); Dryas integrifolia-Salix arctica community (dry tundra| subzone C); Salici rotundifoliae-Caricetum aquatilis ass. nov. (moist coastal tundra| subzone C); Junco biglumis-Dryadetum integrifoliae ass. nov. (moist nonsorted circles| subzone D); Dryado integrifoliae-Caricetum bigelowii Walker et al. 1994 (moist tundra| subzone D); Scorpidium scorpioides-Carex aquatilis community (wet tundra| subzone D); Cladino-Vaccinietum vitis-idaeae ass. nov. (dry nonsorted circles and earth hummocks| subzone E); Sphagno-Erlophoretum vaginati Walker et al. 1994 (moist tundra| subzone E); and Anthelia juratzkana-Juncus biglumis community (wet nonsorted circles| subzone E). The DCA ordination displayed the vegetation types with respect to complex environmental gradients. The first axis of the ordination corresponds to a bioclimate/pH gradient| and the second axis corresponds to a disturbance/soil moisture gradient. Frost-heave features are dominated by lichens| whereas the adjacent tundra supports more dwarf shrubs| graminoids and mosses. Frost-heave features have greater thaw depths| more bare ground| thinner organic horizons and lower soil moisture than the surrounding tundra. The morphology of frost-heave features changes along the climatic gradient| with large| barren nonsorted circles dominating the northern sites and vegetated| less active earth hummocks dotting the southern sites. Thawing of permafrost and a possible shift in plant community composition due to global warming could lead to a decline in frost-heave features and result in the loss of landscape heterogeneity. 1900,2005,2,4,Plant growth and water use efficiency of four Chinese conifer tree species under different air humidity,Air humidity is an important controlling factor for the establishment of tree seedlings. It is predicted that the annual amount of rainfall will decline in some parts of China due to the global climate change in the foreseeable future. There is limited information on the potential responses of this region's forest to the global climate change. Our study investigated the responses of four major Chinese conifer tree species to air humidity variations. Seedlings of Pinus massoniana Lamb. var. massoniana| Pinus tabulaeformis Carr. var. tabulaeformis| Platycladus orientalis (Linn.) Franco cv. Sieboldii and Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook were grown in controlled environment chambers under four different air humidity (RH: 40| 50| 60 and 70% or VPD: 2.4| 2.0| 1.6 and 1.2 kPa). Results showed that the growth of these four species responded to air humidity differently. P. massoniana was the most sensitive species| P. tabulaeformis and P. orientalis were less sensitive and C. lanceolata was the least sensitive species. However| the biomass increment (Delta biomass) and the relative growth rate (RGR) over the experimental period were higher under the RH 70% treatment than that under the 40% treatment for all the four species. Delta biomass and RGR were reduced by 54% and 47%| respectively| under the RH 40% treatment compared with those under the RH 70% treatment for P. massoniana| 24% and 12% for P. tabulaeformis| 22 % and 16 % for P. orientalis| 9% and 5% for C. lanceolata. The decreased growth under drier air conditions was partially due to the closure of leaf stomata and subsequently the depression of photosynthesis. Plants under higher humidity conditions had higher water use efficiency (WUE). There was a positive linear relationship between WUE and RH in all the four species. Our results may suggest that if air humidity becomes lower in some regions of China in the future| the area of distribution for the humidity sensitive species P. Massoniana may become smaller or this species may move to higher humidity region while the other three species will be less affected by this change. 7160,2005,2,4,Plant invasions in treeless vegetation of the Australian Alps,A total of 128 invasive plant species have been recorded in treeless vegetation in the Australian Alps. Most of these are forbs and most are uncommon. Cover of invasive species is generally minimal unless there has been gross disturbance to natural vegetation and soils. Although there is a significantly positive correlation between invasive and native species diversity| suggesting that conditions that allow numerous native species to co-exist also permit more plant invasions| altitude is the most important determinant of invasive species diversity. Only 22 of the 128 species have been recorded above 1800 in. Some plant communities (e.g. those with high pH or relatively nutrient-rich soils)| however| seem to be vulnerable to invasions regardless of altitude. Most invasive species appear to have been introduced unintentionally (e.g. as seed attached to vehicles| animals and humans) but a few were introduced to assist with revegetation of disturbed soils and for amenity plantings in ski resorts| and have subsequently established in native vegetation. Treeless communities in the Australian Alps are likely to face increasing pressure from invasive species as a result of global warming and continued introduction of non-native plants to ski resort gardens. Whilst it may be difficult to prevent invasive species of low elevations migrating to higher elevations as temperatures rise| the risk of invasion from garden plants could be minimised through regulation. Non-native plants in ski resort gardens pose a far greater risk than most invasive species currently present in the Alps because they have been chosen for their capacity to survive at high altitudes. Crown Copyright (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier GmbH on behalf of Rubel Foundation| ETH Zurich. All rights reserved. 6865,2005,2,4,Plant nitrogen concentration| use efficiency| and contents in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem under experimental warming,Plant nitrogen (N) relationship has the potential to regulate plant and ecosystem responses strongly to global warming but has not been carefully examined under warmed environments. This study was conducted to examine responses of plant N relationship (i.e. leaf N concentration| N use efficiency| and plant N content in this study) to a 4-year experimental warming in a tallgrass prairie in the central Great Plains in USA. We measured mass-based N and carbon (C) concentrations of stem| green| and senescent leaves| and calculated N resorption efficiency| N use efficiency| plant N content| and C : N ratios of five dominant species (two C-4 grasses| one C-3 grass| and two C-3 forbs). The results showed that warming decreased N concentration of both green and senescent leaves| and N resorption efficiency for all species. N use efficiencies and C : N ratios were accordingly higher under warming than control. Total plant N content increased under warming because of warming-induced increases in biomass production that are larger than the warming-induced decreases in tissue N concentration. The increases in N contents in both green and senescent plant tissues suggest that warming enhanced both plant N uptake and return through litterfall in the tallgrass ecosystem. Our results also suggest that the increased N use efficiency in C-4 grasses is a primary mechanism leading to increased biomass production under warming in the grassland ecosystem. 1899,2005,2,4,Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin,Combining the temperature and precipitation data from 77 climatological stations and the climatic and hydrological change data from three headstreams of the Tarim River: Hotan| Yarkant| and Aksu in the study area| the plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin in recent years was investigated| the long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature| precipitation| and streamflow was detected| and the possible association between the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series was tested. The results obtained in this study show that during the past years| the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the speed of 5%| nearly 1 degrees C rise; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s| and a significant increase in the 1980s and 1990s| the average annual precipitation was increased with the magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and precipitation time series around 1986| which may be influenced by the global climate change. Climate change resulted in the increase of the streamflow at the headwater of the Tarim River| but the anthropogenic activities such as over-depletion of the surface water resulted in the decrease of the streamflow at the lower reaches of the Tarim River. The study result also showed that there is no significant association between the ENSO and the temperature| precipitation and streamflow. 7080,2005,5,4,Pleistocene reindeer and global warming,Current concerns for the future of reindeer and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in the far north under conditions of global warming focus on the increased energetic and predation costs associated with warmer winters and on vegetation change and increased insect harassment caused by warmer summers. At the Grotte XVI archaeological site (Dordogne| southwestern France)| episodes of summer warming between about 36|000 and 12|000 radiocarbon years ago appear to be associated with lowered relative abundances of reindeer. As the Pleistocene ended and summer temperatures climbed higher| reindeer were extirpated from southern France. A similar phenomenon appears to have occurred here during the prior Eemian interglacial. These records suggest that increased summer temperatures under conditions of global warming may have a direct negative effect on reindeer and caribou populations| including a northward displacement of their southern distributional boundary. 7126,2005,3,3,Policy making for greening the concrete industry in Canada: a systems thinking approach,Portland cement production in Canada increased from 1.7 million tonnes in 1946 to more than 13 million tonnes in 2002. Although the industry is a major player in meeting infrastructural needs of Canadians| it is also a major user of natural resources such as water| natural minerals| and aggregates. Moreover| for each tonne of cement clinker produced| 1 t of CO2 is released into the atmosphere. At the same time| Canada produces nearly 5 million tonnes of fly ash each year| and yet the use of fly ash as cement replacement remains dismally low at around 17%. It is believed that through product and process innovations| more fly ash can be used in concrete| thus preserving natural resources| reducing CO2 emissions| and helping Canada meet the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. Forecasting the future impact of using fly ash in concrete has been based on qualitative and linear estimates| however| without accounting for the complexity of the problem and its dynamic feedbacks. In this paper| a novel application of system dynamics modeling| a feedback-based object-oriented modeling paradigm| is proposed to create a rational model that departs from current approaches used in modeling CO2 emissions of cement production. The model accounts for the various enablers and barriers for using fly ash in concrete| including market dynamics and technology development. It allows the user to test a wide variety of scenarios and policies| its flexible architecture permits coupling it with general economic or service life models| and its modular nature allows expanding its boundaries to include other facets of the holistic CO2 emissions problem in Canada. 1851,2005,2,4,Polychaete (Spirobranchus giganteus) loading on South African corals,1. Spirobranchus giganteus is a ubiquitous serpulid polychaete that is an obligate associate of living coral. At Sodwana Bay| South Africa| it is a conspicuous associate of Acropora clathrata plates. 2. This study explores the relationship between S. giganteus abundance and factors hypothesized to represent stress to the corals| in particular coral bleaching| diving intensity and exposure to destructive wave action as a function of depth. In addition| plate size was investigated to increase understanding of habitat selection by S. giganteus. 3. There was no significant correlation between diving intensity and S. giganteus abundance on the three reefs studied| suggesting either that the current level of diving intensity causes no stress or that S. giganteus does not indicate stress. 4. Depth influenced the size distribution of A. clathrata plates| with the larger plates being at greatest depths ( > 0.4 m(2) at depths > 14 m). 5. Extremely high S. giganteus densities 2 (most plates with number of individuals > 50 m(-2)| maximum number of individuals 413.63 m(-2) at 9m depth on one reef) were recorded at depths > 14m| with density increasing overall with depth. 6. The high densities of S. giganteus on A. clathrata plates are possibly because the plates are a physically elevated platform above the reef| where factors such as predation| competition and smothering by sand are far less important than on the reef surface. In turn| upwelling of nutrients and dependent plankton may encourage S. giganteus to maintain high population levels. 7. Climatic or other stresses are not considered currently to be responsible for these high S. giganteus densities. Rather| the worm data reflect a healthy upwelling| which may change as the coral reef becomes stressed with global climate change. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 7051,2005,4,4,Polynomial trend regression with long-memory errors,For a time series generated by polynomial trend with stationary long-memory errors| the ordinary least squares estimator (OLSE) of the trend coefficients is asymptotically normal| provided the error process is linear. The asymptotic distribution may no longer be normal| if the error is in the form of a long-memory linear process passing through certain nonlinear transformations. However| one hardly has sufficient information about the transformation to determine which type of limiting distribution the OLSE converges to and to apply the correct distribution so as to construct valid confidence intervals for the coefficients based on the OLSE. The present paper proposes a modified least squares estimator to bypass this drawback. It is shown that the asymptotic normality can be assured for the modified estimator with mild trade-off of efficiency even when the error is nonlinear and the original limit for the OLSE is non-normal. The estimator performs fairly well when applied to various simulated series and two temperature data sets concerning global warming. 7196,2005,2,4,Population age structure and recent Dracophyllum spread on subantarctic Campbell Island,Mid to late 20th century expansion of Dracophyllum scrub into tussock grassland on subantarctic Campbell Island has been attributed to the collective effects of global warming| cessation of farming in 1931| and continued grazing by feral sheep. To determine the importance of these| we dated the timing of scrub expansion by aging 241 Dracophyllum plants in 17 plots chosen to sample the range of environments this shrub/ small tree occupies on Campbell Island. Three plots| in lowland| well-drained| locations were dominated by large| old Dracophyllum that had established between 1846 and 1940. Virtually all shrubs in the remaining plots had established after 1940| with peaks in 1970 and 1985. The pattern of establishment does not coincide with any marked change in the temperature regime| although a prolonged period of relatively dry winters (c. 1970-1990) coincides with a late surge of regeneration on very wet sites. The removal of feral sheep from different parts of the island at different times is also unrelated to the pattern of establishment. In contrast| Dracophyllum spread follows farm abandonment in 1931 when regular burning ceased| suggesting that Dracophyllum is invading sites from which it was excluded by fire. However| the earliest reports from the mid 19th century indicate that tussock grassland was previously the dominant vegetation cover on the island| with limited Dracophyllum scrub. It is possible that the reduction of the dense tussock grasslands by fire and grazing in late 19th-early 20th century opened a regeneration window for Dracophyllum scrub to spread once burning ceased. 1795,2005,2,4,Possible impact of urbanization on the thermal climate of some large cities in Mexico,Urbanization has been the dominant demographic trend during the second half of the 20th century in Mexico. In 2000 there were 69 cities with more than 100|000 inhabitants of which 9 of them exceeded one million population| totalizing 53.4 million. Using time series of mean monthly temperature for about a dozen available stations| this paper sets out to examine temperature changes occurring during the late 20th century. Since it is well established that urban warming is mainly a nocturnal phenomenon minimum temperature series were selected after a test for homogeneity. Trend analysis was applied to the minimum temperature series and a linear regression coefficient was obtained. Tests of significance were performed. Most of the positive trends proved to be significant (>90%). Although temperature trend variability amongst the individual cities was large (from 0.02 degrees C/decade to 0.74 degrees C/decade) average temperature increase in large (>= 10(6) inhabitants) cities was (0.57 degrees C/decade) considerably higher than that corresponding to medium size urban centers where on the average temperature increase was 0.37 degrees C/decade. These temperature increases express not only the urbanization effect but also that due to global climate change (of the order of 0.07 degrees C/decade) and natural variability. In concluding it may be said that increasing urbanization in Mexico has originated a positive trend in urban temperatures which has implications for human comfort and health. 6901,2005,2,3,Potential effects of global warming on a water resources system in Korea,This study reports on an examination of the potential effects of global warming on a water resources system in Korea. Assuming a doubling in CO2 concentration (denoted 2CO(2))| basin-scale scenarios for precipitation and other hydrometeorologic variables were generated from the existing general circulation model (GCM) results. The generated temperature and precipitation scenarios were input to the NWS-PC model to generate the corresponding streamflow scenarios over the Geum river basin. A reservoir simulation model for Daecheong Dam in the Geum river basin has been developed using the object-oriented simulation environment| STELLA. For each streamflow scenario| the performance of the reservoir was assessed in terms of reliability| resiliency| and vulnerability. Although the simulation results are heavily dependent on the choice of climate change scenarios| the following conclusions can be made: the future streamflow over Daecheong Dam tends to decrease during the dry period| which seriously increases competitive water use issues; and flood control issues predominate under the 2CO(2)-High case. 7124,2005,3,4,Potential long-term impacts of changes in US vehicle fuel efficiency standards,Changes in corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards have not been made due| in part| to concerns over their negative impact on the economy and jobs. This paper simulates the effects of enhanced CAFE standards through 2030 and finds that such changes could increase GDP and create 300|000 jobs distributed widely across states| industries| and occupations. In addition| enhanced CAFE standards could| each year| reduce US oil consumption by 30 billion gallons| save drivers $40 billion| and reduce US greenhouse gas emissions by 100 million tons. However| there is no free lunch. There would be widespread job displacement within many industries| occupations| and states| and increased CAFE standards require that fuel economy be given priority over other vehicle improvements| increase the purchase price of vehicles| require manufacturers to produce vehicles that they otherwise would not| and require consumers to purchase vehicles that would not exist except for CAFE. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7194,2005,2,4,Precursors for resilience in coral communities in a warming climate: a belief network approach,This paper explores how successful management interventions might benefit coral reefs during the period of climate warming that is expected in coming decades. To aid this task we have developed a prototype decision-support tool| called 'ReefState'| which integrates the outcomes of management interventions within a 'belief network' of connected variables that describe future warming| coral damage and coral recovery. In a case study applied to the inshore waters of the central Great Barrier Reef| Australia| our worst case scenarios| like several others| suggest that reefs will become devoid of significant coral cover and associated biodiversity by 2050. Even under more optimistic (low) rates of future warming| the persistence of hard coral dominated reefscapes beyond 2050 will be heavily reliant on 2 things| the ability of corals to increase their upper thermal bleaching limits by similar to 0.1 degrees C per decade| and management that produces local conditions that constrain excessive algal biomass proliferation during inter-disturbance intervals. Despite being perturbed by a global warming process| management of local ecological factors will thus be of critical importance in shaping the future trajectories of coral reef ecosystems. 7048,2005,2,4,Predicted range expansion of the invasive fire ant| Solenopsis invicta| in the eastern United States based on the VEMAP global warming scenario,The red imported fire ant| Solenopsis invicta Buren| is an invasive pest from South America that currently occupies much of the south-eastern USA. Global warming is likely to allow range expansion of many invasive species| including S. invicta. We used a dynamic| ecophysiological model of fire ant colony growth coupled with models simulating climate change to predict the potential range expansion of S. invicta in the eastern USA over the next century. The climate change scenario predicted by the Vegetation-Ecosystem Modelling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) was used in our analyses. Our predictions indicate that the habitable area for S. invicta may increase by c. 5% over the next 40-50 years (a northward expansion of 33 +/- 35 km). As the pace of global warming is expected to quicken in the latter half of the century| however| the habitable area for S. invicta in 2100 is predicted to be > 21% greater than it currently is (a northward expansion of 133 +/- 68 km). Because the black imported fire ant| S. richteri Forel| occupies higher latitudes than S. invicta| the overall area of the eastern USA infested with invasive Solenopsis species could be greater than that estimated here. 6919,2005,2,3,Predicting the impact of present and future human land-use on the Great Barrier Reef,An ecohydrologic model| verified against field data| suggests that land-use has contributed to degradation of the health of the Great Barrier Reef and to an increased frequency and intensity of crown-of-thorns starfish infestations. The model also predicts that the health of the Great Barrier Reef will significantly worsen by the year 2050 as a result of global warming. However| the model also suggests that much-improved land-use practices will enable some regions of the Great Barrier Reef to recover| even with global warming. Finally| the model suggests that| if global warming proceeds unchecked| biological adaptation is necessary to avoid a collapse of the Great Barrier Reef health by the year 2100. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7217,2005,4,4,Prediction by near infrared spectroscopy of the composition of plant raw materials from the organic fertiliser industry and of crop residues from tropical agrosystems,The dynamics of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) of plant residues and organic fertilisers are of great interest for agricultural and global warming studies. The proportion of the fractions obtained from biochemical analyses (fibres by sequential Van Soest analysis) can be used for predicting both C and N transformation of organic materials in soils. Considering the expensive and time-consuming Van Soest method| the principal aim of this study was to elaborate near infrared (NIR) calibrations for fibres| in order to use them for consecutive studies (for example| our works on transformation of added organics or TAO model). A wide set of organic fertilisers and their raw materials was sampled| including plant materials originating from temperate (especially Mediterranean) and tropical regions. The particular objective of this work was to build NIR calibrations for fibre fractions| along with C and N content| in plant materials used in the organic fertiliser industry and green house gases mitigating strategies. The second particular objective was to test for two levels of validation of the equations previously elaborated: (1) validation with a set of randomly chosen samples that was not considered during the calibration step| (2) extrapolation of the predictive capacity of the equations when applying them to outliers that were previously discarded. The fibres were the best predicted parameters| as R-2=0.95| 0.91| 0.97| 0.97 for neutral detergent soluble| hemicelluloses| cellulose and lignin| respectively| whereas the characteristics of total organic matter had R-2 varying from 0.87 (N Kjeldahl) to 0.94 (C Dumas). The accuracy of the calibrations developed for fibres was confirmed by the first level of validation| since the standard errors of prediction were close to the corresponding standard errors of cross-validation and the standard errors of calibration. Nevertheless| the calibrations developed for ash and C Dumas were not so good. Surprisingly| at the second level of validation| some outliers were not so badly predicted. This can illustrate the robustness of the calibrations for cellulose| lignin and| to a lesser extent| N Dumas which are key parameters for our modelling works on C and N transformation of added organics in soils.
7231,2005,2,4,Prediction of effects of global warming on apple production regions in Japan,SUGIURA T.| KURODA H.| SUGIURA H. & HONJO H. 2005. Prediction of effects of global warming on apple production regions in Japan. - Phyton (Horn| Austria) 45 (4): (419)-(422). Most of apple trees have been cultivated in the northern part of temperate zone in Japan| since they are suitable for planting in cold climates. The crops produced in a cold area may be greatly influenced by warming. This study is undertaken to assess the impact of global warming on the production of apple (Malus domestica Borkh.) in Japan. The temperature ranges assumed to be appropriate for the cultivation of apple are 6-14 degrees C on annual mean temperature and 13-21 degrees C on mean temperature from April to October| respectively. The database of "Climate Change Mesh Data (Japan)" was used to simulate possible changes in favorable regions for the cultivation of apple with approximately 10 by 10 km resolution. The mesh data derived from IPCC IS92a-type emission scenario and four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (A-O GCMs). It was predicted that the favorable regions to cultivate apples will gradually move northward. All the plains of southern Tohoku in 2040's and central Tohoku in 2060's will be unfavorable for apple cultivation| while most of regions in Hokkaido will be suitable by 2060's. Many parts of the current apple producing districts in Japan will be possibly unfavorable by 2060's. Therefore| global warming will greatly affect the cultivation environment of apples in Japan by the middle of the 21st century.
7086,2005,3,4,Prediction of emissions using combustion parameters in a diesel engine fitted with ceramic foam diesel particulate filter through artificial neural network techniques,Diesel engines have low specific fuel consumption| but high particulate emissions| mainly soot. Diesel soot is suspected to have significant effects on the health of living beings and might also affect global warming. Hence stringent measures have been put in place in a number of countries and will be even stronger in the near future. Diesel engines require either advanced integrated exhaust after treatment systems or modified engine models to meet the statutory norms. Experimental analysis to study the emission characteristics is a time consuming affair. In such situations| the real picture of engine control can be obtained by the modeling of trend prediction. In this article| an effort has been made to predict emissions smoke and NOx using cylinder combustion derived parameters and diesel particulate filter data| with artificial neural network techniques in MATLAB environment. The model is based on three layer neural network with a back propagation learning algorithm. The training and test data of emissions were collected from experimental set up in the laboratory for different loads. The network is trained to predict the values of emission with training values. Regression analysis between test and predicted value from neural network shows least error. This approach helps in the reduction of the experimentation required to determine the smoke and NOx for the catalyst coated filters. 1902,2005,4,4,Prediction of expected global climate change by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar magnetic field data,A method of prediction of expected part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray (CR) by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar activity data prediction and determined parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms is presented. This gave possibility to make prediction of expected part of global climate change| caused by long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. In this paper| we use the model of cosmic ray modulation in the Heliosphere| which considers a relation between long-term cosmic ray variations with parameters of the solar magnetic field. The later now can be predicted with good accuracy. By using this prediction| the expected cosmic ray variations in the near Earth space also can be estimated with a good accuracy. It is shown that there are two possibilities: (1) to predict cosmic ray intensity for 1-6 months by using a delay of long-term cosmic ray variations relatively to effects of the solar activity and (2) to predict cosmic ray intensity for the next solar cycle. For the second case| the prediction of the global solar magnetic field characteristics is crucial. For both cases| reliable long-term cosmic ray and solar activity data as well as solar magnetic field are necessary. For solar magnetic field| we used results of two magnetographs (from Stanford and Kitt Peak Observatories). The obtained forecasting of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation we use for estimation of the part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray intensity changing (influenced on global cloudiness covering). (c) 2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1907,2005,3,4,Preserving biodiversity under current and future climates: a case study,Aim The conservation of biological and genetic diversity is a major goal of reserve systems at local| regional| and national levels. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources suggests a 12% threshold (area basis) for adequate protection of biological and genetic diversity of a plant community. However| thresholds based on area may protect only a small portion of the total diversity if the locations are chosen without regard to the variation within the community. The objectives of this study were to demonstrate methods to apply a coarse-filter approach for identifying gaps in the current reserve system of the Psuedotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir) forest type group based on current climatic conditions and a global climate change scenario. Location Western United States. Method We used an ecological envelope approach that was based on seven bioclimatic factors| two topographic factors| and two edaphic factors. Multivariate factor analysis was then used to reduce the envelope to two dimensions. The relative density of habitat and protected areas were identified in each part of the envelope based on the current climate and potential future climate. We used this information to identify gaps in the reserve system. Results Although the protected areas occurred in all parts of the envelope| most existed in colder and drier areas. This was true for both the current climate and potential future climate. Main conclusion To protect more of the ecological envelope| future conservation efforts would be most effective in western Oregon| north-western Washington| and north-western California. 6849,2005,2,3,Projection of future sea level and its variability in a high-resolution climate model: Ocean processes and Greenland and Antarctic ice-melt contributions,Using a high- resolution climate model| we projected future sea level and its variability based on two scenarios for 21st century greenhouse gas emission. The globally averaged sea level rise attributable to the steric contribution was 23 and 30 cm for the two scenarios. The results of the high- resolution model and a medium-resolution version of the same model for global and local sea level change agreed well. However| the high- resolution model represented more detailed ocean structure changes under global warming. The changes affected not only the spatial distribution of sea level rise| but also the changes in local sea level variability associated with ocean eddies. The enhanced eddy activity was responsible for extreme sea level events. 7201,2005,2,3,Projections of ocean climate for northwestern Pacific Ocean,The long-term adjustment processes of atmosphere and ocean in response to gradually increased atmospheric CO2 concentration have been analyzed in 70 and 140 a integrations with NCAR fully-coupled climate system model (CSM). In these experiments the CO2 concentration has been increased to double and quadruples the initial concentration| respectively. After 70 a| at the time of CO2 doubling| the model predicts surface air temperature rises by 1.2 and 1.5 K for the globe and the northwestern Pacific Ocean| respectively. The behavior of the quadrupling run is similar: each global and regional mean surface air temperatures increase by 2.8 and 3.0 K at the time of CO2 quadrupling. From the experiments| surface air temperature changes in the northwestern Pacific Ocean will be more distinctive compared with the global average| mainly due to exceptionally large warming and sea level change near the entrance of the Kuroshio extension. 7015,2005,3,2,Prospect on nanometric powders and ecological ceramic science to challenge global warming,Global warming is today regarded as the most calamities. This paper summarized its jeopardizing humanity| as well as the relevant stratagems declared by Unite Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Anthropogenic emission of carbon was greatly playing an important role since industrial revolution| when the steam engine was invented by watt about 150 year ago. Once ecological material science has been neglected| the research progress on atmosphere science became slow. The paper aimed at the burning spent gases and calcium carbonate nanoparticles can be successfully synthesized by wet-chemical segregate decarbonization technique (WCSDT)| while another environmentally conscious materials-oxynitride ceramics (Sialon etc.) were fabricated from the recycling nitrogen. The overalls utilization of spent gas to gain a good economics including a removal of carbon dioxide might be achieved. It supplies a novel process for challenging the most difficult problem in the world. Meanwhile some prospects for this study have been put forward in advance. 6866,2005,2,4,Q(10) values of soil respiration in Japanese forests,Q(10) is the most important index of soil respiration| and is essential for accurate prediction of soil carbon response to global warming. The response of soil carbon storage is an issue on global and regional scales. In this study| published Q(10) values of soil respiration in Japanese forests were examined (n = 44). The Q(10) values ranged from 1.30 to 3.45| and the mean value was 2.18 (SD = 0.61| median = 2.02). These results were slightly lower than those of global compilations. The number of studies of Q(10) values is still lacking| especially with regard to those in managed forests| those in northeast Japan| and those using modern measurement techniques such as infrared gas analysis. For accurate prediction of soil carbon dynamics and storage in Japanese forests| more such studies are required. 7091,2005,3,4,Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in life cycle assessment using the Bayesian Monte Carlo method,The traditional life cycle assessment (LCA) does not perform quantitative uncertainty analysis. However| without characterizing the associated uncertainty| the reliability of assessment results cannot be understood or ascertained. In this study| the Bayesian method| in combination with the Monte Carlo technique| is used to quantify and update the uncertainty in LCA results. A case study of applying the method to comparison of alternative waste treatment options in terms of global warming potential due to greenhouse gas emissions is presented. In the case study| the prior distributions of the parameters used for estimating emission inventory and environmental impact in LCA were based on the expert judgment from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) guideline and were subsequently updated using the likelihood distributions resulting from both national statistic and site-specific data. The posterior uncertainty distribution of the LCA results was generated using Monte Carlo simulations with posterior parameter probability distributions. The results indicated that the incorporation of quantitative uncertainty analysis into LCA revealed more information than the deterministic LCA method| and the resulting decision may thus be different. In addition| in combination with the Monte Carlo simulation| calculations of correlation coefficients facilitated the identification of important parameters that had major influence to LCA results. Finally| by using national statistic data and site-specific information to update the prior uncertainty distribution| the resultant uncertainty associated with the LCA results could be reduced. A better informed decision can therefore be made based on the clearer and more complete comparison of options. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6876,2005,5,4,Quantifying species-environment relationships in non-marine Ostracoda for ecological and palaeoecological studies: Examples using Iberian data,With current concerns over issues such as global warming| the use of palaeoecological data to reconstruct past environments has gained a special significance| but much of the work on ostracod ecology and paleoecology has been qualitative in nature| or on a site-specific rather than integrated| regional basis. Furthermore| ostracod ecological relationships are complex| with each species occupying a multidimensional niche| and a range of statistical techniques can be employed to establish the significance of different environmental variables on species distribution. We employ logistic regression (LR) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to define ostracod species niches and assemblage response to environmental gradients| using a modem dataset of 465 ostracod samples from the eastern Iberian Peninsula. In addition to these ecological analyses| we develop ostracod-based transfer functions for the quantitative reconstruction of past environmental change from a modem regional data-set of non-marine ostracod and limnological data| by means of weighted averaging (WA) regression and calibration. Examples cited are primarily from modem and fossil ostracod samples from Iberian water bodies. Our results suggest that water chemistry (solute composition and concentration) and temperature are the factors to which non-marine ostracod species respond in a more clear and consistent way. Species-environment relationships modelled using the transfer-function approach of WA are strong for the above-mentioned variables| and therefore these models may be of great help in palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6902,2005,3,4,Quantitative assessment on the embodied environmental impact of concrete with or without fly ash,According to the life cycle assessment and the environmental design method of industry production| a quantitative assessment| model for the embodied environmental impact of concrete with or without fly ash was proposed. The environmental burden impact indicator (EBII)| the resources depletion impact indicator (RDII)| and the environmental impact comprehensive indicator (EICI) are defined. The specific-environmental impact values of different grade concretes with or without fly ash were presented. In the embodied process of concrete with| or without. fly ash| the key potential environmental impact categories are global warming and dust emission| aim] it is an effective way for reducing the embodied environmental impact of concrete to mix fly ash and lower grade cement. The method presented in this paper makes it possible to quantitatively assess the embodied environmental impact of concrete with or without fly ash. The results calculated in. this paper can be used to quantitatively assess the life cycle environmental impact of construction materials and buildings. 7052,2005,5,4,Quaternary ichnofacies model for paleoenvironmental and paleosealevel interpretations: a study from the Banas River Basin| western India,Integration of data from ichnological and other interdisciplinary sources from the Quaternary Banas River Basin (India) has permitted the reconstruction of a composite ichnofacies model for the interpretation of paleoenvironments and paleosealevels. A glacioeustatic transgressive-regressive system tract of the ancient Arabian Sea has been recognized from the superposition of ichnofacies. The Pleistocene shallow marine Psilonichnus ichnofacies (ichnogenus Psilonichnus| Skolithos| Arenicolites and Thalassinoides of infaunal polychaete| crab and bivalve origin)| developed in the Vadpag-Vend segment of the lower Banas sequence| corresponds to interglacial high sea stands. The overlying late Pleistocene-Holocene continental Coprinisphaera-Scoyenia mixed ichnofacies (paleosol association of delicate surficial traces of terrestrial insects and river floodplain association of aquatic traces of worms and crustaceans)| formed in the Radhanpur-Varahi segment of the upper Banas sequence| represents the Last Glacial regressive mode of scalevel. Levee-bound oriented crustacean burrows may be used as new ichnological tools to locate buried paleochannels and aquifers. The juxtaposition of levees with alternate worm burrow and barren zones and floodplains with gastropod and barren zones indicates monsoonal lows and highs in the Holocene. The overprinting of the Coprinisphaera elements on the Scoyenia forms has resulted from the Recent-sub-Recent environmental degradations (rising temperature| spread of desert| shrinking saltmarshes and weakened fluvial forces) probably related to global warming and other Greenhouse processes. The readable ichnological signatures of the Quaternary glacioeustatic sealevel fluctuations and consequent climatic changes qualify the Banas model for wider application. (c) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 7043,2005,2,3,Radiative damping of annual variation in global mean surface temperature: comparison between observed and simulated feedback,The sensitivity of the global climate is essentially determined by the radiative damping of the global mean surface temperature anomaly through the outgoing radiation from the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Using the TOA fluxes of terrestrial and reflected solar radiation obtained from the Earth radiation budget experiment (ERBE)| this study estimates the magnitude of the overall feedback| which modifies the radiative damping of the annual variation of the global mean surface temperature| and compare it with model simulations. Although the pattern of the annually varying anomaly is quite different from that of the global warming| the analysis conducted here may be used for assessing the systematic bias of the feedback that operates on the CO2-induced warming of the surface temperature. In the absence of feedback effect| the outgoing terrestrial radiation at the TOA is approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann's fourth power of the planetary emission temperature. However| it deviates significantly from the blackbody radiation due to various feedbacks involving water vapor and cloud cover. In addition| the reflected solar radiation is altered by the feedbacks involving sea ice| snow and cloud| thereby affecting the radiative damping of surface temperature. The analysis of ERBE reveals that the radiative damping is weakened by as much as 70% due to the overall effect of feedbacks| and is only 30% of what is expected for the blackbody with the planetary emission temperature. Similar feedback analysis is conducted for three general circulation models of the atmosphere| which was used for the study of cloud feedback in the preceding study. The sign and magnitude of the overall feedback in the three models are similar to those of the observed. However| when it is subdivided into solar and terrestrial components| they are quite different from the observation mainly due to the failure of the models to simulate individually the solar and terrestrial components of the cloud feedback. It is therefore desirable to make the similar comparison not only for the overall feedback but also for its individual components such as albedo- and cloud-feedbacks. Although the pattern of the annually-varying anomaly is quite different from that of global warming| the methodology of the comparative analysis presented here may be used for the identification of the systematic bias of the overall feedback in a model. A proposal is made for the estimation of the best guess value of climate sensitivity using the outputs from many climate models submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 6762,2005,5,4,Radiolarian faunal turnover across the Oligocene/Miocene boundary in the equatorial Pacific Ocean,The global warming trend of the latest Oligocene was interrupted by several cooling events associated with Antarctic glaciations. These cooling events affected surface water productivity and plankton assemblages. Well-preserved radiolarians were obtained from upper Oligocene to lower Miocene sediments at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 199 Sites 1218 and 1219 in the equatorial Pacific| and 110 radiolarian species were identified. Four episodes of significant radiolarian faunal changes were identified: middle late Oligocene (27.5 to 27.3 Ma)| latest Oligocene (24.4 Ma)| earliest Miocene (23.3 Ma)| and middle early Miocene (21.6 Ma). These four episodes approximately coincide with increases and decreases of biogenic silica accumulation rates and increases in 6180 values coded as "Oi" and "Mi" events. These data indicate that Antarctic glaciations were associated with change of siliceous sedimentation patterns and faunal changes in the equatorial Pacific. Radiolarian fauna was divided into three assemblages based on variations in radiolarian productivity| species richness and the composition of dominant species: a late Oligocene assemblage (27.6 to 24.4 Ma)| a transitional assemblage (24.4 to 23.3 Ma) and an early Miocene assemblage (23.3 to 21.2 Ma). The late Oligocene assemblage is characterized by relatively high productivity| low species richness and four dominant species of Tholospyris anthophora| Stichocorys subligata| Lophocyrtis nomas and Lithelius spp. The transitional assemblage represents relatively low values of productivity and species richness| and consists of three dominant species of T anthophora| S. subligata and L. nomas. The characteristics of the early Miocene assemblage are relatively low productivity| but high species richness. The two dominant species present in this assemblage are T anthophora and Cyrtocapsella tetrapera. The most significant faunal turnover of radiolarians is marked at the boundary between the transitional/early Miocene assemblages. We also reviewed changes in other microfossil assemblages in the low latitudes during the late Oligocene through early Miocene. The microfossil assemblages of major groups show sequential changes near the Oligocene/Miocene (O/M) boundary (23.8 Ma). Many extinction events and some first occurences of calcareous nannofossils and many occurrences of radiolarians are found from about 24.8 to 23.3 Ma| and first occurrences of planktic foraminifers and diatoms followed from 23.2 through 22 Ma. Hence| the ON boundary is identified as a significant level for microfossil evolutions. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 1872,2005,2,4,Rainfall exclusion in an eastern amazonian forest alters soil water movement and depth of water uptake,Deuterium-labeled water was used to study the effect of the Tapajos Throughfall Exclusion Experiment (TTEE) on soil moisture movement and on depth of water uptake by trees of Coussarea racemosa| Sclerolobium chrysophyllum| and Eschweilera pedicellata. The TTEE simulates an extended dry season in an eastern Amazonian rainforest| a plausible scenario if the El Nino phenomenon changes with climate change. The TTEE excludes 60% of the wet season throughfall from a 1-ha plot (treatment)| while the control 1-ha plot receives precipitation year-round. Mean percolation rate of the label peak in the control plot was greater than in the treatment plot during the wet season (0.75 vs. 0.07 m/mo). The rate was similar for both plots during the dry season (ca. 0. 15 m/mo)| indicative that both plots have similar topsoil structure. Interestingly| the label peak in the control plot during the dry season migrated upward an average distance of 64 cm. We show that water probably moved upward through soil pores-i.e.| it did not involve roots (hydraulic lift)-most likely because of a favorable gradient of total (matric + gravitational) potential coupled with sufficient unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. Water probably also moved upward in the treatment plot| but was not detectable; the label in this plot did not percolate below 1 m or beyond the depth of plant water uptake. During the dry season| trees in the rainfall exclusion plot| regardless of species| consistently absorbed water significantly deeper| but never below 1.5-2 m| than trees in the control plot| and therefore may represent expected root function of this understory/subcanopy tree community during extended dry periods. 6748,2005,2,4,Rainfall frequency analysis using a mixed Gamma distribution: evaluation of the global warming effect on daily rainfall,The effect of global warming (represented by general circulation model monthly rainfall predictions) on the daily rainfall distribution is investigated using a mixed Gamma distribution to estimate the change of rainfall quantiles. A mixed distribution is used to overcome the limitation of conventional frequency analysis| which uses a continuous distribution| as this is not applicable for the assessment of the effects of global warming. To summarize the results: (1) Even though the variation of daily rainfall distribution is high due to the variation of monthly rainfall amounts| the scale parameter and the wet probability of a mixed Gamma distribution are found to be closely related to the monthly rainfall amounts. On the other hand| the shape factor remains almost the same regardless of the monthly rainfall amount. (2) The rainfall quantiles estimated using the daily rainfall data from June to September were found to be the most similar to those using the annual maximum data. (3) Regardless of the increasing uncertainty as the return period becomes longer| flood risk is found to be increasing as a result of global warming. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 6852,2005,5,4,Rapid responses of high-mountain vegetation to early Holocene environmental changes in the Swiss Alps,1 The Early Holocene sediment of a lake at tree line (Gouille Rion| 2343 m a.s.l.) in the Swiss Central Alps was sampled for plant macrofossils. Thin (0.5 cm) slices| representing time intervals of c. 50 years each from 11 800 to 7800 cal. year bp| were analysed and the data compared with independent palaeoclimatic proxies to study vegetational responses to environmental change. 2 Alpine plant communities (e.g. with Salix herbacea) were established at 11 600-11 500 cal. year bp| when oxygen-isotope records showed that temperatures increased by c. 3-4 degrees C within decades. Larix decidua trees reached the site at c. 11 350 cal. year bp| probably in response to further warming by 1-2 degrees C. Forests dominated by L. decidua persisted until 9600 cal. year bp| when Pinus cembra became more important. 3 The dominance of Larix decidua for two millennia is explained by dry summer conditions| and possibly low winter temperatures| which favoured it over the late-successional Pinus cembra. Environmental conditions were a result of variations in the earth's orbit| leading to a maximum of summer and a minimum of winter solar radiation. Other heliophilous and drought-adapted species| such as Dryas octopetala and Juniperus nana| could persist in the open L. decidua forests| but were out-competed when the shade-tolerant P. cembra expanded. 4 The relative importance of Larix decidua decreased during periods of diminished solar radiation at 11 100| 10 100 and 9400 cal. year bp. Stable concentrations of L. decidua indicate that these percentage oscillations were caused by temporary increases of Pinus cembra| Dryas octopetala and Juniperus nana that can be explained by increases in moisture and/or decreases in summer temperature. 5 The final collapse of Larix decidua at 8400 cal. year bp was possibly related to abrupt climatic cooling as a consequence of a large meltwater input to the North Atlantic. Similarly| the temporary exclusion of Pinus cembra from tree line at 10 600-10 200 cal. year bp may be related to slowing down of thermohaline circulation at 10 700-10 300 cal. year bp. 6 Our results show that tree line vegetation was in dynamic equilibrium with climate| even during periods of extraordinarily rapid climatic change. They also imply that forecasted global warming may trigger rapid upslope movements of the tree line of up to 800 m within a few decades or centuries at most| probably inducing large-scale displacements of plant species as well as irrecoverable biodiversity losses. 6980,2005,3,3,Rate coefficients| for the OH+CFH(2)CH(2)OHreaction between 238 and 355 K,The rate coefficient for the reaction OH + CFH2CH2OH -> products (k(1)) between 238 and 355 K was measured using the pulsed laser photolysis-laser induced fluorescence (PLP-LIF) technique to be (5.15 +/- 0.88) x 10(-12) exp[-(330 +/- 45)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1); k(1)(298 K) = 1.70 x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The quoted uncertainties are 2 sigma (95% confidence level) and include estimated systematic errors. The present results are discussed in relation to the measured rate coefficients for the reaction of OH with other fluorinated alcohols and those calculated using recently reported structure additivity relationships for fluorinated compounds (K. Tokuhashi| H. Nagai| A. Takahashi| M. Kaise| S. Kondo| A. Sekiya| M. Takahashi| Y. Gotoh and A. Suga| J. Phys. Chem. A| 1999| 103| 2664-2672| ref. 2). Infrared absorption cross sections for CFH2CH2OH are reported and they are used to calculate the global warming potentials (GWP) for CFH2CH2OH of - 8| - 2| and - 1| respectively| for the 20| 100 and 500 year horizons. A brief discussion of the atmospheric degradation of CFH2CH2OH is provided. It is concluded that CFH2CH2OH is an acceptable substitute for CFCs in terms of its impact on Earth's climate and the composition of the atmosphere. The room temperature rate coefficient for the reaction OH + CH3CH2OH products (k(10)) was measured to be 3.26 x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| in good agreement with recent measurements from this laboratory. 1818,2005,5,4,Rates of erosion and topographic evolution of the Sierra Nevada| California| inferred from cosmogenic Al-26 and Be-10 concentrations,Concentrations of cosmogenic Al-26 and Be-10 in cave sediments and bedrock surfaces| combined with studies of landscape morphology| elucidate the topographic history of the southern Sierra Nevada over the past 5 Ma. Caves dated by Al-26/Be-10 in buried sediments reveal that river incision rates were moderate to slow between c. 5 and 3 Ma (<= 0.07 mm a(-1))| accelerated between 3 and 1.5 Ma (c. 0.3 ram a(-1))| and then have subsequently become much slower (c. 0.02 mm a(-1)). Although the onset of accelerated incision coincides in time with both|postulated Pliocene tectonism and pronounced global climate change| we argue that it primarily represents the response to a discrete tectonic event between 3 and 5 Ma. Dated cave positions reveal that| prior to 3 Ma| river canyons displayed up to 1.6 km of local relief| suggesting that Pliocene rock uplift elevated pre-existing topography. Renewed incision beginning c. 3 Ma deepened canyons by up to 400 m| creating narrow inner gorges. Tributary streams exhibit strong convexities| indicating that the transient erosional response to Pliocene uplift has not yet propagated into upland surfaces. Concentrations of Al-26 and Be-10 in bare bedrock show that upland surfaces are eroding at slow rates of c. 0.01 mm a(-1). Over the past c. 3 Ma| upland surfaces eroded slowly while adjacent rivers incised rapidly| increasing local relief. Although relief production probably drove at least modest crestal uplift| considerable pre-Pliocene relief and low spatially averaged erosion rates suggest that climatically driven rock uplift is not sufficient to explain ail uplift implied by tilted markers at the western edge of the range. Despite the recent pulse of erosion| spatially averaged erosion rates are low| and have probably acted to preserve the broad topographic form of the Sierra Nevada throughout much of the late Cenozoic. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 1804,2005,2,4,Rates of soil creep| worldwide: weak climatic controls and potential feedback,The rate of soil creep sets the tempo at which material is transferred from hill-slopes to fluvial systems over major portions of terrestrial landscapes. Hence| soil creep rates affect the rates of landscape evolution and delivery of terrigenous material to floodplains and eventually to the oceans. Herein| we compile data from all sources worldwide that arc readily available in the literature| and derive common| quantitative characteristics of soil creep from digitized soil displacement profiles that permit estimates of soil flux and comparison between diverse studies. We also search for systematic variations of creep rates with climate and explore potential feedbacks between creep rates and climate. Significant creep is found in a range of environments worldwide and is fueled by diverse physical and biological processes. The considerable inter-site variability overwhelms the dependence of creep rates on hillslope gradient and obscures| but does not conceal| the climate influence. We speculate that the general tendency for rapid creep to be associated with colder climates could exacerbate global climate change. A global rise in temperature| for example| could slow the sequestration of atmospheric CO2 as creep rates decrease by slowing two distinct pedogcnic processes: mineral weathering| which is sensitive function of processes that create and freshen mineral surfaces| and the subaerial delivery of organic carbon stored in soils to rivers and long-lived reservoirs. 6944,2005,2,3,Ratio of the Greenland to global temperature change: Comparison of observations and climate modeling results,Temperature changes over Greenland are of special interest due to a possible melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and resulting sea level rise. General Circulation Models ( GCMs) predict that the temperature changes in Greenland should proceed at a faster rate than the global temperature change. Until now there has been no confirmation that Greenland's long- term temperature changes are related to the global warming and that they proceed faster than the global temperature change. Using double correlations between the Greenland temperature records| North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO) index and global temperature change we find a region of Greenland that is not affected by the NAO. Using this region as an indicator of Greenland's temperature change that is related to global warming| we find that the ratio of the Greenland to global temperature change due to global warming is 2.2 in broad agreement with GCM predictions. 6871,2005,2,4,Recent distribution and accumulation of organic carbon on the continental margin west off Spitsbergen,The study compiles the controlling factors for organic matter sedimentation patterns from a suite of organogeochemical parameters in surface sediments off Spitsbergen and direct seabed observations using a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV). In addition we assess its storage rates as well as the potential of carbon sinks on the northwestern margin of the Barents Sea with short sediment cores from a selected fjord environment (Storfjord). While sedimentation in the fjords is mainly controlled by river/meltwater discharge and coastal erosion by sea ice/glaciers resulting in high supply of terrigenous organic matter| Atlantic water inflow| and thus enhanced marine organic matter supply| characterizes the environment on the outer shelf and slope. Local deviations from this pattern| particularly on the shelf| are due to erosion and out washing of fine-grained material by bottom currents. Spots dominated by marine productivity close to the island have been found at the outer Isfjord and west off Prins Karls Forland as well as off the Kongsfjord/Krossfjord area and probably reflect local upwelling of nutrient-rich Atlantic water-derived water masses. Accumulation rates of marine organic carbon as well as reconstructed primary productivities decreased since the middle of the last century. Negative correlation of the Isfjord temperature record with reconstructed productivities in the Storfjord could be explained by a reduced annual duration of the marginal ice zone in the area due to global warming. Extremely high accumulation rates of marine organic carbon between 5.4 and 17.2 g m(-2) yr(-1) mark the Storfjord area| and probably high-latitude fjord environments in general| as a sink for carbon dioxide. 6838,2005,2,4,Recent invasion of the tropical Atlantic by an Indo-Pacific coral reef fish,The last tropical connection between Atlantic and Indian-Pacific habitats closed c. 2 million years ago (Ma)| with the onset of cold-water upwelling off southwestern Africa. Yet comparative morphology indicates more recent connections in several taxa| including reefassociated gobies (genus Gnatholepis). Coalescence and phylogenetic analyses of mtDNA cytochrome b sequences demonstrate that Gnatholepis invaded the Atlantic during an interglacial period similar to 145 000 years ago (d = 0.0054)| colonizing from the Indian Ocean to the western Atlantic| and subsequently to the central (similar to 100 000 years ago) and eastern Atlantic (similar to 30 000 years ago). Census data show a contemporary range expansion in the northeastern Atlantic linked to global warming. 6956,2005,3,3,Recycling revisited - life cycle comparisons of global warming impact and total energy use of waste management strategies,Recycling of waste materials has been analysed from a life cycle perspective in a number of studies over the past 10-15 years. Publications comparing the global warming impact and total energy use of recycling versus incineration and landfilling were reviewed in order to find out to what extent they agree or contradict each other| and whether there are generally applicable conclusions to be drawn when certain key factors are considered. Four key factors with a significant influence on the ranking between recycling| incineration| and landfilling were identified. Producing materials from recycled resources is often| but not always| less energy intensive and causes less global warming impact than from virgin resources. For non-renewable materials the savings are of such a magnitude| that apparently the only really crucial factor is what material is replaced. For paper products| however| the savings of recycling are much smaller. The ranking between recycling and incineration of paper is sensitive to for instance paper quality| energy source avoided by incineration| and energy source at the mill. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.v. All rights reserved. 7028,2005,2,4,Reducing vulnerability of agriculture and forestry to climate variability and change: Workshop summary and recommendations,The International Workshop on Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Climate Change held in Ljubljana| Solvenia| from 7 to 9 October 2002 addressed a range of important issues relating to climate variability| climate change| agriculture| and forestry including the state of agriculture and forestry and agrometeological information| and potential adaptation strategies for agriculture and forestry to changing climate conditions and other pressures. There is evidence that global warming over the last millennium has already resulted in increased global average annual temperature and changes in rainfall| with the 1990s being likely the warmest decade in the Northern Hemisphere at least. During the past century| changes in temperature patterns have| for example| had a direct impact on the number of frost days and the length of growing seasons with significant implications for agriculture and forestry. Land cover changes| changes in global ocean circulation and sea surface temperature patterns| and changes in the composition of the global atmosphere are leading to changes in rainfall. These changes may be more pronounced in the tropics. For example| crop varieties grown in the Sahel may not be able to withstand the projected warming trends and will certainly be at risk due to projected lower amounts of rainfall as well. Seasonal to interannual climate forecasts will definitely improve in the future with a better understanding of dynamic relationships. However| the main issue at present is how to make better use of the existing information and dispersion of knowledge to the farm level. Direct participation by the farming communities in pilot projects on agrometeorological services will be essential to determine the actual value of forecasts and to better identify the specific user needs. Old (visits| extension radio) and new (internet) communication techniques| when adapted to local applications| may assist in the dissemination of useful information to the farmers and decision makers. Some farming systems with an inherent resilience may adapt more readily to climate pressures| making long-term adjustments to varying and changing conditions. Other systems will need interventions for adaptation that should be more strongly supported by agrometeorological services for agricultural producers. This applies| among others| to systems where pests and diseases play an important role. Scientists have to guide policy makers in fostering an environment in which adaptation strategies can be effected. There is a clear need for integrating preparedness for climate variability and climate change. In developed countries| a trend of higher yields| but with greater annual fluctuations and changes in cropping patterns and crop calendars can be expected with changing climate scenarios. Shifts in projected cropping patterns can be disruptive to rural societies in general. However| developed countries have the technology to adapt more readily to the projected climate changes. In many developing countries| the present conditions of agriculture and forestry are already marginal| due to degradation of natural resources| the use of inappropriate technologies and other stresses. For these reasons| the ability to adapt will be more difficult in the tropics and subtropics and in countries in transition. Food security will remain a problem in many developing countries. Nevertheless| there are many examples of traditional knowledge| indigenous technologies and local innovations that can be used effectively as a foundation for improved frming systems. Before developing adaptation strategies| it is essential to learn from the actual difficulties faced by farmers to cope with risk management at the farm level. Agrometeorologists must play an important role in assisting farmers with the development of feasible strategies to adapt to climate variability and climate change. Agrometeorologists should also advise national policy makers on the urgent need to cope with the vulnerabilities of agriculture and forestry to climate variability and climate change. The workshop recommendations were largely limited to adaptation. Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate variability and climate change is of high priority for nearly all countries| but developing countries are particularly vulnerable. Effective measures to cope with vulnerability and adaptation need to be developed at all levels. Capacity building must be integrated into adaptation measures for sustainable agricultural development strategies. Consequently| nations must develop strategies that effectively focus on specific regional issues to promote sustainable development. 6870,2005,2,3,Reduction in tropical rainfall diurnal variation by global warming simulated by a 20-km mesh climate model,A time-slice global warming experiment was performed with a very high-resolution (20-km mesh) atmospheric general circulation model. Due to increased horizontal resolution| land-sea distribution over the Indonesian Maritime Continent is well represented. A clear contrast in precipitation change at the end of the twenty-first century is found over Borneo Island and the Java Sea: over the ocean morning precipitation decreases and evening precipitation increases| while over the island morning precipitation increases| resulting in reduced amplitude of rainfall diurnal variation over both land and ocean. Weakened land-sea breeze circulation by global warming due to larger nighttime temperature increases over land than during the day contributes to this decreased rainfall diurnal variation. 1790,2005,2,4,Refugial forests of the southern Appalachians: photosynthesis and survival in current-year Abies fraseri seedlings,Fraser fir (Abies fraseri (Pursh) Poiret) is an endemic| high-elevation conifer confined to six relict mountain-top communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains| USA. High adult mortality has occurred over the past 50 years| possibly the result of an introduced insect (Adelges piceae Ratzeburg)| air pollution| or both. Knowledge of the mechanisms of and limitations to seedling establishment may allow reestablisment and perpetuation of this unique community type| notwithstanding global climate change. We monitored seedling emergence and mortality in relation to photosynthetic performance and water relations in microsites differing in canopy openness (sunlight exposure) over the summer of 2004. Abundance of cotyledonous seedlings in early summer was 2.3 times greater (849 versus 366 seedlings m(-2)) in microsites with lower sky exposure (greater canopy closure) than in microsites with greater sky exposure (greater canopy openness). In contrast| late-season abundance and survival were greater in areas beneath more open canopies than in areas beneath less open canopies (3.3 times and 11.7 times greater| respectively). However| newly emerged seedling survival in a completely open site (no overhead canopy) was zero| despite an initial density of 124 seedlings m(-2). Seedling water status was similar in open- and closed-canopy sites (-0.52 and -0.74 MPa| respectively). Photosynthetic carbon gain was higher in newly emerged seedlings at open canopy than at closed canopy sites| especially during early morning. Based on photosynthetic light response curves and measured sunlight regimes| seedlings in open canopy sites were estimated to assimilate 3.3-4.5 times more carbon than seedlings at closed sites. Reductions in carbon gain of closed-site seedlings| primarily a result of limited sunlight| corresponded to substantial increases in seedling mortality (98 versus 79% in open canopy sites). Thus| sunlight exposure| which reflects overstory canopy structure| appears to be an important factor influencing newly emerged seedling survival and distribution. 6848,2005,4,4,Regional cooling in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean due to global warming,This study investigates processes leading to regional cooling in global warming experiments conducted with the NCAR fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). While several previous studies have investigated regional cooling in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean| the mechanism leading to this response remains unclear. We find that changes in ocean circulation offer the key to understanding the regional cooling. The regional cooling in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean| especially the area north of the Ross Sea| results mainly through an advective mechanism. The ocean topography contributes strongly to the change of ocean circulation through changes in bottom vortex stretching associated with a decrease in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport. 7067,2005,2,3,Regional variability in the terrestrial carbon-cycle response to global warming in the 21st century: Simulation analysis with AOGCM-based climate projections,Regional variability in the carbon-cycle response of terrestrial ecosystems to global warming was simulated with a spatially explicit| process-based model (Sim-CYCLE)| and analyzed for 22 regions worldwide. The terrestrial net flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) during the period 2001-2099| was globally simulated on the basis of greenhouse gas emission scenarios (IPCC-SRES)| and climate projections by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Most terrestrial ecosystems acted as net carbon sinks but with different magnitudes among the experiments (globally| 24 to 286 Pg C). Substantial inter-regional variability was found in terrestrial carbon-cycle response| because of differences in biome distributions and climate-change regimes. Moreover| among the experiments using the same CO2 scenario| but different AOGCM climate projections| inconsistent results were obtained in the Amazon basin| Africa| Australia| and northern Asia| indicating the need for further research. 6935,2005,2,4,Regional| vertical and seasonal distribution of phytoplankton and photosynthetic pigments in Lake Baikal,A 3-year phytoplankton study was carried out in Lake Baikal (Siberia) as part of the CONTINENT project and in conjunction with a 60-year long monitoring programme by the Irkutsk State University. A combination of microscopy and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) pigment analysis was used. All over the lake| the dominant functional group (by biovolume) was the vernal diatom blooms| due to the dominance of endemic Cyclotella species. Chlorophyll a (Chl a) was significantly highest at the Selenga and Barguzin inflows (2.39 +/- 0.34 and 2.49 +/- 0.18 nmol L-1| mean +/- 95% CI| respectively) and higher in the South than in the North (1.43 +/- 0.26 and 0.96 +/- 0.13 nmol L-1). This variation of Chl a reflected changes in the phytoplankton composition. Diatoms and Chrysophyceae were the major contributors to the total Chl a except in the South (Chlorophyceae) and Selenga Delta (cyanobacterial picoplankton). There were also indications of species composition changes due to enhanced P-loading from the Selenga River. However| canonical analyses indicated that temperature and stratification were the major driving forces for regional distribution patterns and seasonal succession. It seems likely that further global warming will cause a shift in the species and group composition towards small cells at the expense of the large endemic diatom flora. 1875,2005,3,3,Relay cropping for improved air and water quality,Using plants to extract excess nitrate from soil is important in protecting against eutrophication of standing water| hypoxic conditions in lakes and oceans| or elevated nitrate concentrations in domestic water supplies. Global climate change issues have raised new concerns about nitrogen (N) management as it relates to crop production even though there may not be an immediate threat to water quality. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are frequently considered the primary cause of global climate change| but under anaerobic conditions| animals can contribute by expelling methane (CH4) as do soil microbes. In terms of the potential for global climate change| CH4 is similar to 25 times more harmful than CO2. This differential effect is minuscule compared to when nitrous oxide (N2O) is released into the atmosphere because it is similar to 300 times more harmful than CO2. N2O losses from soil have been positively correlated with residual N (nitrate| NO3) concentrations in soil. It stands to reason that phytoremediation via nitrate scavenger crops is one approach to help protect air quality| as well as soil and water quality. Winter wheat was inserted into a seed corn/soybean rotation to utilize soil nitrate and thereby reduce the potential for nitrate leaching and N2O emissions. The net effect of the 2001-2003 relay cropping sequence was to produce three crops in two years| scavenge 130 kg N/ha from the root zone| produce an extra 2 Mg residue/ha| and increase producer profitability by similar to$ 250/ha. 6975,2005,2,3,Remobilization of southern African desert dune systems by twenty-first century global warming,Although desert dunes cover 5 per cent of the global land surface and 30 per cent of Africa| the potential impacts of twenty-first century global warming on desert dune systems are not well understood(1). The inactive Sahel and southern African dune systems| which developed in multiple arid phases since the last interglacial period(2)| are used today by pastoral and agricultural systems(3|4) that could be disrupted if climate change alters twenty-first century dune dynamics. Empirical data and model simulations have established that the interplay between dune surface erodibility ( determined by vegetation cover and moisture availability) and atmospheric erosivity ( determined by wind energy) is critical for dunefield dynamics(5). This relationship between erodibility and erosivity is susceptible to climate-change impacts. Here we use simulations with three global climate models and a range of emission scenarios to assess the potential future activity of three Kalahari dunefields. We determine monthly values of dune activity by modifying and improving an established dune mobility index(6) so that it can account for global climate model data outputs. We find that| regardless of the emission scenario used| significantly enhanced dune activity is simulated in the southern dunefield by 2039| and in the eastern and northern dunefields by 2069. By 2099 all dunefields are highly dynamic| from northern South Africa to Angola and Zambia. Our results suggest that dunefields are likely to be reactivated ( the sand will become significantly exposed and move) as a consequence of twenty-first century climate warming. 7098,2005,3,3,Removal of carbon dioxide by a spray dryer,With the global warming due to greenhouse effects becoming serious| many efforts are carried out to decrease the emissions Of CO2 from the combustion of carbonaceous materials. In Taiwan| there are 19 large-scale municipal solid waste incinerators running and their total emission Of CO2 is about 16 950 kton y(-1). Spray dryer is the most prevailing air pollution control devise for removing acid gas in waste incineration; however| the performance of spray dryer on the removal Of CO2 is seldom studied. This study employs a laboratory-scale spray dryer to investigate the removal efficiency Of CO2 under different operating conditions. The evaluated parameters include different absorbents mixed with Ca(OH)(2)| operating temperature| the concentration of absorbent| and the inlet concentration Of CO2. Experimental results show that the best removal efficiency of CO2 by a spray dryer is 48% as the absorbent is 10%NaOH + 5%Ca(OH)2 and the operating temperature is 150 degrees C. Comparing this result with previous study shows that the performance of spray dryer is better than traditional NaOH wet scrubber. For NaOH + Ca(OH)2 spray dryer| the removal efficiency Of CO2 is decreased with the inlet concentration Of CO2 increased and the optimum operating temperature is 150 degrees C. Except NaOH + Ca(OH)(2)| absorbents DEA + Ca(OH)(2)| TEA + Ca(OH)(2)| and single Ca(OH)(2) are not effective in removing CO2 by a spray dryer. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7073,2005,3,3,Renewable biomethane from land and ocean energy crops and organic wastes,Production of methane via anaerobic digestion of energy crops and organic wastes would benefit society by providing a clean fuel from renewable feedstocks. This could replace fossil fuel-derived energy and reduce its environmental impacts| including global warming and acid rain. Although biomass energy is more costly than fossil fuel-derived energy| trends to limit carbon dioxide and other emissions through regulations| carbon taxes| and subsidies of biomass energy would make it cost competitive. Methane derived from anaerobic digestion is competitive in efficiencies and costs with other biomass energy forms including heat| synthesis gases| and ethanol. The objective of this paper is to review the results and conclusions of research on biomass energy conducted under the sponsorship of the gas industry with periodic co-funding from other agencies. The scope of this program was to determine the technical and economic feasibility of production of substitute natural gas (SNG) from marine and terrestrial biomass and organic wastes using anaerobic digestion as a conversion process. This work began in 1968 and continued until about 1990| ending as a result of low energy prices in the U.S. and reduced emphasis on renewable energy. For each of these feedstock categories| growth or collection (in the case of wastes)| harvesting| conversion by anaerobic digestion| and systems and economic analysis were addressed. More recently the potential use of anaerobic digestion for stabilization and recovery of nutrients from solid wastes during space missions was studied with funding from NASA. The application of this process for that function as well as treatment of wastewater and waste gases generated during space missions is addressed. 7003,2005,3,4,Research on better use of wood for sustainable development: Quantitative evaluation of good tactile warmth of wood,Wood is a prospective material against the problems of mineral resource shortage and global warming from the viewpoint of sustainable development. The continuous cycle of felling| planting and growing of trees is essential prerequisite for sustainability. The engineering evaluation of advantages of wood can increase its use more widely as a substitute for other industrial materials and save the finite mineral resources. The increase of wood use can support the continuous cycle for the sustainable forestry as an industry. This paper treats good tactile warmth of wood as one of its advantages. The relationship between contact surface temperature and thermal effusivity is derived from the theoretical analysis of governing heat transfer phenomenon on tactile warmth. Some knowledge on tactile warmth of wood is reviewed with these physical properties. The sensory tactile warmth of wood has a high and positive linear correlation with the logarithm of the contact surface temperature. The materials with lower thermal effusivity feel warmer than the ones with higher thermal effusivity. The relationship between contact surface temperature and thermal effusivity explains rationally why each wood has a large difference of tactile warmth in spite of their small difference of material properties. It also explains the reason why wood has good tactile warmth regardless of seasons against metals| which feel too hot in summer and too cold in winter to touch. The contact surface temperature and the thermal effusivity are proposed as engineering measures to evaluate the tactile warmth of wood and other materials. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6947,2005,4,3,Resolution of the uncertainties in the radiative forcing of HFC-134a,HCF-134a (CF3CH2F) is the most rapidly growing hydrofluorocarbon in terms of atmospheric abundance. It is currently used in a large number of household refrigerators and air-conditioning systems and its concentration in the atmosphere is forecast to increase substantially over the next 50-100 years. Previous estimates of its radiative forcing per unit concentration have differed significantly similar to25%. This paper uses a two-step approach to resolve this discrepancy. In the first step six independent absorption cross section datasets are analysed. We find that| for the integrated cross section in the spectral bands that contribute most to the radiative forcing| the differences between the various datasets are typically smaller than 5% and that the dependence on pressure and temperature is not significant. A "recommended" HFC-134a infrared absorption spectrum was obtained based on the average band intensities of the strongest bands. In the second step| the "recommended" HFC-134a spectrum was used in six different radiative transfer models to calculate the HFC-134a radiative forcing efficiency. The clear-sky instantaneous radiative forcing| using a single global and annual mean profile| differed by 8%| between the 6 models| and the latitudinally-resolved adjusted cloudy sky radiative forcing estimates differed by a similar amount. We calculate that the radiative forcing efficiency of HFC-134a is 0.16 +/- 0.02 Wm(-2)ppbv(-1). (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7176,2005,2,4,Resource allocation pattern under simulated environmental change and seedling establishment of alpine dwarf shrubs in a mid-latitude mountain,SUZUKI S. & KUDO G. 2005. Resource allocation pattern under simulated environmental change and seedling establishment of alpine dwarf shrubs in a mid-latitude mountain. - Phyton (Horn| Austria) 45 (4): (409)-(414). We set up 11 open-top chambers (OTCs) on a fell-field (1680 in a.s.l.) in the Taisetsu Mountains| northern Japan to assess responses to warming of circumpolar plants growing around their southern distribution margins. The OTCs increased the daily mean air-temperature by 1.7 degrees C throughout the growing season. For five alpine species - two deciduous shrubs: Arctous alpinus and Vaccinium uliginosum and three evergreen shrubs: Ledum palustre subsp. decumbens| Vaccinium vitis-idaea| and Empetrum nigrum var. japonicum - effects of artificial warming on reproductive components were investigated during five (for flower production) or four (for fruit production) years. In addition| seedling establishments were compared among the three vegetation types and bare ground. Flower production in the OTCs was enhanced significantly in both deciduous species over that of control plots. In contrast| comparison to the control plots showed a significant decrease in flower production in the OTCs in two of the evergreen species. Fruit production of V. uliginosum and L. palustre was enhanced in the OTCs relative to the control plots. Both deciduous species allocated their resources to reproduction rather than to vegetative growth. Seedling establishment was very rare and was restricted on bare ground in this study site. We concluded that the difficulty of seedling establishment gives advantage to some species| which show active vegetative growth under global warming| to develop their vegetation cover. 6847,2005,2,4,Response of diatoms distribution to global warming and potential implications: A global model study,Using a global model of ocean biogeochemistry coupled to a climate model| we explore the effect of climate change on the distribution of diatoms| a key phytoplankton functional group. Our model results suggest that climate change leads to more nutrient-depleted conditions in the surface ocean and that it favors small phytoplankton at the expense of diatoms. At 4xCO(2)| diatoms relative abundance is reduced by more than 10% at the global scale and by up to 60% in the North Atlantic and in the subantarctic Pacific. This simulated change in the ecosystem structure impacts oceanic carbon uptake by reducing the efficiency of the biological pump| thus contributing to the positive feedback between climate change and the ocean carbon cycle. However| our model simulations do not identify this biological mechanism as a first-order process in the response of ocean carbon uptake to climate change. 1886,2005,2,4,Responses of a beaded Arctic stream to short-term N and P fertilisation,1. Oligotrophic Arctic streams are likely to be sensitive to changes in hydrology and nutrient inputs predicted to occur as a consequence of future climate and land use change. To investigate the potential consequences of nutrient enrichment for low-order Arctic streams| we added ammonium-N and phosphorous to a second-order beaded| tundra stream on Alaska's north slope. We measured responses in nutrient chemistry| chlorophyll a standing crop| and in the breakdown and macroinvertebrate colonisation of leaf litter over a 38-day summer period. 2. During the addition| nutrient concentrations immediately downstream of the dripper averaged 6.4 mum ammonium-N and 0.45 muM soluble reactive P. Concentrations upstream of the dripper averaged 0.54 muM ammonium-N and 0.03 muM soluble reactive P. Uptake of both nutrients was rapid. Concentrations were reduced on average to 28 % (ammonium-N) and 15 % (inorganic P) of maximum values within 1500 m. Standing crops of chlorophyll a on standardised samplers were significantly higher by the end of the experiment. Breakdown rates of senescent willow (Salix sp.) and sedge (Carex sp.) litter and associated fungal biomass were also significantly increased by nutrient addition. 3. Fertilisation resulted in four- to sevenfold higher macroinvertebrate abundance and two-to fourfold higher macroinvertebrate biomass in litter bags| as well as an increase in late-summer body mass of larval Nemoura stoneflies. 4. Our results are consistent with those of similar studies of larger streams in the high-Arctic region. Based on our short-term experiment| increased inputs of nutrients into these ecosystems| whether caused by climate change or more local disturbance| are likely to have profound ecological consequences. Longer-term effects of enrichment| and their interaction with other components of future change in climate or land use| are more difficult to assess. 1837,2005,2,4,Responses of deciduous forest trees to severe drought in Central Europe,In 2003| Central Europe experienced the warmest summer on record combined with unusually low precipitation. We studied plant water relations and phenology in a 100-year-old mixed deciduous forest on a slope (no ground water table) near Basel using the Swiss Canopy Crane (SCC). The drought lasted from early June to mid September. We studied five deciduous tree species; half of the individuals were exposed to elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) (530 ppm) using a free-air| atmospheric CO2-enrichment system. In late July| after the first eight weeks of drought| mean predawn leaf water potential about 30 m above ground was -0.9 MPa across all trees| dropping to a mean of -1.5 MPa in mid-August when the top 1 m of the soil profile had no plant accessible moisture. Mean stomatal conductance and rates of maximum net photosynthesis decreased considerably in mid-August across all species. However| daily peak values of sap flow remained surprisingly constant over the whole period in Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.| and decreased to only about half of the early summer maxima in Fagus sylvatica L. and Carpinus betulus L. (stomatal down-regulation of flux). Although we detected no differences in most parameters between CO2-treated and control trees| predawn leaf water potential tended to be less negative in trees exposed to elevated [CO2]. Leaf longevity was greater in 2003 compared with the previous years| but the seasonal increase in stem basal area reached only about 75% of that in previous years. Our data suggest that the investigated tree species| particularly Q. petraea| did not experience severe water stress. However| an increased frequency of such exceptionally dry summers may have a more serious impact than a single event and would give Q. petraea a competitive advantage in the long run. 6942,2005,2,3,Responses of the Kuroshio and the Kuroshio Extension to global warming in a high-resolution climate model,Using a high-resolution atmosphere - ocean coupled climate model| responses of the Kuroshio and the Kuroshio Extension (KE) to global warming are investigated. In a climate change experiment with atmospheric CO2 concentration ideally increased by 1% year(-1)| the current velocity of the Kuroshio and KE increases| while the latitude of the Kuroshio separation to the east of Japan does not change significantly. The increase of the current velocity is up to 0.3 m s(-1) at 150 degrees E. This acceleration of the Kuroshio and KE is due to changes in wind stress over the North Pacific and consequent spin-up of the Kuroshio recirculation gyre. The acceleration of the currents may affect sea level along the southern coast of Japan and northward heat transport under global warming. 7000,2005,2,4,Responses to predicted global warming in Pieris rapae L. (Lepidoptera): Consequences of nocturnal versus diurnal temperature change on fitness components,Global warming is expected to increase nocturnal environmental temperatures. We determined bow elevated nocturnal versus diurnal temperatures alter fitness components in the imported cabbageworm (Pieris rapae L.). Full-sib families of P. rapae caterpillars were split into control| increased nocturnal| and increased diurnal temperature treatments. We found significant variation among families for relative growth rate| development rate| and pupal mass. Some families had a positive cot-relation between pupal mass and development rate| whereas others had a negative correlation. On average| we found a faster development rate caused by the nocturnal treatment and a smaller pupal mass caused by the nocturnal and diurnal temperature treatments. We found no significant effect of the temperature treatments on relative growth rate. An exponential growth model suggests that| despite the decreased pupal mass associated with the increased nocturnal temperature regimen| the faster development rate would cause the nocturnal population to multiply more quickly than the control or diurnal populations. 6834,2005,2,3,Rethinking tropical ocean response to global warming: The enhanced equatorial warming,The response of tropical Pacific SST to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is reexamined with a new focus on the latitudinal SST gradient. Available evidence| mainly from climate models| suggests that an important tropical SST fingerprint to global warming is an enhanced equatorial warming relative to the subtropics. This enhanced equatorial warming provides a fingerprint of SST response more robust than the traditionally studied El Nino - like response| which is characterized by the zonal SST gradient. Most importantly| the mechanism of the enhanced equatorial warming differs fundamentally from the El Nino - like response; the former is associated with surface latent heat flux| shortwave cloud forcing| and surface ocean mixing| while the latter is associated with equatorial ocean upwelling and wind-upwelling dynamic ocean atmosphere feedback. 1835,2005,2,4,Risk in irrigation water supply and the effects on food production,This paper examines irrigation water supply deficit and associated risk indicators due to random climate events and potential effects on irrigated food production during the period 1996 to 2025 for seven river basins in the USA| China| and India. An integrated water and food model with global scope is applied for the analysis. The global climate regime during 1961 to 1990 is used to generate 30 climatic scenarios for the time period 1996 to 2025| and these scenarios are applied to the model in order to characterize the randomness of precipitation| runoff| and evapotranspiration| which affects both irrigation water supply and demand. The risk with random climate events is represented by reliability| variability| and vulnerability from different perspectives. Regarding irrigation water supply| Colorado will bear an increasingly unstable situation although the average water supply relative to the demand will maintain at a relatively high level; selected basins in China and India indicate that significantly lower levels of reliability and more deleterious affects from drought can be expected| but under a less variable condition due to assumed water storage increase. From 1996 to 2025| the effects of water deficits on irrigated food production are characterized with a nonlinear phenomenon and food production loss will be more sensitive to irrigation water supply deficit in the future. Future work following this paper needs to consider the impact of global climate change and the water quality of the irrigation return flow and result verification by local studies. 7234,2005,3,4,Sail-sail and sail-hull interaction effects of hybrid-sail assisted bulk carrier,In a previously reported study. wind tunnel experiments were undertaken to investigate the aerodynamic characteristics of hybrid-sails in isolation. Such sails are seen as providing a worthwhile reduction in the delivered power to the propeller and hence the engine generated thrust| with a corresponding reduction in the CO2 production of diesel engine exhaust. In this paper| wind tunnel testing is used to investigate sail-sail interaction effects for two sets of four identical hybrid-sails| and the sail-hull interaction effects for the same two sets of four identical sails in the presence of a bulk carrier hullform. The analysis presented suggests that to build a sail-assisted ship requires an appreciation of the sail-sail and sail-hull interaction effects. 6998,2005,3,4,SALSA: A simulation tool to assess ecological sustainability of agricultural production,In order to assess the ecological sustainability of agricultural production systems| there is a need for effective tools. We describe an environmental systems analysis tool called SALSA (Systems Analysis for Sustainable Agriculture). It consists of substance/material flow models in which the simulation results are interpreted with lifecycle assessment methodology. The application of SALSA is demonstrated in a case study in which three different ways of producing pigs are compared with respect to energy input and the environmental impacts of global warming| eutrophication| and acidification. The scenario that combined a low-protein diet without soy meal with an improved manure-management technique with low nitrogen losses was the best for all impact categories studied. The strength of the SALSA models was their capacity to capture consequences of management options that had an influence on several processes on a farm| which enabled the type of complex studies we describe. 1774,2005,2,4,Salt lakes in Australia: present problems and prognosis for the future,Australia is a land of salt lakes and despite low human population density| many lakes are adversely impacted by a range of factors. Secondary salinisation is the most pernicious force degrading lakes| especially in south-west Western Australia where up to 30% of the landscape is predicted to be affected. Mining also impinges on many salt lakes in this state| mainly through the dewatering of saline groundwater. Exploitation of groundwater for irrigation caused some lakes in Victoria| Australia| to dry| especially the significant Red Rock Complex. Global climate change will result in new water balances in endorheic lakes| with most having less water| particularly the seasonal lakes of southern Australia. This has already happened in Lake Corangamite| Victoria| but the prime reason is diversion of inflowing floodwater. Consequently| the lake has retreated and become salinised compromising its status as a Ramsar site. Various other lakes suffer from enhanced sedimentation| have introduced biota or their catchments are being disturbed to their detriment. Enlightened management should be able to maintain some important lakes in an acceptable condition| but| for most others| the future is bleak. 7053,2005,2,4,Scaling up from shifting-gap mosaic to geographic distribution in the modeling of forest dynamics,Shifting-gap mosaic is incorporated into the dynamic model of size-structured forests along geographic gradients. In the model named SAL (size-age-location)| a forest at a geographic location has a patch-age structure| which approximates the shifting-gap mosaic| and a tree-size structure in each patch of the forest. Growth and recruitment occur in each patch and are regulated by patch-scale crowding in terms of upper basal area. Seed production depends on the basal area density of mother trees at the forest scale. Seeds are dispersed to neighboring locations of the geographic landscape. After a century-long "warming" treatment| a resident forest zone prevented| over several millennia| an invading forest zone from achieving a steady-state range of geographic distribution. Introducing the gap mosaic into the model did not make substantial changes in the response of latitudinal forest zones to the warming treatment| but only moderately accelerated the migration speed of invader species. Temporal fluctuation in seed production without interspecific synchronization| or the lottery effect| did not facilitate the migration of invader species at all. 6851,2005,2,4,Scenario planning: A tool to manage future water utility uncertainty,This article| the fourth in a six-part series| takes a timely look at scenario planning. This powerful tool can be used by strategic planners to frame the future and is useful in guiding representatives of the public water supply community when planning for future uncertainty. This article presents five scenarios that were discussed at a 2002 AWWA Research Foundation workshop in which participants evaluated societal| business| and utility trends and used scenario planning to craft a water utility strategy for future success. A complete scenario regarding global warming is presented in the article| along with four condensed scenarios dealing with how utilities will assimilate developing technology| the effects of changes in the population on demands exerted on utilities| the development of creative partnering and regionalization| and water utility response to catastrophic events.-LH. 7145,2005,2,4,Seasonal cycle shifts in hydroclimatology over the western United States,Analyses of streamflow| snow mass temperature and precipitation in snowmelt-dominated river basins in the western United States indicate an advance in the timing of peak spring season flows over the past 50 years. Warm temperature spells in spring have occurred much earlier in recent years| which explains in part the trend in the timing of the spring peak flow. In addition| a decrease in snow water equivalent and a general increase in winter precipitation are evident for many stations in the western United States. It appears that in recent decades more of the precipitation is coming as rain rather than snow. The trends are strongest at lower elevations and in the Pacific Northwest region| where winter temperatures are closer to the melting point; it appears that in this region in particular| modest shifts in temperature are capable of forcing| large shifts in basin hydrologic response. It is speculated that these trends bould be potentially a manifestation of the general global warming| trend in recent decades and also due to enhanced ENSO activity. The observed trends in hydroclimatology over the western United States can have significant impacts on water resources planning and management. 7018,2005,2,4,Seasonal variation in the regional structure of warming across China in the past half century,A dataset of 160 National Meteorological Observatory stations with long-term monthly temperature data for China was analyzed to assess the seasonal variation of the spatial temperature structure across China in the past half century. Different warming trends were found for the different seasons: the extent of warming is stronger and more widespread in winter than in summer. Warming is more pronounced at higher latitude| particularly in winter. The possible mechanisms of seasonal variation in climate warming include effects of greenhouse gases| increased cloud cover due to increases in sulfate aerosols| and local processes such as changes in land use and urban heat island effects. 7178,2005,3,4,Seasonal variation of carbon dioxide and methane fluxes at single cropping paddy fields in central and western Japan,Based on the results of long-term flux measurement at two paddy flux sites| Mase (MSE) in central Japan and Hachihama (HCH) in western Japan| we present seasonal variation of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) exchanges between single rice cropping paddy fields and the atmosphere in 2003. CO2 flux was measured by the eddy covariance method at the two sites| while CH4 flux was measured at MSE site by the modified aerodynamic method. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) in the 2003 growing period showed a distinct seasonal variation with rice growth| and reached the maximum daily CO2 uptake of 9.2-9.5 g C m(-2) d(-1) in the middle growing period. The total NEE in the growing period at HCH site was more negative than that at MSE site by 84 g C m(-2)| 60% of which was caused by larger gross primary production (GPP) and the remainder by smaller ecosystem respiration (RE) at HCH site. The inter-site difference in GPP was principally caused by larger amount of incident photosynthetically active radiation at HCH site| which resulted from longer cultivation period at HCH site and shorter sunshine duration at MSE site in the mid-growing period. The inter-site difference in RE was attributed to that the rice growth at HCH site was out of phase with the seasonal variation of temperature. By including NEE in the non-growing period| we estimated the annual NEE at MSE site at a range between -192 and -284 g C m(-2). CH4 emission flux at MSE site increased with days after flooding| and showed a flush of CH4 after the pre-harvest drainage. The amount of CH4 emission during the 2003 growing period was 9.3 g C m(-2)| which was negligible in the carbon budget of the paddy field when compared with the annual NEE| but it had significant influence on the greenhouse gas budget because of the large global warming potential of CH4. 6822,2005,2,4,Seawater temperature| Gambierdiscus spp. variability and incidence of ciguatera poisoning in French Polynesia,In the context of global warming and climate change| ciguatera disease is put forward as an indicator of environmental disturbance. However| to validate this indicator| some unknown parameters such as the delay between environmental perturbation and outbreaks of ciguatera need to be investigated. The main goal of this study was to investigate the temporal link between the growth of Gambierdiscus spp.| and one of its influencing factors and the declared cases of ciguatera disease in humans. Algal cell density and seawater temperature (SWT) were recorded monthly from February 1993 to December 2001 on the Atimaono barrier reef of Tahiti Island. Reports of ciguatera cases were obtained from three community health clinics near the study sites. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARlMA) shows: (1) SWT were positively associated with Gainbierdiscus spp. growth at a lagtime of 13 and 17 months (p < 0.001); (2) Gambierdiscus spp. growth measured at a given time is related to a peak number of cases of ciguatera recorded 3 months after peak densities of this dinoflagellate (p < 0.001). These results allow the construction of a predictive model of the temporal link between ciguatera disease in humans and its etiologic agent: Gambierdiscus spp. This model constructed by using 1993-1999 data| then validated by 2000-2001 data| demonstrates an appreciable ability to predict changes in the incidence of ciguatera disease following algae blooms. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved. 6985,2005,5,3,Sedimentary trace element constraints on the role of North Atlantic Igneous Province volcanism in late Paleocene-early Eocene environmental change,A growing body of geologic evidence suggests that emplacement of the North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP) played a major role in global warming during the early Paleogene as well as in the transient Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) event. A similar to 5 million year record of major and trace element abundances spanning 56 to 51 Ma at Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 401 and 549 confirms that the majority of NAIP volcanism occurred as subaerial flows. Thus the trace element records provide constraints on the nature and scope of the environmental impact of the NAIP during the late Paleocene-early Eocene interval. Subaerial volcanism would have injected mantle CO2 directly into the atmosphere| resulting in a more immediate increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas abundances than CO2 input through submarine volcanism. The lack of significant hydrothermalism contradicts recently proposed mechanisms for thermally destabilizing methane hydrate reservoirs during the PETM. Any connection between NAIP volcanism and PETM warming had to occur through the atmosphere. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1775,2005,4,4,Seductive simulations? Uncertainty distribution around climate models,This paper discusses the distribution of certainty around General Circulation Models (GCMs) - computer models used to project possible global climatic changes due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. It examines the trope of distance underpinning Donald MacKenzie's concept of 'certainty trough'| and calls for a more multi-dimensional and dynamic conceptualization of how uncertainty is distributed around technology. The certainty trough describes the level of certainty attached to particular technoscientific constructions as distance increases from the site of knowledge production| and proposes that producers of a given technology and its products are the best judges of their accuracy. Processes and dynamics associated with GCM modeling challenge the simplicity of the certainty trough diagram| mainly because of difficulties with distinguishing between knowledge producers and users| and because GCMs involve multiple sites of production. This case study also challenges the assumption that knowledge producers always are the best judges of the accuracy of their models. Drawing on participant observation and interviews with climate modelers and the atmospheric scientists with whom they interact| the study discusses how modelers| and to some extent knowledge producers in general| are sometimes less able than some users to identify shortcomings of their models. 1909,2005,3,4,Selective adsorption of a substance derived from saccharides onto synthetic resin particles,Most| if not all| of the chemicals and chemical products are made using crude oils as the feedstock. However| this feedstock is decreasing and the utilization of it is causing global climate change. An alternative feedstock must be developed to alleviate these problems. Saccharides (sugars) meet these requirements partly because many useful intermediates and products can be obtained in the presence of an acid. In the case when D-fructose reacts with concentrate hydrochloric acid| 5-hydroxymethyl-furfural (HMF) is formed as the primary product. HMF is well known as one of many useful chemicals from biomass. However| it reacts further to form a HMF dimmer| and it also decomposes to smaller molecules such as levulinic acid. This kind of complex reaction is difficult to control through process variables including temperature| time| pressure| and solvent| in order to obtain selectively a specific product. In this study| a method of direct reaction control using adsorption in the same vessel. The results show that HMF dimmer can be selectively adsorbed onto synthetic resin particles. The results are almost the same as those obtained from a phenolics-carbonaceous adsorbent system. 7144,2005,3,3,Selective oxidation of hydrocarbons and the global warming problem,Based on recently published studies on the life cycle analysis of several chemicals| and the CO2 emissions associated with their production| a new approach to the selective oxidation of light hydrocarbons is discussed. By nature| selective oxidations are also producing CO2 as the end product| much preferred by the thermodynamics. New technologies such as the circulating fluid bed reactor in selective oxidation| could be considered to propose a solution to reduce the CO2 emissions both with respect to the yield improvement| but also as a solution to recover CO2 from a high partial pressure recycling loop. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1807,2005,4,4,Sensitivity analysis of the tree distribution model PHENOFIT to climatic input characteristics: implications for climate impact assessment,Species distributions are already affected by climate change. Forecasting their long-term evolution requires models with thoroughly assessed validation. Our aim here is to demonstrate that the sensitivity of such models to climate input characteristics may complicate their validation and introduce uncertainties in their predictions. In this study| we conducted a sensitivity analysis of a process-based tree distribution model PHENOFIT to climate input characteristics. This analysis was conducted for two North American trees which differ greatly in their distribution and eight different types of climate input for the historic period which differ in their spatial (local or gridded data) and temporal (daily vs. monthly) resolution as well as their type (locally recorded| extrapolated or simulated by General Circulation Models). We show that the climate data resolution (spatial and temporal) and their type| highly affect the model predictions. The sensitivity analysis also revealed| the importance| for global climate change impact assessment| of (i) the daily variability of temperatures in modeling the biological processes shaping species distribution| (ii) climate data at high latitudes and elevations and (iii) climate data with high spatial resolution. 6945,2005,2,4,Sensitivity of free and forced oscillations of the Adriatic Sea to sea level rise,The expected global warming will cause a sea level rise (SLR) that| in addition to direct effects on coastal areas| will affect ocean dynamics. In the Adriatic Sea| seiches| tides and storm surges will change in a way that will depend on the possible human interventions to counteract floods. Such actions have 2 extremes: a full compensation strategy (FCST)| preserving the present coastline by dams| and a no compensation strategy (NCST) that allows a free expansion of the sea into the low plains. Numerical models were used to describe the different scenarios. FCST would result in increased wave speed and reduced friction| while NCST would give a larger basin extension. In the former case| the resonant period was shortened and moved away from the period of tides: the amplitude of these| and also the surge height| would be reduced (if all other conditions are maintained)| while seiches would show an overall larger range. In contrast| the absence of countermeasures would lengthen the resonant period| giving larger tidal range in the northern part and stronger surges. In the case of NCST| assuming an extreme 10 m SLR| dramatic effects would be observed on the semidiurnal tide and the second seiche that would almost double their range at the coast. The results emphasize the strong difference stemming from alternate compensation strategies| but they also show that the changes in the amplitude of the sea surface oscillations are small with respect to the SLR; indeed| not relevant for the variations of level expected for the next 100 yr. 7181,2005,2,4,Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet simulation to the numerical procedure employed for ice-sheet dynamics,The response of the Greenland ice sheet to global warming is simulated by two different numerical approaches| in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the analysis to the numerical structure employed. It is found that the thickness near the margin differs appreciably in these two simulations under identical conditions of modest warming| primarily due to a significant increase in the warming effect by an elevation-ablation feedback mechanism in one of the simulations. The change in ice-sheet volume differs by as much as a factor of two under strong climate-change forcing| demonstrating the need for care in interpreting the results of such climate-change analysis. 6964,2005,4,3,Sensitivity of the ocean's climate to diapycnal diffusivity in an EMIC. Part II: Global warming scenario,The sensitivity of the ocean's climate to the diapycnal diffusivity in the ocean is studied for a global warming scenario in which CO2 increases by 1% yr(-1) for 75 yr. The thermohaline circulation slows down for about 100 yr and recovers afterward| for any value of the diapycnal diffusivity. The rates of slowdown and of recovery| as well as the percentage recovery of the circulation at the end of 1000-yr integrations| are variable| but a direct relation with the diapycnal diffusivity cannot be found. At year 70 (when CO2 has doubled) an increase of the diapycnal diffusivity from 0.1 to 1.0 cm(2) s(-1) leads to a decrease in surface air temperature of about 0.4 K and an increase in sea level rise of about 4 cm. The steric height gradient is divided into thermal component and haline component. It appears that| in the first 60 yr of simulated global warming| temperature variations dominate the salinity ones in weakly diffusive models| whereas the opposite occurs in strongly diffusive models. The analysis of the vertical heat balance reveals that deep-ocean heat uptake is due to reduced upward isopycnal diffusive flux and parameterized-eddy advective flux. Surface warming| induced by enhanced CO2 in the atmosphere| leads to a reduction of the isopycnal slope| which translates into a reduction of the above fluxes. The amount of reduction is directly related to the magnitude of the isopycnal diffusive flux and parameterized-eddy advective flux at equilibrium. These latter fluxes depend on the thickness of the thermocline at equilibrium and hence on the diapycnal diffusion. Thus| the increase of deep-ocean heat uptake with diapycnal diffusivity is an indirect effect that the latter parameter has on the isopycnal diffusion and parameterized-eddy advection. 6786,2005,2,3,Sensitivity of wave energy to climate change,Wave energy will have a key role in meeting renewable energy targets en route to a low carbon economy. However| in common with other renewables| it may be sensitive to changes in climate resulting from rising carbon emissions. Changes in wind patterns are widely anticipated| and this will ultimately alter wave regimes. Indeed| evidence indicates that wave heights have been changing over the last 40 years| although there is no proven link to global warming. Changes in the wave climate will affect wave energy conversion. Where the resource is restricted| there may be reductions in energy exports and| consequently| negative economic impacts. On the other hand| increased storm activity will increase installation survival risks. Here a study is presented that| for the first time| indicates the sensitivity of wave energy production and economics to changes in climate. 6897,2005,3,4,Separating rhizosphere respiration from total soil respiration in two larch plantations in northeastern China,The potential capacity of soil to sequester carbon in response to global warming is strongly regulated by the ratio of rhizosphere respiration to respiration by soil microbial decomposers| because of their different temperature sensitivities. To quantify relative contributions of rhizosphere respiration to total soil respiration as influenced by forest stand development| we conducted a trenching study in two larch (Larix gmelini (Rupr.) Rupr.) plantations| aged 17 and 31 years| in northeastern China. Four plots in each plantation were randomly selected and trenched in early May 2001. Soil surface CO2 effluxes both inside and outside the plots were measured from May 2001 to August 2002. Soil respiration (i.e.| the CO2 effluxes outside the trenched plots) varied similarly in the two plantations from 0.8 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) in winter to 6.0 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) in summer. Rhizosphere respiration (i.e.| CO2 efflux outside the trenched plots minus that inside the plots) varied from 0.2 to 2.0 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) in the old forest and from 0.3 to 4.0 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) in the young forest over the seasons. Rhizosphere respiration| on average| accounted for 25% of soil respiration in the old forest and 65% in the young forest. Rhizosphere and soil respiration were significantly correlated with soil temperature but not with soil water content. We conclude that the role forests play in regulating climate change may depend on their age. 7127,2005,2,4,Shifts in southern endpoints of distribution in rocky intertidal species along the south-eastern Pacific coast,Aim Despite the pervasive and well-documented effects of global warming on species' ranges in terrestrial taxa and systems| the effect of sea surface warming has been poorly studied in marine systems. Here we analyse changes in the southern endpoints of distribution of rocky intertidal species (gastropods and chitons) along the Chilean coast| and trends in sea surface temperature (SST)| using data collected during the last half-century. Location South-eastern Pacific coast| between 18degrees20' S and 42degrees35' S. Methods Past southern endpoints of distribution were obtained for 10 intertidal species from museum collections and literature reviews. Current endpoints are based on field sampling conducted between 1998 and 2000. Changes in the position of southern endpoints were analysed individually for each species| as well as for the entire assemblage of species included in the analysis. SST records encompassing 51-57 years were obtained from five coastal stations located between 18degrees and 36degrees S. Results and main conclusions Most species (eight of 10) did not show expansion of their southern endpoint. The proportion of species expanding| contracting or maintaining their southern limit did not differ from chance expectation. On average| species showed small (1degrees latitude)| non-significant contractions| with low rates of decadal change (0.18degrees latitude per 10 years). This pattern can be explained by changes in SST| which showed a weak warming trend (and at some sites even cooling) along the Chilean coast during the last 57 years. Our results show that different regional warming trends occur| and suggest that generalizations about poleward shifts in species ranges cannot be made. However| our results support the hypothesis that temperature is a major determinant of species range dynamics. 6889,2005,4,3,Short-term effects of single or combined application of mineral N fertilizer and cattle slurry on the fluxes of radiatively active trace gases from grassland soil,After implementation of legislative measures for the reduction of environmental hazards from nitrate leaching and ammonia volatilisation when using organic manures and fertilizers in Europe| much attention is now paid to the specific effects of these fertilizers on the dynamics of global warming-relevant trace gases in soil. Particularly nitrogen fertilizers and slurTy from animal husbandry are known to play a key role for the CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes from soils. Here we report on a short-term evaluation of trace gas fluxes in grassland as affected by single or combined application of mineral fertilizer and organic manure in early spring. Methane fluxes were characterised by a short methane emission event immediately after application of cattle slurry. Within the same day methane fluxes returned to negative| and on average over the 4-day period after slurTy application| only a small but insignificant trend to reduced methane oxidation was found. Nitrous oxide emissions showed a pronounced effect of combined slurry and mineral fertilizer application. In particular fresh cattle slurry combined with calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) mineral fertilizer induced an increase in mean N20 flux during the first 4 days after application from 10 to 300 mu g N(2)O-N m(-2) h(-1). (15)N analysis of emitted N(2)O from (15)N-labelled fertilizer or manure indicated that easily decomposable slurry C compounds induced a pronounced promotion of N(2)O-N emission derived from mineral CAN fertilizer. Fluxes after application of either mineral fertilizer or slurry alone showed an increase of less than 5-fold. The NO(x) sink strength of the soil was in the range of -6 to -10 mu g NO(x)-N m(-2) h(-1) and after fertilization it showed a tendency to be reduced by no more than 2 mu g NO(x)-N m(-2) h(-1)| which was a result of both| increased NO emission and slightly increased NO(2) deposition. Associated determination of the N(2)O:N(2) emission ratio revealed that after mineral N application (CAN) a large proportion (c. 50 %) was emitted as N(2)O| while after application of slurry with easily decomposable C and predominantly NH(4)(+)-N serving as N-source| the N(2)O:N(2) emission ratio was 1:14| i.e. was changed in favour of N2. Our work provides evidence that particularly the combination of slurry and nitrate-containing N fertilizers gives rise to considerable N20 emissions from mineral fertilizer N pool. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7199,2005,4,2,Signals of anthropogenic influence on European warming as seen in the trend patterns of daily temperature variance,Signals of anthropogenic warming over Europe are searched for in the spatial trend patterns for the variance and skewness (expressed by the 10th and 90th percentiles) of the distribution of daily mean temperature. Comparisons are made between these patterns in the station records of the European Climate Assessment dataset for the 1976-99 period| the patterns associated with natural variability in the observations (which were empirically derived from the observations in the 1946-75 period)| and the patterns of future warming and natural variability as simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model in the Challenge ensemble experiment. The results indicate that| on the basis of the patterns for the variance| a distinction can be made between temperature change due to natural variability and temperature change due to changes in external forcing. The observed variance trend patterns for the spring (March-May) and summer (June-August) warming 1976-99 are clearly different from the patterns for the change in variance associated with a warming due to natural variability in the observations. This led us to conclude that a change in an external forcing has to be invoked to explain the observed spring and summer warming. From the evaluation of the greenhouse and natural variability patterns in the climate model simulations| we infer that the observed spring and summer variance trend patterns contain imprints consistent with anthropogenic warming. The analysis of the variance trend patterns for the winter (December-February) season is inconclusive about identifying causes of the observed warming for that season. Unlike the other three seasons| the autumn (September-November) is for Europe a period of cooling in recent decades. The observed variance trend pattern for this season closely resembles the estimated pattern for the change in variance associated with a cooling due to natural variability| indicating that the observed autumn cooling can be ascribed to random weather variations in the period under consideration. Copyright (C) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. 7212,2005,3,4,Significance of intermediate production processes in life cycle assessment of electronic products assessed using a generic compact model,In this paper a generic model for life cycle inventory (LCI) data collection is presented and applied to a product system of a Digital System Telephone (DST). It is shown that the intermediate unit processes (IUPs) are of global warming importance. Compared to earlier efforts in the field of environmental life cycle assessment of electronic products| this model enables a more partitioned LCA result| with respect to both components and processes. In our model the components are first divided into main groups and then into sub-groups. This division results in process modules for unit processes| some of which are similar to the ongoing components| thus| reducing the computational effort. The model is demonstrated for a "cradle-to-gate" calculation focusing on greenhouse gas emissions. Using scenario analysis for integrated circuits and printed wiring boards| the possible contribution from IUPs was analysed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7147,2005,2,4,Similar response of labile and resistant soil organic matter pools to changes in temperature,Our understanding of the relationship between the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) and soil temperature affects our predictions of the impact of climate change on soil-stored carbon(1). One current opinion is that the decomposition of soil labile carbon is sensitive to temperature variation whereas resistant components are insensitive(2-4). The resistant carbon or organic matter in mineral soil is then assumed to be unresponsive to global warming(2|4). But the global pattern and magnitude of the predicted future soil carbon stock will mainly rely on the temperature sensitivity of these resistant carbon pools. To investigate this sensitivity| we have incubated soils under changing temperature. Here we report that SOM decomposition or soil basal respiration rate was significantly affected by changes in SOM components associated with soil depth| sampling method and incubation time. We find| however| that the temperature sensitivity for SOM decomposition was not affected| suggesting that the temperature sensitivity for resistant organic matter pools does not differ significantly from that of labile pools| and that both types of SOM will therefore respond similarly to global warming. 6907,2005,2,4,Simulated change of the east Asian circulation under global warming scenario,Changes in east Asian circulation pattern are investigated by the most recent versions of coupled climate models| one a high resolution version of the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC model and the other an ensemble of 17 state-of-the-art models made available by the international modeling community. These recent model results appear to give more credence to the following aspects: weakened winter monsoon associated with the shallower and northeastward shifted planetary wave trough over the east coast of the Eurasian Continent and increased activity of east Asian monsoonal rain band in summer associated with the strengthening of anticyclonic cells to its south and north. 6778,2005,2,4,Simulated changes due to global warming in the variability of precipitation| and their interpretation using a gamma-distributed stochastic model,The interannual variability of monthly mean January and July precipitation and its possible change due to global warming are assessed using a five-member ensemble of climate for the period 1871-2100| simulated by the CSIRO Mark 2 global coupled atmosphere-ocean model. In the 1961-1990 climate| for much of the middle to high latitudes the standard deviation of precipitation for both months is roughly proportional to the mean| with the coefficient of variation (C) typically 0.3-0.5. The variability there is shown to be largely consistent with that from a first-order Markov chain model of the daily rainfall occurrence| with the distribution of wet-day amounts approximated by a gamma distribution| Global distributions of Mark 2-based parameters of this stochastic model| commonly used in weather generators| are presented. In low latitudes| however| the variability from the coupled model is typically double that anticipated by the stochastic model| as quantified by an 'overdispersion ratio. C often exceeds one at subtropical locations| where rain is less frequent| but sometimes relatively heavy. The standard deviation of monthly mean precipitation S generally increases as the global model warms| with the global mean S in 2071-2100 in January (July) being 9.0% (11.5%) larger than in 1961-1990. Decreases in some subtropical locations occur| particularly where mean precipitation decreases. The global pattern of overdispersion is largely unchanged| however| and the changes in S can be related to those in the stochastic model parameters. Much of the increase in S is associated with increases in the scale parameter of the gamma distribution of wet-day amounts. Changes in C| which is unaffected by this parameter| are generally small. Increases in C in several subtropical bands and over northern midlatitude land in July are related to a decreased frequency of precipitation| and (to a lesser degree) changes in the gamma shape parameter. Some potential applications of the results to downscaling are discussed| and illustrated using observed rainfall from southeast Australia. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7071,2005,4,4,Simulating the exchanges of carbon dioxide| water vapor and heat over Changbai Mountains temperate broadleaved Korean pine mixed forest ecosystem,A process-based ecosystem productivity model BEPS (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator) was updated to simulate half-hourly exchanges of carbon| water and energy between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem at a temperate broad-leaved Korean pine forest in the Changbai Mountains| China. The BEPSh model is able to capture the diurnal and seasonal variability in carbon dioxide| water vapor and heat fluxes at this site in the growing season of 2003. The model validation showed that the simulated net ecosystem productivity (NEP)| latent heat flux (LE)| sensible heat flux (H-s) are in good agreement with eddy covariance measurements with an R-2 value of 0.68| 0.86 and 0.72 for NEP| LE and Hs| respectively. The simulated annual NEP of this forest in 2003 was 300.5 gC/m(2)| and was very close to the observed value. Driving this model with different climate scenarios| we found that the NEP in the Changbai Mountains temperate broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest ecosystem was sensitive to climate variability| and the current carbon sink will be weakened under the condition of global warming. Furthermore| as a process-based model| BEPSh was also sensitive to physiological parameters of plant| such as maximum Rubisco activity (V-cmax) and the maximum stomatal conductance (g(max)) and needs to be carefully calibrated for other applications. 7058,2005,3,3,Simulation of CO2 sequestration in coal beds: The effects of sorption isotherms,For over 30 years| horizontal wells have been drilled into coal seams to release trapped methane and improve mine safety. For more than two decades| significant quantities of gas sorbed in coal seams have been collected as a relatively environmentally friendly fossil fuel energy resource. Laboratory experiments have shown that coals preferentially sorb carbon dioxide. Thus| concomitant enhanced coal bed methane production and carbon dioxide sequestration in unminable coal seams is a promising technology being developed as a win-win process to reduce global warming and produce a valuable energy resource. However| because CO2 will not reach all portions of the seam| not all of the in situ methane will be produced and not all of the "theoretical"| sequestration capacity will be utilized. For sequestration| the amount of carbon dioxide that could be stored in the coal seam was found to be between 50% and 70% of the thermodynamic limit. The fraction of methane produced was much higher| between 80% and 97%. Reservoir simulations were used to predict how the well pattern and operating conditions can be modified to maximize the amounts of CO2 stored and CH4 recovered. For this study| we used the PSU-COALCOMP compositional coal bed methane reservoir simulator and measured sorption isotherms to predict the maximum amount of carbon dioxide that could be sequestered in a coal seam and show how coal seam characteristics and injection practices will reduce the actual amount sequestered. Crown Copyright (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6752,2005,2,2,Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries,The Sahel| the transition zone between the Saharan desert and the rainforests of Central Africa and the Guinean Coast| experienced a severe drying trend from the 1950s to the 1980s| from which there has been partial recovery. Continuation of either the drying trend or the more recent ameliorating trend would have far-ranging implications for the economy and ecology of the region. Coupled atmosphere/ocean climate models being used to simulate the future climate have had difficulty simulating Sahel rainfall variations comparable to those observed| thus calling into question their ability to predict future climate change in this region. We describe simulations using a new global climate model that capture several aspects of the 20th century rainfall record in the Sahel. An ensemble mean over eight realizations shows a drying trend in the second half of the century of nearly half of the observed amplitude. Individual realizations can be found that display striking similarity to the observed time series and drying pattern| consistent with the hypothesis that the observations are a superposition of an externally forced trend and internal variability. The drying trend in the ensemble mean of the model simulations is attributable to anthropogenic forcing| partly to an increase in aerosol loading and partly to an increase in greenhouse gases. The model projects a drier Sahel in the future| due primarily to increasing greenhouse gases. 6963,2005,2,4,Siple Coast ice streams in a general Antarctic ice sheet model,In an earlier paper by Verbitsky and Saltzman| a vertically integrated| high-resolution| nonlinearly viscous| nonisothermal ice sheet model was presented to calculate the "present-day" equilibrium regime of the Antarctic ice sheet. Steady-state solutions for the ice topography and thermodynamics| represented by the extent of the areas of basal melting| were shown to be in good agreement with both observations and results obtained from other three-dimensional thermodynamical equations. The solution for the basal temperature field of the West Antarctic Siple Coast produced areas at the pressure melting point separated by strips of frozen-to-bed ice| the structure of which looks very similar to ice streams A-E. Since the possible response of the Siple Coast basal temperature pattern to global warming and to associated changes in the snowfall rate is not obvious| a special sensitivity study was conducted. Results of such a study suggest that increased precipitation rate and associated intensification of ice advection can effectively "shut down" West Antarctic ice streams. 1811,2005,2,4,Snow and glacier cover assessment in the high mountains of Sikkim Himalaya,This study highlights the assessment of snow and glacier cover for possible inferences of global climate change impacts in high mountains like the Himalaya. The test catchment of the River Tista lies in the Sikkim state of the Indian Himalayan region| with steep mountains crossing nearly all ecozones| from subtropical to glacial. River flows are highly fluctuating| especially during the peak rainy season and snowmelt periods. Annual rainfall patterns are non-uniform and can cause large floods. Runoff and discharge downstream are highly dependent upon snow and glacier extent. The temporary storage of frozen water brings about a delay in seasonal runoff. Snow cover built up in the higher regions during the winter months melts in the spring-summer-autumn cycles and contributes to groundwater recharge. A spatial baseline inventory of snow cover/glacier| the permanent snowline and its short-term temporal changes in the remote high-mountain areas have been analysed using multidate Indian Remote Sensing Satellite data of 1992 to 1997. A geographic information system-based overlay has led to inferences on snow cover characteristics and the alignment| dimension| slope disposition| heights of the snout and associated features of each of the glaciers. Snow and glacier recession are to be monitored in future on a long-term basis to derive correlations with climate-change parameters. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 1880,2005,3,3,Soil carbon and the mitigation of global climate change,SOIL CARBON AND THE MITIGATION OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. The soils of the world contain more carbon than the combined total amounts occurring in vegetation and the atmosphere. Hence soils are a major reservoir of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and an important sink. Recently| emphasis has been placed on the need to sequester carbon from atmospheric carbon dioxide into soil organic matter because of international concerns about greenhouse gas emissions and global climate change. The best strategies to built-up carbon stocks in the soil are basically those that increase the input of organic matter to the soil| and/or decrease the rate of soil organic matter decomposition. Grain crop systems based on soil ploughing and harrowing lead to Co-2 emissions combined with tremendous soil losses. In Brazil| no-tillage system was introduced to combat soil erosion by water and this soil management led to the build-up of soil carbon stocks with simultaneous high crop yields. However| the present procedure used to quantify carbon stocks in soils is laborious and of high cost. The use of infrared spectroscopy is very promising as an alternative low-cost method of soil carbon determination. 7030,2005,2,4,Soil carbon changes after 26 years in a Cumberland Plateau hardwood forest,Concerns about global warming and discussions of possible mitigation measures have generated a need for information on changes in soil C over time. The objective of this study was to determine if there was a change in soil C concentration in an aggrading oak forest over a 26-yr interval. Using permanently identified points on the Camp Branch Experimental Watershed| soil samples were first collected in July of 1976 and archived. During July of 2002| 11 points covering 6 of the 18 soil series present on the watershed were resampled. The series chosen represent a range in topographic positions and forest cover types. In both 1.976 and 2002| a bucket auger was used to collect samples at depth intervals of 0 to 10| 10 to 30| and 30 to 50 cm. Both sample sets were analyzed in 2002 using a loss on combustion technique to determine organic C concentration. A bootstrapping data analysis indicated an increase (95% confidence interval) in the concentration of C in the 0- to 10-cm depth. No change in C concentration occurred in the 10- to 30- or 30- to 50-cm samples. Average soil C concentration in the 0- to 10-cm samples increased from a mean of 20.8 g kg(-1)in 1976 to 35.9 g kg(-1) in 2002. Among soil series| concentrations ranged from 9.5 to 28.9 g kg(-1) in 1976 and 22.1 to 64.7 g kg(-1) in 2002. Although the sample numbers are limited| results indicate that average soil C concentration in the top 10 cm of the mineral soil increased by 73% at this site over a 26-yr interval. 1905,2005,3,4,Soil carbon sequestration for sustaining agricultural production and improving the environment with particular reference to Brazil,Agricultural ecosystems generally contain less soil organic carbon (SOC) pool than their potential capacity because of the low return and high rate of mineralization of biosolids| and severe losses due to accelerated erosion and leaching. Conversion of natural to agricultural ecosystems usually causes depletion of 50 to 75 percent of the antecedent SOC pool| thereby creating a potential sink capacity of as much as 35 to 40 Mg C/ha. The depletion of SOC pool leads to decline in soil quality and resilience with attendant reduction in biomass productivity| decreased capacity to degrade and filter pollutants| increased risks of soil degradation by erosion and other processes| and increase in emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The magnitude of depletion of SOC pool is greater for soils of the tropics than temperate regions| and for farms which are resource-based and managed with low-input than those managed with science-based and judicious off-farm inputs. The SOC sequestration| increasing SOC pool through conversion to an appropriate land use and adoption of recommended management practices (RMPs)| can reverse soil degradation trends| improve soil quality and resilience| increase biomass production and decrease emission of GHGs. A strong link exists between the labile fraction of SOC pool and soil biodiversitythe activity and species diversity of soil fauna (micro| meso and macro) and micro-organisms. Soil biodiversity is usually higher under pastures and planted fallow systems than under crops| and is likely to increase with adoption of conservation tillage and mulch farming| integrated nutrient management and manuring| mixed farming systems and integrated pest management (IPM) techniques. The gross rates of SOC sequestration through adoption of RMPs range from 400 to 800 kg/ha/y for cool and humid regions and 100 to 200 kg/ha/y for dry and warm climates. The potential of soil C sequestration in Brazil is estimated at about 50 Tg C/y. In addition| 60 Tg C/y emitted by erosion-induced mineralization can also be avoided through effective erosion control measures. 7151,2005,4,4,Soil carbon: A measure of ecosystem response in a changing world?,Janzen| H. H. 2005. Soil carbon: A measure of ecosystem response in a changing world? Can. J. Soil Sci. 85: 467-480. The global carbon (C) cycle is changing| as evident from abrupt increases in atmospheric CO2. These changes have sparked interest in agricultural soils as potential repositories for excess atmospheric C. Our perspective-on soil C| therefore| has shifted: once| we focused mainly on how soil C affected productivity within agroecosystems; now we see also how C dynamics in agricultural soils exert influences far beyond the farm. We have long used soil C as an indicator of soil quality; now we may want to use soil C also as a broader indicator of ecosystem response. To prompt further discussion| I offer some tentative thoughts about how we might use soil C as an indicator on a changing earth. They include: using soil C to measure changes across time| not only across space; devising more sensitive measures of soil C change; quantifying soil C across four dimensions; measuring the nature of C| as well as its amount; using soil C alongside other indicators; finding better ways of admitting our uncertainty; establishing long-term sites for our successors to measure soil C change; and following flows of C past the farm fences. Recent worries about global warming have focused our attention on "sequestering" soil C to remove atmospheric CO2. That aim may be worthy| but perhaps too narrow; a broader goal might be to ensure the productivity| permanence| and health of our agroecosystems and adjacent environments - and use C storage as a measure of progress toward that goal. 7161,2005,5,4,Solar forcing of global temperature change since AD 1400,It is well known that the magnetic field imbedded in the solar wind modulates the production of cosmogenic isotopes by galactic cosmic rays. Power spectral analysis yields evidence for fundamental periods relevant to this study including the Suess| Gleissberg| Hale and Schwabe cycles of ca. 210| 88| 22 and 11 years lengths. There is increasing evidence for an irradiance component accompanying each of these cycles. Assuming this is valid| we model the magnitude of irradiance change associated with these cycles that is compatible with the paleoclimate record. We conclude that the resultant model fit requires less than 0.8%. change in solar irradiance for each of these cycles even if we assume low climate sensitivity (0.5degreesC(Wm(-2))). Our solar irradiance model accounts for about 18% of 20th century global warming to 1997 and also predicts that the next maximum would occur in AD 2040 and contribute 0.2 degreesC to 21st century Northern Hemisphere warming. 6829,2005,3,2,Solar powered air conditioning as a solution to reduce environmental pollution in Tunisia,In Tunisia| during the summer| the demand for electricity greatly increases because of the extensive use of air-conditioning systems. This is a source of major problems in the country's electricity supply and contributes to an increase Of CO2 emissions causing the environmental pollution and global warming. On the other hand| vapor compression air conditioning systems have impacts on stratospheric ozone depletion because of the chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) and the hydrofluorocarbon (HCFC) refrigerants. The use of solar energy to drive cooling cycles is attractive since the cooling load is roughly in phase with solar energy availability. To cool with solar thermal energy| one solution is to use an absorption chillier using water and lithium bromide solution. In this study we present a project aims at assessing the feasibility of solar powered absorption cooling technology under Tunisian conditions. A simulation with the TRNSYS program is carried out in order to select and size the different components of the solar machine to be installed (collectors| storage tank| heat exchangers...). 7042,2005,4,4,Solar-induced and internal climate variability at decadal time scales,Statistical analyses of long-term instrumental and proxy data emphasize a distinction between two quasi-decadal modes of climate variability. One mode is linked to atmosphere-ocean interactions ('the internal mode') and the other one is associated with the solar sunspots cycle ('the solar mode'). The distinct signatures of these two modes are also detected in a high-resolution sediment core located in the Cariaco basin. In the oceanic surface temperature the internal mode explains about three times more variance than the solar mode. In contrast| the solar mode dominates over the internal mode in the sea-level pressure and upper atmospheric fields. The heterogeneous methods and data sets used in this study underline the distinction between these decadal modes and enable estimation of their relative importance. The distinction between these modes is important for the understanding of climate variability| the recent global warming trend and the interpretation of high-resolution proxy data. Copyright (c) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. 6905,2005,2,4,Spatial and temporal variability in active layer thickness over the Russian Arctic drainage basin,[1] Changes in active layer thickness (ALT) over northern high-latitude permafrost regions have important impacts on the surface energy balance| hydrologic cycle| carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface| plant growth| and ecosystems as a whole. This study examines the 20th century variations of ALT for the Ob| Yenisey| and Lena River basins. ALT is estimated from historical soil temperature measurements from 17 stations ( 1956 - 1990| Lena basin only)| an annual thawing index based on both surface air temperature data ( 1901 - 2002) and numerical modeling ( 1980 - 2002). The latter two provide spatial fields. Based on the thawing index| the long-term average ( 1961 - 1990) ALT is about 1.87 m in the Ob| 1.67 in the Yenisey| and 1.69 m in the Lena basin. Over the past several decades| ALT over the three basins shows positive trends| but with different magnitudes. Based on the 17 stations| ALT increased about 0.32 m between 1956 and 1990 in the Lena. To the extent that results based on the soil temperatures represent ground "truth|'' ALT obtained from both the thawing index and numerical modeling is underestimated. It is widely believed that ALT will increase with global warming. However| this hypothesis needs further refinement since ALT responds primarily to summer air temperature while observed warming has occurred mainly in winter and spring. It is also shown that ALT exhibits complex and inconsistent responses to variations in snow cover. 6766,2005,2,4,Spatial heterogeneity of the driving forces of cropland change in China,By using digital satellite remote sensing data acquired in 1987-1989 and 19992000 and GIS combined with the natural and socio-economic data| this paper drew an integrated zonation of the cropland change and its driving forces in China. The results indicated that the cropland change in the study period was constrained by geographical factors and driven by climate change as well as socio-economic system. Moreover| the regional differences of the drivels for cropland change were significant. In the midwest of China| natural condition changes and geographical background were the main constraints and drivers| while in Eastern China| social and economic changes and economic policies were the main driving forces. The cropland loss was nationwide. The dominant factors to cause this decrease included buildup of developing area to attract foreign capital and technologies| changes of industry structure due to urban influence| the change of employment notions thanks to living standard improvement| rapid urbanization due to the expansion of cities and towns| the diminished farming net income partly because of the global warming effects| and the rapid economic growth stimulated by the convenient transportation system. These factors interact and interdepend with each other to cause the cropland loss in China recently. The reasons for the increase of cropland were primarily the cultivation and deforestation by the farmers who want to increase income. This study on the mechnism of LUCC relied on the cropland change integrated classification considering the: natural or human factors both inside and outside the region| which provides a new approach to study the integrated regionalization and LUCC mechanism. 6825,2005,2,4,Spatial patterns of tree recruitment in a relict population of Pinus uncinata: forest expansion through stratified diffusion,Aim To infer future changes in the distribution of isolated relict tree populations at the limit of a species' geographical range| a deep understanding of the regeneration niche and the spatial pattern of tree recruitment is needed. Location A relict Pinus uncinata population located at the south-western limit of distribution of the species in the Iberian System of north-eastern Spain. Methods Pinus uncinata individuals were mapped within a 50 x 40-m plot| and their size| age and reproductive status were estimated. Data on seed dispersal were obtained from a seed-release experiment. The regeneration niche of the species was assessed based on the associations of seedling density with substrate and understorey cover. The spatial pattern of seedlings was described using point-pattern (Ripley's K) and surface-pattern (correlograms| Moran's I) analyses. Statistical and inverse modelling were used to characterize seedling clustering. Results Pine seedlings appeared aggregated in 6-m patches. Inverse modelling estimated a longer mean dispersal distance (27 m)| which corresponded to the size of a large cluster along the north to north-eastward direction paralleled by an eastward trend of increasing seedling age. The two spatial scales of recruitment were related to two dispersal processes. The small-scale clustering of seedlings was due to local seed dispersal in open areas near the edge of Calluna vulgaris mats: the regeneration niche. The long-range expansion might be caused by less frequent medium-distance dispersal events due to the dominant north-westerly winds. Main conclusions To understand future range shifts of marginal tree populations| data on seed dispersal| regeneration niche and spatial pattern of recruitment at local scales should be obtained. The monitoring of understorey communities should be a priority in order to predict correctly shifts in tree species range in response to global warming. 6940,2005,2,4,Species extinction in the marine environment: Tasmania as a regional example of overlooked losses in biodiversity,We used Tasmania as a case example to question the consensus that few marine species have recently become extinct or are approaching extinction. Threats to marine and estuarine species primarily in the form of climate change| invasive species| fishing| and catchment discharges-are accelerating| fully encompass species ranges| and are of sufficient magnitude to cause extinction. Our ignorance of declining biodiversity in the marine environment largely results from an almost complete lack of systematic broad-scale sampling and an overreliance on physicochemical data to monitor environmental trends. Population declines for marine species approaching extinction will generally go unnoticed because of the hidden nature of their environment and lack of quantitative data. 1822,2005,5,4,Species-energy relationship in the deep sea: a test using the Quaternary fossil record,Little is known about the processes regulating species richness in deep-sea communities. Here we take advantage of natural experiments involving climate change to test whether predictions of the species-energy hypothesis hold in the deep sea. In addition| we test for the relationship between temperature and species richness predicted by a recent model based on biochemical kinetics of metabolism. Using the deep-sea fossil record of benthic foraminifera and statistical meta-analyses of temperature-richness and productivity-richness relationships in 10 deep-sea cores| we show that temperature but not productivity is a significant predictor of species richness over the past c. 130 000 years. Our results not only show that the temperature-richness relationship in the deep-sea is remarkably similar to that found in terrestrial and shallow marine habitats| but also that species richness tracks temperature change over geological time| at least on scales of c. 100 000 years. Thus| predicting biotic response to global climate change in the deep sea would require better understanding of how temperature regulates the occurrences and geographical ranges of species. 6809,2005,2,4,Springtime in the abyss,For some deep-sea marine animals it is becoming clear that although life at deep-sea vents and seeps will certainly survive whatever changes global warming brings. However it may not survive unchanged. 6953,2005,3,2,Stabilization and global climate policy,Academic and political debates over long-run climate policy often invoke "stabilization" of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs)| but only rarely are non-CO2 greenhouse gases addressed explicitly. Even though the majority of short-term climate policies propose trading between gases on a global warming potential (GWP) basis| discussions of whether CO2 concentrations should be 450| 550| 650 or perhaps as much as 750 ppm leave unstated whether there should be no additional forcing from other GHGs beyond current levels or whether separate concentration targets should be established for each GHG. Here| we use an integrated modeling framework to examine multi-gas stabilization in terms of temperature| economic costs| carbon uptake and other important consequences. We show that there are significant differences in both costs and climate impacts between different "GWP equivalent" policies and demonstrate the importance of non-CO2 GHG reduction on timescales of up to several centuries. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7090,2005,2,3,Stark effects from global warming,Carbon dioxide emissions are causing oceans to warm| ocean chemistry to changeand rainfall patterns to shift. Some biosystems| such as coral reefs| may be approaching the threshold for damage and if global temperatures rise more than1.5 degrees centigrade over todays level tropical reefs may be irreversibly destroyed. Summer meltwater from glacial regions such as Greenland could disrupt ocean circulation and its transport of heat. Scientists warn that energy will have to be derived from sources other than fossil fuels to decarbonize the economy and prevent further increases in global warming. 7226,2005,3,4,Steady sailing performance of a hybrid-sail assisted bulk carrier,The steady sailing performance of a sail-assisted bulk carrier is investigated utilising towing-tank derived hydrodynamic derivatives and wind tunnel measured aerodynamic properties of the sails and the ship. The aerodynamic characteristics investigated include the ship hull at the fullyloaded draught| the sail-sail interaction effects for two sets of four identical hybrid-sails| and the sail-hull interaction effects for the same two sets of identical sails in the presence of the selected bulk carrier hull-form. This is in addition to lift-drag measurements of single isolated sails of each shape. The form of the two sets of soft sails was rectangular and triangular. This paper is concerned with assessing the benefits of a sail-assisted ship operation| and hence a steady-state rather than complete time-domain integrations of the governing equations are reported. The results of the completed analysis suggest that the benefits of the derived sail generated driving force are greater than the overhead of equipping the ship with a selected system of hybrid-sails. Sail-assisted ships could represent an important contribution to an improving global environment by reducing the demands for a driving force through the propeller. 7005,2005,2,4,Storage and mineralization of carbon and nitrogen in soils of a frost-boil tundra ecosystem in Siberia,This study examines the carbon and nitrogen stocks of soils and vegetation in different frost-boil tundra microsites (rims| troughs and bare soil patches) and aims at elucidating differences in controls of organic matter turnover. Troughs| the wettest microsite| stored the greatest part of soil C and N (23.9 and 1.7 kg m(-2)| respectively)| while drier rims held only 50% and bare soil patches only about 17% of the C and N found in troughs. Both C and N mineralization rates were higher in rims compared to troughs| suggesting a higher turnover of organic matter in rims. On an areal basis N was predominantly mineralized in mineral horizons. while C mineralization was more or less equally distributed between organic and mineral horizons. Thus| atmospheric warming. which has a stronger effect on the upper soil layers| may increase C mineralization to a higher extent than N mineralization (mainly located in lower soil layers). This suggests that frost-boil tundra ecosystems may be (at least in the short-term) sources of CO2 to the atmosphere. Furthermore| the combined results of gross N mineralization and net N mineralization measurements showed a higher microbial sink strength for N in rims compared to troughs| suggesting that decomposition of organic material in rims is controlled mainly by N availability| while the main factor constraining decomposition in troughs may be unfavourable hydrothermal conditions. This may lead to differential responses of frost-boil tundra microsites to changing climatic conditions. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7057,2005,4,4,Streamflow simulations of the terrestrial Arctic domain,[1] Predicting riverine discharge to the Arctic Ocean has become increasingly important because of the dominant role that river runoff plays in the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean| and the predicted high sensitivity of the region to global warming. The ability of land surface models to represent runoff and streamflow from northern river basins is critical to an understanding of the Arctic hydrologic cycle. A set of simulations with the land surface scheme VIC ( Variable Infiltration Capacity) implemented at 100 km EASE-Grid across the pan-Arctic domain was conducted to evaluate the model's representation of various hydrologic processes in the Arctic land region| and to provide a consistent baseline hydroclimatology for the region. The pan-Arctic drainage basin system was partitioned into 12 regions for purposes of model implementation and testing. Streamflow observations at various basin outlets| satellite-based snow cover extent| observed dates of lake freeze-up and break-up| and sited monitored summer permafrost maximum active layer thickness were used to evaluate various simulated hydrologic variables. The results indicate that the VIC model was able to reproduce these hydrologic processes in the Arctic region. A 21-year average river inflow ( 1979 - 1999) to the Arctic Ocean from the AORB ( Arctic Ocean River Basin) illustrated in Prowse and Flegg ( 2000)| was estimated with the simulated streamflow as 3354 km(3)/yr| and 3596 km(3)/yr with the inclusion of the Arctic Archepelago| which are comparable to the previous estimates derived from the observed data. 6974,2005,2,3,Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future,Atmospheric aerosols counteract the warming effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases by an uncertain| but potentially large| amount. This in turn leads to large uncertainties in the sensitivity of climate to human perturbations| and therefore also in carbon cycle feedbacks and projections of climate change. In the future| aerosol cooling is expected to decline relative to greenhouse gas forcing| because of the aerosols' much shorter lifetime and the pursuit of a cleaner atmosphere. Strong aerosol cooling in the past and present would then imply that future global warming may proceed at or even above the upper extreme of the range projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 6948,2005,5,4,Structurally novel biomes: A response to past warming in Beringia,At northern high latitudes| biosphere responses to and interactions with climate warming are expected to be significant during the 21st century. Most predictions of climate-biosphere interactions rely on experiments and observations in contemporary landscapes| e.g.| modern distributions of vegetation types and their structural features are used to delimit potential biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. Paleorecords look beyond the present to examine vegetation configurations under climatic regimes that approximate future scenarios. To enhance the knowledge of arctic and subarctic ecosystems under varying climatic conditions| we analyzed pollen and macrofossil data from Beringia (northeast Siberia| Alaska| and northwest Canada; 130 degrees E to 130 degrees W) over the past 21000 years| with a focus on structural and functional features of the vegetation. During the early Holocene (similar to 13 000-10 000 cal yr BP)| shrub tundra ecosystems responded to climate warming through a shift from shrub tundra to deciduous forest or woodland. Early-Holocene vegetation was structurally| and hence functionally| novel compared with today's dominant vegetation types. "Modern" boreal forest developed in the mid-Holocene (similar to 10 000-6000 cal yr BP)| when evergreen conifers expanded in much of the region. The shift from tundra to deciduous forest could have happened rapidly and in situ as the result of individual (phenotypic) and/or population-scale responses to climate warming. Because the structural and functional properties of deciduous forest differ from those of evergreen coniferous forest and tundra| deciduous boreal forest should be included in the range of future scenarios used to assess the probable feedbacks of vegetation to the climatic system that result from global warming at northern high latitudes. 6867,2005,3,2,Studies on life cycle assessment of Sugi lumber,Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an environmental assessment method that has come into wide use. The LCA method has been used to assess the environmental impact of various products from domestic articles like plastic trays to large buildings. However| few LCA studies on domestic lumber have been conducted because of regional and other differences in forestry methods| distribution| etc. In this study| to obtain basic knowledge on the environmental impact of sugi lumber products| we investigated energy consumption| amount of waste| and volume of product in processes from felling to sawmilling. From the obtained data| emissions of environmental load substances were quantified and evaluated by LCA. The main results obtained are as follow: CO2| CO| NOx| and SO2 were emitted in large quantities from the sawmill subprocess. This is probably due to the large electricity consumption of sawmill equipment. The amount Of CO2 emissions depends on the yield of the sawmill and the distance from market of the sawn-till. Therefore| effective means to reduce the CO2 emissions were suggested as follow: the sawmill equipment can be rationalized to improve the yield in sawmill subprocess| and the sawmilling line can be made more highly effective; in addition| it is important to plan construction of sawmills so that the distance from the sawmill to the market will be shortest. Global warming and acidification comprise almost the entire result of the impact assessment of both sawmills. The substances that contributed to global warming and acidification were CO2| NOx| SO2(|) and CH4 and each substance was emitted most in the sawmill subprocess. Overall| this study showed that the sawmill subprocess has the greatest role in the environmental load of lumber products.
1881,2005,2,4,Summary of a workshop on the development of health models and scenarios: Strategies for the future,A workshop was convened in July 2003 by the Global Change Research Program| Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency| to review current strategies for developing human health models and scenarios in the context of global environmental change| particularly global climate change| and to outline a research agenda that effectively characterizes the interplay of global change with the health of human populations. The research agenda developed at the workshop focused on three issues: a) the development of health models| b) the development of health scenarios| and c) the use of health models and health scenarios to inform policy. The agenda identified research gaps as well as barriers to the development and use of models and scenarios. This report summarizes the workshop findings. 1869,2005,4,4,Surface air temperature variability over Turkey and its connection to large-scale upper air circulation via multivariate techniques,The problem of statistical linkages between large-scale and local-scale processes is investigated through noise reduction by singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and spatial principal component analysis in order to construct appropriate statistical models for estimating the local-scale climate variables from large-scale climate processes. This paper presents an approach for downscaling monthly temperature series over Turkey by upper air circulations derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis data sets (500 hPa geopotential heights and 500-1000 hPa thicknesses). The proposed approach consists of three stages. First| the available data sets are separated into deterministic| statistical components and random components by SSA. Second| the deterministic components are saved and the random components are eliminated by spatial principal component analysis. Subsequently| the statistical components are combined with the deterministic components constituting a noise-free data set. Furthermore| so-called Sampson correlation patterns are determined between the noise-free large-scale and the local-scale variables for interpreting the large-scale process impacts on local-scale features. Third| the significant redundancy variates based on canonical correlation analysis are extracted in order to identify the statistical downscaling model for temperature series of 62 stations in Turkey. The results show that the interpretation of the local-scale processes with the noise-free data sets is more significant than with the raw data sets. Copyright (c) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. 1859,2005,3,4,Sustainability-guided promotion of renewable electricity generation,in recent years| the threat of global climate change| high fuel import dependence| and rapidly rising electricity demand levels have intensified the quest for more sustainable energy systems. This in turn has increased the need for policy makers to promote electricity generation from renewable energy sources. Guaranteed prices coupled with a buy-back obligation for electricity fed into the grid is a popular renewables promotion instrument| especially in Europe. More recently| driven mainly by electricity market liberalisation efforts| quota targets for the share of renewables in combination with tradable 'green' certificates (TGC) have received considerable attention. TGC offer a greater theoretical potential for economic efficiency gains| due to price competition and the greater flexibility assigned to the obliged parties. While guaranteed prices and TGC schemes support the operation of renewable energy technology systems| bidding schemes for renewable energy generation capacity are used to raise economic efficiency on the plant construction side. All of these policy instruments suffer from the shortcoming that they do not explicitly account for the often widely varying environmental| social and economic impacts of the technologies concerned. In this paper| we propose a methodology for the design of renewable energy policy instruments that is based on integrated assessment. In particular| we argue that using participatory multicriteria evaluation as part of the design of renewable energy promotion policies would make it possible: (1) to differentiate the level of promotion in a systematic and transparent manner according to their socio-ecological economic impact| and (2) to explicitly account for the preferences of stakeholders. A further problem of existing TGC and bidding schemes is that diversity of supply could be severely diminished| if few low-cost technologies were allowed to dominate the renewable energy market. To ensure a certain diversity of technologies| our scheme suggests the use of different technology bands for technologies that are relatively homogeneous with respect to their maturity. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6850,2005,3,3,Switching to a US hydrogen fuel cell vehicle fleet: The resultant change in emissions| energy use| and greenhouse gases,This study examines the potential change in primary emissions and energy use from replacing the current U.S. fleet of fossil-fuel on-road vehicles (FFOV) with hybrid electric fossil fuel vehicles or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCV). Emissions and energy usage are analyzed for three different HFCV scenarios| with hydrogen produced from: (1) steam reforming of natural gas| (2) electrolysis powered by wind energy| and (3) coal gasification. With the U.S. EPA's National Emission Inventory as the baseline| other emission inventories are created using a life cycle assessment (LCA) of alternative fuel supply chains. For a range of reasonable HFCV efficiencies and methods of producing hydrogen| we find that the replacement of FFOV with HFCV significantly reduces emission associated with air pollution| compared even with a switch to hybrids. All HFCV scenarios decrease net air pollution emission| including nitrogen oxides| volatile organic compounds| particulate matter| ammonia| and carbon monoxide. These reductions are achieved with hydrogen production from either a fossil fuel source such as natural gas or a renewable source such as wind. Furthermore| replacing FFOV with hybrids or HFCV with hydrogen derived from natural gas| wind or coal may reduce the global warming impact of greenhouse gases and particles (measured in carbon dioxide equivalent emission) by 6| 14| 23| and 1%| respectively. Finally| even if HFCV are fueled by a fossil fuel such as natural gas| if no carbon is sequestered during hydrogen production| and 1% of methane in the feedstock gas is leaked to the environment| natural gas HFCV still may achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas and air pollution emission over FFOV. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V. 1882,2005,2,4,Synergistic effects associated with climate change and the development of rocky shore molluscs,Global climate change and ozone layer thinning will simultaneously expose organisms to increasingly stressful conditions. Early life stages of marine organisms| particularly eggs and larvae| are considered most vulnerable to environmental extremes. Here| we exposed encapsulated embryos of three common rocky shore gastropods to simultaneous combinations of ecologically realistic levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR)| water temperature stress and salinity stress to identify potential interactions and associated impacts of climate change. We detected synergistic effects with increases in mortality and retardation in development associated with the most physiologically stressful conditions. The effects of UVR were particularly marked| with mortality increasing up to 12-fold under stressful conditions. Importantly| the complex outcomes observed on applying multiple stressors could not have been predicted from examining environmental variables in isolation. Hence| we are probably dramatically underestimating the ecological impacts of climate change by failing to consider the complex interplay of combinations of environmental variables with organisms. 1849,2005,3,3,Synthesis of industrial utility systems: cost-effective de-carbonisation,The production processes on industrial sites require large amounts of heating| cooling and power for their operation. Therefore| the optimal synthesis of utility systems is of central interest to engineers in the process industries. Recently| the problem of the global climate change has brought forward the question of reducing significantly the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. In this paper| a new approach is presented for cost-effective de-carbonisation of new utility systems in the process industries. This is based on improved models of utility equipment components and an improved model and procedure for optimal synthesis of utility systems. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7063,2005,2,4,Teaching old indices new tricks: A state-space analysis of El Nino related climate indices,State-space models were applied to several climate indices associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and its component sea level pressure series; the NINO3 sea surface temperature index; and the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI). The best models for each series include a significant long-term nonparametric trend combined with a stochastic stationary cyclic term that clearly delineates the El Nino and La Nina events. There is no evidence that the frequency of ENSO events has changed over the 20th century. The long-term trend| however| has contributed to an apparent increase in the magnitude of recent El Nino events. This trend| potentially related to global warming| has increased the level of each series by an amount equal to 30-50% of the amplitude of their corresponding annual cycle or cyclic ENSO term. Thus| the background sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific is more than 0.5 degrees C warmer now than prior to 1950| implying a greater overall impact of El Nino events. 7100,2005,3,4,Technology assessment of thermal treatment technologies using ORWARE,A technology assessment of thermal treatment technologies for wastes was performed in the form of scenarios of chains of technologies. The Swedish assessment tool| ORWARE. was used for the assessment. The scenarios. of chains of thermal technologies assessed were gasification with catalytic combustion. gasification with flame combustion| incineration and landfilling. The landfilling scenario was used as a reference for comparison. The technologies were assessed from ecological and economic points of view. The results are presented in terms of global warming potential. acidification potential. eutrophication potential| consumption of primary energy carriers and welfare costs. From the simulations. gasification followed by catalytic combustion with energy recovery in a combined cycle appeared to be the most competitive technology from an ecological point of view. On the other hand| this alternative was more expensive than incineration. A sensitivity analysis was done regarding electricity prices to show which technology wins at what value of the unit price of electricity (SEK/kWh). Within this study| it was possible to make a comparison both between a combined cycle and a Rankine cycle (a system pair) and at the same time between flame combustion and catalytic combustion (a technology pair). To use gasification just as a treatment technology is not more appealing than incineration. but the possibility of combining gasification with a combined cycle is attractive in terms of electricity production. This research was done in connection with an empirical R&D work on both gasification of waste and catalytic combustion of the gasified waste at the Division of Chemical Technology.| Royal Institute of Technology (KTH)| Sweden. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1870,2005,4,4,Temperature dependence of carbon-13 kinetic isotope effects of importance to global climate change,We report here a theoretical study of the 13C kinetic isotope effect (KIE) and its temperature dependence for the reaction OH + CH4 --> H2O + CH3| the major sink of atmospheric methane in the troposphere. The KIE values at various atmospherically significant temperatures were determined by direct dynamics using variational transition state theory with multidimensional tunneling contributions (VTST/MT). The potential energy surfaces (PESs) were generated by hybrid density functional theory as well as by recently developed doubly hybrid density functional theory methods. Comparisons of our calculated KIEs with experimental data and theoretical values in the literature reveal the critical contributions due to multidimensional tunneling and torsion anharmonicity as well as the critical issue of the choice of internal rotational axis. 7034,2005,4,4,Temperature signal in the underground for climate history reconstruction in Italy,Underground temperature data from height boreholes logged between 1981 and 2000 were studied to infer the climate change in central-northern Italy during the last 250 years. The ground surface temperature history was reconstructed by using the functional space inversion method. A different inverse approach was also used for two temperature sets to obtain the fine details of the most recent surface temperature change. The results were compared with the air temperature recorded since the beginning of the 19th century at meteorological observatories. The analysis puts into evidence that the trend of the temperature change in the western side of the Apennines chain differs from that of the eastern side. Since 1750 the western side shows temperature lower than that of the 1990s| with minimum values in the period 1930-1960| followed by an almost linear increase in the ground surface temperature. Along the eastern side the temperature is always larger than that inferred for the 1970s| with maximum values in the period 1920-1940| which is followed by a sharp temperature decrease. Only since 1970-1980 a local warming phase has started. By combining borehole temperature logs with meteorological surface air temperature records| the pre-observational mean temperature was calculated. The results corroborate the difference of the climatic histories in both sides of the Apennines concerning the ground surface temperatures. It also appears that the recent climatic changes have partly a local origin and can obscure the changes forced by the regional surface air temperature influence. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7206,2005,2,4,Temperature-dependent shift from labile to recalcitrant carbon sources of arctic heterotrophs,Soils of high latitudes store approximately one-third of the global soil carbon pool. Decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) is expected to increase in response to global warming| which is most pronounced in northern latitudes. It is| however| unclear if microorganisms are able to utilize more stable| recalcitrant C pools| when labile soil carbon pools will be depleted due to increasing temperatures. Here we report on an incubation experiment with intact soil cores of a frost-boil tundra ecosystem at three different temperatures (2&DEG; C| 12&DEG; C and 24&DEG; C). In order to assess which fractions of the SOM are available for decomposition at various temperatures| we analyzed the isotopic signature of respired CO2 and of different SOM fractions. The δC-13 values Of CO2 respired were negatively correlated with temperature| indicating the utilization of SOM fractions that were depleted in C-13 at higher temperatures. Chemical fractionation of SOM showed that the water-soluble fraction (presumably the most easily available substrates for microbial respiration) was most enriched in C-13| while the acid-insoluble pool (recalcitrant substrates) was most depleted in C-13. Our results therefore suggest that| at higher temperatures| recalcitrant compounds are preferentially respired by arctic microbes. When the isotopic signatures of respired CO2 of soils which had been incubated at 24&DEG; C were measured at 12&DEG; C| the δC-13 values shifted to values found in soils incubated at 12&DEG; C| indicating the reversible use of more easily available substrates. Analysis of phospholipid fatty acid profiles showed significant differences in microbial community structure at various incubation temperatures indicating that microorganisms with preference for more recalcitrant compounds establish as temperatures increase. In summary our results demonstrate that a large portion of tundra SOM is potentially mineralizable. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 7169,2005,2,4,Temporal stereophotogrammetric analysis of retrogressive thaw slumps on Herschel Island| Yukon territory,The western Canadian Arctic is identified as an area of potentially significant global warming. Thawing permafrost| sea level rise| changing sea ice conditions and increased wave activity will result in accelerated rates of coastal erosion and thermokarst activity in areas of ice-rich permafrost. The Yukon Coastal Plain is widely recognized as one of the most ice-rich and thaw-sensitive areas in the Canadian Arctic. In particular| Herschel Island displays extensive coastal thermokarst. Retrogressive thaw slumps are a common thermokarst landform along the Herschel Island coast that have been increasing in both frequency and extent have in recent years due to increased thawing of massive ground ice and coastal erosion. The volume of sediment and ground ice eroded by retrogressive slump activity and the potential release of climate change related materials like organic carbon| carbon dioxide and methane are largely unknown. The remote setting of Herschel Island| and the Arctic in general| make direct observation of this type of erosion and the analysis of potential climate feedbacks extremely problematic. Remote sensing provides possibly the best solution to this problem. This study looks at two retrogressive thaw slumps located on the western shore of Herschel Island and using stereophotogrammetric methods attempts to (1) develop the first three-dimensional geomorphic analysis of this type of landform| and (2) provide an estimation of the volume of sediment/ground ice eroded through back wasting thermokarst activity. Digital Elevation Models were extracted for the years 1952| 1970 and 2004 and validated using data collected in the field using Kinematic Differential Global Positioning System. Estimates of sediment volumes eroded from retrogressive thaw slumps were found to vary greatly. In one case the total volume of material lost for the 1.970-2004 period was approximately 1560000 m(3). The estimated volume of sediment alone was 360 000 m(3). The temporal analysis of the DEMs suggest that second generation retrogressive thaw slump activity within the floor of a large polycyclic retrogressive thaw slump is possible. 1889,2005,2,4,Terrestrial C sequestration at elevated-CO2 and temperature: The role of dissolved organic N loss,We used a simple model of carbon-nitrogen (C-N) interactions in terrestrial ecosystems to examine the responses to elevated CO2 and to elevated CO2 Plus warming in ecosystems that had the same total nitrogen loss but that differed in the ratio of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) to dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loss. We postulate that DIN losses can be curtailed by higher N demand in response to elevated CO2| but that DON losses cannot. We also examined simulations in which DON losses were held constant| were proportional to the amount of soil organic matter| were proportional to the soil C:N ratio| or were proportional to the rate of decomposition. We found that the mode of N loss made little difference to the short-term (<60 years) rate of carbon sequestration by the ecosystem| but high DON losses resulted in much lower carbon sequestration in the long term than did low DON losses. In the short term| C sequestration was fueled by an internal redistribution of N froth soils to vegetation and by increases in the C:N ratio of soils and vegetation. This sequestration was about three times larger with elevated CO2 and warming than with elevated CO2 alone. After year 60| C sequestration was fueled by a net accumulation of N in the ecosystem| and the rate of sequestration was about the same with elevated CO| and warming as with elevated CO2 alone. With high DON losses| the ecosystem either sequestered C slowly after year 60 (when DON losses were constant or proportional to soil organic matter) or lost C (when DON losses were proportional to the soil C:N ratio or to decomposition). We conclude that changes in long-term C sequestration depend not only on the magnitude of N losses| but also on the form of those losses. 1876,2005,3,3,The Brazilian air transportation sector in the context of global climate change: CO2 emissions and mitigation alternatives,The purpose of this study is to discuss the participation of Brazilian air transportation within the context of global climate change. It first briefly presents an inventory of CO:! emissions caused by airborne activities in Brazil and then shows a trend projection through to 2023| indicating the progress of these emissions| with eight possible mitigation strategies. The abatement potential for each of these strategies is also investigated. It is estimated that joint implementation of all these strategies within a typical projection of broad based sustainability (based on renewable energy sources with fair social.| economic and technological development) could result in an annual reduction in CO2 emissions caused by airborne activities in Brazil up to 28.5% (compared to the trend projection for 2023). It is also estimated that the emissions avoided through joint implementation of the mitigation alternatives analyzed may well reach 82|000 Gg (or 10(9) g) of CO2 from 2003 through 2023. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1809,2005,3,2,The case for carbon capture and storage,Human activity releases approximately 25 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year| building up the levels of greenhouse gases that are responsible for global climate change. The world's forests store about 2 or 3 billion tons of that output annually| and the ocean absorbs 7 billion tons. Itis estimated that another 5 to 10 billion tons| as much as 40% of man-made carbon dioxide| could be removed from the atmosphere and safely stored away. Methods of storage are being researched| for example underground geological storage. Issues of safety and cost and feasibility need to be addressed before the government can push for carbon capture and storage. 1801,2005,4,4,The contribution of sulfuric acid and non-volatile compounds on the growth of freshly formed atmospheric aerosols,The formation of atmospheric aerosol particles ( homogeneous nucleation| forming of stable clusters similar to 1 nm in size)| their subsequent growth to detectable sizes (> 3 nm)| and to the size of cloud condensation nuclei| remains one of the least understood atmospheric processes upon which global climate change critically depends. However| a quantitative model explanation for the growth of freshly formed aerosols has been missing. In this study| we present observations explaining the nucleation mode ( 3 - 25 nm) growth. Aerosol particles typically grow from 3 nm to 60 - 70 nm during a day| while their non-volatile cores grow by 10 - 20 nm as well. The total particle growth rate is 2 - 8 nm/h while the non-volatile core material can explain 20 - 40%. According to our results| sulfuric acid can explain the remainder of the growth| until the particle diameter is around 10 - 20 nm. After that secondary organic compounds significantly take part in growth process. 1847,2005,3,3,The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling,In this paper MARKAL-MACRO| an integrated energy-environment-economy model| is used to generate China's reference scenario for future energy development and carbon emission through the year 2050. The results show that with great efforts on structure adjustment| energy efficiency improvement and energy substitution| China's primary energy consumption is expected to be 4818 Mtce and carbon emission 2394 MtC by 2050 with annual decrease rate of 3% for the carbon intensity per GDP during the period 2000-2050. On the basis of this reference scenario| China's marginal abatement cost curves of carbon for the year 2010| 2020 and 2030 are derived from the model| and the impacts of carbon emission abatement on GDP are also simulated. The results are compared with those from other sources. The research shows that the marginal abatement costs vary from 12USS/tC to 216USS/tC and the rates of GDP losses relative to reference range from 0.1% to 2.54% for the reduction rates between 5% and 45%. Both the marginal abatement costs and the rates of GDP losses further enlarge on condition that the maximum capacity of nuclear power is constrained to 240GW or 160GW by 2050. The paper concludes that China's costs of carbon abatement is rather high in case of carbon emissions are further cut beyond the reference scenario| and China's carbon abatement room is limited due to her coal-dominant energy resource characteristic. As economic development still remains the priority and per capita income as well as per capita carbon emission are far below the world average| it will be more realistic for China to make continuous contribution to combating global climate change by implementing sustainable development strategy domestically and playing an active role in the international carbon mitigation cooperation mechanisms rather than accepting a carbon emission ceiling. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7110,2005,2,4,The effect of landscape and retreating glaciers on wind erosion in south Iceland,The retreat of glaciers in Iceland due to climate warming during the last century has resulted in changed hydrological conditions at glacial margins and in larger sandy areas. Subsequently| aeolian processes have become more active. The aim of this research was to study wind erosion south of Langjokull glacier and the development of encroaching sand| as well as the influence of macro and micro topography on the processes. Automatic instruments and aeolian dust traps were used to monitor wind erosion and to estimate its dependence on surface roughness. Digital elevation model was used to analyse the effect of macro topography on sand encroachment. The study indicates that large quantities of sand have moved southwards from the glacial moraine and drained lakes. The spatial distribution of the sand confirms a dominating aeolian transportation by northerly dry winds. The topography influences wind directions and the flux of aeolian materials. Threshold velocities (wind speed measured at 2m height) ranged from 6.2ms(-1) on level land to 10.7ms(-1) on rough surfaces. Flux can exceed 1000kg m(-1)hr(-1) at 17 m s(-1) wind speed. Slopes exceeding 7 per cent reduce or halt sand movement. Rough surfaces immobilize the aeolian material until accumulated material has leveled the surface| after that the flux continues. The intensified aeolian processes have buried previously vegetated areas and it is likely that continued glacier retreat due to climate warming will cause further land degradation in this area. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley T Sons| Ltd. 7089,2005,4,4,The effect of ocean mixing parametrisation on the enhanced CO(2) response of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet,The use of a more physically based parametrisation scheme for sub-grid scale ocean mixing produces a more spatially uniform surface warming in the Southern Hemisphere in transient global warming simulations of the CCCma climate model than when an older scheme is used. Here we examine the effect of this different warming pattern on the tropospheric circulation response| by comparing simulations of two versions of the model implementing these two mixing parametrisations. It is found that use of either scheme produces a southward shift of the midlatitude jet| but that this shift is considerably smaller when the new parametrisation is implemented. These results suggest that the magnitude of the Southern Annular Mode-like response noted in some global warming simulations may be sensitive to the representation of ocean processes. 6921,2005,2,3,The effects of disseminated methane hydrate on the dynamic stiffness and damping of a sand,Methane hydrates are ice-like compounds that can exist only under restricted thermobaric conditions| at low temperatures or under high ambient pressure. They are important because of their potential contributions as a future source of energy| to global warming| and as a possible trigger for long run-out submarine slope instability. This paper describes laboratory experiments to synthesise disseminated methane hydrates and to characterise them under small-strain dynamic loading in the resonant column apparatus. The effects of depositing varying quantities of methane hydrate within a sand are investigated by reference to their shear and bulk modulus| and damping| over a range of isotropic effective stress. Results are compared with those obtained on the same sand without hydrate bonding and after dissociation. 7038,2005,3,4,The environmental impact of mastitis: a case study of dairy herds,Mastitis is defined as an inflammatory reaction of udder tissue to bacterial| chemical| thermal or mechanical injury| which causes heavy financial losses and milk wastage throughout the world. Until now| studies have focused on the economic aspects from which perspective mastitis can generally be considered as the most serious disease in dairy cows; however| costs are not the only negative consequence resulting from the infection. The environmental impact is also significant; milk is discarded| which means lower efficiency and hence a greater environmental impact per produced liter of milk. Less milk is produced| which leads to an increased need for calf feed| and meat production is also affected. The main aim of this paper was to quantify the environmental impact of mastitis incidence. A standard scenario (representative of present-day reality in Galicia| Spain) and an improved scenario (in which mastitis incidence rate is reduced by diverse actions) have been defined and compared using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. Among the impact categories studied| acidification| eutrophication and global warming were found to be the most significant environmental impacts. In all these categories| it was revealed that a decrease in mastitis incidence has a positive influence as the environmental impact is reduced. Even if the quantitative results cannot show a considerable decrease in the environmental burden| the impact cannot be regarded as negligible when the total consumption or total production of a region is considered. For example| the outcome of the proposed improvement measures for Spain's greenhouse gas emissions can be quantified as 0.06% of total emissions and 0.56% of emissions by the agricultural sector. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7120,2005,3,3,The environmental impacts of the production of concentrated feed: the case of pig feed in Bretagne,Pig production systems often depend to a large extent on concentrated feed imported from outside the farm. This study used the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method to assess major environmental impacts associated with the production and on-farm delivery of concentrated feed for pigs. Feed composition was based on average data for Bretagne (France) in 1998 and on published data for wheat-based| maize-based and co-product based feeds. As crop and feed production practices in Bretagne are similar to those in most of western Europe| we conclude that the results of this study apply more largely for western Europe. Depending on feed composition and fertilisation practise for crop-based feed ingredients| the production and delivery of one kg of feed for finishing pigs will produce a eutrophication potential between 3.8 and 9.3 g PO4-equivalents| a global warming potential between 472 and 792 g CO2-equivalents| an acidification potential between 3.0 and 6.3 g SO2-equivalents| a terrestrial ecotoxicity potential between 0.4 and 8.7 g 1|4-dichlorobenzene-equivalents| an energy use between 3.3 and 6.1 MJ| and land use between 1.44 and 2.07 m(2) year. These impacts are mainly due to the production of crop-based ingredients. The contribution of transport processes was substantial for climate change| acidification and energy use. A feed containing mainly co-products had higher energy use and lower terrestrial ecotoxicity than feeds consisting mainly of non-processed crop-based ingredients. Hypotheses with respect to the fertilisation practices for the feed's main ingredients have a major effect on its impact values. The effect of uncertainty concerning the emissions of N2O| NH3| and NO3 was very large for climate change| and large for acidification and eutrophication. The environmental burdens associated with the production and delivery of pig feed can be decreased by: optimising the fertilisation of its crop based ingredients| using more locally produced feed ingredients| reducing concentrations of Cu and Zn in the feed| and using wheat-based rather than maize-based feeds. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7013,2005,3,4,The FAIR model: A tool to analyse environmental and costs implications of regimes of future commitments,This article describes the policy decision-support tool| FAIR| to assess the environmental and abatement costs implications of international regimes for differentiation of future commitments. The model links long-term climate targets and global reduction objectives with regional emission allowances and abatement costs| accounting for the Kyoto Mechanisms used. FAIR consists of three sub-models: a simple climate model| an emission-allocation model and a cost model. The article also analyses ten different rule-based emission allocation schemes for two long-term concentration stabilisation targets for greenhouse gases. This analysis shows that evaluating regimes requires not only an assessment of the initial allocation| but also of the distribution of abatement costs and the impacts from emissions trading. The Multi-Stage approach (with a gradual increase of Parties adopting emission intensity or reductions targets) and the Triptych approach (with sectoral targets for all Parties) seem to provide the best prospects for most of the Parties when compared to the other allocation schemes analysed. 6915,2005,2,4,The first South Atlantic hurricane: Unprecedented blocking| low shear and climate change,In March 2004 the first-ever reported hurricane in the South Atlantic hit southern Brazil. Here we show that Catarina initiated as an extratropical cyclone in a frontal system| undergoing Tropical Transition two days later under persistent low vertical wind shear over near-average water temperatures. The trajectory derived from an automatic tracking scheme showed a rare loop before the cyclone approached the coast for a second time. The vertical structure presented anticyclonic relative vorticity above and a small 300 hPa warm core embedded in a cold area. A mid-to-high latitude-blocking index showed that the five days before the genesis were in the 0.6% first percentile of intensity considered over the last 25 years| followed by an unprecedented combination with low shear. The observed and predicted trends towards an increasingly positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode in global warming scenarios could favor similar conditions| increasing the probability of more Tropical Cyclones in the South Atlantic. 6904,2005,2,4,The flaw in the thaw,The retreat and disappearance of world glaciers is caused in part by global warming| but precipitation rates| air temperature| cloud cover and El Nino also play a role. 6986,2005,3,3,The hydrogen economy: a threat or an opportunity for lead-acid batteries?,There is mounting concern over the sustainability of global energy supplies. Among the key drivers are: (i) global warming| ocean surface acidification and air pollution| which imply the need to control and reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases| especially emissions from transportation and thermal power stations; (ii) the diminishing reserves of oil and natural gas; (iii) the need for energy security adapted to each country| such as decreasing the dependence on fossil fuel imports (in particular| the vulnerability to volatile oil prices) from regions where there is political or economic instability; (iv) the expected growth in world population with the ever-increasing aspiration for an improved standard-of-living for all| especially in developing and poor nations. Hydrogen is being promoted world-wide as a total panacea for energy problems. As a versatile carrier for storing and transporting energy from any one of a myriad of sources to an electricity generator| it is argued that hydrogen will eventually replace| or at least greatly reduce| the reliance on fossil fuels. Not unexpectedly| the building of a 'hydrogen economy' presents great scientific and technological challenges in production| delivery| storage| conversion| and end-use. In addition| there are many policy| regulatory| economic| financial| investment| environmental and safety questions to be addressed. Notwithstanding these obstacles| it is indeed plausible that hydrogen will become increasingly deployed and will compete with traditional systems of energy storage and supply. Moreover| the case for hydrogen will be greatly strengthened if fuel cells| which are the key enabling technology| become more reliable| more durable| and less expensive. This paper examines the prospects for hydrogen as a universal energy-provider and considers the impact that its introduction might have on the present deployment of lead-acid batteries in mobile| stationary and road transportation applications. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7133,2005,2,2,The impact of climate change on growth of local white spruce populations in Quebec| Canada,In the near future| forest tree species growing in eastern Canada are expected to be affected by climate change due to an increase of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. In this study| models were developed to estimate the impact of climate change on growth in white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss). Data were collected in a genecological test replicated in three locations| and involving 45 distinct geographical seed sources. most of them represented by five open-pollinated families. Transfer models predicting the performance of seed sources were developed| based on temperature and precipitation differentials between the geographical origin of seed sources and die experimental site locations. These models were validated using data collected in a second genecological test series. We found that white spruce populations located within the sampled area were optimally adapted to their local environment for thermal conditions but not for moisture conditions: populations that originated from sites receiving| more precipitation generally showed higher tree growth than the local sources. We predict that the adaptive lag currently related to precipitation will increase under global warming conditions. Simulations of growth under various scenarios of climate change indicated that it would be diminished tangibly under more intense warming. However| for a given temperature increase. the relative loss in growth will be less if precipitation is reduced than if it increases. Consequently| predictions based solely on temperature change appear inaccurate| and more effort should be directed toward better anticipating the magnitude and the direction of changes in precipitation patterns at the regional scale. The necessity of human intervention to assist tree migration under climate change is examined. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6801,2005,2,3,The impact of climate change on hailstorms in southeastern Australia,Data from a number of locations around southeastern Australia were analysed to determine the influence of climate change on the frequency and intensity of hail events in this region. The relationship between Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)| frequently used as a measure of atmospheric instability| and hailstorms was investigated using both NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (a data set comprising a blend of observations and model simulations) and also direct sounding data obtained from the Australian National Climate Centre. Two locations were chosen in southeastern Australia| Mount Gambier and Melbourne| over the months August to October for the period 1980-2001. A statistically significant relationship between hail incidence and CAPE values was established for both NCEP/NCAR and sounding data at both study sites. A stronger relationship was found between hail incidence and the CAPE| which was calculated using NCEP/NCAR data| than that between hail and the CAPE from the actual sounding data. A similar analysis was also conducted at both sites using the totals-totals index (TT index)| which is an alternative measure of atmospheric instability. The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model was used to simulate values of CAPE for Mount Gambier in an environment containing| double the pre-industrial concentrations of equivalent CO|. The results showed a significant decrease in CAPE values in the future. From this| assuming the relationship between CAPE and hail remains unchanged under enhanced greenhouse conditions| it is possible that there will be a decrease in the frequency of hail in southeastern Australia if current rates Of CO2 emission are sustained. The severity of future hail events was investigated using crop-loss data from insurance companies. Strongest correlations were found between the crop-loss ratio (value of crop lost to hail damage over the total insured value of crop) and the number of days in a crop season with a TT index greater than 55. Results from the CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model revealed that there was no significant difference between the number of days with a TT index over 55 for the simulation using current CO| levels and that based on doubled equivalent pre-industrial CO| concentrations (roughly equivalent to 2050 in the chosen emissions scenario). This implies that| for southeastern Australia| crop losses due to hail damage would not significantly increase under enhanced greenhouse conditions. Copyright (c) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. 6990,2005,2,3,The influence of climate science on water management in Western Australia - Lessons for climate scientists,Water flow into dams that supply Perth in Western Australia (WA) has fallen by 50% since the mid-1970s| and this has severely tested water managers. Climate change scenarios available since the 1980s have suggested that global warming will reduce rainfall over southern Australia| including Perth. Water managers recognize the uncertainties associated with the projections| including the significant differences that exist between the timing and magnitude of the observed changes and modeled projections. The information has| nevertheless| influenced their decision making. To understand why| we need to consider the broader environment in which the water managers operate. One key factor is that the imposition of severe water restrictions can lead to significant economic loss and increased unemployment. Prolonged restrictions can therefore create strong debate in the wider community. In recognition of this| state government policy requires that water managers ensure that the chance of having severe restrictions is kept low. Severe restrictions have not been imposed since 1979| but moderate restrictions are more common| and were imposed as recently as 2002. Scrutiny of water management can become intense even after moderate restrictions are imposed| and at these times it is unacceptable to many people if a known risk-even if very uncertain-is perceived to have been ignored in earlier planning. Climate science has established regional drying driven by global warming as a risk| and so global warming has to be addressed in planning. Water managers also need climate science to reassure the public that the restrictions imposed were necessary because of unprecedented changes in rainfall| not because of poor management. In recent years much of the influence that climate science has had on water managers can be attributed to the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI). IOCI is a research partnership between the Western Australia Water Corporation| other state government agencies| and two national meteorological research organizations. Water managers saw their participation in IOCI as one strand of a broader risk management plan. They did not have the luxury of deferring important decision making for certainty that climate science might never bring| but were very interested in what climate science might provide "now." The participation of water managers in IOCI enabled them to influence research planning to better meet their needs. Water managers did not just want predictions or technical explanations of an individual scientist's latest work. They wanted reliable and balanced advice on broader issues| explanations| clarification| realistic expectations| and an appreciation of uncertainty. They wanted climate information related to water management issues in a form relevant to the region. "Localized" information is more suitable for inclusion in their decision making| and of more use to them for both informing| and stimulating discussion within| the wider community. 7031,2005,4,4,The influence of the 11 yr solar cycle on the interannual-centennial climate variability,The monthly sunspot number (SSN) for January 1749-August 2004| the global sea-surface temperature (gmSST) and the regional SSTs in the northern N. Pacific (npSST) and the Nino3.4 (ninoSST) areas for the winters of 1870-2004 are analyzed by a wavelet transform to show their multi-scale nature. On the interdecadal timescales| both gmSST and npSST have similar variation tendencies with that of the intensity and cycle-length of the 11 yr SSN| with slight phase differences. The npSST and ninoSST are often out of phase on the decadal-interdecadal timescales. The ninoSST is predominated by the interannual timescales peaking around 3.8 yr. Moreover. the ninoSST exhibits an apparent 80-90 yr signal that is almost out of phase with that observed in SSN. Numerical experiments using a simple nonlinear system illustrate that the intensity of the seasonal forcing| modulated by the I I yr solar activity| is likely an important factor causing different dominant timescales in regional SSTs. Even a small change in the "solar constant" by 0.04% on the 11 yr timescale may result in a regime change in the response (e.g. SST) with various dominant timescales| including the 77 and 88 yr signals that are similar to those of the "Gleissberg cycle" in observed SSN. The results show that part of the energy of the internal variability of the system is transferred to the forced variability that may have richer timescales than those in the forcing itself due to nonlinear resonance. This suggests that observed interannual-centennial climate signals are not purely internal| but also external because of the existence of the 11 yr solar activity cycle| which has changed the "solar constant" in the past and will continue doing so in the future. It also suggests that if the solar "Gleissberg cycle" is included in the forcing term| the 77 and 88 yr interdecadal signals and their subharmonies on centennial timescales may be more significant than what is shown here| which might have some implication to "global warming" research. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6926,2005,3,3,The life cycle CO2 emission performance of the DOE/NASA-solar power satellite system: A comparison of alternative power generation systems in Japan,Solar power generation and| in particular| space solar power generation seem to be one of the most promising electric power generation technologies for reducing emissions of global warming gases (denoted collectively as CO2 emissions below). Calculating the precise amount of net reduction in CO2 emissions of a solar power system over other alternative power systems requires careful life cycle considerations. For example| emissions from a space solar system must include the emissions from consuming rocket fuel during the launching the satellites| and the emissions from the energy consumed while producing the solar panels. In this paper| we calculate the CO2 emissions observed through the life cycle of a solar|power satellite (SPS). This life cycle consists of the production of rocket fuel and solar panels and the construction of a Rectenna (power receiving antenna)| satellite| and all other equipment listed in the Department of Energy/NASA reference system. The calculation also includes indirect CO2 emissions that occur in various stages of production of these materials. Our baseline scenario shows that the life cycle CO2 emissions for an SPS system per unit of energy generated are almost the same as the emissions for nuclear power systems and are much less than the life cycle emissions for LNG-fired and coal-fired power generation systems. Furthermore| our SPS-Breeder scenario| in which SPSs supply electricity for producing further SPS systems| shows significantly lower CO2 emissions. As electrical power generation constitutes one fourth of Japan's total CO2 emissions| reducing emissions from electric power generation is one of the most important issues on Japan's policy agenda for dealing with global warming. Our findings suggest that the SPS is the most effective alternative power generation technology. 6797,2005,5,3,The link between large igneous province eruptions and mass extinctions,In the past 300 million years| there has been a near-perfect association between extinction events and the eruption of large igneous provinces| but proving the nature of the causal links is far from resolved. The associated environmental changes often include global warming and the development of widespread oxygen-poor conditions in the oceans. This implicates a role for volcanic CO2 emissions| but other perturbations of the global carbon cycle| such as release of methane from gas hydrate reservoirs or shut-down of photosynthesis in the oceans| are probably required to achieve severe green-house warming. The best links between extinction and eruption are seen in the interval from 300 to 150 Ma. With the exception of the Deccan Trap eruptions (65 Ma)| the emplacement of younger volcanic provinces has been generally associated with significant environmental changes but little or no increase in extinction rates above background levels. 1821,2005,2,4,The mystery of masting in trees,This article describes the ecological and economic consequences of masting and discusses what causes seed production to vary so widely. A review of the latest research into proposed mechanisms that govern the synchronous production of seed across geographic areas| and on the uncertain effects of global climate change on ecosystems in which masting plays a crucial role| is presented.
6830,2005,4,4,The NAO| the AO| and global warming: How closely related?,The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the closely related Arctic Oscillation (AO) strongly affect Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures with patterns reported similar to the global warming trend. The NAO and AO were in a positive trend for much of the 1970s and 1980s with historic highs in the early 1990s| and it has been suggested that they contributed significantly to the global warming signal. The trends in standard indices of the AO| NAO| and NH average surface temperature for December-February| 1950-2004| and the associated patterns in surface temperature anomalies are examined. Also analyzed are factors previously identified as relating to the NAO| AO| and their positive trend: North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs)| Indo-Pacific warm pool SSTs| stratospheric circulation| and Eurasian snow cover. Recently| the NAO and AO indices have been decreasing; when these data are included| the overall trends for the past 30 years are weak to nonexistent and are strongly dependent on the choice of start and end date. In clear distinction| the wintertime hemispheric warming trend has been vigorous and consistent throughout the entire period. When considered for the whole hemisphere| the NAO/AO patterns can also be distinguished from the trend pattern. Thus the December-February warming trend may be distinguished from the AO and NAO in terms of the strength| consistency| and pattern of the trend. These results are insensitive to choice of index or dataset. While the NAO and AO may contribute to hemispheric and regional warming for multiyear periods| these differences suggest that the large-scale features of the global warming trend over the last 30 years are unrelated to the AO and NAO. The related factors may also be clearly distinguished| with warm pool SSTs linked to the warming trend| while the others are linked to the NAO and AO. 6768,2005,3,4,The nuclear fuel cycle versus the carbon cycle,Nuclear power provides approximately 17% of the world's electricity. which is equivalent to a reduction in carbon emissions of similar to 0.5 gigatonnes (Gt) of C/yr. This is I modest reduction as compared with global emissions of carbon. similar to 7 Gt C/yr. Most analyses suggest that in order to have a significant and timely impact oil carbon emissions| carbon-free sources. such as nuclear Power| Would have to expand total production of energy by factors of three to tell by 2050. A three-fold increase in nuclear power capacity would result in a projected reduction in carbon emissions of I to 2 Gt C/yr| depending oil the type of carbon-based energy source that is displaced. This three-fold increase utilizing present nuclear technologies would result in 25.000 metric tonnes (I) of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) per year| containing over 200 t Of plutonium. This is compared to a present global inventory of approximately 290|000 1 of SNF and > 1|700 t of Pu. A nuclear weapon call be fashioned from as little as 5 kg of (239)Pu. However| there is considerable technological flexibility in the nuclear fuel cycle. There are three types of nuclear fuel cycles that might be utilized for the increased production of energy: open| closed. or a symbiotic combination of different types of reactor (such as. thermal and fast neutron reactors). The neutron energy spectrum has I significant effect on the fission product yield. and the consumption of long-lived actinides| by fission| is best achieved by fast neutrons. Within each cycle. the volume and composition of the high-level nuclear waste and fissile material depend oil the type of nuclear fuel. the amount of burn-up| the extent of radionuclide separation during reprocessing| and the types of materials used to immobilize different radionuclides. As an example| a (232)Th-based fuel cycle call be used to breed fissile (233)U Will| minimum production Of Pu. In this paper| I will contrast the production of excess carbon in the form of CO| from fossil fuels with the production of plutonium in Uranium-based nuclear fuel cycle. with special emphasis oil the "mineralogical solution" for the "sequestration" of Pit into pyrochlore structure-types. 7123,2005,4,3,The oceanic response to carbon emissions over the next century: investigation using three ocean carbon cycle models,A recent study of coupled atmospheric carbon dioxide and the biosphere (Cox et al.| 2000| Nature| 408| 184- 187) found alarming sensitivity of next- century atmospheric pCO(2) (and hence planetary temperature) to uncertainties in terrestrial processes. Here we investigate whether there is similar sensitivity associated with uncertainties in the behaviour of the ocean carbon cycle. We investigate this important question using three models of the ocean carbon cycle of varying complexity: (1) a new three- box oceanic carbon cycle model; (2) the HILDA multibox model with high vertical resolution at low latitudes; (3) the Hadley Centre ocean general circulation model (HadOCC). These models were used in combination to assess the quantitative significance (to year 2100 pCO(2)) of potential changes to the ocean stimulated by global warming and other anthropogenic activities over the period 2000- 2100. It was found that an increase in sea surface temperature and a decrease in the mixing rate due to stratification give rise to the greatest relative changes in pCO(2)| both being positive feedbacks. We failed to find any comparable large sensitivity due to the ocean. 7148,2005,5,4,The Paleocene-Eocene transition at Mead Stream| New Zealand: a southern Pacific record of early Cenozoic global change,Mead Stream in Marlborough| New Zealand| exposes a spectacular 650-m-thick stratigraphic section of well-bedded micritic limestone| chert| and marl that was deposited on a South Pacific upper continental slope from Late Cretaceous to middle Eocene. The similar to200 in upper Paleocene-lower Eocene succession was examined for its lithology| bulk carbonate carbon isotopes| and assemblages of radiolarians| calcareous nannoplankton and foraminifera| so that it could be placed into a global context. The interval displays several prominent carbon isotope anomalies and is correlated with South Pacific Radiolarian Zones RP5 to RP9 and Calcareous Nannofossil Zones NP6-8 to NP12. Additionally| Planktic Foraminiferal Zones P4 to P6b are identified in uppermost Paleocene and lower Eocene strata. Mead Stream has a near-continuous Paleocene-lower Eocene sediment record| and three globally significant climate events-the late Paleocene carbon isotope maximum (PCIM)| the initial Eocene thermal maximum (IETM)| and the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO)-have obvious expressions. The PCIM is a similar to50-m-thick interval of biosiliceous micritic limestone in which delta(13)C is similar to3%. The lower part contains two organic-rich biosiliceous mudstone units that may represent expansion of an oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) during a global increase in marine biological productivity. The IETM is a similar to4-m-thick interval in which delta(13)C drops below 1.5% in a pattern seen at other locations. The basal 2.4 in is a distinctive recessed marl-rich unit that is defined herein as the Dee Marl. The IETM is marked by a rapid decline in the nannoplankton genus Fasciculithus| short-lived occurrences of Discoaster cf. araneus and Morozovella aequa aequa| and significant radiolarian faunal turnover. Owing to impoverished benthic faunas| the benthic foraminiferal extinction event (BFEE) is poorly defined. The onset of the EECO is marked by a similar to1% negative delta(13)C excursion| a transition from limestone-rich to marl-rich facies| and a marked decrease in radiolarian abundance. Compacted sedimentation rates vary between 1.4-2.7 cm/kyr for upper Paleocene-lower Eocene strata at Mead Stream. Although individual beds with average thickness of similar to10 cm were deposited too fast to directly represent cycles in orbital parameters| time series analysis of bed thicknesses suggests that groups of beds may record Milankovitch-scale periodicity| perhaps with a significant obliquity component. Thus| the relative frequency and thickness of marl and limestone beds in this section is shown to be strongly influenced by climatic changes at a wide range of temporal scales| from suborbital and orbital cycles to aberrant short-term events and long-term trends. Predominance of marl in IETM and EECO intervals indicates that episodes of extreme global warming resulted in reduced oceanic productivity and increased terrestrial discharge in the high-latitude (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6888,2005,4,4,The potential importance of grazing to the fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane in an alpine wetland on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,To assess the impact of livestock grazing on the emission of greenhouse gases from grazed wetlands| we examined biomass growth of plants| CO2 and CH4 fluxes under grazing and non-grazing conditions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau wetland. After the grazing treatment for a period of about 3 months| net ecosystem CO2 uptake and aboveground biomass were significantly smaller| but ecosystem CH4 emissions were remarkably greater| under grazing conditions than under non-grazing conditions. Examination of the gas-transport system showed that the increased CH4 emissions resulted from mainly the increase of conductance in the gas-transport system of the grazed plants. The sum of global warming potential| which was estimated from the measured CO2 and CH4 fluxes| was 5.6- to 11.3-fold higher under grazing conditions than under non-grazing conditions. The results suggest that livestock grazing may increase the global warming potential of the alpine wetlands. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6997,2005,2,4,The proliferation of the toxic cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens following restoration of the largest natural French lake (Lac du Bourget),Lac du Bourget| in the Alps| is the largest natural French lake. Following major restoration programmes during the 1970s and early 1980s| involving massive efforts to reduce nutrient loads and pollution in the lake| the water quality has improved over the past two decades. This can be inferred from the increase in the nitrate: phosphate ratio| the intensification of the "clear-water phase" (i.e. the increase in the water column transparency in spring)| and the reduction in the total phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations. However| blooms of the filamentous| phycoerythrin-rich| non-nitrogen fixing and hepatotoxic cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens have occurred since 1996 and have been maintained subsequently| at least during summer and autumn periods. Nutrients (especially phosphorus) are usually thought to be one of the most important factors responsible for cyanobacterial blooms| and so the question is asked if this bloom is a paradoxical outcome of the restoration programs? Using a large set of data taken from surveys of Lac du Bourget| from the literature| and from recent laboratory experiments| and also using field data for the neighboring Lake Geneva| we propose a realistic scenario to account for the population dynamics of the cyanobacterium and the occurrence and maintenance of the bloom in Lac du Bourget. The characteristics of the lake (high water column stability| deepening of the nutrient-depleted layer during the last decade| a long water residence time)| local conditions (the nutrient load and charge) and global changes (global warming) all had to be taken into account to explain this bloom. We suggest that the success of P. rubescens in Lac du Bourget is probably due to increased transparency and a longer stratified period following (1) the restriction of other phytoplankton species following reduced phosphorus| which has allowed P. rubescens to make use of organic phosphorus to improve its competitiveness; (2) warmer than average winter/spring periods allowing an earlier water stratification and in fine a competitive advantage to P. rubescens; (3) lower than average surface irradiance| which has also given the low-light preferring P. rubescens an advantage. Finally| this study highlights the importance of long-term data sets in attempting to elucidate the global causes of a major ecological problem (such as this cyanobacterial bloom) and impacts with regard to the function and use of freshwater ecosystems. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1802,2005,2,4,The quantitative effects of population density and winter weather on the body condition of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Nova Scotia| Canada,Understanding the underlying mechanisms that cause variation in survival and the reproductive success of animals is essential for predicting variation in population parameters. To gain an understanding of the effects of density and winter weather severity on white-tailed deer| Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann| 1780)| we examined the effects of current-year deer density and cumulative weekly average values for snow depth| rainfall| and the number of degrees below -15 degrees C until the time of death| as well as cumulative effects of density and snow depth over the previous one and two winters| on the body condition of adult females| adult males| and fawns. Model selection using Akaike's Information Criterion and multi-model inference suggested that snow depth was the best predictor of body condition for all three age/sex groups. Winter rainfall was the next most influential predictor for adult females and adult males but was not important in determining fawn body condition. Temperature had the least influence on the body condition of all three age/sex groups. Deer density during the winter of death had minimal effects for all groups and we found no evidence that cumulative multiyear variables influenced body condition. We hypothesize that cohort variation may better explain previous findings showing effects of multiyear variables. A model for estimating the proportion of animals in poor body condition for each age/sex group is presented. 6812,2005,4,2,The radiative signature of upper tropospheric moistening,Climate models predict that the concentration of water vapor in the upper troposphere could double by the end of the century as a result of increases in greenhouse gases. Such moistening plays a key rote in amplifying the rate at which the climate warms in response to anthropogenic activities| but has been difficult to detect because of deficiencies in conventional observing systems. We use satellite measurements to highlight a distinct radiative signature of upper tropospheric moistening over the period 1982 to 2004. The observed moistening is accurately captured by climate model simulations and lends further credence to model projections of future global warming. 7111,2005,2,4,The relative role of winter and spring conditions: linking climate and landscape-scale plant phenology to alpine reindeer body mass,The relative importance of winters harshness and early summer foraging conditions are of prime interest when assessing the effect of global warming on Arctic and mountainous ecosystems. We explored how climate and vegetation onset (satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data) determined individual performance in three reindeer populations (data on 27 814 calves sampled over 11 years). Snow conditions| spring temperatures and topography were the main determinants of the onset of the vegetation. An earlier onset positively affected the body mass of calves born the following autumn| while there was no significant direct negative impact of the previous winter. This study underlines the major impact of winter and spring climatic conditions| determining the spring and summer: food availability| and the subsequent growth of calves among alpine herbivores. 7222,2005,2,4,The response of heterotrophic CO2 flux to soil warming,In a forest ecosystem at steady state| net carbon (C) assimilation by plants and C loss through soil and litter decomposition by heterotrophic organisms are balanced. However| a perturbation to the system| such as increased mean soil temperature| will lead to faster decay| enhancing CO2 release from decomposers| and thus upsetting the balance. Recent in situ experiments have indicated that the stimulation of soil respiration following a step increase in annual average soil temperature declines over time. One possible explanation for this decline may be changes in substrate availability. This hypothesis is examined by using the ecosystem model G'DAY| which simulates C and nitrogen (N) dynamics in plants and soil. We applied the model to observations from a soil-warming experiment in a Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stand by simulating a step increase of soil temperature. The model provided a good qualitative reproduction of the observed reduction of heterotrophic respiration (R-h) under sustained warming. The simulations showed how the combined effects of faster turnover and reduced substrate availability lead to a transient increase of R-h. The simulated annual increase in R-h from soil was 60% in the first year after perturbation but decreased to 30% after a decade. One conclusion from the analysis of the simulations is that R-h can decrease even though the temperature response function for decomposition remains unchanged. G'DAY suggests that acclimation of R-h to soil warming is partly an effect of substrate depletion of labile C pools during the first decade of warming as a result of accelerated rates of mineralization. The response is attributed mainly to changing levels of C in pools with short time constants| reflecting the importance of high-quality soil C fractions. Changes of the structure or physiology of the decomposer community were not invoked. Therefore| it becomes a question of definition whether the simulated dynamics of the declining response of CO2 release to the warming should be named acclimation or seen as a natural part of the system dynamics. 6754,2005,2,3,The response of the Southern Annular Mode| the East Australian Current| and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming,Climate models predict an upward trend of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentration| however the consequential impact of this change on oceanic circulation has not been explored. Here we analyse the outputs of a series of global warming experiments from the CSIRO Mark 3 climate model. We show that although for the zonal wind stress change the maximum is located at approximately 60 degrees S| in terms of the change in surface wind stress curl| the maximum is situated at approximately 48 degrees S. This change in the wind stress curl causes a spin-up of the entire southern midlatitude ocean circulation including a southward strengthening of the subtropical gyres| particularly the East Australia Current (EAC). The intensified EAC generates a warming rate in the Tasman Sea that is the greatest in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) with significant implications for sea level rise. The pan-Southern Ocean scale suggests a broad impact on the marine ecosystem of the entire southern midlatitude ocean. 6854,2005,2,4,The response of westerly jets to thermal driving in a primitive equation model,The structure of westerly jets in a statistically steady state is investigated with both dry and moist models on the sphere. The dry model is forced with an idealized radiative equilibrium temperature profile that consists of a global-scale base profile plus both localized tropical heating and high-latitude cooling. The tropical heating controls the intensity of the subtropical jet| while the high-latitude cooling modulates the meridional width of the extratropical baroclinic zone. The jet structure is analyzed with a large number of dry model runs in which the tropical heating and high-latitude cooling rates are systematically varied. This parameter study shows that| in a regime with weak tropical heating and strong high-latitude cooling| the polar-front jet separates itself from the subtropical jet| forming a double-jet state. In contrast| if the tropical heating rate is greater than a certain value| a strong single jet emerges| indicating that the presence of one or two jets in a statistically steady state is dependent upon the relative values of both the tropical heating and the baroclinic zone width. A set of moist model runs is examined in which the moisture content is systematically varied. For a relatively small moisture content| the circulation prefers a double-jet state. However| for a moisture content that is greater than a certain threshold value| the two jets collapse into a single jet. With the aid of the aforementioned dry model results| an explanation for this nonlinear response exhibited by the moist model is provided. Based on the results of the dry and moist model calculations| this paper discusses various physical interpretations of the circulation responses to global warming presented in the literature. 6949,2005,2,3,The role of halocarbons in the climate change of the troposphere and stratosphere,Releases of halocarbons into the atmosphere over the last 50 years are among the factors that have contributed to changes in the Earth's climate since pre-industrial times. Their individual and collective potential to contribute directly to surface climate change is usually gauged through calculation of their radiative efficiency| radiative forcing| and/or Global Warming Potential (GWP). For those halocarbons that contain chlorine and bromine| indirect effects on temperature via ozone layer depletion represent another way in which these gases affect climate. Further| halocarbons can also affect the temperature in the stratosphere. In this paper| we use a narrow-band radiative transfer model together with a range of climate models to examine the role of these gases on atmospheric temperatures in the stratosphere and troposphere. We evaluate in detail the halocarbon contributions to temperature changes at the tropical tropopause| and find that they have contributed a significant warming of similar to 0.4 K over the last 50 years| dominating the effect of the other well-mixed greenhouse gases at these levels. The fact that observed tropical temperatures have not warmed strongly suggests that other mechanisms may be countering this effect. In a climate model this warming of the tropopause layer is found to lead to a 6% smaller climate sensitivity for halocarbons on a globally averaged basis| compared to that for carbon dioxide changes. Using recent observations together with scenarios we also assess their past and predicted future direct and indirect roles on the evolution of surface temperature. We find that the indirect effect of stratospheric ozone depletion could have offset up to approximately half of the predicted past increases in surface temperature that would otherwise have occurred as a result of the direct effect of halocarbons. However| as ozone will likely recover in the next few decades| a slightly faster rate of warming should be expected from the net effect of halocarbons| and we find that together halocarbons could bring forward next century's expected warming by similar to 20 years if future emissions projections are realized. In both the troposphere and stratosphere CFC-12 contributes most to the past temperature changes and the emissions projection considered suggest that HFC-134a could contribute most of the warming over the coming century. 1806,2005,3,4,The role of plants and land management in sequestering soil carbon in temperate arable and grassland ecosystems,Global climate change and concerns about soil quality have led to a widespread interest in the opportunities that are available to sequester carbon in soils. To achieve a better understanding of the changes in C storage| we need to be able to accurately measure and model inputs and losses of C from soils. This in turn requires a thorough understanding of the biological processes involved and the way in which they are influenced by the soil's physical and chemical environment. The amount of C present in a soil is determined by the difference between C addition and C loss. Because these fluxes are large relative to changes in C storage| net storage can be very difficult to measure| particularly in the short term. Carbon is added to soil from plant and animal materials deposited on the soil surface. It is known that approximately 50% of C assimilated by young plants can be transferred below ground; some is used for root construction and maintenance as well as root respiration; some organic C is lost to the soil through exudation and root turnover. A comparison of eight studies has shown that the input to the soil of root derived organic C during a growing season can range between 0.1 and 2.8 t C ha(-1). Quantifying inputs from different processes has proved difficult and the relative importance of exudation and root death under field conditions remains uncertain. The chemical composition of substrates released by exudation and root death is known to be very different. Exudates contain high concentrations of soluble organic substrates and as a consequence are highly labile| whereas additions of C from root death have structural organic substrates with lower potential decomposition rates. Losses of C from soil occur as a consequence of plant and microbial respiration. However| identifying the source of evolved CO2| whether it be from root or microbial respiration| is much more difficult. Some new methods using isotopic labelling and pool dilution have been developed to separate plant and microbial respiration| and despite difficulties| these promise to provide valuable information on the processes of C input and loss from soils.At a field scale measurements and models would suggest that soil and crop management can play a significant role in determining the extent of C sequestration by soils and the proportion of labile C present. A comparison of 11 field studies showed that soil respiration varies between 4 and 26 t C ha(-1) year(-1)| with management such as tillage| drainage| grazing and manure application exerting a strong influence on the magnitude of fluxes. Net ecosystem exchange of C has been shown to be at least an order of magnitude lower than respiratory losses in comparable studies| but land management is important in determining the direction and magnitude of the C flux. Recent studies have suggested that although the overall quantity of C stored in European soils is increasing| this increase is confined largely to forested areas and that many cropped soils are losing soil organic matter. It is has been suggested that that the biological potential for C storage in European cropland lies between 9 and 120 Mt C year(-1). In order to take advantage of this potential and to develop management systems that promote C storage we need to achieve a better understanding of the processes of C input and loss| and develop improved models using pools that coincide with measurable soil C fractions. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1812,2005,3,2,The science| politics and economics of global climate change: Implications for the carbon sink projects,We live at a time when the global climate is experiencing unprecedented changes. The realization that anthropogenically emitted greenhouse gases (GHGs) caused these changes led to protracted international negotiations resulting in the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. These negotia- tions were marred by political and economic overtones and the science of climate change was largely sidelined by the US| the single largest GHG emitter which eventually withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in 2001. With Russia finally ratifying it| the Protocol came into force on 16 February 2005. The Kyoto Protocol fixes legally binding quantified emissions limitation and reduction com- mitments (QELRCs) on the industrialized countries| while exempting the developing and the least developed countries from any emission restrictions. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a market instrument under the Kyoto Protocol to help the industrialized countries meet their QERLCs cost effectively while developing countries can also benefit. The implications of CDM for carbon sink projects in the country are briefly discussed. 6818,2005,2,3,The simulated response of dimethylsulfide production in the Arctic Ocean to global warming,Sulfate aerosols (of both biogenic and anthropogenic origin) play a key role in the Earth's radiation balance both directly through scattering and absorption of solar and terrestrial radiation| and indirectly by modifying cloud microphysical properties. However| the uncertainties associated with radiative forcing of climate due to aerosols substantially exceed those associated with the greenhouse gases. The major source of sulfate aerosols in the remote marine atmosphere is the biogenic compound dimethylsulfide (DMS)| which is ubiquitous in the world's oceans and is synthesized by plankton. Climate models point to significant future changes in sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean due to warming. This will have consequences for primary production and the sea-to-air flux of a number of biogenic compounds| including DMS. In this paper we discuss the impact of warming on the future production of DMS in the Arctic Ocean. A DMS production model has been calibrated to current climate conditions with satellite ocean colour data (SeaWiFS) using a genetic algorithm| an efficient non-derivative based optimization technique. We use the CSIRO Mk 2 climate model to force the DMS model under enhanced greenhouse climate conditions. We discuss the simulated change in DMS flux and its consequences for future aerosol production and the radiative budget of the Arctic. Significant decreases in sea-ice cover (by 18.5% annually and 61% in summer-autumn)| increases in mean annual sea surface temperature of 1 degrees C| and a decrease of mixed layer depth by 13% annually are predicted to result in annual DMS flux increases of over 80% by the time of equivalent CO2 tripling (2080). Estimates of the impact of this increase in DMS emissions suggest significant changes to summer aerosol concentrations and the radiative balance in the Arctic region. 6931,2005,3,3,The study on density change of carbon dioxide seawater solution at high pressure and low temperature,It has been widely considered that the global warming| induced by the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere| is an environmental task affecting the world economic development. In order to mitigate the concentration Of CO2 in the atmosphere| the sequestration of carbon dioxide into the ocean had been investigated theoretically and experimentally over the last 10 years. In addition to ocean dynamics| ocean geological| and biological information on large space and long time scales| the physical-chemistry properties of seawater-carbon dioxide system at high pressure (P > 5.0 MPa) and lower temperature (274.15 K < T < 280.15 K) (the deep ocean environment) is very important for both fundamental and engineering investigations. The density of carbon dioxide seawater solution is one of the key physical properties| which is an indispensable property for numerically estimating the dynamic evolution of carbon dioxide enriched seawater plume. In this study| the density of carbon dioxide seawater solution was measured by applying Mach-Zehnder Interferometry to a visible high-pressure vessel experimental system. The preliminary experimental results reveal that (1) the density of carbon dioxide seawater solution increases with the increase of mass fraction of carbon dioxide in its seawater solution at a pressure ranging from 4.0 to 12.0 MPa and temperatures of 276.15 and 283.15 K; (2) the density deference between carbon dioxide seawater solution and pure seawater is linearly proportional to the mass fraction of carbon dioxide and independent on pressure| temperature| and salinity; (3) the slope of this linear function of density deference with respect to carbon dioxide mass fraction is 0.273 g/cm(3)| which is approximately same with that of carbon dioxide freshwater solution| the slope of which is 0.275 g/cm(3) (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 6776,2005,5,4,The timing of paleoenvironmental change and cause-and-effect relationships during the early Jurassic mass extinction in Europe,The early Jurassic marine mass extinction is one of several crises thought to coincide with anoxia| transgression and warming caused by catastrophic release of gas hydrates. However| high-resolution study of expanded sections in Yorkshire| England| reveal that only the first of these factors is truly coincidental with extinction. The well known transgression and large| negative carbon isotope perturbation| attributed to massive release of methane from gas hydrates| occur after these events. The anoxic event is developed diachronously in the European area| with anoxia developing and fading away earlier in the Mediterranean region compared with the NW European record. However| for a brief interval (in the mid semicelatuin Subzone)| anoxia was simultaneously developed throughout the European region and it is this time that is marked by extinction of both benthic and pelagic marine fossils. The sea-level curve is also more complex than hitherto assumed| with a minor regression occurring late in the semicelatum Subzone| shortly after the extinction. The Toarcian crisis occurred during a phase of global warming| but the postulated release of methane from gas hydrates is too late to be implicated in the extinction mechanism as indeed is a recently reported cooling event from within the warming trend. 7208,2005,4,4,The transient layer: Implications for geocryology and climate-change science,Research treating permafrost-climate interactions is traditionally based on a two-layer conceptual model involving a seasonally frozen active layer and underlying perennially frozen materials. This conceptualization is inadequate to explain the behaviour of the active-layer/permafrost system over long periods| particularly in ice-rich terrain. Recent research in North America supports earlier Russian conclusions about the existence of a transition Zone that alternates in status between seasonally frozen ground and permafrost over sub-decadal to centennial time scales. The transition zone is ice-enriched| and functions as a buffer between the active layer and long-term permafrost by increasing the latent heat required for thaw. The existence of the transition zone has an impact on the formation of a cryogenic soil structure| and imparts stability to permafrost under low-amplitude or random climatic fluctuations. Despite its importance| the transition zone has been the focus of relatively little research. The impacts of possible global warming in permafrost regions cannot be understood fully without consideration of a more realistic three-layer model. The extensive data set under development within the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program will provide a significant source of information about the development| characteristics| behaviour| and extent of the transition zone. This paper is focused on the uppermost part of the transition zone| which joins the active layer at sub-decadal to multi-centennial time scales. This upper part of the transition zone is known as the transient layer. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley R Sons| Ltd. 7020,2005,4,4,The vertical structure of ocean heat transport,One of the most important contributions the ocean makes to Earth's climate is through its poleward heat transport: about 1.5 PW or more than 30% of that accomplished by the ocean-atmosphere system (Trenberth and Caron| 2001). Recently| concern has arisen over whether global warming could affect this heat transport ( Watson et al.| 2001)| for example| reducing high latitude convection and triggering a collapse of the deep overturning circulation (Rahmstorf| 1995). While the consequences of abrupt changes in oceanic circulation should be of concern| we argue that the attention devoted to deep circulations is disproportionate to their role in heat transport. For this purpose| we introduce a heat function which identifies the contribution to the heat transport by different components of the oceanic circulation. A new view of the ocean emerges in which a shallow surface intensified circulation dominates the poleward heat transport. 6841,2005,2,4,Theory and performance of an infrared heater for ecosystem warming,In order to study the likely effects of global warming on future ecosystems| a method for applying a heating treatment to open-field plant canopies (i.e. a temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) system) is needed which will warm vegetation as expected by the future climate. One method which shows promise is infrared heating| but a theory of operation is needed for predicting the performance of infrared heaters. Therefore| a theoretical equation was derived to predict the thermal radiation power required to warm a plant canopy per degree rise in temperature per unit of heated land area. Another equation was derived to predict the thermal radiation efficiency of an incoloy rod infrared heater as a function of wind speed. An actual infrared heater system was also assembled which utilized two infrared thermometers to measure the temperature of a heated plot and that of an adjacent reference plot and which used proportional-integrative-derivative control of the heater to maintain a constant temperature difference between the two plots. Provided that it was not operated too high above the canopy| the heater system was able to maintain a constant set-point difference very well. Furthermore| there was good agreement between the measured and theoretical unit thermal radiation power requirements when tested on a Sudan grass (Sorghum vulgare) canopy. One problem that has been identified for infrared heating of experimental plots is that the vapor pressure gradients (VPGs) from inside the leaves to the air outside would not be the same as would be expected if the warming were performed by heating the air everywhere (i.e. by global warming). Therefore| a theoretical equation was derived to compute how much water an infrared-warmed plant would lose in normal air compared with what it would have lost in air which had been warmed at constant relative humidity| as is predicted with global warming. On an hourly or daily basis| it proposed that this amount of water could be added back to plants using a drip irrigation system as a first-order correction to this VPG problem. 6978,2005,3,4,Thermodynamic modeling of refrigerants using the statistical associating fluid theory with variable range. 2. Applications to binary mixtures,An ever increasing concern on the stratospheric ozone depletion has led to a worldwide ban on fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and prompted a rigorous search for alternative refrigerants with a zero ozone-depletion potential (ODP) and a low global warming potential (GWP). Accurate thermodynamic information is required to develop an optimum alternative to replace an existing CFC pure fluid or mixture. In this work| statistical associating fluid theory with variable range (SAFT-VR) is used to correlate the vapor liquid equilibria (VLE) and the vapor-liquid-liquid equilibria (VLLE) for various refrigerant mixtures. An analysis on the pure component parameters for pentane was performed due to the existence of multiple parameter sets using SAFT-VR. The effects of the pure component parameters in mixture phase predictions were investigated. An optimized binary interaction parameter (k(ij)) value was used to correlate the experimental data. It was found that the mixture phase predictions were sensitive to the adjusted k(ij) value in such a way that fundamental changes in the phase diagram can occur with a small change in the kij value. Hence| an attempt was made to model new refrigerant mixture blends by transferring the k(ij) value to similar mixtures. The good agreement of the predictions made using the transferred k(ij) value and the experimental data aids in suggesting new alternative refrigerant blends. 7116,2005,2,4,Thermohaline circulation stability: A box model study. Part I: Uncoupled model,A thorough analysis of the stability of the uncoupled Rooth interhemispheric three-box model of thermohaline circulation (THC) is presented. The model consists of a northern high-latitude box| a tropical box| and a southern high-latitude box| which correspond to the northern| tropical| and southern Atlantic Ocean| respectively. Restoring boundary conditions are adopted for the temperature variables| and flux boundary conditions are adopted for the salinity variables. This paper examines how the strength of THC changes when the system undergoes forcings that are analogous to those of global warming conditions by applying the equilibrium state perturbations to the moisture and heat fluxes into the three boxes. In each class of experiments| using suitably defined metrics| the authors determine the boundary dividing the set of forcing scenarios that lead the system to equilibria characterized by a THC pattern similar to the present one from those that drive the system to equilibria with a reversed THC. Fast increases in the moisture flux into the northern high-latitude box are more effective than slow increases in leading the THC to a breakdown| while the increases of moisture flux into the southern high-latitude box strongly inhibit the breakdown and can prevent it. as in the case of slow increases in the Northern Hemisphere. High rates of heat flux increase in the Northern Hemisphere destabilize the system more effectively than low ones increases in the heat fluxes in the Southern Hemisphere tend to stabilize the system. 7117,2005,4,4,Thermohaline circulation stability: A box model study. Part II: Coupled atmosphere-ocean model,A thorough analysis of the stability of a coupled version of an interhemispheric three-box model of thermohaline circulation (THC) is presented. This study follows a similarly structured analysis of an uncoupled version of the same model presented in Part I of this paper. The model consists of a northern high-latitude box| A tropical box| and a southern high-latitude box| which can be thought of as corresponding to the northern| tropical| and southern Atlantic Ocean| respectively. This paper examines how the strength of THC changes when the system undergoes forcings; representing global warming conditions. Since a coupled model is used| a direct representation of the radiative forcing is possible because the main atmospheric physical processes responsible for freshwater and heat fluxes are formulated separately. Each perturbation to the initial equilibrium is characterized by the total radiative forcing realized| by the rate of increase| and by the north-south asymmetry. Although only weakly asymmetric or symmetric radiative forcings are representative of physically reasonable conditions| general asymmetric forcings are considered in order to get a more complete picture of the mathematical properties of the system. The choice of suitably defined metrics makes it possible to determine the boundary dividing the set of radiative forcing scenarios that lead the system to equilibria characterized by a THC pattern similar to the present one| from those that drive the system to equilibria where the THC is reversed. This paper also considers different choices for the atmospheric transport parameterizations and for the ratio between the high-latitude and tropical radiative forcing. It is generally found that fast forcings are more effective than slow forcings in disrupting the present THC pattern| forcings that are stronger in the northern box are also more effective in destabilizing the system| and very slow forcings do not destabilize the system whatever their asymmetry| unless the radiative forcings are very asymmetric and the atmospheric transport is a relatively weak function of the meridional temperature gradient. In this latter case some relevant hysteresis graphs of the system are presented. The changes in the strength of the THC are primarily forced by changes in the latent heat transport in the hemisphere because of its sensitivity to temperature| which arises from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. 6900,2005,5,4,Tide| morphology| litho-facies| zonation and evolution of a middle Holocene to present estuary - Meghna| in South Central Bangladesh,The present study on tide| morphology| lithofacies and evolution of the Meghna estuary is confined to its Hizla-Goshairhat-Damudhya-Burirhat (HGDB) branch which represents the relict main channel of the Meghna-Padma river system. Tide in this HGDB branch is semi-diurnal showing daily| monthly and yearly time versus water level asymmetry. This branch is at present microtidal in nature having tidal range in between 0.41-1.78 m| though mean water level varies from 0.87-5.18 in above average mean sea level. Geomorphologically the study area is divided into estuarine plain in south and deltaic plain in north with estuarine channel in between. The 3 in high bank cliff section of the 26 km long estuarine channel at 32 sites recognizes seven litho-facies. The litho-facies-finely laminated sand and silt (facies A)| finely laminated silt and clay (facies B)| laminated sand-clay (sub-facies C-1)| alternating clay and organic matter (facies D) and rippled laminated sand (facies G) are tide generated. Crudely laminated to massive clay (facies E) and clay with ripple laminated silt and sand (facies F) are interdistributary bay/swamp and deltaic plain deposits respectively. Sub-facies C-2 (massive sand) and some ripples within facies B and G are storm/flood and wave influenced deposits respectively. The morphological straight- meander- straight divisions of the HGDB estuarine reach can be zoned as funnel- meander- head on the basis of channel morphology| sedimentary structure| facies and sand+silt:clay ratio of sedimentary succession. Rhythmic occurrence of sand-silt| silt-clay and clay-organic matter with sedimentary structures of parallel- and wavy-lamination along with occasional lenticular-| flaser-| and bi-directional cross-lamination and plained off ripples of facies A| B| D and sub- facies C| are tide generated. Some ripples in facies B and G and sub-facies C| are wave and storm/flood generated. These laterally change to massive to crudely laminated clay with minor amount of rippled sand and silt embedded with soil peds and root traces of delta originated facies E and F in headward direction and vertically up the succession. This is a well-recognized geologically predictable spatial variation when estuary is linked up with delta in landward direction and when delta progrades down the estuary with time. The relative influence of tide (facies A| B| D and sub-facies C-1)| wave (part of facies B and G and sub-facies C-2) and river (deltaic facies E and F) is well reflected in this zonation. The facies A| B| C and D were deposited in an estuarine environmental set up that was established in the study area immediately after the mid-Holocene 7000-5000 years BP marine transgression. The Ganges delta was shaped and started progradation towards southeast direction probably after the late Holocene sea level fall at around 3000 years BP when the Bhagirathi| now in West Bengal| shifted toward east through Mathabhang| Bhairab-Pushar| Garai-Madhumati-Haringhata| Arial Khan to Padma| the new main branch of the Ganges in Bangladesh. The Padma might have met the old Meghna at around 1110 +/- 90 years BP and facies E and F deposited in a deltaic environment at a later time when the Ganges delta prograded to the present position. Facies G is a tidal bar deposit within the present estuarine channel. The Ganges delta is still prograding southeastward| but at a much reduced rate due to present trend of global warming initiating a new sea level rise. 6927,2005,2,4,Tolerances to diurnally varying temperature for three species of adult aquatic insects from New Zealand,Adult survival is thought to bean important factor regulating the size of aquatic insect populations| yet very little is known about the factors that cause mortality during the adult stage. Percentage mortalities over varying time intervals and 96-h lethal temperature values (96-h(dmax) LT50) were calculated for the adults of the common New Zealand caddisfly Hydrobiosis parumbripennis McFarlane (Hydrobiosidae) and stonefly Zelandoperla decorata Tillyard (Gripopterygidae)| and 48-h(dmax) LT50 values were calculated for the leptophlebiid mayfly Acanthophlebia cruentata (Hudson) using an amplitude of diurnally varying temperature regimens within and outside the insect's normal environmental range. Maxima ranged from 18 to 40 degrees C and amplitude varied from 6 to 18 degrees C. Mortality of adult mayflies and caddisflies were consistently higher than that of stoneflies for all comparable diurnal temperature trials. Daily temperature maxima were more important than the diurnal range in regulating mortality| with a rapidly increasing mortality as temperature maxima exceeded 24 (Acanthophlebia) or 30 degrees C (H. parumbripennis and Z. decorata). Interpolated LT50 values for diurnally varying air temperature regimens were similar to 31-33 degrees C for adult H. parumbripennis and Z. decorata and similar to 28-29 degrees C for Acanthophlebia adults. The LT50 value for Z. decorata based on diurnally varying air temperature regimens was approximate to 10 degrees C higher than that for constant temperature regimens. These findings have potential implications for managing riparian zones alongside streams and also for predicting the impacts of global warming on aquatic insect distributions. 7189,2005,4,3,Total solar irradiance and climate,The solar radiation is the fundamental source of energy that drives the Earth's climate and sustains life. The variability of this output certainly affects our planet. In the last two decades an enormous advance in the understanding of the variability of the solar irradiance has been achieved. Space-based measurements indicate that the total solar irradiance changes at various time scales| from minutes to the solar cycle. Climate models show that total solar irradiance variations can account for a considerable part of the temperature variation of the Earth's atmosphere in the pre-industrial era. During the 20th century its relative influence on the temperature changes has descended considerably. This means that other sources of solar activity as well as internal and man-made causes are contributing to the Earth's temperature variability| particularly the former in the 20th century. Some very challenging questions concerning total solar irradiance variations and climate have been raised: are total solar irradiance variations from cycle to cycle well represented by sunspot and facular changes? Does total solar irradiance variations always parallel the solar activity cycle? Is there a long-term variation of the total solar irradiance| and closely related to this| is the total solar irradiance output of the quiet sun constant? If there is not a long-term trend of total solar irradiance variations| then we need amplifying mechanisms of total solar irradiance to account for the good correlations found between total solar irradiance and climate. The latter because the observed total solar irradiance changes are inconsequential when introduced in present climate models. (c) 2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1783,2005,4,4,Trace metal analysis in arctic aerosols by an inductively coupled plasma-time of flight-mass spectrometer combined with an inductively heated vaporizer,Two newly developed instruments were combined to analyze the trace metal content in size separated arctic aerosols during the measurement campaign ASTAR 2004 (Arctic Study of Tropospheric Aerosols| Clouds and Radiation 2004) at Spitsbergen in May-June 2004. The aim of this extensive aerosol measurement campaign was to obtain a database for model-calculations of arctic aerosol| which play an important role in the global climate change. The ASTAR project was centered on two aircraft measurement campaigns| scheduled from 2004 to 2005| addressing both aerosol and cloud measurements| combined with ground-based and satellite observations. In the present paper one example for the analysis of ground-based aerosol particles is described. The sampling of aerosol particles was performed in a well-known manner by impaction of the particles on cleaned graphite targets. By means of a cascade impactor eight size classes between 0.35 and 16.6 mu m aerodynamic diameters were separated. To analyze the metal content in the aerosol particles the targets were rapidly heated up to 2700 degrees C in an inductively heated vaporizer system (IHVS). An argon flow transports the vaporized sample material into the inductively coupled plasma (ICP) used as ionization source for the time of flight-mass spectrometer (TOF-MS). The simultaneous extraction of the ions from the plasma| as realized in the TOF instrument| allows to obtain the full mass spectrum of the sample during the vaporization pulse without any limitation in the number of elements detected. With optimized experimental parameters the element content in arctic aerosol particles was determined in a mass range between Li-7 and Bi-209. Comparing the size distribution of the elemental content of the aerosol particles| two different meteorological situations were verified. For calibration acidified reference solutions were placed on the cleaned target inside the IHVS. The limits of detection (LOD) for the element mass on the target range between 2 and 200 pg for the elements studied| except Na| Mg| and Cr| which are influenced by high background. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6971,2005,3,4,trans-1|2-dichloroethylene as an additive for HFC-134a foam systems,HFC-134a has been used as a zero ozone depletion potential (ODP) alternative for HCFC-141b in polyurethane foam applications. Between two major categories of zero ODP alternatives| hydrocarbons and HFCs| HFC-134a offers some advantages. It is nonflammable| widely available| and it is less expensive than other HFCs. It is an ideal choice for foam applications where nonflammability| volatile organic compounds (VOCs)| and blowing agent costs are major issues. Yet| HFC-134a suffers from one significant drawback - it has limited solubility in polyurethane raw materials| such as polyols. Although the issue can be alleviated by careful selection of polyols and use of coblowing agents| such as water| there is a need to further improve the system. trans-1|2-Dichloroethylene (TDCE) is a liquid at room temperature (b.p. 48 degrees C). It has no ozone depletion potential(1) (ODP)| and it has very low global warming potential (GWT) because it has very short atmospheric lifetime. Previously| we found that the addition of TDCE in HFCs-based urethane foam formulations significantly improved the fire performance. In this study| we evaluated the effect of TDCE on the vapor pressure of several HFC-134a-polyol combinations. The results show that the presence of TDCE can reduce the vapor pressure of certain HFC-134a-polyol blends. More importantly| the presence of TDCE allows one to reduce the levels of HFC-134| significantly reducing the overall vapor pressure of HFC-134a-containing systems. Finally| the presence of TDCE can dramatically reduce the viscosity of HFC-134a-polyols blends| which is important for some applications. 7232,2005,3,4,trans-1|2-dichloroethylene for improving fire performance of urethane foam,In the United States| HCFC-141b was phased out of urethane foam applications on January 1| 2003. Zero ozone depletion potential (ODP) alternatives| such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrocarbons (normal pentane| isopentane| and cyclopentane)| have been introduced to replace HCFC-141b. However| none of these alternatives can match the performance of HCFC-141b in terms of handling| economics| and overall final product performance. In particular| the fire performance of hydrocarbons-based foams cannot reach the performance previously achieved with HCFC-141b. trans-1|2-Dichloroethylene is a liquid at room temperature (b.p. 48degreesC). It does not deplete the ozone layer| and it has very low global warming potential (GWP) because it has very short atmospheric lifetime. We have recently reported that when trans-1|2-dichloroethylene is used in urethane foams with hydrocarbons| it could improve the fire performance of the foams| based on a small-scale fire test (Mobil 45). In this paper| we report physical properties of hydrocarbons/traps-1|2-dichloroethylene foams| such as dimensional stability and compressive strength. We have also extended our studies of the use of traps-1|2-dichloroethylene| and report on the fire performance of HFC-blown urethane foams incorporating trans-1|2-dichloroethylene. 6810,2005,5,4,Transient floral change and rapid global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary,Rapid global warming of 5 degrees to 10 degrees C during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) coincided with major turnover in vertebrate faunas| but previous studies have found little floral change. Plant fossils discovered in Wyoming| United States| show that PETM floras were a mixture of native and migrant lineages and that plant range shifts were large and rapid (occurring within 10|000 years). Floral composition and leaf shape and size suggest that climate warmed by similar to 5 degrees C during the PETM and that precipitation was low early in the event and increased later. Floral response to warming and/or increased atmospheric CO2 during the PETM was comparable in rate and magnitude to that seen in postglaciat floras and to the predicted effects of anthropogenic carbon release and climate change on future vegetation. 1896,2005,2,4,Transient future climate over the western United States using a regional climate model,Regional climate models (RCMs) have improved our understanding of the effects of global climate change on specific regions. The need for realistic forcing has led to the use of fully coupled global climate models (GCMs) to produce boundary conditions for RCMs. The advantages of using fully coupled GCM output is that the global-scale interactions of all components of the climate system ( ocean| sea ice| land surface| and atmosphere) are considered. This study uses an RCM| driven by a fully coupled GCM| to examine the climate of a region centered over California for the time periods 1980 - 99 and 2080 - 99. Statistically significant increases in mean monthly temperatures by up to 7 degrees C are found for the entire state. Large changes in precipitation occur in northern California in February ( increase of up to 4 mm day(-1) or 30%) and March ( decrease of up to 3 mm day(-1) or 25%). However| in most months| precipitation changes between the cases were not statistically significant. Statistically significant decreases in snow accumulation of over 100 mm (50%) occur in some months. Temperature increases lead to decreases in snow accumulation that impact the hydrologic budget by shifting spring and summer runoff into the winter months| reinforcing results of other studies that used different models and driving conditions. 6823,2005,2,3,Tree growth response to climate change at the deciduous-boreal forest ecotone| Ontario| Canada,We consider the implications of climate change on the future of the three dominant forest species| sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.)| white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss)| and balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.)| at the deciduous-boreal forest ecotone| Ontario| Canada. Our analysis is based on individual species responses to past monthly temperature and precipitation conditions in light of modeled (general circulation model) monthly temperature and precipitation conditions in the study area for the 2080s. We then consider the tree species sensitivity to past climate with predicted conditions for the 2080 period. Sugar maple| located at its northern limit in the study area| shows the greatest potential for increased growth rates under the predicted warming and altered precipitation regime. White spruce is likely to benefit less| while the understory dominant balsam fir is likely to experience a decrease in growth potential. These projected changes would enhance the future status of sugar maple at its northern limit and facilitate range expansion northward in response to global warming. 7219,2005,4,4,Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research,The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series| like trends| is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First| a stochastic fractional ARIMA model| which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations| is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step| wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally| a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend. 1852,2005,5,4,Trends in twentieth-century tree growth at high elevations in the Sierra Nevada and White Mountains| USA,We analysed a multispecies tree-ring data base to assess the degree to which twentieth-century growth trends reflect tree growth of the last millennium. We examined similar to 1000-yr chronologies for five species of high-elevation conifers at 13 sites in western North America. Using non-parametric ordination and cluster analysis| we decomposed the variability at annual to decadal timescales into two dimensions| both of which are significantly correlated to temperature and precipitation variation. Tree-ring sites map onto the ordination axes according to species and relative position on the landscape. A spectral analysis of the ordination axes indicates a secular trend and significant quasi-periodic variation on scales of years to decades. Further| we find that the pattern of high-elevation conifer growth rates during the last half of the twentieth century are different than any time in the past 1000 years| indicating a distinct biological signature of global climate change. 7154,2005,3,3,Tropospheric ozone and aerosols in climate agreements: scientific and political challenges,In addition to the six greenhouse gases included in the Kyoto Protocol| the tropospheric ozone precursors CO NMVOC and NO(x) and the aerosols/aerosol precursors black carbon| organic carbon and SO(2) also play significant roles in climate change. The aim of this paper is to review some of the main scientific and political challenges associated with incorporating tropospheric ozone and aerosol precursors into climate agreements| and to discuss how these challenges have a bearing on the design of future climate agreements. We argue that the optimal policy design for a particular substance depends on a combination of scientific and political concerns. We look particularly at regional climate effects| negative forcing| metrics (measuring climate effects against other gases on a common scale). political attractiveness. and verification and compliance. We systematically review the existing knowledge on these issues. explore their impact on policy design. and conclude that| with current scientific knowledge. CO and NMVOC could conceivably be included in a global climate agreement. either in a basket|with the long-lived greenhouse gases or in a separate basket. while NO| and aerosols might be regulated more appropriately through regional agreements with links to a global agreement. However| the complexity and fairness implications of including tropospheric ozone precursors and aerosols might negatively affect the political feasibility of a future agreement. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7002,2005,5,4,Turnover of larger foraminifera during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum and paleoclimatic control on the evolution of platform ecosystems,The larger-foraminifera turnover (LIFT) during the Paleocene-Eocene transition constitutes an important step in Paleogene larger-foraminifera evolution| involving a rapid increase in species diversity| shell size| and adult dimorphism. A platform-to-basin transect in Egypt provides new data on timing and causal mechanisms through correlation with planktic biozonations and through integration with regional paleoenvironmental data. The LFT coincides with the boundary between shallow benthic biozones SBZ4 and SBZ5 and closely correlates with the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Enhanced oligotrophy from the late Paleocene onward favored the diversification of K-strategist larger foraminifera. We suggest that a short-term eutrophication during the PETM led to a temporary decline of extreme K-strategist larger-foraminifera species| providing opportunities for new taxa| with different ecological strategies to develop. During post-PETM oligotrophic conditions| these new taxa were able to evolve rapidly and soon dominated early Eocene larger-foraminifera assemblages| whereas many Paleocene taxa gradually disappeared. The success of larger foraminifera during the early Paleogene appears climatically controlled. Because of the vulnerability of corals to high surface-water temperatures| the late Paleocene to early Eocene global warming may have favored larger foraminifera at the expense of corals as the main carbonate-producing component on carbonate platforms at lower latitudes. 7224,2005,3,4,Uncertainty analysis in life cycle assessment (LCA): Case study on plant-protection products and implications for decision making,Goal| Scope| and Background. Uncertainty analysis in LCA is important for sound decision support. Nevertheless| the actual influence of uncertainty on decision making in specific LCA case-studies has only been little studied so far. Therefore| we assessed the uncertainty in an LCA comparing two plant-protection products. Methods. Uncertainty and variability in LCI flows and characterization factors (CML-baseline method) were expressed as generic uncertainty factors and subsequently propagated into impact scores using Monte-Carlo simulation. Uncertainty in assumptions on production efficiency for chemicals| which is of specific interest for the case study| was depicted by scenarios. Results and Discussion. Impact scores concerning acidification| eutrophication| and global warming display relatively small dispersions. Differences in median impact scores of a factor of 1.6 were sufficient in the case study for a significant distinction of the products. Results of toxicity impact-categories show large dispersions due to uncertainty in characterization factors and in the composition of sum parameters. Therefore| none of the two products was found to be significantly environmentally preferable to the other. Considering the case study results and inherent characteristics of the impact categories| a tentative rule of thumb is put forward that quantifies differences in impact scores necessary to obtain significant results in product comparisons. Conclusion. Published LCA case-studies may have overestimated the significance of results. It is therefore advisable to routinely carry out quantitative uncertainty analyses in LCA. If this is not feasible| for example due to time restrictions| the rule of thumb proposed here may be helpful to evaluate the significance of results for the impact categories of global warming| acidification| eutrophication| and photooxidant creation. 1834,2005,2,4,Uncertainty assessment of spatial patterns of soil organic carbon density using sequential indicator simulation| a case study of Hebei province| China,The spatial patterns of soil organic carbon (SOC) are closely related to the global climate change. In quantifying the spatial patterns of SOC density| the concept of uncertainty of the SOC density values at unsampled locations is particularly important because such uncertainty can be propagated into the subsequent global climate change modelling and has fundamental impacts on the ultimate results of the model. A total of 361 SOC density data of topsoil (0-20 cm) in Hebei province and sequential indicator simulation (SIS) were applied to perform a conditional stochastic simulation in this study to quantitatively assess the uncertainty of mapping SOC density. The results showed that a great variation exists in the SOC density data. The conditional variance of 500 realizations generated by SIS was larger in mountainous areas of the study area where the SOC density fluctuated the most| and the uncertainty was smaller on the plain area where SOC density was consistently small. Realizations generated by SIS can represent the possible spatial patterns of SOC density without smoothing effect. A set of realizations can be used to explore all possible spatial patterns of SOC density and provide a visual and quantitative measure of the spatial uncertainty of mapping SOC density. With a given threshold of SOC density| SIS can quantitatively assess both local uncertainty and spatial uncertainty of SOC density that is greater the threshold. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7102,2005,2,4,Using ground-penetrating radar to detect permafrost degradation in the northern limit of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau,We used 50-MHz ground-penetrating radar to detect the boundary of permafrost in Xidatan region| the northern limit of the marginal and sporadic permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau| China. We interpreted the lower limit of permafrost from nine radar profiles to determine the boundary between the permafrost and non-permafrost region. We also sketched the locations of permafrost table along the nine profiles and acquired the lower alpine limit of permafrost in this area. Based on the lower alpine limit of permafrost determined in this field survey| a new permafrost distribution map was drawn with the help of GIS analyses. Comparing with the research work in 1975| permafrost in Xidatan is reduced 12% in area and the lower alpine limit has increased by 25 m. The situation of global warming| apparent climatic warming recorded at two stations near Xidatan| could be responsible for permafrost degradation in this area. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 6869,2005,3,4,Using hybrid modeling for life cycle assessment of motor bike and electric bike,Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is environmental evaluation of products| materials| and processes over their life cycle. Truncation uncertainty and corresponding uncertainty are main problems occurred in process life cycle assessment (PLCA) modeling and economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIOLCA) modeling. Through combination of these two modelings in different life cycle stage and use of an uncertainty reduction strategy| a hybrid life cycle assessment modeling method was proposed in this study. Case studies were presented on gasoline powered motorbikes (M-bike) and electricity-powered electric bike (E-bike). Web-based software was developed to analyze process environmental impacts. Results show that the largest part of life cycle energy (LCE) is consumed at use stage. Less energy is consumed in life cycle of E-bike than that of M-bike. GWP (Global Warming Potential)| CO (Carbon Monoxide)| PM10 (particulate matter) emission of M-bike are higher than that of E-bike| especially at use stage| AP (acidification Potential) emission of E-bike is higher than that of M-bike. Comprehensively| E-bike is energy efficient and less emitting| and better choice for urban private transportation. 7084,2005,2,4,Using surrogate data in population viability analysis: the case of the critically endangered cranberry fritillary butterfly,Population viability analyses (PVA) are central tools for the management of threatened populations. However| the parameterisation of effective PVA models is very demanding in high quality data| which are often impossible to collect on endangered populations. Here we propose the use of a generalisation strategy to bypass this limitation: management measures for an endangered metapopulation of the cranberry fritillary butterfly in the Netherlands are evaluated with RAMAS/GIS by using parameters estimated from a healthier metapopulation in Belgium. The Belgian metapopulation seems viable| with stable abundance and number of local populations| despite their erratic dynamics| whereas the Dutch metapopulation shows a continuous decline in the course of time| with many vacant habitat patches. Simulations of various scenarios indicated that (1) large scale restoration of habitat patches would be necessary to ensure long-term survival of the species in the Netherlands as not enough suitable habitats are currently remaining; and that (2) global warming is expected to put a major threat on both metapopulations by reducing the growth rate of this glacial relict species| and/or increasing environmental stochasticity (amplified climatic variations). 7140,2005,3,4,Vapour-liquid equilibrium measurements and correlation for the pentafluoroethane (R125)+n-butane (R600) system,Mixtures formed by hydrocarbons (HC) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) are considered promising possible substitutes for the chlorinated refrigerants and for HFC with high global warming potential (GWP). Following our studies on this kind of systems| vapour-liquid equilibria (VLE) experimental data for the R125 + R600 system were measured at temperatures 278.15 and 298.15 K by means of a static analytical method| with preliminary recirculation of the mixture to get a faster equilibrium. The composition of both phases in equilibrium was measured by a gas-chromatographic method. In the experimental temperature range| the system shows a strong positive deviation from the Raoult's law| even if it does not present an azeotropic composition. The VLE data were correlated by different equations of state involving various mixing rules| enabling a comparable analysis of their correlating ability of strongly non-ideal systems. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7109,2005,4,2,Variability of upper Pacific Ocean overturning in a coupled climate model,Variability of subtropical cell (STC) overturning in the upper Pacific Ocean is examined in a coupled climate model in light of large observed changes in STC transport. In a 1000-yr control run| modeled STC variations are smaller than observed| but correlate in a similar way with low-frequency ENSO-like variability. In model runs that include anthropogenically forced climate change| STC pycnocline transports decrease progressively under the influence of global warming| attaining reductions of 8% by 2000 and 46% by 2100. Although the former reduction is insufficient to fully account for the apparent observed decline in STC transport over recent decades| it does suggest that global warming may have contributed to the observed changes. Analysis of coupled model results shows that STC transports play a significant role in modulating tropical Pacific Ocean heat content| and that such changes are dominated by anomalous currents advecting mean temperature| rather than by advection of temperature anomalies by mean currents. 1862,2005,2,4,Variation in leaf litter nutrients of a Costa Rican rain forest is related to precipitation,By assessing current leaf litter nutrient dynamics| we may be able to predict responses of nutrient cycling in tropical ecosystems to future environmental change. The goal of this study was to assess whether nutrient cycling is related to seasonal variation in rainfall in a wet tropical forest. We examined leaf litter of an old-growth tropical rain forest in N.E. Costa Rica over a 4-year period to explore seasonal and inter-annual changes in leaf litter nutrient concentrations| and to evaluate potential short- and long-term drivers of variation in litter nutrient concentration| particularly that of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N). We also examined the temporal dynamics of calcium| potassium| and magnesium in the leaf litter. Leaf litter [P] and %N changed significantly with time| both seasonally and inter-annually. Seasonal changes in leaf litter [P] were strongly positively correlated with rainfall from the previous 2 weeks; cations| however| were inversely related to this measure of current rainfall| while %N was not related to rainfall. We propose that the positive relationship between current rainfall and leaf litter [P] is due to a response by the vegetation to an increase in nutrient availability and uptake. In contrast| given the negative relationship between current rainfall and cation concentrations| leaching from live leaf tissue is a more likely driver of short-term changes in cations. Should global climate change include altered rainfall patterns in this biome| one class of ecosystem-level responses could be significant changes in P and cation cycling. 1786,2005,4,4,Variation of karst spring discharge in the recent five decades as an indicator of global climate change: A case study at Shanxi| northern China,Karst in Shanxi Province is representative of that in northern China| and karst water systems discharge in the form of springs that are among the most important sources for local water supply. Since the 1950s| attenuation has been the major trend of discharge variation of most karst springs at Shanxi. Based on the case study of 7 karst springs including Niangziguan| Xin'an| Guozhuang| Shentou| Jinci| Lancun| and Hongshan springs| the discharge variation process of karst springs was divided into natural fluctuation phase and anthropogenic impact phase. Discharge attenuation of the 7 karst springs was controlled mainly by climate and human activities| with their contributions being respectively about 60% and 40%. According to the difference of the effect of climate and human activities for each spring| attenuation modes of spring discharge fall into three types: natural process dominated attenuation type| exploitation induced process dominated attenuation type| and mixed attenuation type. The total restored discharge variation of 7 karst springs matched well with the global air temperature change in 1956-2000| clearly indicating the trend of global warming and aridity in the last several decades| and the analysis of discharge variation processes of karst springs can be used as a new tool for global change studies. 1831,2005,4,4,Variations in tropical convection as an amplifier of global climate change at the millennial scale,The global expression of millennial-scale climatic change during the glacial period and the persistence of this signal in Holocene records point to atmospheric teleconnections as the mechanism propagating rapid climate variations. We suggest rearrangements in the tropical convection system globally affected the concentration and location of atmospheric water vapour and modulated terrestrial and marine emissions of CH(4) and N(2)O| providing a tropical mechanism of amplifying and perpetuating millennial-scale climate changes. A multi-proxy reconstruction reflecting various aspects of the intensity of the Arabian Sea Summer Monsoon shows strong millennial-scale variability over the past 90 kyr in which low intensity is associated with a southern shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and an eastward shift in the equatorial convergence zone. The monsoon reconstruction| which is based on new data from a Somali margin sediment core| is supported by previously reported tropical paleoclimatic records and suggests that global scale millennial climatic variability is in part driven by modulations in the tropical hydrological cycle and tropical emissions of the greenhouse gases CH(4) and N(2)O. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1816,2005,2,4,Warming in Arctic intermediate and deep waters around Chukchi Plateau and its adjacent regions in 1999,Based on the data measured during Arctic scientific expedition of China in 1999| the characteristics of temperature and salinity distributions around the Chukchi Plateau and its adjacent regions have been studied. It was found that the intermediate water with temperature higher than 0.5 degrees C existed in all parts of a 640 km section with a maximum temperature of 0.85 degrees C indicating a strong signal of the warming in Arctic Intermediate Water in 1999. Two important phenomena are described in this paper. First| the temperature of warm water was horizontally nonuniform. In the area of Chukchi Plateau| the temperature was higher| the layer of warm water was thicker and the depth of the warm water core was shallower than those in the area of continental slope. The horizontal nonuniformity of the temperature distribution of warming water implies that the upward heat flux should also be nonuniform| thus exerting different effects on sea ice thickness| ice extent| and air-sea heat exchange. The mechanism to generate higher temperature in the plateau region was the bypassing of current around the plateau area caused by the special local topography| which restricted water exchange across the plateau and conserved heat in the water body. Second| the deep water down to 1400 m was also warming with a temperature increase of 0.2 degrees C. The warming in deep water reflects the occurrence of complicated heat redistribution processes in the intermediate water| which altered the thermal structure in the upper 1400 m. The warming data embody the obvious impact of global climate change on the Arctic Ocean and further studies are wanted. 1832,2005,2,4,Water-saving approaches for improving wheat production,The greatest fear of global climate change is drought. World-wide| 61% of countries receive rainfall of less than 500 mm annually; domestication of wheat first occurred in such a semiarid region of southwestern Asia| and it seems that wheat foods originally came from dryland gardens. Wheat plants respond to drought through morphological| physiological and metabolic modifications in all plant parts. At the cellular level| plant responses to water deficit may result from cell damage| whereas other responses may correspond to adaptive processes. Although a large number of drought-induced genes have been identified in a wide range of wheat varieties| a molecular basis for wheat plant tolerance to water stress remains far from being completely understood. The rapid translocation of abscissic acid (ABA) in shoots via xylem flux| and the increase of ABA concentration in wheat plant parts cot-relate with the major physiological changes that occur during plant response to drought. It is widely accepted that ABA mediates general adaptive responses to drought. For a relatively determinate target stress environment| and with stable genotype x environment interaction| the probability for achieving progress is high. This approach will be possible only after we learn more about the physiology and genetics of wheat plant responses to water stress and their interactions. The difficulties encountered by molecular biologists in attempting to improve crop drought tolerance are due to our ignorance in agronomy and crop physiology and not to lack of knowledge or technical expertise in molecular biology. (c) 2005 Society of Chemical Industry. 7099,2005,2,3,Weak response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide in IAP/LASG climate system model,Response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) to global warming is examined by using the climate system model developed at IAP/LASG. The evidence indicates that the gradually warming climate associated with the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to a warmer and fresher sea surface water at the high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean| which prevents the down-welling of the surface water. The succedent reduction of the pole-to-equator meridional potential density gradient finally results in the decrease of the THC in intensity. When the atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled| the maximum value of the Atlantic THC decreases approximately by 8%. The associated poleward oceanic heat transport also becomes weaker. This kind of THC weakening centralizes mainly in the northern part of the North Atlantic basin| indicating briefly a local scale adjustment rather than a loop oscillation with the whole Atlantic "conveyor belt" decelerating. 1830,2005,2,4,What affects the magnitude of change in first arrival dates of migrant birds?,We analysed which among four factors (mean first arrival date| migration distance| changes in population size| detectability of species) influenced the magnitude of change (regression coefficient) in the first arrival dates of 30 migrant bird species in western Poland during 1983-2003. An examination suggested that several of these factors could be important: the regression coefficient was positively related to mean first arrival date (early species advancing their arrival date more) and negatively with change in population size (species in decline changing less). Moreover| significant differences in regression coefficient were detected between short and long distance migrants and between low detectable and highly detectable species. Undertaking a principal components analysis on the four factors produced an axis explaining 59% of the variance and whose positive values were associated with late arriving| long distance and low detectable species which were more likely to be in decline. However| the multi-collinearity of these factors is a problem that cannot be resolved here and we recommend that further work from different areas is needed to tease apart these effects. 7007,2005,2,4,What's happening in Monterey Bay on seasonal to interdecadal time scales,Daily observations of sea-surface temperature (SST) have been acquired at the southern end of Monterey Bay in Pacific Grove| California since 1919. It is one of the longest oceanographic records off the west coast of North America. The record is examined to determine the major sources of variability in Monterey Bay and beyond| on time scales from seasonal to interdecadal. On seasonal time scales| the spring transition to coastal upwelling| often a major event along the coast of central California. is not well-expressed inside the bay but is detectable| occurring| on average| between mid-March and mid-April. The onset of the Davidson Current in Monterey Bay is well-defined| occurring| on average. in mid-October| +/- 2-3 weeks. Intraseasonal changes also occur during the spring and summer that may correspond to intrusions of warmer offshore waters into Monterey Bay. Intraseasonal oscillations with periods in the range of 40-50 days occur in Monterey Bay| but compared to their signature along the open coast| their event-like behavior is modified. The annual cycle of surface temperature in Monterey Bay is asymmetric with seasonal warming occurring during the spring and summer| and cooling during the fall. This asymmetry is primarily due to the net surface heat exchange which is positive for most of the year| and. to a lesser extent| the influence cold upwelled waters that are advected into the bay during the spring and summer| observations supported by a simple model that combines both the net surface heat exchange and thermal advection. On interannual time scales| the influence of El Nino warming events is strong. A comparison with the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)| shows that the El Nino signal is often as strong in SST at Pacific Grove as it is in the NOI. On interdecadal time scales| the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is also relatively strong in Monterey Bay| again based on SSA. The integrated anomaly was calculated from the record and reveals regime shifts in Monterey Bay that occurred in 1929| an event that was apparently regional in scale| reflecting a transition from unusually cold to warmer conditions| and the regime change in the PDO that occurred in 1976. Each regime change can be approximated by a step-wise increase in temperature. Finally| linear trends were estimated for the entire record (similar to +0.01 C/year)| and for the 72-year period from 1930 to 2001 (+ 0.0042 C/year)| i.e.| following the regional regime change in 1929. The estimated trend for the last 72 years is not statistically significant| however| it is in close agreement with the long-term trend for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) record of global surface temperature that spans almost 140 years (similar to + 0.005 C/year). Although the long-term increase in SST at Pacific Grove appears to be consistent with global warming| the integrated anomaly suggests that temperature increases in Monterey Bay have occurred rather abruptly and thus it becomes more difficult to invoke the global warming scenario. Finally| based oil the monthly averaged data| the annual cycle| El Nino warming episodes| the PDO. the long-term trend| and the semiannual cycle account for approximately 44%. 18%. 6%| 4%| and 3% of the total variance| respectively in SST at Pacific Grove. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7198,2005,3,4,Why tax energy? Towards a more rational policy,The same fuels are taxed at widely different rates in different countries while different fuels are taxed at widely different rates within and across countries. This paper considers what tax theory has to say about efficient energy tax design. The main factors for energy taxes are the optimal tariff argument| the need to correct externalities such as global warming| and second-best considerations for taxing transport fuels as road charges| but these arc| inadequate to explain current energy taxes. EU energy tax harmonisation and Kyoto suggest that the time is ripe to reform energy taxation. 7011,2005,2,4,Will loss of snow cover during climatic warming expose New Zealand alpine plants to increased frost damage?,If snow cover in alpine environments were reduced through climatic warming| plants that are normally protected by snow-lie in winter would become exposed to greater extremes of temperature and solar radiation. We examined the annual course of frost resistance of species of native alpine plants from southern New Zealand that are normally buried in snowbanks over winter (Celmisia haastii and Celmisia prorepens) or in sheltered areas that may accumulate snow (Hebe Mora) and other species| typical of more exposed areas| that are relatively snow-free (Celmisia viscosa| Poa colensoi| Dracophyllum muscoides). The frost resistance of these principal species was in accord with habitat: those from snowbanks or sheltered areas showed the least frost resistance| whereas species from exposed areas had greater frost resistance throughout the year. P. colensoi had the greatest frost resistance (-32.5 degrees C). All the principal species showed a rapid increase in frost resistance from summer to early winter (February-June) and maximum frost resistance in winter (July-August). The loss of resistance in late winter to early summer (August-December) was most rapid in P. colensoi and D. muscoides. Seasonal frost resistance of the principal species was more strongly related to daylength than to temperature| although all species except C. viscosa were significantly related to temperature when the influence of daylength was accounted for. Measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence indicated that photosynthetic efficiency of the principal species declined with increasing daylength. Levels of frost resistance of the six principal alpine plant species| and others measured during the growing season| were similar to those measured in tropical alpine areas and somewhat more resistant than those recorded in alpine areas of Europe. The potential for frost damage was greatest in spring. The current relationship of frost resistance with daylength is sufficient to prevent damage at any time of year. While warmer temperatures might lower frost resistance| they would also reduce the incidence of frosts| and the incidence of frost damage is unlikely to be altered. The relationship of frost resistance with daylength and temperature potentially provides a means of predicting the responses of alpine plants in response to global warming. 1848,2005,3,3,World crop residues production and implications of its use as a biofuel,Reducing and off-setting anthropogenic emissions of CO| and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are important strategies of mitigating the greenhouse effect. Thus| the need for developing carbon (C) neutral and renewable sources of energy is more than ever before. Use of crop residue as a possible source of feedstock for bioenergy production must be critically and objectively assessed because of its positive impact on soil C sequestration.. soil quality maintenance and ecosystem functions. The amount of crop residue produced in the US is estimated at 367x10(6) Mg/year for 9 cereal crops| 450x10(6) Mg/year for 14 cereals and legumes| and 488x10(6) Mg/year for 21 crops. The amount of crop residue produced in the world is estimated at 2802x10(6) Mg/year for cereal crops| 3107x10(6) Mg/year for 17 cereals and legumes| and 3758x10(6) Mg/year for 27 food crops. The fuel value of the total annual residue produced is estimated at 1.5x10(15) kcal| about I billion barrels (bbl) of diesel equivalent| or about 8 quads for the US; and 11.3x10(15) kcal| about 7.5 billion bbl of diesel or 60 quads for the world. However| even a partial removal (30-40%) of crop residue from land can exacerbate soil erosion hazard| deplete the SOC pool| accentuate emission of CO| and other GHGs from soil to the atmosphere| and exacerbate the risks of global climate change. Therefore| establishing bioenergy plantations of site-specific species with potential of producing 10-15 Mg biomass/year is an option that needs to be considered. This option will require 40-60 million hectares of land in the US and about 250 million hectares worldwide to establish bioenergy plantations. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1844,2005,2,4,Year-round measurements of net ecosystem CO2 flux over a montane larch forest in Mongolia,Mongolian boreal forest merits special attention since it is located in the transitional area between the southern Siberian boreal forest and the Asian steppe zone| a vulnerable region being potentially affected by global warming and anthropogenic activities. This paper presents the first full-year-long continuous measurements of net ecosystem CO2 flux (NEE) made over a montane larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) forest in Mongolia from 25 March 2003 to 24 March 2004 (366 days) using the eddy covariance technique. The hourly maximum uptake was -10.1 μ mol m(-2) s(-1). The maximum daily uptake of -4.0 g C m(-2) d(-1) (negative NEE values denote net carbon uptake by the canopy from the atmosphere) occurred in July. The annual cumulative NEE was -85 g C m(-2)| indicating that the forest acted as a net sink of CO2. We examined the responses of NEE to environmental conditions in the growing season from May to September. Both daytime 30-min mean and daily integrated NEE responded to incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in a rectangular hyperbolic fashion. Model results show that the apparent quantum yield (α) was -0.0133 &PLUSMN; 0.0011 mmol CO2 per μ mol of photons| and the bulk light use efficiency (LUE) on the daily basis was -6.7 mmol CO2 per mole of PAR photons over the entire growing season for this forest. Additionally| daily integrated NEE was also a linear function of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)| a linear function of mean daily air temperature (T-a)| and a quadratic polynomial function of daily means of the atmospheric water vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Among these factors| LAI (as measured by NDVI) was dominant in affecting the dynamics of NEE| followed by T-a. Lower T-a was limiting the growth rate of this montane larch forest. As daily means of VPD exceeded 1.2 kPa| net CO2 uptake by the canopy declined. Nevertheless| water stress was not observed as a problem for the forest growth. 1734,2006,2,4,1851-2004 annual heat budget of the continental landmasses,Changing climate is accompanied by changing energy in various climate system components including the continental landmasses. When the temperature at ground surface rises| more heat will be deposited to the rocks beneath the ground subsurface| whereas when ground surface temperature falls| certain amount of heat will escape from the ground into the atmosphere. Based on the land-only global meteorological record| I analyze the annual heat budget of the world continents except for Antarctica. I show that between the period from 1851 to 2000 a total of 10.4 ZJ (Zetta-Joules or 10(21) J) of thermal energy had been absorbed by Africa| Asia| Australia| Europe| North America| and South America landmasses. An additional 1.34 ZJ of heat has been stored beneath the ground surface of these continents over the first four years of the 21st century from 2001 to 2004. The recent global climate change has led to an intensified heating in the continental landmasses. 7392,2006,2,3,A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems,We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead| we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: < 2 degrees C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant| i.e.| in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted)| 2-3 degrees C| and > 3 degrees C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia| eastern China| Canada| Central America| and Amazonia| with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia| the far north| and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50 degrees N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa| Central America| southern Europe| and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming > 3 degrees C than for < 2 degrees C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of approximate to 1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century| but for > 3 degrees C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years| even with atmospheric composition held constant. 1721,2006,3,3,A comparative analysis of woody biomass and coal for electricity generation under various CO2 emission reductions and taxes,Mitigating global climate change via CO2 emission control and taxation is likely to enhance the economic potential of bioenergy production and utilization. This study investigated the cost competitiveness of woody biomass for electricity production in the US under alternative CO2 emission reductions and taxes. We first simulated changes in the price of coal for electricity production due to CO2 emission reductions and taxation using a computable general equilibrium model. Then| the costs of electricity generation fueled by energy crops (hybrid poplar)| logging residues| and coal were estimated using the capital budgeting method. Our results indicate that logging residues would be competitive with coal if emissions were taxed at about US$25 Mg-1 CO2| while an emission tax US$100Mg(-1) CO2 or higher would be needed for hybrid poplar plantations at a yield of 11.21 dry Mg ha(-1)yr(-1) (5 dry tons ac(-1)yr(-1)) to compete with coal in electricity production. Reaching the CO2 emission targets committed under the Kyoto Protocol would only slightly increase the price of fossil fuels| generating little impact on the competitiveness of woody biomass. However| the price of coal used for electricity production would significantly increase if global CO2 emissions were curtailed by 20% or more. Logging residues would become a competitive fuel source for electricity production if current global CO2 emissions were cut by 20-30%. Hybrid poplar plantations would not be able to compete with coal until emissions were reduced by 40% or more. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7292,2006,2,4,A comparison of growing season indices for the Greater Baltic Area,Predictions of the effects of global warming suggest that climate change may have large impacts on ecosystems. The length of the growing season is predicted to increase in response to increasing global temperatures. The object of this study was to evaluate different indices used for calculating the thermal growing season for the Greater Baltic Area (GBA). We included established indices of growing season start| end and length| as well as new and modified indices. Based on the results| the GBA can be divided into a maritime western part and a more continental eastern part| with the western part reacting more sensitively to the use of different indices. The eastern part is more stable| but even here the index-to-index differences are large. It was found that including or excluding a frost criterion had a significant influence on the initiation of the growing season in the western| maritime| parts of the GBA. Frost has not the same importance for the end of the growing season. However| some end indices can result in a "never ending" growing season. When looking at twentieth century trends in growing season parameters| it was found that| when averaged over the whole GBA| there was little difference in trends depending on the indices used. The general mean trend in the GBA for the twentieth century discloses an earlier onset of c. 12 days| a delayed end of c. 8 days and consequently a lengthening of the growing season of about 20 days. 7300,2006,3,3,A comparison of the environmental benefits of bagasse-derived electricity and fuel ethanol on a life-cycle basis,The energetic utilisation of agricultural residues is considered to be an important element in any strategy to achieve renewable energy targets. In the approximately 80 cane-sugar producing countries there is potential to make better use of the fibrous residue known as bagasse. Subject to improved energy efficiency| sugar producers could supply energy either as "green"| co-generated electricity| or as fuel ethanol through cellulose hydrolysis followed by fermentation. This paper compares their projected environmental benefits from a life-cycle perspective| using South African data. Mass and energy analyses were prepared for the two systems and a base case (producing sugar with current methods)| relative to the annual sugarcane production on one hectare. In both cases| the environmental burdens avoided by replacing an equivalent amount of fossil energy were included. The results obtained confirm that for all the impact categories considered| both "bioenergy" products result in environmental benefits. The cogeneration option results in lower energy-related emissions (i.e. lower global warming| acidification and eutrophication potentials)| whereas the fuel ethanol option is preferred in terms of resource conservation (since it is assumed to replace oil not coal)| and also scores better in terms of human and eco-toxicity if assumed to replace lead-bearing oxygenates. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7254,2006,2,4,A global crisis for seagrass ecosystems,Seagrasses| marine flowering plants| have a long evolutionary history but are now challenged with rapid environmental changes as a result of coastal human population pressures. Seagrasses provide key ecological services| including organic carbon production and export| nutrient cycling| sediment stabilization| enhanced biodiversity| and trophic transfers to adjacent habitats in tropical and temperate regions. They also serve as "coastal canaries|" global biological sentinels of increasing anthropogenic influences in coastal ecosystems| with large-scale losses reported worldwide. Multiple stressors| including sediment and nutrient runoff| physical disturbance| invasive species| disease| commercial fishing practices| aquaculture| overgrazing| algal blooms| and global warming| cause seagrass declines at scales of square meters to hundreds of square kilometers. Reported seagrass losses have led to increased awareness of the need for seagrass protection| monitoring| management| and restoration. However| seagrass science| which has rapidly grown| is disconnected from public awareness of seagrasses| which has lagged behind awareness of other coastal ecosystems. There is a critical need for a targeted global conservation effort that includes a reduction of watershed nutrient and sediment inputs to seagrass habitats and a targeted educational program informing regulators and the public of the value of seagrass meadows. 7363,2006,2,4,A growing degree-days based time-series analysis for prediction of Schistosoma japonicum transmission in Jiangsu province| China,It has been suggested that global warming may alter the frequency and transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. To test this claim for schistosomiasis| we conducted a time-series analysis from 1972-2002 for 39 of the 70 counties of Jiangsu province| eastern China| where Schistosoma japonicum is partially endemic. We used a modeling approach to estimate the annual growing degree-days (AGDD)| employing a lower temperature threshold of 15.3 degrees C. Our final model included both temporal and spatial components| the former consisting of second order polynomials in time plus a seasonality component| whereas the spatial trend was formed by second order polynomials of the coordinates plus the thin-plate smoothing splines. We found that temperature increased over the past 30 years in all observing stations. There were distinct temporal trends with seasonality and periodicities of 12| 6| and 3 months| whereas only marginal spatial variation was observed. The predicted AGDDs for 2006 and 2003 showed increases for the entire Jiangsu province| with the AGDDs difference between these two time points exhibiting an increase from north to South. Our data suggest that changes in temperature will alter the extent and level of schistosomiasis transmission| which is relevant for the control of S. japonicum in a future warmer China. 1605,2006,4,4,A land surface model incorporated with soil freeze/thaw and its application in GAME/Tibet,Land surface process is of great importance in global climate change| moisture and heat exchange in the interface of the earth and atmosphere| human impacts on the environment and ecosystem| etc. Soil freeze/thaw plays an important role in cold land surface processes. In this work the diurnal freeze/thaw effects on energy partition in the context of GAME/Tibet are studied. A sophisticated land surface model is developed| the particular aspect of which is its physical consideration of soil freeze/thaw and vapor flux. The simultaneous water and heat transfer soil sub-model not only reflects the water flow from unfrozen zone to frozen fringe in freezing/thawing soil| but also demonstrates the change of moisture and temperature field induced by vapor flux from high temperature zone to low temperature zone| which makes the model applicable for various circumstances. The modified Picard numerical method is employed to help with the water balance and convergence of the numerical scheme. Finally| the model is applied to analyze the diurnal energy and water cycle characteristics over the Tibetan Plateau using the Game/Tibet datasets observed in May and July of 1998. Heat and energy transfer simulation shows that: (i) There exists a negative feedback mechanism between soil freeze/thaw and soil temperature/ground heat flux; (ii) during freezing period all three heat fluxes do not vary apparently| in spite of the fact that the negative soil temperature is higher than that not considering soil freeze; (iii) during thawing period| ground heat flux increases| and sensible heat flux decreases| but latent heat flux does not change much; and (iv) during freezing period| soil temperature decreases| though ground heat flux increases. 7687,2006,3,4,A limited LCA comparing large- and small-scale production of ethanol for heavy engines under Swedish conditions,Ethanol is a renewable fuel that can be produced in small farm-scale plants as well as in medium- and large-scale industrial plants for use in e.g. heavy diesel engines. The purpose of this study was to analyse whether the use of a small-scale production system reduced the environmental load in comparison to a medium- and a large-scale system. Therefore| a limited life cycle assessment (LCA)| including air emissions and energy requirements| was carried out for the three plant sizes. For the small plant and with physical allocation| the global-warming potential was 31.5 g CO2-eq/MJ(fuel)| the acidification potential was 198 mg SO2-eq/MJ(fuel)| the eutrophication potential was 30.9 mg PO43--eq/MJ(fuel)| the photochemical ozone creation potential was 13.8 mg C2H4-eq/MJ(fuel) and the energy requirement 359 kJ/MJ(fuel). It was shown that the differences in environmental impact and energy requirement between small-| medium- and large-scale systems were small. The longer transport distances to a certain degree Outweighed the higher energy efficiency and the more efficient use of machinery and buildings in the large-scale system. The dominating production step was the cultivation| in which production of fertilisers| followed by soil emissions and tractive power| made major contributions to the environmental load. The choice of allocation method had a certain influence on the difference between the scales| whereas the influence Of uncertainty in input data and of some alternative production strategies was small. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1680,2006,2,4,A matter of timing: changes in the first date of arrival and last date of departure of Australian migratory birds,Although there is substantial evidence that Northern Hemisphere species have responded to climatic change over the last few decades| there is little documented evidence that Southern Hemisphere species have responded in the same way. Here| we report that Australian migratory birds have undergone changes in the first arrival date (FAD) and last date of departure (LDD) of a similar magnitude as species from the Northern Hemisphere. We compiled data on arrival and departure of migratory birds in south-east Australia since 1960 from the published literature| Bird Observer Reports| and personal observations from bird watchers. Data on the FAD for 24 species and the LDD for 12 species were analyzed. Sixteen species were short- to middle-distance species arriving at their breeding grounds| seven were long-distance migrants arriving at their nonbreeding grounds| and one was a middle-distance migrant also arriving at its nonbreeding ground. For 12 species| we gathered data from more than one location| enabling us to assess the consistency of intraspecific trends at different locations. Regressions of climate variables against year show that across south-east Australia average annual maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.17 degrees C and 0.13 degrees C decade(-1) since 1960| respectively. Over this period there has been an average advance in arrival of 3.5 days decade(-1); 16 of the 45 time-series (representing 12 of the 24 species studied) showed a significant trend toward earlier arrival| while only one time-series showed a significant delay. Conversely| there has been an average delay in departure of 5.1 days decade(-1); four of the 21 departure time-series (four species) showed a significant trend toward later departure| while one species showed a significant trend toward earlier departure. However| differences emerge between the arrival and departure of short- to middle-distance species visiting south-east Australia to breed compared with long-distance species that spend their nonbreeding period here. On average| short- to middle-distance migrants have arrived at their breeding grounds 3.1 days decade(-1) earlier and delayed departure by 8.1 days decade(-1)| thus extending the time spent in their breeding grounds by similar to 11 days decade(-1). The average advance in arrival at the nonbreeding grounds of long-distance migrants is 6.8 days decade(-1). These species| however| have also advanced departure by an average of 6.9 days decade(-1). Hence| the length of stay has not changed but rather| the timing of events has advanced. The patterns of change in FAD and LDD of Australian migratory birds are of a similar magnitude to changes undergone by Northern Hemisphere species| and add further evidence that the modest warming experienced over the past few decades has already had significant biological impacts on a global scale. 7344,2006,3,4,A method for technology selection considering environmental and socio-economic impacts - Input-output optimization model and its application to housing policy,Goal| Scope and Background. In Japan| the abatement of CO| emission by households is a significant problem. Hence| it is necessary to formulate a long-term policy on the use of long-life and highly-insulating technologies for houses; these technologies are expected to reduce CO| emission. The conventional LCA methodology can evaluate the environmental impact of these technologies| while not necessarily providing sufficient information to support policy-making because of its analytical perspective. The aim of the present study is to first develop a new methodology to examine the optimal use of technologies to formulate an environmental policy by considering dynamic socioeconomic conditions. Second| as a demonstration| such a developed methodology is applied to explore an environmentally conscious housing policy for CO| abatement in Japan. Methods. A new methodology was developed| considering the context of a society where technologies are introduced| in order to determine the optimal configuration of technologies to minimize the cumulative environmental burden over time on a social scale. An inter-temporal linear programming model using an input-output table was formulated to make the methodology operational. Using the new model| the optimal use of long-life and thermal-insulating technologies for houses is examined to minimize CO| emissions across the entire life cycle of all the houses in Japan. Results and Discussion. The results of the model simulation indicate that not only long-life and highly-insulating technologies| but also short-life and poorly-insulating technologies| are required to minimize CO| emissions over a long period. According to the conventional LCA| a house with a short life is inferior to that with a long life| and a house with poor insulation is inferior to that with high insulation. However| houses with a short life and/or poor insulation are introduced in a transition phase to a certain extent before the final stage is reached that is completely dominated by highly-insulated houses with a long life. In other words| the existing houses that were built in the past are gradually replaced with highly-insulated houses with a long life after first building houses with a short life and/or poor insulation. It is not always feasible or not necessarily an optimal solution on a social scale to introduce only a technology that is best evaluated by using the conventional LCA. Inferior technologies can also play a significant role because of various socio-economic conditions and requirements| e.g. population decline| limited housing budgets| and employment stability. Dynamic socio-economic conditions significantly influence the optimal mix of technologies for CO| minimization in the entire society. Conclusions and Recommendations. The present study suggests that it is critical to consider dynamic socio-economic conditions when examining technologies for selection with the aim of a long-term reduction of the environmental burden. The new methodology proposed can provide valuable information to support policy-making toward a sustainable society. 7524,2006,3,3,A microwave plasma torch and its applications,A portable microwave plasma torch at atmospheric pressure by making use of magnetrons operated at 2.45 GHz and used in a home microwave oven has been developed. This electrodeless torch can be used in various areas including commercial| environmental and military applications. For example| perfluorocompounds (PFCs)| which have long lifetimes and serious global warming implications| are widely used during plasma etching and plasma-assisted chamber cleaning processes in chemical vapour deposition systems. The microwave torch effectively eliminates PFCs. Efficient decomposition of toluene gas indicates the effectiveness of volatile organic compound eliminations from industrial emission and the elimination of airborne chemical and biological warfare agents. The microwave torch has been used to synthesize carbon nanotubes in an on-line system| thereby providing the opportunity of mass production of the nanotubes. There are other applications of the microwave plasma torch. 1719,2006,4,4,A new study of the Mediterranean outflow| air-sea interactions| and meddies using multisensor data,Previous studies of the Mediterranean Sea outflow and meddies (O&M) were limited by the poor spatial and temporal resolution of conventional in situ observations as well as the confinement of satellite observations to the ocean's surface. Accordingly| little is known about the formation and transport of meddies and the spatial and temporal variation of O&M trajectories| which are located| on average| at a depth of 1000 m. However| a new remote sensing method has been developed by the authors to observe and study the O&M through unique approaches in satellite multisensor data integration analyses. Satellite altimeter| scatterometer| infrared satellite imagery| and XBT data were used to detect and calculate the trajectories and the relative transport of the O&M (January 1993-December 2002). Two experiments [covering 199395: A Mediterranean Undercurrent Seeding Experiment (AMUSE) and Structures des Echanges MerAtmosphere| Proprietes des Heterogeneites Oceaniques: Recherche Experimentale (SEMAPHORE)] and XBT temperature measurements were used to directly validate the method presented herein. The monthly mean features derived from floats and XBTs for multiple meddies and the results of the presented method were significantly correlated based on a statistical chi-square test. In addition| the complex singular value decomposition method was used to identify the propagating features and their phase speeds. It was found that saltier water from the Mediterranean Sea was transported into the North Atlantic Ocean over the Strait of Gibraltar in boreal spring and summer relative to boreal autumn and winter. Streamfunctions using altimetry| and time-frequency energy distributions using the Hilbert-Huang transform| were computed to evaluate the meddy interactions with the sea surface variation. Since the O&M play a significant role in carrying salty water from the Mediterranean Sea into the Atlantic| such new knowledge about their trajectories| transport| and life histories is important to the understanding of their mixing and interaction with North Atlantic water. This may lead to a better understanding of the global ocean circulation and global climate change. 7629,2006,5,4,A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China,Recent studies indicated that the spatial pattern and temporal variability of summer rainfall over eastern China are well correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Here we used a data set of the drought/flood index (a proxy of summer rainfall) since 1470 AD to reconstruct the annual PDO index. The reconstruction indicates that the PDO is a robust feature of North Pacific climate variability throughout the study period| however| the major modes of oscillation providing the basic PDO regime timescale have not been persistent over the last 530 years. The quasi-centennial (75-115-yr) and pentadecadal (50-70-yr) oscillations dominated the periods before and after 1850| respectively. Our analysis suggest that solar forcing fluctuation on quasi-centennial time scale (Gleissberg cycle) could be the pace-maker of the PDO before 1850| and the PDO behavior after 1850 could be due| in part| to the global warming. 1645,2006,2,4,A phyloclimatic study of Cyclamen,Background: The impact of global climate change on plant distribution| speciation and extinction is of current concern. Examining species climatic preferences via bioclimatic niche modelling is a key tool to study this impact. There is an established link between bioclimatic niche models and phylogenetic diversification. A next step is to examine future distribution predictions from a phylogenetic perspective. We present such a study using Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae)| a group which demonstrates morphological and phenological adaptations to its seasonal Mediterranean-type climate. How will the predicted climate change affect future distribution of this popular genus of garden plants? Results: We demonstrate phylogenetic structure for some climatic characteristics| and show that most Cyclamen have distinct climatic niches| with the exception of several wide-ranging| geographically expansive| species. We reconstruct climate preferences for hypothetical ancestral Cyclamen. The ancestral Cyclamen lineage has a preference for the seasonal Mediterranean climate characteristic of dry summers and wet winters. Future bioclimatic niches| based on BIOCLIM and Maxent models| are examined with reference to a future climate scenario for the 2050s. Over the next 50 years we predict a northward shift in the area of climatic suitability| with many areas of current distribution becoming climatically unsuitable. The area of climatic suitability for every Cyclamen species is predicted to decrease. For many species| there may be no areas with a suitable climate regardless of dispersal ability| these species are considered to be at high risk of extinction. This risk is examined from a phylogenetic perspective. Conclusion: Examining bioclimatic niches from a phylogenetic perspective permits novel interpretations of these models. In particular| reconstruction of ancestral niches can provide testable hypothesis about the historical development of lineages. In the future we can expect a northwards shift in climatic suitability for the genus Cyclamen. If this proves to be the case then dispersal is the best chance of survival| which seems highly unlikely for ant-dispersed Cyclamen. Human-assisted establishment of Cyclamen species well outside their native ranges offers hope and could provide the only means of dispersal to potentially suitable future environments. Even without human intervention the phylogenetic perspective demonstrates that major lineages could survive climate change even if many species are lost. 7563,2006,2,4,A rapid altitudinal range expansion in the pine processionary moth produced by the 2003 climatic anomaly,Climatic anomalies may produce| or accelerate| geographic range expansions of species limited by temperature or other climatic variables. Most such expansions are only temporary| before the prevailing climatic conditions drive the founder populations extinct. In contrast| here| we report a recent rapid shift of the range limit during the record hot summer of 2003 in southern Europe that has the potential to be both permanent| and to have important implications on species range dynamics in general. The winter pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa)| an important pine defoliator whose larvae feed in colonies during the winter| is limited in its distribution by winter temperatures. In the last three decades| warmer winters have led to a gradual but substantial expansion of its range both latitudinally and altitudinally. In the summer of 2003| T. pityocampa underwent an extraordinary expansion to high elevation pine stands in the Italian Alps; its altitudinal range limit increased by one third of the total altitudinal expansion over the previous three decades. In an experiment| we found flight activity of newly emerged females to increase with temperature. By determining a threshold temperature for flight take-offs under controlled conditions| we calculated that the nights above the threshold temperature were over five times more frequent| and considerably warmer| at the range limit in 2003 than in an average year. We therefore attribute the colonization of extreme| high-elevation sites to increased nocturnal dispersal of females during the unusually warm night temperatures in June - August 2003. Importantly| the colonies established at extreme sites survived the winter and produced offspring in 2004| although the range did not expand further because of low night temperatures that year. We discuss several life-history characteristics of T. pityocampa that maximize the likelihood of population persistence at the new range limit. As global warming continues and climatic anomalies are predicted to become more frequent| our results draw attention to the importance of extreme climatic events in the range formation of phytophagous insects. 7536,2006,4,4,A regulatory effect of ENSO on the time-mean thermal stratification of the equatorial upper ocean,To investigate the role of ENSO in regulating the time-mean thermal stratification of the equatorial Pacific| perturbation experiments are conducted in pairs with a coupled model. In one experiment| ENSO is turned off while in the other experiment ENSO is kept on. Perturbations are introduced through either enhancing tropical heating or increasing subtropical cooling. In the absence of ENSO| the time-mean difference between the warm-pool SST (Tw) and the characteristic temperature of the equatorial thermocline (Tc) responds sensitively to either enhanced tropical heating or enhanced subtropical cooling. In the presence of ENSO| such a sensitivity to destabilizing forcing disappears. The lack of sensitivity in the response of Tw-Tc is linked to a stronger ENSO in response to the destabilizing forcing. ENSO in the model acts as a basin-scale heat "mixer" that enables surface heat to be transported to the depths of the equatorial thermocline. The study raises the question whether models with poor simulations of ENSO can give reliable predictions of the response of the time-mean climate to global warming. 7374,2006,5,4,A revised late Holocene sea-level record for northern Massachusetts| USA,Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dating of basal high-marsh sediments from Romney Marsh| Revere| Massachusetts| provides a revised reconstruction of the late Holocene relative sea-level history of the region. After correction for changes in tidal amplitude| the sea-level change envelope reconstructed from five AMS radiocarbon dates of basal marsh sediments at Romney Marsh in Revere| Massachusetts| indicates a rise in mean sea level (MSL) of close to 2.6 m in the past 3300 years. The data indicate a possible decrease in the average rate of rise from 0.80 +/- 0.25 mm/y between 3300 to 1000 YBP to a rate of 0.52 +/- 0.62 mm/y between 1000 YBP and the past 150 to 500 years. An increase in the rate of sea-level rise is evident over the past few hundred years. A slowing of the rate of sea-level rise between 1000 YBP and historic times and the increase in the rate of rise to modern values is also evident in other sea-level records from Maine and Connecticut. The coherence between these sea-level records and concomitant climate changes in and around the North Atlantic indicates that regional-scale sea-level fluctuations in the region may be driven by climate forcing. However| earlier sea-level fluctuations correlated to sea-surface temperature variability are not well-resolved by this record or other records in the region and may indicate that changes in sea level are not tightly coupled with sea-surface temperature changes. 7286,2006,3,3,A short-term investigation of trace gas emissions following tillage and no-tillage of agroforestry residues in western Kenya,Improved-fallow agroforestry systems are increasingly being adopted in the humid tropics for soil fertility management. However| there is little information on trace gas emissions after residue application in these systems| or on the effect of tillage practice on emissions from tropical agricultural systems. Here| we report a short-term experiment in which the effects of tillage practice (no-tillage versus tillage to 15 cm depth) and residue quality on emissions of N(2)O| CO(2) and CH(4) were determined in an improved-fallow agroforestry system in western Kenya. Emissions were increased following tillage of Tephrosia candida (2.1 g N(2)O-N ha(-1) kg N applied(-1); 759 kg CO(2)-C ha(-1) t C applied(-1); 30 g CH(4)-C ha(-1) t C applied(-1)) and Crotalaria paulina residues (2.8 g N(2)O-N ha(-1) kg N applied-1; 967 kg CO(2)-C ha(-1) t C applied(-1); 146 g CH(4)-C ha(-1) t C applied(-1)) and were higher than from tillage of natural-fallow residues (1.0 g N(2)O-N ha(-1) kg N applied(-1); 432 kg CO(2)-C ha(-1) t C applied(-1); 14.7 g CH(4)C ha(-1) t C applied(-1)) or from continuous maize cropping systems. Emissions from these fallow treatments were positively correlated with residue N content (r = 0.62-0.97; P < 0.05) and negatively correlated with residue lignin content (r = -0.56| N(2)O; r = -0.92| CH(4); P < 0.05). No-tillage of surface applied Tephrosia residues lowered the total N(2)O and CO(2) emitted over 99 days by 0.33 g N(2)O-N ha(-1) kg N applied(-1) and 124 kg CO(2)-C ha(-1) t C applied(-1)| respectively; estimated to provide a reduction in global warming potential of 419 CO(2) equivalents. However| emissions were increased from this treatment over the first 2 weeks. The responses to tillage practice and residue quality reported here need to be verified in longer term experiments before they can be used to suggest mitigation strategies appropriate for all three greenhouse gases. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7501,2006,4,4,A simulation and mechanism analysis of long-term variations at land surface over arid/semi-arid area in north China,[ 1] A revised version of an atmosphere-vegetation interaction model AVIM is presented and applied to the Northeast China Transect (NECT)| an ecological transect over the arid/semi-arid area of China| to study the interaction between land surface physical processes and the physiological processes. The model reasonably simulates the physical fluxes and net primary productivity (NPP) along NECT. A 41-year simulation along NECT reveals the following. ( 1) Moisture is a major factor controlling the spatial distributions and temporal variation of NPP and leaf area index (LAI) along NECT. It is found that the effect of temperature-induced ( or radiation-induced) variation in the moisture condition of the vegetation exceeds the effect of temperature ( or radiation) itself on NPP and LAI. ( 2) The spatial distribution of vegetation and related parameters| such as albedo and canopy resistance| is crucial to the simulated distributions or the gradients of the physical fluxes. The simulated interannual variability of surface physical fluxes is strongly related to the interannual variation of the vegetation. ( 3) Related to global warming| there are long-term trends in the NPP and LAI of natural vegetation along NECT. At the early part of the growing season ( April)| the trends of NPP and LAI are positive mainly owing to the lengthening of growing days in April; however| the trends are negative during the summer ( the main growing season) due to the unfavorable effects on the moisture condition of the vegetation by the warming. 1670,2006,2,4,A stage-based study of drought response in Cryptantha flava (Boraginaceae): Gas exchange| water use efficiency| and whole plant performance,Models of global climate change predict an increase in the frequency of major droughts| yet we know little about the consequences of drought for the demography of natural populations. This study examined a population of the semi-desert perennial Cryptantha flava (Boraginaceae) to determine how plants of different developmental stages respond to drought through changes in leaf gas exchange| leaf water potential| water use efficiency| growth| and reproduction. In two of the four years| drought was applied using rainout shelters| and a severe natural drought occurred in another. Small| presumably younger| plants sometimes had lower rates of maximum photosynthesis| lower leaf water potentials| and lower instantaneous or integrated water-use efficiency than large plants. Small plants also had higher relative growth rates and lower reproductive effort. Large plants with evidence of shrinkage from a previously larger size often produced less growth and reproduction than large healthy plants| suggesting a decline in plant vigor with age. Drought depressed gas exchange and leaf water potentials equally in all plant stages. Thus| leaf-level physiological attributes provide no clues for why drought reduces growth more strongly in large plants. The results point to several additional avenues of research relevant to understanding stage-dependent or age-dependent plant performance under drought conditions. 7260,2006,2,3,A strategy and protocol to increase diffusion of energy related innovations into the mainstream of housing associations,To reduce human causes of global warming| large scale implementation of innovative products that save energy is necessary. Innovative products first reach the early market actors who are driven by a visionary attitude. Hereafter| the products must reach the much larger mainstream market whose actors are driven by a pragmatic attitude. Many innovations| however| only appeal to the visionary early market and do not meet the more pragmatic needs of the mainstream. For that reason| innovations often fall in a "chasm" between the early market and the mainstream and fail to reach the mainstream. We developed a strategy and a protocol to aid governmental agencies in influencing the mainstream members of housing associations to adopt energy conservation innovations. Our method is an adaptation of an existing marketing method and applicable to other target groups. The first step in crossing this chasm is to find a niche segment in the mainstream as the starting point for winning the rest of the mainstream. By surveying the target group and analyzing the data| we identified 29 housing associations (234 interviewed) that belong to this niche segment. Identifying the niche segment and its determinants of behaviour is part of our 4-step protocol that leads to adapting the innovative product to meet the needs of the niche and setting up a marketing plan to win the rest of the mainstream. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1750,2006,2,4,A synthesis of bentho-pelagic coupling on the Antarctic shelf: Food banks| ecosystem inertia and global climate change,The Antarctic continental shelf is large| deep (500-1000 m)| and characterized by extreme seasonality in sea-ice cover and primary production. Intense seasonality and short pelagic foodwebs on the Antarctic shelf may favor strong benthopelagic coupling| whereas unusual water depth combined with complex topography and circulation could cause such coupling to be weak. Here| we address six questions regarding the nature and strength of coupling between benthic and water-column processes on the continental shelf surrounding Antarctica. We find that water-column production is transmitted to the shelf floor in intense pulses of particulate organic matter| although these pulses are often difficult to correlate with local phytoplankton blooms or sea-ice conditions. On regional scales| benthic habitat variability resulting from substrate type| current regime| and iceberg scour often may obscure the imprint of water-column productivity on the seafloor. However| within a single habitat type| i.e. the muddy sediments that characterize much of the deep Antarctic shelf| macrobenthic biomass appears to be correlated with regional primary production and sea-ice duration. Over annual timescales| many benthic ecological processes were initially expected to vary in phase with the extraordinary boom/bust cycle of production in the water column. However| numerous processes| including sediment respiration| deposit feeding| larval development| and recruitment| often are poorly coupled to the summer bloom season. Several integrative| time-series studies on the Antarctic shelf suggest that this lack of phasing may result in part from the accumulation of a persistent sediment food bank that buffers the benthic ecosystem from the seasonal variability of the water column. As a consequence| a variety of benthic parameters (e.g.| sediment respiration| inventories of labile organic matter| macrobenthic biomass) may act as "low-pass" filters| responding to longer-term (e.g.| inter-annual) trends in water-column production. Bentho-pelagic coupling clearly will be altered by Antarctic climate change as patterns of sea-ice cover and water-column recycling vary. However| the nature of such climate-driven changes will be very difficult to predict without further studies of Antarctic benthic ecosystem response to (1) inter-annual variability in export flux| and (2) latitudinal gradients in duration of sea-ice cover and benthic ecosystem function. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7616,2006,3,2,Abatement of greenhouse gases: Does location matter?,Today's climate policy is based on the assumption that the location of emissions reductions has no impact on the overall climate effect. However| this may not be the case since reductions of greenhouse gases generally will lead to changes in emissions of short-lived gases and aerosols. Abatement measures may be primarily targeted at reducing CO2| but may also simultaneously reduce emissions of NOx| CO| CH4 and SO2 and aerosols. Emissions of these species may cause significant additional radiative forcing. We have used a global 3-D chemical transport model and a radiative transfer model to study the impact on climate in terms of radiative forcing for a realistic change in location of the emissions from large-scale sources. Based on an assumed 10% reduction in CO2 emissions| reductions in the emissions of other species have been estimated. Climate impact for the SRES A 1 B scenario is compared to two reduction cases| with the main focus on a case with emission reductions between 2010 and 2030| but also a case with sustained emission reductions. The emission reductions are applied to four different regions (Europe| China| South Asia| and South America). In terms of integrated radiative forcing (over 100 yr)| the total effect (including only the direct effect of aerosols) is always smaller than for CO2 alone. Large variations between the regions are found (53-86% of the CO2 effect). Inclusion of the indirect effects of sulphate aerosols reduces the net effect of measures towards zero. The global temperature responses| calculated with a simple energy balance model| show an initial additional warming of different magnitude between the regions followed by a more uniform reduction in the warming later. A major part of the regional differences can be attributed to differences related to aerosols| while ozone and changes in methane lifetime make relatively small contributions. Emission reductions in a different sector (e.g. transportation instead of large-scale sources) might change this conclusion since the NOx to SO2 ratio in the emissions is significantly higher for transportation than for large-scale sources. The total climate effect of abatement measures thus depends on (i) which gases and aerosols are affected by the measure| (ii) the lifetime of the measure implemented| (iii) time horizon over which the effects are considered| and (iv) the chemical| physical and meteorological conditions in the region. There are important policy implications of the results. Equal effects of a measure cannot be assumed if the measure is implemented in a different region and if several gases are affected. Thus| the design of emission reduction measures should be considered thoroughly before implementation. 7316,2006,3,3,Abatement of SF6 and CF4 using an enhanced kerosene microwave plasma burner,A kerosene microwave plasma burner was presented as a tool for abatement of SF6 and CF4 gases| which cause global warming. The plasma burner operates by injecting kerosene as a liquid hydrocarbon fuel into a microwave plasma torch and by mixing the resultant gaseous hydrogen and carbon compounds with air or oxygen (O-2) gas. The abatement of SF6 and CF4| by making use of the kerosene plasma burner| was conducted in terms of nitrogen (N-2) flow rates. The destruction and removal efficiency of the burner were achieved up to 99.9999% for 0.1 liters per minute (lpm) SF6 in 120 lpm N-2 and 99.3% for 0.05 lpm CF4 in 60 lpm N-2| revealing that the microwave plasma burner can effectively eliminate perfluorocompounds emitted from the semiconductor industries. (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics. 1715,2006,2,4,Above- and belowground net primary production in a temperate mixed deciduous forest,Our current ability to detect and predict changes in forest ecosystem productivity is constrained by several limitations. These include a poor understanding of belowground productivity| the short duration of most analyses| and a need for greater examination of species- or community-specific variability in productivity studies. We quantified aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) over 3 years (1999-2001)| and both belowground NPP (BNPP) and total NPP over 2 years (2000-2001) in both mesic and xeric site community types of the mixed mesophytic forest of southeastern Kentucky to examine landscape variability in productivity and its relation with soil resource [water and nitrogen (N)] availability. Across sites| ANPP was significantly correlated with N availability (R-2 = 0.58| P = 0.028) while BNPP was best predicted by soil moisture content (R-2 = 0.72| P = 0.008). Because of these offsetting patterns| total NPP was unrelated to either soil resource. Interannual variability in growing season precipitation during the study resulted in a 50% decline in mesic site litter production| possibly due to a lag effect following a moderate drought year in 1999. As a result| ANPP in mesic sites declined 27% in 2000 compared to 1999| while xeric sites had no aboveground production differences related to precipitation variability. If global climate change produces more frequent occurrences of drought| then the response of mesic sites to prolonged moisture deficiency and the consequences of shifting carbon (C) allocation on C storage will become important questions. 7424,2006,2,4,Abrupt climatic changes as triggering mechanisms of massive volcanic collapses,Abrupt climate change can trigger volcanic collapses| phenomena that cause the destruction of the entire sector of a volcano| including its summit. During the past 30 ka| major volcanic collapses occurred just after main glacial peaks that ended with rapid deglaciation. Glacial debuttressing| load discharge and fluid circulation coupled with the post-glacial increase of humidity and heavy rains can activate the failure of unstable edifices. Furthermore| significant global warming can be responsible for the collapse of ice-capped unstable volcanoes| an unpredictable hazard that in few minutes can bury inhabited areas. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V. 7654,2006,5,3,Abrupt reversal in ocean overturning during the Palaeocene/Eocene warm period,An exceptional analogue for the study of the causes and consequences of global warming occurs at the Palaeocene/ Eocene Thermal Maximum| 55 million years ago. A rapid rise of global temperatures during this event accompanied turnovers in both marine(1-3) and terrestrial biota(4)| as well as significant changes in ocean chemistry(5|6) and circulation(7|8). Here we present evidence for an abrupt shift in deep-ocean circulation using carbon isotope records from fourteen sites. These records indicate that deep-ocean circulation patterns changed from Southern Hemisphere overturning to Northern Hemisphere overturning at the start of the Palaeocene/ Eocene Thermal Maximum. This shift in the location of deep-water formation persisted for at least 40|000 years| but eventually recovered to original circulation patterns. These results corroborate climate model inferences that a shift in deep-ocean circulation would deliver relatively warmer waters to the deep sea| thus producing further warming(9). Greenhouse conditions can thus initiate abrupt deep-ocean circulation changes in less than a few thousand years| but may have lasting effects; in this case taking 100|000 years to revert to background conditions. 1652,2006,5,4,Accumulation and release of methane from clathrates below the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets,Ice-age cycles are associated with large fluctuations in the concentration of atmospheric methane. These fluctuations are commonly attributed to changes in wetlands| although clathrates have also been proposed as a potential source. We examine the possibility that methane clathrates accumulate below continental ice sheets during an ice age. The source of methane is due to microbial decomposition of organic material below the ice sheet. Methane is stored in clathrate when the pressure and temperature conditions permit thermodynamic stability. Deglaciation releases methane from clathrate into the atmosphere. We use a numerical model for the Laurentide-Cordilleran ice sheet [Marshall| S.J.| Tarasov| L.| Clarke| G.K.C.| Peltier| W.R.| 2000. Glaciological reconstruction of the Laurentide ice sheet: physical processes and modeling challenges| Can. J. Earth Sci. 37| 769-793.] to assess the aerial extent| thickness| and the thermal conditions at the base of the ice sheet as a function of time. Both low and high inventories of the organic carbon below the ice sheet are considered| based on soil carbon estimates for tundra and for the present potential vegetation. We model the spatial distribution of clathrate as the ice sheet grows and quantify the amplitude and timing of methane releases as the ice sheet retreats. The predicted fluctuations in atmospheric methane are 80-200 ppbv| which are comparable to fluctuations recorded in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica. However| clathrates cannot explain the entire atmospheric methane record because there is insufficient methane in clathrate to sustain the elevated atmospheric concentration for more than 1 kyr. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1627,2006,2,2,Adverse high temperature effects on pollen viability| seed-set| seed yield and harvest index of grain-sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] are more severe at elevated carbon dioxide due to higher tissue temperatures,Global climate change| especially| increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and the associated increases in temperature will have significant impact on the crop production. Grain-sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] cultivar DeKalb 28E was grown at daytime maximum/nighttime minimum temperature regimes of 32/22| 36/26| 40/30 and 44/34 degrees C at ambient (350 mu mol CO2 mol(-1)) and elevated (700 mu mol CO2 mol(-1)) CO2 from emergence to maturity in controlled environments to quantify the effects of temperature and CO2 on the reproductive processes and yield. Growth temperatures of 40/30 and 44/34 degrees C inhibited particle emergence. Growth temperatures >= 36/26 degrees C significantly decreased pollen production| pollen viability| seed-set| seed yield and harvest index when compared to 32/22 degrees C. Percentage decreases in pollen viability| seed-set| seed yield and harvest index due to elevated temperature were greater at elevated CO2 when compared with ambient CO2. Elevated CO2 increased seed yield (26%) at 32/22 degrees C| but decreased seed yield (10%) at 36/26 degrees C. At high temperatures| elevated CO2 increased vegetative growth but not seed yield| thus| leading to decreased harvest index. We conclude that the adverse effects of elevated temperature on reproductive processes and yield of grain-sorghum were more severe at elevated CO2 than at ambient CO2; and the beneficial effects of elevated CO2 decreased with increasing temperature. The adverse temperature sensitivity of reproductive processes and yield at elevated CO2 was attributed to higher canopy foliage and seed temperatures. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7446,2006,2,4,Altitudinal genetic variation among Pinus oocarpa populations in Michoacan| Mexico - Implications for seed zoning| conservation| tree breeding and global warming,Pinus oocarpa has a large natural distribution in the sub-tropical forests of Mexico. Populations| however| are rapidly disappearing particularly in the Michoacan State as native forests are converted to avocado (Persea sp.) orchards. We investigated the patterning of genetic variation among R oocarpa populations for quantitative traits along an altitudinal gradient by establishing a provenance/progeny test from wind-pollinated seeds collected along an altitudinal transect (1100-1500 m) near Uruapan| Michoacan| Mexico. Genetic variation was analyzed in relation to normalized climate records (temperature| precipitation| degree days > 5 degrees C and annual moisture index) for the provenances and the test site for the contemporary climate and for climates projected for the decades beginning in 2030| 2060| and 2090. Estimates of future climates used output from the Canadian and Hadley General Circulation Models. Results of a field test suggested an altitudinal pattern of genetic differentiation in juvenile height among P. oocarpa populations. Seedlings from populations originating from lower altitudes tended to grow more than seedlings originating from populations at the higher altitudes. However| this trend abates at the lowest altitudinal limit of the species distribution| a probable conservative growth strategy for avoiding drought stress. Thus| the cline appeared to arise from selection along a climatic gradient reflecting in a moisture index (ratio of degree days to precipitation) and is dependent| therefore| on a balance between temperature and moisture. For guiding seed and seedling transfer in ecological restoration| conservation of genetic resources| tree breeding and mitigating the effects of global warming| we suggest guidelines based on delimitation of three altitudinal seed zones of about 200 m in breadth. Alternatively| one can limit transfer to three climatic zones of about 0.75 units of annual moisture index. Predictions of future climates indicate an average annual temperature increase of 3.8 degrees C by year 2090| and| judging from an increase of an annual moisture index of 26%| an increase in aridity by the end of the century. However| the more difficult period for adaptation of P oocarpa populations to the new climate should be between 2030 and 2060| when the increase in aridity is expected to be most pronounced. Changes of this magnitude should alter the natural distribution of the species and would create an adaptational lag| as the adaptedness of extant populations deteriorates. Mitigating these effects will require seeds to be transferred upwards in altitude| perhaps as much as 150 m initially. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7445,2006,4,4,An accurate analytical solution of a zero-dimensional greenhouse model for global warming,In introducing the complex subject of global warming| books and papers usually use the zero-dimensional greenhouse model. When the ratio of the infrared radiation energy of the Earth's surface that is lost to outer space to the non-reflected average solar radiation energy is small| the model admits an accurate approximate analytical solution - the resulting energy balance equation of the model is a quartic equation that can be solved analytically - and thus provides an alternative solution and instructional strategy. A search through the literature fails to find an analytical solution| suggesting that the solution may be new. In this paper| we review the model| derive the approximation and obtain its solution. The dependence of the temperature of the surface of the Earth and the temperature of the atmosphere on seven parameters is made explicit. A simple and convenient formula for global warming ( or cooling) in terms of the percentage change of the parameters is derived. The dependence of the surface temperature on the parameters is illustrated by several representative graphs. 1661,2006,2,4,An Arctic-breeding bird survey on the northwestern Ungava Peninsula| Quebec| Canada,Knowledge of breeding bird distribution and abundance in the Canadian Arctic remains rudimentary for many species| particularly for shorebirds and songbirds. To help fill this gap| randomly selected plots were surveyed on the northwestern coast of the Ungava Peninsula| Quebec| Canada| during 2002. Thirty-eight species were recorded at 34 sites| where small songbirds were much more frequent than shorebirds. Breeding waterbirds were more abundant at low elevations near the coast| and songbirds tended to be more abundant at higher elevations. A high occurrence of nesting hawks and owls was probably the result of a high lemming population. Information from the survey extended the known breeding ranges of green-winged teal| spotted sandpiper| pectoral sandpiper| dunlin| American golden-plover| Wilson's snipe| and short-eared owl. Further work on the Ungava Peninsula would likely document additional Arctic-breeding bird species. A more thorough knowledge of Arctic-breeding bird distribution will be needed to determine how species might be affected by global climate change. 1609,2006,4,4,An atmosphere-ocean time series model of global climate change,Time series models of global climate change tend to estimate a low climate-sensitivity (equilibrium effect on global temperature of doubling carbon dioxide concentrations) and a fast adjustment rate to equilibrium. These results may be biased by omission of a key variable-heat stored in the ocean. A time series model of the atmosphere-ocean climate system is developed| in which surface temperature (atmospheric temperature over land and sea surface temperature) moves towards a long-run equilibrium with both radiative forcing and ocean heat content| while ocean heat content accumulates the deviations from atmospheric equilibrium. This model is closely related to Granger and Lee's multicointegration model. As there are only 55 years of observations on ocean heat content| the Kalman filter is used to estimate heat content as a latent state variable| which is constrained by the available observations. This method could be applied to other climate change problems where there are only limited observations on key variables. The final model adopted relates surface temperature to the heat content of the upper 300m of the ocean. The resulting parameter estimates are closer to theoretically expected values than those of previous time series models and the estimated climate sensitivity to a doubling of carbon dioxide is 4.4 K. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.
7590,2006,5,4,An ecologically mixed brachiopod fauna from Changhsingian deep-water basin of South China: consequence of end-Permian global warming,The Late Permian Shaiwa Group of the Ziyun area of Guizhou| South China is a deep-water facies succession characterized by deep-water assemblages of pelagic radiolarians| foraminifers| bivalves| ammonoids and brachiopods. Here we report 20 brachiopod species in 18 genera from the uppermost Shaiwa Group. This brachiopod fauna is latest Changhsingian in age and dominated by productides. The palaeoecologic and taphonomic analysis reveals that the brachiopod fauna is preserved in situ. The attachment modes and substratum preference demonstrate that the Shaiwa brachiopod fauna comprises admixed elements of deep-water and shallow-water assemblages. The presence of the shallow-water brachiopods in the Shaiwa faunas indicates the involuntary settlement of shallow-water brachiopods. The stressed ecologic pressure| triggered by warming surface waters| restricted ecospace and short food sources| may have forced some shallow-water elements to move to hospitable deep-water settings and others to modify their habiting behaviours and exploit new ecospace in deep-water environments. We infer that the end-Permian global warming and subsequent transgression event may have accounted for the stressed environmental pressure in the shallow-water communities prior to the end-Permian mass extinction. 7280,2006,2,4,An ENSO shift revisited,An influential 1996 paper presented a statistical analysis showing that the prolonged ENSO warm event of the early 1990's was inconsistent with the historical pattern of ENSO variability and therefore concluded that there had been a shift in ENSO behavior possibly connected to global warming. A fundamental problem with this earlier analysis is that the data used to test for a shift in ENSO behavior were not independent of the data used to identify the hypothetical shift. A new analysis is presented that avoids this problem by using more recent data. The results raise a question about the earlier finding. 1754,2006,4,4,An optimised method for the extraction and analysis of lipid biomarkers from stalagmites,Lipid compositions preserved in stalagmites have significant potential for use in reconstruction of global climate change and regional vegetation cover| but the low organic content of stalagmites poses a problem both for clean extraction and for obtaining a high temporal resolution in palaeoenvironmental records. Here| we present an acid digestion method optimised for cleanliness and maximum lipid recovery. The use of acid digestion and hydrolysis improves lipid yields not only by releasing organic matter trapped within individual calcite crystals| but also by allowing access to the chemically-bound pool of lipids| particularly acidic compounds such as alkanoic acids| hydroxy acids| and alkanedioic acids. The technique also considerably reduces contamination problems in comparison to conventional soxhlet extraction. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1745,2006,3,3,An overview of terrestrial sequestration of carbon dioxide: The United States Department of Energy's fossil energy R&D program,Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) in the Earth's atmosphere have the potential to enhance the natural greenhouse effect| which may result in climatic changes. The main anthropogenic contributors to this increase are fossil fuel combustion| land use conversion| and soil cultivation. It is clear that overcoming the challenge of global climate change will require a combination of approaches| including increased energy efficiency| energy conservation| alternative energy sources| and carbon (C) capture and sequestration. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring the development of new technologies that can provide energy and promote economic prosperity while reducing GHG emissions. One option that can contribute to achieving this goal is the capture and sequestration of CO2 in geologic formations. An alternative approach is C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystsems through natural processes. Enhancing such natural pools (known as natural sequestration) can make a significant contribution to CO2 management strategies with the potential to sequester about 290 Tg C/y in U.S. soils. In addition to soils| there is also a large potential for C sequestration in above and belowground biomass in forest ecosystems. A major area of interest to DOE's fossil energy program is reclaimed mined lands| of which there may be 0.63 x10(6)supercript stop ha in the U.S. These areas are essentially devoid of soil C; therefore| they provide an excellent opportunity to sequester C in both soils and vegetation. Measurement of C in these ecosystems requires the development of new technology and protocols that are accurate and economically viable. Field demonstrations are needed to accurately determine C sequestration potential and to demonstrate the ecological and aesthetic benefits in improved soil and water quality| increased biodiversity| and restored ecosystems. The DOE's research program in natural sequestration highlights fundamental and applied studies| such as the development of measurement| monitoring| and verification technologies and protocols and field tests aimed at developing techniques for maximizing the productivity of hitherto infertile soils and degraded ecosystems. 7337,2006,3,3,Analysis of a novel solar energy-powered Rankine cycle for combined power and heat generation using supercritical carbon dioxide,Theoretical analysis of a solar energy-powered Rankine thermodynamic cycle utilizing an innovative new concept| which uses supercritical carbon dioxide as a working fluid| is presented. In this system| a truly 'natural' working fluid| carbon dioxide| is utilized to generate firstly electricity power and secondly high-grade heat power and low-grade heat power. The uniqueness of the system is in the way in which both solar energy and carbon dioxide| available in abundant quantities in all parts of the world| are simultaneously used to build up a thermodynamic cycle and has the potential to reduce energy shortage and greatly reduce carbon dioxide emissions and global warming| offering environmental and personal safety simultaneously. The system consists of an evacuated solar collector system| a power-generating turbine| a high-grade heat recovery system| a low-grade heat recovery system and a feed pump. The performances of this CO2-based Rankine cycle were theoretically investigated and the effects of various design conditions| namely| solar radiation| solar collector area and CO2 flow rate| were studied. Numerical simulations show that the proposed system may have electricity power efficiency and heat power efficiency as high as 11.4% and 36.2%| respectively. It is also found that the cycle performances strongly depend on climate conditions. Also the electricity power and heat power outputs increase with the collector area and CO2 flow rate. The estimated COPpower and COPheat increase with the CO| flow rate| but decrease with the collector area. The CO2-based cycle can be optimized to provide maximum power| maximum heat recovery or a combination of both. The results suggest the potential of this new concept for applications to electricity power and heat power generation. 1748,2006,4,4,Analysis of features of climate change of Huabei area and the global climate change based on heuristic segmentation algorithm,Global change science is a new research field| and one of the most important topics of which is the climate change study| to which great importance is attached by all governments of the world| and climatic abrupt change is one of manifestations of climate changes. Nowadays| research of climate change is mainly based on climatic proxy using traditional statistical method. However| climatic system is nonlinear| non-stationary and hierarchical| which makes even harder to detect and analyze abrupt climate changes. As well known| climatic system is made up of several sub-systems| and there may be inherent connections between them; however| there is only a few research methods and theories in this field. This article introduces a new detecting method I the heuristic segmentation algorithm| which is well fitted to nonlinear and non-stationary time series. Then| dealing with northern hemisphere tree rings and Beijing stalagmite based on high and low frequency series| we try to distinguish abrupt changes in different scales and disclose its physial mechanism. Defining a new physical quantity| the abrupt density| and analyzing the distribution characteristics of abrupt changes before and after 1000 a| We take Huabei area's climatic change as an example to explore the inherent connections between local and global areas. 7370,2006,3,4,Analysis of long-range clean energy investment scenarios for Eritrea| East Africa,We discuss energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE/RE) investments in Eritrea from the strategic long-term economic perspective of meeting Eritrea's sustainable development goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. EE/RE are potentially important contributors to national productive capital accumulation| enhancement of the environment| expansion of energy services| increases in household standard of living| and improvements in health. In this study| we develop a spreadsheet model for calculating some of the national benefits and costs of different levels of investment in EE/RE. We then present the results of the model in terms of investment demand and investment scenario curves. These curves express the contribution that efficiency and renewable energy projects can make in terms of reduced energy sector operating expenses| and reduced carbon emissions. We provide demand and supply curves that show the rate of return| the cost of carbon emissions reductions vs. supply| and the evolution of the marginal carbon emissions per dollar of GDP for different investment levels and different fuel-type subsectors. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7478,2006,3,4,Analysis of the impact of electricity grid interconnection between Korea and Japan - Feasibility study for energy network in Northeast Asia,This study analyzes the impact of an electricity grid interconnection between Korea and Japan oil their energy systems. Both countries seriously consider energy security as the most important policy issue because of it lack of domestic energy resources. In addition| public concern for the environment is recently rising LIP in response to the global warming. Electricity grid interconnection has strong potential to cope with such complicated problems cost-effectively. We have developed the interconnection model| which includes the electricity grid interconnection between the electricity sectors of Korea and Japan| considering both technological and economic efficiency. The result of the study reveals the significant cost-effectiveness of the interconnection| in particular| under stringent condition Such its nuclear phase-out in Japan and CO| emission target in Korea and Japan. In the case that Japan's nuclear power plants will be phased out| the interconnection attains further cost reduction of constructing substitutive thermal power plants. On the other hand| when Korea and Japan set a joint CO2 emission target| it achieves the emission target more efficiently than they reduce the emission individually. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7301,2006,2,4,Annual variation in the distribution of summer snowdrifts in the Kosciuszko alpine area| Australia| and its effect on the composition and structure of alpine vegetation,Australian alpine ecosystems are expected to diminish in extent as global warming intensifies. Alpine vegetation patterns are influenced by the duration of snow cover including the presence of snowdrifts in summer| but there is little quantitative information on landscape-scale relationships between vegetation patterns and the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts in the Australian alps. We mapped annual changes in summer snowdrifts in the Kosciuszko alpine region| Australia| from Landsat TM images and modelled the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts from long-term records (1954-2003) of winter snow depth. We then compared vegetation composition and structure among four classes that differed in the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts. We found a curvilinear relationship between annual winter snow depth and the area occupied by persistent snowdrifts in the following summer (r(2) = 0.9756). Only 21 ha (0.42% of study area) was predicted to have supported summer snowdrifts in 80% of the past 50 years| while 440 ha supported persistent summer snow in 10% of years. Mean cover and species richness of vascular plants declined significantly| and species composition varied significantly| as the frequency of summer snow persistence increased. Cushion plants and rushes were most abundant where summer snowdrifts occurred most frequently| and shrubs| grasses and sedges were most abundant in areas that did not support snowdrifts in summer. The results demonstrate strong regional relationships between vegetation composition and structure and the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts. Reductions in winter snow depth due to global warming are expected to lead to substantial reductions in the extent of persistent summer snowdrifts. As a consequence| shrubs| grasses and sedges are predicted to expand at the expense of cushion plants and rushes| reducing landscape vegetation diversity. Fortunately| few vascular plant species (e.g. Ranunculus niphophilus) appear to be totally restricted to areas where summer snow occurs most frequently. The results from this study highlight potential indicator species that could be monitored to assess the effects of global warming on Australian alpine environments. 1714,2006,2,4,Antarctic birds breed later in response to climate change,In the northern hemisphere| there is compelling evidence for climate-related advances of spring events| but no such long-term biological time series exist for the southern hemisphere. We have studied a unique data set of dates of first arrival and laying of first eggs over a 55-year period for the entire community of Antarctic seabirds in East Antarctica. The records over this long period show a general unexpected tendency toward later arrival and laying| an inverse trend to those observed in the northern hemisphere. Overall| species now arrive at their colonies 9.1 days later| on average| and lay eggs an average of 2.1 days later than in the early 1950s. Furthermore| these delays are linked to a decrease in sea ice extent that has occurred in eastern Antarctica| which underlies the contrasted effects of global climate change on species in Antarctica. 1760,2006,4,4,Application of Landsat-7 satellite data and a DEM for the quantification of thermokarst-affected terrain types in the periglacial Lena-Anabar coastal lowland,Extensive parts of Arctic permafrost-dominated lowlands were affected by large-scale permafrost degradation| mainly through Holocene thermokarst activity. The effect of thermokarst is nowadays observed in most periglacial lowlands of the Arctic. Since permafrost degradation is a consequence as well as a significant factor of global climate change| it is necessary to develop efficient methods for the quantification of its past and current magnitude. We developed a procedure for the quantification of periglacial lowland terrain types with a focus on degradation features and applied it to the Cape Mamontov Klyk area in the western Laptev Sea region. Our terrain classification approach was based on a combination of geospatial datasets| including a supervised maximum likelihood classification applied to Landsat-7 ETM+ data and digital elevation data. Thirteen final terrain surface classes were extracted and subsequently characterized in terms of relevance to thermokarst and degradation of ice-rich deposits. 78% of the investigated area was estimated to be affected by permafrost degradation. The overall classification accuracy was 79%. Thermokarst did not develop evenly on the coastal plain| as indicated by the increasingly dense coverage of thermokarst-related areas from south to north. This regionally focused procedure can be extended to other areas to provide the highly detailed periglacial terrain mapping capabilities currently lacking in global-scale permafrost datasets. 7449,2006,3,4,Application of life cycle assessment for the environmental certificate of the Mercedes-Benz S-Class,Background| Aims and Scope. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used as a tool for design for environment (DfE) to improve the environmental performance of the Mercedes Car Group products. For the new S-Class model a brochure including an environmental certificate and comprehensive data for the product was published for the first time. The paper explains the use of LCA for these applications and presents exemplary results. Methods. The environmental certificate brochure reports on processes| data and results based on the international standards for life cycle assessment (ISO 14040| ISO 14041| ISO 14042| ISO 14043)| for environmental labels and declarations (ISO 14020| ISO 14021) and for the integration of environmental aspects into product design and development (ISO 14062)| which are accepted by all stakeholders. Results and Discussion. The compliance with these international standards and the correctness of the information contained in the certificate were reviewed and certified by independent experts. The global warming potential (GWP 100 years) of the new S-Class vehicle was reduced by 6%| the acidification potential by 2%| the eutrophication potential by 13% and the photochemical ozone creation potential by 9%. In addition| the use of parts made from renewable materials was increased by 73 percent to a total of 27 parts with a weight of about 43 kilograms. A total of 45 parts with a weight of 21.2 kilograms can be manufactured using a percentage of recycled plastics. Conclusion. The application of LCA for WE is fully integrated as a standard function in the vehicle development process. The DfE/LCA approach at the Mercedes Car Group was successful in improving the environmental performance of the new S-Class. It is shown that the objective of improving the environmental performance of the new S-Class model| compared to the previous one| was achieved. Recommendation and Outlook. Vehicles are complex products with very complex interactions with the environment. Therefore| simple solutions| e.g. pure focus on fuel economy or light weighting or recycling or single material strategies| are bound to fail. It is a main task of DfF and LCA to take this fact into account and come up with more intelligent solutions. The application of LCAs for WE and their integration as standard practice in the product development process is both the most demanding and the most rewarding. It requires a substantial effort to acquire the know-how| the data| the experience and the tools needed to generate meaningful results just in time. However| this is the way how LCA and DfE can add value - they have to be 'built' into the product. 1642,2006,2,4,Aquatic plants diversity in arid zones of Northwest China: patterns| threats and conservation,We investigated aquatic plant diversity by conducting the field investigation and collecting the published data in the arid regions of Northwest China. Two hundred and twenty four taxa of vascular aquatic plants representing 64 genera and 34 families occur in this area| 8.48% of which are endemic. Among these| 1 genus and 6 species were new state records and 1 family| 9 genera and 29 species were new area records. Typhaceae| Potamogetonaceae| Juncaginaceae and Haloragaceae were the most frequent families (considering relative frequency of occurrence)| whereas Cyperaceae| Potamogetonaceae and Ranuncnlaceae are the most species-rich. The most frequent genera were Typha| Potamogeton| and Triglochin| and the most species-rich were Potamogeton| Eleocharis and Scirpus. The most frequent species are Triglochin palustre| Myriophyllum spicatum| Potamogeton pectinatus and Typha angustifolia. Aquatic plants diversity is distributed unevenly in the region. The maximum species occurs in Dzungarian basin while the least species in Hexi corridor. The aquatic flora in arid zone of China is not distinctive although some endemic species are found| most species are widely distributed. Local aquatic plants diversity can be influenced by many factors such as hydrological alteration| habitat loss| over-grazing| high human population pressure| global climate change| an inappropriate economic development policy. Among them| the largest threat to aquatic plants biodiversity may be habitat loss due to hydrological alteration. In order to conserve the aquatic plants biological resources and biodiversity in this region| some strategies and measures must be suggested including strengthening scientific research and biodiversity education in the local people| balancing economic development and ecological conservation| and enhancing governmental assistance and subsidy to the local residents. 7249,2006,2,2,Arctic climate change with a 2 degrees C global warming: Timing| climate patterns and vegetation change,The signatories to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are charged with stabilizing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous interference with the climate system. A number of nations| organizations and scientists have suggested that global mean temperature should not rise over 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels. However| even a relatively moderate target of 2 degrees C has serious implications for the Arctic| where temperatures are predicted to increase at least 1.5 to 2 times as fast as global temperatures. High latitude vegetation plays a significant role in the lives of humans and animals| and in the global energy balance and carbon budget. These ecosystems are expected to be among the most strongly impacted by climate change over the next century. To investigate the potential impact of stabilization of global temperature at 2 degrees C| we performed a study using data from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios| the BIOME4 biogeochemistry-biogeography model| and remote sensing data. GCM data were used to predict the timing and patterns of Arctic climate change under a global mean warming of 2 degrees C. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra and six forest biomes was used to develop a map of observed Arctic vegetation. BIOME4 was used to simulate the vegetation distributions over the Arctic at the present and for a range of 2 degrees C global warming scenarios. The GCMs simulations indicate that the earth will have warmed by 2 degrees C relative to preindustrial temperatures by between 2026 and 2060| by which stage the area-mean annual temperature over the Arctic (60-90 degrees N) will have increased by between 3.2 and 6.6 degrees C. Forest extent is predicted by BIOME4 to increase in the Arctic on the order of 3 x 10(6) km(2) or 55% with a corresponding 42% reduction in tundra area. Tundra types generally also shift north with the largest reductions in the prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra| where nearly 60% of habitat is lost. Modeled shifts in the potential northern limit of trees reach up to 400 km from the present tree line| which may be limited by dispersion rates. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to ca. 475 ppm) at high latitudes were small compared with the effects of the change in climate. The increase in forest area of the Arctic could sequester 600 Pg of additional carbon| though this effect is unlikely to be realized over next century. 7400,2006,5,3,Arctic hydrology during global warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum,The Palaeocene/ Eocene thermal maximum represents a period of rapid| extreme global warming similar to 55 million years ago| superimposed on an already warm world(1-3). This warming is associated with a severe shoaling of the ocean calcite compensation depth(4) and a > 2.5 per mil negative carbon isotope excursion in marine and soil carbonates(1-4). Together these observations indicate a massive release of C-13- depleted carbon(4) and greenhouse- gas-induced warming. Recently| sediments were recovered from the central Arctic Ocean(5)| providing the first opportunity to evaluate the environmental response at the North Pole at this time. Here we present stable hydrogen and carbon isotope measurements of terrestrial- plant- and aquatic- derived n- alkanes that record changes in hydrology| including surface water salinity and precipitation| and the global carbon cycle. Hydrogen isotope records are interpreted as documenting decreased rainout during moisture transport from lower latitudes and increased moisture delivery to the Arctic at the onset of the Palaeocene/ Eocene thermal maximum| consistent with predictions of poleward storm track migrations during global warming(6). The terrestrial- plant carbon isotope excursion ( about -4.5 to -6 per mil) is substantially larger than those of marine carbonates. Previously| this offset was explained by the physiological response of plants to increases in surface humidity(2). But this mechanism is not an effective explanation in this wet Arctic setting| leading us to hypothesize that the true magnitude of the excursion - and associated carbon input was greater than originally surmised. Greater carbon release and strong hydrological cycle feedbacks may help explain the maintenance of this unprecedented warmth. 1762,2006,5,4,Arctic Siberia: refuge of the Mammoth fauna in the Holocene,Global climate change at the end of Pleistocene led to extinction in the huge territories of Northern Eurasia of the typical representatives of the Mammoth fauna: mammoth| woolly rhinoceros| wild horse| bison| musk-ox| and cave lion. Undoubtedly the Mammoth fauna underwent pressure from Upper Paleolithic humans| whose hunting activity could also have played a role in decreasing the number of mammoths and other representatives of megafauna. Formerly it was supposed that the megafauna of the "Mammoth complex" had become extinct by the beginning of the Holocene. Nevertheless the latest data indicate that extinction of the Mammoth fauna was significantly delayed in the north of Eastern Siberia. In the 1990s some radiocarbon dates established that mammoths existed in the Holocene on Wrangel Island-from 7700 until 3700 yBP. Radiocarbon data show that wild horses inhabited the north of Eastern Siberia 4600-2000 yBP. Muskoxen lived here about 3000 yBP. Some bison remains from Eastern Siberia belong to the Holocene. The following circumstances could promote the survival of representatives of Mammoth fauna. Cool and dry climate in this region promotes the maintenance of steppe associations-the habitats of those mammals. Late Paleolithic and Mesolithic settlements are not found in the Arctic zone of Eastern Siberia from Taimyr Peninsula to the lower Yana River; they are very rare in basins of the Indigirka and Kolyma Rivers. The small number of Stone Age hunting tribes in the northern part of Eastern Siberia was probably another factor that contributed to the survival of some Mammoth fauna representatives. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 1675,2006,2,4,Are dust storm activities in North China related to Arctic ice-snow cover?,The generation and development of dust storms are controlled by land surface conditions and atmospheric circulations. The latter| in turn| is influenced by the global ice-snow cover. In this study| we examine the relationship between the characteristics of dust storm activities in north China and the changes of global climate patterns. In particular| we are interested in whether Arctic ice-snow cover is related to the dust storm frequencies and intensities in north China. Our analysis| based on the monthly data for the period from 1954 to 1994| shows that this is indeed the case. This result suggests that the Arctic ice-snow cover can be used for the long-term prediction of dust storm activities in north China| and dust storm activities also serve as an indicator of global climate change. (C) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V. 1621,2006,4,4,Assessing Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE aerosol climatology using satellite and ground-based measurements: A comparison study,A physically based aerosol climatology is important to address questions of global climate change. We evaluate the aerosol climatology used in the GISS ModelE (Schmidt et al.| 2006)| by characterizing and comparing the geographic distribution and seasonal variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and particle size via Angstrom exponent (A) against available satellite and ground-based measurements| i.e.| MODIS| MISR| POLDER| AVHRR| and AERONET data. There are a number of model parameters| particularly those related to aerosol size specification| that can be better constrained by comparison to satellite data. Our comparison shows that there are large differences in the satellite and ground-based global distributions of AOD. The differences between the observations increase for the Angstrom exponent. Given the uncertainties associated with satellite retrieval results| the agreement in the distributions of global optical depth between GCM aerosols and satellite data is qualitatively reasonable. However| the Angstrom exponent of the GCM aerosol is clearly biased low compared to satellite data| implying that the GCM aerosol sizes are overestimated. There is qualitative agreement of the ModelE aerosol single scattering albedo pi with TOMS Aerosol Index (AI) and AERONET data. The comparisons show insufficient aerosol absorption at most locations| suggesting a possible underestimation of black carbon distributions in the GCM. However| a more quantitative comparison first requires a readjustment of the GCM aerosol size specification. 7680,2006,2,2,Assessment of environmental effects of the coal used in the Seyitomer thermal power plant (Turkey) on white willow,Thermal power plants increase local pollution through SO x | NO x | volatile organic compounds (VOCs)| and oils containing primarily particulates (including heavy metals) and increase global pollution through CO2 | the greenhouse gas that causes global warming. These strong pollutants have harmful effects on living organisms and the entire ecosystem. In this study| we analysized the heavy metals iron (Fe)| cadmium (Cd)| chromium (Cr)| copper (Cu)| zinc (Zn)| lead (Pb)| nickel (Ni)| and sulfur (S) induced by sulfur dioxide found in the both washed and unwashed leaves of Salix alba L. tree| grown in six distinct localities in the vicinity of the Seyitomer thermal power plant| to assess the environmental impact. All parameters were examined in the surface soils (0-30 cm)| and the most intense concentration of the pollutants in both soils and leaves was observed to be in the direction of the prevailing wind. 7520,2006,4,1,Assessment of twentieth-century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models,Historical climate simulations of the period 1861-2000 using two new Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate models (CM2.0 and CM2.1) are compared with observed surface temperatures. All-forcing runs include the effects of changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases| ozone| sulfates| black and organic carbon| volcanic aerosols| solar flux| and land cover. Indirect effects of tropospheric aerosols on clouds and precipitation processes are not included. Ensembles of size 3 (CM2.0) and 5 (CM2.1) with all forcings are analyzed| along with smaller ensembles of natural-only and anthropogenic-only forcing| and multicentury control runs with no external forcing. Observed warming trends on the global scale and in many regions are simulated more realistically in the all-forcing and anthropogenic-only forcing runs than in experiments using natural-only forcing or no external forcing. In the all-forcing and anthropogenic-only forcing runs| the model shows some tendency for too much twentieth-century warming in lower latitudes and too little warming in higher latitudes. Differences in Arctic Oscillation behavior between models and observations contribute substantially to an underprediction of the observed warming over northern Asia. In the all-forcing and natural-only forcing runs| a temporary global cooling in the models during the 1880s not evident in the observed temperature records is volcanically forced. El Nino interactions complicate comparisons of observed and simulated temperature records for the El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo eruptions during the early 1980s and early 1990s. The simulations support previous findings that twentieth-century global warming has resulted from a combination of natural and anthropogenic forcing| with anthropogenic forcing being the dominant cause of the pronounced late-twentieth-century warming. The regional results provide evidence for an emergent anthropogenic warming signal over many| if not most| regions of the globe. The warming signal has emerged rather monotonically in the Indian Ocean/western Pacific warm pool during the past half-century. The tropical and subtropical North Atlantic and the tropical eastern Pacific are examples of regions where the anthropogenic warming signal now appears to be emerging from a background of more substantial multidecadal variability. 7437,2006,5,4,Asymmetric vegetation responses to mid-Holocene aridity at the prairie-forest ecotone in south-central Minnesota,The mid-Holocene (ca. 8000-4000 cal yr BP) was a time of marked aridity throughout much of Minnesota| and the changes due to mid-Holocene aridity are seen as an analog for future responses to global warming. In this study| we compare the transition into (ca. 9000-7000 yr ago) and out of (ca. 5000-2500 yr ago) the mid-Holocene (MH) period at Kimble Pond and Sharkey Lake| located along the prairie forest ecotone in south-central Minnesota| using high resolution (similar to 5-36yr) sampling of pollen| charcoal| sediment magnetic and loss-on-ignition properties. Changes in vegetation were asymmetrical with increasing aridity being marked by a pronounced shift from woodland/forest-dominated landscape to a more open mix of grassland and woodland/savanna. In contrast| at the end of the MH| grassland remained an important component of the landscape despite increasing effective moisture| and high charcoal influxes (median 2.7-4.0 vs. 0.6-1.7mm(2) cm(-2) yr(-1) at start of MH) suggest the role of fire in limiting woodland expansion. Asymmetric vegetation responses| variation among and within proxies| and the near-absence of fire today suggest caution in using changes associated with mid-Holocene aridity at the prairie forest boundary as an analog for future responses to global warming. (c) 2006 University of Washington. All rights reserved. 7455,2006,2,4,Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005,The 2005 North Atlantic hurricane season ( 1 June to 30 November) was the most active on record by several measures| surpassing the very active season of 2004 and causing an unprecedented level of damage. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) region critical for hurricanes (10 degrees to 20 degrees N) were at record high levels in the extended summer ( June to October) of 2005 at 0.9 degrees C above the 1901 - 70 normal and were a major reason for the record hurricane season. Changes in TNA SSTs are associated with a pattern of natural variation known as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). However| previous AMO indices are conflated with linear trends and a revised AMO index accounts for between 0 and 0.1 degrees C of the 2005 SST anomaly. About 0.45 degrees C of the SST anomaly is common to global SST and is thus linked to global warming and| based on regression| about 0.2 degrees C stemmed from after-effects of the 2004 - 05 El Nino. 7498,2006,4,4,Atmospheric electric fields at the Kennedy Space Center| 1997-2005: No evidence for effects of global warming or modulation by galactic cosmic rays,Near surface| atmospheric voltage gradients [E-z] measured at 31 sites of the Kennedy Space Center [KSC]| between Aug. 1997 and Dec. 2005| averaged 162.5 +/- 3.5 V/m| positive upward| with a standard deviation of 21.4 V/m and an apparent trend of + 0.40 +/- 1.04 %/ yr. That is| no significant positive trend| predicted to be a consequence of global warming| yet rises above the noise. The correlation of E-z with a monthly index of galactic cosmic rays at Haleakala| Hawaii| was - 0.07 +/- 0.18| for periods between 2 and 25 months. That is| no significant short-period effect of solar-magnetically modulated cosmic-ray flux on E-z was observed at KSC| during this epoch. 7550,2006,3,4,Atmospheric lifetime and global warming potential of a perfluoropolyether,Perfluoropolyethers (PFPEs) are a family of perfluorinated fluids used mainly in industrial applications. Lower molecular weight commercial PFPE fractions have boiling points ranging between 55 and 270 degrees C| and have the potential to escape into the atmosphere. To improve our understanding of the atmospheric chemistry of PFPEs| a distilled fraction of a commercial mixture containing perfluoropolymethylisopropyl ethers (PFPMIEs) was introduced into an atmospheric chamber system. Relative rate techniques were used to determine upper limits for the rate constants for reactions of OH and Cl with PFPMIE in 700 Torr of air at 296 K. The reactivity of PFPMIE with Cl was less than 2 x 10(-17) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| while the reactivity with OH was less than 6.8 x 10(-16) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| indicating low reactivity in the troposphere. Consequently|the lifetime of PFPMIE should be limited by transport to the mesosphere| where photolysis by Lyman-alpha radiation at 121.6 nm will be efficient. By analogy to perfluorinated alkanes| the lower limit for the total atmospheric lifetime is 800 years. PFPMIE was shown to have instantaneous radiative forcing of 0.65 W m(-2) ppb(-1)| which corresponds to a global warming potential on a 100 year time scale of 9000 relative to CO2 and 1.95 relative to CFC-11. 7386,2006,3,4,Attributional and consequential environmental assessment of the shift to lead-free solders,Goal| Scope| Background. As of July V| 2006| lead will be banned in most solder pastes used in the electronics industry. This has called for environmental evaluation of alternatives to tin-lead solders. Our life cycle assessment (LCA) has two aims: (i) to compare attributional and consequential LCA methodologies| and (ii) to compare a SnPb solder (62 % tin| 3 6 % lead| 2 % silver) to a Pbfree solder (95.5% tin| 3.8% silver| 0.7% copper). Methods. An attributional LCA model describes the environmental impact of the solder life cycle. Ideally| it should include average data on each unit process within the life cycle. The model does not include unit processes other than those of the life cycle investigated| but significant cut-offs within the life cycle can be avoided through the use of environmentally expanded input-output tables. A consequential LCA model includes unit processes that are significantly affected irrespective of whether they are within or outside the life cycle. Ideally| it should include marginal data on bulk production processes in the background system. Our Consequential LCA model includes economic partial equilibrium models of the lead and scrap lead markets. However| both our LCA models are based on data from the literature or from individual production sites. The partial equilibrium models are based on assumptions. The life cycle impact assessment is restricted to global warming potential (GWP). Results and Discussion. The attributional LCA demonstrates the obvious fact that the shift from SnPb to Pb-free solder means that lead is more or less eliminated from the solder life cycle. The attributional LCA results also indicate that the Pb-free option contributes 10 % more to the GWP than SnPb. Despite the poor quality of the data| the consequential LCA demonstrates that| when lead use is eliminated from the solder life cycle| the effect is partly offset by increased lead use in batteries and other products. This shift can contribute to environmental improvement because lead emissions are likely to be greatly reduced| while batteries can contribute to reducing GXW| thereby offsetting part of the GWP increase in the solder life cycle. Conclusions. The shift from SnPb to Pb-free solder is likely to result in reduced lead emissions and increased GXW. Attributional and consequential LCAs yield complementary knowledge on the consequences of this shift in solder pastes. At present| consequential LCA is hampered by the lack of readily available marginal data and the lack of input data to economic partial equilibrium models. However| when the input to a consequential LCA model is in the form of quantitative assumptions based on a semi-qualitative discussion| the model can still generate new knowledge. Recommendations and Outlook. Experts on partial equilibrium models should be involved in consequential LCA modeling in order to improve the input data on price elasticity| marginal production| and marginal consumption. 1615,2006,5,4,Atypical delta(15)N variations at the southern boundary of the East Pacific oxygen minimum zone over the last 50 ka,We report a nitrogen isotope record (ODP Site 1233) from the southern Chile margin at 41 degrees S. The site is located slightly south of the southern boundary of the Peru-Chile upwelling system and the associated oxygen minimum zone off Peru and northern Chile. We show that our nitrogen isotope record| from the time interval 0-50 calendar kiloyears before present (ka B.P.)| bears an atypical pattern both in shape and timing when compared with records obtained from either the continental margin of the eastern Pacific or the Subantarctic Zone (SAZ) of the Southern Ocean. The delta(15)N values at Site 1233 are relatively high throughout the record| varying between 9 parts per thousand. and 13 parts per thousand. The iriajor features are a pronounced delta(15)N increase at the beginning of the deglaciation| a maximum from 19 to 10 ka B.P.; thereafter a large decrease during the early Holocene| and millenial scale oscillations showing an Antarctic timing. We propose that the record results from an amalgam of low-latitude and high-latitude processes. Low-latitude processes| including a stronger advection signal of heavy nitrates from the denitrifying zones off Peru and northern Chile| would explain the timing of the deglaciation rise and the heaviest values found over this interval| excluding the Antarctic Cold Reversal period. The overall differences between site 1233 and records from Peru and northwest American margins suggest however that the origin of the delta(15)N signal off Chile is largely controlled by hydrologic and climatic changes in the Southern Ocean. We propose that the interplay between nutrient demand in the SAZ and latitudinal shifts of hydrologic fronts controlled both the concentrations and the isotopic signature of the remaining nitrate delivered to the Chile margin. Then| the glacial surface waters of the southern Chile margin were likely lower in nitrate concentration and bear a higher delta(15)N than during interglacial periods. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7365,2006,2,4,Baseline expression of heat-shock proteins (HSPs) of a "thermotolerant" Mediterranean marine species largely influenced by natural temperature fluctuations,Northwestern Mediterranean warming-related disease outbreaks and species shifts have recently been documented. Biomarkers of short-term effects on the health or resistance of organisms are necessary to assess and understand mechanisms affecting marine biodiversity. Heat-shock protein (HSP) expression was here believed to present finer variations than previously reported in experimental studies| which we tested to assess HSP sensitivity and relevance in the global warming context. One population of the "thermophilic" marine cave mysid Hemimysis margalefi was monitored over 4 years. Three HSPs presented recurrent expression. Among them| HSP50 and HSP60 expressions varied seasonally with environmental temperature. HSP60 expression displayed the greatest variability and was most closely related to temperature fluctuations. Multiple regression showed that while the main stressor was temperature| demographic variables (proportion of immatures| proportion of gravid females) also influenced expression variability. Such a monitoring of HSP baseline expression in a natural population had only rarely been conducted. HSPs are| however| good biomarkers to evaluate the effects of warming episodes or heat stress in the wild. This study provides essential spatial and temporal reference for further experimental and in situ analyses and is a prerequisite to diagnostic and predictive approaches. 1674,2006,3,3,Beyond Kyoto: A tax-based system for the global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions,The Kyoto Protocol represents an initial step in terms of solving the problem of global climate change. However| as with most first steps| the Kyoto Protocol must be followed by a full journey in order to reach the desired goal of preventing catastrophic global warming. The Kyoto Protocol does not lead to the necessary decline in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases| particularly because emissions of developing countries are not specifically addressed in the Protocol. We suggest a new agreement based on carbon taxes as a possibility to build upon the Kyoto Protocol and eventually freeze atmospheric concentrations at a level that prevents catastrophic climate change. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7372,2006,3,3,Biogas production from the organic fraction of municipal solid waste,This article discusses the potential use of biogas from municipal landfills to fuel urban heat space in Turkey. Biogas can be obtained from digesting the organic material of municipal solid wastes (MSW). The composition of MSW varies by the source of waste; however| in all cases the major constituents of MSW are organic in nature and the organics account for more than 50% of MSW. The main constituents of landfill gas are methane and carbon dioxide| both of which are major contributors to global warming. The generation of methane is worthwhile after one year from the start of the landfill operation. The compositional characteristics of MSW vary considerably from the large cities to the small towns and regions in Turkey. The social and demographic factors for each region are very different. 7515,2006,2,4,Biogeographical variation in the population density of wild boar (Sus scrofa) in western Eurasia,Aim We reviewed 54 studies reporting population densities of wild boar (Sus scrofa) in western Eurasia in order to investigate the roles of vegetation productivity [fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) index]| winter harshness (mean January temperature) and presence/absence of wolves (Canis lupus) in shaping the biogeographical variation in population density of wild boar. Location We collected published data on the autumn-winter population density of wild boar (number of individuals km(-2)) in 54 locations in western Eurasia| from 1966 to 2003. Methods The mean January temperature| obtained from the World Climate data base (http://www.worldclimate.com)| was taken as a measure of winter severity. We used monthly 4 x 4 km MODIS FPAR data sets covering January 2000 to June 2004 to calculate the vegetation productivity index. In addition| we collected literature data about the presence or absence of wolves from the study areas. Results In the geographical span of 37-60 degrees N| the population densities of wild boar declined by three orders of magnitude| from 10 to 0.01 individuals km(-2). The best multiple regression model (selected with the Akaike information criterion corrected for small samples) showed that mean January temperature and the vegetation productivity index were the most important factors explaining the biogeographical variation in population densities of wild boar. The impact of temperature was stronger than that of productivity. The presence of wolves had a weak limiting effect on population densities of wild boar at the biogeographical scale. Main conclusion We propose that winter harshness imposes density-independent mortality on wild boar populations at higher latitudes. Competition for food in less productive regions may cause stronger density dependence in birth and death rates of wild boar populations. We expect that wild boar will respond to global warming by both an increase in local population densities and an expansion of their geographical range north and north-eastwards. 7496,2006,3,2,Biorefinery: opportunities and barriers for petro-chemical industries,Recent climate changes have confirmed that global warming is the most pervasive threat to delicate ecosystem of our planet and there is an urgent need on world-wide basis to control and reduce the CO2 emissions. Time has come for both research institutes and industries to follow an environmental sustainable path and develop new technologies based on renewable biomass independent of fossil fuels. Among various products| the bio-plastics and natural fiber composites represent a significant potential of growth and success by utilizing renewable feedstock. 7308,2006,2,4,Body size changes among otters| Lutra lutra| in Norway: the possible effects of food availability and global warming,Using museum data of adult specimens whose sex| age| and locality are known| we studied temporal and geographical body size trends among the otter| Lutra lutra| in Norway. We found that body size of the otters increased during the last quarter of the twentieth century| and suggest that this trend is related to increased food availability from fish farming and possibly also to energy saving due to elevated sea temperatures. Birth year and death year explained 38.8 and 43.5%| respectively| of the variation in body size. Body size of otters was positively related to latitude| thus conforming to Bergmann's rule. 7393,2006,4,4,Calculations on the structure| vibrational spectrum| and enthalpy of formation of pentafluoronitrosulfane| SF5NO2,G2 and G3 calculations have been performed to determine the minimum-energy geometry| vibrational frequencies| and enthalpy of formation of SF5NO2| a recently synthesized compound that may act as a greenhouse gas. The strength of the S-N bond has been estimated| as scission of this bond may be the determining factor in the global warming potential of the compound. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1749,2006,4,4,Calibrating remotely sensed chlorophyll-a data by using penalized regression splines,The distribution and biomass of phytoplankton in the upper layers of the ocean are important indicators of productivity and carbon cycling. Large scale perturbations in phytoplankton are linked to global climate change| so accurate monitoring is increasingly important. The chlorophyll-a pigment concentration in the water is routinely measured as an index of algal biomass. Direct water sampling from ships and moorings provides accurate data| but woefully poor spatial and temporal coverage of the oceans. In contrast| multispectral sea surface reflectance data from orbiting satellite-borne sensors| which in principle can be used to derive pigment concentration| give the prospect of globally detailed spatial and temporal coverage. Unfortunately| there are some locally variable confounding factors| which the algorithms for converting reflectance data to ocean chlorophyll-a concentration do not take into account. Hence| statistical methods are needed to obtain accurate predictions of chlorophyll-a. concentration by using data from both these sources. We use penalized regression splines to model water sample data as a three-dimensional function of satellite measurements| seabed depth and time of year. The models are effectively complex calibrations of the satellite data against the bottle data. We compare the results by using thin plate regression splines and tensor product splines using generalized cross-validation to choose the relative amounts of smoothing for each of the covariates. Since the thin plate spline penalty functional is isotropic| this requires the introduction of two scaling parameters| which are also chosen by generalized cross-validation| to scale the covariates relatively to one another. The tensor product spline smooths each covariate appropriately by use of separate smoothing parameters for each covariate. The models are tested by application to data from the north-east Atlantic| first randomly subsampling the data to achieve even coverage over the entire region. Both approaches perform equally well| achieving R-2 approximate to 65%| both for the data that are used to fit the model and for a validation data set. Of particular concern in this application is that monthly predictions from the models should be biologically plausible over the whole region| describing the broad regional features that are apparent in the satellite data and extrapolating sensibly where satellite data are not available. To achieve this| the satellite data must be one of the covariates in the model; spatiotemporal covariates alone are not sufficient to extrapolate sensibly into areas where no data are available. 1724,2006,2,4,Can the invaded range of a species be predicted sufficiently using only native-range data? Lehmann lovegrass (Eragrostis lehmanniana) in the southwestern United States,Predictions of species invasions are often made using information from their native ranges. Acquisition of native-range information can be very costly and time-consuming and in some cases may not reflect conditions in the invaded range. Using information from the invaded range can enable much faster modeling at finer geographic resolutions than using information from a species' native range. We used confirmed presence points from the native range| southern Africa| and the invaded range| the southwestern United States| to predict the potential distribution of the perennial bunchgrass Eragrostis lehmanniana Nees| (Lehmann lovegrass)| in its invaded range in the United States. The two models showed strong agreement for the area encompassed by the presence points in the invaded range| and offered insight into the overlapping but slightly different ecological niche occupied by the introduced grass in the invaded range. Regions outside of the scope of inference showed less agreement between the two models. E. lehmanniana was selected via seeding trials before being planted in the United States and therefore represents an isolated genotype from the native-range population. Models built using confirmed presence points from the invaded range can provide insight into how the selected genotype is expressed on the landscape and considers influences not present in the native range. Models created from locations in both the invaded and native ranges can lead to a more complete understanding of an introduced species' potential for spread| especially in the case of anthropogenic selection. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1717,2006,3,2,Carbon flows and carbon use in the German anthroposphere: An inventory,Today| global climate change is one of the most urgent environmental problems. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has to be stabilised by significant reductions of CO| emissions in the next decades to keep the expected temperature rise within tolerable borders. Efforts exceeding the implemented measures to reduce CO2 emissions in Germany are desirable. An important precondition for such measures is a scientific-based inventory of the sources| sinks| and use of carbon. In this paper| we present CarboMoG| i.e. Carbon Flow Model of Germany. CarboMoG is a carbon flow model covering carbon flows| carbon sources and sinks in Germany and the German anthroposphere| showing concurrent energy and non-energy use of carbon sources. The model consists of seven modules in German anthroposphere following the German classification of economic sectors. Carbon flows to and from atmosphere and lithosphere as well as imports and exports were included into the model. The model comprises roughly 220 material flows determined based on material flow procedures for the base year 2000. Main sources of carbon are fossil energy carriers from lithosphere and uptake Of CO2 by crops (52% resp. 48% of all carbon sources). The model calculations show that import of energy carriers dominates total carbon import to Germany (82%). Total non-energy use of carbon in Germany is significantly higher than energy use (386 Mt C and 230 Mt C| resp.). Carbon throughput of Industry is greatest (about 224 Mt C input)| followed by Energy (about 129 Mt C input). Agriculture and Forestry & Industry show the highest figure for non-energy use of carbon| energy use of carbon is largest in the Energy sector. Emissions Of CO2 to atmosphere account for 94% of carbon flows to sinks in Germany. Carbon accumulates in German anthroposphere 5 Mt C in 2000. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7275,2006,3,3,Carbon reduction strategies at University of East Anglia| UK,Reducing the adverse effects of global warming and climate change is a critical issue. For the past 15 years the University of East Anglia has been addressing these concerns through a multi-pronged approach using technical means of low-energy building design| installing renewable energy sources| good energy management and raising awareness. Through good energy management| the university has been able to reduce the energy consumption of already low-energy buildings by as much as 50%. A large-scale building-integrated photovoltaic (PV) array has been installed along with on-site generation of heating| cooling and electricity via a 3 MW combined heat and power (CHP) plant and| recently| an adsorption chiller. In this paper| potential improvements in a more effective utilisation of PV electricity will also be discussed| as will future plans to reduce carbon emissions by installing further sources of renewable energy. The last part of this paper focuses on the CRed ( Community Carbon Reduction) Programme established in 2003 and based at the university. The CRed programme takes up this challenge through innovative and integrated ways in promoting a low carbon economy and| in particular| promoting awareness. 7484,2006,3,3,Carbon sequestration in a temperate grassland; management and climatic controls,Soil management practices that result in increased soil carbon (C) sequestration can make a valuable contribution to reducing the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We studied the effect of poultry manure| cattle slurry| sewage sludge| NH4NO3 or urea on C cycling and sequestration in silage grass production. Soil respiration| net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and methane (CH4) fluxes were measured with chambers| and soil samples were analysed for total C and dissolved organic C (DOC). Treatments were applied over 2 years and measurements were carried out over 3 years to assess possible residual effects. Organic fertilizer applications increased CO2 loss through soil respiration but also enhanced soil C storage compared with mineral fertilizer. Cumulative soil respiration rates were highest in poultry manure treatments with 13.7 t C ha(-1) in 2003| corresponding to 1.6 times the control value| but no residual effect was seen. Soil respiration showed an exponential increase with temperature| and a bimodal relationship with soil moisture. The greatest NEE was observed on urea treatments (with a CO2 uptake of -4.4 g CO2 m(-2) h(-1)). Total C and DOC were significantly greater in manure treatments in the soil surface (0-10 cm). Of the C added in the manures| 27% of that in the sewage pellets| 32% of that in the cattle slurry and 39% of that in the poultry manure remained in the 0-10 cm soil layer at the end of the experiment. Mineral fertilizer treatments had only small C sequestration rates| although uncertainties were high. Expressed as global warming potentials| the benefits of increased C sequestration on poultry manure and sewage pellet treatments were outweighed by the additional losses of N2O| particularly in the wet year 2002. Methane was emitted only for 2-3 days on cattle slurry treatments| but the magnitudes of fluxes were negligible compared with C losses by soil respiration. 1716,2006,3,3,Carbon sequestration in two Brazilian Cerrado soils under no-till,A considerable proportion of the 200 million hectares of the Brazilian Cerrado is suitable for annual crops but little is known about the effects of tillage on the C dynamics of Cerrado soils. We evaluated the role of two representative Cerrado Oxisols (350 and 650 g clay kg(-1)) as sources or sinks of atmospheric C when managed under three tillage systems (conventional tillage (CT)| reduced tillage (RT)| and no-till (NT)) in 8- and 5-year long-term experiments. A literature review was also carried out and the mean C sequestration rates in no-till soils of tropical and subtropical regions of Brazil were calculated and compared with values for soils from temperate regions of the world. The original C stocks in 0-20 cm layer of soils under native Cerrado were higher in the clayey (54.0 Mg ha(-1)) than in the sandy clay loam soil (35.4 Mg ha(-1))| suggesting a higher physical stability of organic matter associated with variable clay minerals in the clayey Oxisol. The original C stocks of the native Cerrado soils appear not to have decreased after 23 years of conventional tillage in the sandy clay loam Oxisol| except when the soil had been subjected to erosion (15% loss of C)| or after 25 years in the clayey Oxisol. Compared to conventionally tilled soil| the C stocks in no-till sandy clay loam Oxisol increased by 2.4 Mg ha(-1) (C sequestration rate = 0.30 Mg ha(-1) year(-1)) and in the clayey Oxisol by 3.0 Mg ha(-1) (C sequestration rate = 0.60 Mg ha(-1) year(-1)). The mean rate of C sequestration in the no-till Brazilian tropical soils was estimated to be 0.35 Mg ha(-1) year(-1)| similar to the 0.34 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) reported for soils from temperate regions but lower than the 0.48 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) estimated for southern Brazilian subtropical soils. Considering the large area (about 70 million hectares) of the Cerrado which is currently used and potentially available for cropland| the adoption of no-till systems could turn the Cerrado soils into a significant sink for atmospheric C and contribute to the mitigation of global climate change. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7659,2006,2,4,Carbon storage of forest vegetation in China and its relationship with climatic factors,Estimates of forest vegetation carbon storage in China varied due to different methods used in the assessments. In this paper| we estimated the forest vegetation carbon storage from the Fourth Forest Inventory Data (FFID) in China using a modified volume-derived method. Results showed that total carbon storage and mean carbon density of forest vegetation in China were 3.8 Pg C (about 1.1% of the global vegetation carbon stock) and 41.32 Mg/ha| respectively. In addition| based on linear multiple regression equation and factor analysis method| we analyzed contributions of biotic and abiotic factors (including mean forest age| mean annual temperature| annual precipitation| and altitude) to forest carbon storage. Our results indicated that forest vegetation carbon storage was more sensitive to changes of mean annual temperature than other factors| suggesting that global warming would seriously affect the forest carbon storage. 7315,2006,3,4,Catalytic reduction of N2O by H-2 over well-characterized Pt surfaces,A 0.65% Pt/SiO2 catalyst has been prepared using an ion exchange technique and extensively characterized prior to being used for continuous catalytic N2O reduction by H-2 at very low temperatures| such as 363 K. The supported Pt with a high dispersion of 92% gave no presence of O atoms remaining on an H-covered Pt-s| based on in situ DRIFTS spectra of CO adsorbed on Pt-s after either N2O decomposition at 363 K or subsequent exposure to H-2 for more than 1 h; thus the residual uptake gravimetrically observed even after the hydrogen titration on an O-covered surface is associated with H2O produced by introducing H-2 at 363 K onto the oxidized Pt-s. Dissociative N2O adsorption at 363 K on Pt-s was not inhibited by the H2O(ad) on the silica surface but not on Pt-s| as acquired by IR peaks at 3|437 and 1|641 cm(-1)| in very consistent with the same hydrogen coverage| established via H-2-N2O titration on a reduced Pt-s| as that revealed upon the titration reaction with a fully wet surface on which all bands and their position in IR spectra for CO are very similar to that obtained after H-2 titration on a reduced Pt-s. Based on the characterization using chemisorption and in situ DRIFTS and TPD measurements| the complete loss in the rate of N2O decomposition at 363 K after a certain on-stream hour| depending significantly on N2O concentrations used| is due to self-poisoning by the strong chemisorption of O atoms on Pt-s| while the presence of H-2 as a reductant could readily catalyze continuous N2O reduction at 363 K that is a greatly lower temperature than that reported earlier in the literature. 1756,2006,2,4,Catastrophe| recovery and range limitation in NE Pacific kelp forests: a large-scale perspective,The 1997-98 El Nino was one of the strongest on record and resulted in widespread losses of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera (Agardh) along the west coast of North America. Drawing on a rich history of studies that have shown abnormally large waves and warm nutrient-poor water associated with El Ninos to negatively impact giant kelp populations at some locations in southern and Baja California| we examined (1) how these impacts scale up when considered across the species' geographic range in the NE Pacific Ocean and (2) if these impacts are generalizable over broad spatial scales. Working at 56 sites in 14 study locations over a 3 yr period (1997 to 2000)| we examined how giant kelp populations were impacted by and recovered following the 1997-98 El Niho over a similar to 1500 km span along the west coast of North America. Our results indicate that while nearly all giant kelp disappeared from the southern one-third of the species' range along the coast of Baja California| Mexico| and heavy losses occurred throughout the central one-third of the species' range in southern California| USA| only minor impacts were observed throughout the northern one-third of the species' range in central California. Further| although highly variable among regions| these impacts were similar and generalizable among locations within each region. Our results also suggest that| as has been observed in local-scale studies| this large-scale variability in giant kelp mortality was driven by large-scale patterns in ocean temperature (nutrient concentration) and wave intensity. Recovery following El Niho| in contrast| was variable at multiple spatial scales and although not directly tested here| presumably influenced by numerous factors such as proximity to upwelling areas| competition with other algae| grazing| and propagule availability. Further| variability in the rates of recovery among locations resulted in a generally slow recovery of giant kelp throughout most of Baja California| and residual large-scale impacts of the El Niho were still evident 2 yr after the El Niho ended. As global climate change may lead to increases in the frequency and intensity of El Ninos| our findings have broad implications for the ways in which ecosystems might be expected to respond to them and provide a measure by which their impacts to giant kelp ecosystems may be compared among events. 1654,2006,3,4,CDM potential for rural transition in China case study: Options in Yinzhou district| Zhejiang province,This paper aims to examine the potential of the clean development mechanism (CDM) to address energy-related issues during the rural transition process in China| using a case study of quickly urbanizing and industrializing Yinzhou district in coastal Zhejiang province. Yinzhou's per capita GDP reached US$ 3 100 in 2002| three times China's average| and is targeted to achieve $10|000 in 2020. We assess the current energy status of Yinzhou| and provide projections of energy consumption and CO2 emissions up to the year 2020. Energy resource shortages and limited possibilities to obtain coal-fired electricity from national grid illustrate the opening gap between energy supply and demand. We find that Yinzhou's CDM potential is concentrated in efficiency improvement on the demand side. In that context| we suggest to systematically explore the CDM potential in the industrial sector. Projects will have to involve many stakeholders and the necessary local capacity has to be built. These CDM projects can be considered as killing three birds with one stone| namely maintaining continuous economic growth| alleviating local environmental pollution as well as mitigating global climate change. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7453,2006,5,4,Cell evolution and Earth history: stasis and revolution,This synthesis has three main parts. The first discusses the overall tree of life and nature of the last common ancestor (cenancestor). I emphasize key steps in cellular evolution important for ordering and timing the major evolutionary innovations in the history of the biosphere| explaining especially the origins of the eukaryote cell and of bacterial flagella and cell envelope novelties. Second| I map the tree onto the fossil record and discuss dates of key events and their biogeochemical impact. Finally| I present a broad synthesis| discussing evidence for a three-phase history of life. The first phase began perhaps ca 3.5 Gyr ago| when the origin of cells and anoxic photosynthesis generated the arguably most primitive prokaryote phylum| Chlorobacteria (=Chloroflexi)| the first negibacteria with cells bounded by two acyl ester phospholipid membranes. After this 'chlorobacterial age' of benthic anaerobic evolution protected from UV radiation by mineral grains| two momentous quantum evolutionary episodes of cellular innovation and microbial radiation dramatically transformed the Earth's surface: the glycobacterial revolution initiated an oxygenic 'age of cyanobacteria' and| as the ozone layer grew| the rise of plankton; immensely later| probably as recently as ca 0.9 Gyr ago| the neomuran revolution ushered in the 'age of eukaryotes'| Archaebacteria (arguably the youngest bacterial phylum)| and morphological complexity. Diversification of glycobacteria ca 2.8 Gyr ago| predominantly inhabiting stratified benthic mats| I suggest caused serial depletion of C-13 by ribulose 1|5-bis-phosphate caboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco) to yield ultralight late Archaean organic carbon formerly attributed to methanogenesis plus methanotrophy. The late origin of archaebacterial methanogenesis ca 720 Myr ago perhaps triggered snowball Earth episodes by slight global warming increasing weathering and reducing CO2 levels| to yield runaway cooling; the origin of anaerobic methane oxidation ca 570 Myr ago reduced methane flux at source| stabilizing Phanerozoic climates. I argue that the major cellular innovations exhibit a pattern of quantum evolution followed by very rapid radiation and then substantial stasis| as described by Simpson. They yielded organisms that are a mosaic of extremely conservative and radically novel features| as characterized by De Beer's phrase 'mosaic evolution'. Evolution is not evenly paced and there are no real molecular clocks. 7273,2006,4,4,CH3OCF2CHFCl and CHF2OCF2CHFCl: Reaction with Cl atoms| atmospheric lifetimes| ozone depletion and global warming potentials,The relative rate technique has been used to determine the rate constants of the reactions of Cl atoms with 2-chloro-1|1|2-trifluoroethyl-methyl-ether (CH3OCF2CHFCl) and 2-chloro-1|1|2-trifluoroethyl-difluoromethyl-ether (CHF2OCF2CHFCl). Experiments were carried out at 296 +/- 2K and atmospheric pressure using nitrogen or synthetic air as bath gases. The decay rates of the organic species were measured relative to those of 1|2-dichloroethane| dichloromethane and 1|1|1|2-tretrafluoroethane. The following rate coefficients were derived for the reaction of Cl atoms (in units of cm(3)molecule(-1)s(-1)) with CH3OCF2CHFCl| k = (3.24 +/- 0.49) x 10(-13) and CHF2OCF2CHFCl| k = (3.20 +/- 0.32) x 10(-15). The rate constants obtained are compared with previous literature data to establish reactivity trends and used to estimate the atmospheric lifetimes for the studied ethers. From the calculated lifetimes| using average global concentrations of Cl atoms and OH radicals| the atmospheric loss of CH3OCF2CHFCl and CHF2OCF2CHFCl is determined by the OH-initiated oxidation. The atmospheric implications of these reactions are discussed based on the calculated ozone depletion potential (ODP) and global warming potential (GWP) of the ethers. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7403,2006,2,3,Change of baiu rain band in global warming projection by an atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km grid size,A global warming projection experiment was conducted on the Earth Simulator using a very high horizontal resolution atmospheric general circulation model| with 20-km grid size (the 20-km model). Such high horizontal resolution in a global climate model is unprecedented for a global warming projection. Experiments using the 20-km model were conducted by adopting the time-slice method| in which future changes in sea surface temperature (SST) were predicted by an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) called MRI-CGCM2.3. The A1B emission scenario| proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)| was assumed in the experiment. The model reproduces a realistic Baiu rain band under the present-day climate conditions in terms of geographical distribution and northward seasonal march. Experiments of the dependency of the horizontal resolution on the reproducibility of the Baiu rain band have revealed that the 20-km model generally exhibits higher performance than a model with a lower horizontal resolution. The future climate simulation shows that precipitation| and its intensity increases over the Yangtze River valley of China| the East China Sea| Western Japan| and the ocean to the south of the Japan archipelago. Conversely| precipitation and its intensity decrease over the Korean peninsula and Northern Japan. The termination of the Baiu season tends to be delayed until August. The future precipitation change is mainly attributable to the change in the horizontal transport of water vapor flux and its convergence associated with the intensification of a subtropical high. This can be interpreted as an atmospheric response to the El Nino condition of the ocean. The change in the wind field mainly contributes to the change in the water vapor flux in the case of the Baiu rain band. 7653,2006,2,4,Change of extreme events of temperature and precipitation over Korea using regional projection of future climate change,This study investigates possible changes of extreme events in global warming over Korea with MM5 downscaling simulation during the period 1971-2100. Frequency distribution of daily temperatures over Korea shows an increase in the mean by about 5.5 degrees C from 1971-2000 to 2071-2100 while change in the variance is negligible. Increasing temperature results in changes in the frequency and intensity of temperature extremes. Under the current climate change scenario| hot events are expected to be more frequent and intense| while cold events will be rare and weaker. The increasing trend of temperature is associated with an increasing trend of precipitation. The increasing trend produces an increase in the number of the days of heavy precipitation as well as the corresponding amount. Better resolved topography in MM5 produces bigger changes in local precipitation than in the temperature field. Consequently increasing tendency is obvious in the northern part of Korea. 7274,2006,2,3,Changes in Atlantic thermohaline circulation under different atmospheric CO2 scenarios in a climate model,The changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) because of the increased COZ in the atmosphere play an important role in future climate regimes. In this article| a new climate model developed at the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology is used to study the variation in THC strength| the changes of North Atlantic deep-water (NADW) formation| and the regional responses of the THC in the North Atlantic to increasing atmospheric CO2. From 2000 to 2100| under increased CO| scenarios (B1| A1B| and A2)| the strength of THC decreases by 4 Sv (106 m(3)/s)| 5.1 Sv| and 5.2 Sv| respectively| equivalent to a reduction of 20 O| 25 %| and 25.1 % of the present THC strength. The analyses show that the oceanic deep convective activity significantly strengthens in the Greenland-Iceland-Norway (GIN) Seas owing to saltier (denser) upper oceans| whereas weakens in the Labrador Sea and in the south of the Denmark Strait region (SDSR) because of surface warming and freshening due to global warming. The saltiness of the GIN Seas is mainly caused by the increase of the saline North Atlantic inflow through the Faro-Bank (FB) Channel. Under the scenario AIB| the deep-water formation rate in the North Atlantic decreases from 16. 2 Sv to 12. 9 Sv with increasing CO2. 7567,2006,2,4,Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years,[ 1] Changes in the global monsoon rainfall over land were examined using four sets of rain- gauge precipitation data sets compiled for the period of 1948 - 2003 by climate diagnostic groups around the world. Here| we define a global monsoon rain domain according to annual precipitation range| using simple objective criteria; then| we propose metrics for quantifying the intensity of the global monsoon precipitation. The results suggest an overall weakening of the global land monsoon precipitation in the last 56 years| primarily due to weakening of the summer monsoon rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere. However| since 1980| the global land monsoon rainfall has seen no significant trend| which contrasts with the rapid intensification of global warming during the same period. Meanwhile the oceanic monsoon precipitation shows an increasing trend after 1980. The results provide a rigorous test for climate models that will be used in future climate-change assessment. 1687,2006,2,4,Changes in occurrence and abundance of northern/southern flatfishes over a 20-year period in a coastal nursery area (Bay of Vilaine) and on the eastern continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay,Several works have demonstrated trends in the distribution of fish species relative to global warming. This study investigated whether similar trends have occurred for selected flatfish species on the continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay. These species were used as indicators and changes in their Populations were studied in a coastal nursery ground|where flatfish juveniles are concentrated as well as on the entire shelf. Previous studies analysing changes in sea surface temperature for the continental shelf indicate that winter warming occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. Sixteen autumn cruises conducted since 1981 in the Bay of Vilaine nursery area and I I autumn cruises since 1987 over the entire shelf provided data on a nearly annual basis for the abundance of benthic fish. The four most common flatfish species were selected and their occurrence and yearly abundance were analysed with regard to specific biogeographic ranges and climate change. Similar results were obtained for juveniles on a nursery scale and for all age groups on the entire shelf. Although sole (Solea solea) showed irregular yearly variations| northern winter spawners such as plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) and dab (Limanda limanda) exhibited significantly high abundance during the 1980s| followed by a continuing low level and ultimately zero catches. On the other hand| the wedge sole (Dicologoglossa cuneata)| a southern summer spawner| showed an increasing trend in the late 1990s. 7540,2006,2,4,Changes in onset and withdrawal of the East Asian summer rainy season by multi-model global warming experiments,Baiu-Changma-Meiyu is a rainy period in early summer over East Asia (Japan| Korea and China) and its variability and change is one of the major focus in climate change projections in these areas. We analyze the changes in intensity and duration of Baiu-Changma-Meiyu rain by global warming using daily precipitation data of fifteen coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations under the SIZES A1B scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is revealed that a delay in early summer rain withdrawal over the region extending from Taiwan| Ryukyu Islands to the south of Japan is contrasted with an earlier withdrawal over the Yangtze Basin| although the latter is not significant due to inconsistent sign of changes among the models. Higher mean sea-level pressure anomalies in the tropical western Pacific in the future may be related to these late withdrawals. Changes in onset dates are relatively less compared to those in withdrawal dates. 7320,2006,5,4,Changes of sea level| landscape and culture: A review of the south-western Baltic area between 8800 and 4000BC,The global warming at the end of the last glacial period led to a sea level rise| which induced substantial long-term landscape changes in the southwestern Baltic Sea. During the Preboreal and Boreal periods| this region| bordering on the Ancylus Lake in the east| was dry and with numerous lakes and rivers. However| with the beginning of the Littorina Transgression around 6700 BC| during the Atlantic period| the area became connected to the ocean. People settling along the coast of the former Ancylus Lake| Mesolithic hunter-gatherers| continuously had to adapt to rapid changes. The Littorina Transgression made a new source available to man: the young Baltic Sea. Important settlement sites were founded in the coastal regions| and were consumed one by one by the constantly rising sea level. At the time of the decline of the sea level rise and the beginning consolidation of the coast lines| a socially motivated turn towards a productive economy started. Hunting and fishery were widely replaced by agriculture and stock fanning. To understand the interplay between all of these developments| it is necessary that scientists from a variety of disciplines undertake collective investigations. This paper presents first culture-historical| palaeozoological| palaeobotanical| palaeoecological and palaeogeographical results yielded by from the multidisciplinary research group SINCOS (Sinking Coasts) and uses these to create a new comprehensive picture of the development of the south-western Baltic Sea region during the Ancylus Lake and Littorina Sea stages. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 7244,2006,3,3,Characterisation of the environmental impact of a turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) re-circulating production system using Life Cycle Assessment,The environmental impacts of a water re-circulating system for fish farming were studied through the case study of an inland turbot farm located in Brittany (France). Life Cycle Assessment methodology was used to evaluate the potential environmental impact through the following indicators: Eutrophication Potential| Acidification Potential| Global Warming Potential| Net Primary Production Use and Non Renewable Energy Use. Two methods were used to assess the farm's nitrogen| phosphorus and solids emissions: nutrient measurement accounting and nutrient balance modelling. The two methods gave similar results for solids and phosphorus emissions| while for nitrogen the measurement-based approach resulted in half the emissions predicted by the model. The uncertainty regarding the potential gaseous nitrogen emissions led us to assess impacts according to three scenarios| differing with respect to emissions of N-2| N2O and NH3. This approach illustrates that the uncertainty concerning nitrogenous emissions to the atmosphere leads to uncertainty with respect to the production system's Eutrophication Potential and its Global Warming Potential. The comparison of our results with similar results for large rainbow trout production in a flow-through system points out the impacts associated with the high level of energy consumption in the studied re-circulating system (i.e. Non Renewable Energy Use| Global Warming potential| Acidification Potential). The nitrogenous gas emissions of re-circulating systems require further studies| in order to precisely identify the substances involved and the technological solutions allowing reduced impacts. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 7644,2006,3,3,Characterization of protective oxide layers formed on molten AZ91 alloy containing Ca and Be,AZ91 alloy in its molten state oxidizes rapidly in atmospheric conditions and begin to burn from the melt surface. In order to prevent the molten AZ91 alloy from burning| it is usually protected by a cover gas Such as sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). However| the use of SF6 gas poses a serious threat to the environment as it is widely acknowledged to contribute to the global warming effect. Thus| several types of studies aimed at controlling the oxidation behavior of molten magnesium alloys have been carried out. This paper describes the characteristics of the oxide layers formed oil molten AZ91 alloys containing Ca and Be. The Surface analysis technique of GDS (Glow Discharge Spectroscopy) was used to investigate the oxide layers of AZ91 alloys containing Ca and Be. The GDS results showed that the oxide layer consists of CaO| MgO| BeO and Al2O3. 7395,2006,3,3,Chemical looping combustion in a 10 kW(th) prototype using a CuO/Al2O3 oxygen carrier: Effect of operating conditions on methane combustion,Chemical looping combustion (CLC) currently is an attractive option to decrease the greenhouse gas emissions that affect global warming| because it is a combustion process with inherent CO2 separation and with low energy losses. The CLC concept is based on the transfer of oxygen from the combustion air to fuel by means of an oxygen carrier in the form of a metal oxide. The system consists of two separate but interconnected reactors| normally fluidized-bed type. In the fuel reactor| the oxygen carrier particles react with fuel and generate a gas stream mainly composed of CO2 and H2O. The reduced metal oxide is later transported to the air reactor| where oxygen from the air is transferred to the particles; in this way| one can obtain the original metal oxide ready to be returned to the fuel reactor for a new cycle. In this work| a 10 kW(th) pilot plant that is composed of two interconnected bubbling fluidized-bed reactors has been designed and built to demonstrate the CLC technology. The prototype was operated for 200 h| 120 h of which involved the burning of methane. The effect of the operating conditions (oxygen carrier-to-fuel ratio| fuel gas velocity| oxygen carrier particle size| and fuel reactor temperature) on fuel conversion was analyzed working with a CuO-Al2O3 oxygen carrier prepared by dry impregnation. In addition| the behavior with respect to attrition| agglomeration| and reactivity of the oxygen carrier was analyzed. It was found that the most important parameter that was affecting the CH4 conversion was the oxygen carrier-to-fuel ratio. Complete methane conversion| without CO or H-2 emissions| was obtained with this oxygen carrier working at 800 degrees C and oxygen carrier-to-fuel ratios of > 1.4. 1708,2006,3,3,Climate agreements based on responsibility for global warming: Periodic updating| policy choices| and regional costs,It has been suggested that calculations of historical responsibility for global warming should be used to distribute mitigation requirements in future climate agreements. For a medium-term mitigation scenario| we calculate regional mitigation costs resulting from global allocation schemes based on the Brazilian Proposal that solely incorporate historical responsibility as a burden sharing criterion. We find that they are likely to violate ability-to-pay principles. In spite of less stringent abatement requirements| developing country regions experience cost burdens (as a percentage of GDP) in the same range as those of developed countries. We also assess the policy options available for calculating historical responsibility. The periodic updating of responsibility calculations over time| concerns over the robustness and availability of emissions data| and the question of whether past emissions were knowingly harmful| may lead to policy choices that increase the relative historical responsibility attributed to developing countries. This| in turn| would increase their mitigation cost burden. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7469,2006,2,4,Climate change and human health in Latin America: drivers| effects| and policies,Many people would be increasingly affected by living under critical conditions in Latin America if| as expected| global warming aggravates disease and pest transmission processes. Heat waves and air pollution would increase heat-related diseases and illness episodes in large cities. Fire smoke has been associated with irritation of the throat| lung and eyes| and respiratory problems. Climate extreme increases associated with climate change would cause physical damage| population displacement| and adverse effects on food production| freshwater availability and quality. It would also increase the risks of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Climate change impacts the geographical range| seasonality| and the incidence rate of vector-borne diseases. such as malaria. Climate-related ecological changes may expand cholera transmission| particularly populations in low-laying tropical coastal areas. El Nino conditions may affect the incidence of infectious diseases| such as malaria. Ocean warming would increase temperature-sensitive toxins produced by phytoplankton| which could cause more frequent contamination of seafood. A clearer understanding on the current role of climate change in disease patterns will be able to improve forecasts of potential future impacts of projected climate change and support action to reduce such impacts. 7398,2006,4,4,Climate change and solar variability: What's new under the sun?,The Sun has an obvious effect on climate since its radiation is the main energy source for the outer envelopes of our planet. Nevertheless| there is a long-standing controversy on whether solar variability can significantly generate climate change| and how this might occur. This is a crucial issue not only in the field of paleoclimatology| but also for predicting the future of the Earth's climate| which will be subject to perturbations by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Indeed| if climate changes due to the Sun were large and rapid| this would make it more difficult to extract the anthropogenic effects from precise records of instrumental data over the past century. Hence| Sun-climate relationships have never been so controversial as today| forming a debate that often escapes the scientific arena. Here| we provide a review of this problem by considering changes on different time scales| from the last million years up to recent decades. In doing so| we also critically assess recent claims that the variability of the Sun has had a significant impact on global climate. The different studied records also illustrate the mulfi-disciplinary nature of this difficult problem| requiring knowledge in several fields such as astronomy and astrophysics| atmospheric dynamics and microphysics| isotope geochemistry and geochronology| as well as geophysics| paleoceanography and glaciology. Overall| the role of solar activity in climate changes - such as the Quaternary glaciations or the present global warming - remains unproven and most probably represents a second-order effect. Although we still require even more and better data| the weight of evidence suggests that solar changes have contributed to small climate oscillations occurring on time scales of a few centuries| similar in type to the fluctuations classically described for the last millennium: The so-called Medieval Warm Period (900-1400 A.D.) followed on by the Little Ice Age (1500-1800 A.D.). (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1765,2006,3,2,Climate change and the future of shipping and ship design,In 2001| the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a series of alarming reports that outlined the likely consequences of climate change over the next 50 to 100 years. Subsequent to those reports| in early 2005| the Kyoto Protocol took effect| establishing modest targets for reducing emissions of global-warming gases by certain countries. Those targets are widely considered to be inadequate to do the job. >> In 2007| the IPCC will issue its next series of reports| and it is widely anticipated that those reports will paint a grim picture of the future| possibly setting off another round of calls to action and negotiations for tougher treaty requirements.))Whatever the immediate reaction to the 2007 IPCC reports| determined action by developed and developing nations alike appears inevitable. That determined action will affect every economic sector| including the shipping and shipbuilding industries. >> So it's coming time for the leaders| owners| operators| technologists| designers| and manufacturers in the U.S. domestic shipping and shipbuilding industries to begin contemplating what actions they will take to address possible legal requirements associated with global climate change. >> Previous papers on climate change by this author have focused on ship technologies (Breslin & Wang| 2004) as well as DoN acquisition strategies (Breslin| 2003). The purpose of this paper is to outline where we are and where we are likely to be going relative to treaties and domestic legislation associated with climate change| speculate on the likely implications relative to shipping and shipbuilding| and outline a rough path into the future. 7325,2006,4,3,Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia,The environment in which crops will be grown in the future will change. CO2 concentrations [CO2] and temperatures (7) will probably increase and a decline of winter rainfall is predicted for south-west Australia. To be able to adapt crop systems to a changing climate it is important to know how different aspects of climate change affect agricultural production and how they interact. In a full factorial design we studied how higher T (2| 4 and 6 degrees C) elevated [CO2] (525 and 700 ppm) and five different rainfall scenarios affected wheat yield and grain protein. Effects of climate change were simulated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM-Nwheat) using transformed historic weather data. Fifty years of yield and grain protein concentrations were simulated for three soil types at different locations on a north-south transect within the wheatbelt of south-west Australia. Simulation results showed that there were complex interactions between different aspects of climate change on crop systems. Effects of higher temperatures| elevated [CO2] and changed rainfall were in general not linear and differed significantly between soil types and location. Higher [CO2] increased yield especially at drier sites while higher temperatures had a positive effect in the cooler and wetter southern part of the region. The main difference between soil types was that heavier clay soils are most vulnerable to reduced rainfall while sandy soils were more vulnerable to higher temperatures. Elevated [CO2] reduced grain protein concentration and lower rainfall increased protein levels at all sites. Higher temperatures could both increase and decrease protein concentrations. In the southern| higher rainfall part of south-western Australia| yield and gross margin will increase for all likely future climate scenarios. In the drier part of the region| negative effects of 15% reduced rainfall can be compensated for by a 2 degrees C increase in temperature and 50% higher [CO2] concentrations. However due to the non-linearity of climate change effects a 30% reduction in rainfall cannot be compensated for by higher temperatures and [CO2] Crown Copyright (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1659,2006,2,4,Climate change manipulations show Antarctic flora is more strongly affected by elevated nutrients than water,Climate change is expected to affect the high latitudes first and most severely| rendering Antarctica one of the most significant baseline environments for the study of global climate change. The indirect effects of climate warming| including changes to the availability of key environmental resources| such as water and nutrients| are likely to have a greater impact upon continental Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems than the effects of fluctuations in temperature alone. To investigate the likely impacts of a wetter climate on Antarctic terrestrial communities a multiseason| manipulative field experiment was conducted in the floristically important Windmill Islands region of East Antarctica. Four cryptogamic communities (pure bryophyte| moribund bryophyte| crustose and fructicose lichen-dominated) received increased water and/or nutrient additions over two consecutive summer seasons. The increased water approximated an 18% increase in snow melt days (0.2 degrees C increase in temperature)| while the nutrient addition of 3.5g Nm(-2) yr(-1) was within the range of soil N in the vicinity. A range of physiological and biochemical measurements were conducted in order to quantify the community response. While an overall increase in productivity in response to water and nutrient additions was observed| productivity appeared to respond more strongly to nutrient additions than to water additions. Pure bryophyte communities| and lichen communities dominated by the genus Usnea| showed stronger positive responses to nutrient additions| identifying some communities that may be better able to adapt and prosper under the ameliorating conditions associated with a warmer| wetter future climate. Under such a climate| productivity is overall likely to increase but some cryptogamic communities are likely to thrive more than others. Regeneration of moribund bryophytes appears likely only if a future moisture regime creates consistently moist conditions. 7486,2006,2,2,Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3,Climate change scenario simulations with the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3)| a global coupled climate model| show that if concentrations of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) could have been stabilized at the year 2000| the climate system would already be committed to 0.4 degrees C more warming by the end of the twenty-first century. Committed sea level rise by 2100 is about an order of magnitude more| percentage-wise|. compared to sea level rise simulated in the twentieth century. This increase in the model is produced only by thermal expansion of seawater| and does not take into account melt from ice sheets and glaciers. which could at least double that number. Several tenths of a degree of additional warming occurs in the model for the next 200 yr in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 and A1B scenarios after stabilization in the year 2100| but with twice as much sea level rise after 100 yr| and doubling yet again in the next 100 yr to 2300. At the end of the twenty-first century| the warming in the tropical Pacific for the A2| A1B| and B1 scenarios resembles an El Nino-like response| likely due to cloud feedbacks in the model as shown in an earlier version. Greatest warming occurs at high northern latitudes and over continents. The monsoon regimes intensify somewhat in the future warmer climate| with decreases of sea level pressure at high latitudes and increases in the subtropics and parts of the midlatitudes. There is a weak summer midlatitude soil moisture drying in this model as documented in previous models. Sea ice distributions in both hemispheres are somewhat over-extensive| but with about the right ice thickness at the end of the twentieth century. Future decreases in sea ice with global warming are proportional to the temperature response from the forcing scenarios| with the high forcing scenario| A2| producing an ice-free Arctic in summer by the year 2100. 7465,2006,2,4,Climate change| parasitism and the structure of intertidal ecosystems,Evidence is accumulating rapidly showing that temperature and other climatic variables are driving many ecological processes. At the same time| recent research has highlighted the role of parasitism in the dynamics of animal populations and the structure of animal communities. Here| the likely interactions between climate change and parasitism are discussed in the context of intertidal ecosystems. Firstly| using the soft-sediment intertidal communities of Otago Harbour| New Zealand| as a case study| parasites are shown to be ubiquitous components of intertidal communities| found in practically all major animal species in the system. With the help of specific examples from Otago Harbour| it is demonstrated that parasites can regulate host population density| influence the diversity of the entire benthic community| and affect the structure of the intertidal food web. Secondly| we document the extreme sensitivity of cercarial production in parasitic trematodes to increases in temperature| and discuss how global warming could lead to enhanced trematode infections. Thirdly| the results of a simulation model are used to argue that parasite-mediated local extinctions of intertidal animals are a likely outcome of global warming. Specifically| the model predicts that following a temperature increase of less than 4 degrees C| populations of the amphipod Corophium volutator| a hugely abundant tube-building amphipod on the mudflats of the Danish Wadden Sea| are likely to crash repeatedly due to mortality induced by microphallid trematodes. The available evidence indicates that climate-mediated changes in local parasite abundance will have significant repercussions for intertidal ecosystems. On the bright side| the marked effects of even slight increases in temperature on cercarial production in trematodes could form the basis for monitoring programmes| with these sensitive parasites providing early warning signals of the environmental impacts of global warming. 7519,2006,2,4,Climate controls on US West Coast erosion processes,Erosion along the West Coast of the United States is affected by climate controls that include a trend of increasing wave heights during at least the past 25 years that might be related to global warming and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) range between El Ninos and La Ninas that affects both annual wave conditions and monthly mean water levels that raise tidal elevations. These processes are analyzed for sites from Washington to south-central California| revealing a latitude dependence of the individual processes and how their combinations affect total water levels at the shore| which is important to beach and property erosion. Particularly significant on the coast of the Pacific Northwest (Washing-ton and Oregon) has been the progressive decadal increases in deep-water wave heights and periods| which have increased breaker heights and elevated storm wave runup levels on beaches. Along the entire West Coast| the annual variations in wave conditions above and below any progressive decadal increase are controlled by the North Pacific index (NPI)| the atmospheric pressure difference between the Hawaiian High and Aleutian Low| and the ENSO range| as demonstrated by a strong correlation with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI)| with the highest wave conditions occurring during El Ninos. In addition| the ENSO range is particularly important in controlling mean water levels| causing tides to reach their highest elevations during El Ninos| again shown by correlations with MEIs along the entire West Coast. With El Ninos producing increased deep-water wave heights| runup levels on beaches| and elevated tides| the total water levels at the shore from the combined processes are significantly higher compared with normal or La Nina years| resulting in episodes of major property erosion along the entire US West Coast. 7364,2006,2,4,Climate impacts at multiple scales: evidence for differential population responses in juvenile Chinook salmon,1. We explored differential population responses to climate in 18 populations of threatened spring-summer Chinook salmon Onchorynchus tshawytscha in the Salmon River basin| Idaho. 2. Using data from a long-term mark-release-recapture study of juvenile survival| we found that fall stream flow is the best predictor of average survival across all populations. 3. To determine whether all populations responded similarly to climate| we used a cluster analysis to group populations that had similar annual fluctuations in survival. The populations grouped into four clusters| and different environmental factors were important for different clusters. 4. Survival in two of the clusters was negatively correlated with summer temperature| and survival in the other two clusters was positively correlated with minimum fall stream flow| which in turn depends on snow pack from the previous winter. 5. Using classification and regression tree analysis| we identified stream width and stream temperature as key habitat factors that shape the responses of individual populations to climate. 6. Climate change will likely have different impacts on different populations within this metapopulation| and recognizing this diversity is important for accurately assessing risks. 7553,2006,4,3,Climate model fidelity and projections of climate change,Relative entropy| which is a measure of the difference between two probability distributions| has been calculated for the simulations of the climate of the 20th century from 13 climate models and the observed surface air temperature during the past 100 years. This quantity is used as a measure of model fidelity: a small value of relative entropy indicates that a given model's distribution is close to the observed. It is found that there is an inverse relationship between relative entropy and the sensitivity of the model to doubling of the concentration of CO2. The models that have lower values of relative entropy| hence have higher fidelity in simulating the present climate| produce higher values of global warming for a doubling of CO2. This suggests that the projected global warming due to increasing CO2 is likely to be closer to the highest projected estimates among the current generation of climate models. 7534,2006,5,3,Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries,The magnitude and impact of future global warming depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. The commonly accepted range for the equilibrium global mean temperature change in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration(1)| termed climate sensitivity| is 1.5-4.5 K (ref. 2). A number of observational studies(3-10)| however| find a substantial probability of significantly higher sensitivities| yielding upper limits on climate sensitivity of 7.7 K to above 9 K (refs 3-8). Here we demonstrate that such observational estimates of climate sensitivity can be tightened if reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past several centuries are considered. We use large-ensemble energy balance modelling and simulate the temperature response to past solar| volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing to determine which climate sensitivities yield simulations that are in agreement with proxy reconstructions. After accounting for the uncertainty in reconstructions and estimates of past external forcing| we find an independent estimate of climate sensitivity that is very similar to those from instrumental data. If the latter are combined with the result from all proxy reconstructions| then the 5-95 per cent range shrinks to 1.5-6.2 K| thus substantially reducing the probability of very high climate sensitivity. 1720,2006,4,4,Climate sensitivity to ocean dimethylsulphide emissions,The production of dimethylsulphide (DMS) by ocean phytoplankton is hypothesized to form part of a feedback process on global climate. Changes in the DMS flux to the atmosphere cause changes to aerosols for cloud formation| leading to changes in the amount of radiation reaching the ocean| and hence on the planktonic production of DMS. This hypothesis has been investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (COAGCM) that includes an ocean ecosystem model and an atmospheric sulphur cycle. Ocean DMS concentrations are parameterised as a function of chlorophyll| nutrient and light. The results of several sensitivity experiments are presented showing significant global climate change responses to perturbations in ocean DMS production. A small negative feedback from climate change onto ocean DMS production is found and the implications are discussed. 7302,2006,3,2,Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the necessity to transform global energy supply,This paper analyses the policy relevance of the dominant uncertainty in our current scientific understanding of the terrestrial climate system| and provides further evidence for the need to radically transform-this century-our global energy supply infrastructure| given the global average temperature increase as a result of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We investigate the effect on required CO2 emission reduction efforts| both in terms of how much and when| of our present uncertain knowledge of the climate sensitivity to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. We use a top-down integrated assessment model in which there are two competing energy sources| fossil and non-fossil. Technological change is represented endogenously through learning curves| and modest but non-zero demand exists for the relatively expensive carbon-free energy resource. We find that during the forthcoming two decades the relative roles of carbon-free energy and energy savings are similar| while in the long run the importance of carbon-free energy deployment becomes predominant| independent of the assumed climate sensitivity| but dependent on some of our model's characteristic features. We also find that| in the absence of the realisation of drastic energy efficiencies or a massive deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies| non-carbon energy resources should provide 10-30% and 80-90% of total energy supply| in 2020 and 2100| respectively. Finally| we observe that in our model the timing of the emissions reduction effort is nearly linear and close to independent of either the climate sensitivity or policy target. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7546,2006,2,4,Climate warming impact on degree-days and building energy demand in Switzerland,The impact of climate warming on Swiss building energy demand was investigated by means of the degree-days method. A procedure to estimate heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) from monthly temperature data was developed| tested and applied to four representative Swiss locations. Past trends were determined from homogenized temperature data for the period 1901-2003. The range of possible future trends for the 21st century was assessed based on 41 regional climate change scenarios derived from 35 simulations with 8 global climate models. During 1901-2003| the HDD were found to have decreased by 11-18%| depending on the threshold temperature (8| 10 or 12 degrees C) and location. For the period 1975-2085| the scenario calculations suggested a further decrease between 13% and 87%. For CDD| accelerating positive trends were found during the 20th and 21st centuries. The HDD showed the largest absolute and the CDD the largest relative sensitivity to warming (albeit starting from relatively low levels). Weather data currently used for building design increasingly lead to an overestimation of heating and underestimation of cooling demand in buildings and| thus| require periodic adaptation. Projections were particularly sensitive to the choice of temperature scenario. Nevertheless| they suggest for the next decades significant| seasonally and regionally variable shifts in the energy consumption of Swiss buildings that deserve further study. In particular| greater attention needs to be paid in future to the summer thermal behaviour of buildings. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7676,2006,2,4,Climatic and intertrophic effects detected in 10-year population dynamics of biological control of the arrowhead scale by two parasitoids in southwestern Japan,Relative effects of weather and three-trophic interactions were studied for a classical biological control system consisting of the arrowhead scale Unaspis yanonensis| known formerly as a serious pest of the Satsuma mandarin orange Citrus unshiu| and its two introduced parasitoids| Coccobius fulvus and Aphytis yanonensis. Yearly population responses of the three insect species on a per-tree basis for up to 10 years at two orange groves were analyzed by general linear models| with a backward stepwise procedure| to select among abiotic (summer/winter temperature and rainfall) and biotic (densities of the three insect species and orange bearing in the previous years) independent variables. Temperature positively affected the arrowhead scale and the two parasitoids. A negative correlation of rainfall was detected for all three insect species. Mandarin fruiting showed negative delayed density dependence| thereby supporting the observed alternate bearing phenomenon in mandarins| presumably due to physiological imbalance triggered by climatic factors. The arrowhead scale was negatively correlated with fruit production in the preceding years| possibly due to reduced resistance in subsequent years of mast fruiting. We found a negative correlation of the arrowhead scale with Coccobius only in a single grove and none with Aphytis. Thus| it appears that bottom-up forces may be more important than top-down control by the parasitoids in the post-transient phase of this system. 7466,2006,2,4,Climatic change on the Tibetan Plateau: Potential evapotranspiration trends from 1961-2000,Time series (1961-2000) of Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration estimates for 101 stations on the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas are analyzed in this paper. For the Tibetan Plateau as a whole potential evapotranspiration (PET) has decreased in all seasons. The average annual evapotranspiration rate decreased by 13.1 mm/decade or 2.0% of the annual total. Superimposed on this general decline are fluctuations ranging from app. 600 to 700 mm with above average rates in the 1970s and 1980s. On a regional basis| spatial trend distributions remain stable throughout the year with similar seasonal variations. Decreasing PET rates are more pronounced in winter and spring (80% of all stations) as compared to summer and autumn (58% of all stations). Maximum negative (positive) annual rates were recorded at two stations in the southern Qaidam Basin with -79.5 mm/decade (84.8 mm/decade) even though in general negative rates tend to be noticeably higher than positive rates. Changes in wind speed and to a lesser degree relative humidity were found to be the most important meteorological variables affecting PET trends on the Tibetan Plateau while changes in sunshine duration played an insignificant role. Stable daytime temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau have limited the importance of temperature trends for changes of PET rates. Negative evapotranspiration trends are therefore thought to be linked to a general decrease in intensity of the regional monsoon circulation rather than to reductions in sunshine duration. Reduced PET rates appear to be in contrast to a predicted increased hydrological cycle under global warming scenarios. 7467,2006,5,4,Climatic change| wars and dynastic cycles in China over the last millennium,In recent years| the phenomenon of global warming and its implications for the future of the human race have been intensively studied. In contrast| few quantitative studies have been attempted on the notable effects of past climatic changes upon human societies. This study explored the relationship between climatic change and war in China by comparing high-resolution paleo-climatic reconstructions with known war incidences in China in the last millennium. War frequencies showed a cyclic pattern that closely followed the global paleo-temperature changes. Strong and significant correlations were found between climatic change| war occurrence| harvest level| population size and dynastic transition. During cold phases| China suffered more often from frequent wars| population decline and dynastic changes. The quantitative analyses suggested that the reduction of thermal energy input during a cold phase would lower the land carrying capacity in the traditional agrarian society| and the population size| with significant accretions accrued in the previous warm phase| could not be sustained by the shrinking resource base. The stressed human-nature relationship generated a 'push force'| leading to more frequent wars between states| regions and tribes| which could lead to the collapse of dynasties and collapses of human population size. War frequencies varied according to geographical locations (North| Central and South China) due to spatial variations in the physical environment and hence differential response to climatic change. Moreover| war occurrences demonstrated an obvious time lag after an episode of temperature fall| and the three geographical regions experienced different length of time lags. This research also shows that human population increases and collapses were correlated with the climatic phases and the social instabilities that were induced by climate changes during the last millennium. The findings proposed a new interpretation of human-nature relationship in the past| with implications for the impacts of anomalous global warming on future human conflicts. 7303,2006,4,4,Climatic limits of pink bollworm in Arizona and California: effects of climate warming,The distribution and abundance of pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella Saunders (PBW)) in cotton in Arizona and California was examined using a validated weather-driven| physiologically based demographic model of cotton and PBW integrated into a geographic information system (GIS). Survival of diapause larvae during winter as affected by low temperatures is a key factor determining the range of PBW Winter survival was estimated using data from Gutierrez et al. (Can. Entomol. 109 (1977) 1457) and Venette et al. (Environ. Entomol. 29 (5) (2000) 1018). The model was run continuously over the period 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2003 using observed weather data from 121 locations. Three output variables were mapped as measures of PBW persistence: over-winter survival of diapause PBW larvae| cumulative daily PBW larval densities over the season| and the number of diapause larvae produced during the season. The distribution of pink bollworm is predicted to be restricted to the relatively frost-free cotton growing areas of Arizona and Southern California where it currently reaches pest status. The model predicts that extension of PBW's range into the Central Valley of California is unlikely The analysis questions the efficacy of an ongoing area-wide effort to prevent the establishment of PBW in the Central Valley of California. Four global warming scenarios were examined to estimate the effects on the potential geographic range of PBW Average observed daily temperatures were increased 1.0| 1.5| 2.0 or 2.5 degrees C| respectively| in the four scenarios. Scenarios with average increases of 1.5-2.5 degrees C predicted that the range of PBW would expand into the Central Valley of California and the severity of the pest would greatly increase in areas of current infestation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved. 1706,2006,5,4,Climatic variability in the southwest Pacific during the Last Termination (20-10 kyr BP),The degree to which palaeoclimatic changes in the Southern Hemisphere co-varied with events in the high latitude Northern Hemisphere during the Last Termination is a contentious issue| with conflicting evidence for the degree of 'teleconnection' between different regions of the Southern Hemisphere. The available hypotheses are difficult to test robustly| however| because there are few detailed palaeoclimatic records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present climatic reconstructions from the southwestern Pacific| a key region in the Southern Hemisphere because of the potentially important role it plays in global climate change. The reconstructions for the period 20-10 kyr BP were obtained from five sites along a transect from southern New Zealand| through Australia to Indonesia| supported by 125 calibrated C-14 ages. Two periods of significant climatic change can be identified across the region at around 17 and 14.2 cal kyr BP| most probably associated with the onset of warming in the West Pacific Warm Pool and the collapse of Antarctic ice during Meltwater Pulse-1A| respectively. The severe geochronological constraints that inherently afflict age models based on radiocarbon dating and the lack of quantified climatic parameters make more detailed interpretations problematic| however. There is an urgent need to address the geochronological limitations| and to develop more precise and quantified estimates of the pronounced climate variations that clearly affected this region during the Last Termination. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7456,2006,3,3,CO2 and albedo climate impacts of extratropical carbon and biomass plantations,We explored the climate impacts for two land-use change scenarios| aimed at mitigating the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the integrated assessment model IMAGE 2.2| we found that the large-scale implementation in the extratropics of either carbon-sequestration or modern-biomass plantations decreases the CO2 concentration with 70-80 ppmv by the year 2100 compared to a nonmitigation baseline. In a coupled land/atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice model this moderates global warming over the 21st century by 10%. However| the carbon-sequestration option raises the absorption of solar radiation due to a lower albedo compared to the scenario involving modern-biomass plantations (for biofuels production). The albedo-induced difference in global mean temperature is as large as the mitigation by CO2 changes in the two scenarios compared to the baseline. Further| an atmospheric circulation change in the carbon-plantation scenario weakens the supply of moisture from the oceans to North Africa and central Eurasia. In our model this decreases annual mean precipitation over North Africa by up to 10% and further increases summer temperatures over Eurasia. These findings lead us to conclude that other climate impacts than just CO2 changes have to be taken into account when discussing climate-change mitigation options that involve land-use changes. 1707,2006,2,4,Coastal processes and morphological change in the Dunwich-Sizewell area| Suffolk| UK,The Suffolk coast around Dunwich and Sizewell has experienced major changes during the past 2000 years| with significant loss of land caused by marine erosion. Against a background of projected acceleration in sea level rise and storminess resulting from global climate change| concern has been expressed that present coastal defences may become unsustainable in the medium to longer term| and that the survival of internationally important wildlife habitats is under threat. This paper examines the past coastal evolution in the light of natural processes| and provides a discussion of future management options. Based on analysis of historical maps| charts| air photographs| and ground survey data| it is shown that rates of coastal erosion have actually been much lower in the last 50 years than historically| and at present there is little scientific evidence to support a case for large-scale managed realignment or abandonment of flood and coastal defences. However| in some areas| notably the very northern end of the Minsmere barrier and the middle part of the Dunwich-Walberswick barrier| local realignment and/or construction of stronger secondary flood defences are required to establish a coastal condition that is more in equilibrium with current processes| and to provide adequate protection against marine flooding even under present climatic and sea level conditions. 7645,2006,2,3,Combined effects of elevated temperature and carbon dioxide on geometry of maize leaves,An accurate prediction of variations in water consumption from a field and in the crop growth affected by the climate change due to global warming is important for the continuous agricultural activities. Components of water consumption in a farmland| i.e. transpiration from the crop surface and evaporation from the soil surface| are influenced by the structure of crop canopy. In this study| the combined effects of elevated temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration on the geometry and longevity of leaves of maize were examined through an experiment with growth chambers. Three treatments| i.e. TLCL (air temperature day/night: 28/22 degrees C| CO2 concentration: 350ppm)| TLCH (28/22 degrees C| 750ppm)| and THCH (32/26 degrees C| 750ppm)| were performed in different closed chamber respectively| and sixteen of maize (Zea mays L. cv. Pioneer G-98) planted in a pot were grown in each treatment. The cumulative thermal time from emergence of plant until the expansion of the ith leaf became larger in the order| TLCH < TLCL < THCH. The longevity of the ith leaf became longer in the order| TLCL < TLCH < THCH. Area of the ith leaf in THCH was clearly smaller than that in TLCL and TLCH. 7464,2006,3,4,Comparative analysis of CO2 and SO2 emissions between combined and conventional cycles with natural gas and fuel oil consumption over the Spanish thermal power plants,The concern over 'global warming' and 'acid rain'| stands out the possibility of re-converting fuel-oil boilers into natural gas| because SO2 emissions would be almost annulled but also because it would mean a great decreasing of 'carbon' in the fuel matrix| reducing also CO2 emissions. Another important fact is the progressive substitution of conventional power plant schemes for combined cycles| due mainly to their higher efficiency. In this paper| a comparison (in terms of emissions) was carried out between both cycles for natural gas and fuel-oil consumption over a representative Spanish thermal power plant. Finally| a comparison with experimental values has been performed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7411,2006,3,3,Comparative efficiencies and implications for greenhouse gas emissions of chiller refrigerants,This paper summarizes analyses of refrigerant options for chillers. It presents tabulated global warming potentials and other environmental data for candidate refrigerants. The paper discusses briefly the historic progression in refrigerant release reductions and presents analyses to compare the efficiencies of historic and current refrigerant options. The 28 refrigerants addressed include chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)| hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC)| hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)| hydrocarbon (HC)| and inorganic (such as ammonia) fluids. The paper discusses the relative importance of the refrigerant-related and energy-related components of chiller emissions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 1604,2006,2,4,Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change,The World Health Organization has developed standardized comparative risk assessment methods for estimating aggregate disease burdens attributable to different risk factors. These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate-sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely proportional changes in the future. The comparative risk assessment approach has been used to assess the health consequences of climate change worldwide| to inform decisions on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions| and in a regional assessment of the Oceania region in the Pacific Ocean to provide more location-specific information relevant to local mitigation and adaptation decisions. The approach places climate change within the same criteria for epidemiologic assessment as other health risks and accounts for the size of the burden of climate-sensitive diseases rather than just proportional change| which highlights the importance of small proportional changes in diseases such as diarrhea and malnutrition that cause a large burden. These exercises help clarify important knowledge gaps such as a relatively poor understanding of the role of nonclimatic factors (socioeconomic and other) that may modify future climatic influences and a lack of empiric evidence and methods for quantifying more complex climate-health relationships| which consequently are often excluded from consideration. These exercises highlight the need for risk assessment frameworks that make the best use of traditional epidemiologic methods and that also fully consider the specific characteristics of climate change. These include the long-term and uncertain nature of the exposure and the effects on multiple physical and biotic systems that have the potential for diverse and widespread effects| including high-impact events. 7537,2006,2,4,Complex phenological responses to climate warming trends? Lessons from history,Responsiveness of Lepidoptera phenology to climate has been detected in a number of species during the current trend in global warming. There is still a question of whether climate signals would be evident in historical data. In this paper we examine the climatic response of 155 species of moths and butterflies collected during the period 1866-1884 in Wiltshire| southern England. In general| species responded to increased temperature in the previous October by delayed appearance and to increased temperature in the current spring by advanced appearance. Thus| differential changes in temperatures of the autumn and spring could well affect changes in the relative pattern of the phenology of species. Attributes influencing the species' ecology were examined to see if they influenced temperature responsiveness. In general| few consistent effects emerged| though responsiveness to climate was found to be greater for species eclosing later in the year| specifically to the previous autumn temperatures.. and to hibernal environment| increasingly for species less exposed to air temperatures. These findings warn against expecting simple responses to climate warming. 7595,2006,3,4,Compost and mulch effects on gaseous flux from an alfisol in Ohio,Accelerating soil erosion| leading to loss of the surface soil| is a common occurrence in croplands oil undulating terrain. Yet the impact of erosion and reclamation measure on emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) is not known. Three predominant GHG emitted from cropland are as follows: carbon dioxide (CO2)| nitrous oxide (N2O)| and methane (CH4). The most abundant GHG is CO2| but N2O and CH4 are also important| with global warming potentials (GWP) of 297 and 23| respectively. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of imitated soil erosion on gaseous emission| to determine the effects of application of wheat (Triticum aestivum) residue mulch and swine manure and soybean (Glycine max) residue compost as soil-restorative measures on fluxes of CO2| N2O| and CH4 from uncropped| undisturbed| and desurfaced plots| and to determine relations between GHG fluxes and air and soil temperature| precipitation| and soil-moisture regimes. The microplot (2 X 2 m) experiment was established in 2002 on a Crosby silt loam (fine mixed Aeric Ochraqudalf) near South Charleston| Ohio. The experimental design included two soils: undisturbed and desurfaced soil in which the top 0-cm to 20-cm layer was mechanically removed to simulate severe soil erosion. There were three cover treatments: bare soil| wheat mulch at the rate of 8 Mg dry matter ha(-1) y(-1)| and compost made from swine manure and soybean residues at the rate of 20 Mg dry matter ha(-1) y(-1). All plots received mineral fertilizer at the rate of 100 kg N ha(-1). Desurfacing decreased soil moisture| increased temperature| decreased daily and annual CO2 fluxes (1.05 vs. 1-59 g CO2-C m(-2) d(-1))| and increased N2O fluxes (3.58 vs. 1.81 mg N2O-N m(-2) d(-1)). Daily CO2 and annual fluxes were higher from compost than mulch plots. The lowest daily CO2 flux was measured from bare plots. The daily N2O fluxes significantly increased after compost application but were more significantly affected by rainfall events. CH4 fluxes were characterized by a high variability; however| more uptake was observed in compost (-0.41| kg ha(-1) y(-1)) than in mulch (0.60 kg ha(-1) y(-1)) and bare plots (2.75 kg ha(-1) y(-1)). Daily CO2 fluxes were positively correlated with soil (r = 0.82) and air temperatures (r = 0.84) and negatively correlated with soil-moisture content (r = -0.53). Daily N2O fluxes were highly correlated with precipitation (r = 0.88). Fluxes of CO2 and N2O were mutually correlated (r = 0.56)| but CH4 fluxes were not correlated with temperature| moisture| precipitation| or fluxes of other GHG. Computed GWP was higher in compost-covered plots than in mulched and bare plots. Estimation of fluxes of GHG indicates that N2O accounts for 1.3% to 28% and CH4 for -0.5% to 5% of the total emission. Therefore| a completed assessment of flux of GHG must be based on measurement of all three gases (i.e.| CO2| N2O| and CH4). 7288,2006,2,3,Computational assessment of a proposed technique for global warming mitigation via albedo-enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds,A simplified version of the model of marine stratocumulus clouds developed by Bower| Jones and Choularton [Bower| K.N.| Jones| A.| and Choularton| T.W.| 1999. A modeling study of aerosol processing by stratocumulus clouds and its impact on GCM parameterisations of cloud and aerosol. Atmospheric Research| Vol. 50| Nos. 3-4| The Great Dun Fell Experiment| 1995-special issue| 317-344.] was used to examine the sensitivity of the albedo-enhancement global warming mitigation scheme proposed by Latham [Latham| J.| 1990. Control of global warming? Nature 347| 339-340; Latham| J.| 2002. Amelioration of global warming by controlled enhancement of the albedo and longevity of low-level maritime clouds. Atmos. Sci. Letters (doi:10.1006/Asle.2002.0048).] to the cloud and environmental aerosol characteristics| as well as those of the seawater aerosol of salt-mass m(s) and number concentration Delta N| which-under the scheme-are advertently introduced into the clouds. Values of albedo-change Delta A and droplet number concentration N(d) were calculated for a wide range of values of m(s)| Delta N| updraught speed W| cloud thickness Delta Z and cloud-base temperature T(B): for three measured aerosol spectra| corresponding to ambient air of negligible| moderate and high levels of pollution. Our choices of parameter value ranges were determined by the extent of their applicability to the mitigation scheme| whose current formulation is still somewhat preliminary| thus rendering unwarranted in this study the utilisation of refinements incorporated into other stratocumulus models. In agreement with earlier studies: (1) Delta A was found to be very sensitive to Delta N and (within certain constraints) insensitive to changes in m(s)| W| Delta Z and T(B); (2) Delta A was greatest for clouds formed in pure air and least for highly polluted air. In many situations considered to be within the ambit of the mitigation scheme| the calculated Delta A values exceeded those estimated by earlier workers as being necessary to produce a cooling sufficient to compensate| globally| for the warming resulting from a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Our calculations provide quantitative support for the physical viability of the mitigation scheme and offer new insights into its technological requirements. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V. 7376,2006,2,4,Conflicting signals of climatic change in the Upper Indus Basin,Temperature data for seven instrumental records in the Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) have been analyzed for seasonal and annual trends over the period 1961 - 2000 and compared with neighboring mountain regions and the Indian subcontinent. Strong contrasts are found between the behavior of winter and summer temperatures and between maximum and minimum temperatures. Winter mean and maximum temperature show significant increases while mean and minimum summer temperatures show consistent decline. Increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) is consistently observed in all seasons and the annual dataset| a pattern shared by much of the Indian subcontinent but in direct contrast to both GCM projections and the narrowing of DTR seen worldwide. This divergence commenced around the middle of the twentieth century and is thought to result from changes in large-scale circulation patterns and feedback processes associated with the Indian monsoon. The impact of observed seasonal temperature trend on runoff is explored using derived regression relationships. Decreases of similar to 20% in summer runoff in the rivers Hunza and Shyok are estimated to have resulted from the observed 1 C fall in mean summer temperature since 1961| with even greater reductions in spring months. The observed downward trend in summer temperature and runoff is consistent with the observed thickening and expansion of Karakoram glaciers| in contrast to widespread decay and retreat in the eastern Himalayas. This suggests that the western Himalayas are showing a different response to global warming than other parts of the globe. 7406,2006,2,4,Consequences of elevated temperatures on life-history traits of an introduced fish| pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus,Life-history reactions of a pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus population in north-eastern France exposed to heated waters were studied. The study was conducted from 2001 to 2003 in an artificial reservoir| adjacent to a nuclear power plant| in which water temperatures are cool in winter (8.2-12.4 degrees C) and rise early in spring (April: 14-7 degrees C) nearly 5 degrees C and 3 degrees C over the temperature of its tributary| respectively. Fast growth among young-of-the-year| precocious maturity and short life span were observed| in contrast to related studies. The short life span appeared to be the price paid for early maturity in breeding fish| which suffered high mortality rates just after their first reproduction. (c) 2006 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles 1764,2006,2,4,Consequences of simultaneous elevation of carbon dioxide and temperature for plant-herbivore interactions: a metaanalysis,The effects of elevated carbon dioxide on plant-herbivore interactions have been summarized in a number of narrative reviews and metaanalyses| while accompanying elevation of temperature has not received sufficient attention. The goal of our study is to search| by means of metaanalysis| for a general pattern in responses of herbivores| and plant characteristics important for herbivores| to simultaneous experimental increase of carbon dioxide and temperature (ECET) in comparison with both ambient conditions and responses to elevated CO2 (EC) and temperature (ET) applied separately. Our database includes 42 papers describing studies of 31 plant species and seven herbivore species. Nitrogen concentration and C/N ratio in plants decreased under both EC and ECET treatments| whereas ET had no significant effect. Concentrations of nonstructural carbohydrates and phenolics increased in EC| decreased in ET and did not change in ECET treatments| whereas terpenes did not respond to EC but increased in both ET and ECET; leaf toughness increased in both EC and ECET. Responses of defensive secondary compounds to treatments differed between woody and green tissues as well as between gymnosperm and angiosperm plants. Insect herbivore performance was adversely affected by EC| favoured by ET| and not modified by ECET. Our analysis allowed to distinguish three types of relationships between CO2 and temperature elevation: (1) responses to EC do not depend on temperature (nitrogen| C/N| leaf toughness| phenolics in angiosperm leaves)| (2) responses to EC are mitigated by ET (sugars and starch| terpenes in needles of gymnosperms| insect performance) and (3) effects emerge only under ECET (nitrogen in gymnosperms| and phenolics and terpenes in woody tissues). This result indicates that conclusions of CO2 elevation studies cannot be directly extrapolated to a more realistic climate change scenario. The predicted negative effects of CO2 elevation on herbivores are likely to be mitigated by temperature increase. 1698,2006,2,4,Conservation and restoration of the Pinus palustris ecosystem,The well-documented decline of the Pinus palustris ecosystem has resulted from several anthropogenic influences| such as forest clearing (e.g. pine plantation forestry| agriculture) and urban development| both of which are closely related to increases in human populations. Other impacts have arisen from alterations in disturbance regimes responsible for maintaining the structure and function of these ecosystems. Restoration and management of degraded pine savanna ecosystems is critical. Identification of ecological processes that determine the structure and function of the intact system are important because successful restoration efforts should be based on sound scientific understanding. In this paper| we introduce this special issue on the ecology| conservation| and restoration of the Pinus palustris ecosystem. Some global climate change scenarios have suggested that future changes may occur that alter frequency and severity of disturbances such as fires and hurricanes. Such changes may have large effects on pine stands| and ultimately entire Pinus palustris savanna ecosystems| thus presenting further challenges to their sustainable management. 7334,2006,2,4,Conservation status of the dwarf crag lizard| Pseudocordylus nebulosus| from the Hottentots Holland Mountains| South Africa,The dwarf crag lizard| Pseudocordylus nebulosus| is one of several relict ectotherm species associated with the mistbelt of the Cape Fold Mountains. Prior to this study| it was only known from a single locality in the Hottentots Holland Mountains. The extent of occurrence of R nebulosus was determined| resource partitioning among the three melanistic cordylids (C. oelolseni| P. capensis and P. nebulosus)| co-occurring in this area| investigated| and the conservation status of P. nebulosus re-evaluated. The extent of occurrence of P. nebulosus was estimated to be only 11 km(2). Of the three melanistic cordylids| P. nebulosus has by far the smallest range| completely overlapping the ranges of both the other two melanistic cordylids. Pseudocordylus nebulosus was found to show a distinct affinity for surface water such as mountain streams and seepage areas. Distinct differences in resource partitioning were found among the three species regarding crevice selection| which should prevent any significant competition during periods of environmental stress. Although inappropriate fire management and global warming may be immediate threats to the survival of this species| the threats posed by the popular hiking trail in the area are probably less significant than were previously thought. It is proposed that the Vulnerable status for this species be maintained and that the status of the species should be closely monitored. This study provides baseline data that could be used in future monitoring programmes to predict declines and fluctuations. 1660,2006,2,4,Conserving and increasing biodiversity in the large-scale| intensive farming systems of the Western Cape| South Africa,The Convention on Biological Diversity| adopted in 1992 in Nairobi and signed by many states| including South Africa| at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro later that year| urges nations to conserve biological diversity. This places a special responsibility on farmers| who own most of the land. Yet agricultural practices usually aim at simplifying ecosystems in favour of the crops (and animals) that are produced. In the Western Cape province of South Africa| this process has resulted in extensive monocultures of wheat| grapevines and fruit trees. The questions arise: should farmers bring more biodiversity back into these systems and| if so| how can they do it? Apart from the moral obligation to do so| perceived benefits include the possibility of greater economic and ecological stability| especially under conditions of global climate change; enhanced aesthetic appeal and greater acceptance of farming practices by the public in general and purchasers of farm produce in particular. Possible disadvantages are short-term losses in productivity and profitability. Measures that will contribute towards increasing biodiversity include: intercropping; the planting and maintenance of shelter belts| buffer strips and natural corridors; retaining riparian and other areas of high value natural vegetation; making dams attractive to wildlife; reducing the impact of pesticides; educating farmers and farm workers about the values of biodiversity conservation; and providing financial incentives to landowners for biodiversity conservation. An overview is provided in this paper of current international and national biodiversity conservation policies and programmes and some of the local initiatives that are active in the Western Cape to protect and re-establish biodiversity. 7408,2006,2,4,Contribution by the methanogenic endosymbionts of anaerobic ciliates to methane production in Dutch freshwater sediments,Biogenic methane contributes substantially to the atmospheric methane concentration and thus to global warming. This trace gas is predominantly produced by strictly anaerobic methanogenic archaea| which thrive in the most divergent ecological niches| e. g. paddy fields| sediments| landfills| and the digestive tract of various animals. Methanogenic archaea also live as endosymbionts in the cytoplasm of anaerobic protozoa. In marine sediments these endosymbionts can Contribute up to 90% to the overall rate of methanogenesis| whereas their role of in freshwater sediments is largely unknown. Here we describe the results of a one year's survey of the methanogenesis by endosymbiotic methanogens in four different Dutch freshwater sedients. The abundance of anaerobic protozoa| in particular ciliates| the methane production rates by the ecosystem and by the protists| and a number of abiotic parameters were measured. A novel method (heat-shock for 5 nun) for estimating the contribution by endosymbiotic methanogens was established. Our results reveal large fluctuations of ciliate abundance throughout the year| but on average. only minor contributions by methanogenic endosymbionts to the total methanogenesis in these environments. 7381,2006,2,4,Coral bleaching| reef fish community phase shifts and the resilience of coral reefs,The 1998 global coral bleaching event was the largest recorded historical disturbance of coral reefs and resulted in extensive habitat loss. Annual censuses of reef fish community structure over a 12-year period spanning the bleaching event revealed a marked phase shift from a prebleach to postbleach assemblage. Surprisingly| we found that the bleaching event had no detectable effect on the abundance| diversity or species richness of a local cryptobenthic reef fish community. Furthermore| there is no evidence of regeneration even after 5-35 generations of these short-lived species. These results have significant implications for our understanding of the response of coral reef ecosystems to global warming and highlight the importance of selecting appropriate criteria for evaluating reef resilience. 7243,2006,2,4,Coral reefs reduce tsunami impact in model simulations,Significant buffering of the impact of tsunamis by coral reefs is suggested by limited observations and some anecdotal reports| particularly following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Here we simulate tsunami run-up on idealized topographies in one and two dimensions using a nonlinear shallow water model and show that a sufficiently wide barrier reef within a meter or two of the surface reduces run-up on land on the order of 50%. We studied topographies representative of volcanic islands (islands with no continental shelf) but our conclusions may pertain to other topographies. Effectiveness depends on the amplitude and wavelength of the incident tsunami| as well as the geometry and health of the reef and the offshore distance of the reef. Reducing the threat to reefs from anthropogenic nutrients| sedimentation| fishing practices| channel-building| and global warming would help to protect some islands against tsunamis. 7602,2006,5,4,Correlation of the Late Cenozoic endogenic events and climatic variations in Central Asia,Trend of climatic changes in geological history of the Earth was determined by gradual decrease in the global surface temperature. Substantial deviations from this trend depended on the prevalent type of volcanism: predominantly explosive volcanism at convergent boundaries between lithospheric plates led to cooling and onset of glacial epochs| while intense intraplate volcanism strengthened greenhouse effect and resulted in global warming. During cold epochs| orogenic processes played an important role in climatic variations. The most frequent and regular climatic variations are controlled by the Earth position in solar orbit (Milankovitch cycles). The Late Cenozoic variations of cold climate were interrelated with orogenic processes caused by collision between the Indian and North Asian lithospheric plates. The first event of considerable cooling in the Northern Hemisphere (2.8-2.5 Ma ago) coincided with a rapid growth of mountains throughout the collision belt. The Tibetan Plateau formed in South Asia. In Central Asia| the large (>1.5 x 10(6) km(2)) Khangai-Altai-Sayan mountain system appeared 3 Ma ago. Total area subjected to orogenic processes in Central and South Asia exceeded 9 x 10(6) km(2). The intense intraplate volcanism suggests that sublithospheric mantle was involved into orogenic processes. Alternation of glacial and interglacial climatic epochs during the last 1.8 m.y. is recorded in Central Asia. These climatic variations are compatible with the Milankovitch cycles. As is established| climatic events recognizable in the Baikal sedimentary record are correlative with interglacial and glacial epochs detectable in volcanic lavas of the East Sayan Mountains. There are indications of lava eruptions into ice during the cold periods. It is assumed therefore that all the cooling epochs detectable in the Baikal sedimentary record after 1.8 Ma were associated with development of mountain glaciation that formed glacial sheet up to 3 km thick and 100000 km(2) in size. During the Brunhes Chron| there were eight glaciations at least. The endogenic (volcanism and orogeny) and exogenic (glaciation) processes during the last 3 m.y. are shown to be correlative. The intermittent development and degradation of thick ice sheets was responsible for oscillation of lithospheric load on the asthenosphere| and this caused periodical magma generation in marginal parts of volcanic provinces. 1640,2006,4,2,Correlations between carbon dioxide emissions and carbon contents of fuels,The gases (they consist of three or more atoms) with higher heat capacities than those of O-2 and N-2 cause greenhouse effect. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is main greenhouse gas associated with global climate change. Collectively| they are projected to contribute| directly| about as much too potential global warming over the next 60 years as CO2. At the present time| coal is responsible for 30-40% of world CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. There were a higher correlation between amount of carbon dioxide emission and percentage of carbon in the fuel for all equations. The squares of correlation coefficients were 0.9999| 0.9978| and 0.9995. 7717,2006,3,3,Costs savings of a flexible multi-gas climate policy,Current climate policies are based on the use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to compare emissions of various greenhouse gases. Yet| from an economic point of view| more efficient methods exist. We compare the potential costs of implementing some long-term goal for stabilization of the climate in three cases: Reduce CO2 emissions only| reduce emissions of the four greenhouse gases CO2| CH4| N2O and SF6 using the standard IPCC GWPs and reduce emissions of the same four gases with efficient and flexible| time dependent metrics. A multi-gas approach with GWPs reduces the costs by 8 percent when compared with CO2 reductions only| whereas the costs may be reduced by an additional 2 percent if using flexible metrics. If compared with the use of GWPs| we find that efficient weights increase the cost savings of including non-CO2 gases in climate policy by 15-40%| depending on the stabilization goal. 7691,2006,3,4,Cropping systems| carbon sequestration and erosion in Brazil| a review,Soils represent a large carbon pool| approximately 1500 Gt| which is equivalent to almost three times the quantity stored in terrestrial biomass and twice the amount stored in the atmosphere. Any modification of land use or land management can induce variations in soil carbon stocks| even in agricultural systems that are perceived to be in a steady state. Tillage practices often induce soil aerobic conditions that are favourable to microbial activity and may lead to a degradation of soil structure. As a result| mineralisation of soil organic matter increases in the long term. The adoption of no-tillage systems and the maintenance of a permanent vegetation cover using Direct seeding Mulch-based Cropping system or DMC| may increase carbon levels in the topsoil. In Brazil| no-tillage practices (mainly DMC)| were introduced approximately 30 years ago in the south in the Parana state| primarily as a means of reducing erosion. Subsequently| research has begun to study the management of the crop waste products and their effects on soil fertility| either in terms of phosphorus management| as a means of controlling soil acidity| or determining how manures can be applied in a more localised manner. The spread of no-till in Brazil has involved a large amount of extension work. The area under no-tillage is still increasing in the centre and north of the country and currently occupies ca. 20 million hectares| covering a diversity of environmental conditions| cropping systems and management practices. Most studies of Brazilian soils give rates of carbon storage in the top 40 cm of the soil of 0.4 to 1.7 t C ha(-1) per year| with the highest rates in the Cerrado region. However| caution must be taken when analysing DMC systems in terms of carbon sequestration. Comparisons should include changes in trace gas fluxes and should not be limited to a consideration of carbon storage in the soil alone if the full implications for global warming are to be assessed. 7667,2006,2,4,Current and future water issues in the Oldman River Basin of Alberta| Canada,Long-term trends in alpine and prairie snow pack accumulation and melt are affecting streamflow within the Oldman River Basin in southern Alberta| Canada. Unchecked rural and urban development also has contributed to changes in water quality| including enhanced microbial populations and increased water borne pathogen occurrence. In this study we look at changing environment within the Oldman River Basin and its impact on water quality and quantity. The cumulative effects include a decline in net water supplies| and declining quality resulting in increased risk of disease. Our data indicates that decreases in the rate of flow of water can result in sedimentation of bacterial contaminants within the water column. Water for ecosystems| urban consumption| recreation and distribution through irrigation is often drawn from waterholding facilities such as dams and weirs| and concern must be expressed over the potential for contaminate build-up and disproportionate potential of these structures to pose a risk to human and animal health. With disruption of natural flow rates for water resulting from environmental change such as global warming and/or human intervention| increased attention needs to be paid to use of best management practices to protect source water supplies. 7551,2006,4,3,Cutting the "Gordian knot" in climate change policy,Ongoing conflict over the fair allocation of greenhouse gas emissions among nations is a significant impediment to progress in international climate change negotiations. This article considers the strengths and weaknesses of a crucial argument within the allocation debate asserting the atmospheric capacity to absorb greenhouse gases should be distributed oil an equal per capita basis. While noting the argument's many appealing qualities| the paper argues that the per capita perspective also encompasses important practical and ethical limitations. Besides potentially encouraging Population growth and discriminating against those with greater (but still legitimate) energy needs| early evidence suggests that the equal per capita idea may hinder progress in climate change talks by invoking a more absolutist and uncompromising rhetoric of rights. Alternative ideas of fairness| Such as the distinction between Subsistence and luxury emissions| or the Common Heritage of Mankind idea| offer a more flexible mix of egalitarian and other allocation principles that should be considered carefully| even by those sympathetic to the equal per capita perspective. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7258,2006,5,4,Cyanobacterial calcification| carbon dioxide concentrating mechanisms| and Proterozoic-Cambrian changes in atmospheric composition,Photosynthetic uptake of inorganic carbon can raise the pH adjacent to cyanobacterial cells| promoting CaCO(3) precipitation. This effect is enhanced by CO(2) concentrating mechanisms that actively transport HCO(3)(-) into cells for carbon fixation. CO(2) concentrating mechanisms presumably developed in response to atmospheric decrease in CO(2) and increase in O(2) over geological timescales. In present-day cyanobacteria| CO(2) concentrating mechanisms are induced when the atmospheric partial pressure of CO(2) (p(CO2)) falls below similar to 0.4%. Reduction in p(CO2) during the Proterozoic may have had two successive effects on cyanobacterial calcification. First| fall in p(CO2) below similar to 1% (33 times present atmospheric level| PAL) resulted in lower dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations that reduced pH buffering sufficiently for isolated CaCO(3) crystals to begin to nucleate adjacent to cyanobacterial cells. As a result| blooms of planktic cyanobacteria induced precipitated 'whitings' of carbonate mud in the water column whose sedimentary accumulation began to dominate carbonate platforms similar to 1400-1300 Ma. Second| fall in p(CO2) below similar to 0.4% (10 PAL) induced CO(2)-concentrating mechanisms that further increased pH rise adjacent to cells and promoted in vivo cyanobacterial sheath calcification. Crossing of this second threshold is indicated in the fossil record by the appearance of Girvanella 750-700 Ma. Coeval acquisition of CO(2) concentrating mechanisms by planktic cyanobacteria further stimulated whiting production. These inferences| that p(CO2) fell below similar to 1% similar to 1400-1300 Ma and below similar to 0.4% 750-700 Ma| are consistent with empirical and modelled palaeo-atmosphere estimates. Development of CO(2) concentrating mechanisms was probably temporarily slowed by global cooling similar to 700-570 Ma that favoured diffusive entry of CO(2) into cells. Lower levels of temperature and DIC at this time would have reduced seawater carbonate saturation state| also hindering cyanobacterial calcification. It is suggested that as Earth emerged from 'Snowball' glaciations in the late Neo-proterozoic| global warming and O(2) rise reactivated the development of CO(2) concentrating mechanisms. At the same time| rising levels of temperature| calcium ions and DIC increased seawater carbonate saturation state| stimulating widespread cyanobacterial in vivo sheath calcification in the Early Cambrian. This biocalcification event promoted rapid widespread development of calcified cyanobacterial reefs and transformed benthic microbial carbonate fabrics. 7548,2006,2,4,Decomposition and nitrogen dynamics of litter in peat soils from two climatic regions under different temperature regimes,Soil temperature is a major factor affecting organic matter decomposition and thus| global warming may accelerate decomposition processes. However| it remains unclear whether the effects will be similar in climatically different regions. The effects of soil temperatures of 5| 10 and 15 degrees C on the decomposition of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) needles were assessed in a 1-year (360 days) growth chamber experiment. Intact peat cores from two climatically different peatland sites (southern and northern Finland) were used as the incubation environments. Needles were incubated in litter bags beneath the living moss layer| and mass loss and nitrogen (N) concentration were determined at 60-day intervals. The rate of mass loss from the needles over time was clearly lower in the 5 degrees C treatment than at the higher temperatures. Mass loss was strongly related to the accumulated soil temperature sum. In temperatures higher than 5 degrees C| mass losses were higher in the northern peat. Also| the limit value of decomposition (asymptotic maximum mass loss) was slightly higher in the northern peat (92%)| than in the southern peat (87%). The N concentration increased up to a mass loss of 50-60%| whereupon it decreased| while the amount of N (as a percentage of the original amount) remained unchanged until a mass loss of 50-60%| whereupon it decreased linearly. It seems that increasing soil temperatures may result in slightly higher rates of needle litter mass loss and consequent N release in northern peat than in southern peat. The faster decomposition in higher temperatures in the northern peat| together with the slightly higher maximum mass loss value| imply that with climatic warming| susceptibility of boreal peatlands for becoming sources of carbon to the atmosphere may increase towards north. (c) 2006 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. 7650,2006,4,2,Detection-attribution of global warming at the regional scale: How to deal with precipitation variability?,Given the strong natural variability of precipitation| detection of anthropogenic climate change has been mainly based on surface thermal indicators. It is here argued that precipitation variability| whatever its natural or anthropogenic origin| is likely to affect surface temperature and| thereby| to hamper the detection-attribution of climate change at the regional scale. This issue is illustrated over Sudan and Sahel using the outputs of eleven coupled general circulation models having participated in the latest IPCC simulations. Like in situ observations| models show a strong relationship between detrended seasonal anomalies of surface air temperature and precipitation during the summer monsoon season. Linear regressions are then used to remove the precipitation influence on observed and simulated linear trends in surface air temperature. The results indicate that this strategy is efficient to reduce the spread in the simulated surface warming and make it more consistent with the instrumental record over recent decades. 1623,2006,2,4,Determination of forest growth trends in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia): combination of tree-ring analysis and remote sensing data,It is very important to detect changes in forest productivity due to the global change on a large scale. In this work| the evolution of the vegetation in the Komi Republic (northwestern Russia) from 1982 to 2001 was analyzed using NOAA AVHRR PAL time series. A statistically significant correlation (adjusted r(2) = 0.44-0.59) between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and tree ring width (261 living trees) was identified for the territory of the Komi Republic. The increased site productivity reflected an increase of integrated NDVI values from June to August. This allows NDVI to be used as a proxy for estimation of forest growth trends for the recent decades. A positive and significant trend in NDVI data was identified from 1982 to 2001| coinciding with an increase in site productivity in the study area. The decrease in precipitations coincided with an increase in site productivity (highest r(2) was 0.71). The increase in productivity reflected in NDVI data is maximal on the sites with increased temperature and decreased precipitations. In the Komi Republic the distribution of the trends in NDVI data changes on the south-west to north-east gradient. NDVI data could be used to increase spatial resolution of tree ring width series. Taking into account the relatively small role of human activity in the Komi Republic compared with Europe| the site productivity during recent decades also increased in relatively untouched forests. 7505,2006,3,4,Dielectric rigidity of a gas-support interface with metal contaminant in the dry air and SF6-air mixtures,In this paper| we conduct a series of experiments aimed at analysing the dielectric properties of compressed dry air| and some SF6-air mixtures up to 700 kPa| under application of AC 50 Hz and lightning impulse (LI) 1.2 s/50 s voltage. The investigations were carried out by using a cylindrical spacer model with an adhering particle on the surface under homogenous field conditions. We measure the partial discharges (PD) propagation characteristics under LI voltage stress| as well as the PD inception voltage and the flashover voltage for the contaminated particle. We also investigate the surface charge accumulation on the spacer surface under contaminated particle conditions. The results of the experiments reveal the influence a conducting particle has on the determined flashover field strength| for SF6-air mixtures compared with pure| compressed dry air. This influence is discussed for different particle lengths| but also for three different particle positions in the gap. Pure dry air achieves a higher dielectric strength when the particle gets into contact with the high voltage electrode| under negative LI voltage stress. The same result is obtained for the SF6-air mixtures| when the particle is located in the middle of the gap| as floating electrode on the spacer surface. The reported results contribute to the improvement of the models of breakdown through the interface gas-solid isolator. The application of these models should offer the possibility for considering the use of dry air| or its mixtures with SF6 which| normally have a lower relative global warming potential than pure SF6. 7709,2006,3,4,Diet| energy| and global warming,The energy consumption of animal- and plant-based diets and| more broadly| the range of energetic planetary footprints spanned by reasonable dietary choices are compared. It is demonstrated that the greenhouse gas emissions of various diets vary by as much as the difference between owning an average sedan versus a sport-utility vehicle under typical driving conditions. The authors conclude with a brief review of the safety of plant-based diets| and find no reasons for concern. 7390,2006,2,4,Differences in beech (Fagus crenata) regeneration between two types of Japanese beech forest and along a snow gradient,Differences in beech (Fagus crenata) regeneration were quantitatively investigated using power function analysis for the size-class (diameter at breast height| DBH) distribution and juvenile-to-canopy tree (J/C) ratio along a snow gradient throughout Japan. In snowy areas| all species combined| as well as F. crenata alone| showed constant regeneration| with parameter b approximate to-1.6 for the power function y=ax(b) (x=DBH| y=density)| which is related to the DBH-class distribution. The good fit of the data to the function suggests that beech regenerates constantly with self-thinning patch dynamics. Parameter a| which indicates the abundance of small trunks| was high. Furthermore| the mean J/C ratio was approximate to 8| i.e.| each parent beech tree produced eight juveniles. These results suggest that beech regenerates constantly with gap dynamics in snowy beech forests on the Japan Sea side of Japan (snowy). However| the fit of F. crenata was lower and nonsignificant in some forests in less snowy areas| despite the high fit of all species combined. In these areas| the mean of a was low| and b was often near zero for F. crenata regressions. These results suggest that the abundance of beech was low| and self-thinning was not evident because of the initial low abundance. Moreover| the mean J/C ratio was < 1.0| suggesting that juvenile density was lower than that of canopy trees. Thus| the regeneration of F. crenata on the Pacific Ocean side of Japan (less snowy) is rather sporadic. Less snowy conditions may promote seed desiccation| predation of beechnuts and seedlings| and water stress. Lower F. crenata density may also reduce predator satiation and wind pollination. 7271,2006,2,4,Disappearance of deep profundal zoobenthos in Lake Ikeda| southern Kyushu| Japan| with relation to recent environmental changes in the lake,A benthological survey in a deep caldera| Lake Ikeda| southern Kyushu| Japan| in 1998 revealed that no zoobenthos were found in the deep profundal| although two tubificid oligochaetes| Tubifex tubifex and Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri| and a chironomid| Procladius sp.| were distributed in the upper profundal zone. This is the first record of oligochaete composition in the lake. Lake Ikeda had been typically oligotrophic until the 1940s| and zoobenthic assemblages were recorded throughout the profundal bottom in the 1920s and 1970s. Recent disappearance of the deep profundal zoobenthos could be caused by the stagnation of anoxic waters in the hypolimnion| in connection with eutrophication triggered by nutrient loading| as well as change in the thermal circulation system presumably caused by global warming. 7689,2006,2,4,Distribution and cone production in Allocasuarina diminuta and A. gymnanthera (Casuarinaceae) in central New South Wales,Allocasuarina diminuta ( L. Johnson) and A. gymnanthera ( L. Johnson) are critical food resources of the threatened glossy black-cockatoo (Calyptorhynchus lathami) in central New South Wales. The distribution and cone production in these species was investigated as part of a broader study on the foraging ecology of the glossy black-cockatoo. Both Allocasuarina species were closely associated with vegetation communities occurring on the ridges and upper slopes. Cone production appeared to be linked to rainfall| with fewer cones produced in dry years. Rainfall during autumn-spring appeared to be especially important. Drought conditions resulted in the failure of plants to produce seed and caused the death of significant numbers of plants. Any decrease in moisture balance or increase in drought frequency/length due to global warming is likely to have negative consequences for Allocasuarina and glossy black-cockatoo populations. 1689,2006,3,4,Durability design of infrastructure and some related issues,The life cycle performance of any infrastructure should be taken into consideration in its design| its construction| its maintenance| its operation| and when needed| its rehabilitation. The protection of infrastructure must be holistic| taking into account long-term socioeconomic and environmental considerations and the impact of the global climate change. Fulfilling the requirements of the ultimate and serviceability limit states over the service life of the facility requires an understanding of the use of the system| the deterioration response of the materials and their components when subjected to aggressive environments| and how this deterioration can be prevented or significantly delayed by preventive| remedial| and routine maintenance. The composition| microstructure| macrostructure| and various modes of deterioration of materials used in construction (steel| wood| concrete) are reviewed| along with possible remedial measures. The development of concrete as a construction material| its durability| and the relevant durability provisions in the various Canadian Standards Association standards are reviewed briefly. Current European practice and the 1990 Comite Euro-International du beton Design Guide for Durable Concrete Structures are evaluated. The engineer's responsibility for durable performance of a facility and the importance of durability audits are also examined. 1726,2006,3,4,Dust storm in Asia continent and its bio-environmental effects in the North Pacific: A case study of the strongest dust event in April| 2001 in central Asia,Testing the effects of iron fertilization in booming metabolism of microbes in North Pacific Ocean has become an important hot topic in current global climate change study. The first supportive evidence with natural iron inputs to ocean was obtained by Bishop and his colleagues at the PAPA region in North Pacific Ocean. They found a rapid increase of marine phytoplankton over North Pacific Ocean after a strong dust storm in April 2001. We demonstrate that the dust deposition flux during this dust storm period decreases exponentially with increasing distance from the dust source regions along the dust transport pathway| through integration of synoptic dynamics| changes of TOMS-Al (aerosol index) and surface PM10 values along the dust pathway and changes of particulate organic carbon and chlorophyll in surface oceans. This strong dust storm may result in deposition of about 3.1-5.8 mu g/m(3) eolian iron into the PAPA region in North Pacific Ocean| thus causing a rapid increase of marine phytoplankton productivity observed by Bishop and his colleagues. This work supplies more direct and detailed evidence| from continental dust process| to support the iron hypothesis with natural iron inputs to the surface oceans through dust storms. 7342,2006,4,4,Dusty cloud radiative forcing derived from satellite data for middle latitude regions of East Asia,The dusty cloud radiative forcing over the middle latitude regions of East Asia was estimated by using the 2-year (July 2002-June 2004) data of collocated clouds and the Earth's radiant energy system (CERES) scanner and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) from Aqua Edition 1B SSF (single scanner footprint). The dusty cloud is defined as the cloud in dust storm environment or dust contaminated clouds. For clouds growing in the presence of dust| the instantaneous short-wave (SW) forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is about -275.7 W/m(2) for cloud over dust (COD) region. The clouds developing in no-dust cloud (CLD) regions yield the most negative short-wave (SW) forcing (-311.0 W/m(2))| which is about 12.8% stronger than those in COD regions. For long-wave (LW) radiative forcing| the no-dust cloud (CLD) is around 102.8 W/m(2)| which is 20% less than the LW forcing from COD regions. The instantaneous TOA net radiative forcing for the CLD region is about -208.2 W/m(2)| which is 42.1% larger than the values of COD regions. The existence of dust aerosols under clouds significantly reduces the cooling effect of clouds. 7652,2006,4,4,Dynamic and thermodynamic influences on intensified daily rainfall during the Asian summer monsoon under doubled atmospheric CO2 conditions,Results from time-slice ensemble experiments using a T106 AGCM revealed changes in the South Asian summer monsoon resulting from climate change. Model results under global warming conditions suggested more warming over land than over the ocean| a northward shift of lower tropospheric monsoon circulation| and an increase in mean precipitation during the Asian summer monsoon. The number of extreme daily precipitation events increased significantly. Increases in mean and extreme precipitation were attributed to greater atmospheric moisture content ( a thermodynamic change). In contrast| dynamic changes limited the intensification of mean precipitation. Enhanced extreme precipitation over land in South Asia arose from dynamic changes rather than thermodynamic changes. 1693,2006,2,4,Dynamical controls on estuarine bathymetry: Assessment against UK database,New theories for estuarine bathymetry provide formulations for: (1) depth at the mouth| D versus river flow| Q; (2) tidal intrusion length L versus D and Z (tidal amplitude) and (3) a zone of morphological existence| delineated on a framework of Z versus D. Here| these theories are assessed against a database for 80 UK estuaries. Overall there is good agreement between theory and observations for the sizes and shapes of estuaries classified as either 'Coastal Plain' or 'Bar Built'. Likewise| most estuaries are shown to lie within the theoretical 'zone of bathymetric existence'. These encouraging agreements enable the theories to be used to: (1) enhance our understanding of existing morphologies| (2) identify anomalous estuaries and (3) make future predictions regarding likely impacts from global climate change and related management scenarios. Subsequent examination of regional historical patterns of morphological evolution| introducing detailed local knowledge| should help to explain these anomalies and refine the new theories. By 2100| we anticipate changes in UK estuaries due to ('precautionary') projected 25 % changes in river flow of: Order (0.5 -5 km) in lengths and Order (50-250 m) in breadths. Corresponding changes due to a projected sea level rise of 50 cm are increases in both lengths of Order (1-2.5 km) and breadths of Order (70-100 m). In both cases| the bigger changes will occur in larger estuaries. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7279,2006,2,4,Earlier spring in Seoul| Korea,In the present study| long-term changes in the first bloom date of shrub and tree species in Seoul (126.56 degrees E| 37.34 degrees N)| Korea were examined using historical observational data for the period 1922-2004 (83 years). The study focused on two shrub species| golden-bell (Forsythia koreana) and azalea (Rhododendron mucronulatum)| and three tree species| cherry (Prunus yedoensis)| peach (Prunus persica)| and American locust (Robinia pseudoacacia). The annual-mean temperature has increased by about 2 degrees C in Seoul over the 83 years analyzed. The temperature increase is significant during the winter and early spring and becomes less significant during late spring. As a result of this regional warming| all five species showed an advance in the first bloom date over this time period. The advanced date is particularly apparent in early-spring flowering species like golden-bell (-2.4 days 10-year(-1))| azalea (-2.4 days 10-year(-1))| cherry (-1.4 days 10-year(-1))| and peach (-1.4 days 10-year(-1)) as compared to late-spring flowering species like American locust (-0.5 days 10-year(-1)). The present results have demonstrated that the major factor for the determination of flower blooming is heat accumulation| i.e. a certain threshold of growing degree-days (GDD) index. In particular| early spring flowers were sensitive to the accumulation of warm temperature than late-spring flowers. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. 7663,2006,3,4,Earth rings for planetary environment control,An artificial planetary ring about the Earth| composed of passive particles or controlled spacecraft with parasols| is proposed to reduce global warming. A flat ring from 1.2 to 1.6 Earth radii would shade mainly the tropics| moderating climate extremes| and counteract global warming. A preliminary design of the ring is developed| and a one-dimensional climate model is used to evaluate its performance. Earth| lunar| and asteroidal material sources are compared to determine the costs of the particle ring and the spacecraft ring. Environmental concerns and effects on existing satellites in Earth orbit are addressed. The particle ring endangers LEO satellites| is limited to cooling only| and lights the night many times as bright as the full moon. It would cost an estimated $6-200 trillion. The ring of controlled satellites with reflectors has other attractive uses| and would cost an estimated $125-500 billion. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 7414,2006,2,4,East Asian dust storm and weather disturbance: Possible links to the Arctic Oscillation,In this work| the authors investigated the spring dust storm frequency variations in northern China and its relationship with weather disturbances| cold high| eddy kinetic energy (EKE)| as well as the impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the dust storm frequency variations. It is found that there is a significantly decreasing trend of -26%/10 years in the dust storm frequency variations. In addition| the year-to-year variations are also remarkable| which account for 58.3% of the total variance of the dust storm frequency variations. The synoptic variance of 850 hPa height| EKE| and near-surface cold highs are highly correlated with the dust storm frequency variations. During the last 40 years or so| there have been significant trends in synoptic variance| cold-high frequency| and kinetic energy over northern China and Mongolia| which are -3.2| -4.0| and -5.0%/10 years| respectively. The trends are fairly consistent with long-term variations of dust storm frequency. The AO shows good correlation with the interannual variations of the dust storm frequency. This out-of-phase relation is supported by the significantly negative correlations between AO index and eddy growth rate between 850/700 hPa in midlatitude East Asia| implying that AO can modulate weather disturbances and dust storm activities through influencing the atmospheric instability. It is found| however| that the spring AO index shows no evident long-term trend. Land cover changes| global warming| and other climate teleconnections may| at least partly| be responsible for the secular decreasing of dust storm frequency over northern China. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. 1624,2006,5,4,Eastern Pacific cooling and Atlantic overturning circulation during the last deglaciation,Surface ocean conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean could hold the clue to whether millennial-scale global climate change during glacial times was initiated through tropical ocean - atmosphere feedbacks or by changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation(1). North Atlantic cold periods during Heinrich events and millennial-scale cold events (stadials) have been linked with climatic changes in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and South America(2-4)| as well as the Indian and East Asian monsoon systems(5|6)| but not with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures(7). Here we present a high-resolution record of sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific derived from alkenone unsaturation measurements. Our data show a temperature drop of 1 degrees C| synchronous ( within dating uncertainties) with the shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich event 1| and a smaller temperature drop of 0.5 degrees C synchronous with the smaller reduction in the overturning circulation during the Younger Dryas event. Both cold events coincide with maxima in surface ocean productivity as inferred from (230)Th-normalized carbon burial fluxes| suggesting increased upwelling at the time. From the concurrence of equatorial Pacific cooling with the two North Atlantic cold periods during deglaciation| we conclude that these millennial-scale climate changes were probably driven by a reorganization of the oceans' thermohaline circulation| although possibly amplified by tropical ocean - atmosphere interaction as suggested before(8). 7587,2006,3,4,Eco-efficiency (Factor X) for electrical and electronic products and a case study on home appliances in a household,Many institutes and companies are currently researching into eco-efficiency and Factor X as evaluation methods for environmentally conscious design. However| no standard method has been established. Moreover while the eco-efficiency of each home appliance is being improved| the increasing number and size of such home appliances may increase the overall environmental impact. This paper begins with describing a practical eco-efficiency (Factor X) indicator developed to evaluate environmentally conscious products or services. This indicator gives a rationalized relationship between their functional performance and environmental impacts. Next| the paper presents a brief case study of Factor X done in Japan that compared home appliances from 2003 with those from 1990 using such indicators. The number of home appliances used in a household increased 1.2 times from 65 to 79. However| GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions per year was 0.64 times the former amount| dropping from 8456 to 5383 kg-CO(2)eq/year| and the new resources and discarded resources per year became 0.99 times the previous amount| dropping from 231 to 228 kg/year. Therefore| GHG Factor X was 1.9 and Resource Factor X was 1.2. Although based on a restricted evaluation model| these results quantitatively show the potential to improve functional performance (as evaluated by the number of home appliances) and at the same time reduce their environmental impacts (as evaluated by GHG emissions and new resources and discarded resources). These results also show that Resource Factor X is more difficult to improve than GHG Factor X. Improving Resource Factor X and establishing a sound material-cycle society requires not only technological innovation and reform of the social system| but also a significant change in people's awareness. 1629,2006,2,4,Ecological niche modelling and prioritizing areas for species reintroductions,Species reintroduction programmes| in prioritizing areas for reintroductions| have traditionally used tools that include measures of habitat suitability and evaluations of area requirements for viable populations. Here we add two tools to this approach: evaluation of ecological requirements of species and evaluation of future suitability for species facing changing climates. We demonstrate this approach with two species for which reintroduction programmes are in the planning stages in Mexico: California condor Gymnogyps californianns and Mexican wolf Canis lupus baileyi. For the condor| we identify three areas clustered in the Sierra San Pedro Martir| Baja California; for the wolf| we identify a string of suitable sites along the Sierra Madre Occidental of western Mexico. We discuss the limitations of this approach| identifying ways in which the models illustrated could be made more realistic and directly useful to reintroduction programmes. 1679,2006,2,4,Ecosystem recovery: heathland response to a reduction in nitrogen deposition,Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen is responsible for widespread changes in the structure and function of sensitive seminatural ecosystems. The proposed reduction in emissions of nitrogenous pollutants in Europe under the Gothenburg Protocol raises the question of whether affected ecosystems have the potential to recover to their previous condition and| if so| over what timescale. Since 1998| we have monitored the response of a lowland heathland in southern England following the cessation of a long-term nitrogen addition experiment| and subsequent management| assessing changes in vegetation growth and chemistry| soil chemistry and the soil microbial community. Persistent effects of earlier nutrient loading on Calluna growth and phenology| and on the abundance of lichens| were apparent up to 8 years after nitrogen additions ceased| indicating the potential for long-term effects of modest nutrient loading (up to 15.4 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)| over 7 years) on heathland ecosystems. The size and activity of the soil microbial community was elevated in former N-treated plots| 6-8 years after additions ceased| suggesting a prolonged effect on the rate of nutrient cycling. Although habitat management in 1998 reduced nitrogen stores in plant biomass| effects on belowground nitrogen stores were small. Although some parameters (e.g. soil pH) recover pretreatment levels relatively rapidly| others (e.g. vegetation cover and microbial activity) respond much more slowly| indicating that the ecological effects of even small increases in nitrogen deposition will persist for many years after deposition inputs are reduced. Indeed| calculations suggest that the additional soil nitrogen storage associated with 7 years of experimental nitrogen inputs could sustain the observed effects on plant growth and phenology for several decades. Carry over effects on plant phenology and sensitivity to drought suggest that the persistence of vegetation responses to nitrogen deposition should be integrated into long-term assessments of the impact of global climate change on sensitive ecosystems. 1671,2006,2,4,Ecotypic variation in the context of global climate change: revisiting the rules,Patterns of ecotypic variation constitute some of the few 'rules' known to modern biology. Here| we examine several well-known ecogeographical rules| especially those pertaining to body size in contemporary| historical and fossil taxa. We review the evidence showing that rules of geographical variation in response to variation in the local environment can also apply to morphological changes through time in response to climate change. These rules hold at various time scales| ranging from contemporary to geological time scales. Patterns of body size variation in response to climate change at the individual species level may also be detected at the community level. The patterns underlying ecotypic variation are complex and highly context-dependent| reducing the 'predictive-power' of ecogeographical rules. This is especially true when considering the increasing impact of human activities on the environment. Nonetheless| ecogeographical rules may help interpret the likely influences of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems. Global climate change has already influenced the body size of several contemporary species| and will likely have an even greater impact on animal communities in the future. For this reason| we highlight and emphasise the importance of museum specimens and the continued need for documenting the earth's biological diversity. 7556,2006,2,4,Ectoparasites of northern fulmars Fulmarus glacialis (Procellariiformes : Procellariidae) from the Canadian Arctic,We studied the prevalence and intensity of infestation of ectoparasites on northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis L.) from a breeding colony in Arctic Canada in June-August 2003. No fleas or ticks were found on any fulmars| but three species of chewing lice (Phthiraptera) were recorded: Ischnocera: Perineus nigrolimbatus (Giebel 1874)| Ischnocera: Saemundssonia occidentalis (Kellogg 1896)| and Amblycera: Ancistrona vagelli (Fabricius 1787). Non-breeding birds had a higher prevalence of lice than breeding birds| and prevalence varied markedly among louse species. Our study is an important baseline for the occurrence of ectoparasites on northern fulmars in the high Arctic| a region undergoing extensive environmental change due to global warming| and an area where parasites are expected to extend ranges or increase in prevalence under changing annual temperature regimes. 7314,2006,2,4,Effect of browse on post-ingestive energy loss in an Arctic ruminant: implications for muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) in relation to vegetation change,Shrubs are predicted to dominate tundra with warmer temperatures at northern latitudes. We tested the null hypothesis that addition of browse to a graminoid diet would not alter post-ingestive energy loss in muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus (Zimmermann| 1780)). Energy losses over 8 h following feeding were used to test our hypothesis. Willows (Salix alaxensis (Anderss.) Coville| Salix plan folia ssp. pulchra (Cham.) Argus) and birch (Betula nana L.) (twigs in winter| leaves in summer) were separately mixed at graded levels (0%| 20%| 40%| 60%| and 80%) with chopped hay (Bromus inermis Leyss.) and fed as single meals to muskoxen. Meals containing 2 60% browse were often partially or completely rejected. Meals containing 20%-60% woody or leafy S. alaxensis or S. p. pulchra resulted in higher energy expenditure than meals of 100% hay. Meals containing 20%-60% woody B. nana tended to decrease energy expenditure relative to 100% hay| while 20%-60% leafy B. nana was similar to 100% hay. We conclude there is an energy cost associated with consuming browse. This cost varies by browse species and type. Since muskoxen tolerated LIP to 40% browse in the diet| this cost may be within their ecological tolerance. This tolerance has important implications under global warming scenarios. 7264,2006,3,4,Effect of CaO addition on ignition behavior in molten AZ31 and AZ91D magnesium alloys,Mg alloys have been widely used in automobile and electronic industries because of high specific strength| good castability| etc. However| molten Mg alloys will burn rapidly in air if not protected. To solve this problem| the molten metal should be protected from oxidation by blanketing the surface with flux or protective gases. SF6 gas is widely used for Mg alloys as a cover gas and has proved to be a successful inhibitor. However| the use of SF6 gas is limited because of its high cost and its significant impact on non-global warming potential. Therefore| SF6 gas is being replaced by alternative protection gases. Recent studies show that there has been another attempt by adding CaO into Mg alloys. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of CaO on the minimum amount of protective gas| which is necessary not to make ignition in the molten AZ31 and AZ91 Mg alloys. 7579,2006,4,3,Effect of carbon isotopic variations on measured CO2 abundances in reference gas mixtures,[1] Changes in the Earth's climate caused by global warming are a looming problem that poses serious challenges not only for our generation but for future generations. An accurate determination of CO2 gas plays a critical role in this field of research. The measurement of greenhouse gases is pivotal to understanding the changes in Earth's climate and needs to be carried out with a high degree of accuracy. Precision measurements on a 0.1 mu mol/mol scale may provide research data for precisely monitoring the continuing changes that the planet is undergoing. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recommended that carbon dioxide concentrations in air can be measured by comparing these with national reference gases using a nondispersive infrared (NDIR) analyzer to standardize international data. The CO2 molecules absorb the distinctive resonant frequencies in IR spectrometers. The NDIR analyzers usually use narrow band path filter to determine (CO2)-C-12 in all carbon dioxide molecules| which can possibly ignore the measurement of (CO2)-C-13 partially or totally. However| if the carbon isotopic abundances of CO2 samples deviate from those in standard CO2 gas| the NDIR measurement will not be exact. For accurate measurements| producers of reference gas mixtures either must use gas with natural isotopic abundances| or report the isotopic abundances of CO2. In order to document shifts based on isotopic variability| we prepared artificial air as CO2 reference gas mixtures gravimetrically with CO2 having different carbon isotopic signatures to study the resulting isotopic variations. We used different delta C-13 values of two CO2 source gases| A and B| corresponding to - 41.97 parts per thousand and - 14.88 parts per thousand| respectively| which were measured using an isotope ratio mass spectrometer. One set of reference gas mixtures (A1 to A5) was prepared from the CO2 source of delta C-13 = - 41.97 parts per thousand| and the other set of reference gas mixtures (B1| B2) was prepared from that of delta C-13 = - 14.88 parts per thousand. The CO2 abundances of the two sets of mixtures were compared by using NDIR. The reproducibility test for the set A showed that the data are consistent within uncertainty ( calibration line was obtained by the best secondary polynomial least squares fit). The uncertainty of CO2 concentration in the reference gas mixtures are 0.06 mu mol/mol with a 95% confidence level. The reproducibility of the NDIR measurement is 0.012 mu mol/mol ( standard deviation). The difference between the set A ( A1 to A5) and set B ( B1| B2) was found to be 0.17 +/- 0.01 mu mol/mol| which is in excellent agreement with the theoretically predicted value of 0.17 mu mol/mol. 7246,2006,2,4,Effect of climate and CO(2) changes on the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the past two decades,Study of the effect of current climate changes on vegetation growth| and their spatial patterns improves our understanding of the interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climatic systems. This paper explores the spatial patterns of vegetation growth responding to climate variability over Northern Hemisphere (> 25 degrees N) from 1980 to 2000 using a mechanistic terrestrial carbon model. The results indicate that changes in climate and atmospheric CO(2) likely function as dominant controllers for the greening trend during the study period. At the continental scale| atmospheric CO(2)| temperature| and precipitation account for 49%| 31%| and 13% of the increase in growing season LAI| respectively| but their relative role is not constant across the study area. The increase in vegetation activity in most of Siberia is associated with warming| while that in central North America is primarily explained by the precipitation change. The model simulation also suggests that the regression slope of LAI to temperature increases with soil moisture| but decreases with temperature. This implies that the contribution of rising temperature to the current enhanced greening trend will weaken or even disappear under continued global warming. We also find that the effects of both vegetation precipitation use efficiency and atmospheric CO(2) fertilization on the greening trend increase as soil moisture becomes limiting. 7305,2006,3,3,Effect of Ni+2-substituted Fe2TiO5 on the H-2-reduction and CO2 catalytic decomposition reactions at 500 degrees C,CO2 is a major component of the greenhouse gases| which causes the global warming. To reduce CO2 gas| high activity nanosized Ni+2 substituted Fe2TiO5 samples were synthesized by conventional ceramic method. The effect of the composition of the synthesized ferrite on the H-2-reduction and CO2-catalytic decomposition was investigated. Fe2TiO5 (iron titanate) phase that has a nanocrystallite size of similar to 80 nm is formed as a result of heating Fe2O3 and TiO2 while the addition of NiO leads to the formation of new phases (similar to 80 nm) NiTiO3 and NiFe2O4| but the mixed solid of NiO and Fe2O3 results in the formation of NiFe2O4 only. Samples with Ni+2=0 shows the lowest reduction extent (20%); as the extent of Ni+2 increases| the extent of reduction increases. The increase in the reduction percent is attributed to the presence of NiTiO3 and NiFe2O4 phases| which are more reducible phases than Fe2TiO5. The CO2 decomposition reactions were monitored by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) experiments. The oxidation of the H-2-reduced Ni+2 substituted Fe2TiO5 at 500 degrees C was investigated. As Ni+2 increases| the rate of reoxidation increases. Samples with the highest reduction extents gave the highest reoxidation extent| which is attributed to the highly porous nature and deficiency in oxygen due to the presence of metallic Fe| Ni and/or FeNi alloy. X-ray diffraction (XRD) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) of oxidized samples show also the presence of carbon in the sample containing Ni+2 > 0| which appears in the form of nanotubes (25 nm). 7516,2006,2,4,Effect of the rate of temperature increase of the dynamic method on the heat tolerance of fishes,Heat tolerance is commonly determined by exposing organisms to increasing temperatures until they show symptoms of thermal stress or death. Here we carried Out an experiment on a blenny species (Acantemblemaria hancocki; Pisces: Chaenopsidae) and reviewed the literature to evaluate the extent to which variations in the rate at which temperature is increased in experimental trials affects thermal tolerance of fishes. For the blenny species| we found that thermal tolerance decreases significantly from an intermediate heating rate of similar to 1 degrees C/h towards quicker and slower heating rates. In the literature we found very few comparisons of thermal tolerance among heating rates (i.e. eight fish species) and although Such comparisons were done over narrow ranges of heating rates| overall they appear to follow the pattern described for the blenny species. We discuss a variety of factors including variations in the levels of acclimation| energy use and body quality among heating rates as the causes for this pattern. However| available data are still limited and further research will be necessary to determine the generality and causes of the pattern we found here. Nevertheless| our results indicate the need for caution in the extrapolation of thermal tolerance data when assessing the tolerance of organisms to environmental phenomena that vary in their rates of warming. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1701,2006,2,3,Effects of aphid herbivory on biomass and leaf-level physiology of Solanum dulcamara under elevated temperature and CO2,Forecasted increases in atmospheric CO2 and global mean temperature are likely to influence insect-plant interactions. Plant traits important to insect herbivores| such as nitrogen content| may be directly affected by elevated CO2 and temperature| while insect herbivores are likely to be directly affected only by temperature. This study investigates changes in the effects of herbivory by the aphid Macrosiphum euphorbiae (Homoptera: Aphididae) on the C-3 perennial Solanum dulcamara under two conditions of atmospheric CO2 concentration (350/750ppm) and three temperature treatments (20/15| 23/18| 26/21 degrees C; day/night temperatures). Plants were grown in glass-topped chambers and initially infested with three apterous| adult aphids. Aphid population size| leaf photosynthetic capacity| carbon to nitrogen (C:N) ratio| specific leaf area| plant height| and total plant biomass were measured after 3 weeks of infestation. Aphid herbivory reduced photosynthetic capacity under all conditions| and resulted in smaller leaf C:N ratios. Aphid populations did not change significantly under elevated CO2| but tended to increase slightly. Average aphid weight decreased at high temperatures. Plant height and biomass were not significantly affected by the CO2 treatment| but growth rates before infestation were enhanced by elevated CO2. These results indicate that the combined effects of both elevated CO2 and temperature may exacerbate aphid damage to certain plants| particularly to plants which respond weakly to increases in atmospheric CO2. Modifications of plant physiology under altered CO2 and temperature do not impair| and may slightly enhance aphid population growth. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7603,2006,3,2,Effects of EcoDrive using "DriveManager",Environmental considerations are now among the worldwide topics aimed at the prevention of global warming. Since automobiles exert an important effect on global warming due to the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2)| measures for promoting "EcoDrive" and "safe driving" are expected to gain more importance in the future. This paper is intended to introduce the fuel consumption and drive safety improvement effects of EcoDrive| which are further explained by surveys on the introduction of the EcoDrive diagnosis system. It also serves to introduce the EcoDrive diagnosis system "DriveManager." 1676,2006,2,4,Effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide on biomass and carbon accumulation in a model regenerating longleaf pine community,Plant species vary in response to atmospheric CO2 concentration due to differences in physiology| morphology| phenology| and symbiotic relationships. These differences make it very difficult to predict how plant communities will respond to elevated CO2. Such information is critical to furthering our understanding of community and ecosystem responses to global climate change. To determine how a simple plant community might respond to elevated CO2| a model regenerating longleaf pine community composed of five species was exposed to two CO2 regimes (ambient| 365 mu mol mol(-1) and elevated| 720 mu mol mol(-1)) for 3 yr. Total above- and belowground biomass was 70 and 49% greater| respectively| in CO2-enriched plots. Carbon (C) content followed a response pattern similar to biomass| resulting in a significant increase of 13.8 Mg C ha(-1) under elevated CO2. Responses of individual species| however| varied. Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) was primarily responsible for the positive response to CO2 enrichment. Wiregrass (Aristida stricta Michx.)| rattlebox (Crotalaria rotundifolia Walt. Ex Gruel.)| and butterfly weed (Asclepias tuberosa L.) exhibited negative above- and belowground biomass responses to elevated CO2| while sand post oak (Quercus margaretta Ashe) did not differ significantly between CO2 treatments. As with pine| C content followed patterns similar to biomass. Elevated CO2 resulted in alterations in community structure. Longleaf pine comprised 88% of total biomass in CO2-enriched plots| but only 76% in ambient plots. In contrast| wire-grass| rattlebox| and butterfly weed comprised 19% in ambient CO2 plots| but only 8% under high CO2. Therefore| while longleaf pine may perform well in a high CO2 world| other members of this community may not compete as well| which could alter community function. Effects of elevated CO2 on plant communities are complex| dynamic| and difficult to predict| clearly demonstrating the need for more research in this important area of global change science. 1666,2006,2,3,Effects of environmental hypercapnia on animal physiology: A C-13 NMR study of protein synthesis rates in the marine invertebrate Sipunculus nudus,Global climate change is associated with a progressive rise in ocean CO2 concentrations (hypercapnia) and| consequently| a drop in seawater pH. However| a comprehensive picture of the physiological; mechanisms affected by chronic CO2 stress in marine biota is still lacking. Here we present an analysis of protein biosynthesis rates in isolated muscle of the marine invertebrate Sipunculus nudus| a sediment dwelling worm living at various water depths. We followed the incorporation of 13 C-labelled phenylalanine into muscular protein via high-resolution NMR spectroscopy. Protein synthesis decreased by about 60% at a medium pH of 6.70 and a consequently lowered intracellular pH (pHi). The decrease in protein synthesis rates is much stronger than the concomitant suppression of protein degradation (60% versus 10-15%) possibly posing a threat to the cellular homeostasis of structural as well as functional proteins. Considering the progressive rise in ocean CO2 concentrations| permanent disturbances of cellular protein turnover might seriously affect growth and reproductive performance in many marine organisms with as yet unexplored impacts on species density and composition in marine ecosystems. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 7417,2006,2,4,Effects of pharmaceutical products and municipal wastewaters on temperature-dependent mitochondrial electron transport activity in Elliptio complanata mussels,The advent of global warming has given rise to the issue on how temperature impacts the susceptibility of ectothermic organisms to pollution. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of pharmaceutical products and domestic wastewaters on temperature-dependent mitochondrial electron transport activity in the freshwater mussel Elliptio complanata. Mitochondria from mussels were freshly prepared and exposed to increasing concentrations of various pharmaceutical products known to be found in municipal effluents for 30 min at 4| 12 and 20 degrees C. Electron transport activity as well as lipid peroxidation and DNA strand breaks were determined in the mitochondria. Next| mussels were placed in the aeration lagoons of two municipal wastewater treatment plants for 30 days. Mitochondrial electron transport (MET)| temperature-dependent MET (METT) and lipid peroxidation in gonad were then determined. The results show that all products were able to increase MET activity| but at two different ranges of threshold concentration. Certain pharmaceutical products (i.e.| ibuprofen| cotinine| fluoxetine| coprostanol and trimethoprim) increased METT at a lower threshold concentration than observed at 20 degrees C. Products of lesser potency in reducing lipid peroxidation were those that produced more DNA strand breaks in mitochondria.| Both MET and METT were significantly increased in mussels exposed to aeration lagoon effluents. Lipid peroxidation was also increased in the gonad and was! significantly correlated with MET and METT activities. The data indicate that pharmaceutical products and municipal effluents increase respiration rates in isolated mitochondria| such that interaction with temperature could enhance the susceptibility of mitochondrial energy production and oxidative stress in environments contaminated by domestic wastewater. Crown Copyright (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 7557,2006,2,4,Effects of plant species diversity and composition on nitrogen cycling and the trace gas balance of soils,Experiments addressing the role of plant species diversity for ecosystem functioning have recently proliferated. Most studies have focused on plant biomass responses. However| microbial processes involved in the production of N(2)O and the oxidation of atmospheric CH(4) could potentially be affected via effects on N cycling| on soil diffusive properties (due to changes in water relations and root architecture) and by more direct interactions of plants with soil microbes. We studied ecosystem-level CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes in experimental communities assembled from two pasture soils and from combinations of 1| 3| 6| 8 or 9 species typical for these pastures. The soils contrasted with respect to texture and fertility. N(2)O emissions decreased with diversity and increased in the presence of legumes. Soils were sinks for CH(4) at all times; legume monocultures were a smaller sink for atmospheric CH(4) than non-legume monocultures| but no effect of species richness per se was detected. However| both the exchange of CH(4) and N(2)O strongly depended on plant community composition| and on the interaction of composition with soil type| indicating that the functional role of species and their interactions differed between soils. N(2)O fluxes were mainly driven by effects on soil nitrate and on nitrification while soil moisture had less of an effect. Soil microbial C and N and N mineralisation rates were not altered. The driver of the interactive soil typexplant community composition-effects was less clear. Because soil methanotrophs may take longer to respond to alterations of N cycling than the 1/2 year treatment in this study| we also tested species richness-effects in two separate 5-year field studies| but results were ambiguous| indicating complex interactions with soil disturbance. In conclusion| our study demonstrates that plant community composition can affect the soil trace gas balance| whereas plant species richness per se was less important; it also indicates a potential link between the botanical composition of plant communities and global warming. 1709,2006,2,4,Effects of river discharge| temperature| and future climates on energetics and mortality of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon,We evaluated the effects of past and future trends in temperature and discharge in the Fraser River on the migratory performance of the early Stuart population of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka. Fish of lower condition exhibited disproportionately higher mortality during the spawning run| elucidating a critical link between energetic condition and a fish's ability to reach the spawning grounds. We simulated spawning migrations by accounting for energetic demands for an average individual in the population from the time of entry into the Fraser River estuary to arrival on the spawning grounds (about 1|200 km upstream) and estimated energy expenditures for the average migrant during 1950-2001. The model output indicates relatively high interannual variability in migration energy use and a marked increase in energy demands in recent years related to unusually high discharges (e.g.| 1997) and warmer than average water temperature (e.g.| 1998). We examined how global climate change might effect discharge| water temperature| and the energy used by sockeye salmon during their spawning migration. Expected future reductions in peak flows during freshets markedly reduced transit time to the spawning ground| representing a substantial energy savings that compensated for the effect of the increased metabolic rate resulting from exposure to warmer river temperatures. We suggest that such watershed-scale compensatory mechanisms may be critical to the long-term sustainability of Pacific salmon| given expected changes in climate. However| such compensation will probably only be applicable to some stocks and may be limited under extremely high temperatures where nonenergetic factors such as disease and stress may play a more dominant role in defining mortality. Our results further indicate that a long-term decline in the mean mass of adult sockeye salmon completing their marine residency could erode their migratory fitness during the river migration and hence jeopardize the sustainability of sockeye salmon and the fishery that targets them. 1690,2006,2,4,Effects of warming conditions in eastern North American forests on red-backed salamander morphology,Several studies have reported climate-associated changes in phenotypicalty plastic traits of amphibians| yet it remains unknown whether amphibians can manifest an evolutionary response to global climate change at the rate and magnitude that it is occurring. To assess this issue| we examined temporal change in the morphology of the red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus)| a small| abundant woodland salamander distributed widely in eastern North America with two distinct morphotypes: striped individuals associated with cooler microclimates and unstriped individuals associated with warmer microclimates. We compiled morph| frequencies for 50|960 individual salamanders from 558 sites as recorded in the published literature and in unpublished field notes of herpetologists between 1908 and 2004. We observed that striping probability increased with increasing latitude| longitude| and elevation and decreased (from 80% to 74% range wide) with time. The combined forces of regional climate warming and| particularly| forest disturbance have evidently been sufficient to cause morphological evolution in this amphibian over the last century. 7460,2006,2,2,Effiect of climate change on runoff of a glacierized Himalayan basin,The continuous increase in the emission of greenhouse gases has resulted in global warming| and substantial changes in the global climate are expected by the end of the current century. The reductions in mass| volume| area and length of glaciers on the global scale are considered as clear signals of a warmer climate. The increased rate of melting under a warmer climate has resulted in the retreating of glaciers. On the long-term scale| greater melting of glaciers during the coming years could lead to the depletion of available water resources and influence water flows in rivers. It is also very likely that such changes have occurred in Himalayan glaciers| but might have gone unnoticed or not studied in detail. The water resources of the Himalayan region may also be highly vulnerable to such climate changes| because more than 50% of the water resources of India are located in the various tributaries of the Ganges| Indus and the Brahmaputra river system| which are highly dependent on snow and glacier runoff. In the present study| the snowmelt model SNOWMOD has been used to simulate the melt runoff from a highly glacierized small basin for the summer season. The model simulated the distribution and volume of runoff with reasonably good accuracy. Based on a 2-year simulation| it is found that| on average| the contributions of glacier melt and rainfall in the total runoff are 87% and 13% respectively. The impact of climate change on the monthly distribution of runoff and total summer runoff has been studied with respect to plausible scenarios of temperature and rainfall| both individually and in combined scenarios. The analysis included six temperature scenarios ranging between 0.5 and 3 degrees C| and four rainfall scenarios (-10%| -5%| 5%| 10%). The combined scenarios were generated using temperature and rainfall scenarios. The combined scenarios represented a combination of warmer and drier and a combination of warmer and wetter conditions in the study area. The results indicate that| for the study basin| runoff increased linearly with increase in temperature and rainfall. For a temperature rise of 2 degrees C| the increase in summer streamflow is computed to be about 28%. Changes in rainfall by +/- 10% resulted in corresponding changes in streamflow by +/- 3.5%. For the range of climatic scenarios considered| the changes in runoff are more sensitive to changes in temperature| compared with rainfall| which is likely due to the major contribution of melt water in runoff. Such studies are needed for proper assessment of available water resources under a changing climate in the Himalayan region. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 7592,2006,3,4,Electron interaction cross sections for CF(3)I| C(2)F(4)| and CF(x) (x=1-3) radicals,The supply of absolute electron-impact cross sections for molecular targets and radicals is extremely important for developing plasma reactors and testing different types of etching gases. Current demand for such models is high as the industry aims to replace traditional plasma processing gases with less polluting species. New theoretical electron impact cross sections at typical etching plasma energies (sub 10 eV) are presented for the CF(x) (x=1-3) active radical species in a form suitable for plasma modeling. The available experimental and theoretical data are summarized for two potential feed gases| CF(3)I and C(2)F(4). This data cover recommended cross sections for electron scattering (total| excitation| momentum transfer| and elastic integral)| electron impact dissociation| and dissociative electron attachment| wherever possible. Numerical values are given as tables in the paper and are also placed in the electronic archive. (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics. 1712,2006,4,4,Element interactions limit soil carbon storage,Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 are thought to increase C sinks in terrestrial ecosystems. The potential of these sinks to mitigate CO2 emissions| however| may be constrained by nutrients. By using metaanalysis| we found that elevated CO2 only causes accumulation of soil C when N is added at rates well above typical atmospheric N inputs. Similarly| elevated CO2 only enhances N-2 fixation| the major natural process providing soil N input| when other nutrients (e.g.| phosphorus| molybdenum| and potassium) are added. Hence| soil C sequestration under elevated CO2 is constrained both directly by IN availability and indirectly by nutrients needed to support N2 fixation. 7267,2006,2,4,Elevation and connectivity define genetic refugia for mountain sheep as climate warms,Global warming is predicted to affect the evolutionary potential of natural populations. We assessed genetic diversity of 25 populations of desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) in southeastern California| where temperatures have increased and precipitation has decreased during the 20th century. Populations in low-elevation habitats had lower genetic diversity| presumably reflecting more fluctuations in population sizes and founder effects. Higher-elevation habitats acted as reservoirs of genetic diversity. However| genetic diversity was also affected by population connectivity| which has been disrupted by human development. Restoring population connectivity may be necessary to buffer the effects of climate change on this desert-adapted ungulate. 7309,2006,3,2,Emission mitigation of CO2 in steel industry: Current status and future scenarios,The sustainable development against global warming is a challenge faced by societies at global level. For steel industry| the pressure of reducing CO| emission is likely to last many years. During the past decades| the CO2 emission per ton steel has been reduced mainly due to the improvement of energy efficiency. Entering the 21st century| the steel manufacturing route must have three functions| namely| production of high performance steel products| conversion of energy| and treatment of waste. In the near future| it is expected that existing BF-BOF and EAF routes will be improved| in order to produce high performance steels| increase the use of scrap| and integrate steel industry with other industries for mitigating CO2 emission. In the long term| using carbon-free energy| reducing agents| and storing CO2 securely or converting CO2 into a harmless substance can be presumed for tremendous reduction in CO2 emission. 7580,2006,4,4,Emission of methane and carbon dioxide and earthworm survival during composting of pharmaceutical sludge and spent mycelia,Emissions of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO|) from spent mycelia of the mold Penicilium notatum and sludge from the effluent treatment facility (ETPS) of a pharmaceutical industry were estimated twice during a two-week composting before vermicomposting. These wastes are dumped in landfills or sometimes used in agricultural fields and no reports are available on their greenhouse gas producing potentials. The solid wastes contained appreciable organic carbon and nitrogen while very high Fe| Mn and Zn were found in ETPS only. Pure wastes did not support germination of Vigna radiata L. while mixing soil with ETPS and spent mycelia at the ratios of 12:1 and 14:1 led to 80% and 50% germination| respectively. The wastes were mixed with cowdung at the ratios of 1:1| 1:3 and 3:1 for composting. Carbon dioxide emissions were always significantly higher than CH4 emissions from all the treatments due to prevalence of aerobic condition during composting. From some treatments| CH4 emissions increased with time| indicating increasing activity of anaerobic bacteria in the waste mixtures. Methane emissions ranged from 21.6 to 231.7 mu g m(-2) day(-1) while CO2 emissions were greater than thousand times at 39.8-894.8 mg m(-2) day(-1). The amount of C emitted as CH4-C and CO2-C from ranged from 0.007% to 0.081% of total C composted. Cowdung emitted highest CH4 followed by spent mycelia and ETPS while ETPS emitted more CO2 than spent mycelia but lesser than cowdung. Global warming potential of emitted CH4 was found to be in the range of 10.6-27.7 mg-CO2-equivalent on a 20-year time horizon. The results suggest that pharmaceutical wastes can be an important source of CH4 and CO2 during composting or any other stockpiling under suitable moisture conditions. The waste mixtures were found not suitable for vermicomposting after two weeks composting and earthworms did not survive long in the mixtures. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7298,2006,4,4,Emission of the greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane from constructed wetlands in Europe,The potential atmospheric impact of constructed wetlands (CWs) should be examined as there is a worldwide increase in the development of these systems. Fluxes of N(2)O| CH(4)| and CO(2) have been measured from CWs in Estonia| Finland| Norway| and Poland during winter and summer in horizontal and vertical subsurface flow (HSSF and VSSF)| free surface water (FSW)| and overland and groundwater flow (OGF) wetlands. The fluxes of N(2)O-N| CH(4)-C| and CO(2)-C ranged from -2.1 to 1000| -32 to 38000| and -840 to 93000 mg m(-2) d(-1)| respectively. Emissions of N(2)O and CH(4) were significantly higher during summer than during winter. The VSSF wetlands had the highest fluxes of N(2)O during both summer and winter. Methane emissions were highest from the FSW wetlands during wintertime. In the HSSF wetlands| the emissions of N(2)O and CH(4) were in general highest in the inlet section. The vegetated ponds in the FSW wetlands released more N(2)O than the nonvegetated ponds. The global warming potential (GWP)| summarizing the mean N(2)O and CH(4) emissions| ranged from 5700 to 26000 and 830 to 5100 mg CO(2) equivalents m(-2) d(-1) for the four CW types in summer and winter| respectively. The wintertime GWP was 8.5 to 89.5% of the corresponding summertime GWP| which highlights the importance of the cold season in the annual greenhouse gas release from north temperate and boreal CWs. However| due to their generally small area North European CWs were suggested to represent only a minor source for atmospheric N(2)O and CH(4). 7512,2006,2,3,Emissions and spatial variability of N(2)O| N(2) and nitrous oxide mole fraction at the field scale| revealed with (15)N isotopic techniques,The accurate measurement of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and dinitrogen (N(2)) during the denitrification process in soils is a challenge which will help to estimate the contribution of soil N(2)O emissions to global warming. Oxygen concentration| nitrate concentration and carbon availability are generally the main factors that control soil denitrification rate and the amount of N(2)O or N(2) emitted. The aim of this paper is to present a database of the N(2)O mole fraction measured at the field scale| and to test hypotheses concerning its regulation. A (15)N-nitrate tracer solution was added to 36 undisturbed soil cores on a 20 m x 20 m cultivated field plot. Fluxes of CO(2)| N(2)O and N(2)| from the soil surface were monitored for 24 h. Soil moisture| bulk density| carbon| nitrogen and mineral nitrogen concentration were also measured to investigate possible spatial relationships between their variations and those of N20| N2 and nitrous oxide mole fraction. Under high water content| nitrous oxide and N2 emissions were highly variable with variation coefficients of 70-140%. N(2)O emission rates were about twice as high as those of N2| with a total denitrification rate ranging from 269 to 3843 g N ha(-1) d(-1). After 24 h of incubation| the values of nitrous oxide mole fraction ranged from 0.15 to 0.94 and no significant decline during incubation time was observed. Spatial variability of N(2)O| N(2) and nitrous oxide mole fraction was high and no spatial dependence was observed at the scale of the experimental plot. Only tenuous relationships between gaseous nitrogen emissions and soil properties (mainly nitrate concentration and moisture content) were found. Meanwhile| a positive correlation was observed between N(2) and CO(2) emissions. This result supports the hypothesis that an increase in soil available organic carbon leads to N(2) emissions as the end product of denitrification. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7307,2006,2,4,Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States,The Random Forests multiple-regression tree was used to model climate profiles of 25 biotic communities of the western United States and nine of their constituent species. Analyses of the communities were based on a gridded sample of ca. 140|000 points| while those for the species used presence-absence data from ca. 120|000 locations. Independent variables included 35 simple expressions of temperature and precipitation and their interactions. Classification errors for community models averaged 19%| but the errors were reduced by half when adjusted for misalignment between geographic data sets. Errors of omission for species-specific models approached 0| while errors of commission were less than 9%. Mapped climate profiles of the species were in solid agreement with range maps. Climate variables of most importance for segregating the communities were those that generally differentiate maritime| continental| and monsoonal climates| while those of importance for predicting the occurrence of species varied among species but consistently implicated the periodicity of precipitation and temperature-precipitation interactions. Projections showed that unmitigated global warming should increase the abundance primarily of the montane forest and grassland community profiles at the expense largely of those of the subalpine| alpine| and tundra communities but also that of the arid woodlands. However| the climate of 47% of the future landscape may be extramural to contemporary community profiles. Effects projected on the spatial distribution of species-specific profiles were varied| but shifts in space and attitude would be extensive. Species-specific projections were not necessarily consistent with those of their communities. 7712,2006,2,4,Empirical mode decomposition analysis of climate changes with special reference to rainfall data,We have used empirical mode decomposition ( EMD) method| which is especially well fitted for analyzing time-series data representing nonstationary and nonlinear processes. This method could decompose any time-varying data into a finite set of functions called "intrinsic mode functions" ( IMFs). The EMD analysis successively extracts the IMFs with the highest local temporal frequencies in a recursive way. The extracted IMFs represent a set of successive low-pass spatial filters based entirely on the properties exhibited by the data. The IMFs are mutually orthogonal and more effective in isolating physical processes of various time scales. The results showed that most of the IMFs have normal distribution. Therefore| the energy density distribution of IMF samples satisfies chi(2)-distribution which is statistically significant. This study suggested that the recent global warming along with decadal climate variability contributes not only to the more extreme warm events| but also to more frequent| long lasting drought and flood. 7367,2006,3,3,Energy and environmental policies relating to hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) emissions mitigation and energy conservation in Taiwan,Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are becoming significant energy and environmental issues relating to energy consumption in Taiwan. The nation| although not a party to the Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol| has diligently strived to mitigate the emissions and phase out use of the responsible materials. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)| which are now mostly used in refrigeration and air conditioning systems| are the main GHGs associated with strong global warming potential. The objective of this paper is to present an overview of the industrial/commercial uses of HFCs in Taiwan. Because of their high impacts on climate change| the description is then centered on estimating the potential emissions of HFCs according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method and the governmental organizations responses to the United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The regulatory systems relating to HFCs mitigation and energy conservation and energy policies and promotion measures for providing technological assistances and financial incentives in the energy management| resource recovery and HFCs reduction/recycling technologies are also addressed in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1758,2006,3,2,Energy prices and turning points: The relationship between income and energy use/carbon emissions,Models used to test whether an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) can be used to describe the relationship between GDP and energy use and/or carbon emissions may be biased by the omission of energy prices. Here we include real energy prices and fuel shares in models that describe energy use and carbon emissions. We test if these models show a turning point in OECD countries. Results indicate that including energy prices eliminates statistical support for a turning point and suggest that the relationship between income and both energy use and carbon emissions is represented most accurately by diminishing returns. These results imply that economic growth per se will not reduce energy use or emissions that cause global climate change. 7517,2006,3,3,Energy| environment| and sustainable industry in the Appalachian Mountains| United States,In July 1979| the world's largest wind turbine was dedicated on Howard's Knob| a mountain overlooking Boone| North Carolina. NASA and the Department of Energy's selection of this site confirmed the wind resource| and the windmill's striking presence above town sparked a great deal of imagination. But a newly elected President Reagan removed solar panels from the White House| and along with them went public investment in renewable energy. Nearly 3 decades later the converging threats of peak oil and global warming are compelling reasons to reconsider the wind in Appalachia. Howard's Knob is a poignant reminder of a comparative advantage that could spawn vital new industries and sustainable livelihoods. Appalachia's coal and timber helped to underwrite America's 20th century growth| but the process left a legacy of poverty and environmental destruction| Most recently| free trade agreements have sparked a wave of unemployment prompting citizens| business| and local government to look for a better way forward. 1614,2006,4,4,Enhancement of lidar backscatters signal-to-noise ratio using empirical mode decomposition method,Lidar is being widely used to monitor meteorological parameters and atmospheric constituents. Applications include meteorology| environmental pollution| atmospheric dynamics and global climate change. Signal processing for lidar applications involve highly nonlinear models and consequently nonlinear filtering. In this paper| we applied a new method| empirical mode decomposition to the lidar signal processing. The denoising approach is done by removal of the proper intrinsic mode functions. The data from the simulation and measurements are analyzed to evaluate this method comparing with the traditional low-pass filter and the multi-pulse averaging. Results show that it is effective-and superior to the band-pass filter and the averaging method. The denoising method also allows less averaging laser shots which is important for the real-time monitoring and for the low cost laser transmitter. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7340,2006,3,4,Enhancing disassembly and recycling planning using life-cycle analysis,Both the general public and governmental agencies highly prioritize resource optimization (energy and material) and environmental issues such as ozone| acid rain and global warming in the life-cycle context. Disassembly and recycling are also increasingly important in most industrial countries due to the significant increase in the quantity of used products being discarded. Disassembly of used products has been recognized as necessary to make recycling economically viable in current state-of-the-art reprocessing technology. This emerging trend requires incorporating environmental considerations into design strategies. This study presents a graph-based heuristic method for disassembly analysis of end-of-life products| which incorporates the Eco-Design concept. Product components and their assembly relationships from the bill of material BOM are adopted to split the graph into sub-graphs denoting modular sub-assemblies. The life-cycle analysis LCA is then used to analyze disassembly trees| from which a disassembly sequence can be derived. Designers can use the analytical results to evaluate the dis-assemblability and recyclability of products when they are designed. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7494,2006,2,4,Environment scenario: A mega scan from the big bang to the third millenium,According to recent estimate| the age of the Universe is 13.7 billion years following the Big Bang event. The elements were created in the early stage of the Universe and embedded in the solar systems and hence into the planets including our Earth. In the time scale of evolution Man came last of all some 0.0025-0.0030 billion years age under optimum environment or pure air| pure water and pure land as well as forest cover. The history of the progress of human civilisation in terms of science and technology is virtually the history of environmental degradation. Some crucial environmental issues threatening human survival are briefly discussed - Global Warming| Biodiversity| Water Crisis| Human Development. India's Environmental Heritage is also highlighted. 7510,2006,3,4,Environmental assessment of shredder residue management,Metal recycling from automobiles| appliances and scrap steel occurs at dedicated metal shredding operations. Shredder residue (SR) consists of glass| rubber| plastics| fibers| dirt| and fines that remain after ferrous and nonferrous metals have been removed. The over 3 million tonnes of SR generated in the U.S. each year are managed by landfilling. Material recovery or energy recovery alternatives to landfilling can be beneficial because of conservation of non-renewable resources and reduction of waste disposal. In this study| the human health and environmental impacts of landfilling and three recovery options (supplemental fuel and mineral feed for cement manufacturing| hydrolysis to light fuel oil| and material recovery for recycling) were quantified and characterized using a lifecycle assessment (LCA) approach. Comparisons were carried out after characterization of emissions relative to potential impact categories of global warming| freshwater aquatic toxicity| acidification| eutrophication| human toxicity| photochemical oxidant creation| and terrestrial ecotoxicity. SR recovery in cement manufacturing could result in 1 million tonnes of coal conservation each year for the U.S. Compared to landfilling| recovery of the fuel and mineral value of SR in cement manufacturing provides net benefits for all environmental impact characteristics considered primarily due to avoided coal mining and landfilling impacts. As much as 750|000 tonnes of recyclable materials could be recovered from SR. Material recovery system impact results were very sensitive to process energy requirements as well as the assumptions of percent recovery and the specific material types recovered. Hydrolysis of SR could produce 250 million gallons of light fuel oil equivalent per year. The hydrolysis process requires a significant amount of electricity| the impacts of which are somewhat offset by the avoided impacts of producing fuels from crude oil resources. Primarily due to high electricity consumption| both the hydrolysis and material recovery scenarios yielded trade-offs (some net benefits and some net higher impacts) compared to landfilling. The results of this end-of-life impact assessment showed that the supplement for cement manufacturing option was environmentally beneficial to the current practice of landfilling and appears better in comparison to the other management methods studied. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7353,2006,3,3,Environmental impact evaluation of conventional fossil fuel production (oil and natural gas) and enhanced resource recovery with potential CO2 sequestration,Conventional oil and natural gas production were compared with two case studies of enhanced resource recovery along with the potential for CO2 sequestration applications. The first case study is a Norwegian enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project| and the second focuses on enhanced coal-bed methane (ECBM) recovery in Japan. Both cases or systems involved the recovery of CO2 gases from a coal-fired power plant| followed by compression| transportation| and final injection of the greenhouse gas into geological formations as a solution to mitigate global warming. A life-cycle assessment (LCA) method was applied to measure how each system| conventional as well as enhanced recovery methods| impacts the environment. The first set of results presented were the inventory of air emissions (CO| CO2| CH4| SOx| NOx| NH3| Pb| Hg| etc.)| wastewater-containing acids and sulfides| and solid wastes released because of both fossil fuel production and energy usage from the power plant. The impact assessment results because of the accumulated pollutants from all of the systems were calculated for the following set of common impact measures: global warming potential| acidification| human toxicity| eutrophication| wastes| and resources. The final (combined) scores of the entire system were also generated. These final scores| which included the normalization and weighting steps| allowed for overall comparisons for verifying the final benefits or drawbacks of a system. For the proposed EOR project| the greatest two environmental benefits (total impacts prevented) were calculated to be -9.8 x 10(-2) and -9.7 x 10(-2). As for ECBM| the best scores were projected to be -1.0 x 10(-1) followed by -8.70 x 10(-2). 7708,2006,3,2,Environmental impacts and costs of energy,Environmental damage is one of the main justifications for continued efforts to reduce energy consumption and to shift to cleaner sources such as solar energy. In recent years there has been much progress in the analysis of environmental damages| in particular thanks to the Extern-E (External Costs of Energy) Project of the European Commission. This article presents a summary of the methodology and key results for the external costs of the major energy technologies. Even though the uncertainties are large| the results provide substantial evidence that the classical air pollutants (particles| No-x and SOz) from fossil fuels impose significant public health costs| comparable to the cost of global warming from CO2 emissions. The total external costs are relatively low for natural gas (in the range of about 0.5-1 eurocents/kWh for most EU countries)| but much higher for coal and lignite (in the range of about 2-6 eurocents/kWh for most EU countries). By contrast| the external. costs of nuclear| wind| and photovoltaics are very low. The external costs of hydro are extremely variable from site to site| and the ones of biomass depend strongly on the specific technologies used and can be quite large for combustion. 7330,2006,3,4,Environmental performance improvement in residential construction: The impact of products| biofuels| and processes,Understanding the environmental burdens from residential construction is increasingly important as consumers become more aware of the impacts of their purchasing decisions. In 2004| The Consortium for Research on Renewable Industrial Materials (CORRIM) evaluated the life-cycle environmental impacts of building materials used in residential construction. This report builds upon those findings by examining the environmental burdens of each component used to construct wall and floor subassemblies in residential homes. Evaluating components and subassemblies illuminates how the environmental burdens from different products| designs| and processes compare. Summary performance measures were developed for fossil fuel energy requirements| global warming potential| air and water pollution| and solid waste. This study clearly shows that the use of wood-based building materials significantly reduces most environmental burdens. The study also demonstrates the benefits of biofuels| recycling| and pre-cutting to reduce solid waste. This study's significance is enhanced by the detailed insights it provides on how architects and product and process engineers can substantially reduce environmental burdens. 7354,2006,2,4,Eroding blanket peat catchments: Global and local implications of upland organic sediment budgets,Globally| peatlands account for circa 50% of terrestrial carbon storage containing as much carbon as is present in the atmosphere. The uplands of the UK have an extensive cover of blanket peat but much of it is actively eroding. This paper presents a detailed organic sediment budget for a blanket peat catchment in the north Pennines and comparative data from a catchment in the southern Pennines. The catchments have total sediment yields (organic and mineral) of 44 and 267t km(-2) a(-1) and organic sediment yields 31 and 195t km(-2) a(-1)| respectively. They represent two extremes of a spectrum of eroded peat catchments. It is demonstrated that the lower sediment yields in the north Pennines are associated with extensive natural revegetation of the catchment and consequent reductions in slope-channel linkage. Construction of a carbon budget for the north Pennine catchment demonstrates that particulate carbon losses associated with the fluvial suspended sediment load are the largest single carbon loss from the system. The system is currently close to carbon neutral but much higher carbon losses associated with actively eroding systems such as the south Pennine site would make these systems a major carbon source. The possibility that enhanced summer temperatures and winter storminess will accelerate erosion of upland mires means there is a risk that physical degradation of peatlands could become a significant positive feedback on global warming. Mitigation of these potential global effects will depend on local management informed by a clear understanding of peatland sediment dynamics. The sediment budget data here suggest that in gullied peatlands revegetation of gully floors is an effective control on sediment flux so that techniques such as gully blocking are likely to be effective approaches to erosion control. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 7606,2006,4,4,Estimating extreme stream temperatures by the standard deviate method,It is now widely accepted that global climate warming is taking place on the earth. Among many other effects| a rise in air temperatures is expected to increase stream temperatures indefinitely. However| due to evaporative cooling| stream temperatures do not increase linearly with increasing air temperatures indefinitely. Within the anticipated bounds of climate warming| extreme stream temperatures may therefore not rise substantially. With this concept in mind| past extreme temperatures measured at 720 USGS stream gauging stations were analyzed by the standard deviate method. In this method the highest stream temperatures are expressed as the mean temperature of a measured partial maximum stream temperature series plus its standard deviation multiplied by a factor K-E (standard deviate). Various K-E-values were explored; values of K-E larger than 8 were found physically unreasonable. It is concluded that the value of KE should be in the range from 7 to 8. A unit error in estimating KE translates into a typical stream temperature error of about 0.5 degrees C. Using a logistic model for the stream temperature/air temperature relationship| a one degree error in air temperature gives a typical error of 0.16 degrees C in stream temperature. With a projected error in the enveloping standard deviate dK(E)= 1.0 (range 0.5-1.5) and an error in projected high air temperature dT(a) = 2 degrees C (range 0-4 degrees C)| the total projected stream temperature error is estimated as dT(s) = 0.8 degrees C. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7472,2006,3,4,Estimation of global warming potential from upland cropping systems in central Hokkaido| Japan,Seven upland cropping systems in Central Hokkaido| Japan| were investigated during the growing season in 2003 to evaluate the magnitude of N2O emission| CH| uptake and soil carbon sequestration| and their net effect on the global warming potential (GWP). N2O and CH| fluxes were measured from field soils planted with crops and CO2 fluxes were measured from bare soils in attached plots at each site using the closed chamber method. Cumulative N2O emissions ranged from 0.02 g N m(-2) to 0.62 g N m(-2) for different soil types| which accounted for 0.35-4.44% of the applied fertilizer nitrogen. Cumulative CH| uptake rates ranged from -0.08 g C m(-2) to 0 g C m(-2). Soil carbon sequestration| defined as the difference between the net primary production and carbon loss through harvest and soil microbial decomposition| ranged from -410 to -193 g C m(-2)| indicating that the carbon loss from soils could not be compensated by the carbon input through plant photosynthesis. The net GWP from the investigated cropping systems ranged from 749 to 1790 g CO2 equivalents m(-2). CO2 emission contributed to 84-99% of the net GWP and N2O contributed 1-16%. 7529,2006,4,4,Estimation of reaction vessel volume for a fixation furnace in the pyrolysis and dry-fixation system of SF6 gas,To develop a dry recovery process for fluorides including the decomposed gases of SF6 gas| which has a global warming potential (GWP) of 23|900 times that of CO2| the gas-solid reaction properties of HF gas and calcium carbonate in a fixed-bed reaction furnace were investigated. The experimentally determined reaction zone volume including unreacted calcium carbonate in the fixed-bed reaction furnace was in good agreement with the estimated value from the HF breakthrough curve using the fixed-bed reaction model. Further the HF reaction rate with calcium carbonate could be estimated from an approximate rate formula using the unreacted core model with the mass transfer factors of the solid product layer and the boundary layer at the external surface| and each factor was obtained. By estimating roughly the passage time through the reaction zone in the furnace from the obtained reaction rate formula and these factors| the reaction zone volume| which is needed to design the reaction vessel in the fixed-bed reaction furnace| can be estimated safely. 7422,2006,4,4,Estimation of the long-term variability of extreme significant wave height using a time-dependent Peak Over Threshold (POT) model,[ 1] Recent evidence suggests long-term changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme wave climate around the globe. These changes may be attributable to global warming as well as to the natural climate variability. A statistical model to estimate long-term trends in the frequency and intensity of severe storm waves is presented in this paper. The model is based on a time-dependent version of the Peak Over Threshold model and is applied to the Washington NOAA buoy ( 46005) significant wave height data set. The model allows consideration of the annual cycle| trends| and relationship to atmosphere-ocean-related indices. For the particular data set analyzed the inclusion of seasonal variability substantially improves the correlation between the model and the data. Also| significant correlations with the Pacific - North America pattern| as well as long-term trend| are detected. Results show that the model is appropriate for a rigorous analysis of long-term trends and variability of extreme waves and for providing time-dependent quantiles and confidence intervals. 7380,2006,3,4,Estimations of soil organic carbon storage in cropland of China based on DNDC model,Loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) can cause soil degradation| which may not only undermine soil productivity| but may also-affect environmental health. In China| a huge amount of crop residues is regularly removed from the fields| and therefore China's agriculture depends on high levels of chemical fertilizer inputs. This paper aims to estimate the SOC storage in Chinese cropland| identify its changing trends under current cropping systems| and finally put forward some strategies to keep the SOC in balance. A computer simulation model of carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry in agro-ecosystems (DeNitrification and DeComposition or DNDC) was applied to predict SOC dynamics in the upper (0-30 cm) soil layer of agricultural ecosystems at national scale. Data on climate| soil properties| cropping systems| acreage| and management practices at county scale were collected from various sources and integrated into a GIS database to support the model runs. The model results revealed (1) the total SOC storage in croplands in China is about 3968 Tg C; and (2) SOC is lost at a rate of 78.89 Tg C/year. The highest losses of SOC occur in the northeastern provinces. Chinese cropland soils release 186 Tg C as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere| and receive only 68 Tg C from crop residues annually. Considering the potential of global warming| SOC loss in cropland could be a serious contributor. Strategies to reduce the loss of SOC in Chinese cropland are proposed based on DNDC model runs for a number of scenarios under different management practices. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7596,2006,3,3,Ethanol fuels: E10 or E85 - Life cycle perspectives,Goal and Scope. The environmental performance of two ethanol fuel applications (E10 and E85) is compared (E10 fuel: a mixture of 10% ethanol and 90% gasoline by volume| and E85 fuel: a mixture of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline by volume). Methods. Two types Of functional units are considered here: An ethanol production-oriented perspective and a traveling distance-oriented perspective. The ethanol production-oriented functional unit perspective reflects the fact that the ethanol fuel Supply (arable land or quantity of biomass used ill ethanol fuel) is constrained| while the traveling distance-oriented functional unit implies that the ethanol fuel supply is unlimited. Results and Discussion. In the ethanol production-oriented functional unit perspective| the E10 fuel application offers better environmental performance than the E85 fuel application in terms of natural resources used| nonrenewable energy and global warming. However| in the calculations based oil the traveling distance perspective| the E85 fuel application provides less environmental impacts in crude oil consumption| nonrenewable energy and global warming than the E10 fuel application. Conclusions and Outlook. The choice of functional units significantly affects the final results. Thus the functional unit ill a descriptive LCA should reflect as nearly as possible the actual situation associated with a product system. Considering the current situation of constrained ethanol fuel supply| the E10 fuel application offers better environmental performance in natural resources used| nonrenewable energy and global warming unless the fuel economy of all E85 fueled vehicle is close to that of an E10 fueled vehicle. 1639,2006,2,4,European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern,Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular| terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology| the science of natural recurring events| as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus| numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However| published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971-2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing| flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed| whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade(-1) in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species' phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding months (mean advance of spring/summer by 2.5 days degrees C(-1)| delay of leaf colouring and fall by 1.0 day degrees C(-1)). The pattern of observed change in spring efficiently matches measured national warming across 19 European countries (correlation coefficient r=-0.69| P < 0.001). 1606,2006,4,4,Evaluating long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation in Taiwan,This work studies long-term rainfall variations in Taiwan and provides local climate change analyses to global climate change. Around a century of rainfall data from 33 rain-gauges populate the database used herein. Statistical tests| such as cumulative deviations| Mann-Whitney-Pettitt statistics and the Kruskal-Wallis test| were first employed to determine whether annual rainfall series exhibit any regular trend. Analytical results indicate that the annual rainfall has increased in northern Taiwan| declined in central and southern Taiwan| and exhibited no clear tendency in Eastern Taiwan. Almost all of these rainfall series changed significantly around 1960| which date divides historical rainfall series into two sample groups. This change in the seasonal rainfall was further investigated. 7241,2006,4,3,Evaluation of methods for quantifying agricultural emissions of air| water and soil pollutants,Integrated assessments that analyze global warming| acidification| eutrophication and ozone related problems simultaneously| need complete| detailed and consistent emission estimates that consider possible interrelations between different pollutants. We discuss three types of emission estimation methods: emission factor| regression analyses and process-based methods. Selected examples of these are reviewed to illustrate the large variety in methods available. We present an approach for the evaluation of emission estimation methods which follows three steps: (1) Comparison| (2) Scoring and (3) Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach by applying it to a case study for the Czech Republic. Firstly we compare selected methods with respect to characteristics which we consider as requirements to quantify emissions of air| water and soil pollutants in an integrated way. We observe that none of the selected methods fully meet our defined characteristics. Secondly| we score the methods with respect to three types of criteria. This evaluation reveals large differences between the methods. We conclude that the following methods best meet our criteria: the IPCC Guidelines| methods from INITIATOR| and the detailed method of the EMEP/CORINAIR Guidebook. Finally| we perform a Multi-Criteria Analysis to analyze how our conclusions change if one considers certain criteria as more important than others. Based on this analysis we suggest that combining parts of each of the three methods forms a sound basis for a new emission estimation method for quantifying agricultural emissions of air| water and soil pollution simultaneously. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 1611,2006,4,3,Evidence for carbon dioxide and moisture interactions from the leaf cell up to global scales: Perspective on human-caused climate change,It is of utmost interest to further understand the mechanisms behind the potential interactions or synergies between the greenhouse gases (GHG) forcing(s)| particularly as represented by CO2| and water processes and through different climatic scales down to the leaf scale. Toward this goal| the factor separation methodology introduced by Stein and Alpert [Stein U. and Alpert| P. 1993. Factor separation in numerical simulations| J. Atmos. Sci.| 50| 2107-2115.] that allows an explicit separation of atmospheric synergies among different factors| is employed. Three independent experiments carried out recently by the present authors| are reported here| all strongly suggest the existence of a significant CO2-water synergy in all the involved scales. The experiments employed a very wide range of up-to-date atmospheric models that complement the physics currently introduced in most Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for global climate change prediction. Three modeling experiments that go from the small/micro scale (leaf scale and soil moisture) to mesoscale (land-use change and CO2 effects) and to global scale (greenhouse gases and cloudiness) all show that synergies between water and CO2 are essential in predicting carbon assimilation| minimum daily temperature and the global Earth temperature| respectively. The study also highlights the importance of including the physics associated with carbon-water synergy which is mostly unresolved in global climate models suggesting that significant carbon-water interactions are not incorporated or at least well parameterized in current climate models. Hence| there is a need for integrative climate models. As shown in earlier studies| the climate involves physical| chemical and biological processes. To only include a subset of these processes limits the skill of local| regional and global models to simulate the real climate system. In addition| our results provide explicit determination of the direct and the interactive effect of the CO2 response on the terrestrial biosphere response. There is also an implicit scale interactive effect that can be deduced from the multiscale effects discussed in the three examples. Processes at each scale-leaf| regional and global will all synergistically contribute to increase the feedbacks-which can decrease or increase the overall system's uncertainty depending on specific case/setup and needs to be examined in future coupled| multiscale studies. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1667,2006,2,4,Evidence for trends in the Northern Hemisphere water cycle,We have applied a unique water vapor tracing algorithm using observed precipitation and atmospheric analyses for the period 1979-2003 to estimate water budgets and recycling ratio (the fraction of precipitation over a region that originated as evaporation from the same region) over land areas across the globe. Over most mid- and high-latitude areas| a strong annual cycle of recycling ratio exists; low during winter when storm tracks are active| tropospheric circulation strong| and surface evaporation rates low| high during summer when winds are light and evaporation is greater. Trends in recycling ratio have been found over large areas at high-latitudes that are consistent with an expansion into spring of the warm-season regime of water vapor recycling. These trends are consistent with observed vegetation-related changes often attributed to global climate change| and are most evident over northern Europe and North America where the density of meteorological data influencing the atmospheric analyses is high. Less extensive trends are found in other seasons. 7583,2006,3,4,Exchange rates and climate change: An application of fund,As economic and emissions scenarios assume convergence of per capita incomes| they are sensitivity to the exchange rate used for international comparison. Particularly| developing countries are project to grow slower with a purchasing power exchange rate than with a market exchange rate. Different exchange rates may lead to scenarios with very different per capita incomes. However| these scenarios also assume convergence of energy intensities| which at least partly offsets the income effect| so that scenarios with different exchange rates would differ less in greenhouse gas emissions. Differences become smaller still if atmospheric concentrations and global warming is considered. However| differences become larger again if one considers the costs of meeting a certain stabilisation target| as the gap between baseline and target is more sensitive to the exchange rate used than the baseline itself. Differences also grow larger if one looks at climate change impacts| which are determined not just by climate change but also by development. The sensitivity to the exchange rate is purely due to imperfect data| imperfect statistical analysis of data| a crude spatial resolution| and imperfect models. 7401,2006,2,4,Expanded thermal niche for a diving vertebrate: A leatherback turtle diving into near-freezing water,The global distribution of extant reptiles is more limited than that of mammals or birds| with low reptilian species diversity at high latitudes. Central to this limited geographical distribution is the ectothermic nature of reptiles| which means that they generally become torpid at cold temperatures. However| here we report the first detailed telemetry from a leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) diving in cold water at high latitude. An individual equipped with a satellite tag that relayed temperature-depth profiles dived continuously for many weeks into sub-surface waters as cold as 0.4 degrees C. Global warming will likely increase the foraging range of leatherback turtles further into temperate and boreal waters. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7433,2006,3,4,Experience-based and description-based perceptions of long-term risk: Why global warming does not scare us (yet),It should come as no surprise that the governments and citizenries of many countries show little concern about climate change and its consequences. Behavioral decision research over the last 30 years provides a series of lessons about the importance of affect in perceptions of risk and in decisions to take actions that reduce or manage perceived risks. Evidence from a range of domains suggests that worry drives risk management decisions. When people fail to be alarmed about a risk or hazard| they do not take precautions. Recent personal experience strongly influences the evaluation of a risky option. Low-probability events generate less concern than their probability warrants on average| but more concern than they deserve in those rare instances when they do occur. Personal experience with noticeable and serious consequences of global warming is still rare in many regions of the world. When people base their decisions on statistical descriptions about a hazard provided by others| characteristics of the hazard identified as psychological risk dimensions predict differences in alarm or worry across different classes of risk. The time-delayed| abstract| and often statistical nature of the risks of global warming does not evoke strong visceral reactions. These results suggest that we should find ways to evoke visceral reactions towards the risk of global warming| perhaps by simulations of its concrete future consequences for people's home or other regions they visit or value. Increased concern about global warming needs to solicited carefully| however| to prevent a decrease in concern about other relevant risks. The generation of worry or concern about global warming may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for desirable or appropriate protective or mitigating behavior on part of the general public. 7669,2006,2,4,Experiments with duckweed-moth systems suggest that global warming may reduce rather than promote herbivory,1. Wilf & Labandeira (1999)suggested that increased temperatures because of global warming will cause an increase in herbivory by insects. This conclusion was based on the supposed effect of temperature on herbivores but did not consider an effect of temperature on plant growth. 2. We studied the effect of temperature on grazing pressure by the small China-mark moth (Cataclysta lemnata L.) on Lemna minor L. in laboratory experiments. 3. Between temperatures of 15 and 24 degrees C we found a sigmoidal increase in C. lemnata grazing rates| and an approximately linear increase in L. minor growth rates. Therefore| an increase in temperature did not always result in higher grazing pressure by this insect as the regrowth of Lemna changes also. 4. At temperatures below 18.7 degrees C| Lemna benefited more than Cataclysta from an increase in temperature| causing a decrease in grazing pressure. 5. In the context of global warming| we conclude that rising temperatures will not necessarily increase grazing pressure by herbivorous insects. 7710,2006,2,3,Exploring the sensitivity of the Australian climate to regional land-cover-change scenarios under increasing CO(2) concentrations and warmer,The potential role of the impacts of land-cover changes (LCCs) in the Australian climate is investigated within the context of increasing CO(2) concentrations and temperature. Specifically| it is explored if possible scenarios for LCC can moderate or amplify CO(2)-induced changes in climate over Australia. The January climate of Australia is simulated under three different land-cover-change scenarios using a high-resolution regional climate model. The land-cover-change scenarios include a steady-state land cover that is equivalent to current land cover| a low-reforestation scenario that recovers approximately 25% of the trees replaced by grasslands within the last 200 yr| and a high-reforestation scenario that recovers at least 75% of the deforested regions. The model was driven by boundary conditions taken from transitory climate simulations from a general circulation model that included two climate scenarios based on two projected scenarios of CO(2) concentration increase. The results show that reforestation has the potential to reduce the projected increase in Australian temperatures in 2050 and 2100 by as much as 40% and 20%| respectively. This cooling effect| however| is highly localized and occurs only in regions of reforestation. The results therefore hint that the potential of reforestation to moderate the impact of global warming may be significantly limited by the spatial scale of reforestation. In terms of deforestation| results show that any future land clearing can exacerbate the projected warming in certain regions of Australia. Carbon-related variables are also analyzed and results show that changes in net CO(2) flux may be influenced more by soil respiration than by photosynthesis. The results herein encourage studies on the inclusion of land-cover-change scenarios in future climate change projection simulations of the Australian climate.
7396,2006,2,2,Extreme events due to human-induced climate change,A recent assessment by the intergovernmental panel on climate change concluded that the Earth's climate would be 2-6 degrees C warmer than in the pre-industrial era by the end of the twenty-first century| due to human-induced increases in greenhouse gases. In the absence of other changes| this would lead to the warmest period on Earth for at least the last 1000 years| and probably the last 100 000 years. The large-scale warming is expected to be accompanied by increased frequency and/or intensity of extreme events| such as heatwaves| heavy rainfall| storms and coastal flooding. There are also several possibilities that this large change could initiate nonlinear climate responses which lead to even more extreme and rapid (on the time-scale of decades) climate change| including the collapse of the ocean 'conveyor belt' circulation| the collapse of major ice sheets or the release of large amounts of methane in high latitudes leading to further global warming. Although these catastrophic events are much more speculative than the direct warming due to increased greenhouse gases| their potential impacts are great and therefore should be included in any risk assessment of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. 7688,2006,2,4,Extreme events in Italy from documentary sources: Venice as a case study,Venice risks to be submerged as a consequence of two problems: local land subsidence and sea level rise due to global warming. They both contribute to what is referred as Apparent Sea Level Rise (ASLR). Flooding Tides (locally: Acqua Alta) submerge Venice with all exponentially increasing frequency. The Acqua Alta is generated by a number of factors| the main of them being the Sirocco wind blowing over the Adriatic Sea| that ultimately displaces waters towards Venice. These extreme events have been investigated by using the documentary description of past floods| accurately reported over the last millennium| and tide gauge records for the recent period. A fundamental problem is to know the trend of the ASLR| possibly distinguishing between land subsidence and sea level components. Instrumental data go back to 1.872 and a key point is to extend our knowledge back in time. Long-term ASLR| has been investigated with the help of a biological indicator| i.e. the height of the green belt of the algae that live in the tidal range and whose tipper front shows the average high tide level. Fortunately| in the first half of the 18th century| this indicator was accurately drawn by the famous painter Antonio Canaletto (1697-1768) and his pupils| mainly Bernardo Bellotto (1722-1780)| in their photographic paintings made with an optical camera obscura. It has been possible to compare the tidal level| as it was in the 1700s and today. After careful spot investigation and minor corrections for some changes to the hydrological system occurred in the meantime| the bulk submersion of Venice estimated from the paintings is 61 +/- 11 cm with average yearly trend 1.9 mm y(-1). 1649,2006,2,4,Extreme precipitation over the Maritime Alps and associated weather regimes simulated by a regional climate model: Present-day and future climate scenarios,We use the regional climate model RegCM nested within time-slice atmospheric general circulation model experiments to investigate the possible changes of intense and extreme precipitation over the French Maritime Alps in response to global climate change. This is a region with complex orography where heavy and/or extended precipitation episodes induced catastrophic floods during the last decades. Output from a 30-year simulation of present-day climate (1961-1990) is first analysed and compared with NCEP reanalysed 700 CehPa geopotential heights (Z700) and daily precipitation observations from the Alpine Precipitation Climatology (1966-1999). Two simulations under forcing from the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios for the period 2071-2100 are used to investigate projected changes in extreme precipitation for our region of interest. In general| the model overestimates the annual cycle of precipitation. The climate change projections show some increase of precipitation| mostly outside the warm period for the B2 scenario| and some increase in the variability of the annual precipitation totals for the A2 scenario. The model reproduces the main observed patterns of the spatial leading EOFs in the Z700 field over the Atlantic-European domain. The simulated large scale circulation (LSC) variability does not differ significantly from that of the reanalysis data provided the EOFs are computed on the same domain. Two similar clusters of LSC corresponding to heavy precipitation days were identified for both simulated and observed data and their patterns do not change significantly in the climate change scenarios. The analysis of frequency histograms of extreme indices shows that the control simulation systematically underestimates the observed heavy precipitation expressed as the 90(th) percentile of rainday amounts in all seasons except summer and better reproduces the greatest 5-day precipitation accumulation. The main hydrological changes projected for the Maritime Alps consist of an increase of most intense wet spell precipitation during winters for both scenarios and during autumn for the B2 scenario. Case studies of heavy precipitation events show that the RegCM is capable to reproduce the physical mechanisms responsible for heavy precipitation over our region of interest. 7471,2006,2,4,Factors affecting the geographic distribution of the family Turdidae in the Iberian Peninsula.,Aims: To analyze the environmental factors influencing the large-scale distribution of 17 breeding species of Turdidae in the Iberian Peninsula. To test the predictions of global climatic change and the hypothesis of "abundance centers" on the frequency of occurrence of these species within the Iberian Peninsula. Methods: The frequency of occurrence of each species in UTM squares of 10 x 10 kin within blocks of 50 x 50 km was modeled by means of regression tree analyses using 26 geographic| climatological and land-use variables. Residuals of these models in each one of the 190 blocks of 50 x 50 kin (i.e.| distribution patterns in Iberia not related to autoecological-environmental preferences) were related to the distances to the European barycenter of each species. Results: The models summarizing the basic environmental preferences of the 17 species accounted for an average 78.3 % of variation in the frequency of occurrence within the Iberian Peninsula. There was a common selection for areas located at higher altitudes or in mountains| the avoidance of agricultural landscapes| and a tight relationship with climatic variables (especially insolation). The frequency of occurrence of the 17 turdid species in Spain was not markedly influenced by the distances to their European distribution barycenters. Conclusions: The large-scale distribution patterns of the 17 turdid species in the Iberian Peninsula can be adequately explained considering coarse-grained environmental variables. Climatic variables were highly influential| although their effects do not support current predictions on alteration of distribution patterns due to global warming. After controlling for autoecological-environmental preferences| the hypothesis of "centers of abundance" did not play any role in determining the distribution patterns in the Iberian Peninsula. 1622,2006,2,4,Farmers' annual activities are not tracking the speed of climate change,Global climate change impacts are already tracked in many physical and biological systems and they reveal a consistent picture of changes| e.g. an earlier onset of spring events in mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the plant growing season. However| available results are mainly based on the study of wild plants| whereas only a few studies have hinted at an earlier spring onset for agricultural plants. So far| no comprehensive study has compared phenological shifts between agricultural crops| fruit trees and wild plants. We analysed phenological time series of 93 phases in Germany (1951-2004) employing Bayesian nonparametric function estimation| and found that events related to the production of annual crops clearly differ from spring and summer events in wild plants and fruit trees. While non-farmer driven agricultural events and spring and summer growth stages of wild plants and fruit trees advanced (i.e. occurred earlier) by 4.4 to 7.1 d decade(-1)| farming indicators| such as sowing and subsequent emergence of spring and winter crops| as well as harvesting| advanced by only 2.1 d decade(-1). The estimated functional behaviour and emergence of discontinuous changes are clearly different between the 2 groups. We conclude that phenological responses to temperature changes are only reflected in data of wild plants| fruit trees and those spring growth stages of winter crops and later growth stages of spring crops which are exclusively triggered by climate| while other changes due to agricultural production are subject to management practice alterations. 7240,2006,2,4,Fathers in hot water: rising sea temperatures and a Northeastern Atlantic pipefish baby boom,We report unprecedented numbers of juvenile snake pipefish| Entelurus aequoreus| in continuous plankton records of the Northeastern Atlantic since 2002. Increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Northern Hemisphere| linked to global warming| are a likely cause. Analysis of a long-term time-series of SST data in the North-eastern Atlantic shows a rise in winter| spring and summer sea temperatures (January-September)| when the eggs of E. aqueoreus| which are brooded by the male| are developing and the larvae are growing in plankton. From what is known of the reproductive biology of closely related species| we suggest that the increased abundance of larval and juvenile E. aequoreus in the plankton as far west as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge may reflect the impact of temperature on abundance| through its effects on the operational sex ratio and potential reproductive rate| the onset of the breeding season and juvenile survival in this sex role reversed fish. 7284,2006,3,3,Feasibility of cooling the Earth with a cloud of small spacecraft near the inner Lagrange point (L1),If it were to become apparent that dangerous changes in global climate were inevitable| despite greenhouse gas controls| active methods to cool the Earth on an emergency basis might be desirable. The concept considered here is to block 1.8% of the solar flux with a space sunshade orbited near the inner Lagrange point (L1)| in-line between the Earth and sun. Following the work of J. Early [Early| A (1989) J Br Interplanet Soc 42:567-569]| transparent material would be used to deflect the sunlight| rather than to absorb it| to minimize the shift in balance out from L1 caused by radiation pressure. Three advances aimed at practical implementation are presented. First is an optical design for a very thin refractive screen with low reflectivity| leading to a total sunshade mass of approximate to 20 million tons. Second is a concept aimed at reducing transportation cost to $50/kg by using electromagnetic acceleration to escape Earth's gravity| followed by ion propulsion. Third is an implementation of the sunshade as a cloud of many spacecraft| autonomously stabilized by modulating solar radiation pressure. These meter-sized "flyers" would be assembled completely before launch| avoiding any need for construction or unfolding in space. They would weigh a gram each| be launched in stacks of 800|000| and remain for a projected lifetime of 50 years within a 100|000km-long cloud. The concept builds on existing technologies. It seems feasible that it could be developed and deployed in approximate to 25 years at a cost of a few trillion dollars| < 0.5% of world gross domestic product (GDP) over that time. 7324,2006,3,4,Fission or fossil: Life cycle assessment of hydrogen production,A comparative hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted to evaluate two different methods for hydrogen production. The environmental impacts from nuclear assisted thermochemical water splitting are compared to hydrogen production from natural gas steam reforming with CO2 sequestration. The results show that the two methods have significantly different impacts. The nuclear alternative has lower impacts on global warming potential| acidification and eutrophication| and much higher impacts from radiation and human toxicity. A weighting procedure is not applied| hence no overall "winner" can be proclaimed. The relative importance of the different impacts remains a challenge for decision makers. Further| the assessment has demonstrated the importance of including services in a comparative assessment. Ordinary process LCA may produce distorted results| since a larger fraction of life cycle impacts may occur outside the system boundaries in one study compared to another due to different fractions of service inputs. 1769,2006,3,2,Flexible multi-gas climate policies,I analyse the costs of policies aimed at stabilising global climate change. I show that abatement of all major greenhouse gases is important to the costs of climate policies and that flexible reduction of methane and other non-CO2 gases may reduce costs significantly. The non-CO2 gases offer many low-cost abatement options and this reduces the need for abatement of CO2 to stabilise climate change. Multi-gas flexibility may be important if climate policies reflect not only long-term stabilisation| but also the rate at which the climate changes| as the latter may require large reductions in emissions in the short-term. 7348,2006,2,4,Floodplain sedimentation in the Upper Mississippi Valley: Natural versus human accelerated,Understanding the time scales and pathways for response and recovery of rivers and floodplains to episodic changes in erosion and sedimentation has been a long standing issue in fluvial geomorphology. Floodplains are an important component of watershed systems because they affect downstream storage and delivery of overbank flood waters| and they also serve as sources and temporary sinks for sediments and toxic substances delivered by river systems. Here| (14)C and (137)Cs isotopic dating methods are used along with ages of culturally related phenomena associated with mining and agriculture to determine rates of sedimentation and morphologic change for a reach of the upper Mississippi River and adjacent tributaries in southwestern Wisconsin and northwestern Illinois. The most important environmental change that influenced fluvial activity in this region during last 10|000 years involved the conversion of a late Holocene mosaic of prairie and forest to a landscape dominated by cropland and pastureland associated with Euro-American settlement. Results presented herein for the Upper Mississippi Valley (UMV) show that the shift from pre-agriculture| natural land cover to landscape dominance by agricultural land use of the last 175-200 years typically increased rates and magnitudes of floodplain sedimentation by at least an order of magnitude. Accelerated overbank flooding led to increased bank heights on tributary streams and| in turn| contributed to more frequent deep flows of high energy. These high energy flows subsequently promoted bank erosion and lateral channel migration| and the formation of a historical meander belt whose alluvial surface constitutes a new historical floodplain inset against the earlier historical floodplain. The new historical floodplain serves as a "flume-like" channel that provides efficient downstream transport of water and sediment associated with moderate and large magnitude floods. Floodplains on lower tributaries| however| continue to experience rates of overbank sedimentation that are of anomalously high magnitude given improved land cover and land conservation since about 1950. This lower valley anomaly is explained by minimal development of historical (agriculture period) meander belts because of relatively low stream power in these channel and floodplain reaches of relatively low gradient. In general| long-term pre-agriculture rates of vertical accretion between about 10|000 and 200 years ago averaged about 0.2 mm yr(-1) in tributary watersheds smaller than about 700 km(2) and about 0.9 mm yr(-1) on the floodplain of the upper Mississippi River where the contributing watershed area increases to about 170|000 km2. On the other hand| rates of historical vertical accretion during the period of agricultural dominance of the last 200 years average between 2 and 20 mm yr(-1)| with short episodes of even higher rates during times of particularly poor land conservation practices. Significant hydrologic effects of mining and agricultural started by the 1820s and became widespread in the study region by the mid-19th century. The hydrologic and geomorphic influences of mining were relatively minor compared to those related to agriculture. High resolution dating of floodplain vertical accretion deposits shows that large floods have frequently provided major increments of sedimentation on floodplains of tributaries and the main valley upper Mississippi River. The relative importance of large floods as contributors to floodplain vertical accretion is noteworthy bcause global atmospheric circulation models indicate that the main channel upper Mississippi River should experience increased frequencies of extreme hydrologic events| including large floods| with anticipated continued global warming. Instrumental and stratigraphic records show that| coincident with global warming| a shift to more frequent large floods occurred since 1950 on the upper Mississippi River| and these floods generally contributed high magnitudes of floodplain sedimentation. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7418,2006,3,4,Flow control and unsteady-state analysis on thermal performance of solar air collectors,Promotion of the use of renewable energy| such as solar heat| for space heating and drying crops and wood is desired to prevent global warming. High-temperature collection of heat by air collectors producing as much as 50 degrees C in winter for space heating and about 80 degrees C in summer for exchanging heat to circulating water for hot water supply would be appropriate applications. In this study| first| a flow control system for constant outlet temperature was installed in a hot air supply system to examine the feasibility of the control system. After experiments| it was found that the control system could function satisfactory. Second| an unsteady-state analysis was made to predict the thermal performance of a flat-plate collector under a given condition of variable flow rate. The analytical model became simple by the assumptions that the heat capacity of the air in the collector and heat conduction in the flow direction through the air and the materials of the collector could be neglected. The maximum differences in outlet temperature and collector efficiency for constant flow rate between the analysis and the experiment were 1.8 degrees C and 6% of the collector efficiency| respectively| except in the beginning of experiments. The biggest difference in the collector efficiency was 30% at 3:00 P.M.| which occurred at the end of one of the experiments. The analytical results generally agreed well with the experimental results even when the flow rate and solar radiation changed greatly as time went on. Transient effects are important to predict outlet temperature for variable solar radiation intensity| wind speed| and flow rate. 7657,2006,2,4,Flow velocities of active rock glaciers in the Austrian Alps,High surface flow velocities of up to 3 m a(-1) were measured near the front of three active rock glaciers in the western Stubai Alps (Rei-chenkar) and Otztal Alps (Kaiserberg and Olgrube) in Tyrol (Austria) using differential GPS technology. Flow velocities have increased since about 1990. The highest velocities were recorded in 2003 and 2004| but showed a slight decrease in 2005. At the Reichenkar rock glacier| flow rates are constant throughout the year| indicating that meltwater has no significant influence on the flow mechanism. At Olgrube rock glacier| flow velocities vary seasonally with considerably higher velocities during the melt season. Meltwater is likely to influence the flow of Olgrube rock glacier as evident by several springs near the base of the steep front. Because the high surface velocities cannot be explained by internal deformation alone on Reichenkar rock glacier| we assume that horizontal deformation must also occur along a well defined shear zone within a water-saturated| fine-grained layer at the base of the frozen body. The increased surface flow velocities since about 1990 are probably caused by slightly increased ice temperature and greater amounts of meltwater discharge during the summer| a product of global warming. 7619,2006,2,4,Flowering phenology of South African Oxalis - possible indicator of climate change?,Oxalis is a large geophytic genus that has diversified extensively in the winter rainfall region of the Cape Flora| South Africa. Patterns of flowering within Oxalis were investigated at both a regional scale (focusing on timing of flowering of Oxalis species in the Cape Region) and a local scale in a single habitat| the J.S. Marais Park| Stellenbosch| over 3 years (1999| 2003 and 2004). We found the active growth period of Oxalis to coincide with the peak rainfall period in the Cape Region| the start of flowering dependent on both the onset of the first significant rains and a drop in average daily temperatures. Both at a regional and local scale endospermous (dormant seed) species displayed an extended flowering season| while exendospermous (non-dormant seed) species displayed flowering peaks early in the rainy season. This correlates well with seedling strategies| in that dormant seeds of endospermous species are less affected by the dry summer months| while seeds of exendospermous species lack dormancy| and must thus germinate and establish seedlings well-before the onset of the dry summer months. Oxalis species in the local study displayed sequential replacement of flowering onset over the growing season| although there was an overlap in peak flowering times. The flowering sensitivity to alterations in temperature and delayed onset of winter rains suggests that specifically exendospermous species of Oxalis may indicate changes in climate. We hypothesize that global warming will influence the relative proportions of exendospermous vs. endospermous species flowering at local and regional scales in the Cape Region of South Africa. (c) 2005 SAAB. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7319,2006,2,3,Food crop production in Nigeria. II. Potential effects of climate change,Two separate lines of investigation were adapted from the recommendations of the 1994 United States Country Studies Program (USCP). In one approach| arbitrary incremental scenarios were adopted to assess the response of crop yield to changes in the various elements of climate. Using the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) crop model| tests were conducted to demonstrate how crop yield might respond to changes in rainfall| relative humidity (RH)| temperature| solar radiation and CO2 concentration. The value of one element was altered incrementally while holding constant the values of the others. In the second approach| potential future changes in the yields of maize| sorghum| millet| rice and cassava were simulated based on a scenario specifying mean conditions for 1961-9190 as a baseline and general circulation model (GCM) projections from this for 3 periods: 2010-2039| 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The results predicted a possible increase in crop yield during the first half of the 21st century to be followed by a decrease during the second half. Enhanced crop yield was explained by projected increases in rainfall| solar radiation| atmospheric humidity and CO2 concentrations. Lower yields were explained in terms of continued global warming| as a result of which maximum and minimum temperatures approach the limits of tolerance for the modelled crops. 7250,2006,3,3,Forest carbon dynamics in the Pacific Northwest (USA) and the St. Petersburg region of Russia: Comparisons and policy implications,Forests of the United States and Russia can play a positive role in reducing the extent of global warming caused by greenhouse gases| especially carbon dioxide. To determine the extent of carbon sequestration| physical| ecological| economic| and social issues need to be considered| including different forest management objectives across major forest ownership groups. Private timberlands in the U.S. Pacific Northwest are relatively young| well stocked| and sequestering carbon at relatively high rates. Forests in northwestern Russia are generally less productive than those in the Northwestern U.S. but cover extensive areas. A large increase in carbon storage per hectare in live tree biomass is projected on National Forest timberlands in the U.S. Pacific Northwest for all selected scenarios| with an increase of between 157-175 Mg by 2050 and a near doubling of 1970s levels. On private timberlands in the Pacific Northwest| average carbon in live tree biomass per hectare has been declining historically but began to level off near 65 Mg in 2000; projected levels by 2050 are roughly what they were in 1970 at approximately 80 Mg. In the St. Petersburg region| average carbon stores were similar to those on private lands in the Pacific Northwest: 57 Mg per hectare in 2000 and ranging from 40 to 64 Mg by 2050. Although the projected futures reflect a broad range of policy options| larger differences in projected carbon stores result from the starting conditions determined by ownership| regional environmental conditions| and past changes in forest management. However| an important change of forest management objective| such as the end of all timber harvest on National Forests in the Pacific Northwest or complete elimination of mature timber in the St. Petersburg region| can lead to substantial change in carbon stores over the next 50 years. 1607,2006,2,4,Frequency of debris flows and rockfall along the Mendoza river valley (Central Andes)| Argentina: Associated risk and future scenario,The frequency of debris flows and rockfalls was estimated by temporal distribution of these events during the last 50 years. This parameter was expressed by annual probability of occurrence and mean interval of recurrence of historical events. More recurrent events in this sector of the Central Andes are associated with the Guido locality and tunnels situated along International road No. 7. Furthermore| these events are more frequent in Cordillera Frontal where the mean recurrence interval was lower than in Precordillera. The maximum interval of recurrence is rarely greater than 20 years| showing the activity of these events on human lives and infrastructure in this region. The accuracy of the determined recurrence frequency is discussed. A future scenario indicates that landslides will be probably more frequent under global climate change. As a consequence| those most vulnerable elements in the region| the international access routes| may be severely damaged in the future| implying an adverse impact in our regional economy. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 7598,2006,4,3,FTIR spectroscopy and estimation of the global warming potential of CF3Br and C2F4,High-resolution (0.03 cm(-1)) absolute infrared photoabsorption cross sections of bromotrifluoromethane (CF3Br) and tetralluoroethylene (C2F4) have been measured using Fourier-transformed infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy at temperatures between 213 and 296 K. The measured cross sections were subsequently used to estimate the radiative forcings and the global warming potentials of these two species. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7270,2006,4,4,FTIR spectroscopy and radiative forcing of octafluorocyclobutane and octofluorocyclopentene,High-resolution (0.03 cm(-1)) absolute infrared photoabsorption cross-sections of octafluorocyclobutane (c-C4F8) and octafluorocyclopentene (c-C5F8) have been measured using Fourier-transformed infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy at 279 and 297 K. Radiative forcing and global warming potential of these two species was estimated using the measured infrared cross section spectra. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7692,2006,3,3,Fundamental processes and implications during in situ aeration of old landfills,Results of investigations from many old landfills in Germany and Europe indicate that significant emissions occur under conventional landfill operating conditions (i.e.| anaerobic conditions). Significant emissions via the gas phase are predicted to last at least three decades after landfill closure| while leachate emissions are predicted to continue for many decades| potentially even lasting for centuries [Heyer| K.-U.| Stegmann| R.| 1997. Langfristiges Gefahrdungspotenzial und Deponieverhalten von Ablagerungen; Bericht zum Teilvorhaben TV 4 im BMBF-Verbundvorhaben| "Deponiekorper"'| Arbeitsbereich Abfallwirtschaft der TU Hamburg-Harburg| Projekttrager PTA-WAS (Umweltbundesamt Berlin); Krumpelbeck| I.| 2000. Untersuchungen zum langfristigen Verhalten von Siedlungsabfall-deponien. Dissertation; Heft 3 der Veroffentlichungen der Bergischen Universitat - Gesamthochschule Wuppertal; Kjeldsen| P.| Christophersen| M.| 2001. Composition of leachate from old landfills in Denmark. Waste Management and Research| 200 1; 19(3):249-56]. When considering the specific type and quality| and quite often lack of| protection barriers associated with old landfills| these leachate and gas emissions may result in a significant negative impact on the environment. However| complete sealing of the landfill only temporarily reduces emissions because dry-conservation of the biodegradable waste fraction results| thus not allowing any severe reduction in the emission and hazardous potential of the landfill to occur. If noticeable damage of the surface capping system occurred in these landfills| infiltrating water would restart the interrupted emission formation. In contrast| aerobic in situ stabilization by means of low pressure aeration [AEROflott (R)| Stegmann| R.| Hupe| K.| Heyer| K.-U.| 2000. Verfahren zur abgestuften beschleunigten in situ-Stabilisierung von Deponien und Altablagerungen. Patent Nr. 10005243. Deutsches Patent- und Markenamt| Munchen] attempts to stabilize and modify the inventory of organic matter inside the landfill| acting to reduce the emission potential in a more sustainable manner. By enabling faster and more extensive aerobic degradation processes in the landfill (compared with anaerobic processes)| the organics (e.g.| hydrocarbons) are degraded significantly faster| resulting in an increased carbon discharge via the gas phase| as well as reduced leachate concentrations. Because carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main compound in the extracted off-gas (instead of methane (CH4)| which dominated under anaerobic landfill conditions)| the negative impact of diffuse LFG emissions towards an increased global warming effect may be significantly lowered. With respect to leachate quality| a reduction of organic compounds as well as ammonia-nitrogen can be expected. In addition to these positive ecological effects| aerobic in situ stabilization is associated with significant cost savings potential due to both quantitative and qualitative reductions in the aftercare period. This paper describes the fundamental processes and implications of in situ landfill aeration. Additionally| possible criteria for defining an endpoint of the active aeration process are presented and discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7442,2006,3,4,Gas-water-rock interactions in Frio Formation following CO2 injection: Implications for the storage of greenhouse gases in sedimentary basins,To investigate the potential for the geologic storage of CO2 in saline sedimentary aquifers| 1600 t Of CO2 were injected at 1500 m depth into a 24-in-thick sandstone section of the Frio Formation| a regional brine and oil reservoir in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Fluid samples obtained from the injection and observation wells before CO2 injection showed a Na-CaCl-type brine with 93|000 mg/L total dissolved solids (TDS) at near saturation with CH4 at reservoir conditions. Following CO2 breakthrough| samples showed sharp drops in pH (6.5-5.7)| pronounced increases in alkalinity (100-3000 mg/L as HCO3) and Fe (30-1100 mg/L)| and significant shifts in the isotopic compositions of H2O| dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC)| and CH4. Geochemical modeling indicates that brine pH would have dropped lower but for the buffering by dissolution of carbonate and iron oxyhydroxides. This rapid dissolution of carbonate and other minerals could ultimately create pathways in the rock seals or well cements for CO2 and brine leakage. Dissolution of minerals| especially iron oxyhydroxides| could mobilize toxic trace metals and| where residual oil or suitable organics are present| the injected CO2 could also mobilize toxic organic compounds. Environmental impacts could be major if large brine volumes with mobilized toxic metals and organics migrated into potable groundwater. The 8180 values for brine and CO2 samples indicate that supercritical CO2 comprises similar to 50% of pore-fluid volume similar to 6 mo after the end of injection. Postinjection sampling| coupled with geochemical modeling| indicates that the brine gradually will return to its preinjection composition. 7538,2006,3,4,Gas-water-rock interactions in sedimentary basins: CO2 sequestration in the Frio Formation| Texas| USA,To investigate the potential for the geologic storage Of CO2 in saline sedimentary aquifers| 1600 ton Of CO2 were injected at similar to 1500 m depth into a 24-m sandstone section of the Frio Formation - a regional reservoir in the US Gulf Coast. Fluid samples obtained from the injection and observation wells before| during and after CO2 injection show a Na-Ca-Cl type brine with 93|000 mg/L TDS and near saturation of CH4 at reservoir conditions. As injected CO2 gas reached the observation well| results showed sharp drops in pH (6.5 to 5.7)| pronounced increases in alkalinity (100 to 3000 mg/L as HCO3) and Fe (30 to 1100 mg/L)| and significant shifts in the isotopic compositions of H2O and DIC. Geochemical modeling indicates that brine pH would have dropped lower| but for buffering by dissolution of calcite and Fe oxyhydroxides. Post-injection results show the brine gradually returning to its pre-injection composition. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1651,2006,3,3,General equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option under the Clean Development Mechanism,The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is considered a key instrument to encourage developing countries' participation in the mitigation of global climate change. Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the energy supply and demand side activities are the main options to be implemented under the CDM. This paper analyses the general equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option-the substitution of thermal power with hydropower-in Thailand under the CDM. A static multi-sector general equilibrium model has been developed for the purpose of this study. The key finding of the study is that the substitution of electricity generation from thermal power plants with that from hydropower plants would increase economic welfare in Thailand. The supply side option would| however| adversely affect the gross domestic product (GDP) and the trade balance. The percentage changes in economic welfare| GDP and trade balance increase with the level of substitution and the price of certified emission reduction (CER) units. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7698,2006,2,2,Geographic distribution of the diapycnal component of thermohaline circulations in coupled climate models,Data archives from four global coupled ocean-atmosphere models are used to construct maps of diapycnal mass flux through selected isopycnal surfaces in the model oceans. The maps illustrate location and strength of the up and downwelling limbs of thermohaline-forced overturning loops whose stability in the face of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations is of major concern in century-scale climate prediction. The up and downwelling limbs simulated by the four models for present-day greenhouse gas concentrations are compared with observational estimates. Predicted changes in the overturning brought about by gradually rising atmospheric CO2 content are compared model-to-model. While all four models predict some decline in the rate of Atlantic overturning during CO2-induced global warming| the geographic layout of the overturning circulations in each model is found to be insensitive to the changing climate. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1669,2006,5,4,Geological and geomorphological insights into Antarctic ice sheet evolution,Technical advances in the study of ice-free parts of Antarctica can provide quantitative records that are useful for constraining and refining models of ice sheet evolution and behaviour. Such records improve our understanding of system trajectory| influence the questions we ask about system stability and help to define the ice-sheet processes that are relevant on different time-scales. Here| we illustrate the contribution of cosmogenic isotope analysis of exposed bedrock surfaces and marine geophysical surveying to the understanding of Antarctic ice sheet evolution on a range of time-scales. In the Dry Valleys of East Antarctica| 3 He dating of subglacial flood deposits that are now exposed on mountain summits provide evidence of an expanded and thicker Mid-Miocene ice sheet. The survival of surface boulders for approximately 14 Myr| the oldest yet measured| demonstrates exceptionally low rates of subsequent erosion and points to the persistence and stability of the dry polar desert climate since that time. Increasingly| there are constraints on West Antarctic ice sheet fluctuations during Quaternary glacial cycles. In the Sarnoff Mountains of Marie Byrd Land in West Antarctica| (10)Be and (26)Al cosmogenic isotope analysis of glacial erratics and bedrock reveal steady thinning of the ice sheet from 10 400 years ago to the present| probably as a result of grounding line retreat. In the Antarctic Peninsula| offshore analysis reveals an extensive ice sheet at the last glacial maximum. Based on radiocarbon dating| deglaciation began by 17 000 cal. yr BP and was complete by 9500 cal yr BP. Deglaciation of the west and east sides of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet occurred at different times and rates| but was largely complete by the Early Holocene. At that time ice shelves were less extensive on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula than they are today. The message from the past is that individual glacier drainage basins in Antarctica respond in different and distinctive ways to global climate change| depending on the link between regional topography and climate setting. 1730,2006,2,2,GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics,The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change| given our computational constraints. In particular| an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change| and this goal has been achieved. Two versions of the coupled model are described| called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component| along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models| the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2 degrees latitude x 2.5 degrees longitude| the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1 degrees in latitude and longitude| with meridional resolution equatorward of 30 degrees becoming progressively finer| such that the meridional resolution is 1/3 degrees at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean| with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The control simulations have stable| realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model| both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1| thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1| which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic. Both models have been used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1. models are 2.9 and 3.4 K| respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO(2). The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/). 7668,2006,5,4,Global extinction event in benthic foraminifera across the Paleocene Eocene boundary at the Dababiya Stratotype section,A global extinction event of deep-sea benthic foraminifera occurred at the Paleocene/Eocene (P/E) boundary| coeval with a period of rapid global warming (Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum; IETM) and a negative excursion in marine and terrestrial delta C-13 values (Carbon Isotope Excursion; CIE). Benthic foraminifera from marginal and epicontinental basins show lesser extinctions and/or temporary assemblage changes. Detailed taxonomical and quantitative analysis of the benthic foraminiferal assemblages and of the paleoenvironmental turnover across the P/E boundary in the outer neritic Dababiya section (Egypt)| the Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) for the P/E boundary| is of great importance for correlation with other P/E boundary sites. We illustrate the 46 most representative benthic foraminiferal taxa (belonging to 27 genera) in order to compare the taxonomy of species described in Egypt with that of species described from other sections worldwide. Angulogavelinella avnimelechi had its uppermost occurrence at the base of the CIE| and its extinction may be correlated to the main phase of extinction of benthic foraminifera (Benthic Foraminiferal Extinction Event. BEE) in the deep sea. At the same level| the species richness and diversity decreased| and the relative abundance of non-calcareous agglutinated foraminifera increased dramatically| probably related to intense dissolution as seen in the lithology. However| dissolution of carbonate was not complete through the whole CIE at Dababiya| and thus may not have been the only cause of the foraminiferal turnover. 7351,2006,2,3,Global temperature change,Global surface temperature has increased approximate to 0.2 degrees C per decade in the past 30 years| similar to the warming rate predicted in the 19805 in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century| and we suggest that the increased West-East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Ninos| such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region| and probably the planet as a whole| is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within approximate to 1 degrees C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than approximate to 1 degrees C| relative to 2000| will constitute "dangerous" climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. 7670,2006,2,4,Global warming affect Collembola community: A long-term study,Long-term (1992-2002) effects of climate changes on soil Collembola in Scots pine Pinus sylvestris forests in North Vidzeme Biosphere Reserve (northern Latvia) are investigated. The study was carried out in three forest stands of different age| young (30-40 years)| middle aged (50-70 years)| and old (150-200 years). One hundred soil. samples were collected within each sampling site once a year in autumn over a period of 11 years. In total| 66 species of Collembola were found. Species richness varied between 47 and 56 and density of Collembota from 7300 to 8300 ind m(-2). A statistically significant increase in the sums of positive air temperatures (>= 4 degrees C) was recorded during the period of investigation. Precipitation and thereby soil moisture showed considerable year-to-year fluctuations. Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling of the data yielded two axes explaining 48.6% and 38.6% of the variation. Axis 1 coincided with the trend of sums of positive air temperature (r = 0.66). Axis 1 corresponded best with the negative impact of warming of climate on Collembola| mainly on the euedaphic species inhabiting the deeper layers of the organic soil horizon. Axis 2 was considered reflecting the effect of soil moisture fluctuations (correlation with moisture r = -0.62) on litter dwelling| mostly hemiedaphic Collembola. Species richness tended to decrease gradually in all forest sites during the study period from 29-36 to 13-26 species. Correlation between axes (r = 0.455) indicated interaction effects between positive air temperatures and soil moisture. Forest age showed no substantial effect on the community structure| therefore the changes observed cannot be explained by ecological. succession. (c) 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 7684,2006,3,3,Global warming agreements| international trade and energy/carbon embodiments: an input-output approach to the Italian case,In the Kyoto Protocol the absence of Green House Gases (GHGs) commitments of developing countries (non-Annex 1) and the more flexible terms of implementation which are allowed to countries shifting toward a market economy (transition economies) naturally lead to the absence or to less constraining national measures and policies of reduction of the GHGs emissions which| in turn| may determine a comparative advantage in the production of the highest energy/carbon intensive commodities for these countries. These arguments are valid also considering the future implementation of the European Emission Allowance Trading Scheme (EATS). Thus| developing countries may become a haven for the production of not environmental-friendly commodities;| in this case| the so-called Pollution Haven Hypothesis| stating that due to freer international trade the comparative advantage may change the economic structure and consequently the trade patterns of the countries linked by trade relationships| could occur. This would lead to the increase of the transfers of energy and carbon embodied in traded commodities from developing countries and transition economies toward Kyoto or EATS constrained countries. The aim of this paper is to verify if for Italy| as a Kyoto and EATS complying country| evidence of a change in the trade patterns| occurred on the basis of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis| does exist and to estimate the magnitude of the under-estimation of the carbon actually emitted: the carbon leakage. The Input-Output model has been used to calculate the intensities of energy consumption and the related Green House Gases emission| for each Italian economic sector. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7382,2006,2,4,Global warming and excess nitrogen may induce butterfly decline by microclimatic cooling,Global warming may explain the current poleward shift of species distributions. However| paradoxically| climatic warming can lead to microclimatic cooling in spring by advancing plant growth| an effect worsened by excess nitrogen. We suggest that spring-developing but thermophilous organisms| such as butterflies hibernating as egg or larva| are particularly sensitive to the cooling of microclimates. Using published data on butterfly trends in distribution| we report a comparatively greater decline in egg-larva hibernators in European countries with oceanic climates and high nitrogen deposition| which supports this explanation. Furthermore| trends in abundance from a nationwide butterfly monitoring scheme reveal a 63% decrease over 13 years (1992-2004) for egg-larva hibernators in the Netherlands| contrasting with a nonsignificant trend in adult-pupa hibernators. This evidence supports the hypothesis that these environmental changes pose new threats to spring-developing| thermophilous species. We underline the threat of climate change to biodiversity| as previously suggested on the basis of mobility| habitat fragmentation and evolutionary adaptation| but we here emphasize a different ecological axis of change in habitat quality. 7560,2006,2,3,Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots,Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity| but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and| based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates| calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots. Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach| we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models| (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes| (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not| and (4) different migration capabilities. Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships. In addition| average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years. Projected percent extinctions ranged from < 1 to 43% of the endemic biota (average 11.6%)| with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates| followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions. Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates; in some scenarios| however| hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates. Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region| Caribbean| Indo-Burma| Mediterranean Basin| Southwest Australia| and Tropical Andes| where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species. Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years| estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation| supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity. 7349,2006,2,4,Global warming and fluvial geomorphology,Future global warming has a number of implications for fluvial geomorphology because of changes in such phenomena as rates of evapotranspiration| precipitation characteristics| plant distributions| plant stomatal closure| sea levels| glacier and permafrost melting| and human responses. Potential changes in rivers are outlined in this review in the context of changes in the intensity of rainfall| the activity of tropical cyclones| runoff response (including that of Europe| dry lands and high latitude environments)| and geomorphological reactions| including rates of soil erosion. In general| however| much work remains to be done to establish the full range of geomorphological responses that may take place in fluvial systems. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7642,2006,2,4,Global warming and positive fitness response in mountain populations of common lizards Lacerta vivipara,Recent global warming threatens many species and has already caused population- and species-level extinctions. In particular| high risks of extinction are expected for isolated populations of species with low dispersal abilities. These predictions rely on widely used 'climatic envelope' models| while individual responses| the ultimate driver of a species response to climate change| have been most often neglected. Here| we report on some changes in life-history traits of a dispersal-limited reptile species (a poorly studied taxa) living in isolated populations. Using long-term data on common lizards collected in southern France| we show that individual body size dramatically increased in all the four populations studied over the past 18 years. This increase in body size in all age classes appeared related to a concomitant increase in temperature experienced during the first month of life (August). Daily maximum temperature in August increased by 2.2 degrees C and yearling snout-vent-length increased by about 28%. As a result| adult female body size increased markedly| and| as fecundity is strongly dependent on female body size| clutch size and total reproductive output also increased. For one population where capture-recapture data were available| adult survival was positively related to May temperature. All fitness components investigated therefore responded positively to the increase in temperature| such that it might be concluded that the common lizard has been advantaged by the shift in temperature. We contrast these short-term results with the long-term habitat-based prediction that these populations located close to mountain tops on the southern margin of the species range should be unable to cope with the alteration of their habitat. To achieve a better prediction of a species persistence| one will probably need to combine both habitat and individual-based approaches. 7701,2006,2,4,Global warming and temperature-mediated increases in cercarial emergence in trematode parasites,Global warming can affect the world's biota and the functioning of ecosystems in many indirect ways. Recent evidence indicates that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of parasitic diseases| with potentially drastic consequences for their hosts. It is also possible that warmer conditions could promote the transmission of parasites and raise their local abundance. Here I have compiled experimental data on the effect of temperature on the emergence of infective stages (cercariae) of trematode parasites from their snail intermediate hosts. Temperature-mediated changes in cercarial output varied widely among trematode species| from small reductions to 200-fold increases in response to a 10 degrees C rise in temperature| with a geometric mean suggesting an almost 8-fold increase. Overall| the observed temperature-mediated increases in cercarial output are much more substantial than those expected from basic physiological processes| for which 2- to 3-fold increases are normally seen. Some of the most extreme increases in cercarial output may be artefacts of the methods used in the original studies; however| exclusion of these extreme values has little impact on the preceding conclusion. Across both species values and phylogenetically independent contrasts| neither the magnitude of the initial cercarial output nor the shell size of the snail host correlated with the relative increase in cercarial production mediated by rising temperature. In contrast| the latitude from which the snail-trematode association originated correlated negatively with temperature-mediated increases in cercarial production: within the 20 degrees to 55 degrees latitude range| trematodes from lower latitudes showed more pronounced temperature-driven increases in cercarial output than those from higher latitudes. These results suggest that the small increases in air and water temperature forecast by many climate models will not only influence the geographical distribution of some diseases| but may also promote the proliferation of their infective stages in many ecosystems. 7483,2006,2,4,Global warming and the earlier start of the Japanese-cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) pollen season in Toyama| Japan,Atmospheric pollen surveys were conducted in Toyama City| Japan over a 21-year period (1983-2003). Airborne pollen was collected by two methods| the gravimetric method and the volumetric method. The gravimetric method indicated that the start of the Cryptomeria japonica pollen season| as indicated by pollen dispersion| has advanced from day 73 (from January 1) in 1983 to day 47 in 2003. Measurements taken using the volumetric method confirmed this trend. There was a significant correlation between the start dates obtained by both methods. Meteorological data indicated that the most noticeable elevation in temperature during the experimental period occurred in February - an increase of 2.1 degrees C. Significant correlations existed between the mean temperatures and the start dates of the pollen season. These results support the steadily increasing number of reports indicating a global warming trend. The temperature change in February in affecting the start dates of the C. japonica pollen season is particularly relevant in the context of human health. Further studies will be needed to clarify the effects of the global warming trend on the pollen season and human health in more detail. 7289,2006,2,3,Global warming and the summertime evapotranspiration regime of the Alpine region,Changes of the summer evapotranspiration regime under increased levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases are discussed for three Alpine river basins on the basis of a new set of simulations carried out with a high-resolution hydrological model. The climate change signal was inferred from the output of two simulations with a state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM)| a reference run valid for 1961-1990 and a time-slice simulation valid for 2071-2100 under forcing from the A2 IPCC emission scenario. In this particular GCM experiment and with respect to the Alpine region summer temperature was found to increase by 3 to 4 degrees C| whereas precipitation was found to decrease by 10 to 20%. Global radiation and water vapor pressure deficit were found to increase by about 5% and 2 hPa| respectively. On this background| an overall increase of potential evapotranspiration of about 20% relative to the baseline was predicted by the hydrological model| with important variations between but also within individual basins. The results of the hydrological simulations also revealed a reduction in the evapotranspiration efficiency that depends on altitude. Accordingly| actual evapotranspiration was found to increase at high altitudes and to the south of the Alps| but to decrease in low elevation areas of the northern forelands and in the inner-Alpine domain. Such a differentiation does not appear in the GCM scenario| which predicts an overall increase in evapotranspiration over the Alps. This underlines the importance of detailed simulations for the quantitative assessment of the regional impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle. 7444,2006,3,3,Global warming impact of electricity generation from beef cattle manure: A life cycle assessment study,We compare calculated greenhouse gas emissions for a North American beef feedlot operation| which includes biogas production by anaerobic digestion with subsequent electricity generation (the AD case)| to the emissions for a "business as usual" case| which includes both a feedlot and an equivalent amount of grid-generated electricity. Anaerobic digestion| biogas production and electricity production are the major sources of differences in emissions. Fertilizer production| crop production| manure collection and spreading| as well as the associated transport stages are also considered within the LCA system boundaries; impacts on life cycle emissions from these sources are lower. Running a feedlot and producing electricity using typical grid power plants produces 3|845 kg CO2-eq/MWh while running a feedlot| which generates biogas to produce electricity| produces 2|965 kg CO2-eq/MWh. This savings of 880 kg CO2-eq/MWh arises because the net power generation in the AD case emits about 90% less life cycle GHG emissions compared to grid-average electricity. The high overall emission levels arise due to emissions associated with enteric fermentation in beef cattle as the main source of GHG emissions in both the "business as usual" and the AD cases. It contributed 57% of total emissions for the feedlot /biogas /electricity system and 44% of total emissions for the feedlot /grid electricity system. 7615,2006,4,3,Global warming patterns over the North Pacific: ENSO versus AO,The relationships between the natural variability and CO2-induced response over the Pacific region are investigated in terms of the spatial anomaly pattern of SST| sea level pressure and precipitation by a multi-model intercomparison analysis| based on the 18-model results contributing to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The analysis indicates that the CO2-induced response pattern is related with the model natural variability modes| ENSO and AO. In the tropical Pacific| an ENSO-like global warming pattern is simulated by the majority of the models| with mostly El Ni (n) over tildeo-like change. In the Arctic region| an AO-like global warming pattern is simulated by many models| with the positive definite AO-phase change| if AO-like. It is suggested that the increase in meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere| and the lower stratosphere| provides a preferable condition for the positive AO-like change in the high latitudes by intensifying the subtropical jet| while the increase in the static stability provides a preferable condition for the El Ni (n) over tildeo-like change in the low latitudes| by reducing the large-scale ambient circulations. However| the sign of the mass (SLP) anomaly is incompatible over the North Pacific| between the positive AO-like change and the El Ni (n) over tildeo-like change. As a result| the present models cannot fully determine the relative importance between the mechanisms inducing the positive AO-like change and inducing the ENSO-like change| leading to scattering in global warming patterns in regional scales over the North Pacific. 1727,2006,3,4,Global warming: Can existing reserves really preserve current levels of biological diversity?,Paleoecological evidence and paleoclimatic records indicate that there was a plant poleward migration in latitude and an upward shift in elevation with increased temperatures after the last glaciation. Recent studies have shown that global warming over the past 100 years has been having a noticeable effect on living systems. Current global warming is causing a poleward and upward shift in the range of many plants and animals. Climate change| in connection with other global changes| is threatening the survival of a wide range of plant and animal species. This raises the question: can existing reserves really preserve current levels of biological diversity in the long term given the present rapid pace of climate change? The present paper deals with this question in the context of the responses of plants and animals to global climate change| based on a literature review. Consequently| we recommend expanding reserves towards the poles and/or towards higher altitudes| to permit species to shift their ranges to keep pace with global warming. 7613,2006,3,3,Global warming: science| money and self-preservation,The origin of the International Photochemical and Storage of Solar Energy (IPS) conferences can be traced to the oil crisis during the 1970s that emerged out of politically-driven shortage of supply. The next crisis will most likely emerge out of excess of supply. The solutions that were contemplated in the 1970s are still very relevant. We will focus here on human contributions to changes in the atmospheric chemical composition that will most likely have a major impact on the global climate. The key issue addressed is the prediction of the possibility that the system will self-adjust to achieve sustainable development and thus immunize us from the consequences of wrong decisions. We conclude with a presentation of a computer model that greatly accelerates the cause-effect choices that we make and incorporates renewable energy supply as an important part of the solution. 7624,2006,3,2,Greenhouse gas emissions from stored liquid swine manure in a cold climate,Current global warming has been linked to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Animal manure is an important source of anthropogenic GHG| mostly of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Country-specific emission estimates of these GHG can be obtained using IPCC 2000 guidelines| or suggested improvement| such as the USEPA approach for CH4 emissions| which is based on monthly air temperature (T-air). These approaches have not been validated against measured CH4 and N2O fluxes for liquid swine manure storage in cold climates due to the scarcity of year-round studies. A four-tower micrometeorological mass balance method was used at three swine farms (Arkell| Guelph| and Jarvis) in Ontario| Canada (annual T-air < 10 degrees C| from July 2000 to May 2002. Methane and N2O concentrations were measured using two tunable diode laser trace gas analyzers| and manure temperature (T-man)| redox potential (E-h) and composition were also measured. Dry matter content and Eh between sites and seasons varied from 0.6% to 3%| and -232 and -333 mV| respectively. Annual T-air was 8.4 degrees C| and T-man was on average 4 degrees C warmer. Mean N2O fluxes were not significantly different from zero| except for Jarvis with mean fluxes of 337.6 ng m(-2) s(-1) in summer and 101.8 ng m(-2)s(-1) in fall. Mean yearly N2O emission was estimated as 3.6 g head(-1) yr(-1)| and was lower than the IPCC-based emission factor (EF) of 17 g head(-1) yr(-1). Our data suggests that N2O emissions from non-aerated liquid swine manure storage could be ignored in GHG inventories. Mean monthly CH4 fluxes obtained from half-hourly data varied between 4.6 x 10(-3) and 1.05 mgm(-2)s(-1) (number of measurements per month = 25-562). Measured CH4 emissions from May to October were mostly larger| and from January to April were lower than values predicted using the USEPA approach. Use of Tman improved monthly CH4 emission prediction using the USEPA approach compared to T-air with a lower limit of 7.5 degrees C (r(2) = 0.64 vs. 0.355). The methane conversion factor derived from measured fluxes was 0.23| comparable to the USEPA derived values of 0.22-0.25| but much lower than the IPCC recommended value for cold climates (0.39). (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1603,2006,2,3,Growth and physiological responses of canola (Brassica napus) to three components of global climate change: temperature| carbon dioxide and drought,Elevated CO(2) appears to be a significant factor in global warming| which will likely lead to drought conditions in many areas. Few studies have considered the interactive effects of higher CO(2)| temperature and drought on plant growth and physiology. We grew canola (Brassica napus cv. 45H72) plants under lower (22/18 degrees C) and higher (28/24 degrees C) temperature regimes in controlled environment chambers at ambient (370 mu mol mol(-1)) and elevated (740 mu mol mol(-1)) CO(2) levels. One half of the plants were watered to field capacity and the other half at wilting point. In three separate experiments| we determined growth| various physiological parameters and content of abscisic acid (ABA)| indole-3-acetic acid and ethylene. Drought-stressed plants grown under higher temperature at ambient CO(2) had decreased stem height and diameter| leaf number and area| dry matter| leaf area ratio| shoot/root weight ratio| net CO(2) assimilation and chlorophyll fluorescence. However| these plants had increased specific leaf weight| leaf weight ratio and chlorophyll concentration. Elevated CO(2) generally had the opposite effect| and partially reversed the inhibitory effects of higher temperature and drought on leaf dry weight accumulation. This study showed that higher temperature and drought inhibit many processes but elevated CO(2) partially mitigate some adverse effects. As expected| drought stress increased ABA but higher temperature inhibited the ability of plants to produce ABA in response to drought. 1657,2006,2,4,Growth responses of two dominant C4 grass species to altered water availability,Identifying key ecophysiological traits that differ among dominant plant species and can be linked to species-specific responses to drought would improve our ability to forecast community and ecosystem responses to global climate change. The mesic grasslands of the central plains of North America are dominated by two C-4 grass species| Andropogon gerardii and Sorghastrum nutans| which purportedly differ in their tolerance of water stress. Individuals of these two species were grown in the field under rain-out shelters and subjected to wet (watered every 2-3 d) or dry (repeatedly subjected to wilting before watering) soil moisture regimes. A range of ecophysiological traits potentially important for tolerating water stress were concurrently measured. Although few traits differed between the species in the wet treatment| several traits were identified in the dry treatment that may enable A. gerardii to better tolerate drought. These were greater allocation to roots| reduced allocation to flowering| more rapid leaf turnover| and more rapid recovery of photosynthesis after wilting. The latter two traits may be particularly important for coping with increased variability in rainfall regimes in the future and are consistent with recently documented responses of A. gerardii to experimental increases in soil moisture variability. 7674,2006,2,4,Habitat-specific responses in the flowering phenology and seed set of alpine plants to climate variation: implications for global-change impacts,The timing of the snowmelt is a crucial factor in determining the phenological schedule of alpine plants. A long-term monitoring of snowmelt regimes in a Japanese alpine area revealed that the onset of the snowmelt season has been accelerated during the last 17 years in early snowmelt sites but that such a trend has not been detected in late snowmelt sites. This indicates that the global warming effect on the snowmelt pattern may be site-specific. The flowering phenology of fellfield plants in an exposed wind-blown habitat was consistent between an unusually warm year (1998) and a normal year (2001). In contrast| the flowering occurrence of snowbed plants varied greatly between the years depending on the snowmelt time. There was a large number of flowering species in the fellfield community from mid- to late to late June and from mid- to late July. The flowering peak of an early-melt snowbed plant community was in the middle of the flowering season and that of a late-melt snowbed community was in the early flowering season. These habitat-specific phenological patterns were consistent between 1998 and 2001. The effects of the variation in flowering timing on seed-set success were evaluated for an entomophilous snowbed herb| Peucedanum multivittatum| along the snowmelt gradient during a 5-year period. When flowering occurred prior to early August| mean temperature during the flowering season positively influenced the seed set. When flowering occurred later than early August| however| the plants enjoyed high seed-set success irrespective of temperature conditions if frost damage was absent. These observations are probably explained based on the availability of pollinators| which depends not only on ambient temperature but also on seasonal progress. These results suggest that the effects of climate change on biological interaction may vary depending on the specific habitat in the alpine ecosystem in which diverse snowmelt patterns create complicated seasonality for plants within a very localized area. 7432,2006,2,4,Hailstorm damage promotes aspen invasion into grassland,Global warming is widely thought to promote the dominance of grasslands over woody vegetation| and shift the location of ecotones. In contrast| forest vegetation along the northern edge of the North American Great Plains has migrated southward over the past century into areas dominated by native grassland. Because climate change is also predicted to increase storm frequency and intensity| we quantified the impacts of an intense hailstorm on woody and herbaceous species in native grassland in the northern Great Plains of North America. The hailstorm disturbance killed or damaged mature stems of the dominant tree| aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.)| but damaged aspen stands subsequently invaded ca. 10 m into neighbouring grassland. Damaged aspen stands also produced up to 20-fold more new stems having 67-fold higher total biomass compared with relatively undisturbed stands. Grasses and lichens suffered much higher rates of biomass removal (60%-76%) than did shrubs (6%-8%) immediately following the storm. The disturbance-mediated recruitment of clonal woody plants| and the unexpected sensitivity of grasses and lichens to this disturbance| may contribute to the counterintuitive expansion of trees into grasslands under a regime of increased storm frequency that is not predicted by simple ecosystem responses to warming. 1766,2006,3,2,Hazardous emissions| global climate change and environmental precautions,It has been recognized worldwide that the utilization of an enormous amount of fossil fuel has created various adverse effects on the environment| including acid rain and global warming. An increase in average global temperatures of approximately 0.56 K has been measured over the past century. This increase is called global climate change or global warming. The gases with three or more atoms that have higher heat capacities than those of O-2 and N-2 cause the greenhouse effect. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a main greenhouse gas associated with global climate change. Nitrous oxide (N2O)| chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)| methane (CH4) are other important greenhouse gases. Collectively| they are projected to contribute| directly| about as much potential global warming over the next 60 years as CO2. Three trace gases| HFCs| PFCs| and SF6| would be regulated under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol because of their global warming potential and for their potential growth of concentrations in the atmosphere. HFCs have been widely approved as substitutes for CFCs. 7679,2006,3,3,HCCI: a combustion for the future?,The current success of the diesel engine is undoubtedly linked to the remarkable trade-off between performance and fuel economy that this offers to customers. Therefore| the necessary reduction of tail pipe pollutant emissions| such as nitrogen oxides and soot| must not threaten this contribution to reducing the global warming effect by unacceptable after treatment costs. By achieving a low temperature lean combustion| the HCCI allows generation of a very small amount of particles and NOx and therefore may avoid the need of a NOx trap for the main vehicle applications. Its success depends on the ability to control noise and hydrocarbon emissions at part load as well as to allow high power and torque densities. The aims of this paper are to show clearly how the injection strategy could have a positive effect on the engine results and to point Out the main difficulties which are still to be solved. 7617,2006,2,4,Hedonic pricing of climate change impacts to households in Great Britain,This study investigates the amenity value of climate to British households. By using the hedonic price approach| the marginal willingness to pay for small changes in climate variables is derived. Various indices of temperature and precipitation are used including means| ranges| extremes and January and July averages. We specify one hedonic regression including information on house prices and wage data for 755 Posttowns and found the model containing January and July averages of temperature and precipitation most appropriate. The estimates suggest that British people would typically prefer higher temperatures in January. Increased precipitation in January is likely to reduce welfare. Changes in temperature and precipitation in July are not significant. Limited global warming| with a more pronounced effect of temperature increases compared to higher precipitation levels during winter months| might thus benefit British households. 7268,2006,2,4,Herbivory and plant growth rate determine the success of El Nino Southern Oscillation-driven tree establishment in semiarid South America,While climatic extremes are predicted to increase with global warming| we know little about the effect of climatic variability on biome distribution. Here| we show that rainy El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can enhance tree recruitment in the arid and semiarid ecosystems of north-central Chile and northwest Peru. Tree-ring studies in natural populations revealed that rainy El Nino episodes have triggered forest regeneration in Peru. Field experiments indicate that tree seedling recruitment in Chile is much less successful than in Peru due mostly to larger mortality caused by herbivores. The dramatic impact of herbivores in Chile was derived from the combined result of slower plant growth and the presence of exotic herbivores (European rabbits and hares). The interplay of herbivory and climatic effects we demonstrated implies that rainy ENSO events may represent 'windows of opportunity' for forest recovery if herbivore pressure is minimized at the right moment. 7599,2006,2,4,Heterogeneity of coral skeletons isotopic compositions during the 1998 bleaching event,The vulnerability of coral reefs to climate change| Such as regional warming| became fully evident during the strong 1997-1998 El Nino event| This El Nino episode was associated with elevated sea-surface temperatures and caused mass mortality throughout many of the world's coral reefs. We analyzed the isotopic manifestation of this event in six Porites sp. coral skeletons from different localities in a small atoll (Alphonse) at the Seychelles Island. The aim was to validate the use of coral stable isotope compositions as recorders of such events in the past. The coupling between local-scale environment and global warming was weaker then expected| with regional warming being evident only when data from five colonies were averaged. Local conditions had a large effect on the isotopic compositions of coral skeletons. We conclude that future paleoclimate reconstructions| especially those attempts to identify past El Nino events| must be based on more than a single coral record. Moreover| the strong effect of local habitat on the isotopic composition of Porites sp. has to be considered when interpreting delta C-13 and delta O-18 records. 7532,2006,2,4,Heterotrophic plasticity and resilience in bleached corals,Mass coral bleaching events caused by elevated seawater temperatures(1|2) have resulted in extensive coral mortality throughout the tropics over the past few decades(3|4). With continued global warming| bleaching events are predicted to increase in frequency and severity| causing up to 60% coral mortality globally within the next few decades(4-6). Although some corals are able to recover and to survive bleaching(7|8)| the mechanisms underlying such resilience are poorly understood. Here we show that the coral host has a significant role in recovery and resilience. Bleached and recovering Montipora capitata (branching) corals met more than 100% of their daily metabolic energy requirements by markedly increasing their feeding rates and CHAR (per cent contribution of heterotrophically acquired carbon to daily animal respiration)| whereas Porites compressa (branching) and Porites lobata (mounding) corals did not. These findings suggest that coral species with high-CHAR capability during bleaching and recovery| irrespective of morphology| will be more resilient to bleaching events over the long term| could become the dominant coral species on reefs| and may help to safeguard affected reefs from potential local and global extinction. 7438,2006,2,4,High potential for increase in CO(2) flux from forest soil surface due to global warming in cooler areas of Japan,The CO(2) fluxes from the forest floor were measured using a closed chamber method at 26 sites from 26 degrees N Lat. to 44 degrees N Lat. in Japan. Seasonal fluctuation in CO(2) flux was found to correlate exponentially with seasonal fluctuation in soil temperature at each site. Estimate of annual carbon emission from the forest floor ranged from 3.1 to 10.6 Mg C ha(-1). The emission rate of soil-organic-carbon-derived CO(2)| obtained by incubation of intact soil samples| correlated closely with the carboxymethylcellulase (CMCase) activity in the soil. The sum of cool-water soluble polysaccharides| hot-water soluble polysaccharides| hemicellulose| and cellulose content in the soil was greater at the sites with low CMCase activity than that at the sites with high CMCase activity. Because the sites in cooler-climate sites had a high content of easily decomposable soil organic carbon and organic litter| the potential increase in CO(2) efflux from forest floor with increasing soil temperature would be greater in cooler-climate sites. 7639,2006,3,4,History of vacuum circuit breakers and recent developments in Japan,Vacuum circuit breakers (VCBs) have been developed and widely applied in Japan to meet the requirements of increasing energy consumption and also in national security of various areas. As a result| for example| a 168 kV two break porcelain type and a 100 kA one break VCB have already appeared in the Japanese market and they are currently being exported to world-wide markets. VCBs interrupt currents in vacuum| and this means they do not exhaust dissolved gases which are sometimes harmful to the human body or cause effects on the environment. Therefore| by its nature| the recycling of materials and safety to the human body have been realized| and also no global warming effects would be expected. Energy is extremely essential and important in human daily life| and many types of circuit breakers play important roles in electrical power transmission and distribution systems to maintain the systems reliability and safety by switching the systems under several conditions. Since vacuum circuit breakers possess a lot of advantages such as high current interrupting capabilities| small size| and low cost| they will be used much more in the future| and at this moment| we believe it is very worthy to discuss and consider thoroughly future trends of VCBs. In this paper| the results of the developments in Japan will be reviewed| the reflection of the results will be stated| and the subjects of engineering in the 21st century will be discussed. These will include recycling| safeguards to the human body and the fireless nature of VCBs; and it will be demonstrated that the developmental works of VCBs are being wonderfully explored in Japan now and in the future. 1643,2006,3,2,How developing countries can engage in GHG reduction: a case study for China,It has been clearly recognized that future global climate change will limit the possibilities for sustainable development in China. To minimize these negative effects| as a practical strategy| we suggest that the Chinese government engage in international cooperation as a key contributor in the prevention of global warming. This suggestion results from numerical estimations of China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends accompanied with economic growth up to 2100. The results show that China's gross domestic product (GDP)| measured in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP)| may overtake the sum of the GDPs of the United States and Canada in 2020. It is predicted that GDP per capita may reach US$20|000 and $80|000 in 2050 and 2100| respectively; meanwhile| CO(2) emissions in China will increase from 6.6 billion tons (in carbon equivalent units) in 1990 to 54.6 billion tons in 2100. This means that the global peak concentration of GHG cannot be practically reduced without significant contributions from China. For international cooperation in mitigating global climate change| we introduce a new option| "per-capita emission restricted by assigned amount|" as an accounting rule for GHG reduction. This baseline classifies global CO(2) reduction actions into three categories: compulsory reduction| self-imposed reduction| and voluntary reduction. We suggest that China contribute to world CO(2) reduction according to the following timetable: voluntary reduction until 2012| self-imposed reduction until 2020| and compulsory reduction from 2020. The simulation results also indicate that China can benefit from this strategy in terms of improvements in its domestic economy and environment| for instance| by reducing fossil fuel consumption and the emission of pollutants. 7338,2006,2,4,How do climate warming and plant species richness affect water use in experimental grasslands?,Climate warming and plant species richness loss have been the subject of numerous experiments| but studies on their combined impact are lacking. Here we studied how both warming and species richness loss affect water use in grasslands| while identifying interactions between these global changes. Experimental ecosystems containing one| three or nine grassland species from three functional groups were grown in 12 sunlit| climate-controlled chambers (2.25 m(2) ground area) in Wilrijk| Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated)| while the other half were warmed by 3 degrees C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities| so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration (ET) was higher. After an initial ET increase in response to warming| stomatal regulation and lower above-ground productivity resulted in ET values comparable with those recorded in the unheated communities. As a result of the decreased biomass production| water use efficiency (WUE) was reduced by warming. Higher complementarity and the improved competitive success of water-efficient species in mixtures led to an increased WUE in multi-species communities as compared to monocultures| regardless of the induced warming. However| since the WUE of individual species was affected in different ways by higher temperatures| compositional changes in mixtures seem likely under climatic change due to shifts in competitiveness. In conclusion| while increased complementarity and selection of water-efficient species ensured more efficient water use in mixtures than monocultures| global warming will likely decrease this WUE| and this may be most pronounced in species-rich communities. 7391,2006,5,4,How much did climate force the Messinian salinity crisis? Quantified climatic conditions from pollen records in the Mediterranean region,The latest Miocene (5.96 to 5.33 Ma) is characterised by an outstanding event: the desiccation of the Mediterranean Sea (Messinian salinity crisis). It has been suggested that this was caused by a tectonic event| with no climatic change playing a role in desiccation. Quantifying the climate of the region during this period will help support or refute this hypothesis. An effective method for reconstructing the climate from Neogene pollen data is the "Climatic Amplitude Method" based on the modem climatic requirements of plants to interpret fossil data. It has been conceived especially for periods devoid of modem vegetation analogue. Twenty Messinian to Lower Zanclean pollen sequences are now available in the peri-Mediterranean region. Most of them do not cover the whole Messinian interval| particularly those along the Mediterranean shorelines where sedimentation was interrupted during the sea's desiccation. In contrast| sedimentation was almost continuous in such areas as the Atlantic side of Morocco| along the Adriatic coast (including the Po Valley)| and to a lesser extent the Black Sea. The Mediterranean sites nonetheless provide a reliable if not a discontinuous record of vegetation variability in time and space. A first examination of the pollen diagrams reveals a high regional variability controlled by local conditions| and throughout the interval a southward increase in herb pollen frequency in contrast to the tree pollen frequency. This indicates that open and probably dry environments existed in the southern Mediterranean region prior to| during and after the salinity crisis. Trees developed in areas close to mountains such as in the Po Valley| in Cerdanya and in the Black Sea region. Most variations observed in the pollen diagrams are constrained by fluctuations of Pinus pollen amounts| indicating eustatie variations. Climatic quantification from pollen data does not show obvious climatic changes due to the desiccation of the Mediterranean Sea| especially in the dry and warm southwestern Mediterranean area (Sicily| southern Spain and North Africa). At Maccarone| along the Adriatic Sea| a decrease in temperatures of the coldest month and| less importantly| a decrease in mean annual temperatures| corresponding to a drastic vegetation change| are reconstructed. These temperature variations are assumed to be controlled by regional environmental changes (massive arrival of waters in this basin) rather than to reflect cooling| because some authors link the second phase of evaporite deposition to a period of global warming. Some migrations of plants probably occurred as a response to Mediterranean desiccation. But the climatic contrast which has probably existed at that time between the central Mediterranean and the peripheral areas might be amplified. Climatic reconstruction from pollen data in the western Mediterranean area shows that climate is not the direct cause of the Mediterranean desiccation| as the Mediterranean region had experienced continuously high evaporation long before the crisis. Therefore the main factor leading to this event seems to be the successive closures of the Betic and Rifian corridors| isolating the Mediterranean Sea from the Atlantic Ocean. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7611,2006,4,3,How northern peatlands influence the Earth's radiative budget: Sustained methane emission versus sustained carbon sequestration,Northern peatlands sequester carbon and emit methane| and thus have both cooling and warming impacts on the climate system through their influence on atmospheric burdens of CO(2) and CH(4). These competing impacts are usually compared by the global warming potential (GWP) methodology| which determines the equivalent CO(2) annual emission that would have the same integrated radiative forcing impact over a chosen time horizon as the annual CH(4) emission. We use a simple model of CH(4) and CO(2) pools in the atmosphere to extend this analysis to quantify the dynamics| over years to millennia| of the net radiative forcing impact of a peatland that continuously emits CH(4) and sequesters C. We find that for observed ratios of CH(4) emission to C sequestration (roughly 0.1-2 mol mol(-1))| the radiative forcing impact of a northern peatland begins| at peatland formation| as a net warming that peaks after about 50 years| remains a diminishing net warming for the next several hundred to several thousand years| depending on the rate of C sequestration| and thereafter is or will be an ever increasing net cooling impact. We then use the model to evaluate the radiative forcing impact of various changes in CH(4) and/or CO(2) emissions. In all cases| the impact of a change in CH(4) emissions dominates the radiative forcing impact in the first few decades| and then the impact of the change in CO(2) emissions slowly exerts its influence. 7673,2006,4,4,How to analyze long-term insect population dynamics under climate change: 50-year data of three insect pests in paddy fields,We can precisely predict the future dynamics of populations only if we know the underlying mechanism of population dynamics. Long-term data are important for the elucidation of such mechanisms. In this article we analyze the 50-year dynamics of annual light-trap catches of three insect pest species living in paddy fields in Japan: the rice stem borer| Chilo suppressalis (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae); the green rice leafhopper| Nephotettix cincticeps (Uhler) (Hemiptera: Deltocephalidae); and the small brown planthopper| Laodelphax striatellus (Fallen) (Hemiptera: Delphacidae). We separate the long-term dynamics into two components by using locally weighted scatterplot smoothing: (1) the underlying dynamics of populations| and (2) the influence of the past changes in the environment. The former component is analyzed by response surface analysis and vector autoregression to evaluate the nonlinearity of density-dependence and the inter-specific influence of density| respectively. On the basis of these analyses| we perform the state-space model analyses. The state-space model selected by Akaike's information criterion indicates that the observed number of light-trap catches of C. suppressalis and N. cincticeps in summer increases with increasing temperatures in the previous winter. It also indicates that the influence of temperature is not carried over to the next year. We utilize the selected model to predict the impact of global warming on these species| by substituting the temperature predicted by a general circulation model. 7628,2006,3,2,How to oxidize atmospheric CH4? A challenge for the future,Methane is an active Greenhouse effect gas whose concentration will likely increase in the future. The possible destabilisation of CH4 clathrates (hydrates) due to anthropogenic climate warming| and the resulting outgasing of methane| could lead to a major increase of the global Greenhouse effect| with dramatic consequences for Humanity. For these reasons| the study of possible countermeasures should be actively considered. Here| we suggest taking advantage of the thermodynamic instability of CH4 in air| and search for ways to oxidize it. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 7385,2006,3,4,Hybrid LCC of appliances with different energy efficiency,Goal| Scope and Background. This paper is concerned with a life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCQ by the use of the waste input-output (WIO) quantity- and price model of air conditioners with different energy efficiency at the use phase (high-end| lowend and average models) that were available in Japan as of winter 2002. The functional unit is an air conditioner of the 2.5kW type that is used for 10 years| and then subjected to an end-of-life (EoL) process that is consistent with the Japanese law on the recycling of appliances. Methods. This is the first simultaneous application of the WIO methodology to an LCA and LCC over the entire life-cycle of a product including the use phase| and represents a methodological extension (in the sense of considering the use phase) and integration (in the sense of a simultaneous application) of previous studies by us (Kondo and Nakamura| Int J LCA 2004| Nakamura and Kondo| Ecol Econ 2006). The main body of data is provided by the WIO table for the year 2000| an update of the previous table for 1995 that was used in the above WIO studies. Compared with the WIO table for 1995 that consisted of only about 80 industry sectors| the current one consists of about 400 industry sectors| and includes air conditioner as a separate sector. The data on the purchase price and efficiency of air conditioners indicate wide variations: the cheapest one (the lowend model) costs half of the most expensive one (the high-end model)| but its efficiency is about half of the latter. Results and Discussion. When the cost in the use and EoL phases is included| the low-end model becomes the most expensive one| and the high-end model with the highest purchase cost the least expensive. This reversal of the relative cost levels is attributed to the difference in the efficiency in the use phase. A sensitivity analysis indicates that a reduction of the electricity price in the use phase by about 40% does not alter the significant superiority of the high-end model over the low-end model. In spite of the largest amount of input in the production phase| the high-end model performs the best in terms of both global warming potential (GWP) and landfill| while the low-end model performs the worst. The use phase generates the largest amount of waste for landfill across the three models| the largest component of which is flyash generated from coal firing power plants. A possible internalization of externality in the form of carbon tax was found to work in favor of the high-end model. The cost advantage of the high-end model| however| is sensitive to the rate of discounting of future costs: discounting at 15% diminishes its advantage over the low-end model. Recommendation and Perspective. The results indicate the effectiveness of the pricing based on the life cycle cost for achieving sustainability| that is| for promoting the shift of the demand away from appliances with low environmental performance to the one with higher environmental performance. Acceptance by society of pricing based on life cycle costing would require| among other things| an economywide standardization of the LCC concept (in a manner analogous to ISO-LCA) that can be used complementary to ISO-LCA. 7671,2006,2,4,Hydrogeological changes in coastal aquifers due to sea level rise,Global warming and climatic changes can lead to sea level rise (SLR) of dozens of cms over up-coming decades| along with groundwater permanent reserve losses (PRL). This study focuses on understanding the processes and estimating groundwater losses. A case study for such phenomena is Israel's Coastal aquifer. PRL estimation methodology is based upon a simple hydrogeological conceptual model. The results lead to estimation of two main components of an aquifer's PRL| and to key factors that can enhance or mitigate these losses. Such recommended measures as high-resolution topographic mapping and improved monitoring of sea level have been noted. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7415,2006,4,4,Identification and estimation of continuous-time| data-based mechanistic (DBM) models for environmental systems,Initially| the paper provides an introduction to the main aspects of existing time-domain methods for identifying linear continuous-time models from discrete-time data and shows how one of these methods has been applied to the identification and estimation of a model for the transportation and dispersion of a pollutant in a river. It then introduces a widely applicable class of new| nonlinear| State Dependent Parameter (SDP) models. Finally| the paper describes how this SDP approach has been used to identify| estimate and control a nonlinear differential equation model of global carbon cycle dynamics and global warming. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7317,2006,3,4,Identifying environmental improvement opportunities for newsprint production using life cycle assessment (LCA),LCA is used for the assessment of opportunities to improve the environmental performance of newsprint production. A cradle-to-gate LCA baseline model for the production of I admt newsprint from TMP and DIP was developed| and used to examine the impact from increased DIP production capacity and co-generation. It was found that a 20-40% reduction in Global Warming Potential could be achieved| and the fuel mix for power generation was found to be a critical factor. 7371,2006,2,4,Immediate and short-term responses of bird and mammal assemblages to a subalpine wildfire in the Snowy Mountains| Australia,Over 35 days in January-February 2003| wildfires burnt across much of the subalpine/alpine landscape of south-eastern Australia| including about 70% of the land above 1500 in in the Snowy Mountains. At the time of the fire| studies of two subalpine faunal assemblages were being undertaken. The opportunity to resurvey the assemblages was taken in order to examine the immediate impact of fire in an environment where it is uncommon but predicted to occur increasingly with global warming. A study area in the Whites River Valley| where the number of bird species was counted monthly from 1996 to 2003| and weekly in late winter-spring from 2000 to 2003| was burnt in one fire. As well as the expected decrease in the number of individual birds| the fire resulted in an immediate decrease in the number of bird species| unlike in previously studied montane forest| with only the regularly wintering species plus the olive whistler and the ground-feeding flame robin remaining. During the post-winter avian immigration| few regular spring migrants appeared on burnt sites despite their nearby presence on the unburnt side of the valley. Five of six small mammal trapping grid's were burnt. As with fires at lower altitudes| there was an immediate reduction in mammal numbers. on burnt grids following the fire| but in addition| one species| Mastacomys fuscus| declined further in the ensuing 2 months both on burnt and unburnt sites. Numbers of Antechinus swainsonii and Rattus fuscipes stabilized until autumn/winter when there was a further decline due to the unavailability of subnivean space to allow winter foraging| allied with a concentration of fox predation on areas still carrying populations of small mammals. 7572,2006,2,2,Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by eight GCMs,The response of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) to a transient increase in future anthropogenic radiative forcing is investigated by multi-model global warming experiments. Most models show that| in Asia| the summer monsoon rainfall increases significantly with global warming. On the other hand| the future change in the large-scale flow indicates a weakening of the ASM circulation. Enhanced moisture transport over the Asian summer monsoon region| associated with the increased moisture source from the warmer Indian Ocean| leads to a larger moisture flux convergence| which is responsible for the intensification of the mean rainfall. Pronounced warming over the tropics in the middle-to-upper troposphere causes a reduction in the meridional thermal gradient in the Asian region| which is consistent with the weakened monsoon circulation and eastward shift of the Walker circulation. 7278,2006,2,3,Impact of climate change on London's transport network,There is much discussion about the contribution of transport to global warming| but what about the impact of our changing climate on transport modes| infrastructure and passengers? This paper examines the potential impacts of climate change on London's transport systems| based on the findings of a research study undertaken for the London Climate Change Partnership between 2004 and 2005. Recent extreme weather events have had significant impact on London's transport systems; for example| the effect of high temperatures on London Underground and major flooding of roads and railway stations. Scenarios of climate change show that London will experience hotter summers| wetter winters| more intense rainfall and a rise in sea level over the coming century. This poses a number of risks to the operation and use of transport systems in a city where 26 million trips are made every day. The study focuses on four case studies. Each case study assesses: the issue now| drawing on current weather-related effects; how climate change will affect the future; the action already underway in London to address climate impacts; and options and timescales for adaptation. It is apparent that most risks already exist climate change will simply make them worse. With forward planning| successful and cost-effective adaptation can be achieved. 7327,2006,2,4,Impact of climate change on river discharge projected by multimodel ensemble,This study investigates the projections of river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world during the twenty-first century simulated by 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. To reduce model bias and uncertainty| a weighted ensemble mean (WEM) is used for multimodel projections. Although it is difficult to reproduce the present river discharge in any single model| the WEM results produce more accurate reproduction for most rivers| except those affected by anthropogenic water usage. At the end of the twenty-first century| the annual mean precipitation| evaporation| and runoff increase in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere| southern to eastern Asia| and central Africa. In contrast| they decrease in the Mediterranean region| southern Africa| southern North America| and Central America. Although the geographical distribution of the changes in precipitation and runoff tends to coincide with that in the river discharge| it should be emphasized that the change in runoff at the upstream region affects the river flow in the downstream region. In high-latitude rivers (Amur| Lena| MacKenzie| Ob| Yenisei| and Yukon)| the discharge increases| and the peak timing shifts earlier because of an earlier snowmelt caused by global warming. Discharge tends to decrease for the rivers in Europe to the Mediterranean region (Danube| Euphrates| and Rhine)| and southern United Sates (Rio Grande). 1702,2006,2,3,Impact of climate change on the regional hydrology - Scenario-based modelling studies in the German Rhine catchment,The aim of the study is an impact analysis of global climate change on regional hydrology with special emphasis on discharge conditions and floods. The investigations are focussed on the major part of the German Rhine catchment with a drainage area of approx. 110|000 km(2). This area is subdivided into 23 subcatchments. In a first step| the hydrological model HBV-D serves to simulate runoff conditions under present climate for the individual subbasins. Simulated| large scale atmospheric fields| provided by two different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and driven by the emission scenario IS95a ("business as usual") are then used as input to the method of expanded downscaling (EDS). EDS delivers local time series of scenario climate as input to HBV-D. In a final step| the investigations are focussed on the assessment of possible future runoff conditions under the impact of climate change. The study indicates a potential increase in precipitation| mean runoff and flood discharge for small return intervals. However| the uncertainty range that originates from the application of the whole model chain and two different GCMs is high. This leads to high cumulative uncertainties| which do not allow conclusions to be drawn on the development of future extreme floods. 1632,2006,3,3,Impact of electric power generation on green house gas emissions in Europe: Russia| Greece| Italy and views of the EU Power Plant Supply Industry - a critical analysis,This paper analyses the impact of electric power generation on greenhouse gas emissions in Europe (including the Asian part of Russia) with reference to Russia| Greece| Italy| and views of the EU power plant supply industry in respect of the Kyoto protocol. The outlook of power industry development in Russia in the 21st century is first considered and its impact on Russia's greenhouse gas emissions is examined. Forecasts for developing Russia's economy and electric power industry in the first half of the 21st century are presented. Possible structural change in the electric power industry in Russia together with dynamic changes Of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in power plants are examined. It is shown that CO2 emissions from fuel combustion at power plants in Russia may increase 2.7-fold in 50 years. Calculations depict that specific CO2 emissions in Asian Russia exceed greatly that of the European part. It then reviews measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions in Greece. Impact of the currently adopted measures and initiatives to reduce emissions in the Greek energy system for the period up to 2030 is discussed with emphasis on the current decade. Under the scenario for environmental policy| the additional commitments and measures to limit CO2 emissions towards the Kyoto targets are discussed. The paper summarizes a possible Italian strategy for implementing Kyoto protocol mechanisms to meet commitments of the EU Emission Trading Draft Directive| the Italian strategy in the Ministerial documents| and final considerations. It then examines clean power generation technology for the 21st Century and gives a perspective from the EU power plant supply industry. A perspective is presented with respect to impact of global climate change on product development strategy. Fossil fuel based power generation technologies will continue to play an important part of the energy mix in the foreseeable future and different parts of the world will require different technologies to meet their local specific requirements. It will be necessary to continue to develop clean technologies and to promote their use world-wide. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7413,2006,2,2,Impact of global warming on ENSO variability using the coupled GISS GCM/ZC model,This study uses a hybrid coupled model (referred to as the general-circulation model (GCM)/Zebiak/Cane (ZC) model)| which consists of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies' (GISS) Atmospheric general-circulation model (AGCM) coupled to the oceanic component of the ZC intermediate model to assess the impact of global warming on El Nino behavior| with and without the influence of heat introduced from the subtropical Pacific (via subtropical cell (STC) pathway). The baseline GCM/ZC model produces El Nino variability with a two year periodicity and an amplitude of approximately half the magnitude of observed El Nino. The GCM/ZC model also produces an appropriate atmospheric global response to El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO) as shown by composites of 500 hPa heights| sea-level pressure (SLP)| 200 hPa wind| and precipitation during El Nino and La Nina periods. To evaluate the importance of global warming on ENSO variability| 2x CO2 and 4x CO2 transient simulations were done increasing the atmospheric CO2 one percent per year| then extending the runs for an additional 70 years to obtain equilibrium climates for each run. An additional set of global-warming simulations was run after including a STC parameterization generated by computing 5-year running means of the sea-surface temperature (SST) difference between a transient run and the 1 x CO2 GCM/ZC run at the anticipated subduction zones (160-130 degrees W| 20-40 degrees N and 20-44 degrees S| 160-130 degrees W) and adding it to the base of the equatorial mixed-layer of the ZC model with a time lag of 15 years. This effectively alters the vertical temperature gradient of the ZC model| which affects SST via upwelling. Two features of the GCM/ZC response to global warming are emphasized. Firstly| the inclusion of the STC results in a major redistribution of heat across the equatorial Pacific| leading to an El Nino-like response in the final equilibrium solution with less variability about the mean. The global warming aspect due to the El Nino-like response results in a positive feedback on global warming| which causes a higher global surface-air temperature (SAT) than identical transient simulations without inclusion of the STC. Secondly| including the STC effect produces a far greater magnitude of global ENSO-like impact because of the reduction of| or even the reversal of| the equatorial Pacific longitudinal SST gradient. The implications of such an extreme climate scenario are discussed. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. 7610,2006,2,4,Impact of global warming on the East Asian winter monsoon as revealed by nine coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs,Impact of global warming on the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) is studied using nine coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Models are mostly successful in simulating the basic features of the EAWM with varied location of monsoon northwesterlies ( NW). Under the global warming scenario| most models show a weakening of the EAWM accompanied by a strong anticyclonic anomaly over the North Pacific corresponding to a weakened and/or the northern shift of the Aleutian Low (AL). Response in Sea Level Pressure (SLP) also shows the weakening of both the AL and the Siberian High (SH)| which gives rise to a weakened pressure gradient along the eastern coast of the Eurasian continent. Among other factors| weakening of the tropical local Hadley circulation was found to substantially weaken the East Asian Jet (EAJ) and the resultant EAWM. 7678,2006,2,3,Impact of global warming rate on permafrost degradation,The IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity is used to analyze the sensitivity of the area of continuous potential permafrost S (cont) to the rate of global temperature variation T (gl) in experiments with greenhouse-gas increases in the atmosphere. The influence of the internal variability of the model on the results is reduced by conducting ensemble runs with different initial conditions and analysis of the ensemble means. Idealized experiments with a linear or exponential dependence of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have revealed an increase in the magnitude of the temperature-sensitivity parameter of the area of continuous potential permafrost| k (cont) (= S(cont| 0)(-1)/ dS (cont)/dT (gl)| where S (cont| 0) is the present value of S (cont)). With a decrease in the linear trend coefficient of T (gl) from about 3 to about 2 K/100 yr| this parameter varies from approximately -0.2 to -0.4 K(-1). With an even slower change in global temperature| k (cont) virtually does not vary and remains close to the value obtained from paleoreconstructions of the past warm epochs. Such a dependence of k (cont) on the rate of global warming is related mainly to the fact that the more rapid increase in T (gl) leads to a slower response over high-latitude land. The contribution from changes in the annual temperature cycle| though comparable in the order of magnitude| is about one-third as large as the contribution from the variation of the latitudinal structure of the response of annual mean temperature. The total reduction in the annual cycle of temperature during warming partly compensates for the effect of the annual mean temperature rise| thus decreasing the magnitude of k (cont). In numerical experiments with greenhouse gas changes in accordance with SRES scenarios A2 and B2 and scenario IS92a| there is also a monotonic increase in the magnitude of the normalized parameter of temperature sensitivity of the area of continuous permafrost with a decrease in the growth rate of global temperature. For scenarios A2-CO2| IS92a-GHG| IS92a-CO2| B2-GHG| and B2-CO2| its value is almost indistinguishable from the steady-state asymptotic value of -0.4 K(-1). For A2-GHG| the magnitude of k (cont) turns out to be far less (k (cont) approximate to -0.3 K(-1)). 7500,2006,4,4,Impact of regional SST anomalies on the Indian monsoon response to global warming in the CNRM climate model,While transient climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models undoubtedly represent the most comprehensive toot for studying the climate response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs)| less computationally expensive time-slice experiments with atmospheric GCMs are still useful to test the robustness of the projected climate change. In the present study| three sets of time-slice experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) are compared to a reference climate scenario obtained with the Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Coupled Climate Model (CCM). The main objective is to assess the sensitivity of the monsoon response to the magnitude or pattern of SST anomalies in two regions where such anomalies are highly model dependent| namely| the circumpolar Southern Ocean and the tropical Pacific Ocean. On the one hand| it is shown that the regional climate anomalies predicted by the CCM can be reproduced at least qualitatively by a pair of time-slice experiments in which the present-day SST biases of the CCM are removed. On the other hand| the results indicate that the Indian monsoon response to increasing amounts of GHG is sensitive to regional uncertainties in the prescribed SST warming. Increasing the sea surface warming in the southern high latitudes to compensate for the weak sea ice feedback simulated by the CCM around the Antarctic has a significant influence on the regional climate change simulated over India| through a perturbation of the regional Hadley circulation. Prescribing zonal mean rather than El Nino-like SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific has an even stronger impact on the monsoon response| through a modification of the Walker circulation. These results suggest that both deficiencies in simulating present-day climate (even at high latitudes) and uncertainties in the SST patterns caused by enhanced GHG concentrations (especially in the tropical Pacific) are major obstacles for predicting climate change at the regional scale. 7277,2006,3,3,Impact of transport policies on energy use and emissions,There are numerous mid-sized cities in the developing world and most of them lack effective urban management and transportation policies. Though city efforts to reduce global warming potential (GWP) emissions may be low in the global context| effective transportation policies in cities will have obvious results. Taking the Kathmandu Valley as a case study| this paper makes an attempt to analyse the implication of different transportation policies for reducing vehicular emissions and energy consumption. This paper estimates and analyses current and future trends of energy demand and environmental emissions| especially CO2 and PM10 from passenger road transportation in the Kathmandu Valley. The study is based on the primary data collected at the busiest and longest inner city road. It uses the long range energy alternatives planning system framework to construct future scenarios up to 2025. It analyses future scenario implications mainly dealing with the introduction of trolley buses| promotion of public transportation| discouraging private vehicles and low occupancy public vehicles| increasing vehicular speed| and other transportation policies. The study estimated that the 637 million passenger-kilometres traveled in the study route during 2004 resulted in 34.8 million kg of CO2 emissions. The travel demand is estimated to multiply by 7.8 with a corresponding twelve-fold increase in CO2 emissions and a ten-fold increase in total suspended particles (TSP) emissions in the study route from 2004 to 2024 under a non-intervention scenario. This scenario analysis suggests that discouraging private vehicles| thereby promoting mass transportation operated by electricity| can reduce CO2 by 43.7% and TSP by 43.8% compared with a scenario of non-intervention. In addition to transportation policies| effective land-use planning and encouragement of non-motorised transport can have more positive impacts. Since Nepal is the Himalayan Kingdom| having many glaciers and snow-fed rivers| it is in great risk of global warming. Therefore change should begin immediately.
7630,2006,2,4,Impact of warming and timing of snow melt on soil microarthropod assemblages associated with Dryas-dominated plant communities on Svalbard,Open Top Chambers (OTCs) were used to measure impacts of predicted global warming on the structure of the invertebrate community of a Dryas octopetala heath in West Spitsbergen. Results from the OTC experiment were compared with natural variation in invertebrate community structure along a snowmelt transect through similar vegetation up the adjacent hillside. Changes along this transect represent the natural response of the invertebrate community to progressively longer and potentially warmer and drier growing seasons. Using MANOVA| ANOVA| Linear Discriminant Analysis and chi(2) tests| significant differences in community composition were found between OTCs and controls and among stations along the transect. Numbers of cryptostigmatic and predatory mites tended to be higher in the warmer OTC treatment but numbers of the aphid Acyrthosiphon svalbardicum| hymenopterous parasitoids| Symphyta larvae| and weevils were higher in control plots. Most Collembola| including Hypogastrura tullbergi| Lepidocyrtus lignorum and Isotoma anglicana| followed a similar trend to the aphid| but Folsomia bisetosa was more abundant in the OTC treatment. Trends along the transect showed clear parallels with the OTC experiment. However| mite species| particularly Diapterobates notatus| tended to increase in numbers under warming| with several species collectively increasing at the earlier exposed transect stations. Overall| the results suggest that the composition and structure of Arctic invertebrate communities associated with Dryas will change significantly under global warming. 7509,2006,2,3,Implications of climate-enforced temperature increases on freshwater pico- and nanoplankton populations studied in artificial ponds during 16 months,Global warming scenarios foresee increases in air temperatures of 3-5 degrees C in Northern European regions within the next 70 years. To evaluate the potential effects of global warming on shallow eutrophic lakes| a flow-through experiment combining three temperature scenarios and two nutrient levels was conducted in 24 outdoor mesocosms. Eight mesocosms were unheated and acted as controls| while sixteen were heated - eight according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) climate scenario A2 down-scaled to regional level (2.5-4.4 degrees C| depending on season) and eight according to scenario A2+ with an additional 50% temperature increase. Half of the mesocosms were enriched with nitrogen and phosphorus to simulate increased runoff from terrestrial sources due to the increased precipitation predicted by the A2 scenario. The other half were un-enriched and received only natural nutrient input from the groundwater that fed all the mesocosms. The abundance and development pattern of the microbial communities within the mesocosms were tracked during a 16-month period. Generally| the results showed that the abundances of picoalgae| bacteria and heterotrophic nanoflagellates changed in a similar manner over time; abundances being lower in winter than in summer. Warming in itself had no effect on abundance| albeit it significantly modified the positive effect of the nutrients. Only at ambient temperatures did the whole microbial assemblage respond positively to nutrients. In the A2 scenario| only picoalgae responded to nutrients| while in the A2+ scenario all but the heterotrophic nanoflagellates showed a response. Elevated winter temperatures seemed not to be more important for the microbial assemblage than elevated summer temperatures. Our results demonstrate that the direct effects of warming were far less important than the nutrient effect. The results furthermore reveal that warming and nutrients in combination set off complex interactions. In consequence| global warming may possibly have pronounced effects on aquatic ecosystems if accompanied by increased nutrient loading. 7574,2006,2,2,Incorporating model uncertainty into attribution of observed temperature change,Optimal detection analyses have been used to determine the causes of past global warming| leading to the conclusion by the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations''. To date however| these analyses have not taken full account of uncertainty in the modelled patterns of climate response due to differences in basic model formulation. To address this current "perfect model'' assumption| we extend the optimal detection method to include| simultaneously| output from more than one GCM by introducing inter-model variance as an extra uncertainty. Applying the new analysis to three climate models we find that the effects of both anthropogenic and natural factors are detected. We find that greenhouse gas forcing would very likely have resulted in greater warming than observed during the past half century if there had not been an offsetting cooling from aerosols and other forcings. 7614,2006,3,3,Incorporation of thymol into corncob granules for reduction of odor and pathogens in feedlot cattle waste,Confined animal feeding operations can be a source of odor emissions| global warming gases| water pollution| and food contamination. Laboratory studies have indicated that plant oils with antimicrobial activity can be used to control pathogens and odor emissions from cattle and swine wastes. However| these oils are aromatic and may volatilize when applied topically. Our objectives were to evaluate the volatility of thymol from a feedlot surface and the effectiveness of topically applying thyme oil (2.5% thymol)| incorporated into corncob granules and added once per week| to control odor emissions and total coliforms in feedlot manure. In the first study| thymol either volatilized or was degraded within 28 d after topical application. In a second study| thyme oil (2.5% thymol) was incorporated into corncobs and applied to pen surfaces weekly. Manure samples from 6 locations in each pen were collected from 3 untreated and 3 thymol-corncob-treated pens (15 x 150 m; fifty 400-kg cattle/pen)| 3 times per week for 8 wk. Samples were analyzed for thymol concentration| total VFA| branched-chain VFA| aromatic compounds| and the number of Escherichia coli and total coliform bacteria. Over the 8 wk| with the exception of wk 7| the desired thymol concentration of 15 to 20 mu mol/g DM was maintained in the manure. Concentrations of VFA and branched chain-VFA increased over time in untreated and treated pens. However| the rate of VFA accumulation in treated pens (7.5 +/- 1.3 mu mol center dot g DM(-1.)wk(-1)) was less (P < 0.01) than the rate of accumulation in untreated pens (18.0 +/- 2.1 mu mol(.)g DM(-1.)wk(-1)). Likewise| the rate of branched-chain VFA accumulation in treated pens (0.31 +/- 0.04 mu mol(.)g DM(-1.)wk(-1)) was less (P < 0.01) than in untreated pens (0.55 +/- 0.06 mu mol(.)g DM(-1.)wk(-1)). The concentrations of E. coli in treated pens (2.9 +/- 1.2 x 10(5) cfu(.)g DM-1) were 91% less (P < 0.04) than in untreated pens (31.1 +/- 4.0 x 10(5) cfu(.)g DM-1). Similarly| concentrations of coliforms in treated pens (3.7 +/- 1.3 x 10(5) cfu(.)g DM-1) were 89% less (P < 0.04) than those of untreated pens (35.3 +/- 4.2 x 10(5) cfu(.)g DM-1). These results indicate that odor emissions and total coliforms can be reduced in feedlot manure with a once per week application of thymol incorporated in a granular form. However| corncobs are bulky| and other granular carriers with a greater carrying capacity for thyme oil should be explored. 1648,2006,2,4,Increase of alien and C-4 plant species in annual river bank vegetation of the River Rhine,Recent and historic releves of the annual river bank vegetation (Polygono brittingeri-Chenopodictum rubri| Chenopodium rubrum subassociation) of the middle and lower River Rhine (Germany) were evaluated with regard to their representation of alien and C| plant species. The releves evaluated covered a period of more than 50 years from the second half of the 20|h to the beginning of the 21(st) century. There was a distinct increase in the proportion of alien and C| plant species: The mean percentage of post-1492 aliens (neophytes) increased from 9.9% in 1964 to 27.5% in 2002. In the same period| the mean percentage of C-4 plants increased from 4.4% to 11.5%. In 1998 - 2002 99 alien plant species were recorded in the annual sand and gravel bank vegetation of the study area. Possible reasons for the increase of alien and C| plants may include increased trade activities and increased temperatures due to global climate change. 7713,2006,3,3,Induced technological change in a Limited Foresight optimization model,The threat of global warming calls for a major transformation of the energy system in the coming century. The treatment of technological change in energy system models is a critical challenge. Technological change may be treated as induced by climate policy or as exogenous. We investigate the importance of induced technological change (ITC) in GET-LFL| an iterative optimization model with Limited Foresight that incorporates Learning-by-doing. Scenarios for stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 400| 450| 500 and 550 ppm are studied. We find that the introduction of ITC reduces the total net present value of the abatement cost over this century by 3-9% compared to a case where technological learning is exogenous. Technology specific policies which force the introduction of fuel cell cars and solar PV in combination with ITC reduce the costs further by 4-7% and lead to significantly different technological solutions| primarily in the transport sector. 7693,2006,3,3,Induction of enhanced methane oxidation in compost: Temperature and moisture response,Landfilling is one of the most common ways of municipal solid waste disposal. Degradation of organic waste produces CH4 and other landfill gases that significantly contribute to global warming. However| before entering the atmosphere| part of the produced CH4 can be oxidised while passing through the landfill cover. In the present Study| the oxidation rate of CH4 was Studied with various types of compost as possible landfill cover. The influence of incubation time| Moisture content and temperature on the CH4 oxidation capacity of different types of compost was examined. It was observed that the influence of moisture content and temperature on methane oxidation is time-dependent. Maximum oxidation rates were observed at moisture contents ranging from 45% to 110% (dry weight basis)| while the optimum temperature ranged from 15 to 30 degrees C. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7488,2006,3,3,Industrial applications of HTS coils using DI-BSCCO wire,Applications of the HTS coils are rapidly increasing since the Sumitomo's DI-BSCCO HTS wire has been developed and commercialized. This DI-BSCCO wire has almost the same mechanical properties as that of the copper wire while it can load a hundred times current. One of the applications of the HTS coils is the motor for the ship propulsion system. It reduces carbon dioxide emissions and contributes the anti-global warming action. Other application is the high-field magnets for the R&D activities. Fabrication of coils for these applications was carried out without difficulties thanks to its improved mechanical properties. The test results show the effectiveness of the DI-BSCCO wire. 7562,2006,3,3,Industrial refrigeration and ammonia enhanced heat transfer,For the last two decades enhanced heat transfer equipment has been widely used by the hlocarbon-based air conditioning industry. The persistent issue of ozone and global warming has led to interest in natural refrigerants| such as ammonia| which has played a prominent role in the refrigeration industry for years| particularly in the fields of food| beverage| and marine. The United States food industry has almost exclusively used ammonia as a refrigerant of choice thus far. Therefore| in view of the present situation as well as the future of the air-conditioning and refrigeration industries| it is important to study the role of enhanced heat transfer technology as applied to natural refrigerants. This paper presents an overview of the status of ammonia as a refrigerant of the past| present| and future and what has been done and what ought to be done in order to make ammonia equipment more safer. compact| and attractive so it can be readily accepted by the general public. 7564,2006,5,4,Inferred history of a boreal pond from sediment and vegetation characteristics,Shallow ponds associated with peatlands in boreal Alberta contain large quantities of stored carbon in their peaty sediments| and exhibit spatial changes in response to dry or wet conditions. Peatland ponds around Utikuma Lake experienced a partial to nearly complete drawdown in 2002| in response to drought. A fourfold investigation was begun to assess the natural drought and flood cycles| assess the current C stocks along the shore| determine what species were colonizing the newly exposed shorelines| and to place the magnitude of the current drought into historical perspective. Ten vegetation communities were found to have colonized the exposed sediments. Paleostratigraphy shows that the surface communities differ markedly from paleocommunities. Stratigraphy of the wetland sediments demonstrates that only two changes occurred| one a successional switch from a sedge-dominated marsh to a forested bog| the other a much more recent disturbance that caused water levels near the pond to rise. No evidence of constantly changing paleocommunities was found| suggesting that previous droughts have not left a visible paleorecord. The more recent disturbance has likely redistributed peat into the pond basins and subsequently it has broken down to detritial peat| altering its physical structure| and perhaps its rate of decomposition. Continued exposure of the peat is likely to enhance decomposition. In this study both flooding and drought may have impacted the wetland in ways likely to result in higher rates of decomposition and enhanced CO2 emissions under global warming. 7664,2006,2,2,Inferred long term trends in lightning activity over Africa,Global warming is becoming a reality| with growing evidence that anthropogenic activity on our planet is starting to influence our climate (IPCC| 2001). Due to the increase in significant weather-related disasters in recent years| it is important to investigate the role of global warming on such changes. In this paper we attempt to estimate the long term trends in lightning activity over tropical Africa during the past 50 years| using upper tropospheric water vapor as a proxy for regional lightning activity. We use the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis product available for the period 1948 to the present to estimate the long term trends in lightning activity. Similarity between the long term African lightning variability and observed rainfall and river discharge variability are demonstrated. Since 1950 the inferred lightning activity over Africa shows significant variability| reaching a maximum during the 1960s| followed by a decrease in activity during the following 30 years. 7343,2006,2,4,Influence of climate changes on animal communities in space and time: the case of spider assemblages along an alpine glacier foreland,The impact of global warming in space and time is described for species assemblages of wandering spiders along the alpine glacier foreland of the Forni Valley (Northern Italy). We tested the effect of environmental variables (e.g. elevation| age of glacier retreat| vegetation cover| debris cover) on species richness and on species composition of spiders. Age of glacier retreat was the only significant variable influencing spider species assemblages in the valley. A spatially structured distribution of species and species assemblages along the chronosequence of glacier retreat was evidenced. The threshold abruptly differentiating two groups of species richness and species composition fell between sites deglaciated 100 and 155 years before the analysis. Latitudinal shifts towards the poles in species ranges at the global scale in response to climatic changes are known| and an altitudinal shift in species range should be expected for spiders at the local scale of the Forni Valley. Such a shift is present in spider species assemblages| although not as an expected gradual change in species richness and composition| but with a threshold effect after one century of glacier retreat. We discuss our results in the light of plausible future scenarios due to global warming| the consequence of further glacier retreats onto spiders| and caveats for monitoring studies. 7696,2006,2,4,Influence of global climate changes on arboviruses spread,Influence of global climate changes on arboviruses spread The simultaneous progression of several arboviruses and changes of the world climate suggest that both phenomenons might be linked to each other. The analysis of many observations indeed supports an implication of global warming| rainfall modifications and extreme climatic events on the distribution of arboviruses like bluetongue| African horse sickness| dengue| Rift valley fever and West Nile fever. Climate changes might however not fully explain such a fast spread of arboviruses. The recent evolution of anthropic activities like travel| transport of goods and animals| urbanization and land use also have a considerable incidence on arboviruses progression. Although the arboviral cycles are often complex and the forcasts about future climate changes remain associated with high uncertainties| the arguments that are described further support a future modification of arboviruses distribution due to climate changes. 7561,2006,2,4,Influence of global warming on baroclinic Rossby radius in the ocean: A model intercomparison,Results from eight ocean-atmosphere general circulation models are used to evaluate the influence of the projected changes in the oceanic stratification on the first baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation in the ocean| associated with atmospheric CO2 increase. For each of the models| an oceanic state corresponding to the A1B stabilization experiment (with atmospheric CO2 concentration of 720 ppm) is compared to a state corresponding to the preindustrial control experiment (with atmospheric CO2 concentration of 280 ppm). In all of the models| the first baroclinic Rossby radius increases with increasing oceanic stratification in the warmer climate. There is| however| a considerable range among the models in the magnitude of the increase. At the latitudes of intense eddy activity associated with instability of western boundary currents (around 35 degrees-40 degrees)| the increase reaches 4 km on average| or about 15% of the local baroclinic Rossby radius. Some of the models predict an increase of the baroclinic Rossby radius by more than 20% at these latitudes under the applied forcing. It is therefore suggested that in a plausible future warmer climate| the characteristic length scale of mesoscale eddies| as well as boundary currents and fronts| may increase. In addition| since the speed of long baroclinic Rossby waves is proportional to the squared baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation| the results suggest that the time scale for large-scale dynamical oceanic adjustment may decrease in the warmer climate| thereby increasing the frequency of long-term climate variability where the oceanic Rossby wave dynamics set the dominant period. Finally| the speed of equatorial Kelvin waves and Rossby waves| carrying signals along the equator| including those related to ENSO| is projected to increase. 7543,2006,2,4,Influence of greenhouse warming on tropical cyclone frequency,Influences of sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns and cumulus parameterizations on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency| in the context of global warming impacts| are investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model at T106 horizontal resolution. Simulated TCs in this high-resolution model are categorized into tropical storms (TSs) and tropical depressions (TDs). Model TSs are defined as TCs with maximum surface wind speed more than| or equal to 16 m s(-1)| for experiments with an Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization. Another threshold of 14 m s(-1) is used for those with a Kuo cumulus parameterization. Model TDs are defined as weaker TCs. Although the maximum wind speed| and the minimum central pressures of intense TCs are not realistically simulated in the model| geographical patterns of TS formation seem to be realistically simulated| with climatological and El Nino/La Nina SST conditions. A series of experiments is conducted with doubled CO2 and with increased SSTs. A spatial pattern of SST| made by uniform 2 K warming| is used for experiments with both of the cumulus parameterizations. El Nino-like and La Nina-like warming patterns of SSTs| are used with the Arakawa-Schubert scheme. In these global warming experiments| frequency of TS formation decreases by 9.0-18.4% globally| and some of these changes are statistically significant. While no coherent changes in global frequency of relatively intense TCs (e.g.| maximum surface wind >= 25 m s(-1)) are found in the warm-climate experiments| significant reduction in the total frequency of TSs and TDs resulted from all of these experiments. The results suggest that global frequency of relatively weak TCs may decrease in the future warm climate| but frequency of intense storms may either decrease or increase. Mean precipitation near TC centers is significantly heavier in the warming experiments than in the present-day experiments| as compared for TCs with the same maximum wind speed.. 7581,2006,2,4,Influence of incubation temperature on hatchling phenotype in reptiles,Incubation temperature influences hatchling phenotypes such as sex| size| shape| color| behavior| and locomotor performance in many reptiles| and there is growing concern that global warming might adversely affect reptile populations by altering frequencies of hatchling phenotypes. Here I overview a recent theoretical model used to predict hatchling sex of reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination. This model predicts that sex ratios will be fairly robust to moderate global warming as long as eggs experience substantial daily cyclic fluctuations in incubation temperatures so that embryos are exposed to temperatures that inhibit embryonic development for part of the day. I also review studies that examine the influence of incubation temperature on posthatch locomotion performance and growth because these are the traits that are likely to have the greatest effect on hatchling fitness. The majority of these studies used artificial constant-temperature incubation| but some have addressed fluctuating incubation temperature regimes. Although the number of studies is small| it appears that fluctuating temperatures may enhance hatchling locomotor performance. This finding should not be surprising| given that the majority of natural reptile nests are relatively shallow and therefore experience daily fluctuations in incubation temperature. 7672,2006,2,4,Influence of synchronization between adult emergence and host plant phenology on the population density of Pseudasphondylia neolitseae (Diptera : Cecidomyiidae) inducing leaf galls on Neolitsea sericea (Lauraceae),Synchronization between the appearance of herbivorous insects and their host-plant phenology is a critical event| especially for short-lived insects such as gall midges. We studied a natural population of Pseudasphondylia neolitseae (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) that induces leaf galls on Neolitsea sericea (Lauraceae) to evaluate the effect of synchronization on gall density in the subsequent generation. To do so| we combined quantitative data on host resources with time lag between emergence and host-available seasons. The gamma distribution model was applied to the emergence curve of P. neolitseae and the normal distribution model to the daily changes in the number of host buds suitable for oviposition; the latter model was transformed into an "available-resource curve" based on the mean number of host buds required for a single female to realize her eggs. By superimposing the emergence curve on the available-resource curve and calculating overlapped area| the degree of synchronization was evaluated more accurately than previous studies| which had treated only the time lag. The number of females that synchronized with host buds affected gall density in the next generation. 7321,2006,2,4,Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming,Recent global climate model simulations for the IPCC Fourth Assessment report show a realistic North Pacific storm track and Aleutian Low for present-day climate conditions. Under climate change| the storm track and Aleutian Low move northward and intensify. These changes shift precipitation northward along the Pacific coast of North America. In particular| precipitation is intensified over the Pacific Northwest. Results from a statistical downscaling model suggest that precipitation may become more intense both due to the increased frequency of large-scale storms and due to changes in the interaction of these storms with the local terrain. 7322,2006,2,4,Influences of large-scale climatic variability on reindeer population dynamics: implications for reindeer husbandry in Norway,There is increasing evidence that the globe is currently warming| with changes being more pronounced in northern latitudes. Understanding the ecological effects of climatic variability is therefore important. There is recent support for the idea that a large-scale atmospheric phenomenon| the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)| through its effects on vegetation and regional weather conditions| influences several aspects of life histories and population dynamic processes of several mammal species| including reindeer Rangifer tarandus. However| patterns are inconsistent both between species and within species. Here| we focus on reindeer| a herbivore that inhabits an extremely seasonal environment. We review and discuss predicted patterns of global climatic change in Norway and assess potential consequences for reindeer husbandry. We argue that although it is clearly shown that local and global climate affect reindeer directly (e.g. increased energetic costs of moving through deep snow and in accessing forage through snow) and indirectly (e.g. effect on forage plant biomass and quality| level of insect harassment and associated parasitism)| it is difficult to predict a general pattern of how future climate change will influence this species. It is especially difficult to predict how reindeer husbandry (an important economic and cultural activity for the Saami People) will be affected in Norway. Indeed| (1) patterns in life history traits and Population parameters of reindeer vary over space and time| (2) both temperature and precipitation will increase in Norway| with greater changes in the North| i.e. the areas with reindeer husbandry| but the rate of increase will vary with space and seasons| (3) there are several indirect effects of global warming that can complicate the ecological response| especially involving the response of vegetation (e.g. forage on which reindeer depend)| and (4) spatial variation| seasonality| complexity of the ecosystem functioning and nonlinearity of ecological processes make any firm prediction uncertain. Consequently| it is difficult to assess the practical and socio-economic implications for the reindeer husbandry industry. 7429,2006,4,4,InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields| losses due to pests| and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. II. Performance of the model,InfoCrop| a generic crop model| simulates the effects of weather| soils| agronomic management (planting| nitrogen| residues and irrigation) and major pests on crop growth| yield| soil carbon| nitrogen and water| and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents results of its evaluation in terms of its validation for rice and wheat crops in contrasting agro-environments of tropics| sensitivity to the key inputs| and also illustrates two typical applications of the model. Eleven diverse field experiments| having treatments of location| seasons| varieties| nitrogen management| organic matter| irrigation| and multiple pest incidences were used for validation. Grain yields in these experiments varied from 2.8 to 7.2 ton ha(-1) in rice and from 3.6 to 5.5 ton ha(-1) in wheat. The results indicated that the model was generally able to explain the differences in biomass| grain yield| emissions of carbon dioxide| methane and nitrous oxides| and long-term trends in soil organic carbon| in diverse agro-environments. The losses in dry matter and grain yield due to different pests and their populations were also explained satisfactorily. There were some discrepancies in the simulated emission of these gases during first few days after sowing/transplanting possibly because of the absence of tillage effects in the model. The sensitivity of the model to change in ambient temperature| crop duration and pest incidence was similar to the available field knowledge. The application of the model to quantify multiple pests damage through iso-loss curves is demonstrated. Another application illustrated is the use of InfoCrop for analyzing the trade-offs between increasing crop production| agronomic management strategies| and their global warming potential. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7683,2006,3,4,Integrated approach to risk management of future climate change impacts,The vulnerability of the built environment will be influenced by global-scale climate change. However| there are large uncertainties associated with the future performance of buildings due: to changes in regional- and local-scale climatic impact. The use of modern risk-management theories is discussed for developing cross-disciplinary strategies to meet the challenges of future climate change. It is shown that there are benefits to be gained from the introduction of risk-management strategies within a greater extent of the construction industry. Cross-disciplinary risk-based management strategies (ensuring cooperation along vertical decision-making lines)| together with design guidelines that account for both historical local climatic conditions and scenarios for future changes| can be an important step towards a more active and dynamic way of ensuring a high-quality construction process and a sustainable built environment. Reducing the potential for defects or damage through the development of technical and organizational preventive measures (a risk-based management strategy) while at the same time applying the precautionary principle and discursive strategies in the design| construction and geographical localization of buildings| is likely to increase the robustness of the built environment in the light of the unknown risks of future climate change. 7313,2006,4,4,Integrated assessments of global warming issues and an overview of project PHOENIX - A comprehensive approach,This paper presents a new integrated assessment model (IAM) approach to global warming issues and reviews the ongoing approach to Project PHOENIX-Paths toward Harmony Of Environment| Natural resources and Industry compleX| developed by the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE). Existing integrated assessment approaches based on cost-benefit analysis calculate the potential costs under certain emission control policies| evaluating the warming damage in monetary terms and then exploring the preferable options. However| these approaches are not sufficient when we take into account the possibility of irreversible impacts| such as the shutdown of ocean thermohaline circulation and extinction of species. This project aims at providing integrated information and assessments for the global warming issues by gathering scientific information and by developing multimodels. For instance| the energy-economics model DNE-21 is expanded to generate the carbon emission path until 2200. A potential agricultural productivity model based on grid geographic information system (GIS) data is developed to assess the effect of climate change on crop production. DEARS| an intertemporal optimization multisector| multiregional| CGE energy-economics model| is also developed to look at the effects of climate policy on industry sectors. Finally| we summarize the assessments and findings through the procedure in a 'scoreboard' for the assessment based on the expert judgments. (C) 2006 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons| Inc. 1633,2006,5,4,Integration of ice-core| marine and terrestrial records for the Australian Last Glacial Maximum and Termination: a contribution from the OZ INTIMATE group,The degree to which Southern Hemisphere climatic changes during the end of the last glacial period and early Holocene (30-8 ka) were influenced or initiated by events occurring in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is a complex issue. There is conflicting evidence for the degree of hemispheric 'teleconnection' and an unresolved debate as to the principle forcing mechanism(s). The available hypotheses are difficult to test robustly| however| because the few detailed palaeoclimatic records in the Southern Hemisphere are widely dispersed and lack duplication. Here we present climatic and environmental reconstructions from across Australia| a key region of the Southern Hemisphere because of the range of environments it covers and the potentially important role regional atmospheric and oceanic controls play in global climate change. We identify a general scheme of events for the end of the last glacial period and early Holocene but a detailed reconstruction proved problematic. Significant progress in climate quantification and geochronological control is now urgently required to robustly investigate change through this period. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 7491,2006,2,3,Interaction of the onset of spring and elevated atmospheric CO2 on ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) pollen production,Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is responsible for climate changes that are having widespread effects on biological systems. One of the dearest changes is earlier onset of spring and lengthening of the growing season. We designed the present study to examine the interactive effects of timing of dormancy release of seeds with low and high atmospheric CO2 on biomass| reproduction| and phenology in ragweed plants (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.)| which produce highly allergenic pollen. We released ragweed seeds from dormancy at three 15-day intervals and grew plants in climate-controlled glasshouses at either ambient or 700-ppm CO2 concentrations| placing open-top bags over inflorescences to capture pollen. Measurements of plant height and weight; inflorescence number| weight| and length; and days to anthesis and anthesis date were made on each plant| and whole-plant pollen productivity was estimated from an allometric-based model. Timing and CO2 interacted to influence pollen production. At ambient CO2 levels| the earlier cohort acquired a greater biomass| a higher average weight per inflorescence| and a larger number of inflorescences; flowered earlier; and had 54.8% greater pollen production than did the latest cohort. At high CO2 levels| plants showed greater biomass and reproductive effort compared with those in ambient CO2 but only for later cohorts. In the early cohort| pollen production was similar under ambient and high CO2| but in the middle and late cohorts| high CO2 increased pollen production by 32% and 55%| respectively| compared with ambient CO2 levels. Overall| ragweed pollen production can be expected to increase significantly under predicted future climate conditions. 7454,2006,2,4,Interannual variability of winter oceanic CO2 and air-sea CO2 flux in the western North Pacific for 2 decades,[ 1] The 2-decade records of the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters (pCO(2)(sea)) and the resulting air-sea CO2 flux in the extensive subtropical to equatorial area along 137 degrees E in the western North Pacific in winter exhibited significant interannual variations that differed in different regions. The pCO(2)(sea) varied largely in the equatorial region of 3 degrees N to 6 degrees N| depending on the oceanographic conditions related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The magnitude of the variations differed year by year| corresponding to the different degrees of compensation between the sea surface temperature (SST) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) effects on pCO(2)(sea) during the events. Small pCO(2)(sea) variations in the subtropical gyre north of 23 degrees N were due to highly counteracting effects between anticorrelated SST and DIC anomalies through the entrainment process. In contrast| a low negative correlation existed between SST and DIC| associated with the lateral advection in the region restricted around 15 degrees N to 18 degrees N in the North Equatorial Current| resulting in a large amplitude of variations of pCO(2)(sea) and hence CO2 influx. The interannual variations of CO2 flux depended predominantly on the difference in pCO(2) between air and sea south of 18 degrees N| but on wind speed in the northern region. It is important to monitor how the contributions of different properties to the CO2 flux could change in the western North Pacific| responding to possible shifts of the ENSO conditions and the future progress of global warming. 1600,2006,5,4,Interhemispheric anti-phasing of rainfall during the last glacial period,We have obtained a high-resolution oxygen isotopic record of cave calcite from Caverna Botuvera (27 degrees 13'S| 49 degrees 09'W)| southern Brazil| which covers most of the last 36 thousand years (ka)| with an average resolution of a few to several decades. The chronology was determined with 46 U/Th ages from two stalagmites. Tests for equilibrium conditions show that oxygen isotopic variations are primarily caused by climate change. We interpret our record in terms of meteoric precipitation changes| hence the variability of South American Monsoon (SAM) intensity. The oxygen isotopic profile broadly follows local insolation changes and shows clear millennial-scale variations during the last glacial period with amplitudes as large as 3 parts per thousand but with smaller centennial-scale shifts (< 1 parts per thousand) during the Holocene. The overall record is strikingly similar to| but strongly anti-correlated with| a number of records from the Northern Hemisphere. We compared our record to other precisely dated contemporaneous records from Hulu Cave eastern China. Minima in 6180 (wet periods| intense SAM) at our site are synchronous with maxima in delta O-18 (dry periods| weak East Asian Monsoon| EAM) in eastern China (within precise dating errors) and vice versa. This anti-phased precipitation relationship between two low-latitude locations may be interhemispheric in extent| based on comparison with records from other sites. Precipitation anti-phasing may be related to north-south shifts in the mean position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and asymmetry in Hadley circulation in two hemispheres| associated not with seasonal changes as observed today| but with millennial-scale climate shifts. The millennial-scale atmospheric see-saw patterns that we observe could have important controls and feedbacks on climate within hemispheres because of water vapor's greenhouse properties. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7681,2006,4,4,International comparison of analytical methods of determining the soil organic matter content of Lithuanian eutric albeluvisols,Several soil organic matter (SOM) methodologies have been employed to analyze a Suite Of subsampled soils| and their results have been correlated. This will permit future comparison of the large archive of SOM databases| which widely exist in Lithuania and other Central and Eastern European countries| with those of other international Countries. Samples were collected (n = 92) from topsoil and subsoil horizons of Eutric Glassoboralfs (Eutric Albeluvisols) at five long-term monitoring sites (three sites with 8 years' duration and two sites with 20 years' duration) containing a total of 46 experimental field plots. Each soil sample was subsampled and SOM determined by several analytical approaches (namely| dry combustion| Walkley-Black| Tyurin photometric| Tyurin titrimetric| and loss-on-ignition methods). Correlation coefficients between multiple sets of results varied between r = 0.831 and r = 0.965 (n = 92| P < 0.001). Based on the strength and significance of these relationships| we propose that simple linear regression equations can be confidently employed to recalculate SOM data among various analytical methodologies and thus help resolve the issue of international data comparison. 7662,2006,2,4,Invasive behaviour of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae) in the Netherlands: Spatial distribution and ecological amplitude,Species invasions have been a central theme in ecology over the past decades| with a focus on invasions of non-indigenous European species in the New World. However| within Europe| native species may also become invasive. Such species rapidly increase their geographic range and may at the same time broaden their ecological amplitude. We report on Lactuca serriola L.| which has shown a rapid range expansion in many parts of Europe. We reconstructed its geographical spread through The Netherlands; furthermore| we tested for changes in its ecological amplitude. Before 1950| L. serriola was rare in The Netherlands| recorded from only 80 grid-cells (of 5 x 5 km(2)). Subsequently| its distribution increased from 219 grid-cells (1980)| to 546 cells (990) and 998 grid cells (2000). It currently occupies at least 60% of The Netherlands. Analyses of relevees demonstrate| using detrended correspondence analysis (DCA)| that the variance in the assemblage of species co-occurring with L. serriola increased significantly since 1940| indicating that the species currently occurs in a broader range of vegetation types. Correlating averages of Ellenberg's indicator values per vegetation relevee with time| we found correlations for continentality (+)| acidity (-) and (soil) humidity (+). Moreover| the proportion of phanerophytes in the relevees increased over time. These findings suggest that in addition to its original ruderal. habitat| L. serriola also currently occurs| in more closed vegetation types. Based on analyses of two other co-occurring Asteraceae species| we showed that these patterns were specific for L. serriola only. We conclude that L. serriola has broadened its ecological amplitude and discuss four mutually non-exclusive explanations for the recent invasiveness of L. serriola: (i) Effects of a changed environment: global. warming and ruderalisation; (ii) metapopulation dynamics and increased diaspore pressure; (iii) microevolution; IN) genetic reinforcement due to hybridisation with conspecific (crop) species. (c) 2006 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 1638,2006,4,4,Invasive grass reduces aboveground carbon stocks in shrublands of the Western US,Understanding the terrestrial carbon budget| in particular the strength of the terrestrial carbon sink| is important in the context of global climate change. Considerable attention has been given to woody encroachment in the western US and the role it might play as a carbon sink; however| in many parts of the western US the reverse process is also occurring. The conversion of woody shrublands to annual grasslands involves the invasion of non-native cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) which in turn leads to increased frequency and extent of fires. We compared carbon storage in adjacent plots of invasive grassland and native shrubland. We scaled-up the impact of this ecosystem shift using regional maps of the current invasion and of the risk of future invasion. The expansion of cheatgrass within the Great Basin has released an estimated 8 +/- 3 Tg C to the atmosphere| and will likely release another 50 +/- 20 Tg C in the coming decades. This ecosystem conversion has changed portions of the western US from a carbon sink to a source| making previous estimates of a western carbon sink almost certainly spurious. The growing importance of invasive species in driving land cover changes may substantially change future estimates of US terrestrial carbon storage. 7457,2006,4,4,Is a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation irreversible?,[ 1] The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays a vital role in explaining past abrupt climate changes and in maintaining the current climate. Its remarkable nonlinear dynamics| first demonstrated by H. M. Stommel| have been supported by various types of climate models. This has led to severe concerns that global warming may shut down the THC irreversibly| with consequent catastrophic climate changes| particularly for Europe. Here we use an uncoupled ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) to investigate the nonlinear response of the THC to freshwater perturbations in the northern North Atlantic. We find that the THC shuts down irreversibly in the uncoupled OGCM simulations but reversibly in the coupled AOGCM simulations. This occurs because of different feedback processes operating in the uncoupled OGCM and AOGCM. The reversal of the THC in the uncoupled OGCM tends to stabilize the "off'' mode of the THC by decreasing the mean salinity of the Atlantic| whereas a crucial negative feedback in the AOGCM helps the THC recover. This negative feedback results from complex air-sea interactions| and its operation needs the full participation of the atmosphere. Thus given the more realistic simulation by the AOGCM| the irreversible shutdown of the THC caused by freshwater addition appears to be an artifact of the uncoupled OGCM rather than a likely outcome of global warming. 7625,2006,3,3,Is cumulative fossil energy demand a useful indicator for the environmental performance of products?,The appropriateness of the fossil Cumulative Energy Demand (CED) as an indicator for the environmental performance of products and processes is explored with a regression analysis between the environmental life-cycle impacts and fossil CEDs of 1218 products| divided into the product categories "energy production"| "material production"| "transport"| and "waste treatment". Our results show that| for all product groups but waste treatment| the fossil CED correlates well with most impact categories| such as global warming| resource depletion| acidification| eutrophication| tropospheric ozone formation| ozone depletion| and human toxicity (explained variance between 46% and 100%). We conclude that the use of fossil fuels is an important driver of several environmental impacts and thereby indicative for many environmental problems. It may therefore serve as a screening indicator for environmental performance. However| the usefulness of fossil CED as a stand-alone indicator for environmental impact is limited by the large uncertainty in the product-specific fossil CED-based impact scores (larger than a factor of 10 for the majority of the impact categories; 95% confidence interval). A major reason for this high uncertainty is nonfossil energy related emissions and land use| such as landfill leachates| radionuclide emissions| and land use in agriculture and forestry. 7623,2006,3,2,It is premature to include non-CO2 effects of aviation in emission trading schemes,The recent G8 Gleneagles climate statement signed on 8 July 2005 specifically mentions a determination to lessen the impact of aviation on climate [Gleneagles| 2005. The Gleneagles communique: climate change| energy and sustainable development. http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/PostG8_Gleneagles_Communique.pdf]. In January 2005 the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) commenced operation as the largest multi-country| multi-sector ETS in the world| albeit currently limited only to CO2 emissions. At present the scheme makes no provision for aircraft emissions. However| the UK Government would like to see aircraft included in the ETS and plans to use its Presidencies of both the EU and G8 in 2005 to implement these schemes within the EU and perhaps internationally. Non-CO2 effects have been included in some policy-orientated studies of the impact of aviation but we argue that the inclusion of such effects in any such ETS scheme is premature; we specifically argue that use of the Radiative Forcing Index for comparing emissions from different sources is inappropriate and that there is currently no metric for such a purpose that is likely to enable their inclusion in the near future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7360,2006,3,3,Japanese potential of CO2 sequestration in coal seams,As a reduction strategy for global warming by green-house gases underground storage or sequestration of CO2 into coal beds or seams has been studied by the Japanese government and some associated organizations. The principle of this study depends on the adsorption of CH4 or CO2 on the surface of coal molecules as well as the nearly twice the amount of adsorption of CO2 compared with CH4. One of the authors had experimentally clarified the adsorption abilities of the coals in each Japanese coalfield. Based on these adsorption-abilities| the amount of the coal-bed methane resources was calculated| and also the sequestration-potential of carbon dioxide was estimated for each coalfield. In this paper| the CO2 sequestration-potential obtained from each coalfield is compared with the potentials from the other coalfields in Japan. Among the Japanese coalfields| the Ishikari coalfield in Hokkaido is the biggest and shows 50% of Japanese CO2-sequestration-potential. And the other big coalfields are the solitary island area in the northwestern district of Kyushu and the Miike-Ariake Sea area. Their potential percentages are 14% and 13%| respectively. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7282,2006,3,3,Kinetic modeling of the NF3 decomposition via dielectric barrier discharges in N-2/NF3 mixtures,Emission of PFCs (perfluorocompound) has attracted much attention in recent years due to its relatively high contribution to the global warming. Non-thermal plasma is one of the most promising technologies to effectively control the PFC emissions. In this study| a cylindrical DBD (dielectric barrier discharge) reactor is adopted for the treatment of NF3-containing streams. Besides the experimental work| a numerical model is also developed for better understanding of the reaction mechanism of NF3 abatement in N-2/NF3 mixtures. Good agreement is observed between the experimental data and the simulation results. Simulation results indicate that the electrons and the N atoms are the major active species responsible for the NF3 decomposition. In addition| N-2(A (3)Sigma(+)(u)) metastables plays a significant role in the NF3 abatement. A simplified mechanism for the NF3 decomposition in the N-2 - NF3 plasmas is proposed as well. 7409,2006,2,4,Labile aluminium chemistry downstream a limestone treated lake and an acid tributary: Effects of warm winters and extreme rainstorms,The outlet from the limestone treated Lake Terjevann consisted mainly of well-mixed lake water (mean pH 6.1) during the ice-free seasons including the unusually warm winters of 1992 and 1993. However| during the ice-covered period acidic water (mean pH 4.8| mean inorganic aluminium (Al-i) about 160 mu g/l) from the catchment draining under the lake ice dominated. A downstream tributary was generally acid and rich in aluminium (mean pH 4.6| Al-i about 230 mu g/l). After an extreme rainstorm loaded with sea-salts cation exchange in the soil resulted in more than a doubling of the Ali concentration (reaching about 500 mu g/l). It took 3-4 months until the Ali concentration returned to pre-event levels. During the ice-covered period| the acidic outlet and tributary waters resulted in acidic conditions below the confluence (pH < 4.8| Al-i about 150 mu g/l) while during the ice-free periods the more neutral outlet water resulted in higher pH and lower Al-i concentrations (pH > 5.2| Al-i about 95 mu g/l). However| during the latter climatic conditions the water was most probably more harmful to fish due to hydrolysing and polymerizing aluminium. After the sea-salt event| the increased Ali concentration in the tributary made the zone below the confluence potentially more toxic (PH similar to 5| Al-i similar to 250 mu g/l). Expected global warming resulting in winter mean temperatures above 0 degrees C may eliminate the seasonal acidification of the outlet from limestone-treated lakes creating permanent toxic mixing zones in the confluence below acidic aluminium-rich tributaries. Besides| more frequent rainstorms as a consequence of global warming may increase the frequency of sea-salt events and the Ali concentrations in the mixing zones. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1705,2006,2,4,Land cover change and its impacts on soil C and N in two watersheds in the center of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,The responses of the ecosystems along the 0 degrees C mean annual isotherm to global climate change are intense and involve significant changes in land cover at the water shed scale. This paper evaluates changes in land cover in the center of Qinghai-Tibet| the headwater region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers| on the basis of two sets of remote sensing data (1986 and 2000) and field investigations. Over a period of 15 years| 23% and 34% of alpine cold swamp were recently turned into alpine cold meadow or alpine cold steppe| and decreased in area by 25.9% and 42.7% in the headwater areas of the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers| respectively. Moreover| more than 20% of high-coverage alpine cold meadow and alpine cold steppe were converted to lower-coverage alpine cold meadow (vegetation coverage > 80%) and alpine cold steppe (vegetation coverage > 50%). Desertified land increased by 18.4% (bare rocks and sparse land) and 31.1% (sandy land) in the headwater area of the Yellow River and by 17.8%-18.5% in the headwater area of the Yangtze River. Land cover change in this region involves a complex transition between land cover types| which have a great influence on soil nutrients and the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool. Land cover changes in the study area over the 15-year study period led to the loss of 336.6 Gg of SOC| of which 61.6% were lost by alpine cold swamp transformation| and a total nitrogen (N) loss of 26.9 Gg| of which 81.9% occurred in the headwater area of the Yangtze River. The changes in the carbon and nitrogen cycles have serious implications for greenhouse gas emissions due to land cover change caused by climate warming in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. 7356,2006,4,3,Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe,Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to enhance the interannual variability of summer climate in Europe(1-3) and other mid-latitude regions(4|5)| potentially causing more frequent heatwaves(1|3|5|6). Climate models consistently predict an increase in the variability of summer temperatures in these areas| but the underlying mechanisms responsible for this increase remain uncertain. Here we explore these mechanisms using regional simulations of recent and future climatic conditions with and without land - atmosphere interactions. Our results indicate that the increase in summer temperature variability predicted in central and eastern Europe is mainly due to feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. Furthermore| they suggest that land - atmosphere interactions increase climate variability in this region because climatic regimes in Europe shift northwards in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations| creating a new transitional climate zone with strong land - atmosphere coupling in central and eastern Europe. These findings emphasize the importance of soil- moisture - temperature feedbacks ( in addition to soil- moisture - precipitation feedbacks(7-10)) in influencing summer climate variability and the potential migration of climate zones with strong land - atmosphere coupling(7|11) as a consequence of global warming. This highlights the crucial role of land atmosphere interactions in future climate change. 1608,2006,5,4,Late Pliocene monsoon linkage in the tropical South China Sea,The onset of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) similar to 2.7 Ma ago coincided with prominent climate changes in the tropical regions such as the African and the Asian monsoons. However| the relationship between tropical and sub-tropical monsoonal variations and high northern latitude ice sheet expansion as well as processes such as late Pliocene tropical sea surface temperature (SST) change is not clear. Our late Pliocene (2.5-3.3 Ma) monsoon proxy records and Mg/Ca derived SST records at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1143 from the southern South China Sea (SCS) reveal that while tropical SST shows a stepwise decrease of 2-3 degrees C during this period| the East Asian monsoon gradually strengthens in response to the onset of the NHG. At the 41-kyr and 23-kyr bands| ice volume change lags tropical SST by similar to 4 kyr| but leads the East Asian monsoon by similar to 12-17 kyr. Our finding highlights the significant role of the tropical Pacific region in driving global climate change in the late Pliocene| which has invariable leading phase relative to the ice volume change as in the late Pleistocene. However| the East Asian monsoon shows a linear response to the onset: of the NHG in the late Pliocene| with much bigger phase lagged at the 41-kyr and 23-kyr bands than in the Pleistocene| which suggests that at the obliquity and precession bands the phases of the Plio-Pleistocene East Asian monsoon variations relative to the global ice volume changes are not constant| but variable. Therefore| the East Asian monsoons are not only simply driven by northern summer insolation at the precession period but also modulated by global ice volume change in high latitudes. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1697,2006,5,4,Late Pliocene vegetation and climate in Namibia (southern Africa) derived from palynology of ODP Site 1082,[ 1] The present-day condition of bipolar glaciation characterized by rapid and large climate fluctuations began at the end of the Pliocene with the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere continental glaciations. The global cooling steps of the late Pliocene have been documented in numerous studies of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sites from the Northern Hemisphere. However| the interactions between oceans and between land and ocean during these cooling steps are poorly known. In particular| data from the Southern Hemisphere are lacking. Therefore I investigated the pollen of ODP Site 1082 in the southeast Atlantic Ocean in order to obtain a high-resolution record of vegetation change in Namibia between 3.4 and 1.8 Ma. Four phases of vegetation development are inferred that are connected to global climate change. ( 1) Before 3 Ma| extensive| rather open grass-rich savannahs with mopane trees existed in Namibia| but the extension of desert and semidesert vegetation was still restricted. ( 2) Increase of winter rainfall dependent Renosterveld-like vegetation occurred between 3.1 and 2.2 Ma connected to strong advection of polar waters along the Namibian coast and a northward shift of the Polar Front Zone in the Southern Ocean. ( 3) Climatically induced fluctuations became stronger between 2.7 and 2.2 Ma and semiarid areas extended during glacial periods probably as the result of an increased pole-equator thermal gradient and consequently globally enhanced atmospheric circulation. ( 4) Aridification and climatic variability further increased after 2.2 Ma| when the Polar Front Zone migrated southward and the influence of Atlantic moisture brought by the westerlies to southern Africa declined. It is concluded that the positions of the frontal systems in the Southern Ocean which determine the locations of the high-pressure cells over the South Atlantic and the southern Indian Ocean have a strong influence on the climate of southern Africa in contrast to the climate of northwest and central Africa| which is dominated by the Saharan low-pressure cell. 7379,2006,2,4,Leaf litter nitrogen concentration as related to climatic factors in Eurasian forests,Aim:The aim of this study is to determine the patterns of nitrogen (N) concentrations in leaf litter of forest trees as functions of climatic factors| annual average temperature (Temp| degrees C) and annual precipitation (Precip| dm) and of forest type (coniferous vs. broadleaf| deciduous vs. evergreen| Pinus| etc.). Location:The review was conducted using data from studies across the Eurasian continent. Methods:Leaf litter N concentration was compiled from 204 sets of published data (81 sets from coniferous and 123 from broadleaf forests in Eurasia). We explored the relationships between leaf litter N concentration and Temp and Precip by means of regression analysis. Leaf litter data from N-2-fixing species were excluded from the analysis. Results:Over the Eurasian continent| leaf litter N concentration increased with increasing Temp and Precip within functional groups such as conifers| broadleaf| deciduous| evergreen and the genus Pinus. There were highly significant linear relationships between ln(N) and Temp and Precip (P < 0.001) for all available data combined| as well as for coniferous trees| broadleaf trees| deciduous trees| evergreen trees and Pinus separately. With both Temp and Precip as independent variables in multiple regression equations| the adjusted coefficient of determination () was evidently higher than in simple regressions with either Temp or Precip as independent variable. Standardized regression coefficients showed that Temp had a larger impact than Precip on litter N concentration for all groups except evergreens. The impact of temperature was particularly strong for Pinus Conclusions:The relationship between leaf litter N concentration and temperature and precipitation can be well described with simple or multiple linear regression equations for forests over Eurasia. In the context of global warming| these regression equations are useful for a better understanding and modelling of the effects of geographical and climatic factors on leaf litter N at a regional and continental scale. 1658,2006,2,3,Level physiology| biomass| and reproduction of Phytolacca americana under conditions of elevated carbon dioxide and increased nocturnal temperature,Rising atmospheric CO2 and increasing air temperatures are predicted to increase future plant growth| but plant responses to increasing temperatures could be complicated by the fact that nocturnal temperatures may increase more than diurnal temperatures. The C-3 forb Phytolacca americana L. (Phytolaccacea) was grown under either ambient (370 mu mol mol(-1)) or elevated (740 mmol mol(-1)) CO2 in either of two nocturnal temperature treatments (26 degrees/20 degrees C or 26 degrees/24 degrees C day/night). We predicted that elevated CO2 would increase photosynthetic rate and enhance plant biomass| while elevated nocturnal temperature would increase dark respiration rate and decrease biomass. Thus| increased nocturnal temperature was predicted to diminish the generally positive effects of elevated CO2 on plant growth. Plants grown under elevated CO2 responded as expected| with 69% greater photosynthetic rate and 35% larger whole-plant biomass for the first part of the growing season. Contrary to the predictions| however| increased nocturnal temperature had no negative effect on respiration rate or biomass. In fact| plants grown at higher nocturnal temperatures flowered 1.5 d earlier and exhibited a 32% increase in biomass allocation to reproduction. Thus| higher nocturnal temperatures did not diminish the generally positive effects of elevated CO2 on P. americana growth. Instead| these results indicate that elevated CO2 and increasing nocturnal temperatures of the future could have a neutral or even positive effect on P. americana population growth. 1628,2006,4,4,Lichen flora around the Korean Antarctic Scientific Station| King George Island| Antarctic,As part of the long-term monitoring projects on Antarctic terrestrial vegetation in relation to global climate change| a lichen floristical survey was conducted around the Korean Antarctic Station (King Sejong Station)| which is located on Barton Peninsula| King George Island| in January and February of 2006. Two hundred and twenty-five lichen specimens were collected and sixty-two lichen species in 38 genera were identified by morphological characteristics| chemical constituents| TLC analysis and ITS nucleotide sequence analysis. 1691,2006,2,4,Life at the edge: an experimental study of a poleward range boundary,Experimental studies of biogeographic processes are important| but rarely attempted because of the logistical challenges of research at large spatial scales. I used a series of large-scale transplant experiments to investigate the mechanisms controlling species abundance near a poleward range boundary. The intertidal limpet Collisella scabra experiences a 100-fold decline in abundance over the northernmost 300 km of its range. Temperature and food supply both strongly influenced individual survival| growth| and maturation. Regression analysis also revealed significant interactions among these conditions: the effect of one could not be predicted without knowing the level of the other. But these relationships could not explain geographic abundance patterns. Instead| individual limpets were highly successful at sites with relatively low abundance. These results suggest that| even though temperature is important to the success of individual C. scabra populations| the primary effect of warming temperatures under climate change may not be a shift in geographic distribution. 7555,2006,3,4,Life cycle analysis of a solar thermal system with thermochemical storage process,Solar energy itself is generally considered as environmentally friendly| nevertheless it is still important to take into consideration the environmental impacts caused by production of thousands of solar thermal systems. In this work the standard LCA methodology has been extended to analyse the total environmental impacts of a new more efficient solar thermal system SOLARSTORE during its whole life cycle. This system is being developed by a 5th Framework EC project. The LCA results show that to produce 1 GJ energy with SOLARSTORE system will result in global warming potential of 6.3-10 kg CO2| acidification potential of 46.6-70 g SO2| eutrophication of 2.1-3.1 g phosphate and photochemical oxidant of 0.99-1.5 g C2H4. The raw material acquisition and components manufacturing processes contribute 99% to the total environmental impacts. In comparison with traditional heating systems| SOLARSTORE system provides a considerably better solution for reduction of negative environmental impacts by using solar energy more efficiently. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7554,2006,3,3,Life cycle assesment of municipal solid waste management methods: Ankara case study,Different solid waste management system scenarios were developed and compared for the Municipal Solid Waste Management System of Ankara by using the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The solid waste management methods considered in the scenarios were collection and transportation of wastes| source reduction| Material Recovery Facility (MRF)/Transfer Stations (TS)| incineration| anaerobic digestion and landfilling. The goal of the study was to determine the most environmentally friendly option of MSWM system for Ankara. The functional unit of the study was the amount of solid waste generated in the system area of concern| which are the districts of Ankara. The life cycle inventory analysis was carried out by IWM Model-1. The inputs and outputs of each management stage were defined and the inventory emissions calculated by the model were classified in to impact categories; non-renewable energy sources exhausting potential| final solid waste as hazardous and nonhazardous| global warming| acidification| eutrophication and human toxicity. The impacts were quantified with the weighing factors of each category to develop the environmental profiles of each scenario. In most of the categories| Source Reduction Scenario was found to be the most feasible management method| except the global warming category. The lowest contribution to G-AT was calculated for the anaerobic digestion process. In the interpretation and improvement assessment stage| the results were further evaluated and recommendations were made to improve the current solid waste management system of Ankara. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7297,2006,3,4,Life cycle assessment of a coupled solar photocatalytic-biological process for wastewater treatment,A comparative life cycle assessment (LCA) of two solar-driven advanced oxidation processes| namely heterogeneous semiconductor photocatalysis and homogeneous photo-Fenton| both coupled to biological treatment| is carried out in order to identify the environmentally preferable alternative to treat industrial wastewaters containing nonbiodegradable priority hazardous substances. The study is based on solar pilot plant tests using alpha-methyl-phenylglycine as a target substance. The LCA study is based on the experimental results obtained| along with data from an industrial-scale plant. The system under study includes production of the plant infrastructure| chemicals| electricity| transport of all these materials to the plant site| management of the spent catalyst by transport and landfilling| as well as treatment of the biodegradable effluent obtained in a conventional municipal wastewater treatment plant| and excess sludge treatment by incineration. Nine environmental impact categories are included in the LCA: global warming| ozone depletion| human toxicity| freshwater aquatic toxicity| photochemical ozone formation| acidification| eutrophication| energy consumption| and land use. The experimental results obtained in the pilot plant show that solar photo-Fenton is able to obtain a biodegradable effluent much faster than solar heterogeneous photocatalysis| implying that the latter would require a much larger solar collector area in an industrial application. The results of the LCA show that| an industrial wastewater treatment plant based on heterogeneous photocatalysis involves a higher environmental impact than the photo-Fenton alternative| which displays impact scores 80-90% lower in most impact categories assessed. These results are mainly due to the larger size of the solar collector field needed by the plant. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7597,2006,3,4,Life cycle assessment of a personal computer and its effective recycling rate,Background| Aims and Scope. Telecommunication and information technology| dramatically emerged during the last decade| has generated environmental problems by accelerating mass production| mass consumption| and mass disposal of personal computers (PCs) in Korea. In addition| it has led the Korean new economy. The Korean government has encouraged researchers and industry to study the environmental impact| adequate disposal treatment| and the reasonable recycling rate of an end-of-life personal computer. The main purpose of this research is to investigate the life cycle environmental impact of PCs and to determine the desirable or feasible recycle rate of in end-of-life PC. An LCA on a PC was performed based on different recycling scenario. Target audiences are new product developers| designers| product recovery managers and environmental policy makers who are interested in the environmental impact of PCs and recycling of end-of-life products. Methods. A target product is a Pentium W personal computer made in Korea in 2001| excluding the monitor and peripheral equipment. The procedure of the LCA followed the ISO14040 series. System boundary includes the entire life cycle of the product| including pre-manufacturing (the electrical parts and components manufacturing)| manufacturing| transportation| use| and disposal. The LCI and impact assessment database for a PC was constructed using SIMAPRO version 4.0 software and LCI information was compiled by site-specific data and the Korean national database. The LCA was performed on different recycling scenarios: one being that of the current recycling rate of 46%| and the other being the ideal condition of a 100% recycling rate. Results and Discussion. Abiotic depletion| global warming| ecotoxicity| human toxicity| acidification| ozone layer depletion| photo-oxidant formation| and eutrophication are adopted as the impact categories. The pre-manufacturing stage was a significant stage for all of the environmental parameters| besides human toxicity potential. PC manufacturing consists of rather simple processes such as assembly and packaging. For improving the environmental performance of PCs| environmental management approaches of design for the environment and green procurement are recommended. The use stage had a significant potential due to the electricity consumption produced by burning fossil fuel. The disposal stage's contribution to environmental impact was largest in human toxicity| and second largest in ozone layer depletion potential. The PC recycling was shown to inhibit all environmental impacts with the exception of the ozone depletion and ecotoxicity potential. The increase of light oil| nitric acid| sulfuric acid| and deoxidating agent consumption during the recycling process contributes to the environmental impact of ozone and ecotoxicity parameters. Current recovery and recycling technologies should be taken into account for enhancing the benefits of recycling. Anyway| the effectiveness of recycling was highlighted by this study. PC recycling reduces the total environmental impact of the product. The PC recycling is recommended to be raised up to at least 63% in order to reduce the environmental burdens of a PC in other life cycle stages. Conclusion and Recommendation. This study implies that design for the environment (DfE) in the product design stage and green procurement are recommended for improving the entire environmental performance of electronic equipment such as PCs. The recycling of waste PCs clearly reduces the environmental burden. There are| however| trade-offs among environmental parameters according to the PC recycling rate. Current recycling methods are not effective in reducing ozone depletion and ecotoxicity environmental impact. The product recovery is another key for efficient recycling. Efficient reverse logistics to collect and transport end-of-life PCs should be taken into account to enhance recycling effects. There were several electrical parts not included in this assessment| due to the unavailability of adequate data. Further studies with more detail and reliable inventories for electrical parts and sub-components are recommended. Furthermore| costs of recycling should also be treated in further research. 7255,2006,4,3,Life cycle assessment of BMT based integrated municipal solid waste management: Case study in Pudong| China,Biological and mechanical treatment (BMT) is a newly developed integrated municipal solid waste (MSW) management pretreatment process. Based on recommended BMT-based integrated MSW management system| life cycle assessment is employed to compare the environmental impact potential (EIP) of three BMT based waste treatment strategies (BMT-compost| BMT incineration and BMT landfill) with traditional landfill and incineration in Pudong New Area of Shanghai. The results show that the incineration process of MSW presents the highest acidification potential| and landfill presents both the highest global warming potential and eutrophication potential. Meanwhile| EIP of BMT-compost| BMT-incineration and BMT landfill are all decreased greatly when BMT technology is introduced into municipal solid waste management. The total environmental impact potential (TEIP) of landfill is 1.5 times larger than that of BMT-landfill. And the TEIP of incineration is also 1.5 times larger than that of BMT incineration while the TEIP of BMT compost is the lowest. The result verifies that BMT-based MSW management model would be environmentally reasonable and helpful to develop integrated MSW management system in Pudong. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7479,2006,3,4,Life cycle assessment of high temperature electrolysis for hydrogen production via nuclear energy,A life cycle assessment (LCA) of one proposed method of hydrogen production-the high temperature electrolysis of water vapor-is presented in this paper. High temperature electrolysis offers an advantage of higher energy efficiency over the conventional low-temperature alkaline electrolysis due to reduced cell potential and consequent electrical energy requirements. The primary energy source for the electrolysis will be advanced nuclear reactors operating at temperatures corresponding to those required for the high temperature electrolysis. The LCA examines the environmental impact of the combined advanced nuclear-hi h temperature electrolysis plant| focusing upon quantifying the emissions of carbon dioxide| sulfur dioxide| and nitrogen oxides per kilogram of hydrogen produced. The results are presented in terms of the global warming potential (GWP) and the acidification potential (AP) of the system. The GWP for the system is 2000g carbon dioxide equivalent and the AP| 0.15g equivalents of hydrogen ion equivalent per kilogram of hydrogen produced. The GWP and AP of this process are one-sixth and one-third. respectively| of those for the hydrogen production by steam reforming of natural gas| and are comparable to producing hydrogen from wind- or hydro-electricity powered conventional electrolysis. (c) 2005 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7294,2006,3,4,Life cycle assessment of two biowaste management systems for Barcelona| Spain,A life cycle assessment (LCA) is performed in this study in order to evaluate the environmental implications of the management of the fermentable fraction of waste in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area (BMA)| comparing the present management system with the system proposed for the future. The energy and water consumption were quantified| as well as the used area and the emissions to the atmosphere and water. The software TRACI was used in order to assess the potential impact on the categories of acidification| eutrophication| toxicity and harm to the human health (under the criteria of cancer| non-cancer and pollutants)| global warming| depletion of the ozone layer| formation of photochemical smog| water use| land use and fossil fuel use. The results show that the management system proposed for the future reduces 7 out of the 12 potential impacts analyzed| due mainly to the change in the technology of landfill (baling-wrapping landfill). However| this system requires of further research to assess the impacts on a long term. The worst option for biowaste management is the traditional landfill| based on the multibarrier concept. The results of this work suggest that the future biowaste management system is better in environmental terms than the present system. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7526,2006,3,3,Life cycle assessment of wood floor coverings - A representative study for the German flooring industry,Goal| Scope and Background. The goal of the study is a life cycle assessment according to ISO 14040-14043 for wood floor coverings (solid parquet| multilayer parquet| solid floor board and wood blocks). The representative study covers approximately 70% of all wood flooring production in Germany. The comparison of the floor coverings among each other was not the aim. Instead the study provides basic data for all wood floor coverings for a possible comparison with other floor coverings later on. The main focus was a hot spot analysis to help the involved industry partners to improve their environmental performance| and to use the results for marketing purposes. Inventory Analysis. The study covers the whole life cycle from forest management| sawmilling| manufacturing| laying and surface finishing through to refurbishment and end-of-life. The end-of-life scenario is the thermal utilisation of the floor coverings. The energy gained in the end-of-life scenario is accounted for by system expansion (avoided burden approach). Impact Assessment. In the Impact Assessment the following categories were considered: global warming (GW)| acidification (AP)| eutrophication (EP)| ozone depletion (ODP) and photooxidant formation (POCP) following the CML baseline 2000 method. Furthermore the use of primary energy is presented. The low emissions of greenhouse gases during the life cycle can lead to a negative contribution to the global warming potential if more emissions are avoided through the substitution process than are emitted during the life cycle of the product. Mainly energy consumption and the use of solvents influence the environmental impacts of the systems under analysis. The most relevant unit processes for the issue of energy consumption are 'production' and for photo-oxidant formation 'laying'| 'surface finishing' and 'refurbishment'. These are therefore the unit processes with the greatest potential for improvement. Normalisation and Sensitivity Analysis. The normalisation results show that the photo-oxidant formation potential is most significant in comparison to the other impact categories. Improvement options and the choice of the functional unit have been further explored in a sensitivity analysis. Discussion and Conclusions. The most important opportunities for improvements are located in the unit processes laying| surface finishing and refurbishment. The POCP result can be reduced significantly depending on the choice of glue and varnish at each of these stages. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed a potential for improvement in this category. No data for the production of an oil and wax finish was available. This option would be interesting to consider at in a further study. The time aspect of storing CO2 for a period of time is not considered in this paper| but will be addressed in a forthcoming paper (Nebel and Cowell 2003). 7346,2006,4,4,Life cycle impact assessment of various treatment scenarios for sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) used as an insulating gas,A life cycle environmental impact assessment was conducted for sulfur bexafluoride (SF6) used as an insulating gas in electrical devices. Eight scenarios with a variety of SF6 treatment processes were considered. For each scenario| the life cycle power consumption was determined and an inventory analysis of pollutants and toxic materials was conducted. The scenarios were compared in terms of their life cycle environmental impacts| such as power consumption| global warming| acidification| eutrophication| generation of photochemical oxidants| and generation of substances toxic to human health. The power consumption is significantly reduced by the use of a gaseous mixture of SF6 and nitrogen in comparison to when pure SF6 is used| because the power consumption required for producing SF6| which is the major power consumption process| can be reduced according to the amount of SF6 replaced by nitrogen. On the other hand| larger amounts of the pollutants associated with the transportation process will be generated for the scenarios using gaseous mixtures with smaller SF6 contents in the insulating gas. The reuse of spent SF6 after purification can also reduce the power consumption. The calculated environmental impacts were unified with two types of environmental indexes using Eco-Indicator 99 and LIME (Life-cycle Impact assessment Method based on Endpoint modeling)| and the scenarios were evaluated and compared. 7407,2006,3,3,Life cycle inventory-based analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from arable land farming systems in Hokkaido| northern Japan,To assess their impacts on net global warming| total greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2| N2O and CH4) from agricultural production in arable land cropping systems in the Tokachi region of Hokkaido| Japan| were estimated using life cycle inventory (LCI) analysis. The LCI data included CO2 emissions from on-farm and off-farm fossil fuel consumption| soil CO2 emissions induced by the decomposition of soil organic matter| direct and indirect N2O emissions from arable lands and CH4 uptake by soils| which were then aggregated in CO2-equivalents. Under plow-based conventional tillage (CT) cropping systems for winter wheat| sugar beet| adzuki bean| potato and cabbage| on-farm CO2 emissions from fuel-consuming operations such as tractor-based field operations| truck transportation and mechanical grain drying ranged from 0.424 Mg CO2 ha(-1) year(-1) for adzuki bean to 0.826 Mg CO2 ha(-1) year(-1) for winter wheat. Off-farm CO2 emissions resulting from the use of agricultural materials such as chemical fertilizers| biocides (pesticides and herbicides) and agricultural machines were estimated by input-output tables to range from 0.800 Mg CO2 ha(-1) year(-1) for winter wheat to 1.724 Mg CO2 ha(-1) year(-1) for sugar beet. Direct N2O emissions previously measured in an Andosol field of this region showed a positive correlation with N fertilizer application rates. These emissions| expressed in CO2-equivalents| ranged from 0.041 Mg CO2 ha(-1) year(-1) for potato to 0.382 Mg CO2 ha(-1) year(-1) for cabbage. Indirect N2O emissions resulting from N leaching and surface runoff were estimated to range from 0.069 Mg CO2 ha(-1) year(-1) for adzuki bean to 0.381 Mg CO2 ha(-1) year(-1) for cabbage. The rates of CH4 removal from the atmosphere by soil uptake were equivalent to only 0.020-0.042 Mg CO2 ha(-1) year(-1). From the difference in the total soil C pools (0-20 cm depth) between 1981 and 2001| annual CO2 emissions from the CT and reduced tillage (RT) soils were estimated to be 4.91 and 3.81 Mg CO2 ha(-1) year(-1)| respectively. In total| CO2-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions under CT cropping systems in the Tokachi region of Hokkaido amounted to 6.97| 7.62| 6.44| 6.64 and 7.49 Mg CO2 ha(-1) year(-1) for winter wheat| sugar beet| adzuki bean| potato and cabbage production| respectively. Overall| soil-derived CO2 emissions accounted for a large proportion (64-76%) of the total greenhouse gas emissions. This illustrates that soil management practices that enhance C sequestration in soil may be an effective means to mitigate large greenhouse gas emissions from arable land cropping systems such as those in the Tokachi region of northern Japan. Under RT cropping systems| plowing after harvesting was omitted| and total greenhouse gas emissions from winter wheat| sugar beet and adzuki bean could be reduced by 18%| 4% and 18%| respectively| mainly as a result of a lower soil organic matter decomposition rate in the RT soil and a saving on the fuels used for plowing. 7458,2006,3,3,Life cycle investigation of CO2 recovery and sequestration,The Life Cycle Assessment of four CO2 recovery technologies| combined with nine CO2 sequestration systems| serves to expand the debate of CO2 mitigation methods beyond a single issue-prevention of global warming-to a wider range of environmental concerns: resource depletion| acidic and toxic gases| wastes| etc| so that the overall| and unexpected| environmental impacts may be revealed. 7559,2006,4,4,Life cycle modelling of environmental impacts of application of processed organic municipal solid waste on agricultural land (EASEWASTE),A model capable of quantifying the potential environmental impacts of agricultural application of composted or anaerobically digested source-separated organic municipal solid waste (MSW) is presented. In addition to the direct impacts| the model accounts for savings by avoiding the production and use of commercial fertilizers. The model is part of a larger model| Environmental Assessment of Solid Waste Systems and Technology (EASEWASTE)| developed as a decision-support model| focusing On assessment of alternative waste management options. The environmental impacts of the land application of processed organic waste are quantified by emission coefficients referring to the composition of the processed waste and related to specific crop rotation as well as soil type. The model contains several default parameters based on literature data| field experiments and modelling by the agro-ecosystem model| Daisy. All data can be modified by the user allowing application of the model to other situations. A case study including four scenarios was performed to illustrate the Use of the model. One tonne of nitrogen in composted and anaerobically digested MSW was applied as fertilizer to loamy and sandy soil at a plant farm in western Denmark. Application of the processed organic waste mainly affected the environmental impact categories global warming (0.4-0.7 PE)| acidification (-0.06 (saving)-1.6 PE)| nutrient enrichment (-1.0 (saving)-3.1 PE)| and toxicity. The main contributors to these categories were nitrous oxide formation (global warming)| ammonia volatilization (acidification and nutrient enrichment)| nitrate losses (nutrient enrichment and groundwater contamination)| and heavy metal input to Soil (toxicity potentials). The local agricultural conditions as well as the composition of the processed MSW showed large influence on the environmental impacts. A range of benefits| mainly related to improved soil quality from long-term application of the processed organic waste| could not be generally quantified with respect to the chosen life cycle assessment impact categories and were therefore not included in the model. These effects should be considered in conjunction with the results of the life cycle assessment. 1755,2006,4,4,Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change| controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays,In this paper| we investigate properties long-term variations in galactic cosmic ray intensity as an important possible link in the connection between solar activity variation and global climate change. There are two main aims of the paper: (1) to estimate how solar activity influences on galactic CR long-term variations| what are the relative role in this influence of convection-diffusion modulation and drift modulation and (2) to estimate the expected part of global climate change which may be caused by the influence of solar activity cycle on climate through 11- and 22-year cosmic ray variations. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR. 1718,2006,4,4,Long-term demographic fluctuations in an orchid species driven by weather: implications for conservation planning,1. Management decisions are increasingly based on matrix models intended to predict the long-term fate of endangered species. However| certain elements of these models| such as life-state transition probabilities (vital rates)| are difficult to parameterize and their values may vary depending on external conditions such as weather. Details of how weather might influence population performance are rare| yet necessary to assess the effects of global climate change on a species' distribution. 2. Based on a 26-year data set of a population of Himantoglossum hircinum in a nature reserve in Germany| variations of life-history traits and vital rates were studied. Matrix analysis was used to identify the most important life-state transitions for population growth. Multiple linear regression was used to quantify the response of population traits and vital rates to changing weather conditions. 3. Population size increased exponentially and density effects could not be observed. Flowering plants and large plants had the highest and second highest reproductive value| respectively. The population's finite rate of increase fluctuated strongly among years; life-history traits varied strongly and were interlinked| thereby violating the assumptions of matrix modelling in a population viability analysis. 4. Some vital rates and the population growth rate showed a trend over the total period. A certain and sometimes large amount of that variability could be attributed to variability of weather conditions| with warmer winter conditions favouring population performance. Prediction of population size was fairly accurate within a time frame of 10 years| but size class structure was not. 5. Synthesis and applications. Matrix modelling proved to be unreliable for predicting long-term population dynamics| despite the long-term data set used for matrix construction. This can be explained by weather-dependent variability of vital rates driving population dynamics. A minimum study period of 4 years is necessary to produce relevant information for model development. Our study emphasizes the need for critical evaluation of management decisions based only on single short-term studies and for studies covering longer time intervals than 2-3 years. 7686,2006,2,4,Long-term effects of the 1998 coral bleaching event on reef fish assemblages,Coral bleaching events constitute compound disturbances often resulting in coral death as well as successive degradation of the reef framework. The 1997/1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was the most severe on record and affected coral reefs worldwide. The present study examined the response of fish assemblages in plots of transplanted coral before and after the 1998 bleaching. Multidimensional scaling ordinations (MDS) demonstrate significant changes in assemblage composition related to habitat alteration. Within-site variability increased with disturbance| the increase being most apparent following substrate erosion. The differences in long-term responses as opposed to short-term responses were striking. Six mo after coral death| total abundance as well as taxonomic richness had increased at one of the sites| but not the other| whereas 6 yr later| both measures had decreased significantly at both sites. Functional groups| with documented affiliations with coral| were significantly influenced by the habitat alteration. Herbivore abundance increased as an immediate response to bleaching| but was subsequently decimated in eroded habitat. The loss of structural complexity had major detrimental effects on the entire fish community. In conclusion| we present evidence of severe and long-lasting secondary impacts of a catastrophic bleaching event| with no apparent recovery. The discrepancies between short-term and long-term responses underline the importance of long-term monitoring of fish assemblages following habitat alteration. 7358,2006,2,3,Long-term forecast of oceanic conditions off California and their biological implications,[1] The impact of global warming due to an increased content of atmospheric CO(2) is studied by forcing a numerical eddy-resolving ocean model with wind stresses| heat fluxes| and open boundary conditions obtained from a state-of-the-art coupled model. Specifically| we have compared the 1986 - 1996 and 2040 - 2050 decades to describe and analyze the changes attained by several oceanographic variables in the California Current System. A richer atmosphere in CO(2) leads to increased sea surface and near-surface temperatures in the model domain and to an increased stratification along the coast that| however| is not strong enough to overcome the effect of increased upwelling favorable winds. A mild oceanic cooling is forecast below the 70-m depth| in agreement with recent studies of global warming trends. Near-surface vertical velocities increase by about 30% in April| but our simulations also forecast anomalous offshore transports in most of the coastal areas. The eddy kinetic energy decreases| on an annual mean| along the California Current main path with maximum negative anomalies in winter. The upward displacement of the 26.5 isopycnal surface| especially in the northern half of our study area| leads to an increase in the concentration of nutrients in the subsurface. The agreement between some results of this forecasting study and recent published findings would suggest that the current global warming trend would persist in the study area with similar changes to those observed over the last half century. 7715,2006,3,3,Long-term multi-gas scenarios to stabilise radiative forcing - Exploring costs and benefits within an integrated assessment framework,This paper presents a set of multi-gas mitigation scenarios that aim for stabilisation of greenhouse gas radiative forcing in 2150 at levels from 3.7 to 5.3 W/m(2). At the moment| non-CO2 gasses (methane| nitrous oxide| PFCs| HFCs and SF6) contribute to about a quarter of the global emissions. The analysis shows that including these non-CO2 gases in mitigation analysis is crucial in formulating a cost-effective response. For stabilisation at 4.5 W/m(2)| a multi-gas approach leads to 40% lower costs than an approach that would focus at CO2- only. Within the assumptions used in this study| the non-CO2 gasses contribution to total reduction is very large under less stringent targets (up to 60%)| but declines under stringent targets. While stabilising at 3.7 W/m(2) obviously leads to larger environmental benefits than the 4.5 W/m(2) case (temperature increase in 2100 are 1.9 and 2.3 degrees C| respectively)| the costs of the lower target are higher (0.80% and 0.34% of GDP in 2100| respectively). Improving knowledge on how future reduction potential for non-CO2 gasses could develop is shown to be a crucial research question. 1678,2006,2,4,Long-term population declines in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds,We present the first continent-wide analysis of the population trends of European breeding birds to show that populations of Afro-Palearctic migrant birds have shown a pattern of sustained| often severe| decline. The mean trend of inter-continental migrants was significantly negative between 1970 and 1990 and non-significantly so between 1990 and 2000. Mean population trends were positively correlated between periods| suggesting little change in the trajectory of most migrant species' populations over this 30-year period. In both periods| trends of inter-continental migrants were significantly more negative than those of short-distance migrants or residents. This negative trend appeared to be largely| although not entirely| due to declines in species wintering in dry| open habitats in Africa. Analyses of trends of 30 closely related pairs of species| one a long-distance migrant and the other not| indicated significantly more negative trends in the former| irrespective of breeding habitat. Conservation action to address these declines is required under the Convention on Migratory Species and the Pan-European Biological and Landscape Diversity Strategy| to which most European countries are signatories and which aim| respectively| to conserve migratory species and to halt the loss of biodiversity by 2010. Our results indicate that more conservation action may be required outside Europe to achieve these targets. Further research is needed to assess whether the declines are caused by factors operating on the birds' wintering grounds| breeding grounds or on migration routes| and to identify ways to reverse them. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7333,2006,2,4,Loss of habitat through inundation and the conservation status of two endemic Tasmanian Syncarid crustaceans: Allanaspides hickmani and A-helonomus,Extant representatives of the ancient crustacean family Anaspididae are restricted to the island State of Tasmania| Australia. Allanaspides hickmani and Allanaspides helonomus were first described in the early 1970s from surface pools in buttongrass moorland in two adjacent watersheds in south-west Tasmania. Both of these catchments have since been inundated for hydroelectric power generation (Lake Gordon and Serpentine Impoundments). Surveys indicate that both species persist in a small number of highly fragmented populations on the margins of the two impoundments. A. hickmani and A. helonomus have extant Areas of Occupancy of c. 21 and 54 km(2)| respectively. We estimate that inundation resulted in the loss of 85-94% of the original range of A. hickmani and c. 78% of the original range of A. helonomus. Under IUCN Red List guidelines and National threatened species legislation A. hickmani but not A. helonomus may qualify for listing as Vulnerable (Area of Occupancy < 20 km(2)). At the present time only A. hickmani is listed as Rare under Tasmanian (State) threatened species legislation but A. helonomus merits the same listing under State legislation. Global warming appears to pose the most significant potential threat to Allanaspides species. 1610,2006,2,4,Low clouds and cloud immersion enhance photosynthesis in understory species of a southern Appalachian spruce-fir forest (USA),High-attitude forests of the southern Appalachian Mountains (USA) are frequently immersed in clouds| as are many mountain forests. They may be particularly sensitive to predicted increases in cloud base altitude with global warming. However| few studies have addressed the impacts of immersion on incident sunlight and photosynthesis. Understory sunlight (photosynthetically active radiation| PAR) was measured during clear| low cloud| and cloud-immersed conditions at Mount Mitchell and Roan Mountain| NC (USA) along with accompanying photosynthesis in four representative understory species. Understory PAR was substantially less variable on immersed vs. clear days. Photosynthesis became light-saturated between similar to 100 and 400 mu mol center dot m(-2). s(-1) PAR for all species measured| corresponding closely to the sunlight environment measured during immersion. Estimated daily carbon gain was 26% greater on clear days at a more open canopy site but was 22% greater on immersed/cloudy days at a more closed canopy site. F-v/F-m (maximum photosystem II efficiency) in Abies fraseri seedlings exposed to 2.5 min full sunlight was significantly reduced (10%)| indicating potential reductions in photosynthesis on clear days. In addition| photosynthesis in microsites with canopy cover was nearly 3-fold greater under immersed (2.6 mmol center dot m(-2) center dot h(-1)) vs. clear conditions (0.9 mmol center dot m(-2) center dot h(-1)). Thus| cloud immersion provided more constant PAR regimes that enhanced photosynthesis| especially in shaded microsites. Future studies are needed to predict the survival of these refugial forests under potential changes in cloud regimes. 7419,2006,2,4,Low larval vector survival explains unstable malaria in the western Kenya highlands,Several highland areas in eastern Africa have recently suffered from serious malaria epidemics. Some models predict that| in the short term| these areas will experience more epidemics as a result of global warming. However| the various processes underlying these changes are poorly understood. We therefore investigated malaria prevalence| malaria vector densities and malaria vector survival in a highland area in western Kenya| ranging from approximately 1550-1650 m altitude. Although only five adult malaria vectors were collected during 180 light traps and 180 resting collections over a 23-month study period| malaria was prevalent among school children (average parasite prevalence: 10%). During an extensive survey of potential larval habitats| we identified only seven habitats containing Anopheles gambiae Giles s.l. larvae. Their limited number and low larval densities suggested that their contribution to the adult vector population was small. Experiments on adult and larval survival showed that at this altitude| adult mosquitoes survived inside local houses| but that larval development was severely retarded: only 2 of 500 A. gambiae s.l. larvae developed to the pupal stage| whereas all other larvae died prior to pupation. At present| high vector densities are unlikely because of unfavourable abiotic conditions in the area. However| temporary favourable conditions| such as during El Nino years| may increase larval vector survival and may lead to malaria epidemics. 7647,2006,2,3,Low sea level rise projections from mountain glaciers and icecaps under global warming,The mean sea level has been projected to rise in the 21st century as a result of global warming(1). Such projections of sea level change depend on estimated future greenhouse emissions and on differing models| but model-average results from a mid-range scenario (A1B) suggests a 0.387-m rise by 2100 (refs 1| 2). The largest contributions to sea level rise are estimated to come from thermal expansion (0.288 m) and the melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps (0.106 m)| with smaller inputs from Greenland (0.024 m) and Antarctica (20.074 m)(1). Here we apply a melt model(3) and a geometric volume model(4) to our lower estimate of ice volume(5-7) and assess the contribution of glaciers to sea level rise| excluding those in Greenland and Antarctica. We provide the first separate assessment of melt contributions from mountain glaciers and icecaps| as well as an improved treatment of volume shrinkage. We find that icecaps melt more slowly than mountain glaciers| whose area declines rapidly in the 21st century| making glaciers a limiting source for ice melt. Using two climate models| we project sea level rise due to melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps to be 0.046 and 0.051 m by 2100| about half that of previous projections(1|8). 7361,2006,2,4,Mammal mycophagy and dispersal of mycorrhizal inoculum in Oregon white oak woodlands,Oregon white oak (Quercus garryana) forms ectomycorrhizas with many fungi that are hypogeous| forming sporocarps that mature underground. Because oak seeds are heavy| most germinate under parent trees where they compete for light and water. Animals disperse acorns to more distant sites| often in shrublands| contributing to the expansion of oak woodlands. While dispersed seeds escape from competition| they may lack access to mycorrhizal inoculum or to the common mycorrhizal network of oak woodlands. The purpose of this study was to determine whether small mammals eat hypogeous sporocarps and defecate fungal spores thus dispersing mycorrhizal inoculum in oak woodlands. Mycorrhizal fungi| particularly truffles| are not "everywhere" because they are obligately mycorrhizal on trees. In addition| hypogeous fungi remain below ground and do not release spores into the air| further inhibiting dispersal of inoculum. We collected 21 species of hypogeous fungi near Oregon white oaks and confirmed the mycorrhizal status of six species. We set live traps and captured three species of rodents| Microtus californicus| Peromyscus maniculatus|and Reithrodontomys megalotis. Spores of twelve species of hypogeous fungi were in their fecal pellets. The diets of these small mammals differed in fungal composition indicating unique foraging strategies. We found that mycorrhizal communities on Oregon white oak saplings located in buck brush shrublands at distances away from mature trees included hypogeous species suggesting that small mammals disperse spores for mycorrhizal inoculum. Dispersal of mycorrhizal inoculum is an important consideration in restoration of oak habitats| in natural regeneration of oak communities| and in their possibilities for range expansion with global warming. 7566,2006,2,4,Mapping of Antarctic sea ice in the depletion phase: an indicator of climatic change?,The mapping and monitoring of the sea ice variability in the polar regions is of prime importance for global climate modelling. Apart from sea ice| spatial snow cover variability and depth estimates are needed for accurate assessment of many climate parameters required in the ice-ocean models. Mapping and analysing the spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic sea ice and snow cover are therefore highly important for polar ice-pack studies in the global climate cycle. The present study has been carried out mainly for sea ice mapping surrounding Antarctica using Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) passive microwave data during its depletion phase (November 2001 to January 2002). Sea ice concentrations and snow depths over the Antarctic sea ice have been calculated and their temporal variation patterns studied. The overall extents under all ice concentration categories during different months over the study period have decreased in the order of 1 to 3 million km(2) in comparison to the sea ice concentration categories during 1978-87 period. The thermal conductivity of snow is about an order of magnitude less than the sea ice. Hence the presence of small amount of snow on sea ice can greatly affect the heat flux between the sea surface and atmosphere. Depletion in snow depths over sea ice (from 1988-94 to 2001-02) could be observed particularly in December| though not much change has been observed in November and January. These changes (shrinking ice covers/depletion in sea ice concentration) can be attributed to some locally changing weather patterns in the Antarctic continent as well as due to regional phenomenon like global warming. 1723,2006,5,4,Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific,Understanding El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution| long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary| 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau| Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Nina than El Nino conditions| temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Nino 3.4 climate index| and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community| an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish| is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and| therefore| (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses| which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and| finally| (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past| present| and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response. 1672,2006,2,4,Mediated modeling of the impacts of enhanced UV-B radiation on ecosystem services,This article describes the use of group model building to facilitate interaction with stakeholders| synthesize research results and assist in the development of hypotheses about climate change at the global level in relation to UV-B radiation and ecosystem service valuation. The objective was to provide a platform for integration of the various research components within a multidisciplinary research project as a basis for interaction with stakeholders with backgrounds in areas other than science. An integrated summary of the scientific findings| along with stakeholder input| was intended to produce a bridge between science and policymaking. We used a mediated modeling approach that was implemented as a pilot project in Ushuaia| Argentina. The investigation was divided into two participatory workshops: data gathering and model evaluation. Scientists and the local stakeholders supported the valuation of ecosystem services as a useful common denominator for integrating the various scientific results. The concept of economic impacts in aquatic and marsh systems was represented by values for ecosystem services altered by UV-B radiation. In addition| direct local socioeconomic impacts of enhanced UV-B radiation were modeled| using data from Ushuaia. We worked with 5 global latitudinal regions| focusing on net primary production and biomass for the marine system and on 3 plant species for the marsh system. Ecosystem service values were calculated for both sectors. The synthesis model reflects the conclusions from the literature and from experimental research at the global level. UV-B is not a significant stress for the marshes| relative to the potential impact of increases in the sea level. Enhanced UV-B favors microbial dynamics in marine systems that could cause a significant shift from primary producers to bacteria at the community level. In addition| synergetic effects of UV-B and certain pollutants potentiate the shift to heterotrophs. This may impact the oceanic carbon cycle by increasing the ratio of respiratory to photosynthetic organisms in surface waters and| thus| the role of the ocean as a carbon sink for atmospheric CO2. In summary| although changes in the marine sector due to anthropogenic influences may affect global climate change| marshes are expected to primarily be affected by climate change. 7336,2006,3,2,Membranes for hydrogen purification: An important step toward a hydrogen-based economy,Production of pure molecular hydrogen is essential to the realization of the proposed "hydrogen economy" that could ultimately provide hydrogen as a clean| renewable source of energy; eliminate the industrialized world's dependence on petroleum; and reduce the generation of greenhouse gases linked to global warming. A crucial step in obtaining pure hydrogen is separating it from other gaseous compounds-mainly CO2-that often accompany hydrogen in industrial chemical reactions. Advanced membrane technology may prove to be the key to the successful| economical production of molecular hydrogen. Size-sieving glassy polymer membranes can separate H-2 on the basis of its small size. Alternatively| reverse-selective rubbery polymers can expedite the passage and| hence| removal of CO2 due to its relatively high solubility in such membranes alone or in conjunction with dissociative chemical reactions. Transition-metal membranes and their alloys can adsorb H-2 molecules| dissociate the molecules into H atoms for transport through interstitial sites| and subsequently recombine the H atoms to form molecular H-2 again on the opposite membrane side. Microporous amorphous silica and zeolite membranes comprising thin films on a multilayer porous support exhibit good sorption selectivity and high diffusion mobilities for H-2| leading to high H-2 fluxes. Finally| carbon-based membranes| including carbon nanotubes| may be viable for H-2 separation on the basis of selective surface flow and molecular sieving. A wide variety of materials challenges exist in hydrogen purification| and the objective of this issue of MRS Bulletin is to address those challenges and their potential solutions from basic principles. 7518,2006,3,4,Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from three paddy rice based cultivation systems in southwest China,To understand methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from permanently flooded rice paddy fields and to develop mitigation options| a field experiment was conducted in situ for two years (from late 2002 to early 2005) in three rice-based cultivation systems| which are a permanently flooded rice field cultivated with a single time and followed by a| non-rice season (PF)| a rice-wheat rotation system (RW) and a rice-rapeseed rotation system (RR) in a hilly area in Southwest China. The results showed that the total CH4 emissions from PF were 646.3+/-52.1 and 215.0+/-45.4 kg CH4 hm(-2) during the rice-growing period and non-rice period| respectively. Both values were much lower than many previous reports from similar regions in Southwest China. The CH4 emissions in the rice-growing season were more intensive in PF| as compared to RW and RR. Only 33% of the total annual CH4 emission in PF occurred in the non-rice season| though the duration of this season is two times longer than the rice season. The annual mean N2O flux in PF was 4.5+/-0.6 kg N2O hm(-2) yr(-1). The N2O emission in the rice-growing season was also more intensive than in the non-rice season| with only 16% of the total annual emission occurring in the non-rice season. The amounts of N2O emission in PF were ignorable compared to the CH4 emission in terms of the global warming potential (GWP). Changing PF to RW or RR not only eliminated CH4 emissions in the non-rice season| but also substantially reduced the CH4 emission during the following rice-growing period (ca. 58%| P<0.05). However| this change in cultivation system substantially increased N2O emissions| especially in the non-rice season| by a factor of 3.7 to 4.5. On the 100-year horizon| the integrated GWP of total annual CH4 and N2O emissions satisfies PF>>RR approximate to RW. The GWP of PF is higher than that of RW and RR by a factor of 2.6 and 2.7| respectively. Of the total GWP of CH4 and N2O emissions| CH4 emission contributed to 93%| 65% and 59% in PF| RW and RR| respectively. These results suggest that changing PF to RW and RR can substantially reduce not only CH4 emission but also the total GWP of the CH4 and N2O emissions. 7513,2006,3,3,Methane production during storage of anaerobically digested municipal organic waste,Anaerobic digestion of source-separated municipal organic waste is considered feasible in Denmark. The limited hydraulic retention in the biogas reactor (typically 15 d) does not allow full degradation of the organic waste. Storage of anaerobically digested municipal organic waste can therefore be a source of methane (CH4) emission that may contribute significantly to the potential global warming impact from the waste treatment system. This study provides a model for quantifying the CH4 production from stored co-digested municipal organic waste and estimates the production under typical Danish climatic conditions| thus quantifying the potential global warming impact from storage of the digested municipal organic waste before its use on agricultural land. Laboratory batch tests on CH4 production as well as temperature measurements in eight full-scale storage tanks provided data for developing a model estimating the CH4 production in storage tanks containing digested municipal organic waste. The temperatures measured in separate storage tanks on farms receiving digested slurry were linearly correlated with air temperature. In storage tanks receiving slurry directly from biogas reactors| significantly higher temperatures were measured due to the high temperatures of the effluent from the reactor. Storage tanks on Danish farms are typically emptied in April and have a constant inflow of digested material. During the warmest months the content of digested material is therefore low| which limits the yearly CH4 production from storage. 7425,2006,3,4,Methyl iodide production in the ocean: Implications for climate change,[ 1] Methyl iodide concentrations of up to 45 pmol L-1| which flux into the marine boundary layer| have been found in low latitude waters of the Atlantic and Indian oceans. These high concentrations correlate well with the abundance of Prochlorococcus| and we have confirmed the release of methyl iodide by this species in laboratory culture experiments. Extrapolating| we estimate the global ocean flux of iodine to the marine boundary layer from this single source to be 5.3 x 10(11) g I yr(-1)| which is a large fraction of the previously estimated total global flux and the implications are far reaching. Climate prediction models suggest increases in sea surface temperature and changes in biogeographical provenances in response to global warming. Such changes are likely to increase the abundance of Prochlorococcus| and we estimate a concomitant similar to 15% increase in the release of iodine species to the atmosphere. Potentially| this could help mitigate global warming. 7331,2006,2,3,Microbial community structure in three deep-sea carbonate crusts,Carbonate crusts in marine environments can act as sinks for carbon dioxide. Therefore| understanding carbonate crust formation could be important for understanding global warming. In the present study| the microbial communities of three carbonate crust samples from deep-sea mud volcanoes in the eastern Mediterranean were characterized by sequencing 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes amplified from DNA directly retrieved from the samples. In combination with the mineralogical composition of the crusts and lipid analyses| sequence data were used to assess the possible role of prokaryotes in crust formation. Collectively| the obtained data showed the presence of highly diverse communities| which were distinct in each of the carbonate crusts studied. Bacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences were found in all crusts and the majority was classified as alpha-| gamma-| and delta- Proteobacteria. Interestingly| sequences of Proteobacteria related to Halomonas and Halovibrio sp.| which can play an active role in carbonate mineral formation| were present in all crusts. Archaeal 16S rRNA gene sequences were retrieved from two of the crusts studied. Several of those were closely related to archaeal sequences of organisms that have previously been linked to the anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM). However| the majority of archaeal sequences were not related to sequences of organisms known to be involved in AOM. In combination with the strongly negative delta C-13 values of archaeal lipids| these results open the possibility that organisms with a role in AOM may be more diverse within the Archaea than previously suggested. Different communities found in the crusts could carry out similar processes that might play a role in carbonate crust formation. 1662,2006,5,4,Middle Pleistocene glacier behaviour in the Mediterranean: sedimentological evidence from the Pindus Mountains| Greece,Detailed sedimentological analyses of diamicton sequences in two areas of the Pindus Mountains| Greece| indicate multiple episodes of glacier advance and retreat during cold stages of the Middle-Pleistocene. These glacial sequences represent some of the most southerly in Europe and are important archives of regional and global climate change. The Pindus glaciers were relatively small by world standards and would have been highly responsive to changes in air temperature and precipitation. On Mount Tymphi| at least three phases of glacier advance are recorded within deposits assigned to the Skamnellian Stage (MIS 12). Further north on Mount Smolikas| a thick multiple diamicton sequence records evidence for multiple glacier advances during both the Skamnellian Stage and the Vlasian Stage (MIS 6). These records highlight the dynamic nature of glacier behaviour in the Mediterranean mountains during the Middle Pleistocene and provide new evidence for unstable cold stage climates. 1722,2006,2,4,Migration Watch: an Internet survey to monitor spring migration in Britain and Ireland,The arrival patterns of summer visitors to Britain and Ireland were monitored from 2002 to 2004 using large numbers of birdwatching lists collected by Migration Watch| an Internet-based survey. Records were only accepted from registered observers| and procedures for data validation were implemented. We show here how data on the frequency of occurrence from birdwatching lists can be analysed to estimate the timing and duration of the migration period. Aerial insectivores showed clear species-specific arrival patterns| with sand martins arriving first| followed in succession by swallows| house martins and finally swifts. Wheatears showed two peaks of arrivals| one for the British population and one for passage migrants from Greenland. The progression of arrivals from south to north and variation in arrival timing between years were also demonstrated. The method offers considerable potential for studying migration phenology at large spatial scales| and within Britain and Ireland it is now being applied throughout the year within the BTO/RSPB/BWI BirdTrack project. It could potentially be implemented at a continental scale| at which it would provide an important tool for measuring the growing impacts of global climate change on bird populations. 7481,2006,4,3,Millennial timescale carbon cycle and climate change in an efficient Earth system model,A new Earth system model| GENIE-1| is presented which comprises a 3-D frictional geostrophic ocean| phosphate-restoring marine biogeochemistry| dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice| land surface physics and carbon cycling| and a seasonal 2-D energy-moisture balance atmosphere. Three sets of model climate parameters are used to explore the robustness of the results and for traceability to earlier work. The model versions have climate sensitivity of 2.8-3.3 degrees C and predict atmospheric CO(2) close to present observations. Six idealized total fossil fuel CO(2) emissions scenarios are used to explore a range of 1|100-15|000 GtC total emissions and the effect of rate of emissions. Atmospheric CO(2) approaches equilibrium in year 3000 at 420-5|660 ppmv| giving 1.5-12.5 degrees C global warming. The ocean is a robust carbon sink of up to 6.5 GtC year(-1). Under Cybusiness as usual'| the land becomes a carbon source around year 2100 which peaks at up to 2.5 GtC year(-1). Soil carbon is lost globally| boreal vegetation generally increases| whilst under extreme forcing| dieback of some tropical and sub-tropical vegetation occurs. Average ocean surface pH drops by up to 1.15 units. A Greenland ice sheet melt threshold of 2.6 degrees C local warming is only briefly exceeded if total emissions are limited to 1|100 GtC| whilst 15|000 GtC emissions cause complete Greenland melt by year 3000| contributing 7 m to sea level rise. Total sea-level rise| including thermal expansion| is 0.4-10 m in year 3000 and ongoing. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shuts down in two out of three model versions| but only under extreme emissions including exotic fossil fuel resources. 7502,2006,5,4,Millennial-scale temperature variations in North America during the Holocene,[1] A mean continental July temperature reconstruction based on pollen records from across North America quantifies temperature variations of several timescales for the past 14|000 cal yr BP. In North America| temperatures increased nearly 4 degrees C during the late glacial| reaching maximum values between 6000 and 3000 cal yr BP| after which mean July temperatures decreased. Superimposed on this orbital-scale trend are millennial-scale temperature variations that appear coherent in structure and frequency with high-resolution ice| marine and other terrestrial paleoclimate records of the Holocene. During the Holocene| climate in North America appears to have varied periodically every similar to 1100 years rather than the similar to 1500 year cycle found during the last glacial period. Coherence at frequencies between 900 and 1100 years between land| ice| and ocean records suggests a common forcing associated with widespread surface impacts during the Holocene. These results provide important insight to the global warming debate| as the observed twentieth century temperature increase appears unprecedented compared to our mean North American temperature reconstruction of the past 14|000 years. 7402,2006,2,4,Mixing politics and science in testing the hypothesis that greenhouse warming is causing a global increase in hurricane intensity,The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active and costly season on record. Recent publications linking an increase in hurricane intensity to increasing tropical sea surface temperatures have fueled the debate on whether or not global warming is causing an increase in hurricane intensity. Because of the substantial implications of the hurricane-global warming issue for society and the immediate policy relevance associated with decision making related to Hurricane Katrina| attacks and rebuttals related to this research are being made in the media and on the World Wide Web without the rigor or accountability expected of scientific discourse. In this paper| we aim to promote a balanced and thoughtful examination of this subject by clarifying the debate surrounding the subject as to whether or not global warming is causing an increase in global hurricane intensity| illustrating a methodology of hypothesis testing to address multiple criticisms of a complex hypothesis that involves a causal chain| and providing a case study of the impact of politics| the media| and the World Wide Web on the scientific process. (Page 1025). 7256,2006,4,3,Model estimates for the sensitivity of atmospheric centers of action to global climate changes,The sensitivity of the characteristics of atmospheric centers of action (ACAs) in the Northern Hemisphere to global climate changes is analyzed on the basis of models of different complexity| including the climate model of intermediate complexity of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics| Russian Academy of Sciences and the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean. The emphasis is on the analysis of trends of the change in ACA characteristics in winter| when the long-term global warming is most considerable. The global climate models are shown to be able to describe not only the intermediate regimes of ACAs but also their dynamics. In particular| ECHAM4/OPYC3 is capable of reproducing the statistically significant connection of the characteristics of the North Pacific centers of action with El Nino/La Nina events| revealed from observational data. With the use of the results of the global climate models| the possible changes in the characteristics of centers of action in the 21st century are estimated for an increased content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 7578,2006,2,4,Model investigation of the Slope Water| north of the Gulf Stream,Four years of output from a high resolution (1/10 degrees) simulation of the North Atlantic is used to investigate the maintenance of the Slope Water properties in the region between the Gulf Stream and the continental shelf. The simulation maintains a distinct slope water region that is cooler and fresher than the Gulf Stream in spite of the active eddy field and lateral mixing. A temperature budget shows that the Labrador Current and the local surface fluxes are equally important in maintaining the water mass. Two consequences of the analysis are that accurate simulation of the amount of Labrador Current water getting around the Tail of the Grand Bank is crucial to maintaining a viable slope water mass| and a systematic reduction in surface cooling due to global warming has the potential to reduce the formation of Slope Water and increase the influence of the Gulf Stream along the shelf. 1710,2006,3,4,Modeling generator power plant portfolios and pollution taxes in electric power supply chain networks: A transportation network equilibrium transformation,Global climate change and fuel security risks have encouraged international and regional adoption of pollution/carbon taxes. A major portion of such policy interventions is directed at the electric power industry with taxes applied according to the type of fuel used by the power generators in their power plants. This paper proposes an electric power supply chain network model that captures the behavior of power generators faced with a portfolio of power plant options and subject to pollution taxes. We demonstrate that this general model can be reformulated as a transportation network equilibrium model with elastic demands and qualitatively analyzed and solved as such. The connections between these two different modeling schemas is done through finite-dimensional variational inequality theory. The numerical examples illustrate how changes in the pollution/carbon taxes affect the equilibrium electric power supply chain network production outputs| the transactions between the various decision-makers the demand market prices| as well as the total amount of carbon emissions generated. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7463,2006,2,4,Modeling hydrology and silicon-carbon interactions in taiga and tundra biomes from a landscape perspective: Implications for global warming feedbacks,[ 1] We used a simple hydrological-biogeochemical mixing model to test the hypothesis that export of total organic carbon occurring mainly during spring in taiga and tundra watersheds might be compensated by production and export of bicarbonate (HCO(3)(-)) from groundwater during the rest of the year. The investigated watersheds are located in northern Sweden close to the Arctic Circle. An elevated spring flow peak due to snowmelt characterizes the hydrology of boreal and arctic river systems. During this snowmelt| total organic carbon (TOC)| previously stored as soil carbon| is flushed and exported from the watersheds| and can be released to the atmosphere via heterotrophic remineralization during riverine transport to the sea| thereby contributing to atmospheric CO(2). The TOC yields of the watersheds investigated increased with vegetation and peat cover and ranged across watersheds from 0.5 to 2.8 tons km(-2) yr(-1). During frozen periods| streamflow is dominated by "old'' groundwater. This water has percolated through the soils and is rich in DSi and bicarbonate; that is| atmospheric carbon that has been "consumed'' in chemical weathering processes is partly exported as bicarbonate to the sea| where carbon is stored as CaCO(3) for geological time. The bicarbonate export of the watersheds investigated was between 0.4 and 1.2 tons C km(-2) yr(-1) corresponding to 15 - 73% of the TOC export. Very likely| global warming will affect water flow through the soils in taiga and tundra ecosystems and thus will have an effect on watershed carbon budgets. This bicarbonate export may compensate for significant amounts of the exported TOC| thereby reducing the positive feedback to atmospheric CO(2). 7694,2006,2,4,Modeling population dynamics of a tea pest with temperature-dependent development: predicting emergence timing and potential damage,The tea leaf roller| Caloptilia theivora Walsingham (Lepidoptera: Gracillariinae)| is one of the serious pests of tea plants in Japan. To understand the mechanism of seasonal occurrence of this insect pest| we developed a population dynamics model that explicitly incorporates the temperature-dependent development of the pest. The model predictions were compared with observed captures in pheromone traps at the experimental site of the Kagoshima Tea Experiment Research Station in Japan. The results showed that the emergence timing of the insect pest observed in the field was determined primarily by temperature. The relationship between the timing of adult emergence and the leaf damage level was also studied using a logistic regression model. The infestation level decreased as the interval between the adult peak emergence date and the date of tea plucking increased| implying that asynchrony between plant phenology and emergence of the insect pest is a critical factor reducing damage level. We examined how the damage level changes according to global warming. Increased temperature made the timing of insect appearance forward and enhance asynchrony of plant-pest phenology. Therefore| reduction of damage level by the insect pest is expected under global warming. 1711,2006,2,4,Modelling climate-change impacts on stream temperature of Formosan landlocked salmon habitat,A physics-based model is provided for predicting the impact of climate change on stream temperature and| in turn| on Formosan landlocked salmon (Oncorhynchus masou formosanus) habitat. Because upstream watersheds on Taiwan Island are surrounded with hi-h and steep mountains| the influence of mountain shading on solar radiation and longwave radiation is taken into account by using a digital elevation model. Projections using CGCM2 and HADCM3 models and CCCM and GISS models provided information on future climatic conditions. The results indicate that annual average stream temperatures may rise by 0.5 degrees C (HADCM3 short term) to 2.9 degrees C (CGCM2 long term) due to climate change. The simulation results also indicate that the average suitable habitat for the Formosan landlocked salmon may decline by 333 m (HADCM3 short term) to 1633 m (CGCM2 long term) and 166 m (HADCM3 short term) to 1833 m (CGCM2 long term) depending on which thermal criterion (17 degrees C and 18 degrees C respectively) is applied. The results of this study draw attention to the tasks of Formosan landlocked salmon conservation agencies| not only with regard to restoration plans of the local environment| but also to the mitigation strategies to global climate change that are necessary and require further research. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 7459,2006,4,4,Modelling current trends in Northern Hemisphere temperatures,Fitting a trend is of interest in many disciplines| but it is of particular importance in climatology| where estimating the current and recent trend in temperature is thought to provide a major indication of the presence of global warming. A range of ad hoc methods of trend fitting have been proposed| with little consensus as to the most appropriate techniques to use. The aim of this paper is to consider a range of trend extraction techniques| none of which require 'padding' out the series beyond the end of the available observations| and to use these to estimate the trend of annual mean Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperatures. A comparison of the trends estimated by these methods thus provides a robust indication of the likely range of current trend temperature increases and hence inform| in a timely quantitative fashion| arguments based on global temperature data concerning the nature and extent of global warming and climate change. For the complete sample 1856-2003| the trend is characterised as having long waves about an underlying increasing level. Since around 1970| all techniques display a pronounced warming trend. However| they also provide a range of trend functions so that extrapolation far into the future would be a hazardous exercise. Copyright (c) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. 1663,2006,2,4,Modelling dispersal of a temperate insect in a changing climate,We construct a novel individual-based random-walk model to assess how predicted global climate change might affect the dispersal rates of a temperate insect. Using a novel approach we obtained accurate field measurements of daily movements for individuals over time to parameterize our model. Males were found to move significantly further on average than females. Significant variation in movement was evident among individuals; the most dispersive individuals moved up to five (females) and seven (males) times as far on average as the least dispersive individuals. Mean relative daily movement of both males and females were exponentially related to maximum daily temperature recorded within the grass sward. Variability| both within and among individuals| in relative daily movement was incorporated into the model using gamma probability distributions. Resultant dispersal functions for seasonal movement are predicted to be highly leptokurtic| which agrees well with observations from the field. Predictions of the model suggest that for populations at the polewards edge of the current range an increase of 3-5 degrees C in daily maximum temperature may increase the proportion of long-distance dispersers (those characterized as comprising the top 0.1 % of furthest dispersing individuals under local conditions experienced during the 1963-1990 period) by up to 70%. 7666,2006,2,4,Modelling effects of temperature and feeding level on the life cycle of the midge Chironomus riparius: An energy-based modelling approach,Survival| growth| emergence and reproduction were monitored during the life cycle of Chironomus riparius in the laboratory at five temperatures from 15 to 27 degrees C and two feeding diets (ad libitum and limiting). Data were analysed using an energy-based model. Survival was not affected. In ad libitum conditions| growth rate increased linearly with temperature as a consequence of quicker food ingestion. Our model parameterised using the data in ad libitum conditions could account for the data obtained in food limited conditions. Reproduction was not influenced by temperature because the decrease of the duration of the period of energetic investment into reproduction compensated for the increase of the feeding rate when temperature increased. Based on these results| we then built a model describing life cycles in the field which may contribute to the field assessment of the consequences of global warming or pollution. 1699,2006,2,4,Modelling responses of pine savannas to climate change and large-scale disturbance,Global warming can potentially influence ecological communities through altered disturbance regimes in addition to increased temperatures. We investigate the response of pine savannas in the southeastern United States to global warming using a simple Lotka-Volterra competition model together with predicted changes to fire and hurricane disturbance regimes with global climate change. In the southeastern United States| decreased frequency of both fires and hurricanes with global warming will shift pine savannas toward a forested state. A CO2 fertilization effect that increases the growth rate of tree populations will also push southeastern landscapes from open savannas towards closed forests. Transient dynamics associated with climate driven changes in vegetation will last on the order of decades to a century. In our model| the sensitivity of savannas to relative changes in the frequency of fire versus hurricanes is linearly dependent on the growth rate and mortality of trees in fire and hurricane disturbances. 7399,2006,5,4,Modelling the primary control of paleogeography on Cretaceous climate,The low thermal gradients and clement winters characterizing climates of the Cretaceous period reveal that the climate system has modes of behaviour quite different from the present. Recent proxy data analyses suggest that some aspects of climate change within the Cretaceous appear to be decoupled from CO(2) evolution at the geological time scale. Here| we investigate the impact of paleogeography on the global climate with the climate model FOAM| using a Early| Mid and Late Cretaceous continental configuration. We find that changes in geography from the Early to Mid-to-Late Cretaceous cause a large decrease of the seasonal cycle. First order identified processes are the decreased continentality of the mid-to-high latitudes from the Mid Cretaceous and the increase of the latent heat transport into the winter hemisphere which induce a wetter and a cloudier atmosphere capable of diminishing the winter cooling of the continents. Owing to the modifications of the seasonal cycle in response to the tectonic forcing| the equator-to-pole thermal gradient is reduced from the Early to Mid-to-Late Cretaceous. We nevertheless still do not succeed in simulating warm enough polar temperatures and a definitive theory still waits for an integrated approach explicitly accounting for each factor influencing the thermal gradient (ocean dynamics| stratospheric clouds| and vegetation). Our study also suggests a mechanism that can weaken the correlation between CO(2) and climate changes during the Cretaceous as evolving geography from the Early to Late Cretaceous| through the response of the water cycle and the changes in the thermal gradient| results in a 3.8 degrees C global warming at a constant atmospheric CO(2) level. This demonstrates that the paleogeography may affect the relation between PCO(2) and the climate history and consequently has to be accounted for when linking the atmospheric CO(2) evolution and the climate record at geological time scales. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7504,2006,2,4,Moderate increase of mean daily temperature adversely affects fruit set of Lycopersicon esculentum by disrupting specific physiological processes in male reproductive development,Background and Aims Global warming is gaining significance as a threat to natural and managed ecosystems since temperature is one of the major environmental factors affecting plant productivity. Hence| the effects of moderate temperature increase on the growth and development of the tomato plant (Lycopersicon esculentum) were investigated. Methods Plants were grown at 32/26 degrees C as a moderately elevated temperature stress (METS) treatment or at 28/22 degrees C (day/night temperatures) as a control with natural light conditions. Vegetative growth and reproductive development as well as sugar content and metabolism| proline content and translocation in the androecium were investigated. Key Results METS did not cause a significant change in biomass| the number of flowers| or the number of pollen grains produced| but there was a significant decrease in the number of fruit set| pollen viability and the number of pollen grains released. Glucose and fructose contents in the androecium (i.e. all stamens from one flower) were generally higher in the control than METS| but sucrose was higher in METS. Coincidently| the mRNA transcript abundance of acid invertase in the androecium was decreased by METS. Proline contents in the androecium were almost the same in the control and METS| while the mRNA transcript level of proline transporter 1| which expresses specifically at the surface of microspores| was significantly decreased by METS. Conclusions The research indicated that failure of tomato fruit set under a moderately increased temperature above optimal is due to the disruption of sugar metabolism and proline translocation during the narrow window of male reproductive development. 7655,2006,5,4,Modern processes and historical factors in the origin of the African element in Latin America,The combination of factors that account for present-day distributions of organisms is unique to individual lineages and varies over time. An observation relevant to some lineages at some point in their history is that hurricane frequency and intensity appears to be increasing with global warming. If so| then directional winds from Africa to the Caribbean region (the trade winds)| from South America to Africa (the westerlies)| the ocean currents they induce| and the transport of the floating islands they carry| were likely more intense during the generally warmer-than-present rertiary Period and especially at peaks of exceptional warmth. These peaks occurred in the Paleoccne/Eocene (65-45 Ma)| in the early to middle Miocene (broadly between similar to 23-12 Ma)| in the middle Pliocene (3-4 Ma)| and probably extended slightly later in the lower latitudes. The Paleocene/Eocene interval includes the time when the distance between Africa and South America was one-half to two-thirds that of the present| and when the Greater Antilles island are was first becoming emergent as increasing target areas for propagules. The second and third intervals of warming include the times when molecular evidence suggests divergence between several African and New World lineages. Thus| wind and ocean transport of organisms and propagules throughout the Tertiary| and especially at peaks of warmth| was likely a more important means of dispersal than would seem plausible under present conditions. 7584,2006,2,4,Moisture controls on trace gas fluxes in semiarid riparian soils,Variability in seasonal soil moisture (SM) and temperature (T) can alter ecosystem/atmosphere exchange of the trace gases carbon dioxide (CO)| nitrous oxide (N2O)| and methane (CH4). This study reports the impact of year-round SM status on trace gas fluxes in three semiarid vegetation zones| mesquite (30 g organic C kg(-1) soil)| open/ forb (6 g organic C kg(-1) soil)| and sacaton (18 g organic C kg(-1) soil) from July 2002-September 2003 in southeastern Arizona. Carbon dioxide and N2O emissions were highly dependent on available SM and T. During the heavy rains of the 2002 monsoon (238 mm total rainfall)| large differences in soil C content did not correlate with variations in CO2 production| as efflux averaged 235.6 +/- 39.5 mg CO2 m(-2) h(-1) over all sites. In 2003| limited monsoon rain (95 mm total rainfall) reduced CO2 emissions by 19% (mesquite)| 40% (open)| and 30% (sacaton)| compared with 2002. Nitrous oxide emissions averaged 21.1 +/- 13.4 (mesquite)| 2.1 +/- 4.4 (open)| and 3.9 +/- 5.2 mu g N2O m(-2) h(-1) (sacaton) during the 2002 monsoon. Limited monsoon 2003 rainfall reduced N2O emissions by 47% in the mesquite| but N2O production increased in the open (55%) and sacaton (5%) sites. Following a dry winter and spring 2002 (15 mm total rainfall)| premonsoon CH| consumption at all sites was close to zero| but following monsoon moisture input| the CH4 sink averaged 26.1 +/- 6.3 tLg CH4 m(-1) h(-1) through April 2003. Laboratory incubations showed potentials for CH4 oxidation from 0 to 45 cm| suggesting that as the soil surface dried| CH| oxidation activity shifted downward in the sandy soils. Predicted climate change shifts in annual precipitation from one dominated by summer monsoon rainfall to one with higher winter precipitation may reduce soil CO| and N2O emissions while promoting CH4 oxidation rates in semiarid riparian soils of the Southwest| potentially acting as a negative feedback for future global warming. 1665,2006,2,4,Monitoring coral bleaching using a colour reference card,Assessment of the extent of coral bleaching has become an important part of studies that aim to understand the condition of coral reefs. In this study a reference card that uses differences in coral colour was developed as an inexpensive| rapid and non-invasive method for the assessment of bleaching. The card uses a 6 point brightness/saturation scale within four colour hues to record changes in bleaching state. Changes on the scale of 2 units or more reflect a change in symbiont density and chlorophyll a content| and therefore the bleaching state of the coral. When used by non-specialist observers in the field (here on an intertidal reef flat)| there was an inter-observer error of I colour score. This technique improves on existing subjective assessment of bleaching state by visual observation and offers the potential for rapid| wide-area assessment of changing coral condition. 7450,2006,2,4,Morphophysiological monitoring of winter wheat in spring in the context of global climate warming,Data on morphophysiological monitoring of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivar Mironovskaya 808 grown in Hoagland and Arnon solution in a greenhouse and transferred to natural conditions in March-April 2004 with the mean daily temperature of 0.6 +/- 0.7 degrees C within the exposure period of 42 days are presented. Water content| dry weight of plants and their organs| frost hardiness of plants| degree of tissue damage by frost| CO2 metabolism (photosynthesis and respiration)| concentrations of sugars in tissues and proportions between different sugar forms| and activities of soluble and insoluble acid and alkaline phosphatases were monitored. Monitoring was carried out for three experimental variants simulating different microclimatic conditions in spring: after snow melting (experiment I)| under ice crust (experiment II)| and under snow cover (experiment III). Plants in experiments III and II demonstrated a higher water content in tissues| lower frost hardiness| higher rates of biomass loss| lower concentration of sugars and lower di-to monosaccharide ratio in tissues| and higher total invertase activity| particularly| cell wall-associated acid invertase activity. The dark respiration rates at 0 degrees C did not significantly differ between experimental variants. The photosynthetic capacity at this measurement temperature was maintained in all experimental variants being most pronounced in experiment II with the most intense photoinhibition under natural conditions. Comparison of experiments III and II with experiment I is used to discuss the negative effect of changes in certain microclimatic indices associated with global warming and leading to plant exhaustion and death from frost in spring. 7470,2006,2,3,Mountain weather and climate: A general overview and a focus on climatic change in the Alps,Meteorological and climatic processes in mountain regions play a key role in many environmental systems| in particular the quantity and quality of water that influences both aquatic ecosystems and economic systems often far beyond the boundaries of the mountains themselves. This paper will provide a general overview of some of the particular characteristics of mountain weather and climate| to highlight some of the unique atmospheric features that are associated with regions of complex topography. The second part of the paper will focus upon characteristics of climate and climatic change in the European Alps| a region with a wealth of high quality data that allows an assessment on how climate and dependent environmental systems have evolved in the course of the 20th century and how alpine climate may undergo further changes to "global warming" in the 21st century| as the atmosphere responds to increasing levels of greenhouse gases that are expected in coming decades. 7716,2006,3,2,Multi-gas emission reduction for climate change policy: An application of Fund,The costs of greenhouse gas emission reduction with abatement of carbon dioxide| methane| and nitrous oxide are investigated using the FUND model. The central policy scenario keeps anthropogenic radiative forcing below 4.5 Wm(2). If CO2 emission reduction were the only possibility to meet this target| the net present value of consumption losses would be $45 trillion; with abatement of the other gases added| costs fall to $33 trillion. The bulk of these costs savings can be ascribed to reductions of nitrous oxide. Because nitrous oxide emission reduction is so much more important than methane emission reduction| the choice of equivalence metric between the greenhouse gases does not matter much. Sensitivity analyses show that the shape of the cost curves for CH4 and N2O emission reductions matter| and that the inclusion of sulphate aerosols makes policy targets substantially harder to achieve. The costs of emission reduction vary greatly with the choice of stabilisation target. A target of 4.5 Wm-2 is not justified by our current knowledge of the damage costs of climate change. 7582,2006,3,3,Multi-gas emissions pathways to meet climate targets,So far| climate change mitigation pathways focus mostly on CO2 and a limited number of climate targets. Comprehensive studies of emission implications have been hindered by the absence of a flexible method to generate multi-gas emissions pathways| user-definable in shape and the climate target. The presented method 'Equal Quantile Walk' (EQW) is intended to fill this gap| building upon and complementing existing multi-gas emission scenarios. The EQW method generates new mitigation pathways by 'walking along equal quantile paths' of the emission distributions derived from existing multi-gas IPCC baseline and stabilization scenarios. Considered emissions include those of CO2 and all other major radiative forcing agents (greenhouse gases| ozone precursors and sulphur aerosols). Sample EQW pathways are derived for stabilization at 350 ppm to 750 ppm CO2 concentrations and compared to WRE profiles. Furthermore| the ability of the method to analyze emission implications in a probabilistic multi-gas framework is demonstrated. The probability of overshooting a 2 degrees C climate target is derived by using different sets of EQW radiative forcing peaking pathways. If the probability shall not be increased above 30%| it seems necessary to peak CO2 equivalence concentrations around 475 ppm and return to lower levels after peaking (below 400 ppm). EQW emissions pathways can be applied in studies relating to Article 2 of the UNFCCC| for the analysis of climate impacts| adaptation and emission control implications associated with certain climate targets. See www.simcap.org for EQW-software and data. 7718,2006,3,3,Multigas mitigation: An economic analysis using GRAPE model,Future global warming may depend strongly on the potential for abating emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Flexibility in implementing climate change mitigation policies can significantly reduce mitigation costs and has three dimensions; space| time and gas species. Therefore| multiple greenhouse gas reduction flexibility should be considered. The emission and reduction potential of CO2 and non-CO2 GHGs are assessed here using an integrated assessment model under climate change targets. The implications on gas life as well as abatement timing uncertainty on costs| technological availability| etc. are discussed. The introduction of additional multigas reductions will cut the economic burden of achieving a given climate change target. The conclusions are threefold; (1) Multigas mitigation is a cost effective strategy compared to CO2-only mitigation under the same climate target| (2) CO2 mitigation is expected to lead to ancillary reductions in CH4| N2O and SOx emissions| and (3) There is great uncertainty in the assessment of non-CO2 GHG mitigation opportunities. 7508,2006,2,4,Multigrain sedimentation/erosion model based on cross-shore equilibrium sediment distribution: Application to nourishment design,In the light of global warming and sea level rise there are many coastal beaches that suffer from erosion. Beach nourishment has become a common practice to maintain the sediment balance on a shore-face. In this paper| a three-dimensional numerical model for evaluating long-term impact of beach nourishment projects has been developed. The model addresses the longstanding complex issue of coastal morphology and sediment grain size distribution from an unconventional angle| which exploits the strong links between grain size distribution and the prevailing transport direction of each sediment constituent under 'average' wave and storm action. The present model predicts the redistribution of nourished sediment according to the subtle clues implied by equilibrium distribution curves and latest coastal wave transformation theories. After verification against recent field observations in Terschelling| The Netherlands| the model was used to predict long-term effects of different beach nourishment strategies. It was found that: (a) given the source sediment available in Terschelling the tactics of large volume and less frequent implementation are better than otherwise; and (b) from a pure engineering point of view| waterline nourishment outperforms offshore trough nourishment. The model offers an additional tool for coastal engineers to evaluate the feasibility| effectiveness and the optimization of dumping locations for beach nourishment projects. It is also a useful tool for stratigraphic modelling of shallow-marine sedimentation in conjunction with sea level changes. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7259,2006,3,3,Municipal solid waste characterization and its assessment for potential methane generation: A case study,There has been a significant increase in municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in India during the last few decades and its management has become a major issue because the poor waste management practices affect the health and amenity of the cities. In the present study| various physico-chemical parameters of the MSW were analyzed to characterize the waste dumped at Gazipur landfill site in Delhi| India| which shows that it contains a high fraction of degradable organic components. The decomposition of organic components produces methane| a significant contributor to global warming. Based on the waste composition| waste age and the total amount dumped| a first-order decay model (FOD) was applied to estimate the methane generation potential of the Gazipur landfill site| which yields an estimate of 15.3 Gg/year. This value accounts to about 1-3% of existing Indian landfill methane emission estimates. Based on the investigation of Gazipur landfill| we estimate Indian landfill methane emissions at 1.25 Tg/year or 1.68 Tg/year of methane generation potential. These values are within the range of existing estimates. A comparison of FOD with a recently proposed triangular model was also performed and it shows that both models can be used for the estimation of methane generation. However| the decrease of the emission after closure is more gradual in the case of the first-order model| leading to larger gas production predictions after more than 10 years of closure. The regional and global implications of national landfill methane emission are also discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7242,2006,5,3,Nannoplankton extinction and origination across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM| similar to 55 million years ago) was an interval of global warming and ocean acidification attributed to rapid release and oxidation of buried carbon. We show that the onset of the PETM coincided with a prominent increase in the origination and extinction of calcareous phytoplankton. Yet major perturbation of the surface-water saturation state across the PETM was not detrimental to the survival of most calcareous nannoplankton taxa and did not impart a calcification or ecological bias to the pattern of evolutionary turnover. Instead| the rate of environmental change appears to have driven turnover| preferentially affecting rare taxa living close to their viable limits. 7326,2006,3,3,Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options,Social| technological| economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however| these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example| introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper| we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors| and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050| assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios| tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet| people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7452,2006,2,3,Natural and artificial linkages and discontinuities in a Mediterranean landscape: Some case studies from the Durance Valley| France,Morphological linkages and discontinuities have been defined in both natural and anthropogenic terms. Such terms are considered useful in understanding the spatial and temporal roles of erosion from source areas| as indicated by linkages| when they are in operation| and by discontinuities| which act as storages or buffers in stabilizing landscapes. The latter slow erosion and promote conservation particularly in Mediterranean areas| where human impacts are thought to be more important than natural processes. These concepts are illustrated by reference to three case studies in the Durance Valley: in a part of a Mediterranean landscape| on a floodplain segment and along of the main channel. While there are major concerns in more semiarid parts of these seasonally dry zones| present conditions in the more humid south of France| supplied also by exotic upper catchments| are under less threat of degradation. This is until such times when water shortages may occur| due to changed regimes| as anticipated in the predicted global warming climate changes| and by the continuing development in this area. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7397,2006,2,4,Natural disasters and the challenge of extreme events: risk management from an insurance perspective,Loss statistics for natural disasters demonstrate| also after correction for inflation| a dramatic increase of the loss burden since 1950. This increase is driven by a concentration of population and values in urban areas| the development of highly exposed coastal and valley regions| the complexity of modern societies and technologies and probably| also by the beginning consequences of global warming. This process will continue unless remedial action will be taken. Managing the risk from natural disasters starts with identification of the hazards. The next step is the evaluation of the risk| where risk is a function of hazard| exposed values or human lives and the vulnerability of the exposed objects. Probabilistic computer models have been developed for the proper assessment of risks since the late 1980s. The final steps are controlling and financing future losses. Natural disaster insurance plays a key role in this context| but also private parties and governments have to share a part of the risk. A main responsibility of governments is to formulate regulations for building construction and land use. The insurance sector and the state have to act together in order to create incentives for building and business owners to take loss prevention measures. A further challenge for the insurance sector is to transfer a portion of the risk to the capital markets| and to serve better the needs of the poor. Catastrophe bonds and microinsurance are the answer to such challenges. The mechanisms described above have been developed to cope with well-known disasters like earthquakes| windstorms and floods. They can be applied| in principle| also to less well investigated and less frequent extreme disasters: submarine slides| great volcanic eruptions| meteorite impacts and tsunamis which may arise from all these hazards. But there is an urgent need to improve the state of knowledge on these more exotic hazards in order to reduce the high uncertainty in actual risk evaluation to an acceptable level. Due to the rarity of such extreme events| specific risk prevention measure.|| are hardly justified with exception of attempts to divert earth-orbit crossing meteorites from their dangerous path. For the industry it is particularly important to achieve full transparency as regards covered and non-covered risks and to define in a systematic manner the limits of insurability for super-disasters. 1700,2006,4,4,Natural disturbances and the physiognomy of pine savannas: A phenomenological model,Question: The decline of the Pinus palustris ecosystems has resulted from anthropogenic influences| such as conversion to pine plantation forestry| agriculture and land development| all of which are closely related to increases in human populations. Other effects| however| have arisen from alterations in disturbance regimes that maintain the structure and function of these ecosystems. How have alterations of the disturbance regime altered the physiognomy of 'old-growth' stands| and what are the implications for ecosystem conservation and restoration? Methods: In contrast to models that emphasize close interactions among the vertically complex strata| we develop a conceptual phenomenological model for the physiognomic structure of Pinus palustris stands. We relate two natural disturbances (tropical storms and fire) that affect different stages of the life cycle to different aspects of the physiognomic structure. We then compare overstorey stand structure and ground cover composition of two old-growth longleaf stands near the extremes of different composite disturbance regimes: the Wade Tract (frequent hurricanes and fire) and the Boyd Tract (infrequent hurricanes and long-term fire exclusion). Results: We predict that tropical storms and fires have different effects on stand physiognomy. Tropical storms are periodic| and sometimes intense| whereas fires are more frequent and less intense. Hurricanes directly influence the overstorey via wind-caused damage and mortality| and indirectly influence the herb layer by altering the spatial distribution of shading and litter accumulation. Fire exerts direct effects on juvenile stages and indirect effects on the herb layer via fine fuel consumption and selective mortality of potential competitors of P. palustris juveniles. These differences in effects of disturbances can result in widely different physiognomies for P. palustris stands. Finally| some global climate change scenarios have suggested that changes may occur in tropical storm and fire regimes| altering frequency and severity. Such changes may greatly affect pine stands| and ultimately entire pine savanna ecosystems. Conclusions: Our phenomenological model of disturbance regimes in Pinus palustris old-growth produces very different physiognomies for different disturbances regimes that reflect natural process and human management actions. This model can be used to derive restoration strategies for pine savannas that are linked to reinstitution of important ecological processes rather than specific physiognomic states. 7410,2006,3,3,Natural gas based direct steelmaking using melt circulation: technoeconomic feasibility,Steelmaking based on natural gas rather than coal is proposed as a logical solution to concerns about climate change and global warming. Highly preheated iron ore fines are fed onto the surface of the molten iron carrier medium in a single loop melt circulation reactor. A thin layer of liquid iron ore is formed and reduction occurs as the molten iron oxide containing melt is transported along the length of the reduction arm countercurrent to natural gas in situ generated reducing gases flowing at high velocity. Issues relating to Kelvin-Helmholtz instability are addressed and detailed consideration is given to soot formation and its subsequent gasification in the bulk gas phase. Key parameters for 1 Mtpa liquid steel are evaluated based on thermal decomposition of methane by convective heat transfer and reduction of ferrous oxide controlled by gaseous diffusion. A breakdown of capital and operating costs indicates the relative importance of key elements. 1735,2006,2,4,Nest-site selection of endangered cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) populations affected by anthropogenic disturbance: present and future conservation implications,The cinereous vulture Aegypius monachus is the largest bird of the western Palaearctic| and is threatened over its entire range of distribution. Considering explicitly the influence of human interference| we studied breeding habitat selection in seven breeding colonies using a geographic information system and multivariate statistical models. Steep areas far from human disturbance constituted the preferential breeding sites in all the colonies. The nesting substrate and climatic conditions varied between colonies| but always corresponded to non-extreme climates| and included tree species of adequate size. Since human activities influenced the breeding habitat choice| there is a potential for management policies that can clearly be of benefit for the conservation of this vulture. These would fundamentally be as follows: (1) forestry activity should be oriented to protecting oak (Quercus spp.) and pine (Pinus ssp.) stands| especially individual trees of great height| and to replacing eucalyptus (Eucalyptus spp.) with autochthonous species; (2) activities (recreational| economic| etc.) around the breeding areas should be scheduled and spatially organized to avoid disturbance| particularly those deriving from the proximity of roads and tracks; (3) the expected effects of global warming should be compensated| identifying future sites where the habitat can be managed| supplementary food can be provided and reserves can be designed. 7441,2006,3,4,Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in irrigated cropping systems in northeastern Colorado,The impact of management on global warming potential (GWP)| crop production| and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) in irrigated agriculture is not well documented. A no-fill (NT) cropping systems study initiated in 1999 to evaluate soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration potential in irrigated agriculture was used in this study to make trace gas flux measurements for 3 yr to facilitate a complete greenhouse gas accounting of GWP and GHGI. Fluxes of CO2| CH4| and N2O were measured using static| vented chambers| one to three times per week| year round| from April 2002 through October 2004 within conventional-till continuous corn (CT-CC) and NT continuous corn (NT-CC) plots and in NT corn-soybean rotation (NT-CB) plots. Nitrogen fertilizer rates ranged from 0 to 224 kg N ha(-1). Methane fluxes were small and did not differ between tillage systems. Nitrous oxide fluxes increased linearly with increasing N fertilizer rate each year| but emission rates varied with years. Carbon dioxide efflux was higher in CT compared to NT in 2002 but was not different by tillage in 2003 or 2004. Based on soil respiration and residue C inputs| NT soils were net sinks of GWP when adequate fertilizer was added to maintain crop production. The CT soils were smaller net sinks for GWP than NT soils. The determinant for the net GWP relationship was a balance between soil respiration and N2O emissions. Based on soil C sequestration| only NT soils were net sinks for GWP. Both estimates of GWP and GHGI indicate that when appropriate crop production levels are achieved| net CO2 emissions are reduced. The results suggest that economic viability and environmental conservation can be achieved by minimizing tillage and utilizing appropriate levels of fertilizer. 1736,2006,4,4,Niche breadth| competitive strength and range size of tree species: a trade-off based framework to understand species distribution,Understanding the mechanisms causing latitudinal gradients in species richness and species range size is a central issue in ecology| particularly in the current context of global climate change. Different hypotheses have been put forward to explain these patterns| emphasizing climatic variability| energy availability and competition. Here we show| using a comparative analysis controlling for phylogeny on 234 temperate/boreal tree species| that these hypotheses can be included into a single framework in an attempt to explain latitudinal gradients in species range size. We find that species tend to have larger ranges when (i) closer to the poles| (ii) successionally seral| (iii) having small and light seeds| and (iv) having short generations. The patterns can simply be explained by energy constraints associated with different life-history strategies. Overall| these findings shed a new light on our understanding of species distribution and biodiversity patterns| bringing new insights into underlying large-scale evolutionary processes. 7290,2006,2,3,Nitrogen fixation amplifies the ocean biogeochemical response to decadal timescale variations in mineral dust deposition,A global ocean biogeochemical model is used to quantify the sensitivity of marine biogeochemistry and air-sea CO(2) exchange to variations in dust deposition over decadal timescales. Estimates of dust deposition generated under four climate states provide a large range in total deposition with spatially realistic patterns; transient ocean model experiments are conducted by applying a step-function change in deposition from a current climate control. Relative to current conditions| higher dust deposition increases diatom and export production| nitrogen fixation and oceanic net CO(2) uptake from the atmosphere| while reduced dust deposition has the opposite effects. Over timescales less than a decade| dust modulation of marine productivity and export is dominated by direct effects in high-nutrient| low-chlorophyll regions| where iron is the primary limiting nutrient. On longer timescales| an indirect nitrogen fixation pathway has increased importance| significantly amplifying the ocean biogeochemical response. Because dust iron input decouples carbon cycling from subsurface macronutrient supply| the ratio of the change in net ocean CO(2) uptake to change in export flux is large| 0.45-0.6. Decreasing dust deposition and reduced oceanic CO(2) uptake over the next century could provide a positive feedback to global warming| distinct from feedbacks associated with changes in stratification and circulation. 7700,2006,2,4,Nitrogen supply differentially affects litter decomposition rates and nitrogen dynamics of sub-arctic bog species,High-latitude peatlands are important soil carbon sinks. In these ecosystems| the mineralization of carbon and nitrogen are constrained by low temperatures and low nutrient concentrations in plant litter and soil organic matter. Global warming is predicted to increase soil N availability for plants at high-latitude sites. We applied N fertilizer as an experimental analogue for this increase. In a three-year field experiment we studied N fertilization effects on leaf litter decomposition and N dynamics of the four dominant plant species (comprising > 75% of total aboveground biomass) in a sub-arctic bog in northern Sweden. The species were Empetrum nigrum (evergreen shrub)| Eriophorum vaginatum (graminoid)| Betula nana (deciduous shrub) and Rubus chamaemorus (perennial forb). In the controls| litter mass loss rates increased in the order: Empetrum < Eriophorum < Betula < Rubus. Increased N availability had variable| species-specific effects: litter mass loss rates (expressed per unit litter mass) increased in Empetrum| did not change in Eriophorum and Betula and decreased in Rubus. In the leaf litter from the controls| we measured no or only slight net N mineralization even after three years. In the N-fertilized treatments we found strong net N immobilization| especially in Eriophorum and Betula. This suggests that| probably owing to substantial chemical and/or microbial immobilization| additional N supply does not increase the rate of N cycling for at least the first three years. 1696,2006,3,4,North American prairie wetlands are important nonforested land-based carbon storage sites,We evaluated the potential of prairie wetlands in North America as carbon sinks. Agricultural conversion has resulted in the average loss of 10.1 Mg ha(-1) of soil organic carbon on over 16 million ha of wetlands in this region. Wetland restoration has potential to sequester 378 Tg of organic carbon over a 10-year period. Wetlands can sequester over twice the organic carbon as no-till cropland on only about 17% of the total land area in the region. We estimate that wetland restoration has potential to offset 2.4% of the annual fossil CO2 emission reported for North America in 1990. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7523,2006,2,2,Numerical simulation of the sensitivity of the Pacific subtropical-tropical meridional cell to global warming,Sensitivity of the Pacific subtropical-tropical meridional cell to global warming is examined by using a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model developed at LASG/IAP. Results indicate that associated with the increasing of atmospheric carbon dioxide| the most prominent signals of global warming locate at high latitudes| and the change of middle and low latitudes| in particular the surface wind| is relatively weak| which leads to a weak response of the Pacific subtropical-tropical meridional cell. At the time of atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling| the change of the meridional cell strength is smaller than the amplitude of natural variability. 7368,2006,2,3,Numerical study of the impact of climate change on the yield of wheat| soybean and maize,The objective of this work was to evaluate through a numerical study the impact of a possible climate change on the yield of wheat| soybean and maize| in Santa Maria| RS. Climate change scenarios were created by doubling CO2| with different increases in air temperature| and with increases and without increases in rainfall. Yield of the three crops was simulated with models available in the literature. It was concluded that projected climate change will affect wheat| soybean and maize yield in Santa Maria| RS| Brazil. The increase of 2| 3 and 6 degrees C may cancel the benefits of increasing CO2 on yield of wheat| soybean and maize| respectively. 7347,2006,4,4,Numerical treatment of a class of optimal control problems arising in economics,The approximate solution of the problem of controlling an initial value problem for a linear system of autonomous ordinary differential equations is considered. The corresponding homogeneous solution to the differential equation is assumed to be non-expansive and the inhomogeneity is a linear function of the control variable that is constant along a priori given sub-intervals. The optimal control minimises a convex functional that depends| possibly in a non-linear way| on the solution of the differential equation. Infinite time horizons are allowed. In view of the piecewise constant control| the corresponding Lagrangian can be split into the sum of Lagrangians acting on sub-intervals. The two algorithms suggested are based on an iterative process that takes advantage of this splitting as well as of the explicit solution to the differential constraints. Convergence results are provided under suitable assumptions on the problems data. Finally| numerical tests for a model of global warming demonstrate the performance of the algorithms. 7661,2006,2,4,Nutrient dynamics of reindeer forage species along snowmelt gradients at different ecological scales,Growing season nutrient dynamics of four reindeer forage species (Betula nana| Eriophorum angustifolium| Rumex acetosa and Vaccinium myrtillus) were studied in a mountainous sub-arctic landscape in N Sweden. Changes in nitrogen (N)| phosphorus (P) and fibre (ADF) concentrations in [eaves and shoots were analysed (from a reindeer foraging perspective) along four ecological gradients significant to regional and local snowmelt regimes: season| oceanicity| attitude| and snow-patch retreat. N and P concentrations showed marked seasonal variations with peaks occurring from the middle of June to the end of July depending on species and snowmelt progression. The seasonal pattern for ADF concentrations| as well as differences between snowmelt regimes| were less consistent and showed large differences between species. N concentrations increased along snowmelt gradients at small (within snow-patches) and medium (along attitude gradients) spatial scales. Furthermore| variations in N concentrations were temporally and spatially scale-dependent| which underlines the importance of scale for understanding plant nutrient dynamics in sub-arctic and alpine systems| as well for plant-animal interactions. The greatest temporal and spatial differences in nutrient quality were observed early in the season| i.e.| at the time of highest nutrient requirements for reindeer. Climate-induced changes of the start and the progress of the growing season may result in significant consequences to the development of calves and subsequently to the population demography of reindeer| mediated through spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of high quality food. These results provide basic knowledge for reindeer management in the tight of the ongoing global warming. (C) 2005 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 7447,2006,4,1,Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming,This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3)| Parallel Climate Model (PCM)| and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors| for example| by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns| results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres| between land and ocean| and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result| consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models| and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO(2) is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles). 7636,2006,4,4,Observed and modeled Greenland ice sheet snow accumulation| 1958-2003| and links with regional climate forcing,Annual and monthly snow accumulation for the Greenland Ice Sheet was derived from ECMWF forecasts [mainly 40-yr ECMWR Re-Analysis (ERA-40)] and further meteorological modeling. Modeled accumulation was validated using 58 ice core accumulation datasets across the ice sheet and was found to be 95% of the observed accumulation on average| with a mean correlation of 0.53 between modeled and observed. Many of the ice core datasets are new and are presented here for the first time. Central and northern interior parts of the ice sheet were found to be similar to 10%-30% too dry in ERA-40| in line with earlier ECMWF analysis| although too much (> 50% locally) snow accumulation was modeled for interior southern parts of Greenland. Nevertheless| 47 of 58 sites show significant correlation in temporal variability of modeled with observed accumulation. The model also captures the absolute amount of snow accumulation at several sites| most notably Das1 and Das2 in southeast Greenland. Mean modeled accumulation over the ice sheet was 0.279 (standard deviation 0.034) m yr(-1) for 1958-2003 with no significant trend for either the ice sheet or any of the core sites. Unusually high accumulation in southeast Greenland in 2002/03 leads the authors to study meteorological synoptic forcing patterns and comment on the prospect of enhanced climate variability leading to more such events as a result of global warming. There is good agreement between precipitation measured at coastal meteorological stations in southern Greenland and accumulation modeled for adjacent regions of the ice sheet. There is no significant persistent relation between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and whole or southern Greenland accumulation. 1619,2006,3,3,Oceanic implications for climate change policy,Under the United Nations convention on the law of the sea (1982)| each participating country maintains exclusive economic and environmental rights within the oceanic region extending 200 nm from its territorial sea| known as the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Although the ocean within each EEZ is undoubtedly an anthropogenic CO2 sink| it has been overlooked within international climate policy. In this paper I use an area-weighted scaling argument to show that the inclusion of the EEZ CO2 sink within national carbon accounts would have significant implications in tracking national greenhouse commitments to any future climate change policy initiative. The advantages and disadvantages for inclusion of the EEZ CO2 sink into global climate change policy are also explored. The most compelling argument for including the EEZ CO2 sink is that it would enhance the equity and resources among coastal nations to combat and adapt against future climate change that will inherently impact coastal nations more so than land locked nations. If included| the funds raised could be used for either monitoring or adaptive coastal infrastructure among the most vulnerable nations. On the other hand| the EEZ anthropogenic CO2 sink cannot be directly controlled by human activities and could be used as a disincentive for some developed nations to reduce fossil-fuel related greenhouse gas emissions. This may therefore dampen efforts to ultimately reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. In consideration of these arguments it is therefore suggested that an "EEZ clause" be added to Kyoto and any future international climate policy that explicitly excludes its use within national carbon accounts under these international climate frameworks. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1751,2006,2,4,Oceans and human health: Emerging public health risks in the marine environment,There has been an increasing recognition of the inter-relationship between human health and the oceans. Traditionally| the focus of research and concern has been on the impact of human activities on the oceans| particularly through anthropogenic pollution and the exploitation of marine resources. More recently| there has been recognition of the potential direct impact of the oceans on human health| both detrimental and beneficial. Areas identified include: global change| harmful algal blooms (HABs)| microbial and chemical contamination of marine waters and seafood| and marine models and natural products from the seas. It is hoped that through the recognition of the inter-dependence of the health of both humans and the oceans| efforts will be made to restore and preserve the oceans. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7420,2006,2,7,On global forces of nature driving the Earth's climate. Are humans involved?,The authors identify and describe the following global forces of nature driving the Earth's climate: (1) solar radiation as a dominant external energy supplier to the Earth| (2) outgassing as a major supplier of gases to the World Ocean and the atmosphere| and| possibly| (3) microbial activities generating and consuming atmospheric gases at the interface of lithosphere and atmosphere. The writers provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent of their corresponding effects on the Earth's climate. Quantitative comparison of the scope and extent of the forces of nature and anthropogenic influences on the Earth's climate is especially important at the time of broad-scale public debates on current global warming. The writers show that the human-induced climatic changes are negligible.
7383,2006,2,4,On global warming: Flow-based soft global constraints,In case a CSP is over-constrained| it is natural to allow some constraints| called soft constraints| to be violated. We propose a generic method to soften global constraints that can be represented by a flow in a graph. Such constraints are softened by adding violation arcs to the graph and then computing a minimum-weight flow in the extended graph to measure the violation. We present efficient propagation algorithms| based on different violation measures| achieving domain consistency for the alldifferent constraint| the global cardinality constraint| the regular constraint and the same constraint. 7304,2006,2,2,On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle,Under global warming| the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures| changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate| potentially allowing rapid changes| as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail| however| especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues| we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure| a control run of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant| and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1|000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40 degrees N and 40 degrees S| over 100 years. In the perturbation run| changes to the surface buoyancy| near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently| relative to the control run| the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6 degrees C| and the interior cools by up to 1.1 degrees C| after a few decades. This vertical rearrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing| the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing| which we demonstrate to be around 10-20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically| the mechanism appear to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback| which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore| since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean's thermal structure| it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases. 7378,2006,4,4,On the correlation of nonlinear variables containing secular trend variations: numerical experiments,Due to global warming| the general circulation| underlying surfaces characteristics| and geophysical and meteorological elements all show evident secular trends. This paper points out that when calculating the correlation of two variables containing their own obvious secular trends| the interannual correlation characteristics between the two variables may be distorted (overestimated or underestimated). Numerical experiments in this paper show that if two variables have opposite secular trends| the correlation coefficient between the two variables is reduced (the positive correlation is underestimated| or the negative correlation is overestimated); and if the two variables have the same sign of secular trends| the correlation coefficient between the two variables is increased (the positive correlation is overestimated| or the negative correlation is underestimated). Numerical experiments also suggest that the effect of secular trends on the interannual correlation of the two variables is interchangeable| that is to say| as long as the values of the two trends are not changed| the two variables interchange their positions| and the effect of the secular trends on the interannual correlation coefficient of the two variables remains the same. If the two variables have the same-(opposite-) sign trends| the effect of secular trends on the interannual correlation coefficient is more (less) distinctive. A meteorological example is given. 7588,2006,4,5,On the essential differences between the large-scale variations of the surface temperature over the oceans and continents,The characteristic features of the surface temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere are studied on the secular time scale. The trends of the temperature anomalies over the continents and oceans were found to be opposite. The present global warming is concluded to be caused by the large-scale redistribution of heat in climatic system| indicating a compensative character of the variations observed. The dynamics of the longitudinal and latitudinal gradients of the surface temperature anomalies were analyzed. It was found that the dynamics of these gradients and the changes in the climate phases on the scales of the Northern Hemisphere are correlated. The present state of the climatic system is discussed| and it is concluded that a change in the climatic scenario in the nearest future is possible. 7594,2006,2,3,On the tropical origin of uncertainties in the global land precipitation response to global warming,Understanding the response of the global hydrological cycle to recent and future anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols is a major challenge for the climate modelling community. Recent climate scenarios produced for the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are analysed here to explore the geographical origin of| and the possible reasons for| uncertainties in the hydrological model response to global warming. Using the twentieth century simulations and the SRES-A2 scenarios from eight different coupled ocean-atmosphere models| it is shown that the main uncertainties originate from the tropics| where even the sign of the zonal mean precipitation change remains uncertain over land. Given the large interannual fluctuations of tropical precipitation| it is then suggested that the El Nino Southern Ocillation (ENSO) variability can be used as a surrogate of climate change to better constrain the model reponse. While the simulated sensitivity of global land precipitation to global mean surface temperature indeed shows a remarkable similarity between the interannual and climate change timescales respectively| the model ability to capture the ENSO-precipitation relationship is not a major constraint on the global hydrological projections. Only the model that exhibits the highest precipitation sensitivity clearly appears as an outlier. Besides deficiencies in the simulation of the ENSO-tropical rainfall teleconnections| the study indicates that uncertainties in the twenty-first century evolution of these teleconnections represent an important contribution to the model spread| thus emphasizing the need for improving the simulation of the tropical Pacific variability to provide more reliable scenarios of the global hydrological cycle. It also suggests that validating the mean present-day climate is not sufficient to assess the reliability of climate projections| and that interannual variability is another suitable and possibly more useful candidate for constraining the model response. Finally| it is shown that uncertainties in precipitation change are| like precipitation itself| very unevenly distributed over the globe| the most vulnerable countries sometimes being those where the anticipated precipitation changes are the most uncertain. 7641,2006,2,4,Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere,Recent warming of Northern Hemisphere (NH) land is well documented and typically greater in winter/spring than other seasons. Physical environment responses to warming have been reported| but not details of large-area temperate growing season impacts| or consequences for ecosystems and agriculture. To date| hemispheric-scale measurements of biospheric changes have been confined to remote sensing. However| these studies did not provide detailed data needed for many investigations. Here| we show that a suite of modeled and derived measures (produced from daily maximum-minimum temperatures) linking plant development (phenology) with its basic climatic drivers provide a reliable and spatially extensive method for monitoring general impacts of global warming on the start of the growing season. Results are consistent with prior smaller area studies| confirming a nearly universal quicker onset of early spring warmth (spring indices (SI) first leaf date| -1.2 days decade(-1))| late spring warmth (SI first bloom date| -1.0 days decade(-1); last spring day below 5 degrees C| -1.4 days decade(-1))| and last spring freeze date (-1.5 days decade(-1)) across most temperate NH land regions over the 1955-2002 period. However| dynamics differ among major continental areas with North American first leaf and last freeze date changes displaying a complex spatial relationship. Europe presents a spatial pattern of change| with western continental areas showing last freeze dates getting earlier faster| some central areas having last freeze and first leaf dates progressing at about the same pace| while in portions of Northern and Eastern Europe first leaf dates are getting earlier faster than last freeze dates. Across East Asia last freeze dates are getting earlier faster than first leaf dates. 1612,2006,3,3,Optimal endogenous carbon taxes for electric power supply chains with power plants,In this paper| we develop a modeling and computational framework that allows for the determination of optimal carbon taxes applied to electric power plants in the context of electric power supply chain (generation/distribution/consumption) networks. The adoption of carbon/pollution taxes both internationally and regionally has been fueled by global climate change and fuel security risks| with a significant portion of such policy interventions directed at the electric power industry. The general framework that we develop allows for three distinct types of carbon taxation environmental policies| beginning with a completely decentralized scheme in which taxes can be applied to each individual power generator/power plant in order to guarantee that each assigned emission bound is not exceeded| to two versions of a centralized scheme| one which assumes a fixed bound over the entire electric power supply chain in terms of total carbon emissions and the other which allows the bound to be a function of the tax. The behavior of the various decision-makers in the electric power supply chain network is described| along with the three taxation schemes| and the governing equilibrium conditions| which are formulated as finite-dimensional variational inequality problems. Twelve numerical examples are presented in which the optimal carbon taxes| as well as the equilibrium electric power flows and demands| are computed. The numerical results demonstrate| as the theory predicts| that the carbon taxes achieve the desired goal| in that the imposed bounds on the carbon emissions are not exceeded. Moreover| they illustrate the spectrum of scenarios that can be explored in terms of changes in the bounds on the carbon emissions; changes in emission factors; changes in the demand price functions| etc. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7335,2006,3,4,Optimal household refrigerator replacement policy for life cycle energy| greenhouse gas emissions| and cost,Although the last decade witnessed dramatic progress in refrigerator efficiencies| inefficient| outdated refrigerators are still in operation| sometimes consuming more than twice as much electricity per year compared with modern| efficient models. Replacing old refrigerators before their designed lifetime could be a useful policy to conserve electric energy and greenhouse gas emissions. However| from a life cycle perspective| product replacement decisions also induce additional economic and environmental burdens associated with disposal of old models and production of new models. This paper discusses optimal lifetimes of mid-sized refrigerator models in the US| using a life cycle optimization model based on dynamic programming. Model runs were conducted to find optimal lifetimes that minimize energy| global warming potential (GWP)| and cost objectives over a time horizon between 1985 and 2020. The baseline results show that depending on model years| optimal lifetimes range 2-7 years for the energy objective| and 2-11 years for the GWP objective. On the other hand| an 18-year of lifetime minimizes the economic cost incurred during the time horizon. Model runs with a time horizon between 2004 and 2020 show that current owners should replace refrigerators that consume more than 1000 kWh/year of electricity (typical mid-sized 1994 models and older) as an efficient strategy from both cost and energy perspectives. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7677,2006,3,4,Optimization of ironmaking process for reducing CO2 emissions in the integrated steel works,Global warming is a common subject in steel industry in every country. International cooperation will be required using the Kyoto Mechanism from global aspect. In the integrated steel works| there are various means to decrease reducing agent at blast furnace| however| preferable way to reduce CO2 emissions must be chosen considering energy balance in whole steel works| and energy saving must be actively pursued. Injection of waste plastics and carbon neutral materials such as biomass is better alternative. In the near future|hydrogen will attract attention as a clean energy source even in the steel works. Regarding oxygen blast furnace and smelting reduction| the possibility of CO2 reduction is dependent on optimum system design of total process including outside process. Charge of prereduced sinter and high reactivity coke to blast furnace leads to reduction of CO2 keeping current blast furnace facility and capability. 7568,2006,3,3,Optimization of parabolic trough solar collector system,Process heat produced by solar collectors can contribute significantly in the conservation of conventional energy resources| reducing CO2 emission| and delaying global warming. One of the major problems associated with solar process heat application is fluctuation in system temperature during unsteady state radiation conditions which may cause significant thermal and operation problems. In this paper a transient simulation model is developed for analysing the performance of industrial water heating systems using parabolic trough solar collectors. The results showed that to prevent dramatic change and instability in process heat during transient radiation periods thermal storage tank size should not be lower than 14.51 m(-2) of collector area. Small periods of radiation instability lower than 30 min do not have significant effect on system operation. During these periods when water flow rate of collector loop is doubled the time required to restore system normal operating condition increased by a ratio of 1.5. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 7547,2006,3,2,Optimization of pipeline transport for CO2 sequestration,Coal fired power generation will continue to provide energy to the world for the foreseeable future. However| this energy use is a significant contributor to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and| hence| global warming. Capture and disposal Of CO2 has received increased R&D attention in the last decade as the technology promises to be the most cost effective for large scale reductions in CO2 emissions. This paper addresses CO2 transport via pipeline from capture site to disposal site| in terms of system optimization| energy efficiency and overall economics. Technically| CO2 can be transported through pipelines in the form of a gas| a supercritical. fluid or in the subcooled liquid state. Operationally| most CO2 pipelines used for enhanced oil recovery transport CO2 as a supercritical fluid. In this paper| supercritical fluid and subcooled liquid transport are examined and compared| including their impacts on energy efficiency and cost. Using a commercially available process simulator| ASPEN PLUS 10.1| the results show that subcooled liquid transport maximizes the energy efficiency and minimizes the Cost Of CO2 transport over long distances under both isothermal and adiabatic conditions. Pipeline transport of subcooled liquid CO2 can be ideally used in areas of cold climate or by burying and insulating the pipeline. In very warm climates| periodic refrigeration to cool the CO2 below its critical point of 31.1 degrees C| may prove economical. Simulations have been used to determine the maximum safe pipeline distances to subsequent booster stations as a function of inlet pressure| environmental temperature and ground level heat flux conditions. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 1759,2006,3,2,Options and instruments for a deep cut in CO2 emissions: Carbon dioxide capture or renewables| taxes or subsidies?,This paper compares both the main physical options and the principal policy instruments to realize a deep cut in carbon dioxide emissions necessary to control global climate change. A top-down energy-economy model is used that has three emission reduction options: energy savings| a transition towards less-carbon-intensive or non-carbon energy resources| and the use of carbon dioxide capture and storage technology. Five policy instruments - carbon taxes| fossil fuel taxes| non-carbon (renewable) energy subsidies| a portfolio standard for the carbon intensity of energy production| and a portfolio standard for the use of non-carbon (renewable) energy resources - are compared in terms of costs| efficiency and their impact on the composition of the energy supply system. One of our main conclusions is that a carbon intensity portfolio standard| involving the recycling of carbon taxes to support renewables deployment| is the most cost-efficient way to address the problem of global climate change. A comprehensive introduction of the capture and storage of carbon dioxide would contribute to reducing the costs of climate change control| but would not obviate the large-scale need for renewables. 7539,2006,2,4,Orchid-fungus fidelity: a marriage meant to last?,The characteristics of plant-rnycorrhizae associations are known to vary in both time and space| but the ecological consequences of variation in the dynamics of plant-fungus interactions are poorly understood. For example| do plants associate with single fungi or multiple fungi simultaneously| and do the associations persist through a plant's lifetime or do plants support a succession of different fungi? We investigated these and other questions related to plant-fungus interactions in Goodyera pubescens| an evergreen terrestrial orchid of the eastern United States| that interdicts with closely related fungi in the genus Tulasnella. Unlike the mycorrhizal associations of other plants| orchid-mycorrhizal associations only benefit the orchid| based on current evidence. Many terrestrial orchids have been found to associate with specific groups of fungi. This characteristic could potentially limit orchids to relatively narrow ranges of environmental conditions and may be a contributing factor in the decline of many orchids in the face of changing environmental conditions. We found that G. pubescens protocorms (developing embryos prior to leaf production) and adults associated with only one fungal individual at a time. The orchid-fungus association persists for years| but during I drought period that was associated with the death of many plants| surviving plants were able to switch to new fungal individuals. These results. suggest that G. pubescens interacts with the same fungal partner during periods of modest environmental variation but is able to switch to a different fungal partner. We hypothesize that the ability to switch fungi allows G. pubescens to survive more extreme environmental perturbations. However| laboratory experiments suggest that switching fungi has potential costs| as it increases the risk of mortality| especially for smaller individuals. Our findings indicate that it is unlikely that switching fungi is a common way to improve tolerance of less severe environmental fluctuations and disturbances. These findings may have important implications for plant responses to severe climatic events or to more gradual environmental changes such its global warming. 1729,2006,5,3,Paleomonsoon precipitation deduced from a sediment core from the equatorial Indian Ocean,Rapid shifts in past climate recorded in polar ice sheets have elicited various explanations relating to either thermohaline circulation changes by ice-rafting or natural greenhouse gas concentrations modulated by climatic conditions in the tropics. To compare the tropical paleoclimate record with the polar record| one must choose sediment cores from highly productive ocean regions. Necessarily| such regions reflect the wind records in the tropics| because high productivity is associated with upwelling driven by winds. Comparing tropical precipitation records with high-latitude records is| however| a more difficult task because sediments recording paleoprecipitation usually have low sedimentation rates| and offer coarser resolution relative to polar ice cores. Here| we present delta O-18 data of three planktonic species of Foraminifera (a proxy for precipitation) from such a sediment core| spanning the past 35 ka for the equatorial Indian Ocean| which falls under the southwest monsoon (SWM) realm. Results show that minimum SWM precipitation occurred at the Last Glacial Maximum| with a subsequent increase at Termination IA. During the Holocene| SWM precipitation intensified uniformly up to the core top (similar to 2.2 ka B.P.)| as revealed by generally decreasing delta O-18 values. Variations in precipitation are consistent with climate changes recorded in polar ice sheets. Although the different resolutions of the two records preclude a rigorous comparison| abrupt cooling/warming events appear to be accompanied by sudden reduction/enhancement in (SWM) rainfall. Thus| mechanisms with time scales much shorter than a millennium| such as natural greenhouse warming (e.g.| CH4 concentration)| controlled by emissions from the tropics| could have played a major role in high-latitude climate change. 1655,2006,4,4,Participation of Latin America and the Caribbean in the global climatological records| GHCN,It is impossible to overestimate the importance of historical meteorological records for studies of global climate change. Many of these studies are based on data in GHCN| the Global Historical Climatology Network| a meteorological data compilation available over the Internet that is comprised of voluntary contributions from all over the world. Even though the participation of countries is worthy of note| it should also be recognized that their contributions vary in quality and quantity| and especially in being tip to date. Data of many Latin American countries are incomplete and not up to date| which can cause errors in studies based on these data. Tables and figures show the participation of countries. In the name of researchers of climate change| the authors urge the authorities of all countries to change their policies so that their contributions' to GHCN will be more complete and up to date. 1695,2006,4,4,Past hydrological events related to understanding global change: An ICSU research project,Despite general agreement that global climate change is taking place there is less consensus about the consequences and impacts that may arise. The possibility of greater climatic variability| with changes in the incidence of particular types of events| requires multidisciplinary research so that associated impacts can be considered when devising environmental management strategies. Past hydrological events investigated using palaeoenvironmental techniques| over time periods longer than the period of continuous records| are a possible source of information to complement monitored records. Six international research groups (GLOCOPH Commission of INQUA| Water Sustainability Commission of IGU| LUCIFS in IGBP-PAGES| Geomorphic Challenges for the 21st Century Commission of IGU| International Commission on Continental Erosion of IAHS| and Fluvial Archives Group [FLAG] associated with INQUA and IGU) have each contributed results from their specific time and spatial scales in integrated research collaboration. Relevant research conclusions have been combined and a research project under-taken which is the subject of four later papers. A provisional protocol for use of past hydrological events in order to understand global change is proposed and adapted in the final paper| to take account of other papers included and contributions to the discussions. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7633,2006,2,4,Patterns of species description and species richness of geometrid moths (Lepidoptera : Geometridae) on the Korean peninsula,The diversity and pattern of species description among geometrid moths in Korea from 1883 to 2004 were assessed. A total of 647 geometrid species have been described: Ennominae (275 species| 43%)| Larentiinae (227 spp.| 35%)| Geometrinae (68 spp.| 11%)| Sterrhinae (67 spp.| 11%)| Oenochrominae (9 spp.| 2%)| and Archiearinae (1 sp.| < 11%). Fourteen authors described more than 80% of geometrid species. The cumulative curve of the number of geometrid species described showed three high-rate peaks of description| around the 1900s| 1950s| and 2000s. The cumulative curves of five subfamilies (Ennominae| Larentiinae| Geometrinae| Sterrhinae| and Oenochrominae) fluctuated equally| and none has clearly reached an asymptote. The localities where a species was first recorded in Korea are mostly in the northern and central parts of the peninsula. The utility of larentiines| which are predominant in mountainous habitats and high latitudes| as a bioindicator for global warming is briefly discussed. 7476,2006,2,4,Permafrost and changing climate: The Russian perspective,The permafrost regions occupy about 25% of the Northern Hemisphere's terrestrial surface| and more than 60% of that of Russia. Warming| thawing| and degradation of permafrost have been observed in many locations in recent decades and are likely to accelerate in the future as a result of climatic change. Changes of permafrost have important implications for natural systems| humans| and the economy of the northern lands. Results from mathematical modeling indicate that by the mid-21st century| near-surface permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere may shrink by 15%-30%| leading to complete thawing of the frozen ground in the upper few meters| while elsewhere the depth of seasonal thawing may increase on average by 15%-25%| and by 50% or more in the northernmost locations. Such changes may shift the balance between the uptake and release of carbon in tundra and facilitate emission of greenhouse gases from the carbon-rich Arctic wetlands. Serious public concerns are associated with the effects that thawing permafrost may have on the infrastructure constructed on it. Climate-induced changes of permafrost properties are potentially detrimental to almost all structures in northern lands| and may render many of them unusable. Degradation of permafrost and ground settlement due to thermokarst may lead to dramatic distortions of terrain and to changes in hydrology and vegetation| and may lead ultimately to transformation of existing landforms. Recent studies indicate that nonclimatic factors| such as changes in vegetation and hydrology| may largely govern the response of permafrost to global warming. More studies are needed to better understand and quantify the effects of multiple factors in the changing northern environment. 7690,2006,4,4,Persistent volcanic signature observed around Barren Island| Andaman Sea| India,This study delineates the formation of a warm pool (>34 degrees C) of air to the west (downwind) of the active volcano of the Barren Island during October-November 2005. Barren Island is located in the Sumatra-Andaman region| about 135 km east of Port Blair| and lies within the Burma microplate| the southern tip of which experienced a submarine earthquake (M(w) 9.3) causing a tsunami in December 2004. Barren Island is the only volcano| which has shown sustained eruptive activity since shortly after the Great Sumatran Earthquake of December 2004. Our observations require further corroboration to relate how submarine earthquakes activate volcanoes and how far these thermal emissions influence climate changes. Because it links global warming and climate changes to the frequent emissions from a volcano activated by submarine earthquakes| this case study is of special interest to the earth-ocean-atmosphere sciences community. 7627,2006,2,4,Phenological responses of snowbed species to snow removal dates in the Central Alps: Implications for climate warming,Low temperatures and the short growing season in high altitude snow patches in temperate mountains constrain life cycles and reproduction of snowbed species. This leads to it highly adapted timing of sexual reproduction. Winter precipitation and temperature| the main factors determining growing season length| are predicted to change with global Warming. To understand their impacts on plant phenology| we studied the responses of seven alpine vascular plant species during 2001. Temperature had a clear impact on phenological patterns. The start of the reproductive development was not directly linked with the date of snowmelt| but rather with the cumulative energy input. In addition| photoperiodism may also contribute to the control of plant development through an increasing temporal adjustment of phenology until flowering. 7575,2006,4,1,Phenomenological solar contribution to the 1900-2000 global surface warming,[1] We study the role of solar forcing on global surface temperature during four periods of the industrial era (1900-2000| 1900-1950| 1950-2000 and 1980-2000) by using a sun-climate coupling model based on four scale-dependent empirical climate sensitive parameters to solar variations. We use two alternative total solar irradiance satellite composites| ACRIM and PMOD| and a total solar irradiance proxy reconstruction. We estimate that the sun contributed as much as 45-50% of the 1900-2000 global warming| and 25-35% of the 1980-2000 global warming. These results| while confirming that anthropogenic-added climate forcing might have progressively played a dominant role in climate change during the last century| also suggest that the solar impact on climate change during the same period is significantly stronger than what some theoretical models have predicted. 7355,2006,4,5,Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record,We study the solar impact on 400 years of a global surface temperature record since 1600. This period includes the pre-industrial era ( roughly 1600 - 1800 or 1600 - 1900)| when negligible amount of anthropogenic-added climate forcing was present and the sun realistically was the only climate force affecting climate on a secular scale| and the industrial era ( roughly since 1800 - 1900)| when anthropogenic-added climate forcing has been present in some degree. We use a recent secular Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction (Moberg et al.| 2005)| three alternative total solar irradiance (TSI) proxy reconstructions ( Lean et al.| 1995; Lean| 2000; Wang et al.| 2005) and a scale-by-scale transfer climate sensitivity model to solar changes (Scafetta and West| 2005| 2006). The phenomenological approach we propose is an alternative to the more traditional computer-based climate model approach| and yields results proven to be almost independent on the secular TSI proxy reconstruction used. We find good correspondence between global temperature and solar induced temperature curves during the pre-industrial period such as the cooling periods occurring during the Maunder Minimum ( 1645 - 1715) and the Dalton Minimum ( 1795 1825). The sun might have contributed approximately 50% of the observed global warming since 1900 ( Scafetta and West| 2006). We briefly discuss the global cooling that occurred from the medieval maximum ( approximate to 1000 - 1100 AD) to the 17th century minimum. 1732,2006,2,4,Phenotypic diversity amongst strains of Pleurotus sajor-caju: implications for cultivation in arid environments,In and regions| biodiversity and biomass are limited by water availability| and this problem has been compounded by desertification associated with global climate change. The saprotrophic macrofungi that are indigenous to hot subtropical and tropical regions| such as Pleurotus spp.| can play key roles in water sequestration| nutrient cycling| human nutrition| and bioremediation of waste materials. We studied 15 strains of Pleurotus sajor-caju| a widespread and phenotypically-diverse species| to establish variability in growth response and primordium development over a range of stress parameters: osmotic potential (-0.5 to -5 MPa)| temperature (5-40 degrees C) and pH (2-12). The initiation of primordia precedes basidiome production and therefore represents a key stage in bioremediation strategies and fungi-driven nutrient cycles. Primordia. were produced at low pH (4-6)| at suboptimal growth temperatures (<= 25 degrees C)| and under moderate water stress (-0.5 to -3.5 MPa). Although the growth windows for different strains were similar| their maximum growth rates and the optimum conditions for growth varied. We discuss the phenotypic diversity of Pleurotus strains and discuss their potential for cultivation| bioremediation and ecological regeneration. (c) 2005 The British Mycological Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1741,2006,5,4,Phosphorus geochemistry in the Luochuan loess section| North China and its paleoclimatic implications,Total P (P-t) on a carbonate-free basis in an entire loess-paleosol sequence and P-t| organic P (P-o) and inorganic P (P-i) in the S-0-L-1-S-1 sequence were investigated in detail with different resolutions for the Luochuan loess section from northern China. P-t content varies between 393 and 786 ppm throughout the loess-paleosol sequence| and is generally higher in the loess than in interstratified paleosols| showing fluctuation cycles of 100ka in correspondence to loess-paleosol alternations. P-t variations on a carbonate-free basis in the loess-paleosol sequence could indicate variations in atmosphere precipitation resulting in different leaching loss of P from palcosols. P-i has an average value of 499 ppm with a range of 324-560 ppm| accounting for more than 70% of P-t in the S-0-L-1-S-1 sequence| where the minimum of P-i in the Malan loess is higher than the maximum of P-i in S-1. P-o ranges between 59 and 233 ppm with an average of 132 ppm in the S-0-L-1-S-1 sequence. Phosphorus (P) was initially delivered to the Luochuan loess section via influx of aeolian dust from the northern desert and Gobi areas by the East Asian winter monsoon| and then was modified by pedogenesis associated with the East Asian summer monsoon during the last 130 ka. '' Preserved P-t'' in the loess L-1 is tightly correlated with grain size without leaching loss of P due to enrichment of P in fine-grained fractions| as well as '' initial P-t''. '' Leaching P-t'' data show that paleosol S-1 had lost 15-40% of its '' initial P-t''| and that there was much more precipitation in S-1 than in L-1. P-i subject to slightly weak pedogenesis was completely transformed into P-o without leaching loss of P in loess L-1. By contrast| much P-i disappeared from paleosol S| due to strong pedogenesis| partly through leaching and partly through conversion to organic forms during P cycling processes. P-o variation is similar to those of MS and the < 7.8 mu m fraction in L-1| but contains more information on the East Asian winter monsoon due to weak pedogenesis without leaching of P. P-o in S-1 lower than L1SS1| as a consequence of strong decomposition of the organic matter kept constantly in the middle of S-1 where P-i kept at the lowest of 423 ppm| suggesting that there existed a very warm and humid climate related to the enhanced summer monsoon during that period. The mean organic P/inorganic P ratio (P-o/P-i) is lower in the L1LL1 and L1LL2 than in the S-0| S-1| and L1SS1| indicating that low P-o/P-i ratios coincide with weak weathering-pedogenesis| and higher P-o/P-i ratios correspond to strong weathering-pedogenesis. P-o/P-i ratio can eliminate the effect of grain size on aeolian dust because of chemical uniformity of aeolian dust and enrichment of P-o and P-i in the fine-grained fractions. Thus| P-o/P-i ratio is solely linked to pedogenesis of the Luochuan loess section. Variation in P-o/P-i ratiois similar to those of MS and the Marine Oxygen Isotope composition| indicating the summer monsoon evolution during the last 130 ka and providing the biogeochemical evidence for further understanding the genetic links between the East Asian monsoon and global climate change. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 7285,2006,2,4,Photographs and herbarium specimens as tools to document phenological changes in response to global warming,Global warming is affecting natural systems across the world. Of the biological responses to warming| changes in the timing of phenological events such as flowering are among the most sensitive. Despite the recognized importance of phenological changes| the limited number of long-term records of phenological events has restricted research on the topic in most areas of the world. In a previous study in Boston (American Journal of Botany 91: 1260-1264)| we used herbarium specimens and one season of field observations to show that plants flowered earlier as the climate warmed over the past 100 yr. In our new study| we found that two extra years of data did not strengthen the explanatory power of the analysis. Analysis of herbarium specimens without any field data yielded results similar to analyses that included field observations. In addition| we found that photographs of cultivated and wild plants in Massachusetts| data similar to that contained in herbarium specimens| show changes in flowering times that closely match independent data on the same species in the same locations. Dated photographs of plants in flower represent a new resource to extend the range of species and localities addressed in global-warming research. 7570,2006,2,4,Photosynthetic responses of seven tropical seagrasses to elevated seawater temperature,This study uses chlorophyll a fluorescence to examine the effect of environmentally relevant (1-4 h) exposures of thermal stress (35-45 degrees C) on seagrass photosynthetic yield in seven tropical species of seagrasses. Acute response of each tropical seagrass species to thermal stress was characterised| and the capacity of each species to tolerate and recover from thermal stress was assessed. Two fundamental characteristics of heat stress were observed. The first effect was a decrease in photosynthetic yield (F-v/ F) characterised by reductions in F and F-m'. The dramatic decline in F/F-m' ratio| due to chronic inhibition of photosynthesis| indicates an intolerance of Halophila ovalis| Zostera capricorni and Syringodium isoetifolium to ecologically relevant exposures of thermal stress and structural alterations to the PhotoSystem II (PSII) reaction centres. The decline in F-m' represents heat-induced photoinhibition related to closure of PSII reaction centres and chloroplast dysfunction. The key finding was that Cymodocea rotundata| Cymodocea serrulata| Halodule uninervis and Thalassia hemprichii were more tolerant to thermal stress than H. ovalis| Z capricorni and S. isoetifolium. After 3 days of 4 h temperature treatments ranging from 25 to 40 degrees C| C. rotundata| C. serrulata and H. uninervis demonstrated a wide tolerance to temperature with no detrimental effect on F-v/F-m' qN or qP responses. These three species are restricted to subtropical and tropical waters and their tolerance to seawater temperatures 25 to 40 degrees C is likely to be an adaptive response to high temperatures commonly occurring at low tides and peak solar irradiance. The results of temperature experiments suggest that the photosynthetic condition of all seagrass species tested are likely to suffer irreparable effects from short-term or episodic changes in seawater temperatures as high as 40-45 degrees C. Acute stress responses of seagrasses to elevated seawater temperatures are consistent with observed reductions in above-ground biomass during a recent El Nino event. Crown Copyright (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7569,2006,2,2,Physiological constraints on organismal response to global warming: mechanistic insights from clinally varying populations and implications for assessing endangerment,Recent syntheses indicate that global warming affects diverse biological processes| but also highlight the potential for some species to adapt behaviourally or evolutionarily to rapid climate change. Far less attention has addressed the alternative| that organisms lacking this ability may face extinction| a fate projected to befall one-quarter of global biodiversity. This conclusion is controversial| in part because there exist few mechanistic studies that show how climate change could precipitate extinction. We provide a concrete| mechanistic example of warming as a stressor of organisms that are closely adapted to cool climates from a comparative analysis of organismal tolerance among clinally varying populations along a natural thermal gradient. We found that two montane salamanders exhibit significant metabolic depression at temperatures within the natural thermal range experienced by low and middle elevation populations. Moreover| the magnitude of depression was inversely related to native elevation| suggesting that low elevation populations are already living near the limit of their physiological tolerances. If this finding generally applies to other montane specialists| the prognosis for biodiversity loss in typically diverse montane systems is sobering. We propose that indices of warming-induced stress tolerance may provide a critical new tool for quantitative assessments of endangerment due to anthropogenic climate change across diverse species. 1743,2006,2,4,Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca travelling from Africa to breed in Europe: differential effects of winter and migration conditions on breeding date,In most bird species there is only a short time window available for optimal breeding due to variation in ecological conditions in a seasonal environment. Long-distance migrants must travel before they start breeding| and conditions at the wintering grounds and during migration may affect travelling speed and hence arrival and breeding dates. These effects are to a large extent determined by climate variables such as rainfall and temperature| and need to be identified to predict how well species can adapt to climate change. In this paper we analyse effects of vegetation growth on the wintering grounds and sites en route on the annual timing of breeding of 17 populations of Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca studied between 1982-2000. Timing of breeding was largely correlated with local spring temperatures| supplemented by striking effects of African vegetation and NAO. Populations differed in the effects of vegetation growth on the wintering grounds| and on their northern African staging grounds| as well as ecological conditions in Europe as measured by the winter NAO. In general| early breeding populations (low altitude| western European populations) bred earlier in years with more vegetation in the Northern Sahel zone| as well as in Northern Africa. In contrast| late breeding populations (high altitude and northem and eastern populations) advanced their breeding dates when circumstances in Europe were more advanced (high NAO). Thus| timing of breeding in most Pied Flycatcher populations not only depends upon local circumstances| but also on conditions encountered during travelling| and these effects differ across populations dependent on the timing of travelling and breeding. 7247,2006,5,4,Pliocene Arctic temperature constraints from the growth rings and isotopic composition of fossil larch,Instrumental records reveal that the current rate of Arctic warming greatly exceeds mean global warming. However| Arctic temperatures during the Pliocene were considerably warmer than present| making it an excellent time period for investigating potential consequences of current warming trends. Here we focus on an early Pliocene (4 to 5 Ma) peat deposit from Ellesmere Island| characterized by a remarkable fossil assemblage representative of a modem boreal forest. Among the fossils are well-preserved samples of an extinct larch (Larix groenlandii)| which were exploited as an archive of paleoclimatic information. We reconstruct Pliocene terrestrial temperatures in the high Arctic using a novel approach that combines measurements of ring-width and oxygen isotopes. This technique was calibrated by analyzing modem analog larch growing at the northern extent of their range and accounting for biotic fractionation of oxygen isotopes using a global database of modem trees. Based on this approach| we estimated mean annual temperature in the Arctic during the Pliocene to be -5.5 +/- 1.9 degrees C| indicating that Arctic temperatures were 14.2 degrees C warmer than today. This more precise multi-proxy estimate is slightly warmer than previous estimates derived from empirical evidence and general circulation models. Our results also demonstrate that the biotic fractionation of oxygen isotopes in cellulose is non-linear and dependent upon regional factors affecting aridity| such as latitude and elevation. Therefore the simultaneous measurement of oxygen isotopes and morphological characteristics in paleovegetation can be useful in constraining climatic variables of Earth's past. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7499,2006,5,1,Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change,There is good evidence that higher global temperatures will promote a rise of greenhouse gas levels| implying a positive feedback which will increase the effect of anthropogenic emissions on global temperatures. However| the magnitude of this effect predicted by the available models remains highly uncertain| due to the accumulation of uncertainties in the processes thought to be involved. Here we present an alternative way of estimating the magnitude of the feedback effect based on reconstructed past changes. Linking this information with the mid-range Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimation of the greenhouse gas effect on temperature we suggest that the feedback of global temperature on atmospheric CO2 will promote warming by an extra 15-78% on a century-scale. This estimate may be conservative as we did not account for synergistic effects of likely temperature moderated increase in other greenhouse gases. Our semi-empirical approach independently supports process based simulations suggesting that feedback may cause a considerable boost in warming. 1704,2006,5,4,Post-Eocene climate change| niche conservatism| and the latitudinal diversity gradient of New World birds,Aim The aim of this study was to test a variant of the evolutionary time hypothesis for the bird latitudinal diversity gradient derived from the effects of niche conservatism in the face of global climate change over evolutionary time. Location The Western Hemisphere. Methods We used digitized range maps of breeding birds to estimate the species richness at two grain sizes| 756 and 12|100 km(2). We then used molecular phylogenies resolved to family to quantify the root distance (RD) of each species as a measure of its level of evolutionary development. Birds were classified as 'basal' or 'derived' based on the RD of their family| and richness patterns were contrasted for the most basal and most derived 30% of species. We also generated temperature estimates for the Palaeogene across the Western Hemisphere to examine how spatial covariation between past and present climates might make it difficult to distinguish between ecological and evolutionary hypotheses for the current richness gradient. Results The warm| wet tropics support many species from basal bird clades| whereas the northern temperate zone and cool or dry tropics are dominated by species from more recent| evolutionarily derived clades. Furthermore| crucial to evaluating how niche conservatism among birds may drive the hemispherical richness gradient| the spatial structure of the richness gradient for basal groups is statistically indistinguishable from the overall gradient| whereas the richness gradient for derived groups is much shallower than the overall gradient. Finally| modern temperatures and the pattern of climate cooling since the Eocene are indistinguishable as predictors of bird species richness. Main conclusions Differences in the richness gradients of basal vs. derived clades suggest that the hemispherical gradient has been strongly influenced by the differential extirpation of species in older| warm-adapted clades from parts of the world that have become cooler in the present. We propose that niche conservatism and global-scale climate change over evolutionary time provide a parsimonious explanation for the contemporary bird latitudinal diversity gradient in the New World| although dispersal limitation of some highly derived clades probably plays a secondary role. 7262,2006,3,4,Potential for cost effective magnetocaloric air conditioning systems,Magnetic refrigeration is an emerging technology that exploits the magnetocaloric effect found in solid-state refrigerants. The combination of solid-state refrigerants| water-based heat transfer fluids| and high efficiency will lead to environmentally desirable products with minimal contributions to global warming. Among the numerous applications of refrigeration technology| air conditioning applications provide the largest aggregate cooling power and use the greatest quantity of electric energy. The primacy of the air conditioning application makes the establishment of cost targets for this application an essential feature of the R&D plan for magnetic refrigeration technology. A preliminary assessment of the permanent magnet costs and magnetocaloric material costs indicates that| for suitably chosen materials and operating conditions| these costs lay well below the total manufactured costs for vapor compression based air conditioners. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 7377,2006,4,4,Potential impact of climate change on the northern nemoral forest herb flora of Europe,This study examines the potential impact on 21st century climate change on north-nemoral forest herb ranges at three spatial scales (Europe as whole| Northern/Southern Europe| separately| and the small north-nemoral region Denmark) and for two contrasting geographic regions (Northern and Southern Europe)| and evaluates which species traits (climatic niche parameters| range location) would be most important for the range responses. The impact of climate change on the ranges of 36 north-nemoral forest herb species was estimated using a fuzzy bioclimatic envelope model that link atlas data to climate to predict bioclimatic suitability. Two global warming scenarios were investigated. Bioclimatic suitability was predicted to decline for all species in Europe as whole and in Southern Europe| while a minority would experience stable or increased suitability in Denmark and Northern Europe. No species were predicted to go extinct at a European scale under any scenario| although up to 14% of the species could be lost at the smallest scale. However| due to its strong impact on Southern Europe| warming would threaten the long-term survival of the nemoral flora. In particular in Northern Europe suitability increases would occur in unoccupied areas. Hence| dispersal limitation could be a particularly important constraint on species responses to climate change in this region. The best predictors of modelled large-scale sensitivity to global warming often included water balance niche descriptors and the latitudinal range centroid. 7489,2006,2,4,Potential impacts of climate change on nitrogen transformations and greenhouse gas fluxes in forests: a soil transfer study,Relatively little research has been conducted on how climate change may affect the structure and function of arid to semiarid ecosystems of the American Southwest. Along the slopes of the San Francisco Peaks of Arizona| USA| I transferred intact soil cores from a spruce-fir to a ponderosa pine forest 730 m lower in elevation to assess the potential impacts of climate change on soil N cycling and trace gas fluxes. The low-elevation site has a mean annual soil temperature about 2.5 degrees C higher than the high-elevation site. Net rates of N transformations and trace gas fluxes were measured in high-elevation soil cores incubated in situ and soil cores transferred to the low-elevation site. Over a 13-month period| volumetric soil water content was similar in transferred soil cores relative to soil cores incubated in situ. Net N mineralization and nitrification increased over 80% in transferred soil cores compared with in situ soil cores. Soil transfer significantly increased net CO2 efflux (120%) and net CH4 consumption (90%) relative to fluxes of these gases from soil cores incubated in situ. Soil net N2O fluxes were relatively low and were not generally altered by soil transfer. Although the soil microbial biomass as a whole decreased in transferred soil cores compared with in situ soil cores after the incubation period| active bacterial biomass increased. Transferring soil cores from the low-elevation to the high-elevation site (i.e. simulated global cooling) commonly| but not consistently| resulted in the opposite effects on soil pools and processes. In general| soil containment (root trenching) did not significantly affect soil measurements. My results suggest that small increases in mean annual temperature can have large impacts on soil N cycling| soil-atmosphere trace gas exchanges| and soil microbial communities even in ecosystems where water availability is a major limiting resource. 7421,2006,3,4,Potential of reducing the environmental impact of aviation by using hydrogen - Part III: Optimum cruising altitude and airport implications,The main objective of the paper is to evaluate the potential of reducing the environmental impact of civil subsonic aviation by using hydrogen fuel. The paper is divided into three parts of which this is Part III. In Part I the background| prospects and challenges of introducing an alternative fuel in aviation were outlined. The aero engine design when using hydrogen was covered in Part II. In this paper| Part III| the subjects of optimum cruising altitude and airport implications of introducing liquid hydrogen-fuelled aircraft are raised. For minimum global warming| the results of a preliminary analysis associated with large uncertainties suggest that cryoplanes should cruise at an altitude of about 2-3km below where conventional aircraft cruise today. Ignoring the cost implications| from an airport infrastructure point of view| it seems feasible to change to hydrogen use. With respect to the availability of energy| it would be reasonable to change from kerosene to liquid hydrogen as fuel for all civil aviation refuelling in Sweden.
7705,2006,4,4,Potentials and limitations of life cycle assessment in setting ecolabelling criteria: A case study of Thai shrimp aquaculture product,Goal and Scope. The goal of this study is to explore the potentials and limitations of using LCA as the basis for setting ecolabelling criteria in developing countries. The practicality of using LCA for this purpose| as required by ISO 14020| has been criticised as lacking in transparency and scientific rigour. Furthermore| ecolabelling is not widespread in developing countries. The application of LCA has therefore been illustrated by using the specific case of shrimp aquaculture in Thailand| as a basis for ecolabelling criteria for a typical product intended for export from a developing country. Method. For the LCA case study| the functional unit is the standard consumer-package size| containing 1.8 kg of frozen shrimp produced by conventional intensive aquaculture in Thailand| subject to an appropriate environmental management system. The impact assessment method used in this study is CML 2 Baseline 2000. Results. According to the results from the LCA study| farming appears to be the key life cycle stage generating the most significant environmental impacts: abiotic depletion and global warming| which arise mainly from the use of energy; and eutrophication caused by wastewater discharged from the shrimp ponds. It is possible to cover these impacts by quantitative ecolabelling criteria. Other important impacts could not be quantified by the LCA: depletion of wild shrimp broodstock| impacts of trawling on marine biodiversity and the choice of suitable farm sites. These impacts| which are also related to the farming stage| must be covered by 'hurdle criteria'. Conclusions and Recommendations. For the present case| LCA provides a basis for quantifying a number of important ecolabelling criteria related to the use of abiotic resources and to emissions. Other important issues| connected with the use of biotic natural resources and land| are not quantifiable by current LCA methodology| but were also revealed and clarified by using an LCA framework for the analysis. Thus| focussing the assessment on life cycle considerations| as required by ISO 14024| was effective in identifying all key environmental issues. In the light of this case study| main limitations and barriers associated with the application of LCA to setting ecolabelling criteria particularly in developing countries are discussed| including recommendations on how to overcome them. 1625,2006,2,4,Predicted climate change alters the indirect effect of predators on an ecosystem process,Changes in rainfall predicted to occur with global climate change will likely alter rates of leaf-litter decomposition through direct effects on primary decomposers. In a field experiment replicated at two sites| we show that altered rainfall may also change how cascading trophic interactions initiated by arthropod predators in the leaf litter indirectly influence litter decomposition. On the drier site there was no interaction between rainfall and the indirect effect of predators on decomposition. In contrast| on the moister site spiders accelerated the disappearance rate of deciduous leaf litter under low rainfall| but had no| or possibly a negative| indirect effect under high rainfall. Thus| changes resulting from the more intense hydrological cycle expected to occur with climate change will likely influence how predators indirectly affect an essential ecosystem process. 7430,2006,2,4,Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change,Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States| we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that extinction vulnerability increases with decreasing distribution size. We also found that model fit decreases with decreasing distribution size| resulting in high prediction uncertainty among narrowly distributed species. High prediction uncertainty creates a conservation dilemma in that excluding these species under-predicts extinction risk and favors mistaken inaction on global warming. By contrast| including narrow endemics results in over-predicting extinction risk and promotes mistaken inaction on behalf of individual species prematurely considered doomed to extinction. 7675,2006,2,4,Predicting impacts of global warming on population dynamics and distribution of arthropods in Japan,The mean surface temperature rose by 1.0 degrees C over the last 40 years in Japan. Changes in the pest status| distribution range| winter mortality| and the synchronization in phenology were examined. The increase in the number of annual generations of each taxon was predicted based on the lower developmental threshold and the thermal constant. Increasing damage due to rice- and fruit-infesting bugs| their simultaneous outbreaks and the poleward geographic spread observed for six species may be triggered by global warming. The winter mortality of adults of Nezara viridula and Halyomorpha halys is predicted to be reduced by 15% by each rise of 1 degrees C. More than 50 species of butterflies showed northward range expansions and ten species of previously migrant butterflies established on Nansei Islands during 1966-1987. Global warming may be responsible for the recent decline in abundance of Plutella xylostella and the increase in Helicoverpa armigera and Trichoplusia ni. In general| global warming may work in favour of natural enemies (except for spiders) by increasing the number of generations more than in their host species. Biological control utilizing native natural enemies is expected to become a more important control tactic in the future. Greenhouse culture may provide a model of a temperate agroecosystem after global warming. The increasing occurrence of alien species of tropical origin in association with the increase in pesticide applications might be expected. Interception of alien pests by plant quarantine followed by integrated pest management is needed. 7643,2006,2,4,Predicting the influence of wolf-provided carrion on scavenger community dynamics under climate change scenarios,Climate change poses an immediate threat to the persistence and distribution of many species| yet our ability to forecast changes in species composition is hindered by poor understanding of the extent to which higher trophic-level interactions may buffer or exacerbate the adverse effects of warming. We incorporated species-specific consumption data from 240 wolf-killed elk carcasses from Yellowstone National Park into stochastic simulation models to link trends in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to food procurement by a guild of scavengers as a function of gray wolf reintroduction. We find that a shift in ENSO towards the El Nino (warming) phase of the cycle coincident with increasing global temperatures reduces carrion for scavengers| particularly those with strong seasonal patterns in resource use such as grizzly bears. Wolves alleviate these warming-induced food shortages by rendering control over this crucial resource to biotic rather than abiotic factors. Ecosystems with intact top predators are likely to exhibit stronger biotic regulation and should be more resistant to climate change than ecosystems lacking them. 7720,2006,2,4,Predicting the potential geographical distribution of parasitic weeds| a contribution to risk management: case study of Orobanche crenata,Predicting the potential geographical distribution of parasitic weeds| a contribution to risk management: case study of Orobanche crenata The potential distribution of the parasitic weed Orobanche crenata was studied in a combined literature| laboratory and simulation study. Populations of the root parasite only exist in regions with mediterranean climate| although individuals are able to reach maturity under conditions of temperate climate| too| and although O. crenata seeds can survive temperatures of -20 degrees C. The dormancy behaviour of its seeds is likely to impede the northward spread of this species| since in a continuously moist environment| hardly any dormancy release takes place. Results of sensitivity analyses using simulation models suggest that a change to warmer and/or drier climate would substantially increase the risk of O. crenata establishment at higher latitudes. The collected information can| particularly when combined with data on host crop production| contribute to parasitic weed risk management. 7490,2006,3,3,Predicting tillage practices and agricultural soil disturbance in north central Montana with Landsat imagery,Management of agricultural soils| most notably tillage| influences wind| and water erosion| which in turn has implications for non-point source pollution of pesticides| fertilizer| and sediment in agro-ecosystems. No-till (NT) practices improve soil| water| and aquatic ecosystem quality by reducing soil erosion and chemical runoff. The ability of cropland soils to sequester C from the atmosphere might help mitigate global warming. Classification of Landsat ETM+ satellite images has the potential to identify tillage practices and soil disturbance over large areas| enabling efficient monitoring of these agricultural practices. Previous studies predicting tillage management had relatively small study areas (located in a single county)| relatively low numbers of fields (6-51)| and were temporally focused on non-planted fields to reduce the potential effects of crop canopy interference and/or field patterning. Our objectives were to predict in the presence of crop canopy and over a spatially large| management diverse study area (1) tillage systems (NT versus tilled) and (2) soil disturbance. A farm survey of the study area| north central Montana| was used to as a means to obtain extensive field-level farm management data. We compared logistic regression (LR)| traditional classification tree analysis (CTA)| and boosted classification tree analysis (BCTA) for identifying NT fields. Logistic regression had an overall accuracy of 94%| BCTA 89%| and CTA 87%| but tillage was not well distinguished. Soil disturbance was estimated using linear regression (LM)| regression tree analysis (RTA)| and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB)| an RTA variant. Classification of soil disturbance was best achieved using RTA (predicted mean soil disturbance not significantly different than known soil disturbance| p-value = 0.08). Classification of Landsat ETM+ imagery showed promise for predicting tillage and agricultural soil disturbance over large| heterogeneous areas. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1598,2006,5,2,Predicting woodrat (Neotoma) responses to anthropogenic warming from studies of the palaeomidden record,Aim The influence of anthropogenic climate change on organisms is an area of great scientific concern. Increasingly there is recognition that abrupt climate transitions have occurred over the late Quaternary; studies of these shifts may yield insights into likely biotic responses to contemporary warming. Here| we review research undertaken over the past decade investigating the response of Neotoma (woodrats) body size and distribution to climate change over the late Quaternary (the last 40|000 years). By integrating information from woodrat palaeomiddens| historical museum specimens and field studies of modern populations| we identify potential evolutionary responses to climate change occurring over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Specifically| we characterize climatic thresholds in the past that led to local species extirpation and/or range alterations rather than in situ adaptation| and apply them to anticipate potential biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Location Middens were collected at about 55 sites scattered across the western United States| ranging from about 34 to 46 degrees N and about 104 to 116 degrees W| respectively. Data for modern populations were drawn from studies conducted in Death Valley| California| Missoula| Montana and the Sevilleta LTER site in central New Mexico. Methods We analysed faecal pellets from midden series collected at numerous cave sites across the western United States. From these we estimated body mass using techniques validated in earlier studies. We compared body size fluctuations at different elevations in different regions and integrated these results with studies investigating temperature-body size tradeoffs in modern animals. We also quantify the rapidity of the size changes over the late Quaternary to estimate the evolutionary capacity of woodrats to deal with predicted rates of anthropogenic climate change over the next century. Results We find remarkable similarities across the geographical range to late Quaternary climate change. In the middle of the geographical range woodrats respond in accordance to Bergmann's rule: colder climatic conditions select for larger body size and warmer conditions select for smaller body size. Patterns are more complicated at range boundaries| and local environmental conditions influence the observed response. In general| woodrat body size fluctuates with approximately the same amplitude and frequency as climate; there is a significant and positive correlation between woodrat body size and generalized climate proxies (such as ice core records). Woodrats have achieved evolutionary rates of change equal to or greater than those needed to adapt in situ to anthropogenic climate change. Main conclusions In situ body size evolution is a likely outcome of climate change| and such shifts are part of a normal spectrum of adaptation. Woodrats appear to be subject to ongoing body size selection in response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Allometric considerations suggest that these shifts in body size lead to substantial changes in the physiology| life history and ecology of woodrats| and on their direct and indirect interactions with other organisms in the ecosystem. Our work highlights the importance of a finely resolved and long-term record in understanding biotic responses to climatic shifts. 7695,2006,2,4,Prediction of macrophyte communities in drought-affected groundwater-fed headwater streams,The results of a 10 year study of groundwater-dominated streams in the chalklands of southern England show that macrophyte communities occupying the headwaters of such streams have a measurable variability in terms of species composition and spatial cover| especially in relation to river flow. This occurs as a result of species adaptation to typically ephemeral flow regimes. Associations have also been established between variations in the vegetation and hydroclimatic parameters at the catchment scale| such as rainfall| percolation and soil moisture conditions. This has led to the derivation of a system whereby the nature of headwater macrophyte communities can be forecast/hindcast| on the basis of parameterized| antecedent flow records| to a current accuracy level of 72% for any of 13 community types and 90% for any of four community groups. It is anticipated that this accuracy rate will improve with (i) an updated community classification| (ii) refinement of the parameterization procedures for flow records| and (iii) the extension of the method from the six study streams currently under scrutiny to a further 18 streams. Greater accuracy of prediction will be constrained by natural variation within the vegetation and the interaction of an array of geomorphological and land-use variables operating at diverse spatial scales. The process used here to establish vegetation-flow relationships could be used in other locations with groundwater-fed streams| providing a useful tool for assessing some of the impacts of bioclimatic changes driven by global warming. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 7295,2006,3,4,Preparation and characterization of amorphous fluorinated carbon film using low-global-warming-potential gas| C4F6| by plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition,Low-dielectric-constant amorphous fluorinated carbon (a-C:F) films were prepared using plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) from C4F6 (hexafluoro-1|3-butadiene) gas| which is expected to be a substitutional gas owing to its low global warming potential (GWP). Kinetic analysis revealed that the density of C4F6 in plasma has a proportional relation to film growth rate| which suggests that C4F6 is a main deposition precursor. From our previous study| this density affects the C-CF bond ratio in the film. In this study| we studied the effect of C-CF bond ratio on the thermal stability of the films by examining residual film thickness after vacuum annealing. A higher C-CF bond ratio resulted in a higher thermal stability| but the film became leaky after 300 degrees C annealing. 7622,2006,3,4,Preparation of amorphous fluorinated carbon film using low global-warming potential gas| C4F6| by plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition,Low-dielectric constant amorphous fluorinated carbon (a-C:F) films were prepared using plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) from C4F6 gas| which is expected to be a substitutional gas due to its low global-warming potential (GWP). Kinetic analysis revealed that C4F6 (hexafluoro-1|3-butadiene) or related molecules were a main deposition precursor and that C4F6 concentration in the plasma affected the C-CF bond ratio in the film. The contribution of orientational polarization to total dielectric constant was related to the C-CF bond ratio. The change in dielectric constant induced by changing residence time in the reactor or by changing Ar dilution of C4F6 gas was due mostly to the change in orientational polarization. Controlling the C4F6 concentration in the plasma by changing residence time is the key to controlling orientational polarization and dielectric constant. 7362,2006,3,4,Production and fabrication technology development of aluminum useful for automobile lightweighting,To undertake the development of technology to increase consumption of aluminum in passenger cars for improved fuel economy through lightweighting of cars as a measure to control global warming. More specifically| R&D is conducted on the following R&D themes to develop a material with a high formability and a technology to join a steel material| as well as to establish a technology to create materials with a good shock absorption performance. 1613,2006,2,4,Prognosis of the impact of global climate change on zonal ecosystems of the Volga river basin,On the basis of the GISS prognostic climatic model| landscape-ecological scenarios concerning the immediate future of the region are considered in the forms of cartographic and analytical models. These scenarios predict a growing thermoarid bioclimatic trend accompanied by a general northward displacement of zonal boundaries| with corresponding acceleration of the biological cycle and increase in the productivity of boreal forests. 1713,2006,2,3,Projected changes in the Caspian Sea level for the 21st century based on the latest AOGCM simulations,We use output from global climate change simulations with seven Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to assess possible changes in Caspian Sea basin hydrologic budget and corresponding changes in the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) for the 21st century under different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (A1b and A2). Although most models project an increase in precipitation over the Volga river basin| where most of the runoff into the Caspian Sea is generated| a steady decline in the CSL is mostly estimated. This is due to large increases in evapotranspiration over land and over the Caspian Sea surface. By the end of the 21st century| the ensemble average of the model-based estimates suggest a 9 meter drop in the CSL for both scenarios analyzed. This could be potentially devastating for the surrounding region if no adaptation or mitigation measures are taken. 1740,2006,2,4,Quantifying relationships between bird and butterfly community shifts and environmental change,Quantifying the manner in which ecological communities respond during a time of decreasing precipitation is a first step in understanding how they will respond to longer-term climate change. Here we coupled analysis of interannual variability in remotely sensed data with analyses of bird and butterfly community changes in montane meadow communities of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Landsat satellite imagery was used to classify these meadows into six types along a hydrological gradient. The northern portion of the ecosystem| or Gallatin region| has smaller mean patch sizes separated by ridges of mountains| whereas the southern portion of the ecosystem| or Teton region| has much larger patches within the Jackson Hole valley. Both support a similar suite of butterfly and bird species. The Gallatin region showed more overall among-year variation in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) when meadow types were pooled within regions| perhaps because the patch sizes are smaller on average. Bird and butterfly communities showed significant relationships relative to meadow type and NDVI. We identified several key species that are tightly associated with specific meadow types along the hydrological gradient. Comparing taxonomic groups| fewer birds showed specific habitat affinities than butterflies| perhaps because birds are responding to differences in habitat structure among meadow types and using the landscape at a coarser scale than the butterflies. Comparing regions| the Teton region showed higher predictability of community assemblages as compared to the Gallatin region. The Gallatin region exhibited more significant temporal trends with respect to butterflies. Butterfly communities in wet meadows showed a distinctive shift along the hydrological gradient during a drought period (1997-2000). These results imply that the larger Teton meadows will show more predictable (i.e.| static) species-habitat associations over the long term| but that the smaller Gallatin meadows may be an area that will exhibit the effects of global climate change faster. 1742,2006,2,4,Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4,[1] The global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) predict very different changes of rainfall over the Amazon under the SRES A1B scenario for global climate change. Five of the eleven models predict an increase of annual rainfall| three models predict a decrease of rainfall| and the other three models predict no significant changes in the Amazon rainfall. We have further examined two models. The UKMO-HadCM3 model predicts an El Nino-like sea surface temperature (SST) change and warming in the northern tropical Atlantic which appear to enhance atmospheric subsidence and consequently reduce clouds over the Amazon. The resultant increase of surface solar absorption causes a stronger surface sensible heat flux and thus reduces relative humidity of the surface air. These changes decrease the rate and length of wet season rainfall and surface latent heat flux. This decreased wet season rainfall leads to drier soil during the subsequent dry season| which in turn can delay the transition from the dry to wet season. GISS-ER predicts a weaker SST warming in the western Pacific and the southern tropical Atlantic which increases moisture transport and hence rainfall in the Amazon. In the southern Amazon and Nordeste where the strongest rainfall increase occurs| the resultant higher soil moisture supports a higher surface latent heat flux during the dry and transition season and leads to an earlier wet season onset. 1681,2006,2,4,Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds,Several bird species have advanced the timing of their spring migration in response to recent climate change. European short-distance migrants| wintering in temperate areas| have been assumed to be more affected by change in the European climate than long-distance migrants wintering in the tropics. However| we show that tong-distance migrants have advanced their spring arrival in Scandinavia more than short-distance migrants. By analyzing a long-term data set from southern Italy| we show that long-distance migrants also pass through the Mediterranean region earlier. We argue that this may reflect a climate-driven evolutionary change in the timing of spring migration. 1664,2006,5,4,Rapid fluctuation of alkenone temperature in the southwestern Okhotsk Sea during the past 120 ky,Sea-ice expansion in the Okhotsk Sea in winter is sensitively affected by global warming and cooling. Regionally| the southwestern Okhotsk Sea is closely linked to climate change in East Asia| including Japan| because the cold sea surface temperature (SST) in the southwestern Okhotsk Sea influences directly the development of the Okhotsk atmospheric high-pressure system| and the activated Okhotsk high causes cold climatic conditions in northern Japan. Therefore| environmental change in the Okhotsk Sea indicates two-way interactions as a sensitive mirror reflecting global climate change and as a driving force of regional climate change. To better understand how surface environmental changes in the Okhotsk Sea can influence climate change in East Asia| SSTs were estimated in the southwestern Okhotsk Sea for the past 120 ky with millennial to centennial time resolution using the long-chain unsaturated alkyl ketone (alkenone) thermometer. The alkenone temperature| which corresponds to the SST to 20 in depth in autumn| showed repeated abrupt changes at a centennial timescale| especially during the last glacial period| 20-60 ky before present (BP). The alkenone temperature changed concurrently with changes from interstadials (warm events) to stadials (cold events) in the delta(18)O record of the ice cores from Greenland| although some interstadials could not be identified in the alkenone temperature record. A wavelet power spectrum analysis showed that a periodicity of about 8 ky was prominent during 10-90 ky BP| and a 4- to 5-ky cycle was characteristic during 30-40 ky BP in the alkenone temperature records. These periodicities were both similar and dissimilar to those in the Polar Circulation Index| which is based on the atmospheric circulation intensity at high latitudes| as recorded by major-ion concentrations in GISP2. Both the similarity and dissimilarity imply that the SST in the southwestern Okhotsk Sea is controlled mainly by the atmosphere-ocean circulation system in the Northern Hemisphere; however| the relationship between the SST in the Okhotsk Sea and the climate in the Greenland is not linear. Anomalously high alketione temperatures occurred repeatedly in the glacial period. These warm alkenone temperature episodes would have had multiple causes. In particular| high alkenone temperatures during the last glacial maximum (LGM) have been reported previously for locations near this study site. More investigations are necessary to understand what happened in the Okhotsk Sea and in adjacent seas at the time of the LGM. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7492,2006,3,3,Rate coefficients for the reactions of OH with CF3CH2CH3 (HFC-263fb)| CF3CHFCH2F (HFC-245eb)| and CHF2CHFCHF2 (HFC-245ea) between 238 and 375 K,Rate coefficients for reaction of the hydroxyl radical (OH) with three hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) CF3CH2CH3| HFC-263fb| (k(1)); CF3CHFCH2F| HFC-245eb| (k(2)); and CHF2CHFCHF2| HFC-245ea| (k(3)); which are suggested as potential substitutes to chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)| were measured using pulsed laser photolysis-laser-induced fluorescence (PLP-LIF) between 235 and 375 K. The Arrhenius expressions obtained are k(1)(T) (4.36 +/- 0.72) x 10(-12) exp[-(1290 +/- 40)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1); k(2)(T) (1.23 +/- 0.18) x 10(-12) exp[-( 1250 +/- 40)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1); k(3)(T) (1.91 +/- 0.42) x 10(-12) exp[-( 1375 +/- 100)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The quoted uncertainties are 95% confidence limits and include estimated systematic errors. The present results are discussed and compared with rate coefficients available in the literature. Our results are also compared with those calculated using structure activity relationships (SAR) for fluorinated compounds. The IR absorption cross-sections at room temperature for these compounds were measured over the range of 500 to 4000 cm(-1). The global warming potentials (GWPs) of CF3CH2CH3(HFC-263fb)| CF3CHFCH2F(HFC-245eb)| and CHF2CHFCHF2(HFC-245ea) were calculated to be 234| 962| and 723 for a 20-year horizon; 70| 286| and 215 for a 100-year horizon; and 22| 89| and 68 for a 500-year horizon; and the atmospheric lifetimes of these compounds are 0.8| 2.5| and 2.6 years| respectively. It is concluded that these compounds are acceptable substitutes for CFCs in terms of their impact on Earth's climate. 7426,2006,5,4,Recent and simultaneous origins of eusociality in halictid bees,Eusocial organisms are characterized by cooperative brood care| generation overlap and reproductive division of labour. Traits associated with eusociality are most developed in ants| termites| paper wasps and corbiculate bees; the fossil record indicates that each of these advanced eusocial taxa evolved in the Late Cretaceous or earlier (greater than 65 Myr ago). Halictid bees also include a large and diverse number of eusocial members| but| in contrast to advanced eusocial taxa| they are characterized by substantial intra- and inter-specific variation in social behaviour| which may be indicative of more recent eusocial evolution. To test this hypothesis| we used over 2400 bp of DNA sequence data gathered from three protein-coding nuclear genes (opsin| wingless and EF-1a) to infer the phylogeny of eusocial halictid lineages and their relatives. Results from relaxed molecular clock dating techniques that utilize a combination of molecular and fossil data indicate that the three independent origins of eusociality in halictid bees occurred within a narrow time frame between approximately 20 and 22 Myr ago. This relatively recent evolution helps to explain the pronounced levels of social variation observed within these bees. The three origins of eusociality appear to be temporally correlated with a period of global warming| suggesting that climate may have had an important role in the evolution and maintenance of eusociality in these bees. 7704,2006,2,4,Recent changes in body weight and wing length among some British passerine birds,We tested the prediction that global warming has caused recent decreases in body weight (Bergmann's rule) and increases in wing length (Allen's rule) in 14 species of passerine birds at two localities in England: Wicken Fen (1968-2003) and Treswell Wood (1973-2003). Predicted long-term linear decreases in residual body weight occurred in four species: dunnocks (Wicken Fen)| and great tits| blue tits and bullfinches (Treswell Wood). Non-linear decreases also occurred in reed warblers and blackcaps at Wicken Fen| which also had a surprising linear increase in residual body weight in blackbirds. Residual wing lengths increased linearly| as predicted| in six of seven species at Wicken Fen. Whereas there were non-linear long-term increases in wrens| dunnocks and blackbirds in Treswell Wood. Unexpected linear decreases also occurred in residual wing lengths in willow warblers (Wicken Fen)| and blue tits| great tits and chaffinches (Treswell Wood). The most parsimonious explanation for such long-term changes in body weight is global warming| as predicted by Bergmann's rule. Greater site and species-specific effects on wing length (e.g. non-linear changes plus shorter wings in the woodland habitat) suggest a less straightforward conclusion concerning Allen's rule| probably because wing length involved variation in both bone and feather growth. Changes in residual body weights and wing lengths often differed between species and were sometimes non-linear| perhaps reflecting short-term modifications in selection pressures. Human-induced influences are discussed| such as avian predator population densities and land-use change. Short-term variation in temperature had little effect| but rainfall did explain the unusual increase in blackbird body weight| possibly as a result of improving food (earthworm) availability. 7487,2006,2,4,Recent decrease in gentoo penguin populations at Iles Kerguelen,Several sub-Antarctic penguin populations have exhibited decreasing trends in the last 5-20 years. At Iles Kerguelen| the gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua) has decreased by approximately 30% over the last 15 years. This decrease is likely to be related to reduced food availability for this coastal species. We discuss this decrease with regard to the impact of overfishing and to the potential effects of climate changes on marine food webs. 7565,2006,2,4,Recent increase in persistence of atmospheric circulation over Europe: Comparison with long-term variations since 1881,Long-term changes in the persistence of atmospheric circulation (measured by the mean residence time of circulation types) over Europe since 1881 are studied using the Hess-Brezowsky classification of Grosswelterlagen. A comprehensive statistical analysis is performed utilizing tests for change points| trends and outliers. The most remarkable feature of the long-term variations in the persistence of circulation patterns is a general sharp increase from the 1970s to the late 1980s. The shift towards higher persistence is statistically significant in most groups of the types and most seasons and is confirmed by all the statistical tools. The 1986-2000 period is an outlier| and the most pronounced change point in the time series appears in the mid-1980s. The observed increase in the mean lifetime of the circulation types over European mid-latitudes seems to be consistent with the idea of global warming| which is likely to shift the areas with the highest baroclinic activity (storm tracks) northwards. The enhanced persistence of the atmospheric circulation may have also supported the more frequent occurrence of temperature and other climatic extremes in Europe recently. Copyright (C) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. 7427,2006,4,4,Recent rapid warming trend revealed from the isotopic record in Muztagata ice core| eastern Pamirs,[ 1] Many have made efforts to clarify the climatic significance of stable isotopic variations in ice cores around central Asia through the study of stable isotopes in present-day precipitation. A new shallow ice core from Muztagata| in the eastern Pamirs| allows for a detailed comparison of annual delta O-18 variation with local meteorological data as well as with global air temperature variations. On the basis of a comparison of seasonal fluctuations of delta O-18 in the local precipitation| the 41.6-m ice core drilled at 7010 m provides a record of about one-half century. The annual fluctuations of delta O-18 in this ice core are in good agreement ( correlation coefficient of 0.67) with the annual air temperature changes at the nearby meteorological station Taxkorgen| indicating that the isotopic record from this ice core is a reliable temperature trend indicator. The most important discovery from the delta O-18 variation of this ice core is a rapid warming trend in the 1990s| which is consistent with a general global warming trend over this time period. This recent rapid warming at higher elevations in this area has led to the quick retreat of alpine glaciers. 7573,2006,2,4,Recent trends in Canadian lake ice cover,Recent studies have shown that ice duration in lakes and rivers over the Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the 19th and 20th centuries in response to global warming. However| lake ice trends have not been well documented in Canada. Because of its size| considerable variability may exist in both freeze-Lip and break-Lip dates across the country. In this paper| results of the analysis of recent trends (1951-2000) in freeze-up and break-up dates across Canada are presented. Trends toward earlier break-up dates are observed for most lakes during the time periods of analysis which encompass the 1990s. Freeze-up dates| on the other hand| show few significant trends and a low degree of temporal coherence when compared with break-up dates. These results are compared with trends in autumn and spring 0 degrees C isotherm dates over the time period 1966-95. Similar spatial and temporal patterns are observed| with generally significant trends toward earlier springs/break-up dates over most of western Canada and little change in isotherm and freeze-Lip dates over the majority of the country in autumn. Strong cot-relations (r > 0-5) between 0 degrees C isotherm dates and freeze-up/break-up dates at many locations across the Country reveal the high synchrony of these variables. These results ire also consistent with more recent observations of other cryospheric and atmospheric variables that indicate| in particular| a general trend toward earlier springs in the latter part of the 20th century. The results of this study provide further evidence of the robustness of lake ice as a proxy indicator of climate variability and change. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 7640,2006,3,3,Rechargeable Li2O2 electrode for lithium batteries,Rechargeable lithium batteries represent one of the most important developments in energy storage for 100 years| with the potential to address the key problem of global warming. However| their ability to store energy is limited by the quantity of lithium that may be removed from and reinserted into the positive intercalation electrode| LixCoO2| 0.5 < x < 1 (corresponding to 140 mA(.)h g(-1) of charge storage). Abandoning the intercalation electrode and allowing Li to react directly with O-2 from the air at a porous electrode increases the theoretical charge storage by a remarkable 5-10 times! Here we demonstrate two essential prerequisites for the successful operation of a rechargeable Li/O-2 battery; that the Li2O2 formed on discharging such an O-2 electrode is decomposed to Li and O-2 on charging (shown here by in situ mass spectrometry)| with or without a catalyst| and that charge/discharge cycling is sustainable for many cycles. 7620,2006,4,4,Redox potential characterization and soil greenhouse gas concentration across a hydrological gradient in a Gulf coast forest,Soil redox potential (Eh)| concentrations of oxygen (O-2) and three greenhouse gases (CO2| CH4| and N2O) were measured in the soil profile of a coastal forest at ridge| transition| and swamp across a hydrological gradient. The results delineated a distinct boundary in soil Eh and O-2 concentration between the ridge and swamp with essentially no overlap between the two locations. Critical soil Eh to initiate significant CH4 production under this field conditions was about +300 mV| much higher than in the homogenous soils (about -150 mV). The strength of CH4 source to the atmosphere was strong for the swamp| minor for the transition| and negligible or even negative (consumption) for the ridge. Maximum N2O concentration in the soils was found at about Eh +250 mV| and the soil N2O emission was estimated to account for less than 4% for the ridge and transition| and almost negligible for the swamp in the cumulative global warming potential (GWP) of these three gases. The dynamic nature of this study site in response to water table fluctuations across a hydrological gradient makes it an ideal model of impact of future sea level rise to coastal ecosystems. Soil carbon (C) sequestration potential due to increasing soil water content upon sea level rise and subsidence in this coastal forest was likely limited and temporal| and at the expense of increasing soil CH4 production and emission. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7648,2006,2,4,Reduced mixing generates oscillations and chaos in the oceanic deep chlorophyll maximum,Deep chlorophyll maxima (DCMs) are widespread in large parts of the world's oceans(1-7). These deep layers of high chlorophyll concentration reflect a compromise of phytoplankton growth exposed to two opposing resource gradients: light supplied from above and nutrients supplied from below. It is often argued that DCMs are stable features. Here we show| however| that reduced vertical mixing can generate oscillations and chaos in phytoplankton biomass and species composition of DCMs. These fluctuations are caused by a difference in the timescales of two processes: (1) rapid export of sinking plankton| withdrawing nutrients from the euphotic zone and (2) a slow upward flux of nutrients fuelling new phytoplankton production. Climate models predict that global warming will reduce vertical mixing in the oceans(8-11). Our model indicates that reduced mixing will generate more variability in DCMs| thereby enhancing variability in oceanic primary production and in carbon export into the ocean interior. 7276,2006,3,2,Reducing carbon dioxide emissions from UK road transport,Several cases of extreme local weather conditions since the storms of October 1987 have served as reminders of some of the possible consequences of global warming| recently more usually| although less precisely| referred to as 'climate change'. Carbon dioxide emissions have been identified as the principal likely culprit and road traffic is the only major source from the UK which is increasing in amount. Local authorities may feel impotent to make a significant contribution to a solution| but example is a worthwhile motive. A local authority can contribute in several ways: implementation of improved vehicle technologies; adopting road speed limits and upholding them; promotion of driving styles which are more sensitive to their environmental effects and of improved vehicle maintenance; policies to change mode of travel and transport and to reduce the amount of travel by several means| including fuller use of vehicles. Many of the ways of reducing carbon dioxide discharges locally will have other environmental benefits. The implementation of cleaner travel lags behind the science to allow it; local authorities have an important role to play in reducing the gap. Average vehicle loadings are low| especially for personal travel; there is much scope for improved environmental performance| and for public transport there are issues relating to value for public spending. Reductions in the amount of travel can also contribute to several government policies relating to social exclusion| promotion of sustainable communities and supporting town centre activities. 1728,2006,3,2,Reducing conflicts between climate policy and energy policy in the US: The important role of the states,The absence of US national action oil global climate change policy has prompted initiatives by the US Congress| cities| states| and regions toward what is likely to become it long-term| collaborative effort to harmonize national energy and climate policies. This upward evolution in the face of it reluctant administration is historically consistent with the development of national legislation on other environmental and social issues in the US. At the heart of this movement is the need to resolve conflicts between high-intensity use of low-cost fossil energy Supplies| and the dominating impact of carbon dioxide emissions oil global climate change. US states are among the largest carbon dioxide emitters in the world and play a critical role in supplying and transforming energy| its well as consuming it| for economic advantage. State governments are also likely to have to shoulder some of the cost of potentially extensive climate damages and bear the brunt of the cost of implementing future federal mandates. As a result| many are taking proactive stances oil the development of climate mitigation policy to prepare for| accelerate| and/or guide national policy. As US states show leadership on addressing greenhouse gas emissions| they also play an important role in forging policies and measures that reduce economic conflict between energy and climate goals. A number have launched or completed greenhouse gas mitigation plans and other major policies in the past few years that address these conflicts through: (1) finding ways to reduce mitigation costs| including the use of incentive-based policy instruments; (2) promoting ail open and democratic policy process that includes major stakeholders; (3) promoting equity across socioeconomic groups| regions| and generations; and (4) promoting interregional cooperation. The results are promising and suggest that the state arena for climate and energy policy is evolving quickly and constructively toward alternatives that reduce conflict. Regional efforts are also unfolding| along with greater congressional attention to the lessons learned and commitments made by sub-federal actions. In the next few years many national energy and climate conflicts are likely to be tested and addressed by states. Among these| Pennsylvania is likely to be an important player due to its high profile of energy production and potential for leadership. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1703,2006,2,4,Reduction processes in forest wetlands: Tracking down heterogeneity of source/sink functions with a combination of methods,Wetlands are considered to be the biggest unknowns regarding the influence of global climate change on element dynamics| so knowledge of processes and conditions controlling sink and source functions of redox processes is crucial. The aim of this study was to investigate the sink/source function of nitrate| Fe| sulfate reduction and methanogenesis of an upland and a lowland fen within a boreal spruce catchment| southern Germany. We used suction cups and anaerobic dialysis chambers for soil solution sampling| FeS probes for the determination of S oxidation potential and stability of anoxic conditions and analysis of the soil solid phase (contents of C| S and Fe species). Both fens had high rates of nitrate reduction and potentially high rates of CH4 production. The upper few cm of all profiles were oxic with low CH4 concentrations| suggesting low CH4 emission rates from the soil| though emission by vascular plants cannot be excluded. Sulfate and Fe reduction processes differed significantly in the fens. The upland fen was characterized by relatively stable anoxic conditions| low Fe contents but high contents of organic S and low C/S ratios. We concluded that the upland fen is an effective sink for sulfate with long-term S storage. In contrast| the lowland fen was characterized by alternating oxidation-reduction cycles with high Fe contents| lower contents of organic S and higher C/S ratios. Thus| even though low sulfate and high Fe concentrations in soil solutions indicated high reduction rates in the lowland fen| long-term storage of S is not likely in this fen. Differences in biogeochemical processes between sites are most likely not associated with hydrology but rather with the role of vascular plants. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1682,2006,2,4,Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin| China,The hydrological response to climate change in the Tarim River Basin was investigated by analysing the hydrological. temperature and precipitation data of the past 50 years. The long-term trend of the hydrological time-series| including air temperature| precipitation| and streamflow| was examined by using both parametric and non-parametric techniques and the plausible association between streamflow and climate change by the method of are)| correlation analysis. The results show that the study area became warmer in the last few decades. The air temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase by 5%; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s and then a major increase in the 1980s and 1990s| with average annual precipitation up by 6.8 nun per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and precipitation around 1986| with mean temperature and precipitation increasing from 6.7 degrees C and 146 mm before 1986 to 7.3 degrees C and 180 mm respectively after 1986. The temperature has risen by nearly 1 degrees C over the past 50 years| possibly resulting from the impact of global climate change. Streamflows in the Aksu River and the Yarkant River have shown a significant (P < 0.05) tendency of increase. This is particularly the case for the Aksu River. The coefficients of streamflow increase in the Aksu and Yarkant Rivers are 0.41 and 0.13 respectively. The results of grey correlation analysis show that in the Aksu River. which is located in the northwest of the basin| the impact of precipitation on streamflow is much greater than that of temperature. However| in the Hotan River| which is located in the southwest of the basin| the impact of temperature on streamflow is much greater than that of precipitation. This is likely to be related to the geographic distribution of the headstreams of the rivers. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 1684,2006,2,3,Regional climate change and its impact on photooxidant concentrations in southern Germany: Simulations with a coupled regional climate-chemistry model,[ 1] In order to investigate possible effects of global climate change on the near-surface concentrations of photochemical compounds in southern Germany| nested regional simulations with a coupled climate-chemistry model were carried out. The simulations with a horizontal resolution of 60 km for Europe and 20 km for central Europe were driven by meteorological boundary conditions provided by a long-term simulation of the global climate model ECHAM4. Two time slices of about 10 years were compared| one representing the 1990s and one representing the 2030s. For the region of southern Germany the simulations show an increase of the mean summer temperature by almost 2 degrees along with a decrease of cloud water and ice and a corresponding increase of the photolysis frequencies and the emissions of biogenic hydrocarbons. Under the model assumption of unchanged anthropogenic emissions this leads to an increase of the mean mixing ratios of most photooxidants. Because of the complex topography and the heterogeneous distribution of precursor emissions all parameters show pronounced regional patterns. The average daily maximum ozone concentrations in southern Germany increase for the considered scenario by nearly 10% in the summer months. Depending on the region| the increase of the mean daily maximum ranges between 2 and 6 ppb. As a consequence| the number of days when the 8-hour mean of the ozone concentration exceeds the threshold value of 120 mu g m(-3) increases by 5 to 12 days per year. 7375,2006,2,3,Regional tropical precipitation change mechanisms in ECHAM4/OPYC3 under global warming,Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation are examined in a coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model (ECHAM4/OPYC3). The pattern of the regional tropical precipitation changes| once established| tends to persist| growing in magnitude as greenhouse gases increase. The sulfate aerosol induces regional tropical precipitation anomalies similar to the greenhouse gases but with opposite sign| thus reducing the early signal. Evidence for two main mechanisms| the upped-ante and the anomalous gross moist stability (M') mechanisms ( previously proposed in an intermediate complexity model)| is found in this more comprehensive coupled general circulation model. Preferential moisture increase occurs in convection zones. The upped-ante mechanism signature of dry advection from nonconvective regions is found in tropical drought regions on the margins of convection zones. Here advection in both the atmospheric boundary layer and lower free troposphere are found to be important| with an additional contribution from horizontal temperature transport in some locations. The signature of the M' mechanism - moisture convergence due to increased moisture in regions of large mean vertical motion enhances precipitation within strong convective regions. Ocean dynamical feedbacks can be assessed by net surface flux| the main example being the El Nino-like shift of the equatorial Pacific convection zone. Cloud-radiative feedbacks are found to oppose precipitation anomalies over ocean regions. 1626,2006,2,4,Relationship between climate| pollen concentrations of Ambrosia and medical consultations for allergic rhinitis in Montreal| 1994-2002,The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on Ambrosia pollen concentrations and its impact on medical consultations for allergic rhinitis of residents from various socio-economic levels in Montreal (Quebec| Canada) between 1994 and 2002. The study was conducted to recognize the sensitivity of pollen productivity to daily climate variability in order to estimate the consequences on human health vulnerability in the context of global climate change. Information related to medical consultations for allergic rhinitis due to pollen comes from the Quebec Health Insurance Board (Regie de l'assurance-maladie du Quebec). Ambrosia pollen concentration was measured by the Aerobiology Research Laboratories (Nepean| Ontario). Daily temperature (maximum| minimum| and mean) and precipitation data were obtained from the Meteorological Service of Canada. Socio-economic data come from the 1996 and 2001 census data of Statistics Canada. Between 1994 and 2002| during the Ambrosia pollen season| 7667 consultations for allergic rhinitis due to pollen were recorded. We found a significant association between the number of medical consultations and pollen levels. Significant associations were detected for over-consultation the day of exposure| 1| 2| 3 and 5 days after exposure to high levels of pollen. The consultation rate is higher from low-income residents (3.10 consultations per 10|000 inhabitants) than for high-income (1.65 consultations per 10|000 inhabitants). Considering the demonstrated impact of pollen levels on health| it has become critical to ensure adequate monitoring of Ambrosia and its meteorological sensivity in the context of the anticipated climate change and its potential consequences on human health. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7312,2006,2,4,Remote sensing for predicting potential habitats of Oncomelania hupensis in Hongze| Baima and Gaoyou lakes in Jiangsu province| China,Political and health sector reforms| along with demographic| environmental and socio-economic transformations in the face of global warming| could cause the re-emergence of schistosomiasis in areas where transmission has been successfully interrupted and its emergence in previously non-endemic areas in China. In the present study| we used geographic information systems and remote sensing techniques to predict potential habitats of Oncomelania hupensis| the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum. Focussing on the Hongze| Baima and Gaoyou lakes in Jiangsu province in eastern China| we developed a model using the normalized difference vegetation index| a tasseled-cap transformed wetness indes| and flooding areas to predict snail habitats at a small scale. Data were extracted from two Landsat images| one taken during a typical dry year and the other obtained three years later during a flooding event. An area of approximately 163.6 km(2) was predicted as potential O. hupensis habitats around the three lakes| which accounts for 4.3% of the estimated snail habitats in China. In turn| these predicted snail habitats are risk areas for transmission of schistosomiasis| and hence illustrate the scale of the possible impact of climate change and other ecological transformations. The generated risk map can be used by health policy makers to guide mitigation policies targetting the possible spread of O. hupensis| and with the aim of containing the transmission of S. japonicum. 7350,2006,2,4,Remote sensing image-based analysis of the relationship between urban heat island and land use/cover changes,Global warming has obtained more and more attention because the global mean surface temperature has increased since the late 19th century. As more than 50% of the human population lives in cities| urbanization has become an important contributor for global warming. Pearl River Delta (PRD) in Guangdong Province| southern China| is one of the regions experiencing rapid urbanization that has resulted in remarkable Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect| which will be sure to influence the regional climate| environment| and socio-economic development. In this study| Landsat TM and ETM+ images from 1990 to 2000 in the PRD were selected to retrieve the brightness temperatures and land use/cover types. A new index| Normalized Difference Bareness Index (NDBaI)| was proposed to extract bare land from the satellite images. Additionally| Shenzhen| which has experienced the fastest urbanization in Guangdong Province| was taken as an example to analyze the temperature distribution and changes within a large city as its size expanded in the past decade. Results show that the UHI effect has become more prominent in areas of rapid urbanization in the PRD region. The spatial distribution of heat islands has been changed from a mixed pattern| where bare land| semi-bare land and land under development were warmer than other surface types| to extensive UHI. Our analysis showed that higher temperature in the UHI was located with a scattered pattern| which was related to certain land-cover types. In order to analyze the relationship between UHI and land-cover changes| this study attempted to employ a quantitative approach in exploring the relationship between temperature and several indices| including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)| Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI)| Normalized Difference Bareness Index (NDBaI) and Normalized Difference Build-up Index (NDBI). It was found that correlations between NDVI| NDWI| NDBaI and temperature are negative when NDVI is limited in range| but positive correlation is shown between NDBI and temperature. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 7236,2006,2,4,Reproduction and length-weight relationships of Pomadasys incisus (Haemulidae) from Tunis Gulf.,This work describes the reproductive physiology of the bastard grunt and gives some characteristics on the reproduction and growth in weight. Pomadasys incisus was caught with small-scale fishing fleet in the Tunis Gulf| and were sampled several times a month| from October 1991 to September 1994. The whole sample consisted in 1|325 specimens with total length ranging from 11.3 to 25.2 cm and weight from 20 to 248.5 g. The study of the reproductive characteristics is| at once| based on the evaluation of sex ratio in relation with size class and with sexual cycle. Monthly fluctuations of the gonadosomatic index combined with those of the gonad maturity stages frequencies allowed us to specify the various periods of the sexual cycle. Also| lengths at first maturity (TL50 and TL100) were estimated by fitting the relative frequency of all mature individuals to a logistic curve by non-linear regression. Moreover| monthly evolution of the condition factor| the hepatosomatic index and the nutrition index| related to sexual cycle periods and mean sea water temperatures try to give an interpretation of P incisus physiology. Growth in weight is appreciated by the means of length-weight relationships. Sex ratio is always in favour of females. Sexual maturity is attained at the same time for males and females. Sizes related to 50% and 100% of matured fish were respectively 16.13 and 21 cm. P incisus capture| by the artisanal fishery in the Tunis Gulf| occurs before sexual maturity. Therefore| biomass of spawners seems to be accessible to that fishing pattern. Sexual activity extended from June to November. Gonad maturation was carried out| between June and September| when mean sea water temperature raised from 15 to 22 degrees C; spawning peaks occurred in October when temperature falling from 22 to 17 degrees C. During winter time| when feeding activity was reduced| bastard grunt condition was the worst. P. incisus feeding is rather linked to seasonal variations of prey abundance than to physiological status. Female hepatic reserves are mobilised at the beginning of gonad maturation and are released during its terminal phase. Relative growth in weight was the same within males and females. Global length-weight relationship was Pb = 0.0107 LT3.019 and was isometric. Growths in length and weight seemed better in the Atlantic Ocean than in the Mediterranean Sea. This work underlines also the recent abundance of the bastard grunt in Tunis Gulf; moreover| that fish| whose origin is tropical| finds in Tunis bay favourable conditions for its reproduction. Because of its actual regional proliferation and its extension in the Mediterranean Sea| P. incisus may be considered as a biological indicator of the global warming of Mediterranean Sea. 7699,2006,2,4,Reproductive responses of two related coexisting songbird species to environmental changes: global warming| competition| and population sizes,Comparative analyses of interspecific differences in response to climate change can provide important insights into the factors initiating seasonal onset of reproduction in various species and subsequent fitness consequences. We present a comparative analysis based on a 30-year breeding survey of two related migratory songbird species [Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus (RW) and Great Reed Warbler A. arundinaceus (GRW)]| which coexist in reedbeds by means of various interspecific interactions. The RW advanced breeding by 15 days and shortened its breeding time window| which is a combined effect of higher temperatures| alleviated competition as a consequence of population declines in the dominant GRW| and reduced RW population. Although the breeding period of GRW changed only slightly| its clutch initiation was likewise related to temperature. Most probably| advanced breeding in RW is favoured by changes in food supply and accelerated reed growth| which provides the necessary nest concealment earlier| whereas this does not affect the GRW| a species less vulnerable to nest predation. Clutch size decreased later in the season| so that earlier breeding produced a net increase in both species. An additional increase of clutch size in GRW can be explained by the use of higher-quality territories in today's smaller population. The main causes of nest losses were predation in RW and adverse weather in GRW| but reproductive success increased over the study period in both species| which was a consequence of larger clutches in RW| but of favourable weather during rearing and fewer total losses in GRW. Our results document that different causal mechanisms are involved in the reproductive changes of the two congeneric species living in the same habitat: RW breeding earlier by making use of competitive release and other ecological improvements| and GRW by benefiting from better rearing conditions. As species respond differentially to climate change depending on ecosystem and biotic interactions| predictions of population dynamics will remain vague until the specific response mechanisms have been elucidated. 7443,2006,2,4,Respiratory substrate availability plays a crucial role in the response of soil respiration to environmental factors,We examined the response of the temperature coefficient (Q(10)) for soil respiration to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture through a laboratory incubation experiment. Two types of soils differing in vegetation and moisture status were collected and incubated under two temperatures (10 and 30 degrees C) and two soil moisture regimes (35 and 75% of water holding capacity| WHC) for 5 weeks. Before and after the incubation experiment| the temperature coefficient of soil respiration was measured using soda-lime method by changing temperature in a water bath. For both soils| the mean Q10 values of the respiration rate were 2.0 in the 30 degrees C and 2.3 in the 10 degrees C soil treatments. Higher temperature with lower soil moisture treatment significantly decreased the Q10 value| whereas lower temperature with higher soil moisture treatment significantly enhanced the Q10 value (ANOVA| p < 0.05). These results indicate that soils became less sensitive to temperature when incubated under higher temperature with higher moisture conditions| and more sensitive in lower temperature with higher moisture conditions. There was a significant correlation (r(2) = 0.67| p < 0.05) between water-soluble carbon (WSC) and soil respiration rate. However| the correlation between soil respiration rate and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) was weak (r(2) = 0.27| p > 0.05). Although incubation temperature and moisture accounted for 40 and 29% (as r(2) x 100%)| respectively| of variations in Q(10)| soil water-soluble carbon content alone could have explained 79% of the variation| indicating that the availability of respiratory substrate| rather than the pool of soil microorganisms| played a crucial role in the response of the temperature coefficient to environmental factors. These results suggest that biotic factors should also be taken into consideration when using the Q(10) function to predict the response of soil respiration to global warming. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7373,2006,2,2,Response of hurricane-type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE-Climat at high resolution,Atlantic hurricanes and their sensitivity to anthropogenic warming are investigated using very high (0.5 degrees x0.5 degrees over the Atlantic domain) resolution global simulations. The ARPEGE-Climat variable resolution grid demonstrates its usefulness in regional climate studies since resolution can be multiplied by a factor of 2.5 over the domain of interest compared to a uniform grid| for a similar computer cost. The question of hurricane characteristics dependence on anthropogenic warming is tackled trough the implementation of a tracking method. Changes in the total number| as well as locations| of hurricanes appear to depend more on sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns anomaly than Atlantic mean intensity| essentially through the change in large scale vertical wind shear. A uniform SST anomaly forcing produces increased and eastward shifted systems while a spatially contrasted anomaly leads to a decrease. Comparison between cyclogenesis density calculated from tracking or large scale combined variables (as a modified Gray parameter) brings some confidence in the use of the latter to investigate low resolution simulations. Mean hurricane dynamical characteristics are weakly changed by the warming but precipitation core and latent heat flux are enhanced in all scenarios. 7323,2006,2,4,Response of monsoon precipitation in the Himalayas to global warming,[1] Reconstruction of annual net accumulation using ice cores from the Dasuopu glacier reveals monsoon precipitation variability in the central Himalayas over the past three centuries. We found that the broad features of the snow accumulation are reverse to the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction over the past 300 years. On average| a 0.1 degrees C change in Northern Hemisphere temperature is associated with about 100 +/- 10 mm change in snow accumulation in the Dasuopu ice core. Especially during the period 1920 - 1995 the snow accumulation in the Dasuopu ice core decreased about 500 mm while Northern Hemisphere temperature increased about 0.5 degrees C| which contrasts with previous studies that indicate an increase of summer monsoon precipitation in High Asia is a consequence of global warming. For the period 1900 - 1995 Indian monsoon precipitation in the Himalayas| Nepal| Bangladesh and northern India highly correlate with the thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and the tropic Indian Ocean. Although the Tibetan Plateau has experienced statistically significant warming until to the early 1960s| the linear warming trend on the Tibetan Plateau is still less than that in the tropical Indian Ocean during the period 1900 - 1995| suggesting a decreasing thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and the tropical Indian Ocean. We infer that transportation of water vapor from the tropical Indian Ocean to the Himalayas is decreasing as a result of the decreasing thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and the tropical Indian Ocean. 7542,2006,2,3,Response of North Pacific ocean circulation in a Kuroshio-resolving ocean model to an Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like change in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation due to greenhouse-gas forcing,Time-slice experiments are performed using a high-resolution North Pacific ocean general circulation model (NPOGCM) resolving the strong currents near Japan| such as the Kuroshio and the Oyashio| to investigate the effect of global warming on the North Pacific ocean circulation. The NPOGCM is forced by heat| momentum| and fresh-water fluxes obtained from a global warming projection using a global climate model (MRI-CGCM2.2). The annual mean sea-level pressure trend exhibits an annular pattern similar to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation in a global warming projection by MRI-CGCM2.2 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SIZES A2 emission scenario. Associated with this trend| the anticyclonic atmospheric circulation is intensified over the mid-latitude North-Pacific| leading to a northward shift of the oceanic subtropical wind-driven gyre boundary| where extensions of the Kuroshio exist in MRI-CGCM2.2. Under these forcing changes| NPOGCM projects that in the future climate warm core eddies are more frequently pinched off from the Kuroshio off the eastern coast of Japan| leading to an annual mean SST rise over 5 K at its maximum| compared with the present climate. The projected annual mean sea-level rise ranges from 12 to 18 cm along the coasts of Japan| and about 40 cm over the ocean east of Japan. 7485,2006,2,3,Response of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and ventilation to increasing carbon dioxide in CCSM3,The response of the North Atlantic thermolialine circulation to idealized climate forcing of 1 % per year compound increase in CO2 is examined in three configurations of the Community Climate System Model version 3 that differ in their component model resolutions. The strength of the Atlantic overturning circulation declines at a rate of 22%-26% of the corresponding control experiment maximum overturning per century in response to the increase in CO2. The mean meridional overturning and its variability on decadal time scales in the control experiments| the rate of decrease in the transient forcing experiments| and the rate of recovery in periods of CO2 stabilization all increase with increasing component model resolution. By examining the changes in ocean surface forcing with increasing CO2 in the framework of the water-mass transformation function| we show that the decline in the overturning is driven by decreasing density of the subpolar North Atlantic due to increasing surface heat fluxes. While there is an intensification of the hydrologic cycle in response to increasing CO2| the net effect of changes in surface freshwater fluxes on those density classes that are involved in deep-water formation is to increase their density; that is| changes in surface freshwater fluxes act to maintain a stronger overturning circulation. The differences in the control experiment overturning strength and the response to increasing CO2 are well predicted by the corresponding differences in the water-mass transformation rate. Reduction of meridional heat transport and enhancement of meridional salt transport from mid- to high latitudes with increasing CO2 also act to strengthen the overturning circulation. Analysis of the trends in an ideal age tracer provides a direct measure of changes in ocean ventilation time scale in response to increasing CO2. In the subpolar North Atlantic south of the Greenland-Scotland ridge system| there is a significant increase in subsurface ages as open-ocean deep convection is diminished and ventilation switches to a predominance of overflow waters. In middle and low latitudes there is a decrease in age within and just below the thermocline in response to a decrease in the upwelling of old deep waters. However| when considering ventilation within isopycnal layers| age increases for layers in and below the thermocline due to the deepening of isopycnals in response to global warming. 7522,2006,4,4,Reversal of the trend in global anthropogenic sulfur emissions,Global anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased until the late 1980s. Existing estimates for 1995 and 2000 show a moderate decline from 1990 to 1995 or relative stability throughout the decade. This paper combines previously published data and new econometric estimates to show a 22% decline over the decade to a level not seen since the mid-1960s. The decline is evident in North America| Western and Eastern Europe| and in the last few years in East and South Asia. If this new trend is maintained| local air pollution problems will be ameliorated but global warming may be somewhat exacerbated. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7497,2006,3,4,Revised IR spectrum| radiative efficiency and global warming potential of nitrogen trifluoride,Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) is an industrial gas used in the semiconductor industry as a plasma etchant and chamber cleaning gas. NF3 is an alternative to other potent greenhouse gases and its usage has increased markedly over the last decade. In recognition of its increased relevance and to aid planning of future usage we report an updated radiative efficiency and global warming potentials for NF3. Laboratory measurements give an integrated absorption cross section of 7.04 x 10(-17) cm(2) molecule(-1) cm(-1) over the spectral region 200 2000 cm(-1). The radiative efficiency is calculated to be 0.21 Wm(-2) ppbv(-1) and the 100 year GWP| relative to carbon dioxide| is 17200. These values are approximately 60% higher than previously published estimates| primarily reflecting the higher infrared absorption cross-sections reported here. 7586,2006,2,4,River discharge changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Annual mean discharge data of the five large rivers in the exorheic region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1956 to 2000 are analyzed for trends with the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test. The results reveal that though in general no increasing trends exist in the total river discharges| significant regional differences of river discharge exist| reflecting the decreasing trends of discharge in the Yellow River and the Tongtian River (upper Changjiang River)| an increasing trend in Yalong River| and inverted change in the Lancang River and Yarlung Zangbo River. Based on analyses of the seasonal discharge| it is found that climatic change had a significant effect on the seasonal variation of river discharge in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In spring (from March to May) the discharge increased significantly| especially in the source area of the Yellow River. Together with the analyses on data of the mean temperature in the Northern Hemisphere and climatic data within the river basins| the relationship between discharges and mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere is explored| which indicates that there is no increase in the stream discharge in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with global warming. It is probably the increasing evaporation| caused by rising temperature that offsets the hydrological effect of increasing precipitation. 7237,2006,4,4,Robust increases in midlatitude static stability in simulations of global warming,We examine changes in the static stability of the midlatitude troposphere in simulations of global warming using 21 coupled climate models in the AR4 archive. The dry static stability within the midlatitudes exhibits a robust increase in the simulations| with upper tropospheric warming outpacing the lower troposphere by approximately 2 K. The increase in stability is especially evident in the summer season| and is more prominent in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern. The moist static stability is largely unchanged| on the other hand| showing that moist convection plays a dominant role in determining the temperature structure of the midlatitudes. We compare bulk measures of the stability with changes in meridional gradients for each individual model simulation| and find that moist theories work well in predicting the stability with the primary exception of the Northern Hemisphere summer| where enhanced surface warming over land reduces the increase in stability. 7306,2006,4,3,Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming,Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| this study examines some aspects of the changes in the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models. These responses include the decrease in convective mass fluxes| the increase in horizontal moisture transport| the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance| and the decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics. A surprising finding is that a robust decrease in extratropical sensible heat transport is found only in the equilibrium climate response| as estimated in slab ocean responses to the doubling of CO(2)| and not in transient climate change scenarios. All of these robust responses are consequences of the increase in lower-tropospheric water vapor. 7252,2006,2,4,Role of global warming on the statistics of record-breaking temperatures,We theoretically study the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using both Monte Carlo simulations and 126 years of available data from the city of Philadelphia. Using extreme statistics| we derive the number and the magnitude of record temperature events| based on the observed Gaussian daily temperature distribution in Philadelphia| as a function of the number of years of observation. We then consider the case of global warming| where the mean temperature systematically increases with time. Over the 126-year time range of observations| we argue that the current warming rate is insufficient to measurably influence the frequency of record temperature events| a conclusion that is supported by numerical simulations and by the Philadelphia data. We also study the role of correlations between temperatures on successive days and find that they do not affect the frequency or magnitude of record temperature events. 1731,2006,2,2,Root exudation (net efflux of amino acids) may increase rhizodeposition under elevated CO2,Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) can lead to global climate change and theoretically could enhance carbon (C) deposition in soil| but data on this complex issue are contradictory. One approach for clarifying the diverse forces influencing plant-derived C in the rhizosphere involves defining how elevated [CO2] alters the fundamental process of C transfer from plant roots to the soil. We examine here how a step increase in [CO2] affects the innate influx and efflux components of root exudation in axenic plants| as one foundation for understanding how climate change may affect rhizodeposition. Increasing [CO2] from 425 to 850 mu mol mol(-1) during short-term trials enhanced shoot and root dry weight (P < 0.01) of annual rye grass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.) and medic (Medicago truncatula L.) but had no effect on growth of maize (Zea mays L.). Root amino-acid flux in the same plants changed only in maize| which increased the efflux rate (nmol g root fresh weight(-1) h(-1)) of six amino acids (arginine| alanine| proline| tyrosine| lysine and leucine) significantly (P < 0.05) under elevated [CO2]. None of the three plant species altered the steady-state concentration of 16 amino acids released into a hydroponic solution with changing [CO2]| apparently because amino-acid influx rates| measured at 2.5 mu M| consistently exceeded efflux rates. Indeed| plants recovered amino acids at rates 94-374% higher than they were lost from roots regardless of [CO2]. These results indicate that| in theory| any effect of [CO2] doubling on amino-acid efflux can be offset by innately higher rates of influx. In practice| however| higher rates of amino-acid cycling (i.e.| efflux+influx) for each root segment (in C-4 maize) or from more root tissue (in the two C-3 species) should increase root exudation by plants exposed to elevated [CO2] as additional amino acids would be adsorbed to soil particles or be taken up by soil microorganisms. 7291,2006,2,4,Runoff sensitivity to climate changes in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region (LRGR): An example of the Longchuan Basin in the Upper Yangtze,The sensitivity of runoff to the climate change in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region (LRGR) in southwest China was investigated with a case study in the Longchuan Basin of the upper Yangtze River| where the climate change is more complex due to the influences from both global warming and local topography. Non-updating artificial neural networks were calibrated and validated at the baseline condition and were used to predict the response of runoff under 25 hypothetical climate scenarios| which were generated by adjusting the baseline temperature by -1| 0| 1| 2 and 3 degrees C and by scaling rainfall by 0%| +/-+/- 10% and +/- 20%. The results indicated that runoff is more sensitive to the increase in rainfall. The annual and seasonal runoff changes were determined by the interaction between temperature and rainfall. At seasonal scale| the direction of change in runoff is more determined by temperature in winter and spring; whereas it is more determined by rainfall in summer and autumn. The LRGR in southwest China may experience a higher frequency of floods in the wet season and more serious droughts in the dry season| if a wetter summer and warmer winter is the trend of future climate change| as predicted by many GCMs. 1685,2006,2,2,Scaling the metabolic balance of the oceans,Oceanic communities are sources or sinks of CO2| depending on the balance between primary production and community respiration. The prediction of how global climate change will modify this metabolic balance of the oceans is limited by the lack of a comprehensive underlying theory. Here| we show that the balance between production and respiration is profoundly affected by environmental temperature. We extend the general metabolic theory of ecology to the production and respiration of oceanic communities and show that ecosystem rates can be reliably scaled from theoretical knowledge of organism physiology and measurement of population abundance. Our theory predicts that the differential temperature-dependence of respiration and photosynthesis at the organism level determines the response of the metabolic balance of the epipelagic ocean to changes in ambient temperature| a prediction that we support with empirical data over the global ocean. Furthermore| our model predicts that there will be a negative feedback of ocean communities to climate warming because they will capture less CO2 with a future increase in ocean temperature. This feedback of marine biota will further aggravate the anthropogenic effects on global warming. 1688,2006,2,4,Screening for high-temperature tolerant cotton cultivars by testing in vitro pollen germination| pollen tube growth and boll retention,With radical global climate change and global warming| high temperature stress has become one of major factors exerting a major influence on crop production. In the cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.)-growing areas of China| especially in the Yangtze River valley| unexpected periodic episodes of extreme heat stress usually occur in July and August| the peak time of cotton flowering and boll loading| resulting in lower boll set and lint yield. Breeding programs for screening high temperature-tolerant cotton germplasm and cultivars are urgent in order to stabilize yield in the current and future warmer weather conditions. In the present study| 14 cotton cultivars were quantified for in vitro pollen germination and pollen tube growth in response to temperatures ranging from 10 to 50 degrees C at 5 degrees C intervals. Different cotton genotypes varied in their in vitro pollen germination and pollen tube length responses to the different temperatures. Maximum pollen germination and pollen tube length ranged from 25.2% to 56.2% and from 414 to 682 mu m| respectively. The average cardinal temperatures (T-min| T-opt| and T-max) also varied among the 14 cultivars and were 11.8| 27.3| and 42.7 degrees C for pollen germination and 11.8| 27.8| and 44.1 degrees C for maximum pollen tube length. Variations in boll retention and boll numbers per plant in field experiments were found for the 14 cotton cultivars and the boll retention and boll retained per plant on 20 August varied considerably in different years according to weather conditions. Boll retention on 20 August was highly correlated with maximum pollen germination (R-2= 0.84) and pollen tube length (R-2=0.64). A screening method based on principle component analysis of the combination of pollen characteristics in an in vitro experiment and boll retention testing in the field environment was used in the present study and| as a result| the 14 cotton cultivars could be classified as tolerant| moderately tolerant| moderately susceptible and susceptible to high temperature. 7593,2006,3,4,Screening of pure fluids as alternative refrigerants,Hydrofluorocarbons are now well established as refrigerants because of their zero ozone depletion potential. Since they have a high global warming potential| other alternatives as| e.g. fluorinated ethers or cyclic hydrocarbons are considered as next-generation refrigerants. Screening of alternative refrigerants is difficult because mostly no or only few data are available. To evaluate| e.g. the cycle performance| the thermodynamic properties of the refrigerants must be known and described accurately by an equation of state. Here| the physically based BACKONE equations are used to describe alternative refrigerants| such as natural refrigerants| hydrofluorocarbons| fluorinated cyclic hydrocarbons| and fluorinated ethers. BACKONE needs only a few substance specific parameters to describe thermodynamic properties with high accuracy. Thus| even alternative refrigerants| with very few available experimental data can be described. Calculations with BACKONE of the performance of many refrigerants show that some hydrocarbons and fluorinated ethers are a good alternative. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 1637,2006,2,4,Seasonal resource availability and use by an endangered tropical mycophagous marsupial,This study highlights the importance of considering how seasonality of rainfall affects availability of resources and consequently species distributions within tropical ecosystems. The endangered northern bettong| Bettongia tropica Wakefield is thought to be restricted to habitats where seasonal availability of hypogeous fungi| their principal food resource| remains high. To test this hypothesis fungal abundance was quantified in the early wet| late wet| early dry and late dry seasons within known bettong habitat. A relationship was found between precipitation and fungal availability| with the abundance of hypogeous fungi being significantly lower in the late dry season. Fungal availability correlated strongly with the seasonal rainfall pattern determined from 74-year monthly means. This contrasts with a previous study where mycophagy| measured by faecal analysis| remained high across seasons presumably because of aseasonal rainfall during that study period. Alloteropsis semialata R.Br. (cockatoo grass) use by bettongs increased significantly during the period of low fungal availability. This suggests that the importance of cockatoo grass as an alternative food resource during annual and extended dry periods has previously been underestimated. With the frequency and intensity of drought expected to increase with global climate change| these findings have significant implications for bettong management. The important and possibly equivalent dependence of B. tropica on both hypogeous fungi and A. semialata helps to explain their habitat preference and identifies this species as a true ecotonal specialist. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1601,2006,4,4,Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate,The dynamical basis for seasonal to decadal climate predictions and predictability over South America is reviewed. It is shown that| while global tropical SSTs affect both predictability and predictions over South America| the current lack of SST predictability over the tropical Atlantic represents a limiting factor to seasonal climate predictions over some parts of the continent. The model's skill varies with the continental region: the highest skill is found in the "Nordeste" region and the lowest skill over southeastern Brazil. It is also suggested that current two-tier approaches to predict seasonal climate variations might represent a major limitation to forecast coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena like the South Atlantic convergence zone. Also discussed are the possible effects of global climate change on regional predictability of seasonal climate. 7649,2006,2,4,Secular increase of seasonal predictability for the 20th century,Seasonal predictability of global surface air temperature for the 100 years of 20th century is examined using the Climate of the 20th Century international project ( C20C) AGCM experiment. The C20C experiments reproduce reasonably well the observed warming trend over the globe. The perfect model concept| one simulation being considered as observation| is utilized to examine the changes of seasonal mean predictability for the last 100 years. The global pattern correlations of seasonal mean temperature show clearly the seasonal mean predictability being increased since 1920s. The analysis of the ensemble mean and deviation also shows that the signal to noise ratio is much increased for the recent 30 years| particularly in the tropical and subtropical Pacific. The increase of the seasonal predictability is found to be related to the enhancement of SST variability over the tropical Pacific| which appears to be related to the global warming. 7609,2006,4,2,Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models,[ 1] Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models ( coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together| the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However| 11 modern coupled GCMs| including three that do not employ flux adjustments| behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations ( with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends| which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more| but trends in some regions| most notably the Arctic| differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups'' of models| made possible by increasing computer power| are one reason for the improvements this paper documents. 7685,2006,2,4,Sensitivity of ancient Lake Ohrid to local anthropogenic impacts and global warming,Human impacts on the few ancient lakes of the world must be assessed| as any change can lead to an irreversible loss of endemic communities. In such an assessment| the sensitivity of Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania; surface area A = 358 km(2)| volume V = 55 km(3)| > 200 endemic species) to three major human impacts-water abstraction| eutrophication| and global warming-is evaluated. It is shown that ongoing eutrophication presents the major threat to this unique lake system| even under the conservative assumption of an increase in phosphorus (P) concentration from the current 4.5 to a potential future 9 mg P m(-3). Eutrophication would lead to a significant reduction in light penetration| which is a prerequisite for endemic| deep living plankton communities. Moreover| a P increase to 9 mg P m(-3) would create deep water anoxia through elevated oxygen consumption and increase in the water column stability due to more mineralization of organic material. Such anoxic conditions would severely threaten the endemic bottom fauna. The trend toward anoxia is further amplified by the predicted global warming of 0.04 degrees C yr(-1)| which significantly reduces the frequency of complete seasonal deep convective mixing compared to the current warming of 0.006 degrees C yr(-1). This reduction in deep water exchange is triggered by the warming process rather than by overall higher temperatures in the lake. In contrast| deep convective mixing would be even more frequent than today under a higher temperature equilibrium| as a result of the temperature dependence of the thermal expansivity of water. Although water abstraction may change local habitats| e.g.| karst spring areas| its effects on overall lake properties was shown to be of minor importance. 7339,2006,4,4,Sensitivity of global warming to the pattern of tropical ocean warming,The current generations of climate models are in substantial disagreement as to the projected patterns of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Tropics over the next several decades. We show that the spatial patterns of tropical ocean temperature trends have a strong influence on global mean temperature and precipitation and on global mean radiative forcing. We identify the SST patterns with the greatest influence on the global mean climate and find very different| and often opposing| sensitivities to SST changes in the tropical Indian and West Pacific Oceans. Our work stresses the need to reduce climate model biases in these sensitive regions| as they not only affect the regional climates of the nearby densely populated continents| but also have a disproportionately large effect on the global climate. 7493,2006,3,3,Setting priorities within product-oriented environmental policy - The Danish perspectives,To focus Danish product-oriented environmental policy| a study applying extended input-output analysis has been performed| identifying the most important product groups from an environmental perspective. The environmental impacts are analyzed from three different perspectives-the supply perspective| the consumption perspective| and the process perspective-cliffering primarily in their system delimitation. The top ten environmentally most important product groups (out of 138 industry products and 98 final consumption groups) are listed for each of the three perspectives| using both total environmental impact and environmental impact intensity as ranking principles. The study covers all substances that contribute significantly to the environmental impact categories of global warming| ozone depletion| acidification| nutrient enrichment| photochemical ozone formation| ecotoxicity human toxicity| and nature occupation. The differences in results between the three perspectives are elaborated and their policy relevance discussed. The top ten product groups account for a surprisingly large share of the total environmental impact of Danish production and consumption (up to 45%| depending upon the perspective). This implies that product-oriented environmental policy may achieve large improvements by focusing on a rather small number of product groups. Both imported products and products produced for export in general cause more environmental impact than products produced in Denmark for the Danish market. Especially noticeable are the export of meat and ship transport. This leads to the recommendation to include specific policy measures targeting both foreign producers and foreign markets. Because of its relatively large input of labor| public consumption is found to have a much smaller environmental impact intensity than private consumption. The results confirm results of other similar studies| but are more detailed and have lower uncertainty| due to a number of improvements in data and methodology. A short presentation of the methodology is provided as background information| although this is not the main focus of this article. 7239,2006,2,4,Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change,Global warming has led to earlier spring arrival of migratory birds| but the extent of this advancement varies greatly among species| and it remains uncertain to what degree these changes are phenotypically plastic responses or microevolutionary adaptations to changing environmental conditions. We suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation| since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection opposing sexual selection for early migration| which would predict greatest advancement in species with stronger female choice. We test this hypothesis comparatively by investigating the degree of long-term change in spring passage at two ringing stations in northern Europe in relation to a synthetic estimate of the strength of female choice| composed of degree of extra-pair paternity| relative testes size and degree of sexually dichromatic plumage colouration. We found that species with a stronger index of sexual selection have indeed advanced their date of spring passage to a greater extent. This relationship was stronger for the changes in the median passage date of the whole population than for changes in the timing of first-arriving individuals| suggesting that selection has not only acted on protandrous males. These results suggest that sexual selection may have an impact on the responses of organisms to climate change| and knowledge of a species' mating system might help to inform attempts at predicting these. 7552,2006,5,3,Shelf and open-ocean calcareous phytoplankton assemblages across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: Implications for global productivity gradients,Abrupt global warming and profound perturbation of the carbon cycle during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM| ca. 55 Ma) have been linked to a massive release of carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system. Increased phytoplankton productivity has been invoked to cause subsequent CO(2) drawdown| cooling| and environmental recovery. However| interpretations of geochemical and biotic data differ on when and where this increased productivity occurred. Here we present high-resolution nannofossil assemblage data from a shelf section (the U.S. Geological Survey [USGS] drill hole at Wilson Lake| New Jersey) and an open-ocean location (Ocean Drilling Program [ODP] Site 1209| paleoequatorial Pacific). These data combined with published biotic records indicate a transient steepening of shelf-offshelf trophic gradients across the PETM onset and peak| with a decrease in open-ocean productivity coeval with increased nutrient availability in shelf areas. Productivity levels recovered in the open ocean during the later stages of the event| which| coupled with intensified continental weathering rates| may have played an important role in carbon sequestration and CO(2) drawdown. 7462,2006,2,4,Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming,Global warming may shift the properties and dynamics of El Nino. We study the shifts in ENSO couplings in IPCC-AR4 coupled general circulation climate models. First| we compare period| pattern| amplitude and mean state of the Pacific Ocean between the current climate and a high CO2 climate. Next| shifts in ENSO couplings between sea surface temperature (SST)| thermocline depth and wind stress are discussed. Although the mean state shifts| the overall ENSO properties do not change much. Changes in the mean state affect the feedback loop. Higher mean SST provides higher damping through cloud feedback. The shallower thermocline and mixed layer depth increase SST sensitivity to thermocline variability and wind stress. Wind response to SST variability increases where the mean SST has increased the most. However| the higher damping and more stable atmosphere compensate the other changes and the residual change in ENSO properties is relatively small. 1641,2006,4,4,Shifts in plant dominance control carbon-cycle responses to experimental warming and widespread drought,Global climate change is predicted to increase the intensity and frequency of future drought| which in turn may be expected to induce a range of biogeochemical climate feedbacks. A combination of model simulations and observational studies of a recent wide-scale drought| suggested that the drought induced substantial terrestrial ecosystem carbon loss| but hypothesized mechanisms could not be evaluated via comparison to a control. Here| we investigated carbon-cycle responses to climate changes by combining results from a controlled 15-year ecosystem warming experiment in montane grassland with observational data from before and during the recent drought. We found that both experimental warming and real-world drought induced substantial soil carbon loss in our study system| and that the same mechanism| a drying-induced shift in plant species composition and an associated decline in community productivity| provides a common explanation for these declines in soil carbon. 7394,2006,2,4,Short- and long-term population dynamical consequences of asymmetric climate change in black grouse,Temporal asymmetry in patterns of regional climate change may jeopardize the match between the proximate and ultimate cues of the timing of breeding. The consequences on short- and long-term population dynamics and trends as well as the underlying mechanisms are| however| often unknown. Using long-term data from Finland| we demonstrate that black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) have responded to spring warming by advancing both egg-laying and hatching. However| early summer (the time of hatching) has not advanced| and chicks have to face colder post-hatching conditions. Demonstrating that these conditions are critical to post-hatching survival| we show that chicks are increasingly suffering higher mortality because they hatch too early. Consequently| breeding success and population size has severely declined over the past four decades. Finally| we modelled the impact of this particular climate change scenario on population dynamics and show that the mismatch can further explain the observed collapse of cyclic fluctuations. Because the evolutionary response of grouse is lagging behind the novel selective pressures| seasonally asymmetric climate change is likely to constitute an important determinant of future short- and long-term changes in the dynamics of black grouse populations. 1744,2006,3,3,Significance of the nuclear fuel cycle in the 21st century,The combined effects of increasing industrialization around the world| the threat of global climate change| and decreasing availability of "clean" fossil fuels will make the development of alternative energy sources more important in the coming decades. For fission-based nuclear power to contribute significantly to future energy supplies| it will be essential to maintain the improvements that have been made in plant operational efficiency| to license geological repositories for waste disposal| and to consider again the issue of recycling of spent nuclear fuels to recover its fuel value and to reduce the long-term radiotoxicity of the wastes. In this chapter| we present an overview of the nuclear fuel cycle from spent fuel recycling through the repository performance in the context of its importance to energy production in the 21(st) Century. (c) 2006 American Chemical Society 7475,2006,2,4,Simulated effects of altered spillway releases on thermal structure and kokanee growth in a Colorado reservoir,In-reservoir thermal and ecological effects of releasing some flows over the surface spillway at Blue Mesa Reservoir| Colorado| rather than routing all releases through the hypolimnetic outlet were evaluated using a calibrated and validated one-dimensional thermal model (CE-THERM) with a set of ecological models. Thermal model output indicated that surface water temperatures were influenced primarily by atmospheric conditions| but the release of warmer water over the spillway resulted in a thinner epilimnion and cooler metalimnetic water temperatures. Ecological model predictions indicated that spillway releases and associated temperatures resulted in lower growth rates for young-of-year (YOY) kokanee salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the reservoir by up to 9 percent when compared with growth rates under baseline operations with no releases over the spillway. Kokanee growth rates were reduced under spillway release scenarios because lower temperatures not only affected metabolic rates| but limited the productivity of the zooplankton as well. Thus| altering the release regime with spillway discharges could have deleterious effects on Blue Mesa's YOY kokanee. However| in other reservoirs| distributing discharges among different elevations may provide managers with a mechanism to regulate temperatures to benefit species of concern that are facing challenges imposed by environmental conditions such as global warming. 7439,2006,2,3,Simulated sequestration of anthropogenic carbon dioxide at a deep-sea site: Effects on nematode abundance and biovolume,One proposal for ameliorating global warming is to sequester large amounts of carbon dioxide in the deep ocean| but the environmental consequences of sequestration for sediment-dwelling animals are poorly known. In a previous publication| we reported that similar to 80% of benthic copepods were killed in an experimental release of CO(2) off northern California at 3262 m. The effects of this release on nematodes are reported here. We examined samples of nematodes taken inside two 'corrals' into which CO(2) was directly injected (providing an extreme endpoint for CO(2) exposure) and taken near to and far from this CO(2) source. After 30 days| pore-water pH was unchanged (similar to 7.8) at the sediment-water interface far (similar to 40 m) from corrals| but pH profiles were reduced by similar to 0.75 near (similar to 2m) corrals. Corral pH was highly acidic (5.4 in a measurement from a subsequent experiment). Fifty randomly selected nematodes from each of four vertical layers from the 14 cores were photographed. They were assigned to a tail group (based on morphology)| and individual biovolume was estimated from measurements of body length and width. Although nematode abundance (expressed as total nematodes and by tail group) was not affected| length| width| and individual biovolume significantly differed between near and far samples. Median nematode biovolume examined across tail group and core layer increased by similar to 48% inside and near corrals. Differences between near and corral samples were always less than differences between near and far samples. However| nematode length:width ratio did not differ between near and far| and the shapes of length| width| and biovolume frequency distributions were similar in all samples. We postulate that the nematode community throughout the upper 3 cm suffered a high rate of mortality after exposure to CO(2)| and that nematodes were larger because postmortem expansions in body length and width occurred. Decomposition rates were probably low and corpses did not disintegrate in 30 days. The observable effects of a reduction in pH to about 7.0 after 30 days were as great as an extreme pH reduction (5.4)| suggesting that 'moderate' CO(2) exposure| compared to the range of exposures possible following CO(2) release| causes high mortality rates in the two most abundant sediment-dwelling metazoans (nematodes and copepods). (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7577,2006,3,3,Simulated sequestration of industrial carbon dioxide at a deep-sea site: Effects on species of harpacticoid copepods,One proposal for alleviating global warming is to sequester large amounts of industrial carbon dioxide on the deep-sea floor| but the environmental consequences of sequestration for the animals living in the sediment are poorly known. In an earlier publication| we reported that| during an experimental sequestration off central California (36.378 degrees N| 122.676 degrees NN 3262 m depth)| most individuals of our target taxon (the harpacticoid copepods) were killed| but similar to 20% survived. Because knowledge of which species survived and how they did so could clarify the effects of sequestration on the fauna| we have now identified the individuals from that experiment to species. Although most were adversely affected| species differed significantly in the degree of their susceptibility. Unexpectedly| six species showed no effect and may be resistant. The hypothesis that harpacticoids could escape the effects of carbon dioxide-rich seawater by moving deeper into the seabed was not supported. Exposure to carbon dioxide-rich seawater created partially defaunated areas| but we found no evidence that disturbance-exploiting harpacticoid species invaded during the recovery of the affected area. Because the environmental effects of the carbon dioxide (e.g. unusually acidic pore water) were still present| however| the opportunity for invasion might not yet have occurred. Differences among species in susceptibility increase the complexity of the effects of carbon dioxide sequestration on the deep-sea fauna. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7604,2006,3,3,Simulating soil C dynamics with EPIC: Model description and testing against long-term data,Soil carbon sequestration (SCS) has emerged as a technology with significant potential to help stabilize atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and thus reduce the threat of global warming. Methods and models are needed to evaluate and recommend SCS practices based on their effects on carbon dynamics and environmental quality. Environment Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) is a widely used and tested model for simulating many agroecosystem processes including plant growth| crop yield| tillage| wind and water erosion| runoff| soil density| and leaching. Here we describe new C and N modules developed in EPIC built on concepts from the Century model to connect the simulation of soil C dynamics to crop management| tillage methods| and erosion processes. The added C and N routines interact directly with soil moisture| temperature| erosion| tillage| soil density| leaching| and translocation functions in EPIC. Equations were also added to describe the effects of soil texture on soil C stabilization. Lignin concentration is modeled as a sigmoidal function of plant age. EPIC was tested against data from a conservation reserve program (CRP) 6-year experiment at five sites in three U.S. Great Plains states and a 61-year long-term agronomic experiment near Breton| Canada. Mean square deviations (MSD) calculated for CRP sites were less than 0.01 (kg C m(-2))(2)| except for one site where it reached 0.025 (kg C m(-2))(2). MSD values in the 61-year experiment ranged between 0.047 and 0.077 (kg C m(-2))(2). The version of the EPIC model presented and tested here contains the necessary algorithms to simulate SCS and improve understanding of the interactions among soil erosion| C dynamics| and tillage. A strength of the model as tested is its ability to explain the variability in crop production| C inputs and SOC and N cycling over a wide range of soil| cropping and climatic conditions over periods from 6 to 61 years. For example| at the Breton site over 61 years| EPIC accounted for 69% of the variability in grain yields| 89% of the variability in C inputs and 91% of the variability in SOC content in the top 15 cm. Continued development is needed in understanding why it overpredicts at low SOC and underpredicts at high SOC. Possibilities now exist to connect the C and N cycling parts of EPIC to algorithms to describe denitrification as driven by C metabolism and oxygen availability. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7341,2006,2,4,Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat,Caribou are an integral component of high-latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen| a preferred winter forage| in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency| extent| and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e.| less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat| relative to that currently available| in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5-fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce-lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly| simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure| compared to that which currently exists; with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics. 7601,2006,3,2,Simulation of CO2 recovery system from flue gas by honeycomb type adsorbent II - (Optimization of CO2 recovery system and proposal of actual plant),Carbon dioxide (CO2) included in the exhaust gas from heat power plants is the chief cause of global warming. In the present study| the numerical simulations of CO2 recovery systems were conducted in order to decide the optimal operation conditions for actual plant. Thermal swing adsorption (TSA) method was adapted to the present system| and the CO2 is recovered by the rotary adsorption towers filled with honeycomb type adsorbent. The following optimal operation conditions for the actual plant (rotor diameter: 14.5 m| bed height: 0.5 m| flow rate of flue gas: 14000 m(3) (STP) . h(-1)) were obtained from our simulations. 1. Temperature of heating gas: 423 K 2. Flow rate of desorption gas: 80000 m(3) (STP) . h(-1) 3. Rotation speed: 3-4 rpm It was also shown that flow rate of flue gas could be raised up to 70000 m(3) (STP) . h(-1) and the value of CO2 concentration in flue gas could be condensed up to 90% by the proposed system. Furthermore| the size of actual plant was estimated from the results noted above. The total height will be about 26 m when 26 rotor absorbent (diameter: 14.5 m| bed height: 0.5 m) were vertically piled up.
7251,2006,2,3,Simulation of long-term future climate changes with the green McGill paleoclimate model: The next glacial inception,The multi-component "green" McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM)| which includes interactive vegetation| is used to simulate the next glacial inception under orbital and prescribed atmospheric CO(2) forcing. This intermediate complexity model is first run for short-term periods with an increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentration; the model's response is in general agreement with the results of GCMs for CO(2) doubling. The green MPM is then used to derive projections of the climate for the next 100 kyr. Under a constant CO(2) level| the model produces three types of evolution for the ice volume: an imminent glacial inception (low CO(2) levels)| a glacial inception in 50 kyr (CO(2) levels of 280 or 290 ppm)| or no glacial inception during the next 100 kyr (CO(2) levels of 300 ppm and higher). This high sensitivity to the CO(2) level is due to the exceptionally weak future variations of the summer insolation at high northern latitudes. The changes in vegetation re-inforce the buildup of ice sheets after glacial inception. Finally| if an initial global warming episode of finite duration is included| after which the atmospheric CO(2) level is assumed to stabilize at 280| 290 or 300 ppm| the impact of this warming is seen only in the first 5 kyr of the run; after this time the response is insensitive to the early warming perturbation. 7618,2006,3,3,Simulation of nitrous oxide emissions from wheat-cropped soils using CERES,Estimation of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from arable soils| in relation to crop fertilization| is essential to devise strategies to mitigate the impact of agriculture on global warming. This paper presents the development and test of a N2O model resulting from the linkage of a dynamic soil-crop simulation model (CERES) with two sub-models of N2O production and reduction in soils. These sub-models (NOE and NGAS) account for both the nitrification and denitrification pathways. The resulting models (CERES NOE and CERES-NGAS) were tested against experimental data collected on three contrasting wheat-cropped soils representative of the Beauce agricultural region in France. Although the input variables for the N2O modules were correctly simulated| CERES-NGAS was over-responsive to soil water content in a Haplic Calcisol| and strongly over-estimated the N2O fluxes as a result. On the other hand| CERES-NOE predicted correct mean N2O emission levels for all sites| but failed to simulate the peak fluxes observed in the weeks following fertilizer application in the most N2O-productive soil. Both models achieved root mean squared errors in the 23-26 g N-N2O ha(-1) day(-1) range| significantly higher than the average experimental error on the measurements. On the other hand| their mean deviations were acceptable| being lower than 2.2 g N-N2O ha(-1) day(-1)| compared with a mean observed flux of 7.9 g N-N2O ha(-1) day(-1). Overall| the response of CERES-NOE to soil type was more accurate| but this came at the cost of costly| site-specific characterization on the soils' biological properties. The development of pedo-transfer functions to infer these parameters from basic soil characteristics appears as a pre-requisite for the use of CERES-NOE on a wider scale. 7605,2006,3,4,SiO2 and Si3N4 etch mechanisms in NF3/hydrocarbon plasma,Low-pressure inductive plasma was used to study SiO2 and Si3N4 etching with NF3/hydrocarbon chemistry. NF3 and a hydrocarbon were used so that fluorine and carbon could be supplied from feed gases other than global warming fluorocarbons. Etch rates of SiO2 are less than the Si3N4 etch rates over a wide range of conditions. With 50 W of wafer power| the SiO2 etch rate was of the order of 25 nm min(-1) while the Si3N4 etch rate was of the order of 50 nm min(-1). Similarly to a fluorocarbon chemistry| the etch process yields a very thin carbon-based steady-state film whose characteristics were determined with ex situ x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). From mass spectrometry and XPS| CHxF| CF2 and CF3 were produced but in small concentrations compared with CHx and CN. Comparisons of normalized F Is spectra of nitride and oxide show that relative concentrations of CF2 and CF3 on SiO2 are much lower than the concentrations on Si3N4. It appears that SiO2 preferentially reacts with CF2 and CF3 only but not with C-C or CH|F. Differences in the abilities of SiO2 and Si3N4 to react with C-C structures contributed to higher etch rates of Si3N4. 1630,2006,4,4,Soil carbon turnover in the McMurdo Dry Valleys| Antarctica,Terrestrial ecosystems of the Antarctic Dry Valleys are among the most inhospitable soil environments on Earth due to climate and substrate limitations over biota. These ecosystems present a challenge to understanding controls over carbon (C) cycling because likely sources of organic matter are 10(2)-10(4) yrs old and in situ soil respiration is typically less than 1.0 mu mol CO(2) m(-2) s(-1). In this paper we describe an analytical approach to characterize kinetic pools of labile and recalcitrant soil C| and estimate C turnover in dry valley soils based upon these descriptions. Rate parameters for C turnover were derived from laboratory incubations conducted under a range of soil moistures and temperatures. We developed a C flux and reservoir model using these rate parameters along with published estimates of internal C transformations in soil microbial ecosystems| and a previously described primary production (NPP) model for Antarctic endolithic communities. We found that decomposition in 120 d incubations was well described by double-exponential rate kinetics| and that temperature| moisture and substrate availability significantly influenced observed rates of soil respiration. Simulations of soil C cycling based upon these parameters produced initially high rates of soil respiration following inputs of external organic matter| with mean residence times for C of 10-60 yrs. Soil organic C content equilibrated at 44-140% of observed levels within 1000 yrs. Simulations of equilibrium C were sensitive to NPP| microbial efficiency (Y)| and the distribution of C inputs into labile and passive pools| indicating that more thorough investigation of microbial influence over the C cycle in dry valley soils is necessary. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1725,2006,3,3,Soil organic carbon changes in diversified rotations of the western corn belt,dSequestration and storage of carbon (C) by agricultural soils has been cited as one potential part of the solution to soil degradation and global climate change. However| C sequestration in soils is a slow and dynamic process. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of crop rotation and N fertilizer management on soil organic C (SOC) levels at several points in time during 18 yr of a long-term study in the Western Corn Belt. Seven cropping systems (three monoculture| two 2-yr| and two 4-yr rotations) with three levels of N fertilizer were compared. Soil samples were taken in the spring in 1984| 1992| 1998| and 2002 to a depth of 30 cm in 0- to 7.5-| 7.5- to 15-| and 15- to 30-cm increments. No differences were obtained in SOC levels in 1984 at the beginning of the study. After 8 yr| rotation significantly increased SOC 449 kg ha(-1) across all cropping systems. From 1992 to 2002| SOC levels in the 0- to 7.5-cm depth decreased by 516 kg ha(-1) across all cropping systems. Soil organic C levels in the 7.5- to 15-cm depths in 1992 and 2002 demonstrated similar rotation effects to those in the surface 0- to 7.5-cm| being not significantly affected from 1984 to 1992 but being significantly decreased from 1992 to 2002 (568 kg SOC ha(-1) across all cropping systems). Many of the SOC gains in the surface 30 cm measured during the first 8 yr of the study were lost during the next 10 yr in all but the 4-yr cropping systems after 18 yr. The loss of SOC in this latter period occurred when depth of tillage was increased by using a tandem disk with larger-diameter disks. These results demonstrate that more than one point-in-time measurement from long-term experiments is necessary to monitor SOC changes when several management variables| such as cropping system and N fertilizer| are being used. They also indicate that apparent small changes in cultural practices| such as in depth of tillage in this experiment| can significantly change SOC dynamics in the soil. Subtle changes in cultural practices (e.g.| tillage depth) can have significant long-term results| but longterm experiments are required to quantify their impact under variable climatic conditions. 7638,2006,3,3,Soil organic carbon content and distribution in a small landscape of Dongguan| South China,Global warming has become an increasing concern| and using soil as a carbon sink to sequester carbon dioxide has attracted much attention in recent years. In this study| soil organic carbon (SOC) content and organic carbon density were estimated based on a. soil survey of a small landscape in Dongguan| South China| with spatial heterogeneity of SOC distribution and the impacts of land-use patterns on soil organic carbon content assessed. Field sampling was carried out based on a 150 m x 150 m grid system overlaid on the topographic map of the study area and samples were collected in three 20-cm layers to a depth of 60 cm. Spatial variability in the distribution of SOC was assessed using the Kruskal-Wall's test. Results showed that SOC in the topsoil layer (0-20 cm) was not much higher or even lower in some sites than the underlying layers| and except for the two sites covered with natural woodland| it did not exhibit a pronounced vertical gradient. The difference in both horizontal and vertical distribution of SOC was not statistically significant. However| in the topsoil layer among land-use/land-cover patterns| significant differences (P <= 0.05) in SOC distribution existed| indicating that management practices had great impact on SOC content. SOC storage in the study area to a depth of 20| 40| and 60 cm was estimated as 2.13 x 10(6) kg| 3.46 x 10(6) kg| and 4.61 x 10(6) kg| respectively. 1618,2006,4,4,Soil respiration of forest ecosystems in Japan and global implications,Within terrestrial ecosystems| soil respiration is one of the largest carbon flux components. We discuss the factors controlling soil respiration| while focusing on research conducted at the Takayama Experimental Site. Soil respiration was affected by soil temperature| soil moisture| rainfall events| typhoons| and root respiration. We consider the temporal and spatial variability of soil respiration at the Takayama Experimental Site and review the variability of annual soil respiration in Japanese forests. In the 26 compiled studies| the values of annual soil respiration ranged from 203 to 1|290 g C m(-2) year(-1)| with a mean value of 669 g C m(-2) year(-1) (SD = 264| CV = 40). We note the need for more studies and data synthesis for the accurate prediction of soil respiration and soil carbon dynamics in Japanese forests. Finally| several methods for measuring soil respiration rates are compared and the implications of soil respiration rates for global climate change are discussed. 1753,2006,4,4,Solar activity| global surface air temperature anomaly and Pacific Decadal Oscillation signals observed in urban outskirts tree ring records from Shenyang| China,A tree ring width chronology constructed from multiple samples taken from Chinese pine trees growing in outskirts of Shenyang city in Liaoning Province (China) was studied for the first time in relation to solar activity| global surface air temperature anomalies and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The work revealed an excellent response of urban tree growth to solar activity and global climate change| show as the time variation of the main periodicities in the Sun-Earth indices and its corresponding variation as recorded in tree rings| indicating that these urban Chinese pine are a suitable proxy for Sun-Earth system research in heavy industrial region| like Fuling Mausoleum that is located in Shenyang. Chinese pines show significant synchronous response to solar activity| in the periodic band 5-8 years| 10-16 years and 20-30 years. At the same time| the wave signal of tree growth was also affected| or even amplified by the combined effect of the PDO and GSATA with a short lag time| revealing 6| 13.2| 16.6 and 23.2 years oscillatory modes. At 20-30 years timescales| Chinese pines validated the strongest PDO and GSATA influence signal at 26 years and 20.8 years| respectively| and the 20.8 years fluctuation of GSATA may be the first cause of the tree ring 23.5 years periodic waves. Urban tree ring growth is also more sensitive to low periodicity| especially in the 2-5 years band width. (C) 2006 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7318,2006,2,4,Solar dimming and CO(2) effects on soil moisture trends,[1] Summer soil moisture increased significantly from 1958 to the mid 1990s in Ukraine and Russia. This trend cannot be explained by changes in precipitation and temperature alone. To investigate the possible contribution from solar dimming and upward CO(2) trends| we conducted experiments with a sophisticated land surface model. We demonstrate| by imposing a downward trend in incoming shortwave radiation forcing to mimic the observed dimming| that the observed soil moisture pattern can be well reproduced. On the other hand| the effects of upward CO(2) trends were relatively small for the study period. Our results suggest tropospheric air pollution plays an important role in land water storage at the regional scale| and needs to be addressed accurately to study the effects of global warming on water resources. 7528,2006,4,5,Solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the three-dimensional heliosphere according to meteorite data,Cosmogenic radionuclides with distinctive half-lives from chondritic falls were used as natural detectors of galactic cosmic rays (GCR). A unique series of uniform data was obtained for variations in the integral gradients of GCR with a rigidity of R > 0.5 GV in 1955 - 2000 on heliocentric distances of 1.5 - 3.3 AU and heliographic latitudes between 23 degrees S and 16 degrees N. Correlation analysis was performed for the variations in GCR gradients and variations in solar activity ( number of sunspots| SS| and intensity of the green coronal line| GCL)| the intensity of the interplanetary magnetic field ( IMF)| and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). Distribution and variations of GCR were analyzed in 11-year solar cycles and during a change in 22-year magnetic cycles. The detected dependencies of GCR gradients on the intensity of IMF and HCS inclination provided insight into the differences in the processes of structural transformation of IMF during changes between various phases of solar and magnetic cycles. The investigated relationships lead to the conclusion that a change of secular solar cycles occurred during solar cycle 20; moreover| there is probably still an increase in the 600-year solar cycle| which can be among the major reasons for the observed global warming. 1677,2006,2,4,Some phenomena of the interaction between vegetation and a atmosphere on multiple scales,This article studies the response of the distribution pattern and the physiological characteristics of the ecosystem to the spontaneous precipitation and the interaction between vegetation and the atmosphere on multiple scales in arid and semi-arid zones| based on measured data of the ecological physiological 14 parameters in the Ordas Plateau of northern China. The results show that the vegetation biomass and the energy use efficiency of photosynthesis are especially sensitive to the annual precipitation| strong and complex interactions exist between the vegetation and the atmosphere on multiple scales leading to supernormal thermal heterogeneity of the underlying surface| the strong vortex movement and turbulence. This study can facilitate understanding of the land surface processes and the influences of global climate change as well as human activities on the human environment in the arid and semi-arid zones. It also aids in improving the parameterization schemes of turbulent fluxes of a heterogeneous underlying surface for land surface processes in climate models. 7511,2006,3,4,Source gas dependency of amorphous fluorinated carbon film properties prepared by plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition using C4F8| C4F6| and C5F8 gases,Amorphous fluorinated carbon (a-C:F) films with low-dielectric constant were|prepared using plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) from C4F8 (octafluorocyclobutane) gas| C4F6 (hexafluoro-1|3-butadiene) gas| and C5F8 (octafluorocyclopentene) gas. C4F8 is now mainly used in ultra large scale integrated (ULSI) processes| and C4F6 are expected to be substitutional gases in these processes due to their low global warming potential (GWP). Here| the effect of C-CF bond ratio in a-C:F films on the dielectric constant and thermal stability of the films was studied. In all the films| both the orientational polarization and total dielectric constant decreased with decreasing C-CF bond ratio. High C-CF bond ratio of the film| however| resulted in higher residual film thickness after vacuum annealing. Based on these results| films with low dielectric constant that also have thermal and mechanical stability are difficult to achieve. Stable film properties| such as leakage current| at high temperature is not less related to the C-CF bond ratio than to the parent gas. 1761,2006,2,3,Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) growth and development response to CO2 enrichment under different temperature regimes,The carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration of the global atmosphere has increased during the last decades. This increase is expected to impact the diurnal variation in temperature as well as the occurrence of extreme temperatures. This potentially could affect crop production through changes in growth and development that will ultimately impact yield. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of CO2 and its interaction with temperature on growth and development of soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.| cv. Stonewall). The experiment was conducted in controlled environment chambers at the Georgia Envirotron under three different temperatures and two CO2 regimes. The day/night air temperatures were maintained at 20/15| 25/20 and 30/25 degrees C| while the CO2 levels were maintained at 400 and 700 ppm| resulting in six different treatments. Plants were grown under a constant irradiance of 850 mu moles m(-2) s(-1) and a day length of 12 h; a non-limiting supply of water and mineral nutrients were provided. Five growth analyses were conducted at the critical development stages V4| R3| R5| R6 and R8. No differences in start of flowering were observed as a function of the CO2 level| except for the temperature regime 25/20 degrees C| where flowering for the elevated CO2 level occurred 2 days earlier than for the ambient CO2 level. For aboveground biomass| an increase in the CO2 level caused a more vigorous growth at lower temperatures. An increase in temperature also decreased seed weight| mainly due to a reduction in seed size. For all temperature combinations| final seed weight was higher for the elevated CO| level. This study showed that controlled environment chambers can be excellent facilities for conducting a detailed growth analysis to study the impact on the interactive effect of changes in temperature and CO2 on soybean growth and final yield. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7329,2006,3,4,Space power as a response to global catastrophes,Global catastrophes (events that cause the death of more than a quarter of world population) can credibly be caused through either natural events or human activity. It has been argued that space industrialisation generally offers a response to the risks involved by this class of event and should be the key focus of space infrastructure development. Space power has always been argued as the only energy generating option that avoids depletion of non-renewable resources or pollution induced problems-in particular global warming. However| there are many other potential roles for a solar power capability and the infrastructure associated with it can play in the prevention of global catastrophes and this paper examines this wider application. A very preliminary examination indicates the Solar Power Satellite (SPS) infrastructure can also support strategic defence| Near-Earth Object defence| climate modification| and major resource provision. Combined these may give the capability to deal with all the main threats to human civilisation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7357,2006,2,4,Spatial distribution in a temperate coastal ecosystem of the wild stock of the farmed oyster Crassostrea gigas (Thunberg),The Pacific oyster| Crassostrea gigas| well known throughout the world because of its ability to adapt to a wide range of environmental conditions| was introduced for cultivation into France on a massive scale in the 1970s. With global warming| the reproductive population| confined at the beginning to the south of the French Atlantic coast| became established at more northern latitudes (above 45 degrees 58'N)| and wild C gigas began to colonize coastal areas such as our study site| Bourgneuf Bay (1 degrees-2 degrees W| 46 degrees-47 degrees N)| an oyster-farming site. An original approach| based on orthophotograph analysis and in situ biomass sampling| revealed that| in the northern part of this bay| more than 70% of the total C gigas biomass was composed of wild oysters (i.e. C gigas not bred by oystermen). The analysis of the spatial distribution of wild oysters indicated that 75% of the stock consisted of wild oysters in natural beds (rocky areas) and on low retaining walls of former fisheries. Wild C gigas also colonized oyster-fanning structures with lower biomasses (21% of the stock composed of wild oysters)| but locally they could reach densities of up to 55 kg.m(-1) i.e. 2.5 times the mean biomass of cultivated oysters. The economic and ecological consequences of this colonization by C gigas of an oyster culture site are discussed. Wild oyster seems to be the principal trophic competitor of cultivated oysters in Bourgneuf Bay. This may partly explain the decrease in growth of cultivated oysters observed in this bay during the last decade. Moreover| the trophic and spatial competition exerted by wild oysters may also affect the native biota and| in particular| the honeycomb worm Sabellaria alveolata. The results obtained in this study have led oyster farmers and regional authorities to modify oyster-farming practices and to destroy wild oyster stocks in concession areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All fights reserved. 1757,2006,4,4,Spatial distribution of rainfall trends in Sicily (1921-2000),The feared global climate change could have important effects on various environmental variables including rainfall in many countries around the world. Changes in precipitation regime directly affect water resources management| agriculture| hydrology and ecosystems. For this reason it is important to investigate the changes in the spatial and temporal rainfall pattern in order to improve water management strategies. In this study a non-parametric statistical method (Mann-Kendall rank correlation method) is employed in order to verify the existence of trend in annual| seasonal and monthly rainfall and the distribution of the rainfall during the year. This test is applied to about 250 rain gauge stations in Sicily (Italy) after a series of procedures finalized to the estimation of missing records and to the verification of data consistency. In order to understand the regional pattern of precipitation in Sicily| the detected trends are spatially interpolated using spatial analysis techniques in a GIS environment. The results show the existence of a generalized negative trend for the entire region. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1692,2006,2,4,Spatial variation in anthropic and natural factors regulating the breeding success of the cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) in the SW Iberian Peninsula,The management of the cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) populations| the largest bird of the Western Palaearctic and considered an umbrella species| requires the understanding of the factors limiting the breeding success. As part of a management program| we studied such factors in seven breeding colonies in Extremadura (SW Iberian Peninsula). Using a Geographic Information System and multivariate models| we analyzed the relationship of breeding success with anthropic and natural factors at the nest site and in the foraging area of the adults. We incorporated into the models density-dependent effects between pairs and the spatial autocorrelation of the environmental variables. The differences in breeding success resulted from spatial variations in natural and anthropic conditions| with present human disturbance to nests and future alteration of climate having an expected negative effect at all the sites. Management measures must set calendar restrictions for the immediate environment of the nests| mainly with respect to forestry and hunting activities. A second key element is the protection of the habitats at the nest sites and in their surrounding area| with the aim of there being both wooded areas available for the location of the nest and open environments for the availability of food. The Special Protection Areas showed a partial effectiveness of conservation measures for the species| and the need for future improvement. Lastly| in a scenario of global warming| management policies with respect to nesting habitats will have to be extended to higher altitude zones| actions that should be guided by the study of the selection of potential nesting habitat. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7345,2006,4,2,Spatiotemporal features of global warming,In this paper| we consider the geographical features of a statistically significant stable change in air temper- ature based on a set of global climat models for simu- lating the climate of the 20th and 21st centuries for a given forcing as an increase in the atmospheric concen- tration of greenhouse gases and aerosols. According to the data of observations and model simulations| stable warming has already occurred over a major part of the world. The qualitative similarity of the results of analy- sis of model and observational data on the air and ocean surface temperature is one more argument supporting the anthropogenic nature of the observed global warm- ing.
7635,2006,2,4,Sphagnum modifies climate-change impacts on subarctic vascular bog plants,1. Vascular plant growth forms in northern peatlands differ in their strategies to cope with the harsh climate| low nutrient availability and progressively increasing height of the Sphagnum carpet in which they grow. Climate change may therefore affect growth forms differentially| both directly and through changes in the length growth of Sphagnum mosses. However| the role of mosses as modifiers of climate-change effects on vascular plants has been largely overlooked so far. We investigated the direct and Sphagnum-mediated effects of experimental changes in summer| winter and spring climate on four species of contrasting growth forms (evergreen and deciduous shrubs| graminoid| forb) in a subarctic bog| by studying their biomass and nitrogen losses through leaf litter| and the length growth of the two shrubs. 2. Direct and indirect effects of summer warming differed among the growth forms. Enhanced Sphagnum overgrowth of leaves due to summer warming initially stimulated leaf litter losses of the evergreen shrub Empetrum nigrum. However| changes in its shoot morphology| related to an apparent small increase in its length growth| prevented further effects. A stronger increase in stem growth of the deciduous shrub Betula nana in response to summer warming directly reduced its leaf litter mass| N concentration and N losses. The changed allocation prevented indirect| Sphagnum-mediated effects on its leaf and N dynamics through overgrowth of buds. In contrast| leaf litter mass| N concentrations or N losses of the forb Rubus chamaemorus and the graminoid Calamagrostis lapponica were not affected by summer warming or enhanced Sphagnum growth. 3. Increases in winter snow cover| with or without spring warming| did not affect shrub growth| nor the total shoot leaf litter mass or N dynamics of any of the growth forms. 4. Altogether| summer warming is likely to enhance Sphagnum overgrowth of small shrubs with a limited growth response such as Empetrum. Moreover| increased vertical growth may allow Sphagnum to keep pace with inclined growing| responsive shrubs such as Betula. This might prevent net longer-term positive effects of summer warming on the vascular plant canopy height. However| leaf litter and N losses are more likely to be affected by direct warming effects on shoot morphology and allocation than by Sphagnum growth. The different responses of the growth forms to summer warming suggest that both direct and Sphagnum-mediated climate effects have the potential to change the vascular plant community and N dynamics in peatlands. 1768,2006,2,4,Spreading examination of European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis Hbn.) flight types in the background of Peczely's climate districts,European corn borer (ECB) flight and ecotype spread examinations were made in Hungary with the help of catching results of 44 agricultural Jermy light traps (2004). We wondered about alteration of flight types spread borderline as a function of global climate change. Catching data were evaluated by simple mathematical proportional numbers. Catching results originating from different points of the country were compared with Walter-Lieth climate diagram (2004) and Peczely's Hungarian climate districts. Latter was to reveal correlations of flight types and different climatic districts. The previously published flight alteration tendency of ECB (Keszthelyi 2003| 2004b) continued in 2004. Generation quotients proved this process too. Average generation quotient of populations in South-eastem Hungary was 6| and the top of the same rate in this district was 10|84. The earlier observed ||one peak flight" type was replaced by|two peaks flight" type in North-western Hungary (average generation quotient of this district: 2|5). The IRIN (relative individual number per one day) shows regressive tendency from South-eastem Hungary to North-westem Hungary (1RIN of 1.district: 6|99; 1RIN of 4.district: 4|69; 1RIN of 10.district: 2|78)| but unequivocal conclusions cannot be drawn from these values for places of ecotypes. There is no unambiguous connection between Peczely's Hungarian climate districts and spread of ECB flight types as proved by the statistical examinations. 7405,2006,2,4,Spring phenophases in recent decades over eastern China and its possible link to climate changes,In light of the observed climate changes in recent decades over eastern China| we studied the changes in spring phenophases of woody plants observed at 16-stations during 1963-1996| and explored the possible link between the spring phenophases changes and climate changes before the phenophase onset. It is found that| in the region north of 33 degrees N (including Northeast| North China and the lower reaches of the Huaihe River)| the phenophase advanced 1.1-4.3 days per decade for early spring and 1.4-5.4 days per decade for late spring| but in the eastern part of the southwest China it was dealyed by 2.9-6.9 days per decade in early spring and 2.4-6.2 days per decade in late spring. One outstanding feature is identified in Guangzhou in south China| where significant advance of 7.5 days per decade in early spring and delay of 4.6 days per decade in late spring were detected. Statistically siginficant correlation was found between the changes of spring phenophase and the temperatures of one or several months before the phenophase onset. The relationship between the trend of phenophase change and temperature change was highly non-linear (more sensitivity to cooling than to warming) and reached an asymptote 0.5 degrees C per decade| which may have implication in the responses of the ecosystem in a future global warming scenario. In addition| we also examined the link between the spring phenophase| and length and mean temperature of the growing season| and the analyses suggested that they were highly correlated as well. 7607,2006,5,4,Stable isotope chemistry of fossil bone as a new paleoclimate indicator,During fossilization| bone is thought to recrystallize and alter chemically on timescales of kyr to a few tens of kyr| i.e.| similar to the timescale for formation of soils. Therefore| C- and O-isotope compositions of bone apatite should correlate with trends in soil water composition and aridity| and serve as paleoclimate indicators. This hypothesis was tested by analyzing C- and O-isotope compositions of the CO3 component of fossil bone apatite from mid-Oligocene through late Pleistocene units in Oregon and western Idaho| including the John Day (19.4-30.0 Ma)| Mascall (15.2-15.8 Ma)| and Rattlesnake (7.2-7.8 Ma) Formations| whose paleosol sequences have been studied in detail| and the Juntura (10-11 Ma)| Hagerman (3.2 Ma)| and Fossil Lake ( < 23-650 ka) fossil localities. Tooth enamel 6180 values provide a baseline of meteoric water compositions. Stable isotope compositions of bone CO3 do change in response to broad climatic trends| but show poor correlation with compositions of corresponding paleosol CO3 at specific horizons. Instead| compositional deviations between bone and paleosol CO3 correlate with compositional deviations with the next higher paleosol; this suggests that the timescale for fossilization exceeds one paleosol cycle. Based on stratigraphic evidence and simple alteration models| fossilization timescales are estimated at 20-50 kyr| indicating that bone CO3 will prove most useful for sequences spanning > 100 kyr. C-isotopes show negative and strong positive deviations during wet and dry climates respectively| and short-term trends correspond well with changes in aridity within the Mascall and Rattlesnake Formations| as inferred from paleosols. A proposed correction to 6180 values based on delta(13)C anomalies implies a small| similar to 1.5 parts per thousand increase in meteoric water delta(18)O during the late Oligocene global warming event| consistent with a minimum temperature increase of similar to 4 degrees C. A strong inferred decrease in delta(18)O of 4-5 parts per thousand after 7 Ma closely parallels compositional changes in tooth enamel| and reflects a doubling in the height of the Cascade Range. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 7591,2006,3,3,State of energy consumption and CO2 emission in Bangladesh,Carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the most important gases in the atmosphere| and is necessary for sustaining life on Earth. It is also considered to be a major greenhouse gas contributing to global warming and climate change. In this article| energy consumption in Bangladesh is analyzed and estimates are made of CO2 emission from combustion of fossil fuel (coal| gas| petroleum products) for the period 1977 to 1995. International Panel for Climate Change guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories were used in estimating CO2 emission. An analysis of energy data shows that the consumption of fossil fuels in Bangladesh is growing by more than 5% per year. The proportion of natural gas in total energy consumption is increasing| while that of petroleum products and coal is decreasing. The estimated total CO2 release from all primary fossil fuels used in Bangladesh amounted to 5072 Gigagram (Gg) in 1977| and 14 423 Gg in 1995. The total amounts of CO2 released from petroleum products natural gas| and coal in the period 1977-1995 were 83 026 Gg (50% of CO2 emission)| 72 541 Gg (44% of CO2 emission)| and 9545 Gg (6% CO2 emission)| respectively. A trend in CO2 emission with projections to 2070 is generated. In 2070| total estimated CO2 emission will be 293 260 Gg with a current growth rate of 6.34% y(-1). CO2 emission from fossil fuels is increasing. Petroleum products contribute the majority of CO2 emission load| and although the use of natural gas is increasing rapidly| its contribution to CO2 emission is less than that of petroleum products. The use of coal as well as CO2 emission from coal is expected to gradually decrease. 7238,2006,2,2,Steady decline of east Asian monsoon winds| 1969-2000: Evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed,It is commonly believed that greenhouse-gas-induced global warming can weaken the east Asian winter monsoon but strengthen the summer monsoon| because of stronger warming over high-latitude land as compared to low-latitude oceans. In this study| we show that the surface wind speed associated with the east Asian monsoon has significantly weakened in both winter and summer in the recent three decades. From 1969 to 2000| the annual mean wind speed over China has decreased steadily by 28%| and the prevalence of windy days (daily mean wind speed > 5 m/s) has decreased by 58%. The temperature trends during this period have not been uniform. Significant winter warming in northern China may explain the decline of the winter monsoon| while the summer cooling in central south China and warming over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific Ocean may be responsible for weakening the summer monsoon. In addition| we found that the monsoon wind speed is also highly correlated with incoming solar radiation at the surface. The present results| when interpreted together with those of recent climate model simulations| suggest two mechanisms that govern the decline of the east Asian winter and summer monsoons| both of which may be related to human activity. The winter decline is associated with global-scale warming that may be attributed to increased greenhouse gas emission| while the summer decline is associated with local cooling over south-central China that may result from air pollution. 7545,2006,2,4,Steric sea level changes estimated from historical ocean subsurface temperature and salinity analyses,An historical objective analysis of subsurface temperature and salinity was carried out on a monthly basis from 1945 to 2003 using the latest observational databases and a sea surface temperature analysis. In addition| steric sea level changes were mainly examined using outputs of the objective analyses. The objective analysis is a revised version of Ishii et al. and is available at 16 levels in the upper 700 m depth. Artificial errors in the previous analysis during the 1990s have been worked out in the present analysis. The steric sea level computed from the temperature analysis has been verified with tide gauge observations and TOPEX/Poseidon sea surface height data. A correction for crustal movement is applied for tide gauge data along the Japanese coast. The new analysis is suitable for the discussion of global warming. Validation against the tide gauge reveals that the amplitude of thermosteric sea level becomes larger and the agreement improves in comparison with the previous analysis. A substantial part of local sea level rise along the Japanese coast appears to be explained by the thermosteric effect. The thermal expansion averaged in all longitudes from 60 degrees S to 60 degrees N explains at most half of recent sea level rise detected by satellite observation during the last decade. Considerable uncertainties remain in steric sea level| particularly over the southern oceans. Temperature changes within MLD make no effective contribution to steric sea level changes along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. According to statistics using only reliable profiles of the temperature and salinity analyses| salinity variations are intrinsically important to steric sea level changes in high latitudes and in the Atlantic Ocean. Although data sparseness is severe even in the latest decade| linear trends of global mean thermosteric and halosteric sea level for 1955 to 2003 are estimated to be 0.31 +/- 0.07 mm/yr and 0.04 +/- 0.01 mm/yr| respectively. These estimates are comparable to those of the former studies. 7473,2006,3,4,Strategies to overcome barriers for cleaner generation technologies in small developing power systems: Sri Lanka case study,The penetration of cleaner and energy efficient technologies in small power systems such as the one in Sri Lanka has encountered many problems. This has caused major concerns among the policy makers| mainly in the context of the growing need to reduce harmful emissions in the electricity supply industry from the point of view of both local environmental pollution as well as the global warming concerns. This paper presents the outcome of a study involved in identifying and ranking the barriers to the promotion of cleaner and energy efficient technologies and strategies to overcome these barriers in Sri Lanka. Barriers for renewable energy based systems such as wind and wood fuel fired plants (dendro thermal power) and cleaner technologies such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) fired combined cycle and IGCC (coal) were identified based on a survey. A direct assessment multi-criteria decision making method called Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to rank the barriers. The most effective strategies are proposed to address the three major barriers for each of these technologies based on extensive discussions with all the stakeholders in the electricity industry. It was found that lack of financing instruments| high initial cost and lack of assurance of resource supply or availability are the main barriers for renewable technologies. As for cleaner fuel and technology options associated with conventional generation systems| the lack of a clear government policy| uncertainty of fuel supplies and their prices and the reliability of the technologies themselves are the major barriers. Strategies are identified to overcome the above barriers. Establishment of a proper feed in tariff| geographical diversification of installations and capacity building in commercial banks are suggested for wind power. Investment incentives| streamlining of wood production and research on site identification are proposed for wood fuel fired plants. Also the study suggests delayed implementation| combined planning with other sectors of the economy| incorporating environmental cost in planning and investment incentives as strategies for IGCC and LNG based technologies. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7621,2006,3,2,Study of hydrogen supply system with ammonia fuel,Carbon-free fuel is effective in preventing global warming. Hydrogen has no carbon and can be made also from nuclear energy or reproducible energies other than fossil fuels. However| hydrogen lacks portability because of its difficulty in liquefying| but ammonia can easily be liquefied at a room temperature and dissociated into high-content hydrogen and nitrogen using a suitable catalyst. An ammonia dissociation system for fuel cells is proposed in this paper. The residual ammonia by 13 ppm or more in the dissociated gas (H-2 + N-2) causes a decrease in the output of fuel cells. To separate residual ammonia| it should be sent to an ammonia separator and then to an ammonia distiller. In the experiment| the authors examine the concentrations of ammonia after dissociation at various temperatures| pressures and space velocities. The ammonia separator uses the fact that ammonia dissolves well in water. Then the ammonia water is distilled in the distiller. Thereby| the authors have proposed an ammonia circulation system that is a clean energy system. 7600,2006,3,1,Study on CO2 recovery system from flue gas by honeycomb type adsorbent I - (Results of tests and simulation),Carbon dioxide (CO2) included in the exhaust gas from heat power plants is the chief cause of global warming. In the present study| we focused on the rotary adsorption towers filled with honeycomb-type adsorbent and conducted the following experiments and simulations. 1. Preliminary experiment for ablation and condensation Of CO2 by thermal swing adsorption (TSA) method. 2. Pilot plant tests. 3. Simulations of adsorption and desorption of CO2 for the system optimization. From the preliminary experiment| it was clarified that the equilibrium adsorption Of CO2 followed the Langmuir model as a function of concentration and temperature| and the J factor for mass and heat transfer between gas and solid was obtained as a function of Reynolds number. The CO2 recovery rate of the pilot plant| having an inner diameter of 460 mm| and height of adsorbent is 480 mm| could be greater than 80%. These experimental results were compared with simulation results and showed good agreement. Furthermore| adsorption and desorption of CO2 were successfully simulated at each adsorption| heating| purge| and cooling stage. These results could be helpful guidance for the system optimization of rotary CO2 plants.
1617,2006,2,3,Study on the trace species in the stratosphere and their impact on climate,The trace gases (O-3| HCl| CH4| H2O| NO| NO2) in the stratosphere play an important role| not only in the photochemical processes in which the ozone layer destroyed| but also in the radiative processes. In this paper| we review the works on the distribution and variation of the trace gases in the stratosphere and their impact on climate| which have been carried out at the University of Science and Technology of China in the recent 20 years. The Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) data were used to analyse the distribution and variation of the mixing ratio of these trace gases and the temperature trends in the stratosphere in the most recent decade. And the reanalyzed National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NCAR data were also used to give the temperature trends and compared with the results from HALOE data. Numerical simulations were also carried out to study the impact of ozone depletion on the global climate. In this review| the distributions of the trace gases| especially those over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau| are discussed| and the variations and trends for the trace gases in various levels in the stratosphere have been given for the most recent decade. The temperature variation and the cooling trend obtained from HALOE data in the middle and lower stratosphere for the last 13 years are significant| which agree well with the results from NCEP/NCAR data. While the temperature trend in the upper stratosphere in this period do not seem to have much cooling. The numerical simulations show that either the Antarctic ozone hole or the ozone valley over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau affect not only the temperature and circulation in the stratosphere| but also the temperature| pressure and wind fields in the troposphere| then lead to the global climate change. 7253,2006,2,4,Summer disease in Parazoanthus axinellae (Schmidt| 1862) (Cnidaria| Zoanthidea),Climate change is affecting marine environments all over the world but scientists' attention is mainly devoted to tropical areas. In the Mediterranean Sea| species with a cold affinity are decreasing very fast from 0 to 40 in depth| while warm water species increase. From 2000| several populations of the zoanthid Parazoanthus axinellae (Schmidt 1882) have been showing signs of suffering along the Ligurian coast. Here we report a three-year monitoring| from June 2001 to September 2003| of a population of P. axinellae on the rocky cliff of the Portofino Promontory (Ligurian Sea). During this span of time the population| which covered an area of several square metres with a density of about 1 polyp cm(-2)| was severely reduced. In the meanwhile an encrusting sponge| Crambe crambe| rapidly colonized the free substrates abandoned by the zoanthid. Warm water and the massive proliferation of a cyanobacterium. attributed to the genus Porphyrosiphon are hypothesized to be the main causes of this disease. 7261,2006,2,4,Summer raids of Arocatus melanocephalus (Heteroptera| Lygaeidae) in urban buildings in Northern Italy: Is climate change to blame?,Starting in 1999| repeated massive intrusions of the bug Arocatus melanocephalus inside urban buildings have been reported every summer in different locations in Northern Italy. This investigation| performed in the town of Modena| where the problem was particularly intense| by means of a survey and meteorological data series| showed a significant positive correlation between the intensity of insect outbreaks and the daily mean temperature increase. These findings suggest that current climatic warming might have affected the behaviour and/or population dynamics of A. melanocephalus and that building intrusions might represent an attempt to escape exceptionally high summer temperatures. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7612,2006,4,4,System-analytical modelling - Part II - Wheat biotime run and yield formation. Agroclimatic potential| the Le Chatelier principle| and changes in agroclimatic potential and climate in Russia and the US,System-analytical modelling (SAM) shows that plants possess two types of biological time that alternate during the annual cycle of plant development. The alternation of these biotimes and the process of yield formation are described by the previously derived information principle. The elaborated model of the agroecosysterns of wheat is characterized by theoretically best accuracy. The model serves as a basis for the universal model of land agroclimatic potential (AP). This study simultaneously estimated the vegetation biotime run and phenological development| 12-month dynamics of soil humidity| yield formation and its bulk| multiple year trends of mean monthly air temperature| monthly precipitation| and agricultural technologies efficiency dependent on soil fertility as well as AP dynamics. The calculations were made through the mathematical solutions of inverse problems| with the help of the model. Only the long-term series of actual wheat/cereal yields| along with the long-term average monthly values of air temperature and precipitation| were used as input data. With SAM and the grain-producing area of Siberia as a case study| the information basis for the well-known Le Chatelier principle characterizing self-stabilization of ecosystems and agroecosystems has been revealed. Self-stabilization provides the restriction on random variations of their specific basic processes (informational regulated biomass formation) up to 24%. Under such a restriction| the transfer of stochastic information that destroys the system information stability does not exist. SAM of current changes in both AP and climate in grain-producing areas of Russia| as well as in the U.S.| has shown that the AP of the U.S. is twice as much as the Russian one. The manifestation of global warming in the U.S. is more significant than in Russia| and a decrease in precipitation in the U.S. and an increase in precipitation in Russia were found. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7448,2006,2,4,Temperature and biomass influences on interannual changes in CO2 exchange in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,Three years of eddy covariance measurements were used to characterize the seasonal and interannual variability of the CO2 fluxes above an alpine meadow (3250 m a.s.l.) on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau| China. This alpine meadow was a weak sink for atmospheric CO2| with a net ecosystem production (NEP) of 78.5| 91.7| and 192.5 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in 2002| 2003| and 2004| respectively. The prominent| high NEP in 2004 resulted from the combination of high gross primary production (GPP) and low ecosystem respiration (R-e) during the growing season. The period of net absorption of CO2 in 2004| 179 days| was 10 days longer than that in 2002 and 5 days longer than that in 2003. Moreover| the date on which the mean air temperature first exceeded 5.0 degrees C was 10 days earlier in 2004 (DOY110) than in 2002 or 2003. This date agrees well with that on which the green aboveground biomass (Green AGB) started to increase. The relationship between light-use efficiency and Green AGB was similar among the three years. In 2002| however| earlier senescence possibly caused low autumn GPP| and thus the annual NEP| to be lower. The low summertime R-e in 2004 was apparently caused by lower soil temperatures and the relatively lower temperature dependence of R-e in comparison with the other years. These results suggest that (1) the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau plays a potentially significant role in global carbon sequestration| because alpine meadow covers about one-third of this vast plateau| and (2) the annual NEP in the alpine meadow was comprehensively controlled by the temperature environment| including its effect on biomass growth. 7658,2006,2,4,Temperature influences carbon accumulation in moist tropical forests,Evergreen broad-leaved tropical forests can have high rates of productivity and large accumulations of carbon in plant biomass and soils. They can therefore play an important role in the global carbon cycle| influencing atmospheric CO2 concentrations if climate warms. We applied meta-analyses to published data to evaluate the apparent effects of temperature on carbon fluxes and storages in mature| moist tropical evergreen forest ecosystems. Among forests| litter production| tree growth| and belowground carbon allocation all increased significantly with site mean annual temperature (MAT); total net primary productivity (NPP) increased by an estimated 0.2-0.7 Mg C(.)ha(-1.)yr(-1.)degrees C-1. Temperature had no discernible effect on the turnover rate of aboveground forest biomass| which averaged 0.014 yr(-1) among sites. Consistent with these findings| forest biomass increased with site MAT at a rate of 5-13 Mg C(.)ha(-1.)degrees C-1. Despite greater productivity in warmer forests| soil organic matter accumulations decreased with site MAT| with a slope of -8 Mg C(.)ha(-1.)degrees C-1| indicating that decomposition rates of soil organic matter increased with MAT faster than did rates of NPP. Turnover rates of surface litter also increased with temperature among forests. We found no detectable effect of temperature on total carbon storage among moist tropical evergreen forests| but rather a shift in ecosystem structure| from low-biomass forests with relatively large accumulations of detritus in cooler sites| to large-biomass forests with relatively smaller detrital stocks in warmer locations. These results imply that| in a warmer climate| conservation of forest biomass will be critical to the maintenance of carbon stocks in moist tropical forests. 1747,2006,2,4,Temperature-dependent effects of cadmium on mitochondrial and whole-organism bioenergetics of oysters (Crassostrea virginica),Intertidal mollusks are exposed to multiple stressors in estuaries| including temperature and trace metals such as cadmium| which may interactively affect their physiology. We have studied the combined effects of temperature and cadmium stress on metabolism of oysters at the whole animal and mitochondrial levels. In vivo exposure to 50 mu g L-1 Cd led to a significant increase in basal metabolic rate (BMR) in 20 degrees C-acclimated but not in 28 degrees C-acclimated oysters. Cadmium exposure resulted in a fast decrease in mitochondrial capacity to synthesize ATP in 28 degrees C-acclimated but not 20 degrees C-acclimated oysters indicating that mitochondria| may be functioning closer to their capacity limits in the former group. This agrees with elevated mortality in Cd-exposed oysters at 28 degrees C but not 20 degrees C. In general| elevated temperature increased sensitivity of oysters to cadmium at mitochondrial and whole-organism levels suggesting that oyster populations may become more susceptible to trace metal pollution during seasonal warming and/or global climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1668,2006,2,4,Temperature-dependent phenology and predation in arthropod systems,A central issue in ecology is to determine how environmental variations associated with global climate change| especially changing temperatures| affect trophic interactions in various ecosystems. This paper develops a temperature-dependent| stage-based| discrete| cohort model of the population dynamics of an insect pest under pressure from a predator. Guided by experimental data| the model is applied specifically to predation of grasshoppers by rangeland lycosid spiders. The development rate of insect arthropods is strongly affected by temperature| and these temperature-dependent phenological effects couple with shifts in the daily activity periods for both prey and predator| thereby increasing or decreasing opportunities for interaction. The model addresses these effects quantitatively by introducing a temperature-dependent| joint-activity factor that enters the predator's functional response. The model also includes a prey mortality rate that is temperature-dependent through the prey development rate. The model is parameterized using field and experimental data for spiders and grasshoppers. We investigate the effect of the solar power index (sunlight)| mean temperature| and temperature variation| as measured by amplitude| on the developmental times and survivorship| both with| and without| predation. We conclude that increasing variation in temperature results in a stronger relative effect on survivorship due to predation. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7293,2006,2,4,Temperature-related mortality in France| a comparison between regions with different climates from the perspective of global warming,This paper aims to explain the results of an observational population study that was carried out between 1991 and 1995 in six regions (departments) in France. The study was to assess the relationship between temperature and mortality in a few areas of France that offer widely varying climatic conditions and lifestyles| to determine their thermal optimum| defined as a 3 degrees C temperature band with the lowest mortality rate in each area| and then to compare the mortality rates from this baseline band with temperatures above and below the baseline. The study period was selected because it did not include extreme cold or hot events such as a heatwave. Data on daily deaths from each department were first used to examine the entire population and then to examine men| women| various age groups and various causes of death (respiratory disease| stroke| ischemic heart disease| other disease of the circulatory system| and all other causes excluding violent deaths). Mean temperatures were provided by the National Weather Service. The results depicted an asymmetrical V- or U-shaped relationship between mortality and temperature| with a thermal optimum lower for the elderly| and generally lower for women than for men except in Paris. The relationship was also different depending on the cause of death. In all cases| more evidence was collected showing that cold weather was more deadly than hot weather| and it would now be interesting to enlarge the study to include years with cold spells and heatwaves. Furthermore| the results obtained could be of great use in estimating weather-related mortality as a consequence of future climate-change scenarios. 7384,2006,2,3,Temporal changes in N2O efflux from cropped and fallow agricultural fields,Nitrous oxide (N2O) is implicated in both global warming and catalytic destruction of stratospheric ozone layer. Although| its atmospheric abundance is increasing unabated due to intensification of agricultural activities in recent years| but the estimates of both source and sink strengths of N2O are still highly uncertain. This study was conducted to measure seasonal variation in N2O efflux from the cropped and fallow fields with different levels of fertilizer application and moisture regimes. There was a pulse in N2O emission after the application of N-fertilizer and also after irrigation. This indicated that NO production was stimulated either by nitrifying bacteria with addition of NH4+ as the substrate in oxic condition or by denitrifying bacteria in partial anoxic condition created by irrigation. Besides| emission of more N2O from the cropped than fallow fields| with the same treatments of chemical fertilizers and irrigation| underlined the importance of plants in transportation of NO from the rhizosphere to troposphere. This observation indicates that the plants have also a transport pathway of N2O as reported in the case of CH4 transport through aquatic plants. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1694,2006,5,4,Terminal Pleistocene braided to meandering transition in rivers of the Southeastern USA,Thirteen paleomeanders on the oldest parts of meander belts on floodplains in the Coastal Plain of Georgia and the Carolinas (southeastern USA) were selected for radiocarbon dating to determine the onset of meandering following braiding during the Late Pleistocene during Oxygen Isotope Stage 2. The radiocarbon ages were compared to previously reported Late Pleistocene ages for braid bars and eolian dunes. Results indicate that meandering commenced at circa 15|000 to 16|000 cal years BP and continued throughout the terminal Pleistocene and Holocene. Correlation with other paleoenvironmental records indicates that this shift to meandering was associated with global warming and moister conditions in the Southeastern United States that led to a denser vegetation cover and a reduction in sediment yield. The shift to meandering was also associated with some incision and terracing of the Late Pleistocene braided fluvial surfaces. Paleodischarge of the bankfull condition of early Holocene meandering channels was apparently greater than under modem conditions| suggesting wetter conditions at that time than at present. This braided to meandering transition in the southeastern United States provides an example of river response to global climate change in a relatively low latitude region of the world that was not influenced by glacial or periglacial landscape conditions. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1767,2006,3,3,The (OECTS)-E-bj framework for integrated assessment: Hybrid modeling of transportation,Technology is a central issue for the global climate change problem| requiring analysis tools that can examine the impact of specific technologies within a long-term| global context. This paper describes the architecture of the ObjECTS-MiniCAM integrated assessment model| which implements a long-term| global model of energy| economy| agriculture| land-use| atmosphere| and climate change in a framework that allows the flexible incorporation of explicit technology detail. We describe the implementation of a "bottom-up" representation of the transportation sector as an illustration of this approach| in which the resulting hybrid model is fully integrated| internally consistent and theoretically compatible with the regional and global modeling framework. The analysis of the transportation sector presented here supports and clarifies the need for a comprehensive strategy promoting advanced vehicle technologies and. an economy-wide carbon policy to cost-effectively reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector in the long-term. 7299,2006,3,2,The car and fuel of the future,This paper is based on a review of the technical literature on alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) and discussions with experts in vehicle technology and energy analysis. It is derived from analysis provided to the bipartisan National Commission on Energy Policy. The urgent need to reverse the business-as-usual growth path in global warming pollution in the next two decades to avoid serious if not catastrophic climate change necessitates action to make our vehicles far less polluting. In the near-term| by far the most cost-effective strategy for reducing emissions and fuel use is efficiency. The car of the near future is the hybrid gasoline-electric vehicle| because it can reduce gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emissions 30 to 50% with no change in vehicle class and hence no loss of jobs or compromise on safety or performance. It will likely become the dominant vehicle platform by the year 2020. Ultimately| we will need to replace gasoline with a zero-carbon fuel. All AFV pathways require technology advances and strong government action to succeed. Hydrogen is the most challenging of all alternative fuels| particularly because of the enormous effort needed to change our existing gasoline infrastructure. The most promising AFV pathway is a hybrid that can be connected to the electric grid. These so-called plug-in hybrids or e-hybrids will likely travel three to four times as far on a kilowatt-hour of renewable electricity as fuel cell vehicles. Ideally these advanced hybrids would also be a flexible fuel vehicle capable of running on a blend of biofuels and gasoline. Such a car could travel 500 miles on 1 gal of gasoline (and 5 gal of cellulosic ethanol) and have under one-tenth the greenhouse gas emissions of current hybrids. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1653,2006,2,3,The connection between the climate change model and a building's thermal response model: A case of Slovenia,The world's leading climatologists believe that global climate changes are inevitable. The basis for this is the fact that we are already facing climate changes that will become even more significant in the future. The impact of climate changes is and will be noticeable in all fields of human activity; therefore| it will also influence the supply and demand of energy. Since we are observing a longer period of time| comparable to the lifespan of a building| and the amount of energy demanded is an important factor it is necessary to adjust the building and the renovation of buildings to the predicted climate changes. The prediction of a building's thermal response is the basis for the integral planning of the building and building services installation with which we create suitable living conditions. In order to predict the expected changes in the building's thermal response in the future it is necessary to correct the available meteorological variable databases today. In this paper we present various climate-change scenaria expected for Slovenia and the methods for correcting the starting points of the local meteorological databases. For the correction we used simplified mathematical models with which we-by forming test reference years (TRYs)-elaborate corrected test reference years (CTRYs). The latter are used for declaring the changes in energy demand in buildings and the effectiveness of a chosen building services installation that uses natural energy sources. As regards the predicted climate scenaria for the continental part of Slovenia| the energy use for heating buildings will be reduced by 1.5% to 31.4%. These climate changes will have a substantial influence on the thermal comfort in buildings during the summer In the heavyweight and naturally ventilated residential buildings that are currently thermally comfortable| suitable summer temperatures will be exceeded during 20% to 33% of the summer The effectiveness of natural and passive cooling techniques will radically change. In cooled buildings we can expect a 2-to-40-fold increase in the use of final (end-use) cooling energy when compared to today. The results presented in this paper confirm the fact that it is necessary to evaluate the consequences of global climate changes also from the point of view of energy use in buildings| their construction and building services installations. (c) 2006 Journal of Mechanical Engineering. All rights reserved. 7404,2006,3,3,The cost of using global warming potentials: Analysing the trade off between CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O,The metric governing the trade-off between different greenhouse gases in the Kyoto Protocol| the Global Warming Potentials (GWPs)| has received ample critique from both scientific and economic points of view. Here we use an integrated climate-economic optimization model to estimate the cost-effective trade-off between CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O when meeting a temperature stabilization target. We then estimate the increased cost from using GWPs when meeting the same temperature target. Although the efficient valuation of the gases differs significantly from their respective GWPs| the potential economic benefit of valuing them in a more correct way amounts to 3.8 percent of the overall costs of meeting the temperature stabilization target in the base case. In absolute value| this corresponds to an additional net present value cost of US$(2000)100 billion. To corroborate our findings we perform a Monte Carlo-analysis where several key parameters are randomly varied simultaneously. The result from this exercise shows that our main result is robust to a wide range of changes in the key parameter values| giving a median economic loss from using GWPs of 4.2 percent. 7451,2006,2,4,The Decapolis region (Northern Jordan) as historical example of desertification? Evidence from soil development and distribution,Historic land use was found to impact soil development directly in the Decapolis region in Northern Jordan| leading to re-distribution| not simply erosion and degradation of soils. Several authors proposed that land use had a strongly negative impact on soil development in semi-arid areas| leading to desertification. The term desertification was used to describe erosion| caused by land use| as the reason for an advance of deserts and the abandonment of ancient sites. However| evidence from Jordan shows that erosion is a most unlikely cause for the abandonment of historic sites. Land use lasting over centuries seemingly changed the character of the landscape and can be traced through distinct soil development. Soils may have been degraded since prehistoric times and it seems possible that major erosion in the Decapolis region was not primarily related to land use or increased rainfall| but to more frequent extreme events interrupting prolonged droughts. As global warming seems likely| it is important to consider the impact of climate on landscape development in future management plans. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 1647,2006,2,4,The economic impact of global climate change on Mediterranean rangeland ecosystems: A Space-for-Time approach,Global Climate Change (GCC) can bring about changes in ecosystems and consequently in their services value. Here we show that the urban population in Israel values the green landscape of rangelands in the mesic Mediterranean climate region and is willing to pay for preserving it in light of the expected increasing aridity conditions in this region. Their valuation of the landscape is higher than that of the grazing services these rangelands provide for livestock growers. These results stem from a Time-for-Space approach with which we were able to measure changes in biomass production and rainfall at four experimental sites along an aridity gradient. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7366,2006,2,4,The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant| bird and fish populations,This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants| fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime| whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5-20 days| and fish phases have advanced 10-30 days in the spring period. Estonia's average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring| while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer| the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter| changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use| heat islands or air pollution. 7474,2006,4,4,The effects of sea-ice and land-snow concentrations on planetary albedo from the earth radiation budget experiment,The high-latitude ice/snow-albedo feedback is a principal element in many pateoclimate theories and global warming scenarios. The strength of this feedback is determined by the ice/snow effects on the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) albedo| which is also strongly affected by clouds. Using currently available satellite observations| we estimate the radiative effectiveness (RE) of ice and snow with regards to the TOA albedo| which we define as the change in the TOA albedo corresponding to changes of 0% to 100% in the ice or snow cover. The REs of the northern hemisphere (NH) sea ice| land snow| and southern hemisphere (SH) sea ice are found to be 0.22| 0.23 and 0.16| respectively. This means that| for an incident solar flux of about 400 W m(-2) reaching the TOA it? the polar latitudes in summer| local reduction in ice/snow concentrations from 100% to 0% will result in a decrease in reflected short wave radiation of approximately 80 W m(-2). These changes in the TOA albedo are significant| yet smaller than the associated changes in the surface albedo. Comparison of the TOA albedo values with available surface albedo observations helps to identify the role of clouds in the RE of ice/snow. The analysis is based on the whole time-space domain where the sect ice and land snow appear| and reveals a remarkable similarity in the ice and snow RE in the areas with high sea-ice and land-snow cover variability| despite the varying nature of the surface cover| seasonality| and locations. These estimates provide a useful constraint to test current climate models. 1616,2006,5,4,The elevation history of the Tibetan Plateau and its implications for the Asian monsoon,The determination of the evolving palaeoaltitude of the Tibetan Plateau| since the India-Eurasia collision underpins our understanding of how orography in central Asia affects the intensity of the monsoon and hence global climate change. Palacoaltitudes| however| cannot be measured directly and need to be inferred from proxy observations that are usually model-dependent. Differing tectonic models for the behaviour of the lithosphere during continental collision have contrasting implications for the elevation of the plateau. However| two techniques recently employed for determining palaeo-elevation are independent of tectonic models| the first involving the variation with altitude of oxygen isotopes in precipitation and the second involving the change of leaf morphology with moist static energy of the atmosphere. Elevation studies have focused on southern Tibet| largely due to the relative ease of access to the region. There is a remarkable unanimity amongst the diverse techniques applied that the altitude of the southern plateau has not significantly changed since at least the mid Miocene (ca. 15 Ma) arguing for an onset of the monsoon system during or before the early Miocene. A range of tectonic studies suggest that the northern and eastern parts of the plateau are younger geornorphological features| but there are few quantitative constraints of the timing of elevation from these regions of Tibet. Since both the elevation and the surface area of the plateau impact on atmospheric circulation| palacoaltitude studies need to be extended to chart the increasing areas of elevated land surface through time. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 1673,2006,4,4,The generational divide in support for environmental policies: European evidence,This article examines age variations in support for environmental protection policies that affect climate change using a sample of over 14|000 respondents to a 1999 Eurobarometer survey. There is a steady decline with age in whether respondents are willing to incur higher gasoline prices to protect the environment. This relationship remains after controlling for socioeconomic characteristics. There are age-related differences in information about environmental risks| information sources about the environment| perceived health risks from climate change| and degree of worry about climate change. However| taking these factors into account does not eliminate the age variation in willingness to pay more for gasoline to protect the environment. 1650,2006,2,3,The global-scale temperature and moisture dependencies of soil organic carbon decomposition: an analysis using a mechanistic decomposition model,Since the decomposition rate of soil organic carbon (SOC) varies as a function of environmental conditions| global climate change is expected to alter SOC decomposition dynamics| and the resulting changes in the amount of CO2 emitted from soils will feedback onto the rate at which climate change occurs. While this soil feedback is expected to be significant because the amount of SOC is substantially more than the amount of carbon in the atmosphere| the environmental dependencies of decomposition at global scales that determine the magnitude of the soil feedback have remained poorly characterized. In this study| we address this issue by fitting a mechanistic decomposition model to a global dataset of SOC| optimizing the model's temperature and moisture dependencies to best match the observed global distribution of SOC. The results of the analysis indicate that the temperature sensitivity of decomposition at global scales (Q(10)=1.37) is significantly less than is assumed by many terrestrial ecosystem models that directly apply temperature sensitivity from small-scale studies| and that the maximal rate of decomposition occurs at higher moisture values than is assumed by many models. These findings imply that the magnitude of the soil decomposition feedback onto rate of global climate change will be less sensitive to increases in temperature| and modeling of temperature and moisture dependencies of SOC decomposition in global-scale models should consider effects of scale. 7416,2006,4,3,The HAMMONIA chemistry climate model: Sensitivity of the mesopause region to the 11-year solar cycle and CO(2) doubling,This paper introduces the three-dimensional Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA)| which treats atmospheric dynamics| radiation| and chemistry interactively for the height range from the earth's surface to the thermosphere ( approximately 250 km). It is based on the latest version of the ECHAM atmospheric general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg| Germany| which is extended to include important radiative and dynamical processes of the upper atmosphere and is coupled to a chemistry module containing 48 compounds. The model is applied to study the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on the atmosphere| represented| on the one hand| by the 11-yr solar cycle and| on the other hand| by a doubling of the present-day concentration of carbon dioxide. The numerical experiments are analyzed with the focus on the effects on temperature and chemical composition in the mesopause region. Results include a temperature response to the solar cycle by 2 to 10 K in the mesopause region with the largest values occurring slightly above the summer mesopause. Ozone in the secondary maximum increases by up to 20% for solar maximum conditions. Changes in winds are in general small. In the case of a doubling of carbon dioxide the simulation indicates a cooling of the atmosphere everywhere above the tropopause but by the smallest values around the mesopause. It is shown that the temperature response up to the mesopause is strongly influenced by changes in dynamics. During Northern Hemisphere summer| dynamical processes alone would lead to an almost global warming of up to 3 K in the uppermost mesosphere. 1644,2006,2,4,The human role in changing river channels,Direct consequences of the human role| where human activity affects river channels through engineering works including channelization| dam construction| diversion and culverting| have been long recognised [Marsh| G.P.| 1864. Man and Nature or Physical Geography as Modified by Human Action. Charles Scribner| New York; Thomas Jr.| W.L.| (ed.) 1956. Man's Role in Changing the Face of the Earth. Chicago| University of Chicago Press| Chicago.]. The less obvious indirect effects of point and reach changes occurring downstream and throughout the basin| however| are much more recently appreciated| dating from key contributions by Strahler [Strahler| A.N.| 1956. The nature of induced erosion and aggradation. In W. L. Thomas (Ed.)| Man's Role in Changing the Face of the Earth. University of Chicago Press| Chicago| 621-638.]| Wohnan [Wolman| M.G.| 1967. A cycle of sedimentation and erosion in urban river channels. Geografiska Annaler 49A| 385-95.]| Schumm [Schumm| S.A.| 1969. River metamorphosis. Proceedings American Society of Civil Engineers| Journal Hydraulics Division 95| 255-73.]| and Graf [Graf| W.L.| 1977. The rate law in fluvial geomorphology. American Journal of Science| 277| 178-191.]. These are complemented by effects of alterations of land use| such as deforestation| intensive agriculture and incidence of fire| with the most extreme effects produced by building activity and urbanisation. Changing river channels are most evident in the channel cross-section where changes of size| shape and composition are now well-established| with up to tenfold increases or decreases illustrated by results from more than 200 world studies. In addition the overall channel planform| the network and the ecology have changed. Specific terns have become associated with changing river channels including enlargement| shrinkage and metamorphosis. Although the scope of adjustment has been established| it has not always been possible to predict what will happen in a particular location| because of complex response and contingency. The ways in which changes in cross-section relate to reach and network changes are less clear| despite investigations showing the distribution of changes along segmented channels. When considering the human role in relation to changing river channels| at least five challenges persist. First| because prediction of the nature and amount of likely change at a particular location is not certain| and because the contrasting responses of humid and arid systems needs to be considered| modelling is required to reduce uncertainty| as was first emphasised by Burkham [Burkham| D.E.| 1981. Uncertainties resulting from changes in river form. American Society Civil Engineers Proceedings| Journal Hydraulics Division 107| 593-610.]. Second| feedback effects incorporated within the relationship between changes at channel| reach and network scales can have considerable implications| especially because changes now evident may have occurred| or have been initiated| under different environmental conditions. Third| consideration of global climate change is imperative when considering channel sensitivity and responses to threshold conditions. Fourth| channel design involving geomorphology should now be an integral part of restoration procedures. This requires| fifthly| greater awareness of different cultures as a basis for understanding constraints imposed by legislative frameworks. Better understanding of the ways in which the perception of the human role in changing river channels varies with culture as well as varying over time should enhance application of design for river channel landscapes. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1634,2006,2,4,The impact of increased environmental stochasticity due to climate change on the dynamics of asiatic wild ass,Theory proposes that increased environmental stochasticity negatively impacts population viability. Thus| in addition to the directional changes predicted for weather parameters under global climate change (GCC)| the increase in variance of these parameters may also have a negative effect on biodiversity. As a case study| we assessed the impact of interannual variance in precipitation on the viability of an Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) population reintroduced in Makhtesh Ramon Nature Reserve| Israel. We monitored the population from 1985 to 1999 to determine what environmental factors affect reproductive success. Annual precipitation during the year before conception| drought conditions during gestation| and population size determined reproductive success. We used the parameters derived from this model to assess population performance under various scenarios in a Leslie matrix type model with demographic and environmental stochasticity. Specifically| we used a change in the precipitation regime in our study area to formulate a GCC scenario and compared the simulated dynamics of the population with a no-change scenario. The coefficient of variation in population size under the global change scenario was 30% higher than under the no-change scenario. Minor die-offs (>= 15%) following droughts increased extinction probability nearly 10-fold. Our results support the idea that an increase in environmental stochasticity due to GCC may| in itself| pose a significant threat to biodiversity. 7632,2006,3,4,The impact of nitrogen placement and tillage on NO| N(2)O| CH(4) and CO(2) fluxes from a clay loam soil,To evaluate the impact of N placement depth and no-till (NT) practice on the emissions of NO| N(2)O| CH(4) and CO(2) from soils| we conducted two N placement experiments in a long-term tillage experiment site in northeastern Colorado in 2004. Trace gas flux measurements were made 2-3 times per week| in zero-N fertilizer plots that were cropped continuously to corn (Zea mays L.) under conventional-till (CT) and NT. Three N placement depths| replicated four times (5| 10 and 15 cm in Exp. 1 and 0| 5 and 10 cm in Exp. 2| respectively) were used. Liquid urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN| 224 kg N ha(-1)) was injected to the desired depth in the CT- or NT-soils in each experiment. Mean flux rates of NO| N(2)O| CH(4) and CO(2) ranged from 3.9 to 5.2 mu g N m(-2) h(-1)| 60.5 to 92.4 mu g N m(-2) h(-1)| -0.8 to 0.5 mu g C m(-2) h(-1)| and 42.1 to 81.7 mg C m(-2) h(-1) in both experiments| respectively. Deep N placement (10 and 15 cm) resulted in lower NO and N(2)O emissions compared with shallow N placement (0 and 5 cm) while CH(4) and CO(2) emissions were not affected by N placement in either experiment. Compared with N placement at 5 cm| for instance| averaged N(2)O emissions from N placement at 10 cm were reduced by more than 50% in both experiments. Generally| NT decreased NO emission and CH(4) oxidation but increased N(2)O emissions compared with CT irrespective of N placement depths. Total net global warming potential (GWP) for N(2)O| CH(4) and CO(2) was reduced by deep N placement only in Exp. 1 but was increased by NT in both experiments. The study results suggest that deep N placement (e.g.| 10 cm) will be an effective option for reducing N oxide emissions and GWP from both fertilized CT- and NT-soils. 7389,2006,5,4,The Indian monsoon as a component of the climate system during the Holocene,The Indian summer monsoon is fundamentally a giant land-sea breeze produced by the heating of the Eurasian land mass and the relative cooling of the Indian Ocean. It is a significant component of the climate system as it has global linkages through El Nino-Southem Oscillation (ENSO) and other factors. Changes in the land-ocean temperature contrast can have a profound influence on the strength of the monsoon winds and precipitation. Although India is fortunate to have instrumental records of rainfall dating back to. the 18(th) century| it is important to investigate how on geological time scales| the monsoon may have responded to variations in the incoming solar energy| the earth's orbital characteristics and glacial boundary conditions. For reconstructing past monsoon episodes| recourse has to be taken to proxy data as indirect evidence of what the conditions might have been like. There are many high-resolution proxy indicators such as width and density of tree rings in the Himalayan forests| geochemical characteristics of Arabian Sea corals| laminated ocean-floor sediment cores off the west coast of India| lake-bed pollen sequences from northwestern India| and high-elevation ice cores from the Tibetan region. It must be realised that inferences drawn from proxy studies are bound to have limitations and uncertainties and cannot be expected to match the accuracy of analyses carried out with recent meteorological data. However| for studies on time scales of hundreds to thousands of years| there is perhaps no alternative to the use of proxy data. It is now generally agreed that the climate of the Holocene was relatively stable| but was characterised by millennial scale variability and long-term trends including changes in the nature of ENSO. As more results emerge from proxy studies| we would be in a better position to re-construct past monsoons| droughts and floods over the Indian region. If parallels to the present global warming trend were discovered in the historical past| they would help in building better monsoon prediction models. 1620,2006,2,3,The influence of the possible global climate change on the properties of Mexican soils,To estimate the changes in the integral fertility index of virgin soils in Mexico upon the expected global climate changes| we applied a method based on revealing the quantitative relationship between the Budyko radiation index of dryness and the modal values of the regional agrochemical properties of soils located on a nearly horizontal surface (with slope of less than 0.001) at elevations ranging from 0 to 2500 m a.s.l. The results of existing forecasts of the alteration of the global air temperature| radiation| and precipitation were also used. In the case that the carbon dioxide content is doubled in the atmosphere by the end of the 21st century| a medium and weak decrease in the soil fertility will be observed in the central (cereal) regions of Mexico; furthermore| a significant (over 20%) decrease in fertility will be observed in the tropical regions| where sugar cane is cultivated. 7665,2006,2,2,The intensity of precipitation during extratropical cyclones in global warming simulations: a link to cyclone intensity?,Simulations of global warming over the coming century from two CSIRO GCMs are analysed to assess changes in the intensity of extratropical cyclones| and the potential role of increased latent heating associated with precipitation during cyclones. A simple surface cyclone detection scheme is applied to a four-member ensemble of simulations from the Mark 2 GCM| under rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal distribution of cyclones appears broadly realistic during 1961-1990. By 2071-2100| with 3 K global warming| numbers over 20 degrees N to 70 degrees N decrease by 6% in winter and 2% annually| with similar results for the south. The average intensity of cyclones| from relative central pressure and other measures| is largely unchanged however. 30-yr extremes of dynamic intensity also show little clear change| including values averaged over continents. Mean rain rates at cyclone centres are typically at least double rates from all days. Rates during cyclones increase by an average 14% in the northern winter under global warming. Rates over adjacent grid squares and during the previous day increase similarly| as do extreme rates. Results from simulations of the higher-resolution (1.8 degrees grid) Mark 3 GCM are similar| with widespread increases in rain rates but not in cyclone intensity. The analyses suggest that latent heating during storms increases| as anticipated due to the increased moisture capacity of the warmer atmosphere. However| any role for enhanced heating in storm development in the GCMs is apparently masked by other factors. An exception is a 5% increase in extreme intensity around 55 degrees S in Mark 3| despite decreased numbers of lows| a factor assessed using extreme value theory. Further studies with yet higher-resolution models may be needed to examine the potential realism of these results| particularly with regard to extremes at smaller scale. 7544,2006,2,4,The interannual variability and trend of precipitable water over southern Greece,The precipitable water (PW) content was estimated over southern Greece for three atmospheric layers| using 28-yr twice-daily radiosonde measurements of temperature| humidity| and atmospheric pressure. Precipitable water demonstrates considerable variation at the monthly and interannual time scales as well as statistically significant upward trends at the annual level and for June-August (JJA) and September-November (SON). The relationship between PW and surface climate was also found to vary by season and surface climate variable. Disaggregation of seasonal PW trends by synoptic type revealed that seasonal trends might be attributed to increases in moisture in a limited number of airmass types such that maritime air masses appear to be becoming moister while their continental counterparts are drying. Despite fundamental changes to the intrinsic PW properties of air masses for some synoptic categories| the significance of these for determining the overall trend in seasonal PW levels is related to their weighted contribution as determined by changing airmass frequency. Consequently| the climatological effects of a moistening or drying air mass may be offset by a declining frequency. It is also shown that increasing PW trends cannot be attributed unequivocally to airmass warming as significant increases in PW have occurred in conjunction with falling temperatures in some seasons and airmass types. Accordingly. factors other than the commonly assumed global-warming-related increase in atmospheric moisture via the link between temperature and saturation vapor pressure must be considered if the mechanisms responsible for PW trends over southern Greece are to be fully understood. 7608,2006,3,3,The Montreal Protocol's multilateral fund and sustainable development,The 1987 Montreal Protocol is widely seen as a global environmental accord that has produced tangible results in terms of reductions in ozone-depleting substances. In addition| there have been other benefits| largely unrecognized and undocumented| that can best be characterized in a sustainable development framework based on a review of 50 out of 931 projects implemented over a 13 year period by one of the four implementing agencies of the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the Montreal Protocol. All investment projects have reduced ozone depleting potential and global warming potential. Some projects have reduced atmospheric emissions and contamination of groundwater. Other projects have increased the competitiveness of enterprises in domestic and international markets and have sustained and in a few cases created employment opportunities. Others| fewer in number| have potentially contributed to environmental problems| have initially created difficulties in maintaining productivity and quality standards and have decreased the number of employment opportunities because of the need to rationalize manufacturing processes. The potential contributions from Multilateral Fund investment projects to sustainable development could probably have been amplified with project design guidance for the technical staffs of all three implementing agencies executing investment projects. In thinking about other multilateral environmental agreements| one can see the need for similar guidance for Global Environment Facility funded projects supporting the focal areas of climate change| international waters| ozone depletion and persistent organic pollutants. Some of them have the potential to generate multiple beneficial impacts in addition to their stated environmental objective if designed and implemented within a sustainable development framework. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1631,2006,2,4,The northern geographic range limit of the intertidal limpet Collisella scabra: a test of performance| recruitment| and temperature hypotheses,A decline in abundance towards a species' range boundary is often interpreted as evidence of a decline in individual success| and is usually assumed to reflect a decline in suitable environmental conditions. Gradual declines towards high latitude range boundaries are frequently attributed to limitations on organismal tolerance of cold temperature. Rarely have these two assumptions been empirically tested. The intertidal gastropod Collisella scabra declines monotonically in abundance from 435 to < 1 m(-2) over the northern 300 km of its geographic distribution. I examined temperature| adult performance (survival| growth| reproduction)| and recruitment at five locations in this region of decline. Mortality ranged from 4.9 to 11.2% per month| but was highest at the lowest latitude study site. Growth rates ranged from 0 to 5.2 mm yr(-1)| but were generally lower at lower latitude sites. Gonad development was high in the three populations examined| but the possibility of infrequent spawning at high latitude sites could not be excluded. Finally| a comparison of performance differences among populations with temperature revealed clear effects of temperature on both growth and mortality; however| the patterns were not consistent with a hypothesis of cold stress at the range boundary. Overall there was little evidence for either reduced performance or increasing cold stress in low density high latitude populations. Over the same 300 km| recruitment declined monotonically from a mean of six recruits per 625 cm(2) to less than one; suggesting that limitations on recruitment| rather that adult performance| are responsible for low abundance in marginal populations. Several hypotheses for the decline in recruitment are discussed in the paper and the most likely explanation appears to be an increase in the distance between populations at the range margin| reducing the chances that dispersing larvae find suitable habitat for settlement. 7265,2006,3,2,The nuclear fuel cycle: A role for mineralogy and geochemistry,As the world faces the consequences of global warming caused by the use of fossil fuels| there has been a resurgence of interest in nuclear power. However| there is no "silver bullet|" and each energy-producing system produces waste. This issue of Elements shows the importance of mineralogy and geochemistry in the safe management and disposal of the different types of waste generated by the nuclear fuel cycle. 1635,2006,2,4,The PACE monitoring strategy: A concept for permafrost research in Qinghai-Tibet,Permafrost has been identified as one of six cryospheric indicators for global climate change within the monitoring framework of the World Meteorological Organisations Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). Vast areas of the Tibetan Plateau are underlain by predominantly warm permafrost| which is actually degrading due to a rise in mean surface temperatures caused by global warming. Because of the important role of surface temperature variations on the Tibetan Plateau for the onset and characteristic of the monsoon circulation over south-east Asia| it becomes evident that a consistent climate monitoring strategy in the region is urgently required. As permafrost reacts sensitively to changes in surface temperature| it is considered as a key variable in such a regional climate monitoring system. The Permafrost and Climate in Europe (PACE) project developed standardised methods for the monitoring of permafrost temperatures and distribution in European mountains| which are in good agreement with the site selection criteria of the GCOS Global Terrestrial Network-Permafrost (GTN-P). Following the PACE monitoring strategy| an international project "Permafrost and Climate in Tibet" is proposed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 7682,2006,3,4,The pathological history of weather and climate modification: Three cycles of promise and hype,The checkered history of weather and climate modification exhibits a modicum of promise and an excess of hype. This paper examines two completed historical cycles: the first| dating from 1839| involved western proprietary rainmaking or "pluviculture;" the second| from 1946 to 1978 involved "cloud seeding|" commercial rainmaking| and the attempted weaponization of the clouds. Recently| discussion of weather and climate modification has returned to the science-policy agenda| framed as seemingly inevitable responses to killer storms and global warming. The long history of deceptive and delusional attempts to "control" nature| however| raised serious questions about|the rationality of these options. 7435,2006,4,3,The perception and valuation of the risks of climate change: A rational and behavioral blend,Over 250 respondents - graduate students in law and public policy - assessed the risks of climate change and valued climate-change mitigation policies. Many aspects of their behavior were consistent with rational behavior. For example| respondents successfully estimated distributions of temperature increases in Boston by 2100. The median value of best estimates was 1-3 degrees Fahrenheit. In addition| people with higher risk estimates| whether for temperature or related risks (e.g.| hurricane intensities) offered more to avoid warming. Median willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid global warming was $0.50/gallon| and 3% of income. And important scope tests (e.g.| respondents paid more for bigger accomplishments) were passed. However| significant behavioral propensities also emerged. For example| accessibility of neutral information on global warming boosted risk estimates. Warming projections correlated with estimates for unrelated risks| such as earthquakes and heart attacks. The implied WTP for avoidance was much greater when asked as a percent of income than as a gas tax| a percent thinking bias. Home team betting showed itself; individuals predicting a Bush victory predicted smaller temperature increases. In the climate-change arena| behavioral decision tendencies are like a fun-house mirror: They magnify some estimates and shrink others| but the contours of rational decision rmain recognizable. 7468,2006,3,3,The redox combustion of carbon monoxide for recovering pure carbon dioxide by using molten (Na+| K+)(2)(CO32-| SO42-) mixtures,Large-scale combustion systems| such as thermal power plants| emit large amounts of carbon dioxide| which can increase global warming. A molten salt redox combustion system was proposed to recover pure carbon dioxide exhausted from the combustion of fossil fuels. This system is composed of two successive processes by using reactions occurring in a molten salt. The molten salt is the mixture of the molten alkali metal sulfates and carbonates. The sulfate ions oxidize the fuels in first processes| being changed to reductive species such as sulfide ions. In this process| carbon dioxide and water are exclusively exhausted. The reductive species of sulfur compounds are oxidized to regenerate the sulfate ions by air in the second process. In this study| these above two processes were tried by using molten [(Na+)(0.5)| (K+)(0.5)](2)[(CO32-)(0.9)| (SO42-)(0.1)] alternatively. The oxidation of carbon monoxide as fuel by sulfate ions and the regeneration of sulfate ions by air were investigated in the temperature range of 700-950 degrees C| respectively. These reactions were exothermic. The rate of the regeneration of the sulfate ions was extremely high. During the oxidation of carbon monoxide| the reaction was first order in carbon monoxide with an activation energy of 101 kJ mol(-1). The optimum condition to recover pure carbon dioxide on practical operation was discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1738,2006,2,4,The relationship between phytoplankton diversity and community function in a coastal lagoon,The decrease of biodiversity related to the phenomena of global climate change is stimulating the scientific community towards a better understanding of the relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. In ecosystems where marked biodiversity changes occur at seasonal time scales| it is easier to relate them with ecosystem functioning. The objective of this work is to analyse the relationship between phytoplankton diversity and primary production in St. Andre coastal lagoon - SW Portugal. This lagoon is artificially opened to the sea every year in early spring| exhibiting a shift from a marine dominated to a low salinity ecosystem in winter. Data on salinity| temperature| nutrients| phytoplankton species composition| chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration and primary production were analysed over a year. Modelling studies based on production-irradiance curves were also conducted. A total of 19 taxa were identified among diatoms| dinoflagellates and euglenophyceans| the less abundant group. Lowest diversities (Shannon-Wiener index) were observed just before the opening to the sea. Results show a negative correlation (p < 0.05) between diversity and chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration (0.2-40.3 mg Chl a m(-3)). Higher Chl a values corresponded to periods when the community was dominated by the dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum (> 90% of cell abundance) and production was maximal (up to 234.8 mg C m(-3) h(-1)). Maximal photosynthetic rates (P(max)) (2.0-22.5 mg C mg Chl a(-1) h(-1)) were higher under lower Chl a concentrations. The results of this work suggest that decreases in diversity are associated with increases in biomass and production| whereas increases correspond to opposite trends. It is suggested that these trends| contrary to those observed in terrestrial and in some benthic ecosystems| may be a result of low habitat diversity in the water column and resulting competitive pressure. The occurrence of the highest photosynthetic rates when Chl a is low| under some of the highest diversities| suggests a more efficient use of irradiance under low biomass-high diversity conditions. Results suggest that this increased efficiency is not explained by potential reductions in nutrient limitation and intraspecific competition under lower biomasses and may be a result of niche complementarity. 7719,2006,4,4,The role of Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and carbon sinks in meeting climate objectives,When conducting a multi-gas analysis| there are distinct advantages in moving from concentrations to radiative forcing. With the former| it is customary to use Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for making tradeoffs among greenhouse gases. A number of studies have shown the arbitrariness of this approach and have argued that tradeoffis should be based on the contribution of each gas to achieving a particular target.(1) Focusing on radiative forcing bypasses the need to rely on GWPs and provides for tradeoffs among gases based on their relative value. 7714,2006,3,3,The role of Non-CO2 greenhouse gases in climate change mitigation: Long-term scenarios for the 21st century,The non-CO2 greenhouse gases have so far jointly contributed around 40 percent to overall global warming. In this paper we examine the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in meeting long-term climate change targets. For this purpose| we develop climate mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving long-term stabilization of global radiative forcing. We use the MESSAGE model for a thorough bottom-up representation of the six Kyoto greenhouse gases and corresponding mitigation technologies. This approach endogenizes energy feedback effects from mitigation of non-CO2 gases and takes into account the interplay and side benefits that exist across GHGs. We analyze two mitigation scenarios that stabilize global radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m(2) as compared to pre-industrial times-one allowing only for CO2 mitigation and another with multigas mitigation. In addition| we also investigate a lower stabilization level of 3 W/m(2) and look into the implications this has for abatement strategies. Our approach helps us to identify a portfolio of measures in the energy| industry and agricultural sectors for achieving a proposed climate target. We find that considering the full basket of GHGs improves the effectiveness of the mitigation portfolio resulting in significantly lower costs| especially in the short term. In the long run| the bulk of the emissions reductions are still found to come from CO2 and this effect becomes more pronounced under the more stringent climate target. This emphasizes the importance of a diverse mitigation portfolio that includes both CO2 and non-CO2 related abatement options in meeting long-term climate targets. 7352,2006,2,3,The role of zooxanthellae in the thermal tolerance of corals: a 'nugget of hope' for coral reefs in an era of climate change,The ability of coral reefs to survive the projected increases in temperature due to global warming will depend largely on the ability of corals to adapt or acclimatize to increased temperature extremes over the next few decades. Many coral species are highly sensitive to temperature stress and the number of stress (bleaching) episodes has increased in recent decades. We investigated the acclimatization potential of Acropora millepora| a common and widespread Indo-Pacific hard coral species| through transplantation and experimental manipulation. We show that adult corals| at least in some circumstances| are capable of acquiring increased thermal tolerance and that the increased tolerance is a direct result of a change in the symbiont type dominating their tissues from Symbiodinium type C to D. Our data suggest that the change in symbiont type in our experiment was due to a shuffling of existing types already present in coral tissues| not through exogenous uptake from the environment. The level of increased tolerance gained by the corals changing their dominant symbiont type to D (the most thermally resistant type known) is around 1-1.5 degrees C. This is the first study to show that thermal acclimatization is causally related to symbiont type and provides new insight into the ecological advantage of corals harbouring mixed algal populations. While this increase is of huge ecological significance for many coral species| in the absence of other mechanisms of thermal acclimatization/adaptation| it may not be sufficient to survive climate change under predicted sea surface temperature scenarios over the next 100 years. However| it may be enough to 'buy time' while greenhouse reduction measures are put in place. 7631,2006,2,4,The satellite-derived distribution of chlorophyll-a and its relation to ice cover| radiation and sea surface temperature in the Barents Sea,The response of oceanic phytoplankton to climate forcing in the Arctic Ocean has attracted increasing attention due to its special geographical position and potential susceptibility to global warming. Here| we examine the relationship between satellite-derived (sea-viewing wide field-of-view sensor| SeaWiFS) surface chlorophyll-a (CHL) distribution and climatic conditions in the Barents Sea (30-35 degrees E| 70-80 degrees N) for the period 1998-2002. We separately examined the regions north and south of the Polar Front (similar to 76 degrees N). Although field data are rather limited| the satellite CHL distribution was generally consistent with cruise observations. The temporal and spatial distribution of CHL was strongly influenced by the light regime| mixed layer depth| wind speed and ice cover. Maximum CHL values were found in the marginal sea-ice zone (72-73 degrees N) and not in the ice-free region further south (70-71 degrees N). This indicates that melt-water is an important contributor to higher CHL production. The vernal phytoplankton bloom generally started in late March| reaching its peak in late April. A second| smaller CHL peak occurred regularly in late summer (September). Of the 5 years| 2002 had the highest CHL production in the southern region| likely due to earlier ice melting and stronger solar irradiance in spring and summer. 7248,2006,2,4,The structure of genetic diversity in Engelmann spruce and a comparison with blue spruce,Genetic diversity and genetic structure in Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.) were interpreted with respect to the effects of glacial and interglacial displacement and compared with patterns in blue spruce (Picea pungens Engelm.)| which occupies a range well south of the last glacial front. On average| Engelmann spruce populations were polymorphic at 80% of 24 isozyme loci| with 2.4 alleles per locus and expected heterozygosity of 0.255. The respective means for four populations of blue spruce were 42.7%| 1.6 alleles| and 0.138. Of total diversity| 14.7% was among populations in Engelmann spruce and 8.6% in blue spruce. In Engelmann spruce| numbers of alleles increased from south to north. Recent bottlenecks were indicated in the three southernmost populations of Engelmann spruce and in the northernmost population of blue spruce. Cluster analysis divided Engelmann spruce into a northern group and a Southwestern group; however| populations from Utah were distributed among both clusters. Genetic distance was correlated with geographic distance between northern populations but not between Southwestern populations| where drift predominated over gene flow. In two Engelmann spruce populations from Utah| multilocus outcrossing rates were 0.951 (+/- 0.016) and 0.940 (+/- 0.071). At Flys Peak| Arizona| the southernmost location of Engelmann spruce| outcrossing was also high| 0.899 (+/- 0.017). Thus| inbreeding coefficients observed for parental (-0.104 to 0.047) and filial (0.011 to 0.026) generations were low. Although Engelmann spruce seemed genetically robust| the evidence of bottlenecks in the southern extreme of its range suggested future problems in an era of global warming. 7369,2006,2,4,The temperature dependence of organic-matter decomposition - still a topic of debate,The temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition is of considerable ecosphysiological importance| especially in the context of possible climate-change feedback effects. It effectively controls whether| or how much| carbon will be released with global warming| and to what extent that release of carbon constitutes a dangerous positive feedback effect that leads to further warming. The present paper is an invited contribution in a series of Citation Classics based on a review paper of the temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition that was published in 1995. It discusses the context and main findings of the 1995 study| the progress has been made since then and what issues still remain unresolved. Despite the continuation of much further experimental work and repeated publication of summary articles| there is still no scientific consensus on the temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition. It is likely that this lack of consensus is largely due to different studies referring to different experimental conditions where confounding factors play a greater or lesser role. Substrate availability is particularly important. If it changes during the course of measurements| it can greatly confound the derived apparent temperature dependence. This confounding effect is illustrated through simulations and examples of experimental work drawn from the literature. The paper speculates that much of the current disagreement between studies might disappear if different studies would ensure that they are all studying the same system attributes| and if confounding factors were always considered and| if possible| eliminated. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7589,2006,2,4,The temperature features for different ventilated-duct embankments with adjustable shutters in the Qinghai-Tibet railway,Considering the global warming and the temperature difference between the sunny slope and the shading slope of the embankment in the Qinghai-Tibet railway| the cooling effects for different ventilated-duct embankments with adjustable shutters on the permafrost are studied with 3-D numerical simulations. The numerical results indicated that their temperature fields have distinct difference; the permafrost tables under the adjustable ventilated-duct embankments are raised and the thaw bulbs are degenerated gradually; they are able to ensure the thermal stability of the permafrost under the scenario of climatic warming but the ordinary embankment is not. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7626,2006,2,4,The thinning and retreat of Parteglaciaren| northern Sweden| during the twentieth century and its relation to climate,Parteglaciaren in northern Sweden has a response time of similar to 200 years| demonstrating a long response time for a continentally located glacier. Paeteglaciaren is a polythermal valley glacier presently covering an area of 10 km(2). Its size will be reduced another 60-70% if the present climate persists and will then only have similar to 30% of its Little Ice Age maximum volume left. Future global warming will of course enhance melt rates| and the relative size and volume reduction will probably be even larger. Photogrammetric studies between 1963 and 1992 show a general thinning of the entire glacier except for the center one of the three cirques in the accumulation area| which seems to have a surface elevation in balance with present climate. Balanced flow studies performed using GPS and Ground Penetrating Radar at the outlet of the cirques gave negative values for two cirques and a positive value for the center cirque. The future Parteglaciaren will split up into three small glaciers| and only the center one will extend beyond its cirque. 7531,2006,2,2,The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium,Twentieth-century warming could lead to increases in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere| altering the hydrological cycle and the characteristics of precipitation(1). Such changes in the global rate and distribution of precipitation may have a greater direct effect on human well-being and ecosystem dynamics than changes in temperature itself(2|3). Despite the co-variability of both of these climate variables(3)| attention in long-term climate reconstruction has mainly concentrated on temperature changes(4-8). Here we present an annually resolved oxygen isotope record from tree-rings| providing a millennial-scale reconstruction of precipitation variability in the high mountains of northern Pakistan. The climatic signal originates mainly from winter precipitation| and is robust over ecologically different sites. Centennial-scale variations reveal dry conditions at the beginning of the past millennium and through the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries| with precipitation increasing during the late nineteenth and the twentieth centuries to yield the wettest conditions of the past 1|000 years. Comparison with other long-term precipitation reconstructions indicates a large-scale intensification of the hydrological cycle coincident with the onset of industrialization and global warming| and the unprecedented amplitude argues for a human role. 1733,2006,4,4,The use of genetic algorithms and Bayesian classification to model species distributions,This paper develops a method to model species' spatial distributions from environmental variables. The method is based on a search for an optimal identification of environmental niches to match observed species presence/absence data. The identification is based on Bayesian classification and the optimisation is based on a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The algorithm is tested on an artificial "species" and is shown to perform well. We apply the approach to a random sample of 100 plant species native to the British Isles. This enables an identification of the environmental variables that are most important for capturing the species' spatial distribution. We show that both climate and land use variables are important for modelling the spatial distribution patterns of the sampled species. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7697,2006,3,4,The use of life cycle assessment to compare the environmental impact of production and feeding of conventional and genetically modified maize for broiler production in Argentina,The paper presents the methods and results of a life-cycle assessment (LCA) applied to the production of maize grain from a conventional variety compared with maize grain from a variety genetically modified to be herbicide tolerant and insect protected and to contain an enhanced oil and lysine content| and its impact when fed to broiler chickens. The findings show that there are both environmental and human health benefits of growing GM maize including lower impacts on global warming| ozone depletion| freshwater ecotoxicity and human toxicity. However| when considered in terms of the use of maize as a feed input to broiler chicken production| the benefits of the GM alternative become negligible compared to the use of conventional maize. 7482,2006,4,4,The variance of sea surface temperature and projected changes with global warming,Based on the surface energy budget| the sea surface temperature (SST) variance is related to the product of three factors: the sum of the variances of surface radiative and turbulent energy fluxes and of ocean heat transport| an efficiency factor depending on the covariances among them| and a transfer factor involving the persistence of surface temperature via its lagged autocorrelation. These quantities are analyzed for current climate conditions based on results from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and a simulation with the CCCma coupled climate model. Potential changes with climate change are considered based on two quasi-equilibrium climate change integrations for which the forcing has been stabilized at years 2050 and 2100 values of the IS92a forcing scenario. The surface energy fluxes| which contribute to the variance of SST| are similar in the modelled and reanalyzed atmosphere but modelled temperature variance is conditioned on the thickness of the upper ocean model layer. Changes of SST variance with global warming show broad scale patterns with decreases in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and the northern extra-tropical Pacific| and increases in both the sub-tropical Pacific and mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic. The changes in SST variance are not associated only with changes in the variances of surface energy fluxes/transports but also with changes in the covariances among them and by changes in the temperature autocorrelation structure. 7637,2006,2,4,The West Nile Virus outbreak in Israel (2000) from a new perspective: The regional impact of climate change,The West Nile Virus (WNV) outbreak in Israel in 2000 appeared after medical and climatic warning signs. Re-analysis of the epidemic from a new viewpoint| the regional impact of global warming| especially the worsening in the summers' heat conditions| is presented. The disease appeared averagely at a lag of 3-9 weeks ( strongest correlation lag of 7 weeks). The minimum temperature was found as the most important climatic factor that encourages the disease earlier appearance. Extreme heat is more significant than high air humidity for increasing WNV cases. An early extreme rise in the summer temperature could be a good indicator of increased vector populations. While 93.5% of cases were in the metropolitan areas| the disease was not reported in the sub-arid regions. The outbreak development was comparable to the cases from Romania ( 1996) and NYC ( 1999). Each of those epidemics appeared after a long heatwave. 7281,2006,3,4,Thermal effect on polyethyleneoxide-containing copolyimide membranes for CO2/N-2 separation,Recovery of CO2 from gas mixtures is an important industrial objective in view of several aspects such as natural gas reforming| biomedical applications and even global warming. Polyimides consisting of flexible polyethyleneoxide (PEO) segments and rigid polyimide segments have been reported in recent years for this application. They exhibit high CO2 permeability coefficients and relatively high CO2/N-2 selectivity due to CO2 strong affinity to the polar PEO segments. In this work a set of copolyimides with different contents of PEO have been prepared from 3|3'|4|4'-biphenyltetracarboxylic dianhydride| oxydianiline (ODA) and a diamine containing the PEO fragment. ODA-PEO ratios (w:w) used to prepare the polymers were 1: 1| 1:2| 1:4 and 1:6. Preliminary permeability measurements established that the membrane with the ODA-PEO ratio (w:w) 1:2| which exhibited permeabilities of 23.87 and 0.39 Barrers| for CO2 and N-2 respectively| showed the highest ideal selectivity of CO2 over N-2 (61.20) when compared to the other members of the series. The thermal treatment of this membrane was carried out in an oven heated at 200 degrees C| 250 degrees C and 300 degrees C. The heating at 200 degrees C caused a large increase in N2 and CO2 permeability coefficients (1.05 and 57.25 Barrers respectively) which resulted in a slight decrease of the selectivity. It should be mentioned that while the permeability of CO2 increased considerably (similar to 300%)| the selectivity just suffered a small drop (similar to 10%)| and hence| the productivity of this membrane is much better after the thermal treatment. Thermal treatment of the membrane above 200 degrees C produced successive increments on the permeability coefficients of both gases| while ideal selectivity was maintained. 7328,2006,2,4,Thermodynamic and hydrological impacts of increasing greenness in northern high latitudes,Satellite remote sensing data indicate that greenness has been increasing in the northern high latitudes| apparently in response to the warming of recent decades. To identify feedbacks of this land-cover change to the atmosphere| the authors employed the atmospheric general circulation model ARPEGE-CLIMAT| an adaptation of the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle model for climate studies| to conduct a set of control and sensitivity modeling experiments. In the sensitivity experiments| they increased the greenness poleward of 60 degrees N by 20% to mimic the manifestation of vegetation changes in the real world| and by 60% and 100% to represent potential aggressive vegetation change scenarios under global warming. In view of the direct exposure of vegetation to sunlight during the warm seasons| the authors focused their study on the results from late spring to early fall. The results revealed significant thermodynamic and hydrological impacts of the increased greenness in northern high latitudes| resulting in a warmer and wetter atmosphere. Surface and lower-tropospheric air temperature showed a marked increase| with a warming of 1 degrees-2 degrees C during much of the year when greenness is increased by 100%. Precipitation and evaporation also showed a notable increase of 10% during the summer. Snow cover decreased throughout the year| with a maximum reduction in the spring and early summer. The above changes are attributable to the following physical mechanisms: 1) increased net surface solar radiation due to a decreased surface albedo and enhanced snow-albedo feedback as a result of increased greenness; 2) intensified vegetative transpiration by the additional plant cover; and 3) reduced atmospheric stability leading to enhanced convective activity. The results imply that increased greenness is a potentially significant contributing factor to the amplified polar effects of global warming. 7245,2006,4,3,Timing of global warming in IPCC AR4 AOGCM simulations,Spatio-temporal features are considered of statistically significant stable change of surface air temperature obtained from 20th and 21st century simulations using a 17-member ensemble of global climate models forced with evolving green house gas and sulfate aerosol atmospheric concentrations. The analysis shows that the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific| on the one hand| and the northern North Atlantic and Southern Ocean| on the other hand| stand out as the most contrasting features of the ensemble mean timing distribution. The former are characterized by the earliest warming| while the latter demonstrate latest or not achieved stable changes of the temperature. Qualitative agreement between the model- and observationally derived global pictures of the stable change timing offers an opportunity to test model performance in reproducing the forced climate evolution. An illustration is given of the model performance evaluation based on the test application. 1737,2006,2,4,Top-down herbivory and bottom-up El Nino effects on Galapagos rocky-shore communities,We evaluated the effects of marine iguanas| sally lightfoot crabs| and fish on rocky-shore sessile organisms at two sites at Santa Cruz Island| Galapagos Islands| Ecuador| for 3-5 years during and after the 1997-1998 El Nino| using exclusion cages to separate the effects. Plots exposed to natural grazing were dominated either by encrusting algae or by red algal turf and articulated corallines. Algae fluctuated in response to El Nino in the following way. During an early phase| crustose Gymnogongrus and/or red algal turf were dominant. In the heart of El Nino| grazers had limited effects on algal cover but influenced algal sizes substantially. Most algae (particularly edible forms) were scarce or declined| although warm-water ephemeral species (notably Giffordia mitchelliae) flourished| increasing diversity and overgrowing crusts. Iguana mortalities were high| and crab densities low. When normal conditions returned| warm-water ephemerals declined| crab densities rose| and grazers had significant but site-specific effects on algae. At one site| any combination of grazers diminished most erect species| reducing diversity and restoring dominance of competitively inferior grazer-resistant crusts. At a second site| only the combined effect of all grazers had this effect. Laboratory experiments confirmed that crabs could control erect algae and promote crustose forms| and crustose Gymnogongrus developed into an erect form in the absence of crabs. Differences between sites and large-scale temporal changes associated with El Nino indicate that tropical shores are not all as constant in time and space as previously suggested. Mobile grazers did affect algal communities| but over the period of our observations far greater effects were attributable to intersite differences and temporal shifts in oceanographic conditions. El Nino events reduce nutrients| intensify wave action| and raise sea levels| affecting food availability for intertidal herbivores and their influence on benthic algae. Thus| the dramatic transformations of communities during El Nino presage the impacts of global climate change. 7585,2006,3,3,Total toxicity equivalents emissions of SF6| CHF3| andCCl(2)F(2)decomposed in a RF plasma environment,Sulfur hexafluorine compound (SF6)| trifluoromethane (CHF3) and diclorodifluoromethane (CCl2F2) are extensively used in the semiconductor industry. They are global warming gases. Most studies have addressed the effective decomposition of fluorine compounds| rather than the toxicity of decomposed by-products. Hence| the concepts of toxicity equivalents (TEQs) were applied in this work. The results indicated that HF and SiF4 were the two greatest contributors of TEQ to the SF6/H-2/Ar plasma system| while F-2 and SiF4 were the two greatest contributors to the SF6/O-2/Ar system. Additionally| SiF4 and HF were the two greatest contributors of TEQ to both the CHF3/H-2/Ar and CHF3/O-2/Ar plasma systems. HF and HCl were the two greatest contributors of TEQ to the CCl2F2/H-2/Ar plasma system| and Cl-2 and COCl2 were the two greatest contributors to the CCl2F2/O-2/Ar system. HCl and HF can be recovered using wet scrubbing| which reduces the toxicity of these emission gases. Consequently| the hydrogen-based plasma system was a better alternative for treating gases that contained SF6| CHF3 and CCl2F2 from the TEQs point of view. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7521,2006,2,3,Toward a seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean: Scenarios from the IPCC AR4 model simulations,The sea ice simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models for the climate of the twentieth century and for global warming scenarios have been synthesized. A large number of model simulations realistically captured the climatological annual mean| seasonal cycle| and temporal trends of sea ice area over the Northern Hemisphere during 1979-99| although there is considerable scatter among the models. In particular| multimodel ensemble means show promising estimates very close to observations for the late twentieth century. Model projections for the twenty-first century demonstrate the largest sea ice area decreases generally in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario| indicating large multimodel ensemble mean reductions of -3.54 +/- 1.66 X 10(5) km(2) decade(-1) in A1B| -4.08 +/- 1.33 X 10(5) km(2) decade(-1) in A2| and -2.22 +/- 1.11 X 10(5) km(2) decade(-1) in B1. The corresponding percentage reductions are 31.1%| 33.4%| and 21.6% in the last 20 yr of the twenty-first century| relative to 1979-99. Furthermore| multiyear ice coverage decreases rapidly at rates of -3.86 +/- 2.07 X 10(5) km(2) decade(-1) in A1B| -4.94 +/- 1.91 X 10(5) km(2) decade(-1) in A2| and -2.67 +/- 1.7107 X 10(5) km(2) decade(-1) in B1| making major contributions to the total ice reductions. In contrast| seasonal (first year) ice area increases by 1.10 +/- 2.46 X 10(5) km(2) decade(-1)| 1.99 +/- 1.47 X 10(5) km(2) decade(-1)| and 1.05 +/- 1.9247 X 10(5) km(5) decade(-1) in the same scenarios| leading to decreases of 59.7%| 65.0%| and 45.8% of the multiyear ice area| and increases of 14.1%| 27.8%| and 11.2% of the seasonal ice area in the last 20 yr of this century. Statistical analysis shows that many of the models are consistent in the sea ice change projections among all scenarios. The results include an evaluation of the 99% confidence interval of the model-derived change of sea ice coverage| giving a quantification of uncertainties in estimating sea ice changes based on the participating models. Hence| the seasonal cycle of sea ice area is amplified and an increased large portion of seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean is expected at the end of the twenty-first century. The very different changes of multiyear and seasonal ice may have significant implications for the polar energy and hydrological budgets and pathways. 1656,2006,4,4,Toward synthesis of relationships among leaf longevity| instantaneous photosynthetic rate| lifetime leaf carbon gain| and the gross primary production of forests,The assimilation of carbon by plant communities (gross primary production [GPP]) is a central concern in plant ecology as well as for our understanding of global climate change. As an alternative to traditional methods involving destructive harvests or time-consuming measurements| we present a simple| general model for GPP as the product of the lifetime carbon gain by a single leaf| the daily leaf production rate| and the length of the favorable period for photosynthesis. To test the model| we estimated leaf lifetime carbon gain for 26 species using the concept of mean labor time for leaves (the part of each day the leaf functions to full capacity)| average potential photosynthetic capacity over the leaf lifetime| and functional leaf longevity (leaf longevity discounted for periods within a year wholly unfavorable for photosynthesis). We found that the lifetime carbon gain of leaves was rather constant across species. Moreover| when foliar biomass was regressed against functional leaf longevity| aseasonal and seasonal forests fell on a single line| suggesting that the leaf production rate during favorable periods is not substantially different among forests in the world. The gross production of forest ecosystems then can be predicted to a first approximation simply by the annual duration of the period favorable for photosynthetic activity in any given region. 7283,2006,2,3,Towards a more saline North Atlantic and a fresher Arctic under global warming,Most atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations predict enhanced atmospheric moisture transports to the high northern latitudes. Together with melting of Arctic sea ice and glaciers| this has led to the expectation of a gradual freshening of the northern North Atlantic| tending to reduce the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here a multi-member greenhouse gas GCM experiment is used to demonstrate that both the salinity in the North Atlantic and the inflow of Atlantic Water to the Nordic Seas may increase despite a strong freshening of the Arctic Ocean and a reduced AMOC. 7412,2006,4,3,Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change,Ensembles of coupled atmosphere-ocean global circulation model simulations are required to make probabilistic predictions of future climate change. "Perturbed physics" ensembles provide a new approach in which modelling uncertainties are sampled systematically by perturbing uncertain parameters. The aim is to provide a basis for probabilistic predictions in which the impact of prior assumptions and observational constraints can be clearly distinguished. Here we report on the first perturbed physics coupled atmosphere-ocean model ensemble in which poorly constrained atmosphere| land and sea-ice component parameters are varied in the third version of the Hadley Centre model (the variation of ocean parameters will be the subject of future study). Flux adjustments are employed| both to reduce regional sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity biases and also to admit the use of combinations of model parameter values which give non-zero values for the global radiation balance. This improves the extent to which the ensemble provides a credible basis for the quantification of uncertainties in climate change| especially at a regional level. However| this particular implementation of flux-adjustments leads to a weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation| resulting in the development of biases in SST and sea ice in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Nevertheless| model versions are produced which are of similar quality to the unperturbed and un-flux-adjusted version. The ensemble is used to simulate pre-industrial conditions and a simple scenario of a 1% per year compounded increase in CO2. The range of transient climate response (the 20 year averaged global warming at the time of CO2 doubling) is 1.5-2.6 degrees C. similar to that found in multi-model studies. Measures of global and large scale climate change from the coupled models show simple relationships with associated measures computed from atmosphere-mixed-layer-ocean climate change experiments| suggesting that recent advances in computing the probability density function of climate change under equilibrium conditions using the perturbed physics approach may be extended to the transient case. 7272,2006,3,3,Trade liberalisation and greenhouse gas emissions: the case of dairying in the European Union and New Zealand,The link between trade and the environment has aroused considerable interest both in terms of the impact of trade liberalisation on the environment| and also the impact of environmental policy on production and trade. Of key environmental concern at present is global warming and its association with greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture is a sector of the economy that both contributes to| and will be affected by| climate change. This paper models the impact of agricultural trade liberalisation on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture around the world| focusing particularly on the effects on New Zealand| a small economy highly dependent on agricultural trade. A partial equilibrium agricultural multicountry| multicommodity trade model is used for the analysis| extended to include physical production systems and their greenhouse gas emissions. Two simulations are performed: removal of agricultural policies in the EU and in all OECD countries. The results indicate that although producer returns in New Zealand increase| greenhouse gas emissions also increase significantly. EU producers face lower returns but also lower greenhouse gas emissions. 7461,2006,4,1,Transient climate simulations with the HadGEM1 climate model: Causes of past warming and future climate change,The ability of climate models to simulate large-scale temperature changes during the twentieth century when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings and their inability to account for warming over the last 50 yr when they exclude increasing greenhouse gas concentrations has been used as evidence for an anthropogenic influence on global warming. One criticism of the models used in many of these studies is that they exclude some forcings of potential importance| notably from fossil fuel black carbon| biomass smoke| and land use changes. Herein transient simulations with a new model| the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 1 (HadGEM1)| are described| which include these forcings in addition to other anthropogenic and natural forcings| and a fully interactive treatment of atmospheric sulfur and its effects on clouds. These new simulations support previous work by showing that there was a significant anthropogenic influence on near-surface temperature change over the last century. They demonstrate that black carbon and land use changes are relatively unimportant for explaining global mean near-surface temperature changes. The pattern of warming in the troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere that has been observed in radiosonde data since 1958 can only be reproduced when the model includes anthropogenic forcings. However| there are some discrepancies between the model simulations and radiosonde data| which are largest where observational uncertainty is greatest in the Tropics and high latitudes. Predictions of future warming have also been made using the new model. Twenty-first-century warming rates| following policy-relevant emissions scenarios| are slightly greater in HadGEM1 than in the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3) as a result of the extra forcing in HadGEM1. An experiment in which greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings are stabilized at 2100 levels and held constant until 2200 predicts a committed twenty-second-century warming of less than 1 K| whose spatial distribution resembles that of warming during the twenty-first century| implying that the local feedbacks that determine the pattern of warming do not change significantly. 1746,2006,5,4,Tropical Atlantic SST history inferred from Ca isotope thermometry over the last 140ka,Exploring the potentials of new methods in palaeothermometry is essential to improve our understanding of past climate change. Here| we present a refinement of the published delta(44/40)Ca-temperature calibration investigating modern specimens of planktonic forarninifera Globigerinoides sacculifer and apply this to sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions over the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Reproduced measurements of modern G. sacculifer collected from surface waters describe a linear relationship for the investigated temperature range (19.0-28.5 degrees C): delta(44/40)Ca[parts per thousand] = 0.22 (+/- 0.05)*SST [degrees C] -4.88. Thus a change of delta(44/40) Ca[parts per thousand] of 0.22 (+/- 0.05) corresponds to a relative change of 1 degrees C. The refined delta(44/40) Ca-modern-calibration allows the determination of both relative temperature changes and absolute temperatures in the past. This delta(44/40)Ca(modern)-calibration for G. sacculifer has been applied to the tropical East Atlantic sediment core GeoB1112 for which other SST proxy data are available. Comparison of the different data sets gives no indication for significant secondary overprinting of the delta(44/40)Ca signal. Long-term trends in reconstructed SST correlate strongly with temperature records derived from oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios supporting the methods validity. The observed change of SST of approximately 3 degrees C at the Holocene-last glacial maximum transition reveals additional evidence for the important role of the tropical Atlantic in triggering global climate change| based on a new independent palaeothermometer. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 7541,2006,2,3,Tropical cyclone climatology in a global-warming climate as simulated in a 20 km-mesh global atmospheric model: Frequency and wind intensity analyses,Possible changes in the tropical cyclones in a future| greenhouse-warmed climate are investigated using a 20 km-mesh| high-resolution| global atmospheric model of MRI/JMA| with the analyses focused on the evaluation of the frequency and wind intensity. Two types of 10-year climate experiments are conducted. One is a present-day climate experiment| and the other is a greenhouse-warmed climate experiment| with a forcing of higher sea surface temperature and increased greenhouse-gas concentration. A comparison of the experiments suggests that the tropical cyclone frequency in the warm-climate experiment is globally reduced by about 30% (but increased in the North Atlantic) compared to the present-day-climate experiment. Furthermore| the number of intense tropical cyclones increases. The maximum surface wind speed for the most intense tropical cyclone generally increases under the greenhouse-warmed condition (by 7.3 m s(-1) in the Northern Hemisphere and by 3.3 m s(-1) in the Southern Hemisphere). On average| these findings suggest the possibility of higher risks of more devastating tropical cyclones across the globe in a future greenhouse-warmed climate. 7535,2006,2,2,Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations,Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty| we find a number of measures| both global and local| on which reasonable agreement is obtained| notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones| with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones| a step in a hypothesized causal path leading to precipitation changes. A measure of local intermodel agreement on significant trends indicates consistent predictions for particular regions. Observed rainfall trends in several data sets show a significant summer drying trend in a main region of intermodel agreement: the Caribbean/Central-American region. 7423,2006,4,4,Tropical forests are both evolutionary cradles and museums of leaf beetle diversity,The high extant species diversity of tropical lineages of organisms is usually portrayed as a relatively recent and rapid development or as a consequence of the gradual accumulation or preservation of species over time. These explanations have led to alternative views of tropical forests as evolutionary "cradles" or "museums" of diversity| depending on the organisms under study. However| biogeographic and fossil evidence implies that the evolutionary histories of diversification among tropical organisms may be expected to exhibit characteristics of both cradle and museum models. This possibility has not been explored in detail for any group of terrestrial tropical organisms. From an extensively sampled molecular phylogeny of herbivorous Neotropical leaf beetles in the genus Cephaloleia| we present evidence for (i) comparatively ancient Paleocene-Eocene adaptive radiation associated with global warming and Cenozoic maximum global temperatures| (it) moderately ancient lineage-specific diversification coincident with the Oligocene adaptive radiation of Cephaloleia host plants in the genus Heliconia| and (iii) relatively recent Miocene-Pliocene diversification coincident with the collision of the Panama arc with South America and subsequent bridging of the Isthmus of Panama. These results demonstrate that| for Cephaloleia and perhaps other lineages of organisms| tropical forests are at the same time both evolutionary cradles and museums of diversity. 7440,2006,4,4,Tropospheric lapse rate and its relation to surface temperature from reanalysis data,Estimates of the tropospheric lapse rate gamma and analysis of its relation to the surface temperature T (s) in the annual cycle and interannual variability have been made using the global monthly mean data of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1948-2001). The tropospheric lapse rate gamma is about 6.1 K/km in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as a whole and over the ocean and about 6.2 K/km over the continents. The value of gamma decreases from 6.5 K/km at low latitudes to 4.5 K/km at polar latitudes. The values of d gamma/dT (s)| the parameter of sensitivity of gamma to the variation of T-s for the NH in the interannual variability| are found to be about 0.04 km(-1) (0.041 km(-1) for the NH as a whole| 0.042 km(-1) over the ocean| and 0.038 km(-1) over the continents). This corresponds to an increase in gamma of approximately 0.7% when the surface temperature of the NH is increased by 1 K. Estimates of d gamma/dT (s) vary from about 0.05 km(-1) in the subtropics to 0.10 km(-1) at polar latitudes. When d gamma/dT (s) is positive| the surface and tropospheric warming means a temperature decrease above a certain critical level H (cr). The height of the level H (cr) with constant temperature| which is defined by the inverse value (d gamma/dT (s))(-1)| is about 25 km for the NH as a whole| i.e.| above the tropopause. In the subtropics| H (cr) is about 20 km. At polar latitudes| H (cr) decreases to about 10 km. Positive values of d gamma/dT (s) characterize a positive climatic feedback through the lapse rate and indicate a general decrease in the static stability of the troposphere during global warming. Along with a general tendency of gamma to increase with rising T (s)| there are regional regimes with the opposite tendency| mainly over the ocean. The negative correlation of gamma with T (s) is found over the oceanic tropics and midlatitudes| in particular| over the oceanic belt around Antarctica. 7527,2006,2,4,U-series dating of dead Porites corals in the South China sea: Evidence for episodic coral mortality over the past two centuries,High-precision (up to +/- 1-2 years) U-series dating of dead in situ massive Porites corals on the reef flats of Yongshu and Meiji Reefs| Nansha area| southern South China Sea reveals that mortality of these massive corals occurred many times over the past two centuries| many of which appear to correlate in time with historic El Nino events. Despite different habitats of corals| at least six mortality events occurred simultaneously on both reefs (e.g. in 1869-1873| 1917-1920| 1957-1961| 1971| 1982-1983 and 1999-2000 AD)| reflecting the occurrence of large-scale regional events. We speculate that many of such mortality events| especially those dated at 1998-2000| 1991| 1982-1983| 1971| and 1957-1958 AD with an overall uncertainty of +/- 1-2 years| are probably due to high temperature bleaching during El Nino years (e.g. 1997-1998| 1991-1992| 1982-1983| 1972-1973 and 1957-1959 AD). This study demonstrates that individual colonies of massive corals have died at different times over the past two centuries and mass spectrometric U-series dating of very young corals with a precision of up to +/- 1-2 years is likely to become a powerful tool for reconstruction of past coral mortality history and investigation of global warming and coral bleaching. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1763,2006,2,2,Uncertainties of climate change in arid environments of Central Asia,This article examines the key uncertainties of climate change in the Central Asian republics of the former USSR-a vast arid region arid a classic example of complex and poorly understood interactions between the regional responses to global climate change and the local human-induced desertification. Based on paleoanalogous scenarios| Central Asian deserts are often predicted to become wetter as a result of global warming because they are located north of 30 degrees latitude. However despite some similarities between the paleoclimate changes and greenhouse warming| such predictions have very serious limitations. Climate models predict that the temperature in and Central Asia will increase by 1-2 degrees C by 2030-2050| with the greatest increases in wintertime. Some models project greater aridity in the future though others project less aridity| and it is becoming increasingly apparent that climate change modeling in arid zones is extremely uncertain because of the extreme natural variability (both temporal and spatial) of the desert climate. The physical differences of climate change forcings imply that one might expect quite different regional responses to future human-induced climate change compared to the Holocene climate in terms of their rapidity and amplitude. Local and regional human impacts| such as massive irrigation| may have a stronger impact on the climatic system at the regional level than global climate change. 7703,2006,2,4,Unexpected biodiversity loss under global warming in the neotropical Guayana Highlands: a preliminary appraisal,The fully vegetated summits of the table mountains that form the Guayana Highlands (GH)| in northern South America| hold amazing biodiversity and endemism levels| and unique vegetation types. In spite of their present-day healthy appearance| their biota is seriously threatened of habitat loss by upward displacement| because of the projected warming for the end of this century. Available data are still insufficient for a definite assessment| but preliminary estimations based on representative endemic vascular plant species show that roughly one-tenth to one-third of them would loss their habitat with the 2-4 degrees C temperature increase predicted for the region by AD 2100. Given the underlying endemism| the eventual loss of biodiversity will be of global nature. Other mountain ranges around the world with similar characteristics of the GH| namely topographical isolation| high endemism and absence of nival stage because of the lower altitude| would be under similar unexpected risk| and should be urgently considered for conservation purposes. 7387,2006,2,4,Updating rainfall IDF relationships to maintain urban drainage design standards,The hydrologic design standards for urban drainage systems are commonly based on the frequency of occurrence of heavy rainfall events. Observations of recent climate history indicate that the frequency of occurrence of heavy rainfall events is increasing. This increasing trend will likely continue in the future due to global warming. In this study| extending from previous analysis results for Chicago| the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships were determined to represent the climate conditions of the first and second halves of the last century. Using these IDF relationships| the impact of the observed increase in heavy rainfall events on the design and performance of urban drainage systems were quantified. This quantification demonstrated the need for updating rainfall IDF relationships to reflect changing climate conditions. In the design of new and retrofitting or replacement of old urban drainage systems| up to date IDF relationships need to be used to maintain design standards. 7428,2006,3,3,Use of on-farm produced biofuels on organic farms - Evaluation of energy balances and environmental loads for three possible fuels,The aim of this work was to evaluate systems making organic farms self-sufficient in farm-produced bio-based fuels. The energy balance and environmental load for systems based on rape methyl ester (RME)| ethanol and biogas were evaluated using a life cycle perspective. Complete LCAs were not performed. Important constraints when implementing the systems in practice were also identified. The RME scenario showed favourable energy balance and produced valuable by-products but was less positive in some other aspects. The use of land was high and thereby also the emissions associated with cultivation. Emissions| with the exception of CO2| during utilisation of the fuel were high compared to those of the other fuels in the study. The technology for production and use of RME is well known and easy to implement at farm scale. The production of ethanol was energy consuming and the by-products were relatively low value. However| the area needed for cultivation of raw material was low compared to the RME scenario. The production and utilisation of ignition improver and denaturants were associated with considerable emissions. Suitable ethanol production technology is available but is more optimal for large scale systems. The biogas scenario had a low relative need for arable land| which also resulted in smaller soil emissions to air and water. Another advantage was the potential to recycle plant nutrients. On the other hand| the potential emissions of methane from storage of digestate| upgrading of biogas and methane losses during utilisation of fuel produced a negative impact| mainly on global warming. Small scale technology for biogas cleaning and storage is not fully developed and extensive tractor modifications are necessary. The global warming effects of all three systems studied were reduced by 58-72% in comparison to a similar farming system based on diesel fuel. However| the fuel costs were higher for all scenarios studied compared to current diesel prices. In particular| the large costs for seasonal storage of gas meant that the biogas scenario described is currently not financially viable. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7269,2006,2,4,Use of response functions in selecting lodgepole pine populations for future climates,Although growth response functions have previously been developed for lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) populations in British Columbia| new analyses were conducted: (1) to demonstrate the merit of a new local climate model in genecological analysis; (2) to highlight new methods for deriving response functions; and (3) to evaluate the impacts of management options for existing geographically defined seed planning units (SPUs) for reforestation. Results of this study suggest that new methods for anchoring population response functions| and a multivariate approach for incorporating climate variables into a single model| considerably improve the reliability of these functions. These functions identified a small number of populations in central areas of the species distribution with greater growth potential over a wide range of mean annual temperature (MAT). Average productivity of lodgepole pine is predicted to increase (up to 7%) if moderate warming (similar to 2 degrees C MAT) occurs in the next few decades as predicted| although productivity would substantially decline in some SPUs in southern BC. Severe global warming (> 3 degrees C MAT) would result in either a drastic decline in productivity or local populations being extirpated in southern SPUs. New deployment strategies using the best seed sources for future reforestation may not only be able to mitigate the negative impact of global warming| but may even be able to increase productivity in some areas. 7706,2006,2,3,Using ensemble prediction methods to examine regional climate variation under global warming scenarios,The fate of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is of great significance for regional climate prediction. Research based on both numerical modelling and paleoclimate data has suggested that the THC might be intrinsically bistable| and could have the potential to switch rapidly between its stable modes. Using a low-resolution intermediate complexity model| we investigate the predictability of the response of the THC to anthropogenic forcing in the medium (100 years) and longer term. Using an ensemble Kalman filter we can efficiently tune the climate of ensemble members by varying multiple parameters simultaneously| and flux adjustments are not required to prevent unreasonable model drift. However| some biases remain| and we demonstrate that the common approach of subtracting the bias from a model forecast can result in substantial errors when the model state is close to a nonlinear threshold. Over 100 years of 1% per annum atmospheric CO2 enrichment| the THC drops significantly but steadily by about 4 or 5 Sv| a result that appears robust over a wide range of scenarios. In the longer term| the THC can collapse entirely| or recover to its original state| and small changes in the present uncertainties can have a large effect on the future outcomes. We conclude that generating reliable forecasts over the next century should be achievable| but the long term behaviour remains highly unpredictable. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7634,2006,2,4,Using population viability analysis to predict the effects of climate change on the extinction risk of an endangered limestone endemic shrub| Arizona cliffrose,The threat of global warming to rare species is a growing concern| yet few studies have predicted its effects on rare populations. Using demographic data gathered in both drought and nondrought years between 1996-2003 in central Arizona upper Sonoran Desert| we modeled population viability for the federally endangered Purshia subintegra (Kearney) Henrickson (Arizona cliffrose). We used deterministic matrix projection models and stochastic models simulating weather conditions during our study| given historical weather variation and under scenarios of increased aridity. Our models suggest that the P subintegra population in Verde Valley is slowly declining and will be at greater risk of extinction with increased aridity. Across patches at a fine spatial scale| demographic performance was associated with environmental factors. Moist sites (patches with the highest soil moisture| lowest sand content| and most northern aspects) had the highest densities| highest seedling recruitment| and highest risk of extinction over the shortest time span. Extinction risk in moist sites was exacerbated by higher variance in recruitment and mortality. Dry sites had higher cumulative adult survival and lower extinction risk but negative growth rates. Steps necessary for the conservation of the species include introductions at more northern latitudes and in situ manipulations to enhance seedling recruitment and plant survival. We demonstrate that fine spatial-scale modeling is necessary to predict where patches with highest extinction risk or potential refugia for rare species may occur. Because current climate projections for the 21st century imply range shifts at rates of 300 to 500 km/century| which are beyond even exceptional examples of shifts in the fossil record of 100-150 km| it is likely that preservation of many rare species will require human intervention and a long-term commitment. Global warming conditions are likely to reduce the carrying capacity of many rare species' habitats. 1683,2006,2,4,Variation in the sensitivity of organismal body temperature to climate change over local and geographic scales,Global climate change is expected to have broad ecological consequences for species and communities. Attempts to forecast these consequences usually assume that changes in air or water temperature will translate into equivalent changes in a species' organismal body temperature. This simple change is unlikely because an organism's body temperature is determined by a complex series of interactions between the organism and its environment. Using a biophysical model| validated with 5 years of field observations| we examined the relationship between environmental temperature change and body temperature of the intertidal mussel Mytilus califomianus over 1|600 km of its geographic distribution. We found that at all locations examined simulated changes in air or water temperature always produced less than equivalent changes in the daily maximum mussel body temperature. Moreover| the magnitude of body temperature change was highly variable| both within and among locations. A simulated 1 degrees C increase in air or water temperature raised the maximum monthly average of daily body temperature maxima by 0.07-0.92 degrees C| depending on the geographic location| vertical position| and temperature variable. We combined these sensitivities with predicted climate change for 2100 and calculated increases in monthly average maximum body temperature of 0.97-4.12 degrees C| depending on location and climate change scenario. Thus geographic variation in body temperature sensitivity can modulate species' experiences of climate change and must be considered when predicting the biological consequences of climate change. 7530,2006,4,4,Vegetation structure and biodiversity along the eucalypt forest to rainforest continuum on the serpentinite soil catena in a subhumid area of Central Queensland| Australia,The deep lateritic earths that cap the serpentinite outcrop in the Rockhampton - Marlborough area on the Tropic of Capricorn in Central Queensland have been eroded to expose the underlying ultramafic rock. Water-holding capacity of these nutrient-poor soils increases in a gradient from the skeletal soils to the deep lateritic earths and results in a continuum of structural formations from open-woodland to woodland to open-forest. A couple of closed-forest (rainforest) stands have developed where seepage into Marlborough Creek occurs throughout the year. Aerodynamic fluxes (frictional| thermal and evaporative) in the atmosphere as it flows over and through the vegetation influence the annual foliage growth in all strata in the continuum from skeletal soils to deep lateritic earths. The lateral growth of each plant is abraded so that the sum of the foliage projective covers of overstorey (FPCo) and understorey (FPCu) strata - that is Sigma(FPCo + FPCu) - remains constant throughout the serpentinite soil catena. As more water becomes available in the soil catena| the mineral nutrient levels in overstorey leaves increase| making developing leaves more vulnerable to insect attack. Although the number of leaves produced annually on each vertical foliage shoot in the overstorey increases along the soil-water gradient| Sigma(FPCo + FPCu) remains constant in all stands. The carbon isotope ratios (a measure of stomatal resistance) and leaf specific weights (LSWs) (a measure of the proportion of structural to cytoplasmic content in a leaf) of overstorey and understorey strata| however| are constant throughout the continuum. The well-watered rainforest pockets - where seepage occurs - form the end point of this serpentinite continuum. LSWs and carbon isotope ratios of the canopy trees are similar to those in the sheltered understorey in the eucalypt communities. A gradient of foliage attributes is observed from evergreen canopy trees (12 m) to subshrubs (2 m) in the sunlit life forms that compose the complex structure of the rainforest stands in the humid to subhumid climate of Central Queensland. As alpha diversity (number of species per hectare) is correlated with annual shoot growth per hectare| species richness along the serpentinite continuum is almost half that of nearby plant communities on medium-nutrient soils. The one to two eucalypt species per hectare are about a tenth of the number recorded on adjacent medium-nutrient soils. 7310,2006,2,4,Vertical distribution of soil organic carbon and nitrogen under warm-season native grasses relative to croplands in west-central Indiana| USA,Establishment of grasslands can be an effective means of sequestering soil organic carbon (SOC) and reducing atmospheric CO| that is believed to contribute to global warming. This study evaluated the vertical distribution and overall sequestration of SOC and total nitrogen (N) under warm-season native grasses (WSNGs) planted 6-8 years earlier relative to a corn (Zea mays L.)-soybean (Glycine max L.) crop sequence| and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) relative to tall mixed grasses of big bluestem (Andropogon gerardi)| indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans)| and little bluestem (Andropogon scopurius). Paired soil samples from 0-15| 15-30| 30-60 and 60-100 cm depth increments were taken from WSNGs and adjoining croplands at 10 locations| and from switchgrass and adjoining tall mixed grasses at four locations in three major soil types of alfisols| mollisols| and entisols in Montgomery County| Indiana. Significant differences in SOC and N concentrations of WSNGs and croplands were limited to the surface 30 cm. On average| SOC concentrations in the surface 15 cm depth were higher in WSNGs than croplands (average: 22.4 and 19.8 g kg(-1) C| respectively) but significant differences were observed in just 4 of 10 locations. Similarly| surface soil SOC concentrations were not different for switchgrass (22.1 g kg(-1)) relative to tall mixed grasses (21.4 g kg(-1)). Soil N concentrations never differed significantly among land use treatments. On average| SOC mass calculated to 1.0 m depth was 9.4% higher under WSNGs than cropland (P < 0.058)| and 8.1% higher in switchgrass relative to tall mixed grass (P < 0.054)| but soil N mass was the same for both WSNGs and cropland. Vertical distribution under WSNGs of SOC mass was 26| 21| 28| and 25%| and of total N mass was 3 1| 25| 28 and 16%| in the 0-15| 15-30| 30-60| and 60-100 cut depth intervals| respectively. Even though we acknowledge the potential influence of soil variability or prior landscape processes on our results at some locations| we estimated that WSNGs sequestered an average 2.1 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) more than the corn-soybean sequence. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7257,2006,2,4,Vulnerability to inundation and climate change impacts in California: Coastal managers' attitudes and perceptions,Coastal California has witnessed persistent sea-level rise (10-20 cm) along its southern and central open ocean coastal sections and in San Francisco Bay over the past century. This paper aims to understand the perceptions of local coastal managers in California of current inundation-related risks| the added risks from climate change| and vulnerability to the growing coastal problems. We also explore the extent to which coastal managers are beginning to think about and tackle these increasing management challenges. Survey results presented here suggest that inundation already creates critical management challenges in California| but other| non-inundation-related coastal problems also vie for managers' attention. Despite high awareness of global warming and moderately good understanding of potential impact so climate change on coastal areas| currently pressing issues and limited staff time and resources constrain their ability to begin dealing with the growing risks from sea-level rise. The sobering conclusion is that California is inadequately preparing for the impacts of climate change on coastal areas at this time. Local government will need substantial support from state and federal agencies if the level of preparedness for climate change and other inundation-related risks is to be elevated in the future. 7533,2006,4,4,VUV photoabsorption in CF(3)X (X = Cl| Br| I) fluoro-alkanes,A new ultraviolet beam line has been constructed at the Institute of Storage Rings| University of Aarhus (ISA) to study the Photoabsorption of aeronomic molecules. In this paper| visible-UV spectra of CF(3)Cl and CF(3)Br are reported at high-resolution in the energy range 3.9-10.8 eV (320-115 nm). For both molecules| the present work provides the most reliable absolute cross-sections available at energies above the lowest lying electronic transition| the dissociative A band. Results are compared with earlier data including the recently published photoabsorption spectrum of CF(3)I [N.J. Mason| P. Limao-Vieira| S. Eden| P. Kendall| S. Pathak| A. Dawes| J. Tennyson| P. Tegeder| M. Kitajima| M. Okamoto| K. Sunohara| H. Tanaka| H. Cho| S. Samukawa| S.V. Hoffmann| D. Newnham| S.M. Spyrou| Int. J. Mass Spectrom. 223-224 (2003) 647]. The CF(3)I spectrum is revisited and new assignments made| including the extension of previously proposed its Rydberg series. A detailed description of the ASTRID photoabsorption apparatus at ISA is provided for the first time. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7431,2006,2,4,Warmer does not have to mean sicker: Temperature and predators can jointly drive timing of epidemics,Ecologists and epidemiologists worry that global warming will increase disease prevalence. These fears arise because several direct and indirect mechanisms link warming to disease| and because parasite outbreaks are increasing in many taxa. However| this outcome is not a foregone conclusion| as physiological and community-interaction-based mechanisms may inhibit epidemics at warmer temperatures. Here| we explore this thermal-cormmunity-ecology-based mechanism| centering on fish predators that selectively prey upon Daphnia infected with a fungal parasite. We used an interplay between a simple model built around this system's biology and laboratory experiments designed to parameterize the model. Through this data-model interaction| we found that a given density of predators can inhibit epidemics as temperatures rise when thermal physiology of the predator scales more steeply than that of the host. This case is met in our fish-Daphnia-fungus system. Furthermore| the combination of steeply scaling parasite physiology and predation-induced mortality can inhibit epidemics at lower temperatures. This effect may terminate fungal epidemics of Daphnia as lakes cool in autumn. Thus| predation and physiology could constrain epidemics to intermediate temperatures (a pattern that we see in our system). More generally| these results accentuate the possibility that warmer temperatures might actually enhance predator control of parasites. 7514,2006,2,4,Water temperature behaviour in the River Loire since 1976 and 1881,Analysis of monthly mean river temperatures| recorded on an hourly basis in the middle reaches of the Loire since 1976| allows reconstruction by multiple linear regression of the annual| spring and summer water temperatures from equivalent information on air temperatures and river discharge. Since 188 1| the average annual and summer temperatures of the Loire have risen by approximately 0.8 degrees C. this increase accelerating since the late 1980s due to the rise in air temperature and also to lower discharge rates. In addition. the thermal regime in the Orleans to Blois reach is considerably affected by the inflow of groundwater from the Calcaires de Beauce aquifer| as shown by the summer energy balance. 7503,2006,2,2,Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing,Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed(1-3)| and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere(1|3). Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation(4|5). An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean-driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east-known as the Walker circulation(6). Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions| is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and| within the climate models| is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century(4|5|7). 7558,2006,2,3,West African monsoon response to greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol forcing under two emission scenarios,The impact of increased greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols concentrations upon the West African monsoon (WAM) is investigated for the late twenty-first century period using the Meteo-France ARPEGE-IFS high-resolution atmospheric model. Perturbed (2070-2100) and current (1961-2000) climates are compared using the model in time-slice mode. The model is forced by global sea surface temperatures provided by two transient scenarios performed with low-resolution coupled models and by two GHG evolution scenarios| SRES-A2 and SRES-B2. Comparing to reanalysis and observed data sets| the model is able to reproduce a realistic seasonal cycle of WAM despite a clear underestimation of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) during the boreal summer. Mean temperature change indicates a global warming over the continent (stronger over North and South Africa). Simulated precipitation change at the end of the twenty-first century shows an increase in precipitation over Sudan-Sahel linked to a strong positive feedback with surface evaporation. Along Guinea Gulf coast| rainfall regimes are driven by large-scale moisture advection. Moreover| results show a mean precipitation decrease (increase) in the most (less) enhanced GHG atmosphere over this region. Modification of the seasonal hydrological cycle consists in a rain increase during the monsoon onset. There is a significant increase in rainfall variance over the Sahel| which extends over the Guinea coast region in the moderate emission scenario. Enhanced precipitation over Sahel is linked to large-scale circulation changes| namely a weakening of the AEJ and an intensification of the Tropical Easterly Jet. 7477,2006,2,3,What determines the current presence or absence of permafrost in the Tornetrask region| a sub-arctic landscape in Northern Sweden?,In a warming climate| permafrost is likely to be significantly reduced and eventually disappear from the sub-Arctic region. This will affect people at a range of scales| from locally by slumping of buildings and roads to globally as melting of permafrost will most likely increase the emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane| which will further enhance global warming. In order to predict future changes in permafrost| it is crucial to understand what determines the presence or absence of permafrost under current climate conditions| to assess where permafrost is particularly vulnerable to climate change| and to identify where changes are already occurring. The Tornetrask region of northern sub-Arctic Sweden is one area where changes in permafrost have been recorded and where permafrost could be particularly vulnerable to any future climate changes. This paper therefore reviews the various physical| biological| and anthropogenic parameters that determine the presence or absence of permafrost in the Tornetrask region under current climate conditions| so that we can gain an understanding of its current vulnerability and potential future responses to climate change. A patchy permafrost distribution as found in the Tornetrask region is not random| but a consequence of site-specific factors that control the microclimate and hence the surface and subsurface temperature. It is also a product of past as well as current processes. In sub-Arctic areas such as northern Sweden| it is mainly the physical parameters| e.g.| topography| soil type| and climate (in particular snow depth)| that determine permafrost distribution. Even though humans have been present in the study area for centuries| their impacts on permafrost distribution can more or less be neglected at the catchment level. Because ongoing climate warming is projected to continue and lead to an increased snow cover| the permafrost in the region will most likely disappear within decades| at least at lower elevations. 7480,2006,3,4,Wheat straw and peat for fuel pellets - organic compounds from combustion,Wood pellets are an environmentally friendly biofael. with no net contribution to global warming. Today| the demand for wood pellets for residential heating is rapidly increasing in Sweden and many other countries. Therefore| alternative raw materials for pellet production| such as wheat straw and peat| are of great interest. Before these new fuels are widely used| it is important to study the emissions to air during combustion. The smoke contains a large number of compounds which| to varying degrees| can affect health and the environment. Specific organic compounds from five sequential combustion stages; initial smouldering| early flaming| late flaming| after-flame smouldering and final glowing| were determined for incomplete combustion of straw and peat/wood pellets on a laboratory scale and compared to those from softwood pellets. The emissions from incomplete combustion reflect the chemical composition of the fuel. During initial smouldering of the studied fuels| methoxyphenols from the lignin of the fuels were released at high concentrations. Relatively high concentrations of 1|6-anhydroglucose and furan-related compounds| originating from the polysaccharides of the fuel| were also found during this stage| especially in peat/wood pellet smoke. During flaming burning| wood pellets burned more efficiently and with even lower emissions than the other fuels. After-flame smouldering of the studied pellets| especially straw pellets| released high concentrations of compounds that are hazardous to health and the environment. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7525,2006,2,4,When is a habitat not a habitat? Dramatic resource use changes under differing weather conditions for the butterfly Plebejus argus,A key to conserving organisms is identification of the habitat bounds and essential resources within them. in population studies (metapopulations) of phytophagous arthropods it is tacitly assumed that habitat bounds portray short-term stability and that habitat is largely synonymous with hostplant areas or with a single vegetation unit comprising hostplants; structural components are usually ignored. We test these assumptions by monitoring the behaviour and relative abundance of Plebejus argus (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae) in relation to changing weather conditions in two patches of a North Wales metapopulation for the butterfly. Our findings confirm the importance of structural habitat components. P. argus density is higher in the vicinity of shrubs which are used for roosting| resting| basking| mate location and shelter. A dominant proportion of the population adopts shrub areas in cooler| cloudy and windy weather. In warmer| sunnier and calmer conditions| the butterfly spends longer in flight and moves out onto calcareous heath dominated by hostplants. In doing so| an increasing| even dominant| proportion of the population occupies exposed slopes adjacent to and above shrub covered areas associated with the hostplant. In effect| the habitat bounds appear to change with conditions on scales of days and hours. What part of a landscape may be defined as a habitat| and what part of it may appear to be most important for an organism| depends on just when and where surveys are carried out. We argue that for correct delineation of habitats attention needs to be given to resource use in different conditions. In the face of enhanced global warming| a broad view should be taken of arthropod habitats that considers the resources required for varying conditions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7651,2006,2,3,Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming,As the Earth warms| many species are likely to disappear| often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago| in the mountains of Costa Rica| the Monteverde harlequin frog ( Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad ( Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus| which are endemic to the American tropics| have met the same fate| and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures| we conclude with 'very high confidence' (>99%| following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium| thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity| the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable. 1739,2006,3,4,Wind generation| power system operation| and emissions reduction,With increasing concern over global climate change| policy makers are promoting renewable energy sources| predominantly wind generation| as a means of meeting emissions reduction targets. Although wind generation does not itself produce any harmful emissions| its effect on power system operation can actually cause an increase in the emissions of conventional plants. A dispatch model was developed that analyzes the impact that wind generation has on the operation of conventional plants and the resulting emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2)| sulphur dioxide (SO2)| and oxides of nitrogen (NOX). The analysis concentrates on a "forecasted" approach that incorporates wind generation forecasts in the dispatch decisions. It was found that wind generation could be used as a tool for reducing CO2 emissions but alone| it was not effective in curbing SO2 and NOX emissions. 1686,2006,4,4,Winds of change?: Projections of near-surface winds under climate change scenarios,Changes in near - surface wind speeds due to global climate change may have profound geophysical and societal impacts. However| Global Climate Models (GCMs) are unable to replicate the historically observed magnitude and spatial variability of wind speeds| so we apply a downscaling technique to generate probability distributions of wind speeds at sites in northern Europe for historical periods ( 1961 - 1990 and 1982 - 2000) and two future periods ( 2046 - 2065| 2081 - 2100). Projections for the twenty-first century (C21st) indicate no evidence of substantial evolution relative to the end of the twentieth century (C20th)| although there is increased divergence of results from downscaling of different GCMs toward the end of C21st. Predicted changes in the downscaled mean and 90th percentile wind speeds are small (< +/- 15%) and are comparable to the current variability manifest in downscaling from different GCMs. 8199,2007,4,3,20th century changes in surface solar irradiance in simulations and observations,The amount of solar irradiance reaching the surface is a key parameter in the hydrological and energy cycles of the Earth's climate. We analyze 20th Century simulations using nine state-of-the-art climate models and show that all models estimate a global annual mean reduction in downward surface solar radiation of 1-4 W/m(2) at the same time that the globe warms by 0.4-0.7 degrees C. In single forcing simulations using the GISS-ER model| this "global dimming" signal is shown to be predominantly related to aerosol effects. In the global mean sense the surface adjusts to changes in downward solar flux instantaneously by reducing the upward fluxes of longwave| latent and sensible heat. Adding increased greenhouse gas forcing traps outgoing longwave radiation in the atmosphere and surface which results in net heating ( although reduced) that is consistent with global warming over the 20th Century. Over the 1984-2000 period| individual model simulations show widely disparate results| mostly related to cloud changes associated with tropical Pacific variations| similar to the changes inferred from the satellite data analysis. This suggests that this time period is not sufficient to determine longer term trends. 7941,2007,2,2,A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib Desert tree Aloe through population declines and dispersal lags,While poleward species migration in response to recent climatic warming is widely documented| few studies have examined entire range responses of broadly distributed sessile organisms| including changes on both the trailing (equatorward) and the leading (poleward) range edges. From a detailed population census throughout the entire geographical range of Aloe dichotoma Masson| a long-lived Namib Desert tree| together with data from repeat photographs| we present strong evidence that a developing range shift in this species is a 'fingerprint' of anthropogenic climate change. This is explained at a high level of statistical significance by population level impacts of observed regional warming and resulting water balance constraints. Generalized linear models suggest that greater mortalities and population declines in equatorward populations are virtually certainly the result| due to anthropogenic climate change| of the progressive exceedance of critical climate thresholds that are relatively closer to the species' tolerance limits in equatorward sites. Equatorward population declines are also broadly consistent with bioclimatically modelled projections under anticipated anthropogenic climate change but| as yet| there is no evidence of poleward range expansion into the area predicted to become suitable in future| despite good evidence for positive population growth trends in poleward populations. This study is among the first to show a marked lag between trailing edge population extinction and leading edge range expansion in a species experiencing anthropogenic climate change impacts| a pattern likely to apply to most sessile and poorly dispersed organisms. This provides support for conservative assumptions of species' migration rates when modelling climate change impacts for such species. Aloe dichotoma's response to climate change suggests that desert ecosystems may be more sensitive to climate change than previously suspected. 8219,2007,3,4,A Chinese sky trust? Distributional impacts of carbon charges and revenue recycling in China,The introduction of carbon charges on the use of fossil fuels in China would have a progressive impact on income distribution. This outcome| which contrasts to the regressive distributional impact found in most studies of carbon charges in industrialized countries| is driven primarily by differences between urban and rural expenditure patterns. If carbon revenues were recycled on an equal per capita basis via a 'sky trust|' the progressive impact would be further enhanced: low-income (mainly rural) households would receive more in sky-trust dividends than they pay in carbon charges| and high-income (mainly urban) households would pay more than they receive in dividends. Thus a Chinese sky trust would contribute to both lower fossil fuel consumption and greater income equality. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1429,2007,2,4,A comparative analysis of the photobiology of zooxanthellae and zoochlorellae symbiotic with the temperate clonal anemone Anthopleura elegantissima (Brandt). III. Seasonal effects of natural light and temperature on photosynthesis and respiration,The sea anemone Anthopleura elegantissima hosts two phylogenetically different symbiotic microalgae| a dinoflagellate Symbiodinium (zooxanthellae| ZX) and a chlorophyte (zoochlorellae| ZC). The photosynthetic productivity (P)| respiration (R)| and contribution of algal carbon translocated to the host (CZAR) in response to a year's seasonal ambient changes of natural light and temperature are documented for both ZX- and ZC-bearing anemones. Light and temperature both affect photosynthesis| respiration| and CZAR| as well as various algal parameters; while there are evident seasonal differences| for the most part the relative effects on P| R| and CZAR by the two environmental variables cannot be determined. Net photosynthesis (P-n) of both ZX and ZC was significantly higher during spring and summer. During these seasons| the P-n of ZX was always greater than that of ZC. Regardless of algal symbiont| anemone respiration (R) was significantly higher during the spring and summer. The annual net carbon fixation rate of anemones with ZX and ZC was 325 and 276 mg C anemone(-1) year(-1)| respectively| which translates to annual net community productivity rates of 92 and 60 g C m(-1) year(-1) for anemones with ZX or ZC| respectively. CZAR did not show a clear relationship with season; however the CZAR for ZX was always significantly greater than for ZC. Lower ZX growth rates| coupled with higher photosynthetic rates and higher CZAR estimates| compared to ZC| suggest that if A. elegantissima is simply carbon limited| ZX-bearing anemones should be the dominant symbiont in the field. However ZC-bearing anemones persist in low light and reduced temperature microhabitats| therefore more than the translocation of carbon from ZC must be involved. Given that global climate change will increase water temperatures| the potential for latitudinal range shifts of both ZC and ZX (S. californium and muscatinei) might be used as biological indicators of thermal shifts in the littoral zone of the Pacific Northwest. 8299,2007,2,4,A complete energy balance from photons to new biomass reveals a light- and nutrient-dependent variability in the metabolic costs of carbon assimilation,The energy balance of Phaeodactylum tricomutum| cells from photon to biomass have been analysed under nutrient-replete and N-limiting conditions in combination with fluctuating (FL) and non-fluctuating (SL) dynamic light. For this purpose| the amount of photons absorbed has been related to electrons transported by photosystem 11| to gas exchange rates| and to the newly formed biomass differentially resolved into carbohydrates| proteins| and lipids measured by means of Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Under high nutrient conditions| the quantum efficiency of carbon-related biomass production ((Phi c) and the metabolic costs of carbon (C) production were found to be strongly controlled by the light climate. Under N-limited conditions| the light climate was less important for the efficieny of primary production. Thus| the largest range of (Phi c dependent on the nutrient status of the cells was observed under non-fluctuating light conditions which are comparable with stratified conditions in the natural environment. It is evident that N limitation induced pronounced changes in the composition of macromolecular compounds and| thus| influenced the degree of reduction of the biomass as well as the metabolic costs of C production. However| (Dc and the metabolic costs are not predictable from the photosynthesis rates. In consequence| the results clearly show that bio-optical methods as well as gas exchange measurements during the light phase can severely mismatch the true energy storage in the biomass especially under high nutrient in combination with non-fluctuating light conditions. 8341,2007,3,4,A decision making matrix with life cycle perspective of materials for roofs in Sri Lanka,This paper compares the environmental| economic and social impacts of two types of roofs (elements) widely used for buildings in Sri Lanka| namely tile and asbestos| taking into consideration a life cycle perspective. Environmental burdens associated with these elements are analyzed in terms of embodied energy along with the environmental impacts such as global warming| acidification and nutrient enrichment. Economic analysis based on market prices of materials and social analysis based on interviews are also carried out. It was found that asbestos elements are superior to tile elements for environmental scores acidification| nutrient enrichment and embodied energies. However| the global warming of the asbestos elements is a little higher. On economic and social scores also asbestos elements perform better. This analysis will help in the decision-making process when selecting materials for these elements. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7886,2007,2,4,A descriptive epidemiological study on canine babesiosis in the Lake Geneva region,A descriptive study was carried out in the district of the Lake Geneva between March 1| 2005 and August 31|2006 to assess the incidence and prevalence of canine babesiosis| to genotype the Babesia species occurring| to assess the most frequently clinical signs found and to address the potential of autochthonous transmission. This included a data assessment on the different tick-populations occurring in the area and on the prevalence of Babesia-DNA in these ticks. A total of 56 veterinary practices participated in the study. By blood smear and PCI| Babesia canis canis was found in 12 out of 21 cases with suspected babesiosis. In an additional 13th case| the parasite could only be detected by PCR. All autochthonous cases originated from the Western part of the Lake Geneva region. Clinical signs in affected dogs included inappetence| apathy| anemia| fever| hemoglobinuria and thron-ibocytopenia. There were no risk factors with regard to age| sex and breed. Most cases were diagnosed during the spring periods of 2005 and 2006 (11 cases) and two cases in autumn 2005| coinciding with the main activity period of Dermacentor reticulatus| the main vector of B. canis canis. A total of 495 ticks were collected on patients by the veterinarians| 473 were identified as Ixodes sp.| 7 as khipicephalus sanguineus and 15 as Dermacentor reticulatus. While Nodes sp. was found in the whole study area| D. reticulatus and R. sanguineus occurred only in the Western part till Lausanne. PCR and sequencing yielded B. canis canis positivity in 3 D. reticulatus specimen| these three ticks were collected from two different dogs both suffering from babesiosis. All R. sanguineus were negative by Babesia-PCR. Global warming| ecological changes in the potential habitat of ticks| increasing host- and vector-populations and increasing mobility of dog owners may be responsible for an emergence situation of infection risk for Babesia spp. by time. E.g.|Dermacentor reticulatus has become autochtonously prevalent already till Lausanne in the Lake Geneva region| and further surveillance is suggested to tackle this problem. 7917,2007,2,4,A generic 3d finite element model of tree anchorage integrating soil mechanics and real root system architecture,Understanding the mechanism of tree anchorage in a forest is a priority because of the increase in wind storms in recent years and their projected recurrence as a consequence of global warming. To characterize anchorage mechanisms during tree uprooting| we developed a generic finite element model where real three-dimensional (3D) root system architectures were represented in a 3D soil. The model was used to simulate tree overturning during wind loading| and results compared with real data from two poplar species (Populus trichocarpa and P. deltoides). These trees were winched sideways until failure| and uprooting force and root architecture measured. The uprooting force was higher for P. deltoides than P. trichocarpa| probably due to its higher root volume and thicker lateral roots. Results from the model showed that soil type influences failure modes. In frictional soils| e.g.| sandy soils| plastic failure of the soil occurred mainly on the windward side of the tree. In cohesive soils| e.g.| clay soils| a more symmetrical slip surface was formed. Root systems were more resistant to uprooting in cohesive soil than in frictional soil. Applications of this generic model include virtual uprooting experiments| where each component of anchorage can be tested individually. 8237,2007,2,4,A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends,Recently documented trends in the existing records of hurricane intensity and their relationship to increasing sea surface temperatures suggest that hurricane intensity may be increasing due to global warming. However| it is presently being argued that the existing global hurricane records are too inconsistent to accurately measure trends. As a first step in addressing this debate| we constructed a more homogeneous global record of hurricane intensity and found that previously documented trends in some ocean basins are well supported| but in others the existing records contain trends that may be inflated or spurious. 7930,2007,3,3,A guide to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electric supply technologies,This manuscript reviews and compares the results of recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emission life-cycle analyses. Specific attention is paid to fossil energy technologies| nuclear and renewable energy technologies (RETs)| as well as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and energy storage systems. Analysing up- and downstream processes and their associated GHG emissions| which arise upstream and downstream of the power plant (i.e.| electricity generation stage)| is important; otherwise| the GHG emissions resulting from electricity generation of the various fuel options are underestimated. For fossil fuel technology options upstream GHG emission rates can be up to 25% of the direct emissions from the power plant| whereas for most RETs and nuclear power upstream and downstream GHG emissions can account for way over 90% of cumulative emissions. In economies where carbon is being priced or GHG emissions constrained| this may provide an advantage to technologies with trans-boundary upstream emissions over technologies without significant life-cycle emissions arising outside the legislative boundaries of GHG mitigation policies. It is therefore desirable for GHG emissions under national| regional and international mitigation policies to be accounted for over its entire life-cycle. The results presented here indicate that the most significant GHG avoidance (in absolute terms) can be made from technology substitution. The introduction of advanced fossil fuel technologies can also lead to improvements in life-cycle GHG emissions. Overall| hydro| nuclear and wind energy technologies can produce electricity with the least life-cycle global warming impact. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1473,2007,4,4,A maximum entropy method for combining AOGCMs for regional intra-year climate change assessment,This paper deals with different responses from various Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) at the regional scale. What can be the best use of AOGCMs for assessing the climate change in a particular region? The question is complicated by the consideration of intra-year month-to-month variability of a particular climate variable such as precipitation or temperature in a specific region. A maximum entropy method (MEM)| which combines limited information with empirical perspectives| is applied to assessing the probability-weighted multimodel ensemble average of a climate variable at the region scale. The method is compared to and coupled with other two methods: the root mean square error minimization method and the simple multimodel ensemble average method. A mechanism is developed to handle a comprehensive range of model uncertainties and to identify the best combination of AOGCMs based on a balance of two rules: depending equally on all models versus giving higher priority to models more strongly verified by the historical observation. As a case study| the method is applied to a central US region to compute the probability-based average changes in monthly precipitation and temperature projected for 2055| based on outputs from a set of AOGCMs. Using the AOGCM data prepared by international climate change study groups and local climate observation data| one can apply the MEM to precipitation or temperature for a particular region to generate an annual cycle| which includes the effects from both global climate change and local intra-year climate variability. 8281,2007,2,4,A methodological approach to characterize the resilience of aquatic ecosystems with application to Lake Annecy| France,[ 1] We propose a methodological approach to characterize the resilience of aquatic ecosystems with respect to the evolution of environmental parameters as well as their aptitude to adapt to forcings. This method that is applied to Lake Annecy| France| proceeds in three stages. First| according to the depth| variations of physicochemical parameters versus time are separated into three components related to ( 1) energy transfer through the surface of the lake| ( 2) the flow of rivers and springs that feed the lake| and ( 3) long-term evolution of the benthic zone as a consequence of mineral and organic matter loads. Second| dynamics of the lake are deduced by analyzing the physicochemical parameter components related to the three boundary conditions. Third| a stochastic process associated with the transfer models aims to characterize the resilience of the lakes according to forcings. For Lake Annecy| whose dynamics are representative of oligotrophic stratified lakes controlled by decarbonation processes where turnover and mixing occurring once a year in winter| the major consequence is the impoverishment of dissolved oxygen in deep water in autumn due to a temperature increase of the surface water in summer. The simulation raises relevant questions about whether a connection exists between physicochemical parameters and global warming| which should not induce harmful consequences on water quality and biodiversity in deep water. This methodological approach is general since it does not use any physical conceptual model to predict the hydrosystem behavior but uses directly observed data. 7892,2007,3,1,A model for the CO2 capture potential,Global warming is a result of increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions| and the consequences will be dramatic climate changes if no action is taken. One of the main global challenges in the years to come is therefore to reduce the CO2 emissions. Increasing energy efficiency and a transition to renewable energy as the major energy source can reduce CO2 emissions| but such measures can only lead to significant emission reductions in the long-term. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technological option for reducing CO2 emissions on a shorter time scale. A model to calculate the CO2 capture potential has been developed| and it is estimated that 25 billion tonnes CO2 can be captured and stored within the EU by 2050. Globally| 236 billion tonnes CO2 can be captured and stored by 2050. The calculations indicate that wide implementation of CCS can reduce CO2 emissions by 54% in the EU and 33% globally in 2050 compared to emission levels today. Such a reduction in emissions is not sufficient to stabilize the climate. Therefore| the strategy to achieve the necessary CO2 emissions reductions must be a combination of (1) increasing energy efficiency| (2) switching from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources| and (3) wide implementation of CCS. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7730,2007,2,4,A modeling approach to forecast the effect of long-term climate change on lake water quality,The long-term effect of global warming on environmental variables| such as water temperature| dissolved oxygen and nutrients as well as aquatic ecosystems was assessed. The developed watershed runoff model and reservoir water quality model with meteorological input calculated by a GCM A2 scenario is applied to Shimajigawa reservoir located in western Japan. To evaluate the sensitivity and long-term effects of climate change on water quality and aquatic ecosystems| we compare the simulated results of the lake model obtained for 1991-2001 with those obtained for 2091-2100. The 10-year average of surface water temperature in the 2090s was predicted to increase by about 3.4 degrees C compared with in the 1990s. The surface water temperature is expected to increase by 3.8 degrees C and the water temperature of the hypolimnion by 2.8 degrees C. As a result| higher temperatures expected to expand the thermal stratification period| and deepen the thermocline. This change might also lead to an increase in oxygen demand for aerobic decomposition| and promote an upward flux of phosphorus from sediments| increasing the concentration and amount of phosphorus in the hypolimnion. In Shimajigawa reservoir| phosphate release from sediments under anaerobic conditions is spread to AAE layer by the vertical diffusion and is transported to the epilimnion by the turnover| causing phytoplankton growth in the epilimnion. Based on long-term prediction using water quality model global warming were shown to cause more trophic lake conditions| further promoting algal growth and changing the aquatic ecosystems. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1500,2007,5,4,A new chronology for the age of Appalachian erosional surfaces determined by cosmogenic nuclides in cave sediments,The relative chronology of landscape evolution across the unglaciated Appalachian plateaus of Kentucky and Tennessee is well documented. For more than a century| geomorphologists have carefully mapped and correlated upland erosional surfaces inset by wide-valley straths and smaller terraces. Constraining the timing of river incision into the Appalachian uplands was difficult in the past due to unsuitable dating methods and poorly preserved surface materials. Today| burial dating using the differential decay of cosmogenic Al-26 and Be-10 in clastic cave sediments reveals more than five million years of landscape evolution preserved underground. Multilevel caves linked hydrologically to the incision history of the Cumberland River contain in situ sediments equivalent to fluvial deposits found scattered across the Eastern Highland Rim erosional surface. Cave sediments correlate with: (1) thick Lafayette-type gravels on the Eastern Highland Rim deposited between c. 5 center dot 7 and c. 3 center dot 5 Ma; (2) initial incision of the Cumberland River into the Eastern Highland Rim after c. 3 center dot 5 Ma; (3) formation of the Parker strath between c. 3 center dot 5 Ma and c. 2 center dot 0 Ma; (4) incision into the Parker strath at c. 2 Ma; (5) formation of a major terrace between c. 2 center dot 0 Ma and c. 1 center dot 5 Ma; (6) shorter cycles of accelerated incision and base level stability beginning at c. 1 center dot 5 Ma; and (7) regional aggradation at c. 0 center dot 85 Ma. Initial incision into the Appalachian uplands is interpreted as a response to eustasy at 3 center dot 2-3 center dot 1 Ma. Incision of the Parker strath is interpreted as a response to eustasy at 2 center dot 5-2 center dot 4 Ma. A third incision event at c. 1 center dot 5 Ma corresponds with glacial reorganization of the Ohio River basin. Widespread aggradation of cave passages at c. 0 center dot 85 Ma is interpreted as the beginning of intense glacial-interglacial cycling associated with global climate change. (C) Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 8366,2007,4,4,A new day-to-day pressure variability index as a proxy of Icelandic storminess and complement to the North Atlantic Oscillation index 1823-2005,As unknown instrument index errors might affect the accuracy of the early parts of the long-term baseline North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices| it is of interest to find alternative means for an assessment of the behavior of the NAO. Our novel day-to-day pressure variability index (dp) introduced in this paper shows interesting secular variability that is in some sense a 'measure' of the proximity of the Atlantic storm track to Iceland and thus also an independent measure of the activity of the NAO. Like the NAO indices| dp is significantly negatively (positively) correlated with temperature in western Greenland (north-west Europe). There is a significant correlation between the dp index and average wind speed at the Icelandic stations (for the time of available wind records). This correlation becomes especially prominent at multi-year time scales| but is also evident at the scale of individual months. There is no evidence of a global warming signal in this storminess proxy. 1533,2007,2,4,A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield,The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change| according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional "yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or "yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale| and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore| the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC)| which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions| is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model| yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China| and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook. 8150,2007,2,3,A new feedback on climate change from the hydrological cycle,An intensification of the hydrological cycle is a likely consequence of global warming. But changes in the hydrological cycle could affect sea-surface temperature by modifying diffusive ocean heat transports. We investigate this mechanism by studying a coupled general circulation model sensitivity experiment in which the hydrological cycle is artificially amplified. We find that the amplified hydrological cycle depresses sea-surface temperature by enhancing ocean heat uptake in low latitudes. We estimate that a 10% increase in the hydrological cycle will contribute a basin-scale sea-surface temperature decrease of around 0.1 degrees C away from high latitudes| with larger decreases locally. We conclude that an intensified hydrological cycle is likely to contribute a weak negative feedback to anthropogenic climate change. 8323,2007,3,4,A Norwegian perspective on buildings and climate change,The current Norwegian climate research structures| policies and priorities| mitigation and adaptation options are discussed as well as the development of local climate change projections and adaptation measures. A major difficulty is that Norway's present energy supply has a low carbon intensity because a substantial part derives from hydropower| but increasing demand may be met by gas-fired electricity generation| thereby making efficiency and conservation a much higher priority. A National Action Plan on Climate Research recognizes the need for increased research efforts in several areas| including the impacts on the built environment and the more general impacts on society. Mitigation opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions within the built environment include increased technological efficiencies| reduced energy usage through improved design| mandatory labelling schemes and a switch to climate neutral fuels for heating. However| radically lower energy requirements and lower U-values will be problematic| requiring new technical solutions and construction methods. There is little integration of policy and strategy for adaptation in Norway. The recognition that climate change will further enhance an array of different| harsh microclimates in Norway| which vary according to individual locality| has led to the development of new adaptation approaches and methods. These allow for the projected local climate to inform decisions on an appropriate design response to meet performance-based codes. The development of design guidance for high-performance building envelopes will| in future| take account of projected local climate. However| there is a tension between the need for standardized national building solutions and the need to adapt to local climatic conditions. 8182,2007,3,2,A novel process integration| optimization and design approach for large-scale implementation of oxy-fired coal power plants with CO2 capture,The widespread use of fossil fuels within the current energy infrastructure is considered as the largest source of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide| which is largely blamed for global warming and climate change. At the current state of development| the risks and costs of non-fossil energy alternatives| such as nuclear| biomass| solar| and wind energy| are so high that they cannot replace the entire share of fossil fuels in the near future timeframe. Additionally| any rapid change towards non-fossil energy sources| even if possible| would result in large disruptions to the existing energy supply infrastructure. As an alternative| the existing and new fossil fuel-based plants can be modified or designed to be either "capture" or "capture-ready" plants in order to reduce their emission intensity through the capture and permanent storage of carbon dioxide in geological formations. This would give the coal-fired power generation units the option to sustain their operations for longer time| while meeting the stringent environmental regulations on air pollutants and carbon emissions in years to come. Currently| there are three main approaches to capturing CO2 from the combustion of fossil fuels| namely| pre-combustion capture| post-combustion capture| and oxy-fuel combustion. Among these technology options| oxy-fuel combustion provides an elegant approach to CO2 capture. In this approach| by replacing air with oxygen in the combustion process| a CO2-rich flue gas stream is produced that can be readily compressed for pipeline transport and storage. in this paper| we propose a new approach that allows air to be partially used in the oxy-fired coal power plants. In this novel approach| the air can be used to carry the coal from the mills to the boiler (similar to the conventional air-fired coal power plants)| while O-2 is added to the secondary recycle flow as well as directly to the combustion zone (if needed). From a practical point of view| this approach eliminates problems with the primary recycle and also lessens concerns about the air leakage into the system. At the same time| it allows the boiler and its back-end piping to operate under slight suction; this avoids the potential danger to the plant operators and equipment due to possible exposure to hot combustion gases| CO2 and particulates. As well| by integrating oxy-fuel system components and optimizing the overall process over a wide range of operating conditions| an optimum or near-optimum design can be achieved that is both cost-effective and practical for large-scale implementation of oxy-fired coal power plants. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8362,2007,4,4,A perfect storm: The combined effects on population fluctuations of autocorrelated environmental noise| age structure| and density dependence,While it is widely appreciated that climate can affect the population dynamics of various species| a mechanistic understanding of how climate interacts with life-history traits to influence population fluctuations requires development. Here we build a general density-dependent age-structured model that accounts for differential responses in life-history traits to increasing population density. We show that as the temporal frequency of favorable environmental conditions increases| population fluctuations also increase provided that unfavorable environmental conditions still occur. As good years accumulate and the number of individuals in a population increases| successive life-history traits become vulnerable to density dependence once a return to unfavorable conditions prevails. The stronger this ratcheting of density dependence in life-history traits by autocorrelated climatic conditions| the larger the population fluctuations become. Highly fecund species| and those in which density dependence occurs in juvenile and adult vital rates at similar densities| are most sensitive to increases in the frequency of favorable conditions. Understanding the influence of global warming on temporal correlation in regional environmental conditions will be important in identifying those species liable to exhibit increased population fluctuations that could lead to their extinction. 7742,2007,2,4,A possible constraint on regional precipitation intensity changes under global warming,Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important| by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum| the changes show a relatively simple pattern for nearly all regions and seasons examined whereby nearly all high-intensity daily precipitation contributes a larger fraction of the total precipitation| and nearly all low-intensity precipitation contributes a reduced fraction. The percentile separating relative decrease from relative increase occurs around the 70th percentile of cumulative precipitation| irrespective of the governing precipitation processes or which model produced the simulation. Changes in normalized distributions display these features much more consistently than distribution changes without normalization. Further analysis suggests that this consistent response in precipitation intensity may be a consequence of the intensity spectrum's adherence to a gamma distribution. Under the gamma distribution| when the total precipitation or number of precipitation days changes| there is a single transition between precipitation rates that contribute relatively more to the total and rates that contribute relatively less. The behavior is roughly the same as the results of the numerical models and is insensitive to characteristics of the baseline climate| such as average precipitation| frequency of rain days| and the shape parameter of the precipitation's gamma distribution. Changes in the normalized precipitation distribution give a more consistent constraint on how precipitation intensity may change when climate changes than do changes in the nonnormalized distribution. The analysis does not apply to extreme precipitation for which the theory of statistical extremes more likely provides the appropriate description. 7964,2007,5,4,A pre-Himantian (Late Ordovician) interval of global cooling - The Boda event re-assessed,Facies analysis suggests that the early-mid Ashgill (Late Ordovician) 'Boda event' of Fortey and Cocks [Fortey| R.A.| Cocks| L.R.M.| 2005. Late Ordovician global warming-The Boda event. Geology 33 (5)| 405-408] was an episode of global cooling| not of warming as they proposed. Limestones are widely developed at this level from mid-latitude to high-latitude| commonly interrupting thick Ordovician successions of fine clastic sediments. Bryozoan carbonate mud mounds in a laterally extensive coolwater carbonate belt along the high palaeolatitude margin of W Gondwana are associated with glacial diamictites| and grew during glacial lowstand with sea ice prior to the Hirmantian glaciation. From high to mid-palaeolatitudes| contemporaneous cool-water carbonates with mud mounds| including stromatactis both in Gondwana and in Baltica| developed in mid-outer ramp settings during regression. In the dominantly clastic Welsh Basin of Avalonia| phosphatic facies on an Iapetus-facing carbonate ramp indicate upwelling cold waters down-ramp| yet up-ramp coralliferous-algal limestones suggest warm surface waters. We propose that the Late Ordovician cool-water carbonates developed in response to global cooling and expansion of Gondwanan terrestrial and sea ice that lowered eustatic sea level| and on the W Gondwanan shelf reduced or shut down fluvial clastic input. Previously poorly circulated| salinity-stratified oceans that had restricted benthic dispersal in mid-low latitudes were replaced by thermohaline ocean circulation that oxygenated bottom waters and dispersed benthic faunas. An earlier| Caradoc carbonate interval in low-mid palaeolatitudes that shares many facies characteristics with the Ashgill cool-water limestones| and correlates with a widely recognised isotope excursion| is interpreted as indicating an earlier global cooling episode. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V. 8198,2007,2,4,A prototype for convective margin shifts,Regional precipitation anomalies under El Nino or global warming scenarios manifest considerable spatial variability| especially in the vicinity of tropical deep convective zones. Using a simplified set of equations| we develop an analytic prototype of convective margins for tropical land regions subject to inflow from adjacent ocean regions. The approach yields an expression for the location of the convective margin from which it is straightforward to deduce how climate perturbations impact the margin. We compare the results of the prototype to full model simulations of the equatorial South American precipitation response to El Nino forcing and find general agreement. Analysis of the observations supports the convective inflow margin prototype's applicability to appropriately simple basic state configurations. 8309,2007,4,4,A QFD-centred design methodology for environmentally conscious product design,As our society becomes more environmentally conscious| manufacturers must incorporate 'environmental qualities' into products. This paper proposes a general design methodology to effectively support environmentally consciousness design of products. The methodology employs three tools: LCA ( life cycle assessment)| QFDE ( quality function deployment for environment)| and TRIZ ( theory of inventive problem solving). QFDE is a tool developed by modifying and extending QFD| and is extended further in this paper. In addition| connecting two consecutive tools is realized by established relations among those tools. The presented methodology is proved through application to a hair dryer to effectively support the product planning and conceptual design stages. For instance| designers could utilize one of the LCA results that the product has a high impact on global warming through energy consumption during its use phase to define a requirement objectively in QFDE| 'reduce the energy consumption' with a high weighting. TRIZ allowed designers to generate four improvement solutions. The most highly evaluated was using resonance frequency on the motor. This was obtained from a QFDE result that 'dry quickly' and 'dry quietly' have a contradiction. The methodology has a larger benefit than is obtained from utilizing those three tools independently. 8161,2007,2,3,A re-evaluation of crop heat units in the maritime provinces of Canada,Crop heat units (CHU) are commonly used to rate suitability of corn (Zea mays L.) hybrids and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] varieties for production in various regions of Canada. The CHU map presently in use for the Maritime provinces is based on climate data from the period 1956 to 1985. This paper presents an updated CHU map for the region using the latest available climate normals (1971 to 2000) and up-to-date interpolation and mapping procedures. Decadal time trends of CHU and water deficits are also examined for seven selected climate stations in the region. Average CHU ratings often increased by 100 units or more for the most recent period| with some exceptions. Station decadal trends from 1955 to 2004 confirmed the warming trend| with an average increase of 86 CHU per decade. Increased CHU have promoted higher potential yields in corn and soybean in the region| although this potential was not likely met during the last decade due to frequent droughts in some areas. However| there is presently little evidence to suggest that higher yield potential will be significantly limited by changing water deficits as a result of greenhouse-gas induced global warming in this century.
1397,2007,5,4,A record of Holocene climate change in the Guanzhong Basin| China| based on optical dating of a loess-palaeosol sequence,Optical dating was used to obtain a chronology for a loess-palaeosol sequence in the Guanzhong Basin on the Loess Plateau in China. The sedimentary sequence recorded two dry episodes (3.7 similar to 2.4 ka and 1.2 similar to 0.8 ka ago) in the Holocene as shown by the presence of two layers of loess within the Holocene deposits. These two arid events are consistent with records of global climate change in the Holocene and also coincident with major historic events in China. This finding suggests that loess-paleosol sequences in China can record global climate changes and implies that rapid climate change affected the progress of human civilization. In addition| changes in the sedimentation rate through the section suggest that agricultural expansion may have accelerated the rate of dust accumulation. 7778,2007,3,3,A review of farm level modelling approaches for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from ruminant livestock systems,Ruminant livestock systems contribute to global warming through the emission of nitrous oxide (N(2)O)| methane (CH(4)) and carbon dioxide (CO|). This paper discusses a general framework for a whole-farm approach to develop cost-effective GHG mitigation strategies. A dairy farm is a complex system with different interacting components. Generally| whole-farm approaches distinguish at least an animal component and a soil-crop component. Whole-farm models should be able to give an accurate representation of the internal cycling of materials and its constituents as well as the exchange between the farming system and its environment. The paper gives an overview of current whole-farm models that are able to simulate GHG emissions for dairy farms. These models are DairySim| FarmGHG| SIMS(DAIRY) and FarmSim. All models are able to calculate CH(4) and N(2)O emissions| but differences appear in the ability to calculate CO| emissions| economics and other parameters. The effects of selected mitigation strategies are demonstrated with some of the models. It is concluded that a whole-farm approach is a powerful tool for the development of cost-effective GHG mitigation options as it reveals relevant interactions between farm components. Model calculations underlined the relationship between farm gate N surplus and GHG emissions| and thus the possibility to use N surpluses as an indicator for GHG emissions. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7894,2007,4,4,A simple calorimetric experiment that highlights aspects of global heat retention and global warming,In this laboratory experiment| general chemistry students measure the heating curves for three different systems: (i) 500 g of room-temperature water heated by a small desk lamp| (ii) 500 g of an ice-water mixture warmed by conduction with room-temperature surroundings| and (iii) 500 g of an ice-water mixture heated by a small desk lamp and by conduction with room-temperature surroundings. The students verify that heat is consumed in the melting of ice| with no increase in temperature until all the ice has melted. The fundamental calorimetric principles demonstrated by the lab results are then directly connected to the topic of global warming| and a more precise terminology--one that distinguishes between global heat retention and global warming--is developed to help students better assess and understand the experimental evidence associated with global warming. (Contains 1 figure and 1 note.) 8230,2007,3,3,A statistical approach for estimation of process flow data from production of chemicals of fossil origin,Goal| Scope and Background. The life cycles of many products including textiles contain chemicals for which process flow data are not known or are too time consuming to collect. Although each chemical may not contribute significantly to the LCA results of the product| which might justify excluding them| but together their contribution could be significant. Similarly| rough estimates of the process flows for the production of a single chemical may be very uncertain and considered meaningless| while the estimates of the cumulative data of process flows for several chemicals may be less uncertain and be a meaningful contribution to the quality of the LCA results. There are methods for estimation of process flows for different types of products| with varying demands regarding input data and time and with varying accuracy of the results. This work contributes to the available methods| focusing on simple estimations for production of chemical substances. The goal was to create a fast method for estimation of emissions| resource and energy flows (process flows) for the production of chemicals| based on easily available data on the properties of the chemicals. The process flows investigated were limited to those normally associated with process industries and contributing most to depletion of resources| to global warming| acidification| eutrophication and photochemical ozone production| i.e. use of energy| crude oil| coal| natural gas| uranium in ore and emissions of CO2| So(x)| NOx| NMVOC| methane| BOD| COD and total N: Toxic substances were excluded| since toxic emissions are substance specific and cannot be included in a generalization. Method. Available data for the process flows for the production of chemicals of mainly fossil origin were correlated to properties of chemicals such as amount of carbon in the molecule| heat of formation and average number of chemical reaction steps in the production. The production procedures were found in readily available literature. Up to about six reaction steps were evaluated in the correlation study. The variations in the process flows among the chemicals studied were calculated. Results and Discussion. There were weak correlations between average number of chemical reaction steps in the production and energy use| COD measured in water emissions| and Sox and NO| emissions to air. For the remaining properties of chemicals and process flows| there were only weak correlations for share of double bonding in the molecule if only molecules containing double bondings were included. Conclusions. The precision in estimation of the process flows increases non-significantly when adding information on the number of reaction steps or share of double bonding for chemicals containing double bonding is added. Recommendations and Outlook. It seems reasonable to start with a simple grouping method to estimate the process flows for the production of a chemical of fossil origin. Further investigations might investigate whether there is a correlation between process flows and the costs of chemicals| and further study the correlations between process flows and share of double bonding for chemicals containing double bondings. 8191,2007,3,2,A techno-economical evaluation for installation of suitable wind energy plants in western Marmara| Turkey,The increasing environmental concerns in recent years about global warming and the harmful effects of carbon emissions have created a new demand for clean and sustainable energy sources| such as wind| solar etc. Turkey has important wind energy potential especially in the Marmara region| coasts of western and southern Anatolia. However| utilization of this potential is still below the desired level. In this study| wind energy potential of Kirklareli province in the northwestern Marmara region of Turkey was analyzed. Economical evaluation of the wind energy in the site was made by using the levelised cost method. The energy production was determined by means of the time-series and Weibull approaches. The selected turbines for investigation are of various rated powers ranging from 300 kW to 2500 kW. The effect of hub height on the energy production was investigated for various hub heights. The results showed that the cost of energy production per kWh for the related site vary between 5.37 and 11.91. An increase in the escalation rate of the operating and maintenance cost from 0 to 10%| increases the unit energy cost about 6%. For the wind turbine of 2300 kW rated power| as the hub height increases from 80 to 100 m| the cost of energy decreases about 4%. 8300,2007,5,3,A unique carbon isotope record across the Guadalupian-Lopingian (Middle-Upper Permian) boundary in mid-oceanic paleo-atoll carbonates: The high-productivity "Kamura event" and its collapse in Panthalassa,Middle to Upper Permian shallow marine carbonates in the Kamura area| Kyushu (SW Japan)| were derived from a paleo-atoll complex developed on an ancient seamount in mid-Panthalassa. The Capitanian (Upper Guadalupian) Iwato Formation (19 m-thick dark gray limestone) and the conformably overlying Wuchiapingian (Lower Lopingian) Mitai Formation (17 m-thick light gray dolomitic limestone) are composed of bioclastic limestone of subtidal facies| yielding abundant fusulines. A secular change in stable carbon isotope ratio of carbonate carbon (delta C-13(carb)) was analyzed in the Kamura section in order to document the oceanographic change in the superocean Panthalassa with respect to the mass extinction across the Guadalupian-Lopingian boundary (G-LB). The Iwato Formation is characterized mostly by unusually high positive delta C-13(carb) values of +4.9 to +6.2 parts per thousand| whereas the Mitai Formation by low positive values from + 1.9 to + 3.5 parts per thousand. The negative excursion occurred in three steps around the G-LB and the total amount of the negative shifts reached over 4 parts per thousand. A remarkably sharp drop in delta C-13(carb) values| for 2.4 parts per thousand from 5.3 down to 2.9 parts per thousand| occurs in a 2 m-thick interval of the topmost Iwato Formation| after all large-shelled fusulines and bivalves disappeared abruptly. Such a prominent high positive delta C-13(carb) plateau interval in the end-Guadalupian followed by a large negative shift across the G-LB was detected for the first time| and this trend in the mid-superoceanic sequence is correlated chemostratigraphically in part with the GSSP (Global Stratotype Section and Point) candidate for the G-LB in S. China. The present results prove that the end-Guadalupian event was doubtlessly global in context| affecting circum-Pangean basins| Tethys| and Panthalassa. The end-Guadalupian interval of a high positive plateau in delta C-13(carb) values over +5 parts per thousand is particularly noteworthy because it recorded an unusually high bio-productivity period that has not been known in the Permian. This end-Guadalupian high-productivity event| newly named "Kamura event"| suggests burial of a huge amount of organic carbon| draw-down of atmospheric CO2 and resultant global cooling at the end of Guadalupian| considerably after the Gondwana glaciation. The low temperatures during the Kamura event may have caused the end-Guadalupian extinction of large-shelled Tethyan fusulines and bivalves adapted to warm climate. On the other hand| the following event of ca. 4 parts per thousand negative shift in delta C-13(carb) values across the G-LB indicates a global warming in the early Lopingian. This may have allowed radiation of the new Wuchiapingian fauna| and this trend appears to have continued into the Mesozoic. These observations are in good agreement with the global sea-level curve in the Middle-Late Permian. The smooth and gradual pattern of the negative shift suggests that the causal mechanism was not of catastrophic nature (e.g. bolide impact| sudden melting of methane hydrate) but was long and continuous. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1436,2007,5,4,Abrupt climate change in southeast tropical Africa influenced by Indian monsoon variability and ITCZ migration,The timing and magnitude of abrupt climate change in tropical Africa during the last glacial termination remains poorly understood. High-resolution paleolimnological data from Lake Tanganyika| Southeast Africa show that wind-driven seasonal mixing in the lake was reduced during the Younger Dryas| Inter-Allerod Cool Period| Older Dryas| and Heinrich Event 1| suggesting a weakened southwest Indian monsoon and a more southerly position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over Africa during these intervals. These events in Lake Tanganyika| coeval with millennial and centennial-scale climate shifts in the high latitudes| suggest that changes in ITCZ location and Indian monsoon strength are important components of abrupt global climate change and that their effects are felt south of the equator in Africa. However| we observe additional events in Lake Tanganyika of equal magnitude that are not correlated with high-latitude changes| indicating the potential for abrupt climate change to originate from within tropical systems. 1375,2007,2,4,Accounting for temperature in predator functional responses,A rational mechanism that integrates temperature-mediated activity cycles into standard predator functional responses is presented. Daily temperature variations strongly influence times that predators can search for prey| and they affect the activity periods of prey| thereby modifying their detection by predators. Thus| key parameters in the functional response| the search time and the detection| become temperature-dependent. These temperature mediated responses are included in discrete-time population growth models| and it is shown how environmental temperature variations| such as those that may occur under global climate change| can affect population levels. As an illustration| a logistic growth model with a stochastic| temperature-dependent predation term is examined| and the response to both average temperature levels and temperature variability is quantified. We infer| through simulations| that predation and prey abundance are strongly affected by mean temperature| temperature amplitudes| and increasing uncertainty in predicting temperature levels and variation| thus confirming many qualitative conclusions in the ecological literature. In particular| we show that increased temperature variability increases oscillations in the system and leads to increased probability of extinction of the prey. 7848,2007,3,4,Accurate global thermophysical characterization of hydrofluoroethers through a statistical associating fluid theory variable range approach| based on new experimental high-pressure volumetric and acoustic data,In this work| the ability of a recently proposed statistical associating fluid theory of variable range (SAFT VR) version to estimate thermophysical properties of fluorinated compounds is demonstrated| focusing specially on second-order derivative properties. These properties are fundamental in the simulation and design of the industrial processes where these families of compounds find application as working fluids| but only very recently has their estimation been accomplished with the desired degree of accuracy| as they have been traditionally considered as a severely stringent test to any thermodynamic model. With this aim| a complete thermophysical characterization of two hydrofluoroethers| included among the so-called third generation of chlorofluorocarbon alternatives| with low global warming potential and zero ozone depletion potential| are presented. To achieve this goal| measurements of compressed-liquid densities and the speed of sound were performed in high-pressure conditions and set as the basis for the determination of molecular parameters of a version of the statistical associating fluid theory for chain molecules with attractive potentials of variable range (SAFT VR) equation of state. This coupling between accurate experimental determination of high pressures| density| and the speed of sound and the calculations of characteristic molecular parameters in the framework of a physically sound molecular model allows a complete description of the thermophysical behavior of the pure fluids studied| providing a precise simultaneous estimation of phase equilibria and other first- and second-order derivative properties| ensuring the reliability of the proposed characterization procedure. The relevance of the accurate experimental data is to be emphasized| as without the right experimental input| the applied model| accurate as it eventually is shown to be| would never achieve its maximum performance| as it will be discussed in the following. 7798,2007,3,3,Acid-catalyzed steam pretreatment of lodgepole pine and subsequent enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation to ethanol,Utilization of ethanol produced from biomass has the potential to offset the use of gasoline and reduce CO2 emissions. This could reduce the effects of global warming| one of which is the current outbreak of epidemic proprortins of the mountain pine beetle (MPB) in British Columbia (BC)| Canada. The result of this is increasing volumes of dead lodgedople pine with increasingly limited commercial uses. Bioconversion of lodgepole pine to ethanol using SO2- catalyzed steam expolsion was investigated. The optimum pretreatment condition for this feedstock was determined to be 200 degrees C| 5 min| and 4% SO2 (w/w)(.) Simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) of this material provided an overall ethanol yield of 77% of the theoretical yield from raw material based on starting glucan| mannan| and galactan| which corresponds to 244 g ethanol/kg raw material within 30 h. Three conditions to representing low (L)| medium (M)| and high (H) severity were also applied to health lodgepole pine. Although the M severity conditions of 200 degrees C| 5 min| and 4% SO2 were sufficiently robust to pretreat healthy wood| the substrate tested. BK lodgepole pine appears to be an excellent candidate for efficient and productive bioconversion to ethanol. 1417,2007,2,4,Adaptation planning for climate change: concepts| assessment approaches| and key lessons,Planned adaptation to climate change denotes actions undertaken to reduce the risks and capitalize on the opportunities associated with global climate change. This paper summarizes current thinking about planned adaptation. It starts with an explanation of key adaptation concepts| a description of the diversity of adaptation contexts| and a discussion of key prerequisites for effective adaptation. On the basis of this introduction| major approaches to climate impact and adaptation assessment and their evolution are reviewed. Finally| principles for adaptation assessment are derived from decision-analytical considerations and from the experience with past adaptation assessments. 8178,2007,2,4,Adaptive microevolutionary responses to simulated global warming in Simocephalus vetulus: a mesocosm study,Although several studies suggest the occurrence of microevolutionary responses that may allow local persistence of populations under global warming| rigorous experimental proof is lacking. Here| we combined the realism and rigid| replicated experimental design of a large-scale mesocosm study where populations of the zooplankter Simocephalus vetulus were exposed for 1 year to different global warming scenarios with a life table experiment under laboratory conditions at three temperatures that eliminated confounding| nongenetic factors. Our results provide solid proof for a rapid microevolutionary response to global warming in both survival and the subcomponents of individual performance (age at reproduction and number of offspring)| which may allow populations of S. vetulus to persist locally under predicted scenarios of global warming. Such microevolutionary responses may buffer changes in community structure under global warming and help explain the outcome of previous mesocosm studies finding only marginal effects of global warming at the community level. 8179,2007,3,4,Addressing the CO2 dilemma,Perspectives are offered for reducing the impact of huge amounts of CO2 produced today from power generation and transportation vehicles. The origins of the dilemma between the world's increasing use of hydrocarbons as an energy source and the cogeneration of CO2 which results as a co-product are discussed. Hydrocarbons will provide much of the fuel needs for these major| global industries for the next 20 years and meet 60% of the world's energy demand. With the growth of both power generation and transportation vehicles around the world| CO2 levels will continue to increase in the atmosphere. Renewables such as wind| dams| and biomass will not be able to handle all the energy demand. Technology breakthroughs are needed to reduce the world's dependence on fossil fuels| which will be aggravated by the drive to use more coal. Current approaches for removing CO2 are discussed as well as near term and future options with particular focus on how catalysis can offer some solutions. In particular| solar photocatalysis based approaches offer a potentially viable energy solution. 8124,2007,2,3,Advancing treeline and retreating glaciers: Implications for conservation in Yunnan| PR china,Historic climate data and repeat photographs were used to assess and document changes in alpine treeline and glacial recession in northwestern Yunnan| China. Results show that mean annual temperature in the last two decades of the 20th century has been increasing locally at a rate of 0.06 degrees C yr(-1) (P < 0.001). Furthermore| the annual trend is a result of both summer- and wintertime warming (0.037 degrees C yr(-1)| p < 0.001; and 0.036 degrees C yr(-1)| p < 0.001| respectively). Additionally| a local drying trend (-3.80 mm yr(-1); P < 0.001) was observed during the period 1955-1995. Repeat photos and supplemental measurements show that this warming is causing the retreat of glaciers and contributing to the elevational advance of alpine treeline. Fire| a traditional management tool used to halt the advance of woody species| has been suppressed since 1988. One consequence of these interactions is the encroachment of woody vegetation into alpine meadows| which will have negative impacts on plant species diversity and Tibetan livelihood. Two spatially and temporally distant anthropogenic actions| a rapidly warming climate and local land use policy| appear to be threatening both biodiversity and Tibetan livelihoods. Land managers need to recognize that global warming is occurring and adapt their conservation practices and policies to anticipate and be resilient to threats at all critical scales. 8244,2007,2,4,Agroecological and economic approach of prevention and curing of sandstorms in China,With the warming and drying of climate and desertification| sandstorms are occurring on a more frequent basis. In China| high-frequency regions of sandstorms tend to correspond with the spring wheat regions between the end of February and the end of March. During March to May each year| when sandstorms frequently occur| the seedlings of spring wheat are young and susceptible to being uprooted by the winds. There is not enough plant coverage or root depth at this early stage to hold the soil from the fierce winds. As a result| the young plant life is destroyed and leaving the top soil susceptible to being blown about when in the path of high-frequency regions of sandstorms. By contrast| the seeding time of winter wheat is about September-October corresponding to lowest- frequency period of sandstorms. From the end of February to the middle of March| the winter wheat begins to turn green (ahead of 10 day than grass). During March to May when sandstorm frequently occurs| the winter wheat has come into a mature tillering or jointing stage. By then| the leaf area index is 1-4 and height is up to 2050 cm| by which the loose soil is more compacted and covered with the fledging wheat. The result is that the energy of the air current is gradually dissipated and the wind speed near the ground is greatly weakened. So| without bare uncovered soil being whipped by powerful winds| the resulting sandstorms are greatly mitigated or weakened. After investigating the trend of global warming| the geological history-forming mechanism of sandstorms and their temporal-spatial distributions| and test for the last few years| the result is that by replacing spring wheat with winter wheat in high-frequency sandstorm regions| the damages of sandstorm are greatly reduced. Thus| by significantly increasing the vegetal cover time of ground during the windy season| one can alleviate the hazard index of sandstorms| which is a social| ecological and economic favorable result. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V. 8022,2007,3,4,All CO2 is equal in the atmosphere - A comment on CDM GHG accounting standards for methane recovery and oxidation projects,Greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting with respect to two categories of methane recovery and oxidation activities (coal bed or coal mine methane recovery and landfill gas (LFG) recovery) within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is analysed. It is found that baseline methodologies approved by the CDM Executive Board apply systematically inconsistent assumptions concerning the global warming impact of carbon dioxide emissions from the oxidation of methane. One important implication of the results is that applying the baseline methodologies approved for project activities involving LFG recovery will lead to overestimation of the net GHG abatement effect of such CDM project activities. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8354,2007,3,2,Allowable CO(2) concentrations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a function of the climate sensitivity probability distribution function,Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) in the climate system. Until recently| the consensus viewpoint was that the climate sensitivity ( the global mean equilibrium warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO(2) concentration) was 'likely' to fall between 1.5 and 4.5 K. However| a number of recent studies have generated probability distribution functions (pdfs) for climate sensitivity with the 95th percentile of the expected climate sensitivity as large as 10 K| while some studies suggest that the climate sensitivity is likely to fall in the lower half of the long-standing 1.5-4.5 K range. This paper examines the allowable CO(2) concentration as a function of the 95th percentile of the climate sensitivity pdf ( ranging from 2 to 8 K) and for the following additional assumptions: (i) the 50th percentile for the pdf of the minimum sustained global mean warming that causes unacceptable harm equal to 1.5 or 2.5 K; and (ii) 1%| 5% or 10% allowable risks of unacceptable harm. For a 1% risk tolerance and the more stringent harm-threshold pdf| the allowable CO(2) concentration ranges from 323 to 268 ppmv as the 95th percentile of the climate sensitivity pdf increases from 2 to 8 K| while for a 10% risk tolerance and the less stringent harm-threshold pdf| the allowable CO(2) concentration ranges from 531 to 305 ppmv. In both cases it is assumed that non-CO(2) GHG radiative forcing can be reduced to half of its present value| otherwise; the allowable CO(2) concentration is even smaller. Accounting for the fact that the CO(2) concentration will gradually fall if emissions are reduced to zero| and that peak realized warming will then be less than the peak equilibrium warming ( related to peak radiative forcing) allows the CO(2) concentration to peak at 10-40 ppmv higher than the limiting values given above for a climate sensitivity 95th percentile at 4.5 K. Even allowing for the difference between peak realized and peak equilibrium warming| and assuming that present non-CO(2) GHG forcing can be cut in half| a CO(2) concentration of 410 ppmv or less constitutes DAI for every combination of harm-threshold pdf and risk tolerance considered here if the 95th percentile of the climate sensitivity pdf is 4.5 K or greater. 8284,2007,2,4,Alpine proglacial suspended sediment dynamics in warm and cool ablation seasons: Implications for global warming,Data on suspended sediment dynamics and loads obtained from the Torrent du Glacier Noir| Ecrins Massif| SE France| during the unusually warm 2003 and cooler 2004 ablation seasons are used to indicate the likely future impacts of climate warming on suspended sediment transport processes in temperate Alpine proglacial zones. Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and discharge (Q) were continuously monitored for 16-day periods during July 2003 and July 2004. SSC was monitored by automated pump sampling during diurnal events in each season and supplemented by a 10 min turbidity record. Q was monitored at a range of flows and a rating curve used to convert a 10 min water level record into Q. Air temperature (AT) was also togged at 10 min intervals throughout the study. Comparison of the 2003 and 2004 monitoring periods showed that daily mean AT measured at the site was 1.2 degrees C higher in 2003| mean Q was 2.3 times higher| and the suspended sediment load (SSL) was between 3.1 and 4.1 times greater in July 2003 than for the same period in the 2004 ablation season. There is an increase in SSC during the 2004 observation period which is less apparent in 2003| most likely because higher ATs and consequently higher Q earlier in the 2003 melt season had removed available sediment before the study took place in July. The rating curve method for estimating SSL produced a total load for the 16-day study period in 2003 which| when corrected upwards to account for statistical bias| was 10314 +/- 743 t or 95% of the load estimated from the turbidity record for the same period. In 2004 the corrected SSC-Q rating curve estimate was 2504 +/- 126 t while the estimate from the turbidity record was 743 +/- 112 t though a more sensitive turbidity sensor produced a higher estimate of 3474 +/- 302 t. White the different SSL estimation methods in 2004 are not in perfect agreement| the contrast between the two seasons is nevertheless very clear| and is largely attributed to a mean monthly regional air temperature increase of similar to 2.0 degrees C over most of the 2003 ablation season. The 2003 SSL record| compared with 2004| can be used to gain an insight into the impact of higher air temperatures resulting from global warming on SSL. Such changes in SSLs have important implications for sediment transfer from mountain to piedmont zones| for stream ecology| for downstream channel stability and flood risk| and for the hydro-electric industry. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8190,2007,2,3,Altered soil microbial community at elevated CO2 leads to loss of soil carbon,Increased carbon storage in ecosystems due to elevated CO2 may help stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations and slow global warming. Many field studies have found that elevated CO2 leads to higher carbon assimilation by plants| and others suggest that this can lead to higher carbon storage in soils| the largest and most stable terrestrial carbon pool. Here we show that 6 years of experimental CO2 doubling reduced soil carbon in a scrub-oak ecosystem despite higher plant growth| offsetting approximate to 52% of the additional carbon that had accumulated at elevated CO2 in aboveground and coarse root biomass. The decline in soil carbon was driven by changes in soil microbial composition and activity. Soils exposed to elevated CO2 had higher relative abundances of fungi and higher activities of a soil carbon-degrading enzyme| which led to more rapid rates of soil organic matter degradation than soils exposed to ambient CO2. The isotopic composition of microbial fatty acids confirmed that elevated CO2 increased microbial utilization of soil organic matter. These results show how elevated CO2| by altering soil microbial communities| can cause a potential carbon sink to become a carbon source. 7764,2007,3,2,Alternative solution to global warming arising from CO2 emissions - partial neutralization of tropospheric H2CO3 with NH3,The impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions to global warming arising from the "greenhouse effect" is presented| and atmospheric fate of NH3 summarized. It is proposed that if the near-future attempts of the United Nations to restrict the emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels end up with failure| it would be a rational alternative to increase the contribution of anthropogenic NH3| the only alkaline gaseous molecule in the troposphere| so as to partly neutralize atmospheric carbonic acid in aerosols in the form of ammonium bicarbonate| which would be eventually swept away by precipitation to the oceans where the HCO3- species is stable. Thus| addition of ammonium N-compounds to infertile nonurban land| especially in the form of urea| is recommended to enable volatilization losses of NH3 to the atmosphere. (c) 2007 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog. 8131,2007,2,4,An ABA inducible WRKY gene integrates responses of creosote bush (Larrea tridentata) to elevated CO2 and abiotic stresses,The physiological and molecular responses of Larrea tridentata| an evergreen desert shrub| to elevated C02| and abiotic stresses were examined to enhance our understanding of the crosstalk of hormones| stresses| and elevated C02 in signaling. Under nonlimiting conditions of water and nutrients| elevated C02 increased both ABA and starch concentrations in leaves by two-fold. Combinations of elevated C02 and water deficit treatments further increased the concentrations of ABA| but not starch. A transcription factor| LtWRKY21| was cloned from Larrea tridentata to address questions regarding crosstalk at the molecular level. The expression of LtWRKY21 was enhanced by elevated C02| water deficit| high salinity| and wounding. In addition| ABA| jasmonic acid (JA)| and glucose induced the expression of LtWRKY21. However| cold and heat treatments decreased the wounding-induced LtWRKY21 mRNA level. Transient expression of LtVVRKY21 suggests that this transcription factor acts as an activator of ABA signaling and as a repressor of gibberellin (GA) signaling. These results suggest that LtWRKY21 might function as a key regulator of signaling networks in Larrea tridentata. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. 7783,2007,5,3,An attempt to quantify eustatic sea level fluctuations - A geological perspective,The complete meltdown of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets would raise the sea level 65 meters| whereas a partial meltdown only a few tens of meters. Eustatic sea level rates of changes in Greenland since 2003 show a net ice mass reduction of 96 gigatons per year; with this| geologists are called upon to add a historical perspective upon these changes. Pre-Neogene continental rearrangements occurred at numerous episodes| masking the net effects of eustatic level fluctuations. Glacial advance is prominent during late Precambrian| late Carboniferous and Pleistocene. Greenhouse events and temperature increases are evident during the Devonian and Cretaceous. Paleo-continental landmass positions reveal a direct relationship to icehouse and greenhouse events. The restriction of global oceanic circulation at the equator brings about icehouse events. Absolute rates of change for comparison purposes to the present are currently impossible due to the multivariate effects (1) tectonic plate motion world wide; (2) variations in sedimentary processes; (3) diagenetic change in sedimentary rock; (4) subsidence| on the resultant stratigraphic record. Since carbonate reefs reach the top of the subsea or photic zone| carbonate reef grow| t.| It is an ideal indicator of sea level change. Carbonate deposits at the Caribbean - South America plate boundary are a prime example that plate motion can greatly supersede sea level fluctuations. The best areas to use carbonate reef data is along the Florida-Babamas-Caribbean passive margins of the Atlantic basin| where Neogene tectonics and carbonate deposition were stable. The carbon dioxide levels were much greater above the K/T boundary| creating an environment devoid of significant carbonate buildups. The earliest significant quantitative sea-level rate of change data is derived from wells drilled into stable carbonate platforms of the late Neogene 2-7 Ma| when carbon dioxide levels decreased in the atmosphere. Cores show rates of paleo sea level rise averaging 10 to 20cm/100yr versus currently between 17-32cm/100yr. The rate increase has nearly doubled within the past 14 years. This increased rate of change in sea-level has been recently highlighted at the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Paris| France. In the past| rapid warming caused extreme increase in eustatic sea level rates of change reflected in geochemical data from carbonate Holocene reef cores from the west side of Barbados Island| drowned reefs off the Florida coast| and from Bermuda. The measuring sea level changes of 1-2m/100yr are evident from 13|000-17|000 years ago. The warming is attributed to solar irradiance at glacial maximum during the Wisconsinan 14|000-20|000 years before present when sea level was as much as -175 meters lower than today. This lowered sea level evidence is derived from Holocene reefs south of the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. Bluemle (2001) characterizes the Holocene as a sequence of ten or more global scale "little ice ages" fairly irregularly spaced| each lasting a few centuries and separated by global warming events shown from the ice core data. Friedman (2005) noted an overall cooling trend in ocean waters based on Red Sea beach rock geochemical data from 7|000 to 2|000 years ago. Through all the erratic temperature swings over the past 4|000 years geochemical data from Holocene reef cores from Florida show a sea level rise of 12cm/100yr.| typical of stable geological and climatological periods. The Questions remains: Is the current rate change of sea level significant or| just another unanswered anomaly from the cycle curve?. 7931,2007,3,4,An economic analysis and energy use in stake-tomato production in Tokat province of Turkey,The aim of this study is to determine the input output energy consumption and to make a cost analysis of intermediate type stake-tomato grown in open field in Tokat province of Turkey. The data used in the study were obtained from 98 local tomato growers using a questionnaire. The farms were chosen by random sampling method. The results showed that the amount of energy consumed in stake-tomato production was 96 957.36 MJ ha(-1). About 42% of this was generated by diesel oil and 38% from fertilizers and machinery. The input-output ratio was 0.80 and energy productivity was found to be 1.00kg MJ ha(-1). About 76% of the total energy inputs used in stake-tomato production was non-renewable while only about 22% was renewable. These findings reveal that intensive input use in stake-tomato production| especially chemical fertilizers| gives a high tomato yield but also raises some problems like environmental pollution and global warming. Thus| new policies| emphasizing energy consumption without degradation of national resources| should be designed for such farms. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8018,2007,3,4,An environmental assessment of wood and steel reinforced concrete housing construction,Wooden type of housing is ubiquitous in Japan. It is the main structure for housing; however| due to the increase in residential developments| steel reinforced concrete houses are also on the rise. This paper assesses the environmental impacts of these two types of construction. An evaluation of the two types of construction in terms of energy usage and air emissions is done. A comparison of the damage costs due to the generated emissions is also considered. Four types of emissions generated are evaluated| namely carbon emissions (CO2) nitrogen oxides (NOx)| sulfur oxides (SOx) and suspended particulate matter (SPM). The life cycle of the two different housing construction types is traced and environmental impacts are determined. External costs are also calculated. Furthermore| different improvement assessment scenarios are simulated to ascertain several emission reduction possibilities. The study looks into the emitted emissions from the housing construction to its final disposal of a typical residential development in Saga| Japan. Results show that much of the environmental impacts from building a house are on the Global Warming Potential due to high carbon emissions. Moreover| the construction phase generated the highest pollutant emissions from nitrogen oxides| sulfur oxides and suspended particulate matter. Steel reinforced concrete (SRC) construction has a higher environmental impact compared to the wooden type of housing construction. A longer design life for a residential house gives a reduction of about 14% in carbon emissions. Using solar energy for the operation phase has gained a reduction of 73% in the total life cycle carbon emissions. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7756,2007,2,4,An estimate of Atlantic Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) resources,An interhemispheric box model of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is modified by replacing the tropical box with two vertically resolved sub-domains. Seawater flows from large-scale ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) are allowed in one of the tropical sub-domains. Under present conditions and standardized OTEC operations| steady-state net power production density would reach a maximum of about 80 kW/km(2) (corresponding to 1.8 TW) with a cold seawater withdrawal per unit area of about 14 m/yr. This maximum reflects the impact of large OTEC flows on the oceanic thermal structure| although the THC would not be significantly affected. It is larger than a recently suggested worldwide value of the order of 30 kW/km(2) because of the relative strength of the Atlantic THC. Under asymmetric high-latitude warming scenarios potentially representative of current climatic trends| a substantial weakening or a reversal of the THC are possible. In the former case| recoverable OTEC resources could practically vanish. In the latter case| the emergence of a stronger reverse THC eventually could boost OTEC resources. Such events are hypothetical and would unfold over centuries| but the mere possibility of their occurrence challenges the accepted notion that OTEC resources are forever renewable. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1507,2007,4,4,An estimate of biogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds during summertime in China,Background and Aim. An accurate estimation of biogenic emissions of VOC (volatile organic compounds) is necessary for better understanding a series of current environmental problems such as summertime smog and global climate change. However| very limited studies have been reported on such emissions in China. The aim of this paper is to present an estimate of biogenic VOC emissions during summertime in China| and discuss its uncertainties and potential areas for further investigations. Materials and Methods. This study was mainly based on field data and related research available so far in China and abroad| including distributions of land use and vegetations| biomass densities and emission potentials. VOC were grouped into isoprene| monoterperies and other VOC (OVOC). Emission potentials of forests were determined for 22 genera or species| and then assigned to 33 forest ecosystems. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database was used as standard environmental conditions. A typical summertime of July 1999 was chosen for detailed calculations. Results and Discussion. The biogenic VOC emissions in China in July were estimated to be 2.3x 10(12)gC| with 42% as isoprene| 19% as monoterpenes and 39% as OVOC. About 77.3% of the emissions are generated from forests and woodlands. The averaged emission intensity was 4.11 MgC M-2 hr(-1) for forests and 1.12 MgC M-2 hr(-1) for all types of vegetations in China during the summertime. The uncertainty in the results arose from both the data and the assumptions used in the extrapolations. Generally| uncertainty in the field measurements is relatively small. A large part of the uncertainty mainly comes from the taxonomic method to assign emission potentials to unmeasured species| while the ARGR method serves to estimate leaf biomass and the emission algorithms to describe light and temperature dependence. Conclusions. This study describes a picture of the biogenic VOC emissions during summertime in China. Due to the uneven spatial and temporal distributions| biogenic VOC emissions may play all important role in the tropospheric chemistry during summertime. Recommendations and Perspectives. Further investigations are needed to reduce uncertainties involved in the related factors such as emission potentials| leaf biomass| species distribution as well as the mechanisms of the emission activities. Besides ground measurements| attention should also be placed on other techniques such as remotesensing and dynamic modeling. These new approaches| combined with ground measurements as basic database for calibration and evaluation| can hopefully provide more comprehensive information in the research of this field. 8172,2007,4,4,An evaluation of statistical models for downscaling precipitation and their ability to capture long-term trends,Large-scale changes in the sea-level pressure do not necessary reflect changes in the atmospheric moisture budget| and hence may not give a good representation of changes in precipitation as a result of a global warming. Statistical models that use both sea-level pressure and large-scale precipitation as predictors are evaluated for a number of locations in Fennoscandia. The statistical models in most cases were capable of capturing 60-80% of the year-to-year seasonal variations in precipitation| and a correlation analysis over independent data indicated predictive correlation scores in the range 0.2-0.5. A comparison between statistical models based on large-scale precipitation| sea-level pressure| and a mixture of these| indicated similar skills in terms of variance and predictive skill of inter-annual variations. Analyses of their ability to capture recent precipitation trends reveal potential problems regarding reconstructing long-term changes in the past. One explanation for the statistical models not giving similar past trend values as given by the station observations may be partly because the precipitation trends during the most recent 50 years are not well defined since the interval is not sufficiently long. This is supported by the fact that trend analysis for station observations based on two different data products| and different trend analysis strategies| do not correspond well with each other. An analysis for possible non-stationarities between large and local spatial scales does not indicate any significant presence of non-stationarities. Copyright (c) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. 8214,2007,5,4,An overview of the paleo-ENSO,Studies on paleo-ENSO in fields of paleocli mate| paleoceanography| geology and pal eobiology in recent decades were reviewed in this paper. Those works related to paleo-ENSO are reviewed in both observation and modeling studies| expecially in some specific warm or cool geological epochs| such as early-middle Holocene| Last Glacial| Last Interglacial and Eocene. Although a variety of uncertainties were still presented in paleo-ENSO research work| the mechanism for particularly weak El Nino variability during early-middle Holocene is investigated. Moreover| the paradoxes in other periods were categorized and addressed. Paleo-ENSO studies will improve the understanding of the interaction between ENSO cycle and climatological background| and will further complete ENSO dynamics so as to predict how El Nifio| the strongest signal that affects global climate on interannual time scale| will behave on the global warming background. 1586,2007,2,3,Analysis and prognosis of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific on the background of global warming,As revealed by the observational study| there are more tropical cyclones generated over the western North Pacific from the early 1950s to the early 1970s in the 20th century and less tropical cyclones from the mid-1970s to the present. The decadal change of tropical cyclones activities are closely related to the decadal changes of atmospheric general circulation in the troposphere| which provide favorable or unfavorable conditions for the formation of tropical cyclone. Furthermore| based on the simulation of corresponding atmospheric general circulation from a coupled climate model under the schemes of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and B emissions scenarios an outlook on the tropical cyclone frequency generated over the western North Pacific in the coming half century is presented. It is indicated that in response to the global climate change the general circulation of atmosphere would become unfavorable for the formation of tropical cyclone as a whole and the frequency of tropical cyclones formation would likely decrease by 5% within the next half century| although more tropical cyclones would appear during a short period in it. 1409,2007,2,4,Analysis of an EST library from the dinoflagellate (Symbiodinium sp.) symbiont of reef-building corals,Dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium sp. Freud.) are an obligatory endosymbiont of the reef-building corals. Recent changes to the environment surrounding coral reefs (e.g.| global warming) have demonstrated that this endosymbiotic relationship between corals and Symbiodinium is particularly sensitive to environmental changes. Therefore| understanding gene expression patterns of Symbiodinium is critical to understanding why coral reefs are susceptible to global climate change. This study identified 1456 unique expression sequence tags (ESTs) generated for Symbiodinium (clade C3) from the staghorn coral Acropora aspera following exposure to a variety of stresses. Of these| only 10% matched previously reported dinoflagellate ESTs| suggesting that the conditions used in the construction of the library resulted in a novel transcriptome. The function of 561 (44%) of these ESTs could be identified. The majority of these genes coded for proteins involved in posttranslational modification| protein turnover| and chaperones (12.3%); energy production and conversion (12%); or an unknown function (18.6%). The most common transcript found was a homologue to a bacterial protein of unknown function. This algal protein is targeted to the chloroplast and is present in those phototrophs that acquired plastids from the red algal lineage. An additional 48 prokaryote-like proteins were also identified| including the first glycerol-phosphate:phosphate antiporter from dinoflagellates. A protein with similarity to the fungi-archael-bacterial heme catalase peroxidases was also found. A variety of stress genes| in particular heat-shock proteins and proteins involved in ubiquitin cascades| were also identified. This study is the first transcriptome from the unicellular component of a eukaryote-eukaryote symbiosis. 1366,2007,2,4,Annual cycle and diversity of species and infraspecific taxa of ceratium (dinophyceae) in the ligurian sea| northwest mediterranean,We examined the well-documented and species-rich dinoflagellate genus Ceratium Schrank in the northwest Mediterranean Sea as a possible model for marine phytoplankton diversity and as a biological indicator of global climate change. First| we investigated the influence of counting effort; we then documented temporal changes in Ceratium specific and infraspecific taxa over 2 years (2002 and 2003) in the Villefranche Bay based on a monthly net sampling. Finally| we tried to identify factors associated with shifts in biodiversity. The calculation of taxonomic diversity| regularity| and richness were highly dependent on counting effort. We determined that a minimal sample volume of similar to 70 L was needed to obtain a good estimation of species richness. The annual cycle was characterized by a seasonal trend of high winter species richness followed by low spring biodiversity. Infraspecific variability not only appeared to depend on water temperature but also seemed to be influenced by bottom-up control and was strongly affected by top-down control. Thus| the occurrence of high concentrations of salps (Thalia democratica) and copepods larger than 2 mm (Calanus helgolandicus) coincided with a drastic decrease of Ceratium abundance and diversity during spring 2003. Ceratium is sensitive to both abiotic and biotic factors and could prove to be a good candidate as a biological indicator of global change. 7790,2007,2,2,Annular modes and Hadley cell expansion under global warming,Projections of 21st century climate from the latest state-of-the-art climate models consistently call for a poleward expansion of the tropical Hadley cell (HC) and subtropical dry zones (SDZ) in response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. We find that approximately half of the model-simulated HC and SDZ expansion during the next hundred years can be explained by positive trends in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere annular modes (NAM and SAM)| implying a close connection between changes in the tropical and extratropical atmospheric circulation. The link between NAM and SAM variability and the SDZ expansion suggests that future changes in the hydrologic cycle are likely to be strongly influenced by atmospheric dynamics. 1495,2007,2,4,Anthropogenic and natural disturbance effects on a macrobenthic estuarine community over a 10-year period,For some decades| the Mondego estuary has been under severe ecological stress| mainly caused by eutrophication. The most visible effect was the occurrence of macroalgal blooms and the concomitant decrease of the area occupied by Zostera noltii beds. Since the end of 1998| mitigation measures were implemented in the estuary to promote the recovery of the seagrass beds and the entire surrounding environment. The present study offers a unique opportunity to evaluate the impact of disturbance and the success of the initial recovery process (before and after implementation of the management measures)| over a 10-year period| having secondary production as the descriptor. Before the implementation of the mitigation measures| in parallel with the decrease of the Z. noltii beds| species richness| mean biomass and production also decreased| lowering the carrying capacity of the whole Mondego's south arm. Yet| after the introduction of management measures| the seagrass bed seemed to recover. Consequently| the biomass and production also increased substantially| for the whole intertidal area. Nevertheless| even after the mitigation measures implementation| natural-induced stressors| such as strong flood events induced a drastic reduction of annual production| not seen before the implementation of those measures. This shows that the resilience of the populations may have been lowered by a prior disturbance history (eutrophication) and consequent interactions of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8235,2007,3,4,Application of Carbon Dioxide in a Transcritical Refrigeration Cycle,During the last century| the refrigeration industry was forced to change refrigerant technology due to commitments to the Montreal protocol. The industry is redesigning technology towards the application of new environment friendly refrigerants that may be used fora longer period. Refrigerants Should be chlorine free| which means that they do not have impact on the ozone layer| and at the same time they should have low global warming potential. Emphasis in this paper is given to the use of carbon-dioxide R744 and ammonia R717 because of their low impact oil the atmosphere. The cascade system technology is known with CO2 as the refrigerant in the first stage and NH3 as the refrigerant in the second stage of the cascade. This paper elaborates the use of CO2 in the transcritical area| i.e. above the critical point where there is no vapour condensation. The paper deals also with problems connected with high working pressure of CO2 thermodynamic properties and design of transcritical heat pumps and their components. Compared to other refrigerants| CO2 has one specific property: low critical temperature 31|1 degrees C at 73|8 bar. The operating pressure for gas cooling will be extremely high| above 100 bar. In the subcritical area the enthalpy change is influenced by the temperature change| while in transcritical area enthalpy change is affected by pressure. In the transcritical area| the coefficient of performance may be controlled by the refrigerant pressure after compression. 8117,2007,3,4,Applying distance-to-target weighing methodology to evaluate the environmental performance of bio-based energy| fuels| and materials,The enhanced use of biomass for the production of energy| fuels| and materials is one of the key strategies towards sustainable production and consumption. Various life cycle assessment (LCA) studies demonstrate the great potential of bio-based products to reduce both the consumption of non-renewable energy resources and greenhouse gas emissions. However| the production of biomass requires agricultural land and is often associated with adverse environmental effects such as eutrophication of surface and ground water. Decision making in favor of or against bio-based and conventional fossil product alternatives therefore often requires weighing of environmental impacts. In this article| we apply distance-to-target weighing methodology to aggregate LCA results obtained in four different environmental impact categories (i.e.| non-renewable energy consumption| global warming potential| eutrophication potential| and acidification potential) to one environmental index. We include 45 bio- and fossil-based product pairs in our analysis| which we conduct for Germany. The resulting environmental indices for all product pairs analyzed range from - 19.7 to +0.2 with negative values indicating overall environmental benefits of bio-based products. Except for three options of packaging materials made from wheat and cornstarch| all bio-based products (including energy| fuels| and materials) score better than their fossil counterparts. Comparing the median values for the three options of biomass utilization reveals that bio-energy (-1.2) and bio-materials (-1.0) offer significantly higher environmental benefits than bio-fuels (-0.3). The results of this study reflect| however| subjective value judgments due to the weighing methodology applied. Given the uncertainties and controversies associated not only with distance-to-target methodologies in particular but also with weighing approaches in general| the authors strongly recommend using weighing for decision finding only as a supplementary tool separately from standardized LCA methodology. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8017,2007,2,4,Are pikas exposed to and affected by selenium deficiency?,Regional extirpations of pikas (Ochatona princeps) within the last few decades have been attributed to global warming. Other recent global alterations such as increased nitrogen (N) deposition and associated selenium (Se) deficiency may further stress pikes populations. In 2003 and 2004; we live-trapped pikas from three populations in Wyoming and measured Se values in their hair. We also sampled hair and liver froth museum specimens collected throughout the Northern Rocky Mountains in 1987 and 1988. Our results suggest that liver and hair values were related| and that pikes hair reflected the Se concentrations of the geologic parent materials. We determined that animals residing in several remote areas in the Rocky Mountain region could be Se deficient and that increase in N deposition correlated with an increase rather than a decrease in Se values in pika hair. In addition| we found no relation between Se contents in hair and body condition index| suggesting that low Se levels may not have negative effects on individual pikas. Whether Se levels influence reproductive success of pikas is unknown and should be the focus of future studies. 8321,2007,3,3,Are shorter work hours good for the environment? A comparison of US and European energy consumption,European employees work fewer hours per year| and use less energy per person| than their American counterparts. This article compares the European and U.S. models of labor productivity| supply| and energy consumption. It finds that if employees in the EU-15 worked as many hours as those in the United States| they would consume at least 15 percent more energy. This aspect of the debate over Europe's economic model reaches globally. Over the coming decades| developing countries will decide how to make use of their increasing productivity. If| by 2050| the world works as do Americans| total energy consumption could be 15 to 30 percent higher than it would be if following a more European model. Translated directly into higher carbon emissions| this could mean an additional 1 to 2 degrees Celsius in global warming. 1439,2007,3,2,Assessing mitigation-adaptation scenarios for reducing catastrophic climate risk,Countries can use both mitigation and adaptation strategies to protect their citizens from catastrophic risk posed by climate change (e.g.| shift in the jet stream). A nation can mitigate by reducing CO2 emissions| which reduces the probability of a catastrophic event; it can adapt by altering the infrastructure so that damages can be reduced in the event a catastrophe is realized. Herein we add to the current literature by extending the endogenous risk framework into a dynamic framework permitting analysis of both mitigation and adaptation while allowing for the dynamic process of global climate change. Our results suggest adaptation to catastrophe is a small fraction of the national climate protection budget relative to mitigation when nations cooperate fully| when damages are both continuous and catastrophic| and when nations have a short planning horizon. Adaptation becomes more important relative to mitigation when nations are unlikely to cooperate| when damages are mainly catastrophic| or when the nation's planning horizon increases. 7814,2007,2,4,Assessing the relationship between extensive use of organochlorine pesticides and cooling trend during the mid-20th century in the southeastern United States,In contrast to global warming| temperatures in the southeastern United States have exhibited a decreasing trend of up to 1-2 degrees C over the last century. We investigated the relationship between this cooling trend and the extensive use of organochlorine pesticides-particularly dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) and toxaphene-in the southeastern U.S. from the mid-1940s through the 1970s. Based on annual use and soil residue estimates| it is shown that enthalpies associated with the endothermic evaporation of pesticides from soil resulted in surface temperature decreases of up to -0.2 degrees C. This is the first study to show the inverse correlation between surface air temperature and pesticide use. These findings highlight the potential contribution of the extensive use of organochlorine pesticides to changes in the surface air temperature| especially in regions of intensive agriculture and pesticide use. 7731,2007,2,3,Assessment of future change in intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for southern Quebec using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM),Intensity-duration-frequency curves are used extensively in engineering to assess the return periods of rainfall events. The estimation and use of IN curves rely on the hypothesis of rainfall series stationarity| namely that intensities and frequencies of extreme hydrological events remain unchanged over time. It is however expected that global warming will modify the occurrence of extreme rainfall events. In order to assess how extreme rainfall events will be modified in a future climate| an analysis of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) simulations under control (1961-1990) and future (20412070) climates was performed. May to October annual maximum (MOAM) rainfall for 2-| 6-| 12- and 24-h durations were extracted and analyzed using regional frequency analysis for grid boxes covering the Southern Quebec region. Comparison with available rainfall records shows that CRCMestimates are consistent with those based on observed data considering the different spatial scales related to observed data (meteorological stations) and to simulated ones (grid boxes). Comparison of regional estimates in control and future climate at the grid box scale reveals that return periods of 2- and 6-h events will approximately halve in future climate while they will decrease by a third for 12- and 24-h events. Regional IN curves at the grid box and the station scales are proposed. The analysis of spatial correlation of simulated MOAM series in control and future climates for the region under study suggests that| for a given duration| spatial correlations will decrease in a future climate suggesting that annual extreme rainfall events may result from more convective (and thus more localized) weather systems. Multi-model ensemble systems (different GCMs with different RCMs) as well as multi-member ensembles (investigation of possible sensitivity to initial conditions) are needed to investigate the impact of model structures on future change in extreme rainfalls. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1406,2007,2,4,Assessment of the severe weather environment in North America simulated by a global climate model,Annual and seasonal cycles of convectively important atmospheric parameters for North America have been computed using the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) Global Climate Model using a decade of CCSM3 data. Results for the spatial and temporal distributions of environments conducive to severe convective weather qualitatively agree with observational estimates from NCAR/NCEP global reanalyses| although the model underestimates the frequency of occurrence of severe weather environments. This result demonstrates the possibility for future studies aimed at determining possible changes in the distribution of severe weather environments associated with global climate change. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society 7909,2007,2,4,Asymmetry of tropical precipitation change under global warming,A clear trend of tropical precipitation changes induced by global warming is found in hemispherical averages of most climate model simulations as well as from observation. It is observed that in response to global warming| an asymmetric pattern develops between tropical precipitation changes in the northern and southern hemispheres| and this asymmetry is locked with the seasonal cycle of tropical convection. In boreal summer ( winter)| the northern hemispherical average departure from tropical mean increases ( decreases)| while the departure of the southern hemispherical average decreases ( increases). This implies an enhanced seasonal precipitation range between rainy and dry seasons and an increased precipitation difference between northern and southern hemispheres. 8001,2007,2,2,Atmospheric aerosols versus greenhouse gases in the twenty-first century,Looked at in a simplistic way| aerosols have counteracted the warming effects of greenhouse gases (GHG) over the past century. This has not only provided some climate protection'| but also prevented the true magnitude of the problem from becoming evident. In particular| it may have resulted in an underestimation of the sensitivity of the climate system to the effect of GHG. Over the present century| the role of aerosols in opposing global warming will wane| as there are powerful policy reasons to reduce their emissions and their atmospheric lifetimes are short in contrast to those of the GHG. On the other hand| aerosols will continue to play a role in regional climate change| especially with regard to the water cycle. The end of significant climate protection by atmospheric aerosols| combined with the potentially very high sensitivity of the climate system| makes sharp and prompt reductions in greenhouse gas emissions| especially CO2| very urgent. 7815,2007,4,4,Atmospheric chemistry of 2-ethoxy-3|3|4|4|5-pentafluorotetra-hydro-2|5-bis[1|2|2|2-tetrafluoro-1-(trifluoromethyl)ethyl]-furan: Kinetics| mechanisms| and products of CL atom and OH radical initiated oxidation,Smog chamber/FTIR techniques were used to study the atmospheric chemistry of the title compound which we refer to as RfOC2H5. Rate constants of k(CI + RfOC2H5) = (2.70 0.36) x 10(-12)| MOH + RfOC2H5) = (5.93 +/- 0.85) x 10(-14)| and k(CI + RfOCHO) = (1.34 +/- 0.20) x 10-14 cm(3) molecule(-1) S-1 were measured in 700 Torr of N-2| or air| diluent at 294 +/- 1 K. From the value of k(OH + RfOC2H5)the atmospheric lifetime of RfOC2H5 was estimated to be 1 year. Two competing loss mechanisms for RfOCH(O center dot)CH3 radicals were identified in 700 Torr of N-2/O-2 diluent at 294 I K; decomposition via C-C bond scission giving a formate (RfOCHO)| or reaction with 02 giving an acetate (RfOC(O)CH3)- In 700 Torr of N-2/O-2 diluent at 294 +/- 1 K the rate constant ratio kO(2)/k(diss) = (1.26 +/- 0.74) x 10(-19) cm(3) molecule(-1). The OH radical initiated atmospheric oxidation of RfOC2H5 gives RfOCHO and RfOC(O)CH3 as major products. RfOC2H5 has a global warming potential of approximately 55 for a 100 year horizon. The results are discussed with respect to the atmospheric chemistry and environmental impact of RfOC2H5. 8106,2007,3,3,Atmospheric chemistry of CF3CF=CH2: Kinetics and mechanisms of gas-phase reactions with Cl atoms| OH radicals| and O-3,Long path length FTIR-smog chamber techniques were used to determine k(Cl + CF3CF=CH2) = (7.03 +/- 0.59) x 10(-11) k(OH + CF3CF=CH2) = (1.05 +/- 0.17) x 10(-12)| and k(O-3 + CF3CF=CH2) = (2.77 +/- 0.21) x 10(-21) cm(3) molecule' s(-1) in 700 Torr of N-2| N-2/O-2| or air diluent at 296 K. CF3CF=CH2 has an atmospheric lifetime of approximately 11 days and a global warming potential (100 yr time horizon) of four. CF3CF=CH2 has a negligible global warming potential and will not make any significant contribution to radiative forcing of climate change. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7852,2007,3,3,Atmospheric chemistry of the Z and E isomers of CF3CF=CHF; Kinetics| mechanisms| and products of gas-phase reactions with Cl atoms| OH radicals| and O-3,Smog chamber/FTIR techniques were used to study the atmospheric chemistry of the Z and E isomers of CF3CF=CHF| which we refer to as CF3CF=CHF(Z) and CF3CF=CHF(E). The rate constants k(Cl + CF3CF=CHF(Z)) = (4.36 +/- 0.48) x 10(-11)| k(OH + CF3CF=CHF(Z)) = (1.22 +/- 0.14) x 10(-12)| and k(O-3 + CF3CF=CHF(Z)) = (1.45 +/- 0.15) x 10(-21) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) were determined for the Z isomer of CF3CF=CHF in 700 Torr air diluent at 296 +/- 2 K. The rate constants k(Cl + CF3CF=CHF(E)) = (5.00 +/- 0.56) x 10(-11)| k(OH + CF3CF=CHF(E)) = (2.15 +/- 0.23) x 10(-12)| and k(O-3 + CF3CF=CHF(E)) = (1.98 +/- 0.15) x 10(-20) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) were determined for the E isomer of CF3CF=CHF in 700 Torr air diluent at 296 2 K. Both the Cl-atom and OH-radical-initiated atmospheric oxidation of CF3CF=CHF give CF3C(O)F and HC(O)F in molar yields indistinguishable from 100% for both the Z and E isomer. CF3CF=CHF(Z) has an atmospheric lifetime of approximately 18 days and a global warming potential (100 year time horizon) of approximately 6. CF3CF=CHF(E) has an atmospheric lifetime of approximately 10 days and a global warming potential (100 year time horizon) of approximately 3. CF3CF=CHF has a negligible global warming potential and will not make any significant contribution to radiative forcing of climate change. 7965,2007,4,4,Atmospheric chemistry of trans-CF3CH = CHF: Kinetics of the gas-phase reactions with Cl atoms| OH radicals| and O-3,Long path length FTIR-smog chamber techniques were used to measure k(Cl + t-CF3CH = CHF) = (4.64 +/- 0.59) x 10(-11)| k(OH + t-CF3CH = CHF) = (9.25 +/- 1.72) x 10(-13)| and k(O-3 + t-CF3CH = CHF) = (2.81 +/- 0.21) x 10(-21) cm(3) molecule(-1) S-1 in 700 Torr of air diluent at 296 K. The atmospheric lifetime of t-CF3CH = CHF is determined by its reaction with OH and is approximately two weeks. t-CF3CH = CHF has an integrated IR absorption cross section (650-2000 cm(-1)) of(1.94 +/- 0.10) x 10(-16) cm molecule(-1) and a global warming potential of approximately 6 (100-year time horizon). As part of this work the reaction of ozone with C2H4 was determined to proceed with a rate constant of (1.46 +/- 0.13) x 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) in 700 Torr of air at 296 K. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V. 8169,2007,4,4,Atmospheric trends and radiative forcings of CF(4) and C(2)F(6) inferred from firn air,The atmospheric histories of two potent greenhouse gases| tetrafluoromethane (CF(4)) and hexafluoroethane (C(2)F(6))| have been reconstructed for the 20th century based on firn air measurements from both hemispheres. The reconstructed atmospheric trends show that the mixing ratios of both CF(4) and C(2)F(6) have increased during the 20th century by factors of similar to 2 and similar to 10| respectively. Initially| the increasing mixing ratios coincided with the rise in primary aluminum production. However| a slower atmospheric growth rate for CF(4) appears to be evident during the 1990s| which supports recent aluminum industry reports of reduced CF(4) emissions. This work illustrates the changing relationship between CF(4) and C(2)F(6) that is likely to be largely the result of both reduced emissions from the aluminum industry and faster growing emissions of C(2)F(6) from the semiconductor industry. Measurements of C(2)F(6) in the older firn air indicate a natural background mixing ratio of < 0.3 parts per trillion (ppt)| demonstrating that natural sources of this gas are negligible. However| CF(4) was deduced to have a preindustrial mixing ratio of 34 +/- 1 ppt (similar to 50% of contemporary levels). This is in good agreement with the previous work of Harnisch et al. (18) and provides independent confirmation of their results. As a result of the large global warming potentials of CF(4) and C(2)F(6)| these results have important implications for radiative forcing calculations. The radiative forcings of CF(4) and C(2)F(6) are shown to have increased over the past 50 years to values in 2001 of 4.1 x 10(-3) Wm(-2) and 7.5 x 10(-4) Wm(-2)| respectively| relative to preindustrial concentra tions. These forcings are small compared to present day forcings due to the major greenhouse gases but| if the current trends continue| they will continue to increase since both gases have essentially infinite lifetimes. There is| therefore| a large incentive to reduce perfluorocarbon emissions such that| through the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol| the atmospheric growth rates may decline in the future. 7768,2007,2,4,Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit is critical in predicting growth response of "cool-season" grass Festuca arundinacea to temperature change,There is a lack of information on plant response to multifactor environmental variability including the interactive response to temperature and atmospheric humidity. These two factors are almost always confounded because saturated vapor pressure increases exponentially with temperature| and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) could have a large impact on plant growth. In this study using climate controlled mini-greenhouses| we examined the interacting influence of temperature and VPD on long-term growth of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb)| a cool season grass. From past studies it was expected that growth of tall fescue would decline with warmer temperatures over the range of 18.5-27 degrees C| but growth actually increased markedly with increasing temperature when VPD was held constant. In contrast| growth declined in experiments where tall fescue was exposed to increasing VPD and temperature was held constant at 21 degrees C. The inhibited growth appears to be|in response to a maximum transpiration rate that can be supported by the tall fescue plants. The sensitivity to VPD indicates that if VPD remains stable in future climates as it has in the past| growth of tall fescue could well be stimulated rather than decreased by global warming in temperate climate zones. 8067,2007,2,4,Atoll island vulnerability to flooding and inundation revealed by historical reconstruction: Fongafale Islet| Funafuti Atoll| Tuvalu,The reef islands formed on coral atolls are generally small| low| and flat| with elevations of only a few meters. These islands are thus highly vulnerable to elevated sea levels caused by extreme events and global warming. Such vulnerability was recently evidenced at Fongafale Islet| the capital of Tuvalu| when it flooded during accelerated spring high tides possibly related to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many factors| not only environmental but also economic and social| determine the vulnerability of an island to sea level rise. In this study| we used data spanning 108 yrs to reconstruct changes in topography| land use/cover| population| and the distribution of buildings at Fongafale Islet. The results indicate that the vulnerability of Fongafale Islet relates to its original landform characteristics: the central part of the island was formerly dominated by swampland that flooded at high tides. Fongafale Islet experienced greater population in-migration and centralization beginning in the 1970s following the independence of Tuvalu and Kiribati. Migrants were also responding to declines in overseas mining operations and limited options for paid employment. As the population increased| construction took place in vulnerable swampland areas. Our results clearly demonstrate that examinations of global environmental issues should focus on characteristics specific to the region of interest. These characteristics should be specified using historical reconstruction to understand and address the vulnerability of an area to global environmental changes. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 7923,2007,4,2,Australian climate change projections derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report,In this study| we present climate change projections based on the results from 23 climate model simulations performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. Statistical methods are used to test how well each model simulated observed average (1961-1990) patterns of mean sea-level pressure| temperature and rainfall over the Australian region. The 15 models with the highest pattern correlations and smallest rms errors are identified. The 21st century simulations are driven by the IPCC 'SRES' greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenarios. Using the 15 best climate models| annual and seasonal average projections of Australian rainfall and temperature change are derived for various decades. Results are highlighted for 2030 and 2070 for comparison with projections published by CSIRO in 2001. The projections are expressed as ranges| incorporating uncertainty in both global warming and regional differences between climate simulations over Australia. Inland regions show greater warming| compared to coastal regions. There are large decreases in the number of days below 0 degrees C and large increases in the number of days above 35 degrees C or 40 degrees C. Rainfall changes are more complex than temperature changes. Although increases and decreases in rainfall are projected in the future| decreases dominate the overall pattern| especially in the south in winter and spring. CSIRO's earlier projections| based on nine climate models| appear robust when compared with the updated projections. The patterns and magnitudes of warming are similar| although the updated projections have slightly less warming in coastal regions. The pattern of rainfall change is also similar| particularly the strong decrease in winter and spring over southern Australia| but the updated projections give a more widespread tendency for increases in summer in eastern Australia and a clearer tendency for decreases in autumn in Queensland and the eastern Northern Territory. 8274,2007,2,1,Avoiding self-organized extinction: Toward a co-evolutionary economics of sustainability,The critical problems that scientists warned about decades ago are now upon us. There is a near universal consensus that global warming is human-caused and that its effects are now accelerating. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem disruption is now well-documented. The global connections between social disruption| resource use and environmental degradation are now all too familiar. This information is all the more disturbing in view of the well-documented collapse of scores of past civilizations whose cultural patterns of behaviour have been described as 'self-organized' extinction. Policies to deal with the issues of sustainability have been hampered by a one-dimensional economic theory that has until recently dominated pubic discourse. Using the concept of 'generalized Darwinism'| this paper focuses on the contributions a revitalized science of economics can bring to the sustainability debate. It ends with a cautiously pessimistic assessment of the prospects for sustainability. 7747,2007,2,4,Bacterial metabolism in small temperate streams under contemporary and future climates,1. We examined the detailed temperature dependence (0-40 degrees C) of bacterial metabolism associated with fine sediment particles from three Danish lowland streams to test if temperature dependence varied between sites| seasons and quality of organic matter and to evaluate possible consequences of global warming. 2. A modified Arrhenius model with reversible denaturation at high temperatures could account for the temperature dependence of bacterial metabolism and the beginning of saturation above 35 degrees C and it was superior to the unmodified Arrhenius model. Both models overestimated respiration rates at very low temperatures (< 5 degrees C)| whereas Ratkowsky's model - the square root of respiration - provided an excellent linear fit between 0 and 30 degrees C. 3. There were no indications of differences in temperature dependence among samples dominated by slowly or easily degradable organic substrates. Optimum temperature| apparent minimum temperature| Q(10)-values for 0-40 degrees C and activation energies of bacterial respiration were independent of season| stream site and degradability of organic matter. 4. Q(10)-values of bacterial respiration declined significantly with temperature (e.g. 3.31 for 5-15 degrees C and 1.43 for 25-35 degrees C) and were independent of site and season. Q(10)-values of bacterial production behaved similarly| but were significantly lower than Q(10)-values of respiration implying that bacterial growth efficiency declined with temperature. 5. A regional warming scenario for 2071-2100 (IPCC A2) predicted that mean annual temperatures will increase by 3.5 degrees C in the air and 2.2-4.3 degrees C in the streams compared with the control scenario for 1961-1990. Temperature is expected to rise more in cool groundwater-fed forest springs than in open| summer-warm streams. Mean annual bacterial respiration is estimated to increase by 26-63% and production by 18-41% among streams assuming that established metabolism-temperature relationships and organic substrate availability remain the same. To improve predictions of future ecosystem behaviour| we further require coupled models of temperature| hydrology| organic production and decomposition. 7755,2007,5,3,Barite accumulation| ocean productivity| and Sr/Ba in barite across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)| ca. 55 Ma| was a period of extreme global warming caused by rapid emission of greenhouse gases. It is unknown what ended this episode of greenhouse warming| but high oceanic export productivity over thousands of years (as indicated by high accumulation rates of barium| Ba) may have been a factor in ending this warm period by carbon sequestration. However| Ba has a short oceanic residence time (similar to 10 k.y.)| so a prolonged global increase in Ba accumulation rates requires an increase in input of Ba to the ocean| increasing barite saturation. We use a novel proxy for barite saturation (Sr/Ba in marine barite) to demonstrate that the seawater saturation state with respect to barite did not change across the PETM. The observations of increased barite burial| no change in saturation| and the short residence time can be reconciled if Ba burial decreased at continental margin and shelf sites due to widespread occurrence of suboxic conditions| leading to Ba release into the water column| combined with increased biological export production at some pelagic sites| resulting in Ba sink reorganization. 8053,2007,2,4,Benefits to shorebirds from invasion of a non-native shellfish,Introductions of non-native species are seen as major threats to ecosystem function and biodiversity. However| invasions of aquatic habitats by non-native species are known to benefit generalist consumers that exhibit dietary switches and prey upon the exotic species in addition to or in preference to native ones. There is| however| little knowledge concerning the population-level implications of such dietary changes. Here| we show that the introduction of the Manila clam Tapes philippinarum into European coastal waters has presented the Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus ostralegus with a new food resource and resulted in a previously unknown predator-prey interaction between these species. We demonstrate| with an individuals-based simulation model| that the presence of this non-native shellfish| even at the current low density| has reduced the predicted over-winter mortality of oystercatchers at one recently invaded site. Further increases in clam population density are predicted to have even more pronounced effects on the density dependence of oystercatcher over-winter mortality. These results suggest that if the Manila clam were to spread around European coastal waters| a process which is likely to be facilitated by global warming| this could have considerable benefits for many shellfish-eating shorebird populations. 7726,2007,2,4,Bioclimatic limits and range shifts of cold-hardy evergreen broad-leaved species at their northern distributional limit in Europe,The few native evergreen broad-leaved species occurring in central Europe have attracted the interest of generations of scientists; thus| the factors limiting their northern distribution have been well studied. For investigation of climate change-driven range shifts| these climate-sensitive species are particularly well suited. We here analyse recent range shifts of some of the cold-hardiest evergreen broad-leaved species| including both native and introduced species in Europe. Based on updated field data and outputs from bioclimatic models| we show that the milder winter conditions of the last few decades are consistent with the northward expansion of potential ranges and an increase in the number of evergreen broad-leaved species. At the landscape scale| these species indicate a considerable change in the composition and structure of temperate deciduous forests in various parts of Europe. 1362,2007,3,3,Biodegradability of biomass pyrolysis oils: Comparison to conventional petroleum fuels and alternatives fuels in current use,Concern with environmental issues such as global climate change has stimulated research into the development of more environmentally friendly technologies and energy sources. One critical area of our economy is liquid fuels. Fast pyrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass for liquids production is of particular concern| as it is one of the most interesting ways to produce renewable liquid fuel for transport and heat and power production. The aerobic biodegradability of various pyrolysis oils from different origins and of a EN 590 diesel sample was examined using the Modified Sturm (OECD 301B). The results demonstrate that all fast pyrolysis oils assessed are biodegradable with similar shaped curves with 41-50% biodegradation after 28 days| whereas the diesel sample reached only 24% biodegradation. Since pyrolysis oils achieved biodegradability over 20% these are classified as inherently biodegradable. Modelling of biodegradation processes was successfully performed with a first-order chemical reaction. The biodegradability results obtained for biomass pyrolysis oils are compared to those of conventional and alternative fuels. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8137,2007,3,2,Biofixation of carbon dioxide by Spirulina sp and Scenedesmus obliquus cultivated in a three-stage serial tubular photobioreactor,The increase in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is considered to be one of the main causes of global warming. As estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) criteria| about 10-15% of the gases emitted from the combustion coal being in the form of carbon dioxide. Microalgae and cyanobacteria can contribute to the reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide by using this gas as carbon source. We cultivated the Scenedesmus obliquus and Spirulina sp. at 30 degrees C in a temperature-controlled three-stage serial tubular photobioreactor and determined the resistance of these organisms to limitation and excess of carbon dioxide and the capacity of the system to fix this greenhouse gas. After 5 days of cultivation under conditions of carbon limitation both organisms showed cell death. Spirulina sp. presenting better results for all parameters than S. obliquus. For Spirulina sp. the maximum specific growth rate and maximum productivity was 0.44 d(-1)| 0.22 g L-1 d(-1)| both with 6% (v/v) carbon dioxide and maximum cellular concentration was 3.50 g L-1 with 12% (v/v) carbon dioxide. Maximum daily carbon dioxide biofixation was 53.29% for 6% (v/v) carbon dioxide and 45.61% for 12% carbon dioxide to Spirulina sp. corresponding values for S. obliquus being 28.08% for 6% (v/v) carbon dioxide and 13.56% for 12% (v/v) carbon dioxide. The highest mean carbon dioxide fixation rates value was 37.9% to Spirulina sp. in the 6% carbon dioxide runs. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1525,2007,4,4,Biogenic secondary organic aerosol over the United States: Comparison of climatological simulations with observations,Understanding the effects of global climate change on regional air quality is central in future air quality planning. We report here on the use of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS) general circulation model ( GCM) III to drive the GEOS-CHEM global atmospheric chemical transport model to simulate climatological present-day aerosol levels over the United States. Evaluation of model predictions using surface measurements from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments ( IMPROVE) network indicates that the GISS GCM III/GEOS-CHEM model is a suitable tool for simulating aerosols over the United States in the present climate. The model reproduces fairly well the concentrations of sulfate ( mean bias of -0.36 mu g m(-3)| normalized mean bias ( NMB) of -25.9%)| black carbon ( -0.004 mu g m(-3)| -1.9%)| organic carbon that comprises primary and secondary components ( -0.56 mu g m(-3)| -34.2%)| and PM(2.5) (-0.87 mu g m(-3)| -20.4%). Nitrate concentrations are overpredicted in the western United States ( west of 95 degrees W) with a NMB of +75.6% and underestimated in the eastern United States with a NMB of -54.4%. Special attention is paid to biogenic secondary organic aerosol ( SOA). The highest predicted seasonal mean SOA concentrations of 1-2 mu g m(-3) and 0.5-1.5 mu g m(-3) are predicted over the northwestern and southeastern United States| respectively| in the months of June-July-August. Isoprene is predicted to contribute 49.5% of the biogenic SOA burden over the United States| with the rest explained by the oxidation of terpenes. Predicted biogenic SOA concentrations are in reasonable agreement with inferred SOA levels from IMPROVE measurements. On an annual basis| SOA is predicted to contribute 10-20% of PM2.5 mass in the southeastern United States| as high as 38% in the northwest and about 5-15% in other regions| indicating the important role of SOA in understanding air quality and visibility over the United States. 8076,2007,3,3,Black carbon sequestration as an alternative to bioenergy,Most policy and much research concerning the application of biomass to reduce global warming gas emissions has concentrated either on increasing the Earth's reservoir of biomass or on substituting biomass for fossil fuels| with or without CO| sequestration. Suggested approaches entail varied risks of impermanence| delay| high costs| and unknowable side-effects. An under-researched alternative approach is to extract from biomass black (elemental) carbon| which can be permanently sequestered as mineral geomass and may be relatively advantageous in terms of those risks. This paper reviews salient features of black carbon sequestration and uses a high-level quantitative model to compare the approach with the alternative use of biomass to displace fossil fuels. Black carbon has been demonstrated to produce significant benefits when sequestered in agricultural soil| apparently without bad side-effects. Black carbon sequestration appears to be more efficient in general than energy generation| in terms of atmospheric carbon saved per unit of biomass; an exception is where biomass can efficiently displace coal-fired generation. Black carbon sequestration can reasonably be expected to be relatively quick and cheap to apply due to its short value chain and known technology. However| the model is sensitive to several input variables| whose values depend heavily on local conditions. Because characteristics of black carbon sequestration are only known from limited geographical contexts| its worldwide potential will not be known without multiple streams of research| replicated in other contexts. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8376,2007,5,4,Blowing hot and cold in the Palaeozoic,This paper reviews both the changing global climates as the Palaeozoic progressed and also our progressive understanding of them over the past two hundred years of increasing geological awareness. There were two glacial intervals| a short (about half a million years) Hirnantian one at the end of the Ordovician and a very much longer one which lasted for much of the Carboniferous and the lower part of the Permian. There were also periods of global warming; for example| the late Ordovician (Middle Ashgill) Boda Event immediately preceded the Hirnantian glaciation. Much has been deduced about Palaeozoic climatic variation for about two hundred years| but it is only since the advent of the understanding of plate tectonics in the 1960 s that a coherent picture is beginning to emerge of palaeoclimates around the globe. Although the terms themselves are somewhat misleading| recognition of alternating `greenhouse' and `icehouse' states provides effective models for global climate analysis| both today and in the Palaeozoic. 8325,2007,2,4,Bottom-up control regulates fisheries production at the scale of eco-regions in European seas,We used primary productivity data derived from remote sensing images and catch data for the period 1998 to 2004 to characterize the productivity of eco-regions in the northeast Atlantic| Mediterranean| Black and Baltic Seas| and then analyzed the strength of the trophic linkage between primary productivity and marine fisheries production in European seas. Mean annual primary production (PP) derived from an ocean-color based model was highly contrasted among eco-regions| exceeding 500 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in the Marmara and North Seas but being less than 150 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in the Faroes| Adriatic-Ionian and Aegean-Levantine Seas. Fisheries production expressed in mean annual yield and primary production required to support catches (PPR) varied greatly among eco-regions| from 0.02 t km(-2) and 0.7 g C m(-2) yr(-1) for the oceanic northeast Atlantic eco-region to 6 t km(-2) and 130 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in the Marmara Sea respectively. Linear regression models showed significant positive relationships between PP and yield as well as between PP and PPR| suggesting a strong linkage between marine productivity and fisheries production in European seas. Moreover| this bottom-up control appeared consistent over time: recent mean annual yield for the period 1998 to 2004 reflected the long-term yield averaged over the last 3 decades. We argue that such large-scale coupling is due to energy transfer along the food web (from phytoplankton to predators) through predation processes| primary productivity driving the production of living marine resources and their exploitation at the scale of eco-regions. Our findings have an important bearing for ecosystem approaches to fisheries| particularly for the estimation of the capacity of eco-regions with regard to sustainable exploitation. This is further relevant in a context of climate change| because variations in PP linked to global warming could strongly modify fisheries production in the future. 8342,2007,3,4,Bottoming micro-Rankine cycles for micro-gas turbines,This paper investigates the possibility of enhancing the performances of micro-gas turbines through the addition of a bottoming organic Rankine cycle which recovers the thermal power of the exhaust gases typically available in the range of 250-300 degrees C. The ORC cycles are particularly suitable for the recovery of heat from sources at variable temperatures| and for the generation of medium to small electric power. With reference to a micro-gas turbine with a size of about 100 kWe| a combined configuration could increase the net electric power by about 1/3| yielding an increase of the electrical efficiency of up to 40%. A specific analysis of the characteristics of different classes of working fluids is carried out in order to define a procedure to select the most appropriate fluid| capable of satisfying both environmental (ozone depletion potential| global warming potential) and technical (flammability| toxicity| fluid critical temperature and molecular complexity) concerns. Afterwards| a thermodynamic analysis is performed to ascertain the most favourable cycle thermodynamic conditions| from the point of view of heat recovery. Furthermore| a preliminary design of the ORC turbine (number of stages| outer diameter and rotational speed) is carried out. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7770,2007,3,4,Breakdown characteristics of N2O gas mixtures for quasi-uniform electric field under lightning impulse voltage,From the viewpoint of mitigating global warming by SF6 gas| this paper discusses breakdown (BD) characteristics of different electronegative gas mixtures with N2O gas as SF6 gas substitutes for quasi-uniform electric field under lightning impulse voltage applications. Experimental results revealed the positive synergism in breakdown strength of binary N2O/CO2 and ternary N2O/CO2/O-2 gas mixtures| respectively. Furthermore| N-2 gas as a retardant gas was also mixed with the electronegative gas mixtures in order to reduce the electron energy into the effective levels of electron attachment ability by the electronegative gas mixtures. As the result| ternary N2O/CO2/N-2 and quaternary N2O/CO2/O-2/N-2 gas mixtures could exhibit the significant synergistic effect in breakdown strength. The optimum mixture rate of quaternary N2O/CO2/O-2/N-2 gas mixtures was consistent with that estimated by assuming the independent contribution of component gases to the improvement of impulse BD characteristics. 1519,2007,2,4,Breeding distributions of north American bird species moving north as a result of climate change,Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere| these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species| we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution| indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted| the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change. 8087,2007,2,4,Breeding performance and longevity of Tomicus destruens on Mediterranean and continental pine species,The pine shoot beetle Tomicus destruens (Wollaston) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) is one of the main pests of Mediterranean forests| where it is oligophagous on Mediterranean pines. However| possible global warming may make the insect move to higher latitudes and altitudes| allowing it to attack new pine species. In this respect| the aim of the present article was to assess both the acceptance and performance of T destruens offered host and non-host pine species. A no-choice breeding experiment was set up under laboratory conditions| using logs of three Mediterranean (Pinus pinea L.| Pinus pinaster Miller| and Pinus halepensis Aiton) and two continental (Pinus nigra Arnold and Pinus sylvcstris L.) pine species. Log debarking at the end of adult emergence assessed parent fecundity egg| and larval mortality. The quality of callow adults emerging from each tested pine was evaluated on the basis of their longevity on a semiartificial diet. Tomicus destruens colonised all tested pine species| but did not reproduce in Scots pine| taking about 79 days to complete development with no differences among pines tested. The best breeding performance| evaluated as female fecundity and adult production| was observed in R halepensis| and the lowest in P. pinaster. On average| adults emerging from P. pinea survived longer (83 days) than from other pines| and adult longevity was the lowest in males emerging from R nigra. Austrian pine| which under natural conditions is usually not a host of T. destruens| allowed insect development and adult production similar to P. pinea and P. pinaster. 7826,2007,4,4,Brief review of some CLIVAR-related studies in China,The Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program is one of the sub-programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). In this paper| CLIVAR related research in China (2003-2006) is briefly reviewed| including four major components| namely| low-frequency intraseasonal oscillations| interannual variability| decadal variations in East Asia| and global warming simulations. 8123,2007,2,4,Brominated dibenzo-p-dioxins: A new class of marine toxins?,Levels of polybrominated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PBDDs) were measured in marine fish| mussels| and shellfish. PBDDs were nondetectable in samples from freshwater environments| and their levels were successively higher in samples from the marine environments of the Bothnian Bay and Bothnian Sea| the West Coast of Sweden| and the Baltic Proper. In Baltic Proper littoral fish the levels of PBDDs generally exceeded those of their chlorinated analogues (PCDDs). This is alarming as some Baltic fish species already are contaminated by chlorinated dioxins to such an extent that they cannot be sold on the European market. By comparing spatial trends in PBDD and PCDD distributions| and PBDD patterns in fish| mussels| and algae| we show that the PBDDs are probably produced naturally| and we propose a route for their biosynthesis. We further show that the levels of PBDDs are high (ng/g wet weight) in mussels| and that the levels increase over time. Finally| we discuss the possibility that the PBDDs have adverse biological effects| and that the levels are increasing as a result of global warming and eutrophication. 7820,2007,5,4,Bryozoan paleoecology indicates mid-Phanerozoic extinctions were the product of long-term environmental stress,We compiled the global onshore-offshore distribution of marine bryozoans within 396 Permian-Early Jurassic bryozoan assemblages and show that bryozoan assemblage generic richness declined significantly in advance of the end-Permian and end-Triassic mass extinctions| starting as early as the Capitanian prior to the end-Permian and the Norian prior to the end-Triassic. We also show that offshore settings were affected first| prior to both extinctions| suggesting that environmental stress resulted from the gradual encroachment of some deepwater phenomenon onto the shelves. These patterns support long-term oceanographic| rather than extraterrestrial| extinction mechanisms| such as widespread euxinia triggered by massive volcanism and global warming. Tracking the onshore-offshore environmental distribution of these marine invertebrates provides a unique approach to assessing prolonged environmentally induced stress through this similar to 120 m.y. time interval. 8147,2007,4,4,Burning of secondary forest in Amazonia: Biomass| burning efficiency and charcoal formation during land preparation for agriculture in Apiau| Roraima| Brazil,In a burn of 5-year-old secondary forest cleared for agriculture in Roraima| Brazil| carbon partitioning was measured for above-ground portions of both secondary forest (regrowth) and the remains of original forest| felled and burned six years previously. Above-ground dry weight biomass averaged 43.0 +/- 6.5 Mg (megagrams=metric tons) per hectare (Mg ha(-1)) for secondary forest and 105.8 +/- 23.7 Mg ha(-1) for original forest remains. Pre- and post-burn above-ground biomass loadings were estimated by cutting and weighing six 60-m(2) plots and by line-intersect sampling (LIS) done along the axis of each post-burn plot (three transects)| plus two supplementary LIS transects. High variability of initial biomass made LIS more reliable for assessing change in material >10 cm in diameter; quantities for diameter classes <10 cm relied on direct weighing. Above-ground carbon pools were reduced by 67.8% in secondary forest and 32.0% in original forest remains. Burning released 28.8 Mg C ha(-1) (original forest remains plus secondary forest biomass)| or 41.6% of the pre-burn total carbon stock in biomass. The remainder of the carbon either remained as residual biomass (39.2 Mg C ha(-1) or 56.5% of pre-burn C) or as charcoal and ashes (1.4 Mg C ha(-1) or 2.0%). Carbon stock in charcoal increased from 0.50 Mg C ha(-1) to 1.07 Mg C ha(-1)| a net gain of 0.57 Mg C ha(-1)| or 0.8% of the pre-burn above-ground carbon stock. The net gain of charcoal carbon was composed of 0.21 Mg C ha(-1) from secondary forest biomass and 0.36 Mg C ha(-1) from original forest remains; 1.1% of the above-ground secondary forest carbon was converted to charcoal| while the corresponding percentage for original forest remains was 0.7%. Ashes contained an additional 0.29 Mg C ha(-1)| of which 0.11 Mg C ha(-1) can be attributed to secondary forest biomass and 0.18 Mg C ha(-1) to original forest remains. If the carbon in ashes is assumed to be finely powdered charcoal| this stock adds 0.21% to the charcoal formation percentage for secondary forest and 0.36% to that for original forest remains. The overall charcoal-formation percentage was 1.6%| or 2.0% if ashes are included. Charcoal-formation percentages in this study are lower than those sometimes assumed in global carbon models; nevertheless| charcoal can represent an important sink of atmospheric carbon over long time scales. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7841,2007,5,4,Calcareous nannofossils from the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum of the equatorial Atlantic (ODP Site 1260B): Evidence for tropical warming,Independent geological and micropaleontological lines of evidence suggest a similar to 200 kyr| period of intense warming covering the Paleocene/Eocene boundary interval (PETM). It has been suggested that this warming was initiated by a massive release of methane from the continental slopes. Among other groups of organisms| calcareous nannofossils are characterized by a remarkable increase of warm water taxa during this interval. Here we report the tropical response of calcareous nannofossils to the Paleocene/Eocene interval in ODP Site 1260B (283.15-276.35 mbsf). The PETM is about 1.38 m thick (279.88-278.5 mbsf) as defined by the onset and termination of the 6 13 C excursion and is marked by a similar to 12 cm thick laminated clay layer at the start of the excursion. A 30 cm thick interval (279.75-279.45 mbsf) directly above the clay layer| is characterized by common Discoaster spp. and Coccolithus subpertusus (syn. Ericsonia subpertusus) and the first occurrences of Discoaster araneus| Rhomboaster cuspis and Tribrachiatus bramlettei. All five taxa are interpreted as proxies for warm surface waters. The increase of Discoaster spp. during the PETM is solely caused by the onset of the new species D. araneus| which is here seen as a malformed Discoaster related to specific PETM conditions. These possibly include an acidification of the surface waters and/or higher salinity. The Rhomboaster/Tribrachiatus group| which first occurs in the PETM| is also thought to be a proxy for increased salinity. The abundance of the genus Toweius| indicative for mesotrophic conditions| declines simultaneously. Discoaster abundance decreases in the later stages of the PETM| being substituted by Chiasmolithus and Campylosphaera indicating a change to more eutrophic conditions. The genus Fasciculithus| very common in the tropical Paleocene| suffered a dramatic decline in the clay layer (basal PETM)| without recovering later in the Eocene. This decline and the subsequent extinction of Fasciculithus| a solid robust nannolith| are here thought to be related to a calcification crises| perhaps caused by a high CO(2) concentration and an acidification of the oceans. The observed changes in the composition of the calcareous nannofossils were relatively short lived| following the course of the PETM| which was characterized by warm surface waters with possibly low pH conditions. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1391,2007,3,4,Can one say ethanol is a real threat to gasoline?,Ethanol use in Brazil as a motor fuel has been largely promoted since the two oil shocks of the 1970s| either as a gasoline additive (anhydrous ethanol) or as a gasoline substitute (hydrated ethanol). As of today| the uncertainties in the international oil markets| the methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) ban in the US and the growing concerns with global climate change| all justify the quest for a new role to be played by ethanol worldwide. The current prevailing view sees ethanol as a real threat to gasoline and| eventually| to oil itself. This paper examines this issue and concludes that by replacing mainly MTBE and not allowing the use of improved Otto engines| E10 (gasohol blend) does not pose any serious treat to the oil industry| nor do flexfuel vehicles using fairly typical gasoline engines and| in the lack of ethanol supply| running on gasoline. On the other hand| if Otto engines at compression ratios found in diesel engines are promoted| then E30 could become a suitable strategy for spreading the use of ethanol fuel in large volumes and also for saving gasoline. This paper proposes coupling policies of blending ethanol with gasoline| with policies aiming at saving fuel use in light duty vehicles (LDV). (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7881,2007,3,2,Can warming particles enter global climate discussions?,'Soot' or 'black carbon'| which comes from incomplete combustion| absorbs light and warms the atmosphere. Although there have been repeated suggestions that reduction of black carbon could be a viable part of decreasing global warming| it has not yet been considered when choosing actions to reduce climatic impact. In this paper| I examine four conceptual barriers to the consideration of aerosols in global agreements. I conclude that some of the major objections to considering aerosols under hemispheric or global agreements are illusory because: (1) a few major sources will be addressed by local regulations| but the remainder may not be addressed by traditional air quality management; (2) climate forcing by carbon particles is not limited to 'hot spots'-about 90% of it occurs at relatively low concentrations; (3) while aerosol science is complex| the most salient characteristics of aerosol behavior can be condensed into tractable metrics including| but not limited to| the global warming potential; (4) despite scientific uncertainties| reducing all aerosols from major sources of black carbon will reduce direct climate warming with a very high probability. This change in climate forcing accounts for at least 25% of the accompanying CO(2) forcing with significant probability (25% for modern diesel engines| 90% for superemitting diesels| and 55% for cooking with biofuels). Thus| this fraction of radiative forcing should not be ignored. 1394,2007,3,4,Carbon and nitrogen storage and organic fractions in latosol submitted to different use and management systems,The advance of the agricultural frontier| characterized by the conversion of natural ecosystems into cultivated areas| was intensified in the last decades. Most of the practices used to manage soils cause changes in the soil quality and soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics. Studying the impact of different management systems is essential to choose the most adequate soil management practices. This study aimed to evaluate different SOM fractions and carbon and nitrogen storage of a very clayey typic dystroferric Red Latosol (Oxisol) under the following use and management systems: native forest (MTN)| eucalyptus (EUC)| pine (PIN)| pasture (PAS)| corn under minimum tillage (MCM) and corn under conventional till (MPC). The soil samples were collected in September 2004| in the 0-10| 10-20 and 20-40 cm layers to assess organic carbon (OC) and total nitrogen (TN) storage| in the 0-5 and 0-10 cm layers for the physical-densimetric SOM fractionation| and at 0-5 cm to measure the carbon content of the microbial biomass (Cmic). OC storage in the EUC soil was higher than in the MTN soil. The relative contribution of C increased in the order: C-clay > C-silt > C-sand > C-LF. The largest proportion (> 90 %) of OC was associated to the heavy fraction of SOM| with values close to 98 % in the tillage systems with corn (MPC and MCM). The Cmic and C-light fraction (C-LF) were more sensitive to evaluate changes in SOM dynamics caused by the different use and management systems of the studied Latosol. 7795,2007,4,4,Carbon cycling in a mountain ash forest: Analysis of below ground respiration,Soils are responsible for storing up to 75% of forest carbon uptake making them extremely large carbon pools. However| soil carbon is eventually released to the atmosphere by below ground respiration| consisting of soil respiration (microbial activity) and root respiration| which is influenced by environmental climate variables (soil temperature and moisture)| soil characteristics (chemical and physical properties) and stand characteristics (stand age). We investigated the impact of stand age of cool temperate mountain ash forests (E. regnans) in Wallaby Creek| Victoria on carbon cycling between the soil and atmosphere using a chronosequence of three sites of different ages (regrowth from bushfires in 1730| 1926 and 1983). Below ground respiration was measured between January (Summer) and May (Autumn) in 2005 across all three sites| with the highest rates found in the old growth forest (5.3 mu mol CO2 m(-2) s(-1)) and with lowest rates in the youngest site (2.9 mu mol CO2 m(-2) S-1). Within sites| below ground respiration rates increased with temperature| with Q 10 values ranging between 1.42 and 1.55. Rates were further influenced by soil moisture| and soil physical and chemical properties| including root biomass and levels of soil carbon. Litterfall was also measured and was highest at the youngest site (140 g biomass m(-2) month(-1)) and lowest (92 g biomass m(-2) month(-1)) at the old growth site. Greater understanding of forest carbon cycling will result in an improved understanding of forests and their influence on global warming. Crown Copyright (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8339,2007,3,3,Carbon dioxide disposal via carbonation,Carbonation is a solidification/stabilization process. The availability of a carbon dioxide (CO2) fixation technology would serve as insurance in case global warming causes severe restrictions on CO2 emissions. In order to prevent rapid climate change| it will be necessary to stabilize CO2 as carbonate by the carbonation process. Carbonation of the widely occurring mineral olivine (Mg2SiO4) converts CO2 into an environmentally benign mineral magnesite (MgCO3). 1578,2007,3,3,Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model,China's carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion had increased with an annual growth rate of 4.36% since 1980| hitting 1 GtC in 2003. The global climate change issue is becoming more and more important and hence to be the fourth challenge for China's future energy development| following energy supply shortages| energy security| and local environmental protection. This paper used three MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) family models| that is| MARKAL| MARKAL-ED (MARKAL with elastic demand)| and MARKAL-MACRO| to study China energy system's carbon mitigation strategies and corresponding impacts on the economy. The models' structures and the economic feedback formulations used in MARKAL-MACRO and MARKAL-ED are briefly described. The endogenous demands in MARKAL-MACRO and MARKAL-ED enable them to partly satisfy carbon abatement constraints via energy service demand reductions| and the reduction levels for the 30 demand sectors from these two kinds of models for given carbon emission constraints are presented and compared. The impact of carbon mitigation on social welfare from MARKAL and MARKAL-ED| and on GDP| investment and consumption from MARKAL-MACRO are evaluated. The changes in both final and primary energy mix| changes in technology development| as well as marginal abatement costs for given carbon constraints from the three models| are analyzed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7864,2007,2,4,Carbon in tundra soils in the Lake Labaz region of arctic Siberia,Large amounts of carbon are stored in permafrost-affected soils of the Arctic tundra. The quantity| distribution and composition of this carbon are important| because much of the carbon is likely to be released as a result of global warming. We have studied soils of the central Siberian Arctic to determine the carbon content and the nature of the organic matter by density fractionation| and (13)C-NMR- and (13)C-stable-isotope analyses. There are pronounced differences in the profile and variations from place to place in the quantity and nature of soil organic matter. We estimated that the mean stock of carbon was 14.5 kg m(-2) within the active layer. We found a total of about 30.7 kg C m(-3) in the entire upper metre of the soils. Carbon of the tussock tundra showed strong vertical differentiation| with a large proportion comprising decomposed| recalcitrant compounds. We identified within the soil several zones of aerobe and anaerobe decomposition. Mobile carbon fractions have precipitated under the influence of low temperatures. 7988,2007,4,4,Carbon sequestration determined using farm scale carbon balance and eddy covariance,Studies using eddy covariance have shown grasslands to be both sinks and sources of carbon dioxide (CO(2)). However| such studies do not take into account the exports of carbon (C)| such as in meat and milk and imports of C| such as off-farm derived C in cattle feed supplement. By coupling eddy covariance results with farm management data we quantified the farm scale C balance during 2004 for two dairy farms in South West Ireland. The system boundary for inputs and outputs of C is the farm perimeter. Carbon sequestration is determined as the difference between all C inputs and C outputs. Carbon inputs are similar in both farms with net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (2.9 +/- 0.5 t C ha(-1) year(-1)) accounting for 88 and 81% of C inputs in Farms A and B| respectively. Carbon in concentrate feed accounts for 12 and 19% of C inputs in Farms A and B| respectively. Respiration by cattle during the winter housing period| and respiration by cows during milking throughout the grazing season| are the largest C outputs and account for approximately half of C outputs on both farms. The other major sources of C output are milk| CH(4) produced by enteric fermentation and emitted during slurry spreading and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in streamflow. Carbon in meat and CH(4) emissions from dung (both in the farmyard and fields) and animal slurry in farmyard storage are minor sources of C output. The annual total C inputs are 3.30 and 3.58 t C ha(-1) and the total C outputs are 1.25 and 1.43 t C ha(-1) in Farms A and B| respectively. The net difference is 2.05 and 2.15 t C ha(-1) in Farms A and B| respectively. This suggests that both farms were net C sinks for 2004. Further work on below ground process and soil C turnover is required to determine if this C sink estimate is reflected in changes in soil C stocks. Furthermore| we estimate the global warming potential (GWP) of this grassland to be a sink for similar to 1 t CO(2) equiv. ha(-1) year(-1). (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1553,2007,3,4,Carbon sources and sinks in high-elevation spruce-fir forests of the Southeastern US,This paper examines carbon (C) pools| fluxes| and net ecosystem balance for a high-elevation red spruce-Fraser fir forest [Picea rubens Sarg./ Abies fraseri (Pursh.) Poir] in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP)| based on measurements in fifty-four 20 m x 20 m permanent plots located between 1525 and 1970 m elevation. Forest floor and mineral soil C was determined from destructive sampling of the 0 horizon and incremental soil cores (to a depth of 50 cm) in each plot. Overstory C pools and net C sequestration in live trees was estimated from periodic inventories between 1993 and 2003. The CO2 release from standing and downed wood was based on biomass and C concentration estimates and published decomposition constants by decay class and species. Soil respiration was measured in situ between 2002 and 2004 in a subset of eight plots along an elevation gradient. Litterfall was collected from a total of 16 plots over a 2-5-year period. The forest contained on average 403 Mg C ha(-1) almost half of which stored belowground. Live trees| predominantly spruce| represented a large but highly variable C pool (mean: 126 Mg C ha(-1)| CV = 39%); while dead wood (61 Mg C ha(-1))| mostly fir| accounted for as much as 15% of total ecosystem C. The 10-year mean C sequestration in living trees was 2700 kg C ha(-1) year(-1)| but increased from 2180 kg C ha(-1) year(-1) in 1993-1998 to 3110 kg C ha(-1) year(-1) in 1998-2003| especially at higher elevations. Dead wood also increased during that period| releasing on average 1600 kg C ha(-1) year(-1). Estimated net soil C efflux ranged between 1000 and 1450 kg C ha(-1) year(-1)| depending on the calculation of total belowground C allocation. Based on current flux estimates| this old-growth system was close to C neutral. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8167,2007,5,4,Carbonate dissolution revealed by silt grain-size distribution: comparison of Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum sediments from the pelagic South Atlantic,The current issue of global warming and the role of the ocean in global exchange of CO(2) increases the interest in solid budgets of marine carbonate production and dissolution. The present study utilizes grain-size composition of pelagic sediments in order to trace spatial and temporal variability of carbonate sedimentation in the South Atlantic for the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM| 19-23 cal kyr BP). A decrease in grain size (e.g. sand content| mean grain size of coarse carbonate silt) indicates increased carbonate dissolution as a result of increased fragmentation of calcareous microfossils. The spatial grain-size pattern suggests a threshold water depth below which a gradual grain-size decrease becomes increasingly rapid. This water depth is considered as the sedimentary lysocline. For the Holocene time slice| a constant| gradual decrease of foraminifer carbonate of about 5-10% per 1000 m water depth above the lysocline gives evidence for supra-lysoclinal dissolution. The water depth of the lysocline for the Holocene is tied to the interface of North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) (ca 4100 m). Submarine ridges which restrict intrusion of AABW into the Angola Basin cause an asymmetry in carbonate preservation across the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The lysocline was reconstructed at ca 3100 m for the LGM. These data suggest that the ca 1000 m rise of the lysocline eradicated the Holocene east-west asymmetry. 1510,2007,5,4,Causes of lineage decline in the Aplodontidae: Testing for the influence of physical and biological change,This study documents diversity decline in a once-speciose rodent clade| the family Aplodontidae| and evaluates the potential influence of three commonly suggested controls on diversity: climate change| floral change| and competitive interactions. Aplodontids first appeared in the late Eocene| diversified during the early Oligocene| declined precipitously at the end of the Oligocene such that standing diversity was only about 5 species during the early Miocene| peaked again in the early middle Miocene| then declined through the late Miocene| and are entirely absent from the Pliocene and early Pleistocene fossil record. This long term pattern culminated in the survival of a single extant species| Aplodontia rufa| the mountain beaver. The species' richness and body size distribution through time were compared with the timing of climatic changes as inferred from global oxygen isotope curves| with the rise of grasslands as inferred from phytolith and other stable isotope studies| and with fluctuating diversity of potential competitors as inferred from published stratigraphic and geographic distributions. The timing of global climate change is decoupled from the diversity fluctuations and seems not to have been a proximate cause. Rise of grasslands and the increasing dominance Of C-4 vegetation correlates with diversity decline in the late Oligocene and late Miocene| but data are sparse| and more work will be required to determine the mechanism driving this relationship. Examination of potential mammalian competitors (sciurids and castorids) finds no evidence for competitive replacement of aplodontids. It is difficult to ascribe the fluctuations in aplodontid diversity to a single cause. The explanation likely involves vegetation changes associated with the spread of grasslands| but there is some variation in diversity that cannot be explained by the vegetation| at least using the proxies employed here. Climate and competition are less consistent with the available data. The reasons for the decline of aplodontids in the late Oligocene and the late Miocene apparently involved the interaction of multiple physical and biological causes| coupled with the chance events that underlie any evolutionary process. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1415,2007,3,4,Challenge of biofuel: filling the tank without emptying the stomach?,Biofuels have become a leading alternative to fossil fuel because they can be produced domestically by many countries| require only minimal changes to retail distribution and end-use technologies| are a partial response to global climate change| and because they have the potential to spur rural development. Production of biofuel has increased most rapidly for corn ethanol| in part because of government subsidies; yet| corn ethanol offers at most a modest contribution to society's climate change goals and only a marginally positive net energy balance. Current biofuels pose long-run consequences for the provision of food and environmental amenities. In the short run| however| when gasoline supply and demand are inelastic| they serve as a buffer supply of energy| helping to reduce prices. Employing a conceptual model and with back-of-the-envelope estimates of wealth transfers resulting from biofuel production| we find that ethanol subsidies pay for themselves. Adoption of second-generation technologies may make biofuels more beneficial to society. The large-scale production of new types of crops dedicated to energy is likely to induce structural change in agriculture and change the sources| levels| and variability of farm incomes. The socio-economic impact of biofuel production will largely depend on how well the process of technology adoption by farmers and processors is understood and managed. The confluence of agricultural policy with environmental and energy policies is expected. 7757,2007,2,4,Change in the distribution of a member of the strand line community: the seaweed fly (Diptera : Coelopidae),1. Coastal organisms are predicted to be particularly susceptible to the impact of global warming. In this study the distribution and relative abundance of two coastal invertebrates| Coelopa frigida (Fabricius) and C. pilipes are investigated. 2. Coelopa pilipes has a more southerly distribution than C. frigida| and prefers a warmer climate. Coelopa pilipes is less resistant to sub-zero temperatures than C. frigida and its northerly distribution is probably limited by cold winter days. 3. The most recent distribution map of C. frigida and C. pilipes in northern Europe was published a decade ago and showed the northerly extent of the distribution of C. pilipes reaching the north coast of mainland Scotland but its complete absence from the Western and Northern Isles. 4. C. pilipes has now spread throughout the Western Isles and the Orkney Islands but is still absent from Shetland. There has also been an increase in the relative frequency of C. pilipes at sites harbouring coelopids on the British mainland. A similar pattern of distribution change along the west coast of Sweden is reported. 5. It is proposed that these changes have occurred primarily as a result of global warming and in particular due to the recent increase in winter temperatures. A number of other indirect effects may have also contributed to these changes| including a probable change in macroalgae distribution. The implications of these changes for the wrack bed ecosystem and at higher trophic levels are considered. 1540,2007,2,4,Changes in biotic interactions and climate determine recruitment of Jeffrey pine along an elevation gradient,The mechanisms by which climate affects recruitment and loss of plants and the interactions between those plants and other organisms (e.g.| pathogens| granivores| seed dispersers) have seldom been studied in the context of plant response to climate change. We examined how climate influences Jeffrey pine (Pines jeffreyi) recruitment| mortality| and species interactions at three elevation zones (low| mid| high) across its elevation range (1550-2470 m) in the semi-arid Carson Range of western Nevada. Local climate was correlated with several aspects of stand structure| including smaller trees| slower growth rates| greater predation by seed insects| and higher tree mortality at low elevation. Cone crop was not affected by elevation| but there were more mature trees and more filled seeds per cone at mid- and high elevations. Populations of seed-caching rodents were largest at mid-elevation| but sufficient rodents were present at all elevations to cause rapid removal and dispersal of pine seeds. Seedling emergence from rodent caches was greatest at low and middle elevation| but seedling survival was best at middle and high elevations. The number of saplings was greatest at mid-elevation sites. These results suggest a retracting population at low elevation (high adult tree mortality and low recruitment)| a rapidly expanding population at mid-elevation (low adult tree mortality and high recruitment)| and a slowly expanding population at high elevation (low adult tree mortality and low recruitment). These demographic patterns foreshadow a shift in distribution upslope over future decades| driven by changes in climate and facilitated by biotic interactions. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1434,2007,2,3,Changes in diurnal temperature range and national cereal yields,Models of yield responses to temperature change have often considered only changes in average temperature (T-avg) with the implicit assumption that changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR; the difference between daily maximum and minimum temperature) can safely be ignored. The goal of this study was to evaluate this assumption using a combination of historical datasets and climate model projections. Data on national crop yields for 1961-2002 in the ten leading producers of wheat (Triticum spp.)| rice (Oryza spp.) and maize (Zea mays) were combined with datasets on climate and crop locations to evaluate the empirical relationships between DTR and crop yields. In several rice and maize growing regions| including the two major nations for each crop| there was a clear negative response of yields to increased DTR. This finding reflects a nonlinear response of yields to temperature| which likely results from greater water and heat stress during hot days. In many other cases| the effects of DTR were not statistically significant| in part because correlations of DTR with other climate variables| and the relatively short length of the time series resulted in wide confidence intervals for the estimates. To evaluate whether future changes in DTR are relevant to crop impact assessments| yield responses to projected changes in T-avg and DTR by 2046-2065 from I I climate models were estimated. The mean of climate model projections indicated an increase in DTR in most seasons and locations where wheat is grown| mixed projections for maize| and a general decrease in DTR for rice. These mean projections were associated with wide ranges that included zero in nearly all cases. The estimated impacts of DTR changes on yields were generally small (<5% change in yields) relative to the consistently negative impact of projected warming of T-avg. However| DTR changes did significantly affect yield responses in several cases| such as in reducing US maize yields and increasing India rice yields. Because DTR projections tend to be positively correlated with estimates of yield changes for extreme warming were particularly affected by including DTR (up to 10%). Finally| based on the relatively poor performance of climate models in reproducing the magnitude of past DTR trends| it is possible that future DTR changes and associated yield responses will exceed the ranges considered here. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1413,2007,2,3,Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models,One of the key features of global climate change will be perturbations to the hydrological regime across Europe. To date| assessments of the impacts of future change have generally used results from only one climate model| thus underestimating the range of possible change projected by different climate models. Here| the skill of six regional climate models (RCMs) in reproducing the mean precipitation for the 1961 - 1990 period for six catchments across Europe is compared and their projections of changes in future precipitation are assessed. A simple drought index based on monthly precipitation anomalies is also described and used to assess the models. Considerable variation in model skill in reproducing monthly mean precipitation and drought statistics is observed| with model errors in the reproduction of drought events independent of those for the mean| suggesting that the models have difficulties in reproducing the observed persistence of low monthly rainfall totals. In broad terms| the models indicate decreases in summer and increases in winter precipitation across Europe. On the regional scales required for impacts analysis| considerable model uncertainty is demonstrated for future projections| particularly for drought frequency. Although increases in the frequency of long-duration droughts are identified for catchments in southern Europe| the magnitude of this change is not certain. In contrast| for a catchment in northern England| such events are likely to become less frequent. For shorter-duration droughts| future changes encompass the direction of change. For stakeholders in each of the regions| these changes and uncertainties pose different challenges for the management of water resources. For the scientific community| the challenge raised is how to incorporate this uncertainty in climate change projections in a way that allows those groups to make informed decisions based on model projections. It is suggested that probabilistic scenarios for specific hydrological impacts offer considerable potential to achieve this. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society 1440,2007,3,3,Changes in microbial community structure and function within particle size fractions of a paddy soil under different long-term fertilization treatments from the Tai Lake region| China,Greenhouse gas (GHG) production and emission from paddy soils impacts global climate change. Soil particle size fractions (PSFs) of different sizes act as soil microhabitats for different kinds of microbial biota with varying conditions of redox reactions and soil organic matter (SOC) substrates. It is crucial to understand the distribution of soil microbial community structure within PSFs and linkage to the GHG production from paddy soils of China. The change of bacterial and methangenic archaeal community and activity relating to CH4 and CO2 production with PSFs under different fertilizer applications was studied in this paper. The fertilization trial was initiated in a paddy soil from the Tai Lake region| Jiangsu| China with four treatments of non-fertilized (NF)| fertilized with inorganic fertilizers Only (CF)| inorganic with pig manure (CFM) and inorganic with straw return (CFS)| respectively since 1987| and the PSFs (< 2 mu m| 2-20 mu m| 20-200 mu m| and 200-2000 mu m) were separated by a low energy sonication dispersion procedure from undisturbed samples. Analysis of bacterial community within different size particles was conducted by PCR-DGGE. The results indicated significant variation of bacterial community structure within different PSFs. The methane was predominantly produced in the coarser fractions| while more species and higher diversity of bacteria survived in the size of < 2 mu m fractions| in which the bacterial community structure was more significantly affected by fertilizer application practices than in the other coarser fractions. Higher bacterial species richness and more diversities in the smallest size fractions was due to the vicinity between microbes| access to carbon resource outside the microaggregates| and smaller pore size as protective agent suitable habitats for microbes rather than high SOC. Whereas| higher CO2| CH4 production and methanogenic archaeal community in coarser fractions may be contributed to storage of labile organic carbon in these fractions. It indicated that availability of SOC in PSFs is mainly factor affected survival of methanogenic archaeal community structure| whereas| bacterium community habitation more affected by physical protection of their location in PSFs. Their activity greatly depended on liability of SOC access to PSFs. Fertilizer application caused more change of bacteria community in clay fraction and greatly increased bacterium and methanogen activity in coarser fractions but only a slight effect on methanogenic archaeal community in the particle size fractions. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved. 8029,2007,3,4,Changes in organic carbon and physical properties of soil aggregates under fiber farming,Interest in intensive forestry systems to produce woody fiber or "fiber farming" (FF) is increasing because of high energy costs and the risks of global warming. The FF-induced changes in soil structural properties at the microscale or aggregate level important to soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and soil-water dynamics are| however| not well understood. Thus| we compared differences in soil physical properties and SOC concentrations in aggregates among tree species after 7 years of plantation establishment on an Onaway fine sandy loam (fine loamy| mixed| active| frigid Inceptic Hapludalfs) at the Upper Peninsula Tree Improvement Center near Escanaba| Mich. Soil samples from 16.8 x 16.8-m plots under six tree taxa and three rates of wood ash application (0| 9| and 18 Mg ha(-1)) were collected in May| 2005. The six tree taxa were European larch (Larix deciduas Mill.)| hybrid aspen (Populus tremula x Populus tremuloides)| and four poplar taxa: NE-222 (Populus deltoids x Populus nigra var. caudina)| DN-5 (Populus euramericana| cv. "Gelrica")| DN-34 (P. euramericana| cv. "Eugenei")| and NM-6 (P. nigra x Populus maximowiczii). Tree species induced measurable changes in most soil aggregate properties. Larch and DN-34 increased aggregate mean weight diameter more than N-222 and NM-6. Macroaggregates contained 20% more SOC concentration than microaggregates. Ash application increased tensile: strength| soil water retention| and SOC concentration| indicating the benefits of applying ash in FF systems. Within both macroaggregates and microaggregates| NM-6 had the highest SOC concentration| whereas aspen had the lowest of all tree species. The SOC concentration increased with increase in biomass input. Results show that differences in aggregate physical properties and aggregate-associated SOC concentration among tree species were relatively small and depended on the soil property. 1356,2007,2,4,Changes in rainfall pattern affect crab herbivory rates in a SW Atlantic salt marsh,Climatic fluctuations usually change the intensity of existing interactions. Thus| in the context of the global climate change| it is important to consider new potential interactions or changes that may appear. Heavy rainy periods (one of the consequences of global climate change in eastern-central Argentina) can promote flooding in some estuaries (mainly on coastal lagoons)| and thus| affect interactions between species. In this work we investigate if climatic fluctuations can affect Spartina densiflora Brong. (dominant marsh plant) survival through a chain of biotic and abiotic interactions in a SW Atlantic costal lagoon (37 degrees 40 degrees S| 57 degrees 23 degrees W; Mar Chiquita| Argentina). To achieve this| the long-term rainfall behavior of this region| and the effect of rainy periods on submergence of estuarine marsh areas (using satellite images) were analyzed. Then| the effect of flooding on the activity of the dominant herbivore of this system| the burrowing crab Neohelice granulata (= Chasmagnathus granulatus)| was studied using pitfall traps. Finally| the effect of flooding on crab herbivory rates and plant survival were analyzed using transplants| stem-marking and flooding experiments. Long-term rainfall behavior showed that mean annual rainfall has increased during the last century| with the occurrence of more rainy years| and increases in cumulative monthly rainfall increased the submerged area of the S. densiflora marsh. Also| crab activity in the marsh largely increased during periods of flooding| associated with more than 100% increments in herbivory rates and stem mortality. These results reveal that increments in rainfall regime can trigger a cascade of abiotic and biotic interactions leading to increased marsh mortality| and stresses the importance of considering both| biotic and abiotic factors| together to predict changes in community organization. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8155,2007,2,3,Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations,Temperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of global coupled climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) diagnostic exercise for the Fourth Assessment Report ( AR4). Climate extremes are expressed in terms of 20- yr return values of annual extremes of near- surface temperature and 24-h precipitation amounts. The simulated changes in extremes are documented for years 2046 - 65 and 2081 - 2100 relative to 1981 - 2000 in experiments with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios ( SRES) B1| A1B| and A2 emission scenarios. Overall| the climate models simulate present- day warm extremes reasonably well on the global scale| as compared to estimates from reanalyses. The model discrepancies in simulating cold extremes are generally larger than those for warm extremes| especially in sea ice - covered areas. Simulated present- day precipitation extremes are plausible in the extratropics| but uncertainties in extreme precipitation in the Tropics are very large| both in the models and the available observationally based datasets. Changes in warm extremes generally follow changes in the mean summertime temperature. Cold extremes warm faster than warm extremes by about 30% - 40%| globally averaged. The excessive warming of cold extremes is generally confined to regions where snow and sea ice retreat with global warming. With the exception of northern polar latitudes| relative changes in the intensity of precipitation extremes generally exceed relative changes in annual mean precipitation| particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Consistent with the increased intensity of precipitation extremes| waiting times for late- twentieth- century extreme precipitation events are reduced almost everywhere| with the exception of a few subtropical regions. The multimodel multiscenario consensus on the projected change in the globally averaged 20- yr return values of annual extremes of 24- h precipitation amounts is that there will be an increase of about 6% with each kelvin of global warming| with the bulk of models simulating values in the range of 4% - 10% K-1. The very large intermodel disagreements in the Tropics suggest that some physical processes associated with extreme precipitation are not well represented in models. This reduces confidence in the projected changes in extreme precipitation. 8261,2007,2,4,Changes in the lower limit of mountain permafrost between 1973 and 2004 in the Khumbu Himal| the Nepal Himalayas,Because the Khumbu Himal of the Nepal Himalayas lacks long-term climate records from weather stations| mountain permafrost degradation serves as an important indicator of climate warming. In 1973| the permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5200-5300 m above sea level (ASL) on southern-aspect slopes in this region. Using ground-temperature measurements| we examined the mountain permafrost lower limit on slopes with the same aspect in 2004. The results indicate that the permafrost lower limit was 5400-5500 in ASL in 2004. The permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5400 to 5500 to on slopes with a southern aspect in the Khumbu Himal in 1991 using seismic reflection soundings. Thus| it is possible that the permafrost lower limit has risen 100-300 m between 1973 and 1991| followed by a stable limit of 5400 to 5500 m over the last decade. All increase in mean annual air temperature of approximately 0.2 to 0.4 degrees C from the 1970s to the 1990s has indicated a rise in the permafrost lower limit of 40 to 80 in at the Tibetan Plateau. The rise in the mountain permafrost lower limit in the Khumbu Himal exceeds that of the Tibetan Plateau| suggesting the possibility of greater climate warming in the Khumbu Himal. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1570,2007,2,4,Changes in water discharges of the Baltic states rivers in the 20th century and its relation to climate change,The river discharge changes in three Baltic States and its relation to changes in the main climatic variables such as precipitation and air temperature were analyzed using observed data and methods of empirical statistical analysis. The study is important for the development of efficient water resource management systems and validation of climate change impact models. The application of the Mann-Kendall test reveals that a significant increasing trend in winter air temperature and precipitation was determined for all 3 investigated periods (1923-2003| 1941-2003 and 1961-2003). The same trend was found for the winter and annual discharge time series. No trend was observed for the spring| summer and autumn seasonal streamflow and summer low flow series for most of the Baltic region. In general the relation between the main meteorological and hydrological parameters and the tendency in river discharge trends is common for all of the Baltic States| and might be associated with the regional impacts of global climate change. 8301,2007,2,4,Changes of flowering phenology of six herbal species in a beech forest (Central Slovakia): A decade analysis,The variability in flowering phenology of six forest herbaceous species: Pulmonaria officinalis L. (early spring species)| Dentaria bulbifera L. (mid spring)| Galium odoratum Scop. (late spring)| Veronica officinalis L. (early summer)| Mycelis muralis (L.) Dumort. (mid summer) and Campanula trachelium L. (mid/late summer) was analysed over the period of the past ten years (1995-2004). Observations were done in a beech forest at the Ecological Experimental Stationary in Kremnicke vrchy Mts (Central Slovakia| 48 degrees 38'N| 19 degrees 04'E| 450-520 in a.s.l.). Two phenological events - the first flowering and full flowering as well as the duration of interphase interval were analysed. The timing of observed phenological events was related to selected climatic factors (temperature and precipitation). The highest variation in the first flowering date was observed in early spring species-standard deviation (SD) was equal to 7.2 days. As for full flowering date| the highest value of standard deviation was detected in late summer species (SD = 8.5 days). In respect to the duration of interphase interval (in days)| the highest relative variability (c(v) > 53%) was ascertained in early spring species. The significant correlations (P < 0.001) were detected between dating of full flowering and cumulative temperatures in all phenological types (excepting early spring); the coefficients of correlation (r) moved from -0.85 (early summer and mid summer species) to -0.91 (mid spring species). Significant correlations were revealed between precipitation and timing of flowering only for mid summer (r = +0.70) and late summer species (r = +0.75)| respectively. Despite of the fact| that no significant trends were detected in timing of flowering in the species| the effect of the global warming is evident. The values of the possitive deviations of the mean air temperatures averaged for the period of the last decade were increased in comparison to the long-term mean. Onset of flowering has been shifted earlier a few days in majority of the species during the past decade. Decade tendency showed a slight increasing of values of cumulative temperatures during the periods crucial for the development of the phenophases. 8348,2007,2,4,Characteristics and numerical simulation of the tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations under global warming,Using the ECMWF reanalysis daily 200-hPa wind data during the two 20-yr periods from 1958 to 1977 and from 1980 to 1999| the characteristics and changes of Intraseasonal Oscillations (ISO) in the two periods associated with global warming are analyzed and compared in this study. It is found that during the last 20 years| the ISO has weakened in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean| but becomes more active in the central Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal; under the background of the global warming| increase in the amplitude of ISO intensity suggests that the ISO has become more active than before| with an obvious seasonal cycle| i.e.| strong during winter and spring| but weak during summer and autumn; the energy of the upper tropospheric zonal winds has more concentrated in wave numbers 1-3| and the frequency of ISO tended to increase. Comparison between the results of control experiment and CO(2) increase (1% per year) experiment of FGOALS-1.0g (developed at LASG) with the first and second 20-yr observations| is also performed| respectively. The comparative results show that the spatial structure of the ISO was well reproduced| but the strength of ISO was underestimated. On the basis of space-time spectral analysis| it is found that the simulated ISO contains too much high frequency waves| leading to the underestimation of ISO intensity due to the dispersion of ISO energy. However| FGOALS-1.0g captured the salient features of ISO under the global warming background by two contrast experiments| such as the vitality and frequency-increasing of ISO in the central Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. 8312,2007,4,2,Characteristics influencing the variability of urban CO2 fluxes in Melbourne| Australia,Urban areas are significant contributors to global carbon dioxide emissions. Vehicle emissions and other anthropogenic related activities are a frequent source Of CO2 to the atmosphere| contributing to global warming. Micrometeorological techniques used for observations in Northern Hemisphere cities have found that urban CO2 fluxes are consistently a source. This study investigates CO2 fluxes in an Australian city| adding to the global database of CO2 fluxes in a bid to aid in future development of planning policies concerning reductions in CO2 emissions. Using the eddy covariance approach| fluxes Of CO2 were measured at a suburban site (Preston) in Melbourne| Australia from February 2004 to June 2005 to investigate temporal variability. A second site (Surrey Hills) with differing surface characteristics (in particular| greater vegetation cover) was also established in Melbourne and ran simultaneously for 6 months (February 2004-July 2004). Results showed that both sites were a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Diurnal patterns of fluxes were largely influenced by traffic volumes| with two distinct peaks occurring at the morning and evening traffic peak hours| with the winter morning peak averaging 10.9 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) at Preston. Summer time fluxes were lower than during winter due to greater vegetative influence and reduced natural gas combustion. Vegetation limited the source of CO2 in the afternoon| yet was not enough to combat the strong local anthropogenic emissions. Surrey Hills showed higher fluxes Of CO2 despite greater vegetation cover because of higher local traffic volumes. Annual emissions from Preston were estimated at 84.9 t CO2 ha(-1) yr(-1). Magnitudes and patterns of suburban CO2 fluxes in Melbourne were similar to those observed in Northern Hemisphere suburban areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8305,2007,2,4,Characterizing the dynamics of soil organic carbon in grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,Carbon dynamics of grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau may play an important role in regional and global carbon cycles. The CENTURY model (Version 4.5) is used to examine temporal and spatial variations of soil organic carbon (SOC) in grasslands on the Plateau for the period from 1960 to 2002. The model successfully simulates the dynamics of aboveground carbon and soil surface SOC at the soil depth of 0-20 cm and the simulated results agree well to the measurements. Examination of SOC for eight typical grasslands shows different patterns of temporal variation in different ecosystems in 1960-2002. The extent of temporal variation increases with the increase of SOC of ecosystem. SOC increases first and decreases quickly then during the period from 1990 to 2000. Spatially| SOC density obtained for the equilibrium condition declines gradually from the southeast to the northwest on the plateau and showed a high heterogeneity in the eastern plateau. The results suggest that (i) SOC density in the alpine grasslands shows remarkable response to climate change during the 42 years| and (ii) the net carbon exchange rate between the alpine grassland ecosystems and the atmosphere increases from 1990 to 2000 as compared with that before 1990. 8383,2007,2,4,Chemical characteristics of pond waters within the debris area of Lirung Glacier in Nepal Himalaya,Water samples were analyzed from ponds developed within the debris-covered area of Lirung Glacier (28 degrees 12.9 degrees N| 86 degrees 39.9 degrees E; 4000 m a.s.l.) in the Himalayas of Nepal during the pre-monsoon to post-monsoon period of 1996. Major chemical species were classified into three groups based on their relationships relative to the sum of cations: conservative (SiO2| Ca2+| K| and Alkalinity)| semiconservative (Na+| Mg2+| and SO42-) and non-conservative (NH4+| NP3- and Cl-). The dominant processes determining the chemical composition of glacier pond water were sulfide oxidation coupled with carbonate dissolution and chemical weathering of aluminosilicate as indicated by the conservative and semi-conservative species. Calcium and alkalinity appeared as the dominant cation and anion| respectively| among all samples within the basin. Compared to the discharge waters at the outlet of the glacier| most of these pond waters have lower major solutes as well as alkalinity. The availability of fresh reactive minerals at the base of the glacier| coupled with higher temperature in discharge waters than in the ponds| may be the prime factors resulting in higher concentrations of most solutes in the discharge waters than in the ponds. In the ponds| higher concentrations of major solutes as well as alkalinity were observed in the monsoon than the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons| suggesting the role of hydrolysis condition in chemical weathering rates. Ponds within the debris area of Lirung glacier in central Nepal Himalaya are likely to increase in importance if global warming accelerates the rate of glacial melting. 1402,2007,3,3,China| the United States and technology cooperation on climate control,The U.S. and China are the world's largest and second largest CO2 emitters| respectively| and to what extent the U.S. and China get involved in combating global climate change is extremely important both for lowering compliance costs of climate mitigation and adaptation and for moving international climate negotiations forward. While it is unavoidable that China will take on commitments at some specific point of time in the future| this paper has argued that the proposal for joint accession by the U.S. and China is not a way forward. For various reasons| such a proposal is in the U.S. interest| but is not in the interest of China. Given the U.S. political reality and institutional settings on the one hand and China's over-riding concern about economic growth and poverty reduction on the other| the two countries are unlikely to take on emissions caps under an international regime| at least for the time being. Therefore| we need to explore the area where cooperation between the two countries to address climate change seemsbest. The research| development and deployment of clean technology is the area that is in the best interests of the two countries. The U.S. has adopted a technology-oriented approach to climate issues| and has launched the four multilateral initiatives on technology cooperation and the Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (APP). China has participated in all these U.S.-led initiatives| and is a partner to the APP. Strengthened technology cooperation between the two countries through these initiatives and the APP has led some tangible benefits. However| it should be pointed out that while technology is a critical ingredient in a climate policy package| efforts such as the APP can only be part of the solution. They alone cannot ensure that best available technologies are always deployed in the marketplace| and that new technologies will roll out at the pace and on the scale that we need. in order to have such technology-oriented approach to play a full role| we do need a coordinated policy framework agreed via the Kyoto Protocol or a follow-up regime or the parent United Nations Framework Convention. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1370,2007,5,4,Chronology and tectonic controls of Late Tertiary deposition in the southwestern Tian Shan foreland| NW china,Magnetostratigraphy from the Kashi foreland basin along the southern margin of the Tian Shan in Western China defines the chronology of both sedimentation and the structural evolution of this collisional mountain belt. Eleven magnetostratigraphic sections representing similar to 13 km of basin strata provide a two- and three-dimensional record of continuous deposition since similar to 18 Ma. The distinctive Xiyu conglomerate makes up the uppermost strata in eight of 11 magnetostratigraphic sections within the foreland and forms a wedge that thins southward. The basal age of the conglomerate varies from 15.5 +/- 0.5 Ma at the northernmost part of the foreland| to 8.6 +/- 0.1 Ma in the central (medial) part of the foreland and to 1.9 +/- 0.2| similar to 1.04 and 0.7 +/- 0.1 Ma along the southern deformation front of the foreland basin. These data indicate the Xiyu conglomerate is highly time-transgressive and has prograded south since just after the initial uplift of the Kashi Basin Thrust (KBT) at 18.9 +/- 3.3 Ma. Southward progradation occurred at an average rate of similar to 3 mm year(-1) between 15.5 and 2 Ma| before accelerating to similar to 10 mm year(-1). Abrupt changes in sediment-accumulation rates are observed at 16.3 and 13.5 Ma in the northern part of the foreland and are interpreted to correspond to southward stepping deformation. A subtle decrease in the sedimentation rate above the Keketamu anticline is determined at similar to 4.0 Ma and was synchronous with an increase in sedimentation rate further south above the Atushi Anticline. Magnetostratigraphy also dates growth strata at < 4.0| 1.4 +/- 0.1 and 1.4 +/- 0.2 Ma on the southern flanks the Keketamu| Atushi and Kashi anticlines| respectively. Together| sedimentation rate changes and growth strata indicate stepped migration of deformation into the Kashi foreland at least at 16.3| 13.5| 4.0 and 1.4 Ma. Progressive reconstruction of a seismically controlled cross-section through the foreland produces total shortening of 13-21 km and migration of the deformation front at 2.1-3.4 mm year(-1) between 19 and 13.5 Ma| 1.4-1.6 mm year(-1) between 13.5 and 4.0 Ma and 10 mm year(-1) since 4.0 Ma. Migration of deformation into the foreland generally causes (1) uplift and reworking of basin-capping conglomerate| (2) a local decrease of accommodation space above any active structure where uplift occurs| and hence a decrease in sedimentation rate and (3) an increase in accumulation on the margins of the structure due to increased subsidence and/or ponding of sediment behind the growing folds. Since 5-6 Ma| increased sediment-accumulation (similar to 0.8 mm year(-1)) and gravel progradation (similar to 10 mm year(-1)) rates appear linked to higher deformation rates on the Keketamu| Atushi and Kashi anticlines and increased subsidence due to loading from both the Tian Shan and Pamir ranges| and possibly a change in climate causing accelerated erosion. Whereas the rapid (similar to 10 mm year(-1)) progradation of the Xiyu conglomerate after 4.0 Ma may be promoted by global climate change| its overall progradation since 15.5 Ma is due to the progressive encroachment of deformation into the foreland. 8335,2007,3,4,Circulation concentration of CO2/propane mixtures and the effect of their charge on the cooling performance in an air-conditioning system,CO2 and propane mixtures are considered as alternative refrigerants due to their negligible direct global warming potentials and favorable thermodynamic properties. To properly evaluate the system performance using zeotropic mixtures| the circulation concentration was measured and the cause for its shift from the charged concentration was discussed. The circulation concentration of CO2/propane mixtures has increased CO2 fraction than its charged concentration. In addition| the effect of refrigerant charge on the cooling performance was tested for the transcritical cycle of CO2 and the subcritical cycle of CO2/propane mixtures of 75/25 and 60/40 by the charged mass percentage. It is shown that CO2 refrigeration system could operate without a significant impact on its COP over a relatively wider range from the optimum charge. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 1373,2007,2,4,Citizen scientist rediscovers rare nine-spotted lady beetle| Coccinella novemnotata| in eastern North America,A single adult Coccinella novemnotata (the nine-spotted lady beetle) was recently discovered by a Cornell University student amongst a series of specimens collected in early October 2006 in Arlington| Virginia. The specimen is the first individual collected in eastern North America in over fourteen years and is only the sixth of its species known to be collected anywhere in North America in the last ten years. This discovery reopens questions regarding the current status of this once common species. Interactions with exotic species| global climate change| and shifting land use patterns have all been postulated as possible factors in this species decline. This discovery is the first in a new program in the USA designed to educate the public regarding biodiversity and conservation and to engage them in a survey of native and exotic lady beetle species. 1572,2007,3,4,Clean development mechanism and off-grid small-scale hydropower projects: Evaluation of additionality,The global climate change mitigation policies and their stress on sustainable development have made electrification of rural mountainous villages| using small hydro| an attractive destination for potential clean development mechanism (CDM) projects. This invariably involves judging the additionality of such projects. The paper suggests a new approach to judge the additionality of such stand-alone small hydropower projects. This has been done by breaking up additionality into two components: external and local. The external additionality is project developer dependent. For determining the local additionality| the paper takes into account the probability of a village getting electrified over a period of time| which is kept equal to the possible crediting period. This is done by defining an electrification factor (EF) whose value depends on the degree of isolation| financial constraints and institutional constraints encountered while electrifying a mountainous village. Using this EF| the additionality of a CDM project can be judged in a much easier and accurate way. The paper is based on the data and inputs gathered during site visits to many isolated villages located in the eastern Indian Himalayas. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8206,2007,2,4,Climate and rural income,This paper tests whether climate has an impact on per capita rural income. The study finds that total (agricultural and nonagricultural) income in rural counties and municipios in the US and Brazil are affected by climate. The study demonstrates that this income effect is due to changes in the net value of agriculture. Regions with better climates for agriculture support higher rural incomes and regions with poor climates have more rural poverty. The results also suggest that global warming will likely increase rural poverty. 7725,2007,4,4,Climate change and desertification vulnerability in Southern Italy,The Rio de Janeiro Conference (1992) brought the state of health of the environment and global warming to the focus of attention. As a contribution to ongoing studies in this regard| this paper investigates whether| over protracted periods during the 20(th) century| climate change occurred in two regions of southern Italy - Puglia and Sicilia. A twofold approach was adopted: firstly| climate long time series describing the thermo-pluviometric regimes of the two regions were examined for trends| using as a basis data on monthly rainfall (mm) and minimum/maximum temperature (degrees C). For Puglia| both the rainfall and temperature data used were those recorded at 21 stations during the period 1921-2001| whereas for Sicilia data recorded at 18 stations was used| however the rainfall data was for the period 1956-2000| while temperature data was for the period 1924-2003. Secondly| a comparison was made between the RIVAS-MARTINEZ ombrothermic indices for the two periods 1955-1985 and 1986-2000. Both regression-analysis results and RIVAS-MARTINEZ indices indicate an increase in aridity and thus a growing vulnerability to desertification. However| any climate change under way can be greatly influenced by local orographic systems| meaning that different trends may be found even at stations located relatively close to each other. There is no uniform pattern to the trends in climate change emerging from the statistical analyses undertaken here. Therefore local government planning needs to take account of factors at a global scale (at the level of the Mediterranean basin as a whole)| as well as factors at a regional and local scale| which are more closely linked to specific geomorphological characteristics. 8081,2007,2,4,Climate change and fisheries: Assessing the economic impact in Iceland and Greenland,Climate changes in the 21st century are expected to significantly increase ocean temperatures and modify other oceanographic conditions in the North Atlantic. Marine biological research suggests that the impacts oil the commercially most important fish stocks in the Icelandic-Greenland ecosystem may well be quite substantial. This will obviously lead to a corresponding impact oil the economics of these two countries. However| the timing| extent and biological impact of global warming is quite uncertain. As a. result the economic impact is similarly uncertain. This paper attempts to provide estimates of the impact of altered fish stocks due to global warming on the Icelandic and Greenland economies. The approach is one of stochastic simulations. This involves essentially three steps. The first is to obtain predictions of the impact of global warming on fish stocks and the associated probability distribution. For this we rely oil recent marine biological predictions. The second step is to estimate the role of the fisheries sector in the two economies. This is done with the help of modern econometric techniques based on economic growth theory and historical data. Obviously these estimates are also subject to stochastic errors and uncertainty. The third step is to carry out Monte Carlo simulations on the basis of the above model and the associated uncertainties. The result of the Monte Carlo simulations consists of a set of dynamic paths for GDP over time with;in expected value and a| probability distribution for each future year. Oil this basis it is possible to calculate confidence intervals for the most likely path of GDP over time. The results indicate that the fisheries impact of global warming oil the Icelandic GDP is more likely to be positive than negative brit unlikely to be of significant magnitude compared to historical economic growth rates and fluctuations. The uncertainty of this prediction| however| is large. For Greenland| the impact on fish stocks and the GDP is highly likely to be positive and quite substantial relative to the current| GDP. Due to less knowledge of the relationship between the fisheries sector and the Greenland economy| however| the confidence interval of this prediction is even wider than in the case of Iceland. 7779,2007,2,4,Climate Change and Pesticide Loss in Watershed Systems: A Simulation Modeling Study,This paper aims at examining the impacts of climate change on pesticide loss to surface water through a modeling study. An integrated modeling system which combined a distributed pesticide loss model with geographic information system (GIS)| database| and climate change scenarios was proposed. It can predict pesticide loss through runoff under climatic change conditions. A case study was used to calibrate and verify the proposed system. The atrazine loss in 2050 and 2100 was predicted under different climate change scenarios. With the global warming| the annual streamflow would augment by 3 to 5% and the total atrazine losses would also gradually increase by 1.4 to 1.7%. The maximum concentrations of atrazine in river would be raised by 2.5 to 23%. It was also found that the wet season would always take the biggest share of pesticide-loss contribution to the river. A sensitive analysis disclosed that both of streamflow and pesticide concentration are more sensitive to temperature increase than decrease. This study is the first one to quantify the relationship between pesticide loss and climate change through a mathematic modeling system. The results can help people more effectively assess climate-change impacts| manage pesticide practices| and control water pollution. 1567,2007,2,3,Climate change and range shifts in two insect defoliators: Gypsy moth and nun moth - A model study,Environmental factors influenced by global climate change determine the distribution ranges of organisms. Especially ectothermic animals are expected to shift their distribution ranges northwards in the next hundred years or so. In this study simulations made with CLIMEX-modelling software were used to predict the future distribution ranges of two Central European serious forest pest species: the nun moth (Lymantria monacha L. (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)) and the gypsy moth (L. dispar L). The software calculates an ecoclimatic index based on the life cycle requirements of a species and thus represents the probability of a viable population to exist at a certain location. Three different climate warming scenarios were considered: temperature increase of 1.4| 3.6 and 5.8 degrees C. Simulations generated with the current climate conditions corresponded well to the current distributions of the species. The climate warming scenarios shifted the northern boundary of the distribution for both of these species north by c. a. 500-700 km. Also the southern edge of the ranges retracted northwards by 100-900 km. The results of this study are in agreement with the results of empirical studies on other species. Being serious pest species| these species pose a potential threat to silviculture and therefore| have to be considered in the planning of forest management practices. 1536,2007,2,4,Climate change and the emergence of Vibrio vulnificus disease in Israel,In 1996| a major unexplained outbreak of systemic Vibrio vulnificus infection erupted among Israeli fish market workers. The origins of this emergent infectious disease have not been fully understood. A possible link between climate change and disease emergence is being investigated. Meteorological service data from 1981| the earliest detection and reporting of V vulnificus for the time in Israel| to 1998 for two stations located within the main inland fish farm industry were analyzed. The 1996-1998 summers were identified as the hottest ever recorded in Israel in the previous 40 years. Time series of monthly minimum| maximum| and mean temperatures showed significant increase in the summer temperatures along the 18 years. The highest minimum temperature value was recorded in summer 1996. Lag correlation analysis revealed significant correlations between temperature values and hospital admission dates. The eruption appeared 25-30 days after the extreme heat conditions in summer 1996| at a lag of 3 weeks in summer 1997 while the results for 1998 were at a lag of less than a week. Higher significant results were detected for the daily minimum temperatures in summer 1996 compatible with the disease eruption. These findings suggest that high water temperature might have impacted the ecology of our study area and caused the emergence of the disease| as an effect of global climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 8002,2007,2,2,Climate change and trace gases,Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback| the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water| provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate chan-e that could run out of our control. with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing| but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to Slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-Co-2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4)| as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (03)| which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000| 500 and 200 for 20| 100 and 500| years| respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes| so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice| while also having major benefits for human health| agricultural productivity and the global environment. 8331,2007,2,4,Climate change effects on mediterranean forests and preventive measures,This paper synthesizes and reviews literature concerning climate change effects on Mediterranean forest ecology and management as well as the restorative techniques necessary to maintain forest health| forest yield and biodiversity. Climate change compounded with trends of rural abandonment are likely to diminish forested areas within the Mediterranean basin that will be replaced by fire prone shrub communities. This could be favoured by outbreaks of pathogens| fire and other large-scale disturbances. Landscape fragmentation is expected to impede species migration. Annual increments and subsequent income from forests are expected to decrease. Reafforestations are necessary to ensure the presence of propagules of forest species and their site-specific varieties best adapted to future climatic conditions even though they may be different from the present forest-plant community. Current challenges in biodiversity conservation can only be met by afforestations whose main objective is to maintain ecosystem functioning. A new silviculture must emerge encompassing these habitat displacement and economic concerns while maximizing carbon sequestration. 7891,2007,2,2,Climate change impact on rainfed wheat in south-eastern Australia,Low| mid and high daily climate scenarios (2000-2070)| as per the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were generated using the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's (CSIRO's) global atmosphere models. These scenarios based on IPCC's 21st century emission scenarios that combine a variety of assumptions about demographic| economic and technological driving forces likely to influence such emissions in the future| were used as input to a crop model to predict the impact of climate change on wheat yield at a location in south-eastern Australia. At this locality there are important likely changes in the primary climatic variables of temperature| rainfall and solar radiation. Generally| we found a strong and consistent positive trend in mean diurnal temperature range| followed by a significant negative trend in wheat yield under three climate scenarios with and without elevated CO2 concentration. It is possible that negative trends identified over the future decades may be artefacts of the method of substituting historical variance for future variance. We observed that from present climate to projected low| mid and high global warming scenarios| median wheat yield may decrease by about 29%. Under these scenarios| but with an elevated atmospheric CO2 climate| median wheat yield may decrease by about 25%. The effect of elevated CO2 reduces the severity of the warmer air temperatures and lower rainfall but the effect is small (4%). Advances in agronomy and breeding must boost crop yields by around 25% over the coming decades| to keep in step with predicted climate change. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7772,2007,2,4,Climate change impacts on structure and diversity of fish communities in rivers,It is widely accepted that climate change constrains biota. Yet| because of the lack of consistent multisite and multitaxon surveys| few studies have addressed general rules about how climate change impacts on structure and diversity of animal communities. Especially| the relative influence of nonclimatic anthropogenic disturbances on this impact is fairly unknown. Here| we present for the first time a meta-analysis assessing the effect of global warming on stream organisms. Fish communities of large rivers in France undergoing various anthropogenic pressures showed significant increase in proportions of warm-water species and of specific richness during the last 15-25 years. Conversely| the equitability decreased| indicating a gradual decrease of the number of dominant species. Finally| the total abundance increased| coupled with rejuvenation and changes in size-structure of the communities. Interestingly| most of these effects were not depressed by the strength of nonclimatic anthropogenic disturbances. Conversely| geographical location of communities and especially closeness of natural barriers to migration could influence their response to climate change. Indeed| increase in the proportion of southern species seemed hindered at sites located close to the southern limit of the European species' geographical ranges. This work provides new evidence that climate change have deep impacts on communities which| by overtaking the effects of nonclimatic anthropogenic disturbances| could be more substantial than previously thought. Overall| our results stress the importance of considering climate change impacts in studies addressing community dynamics| even in disturbed sites. 8165,2007,2,4,Climate change influence on POPs distribution and fate: A case study,Climate change has the potential of affecting the behaviour and distribution of organic pollutants| including POPs. Direct effects of climate change| like temperature increase| modification of wind and precipitation patterns| sea level rise| snow and ice cover| may be very effective in altering the partitioning of POPs among the environmental compartments. Other consequences of future climate scenarios may imply the alteration of degradation rates| soil properties (and hence land use)| air-particle partitioning of chemicals and so forth. A case study is here presented to illustrate the major implications of climate change on the long term at the local scale. A dynamic multimedia model was applied to selected PCB and PCDD/F congeners to simulate the effects of climate change on their distribution and fluxes over the next 50 y in the Venice Lagoon (Italy). Different climate change scenarios were tested| finding noticeable variations in POPs concentration even for minor environmental changes. PCBs and PCDFs environmental concentrations may differ by a factor two in a moderate climate change scenario| compared to a situation with stable climate over the next 50 y. However| model results also suggest that if global warming may have the potential of reducing the environmental levels of these chemicals| it would probably enhance their mobility and hence their potential for long range atmospheric transport. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7829,2007,2,4,Climate change over the yarlung zangbo river basin during 1961-2005,The Yarlung Zangbo River (YR) is the highest great river in the world| and its basin is one of the centers of human economic activity in Tibet. Using 10 meteorological stations over the YR basin in 1961-2005| the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation as well as potential evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) The annual and four seasonal mean air temperature shows statistically significant increasing trend| the tendency is more significant in winter and fall. The warming in Lhasa river basin is most significant. (2) The precipitation is decreasing from the 1960s to the 1980s and increasing since the 1980s. From 1961 to 2005| the annual and four seasonal mean precipitation is increasing but not statistically significant| especially in fall and spring. The increasing precipitation rates are more pronounced in Niyangqu and Palong Zangbo river basins| the closer to the upper YR is| the less precipitation increasing rate would be. (3) The annual and four seasonal mean potential evapotranspiration has decreased| especially after the 1980s| and most of it happens in winter and spring. The decreasing trend is most significant in the middle YR and Nianchu river basin. (4) Compared with the Mt. Qomolangma region| Tibetan Plateau| China and global average| the magnitudes of warming trend over the YR basin since the 1970s exceed those areas in the same period| and compared with the Tibetan Plateau| the magnitudes of precipitation increasing and potential evapotranspiration decreasing are larger| suggesting that the YR basin is one of the most sensitive areas to global warming. 7721,2007,2,4,Climate changes and post-nuptial migration strategy by two reedbed passerine,Phenology of biological systems is the expression of selective pressures forcing organisms to match their energy requirements to seasonal variations in resource availability. For long-distance migrant organisms| migration strategy is shaped by the availability and quality of stopovers during a precise time period. Ongoing climate changes alter the usual spatial and temporal distribution of resources| and| as a result| migrant species return earlier to their breeding grounds. Less is known on the evolution and determinants of timing of departure to wintering grounds| i.e. post-breeding migration. We analysed timing of post-nuptial migration and stopover strategy with capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data in 2 reedbed insectivorous passerines: the sedge warbler Acrocephalus schoenobaenus| specialised on a thermo-dependant prey| and the generalist reed warbler A. scirpaceus. Spring temperatures increased through years (0.16 +/- 0.047 degrees C yr(-1))| and studied species migrated earlier in recent years (-0.73 +/- 0.086 d yr(-1)). Autumnal migration phenology was negatively related to spring (March) temperature (-2.54 +/- 0.19 d degrees C(-1))| whereas it was not related to autumnal temperatures. We suggest that this results from a major time shift (i.e. advance) in biomass production caused by global warming. Stopover duration (estimated by CMR analysis) was positively related to body mass gain| with a trend for a stronger effect in the specialised species. However| neither stopover duration nor body mass gain were related to spring temperature| suggesting that the advance in migration timing efficiently adapted bird phenology to temporal variations in resources. 8330,2007,2,4,Climate effects and benthic-pelagic coupling in the North Sea,The North Sea is one of the most biologically productive ecosystems in the world and supports important fisheries. Climate-induced changes occurred in the pelagic ecosystems of the North Sea during the 1980s. These changes| which have been observed from phytoplankton to fish and among permanent (holoplankton) and temporary (meroplankton) plankton species| have resulted in alterations in plankton community composition and seasonality. Until now| the effects of climate-driven changes on biological linkages between pelagic and benthic ecosystems have not been examined. The present study indicates that changes in benthic organisms could have a profound effect on the trophodynamics of the pelagos. We demonstrate this by analyses of a long-term time series of North Sea plankton and sea surface temperature data. We discover that pronounced changes in the North Sea meroplankton| mainly related to an increased abundance and spatial distribution of the larvae of a benthic echinoderm| Echinocardium cordatum| result primarily from a stepwise increase in sea temperature after 1987 that has caused warmer conditions to occur earlier in the year than previously. Key stages of reproduction in E. cordatum| gametogenesis and spawning| appear to be influenced by winter and spring sea temperature and their larval development is affected by the quantity and quality of their phytoplankton food. Our analyses suggest that a new thermal regime in the North Sea in winter and spring may have benefited reproduction and survival in this benthic species. As a result| E. cordatum may be altering the trophodynamics of the summer pelagic ecosystem through competition between its larvae and holozooplankton taxa. 8054,2007,3,3,Climate impact of black carbon emitted from energy consumption in the world's regions,We have used the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique General Circulation Model (LMD GCM) to estimate the contribution of different regions to global black carbon ( BC) atmospheric burden and direct radiative forcing (DRF). On the global scale| fossil fuels and biofuels account for 66% and 34% of energy-related BC emissions| respectively. East and South Asia together contribute more than 50% of the global surface| atmospheric| and top-of-atmosphere DRF by BC. The regional contributions to global mean forcings closely follow the respective contributions to atmospheric burden. The global warming potential (GWP) of BC for different regions ranges from 374 to 677 with a global mean of 480. Europe is the largest contributor (63%) to BC deposition at high latitudes. The indirect GWP due to the BC effect on snow albedo is estimated to be largest for Europe ( possibly as large as 1200)| suggesting that BC emission reductions from this region are more efficient to mitigate climate change. 8177,2007,2,4,Climate increases regional tree-growth variability in Iberian pine forests,Tree populations located at the geographical distribution limit of the species may provide valuable information about tree-growth response to changes on climatic conditions. We established nine Pinus nigra| 12 P. sylvestris and 17 P. uncinata tree-ring width chronologies along the eastern and northern Iberian Peninsula| where these species are found at the edge of their natural range. Tree-growth variability was analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA) for the period 1885-1992. Despite the diversity of species| habitats and climatic regimes| a common macroclimatic signal expressed by the first principal component (PC1) was found. Moreover| considering the PC1 scores as a regional chronology| significant relations were established with Spanish meteorological data. The shared variance held by the tree chronologies| the frequency of narrow rings and the interannual growth variability (sensitivity) increased markedly during the studied period. This shows an enhancement of growth synchrony among forests indicating that climate might have become more limiting to growth. Noticeably| an upward abrupt shift in common variability at the end of the first half of the 20th century was detected. On the other hand| moving-interval response functions showed a change in the growth-climate relationships during the same period. The relationship between growth and late summer/autumn temperatures of the year before growth (August-September| negative correlation| and November| positive correlation) became stronger. Hence| water stress increase during late summer previous to tree growth could be linked to the larger growth synchrony among sites| suggesting that climate was driving the growth pattern changes. This agrees with the upward trend in temperature observed in these months. Moreover| the higher occurrence of extreme years and the sensitivity increase in the second half of the 20th century were in agreement with an increment in precipitation variability during the growing period. Precipitation variability was positively related to tree-growth variability| but negatively to radial growth. In conclusion| a change in tree-growth pattern and in the climatic response of the studied forests was detected since the mid-20th century and linked to an increase in water stress. These temporal trends were in agreement with the observed increase in warmer conditions and in precipitation variability. 7910,2007,4,3,Climate sensitivity of tropical and subtropical marine low cloud amount to ENSO and global warming due to doubled CO2,In this study| we systematically analyzed the sensitivity of tropical and subtropical marine low cloud amount to the short-term climate anomaly associated with the 1997 1998 El Nino and the long-term climate change caused by doubled CO2 using the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud measurements| European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalyses| and the sea surface temperature (SST) forced and coupled simulations performed by the latest version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models. It is found that the changes in low cloud amount associated with the 1997 -1998 El Nino and the doubled CO2 induced climate change have different characteristics and are controlled by different physical processes. Most reduction in low cloud amount related to the 1997 -1998 El Nino occurs in the eastern tropical Pacific associated with an upward large-scale motion and a weak atmospheric stability measured by the 500 hPa vertical velocity and the potential temperature difference between 700 hPa and the surface| and is negatively correlated to the local SST anomaly. In addition to the other mechanisms suggested by the previous studies| our analyses based on the ISCCP observations indicate that the change in atmospheric convective activities in these regions is one of the reasons responsible for the change in low cloud amount. In contrast| most increase in low cloud amount due to doubled CO2 simulated by the NCAR and GFDL models occurs in the subtropical subsidence regimes associated with a strong atmospheric stability| and is closely related to the spatial change pattern of SST consistent with previous studies. The increase in low cloud amount appears to favor the location where SST is less increased. After removing the background mean SST increase due to doubled CO2| the results show a clear negative correlation between the change in low cloud and the SST change. An analysis based on the simple atmospheric mixed layer model demonstrates a thermodynamic reason for such a change. The increase in the above-inversion atmospheric stratification due to doubled CO2 tends to reduce the mixed layer depth in the areas with a small temperature increase| which helps to trap the moisture within the mixed layer| thus| favors low cloud formation. 8133,2007,4,5,Climate stability: an inconvenient proof,This paper demonstrates that we widely prophesied doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from natural| pre-industral values will enhance the so-called 'greenhouse effect' but will almost to less than 1 degrees C of global warming. It also points out that such a scenario is unlikely to arise given our limited reserves of fossil fuels-certainly not before the end of this century. Furthermore| the paper argues that general circulation models are as yet insufficiently accurate for civil engineers to rely on their predictions in any forward-planning decisions-the omission of solar wind effects being a potentially significant shortcoming. It concludes that the only certainty is that the world's fossil fuel resources are finite and should be used prudently and with proper respect to the environment.
1403,2007,2,4,Climate-driven range expansion of a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters,Global climate change is driving rapid distribution shifts in marine ecosystems; these are well established for lower trophic levels| but are harder to quantify for migratory top predators. By analysing a 25-year sightings-based dataset| we found evidence for rapid northwards range expansion of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus in northeast Atlantic waters. A 0.6 degrees C sea surface temperature increase in the mid-1990s is interpreted as an underlying controlling factor| while simultaneous northward shifts of plankton and prey fish species suggests a strong bottom-up control. Our results have important conservation implications and provide new evidence for climate-driven regime shift in Atlantic ecosystems. 8226,2007,2,4,Climate-driven warming during spring destabilises a Daphnia population: a mechanistic food web approach,Temperature-driven changes in interactions between populations are crucial to the estimation of the impact of global warming on aquatic food webs. We analysed inter-annual variability in two data sets from Bautzen reservoir| Germany. In a long-term data set (1981-1999) we examined the pelagic phenology of Daphnia galeata| a keystone species| the invertebrate predator Leptodora kindtii| phytoplankton and Secchi depth in relation to water temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. In a short-term data set (1995-1998) we examined food web relations| particularly the consumption of D. galeata by young-of-the-year (YOY) percids and L. kindtii and rates of population change of D. galeata (abundance| recruitment pattern and non-consumptive mortality). The start of the clear-water stage (CWS) was correlated with winter temperatures. It started 5.8 days earlier per degree warming after warm winters (mean January-March temperature >= 2.5 degrees C) compared to cold winters (mean temperature < 2.5 degrees C). However| the end of the CWS remained relatively constant. Predation by L. kindtii and YOY percids on D. galeata started distinctly earlier| i.e. by 13.0 and 6.5 days per degree warming| respectively| in years when the average May temperature was high (>= 14 degrees C) compared to years when it was low (< 14 degrees C). Significant reductions of Daphnia abundance in midsummer occurred only in years in which the mean May temperature exceeded 14 degrees C. This temperature regime resulted in a match of over-exploitation of food resources by Daphnia during the CWS and strong predation by YOY percids and L. kindtii. Consumptive mortality increased at higher rates with a rise in temperature than net recruitment| resulting in lower Daphnia densities at the end of the CWS. Our data suggest that even low warming by 1.7 degrees C during a short| but critical seasonal period| resulting in the coincidence of two or more factors adversely affecting a keystone species| such as Daphnia| may induce changes in whole lake food webs and thus alter entire ecosystems. 8096,2007,4,3,Climatic timescale temperature and precipitation increases on Long Island| New York,Global warming due to increased greenhouse gases is believed to result in not only higher surface temperatures but also an acceleration of the hydrological cycle leading to increased precipitation. Although climate models consistently predict increases in global temperatures due to increasing greenhouse gases and the accompanying global warming| observations at the climatic timescales necessary to confirm the models are rare. Multidecadal studies at global and regional scales are necessary to determine whether the presently observed changes in temperature and precipitation are due to short-term fluctuations or long-term trends. In this study| we address this issue by examining changes in temperature and precipitation on Long Island| New York over a 74-year time period (1931 to 2004) using a network of rain gauges and temperature measurements. The mean annual temperature on Long Island has increased at a rate of 0.05 degrees C per decade| which is less than that of observed global values and is most likely due to the urban warming effects of New York City| not large-scale climate change. The mean total annual precipitation has increased at a rate of 0.71 cm per decade during the study period| which is consistent with global observations. Intra-annual temperature fluctuations are decreasing at a rate of 0.36% per decade| while precipitation variations are increasing at a rate of 0. 91 % per decade. Empirical orthogonal function analysis indicates that variations in temperature and precipitation on Long Island are dominated by island-wide fluctuations that are directly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation| the Arctic Oscillation| and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. 1505,2007,2,4,Climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971-2000,Trends of annual and monthly temperature| precipitation| potential evapotranspiration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971-2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FA056-Penmen-Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and minimum temperatures| solar radiation| relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate generally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures| increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September| decreasing trends of annual and monthly potential evapotranspiration| and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions| but their integrated and simultaneous effect. Moreover| potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November| and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships| and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary. 1386,2007,4,4,Climatic variability in the meridional mode of global atmospheric circulation during recent 60 years,The climatic variability in the meridional mode of global atmospheric circulation is investigated by using the monthly geopotential height fields at 1000| 500| and 100 hPa during 1948 and 2004. The data are taken from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The leading meridional mode shows opposite characteristics in its spatial and temporal distributions at the high and low latitudes at the three levels. The latitude differences are significantly enlarged in recent 60 years. An abrupt change occurred in the mid-1970s| leading the phases of the first mode reversed at the low and high latitudes in both hemispheres. The variability is generally larger in Southern Hemisphere (SH) at 1000 and 500 hPa| but in Northern Hemisphere (NH) at 100 hPa. In contrast| the second meridional mode shows different features in its spatial and temporal distributions. It mainly manifests as the AAO and AO at 1000 and 100 hPa. The two oscillations have a negative correlation at interannual and interdecadal scales| and show strong anti-phase variations at the SH and NH high latitudes at 100 hPa level| suggesting that the mode could connect the SH and NH circulation at mid- and high latitudes and affect global climate change. 1543,2007,4,4,Climatological aspects of convective parameters from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis,Annual cycles of convectively important atmospheric parameters have been computed for a variety of from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global reanalysis| using 7 years of reanalysis data. Regions in the central United States show stronger seasonality in combinations of thermodynamic parameters than found elsewhere in North America or Europe. As a result| there is a period of time in spring and early summer when climatological mean conditions are supportive of severe thunderstorms. The annual cycles help in understanding the large-scale processes that lead to the combination of atmospheric ingredients necessary for strong convection. This| in turn| lays groundwork for possible changes in distribution of the environments associated with possible global climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7825,2007,2,4,Clinical symptoms| treatment and outcome of Highlands malaria in Eldoret (2420 m a.s.l.) and comparison to malaria in hyper-immune population in endemic region of Southern Sudan,Malaria should not be present in altitudes more than 1800 m a.s.l. However due to global warming| highlands malaria (HM) occurs up to 2 000 m. The purpose of this study is comparison of clinical picture and prognosis of HM and compare it to malaria in endemic region of southern Sudan (endemic malaria EM) among hyper-immune population. 7963,2007,2,5,Cloud and radiation budget changes associated with tropical intraseasonal oscillations,We explore the daily evolution of tropical intraseasonal oscillations in satellite-observed tropospheric temperature| precipitation| radiative fluxes| and cloud properties. The warm/rainy phase of a composited average of fifteen oscillations is accompanied by a net reduction in radiative input into the ocean-atmosphere system| with longwave heating anomalies transitioning to longwave cooling during the rainy phase. The increase in longwave cooling is traced to decreasing coverage by ice clouds| potentially supporting Lindzen's '' infrared iris '' hypothesis of climate stabilization. These observations should be considered in the testing of cloud parameterizations in climate models| which remain sources of substantial uncertainty in global warming prediction. 1357,2007,2,4,Cloud water in windward and leeward mountain forests: The stable isotope signature of orographic cloud water,[1] Cloud water can be a significant hydrologic input to mountain forests. Because it is a precipitation source that is vulnerable to climate change| it is important to quantify amounts of cloud water input at watershed and regional scales. During this study| cloud water and rain samples were collected monthly for 2 years at sites on windward and leeward East Maui. The difference in isotopic composition between volume-weighted average cloud water and rain samples was 1.4% delta(18) O and 12% delta(2)H for the windward site and 2.8% delta(18) O and 25% delta(2)H for the leeward site| with the cloud water samples enriched in (18)O and (2)H relative to the rain samples. A summary of previous literature shows that fog and/or cloud water is enriched in (18)O and (2)H compared to rain at many locations around the world; this study documents cloud water and rain isotopic composition resulting from weather patterns common to montane environments in the trade wind latitudes. An end-member isotopic composition for cloud water was identified for each site and was used in an isotopic mixing model to estimate the proportion of precipitation input from orographic clouds. Orographic cloud water input was 37% of the total precipitation at the windward site and 46% at the leeward site. This represents an estimate of water input to the forest that could be altered by changes in cloud base altitude resulting from global climate change or deforestation. 8393,2007,4,1,CO2 emissions from road transport and selected parts in the Kosice city,In present| climatic changes are the most important and urgent world-wide problems. They are a real and uprising threat for our environment. An intensive climatic research and monitoring yielded a better knowledge about the reasons and effects of global warming. Global warming in range of 1|4 to 5|8 degrees C affects weather| year seasons| ecosystems| water sources| health of citizens| as well as global and domestic economy. Nowadays| it is clear that the climatic unstability is mostly caused by human activities. 21 % of total CO2 emissions in Europe comes from traffic| which is one of the biggest source of greenhouse effect gases and rises up to 2|5 % every year. A main reason is the increasing automobile and airplane transport. 8265,2007,4,3,CO2 emissions vs. CO2 responsibility: An input-output approach for the Turkish economy,Recently| global warming (greenhouse effect) and its effects have become one of the hottest topics in the world agenda. There have been several international attempts to reduce the negative effects of global warming. The Kyoto Protocol can be cited as the most important agreement which tries to limit the countries' emissions within a time horizon. For this reason| it becomes important to calculate the greenhouse gas emissions of countries. The aim of this study is to estimate the amount Of CO2-the most important greenhouse gas-emissions| for the Turkish economy. An extended input-output model is estimated by using 1996 data in order to identify the sources Of CO2 emissions and to discuss the share of sectors in total emission. Besides| 'CO2 responsibility'| which takes into account the CO2 content of imports| is estimated for the Turkish economy. The sectoral CO2 emissions and CO2 responsibilities are compared and these two notions are linked to foreign trade volume. One of the main conclusions is that the manufacturing industry has the first place in both of the rankings for CO2 emissions and CO2 responsibilities| while agriculture and husbandry has the last place. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1444,2007,2,4,Coastal flood risk analysis using landsat-7 ETM+ imagery and SRTM DEM: A case study of Izmir| turkey,The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports an acceleration of the global mean sea-level rise (MSLR) in the twentieth century in response to global climate change. If this acceleration remains constant| then some coastal areas are most likely to be inundated by the year 2100. The ability to identify the differential vulnerability of coastlines to future inundation hazards as result of global climate change is necessary for timely actions to be taken. Yildiz et al. (Journal of Mapping| 17| 1 75| 2003) reported that the local MSLR in the city of Izmir rose at a rate of 6.8 +/- 0.9 mm year(-1) between 1984 and 2002. In this study| the spatial distribution of the coastal inundation hazards of Izmir region was determined using not only land-use and land-cover (LULC) types derived from the maximum likelihood classification of Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) multi-spectral image set but also the classification of the digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM). Coastal areas with elevations of 2 and 5 m above mean sea-level vulnerable to inundation were found to cover 2.1 and 3.7% of the study region (6|107 km(2))| respectively. Our findings revealed that Menemen plain along Gediz river| and the settlements of Karsiyaka| Alacati| Aliaga| Candarli and Selcuk are at high risk in order of decreasing vulnerability to permanent and episodic inundation by 2100 under the high MSLR scenarios of 20 to 50 mm year(-1). 8153,2007,3,3,Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation,The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO2 to the atmosphere| which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However| biophysical effects of deforestation| which include changes in land surface albedo| evapotranspiration| and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land| atmosphere| and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate| because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming| but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation| forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate. 7973,2007,4,4,Combined effects of urbanization and global warming on subsurface temperature in four Asian cities,Subsurface temperature profiles measured in boreholes can be analyzed to infer depths of thermal disturbance and associated surface warming due to combined global warming and urbanization (heat island effects). Asian cities are extremely vulnerable because of rapid increases in population. Average subsurface temperature profiles in four Asian cities (Tokyo| Osaka| Seoul| and Bangkok) were compared and analyzed to evaluate the effects of surface warming. The magnitude of surface warming is largest in Tokyo (2.8 degrees C)| followed by Seoul (2.5 degrees C)| Osaka (2.2 degrees C)| and Bangkok (1.8 degrees C). Comparisons between analytical solutions and observations show that the mean depth of deviation from the regional geothermal gradient in each urban area may be one of the indicators of the history of urbanization in each city. The mean depth of deviation from the steady thermal gradient| which is approximately 140 m in Tokyo| 80 m in Osaka| and 50 m in Seoul and Bangkok| indicates the time from the start of the additional heat from urbanization. These results agree qualitatively with air temperature records in the cities during the last 100 yr. The heat island effect on subsurface temperature is an important global groundwater quality issue because it may alter the groundwater systems chemically and microbiologically. Measurement of subsurface temperature data provides important information for understanding the joint effects of urbanization and global warming on groundwater systems. 8024,2007,3,2,Combined particle emission reduction and heat recovery from combustion exhaust - A novel approach for small wood-fired appliances,Replacing fossil fuels by renewable sources of energy is one approach to address the problem of global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Wood combustion can help to replace fuel oil or gas. It is advisable| however| to use modern technology for combustion and exhaust gas after-treatment in order to achieve best efficiency and avoid air quality problems due to high emission levels often related to small scale wood combustion. In this study| simultaneous combustion particle deposition and heat recovery from the exhaust of two commercially available wood-fired appliances has been investigated. The experiments were performed with a miniature pipe bundle heat exchanger operating in the exhaust gas lines of a fully automated pellet burner or a closed fireplace. The system has been characterised for a wide range of aerosol inlet temperatures (135-295 degrees C) and flow velocities (0.13-1.0ms(-1))| and particle deposition efficiencies up to 95% have been achieved. Deposition was dominated by thermophoresis and diffusion and increased with the average temperature difference and retention time in the heat exchanger. The aerosols from the two different appliances exhibited different deposition characteristics| which can be attributed to enhanced deposition of the nucleation mode particles generated in the closed fire place. The measured deposition efficiencies can be described by simple linear parameterisations derived from laboratory studies. The results of this study demonstrate the feasibility of thermophoretic particle removal from biomass burning flue gas and support the development of modified heat exchanger systems with enhanced capability for simultaneous heat recovery and particle deposition. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1514,2007,4,4,Combining airborne photographs and spaceborne SAR data to monitor temperate glaciers: Potentials and limits,Monitoring temperate glacier activity has become more and more necessary for economical and security reasons and as an indicator of the local effects of global climate change. Remote sensing data provide useful information on such complex geophysical objects| but they require specific processing techniques to cope with the difficult context of moving and changing features in high-relief areas. This paper presents the first results of a project involving four laboratories developing and combining specific methods to extract information from optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. Two different information sources are processed| namely: 1) airborne photography and 2) spaceborne C-band SAR interferometry. The difficulties and limitations of their processing in the context of Alpine glaciers are discussed and illustrated on two glaciers located in the Mont-Blanc area. The results obtained by aerial triangulation techniques provide digital terrain models with an accuracy that is better than 30 cm| which is compatible with the computation of volume balance and useful for precise georeferencing and slope measurement updating. The results obtained by SAR differential interferometry using European Remote Sensing Satellite images show that it is possible to measure temperate glacier surface velocity fields from October to April in one-day interferograms with approximately 20-m ground sampling. This allows to derive ice surface strain rate fields required to model the glacier flow. These different measurements are complementary to results obtained during the summer from satellite optical data and ground measurements that are available only in few accessible points. 7906,2007,4,4,Combining reverse osmosis and electrodialysis for more complete recovery of dissolved organic matter from seawater,Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the oceans is one of the largest dynamic carbon reservoirs on earth. The composition and fate of this carbon reservoir is of great interest to earth scientists| atmospheric scientists| and biologists who study global biogeochemical cycles and global warming. Current techniques for the extraction and purification of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from seawater for research purposes recover at best only 30 wt% of DOC. A new technique for the recovery of DOM from seawater has been developed by combining electrodialysis and reverse osmosis. Here we present shipboard results and laboratory work to show the feasibility of our technique. DOC recoveries exceeding 60% and even exceeding 90% for one seawater sample have been found. Analysis of samples recovered using this technique will yield new insights into the cycling of DOC in the oceans. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8012,2007,3,4,Comparative life cycle studies on poly(3-hydroxybutyrate)-based composites as potential replacement for conventional petrochemical plastics,A cradle-to-grave environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) of a few poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) (PHB) based composites has been performed and was compared to commodity petrochemical polymers. The end products studied are a cathode ray tube (CRT) monitor housing (conventionally produced from high-impact polystyrene| HIPS) and the internal panels of an average car (conventionally produced from glass-fibers-filled polypropylene| PP-GF). The environmental impact is evaluated on the basis of nonrenewable energy use (NREU) and global warming potential over a 100 years time horizon (GWP100). Sugar cane bagasse (SCB) and nanoscaled organophilic montmorillonite (OMMT) are used as PHB fillers. The results obtained show that| despite the unsatisfying mechanical properties of PHB composites| depending on the type of filler and on the product| it is possible to reach lower environmental impacts than by use of conventional petrochemical polymers. These savings are mainly related to the PHB production process| while there are no improvements related to composites preparation. SCB-based composites seem to be environmentally superior to clay-based ones. 8033,2007,2,4,Comparative thermal requirements of westslope cutthroat trout and rainbow 11-out: Implications for species interactions and development of thermal protection standards,Water temperature appears to play a key role in determining population persistence of westslope cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi| but specific thermal performance and survival criteria have not been defined. We used the acclimated chronic exposure laboratory method to determine upper thermal tolerances and growth optima of westslope cutthroat trout and rainbow trout O. mykiss| a potential normative competitor that occupies much of the former range of westslope cutthroat trout. Rainbow trout had a distinct survival advantage over westslope cutthroat trout at water temperatures above 20 degrees C. The ultimate upper incipient lethal temperature of rainbow trout (24.3 degrees C; 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 24.0-24.7 degrees C) was 4.7 degrees C higher than that of westslope cutthroat trout (19.6 degrees C; 95% CI = 19.1-19.9 degrees C). In contrast| both species had similar growth rates and optimum growth temperatures (westslope cutthroat trout: 13.6 degrees C; rainbow trout: 13.1 degrees C) over the temperature range of 8-20 degrees C| although rainbow trout grew over a wider range and at higher temperatures than did westslope cutthroat trout. The rainbow trout's higher upper temperature tolerance and greater growth capacity at warmer temperatures may account for the species' displacement of westslope cutthroat trout at lower elevations. Our results indicate that maximum daily temperatures near the optimum growth temperature of 13-15 degrees C would ensure suitable thermal habitat for westslope cutthroat trout populations. The low upper temperature tolerance and optimum growth temperature of westslope cutthroat trout relative to those of other salmonids suggest that this subspecies may be particularly susceptible to stream temperature increases associated with global warming and anthropogenic habitat disturbance. 8000,2007,4,3,Comparing the climate effect of emissions of short- and long-lived climate agents,Multi-gas climate agreements require a metric by which emissions of gases with different lifetimes and radiative properties can be placed on a common scale. The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the global warming potential (GWP) as such a metric. The GWP has attracted particular criticism as being inappropriate in the context of climate policy which seeks to restrict warming below a given target| because it gives equal weight to emissions irrespective of the target and the proximity to the target. The use of an alternative metric| the time-dependent global temperature change potential (GTP)| is examined for its suitability and the prospects for it including very short-lived species. It retains the transparency and relative ease of use| which are attractive features of the GWP| but explicitly includes a dependence on the target of climate policy. The weighting of emissions using the GTP is found to be significantly dependent on the scenarios of future emissions and the sensitivity of the climate system. This may indicate that the use of any GTP-based weighting in future policymaking would necessitate regular revisions| as the global-mean temperature moves towards a specified target. 8349,2007,3,4,Comparison of various balance systems for energy conservation in a vertically articulated manipulator with three joints,It is important to conserve dissipated energy from machines in order to reduce global warming. This paper discusses energy conservation in a vertically articulated three-joint manipulator with a rotation-pivot-pivot structure. The amount of dissipated energy can be decreased by canceling out the gravity on the second and the third links of the manipulator using a mass balancer or a spring balancer. Mass balancers are designed optimally by diminishing the inertia matrix so that the amount of dissipated energy can be minimized. Three kinds of counterbalancer systems| which include a mass-mass balancer| a spring-mass balancer and a spring-spring balancer| are designed optimally. Energy is compared among the three types of counterbalancers mounted on a three-link manipulator in simulation. The simulation indicates that a spring-mass balancer is more practical because of the considerable energy conservation effect and simplicity in implementation. In order to confirm the simulation results| the dissipated energy is measured experimentally using a practical system of a directly-driven manipulator on which a suboptimal mass-mass balancer or a spring-mass balancer is mounted. As a result| the measured dissipated energy is approximately the same as the result obtained by simulation. 7748,2007,3,4,Computational and experimental investigation of low ODP and low GWP HCFC-123 and HC-290 refrigerant mixture alternate to CFC-12,At the advent of the Montreal protocol| R134a has been suggested as an alternate refrigerant to R12. R134a is a high global warming potential gas and needs to be controlled as per the Kyoto protocol. It is reported that there is no single refrigerant or mixture available to satisfy both the ozone depletion potential (ODP) and global warming potential (GWP) issues. In this scenario| the objective of this work was| to develop an eco-friendly refrigerant mixture with negligible ODP and GWP values that is nearly equivalent to R12 in its performance. R123 is a potential refrigerant with very low ODP and GWP values| but due to its high suction specific volume and high boiling point| it has not been considered as an alternate refrigerant to R12. In this work| to overcome the above said problems| R290 has been identified as suitable for combination with R123 in a refrigerant mixture. Using REFPROP for analysis| it was found that the performance parameters for a mixture containing 70% R123 and 30% R290 were near matching with R12. This has been further confirmed experimentally by conducting a base line test with R12 and tests with the new mixture. The flow characteristics of the mixture were compared with R12 and presented. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8390,2007,4,4,Concentration Sensor for Hydrogen-Methane Mixed Gas Based on Quartz Oscillator,Quartz is used in various devices| since it can be easily vibrated by the piezoelectric effect and controlled in an electric circuit. The force| which acts on the vibrating body| follows the principles of fluid dynamics; this phenomenon is explained in detail by the Navier-Stokes equation that is a fundamental equation of motion of a flow system. The authors measured the drag acting on a vibrating body (i.e.| a quartz oscillator) settled within a hydrogen-methane mixed gas. The quartz oscillator is sensitive to temperature| pressure| and viscosity. It was placed in a constant temperature bath to control the temperature accurately. A pressure gauge was also placed into the same bath| and the pressure inside the tube was controlled by using a piezo valve. This drag is measured and converted into a physical property by using an approximate solution of the Navier-Stokes equation. The drag changes depending on gas conditions| because the property of a gas differs under different conditions. If a quartz oscillator can detect this difference| it can be used as a sensor for a gas. In this study| the authors attempted to ascertain the possibility of using a quartz oscillator as a concentration sensor for a hydrogen-methane mixed gas. The large-scale project on hydrogen-methane mixed gas that has begun in Europe shows the increasing concern for devices using hydrogen-methane mixed gas among the countries because of environmental issues. Differences in the mixture ratio of the hydrogen-methane mixed gas were successfully determined by this sensor. 1384,2007,5,4,Connecting local environmental sequences to global climate patterns: evidence from the hominin-bearing Hadar Formation| Ethiopia,Central to the debate surrounding global climate change and Plio-Pleistocene hominin evolution is the degree to which orbital-scale climate patterns influence low-latitude continental ecosystems and how these influences can be distinguished from regional volcano-tectonic events and local environmental effects. The Pliocene Hadar Formation of Ethiopia preserves a record of hominin paleoenvironments from roughly 3.5 to 2.2 Ma at a temporal resolution relevant to evolutionary change within hominins and other taxa. This study integrates the high-resolution sedimentological and paleontological records at Hadar with climate proxies such as marine core isotope| dust| and sapropel records. Consistent cycling observed both between and within fluvial and lacustrine depositional environments prior to 2.9 Ma at Hadar appears to be predominantly climatic in nature. In contrast a significant change in depositional facies after 2.9 Ma to sequences dominated by conglomerate cut-and-fill cycles indicates a strong tectonic signature related to regional developments in the Main Ethiopian Rift. While specific events seen in marine proxy records may have parallels in the Hadar environmental archive| their overall patterns of high versus low variability may be even more relevant. For example| periods of relatively high-amplitude climate oscillations between 3.15 and 2.95 Ma may be linked to noted size-related morphological changes within the Hadar Australopithecus afarensis lineage and a significant increase in more arid-adapted bovid taxa. Increased aridity in East Africa during this period is also indicated by peaks in eolian dust in the marine core record. Conversely| the dominant lacustrine phase at Hadar ca. 3.3 Ma coincides with the least variable period in several climate proxy records| including marine core foraminifera delta O-18 values and eolian dust concentration. This phase is also coeval with low insolation variability and a very distinct and significant long-term period of low dust percentage in circum-Africa marine cores. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1571,2007,2,4,Consequences of increased temperature and CO2 for phytoplankton community structure in the Bering Sea,Global climate change is predicted to have large effects on the ocean that could cause shifts in current algal community structure| major nutrient cycles| and carbon export. The Bering Sea is already experiencing changes in sea surface temperature (SST)| unprecedented algal blooms| and alterations to trophic level dynamics. We incubated phytoplankton communities from 2 Bering Sea regimes under conditions of elevated SST and/or partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PCO2) similar to predicted values for 2100. In our 'greenhouse ocean' simulations| maximum biomass-normalized photosynthetic rates increased 2.6 to 3.5 times and community composition shifted away from diatoms and towards nanophytoplankton. These changes were driven largely by elevated temperature| with secondary effects from increased pCO(2). If these results are indicative of future climate responses| community shifts towards nanophytoplankton dominance could reduce the ability of the Bering Sea to maintain the productive diatom-based food webs that currently support one of the world's most productive fisheries. 1363,2007,2,4,Consequences of microclimate variation on insect pollinator visitation in two species of Chaetanthera (Asteraceae) in the central Chilean Andes,Insect pollinator activity can be influenced by biotic (e.g.| patch floral density and floral display) or by abiotic factors (e.g.| temperature| wind velocity| cloudiness). In spite of microsite| seasonal and interannual variation in temperature in the alpine zone| the consequences of local microclimatic variation on pollinator activity has been rarely studied in high mountain ecosystems. In this study we compared flower visitation rates on a north-facing slope and a west-facing slope in Chaetanthera apiculata (3|100 m of altitude) and on an east-facing slope and a west-facing slope in Chaetanthera lycopodioides (3|300 m of altitude). We studied the breeding system in each species in order to determine level of dependence on external pollinators. While the north-facing slope inhabited by C. apiculata was warmer (1.8 degrees C) and visited (7.8-fold) more frequently than the west-facing slope| in C. lycopodioides the east-facing slope was warmer (3 degrees C) and visited more frequently (4-fold) than the west-facing slope. In C. apiculata only Faunula leucoglene (Lepidoptera: Satyridae) showed higher activity in the warmer population. In C. lycopodioides| F. leucoglene and Liphantus sp. (Himenoptera:Andrenidae) showed higher activity rates in the warmer population. Flower visitation rate in Faunula leucoglene was correlated with temperature in C. apiculata and C. lycopodioides. Both C. apiculata and C. lycopodioides are partially self-compatible| and thus require exogenous pollen for maximum seed set. Our results show that in high elevation environments flower visitation rates can be highly variable and that microclimatic conditions can be more important for pollinator variation among populations than head density. Our results offer valuable insights on the potential consequences of global warming on plant pollination at high elevation. 8003,2007,5,3,Consequences of moderate similar to 25|000 yr lasting emission of light CO2 into the mid-Cretaceous ocean,Future warming is predicted to shift the Earth system into a mode with progressive increase and vigour of extreme climate events possibly stimulating other mechanisms that invigorate global warming. This study provides new data and modelling investigating climatic consequences and biogeochemical feedbacks that happened in a warmer world similar to 112 Myr ago. Our study focuses on the Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) lb and explores how the Earth system responded to a moderate similar to 25|000 yr lasting climate perturbation that is modelled to be less than 1 degrees C in global average temperature. Using a new chronological model for OAE lb we present high-resolution elemental and bulk carbon isotope records from DSDP Site 545 from Mazagan Plateau off NW Africa and combine this information with a coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. The simulations suggest that a perturbation at the onset of OAE lb caused almost instantaneous warming of the atmosphere on the order of 0.3 degrees C followed by a longer (similar to 45|000 yr) period of similar to 0.8 degrees C cooling. The marine records from DSDP Site 545 support that these moderate swings in global climate had immediate consequences for African continental supply of mineral matter and nutrients (phosphorous)| subsequent oxygen availability| and organic carbon burial in the eastern subtropical Atlantic| however| without turning the ocean anoxic. The match between modelling results and stratigraphic isotopic data support previous studies [summarized in Jenkyns| H.C.| 2003. Evidence for rapid climate change in the Mesozoic-Palaeogene greenhouse world. The Royal Society| 361: 1885-1916.] in that methane emission from marine hydrates| albeit moderate in dimension| may have been the trigger for OAE 1b| though we can not finally rule out alternative mechanisms. Following the hydrate mechanism a total of 1.15-10(18) g methane carbon (delta C-13 = - 60 parts per thousand)| equivalent to about 10% to the total modem gas hydrate inventory| generated the delta C-13(carb) profile recorded in the section. Modelling suggests a combination of moderate-scale methane pulses supplemented by continuous methane emission at elevated levels over similar to 25|000 yr. The proposed mechanism| though difficult to finally confirm in the geological past| is arguably more likely to occur in a warmer world and apparently perturbs global climate and ocean chemistry almost instantaneously. This study shows that| once set-off| this mechanism can maintain Earth's climate in a perturbed mode over geological time leading to pronounced changes in regional climate. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1542,2007,2,4,Consistency of interdecadal variation in the summer monsoon over eastern China and heterogeneity in springtime surface air temperatures,This study investigates the consistency of interdecadal variations in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and changes in the heterogeneous structure of sea/land springtime surface air temperature (SAT) over eastern China and the adjacent ocean (including the South China Sea and part of the Western Pacific Ocean). A profile of the summer mean meridional wind over eastern China for the past 40 years shows a coherent interdecadal weakening trend for the EASM. The decadal-scale (11-year running mean) summertime (June-August) wind and springtime (March-May) SAT fields are decomposed using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method. The results indicate that both the leading eigenvector of the decadal-scale meridional wind and that for the SAT over East Asia account for more than 70% of the total variance. Their time coefficients show a similar trend| with the transition from negative to positive values occurring around 1978; i.e.| the EASM turned from a stronger phase to a weaker phase around 1978. The springtime sea/land SAT distribution before and after 1978 also showed a shift in interdecadal trends. Therefore| the south-low/north-high nature of the principal component of springtime SAT over eastern China is closely related to the progressive weakening of the EASM. Our results suggest that within the context of the regional impact of global climate change| heterogeneous changes in the regional springtime sea/land SAT in eastern Asia might in part have led to a weakening of the effect of sea/land thermal driving on the EASM. 8032,2007,2,4,Constraints and reinforcement on adaptation under climate change: Selection of genetically correlated traits,Our failure to understand or predict evolutionary dynamics under climatic change precludes much conservation planning. Evolution may reduce extinction under global warming| but few studies have explored how genetic covariation| the norm for most quantitative traits| will affect the course of evolution under rapid climatic change. To draw attention to and begin to fill this gap| we draw from the population genetics literature and explore climate-driven evolution using a multi-trait model under two qualitative scenarios of climate change. Under a monotonic change in the mean environment and a change in the amplitude and frequency of a periodic environment| we show that the angle between the direction of the largest genetic covariation and the selection gradient is important in determining a population's fitness decline| or lag load. When the environment changes monotonically in the direction of the greatest covariation| the population is able to more closely track the changing environment resulting in a lower lag load. in contrast| when the environment changes in a direction of low covariation| the ability of the population to track the changing environment is lower| and the population experiences a higher lag load. In a periodic environment| populations suffer a higher lag load under increased environmental amplitude than under increased frequency. These observations suggest that populations where the angle between the largest genetic covariation and the selection gradient is large| as well as populations experiencing an increased magnitude of environmental extremes| may be vulnerable to extinctions and genetic bottlenecks and may benefit from conservation efforts that enhance the preservation of genetic diversity. To make specific predictions of evolutionary trajectories and obtain estimates of lag loads for natural populations| climatic changes have to be quantified in terms of fitness landscapes and genetic covariation among climate-related traits must be measured. We performed an extensive review of the literature and found only 24 studies that quantify covariation in traits involving climate. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1474,2007,2,4,Constructing regional scenarios for sustainable agriculture in European Russia and Ukraine for 2000 to 2070,This study estimates the consequences of climate change on cropland with and without implementation of adaptation measures| paying special attention to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We examine the possibility for regional sustainable agricultural management practice that combines both maintenance and gain in soil carbon level with profit maximization. Future scenarios of Regional Agricultural Production Systems (RAPS) were constructed for 2000-2070 based on linking the effects of global climate change| predicted change in productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops| land-use and soil database parameters. The RAPS were used to examine profitability and feasibility of alternative agricultural scenarios| based on an economic model. A number of recommendations for decision making were proposed based on an assessment of the efficiency of adaptation in animal husbandry and in the crop production sector| after analysis of current percentage of perennial grass in rotation in comparison with future economic scenarios. 1513,2007,4,4,Construction of a novel economy-climate model,An attempt has been made to construct a novel economy-climate model by combining climate change research with agricultural economy research to evaluate the influence of global climate change on grain yields. The insertion of a climate change factor into the economic C-D (Cobb-Dauglas) production function model yields a novel evaluation model| which connects the climate change factor to the economic variation factor| and the performance and reasonableness of the novel evaluation model are also preliminarily simulated and verified. 8170,2007,5,4,Contemporary richness of holarctic trees and the historical pattern of glacial retreat,The length of time land has been available for colonization by plants and other organisms could provide a partial explanation of the contemporary richness gradients of trees. According to this hypothesis| increasing times of land availability entail higher chances of recolonization| which eventually have positive effects on tree richness. To test this| we generated a dataset of the Holarctic trees and evaluated the influence of cell age| a measure of the time since an area became free of ice| on the observed tree richness gradients. We found that cell age is associated with richness in both Europe and North America| after controlling for contemporary climate patterns| suggesting that the historical pattern of glacial retreat in response to post-Pleistocene global warming has left a signal still detectable after at least 14 000 yr. The results were consistent using a range of modelling approaches or whether Europe and North America were analyzed separately or in concert. We conclude that| although secondary to contemporary climate| the post-glacial recolonization hypothesis is broadly supported at temperate latitudes.
8310,2007,2,4,Coral reefs of the Andaman Sea - An integrated perspective,The Andaman Sea lies on the eastern edge of the Indian Ocean| bordered to the west by an arc of islands stretching from northern Sumatra to the Irrawaddy delta. Fringing reefs are abundant in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands (India)| Mergui Archipelago (Myanmar)| west coasts of Thailand and Malaysia and northwest Sumatra (Indonesia). Most have never been visited by scientists because of political constraints; consequently the region is one of the least studied coral reef areas in the world. Many inshore reefs are intertidal and occur in turbid settings| while offshore reefs exist in clearer waters. Regardless of physical rigours| reefs generally display high cover and high coral diversity. The Andaman Sea has a complex geological history| a varied seafloor topography| a highly dynamic oceanography and a large tidal range (2-5 m) coupled with periodic sea-level depressions. It is also a major sink for sediments from the Irrawaddy| the world's fifth largest river in terms of suspended sediment load. Human-made influences are limited; sedimentation from land reclamation and dredging are a principal negative factor though rising sea temperatures present a major threat. Natural damage results from aerial exposure on low tides| negative sea-level anomalies| earthquakes and tsunamis. The dynamic nature of the Andaman Sea and the in-built stress resistance of many shallow water corals could result in the region being an important 'refuge' during an era of global warming. 7810,2007,2,4,Corrosion monitoring of reinforcing steel in cement mortar by EIS and ENA,Health degradation by corrosion of steel in civil engineering| especially in rough environment| is a persistent problem. Environment pollution and global warming will exacerbate this problem. The assessment of whole-life costing and residual service life prediction of structures is very important. Pitting corrosion is the most important factor which influences the service life of the reinforced concrete structures in many chloride included environments. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) method is used to study the corrosion process of reinforcing steel in cement mortar. According to the results of the experiments| dispersion and diffusing effect control the electrochemical process of carbon steel corrosion in the cement mortar. By fitting the results with EC| the parameters about CPE and Warburg impedance are calculated. The pitting corrosion behavior of reinforcing steel in cement mortar has been studied by electrochemical noise analysis (ENA) method| the wavelet transform has been employed to analyze the EN data of reinforcing steel in mortar| and the energy distribution plot (EDP) is plotted. The experimental results show that the change of EDP during the corrosion process can qualitatively reveal useful information on corrosion mechanisms. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7944,2007,3,3,Cradle-to-gate environmental assessment of enzyme products produced industrially in Denmark by Novozymes A/S,Goal| Scope and Background. Enzymes are biological catalysts with an enormous capacity to increase the speed of a huge variety biochemical reactions. Industrially produced enzymes are used in a broad variety of sectors to increase quality| speed and yield of processes| and reduce energy consumption and use of hazardous chemicals. The present paper provides a methodological framework for analysing environmental impacts of enzyme products and environmental data for five characteristic enzyme products. Methods. Life cycle assessment is used as an analytical tool and modelling of enzyme production is facilitated in SimaPro 6.0 software. Detailed data on enzyme production are derived from Novozymes' production facilities in Denmark. Data on ingredients are derived from the literature| publicly available databases and from Novozymes' suppliers. Results and Conclusions. Cradle-to-gate environmental data for five representative enzyme products produced by Novozymes in Denmark have been determined| and a basis for further assessments of more of Novozymes' enzyme products has been established. Environmental impacts induced by producing the considered enzyme products vary by a factor 10 or more depending on the impact category considered. Contributions to global warming range| for example| between one and ten kg CO2-equivalents per kg final product. The variation is explained by differences in fermentation time| formulation type| production yield and strength of the final product. The main sources of environmental impact are usually fermentation processes due to electricity and ingredient consumption. Enzyme production has been the subject of significant optimisation during the past decades by implementation of e.g. gene modified production strains| and the provided environmental data are only representative to enzyme products produced by Novozymes at the present optimisation stage. Recommendations and Perspectives. Novozymes produces more than 600 enzyme products for use in a variety of sectors| and the established framework for environmental assessment will be used for assessing more products in order to provide a broad basis for environmental comparison of enzyme assisted technologies and conventional technologies. 7743,2007,3,4,Creation of new promoters for plant's root growth: Its application for the syntheses of vulcanine and borreline| and for combating desertification at Gobi desert in inner Mongolia,Various new 2-substituted indole-3-carbaldehydes are prepared. Structurally related alkaloids| vulcanine and borreline| are synthesized as well. Among the compounds| 2-haloindole-3-carbaldehydes are found to be potent promoters of plant's root growth. Its successful preliminary application is reported for making Gobi desert in Inner Mongolia full of plant. 1435,2007,4,4,Cross-scalar satellite phenology from ground| Landsat| and MODIS data,Phenological records constructed from global mapping satellite platforms (e.g. AVHRR and MODIS) hold the potential to be valuable tools for monitoring vegetation response to global climate change. However| most satellite phenology products are not validated| and field checking coarse scale (>= 500 m) data with confidence is a difficult endeavor. In this research| we compare phenology from Landsat (field scale| 30 m) to MODIS (500 m)| and compare datasets derived from each instrument. Landsat and MODIS yield similar estimates of the start of greenness (r(2) =0.60)| although we find that a high degree of spatial phenological variability within coarser-scale MODIS pixels may be the cause of the remaining uncertainty. In addition| spatial variability is smoothed in MODIS| a potential source of error when comparing in situ or climate data to satellite phenology. We show that our method for deriving phenology from satellite data generates spatially coherent interannual phenology departures in MODIS data. We test these estimates from 2000 to 2005 against long-term records from Harvard Forest (Massachusetts) and Hubbard Brook (New Hampshire) Experimental Forests. MODIS successfully predicts 86% of the variance at Harvard forest and 70% of the variance at Hubbard Brook; the more extreme topography of the later is inferred to be a significant source of error. In both analyses| the satellite estimate is significantly dampened from the ground-based observations| suggesting systematic error (slopes of 0.56 and 0.63| respectively). The satellite data effectively estimates interannual phenology at two relatively simple deciduous forest sites and is internally consistent| even with changing spatial scale. We propose that continued analyses of interannual phenology will be an effective tool for monitoring native forest responses to global-scale climate variability. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 7900,2007,3,2,Cycle analysis of low and high H(2) utilization SOFC/gas turbine combined cycle for CO(2) recovery,A major factor in global warming is CO(2) emission from thermal power plants| which burn fossil fuels. One technology proposed to prevent global warming is CO(2) recovery from combustion flue gas and the sequestration Of CO(2) underground or near the ocean bed. Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) can produce highly concentrated CO(2)| because the reformed fuel gas reacts with oxygen electrochemically without being mixed with air in the SOFC. We therefore propose to operate multi-staged SOFCs with high utilization of reformed fuel to obtain highly concentrated CO(2). In this study| we estimated the performance of multi-staged SOFCs considering H(2) diffusion and the combined cycle efficiency of a multi-staged SOFC/gas turbine/CO(2) recovery power plant. The power generation efficiency of our CO(2) recovery combined cycle is 68.5%| whereas the efficiency of a conventional SOFC/GT cycle with the CO(2) recovery amine process is 57.8%. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7879,2007,3,4,Cycle performance study on R32/R125/R161 as an alternative refrigerant to R407C,This paper presents the new ternary non-azeotropic mixture of R32/R125/R161 as an alternative refrigerant to R407C. The physical properties of the ternary mixture are similar to those of R407C| and it is environmental friendly| that is| it has zero ozone-depletion potentials (ODP) and lower global warming potentials (GWP) than R407C. Theoretical cycle performances of R32/R125/R161 and R407C are calculated and analyzed firstly. Based on the theoretical study| experimental tests are performed on a vapor-compression refrigeration system with a rotor compressor which was originally designed for R407C (without any modifications to system components for R407C). Experimental results under different working conditions indicate that the pressure ratio and power consumption of the new refrigerant are lower than those of R407C| and its refrigerating capacity and coefficient of performance (COP) are superior to those of R407C| respectively| and its discharge temperature is slightly higher than that of R407C. Therefore| the new refrigerant R32/R125/R161 could be considered as a promising refrigerant to R407C. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8034,2007,2,4,Daily ocean monitoring since the 1860s shows record warming of northern European seas,Ocean temperatures in most parts of the world are increasing and are expected to continue to rise during the 21st century. A major challenge to ecologists and marine resource managers is to understand and predict how these global changes will affect species and ecosystems at local scales where temperature more directly affects biological responses and species interactions. Here| we investigate historical variability in regional sea surface temperature in two large heavily exploited marine ecosystems and compare these variations with expected rates of temperature change for the 21st century. We use four of the world's longest calibrated daily time series to show that trends in surface temperatures in the North and Baltic Seas now exceed those at any time since instrumented measurements began in 1861 and 1880. Temperatures in summer since 1985 have increased at nearly triple the global warming rate| which is expected to occur during the 21st century and summer temperatures have risen two to five times faster than those in other seasons. These warm temperatures and rates of change are due partly to an increase in the frequency of extremely warm years. The recent warming event is exceeding the ability of local species to adapt and is consequently leading to major changes in the structure| function and services of these ecosystems. 1575,2007,2,4,Day-to-day variation in sea-surface temperature reduces sooty tern Sterna fuscata foraging success on the Great Barrier Reef| Australia,Many seabird species threatened by global climate change are found mainly or exclusively in tropical regions. A shortage of long-term data linking climatic variation| oceanography and tropical seabird reproductive biology at both within- and between-season temporal scales means that the potential impact of climate change on these species is largely unknown. The sooty tern Sterna fuscata| an almost ubiquitous tropical seabird| has been declining on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR)| Australia| over the last 3 decades. We examined the relationship between sooty tern foraging success and sea-surface temperature (SST) at Michaelmas Cay over 2 consecutive breeding seasons. Consistent patterns were observed with significant negative relationships between day-to-day variation in SST and both the amount of food fed to chicks and the feeding frequency during the latter two-thirds of each breeding season. At the beginning of each breeding cycle| rapid changes in foraging success highlighted that other within-season mechanisms also influence sooty tern reproductive potential. Our results suggest a previously undescribed spatial and temporal link between SST and sooty tern reproduction. Combined with previous findings for the southern GBR| this suggests that SST variation can influence the foraging success of multiple tropical seabird species at a reef-wide scale and implies a significant negative effect of forecasted climatic changes on seabirds breeding on the GBR. 1569,2007,3,3,Daytime| temporal| and seasonal variations of N2O emissions in an upland cropping system of the humid tropics,Nitrous oxide (N2O) contributes to global climate change| and its emission from soil-crop systems depend on soil| environmental| and anthropogenic factors. Thus| we evaluated the variability of N2O emissions measured by microchambers (cross section: 184 cm(2)) from a groundnut-fallow-maize-fallow cropping system of the humid tropics. The crops received inorganic nitrogen (N) plus crop residues (NC)| inorganic N alone as ammonium sulfate (RN)| and half of the inorganic N along with crop residues and chicken manure (N1/2CM)| amounting for the crop rotation to 322| 180| and 400 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)| respectively. The N2O fluxes during the groundnut-maize crop rotation were log-normally distributed| and the frequency distributions were positively skewed. Daytime changes in N2O fluxes were inconsistent| and the 50% of total N2O emission during the 12 h measurement periods was attained earlier under maize (-11 : 00 h) than groundnut covers (- 13: 00 h). Spatial variability in each treatment with eight gas chambers was large but smaller during the cropping periods than the fallow| indicating masking efficiency of crop covers for the soil heterogeneity that was accelerated presumably by antecedent climatic variables. The temporal variability of N2O emissions was also large (coefficients of variation| CV| ranged from 60 to 81%)| involving both input differences between treatments and measurement periods. As such| the relative deviation from the annual mean of total N2O emission was high during the period after a large N application with a maximum of +480%| due to addition of chicken manure. The seasonal contribution of summer and monsoon to N2O emissions was insignificant. However| intensive rainfall negatively (-0.65**) and the amount of added N from either source positively (0.83***) correlated with the integrated N2O emissions| and those were exponential. Results suggest that around noon (12: 00 h) gas collection could represent well the daily N2O fluxes| increasing the number or size of the gas chambers could minimize the large variability| and mainly the rainfall and N inputs regulated its emissions in the humid tropics of Malaysia. 1367,2007,2,4,Decadal changes in turbid-water coral communities at Pandora Reef: loss of resilience or too soon to tell?,Coral communities were monitored at Pandora Reef| nearshore Great Barrier Reef from 1981 to 2005 using photography and videography. In the 1980s| regional elevation of land-based nutrients in coastal waters (ca. 2-6 times pre-European levels of early 1800s) did not prevent overall recovery of coral cover and diversity following a sequence of environmental disturbances in the 1970s. However| prospects for a repeat of such resilience following catastrophic mortality from high-temperature bleaching in 1998 and a cyclone in 2000 are not clear. Different coral communities around the reef varied greatly in relation to impacts and recovery. Fore-reef communities dominated by acroporids (fast growing branching and tabular Acropora and foliose Montipora) recovered strongly in the 1980s following apparently severe impacts by cyclone| flood and heat wave disturbances in the 1970s| attaining 60-90% cover by stabilizing rubble and outgrowing macro-algae in < 10 years. In the back-reef| by contrast| poritid-dominated communities (massive and finger Porites and columnar Goniopora and Alveopora) had more stable trajectories and smaller impact from recent disturbances: recovery was well underway in 2005. The contrasting trajectories of different parts of the reef reflect differential survival of more persistent versus more ephemeral taxa| notably poritids and acroporids| respectively| both major contributors to framework and cover on reefs globally. A repeat of earlier resilience appears possible in the shallow fore-reef| but unlikely in the deeper fore-reef| which had few viable fragments or recruits in 2005. The main limits on recovery may be (1) reduced supply of coral larvae due to widespread regional losses of coral brood stock and (2) the reduced intervals between disturbances associated with global climate change. The presence of a high abundance of Acroporidae is a major pre-disposing risk factor for climate change impacts. 8069,2007,2,2,Decadal co-variability of the summer surface air teimperature and soil moisture in China under global warming,The self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is calculated using newly updated ground observations of monthly surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation in China. The co-variabilities of PDS|I and SAT aro examined for summer for the period 1961-2004. The results show that there exist decadal climate co-variabilities and strong nonlinear interactions between SAT and soil moisture in many regions of China. Some of the co-variabilities can be linked to global warming. In summer| significant decadal co-variabilities from cool-wet to warm-dry conditions are found in the east region of Northwest China| North China| and Northeast China. An important finding is that in the west region of Norlthwest China and Southeast China| pronounced decadal co-variabilities take place from warm-dry to cool-wet conditions. Because significant warming was observed over most areas of the global land surface during the past 20-30 years| the shift to cool-wet conditions is a unique phenomenon which may deserve much scientific attention. The nonlinear interactions between SAT and soil moisture may partly account for the observed decadal co-variabilities. It is shown that anomalies of SAT will greatly affect the climatic co-variabilities| and changes of SAT may bring notable influence on the PDSI in China. These results provide observational evidence for increasing risks of decadal drought and wetness as anthropegenic global warming progresses. 1487,2007,5,4,Decade-centenary resolution records of climate changes in East Siberia from elements in the bottom sediments of lake Baikal for the last 150 kyr,High-resolution scanning Synchrotron Radiation X-ray Fluorescence Analysis (SRXFA) was applied to investigate the downcore distribution of elements in the sediments from Lake Baikal (East Siberia). The obtained multi-element time series reveal the presence of abrupt climate shifts in East Siberia which were synchronous with the abrupt warming events in the North Atlantic and Greenland (Dansgaard-Oeschges events (D/O) during the last ice age 24-75 kyr BP. We show here the set of climatic indicators reveals all globally known climate changes from dry and cool or glacial climates to humid and warm ones| which were recorded in Northern Atlantic and East Siberia both on the orbital and millennial time scales during the last 150 kyr. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8202,2007,2,4,Delayed upwelling alters nearshore coastal ocean ecosystems in the northern California current,Wind-driven coastal ocean upwelling supplies nutrients to the euphotic zone near the coast. Nutrients fuel the growth of phytoplankton| the base of a very productive coastal marine ecosystem [Pauly D| Christensen V (1995) Nature 374:255-257]. Because nutrient supply and phytoplankton biomass in shelf waters are highly sensitive to variation in upwelling-driven circulation| shifts in the timing and strength of upwelling may alter basic nutrient and carbon fluxes through marine food webs. We show how a 1-month delay in the 2005 spring transition to upwelling-favorable wind stress in the northern California Current Large Marine Ecosystem resulted in numerous anomalies: warm water| low nutrient levels| low primary productivity| and an unprecedented low recruitment of rocky intertidal organisms. The delay was associated with 20- to 40-day wind oscillations accompanying a southward shift of the jet stream. Early in the upwelling season (May-July) off Oregon| the cumulative upwelling-favorable wind stress was the lowest in 20 years| nearshore surface waters averaged 2 degrees C warmer than normal| surf-zone chlorophyll-a and nutrients were 50% and 30% less than normal| respectively| and densities of recruits of mussels and barnacles were reduced by 83% and 66%| respectively. Delayed early-season upwelling and stronger late-season upwelling are consistent with predictions of the influence of global warming on coastal upwelling regions. 8194,2007,2,4,Dendroclimatic analysis of Betula ermanii forests at their upper limit of distribution in Changbai Mountain| Northeast China,In order to detect the effects of climate change on Erman's birch (Betula ermanii Charm.)| we examined radial growth-climate relationships of Erman's birch forests at their upper limit of distribution in Changbai Mountain| Northeast China. Thirty Erman's birch trees from six stands were sampled at an elevation of about 1950 m a.s.l. Correlation and response function coefficients indicated that radial growth of Erman's birch was positively influenced by previous August| October and current February temperature| and previous winter| and current March| June and September precipitation. In addition| radial growth showed a negative relationship to previous August and current June sunshine ratio. Precipitation and temperatures in annualization periods also positively affected the radial growth of Erman's birch. Regression analyses indicated that precipitation explained more variation in radial growth than minimum temperature. Together| these results suggested that climate affected radial growth of Erman's birch through altering soil water availability. Therefore| the radial growth of Erman's birch at the tree line in Changbai Mountain could not be predicted by temperature alone even under a scenario of global warming. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1508,2007,2,4,Depth-mediated reversal of the effects of climate change on long-term growth rates of exploited marine fish,The oceanographic consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented| but the biological impacts of this change on marine species much less so| in large part because of few long-term data sets. Using otolith analysis| we reconstructed historical changes in annual growth rates for the juveniles of eight long-lived fish species in the southwest Pacific| from as early as 1861. Six of the eight species show significant changes in growth rates during the last century| with the pattern differing systematically with depth. Increasing temperatures near the ocean surface correlate with increasing growth rates by species found in depths < 250 m| whereas growth rates of deep-water I(> 1|000 m) species have declined substantially during the last century| which correlates with evidence of long-term cooling at these depths. The observations suggest that global climate change has enhanced some elements of productivity of the shallow-water stocks but also has reduced the productivity| and possibly the resilience| of the already slow-growing deep-water species. 7863,2007,2,4,Destruction and regeneration of terrestrial| littoral and marine ecosystems on the Island of Guanaja/Honduras seven years after Hurricane Mitch,Hurricane Mitch is considered as one of the strongest Atlantic storms of the past century. Due to its extraordinary quasi-stationary position over three days (27. 10. by 29.10.1998) offshore between the northern coast of Honduras and the Island of Guanaja| this area was struck most violently. The stud)| deals with the degree of destruction| the impacts (negative ones as well as positive ones) and the locally different trajectories of regeneration seven years after the disturbance event for the three most important ecosystems on Guanaja: pine forests| mangroves and coral reefs. As a consequence of global warming an increase of hurricane frequency and intensity is predicted by some climate models for the Caribbean| making a better understanding of hurricane effects on these sensitive ecosystems of particular interest. 8287,2007,2,4,Determinants of terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance inferred from European eddy covariance flux sites,Pioneering work in the last century has resulted in a widely accepted paradigm that primary production is strongly positively related to temperature and water availability such that the northern hemispheric forest carbon sink may increase under conditions of global warming. However| the terrestrial carbon sink at the ecosystem level (i.e. net ecosystem productivity| NEP) depends on the net balance between gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration ( TER). Through an analysis of European eddy covariance flux data sets| we find that the common climate relationships for primary production do not hold for NEP. This is explained by the fact that decreases in GPP are largely compensated by parallel decreases in TER when climatic factors become more limiting. Moreover| we found overall that water availability was a significant modulator of NEP| while the multivariate effect of mean annual temperature is small and not significant. These results indicate that climate- and particularly temperature-based projections of net carbon balance may be misleading. Future research should focus on interactions between the water and carbon cycles and the effects of disturbances on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. 8313,2007,2,4,Development and poverty: A symbiotic relationship and its implication in Africa,Poverty is present everywhere but the kind in Africa is of great magnitude both in its spread and destitutive dimension. In other places any manifestation of poverty is a challenge to move forward but in Africa| the reverse is the case. Therefore the continent and international community are not happy about it| hence various programmes and strategies were put in place. Ironically there is little to show for it. For instance| about ten years before the end of millennium| the common slogan in Africa was 'water for all| food for all| education for all| health for all and so on by the year 2000'. The 'miracle' year 2000 has come and gone and water| food| education and health are not enjoyed by many citizens of the continent. Development is still illusive. In this paper I examine the issues of poverty and development in the context of deforestation/biodiversity a consequent effect of global warming being one of the major threats to humanity. Some questions are raised with a view to proffer recommendations that may move the continent forward. These are: What are the roots of poverty in Africa? Why should there be a symbiotic relationship between poverty and development in Africa? Can Africa really develop?. 7812,2007,3,3,Development of a new type of electric off-road vehicle powered by microwaves transmitted through air,Needless to say| we are now facing a critical state in the global environment| i.e. global warming. We have to change our way of thinking and our economic systems from those dependent on fossil resources to those dependent on renewable energy resources| such as solar energy. In our field of research| electric vehicles are considered the best choice for reducing carbon dioxide emissions. A battery is not an adequate energy source for electric vehicles| because batteries quickly get depleted because of its low energy and power density. A fuel cell is a more favorable alternative to the battery; however| it has large mass and can only replace the internal combustion engine| but the power transmission mechanisms are still necessary. The new concept of an electric off-road vehicle proposed here is entirely different from those mentioned above. The vehicle has neither a combustion engine nor a battery but only electric motors. Energy to drive the motors is transmitted through air as microwaves at 2.45 GHz. This technology was developed at the Research Institute for Sustainable Humanosphere| Kyoto University| as a method for transmitting electricity from a large-scale solar power station (SPS) orbiting in space to the Earth. We have constructed some models of electric off-road vehicles and investigated their adoptability to microwave power transmission. In this paper| some experimental results on the use of microwave power transmission for powering the vehicles are presented| and some problems such as low energy transmission efficiency are also discussed. (C) 2007 ISTVS. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8302,2007,2,4,Did the northern range of distribution of two tropical orthopterans (insecta) change recently?,Many thermophilous species are predicted to shift their ranges to higher latitudes and altitudes in response to climate warming. The range trend was analysed for two orthopteran species Ruspolia nitidula (Scopoli| 1786) and Aiolopus thalassinus (Fabricius| 1781) of tropical origin at their northern limits. Their northern range seems to have been stable for more than 100 years irrespective that they are good fliers and in spite of a rapid increase of records within their northern range supported by hard data. In 2000-2006| the authors found R. nitidula on 87 localities (only 19 had been known before 2000) and A. thalassinus on 35 localities (9 before 2000) in Slovakia. The authors consider that this increase of records is more due to intensified mapping| and it does not support the hypothesis that the global warming affects the spreading of the species. For both these endangered thermo-hygrophilous species| habitat choice| population dynamics| phenology| threats and conservation aspects were analysed and discussed in the context of their main ranges. 7890,2007,2,4,Diets of Overwintering Caribou| Rangifer tarandus| Track Decadal Changes in Arctic Tundra Vegetation,We compared winter diets of Western Arctic Herd Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) from 1995/1996 and 2005 using microhistological fecal analysis on samples collected at paired permanent vegetation transects. Changes in the diets of Caribou followed the same trends as vegetative changes documented in long-term studies in northwestern Alaska. Lichens were significantly less prevalent oil the landscape and in the winter diets of Caribou between 1995/1996 and 2005| while graminoids (grasses and sedges) were significantly more prevalent| Dramatic changes are forecasted for Arctic ecosystems under global warming scenarios which may continue the trend of declining lichens in northwestern Alaska and-in-the diet of Western Arctic Herd Caribou. The question of whether or not the altered diet will affect the population dynamics of this herd remains unresolved. 8364,2007,5,4,Differential effects of past climate warming on mountain and flatland species distributions: a multispecies North American mammal assessment,Aim The magnitude of predicted range shifts during climate change is likely to be different for species living in mountainous environments compared with those living in flatland environments. The southern edges of ranges in mountain species may not shift northwards during warming as populations instead migrate up available elevational gradients; overall latitudinal range appears therefore to expand. In contrast| flatland species should shift range centroids northwards but not expand or contract their latitudinal range extent. These hypotheses were tested utilizing Late Pleistocene and modern occurrence data. Location North America. Methods The location and elevation of modern and Late Pleistocene species occurrences were collected from data bases for 26 species living in mountain or flatland environments. Regressions of elevation change over latitude| and southern and northern range edges were calculated for each species for modern and fossil data sets. A combination of regressions and ANOVAS were used to test whether flatland species shift range edges and latitudinal extents more than mountain species do. Results Flatland species had significantly larger northward shifts at southern range edges than did mountain-dwelling species from the Late Pleistocene to the present. There was also a significant negative correlation between the amount of change in the latitude of the southern edge of the range and the amount of elevational shifting from the Late Pleistocene to the present. Although significant| only c. 25% of the variance could be explained by this relationship. In addition| there was a weak indication that overall range expansion was less in flatland-dwelling than in mountain-dwelling species. Main Conclusions The approach used here was to examine past species' range responses to warming that occurred after the last ice ages as a means to better predict potential future responses to continued warming. The results confirm predictions of differential southern edge and overall range shifts for species occupying mountain and flatland regions in North America. The findings may be broadly applicable in other regions| thus allowing better modelling of future range and distribution related responses. 7763,2007,2,4,Differing effects of thermal stress on coral fertilization and early embryogenesis in four Indo Pacific species,Coral reefs are expected to be severely impacted by rising seawater temperatures associated with climate change. The fertilization and early embryogenesis of four reef-building coral species representing three Indo-Pacific families were examined in a series of laboratory experiments where temperatures were increased up to 5-6 degrees C at ambient. High levels of fertilization and normal ernbryogenesis were observed for Favites abdita. Favites chinensis and Mycedium elephantotus at temperatures to 32 degrees C (+5 degrees C) and embryos developed normally until the 5th cell cleavage. Acropora millepora was the only species to be affected by higher temperatures| exhibiting significantly reduced fertilization and a higher frequency of embryonic abnormalities at 32 degrees C (+4 degrees C)| and fertilization ceased altogether at 34 degrees C (+6 degrees C). Early cell cleavage rates increased with temperature up to 32 degrees C for all species. 7840,2007,4,3,Discriminating robust and non-robust atmospheric circulation responses to global warming,The robustness of the atmospheric circulation response to global warming in a set of atmospheric general circulation models ( AGCMs) is investigated. The global-warmed climate is forced by a global pattern of warmed ocean surface temperatures that is extracted from a multi-model ensemble of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model greenhouse warming simulations. The robustness of the warming response is evaluated by a hierarchical set of comparisons. The warming response is compared first between two independently developed AGCMs| then as a function of horizontal resolution in one model| and finally as a function of a single tuning parameter| related to orographic gravity wave drag. Across these levels of comparison| the tropical and subtropical response is generally robust in zonal wind and temperature| but the extratropical response is non-robust. On regional scales| almost every aspect of the response is non-robust| even to the variation of a single tuning parameter. Some evidence is presented that the non-robustness of the simulated response to global warming might be predicted from the ( non global-warmed) control simulation. 8121,2007,2,4,Distribution range shift of two allied species| Nezara viridula and N-antennata (Hemiptera : Pentatomidae)| in Japan| possibly due to global warming,Intensive and successive field surveys on the relative abundance of Nezara viridula (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) and N. antennata at various localities in northern Kyushu| Japan| together with scattered collection records of N. viridula in Kyushu and Honshu| clearly showed that N. viridula has been expanding its range northward since the 1960s. The present range of N. viridula in Kyushu coincided well with the areas where the mean temperature of the coldest month exceeds 5 degrees C that has been suggested to be the lowest thermal limit for N. viridula to overwinter successfully. The future range of N. viridula is predicted to cover a large area of Kyushu if the temperature rises by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C by 2100. In some places| N. antennata seemed to have been replaced by N. viridula as a result of their interspecific mating that prevented N. antennata from intraspecific mating. This is because N. antennata was overwhelmed| in abundance| by N. viridula| which has a higher reproductive potential than N. antennata under warm conditions with a sufficient amount of food resources. Conversely| N. antennata populations recovered in a few places where N. viridula had replaced N. antennata in the 1950s| probably due to the shortage of rice plants on which N. viridula preferably reproduces. 1537,2007,2,4,Diurnal temperature range and daily mortality in Shanghai| China,Although the relationship between temperature level and mortality outcomes has been well established| it is still unknown whether within-day variation in temperature| e.g. diurnal temperature range (DTR)| is a risk factor for death independent of the corresponding temperature. Moreover| DTR is a meteorological indicator associated with global climate change which may be related to a variety of health outcomes. We hypothesized that large diurnal temperature change might be a source of additional environmental stress and therefore a risk factor for death. We used daily weather and mortality data from Shanghai| China to test this hypothesis. We conducted a time-series study to examine the association between DTR and mortality outcomes from 2001 to 2004. A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) was used to assess the acute effect of DTR on mortality after controlling for covariates including time trend| day of the week (DOW)| temperature| humidity| and outdoor air pollution. We found a strong association between DTR and daily mortality after adjustment for those potential confounders. A 1 degrees C increment of the 3-day moving average of DTR corresponded to a 1.37% (95% Cl 1.08-1.65%) increase in total non-accidental mortality| a 1.86% (95% CI 1.40-2.32%) increase in cardiovascular mortality| and a 1.29% (95% Cl 0.49-2.09%) increase in respiratory mortality. The effects of DTR on total non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality were significant on both "cold" (below 23 degrees C) and "warm" (at least 23 degrees C) days| although respiratory mortality was only significantly associated with DTR on "cold" days. This study suggests within-day variation in temperature may be a novel risk factor for death. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 8289,2007,2,4,Divergence of reproductive phenology under climate warming,Because the flowering and fruiting phenology of plants is sensitive to environmental cues such as temperature and moisture| climate change is likely to alter community-level patterns of reproductive phenology. Here we report a previously unreported phenomenon: experimental warming advanced flowering and fruiting phenology for species that began to flower before the peak of summer heat but delayed reproduction in species that started flowering after the peak temperature in a tallgrass prairie in North America. The warming-induced divergence of flowering and fruiting toward the two ends of the growing season resulted in a gap in the staggered progression of flowering and fruiting in the community during the middle of the season. A double precipitation treatment did not significantly affect flowering and fruiting phenology. Variation among species in the direction and magnitude of their response to warming caused compression and expansion of the reproductive periods of different species| changed the amount of overlap between the reproductive phases| and created possibilities for an altered selective environment to reshape communities in a future warmed world. 8221,2007,5,4,Diversity partitioning of a Late Ordovician marine biotic invasion: controls on diversity in regional ecosystems,Biotic invasions are a common feature of the fossil record| yet remarkably little is known about them| given their enormous potential to reveal the processes that regulate local and regional diversity over long time scales. We used additive diversity partitioning to examine how diversity structure changed as a result of a marine biotic invasion in tropical| shallow and deep subtidal environments spanning approximately 4 Myr in the Late Ordovician. The biotic invasion increased richness in the regional ecosystem by nearly 40%. Within-habitat turnover diversity accounts for most of the increase in richness| with between-habitat turnover diversity contributing a lesser amount. Increases in these components of diversity were accommodated by increased packing of species along a depth gradient and increased habitat heterogeneity. Diversity metrics that incorporate taxon abundance (Shannon information| Simpson's D) show similar patterns and reveal that many invading taxa were locally abundant and widespread in their occurrence. Extinction of incumbent taxa did not foster the invasion; rather the invasion appears to be linked to a regional or global warming event. Taken together| these observations indicate that these Late Ordovician marine communities were open to invasion and not saturated with species. Moreover| the increase in species diversity caused by the invasion was not ephemeral; instead it lasted for at least 1 Myr. Similar studies of other biotic invasions in the fossil record are necessary to determine (1) the factors| such as extinction of incumbents or resource limitation| that may facilitate or inhibit invasion in ancient ecosystems; (2) how local and regional ecosystems respond to invasion; and (3) the extent to which biotic invasions play a substantial role in ecosystem change through geologic time.
7774,2007,2,4,Do distributional shifts of northern and southern species of algae match the warming pattern?,Well-documented changes in species abundances and distributions coinciding with global warming have been increasing during recent years. A trend of raising sea-surface temperature has also been observed along the Portuguese coast which could affect intertidal species' ranges. The present study aimed at evaluating the direction and intensity of distribution changes of macroalgae in the area. The last 50-year trend of coastal air and sea temperature was reassessed| providing an accurate estimate of the warming process. Information on species' range shifts was obtained by comparing data from recent resurveys with historical records of algal distributions collected during the 1950s and 1960s. Although a prevalence of northward migrations was anticipated| this work showed a marked difference in the average direction of changes between cold- and warm-water species. Cold-water species| when considered together| showed no particular shifting trend| because the number of species that shifted north or south was the same. Contrarily| all shifting warm-water species expanded their range northwards. Therefore| generalizations about poleward range shifts due to increasing temperature should be made with caution. 1548,2007,2,4,Do elevated temperature and CO2 generally have counteracting effects on phenolic phytochemistry of boreal trees?,Global climate change includes concomitant changes in many components of the abiotic flux necessary for plant life. In this paper| we investigate the combined effects of elevated CO2 (720 ppm) and temperature (+2 K) on the phytochemistry of three deciduous tree species. The analysis revealed that elevated CO2 generally stimulated increased carbon partitioning to various classes of phenolic compounds| whereas an increase in temperature had the opposite effect. The combined effects of both elevated CO2 and temperature were additive| i.e.| canceling one another's individual effects. Obviously| the effects of global climate change on leaf chemistry must simultaneously consider both temperature and CO2. If these results are generally applicable| then the counteracting effect of the temperature is likely to play a major role in alpine| boreal| and arctic zones in determining the balance between populations of plants and herbivores. 8333,2007,4,5,Does a global temperature exist?,Physical| mathematical| and observational grounds are employed to show that there is no physically meaningful global temperature for the Earth in the context of the issue of global warming. While it is always possible to construct statistics for any given set of local temperature data| an infinite range of such statistics is mathematically permissible if physical principles provide no explicit basis for choosing among them. Distinct and equally valid statistical rules can and do show opposite trends when applied to the results of computations from physical models and real data in the atmosphere. A given temperature field can be interpreted as both "warming" and "cooling" simultaneously| making the concept of warming in the context of the issue of global warming physically ill-posed. 1559,2007,4,4,Does the El Nino-Southern Oscillation control the interhemispheric radiocarbon offset?,Since the 1970s it has been recognised that Southern Hemisphere samples have a lower radiocarbon content than contemporaneous material in the Northern Hemisphere. This interhemispheric radiocarbon offset has traditionally been considered to be the result of a greater surface area in the southern ocean and high-latitude deepwater formation. This is despite the fact that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to play a significant role in controlling the interannual variability of atmospheric carbon dioxide by changing the flux of 'old' CO(2) from the tropical Pacific. Here we demonstrate that over the past millennium| the Southern Hemisphere radiocarbon offset is characterised by a pervasive 80-yr cycle with a step shift in mean values coinciding with the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. The observed changes suggest an ENSO-like role in influencing the mterhemispheric radiocarbon difference| most probably modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation| and supports a tropical role in forcing centennial-scale global climate change. (c) 2006 University of Washington. All rights reserved. 1468,2007,5,4,Dominant factors controlling glacial and interglacial variations in the treeline elevation in tropical Africa,The knowledge of tropical palaeoclimates is crucial for understanding global climate change| because it is a test bench for general circulation models that are ultimately used to predict future global warming. A longstanding issue concerning the last glacial maximum in the tropics is the discrepancy between the decrease in sea-surface temperatures reconstructed from marine proxies and the high-elevation decrease in land temperatures estimated from indicators of treeline elevation. In this study| an improved inverse vegetation modeling approach is used to quantitatively reconstruct palaeoclimate and to estimate the effects of different factors (temperature| precipitation| and atmospheric CO2 concentration) on changes in treeline elevation based on a set of pollen data covering an altitudinal range from 100 to 3|140 m above sea level in Africa. We show that lowering of the African treeline during the last glacial maximum was primarily triggered by regional drying| especially at upper elevations| and was amplified by decreases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and perhaps temperature. This contrasts with scenarios for the Holocene and future climates| in which the increase in treeline elevation will be dominated by temperature. Our results suggest that previous temperature changes inferred from tropical treeline shifts may have been overestimated for low-CO2 glacial periods| because the limiting factors that control changes in treeline elevation differ between glacial and interglacial periods. 1416,2007,2,4,Drought effects on large fire activity in Canadian and Alaskan forests,Fire is the dominant disturbance in forest ecosystems across Canada and Alaska| and has important implications for forest ecosystems| terrestrial carbon dioxide emissions and the forestry industry. Large fire activity had increased in Canadian and Alaskan forests during the last four decades of the 20th century. Here we combined the Palmer Drought Severity Index and historical large fire databases to demonstrate that Canada and Alaska forest regions experienced summer drying over this time period| and drought during the fire season significantly affected forest fire activity in these regions. Climatic warming| positive geopotential height anomalies and ocean circulation patterns were spatially and temporally convolved in causing drought conditions| which in turn enhanced fuel flammability and thereby indirectly affected fire activity. Future fire regimes will likely depend on drought patterns under global climate change scenarios. 1491,2007,2,4,Drought sensitivity shapes species distribution patterns in tropical forests,Although patterns of tree species distributions along environmental gradients have been amply documented in tropical forests(1-7)| mechanisms causing these patterns are seldom known. Efforts to evaluate proposed mechanisms have been hampered by a lack of comparative data on species' reactions to relevant axes of environmental variation(1). Here we show that differential drought sensitivity shapes plant distributions in tropical forests at both regional and local scales. Our analyses are based on experimental field assessments of drought sensitivity of 48 species of trees and shrubs| and on their local and regional distributions within a network of 122 inventory sites spanning a rainfall gradient across the Isthmus of Panama. Our results suggest that niche differentiation with respect to soil water availability is a direct determinant of both local- and regional-scale distributions of tropical trees. Changes in soil moisture availability caused by global climate change and forest fragmentation are therefore likely to alter tropical species distributions| community composition and diversity. 7751,2007,3,4,Dynamic skin cooling with an environmentally compatible alternative cryogen during laser surgery,Background and Objectives: Cryogen spray cooling with tetrafluoroethane (R134a) has been used to enhance epidermal protection during dermatologic laser surgery. However| R134a has a very high global warming potential (GENT 1300). Our objective was to evaluate the cooling effectiveness of an alternative cryogen with a much lower GWT| namely liquid carbon dioxide (CO2| GWP = 1). Study Design/Materials and Methods: A thin-film thermocouple deposited on an epoxy skin phantom was used to measure surface temperature (T-s variations induced by R134a or CO2 sprays. The temperature distribution in the skin phantom was estimated using T| and Duhamel's method. Impact pressure and noise level of both cryogen sprays were measured with a dynamic sensor and sound meter| respectively. Consumption of both cryogens was also evaluated. Results: For R134a sprays| T-s was kept almost constant after 15 milliseconds. For CO2 sprays| T| decreased continuously during the entire spurt of 50 milliseconds. The minimum T| induced by the CO2 sprays was lower than that induced by R134a when the spurt duration was longer than 35 milliseconds. Numerical simulation shows that CO| sprays were able to induce very similar temperature reductions in the skin phantom as compared to R134a sprays when the spurt duration and delay time were selected appropriately. R134a sprays induced an impact pressure of 3.6 kPa| as compared to 43.1 kPa for CO2 sprays. The maximum noise level for R134a sprays was 109 dBA as compared to 135 dBA for the CO2 sprays. The R134a consumption for a 50 milliseconds spurt is 67 mg as compared to 225 mg for a CO2 spurt of the same duration. Conclusions: CO2 sprays are expected to have similar skin cooling efficacy as R134a sprays. Although the CO2 consumption is higher than R134a| its contribution to global warming is still much less than R134a. The effects of varying spurt durations on in vivo human skin and the impact on cutaneous blood flow require further investigation. 7932,2007,4,2,Dynamical greenhouse-plus feedback and polar warming amplification. Part II: meridional and vertical asymmetries of the global warming,This paper examines several prominent thermodynamic and dynamic factors responsible for the meridional and vertical warming asymmetries using a moist coupled atmosphere-surface radiative transportive four-box climate model. A coupled atmosphere-surface feedback analysis is formulated to isolate the direct response to an anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing from individual local feedbacks (water vapor| evaporation| surface sensible heat flux| and ice-albedo)| and from the non-local dynamical feedback. Both the direct response and response to water vapor feedback are stronger in low latitudes. The joint effect of the ice-albedo and dynamical greenhouse-plus feedbacks acts to amplify the high latitude surface warming whereas both the evaporation and dynamical greenhouse-minus feedbacks cause a reduction of the surface warming in low latitudes. The enhancement (reduction) of local feedbacks in high (low) latitudes in response to the non-local dynamic feedback further strengthens the polar amplification of the surface warming. Both the direct response and response to water vapor feedback lead to an increase of lapse rate in both low and high latitudes. The stronger total dynamic heating in the mean state in high latitudes is responsible for a larger increase of lapse rate in high latitudes in the direct response and response to water vapor feedback. The local evaporation and surface sensible heat flux feedbacks reduce the lapse rate both in low and high latitudes through cooling the surface and warming the atmosphere. The much stronger evaporation feedback leads to a final warming in low latitudes that is stronger in the atmosphere than the surface. 8253,2007,2,4,Early onset of vegetation growth vs. rapid green-up: Impacts on juvenile mountain ungulates,Seasonal patterns of climate and vegetation growth are expected to be altered by global warming. In alpine environments| the reproduction of birds and mammals is tightly linked to seasonality; therefore such alterations may have strong repercussions on recruitment. We used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)| a satellite-based measurement that correlates strongly with aboveground net primary productivity| to explore how annual variations in the timing of vegetation onset and in the rate of change in primary production during green-up affected juvenile growth and survival of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis)| Alpine ibex (Capra ibex)| and mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in four different populations in two continents. We indexed timing of onset of vegetation growth by the integrated NDVI (INDVI) in May. The rate of change in primary production during green-up ( early May to early July) was estimated as ( 1) the maximal slope between any two successive bimonthly NDVI values during this period and ( 2) the slope in NDVI between early May and early July. The maximal slope in NDVI was negatively correlated with lamb growth and survival in both populations of bighorn sheep| growth of mountain goat kids| and survival of Alpine ibex kids| but not with survival of mountain goat kids. There was no effect of INDVI in May and of the slope in NDVI between early May and early July on juvenile growth and survival for any species. Although rapid changes in NDVI during the green-up period could translate into higher plant productivity| they may also lead to a shorter period of availability of high-quality forage over a large spatial scale| decreasing the opportunity for mountain ungulates to exploit high-quality forage. Our results suggest that attempts to forecast how warmer winters and springs will affect animal population dynamics and life histories in alpine environments should consider factors influencing the rate of changes in primary production during green-up and the timing of vegetation onset. 7950,2007,2,4,East Asian Precipitation Increase under the Global Warming,The East Asian rainfall response to global warming is investigated by a transient greenhouse increase integration with a state-of-the-art coupled global general circulation model. Two seasons are focused: spring and summer| in which the East Asian rainfall is the heaviest. At first| we examine the ability of the model in reproducing the observed relationship between the anomalies of rainfall and large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with interannual variability| by using a 1000-yr control integration of the model. Then we document the changes in East Asian rainfall and associated circulation/specific humidity response to global warming| and find rainfall increase is accompanied by anomalous southerly and more moisture over the coastal East Asia. The good simulation of mean climate and the reproducibility of the relationship between precipitation and circulation associated with interannual variability over East Asia by the model give more credibility for regional climate change signals. 7974,2007,3,4,Eco-balance analysis of six agricultural land uses in the Ikushunbetsu watershed,This study quantified and evaluated the greenhouse gas emissions of farmland soils at a watershed scale using parameters available at a regional scale. The estimation was based on field monitoring data in the Ikushunbetsu River Watershed| Hokkaido| Japan. Simple regression models were created for carbon dioxide| nitrous oxide and methane emissions associated with six major agricultural land uses| and forest as an alternative land use to farmland. An eco-balance method involves conducting an analysis on the basis of farmland surplus nitrogen (N) and global warming potential (GWP). Uncertainties associating the estimations were estimated using Mote Carlo simulation. The eco-balance is the analysis of the relationship between production and environmental load. In this study| production and environmental load were compared by changing each of the land use combinations by 10%. Farmland surplus N was lowest for soybean with 8.2 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)| followed by paddy rice. The highest value was recorded for vegetables with 99.8 kg N ha(-1) year(-1). The weighted mean of total farmland based on the land use proportion was 44 +/- 33.8 kg N ha-1 year(-1). The calculated GWP was 7.3 Mg CO2 eq ha(-1) year(-1) for paddy rice and 0.1 to 6.8 Mg CO2 eq ha(-1) year(-1) for upland crops. The weighted mean of the total farmland area was 4.0 +/- 3.4 Mg CO2 eq ha(-1) year(-1). The eco-balance analysis showed that there were 59 combinations out of 8008 combinations able to reduce GWP more than 6%| but less than 7%| than the value in 2005. Among them| in 30 combinations| farmland surplus N became less than the value in 2005; production was reduced compared with the value in 2005 in 27 combinations. Soybean occupied 20-80% in the seven combinations where production was increased compared with 2005| while keeping farmland surplus N below the value in 2005. The estimation of greenhouse gases in this study exhibited high uncertainty because of variability in management and errors in evaluation procedures. Quantification of the data variability is set at maximum| which comprises the measured values in this area. Based on the quantification of the uncertainty| more efficient quantification methods can be established to clarify mitigation potential. This type of quantification and comparison between production and emission enables decision makers to set some threshold values that allow a compromise between production and environmental load. 8181,2007,3,4,Economic evaluation of the geological storage of CO(2) considering the scale of economy,CO(2) capture and storage (CCS) technology is expected to play an important role in the efforts directed toward long-term CO(2) emission reduction. This paper analyzes the cost of the geological storage of CO(2) in Japan in order to consider future research| development and deployment (RD & D); these would be based on the information of the obtained cost structure. According to the analysis results| the costs| particularly those of the transportation by pipeline and of CO(2) injection| strongly depend on the scale of the facilities. Therefore| the distance of the transportation of CO(2) should be minimized in the case of small-scale storage| particularly in Japan. In addition| the potential injection rate per well is another key factor for the injection cost. Based on the analyzed cost| the injection cost of the geological storage of CO(2) in Japan for individual storage sites is estimated| and the cost-potential curve is obtained. A mixed-integer programming model has been developed to take into account these characteristics of the CCS technology and its adverse effects arising from the scale of economy with regard to the transportation and injection cost for the geological storage of CO(2). The model is designed to evaluate CCS and other CO(2) mitigation technologies in the energy systems of Japan. With all these adverse effects due to the scale of economy| the geological storage of CO(2) will be one of the important options for CO(2) emission reduction in Japan. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8082,2007,2,4,Economic impacts of global warming: The case of the Barents Sea fisheries,Regional analyses of possible physical and biological effects of global warming in the Barents Sea area have been carried out recently. Based oil such studies possible economic impacts of global warming oil the Barents Sea fisheries have been quantified| assuming different types of management regimes. The EconSimp000 model| consisting of the. ecosystem model AggMult and the fleet model EconMult have been parameterized based oil fleet and catch records from the Norwegian Barents Sea fisheries. The model has been used to study biological and economic impacts of different environmental scenarios representing possible consequences of global warming. The current environmental situation| including normal seasonal and other variations| has been used as a reference scenario. Several biological and economic indicators have been defined in order to evaluate the simulation results of different environmental scenarios and different types of management regimes. The findings support earlier studies where biological and economic impacts of changes in management regime is found to be more pronounced than impacts caused by effects of global warming. 1518,2007,2,4,Ecophysiological response and morphological adjustment of two Central Asian desert shrubs towards variation in summer precipitation,As part of global climate change| variation in precipitation in arid ecosystems is leading to plant adaptation in water-use strategies; significant interspecific differences in response will change the plant composition of desert communities. This integrated study on the ecophysiological and individual morphological scale investigated the response| acclimation and adaptation of two desert shrubs| with different water-use strategies| to variations in water conditions. The experiments were carried out on two native dominant desert shrubs| Tamarix ramosissima and Haloxylon ammodendron| under three precipitation treatments (natural| double and no precipitation| respectively)| in their original habitats on the southern periphery of Gurbantonggut Desert| Central Asia| during the growing season in 2005. Changes in photosynthesis| transpiration| leaf water potential| water-use efficiency| above-ground biomass accumulation and root distribution of the two species were examined and compared under the contrasting precipitation treatments. There were significant interspecific differences in water-use strategy and maintenance of photosynthesis under variation in precipitation. For the phreatophyte T. ramosissima| physiological activity and biomass accumulation rely on the stable groundwater| which shields it from fluctuation in the water status of the upper soil layers caused by precipitation. For the non-phreatophyte H. ammodendron| efficient morphological adjustment| combined with strong stomatal control| contributes to its acclimation to variation in precipitation. On account of its positive responses to increased precipitation| H. ammodendron is predicted to succeed in interspecific competition in a future| moister habitat. 8187,2007,2,3,Ecosystem change in the western North Pacific associated with global warming using 3D-NEMURO,We developed a 3D ecosystem-biogeochemical model based on NEMURO (North Pacific Ecosystem Model Used for Regional Oceanography) and applied it to the western North Pacific in order to predict the effects of global warming on ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical cycles. Using datasets of observed climatology and simulated fields according to a global warming scenario| IS92a (CO-AGCM developed by CCSR/NIES) as boundary conditions for our ecosystem model| we conducted present-day and global warming experiments and compared their results. Model results in the global warming experiment show increases in vertical stratification due to rising temperatures. As a result| the predicted nutrient and chlorophyll-a concentrations in the surface water decrease at the end of the 21st century and the dominant phytoplankton group shifts from diatoms to other small phytoplankton. The P/B ratio slightly increases from that in the present as a result of favorable temperature conditions| although nutrient conditions become worse. The increase in the P/B ratio causes increases in the NPP and GPP| although new and export productions decrease. Increases in the regeneration rates (i.e.| decrease in the e-ratio) also contribute to increases in NPP and GPP through nutrient supplies within the surface water. Changes in seasonal variations of biomass and the dominant phytoplankton group in the subarctic-subtropical transition region associated with the global warming are large in all regions. in the global warming scenario| the onset of the diatom spring bloom is predicted to take place 1.5 month earlier than in the present-day simulation due to strengthened stratification. The maximum biomass in the spring bloom is predicted to decrease drastically compared to the present due to the decreases in nutrient concentration. In contrast| the biomass maximum of the other small phytoplankton at the end of the diatom spring bloom is the same as the present| because they can adapt to the low nutrient conditions due to their small half-saturation constant. Therefore| a change in the dominant phytoplankton group appears notably at the end of spring bloom. Since the present nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomass from summer to winter are low compared with those in spring| these changes associated with the global warming are small. That is| it is interesting that the changes do not occur uniformly in all seasons| but occur dramatically at the end of the spring and in the fall bloom. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7823,2007,3,2,Effect of advanced injection timing on emission characteristics of diesel engine running on natural gas,There has been a growing concern on the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere| whose consequence is global warming. The sources of greenhouse gases have been identified| of which the major contributor is the combustion of fossil fuel. Researchers have intensified efforts towards identifying greener alternative fuel substitutes for the present fossil fuel. Natural gas is now being investigated as potential alternative fuel for diesel engines. Natural gas appears more attractive due to its high octane number and perhaps| due to its environmental friendly nature. The test results showed that alternative fuels exhibit longer ignition delay| with slow burning rates. Longer delays will lead to unacceptable rates of pressure rise with the result of diesel knock. This work examines the effect of advanced injection timing on the emission characteristics of dual-fuel engine. The engine has standard injection timing of 30 degrees BTDC. The injection was first advanced by 5.5 degrees and given injection timing of 35.5 degrees BTDC. The engine performance was erratic on this timing. The injection was then advanced by 3.5 degrees. The engine performance was smooth on this timing especially at low loading conditions. The ignition delay was reduced through advanced injection timing but tended to incur a slight increase in fuel consumption. The CO and CO2 emissions were reduced through advanced injection timing. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8203,2007,2,4,Effect of air-sea coupling in the assessment of CO(2)-induced intensification of tropical cyclone activity,We compared the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC coupled general circulation model (GCM) with the atmospheric GCM under control and future warmed conditions to investigate the effects of air-sea coupling on tropical cyclone properties| such as intensity and precipitation. Air-sea coupling suppresses tropical cyclone activity| because water vapor supply is reduced by sea surface temperature (SST) decrease due to the cold wakes under the tropical cyclones. Air-sea coupling tends to suppress tropical cyclone activity to a greater extent in a warmer world| because of the higher base SST and a larger decrease in SST due to the enhanced thermal stratification of the upper ocean. The overestimation of tropical cyclone activity in atmospheric models is more significant for extreme variables such as maximum precipitation than for averaged variables. Therefore| changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming based on atmosphere-only models may be overestimated| especially for extreme events. 8028,2007,3,4,Effect of air-staging on mercury speciation in pulverized fuel co-combustion: part 2,The concerns regarding global warming and need for new energy resources brought the concept of biomass and waste as secondary fuels to the power industry. Mercury emissions in cases of cofiring of chicken manure| olive residue| and B-wood with a high volatile bituminous coal blend are studied in the first part of this paper. The use of secondary fuels significantly affects NOx emissions due to different types of nitrogen present in the fuel matrix. Air-staging is a proven in-furnace NOx reduction technology. The present work mainly involves bench scale studies to investigate the effect of air-staging on partitioning of mercury in pulverized fuel co-combustion. The combustion experiments are carried out in an entrained flow reactor at 1300 degrees C with a 20%(th) share of secondary fuels. Elemental and total gaseous mercury from the reactor is measured on-line| and ash is analyzed for particulate mercury along with elemental and surface properties. Reducing the air stoichiometry in the primary zone of the combustor increases unburnt carbon which in turn reduces mercury emissions in the gas phase. Ash analysis shows the effect of surface area| particle size| and unburnt carbon on mercury capture. Calcium variation in the ash was observed due to formation of different slag in reducing and oxidizing conditions and might have affected the mercury capture in combination with the above parameters. A low iron concentration of ash does not seem to affect the capture of mercury. The results will help in predicting different forms of mercury emitted from the furnace at desired operating conditions which will eventually form the basis for the design of the control strategies for mercury emissions. 7813,2007,2,4,Effect of global climatic change on carbonation progress of concrete,In the recent years| global warming has dramatically increased the atmospheric carbon-dioxide (CO2) concentration and temperature. As a consequence of this| carbonation has become one of the most critical durability issues for concrete structures in urban environment. In this study| the climate scenario IS92a recommended by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is used for evaluating the effect Of CO2 concentration on carbonation of concrete. A modified mathematical equation| based on Fick's 1 st law of diffusion| is used to evaluate CO2 diffusion coefficient of concrete. The required cover depth of concrete is estimated by using the applicative methods of reliability and stochastic concepts to take microclimatic conditions into consideration. The tolerance of cover depth should be considered in order to prevent carbonation-induced corrosion. From the relationship between the weight loss of reinforcement and corrosion current density for a given time| the tolerance of cover depth to prevent carbonation-induced corrosion is suggested. It was observed that corrosion occurs when the distance between carbonation front and reinforcement bar surface (the uncarbonated depth) is < 5 mm. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7807,2007,4,4,Effect of imitated global warming on Delta C-13 values in seven plant species growing in Tibet alpine meadows,Open-top chambers were used to estimate the possible effects of global warming on delta C-13 of seven plant species grown in alpine meadow ecosystem. The delta C-13 values of plant species were lower after long-term growth in open-top chambers. In the course of experiment| temperature significantly increased inside the chambers by 4 degrees C. Plant species grown at a lower elevation above sea level had higher delta C-13 values as compared to those grown at a higher elevation. This was in accordance with the effect of open-top chamber on delta C-13 values in plants. Greater availability of CO2 and lower water vapor as indicated by an increase in discrimination against (CO2)-C-13| probably result in more negative delta C-13 values of plants because higher stomatal conductance increases availability of CO2 and causes greater discrimination against (CO2)-C-13. The plant species studied could be the indicator species for testing global warming by the change in carbon isotope ratios at the two growth temperatures. 7738,2007,2,3,Effect of land-ice melting and associated changes in the AMOC result in little overall impact on oceanic CO(2) uptake,The impact of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melting and associated weakening in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on carbon uptake is quantitatively evaluated using coupled climate and biogeochemistry models. We compare two 140-yr global warming scenarios| forced by the same increase in atmospheric CO(2)| but with different GIS melting rates. The AMOC weakening in our 2 scenarios is - 47% and - 21% at 4 x CO(2) when the melting of GIS is or is not considered| respectively. We find that GIS melting and AMOC-induced weakening have little influence on the CO(2) uptake. By isolating the specific effects of salinity and temperature changes on carbon uptake| we find that opposing processes tend to limit the effect of GIS melting. Indeed| in the GIS melting scenario| less saline and cooler waters in high latitudes northern seas tend to increase CO(2) uptake and counter-balance the decreasing CO(2) uptake that follows from circulation changes alone. 8138,2007,2,3,Effect of long-term fertilization on C mineralization and production of CH4 and CO2 under anaerobic incubation from bulk samples and particle size fractions of a typical paddy soil,Impacts of nutrient management on C mineralization and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emission from soils have been of much concern in global change. Using laboratory incubation| the production of CH4 and CO2 were studied from both bulk samples and the particle size fractions (PSF) of topsoil from a paddy under a long-term different fertilization trial (including non (NF)| chemical without (CF) and with manure (CFM) fertilization| respectively) in the Tai Lake Region| China. Four PSFs (2000-200| 200-20| 20-2| < 2 mu m) were separated from undisturbed samples collected after rice harvest by a low-energy ultrasonic dispersion procedure. Both the bulk samples and PSFs were incubated under submerged condition for 72 days. The concentration of CH4 and CO2 evolved during incubation were determined by gas chromatography. C mineralization rates ranged from 0.13 to 0.52 mg C g(-1) C day(-1)| with different fertilizations and size of the PSFs| and were not correlated with C/N ratio. While CO2| production predominated over CH4 from C mineralization from both bulk samples and the size fractions| CH4 production played a predominant role in the total global warming potential (GWP) under all treatments. C mineralization of bulk soil was significantly higher under CF than under CFM and NF. CH4 production| however| was 3 times as under CFM and 27 times as under NF| indicating a tremendous effect of chemical fertilization alone on the total GWR CO2 production from the PSFs differed from CH4 under a single treatment| which was notably from the coarse PSFs larger than 200 mu m. Higher C mineralization and CH4 production with a higher metabolic quotient under CF implicated a vulnerability of soil functioning of GHGs mitigation in the paddy receiving chemical fertilizers only. Thus| rational organic amendments should be undertaken for mitigating the climate change. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V. 8120,2007,3,4,Effect of low-sulfur fuels upon NH3 and N2O emission during operation of commercial three-way catalytic converters,The use of low-sulfur fuel is known to improve the performance of the three-way catalytic converter (TWC). However| in this work we report how low-sulfur operation of commercial TWC also favors formation of N2O and NH3 as by products. We found that low-sulfur rich operation above 300 degrees C increases the production of NH3| inhibiting the formation of N2O characteristic of high-sulfur operation. During lean operation| the production of N2O near the stoichiometric point is not significantly affected by the sulfur level. The large production of N2O observed during light-off is not affected by SO2 when the operation is lean| but under rich conditions N2O is produced up to 575 degrees C. The increased production of NH3 and N2O in TWC as a result of the introduction of low-sulfur gasoline is an area that requires further analysis because of its implication upon public health in large urban settings. 7732,2007,2,3,Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity,The response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming is widely debated(1-10). It is often assumed that warmer sea surface temperatures provide a more favourable environment for the development and intensification of tropical cyclones| but cyclone genesis and intensity are also affected by the vertical thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere(1|10-13). Here we use climate models and observational reconstructions to explore the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone 'potential intensity' - a measure that provides an upper bound on cyclone intensity(10-14) and can also reflect the likelihood of cyclone development(15|16). We find that changes in local sea surface temperature are inadequate for characterizing even the sign of changes in potential intensity| but that long- term changes in potential intensity are closely related to the regional structure of warming; regions that warm more than the tropical average are characterized by increased potential intensity| and vice versa. We use this relationship to reconstruct changes in potential intensity over the twentieth century from observational reconstructions of sea surface temperature. We find that| even though tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at a historical high| Atlantic potential intensity probably peaked in the 1930s and 1950s| and recent values are near the historical average. Our results indicate that - per unit local sea surface temperature change - the response of tropical cyclone activity to natural climate variations| which tend to involve localized changes in sea surface temperature| may be larger than the response to the more uniform patterns of greenhouse- gas- induced warming. 1414,2007,2,4,Effect of temperature on heavy metal toxicity to earthworm Lumbricus terrestris (Annelida : Oligochaeta),Earthworms (Lumbricus terrestris) acclimated at 2 degrees C above their habitat temperature (10-12 degrees C) showed about 5% increase in basal rate of oxygen consumption| which increased to about 38% in 14-16 degrees C- and 40% in 16-18 degrees C-| but decreased by 84% in 20-22 degrees C-acclimated worms. Temperature also increased the blood hemoglobin (Hb) concentration| which decreased slightly in 20-22 degrees C-acclimated worms. The worms acclimated at 20-22 degrees C showed their blood to be hypovolemic than that of 10-12 degrees C worms indicating dehydration. Pre-exposure of 10-14 degrees C-acclimated worms to sublethal concentrations of zinc| copper| and lead did not significantly affect the rate of respiration. However| at higher temperatures all these metals inhibited oxygen consumption; zinc| lead| and cadmium by similar to 11% and copper by similar to 18% of that at 14-16 degrees C. At 20-22 degrees C| the respiration was further inhibited| 36% by copper| 18% by cadmium| and similar to 10% by lead and zinc. Copper| lead| and zinc decreased the temperature-enhanced increase in blood Hb concentration at all temperatures. In 20-22 degrees C-acclimated worms heavy metal exposure slightly lowered the oxygen affinity of Hb as well as caused shifts in carbon monoxide difference spectra. The acute toxicity of these metals was not affected by a 2 degrees C rise in acclimation temperature but increased by 17% (lead)| 33% (copper)| and 5% (zinc) in 14-16 degrees C- and by 40% (lead)| 149% (copper)| and 132% (zinc) in 20-22 degrees C-acclimated worms. The increase in toxicity of metals caused by high temperatures may be due to limiting the scope of aerobic metabolism (oxygen extraction| transport| and utilization) via quantitative and qualitative effects on Hb. This terrestrial species appears to be tolerant of slight increases in habitat temperature| Such as that expected with current global climate change. (c) 2007 Wiley Periodicals| Inc. 7975,2007,2,2,Effect of UV-B and high visual radiation on photosynthesis in freshwater (Nostoc spongiaeforme) and marine (Phormidium corium) cyanobacteria,Human activity is causing depletion of ozone in stratosphere| resulting in increased UV-B radiation and global warming.. However| impact of these climatic changes on the aquatic organism (especially marine) is not fully understood. Here| we have studied the effect of excess UV-B and visible radiation oil photosynthetic pigments| fatty acids content| lipid peroxidation| nitrogen content| nitrogen reductase activity and membrane proteins| induction of mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs) and antioxidant enzymes Superoxide dismutase (SOD) and ascorbate peroxidase (APX) in freshwater (Nostoc spongiaeform) and marine (Phormidium corium) cyanobacteria. UV-B treatment resulted in all increase in photosynthetic pigments in Nostoc and decrease in Phormidium| but hi.-h light treatment caused photobleaching of most of the pigments in both the species. Unsaturation level of fatty acids of both total and glycolipids remained unchanged in both the cyanobacteria| as a result Of UV-B and high light treatments. Saturated fatty acids of total and glycolipids declined slightly in Nostoc by both the treatments| but remained unchanged in Phormidium. No changes in the unsaturated lipid content in our study probably suggested adaptation of the organism to the treatments. However| both treatments resulted in peroxidation of membrane lipids| indicating oxidative damage to lipids without any change in the level of unsaturation of fatty acid in the cell membrane. Qualitative and quantitative changes were observed in membrane protein profile due to the treatments. Cyanobacteria were able to synthesize MAAs in response to the UV-B treatment. Both treatments also increased the activities of SOD and APX. In conclusion| the study demonstrated induction of antioxidants such as SOD and APX under visible light treatment and screening pigment (MAAs) under UV-B treatment| which might protect the cyanobacteria from oxidative damage caused by high light and UV-B radiation.
1493,2007,2,4,Effects of carbon dioxide| temperature and ultraviolet-B radiation and their interactions on soybean (Glycine max L.) growth and development,Genetic modifications of agronomic crops will likely be necessary to cope with global climate change. Projected changes in global climate include increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2])| temperatures (T) and ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation which have significant effects on plants| however| their interactions are not clearly known to date. In this study we tested the hypothesis that soybean genotypes differ in growth and physiology with exposure to treatments of [CO2] [360 and 720 mu mol mol(-1) (+[CO2])]| temperature [30/22 and 38/30 degrees C (+T)] and UV-B radiation [0 and 10 kJ m(-2) d(-1) (+UV-B)] and their interactions. Six soybean genotypes (D 88-5320| D 90-9216| Stalwart III| PI 471938| DG 5630 RR| and DP 4933 RR) representing five maturity groups were grown in eight sunlit| controlled environment chambers in which control treatment had 360 mu mol mol(-1) [CO2] at 30/22 degrees C temperatures and 0 kJ UV-B. Results showed that elevated C02 levels compensated the damaging effects caused by negative stressors such as high temperature and high UV-B radiation levels on most of the growth and physiological parameters studied. Total stress response index (TSRI) for each genotype was developed from the cumulative sum of response indices of vegetative and physiological parameters such as plant height| leaf area| total biomass| net photosynthesis| total chlorophyll content| phenolic content| relative injury and wax content. Based on TSRI| the genotypes were classified as tolerant (PI 471938 and D 88-5320)| intermediate (DG 5630 RR and D 90-9216) and sensitive (DP 4933 RR and Stalwart 111). The disruption of growth and physiology was significantly reduced in tolerant genotypes compared to sensitive genotypes. Strong correlations between total response of relative injury (RI)| an indicator of cell membrane thermo stability and TSRI developed in this study show that RI could be used to predict the overall vegetative performance of the crop. However| the total response of RI did not show any linear correlation with TSRI of our previous study (which was developed with responses of reproductive traits). This suggests that there is a need to develop better screening tools and/or breeding strategies in developing genotypes suitable to cope future climates at both vegetative and reproductive stages. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1592,2007,2,4,Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin| Northwest China,Based on hydrology| temperature| and precipitation data from the past 50 years| the effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin in Northwest China were investigated. The long-term trends of the hydrological time series were detected using both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The results showed that the increasing tendency of the temperature has a 5% level of significance| and the temperature increased by nearly VC over the past 50 years. The precipitation showed a significant increase in the 1980s and 1990s| and the average annual precipitation exhibited an increasing trend with a magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both the temperature and precipitation time series around 1986. The streamflow from the headwater of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increase during the last 20 years. The increase in temperature| precipitation| and streamflow may be attributed to global climate change. 8273,2007,2,4,Effects of climate-driven temperature changes on the diversity of freshwater macroinvertebrates,Increasing temperatures due to climate change were found to influence abundance and timing of species in numerous ways. Whereas many studies have investigated climate-induced effects on the phenology and abundance of single species| less is known about climate-driven shifts in the diversity and composition of entire communities. Analyses of long-term data sets provide the potential to reveal such relationships. We analysed time series of entire communities of macrozoobenthos in lakes and streams in Northern Europe. There were no direct linear effects of temperature and climate indices (North Atlantic Oscillation index) on species composition and diversity| but using multivariate statistics we were able to show that trends in average temperature have already had profound impacts on species composition in lakes. These significant temperature signals on species composition were evident even though we analysed comparatively short time periods of 10-15 years. Future climate shifts may thus induce strong variance in community composition. 8023,2007,2,4,Effects of ecogeographic variables on genetic variation in montane mammals: implications for conservation in a global warming scenario,Aim Evolutionary theory predicts that levels of genetic variation in island populations will be positively correlated with island area and negatively correlated with island isolation. These patterns have been empirically established for oceanic islands| but little is known about the determinants of variation on habitat islands. The goals of this study were twofold. Our first aim was to test whether published patterns of genetic variation in mammals occurring on montane habitat islands in the American Southwest conformed to expectations based on evolutionary theory. The second aim of this research was to develop simple heuristic models to predict changes in genetic variation that may occur in these populations as a result of reductions in available mountaintop habitat in response to global warming. Location Habitat islands of conifer forest on mountaintops in the American Southwest. Methods Relationships between island area and isolation with measures of allozyme variation in four species of small mammal| namely the least chipmunk (Tamias minimus)| Colorado chipmunk (Tamias quadrivittatus)| red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus)| and Mexican woodrat (Neotoma mexicana)| were determined using correlation and regression techniques. Significant relationships between island area and genetic variation were used to develop three distinct statistical models with which to predict changes in genetic variation following reduction in insular habitat area arising from global warming. Results Patterns of genetic variation in each species conformed to evolutionary predictions. In general| island area was the most important determinant of heterozygosity| while island isolation was the most important determinant of polymorphism and allelic diversity. The heuristic models predicted widespread reductions in genetic variation| the extent of which depended on the population and model considered. Main conclusions The results support a generalized pattern of genetic variation for any species with an insular distribution| with reduced variation in smaller| more isolated populations. We predict widespread reductions in genetic variation in isolated populations of montane small mammals in the American Southwest as a result of global warming. We conclude that climate-induced reductions in the various dimensions of genetic variation may increase the probability of population extinction in both the short and long term. 8031,2007,2,4,Effects of high temperature on epiphytic lichens: Issues for consideration in a changing climate scenario,The effect of high temperatures on the lichen Evernia prunastri was investigated by analysing the content of photosynthetic pigments| chlorophyll degradation| and the integrity of cell membranes. Results indicate that E. prunastri can tolerate a temperature of 40 degrees C for 24 h| but for longer periods a reduction in chlorophyll b is apparent| suggesting that chlorophyll b could be used as a valuable parameter to detect changes caused by prolonged exposure to such temperatures. Exposure of E. prunastri to a temperature of 80 degrees C had strongly negative effects on the content of photosynthetic pigments| causing both inhibition of chlorophyll synthesis and chlorophyll degradation to phaeophytin; slow acclimation was not capable of preventing such damage. Damage to cell membranes| as indicated by changes in electrical conductivity of the medium| proved to be a useful and simple tool for measuring damage caused by high temperatures. Besides the effects of temperature| results also indicate that exposure to a prolonged dark period has an important negative influence on the chlorophyll alb ratio| suggesting that lichens could be profitably used not only to monitor climate changes| but also to monitor the effects of global dimming. 8163,2007,2,4,Effects of long-term experimental warming on aphid density in the field,Global warming is generally predicted to increase the intensity of herbivore pressure on plants. Support for this prediction often comes from short-term studies| or studies conducted in controlled laboratory settings. We examined the effect of long-term experimental warming on an aphid-sagebrush interaction (Obtusicauda coweni and Artemisia tridentata) in natural field plots in the Rocky Mountains. In no year did we find Support for the prediction that warming increased aphid abundance or Population growth. In fact| warming decreased aphid density on sagebrush in one year| tended to decrease aphids in a second year| and had no effect in a third year. In enclosures that excluded predators| warming decreased aphid population growth by an amount consistent with observed field density differences. Warming increased sagebrush carbon:nitrogen (C:N) ratio and plant size| but there was no significant correlation between these variables and aphid growth or density. In a separate snow-manipulation experiment in unwarmed plots| the timing of snowmelt did not affect aphid density. In conclusion| warming reduced or did not affect aphid density in each of three years| but this effect could not be explained by differences in plant size| bulk C:N ratio| predation| or snowmelt date. Our results suggest that long-term studies within a natural community context may provide counterexamples to the prediction that warming will increase herbivore pressure on plants. 1449,2007,3,3,Effects of matrix shrinkage and swelling on the economics of enhanced-coalbed-methane production and CO2 sequestration in coal,Increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere and their contributions to global climate change are a major concern. CO| sequestration in unmineable coals may be a very attractive option| for economic as well as environmental reasons| if a combination of enhanced-coalbed-methane (ECBM) production and tax incentives becomes sufficiently favorable compared to the costs of capture| transport| and injection of CO2 Darcy flow through cleats is an important transport mechanism in coal. Cleat compression and permeability changes caused by gas sorption/desorption| changes of effective stress| and matrix swelling and shrinkage introduce a high level of complexity into the feasibility of a coal sequestration project. The economic effects of C02-induced swelling on permeabilities and injectivities has received little (if any) detailed attention. CO2 and methane (CH|) have different swelling effects on coal. In this work| the Palmer-Mansoori model for coal shrinkage and permeability increases during primary methane production was rewritten to also account for coal swelling caused by CO2 sorption. The generalized model was added to a compositional| dualporosity coalbed-methane reservoir simulator for primary (CBM) and ECBM production. A standard five-spot of vertical wells and representative coal properties for Appalachian coals was used (Rogers 1994). Simulations and sensitivity analyses were performed with the modified simulator for nine different parameters| including coal scam and operational parameters and economic criteria. The coal properties and operating parameters that were varied included Young's modulus| Poisson's ratio| cleat porosity| and injection pressure. The economic variables included CH| price| Col Cost| CO2 credit| water disposal cost| and interest rate. Net-pre sent- value (NPV) analyses of the simulation results included profits resulting from CH| production and potential incentives for sequestered CO| This work shows that for some coal seams| the combination of compressibility| cleat porosity| and shrinkage/swelling of the coal may have a significant impact on project economics.. 7978,2007,2,2,Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering,The problem of global warming arises from the buildup of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels and other human activities that change the composition of the atmosphere and alter outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). One geoengineering solution being proposed is to reduce the incoming sunshine by emulating a volcanic eruption. In between the incoming solar radiation and the OLR is the entire weather and climate system and the hydrological cycle. The precipitation and streamflow records from 1950 to 2004 are examined for the effects of volcanic eruptions from El Chichon in March 1982 and Pinatubo in June 1991| taking into account changes from El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 there was a substantial decrease in precipitation over land and a record decrease in runoff and river discharge into the ocean from October 1991-September 1992. The results suggest that major adverse effects| including drought| could arise from geoengineering solutions. 8308,2007,3,4,Effects of nitrogen fertiliser and wheat straw application on CH4 and N2O emissions from a paddy rice field,A 3-year field experiment was conducted to study the effects of nitrogen fertiliser and straw application on CH4 and N2O emissions from a paddy rice field in China from 2003 to 2005. Three rates of nitrogen fertiliser ( 0| 200| and 270 kg N/ha) and 2 levels of wheat straw ( 0 and 3.75 x 10(3) kg/ha) were adopted in this experiment. The effect of nitrogen fertiliser application on CH4 emission seemed to be affected by application rate. Nitrogen fertiliser decreased CH4 emission relative to the control when applied at a rate of 200 kg N/ha| but the effect lessened if the application rate was further increased to a rate of 270 kg N/ha. The depressive effect of nitrogen fertiliser application on CH4 emissions from rice fields became more pronounced when wheat straw was also incorporated with fertiliser| compared with nitrogen fertiliser application alone. Straw incorporation significantly enhanced CH4 emission by 3-11 times (P < 0.05). Nitrogen fertiliser application increased N2O emission by 5-6 times when applied at a rate of 200 kg N/ha and by 10-14 times when applied at a rate of 270 kg N/ha. On average| straw incorporation tended to decrease N2O emission by about 30% significant (P > 0.05). More than 50% of seasonal total amount of N2O was emitted within 11 days after fertiliser application at panicle initiation. The global warming potential caused by both CH4 and N2O emissions was affected by nitrogen fertiliser application rate and significantly stimulated by wheat straw incorporation. The global warming potential was lowest when nitrogen fertiliser was applied at a rate of 200 kg N/ha. 8168,2007,2,3,Effects of nitrogen on the ecosystem respiration| CH4 and N2O emissions to the atmosphere from the freshwater marshes in northeast China,Freshwater marshes could be a source of greenhouse gases emission because they contain large amounts of soil carbon and nitrogen. These emissions are strongly influenced by exogenous nitrogen. We investigate the effects of exogenous nitrogen on ecosystem respiration (CO2)| CH4 and N2O emissions from freshwater marshes in situ in the Sanjiang Plain Northeast of China during the growing seasons of 2004 and 2005| using a field fertilizer experiment and the static opaque chamber/GC techniques. The results show that there were no significant differences in patterns of seasonal variations of CO2 and CH4 among the fertilizer and non-fertilizer treatments| but the seasonal patterns of N2O emission were significantly influenced by the exogenous nitrogen. Seasonal averages of the CO2 flux from non-fertilizer and fertilizer were 987.74 and 1|344.35 mg m(-2) h(-1)| respectively| in 2004| and 898.59 and 2|154.17 mg m(-2) h(-1)| respectively| in 2005. And the CH4 from the control and fertilizer treatments were 6.05 and 13.56 mg m(-2) h(-1) and 0.72 and 1.88 mg m(-2) h(-1)| respectively| in 2004 and 2005. The difference of N2O flux between the fertilizer and non-fertilizer treatments is also significant either in 2004 and 2005. On the time scale of 20-| 100-| and 500-year periods| the integrated global warming potential (GWP) of CO2 + CH4 + N2O released during the two growing seasons for the treatment of fertilizer was 97| 94 and 89%| respectively| higher than that for the control| which suggested that the nitrogen fertilizer can enhance the GWP of the CH4 and N2O either in long time or short time scale. 1562,2007,2,4,Effects of temperature on larval survival rate and duration of development in Lymantria monacha (L.) on needles of Pinus sylvestris (L.) and in L. dispar (L.) on leaves of Quercus robur (L.),This study assessed the effects of temperature on survival rate and duration of development (DD)| i.e.| time needed by larvae to reach the pupal stage| in nun moth (Lymantria monacha L.) and gypsy moth (L. dispar L.). The larvae were raised at 15| 20 or 25 degrees C| and fed with current-year-needles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and leaves of English oak (Quercus robur L.)| respectively. With increasing temperature 15| 20 and 25 degrees C| larval survival rate (LSR) declined in L. monacha (for 35(th) day LSR was 0.44| 0.31 and 0.21| respectively)| but increased in L. dispar (0.50| 1.00 and 0.94). In contrast| the duration of development decreased with increasing temperature in larvae of both moth species (67| 52 and 39 days for L. monacha| and 66| 43 and 33 days for L. dispar| respectively). The differences in larval survival rate between those species at higher temperatures can affect significantly their growth and development in warmer years. Therefore| it is possible that under global climate change these differences may lead to changes in distribution of both insect species. 1378,2007,2,4,Effects of tropospheric ozone pollution on net primary productivity and carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of China,[1] We investigated the potential effects of elevated ozone (O(3)) along with climate variability| increasing CO(2)| and land use change on net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage in China's terrestrial ecosystems for the period 1961 - 2000 with a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) forced by the gridded data of historical tropospheric O(3) and other environmental factors. The simulated results showed that elevated O(3) could result in a mean 4.5% reduction in NPP and 0.9% reduction in total carbon storage nationwide from 1961 to 2000. The reduction of carbon storage varied from 0.1 Tg C to 312 Tg C (a decreased rate ranging from 0.2% to 6.9%) among plant functional types. The effects of tropospheric O(3) on NPP were strongest in east-central China. Significant reductions in NPP occurred in northeastern and central China where a large proportion of cropland is distributed. The O(3) effects on carbon fluxes and storage are dependent upon other environmental factors. Therefore direct and indirect effects of O(3)| as well as interactive effects with other environmental factors| should be taken into account in order to accurately assess the regional carbon budget in China. The results showed that the adverse influences of increasing O(3) concentration across China on NPP could be an important disturbance factor on carbon storage in the near future| and the improvement of air quality in China could enhance the capability of China's terrestrial ecosystems to sequester more atmospheric CO(2). Our estimation of O(3) impacts on NPP and carbon storage in China| however| must be used with caution because of the limitation of historical tropospheric O(3) data and other uncertainties associated with model parameters and field experiments. 8292,2007,4,4,El Nino and the delayed action oscillator,We study the dynamics of El Nino using the model of a delayed-action oscillator. Topics such as the influence of the annual cycle| global warming| stochastic influences due to weather conditions and off-equatorial heat-sinks are discussed using only modest analytical and numerical resources. The delayed-action oscillator allows for a pedagogical introduction to the science of El Nino and La Nina and avoids the need for large-scale computing resources normally associated with much more sophisticated coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. (C) 2007 American Association of Physics Teachers. 7955,2007,5,3,Elevated atmospheric CO(2) and the delayed biotic recovery from the end-Permian mass extinction,Excessive CO(2) in the Earth ocean-atmosphere system may have been a significant factor in causing the end-Permian mass extinction. CO(2) injected into the atmosphere by the Siberian Traps has been postulated as a major factor leading to the end-Permian mass extinction by facilitating global warming| widespread ocean stratification| and development of anoxic| euxinic and CO(2)-rich deep waters. A broad incursion of this toxic deep water into the surface ocean may have caused this mass extinction. Although previous studies of the role of excessive CO(2) have focused on these "bottom-up" effects emanating from the deep ocean| "top-down" effects of increasing atmosphere CO(2) concentrations on ocean-surface waters and biota have not previously been explored. Passive diffusion of atmospheric CO(2) into ocean-surface waters decreases the pH and CaCO(3) saturation state of seawater| causing a physiological and biocalcification crisis for many marine invertebrates. While both "bottom-up" and "top-down" mechanisms may have contributed to the relatively short-term biotic devastation of the end-Permian mass extinction| such a "top-down" physiological and biocalcification crisis would have had long-term effects and might have contributed to the protracted 5- to 6-million-year-long delay in biotic recovery following this mass extinction. Earth's Modern marine biota may experience similar "top-down" CO(2) stresses if anthropogenic input of atmosphere/ocean CO(2) continues to rise. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1389,2007,2,4,Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature across an urban-rural transect,The heat island effect and the high use of fossil fuels in large city centers are well documented| but by how much fossil fuel consumption is elevating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and whether elevations in both atmospheric CO2 and air temperature from rural to urban areas are consistently different from year to year are less well known. Our aim was to record atmospheric CO2 concentrations| air temperature and other environmental variables in an urban area and compare it to suburban and rural sites to see if urban sites are experiencing climates expected globally in the future with climate change. A transect was established from Baltimore city center (Urban site)| to the outer suburbs of Baltimore (suburban site) and out to an organic farm (rural site). At each site a weather station was set-up to monitor environmental variables for 5 years. Atmospheric CO2 was consistently and significantly increased on average by 66 ppm from the rural to the urban site over the 5 years of the study. Air temperature was also consistently and significantly higher at the urban site (14.8 degrees C) compared to the suburban (13.6 degrees C) and rural (12.7 degrees C) sites. Relative humidity was not different between sites whereas the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was significantly higher at the urban site compared to the suburban and rural sites. An increase in nitrogen deposition at the rural site of 0.6% and 1.0% compared to the suburban and urban sites was small enough not to affect soil nitrogen content. Dense urban areas with large populations and high vehicular traffic have significantly different microclimates compared to outlying suburban and rural| areas. The increases in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are similar to changes predicted in the short term with global climate change| therefore providing an environment suitable for studying future effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 8193,2007,2,4,Elevated temperature| soil moisture and seasonality but not CO(2) affect canopy assimilation and system respiration in seedling Douglas-fir ecosystems,We investigated the effects of elevated atmospheric CO(2) and air temperature on C cycling in trees and associated soil system| focusing on canopy CO(2) assimilation (A(sys)) and system CO(2) loss through respiration (R(sys)). We hypothesized that both elevated CO(2) and elevated temperature would stimulate A(sys) and R(sys). The study was conducted in sun-lit controlled-environment mesocosms using Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. Franco) seedlings grown in reconstructed plant-litter-soil systems. A completely randomized design with two atmospheric CO(2) and two air temperature levels was used. A mass-balance approach was used to calculate daily mean A(sys) and R(sys) rates for 19 months. A mixed model analysis was used to test the effects of CO(2) and air temperature on daily A(sys) and R(sys) adjusted for covariates of time| light| soil moisture and seasonality. Elevated temperature stimulated A(sys) and R(sys) but elevated CO(2) did not. Elevated CO(2) and temperature both increased light sensitivity and the light saturation level of photosynthesis. Both A(sys) and R(sys) were controlled by temperature| soil moisture and endogenous seasonal processes. Temperature sensitivity of R(sys) varied seasonally but there was no acclimatization. Because of the close linkage between assimilation and respiration| elevated CO(2) failed to stimulate A(sys) and R(sys). Although CO(2) is a substrate| assimilate is also controlled by its concentration. Needle-level studies established that increasing CO(2) down regulates assimilation through changes in Rubisco| especially if resources are limited. This study shows that increasing CO(2) also regulates assimilation allometrically through changes in needle area. Stimulation of assimilation is offset by a reduction in needle area such that the A(sys) and R(sys) are similar in ambient and elevated treatments. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8108,2007,2,4,Elevated temperatures increase leaf senescence and root secondary metabolite concentrations in the understory herb Panax quinquefolius (Araliaceae),The response of understory species to elevated temperatures is not well understood but is important because these plants are highly sensitive to their growth conditions. Three-year-old plants of Panax quinquefolius| an understory herb endemic to the eastern deciduous forests of North America| were grown in a greenhouse at 25/20 degrees C (day/night) or 30/25 degrees C for one growing season and analyzed each month. Plants grown at high temperatures had an early onset of leaf senescence and therefore accumulated less carbon. From May to July| P. quinquefolius grown at high temperatures had decreased photosynthesis (52%)| stomatal conductance (60%)| and root and total biomass (33% and 28%| respectively) compared to plants grown at low temperatures. As P. quinquefolius prepared to overwinter| plants grown at high temperatures had less root biomass (53%) than plants in low temperatures. The amount of storage-root ginsenosides was unaffected by temperature| and differences in storage root size may explain why plants grown at high temperatures had greater concentrations of storage root ginsenosides (49%) than plants grown at low temperatures. Panax quinquefolius is clearly sensitive to a 5 degrees C increase in temperature| and therefore other understory species may be negatively impacted by future increases in global temperature. 7998,2007,3,4,Emission of N(2)O and CH(4) from a constructed wetland in southeastern Norway,The Skjonhaug constructed wetland (CW) is a free surface water (FSW) wetland polishing chemically treated municipal wastewater in southeastern Norway and consists of three ponds as well as trickling| unsaturated filters with light weight aggregates (LWA). Fluxes of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and methane (CH(4)) have been measured during the autumn| winter and summer from all three ponds as well as from the unsaturated filters. Physicochemical parameters of the water have been measured at the same localities. The large temporal and spatial variation of N(2)O fluxes was found to cover a range of - 0.49 to 110 mg N(2)O-N m(-2) day(-1)| while the fluxes of CH(4) was found to cover a range of -1.2 to 1900 mg m(-2) day(-1). Thus| both emission and consumption occurred. Regarding fluxes of N(2)O there was a significant difference between the summer| winter and autumn| with the highest emissions occurring during the autumn. The fluxes of CH(4) were| on the other hand| not significantly different with regard to seasons. Both the emissions of N(2)O and CH(4) were positively influenced by the amount of total organic carbon (TOC). The measured fluxes of N(2)O and CH(4) are in the same range as those reported from other CWs treating wastewater. There was an approximately equal contribution to the global warming potential from N(2)O and CH(4)C (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8119,2007,3,2,Emissions of greenhouse gases from a typical chinese swine farrowing barn,Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from animal feeding operations to the atmosphere are of environmental importance and concerns because of their impact on global warming. Gaseous concentrations and emission rates (ERs) of animal facilities can be affected by the animal production stages| animal species| dietary nutrition| housing types| manure handling schemes| and environmental conditions. This article reports ERs of methane (CH4)| nitrous oxide (N2O)| and carbon dioxide (CO2) for a typical| naturally ventilated 24-crate swine farrowing barn located in suburban Beijing| China| that was monitored over one-year period. The measurements were made at bi-monthly intervals (i.e.| six measurement episodes total)| with each measurement episode covering three consecutive days. Gaseous concentrations were monitored at bi-hourly intervals throughout each 3-day measurement episode. The ventilation rate of the barn was estimated using the CO2 mass balance method. The GHG concentrations and ERs of the farrowing barn showed diurnal and seasonal variations. Specifically| the concentrations (monthly mean +/-SD| mg m(-3)) ranged from 2.3 (+/- 0.3) to 9.3 (+/- 2) for CH4| from 0.6 (+/- 0.02) to 1.2 (+/- 0.16) for N2O| and from 1|370 (+/- 163) to 11|100 (+/- 950) for CO2| with the higher levels occurring in January and the lower levels in July. The specific ER ranged from 95.2 to 261.8 rag h(-1) pig(-1) for CH4| from 6.4 to 12.9 mg h(-1) pig(-1)| for N2O| and from 122.9 to 127.3 g h(-1) pig(-1) for CO2. On the basis of per animal unit (1 AU = 500 kg live body mass)| the average daily ERs of the farrowing barn were 9.6 +/- 3.6 gAU(-1) d(-1) for CH4| 0.54 +/- 0.15 gAU(-1) d(-1) for N2O| and 7.5 +/- 0.1 kg AU(-1) d(-1) for CO2. Results of the GHG ERs from this study differ markedly from the limited literature data collected primarily under European production systems and conditions. Results of the current study provide some baseline data on GHG ERs for swine farrowing operations| thus contributing to development or improvement of GHG emission inventory under the Chinese livestock production conditions. 7889,2007,3,4,Energy budget in organic and conventional olive groves,An energy analysis| combined with an economic one| in conventional and organic olive groves is useful in evaluating present situation and deciding best management strategies. The objective of this study was to evaluate the differences in the energy budget between organic and conventional olive groves in three locations in the island of Thasos and to calculate CO2-emissions based on the used fossil energy. The data were collected through personal interviews with farmers during 2000-2003. Twenty-four farmers| who owned olive groves about I ha each| were randomly selected to participate in this study [(4 conventional and 4 organic) x 3 locations]. The means averaged over all locations for fertilizer application energy was significantly higher in conventional than in organic olive groves| while the opposite occurs for insect trapping energy. Means averaged over the two farming systems for weed control energy were significantly higher in the northeastern part of the island| followed by the northwestern and southern part. The means averaged over all locations for labor and fertilizers energy were significantly higher in conventional than in organic olive groves| while the opposite was observed for tools energy. Means averaged over the two farming systems for labor and tools energy were significantly higher in the northwestern part of the island. Means averaged over the two farming systems for electric and pesticides energy were significantly higher in the northwestern part of the island. Total energy inputs were not affected by any of the studied parameters| while outputs were affected by the location| by the farming system and their interaction. Outputs in the northeastern part of the island and production in all parts of the island were significantly lower in organic than in conventional olive groves. Outputs and production were lower in the southern part of the island than in the other parts| since olive groves in southern Thasos are located in slopes with less productive soils. The results show a clear response of energy inputs to energy outputs that resulted from the farming system and location. Global warming potential and CO2-emissions were not affected by the farming system and location. Organic olive groves tended to have lower CO2-emissions caused by the different uses of fossil energy. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8353,2007,3,2,Energy for sustainable development: Key issues and challenges,Energy generation and use are strongly linked to all elements of sustainable development such as economic| social| and environmental. The history of human development rests on the availability and use of energy| the transformation from the early use of fire and animal power that improved lives| to the present world with use of electricity and clean fuels for a multitude of purposes. Energy is the neglected issue of the development debate. The lack of access to reliable and clean energy supplies is a major barrier to improving human well-being around the globe. There are an estimated 1.6 billion people living in the rural areas of developing countries who lack access to electricity| and so dependence on fossil fuels. Combustion of fossil fuels produces large amounts of CO2| an important greenhouse gas. In response to increasing concern about the effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on global climate| international action has been agreed to reduce these emissions. On the other hand| renewable energy is the great| barely tapped solution to the two great challenges of the coming century such as poverty and global warming. Not only can renewable energy provide a clean| flexible power source for homes| schools and hospitals| at the micro-to-medium scale it has huge potential to create meaningful and useful jobs. 8332,2007,3,3,Energy use and economical analysis of sugar beet production in Tokat province of Turkey,The purposes of this study were to determine energy consumption of input and output used in sugar beet production| and to make a cost analysis in Tokat| Turkey. Data were collected from 146 sugar beet farms in Tokat| Turkey by using a face-to-face questionnaire performed in January and February 2005. Farms were selected based on random sampling method. The results revealed that total energy consumption in sugar beet production was 39 685.51 MJ ha(-1)| and accounted for 49.33% of fertilizer energy| and 24.16% of diesel energy. The output/input energy ratio was 25.75 and energy productivity was 1.53 kg MJ ha(-1). Results further indicated that 82.43% of total energy input was in non-renewable energy form| and only 12.82% was in renewable form. Economic analyses showed that profit-cost ratio of farms was 1.17. The highest energy cost items were labor| land renting| depreciation and fertilizers. Although intensive energy consumption in sugar beet production increased the yield| it also resulted in problems such as global warming| land degradation| nutrient loading and pesticide pollution. Therefore| there is a need to pursue a new policy to force producers to undertake energy-efficient practices to establish sustainable production systems without disrupting the natural resources. In addition| extension activities are needed to improve the efficiency of energy consumption and to sustain the natural resources. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8006,2007,2,4,Enhancement of coastal upwelling and interdecadal ENSO-like variability in the Peru-Chile Current since late 19th century,Secular trends in coastal upwelling proxies from a sediment record at 23 degrees S encompassing 250 years reveal two distinct stages separated by a transition period between AD 1820 and 1878. Persistent interdecadal variability that roughly follows the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is accompanied by intensification of upwelling-favourable coastal winds and decreased coastal sea surface temperature since AD 1878. We propose that an increased land-sea thermal contrast along the arid coast of northern Chile and Peru intensifies the equatorward wind stress due to reduced mean low-cloud cover| resulting in enhanced primary and export production during interdecadal El Nino-like conditions. This mechanism overcompensates for the overall effect of a regional surface warming secular trend in the Peru-Chile Current System| providing a novel insight on physical and biogeochemical feedbacks of coastal upwelling ecosystems to global warming. 7959,2007,4,4,Ensemble decadal predictions from analysed initial conditions,Sensitivity experiments using a coupled model initialized from analysed atmospheric and oceanic observations are used to investigate the potential for interannual-to-decadal predictability. The potential for extending seasonal predictions to longer time scales is explored using the same coupled model configuration and initialization procedure as used for seasonal prediction. It is found that| despite model drift| climatic signals on interannual-to-decadal time scales appear to be detectable. Two climatic states have been chosen: one starting in 1965| i.e. ahead of a period of global cooling| and the other in 1994| ahead of a period of global warming. The impact of initial conditions and of the different levels of greenhouse gases are isolated in order to gain insights into the source of predictability. 8143,2007,2,4,Environment and development in the Republic of the Marshall Islands: Linking climate change with sustainable fisheries development,The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is a major custodian of one of the ocean's major natural resources: tuna. The commercial tuna fisheries sector is the most important economic sector in the RMI and is thus a substantial contributor to this tiny island nation's GDP. Tuna catch and its associated revenues has fluctuated in line with climatic events such as the El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and| in the last decade| national fisheries development policies have begun to capitalize on the positive effects that ENSO warm events have had on the tuna populations. However| global warming is expected to have a significant impact on ENSO| and not necessarily in positive ways. This paper will focus on the relationship between environment and economic development in the RMI fisheries sector. In particular| the linkages between global warming and its effects on the tuna fisheries sector must be better understood and uncertainties accounted for so that impacts are appropriately addressed and integrated into sustainable fisheries development policies. Conclusions reached are that new fisheries development strategies that emphasize environmental-based planning are required. The emerging ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management is a start| as are the various international initiatives in furthering our understanding of the linkages between climate and ocean systems currently underway. 8098,2007,3,3,Environmental analysis of plastic production processes: Comparing petroleum-based polypropylene and polyethylene with biologically-based poly-beta-hydroxybutyric acid using life cycle analysis,Polymers based on olefins have wide commercial applicability. However| they are made from non-renewable resources and are characterised by difficulty in disposal where recycle and re-use is not feasible. Poly-beta-hydroxybutyric acid (PHB) provides one example of a polymer made from renewable resources. Before motivating its widespread use| the advantages of a renewable polymer must be weighed against the environmental aspects of its production. Previous studies relating the environmental impacts of petroleum-based and bio-plastics have centred on the impact categories of global warming and fossil fuel depletion. Cradle-to-grave studies report equivalent or reduced global warming impacts| in comparison to equivalent polyolefin processes. This stems from a perceived CO2 neutral status of the renewable resource. Indeed| no previous work has reported the results of a life cycle assessment (LCA) giving the environmental impacts in all major categories. This study investigates a cradle-to-gate LCA of PHB production taking into account net CO2 generation and all major impact categories. It compares the findings with similar studies of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE). It is found that| in all of the life cycle categories| PHB is superior to PP. Energy requirements are slightly lower than previously observed and significantly lower than those for polyolefin production. PE impacts are lower than PHB values in acidification and eutrophication. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7873,2007,3,2,Environmental and economic assessment of the chemical absorption process in Korea using the LEAP model,CO2 emission from fossil fuels is a major cause for the global warming effect| but it is hard to remove completely in actuality. Moreover| energy consumption is bound to increase for the continuous economic development of a country that has an industrial formation requiring high-energy demand. Therefore| we need to consider not only a device for CO2 mitigation but also its impact when a CO2 mitigation device is applied. The device for CO2 emission mitigation can be classified into three fields: energy consumption reduction| development of CO2 removal and recovery technology| and development of alternative energy technology. Among these options| CO2 removal and recovery technology has a merit that can be applied to a process in the near future. Therefore| research for CO2 removal and recovery is actively progressing in Korea. In this study| environmental and economic assessment according to the energy policy change for climate change agreement and increase of CO2 mitigation technology is accomplished| on the bases of operating data for the CO2 chemical absorption pilot plant that is installed in the Seoul coal steam power plant. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) was used to analyze the alternative scenario| and results were shown quantitatively. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7836,2007,3,4,Environmental assessment of energy production from municipal solid waste incineration,Background| Aims and Scope. During the combustion of municipal solid waste (MSW)| energy is produced which can be utilized to generate electricity. However| electricity production from incineration has to be evaluated from the point view of the environmental performance. In this study| environmental impacts of electricity production from waste incineration plant in Thailand are compared with those from Thai conventional power plants. Methods. The evaluation is based on a life cycle perspective using life cycle assessment (LCA) as the evaluation tool. Since MSW incineration provides two services| viz.| waste management and electricity production| the conventional power production system is expanded to include landfilling without energy recovery| which is the most commonly used waste management system in Thailand| to provide the equivalent function of waste management. Results. The study shows that the incineration performs better than conventional power plants vis-a-vis global warming and photochemical ozone formation| but not for acidification and nutrient enrichment. Discussion. There are some aspects which may influence this result. If landfilling with gas collection and flaring systems is included in the analysis along with conventional power production instead of landfilling without energy recovery| the expanded system could become more favorable than the incineration in the global warming point of view. In addition| if the installation of deNO(x) process is employed in the MSW incineration process| nitrogen dioxide can be reduced with a consequent reduction of acidification and nutrient enrichment potentials. However| the conventional power plants still have lower acidification and nutrient enrichment potentials. Conclusions. The study shows that incineration could not play the major role for electricity production| but in addition to being a waste management option| could be considered as a complement to conventional power production. To promote incineration as a benign waste management option| appropriate deNO(x) and dioxin removal processes should be provided. Separation of high moisture content waste fractions from the waste to be incinerated and improvement of the operation efficiency of the incineration plant must be considered to improve the environmental performance of MSW incineration. Recommendations. This study provides an overall picture and impacts| and hence| can support a decision-making process for implementation of MSW incineration. The results obtained in this study could provide valuable information to implement incineration. But it should be noted that the results show the characteristics only from some viewpoints. Outlook. Further analysis is required to evaluate the electricity production of the incineration plant from other environmental aspects such as toxicity and land-use. 7834,2007,3,3,Environmental assessment of Ronozyme (R) p5000 CT phytase as an alternative to inorganic phosphate supplementation to pig feed used in intensive pig production,Goal| Scope and Background. Ronozyme (R) P5000 CT is an industrially produced enzyme product (phytase) which is able to degrade naturally occurring phytate in animal feed and release the phytate's content of phosphorus for pig's growth. Ronozyme P5000 CT (hereafter called Ronozyme Phytase) can be used as an alternative to inorganic phosphorus supplementation to feed and the study addresses the environmental implications of substituting inorganic phosphorus with Ronozyme Phytase in intensive pig production in Denmark. Methods. Life cycle assessment is used as an analytical tool| and modelling of the two considered systems is facilitated in SimaPro 6.0 software. The study addresses changes induced by switching from the one alternative to the other| and all significant processes influenced by the change are included in the study. Results and Conclusions. Application of Ronozyme Phytase in intensive pig production is justified by major advantages in terms of avoided contributions to global warming| acidification| photochemical ozone formation and particularly nutrient enrichment and by significant energy savings and particularly phosphate savings. A single trade-off in terms of agricultural land use for enzyme production is small and unimportant unless use of agricultural land is given very large relative weight. Recommendations and Perspectives. Hundreds of enzyme products are commercially available on the market today| each with a range of different applications. There are several indications that enzymes like Ronozyme Phytase can play an important role in a transition to a more sustainable society| and more focus should be addressed to the evolving enzyme technology in environmental research. 8283,2007,2,3,Environmental assessment of Swedish agriculture,This article describes an environmental assessment of Swedish agriculture| including upstream and downstream effects. The analysis is based on environmentally extended input-output analysis| but it is also supplemented with data from other sources. The analysis shows that direct effects by the Swedish agriculture are the most important| while indirect effects from other sources including mobile and impacts abroad are also considerable. The most important impacts from Swedish agriculture according to the analysis are eutrophication| global warming and resource use. The agricultural sector produces a large share of the Swedish emissions causing both global warming and eutrophication. In addition| current agricultural practice causes problems with loss of biodiversity. The most important actors in the sector are agriculture itself| but also all actors using fossil fuels: primarily the transport sector and the energy sector. In addition| consumers are important since they can influence the composition of agricultural production. The analysis shows the importance of including upstream and downstream effects when analysing the environmental impacts from a sector. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7805,2007,2,4,Environmental controls on the CO2 exchange in north European mires,Net CO| exchange measured under well-mixed atmospheric conditions in four different mires in Sweden and Finland were used to analyse which factors were controlling photosynthesis and respiration. The parameters of a light response function showed strong seasonal variations with similar behaviour for all mires. The half-monthly nighttime respiration rates in the central part of the growing season were about two times higher in the southernmost| warmest site. Faje. as compared to the northernmost| coldest site| Kaamanen. However. Kaamanen had high photosynthesis rates| and this in combination with the long daylight periods in the middle of the summer caused Kaamanen to have the largest net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during the summer period. Faje that showed the highest productivity had also the highest respiration and therefore. the lowest NEE during summer. Correlation between half-monthly components and different environmental variables showed the highest correlation between the components themselves. Thereafter came temperature except for Faje where water table depth (WTD) explained most of the variance both for detrended and temperature-normalized components. All sites showed dependencies between WTD and the respective components during drying up periods. Temperature sensitivity was higher for productivity than for respiration indicating that CO uptake would increase during global warming. 7859,2007,3,3,Environmental damage costs from fossil electricity generation in China| 2000 similar to 2003,Electricity consumption increases rapidly with the rapid development of China. The environmental damage costs of electricity generation are very important for both policy analysis and the proper management of the environment. A method was developed in this work to estimate gross environmental damage costs according to emission inventory and environmental cost factors| and to extend the costs from provincial to national level with population density. In this paper| sulfur dioxide (SO2)| nitrogen oxides (NOx)| particulate matter less than 10 mu m in diameter (PM10)| and carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fired power plants over 6000 kW were selected as index pollutants to quantify the environmental costs of damages on human health and global warming. With the new developed method| environmental damage costs| caused by 3 types of fired power plants in 30 provinces and 6 economic sectors during the years 2000 to 2003| were evaluated and analyzed. It can be seen that the calculated total national environmental damage costs of electricity have rapidly increased from 94930.87 x 10(6) USD in 2000 to about 141041.39 x 10(6) USD in 2003| with an average annual growth rate of 14.11%. Environmental damage costs of SO2| NOx| PM10| and CO2 are 69475.69 x 10(6)| 30079.29 x 10(6)| 28931.84 x 10(6)| and 12554.57 x 10(6) USD and account for 49.26%| 21.33%| 20.51%| and 8.90% of total environmental costs in fossil electricity generation| respectively. With regard to regional distribution| external costs caused by fossil electricity generation are mainly concentrated in the more populated and industrialized areas of China| i.e.| the Eastern Central and Southeastern areas. 8324,2007,2,4,Environmental effects on asexual reproduction rates of the scyphozoan Aurelia labiata,Problem outbreaks of jellyfish and warming of the Earth's climate are both being reported at unprecedented rates. Models forecast continued changes in temperature| salinity| and solar radiation (insolation) in the world's oceans as consequences of global warming. Many species with a swimming jellyfish stage also have a benthic stage that asexually produces buds and new jellyfish (ephyrae). This perennial benthic stage probably determines the numbers of jellyfish in the population. In this study| polyps of the moon jellyfish Aurelia labiata from Puget Sound| Washington| USA| were tested in 9 combinations of temperature (7| 10| 15 degrees C) and salinity (20| 27| 34) in the dark| and in 9 combinations of photoperiod (12| 8| and 4 h d(-1)) and light intensity (1 screen| 2 screens| opaque) at ambient salinity (27) and temperature (15 degrees C). Another experiment tested polyps in treatments of 10| 15| and 20 degrees C. Survival of the initial polyps in all treatments was high (83 to 100%). Temperature| salinity| and their combination dramatically affected the numbers of ephyrae produced (from nearly 0 at 7 degrees C to 42 ephyrae polyp(-1) at 15 degrees C)| the percentages of ephyrae out of total asexual reproduction (<= 12 % at 7 degrees C to 89% at 20 degrees C)| and the delay before ephyra production (>81 d at 7 degrees C but only 39 to 46 d at 15 degrees C). Thus| all results showed that more jellyfish were produced with increasing temperature. Long photoperiod and highest light intensity greatly accelerated strobilation| with polyps in 12 h light strobilating 30 to 40 d before those in other treatments. Polyps receiving the most light strobilated most frequently. In situ conditions showed that light increased much more rapidly than temperature before strobilisation| suggesting that light may be the more important signal. I suggest that the light-sensitive hormone melatonin| or a precursor like serotonin| coordinates the timing of strobilation in A. labiata with the seasonal light cycle. 1511,2007,2,4,Environmental hazard analysis and effective remediation of highway seepage,Risk assessment and minimisation of environmental hazards are critical issues to consider in the geotechnical engineering projects. A case of highway pavement seepage induced by groundwater| at a locality along the section of Hua-Qing Highway of Guangdong Province| China| is presented for environmental hazard analysis and effective remediation. The environmental hazard analyses were based on in situ hydrogeologic investigation| rock-soil testing and integrated environmental understanding. The analyses indicate that the highway seepage was caused by elevation of groundwater hydraulic pressure in low permeable strata near the highway pavement| which was controlled by landform| hydrology| weather and road structure. The risk source of groundwater 'flooding' was the groundwater and surface water in the ring-like valley around Fenshui Village. A blind-ditch system for effective remediation of the pavement seepage hazard was proposed and successfully implemented by declining groundwater table near the highway based on the comprehensive assessment of various conditions. This geotechnical accident shows that the role of groundwater is an essential factor to consider in the geotechnical and environmental engineering studies and multidisciplinary effort for risk assessment of environmental hazards is important under current global climate change condition. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8204,2007,3,4,Environmental impact and economic benefits of site-specific nutrient management (SSNM) in irrigated rice systems,Site-specific nutrient management (SSNM) provides a field-specific approach for dynamically applying nutrients to rice as and when needed. This approach advocates optimal use of indigenous nutrients originating from soil| plant residues| manures| and irrigation water. Fertilizers are then applied in a timely fashion to overcome the deficit in nutrients between the total demand by rice to achieve a yield target and the supply from indigenous sources. We estimated environmental impact of SSNM and evaluated economic benefits in farmers' fields in southern India| the Philippines| and southern Vietnam for two cropping seasons in 2002-2003. On-farm research comparing SSNM and the farmers' fertilizer practice showed increased yield with SSNM for the three locations| even with reduced fertilizer N rates in some cases. SSNM increased partial factor productivity (kg grain kg(-1) fertilizer N) when fertilizer N use efficiency with the farmers' fertilizer practice was relatively low such as at locations in Vietnam and the Philippines. Use of on-farm data with the DNDC model revealed lower percentage of total N losses from applied fertilizers with SSNM during an annual cycle of cropping and fallows. At the location in India| SSNM showed the potential of obtaining higher yields with increased fertilizer N use while maintaining low N2O emissions. SSNM in the Philippines and Vietnam showed greater yields with less fertilizer N through improved fertilizer use efficiency| which could reduce N2O emissions and global warming. Use of SSNM never resulted in increased emissions of N2O per unit of grain yield| and in environments where higher yield could be obtained with less fertilizer N| the use of SSNM could result in reduced N2O emissions per unit of grain yield. For the economic analysis| data were generated through focus group discussions (FGD) with farmers practicing SSNM and with other farmers not practicing SSNM. Based on FGD| the seasonal increase in yield of farmers solely due to use of SSNM averaged 0.2 Mg ha(-1) in southern Vietnam| 0.3 Mg ha(-1) in the Philippines| and 0.8 Mg ha(-1) in southern India. Farmers practicing SSNM at the study site in India used less pesticide. The added net annual benefit due to use of SSNM was 34 US$ ha(-1) year(-1) in Vietnam| 106 US$ ha(-1) year(-1) in the Philippines| and 168 US$ ha(-1) year(-1) in India. The increased benefit with SSNM was attributed to increased yield rather than reduced costs of inputs. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7784,2007,3,4,Environmental impact of fuel for district heating system with gas-fired peak load boiler in secondary network,District heating system fired by different fuels would cause different environmental impacts. The impacts of the fuels for the system with gas-fired peak-load boiler in the secondary network on environment were quantitatively assessed. The aim is to compare the systems with different peak load ratio. Production of the system in one heating season was defined as a functional unit. Energy consumption and pollution emission in phase of fuel production| transport and use were calculated. Based on inventory analysis and impact assessment| nonrenewable resource depletion potential (NRDP)| global warming potential (GWP)| and criteria pollution impact (CPI) of the system with different peak load ratio were evaluated. The result shows that it will optimize the energy structure of heating system and decrease comprehensive environmental impact to set peak-load boiler in the secondary network. 8372,2007,3,4,Environmental impact of wheat production using human urine and mineral fertilisers - a scenario study,Life cycle assessment methodology was used to compare conventional wheat production with a scenario where source-separated human urine replaced mineral fertilisers. A change-orientated perspective was used| including differences in capital goods between the scenarios. An optimal fertilising strategy regarding application time| technique and substitution of mineral fertiliser was demonstrated to be important for energy use| global warming and acidification. For reducing the energy use| a well designed collection system for urine also proved important| while recovery of the urine was essential for reducing eutrophication. Applying an agricultural perspective when evaluating the system highlighted potential conflicts regarding nutrient utilisation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8127,2007,3,4,Environmental life cycle impact as a tool for process optimisation of a utility plant,The purpose of this paper is to minimize environmental life cycle impact when a detail process modelling is available. A methodology is presented to calculate the optimum operating conditions of an ethylene process utility plant. The overall environmental impact is calculated as a weighted sum of global warming| acidification| eutrophication| photochemical oxidation| ozone depletion| human toxicity and ecotoxicity. The battery limits of the plant are extended to include the relevant environmental impacts corresponding to the imported electricity generated in thermoelectric| hydroelectric and nuclear plants. A mixed integer non-linear programming|problem is formulated and solved in GAMS. Significant reductions in environmental impact particularly in global warming| the most relevant category| are obtained choosing the pressure and temperature of high| medium and low pressure steam headers together with the selection of optional drivers and boilers. Improvements achieved simultaneously in natural gas and electricity consumption and operating cost are also reported. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7728,2007,5,4,Environmental precursors to rapid light carbon injection at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary,The start of the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum - a period of exceptional global warming about 55 million years ago - is marked by a prominent negative carbon isotope excursion that reflects a massive input of C-13-depleted (`light') carbon to the ocean - atmosphere system(1). It is often assumed(2) that this carbon injection initiated the rapid increase in global surface temperatures and environmental change that characterize the climate perturbation(3-7)| but the exact sequence of events remains uncertain. Here we present chemical and biotic records of environmental change across the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary from two sediment sections in New Jersey that have high sediment accumulation rates. We show that the onsets of environmental change ( as recorded by the abundant occurrence ('acme') of the dinoflagellate cyst Apectodinium) and of surface- ocean warming ( as evidenced by the palaeothermometer TEX86) preceded the light carbon injection by several thousand years. The onset of the Apectodinium acme also precedes the carbon isotope excursion in sections from the southwest Pacific Ocean(8) and the North Sea| indicating that the early onset of environmental change was not confined to the New Jersey shelf. The lag of similar to 3|000 years between the onset of warming in New Jersey shelf waters and the carbon isotope excursion is consistent with the hypothesis that bottom water warming caused the injection of C-13-depleted carbon by triggering the dissociation of submarine methane hydrates(1|9|10)| but the cause of the early warming remains uncertain. 1377,2007,2,4,Environmental stress decreases survival| growth| and reproduction in New Zealand mussels,To test the effects of environmental stress on mussel growth and reproduction| reciprocal transplants of two New Zealand mussel species| Mytilus galloprovincialis and Perna canaliculus| were performed between the high (high-stress) and low (low-stress) elevation edges of an intertidal mussel bed in New Zealand. Mussels transplanted to the high edge of the mussel bed exhibited slower growth| lower mass of reproductive tissue| and stress-induced spawning| indicating that stress impairs the ability of these organisms to grow and reproduce. P. canaliculus grew more quickly than M. galloprovincialis but allocated less relative energy towards reproduction. An anomalous high aerial temperature event led to differential mortality of the two mussel species in the field| indicating that P. canaliculus is less thermotolerant than M. galloprovincialis. These results suggest that the abundance of P canaliculus| the competitive dominant on New Zealand rocky shores| may decrease in the face of increasing aerial temperatures predicted under global climate change scenarios| drastically altering intertidal community structure. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8122,2007,3,4,Environmental| economic and social analysis of materials for doors and windows in Sri Lanka,This paper compares the environmental| economic and social impacts of two types of doors and windows (elements)| namely timber and aluminum taking into consideration the life cycle perspective. These elements are widely used for the buildings in Sri Lanka. Thus| it will help in the decision-making process when selecting materials for these elements. Major materials used for these elements are timber| brass| glass| paint| aluminum| rubber| steel and PVC boards. Environmental burdens associated with these materials are analyzed in terms of embodied energy| and environmental impacts that are relevant to Sri Lanka| such as global warming (GWP)| acidification (ACP) and nutrient enrichment (NEP). Economic analysis is done using market prices of materials and affordability for those materials. Social concerns such as thermal comfort| good interior (aesthetics)| ability to construct fast| and durability are analyzed based on the data collected through the questionnaires and also| interviews with the stakeholders of the buildings such as engineers| architects| building contractors and building users. It was found that timber elements are superior to aluminum elements in environmental scores (GWP| ACP and NEP). On economic score| also| timber elements are better. But on social score| aluminum elements are better than timber. It was also found that the higher the recycling percentage of aluminum| the higher the environmental favorability of the aluminum. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7960,2007,2,4,Epidemiological determinants in outbreaks of bitter crab disease (Hematodinium sp.) in snow crabs Chionoecetes opilio from Conception Bay| Newfoundland| Canada,Bitter crab disease (BCD) is caused by Hematodinium sp.| an endoparasitic dinoflagellate. It lives within the hemocoeloms of snow crabs Chionoecetes opilio and Tanner crabs C. bairdi| making them unmarketable due to their bitter flavor. Two recent outbreaks of BCD have occurred in Conception Bay| Newfoundland| one from 1999 to 2000 and another from 2003 to 2005. In the earlier outbreak| prevalence was highest in juvenile and primiparous females and juvenile males. It was thought to be highest in these hosts because they molt more frequently than larger males and the disease is transmitted to newly molted crabs. In the 2003 to 2005 outbreak| the prevalence of BCD changed and was at its highest| 24 % in trapped males and 13.5 % in trawled males. This apparent shift in the dynamics of the infection between the earlier 1999 to 2000 and later 2003 to 2005 outbreaks was highly correlated with 2 factors: an increase in bottom temperatures| associated with the recent climatic warming trend in the Northwest Atlantic| and an increase in molting activity of the snow crabs due presumably to the temperature increase within Conception Bay. That is| rising temperatures occurring from 2003 to 2005 likely stimulated molting activity in snow crabs| which led to an increase in susceptible hosts in the population. Given the positive correlation between increased bottom temperature| increased molting activity| and the latest outbreak of BCD| we predict that further trends in climatic warming will enhance transmission| spreading the parasite into additional fishing areas. 7981,2007,3,3,Estimates of the price of hydrogen as a medium for wind and solar sources,The rejection of hydrogen as a solution to global warming by becoming the medium of wind and solar was made when gasoline was priced at $1/gallon. From wind| H-2 would now cost (by electrolysis of water and steam) less than $3 for an amount equivalent in energy to that in a gallon of gasoline ("equivalent"). From solar photovoltaics (pv)| H-2 would be sinking in price between $8 toward $5 equivalent as the efficiency of solar pv increases toward 20%.(1) Solar thermal's present prices offer about one-half the solar pv prices. Prediction of the maximum of the delivery rate of world oil is [Laherre's Oil Production Forecast| 1950-2150. Reprinted with permission from correspondence with William Horvath| U.S. Department of Energy| March 29| 2001] 2010. Future energy sources will develop inexhaustible energies from wind| solar| geothermal| tidal| and wave sources. The common media will be hydrogen and electricity. These sources yield energy at around one-half the cost of nuclear fission. Growing corn to make alcohol involves a net loss of energy and need for a heating mechanism. It(2) may increase the Greenhouse. (C) 2007 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1528,2007,4,4,Estimating organic carbon from loss-on-ignition in northern Arizona forest soils,Many studies in ecology| soil science| and global climate change require accurate estimates of soil organic C (SOC). When calibrated with direct SOC determinations| loss-on-ignition (LOI) has been proposed as a rapid| inexpensive| and accurate method for estimating SOC. We collected 0- to 15- and 15- to 50-cm mineral soil samples from 102 plots within a 110000-ha ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa P & C. Lawson) landscape to develop regression equations between LOI and SOC measured with an elemental C analyzer. We tested nine LOI temperature-duration combinations ranging from 300 to 600 C and 2 to 6 h to discern optimal combinations for estimating SOC| used the optimal combination to develop regressions for 100 samples each of 0- to 15- and 15- to 50-cm depths| and assessed whether stratifying samples into ecosystem types improved LOI-SOC equations. Pearson r(2) values between LOI and SOC did not exceed 0.74 for any LOI temperature-duration combination. These values showed no consistent trend to change with increasing duration| but tended to be slightly higher at the lowest temperature (300 degrees C). Multiple regressions| including LOI and clay concentration| explained only 78 (0-15 cm) and 64% (15-50 cm) of the variation in SOC. Relationships between LOl and SOC found in this study are among the weakest reported in the soil literature| and it remains unclear precisely why observed relationships were weak. Our results suggest that LOI may be useful for roughly estimating SOC in this region| but other methods or modifications to LOI are needed when more accurate SOC measurements are required. 7785,2007,4,4,Estimating polar marine free-air gravity anomalies from dense radar altimeter data,Geological free-air gravity anomalies of the polar marine areas were estimated from dense ERS1 radar altimeter data. Data processing techniques were developed to deal with data gaps from the seasonal ice coverage| directional variations of the ascending and descending orbital data tracks| and other high-latitude mapping problems. To reduce along-track data distortions| the ERS1 168 altimetry data were geodetically co-phased and spectral correlation filtered. Geoid undulations were first estimated and converted to the free-air gravity anomalies by Brun's formula and the fundamental equation of geodesy. The results in the open waters of the Barents and Kara Seas of the Russian Arctic show good coherence with global model and shipborne data| whereas along the coastline| strong ocean currents| possible tidal model inaccuracies| and poor data coverage limit the coherence. The approach uses local satellite altimetry to update reference gravity models in the polar regions. It thus has considerable utility for resolving details of the polar marine gravity field as global warming removes the ice cover and the cross-track distance of altimeter missions decreases. 1387,2007,4,4,Estimation and extrapolation of climate normals and climatic trends,WMO-recommended 30-yr normals are no longer generally useful for the design| planning| and decision-making purposes for which they were intended. They not only have little relevance to the future climate| but are often unrepresentative of the current climate. The reason for this is rapid global climate change over the last 30 yr that is likely to continue into the future. It is demonstrated that simple empirical alternatives already are available that not only produce reasonably accurate normals for the current climate but also often justify their extrapolation to several years into the future. This result is tied to the condition that recent trends in the climate are approximately linear or have a substantial linear component. This condition is generally satisfied for the U. S. climate-division data. One alternative [the optimal climate normal (OCN)] is multiyear averages that are not fixed at 30 yr like WMO normals are but rather are adapted climate record by climate record based on easily estimated characteristics of the records. The OCN works well except with very strong trends or longer extrapolations with more moderate trends. In these cases least squares linear trend fits to the period since the mid-1970s are viable alternatives. An even better alternative is the use of "hinge fit" normals| based on modeling the time dependence of large-scale climate change. Here| longer records can be exploited to stabilize estimates of modern trends. Related issues are the need to avoid arbitrary trend fitting and to account for trends in studies of ENSO impacts. Given these results| the authors recommend that ( a) the WMO and national climate services address new policies for changing climate normals using the results here as a starting point and (b) NOAA initiate a program for improved estimates and forecasts of official U. S. normals| including operational implementation of a simple hybrid system that combines the advantages of both the OCN and the hinge fit. 7741,2007,3,2,European perspective on absorption cooling in a combined heat and power system - A case study of energy utility and industries in Sweden,Mankind is facing an escalating threat of global warming and there is increasing evidence that this is due to human activity and increased emissions of carbon dioxide. Converting from vapour compression chillers to absorption chillers in a combined heat and power (CHP) system is a measure towards sustainability as electricity consumption is replaced with electricity generation. This electricity produced in Swedish CHP-system will substitute marginally produced electricity and as result lower global emissions of carbon dioxide. The use of absorption chillers is limited in Sweden but the conditions are in fact most favourable. Rising demand of cooling and increasing electricity prices in combination with a surplus of heat during the summer in CHP system makes heat driven cooling extremely interesting in Sweden. In this paper we analyse the most cost-effective technology for cooling by comparing vapour compression chillers with heat driven absorption cooling for a local energy utility with a district cooling network and for industries in a Swedish municipality with CHP. Whilst this case is necessarily local in scope| the results have global relevance showing that when considering higher European electricity prices| and when natural gas is introduced| absorption cooling is the most cost-effective solution for both industries and for the energy supplier. This will result in a resource effective energy system with a possibility to reduce global emissions Of CO2 with 80%| a 300% lower system cost| and a 170% reduction of the cost of producing cooling due to revenues from electricity production. The results also show that| with these prerequisites| a decrease in COP of the absorption chillers will not have a negative impact on the cost-effectiveness of the system| due to increased electricity production. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1476,2007,5,4,Eustasy and sea water Sr composition: application to high-resolution Sr-isotope stratigraphy of Miocene shallow-water carbonates,Oceanic (87)Sr/(86)Sr-isotope ratios are strongly influenced by rates of silicate weathering and therefore linked not only to glaciation but also to sea-level change. The present study combines analysis of sequence stratigraphy and basin architecture with Sr-isotope stratigraphy in Miocene shallow-water sediments in southern Portugal and Crete (Greece). The common method is to use smoothed global sea water Sr-isotope reference curves but here a different approach is chosen. Instead| measured Sr-isotope curves are correlated with unsmoothed reference curves by identification of similar fluctuations in the order of several 100 kyr. Transgressive intervals are characterized by increasing Sr-isotope ratios interpreted as corresponding to intensified silicate weathering as a consequence of deglaciation| while lowstand deposits have low Sr-isotope ratios. Comparison of Sr-isotope curves and sedimentary sequences in the studied basins with independent global delta(18)O data and data on global sea-level might suggest a general relationship| supporting a connection to global climate change. Because of these relationships| the method presented herein has a high potential for use in high-resolution age dating and is also applicable in shallow-water sediments. 8304,2007,2,3,Eutrophication of ancient Lake Ohrid: Global warming amplifies detrimental effects of increased nutrient inputs,Lake Ohrid in southeastern Europe is one of the few ancient| long-lived lakes of the world| and contains more than 200 endemic species. On the basis of integrated monitoring of internal and external nutrient fluxes| a progressing eutrophication was detected (similar to 3.5-fold increase in phosphorus (P) concentration in the lake over the past century). The lake is fortunately still oligotrophic| with high concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) in the deep water that are requisite for the unique endemic bottom fauna. Hypolimnetic DO is not only very sensitive to changes in anthropogenic P load-via mineralization of organic material-but also to global warming via decrease of vertical mixing and less frequent complete deep convection. Moreover| these two human effects amplify each other. To keep DO from falling below currently observed minimal levels-given the predicted atmospheric warming of 0.04 degrees C yr(-1)-the P load must be decreased by 50% in coming decades. However| even with such a reduction in P load| anoxia is still expected toward the end of the century if the rate of warming follows predictions. 8051,2007,2,4,Evaluating a high-resolution climate model: Simulated hydrothermal regimes in frozen ground regions and their change under the global warming scenario,[1] An atmosphere-ocean-land coupled global climate model at high horizontal resolution ( similar to 0.5 degrees land mesh) with a five-layer| 4.0 m deep soil was evaluated as a tool to simulate changes in the distribution of frozen ground and subsurface hydrothermal regimes under the global warming scenario. The land scheme explicitly treats soil freezing/thawing processes| surface energy exchange| and water fluxes| including snow cover effects. Modeled soil temperature showed large cold biases in the cold seasons| especially in high latitudes| which likely resulted from shallow and simplified soil column with zero heat flux condition at the bottom and insufficient snow representation. Two types of frozen ground were classified according to monthly soil temperatures: "permafrost'' for regions with the maximum active layer thickness less than 4 m and "seasonally frozen ground.'' Simulated present-day ( 1980 - 1999) distribution is in good agreement with observational estimates for both. Under climatic warming forcing| projected change in land and subterranean hydrothermal regimes shows amplification in higher latitudes. Approximately 60% of the present-day permafrost regions would degrade into seasonally frozen ground by 2100. In the circum-Arctic basins| increased precipitation would lead to a 13.7% increase in freshwater discharge into the Arctic Ocean. The limitations of the current model configuration and the implied reliability of the results are discussed| and the future improvements and potentials of such modeling approach are also presented. A medium-resolution ( similar to 2.8 degrees mesh) ensemble produces qualitatively similar results for the hydrothermal regimes in the cold regions| although some local features were inevitably smoothed out| giving different quantitative estimates. 7971,2007,3,4,Evaluating environmental impacts of the Japanese beef cow-calf system by the life cycle assessment method,The objectives of this study were to evaluate the environmental impacts of a beef cow-calf system using a life cycle assessment (LCA) method and to investigate the effects of scenarios to reduce environmental impacts on the LCA results. The functional unit was defined as one marketed beef calf| and the processes associated with the cow-calf life cycle| such as feed production| feed transport| animal management| the biological activity of the animal and the treatment of cattle waste were included in the system boundary. The present results showed that the total contributions of one beef calf throughout its life cycle to global warming| acidification| eutrophication and energy consumption were 4550 kg of CO2 equivalents| 40.1 kg of SO2 equivalents| 7.0 kg of phosphate (PO4) equivalents and 16.1 GJ| respectively. The contribution of each process to the total environmental impact in each environmental impact category showed a similar tendency to the contribution of each process in each environmental category reported in the case of the beef fattening system as a whole. The results from this analysis showed that shortening calving intervals by 1 month reduced environmental impacts by 5.7-5.8% in all the environmental impact categories examined in the current study| and increasing the number of calves per cow also reduced environmental impacts in all the categories| although the effects were smaller. 8042,2007,3,3,Evaluating the reduction in green house gas emissions achieved by the implementation of the household appliance recycling in Japan,Background| Aim and Scope. The Home Appliance Recycling Law (hereunder referred to as the Law) for used cathode ray tube (CRT) TVs| air conditioners| refrigerators and washing machines was enacted in April 2001 in Japan. The Law requires that retailers reclaim| and manufacturers and importers recycle such home appliances. Consumers are required to pay collection and recycling fees incurred in disposing of any of the four home appliances. Home appliances must| as a general rule| be managed in accordance with the Law. In reality| other routes exist| such as via local authorities| scrap processors| illegal dumping and exporting. At about the time the Law was enacted| the refrigerant used for air conditioners and refrigerators was replaced by more environmentally friendly substances such as isobutene. Local authorities had the responsibility of disposing of the appliances of households before the enactment of the Law. It was general practice for local authorities to dispose of home appliances in landfills after breaking them up and recovering valuable resources such as iron| copper and aluminum. Although they made efforts to recover refrigerant fluorocarbons| there were not required to do so. Materials and Methods. This study analyzed the material flow resulting from the Law and other processing flows to quantify the global warming effect caused by home appliance recycling using the life cycle assessment (LCA) method. To evaluate the Law and to develop policy planning| the challenges of future efforts will be considered using time series data. For these reasons| we have assessed the Project Scenario| which corresponded to the present reality; the Baseline Scenario| which assumed that measures such as the Law were not implemented after 2000| and the Ideal Scenario| where all used products were recycled as prescribed by the Law. The environmental impacts for each scenario were estimated using value| which was obtained from multiplying the amount of reproduction and waste treatment by each inventory data. Results. It is estimated that emission reductions of 4.7E+4 t CO(2)e| subtracted the Project Scenario from the Baseline Scenario| were reduced for TVs in 2001 through recycling. The impact from recycling glass from cathode ray tube (CRT) televisions is significant. An improvement of 2.3E+4 t CO(2)e could be anticipated by upgrading to the Ideal Scenario in 2001. It was estimated that there was a reduction of 9.2E+5 t CO(2)e in 2001 for air conditioners. Although the effect of the recovery for refrigerants contributed greatly| some fluorocarbons that are still discharged have had a considerable impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypothetically| a reduction of 3.2E+6 t CO(2)e could be anticipated with the Ideal Scenario in 2001. A reduction of 2.6E+6 t CO(2)e was achieved for refrigerators in 2001. Although a further reduction can be anticipated through the Ideal Scenario| there will not be much difference with the Project Scenario by 2010. It was estimated that 3.8E+4 t CO(2)e were reduced for washing machines in 2001. Only a small improvement can be expected through the Ideal Scenario. Discussion. Since many assumptions were used in this study| a sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to grasp their impact. The findings of the sensitivity analysis are that the uncertainties are large| but the number of the greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions is still clear except for the difference between the Project Scenario and the Ideal Scenario for TVs. This analysis gives authenticity to the findings. Conclusions. Establishing a system for liquid crystal display and plasma display panel TVs is desirable because the absolute amount of used LCD/PDP TVs will rapidly increase as the usage of CRT TVs rapidly decreases from 2007. With regard to refrigerant recovery from air conditioners| a significant decrease in GHG emissions has been recorded. There is| however| still ample room for improvement. It will be necessary to switch to refrigerants with low global warming potentials (GWPs) or work more on improving the recovery rate in the future. Alternatives and recovery of fluorocarbons from refrigerators contributed greatly to GHG reductions. The GHG emissions from refrigerator recycling will be minimal whether used refrigerator will be processed legally or not because most used refrigerators will contain natural refrigerants in the near future. The improvement for washing machines was low because it was assumed that their main constituent steel has been previously recycled| and that the plastic recycling rate will not change significantly in the future. An improvement in the recycling technology itself is required. This study was carried out on four home appliance products| and it was found that the Home Appliance Recycling Law has brought significant reductions in GHG emissions. There is also room to make GHG reductions through improving the processing methods further. Recommendations and Perspectives. The impact on GHG emissions by fluorocarbons of air conditioners and refrigerators is the greatest. Adequate measures are particularly required for air conditioners that may continue to discharge GHGs in the future. 7954,2007,3,4,Evaluation method on destruction and removal efficiency of perfluorocompounds from semiconductor and display manufacturing,Recently| the semiconductor and display industries have tried to reduce the emissions of perfluorocompounds (PFCs) from the globally environmental regulation. Total amount of PFC emission can be calculated from the flow rate and the partial pressures of PFCs. For the precise measurement of PFC emission amount| the mass flow controlled helium gas was continuously injected into the equipment of which scrubber efficiency is being measured. The partial pressures of PFCs and helium were accurately measured using a mass spectrometer in each sample extracted from inlet and outlet of the scrubber system. ne flow rates are calculated from the partial pressures of helium and also| PFC destruction and removal efficiency (DRE) of the scrubber is calculated from the partial pressure of PFC and the flow rate. Under this method| the relative expanded uncertainties of the flow rate and the partial pressures of PFCs are +/- 2% (k=2) in case the concentrations of NF3 and SF6 are as low as 100/mu mol/mol. 8256,2007,2,4,Evaluation of ammonium and phosphate release from intertidal and subtidal sediments of a shallow coastal lagoon (Ria Formosa-Portugal): A modelling approach,During an annual cycle| overlying water and sediment cores were collected simultaneously at three sites (Tavira| Culatra and Ramalhete) of Ria Formosa's intertidal muddy and subtidal sandy sediments to determine ammonium| nitrates plus nitrites and phosphate. Organic carbon| nitrogen and phosphorus were also determined in superficial sediments. Ammonium and phosphate dissolved in porewater were positively correlated with temperature (P < 0.01) in muddy and sandy sediments| while the nitrogen-oxidized forms had a negative correlation (P < 0.02) in muddy sediments probably because mineralization and nitrification/denitrification processes vary seasonally. Porewater ammonium profiles evidenced a peak in the top-most muddy sediment (380 mu M) suggesting higher mineralization rate when oxygen is more available| while maximum phosphate concentration (113 mu M) occurred in the sub-oxic layer probably due to phosphorus desorption under reduced conditions. In organically poor subtidal sandy sediments| nutrient porewater concentrations were always lower than in intertidal muddy sediments| ranging annually from 20 mu M to 100 mu M for ammonium and from 0.05 mu M to 16 mu M for phosphate. Nutrient diffusive fluxes predicted by a mathematical model were higher during summer| in both muddy (104 nmol cm(-2) d(-1)-NH4+; 8 nmol cm(-2) d(-1)-HPO4-2) and sandy sediments (26 nmol cm(-2) d(-1)--NH4+; 1 nmol cm(-2) d(-1)--HPO4-2)| while during lower temperature periods these fluxes were 3-4 times lower. Based on simulated nutrient effluxes| the estimated annual amount of ammonium and phosphate exported from intertidal areas was three times higher than that released from subtidal areas (22 ton year(-1)--NH4+;2 ton year(-1)--HPO4-2)| emphasizing the importance of tidal flats to maintain the high productivity of the lagoon. Global warming scenarios simulated with the model| revealed that an increase in lagoon water temperature only produces significant variations (P < 0.05) for NH4+ in porewater and consequent diffusive fluxes| what will probably affect the system productivity due to a N/P ratio unbalance. 8355,2007,3,3,Evaluation of energy saving and CO2 emission reduction technologies in energy supply and end-use sectors using a global energy model,Assessments of global warming mitigation technologies are important for achieving the Kyoto target and planning post-Kyoto regimes. Regional differences in energy resources| growth in energy consumption| current technology diffusions| etc.| should be considered in the assessments. A global energy systems model| DNE21+| with high regional resolution had treated the energy supply sectors in a bottom-up fashion and the end-use sectors in a top-down fashion| which was expressed by using long-term price elasticity. However| the assessments of technological options in the end-use sectors are currently more important| particularly for the near and middle terms. In order to evaluate the technological options not only in the energy supply sectors but also in the end-use sectors for energy savings and CO2 emission reductions| DNE21+ has been modified for treating two energy-intensive end-use sectors| i.e. steel and cement sectors| in the bottom-up fashion. The results reveal that the cost-effective global CO2 emission reductions in 2030 for stabilizing the atmospheric CO2 concentration at 550 ppmv in comparison with that in the reference case would be approximately 68 MtC/yr and almost zero in the steel and cement sectors| respectively. The cost-effective options include next-generation coke ovens and coke dry quenching (CDQ) in the steel sector. (c) 2007 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons| Inc. 7792,2007,3,2,Evaluation of environmental burdens caused by changes of food waste management systems in Seoul| Korea,During the last decade| there have been remarkable changes in food waste management in Korea following a ban on direct landfilling. To evaluate the environmental impacts of food waste management systems| we examined individual treatment systems with the LCA approach - landfill| incineration| composting| and feed manufacturing - and estimated the change from 1997 to 2005. The efficient system was different in each impact category| but it was evaluated that landfill is the main contributor to human toxicity and global warming (based on fossil (CO2). In contrast| due to the increase of food waste recycling| acidification| eutrophication| and fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity impact was increased. Especially| the high energy consumption and generated residue in recycling systems caused the large burdens in toxicity categories. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8188,2007,2,4,Evaluation of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment soil moisture simulations for the second half of the twentieth century,Soil moisture trends| particularly during the growing season| are an important possible consequence of global warming. Climate model simulations of future soil moisture changes should be made with models that can produce reliable simulations of soil moisture for past climate changes. In this paper| we compare soil moisture simulations from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate models forced with observed climate forcings for the past century| and evaluate them using in situ soil moisture measurements from over 140 stations or districts in midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. To account for the observed spatial scale of soil moisture variations| we used regionally averaged soil moisture for six regions. The models showed realistic seasonal cycles for Ukraine| Russia| and Illinois| but generally poor seasonal cycles for Mongolia and China. To explore the summer drying issue for the second half of the 20th century| we analyzed the linear trend of soil moisture for Ukraine and Russia. Observations from both regions show increases in summer for the period from 1958-1999 that were larger than most trends in the model simulations. Only two out of 25 model realizations show trends comparable to those of observations. These two trends| however| are due to internal model variability rather than a result of external forcing. Changes in precipitation and temperature cannot fully explain soil moisture increases for Ukraine and Russia| which indicates that other factors might have played a dominant role on the observed patterns for soil moisture. We suggest that changes in solar irradiance (the dimming effect) and resultant changes in evaporative demand explain most of the observed soil moisture trends. To understand such sensitivity| we analyzed soil moisture outputs in a special version of the ECHAM5 model that was capable of capturing the observed radiation pattern as a result of incorporating a sophisticated aerosol scheme. Results suggest that both radiation and precipitation patterns are required to be adequately simulated to reproduce the observed soil moisture trends realistically. 1574,2007,2,4,Evidence for a decadal-scale decline in the growth rates of juvenile scleractinian corals,Juvenile life stages play critical roles in the population dynamics of virtually all organisms| and therefore precise estimates of juvenile growth and survival are important for accurate demographic analyses. For tropical reef corals| the contribution of juveniles to population dynamics is strongly determined by their growth rates| which are inversely proportional to the duration of this life stage and the risks of mortality| yet empirical estimates of this important trait are surprisingly rare. Based largely on results published before 1990| it is often assumed that juvenile corals <= 50 mm diameter grow similar to 10 to 34 mm yr(-1)| and therefore are similar to 1.5 to 5.0 yr old. In contrast| results presented here show that juvenile corals (<= 40 mm diameter) in St. John| US Virgin Islands| have grown at much slower rates on shallow reefs (< 9 m depth) where annual censuses have been completed for 9 yr (1996 to 2005). For nearly a decade| juvenile corals in this location have maintained overall mean growth rates of only 3 mm yr 1| or 6 mm yr 1 for the subset of colonies that grew >= 0 mm yr(-1). Therefore| most of these juvenile corals have grown at rates consistent with an upper age estimate of 7 to 13 yr| which is 1.4 to 8.7 times older than estimates derived from often-cited growth rates. This discrepancy has important implications| because it suggests that the recruitment dynamics of coral populations may function over time scales longer than are usually considered. Conceivably| these time scales may now extend over lengthier periods than once was the case| at least as can be determined from sparse results distributed through > 32 yr of peer-reviewed studies that reveal a gradual decline in the growth rates of juvenile corals. The correspondence of this decline with rising seawater temperature and depressed aragonite saturation state raises the possibility that the effects of global climate change have already reduced the growth of juvenile corals. 1467,2007,3,3,Evidence for carbon sequestration by agricultural liming,[1] Agricultural lime can be a source or a sink for CO2| depending on whether reaction occurs with strong acids or carbonic acid. Here we examine the impact of liming on global warming potential by comparing the sum of Ca2+ and Mg2+ to carbonate alkalinity in soil solutions beneath unmanaged vegetation versus limed row crops| and of streams and rivers in agricultural versus forested watersheds| mainly in southern Michigan. Soil solutions sampled by tension indicated that lime can act as either a source or a sink for CO2. However| infiltrating waters tended to indicate net CO2 uptake| as did tile drainage waters and streams draining agricultural watersheds. As nitrate concentrations increased in infiltrating waters| lime switched from a net CO2 sink to a source| implying nitrification as a major acidifying process. Dissolution of lime may sequester CO2 equal to roughly 25 - 50% of its C content| in contrast to the prevailing assumption that all of the carbon in lime becomes CO2. The similar to 30 Tg/yr of agricultural lime applied in the United States could thus sequester up to 1.9 TgC/ yr| about 15% of the annual change in the U. S. CO2 emissions (12 Tg C/yr for 2002 - 2003). The implications of liming for atmospheric CO2 stabilization should be considered in strategies to mitigate global climate change. 8229,2007,5,4,Evidence for perturbation of the carbon cycle in the Middle Frasnian punctata Zone (Late Devonian),New carbon isotopic data from the Devonian of Ardennes (Belgium) and partly from the Holy Cross Mountains (Poland) highlight an abrupt and high-amplitude negative excursion in the punctata conodont Zone. Published information from Moravia and China suggests that this Middle Frasnian negative excursion| jointly with the preceding large-scale positive shift| should be used as a global chemostratigraphic marker. Causation scenarios for this negative 'punctata Event' are correlated neither with major biota turnover nor major sea-level changes| but may be related to: (1) the Alamo Impact Event| that led to (2) the massive dissociation of methane hydrates and (3) the rapid onset of global warming. 1554,2007,5,3,Evidence of methane release from Blake Ridge ODP Hole 997A during the Plio-Pleistocene: Benthic foraminifer fauna and total organic carbon,Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and may have played a significant role in global climate change in the geological past. Destabilization of gas hydrates| frozen methane stored within the ocean floor sediment and in permafrost| may have provided an important source of methane to the atmosphere. Ocean Drilling Program Hole 997A (water depth 2770 m)| situated on the crest of the Blake Outer Ridge| is a potentially large reservoir of gas hydrate. Methane emissions from the Blake Outer Ridge have been reported previously| which has been suggested as a driver for global climate change. Methane at this site is of biogenic origin| produced by the bacterial decomposition of organic matter. We used benthic foraminifer faunal assemblages (> 125 mu m size fraction) and species diversity| combined with total organic carbon data from Hole 997A| to identify intervals of methane releases during the late Neogene (last 5.4 Ma). We identified a group of benthic foraminifera| which were taken to indicate methane fluxes based on previous work on seep-related benthic foraminifera. We then classified 'seep-related' benthic foraminifera| as well as high organic carbon taxa independent of deep-sea oxygenation. We recognized five intervals of increased abundance of the seep-related benthic foraminifera since last 3.6 Ma representing intervals of methane release| which coincide with intervals of lowered sea level. Changes in benthic foraminifera are more abrupt over the past 3.6 Ma when the northern hemisphere glaciation began to intensify and climate switched to a 41-kyr cycle world. 8338,2007,5,5,Evolution of the Earth's global climate,The model of the Earth's climate change described here is based on the Earth's global evolution theory and adiabatic theory of the greenhouse effect. The main factor determining climate's temperature parameters is the atmospheric pressure. Glaciations at the end of Paleozoic-Phanerozoic time occurred due to a gradual atmospheric pressure decline as a result of nitrogen consumption by the nitrogen-consuming bacteria that removed nitrogen from the atmosphere and concentrated it in sediments. A warm period in the second half of Mesozoic was associated with the formation of the Pangaea supercontinent and intensified oxygen generation| which compensated for the lowered nitrogen partial pressure. 7828,2007,2,4,Evolution of total net fitness in thermal lines: Drosophila subobscura likes it 'warm',Fisher's fundamental theorem states that heritable variation for net fitness sets a limit to the rate of response to natural selection. How will temperate (i.e. cold-tolerant) species cope with contemporary rapid global warming? Using three-fold replicated lines of Drosophila subobscura that had been allowed to evolve for 4 years (between 32 and 59 generations) at 13 degrees C (cold)| 18 degrees C (the supposed optimum temperature)| and 22 degrees C (warm) I assess here how net fitness changes according to thermal environments. Net fitness was estimated following the classical approach in population genetics of competing over a number of generation in outbred experimental populations multiple wild-type O chromosomes (homologous to arm 3R in D. melanogaster) independently derived from each base thermal stock in an otherwise homogeneous genetic background against a balancer chromosome. Warm-adapted populations ('warm-adapted O chromosomes') performed comparatively well at all tested temperatures. However| net fitness was severely reduced in cold-adapted populations when transferred to warmer conditions. It seems| therefore| that thermal fitness breath for D. subobscura flies is positively associated to temperature. These findings are discussed in relation to the fast world-wide clinal shifts in the frequency of genetic markers correlated with current climate change. 1516,2007,2,4,Evolutionary aspects of climate-induced changes and the need for multidisciplinarity,An integrated view on the possible effects of global climate change is provided while taking into account that not only the rising average temperature is likely to impact natural populations but also that increased variation around the mean and higher frequency of extreme events will be important. We propose that complex genetic effects in concert with demographic patterns may affect how focal populations react to the environmental challenge in an adaptive way (if they can). In order to aim for an inclusive picture of the ongoing environmental change we argue for a synthesis of knowledge from a range of 'classical' disciplines such as quantitative genetics| conservation genetics and population ecology. A hereto little exposed concern is the importance of the increase in amplitude of environmental fluctuations and how the corresponding evolutionary and ecological reactions are expected to occur. Due to the complex interactions between the ecological and genetic mechanisms in the response to climate-induced impacts interdisciplinary approaches are the most promising path in seeking knowledge about the present and future changes in the biosphere. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7766,2007,5,4,Examination of diatom-based changes from a climatically sensitive prairie lake (Saskatchewan| Canada) at different temporal perspectives,Paleoclimatic records from the climatically sensitive Canadian prairies are relatively rare due to the scarcity of study sites with continuous Holocene stratigraphic sequences. Oro Lake| a meromictic lake in the dry grasslands of Saskatchewan (Canada)| contains a continuous Holocene diatom record spanning the last similar to 10|000 years. Here we present analyses at three different time scales and resolution: (1) 1-3 yr resolution of the past similar to 80 years| (2) century-scale analysis of the Holocene| and (3) decadal-scale analysis of the past similar to 7000 years. Recent changes in the diatom assemblages and their respective salinity inferences were significantly related to measured effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation| P-ET). The droughts of the 1930s| and a wet period during the 1950s are clearly evident in the diatom record| suggesting the Oro Lake record contains a sensitive archive of past climatic conditions. Century-scale analysis of the diatom record during the Holocene is consistent with a cool and moist climate in the early Holocene (prior to ca 9700cal yr BP| 8600 C-14 yr BP). An abrupt increase in diatom-inferred salinity at 9600 cal yr BP (8500 C-14 yr BP) indicates the onset of an and climate| with continuing and conditions throughout the mid-Holocene. Decadal-scale analysis of the past similar to 7000 years suggests that the mid-Holocene was more complex| with extended periods of increased variability in precipitation| particularly between ca 5800-3600 cal yr BP (5000-3200 C-14 yr BP) which is characterized by intervals of increased effective moisture. The past similar to 2000 years is characterized by reduced salinities and generally wetter conditions in comparison to the mid-Holocene. The combination of the different scales of analyses in this study provides a detailed account of the dynamic nature of climate from sub-decadal to millennial scale in the Oro Lake region within the Palliser Triangle. Climate model predictions suggest that the Canadian prairie region may see a higher frequency of extreme droughts under projected global warming| potentially similar to the most and periods seen during the mid-Holocene when many lake basins completely dried out. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7928,2007,3,3,Exergetic and sustainability aspects of green energy systems,This paper discusses current environmental problems caused by energy utilization| energy-use patterns| and the role of green (renewable) energy systems as one of the potential solutions to challenging environmental problems| particularly global warming. It also presents some key aspects of green energy systems in terms of energy| exergy| environmental impact| and sustainable development and their linkages. The results show that assessments of green energy processes and systems though exergy analysis are essential to increase efficiency and decrease environmental impact| and hence contribute to sustainable development. 8185,2007,4,4,Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming,A consistent weakening and poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation is diagnosed in the climate change simulations of the IPCC AR4 project. Associated with this widening is a poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zone. Simple scaling analysis supports the notion that the poleward extent of the Hadley cell is set by the location where the thermally driven jet first becomes baroclinically unstable. The expansion of the Hadley cell is caused by an increase in the subtropical static stability| which pushes poleward the baroclinic instability zone and hence the outer boundary of the Hadley cell. 1455,2007,3,3,Experimental studies on homogeneous charge CI engine fueled with LPG using DEE as an ignition enhancer,Producing and using renewable fuels for transportation is one approach for sustainable energy future for the world. A renewable fuel contributes lesser global climate change. The present work reports on the utilization of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) as a primary fuel with diethyl ether (DEE) as an ignition enhancer in a direct injection diesel engine. LPG has a simpler hydrocarbon structure than conventional fuels. DEE is recently reported as a renewable fuel and to be a low-emission high-quality diesel fuel replacement. A single cylinder| four-stroke| water-cooled naturally aspirated DI diesel engine having rated output of 3.7 kW at 1500 rpm was used for the experiments. Measurements were made to study the performance| combustion and emissions characteristics. From the results| it is observed that| the brake thermal efficiency lower by about 23% at full load with a reduction of about 65% NO emission than the diesel operation. The maximum reduction in smoke and particulate emissions is observed to be about 85% and 89%| respectively| when compared to that of diesel operation| however an increase in CO and HC emissions was observed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7918,2007,3,4,Experimental study on the potential application of cottonseed oil-diesel blends as fuels for automotive diesel engines,This paper presents the results of an experimental study on the direct application of cottonseed oil-diesel blends as fuel for diesel engine vehicles without using additional retrofit mechanical systems. The use of biofuels is one of the main actions promoted by the European Union and member states in an effort to tackle global warming| enhance energy security and contribute to regional development. Here| the possibility to blend cottonseed oil directly with fossil diesel as a fuel for diesel engines is examined. This option has lower cost and larger well-to-wheel greenhouse gas benefits than fatty acid methylesters. The paper presents measurements of important fuel properties| density| viscosity| cetane number and cold flow characteristics. In addition| a common rail Euro 3 compliant diesel car is tested using 10% v/v cottonseed oil-diesel blends in order to examine the effects on performance and emissions of regulated pollutants and CO2. Furthermore| particle emission characteristics are studied| including total and solid particle number concentrations and particle size distributions over driving cycles and steady state modes. The results indicate that the test fuel presents good operating characteristics and limited effects on regulated emissions and vehicle performance. These results would justify further research on the direct use of vegetable oils as automotive fuels. 1471,2007,4,4,Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change,We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC| its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4xCO(2) scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K| eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero| three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature| precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program| with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling| would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC. 1551,2007,2,3,Exploring linkages between abiotic oceanographic processes and a top-trophic predator in an Antarctic ecosystem,Climatic variation affects the physical and biological components of ecosystems| and global-climate models predict enhanced sensitivity in polar regions| raising concern for Antarctic animal populations that may show direct responses to changes in sea-ice distribution and extent| or indirect responses to changes in prey distribution and abundance. Here| we show that over a 30-year period in the Ross Sea| average weaning masses of Weddell seals| Leptonychotes weddellii| varied strongly among years and were correlated to large-scale climatic and oceanographic variations. Foraging success of pregnant seals (reflected by weaning mass the following pupping season) increased during summers characterized by reduced sea-ice cover and positive phases of the southern oscillation. These results demonstrate a correlation between environmental variation and an important life history characteristic (weaning mass) of an Antarctic marine mammal. Understanding the mechanisms that link climatic variation and animal life history characteristics will contribute to understanding both population dynamics and global climatic processes. For the world's most southerly distributed mammal species| the projected trend of increasing global climate change raises concern because increasing sea-ice trends in the Ross Sea sector of Antarctica will likely reduce populations due to reduced access to prey as expressed through declines in body condition and reproductive performance. 1459,2007,3,4,Exploring policy strategies for mitigating HFC emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning,The growing demand for cooling throughout the world| possibly increased by global climate change| requires the implementation of policies to mitigate the related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy and refrigerant use in the refrigeration and air conditioning (RAC) sector. This article aims to contribute to the discussion on strategies to reduce HFC emissions from RAC by looking at their different temporal effects| caused by stock-flow dynamics. From scenario modeling| we find that containment strategies are often most effective in reducing HFC emissions in the short run| whereas phase out strategies have more potential in the long run. Further findings suggest that early and quick implementation of phase out strategies could lead to important reductions in cumulative HFC emissions| because stock build up is prevented. This timing effect is less pronounced for containment strategies. Lastly| emissions from disposal| if unabated| can lead to equally large emissions annually as those from use. Preference for several short-term benefits of containment strategies might lead to sub optimal emission reduction strategies| endangering long term GHG emission reduction. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1448,2007,3,3,Exploring socioeconomic impacts of forest based mitigation projects: Lessons from Brazil and Bolivia,This paper aims to contribute new insights globally and regionally on how carbon forest mitigation contributes to sustainable development in South America. Carbon finance has emerged as a potential policy option to tackling global climate change| degradation of forests| and social development in poor countries. This paper focuses on evaluating the socioeconomic impacts of a set of forest based mitigation pilot projects that emerged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The paper reviews research conducted in 2001-2002| drawing from empirical data from four pilot projects| derived from qualitative stakeholder interviews| and complemented by policy documents and literature. Of the four projects studied three are located in frontier areas| where there are considerable pressures for conversion of standing forest to agriculture. in this sense| forest mitigation projects have a substantial role to play in the region. Findings suggest however| that all four projects have experienced cumbersome implementation processes specifically| due to weak social objectives| poor communication| as well as time constraints. In three out of four cases| stakeholders highlighted limited local acceptance at the implementation stages. In the light of these findings| we discuss opportunities for implementation of future forest based mitigation projects in the land use sector. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 8328,2007,3,3,Exposure to carbon dioxide-rich seawater is stressful for some deep-sea species: an in situ| behavioral study,Since the beginning of the industrial revolution| the concentration of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from 275 to 370 ppm; the increase is thought to have caused much of the rise in global temperature that has occurred during the same period. A means of mitigating its effects is to collect industrial carbon dioxide and sequester it in the deep ocean. Knowledge of effects of such sequestration on deep-sea organisms is crucial to evaluation of the wisdom of deep-ocean sequestration. We therefore tested deep-sea animals for indications that exposure to carbon dioxide-rich seawater is stressful| Our study site was at 3087 rn depth off the coast of central California (36 degrees 41.91'N| 123 degrees 0.14' W). We deployed liquid carbon dioxide in open-topped containers on the sea floor. The carbon dioxide reacted with the carbonate system in the overlying seawater| and carbon dioxide-rich seawater flowed out onto the sediment. We placed inverted funnel traps near the containers and similar to 75 rn away from them. Measurements of pH confirmed that the area near the containers was exposed to carbon dioxide-rich seawater. As a test taxon| we chose harpacticoid copepods. The traps near the source of the carbon dioxide-rich seawater caught significantly more harpacticoids than those far from it. The harpacticoids apparently attempted to escape from the advancing front of carbon dioxide-rich seawater and therefore presumably found exposure to it to be stressful. 7727,2007,2,4,Factors influencing route choice by avian migrants: A dynamic programming model of Pacific brant migration,We used stochastic dynamic programming to investigate a spectacular migration strategy in the black brant Branta bernicla nigricans| a species of goose. Black brant migration is well suited for theoretical analysis since there are a number of existing strategies that easily can be compared. In early autumn| almost the entire population of the black brant gathers at Izembek Lagoon on the Alaska Peninsula to stage and refuel before the southward migration. There are at least three distinct strategies| with most geese making a spectacular direct migration more than 5000 km across the Gulf of Alaska to their wintering grounds in southern Baja California or mainland Mexico. This is a potentially dangerous strategy since foraging is not possible during the overseas passage. Some individuals instead use shorter flights to make a detour along the coast| a longer route that all individuals use for northwards migration in spring. Since flight costs accelerate with increasing body mass| migration by short flights is energetically cheaper than long-distance flights. A small but increasing part of the population has recently begun to winter at Izembek. We investigated this migration under two different suppositions using a dynamic state variable model. First| if the geese are free to make a strategic choice| under what assumptions should they prefer direct migration and under what assumptions should they prefer detour migration/winter residency? Second| provided that the dominating direct migration strategy is optimal| what conditions will force the geese to go for detour migration/winter residency? In the second case the geese may try to follow an optimal direct migration strategy| but stochastic events may force them to choose a suboptimal policy. We also simulated possible effects of global warming. The model suggests that the fuel level at arrival in Izembek and fuel gain rates are key factors and that tail winds must have been reliable in the past| otherwise direct migration could not have evolved. It also suggests that a change to milder winters may promote an unexpectedly abrupt change from long-distance to short-distance migration or winter residency. Finally| it produced a number of predictions that might be testable in the field. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8136,2007,3,3,Feasibility of CO2 compressors for light commercial appliances,Commercial refrigerating systems are mostly based on hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) fluids. The Kyoto Protocol requirements encouraged the promotion of policies for sustainable development and reduction of global warming potential| including the regulation of HCFCs. In that sense| R-744 is the only natural refrigerant replacement known to be nontoxic| nonflammable| and not harmful to the environment. The aim of this work is to aid in the development of new reciprocating compressors for light commercial applications that use CO2 as the fluid refrigerant. First| a numerical analysis and experimental validation were developed and carried out| not only for laboratory compressor prototypes| but also for the whole transcritical CO2 cycle. The numerical comparative results present a reasonably good agreement and successfully allow the use of these numerical tools to improve the successive designs. Consequently| several compressor pre-industrial prototypes have been designed| validated| and improved. The experimental results against standard compressors show the possibilities that CO2 compressors offer in terms of efficiency and COP. Finally| an appliance test is presented to check the performance of the overall system and confirm the preliminary results obtained in the calorimeter tests. The appliance platform results prove the feasibility of these light commercial applications using R-744 as the fluid refrigerant. 7788,2007,3,4,Feeding farmed salmon: Is organic better?,Feed provision accounts for the majority of material and energetic inputs and emissions associated with net-pen salmon farming. Understanding and reducing the environmental impacts of feed production is therefore central to improving the biophysical sustainability of salmon farming as a whole. We used life cycle assessment (with co-product allocation by gross energy content) to compare the cradle-to-mill gate life cycle energy use| biotic resource use| and global warming| acidifying| eutrophying and aquatic ecotoxiticy impacts associated with producing ingredients for four hypothetical feeds for conventional and organic salmon aquaculture in order to assess the benefits| if any| associated with a transition to organic feed use. Fish and poultry-derived ingredients generated substantially greater impacts than crop-derived ingredients. Despite the fact that organic crop ingredients had markedly lower life cycle impacts compared to equivalent conventional ingredients| substituting organic for conventional crop ingredients therefore resulted in only minor reductions to the total impacts of feed production because the benefits of this substitution were effectively overwhelmed by the much larger impacts associated with animal-derived ingredients. Replacing fish meals/oils from dedicated reduction fisheries with fisheries by-product meals/oils markedly increased the environmental impacts of feed production| largely due to the higher energy intensity of fisheries for human consumption| and low meal/oil yield rates of fisheries by-products. Environmental. impacts were considerably lower when feeds contained reduced proportions of fish and poultry-derived ingredients. These results indicate that current standards for organic salmon aquaculture| which stipulate the use of organic crop ingredients and fisheries by-product meals and oils| fail to reduce the environmental impacts of feed production for the suite of impact categories considered in this study. This information should be of interest to feed producers and aquaculturists concerned with improving the biophysical sustainability of their products| and bodies responsible for aquaculture certification| ecolabeling| and consumer awareness programs. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1388,2007,2,4,Fire as the dominant driver of central Canadian boreal forest carbon balance,Changes in climate| atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and fire regimes have been occurring for decades in the global boreal forest(1-3)| with future climate change likely to increase fire frequency(4)-the primary disturbance agent in most boreal forests(3|5). Previous attempts to assess quantitatively the effect of changing environmental conditions on the net boreal forest carbon balance have not taken into account the competition between different vegetation types on a large scale(6-9). Here we use a process model with three competing vascular and non-vascular vegetation types to examine the effects of climate| carbon dioxide concentrations and fire disturbance on net biome production| net primary production and vegetation dominance in 100 Mha of Canadian boreal forest. We find that the carbon balance of this region was driven by changes in fire disturbance from 1948 to 2005. Climate changes affected the variability| but not the mean| of the landscape carbon balance| with precipitation exerting a more significant effect than temperature. We show that more frequent and larger fires in the late twentieth century resulted in deciduous trees and mosses increasing production at the expense of coniferous trees. Our model did not however exhibit the increases in total forest net primary production that have been inferred from satellite data(1|10). We find that poor soil drainage decreased the variability of the landscape carbon balance| which suggests that increased climate and hydrological changes have the potential to affect disproportionately the carbon dynamics of these areas. Overall| we conclude that direct ecophysiological changes resulting from global climate change have not yet been felt in this large boreal region. Variations in the landscape carbon balance and vegetation dominance have so far been driven largely by increases in fire frequency. 1558,2007,4,4,First direct observation of the atmospheric CO2 year-to-year increase from space,The reliable prediction of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated global climate change requires an adequate understanding of the CO2 sources and sinks. The sparseness of the existing surface measurement network limits current knowledge about the global distribution of CO2 surface fluxes. The retrieval of CO2 total vertical columns from satellite observations is predicted to improve this situation. Such an application however requires very high accuracy and precision. We report on retrievals of the columnaveraged CO2 dry air mole fraction| denoted XCO2| from the near-infrared nadir spectral radiance and solar irradiance measurements of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument between 2003 and 2005. We focus on northern hemispheric large scale CO2 features such as the CO2 seasonal cycle and show - for the first time - that the atmospheric annual increase of CO2 can be directly observed using satellite measurements of the CO2 total column. The satellite retrievals are compared with global XCO2 obtained from NOAA's CO2 assimilation system CarbonTracker taking into account the spatio-temporal sampling and altitude sensitivity of the satellite data. We show that the measured CO2 year-to-year increase agrees within about 1 ppm/year with CarbonTracker. We also show that the latitude dependent amplitude of the northern hemispheric CO2 seasonal cycle agrees with CarbonTracker within about 2 ppm with the retrieved amplitude being systematically larger. The analysis demonstrates that it is possible using satellite measurements of the CO2 total column to retrieve information on the atmospheric CO2 on the level of a few parts per million.
8065,2007,5,4,Flood/drought change of last millennium in the Yangtze Delta and its possible connections with Tibetan climatic changes,Flood/drought series during the past 1000 yrs in the Yangtze Delta| China| was reconstructed based on historical documents and local chronologies. Continuous wavelet transform was applied to detect the periodicity and variability of the flood/drought series. Research results indicate that: (1) Larger fluctuations of climatic changes in the Tibetan Plateau result in higher wavelet variance of flood/drought in the Yangtze Delta| for example| during 1400-1700| the proxy indicators indicate that the annual temperature in Tibet experienced larger variability and that this time interval exactly corresponds to the time when the higher and significant wavelet variance occurred; (2) Periods featured by colder temperature in the Tibetan Plateau usually correspond to periods characterized by higher wetness with higher probability of flood events; (3) Variability of heating features of the Tibetan Plateau exerted great influences on intensity and onset of Indian monsoon and south Asian summer monsoon| and these atmospheric activities are in direct connection with precipitation in Eastern China. Current global warming may alter the snow mass of Tibetan Plateau and then alters the heating features of Tibetan Plateau| which may in turn impact flood/drought conditions in the Yangtze Delta. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 8060,2007,2,4,Fluxes of carbon dioxide| methane and nitrous oxide in two contrastive fringing zones of coastal lagoon| Lake Nakaumi| Japan,We measured fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2)| methane (CH4)| and nitrous oxide (N2O) simultaneously in two typical fringing zones| sandy shore and salt marsh| of coastal lagoon| Lake Nakaumi| Japan| in mid-summer 2003. Our aim was to quantify net the greenhouse gases (GHGs) fluxes and examine key factors| which control variation of the GHGs fluxes in the two sites. Net CO2 and CH4 fluxes were markedly different between the two sites; magnitudes and variations of the both fluxes in sandy shore were lower than those of salt marsh. Meanwhile| magnitude and variation of net N2O flux in the two sites were similar. In sandy shore| temporal and spatial variation of the three GHGs fluxes were highly controlled by water level fluctuation derived from astronomic tide. In salt marsh| spatial variation of the three GHGs fluxes were correlated with aboveground biomass| and temporal variation of CO2 and CH4 fluxes were correlated with soil temperature. The sum of global warming potential| which was roughly estimated using the observed GHGs fluxes| was ca. 174-fold higher in salt marsh than in sandy shore. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8207,2007,3,3,Fluxes of methane and nitrous oxide in water-saving rice production in North China,Lowland rice production is currently facing serious water shortages in numerous Asian countries. In the North China Plain water limitations are severe. Water-saving rice production techniques are therefore increasingly searched for. Here we present the first study of trace gas emissions from a water-saving rice production system where soils are mulched and are kept close to field capacity in order to compare their contribution to global warming with traditional paddy rice. In a two-year field experiment close to Beijing| CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes were monitored in two forms of the Ground Cover Rice Production System (GCRPS) and in traditional paddy fields using closed chambers. With paddy rice the observed CH(4) emissions were very low| about 0.3 g CH(4) m(-2) a(-1) in 2001 and about 1 g CH(4) m(-2) a(-1) in 2002. In GCRPS| the CH(4) emissions were negligible. N(2)O fluxes in GCRPS were similar| 0.5 to 0.6 g N(2)O m(-2) a(-1) in 2001 and 2002| and emission peaks mainly followed fertilizer applications. In paddy rice| N(2)O fluxes were unexpectedly low throughout the year 2001 (0.03 g N(2)O m(-2) a(-1))| and in 2002 larger emissions occurred during the drainage period. So with 0.4 g N(2)O m(-2) a(-1) the cumulative flux was similar to emissions in GCRPS. Total CO(2) equivalent fluxes calculated according to IPCC methodology were tenfold higher in GCRPS compared to paddy in 2001. In 2002| fluxes from both systems were similar with 175 and 141 g CO(2) equivalents m(-2) a(-1) from GCRPS and paddy. 1376,2007,2,4,Food supplementation and timing of reproduction: does the responsiveness to supplementary information vary with latitude?,Food supplementation usually advances the timing of laying. Here| we report a meta-analysis of 35 food supplementation studies demonstrating that species at high latitudes are less responsive to food supplementation than those at lower latitudes. Because the length of the breeding season varies with latitude| species at high latitudes may rely mostly upon photic cues and be less responsive to other environmental information. Lower latitude species| where times suitable for breeding vary from year-to-year| are predicted to be more responsive to "supplementary'' information to adjust reproduction to coincide with conditions that favor the successful rearing of young. Studies by Wingfield et al. (Gen Comp Endocrinol 101: 242-255| 1996; Gen Comp Endocrinol 107: 44 62| 1997; Gen Comp Endocrinol 131: 143-158| 2003) suggest a physiological underpinning to this reduced responsiveness to supplementary information in high-latitude species. Given that temperature increases resulting from global climate change are most pronounced at high latitude| reduced plasticity to respond to these changes in individuals of high-latitude species could cause high-latitude breeders to be poorly synchronized with a resource base that emerges earlier than usual. If high-latitude breeders indeed lack sufficient individual-level plasticity to cope effectively with climate fluctuations| effective optimization of reproductive timing in a rapidly changing environment would require similarly rapid evolutionary change. It remains to be seen whether this will be possible. 7754,2007,3,3,Forecasting based on sectoral energy consumption of GHGs in Turkey and mitigation policies,Recently| global warming and its effects have become one of the most important themes in the world. Under the Kyoto Protocol| the EU has agreed to an 8% reduction in its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2008-2012. The GHG emissions (total GHG| CO(2)| CO| SO(2)| NO(2)| E (emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds)) covered by the Protocol are weighted by their global warming potentials (GWPs) and aggregated to give total emissions in CO(2) equivalents. The main subject in this study is to obtain equations by the artificial neural network (ANN) approach to predict the GHGs of Turkey using sectoral energy consumption. The equations obtained are used to determine the future level of the GHG and to take measures to control the share of sectors in total emission. According to ANN results| the maximum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was found as 0.147151| 0.066716| 0.181901| 0.105146| 0.124684| and 0.158157 for GHG| SO(2)| NO(2)| CO| E| and CO(2)| respectively| for the training data with Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm by 8 neurons. R(2) values are obtained very close to 1. Also| this study proposes mitigation policies for GHGs. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8211,2007,4,4,Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity,The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing| but current methods for forecasting have limitations. in this article| we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually| (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically| by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist)| (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere models| and (4) specics-area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods| we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming| during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems. 1445,2007,3,4,Forest soil CO(2) flux: uncovering the contribution and environmental responses of ectomycorrhizas,Forests play a critical role in the global carbon cycle| being considered an important and continuing carbon sink. However| the response of carbon sequestration in forests to global climate change remains a major uncertainty| with a particularly poor understanding of the origins and environmental responses of soil CO(2) efflux. For example| despite their large biomass| the contribution of ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi to forest soil CO(2) efflux and responses to changes in environmental drivers has| to date| not been quantified in the field. Their activity is often simplistically included in the 'autotrophic' root respiration term. We set up a multiplexed continuous soil respiration measurement system in a young Lodgepole pine forest| using a mycorrhizal mesh collar design| to monitor the three main soil CO(2) efflux components: root| extraradical mycorrhizal hyphal| and soil heterotrophic respiration. Mycorrhizal hyphal respiration increased during the first month after collar insertion and thereafter remained remarkably stable. During autumn the soil CO(2) flux components could be divided into similar to 60% soil heterotrophic| similar to 25% EM hyphal| and similar to 15% root fluxes. Thus the extraradical EM mycelium can contribute substantially more to soil CO(2) flux than do roots. While EM hyphal respiration responded strongly to reductions in soil moisture and appeared to be highly dependent on assimilate supply| it did not responded directly to changes in soil temperature. It was mainly the soil heterotrophic flux component that caused the commonly observed exponential relationship with temperature. Our results strongly suggest that accurate modelling of soil respiration| particularly in forest ecosystems| needs to explicitly consider the mycorrhizal mycelium and its dynamic response to specific environmental factors. Moreover| we propose that in forest ecosystems the mycorrhizal CO(2) flux component represents an overflow 'CO(2) tap' through which surplus plant carbon may be returned directly to the atmosphere| thus limiting expected carbon sequestration from trees under elevated CO(2). 7927,2007,3,3,Fuel ethanol production from Indian agriculture - Opportunities and constraints,Fuel ethanol use is being encouraged in many countries| including India| to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and to reduce local pollution and greenhouse gas emissions| as well as to provide support to stagnating sugarcane-based industries. Indian public policy is to use a blend of 10% ethanol with petrol within the next few years. This translates into a large requirement for fuel ethanol. This paper examines the potential suitability of various carbohydrate-based agri-resources for ethanol production in India| and the resources required for this in different agroclimatic regions. The results show that sugarcane has the highest ethanol potential| followed by cassava| potato and cereals. On the basis of growing time (days) in the field| however| the large differences among crops disappear and their ranking at state and district level also changes. It was calculated that the biomass as well as land requirement for fuel ethanol for 2010-11 in India would be small| taking into account the total food grain production and land used for agriculture. Utilization of only 3-7 million tons of damaged food grains or surplus food stocks could meet the requirement for fuel ethanol up to 2010. This may| however| involve trade-offs with food security. Agricultural residues| especially rice straw| currently burnt in north-western India| and causing air pollution and global warming| could be a useful and cheap resource| if the technology for cellulose conversion is made available and is cost-effective. A proper auditing of costs involved in producing biomass for gasohol| their implications for energy security and the environment| and trade-offs with food security is required for policy consideration. 8228,2007,2,4,Further evidence of the effects of global warming on lichens| particularly those with Trentepohlia phycobionts,increasing evidence suggests that lichens are responding to climate change in Western Europe. More epiphytic species appear to be increasing| rather than declining| as a result of global warming. Many terricolous species| in contrast| are declining. Changes to epiphytic floras are markedly more rapid in formerly heavily polluted| generally built-up or open rural areas| as compared to forested regions. Both the distribution (southern) and ecology (warmth-loving) of the newly established or increasing species seem to be determined by global warming. Epiphytic temperate to boreo-montane species appear to be relatively unaffected. Vacant niches caused by other environmental changes are showing the most pronouced effects of global warming. Species most rapidly increasing in forests| although taxonomically unrelated| all contain Trentepohlia as phycobiont in addition to having a southern distribution. This suggests that in this habitat| Trentepohlia algae| rather than the different lichen symbioses| are affected by global warming. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1443,2007,2,4,Future climate scenarios and rainfall-runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain),Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies| drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used| but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak How estimation. These types of models| together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios| can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego| which is important for the future management of the system. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7970,2007,4,3,Future projections in precipitation over Asia simulated by two RCMs nested into MRI-CGCM2.2,We statistically analyzed both the reproducibility of the present climate| and future climate projections in the Asian monsoon region| using two Regional Climate Models (RCMs)| nested into the MRI-CGCM2.2 to assess regional climate projections associated with global warming. Both GCM-RCM systems reproduced the present regional surface air temperature well. Also| they indicated about the same temperature increases as that of GCM for all regions over the Asian continent. The reproducibility of the present-climate precipitation amounts| in the lower-latitude regions was not as good as that of the surface air temperature| although it was better simulated in the higher-latitude regions. The future precipitation increase was not statistically significant. It was also statistically revealed that precipitation in future projections| with GCM-RCM systems| tended to converge in regions where the model biases were small. This result suggests the importance of an accurate reproduction of the present regional climate using physically based dynamical models| in order to analyze regional climate changes. 1446,2007,2,4,Genetic quality of individuals impacts population dynamics,Ample evidence exists that an increase in the inbreeding level of a population reduces the value of fitness components such as fecundity and survival. It does not follow| however| that these decreases in the components of fitness impact population dynamics in a way that increases extinction risk| because virtually all species produce far more offspring than can actually survive. We analyzed the effects of the genetic quality (mean fitness) of individuals on the population growth rate of seven natural populations in each of two species of wolf spider in the genus Rabidosa| statistically controlling for environmental factors. We show that populations of different sizes| and different inbreeding levels| differ in population dynamics for both species. Differences in population growth rates are especially pronounced during stressful environmental conditions (low food availability) and the stressful environment affects smaller populations (< 500 individuals) disproportionately. Thus| even in an invertebrate with an extremely high potential growth rate and strong density-dependent mortality rates| genetic factors contribute directly to population dynamics and| therefore| to extinction risk. This is only the second study to demonstrate an impact of the genetic quality of individual genotypes on population dynamics in a wild population and the first to document strong inbreeding-environment interactions for fitness among populations. Endangered species typically exist at sizes of a few hundred individuals and human activities degrade habitats making them innately more stressful (e.g. global climate change). Therefore| the interaction between genetic factors and environmental stress has important implications for efforts aimed at conserving the Earth's biodiversity. 1509,2007,4,4,GeoChip: a comprehensive microarray for investigating biogeochemical| ecological and environmental processes,Owing to their vast diversity and as-yet uncultivated status| detection| characterization and quantification of microorganisms in natural settings are very challenging| and linking microbial diversity to ecosystem processes and functions is even more difficult. Microarray-based genomic technology for detecting functional genes and processes has a great promise of overcoming such obstacles. Here| a novel comprehensive microarray| termed GeoChip| has been developed| containing 24 243 oligonucleotide ( 50 mer) probes and covering 410 000 genes in 4150 functional groups involved in nitrogen| carbon| sulfur and phosphorus cycling| metal reduction and resistance| and organic contaminant degradation. The developed GeoChip was successfully used for tracking the dynamics of metal-reducing bacteria and associated communities for an in situ bioremediation study. This is the first comprehensive microarray currently available for studying biogeochemical processes and functional activities of microbial communities important to human health| agriculture| energy| global climate change| ecosystem management| and environmental cleanup and restoration. It is particularly useful for providing direct linkages of microbial genes/populations to ecosystem processes and functions. 7897,2007,5,4,Geodynamic impact on the stable isotope signatures in a shallow epicontinental sea,Analyses were made of a mollusc-based meta dataset of 859 delta C-13 and delta O-18 data of Miocene nearshore settings in the European Paratethys Sea and its descendant Lake Pannon. The observed trends document a strong tie to geodynamics| which are largely decoupled from Miocene open ocean isotope curves. Semi- to fully enclosed| initially marine water bodies such as the Paratethys Sea are prone to switching seawater isotope signatures because they respond rapidly to changes in the evaporation/precipitation ratio. Two phases of positive deviations of oxygen isotope values of water (relative to the modern ocean value| SMOW) occurred during the Middle Miocene; both were initiated by tectonic constrictions of the seaways and became amplified by global warming and regionally decreasing precipitation. With the final disintegration of the Paratethys| the marine isotope signatures vanish. Instead| the observed isotope trends suggest a comparably simple system of an alkaline lake with steadily declining salinity. The 'ocean-derived' Paratethys Sea may thus act as a key for understanding isotope trends in epicontinental seas. 1371,2007,2,4,Geographic evaluation of conservation status of African forest squirrels (Sciuridae) considering land use change and climate change: the importance of point data,Known occurrences based on natural history museum voucher specimens for three genera of African forest squirrels were used to develop a detailed| fine-scale distributional under-standing of each species. Considerations of species' autecology| effects of land use change| and effects of global climate change were all included in our analyses| and negative effects of land use and climate change on species' distributional areas were roughly equivalent across the species surveyed. We describe geographic patterns of distribution and endemism| and identify areas of potential occurrence of unknown species. Comparing with coarse grid-based approaches currently in vogue in African biodiversity conservation efforts| we suggest that the point-based method offers significant advantages in fine resolution and avoiding loss of information| and yet are feasibly implemented for many vertebrate groups. 1582,2007,2,4,Geographic variation in the immunoglobulin levels in pygoscelid penguins,Antarctic organisms| including penguins| are susceptible to parasites and pathogens. Effects of infestation could differ in different locations along a geographical gradient from north to south consistent with conditions that affect the prevalence and virulence of parasites and pathogens. The immune system| including immunoglobulins as the main component of the humoral immune response| is the major way by which organisms confront infestation. We investigated the variation in immunoglobulin levels in three species of antarctic penguins (Pygoscelis antarctica| Pygoscelis papua| and Pygoscelis adeliae) along a geographical gradient from King George Island (62 degrees 15'S) to Avian Island (67 degrees 46'S). We found that immunoglobulin levels increased northwards in all the three species. This could indicate a higher impact of parasites and/or pathogens relative to the existing gradient in temperatures along this coast. Changing temperatures| consistent with global climate change| could be altering the ecology of parasite or pathogen infestation within the biota of northern Antarctica. We have also found marginal differences in immunoglobulin levels between sexes in both chinstrap and gentoo penguins. 8386,2007,2,4,Gis analysis of Rutor Glacier (Aosta Valley| Italy) volume and terminus variations,Glaciers are an important economic and natural resource to be protected. It is important to develop new techniques for surveying and monitoring glacial bodies that are generally and rapidly retreating due to present climate conditions linked to global warming. Terminus variations in Italian Alpine Glaciers are traditionally determined yearly by measuring the distance between the terminus and ground control points. Thanks to new technologies and digital cartography| it is possible to generate and manage accurate glacier models that can integrate data time series to obtain more detailed views. Variations in the surface area and volume of Rutor Glacier (Val d'Aosta)| from its maximum expansion in the Little Ice Age to the present| ongoing retreat| were determined through a combination of ground surveys| digital techniques and pre-existing data time series. From the mid-19(th) century to 2004 the glacier terminus retreated 2 km| but there is evidence for two different cold periods of glacier advance. Furthermore| the glacial retreat that began again in 1990 seems to be faster than that of previous periods of recession. Rutor Glacier lost about 480 million cubic meters of ice between the Little Ice Age and 1991. Morphologic and volumetric analyses indicate that in the last decades Rutor Glacier has lost large quantities of ice mass with no significant terminus retreat (-46 million cubic meters of ice against - 1.4 hectares of areal extension with respect to the total surface area of 911 hectares); the glacier has gradually thinned while maintaining an almost constant surface area. The Equilibrium Line Altitude changed from 2775 m in the Little Ice Age maximum to 2850 m in 1991| for a total increase of 75 m. 7967,2007,2,4,Glacio-isostatic deformation around the Vatnajokull ice cap| Iceland| induced by recent climate warming: GPS observations and finite element modeling,[1] Glaciers in Iceland began retreating around 1890| and since then the Vatnajokull ice cap has lost over 400 km 3 of ice. The associated unloading of the crust induces a glacio-isostatic response. From 1996 to 2004 a GPS network was measured around the southern edge of Vatnajokull. These measurements| together with more extended time series at several other GPS sites| indicate vertical velocities around the ice cap ranging from 9 to 25 mm/yr| and horizontal velocities in the range 3 to 4 mm/yr. The vertical velocities have been modeled using the finite element method (FEM) in order to constrain the viscosity structure beneath Vatnajokull. We use an axisymmetric Earth model with an elastic plate over a uniform viscoelastic half-space. The observations are consistent with predictions based on an Earth model made up of an elastic plate with a thickness of 10-20 km and an underlying viscosity in the range 4-10 x 10(18) Pa s. Knowledge of the Earth structure allows us to predict uplift around Vatnajokull in the next decades. According to our estimates of the rheological parameters| and assuming that ice thinning will continue at a similar rate during this century (about 4 km 3/year)| a minimum uplift of 2.5 meters between 2000 to 2100 is expected near the current ice cap edge. If the thinning rates were to double in response to global warming (about 8 km 3/year)| then the minimum uplift between 2000 to 2100 near the current ice cap edge is expected to be 3.7 meters. 8118,2007,2,4,Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background,The variation in surface wetness index (SWI)| which was derived from global gridded monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU)| from 1951 2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents| such as North America| South America| Eurasia| Africa| and Australia| were compared. In addition| the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations| which affects climate change| was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa| Eurasia| Australia and South America| most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite increases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). 1579,2007,2,4,Global change and landscape change in Hungary,Today| an increasing number of observations show that the effects of global climate change can be felt in Hungary. One important long term effect is the decrease of ground water. This paper uses test well data for a GIS model of ground water recession and the prediction of water deficits on the Danube-Tisza Interfluve in Hungary| where the detail of recession is closely related to topography. Consequent declines in biomass| examined using mutlispectral methods| after 25 % of this area. In the "Puszta" near Szabadkigyos a nature conservation area| within 25-years| unvegetated alkaline flats became covered by grass| former alkaline benches were totally eliminated by erosion| while grass and saline vegetation appeared. 8254,2007,2,3,Global change shifts vegetation and plant-parasite interactions in a boreal mire,The aim of this study was to detect vegetation change and to examine trophic interactions in a Sphagnum-dominated mire in response to raised temperature and nitrogen (N) addition. A long-term global-change experiment was established in 1995| with monthly additions of N ( 30 kg.ha(-1).yr(-1)) and sulfur (20 kg.ha(-1)yr(-1)) during the vegetation period. Mean air temperature was raised by 3.6 degrees C with warming chambers. Vegetation responses were negligible for all treatments for the first four years| and no sulfur effect was seen during the course of the experiment. However| after eight years of continuous treatments| the closed Sphagnum carpet was drastically reduced from 100% in 1995 down to 41%| averaged over all N-treated plots. Over the same period| total vascular plant cover ( of the graminoid Eriophorum vaginatum and the two dwarf-shrubs Andromeda polifolia and Vaccinium oxycoccos) increased from 24% to an average of 70% in the N plots. Nitrogen addition caused leaf N concentrations to rise in the two dwarf-shrubs| while for E. vaginatum| leaf N remained unchanged| indicating that the graminoid to a larger extent than the dwarf-shrubs allocated supplemented N to growth. Concurrent with foliar N accumulation of the two dwarf-shrubs| we observed increased disease incidences caused by parasitic fungi| with three species out of 16 showing a significant increase. Warming caused a significant decrease in occurrence of three parasitic fungal species. In general| decreased disease incidences were found in temperature treatments for A. polifolia and in plots without N addition for V. oxycoccos. The study demonstrates that both bryophytes and vascular plants at boreal mires| only receiving background levels of nitrogen of about 2 kg.ha(-1)yr(-1)| exhibit a time lag of more than five years in response to nitrogen and temperature rise| emphasizing the need for long-term experiments. Moreover| it shows that trophic interactions are likely to differ markedly in response to climate change and increased N deposition| and that these interactions might play an important role in controlling the change in mire vegetation composition| with implications for both carbon sequestration and methane emission. 1399,2007,2,1,Global climate change and children's health,There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities| primarily the burning of fossil fuels| are very likely ( > 90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed| and fundamental| potentially irreversible| ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health| but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats| anticipate their effects on children's health| and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability ( the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad| integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change| likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change| and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to this change. 1400,2007,2,2,Global climate change and children's health,There is a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is warming| the process is accelerating| and that human activities are very likely ( > 90% probability) the main cause. This warming will have effects on ecosystems and human health| many of them adverse. Children will experience both the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Actions taken by individuals| communities| businesses| and governments will affect the magnitude and rate of global climate change and resultant health impacts. This technical report reviews the nature of the global problem and anticipated health effects on children and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. 1420,2007,2,4,Global climate change and the politics of disaster,The paper explores the potential political impact of global climate change and| more generally| of natural disaster. Because the affluent West has largely tamed the natural and the social domains| popular clamor for government to anticipate| prevent| and redress disaster increases. I delineate several consequences of the new politics of disaster. 1361,2007,2,4,Global climate change| war| and population decline in recent human history,Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change| the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study| high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production| which brought about a series of serious social problems| including price inflation| then successively war outbreak| famine| and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace| population| and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism. 1538,2007,5,4,Global cooling forced increase in marine strontium isotopic ratios: Importance of mica weathering and a kinetic approach,The knowledge of how and why marine Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios changed helps understand the impacts of many processes on the global biogeochemical cycle in the geological past. Here we examine the possible influence of global cooling on the evolution of marine Sr-87/Sr-86 curve by a kinetic approach. The importance of mica weathering is emphasized due to its high content of radiogenic strontium and low activation energy in weathering reaction. Since the activation energy determines the sensitivity of weathering rate in response to temperature changes| global cooling will increase the Sr-87/Sr-86 ratio of continental flux by relatively preferential weathering of mica. Based on the average strontium contents and Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios of the mica minerals in the exposed upper continental crust| a kinetic model is established to survey the response of riverine Sr-87/Sr-86 to the changes of global temperatures. The model result indicates that the increase of riverine Sr-87/Sr-86 caused by global cooling can solely account for most of the increase in seawater Sr-87/Sr-86 since 3.4 Myr B.P. This finding emphasizes that the weathering kinetics is an important mechanism relating the global climate change to marine Sr-87/Sr-86 curve; and the marine Sr-87/Sr-86 curve should be used with great care in the climate-weathering-tectonic connections. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 8357,2007,3,4,Global environmental impact assessment of the Pb-free shift,Purpose - Using two different conceptual approaches to environmental life-cycle assessment| attributional and consequential| the purpose was to test the hypothesis that a typical lead free solder paste Sn95.5Ag3.8CuO.7 is worse than Sn63Pb37 as far as global environmental impacts are concerned. Design/methodology/approach - Single index weighting indices within the impact methodology Life cycle Impact Assessment Method based on Endpoint Modelling (LIME) impact methodology| were applied to the flows of three life cycle inventory models and their globally related flows. The LIME results based on three environmental impact categories| i.e. resource consumption| global warming and ozonelayer depletion are presented and discussed. Findings - The attributional LCA (ALCA) results point towards a larger impact for Sn95.5Ag3.8Cu0.7 than Sn63Pb37 mostly due to the higher Sn and Ag content. This study confirms earlier similar ALCAs. The system expansion for the Consequential LCA (CLCA) did not change this conclusion. Research limitations/implications - The present study has not included the affected microelectronics packaging parts of electronic products| nor has it included toxic effects as they are local. ALCA was considered to be equal to CLCA for Sn95.5Ag3.8Cu0.7| where no Ag nor Sn recycling was included. Originality/value - For the first time a global environmental impact assessment of the shift to Pb-free solder paste using the LIME weighting method applied to a CLCA is reported. Environmental life-cycle investigations intended to support decisions of an ecological nature in the microelectronics packaging industry should benefit from the consequential approach. 8282,2007,2,2,Global impacts of aerosols from particular source regions and sectors,[1] We study the impacts of present-day aerosols emitted from particular regions and from particular sectors| as predicted by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM. We track the distribution and direct radiative forcing of aerosols| including sulfate and black and organic carbon| emitted from major source regions (North America| Europe| south Asia| Southeast Asia| South America| and Africa). We also partition the emissions by sector| including industrial| power| residential| transport| biomass burning| and natural. Southeast Asia produces 15% and 10% of the world's black carbon and sulfate and exports over 2/ 3 of this burden over the Northern Hemisphere. About 1/ 2 of the SO(2) emitted by Southeast Asia and Europe is not converted to sulfate because of oxidant limitation. Although Africa has the largest biomass burning emissions| South America generates a larger (about 20% of the global carbonaceous) aerosol burden; about 1/ 2 of this burden is exported and dominates the carbonaceous aerosol load in the Southern Hemisphere. Calculated direct anthropogenic radiative forcings are -0.29| -0.06| and 0.24 W m(-2) for sulfate| organic| and black carbon| respectively. The largest BC radiative forcings are from residential (0.09 W m(-2)) and transport (0.06 W m(-2)) sectors| making these potential targets to counter global warming. However| scattering components within these sectors reduce these to 0.04 and 0.03 W m(-2)| respectively. Most anthropogenic sulfate comes from power and industry sectors| and these sectors are responsible for the large negative aerosol forcings over the central Northern Hemisphere. 8038,2007,2,4,Global negative vegetation feedback to climate warming responses of leaf litter decomposition rates in cold biomes,Whether climate change will turn cold biomes from large long-term carbon sinks into sources is hotly debated because of the great potential for ecosystem-mediated feedbacks to global climate. Critical are the direction| magnitude and generality of climate responses of plant litter decomposition. Here| we present the first quantitative analysis of the major climate-change-related drivers of litter decomposition rates in cold northern biomes worldwide. Leaf litters collected from the predominant species in 33 global change manipulation experiments in circum-arctic-alpine ecosystems were incubated simultaneously in two contrasting arctic life zones. We demonstrate that longer-term| large-scale changes to leaf litter decomposition will be driven primarily by both direct warming effects and concomitant shifts in plant growth form composition| with a much smaller role for changes in litter quality within species. Specifically| the ongoing warming-induced expansion of shrubs with recalcitrant leaf litter across cold biomes would constitute a negative feedback to global warming. Depending on the strength of other (previously reported) positive feedbacks of shrub expansion on soil carbon turnover| this may partly counteract direct warming enhancement of litter decomposition. 8026,2007,2,4,Global validation of the ISBA sub-grid hydrology,Over recent years| many numerical studies have suggested that the land surface hydrology contributes to atmospheric variability and predictability on a wide range of scales. Conversely| land surface models (LSMs) have been also used to study the hydrological impacts of seasonal climate anomalies and of global warming. Validating these models at the global scale is therefore a crucial task| which requires off-line simulations driven by realistic atmospheric fluxes to avoid the systematic biases commonly found in the atmospheric models. The present study is aimed at validating a new land surface hydrology within the ISBA LSM. Global simulations are conducted at a 1 degrees by 1 degrees horizontal resolution using 3-hourly atmospheric forcings provided by the Global Soil Wetness Project. Compared to the original scheme| the new hydrology includes a comprehensive and consistent set of sub-grid parametrizations in order to account for spatial heterogeneities of topography| vegetation| and precipitation within each grid cell. The simulated runoff is converted into river discharge using the total runoff integrating pathways (TRIP) river routing model (RRM)| and compared with available monthly observations at 80 gauging stations distributed over the world's largest river basins. The simulated discharges are also compared with parallel global simulations from five alternative LSMs. Globally| the new sub-grid hydrology performs better than the original ISBA scheme. Nevertheless| the improvement is not so clear in the high-latitude river basins (i.e. Ob| MacKenzie)| which can be explained by a too late snow melt in the ISBA model. Over specific basins (i.e. Parana| Niger)| the quality of the simulated discharge is also limited by the TRIP RRM| which does not account for the occurrence of seasonal floodplains and for their significant impact on the basin-scale water budget. 8294,2007,4,2,Global warming 2007 - An update to global warming: The balance of evidence and its policy implications,In the four years since my original review (Keller[25]; hereafter referred to as CFK03)| research has clarified and strengthened our understanding of how humans are warming the planet. So many of the details highlighted in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report[21] and in CFK03 have been resolved that I expect many to be a bit overwhelmed| and I hope that| by treating just the most significant aspects of the research| this update may provide a road map through the expected maze of new information. In particular| while most of CFK03 remains current| there are important items that have changed: Most notable is the resolution of the conundrum that mid-tropospheric warming did not seem to match surface warming. Both satellite and radiosonde (balloon-borne sensors) data reduction showed little warming in the middle troposphere (4-8 km altitude). In the CFK03 I discussed potential solutions to this problem| but at that time there was no clear resolution. This problem has now been solved| and the middle troposphere is seen to be warming apace with the surface. There have also been advances in determinations of temperatures over the past 1|000 years showing a cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) but essentially the same warming during medieval times (not as large as recent warming). The recent uproar over the so-called "hockey stick" temperature determination is much overblown since at least seven other groups have made relatively independent determinations of northern hemisphere temperatures over the same time period and derived essentially the same results. They differ on how cold the LIA was but essentially agree with the Mann's hockey stick result that the Medieval Warm Period was not as warm as the last 25 years. The question of the sun's influence on climate continues to generate controversy. It appears there is a growing consensus that| while the sun was a major factor in earlier temperature variations| it is incapable of having caused observed warming in the past quarter century or so. However| this conclusion is being challenged by differing interpretations of satellite observations of Total Solar Insolation (TSI). Different satellites give different estimates of TSI during the 1996-7 solar activity minimum. A recent study using the larger TSI satellite interpretation indicates a stronger role for the sun| and until there is agreement on TSI at solar minimum| we caution completely disregarding the sun as a significant factor in recent warming. Computer models continue to improve and| while they still do not do a satisfactory job of predicting regional changes| their simulations of global aspects of climate change and of individual forcings are increasingly reliable. In addition to these four areas| the past five years have seen advances in our understanding of many other aspects of climate change-from albedo changes due to land use to the dynamics of glacier movement. However| these more are of second order importance and will only be treated very briefly. The big news since CFK03 is the first of these| the collapse of the climate critics' last real bastion| namely that satellites and radiosondes show no significant warming in the past quarter century. Figuratively speaking| this was the center pole that held up the critics' entire "tent." Their argument was that| if there had been little warming in the past 25 years or so| then what warming was observed would have been within the range of natural variations with solar forcing as the major player. Further| the models would have been shown to be unreliable since they were predicting warming that was not happening. But now both satellite and in-situ radiosonde observations have been shown to corroborate both the surface observations of warming and the model predictions. Thus| while uncertainties still remain| we are now seeing a coherent picture in which past climate variations| solar and other forcings| model predictions and other indicators such as glacier recession all point to a human-induced warming that needs to be considered carefully. A final topic touched on briefly here is the new understanding of the phenomenon called "global dimming." Several sets of observations of the sun's total radiation at the surface have shown that there has been a reduction in sunlight reaching it. This has been related to the scattering of sunlight by aerosols and has led to a better quantification of the possibility that cleaning up our atmospheric pollution will lead to greater global warming. Adding all these advances together| there is a growing consensus that the 21st century will indeed see some 2 degrees C (3.5 degrees F) or more in additional warming. This is corroborated in the new IPCC Assessment| an early release of which is touched on very briefly here. 8158,2007,4,4,Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars,For hundreds of years| scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars| first by hand drawings and later by photographs(1|2). Because of this historical record| many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface ( up to 56 million km(2)) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more(3-5). It is unknown| however| how these albedo changes affect wind circulation| dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model| indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas| producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by similar to 0.65 K| enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation| a poorly understood phenomenon| unique to Mars. In addition| predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years(6-8). Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars| and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies. 7984,2007,2,4,Global warming and coral reefs: Modelling the effect of temperature on Acropora palmata colony growth,Data on colony growth of the branching coral Acropora palmata from fringing reefs off Discovery Bay on the north coast of Jamaica have been obtained over the period 2002-2007 using underwater photography and image analysis by both SCUBA and remotely using an ROV incorporating twin lasers. Growth modelling shows that while logarithmic growth is an approximate model for growth| a 3:3 rational polynomial function provides a significantly better fit to growth data for this coral species. Over the period 2002-2007| involving several cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) change| the rate of growth of A. palmata was largely proportional to rate of change of SST| with R-2 = 0.935. These results have implications for the influence of global warming and climate change on coral reef ecosystems. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8083,2007,2,4,Global warming and fish migrations,Ocean temperatures are expected to rise over the next decades. This is likely to affect the distribution of fish stocks between the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of different countries. Such changes are likely to be triggered as temperatures rise beyond certain threshold levels| and they are likely to be irregular because temperatures are likely to vary around a rising trend. The paper looks at the case where temperature changes would displace a fish stock out of the EEZ of one country and into the EEZ of another| with a transition period in which the stock is shared. It is examined how this might affect the risk of extinction and degree of overfishing| under different cost scenarios and different assumptions about how countries react to observed changes in the distribution of the stock between their economic zones. 8105,2007,4,2,Global warming and human activity: A model for studying the potential instability of the carbon dioxide/temperature feedback mechanism,In this paper| control theory is used to study the connection between human activities and global warming. A feedback model is proposed and tested against temperature and carbon dioxide concentration historical data. Four scenarios are taken into account and simulated by the model; stability analysis is also discussed. The model proposed here simulates the historical data correctly and the scenarios show that| even in the case of dramatic reduction of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission| the temperature will not decrease for a certain time. Stability analysis reveals a complex pole near the unit circle. This means that| although the system at the moment is stable| it is very close to becoming unstable with unpredictable consequences on climate change. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8322,2007,3,3,Global warming and nuclear power,Purpose - This paper seeks to give a review of reasons for believing that the problem of global warming is more urgent than widely assumed| largely following the lead of a recent book by Lovelock. It is argued that increased use of nuclear power is the best course| especially if fusion power can be achieved. A short note is appended referring to a previous discussion of interactions with Islam. Design/methodology/approach - This is performed by a review of developments on the internet| especially those of general cybernetic interest. Findings - Global warming poses a real and immediate threat which can be partly offset by increased use of nuclear power. Practical implications - Increased use of nuclear power is not only warranted| but also vital| and achievement of practical fusion power would be an enormous bonus. Originality/value - Hopefully this is a valuable periodic review. 7990,2007,2,2,Global warming and the disruption of plant-pollinator interactions,Anthropogenic climate change is widely expected to drive species extinct by hampering individual survival and reproduction| by reducing the amount and accessibility of suitable habitat| or by eliminating other organisms that are essential to the species in question. Less well appreciated is the likelihood that climate change will directly disrupt or eliminate mutually beneficial ( mutualistic) ecological interactions between species even before extinctions occur. We explored the potential disruption of a ubiquitous mutualistic interaction of terrestrial habitats| that between plants and their animal pollinators| via climate change. We used a highly resolved empirical network of interactions between 1420 pollinator and 429 plant species to simulate consequences of the phenological shifts that can be expected with a doubling of atmospheric CO(2). Depending on model assumptions| phenological shifts reduced the floral resources available to 17-50% of all pollinator species| causing as much as half of the ancestral activity period of the animals to fall at times when no food plants were available. Reduced overlap between plants and pollinators also decreased diet breadth of the pollinators. The predicted result of these disruptions is the extinction of pollinators| plants and their crucial interactions. 7991,2007,2,1,Global warming is driven by anthropogenic emissions: A time series analysis approach,The solar influence on global climate is nonstationary. Processes such as the Schwabe and Gleissberg cycles of the Sun| or the many intrinsic atmospheric oscillation modes| yield a complex pattern of interaction with multiple time scales. In addition| emissions of greenhouse gases| aerosols| or volcanic dust perturb the dynamics of this coupled system to different and still uncertain extents. Here we show| using two independent driving force reconstruction techniques| that the combined effect of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions has been the main external driver of global climate during the past decades. 7945,2007,2,4,Global warming possibly linked to an enhanced risk of suicide: Data from Italy| 1974-2003,Background: The global increase in surface temperature (known as global warming) was found to impact on mortality through ill health| particularly among the elderly and in summer. This study sets out to explore the impact of global warming on suicide mortality| using data from Italy. Methods: Monthly data on suicide mortality and temperature were obtained for a 30-year period (from January 1974 to December 2003)| and the relation between them was investigated using the Gaussian low-pass filter| linear correlation analysis and rank analysis. Results: For males| increasing anomalies in monthly average temperatures associated to a higher monthly suicide mean from May to August and| to a lower extent| in November and December. In January| on the other hand| increasing anomalies in monthly average temperatures appeared to be coupled to a lower number of suicides. For females| the links between temperature and suicides are less consistent than for males| and sometimes have a reverse sign| too. Limitations: Data could not be analyzed according to age| since this information was not available across the whole time interval. The use of monthly data| instead of daily data (unavailable)| is another major limitation of this study. Conclusions: An improvement in the ability of communities to adjust to temperature changes by implementing public health interventions may play an important part in preserving the wellness of the general population| and also in limiting the worst consequences of suicidal behaviour. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 8097,2007,4,4,Global warming| rising costs complicate capacity additions,If little else is clear about the future of the U.S. power industry| this much is: Electricity rates are going up across the country| and will continue to. None of the esteemed panelists at the CEO session of the ELECTRIC POWER 2007 Conference Exhibition in Chicago last month actually said those words. But much of what they did say supports that conclusion. The public demand for solutions to global warming is one reason power prices will rise. Others include substantial escalations in the capital costs of new units (well before any dirt is turned)| a woefully inadequate (and shrinking| due to retirements) talent base to draw from in rebuilding staff and skill sets| a tight market for skilled and unskilled labor| and an insatiable global demand (led by China) for commodities. David Saggau| president and CEO of Great River Energy| the nation's fourth-largest generation and transmission cooperative| stated that his customers are asking for environmental stewardship.
8280,2007,5,4,Globally synchronous climate change 2800 years ago: Proxy data from peat in South America,Initial findings from high-latitude ice-cores implied a relatively unvarying Holocene climate| in contrast to the major climate swings in the preceding late-Pleistocene. However| several climate archives from low latitudes imply a less than equable Holocene climate| as do recent studies on peat bogs in mainland north-west Europe| which indicate an abrupt climate cooling 2800 years ago| with parallels claimed in a range of climate archives elsewhere. A hypothesis that this claimed climate shift was global| and caused by reduced solar activity| has recently been disputed. Until now| no directly comparable data were available from the southern hemisphere to help resolve the dispute. Building on investigations of the vegetation history of an extensive mire in the Valle de Andorra| Tierra del Fuego| we took a further peat core from the bog to generate a high-resolution climate history through the use of determination of peat hurnification and quantitative leaf-count plant macrofossil analysis. Here| we present the new proxy-climate data from the bog in South America. The data are directly comparable with those in Europe| as they were produced using identical laboratory methods. They show that there was a major climate perturbation at the same time as in northwest European bogs. Its timinia| nature and apparent global synchronicity lend support to the notion of solar forcing of past climate change| amplified by oceanic circulation. This finding of a similar response simultaneously in both hemispheres may help validate and improve global climate models. That reduced solar activity might cause a global climatic change suggests that attention be paid also to consideration of any global climate response to increases in solar activity. This has implications for interpreting the relative contribution of climate drivers of recent 'global warming'. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7839,2007,4,3,GlobColour - A precursor to the GMES marine core service ocean colour Thematic Assembly Centre,ESA's GlobColour project is providing valuable information on marine biological activity| essential for assessing the amount of carbon dioxide being absorbed from the atmosphere by the oceans| and for projecting the severity of future global warming. By merging data from three satellite sensors| GlobCalour offers the most complete 'ocean colour' data covering the last 10 years. A near-real time ocean colour service is being developed to demonstrate the capability of supporting operational decision-making. Together with the Medspiration project on sea-surface temperature| GlabCalour is laying the groundwork for the operational exploitation of Envisat and Sentinel-3 that will be sustained under the European Commission's 'GMES Marine Core Service'. 8387,2007,4,3,GNSS-based sea level monitoring,This paper attempts to assess the use of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) as an accurate| reliable| and easy tool for sea level measurement. The GNSS technique was incorporated into a float based tide gauge system. A prototype of such an instrument was developed based on principles of conventional tide gauges| where high frequency noise is reduced mechanically. The ability of the GNSS based tide gauge (GTG) to monitor sea levels was tested in several experiments. The performance of the GTG was compared to that of a traditional tide gauge. The method of data analysis and data comparison between the GPS measurements and the tide gauge data is presented. The results show that the GTG is equal in performance to the traditional float operated tide gauge. It seems that the GTG is capable of delivering the same level of accuracy (1 cm)| and its results are as reliable as its competitor| the traditional float tide gauge. The suggested instrument can be easily integrated into the array of permanent GNSS stations and assist in absolute measurements of sea level changes| caused by global warming and the greenhouse effect| for example. 8075,2007,2,4,Gonadal histology and some biochemical characteristics of Chalcalburnus tarichi (Pallas| 1811) having abnormal gonads,The gonad histology| gonado-somatic index (GSI)| 17 beta-estradiol (E-2) levels and acetylcholinesterase (AChE) activity in the carp species Chalcalburnus tarichi from Lake Van and the Karasu river| eastern Turkey| have been investigated. Fish between 5 and 7 years old were sampled from November 2003 to February 2004. The ratio of female fish caught in Lake Van with abnormal ovaries (AbOF) was 43.3%| but the fork length and body weight of these fish were not correlated with this abnormality. The weight of the ovaries and the GSI values of AbOF were very low (P < 0.05). Histological observations on the samples caught each month revealed that the oocytes had degenerated in the perinucleolus and early cortical alveolus stages and that the ovaries were full of somatic stromal tissue. In addition| the seminiferous tubules of male fish with abnormal testes did not contain male reproductive cells at any stage. The ovaries of the fish caught from the Karasu river were also full of oocytes in the perinucleolus and early cortical alveolus stages| but there were fewer atretic follicles. Furthermore| apoptosis was observed in the ovary cells of these fish| in particular in the follicular cells| and the plasma E-2 levels of the AbOF was very low (P < 0.05). AChE activity was inhibited only in liver (P < 0.05). We conclude that our sample of C. tarichi must have been exposed to various polluting chemicals or another unknown factors (such as global warming) and that these factors have irreversibly impaired oocyte development in a high percentage of fish. 8154,2007,3,2,Good enough tools for global warming policy making,We present a simple analysis of the global warming problem caused by the emissions of CO2 (a major greenhouse gas) into the atmosphere resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. We provide quantitative tools which enable policymakers and interested citizens to explore the following issues central to the global warming problem.
At what rate are we permitted to continue to emit CO2 after the global average atmospheric concentration has ‘stabilized’ at some chosen target level? The answer here provides the magnitude of the effort| measured by the necessary total reduction of today's global (annual) emissions rate to achieve stabilization. We shall see that stabilized emissions rates for all interesting stabilized concentration levels are much lower than the current emissions rate| but these small finite values are very important.
Across how many years can we spread the total effort to reduce the annual CO2 emissions rate from its current high value to the above-mentioned low and stabilized target value? The answer here provides the time-scale of the total mitigation effort for any chosen atmospheric concentration target level. We confirm the common understanding that targets below a doubling of the pre-industrial concentration create great pressure to produce action immediately| while targets above double the pre-industrial level can tolerate longer periods of inaction.
How much harder is the future mitigation effort| if we do not do our share of the job now? Is it a good idea to overshoot a stabilization target? The quantitative answers here provide the penalty of procrastination. For example| the mitigation task to avoid doubling the pre-industrial level is a problem that can be addressed gradually| over a period extending more than a century| if started immediately| but procrastination can turn the effort into a much more urgent task that extends over only a few decades. We also find that overshooting target levels is a bad idea.
The quality of public discourse on this subject could be much enhanced if ball-park quantitative answers to these questions were more widely known.
7856,2007,3,4,Greenhouse gas emissions in Canada and Japan: Sector-specific estimates and managerial and economic implications,Many firms generate large amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases when they burn fossil fuels in their production processes. In addition| production of raw materials and other inputs the firms procure for their operations also generates greenhouse gases indirectly. These direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions occur in many sectors of our economies. In this paper| we first present sector-specific estimates for such greenhouse gas emissions. We then show that estimates for such sector-specific greenhouse gas emissions are often required for various types of corporate as well as public policy analyses in both domestic and international contexts. Measuring greenhouse gas emissions resulting from firms' multi-stage production processes in a multi-sector context is relevant for policies related to the Kyoto protocol| an international agreement to limit global greenhouse gas emissions. For example| since the protocol allows firms to engage in trading and offsetting of their greenhouse gas emissions across national borders| provided that emissions are correctly measured| the firms can take advantage of such trading schemes by placing their energy-intensive production facilities globally and strategically. We present several case studies which illustrate the importance of this and other aspects of greenhouse gas emissions in firms' environmental management. We also argue that our modeling and estimation methods based on input-output analyses are suitable for the types of research goals we have in this paper. Our methods are applied to data for Canada and Japan in a variety of environmental management circumstances. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7791,2007,2,4,Greenhouse gas production in a pond sediment: Effects of temperature| itrate| acetate and season,In this paper we investigate the impact of nitrate (NO(3)(-)) concentration and temperature on the production of carbon dioxide (CO(2))| methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We studied sediment collected during spring| summer and autumn from a constructed pond in South Sweden. Homogenised sediment samples were dark incubated in vitro under N(2) atmosphere at 13 degrees C and 20 degrees C after addition of five NO(3)(-) concentrations| between 0 and 16 mg NO(3)(-) -N per litre. We found higher net production of N(2)O and CO| at the higher temperature. Moreover| increased NO(3)(-) concentrations had strong positive impact on the N(2)O(3) concentration| but no effect on CH(4) and CO(2) production. The lack of response in CO(2) is suggested to be due to the use of alternative oxidants as electron acceptors. Interaction between NO(3)(-) and temperature suggests a further increase of N(2O)| net production when both NO(3) and temperature are high. Our interpretation of the CH(4) data is that at high concentrations of NO(3) temperature is of less importance for CH(4) production. We also found that at 13 degrees C CH(4) production was substrate limited and that the addition of acetate increased CH(4) as well as CO(2) production. There was a seasonal effect on gas production potential| with more CH(4) and NO produced in spring than in summer. Re-calculation of the gas concentrations into global warming potential (GWP) units (i.e. CO(2)| CH4| and N(2)O transferred to CO(2) equivalents) shows that GWP increases with temperature. However| under environmental conditions generally occurring in South Swedish ponds| i.e. low temperature and high NO(3) concentration during spring and high temperature and low NO(3) concentration during summer| NO(3)(-) concentration is of minor importance. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1496,2007,2,4,Groundwater influence on alpine stream ecosystems,1. Spatial and temporal variability of relative snow-melt| glacier-melt and groundwater contributions to streams play important roles in shaping alpine freshwater ecosystems. Although meltwater (particularly glacier-fed) streams have received much attention in recent years| the influence of groundwater on alpine freshwater ecosystems remains poorly understood. 2. This study tested the hypotheses that increased groundwater contributions to meltwater-dominated alpine streams would yield increases in water temperature| channel stability| electrical conductivity and particulate organic matter (POM) and decreases in suspended sediment concentration (SSC). These more favourable habitat conditions were hypothesised to result in increased macroinvertebrate abundance and diversity. 3. Groundwater contributions| physicochemical habitat variables and benthic macroinvertebrates were sampled throughout the 2002 and 2003 summer-melt seasons in three streams in the French Pyrenees. 4. Increased groundwater contributions were significantly correlated with higher discharge| water temperature| electrical conductivity| POM and channel stability| but lower SSC. 5. Macroinvertebrate total abundance| taxonomic richness| number of Ephemeroptera| Plecoptera and Trichoptera genera| and per cent Plecoptera all increased significantly with greater groundwater contributions to streamflow. However| beta diversity and Trichoptera relative abundance decreased. 6. Abundance of most macroinvertebrate taxa was highest under groundwater-dominated conditions but a gradient of optimum groundwater preferences was evident across all taxa. Some taxa were found only where groundwater contributions were low (i.e. in predominantly meltwater-fed streams). 7. This study provides evidence that water source| physicochemical habitat and stream biota are strongly linked. Therefore| an interdisciplinary approach is necessary for future studies aiming to develop conservation strategies or predict the response of alpine river ecosystems to global climate change. 7924,2007,2,4,Has climatic warming altered spring flowering date of sonoran desert shrubs?,With global warming| flowering at many locations has shifted toward earlier dates of bloom. A steady increase in average annual temperature since the late 1890s makes it likely that flowering also has advanced in the northern Sonoran Desert of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In this study| phenological models were used to predict annual date of spring bloom in the northern Sonoran Desert from 1894 to 2004; then| herbarium specimens were assessed for objective evidence of the predicted shift in flowering time. The phenological models were derived from known flowering requirements (triggers and heat sums) of Sonoran Desert shrubs. According to the models| flowering might have advanced by 20-41 d from 1894 to 2004. Analysis of herbarium specimens collected during the 20(th) century supported the model predictions. Over time| there was a significant increase in the proportion of shrub specimens collected in flower in March and a significant decrease in the proportion collected in May. Thus| the flowering curve - the proportion of individuals in flower in each spring month - shifted toward the start of the calendar year between 1900 and 1999. This shift could not be explained by collection activity: collectors showed no tendency to be active earlier in the year as time went on| nor did activity toward the end of spring decline in recent decades. Earlier bloom eventually could have substantial impacts on plant and animal communities in the Sonoran Desert| especially on migratory hummingbirds and population dynamics of shrubs. 7896,2007,2,2,Health impacts of an environmental disaster: a polemic,At this early point in the 21st century a major concern that we face is the future possible effects of people-induced global warming. The predicted effects are severe| but argued by some to be avoidable if we act now. Here we consider the dimensions of another disaster: one for which not only the causes| but also their horrific consequences| are current worldwide. The implicit question is 'why are we more worried about future disasters than those already occurring?' The worldmapper collection of cartograms (where a map is used like a pie-chart to present data) is used here to illustrate the extent of international inequalities in health and living conditions| discussed in relation to other aspects of human lives. Though the shape that we can see the world is in is shocking| we can also envisage a positive future. We compare these current global times to more local past times experienced during the ravaging inequalities of Victorian Britain. We use Britain simply as an example. We end by suggesting a further step the current British Prime Minister could make in his thinking. Doing this we can see the potential for environmental reconstruction| which would result (as it did before) in considerable reductions in infant mortality. Our common future is not already mapped out; it is still to be won. 8113,2007,3,4,Health| safety| and ecological implications of using biobased floor-stripping products,The main objective of the study reported Abstract I here was to investigate the ecological| health| and safety (EHS) implications of using biobased floor strippers as alternatives to solvent-based products such as Johnson Wax Professional (Pro Strip)| The authors applied a quick EHS-scoring technique developed by the Surface Solution Laboratory (SSL) of the Toxics Use Reduction Institute (TURI) to some alternative| biobased products that had previously performed as well as or close to as well as the currently used product. The quick technique is considered an important step in EHS assessment| particularly for toxics use reduction planners and advocates who may not have the resources to subject many alternative products or processes at once to detailed EHS analysis. Taking this step narrows available options to a manageable number. (Technical-performance experiments were also conducted| but the results are not discussed or reported in this paper.) The cost of switching to biobased floor strippers was assessed and compared with the cost of using the traditional product| both at full strength and at the dilution ratios recommended by the respective manufacturers. The EHS analysis was based on a framework consisting of five parameters: volatile organic compounds (VOCs); pH; global-warming potential (GWP); ozone depletion potential (ODP); and safety scores in areas such as flammability| stability| and special hazards| based on ratings from the Hazardous Material Classification System (HMIS) and the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA Total EHS scores were calculated with data derived from the material safety data sheets. For most cleaning products previously investigated by the TURI SSL| the investigators have demonstrated that the five key parameters used in the study reported here can successfully be used for quick screening of the EHS impacts of cleaning alternatives. All eight biobased| or green| products evaluated in the study had better EHS-screening scores than did Pro Strip. One product| Botanic Gold| had a screening score of 49 out of a possible 50. This score was much higher than the score of 26 achieved by Pro Strip. The other biobased floor strippers had EHS-screening scores of >= 37| which is the average value of solvent-based cleaning solutions. These results indicate that biobased cleaning products capable of floor stripping are potentially better than traditional products with respect to the five EHS parameters used. The cost of switching to biobased floor strippers at their full strength ranged from a minimum of U.S. $15.50 per gallon ($4.10 per liter) for Eco Natural Floor Stripper (WPR) to about $59.00 per gallon ($15.61 per liter) for Botanic Gold. At 25 percent volume by volume (v/v)| the recommended dilution ratio for the traditional product| the cost of the Botanic Gold was $14.75 per gallon ($3.90 per liter)| or about five times more than that of Pro Strip| which was $2.48 per gallon ($0.|65 per liter). Since these figures do not reflect all of the EHS costs| such as disposal and recycling fees| it is likely that use of Botanic Gold could he cost-effective in the long run| The authors therefore recommend that detailed EHS analysis he conducted on this alternative biobased floor stripper. It is also recommended that large field trials he conducted and that janitors' or consumers perceptions be determined. For detailed assessment of eco-toxicological properties of the biobased floor strippers| investigations of the common additives in the Botanic Gold formulation should be conducted through use of databases onthe World Wide Web such as Toxnet. Finally| the current policies| regulations| and standards that promote biobased products should be investigated to determine their strengths and weaknesses. This would encourage a broader public debate about the future of the biobased industry in the context of sustainability. 8139,2007,2,4,Heatwaves in Vienna: effects on mortality,Background: The hot summer of 2003 brought about increased mortality in southern and western Europe| highlighting the health impact of heatwaves. No Austrian mortality data have yet been reported for this summer period. Methods: Daily mortality data for Vienna between 1998 and 2004 were obtained from Statistics Austria and meteorological data from the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics. Heatwaves were defined using the Kysely criterion. Daily mortality for May to September was predicted by a generalized additive model considering over- dispersion with Poisson deviates and a log link. Seasonal trend was accounted for by a natural spline| weekdays were modeled by dummy variables and heatwave days were included as dichotomous predictor. Results: The average seasonal temperature for May to September in Vienna has increased by more than 1.7 C during the last 35 years. In 2003 there was an excess of heatwave days| 44 overall| that resulted in an increased number of deaths| approximately 180| most of which were not due to ` harvesting'. Heatwave days between 1998 and 2004 were associated with a significantly increased relative mortality risk of 1.13 [ 95% confidence interval 1.09 - 1.17]. This increase was stronger in females than in males. Although excess mortality was seen in all age groups| it reached significance only in the elderly population over 65 years. Discussion: An impact of heatwaves on mortality was apparent in Vienna| although not as pronounced as in France and south- western Europe. In 2003 at least 130 heatwave- related deaths in Vienna could have been avoided by prompt medical assistance and proper advice about how to cope with excessive thermal conditions. Preventive programs are warranted during heatwaves| especially to target elderly people| because the likelihood of heatwaves as a consequence of global warming is increasing. 7793,2007,2,3,Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?,We find that long-period variations in tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean have occurred as three relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures ( SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall| there appears to have been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.78 degrees C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs| and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of tropical cyclones that become major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher latitude hurricane developments| perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945 1964 is consistent with a peak period in major hurricane proportions. 7739,2007,2,4,High salinity alters chloroplast morpho-physiology in a freshwater Kirchneriella species (Selenastraceae) from Ethiopian Lake Awasa,Plants differ in their ability to tolerate salt stress. In aquatic ecosystems| it is important to know the responses of microalgae to increased salinity levels| especially considering that global warming will increase salinity levels in some regions of the Earth| e.g.| Ethiopia. A green microalga| Kirchneriella sp. (Selenastraceae| Chlorophyta)| isolated from freshwater Lake Awasa in the Rift Valley| Ethiopia| was cultured in media amended with 0| 0.4| 1.9| 5.9| and 19.4 g NaCl center dot L-1 adjusted with NaCl to five salinity levels adjusted with NaCl. Growth was monitored for 3 mo| then samples were collected for photosynthetic pigment determinations| microspectrofluorimetric analyses| and micro- and submicroscopic examinations. The best growth was found at 1.9 g NaCl center dot L-1. In the chloroplast| excess NaCl affected the coupling of light harvesting complex 11 and photosystem II (LHCII-PSII)| but changes in thylakoid architecture and in the PSII assembly state allowed sufficient integrity of the photosynthetic membrane. The mucilaginous capsule around the cell probably provided partial protection against NaCl excess. On the whole| the microalga is able to acclimate to a range of NaCl concentrations| and this plasticity indicates that Kirchneriella sp. may survive future changes in water quality. 1581,2007,2,4,High temperature acclimation of C-4 photosynthesis is linked to changes in photosynthetic biochemistry,With average global temperatures predicted to increase over the next century| it is important to understand the extent and mechanisms of C-4 photosynthetic acclimation to modest increases in growth temperature. To this end| we compared the photosynthetic responses of two C-4 grasses (Panicum coloratum and Cenchrus ciliaris) and one C-4 dicot (Flaveria bidentis) to growth at moderate (25/20 degrees C| day/night) or high (35/30 degrees C| day/night) temperatures. In all three C-4 species| CO2 assimilation rates (A) underwent significant thermal acclimation| such that when compared at growth temperatures| A increased less than what would be expected given the strong response of A to short-term changes in leaf temperature. Thermal photosynthetic acclimation was further manifested by an increase in the temperature optima of A| and a decrease in leaf nitrogen content and leaf mass per area in the high-relative to the moderate-temperature-grown plants. Reduced photosynthetic capacity at the higher growth temperature was underpinned by selective changes in photosynthetic components. Plants grown at the higher temperature had lower amounts of ribulose-1|5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase and cytochrome f and activity of carbonic anhydrase. The activities of photosystem II (PSII) and phosphenolpyruvate carboxylase were not affected by growth temperature. Chlorophyll fluorescence measurements of F. bidentis showed a corresponding decrease in the quantum yield of PSII (Phi(PSII)) and an increase in non-photochemical quenching (Phi(NPQ)). It is concluded that through these biochemical changes| C-4 plants maintain the balance between the various photosynthetic components at each growth temperature| despite the differing temperature dependence of each process. As such| at higher temperatures photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency increases more than A. Our results suggest C-4 plants will show only modest changes in photosynthetic rates in response to changes in growth temperature| such as those expected within or between seasons| or the warming anticipated as a result of global climate change. 1358,2007,2,3,High-resolution regional climate modeling for the Volta region of West Africa,[1] The Volta region is a climate-sensitive semiarid to subhumid region in West Africa. To investigate the impact of expected global climate change on regional water availability| regional climate modeling was performed. Two time slices (1991-2000 and 2030-2039) of the ECHAM4 scenario IS92a were dynamically downscaled with MM5 to a spatial resolution of 9 km. The quality of MM5 simulations in reproducing regional climate was assessed using reanalysis data for initial and boundary conditions. Although an underestimation of coastal rainfall was detected| sufficient accuracy in the Volta Basin could be achieved. The regional climate simulations show an annual mean temperature increase of 1.2-1.3 degrees C in the Volta region. This temperature change significantly exceeds interannual variability. A mean annual change in precipitation from -20% to +50% (similar to -150 to +200 mm) is simulated| with a spatial mean increase of 5% (similar to 45 mm). In the rainy season| rainfall predominantly increases| whereas a strong decrease is found for April| which is connected to a delay in the onset of the rainy season. In addition| interannual variability in the Volta region increases in the early stage of the rainy season. The climate change signals in infiltration excess and evapotranspiration show a nonlinear response to precipitation change. Aridity| expressed by the de Martonne aridity index| does not change significantly. The change signal in precipitation predominantly lies within the range of interannual variability. In contrast| the decrease in April exceeds interannual variability in the Sahel region. 8135,2007,2,4,Historical changes in the phenology of British Odonata are related to climate,Responses of biota to climate change take a number of forms including distributional shifts| behavioural changes and life history changes. This study examined an extensive set of biological records to investigate changes in the timing of life history transitions (specifically emergence) in British Odonata between 1960 and 2004. The results show that there has been a significant| consistent advance in phenology in the taxon as a whole over the period of warming that is mediated by life history traits. British odonates significantly advanced the leading edge (first quartile date) of the flight period by a mean of 1.51 +/- 0.060 (SEM| n=17) days per decade or 3.08 +/- 1.16 (SEM| n=17) days per degree rise in temperature when phylogeny is controlled for. This study represents the first review of changes in odonate phenology in relation to climate change. The results suggest that the damped temperature oscillations experienced by aquatic organisms compared with terrestrial organisms are sufficient to evoke phenological responses similar to those of purely terrestrial taxa. 8266,2007,5,4,Holocene global warming and the origin of the Neotropical Gran Sabana in the Venezuelan Guayana,Aim The assumedly anomalous occurrence of savannas and forest-savanna mosaics in the Gran Sabana - a neotropical region under a climate more suitable for tropical rain forests - has been attributed to a variety of historical| climatic| and anthropogenic factors. This paper describes a previously undocumented shift in vegetation and climate that occurred during the early Holocene| and evaluates its significance for the understanding of the origin of the Gran Sabana vegetation. Location A treeless savanna locality of the Gran Sabana (4 degrees 30'-6 degrees 45' N and 60 degrees 34'-62 degrees 50' W)| in the Venezuelan Guayana of northern South America| at the headwaters of the Caroni river| one of the major tributaries of the Orinoco river. Methods Pollen and charcoal analysis of a previously dated peat section spanning from about the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary until the present. Results Mesothermic cloud forests dominated by Catostemma (Bombacaceae) occupied the site around the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary. During the early Holocene| a progressive but relatively rapid trend towards savanna vegetation occurred| and eventually the former cloud forests were replaced by a treeless savanna. Some time after the establishment of savannas| a marked increase in charcoal particles indicates the occurrence of the first local fires. Main conclusions The occurrence of cloud forests at the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary contradicts the historical hypothesis according to which the Gran Sabana is a relict of the hypothetical widespread savannas that have been assumed to have dominated the region during the last glaciation. The first local fires recorded in the Holocene were on savanna vegetation| which is against the hypothesis of fire as the triggering factor for the establishment of these savannas. Climate change| in the form of global warming and a persistently drier climate| emerges as the most probable cause for the forest-savanna turnover. 8337,2007,2,2,How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?,Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming| one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However| multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes| Northwest Atlantic| and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends| showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones| which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail. 8347,2007,2,4,How far do birds disperse seeds in the degraded tropical landscape of Hong Kong| China?,Information on seed dispersal distances is critical for understanding plant species persistence in habitat fragments and vegetation recovery when disturbance is reduced. In the degraded upland landscape of Hong Kong (22 degrees N)| the bulbuls Pycnonotus sinensis and P. jocosus are responsible for a large proportion of seed movements. Dispersal distances were estimated from gut passage times (GPTs) and movement patterns determined by radio-telemetry. Estimates were also made for the hwamei| Garrulax canorus. Seven adult P. sinensis and four adult G. canorus were tracked in winter| and six juvenile P. sinensis| three juvenile P. jocosus and two juvenile G. canorus in summer. GPTs were 5-122 min in the bulbuls and 18-61 min in the hwamei. Most 10min movements were < 100 m for the bulbuls and < 50 m for the hwamei| but the largest were > 1300 m for both bulbuls and 940 m for the hwamei. Displacement-time graphs generally levelled off rapidly| with median displacements < 60 m after an hour| except with summer juvenile bulbuls. Median displacements during median gut passage times for seeds from single-seeded fruits were 40| 116 and 131 m| respectively| for winter adult P. sinensis and summer juvenile P. sinensis and P. jocosus. Maximum observed displacements during the maximum measured GPTs were > 1 km for all bulbuls. Estimated dispersal distances were shorter for hwameis. The radio-telemetry results were supplemented by 49 h of visual observations| during which 1|510 bird movements across open areas were observed| 64% by P. sinensis| 13% by P. jocosus| and 0.5% by G. canorus. The bulbuls| therefore| connect habitat fragments in upland Hong Kong for plants with fruits within their maximum gape width. 8005,2007,2,4,How much more rain will global warming bring?,Climate models and satellite observations both indicate that the total amount of water in the atmosphere will increase at a rate of 7% per kelvin of surface warming. However| the climate models predict that global precipitation will increase at a much slower rate of 1 to 3% per kelvin. A recent analysis of satellite observations does not support this prediction of a muted response of precipitation to global warming. Rather| the observations suggest that precipitation and total atmospheric water have increased at about the same rate over the past two decades. 7818,2007,3,3,How the next US president should slow global warming,This paper addresses the energy technologies and policies that the next US president should immediately implement to slow global warming. Increased reliance on renewable energy through deployment of a National Renewable Portfolio Standard will help meet increased electrical demand in a sustainable way. Carbon regulation through an internationally fungible cap and trade system will help make renewables more cost competitive with conventional energy. Mandating National Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standards will also help decrease electrical demand and reduce the need for large investments in new generation. Within the transportation sector| plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles should be rapidly deployed to shift this sector's liquid fuel requirements to the electrical grid. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8336,2007,2,4,How unusual was autumn 2006 in Europe?,The temperatures in large parts of Europe have been record high during the meteorological autumn of 2006. Compared to 1961-1990| the 2m temperature was more than three degrees Celsius above normal from the North side of the Alps to southern Norway. This made it by far the warmest autumn on record in the United Kingdom| Belgium| the Netherlands| Denmark| Germany and Switzerland| with the records in Central England going back to 1659| in the Netherlands to 1706 and in Denmark to 1768. The deviations were so large that under the obviously false assumption that the climate does not change| the observed temperatures for 2006 would occur with a probability of less than once every 10 000 years in a large part of Europe| given the distribution defined by the temperatures in the autumn 1901-2005. A better description of the temperature distribution is to assume that the mean changes proportional to the global mean temperature| but the shape of the distribution remains the same. This includes to first order the effects of global warming. Even under this assumption the autumn temperatures were very unusual| with estimates of the return time of 200 to 2000 years in this region. The lower bound of the 95% confidence interval is more than 100 to 300 years. Apart from global warming| linear effects of a southerly circulation are found to give the largest contributions| explaining about half of the anomalies. SST anomalies in the North Sea were also important along the coast. Climate models that simulate the current atmospheric circulation well underestimate the observed mean rise in autumn temperatures. They do not simulate a change in the shape of the distribution that would increase the probability of warm events under global warming. This implies that the warm autumn 2006 either was a very rare coincidence| or the local temperature rise is much stronger than modelled| or non-linear physics that is missing from these models increases the probability of warm extremes. 7986,2007,3,2,HTS machines as enabling technology for all-electric airborne vehicles,Environmental protection has now become paramount as evidence mounts to support the thesis of human activity-driven global warming. A global reduction of the emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere is therefore needed and new technologies have to be considered. A large part of the emissions come from transportation vehicles| including cars| trucks and airplanes| due to the nature of their combustion-based propulsion systems. Our team has been working for several years on the development of high power density superconducting motors for aircraft propulsion and fuel cell based power systems for aircraft. This paper investigates the feasibility of all-electric aircraft based on currently available technology. Electric propulsion would require the development of high power density electric propulsion motors| generators| power management and distribution systems. The requirements in terms of weight and volume of these components cannot be achieved with conventional technologies; however| the use of superconductors associated with hydrogen-based power plants makes possible the design of a reasonably light power system and would therefore enable the development of all-electric aero-vehicles. A system sizing has been performed both for actuators and for primary propulsion. Many advantages would come from electrical propulsion such as better controllability of the propulsion| higher efficiency| higher availability and less maintenance needs. Superconducting machines may very well be the enabling technology for all-electric aircraft development. 7762,2007,4,4,Hurricane destructive power predictions based on historical storm and sea surface temperature data,Forecasting destructive hurricane potential is complicated by substantial| unexplained intraannual variation in storm-specific power dissipation index (PDI| or integrated third power of wind speed)| and interannual variation in annual accumulated PDI (APDI). A growing controversy concerns the recent hypothesis that the clearly positive trend in North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) sea surface temperature (SST) since 1970 explains increased hurricane intensities over this period| and so implies ominous PDI and APDI growth as global warming continues. To test this "SST hypothesis" and examine its quantitative implications| a combination of statistical and probabilistic methods were applied to National Hurricane Center HURDAT best-track data on NAO hurricanes during 1880-2002| and corresponding National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstruction SST estimates. Notably| hurricane behavior was compared to corresponding hurricane-specific (i.e.| spatiotemporally linked) SST; previous similar comparisons considered only SST averaged over large NAO regions. Contrary to the SST hypothesis| SST was found to vary in a monthly pattern inconsistent with that of corresponding PDI| and to be at best weakly associated with PDI or APDI despite strong correlation with corresponding mean latitude (R-2 = 0.55) or with combined mean location and a similar to 90-year periodic trend (R-2 = 0.70). Over the last century| the lower 75% of APDIs appear randomly sampled from a nearly uniform distribution| and the upper 25% of APDIs from a nearly lognormal distribution. From the latter distribution| a baseline (SST-independent) stochastic model was derived predicting that over the next half century| APDI will not likely exceed its maximum value over the last half century by more than a factor of 1.5. This factor increased to 2 using a baseline model modified to assume SST-dependence conditioned on an upper bound of the increasing NAO SST trend observed since 1970. An additional model was developed that predicts PDI statistics conditional on APDI. These PDI and APDI models can be used to estimate upper bounds on indices of hurricane power likely to be realized over the next century| under divergent assumptions regarding SST influence. 7995,2007,2,4,Hurricanes benefit bleached corals,Recent| global mass-mortalities of reef corals due to record warm sea temperatures have led researchers to consider global warming as one of the most significant threats to the persistence of coral reef ecosystems. The passage of a hurricane can alleviate thermal stress on coral reefs| highlighting the potential for hurricane-associated cooling to mitigate climate change impacts. We provide evidence that hurricane-induced cooling was responsible for the documented differences in the extent and recovery time of coral bleaching between the Florida Reef Tract and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the Caribbean-wide 2005 bleaching event. These results are the only known scenario where the effects of a hurricane can benefit a stressed marine community. 1456,2007,3,3,Hydrogen and electricity from coal with carbon dioxide separation using chemical looping reactors,Concern about global climate change has led to research on low CO(2) emission in the process of the energy conversion of fossil fuel. One of the solutions is the conversion of fossil fuel into carbon-free energy carriers| hydrogen| and electricity with CO(2) capture and storage. In this paper| the main purpose is to investigate the thermodynamics performance of converting coal to a hydrogen and electricity system with chemical-looping reactors and to explore the influences of operating parameters on the system performance. Using FeO/Fe(3)O(4) as an oxygen carrier| we propose a carbon-free coproduction system of hydrogen and electricity with chemical-looping reactors. The performance of the new system is simulated using ASPEN PLUS software tool. The influences of the chemical-looping reactor's temperature| steam conversion rate| and O(2)/coal quality ratio on the system performance| and the exergy performance are discussed. The results show that a high-purity of H(2) (99.9%) is reached and that CO(2) can be separated. The system efficiency is 57.85% assuming steam reactor at 815 degrees C and the steam conversion rate 37%. The system efficiency is affected by the steam conversion rate| rising form 53.17 to 58.33% with the increase of the steam conversion rate from 28 to 41%. The exergy efficiency is 54.25% and the losses are mainly in the process of gasification and HRSG. 8146,2007,5,3,Hydrothermal venting of greenhouse gases triggering Early Jurassic global warming,The climate change in the Toarcian (Early Jurassic) was characterized by a major perturbation of the global carbon cycle. The event lasted for approximately 200|000 years and was manifested by a global warming of similar to 6 degrees C| anoxic conditions in the oceans| and extinction of marine species. The triggering mechanisms for the perturbation and environmental change are however strongly debated. Here| we present evidence for a rapid formation and transport of greenhouse gases from the deep sedimentary reservoirs in the Karoo Basin| South Africa. Magmatic sills were emplaced during the initial stages of formation of the Early Jurassic Karoo Large Igneous Province| and had a profound influence on the fate of light elements in the organic-rich sedimentary host rocks. Total organic carbon contents and vitrinite reflectivity data from contact aureoles around the sills show that organic carbon was lost from the country rocks during heating. We present data from a new type of geological structures| termed breccia pipes| rooted in the aureoles within the shale of the Western Karoo Basin. The breccia pipes are cylindrical structures up to 150 meters in diameter and are mainly comprised of brecciated and baked black shale. Thousands of breccia pipes were formed due to gas pressure build-up during metamorphism of the shales| resulting in venting of greenhouse gases to the Toarcian atmosphere. Mass balance calculations constrained by new aureole data show that up to 1800 Gt of CO2 was formed from organic material in the western Karoo Basin. About 15 times this amount of CO2 (27|400 Gt) may have formed in the entire basin during the intrusive event. U-Pb dating of zircons from a sill related to many of the pipes demonstrates that the magma was emplaced 182.5+/-0.4 million years ago. This supports a causal relationship between the intrusive volcanism| the gas venting| and the Toarcian global warming. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8183,2007,2,4,Ice-associated phytoplankton blooms in the southeastern Bering Sea,Ice-associated phytoplankton blooms in the southeastern Bering Sea can critically impact the food web structure| from lower tropic level production to marine fisheries. By coupling pelagic and sea ice algal components| our 1-D ecosystem model successfully reproduced the observed ice-associated blooms in 1997 and 1999 at the NOAA/PMEL mooring M2. The model results suggest that the ice-associated blooms were seeded by sea ice algae released from melting sea ice. For an ice-associated bloom to grow and reach the typical magnitude of phytoplankton bloom in the region| ice melting-resulted low-salinity stratification must not be followed by a strong mixing event that would destroy the stratification. The ice-associated blooms had little impacts on the annual primary production| but had significant impacts in terms of shifting phytoplankton species| and the timing and magnitude of the bloom. These changes| superimposed on a gradual ecosystem shift attributed to global warming| can dramatically alter the Bering Sea ecosystem. 8222,2007,2,4,Ice-borne prehistoric finds in the Swiss Alps reflect Holocene glacier fluctuations,During the hot summer of 2003| reduction of an ice field in the Swiss Alps (Schnidejoch) uncovered spectacular archaeological hunting gear| fur| leather and woollen clothing and tools from four distinct windows of time: Neolithic Age (4900 to 4450 cal. yr BP)| early Bronze Age (4100-3650 cal. yr BP)| Roman Age (1st-3rd century AD)| and Medieval times (8-9th century AD and 14-15th century AD). Transalpine routes connecting northern Italy with the northern Alps during these slots is consistent with late Holocene maximum glacier retreat. The age cohorts of the artefacts are separated which is indicative of glacier advances when the route was difficult and not used for transit. The preservation of Neolithic leather indicates permanent ice cover at that site from ca. 4900 cal. yr BP until AD 2003| implying that the ice cover was smaller in 2003 than at any time during the last 5000 years. Current glacier retreat is unprecedented since at least that time. This is highly significant regarding the interpretation of the recent warming and the rapid loss of ice in the Alps. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 1530,2007,2,4,Impact of changes in rainfall amounts predicted by climate-change models on decomposition in a deciduous forest,Climate-change models predicta more intense hydrological cycle| with both increased and decreased amounts of rainfall in areas covered with temperate deciduous forests. These changes could alter rates of litter decomposition| with consequences for rates of nutrient cycling in the forest ecosystem. To examine impacts of predicted changes in precipitation on the rate of decay of canopy leaves| we placed litterbags in replicated| fenced 14 m(2) low-rainfall and high-rainfall plots located under individual rainout shelters. Unfenced| open plots served as an ambient treatment. Litter in the high-rainfall and ambient plots decayed 50% and 78% faster| respectively| than litter in the low-rainfall plots. Litter in the ambient plots disappeared 20% faster than in the high-rainfall treatment| perhaps via greater leaching during heavy rainfall events. Ambient rainfall during the experiment was similar in total amount to the high-rainfall treatment| but was more variable in intensity and timing. We used litterbags of different mesh sizes to examine whether changes in rainfall might alter the impacts of major categories of the fauna on litter decay. However| we found no consistent evidence that excluding arthropods of different sizes affected litter decay rate within any of the three rainfall treatments. This research reveals that changes in rainfall predicted to occur with global climate change will likely strongly alter rates of litter decay in deciduous forests. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8041,2007,2,2,Impact of climate change on agriculture in Africa by 2030,Concerns about climate change are global and real. As all communities try to get adapted to the challenges of their local climate| they are today sensitive to its variations. Third World countries| particularly Africa are threatened by the predicted effects of climate change because of their economic dependence on climate for development whose backbone is agriculture. There is strong evidence from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)| Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) that the observed increases in greenhouse gases particularly Carbon dioxide (CO2) may lead to global warming| sea level rise and space-time changes in climatic zones and seasons on the globe. To come up with climate change associated impacts on agriculture in Africa| the study evaluated climate related researches conducted on snow capped mountains in Africa (Mt Kilimanjaro)| fishing in inland lakes (Lake Victoria| Baringo)| Agriculture in the Semi-arid lands of East Africa and irrigation projects in Africa (Gezira in Egypt) It was established that Africa is already experiencing the devastating impacts of climate change as seen in frequent floods and droughts and shift in marginal agricultural systems. If the predicted temperature increase of 4.5 degrees centigrade is realized by the year 2030| then agricultural systems in Africa will be seriously affected particularly the food security section. There will be reduced land for agriculture because the high agricultural potential areas will become arid| Coastal areas will be submerged| affecting fishing and human settlement| there will be increased desertification and disappearance of ice and snow on the mountains. The effects of climate change may include: reduced agricultural land use due to submergence of coastal regions and increased aridity in the tropical high agricultural potential regions| there will be increased incidences of farm pests and diseases| over cultivation| food insecurity and poverty especially in Tropical regions. Africa will face serious challenges in her endeavor to adapt to new mechanisms of food production for sustainable development. 1470,2007,2,4,Impact of climate change on crop water demand and its implication on water resources planning : Bangladesh perspective,An investigation was made on the response of evapotranspiration (representation of crop water demand) due to possible changes in climatic parameters at three locations of Bangladesh. The results suggest an increase of 11 to 15 % of total ET demand with an increase in maximum temperature (in isolation) by 20 %. Increase of 10% in temperature alone with 10 % decrease in bright sunshine hour (SH) and wind speed (WS) could result even in marginal increase in total ET (3.1%). A 10% increase in temperature coupled with 10 % increase in SH| WS| and 15 % decrease in relative humidity could result in 18.5 % increase in annual ET Any change in evapotranspiration will be likely to have a profound effect on agriculture and water resource planning. It is the time for planners/users to think in terms of expected change in water requirement due to global climate change while planning for development of future water resources. A wide spectrum climate change scenario is discussed in the paper as guideline for future development and planning of water resources. 8297,2007,2,4,Impact of Climate change on Milk production of Murrah buffaloes,Global warming is likely to impact productivity of buffaloes due to their sensitivity to temperature changes. Air temperature| humidity| wind velocity and solar radiation are the main climate variables that affect buffalo production in tropical climate. In the present study sensitivity of lactating Murrah buffaloes to sudden temperature (Tmax| Tmin) change and THI have been analyzed from milk production and climatic records (1994-2004) of Karnal. Algorithms were developed and validated on lactating buffaloes during 2005-2006 at the Institute. A sudden change (rise or fall) in Maximum/Minimum temperature during summer and winter was observed to affect milk production. The decline in minimum temperature (>3 degrees C) during winter and increase (>4 degrees C) during summer than normal were observed to negatively impact milk production upto 30% on the next or subsequent days after extreme event. The return to normal milk production depended on severity and time period of thermal stress/ event occurrence. The R(2) was very low for cool period observed during Feb- April/Sept-Nov and actual effect on milk production was minimum. This indicated that low THI had a relatively small effect on milk production performance. The lactation period of animals are shortened during extreme summer when THI were more than 80 and reproductive functions were also adversely affected. Thermal stressed buffaloes did not exhibit estrus or exhibited estrus for short period. The potential direct effects of possible climate change and global warming on summer season milk production of Murrah buffaloes were evaluated using widely known global circulation model UKMO to represent possible scenarios of future climate. Both milk production and reproductive functions of Murrah buffaloes are likely to be affected due to warming effects. 7940,2007,2,2,Impact of climate change on transboundary water sharing,The issue of climate change has surfaced as a potential impediment to effective long-range policies and management of water resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published a report substantiating the argument that global warming is occurring. The IPCC reported that while sustainable water yields may or may not be reduced in the long-term average| they will almost certainly be less reliable in the short term. Climate change challenges existing water resources management practices by adding uncertainty. This will be an especially troubling issue for transboundary water sharing agreements. The risks imposed by climate change to transboundary water sharing agreements are discussed and the agreements most at risk are identified by the region in which they are located. 1503,2007,2,4,Impact of climate change on water resources in Yongdam Dam Basin| Korea,The main purpose of this study is to investigate and evaluate the impact of climate change on the runoff and water resources of Yongdam basin| Korea. First| we construct global climate change scenarios using the YONU GCM control run and transient experiments| then transform the YONU GCM grid-box predictions with coarse resolution of climate change into the site-specific values by statistical downscaling techniques. The downscaled values are used to modify the parameters of a stochastic weather generator model for the simulation of the site-specific daily weather time series. The weather series is fed into a semi-distributed hydrological model called SLURP to simulate the streamflows associated with other water resources for the condition of 2CO(2). This approach is applied to the Yongdam dam basin in the southern part of Korea. The results show that under the condition of 2CO(2)| about 7.6% of annual mean streamflow is reduced when it is compared with the current condition. Seasonal streamflows in the winter and autumn are increased| while streamflow in the summer is decreased. However| the seasonality of the simulated series is similar to the observed pattern 8062,2007,2,4,Impact of climatic fluctuations on Characeae biomass in a shallow| restored lake in The Netherlands,External phosphorus load to a wetland with two shallow lakes in the Botshol Nature Reserve| The Netherlands| was reduced| resulting in a rapid reduction of phytoplankton biomass and turbidity| and after 4 years| explosive growth of Characeae. The clear water state was unstable| however| and the ecosystem then alternated between clear| high-vegetation and turbid| low-vegetation states. A model of water quality processes was used in conjunction with a 14-year nutrient budget for Botshol to determine if fluctuations in precipitation and nutrient load caused the ecosystem instability. The results indicate that| during wet winters when groundwater level rose above surface water level| phosphorus from runoff was stored in the lake bottom and banks. Stored phosphorus was released the following spring and summer under anaerobic sediment conditions| resulting in increased phytoplankton density and light attenuation in the water column. During years with high net precipitation| flow from land to surface water also transported humic acids| further increasing light attenuation. In years with dry winters| the phosphorus and humic acid loads to surface water were reduced| and growth of submerged macrophytes was enhanced by clear water. Thus| the temporal pattern of precipitation and flow from land to water gave a coherent| quantitative explanation of the observed dynamics in phosphorus| phytoplankton| turbidity| and Characeae. Global warming has caused winters in The Netherlands to become warmer and wetter during the last 50 years| increasing flow from land to water of humic acids and phosphorus and| ultimately| enhancing instability of Characeae populations. In the first half of the 20th century interannual variation in precipitation was not sufficient to cause large changes in internal P flux in Botshol| and submerged macrophyte populations were stable. 1411,2007,2,4,Impact of global climate change on regional air quality: Introduction to the thematic issue,Despite the major international efforts devoted to the understanding and to the future estimate of global climate change and its impact on regional scale processes| the evolution of the atmospheric composition in a changing climate is far to be understood. In particular| the future evolution of the concentration of near-surface pollutants determining air quality at a scale affecting human health and ecosystems is a subject of intense scientific research. This thematic issue reviews the current scientific knowledge of the consequences of global climate change on regional air quality and its related impact on the biosphere and on human mortality. This article provides a presentation of the key issues| summarizes the current knowledge| and introduces the thematic issue. 8239,2007,4,3,Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming,Speculations on the impact of variations in surface solar radiation on global warming range from concerns that solar dimming has largely masked the full magnitude of greenhouse warming| to claims that the recent reversal from solar dimming to brightening rather than the greenhouse effect was responsible for the observed warming. To disentangle surface solar and greenhouse influences on global warming| trends in diurnal temperature range are analyzed. They suggest that solar dimming was effective in masking greenhouse warming| but only up to the 1980s| when dimming gradually transformed into brightening. Since then| the uncovered greenhouse effect has revealed its full dimension| as manifested in a rapid temperature rise (+ 0.38 degrees C/ decade over land since mid-1980s). Recent solar brightening cannot supersede the greenhouse effect as main cause of global warming| since land temperatures increased by 0.8 degrees C from 1960 to 2000| even though solar brightening did not fully outweigh solar dimming within this period. 7916,2007,2,4,Impact of global warming on a group of related species and their hybrids: Cherry tree (Rosaceae) flowering at Mt. Takao| Japan,Climate change is affecting plant phenology worldwide. Phenological responses vary among species| but it is not clear how responses differ among closely related species. We examined a 25-yr record (1981-2005) of flowering times for 97 trees| representing 17 species and hybrids of cherry (Cerasus sp. or Prunus sp.) grown at Mt. Takao| in Tokyo| Japan. The cherry trees flowered earlier over time| by an average of 5.5 d over the 25-yr study. Earlier flowering was explained largely by a 1.8 degrees C increase in February-March mean monthly temperatures. Most species and hybrids flowered 3-5 d earlier for each 1 degrees C increase in temperature| but early-flowering taxa flowered as much as 9 d earlier for each VC increase in temperature. Flowering durations and differences in flowering times among species were greater in warm years than in cold years. Species and individual trees also flowered longer in warm years. These results show that the flowering times of closely related species may change similarly in response to climate change| but that early-flowering species may diverge from the overall trend in a predictable way. Such changes in flowering may affect gene flow and pollination as the length of the flowering season increases. 1535,2007,2,4,Impact of local temperature increase on the early development of biofilm-associated ciliate communities,Indications of global climate change and associated unusual temperature fluctuations have become increasingly obvious over the past few decades. Consequently| the relevance of temperature increases for ecological communities and for whole ecosystems is one of the major challenges of current ecological research. One approach to investigating the effects of increasing temperatures on communities is the use of fast-growing microbial communities. Here we introduce a river bypass system in which we tested the effect of temperature increases (0| 2| 4| 6 degrees C above the long-term average) on both the colonization speed and the carrying capacity of biofilm-associated ciliate communities under different seasonal scenarios. We further investigated interactions of temperature and resource availability by cross-manipulations in order to test the hypothesis that temperature-mediated effects will be strongest in environments that are not resource-limited. Strong seasonal differences in both tested parameters occurred under natural conditions (no resource addition)| and the effects of temperature increase at a given time were relatively low. However| increasing temperature can significantly accelerate the colonization speed and reduce the carrying capacity in particular seasons. These effects were strongest in winter. Simultaneous manipulation of temperature and of resource availability amplified the response to temperature increase| adumbrating strong interactive control of populations by temperature and resource availability. Our results show that the response of communities to local temperature increases strongly depends on the seasonal setting| the resource availability and the stage of succession (early colonization speed vs. carrying capacity). 1498,2007,2,4,Impact of predicted climate change on landslide reactivation: case study of Mam Tor| UK,Global change is expected to result in worldwide increases in temperature and alteration of rainfall patterns. Such changes have the potential to modify stability of slopes| both natural and constructed. This paper discusses the potential effect of global climate change on reactivation of landslides through examination of predicted changes in rainfall pattern on the active landslide at Mam Tor| Derbyshire| UK. This landslide is of Pleistocene origin and is crossed by a road that is now abandoned. Damaging winter movement is known to occur when precipitation reaches both 1-month triggering and 6-month antecedent thresholds. Return periods for threshold exceedence is modelled statistically| and the climate change data from the UKCIP 2002 report (Hulme et al. 2002) is applied to this model. For the predicted changes in precipitation| it is shown that the instability threshold could decrease from 4 to 3.5 years by the 2080s for the medium-high climate change scenario. However| predicted temperature changes could influence the response of the landslide through increased evapotranspiration leading to a change in the triggering precipitation thresholds| and this will help counter the impact of changes in precipitation. Analysis of sources of uncertainty in the model has been used to establish the factors that contribute to the predicted changes in stability. Assessment of these factors can provide an indication of the potential impact of climate change on landslides in other areas of the UK. 7994,2007,2,4,Impact of the global warming on the fluvial thermal erosion over the Lena river in Central Siberia,The hydrology of the Lena and its tributaries is characterized by an extremely episodic flow regime. Here we report recent climatic change in Central Siberia| and its impact on the fluvial thermal erosion. We point out three major changes since the 1980s: a marked reduction of the river ice thickness in winter| a pronounced increase of the water stream temperature in spring and a slight increase of the discharge during the break up ( May - June). A GIS analysis based on aerial pictures and satellite images highlights the impact of the water warming on the frozen banks. The vegetated islands appear to be very sensitive to the water temperature increase| showing an acceleration of their head retreat (+ 21 - 29%). This suggests that recent global warming directly affects the fluvial dynamics and the erosional process of one of the largest arctic fluvial system. 7857,2007,3,4,Impacts from decommissioning of hydroelectric dams: a life cycle perspective,Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from hydroelectric dams are often portrayed as nonexistent by the hydropower industry and have been largely ignored in global comparisons of different sources of electricity. However| the life cycle assessment (LCA) of any hydroelectric plant shows that GHG emissions occur at different phases of the power plant's life. This work examines the role of decommissioning hydroelectric dams in greenhouse gas emissions. Accumulated sediments in reservoirs contain noticeable levels of carbon| which may be released to the atmosphere upon decommissioning of the dam. The rate of sediment accumulation and the sediment volume for six of the ten largest United States hydroelectric power plants is surveyed. The amount of sediments and the respective carbon content at the moment of dam decommissioning (100 years after construction) was estimated. The released carbon is partitioned into CO2 and CH4 emissions and converted to CO2 equivalent emissions using the global warming potential (GWP) method. The global warming effect (GWE) due to dam decommissioning is normalized to the total electricity produced over the lifetime of each power plant. The estimated GWE of the power plants range from 128-380 g of CO(2)eq./kWh when 11% of the total available sediment organic carbon (SOC) is mineralized and between 35 and 104 g of CO(2)eq./kWh when 3% of the total SOC is mineralized. Though these values are below emission factors for coal power plants (890 g of CO(2)eq./kWh)| the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by the sediments upon dam decommissioning is a notable amount that should not be ignored and must be taken into account when considering construction and relicensing of hydroelectric dams. 1431,2007,2,4,Impacts of climate change on regional hydrological regimes in the spokane river watershed,This study develops and implements a methodology to estimate the impacts of global climate change on regional hydrological regimes using ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst. The model is easily used and can be expanded to different watersheds. The ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst interface provides a comprehensive set of tools for creating surfaces from measured sample points compared with the previous method of using adjustable tension continuous curvature surface gridding. As a result| users can rapidly compare different interpolation techniques in order to obtain the best solution. Model results can subsequently be used in GIS models for visualization and analyses. The methodology was applied to the Spokane River Watershed. Results indicate that a 30% precipitation increase causes a 50% increase of streamflow when the temperature is normal compared to only a 20-30% increase in streamflow if the average annual air temperature is 1.5 degrees C higher than normal. Conversely| a 20% precipitation decrease results in approximately 25-30% less streamflow when the temperature is normal but a 45% decrease in streamflow if the temperature is 1.5 degrees C higher than normal. These research results can be used as reference conditions for long-term watershed water management strategies under global warming scenarios. The precipitation elasticity of runoff is also investigated. The precipitation elasticity was found to be 1.67 although it varied with precipitation and temperature. 7769,2007,2,4,Impacts of climate variability on stream-flow in the Yellow River,This paper examines the impacts of climate variability upon the regional hydrological regimes of the Yellow River in China. Results indicate that the average annual precipitation is 494.8 rnm in La Nina years and only 408.8 turn in El Nino years. The difference is 86.0 mm| or 18.8% over the long-term average. The stream-flows in the La Nina years are higher than that in El Nino years: 9.2% at the Lan-Zhou station| 9-5% for Tou-Dao-Guai station| 11.8% for Long-Men| 17-6% for San-Men-Xia| 19.2% at the Hua-Yuan-Hou station| and 22.0% at the Li-Jin station. Both precipitation and stream-flow responses show temporal and spatial patterns. The relationship among the stream-flow| precipitation| and temperature| which was obtained by ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst based on observed data| indicates stream-flow is sensitive to both precipitation and temperature. For small precipitation increases (less than 13%)| the stream-flow percentage change is less than the precipitation change for the Yellow River. The results of this paper can be used as a reference for watershed water resources planning and management to maintain the healthy life and proper function of the river. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 7908,2007,2,4,Impacts of elevated water carbon dioxide partial pressure at two temperatures on Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) parr growth and haematology,Atlantic salmon (Salnio salai L.) parr (10-13 g) were exposed to two levels of carbon dioxide partial pressure (0.3-0.5 mmHg| control group and 12 mm Hg| high group) at two different temperatures (5 degrees C and 15 degrees C) for 47 days in an open flow system. Fish density was low in all groups (less than 7-8 kg m(-3)) and the specific water flow was high (higher than 1 L kg(-1) min(-1)) to avoid accumulation of other metabolites. Sodium bicarbonate was added to the water with high carbon dioxide concentration| stabilizing the pH in the range 6.4-6.9 for all four groups. Final mean weight| length and condition factor of the high carbon dioxide groups were significantly reduced compared to their respective control group (p < 0.05). The reduction in specific growth rate was more pronounced at 5 T than at 15 T. At 5 T there was almost no growth at elevated carbon dioxide concentrations| with mean reduction in weight of 80% relative to the control group. The weight reduction caused by high carbon dioxide concentration was much less at 15 degrees C (approx 30%) even though the oxygen saturation was lowest in this group. Significant gill lesions| mortality and nephrocalcinosis were not detected in any group. Red blood cell count did not differ between the groups. However| erythrocyte volume declined and erythrocyte haemoglobin content increased in fish exposed to high water carbon dioxide levels at low temperature. The present investigation showed that the impact of elevated carbon dioxide was lowest in the high temperature group. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7809,2007,4,4,Impacts of external forcing on the 20th century global warming,The impacts of external forcing| including natural and anthropogenic| on the 20th century global warming were assessed with the use of the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG Version 1.1.0| following the standard coordinated experiment design of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) International Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C)| Phase II. The results indicate that external forcing plays an important role in the evolution of the land surface air temperature on interannual| decadal| and interdecadal time scales| and contributes greatly to the global warming in the following two periods: the early twentieth century between the 1910s and the 1940s and the late twentieth century after the 1970s. External forcing also has strong impact on the regional temperature change during the two warming periods except for parts of the Eurasia and the North America continents. In the cooling period| however| the impact of internal variability is dominant. 8227,2007,2,4,Impacts of global changes and extreme hydroclimatic events on macroinvertebrate community structures in the French Rhone River,We assessed the temporal changes in and the relationships between the structures of the macroinvertebrate communities and the environmental conditions of the French Rhone River (the river from Lake Geneva to the Mediterranean Sea) over the last 20 years (1985-2004). Multisite environmental and biological datasets were analysed using multiple CO-inertia analysis (MCOA) and Procrustean analysis. Changes in environmental conditions were mainly marked by an improvement in water quality between 1985 and 1991 and by an increase in water temperature from 1985 onwards due to climate change. Improvement in water quality seemed to delay changes in community structures under global warming. We then observed trends in community structures coupled with high temperatures and a decrease in oxygen content. Interestingly| we observed both gradual changes and rapid switches in community states. These shifts seemed coupled to extreme hydroclimatic events (i.e. pulse disturbances). Floods and the 2003 heatwave enhanced the development of eurytolerant and invasive taxa which were probably able to take advantage of gradual warming environmental conditions. Despite various site-specific "press" constraints (e.g. hydropower schemes| nuclear power plants)| similar changes in community structures were observed along the French Rhone River. Such consistency in temporal processes at large geographical scales underlined the strength of hydroclimatic constraints on community dynamics compared to specific local disturbances. Finally| community structures did not show any sign of recovery| and their relative sensitivities to extreme hydroclimatic events seemed to increase with time. Thus| our results suggest that global changes may reduce the resilience of current community states. 1451,2007,3,4,Impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations over the United States,[1] Simulated future summers (i.e.| 2049-2051) and annual (i.e.| 2050) average regional O-3 and PM2.5 concentrations over the United States are compared with historic ( i.e.| 2000-2002 summers and all of 2001) levels to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional air quality. Meteorological inputs to the CMAQ chemical transport model are developed by downscaling the GISS Global Climate Model simulations using an MM5-based regional climate model. Future-year emissions for North America are developed by growing the U. S. EPA CAIR inventory| Mexican and Canadian emissions and by using the IMAGE model with the IPCC A1B emissions scenario that is also used in projecting future climate. Reductions of more than 50% in NOX and SO2 emissions are forecast. Impacts of global climate change alone on regional air quality are small compared to impacts from emission control-related reductions| although increases in pollutant concentrations due to stagnation and other factors are found. The combined effect of climate change and emission reductions lead to a 20% decrease (regionally varying from -11% to -28%) in the mean summer maximum daily 8-hour ozone levels (M8hO(3)) over the United States. Mean annual PM2.5 concentrations are estimated to be 23% lower (varies from -9% to -32%). Major reductions in sulfate| nitrate and ammonium PM2.5 components combined with the limited reduction in organic carbon suggests that organic carbon will be the dominant component of PM2.5 mass in the future. Regionally| the eastern United States benefits more than the rest of the regions from reductions in both M8hO(3) and PM2.5| because of both spatial variations in the meteorological and emissions changes. Reduction in the higher M8hO(3) concentrations is also estimated for all subregions and fewer days with M8hO(3) above the air quality standards in urban sites with Atlanta in the southeast benefiting most. 8307,2007,3,4,Implementing technologies for reducing PFC emissions,US semiconductor-related PFC emissions represented similar to 0.11% of overall greenhouse gas sources in 2000. However| due to the long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming potentials of PFCs| the World Semiconductor Council (WSC) agreed in 1999 to reduce emissions by up to 90% by 2010. Emission reduction targets are based on the mass carbon equivalent (CE) of PFC gases emitted in a given-region. For Europe| US and Japan| PFC emissions must be reduced 10% below the 1995 emission baseline by 2010. For Korea| the baseline year is 1997 abd fir Taiwan| it is 1998. This study shows that a combination of process improvements as well as abatement actions can reduce PFC emissions and increase productivity and cost savings. 8277,2007,2,4,Implication of site quality on mitochondrial electron transport activity and its interaction with temperature in feral Mya arenaria clams from the Saguenay Fjord,The advent of global warming has given rise to questions about the impact of temperature/pollution interactions on the integrity of certain benthic organisms like bivalves. This interaction was examined in intertidal Mya arenaria clams from the Saguenay Fjord using the concepts of cellular energy allocation and temperature-dependent mitochondrial electron transport (METT) activity. Clams were collected at low tide from six sites (two clean| four polluted) for determinations of condition factor (weight/shell length)| growth index (age-to-length ratio)| gonadal lipids and maturation index| gonad MET at various habitat temperatures| METT| gill xanthine oxidase and gill DNA damage. Condition factor was generally lower at the four polluted sites| with growth index being severely affected at two of them. Gonadal maturation was also significantly dampened at two of the four pollution-impacted sites. Gill xanthine oxidase (purine bases salvage pathway) and DNA strand breaks were significantly increased at most of the polluted sites| confirming pollution-mediated damage in clams. Moreover| MET at 20 degrees C| METT and gonad lipids were significantly induced at the polluted sites. Clam condition factor was negatively correlated with most of the biomarkers for cellular energy allocation (gonadal lipids| MET and METT) but not with gonadal maturation. DNA damage and xanthine oxidase were positively correlated with MET at 20 degrees C and METT. This is the first report of electron transport in mitochondria being more sensitive to incremental temperature increases in clams under pollution stress. The gradual warming of clam habitats would likely worsen the impacts of pollution in feral clam populations. Crown Copyright (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 8015,2007,3,4,Implications of land ecosystem-atmosphere interactions for strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation,The standard approach to predicting climate change| assessing its impacts and planning mitigation strategies tends to be compartmentalized| leading to inadequate or incomplete advice for climate policy. Climate models used for future global warming predictions and attribution of past changes generally consider only global climate drivers| ignoring local drivers| such as land use change and urban effects. Impacts studies are generally carried out in isolation from each other and hence ignore interactions between different impacts sectors| such as hydrology| natural ecosystems and agriculture. Feedbacks from impacts to climate change| which often involve land ecosystem- atmosphere interactions| are often neglected. This can result in representations of global changes that are at best inconsistent and at worst completely misleading. Moreover| a number of climate change mitigation strategies| such as carbon sequestration and biofuels involve changes in land ecosystems. In addition to affecting climate through the exchange of carbon with the atmosphere| these land ecosystem changes may affect climate change or its impacts through a variety of additional processes| such as surface albedo change or changes in the surface moisture budget. Failure to account for these may have consequences that are potentially at odds with the aims of climate change mitigation. 7962,2007,2,2,Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model,Previous climate model projections of climate change accounted for external forcing from natural and anthropogenic sources but did not attempt to predict internally generated natural variability. We present a new modeling system that predicts both internal variability and externally forced changes and hence forecasts surface temperature with substantially improved skill throughout a decade| both globally and in many regions. Our system predicts that internal variability will partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the next few years. However| climate will continue to warm| with at least half of the years after 2009 predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record. 7902,2007,5,4,Increased terrestrial methane cycling at the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum,The Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM)| a period of intense| global warming about 55 million years ago(1)| has been attributed to a rapid rise in greenhouse gas levels| with dissociation of methane hydrates being the most commonly invoked explanation(2). It has been suggested previously that high-latitude methane emissions from terrestrial environments could have enhanced the warming effect(3|4)| but direct evidence for an increased methane flux from wetlands is lacking. The Cobham Lignite| a recently characterized expanded lacustrine/mire deposit in England| spans the onset of the PETM5 and therefore provides an opportunity to examine the biogeochemical response of wet-land-type ecosystems at that time. Here we report the occurrence of hopanoids| biomarkers derived from bacteria| in the mire sediments from Cobham. We measure a decrease in the carbon isotope values of the hopanoids at the onset of the PETM interval| which suggests an increase in the methanotroph population. We propose that this reflects an increase in methane production potentially driven by changes to a warmer(1|6) and wetter climate(7|8). Our data suggest that the release of methane from the terrestrial biosphere increased and possibly acted as a positive feedback mechanism to global warming. 8152,2007,2,2,Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming,To help understand possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on hurricane activity| we assess model-projected changes in large-scale environmental factors tied to variations in hurricane statistics. This study focuses on vertical wind shear (V(s)) over the tropical Atlantic during hurricane season| the increase of which has been historically associated with diminished hurricane activity and intensity. A suite of state-of-the-art global climate model experiments is used to project changes in V(s) over the 21st century. Substantial increases in tropical Atlantic and East Pacific shear are robust features of these experiments| and are shown to be connected to the model-projected decrease in the Pacific Walker circulation. The relative changes in shear are found to be comparable to those of other large-scale environmental parameters associated with Atlantic hurricane activity. The influence of these V(s) changes should be incorporated into projections of long-term hurricane activity. 8093,2007,2,4,Increasing abundance and diversity in the moth assemblage of east Loch Lomondside| Scotland over a 35 year period,Macro-moths caught in a Rothamsted trap| operating from 1968 to 2003 as part of the Rothamsted Insect Survey| were used to investigate the long-term population trends of moth populations on East Loch Lomondside. In total 367 species of macro moth were recorded during this study. Over the 35 years of this study| an increase was recorded in both the overall number of individuals and moth diversity. Mean annual temperature significantly predicted the change in moth diversity but not number of individuals caught. Four of the most consistently abundant species| collectively constituting 27% of the average annual catch| were subjected to more detailed analysis. The three species that emerge during the summer months Eulithis populata (the northern spinach)| Hydriomena furcata (july highflier) and Idaea biselata (the small fan-footed wave) became more abundant throughout the study period| (although for the latter species not significantly so). For Eulithis populata and Idaea biselata their emergence time became earlier| over the study period and in Eulithis populata and Hydriomena furcata| the flight duration also became longer. In contrast| the species that emerges as an adult during autumn and winter| Epirrita dilutata (the november moth) did not exhibit a significant change in abundance| emergence date or flight duration in this study. The results suggest that climate change is at least in part| responsible for the observed changes in species dynamics. 7729,2007,2,3,Indicators of 21st century socioclimatic exposure,Policies that attempt to curb greenhouse gas emissions| allocate emissions rights| or distribute compensation to those most damaged by climate change must explicitly incorporate the international heterogeneity of the climate change threat. To capture the distinct susceptibilities associated with lack of infrastructure| potential property loss| and gross human exposure| we develop an integration of climate change projections and poverty| wealth| and population metrics. Our analysis shows that most nations of the world are threatened by the interaction of regional climatic changes with one or more relevant socioeconomic factors. Nations that have the highest levels of poverty| wealth| and population face greater relative exposure in those dimensions. However| for each of those socioeconomic indicators| spatial heterogeneity in projected climate change determines the overall international pattern of socioclimatic exposure. Our synthesis provides a critical missing piece to the climate change debate and should facilitate the formulation of climate policies that account for international variations in the threat of climate change across a range of socioeconomic dimensions. 7958,2007,4,2,Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink,The evolution of the Earth's climate over the twenty- first century depends on the rate at which anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are removed from the atmosphere by the ocean and land carbon cycles(1). Coupled climate - carbon cycle models suggest that global warming will act to limit the land- carbon sink(2)| but these first generation models neglected the impacts of changing atmospheric chemistry. Emissions associated with fossil fuel and biomass burning have acted to approximately double the global mean tropospheric ozone concentration(3)| and further increases are expected over the twenty- first century(4). Tropospheric ozone is known to damage plants| reducing plant primary productivity and crop yields(5)| yet increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are thought to stimulate plant primary productivity(6). Increased carbon dioxide and ozone levels can both lead to stomatal closure| which reduces the uptake of either gas| and in turn limits the damaging effect of ozone and the carbon dioxide fertilization of photosynthesis(6). Here we estimate the impact of projected changes in ozone levels on the land- carbon sink| using a global land carbon cycle model modified to include the effect of ozone deposition on photosynthesis and to account for interactions between ozone and carbon dioxide through stomatal closure(7). For a range of sensitivity parameters based on manipulative field experiments| we find a significant suppression of the global land- carbon sink as increases in ozone concentrations affect plant productivity. In consequence| more carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere. We suggest that the resulting indirect radiative forcing by ozone effects on plants could contribute more to global warming than the direct radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone increases. 8385,2007,3,3,Industrial farming of CO2 from cement kilns into biomass,Reuse of CO2 by means of biomass firing in cement kilns can be a promising response to global warming. A number of initiatives have been started to evolve the method and to produce biofuels from algae. Now| Associated Cement Companies Ltd. ACC| under the APP6 project| is going to develop a method for the use of biomass for kiln firing by developing a design for a bioreactor to utilize the CO2 from its cement plants and produce oil bearing algae. 8295,2007,2,4,Inference of trends in time series,We consider statistical inference of trends in mean non-stationary models. A test statistic is proposed for the existence of structural breaks in trends. On the basis of a strong invariance principle of stationary processes| we construct simultaneous confidence bands with asymptotically correct nominal coverage probabilities. The results are applied to global warming temperature data and Nile river flow data. Our confidence band of the trend of the global warming temperature series supports the claim that the trend is increasing over the last 150 years. 7781,2007,2,2,Influence of Arctic Oscillation towards the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature variability under the global warming scenario,Future projection of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) signature and its significance towards the northern hemispheric surface temperature trend have been examined using 20 state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) outputs forced under the IPCC SRES-A1B and 20C3M emission scenario. Models are mostly successful in simulating the observed AO structure and the corresponding surface temperature variability. It is found that while AO exhibits a large positive trend| especially during the autumn season with a relatively smaller trend during the winter and spring seasons. In all seasons the interannual variance in AO remains the same for both scenarios. These features in the time-series leads to two distinct patterns of temperature variability. One is the "polar amplification" pattern due to the long-term anthropogenic forcing| which is much larger in its amplitude. Another is related to the natural variability of the AO| which is confined over the land surface and is marked by a dipole pattern of temperature between the Eurasian continent and Greenland. It is argued that the gradual trend in the AO is not a result of enhanced natural variability of the AO dynamics itself| but rather a result of the large anthropogenic forced linear trend projected onto the mean climatological state of the Arctic region. Distinguishing these two patterns of warming is crucial for detecting the signal of future global warming trend over the Eurasian continent and other regions. 7869,2007,2,3,Influence of direct sulfate-aerosol radiative forcing on the results of numerical experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity,The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is extended by a block for the direct anthropogenic sulfate-aerosol (SA) radiative forcing. Numerical experiments have been performed with prescribed scenarios of the greenhouse and anthropogenic sulfate radiative forcings from observational estimates for the 19th and 20th centuries and from SRES scenarios A1B| A2| and B1 for the 21st century. The globally averaged direct anthropogenic SA radiative forcing F (ASA) by the end of the 20th century relative to the preindustrial state is -0.34 W/m(2)| lying within the uncertainty range of the corresponding present-day estimates. The absolute value of F (ASA) is the largest in Europe| North America| and southeastern Asia. A general increase in direct radiative forcing in the numerical experiments that have been performed continues until the mid-21st century. With both the greenhouse and the sulfate loadings included| the global climate warming in the model is 1.5-2.8 K by the end of the 21st century relative to the late 20th century| depending on the scenario| and 2.1-3.4 K relative to the preindustrial period. The sulfate aerosol reduces global warming by 0.1-0.4 K in different periods depending on the scenario. The largest slowdown (> 1.5 K) occurs over land at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in the mid-21st century for scenario A2. The IAP RAS CM response to the greenhouse and the aerosol forcing is not additive. 1517,2007,2,4,Influence of elevated CO(2) concentrations on thermal tolerance of the edible crab Cancer pagurus,Current trends of global climate change affect marine ectothermal animals not only through the increase in ambient temperature. Synergistic effects of carbon dioxide and temperature changes as well as more frequent hypoxia events must also be considered. As a first attempt| the combined effects of warming and elevated CO(2) concentrations were investigated in the edible crab (Cancer pagurivs). Arterial oxygen tension (PaO(2)) in the haemolymph was recorded on-line during a progressive warming scenario from 10 to 22 degrees C and cooling back to 10 degrees C. Hypercapnia (1% CO(2)) caused a significant reduction of oxygen partial pressure in the haemolymph as well as a large| 5 degrees C downward shift of upper thermal limits of aerobic scope. The present findings are the first to show that hypercapnia causes enhanced sensitivity to heat and thus| a narrowing of the thermal tolerance window of a marine ectotherm. Such interactions of ambient temperature and anthropogenic increases in ambient CO(2) concentrations will need to be considered during future investigations of the effects of climate change on ecosystems. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1520,2007,2,4,Influence of global warming on coastal infrastructural instability,The increasing infrastructure instability is an important issue in relation to the influences of global climate change in urban areas. A serious issue pertaining to this is the dual nature of damage triggered by events combined with climate change and natural hazards. For example| catastrophic damage could result from the combination of global warming with a great earthquake| which is a worst-case scenario. Although this worst-case scenario has rarely occurred and presents a low probability of occurrence| countermeasures must be prepared in advance based on an appropriate response and adaptation strategies. After an overview of possible infrastructural instabilities caused by global warming| methodologies are proposed placing emphasis on the increasing probability of infrastructural instability triggered by natural hazards resulting from groundwater-level (GWL) variations. These effects are expected to be particularly serious in coastal regions because of the influence of the rising sea level resulting from global warming. The influence of sea-level rises (SLR) will become apparent along with land subsidence because groundwater abstraction will become severe in coastal regions. Additionally| the probability of earthquake liquefaction increases if GWL rises in accompaniment with SLR. Using case histories| we examined the possible occurrence of these natural hazards as a result of global warming. Finally| possible countermeasures and adaptation strategies for reducing and mitigating infrastructure damage accelerated by global warming are described for each case in specific regions. In particular| special attention should be paid to adaptation strategies in coastal lowlands| which particularly suffer from the effects of land subsidence. 7847,2007,4,4,Influence of runoff parameterization on continental hydrology: Comparison between the Noah and the ISBA land surface models,[ 1] A comprehensive set of hydrological parameterizations without any basin-scale calibration was recently introduced into the global ISBA land surface model in order to improve the simulation of the hydrological impacts of both seasonal climate anomalies and global warming. In this study| the same approach is introduced into the Noah land surface model| in order to improve the representation of surface runoff. The Dunne runoff is computed using topographic information via a TOPMODEL approach and the Horton runoff using an explicit distinction between frozen and unfrozen soils| while land surface heterogeneities are introduced via a tile approach. The validation is conducted at a 1 degrees by 1 degrees horizontal resolution using global off line simulations that were driven by Global Soil Wetness Project atmospheric forcing. The simulated runoff is converted into discharges using the TRIP river routing model and compared to observations from a dense network of gauging stations distributed over the world's largest river basins. Results confirm that the relationships between the Dunne runoff and the topography| as well as between the Horton runoff and the frozen soils| are among the main hydrological processes to simulate realistic global river discharges. The comparison between the old and the new versions of Noah and ISBA reveal that the model disparity| in term of water flux production| is globally reduced due to the use of similar surface hydrology that lead to comparable improvements of discharge scores. This confirms the relevance of these surface hydrological processes for regional and global applications. 1405,2007,2,4,Influences of climate on aflatoxin producing fungi and aflatoxin contamination,Aflatoxins are potent mycotoxins that cause developmental and immune system suppression| cancer| and death. As a result of regulations intended to reduce human exposure| crop contamination with aflatoxins causes significant economic loss for producers| marketers| and processors of diverse susceptible crops. Aflatoxin contamination occurs when specific fungi in the genus Aspergillus infect crops. Many industries frequently affected by aflatoxin contamination know from experience and anecdote that fluctuations in climate impact the extent of contamination. Climate influences contamination| in part| by direct effects on the causative fungi. As climate shifts| so do the complex communities of aflatoxin-producing fungi. This includes changes in the quantity of aflatoxin-producers in the environment and alterations to fungal community structure. Fluctuations in climate also influence predisposition of hosts to contamination by altering crop development and by affecting insects that create wounds on which aflatoxin-producers proliferate. Aflatoxin contamination is prevalent both in warm humid climates and in irrigated hot deserts. In temperate regions| contamination may be severe during drought. The contamination process is frequently broken down into two phases with the first phase occurring on the developing crop and the second phase affecting the crop after maturation. Rain and temperature influence the phases differently with dry| hot conditions favoring the first and warm| wet conditions favoring the second. Contamination varies with climate both temporally and spatially. Geostatistics and multiple regression analyses have shed light on influences of weather on contamination. Geostatistical analyses have been used to identify recurrent contamination patterns and to match these with environmental variables. In the process environmental conditions with the greatest impact on contamination are identified. Likewise| multiple regression analyses allow ranking of environmental variables based on relative influence on contamination. Understanding the impact of climate may allow development of improved management procedures| better allocation of monitoring efforts| and adjustment of agronomic practices in anticipation of global climate change. Published by Elsevier B.V. 7942,2007,2,4,Influences of species| latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming,New analyses are presented addressing the global impacts of recent climate change on phenology of plant and animal species. A meta-analysis spanning 203 species was conducted on published datasets from the northern hemisphere. Phenological response was examined with respect to two factors: distribution of species across latitudes and taxonomic affiliation or functional grouping of target species. Amphibians had a significantly stronger shift toward earlier breeding than all other taxonomic/functional groups| advancing more than twice as fast as trees| birds and butterflies. In turn| butterfly emergence or migratory arrival showed three times stronger advancement than the first flowering of herbs| perhaps portending increasing asynchrony in insect-plant interactions. Response was significantly stronger at higher latitudes where warming has been stronger| but latitude explained < 4% of the variation. Despite expectation| latitude was not yet an important predictor of climate change impacts on phenology. The only two previously published estimates of the magnitude of global response are quite different: 2.3 and 5.1 days decade(-1) advancement. The scientific community has assumed this difference to be real and has attempted to explain it in terms of biologically relevant phenomena: specifically| differences in distribution of data across latitudes| taxa or time periods. Here| these and other possibilities are explored. All analyses indicate that the difference in estimated response is primarily due to differences between the studies in criteria for incorporating data. It is a clear and automatic consequence of the exclusion by one study of data on 'stable' (nonresponsive) species. Once this is accounted for| the two studies support each other| generating similar conclusions despite analyzing substantially nonoverlapping datasets. Analyses here on a new expanded dataset estimate an overall spring advancement across the northern hemisphere of 2.8 days decade(-1). This is the first quantitative analysis showing that data-sampling methodologies significantly impact global (synthetic) estimates of magnitude of global warming response. 1568,2007,2,4,Insect development under predation risk| variable temperature| and variable food quality,We model the development of an individual insect| a grasshopper| through its nymphal period as a function of a trade-off between prey vigilance and nutrient intake in a changing environment. Both temperature and food quality may be variable. We scale up to the population level using natural mortality and a predation risk that is mass| vigilance| and temperature dependent. Simulations reveal the sensitivity of both survivorship and development time to risk and nutrient intake| including food quality and temperature variations The model quantifies the crucial role of temperature in trophic interactions and development| which is an important issue in assessing the effects of global climate change on complex environmental interactions. 8162,2007,2,4,Integrated assessment of changes in flooding probabilities due to climate change,An approach to considering changes in flooding probability in the integrated assessment of climate change is introduced. A reduced-form hydrological model for flood prediction and a downscaling approach suitable for integrated assessment modeling are presented. Based on these components| the fraction of world population living in river basins affected by changes in flooding probability in the course of climate change is determined. This is then used as a climate impact response function in order to derive emission corridors limiting the population affected. This approach illustrates the consideration of probabilistic impacts within the framework of the tolerable windows approach. Based on the change in global mean temperature| as calculated by the simple climate models used in integrated assessment| spatially resolved changes in climatic variables are determined using pattern scaling| while natural variability in these variables is considered using twentieth century deviations from the climatology. Driven by the spatially resolved climate change| the hydrological model then aggregates these changes to river basin scale. The hydrological model is subjected to a sensitivity analysis with regard to the water balance| and the uncertainty arising through the different projections of changes in mean climate by differing climate models is considered by presenting results based on different models. The results suggest that up to 20% of world population live in river basins that might inevitably be affected by increased flood events in the course of global warming| depending on the climate model used to estimate the regional distribution of changes in climate. 1390,2007,3,4,Integrated assessment of global climate change with learning-by-doing and energy-related research and development,This paper presents a small-scale version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of global climate change| which is based on a global| regionally differentiated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with endogenous technological change. This model can be viewed as a basic framework for analyzing a broad range of economic issues related to climate change| in particular since technological change is represented in two ways: on the one hand| there is learning-by-doing (LbD) in non-fossil energy supply technologies| and on the other hand there is research and development (R&D)-driven energy-saving technical progress in production. Computational experiments are added for illustrating the role of technological innovation in a world both with and without cooperation in the solution of the global climate problem. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8233,2007,3,3,Integrating carbon management into the development strategies of urbanizing regions in Asia - Implications of urban function| form| and role,The way urbanization unfolds over the next few decades in the developing countries of Asia will have profound implications for sustainability. One of the more important opportunities is to guide urbanization along pathways that begin to uncouple these gains in well-being from rising levels of energy use. Increasing energy use for transport| construction| climate control in houses and offices| and industrial processes is often accompanied by increasing levels of atmospheric emissions that impact human health| ecosystem functions| and the climate system. Agriculture| forestry| and animal husbandry alter carbon stocks and fluxes as carbon dioxide| methane| and black carbon. In this article we explore how carbon management could be integrated into the development strategies of cities and urbanizing regions. In particular| we explore how changes in urban form| functions| and roles might alter the timing| aggregation| spatial distribution| and composition of carbon emissions. Our emphasis is on identifying system linkages and points of leverage. The study draws primarily on emission inventories and regional development histories carried out in the regions around the cities of Manila| Jakarta| Ho Chi Minh City| New Delhi| and Chiang Mai. We find that how urban functions| such as mobility| shelter| and food| are provided has major implications for carbon emissions| and that each function is influenced by urban form and role in distinct ways. Our case studies highlight the need for major "U-turns" in urban policy. 7767,2007,3,4,Intelligent manufacturing and environmental sustainability,The definition of sustainability which is generally adopted is: "meeting the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (World Commission on the Environment and Development| 1987. Brundtland report). The EU MDG7 report| describes environmental sustainability as: "...meeting current human needs without undermining the capacity of the environment to provide for those needs over the long term..." (UN| 2005a). Over the past decade public concern about sustainable development has profoundly transformed attitudes and to a lesser extent practices in manufacturing industries. A sustainable approach to design and engineering involves evaluating where a product or system has the greatest environmental impact and then prioritising strategies which reduce that impact. There is hardly any industry sector in which the management of environmental sustainability is not of significant relevance. The degradation of pristine ecosystems| global warming| and unprecedented energy usage| has become key issues for all of earths 'tenants'. It is essential that all facets of design and manufacturing take action on environmental sustainability concerns through appropriate strategies| and endeavour to implement standards such as the ISO 14001| and accommodating related legislation as a foundation for sustainable manufacturing. This paper discusses the sustainability challenges of the industrial world| the sustainable management issues they face| and the strategies they might employ| while maintaining corporate responsibility and gaining competitive advantage. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8129,2007,2,4,Interannual variability of the normalized difference vegetation index on the Tibetan plateau and its relationship with climate change,The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau| or Tibetan Plateau| is a sensitive region for climate change| where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly affects the local land ecosystem and could consequently lead to notable vegetation changes. In this paper| the interannual variations of the plateau vegetation are investigated using a 21-year normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset to quantify the consequences of climate warming for the regional ecosystem and its interactions. The results show that vegetation coverage is best in the eastern and southern plateau regions and deteriorates toward the west and north. On the whole| vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982-2002. The temporal variation also exhibits striking regional differences: an increasing trend is most apparent in the west| south| north and southeast| whereas a decreasing trend is present along the southern plateau boundary and in the central-east region. Covariance analysis between the NDVI and surface temperature/precipitation suggests that vegetation change is closely related to climate change. However| the controlling physical processes vary geographically. In the west and east| vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature| with the impact of precipitation being of secondary importance. In the central plateau| however| temperature and precipitation factors are equally important in modulating the interannual vegetation variability. 8365,2007,2,4,Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: relationships with climate and predictability,The area burnt each summer in Tasmania is related to coincident (summer) climate variables| especially the total summer rainfall. The relationship with temperature is weaker and largely reflects the relationship between rainfall and temperature. As the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is known to be related to Australian rainfall and simple indices of this phenomenon form the basis of the operational seasonal climate forecast scheme used in Australia| it is not surprising that indices of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation can also| it appears| provide a potentially useful forecast system for Tasmanian bushfire extent. In particular| sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea during winter are correlated with the area burnt in the following summer. The effect of summer rainfall on the area burnt each year suggests that global warming may not simply lead to increased burning| contrasting with the situation in other parts of the globe. A weak| long-term decline in area burnt appears to be due to a weak increase in summer rainfall. 7724,2007,2,4,Interspecies physiological variation as a tool for cross-species assessments of global warming-induced endangerment: validation of an intrinsic determinant of macroecological and phylogeographic structure,Global warming is now recognized as the dominant threat to biodiversity because even protected populations and habitats are susceptible. Nonetheless| current criteria for evaluating species' relative endangerment remain purely ecological| and the accepted conservation strategies of habitat preservation and population management assume that species can mount ecological responses if afforded protection. The insidious threat from climate change is that it will attenuate or preclude ecological responses by species that are physiologically constrained; yet| quantitative| objective criteria for assessing relative susceptibility of diverse taxa to warming-induced stress are wanting. We explored the utility of using interspecies physiological variation for this purpose by relating species' physiological phenotypes to landscape patterns of ecological and genetic exchange. Using a salamander model system in which ecological| genetic and physiological diversity are well characterized| we found strong quantitative relationships of basal metabolic rates (BMRs) to both macroecological and phylogeographic patterns| with decreasing BMR leading to dispersal limitation (small contemporary ranges with marked phylogeographic structure). Measures of intrinsic physiological tolerance| which vary systematically with macroecological and phylogeographic patterns| afford objective criteria for assessing endangerment across a wide range of species and should be incorporated into conservation assessment criteria that currently rely exclusively upon ecological predictors. 8164,2007,2,4,Intrabasin variations in age and growth of bullhead: the effects of temperature,The variability of growth variables and age structure in bullhead Cottus gobio was studied in a single river catchment by comparing populations inhabiting river reaches with different thermal regimes. Age and growth variables were determined by examining 540 sagittal otoliths from specimens ranging between 19 and 146 mm total length. Growth of young bullhead (0+ and 1+ years) was higher in the warmest sites| especially in relation to water temperature during the growing season (spring and summer). Growth of older bullhead (2+ to 5+ years) was negatively related to mean water temperature of the site. The growth performance of bullhead over its whole life cycle was negatively correlated with water temperature| which could be partly explained by a higher energy allocation to reproduction in the warmest sites. Life span was longer in the colder sites (7 years) than in the warmer ones (4 or 5 years)| and bullhead matured earlier in the warmer sites (age 1+ or 2+ years) compared to the colder ones (age 2+ or 3+ years). These results| combined with previous data on reproductive traits| suggest the possible effects that global warming could have on bullhead population dynamics. 1355,2007,2,4,Intraspecific consistency and geographic variability in temporal trends of spring migration phenology among European bird species,In the course of the 20th century| migratory birds have shown rapid phenological changes in response to climate change. However| the spatial variability of phenological changes| as well as their intraspecific consistency| remains largely unexplored. Here we analysed 672 estimates of change in first arrival dates of migratory birds and 289 estimates of mean/median arrival dates| based on time series with a minimum duration of 15 yr| collected across Europe from 1960 to 2006. There were highly significant advances in arrival date| significantly more so for first than mean arrival date. Change in arrival dates significantly varied among species| implying that response to climate change is a species-specific feature| and showed substantial phylogenetic effects| since ca. 50% of the variation in the observed trends was attributable to differences among species. The advance in first arrival date was weaker at extreme latitudes and stronger at intermediate latitudes| while geographic variation in mean arrival dates was less pronounced. Both first and mean arrival dates advanced the most for short-compared to long-distance migrants. These findings emphasize the reliability of estimates of phenological trends of avian species| which are therefore suitable to be included in comparative analyses aimed at identifying species-specific traits that favour adaptation to climatic changes. In addition| our results suggest that analyses of factors that have affected phenological responses to climate change should take into account spatial variation in the response| which could be due to spatial differences in the strength of climate change. 8056,2007,3,4,Introducing greenhouse gas mitigation as a development objective in rice-based agriculture: I. Generation of technical coefficients,This study presents a modeling tool to assess emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) from the agricultural sector as affected by land-use and residue utilization options. The overall purpose of this tool is twofold: (i) a spreadsheet model for comprehensive compilation of the direct and indirect emissions from land management| residue-burning and fossil fuel consumption through on-farm and off-farm operations and (ii) a decision support tool to explore economically viable mitigation options through detailed cost-benefit analysis of different technological options. We developed TechnoGAS (technical coefficient generator for mitigation technologies of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural sectors)| which integrates analytical and expert knowledge with regional databases on bio-physical| agronomic and socio-economic features to establish input-output relationships ('Technical Coefficients') related to GHG emissions in agriculture. The approach includes emissions of methane (CH4) from rice fields| rice straw burning and cattle; carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel and soil organic carbon decline as well as nitrous oxide (N2O) from soil| rice straw burning and fertilizer use. To illustrate the approach of the spreadsheet model for comprehensive compilation of emissions| we applied TechnoGAS for an entire rice-wheat cropping cycle in the state of Haryana in northern India as a case study. Twenty technologies of rice production| which can be adopted by farmers| are analysed for their operation-specific emissions including their global warming potential (GWP). The technologies differ in terms of water regime| residue management/utilization| soil management and additives| which represent different mitigation options for GHG emissions. With the current farmers' practice in various districts in Haryana| soil-borne emissions are the major source of GHG contributing 53% of the average GWP (3288 kg CO2 equivalent ha(-1)) in rice followed by burning of rice straw (13% of the GWP). Cattle| farm operations| off-farm and inorganic fertilizer contributes 12%| 10%| 10% and 2% of the GWP| respectively. Emissions from wheat are relatively low (1204 kg CO| equivalent ha-1) as there is no CH4 emission and wheat straw is not burnt. Different mitigation technologies show pronounced effects on the GWP of the rice crop and varied between 1715 kg CO2 equivalent ha(-1) with continuous flooding| urea and rice straw used for building materials and 10|020 kg CO2 equivalent ha(-1) with continuous flooding| and application of nutrients through organic manure. Compared to current farmers' practice| 13 technologies are found to have the potential to reduce the GWP by 8-51%| but they also reduce the net income of farmers. Upscaling of the estimates to the entire state of Haryana shows that the GWP with the current farmers' practice in rice is 2617 Gg CO2 equivalent. Modification of water management from continuous flooding to alternate flooding or application of urea alone instead of urea plus FYM will reduce the GWP by 15% and 29%| respectively| while feeding of rice straw to cattle and supplying N through urea will reduce it by 41% compared to the current practice of burning rice straw and use of FYM. The study shows that the TechnoGAS tool can be used for estimating GHG emission from various land-use types and for identifying promising mitigation options. A detailed cost/benefit analysis is supplied by Wassmann and Pathak [Wassmann| R.| Pathak| H. | this olume. Introducing greenhouse gas mitigation as a development objective in rice-based agriculture: II. Cost-benefit assessment for different technologies| regions and scales.]. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1539,2007,2,4,Inverse flood risk modelling under changing climatic conditions,One of the most significant anticipated consequences of global climate change is the increased frequency of hydrologic extremes. Predictions of climate change impacts on the regime of hydrologic extremes have traditionally been conducted using a top-down approach. The top-down approach involves a high degree of uncertainty associated with global circulation model (GCM) outputs and the choice of downscaling technique. This study attempts to explore an inverse approach to the modelling of hydrologic risk and vulnerability to changing climatic conditions. With a focus targeted at end-users| the proposed approach first identifies critical hydrologic exposures that may lead to local failures of existing water resources systems. A hydrologic model is used to transform inversely the main hydrologic exposures| such as floods and droughts| into corresponding meteorological conditions. The frequency of critical meteorological situations is investigated under present and future climatic scenarios by means of a generic weather generator. The weather generator| linked with GCMs at the last step of the proposed methodology| allows the creation of an ensemble of different scenarios| as well as an easy updating| when new and improved GCM outputs become available. The technique has been applied in Ontario| Canada. The results show significant changes in the frequency of hydro-climatic extremes under future climate scenarios in the study area. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 7758,2007,3,3,Investigation into a catalytically controlled reaction gasifier (CCRG) for coal to hydrogen,Energy demands will increase as industrialized nations strive to maintain progress and productivity gains and as developing nations increase their consumption and productivity. One direction that is evolving to satisfy the demand while minimizing environmental impacts is to move toward a hydrogen economy. For the foreseeable future| the majority of these demands will be met through the increased usage of fossil fuels. One of the most abundant and readily available fuels is coal. This realization has raised some questions about the responsible use of such a fuel and as such it is critical that a Greenhouse Gas Management strategy/technology be developed to forestall projected global warming and its impacts. The technology presented in this paper involves a novel form of coal gasification to convert coal to useful forms of energy while addressing environmental concerns. The technology| which is a form of steam reforming| focuses on the combining of catalytic combustion with coal gasification to generate H-2 and CO from coal while yielding a CO2 sequestration ready stream. The H-2 can either be separated from the CO or used as an IGCC turbine fuel. Using an Aspen Plus simulation shows that with a steam to carbon ratio of 1.5 provides a hydrogen output of 1.15 kg/h while generating about 14 kW of electricity (for every 1 kmol/h of carbon fed to the reformer) from a SOFC using the portion of the CO generated which was not needed to drive the reforming reactions. Additionally| recycling up to 25% of CO2 into the reformer produces about 15% more hydrogen| while using 20% less CO for combustion to drive the gasification reactions. Because of the Boudouard reaction an extra 32% (4.5 kW per kmol/h of carbon) can be generated from an SOFC operating on the CO not used for combustion. (C) 2007 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7982,2007,3,4,Investigation of wind characteristics and wind energy potential in Kirklareli| Turkey,Utilization of wind energy as an energy source has been growing rapidly in the whole world due to environmental pollution| consumption of the limited fossil fuels and global warming. Although Turkey has fairly high wind energy potential| exploitation of the wind energy is still in the crawling level. In the current study| wind characteristics and wind energy potential of Kirklareli province in the Marmara Region| Turkey were analyzed taking into account the wind data measured as hourly time series. The wind data used in the study were taken from Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development Administration (EIEI) for the year 2004| The measured wind data were processed as annual| seasonal and monthly. Weibull and Rayleigh probability density functions of the location are calculated in the light of observed data and Weibull shape parameter k and scale parameter c are found as 1.75 and 5.25 m/s for the year 2004. According to the power calculations done for the site| annual mean power density based on Weibull function is 138.85 W/m(2). The results indicate that investigated site has fairly wind energy potential for the utilization. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1593,2007,2,4,Irrigation and enhanced soil carbon input effects on below-ground carbon cycling in semiarid temperate grasslands,Global climate change is generally expected to increase net primary production| resulting in increased soil carbon (C) inputs. To gain an understanding of how such increased soil C inputs would affect C cycling in the vast grasslands of northern China| we conducted a field experiment in which the responses of plant and microbial biomass and respiration were studied. Our experiment included the below-ground addition of particulate organic matter (POM) at rates equivalent to 0| 60| 120 and 240 g C m(-2)| under either natural precipitation or under enhanced precipitation during the summer period (as predicted for that region in recent simulations using general circulation models). We observed that addition of POM had a large effect on soil microbial biomass and activity and that a major part of the added C was rapidly lost from the system. This suggests that microbial activity in the vast temperate grassland ecosystems of northern China is energy-limited. Moreover| POM addition (and the associated nutrient release) affected plant growth much more than the additional water input. Although we performed no direct fertilization experiments| the response of plant productivity to POM addition (and associated release of nutrients) leads us to believe that plant productivity in the semiarid grassland ecosystems of northern China is primarily limited by nutrients and not by water. 8197,2007,2,4,Is the Arabian Sea getting more productive?,Recent observations based on ocean colour show that summer productivity in the western Arabian Sea has been increasing during the last seven years| reportedly due to the warming of the Eurasian land mass. Our analysis of eight years' record of satellite ocean colour data over northeastern Arabian Sea suggests that chlorophyll concentration has not changed significantly in this region| and is thrice that in the southeastern part. Although we see some seasonal variations in different parts of the Arabian Sea| a significant secular trend is not discernible. The reported trend in Chla in the western Arabian Sea is not observed in the eastern Arabian Sea. Hence| we conclude that the increasing trend in the western Arabian Sea may not be entirely attributable to global warming. 8010,2007,4,4,Is the last years abrupt warming in the National Observatory of Athens records a climate change manifestation?,Instrumental data time series show an average global warming of approximately 0.9 degrees C over the last century. Eastern Mediterranean air temperature follows the northern hemisphere (NH) secular trend till 1970s| while the NH warming of the last 30 years is not noticeable in the eastern Mediterranean till 1990s. National Observatory of Athens (NOA) meteorological time series start from the last decades of the 19(th) Century| therefore are at first suitable for detection of long term trends in the region. In this study we investigate whether the abrupt increase of the NOA air temperature time series| which appears during the last few years| is the finger-print of the broader scale climatic change or it is a discontinuity in the record of urban effect or of station's problems origin. It is shown that NOA air temperature records display a statistically significant discontinuity attributable to change of the station thermometers on 1995 and therefore NOA records must be treated with caution for long term air temperature trends detection. 7737,2007,4,4,Isolating the signal of ocean global warming,Identifying the signature of global warming in the world's oceans is challenging because low frequency circulation changes can dominate local temperature changes. The IPCC fourth assessment reported an average ocean heating rate of 0.21 +/- 0.04 Wm(-2) over the period 1961 - 2003| with considerable spatial| interannual and inter-decadal variability. We present a new analysis of millions of ocean temperature profiles designed to filter out local dynamical changes to give a more consistent view of the underlying warming. Time series of temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14 degrees C show large reductions in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm(-2) on average) than previous results. This new measure of ocean warming is also more robust to some sources of error in the ocean observing system. Our new analysis provides a useful addition for evaluation of coupled climate models| to the traditional fixed depth analyses. 8016,2007,3,3,Isolation and selection of microalgae from coal fired thermoelectric power plant for biofixation of carbon dioxide,Global warming is thought to be caused mainly by the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2)| with thermoelectric power plants being responsible for about 7% of global CO2 emissions. Microalgae can reduce CO2 emissions from thermoelectric power plants| but for this use| they must be resistant to the mixture of gases produced by the power plants. We isolated the microalgae Scenedesmus obliquus and Chlorella kessleri from the waste treatment ponds of the Presidente Medici coal fired thermoelectric power plant in the Southernmost Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul and investigated their growth characteristics when exposed to different concentrations of CO2. When cultivated with 6% and 12% CO2| C. kessleri showed a high maximum specific growth rate (lambda(max)) of 0.267/day| with a maximum biomass productivity (P-max) of 0.087 g/L/day at 6% CO2. For S. obliquus| the highest maximum dry weight biomass value was 1.14 g/L with 12% CO2. We also found that these two microalgae also grew well when the culture medium contained up to 18% CO2| indicating that they have potential for biofixation of CO2 in thermoelectric power plants. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7780,2007,3,4,Jatropha biodiesel fueling sustainability?,Jatropha curcas is a multipurpose| drought-resistant| biofuel tree originating from Central and South America| but now growing pantropic. The tree produces seeds containing 27-40% inedible oil| which is easily convertible into biodiesel. Although even some basic agronomic characteristics of J. curcas are not yet fully understood| the plant enjoys a booming interest| which may hold the risk of unsustainable practice. Our qualitative sustainability assessment| focusing on environmental impacts and strengthened by some socio-economic issues| is quite favorable as long as only wastelands or degraded grounds are taken into J. curcas cultivation. Preliminary lifecycle energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances are positive| but the GHG balance is expected to be much dependent on the type of land use which is converted to J. curcas. Removing natural forest will have a severe impact on the global warming potential of the jatropha biodiesel. The cultivation intensity and the distance to markets are expected to have a significant impact on the GHG balance as well. Similar reasoning applies for the impact on soil| water| vegetation structure and biodiversity| although the latter will always depend on local circumstances. Next to biodiesel production and wasteland reclamation| J. curcas also hosts socio-economic development potential. The multipurpose character of the plant and the labor-intensive production chain are thought to be the main drivers for rural development| but are uncertain. In order to achieve best results with respect to both environmental and socio-economic issues| decisions have to be based on local environmental| economical| cultural and social characteristics. (C) 2007 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons| Ltd 1560,2007,3,4,Kiln-drying lumber quality of hybrid poplar clones,Hybrid poplars are currently used in North America primarily for the production of pulp fibre and in the manufacture of engineered solid wood products. Recently| the deployment of poplars as a short-rotation fibre crop has been of interest to mitigate the increasing amount of plantation-grown short fibre resources (hardwoods) derived from the Southern Hemisphere| as well as in the context of global climate change| both as a means to rapidly sequester carbon and as a feedstock for potential bioenergy production. Knowledge on the utility of hybrid poplars in the value-added secondary wood-processing sector| however| is very limited. To improve this situation| the variation in kiln-drying quality of five hybrid poplar genotypes of similar age| harvested from a common site in British Columbia| Canada| was evaluated for three different kiln-drying schedules. The results clearly demonstrate that the drying schedule has a greater effect on grade recovery and the degree of deformation than the hybrid poplar genotype. Furthermore| it was shown that many of the deformations inherently associated with wood derived from fast-grown trees can be reduced or removed with drying| in particular with an aggressive drying schedule. 8048,2007,2,4,Last century patterns of sea surface temperatures and diatom (> 38 mu m) variability in the Southern California current,A time series reconstruction for the last 100 years of the variability of diatoms(>38 mu m) from laminated sediments off the southern Baja California margin shows the susceptibility of this phytoplankton group to oceanographic variability in the California Current on different timescales. Here we show that cool (warm) years are associated with higher (lower) diatom accumulation values with two important exceptions| one during the early 1940s associated to a strong and persistent El Nino event of 1939 1942| and the second one in mid-1980s lasting into the 1990s associated with the two warmest decades in the record. The anomalously high diatom accumulation values observed during these two decades are interpreted in terms of the advantage that larger diatoms have with respect to nutrient uptake over the rest of the phytoplankton under turbulent conditions. There is a clear direction in the changes of the opaline flora community structure throughout the past century that parallels the observed trend towards higher SSTs in the southern part of the California Current. The diatom succession is reflected in three types of assemblages that show a clear progression from cool spring to early summer bloom species in the earlier part of the century| towards alternating cool California Current and warm subtropical waters during the mid-century| to subtropical and tropical assemblages reflecting more stratified oligotrophic conditions during the latter part of the last century. This association between opaline floral succession and the SST anomalies trend implies a long term change that cannot be explained by the same mechanisms that are commonly associated with the typical interannual or interdecadal oceanographic variability. A small group of diatom species appears to follow the periodic swings of the large scale Pacific Decadal Oscilation index. The Coscinodiscus argush-adiatus and Coschiodiscus decreseens/marginatus complexes| commonly found in California Current waters| closely follow the interdecadal variability patterns over the Pacific| although with a decreasing amplitude after the mid-1970s shift. Another variability pattern is revealed by Paralia sulcata and a group of neritic/tycopelagic diatom species. We interpret their close resemblance with the sea level record as a tidally controlled production of this benthic assemblage into the basin| with a potentially greater use as a lunar clock to fine tune ultra high resolution marine records. (C)2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 1396,2007,5,4,Late Cenozoic development of the Strouma and Mesta fluviolacustrine systems| SW Bulgaria and northern Greece,The Strouma and Mesta are two of the largest rivers that drain across SW Bulgaria and northern Greece into the northern Aegean Sea. Their modern valleys| flanked by Quaternary river terraces| are incised into a diverse landscape| which records the region's complex tectonic history. A network of lacustrine basins existed in the region in the Late Oligocene to earliest Miocene| but was disrupted by thrusting and folding related to Early Miocene transpression. This deformation was followed by a period of erosion| covering most of the Early and Middle Miocene| which probably marked the initiation of the Strouma and Mesta fluviolacustrine system| with geometries unrelated to the older systems. The first clear evidence of these river systems dates from the Middle Miocene (late Badenian to Sarmatian). The systems evolved in the Late Miocene (Maeotian to early Pontian)| when takes existed| characterized by diatomaceous algae and by occasional burial of abundant plant fragments and coal formation. Areas in the south| south of the Kerkini fault| were intermittently submerged beneath the Aegean Sea at this time. Intense localized uplift of horst blocks in late Pontian and Pliocene| associated with crustal extension| resulted in deposition of thick alluvial fans| with tilting of sedimentary successions in adjacent grabens evident by the end of the Pliocene. The highest horsts (Osogovo| Rila| Pirin| and Belasitsa) experienced additional uplift in the Pleistocene| in part as a result of regional uplift and in part through continued normal faulting. Pleistocene climate change also resulted in influxes of glacial and fluvioglacial systems. The present form of the Strouma and Mesta fluviolacustrine systems is thus the result of interplay between crustal extension| regional uplift| and global climate change. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7776,2007,2,4,Latitudinal differentiated water table control of carbon dioxide| methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from hydromorphic soils: feedbacks to climate change,The possibility of carbon (C) being locked away from the atmosphere for millennia is given in hydromorphic soils. However| the water-table-dependent feedback from soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition to the climate system is less clear. At least three greenhouse gases are produced: carbon dioxide (CO2)| methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). These gases show emission peaks at different water table positions and have different global warming potentials (GWP)| for example a factor of 23 for CH4 and 296 for N2O as compared with the equivalent mass of CO2 on a 100-year time horizon. This review of available annual data on all three gases revealed that the radiative forcing effect of SOM decomposition is principally dictated by CO2 despite its low GWP. Anaerobic SOM decomposition generally has a lower potential feedback to the climatic system than aerobic SOM decomposition. Concrete values are constrained by a lack of data from tropical and subarctic regions. Furthermore| data on N2O and on plant effects are generally rare. However| there is a clear latitudinal differentiation for the GWP of soils under anaerobic conditions compared with aerobic conditions when looking at CO2 and CH4: in the tropical and temperate regions| the anaerobic GWP showed a range of 25-60% of the aerobic value| but values varied between 80% and 110% in the boreal zone. Hence| particularly in the vulnerable boreal zone| the feedback from ecosystems to climate change will highly depend on plant responses to changing water tables at elevated temperatures. 7861,2007,3,4,LCA of manufacturing lead-free copper alloys,In order to promote the recycling of copper alloy scrap| we developed a new technique for removing Pb from copper alloy scrap containing 2-6 mass% Pb. However| we must evaluate quantitatively the level of environmental impact reduction that can be obtained using this new technology. In this study| a manufacturing system that produces Pb-free copper alloy products from copper alloy scrap containing Pb was assessed by means of life cycle assessment (LCA). The superiority of the new manufacturing system that uses copper alloy scrap containing Pb over the conventional one that uses virgin materials was investigated from the viewpoint of environmental impact. LCA software (JEMAI-LCA) was used to assess environmental impacts such as global warming| acidification| energy consumption and resource consumption. We assessed the raw material acquisition and casting process of Pb-free copper alloy products. The subsequent processes such as machining| assembling| transportation| use and recycling/waste processing are not taken into account in the environmental impact assessment. The results show that the conversion of the conventional system that uses virgin materials into the new one that uses copper alloy scrap containing Ph decreases the environmental impact| significantly. This is attributed to the non-utilization of virgin materials and the decrease in energy consumption during the casting process. 8231,2007,3,4,LCA study and environmental benefits for low temperature disinfection process in commercial laundry,Background| Aims and Scope. This study aims to compare the energy requirements and potential environmental impacts associated with three different commercial laundry processes for washing microbiologically contaminated hospital and care home laundry. Thermal disinfection relies mainly on a 90 degrees C washing temperature and hydrogen peroxide| while the chernothermal disinfection uses a combination of chemicals (mainly peracetic acid) and 70 degrees C washing temperature. The chemical disinfection process relies on a combination of chemicals used at 40 degrees C. Currently| chernothermal processes are the most commonly used in professional laundries. Traditional chemical processes are uncommon due to drawbacks of longer residence time and high chemical requirements. However| the innovative Sterisan chemical process based on plithalimidoperoxyhexanoic acid (PAP) which is the key subject of this Life Cycle Assessment - was designed to overcome these technical limitations. Methods. This study is based on a screening Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) prepared in 2002 by Oko-Institut (Germany)| which was carried out following the requirements of the ISO 14040 series standards. It includes energy resource consumption| water resource consumption| climate change| eutrophication and acidification potential as relevant environmental indicators. In 2004/2005| the study was further updated and broadened to include the aquatic eco-toxicity potential| photochemical oxidant formation and ozone depletion potential in order to represent the environmental burdens associated with the chemicals used. Based on available data| the system boundaries include detergent manufacturing| the professional wash process| waste water treatment| but excluding the laundry finishing process. The selected functional unit was 1 kg washed hygiene laundry. Results and Discussion. The LCA indicates that the Sterisan chemical process has a lower potential environmental impact than thermal or chernothermal treatment for six out of seven key indicators. This includes a 55% lower energy and a 46% lower water consumption. The global warming potential and acidification potential are approximately halved| while the photochemical oxidant formation potential and eutrophication potential are almost reduced to one third. By contrast| for the aquatic eco-toxicity| the thermal- and chernothermal processes have an approximately 17-fold lower impact. The worse aquatic toxicity score for the Sterisan process is mainly caused by a solvent component in the formulation. Conclusion. The comparison of the thermal| chernothermal and Sterisan commercial laundry processes shows that the Sterisan process allows for very substantial reductions in energy and water consumption| as well as significant reductions in climate change| photochemical oxidant formation potential| air acidification potential and eutrophication potential. Yet| Sterisan has a clear disadvantage with regards to aquatic eco-toxicity potential. Recommendation and Perspective. Based on a current hygiene laundry volume of approx. 584|000 tons of linen washed per year by commercial laundries in Germany| a full substitution of the market to the Sterisan process could potentially allow a primary energy saving of similar to 750|000 GJ/year (roughly equivalent to the residential primary energy consumption of 23|500 German citizens or the overall energy demand of approx. 6|000 German citizens). In terms of improvements to the respective processes| the chernothermal and thermal process could benefit from a reduction of water volume| and change of detergent composition to reduce the eutrophication potential. As the washing temperature is an essential factor| only slight improvements for the energy consumption indicator can be obtained| e.g. by choosing green electricity and reducing the amount of water to be heated. The Sterisan process could be improved by lowering the solvent use| although for perspective| the current aquatic eco-toxicity score of the Sterisan process is still lower than that of a typical domestic laundry product. 7765,2007,5,2,Lesson from the past: present insolation minimum holds potential for glacial inception,The community of climatologists predicts a progressive global warming [IPCC Fourth Assessment Report-Climate Change| 2007. The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press| Cambridge] that will not be interrupted by a glacial inception for the next 50 ka [Berger and Loutre| 2002. An exceptionally long Interglacial ahead? Science 297| 1287-1288]. These predictions are based on continuously increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and on the orbital forcing that will provide only muted insolation variations for the next 50 ka. To assess the potential climate development without human interference| we analyse climate proxy records from Europe and the North Atlantic of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (423-362 ka BP)| an interval when insolation. variations show a strong linear correlation with those of the recent past and the future. This analysis suggests that the insolation minimum at 397 ka BP| which provides the best available analogue to the present insolation minimum| terminated interglacial conditions in Europe. At that time| tundra-steppe vegetation spread in Central Europe and pine forests dominated in the eastern Mediterranean region. Because the intensities of the 397 ka BP and present insolation minima are very similar| we conclude that under natural boundary conditions the present insolation minimum holds the potential to terminate the Holocene interglacial. Our findings support the Ruddiman hypothesis [Ruddiman| W.| 2003. The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era began thousands of years ago. Climate Change 61| 261-293]| which proposes that early anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission prevented the inception of a glacial that would otherwise already have started. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8370,2007,3,3,Life cycle assessment as a decision support tool for landfill gas-to energy projects,The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from MSW landfill| and control methods to eliminate or minimize these impacts including energy recovery from landfill gas (LFG) of MSW landfill in Thailand have been evaluated. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used as the analytical tool to evaluate the environmental consequences of landfilling holistically. The economic implications of the control methods are also briefly assessed. The results show that in terms of GHG emissions as well as in terms of economics| it is more advantageous to have a large centralized landfill and produce electricity from the LFG rather than having several small| localized landfills despite significantly lower transportation requirement for the latter case. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the global warming potential was sensitive to gas collection efficiency as well as methane oxidation rate in the landfill. This study shows the utility of a life cycle approach for evaluating LFG-to-energy (LFGTE) projects. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7983,2007,3,4,Life cycle assessment of a Brassica carinata bioenergy cropping system in southern Europe,The energetic and environmental performance of production and distribution of the Brassica carinata biomass crop in Soria (Spain) is analysed using life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology in order to demonstrate the major potential that the crop has in southern Europe as a lignocellulosic fuel for use as a renewable energy source. The Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) including midpoint impact analysis that was performed shows that the use of fertilizers is the action with the highest impact in six of the 10 environmental categories considered| representing between 51 % and 68% of the impact in these categories. The second most important impact is produced when the diesel is used in tractors and transport vehicles which represents between 48% and 77%. The contribution of the R carinata cropping system to the global warming category is 12.7 g CO eq. MJ(-1) biomass produced. Assuming a preliminary estimation of the B. carinata capacity of translocated CO(2) (631 kg CO ha(-1)) from below-ground biomass into the soil| the emissions are reduced by up to 5.2 g CO eq. MJ(-1). The production and transport are as far as a thermoelectric plant of the B. carinata biomass used as a solid fuel consumes 0.12 MJ of primary energy per 1 MJ of biomass energy stored. In comparison with other fossil fuels such as natural gas| it reduces primary energy consumption by 33.2% and greenhouse gas emission from 33.1 % to 71.2% depending on whether the capacity of translocated CO(2) is considered or not. The results of the analysis support the assertion that B. carinata crops are viable from an energy balance and environmental perspective for producing lignocellulosic solid fuel destined for the production of energy in southern Europe. Furthermore| the performance of the crop could be improved| thus increasing the energy and environmental benefits. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8037,2007,3,4,Life cycle assessment of a multi-material car component,Background| Aims and Scope. In recent years| the automotive industry has been experiencing an increasing concern with environmental requirements. A particular focus| is being given to light-weighting of cars| to reducing fuel consumption and to the use of different recycling materials. Consequently| decisions on product design and development must involve economic and technological as well as environmental considerations. In adequate conditions| the LCA methodology enables one to assist an effective integration of the environmental considerations in the decision-making process [1]. In this paper| a multi-material car component which is part of the current automotive brake system| has been modified by its original manufacturer. Such a modification included the use of a new multi-material injection moulding process and the consumption of recyclable materials. The new and the current component were comparatively assessed throughout their life cycles in order to evaluate their respective environmental impacts and| thus| to verify if the new component offers a lower environmental load. The results described in this paper are part of the outcome of a broader research project involving industrial companies| university| technological centres and research institutes based in Portugal| Spain and Germany. Main Features. The car component under focus has four subcomponents whose base materials consist of steel and plastic. The LCA methodology is used to evaluate two scenarios describing the new car component| on the one hand| and the reference scenario| which consists of the existing car component| on the other. The former results from the selection of new subcomponents materials| aiming to use a new production process together with a recycling strategy. Results and Discussion. The inventory analysis shows a lower energy consumption in the alternative scenario (4.2 MJ) compared to the reference scenario (6.1 MJ). Most of that energy is still non-renewable| relating in particular to crude consumption in the car use phase and in the production phase (transports and plastics production). The life cycle inventory analysis indicates also that the alternative scenario has lower air emissions of COD CO| NOx| SOx| NM VOC and PM10| as well as lower solid wastes and water emissions of oils and BOD5. Otherwise| the water emissions of undissolved substances and COD are higher for the alternative scenario. Most of the energy consumed and the air pollutants inventoried occur as a consequence of the use phase. Otherwise| for most of the life cycle water emissions inventoried and solid wastes| the production phase is the major contributor. The impact assessment| performed with the CML method| allows one to conclude that the alternative scenario exhibits lower results in all the impact categories. Both scenarios have similar environmental profiles| being: (i) the use phase| the major contributor for the abiotic depletion| global warming| photochemical oxidation| acidification and eutrophication; and (ii) the production phase| the main contributor for ozone depletion| human toxicity| fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity| marine aquatic ecotoxicity and terrestrial ecotoxicity. The sensitivity analysis| with respect to the fuel consumption reduction value| the impact assessment method and the final disposal scenario| performed in this study allows one to confirm| as a main conclusion| that the alternative scenario is environmentally preferable to the reference scenario. Conclusion. The results obtained through the application of the LCA methodology enable one to conclude that the alternative component has a lower environmental load than the reference component. Recommendations and Perspectives. Considering that the time required for the inventory data collection is a critical issue in LCA practise| the insights provided by this particular case study are likely to be useful to product developers in the car component manufacturing industry| particularly to brake system manufacturers supporting the environmental design within the sector. 8090,2007,3,4,Life cycle assessment of a pyrolysis/gasification plant for hazardous paint waste,Goal| Scope and Background. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) remains an important tool in Dutch waste management policies. In 2002 the new National Waste Management Plan 2002-2012 (NWMP) became effective. It was supported by some 150 LCA studies for more than 20 different waste streams. The LCA results provided a benchmark level for new waste management technologies. Although not new| operational techniques using combined pyrolysis/gasification are still fairly rare in Europe. The goal of this study is to determine the environmental performance of the only full scale pyrolysis/gasification plant in the Netherlands and to compare it with more conventional techniques such as incineration. The results of the study support the process of obtaining environmental permits. Methods. In this study we used an impact assessment method based on the guidelines described by the Centre of Environmental Science (CML) of Leiden University. The functional unit is defined as treatment of 1 ton of collected hazardous waste (paint packaging waste). Similar to the NWMP| not only normalized scores are presented but also 7 aggegated scores. All interventions from the foreground process (land use| emissions| final waste) are derived directly from the site with the exception of emissions to soil which were calculated. Interventions are accounted to each of the different waste streams by physical relations. Data from background processes are taken from the IVAM LCA database 4.0 mostly originating from the Swiss ETH96 database and adapted to the Dutch situation. Allocation was avoided by using system enlargement. The study has been peer reviewed by an external expert. Results and Discussion. It was possible to determine an environmental performance for the pyrolysis/gasification of paint packaging waste. The Life Cycle Inventory was mainly hampered by the uncertainty occurred with estimated air emissions. Here several assumptions had to be made because several waste inputs and two waste treatment installations profit from one flue gas cleaning treatment thus making it difficult to allocate the emission values from the flue gasses. Compared to incineration in a rotary kiln| pyrolysis/gasification of hazardous waste showed better scores for most of the considered impact categories. Only for the impact categories biodiversity and life support the incineration option proved favorable due to a lower land use. Several impact categories had significant influence on the conclusions: acidification| global warming potential| humanity and terrestrial ecotoxicity. The first three are related to a better energy efficiency for pyrolysis/gasification leading to less fossil energy consumption. Terrestrial ecotoxicity in this case is related to specific emissions of mercury and chromium (III). A sensitivity analysis has been performed as well. It was found that the environmental performance of the gasification technique is sensitive to the energy efficiency that can be reached as well as the choice for the avoided fossil energy source. In this study a conservative choice for diesel oil was made whereas a choice for heavy or light fuel oil would further improve the environmental profile. Conclusions. Gasification of hazardous waste has a better environmental performance compared to the traditional incineration in rotary kilns mainly due to the high energy efficiency. As was determined by sensitivity analysis the differences in environmental performance are significant. Improvement options for a better performance are a decrease of process emissions (especially mercury) and a further improvement of the energy balance by decreasing the electricity consumption for shredders and oxygen consumption or making more use of green electricity. Recommendations and Perspectives. Although the life cycle inventory was sufficiently complete| still some assumptions had to be made in order to establish sound mass balances on the level of individual components and substances. The data on input of waste and output of emissions and final waste were not compatible. It was recommended that companies put more emphasis on data storage accounted to particular waste streams. This is even more relevant since more companies in the future are expected to include life cycle impacts in their environmental performance. 8345,2007,3,4,Life cycle assessment of disposal of residues from municipal solid waste incineration: Recycling of bottom a sh in road construction or landfilling in Denmark evaluated in the ROAD-RES model,Two disposal methods for MSWI bottom ash were assessed in a new life cycle assessment (LCA) model for road construction and disposal of residues. The two scenarios evaluated in the model were: (i) landfilling of bottom ash in a coastal landfill in Denmark and (ii) recycling of bottom ash as subbase layer in an asphalted secondary road. The LCA included resource and energy consumption| and emissions associated with upgrading of bottom ash| transport| landfilling processes| incorporation of bottom ash in road| substitution of natural gravel as road construction material and leaching of heavy metals and salts from bottom ash in road as well as in landfill. Environmental impacts associated with emissions to air| fresh surface water| marine surface water| groundwater and soil were aggregated into 12 environmental impact categories: Global Warming| Photochemical Ozone Formation| Nutrient Enrichment| Acidification| Stratospheric Ozone Depletion| Human Toxicity via air/water/soil| Ecotoxicity in water/soil| and a new impact category| Stored Ecotoxicity to water/soil that accounts for the presence of heavy metals and very persistent organic compounds that in the long-term might leach. Leaching of heavy metals and salts from bottom ash was estimated from a series of laboratory leaching tests. For both scenarios| Ecotoxicity(water) was| when evaluated for the first 100 yr| the most important among the twelve impact categories involved in the assessment. Human Toxicity(soil) was also important| especially for the Road scenario. When the long-term leaching of heavy metals from bottom ash was evaluated| based on the total content of heavy metals in bottom ash| all impact categories became negligible compared to the potential Stored Ecotoxicity| which was two orders of magnitudes greater than Ecotoxicity(water) was the constituent that gave the strongest contributions to the ecotoxicities. The most important resources consumed were clay as liner in landfill and the groundwater resource which was potentially spoiled due to leaching of salts from bottom ash in road. The difference in environmental impacts between landfilling and utilization of bottom ash in road was marginal when these alternatives were assessed in a life cycle perspective. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8044,2007,3,4,Life cycle assessment of district heat distribution in suburban areas using PEX pipes insulated with expanded polystyrene,Goal| Scope and Background. Combined heat and power (CHP) is a strategy aimed at reducing the impact of the energy sector on the climate by more efficient use of the energy content of the fuel. The implementation of CHP requires the utilisation of the heat produced. Space heating by means of district heating is one possible use for such heat. In countries such as Sweden| where district heating is already extensively used| many multiapartment buildings are connected to district heating. For increased use| the distribution systems will have to expand into suburbs with single family homes. However| the environmental impact and cost of the district heat distribution system increase when the pipe networks are extended into such areas. This is due to the production and installation of longer pipe networks and increased heat losses from the system. Attempts have been made to find new types of pipe constructions in order to lower the costs of connecting single family homes to district heating. These should be evaluated from an environmental perspective. The EPSPEX system is a distribution system intended for suburban areas. This system consists of cross-linked polyethylene (PEX) pipes in insulating blocks of expanded polystyrene (EPS). This paper presents a life cycle assessment of the EPSPEX district heat distribution system. In a second scenario| sub-stations were added. The results indicate areas that require improvement and provide a basis for comparison with other types of district heat distribution systems. Methods. Production| network construction and use of the district heat system were studied by means of life cycle methodology| employing specific data for the EPSPEX system and generic data for upstream impacts of the materials used. The system constructed in Vraen| Varnamo| Sweden| in 2002 was studied. The district heating used in Vraen is mainly based on biofuels. The functional unit was the use of one metre of an EPSPEX district heating system over a period of one year.| The expected system life was 30 years. The results were characterised as global warming potential| acidification potential| eutrophication potential and the use of finite resources| as well as weighted by EPS 2000| ExternE and EcoIndicator 99. No external review was performed| but a reference group of district heating experts familiar with the practice has reviewed the study. Results. Heat losses are clearly the main environmental impact in all characterisations and weightings (71-92% of the total impact)| despite the fact that the heat production studied was mainly based on biomass combustion| generally perceived to be environmentally friendly. Of the system components| the production of EPS insulation blocks had the largest environmental impact. Discussion. This impact| however| is compensated for by the fact that the need to produce less heat leads to a lower level of emissions. Several characterisation methods revealed that the production and combustion of diesel for excavating the pipe trench has a significant environmental impact. The jointing brass swaged coupling used for the PEX fluid pipes has a surprisingly high impact in terms of acidification and EPS 2000| considering the small amount of brass in the system. Conclusions. The life cycle environmental impact is dominated by the heat production needed to compensate for heat losses from the system| despite the fact that the EPSPEX system is relatively well insulated compared to a conventional district heating system. It is possible to shut down the heating circuit and only use the hot tap water circuit during the summer months; this reduces the heat losses and is an advantageous feature of the system. The second largest environmental impact of the EPSPEX system arises from the production of the EPS insulation blocks. A decrease in nitrogen oxide emissions| especially those caused by the excavation and filling of pipe trenches| would be beneficial. A rough comparison has been made with available literature data for conventional DN25 twin pipes. The results indicate that the environmental impact of the EPSPEX system is probably lower. However| the pipes are not identical| as the water delivery capacity of the conventional pipe is slightly lower. Recommendations and Perspectives. In Sweden| new types of pipes are being developed for district heating in suburban areas| and there is a need for an environmental comparison between such new alternatives and previous results for conventional polyurethane insulated steel pipes. This study reveals that biofuels| although perceived to be environmentally friendly| must be used with caution in order to ensure a satisfactory environmental performance. Heat loss from district heating should be minimized also when biofuels are used. The most immediate way to reduce such environmental impact is to increase the insulation. The environmental trade-off between lower heat losses achieved by the use of more insulation and the production of greater amounts of insulation material should be further studied. 8043,2007,3,4,Life cycle assessment of electrical and thermal energy systems for commercial buildings,Background| Aim and Scope. The objective of this life cycle assessment (LCA) study is to develop LCA models for energy systems in order to assess the potential environmental impacts that might result from meeting energy demands in buildings. The scope of the study includes LCA models of the average electricity generation mix in the USA| a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plant| a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cogeneration system; a microturbine (MT) cogeneration system; an internal combustion engine (ICE) cogeneration system; and a gas boiler. Methods. LCA is used to model energy systems and obtain the life cycle environmental indicators that might result when these systems are used to generate a unit energy output. The intended use of the LCA analysis is to investigate the operational characteristics of these systems while considering their potential environmental impacts to improve building design using a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) optimization model. Results. The environmental impact categories chosen to assess the performance of the energy systems are global warming potential (GWP)| acidification potential (AP)| tropospheric ozone precursor potential (TOPP)| and primary energy consumption (PE). These factors are obtained for the average electricity generation mix| the NGCC| the gas boiler| as well as for the cogeneration systems at different part load operation. The contribution of the major emissions to the emission factors is discussed. Discussion. The analysis of the life cycle impact categories indicates that the electrical to thermal energy production ratio has a direct influence on the value of the life cycle PE consumption factors. Energy systems with high electrical to thermal ratios (such as the SOFC cogeneration systems and the NGCC power plant) have low PE consumption factors| whereas those with low electrical to thermal ratios (such as the MT cogeneration system) have high PE consumption factors. In the case of GWP| the values of the life cycle GWP obtained from the energy systems do not only depend on the efficiencies of the systems but also on the origins of emissions contributing to GWP. When evaluating the life cycle AP and TOPP| the types of fuel as well as the combustion characteristics of the energy systems are the main factors that influence the values of AP and TOPP. Conclusions. An LCA study is performed to evaluate the life cycle emission factors of energy systems that can be used to meet the energy demand of buildings. Cogeneration systems produce utilizable thermal energy when used to meet a certain electrical demand which can make them an attractive alternative to conventional systems. The life cycle GWP| AP| TOPP and PE consumption factors are obtained for utility systems as well as cogeneration systems at different part load operation levels for the production of one kWh of energy output. Recommendations and Perspectives. Although the emission factors vary for the different energy systems| they are not the only factors that influence the selection of the optimal system for building operations. The total efficiencies of the system play a significant part in the selection of the desirable technology. Other factors| such as the demand characteristics of a particular building| influence the selection of energy systems. The emission factors obtained from this LCA study are used as coefficients of decision variables in the formulation of an MILP to optimize the selection of energy systems based on environmental criteria by taking into consideration the system efficiencies| emission characteristics| part load operation| and building energy demands. Therefore| the emission factors should not be regarded as the only criteria for choosing the technology that could result in lower environmental impacts| but rather one of several factors that determine the selection of the optimum energy system. 8071,2007,3,4,Life cycle assessment of manufacturing system of lead-free bronze products,inventory analysis of manufacturing system for both conventional Pb-free bronze made from virgin materials and new Pb-free bronze made by removing Pb from scrap Pb-bronze was assessed from the view point of life cycle assessment (LCA). The result shows that new manufacturing system of Pb-frec bronze made by removing Pb from scrap Pb-bronze reduces such environmental impacts as global warming| acidification| energy consumption| resource consumption significantly. Thus| in LCA perspective| the new manufacturing system using a recycling Pb-free bronze is economically superior to the conventional one using virgin materials. 8369,2007,3,4,Life cycle assessment of MSW-to-energy schemes in Thailand,Life cycle assessment was performed to evaluate environmental impacts of two municipal solid waste (MSW) to energy schemes currently practiced in Thailand: incineration and anaerobic digestion. Potential impacts such as global warming| acidification| stratospheric ozone depletion| and photo-oxidant formation were avoided due to net electricity production and also fertilizer production as by-products from the anaerobic digestion scheme. In addition| the anaerobic digestion resulted in the higher net energy output compared to the incineration scheme. However| the incineration had less potential impact for nutrient enrichment. The LCA results were also useful in determining where the improvements could be made for both the schemes. In order to adopt a sustainable waste management system elsewhere in the country| decision makers may need to consider a combination of techniques| or an integrated method of management. LCA could serve as an invaluable tool for such an analysis. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7835,2007,3,4,Life cycle assessment of printing and writing paper produced in Portugal,Goal| Scope and Background. The environmental sustainability is one of the current priorities of the Portuguese pulp and paper industry. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was the methodology chosen to evaluate the sustainability of the printing and writing paper production activity. This paper grade represents about 60% of the total production of paper in Portugal and its production is expected to increase in the near future. The main goal of this study was to assess the potential environmental impacts associated with the entire life cycle of the printing and writing paper produced in Portugal from Eucalyptus globulus pulp and consumed in Germany| in order to identify the processes with the largest environmental impacts. Another goal of this study was to evaluate the effect on the potential environmental impacts of changing the market where the Portuguese printing and writing paper is consumed: German market vs. Portuguese market. Methods. The main stages considered in this study were: forestry| pulp production| paper production| paper distribution| and paper final disposal. Transports and production of chemicals| fuels and energy in the grid were also included in these stages. Whenever possible and feasible| average or typical data from industry were collected. The remaining data were obtained from the literature and specialised databases. A quantitative impact assessment was performed for five impact categories: global warming over 100 years| acidification| eutrophication| non-renewable resource depletion and photochemical oxidant formation. Results. In the German market scenario| the paper production stage was a remarkable hot spot for air emissions (non-renewable CO2| NOx and SO2) and for non-renewable energy consumption| and| consequently| for the impact categories that consider these parameters: global warming| acidification and non-renewable resource depletion. These important environmental impacts are due to the energy requirements in the printing and writing paper production process| which are fulfilled by on-site fuel oil burning and consumption of electricity from the national grid| which is mostly based on the use of fossil fuels. The pulp production stage was identified as the largest contributor to water emissions (COD and AOX) and to eutrophication. Considering that energy consumed by the pulp production processes comes from renewable fuels| this stage was also the most contributing to renewable energy consumption. Discussion. The paper distribution stage showed an important contribution to NOx emissions| which| however| did not result in a major contribution to acidification or eutrophication. The final disposal stage was the main contributor to the photochemical oxidant formation potential due to CH4 emissions from wastepaper landfilling. On the other hand| paper consumption in Portugal was environmentally more favourable than in Germany for the parameters/impact categories where the paper distribution stage has a significant contribution (non-renewable CO2| NOx| non-renewable energy consumption| acidification| eutrophication and nonrenewable resource depletion) due to shorter distances needed to deliver paper to the consumers. For the remaining parameters/impact categories| the increase observed in the final disposal stage in the Portuguese market was preponderant| and resulted from the existence of significant differences in the final disposal alternatives in the analysed markets (recycling dominates in Germany| whereas landfilling dominates in Portugal). Conclusions. The pulp and paper production stages were found to be of significance for almost all of the inventory parameters as well as for the impact assessment categories. The paper distribution and the final disposal stages were only of importance for some of the inventory parameters and some of the impact categories. The forestry stage played a minor role in the environmental impacts generated during the paper life cycle. The consumption of paper in Portugal led to a decrease in the environmental burdens of the paper distribution stage| but to an increase in the environmental burdens of the final disposal stage| when compared with the consumption of paper in Germany. Recommendations and Perspectives. This study provides useful information that can assist the pulp and paper industry in the planning of future investments leading to an increase in its sustainability. The results of inventory analysis and impact assessment show the processes that play an important role in each impact category| which allow the industry to improve its environmental performance| making changes not only in the production process itself| but also in the treatment of flue gases and liquid effluents. Besides that concern regarding pollution prevention| other issues with relevance to the context of sustainability| such as the energy consumption| can also be dealt with. 8343,2007,3,3,Life cycle assessment of the waste hierarchy - A Danish case study on waste paper,The waste hierarchy is being widely discussed these days| not only by cost-benefit analysts| but a growing number of life cycle assessments (LCA) have also begun to question it. In this article| we investigate the handling of waste paper in Denmark and compare the present situation with scenarios of more waste being recycled| incinerated or consigned to landfill. The investigations are made in accordance with ISO 14040-43 and based on the newly launched methodology of consequential LCA and following the recent guidelines of the European Centre on Waste and Material Flows. The LCA concerns the Danish consumption of paper in 1999| totalling 1.2 million tons. The results of the investigation indicate that the waste hierarchy is reliable; from an environmental point of view recycling of paper is better than incineration and landfilling. For incineration| the reason for the advantage of landfilling mainly comes from the substitution of fossil fuels| when incinerators provide heat and electricity. For recycling| the advantage is related to the saved wood resources| which can be used for generating energy from wood| i.e.| from renewable fuel which does not contribute to global warming. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8036,2007,3,4,Life cycle assessment on end-of-life vehicle treatment system in Korea,This study aims at evaluating the environmental impacts stemmed from End-of-Life Vehicle (ELV) treatment system in Korea| using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method. In the process of the assessment| not only the environmental burdens originated from ELV dismantling processes and recycling processes but also the environment benefits obtained from the avoided effects of recycled materials on the environmental impacts associated with virgin materials are considered. The significant issues which are defined as the environmental aspects that contribute more than 1% to the total environmental impacts in each impact category are identified from the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA). From the Life Cycle Inventory Analysis (LCI) and LCIA studies| it is shown that the significant environmental aspects are associated with recycling processes of ferrous metals| shredding processes of compressed car bodies and recycling processes of end-of-life engines. In particular| the recycling processes of ferrous metals appear to have the most significant environmental impacts in the ELV treatment system. Thus| it is required to improve the recycling processes of ferrous metals in order to make the current ELV treatment system more environmentally sound. This study also deals with ELV treatment scenarios as follows; reference is the current ELV treatment system with 78% of recycling rate| Scenario I takes into account of both the recycling of the additional automotive parts (85% recycling rate) and the collection of refrigerants| and Scenario 11 assumes energy recovery as well as 95% of recycling rate. It is found that scenario 11 has better ecological profiles than the others in the environmental impact categories such as Abiotic Resource Depletion (ARD)| Global Warming (GW)| Ozone Depletion (OD)| Photochemical Oxidant Creation (POC)| Eutrophication (EU) and Human Toxicity (HT).
8217,2007,3,4,Life cycle assessment: A case study of a dwelling home in Scotland,The article provides a life cycle assessment (LCA) of a 3-bed room semi detached house in Scotland. Detailed LCA of five main construction materials i.e. wood| aluminium| glass| concrete and ceramic tiles have been provided to determine their respective embodied energy and associated environmental impacts. Embodied energy of various construction materials involved has been estimated to be equal to 227.4 GJ. It is found that concrete| timber and ceramic tiles are the three major energy expensive materials involved. It as been calculated that concrete alone consumes 65% of the total embodied energy of the home while its share of environmental impacts is even more crucial. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8334,2007,3,2,Life cycle energy and environmental analysis of a microgrid power pavilion,Microgrids-generating systems incorporating multiple distributed generator sets linked together to provide local electricity and heat-are one possible alterative to the existing centralized energy system. Potential advantages of microgrids include flexibility in fuel supply options| the ability to limit emissions of greenhouse gases| and energy efficiency improvements through combined heat and power (CHP) applications. As a case study in microgrid performance| this analysis uses a life cycle assessment approach to evaluate the energy and emissions performance of the NextEnergy microgrid Power Pavilion in Detroit| Michigan and a reference conventional system. The microgrid includes generator sets fueled by solar energy| hydrogen| and natural gas. Hydrogen fuel is sourced from both a natural gas steam reforming operation and as a by-product of a chlorine production operation. The chlorine plant receives electricity exclusively from a hydropower generating station. Results indicate that the use of this microgrid offers a total energy reduction potential of up to 38%| while reductions in non-renewable energy use could reach 51%. Similarly| emissions Of CO(2)| a key global warming gas| can be reduced by as much as 60% relative to conventional heat and power systems. Hydrogen fuels are shown to provide a net energy and emissions benefit relative to natural gas only when sourced primarily from the chlorine plant. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 8086,2007,3,4,Life cycle impact assessment of greywater recycling technologies for new developments,This paper presents the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) of four treatment technologies currently under investigation for recycling the grey-water generated from households and describes the development of a new LCIA tool set produced in this study. The technologies investigated include reed beds| membrane bioreactors (MBR); membrane chemical reactors (MCR) and an innovative green roof water recycling system (GROW). The materials and energy required for the construction and operation phases of these technologies have been quantified for 20 development scales. All of the information gathered is used to prepare life cycle inventories for each technology. The inventories have been used as an input to Simapro Software for performing LCIA. Two assessment methods (CML-2 and Eco-indc-99) have been employed. For the CML method| the results were processed to express the environmental performance in ten impact categories including climate change/global warming| depletion of abiotic resources| acidification| eutrophication| and human toxicity. For the Eco-indc-99 method| results are shown in three generic environmental indicators: human health| eco system and natural resources. LCIA results obtained for 20 development scales have been used to develop a tool set using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system technique. The study results indicate that the technologies based on natural treatment processes (GROW and reed beds) have low environmental impact. 7816,2007,3,4,Life cycle impact assessment weights to support environmentally preferable purchasing in the united states,LCA is a quantitative method for understanding the environmental impacts of a product| yet all product purchasing decisions are ultimately subjective. Weights are the nexus between the quantitative results of LCA and the values-based| subjective choices of decision makers. In May 2007| NIST introduced a new optional weight set in Version 4.0 of the BEES software. Three key points about this new optional weight set are the basis for discussion in this paper: The new weight set was created specifically in the context of BEES. It is intended to support a practical method to assist environmentally preferable purchasing in the United States based on LCIA results. This is in contrast to the weight sets currently in BEES| which are based on generalist perspectives. The new weight set was created by a multi-stake holder panel via the AHP method| and is a synthesis of panelists' perspectives on the relative importance of each environmental impact category in BEES. The weight set draws on each panelist's personal and professional understanding of| and value attributed to| each impact category. While the synthesized weight set may not equally satisfy each panelist's view of impact importance| it does reflect contemporary values in applying LCA to real world decisions| and represents one approach others can learn from in producing weight sets. The new weight set offers BEES users an additional option for synthesizing and comparing the environmental performance of building products and making purchasing decisions. In so doing| it strengthens the decision-making process| which is important when making product comparisons in the public domain. The Weight Set: Across all panelists and with explicit consideration of all time horizons| anthropogenic contributions to global warming| weighted at 29%| was judged most important| yet not so important that decisions can be made solely on the basis of this impact. A strong tail of other concerns include fossil fuel depletion (10%)| criteria air pollutants (9%)| water intake/use (8%)| human health cancerous effects (8%)| ecologic a I toxicity (7%)| eutrophication of water bodies (6%)| land use (6%)| and human health noncancerous effects (5%). Also of interest are the identified impact areas of concern assigned the lowest weights: smog formation (4%)| indoor air quality (3%)| acidification (3%)| and ozone depletion (2%). Their low weights may indicate that there is not as much immediate concern or that the remedial actions associated with the|impact for the most part are underway. 7874,2007,3,3,Life cycle study of coal-based dimethyl ether as vehicle fuel for urban bus in China,With life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology| a life cycle model of coal-based dimethyl ether (CBDME) as a vehicle fuel is established for China. Its life cycle from well to wheel are divided into three phases. They are feedstock extraction| fuel production and fuel consumption in vehicle. The primary energy consumption (PEC) and global warming potential (GWP) of CBDME pathway are analyzed and compared with coal-based diesel (CBD) as a latent rival to replace conventional petroleum-based diesel (CPBD). This study demonstrates that the LCA methodology is very suitable and effective for the choice of vehicle fuels. One result is that the greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission of coal-based vehicle fuel pathways is usually concentrated on fuel production stage. The percentages of CBDME and CBD pathways both exceed 60%. The application of carbon capture and storage (CCS) is helpful for coal-based vehicle fuel pathways to improve their global warming effect dramatically. Compared with CBD pathway| CBDME pathway consumes less PEC and emits less GHGs emission as well. Even though the CCS and CH4-fired generation are used| the advantages of CBDME are still kept. For saving petroleum energy and reducing global warming effect| CBDME has greater potential than CBD to substitute CPBD under current fuel synthesis technologies. If the hurdles such as the maturity of engine and vehicle technologies| corresponding regulations and standards and infrastructures are reliably solved| CBDME will have better prospect in China. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8290,2007,3,4,Life cycle sustainability assessment of fuels,This paper gives an overview of the potential on multi-criteria assessment of fuels. In order to apply the multi-criteria approach to fuels| it was necessary to use the multi-criteria procedure based on the sustainability index rating composed of linear aggregative functions of all indicators with weighting function. The examples under consideration are conventional gasoline (CG)| conventional diesel oil (CD)| compressed natural gas (CNG)| mixture of 85% methanol (derived from natural gas) and 15% gasoline by volume (M85)| mixture of 85% ethanol (derived from corn) and 15% gasoline by volume (E85)| and pure cassava-based ethanol (E100). These options are evaluated with the multi-criteria method comprising the following indicators: life cycle costs (LCC)| global warming potential (GWP)| net energy yield (NE)| non-renewable resource depletion potential (NRDP) indicator. The evaluation of options under consideration was performed under constraint expressing non-numeric relation among the indicators. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 8078,2007,3,4,Life-cycle assessment of a coupled advanced oxidation-biological process for wastewater treatment: Comparison with granular activated carbon adsorption,A comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) concerning two strategies for coupling advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) with biological treatment| namely solar-driven photo-Fenton and ozonation| is performed. In addition| these emergent technologies are compared to a reference technology| namely granular activated carbon (GAQ adsorption. The study is based on pilot plant and laboratory tests using alphamethyl-phenylglycine (MPG) as a target substance. The system under study includes production of infrastructure for the solar plant| chemicals| electricity| transport of all these materials to the plant site| management of the spent catalyst by landfilling and spent GAC by regeneration| as well as treatment of the obtained effluent in a conventional municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP) and excess sludge treatment by incineration. Nine environmental impact categories are included in the LCA: global warming| ozone depletion| human toxicity| freshwater aquatic toxicity| photochemical ozone formation| acidification| eutrophication| energy consumption| and land use. The experimental results obtained in the pilot plant show that both AOPs are able to obtain a biodegradable effluent| while GAC is able to adsorb almost 100% MPG. The results of the LCA show that none of the treatment options appears as preferable at the same time in all nine impact indicators. Nevertheless| in six of these indicators solar-driven photo-Fenton coupled to biological treatment obtains the lowest impact. From a weighted life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) results perspective| solar-driven photo-Fenton appears as the most environmentally friendly alternative| even in locations with relatively low solar resources. 8007,2007,3,4,Life-cycle assessment of diesel| natural gas and hydrogen fuel cell bus transportation systems,The Sustainable Transport Energy Programme (STEP) is an initiative of the Government of Western Australia| to explore hydrogen fuel cell technology as an alternative to the existing diesel and natural gas public transit infrastructure in Perth. This project includes three buses manufactured by DaimlerChrysler with Ballard fuel cell power sources operating in regular service alongside the existing natural gas and diesel bus fleets. The life-cycle assessment (LCA) of the fuel cell bus trial in Perth determines the overall environmental footprint and energy demand by studying all phases of the complete transportation system| including the hydrogen infrastructure| bus manufacturing| operation| and end-of-life disposal. The LCAs of the existing diesel and natural gas transportation systems are developed in parallel. The findings show that the trial is competitive with the diesel and natural gas bus systems in terms of global warming potential and eutrophication. Emissions that contribute to acidification and photochemical ozone are greater for the fuel cell buses. Scenario analysis quantifies the improvements that can be expected in future generations of fuel cell vehicles and shows that a reduction of greater than 50% is achievable in the greenhouse gas| photochemical ozone creation and primary enengy demand impact categories. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7860,2007,2,4,Life-table analysis of Anopheles arabiensis in western Kenya highlands: Effects of land covers on larval and adult survivorship,In high-elevation areas in western Kenya| the abundance of Anopheles arabiensis is either very low or absent. The western Kenya highlands (an area with an elevation > 1|500 m above sea level) have also been experiencing extensive deforestation| and deforestation has been suggested as one of the important factors that facilitate malaria transmission in the highlands. This study investigated whether climate conditions in the western Kenya highlands (Kakamega| elevation 1|500 m above sea level) were permissive to the development and survival of An. arabiensis and whether deforestation promoted An. arabiensis survivorship of immature and adult stages| using life-table analysis. We found that in larval habitats located in forested areas| only 4-9% of first-instar larvae developed into adults and the development length exceeded 20 days. Mean water temperature of aquatic habitats in the deforested area was 4.8-6.1 degrees C higher than that in the forested area| larval-to-adult survivorship was increased to 65-82%| and larval-to-adult development time was shortened by 8-9 days. The average indoor temperature in houses in the deforested area was 1.7-1.8 degrees C higher than in the forested area| and the relative humidity was 22-25% lower. The median survival time of adult mosquitoes in the deforested area was 49-55% higher than those in the forested area. The net reproductive rate of female mosquitoes in the deforested area was 1.7- to 2.6-fold higher than that in the forested area. Compared with previously published data on An. gambiae| the net reproductive rate of An. arabiensis was only 0.8-1.3% of Anopheles gambiae in the forested area and 2.3-2.6% in the deforested area. Therefore| the current ambient climate condition is less permissive to An. arabiensis than to An. gambiae in western Kenya highlands. However| environmental changes such as deforestation and global warming may facilitate the establishment of An. arabiensis populations in the highlands. 8272,2007,2,4,Linking global warming to amphibian declines through its effects on female body condition and survivorship,There is general consensus that climate change has contributed to the observed decline| and extinction| of many amphibian species throughout the world. However| the mechanisms of its effects remain unclear. A laboratory study in 1980-1981 in which temperate zone amphibians that were prevented from hibernating had decreased growth rates| matured at a smaller size and had increased mortality compared with those that hibernated suggested one possible mechanism. I used data from a field study of common toads (Bufo bufo) in the UK| between 1983 and 2005| to determine whether this also occurs in the field. The results demonstrated two pathways by which global warming may cause amphibian declines. First| there was a clear relationship between a decline in the body condition of female common toads and the occurrence of warmer than average years since 1983. This was paralleled by a decline in their annual survival rates with the relationship between these two declines being highly correlated. Second| there was a significant relationship between the occurrence of mild winters and a reduction in female body size| resulting in fewer eggs being laid annually. Climate warming can| therefore| act on wild temperate zone amphibians by deleteriously affecting their physiology| during and after hibernation| causing increased female mortality rates and decreased fecundity in survivors. 8209,2007,2,4,Linking increasing drought stress to Scots pine mortality and bark beetle infestations,In the dry Swiss Rhone Valley| Scots pine forests have experienced increased mortality in recent years. It has commonly been assumed that drought events and bark beetles fostered the decline| however| whether bark beetle outbreaks increased in recent years and whether they can be linked to drought stress or increasing temperature has never been studied. In our study| we correlated time series of drought indices from long-term climate stations| 11-year mortality trends from a long-term research plot| and mortality probabilities modeled from tree rings (as an indicator of tree vitality) with documented occurrences of various bark beetle species and a buprestid beetle| using regional Forest Service reports from 1902 to 2003 and advisory cases of the Swiss Forest Protection Service (SFPS) from 1984 to 2005. We compared the historical findings with measured beetle emergence from a 4-year tree felling and breeding chamber experiment. The documented beetle-related pine mortality cases increased dramatically in the 1990s| both in the forest reports and the advisory cases. The incidents of beetle-related pine mortality correlated positively with spring and summer temperature| and with the tree-ring based mortality index| but not with the drought index. The number of advisory cases| on the other hand| correlated slightly with summer drought index and temperature| but very highly with tree-ring-based mortality index. The tree-ring-based mortality index and observed tree mortality increased in years following drought. This was confirmed by the beetle emergences from felled trees. Following dry summers| more than twice as many trees were colonized by beetles than following wet summers. We conclude that increased temperatures in the Swiss Rhone Valley have likely weakened Scots pines and favored phloeophagous beetle population growth. Beetles contributed to the increased pine mortality following summer drought. Among the factors not addressed in this study| changed forest use may have also contributed to increased beetle populations and Scots pine mortality| whereas air pollution seems to be of lesser importance. 8311,2007,2,4,Lithoglyphus naticoides (Pfeiffer) (Gastropoda : Prosobranchia): distribution in France| population dynamics and life cycle in the Saone river at Lyon (France),Lithoglyphus naticoides was observed for the first time in the north of France at the beginning of the 19th century| but since then this gastropod has only succeeded in colonising the eastern half of this country. A map showing its distribution in France is proposed. In the Saone river| L. naticoides is an annual species: spawning occurs from March to June and the juveniles that Generally appear in May Grow rapidly during the summer then spawn and disappear in the spring of the following year. Different observations suggest that increased water temperatures occurring in the context of global warming and potential/possible interspecific competition are the main reasons for the disappearance of L. naticoides in the Saone river at Lyon since November 2004. 7746,2007,2,4,Local adaptation and cogradient selection in the alpine plant| Poa hiemata| along a narrow altitudinal gradient,Alpine environments are particularly susceptible to environmental changes associated with global warming but there is potential for alpine plants to adapt to warming if local adaptation occurs and gene flow allows genotypes adapted to low altitudes to colonize higher altitude sites. Here we examine the adaptive potential of a common alpine grass| Poa hiemata| within the restricted alpine habitat of Australian mountains| across a narrow altitudinal gradient replicated in three areas. Grasses at high altitude sites had shorter leaf lengths and larger circumferences than those at lower sites. Transplant experiments with clonal material and plants grown from seed indicated that these differences were partly genetic| with environmental and genetic factors both contributing to the differences between altitudes. Differences in altitudinal forms were also evident in a common garden experiment. Plants showed a home-site advantage in terms of survival. A fitness analysis indicated that at high altitude sites| selection favored plants with short leaves and larger circumferences| whereas these traits were selected in the opposite direction at the low altitude sites. These findings indicate cogradient selection and potential for both plastic and genotypic shifts in response to climate change in P. hiemata. 8159,2007,2,4,Local adaptation enhances seedling recruitment along an altitudinal gradient in a high mountain Mediterranean plant,Background and Aims Germination and seedling establishment| which are critical stages in the regeneration process of plant populations| may be subjected to natural selection and adaptive evolution. The aims of this work were to assess the main limitations on offspring performance of Silene ciliata| a high mountain Mediterranean plant| and to test whether local adaptation at small spatial scales has a significant effect on the success of establishment. Methods Reciprocal sowing experiments were carried out among three populations of the species to test for evidence of local adaptation on seedling emergence| survival and size. Studied populations were located at the southernmost margin of the species' range| along the local elevation gradient that leads to a drought stress gradient. Key Results Drought stress in summer was the main cause of seedling mortality even though germination mainly occurred immediately after snowmelt to make the best use of soil moisture. The results support the hypothesis that species perform better at the centre of their altitudinal range than at the boundaries. Evidence was also found of local adaptation in seedling survival and growth along the whole gradient. Conclusions The local adaptation acting on seedling emergence and survival favours the persistence of remnant populations on the altitudinal and latitudinal margins of mountain species. In a global warming context| such processes may help to counteract the contraction of this species' ranges and the consequent loss of habitat area. 8052,2007,4,4,Local time influence in single-satellite radio occultation climatologies from Sun-synchronous and non-Sun-synchronous satellites,[1] The sampling error of Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) derived temperature climatologies is computed over a representative time span of 2 years and compared for Sun-synchronous and non-Sun-synchronous Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. The main focus lies on the sampling error's local time component| which is caused by incomplete sampling of the diurnal cycle and which depends on the geometry of the satellite orbits. The Sun-synchronous satellite MetOp ( Meteorological Operational European weather satellite) and the non-Sun-synchronous satellite CHAMP ( Challenging Minisatellite Payload)| both carrying GPS RO instruments on board| serve as representative cases. For the Sun-synchronous satellite MetOp the local time component remains constant during the whole observation period such that the magnitude of the local time errors in monthly mean or longer-term mean RO climatologies is generally lower than +/- 0.1 K. Except for potential long-term effects of global warming on the diurnal cycle| which might require calibration| this small local time component is stable on decadal timescales and is mainly positive in the Northern Hemisphere and at low latitudes| whereas it is mainly negative in the Southern Hemisphere. These features are attributable to a slight orbit-determined asymmetry in local time sampling. The typical ( temporally stable) local time error of an annual mean MetOp climatology resolved into 18 zonal bands amounts to similar to 0.04 K. For the non-Sun-synchronous satellite CHAMP the local time error component in monthly mean RO climatologies is also small ( up to about +/- 0.15 K) but more variable ( about zero mean) at middle and high latitudes. At low latitudes it results in sinusoidally varying positive and negative deviations with a several-months period| resulting from the local time drift of the satellite. The magnitude of local time errors is slightly larger compared to MetOp since the monthly averaging period is too short for CHAMP to entirely sample a diurnal cycle; a longer averaging period further decreases CHAMP's local time component. An annual mean climatology resolved into 18 zonal bands shows for CHAMP a typical local time residual error component of similar to 0.03 K. The overall evidence is that even with single RO satellites| monthly climatologies of high accuracy ( sampling error < 0.3 K) with the local time component being a minor part (< 0.1 K to 0.15 K) can be obtained. 8351,2007,2,4,Long day plants and the response to global warming: rapid evolutionary change in day length sensitivity is possible in wild beet,Day length is a key factor in flowering induction in many plant species in a seasonal environment with flowering induction usually happening at shorter day lengths in lower latitudes. Now| the climate changes systematically at a considerable speed due to global warming. As a consequence| earlier flowering will be selected for in long day plants by favouring a lower threshold for day length sensitivity| on the condition of available genetic variability. Here| we show that there is considerable genetic variation for day length sensitivity in our study species| the seabeet Beta vulgaris subsp. maritima. In the northernmost natural populations without vernalization requirement| in southwest France| the necessary day length for flowering induction could be reduced by artificial selection in < 10 generations from > 13 h to < 11 h| the latter value corresponding to populations in the Beta-species complex from Northern Africa and the eastern part of the Mediterranean tested under the same conditions. A quantitative genetic analysis provided evidence of a gradual change without detectable major genes. Additional experiments were carried out to separate the response to photoperiod from age and energy effects. A certain effect of energy availability has been found| whereas age effects could be excluded. These results indicate a considerable potential for evolutionary change in adjusting flowering time in a changing climate. 1595,2007,2,4,Long-term acclimation of plants to elevated CO2 and its interaction with stresses,Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and air temperature are of major concern when considering the possible effects of global climate change on vegetations. Although production has been found to increase in many cases| other experiments have also indicated increased hazards for plant growth because of the increased frequency of weather extremes| such as droughts| floods| and extreme temperatures. Thus at the same time elevated CO2 and the extreme climatic events| intra- and interannual climatic variability alone can be foreseen as an indirect constraint| which separately influences significantly the carbon cycling in ecosystems| too. In the shorter term the effect Of CO2 is direct and is mediated by photosynthesis. In the longer term the effects of elevated CO2 became more and more indirect and its effects are mediated by source-sink interactions within plants| resources (nutrients| water)| temperature| microbes| herbivores| and land-use management practice. In fact| the plants can make use of their general stress coping mechanisms to avoid or compensate possible negative effects of elevated CO2. One has to consider that all the classical abiotic| biotic| and anthropogenic stressors are threatening plant growth and development also under elevated CO2| although at possibly different doses compared to ambient CO2 concentrations. Therefore| the knowledge of the general stress coping| stress avoiding| and tolerance mechanisms is needed to understand the regulation of the plants' metabolism under normal and elevated CO2 levels. 1512,2007,2,4,Long-term changes in the geographic distribution and population structures of Osilinus lineatus (Gastropoda : Trochidae) in Britain and Ireland,Since the rate of global climate change began to accelerate in the 1980s| the coastal seas of Britain have warmed by tip to l degrees C. Locations close to the northern range edges of a southern trochid gastropod Osilinus lineatus in Britain previously surveyed in the 1950s and 1980s were resurveyed during 2002-2004 to determine whether changes in the success of near-limit populations had occurred during the period of climate warming. Between the 1980s and the 2000s| the range limits had extended by up to 55 krn. Populations sampled over a latitudinal extent of 4 degrees from northern limits towards the centre of the range showed synchronous increases in abundance throughout the years sampled| suggesting a large-scale factor such as climate was driving the observed changes. These increases in abundance and changes in range limits are likely to have occurred via increased recruitment success in recent years. 8255,2007,5,4,Long-term fire frequency not linked to prehistoric occupations in northern Swedish boreal forest,Knowledge of past. re regimes is crucial for understanding the changes in. re frequency that are likely to occur during the coming decades as a result of global warming and land-use change. This is a key issue for the sustainable management of forest biodiversity because. re regimes may be controlled by vegetation| human activities| and/or climate. The present paper aims to reconstruct the pattern of. re frequency over the Holocene at three sites located in the same region in the northern Swedish boreal forest. The. re regime is reconstructed from sedimentary charcoal analysis of small lakes or ponds. This method allows. re events to be characterized| after detrending the charcoal influx series| and allows estimation of the time elapsed between. res. The long-term. re regime| in terms of fire-free intervals| can thus be elucidated. At the three sites| the mean fire-free intervals through the Holocene were long and of similar magnitude (similar to 320 years). This similarity suggests that the ecological processes controlling. re ignition and spread were the same. At the three sites| the intervals were shorter before 8600 cal yr BP ( calibrated years before present)| between 7500 and 4500 cal yr BP| and after 2500 cal yr BP. Geomorphological and vegetation factors cannot explain the observed change| because the three sites are located in the same large ecological region characterized by Pinus sylvestris-Ericaceae mesic forests| established on morainic deposits at the same elevation. Archaeological chronologies also do not match the. re chronologies. A climatic interpretation is therefore the most likely explanation of the long-term regional pattern of. re. Although recent human activities between the 18th and the 20th centuries have clearly affected the. re regime| the dominant factor controlling it for 10 000 years in northern Sweden has probably been climatic. 8009,2007,5,4,Long-term interactions between Mediterranean climate| vegetation and fire regime at Lago di Massaciuccoli (Tuscany| Italy),1. A Holocene sedimentary sequence from a coastal lake in the Mediterranean area (Lago di Massaciuccoli| Tuscany| Italy| 0 m a.s.l.) was sampled for pollen and microscopic charcoal analyses. Contiguous 1-cm samples represent an estimated time interval of c. 13 years| thus providing a high-resolution sequence from 6100 to 5400 cal. years BP. 2. Just before 6000 cal. years BP| sub-Mediterranean and Mediterranean forests were present together with fir (Abies alba)| a submontane species that is today absent at low altitudes in the Mediterranean. A sharp vegetational change occurred after 6000 cal. years BP involving a drastic decline of Abies alba around the site. 3. Time-series analyses suggest that increased fire activity at this time caused a strong decline in Abies alba| a highly fire-sensitive species. During 100 years of higher fire incidence| diverse (predominantly evergreen) forest communities were converted to low-diversity fire-prone shrub communities. 4. Cross-correlations reveal that fire during the mid-Holocene hindered the expansion of holm oak (Quercus ilex)| the most common tree species today in Mediterranean environments. While the factors that triggered the Holocene expansion of this species in the Mediterranean area are unclear| our results do not support the hypothesis that fire was key for holm oak expansion. 5. Diatom analyses of the same sediment core provide an independent palaeoenvironmental proxy for palaeoclimatic reconstruction. A change in the eutrophy and salinity of the lake occurred just before 6000 cal. years BP| suggesting that a climatic shift towards aridity may have triggered the observed change in hydrology and possibly also in fire regime. 6. Over the millennia fire has decisively contributed to the establishment of the present fire-adapted vegetation type (macchia). Native fire-sensitive species were displaced or repressed| and arboreal vegetation became less diverse. Combined ecological and palaeoecological data may help to assess possible future scenarios of biosphere responses to global change. Our results imply that the forecasted global warming and fire increase may trigger irrecoverable biodiversity losses and shifts in vegetational composition within a few decades or centuries at most. In particular| fire and drought-sensitive vegetation types| such as the relict forests of Abies alba in the Apennines| seem particularly threatened by large-scale displacement. 8271,2007,2,4,Long-term response of Dreissena polymorpha larvae to physical and biological forcing in a shallow lake,Muggelsee| a shallow eutrophic lake (Berlin| Germany)| has been subject to global warming and concurrent reductions of anthropogenic nutrient loading during the past decades. Here| we focus on the recent increase in abundance of Dreissena polymorpha larvae. We aimed at ascertaining whether the change in abundance of larvae was driven by changes in climate| especially by climate warming| and/or by the concurrent changes in trophic state of the lake. Both the numbers of small| newly developed larvae and their lengths have increased in recent years| suggesting that conditions for overall reproductive success have improved. The timing of the increase in abundance of larvae was matched by changes in nutrient loading and phytoplankton biomass| induced by a reduced inflow of nutrients into the lake. Besides a correlation between the first appearance of larvae each year and the timing of the requisite temperature for first spawning (12 degrees C)| no relationship between changes in water temperature and abundance| length and survival rates of larvae was found. However| a sudden drop in abundance of larvae in 2003 may be primarily attributed to low dissolved oxygen conditions during an unusually long period of stratification| induced by anomalous meteorological conditions. The increase in length and survival rates of larvae was most likely due to changes in food composition| which followed the decrease in nutrient availability| and to changes in the occurrence of planktivorous fish. The results suggest that the first appearance of larvae per year and the decline in abundance of larvae in 2003 were driven by climatic influences| while the overall increase in abundance and length of D. polymorpha larvae in Muggelsee was more likely caused by changes in the trophic state of the lake rather than by climate warming. 1597,2007,2,4,Long-term studies of crop yields with changing rainfall and fertilization,The anthropogenic effects of global climate change on water resources may be masked by natural climate variability. With a warmer climate| drought and excess rainfall conditions could become more frequent| severe| and longer-lasting. The potential increase in these natural hazards is of concern| given the stresses they place on water resources and agricultural production| and the high costs that result from these hazards. For these reasons| long-term studies were conducted in Eastern Hungary from 1962-2001 in order to obtain the relationship between rainfall quantities| soil agrochemical properties| and mineral fertilization on yields of rye| potato| winter wheat and triticale. Averaged rainfall quantities over many years| experimental years| and phenological phases over many years and experimental years for rye were 567 mm| 497 turn| 509 mm and 452 mm; for potato 551 mm| 537 mm| 337 mm and 294 mm; for winter wheat 586 mm| 509 mm| 518 mm and 467 mm; for triticale 551 mm| 537 mm| 489 mm and 497 turn respectively. Rainfall deviations (+/-) from the average over many years in the experimental years and during the phenological phases for rye were -12 % and -11 %; for potato -3 % and -13 %; for winter wheat -13 % and -10 %; and for triticale -3 % and 2 %. During the vegetation period| the relationships between rainfall quantity| nutrition (N| P| K| Ca| Mg)| and yield were characterized by polynomial correlations "R" (rye: 0.65-0.99| potato: 0.95-0.98| winter wheat: 0.54-0.76| triticale: 0.28-0.67). Maximum yields of 4.0 t ha(-1) for rye| 21.0 t ha(-1) for potato| 3.4 t ha(-1) for winter wheat| and 5.5 t ha(-1) for triticale were observed when the respective natural rainfall amount was in the range of 430-500| 280-330| 449-495 and 550-600 mm. At rainfall amounts above and below these ranges| crop yields are drastically reduced. 7870,2007,2,4,Long-term trends in atmospheric pollen levels in the city of Thessaloniki| Greece,We examined the long-term trends in pollen atmospheric levels in Thessaloniki| the second largest city of Greece. On the basis of data collected during the period 1987-2005| we estimated trends in the atmospheric pollen levels for the 16 different taxa| each of whose contribution to the total atmospheric pollen concentration was at least 0.5%. We also tested for trends towards earlier| longer or more highly peaked pollen seasons. The salient feature of these data is that the levels of pollen have been increasing; this is true for the majority of the individual taxa examined (12 out of 16) and for their aggregate. On average| the atmospheric pollen concentration is doubling every decade| but for some species the rate is much higher| with doubling times less than 5 years. Among the taxa with the highest rate of long-term trend in atmospheric pollen concentration| four belong to the group of woody plants (Cupressaceae| Quercus| Platanus| Pinaceae) and only one to that of herbs (Urticaceae). For the pollen-season-related attributes (onset| peak| end and duration)| there was no systematic tendency and the changes were more nuanced. The observed increase in pollen abundance coincides with a rise in air temperature| which is the only meteorological factor to have experienced a sustained and significant change over the same period in Thessaloniki. Our results suggest that changes in pollen distributions are dominated by increases in pollen production rather than changes in flowering phenology and that several species showing strong trends might serve as bio-indicators of expected climate change. Given that the pollen-producing reservoir around the city has not increased| these results provide further evidence of the impact of climate change on plant biota. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8363,2007,2,4,Long-term trends in fish recruitment in the north-east Atlantic related to climate change,This study investigates the temporal correspondence between the main patterns of recruitment variations among north-east Atlantic exploited fish populations and large-scale climate and temperature indices. It is of primary importance to know what changes in fish stock productivity can be expected in response to climate change| to design appropriate management strategies. The dominant patterns of recruitment variation were extracted using a standardized principal component analysis (PCA). The first principal component (PC) was a long-term decline| with a stepwise change occurring in 1987. A majority of Baltic Sea| North Sea| west of Scotland and Irish Sea populations| especially the gadoids| have followed this decreasing trend. On the contrary| some herring populations and the populations of boreal ecosystems have followed an opposite increasing trend. The dominant signal in north-east Atlantic sea surface temperature| also extracted by a PCA| was highly correlated with the increase in the Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomaly| which is considered to be an index of global warming. The first component of recruitment was inversely correlated with these changes in regional and global temperature. The second PC of recruitment was a decadal scale oscillation| which was not correlated with climate indicators. The analysis of correlations between population recruitment and local temperature also indicated that the dominant pattern of recruitment variation may be related to an effect of global warming. The influence of fishing on recruitment| via its effect on the spawning stock biomass (SSB)| was also investigated by the analysis of correlations between fishing mortality| SSB and recruitment. Results indicate that fishing can be another factor explaining recruitment trends| probably acting in combination with the effect of climate| but cannot explain alone the patterns of recruitment variation found here. 8220,2007,2,4,Long-term trends in food habits of a relict brown bear population in northern Spain: the influence of climate and local factors,Relict endangered populations may be especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. A data series for the period 1974-2003 was used to examine shifts in brown bear Ursus arctos food habits in its south-westernmost European population. This focused on the hyperphagic season| when bears gain the fat that is essential for winter dormancy and reproduction. General climatic indicators were predictors of diet trends. Other variables potentially able to modify brown bear food habits at the local scale were accounted for by considering two areas where local conditions changed in different ways during the study period. General climatic indicators such as temperature and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index were good predictors of some diet trends| although local factors seemed to modulate the potential response of food habits to recent climate change. Boreal and temperate food items decreasingly contributed to brown bear diet| replaced by increasing contributions of southern foods| which suggested that warmer temperatures might determine the occurrence of some food items in the diet of Cantabrian brown bears through effects on plant distribution and phenology. At the local scale| high cattle density in one of the study areas limited food sources available for brown bears. Important food sources for brown bears| such as heath-like Vaccinium formations and old-growth oak forest in the Cantabrian Mountains| require increased levels of protection. 1561,2007,2,2,Long-term trends in the frequency of severe cyclones of Bay of Bengal : Observations and simulations,The east coast of India and the coasts of Bangladesh| Myanmar and Sri Lanka are vulnerable to the incidence of tropical cyclones of the Bay of Bengal. Every year these cyclones inflict heavy loss of life and property in this region. Global climate change resulting from anthropogenic activity is likely to manifest itself in the weather and climate of the Bay of Bengal region also. The long-term trends in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones of the Bay of Bengal during intense cyclonic months May| October and November is one such problem which has been addressed in the present paper. Utilizing the existing data of 129 years (1877-2005) pertaining to the tropical cyclone frequency and intensity in the Bay of Bengal during May| October and November| a study was undertaken to investigate the trends in the frequency of Severe Cyclonic Storms (SCS) during past decades. The results of the trend analysis reveal that the SCS frequency over the Bay of Bengal has registered significant increasing trends in past 129 years during the intense cyclonic months. It may be emphasized that these trends are long-term trends for more than hundred years based on statistical analyses which do not necessarily imply that SCS frequency has increased continuously decade after decade. As a matter of fact there has been a slight decrease in SCS frequency after peaking in the pentad 1966-1970| but this does not alter the long-term trend much. The intensification rate during November| which accounts for highest number of intense cyclones in the north Indian Ocean| has registered a steep rise of 26% per hundred years| implying that a tropical depression forming in the Bay of Bengal during November has a high probability to reach to severe cyclone stage. A regional climate model simulation revealed the enhanced cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal during May| October and November as a result of increased anthropogenic emissions in the atmosphere. 1573,2007,2,4,Macroecology of Calanus finmarchicus and C-helgolandicus in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas,Global climate change is expected to modify the spatial distribution of marine organisms. However| projections of future changes should be based on robust information on the ecological niche of species. This paper presents a macroecological study of the environmental tolerance and ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson 1957| i.e. the field of tolerance of a species to the principal factors of its environment) of Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Biological data were collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey| which samples plankton in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas at a standard depth of 7 m. Eleven parameters were chosen including bathymetry| temperature| salinity| nutrients| mixed-layer depth and an index of turbulence compiled from wind data and chlorophyll a concentrations (used herein as an index of available food). The environmental window and the optimum level were determined for both species and for each abiotic factor and chlorophyll concentration. The most important parameters that influenced abundance and spatial distribution were temperature and its correlates such as oxygen and nutrients. Bathymetry and other water-column-related parameters also played an important role. The ecological niche of C. finmarchicus was larger than that of C. helgolandicus and both niches were significantly separated. Our results have important implications in the context of global climate change. As temperature (and to some extent stratification) is predicted to continue to rise in the North Atlantic sector| changes in the spatial distribution of these 2 Calanus species can be expected. Application of this approach to the 1980s North Sea regime shift provides evidence that changes in sea temperature alone could have triggered the substantial and rapid changes identified in the dynamic regimes of these ecosystems. C. finmarchicus appears to be a good indicator of the Atlantic Polar Biome (mainly the Atlantic Subarctic and Arctic provinces) while C. helgolandicus is an indicator of more temperate waters (Atlantic Westerly Winds Biome) in regions characterised by more pronounced spatial changes in bathymetry. 7845,2007,5,4,Magnitude of the carbon isotope excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum: The role of plant community change,Carbon-isotope measurements (delta(13)C) of leaf-wax n-alkanes from the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) in the Bighorn Basin| Wyoming| reveal a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) of 4-5 parts per thousand| which is 1-2 parts per thousand larger than that observed in marine carbonate delta(13)C records. Reconciling these records requires either that marine carbonates fail to record the full magnitude of the CIE or that the CIE in plants has been amplified relative to the marine. Amplification of the CIE has been proposed to result from an increase in available moisture that allowed terrestrial plants to increase (13)C-discrimination during the PETM. Leaf physiognomy| paleopedology and hydrogen isotope ratios of leaf-wax lipids from the Bighorn Basin| however| all suggest that rather than a simple increase in available moisture| climate alternated between wet and dry during the PETM. Here we consider two other explanations and test them quantitatively with the carbon isotopic record of plant lipids. The "marine modification" hypothesis is that the marine carbonate record was modified by chemical changes at the PETM and that plant lipids record the true magnitude of the CIE. Using atmospheric CO(2) delta(13)C values estimated from the lipid record| and equilibrium fractionation between CO(2) and carbonate| we estimate the expected CIE for planktonic foraminifera to be 6 parts per thousand. Instead| the largest excursion observed is about 4 parts per thousand. No mechanism for altering marine carbonate by 2 parts per thousand has been identified and we thus reject this explanation. The "plant community change" hypothesis is that major changes in floral composition during the PETM amplified the CIE observed in n-alkanes by 1-2 parts per thousand relative to marine carbonate. This effect could have been caused by a rapid transition from a mixed angiosperm/conifer flora to a purely angiosperm flora. The plant community change hypothesis is consistent with both the magnitude and pattern of CIE amplification among the different n-alkanes| and with data from fossil plants. This hypothesis predicts that the magnitude and pattern of amplification of CIEs among different n-alkanes will vary regionally and systematically depending on the extent of the replacement of conifers by angiosperms during the PETM. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8013,2007,3,4,Major biogeochemical processes in soils - A microcosm incubation from reducing to oxidizing conditions,Six soils used for rice (Oryza sativa L.) production were incubated using an automatic microcosm system. Production of trace gases (CO2| CH4| and N2O) and transformation of N| S| and metals (Fe and Mn) were studied in soil suspensions incubated from reducing to oxidizing conditions. Results show that soil pH variation was inversely correlated to soil redox potential (E-H) change (P < 0.0 1). Soil CO2 production exponentially increased with soil E-H increase. In contrast| soil CH4 production and DOC showed an exponential decrease with soil E-H increase. Without the presence of soil oxidants| methanogenesis occurred across the entire E-H range| with probable H-2-supported methanogenesis at higher soil E-H conditions constituting up to 20% of total CH4 production. The CH4 compensation point| where CH4 concentration became constant due to equilibrium between CH4 production and consumption| exponentially decreased with soil E-H increase. At pH 7| the critical E-H above which soils consumed atmospheric CH4 varied among the soils| but was generally > 400 mV. Significant N2O production was observed between 200 and 500 mV Nitrification could also contribute to N2O production when E-H is > 500 mV| a possible critical E-H for the initiation of nitrification. The critical E-H for substantial immobilization of Fe and Mn was estimated to be around 50 and 250 mV| respectively. The intermediate E-H range (approximately -150 to 180 mV) provided optimum conditions for minimizing cumulative global warming potential resulting from CO2| CH4| and N2O production in soils. Our results have implications in interpreting the overall benefits of soil C sequestration efforts. 1401,2007,5,4,Major middle Miocene global climate change: Evidence from East Antarctica and the Transantarctic Mountains,We present a glacial record from the western Olympus Range| East Antarctica| that documents a permanent shift in the thermal regime of local glaciers| from wet- to cold-based regimes| more than 13.94 m.y. ago. This glacial record provides the first terrestrial evidence linking middle Miocene global climate cooling to a permanent reorganization of the Antarctic cryosphere and to subsequent growth of the polar East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The composite stratigraphic record constructed from field mapping and analyses of 281 soil excavations shows a classic wet-based till (Circe till| including an extensive melt-out facies)| overlain by a weathered colluvial deposit (Electra colluvium)| and then a series of stacked tills deposited from cold-based ice (Dido drift). Chronologic control comes from Ar-40/Ar-39 analyses of concentrated ash-fall deposits interbedded within glacial deposits. The shift from wet- to cold-based glaciation reflects a drop in mean annual temperature of 25-30 degrees C and is shown to precede one or more major episodes of ice-sheet expansion across the region| the youngest of which occurred between 13.62 and 12.44 Ma. One implication is that atmospheric cooling| following a relatively warm mid-Miocene climatic optimum ca. 17 to 15 Ma| may have led to| and thus triggered| maximum ice-sheet overriding. 7882,2007,4,4,Mapping Russian forest biomass with data from satellites and forest inventories,The forests of Russia cover a larger area and hold more carbon than the forests of any other nation and thus have the potential for a major role in global warming. Despite a systematic inventory of these forests| however| estimates of total carbon stocks vary| and spatial variations in the stocks within large aggregated units of land are unknown| thus hampering measurement of sources and sinks of carbon. We mapped the distribution of living forest biomass for the year 2000 by developing a relationship between ground measurements of wood volume at 12 sites throughout the Russian Federation and data from the MODIS satellite bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) product (MOD43B4). Based on the results of regression-tree analyses| we used the MOD43B4 product to assign biomass values to individual 500 m x 500 m cells in areas identified as forest by two satellite-basedmaps of land cover. According to the analysis| the total living biomass varied between 46 and 67 Pg| largely because of different estimates of forest area. Although optical data are limited in distinguishing differences in biomass in closed canopy forests| the estimates of total living biomass obtained here varied more in response to different definitions of forest than to saturation of the optical sensing of biomass. 8329,2007,4,4,Marseilles tide-recorder series: sea-surface temperature measurements from 1885 to 1967.,From 1885 to 1967| seawater temperatures have been daily measured at Marseilles. These measurements were used to correct the sea level data of tide-recorder that provided the zero level taken as a reference in France. These data (almost 30 000) are deposited within the National Geographic Institute| where we have manually copied and put them under a digital form. The complete treatment of this well-known but never examined long-time series should provide valuable information inside the context of the global warming and with regards to the lack of historical information on seawater temperature. By comparisons with current Mediterranean surface seawater- and air-temperature series| minima winter averages appear to be too low (about 2 degrees C) for the Mediterranean Sea's surface| and too high for aerial temperatures. This bias is probably the consequence of the measuring place| which is located inside the float shaft of the tide-recorder| i.e. in an enclosed and not free seawater body. But all the data having been recorded following the same protocol| they can be compared. The statistical treatment of this 83-year series exhibits a significant warming trend| which can be estimated to + 0.66 degrees C by a century| and + 0.76 degrees C when only the warmest months (June to September) are taken into account. 8392,2007,3,3,Material flow and environmental impact analysis of fossil fuels in the province of Hubei| China,Material flow analysis (MFA) and life cycle assessment (LCA)| along with characteristics of regional MFA| were applied to analyze fossil fuels flow in Hubei's economy system from 1991 to 2003. An internationally comparative study on material intensity and efficiency of fossil fuels was presented to illustrate their environmental impacts on Hubei province. The study shows that material efficiency of fossil fuels in Hubei was close to the average level in China| but far lower than that in the developed countries. Global warming potential (GWP) was the greatest one and occupied 41.4% of total environmental impact. Therefore| the key pathway to reduce environmental pollution was to improve the utilizing efficiency of fossil fuels| and to control the emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. 1372,2007,4,4,Meeting report: Threats to human health and environmental Sustainability in the pacific basin,The coastal zone of the Pacific Rim is home for about one-third of the world's population. Disproportionate growth of Far Eastern economies has produced a disproportionate share of related environmental difficulties. As the region searches for acceptable compromises between growth and environmental quality| its influence on global environmental health is certain to increase. Consequences of global environmental change such as habitat alteration| storms| and sea-level rise will be particularly acute among Pacific Rim nations. Adverse health effects from arsenic exposure in Pacific Rim nations have been used to justify drinking water standards in the United States and elsewhere. As global manufacturing in the Pacific Rim increases| the centroid of global air quality and waste management issues will shift further toward Far Eastern nations. The Eleventh International Conference of the Pacific Basin Consortium (PBC) was held in September 2005 in Honolulu| Hawaii. The purpose of the conference was to bring together individuals to discuss regional challenges to sustainable growth. The historic emphasis of the conference on hazardous wastes in relation to human health makes the PBC an ideal forum for discussing technical aspects of sustainable economic growth in the Pacific region. That role is reflected in the 2005 PBC conference themes| which included management of arsenic in potable waters| air quality| climate change| pesticides| mercury| and electronics industry waste-each with emphasis on relationships to human health. Arsenic management exemplifies the manner in which the PBC can focus interdisciplinary discussion in a single technical area. The conference program provided talks on arsenic toxicology| treatment technologies| management of arsenic-bearing residuals from water treatment| and the probable societal costs and benefits of arsenic management. 7921,2007,3,4,Metabolic engineering of Corynebacterium glutamicum for cadaverine fermentation,Cadaverine| the expected raw material of polyamides| is produced by decarboxylation Of L-lysine. If we could produce cadaverine from the cheapest sugar| and as a renewable resource| it would be an effective solution against global warming| but there has been no attempt to produce cadaverine from glucose by fermentation. We focused on Corynebacterium glutamicum| whose L-lysine fermentation ability is superior| and constructed a metabolically engineered C glutamicum in which the L-homoserine dehydrogenase gene (hom) was replaced by the L-lysine decarboxylase gene (cadA) of Escherichia coli. In this recombinant strain| cadaverine was produced at a concentration of 2.6g/l| equivalent to up to 9.1% (molecular yield) of the glucose transformed into cadaverine in neutralizing cultivation. This is the first report of cadaverine fermentation by C. glutamicum. 7811,2007,2,4,Meteorological influences on algal bloom potential in a nutrient-rich blackwater river,1. The effect of variability in rainfall on the potential for algal blooms was examined for the St Johns River in northeast Florida. Water chemistry and phytoplankton data were collected at selected sites monthly from 1993 through 2003. Information on rainfall and estimates of water turnover rates were used in the analyses of trends in phytoplankton biomass. 2. Major trends in rainfall and runoff within the lower St Johns River catchment over the 10-year study period were marked by both significant drought and flood periods. Autumn and winter rainfall patterns were strongly correlated with the range of Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies associated with El Nino events and La Nina periods. The effect of these major shifts in rainfall was evident in the strong relationship to replacement rates for water within the lower St Johns River. 3. The eutrophic status of the river was reflected in the high concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus observed at all sampling sites| with total nitrogen concentrations up to 3100 mu g L-1 and total phosphorus concentrations up to 180 mu g L-1. 4. While it is clear that the high phytoplankton biomass and frequent blooms that characterize the freshwater portions of the lower St Johns River are fundamentally based on nutrient status| the expression of that potential was strongly correlated to water replacement rates| as revealed by the inverse relationship between phytoplankton biovolume increase and water turnover rate| with an R-2 of 0.80 for the major bloom season. The sensitivity of algal blooms to rainfall patterns over the 10-year study period suggest that longer-term temporal and spatial shifts in rainfall| such as multi-decadal cycles and the global-warming phenomenon| will also influence the frequency and intensity of algal blooms. 8103,2007,3,3,Methane emission by growing pigs and adult sows as influenced by fermentation,The fermentation of carbohydrates in pigs' digestive system| especially in the lower gut results predominantly in short chain fatty acids| gasses as CO2| H-2 and CH4 Methane (CH4) is especially interesting as it contributes to the greenhouse gas emission and thus also to the global warming. CH4 production and its relation to fermentation in growing pigs (74 diets) as well as adult sows (36 diets)| were investigated in diets varying greatly in chemical composition. All diets were assayed in digestibility and energy balance experiments in respiration chambers. Growing pigs fed diets varying in total fibre content (2.8-40%) had a CH4 production equivalent to 0.1 to 1.3% of digested energy (DE). Non-lactating sows fed at maintenance had a CH4 production equivalent to 0.4 to 3.3 % of DE. Intensively fed lactating sows had the lowest CH4 production (about 0.6% of DE). In general| the production of methane depended on fibre origin| however high variation was found between animals. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7996,2007,4,3,Methane monooxygenase gene expression mediated by methanobactin in the presence of mineral copper sources,Methane is a major greenhouse gas linked to global warming; however| patterns of in situ methane oxidation by methane-oxidizing bacteria (methanotrophs)| nature's main biological mechanism for methane suppression| are often inconsistent with laboratory predictions. For example| one would expect a strong relationship between methanotroph ecology and Cu level because methanotrophs require Cu to sustain particulate methane monooxygenase (pMMO)| the most efficient enzyme for methane oxidation. However| no correlation has been observed in nature| which is surprising because methane moncloxygenase (MMO) gene expression has been unequivocally linked to Cu availability. Here we provide a fundamental explanation for this lack of correlation. We propose that MMO expression in nature is largely controlled by solid-phase Cu geochemistry and the relative ability of Cu acquisition systems in methanotrophs| such as methanobactins (mb)| to obtain Cu from mineral sources. To test this hypothesis| RT-PCR expression assays were developed for Methylosinus trichosporium OB3b (which produces mb) to quantify pMMO| soluble MMO (the alternate MMO expressed when Cu is "unavailable")| and 16SrRNA gene expression under progressively more stringent Cu supply conditions. When Cu was provided as CUC12| pMMO transcript levels increased significantly consistent with laboratory work. However| when Cu was provided as Cu-cloped iron oxide| pMMO transcript levels increased only when mb was also present. Finally| when Cu was provided as Cu-cloped borosilicate glass| pMMO transcription patterns varied depending on the ambient mb:Cu supply ratio. Cu geochemistry clearly influences MMO expression in terrestrial systems| and| as such| local Cu mineralogy might provide an explanation for methane oxidation patterns in the natural environment. 1360,2007,2,3,Methane oxidation by an extremely acidophilic bacterium of the phylum Verrucomicrobia,Aerobic methanotrophic bacteria consume methane as it diffuses away from methanogenic zones of soil and sediment(1). They act as a biofilter to reduce methane emissions to the atmosphere| and they are therefore targets in strategies to combat global climate change. No cultured methanotroph grows optimally below pH 5| but some environments with active methane cycles are very acidic(2|3). Here we describe an extremely acidophilic methanotroph that grows optimally at pH 2.0-2.5. Unlike the known methanotrophs| it does not belong to the phylum Proteobacteria but rather to the Verrucomicrobia| a widespread and diverse bacterial phylum that primarily comprises uncultivated species with unknown genotypes. Analysis of its draft genome detected genes encoding particulate methane monooxygenase that were homologous to genes found in methanotrophic proteobacteria. However| known genetic modules for methanol and formaldehyde oxidation were incomplete or missing| suggesting that the bacterium uses some novel methylotrophic pathways. Phylogenetic analysis of its three pmoA genes ( encoding a subunit of particulate methane monooxygenase) placed them into a distinct cluster from proteobacterial homologues. This indicates an ancient divergence of Verrucomicrobia and Proteobacteria methanotrophs rather than a recent horizontal gene transfer of methanotrophic ability. The findings show that methanotrophy in the Bacteria is more taxonomically| ecologically and genetically diverse than previously thought| and that previous studies have failed to assess the full diversity of methanotrophs in acidic environments. 8303,2007,2,4,Microfungi associated with Abies needles and Betula leaf litter in a subalpine coniferous forest,We investigated microfungal assemblages on leaf litter within a subalpine forest in central Japan and their variation with season| litter depth| and litter species. Microfungal assemblages were compared for Abies needles and Betula leaf litter collected from litter and fermentation layers of the forest floor during the growing season in spring| summer| and autumn. A total of 35 and 42 species were isolated from Abies needles and Betula leaf litter| respectively. The observed variation in microfungal assemblages was primarily attributable to seasonal differences. The frequencies of Trichoderma viride| Volutella ciliata| Mucor sp.| and Umbelopsis ramanniana increased in summer| leading to a high degree of similarity of microfungal assemblages in different litter depths and litter species. Microfungal assemblages on Abies needles in spring and autumn and those on Betula leaves in spring were characterized by Trichoderma viride| V ciliata| Thysanophora penicillioides| Trichoderma polysporum| and (or) Mortierella alpina. Microfungal assemblages on Betula leaves in autumn were characterized by the absence of these species and the occurrence of Cladosporium cladosporioides. The results were discussed with an emphasis on the role of microfungi in decomposition processes and the impact on fungi of predicted future increases in global temperature. 8319,2007,5,3,Middle to late Holocene fluctuations of C-3 andC(4) vegetation in a Northern New England Salt Marsh| Sprague Marsh| Phippsburg Maine,A 3.1 m sediment core was analyzed for stable carbon isotope composition of organic matter and higher plant leaf wax (HPLW) lipid biomarkers to determine Holocene shifts in C-3 (higher high marsh) and C-4 (low and/or high marsh) plant deposition at the Sprague River Salt Marsh| Phippsburg| Maine. The carbon isotope composition of the bulk sediment and the HPLW parallel each other throughout most of the core| suggesting that terrestrial plants are an important source of organic matter to the sediments| and diagenetic alteration of the bulk sediments is minimal. The current salt marsh began to form 2500 cal yr BP. Low and/or high C-4 marsh plants dominated deposition at 2000 cal yr BP| 700 cal yr BP| and for the last 200 cal yr BP. Expansion of higher high marsh C-3 plants occurred at 1300 and 600 cal yr BP. These major vegetation shifts result from a combination of changes in relative sea-level rise and sediment accumulation rates. Average annual carbon sequestration rates for the last 2500 years approximate 40 g C yr(-1) m(-2)| and are in strong agreement with other values published for the Gulf of Maine. Given that Maine salt marshes cover an area of similar to 79 km| they represent an important component of the terrestrial carbon sink. More detailed isotopic and age records from a network of sediment cores at Sprague Marsh are needed to truly evaluate the long term changes in salt marsh plant communities and the impact of more recent human activity| including global warming| on salt marsh vegetation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8240,2007,2,4,Mineral nutrition and water use patterns of a maize/cowpea intercrop on a highly acidic soil of the tropic semiarid,Due to global warming| water is expected to become scarce especially in semiarid regions. Therefore| there is a need to increase the efficiency in water use by crops under rainfed agriculture. The effect of nutrient availability on the growth| production| root development| water relations and water use efficiency (WUE) by the intercrop maize/cowpea was investigated in 2 contrasting years (dry and wet) in the semiarid region of Brazil. The crops were grown on a strongly acidic| sandy soil with three treatments: (i) application of NPK fertilizers plus lime (NPK + lime)| (ii) application of NPK fertilizers (NPK) and (ii) control (Contr.) in low and high input regimes. The soil water balance was calculated with the crop model EPICSEAR. Application of fertilizers and lime increased biomass production and grain yield of the intercrop up to 400% and 550%| respectively| and maize suffered more from the effects of low nutrient availability and soil acidity than cowpea. The root development of both crops was strongly improved by the application of NPK and lime and cowpea developed a deeper root system which enabled this crop to keep a higher transpiration rate in the dry year. As a consequence of the shallow root system| maize was prone to water stresses caused by the dry spells and its harvest index was reduced when dry spells occurred during flowering and grain filling. Fertilizers and lime application reduced deep percolation and soil evaporation while increasing the productive transpiration flow. WUE were improved through the application of nutrients and lime and maize showed higher WUE than cowpea. The omission of lime showed only minor effects on the evaporation and transpiration WUE. The model probably over-emphasizes the effects of high At saturation on the root growth and water uptake and consequently underestimated the transpiration rate of the crops. Nevertheless| the gross WUE was reduced up to 58% when lime was omitted and NPK applied at high inputs. A balanced fertilization in combination with lime improves the root development of a maize/cowpea intercrop in acid Acrisols of the semiarid NE of Brazil. The improved root development allows a better use of soil water reserves and increases the WUE of the system. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V. 7752,2007,2,4,Mineralization and carbon turnover in subarctic heath soil as affected by warming and additional litter,Arctic soil carbon (C) stocks are threatened by the rapidly advancing global warming. In addition to temperature| increasing amounts of leaf litter fall following from the expansion of deciduous shrubs and trees in northern ecosystems may alter biogeochemical cycling of C and nutrients. Our aim was to assess how factorial warming and litter addition in a long-term field experiment on a subarctic heath affect resource limitation of soil microbial communities (measured by thymidine and leucine incorporation techniques)| net growing-season mineralization of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)| and carbon turnover (measured as changes in the pools during a growing-season-long field incubation of soil cores in situ). The mainly N limited bacterial communities had shifted slightly towards limitation by C and P in response to seven growing seasons of warming. This and the significantly increased bacterial growth rate under warming may partly explain the observed higher C loss from the warmed soil. This is furthermore consistent with the less dramatic increase in the contents of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved organic N (DON) in the warmed soil than in the soil from ambient temperature during the field incubation. The added litter did not affect the carbon content| but it was a source of nutrients to the soil| and it also tended to increase bacterial growth rate and net mineralization of P. The inorganic N pool decreased during the field incubation of soil cores| especially in the separate warming and litter addition treatments| while gross mineralized N was immobilized in the biomass of microbes and plants transplanted into the incubates soil cores| but without any significant effect of the treatments. The effects of warming plus litter addition on bacterial growth rates and of warming on C and N transformations during field incubation suggest that microbial activity is an important control on the carbon balance of arctic soils under climate change. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7899,2007,3,2,Modeling and optimization of polygeneration energy systems,The forecasted shortage of fossil fuels and the ever-increasing effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on global warming and environmental stability are two international problems with major technical| economic and political implications in the 21st century. Therefore| it is urgent to restructure present energy production and utilization systems in order to ensure that fossil fuels are used with high efficiency and low to zero emissions. Polygeneration energy systems combine power generation and chemical fuel synthesis in a single plant (producing both electricity and fuels) and thus provide a promising alternative pathway towards achieving sustainable and flexible economic development. Mixed-Integer programming (MIP) is useful in constructing long-term decision models that are suitable for investment planning and design of polygeneration infrastructure systems. This paper presents a model for the investment planning of a polygeneration energy system and a case study addressing a system for production of methanol and electricity in China during the period from 2010 to 2035. It contains five different feedstocks and twelve polygeneration technologies. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1369,2007,2,4,Modeling the effect of climate change on the distribution of oak and pine species of Mexico,We examined the vulnerability of 34 species of oaks (Quercus) and pines (Pinus) to the effects of global climate change in Mexico. We regionalized the HadCM2 model of climate change with local climatic data (mean annual temperature and rainfall) and downscaled the model with the inverse distance-weighted method. Databases of herbaria specimens| genetic algorithms (GARP)| and digital covers of biophysical variables that affect oaks and pines were used to project geographic distributions of the species under a severe and conservative scenario of climate change for the year 2050. Starting with the current average temperature of 20.2 degrees C and average precipitation of 793 mm| under the severe warming scenario mean temperature and precipitation changed to 22.7 degrees C and 660 mm| respectively| in 2050. For the conservative warming scenario| these variables shifted to 21.8 degrees C and 721 mm. Responses to the different scenarios of climate change were predicted to be species-specific and related to each species climate affinity. The current geographic distribution of oaks and pines decreased 7-48% and 0.2-64%| respectively. The more vulnerable pines were Pinus rudis| P. chihuahuana| P. oocarpa| and P. culminicola| and the most vulnerable oaks were Quercus crispipilis| Q. peduncularis| Q. acutifolia| and Q. sideroxyla. In addition to habitat conservation| we think sensitive pine and oak species should be looked at more closely to define ex situ strategies (i.e.| seed preservation in germplasm banks) for their long-term conservation. Modeling climatic-change scenarios is important to the development of conservation strategies. 7914,2007,2,4,Modeling the effects of water temperature on rice growth and yield under a cool climate: II. Model application,Impact of water temperature (T-w) on rice growth and yield in Hokkaido| Japan| one of the coolest rice producing areas in the world| were quantitatively evaluated using the newly developed growth model that can simulate the effects of T-w independently from the effects of air temperature (T-a). Using this model| first we evaluated the benefits of having T| warmer than T. for rice yield. Without this difference| simulated rice yield was reduced by almost halt Second| the model also highlighted the causes of differences among sites in rice productivity; higher productivity was attributed to higher solar radiation (RD)| higher wind speed (WS)| and higher T-w. Finally| under a scenario of future global warming| the model estimated that a 3 degrees C Ta increase above the current level increased T-w by 1 degrees C and increased yield by 6%. However| adding the effects of changes in other factors (RD and WS) increased Tw by 0 to 2 degrees C and changed yield by -30% to +41%. Our results demonstrate that T| must be considered to understand growth and yield responses of rice to climate change| especially in cool regions. 7796,2007,4,4,Modeling the maximum apparent quantum use efficiency of alpine meadow ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau,The net CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and an alpine meadow ecosystem (NEE) was measured by Eddy covariance technique in Damxung county (30 degrees 25'N| 91 degrees 05'E| 4333 m a.s.l.)| Tibet| China for three continuous growing seasons from 2003 to 2005. The apparent quantum use efficiency (a) of alpine meadow was derived based on the linear function between NEE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) under low light. A model driven by the main ecological factors| such as temperature| CO2 concentration was further adapted for alpha modeling at stand level. The key parameter of this model was the maximum apparent quantum use efficiency (alpha(o))| which could be inversed with the model. As a parameter for the growth status of a plant community; ao changed in accord with leaf area index (LAI)| and the maximum for alpine meadow was about 0.016 mu mol CO2 mu mol(-1) PAR. If considered by the soil moisture (theta)| alpha(o) was linearly correlated with theta when the soil moisture was lower than 0.2 m(3) m(-1)| and alpha(o) leveled off gradually when theta was higher than 0.2 m(3) m(-3). This model provides a method to simulate a at stand level and can be applicable to different communities. When the CO2 concentration is double in the future| the alpha of alpine meadow will increase by 7%| and the tendency might be strengthened by the global warming. 0 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8318,2007,2,3,Modelling decomposition of standard plant material along an altitudinal gradient: A re-analysis of data of Couteaux et al. (2002),We explored an alternative method to analyse data of Couteaux et al. [2002| Soil Biology and Biochemistry 34| 69-78] on the decomposition of a standard organic material in six soils along an altitudinal gradient in the Venezuelan Andes (65-3968ma.s.l.). Couteaux et al.| fitted separate two-component decomposition models to data of the individual sites| allowing the initial size of the labile and the resistant component to differ between sites. This procedure led them to conclude that the initial size of the resistant component and its decomposition rate depend on temperature while decomposition rate of the labile component does not| which seems biologically unlikely and at variance with literature. As an alternative we fitted a single two-component model to the whole data set| using identical initial component sizes for all sites. We found no statistical ground for using variable initial component sizes. It appeared that the data does not allow a conclusion on the effect of temperature on the decomposition of the labile component. We also investigated alternatives for the values of Q(10) and T-opt that were used by Couteaux et al.| and found that temperature explains a larger part of the differences in decomposition rate among sites when using a Q(10) value of 3.75 instead of 2.2 and a Top| value of 27 degrees C instead of 25 degrees C. We discuss the arguments used in model selection and the consequences for predictions of long-term accumulation of soil carbon. Our analysis suggests an even stronger positive feedback between global warming and soil carbon emission than the analysis by Couteaux et al. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 1426,2007,4,4,Modelling deforestation and land-use change: Sparse data environments,Land-use change in developing countries is of great interest to policy-makers and researchers with diverse interests. Concerns about consequences of deforestation for global climate change and biodiversity have received the most publicity| but loss of wetlands| declining land productivity and watershed management are also problems facing developing countries. Analyses of these problems are especially constrained by lack of data. This article reviews modelling approaches for data-constrained environments that involve discrete choice methods including neural nets and dynamic programming| and research results that link individual household survey data with satellite images using geographic positioning systems. 1479,2007,4,2,Modelling energy systems for developing countries,Developing countries' energy use is rapidly increasing| which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings. Energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries. However| energy systems of developing countries differ from those of industrialised countries| which has consequences for energy modelling. New requirements need to be met by present-day energy models to adequately explore the future of developing countries' energy systems. This paper aims to assess if the main characteristics of developing countries are adequately incorporated in present-day energy models. We first discuss these main characteristics| focusing particularly on developing Asia| and then present a model comparison of 12 selected energy models to test their suitability for developing countries. We conclude that many models are biased towards industrialised countries| neglecting main characteristics of developing countries| e.g. the informal economy| supply shortages| poor performance of the power sector| structural economic change| electrification| traditional bio-fuels| urban-rural divide. To more adequately address the energy systems of developing countries| energy models have to be adjusted and new models have to be built. We therefore indicate how to improve energy models for increasing their suitability for developing countries and give advice on modelling techniques and data requirements. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8344,2007,3,4,Modelling of environmental impacts of solid waste landfilling within the life-cycle analysis program EASEWASTE,A new computer-based life-cycle assessment model (EASEWASTE) has been developed to evaluate resource and environmental consequences of solid waste management systems. This paper describes the landfilling sub-model used in the life-cycle assessment program EASEWASTE| and examines some of the implications of this sub-model. All quantities and concentrations of leachate and landfill gas can be modified by the user in order to bring them in agreement with the actual landfill that is assessed by the model. All emissions| except the generation of landfill gas| are process specific. The landfill gas generation is calculated on the basis of organic matter in the landfilled waste. A landfill assessment example is provided. For this example| the normalised environmental effects of landfill gas on global warming and photochemical smog are much greater than the environmental effects for landfill leachate or for landfill construction. A sensitivity analysis for this example indicates that the overall environmental impact is sensitive to the gas collection efficiency and the use of the gas| but not to the amount of leachate generated| or the amount of soil or liner material used in construction. The landfill model can be used for evaluating different technologies with different liners| gas and leachate collection efficiencies| and to compare the environmental consequences of landfilling with alternative waste treatment options such as incineration or anaerobic digestion. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 1438,2007,4,4,Modelling the potential geographic distribution of invasive ant species in New Zealand,Despite their economic and environmental impacts| there have been relatively few attempts to model the distribution of invasive ant species. In this study| the potential distribution of six invasive ant species in New Zealand are modelled using three fundamentally different methods (BIOCLIM| DOMAIN| MAXENT). Species records were obtained from museum collections in New Zealand. There was a significant relationship between the length of time an exotic species had been present in New Zealand and its geographic range. This is the first time such a time lag has been described for exotic ant species| and shows there is a considerable time lag in their spread. For example| it has taken many species several decades (40-60 years) to obtain a distribution of 17-25% of New Zealand regions. For all six species| BIOCLIM performed poorly compared to the other two modelling methods. BIOCLIM had lower AUC scores and higher omission error| suggesting BIOCLIM models under-predicted the potential distribution of each species. Omission error was significantly higher between models fitted with all 19 climate variables compared to those models with fewer climate variables for BIOCLIM| but not DOMAIN or MAXENT. Widespread species had a greater commission error. A number of regions in New Zealand are predicted to be climatically suitable for the six species modelled| particularly coastal and lowland areas of both the North and South Islands. 8246,2007,3,3,Moderating the impact of agriculture on climate,Many options are available for reducing the impact of agriculture on climate; however| it is difficult to provide a comprehensive set of solutions because several aspects are still poorly understood. An overall assessment of the various impacts of agriculture on climate is presented. It focuses on the trade-offs among the relevant greenhouse gases (GHG)| CO2| N2O and CH4| and the geochemical and biophysical interactions between agriculture and climate. Three spatial scales are examined: field| farm| and regional scale. At the field level| both GHG and energy fluxes are related to technical decisions by the farmer. At the farm level| strategic decisions on the choice of production systems are governed by economical constraints. Land use and landscape govern the biophysical factors that act on the regional climate when spatially integrated. At the regional level| national and regional policies on GHG emissions and surface forcing influence global climate. The biochemical and geophysical contribution of agriculture to climate need to be considered using new approaches in terms of global warming. The use of GCMs appears to be an adequate tool at this scale for assessing the global effect on climate| upon which smaller-scale effects will be superimposed. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1393,2007,5,4,Modern humans in sarawak| malaysian borneo| during oxygen isotope stage 3: palaeoenvironmental evidence from the great cave of Niah,During recent reinvestigations in the Great Cave of Niah in Borneo| the 'Hell Trench' sedimentary sequence seen by earlier excavators was re-exposed. Early excavations here yielded the earliest anatomically-modern human remains in island Southeast Asia. Calibrated radiocarbon dates| pollen| algal microfossils| palynofacies| granulometry and geochemistry of the 'Hell Trench' sequence provide information about environmental and vegetational changes| elements of geomorphic history and information about human activity. The 'Hell' sediments were laid down episodically in an ephemeral stream or pool. The pollen suggests cyclically changing vegetation with forest habitats alternating with more open environments; indicating that phases with both temperatures and precipitation reduced compared with the present. These events can be correlated with global climate change sequences to produce a provisional dating framework. During some forest phases| high counts of Justicia| a plant which today colonises recently burnt forest areas| point to fire in the landscape. This may be evidence for biomass burning by humans| presumably to maintain forest-edge habitats. There is evidence from palynofacies for fire on the cave floor in the 'Hell' area. Since the area sampled is beyond the limit of plant growth| this is evidence for human activity. The first such evidence is during an episode with significant grassland indicators| suggesting that people may have reached the site during a climatic phase characterised by relatively open habitats similar to 50 ka. Thereafter| people were able to maintain a relatively consistent presence at Niah. The human use of the 'Hell' area seems to have intensified through time| probably because changes in the local hydrological regime made the area dryer and more suitable for human use. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1452,2007,5,3,Modulation of the bipolar seesaw in the southeast pacific during Termination 1,The termination of the last ice age (Termination 1; T I) is crucial for our understanding of global climate change and for the validation of climate models. There are still a number of open questions regarding for example the exact timing and the mechanisms involved in the initiation of deglaciation and the subsequent interhemispheric pattern of the warming. Our study is based on a well-dated and high-resolution alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) record from the SE-Pacific off southern Chile (Ocean Drilling Project Site 1233) showing that deglacial warming at the northern margin of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current system (ACC) began shortly after 19|000 years BP (19 kyr BP). The timing is largely consistent with Antarctic ice-core records but the initial warming in the SE-Pacific is more abrupt suggesting a direct and immediate response to the slowdown of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation through the bipolar seesaw mechanism. This response requires a rapid transfer of the Atlantic signal to the SE-Pacific without involving the thermal inertia of the Southern Ocean that may contribute to the substantially more gradual deglacial temperature rise seen in Antarctic ice-cores. A very plausible mechanism for this rapid transfer is a seesaw-induced change of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system of the ACC and the southern westerly wind belt. In addition| modelling results suggest that insolation changes and the deglacial CO(2) rise induced a substantial SST increase at our site location but with a gradual warming structure. The similarity of the two-step rise in our proxy SSTs and CO(2) over T I strongly demands for a forcing mechanism influencing both| temperature and CO(2). As SSTs at our coring site are particularly sensitive to latitudinal shifts of the ACC/southern westerly wind belt system| we conclude that such latitudinal shifts may substantially affect the upwelling of deepwater masses in the Southern Ocean and thus the release Of CO(2) to the atmosphere as suggested by the conceptual model of [Toggweiler| JR.| Rusell| J.L.| Carson| S.R.| 2006. Midlatitude westerlies| atmospheric CO(2)| and climate change during ice ages. Paleoceanography 21. doi: 10. 1029/2005PA001154]. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved. 1418,2007,5,4,Molecular signatures of Pleistocene sea-level changes that affected connectivity among freshwater shrimp in Indo-Australian waters,A major paradigm in evolutionary biology asserts that global climate change during the Pleistocene often led to rapid and extensive diversification in numerous taxa. Recent phylogenetic data suggest that past climatic oscillations may have promoted long-distance marine dispersal in some freshwater crustacea from the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA). Whether this pattern is common| and whether similar processes are acting on diversification below the species level is unknown. We used nuclear and mitochondrial molecular variation in a freshwater-dependent decapod crustacean (Macrobrachium rosenbergii)| sampled widely from the IAA| to assess the impact of Pleistocene sea-level changes on lineage diversification in this species. Fitting of an isolation with migration model enabled us to reject ongoing migration among lineages| and results indicate that isolation among both mainland-mainland and mainland-island lineages arose during the mid-Pleistocene. Our data suggest a scenario of widespread marine dispersal during Pleistocene glacial maxima (in support of the 'Pleistocene marine dispersal hypothesis') when sea levels were low| and geographical distances between fresh watersheds were greatly reduced| followed by increased isolation as sea levels subsequently rose. 7771,2007,4,4,Monitoring of environmental parameters for CO2 sequestration: a case study of Nagpur City| India,Carbon dioxide concentration is an index of total amount of combustion and natural ventilation in an urban environment and therefore required more careful attention for assessment of CO2 level in air environment. An attempt was made to monitor CO2 levels in ambient air of Nagpur city at industrial| commercial and residential sites. In addition to this a remote sensing studies and biotic survey for floral biodiversity were carried out to study the green cover at respective sampling locations. The observations showed that the largest amount of CO2 occurred at night due to absence of photosynthesis and lowest concentration of CO2 was observed in the afternoon due to photosynthesis at its maximum level. The most pollution tolerant species found in Nagpur city are having higher Air Pollution Tolerance Index (APTI) value| which acts as a natural sink for CO2 sequestration. In case of commercial site the CO2 level is highest (366 ppm) because of lowest vegetation and vehicular pollution. The generation of database of CO2 concentration and floral biodiversity along with percentage of green cover helps to formulate the strategy for prevention of global worming phenomenon. 8074,2007,3,4,Monte Carlo simulation of electron swarm parameters in c-C4F8,Perfluorocyclobutane (c-C4F8) is one of the most promising gases to be used in gas mixtures| which are the candidates to substitute for SF6 gas as high dielectric strength insulators with a reduced potential for global warming. The set of initial collision cross-sections are assembled and modified. The motion of electrons in c-C4F8 in uniform electric fields is simulated using Monte Carlo method. Also the density-normalized ionization coefficients alpha/N| attachment coefficients eta/N| the effective ionization coefficients (alpha - eta)/N| drift velocity (V-e) and the electron longitudinal diffusion coefficient (NDL) are calculated for the range of density-reduced electric field strength| 300 <= E/N <= 1000 Td. The electron swarm parameters of simulation are compared with experimental data and other results of simulation| which obtain a good agreement. However| further calculations and measurements for c-C4F8| such as eta/N and NDL are required. 7979,2007,2,4,Morphological and phenological differences in Nothofagus pumilio from contrasting elevations: Evidence from a common garden,We tested the hypothesis that contrasting elevations select distinct growth patterns and vegetative phenology in Nothofagus pumilio| a winter deciduous tree that dominates mountain forests of Patagonia. Analysis of saplings maintained under common-garden conditions for 4 years showed a significant decrease in shoot annual growth| leaf size| and a delay in bud-break| and leaf expansion with increased elevation of their site of origin. Rapid gain in height seems to be advantageous at low elevation in such light-demanding species. Lower stature high-elevation plants have wider branching angles and greater branching ratios (number of branches/number of internodes) than low-elevation plants. Compact growth at high elevation may be related to strong winds and irradiance. Plants from different elevations had distinct growth patterns during the common-garden experiment. This could be of importance in Mediterranean-climate areas characterized by highly unpredictable precipitation regimes. Also| liberation of growth-suppressed seedlings may follow different environmental signals in low- and high-habitats| which might explain such time-dependent responses to optimal conditions under cultivation. While these greenhouse-grown N. pumilio saplings showed heritable differences in plant architectural traits and leafing phenology| it was not clear how the genotypes characteristic of particular elevations would respond to longer growing seasons such as those predicted under global warming. 1499,2007,5,4,Morphotectonic evolution of the central Kenya rift flanks: Implications for late Cenozoic environmental change in East Africa,The Kenya rift valley is the classic example of an active continental rift zone. We report the rift flank cooling history based on a combination of previous apatite fission track (AFT) and new (U-Th)/He (AIIe) data. Our results corroborate the Late Cretaceous rapid cooling episode of continent-wide significance revealed previously by AFT dating. Post-Cretaceous cooling of the eastern rift flank was slow with net cooling of <20 degrees C through much of the Cenozoic. We interpret this cooling style in terms of the absence of significant relief. Samples from the western rift flank and from low elevations of the eastern rift flank reveal a late Neogene cooling episode associated with net cooling of similar to 38 degrees C| indicating that this flank was eroded to a deeper level than that to the east. The late Neogene cooling episode is interpreted as the time of uplift and shaping of the present-day relief of the graben shoulders| which attain elevations of >3400 m in central Kenya. This timing also largely coincides with the uplift of the Western Rift flanks in Uganda and Congo and with the change toward drier conditions and grassland-dominated vegetation in East Africa. We propose that the regional morphotectonic evolution of the Kenyan rift flanks contributed to late Cenozoic environmental change in East Africa| thus superimposing a pronounced local effect on global climate change at that time. 1428,2007,4,4,Mountain water tower and ecological risk estimation of the Mesta-Nestos transboundary river basin (Bulgaria-Greece),The Mesta-Nestos river basin in Bulgaria and Greece is a case study for transboundary decision-making support in south-eastern Europe and a show-case for the development of methodologies and information-gathering for the integrated regional planning of water resources. Land-use conflicts in this water-scarce region cover a wide spectrum of activities like agricultural irrigation| drinking water production| diversions for industrial water| and risk of pollution from mining| to name a few examples. Measurements of the water quality were carried out in the upper basin. Results will be illustrated by the example of the environmental situation in the alpine region of the Pirin National Park as well as in the Razlog Basin with a stronger anthropogenic impact and pollution around a former uranium mine near the village of Elesnica. The social and economic development of this transboundary region is a recently established priority for the future. It will mean an increase in water usage and more stress for the water resources if regional impacts of global climate change are verified. Problem-focused management of the catchment area as a whole on the basis of proved geo-data sets is needed for the future. 1556,2007,4,5,Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years,A novel multi-timescale analysis method| Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)| is used to diagnose the variation of the annual mean temperature data of the global| Northern Hemisphere (NH) and China from 1881 to 2002. The results show that: (1) Temperature can be completely decomposed into four timescales quasi-periodic oscillations including an ENSO-like mode| a 6-8-year signal| a 20-year signal and a 60-year signal| as well as a trend. With each contributing ration of the quasi-periodicity discussed| the trend and the 60-year timescale oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent. (2) It has been noticed that whether on century-scale or 60-year scales| the global temperature tends to descend in the coming 20 years. (3) On quasi 60-year timescale| temperature abrupt changes in China precede those in the global and NH| which provides a denotation for global climate changes. Signs also show a drop in temperature in China on century scale in the next 20 years. (4) The dominant contribution of CO2 concentration to global temperature variation is the trend. However| its influence weight on global temperature variation accounts for no more than 40.19%| smaller than those of the natural climate changes on the rest four timescales. Despite the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration| the patterns of 20-year and 60-year oscillation of global temperature are all in falling. Therefore| if CO2 concentration remains constant at present| the CO2 greenhouse effect will be deficient in counterchecking the natural cooling of global climate in the following 20 years. Even though the CO2 greenhouse effect on global climate change is unsuspicious| it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the trend of global climate changes.
1410,2007,5,4,Multiple generations of interglacial lake sediment preserved beneath the Laurentide Ice Sheet,It is generally assumed that regions glaciated by continental ice sheets offer little promise for long paleoenvironmental records due to erosional processes associated with glaciation. We show that beneath portions of the northeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet| characterized by cold-based glaciation| sediment sequences representing multiple interglaciations have been preserved within extant lake basins. Radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating confirm the antiquity of the sediments| thereby extending the terrestrial paleoenvironmental record of the Canadian Arctic by hundreds of thousands of years. The lake sediment record presented here corroborates numerous recent cosmogenic exposure dating studies indicating complex patterns of erosion beneath polar ice sheets. It also demonstrates that the presence of intact interglacial sediments does not demand unglaciated refugia. Similarly ancient sediments may be preserved in many regions formerly covered by Pleistocene ice sheets. 7938,2007,2,4,Multiple lineages and absence of panmixia in the "circumpolar" crinoid Promachocrinus kerguelensis from the Atlantic sector of Antarctica,Despite considerable interest in physiology| evolution and life history of Antarctic marine invertebrates| only a limited number of studies have examined the genetic variability and diversity patterns of these organisms. Moreover| understanding and characterizing patterns of Antarctic biodiversity has taken on a degree of urgency because of potential impacts of global warming. To expand an understanding of the evolutionary history of Antarctic marine invertebrates| the genetic diversity of the crinoid Promachocrinus kerguelensis Carpenter| 1888 was investigated| which is documented to have a circumpolar distribution extending to subantarctic islands. Specimens of P. kerguelensis were collected from the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula| and the subantarctic islands South Georgia| South Sandwich and Bouvetoya Island from 2001 to 2004. P. kerguelensis was previously subject to morphological review that confirmed the taxonomic recognition of only one species. The wide distribution and reported high dispersal capability for P. kerguelensis predicts one large panmictic population. In contrast| nucleotide sequence data from mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I and cytochrome b genes| collected herein| reveal distinct genetic structure and cryptic speciation within P. kerguelensis. In the Antarctic Atlantic sector alone| there were at least five "species-level" clades. Some of these clades are geographically limited| and most exist in sympatry. The largest and most widespread of these clades was examined to help elucidate connectivity along the subantarctic islands of the Scotia Arc and the Antarctic Peninsula. Within this clade| most genetic diversity was contained within populations| but significant differences were present between regions (Antarctic Peninsula| South Sandwich Is.| South Georgia| Bouvetoya Is.)| suggesting a corresponding lack of gene flow. Given that P. "kerguelensis" is a well-studied taxon| the finding of considerable genetic diversity within the Atlantic sector alone suggests that the recognized diversity of Antarctica's benthic marine life may be underestimated| and will rise dramatically with phylogeographic analyses of putative widespread species. 1395,2007,2,4,Mycorrhizal responses to biochar in soil - concepts and mechanisms,Experiments suggest that biomass-derived black carbon (biochar) affects microbial populations and soil biogeochemistry. Both biochar and mycorrhizal associations| ubiquitous symbioses in terrestrial ecosystems| are potentially important in various ecosystem services provided by soils| contributing to sustainable plant production| ecosystem restoration| and soil carbon sequestration and hence mitigation of global climate change. As both biochar and mycorrhizal associations are subject to management| understanding and exploiting interactions between them could be advantageous. Here we focus on biochar effects on mycorrhizal associations. After reviewing the experimental evidence for such effects| we critically examine hypotheses pertaining to four mechanisms by which biochar could influence mycorrhizal abundance and/or functioning. These mechanisms are (in decreasing order of currently available evidence supporting them): (a) alteration of soil physico-chemical properties; (b) indirect effects on mycorrhizae through effects on other soil microbes; (c) plant-fungus signaling interference and detoxification of allelochemicals on biochar; and (d) provision of refugia from fungal grazers. We provide a roadmap for research aimed at testing these mechanistic hypotheses. 1424,2007,2,4,Namaqualand - A brief overview of the physical and floristic environment,This paper provides a brief introduction to the physical environment of Namaqualand as well as an overview of patterns of plant diversity. The diverse array of parent material and geological processes that have shaped the region since the break up of Gondwanaland have created a complex| and sometimes dynamic physical environment| that is partly responsible for the patterns and processes observed in the biota today. The contemporary climate is characterised by relatively reliable| albeit low (50-250 mm pa)| winter rainfall (> 60% winter precipitation) arriving between May and September. East of the central mountains| tropical thunderstorms penetrate the region in late summer (February April). The presence of the cold Atlantic Ocean in the west not only moderates temperatures throughout Namaqualand (mean max summer temperature < 30 degrees C)| but also provides alternative sources of moisture in the form of coastal fog and heavy dew experienced in winter months. Recent analyses show that the flora of the Succulent Karoo is part of the Cape Floral Kingdom| now termed the Greater Cape Floral Kingdom. It is one of only two desert regions recognised as a global biodiversity hot-spot and contains an estimated 6356 plant species in 168 families and 1002 genera. Namaqualand| which comprises about one quarter of the area of the Succulent Karoo| contains about 3500 species in 135 families and 724 genera| with about 25% of this flora endemic to Namaqualand. This remarkable diversity| however| is not distributed evenly throughout the region| but is concentrated in many local centres of endemism usually associated either with quartzite mountain complexes or lag-gravel plains (quartz-patches). A major exception to the general pattern of centres of diversity is the true Fynbos vegetation of the highest Kamiesberg peaks where rainfall exceeds 400 mm pa. Suggested determinants of the region's exceptional floral diversity include the complex physical environment| a unique past and present climate and the region's diverse fauna| most notably insects. The challenge for the current inhabitants and scientists working in the region is to develop a better understanding of this ecosystem so that they will be equipped to deal with the challenges posed by the demands for land and the prospect of global climate change. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1425,2007,2,4,Namaqualand's climate: Recent historical changes and future scenarios,A brief outline of some issues concerning global climate change research is presented before discussing local-scale changes in Namaqaland's rainfall. Using a gridded data set derived through interpolation of station records| trends in observed rainfall for the period 1950-1999 are discussed. To assess what changes may occur during the 21st century| the downscaled results of six different General Circulation Model projections are presented. The historical trends show some clear spatial patterns| which depict regions of wetting in the central coastal belt and the north-eastern part of the domain| and extensive drying along the escarpment. Reasonably good agreement is shown by the different downscaled projections. These suggest increased late summer convective precipitation in the north-east| but extensive drying along the coast in early and mid winter consistent with the poleward retreat of rain-bearing mid-latitude cyclones. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8367,2007,2,4,National and European perspectives on climate change sensitivity of the habitats directive characteristic plant species,The main goat of the Habitats Directive| a key document for European conservation| is to maintain a 'favourable' conservation status of selected species and habitats. In the face of near-future climatic change this goat may become difficult to achieve. Here| we evaluate the sensitivity to climate change of 84 plant species that characterise the Danish habitat types included in the Habitats Directive. A fuzzy bioctimatic envelope model| linking European and Northwest African species' distribution data with climate| was used to predict climatically suitable areas for these species in year 2100 under two-climate change scenarios. Climate sensitivity was evaluated at both Danish and European scales to provide an explicit European perspective on the impacts predicted for Denmark. In all 69-99% of the species were predicted to become negatively affected by climate change at either scale. Application of international Red List criteria showed that 43-55% and 17-69% would become vulnerable in Denmark and Europe| respectively. Northwest African atlas data were used to improve the ecological accuracy of the future predictions. For comparison| using only European data added 0-7% to these numbers. No species were predicted to become extinct in Europe| but 4-7% could be lost from Denmark. Some species were predicted to become positively affected in Denmark| but negatively affected in Europe. In addition to nationally endangered species| this group would be an important focus for a Danish conservation strategy. A geographically differentiated Danish conservation strategy is suggested as the eastern part of Denmark was predicted to be more negatively affected than the western part. No differences in the sensitivity of the Habitats Directive habitats were found. We conclude that the conservation strategy of the Habitats Directive needs to integrate the expected shifts in species' distributions due to climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 8380,2007,2,4,Natural products in a world out-of-balance,The natural world is careening out of balance in many different ways. Uncontrolled population growth| global warming| loss of biodiversity| and emerging new diseases| has fostered increasing drug resistance| dependence on synthetic chemicals and drugs| unregulated natural medicines| abused natural products| and the use of natural products as agents of mass intimidation| incapacitation| and death. This is not a sustainable situation for the planet. Plants are the basis of the ecological homeostasis of Earth and its' living organisms| including the human species| and plant-based medicinal agents are used world-wide by humans and animals to treat a myriad of ailments. But| how will quality human health care| particularly in the form of locally sustainable medicinal agents| be delivered to a burgeoning global population?. 1421,2007,5,4,Neogene flora and vegetation development of the Pannonian domain in relation to palaeoclimate and palaeogeography,A survey of the Neogene flora and vegetation pattern of the Pannonian domain based on selected fossil plant assemblages is given. The paper aims to reveal the complex interrelation of tectonic-palaeogeographic evolution| climate| flora and vegetation development through the Neogene of the Pannonian domain. Flora and vegetation patterns are based on well-documented and studied fossil plant assemblages (macrofloras| primarily leaves). There are time intervals well-represented in the fossil record| e.g. the Pannonian or the Sarmatian and others with relatively few localities| e.g. the Badenian. A general but slow cooling trend is definitely observable after the Early Miocene as reflected by both quantitative climate reconstructions and floristic change| i.e. decrease of diversity| slow disappearance of thermophilous and exotic elements| as well as decrease in the variety of vegetation types. A significant decline of coldest month temperatures (as compared to warmest month temperatures) must have played a defining role in forming flora and vegetation through the Neogene. As compared to climate estimates for the Middle/Late Miocene fossil floras| warmer climate conditions are indicated by the Ipolytarnoc flora and vegetation comprising an extremely high number of thermophilous taxa as well as complex vegetation structure. The Early and Middle Miocene fossil assemblages bear a significant relevance to the tectonic pattern of the Pannonian domain. A transitional character in both flora and vegetation is indicated by the Karpatian Magyaregregy locality. Knowledge of the Badenian flora and vegetation is limited to the Middle Badenian Nogradszakal assemblage indicating cooler climate conditions which contrasts with global climate change. In contrast to the relatively poor azonal vegetation of Nogradszakal and most Pannonian localities| the more diverse Sarmatian and Pliocene floras display a strong relation to each other - attributable to palaeogeographic constraints. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8243,2007,5,4,Neoproterozoic-Early Cambrian isotopic variation and chemostratigraphy of the Lesser Himalaya| India| Eastern Gondwana,The Rodinia supercontinent had fragmented by 750 Ma and East Gondwana (India| Australia and Antarctica) separated from West Laurentia. Baltica| Africa and South America occupied other side of the Rodinia. Neoproterozoic rifting| breakup of Rodinia low latitude glaciation and global warming events have been recorded from the Lesser Himalaya of India. Chemostratigraphy of the Blaini-Krol-Tal succession indicates Precambrian-Cambrian transition lies in the Lower Tal Formation (delta C-13 = -4%. PDB). The Krol belt in the Lesser Himalaya is characterized by positive delta C-13 values (+1 to 6 parts per thousand PDB). The appearance of multicelluler Ediacaran life in the Upper Krol is consistent with hypothesis that increase in atmospheric oxygen played a major role in metazoan evolution and Cambrian diversification of life on Earth. The base of the Terminal Proterozoic System in the Lesser Himalaya is established in the Blaini Formation. The pink cap carbonate of the Blaini Formation shows negative delta C-13 value (-3 parts per thousand PDB) and this Blainian glaciation is correlated with Marinoan glacial event other regions of the Eastern Gondwana and South China| parts of Siberia and North Africa. Neoproterozic-Early Cambrian chemostratigraphy in the Lesser Himalaya is consistent in the isotopic variation where there is carbon isotopic similarity between Neoproterozoic Bambui Group in Central Brazil| South America and the Krol Formation of the Lesser Himalaya| India. In the northeastern Lesser Himalaya| India the Neoproterozoic sedimentary succession shows well developed carbonate the Buxa Dolomite shows significantly positive C-isotope ratios (delta C-13 =+3.7 to +5.4 parts per thousand PDB). The O-isotopic data also shows remarkable consistency with the 6180 values fluctuating within a narrow range between -8.9 and -7.2 parts per thousand VPDB. These isotopic results from the Eastern Lesser Himalaya correspond to the Terminal Proterozoic C-isotopic evolution| followed by oscillations during the Precambrian-Cambrian transition in the Lesser Himalaya in Eastern Gondwana. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1412,2007,4,3,Nested regional climate-chemistry simulations for central Europe,The potential impact of global climate change on regional meteorology and near-surface ozone concentrations in central Europe and the effect of model resolution on the simulated quantities were studied using a coupled climate-chemistry model. Nested simulations with a horizontal resolution of 60 km for Europe and 20 km for central Europe were performed for two time slices of about 10 years representing present-day and future climate conditions. The model results indicate that increased solar radiation due to decreased cloud cover| higher temperatures| and enhanced isoprene emissions promote the formation of tropospheric ozone in central Europe under future climate conditions. Depending on the region| the increase of the mean daily maximum ranges between 2 and 10 ppb and exceedances of the threshold of 60 ppb for the 8-hourly mean as well as the AOT40 index were found to increase considerably. General tendencies in the regional distributions of near-surface ozone were similar for 60- and 20-km resolutions. However| pronounced regional differences were found for some regions due to stronger smoothing of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions as well as flattened topography for the 60-km resolution. 8361,2007,2,4,Net emissions of CH4 and CO2 in Alaska: Implications for the region's greenhouse gas budget,We used a biogeochemistry model| the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)| to study the net methane (CH4) fluxes between Alaskan ecosystems and the atmosphere. We estimated that the current net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from Alaskan soils are; similar to 3 Tg CH4/yr. Wet tundra ecosystems are responsible for 75% of the region's net emissions| while dry tundra and upland boreal forests are responsible for 50% and 45% of total consumption over the region| respectively. In response to climate change over the 21st century| our simulations indicated that CH4 emissions from wet soils would be enhanced more than consumption by dry soils of tundra and boreal forests. As a consequence| we projected that net CH4 emissions will almost double by the end of the century in response to high-latitude warming and associated climate changes. When we placed these CH4 emissions in the context of the projected carbon budget (carbon dioxide [CO2] and CH4) for Alaska at the end of the 21st century| we estimated that Alaska will be a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere of 69 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr| that is| a balance between net methane emissions of 131 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr and carbon sequestration of 17 Tg C/yr (62 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr). 1381,2007,2,4,Net primary productivity of China's terrestrial ecosystems from a process model driven by remote sensing,The terrestrial carbon cycle is one of the foci in global climate change research. Simulating net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is important for carbon cycle research. In this study| China's terrestrial NPP was simulated using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS)| a carbon-water coupled process model based on remote sensing inputs. For these purposes| a national-wide database (including leaf area index| land cover| meteorology| vegetation and soil) at a I km resolution and a validation database were established. Using these databases and BEPS| daily maps of NPP for the entire China's landmass in 2001 were produced| and gross primary productivity (GPP) and autotrophic respiration (RA) were estimated. Using the simulated results| we explore temporal-spatial patterns of China's terrestrial NPP and the mechanisms of its responses to various environmental factors. The total NPP and mean NPP of China's landmass were 2.235GtC and 235.2gCm(-2) yr(-1)| respectively; the total GPP and mean GPP were 4.418 GtC and 465 gCm m(-2) yr(-1) 1; and the total RA and mean RA were 2.227 GtC and 234 gC m-2 yr-1| respectively. On average| NPP was 50.6% of GPP. In addition| statistical analysis of NPP of different land cover types was conducted| and spatiotemporal patterns of NPP were investigated. The response of NPP to changes in some key factors such as LAI| precipitation| temperature| solar radiation| VPD and AWC are evaluated and discussed. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8379,2007,4,4,New global tropical cyclone data from ISCCP B1 geostationary satellite observations,In light of recently documented hypotheses relating long-term trends in tropical cyclone (TC) activity and global warming| the need for consistent reanalyses of historical TC data records has taken on a renewed sense of urgency. Such reanalyses rely on satellite data| but until now| no comprehensive global satellite data set has been available for studying tropical cyclones. Here a new hurricane satellite (HURSAT) data record is introduced that will facilitate the reanalysis of TCs by providing satellite imagery in a standard format for the period of record 1983 to 2005. The data are collected from Japanese| European and U. S. geostationary satellites and the infrared window channel data| which are particularly relevant for TC analyses| have been recalibrated to reduce inter-satellite differences. Observations are provided on a 0.07 degrees x 0.07 degrees (similar to 8km) Lagrangian grid that follows the TC center at 3-hourly intervals. The data set will be updated annually and work is also underway to expand the data set backward to the late 1970s. 7733,2007,5,4,New material of Alagomyidae (Mammalia| Glires) from the Late Paleocene Subeng locality| Inner Mongolia,Newly discovered specimens of alagomyids| mostly isolated teeth collected by screenwashing at the Gashatan (Late Paleocene) Subeng locality in Inner Mongolia| document considerable intraspecific variation in Tribosphenomys minutus that has not been appreciated previously because of limited sample sizes. P4s of Tribosphenomys are described for the first time| which helps to clarify the posterior premolar identification of alagomyids. Some of the alagomyid specimens are referred to Tribosphenomys cf. T secundus and Neimengomys qii gen. and sp. nov. Based on the new data| Tribosphenomys borealis from the Bumban Member of the Naran Bulak Formation| Mongolia| is considered to be a junior synonym of Alagomys inopinatus| and T tertius from the Zhigden Member of the Naran Bulak Formation is regarded as a junior synonym of T minutus. Alagomyidae| consisting of Tribosphenomys| Alagomys and Neimengomys| is maintained as a valid family. The presence of a diversity of alagomyids and other recently obtained fossils and stratigraphic evidence from the Erlian Basin suggest that the Gashatan and Bumbanian of Asia are probably correlative to the late Tiffanian-early Wasachian of North America. The faunal turnover during the Gashatan and Bumbanian in Asia is probably related to the Late Paleocene-Early Eocene global warming| but current evidence is insufficient to link any specific event with the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. 7939,2007,2,4,New record of Chrysomya rufifacies (Diptera : Calliphoridae) in Canada: predicted range expansion and potential effects on native species,This is the first report of the hairy maggot blow fly| Chrysomya rufifacies (Macquart)| in Canada since its arrival in the continental United States of America in 1982. Specimens were collected from one swine (Sus scrofa L.) carcass in fall 2004 and again from six swine carcasses at three rural sites within the Windsor/Essex County region of southwestern Ontario in fall 2005. Based upon the biological characteristics of the species and the absence of specimens from spring and summer carrion-insect collections| it is suggested that C. rufifacies is present in southwestern Ontario during the fall season| after range expansion from the midcontinental United States of America during the spring and summer months. However| considering the projected increases in temperature due to global warming| establishment of C. rufifacies is predicted to extend well into southern Ontario and Quebec. Current and predicted distributions based upon the biological temperature requirements of C. rufifacies are depicted through geographic range maps. The potential economic and ecological impacts are discussed| with emphasis upon negative interactions between C. rufifacies and several native blow fly species| particularly Cochliomyia macellaria (Fabr.). 1392,2007,3,4,New sources will drive global emissions,Nearly all policy initiatives to mitigate climate change have adopted the cap and trade approach| perhaps because this approach has worked so well for reducing SOx and NOx from existing power plants in the US. However| new sources| not existing sources| will be primarily responsible for global CO2 emissions in the 21st century| since new sources provide for growth and replace existing sources at the end of their useful lives. Hence| policy initiatives should be designed for new sources rather than for existing sources| and cap and trade may not be the best approach. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7949,2007,2,4,New Zealand native seed germination requirements: a review,The value of New Zealand's unique flora is acknowledged in many sectors| as is the fact that it is vulnerable because of isolation| global warming| land-use intensification| and biosecurity incursion. Concerns are increasing as native regeneration appears to be decreasing. Preservation of plant species is usually possible through seeds| but success requires knowledge of optimal harvest| storage| and germination requirements. Despite the diligence of a few researchers| this information is still scarce. This review brings together information on native seeds published in the last two decades| building on the previous review published in this journal in 1991. Suggestions for research in the future| in both approach and priorities| are made. 1481,2007,2,4,New Zealand risk management approach for toxic cyanobacteria in drinking water,Cyanobacterial blooms are common seasonal phenomena occurring worldwide in fresh| estuarine and coastal waters| including those used for drinking-water supplies| recreation and stock watering. In New Zealand| the frequency of blooms and their geographic spread is likely to grow with increasing eutrophication and global climate change. The New Zealand Ministry of Health has recently developed national criteria for assessing and managing the risk of toxic cyanobacteria in drinking-water supplies. This paper investigates a cyanobacterial bloom incident in the summer 2002/03 in the Waikato River and hydro lakes| which are a major drinking-water supply for Hamilton City and many other smaller towns along the river. The procedures invoked by the Hamilton City Council and other authorities to deal with this bloom event are considered in terms of the best practice of the day and compared with the Drinking-Water Standards for New Zealand 2005. The presence of cyanobacteria has significant economic effects because of increases in water supply treatment costs or the need to use an alternative source| and there are also social effects from the disruption of recreational use of water bodies and loss of confidence in the quality of reticulated| treated water supplies. Notional evaluation of economic cost of monitoring regimes and control| based on the Waikato River cyanobacterial bloom incident| is also given. The multi-barrier and process-control risk management approach| reliant on good vertical communication systems between central and local government| is an advanced approach useful for any country that regularly experiences cyanobacterial problems. 8317,2007,3,4,NO| N2O| CH4 and fluxes in winter barley field of Japanese Andisol as affected by N fertilizer management,The study was carried out at the experimental station of the Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences to investigate gas fluxes from a Japanese Andisol under different N fertilizer managements: CID| a deep application (8 cm) of the controlled release urea; UD| a deep application (8 cm) of the conventional urea; US| a surface application of the conventional urea; and a control| without any N application. NO| N2O| CH4 and CO2 fluxes were measured simultaneously in a winter barley field under the maize/barley rotation. The fluxes of NO and N2O from the control were very low| and N fertilization increased the emissions of NO and N2O. NO and N2O from N fertilization treatments showed different emission patterns: significant NO emissions but low N2O emissions in the winter season| and low NO emissions but significant N2O emissions during the short period of barley growth in the spring season. The controlled release of the N fertilizer decreased the total NO emissions| while a deep application increased the total N20 emissions. Fertilizer-derived NO-N and N2O-N from the treatments CD| UD and US accounted for 0.20 +/- 0.07%| 0.71 +/- 0.15%| 0.62 +/- 0.04%| and 0.52 +/- 0.04%| 0.50 +/- 0.09%| 0.35 +/- 0.03%| of the applied N| respectively| during the barley season. CH4 fluxes from the control were negative on most sampling dates| and its net soil uptake was 33 +/- 7.1 ing m(-2) during the barley season. The application of the N fertilizer decreased the uptake of atmospheric CH4 and resulted in positive emissions from the soil. CO2 fluxes were very low in the early period of crop growth while higher emissions were observed in the spring season. The N fertilization generally increased the direct CO2 emissions from the soil. N2O| CH4 and CO2 fluxes were positively correlated (P < 0.01) with each other| whereas NO and CO2 fluxes were negatively correlated (P < 0.05). The N fertilization increased soil-derived global warming potential (GWP) significantly in the barley season. The net GWP was calculated by subtracting the plant-fixed atmospheric CO2 stored in its aboveground parts from the soil-derived GWP in CO2 equivalent. The net GWP from the CD| UD| US and the control were all negative at -243 +/- 30.7| -257 +/- 28.4| -227 +/- 6.6 and -143 +/- 9.7 g C m(-2) in CO2 equivalent| respectively| in the barley season. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1565,2007,2,4,Nonlinear effects of climate change on phosphorus stability in wetlands: Concept and estimation,Effects of climate change on ecosystems like freshwater wetlands cannot be understood without focusing research on getting sense of vulnerability and resiliency at the systemic level| involving tipping points| rapid changes in events and states| because of the interdependency of various components that are subject to nonlinear changes even though they may exert significant inertia to short-term hydro-climatic fluctuations. Depending on resilience| threshold and lag times| hydro-climatic changes brought upon by global climate change may cause nonlinear and/or irreversible changes in phosphorus (P) dynamic| and instigate P enrichment in freshwater wetlands. Thus| the studies of the influence of expected global climate change and its direct and indirect effects on bioavailability/stability of organic P in wetlands are in critical need to help manage or increase the resilience of wetland ecosystem against any abrupt or irreversible changes that may adversely affect the ecosystem and its services. Phosphorus dynamic in freshwater wetland system is likely to behave nonlinearly due to expected changes in temperature| and sediment/soil and water acidity and redox status because of global climate change in the decades to come| thereby freshwater wetland| a sensitive ecosystem that plays critical role ranging from water quality management to atmospheric CO2 removal| could face irreversible or hysteretic adverse changes. The overall objectives of this paper are to provide consolidated information on identification and estimation of any nonlinear behaviors in the stability/bioavailability of various P forms| which are present in water columns| detritus and soils/sediments| at different levels of stressors in light of changing global climate. Addressing how stable organic P is| and at what threshold level and lag time would organic P behave nonlinearly and release back into the water column| in turn| exacerbate eutrophic conditions| are crucial. Learning the resilience| threshold level and lag times allows us to gauge the strengths and weaknesses of our technological advances and policies that may help us to cope with nonlinear impacts of global climate change on ecosystems such as wetlands. The relationships developed between P mobilization processes| stressors' levels and lag time can provide invaluable insights for the formulation of management strategies that could increase resilience in freshwater wetlands| which may be subjected to nonlinear ecological responses. 1453,2007,4,4,Nonparametric methods for modeling GCM and scenario uncertainty in drought assessment,[1] Hydrologic implications of global climate change are usually assessed by downscaling appropriate predictors simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). Results from GCM simulations are subjected to a number of uncertainties due to incomplete knowledge about the underlying geophysical processes of global change (GCM uncertainties) and due to uncertain future scenarios (scenario uncertainties). With a relatively small number of GCMs available and a finite number of scenarios simulated by them| uncertainties in the hydrologic impacts at a smaller spatial scale become particularly pronounced. In this paper| a methodology is developed to address such uncertainties for a specific problem of drought impact assessment with results from GCM simulations. Samples of a drought indicator are generated with downscaled precipitation from available GCMs and scenarios. Since it is very unlikely that such small samples resulting from GCM scenarios fit a known parametric distribution| nonparametric methods such as kernel density estimation and orthonormal series methods are used to determine the probability distribution function (PDF) of the drought indicator. Principal component analysis| fuzzy clustering| and statistical regression are used for downscaling the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) output from the GCMs to precipitation at a smaller spatial scale. Reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are used in relating precipitation with MSLP. The information generated through the PDF of the drought indicator in a future year may be used in long-term planning decisions. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the drought-prone Orissa meteorological subdivision in India. 1457,2007,2,2,Northerly range extensions of mammalian species in Minnesota,An inventory and monitoring program for species of non-volant small mammals was undertaken in Voyageurs National Park on the Minnesota-Canadian border. Other observations of mammals were made in and around the Park (1967-2004). Here we report species range extensions| most noted since 1982| for four species of rodents present in and/or around the Park and Superior National Forest. They are the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus)| rock vole (Microtus chrotorrhinus)| Franklin's ground squirrel (Spermophilus franklinii) and eastern gray squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis). We also report the expansions within the state of the badger (Taxidea taxus) and the raccoon (Procyon lotor)| previously known to occur further north in Canada. The results are discussed in the context of inventorying strategies| anthropogenic global climate change and the reservoirs for diseases transmissible to humans. 7853,2007,2,4,Northward invasion and range expansion of the invasive fern Thelypteris dentata (Forssk.) St. John into the urban matrix of three prefectures in Kinki District| Japan,This study investigated the current distribution of an invasive tropical fern| Thelypteris dentata| and its habitat type in three Japanese prefectures (Osaka| Kyoto| and Shiga) in the Kinki District. The results showed that T. dentata has expanded its distribution into highly urbanized areas in Osaka Prefecture and has reached southern Kyoto Prefecture and central Shiga Prefecture. The distribution of T. dentata populations thus seems to have expanded northward based on comparisons with the distribution that was determined in the 1980s. Because the fern's habitat types were mainly the side walls or bottoms of drainage channels| crevices in stone walls and roadsides| the urban matrix has not served as a barrier to the expansion of the range of T. dentata; on the contrary| it may be serving as a type of heat island corridor that is facilitating the spread of this species. 8373,2007,3,4,Nucleation and control of clathrate hydrates: insights from simulation,Clathrate hydrates are important in both industrial and geological settings. They give rise to many technological and environmental applications| including energy production| gas transport| global warming and CO2 capture and sequestration. In all of these applications there is a need to exert a high degree of control on the crystallisation process| either to promote or inhibit it according to the application. This crystallisation process involves the formation of a tetrahedral hydrogen bonding network (as occurs with ice)| but is complicated by mass transport limitations due to the poor mixing of the common guest molecules| such as methane| and the water that forms the host lattice. The net effect is that the mechanisms for hydrate formation and growth are still poorly understood| with the consequence that development of additives to control nucleation and growth is still largely governed by trial-and-error approaches. In this paper we show how classical molecular dynamics simulations can be used to provide a direct simulation of the nucleation process for methane hydrate and consequently to allow direct simulation of the effect of additives on the nucleation and growth process. Data are presented for oligomers of PVP and compared with existing data for PDMAEMA. The results show that the two additives work by very different mechanisms| with PVP increasing the surface energy of the interfacial region and PDMAEMA adsorbing to the surface of hydrate nanocrystals. The surface energy effect is a mechanism that has not previously been considered for hydrate inhibitors. 7880,2007,3,3,Numerical analysis of an air condenser working with the refrigerant fluid R407C,As CFC (clorofluorocarbon) and HCFC (hydrochlorofluorocarbon) refrigerants which have been used as refrigerants in a vapour compression refrigeration system were know to provide a principal cause to ozone depletion and global warming| production and use of these refrigerants have been restricted. Therefore| new alternative refrigerants should be searched for| which fit to the requirements in an air conditioner or a heat pump| and refrigerant mixtures which are composed of HFC (hydrofluorocarbon) refrigerants having zero ODP (ozone depletion potential) are now being suggested as drop-in or mid-term replacement. However also these refrigerants| as the CFC and HCFC refrigerants| present a greenhouse effect. The zeotropic mixture designated as R407C (R32/Rl25/R134a 23/25/52% in mass) represents a substitute of the HCFC22 for high evaporation temperature applications as the air-conditioning. Aim of the paper is a numerical-experimental analysis for an air condenser working with the non azeotropic mixture R407C in steady-state conditions. A homogeneous model for the condensing refrigerant is considered to forecast the performances of the condenser; this model is capable of predicting the distributions of the refrigerant temperature| the velocity| the void fraction| the tube wall temperature and the air temperature along the test condenser. Obviously in the refrigerant de-superheating phase the numerical analysis becomes very simple. A comparison with the measurements on an air condenser mounted in an air channel linked to a vapour compression plant is discussed. The results show that the simplified model provides a reasonable estimation of the steady-state response and that this model is useful to design purposes. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7838,2007,2,4,Numerical simulation of the carbon cycle over the Tibetan plateau| China,Significant interaction occurs between ecosystem physiological processes and climate. Studying this interaction is beneficial for understanding dynamics of climate change as well as forecasting future climate change. On the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau| the highest plateau in the world| interaction between ecosystem physiological processes and climate affect mid-levels of the atmosphere| so the study of this interaction has a special significance. We use two models| a carbon cycle model (CCM3) and a land surface model (LSM)| to simulate ecosystem carbon cycle characteristics over the Tibetan Plateau and its influence on climate. The CO2 flux varies seasonally with ecosystem physiology processes on the Plateau: fluxes are highest in summer and lowest in winter. The seasonal variation of vegetation net CO2 flux shows that vegetation is an atmospheric carbon sink during most of the year| except in winter. This means that vegetation could weaken the greenhouse effect| which is important in terms of global warming. The land ecosystem is a weak carbon source from October to April| and it is a carbon sink from May to September (especially between June and August). The Tibetan Plateau CO2 fluxes vary spatially. The fluxes are highest over the southwest and southeast boundary areas and the northeast region of the Plateau in summer| and are lowest in the middle and northwest regions in winter. The interaction of CO2 flux and temperature shows that higher temperatures increase vegetation photosynthesis and all respiration. The abrupt increase in land ecosystem physiological processes with increasing temperature indicates that any warming due to increased atmospheric CO2 caused by human activity will be weakened by the land ecosystem over the Tibetan Plateau. 8260,2007,2,4,Observations on future sea level changes in the Venice lagoon,'Venice is sinking while the sea level is rising' is a common statement in issues concerning the future of the Venice lagoon. The search for a reliable interpretative tool for measured sea-level changes has taken on more urgency since the sea-level rise was indexed as the consequence of global warming-with catastrophic scenarios for both the ecotone and the city| linked to increasing lagoon erosion| sudden modifications of biological equilibriums| loss of wetlands| salt aggression and an increasing frequency of exceptional high tide events. However| the peculiar hydrodynamics of the northern Adriatic Sea| made more complex by the freshwater inflow from the Po River| and the conceptual limits of existing long-term predictive systems| would suggest a more cautious approach to the scenarios yet proposed for the next century. 7787,2007,2,3,Oceanic gas hydrate instability and dissociation under climate change scenarios,Global oceanic deposits of methane gas hydrate (clathrate) have been implicated as the main culprit for a repeated| remarkably rapid sequence of global warming effects that occurred during the late Quaternary period. However| the behavior of contemporary oceanic methane hydrate deposits subjected to rapid temperature changes| like those predicted under future climate change scenarios| is poorly understood| and existing studies focus on deep hydrate deposits under equilibrium conditions. In this study| we simulate the dynamic response of several types of oceanic gas hydrate accumulations to temperature changes at the seafloor and assess the potential for methane release into the ecosystem. The results suggest that while many deep hydrate deposits are indeed stable under the influence of rapid seafloor temperature variations| shallow deposits| such as those found in arctic regions or in the Gulf of Mexico| can undergo rapid dissociation and produce significant carbon fluxes over a period of decades. Citation: Reagan| M. T.| and G. J. Moridis ( 2007)| Oceanic gas hydrate instability and dissociation under climate change scenarios| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 34| L22709| doi: 10.1029/2007GL031671. 7832,2007,4,4,On multivariate nonlinear regression models with stationary correlated errors,In this paper we consider the statistical analysis of multivariate multiple nonlinear regression models with correlated errors| using| Finite Fourier Transforms. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the weighted least squares estimates are established under various conditions on the regressor variables. These conditions involve different types of scalings| and the scaling factors are obtained explicitly for various types of nonlinear regression models including an interesting model which requires the estimation of unknown frequencies. The estimation of frequencies is a classical problem occurring in many areas like signal processing| environmental time series| astronomy and other areas of physical sciences. We illustrate our methodology using two real data sets taken from geophysics and environmental sciences. The data we consider from geophysics are polar motion (which is now widely known as "Chandlers Wobble")| where one has to estimate the drift parameters| the offset parameters and the two periodicities associated with elliptical motion. The data were first analyzed by Arato| Kolmogorov and Sinai who treat it as a bivariate time series satisfying a finite order time series model. They estimate the periodicities using the coefficients of the fitted models. Our analysis shows that the two dominant frequencies are 12 h and 410 days. The second example| we consider is the minimum/maximum monthly temperatures observed at the Antarctic Peninsula (Faraday/Vernadsky station). It is now widely believed that over the past 50 years there is a steady warming in this region| and if this is true| the warming has serious consequences on ecology| marine life| etc. as it can result in melting of ice shelves and glaciers. Our objective here is to estimate any existing temperature trend in the data| and we use the nonlinear regression methodology developed here to achieve that goal. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8094,2007,4,4,On the alignment of multiple time series fragments,We consider a local least-squares criterion for aligning multiple time series fragments differing by locations and show the consistency of the time-lag estimator and the asymptotic normality of the location estimator. We apply the criterion to the problem of aligning 50 glacial varve fragments and construct a 3000-year surrogate for global temperature. 8157,2007,5,4,On the duration of magnetochrons C24r and C25n and the timing of early Eocene global warming events: Implications from the Ocean Drilling Program Leg 208 Walvis Ridge depth transect,Five sections drilled in multiple holes over a depth transect of more than 2200 m at the Walvis Ridge (SE Atlantic) during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 208 resulted in the first complete early Paleogene deep-sea record. Here we present high-resolution stratigraphic records spanning a similar to 4.3 million yearlong interval of the late Paleocene to early Eocene. This interval includes the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) as well as the Eocene thermal maximum (ETM) 2 event. A detailed chronology was developed with nondestructive X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning records and shipboard color data. These records were used to refine the shipboard-derived spliced composite depth for each site and with a record from ODP Site 1051 were then used to establish a continuous time series over this interval. Extensive spectral analysis reveals that the early Paleogene sedimentary cyclicity is dominated by precession modulated by the short (100 kyr) and long (405 kyr) eccentricity cycles. Counting of precession-related cycles at multiple sites results in revised estimates for the duration of magnetochrons C24r and C25n. Direct comparison between the amplitude modulation of the precession component derived from XRF data and recent models of Earth's orbital eccentricity suggests that the onset of the PETM and ETM2 are related to a 100-kyr eccentricity maximum. Both events are approximately a quarter of a period offset from a maximum in the 405-kyr eccentricity cycle| with the major difference that the PETM is lagging and ETM2 is leading a 405-kyr eccentricity maximum. Absolute age estimates for the PETM| ETM2| and the magnetochron boundaries that are consistent with recalibrated radiometric ages and recent models of Earth's orbital eccentricity cannot be precisely determined at present because of too large uncertainties in these methods. Nevertheless| we provide two possible tuning options| which demonstrate the potential for the development of a cyclostratigraphic framework based on the stable 405-kyr eccentricity cycle for the entire Paleogene. 7734,2007,5,4,On the duration of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM),The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) is one of the best known examples of a transient climate perturbation| associated with a brief| but intense| interval of global warming and a massive perturbation of the global carbon cycle from injection of isotopically light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system. One key to quantifying the mass of carbon released| identifying the source(s)| and understanding the ultimate fate of this carbon is to develop high-resolution age models. Two independent strategies have been employed| cycle stratigraphy and analysis of extraterrestrial helium (HeET)| both of which were first tested on Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 690. These two methods are in agreement for the onset of the PETM and initial recovery| or the clay layer ("main body'')| but seem to differ in the final recovery phase of the event above the clay layer| where the carbonate contents rise and carbon isotope values return toward background values. Here we present a state-of-the-art age model for the PETM derived from a new orbital chronology developed with cycle stratigraphic records from sites drilled during ODP Leg 208 (Walvis Ridge| Southeastern Atlantic) integrated with published records from Site 690 (Weddell Sea| Southern Ocean| ODP Leg 113). During Leg 208| five Paleocene-Eocene (P-E) boundary sections (Sites 1262 to 1267) were recovered in multiple holes over a depth transect of more than 2200 m at the Walvis Ridge| yielding the first stratigraphically complete P-E deep-sea sequence with moderate to relatively high sedimentation rates (1 to 3 cm/ka| where "a'' is years). A detailed chronology was developed with nondestructive X- ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning records on the scale of precession cycles| with a total duration of the PETM now estimated to be similar to 170 ka. The revised cycle stratigraphic record confirms original estimates for the duration of the onset and initial recovery but suggests a new duration for the final recovery that is intermediate to the previous estimates by cycle stratigraphy and He(ET). 1441,2007,3,3,On the path to fusion energy - Teller lecture 2005,There is a need to develop alternate energy sources in the coming century because fossil fuels will become depleted and their use may lead to global climate change. Inertial fusion can become such an energy source| but significant progress must be made before its promise is realized. The high-density approach to inertial fusion suggested by Nuckolls et al. leads reaction chambers compatible with civilian power production. Methods to achieve the good control of hydrodynamic stability and implosion symmetry required to achieve these high fuel densities will be discussed. Fast Ignition| a technique that achieves fusion ignition by igniting fusion fuel after it is assembled| will be described along with its gain curves. Fusion costs of energy for conventional hotspot ignition will be compared with those of Fast Ignition and their capital costs compared with advanced fission plants. Finally| techniques that may improve possible Fast Ignition gains by an order of magnitude and reduce driver scales by an order of magnitude below conventional ignition requirements are described. 1541,2007,3,2,On the sensitivity of radiative forcing from biomass burning aerosols and ozone to emission location,Biomass burning is a major source of air pollutants| some of which are also climate forcing agents. We investigate the sensitivity of direct radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone and aerosols (carbonaceous and sulfate) to a marginal reduction in their ( or their precursor) emissions from major biomass burning regions. We find that the largest negative global forcing is for 10% emission reductions in tropical regions| including Africa (- 4.1 mWm(-2) from gas and - 4.1 mWm(-2) from aerosols)| and South America (- 3.0 mWm(-2) from gas and - 2.8 mWm(-2) from aerosols). We estimate that a unit reduction in the amount of biomass burned in India produces the largest negative ozone and aerosol forcing. Our analysis indicates that reducing biomass burning emissions causes negative global radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosols; however| regional differences need to be considered when evaluating controls on biomass burning to mitigate global climate change. 7905,2007,4,4,On the trend| detrending| and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series,Determining trend and implementing detrending operations are important steps in data analysis. Yet there is no precise definition of "trend" nor any logical algorithm for extracting it. As a result| various ad hoc extrinsic methods have been used to determine trend and to facilitate a detrending operation. In this article| a simple and logical definition of trend is given for any nonlinear and nonstationary time series as an intrinsically determined monotonic function within a certain temporal span (most often that of the data span)| or a function in which there can be at most one extremum within that temporal span. Being intrinsic| the method to derive the trend has to be adaptive. This definition of trend also presumes the existence of a natural time scale. All these requirements suggest the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method as the logical choice of algorithm for extracting various trends from a data set. Once the trend is determined| the corresponding detrending operation can be implemented. With this definition of trend| the variability of the data on various time scales also can be derived naturally. Climate data are used to illustrate the determination of the intrinsic trend and natural variability. 8109,2007,3,2,Operation of a 10 kWth chemical-looping combustor during 200 h with a CuO-Al2O3 oxygen carrier,Chemical-looping combustion (CLC) is an attractive technology to decrease greenhouse gas emissions affecting global warming| because it is a combustion process with inherent CO2 separation and therefore without needing extra equipment for CO2 separation and low penalty in energy demand. The CLC concept is based on the split of a conventional combustion of gas fuel into separate reduction and oxidation reactions. The oxygen transfer from air to fuel is accomplished by means of an oxygen carrier in the form of a metal oxide circulating between two interconnected reactors. A Cu-based material (Cu14Al) prepared by impregnation of gamma-Al2O3 as support with two different particle sizes (0.1-0.3 mm| 0.2-0.5 mm) was used as an oxygen carrier for a chemical-looping combustion of methane. A 10 kWth CLC prototype composed of two interconnected bubbling fluidized bed reactors has been designed| built in and operated at 800 degrees C during 100 h for each particle size. In the reduction stage full conversion of CH4 to CO2 and H2O was achieved using oxygen carrier-to-fuel ratios above 1.5. Some CuO losses as the active phase of the CLC process were detected during the first 50 h of operation| mainly due to the erosion of the CuO present in external surface of the alumina particles. The high reactivity of the oxygen carrier maintained during the whole test| the low attrition rate detected after 100 It of operation| and the absence of any agglomeration problem revealed a good performance of these CuO-based materials as oxygen carriers in a CLC process. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8371,2007,3,3,Options to reduce the environmental impact by eucalyptus-based Kraft pulp industry in Thailand: model description,Kraft pulp industry contributes to several environmental problems| including global warming| acidification| eutrophication| smog| toxicity and the production of solid waste. The objective of this study is to identify options to reduce the environmental pressure caused by Kraft pulp industry in Thailand| and to describe a model that quantifies the environmental impact. The model can be used to evaluate the effects of the options on the environmental impact| and the associated costs. The model includes 14 groups of options to reduce emissions and the production of waste. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7800,2007,2,4,Overcoming adverse effects of hailnets on fruit quality and microclimate in an apple orchard,BACKGROUND: With the increase of hailstorms as a possible result of global warming| fruit crops are increasingly grown under hailnets. This results in lesser fruit quality in terms of colouration| fruit mass| firmness| starch and taste| i.e. sugar and acid| and vitamin content under hailnct due to altered microclimate and light deprivation. Reflective mulches (Extenday and Daybright) were spread in autumn 2006 to improve fruit quality and light utilisation under hailnet at Klein-Altendorf Research Station near Bonn| Germany. A monophosphate (Seniphos) was applied twice for the same purpose; untreated apple cv. 'Elstar' trees served as control. RESULTS: Under the translucent| 'white' hailnet| humidity was increased by ca. 6%| air temperature reduced by ca. 1.6 degrees C| soil temperature increased by ca. 0.5 degrees C and light reduced by 11-15% resulting in lesser fruit quality of 2.5% less sugar and less taste. The two reflective mulches increased light reflection at 45 degrees and 90 degrees angles by 2.5- to 6.3-fold. No differences in fruit ripening and firmness were observed| but fruit from trees under hailnet with reflective mulch contained up to 2.4% (from 13.3 to 15.7%) more sugar than those of the control (uncovered grass alleys). A less negative normalised differential vegetation index (NDVI) of -0.3 on the red compared with -0.5 on the green fruit side indicated more chlorophyll in the outer| sun-exposed| red side of the apples relative to the shaded side. Monophosphate-treated fruits maintained the peel chlorophyll with a greener ground colour of 92-97 degrees hue and a NDVI of -0.3 as in the grassed control. Fruit in the lower canopy with reflective mulch were darker red (a value 30; 22 degrees hue) relative to the grassed control with a = 25 and 43 degrees hue (light red)| expressed in a 4-fold increase in normalised anthocyanin index (NAI)| but showed enhanced chlorophyll breakdown (NDVI from -0.2 to -0.5); similarly| the monophosphate increased the NAI by up to 2.5-fold. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of both reflective mulch cloths was most pronounced on apple fruit in the lower canopy under hailnet| which developed large vitamin C contents and a dark red top colour relative to the grassed control with enhanced chlorophyll breakdown. Both reflective mulch cloths increased the percentage of class I fruit with > 25% colouration by 12% (from 82 to 94%) without and under hailnet by 23% (from 69 to 89%) relative to the grassed control resulting in financial net gains of up to 1300 is an element of ha(-1) (c) 2007 Society of Chemical Industry. 7925,2007,3,2,Overview on contrail and cirrus cloud avoidance technology,Greenhouse gas emissions| contrails| and aviation-induced cirrus clouds are the principal pollutants from air traffic| which contribute to the anthropogenic global warming. Recent climate assessments have stressed the importance of contrails and aviation-induced cirrus clouds because they may contribute more than all other aircraft emissions combined. This paper reviews the mechanisms of contrail and aviation-induced cirrus cloud formation from which avoidance strategies are derived and discussed. 1460,2007,5,4,Oxidative forcing of global climate change: A biogeochemical record across the oldest Paleoproterozoic ice age in North America,Carbon isotope compositions of organic matter in fine-grained siliciclastic units deposited above and below glacial diamictite at the base of the ca. 2.45-2.22 Ga Huronian Supergroup in Ontario| Canada were studied to constrain relationships between profound fluctuations in the exogenic carbon cycle and dramatic climate changes at the beginning of the Proterozoic Eon. In both drill core and outcrop sections the organic matter preserved in proximal lithofacies| dominated by coarse-grained sand and silt| are enriched in (13)C relative to distal lithofacies| dominated by argillites. In the drill core| sand-dominated lithofacies of the McKim Formation beneath the glacial diamictite of the Ramsay Lake Formation have a narrow range of delta(13)C values (-28.4 to -26.0 parts per thousand VPDB)| but organic matter in argillite-dominated lithofacies of the outcrop section similar to 40 km to the southeast is somewhat more (13)C-depleted with values ranging from -34.5 to -26.4 parts per thousand. Similarly| sand-dominated lithofacies of the Pecors Formation above the glacial diamictite in the drill core section with delta(13)C values of ca. -28 parts per thousand are notably (13)C-enriched relative to argillite-dominated lithofacies| which record values as low as -40.5 parts per thousand. The sand-dominated lithofacies of the Pecors Formation in the outcrop sections have delta(13)C compositions ranging from -34.4 to -27.9 parts per thousand. The isotopic differences appear to be unrelated to organic carbon abundances| so we suggest that these are controlled by environmental differences in proximal and distal settings. The strong (13)C-depletion in the organic-lean McKim and Pecors argillites| especially in the drill core section of the Pecors Formation| is consistent with significant biological methane production and oxidative recycling by methanotrophs both before and after the ice age in shallow-water environments stratified with respect to oxygen. The rise of atmospheric oxygen and subsequent enhanced biogeochemical methane cycling in shallow-water settings likely contributed to unstable climate conditions during the Paleoproterozoic glacial epoch. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1422,2007,5,4,Palaeoclimate and vegetation change in Serbia during the last 30 Ma,In the present study| 14 published megafloras from the Serbian Cenozoic are analyzed with respect to vegetation type| palaeoclimate| and palaeogeographic settings. The floras cover a time-span from the Oligocene to the late Miocene. The results obtained are compared with continental climate records from other parts of Europe and discussed in the context of global climate change. To obtain a quantitative palaeoclimate record a total of seven different climate variables is calculated for each of the floras using the Coexistence Approach. It is shown that basic patterns of vegetation change| such as the immigration of arcto-tertiary| deciduous floristic elements during the early Miocene and the decreasing diversity of laurophyllous taxa (luring the late Miocene| are ruled by climate change and a changing palacogeography. The Serbian Cenozoic climate record shows a steep cooling gradient during the Oligocene that is most probably is connected to a northward movement of tectonic plates. The globally observed Middle Miocene Climate Optimum and the Late Miocene Cooling are well reflected. According to the palacotemperatures calculated a warm temperate climate existed in Serbia throughout the time-span examined. The Late Miocene Cooling is most pronounced in winter temperatures and is connected to increasing seasonality. Precipitation rates obtained for the Serbian Cenozoic| especially those of the warmest and wettest months| tend to be lower when compared to the Central European Cenozoic. According to climate analysis and the interpretation of vegetational data there is evidence for regionally drier conditions and increased seasonality of precipitation in the time-span from the late Badenian to the early Sarmatian. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1484,2007,2,4,Palau's coral reefs show differential habitat recovery following the 1998-bleaching event,Documenting successional dynamics of coral communities following large-scale bleaching events is necessary to predict coral population responses to global climate change. In 1998| high sea surface temperatures and low cloud cover in the western Pacific Ocean caused high coral mortality on the outer exposed reefs of Palau (Micronesia)| while coral mortality in sheltered bays was low. Recovery was examined from 2001 to 2005 at 13 sites stratified by habitat (outer reefs| patch reefs and bays) and depth (3 and 10 m). Two hypotheses were tested: (1) rates of change of coral cover vary in accordance with habitat| and (2) recovery rates depend on recruitment. Coral cover increased most in the sheltered bays| despite a low recruitment rate| suggesting that recovery in bays was primarily a consequence of remnant regrowth. Recruitment densities were consistently high on the wave-exposed reefs| particularly the western slopes| where recovery was attributed to both recruitment and regrowth of remnants. Recovery was initially more rapid at 10 m than 3 m on outer reefs| but in 2004| recovery rates were similar at both depths. Rapid recovery was possible because Palau's coral reefs were buffered by remnant survival and recruitment from the less impacted habitats. 7936,2007,5,4,Paleoclimatic information recorded in fluid inclusions in halite from Chaka salt lake| Qinghai province,Salt lake from inland and area is one of effective carriers for research of the ancient climate changes| and fluid inclusions in halite is a powerful mean to reveal the paleoclimate. Chaka Salt Lake in Qinghai Province is a comprehensive salt mine formed in Later Pleistocene| which is mainly composed of halite with coexisting solid and liquid. Study on the homogenization temperature of fluid inclusions in salt core samples from Chaka Salt Lake| indicates that the water temperature of salt lake is gradually elevated from 20 degrees C similar to 30 degrees C in early stage to about 40 degrees C in late stage since 5ka. These results suggested gradually rising for ancient climatic temperature in Chaka area| which is consistent with general trend of the global warming. It is indicated that the homogenization temperatures obtained from primary single phase liquid fluid inclusions in halite (salt) by cooling-heating methods is an efficient new mean to acquire water temperature data of salt lake and thus to reconstruct the palcoclimatic changes. Fluid inclusion method will definitely have further wide applications in salt lake investigating field. 1385,2007,5,4,Paleogeographic variations of pedogenic carbonate delta(13)C values from Koobi Fora| Kenya: implications for floral compositions of Plio-Pleistocene hominin environments,Plio-Pleistocene East African grassland expansion and faunal macroevolution| including that of our own lineage| are attributed to global climate change. To further understand environmental factors of early hominin evolution| we reconstruct the paleogeographic distribution of vegetation (C(3)-C(4) pathways) by stable carbon isotope (delta(13)C) analysis of pedogenic carbonates from the Plio-Pleistocene Koobi Fora region| northeast Lake Turkana Basin| Kenya. We analyzed 202 nodules (530 measurements) from ten paleontological/archaeological collecting areas spanning environments over a 50-km(2) area. We compared results across subregions in evolving fluviolacustrine depositional environments in the Koobi Fora Formation from 2.0-1.5 Ma| a stratigraphic interval that temporally brackets grassland ascendancy in East Africa. Significant differences in delta(13)C values between subregions are explained by paleogeographic controls on floral composition and distribution. Our results indicate grassland expansion between 2.0 and 1.75 Ma| coincident with major shifts in basin-wide sedimentation and hydrology. Hypotheses may be correct in linking Plio-Pleistocene hominin evolution to environmental changes from global climate; however| based on our results| we interpret complexity from proximate forces that mitigated basin evolution. An similar to 2.5 Ma tectonic event in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya exerted strong effects on paleography in the Turkana Basin from 2.0-1.5 Ma| contributing to the shift from a closed| lacustrine basin to one dominated by open| fluvial conditions. We propose basin transformation decreased residence time for Omo River water and expanded subaerial floodplain landscapes| ultimately leading to reduced proportions of wooded floras and the establishment of habitats suitable for grassland communities. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7831,2007,2,4,Palms tracking climate change,Aim Many species are currently expanding their ranges in response to climate change| but the mechanisms underlying these range expansions are in many cases poorly understood. In this paper we explore potential climatic factors governing the recent establishment of new palm populations far to the north of any other viable palm population in the world. Location Southern Switzerland| Europe| Asia and the world. Methods We identified ecological threshold values for the target species| Trachycarpus fortunei| based on gridded climate data| altitude and distributional records from the native range and applied them to the introduced range using local field monitoring and measured meteorological data as well as a bioclimatic model. Results We identified a strong relationship between minimum winter temperatures| influenced by growing season length and the distribution of the palm in its native range. Recent climate change strongly coincides with the palm's recent spread into southern Switzerland| which is in concert with the expansion of the global range of palms across various continents. Main conclusions Our results strongly suggest that the expansion of palms into (semi-)natural forests is driven by changes in winter temperature and growing season length and not by delayed population expansion. This implies that this rapid expansion is likely to continue in the future under a warming climate. Palms in general| and T. fortunei in particular| are significant bioindicators across continents for present-day climate change and reflect a global signal towards warmer conditions. 8225,2007,5,3,Paratropical floral extinction in the Late Palaeocene-Early Eocene,The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at c. 55.8 Ma marks a transient (c. 100 ka duration) interval of rapid greenhouse warming that had profound effects on marine and terrestrial biota. Plant communities responded rapidly with major compositional turnover. The long-term effects on tropical vegetation communities that stein from the brief period of global warming are unclear. We present pollen data from the paratropical US Gulf Coast (eastern Mississippi| western Alabama and Georgia)| which had background Palacogene mean annual temperatures of 26-27 degrees C. Sporomorph data (pollen and spores) demonstrate that taxonomic diversity increases over c. 1 Ma in the Late Palaeocene but this trend is replaced| with the first occurrences of taxa that mark the Early Eocene| by a pronounced extinction into the Early Eocene (c. 20% of the palynoflora). Taxonomic diversity also decreases by up to 38% in the Early Eocene. The timing of the extinction is not clearly resolved but may be restricted to the earliest part of the Early Eocene. Two richness estimators (Chao 2 and Jackknife 2) both demonstrate that Late Palaeocene samples contain significantly more taxa than those in the Early Eocene. Extinction on the US Gulf Coast proves that ancient tropical ecosystems were highly susceptible to changes in diversity mediated directly or indirectly by environmental change even during equable greenhouse climates in the early Palaeogene. 1531,2007,2,3,Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast,To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale| we examine past and future changes in key climate| hydrological| and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change| including seasonal temperatures| rainfall and drought| snow cover| soil moisture| streamflow| and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season| frost days| and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns| advances in high-spring streamflow| decreases in snow depth| extended growing seasons| earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover| more frequent droughts| and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends| and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. 1564,2007,4,4,Pathways of anaerobic carbon cycling across an ombrotrophic-minerotrophic peatland gradient,Peatland soils represent globally significant stores of carbon| and understanding carbon cycling pathways in these ecosystems has important implications for global climate change. We measured aceticlastic and autotrophic methanogenesis| sulfate reduction| denitrification| and iron reduction in a bog| an intermediate fen| and a rich fen in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan for one growing season. In 3-d anaerobic incubations of slurried peat| denitrification and iron reduction were minor components of anaerobic carbon mineralization. Experiments using (14)C-labeled methanogenic substrates showed that methanogenesis in these peatlands was primarily through the aceticlastic pathway| except early in the growing season in more ombrotrophic peatlands| where the autotrophic pathway was dominant or codominant. Overall| methane production was responsible for 3-70% of anaerobic carbon mineralization. Sulfate reduction accounted for 0-26% of anaerobic carbon mineralization| suggesting a rapid turnover of a very small sulfate pool. A large percentage of anaerobic carbon mineralization (from 29% to 85%) was unexplained by any measured process| which could have resulted from fermentation or possibly from the use of organic molecules (e.g.| humic acids) as alternative electron acceptors. 1591,2007,2,4,Pattern of long-term seasonal sea level fluctuations in the Baltic Sea near the Lithuanian coast,The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) analyzing global climate change tendencies and their possible impacts on the natural environment and human lifestyles has determined that the ocean and sea level fluctuations are among the indicators of climate change. Annual variations of hydrometeorological conditions were found to have been predetermined not by a steady increase or decrease of one parameter but by their variations within seasons. Therefore the present paper deals with the long-term seasonal Baltic Sea level fluctuations near the Lithuanian coast. Mean monthly values of sea level measured in the port of Klaipeda were chosen for detailed analysis of sea level fluctuations in the Baltic Sea. The long-term dynamic pattern of mean sea level fluctuations near Klaipeda includes two time spans distinguished by pronounced differences of sea level rise intensity: 1898-1975 and 1976-2005. The 51-year time span for a detailed analysis of long-term seasonal sea level fluctuations (1955-2005) was chosen purposefully because it best reflects the changes of sea level rise intensity. The analysis of long-term seasonal sea level fluctuations revealed cyclic character. Yet the monthly cycle phases not always coincide. Also it was determined that the character of maximal mean monthly sea level dynamics in cold season had changed. Generalized comparative analysis of monthly sea level dynamics and climate variations showed that the sea level dynamics was a good reflection of the climate changes in cold season (October-March)| whereas in warm season (April-September)| sea level fluctuations were not so well reflected in climate changes. 1488,2007,5,4,Peat archives from Siberia: Synchrotron beam scanning with X-ray fluorescence measurements,We used a new approach to measure the downcore distribution of some major and trace elements that record the Holocene history of peat-forming processes in peat from the Elovka mesotrophic swamp (West Siberia). The approach implies continuous non-destructive scanning of natural wet-core fragments under a sharp synchrotron beam combined with measurements of the excited X-ray fluorescence| in attempt to avoid errors due to the loss of volatiles abundant in peat. The obtained data are in good agreement with the results of the certified methods of neutron activation gamma-spectrometry (INAA) and classical SR XRF| though| as we expected| there is some discrepancy in the contents of volatiles (Br| Zn) which are most probably lost in INAA and/or in ignition. The precision of the suggested SR XRF scanning resolved the variability of 18 elements in the peat-core deposited during 0-8 kyr bp at no worse than 30 years in most cases. The distribution of the measured elements provided a clue to the evolution of peat deposition environments that controlled biogenic production| aerosol input| post-depositional processes| and Ca mineralization associated with pore water circulation in soil during the non-mesotrophic stages of the swamp history. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1461,2007,4,4,Periodic solutions for soil carbon dynamics equilibriums with time-varying forcing variables,Numerical models that simulate the dynamics of carbon in soil are increasingly used to improve our knowledge and help our management of the carbon cycle. Calculation of the long-term behavior of these models is necessary in many applications but encounters the difficulty of managing the periodic forcing variables| e.g. seasonal variations| such as carbon inputs and decomposition rates. This calculation is conventionally done by running the model over large time durations or by assuming constant forcing variables. Two methods| which make it possible to rapidly compute periodic solutions taking into account the time variations of these variables| are proposed. The first one works on discrete-time models and the second one on continuous-time models involving Fourier transforms. Both methods were tested on the Rothamsted carbon model (RothC)| a discrete-time model which has also been given a continuous approximation| using realistic and unrealistic sets of time-varying forcing functions. Both methods provided an efficient way to compute the periodic solutions of the RothC model within the application domain of the model. Compared to running the discrete model to the equilibrium| reduction in the computational cost was of up to 95% at the expense of a maximum absolute error of 1% for the estimation of carbon stocks. For specific distributions of the forcing variables the use of Fourier transform of zero order| which was equivalent to assume constant forcing variables| led to a maximum absolute error of SS% in the estimation of the long-term behavior of the model. There| a Fourier transform of order higher than zero is required. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1379,2007,5,4,Peritidal sedimentary depositional facies and carbon isotope variation across K/T boundary carbonates from NW Adriatic platform,The K/T boundary in the Karst region (Italy and Slovenia) is well documented in correspondence to shallow water limestones. Its evidence is usually related to palaeontological data (disappearance of Cretaceous taxa and subsequent appearance of Tertiary ones)| palaeomagnetism (Ch 29r) iridium anomaly and negative shift of delta C-13. In Italy| the Padriciano section highlights the K/T boundary included in the basal breccia of a peritidal cycle. Recent investigations brought to light a short well exposed new stratigraphic sequence containing the K/T boundary| 100 m east of Padriciano| as demonstrated by lithological| palaeontological and new isotopic data. The recording of a new peritidal setting denotes stressed environmental conditions. The findings of the biota mostly correspond to the lagoonal limestones of the peritidal cycle. It consists of small opportunistic thin shelled foraminifers| ostracods and gastropods. At Padriciano| the environmental stability occurred after episodes of strong fresh water influence. The intraclasts| oncolites and stromatolites have been observed in the Padriciano section. The broken shell fragments| algae and foraminifera| have been found associated with fenestral fabric. These features indicate deposition in a shallow marine (intertidal to supratidal) environment. Algal boundstones and microbial (stromatolitic) laminae| crenulated domal laminae and crenulated conical laminae have been studied in petrographic sections for microstructures. The K/T boundary section has been analysed for the carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios. The delta C-13 values range from -3.62 to -10.01 parts per thousand (V-PDB) and the 6180 values range from -3.85 to -5.47%o (V-PDB). This extreme depiction in the delta C-13 record has already been reported from other K/T boundary sections both in the Padriciano| area (Italy) and in Slovenia (Dolenja Vas sections) and may be related to global climate change but also to local environmental changes occurring in the NW Adriatic Platform. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7802,2007,2,4,Persistent growth effects of temperature and photoperiod in Atlantic cod Gadus morhua,Short-term environmental manipulations during the early juvenile stage have a large impact on harvesting size of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua nearly 3 years later. A group of juvenile Atlantic cod (initial mass 9.5 g) were reared for 3 months under simulated natural photoperiod or continuous light| and a range of temperatures (7| 10| 13 and 16 C| and a group called T-step| i.e. with temperature reduced successively from 16 to 13 and 10 C). After termination of the laboratory trial| the fish were moved to sea pens and reared at ambient conditions for 30 months before harvesting in June 2006. Observed growth gain from the 3 month laboratory trial was still persistent following the 30 months of sea-pen ongrowing. The T-step group displayed 15| 13| 1 and 10% superior mass gain respectively than the groups initially at 7| 10| 13 and 16 C at harvest in June 2006. Similarly| rearing under continuous light during the initial 3 month period during the early juvenile stage resulted in 1-9% larger size at harvesting compared to fish reared at simulated natural photoperiod. Gonado-somatic and hepato-somatic indices were similar in all groups. Contribution to the understanding of the mechanism behind size variation in adult fish can have wide range applications for Atlantic cod fisheries and aquaculture. (C) 2007 The Authors. 7966,2007,3,3,Personal carbon trading: a potential "stealth intervention" for obesity reduction?,The obesity epidemic and global warming are linked through energy use. A personal carbon trading scheme aimed at reducing fossil fuel usage could act as a "stealth intervention" for reducing obesity by increasing personal energy use. Such a scheme would complement a corporate "cap and trade" system for carbon emissions| which should increase the relative price of processed| energy-dense foods. The scheme would work by reducing global carbon emissions to a sustainable level (contraction)| while offering potential for trade of emission rights between frugal and profligate users of non-renewable energy (convergence). A key goal would be changed attitudes to conspicuous (and obesogenic) consumption. Adoption of the scheme would make healthy choices the easy choice. 7803,2007,2,4,Perspectives on marine zooplankton lipids,We developed new perspectives to identify important questions and to propose approaches for future research on marine food web lipids. They were related to (i) structure and function of lipids| (ii) lipid changes during critical life phases| (iii) trophic marker lipids| and (iv) potential impact of climate change. The first addresses the role of lipids in membranes| storage lipids| and buoyancy with the following key question: How are the properties of membranes and deposits affected by the various types of lipids? The second deals with the importance of various types of lipids during reproduction| development| and resting phases and addresses the role of the different storage lipids during growth and dormancy. The third relates to trophic marker lipids| which are an important tool to follow lipid and energy transfer through the food web. The central question is how can fatty acids be used to identify and quantify food web relationships? With the fourth| hypotheses are presented on effects of global warming| which may result in the reduction or change in abundance of large| lipid-rich copepods in polar oceans| thereby strongly affecting higher trophic levels. The key question is how will lipid dynamics respond to changes in ocean climate at high latitudes?. 1374,2007,2,4,Perspectives on the long-term dynamics of lakes in the landscape,Lakes are valued as a part of our "sense of place" at a very local and personal level. Yet protecting a treasured lake from unwanted change increasingly requires that we address long-term drivers acting over broad spatial scales. Global climate change and invasion of exotics| for examples| cannot be dealt with efficiently or even at all at an individual lake scale. Protecting our lake requires regional and global advocacy and action. When we do not act at these longer and broader scales we are often beset with surprises| live with problems not of our choosing| seek solutions for thousands of lakes one lake at a time| and often must live with or manage the consequences of irreversible changes. 1502,2007,2,4,Phenological responses of plants to climate change in an urban environment,Global climate change is likely to alter the phenological patterns of plants due to the controlling effects of climate on plant ontogeny| especially in an urbanized environment. We studied relationships between various phenophases (i.e.| seasonal biological events) and interannual variations of air temperature in three woody plant species (Prunus davidiana| Hibiscus syriacus| and Cercis chinensis) in the Beijing Metropolis| China| based on phenological data for the period 1962-2004 and meteorological data for the period 1951-2004. Analysis of phenology and climate data indicated significant changes in spring and autumn phenophases and temperatures. Changes in phenophases were observed for all the three species| consistent with patterns of rising air temperatures in the Beijing Metropolis. The changing phenology in the three plant species was reflected mainly as advances of the spring phenophases and delays in the autumn phenophases| but with strong variations among species and phenophases in response to different temperature indices. Most phenophases (both spring and autumn phenophases) had significant relationships with temperatures of the preceding months. There existed large inter- and intra-specific variations| however| in the responses of phenology to climate change. It is clear that the urban heat island effect from 1978 onwards is a dominant cause of the observed phenological changes. Differences in phenological responses to climate change may cause uncertain ecological consequences| with implications for ecosystem stability and function in urban environments. 7797,2007,4,5,Phenomenological reconstructions of the solar signature in the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature records since 1600,A phenomenological thermodynamic model is adopted to estimate the relative contribution of the solar-induced versus anthropogenic-added climate forcing during the industrial era. We compare different preindustrial temperature and solar data reconstruction scenarios since 1610. We argue that a realistic climate scenario is the one described by a large preindustrial secular variability ( as the one shown by the paleoclimate temperature reconstruction by Moberg et al. ( 2005)) with the total solar irradiance experiencing low secular variability ( as the one shown by Wang et al. ( 2005)). Under this scenario the Sun might have contributed up to approximately 50% ( or more if ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite ( Willson and Mordvinov| 2003) is implemented) of the observed global warming since 1900.
8215,2007,2,4,Photosynthetic and respiratory acclimation to experimental warming for four species in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem,Global temperature has been increased by 0.6 degrees C over the past century and is predicted to increase by 1.4-5.8 degrees C by the end of this century. It is unclear what impacts global warming will have on tallgrass species. In the present study| we examined leaf net photosynthetic rate (P-n) and leaf respiration rate in darkness (R-d) of Aster ericoides (L.) Nesom| Ambrosia psilostachya DC.| Helianthus mollis Lam.| and Sorghastrum nutans (L.) Nash in response to experimental warming in a taligrass prairie ecosystem of the Great Plains| USA| in the autumn (fall) of 2000 and through 2001. Warming has been implemented with infrared heaters since 21 November 1999. The P-n increased significantly in spring| decreased in early fall| and did not change in summer and late fall in the four species under warming compared with control. The R-d of the four species increased significantly until mid-summer and then did not change under warming. Measured temperature-response curves of P-n showed that warming increased the optimum temperature of P-n (T-opt) by 2.32 and 4.59 degrees C for H. mollis and S. nutans| respectively| in August| whereas there were no changes in May and September| and A. ericoides and A. psilostachya also showed no changes in any of the 3 months. However| P-n at optimum temperature (P-opt) showed downregulation in September and no regulation in May and August for all four species. The temperature-response curves of R-d illustrate that the temperature sensitivity of R-d| Q(10)| was lower in the warmed plots compared with the control plots| except for A. ericoides in August| whereas there were no changes in May and September for all four species. The results of the present study indicate that photosynthetic and respiratory acclimation varies with species and among seasons| occurring in the mid-growing season and not in the early and late growing seasons. 8315,2007,2,4,Physiological constraints on the global distribution of Trichodesmium - effect of temperature on diazotrophy,The cyanobacterium Trichodesmium is an important link in the global nitrogen cycle due to its significant input of atmospheric nitrogen to the ocean. Attempts to incorporate Trichodesmium in ocean biogeochemical circulation models have| so far| relied on the observed correlation between temperature and Trichodesmium abundance. This correlation may result in part from a direct effect of temperature on Trichodesmium growth rates through the control of cellular biochemical processes| or indirectly through temperature influence on mixed layer depth| light and nutrient regimes. Here we present results indicating that the observed correlation of Trichodesmium with temperature in the field reflects primarily the direct physiological effects of temperature on diazotrophic growth of Trichodesmium. Trichodesmium IMS-101 ( an isolate of T. erythraeum) could acclimate and grow at temperatures ranging from 20 to 34 degrees C. Maximum growth rates (mu(max) = 0.25 day(-1)) and maximum nitrogen fixation rates (0.13 mmol N mol POC-1 h(-1)) were measured within 24 to 30 degrees C. Combining this empirical relationship with global warming scenarios derived from state-of-the-art climate models sets a physiological constraint on the future distribution of Trichodesmium that could significantly affect the future nitrogen input into oligotrophic waters by this diazotroph. 8140,2007,3,4,Planning for a climate-changed world,A flood surge height of 10 foot in New York City's environs should occur about once every 100 years| on average| in the estimation of one Columbia University study. But global warming and rising sea levels as well as the possibility of more intense precipitation| stronger storms| and altered storm trajectories will make such disasters more frequent. And to protect the people who live and work where disaster threatens| the critical first step is to determine how quickly and by how much| exactly| the threat is increasing. That knowledge is essential to deciding how seriously to consider specific countermeasures; for New York| these could range from mandatory evacuation plans for seaside neighborhoods to multibillion-dollar stormsurge barriers spanning the Verrazano Narrows and other key channels. 1380,2007,4,4,Plant functional types can predict decade-scale changes in fire-prone vegetation,1. Plant functional types (PFTs) are groups of species sharing traits that govern their mechanisms of response to environmental perturbations such as recurring fires| inundation| grazing| biological invasions and global climate change. The key components of a PFT approach are an underlying model of vegetation dynamics for a given system and a classification of functional types based on traits deduced from key processes in the model. 2. Prediction and generalization underpin the potential utility of the PFT approach for understanding ecosystem behaviour. For PFTs to be useful in ecosystem management| they (in concert with their underlying model) must reliably predict vegetation change under given environmental scenarios and they must produce robust generalizations across the species that are classified and the range of environments in which they occur. 3. The efficacy of plant functional types has been explored using various approaches in a wide range of ecosystems. However| very few studies have tested the accuracy and generality of PFT predictions against vegetation changes observed empirically over medium to long time scales. 4. We applied this approach to examine the predictive accuracy and generality of a PFT classification and an associated model of vegetation dynamics for a fire-prone| species-rich wet heathland in south-eastern Australia. We assigned each species to one of six PFTs derived using a deductive approach based on the vital attributes scheme. We measured their initial abundance at a set of sample sites distributed across local environmental gradients. We used the PFT traits and processes in the underlying model to predict qualitative changes in abundance in response to a fire regime scenario observed at the sample sites during a subsequent period of 21 years. We then re-surveyed the sample sites to compare predictions with observed changes in abundance. 5. The PFTs and their underlying model produced an accurate prediction of average vegetation responses over the 21-year period. The majority of species within each PFT exhibited the predicted response and few species had strongly opposing responses in different environments. However| not all species within a PFT underwent the predicted direction of change| and responses of individual species were not uniform across the environmental gradients. 6. Synthesis. We conclude that plant functional types based on vital attributes are very useful tools for prediction and generalization in ecosystem management| although interpretations need to be tempered by the fact that PFTs may not accurately predict responses of all species across all environments. 8263,2007,2,4,Plant guilds drive biomass response to global warming and water availability in subalpine grassland,1. The consequences of global warming and changes in resource availability were investigated in subalpine grasslands in the Pyrenees. These communities are considered to be especially vulnerable to climate change because of their position at the south-western edge of the semi-natural grassland biome in Europe. 2. Changes in patterns of above- and below-ground biomass were assessed for different plant guilds in two experiments| in which turves were transplanted from upland to lowland locations. The first experiment aimed to evaluate general responses to warming and drought| and the second to disentangle the effects of possible underlying mechanisms through resource manipulation by means of a nitrogen x phosphorus fertilization experiment. 3. The increased above-ground biomass in grassland turves transplanted to lowlands suggested that biomass production was more temperature-limited than water-limited. The enhancement effect found in the upland turves following phosphorus addition supported the hypothesis of a strong limitation arising from reduced nutrient availability| confirming the central role played by phosphorus in these grasslands and its potential importance in the response to global change. 4. Nitrogen addition did not stimulate total biomass but affected guild composition. Grasses dominated the uplands and at high resource levels| while forbs dominated the lowlands and when water and nutrients decreased. The counterintuitive effect of increased biomass with decreased water in the lowlands was related to shifts in dominance from grasses to forbs| probably enabled by decreased nutrient availability under drought conditions. 5. Synthesis and applications. Environmental factors interacted in complex ways| producing changes in biomass distribution and guild proportions in subalpine grassland. In addition| the results suggested that the capability of high-altitude grasslands to provide quality forage in summer time could be threatened in the northern Mediterranean region under climate change conditions because of: (i) a decrease in their reliability as a result of complex biomass interactions with temperature| water and nutrient dynamics; (ii) expected feedback mechanisms; and (iii) compositional shifts. 1552,2007,2,4,Plant water sources in the cold semiarid ecosystem of the upper Kherlen River catchment in Mongolia: A stable isotope approach,In the cold semiarid region of northeastern Mongolia| we used stable isotopes (180 and D) to determine potential plant water sources during the 2003 growing season (June to September) in two habitats: montane forest and an elevation gradient from the forest to Kherten river bank. The forest is dominated by larch (Larix sibirica) with patches of cinquefoil shrubs (Potentilla fruticosa). The latter also grow throughout the elevation gradient| while the Larch grows only on the top slope. Poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) trees grow only on the river bank. All plant and soil samples showed isotopic signatures similar to summer precipitation| which is isotopically heavier in summer than winter. In July and August| [arch trees in the forest tended to shift their water uptake to shallow depths in response to recent rainfall| but during the remaining months (June and September)| depths of water uptake were unclear. Further| both the larch trees and cinquefoil shrubs in the forest used water at similar depths| suggesting potential competition for water. Plants along the elevation gradient showed different patterns of water use: (1) in July| larch used recent rainfall only| but in other months| the pattern was unclear; (2) cinquefoil depended on rainfall from recent weeks (as in August)| but sometimes used antecedent rainwater from one month prior; and (3) poplar and willow seemed to use water from the river (as in August) or from precipitation that felt a few weeks prior (as in September)| but the factors controlling this unusual shift are unknown. This study contributes to our understanding of plant water use strategies in cold semiarid ecosystems| and provides baseline data for models designed to understand large-scale hydrological effects of global climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7948,2007,3,4,Plasma kinetic study of silicon-dioxide removal with fluorocompounds in a plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition chamber,Plasma kinetics of silicon dioxide plasma cleaning is investigated with C2F6 and CF3CF2OCF=CF2 (perfluoroethyl vinyl ether| PEVE) in this work. Perfluorocompounds (PFCs) are widely used in the semiconductor industry| and they are known to have long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming potentials (GWP) due to their chemical stability and large cross sections for infrared radiation absorption. The silicon dioxide (SiO2) cleaning process in a plasmaenhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) chamber is known to be the largest PFC emission source for the semiconductor industry. Silicon-dioxide removal rates by surface reactions in plasmas were measured in the temperature range from room temperature to 400 degrees C by using laser interferometry| and the fluorine density was determined by using an optical emission spectroscopy (OES) actinometry technique. The ion density and the ion energy were determined by using an impedance analysis and an equivalent circuit model. The activation energy was determined from Arrehenius plot to be 0.163 eV and 0.169 eV for C2F6 and PEVE plasmas| respectively| in the PECVD chamber cleaning condition. It is shown here that silicon-dioxide removal rate is linearly proportional to the fluorine concentration for the PECVD chamber cleaning condition of 300 400 degrees C and that the removal rate depends on the ion flux and the ion energy below 100 degrees C. The combined etch rate model is suggested to explain this temperature dependence in this work. From this plasma kinetic study| we can conclude that the atomic fluorine concentration is the dominant factor in silicon-dioxide removal for the PECVD chamber cleaning condition. 1454,2007,2,4,Poleward shifts in winter ranges of North American birds,Climate change is thought to promote the poleward movement of geographic ranges; however| the spatial dynamics| mechanisms| and regional anthropogenic drivers associated with these trends have not been fully explored. We estimated changes in latitude of northern range boundaries| center of occurrence| and center of abundance for 254 species of winter avifauna in North America from 1975 to 2004. After accounting for the effect of range size and the location of the northern boundary| positive latitudinal trends were evident for the northern boundary (1.48 km/yr)| center of occurrence (0.45 km/yr)| and center of abundance (1.03 km/yr). The northern boundary| when examined across individual species| had the most variable trends (SD = 7.46 km/yr) relative to the center of occurrence (SD = 2.36 km/yr) and center of abundance (SD = 5.57 km/yr). Trends did not differ based on migratory status| but there was evidence that trends differed for species with ranges centered in the southern vs. northern portion of the study area. Species occurred more sporadically over time at northern range boundaries| and northern boundaries were associated with a concentration of colonization and extirpation events| with a greater prevalence of colonization events likely promoting poleward trends. Regional anthropogenic drivers explained similar to 8% of the trend for the northern boundary| 14% for the center of occurrence| and 18% for the center of abundance: however| these effects were localized in the northern portion of species' ranges and were associated with distributional changes within ranges| primarily abundance| producing patterns that mimicked poleward movements. We conclude that poleward distributional shifts represent the interaction between climate change and regional factors whose outcome is determined by the scale of the analysis and the biotic and abiotic features in the region| and how anthropogenic activities have impacted these features. 7903,2007,2,4,Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil and surface marine sediment near Jubany Station (Antarctica). Role of permafrost as a low-permeability barrier,Although Antarctica is still considered as one of the most pristine areas of the world| the growing tourist and fisheries activities as well as scientific operations and their related logistic support are responsible for an increasing level of pollutants in this fragile environment. Soils and coastal sediments are significantly affected near scientific stations particularly by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). In this work sediment and soil were sampled in two consecutive summer Antarctic expeditions at Potter Cove and peninsula| in the vicinity of Jubany Station (South Shetland Islands). Two- and 3-ring PAHs (methylnaphthalene| fluorene| phenanthrene and anthracene) were the main compounds found in most sites| although total PAH concentrations showed relatively low levels compared with other human-impacted areas in Antarctica. Pattern distribution of PAHs observed in samples suggested that low-temperature combustion processes such as diesel motor combustion and open-field garbage burning are the main sources of these compounds. An increase in PAH concentrations was observed from surface to depth into the active soil layer except for a unique sampling site where a fuel spill had been recently reported and where an inverted PAH concentration gradient was observed. The highest level was detected in the upper layer of permafrost followed by a sharp decrease in depth| showing this layer is acting as a barrier for downward PAH migration. When PAH levels in soil from both sampling programs were compared a significant decrease (p < 0.01) was observed in summer 2005 (range at 75-cm depth: 12 +/- 1-153 +/- 22 ng/g) compared to summer 2004 (range at 75-cm depth: 162 +/- 15-1182 +/- 113 ng/g) whereas concentrations in surface sediment collected nearby the station PAHs increased drastically in 2005 (range: 36 +/- 3-1908 +/- 114 ng/g) compared to 2004 (range: 28 +/- 3-312 +/- 24 ng/g). Precipitation regime and water run off suggest that an important wash out of soil-PAHs occurred during the interval time between samplings. Results showed that the present PAH contamination level of Jubany Station is relatively low compared to other reported cases in Antarctica but also suggests that an increase in rain and in thawing processes caused by the global warming could result in an important soil-associated PAH mobilization with unpredictable consequences for the biota of Potter Cove. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8247,2007,2,4,Population dynamics and conservation biology of the over-exploited Mediterranean red coral,The main goal of ecologists is nowadays to foster habitat and species conservation. Life-history tables and Leslie-Lewis transition matrices of population growth can be powerful tools suitable for the study of age-structured over harvested and/or endangered species dynamics. Red coral (Corallium rubrum L 1758) is a modular anthozoan endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. This slow growing| long lived species has been harvested since ancient times. In the last decades harvesting pressure increased and the overall Mediterranean yield Moreover| mass mortality (putatively-linked to global warming) recently affected some coastal populations of this species. reduced by (2)/(3). Red coral populations are discrete genetic units| gonochoric| composed by several overlapping generations and provided of a discrete (annual) reproduction. A population of this precious octocoral was studied in detail and its static life table was compiled. In order to simulate the trends overtime of the population under different environmental conditions and fishing pressures| a discrete| non-linear model| based on Leslie-Lewis transition matrix| was applied to the demographic data. In this model a bell-shaped curve| based on experimental data| representing the dependence of recruitment on adult colonies density was included. On these bases the stability of the population under different density| reproduction and mortality figures was analysed and simulations of the population trends overtime were set out. Some simulations were also carried out applying to the studied population the mortality values measured during the anomalous mass mortality event which really affected some red coral populations in 1999. The population under study showed high stability and a strong resilience capability| surviving to a 61% reduction of density| to a 27.7% reduction of reproduction rate and to an unselective harvesting affecting 95% of the reproductive colonies. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1521,2007,2,4,Population trends and spatial synchrony in peripheral populations of the endangered Lesser grey shrike in response to environmental change,Regional synchronization in species dynamics as well as particular ecological and demographic characteristics of peripheral populations poses special challenges for conservation purposes| particularly under the current scenario of global climate change. Here| we study the population trend and spatial synchrony of several peripheral populations of the endangered Lesser grey shrike Lanius minor at the western limit of its breeding range (southern France and northeast Spain). In an attempt to ascertain the effect of environmental change on the decline of the species we also look for evidence of climate changes in the breeding and wintering area of this shrike and related effects on vegetation by using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We found that the interannual fluctuations of the peripheral populations in France and Spain are strongly correlated| therefore suggesting that their decline can be under the influence of a common factor. We obtained clear evidence of climatic change (an increased thermal oscillation) in one peripheral population that could have resulted in a decrease of the NDVI index in the area. Our study finds correlational evidence that climatic variables in the breeding area may account for fluctuations in abundances of some populations and that environmental conditions experimented by some population could influence the fate of the neighboring populations. Our results indicate that the studied peripheral populations are spatially synchronized| so that conservation efforts should be applied at a large-scale encompassing all the isolated populations at the western border of the range of the species in the Mediterranean area. 8134,2007,2,4,Population viability of the narrow endemic Helianthemum juliae (CISTACEAE) in relation to climate variability,Narrow endemic plants are highly vulnerable to extinction as a result of human disturbance and climate change. We investigated the factors affecting the population viability of Helianthemum juliae| a perennial plant endemic to the Teide National Park on Tenerife| Canary Islands. One population was demographically monitored from 1992 to 2001 and analysed using matrix projection models to determine finite rates of increase and critical stages in the life cycle. Lambda values varied between 0.697 and 1.740| and were highly positively correlated with annual precipitation| but not with temperature. Survival of adults had the highest elasticity| and summed elasticities of the growth and fecundity transitions correlated positively with lambda and precipitation. Most of the mortality in the population seemed drought-related| and no other threats were identified. Deterministic simulations showed population increase| but introducing environmental stochasticity by modelling variation in precipitation from existing data of the past 85 years revealed high extinction probabilities (0.74-0.83 in the next 100 years). This plant is likely to be at risk under scenarios of global warming. our simulations suggest that augmenting the population would only delay extinction. A more viable option for long-term conservation seems to be the introduction of populations at more humid locations within the Teide caldera. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7872,2007,3,4,Possibilities to reduce rice straw-induced global warming potential of a sandy paddy soil by combining hydrological manipulations and urea-N fertilizations,Global warming potential (GWP) of sandy paddy soils may be reduced by trade-offs between N2O| CH4 and CO2 emissions. Laboratory experiments using either rice straw (1% or 0.5%) or together with urea-N (25 or 50 mg N kg(-1) soil) at various levels of soil water were carried out for 30 days each| to test this assumption. Waterlogging combined with urea-N increased total N2O emissions| with greater release upon rewaterlogging (7.4 mg N kg(-1) soil) than experienced by removing waterlogging only. Rice straw +/- urea-N either emitted small amounts of N2O or resulted in negative values at all water levels| including saturated and aerobic. Total CH4 fluxes declined with the decreased water levels and amount of rice straw (<193 mg C kg(-1) soil)| and also for CO2 with the latter (<1340 mg C kg(-1) soil)| and rewaterlogging had little influence on both. N2O under rewaterlogged and waterlogged +/- urea-N| CH4 under waterlogged with rice straw| and CO2 for the remainder were the major contributors to GWP. Results show that waterlogging following aerobic decomposition of rice straw (1%) with urea-N| applied either at the beginning or at the end of the aerobic conditions| could decrease GWP by 56-64% and 32-42% over the sole addition of rice straw (1% and 0.5%) under waterlogged and saturated conditions| respectively. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8077,2007,4,4,Post-embryonic developmental plasticity of Arctodiaptomus salinus (Copepoda : Calanoida) at different temperatures,Ephemeral and semi-permanent saline wetlands undergo frequent unpredictable disturbances such as episodes of high salinity or desiccation. Organisms living in these systems are adapted to survive and develop in very fluctuating and upredictable conditions and. therefore| could help us to understand life cycle strategies and plasticity in the context of global warming. Arctodiaptomus salinus is a common species occurring in such environment and is often the main constituent of their zooplankton community| which is characterized by low diversity and short trophic webs. Despite the qualitative and quantitative importance of A. salinus in these systems| no attention has been paid to the effect of temperature on its population dynamics. For this reason| variability in post-embryonic development times and stage-specific mortality of A. salinus were studied for the temperature range over which this species occurs. Mortality was higher in earlier naupliar and first copepodite stages. The highest development variability and mortality occurred at the highest temperature. Developmental instability could explain the high variability at high temperatures and the fluctuating speed of development throughout the successive stages. The interaction between mortality and develoopmental variability might be an important mechanism ensuring persistence of a salinus populations in these fluctuating and stressing environments. 7922,2007,5,4,Post-glacial climatic change on boothia peninsula| nunavut| Canada,A high temporal resolution pollen diagram from a lake in the mid-Arctic region of the Boothia Peninsula| Nunavut| Canada| documents the history of the regional vegetation and climate for the past 7200 yr. Major tundra pollen taxa in the core include Cyperaceae and Salix| with Cyperaceae comprising over 50% of the pollen in the early and late Holocene. Tree pollen| transported from far to the south| comprised a large percentage of the pollen sum| with Pinus accounting for 30% of the pollen in some levels of the core. Pollen percentages and concentrations of taxa typical of the mid-Arctic were highest in the mid-Holocene| corresponding to warm conditions. Decreasing pollen concentrations indicate cooling temperatures| with more rapid decreases occurring around 4200| 3800-3400| and 2500 cal yr BP. Pollen percentages of Salix| Cyperaceae| and Artemisia increased in the past 35 yr in response to global warming. Reconstructions of July temperature using the modem analog technique showed that the mid-Holocene (5800-2800 cal yr BP) was approximately 1 degrees C higher than during the past 1000 yr. (c) 2007 University of Washington. All rights reserved. 1494,2007,2,4,Potential changes in weed competitiveness in an agroecological system with elevated temperatures,Increases in temperature due to global climate changes could significantly impact weed competitiveness and crop-weed interactions. Factors contributing to the responsiveness of a plant species to increasing temperature include the inherent genetic limitations of the species and the ability to acquire water and nutritional resources. The purpose of this study was to examine the temperature responses of selected species from a model agronomic system in the Southeastern U.S.: soybean (Glycine max)| sicklepod (Senna obtusifolia) and prickly sida (Sida spinosa). We also determined temperature effects on mycorrhizal colonization and development of the soybean N-2-fixation system| two below-ground associations critical for resource acquisition. The species were grown at 42/37 (day/night)| 36/31| 32/27| 28/23| or 23/18 degrees C for 30 days in a field soil with naturally low fertility. Growth of the weed species was maximized at a higher temperature than that for soybean| 36/31 degrees C versus 32/27 degrees C| probably reflecting different geographical origins. At the optimal temperature| weeds had higher root:shoot mass ratios (1.3-1.5 versus 0.9) than soybean| and greater mycorrhizal colonization. In soybean| nodule weights| numbers| and total nitrogenase activity were highest at the growth temperature optimum but decreased considerably at higher temperatures. The results collectively indicate that increases in aerial temperatures above similar to 32 degrees C would enhance weed competitiveness. Increased interference with soybean growth and yields should be expected. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8291,2007,3,3,Potential contribution of the forestry sector in Bangladesh to carbon sequestration,The Kyoto Protocol provides for the involvement of developing countries in an atmospheric greenhouse gas reduction regime under its Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Carbon credits are gained from reforestation and afforestation activities in developing countries. Bangladesh| a densely populated tropical country in South Asia| has a huge degraded forestland which can be reforested by CDM projects. To realize the potential of the forestry sector in developing countries for full-scale emission mitigation| the carbon sequestration potential of different species in different types of plantations should be integrated with the carbon trading system under the CDM of the Kyoto Protocol. This paper discusses the prospects and problems of carbon trading in Bangladesh| in relation to the CDM| in the context of global warming and the potential associated consequences. The paper analyzes the effects of reforestation projects on carbon sequestration in Bangladesh| in general| and in the hilly Chittagong region| in particular| and concludes by demonstrating the carbon trading opportunities. Results showed that tree tissue in the forests of Bangladesh stored 92 tons of carbon per hectare (tC/ha)| on average. The results also revealed a gross stock of 190 tC/ha in the plantations of 13 tree species| ranging in age from 6 to 23 years. The paper confirms the huge atmospheric CO2 offset by the forests if the degraded forestlands are reforested by CDM projects| indicating the potential of Bangladesh to participate in carbon trading for both its economic and environmental benefit. Within the forestry sector itself| some constraints are identified; nevertheless| the results of the study can expedite policy decisions regarding Bangladesh's participation in carbon trading through the CDM. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8141,2007,2,4,Potential effects of climate change on elevational distributions of tropical birds in Southeast Asia,An analysis of the elevational distributions of Southeast Asian birds over a 28-year period provides evidence for a potential upward shift for 94 common resident species. These species might have shifted their lower| upper| or both lower and upper boundaries toward a higher elevation in response to climate warming. These upward shifts occurred regardless of habitat specificity| further implicating climate warming| in addition to habitat loss| as a potentially important factor affecting the already imperiled biotas of Southeast Asia. 8035,2007,2,2,Potential effects of interaction between CO(2) and temperature on forest landscape response to global warming,Projected temperature increases under global warming could benefit southern tree species by providing them the optimal growing temperature and could be detrimental to northern species by exposing them to the supra optimal growing temperatures. This benefit-detriment trade-off could increase the competitive advantage of southern species in the northern species range and cause the increase or even dominance of southern species in the northern domain. However| the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of C3 plants may increase due to CO(2) enrichment. An increase in the optimum temperature could greatly reduce the benefit-detriment effect. In this study| we coupled a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II) and a forest GAP model (LINKAGES) with a spatially dynamic forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to study how an optimum temperature increase could affect forest landscape response due to global warming. We simulated 360 years of forest landscape change in the Boundary Water Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota| which is transitional between boreal and temperate forest. Our results showed that| under the control scenario of continuing the historic 1984-1993 mean climate (mainly temperature| precipitation and CO(2))| the BWCA will become a spruce-fir dominated boreal forest. However| under the scenario of predicted climatic change [the 2000-2099 climates are predicted by Canadian Climate Center (CCC)| followed by 200 years of continuing the predicted 2090-2099 mean climate]| the BWCA will become a pine-dominated mixed forest. If the optimum temperature increases gradually with [CO(2)] (the increase in optimum temperature is assumed to change gradually from O degrees C in year 2000 to 5 degrees C in year 2099 when [CO(2)] reaches 711ppm and stabilizes at 5 degrees C after year 2099)| the BWCA would remain a fir-dominated boreal forest in areas with relatively high water-holding capacity| but not in areas with relatively low water-holding capacity. Our results suggest that the [CO(2)] induced increases in optimum temperature could substantially reduce forest landscape change caused by global warming. However| not all tree species would be able to successfully adapt to future warming as predicted by CCC| regardless of optimum temperature acclimations. 1427,2007,2,2,Predicting the impacts of future sea-level rise on an endangered Lagomorph,Human-induced global climate change presents a unique and difficult challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. Despite increasing attention on global climate change| few studies have assessed the projected impacts of sea-level rise to threatened and endangered species. Therefore| we estimated the impacts of rising sea levels on the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) across its geographic distribution under scenarios of current conditions| low (0.3-m)| medium (0.6m)| and high (0.9-m) sea-level rise. We also investigated the impacts of allowing vegetation to migrate upslope and not allowing migration and of two land-use planning decisions (protection and abandonment of human-dominated areas). Not surprisingly| under all simulations we found a general trend of decreasing total potential LKMR habitat with increasing sea-level rise. Not allowing migration and protecting human-dominated areas both tended to decrease potential LKMR habitat compared with allowing migration and abandoning human-dominated areas. In conclusion| conservation strategies at multiple scales need to be implemented in order to reduce the impact of global climate change on biodiversity and endangered species. At the regional level| managers must consider land-use planning needs that take into account the needs of both humans and biodiversity. Finally| at the local scale those agencies that are in charge of endangered species conservation and ecosystem management need to rethink static approaches to conservation or else stand by and watch ecosystems degrade and species go extinct. This can be accomplished by bioclimatic reserve systems where climatically underrepresented areas are included in conservation planning along with the standard concerns of threat| opportunity| connectivity| and viability. 7961,2007,4,4,Prediction of radiative forcing values for hydrofluoroethers using density functional theory methods,[1] In this work| we use computational chemistry at the B3LYP/ 6 - 31g* level of theory combined with Pinnock's cloudy sky instantaneous radiative transfer model to predict radiative forcing for hydrofluoroether compounds. We validate our predictive ability using the 27 values of cloudy sky radiative forcing reported in the literature before populating a database of 25 other hydrofluoroethers where no radiative forcing data is available. These additional compounds were selected because kinetic data are available for them and one could predict global warming potentials using the work reported here. 7913,2007,2,3,Present-day springtime high-latitude surface albedo as a predictor of simulated climate sensitivity,Simulations by the Community Atmosphere Model ( CAM) and 15 other climate models suggest that climate sensitivity is linked to continental middle to high latitude present-day springtime albedo. We compare 1 x CO2 and 2 x CO2 CAM simulations against similar simulations with snow cover fraction purposely increased. Greater snow cover fraction leads to higher albedo and lower temperatures at 1 x CO2 but has less influence at 2 x CO2 when little snow remains due to global warming. This makes the simulation with higher albedo at 1 x CO2 more sensitive to increased CO2| in agreement with past work. We show that the wide variation in simulated snow-albedo feedbacks and climate sensitivities among 15 other models correlates well with variations in the continental middle to high latitude present-day springtime albedo| in agreement with our CAM results. The development of more accurate snow and albedo parameterizations should improve model estimates of climate sensitivity. 1433,2007,4,4,Probabilistic climate change predictions applying Bayesian model averaging,This study explores the sensitivity of probabilistic predictions of the twenty-first century surface air temperature ( SAT) changes to different multi-model averaging methods using available simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report. A way of observationally constrained prediction is provided by training multi-model simulations for the second half of the twentieth century with respect to long-term components. The Bayesian model averaging ( BMA) produces weighted probability density functions (PDFs) and we compare two methods of estimating weighting factors: Bayes factor and expectation maximization algorithm. It is shown that Bayesian-weighted PDFs for the global mean SAT changes are characterized by multi-modal structures from the middle of the twenty-first century onward| which are not clearly seen in arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM). This occurs because BMA tends to select a few high-skilled models and down-weight the others. Additionally| Bayesian results exhibit larger means and broader PDFs in the global mean predictions than the unweighted AEM. Multi-modality is more pronounced in the continental analysis using 30-year mean (2070-2099) SATs while there is only a little effect of Bayesian weighting on the 5-95% range. These results indicate that this approach to observationally constrained probabilistic predictions can be highly sensitive to the method of training| particularly for the later half of the twenty-first century| and that a more comprehensive approach combining different regions and/or variables is required. 7911,2007,3,4,Production and transport chemistry of atomic fluorine in remote plasma source and cylindrical reaction chamber,Increasingly| NF3-based plasmas are being used in semiconductor manufacturing to clean chemical vapour deposition ( CVD) chambers. With advantages such as faster clean times| substantially lower emissions of gases having high global warming potentials| and reduced chamber damage| NF3 plasmas are now favoured over fluorocarbon-based processes. Typically| a remote plasma source (RPS) is used to dissociate the NF3 gas and produce atomic fluorine that etches the CVD residues from the chamber surfaces. However| it is important to efficiently transport F atoms from the plasma source into the process chamber. The current work is aimed at understanding and improving the key processes involved in the production and transport of atomic fluorine atoms. A zero-dimensional model of NF3 dissociation and F production chemistry in the RPS is developed based on various known and derived plasma parameters. Additionally| a model describing the transport of atomic fluorine is proposed that includes both physical ( diffusion| adsorption and desorption) and chemical processes ( surface and three-body volume recombination). The kinetic model provides an understanding of the impact of chamber geometry| gas flow rates| pressure and temperature on fluorine recombination. The plasma-kinetic model is validated by comparing model predictions ( percentage F atom density) with experimental results ( etch rates). 8050,2007,3,4,Production of dimethylfuran for liquid fuels from biomass-derived carbohydrates,Diminishing fossil fuel reserves and growing concerns about global warming indicate that sustainable sources of energy are needed in the near future. For fuels to be useful in the transportation sector| they must have specific physical properties that allow for efficient distribution| storage and combustion; these properties are currently fulfilled by non-renewable petroleum-derived liquid fuels. Ethanol| the only renewable liquid fuel currently produced in large quantities| suffers from several limitations| including low energy density| high volatility| and contamination by the absorption of water from the atmosphere. Here we present a catalytic strategy for the production of 2|5-dimethylfuran from fructose ( a carbohydrate obtained directly from biomass or by the isomerization of glucose) for use as a liquid transportation fuel. Compared to ethanol| 2|5-dimethylfuran has a higher energy density ( by 40 per cent)| a higher boiling point ( by 20 K)| and is not soluble in water. This catalytic strategy creates a route for transforming abundant renewable biomass resources(1|2) into a liquid fuel suitable for the transportation sector| and may diminish our reliance on petroleum. 7926,2007,3,4,Production| economic and environmental benefits of leucaena pastures,The rate of adoption of leucaena (Leucaena leucocephala)-grass pastures is rising rapidly in northern Australia as graziers realise the extent of the triple-bottom-line benefits. Leucaena pastures are suited to >13 M ha of Queensland| with a current estimated 150 000 ha producing 37 500 kg of liveweight gain valued at >$69 M each year. Despite high costs of establishment| this area is expected to expand to 300 000-500 000 ha by 2017. The main factor driving high levels of adoption is the ability of leucaena pastures to meet graziers' needs for a highly productive and profitable system that meets market requirements for grass-fed beef of superior quality. Production benefits include: increased animal production/ ha (up to 4-fold) resulting from a combination of greater animal liveweight gains and increased carrying capacity; longevity (30-40 yr); and potential to intensify production within the constraints of recent changes to the Queensland Vegetation Management Act and escalating land prices. Other benefits are: increased marketing flexibility; superior capital appreciation of leucaena pastures| and positive animal welfare outcomes. Social factors are also important| with many farmers converting marginal dryland cropping cultivation to leucaena pasture owing to concerns about the impact of drought| global warming| and decreased profitability and sustainability of dryland farming. Importantly| technical information regarding the establishment and management of leucaena pastures is now available to graziers| giving them the confidence to adopt the technology. Environmental benefits include: dryland salinity mitigation; soil erosion control and improved water quality; improved soil fertility through biological nitrogen fixation; and greenhouse gas mitigation. Given an average season| existing leucaena pastures fix approximately 7500 t N and reduce cattle methane emissions by approximately 91 000 t carbon dioxide equivalent carbon (C0(2)-e) annually. These pastures also have the potential to sequester >4 M t of CO2-e. However| leucaena is an environmental weed in northern Australia| largely as a result of its historical introduction and use as an ornamental and for slope stabilisation. While most current weed infestations are not due to grazier plantings| a voluntary Code of Practice| where graziers take responsibility for any spread from their properties| has been developed to limit seed production and dispersal. Soil acidification will not be a problem on the alkaline clay soils (high pH buffering capacity) in Queensland where most leucaena pastures are planted. There is need for greater factual appreciation of the environmental aspects of large-scale leucaena plantings| and for a thorough cost:benefit analysis to be conducted. 7947,2007,2,3,Projected changes in precipitation and the occurrence of severe rainfall deficits in central Australia caused by global warming,Using an ensemble of 62 simulations with the NCAR CSM 1.4 climate model we have investigated the effect of global warming on rainfall and the occurrence of severe rainfall deficits in central Australia| which receives most of its rain during summer and autumn. For a 'business-as-usual' scenario| results indicate that for the period 2051-2080 compared to the period 1951-1980 there will be a decrease of rainfall in central Australia of about 10 to 20 per cent. In addition| the probability of extreme rainfall deficits is increased. This increase is largest in autumn. In summer| changes in atmospheric circulation| resulting in a more southerly flow advecting dry air into central Australia| appear to be the dominant mechanism for the reduction in rainfall and increase in severe rainfall deficits. The increase in occurrences of southerly flow is caused by the development of a heat low over Australia in response to global warming. In autumn| the reduction in rainfall is due to soil drying. During this season the probability of severe rainfall deficits is significantly enhanced due to the reduction of soil moisture caused by the decrease in rainfall and enhanced evaporation in the preceding summer. 7951,2007,2,3,Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide,In addition to influencing climatic conditions directly through radiative forcing| increasing carbon dioxide concentration influences the climate system through its effects on plant physiology(1). Plant stomata generally open less widely under increased carbon dioxide concentration(2)| which reduces transpiration(1|3-6) and thus leaves more water at the land surface(7). This driver of change in the climate system| which we term 'physiological forcing'| has been detected in observational records of increasing average continental runoff over the twentieth century(8). Here we use an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model that includes a vegetation component to assess the contribution of physiological forcing to future changes in continental runoff| in the context of uncertainties in future precipitation. We find that the physiological effect of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations on plant transpiration increases simulated global mean runoff by 6 per cent relative to pre-industrial levels; an increase that is comparable to that simulated in response to radiatively forced climate change (11 +/- 6 per cent). Assessments of the effect of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations on the hydrological cycle that only consider radiative forcing(9-11) will therefore tend to underestimate future increases in runoff and overestimate decreases. This suggests that freshwater resources may be less limited than previously assumed under scenarios of future global warming| although there is still an increased risk of drought. Moreover| our results highlight that the practice of assessing the climate-forcing potential of all greenhouse gases in terms of their radiative forcing potential relative to carbon dioxide does not accurately reflect the relative effects of different greenhouse gases on freshwater resources. 7929,2007,2,2,Projected sea level rise in Florida,Future sea level rise will lead to salt water intrusion| beach/dune recession| and many other coastal problems. This paper addresses a data based forecasting approach to provide relative sea level rise estimates at locations in Florida where historical water level data exist. Many past estimates of sea level rise have treated the rise as a linear straight line trend over the historical data set. The present paper has allowed for acceleration (or deceleration) in sea level rise to account for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming and consequent higher (than linear straight line) future sea levels similar to values noted by global climatic modelers. Results of the present analysis show sea level rise for Florida being higher than past straight line trend results. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8279,2007,2,4,Projection of global warming onto regional precipitation over Mongolia using a regional climate model,Climate change due to global warming is of concern to the public and may cause significant changes in the hydrological regimes in arid/semi-arid areas including Mongolia| which locates at a boundary between and and humid regions. However| general circulation models (GCMs) are not sufficient to evaluate climate change on a regional-scale. In this study| two kinds of dynamical downscaling (DDS)| referred to as method-G and method-R| using a regional climate model (RCM) are applied to investigate the rainfall change over Mongolia in July due to the global warming. Method-G is a traditional DDS method in which an RCM is directly nested within a GCM| while method-R is newly suggested in this study and aims to improve the reproductivity of a regional climate. For current climate simulation| method-R uses reanalysis data as a boundary forcing of the RCM while a specialty created boundary condition| in which projected changes of meteorological variables in a GCM simulation are added on reanalysis data| is used for global warming simulation. Compared with in situ observations| the rainfall amount for July is very well reproduced by the RCM| even in a smatter area of four subregions in Mongolia. Rainfall intensity by method-R is very close to actual observations; on the other hand| method-G fails to simulate heavy rainfall events stronger than 16 mm day(-1). The two DDS methods show similar results with respect to the changes of precipitation in July due to the global warming| which are that precipitation decreases over northern and increases over southern Mongolia. In method-R| a decrease of precipitation of middle to heavy rainfall intensity| stronger than 4 mm day'| contributes largely to the decreased July precipitation in northern Mongolia. Soil moisture over Mongolia also tends to decrease in July because of the combined effect caused by the decrease of precipitation and the increase of potential evaporation due to rising air temperature. This situation indicates that severe droughts may occur more frequently from the effects of global warming. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8107,2007,2,4,Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan - An econometric analysis,We assess potential future impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Swat and Chitral districts of Pakistan| mountainous areas with average altitudes of 960 and 1500 rn above sea level| respectively. Using past climate data (1976-2000) to track temperature trends in both study districts| we find that increased temperatures correspond to an increase in Growing Degree Days (GDDs) and a decrease in Growing Season Length (GSL). Chitral district. shows a stronger decline in season length than Swat district. Compared with the estimated optimum level of 157 days| the 25 year average GSL for the dominant varieties is estimated to be 156 days in Swat district and 195 days in Chitral district. Future increases in temperature of 1.5 and 3 degrees C are likely to cause wheat yields to decline (by 7% and 24%| respectively) in Swat district and increase (by 14% and 23%| respectively) in Chitral district. Future increases in precipitation of 5-15% during the growing season show a negligible impact on wheat yield. Development and dissemination of short duration varieties| which can withstand the climatic anomalies expected in the future| should be given priority in the mountain region. More recent High Yielding Varieties (HYV) of the warmer plain areas should also be tested and introduced in the mountain areas because the expected future increases in temperatures caused by global warming would render these varieties suitable for the mountain areas. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7855,2007,2,4,Proteins responding to drought and high-temperature stress in Pinus armandii Franch,Proteomic analysis provides a powerful method for studying plant responses to stress at the protein level. To study stress-responsive molecular mechanisms for Pinus armandii Franch| one of the most important forest plantation tree species in subalpine regions of Asia| we analyzed the response of 2-year-old P. armandii seedlings to drought and high temperature using two-dimensional gel electrophoresis. More than 550 reproducible needle proteins were detected in the controls and treatments| and the abundance of 27 proteins were found to change noticeably. We identified five proteins affected by drought stress and eight proteins affected by high temperature. These proteins are functionally quite diverse and are involved in photosynthesis| cell division and elongation| antioxidant metabolism| ammonia assimilation| growth and development| and protein folding. Our results provide fundamental data for future research on responses to drought and high temperature. As drought and high temperature are two major factors limiting the growth of subalpine forests during summer under recent global warming| this research may contribute to an understanding of the development of stress tolerance in trees. 8180,2007,3,3,Public perceptions on the acceptance of geological storage of carbon dioxide and information influencing the acceptance,Public acceptance will be important for the implementation of the geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO2). The purpose of this study is to evaluate how the general public perceives this storage and the factors crucial for its acceptance. Further| this study attempts to analyze and evaluate what kind of information would influence the public acceptance and how. In order to evaluate them| questionnaire surveys concerning the acceptance of CO2 geological storage were conducted among Japanese university students. The questionnaire was designed under the assumption that there were five important factors with regard to the acceptance: risk perception| benefit perception| trust| and two perceptions relating to human interference with the environment (one each for CO2 geological storage and global warming). The questionnaire also investigated the effects of two kinds of information supplied: on natural analogues and on field demonstrations Of CO2 storage. The responses were analyzed through confirmatory factor analysis| and the dynamic changes in the perceptions resulting from the supplied information were analyzed. The analysis results include the following: the five factors explained the acceptance very well (> 83%)| the benefit perception was primarily important for determining public acceptance| and information on the natural analogues decreased the risk perception greatly. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1408,2007,2,4,Putting beta-diversity on the map: Broad-scale congruence and coincidence in the extremes,Beta-diversity| the change in species composition between places| is a critical but poorly understood component of biological diversity. Patterns of beta-diversity provide information central to many ecological and evolutionary questions| as well as to conservation planning. Yet beta-diversity is rarely studied across large extents| and the degree of similarity of patterns among taxa at such scales remains untested. To our knowledge| this is the first broad-scale analysis of cross-taxon congruence in beta-diversity| and introduces a new method to map beta-diversity continuously across regions. Congruence between amphibian| bird| and mammal beta-diversity in the Western Hemisphere varies with both geographic location and spatial extent. We demonstrate that areas of high beta-diversity for the three taxa largely coincide| but areas of low beta-diversity exhibit little overlap. These findings suggest that similar processes lead to high levels of differentiation in amphibian| bird| and mammal assemblages| while the ecological and biogeographic factors influencing homogeneity in vertebrate assemblages vary. Knowledge of beta-diversity congruence can help formulate hypotheses about the mechanisms governing regional diversity patterns and should inform conservation| especially as threat from global climate change increases. 1450,2007,2,2,Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Scientific basis and modeling approach,Global climate change is one of the most important issues of contemporary environmental safety. A scientific consensus is forming that the emissions of greenhouse gases| including carbon dioxide| nitrous oxide and methane| from anthropogenic activities may play a key role in elevating the global temperatures. Quantifying soil greenhouse gas emissions is an essential task for understanding the atmospheric impacts of anthropogenic activities in terrestrial ecosystems. In most soils| production or consumption of the three major greenhouse gases is regulated by interactions among soil redox potential| carbon source and electron acceptors. Two classical formulas| the Nernst equation and the Michaelis-Menten equation| describe the microorganism-mediated redox reactions from aspects of thermodynamics and reaction kinetics| respectively. The two equations are functions of a series of environmental factors (e.g. temperature| moisture| pH| Eh) that are regulated by a few ecological drivers| such as climate| soil properties| vegetation and anthropogenic activity. Given the complexity of greenhouse gas production in soils| process-based models are required to interpret| integrate and predict the intricate relationships among the gas emissions| the environmental factors and the ecological drivers. This paper reviews the scientific basis underlying the modeling of greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial soils. A case study is reported to demonstrate how a biogeochernical model can be used to predict the impacts of alternative management practices on greenhouse gas emissions from rice paddies. 7878,2007,2,3,Quantifying the AMOC feedbacks during a 2xCO(2) stabilization experiment with land-ice melting,The response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is analyzed using the IPSL-CM4 coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Two simulations are integrated for 70 years with 1%/year increase in CO2 concentration until 2xCO(2)| and are then stabilized for further 430 years. The first simulation takes land-ice melting into account| via a simple parameterization| which results in a strong freshwater input of about 0.13 Sv at high latitudes in a warmer climate. During this scenario| the AMOC shuts down. A second simulation does not include this land-ice melting and herein| the AMOC recovers after 200 years. This behavior shows that this model is close to an AMOC shutdown threshold under global warming conditions| due to continuous input of land-ice melting. The analysis of the origin of density changes in the Northern Hemisphere convection sites allows an identification as to the origin of the changes in the AMOC. The processes that decrease the AMOC are the reduction of surface cooling due to the reduction in the air-sea temperature gradient as the atmosphere warms and the local freshening of convection sites that results from the increase in local freshwater forcing. Two processes also control the recovery of the AMOC: the northward advection of positive salinity anomalies from the tropics and the decrease in sea-ice transport through the Fram Strait toward the convection sites. The quantification of the AMOC related feedbacks shows that the salinity related processes contribute to a strong positive feedback| while feedback related to temperature processes is negative but remains small as there is a compensation between heat transport and surface heat flux in ocean-atmosphere coupled model. We conclude that in our model| AMOC feedbacks amplify land-ice melting perturbation by 2.5. 8011,2007,4,4,Quantitation of endorhizal fungi in high Arctic tundra ecosystems through space and time: The value of herbarium archives,Mycorrhizal fungi are widespread in temperate and tropical regions| but generally are thought to be relatively depauperate at high latitudes. The potential impact of global warming on the polar ecosystems has renewed interest in research into tundra soil microbiota. Although logistical impediments limit field access| herbarium accessions are a potential resource for surveying mycorrhizal distribution. We present: (i) a method for examining fungi in roots of herbarium specimens that provides morphological preservation comparable to formalin fixation; and (ii) a multiple quantitation method to assess diverse morphotypes. Arbuscular mycorrhizae| fine endophytes| and septate endophytes were widespread in Asteraceae roots from Axel Heiberg and Ellesmere islands| Arctic Canada| during 2004. Roots from the same species collected from this region since 1982| stored in our herbarium| consistently contained abundant endorhizal fungi. Although 2004 was one of the coolest growing seasons in the survey| mycorrhizal abundance was highest in that year. Endorhizal fungi are likely to be important for plant survival and soil-forming processes in High Arctic tundra environments| and may be sensitive to climate variation. 8213,2007,2,4,Ra-226 evidence for the ecosystem shift over the past 40 years in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre,Surface seawater was collected for Ra-226 measurement in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre from July to October| 1999 and October to December| 2003. Combined with the historical data reported for this sea area| a declined trend of surface Ra-226 concentrations was observed since 1960s| indicating the ecosystem shift in response to global warming. On one side| the enhanced stratification of the upper water column resulting from global warming reduced the Ra-226 input from the depth| on the other| the temporal increase of biological production resulting from the climate-related ecosystem structure change strengthened the Ra-226 removal from the surface ocean. Both the physical and biological processes resulted in the decrease of surface Ra-226 concentrations in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. The temporal trend of surface Ra-226 concentrations was consistent with the trends of chlorophyll a| silicate| phosphate and primary production previously reported. This study provided Ra-226 evidence for the ecosystem shift under global change. 8175,2007,5,4,Radiation and speciation of pelagic organisms during periods of global warming: the case of the common minke whale| Balaenoptera acutorostrata,How do populations of highly mobile species inhabiting open environments become reproductively isolated and evolve into new species? We test the hypothesis that elevated ocean-surface temperatures can facilitate allopatry among pelagic populations and thus promote speciation. Oceanographic modelling has shown that increasing surface temperatures cause localization and reduction of upwelling| leading to fragmentation of feeding areas critical to pelagic species. We test our hypothesis by genetic analyses of populations of two closely related baleen whales| the Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) and common minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) whose current distributions and migration patterns extent are largely determined by areas of consistent upwelling with high primary production. Phylogeographic and population genetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA control-region nucleotide sequences collected from 467 whales sampled in four different ocean basins were employed to infer the evolutionary relationship among populations of B. acutorostrata by rooting an intraspecific phylogeny with a population of B. bonaerensis. Our findings suggest that the two species diverged in the Southern Hemisphere less than 5 million years ago (Ma). This estimate places the speciation event during a period of extended global warming in the Pliocene. We propose that elevated ocean temperatures in the period facilitated allopatric speciation by disrupting the continuous belt of upwelling maintained by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Our analyses revealed that the current populations of B. acutorostrata likely diverged after the Pliocene some 1.5 Ma when global temperatures had decreased and presumably coinciding with the re-establishment of the polar-equatorial temperature gradient that ultimately drives upwelling. In most population samples| we detected genetic signatures of exponential population expansions| consistent with the notion of increasing carrying capacity after the Pliocene. Our hypothesis that prolonged periods of global warming facilitate speciation in pelagic marine species that depend on upwelling should be tested by comparative analyses in other pelagic species. 8288,2007,4,4,Radiative forcing due to stratospheric water vapour from CH(4) oxidation,Here we report on estimates of the changes in stratospheric water vapour ( SWV) due to methane oxidation based on observational data. Above the tropopause oxidation of methane results in a decrease in its mixing ratio with altitude and this is a major source for SWV. The vertical profile of SWV changes from methane oxidation is presented here using satellite observations of the vertical profile of methane. Trends in the SWV are shown to be small in the lower stratosphere| but can reach 0.7 ppbv at 30 km at high latitudes over the period 1950-2000. The radiative forcing for this indirect effect of methane increase over the industrial era is estimated to be slightly weaker than 0.1 Wm(-2) which implies a larger contribution of water vapour to the methane global warming potential than used in recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments. Our estimate considers only chemical changes and not SWV of dynamical causes. Importantly| we find substantial differences in the temperature change in the stratosphere for a homogeneous change in SWV and SWV change from methane oxidation. This has implications for trend analysis of SWV and understanding and attribution of the stratospheric temperature trend. 8249,2007,2,3,Rapid 20th-century increase in coastal upwelling off northwest Africa,Near-shore waters along the northwest African margin are characterized by coastal upwelling and represent one of the world's major upwelling regions. Sea surface temperature (SST) records from Moroccan sediment cores| extending back 2500 years| reveal anomalous and unprecedented cooling during the 20th century| which is consistent with increased upwelling. Upwelling-driven SSTs also vary out of phase with millennial-scale changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies (NHTAs) and show relatively warm conditions during the Little Ice Age and relatively cool conditions during the Medieval Warm Period. Together| these results suggest that coastal upwelling varies with NHTAs and that upwelling off northwest Africa may continue to intensify as global warming and atmospheric CO(2) levels increase. 7735,2007,5,4,Rapid diversification and dispersal during periods of global warming by plethodontid salamanders,A phylogeny and timescale derived from analyses of multilocus nuclear DNA sequences for Holarctic genera of plethodontid salamanders reveal them to be an old radiation whose common ancestor diverged from sister taxa in the late Jurassic and underwent rapid diversification during the late Cretaceous. A North American origin of plethodontids was followed by a continental-wide diversification| not necessarily centered only in the Appalachian region. The colonization of Eurasia by plethodontids most likely occurred once| by dispersal during the late Cretaceous. Subsequent diversification in Asia led to the origin of Hydromantes and Karsenia| with the former then dispersing both to Europe and back to North America. Salamanders underwent rapid episodes of diversification and dispersal that coincided with major global warming events during the late Cretaceous and again during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal optimum. The major clades of plethodontids were established during these episodes| contemporaneously with similar phenomena in angiosperms| arthropods| birds| and mammals. Periods of global warming may have promoted diversification and both inter- and transcontinental dispersal in northern hemisphere salamanders by making available terrain that shortened dispersal routes and offered new opportunities for adaptive and vicariant evolution. 1555,2007,2,4,Rapid evolution of flowering time by an annual plant in response to a climate fluctuation,Ongoing climate change has affected the ecological dynamics of many species and is expected to impose natural selection on ecologically important traits. Droughts and other anticipated changes in precipitation may be particularly potent selective factors| especially in and regions. Here we demonstrate the evolutionary response of an annual plant| Brassica rapa| to a recent climate fluctuation resulting in a multiyear drought. Ancestral (predrought) genotypes were recovered from stored seed and raised under a set of common environments with descendant (postdrought) genotypes and with ancestor x descendant hybrids. As predicted| the abbreviated growing seasons caused by drought led to the evolution of earlier onset of flowering. Descendants bloomed earlier than ancestors| advancing first flowering by 1.9 days in one study population and 8.6 days in another. The intermediate flowering time of ancestor x descendant hybrids supports an additive genetic basis for divergence. Experiments confirmed that summer drought selected for early flowering| that flowering time was heritable| and that selection intensities in the field were more than sufficient to account for the observed evolutionary change. Natural selection for drought escape thus appears to have caused adaptive evolution in just a few generations. A systematic effort to collect and store propagules from suitable species would provide biologists with materials to detect and elucidate the genetic basis of further evolutionary shifts driven by climate change. 8327,2007,4,4,Rapid shifts in a marine fish assemblage follow fluctuations in winter sea conditions,Patterns of interannual variation are described for an inshore fish assemblage off the Arrabida rocky coast (Portugal). During an 11 yr period| the fish assemblage showed pronounced changes especially within its tropical| warm-temperate and cold-temperate elements. These changes followed a fluctuating pattern connected with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with a series of years where the modifications were slight| interspersed with years where faunal changes were very rapid| affecting up to 35% of the total number of species recorded in those years. After a transition year from it cold to a warm period or vice versa| the majority of the newcomers from the preceding phase were eliminated. Winter conditions| but not summer conditions| were good predictors of the observed patterns. Increases in sea surface temperature (SST) were associated with increases in the proportions of tropical and warm-temperate fish and with decreases in the proportion of cold-temperate elements| the reverse being true for decreases in SST. Interannual variation in faunal composition was not simply a consequence of changes in SST. Changes in other factors such as current flow direction and transport mechanisms| capable of bringing fishes from different biogeographical sources| may also play a role in the observed patterns. The influence of the NAO is therefore not only mediated by its effects on SST but also by the changes it induces in wind and current patterns along the Portuguese shore. Long-term trends caused by persistent changes| like those involving global warming| may be masked by the fact that at an intermediate time scale| faunal changes are characterised by a succession of oscillations rather than by a steady modification in a single direction. This outlines the importance of long-term monitoring data| since short-term studies may only capture single phases of a complex oscillation| giving a false picture of the overall pattern of change. 7934,2007,5,4,Rapid tree growth with respect to the last 400 years in response to climate warming| northeastern Tibetan Plateau,Although global warming over the past century has been confirmed| the response of different regions to it is still uncertain. We developed a tree-ring width chronology based on tree-ring samples from juniper trees from the Xiqing Mountains in the northeast Tibetan Plateau| the central headwater area of the Yellow River. Using this tree-ring chronology| the minimum winter half-year (October-April) temperature for the research area was reconstructed for the past 425 years. The reconstruction shows that temperature variability was minimal over past four centuries prior to the warming that began in 1941. During the 50 years from 1941 to 1990| the minimum temperature of the winter half-year increased 2.5 degrees C. This degree of warming relative to the past 400 years suggests that the eastern Tibetan Plateau is highly sensitive to global warming. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society. 7935,2007,2,4,Real-time PCR reveals a high incidence of Symbiodinium clade D at low levels in four scleractinian corals across the Great Barrier Reef: implications for symbiont shuffling,Reef corals form associations with an array of genetically and physiologically distinct endosymbionts from the genus Symbiodinium. Some corals harbor different clades of symbionts simultaneously| and over time the relative abundances of these clades may change through a process called symbiont shuffling. It is hypothesized that this process provides a mechanism for corals to respond to environmental threats such as global warming. However| only a minority of coral species have been found to harbor more than one symbiont clade simultaneously and the current view is that the potential for symbiont shuffling is limited. Using a newly developed real-time PCR assay| this paper demonstrates that previous studies have underestimated the presence of background symbionts because of the low sensitivity of the techniques used. The assay used here targets the multi-copy rDNA ITS1 region and is able to detect Symbiodinium clades C and D with > 100-fold higher sensitivity compared to conventional techniques. Technical considerations relating to intragenomic variation| estimating copy number and non-symbiotic contamination are discussed. Eighty-two colonies from four common scleractinian species (Acropora millepora| Acropora tenuis| Stylophora pistillata and Turbinaria reniformis) and 11 locations on the Great Barrier Reef were tested for background Symbiodinium clades. Although these colonies had been previously identified as harboring only a single clade based on SSCP analyses| background clades were detected in 78% of the samples| indicating that the potential for symbiont shuffling may be much larger than currently thought. 7808,2007,3,4,Recent activities and trends in the uranium market,Concerns about the impact of hydrocarbon use on climate and global warming are significantly growing. Furthermore| we are all well aware that security of supply is increasingly an issue. In this context| it is now principally recognised that nuclear energy has to be back on the agenda. All in all| the prospects for the nuclear power industry and thus for the uranium activities is very positive for the coming years. The changes that have taken place in the international uranium market during the past several years are remarkable. Since 2002| the uranium prices have increased more than tenfold. The spot market price of uranium began an increase from about USD 9/lb U3O8 in mid 2001 following a fire at the Olympic Dam mill (Australia) in October 2001 and was propelled in subsequent years by a series of interrupting events| such as the mine shaft flooding at the McArthur River mine (Canada) in April 2003| the threat of the early shutdown of the Rossing mine (Namibia) and the Ranger mine (Australia) in 2003| the decision of Techsnabexport (Tenex| Russia) in October 2003 to terminate sales of UF6 to the US trading company Globe Nuclear Services and Supply GNSS Ltd. (GNSS)| and finally the complete flooding at the developing Cigar Lake mine (Canada) in October 2006. With the emergence of hedge funds and investors| that began in late 2004| increased uranium demand and upward pressure on market prices were further stimulated. What about the recent events and trends in the uranium industry? Are the uranium producers and the utilities well prepared to meet all the challenges associated with developments in the uranium business? And what about the risks| uncertainties and other factors that could affect the developments in the uranium industry and uranium markets?. 8257,2007,2,3,Recent and future climate change in northwest china,As a consequence of global warming and an enhanced water cycle| the climate changed in northwest China| most notably in the Xinjiang area in the year 1987. Precipitation| glacial melt water and river runoff and air temperature increased continuously during the last decades| as did also the water level of inland lakes and the frequency of flood disasters. As a result| the vegetation cover is improved| number of days with sand-dust storms reduced. From the end of the 19th century to the 1970s| the climate was warm and dry| and then changed to warm and wet. The effects on northwest China can be classified into three classes by using the relation between precipitation and evaporation increase. If precipitation increases more than evaporation| runoff increases and lake water levels rise. We identify regions with: (1) notable change| (2) slight change and (3) no change. The future climate for doubled CO2 concentration is simulated in a nested approach with the regional climate model-RegCM2. The annual temperature will increase by 2.7 degrees C and annual precipitation by 25%. The cooling effect of aerosols and natural factors will reduce this increase to 2.0 degrees C and 19% of precipitation. As a consequence| annual runoff may increase by more than 10%. 8238,2007,2,4,Recent California climate variability: spatial and temporal patterns in temperature trends,With mounting evidence that global warming is taking place| the cause of this warming has come under vigorous scrutiny. Recent studies have lead to a debate over what contributes the most to regional temperature changes. We investigated air temperature patterns in California from 1950 to 2000. Statistical analyses were used to test the significance of temperature trends in California subregions in an attempt to clarify the spatial and temporal patterns of the occurrence and intensities of warming. Most regions showed a stronger increase in minimum temperatures than with mean and maximum temperatures. Areas of intensive urbanization showed the largest positive trends| while rural| non-agricultural regions showed the least warming. Strong correlations between temperatures and Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) particularly Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) values| also account for temperature variability throughout the state. The analysis of 331 state weather stations associated a number of factors with temperature trends| including urbanization| population| Pacific oceanic conditions and elevation. Using climatic division mean temperature trends| the state had an average warming of 0.99 degrees C (1.79 degrees F) over the 1950-2000 period| or 0.20 degrees C (0.36 degrees F) decade. Southern California had the highest rates of warming| while the NE Interior Basins division experienced cooling. Large urban sites showed rates over twice those for the state| for the mean maximum temperatures| and over 5 times the state's mean rate for the minimum temperatures. In comparison| irrigated cropland sites warmed about 0.13 degrees C decade(-1) annually| but near 0.40 degrees C for summer and fall minima. Offshore Pacific SSTs warmed 0.09 degrees C decade(-1) for the study period. 1419,2007,2,4,Recent changes in allometric relationships among morphological traits in the dipper (Cinclus cinclus),Organisms are responding to recent climate warming by changing different aspects of their biology| including morphology. The present work examines the way in which dipper (Cinclus cinclus) morphology has varied over the past 20 years (1985-2005) in Sierra Nevada (south-eastern Spain). Tarsus length has decreased| but wing and tail length have increased in the same period. These opposite trends have provoked changes in the allometric relationships among the different parts of the body in the dipper. A decrease in body size is predicted by Bergmann's rule| and similar results have been found in other birds. However| although this study found a decrease in tarsus length| no change was found for body mass. The increase in wing and tail length may be related to a variation in the trophic niche in response to the decrease in water volume of rivers that occurred during the study period. Other studies show that the dipper's diet varies with water flow| and water flow has decreased in the study area as a consequence of climatic warming. 8085,2007,2,3,Recent decline in precipitation and tree growth in the eastern Mediterranean,We present evidence of a recent drying in the eastern Mediterranean| based on weather and tree-ring data for Samos| an island of the eastern Aegean Sea. Rainfall declined rapidly after the late 1970s following trends for the entire Mediterranean and was associated with reduced tree-ring width in Pinus brutia. The most recent decline led to the lowest annual radial stem increment after the last 100 years (as far as records reach). As moisture availability decreased best correlations of tree growth with rainfall were obtained for progressively longer integration periods (1-2 years in moister periods| 5-6 years during the severe dryness of 20th century's last decades)| suggesting increasing dependency in deep soil water. Such long-term integration periods of tree-growth responses to precipitation have not been reported before. They may reflect a tree-rooting pattern adapted to cope with even several successive dry years. In late summer 2000| moisture reserves became exhausted| however| and a substantial fraction of low altitude pines died| including some 80-year-old trees| which underlines the exceptional extent this trend had reached. Our findings provide empirical support for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections derived from global circulation models that the Mediterranean| its eastern basin in particular| should become drier as temperature rises| as was the case in the recent past. 7722,2007,2,4,Recent Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean in the context of longer-term dendrohydrological records,[1] Mapped correlations between annual discharges (AD 1938-1990) of the major Eurasian rivers entering the Arctic Ocean (Severnaya Dvina| Pechora| Ob'| Yenisey| Lena| and Kolyma) demonstrate a positive relationship between discharge and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) within the individual basins and more distant areas. The relationship between recent discharge and PDSI supports the application of dendrohydrological modeling to produce reconstructions of discharge extending back before the 20th century. The dendrohydrologic models explain from 41% (Yenisey) to 55% (Pechora) of the observed variability of flow in the individual basins and 39% of the total combined discharge. Discharge reconstructions for the period AD 1800-1990 indicate that there is no long-term monotonic trend toward higher discharge over the past 200 years. Reconstructed annual discharge for the individual rivers and the total discharge from all the rivers experienced in the 20th century are within the bounds of natural variability experienced over the past 200 years. The S. Dvina| Pechora| Ob| and Kolyma reconstructions do display significant multidecadal variability in discharge similar to that observed in the North Atlantic| North Pacific| and Northern Hemisphere climatic parameters. Although the translation of such variability to the river discharges remains uncertain| the presence of multidecadal variability makes it more difficult to detect or ascribe annual discharge changes that may be attributable to global warming. 8212,2007,2,4,Recent temperature increase recorded in an ice core in the source region of Yangtze River,Interests on climate change in the source region of Yangtze River have been raised since it Is a region with the greatest warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). A 70-year history of precipitation delta O-18 has been recovered using an ice core record retrieved in a plat portion of the firn area in the Guoqu Glacier (33 degrees 34-37.8"N| 91 degrees 10'35.3"E| 5720 m a.s.l.)| Mt. Geladaindong (the source region of Yangtze River)| in November| 2005. By using a significant positive relationship between ice core delta O-18 record and summer air temperature (July to September) from the nearby meteorological stations| a history of summer air temperature has been reconstructed for the last 70 years. Summer temperature was relatively low in 1940s and high in 1950s to the middle of 1960s. The lowest temperature occurred in the middle of 1970s. Temperature was low in 1980s and dramatically increased since 1990s| keeping the trend to the beginning of the 21st century. The warming rate recorded in the ice core with 0.5 degrees C/10 a since 1970s is much higher that that in the central TP and the Northern Hemisphere (NH)| and it becomes 1.1 degrees C/10 a since 1990s which is also higher than these from the central TP and the NH| reflecting an accelerated warming and a more sensitive response to global warming in the high elevation region. 1462,2007,4,4,Reconciling sustainability| systems theory and discounting,Most definitions of sustainability imply that a system is to be maintained at a certain level| held within certain limits| into the indefinite future. Sustainability denies run-away growth| but it also avoids any decline or destruction. This sustainability path is hard to reconcile with the renewal cycle that can be observed in many natural systems developing according to their intrinsic mechanisms and in social systems responding to internal and external pressures. Systems are parts of hierarchies where systems of higher levels are made up of subsystems from lower levels. Renewal in components is an important factor of adaptation and evolution. If a system is sustained for too long| it borrows from the sustainability of a supersystern and rests upon lack of sustainability in subsystems. Therefore by sustaining certain systems beyond their renewal cycle| we decrease the sustainability of larger| higher-level systems. For example| Schumpeter's theory of creative destruction posits that in a capitalist economy| the collapse and renewal of firms and industries is necessary to sustain the vitality of the larger economic system. However| if the capitalist economic system relies on endless growth| then sustaining it for too long will inevitably borrow from the sustainability of the global ecosystem. This could prove catastrophic for humans and other species. To reconcile sustainability with hierarchy theory| we must decide which hierarchical level in a system we want to sustain indefinitely| and accept that lower level subsystems must have shorter life spans. In economic analysis| inter-temporal discount rates essentially tell us how long we should care about sustaining any given system. Economists distinguish between discount rates for individuals based on personal time preference| lower discount rates for firms based on the opportunity cost of capital| and even lower discount rates for society. For issues affecting even higher-level systems| such as global climate change| many economists question the suitability of discounting future values at all. We argue that to reconcile sustainability with inter-temporal discounting| discount rates should be determined by the hierarchical level of the system being analyzed. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1497,2007,4,4,Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic flux,Context. Total solar irradiance changes by about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum. Accurate measurements of this quantity are only available since 1978 and do not provide information on longer-term secular trends. Aims. In order to reliably evaluate the Sun's role in recent global climate change| longer time series are| however| needed. They can only be assessed with the help of suitable models. Methods. The total solar irradiance is reconstructed from the end of the Maunder minimum to the present based on variations of the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. Results. Our model successfully reproduces three independent data sets: total solar irradiance measurements available since 1978| total photospheric magnetic flux since 1974 and the open magnetic flux since 1868 empirically reconstructed using the geomagnetic aa-index. The model predicts an increase in the solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum of 1.3(-0.4)(+0.2) Wm(-2). 8378,2007,2,2,Reconstruction of the 1979-2006 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR,Results from a 28-year simulation (1979 2006) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) reveal an increase of solid precipitation (+ 0.4 +/- 2.5 km(3) yr(-2)) and runoff (+ 7.9 +/- 3.3 km(3) yr(-2)) of surface meltwater. The net effect of these competing factors is a significant Surface Mass Balance (SMB) loss of -7.2 +/- 5.1 km(3) yr(-2). The contribution of changes in the net water vapour flux (+ 0.02 +/- 0.09 km(3) yr(-2)) and rainfall (+ 0.2 +/- 0.2 km(3) yr(-2)) to the SMB variability is negligible. The meltwater supply has increased because the GrIS surface has been warming up + 2.4 degrees C since 1979. Sensible heat flux| latent heat flux and net solar radiation have not varied significantly over the last three decades. However| the simulated downward infrared flux has increased by 9.3 Wm(-2) since 1979. The natural climate variability (e. g. the North Atlantic Oscillation) does not explain these changes. The recent global warming| due to the greenhouse gas concentration increase induced by human activities| could be a cause of these changes. The doubling of surface meltwater flux into the ocean over the period 1979-2006 suggests that the overall ice sheet mass balance has been increasingly negative| given the likely meltwater-induced acceleration of outlet glaciers. This study suggests that increased melting overshadows over an increased accumulation in a warming scenario and that the GrIS is likely to keep losing mass in the future. An enduring GrIS melting will probably affect in the future an certain effect on the stability of the thermohaline circulation and the global sea level rise. 1423,2007,2,4,Reduced plant-soil feedback of plant species expanding their range as compared to natives,1. As a result of global warming| species may spread into previously cool regions. Species that disperse faster than their natural enemies may become released from top-down control. We investigated whether plants originating from southern Europe and recently established in north-western Europe experience less soil pathogen effects than native species. 2. We selected three plant species originating from southern Europe that have immigrated into the Netherlands and three similar native Dutch species. All six plant species were grown in sterilized soils with a soil inoculum collected from the rhizospheres of field populations. As a control we grew a series of all six plant species with a sterilized rhizosphere inoculum. 3. We harvested the plants| added the conditioned soil to sterilized soil and grew a second generation of all six plant species in order to test for each plant pair feedback effects from the conditioned soil communities to conspecifics and heterospecifics. 4. The effect of the soil community is dependent on plant species| and is dependent on soil fertility in only one of the three pairs. 5. Soil conditioning caused less biomass reduction to exotic plant species than to native species| suggesting that exotic immigrants are less exposed to soil pathogens than similar native plant species. 6. Our results suggest that plant species that expand their range as a result of climate change may become released from soil pathogenic activity. Whether the exotics are released from soil pathogens| or whether they experience enhanced benefit from mutualistic symbionts remains to be studied. We conclude that range expansion may result in enemy release patterns that are similar to artificially introduced invasive exotic plant species. 7. The escape from enemies through range shifts changes key biotic interactions and complicates predictions of future distribution and dominance. 7744,2007,4,2,Reducing the discrepancy between ASTER and MODIS land surface temperature products,Human-induced global warming has significantly increased the importance of satellite monitoring of land surface temperature (LST) on a global scale. The MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provides a 1-km resolution LST product with almost daily coverage of the Earth| invaluable to both local and global change studies. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) provides a LST product with a high spatial resolution of 90-m and a 16-day recurrent cycle| simultaneously acquired at the same height and nadir view as MODIS. ASTER and MODIS are complementary in resolution| offering a unique opportunity for scale-related studies. ASTER and MODIS LST have been widely used but the errors in LST were mostly disregarded. Correction of ASTER-to-MODIS LST discrepancies is essential for studies reliant upon the joint use of these sensors. In this study| we compared three correction approaches: the Wan et al.'s approach| the refined Wan et al.'s approach| and the generalized split window (GSW) algorithm based approach. The Wan et al.'s approach corrects the MODIS 1-km LST using MODIS 5-km LST. The refined approach modifies the Wan et al.'s approach through incorporating ASTER emissivity and MODIS 5-km data. The GSW algorithm approach does not use MODIS 5-km but only ASTER emissivity data. We examined the case over a semi-arid terrain area for the part of the Loess Plateau of China. All the approaches reduced the ASTER-to-MODIS LST discrepancy effectively. With terrain correction| the original ASTER-to-MODIS LST difference reduced from 2.7 +/- 1.28 K to -0.1 +/- 1.87 K for the Wan et al.'s approach| 0.2 +/- 1.57 K for the refined approach| and 0.1 +/- 1.33 K for the GSW algorithm based approach. Among all the approaches| the GSW algorithm based approach performed best in terms of mean| standard deviation| root mean square root| and correlation coefficient. 7866,2007,3,3,Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by no-tilling rice cultivation in Hachirogata polder| northern Japan: Life-cycle inventory analysis,The scenarios for conventional puddling and no-tilling rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation were compared in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from paddy fields| fuel consumption and manufacturing of invested materials using a life cycle inventory (LCI) based analysis. Only the differences between the scenarios were examined. The no-tilling scenario omitted both tilling and puddling| but included spraying of a non-selective herbicide and used a transplanter equipped with a rotor. Fertilization was a basal single application of controlled release fertilizer in nursery boxes for all scenarios. After transplanting| there were no differences in machine work| invested materials or rice yields between the scenarios. The no-tilling scenario saved on fuel consumption| totaling carbon dioxide (CO2) output of 42 kg ha(-1)| which was equal to the 6% reported GHG emissions from fuel consumption by operating machines during rice production in Japan. Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the paddy fields were also monitored and compared for the scenarios. Methane has a major effect on global warming as part of the GHG emitted from paddy fields. The cumulative CH4 emissions from the no-tilling cultivation were 43% lower than those from conventional puddling cultivation because the plow layer was more oxidative in no-tilling cultivation. The N2O emissions were not significantly different between the cultivation scenarios. There were no significant differences in soil respiration| soil carbon contents or straw yields between the cultivation scenarios. The effect of tillage on CO2 flux in the paddy fields did not seem to be significant in this study. Consequently| the GHG emissions from the no-tilling field counted as CO2 using global warming potentials were 1|741 kg CO2 ha(-1) lower than those from the conventional puddling field. In conclusion| no-tilling rice cultivation has the potential to save 1|783 kg CO2 ha(-1) calculated using the sum of fuel consumption and GHG emissions from paddy fields. No-tilling rice cultivation is considered to be environmentally friendly agriculture with respect to reducing GHG emissions. 7761,2007,3,2,Reduction of greenhouse gas emission on a medium-pressure boiler using hydrogen-rich fuel control,The increasing emission of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuel is believed to be responsible for global warming. A study was carried out to probe the influence of replacing fuel gas with hydrogen-rich refinery gas (R.G.) on the reduction of gas emission (CO2 and NO2) and energy saving. Test results show that the emission of CO2 can be reduced by 16.4% annually (or 21|500 tons per year). The NO| emission can be 8.2% lower| or 75 tons less per year. Furthermore| the use of refinery gas leads to a saving of NT$57 million (approximately US$1.73 million) on fuel costs each year. There are no CO2| CO| SOx| unburned hydrocarbon| or particles generated from the combustion of added hydrogen. The hydrogen content in R.G. employed in this study was between 50 and 80 mol%| so the C/H ratio of the feeding fuel was reduced. Therefore| the use of hydrogen-rich fuel has practical benefits for both energy saving and the reduction of greenhouse gas emission. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8079,2007,5,3,Reef development at high-latitudes during multiple interglacial cycles: New evidence from Lord Howe Island| southwestern Pacific,Reef development during past Interglacial periods| when sea level and sea surface temperatures were higher than today| provide unique insights into how reef systems may respond to projected human-induced global warming. Lord Howe Island currently represents the southernmost limit of reef development in the Pacific. Reef growth of Pleistocene age has been inferred to have occurred around the island| and this paper provides the first detailed descriptions on the character of this development. Two phases of reef growth are identified| which occurred as isolated fringing reefs along the edge of the basaltic hills of the island. Uranium-series dating indicates that the upper part of the sequence is of Last Interglacial age| however extensive calcite recrystallisation meant the lower part of the sequence does not yield reliable ages. Calcite cements suggest that several phases of recrystallisation have occurred meaning the lower part of the sequence is most likely to represent reef of Penultimate Interglacial age. Component analysis of the sedimentary matrix within the reef indicates coralline algae dominated sands which are very similar to the modern reef environment. This suggests that the environment at Lord Howe Island has remained at or close to the environmental limits for reef growth during the past few interglacials| despite lithospheric plate motion moving this island further north into reef building seas. 1526,2007,4,4,Regional land surface energy fluxes by satellite remote sensing in the Upper Xilin River Watershed (Inner Mongolia| China),The Inner Mongolia grassland of China is representative of semi-arid grasslands in temperate zones. Studying land surface processes in this region will improve the understanding of regional climate formation and the feedback with global climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides an excellent opportunity to study land-atmosphere interactions at the regional scale. It is necessary to develop feasible and reasonable remote sensing-based methods to map surface energy fluxes for a specific study area. In this paper| previously published algorithms and empirical formulae were tested with Landsat 7 ETM+ data to derive the regional distributions of land surface reflectance| surface temperature| NDVI and land surface energy fluxes (net radiation| soil heat flux| sensible heat flux and latent heat flux) over the upper Xilin River watershed in Inner Mongolia| China. A new land use/land cover classification was developed and applied for regionalization analysis. Validation of remote sensing derived surface reflectance| surface temperature| net radiation and sensible heat flux with field measurements shows differences of about 13| 4| 1| and 28%| respectively. This study provides valuable guidance for further investigation of the whole watershed. 8236,2007,4,4,Regional summer temperature decrease against global warming in China| landform effect?,The data of 160 national meteorological observatory (NMO) stations with long-term monthly temperature data for China were analyzed in this study to show the basin-centered summer temperature decrease against global warming in the past half century. The summer and winter isotherm structures Of 1950s and 1990s worked out by interpolation show the isotherm structure variations: the isotherm structure generally moves northward in winter| but in summer it is characterized with separate high-temperature and low-temperature centers and the isotherm structure moves inward the centers with global warming| indicating that the temperature in the highland areas increases but that in the lowland areas decreases in the summer of the duration. The possible mechanism of the basin-centered temperature decrease in summer is discussed in this paper. 7915,2007,5,4,Regional variability of climate-growth relationships in Pinus cembra high elevation forests in the Alps,1. The tree-ring growth response of stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) to climatic variability was studied in the Alps. The aims were (i) to assess tree-ring growth patterns at different spatial-temporal scales; (ii) to identify the climate parameters that explain most of the variability in radial growth at different time domains; and (iii) to study past and current trends in radial growth and climate-growth relationships at different locations. 2. High- and low-frequency stone pine chronologies were compiled for 30 treeline sites on the French and Italian Alps. We used gridded climate data computed from 200 years of instrumental records from an extensive Alpine network. Climate-growth relationships were computed with bootstrap correlation functions and their stationarity and consistency over time assessed with moving correlation. 3. No spatial patterns were detected in stone pine chronology statistics despite the regional clustering observed in tree-ring series and climate responses. This can be attributed to (i) local weather variability; (ii) different biophysical conditions caused by soil moisture| solar radiation| snowmelt dynamics and growing season length; and (iii) forest stand history and age structure| the expression of long-term land use and disturbances. 4. The exceptionally long-term climate records allowed significant stone pine growth response changes to be assessed at both annual and decadal time scales. Winter conditions and spring-summer temperatures mainly affected the growing season length| in addition to site carbon and water balance. Most of these limiting factors varied spatially and temporally along the latitudinal and longitudinal gradients in response to the corresponding changes in local conditions. 5. Our results show evidence of a clear response variability of Pinus cembra to climate limiting factors| at both spatial and temporal scale. Such knowledge extended to other species and regions will provide better estimates of the effect of climate variability on species distribution and dynamics within global change scenarios and more accurate past climate reconstruction and forest ecosystem modelling. 8115,2007,2,4,Relating forest damage data to the wind field from high-resolution RCM simulations: Case study of Anatol striking Sweden in December 1999,Forestry is of major economical importance in Europe| and recent devastating windstorms have pinpointed the vulnerability of this economic sector to windstorms. Forest damage is an important economic issue at a country level and may become even of larger concern under future conditions following global warming. An underlying question is to what extent the storm damage is due to changes in the wind climate compared to the effect of changes in forest management practices? In this paper| the first part of this rather complex problem is tackled. By using the Canadian Regional Climate Model| CRCM| including a physically based gust parameterisation scheme| NCEPNCAR reanalysis wind fields for the windstorm Anatol| on December 3-4| 1999| were downscaled| into a nested set-up| to 2 km resolution. The aim is to relate the simulated storm wind field to the observed distribution of storm damaged forests in Scania in southern Sweden| as a first methodological step towards analysing the effect of future windstorms in Swedish forests at the highest spatial resolution one can afford nowadays. Our results show that the CRCM produced realistic wind field simulations| compared to station observations| of the windstorm event in 1999. The simulated winds were underestimated at the coasts| but in congruence with inland observations. Most of the damaged forest stands were located on south-westerly (SW) slopes| which indicated a south-westerly wind during the wind throw process. This SW wind direction was evident in the early phase of the simulated storm| but then changed into a westerly flow| at an earlier stage than the true observations specified. Further| most damage occurred in the areas of simulated maximum wind speed greater than 30 m s. To conclude| the CRCM has proven to be a useful tool to realistically simulate a forest damaging storm event. Hence| the model could be used for further study cases| preferably driven by a GCM| in order to reveal a greater understanding about recent storms| which in turn helps us evaluate future climate change driven storm conditions. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 8306,2007,2,4,Relationship and its instability of ENSO - Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells,Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1951 to 2000 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for Chinese 160 stations. Temporal and spatial patterns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature| which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1951-2000 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO| surface conditions are drier in most regions of China| especially North China| but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River| and Northwest China. During the typical cold phase of ENSO| these anomalies reverse sign. From 1951 to 2000| there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over China| which are all closely related to strong El Nino events. In other words| when one strong El Nino event happens| there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over China on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also suggest that during the last 2-3 decades climate changes over China| especially North China's drying and northwest China's wetting| are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1970s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3-8-year band| but the correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1951-1962 and 1976-1991| but low during 1963-1975 and 1992-2000. 8046,2007,2,4,Relationship between global warming and species richness of vascular plants,We analyzed climatological and geographical variables in 90 countries from the Northern Hemisphere to determine the significant variability of plant species richness as it relates to broad-scale levels of global warming. This variability was quantified by the parameters of temperature and precipitation. Of the 27 temperature variables and 13 precipitation variables| 6 variables had negative influences on species richness while 5 variables had positive impacts. When we estimated the effect of higher temperatures| we found that a 1 or 2 degrees C rise in global warming produced an increase in species richness of 1.6 or 3.2%| respectively. 1547,2007,2,4,Relative importance of estuarine flatfish nurseries along the Portuguese coast,The relative importance of nursery areas and their relationships with several environmental variables were evaluated in nine estuarine systems along the Portuguese coast based on trawl surveys. Historical data were used to outline changes and trends in the nursery function of some of these estuaries over the past decades. The dominant flatfish species in Portuguese estuaries were Platichthys flesus (Linnaeus| 1758)| Solea solea (Linnaeus| 1758)| Solea senegalensis Kaup| 1858 and Monochirus hispidus Rafinesque| 1814| but their occurrence differed among the estuaries| R flesus only occurred in estuaries north of the Tejo estuary (39 degrees N)| S. solea was quite rare along the southern Portuguese coast (south of 37 degrees 30'N)| S. senegalensis occurred in estuaries throughout the coast| but its abundance varied considerably| and the occurrence of M. hispidus was limited to the Sado estuary and Ria Formosa. A Correspondence Analysis was performed to evaluate the relationships between flatfish species abundance and geomorphologic and hydrologic characteristics of estuaries (latitude| freshwater flow| estuarine area| intertidal area| mean depth and residence time). Abiotic characteristics (depth| temperature| salinity| sediment type) of nursery grounds of each flatfish species were also evaluated. Results showed that some estuaries along the Portuguese coast have nursery grounds used by several flatfish species (e.g. Ria de Aveiro| Sado| estuary)| while in other systems a segregation was noticed| with juveniles of different species occurring in distinct estuarine areas (e.g. Minho and Mondego estuaries). This emphasizes the relevance of niche overlap| but the potential for competition may be considerably minimized by differences in resource use patterns and by an extremely high abundance of resources. Peak densities of flatfishes recorded in nurseries areas along the Portuguese coast were within the range of values reported for other geographical areas. Inter-annual abundance variability of all the species in the Tejo and Sado estuaries was extremely high| with a drastic decrease in P flesus in the Tejo estuary| probably related to higher water temperature in recent years due to global climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1489,2007,4,4,Remote monitoring of spatial and temporal surface soil moisture in fire disturbed boreal forest ecosystems with ERS SAR imagery,Due to the large volume of carbon currently stored in boreal regions and the high frequency of wildfire| the prospects of a warming climate would have important implications for the ecology of boreal forests which in turn would have significant feedbacks for carbon cycling| fire frequency| and global climate change. Since ecological studies and climate change models require routine information on surface soil moisture| the ability to remotely sense this variable is highly desirable. Toward this end research was conducted on developing methods for the retrieval of spatially and temporally varying patterns of soil moisture from recently burned boreal forest ecosystems of Alaska using C-band satellite radar data. To do this we focused on both individual date and temporal SAR datasets to develop techniques and algorithms which indicate how moisture varies across a recently burned boreal forest. For each of the methods developed we focused on reducing errors of SAR-derived soil moisture estimates due to confounding factors of variations in vegetative biomass and surface roughness. For the individual date soil moisture monitoring| we grouped test sites by a measurable biophysical variable| burn severity| and then developed algorithms relating moisture to SAR backscatter for each burn severity group. The algorithms developed had high coefficients of determination (0.56-0.82) and the moisture maps produced had high accuracy (3.61 rms error) based on the minimal validation conducted. For the seasonal soil moisture mapping we used principal component analysis to capture the time-variant feature of soil moisture and minimize the relatively time-invariant features that confound SAR backscatter. This resulted in good agreement between the drainage maps produced and our limited in situ observations and weather data. However| further validation| with larger sample sizes| is needed. While this study focuses on Alaska| research indicates that the techniques developed should be applicable to boreal forests worldwide. 1469,2007,3,3,Removal of carbon dioxide by absorption into blended amines: kinetics of absorption into aqueous AMP/HMDA| AMP/MDEA| and AMP/piperazine solutions,The emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) are believed make a significant impact on global climate change. Hence| amine chemical absorption technology has been suggested to separate and recover CO2. In this study| reaction rate constants between CO2 and blended amines were determined by measuring their absorption rate for CO2. The experiments were carried out to investigate the characteristics of CO2 absorption by using additional absorbents such as hexamethylenediamine (HMDA)| N-methyldiethanolamine (MDEA) or piperazine blended into 2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol (AMP) in an agitated vessel. The absorption rates of CO2 into aqueous blended amine solutions were measured. Additive concentrations of 1| 3| and 5 wt% were added for each 30 wt% AMP solution. The results showed that the addition of HMDA| MDEA or piperazine into AMP increased the absorption rate as compared to AMP alone. Of these additives| HMDA showed the most enhancement in the reaction rate of AMP. The reaction rate constants of HMDA| MDEA and piperazine blended into AMP at 303-343 K were given by k(H) 3.84 x 10(10)exp(-5361/T)| kappa m = 6.60 x 10(9)exp(-4959/T)| and kp = 9.09 x 10(9)exp(-5058/T)| respectively. 1407,2007,4,4,Removal of noise by wavelet method to generate high quality temporal data of terrestrial MODIS products,Time-series terrestrial parameters derived from NOAA/AVHRR| SPOT/VEGETATION| TERRA| or AQUA/MODIS data| such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)| Leaf Index Area (LAI)| and Albedo| have been extensively applied to global climate change. However| the noise impedes these data from being further analyzed and used. In this paper| a wavelet-based method is used to remove the contaminated data from time-series observations| which can effectively maintain the temporal pattern and approximate the "true" signals. The method is composed of two steps: (a)| time-series values are linearly interpolated with the help of quality flags and the blue band| and (b)| time series are decomposed into different scales and the highest correlation among several adjacent scales is used| which is more robust and objective than the threshold-based method. Our objective was to reduce noise in MODIS NDVI| LAI| and Albedo time-series data and to compare this technique with the BISE algorithm| Fourier-based fitting method| and the Savitzky-Golay filter method. The results indicate that our newly developed method enhances the ability to remove noise in all three time-series data products. 8184,2007,2,4,Reproductive Phase Locking of Mosquito Populations in Response to Rainfall Frequency,The frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events is projected to change in response to global warming. Here we show that these hydrologic changes may have a profound effect on mosquito population dynamics and rates of mosquito-borne disease transmission. We develop a simple model| which treats the mosquito reproductive cycle as a phase oscillator that responds to rainfall frequency forcing. This model reproduces observed mosquito population dynamics and indicates that mosquito-borne disease transmission can be sensitive to rainfall frequency. These findings indicate that changes to the hydrologic cycle| in particular the frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events| could have a profound effect on the transmission rates of some mosquito-borne diseases. 8270,2007,3,3,Research and development on system integration technology for connection of hydrogen production system to an HTGR,The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has been promoting research and development on the hydrogen production technology with a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR)| with a view to contributing to the global warming issue and hydrogen energy society in the near future. The system integration technology for connection of the hydrogen production system to the HTGR is one of the key technologies to put hydrogen production with nuclear energy to commercial use. Research and development on the system integration technology has been carried out for four items: control technology to maintain reactor operation against thermal disturbance caused by the hydrogen production system| estimation of the tritium permeation into the hydrogen from the reactor| a countermeasure against explosion| and development of a high-temperature valve to isolate the reactor and hydrogen production systems in accidents. This report describes the research activities on the system integration technology at JAEA.
7992,2007,2,3,Response of dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the ocean and atmosphere to global warming,A global coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling system is applied in a transient climate simulation to study the response to global warming of Dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the ocean| the DMS flux to the atmosphere| and the resulting DMS concentrations in the atmosphere. The DMS production and consumption processes in the ocean are linked to plankton dynamics simulated in the marine biogeochemistry model HAMOCC5.1| embedded in an ocean general circulation model (MPI-OM). The atmospheric model ECHAM5 is extended by the microphysical aerosol model HAM| treating the sulfur chemistry in the atmosphere and the evolution of microphysically interacting internally and externally mixed aerosol populations. For future conditions (2000-2100) we assume greenhouse gas concentrations| aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions according to the SRES A1B scenario. We analyzed the results in terms of simulated changes between the period 1861-1890 and 2061-2090. For the global annual mean DMS sea surface concentration and the DMS flux we found a reduction by 10%. The DMS burden in the atmosphere is reduced by only 3%| owing to a longer lifetime of DMS in the atmosphere in a warmer climate (+ 7%). Regionally the response and the underlying mechanisms are quite inhomogeneous. The largest reduction in the DMS sea surface concentration is simulated in the Southern Ocean (-40%) caused by an increase in the summer mixed layer depth| leading to less favorable light conditions for phytoplankton growth. In the mid and low latitudes DMS sea surface concentrations are predominantly reduced due to nutrient limitation of the phytoplankton growth through higher ocean stratification and less transport of nutrients into the surface layers. 1475,2007,4,4,Response of macroinvertebrates to warming| nutrient addition and predation in large-scale mesocosm tanks,There is increasing concern about the effect of climate change on aquatic systems. We examined changes in macroinvertebrate communities caused by increased temperature (3 degrees C above ambient during summer only and continuous 3 degrees C above ambient all year round)| influences of fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) and addition of nutrients ( nitrogen and phosphorus) in 48 large-scale (3000 l) tanks over a 2 year period. While numbers of Isopoda| Chaoborus| Corixidae| Ephemeroptera| Notonectidae and Odonata were reduced by the presence of fish| nutrient addition caused isopods| corixids| mayflies and odonates to increase in abundance. Impacts of temperature increase were surprisingly low| with only gastropods increasing in heated tanks| suggesting that| overall abundances of most macroinvertebrate taxa will not be severely affected by the predicted temperature rise. To determine if taxa were sampled representatively during the experiment| net sweep samples taken towards the end of the experiment were compared with final macroinvertebrate abundances when the complete contents of each tank were harvested. We found that net sweeping is an appropriate semi-quantitative method for most taxa in mesocosm tanks. However| mites| coleopteran adults and larvae| dipterans and Chaoborus were not adequately sampled. This might explain why we could not detect any treatment effects of temperature| fish or nutrients on mites| coleopterans and dipterans and calls for different sampling techniques for these taxa| especially in ponds with vegetation stands. 8248,2007,2,4,Response of peatland carbon dioxide and methane fluxes to a water table drawdown experiment,Northern peatlands play an important role in the global carbon cycle representing a significant stock of soil carbon and a substantial natural source of atmospheric methane (CH(4)). Peatland carbon cycling is affected by water table position which is predicted to be lowered by climate change. Therefore we compared carbon fluxes along a natural peatland microtopographic gradient ( control) to an adjacent microtopographic gradient with an experimentally lowered water table ( experimental) during three growing seasons to assess the impact of water table drawdown on peatland-atmosphere carbon exchange. Water table drawdown induced peat subsidence and a change in the vegetation community at the experimental site. This limited differences in carbon dioxide (CO(2)) exchange between the control and experimental sites resulting in no significant differences between sites after three seasons. However| there was a trend to higher respiration rates and increased productivity in low-lying zones (hollows) and this was coincident with increased vegetation cover at these plots. In general| CH(4) efflux was reduced at the experimental site| although CH(4) efflux from control and experimental hollows remained similar throughout the study. The differential response of carbon cycling to the water table drawdown along the microtopographic gradient resulted in local topographic high zones ( hummocks) experiencing a relative increase in global warming potential (GWP) of 152%| while a 70% reduction in GWP was observed at hollows. Thus the distribution and composition of microtopographic elements| or microforms| within a peatland is important for determining how peatland carbon cycling will respond to climate change. 7773,2007,2,4,Response of plant species richness and primary productivity in shrublands along a north-south gradient in Europe to seven years of experimental warming and drought: reductions in primary productivity in the heat and drought year of 2003,We used a nonintrusive field experiment carried out at six sites - Wales (UK)| Denmark (DK)| the Netherlands (NL)| Hungary (HU)| Sardinia (Italy - IT)| and Catalonia (Spain - SP) - along a climatic and latitudinal gradient to examine the response of plant species richness and primary productivity to warming and drought in shrubland ecosystems. The warming treatment raised the plot daily temperature by ca. 1 degrees C| while the drought treatment led to a reduction in soil moisture at the peak of the growing season that ranged from 26% at the SP site to 82% in the NL site. During the 7 years the experiment lasted (1999-2005)| we used the pin-point method to measure the species composition of plant communities and plant biomass| litterfall| and shoot growth of the dominant plant species at each site. A significantly lower increase in the number of species pin-pointed per transect was found in the drought plots at the SP site| where the plant community was still in a process of recovering from a forest fire in 1994. No changes in species richness were found at the other sites| which were at a more mature and stable state of succession and| thus less liable to recruitment of new species. The relationship between annual biomass accumulation and temperature of the growing season was positive at the coldest site and negative at the warmest site. The warming treatment tended to increase the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) at the northern sites. The relationship between annual biomass accumulation and soil moisture during the growing season was not significant at the wettest sites| but was positive at the driest sites. The drought treatment tended to reduce the ANPP in the NL| HU| IT| and SP sites. The responses to warming were very strongly related to the Gaussen aridity index (stronger responses the lower the aridity)| whereas the responses to drought were not. Changes in the annual aboveground biomass accumulation| litterfall| and| thus| the ANPP| mirrored the interannual variation in climate conditions: the most outstanding change was a decrease in biomass accumulation and an increase in litterfall at most sites during the abnormally hot year of 2003. Species richness also tended to decrease in 2003 at all sites except the cold and wet UK site. Species-specific responses to warming were found in shoot growth: at the SP site| Globularia alypum was not affected| while the other dominant species| Erica multiflora| grew 30% more; at the UK site| Calluna vulgaris tended to grow more in the warming plots| while Empetrum nigrum tended to grow less. Drought treatment decreased plant growth in several studied species| although there were some species such as Pinus halepensis at the SP site or C. vulgaris at the UK site that were not affected. The magnitude of responses to warming and drought thus depended greatly on the differences between sites| years| and species and these multiple plant responses may be expected to have consequences at ecosystem and community level. Decreases in biodiversity and the increase in E. multiflora growth at the SP site as a response to warming challenge the assumption that sensitivity to warming may be less well developed at more southerly latitudes; likewise| the fact that one of the studied shrublands presented negative ANPP as a response to the 2003 heat wave also challenges the hypothesis that future climate warming will lead to an enhancement of plant growth and carbon sequestration in temperate ecosystems. Extreme events may thus change the general trend of increased productivity in response to warming n the colder sites. 8201,2007,2,4,Response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to increasing atmospheric CO(2): Sensitivity to mean climate state,The dependence on the mean climate state of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in 17 increasing greenhouse gas experiments with different initial conditions. The AMOC declines in all experiments by 15% to 31%| with typically the largest declines in those experiments with the strongest initial AMOC. In all cases| changes in surface heat fluxes| rather than changes in surface freshwater fluxes| are the dominant cause for the transient AMOC decrease. Surface freshwater fluxes actually switch from reducing the transient AMOC decrease| for low values of atmospheric CO(2)| to reinforcing the transient AMOC decrease| for higher values of atmospheric CO(2). In addition| we find that due to changes in the strengths of feedbacks associated with water vapour and snow/sea ice| the climate sensitivity and transient climate response of the UVic model strongly depends on the mean climate state. 8084,2007,2,4,Response of vegetation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to global warming,Using satellite-observed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dada and station-observed surface air temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere (NH)| we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of vegetation variations in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and their correlations with global warming from 1982 to 2002. It is found that the late spring and early summer (May-June) are the months with the strongest responses of vegetation to global warming. Based on the Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) method| the study shows that the first REOF spatial pattern of average NDVI for May-June reveals the northern and southern zones with great inter-annual variations of vegetation| the northern zone from the eastern Kunlun Mountains to the southwestern Qilian Mountain and southern zone from the northern edge of the Himalayas eastward to the Hengduan Mountains. The vegetation| especially grassland| in the two zones increases significantly with global warming| with a correlation coefficient of 0.71 between the first REOF of May-June vegetation and the April-May surface air temperature anomaly in the NH during 1982-2002. A long-term increasing trend in May-June vegetation for the plateau region as a whole is also attributed mainly to global warming although there are considerable regional differences. The areas with low NDVI (grassland and shrubland) usually respond more evidently to global warming| especially since the 1990s| than those with moderate or high NDVI values. 8114,2007,2,4,Restoration of shallow lakes by nutrient control and biomanipulation-the successful strategy varies with lake size and climate,Major efforts have been made world-wide to improve the ecological quality of shallow lakes by reducing external nutrient loading. These have often resulted in lower in-lake total phosphorus (TP) and decreased chlorophyll a levels in surface water| reduced phytoplankton biomass and higher Secchi depth. Internal loading delays recovery| but in north temperate lakes a new equilibrium with respect to TP often is reached after < 10-15 years. In comparison| the response time to reduced nitrogen (N) loading is typically < 5 years. Also increased top-down control may be important. Fish biomass often declines| and the percentage of piscivores| the zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio| the contribution of Daphnia to zooplankton biomass and the cladoceran size all tend to increase. This holds for both small and relatively large lakes| for example| the largest lake in Denmark (40 km(-2))| shallow Lake Arreso| has responded relatively rapidly to a ca. 76% loading reduction arising from nutrient reduction and top-down control. Some lakes| however| have proven resistant to loading reductions. To accelerate recovery several physico-chemical and biological restoration methods have been developed for north temperate lakes and used with varying degrees of success. Biological measures| such as selective removal of planktivorous fish| stocking of piscivorous fish and implantation or protection of submerged plants| often are cheap versus traditional physico-chemical methods and are therefore attractive. However| their long-term effectiveness is uncertain. It is argued that additional measures beyond loading reduction are less cost-efficient and often not needed in very large lakes. Although fewer data are available on tropical lakes these seem to respond to external loading reductions| an example being Lake Paranoa| Brazil (38 km(-2)). However| differences in biological interactions between cold temperate versus warm temperate-subtropical-tropical lakes make transfer of existing biological restoration methods to warm lakes difficult. Warm lakes often have prolonged growth seasons with a higher risk of long-lasting algal blooms and dense floating plant communities| smaller fish| higher aggregation of fish in vegetation (leading to loss of zooplankton refuge)| more annual fish cohorts| more omnivorous feeding by fish and less specialist piscivory. The trophic structures of warm lakes vary markedly| depending on precipitation| continental or coastal regions locations| lake age and temperature. Unfortunately| little is known about trophic dynamics and the role of fish in warm lakes. Since many warm lakes suffer from eutrophication| new insights are needed into trophic interactions and potential lake restoration methods| especially since eutrophication is expected to increase in the future owing to economic development and global warming. 1532,2007,2,4,Resurrection ecology and global climate change research in freshwater ecosystems,The complex effects of global climate change on freshwater ecosystems limit our ability to predict biological responses in a standard way and may compromise ecosystem management with respect to potential changes. I present a theoretical framework that shows the usefulness of resurrection ecology for standardizing cross-system comparisons of ecological responses to global climate change. Resurrection ecology makes use of plant seed and animal resting-egg (propagule) banks that integrate past environmental histories in the gene pools of their organisms. Resurrected organisms that have undergone different periods of dormancy can be studied comparatively using evolutionary/genetic and experimental approaches. Both approaches combined can provide insights into how the dimensions of species' ecological niches have shifted over time and could help reveal whether direct effects of climate change (increased temperatures and CO2 concentrations and hydrological alterations) or other anthropogenic stressors (e.g.| contamination| landuse change) have caused microevolution. Insights gained from resurrection ecology could be used to manage gene flow between populations and to help prevent extinctions of threatened populations. These insights could be used to help manage ecosystem structure and function and maintain ecological sustainability. However| our ability to apply results from resurrection ecology to organisms that do not have long-term dormancy stages in their life cycles may be limited| and the usefulness of resurrection ecology will have to be evaluated along gradients of hydroperiod and flood frequency| which may determine rates of microevolution in aquatic ecosystems. 7946,2007,3,4,Reuse of condensed water to improve the performance of an air-cycle refrigeration system for transport applications,Air-cycle refrigeration systems have been used in aircraft for over 50 years due to their high durability. This paper discusses a possible substitution of an air-cycle system for a conventional vapour-compression system for transport applications. Air is a totally environmental benign working-fluid that does not lead to ozone depletion or global warming. A detailed design and performance estimation have been carried out for a high-pressure water-removal air-cycle system. In addition| a train compartment equipped with this air-cycle system has been investigated. The results show that the system is suitable for transport vessels| such as trains and ships| especially for the purpose of cooling in summer because re-using the condensed water can improve the performance of the system significantly. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8360,2007,2,4,Risk assessment in the face of a changing environment: Gypsy moth and climate change in Utah,The importance of efficaciously assessing the risk for introduction and establishment of pest species is an increasingly important ecological and economic issue. Evaluation of climate is fundamental to determining the potential success of an introduced or invasive insect pest. However| evaluating climatic suitability poses substantial difficulties; climate can be measured and assessed in a bewildering array of ways. Some physiological filter| in essence a lens that focuses climate through the requirements and constraints of a potential pest introduction| is required. Difficulties in assessing climate suitability are further exacerbated by the effects of climate change. Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) is an exotic| tree-defoliating insect that is frequently introduced into the western United States. In spite of an abundance of potential host species| these introductions have yet to result in established populations. The success of eradication efforts and the unsuccessful establishment of many detected and undetected introductions may be related to an inhospitable climate. Climatic suitability for gypsy moth in the western United States| however| is potentially improving| perhaps rapidly| due to a general warming trend that began in the mid 1970s and continues today. In this work| we describe the application of a physiologically based climate suitability model for evaluating risk of gypsy moth establishment on a landscape level. Development of this risk assessment system first required amassing databases that integrated the gypsy moth climatic assessment model| with host species distributions| and climate (historical| present| and future). This integrated system was then used to evaluate climate change scenarios for native host species in Utah| with the result that risk of establishment will dramatically increase during the remainder of the 21st century under reasonable climate change scenarios. We then applied the risk assessment system to several case histories of detected gypsy moth introductions in Utah. These applications demonstrated the general utility of the system for predicting risk of establishment and for designing improved risk detection strategies. 8377,2007,2,4,Riverine transport of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea - past and possible future perspectives,The paper reviews critical processes for the landsea fluxes of biogenic elements (C| N| P| Si) in the Baltic Sea catchment and discusses possible future scenarios as a consequence of improved sewage treatment| agricultural practices and increased hydropower demand (for N| P and Si) and of global warming| i.e.| changes in hydrological patterns (for C). These most significant drivers will not only change the total amount of nutrient inputs and fluxes of organic and inorganic forms of carbon to the Baltic Sea| their ratio (C:N:P:Si) will alter as well with consequences for phytoplankton species composition in the Baltic Sea. In summary| we propose that N fluxes may increase due to higher livestock densities in those countries recently acceded to the EU| whereas P and Si fluxes may decrease due to an improved sewage treatment in these new EU member states and with further damming and still eutrophic states of many lakes in the entire Baltic Sea catchment. This might eventually decrease cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic but increase the potential for other nuisance blooms. Dinoflagellates could eventually substitute diatoms that even today grow below their optimal growth conditions due to low Si concentrations in some regions of the Baltic Sea. C fluxes will probably increase from the boreal part of the Baltic Sea catchment due to the expected higher temperatures and heavier rainfall. However| it is not clear whether dissolved organic carbon and alkalinity| which have opposite feedbacks to global warming| will increase in similar amounts| because the spring flow peak will be smoothed out in time due to higher temperatures that cause less snow cover and deeper soil infiltration. 7867,2007,2,4,Role of blood-oxygen transport in thermal tolerance of the cuttlefish| Sepia officinalis,Mechanisms that affect thermal tolerance of ectothermic organisms have recently received much interest| mainly due to global warming and climate-change debates in both the public and in the scientific community. In physiological terms| thermal tolerance of several marine ectothermic taxa can be linked to oxygen availability| with capacity limitations in ventilatory and circulatory systems contributing to oxygen limitation at extreme temperatures. The present review briefly summarizes the processes that define thermal tolerance in a model cephalopod organism| the cuttlefish Sepia officinalis| with a focus on the contribution of the cephalopod oxygen-carrying blood pigment| hemocyanin. When acutely exposed to either extremely high or low temperatures| cuttlefish display a gradual transition to an anaerobic mode of energy production in key muscle tissues once critical temperatures (T-crit) are reached. At high temperatures| stagnating metabolic rates and a developing hypoxemia can be correlated with a progressive failure of the circulatory system| well before T-crit is reached. However| at low temperatures| declining metabolic rates cannot be related to ventilatory or circulatory failure. Rather| we propose a role for hemocyanin functional characteristics as a major limiting factor preventing proper tissue oxygenation. Using information on the oxygen binding characteristics of cepbalopod hemocyanins| we argue that high oxygen affinities (= low P-50 values)| as found at low temperatures| allow efficient oxygen shuttling only at very low venous oxygen partial pressures. Low venous PO2S limit rates of oxygen diffusion into cells| thus eventually causing the observed transition to anaerobic metabolism. On the basis of existing blood physiological| molecular| and crystallographical data| the potential to resolve the role of hemocyanin isoforms in thermal adaptation by an integrated molecular physiological approach is discussed. 7969,2007,4,4,Role of proteins in soil carbon and nitrogen storage: controls on persistence,Mechanisms of soil organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stabilization are of great interest| due to the potential for increased CO2 release from soil organic matter (SOM) to the atmosphere as a result of global warming| and because of the critical role of soil organic N in controlling plant productivity. Soil proteins are recognized increasingly as playing major roles in stabilization and destabilization of soil organic C and N. Two categories of proteins are proposed: detrital proteins that are released upon cell death and functional proteins that are actively released into the soil to fulfill specific functions. The latter include microbial surface-active proteins (e.g.| hydrophobins| chaplins| SC15| glomalin)| many of which have structures that promote their persistence in the soil| and extracellular enzymes| responsible for many decomposition and nutrient cycling transformations. Here we review information on the nature of soil proteins| particularly those of microbial origin| and on the factors that control protein persistence and turnover in the soil. We discuss first the intrinsic properties of the protein molecule that affect its stability| next possible extrinsic stabilizing influences that arise as the proteins interact with other soil constituents| and lastly controls on accessibility of proteins at coarser spatial scales involving microbial cells| clay particles| and soil aggregates. We conclude that research at the interface between soil science and microbial physiology will yield rapid advances in our understanding of soil proteins. We suggest as research priorities determining the relative abundance and turnover time (age) of microbial versus plant proteins and of functional microbial proteins| including surface-active compounds. 1430,2007,2,4,Sandy beaches at the brink,Sandy beaches line most of the world's oceans and are highly valued by society: more people use sandy beaches than any other type of shore. While the economic and social values of beaches are generally regarded as paramount| sandy shores also have special ecological features and contain a distinctive biodiversity that is generally not recognized. These unique ecosystems are facing escalating anthropogenic pressures| chiefly from rapacious coastal development| direct human uses - mainly associated with recreation - and rising sea levels. Beaches are increasingly becoming trapped in a 'coastal squeeze' between burgeoning human populations from the land and the effects of global climate change from the sea. Society's interventions (e.g. shoreline armouring| beach nourishment) to combat changes in beach environments| such as erosion and shoreline retreat| can result in severe ecological impacts and loss of biodiversity at local scales| but are predicted also to have cumulative large-scale consequences worldwide. Because of the scale of this problem| the continued existence of beaches as functional ecosystems is likely to depend on direct conservation efforts. Conservation| in turn| will have to increasingly draw on a consolidated body of ecological theory for these ecosystems. Although this body of theory has yet to be fully developed| we identify here a number of critical research directions that are required to progress coastal management and conservation of sandy beach ecosystems. 8151,2007,2,4,Satellite evidence of ecosystem changes in the White Sea: A semi-enclosed arctic marginal shelf sea,Recent observations suggest an arctic climate system in broad transformation| yet the regional marine-ecosystem response is poorly known. Here| we develop and analyze a comprehensive biogeophysical dataset of key water constituents - chlorophyll (chl)| suspended sediments (sm) and dissolved organic matter (doc) - using satellite ocean-color data from the White Sea in the Russian Arctic| for the period 1998 - 2004. The revealed changes in chl| sm and doc are more pronounced in the bays ( e. g.| the southeastern bay trends are - 20%| + 18% and + 11%| respectively) than in the central basin ( - 5%| + 5% and + 3%| respectively). The chlorophyll decreases reflect the impact of enhanced runoff on sm and doc| which make the water more turbid and less favourable for phytoplankton growth| in contrast to other arctic seas where increased phytoplankton is expected. This case study supports our hypothesis that the marine ecosystems of semi-enclosed arctic shelf seas respond rapidly to climate change and are thus particularly vulnerable to future global warming. 8173,2007,4,4,Scientific reticence and sea level rise,I suggest that a 'scientific reticence' is inhibiting the communication of a threat of a potentially large sea level rise. Delay is dangerous because of system inertias that could create a situation with future sea level changes out of our control. I argue for calling together a panel of scientific leaders to hear evidence and issue a prompt plain-written report on current understanding of the sea level change issue. 1527,2007,2,4,Scientists' perceptions of threats to Coral Reefs: Results of a survey of Coral Reef researchers,Prior to the 10(th) International Coral Reef Symposium in Okinawa| Japan| in June 2004| symposium participants and members of the International Society for Reef Studies were surveyed to obtain their opinions about the major threats facing coral reef ecosystems. Responses from 286 participants were analyzed and compared to results obtained in a similar survey conducted in 1993. Respondents tended to rank highest those threats associated with human population growth| coastal development| and overfishing. While coral bleaching was ranked much more highly than in the 1993 survey| about two-thirds of the respondents felt that direct human impacts were worse threats than those associated with global climate change. 8149,2007,3,3,Scoping technology options for India's oil security: Part I - ethanol for petrol,Crude oil prices recently crossed US$ 75/bbl| fuelling serious concerns whether India's rapidly expanding economy can sustain a high and growing level of crude imports. There are also serious concerns of global warming from burning of fossil fuels. It may be time for India to explore options which can substitute petrol and diesel and are climate-friendly. In a series of two articles| we examine a few such technology and policy options. Part I focus on options for substituting petrol by ethanol from sugarcane: molasses| sugarcane juice and cellulose (bagasse). Part II analyses options for diesel substitution: Fischer-Tropsch liquids from coal| and bio-diesel from oil-bearing plants like jatropha. 8223,2007,3,3,Screening of CO2 adsorbing materials for zero emission power generation systems,The global warming issue has resulted in a great demand in zero emission power generation systems. Recently a few new concepts have been proposed that promise to achieve zero emissions while delivering unprecedentedly high efficiency. In these concepts| CO2 adsorbing material (CAM) is a key component. This paper reviews briefly the current development in CO2 adsorbing material| screens the potential materials under the conditions relevant to those in zero emission power generation systems| and identifies the best candidate and the optimum operating conditions for the production of high-purity hydrogen. It is found that CaO is thermodynamically the best candidate among metal oxides for CO2 capture in zero emission power generation systems. There exists a region within which high-purity H-2 can be produced in steam methane reforming and carbon gasification. 1442,2007,2,4,Sea turtle species vary in their susceptibility to tropical cyclones,Severe climatic events affect all species| but there is little quantitative knowledge of how sympatric species react to such situations. We compared the reproductive seasonality of sea turtles that nest sympatrically with their vulnerability to tropical cyclones (in this study| "tropical cyclone" refers to tropical storms and hurricanes)| which are increasing in severity due to changes in global climate. Storm surges significantly decreased reproductive output by lowering the number of nests that hatched and the number of hatchlings that emerged from nests| but the severity of this effect varied by species. Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) began nesting earliest and most offspring hatched before the tropical cyclone season arrived| resulting in little negative effect. Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nested intermediately| and only nests laid late in the season were inundated with seawater during storm surges. Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nested last| and their entire nesting season occurred during the tropical cyclone season; this resulted in a majority (79%) of green turtle nests incubating in September| when tropical cyclones are most likely to occur. Since this timing overlaps considerably with the tropical cyclone season| the developing eggs and nests are extremely vulnerable to storm surges. Increases in the severity of tropical cyclones may cause green turtle nesting success to worsen in the future. However| published literature suggests that loggerhead turtles are nesting earlier in the season and shortening their nesting seasons in response to increasing sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change. This may cause loggerhead reproductive success to improve in the future because more nests will hatch before the onset of tropical cyclones. Our data clearly indicate that sympatric species using the same resources are affected differently by tropical cyclones due to slight variations in the seasonal timing of nesting| a key life history process. 1398,2007,2,4,Sea-level rise and drought interactions accelerate forest decline on the Gulf Coast of Florida| USA,Sea-level rise threatens low-lying coastal ecosystems globally. In Florida| USA| salinity stress due to increased tidal flooding contributes to the dramatic and well documented decline of species-rich coastal forest areas along the Gulf of Mexico. Here| we present the results of a study of coastal forest stand dynamics in thirteen 400 m(2) plots representing an elevation gradient of 0.58-1.1 m affected by tidal flooding and rising sea levels. We extended previously published data from 1992-2000 to 2005 to quantify the full magnitude of the 1998-2002 La Nina-associated drought. Populations of the dominant tree species| Sabal palmetto (cabbage palm)| declined more rapidly during 2000-2005 than predicted from linear regressions based on the 1992-2000 data. Dramatic increases in Juniperus virginiana (Southern red cedar) and S. palmetto mortality during 2000-2005 as compared with 1995-2000 are apparently due to the combined effects of a major drought and ongoing sea-level rise. Additionally| coastal forest stands continued to decline in species richness with increased tidal flooding frequency and decreasing elevation. Stable isotope (H| O) analyses demonstrate that J. virginiana accesses fresher water sources more than S. palmetto. Carbon isotopes reveal increasing delta C-13 enrichment of S. palmetto and J. virginiana with increased tidal flooding and decreased elevation| demonstrating increasing water stress in both species. Coastal forests with frequent tidal flooding are unable to support species-rich forests or support regeneration of the most salt-tolerant tree species over time. Given that rates of sea-level rise are predicted to increase and periodic droughts are expected to intensify in the future due to global climate change| coastal forest communities are in jeopardy if their inland retreat is restricted. 7830,2007,2,3,Seasonal air temperature variations retrieved from a Geladaindong ice core| Tibetan Plateau,A 70-year history of precipitation 618 0 record has been retrieved using an ice core drilled from a plat portion of the firn area in the Guoqu Glacier (33 degrees 34 '37.8 '' N| 91 degrees 10'35.3 '' E| 5720 m a.s.l.) on Mt. Gelaclainclong (the source region of Yangtze River) during October and November| 2005. Based on the seasonality of delta O-18 records and the significant positive relationships between monsoon/non-monsoon delta O-18 values and summer/spring air temperature from the nearby meteorological stations| the history of summer and spring air temperature have been reconstructed for the last 70 years. The results show that both summer and spring air temperature variations present similar trends during the last 70 years. Regression analysis indicates that the slope of the temperature-delta O-18 relationship is 1.3 degrees C/parts per thousand. for non-monsoon delta O-18 values and spring air temperature| and 0.4 degrees C/parts per thousand. for monsoon delta O-18 values and summer air temperature. Variation of air temperature recorded in the ice core is consistent with that in the Northern Hemisphere (NH)| however| the warming trend in the Gelaclainclong region is more intense than that in the NH| reflecting a higher sensitivity to global warming in the high elevation regions. In addition| warming trend is greater in spring than in summer. 8102,2007,2,4,Seasonal and spatial variations in methyl chloride in NW Atlantic waters,[1] Methyl chloride concentrations were measured in the upper 200 m of the water column of the NW Atlantic during three cruises along the same track in spring| summer and fall of 2003. Distinct seasonality was apparent| with the surface waters being either undersaturated or close to equilibrium with the atmosphere in spring| but with supersaturation of the warmer waters in summer and fall. Cooler waters at the more northerly stations were always undersaturated| thus representing a continual sink for atmospheric methyl chloride. Even on an annual basis| the concentration anomaly ( the difference between measured concentration and equilibrium with the atmosphere) was strongly dependent on sea surface temperature (SST). This empirical relationship can be used to extrapolate fluxes globally or to estimate the influence of global warming on ocean-to-atmosphere fluxes of methyl chloride. The global flux of methyl chloride to the atmosphere estimate based on the full-year relationship between concentration anomaly and SST is 17 Gmol/y| and is reduced to 6 Gmol/y if separate seasonal relationships are used. It appears that the ocean component of the flux is highly sensitive to temperature| but the actual source of the methyl chloride in ocean waters remains largely unknown. 8055,2007,3,4,Self-sufficiency of motor fuels on organic farms - Evaluation of systems based on fuels produced in industrial-scale plants,The aim of the present work was to evaluate systems for making organic farms self-sufficient in bio-based fuels. The energy efficiency and environmental load for systems based on rape methyl ester (RME)| ethanol and biogas produced by processing raw material from the farm in industrial-scale plants were evaluated using a life cycle perspective. Eventual constraints when implementing the systems in practice were also identified and the farmer's costs for the systems estimated. The RME scenario showed some good characteristics; the energy efficiency and potential effects on global warming were favourable| the technology well known and no engine modifications were necessary. However| the high price of the organically produced rapeseed made the fuel expensive. The ethanol scenario provided fuel at a comparatively low cost| but the energy efficiency was low and existing engines would have to be modified. The biogas scenario was not as economically advantageous| due to high costs for storage and transport of the biogas and the extensive tractor modifications needed. The calculations further showed that systems based on so-called exchange of fuels| i.e. when the farm produces raw material for one type of biofuel| but instead uses another type of biofuel more suitable for its own tractors| were an economically favourable way of supplying the organic farms with 'self-produced' bio-based fuels. The exchange scenario based on delivery of organic wheat to a large-scale plant and use of RME at the farm was somewhat more expensive than scenarios based on production of biogas raw material at the farm. However| the wheat/RME system has the advantage of being possible to put into practice immediately| since industrial-scale wheat ethanol plants are in operation and RME fuel is available on the market. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8111,2007,3,3,Sensitivity of the century model to scale-related soil texture variability,Sequestering C in agricultural soils presents an immediate viable option to reduce atmospheric CO2 to help mitigate global warming. Agricultural land managers who adopt practices that sequester C might market the sequestered (i.e.| stored) C as a C credit to industrial CO2 emitters who wish to reduce their net CO2 emissions. Land managers or landowners will need to verify changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) related to a change in management practice to facilitate C credit trading. The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of Century model predictions of SOC change due to the adoption of no-tillage using site-specific data and data from existing soil databases. We hypothesized that (i) using site-specific soil data would result in the most accurate Century estimates and (ii) Century estimates are sensitive to soil clay percentage. Five paired tillage/no-tillage farm sites in north-central Montana were used to test model predictions. Sites were chosen such that soil| landscape| climatic conditions| and historical cropping systems were similar within each tillage/ no-tillage pair. The Century model overestimated SOC content using site-specific soils data by an average of 10%. Century was sensitive to the effects of clay content when predicting the total amount of SOC in a particular field. There was insufficient evidence to suggest that a linear association exists between clay content and Century-estimated C change due to no-tillage. Results suggest that (i) the effect of clay percentage on the rate of C change is not well understood and (ii) the Century model is an acceptable predictor of soil C for C trading. Further examination of the relationship between soil clay content and the rate of C storage in agricultural systems is needed to determine if adjustments to the Century model are required. 7977,2007,3,2,Seven steps to curb global warming,Based on best current estimates that the world needs to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by 70% by 2050| and that there is at best a 10-year window of opportunity available to initiate the enormous changes needed| this paper proposes a set of seven self-contained steps that can be taken at a global level to tackle the problem with some prospect of success. The steps are self-financing and practicable| in that they are based on existing technologies. They involve agreement to create a new international agency charged with formulating and policing a global carbon pricing regime; a complementary step involving global monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions utilizing satellite resources; taking steps to compensate developing countries for preserving rainforest as carbon sinks; the dismantling of newly created trade barriers holding back global trade in biofuels; global promotion of a transition to renewable sources of electricity through facilitation of grid interconnections with independent power producers; a global moratorium on the building of new coal-fired power stations; and recycling of carbon revenues to promote uptake of renewable energy sources in developing countries| particularly Brazil| India and China. Taken as a group| it is argued that these steps are both necessary and sufficient. They call for institutional innovations at a global level that are politically difficult but feasible| given the magnitude of the problems addressed. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 8061,2007,2,4,Shallow lake restoration by nutrient loading reduction - some recent findings and challenges ahead,Shallow lakes respond to nutrient loading reductions. Major findings in a recent multi-lake comparison of data from lakes with long time series revealed: that a new state of equilibrium was typically reached for phosphorus (P) after 10-15 years and for nitrogen (N) after < 5-10 years; that the in-lake Total N:Total P and inorganic N:P ratios increased; that the phytoplankton and fish biomass often decreased; that the percentage of piscivores often increased as did the zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio| the contribution of Daphnia to zooplankton biomass| and cladoceran size. This indicates that enhanced resource and predator control often interact during recovery from eutrophication. So far| focus has been directed at reducing external loading of P. However| one experimental study and cross-system analyses of data from many lakes in north temperate lakes indicate that nitrogen may play a more significant role for abundance and species richness of submerged plants than usually anticipated when total phosphorus is moderate high. According to the alternative states hypothesis we should expect ecological resistance to nutrient loading reduction and P hysteresis. We present results suggesting that the two alternative states are less stable than originally anticipated. How global warming affects the water clarity of shallow lakes is debatable. We suggest that water clarity often will decrease due to either enhanced growth of phytoplankton or| if submerged macrophytes are stimulated| by reduced capacity of these plants to maintain clear-water conditions. The latter is supported by a cross-system comparison of lakes in Florida and Denmark. The proportion of small fish might increase and we might see higher aggregation of fish within the vegetation (leading to loss of zooplankton refuges)| more annual fish cohorts| more omnivorous feeding by fish and less specialist piscivory. Moreover| lakes may have prolonged growth seasons with a higher risk of long-lasting algal blooms and at places dense floating plant communities. The effects of global warming need to be taken into consideration by lake managers when setting future targets for critical loading| as these may well have to be adjusted in the future. Finally| we highlight some of the future challenges we see in lake restoration research. 7833,2007,2,4,Shifting of the life cycle and life-history traits of the fall webworm in relation to climate change,The effects of global warming on the life cycle and life-history traits of the fall webworm| Hyphantria cunea (Drury) (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae)| were investigated in Fukui| Japan. Our previous studies showed that the Fukui population had a predominantly bivoltine life cycle| but recently the life cycle has changed. In the present study| the life-history traits of individuals collected in 2002 in Fukui were clarified and compared to those in the previous studies. The lower threshold temperature for development and the thermal constant for one generation were 10.6 degrees C and 724.4 degree days| respectively. Although these developmental parameters were not investigated in the previous studies| the difference of the developmental period between the present and previous results was negligible in the larval and pupal stages at 20 degrees C. The critical photoperiod for diapause induction was 14 h 29 min at 20 degrees C and 14 h 10 min at 25 degrees C. The critical photoperiod at 25 degrees C was shortened to 14 min from that of the previous studies for individuals collected in 1995. The incidence of pupal diapause in the second generation was investigated in individuals that were collected as fourth and fifth instars in the field. Some portion of individuals averted diapause even if they were kept under a short photoperiod of L14:D10 at 25 degrees C after collection. These results| together with climate data and field observations in Fukui| suggest that at least a part of the population has three generations per year at present. This shift of the life cycle occurred within 7 years and is probably related to global warming in recent years. 1501,2007,3,4,Short-rotation forestry of birch| maple| poplar and willow in Flanders (Belgium) I - Biomass production after 4 years of tree growth,During the last three decades| oil crises| agricultural surpluses and global climate change enhanced the interest in short-rotation forestry (SRF). In this study| the biomass production of birch (Betula pendula Roth)| maple (Acer pseudoplatanus L.-Tintigny)| poplar (Populus trichocarpa x deltoides -Hoogvorst) and willow (Salix viminalis-Orm) growing under a short-rotation (SR) management system were compared after a 4 years period. The plantation was established on former agricultural land. The sandy soil had a mean pH of 4.5 and a mean carbon content of 1.0%. Survival rates after 4 years were 75.8%| 96.8%| 86.3% and 97.6% for birch| maple| poplar and willow| respectively. The mean actual annual biomass production for these four species amounted to 2.6| 1.2| 3.5 and 3.4 t DM ha(-1) yr(-1)| respectively. The large variation in biomass production at the different plots of the plantation could not be explained by the measured soil parameters. Biomass production results found here were in the lower range of values reported in literature. However| in contrast to most other studies| no weed control| fertilisation or irrigation was applied in this experiment. As marginal agricultural soils are suboptimal for the growth of poplar and willow| birch can be considered as a very interesting alternative for the establishment of SR plantations in Flanders. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7821,2007,2,4,Shrinkage of body size of small insects: A possible link to global warming?,The increase of global mean surface temperature leads to the increase of metabolic rate. This might lead to an unexpected threat from the small insect world. Global warming shrinks cell size| shorten lifespan| and accelerate evolution. The present note speculates on possible connections between allometry and E-infinity theory. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1583,2007,2,4,Sifting the future from the past: a personal assessment of trends impacting the Australian rangelands,The fore-sighting exercise undertaken at the Australian Rangeland Society Conference at Port Augusta 10 years ago in 1996 developed four scenarios: 'economic growth'| 'best practice'| 'extra green' and 'partial retreat'. These were later collapsed into two broad directions| ` looking out' (the economic rewards generated by a full application of free market policies with rangeland enterprises having strong external linkages will result in production and management efficiencies which benefit the Australian economy) and 'looking in' (rangeland Australia and its human| economic and ecological resources will be best served by the development and maintenance of strong local communities in each rangeland region). It was anticipated that ` looking out' would apply to only a few rangeland regions where pastoral production is highly valued and rangelands are resilient; ` looking in' would apply to the majority of the rangelands where other values might outweigh pastoral production in the future and where the rangeland resource is considered less resilient. Given the world's embrace of economic and trade globalisation| and the dominance in the federal sphere of one coalition government and one prime minister| it seems inevitable that across Australia the last 10 years were dominated by the ` looking out' direction| while many marginal rangelands had few options but to 'look in'. The 1996 discussions failed to appreciate fully the importance in shaping today's world of singular issues such as terrorism| global climate change| potential disease pandemics| the emergence of China and India and| in an Australian rangelands context| the continuing success of the northern beef industry. In the interim| rangelands science has produced an impressive underpinning of integrative information led both by industry investment and government funding. However| long-term resilience is still not assured in many areas of Australia's rangelands. It continues to be outpaced by those four horsemen of the ( rangelands) apocalypse: the need for growth| periodic droughts| personal gain and introduced organisms. During the next 2 decades the rangelands will be buffeted by many of the same old issues and well as obvious emerging ones. Important human-centric ones will be the tension between European and Aboriginal demographic trends| the increased economic dominance of mining| tourism and defence in the rangelands| and the 'sponge effect' of successful towns and particular enterprises. Ecological and bio-physical issues will include carbon trading| energy generation| water catchments| weeds and diseases and agricultural incursions into the northern rangelands. The broad directions of 'looking out' and 'looking in' still retain some currency for today's rangeland decision makers but are now embedded in far stronger and shifting currents that are frequently determined by global and national dynamics| rather than local issues. A distinguishing feature of the Australian rangelands is that they are still essentially intact (apart from their fauna) in a world context and may gain future ecological and economic advantage by remaining so. How to retain this status remains one of the great challenges for the next generation of Australian rangelanders. 7953,2007,2,4,Significance of trends toward earlier snowmelt runoff| Columbia and Missouri Basin headwaters| western United States,We assess changes in runoff timing over the last 55 years at 21 gages unaffected by human influences| in the headwaters of the Columbia-Missouri Rivers. Linear regression models and tests for significance that control for "false discoveries'' of many tests| combined with a conceptual runoff response model| were used to examine the detailed structure of spring runoff timing. We conclude that only about one third of the gages exhibit significant trends with time but over half of the gages tested show significant relationships with discharge. Therefore| runoff timing is more significantly correlated with annual discharge than with time. This result differs from previous studies of runoff in the western USA that equate linear time trends to a response to global warming. Our results imply that predicting future snowmelt runoff in the northern Rockies will require linking climate mechanisms controlling precipitation| rather than projecting response to simple linear increases in temperature. 1587,2007,5,4,Significant changes in subseries means and variances in an 8000-year precipitation reconstruction from tree rings in the southwestern USA,Both algorithms were applied to an 8000-year long time series of annual precipitation that was reconstructed from tree rings in the southwestern USA. One of the algorithms is the scanning t-test| which detects significant changes in subseries means (the first center moments) on various time scales. Another is the scanning F-test| which detects significant changes in subseries variances (the second center moments) on multi-time scales. Firstly| the scanning t-test identified 22 change points in subseries means and partitioned the series into 23 relatively wet| normal or dry episodes. Secondly| the scanning F-test detected 15 change points in subseries variances and divided 16 phases in comparatively steady (with smaller variance) or unsteady (with larger variance) features. Thirdly| the 23 wetness-episodes were characterized as the steady or unsteady situations by jointing the results from the scanning F-test into those from the t-test. Fourthly| the 23 episodes were compared to those in the TIC and 8180 records from cored sediments in the deep basin of the Pyramid Lake in Nevada by using a coherency analysis of the t-test between the precipitation reconstruction and the TIC or 8180 series. Fifthly| the 23 episodes were collaborated with some published papers in related studies. In addition| the 23 episodes were also compared with studies of the global climate change and with documents of climate changes in China during the same periods. As the TIC and 8180 record series are high resolution with unequal sampling intervals between 3 and 14 years| an algorithm in the scanning t-test for dealing with the unequal time intervals was developed in this study. 8142,2007,4,4,Simple climate modeling,We consider a simple climate model of global warming to help understand and constrain predictions from the more comprehensive General Circulation Models (GCMs). By using observations to constrain the climate gain factor| which presents the greatest uncertainty in GCMs| we discuss the atmosphere's response to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere in both equilibrium and time-dependent states.
1463,2007,2,3,Simulated changes in active/break spells during the Indian summer monsoon due to enhanced CO2 concentrations: assessment from selected coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models,The simulations by ten coupled GCMs under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report-4 are used to study the implication of possible global climate change on active/break spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The validation of the mean daily cycle of the summer monsoon precipitation over the Indian core region and the spatial pattern of the ISM precipitation climatology with observation suggest that six models simulate fairly well| whereas four models differ from observation. Thus| the identification of activelbreak spells is confined to six models. The sensitivity to climate change has been assessed from two experiments| namely| 1% per year CO2 increase to doubling and 1% per year CO2 increase to quadrupling. The changes in the daily mean cycle and the standard deviation of precipitation| frequency| and duration of active/break spells in future climate change are uncertain among the models and at times among two experiments. The break composite precipitation anomalies strengthen and spread moderately (significantly) in the doubled (quadrupled) CO2 experiment. Copyright (c) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. 7980,2007,3,3,Simulating greenhouse gas (GHG) allowance cost and GHG emission reduction in Western Europe,Due to the growing concern for global warming| the EU25 have implemented the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the first trading period (2005-2007)| part of the targeted GHG emission reductions presumably will have to result from a switch from coal fired electricity generation to gas fired electricity generation. It is possible to calculate the allowance cost necessary to switch a certain coal fired plant with a certain gas fired plant in the merit order. The allowance cost obtained is a so called switching point. When comparing historic European Union Allowance (EUA) prices (2005) with the corresponding historic switching points| the EUA prices were found high enough to cause a certain switch in the summer season. This finding leads to the use of switching points in establishing allowance cost profiles for several scenarios. A variable gas price profile is used in the simulation tool E-Simulate to simulate electricity generation and related GHG emissions in an eight zonal model representing Western Europe. Several GHG allowance cost profile scenarios are examined. For each scenario| electricity generation in the considered countries is clarified. The focus however lies on the GHG emission reduction potentials. These potentials are addressed for each scenario. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7952,2007,2,4,Simulating malaria model for different treatment intensities in a variable environment,The mathematical model proposed here applies to the Brazilian Amazon region| where the seasonal fluctuation of the mosquito density is clearly observed. The main vector of this region is the Anopheles darlingi| and its latent period is directly linked to the environment temperature. The mathematical model also considers different treatment levels accessible to the infected people. We believe that as the malaria treatment already exists it should be important to concentrate efforts on this theme in order to provide guidelines for the success of malaria control. The numerical simulations show the seasonal fluctuation effects and the relationship between the increase in temperature and treatment efficiency. Particularly it is shown that an increase in temperature strongly affects the latent period| reducing drastically the health care efficiency. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1576,2007,4,4,Simulating the effects of temperature on individual and population growth of Rhinoptera bonasus: a coupled bioenergetics and matrix modeling approach,Cownose rays Rhinoptera bonasus typify the K-selected life history strategy that makes their population dynamics susceptible to variation in natural and anthropogenic factors. We used an individual-based bioenergetics model| coupled to a matrix projection model| to predict how water temperatures warmer and cooler than current conditions would affect the individual growth and the population dynamics of cownose rays. The bioenergetics model simulated the daily growth| survival| and reproductive output of a cohort of female individuals from birth over their lifetime. Warmer and cooler temperature scenarios under alternative assumptions about ray movement were simulated. Under warmer conditions| daily consumption rate would have to increase by about 12 % or weights-at-age would decrease by 10 to 17 %| while under cooler conditions| daily consumption would have to decrease by about 14% or weights-at-age would increase by about 15%. Slowed individual growth under warmer water temperatures translated into slowed population growth rate| decreased net reproductive rate| longer generation time| and higher but delayed age-specific reproductive values. For example| under the scenario that resulted in the slowest individual growth rates| the population growth rate would decrease from 0.027 to 0.005 yr(-1). Population growth rates were more sensitive to variation in survival rates| especially those of mature age-classes| than to fertility rates. Our coupling of an individual-based bioenergetics model with a matrix projection model offers a potentially powerful approach for relating how| with limited to moderate information| changes in environmental variables and habitat that affect individual growth can be expressed as population-level responses. 8088,2007,2,3,Simulation of fluxes of greenhouse gases from European grasslands using the DNDC model,Agricultural management of grasslands results in sequestration and emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs| particularly CO2| N2O and CH4). Here| we used a process-based model (DNDC) to estimate the fluxes of the major GHGs from grasslands at 0.5 degrees resolution across Europe| and combined these to produce a spatially explicit estimate of the total global warming potential (GWP| expressed in CO2 equivalents). The DNDC model [Li| C.| Frolking| S.| Crocker| G.J.| Grace| P.R.| Klir| J.| Korchens| M.| Poulton| P.R.| 1997. Simulating trends in soil organic carbon in long-term experiments using the DNDC model. Geoderma 81| 45-60] simulates carbon and nitrogen cycling in agroecosystems at a sub-daily time step and consists of four interacting submodels: soil and climate (including water flow and leaching)| plant growth| decomposition| and denitrification. Input data sets for grassland area| climate| nitrogen deposition| and soil properties were collated. The typical current grassland management regime was established for ten biogeographical regions on the basis of questionnaires sent to national experts| and used to derive model input data. A 20-year simulation was carried out using DNDC for each site. Simple estimates of methane emissions from grazing livestock were made according to the IPCC Tier 1 method. Most grassland areas are net sources for GHGs in terms of total global warming potential-the beneficial effect of sequestering carbon in soil is outweighed by the emissions of N2O from soil and (predominantly) CH4 emissions from livestock. The net effect of European grasslands on GWP (emission of 23 Tg C year(-1)) corresponds to a 2.5% increase on the EU-15 fossil fuel CO2 emissions (907 Tg C year(-1)). (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1464,2007,2,4,Simulation of seasonal precipitation and raindays over Greece: a statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural networks (ANNs),A statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural network (ANN) was employed for the estimation of local changes on seasonal (winter| spring) precipitation and raindays for selected stations over Greece. Empirical transfer functions were derived between large-scale predictors from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and local rainfall parameters. Two sets of predictors were used: (1) the circulation-based 500 hPa and (2) its combination along with surface specific humidity and raw precipitation data (nonconventional predictor). The simulated time series were evaluated against observational data and the downscaling model was found efficient in generating winter and spring precipitation and raindays. The temporal evolution of the estimated variables was well captured| for both seasons. Generally| the use of the nonconventional predictors are attributed to the improvement of the simulated results. Subsequently| the present day and future changes on precipitation conditions were examined using large-scale data from the atmospheric general circulation model HadAM3P to the statistical model. The downscaled climate change signal for both precipitation and raindays| partly for winter and especially for spring| is similar to the signal from the HadAM3P direct output: a decrease of the parameters is predicted over the study area. However| the amplitude of the changes was different. Copyright (c) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society 8126,2007,2,4,Simulation of the dissolution of weathered versus unweathered limestone in carbonic acid solutions of varying strength,A simulation was undertaken within a climatic chamber to investigate limestone dissolution under varied carbonic acid (H2CO3) strengths as a possible analogue for future increases in atmospheric CO2 arising from global warming. Twenty-eight samples cut from a block of Bath (Box Hill) limestone from Somerville College| Oxford| which had been removed during restoration after 150 years in an urban environment| were weighed and placed in closed bottles of thin plastic containing varying concentrations of H2CO3. Half of the stone samples were derived from exposed surfaces of the stone block (weathered) while the others were obtained from the centre of the block on unexposed surfaces (unweathered). The purpose of this was to compare dissolution of previously weathered versus unweathered surfaces in strong (pH 4 center dot 73) versus weak (pH 6 center dot 43) solutions of H2CO3. A temperature of c. 19 degrees C was maintained within the chamber representing a plausible future temperature in Oxford for the year 2200 given current warming scenarios. The simulation lasted 25 days with a few stone samples being removed midway. Stone samples show reduced weight in all cases but one. There was greater dissolution of stone samples in a strong H2CO3 solution as conveyed by higher concentrations of total hardness and Ca2+ in the water samples as well as enhanced microscopic dissolution features identified using SEM. The simulation confirms that enhanced atmospheric CO2 under global warming| given adequate moisture| will accelerate dissolution rates particularly of newly replaced limestone building stones. However| previously weathered surfaces| such as those on historical stone exposed for a century or more| appear to be less susceptible to the effects of such increased rainfall acidity. Conservation techniques which remove weathered surfaces| such as stone cleaning| may accelerate future decay of historical limestone structures by increasing their susceptibility to dissolution. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 8259,2007,2,4,Size and structure of bacterial| fungal and nematode communities along an Antarctic environmental gradient,The unusually harsh environmental conditions of terrestrial Antarctic habitats result in ecosystems with simplified trophic structures| where microbial processes are especially dominant as drivers of soil-borne nutrient cycling. We examined soil-borne Antarctic communities (bacteria| fungi and nematodes) at five locations along a southern latitudinal gradient from the Falkland Islands (51 degrees S) to the base of the Antarctic Peninsula (72 degrees S)| and compared principally vegetated vs. fell-field locations at three of these sites. Results of molecular (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis| real-time PCR)| biochemical (ergosterol| phospholipid fatty acids) and traditional microbiological (temperature- and medium-related CFU) analyses were related to key soil and environmental properties. Microbial abundance generally showed a significant positive relationship with vegetation and vegetation-associated soil factors (e.g. water content| organic C| total N). Microbial community structure was mainly related to latitude or location and latitude-dependent factors (e.g. mean temperature| NO3| pH). Furthermore| strong interactions between vegetation cover and location were observed| with the effects of vegetation cover being most pronounced in more extreme sites. These results provide insight into the main drivers of microbial community size and structure across a range of terrestrial Antarctic and sub-Antarctic habitats| potentially serving as a useful baseline to study the impact of predicted global warming on these unique and pristine ecosystems. 1590,2007,2,4,Slowest to fastest: Extreme range in lichen growth rates supports their use as an indicator of climate change in Antarctica,Global temperature rise is suggested to be greater and more rapid in polar regions. There has been a clear temperature rise of 0.056 degrees C y(-1) in the Antarctic Peninsula and this has led to changes in higher plant extent and range. In the more extreme environments of the main continent the vegetation is scattered and composed of lichens and mosses. There is interest in the possible effects of global climate change on these communities acting through changes in temperature and precipitation. Lichens have been extensively used to date the substrates on which they are growing using the techniques of lichenometry. The slow growth and longevity of lichens particularly suites them for this use. We present evidence that there appears to be a substantial (two orders of magnitude) cline in lichen growth rate from the warmer| wetter and more productive Peninsula to the cold Dry Valleys at 77 degrees S latitude. The differences in growth rate reflect the precipitation and temperature regimes at the different sites. The large range in growth rates coupled with the simplicity of measuring lichen growth using modern techniques suggests that this could be an excellent tool for the detection of climate change in continental Antarctica. (C) 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 1480,2007,2,4,Small mountain glacier shrinkage at the century time-scale: an example in the French western Alps.,This paper reports on small mountain glacier variations in the northern Belledonne region (French Alps). Between 1926 and 2006| the evolution is surveyed using remote-sensing techniques. Then| it is correlated with climate data for the same period. In the late 1920s and in 1980| there was a maximum extent of the glaciers. The 1980 surge is due to high precipitations during the late 1970s| a similar trend being punctually observed in 1993. Between 1980 and 2003| the Rocher Blanc glaciers have strongly receded| their total surface being divided by ten. From 1997 onward| the large retreat can be explained by the increase of the mean daily temperature| especially the minimum daily temperature. Moreover| unusually high temperatures have been registered during the summer 2003 heat wave. Small mountain glaciers appear to be more sensitive to climate change than larger ones. Their surfaces change within 6 to 12 months. 1383,2007,3,3,Social and economic impacts of carbon sequestration and land use change on peasant households in rural China: A case study of Liping| Guizhou Province,Numerous innovative approaches to mitigate effects of excessive emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) on global climate change are being proposed and formulated. Sequestering carbon to terrestrial ecosystems represents one of the important clean development mechanisms. Reforestation through converting various non-forest lands to forests is undoubtedly an important dimension of carbon sequestration. Using Liping County in Guizhou Province as a case region| this study examines the perceived change in social and economic livelihoods of peasants and the factors responsible for the variations in the changes. The results of the study reveal that socioeconomic changes associated with the government-financed project are Multifaceted and profound. Because of the financial subsidies provided by the central government| this environmental action in many aspects can be regarded as a poverty reduction measure in the underdeveloped area where rural poverty is widespread. A majority of peasant households have benefited from project participation. The land conversion project with continued financial support also contributes to the social transformations of traditional rural society in remote areas to a more mobile| less subsistence agriculture-based| and open society. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1544,2007,3,3,Soil carbon and nitrogen stores and storage potential as affected by land-use in an agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China,Equilibrium carbon stock is the result of a balance between inputs and outflows to the pool. Changes in land-use are likely to alter such balance| resulting in different carbon stores under different land-use types in addition to the impacts of global climate change. In an agro-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia| northern China| we investigated productivity and belowground carbon and nitrogen stores under six different types of land-uses| namely free grazing (FG)| grazing exclusion (GE)| mowing (MW)| corn plantation (CP)| fallow (FL)| and alfalfa pasture (AP)| and their impacts on litter and fine roots in semiarid grassland ecosystems. We found that there were great variations in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) across the six land-use types| with CP having markedly high ANPP; the FG had significantly reduced soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen stores (SON) to 100 cm depth compared with all other types of land uses| while very little litter accumulation was found on sites of the FG and CP. The top 20 cm of soils accounted for about 80% of the root carbon and nitrogen| with very little roots being found below 50 cm. About 60% of SOC and SON were stored in the top 30 cm layer. Land-use change altered the inputs of organic matters| thus affecting SOC and SON stores accordingly; the MW and GE sites had 59 and 56% more SOC and 61% more SON than the FG. Our estimation suggested that restoring severely degraded and overgrazed grasslands could potentially increase SOC and SON stores by more than 55%; conversion from the native grasses to alfalfa could potentially double the aboveground biomass production| and further increase SOC and SON stores by more than 20%. Our study demonstrated significant carbon and nitrogen storage potential of the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China through land-use changes and improved management in the context of mitigating global climate change. 7865,2007,3,2,Soil carbon budget in a single-cropping paddy field with rice straw application and water management based on soil redox potential,An ideal state for agroecosystems to mitigate global warming should include both decreasing CO2 and CH4 emissions and increasing soil carbon storage. Two-year field experiments were carried out to examine the effects of water management (continuous flooding [CF] and Eh control [EH]) and rice straw management (application [+S] and removal [-S]) on the soil carbon budget in a single-cropping paddy field in Japan. The EH water management based on soil redox potential that the authors have proposed decreased the total CH4 emission during the rice growing period compared with CF. The +S increased CO2 emission as soil respiration during the non-flooded fallow period compared with -S| but also increased straw residues in the soil. However| there was little evidence for sequential carbon accumulation in the soil over the year by +S. The resultant annual budget of soil carbon was a loss of 32-103 g C m(-2) in the EH+S treatment compared with a loss of 166-188 g C m(-2) in the CF-S treatment. Taking into account the global warming potentials| the EH+S treatment also decreased the total CO2-equivalent emission compared with the CF-S treatment. Consequently| a combination of appropriate water management and straw application will be an effective option in decreasing both CO2-equivalent emission and sustaining soil carbon storage. 7943,2007,3,4,Soil greenhouse gas fluxes and global warming potential in four high-yielding maize systems,Crop intensification is often thought to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions| but studies in which crop management is optimized to exploit crop yield potential are rare. We conducted a field study in eastern Nebraska| USA to quantify GHG emissions| changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and the net global warming potential (GWP) in four irrigated systems: continuous maize with recommended best management practices (CC-rec) or intensive management (CC-int) and maize-soybean rotation with recommended (CS-rec) or intensive management (CS-int). Grain yields of maize and soybean were generally within 80-100% of the estimated site yield potential. Large soil surface carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes were mostly associated with rapid crop growth| high temperature and high soil water content. Within each crop rotation| soil CO2 efflux under intensive management was not consistently higher than with recommended management. Owing to differences in residue inputs| SOC increased in the two continuous maize systems| but decreased in CS-rec or remained unchanged in CS-int. N2O emission peaks were mainly associated with high temperature and high soil water content resulting from rainfall or irrigation events| but less clearly related to soil NO3-N levels. N2O fluxes in intensively managed systems were only occasionally greater than those measured in the CC-rec and CS-rec systems. Fertilizer-induced N2O emissions ranged from 1.9% to 3.5% in 2003| from 0.8% to 1.5% in 2004 and from 0.4% to 0.5% in 2005| with no consistent differences among the four systems. All four cropping systems where net sources of GHG. However| due to increased soil C sequestration continuous maize systems had lower GWP than maize-soybean systems and intensive management did not cause a significant increase in GWP. Converting maize grain to ethanol in the two continuous maize systems resulted in a net reduction in life cycle GHG emissions of maize ethanol relative to petrol-based gasoline by 33-38%. Our study provided evidence that net GHG emissions from agricultural systems can be kept low when management is optimized toward better exploitation of the yield potential. Major components for this included (i) choosing the right combination of adopted varieties| planting date and plant population to maximize crop biomass productivity| (ii) tactical water and nitrogen (N) management decisions that contributed to high N use efficiency and avoided extreme N2O emissions| and (iii) a deep tillage and residue management approach that favored the build-up of soil organic matter from large amounts of crop residues returned. 8058,2007,3,4,Soil organic carbon accumulation and carbon costs related to tillage| cropping systems and nitrogen fertilization in a subtropical Acrisol,Conservation management systems can improve soil organic matter stocks and contribute to atmospheric C mitigation. This study was carried out in a 18-year long-term experiment conducted on a subtropical Acrisol in Southern Brazil to assess the potential of tillage systems [conventional tillage (CT) and no-till (NT)]| cropping systems [oat/maize (O/M)| vetch/maize (V/M) and oat + vetch/maize + cowpea (OV/MC)] and N fertilization [0 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) (0 N) and 180 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) (180 N)] for mitigating atmospheric C. For that| the soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation and the C equivalent (CE) costs of the investigated management systems were taken into account in comparison to the CT O/M 0 N used as reference system. No-till is known to produce a less oxidative environment than CT and resulted in SOC accumulation| mainly in the 0-5 cm soil layer| at rates related to the addition of crop residues| which were increased by legume cover crops and N fertilization. Considering the reference treatment| the SOC accumulation rates in the 0-20 cm layer varied from 0.09 to 0.34 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) in CT and from 0.19 to 0.65 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) in NT. However| the SOC accumulation rates peaked during the first years (5th to 9th) after the adoption of the management practices and decreased exponentially over time| indicating that conservation soil management was a short-term strategy for atmospheric C mitigation. On the other hand| when the CE costs of tillage operations were taken into account| the benefits of NT to C mitigation compared to CT were enhanced. When CE costs related to N-based fertilizers were taken into account| the increases in SOC accumulation due to N did not necessarily improve atmospheric C mitigation| although this does not diminish the agricultural and economic importance of inorganic N fertilization. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1382,2007,3,3,Soil organic carbon decomposition and carbon pools in temperate and sub-tropical forests in China,Decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) is a critical component of the global carbon cycle| and accurate estimates of SOC decomposition are important for forest carbon modeling and ultimately for decision making relative to carbon sequestration and mitigation of global climate change. We determined the major pools of SOC in four sites representing major forest types in China: temperate forests at Changbai Mountain (CBM) and Qilian Mountain (QLM)| and sub-tropical forests at Yujiang (YJ) and Liping (LP) counties. A 90-day laboratory incubation was conducted to measure CO2 evolution from forest soils from each site| and data from the incubation study were fitted to a three-pool first-order model that separated mineralizable soil organic carbon into active (C-a)| slow (C-s) and resistant (C-r) carbon pools. Results indicate that: (1) the rate of SOC decomposition in the sub-tropical zone was faster than that in the temperature zone| (2) The C-a pool comprised similar to 1-3 % of SOC with an average mean residence time (MRT) of 219 days. The C-s pool comprised similar to 25-65% with an average MRT of 78 yr. The C-r pool accounted for similar to 35-80% of SOC| (3) The YJ site in the sub-tropical zone had the greatest C-a pool and the lowest MRT| while the QLM in the temperature zone had the greatest MRT for both the C-a and C-s pools. The results suggest a higher capacity for long-term C sequestration as SOC in temperature forests than in subtropical forests. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8021,2007,2,4,Soil organic carbon dynamics along a climatic gradient in a southern Appalachian spruce-fir forest,A field study was conducted in a high-elevation spruce-fir (Picea rubens Sarg. - Abies fraseri (Pursh.) Poir) forest in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park to assess the effect of temperature on soil C storage and dynamics. In eight plots along an elevation gradient (1500-1900 m)| we measured soil temperature| forest floor and mineral soil C| litter decomposition| soil respiration| and forest floor mean residence time. Mean annual soil temperature and annual degree-days above 5 degrees C were inversely correlated with elevation. Total soil C (166-241 Mg-ha(-1)) showed no trend with elevation| while forest floor C accumulation (16.3-35.9 Mg-ha(-1)) decreased significantly with elevation. Carbon dynamics did not follow a consistent elevation pattern; however| the cooler upper elevations showed the lowest C turnover as indicated by the lowest needle decomposition rate (k = 0.0231.year(-)1) and the longest mean residence time of forest floor C (22 years). Mean annual CO2 efflux from the soil (1020-1830 kg C.ha(-1).year(-1)) was negatively correlated with mean annual soil temperatures and annual degree-days above 5 degrees C. This gradient study offers useful insights into C release patterns under future warming scenarios| and suggests that the highest elevation may be most susceptible to global warming. 8070,2007,2,4,Soil organic carbon storage and soil CO(2) flux in the alpine meadow ecosystem,High-resolution sampling| measurements of organic carbon contents and (14)C signatures of selected four soil profiles in the Haibei Station situated on the northeast Tibetan Plateau| and application of (14)C tracing technology were conducted in an attempt to investigate the turnover times of soil organic carbon and the soil-CO(2) flux in the alpine meadow ecosystem. The results show that the organic carbon stored in the soils varies from 22.12x10(4) kg C hm(-2) to 30.75x10(4) kg C hm(-2) in the alpine meadow ecosystems| with an average of 26.86x10(4) kg C hm(-2). Turnover times of organic carbon pools increase with depth from 45 a to 73 a in the surface soil horizon to hundreds of years or millennia or even longer at the deep soil horizons in the alpine meadow ecosystems. The soil-CO(2) flux ranges from 103.24 g C m(-2) a(-1) to 254.93 gC m(-2) a(-1)| with an average of 191.23 g C m(-2) a(-1). The CO(2) efflux produced from microbial decomposition of organic matter varies from 73.3 g C m(-2) a(-1) to 181 g C m(-2) a(-1). More than 30% of total soil organic carbon resides in the active carbon pool and 72.8%. 81.23% of total CO(2) emitted from organic matter decomposition results from the topsoil horizon (from 0 cm to 10 cm) for the Kobresia meadow. Responding to global warming| the storage| volume of flow and fate of the soil organic carbon in the alpine meadow ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau will be changed| which needs further research. 8156,2007,2,4,Soil physical properties and their relations to organic carbon pools as affected by land use in an alpine pastureland,Land disturbances (such as cultivation and overgrazing) and global warming have been decreasing soil organic C stocks in alpine regions of China. This study characterized changes in soil aggregation| bulk density| particle density| porosity and water holding capacity in relation to changes in total organic C and carbohydrate-C fractions under a long-term (28 years) annually-cultivated pasture (oats)| and a short-term (8 years) introduced perennial pasture (cultivated once at establishment)| compared with those in an adjacent native pasture. In annually-cultivated pasture| total soil organic C decreased by 29-41% and various fractions of carbohydrate-C decreased by 33-49% (concentrated acid extract)| 14-45% (diluted acid extract) and 15-40% (hot water extract) in 0-30 cm depths. To a similar extent| introduced perennial pasture significantly decreased total soil organic C and various carbohydrate-C fractions only at 0-10 cm depth. Upon cultivation of native pasture for hay| soil aggregate stability (expressed as mean weight diameter| MWD) significantly decreased by 27-54% at 0-30 cm depth| with macro-aggregates (> 0.5-5 mm) tending to form micro-aggregates (< 0.25 mm) when subjected to wet sieving of various duration. Perennial pasture induced a similar magnitude of aggregate degradation in soil. The induced decrease in carbohydrate-C was responsible for the aggregate degradation mainly at 0-10 cm depth but not at 10-30 cm. Soil particle density was significantly affected by land use at all depths| whereas bulk density and porosity were significantly affected by land use only when averaged across all depths. Annual and perennial pastures significantly decreased soil water holding capacity in comparison with the native pasture. Generally| soil bulk density and particle density increased with depth| and porosity and water holding capacity decreased with depth. Significant correlations were found between total organic C and bulk density| particle density| porosity and water holding capacity. This study suggests that| besides depleting soil organic C pools| the current land use and management changes had adversely affected important soil physical properties| potentially accelerating erosion and reducing soil infiltration and water retention| thus threatening alpine soil's ecological functions in the region. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8112,2007,2,4,Soil respiration in a subtropical savanna parkland: Response to water additions,Soil respiration (SR) is controlled by abiotic parameters (temperature| water availability) interacting with biotic characteristics of the vegetation (quantity and quality of litter inputs| root respiration) and the soil microbial community. Because SR is a major flux in the C cycle| it is important to understand how vegetation change may interact with predicted climate changes to alter SR and ecosystem C storage. We quantified the SR response to increased soil water availability in a subtropical savanna parkland in the Rio Grande Plains of southern Texas. Diel SR was measured monthly from July 1996 to August 1997 in control and irrigated plots located in grasslands and in three contrasting woody plant communities known to have developed on grassland during the past 100 yr. Irrigation increased SR in all plant community types. Soil respiration in woody communities was higher (12.7 g CO2 m(-2) d(-1) averaged across months and treatments) and more responsive (+103%) to increased water availability than grasslands (9-8 9 CO2 m(-2) d(-1) and +48%| respectively). This SR pattern is probably the result of woody communities having greater soil microbial biomass| soil C Pools| and root biomass than adjacent grasslands. Irrigation increased the sensitivity of SR to temperature (Q(10) = 1.6 and 2.6 for control and irrigated plots| respectively)| but Q(10) values were similar in woody communities and grasslands. Results suggest SR is water limited| that sensitivity of SR to soil moisture availability increases with increasing woody plant abundance| and that shifts from grass to shrub dominance may have little impact on SR response to the changes in temperature projected to accompany global warming. 7804,2007,2,3,Soils and runaway global warming: Terra incognita,Increased release of carbon by world soils could drastically exacerbate atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO|) levels| leading to accelerated global warming and eventually to a positive feedback mechanism that might cause climate change to get completely out of hand. [...] the development of a new generation of mathematical models of soil ecosystems| needed to predict future soil carbon losses and their feedback on climate change with reasonable accuracy| will probably require the use| possibly even the creation| of mathematical tools radically different than those embodied in current models.
8296,2007,3,4,Solid waste management systems assessment: The municipality's point-of-view,The objective of the paper is to present sustainability indicators for municipal solid waste management (MSWM). Sustainability implies environmental| economic and social acceptance. The complexity of the system-in-focus requires the employment of a systems (or cybernetic) approach: Acceptance implies clear objectives| from a specific point of view (here| the viewpoint of the municipal administration is taken)| over a time horizon covering at least two generations| a life-cycle consideration| clear evaluation criteria for alternative MSWM systems| and finally specific and measurable indicators of the degree to which the objectives have been met. In this paper| a number of specific environmental indicators (abiotic depletion| human toxicity| global warming| acidification| eutrophication| photo-oxidant formation| etc.)| economic indicators (cost per ton or per household or per person| revenue from recovered material and energy| MSWM system cost as % of GNP of the city| diversion between revenue and expenditures for MSWM| cost per capita as % of minimum wage| subsidies per person) and social indicators (odor| visual impact| comfort| required or used-up space| noise| system complexity| employment quality| etc.) are suggested for measuring the performance of municipal SWM systems. Specific real application is mentioned for a Greek city. 7985,2007,3,3,Solubility of carbon dioxide in 2-methylbutyric| 2-methylvaleric and 2-methylhexanoic ester oils,Carbon dioxide (CO2) can be considered at present as the most promising alternative natural refrigerant. As a matter of fact| synthetic refrigerants widely contribute to the greenhouse effect when directly emitted into the atmosphere| since they are characterised by high global warming potential (GWP)| and therefore they are amongst the fluids controlled by the Kyoto Protocol. An unsolved technical problem with this refrigerant is the selection of the most suitable lubricant for each application. A good lubricant must contemporarily lubricate the mechanical moving parts of the compressor and be soluble in the refrigerant so to ensure the return of oil to the compressor. Moreover| the presence of oil is affecting the heat exchange| especially in the evaporators. To properly select the lubricant and design the refrigeration system taking into account these problems| a better knowledge of the thermodynamic behaviour of the CO2 + lubricant system| with particular attention to the mutual solubility| is then required. Unfortunately| only few experimental data are available in the literature and they frequently refer to commercial oils with unknown composition. These data are not sufficient to build thermodynamic models able to predict the behaviour of the considered systems. For this reason| some pure ester oils| i.e. 2-methylbutyric ester oil| 2-methylvaleric ester oil and 2-methylhexanoic ester oil| were considered as pure precursors for commercial polyolester lubricants (POE)| and the solubility Of CO2 in these oils was measured at a temperature of 283 K. The experiments have been performed in an apparatus specifically built for solubility measurements. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7817,2007,4,2,Some features of climate change on Earth and its possible relation to solar-activity variations,The global warming on Earth during the last century has been discussed in many studies. The most significant factors of climate change are the increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases| catastrophic eruptions of volcanoes| and variations in the solar activity. In this paper| we consider the character of climate change and its possible relation to solar-activity variations using the data of the global network of meteorological stations on temperature variations in different regions across the globe from 1880 and information about variations in the relative sunspot number over the last 300 years and temporal variations in the total solar irradiation. We found that the annual mean sunspot number increased on average by about 0.2% per year in both 11-year and secular cycles. The increase in the globally averaged surface air temperature in the period 1880-2004 was Delta t = 0.61 +/- 0.04 degrees C. The difference in Delta t calculated for periods with different solar-activity levels in 11-year cycles was estimated. This difference was most clearly revealed over land at high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The medians of the distributions of the annual mean surface air temperature over land| ocean| and over the entire globe in years with high solar activity in the secular cycle are significantly greater than the corresponding values related to the years of low solar activity. Noticeable falls in temperature (by similar to 0.1-0.2 degrees C) through similar to 1900-1920 and 1945-1980 are likely to be associated with the radiation balance perturbation caused by a large number of catastrophic volcanic eruptions during these periods. A considerable warming during the last three decades is most probably due to the substantial growth in the rate of carbon dioxide input to the atmosphere and the corresponding large increase in its concentration. The importance of this factor of global warming becomes even greater if we bear in mind that the solar activity in the secular cycle declines after 1970. 8350,2007,2,4,Some Foci of Integrated Water Resources Management in the"South" which are oft-forgotten by the "North": A perspective from southern Africa,Following some definitions of IWRM within a context of integrated catchment management| and a summary of the major goals and strategies as well as scale considerations in IWRM| this paper highlights some differences between IWRM in Lesser Developed Countries (LDCs)| i.e. the so-called "South"| and Developed Countries (DCs)| i.e. the so-called "North"| by outlining characteristics of DCs and LDCs which shape their respective needs in IWRM. Thereafter inherent problems in regard to IWRM in LDCs are identified. This is followed by examples from four case studies in southern African catchments which focus on some of the uniquenesses of IWRM issues in LDCs which| in the author's experiences| are often forgotten by theorists and practitioners from the "North"|viz.that while catchment studies tend to emphasise mainstem river discharge characteristics|these are not the sources of rural water supply problems in LDCs (a case study from the Thukela HELP catchment in South Africa); water poverty is acute in many meso-scale catchments and is likely to be exacerbated by global warming (again| a case study from the Thukela catchment); water quality problems for the rural poor| who are still without potable water supplies| frequently revolve around the biological health of rivers| rather than those related to chemical or physical water quality (a case study from the Mgeni catchment in South Africa); and climate change may have severe impacts on both within-country reservoir management and out-of-country outflow obligations to downstream countries on already stressed catchments dominated by high water demanding irrigated crops (a case study from theMbuluzi catchment in Swaziland). In each case study simulation modelling has been used as a tool in IWRM. A concluding section therefore focuses on some selected problems which have been identified by the author in regard to hydrological modelling in LDCs. These revolve around issues of governance| human resources and practicalities. 8176,2007,2,4,Source components and interannual variability of soil CO(2) efflux under experimental warming and clipping in a grassland ecosystem,Partitioning soil CO(2) efflux into autotrophic (R(A)) and heterotrophic (R(H)) components is crucial for understanding their differential responses to climate change. We conducted a long-term experiment (2000-2005) to investigate effects of warming 2 degrees C and yearly clipping on soil CO(2) efflux and its components (i.e. R(A) and R(H)) in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem. Interannual variability of these fluxes was also examined. Deep collars (70 cm) were inserted into soil to measure R(H). R(A) was quantified as the difference between soil CO(2) efflux and R(H). Warming treatment significantly stimulated soil CO(2) efflux and its components (i.e. R(A) and R(H)) in most years. In contrast| yearly clipping significantly reduced soil CO(2) efflux only in the last 2 years| although it decreased R(H) in every year of the study. Temperature sensitivity (i.e. apparent Q(10) values) of soil CO(2) efflux was slightly lower under warming (P > 0.05) and reduced considerably by clipping (P < 0.05) compared with that in the control. On average over the 4 years| R(H) accounted for approximately 65% of soil CO(2) efflux with a range from 58% to 73% in the four treatments. Over seasons| the contribution of R(H) to soil CO(2) efflux reached a maximum in winter (similar to 90%) and a minimum in summer (similar to 35%). Annual soil CO(2) efflux did not vary substantially among years as precipitation did. The interannual variability of soil CO(2) efflux may be mainly caused by precipitation distribution and summer severe drought. Our results suggest that the effects of warming and yearly clipping on soil CO(2) efflux and its components did not result in significant changes in R(H) or R(A) contribution| and rainfall timing may be more important in determining interannual variability of soil CO(2) efflux than the amount of annual precipitation. 7933,2007,2,4,Southern Hemisphere cyclones and anticyclones: Recent trends and links with decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean,The aim of this paper is to study the association between the extratropical Southern Hemisphere and the decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean (PO). We discuss a pattern of coherent large-scale anomalies and trends in cyclone and anticyclone behaviour in light of the climate variability in the PO over the ERA40 reanalysis period (1957-2002). The two representative PO indices are the Pacific Decadal and Interdecadal Oscillations (PDO and IPO)| and here the PDO is chosen owing to it being less associated with the southern oscillation index (SOI). Composites of the indicators of the density and intensity of cyclones/anticyclones given by an automatic tracking scheme were calculated for the years when the PDOI was more than one standard deviation above or below its mean. Although the ERA40 is not free from noise and assimilation changes| the results show a large-scale feature| which seems to be robust and agrees with earlier studies using different data sets. The sea-level pressure shows a strong annular structure related to the PDO| which is not seen for the SOI| with lower pressure around Antarctica during the positive phase and vice versa. More intense (and fewer) cyclones and anticyclones were observed during the positive PDO. This is less consistent for the SOI| particularly during the summer when a different PDO/SOI pattern arises at high latitudes. The trends project a pattern coincident with the positive PDO phase and seem to be linked with the main climate shift in the late seventies. Trends observed over the Tasman Sea are consistent with declining winter rainfall over southeastern Australia. Most patterns are statistically significant and seem robust| but random changes in ENSO may play a part| to a certain degree| in modulating the results| and a physical mechanism of causality has not been demonstrated. Although global warming and related changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) may also help explain the observed behaviour| the large-scale response presented here provides a new insight and would be of considerable interest for further modelling studies. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society. 1524,2007,2,4,Spatial and temporal effects of pre-seeding plates with invasive ascidians: Growth| recruitment and community composition,Many shallow water subtidal habitats in Massachusetts| USA have recently been invaded by five non-indigenous ascidian species: Ascidiella aspersa| Botrylloides violaceus| Didemnum sp.| Diplosoma listerianum and Styela clava. This study examined the effects of seawater temperature| as a proxy for climate change| on B. violaceus and D. listerianum and the impact these ascidians have on native sessile fouling communities. Field experiments were conducted over a four month period at two locations (Lynn and Woods Hole| MA) to examine growth dynamics over regional thermal and geographic ranges. Invasive ascidians occupied as much as 80% of the primary substratum and accounted for the majority of species richness. B. violaceus and D. listerianum growth were similar at both study sites| but initial colony growth of D. listerianum was positively affected by temperature. B. violaceus and D. listerianum exhibited rapid two-week growth rates during the summer months with more rapid growth at the warmer Woods Hole site. Competition for space between B. violaceus and D. listerianum typically resulted in neutral borders between colonies. Overgrowth occurred if the colony of one species was disproportionably larger than the colony of the other species. Recruitment and growth of native species influenced the long-term composition of experimental communities more than the pre-seeding with B. violaceus or D. listerianum colonies. Elevated temperatures| however| increased initial growth of B. violaceus and D. listerianum and may have facilitated the species success to invade the communities during crucial periods of introduction. With projected global climate change| a rise in sea surface temperatures may exacerbate the cumulative impacts of invasions on benthic communities and facilitate the invasion of other non-native ascidian species. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8264,2007,3,4,Spatial and temporal variation of nitrous oxide and methane flux between subtropical mangrove sediments and the atmosphere,We quantified spatial and temporal variations of the fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) and associated abiotic sediment parameters across a subtropical river estuary sediment dominated by grey mangrove (Avicennia marina). N2O and CH4 fluxes from sediment were measured adjacent to the river ("fringe") and in the mangrove forest ("forest") at 3-h intervals throughout the day during autumn| winter and summer. N2O fluxes from sediment ranged from an average of -4 mu g to 65 mu g N2O m(-2) h(-1) representing N2O sink and emission. CH4 emissions varied by several orders of magnitude from 3 mu g to 17.4 mg CH(4)m(-2) h(-1). Fluxes of N2O and CH4 differed significantly between sampling seasons| as well as between fringe and forest positions. In addition| N2O flux differed significantly between time of day of sampling. Higher bulk density and total carbon content in sediment were significant contributors towards decreasing N2O emission; rates of N2O emission increased with less negative sediment redox potential (E-h). Porewater profiles of nitrate plus nitrite (NOx-) suggest that denitrification was the major process of nitrogen transformation in the sediment and possible contributor to N2O production. A significant decrease in CH4 emission was observed with increasing Eh| but higher sediment temperature was the most significant variable contributing to CH4 emission. From April 2004 to July 2005| sediment levels of dissolved ammonium| nitrate| and total carbon content declined| most likely from decreased input of diffuse nutrient and carbon sources upstream from the study site; concomitantly average CH4 emissions decreased significantly. On the basis of their global warming potentials| N2O and CH4 fluxes| expressed as CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) emissions| showed that CH4 emissions dominated in summer and autumn seasons (82-98% CO2-e emissions)| whereas N2O emissions dominated in winter (67-95% of CO2-e emissions) when overall CO2-e emissions were low. Our study highlights the importance of seasonal N2O contributions| particularly when conditions driving CH4 emissions may be less favourable. For the accurate upscaling of N2O and CH4 flux to annual rates| we need to assess relative contributions of individual trace gases to net CO2-e emissions| and the influence of elevated nutrient inputs and mitigation options across a number of mangrove sites or across regional scales. This requires a careful sampling design at site-level that captures the potentially considerable temporal and spatial variation of N2O and CH4 emissions. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7937,2007,2,4,Spatial and temporal variations of two cyprinids in a subtropical mountain reserve - a result of habitat disturbance,We investigated the variations of population of two cyprinids| Varicorhinus alticorpus and Varicorhinus barbatulus| using long-term survey data (1995-2004) in the subtropical island of Taiwan. Fish abundance data showed that at the mainstem stations| V barbatulus which used to dominate in the higher altitude had declined significantly| while V alticorpus that used to occupy only the lower altitude had spread upward. However| at the tributaries| trend of the populations of V barbatulus were not significantly different over time| while populations of V alticorpus were absent at higher altitude but began to increase at lower altitude. Environmental parameters revealed that sporadic high turbidity was observed at the mainstem stations| but not at the tributaries. Images taken before and after typhoon also showed habitat destruction by debris flow at the mainstem stations. As some models predicted that suitable fish habitats will shrink because of increasing water temperature due to global warming| we showed that fish distribution may be affected by habitat disturbance due to intensified storms sooner than the actual increase of water temperature. 1506,2007,2,4,Spatio-temporal patterns of juvenile marine turtle occurrence in waters of the European continental shelf,We present data spanning approximately 100 years regarding the spatial and temporal occurrence of marine turtle sightings and strandings in the northeast Atlantic from two public recording schemes and demonstrate potential signals of changing population status. Records of loggerhead (n = 317) and Kemp's ridley (n = 44) turtles occurring on the European continental shelf were most prevalent during the autumn and winter| when waters were coolest. In contrast| endothermic leatherback turtles (n = 1|668) were most common during the summer. Analysis of the spatial distribution of hard-shell marine turtle sightings and strandings highlights a pattern of decreasing records with increasing latitude. The spatial distribution of sighting and stranding records indicates that arrival in waters of the European continental shelf is most likely driven by North Atlantic current systems. Future patterns of spatial-temporal distribution| gathered from the periphery of juvenile marine turtles habitat range| may allow for a broader assessment of the future impacts of global climate change on species range and population size. 8346,2007,2,4,Species composition| diversity and density of plagic Ostracoda in the East China Sea,On the basis of seasonal investigations at 23 degrees 30' similar to 33 degrees 00'N| 118 degrees 30' similar to 128 degrees 00'E of the East China Sea during 1997 similar to 2000| dynamics on the density and diversity of Ostracoda was discussed. Results showed that totally 26 species were identified. The Ostracoda diversity was opposite to the change of its density in most seasons which reflected an uneven assignment of Ostracoda density among its different species. The Ostracoda density was 0.70 ind./m(3) in spring| 1.72 ind./m(3) in summer| 2.57 ind./m(3) in autumn and 0.90 ind./m(3) in winter. Euconchoecia chierchiae in spring and winter| Euconchoecia maimai in summer and Cypridina dentata in autumn were main dominant species in each season. The Ostracoda density did not show an obvious linear relationship with the hydrologic factors in summer and autumn| but was related to the surface salinity in spring and the surface temperature in winter. Its high density areas mainly distributed in the north offshore in all the seasons while in the south offshore in winter and in spring| and the south nearshore in summer and autumn| implied the zooplankton was a typical warm water animal| whose high density distribution in autumn were located in a similar position to Todarodes pacificus| Navodon Septentrionalis| Scomber japonicus and other fishes in the sea| so as to be an important indicator for fishing ground. The main species dominating in Ostracoda now are different from the species twenty years ago probably attributes to global warming. 1594,2007,2,4,Species richness of migratory birds is influenced by global climate change,Aim Global climate change is increasingly influencing ecosystems. Long-term effects on the species richness and composition of ecological communities have been predicted using modelling approaches but| so far| hardly demonstrated in the field. Here| we test whether changes in the composition of bird communities have been influenced by recent climate change. Location Europe. Methods We focus on the proportion of migratory and resident bird species because these groups are expected to respond differently to climatic change. We used the spatial relationship between climatic factors and bird communities in Europe to predict changes in 21 European bird communities under recent climate change. Results Observed changes corresponded significantly to predicted changes and could not be explained by the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Alternative factors such as changes in land use were tested in a first approximation as well but no effects were found. Main Conclusions This study demonstrates that global climate change has already influenced the species richness and composition of European bird communities. 7883,2007,2,4,Sphagnum peatland development at their southern climatic range in West Siberia: trends and peat accumulation patterns,A region of western Siberia is vulnerable to the predicted climatic change which may induce an important modification to the carbon balance in wetland ecosystems. This study focuses on the evaluation of both the long-term and contemporary trends of peat (carbon) accumulation and its patterns at the southern climatic range of Sphagnum peatlands in western Siberia. Visible and physical features of peat and detailed reconstructions of successional change (or sediment stratigraphies) were analysed at two types of forest -peatland ecotones| which are situated close to each other but differ by topography and composition of their plant communities. Our results suggest that Siberian peatlands exhibit a general trend towards being a carbon sink rather than a source even at or near the southern limit of their distribution. Furthermore| two types of peat accumulation were detected in the study area| namely persistent and intermittent. As opposed to persistent peat accumulation| the intermittent one is characterized by the recurrent degradation of the upper peat layers at the marginal parts of raised bogs. Persistent peat accumulation is the case for the majority of Sphagnum peatlands under current climatic conditions. It might be assumed that more peat will accumulate under the ' increased precipitation' scenarios of global warming| although intermittent peat accumulation could result in the eventual drying that may change peatlands from carbon sinks to carbon sources. 7777,2007,2,4,Spring arrival dates of migratory breeding birds in Maine: Sensitivity to climate change,I analyzed the relationship between spring temperature and arrival date for 105 species using over 32|000 arrival records of migratory breeding birds in Maine collected by a volunteer network between 1994 and 2005. 1 used quantile regression analysis| testing three different quantiles (0.1| 0.25| 0.5). Only 69 of 315 regressions yielded a significant negative relationship. Five species showed significant regressions for all three quantiles and 15 showed significant regressions for two quantiles. Quantile regressions of arrival date with a hemispheric measure of climate variability| the North Atlantic Oscillation index| produced only 63 statistically significant regressions for the three quantiles. Seven species and 12 species had significant regressions with three and two quantiles| respectively. Overall| 60 species had at least one significant relationship with a climatic variable. These results indicate the arrival dates of most migratory breeding birds in Maine show a modest relationship with the significant temperature variability seen over the 12-year study period. The data suggest the response of migratory birds in Maine to global warming impacts will be a gradual process. 8092,2007,2,4,Spring temperatures in relation to laying dates and clutch size of the blue tit (Parus caeruleus) in Croatia,This study was based on spring temperatures| laying dates| and clutch size of the first nesting attempt of the Blue Tit (Parus caeruleus) from 1982 to 2004 in Hrvatsko Zagorje rural area (46 degrees 00' N| 15 degrees 55' E)| Croatia. The results suggest that timing of breeding of the Blue Tit is influenced by spring air temperatures. There was a significant correlation between spring temperature and years| consistent with a global warming trend. The date of clutch initiation in the Blue Tit population studied did not decrease over a 23-year period. Correlations between spring temperatures and clutch size| and year and clutch size were not significant. 7893,2007,2,4,Stable-isotope probing implicates Methylophaga spp and novel Gammaproteobacteria in marine methanol and methylamine metabolism,The metabolism of one-carbon (C(1)) compounds in the marine environment affects global warming| seawater ecology and atmospheric chemistry. Despite their global significance| marine microorganisms that consume C(1) compounds in situ remain poorly characterized. Stable-isotope probing (SIP) is an ideal tool for linking the function and phylogeny of methylotrophic organisms by the metabolism and incorporation of stable-isotope-labelled substrates into nucleic acids. By combining DNA-SIP and time-series sampling| we characterized the organisms involved in the assimilation of methanol and methylamine in coastal sea water (Plymouth| UK). Labelled nucleic acids were analysed by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and clone libraries of 16S rRNA genes. In addition| we characterized the functional gene complement of labelled nucleic acids with an improved primer set targeting methanol dehydrogenase (mxaF) and newly designed primers for methylamine dehydrogenase (mauA). Predominant DGGE phylotypes| 16S rRNA| methanol and methylamine dehydrogenase gene sequences| and cultured isolates all implicated Methylophaga spp| moderately halophilic marine methylotrophs| in the consumption of both methanol and methylamine. Additionally| an mxaF sequence obtained from DNA extracted from sea water clustered with those detected in (13)C-DNA| suggesting a predominance of Methylophaga spp among marine methylotrophs. Unexpectedly| most predominant 16S rRNA and functional gene sequences from (13)C-DNA were clustered in distinct substrate-specific clades| with 16S rRNA genes clustering with sequences from the Gammaproteobacteria. These clades have no cultured representatives and reveal an ecological adaptation of particular uncultured methylotrophs to specific C(1) compounds in the coastal marine environment. 8039,2007,4,4,Statistical aspects of global warming dynamics,This communication aims to identify and utilize persistent features of global atmospheric temperature for predicting underlying fluctuating phenomena. A graphical method| Loess plot is used to show the presence of some degree of non-linearity in global temperature dynamics. Here we propose to split the average global temperature data set into three scale invariant temperature series on the basis of Hurst exponent in order to extract useful features of the physical system responsible for temperature anomalies. Global warming dynamics is revealed as possible Martingale and Markov stochastic processes. Different orders of Markov processes are examined for representative adequate models of the phenomenon. The models considered can be used both for short term and long-term temperature forecasts. 8352,2007,3,4,Status of fossil energy resources: A global perspective,This article deals with recently status of global fossil energy sources. Fossil energy sources have been split into three categories: oil| coal| and natural gas. Fossil fuels are highly efficient and cheap. Currently oil is the fastest primary energy source in the world (39% of world energy consumption). Coal will be a major source of energy for the world for the foreseeable future (24% of world energy consumption). In 2030| coal covers 45% of world energy needs. Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing component of world energy consumption (23% of world energy consumption). Fossil fuel extraction and conversion to usable energy has several environmental impacts. They could be a major contributor to global warming and greenhouse gases and a cause of acid rain; therefore| expensive air pollution controls are required. 1404,2007,2,4,Steady diversification of derived liverworts under Tertiary climatic fluctuations,Tropical forests contain the majority of extant plant diversity and their role as a cradle and/or museum of biodiversity is an important issue in our attempts to assess the long-term consequences of global climate change for terrestrial biomes. Highly diverse groups of liverworts are an often ignored but extremely common element in rainforests| and thus their evolution may shed light on the ecological robustness of rainforest biomes to climate fluctuations. We record a remarkable constant accumulation of diversity through time for the most species-rich family of liverworts| Lejeuneaceae| inferred by divergence time estimates. The observed pattern supports the recently developed concept of a dual role of the tropics as both a museum and a cradle of biodiversity. 1465,2007,4,4,Storage and release of fossil organic carbon related to weathering of sedimentary rocks,The biogeochemical carbon cycle| which plays an undeniable role in global climate change| is defined both by the size of carbon reservoirs (such as the atmosphere| biomass| soil and bedrock) and the exchange between them of various mineral and organic carbon forms. Among these carbon forms| fossil organic carbon (FOC) (i.e.| the ancient organic matter stored in sedimentary rocks) is widely observed in modem environments but is not included in the supergene carbon budget. Using a digitized map of the world and an existing model of CO2 consumption associated with rock weathering| we establish the global distribution of FOC stored in the first meter of sedimentary rocks and a first estimation of annual FOC delivery to the modem environment resulting from chemical weathering of these rocks. Results are given for the world's 40 major river basins and extended to the entire continental surface. With a mean value of I 100 10(9) t| mainly controlled by shale distribution| the global FOC stock is significant and comparable to that of soil organic carbon (1500 10(9) t). The annual chemical delivery of FOC| estimated at 43 10(6) t yr(-1) and controlled by the areal distribution of shales and runoff is of the same order of magnitude as the FOC output flux to oceans. Chemical weathering of bedrock within the Amazon basin produces one-quarter of the total global flux of FOC derived from chemical weathering| and thus is expected to govern FOC release on a global scale. These results raise important questions concerning the role of FOC in the modem carbon cycle as well as the origin and the budget of carbon in soils and rivers. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8394,2007,3,3,Storage of high level nuclear waste in Germany,Nuclear energy is very often used to generate electricity. But first the energy must be released from atoms what can be done in two ways: nuclear fusion and nuclear fission. Nuclear power plants use nuclear fission to produce electrical energy. The electrical energy generated in nuclear power plants does not produce polluting combustion gases but a renewable energy| an important fact that could play a key role helping to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and tackling global warming especially as the electricity energy demand rises in the years ahead. This could be assumed as an ideal win-win situation| but the reverse site of the medal is that the production of high-level nuclear waste outweighs this advantage. Hence the paper attempt to highlight the possible state-of-art concepts for the safe and sustaining storage of high-level nuclear waste in Germany. 8019,2007,2,4,Storms of tropical origin: a climatology for New York State| USA (1851-2005),The tropical storm database used in this study was obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Coastal Service Center| using the Historical Hurricane Tracks tool. Queries were used to determine the number of storms of tropical origin that have impacted the State and each of its counties. A total of 76 storms of tropical origin passed over New York State between 1851 and 2005. Of these storms| 14 were classified as hurricanes. The remaining hurricanes passed over New York State as weaker or modified systems-27 tropical storms| 7 tropical depressions| and 28 extratropical storms (ET). Long Island experiences a disproportionate number of hurricanes and tropical storms. The average frequency of hurricanes and storms of tropical origin (all types) is one in every 11 years and one in every 2 years| respectively. September is the month of greatest frequency for storms of tropical origin| although the storms of greatest intensity tend to arrive later in the hurricane season and follow different poleward tracks. While El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles appear to show some influence| the frequency and intensity of storms of tropical origin appear to follow a multidecadal cycle. Storm activity was greatest in both the late 19th and 20th centuries. During periods of increased storm frequency and intensity storms reached New York State at progressively later dates. While the number and timing of storms of tropical origin is likely to increase| this increase appears to be attributed to a multidecadal cycle| as opposed to a trend in global warming. 8388,2007,2,4,Stratospheric Sudden Warming with Projected Global Warming and Related Tropospheric Wave Activity,Stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in association with projected global warming (GW) in the Northern Hemisphere was investigated by 20th-century and 21st-century simulations (20CS and 21CS) using the atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Composite analysis revealed that the model simulated 20th-century dynamical aspects of SSW well. Although SSW events in early winter are missing| considering difficulties in reasonable SSW simulation| we regard the 20CS results as reference values. The 21CS suggests that forcing by GW increases the number of both major and minor SSW events in Dec| Jan| and early Feb| in correlation with larger eddy heat flux (EHF) at 100 hPa in Nov| Dec| and early Jan. The increase of the flux mainly originates from tropospheric stationary wave response. The greater flux continues until early Jan and then the polar night jet is much more weakened in Feb. This background state then effectively blocks wave propagation into the stratosphere and the EHF at 100 hPa slightly decreases though the difference is not statistically significant. The major SSW events decreases in Mar. 8269,2007,2,4,Streamflow trends and hydrological response to climatic change in Tarim headwater basin,This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic variability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of observed trends in streamflow in an environment which is highly variable in terms of atmospheric conditions| and where snow and ice melt play an important role in the natural hydrological regime. The discharge trends of three head streams have a significant increase trend from 1957 to 2002 with the Mann-Kendall test. Complex time-frequency distributions in the streamflow regime are demonstrated especially by Morlet wavelet analysis over 40 years. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of climatic factors spatial and temporal distribution| involved the use of EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) to compare the dominant temperature| precipitation and evaporation patterns from normally climatic records over the Tarim's headwater basin. It shows that the first principal component was dominated since the 1990s for temperature and precipitation| which identifies the significant ascending trend of spatial and temporal pattern characteristics under the condition of the global warming. An exponential correlation is highlighted between surface air temperature and mean river discharge monthly| so the regional runoff increases by 10%-16% when surface air temperature rises by 1 degrees C. Results suggest that headwater basins are the most vulnerable environments from the point of view of climate change| because their watershed properties promote runoff feeding by glacier and snow melt water and their fundamental vulnerability to temperature changes affects rainfall| snowfall| and glacier and ice melt. 1466,2007,4,4,Strontium isotope tracing of terrigenous sediment dispersal in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current: Implications for constraining frontal positions,[1] The vigor of the glacial Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and the locations of frontal boundaries are important parameters for understanding the role of the Southern Ocean in global climate change. Toward the goal of understanding the locations of currents we present a survey of Sr isotope ratios in terrigenous sediments around the perimeter of Antarctica. The pattern of the variations within the modern ACC is used to suggest that terrigenous sediment from Antarctica is injected into the ACC via the Ross and Weddell gyres in the south. North of the main ACC the Sr isotopes reflect continental contributions from Africa| Australia-New Zealand| and South America. Along a transect northward from the Ross Sea| Sr isotope ratios show a decrease from higher values in the south ( Antarctic provenance) to lower values in the north ( provenance from New Zealand). This otherwise monotonic decrease is interrupted within the ACC by a "zigzag'' to lower and then higher values| which accompanies minimum terrigenous flux. This zigzag requires contributions from two additional sediment sources beyond the main Antarctic and New Zealand end-members. The lower Sr isotope ratios are attributable to greater contributions from basaltic sources within the current| a consistent pattern around the ACC. The samples with higher Sr isotope ratios point to an additional contributor| possibly a wind-transported component from Australia. During the LGM there is a systematic geographical variation in the Sr isotope ratios| similar to that of the Holocene. A small offset of the zigzag to the north ( approximately 1 degrees-2 degrees) may indicate a small northward shift of the southern boundary of the ACC. More highly resolved data are required to test whether this northward shift is really significant and whether it applies to other ACC fronts during the LGM. 7749,2007,2,4,Structure of temperature variability in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere,The spatial structure of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 20th century is studied from the data obtained over the period 1892-1999. The expansion of the mean (over the winter and summer periods) SAT anomalies into empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is used for analysis. It is shown that variations in the mean air temperature in the Arctic region (within the latitudes 60 degrees-90 degrees N) during both the winter and summer periods can be described with a high accuracy by two spatial orthogonal modes of variability. For the winter period| these are the EOF related to the leading mode of variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the NH| the North Atlantic Oscillation| and the spatially localized (in the Arctic) EOF| which describes the Arctic warming of the mid-20th century. The expansion coefficient of this EOF does not correlate with the indices of atmospheric circulation and is hypothetically related to variations in the area of the Arctic ice cover that are due to long-period variations in the influx of oceanic heat from the Atlantic. On the whole| a significantly weaker relation to the atmospheric circulation is characteristic of the summer period. The first leading variability mode describes a positive temperature trend of the past decades| which is hypothetically related to global warming| while the second leading EOF describes a long-period oscillation. On the whole| the results of analysis suggest a significant effect of natural climatic variability on air-temperature anomalies in the NH high latitudes and possible difficulties in isolating an anthropogenic component of climate changes. 7868,2007,3,4,Study of an YBCOHTS transmission cable system,HTS transmission cables offer an innovative transmission line that differs from conventional technologies because HTS cables can send bulk power with extremely low loss. The HTS cable will contribute to energy saving and the prevention of global warming technologically. Reduction of cable loss is the most important development in economical cables for power networks. Today| second generation (2G) wires| such as an YBCO tape| are considered to have the potential to reduce AC loss. We developed YBCO power cables and succeeded in reducing AC loss to one-sixth the loss of BSCCO cable. According to our estimations| the total loss of an YBCO cable will be half the conventional (normal conducting) cable but yield the same power capacity. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8095,2007,4,4,Study of temperature and precipitation variations in Italy based on surface instrumental observations,In this paper we present a study concerning the climatic behaviour of two principal observables| temperature and precipitation as obtained from the measurements carried out at 50 Italian meteorological stations| since 1961. Analyses of WMO Climate Normals (CliNo) from 1961 to 1990 have been performed dividing the 50 Italian stations in three different classes: mountain (11 stations)| continental (17) and coastal areas (21). The comparison of the CliNo 1961-1990 with the trend of temperature and precipitation for the period 1991-2000 showed a sharp significant increase of summer temperatures over Italy starting from 1980. This phenomenon was particularly evident for mountain stations| where a significant temperature increase has been recorded also during the autumn. Moreover| the analysis of precipitation data permitted to point out that| starting from 1980| mountain stations have been affected by a significant increase of precipitation events during autumn and winter| while for the rest of the Italian territory a reduction of precipitations has been recorded during early spring. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8059,2007,3,2,Study on energy use in China,Rapidly rising energy consumption in China has attracted worldwide attention. This paper provides some insights into future energy supply and demand based on an analysis of the current situation and unique features of energy use in China. With a population of over 1.3 billion| China will need a massive amount of energy to maintain its high economic growth rate. Fast development| in the transportation sector| in particular| has resulted in continuing growth in oil imports| threatening China's energy security. Heavy reliance on coal has caused serious environment problems in China and possibly more widely| mainly by the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide| a major contributor to global warming. The Chinese government has been taking measures to improve energy efficiency and energy conservation to control energy consumption as well as promoting the use of clean energy such as hydroelectricity and natural gas| to replace coal| to reduce energy related pollution. 7844,2007,3,3,Studying the effect on system preference by varying coproduct allocation in creating life-cycle inventory,How one models the input and output data for a life-cycle assessment (LCA) can greatly affect the results. Although much attention has been paid to allocation methodology by researchers in the field| specific guidance is still lacking. Earlier research focused on the effects of applying various allocation schemes to industrial processes when creating life-cycle inventories. To determine the impact of different allocation approaches upon product choice| this study evaluated the gas- and water-phase emissions during the production| distribution| and use of three hypothetical fuel systems (data that represent conventional gasoline and gasoline with 8.7 and 85% ethanol were used as the basis for modeling). This paper presents an explanation of the allocation issue and the results from testing various allocation schemes (weight| volume| market value| energy| and demand-based) when viewed across the entire system. Impact indicators for global warming| ozone depletion| and human health noncancer (water impact) were lower for the ethanol-containing fuels| while impact indicators for acidification| ecotoxicity| eutrophication| human health criteria| and photochemical smog were lower for conventional gasoline (impacts for the water-related human health cancer category showed mixed results). The relative ranking of conventional gasoline in relation to the ethanol-containing fuels was consistent in all instances| suggesting that| in this case study| the choice of allocation methodology had no impact on indicating which fuel has lower environmental impacts. 8258,2007,2,4,Successful colonization of the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa in the oligo-mesohaline area of the Gironde estuary (SW France) - Natural or anthropogenic forcing?,The copepod Acartia tonsa appeared in Europe in the first half of the 20th century and colonized progressively European seas and estuaries| possibly transferred from North Atlantic Coast of America. It had been reported in the polyhaline area of the Gironde estuary for a long time but was first recorded in the oligo-mesohaline area in 1983. Its abundance has been increasing significantly. High abundances of A. tonsa were reported since 1999| supplanting the abundances of its autochthonous congeneric species| Acartia bifilosa. This colonization was characterized by analyzing the mean seasonal variability: (1) for three 5-year periods corresponding to three different steps of A. tonsa appearance (1978-1982| A. tonsa was absent; 1988-1992| low abundances of the species; and 1999-2003| high abundances of A. tonsa) in the oligo-mesohaline area and (2) for three stations distributed along the salinity gradient during the recent period. The aim of this work was to define if this colonization was due to natural or anthropogenic forcing and to evaluate its possible impact on autochthonous zooplanktonic community. Both natural and anthropogenic forcings seem to explain the colonization of Acartia tonsa in the oligo-mesohaline area of the Gironde estuary. First records (1983-1988) could be due to marine water inputs caused by high values of the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The global warming which caused the increase of the summer warm period| the marinisation of the system and the local decrease of the turbidity should have been the key factors favoring the establishment of the species. Anthropogenic forcings as the establishment of the nuclear power plant which locally causes warmer conditions are also important factors explaining the differences of seasonal cycle observed between oligo-mesohaline area and other stations: the seasonal pattern of A. tonsa in the oligo-mesohaline area was indeed characterized by an autumnal peak of abundances which has been observed in other stations and in many North European estuaries| and by a second spring peak that had only been observed in Southern estuaries. The introduction of Acartia tonsa in the Gironde estuary significantly changed the seasonal pattern of autochthonous copepods| by limiting their seasonal abundances without affecting their long-term population stability. Finally| the successful colonization of A. tonsa had led to the spread of the seasonal zooplanktonic production which could have had an impact on fish and shrimp productions. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7993,2007,4,5,Surface warming by the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean difference projection,By projecting surface temperature data ( 1959 - 2004) onto the spatial structure obtained objectively from the composite mean difference between solar max and solar min years| we obtain a global warming signal of almost 0.2 degrees K attributable to the 11- year solar cycle. The statistical significance of such a globally coherent solar response at the surface is established for the first time. 8368,2007,3,4,Sustainability evaluation: diverging routes recombined? Tasks for a new Working Group on Modelling and Evaluation for Sustainability,In making practical decisions on technologies and products and related strategies and policies| all sustainability effects are involved| from global warming and income distribution to economic growth and habitat destruction. Judging the relative importance of these different effects| that is their evaluation| is unavoidable. Reality just is that complex. The only choice is if the judgement is made implicitly or explicitly. In the environment domain of sustainability there are at least four basically different approaches to evaluation and the underlying modelling| and at least one approach focussing on efficiency only| all with diverging outcomes. A working group involving different scientific societies is being set up to actively relate the different approaches and to see how at a practical level they might be reconciled. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8389,2007,3,3,Sustainable engineering for the future: a laboratory experiment on carbon dioxide adsorption from a carbon dioxide-nitrogen gas stream,Undergraduate engineering students have an important role to play in curbing greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. This paper tackles the societal concern of carbon dioxide emissions from power plants by introducing a simple junior or senior-level experiment that illustrates the phenomenon of gas adsorption as a tool for carbon dioxide separation from a gas stream that simulates power plant flue gas emissions. The experiment familiarizes chemical and environmental engineering students with the characteristics of gas separation by adsorption with activated alumina| zeolite 13 X| and soda lime| while highlighting its potential)for carbon dioxide| reduction at ambient conditions and at a relevant concentration (partial pressure) of carbon dioxide. This should be of interest to faculty who teach unit operations-type laboratory courses; they will find it an excellent 'sustainable engineering' hands-on addendum to traditional curricula. 7876,2007,3,4,Sustainable utilisation of forest biomass for energy-possibilities and problems: Policy| legislation| certification| and recommendations and guidelines in the Nordic| Baltic| and other European countries,The substitution of biomass for fossil fuels in energy consumption is a measure to mitigate global warming| as well as having other advantages. Political action plans for increased use exist at both European and national levels. This paper briefly reviews the contents of recommendations. guidelines. and other synthesis publications on Sustainable use of forest biomass for energy. Topics are listed and an overview of advantages. disadvantages| and trade-offs between them is given| from the viewpoint of society in general and the forestry or the Nordic and Baltic countries| the paper also identifies the extent to which wood for energy is and energy sectors in particular. F included in forest legislation and forest certification standards under the "Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification" (PEFC) and the "Forest Stewardship Council" (FSC) schemes. Energy and forest policies at EU and national levels| and European PEFC forest standards are analysed. With respect to energy policies| the utilisation of wood for energy is generally supported in forest policies but forest legislation is seldom used as a direct toot to encourage the utilisation of wood for energy. Regulations sometimes restrict use for environmental reasons. Forest certification standards include indicators directly related to the utilisation of wood for energy under several criteria| with most occurences found under environmental criteria. Roles and problems in relation to policy| legislation| certification standards| recommendations and guidelines| and science are discussed. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8245,2007,2,3,Synergistic effects of high temperature and sulfide on tropical seagrass,To examine the synergism of high temperature and sulfide on two dominant tropical seagrass species| a large-scale mesocosm experiment was conducted in which sulfide accumulation rates (SAR) were increased by adding labile carbon (glucose) to intact seagrass sediment cores across a range of temperatures. During the initial 10 d of the 38 d experiment| porewater SAR in cores increased 2- to 3-fold from 44 and 136 mu mol L(-1) d(-1) at 28-29 degrees C to 80 and 308 mu mol L(-1) d(-1) at 34-35 degrees C in Halodule wrightii and Thalassia testudinum cores| respectively. Labile C additions to the sediment resulted in SAR of 443 and 601 mu mol L(-1) d(-1) at 28-29 degrees C and 758 to 1|557 mu mol L(-1) d(-1) at 34-35 degrees C in H. wrightii and T testudinton cores| respectively. Both T testudinum and H. wrightii were highly thermal tolerant| demonstrating their tropical affinities and potential to adapt to high temperatures| While plants survived the 38 d temperature treatments| there was a clear thermal threshold above 33 degrees C where T testudinum growth declined and leaf quantum efficiencies (Fv/Fm) fell below 0.7. At this threshold temperature| H. wrightii maintained shoot densities and leaf quantum efficiencies. Although H. wrigghtii showed a greater tolerance to high temperature| T testudinum had a greater capacity to sustain biomass and short shoots under thermal stress with labile C enrichment| regardless of the fact that sulfide levels in the T testudium cores were 2 times higher than in the H. wrightii cores. Tropical seagrass tolerance to elevated temperatures| predicted in the future with global warming| should be considered in the context of the sediment-plant complex which incorporates the synergism of plant physiological responses and shifts in sulfur biogeochemistry leading to increased plant exposure to sulfides| a known toxin. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7759,2007,2,4,Synergistic impacts of heat shock and spawning on the physiology and immune health of Crassostrea gigas: an explanation for summer mortality in Pacific oysters,Mass mortality is often observed in cultured oysters during the period following spawning in the summer season. To examine the underlying causes leading to this phenomenon| thermotolerance of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas was assessed using pre- and postspawning oysters that were sequentially treated with sublethal (37 degrees C) and lethal heat shocks (44 degrees C). The effects were examined on a range of immune and metabolic parameters in addition to mortality rate. A preventative 37 degrees C significantly reduced oyster mortality after exposure to a second heat shock of 44 degrees C| but in postspawning oysters mortality remained at 80%| compared with < 10% in prespawning oysters. Levels of the 72 kDa and 69 kDa heat shock proteins were low in the gill tissue from postspawning oysters stimulated by heat shock| indicating spawning reduced heat shock protein synthesis. The postspawning oysters had depleted glycogen stores in the mantle tissue and reduced adenylate energy charge after heat shock| indicative of lower energy for metabolic activity. A cumulative effect of spawning and heat shock was observed on the immunocompetence of oysters| demonstrated by reduced hemocyte phagocytosis and hemolymph antimicrobial activity. These results support the hypothesis that the energy expended during reproduction compromises the thermotolerance and immune status of oysters| leaving them easily subject to mortality if heat stress occurs in postspawning stage. This study improves our understanding of oyster summer mortality and has implications for the long-term persistence of mollusks under the influence of global warming. 8186,2007,4,4,Synthesis of the NEMURO model studies and future directions of marine ecosystem modeling,NEMURO| the North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional oceanography| simulates the temporal evolution and dynamics of the North Pacific's nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton food web. The approach of developing a single model formulation allowed quantitative comparisons across various locations and time periods. Building on a common foundation enabled the linkages between lower trophic levels to the higher trophic (fish) components to proceed systematically. NEMURO was extended to NEMUROTISH by using the lower trophic level output of NEMURO as input to a bioenergetic-based model of fish growth and population dynamics. This paper summarizes the contributions of individual papers that comprise this issue of Ecological Modelling and that all used the NEMURO family of models. Contributions represent a rich set of case-studies and in-depth modeling studies focused on the North Pacific that addressed: oceanic biogeochemistry| regional and seasonal variability of phytoplankton and zooplankton| reconstruction of 40-50 years of plankton dynamics| effects of climate on herring and saury growth and population dynamics| the feasibility of automatic calibration methods| the sensitivity of the model to parameter values| and projections of future states of the ecosystem under global warming. Next steps in the evolution of NEMURO are suggested and include increased resolution of the physical model underlying NEMURO| the addition of new biological state variables at the lower trophic levels to better represent the diversity of oceanic species and their potential for different responses under changing environmental conditions| and the addition of more higher trophic level species to allow for inter-specific (competition and predation) interactions. The NEMURO effort involved a diverse group of researchers working jointly on a common problem for several years. Consequently| the resulting contributions| even at the level of the individual papers| provide a broader perspective and integration of the results than would have occurred by working in isolation. The benefits of a large-scale collaborative effort to develop a common model formulation are clearly illustrated by the papers in this issue. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8166,2007,2,4,Tales from the blackgum| a consummate subordinate tree,No species in the eastern United States better exemplifies a ubiquitous yet subordinate tree than does blackgum (Nyssa sylvatica). What enables blackgum to grow nearly everywhere| but almost always at very low densities? It is the longest-lived hardwood species in the eastern United States| with a maximum age that can exceed 650 years. It is inherently slow growing| which most likely explains its great longevity and high shade tolerance; it is also one of the few tree species that are fire resistant as well as shade tolerant. Blackgum can grow in bottomlands or at xeric sites| being tolerant of both flooding and drought. Despite these ecologically beneficial attributes-and the fact that early loggers systematically avoided blackgum because of its tendency to rot-this slow-growing tree is rarely dominant. Blackgum has so far simply persisted as a marginal species. The future of blackgum is uncertain| however| because of the opposing forces of global warming and increased competition from other tree species. This article synthesizes a broad range of ecological studies that relate to the unique behavior of blackgum as a consummate subordinate| something that is poorly understood for this and other similar species in the ecology literature. 8218,2007,3,2,Techno-economic study of CO2 capture from an existing cement plant using MEA scrubbing,Carbon dioxide is the major greenhouse gas responsible for global warming. Man-made CO2 emissions contribute approximately 63% of greenhouse gases and the cement industry is responsible for approximately 5% of CO2 emissions emitting nearly 900 kg of CO2 per 1000 kg of cement. CO2 from a cement plant was captured and purified to 98% using the monoethanolamine (MEA) based absorption process. The capture cost was $51 per tonne of CO2 captured| representing approximately 90% of total cost. Steam was the main operating cost representing 39% of the total capture cost. Switching from coal to natural gas reduces CO2 emissions by about 18%. At normal load| about 36 MW of waste heat is available for recovery to satisfy the parasitic heat requirements of MEA process; however| it is very difficult to recover. 8072,2007,2,3,Temperate mountain glacier-melting rates for the period 2001-30: Estimates from three coupled GCM simulations for the greater Himalayas,The temperate glaciers in the greater Himalayas (GH) and the neighboring region contribute to the freshwater supply for almost one-half of the people on earth. Under global warming conditions| the GH glaciers may melt more rapidly than high-latitude glaciers| owing to the coincidence of the accumulation and ablation seasons in summer. Based on a first-order energy balance approach for glacier thermodynamics| the possible imposed additional melting rate was estimated from three climate simulations using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Global Coupled Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1)| the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2| high-resolution version (MIROC3.2-hires)| and the Met Office's Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3). The simulations were carried out under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. For the 30-yr period of 2001-30| all three CGCMs indicate that the glacial regions most sensitive to regional warming are the Tianshan-Altai Mountains to the north and Hengduan Mountains to the south. A map of potential melting was produced and was used to calculate the glacier-melting speed| yielding an additional spatially averaged glacier depth reduction of approximately 2 m for the 2001-30 period for those areas located below 4000 m. Averaged over the entire GH region| the melting rate is accelerating at about 5 mm yr(-2). The general circulation over the GH region was found to have clear multidecadal variability| with the 30-yr period of 2001-30 likely to be wetter than the previous 30-yr period of 1971-2000. Considering the possible trend in precipitation from snow to rain| the actual melting rates of the GH glaciers may even be larger than those obtained in this research. 8298,2007,2,4,Temperature affects performance of Lymantria dispar larvae feeding on leaves of Quercus robur,Future climatic warming may modify insect development| sex ratio| quantitative changes in populations that could affect the frequency of outbreaks. Here we analyzed the influence of temperature on larval growth and development in the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.). The larvae were reared at three constant temperatures: 15| 20 or 25 degrees C| and fed with leaves of the English oak Quercus robur L.). Larval mortality| duration of development (DD)| relative growth rate (RGR)| total mass of food eaten (TFE)| and pupal mass (PM) were estimated. Larval mortality was lowest at 20 degrees C| higher at 25 degrees C| and highest at 15 degrees C. DD significantly decreased with increasing temperature and depended on sex. The influence of temperature on the shortening of DD was stronger in males than in females. RGR significantly depended on temperature and was the highest at 25 degrees C| and lowest at 15 degrees C. At 15 degrees C| RGR did not change markedly with time. In contrast| RGR at 20 degrees C was characterized by a continuous decreasing trend. At 25 degrees C| RGR was very high for 2 weeks but quickly declined afterwards. Temperature did not affect the TFE. PM was significantly correlated with temperature and sex. PM of females was higher at 20 degrees C than at 15 and 25 degrees C| in contrast to that of males| which was similar at 20 and 25 degrees C| and higher than at 15 degrees C. For larval growth and development| the most favourable was the medium temperature (20 degrees C). The least favourable temperature for females was 25 degrees C| for males 15 degrees C. The results suggest that global warming may modify the future sex ratio of gypsy moths that may affect insect development and outbreaks. 1354,2007,2,4,Temperature and rainfall anomalies in Africa predict timing of spring migration in trans-Saharan migratory birds,The long-term advance in the timing of bird spring migration in the Northern Hemisphere is associated with global climate change. The extent to which changes in bird phenology reflect responses to weather conditions in the wintering or breeding areas| or during migration| however| remains to be elucidated. We analyse the relationships between the timing of spring migration of 9 species of trans-Saharan migratory birds across the| Mediterranean| and thermal and precipitation anomalies in the main wintering areas south of the Sahara Desert and in North African stopover areas. Median migration dates were collected on the island of Capri (southern Italy) by standardized mist-netting during 1981 to 2004. High temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa (Sahel and Gulf of Guinea) prior to northward migration (February and March) were associated with advanced migration. Moreover| birds migrated earlier when winter rainfall in North Africa was more abundant. The relationships between relevant meteorological variables and timing of migration were remarkably consistent among species| suggesting a coherent response to the same extrinsic stimuli. All these results were obtained while statistically controlling for the long-term trend towards the earlier timing of spring migration across the Mediterranean that has been documented in previous analyses of the same dataset| a trend that was confirmed by the present analyses. In conclusion| our results suggest that thermal conditions in the wintering quarters| as well as rainfall in North African stopover areas| can influence interannual variation in migration phenology of trans-Saharan migratory birds| although the ecological mechanisms that causally link meteorological conditions to the timing of migration remain a matter of speculation. 8250,2007,2,4,Temperature as a predictor of survival of the pine processionary moth in the Italian Alps,The pine processionary moth Thatimetopoea pilyocampa is expanding its geographical range in Europe| as a consequence of enhanced winter survival under a warmer climate. A combination of daytime nest temperatures and night air temperatures determines the number of hours larvae are able to feed (hours above realized feeding threshold| RFT). We tested the RFT-based model for survival across multiple areas of the insect's range in the Italian Alps over a 2-year period. In a series of translocation experiments using natural temperature gradients as spatial analogues for global warming| we transferred colonies of T pityocampa larvae to sites within zones of historical distribution| recent distribution| and outside the present range. The sites included traditional (Pinus nigra| Pinus sylvestris) as well as novel (Pinus mugo| Pinus uncinata| Pinus cembra) hosts. Survival during precold (August to November)| cold (December to February) and postcold (March to May) periods were analysed against climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) and predictors developed by the model. Host species did not significantly affect final survival| with the exception of slower larval development| and resulting lower cold tolerance| on P cembra than on R mugo at the same site. Across all the sites and hosts| final survival of colonies depended on the number of feeding hours during the cold period (RFT)| which explained 82% of the variance in a regression model. We recommend using RFT| or its surrogate daily mean minimum temperature when nest temperature is not available| in predictive models of range expansion of T pityocampa under climate change scenarios. 1364,2007,2,3,Temperature dependence of growth| development| and photosynthesis in maize under elevated CO2,Global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (C-a) are rising. As a consequence| recent climate models have projected that global surface air temperature may increase 1.4-5.8 degrees C with the doubling of C-a by the end of the century. Because| changes in C-a and temperature are likely to occur concomitantly| it is important to evaluate how the temperature dependence of key physiological processes are affected by rising C-a in major crop plants including maize (Zea mays L.)| a globally important grain crop with C-4 photosynthetic pathway. We investigated the temperature responses of photosynthesis| growth| and development of maize plants grown at five temperature regimes ranging from 19/13 to 38.5/32.5 degrees C under current (370 mu mol mol(-1)) and doubled (750 mu mol mol(-1)) C-a throughout the vegetative stages using sunlit controlled environmental chambers in order to test if the temperature dependence of these processes was altered by elevated C-a Leaf and canopy photosynthetic rates| C-4 enzyme activities. leaf appearance rates| above ground biomass accumulation and leaf area were measured. We then applied temperature response functions (e.g.. Arrhenius and Beta distribution models) to fit the measured data in order to provide parameter estimates of the temperature dependence p for modeling photosynthesis and development at current and elevated C-a in maize. Biomass| leaf area| leaf appearance rate| and photosynthesis measured at growth C-a was not changed in response to CO2 enrichment. Carboxylation efficiency and the activities Of C-4 enzymes were reduced with CO2 enrichment indicating possible photosynthetic acclimation of the C-4 cycle. All measured parameters responded to growth temperatures. p Leaf appearance rate and leaf photosynthesis showed curvilinear response with optimal temperatures near 32 and 34 degrees C| respectively. Total above|ground biomass and leaf area were negatively correlated with growth temperature. The dependence of leaf appearance rate| biomass| leaf area| leaf and canopy photosynthesis. and C-4 enzyme activities on growth temperatures was comparable between current and elevated C-a. The results of this study suggest that the temperature effects on growth| development| and photosynthesis may remain unchanged in elevated C-a compared with current C-a in maize. Published by Elsevier B.V. 7723,2007,2,4,Temperature sensitivity of microbial respiration| nitrogen mineralization| and potential soil enzyme activities in organic alpine soils,[1] Investigations focusing on the temperature sensitivity of microbial activity and nutrient turnover in soils improve our understanding of potential effects of global warming. This study investigates the temperature sensitivity of C mineralization| N mineralization| and potential enzyme activities involved in the C and N cycle (tyrosine amino-peptidase| leucine amino-peptidase| beta-glucosidase| beta-xylosidase| N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase). Four different study sites in the Austrian alpine zone were selected| and soils were sampled in three seasons (summer| autumn| and winter). A simple first-order exponential equation was used to calculate constant Q(10) values for the C and N mineralization over the investigated temperature range (0 - 30 degrees C). The Q(10) values of the C mineralization (average 2.0) for all study sites were significantly higher than for the N mineralization (average 1.7). The Q(10) values of both activities were significantly negatively related to a soil organic matter quality index calculated by the ratios of respiration to the organic soil carbon and mineralized N to the total soil nitrogen. The chemical soil properties or microbial biomass did not affect the Q10 values of C and N mineralization. Moreover| the Q10 values showed no distinct pattern according to sampling date| indicating that the substrate quality and other factors are more important. Using a flexible model function| the analysis of relative temperature sensitivity (RTS) showed that the temperature sensitivity of activities increased with decreasing temperature. The C and N mineralization and potential amino-peptidase activities (tyrosine and leucine) showed an almost constant temperature dependence over 0 - 30 degrees C. In contrast| beta-glucosidase| beta-xylosidase| and N-acetyl- beta-glucosaminidase showed a distinctive increase in temperature sensitivity with decreasing temperature. Low temperature at the winter sampling date caused a greater increase in the RTS of all microbial activities than for the autumn and summer sampling dates. Our results indicate (1) a disproportion of the RTS for potential enzyme activities of the C and N cycle and (2) a disproportion of the RTS for easily degradable C compounds (beta-glucose| beta-xylose) compared with the C mineralization of soil organic matter. Thus temperature may play an important role in regulating the decay of different soil organic matter fractions due to differences in the relative temperature sensitivities of enzyme activities. 1534,2007,2,4,Temperature sensitivity of vertical distributions of zooplankton and planktivorous fish in a stratified lake,Recent studies have indicated that temporal mismatches between interacting populations may be caused by consequences of global warming| for example rising spring temperatures. However| little is known about the impact of spatial temperature gradients| their vulnerability to global warming| and their importance for interacting populations. Here| we studied the vertical distribution of two planktivorous fish species (Coregonus spp.) and their zooplankton prey in the deep| oligotrophic Lake Stechlin (Germany). The night-time vertical centre of gravity both of the fish populations and of two of their prey groups| daphnids and copepods| were significantly correlated to the seasonally varying water temperature between March and December 2005. During the warmer months| fish and zooplankton occurred closer to the surface of the lake and experienced higher temperatures. The Coregonus populations differed significantly in their centre of gravity; hence| also| the temperature experienced by the populations was different. Likewise| daphnids and copepods occurred in different water depths and hence experienced different temperatures at least during the summer months. We conclude that any changes in the vertical temperature gradient of the lake as a result of potential future global warming may impact the two fish populations differently| and may shape interaction strength and timing between fish and their zooplankton prey. 8027,2007,2,4,Temperature sum accumulation effects on within-population variation and long-term trends in date of bud burst of European white birch (Betula pendula),Within-population variation in phenology of boreal trees indicates their adaptability to climatic variations. Although interannual variations in date of bud burst have been widely discussed| little is known about within-population variation| the key determinants for this variation and the effects of this variation on estimates of trends in bud burst date. Over a period of nine years| we monitored timing of bud burst daily in 30 mature white birch (Betula pendula Roth) trees in a naturally regenerated stand. Our results revealed not only large interannual variation but also considerable intraannual variation among individual trees in date of bud burst| the maximum within-population variation being four weeks. Bud burst can be accurately predicted by the date when a threshold value of temperature sum in spring is reached (base temperature +5 degrees C). Based on this temperature sum and past temperature records| we estimated the trend in date of bud burst. The linear trend estimate based on the years 1926-2005 is an advancement of 1.2 days per decade (95% confidence interval| +/- 0.7 days)| which is much less than that predicted by time series based on coarser time intervals. We conclude that| because of large interannual differences| and large annual within-population variations in bud burst| estimates of bud burst date based on measurements made over a period of only a few decades are unreliable.
8068,2007,2,4,Temperature variability in a changing climate,Here we examine probability density functions (PDFs) of temperature variability over multi-decadal periods under idealised global warming scenarios. Such PDFs are expected to be more useful to managers of infrastructure and systems with a finite multi-decadal lifetime| than would PDFs for a specific future year (2030 or 2100 say). We suppose that the PDF of temperature variability at any given time t(1) > to retains its initial normally distributed shape| i.e. PDF(T(t = t(0)))| with the same standard deviation| but is shifted to the right by an amount [t = [t(t). We refer to each of these PDFs| valid for individual times| as the individual PDFs. The PDF representing variability over the entire period t(0 <=) 5 t <= t(1) and not just at some instant within this period| i.e. the aggregated PDF (APDF)| is broader than the instantaneous PDF and so the range of temperatures experienced over a finite period is greater than in an unchanging climate. The APDF is normally distributed if warming occurs at a linear rate| but is skewed towards higher temperatures if warming accelerates over the period of interest. Changes in APDFs of Australian mean minimum temperatures are generally consistent with this simple conceptual model. Idealised warming in which the variance of the individual PDFs increases is also considered. Popular conceptual models of the impact of global warming on temperature variability are relevant for instantaneous rather than aggregated PDFs. Such models neglect the straightforward but important issues that arise when finite periods and non-linear warming rates are considered. 7745,2007,2,4,Temperature| temperature extremes| and mortality: a study of acclimatisation and effect modification in 50 US cities,Objectives: The authors examined the increase in mortality associated with hot and cold temperature in different locations| the determinants of the variability in effect estimates| and its implications for adaptation. Methods: The authors conducted a case-crossover study in 50 US cities. They used daily mortality and weather data for 6 513 330 deaths occurring during 1989 -2000. Exposure was assessed using two approaches. First| the authors determined exposure to extreme temperatures using city-specific indicator variables based on the local temperature distribution. Secondly| they used piecewise linear variables to assess exposure to temperature on a continuous scale above/ below a threshold. Effects of hot and cold temperature were examined in season-specific models. In a meta-analysis of the city-specific results| the authors examined several city characteristics as effect modifiers. Results: Mortality increases associated with both extreme cold (2-day cumulative increase 1.59% (95% CI 0.56 to 2.63)) and extreme heat (5.74% (95% CI 3.38 to 8.15)) were found| the former being especially marked for myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest deaths. The increase in mortality was less marked at less extreme temperatures. The effect of extreme cold (defined as a percentile) was homogeneous across cities with different climates| suggesting that only the unusualness of the cold temperature (and not its absolute value) had a substantial impact on mortality (that is| acclimatisation to cold). Conversely| heat effects were quite heterogeneous| with the largest effects observed in cities with milder summers| less air conditioning and higher population density. Adjustment for ozone led to similar results| but some residual confounding could be present due to other uncontrolled pollutants. Conclusions: The authors confirmed in a large sample of cities that both cold and hot temperatures increase mortality risk. These findings suggest that increases in heat-related mortality due to global warming are unlikely to be compensated for by decreases in cold-related mortality and that population acclimatisation to heat is still incomplete. 7753,2007,2,4,Temperature-associated dynamics of songbird winter distributions and abundances,Using Christmas Bird Count data| we analyze the annual spatio-temporal abundances of six passerine species in the upper Great Plains| US (1960-1990). This study provides new insight into how global warming could cause separation of species within present-day communities. We find that winter relative abundances of similarly-sized songbirds are differentially affected by ambient winter temperature. As such| average annual winter temperature fluctuations (i.e.| severity of winter) are significantly (P < 0.05) correlated with the relative abundances of three species while the other three are not. Our conditional probability-of-occurrence analysis indicates that the abundances of the three temperature-associated species declined markedly below -4 degrees C while the abundances of the other three species fluctuated little from 8 degrees C to -16 degrees C. We conclude that even in colder climates i) the winter distributions of some| but not all| songbirds are directly or indirectly limited by temperature; and ii) these birds have dynamic abundances that can quickly respond to temperature changes. 1589,2007,2,4,Temperature-dependent effects of cadmium and purine nucleotides on mitochondrial aconitase from a marine ectotherm| Crassostrea virginica: a role of temperature in oxidative stress and allosteric enzyme regulation,Temperature and heavy metals such as cadmium (Cd) are important environmental stressors that can strongly affect mitochondrial function of marine poikilotherms. In this study| we investigated the combined effects of temperature (20 degrees C and 30 degrees C) and Cd stress on production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and oxidative stress in a marine poikilotherm Crassostrea virginica (the eastern oyster) using mitochondrial aconitase as a sensitive biomarker of oxidative damage. We also assessed potential involvement of mitochondrial uncoupling proteins (UCPs) in antioxidant protection in oyster mitochondria using purine nucleotides (GDP| ATP and ADP) as specific inhibitors| and free fatty acids as stimulators| of UCPs. Our results show that exposure to Cd results in elevated ROS production and oxidative damage as indicated by aconitase inactivation which is particularly pronounced at elevated temperature. Unexpectedly| oyster mitochondrial aconitase was inhibited by physiologically relevant levels of ATP (IC50 = 1.93 and 3.04 mmol l(-1) at 20 degrees C and 30 degrees C| respectively)| suggesting that allosteric regulation of aconitase by this nucleotide may be involved in regulation of the tricarboxylic acid flux in oysters. Aconitase was less sensitive to ATP inhibition at 30 degrees C than at 20 degrees C| consistent with the elevated metabolic flux at higher temperatures. ADP and GDP also inhibited mitochondrial aconitase but at the levels well above the physiological concentrations of these nucleotides (6-11 mmol l(-1)). Our study shows expression of at least three UCP isoforms in C. virginica gill tissues but provides no indication that UCPs protect mitochondrial aconitase from oxidative inactivation in oysters. Overall| the results of this study indicate that temperature stress exaggerates toxicity of Cd leading to elevated oxidative stress in mitochondria| which may have important implications for survival of poikilotherms in polluted environments during seasonal warming and/or global climate change| and suggest a novel temperature-dependent mechanism of allosteric regulation of TCA flux in oyster mitochondria. 8262,2007,2,4,Temporal changes in euphausiid distribution and abundance in North Atlantic cold-core rings in relation to the surrounding waters,The species composition of euphausiids was investigated in relationship to the hydrographic conditions in the North Atlantic cold-core rings (CCR) and adjacent waters to elucidate species succession in evolving water masses. Using data| dating back to the 1970s| from as many CCRs as possible and selecting typical cases where no major physical perturbations occurred| a general pattern of euphausiid succession and change in vertical distribution in rings with time was obtained. This pattern was related to the general distribution of euphausiids in the northwestern North Atlantic Ocean| aiming at providing basic information on probable response of North Atlantic marine ecosystem to global warming. Of the 34 euphausiid species identified| 5 were cold-water species| 17 were warm-water species| 6 were wide-ranging warm-water species| 1 was transitional| 4 were cosmopolitan and the remaining was Thysanoessa parva. Among cold-water species| Euphausia krohni and Nematoscelis megalops were dominant in CCRs. E. krohni became rare in rings older than 6 months| whereas N. megalops survived longer| being abundant in some rings of 9 months or older| by staying within its preferred temperature range as the CCR elevated isotherms sank to depths where they are normally found in the Sargasso Sea and because it is an omnivore-carnivore. Among warm-water species| epipelagic species appeared first in rings| corresponding to the physical change occurring most rapidly in the surface layers. Mesopelagic species appeared later. Cold-water species made up 65-85% of the total euphausiid population in number in younger rings (1-5 months old)| while warm-water species contributed only 2-7%. Wide-ranging warm-water species made up about up to one fourth of the total in rings 5 and 7 months old. Warm-water species| mainly E. brevis| increased in older rings (9 months old or older) and made up 50% of the total in the oldest ring. The contribution of cold-water species decreased to 14% in older rings. T. parva made up 26-38% of the total in rings 6 months or older. CCR populations can be characterized by high species number| but intermediate evenness between the Slope Water and northern Sargasso Sea. In CCRs| only a limited number of species were dominant even if there were more species present in rings as old as 9-12 months than in the northern Sargasso Sea. In rings older than 9 months| euphausiids showed two peaks in their vertical distribution: a shallow daytime peak at about 400 m and a nighttime peak in the upper 100 m consisting of warm-water species (mainly E. brevis) and a deeper persistent peak at 800 in or deeper consisting of the species N. megalops and T. parva. This shallow peak in CCRs is shallower than that in the surrounding northern Sargasso Sea| and the deep peak is rarely observed in these waters. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7956,2007,4,4,Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5 degrees N,The vigor of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is thought to be vulnerable to global warming| but its short-term temporal variability is unknown so changes inferred from sparse observations on the decadal time scale of recent climate change are uncertain. We combine continuous measurements of the MOC (beginning in 2004) using the purposefully designed transatlantic Rapid Climate Change array of moored instruments deployed along 26.5 degrees N| with time series of Gulf Stream transport and surface-layer Ekman transport to quantify its intra-annual variability. The year-long average overturning is 18.7 +/- 5.6 sverdrups (Sv) (range: 4.0 to 34.9 Sv| where 1 Sv = a flow of ocean water of 10(6) cubic meters per second). Interannual changes in the overturning can be monitored with a resolution of 1.5 Sv. 7885,2007,2,4,Temporal variations in English populations of a forest insect pest| the green spruce aphid (Elatobium abietinum)| associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and global warming,Based on an exceptionally long modern ecological dataset (41 years)| it has been possible to show that warm weather in England associated with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index causes the spring migration of the green spruce aphid (Elatobium abietinum)| a pest species of spruce trees (Picea) to start earlier| continue for longer and contain more aphids. An upward trend in the NAO index during the period 1966-2006 is associated with an increasing population size of E. abietinum. It is important to understand the mechanisms behind the population fluctuations| because this aphid causes considerable damage to Picea plantations. Present day weather-associated fluctuations in forest insect pests may be useful analogues in understanding past pest outbreaks in forests. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 1596,2007,4,4,Tension wood formed in Fagus sylvatica and Alnus glutinosa after simulated mass movement events,Due to the likelihood of global climate change| the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards such as mass movements may likewise change| thus favouring the refinement of methods to detect and quantify geomorphic events when precise records are not available. Geomorphic events typically have a significant effect on tree growth| e.g.| reaction wood marked by changes in ring widths and wood density. To date| several dendroecological techniques have been developed to document the occurrence of these events but it rarely has been possible to retrieve additional information from reaction wood concerning the precise kind and intensity of geomorphic events. Additional qualitative information inferred from reaction wood of trees holds the potential to not only document but also estimate important characteristics of natural hazard events. To refine the methods already used in dendrogeornorpology| experiments simulating various geomorphic events were used to monitor subsequent wood anatomical responses of Fagus sylvatica and Alnus glutinosa. The preliminary results indicate that these two common broadleaf tree species show variations in their reactions to different experimental treatments. 7919,2007,3,3,Terrestrial carbon pools in southeast and south-central United States,Analyses of regional carbon sources and sinks are essential to assess the economical feasibility of various carbon sequestration technologies for mitigating atmospheric CO2 accumulation and for preventing global warming. Such an inventory is a prerequisite for regional trading of CO2 emissions. As a U.S. Department of Energy Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partner| we have estimated the state-level terrestrial carbon pools in the southeast and south-central US. This region includes: Alabama| Arkansas| Florida| Georgia| Louisiana| Mississippi| North Carolina| South Carolina| Tennessee| Texas| and Virginia. We have also projected the potential for terrestrial carbon sequestration in the region. Texas is the largest contributor (34%) to greenhouse gas emission in the region. The total terrestrial carbon storage (forest biomass and soils) in the southeast and south-central US is estimated to be 130 Tg C/year. An annual forest carbon sink (estimated as 76 Tg C/year) could compensate for 13% of the regional total annual greenhouse gas emission (505 Tg C| 1990 estimate). Through proper policies and the best land management practices| 54 Tg C/year could be sequestered in soils. Thus| terrestrial sinks can capture 23% of the regional total greenhouse emission and hence are one of the most cost-effective options for mitigating greenhouse emission in the region. 8232,2007,5,4,Terrestrial records of a regional weathering profile at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary in the Williston Basin of North Dakota,The "orange zone" within the Bear Den Member of the Golden Valley Formation (Williston Basin| North Dakota) represents a terrestrial weathering profile formed by intense pedogenesis during an ancient (ca. 55 Ma) global warming event referred to as the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Distinctive features of the orange zone include: (1) high abundances of kaolinite| (2) a strongly leached character with a bright orange iron-enriched horizon| (3) poor organic carbon preservation| and (4) ferric pans/pisoliths at its basal contact| equivalent to modern lateritic materials. Though conclusive evidence| such as a distinctive Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum flora and/or definitive carbon isotope excursion| is lacking| the stratigraphic succession of palynofloral datums preserved within the upper part of the Bear Den orange zone is similar to that associated with the later stages of other terrestrial Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum records from the U.S. Western Interior. Bulk delta C-13(org) ratios decrease through the orange zone as well| but the magnitude of this isotopic decrease is less than that of the carbon isotope excursion. Thus| the collective evidence indicates that the early initial stages of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum are either preserved within the barren| condensed interval of the lower orange zone or are missing altogether from the Williston Basin stratigraphy| and that the orange zone likely developed during the later recovery stages of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. The Williston Basin records generally agree with the tenet that continental weathering intensified during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Moreover| these records indicate that the paleohydrology of the basin varied markedly and that sequestration of terrestrial organic carbon was greatly reduced as this transient global warming event unfolded. 8174,2007,3,4,The 'thermal semi-conductor' effect of crushed rocks,Coarse rock layers are widespread in periglacial environments and can lower the temperature of underlying ground. We show that the cooling effect of closed and sloping rock layers is in the form of Rayleigh-Benard convection| while that of open and inclined rock layers is via the 'chimney effect' and wind-forced convection. Cooling has been observed in numerical simulations| laboratory models and field mock-up experiments. Coarse rocks were widely used in the construction of the Qinghai-Xizang Railroad and temperature monitoring of their performance indicates that they do have a cooling effect on embankments. The advantages of utilising such materials are many| including high efficiency| ease of installation| environmental friendliness and relatively low cost. It is recommended that they be used in engineering projects in sensitive permafrost areas as a cooling agent and/or a countermeasure against possible global warming. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 8195,2007,2,4,The 1979-2005 Greenland ice sheet melt extent from passive microwave data using an improved version of the melt retrieval XPGR algorithm,Analysis of passive microwave satellite observations over the Greenland ice sheet reveals a significant increase in surface melt over the period 1979-2005. Since 1979| the total melt area was found to have increased by +1.22 x 10(7) km(2). An improved version of the cross-polarized gradient ratio (XPGR) technique is used to identify the melt from the brightness temperatures. The improvements in the melt retrieval XPGR algorithm as well as the surface melt acceleration are discussed with results from a coupled atmosphere-snow regional climate model. From 1979 to 2005| the ablation period has been increasing everywhere over the melt zone except in the regions where the model simulates an increased summer snowfall. Indeed| more snowfall in summer decreases the liquid water content of the snowpack| raises the albedo and therefore reduces the melt. Finally| the observed melt acceleration over the Greenland ice sheet is highly correlated with both Greenland and global warming suggesting a continuing surface melt increase in the future. 8205,2007,4,5,The 60-year solar modulation of global air temperature: the Earth's rotation and atmospheric circulation connection,Spectral analysis of geomagnetic activity| global air temperature| Earth's rotation rate and zonal circulation| when smoothed from secular trend and periods shorter than 23 years| shows a concentration of energy around the 60-year period explaining more than 80% of the entire variance. This information has enabled the set-up of a cascade physical model that integrates the Sun-atmosphere-Earth system as a single unit and ties solar corpuscular radiation to global warming through Earth's rotation and atmospheric circulation. Our results suggest that changes in geomagnetic activity| and in the Earth's rotation| could be used as long- and short-term indicators| respectively| of future changes in global air temperature. 8375,2007,3,4,The application of the environmental product declaration to waste disposal in a sanitary landfill - Four case studies,Goal| Scope and Background. The aim of the present study is to evaluate| through LCA| the potential environmental impact associated to urban waste dumping in a sanitary landfill for four case studies and to compare different technologies for waste treatment and leachate or biogas management in the framework of the EPD (R) system. Specific data were collected on the four Italian landfills during a five-year campaign from 2000 to 2004. This work also analyses the comparability of EPD results for different products in the same product category. For this purpose| a critical review of PSR 2003:3| for preparing an EPD on 'Collection| transfer and disposal service for urban waste in sanitary landfills'| is performed. Methods. PSR 2003:3 defines the requirements| based on environmental parameters| that should be considered in an LCA study for collecting and disposal service of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in a sanitary landfill. It defines functional unit| system boundaries towards nature| other technical systems and boundaries in time| cut-off rules| allocation rules and parameters to be declared in the EPD. This PSR is tested on four case studies representing the major landfills located from the farthest west to the farthest cast side of the Ligurian Region. Those landfills are managed with different technologies as concerns waste pretreatment and leachate or biogas treatment. For each landfill| a life cycle assessment study is performed. Results and Discussion. The comparison of the LCA results is performed separately for the following phases: transport| landfill| leachate and biogas. The following parameters are considered: Resource use (Use of non-renewable resources with and without energy content| Use of renewable resources with and without energy content| Water consumption); Pollutant emissions expressed as potential environmental impact (Global Warming Potential from biological and fossil sources| Acidification| Ozone depletion| Photochemical oxidant formation| Eutrophication| Land use| Hazardous and other Waste production). The comparison of the LCA results obtained for alternative landfill and biogas management techniques in the case studies investigated shows that the best practicable option that benefits the environment as a whole must be identified and chosen in the LCA context. For example| a strong waste pre-treatment causes a high biological GWP in the landfill phase| but a low GWP contribution in the biogas phase| due to the consequent low biogas production| evaluated for 30 years since landfill closure. Conclusion. The analysis of four case studies showed that| through the EPD tool| it is possible to make a comparison among different declarations for the same product category only with some modification and integration to existent PSR 2003:3. Results showed that different products have different performances for phases and impact categories. It is not possible to identify the 'best product' from an environmental point of view| but it is possible to identify the product (or service) with the lowest impact on the environment for each impact category and resource use. Recommendation and Perspective. In consequences of the verification of the comprehensiveness of existent PSR 2003:3 for the comparability of EPD| some modifications and integration to existent rules are suggested. 1546,2007,5,4,The Arctic as a trigger for glacial terminations,We propose a hypothesis to explain the very abrupt terminations that end most of the glacial episodes. During the last glaciation| the buildup and southerly expansion of large continental ice-sheets in the Northern Hemisphere and extensive cover of sea ice in the N. Pacific and the N. Atlantic imposed a much more zonal climatic circulation system than exists today. We hypothesize that this| in combination with the frigid (dry) polar air led to a significant decrease in freshwater runoff into the Arctic Ocean. In addition the freshwater contribution of the fresher Pacific water was completely eliminated by the emergence of the Bering Strait (sill depth 50 m). As the Arctic freshwater input was depleted| regions of the Arctic Ocean lost surface stability and eventually overturned| bringing warmer deep water to the surface where it melted the overlying sea ice. This upwelled water was quickly cooled and sank as newly formed deep water. For sustained overturn events| such as might have occurred during the peak of very large glacial periods (i.e. the last glacial maximum)| the voluminous deep water formed would eventually overflow into the Nordic Seas and North Atlantic necessitating an equally voluminous rate of return flow of warmer surface waters from the North Atlantic thus breaking down the Arctic's zonal isolation| melting the expansive NA sea ice cover and initiating oceanic heating of the atmosphere over the ice-sheets bordering the NA. We suggest that the combined effect of these overturn-induced events in concert with a Milankovitch warming cycle| was sufficient to drive the system to a termination. We elaborate on this proposed sequence of events| using the model for the formation of the Weddell Sea polynya as proposed by Martinson et al. (1981) and various| albeit sparse| data sets from the circum-Arctic region to apply and evaluate this hypothesis to the problem of glacial terminations. 7843,2007,3,4,The atmospheric background of perfluorocarhon compounds used as tracers,There are seven cyclic perfluoroalkane compounds| which can be detected in extremely low concentrations| that are used to track mass movement and transfer in a variety of research and practical applications. They are used in leak detection in underground storage and pipelines and in atmospheric transport and diffusion research on local| regional| and continental scales. They are likely to be a used globally for monitoring carbon sequestration in geological formations. The atmospheric background levels of these compounds must be accurately known| and trends in their concentrations determined for these compounds to be effective in monitoring CO2 reservoirs and because there are environmental concerns about their release. Results of measurements of perfluorocarbon background concentrations from two recent field programs are presented| and trends in these values examined using data collected over the last 25 years. The current atmospheric concentrations of these compounds are in the low parts per quadrillion levels| and their annual atmospheric growth rate is less than 1 part per quadrillion per year. The environmental effects of these compounds are examined and found to be negligible at current release rates. 1549,2007,5,4,The California current system during the last 136|000 years: response of the North Pacific High to precessional forcing,Alkenone sea surface temperature (SST) records were generated from the Ocean Drilling Program's (ODP) Sites 1014 and 1016 to examine the response of the California Current System to global climate change during the last 136ka. The temperature differences between these sites (Delta SSTNEP = SSTODP10144-SSTODP1016) reflected the intensity of the California Current and varied between 0.4 and 6.1 degrees C. A high ASSTNEP (weaker California Current) was found for late marine isotope stage (MIS) 2 and early MIS 5e| while a low ASSTNEP (stronger California Current) was detected for mid-MIS 5e and MIS 1. Spectral analysis indicated that this variation pattern dominated 23- (precession) and 30-ka periods. Comparison of the Delta SSTNEP and SST based on data from core MD01-2421 at the Japan margin revealed anti-phase variation; the high ASSTNEP (weakening of the California Current) corresponded to the low SST at the Japan margin (the southward displacement of the NW Pacific subarctic boundary)| and vice versa. This variation was synchronous with a model prediction of the tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation behavior. These findings suggest that the intensity of the North Pacific High varied in response to precessional forcing| and also that the response has been linked with the changes of tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7884,2007,2,3,The Caspian Sea Level forced by the atmospheric circulation| as observed and modelled,The Caspian Sea Level (CSL) has experienced large fluctuations with wide-reaching impacts on the population on the coastal regions and on the economy. The CSL variability is dominated by the variability of precipitation over the Volga River basin. The precipitation during summer plays a dominant role and can explain the two major events that happened in the 1930s (drop) and after 1977 (rise). Impacts are expected from global warming due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations; especially the precipitation over the Volga River basin is expected to increase. It is| however| compensated more or less by increased evaporation over the Caspian Sea (CS) itself. It is shown that the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg) models are able to simulate most processes relevant for the CSL variability quite realistically| i.e.| within the uncertainty of observational data. The simulations suggest a slight increase of the CSL in the 21st century; but due to a large variability of precipitation over the Volga River basin a statement concerning the future development of the CSL cannot be made with confidence at the moment. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 8196,2007,2,4,The changing carbon cycle at Mauna Loa Observatory,The amplitude of the CO(2) seasonal cycle at the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) increased from the early 1970s to the early 1990s but decreased thereafter despite continued warming over northern continents. Because of its location relative to the large-scale atmospheric circulation| the MLO receives mainly Eurasian air masses in the northern hemisphere (NH) winter but relatively more North American air masses in NH summer. Consistent with this seasonal footprint| our findings indicate that the MLO amplitude registers North American net carbon uptake during the warm season and Eurasian net carbon release as well as anomalies in atmospheric circulation during the cold season. From the early 1970s to the early 1990s| our analysis was consistent with that of Keeling et al. [Keeling CID| Chin JFS| Whorf TP (1996) Nature 382:146-149]| suggesting that the increase in the MILO CO(2) amplitude is dominated by enhanced photosynthetic drawdown in North America and enhanced respiration in Eurasia. In contrast| the recent decline in the CO(2) amplitude is attributed to reductions in carbon sequestration over North America associated with severe droughts from 1998 to 2003 and changes in atmospheric circulation leading to decreased influence of Eurasian air masses. With the return of rains to the U.S. in 2004| both the normalized difference vegetation index and the MLO amplitude sharply increased| suggesting a return of the North American carbon sink to more normal levels. These findings indicate that atmospheric CO(2) measurements at remote sites can continue to play an important role in documenting changes in land carbon flux| including those related to widespread drought| which may continue to worsen as a result of global warming. 7920,2007,3,4,The clean development mechanism's contribution to sustainable development: a review of the literature,The challenges of how to respond to climate change and ensure sustainable development are currently high on the political agenda among the world's leading nations. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is part of the global carbon market developing rapidly as part of the Kyoto response towards the mitigation of global warming. One of the aims of the CDM is to achieve sustainable development in developing countries| but uncertainty prevails as to whether the CDM is doing what it promises to do. Close to 200 studies on the CDM have been carried out since its birth in 1997 including peer-reviewed articles and reports from the grey literature. This review of the literature serves to assess the state of knowledge on how the CDM contributes to sustainable development (SD) including poverty alleviation. The main finding of the review is that| left to market forces| the CDM does not significantly contribute to sustainable development. 8293,2007,2,4,The combined impact on the flooding in Vietnam's Mekong River delta of local man-made structures| sea level rise| and dams upstream in the river catchment,The Mekong River delta plays an important role in the Vietnamese economy and it has been severely impacted during this century by a series of unusually large floods. In the dry season the delta is also impacted by salinity intrusion and tides. These effects have caused severe human hardship. To mitigate these impacts| a large number of engineering structures| primarily dykes and weirs| have been built in the delta in recent years and are still being built| mainly to control floods and saltwater intrusion. These control measures are still being upgraded. A GIS-linked numerical model shows that the flood levels in the delta depend on the combined impacts of high river flows in the Mekong River| storm surges| sea level rise| and the likely| future siltation of the Mekong Estuary resulting from the construction of dams in China as well as many other dams proposed throughout the remaining river catchment. The model suggests that the engineering structures in the delta increase the flow velocities in the rivers and canals| increasing bank erosion| and cause the water to be deeper in the rivers and canals. This increases flooding in the non-protected areas of the delta and increases the risk of catastrophic failure of the dykes in the protected areas. The model also predicts that a sea level rise induced by global warming will enhance flooding in the Mekong River delta in Vietnam| and that flooding may worsen in the long term as a result of estuarine siltation resulting from the construction of dams. At the scale of the Mekong River basin| a multinational water resources management plan is needed that includes the hydrological needs of the delta. At the scale of the delta| a compromise is needed between allowing some flooding necessary for agriculture and preventing catastrophic flooding to alleviate human suffering. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7819,2007,3,2,The commons revisited: The tragedy continues,Garrett Hardin's classic paper "Tragedy of the Commons" published in Science in 1968 struck a chord with scientists and non-scientists alike and has continued to provide a key reference point to how a number of "Commons" -related problems can be viewed. Hardin's paper will be in looked at in view of both anthropogenic global warming and peak oil and some of the solutions he posed for the "population problem" applied to the post-peak era. Possible solutions are compared with the Kyoto Protocol for global warming and the Rimini Protocol for peak oil. A carbon-indexed| universal tax on non-renewable energy resources 'Unitax' is mooted as a longer-term possibility to overcoming both global warming and the financing of post-peak oil problems. Alas| the process of dealing with global warming and peak oil seems to be falling into the "no technical solution" category that Hardin identified for population. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8066,2007,2,4,The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach,This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate| hydrological| soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warning will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources| water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 1482,2007,2,4,The effect of impoundments on the structure and function of fish fauna in a highly regulated dry tropics estuary,Ross River flows through the Townsville/Thuringowa urban area in north Queensland| Australia. which has a dry tropical climate characterized by high inter-annual rainfall variation. Unregulated rivers in the Ross catchment basin deliver freshwater flows to their estuaries during both strong and weak wet seasons. The construction of a series of dams and weirs on Ross River means the wet-dry cycle is accentuated| leading to constant marine salinities throughout the estuary becoming the norm| with a lack of freshwater flow for five or more years at a time. The fish fauna of Ross River estuary was sampled in the post wet and dry seasons during an extremely dry climatic period (1994) and extremely wet climatic period (2000) using a|small mesh (6 mm) pocket seine net. The fish fauna seemed to reflect seasonal differences. Catches from 1994 (dry period) were comprised entirely of 88 marine and euryhaline species| while the 69 species captured in 2000 (wet period) included 13 freshwater species. However| the freshwater species in the upper estuary were individuals washed over the weir| rather than part of a functional faunal gradient. During 1994 faunal composition was related more to site identity than to the position of the site along an upstream gradient. In contrast| during 2000 there were clear upstream faunal gradients with compositions in upstream sites heavily influenced by freshwater species| and marine and euryhaline species dominating downstream sites. Patterns of species dominance also varied between years. In contrast| trophic composition showed consistent shifts in both years| from high proportions of herbivores| carnivores and benthoplanktivores in May towards high proportions of benthivores in August. Not only do faunal composition| seasonal faunal change and ecological connectivity seem to be impaired| but ecological processes in the estuary that rely on seasonal freshwater flows are likely to be unable to operate normally in most years. The extreme seasonality in Ross River may serve as a model for many of the changes that will be experienced in dry tropics estuaries under global climate change scenarios of more extreme seasonality. 7775,2007,2,4,The effect of soil warming on bulk soil vs. rhizosphere respiration,There has been considerable debate on whether root/rhizosphere respiration or bulk soil respiration is more sensitive to long-term temperature changes. We investigated the response of belowground respiration to soil warming by 3 degrees C above ambient in bare soil plots and plots planted with wheat and maize. Initially| belowground respiration responded more to the soil warming in bare soil plots than in planted plots. However| as the growing season progressed| a greater soil-warming response developed in the planted plots as the contribution of root/rhizosphere respiration to belowground respiration declined. A negative correlation was observed between the contribution of root/rhizosphere respiration to total belowground respiration and the magnitude of the soil-warming response indicating that bulk soil respiration is more temperature sensitive than root/rhizosphere respiration. The dependence of root/rhizosphere respiration on substrate provision from photosynthesis is the most probable explanation for the observed lower temperature sensitivity of root/rhizosphere respiration. At harvest in late September| final crop biomass did not differ between the two soil temperature treatments in either the maize or wheat plots. Postharvest| flux measurements during the winter months indicated that the response of belowground respiration to the soil-warming treatment increased in magnitude (response equated to a Q(10) value of 5.7 compared with similar to 2.3 during the growing season). However| it appeared that this response was partly caused by a strong indirect effect of soil warming. When measurements were made at a common temperature| belowground respiration remained higher in the warmed subplots suggesting soil warming had maintained a more active microbial community through the winter months. It is proposed that any changes in winter temperatures| resulting from global warming| could alter the sink strength of terrestrial ecosystems considerably. 7912,2007,2,4,The effects of temperature on producers| consumers| and plant-herbivore interactions in an intertidal community,Although global warming is acknowledged as a primary threat to populations and communities| the impact of rising temperature on community structure remains poorly understood. In this study| we investigated the direct and indirect effects of temperature on epilithic primary producers (micro- and macroalgae) and an abundant consumer| the rough limpet Lottia scabra| in the rocky intertidal zone in central and northern California| USA. We factorially manipulated temperature and limpet abundance in the field to determine the effects of temperature on herbivore growth and mortality| algal abundance| and the strength of plant-herbivore interactions. Microalgal growth was positively affected by shading at both locations| and negatively affected by limpet grazing at Pacific Grove but not at Bodega Bay. Macroalgae were only abundant at Bodega Bay| where changes in abundance were negatively related to grazing and independent of temperature. Despite temperature-related changes in microalgal food supply| there were no direct or indirect effects of temperature manipulation on L. scabra growth or mortality. Furthermore| temperature did not alter the importance of herbivory at either site. These results indicate that the influence of increasing temperature| as is predicted with climate change| will have differential effects on producers and consumers. However| thermal effects at one trophic level do not necessarily propagate through the food web to other trophic levels. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1486,2007,3,3,The efficiency gap behind the Annex I parties under the Kyoto Protocol,With the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol| an era of global efforts to combat climate change is beginning. Countries belonging to Annex I Parties are obligated to meet their target in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper broadens the scope of research to compare the performance between two groups| Annex 11 Parties and economies in transition (EIT) Parties (both of which are in the set of Annex I Parties)| undertaking responsibilities for GHG emission reduction. This differs from the traditional application of evaluation and aims to identify inherent efficiency differences across systems| rather than separately from the potential inefficiency of individual countries. An efficiency gap was found between the group of Annex 11 Parties and the group of EIT Parties| by adjusting efficiency levels. Considering a reference set| efficient Annex 11 countries are referenced| both within their own group and within the EIT group; efficient EIT countries are only benchmarked within the group. The evidence provided can shed light on the function of joint implementation| that Annex I countries will cooperate to reduce GHG emissions| based on their common| but differentiated| responsibilities and capacity for global climate change. 8091,2007,3,3,The environmental effectiveness of the beverage sector in Norway in a factor 10 perspective,Scope and Background. The environmental effectiveness of the Norwegian beverage sector has been studied in a Factor 10 perspective. The objective of the study was to identify strategies that could make the beverage sector radically more effective from an environmental and resource perspective| leading to a Factor 10 improvement. Another main purpose of the work was to test the potential for using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology on an economic sector with a network of product chains| rather than for a single product. Methods. Life Cycle Assessment data from STO's own studies and literature studies have been used as a basis for analysis of the environmental status of the beverage sector in Norway. The functional unit was defined as the amount of beverage products consumed per capita in Norway in the year 2000. The study includes raw material production| production of the beverage product| packaging manufacture| distribution| use and waste management of the products. The study has| for practical reasons| been limited to the environmental impact indicators total energy consumption and global warming potential. This was done as other types of data have been difficult to obtain for all of the products that were studied (tap water| coffee| milk| soft drinks| beer| squash| juice and bottled water). Results and Discussion. The study shows differences between the drinking products with respect to energy consumption and emissions that can contribute to global warming. Due to large uncertainties in the data| general conclusions regarding the differentiation of products based on environmental performance should be made with care. Production and distribution of tap water is| however| significantly less energy intensive than the other products. For the impact categories studied| production of raw materials was the most important part of the life cycle for most drinking products. Conclusions and Perspectives. The most significant contributions to achieving a Factor 10 development can be made by consuming more water| especially tap water| and through improving raw material production in the agricultural sector. Packaging and distribution is responsible for only a small part of the energy consumption and emissions leading to global warming. Optimal packaging sizes might however reduce loss of products in the user phase| which is important in order to improve the system. A Factor 10 level seems achievable only if the consumption of tap water is increased to a high level. 7989,2007,3,4,The environmental relevance of capital goods in life cycle assessments of products and services,Goal and Scope. Many life cycle assessment case studies neglect the production of capital goods that are necessary to manufacture a good or to provide a service. In ISO standards 14040 and 14044 the capital goods are explicitly part of the product system. Thus| it is doubtful if capital goods can be excluded per se as has been done in quite a number of case studies and LCA databases. There is yet no clear idea about if and when capital goods play an important role in life cycle assessments. The present paper evaluates the contribution of capital goods in a large number and variety of product and service systems. A classification of product and service groups is proposed to give better guidance on when and where capital goods should be included or can be neglected. Methods. The life cycle inventory database ecoinvent data v1.2 forms the basis for the assessment of the environmental importance of capital goods. The importance is assessed on the basis of several hundreds of cradle-to-gate LCAs of heat and electricity supply systems| of materials extraction and production| of agricultural products| and of transport and waste management services. The importance within product (and service) groups is evaluated with statistical methods by comparing the LCA results including and excluding capital goods. The assessment is based on characterised cumulative LCI results using the CML baseline characterisation factors of the impact categories of global warming| acidification| eutrophication| human toxicity| freshwater acquatic toxicity| terrestrial ecotoxicity| ionising radiation| and land competition| based on proxy indicators (fossil and nuclear) cumulative energy demand| and based on the endpoint indicators Eco-indicator 99 (H|A) mineral resources| human health| eco system quality and totals. Results. The analysis confirms the fact that capital goods cannot be excluded per se. On one hand| toxicity related environmental impacts such as freshwater ecotoxicity or human toxicity are more sensitive towards an inclusion or exclusion of capital goods. On the other| certain products like photovoltaic and wind electricity are very much or even completely affected by capital goods contributions| no matter which indicator is chosen. Nuclear electricity| agricultural products and processes| and transport services often behave differently (showing a higher or lower share of capital goods contribution) than products from other sectors. Discussions. Some indicators analysed in this paper show a rather similar behaviour across all sectors analysed. This is particularly true for 'mineral resources'| and - to a lesser extent - for 'Eco-indicator 99 total'| 'acidification' and 'climate change'. On the other hand| 'land use' and 'freshwater ecotoxicity' show the most contrasting behaviour with shares of capital goods' impacts between less than 1% and more than 98%. Recommendations. Capital goods must be included in the assessment of climate change impacts of non-fossil electricity| agricultural products and processes| transport services and waste management services. They must be included in any sector regarding the assessment of toxic effects. Energy analyses (quantifying the non-renewable cumulative energy demand) of agricultural products and processes| of wooden products and of transport services should include capital goods as well. The mixing of datasets including and excluding capital goods is no problem as long as their share on total impacts is low and partial omissions do not lead to a significant imbalance in comparative assertions. Perspectives. If in doubt whether or not to include capital goods| it is recommended to check two things: (1) whether maintenance and depreciation costs of capital equipment form a substantial part of the product price (Heijungs et al. 1992a)| and (2) whether actual environmental hot spots occur along the capital goods' supply chain. 8340,2007,4,4,The EU-CLOUDMAP project: Cirrus and contrail cloud-top maps from satellites for weather forecasting climate change analysis,The EU-CLOUDMAP project took place between 1997-2000 as a collaboration between five university and government research groups in the UK| Germany| the Netherlands and Switzerland. The original scientific motivation of the EU-CLOUDMAP Project was to improve the measurement and characterization of cirrus and contrail cloud properties. IPCC (Penner et al. 1999) demonstrated that contrail clouds could play a small but significant role in changing the radiative balance of the atmosphere based on work from one of the CLOUDMAP partners (DLR) using AVHRR data over Europe. However| the scope was broadened to include properties of clouds at all altitudes as (Cess et al. 1993) had shown that depending on how cloud processes are parameterised can lead to an order of magnitude difference in predictions of surface temperature due to changes in CO2 radiative forcing. This error is by far the largest uncertainty in making accurate forecasts of global warming. The primary technological motivation of the Project was to develop new techniques for deriving cloud-top properties (cloud-top height| amount| microphysics and winds) from a new series of meteorological sensors based on the use of either cloud-top stereo (ATSR-2 and MISR) or Oxygen A-band (MOS) and their application to the generation of new cloud climatology products. A secondary goal was to develop an automated technique| based on fuzzy logic| to detect contrails in non-thermal imagery where contrails can only be detected through their unique spatial characteristics. Validation of cloud products was perceived as a crucial central issue to any adoption of these products by the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate forecasting communities. This presents unique challenges as validation must be conducted simultaneously with satellite data acquisition. Ground-based remote sensing techniques exploiting continuously operating radars and lidars were used and a new technique based on visible stereo digital cameras for retrieving cloud-base properties was pioneered. A technology spin-off from the CLOUDMAP work at UCL was the development of an uncooled thermal IR fish-eye lens camera for continuously monitoring cloud cover from the ground to replace existing manual observations of cloud cover (Chapman et al. 2007). Eight papers in this issue show some of the highlights of the project including fundamental aspects of the algorithms for retrieval of cloud-top height using stereo photogrammetry from ATSR-2 (Muller et al. 2007| Denis et al. 2007) and MOMS (Drescher 2007) and Oxygen A-band from MOS (Preusker et al. 2007). Seiz et al. (2007) describe the development of a novel technique for the automated retrieval of cloud-base height from stereo visible digital cameras. Naud et al. (2007) describe the validation of cloud-top heights from ATSR-2 and MOS using ground-based radar and lidar. Hetzheim (2007) shows how fuzzy logic systems can be employed for contrail detection when thermal imagery is not available using MOS and ATSR-2 to demonstrate his techniques. Finally| Meyer et al. (2007) show results from applying the thermal IR contrail detection technique to AVHRR over Asia. 7898,2007,3,3,The evaluation of time variation global warming effects| TWPA and CWP| for CFC alternatives,Evaluations methods of global warming are presented by considering the direct warming effect of chemical compounds and of decomposed compounds| warming effect due to the formation of troposphere ozone| and the cooling effect due to the decomposition of stratosphere ozone. It is easy to take account the stabilization of global warming gases concentration in the atmosphere| as those methods can conduct the time variations analysis. The methods are named Total Warming Prediction Analysis (TWPA) and Composite Warming Potential (CWP). The evaluation of Mobile Air Conditioning refrigerant is presented as an example of application of our method. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1472,2007,2,4,The evolution of climate change impact studies on hydrology and water resources in California,Potential global climate change impacts on hydrology pose a threat to water resources systems throughout the world. The California water system is especially vulnerable to global warming due to its dependence on mountain snow accumulation and the snowmelt process. Since 1983| more than 60 studies have investigated climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in California. These studies can be categorized in three major fields: (1) Studies of historical trends of streamflow and snowpack in order to determine if there is any evidence of climate change in the geophysical record; (2) Studies of potential future predicted effects of climate change on streamflow and; (3) Studies that use those predicted changes in natural runoff to determine their economic| ecologic| or institutional impacts. In this paper we review these studies with an emphasis on methodological procedures. We provide for each category of studies a summary of significant conclusions and potential areas for future work. 8210,2007,3,2,The feasibility of shading the greenhouse with dust clouds at the stable lunar Lagrange points,There are many indications that anthropogenic global warming poses a serious threat to our civilization and its ecological support systems. Ideally this problem will be overcome by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Various space-based methods| including large-scale solar shades| diffusers or atmospheric pollutants| have been considered to reduce the solar constant (input flux) and the warming in case emissions reductions are not achieved in a timely way. Here it is pointed out that proposed technologies for near-Earth orbiting comet deflection| suggest a different kind of space-based solar shade. This shade would be made up of micron-sized dust particles derived from comet fragments or lunar mining| and positioned in orbits near the triangular Lagrange points of the Earth-Moon system. Solar radiation pressure can render such orbits unstable| but a class of nearly resonant| and long-lived orbits is shown to exist| though the phase space volume of such orbits depends on dust grain size. Advantages and disadvantages of this scheme relative to others are considered. 8314,2007,4,4,The full greenhouse gas balance of an abandoned peat meadow,Globally| peat lands are considered to be a sink of CO2| but a source when drained. Additionally| wet peat lands are thought to emit considerable amounts of CH4 and N2O. Hitherto| reliable and integrated estimates of emissions and emission factors for this type of land cover have been lacking and the effects of wetland restoration on methane emissions have been poorly quantified. In this paper we estimate the full greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of a restored natural peat land by determining the fluxes of CO2| CH4 and N2O through atmosphere and water| while accounting for the different Global Warming Potentials (GWP's). The site is an abandoned agricultural peat meadow| which has been converted into a wetland nature reserve ten years ago| after which the water level was raised. GHG fluxes were measured continuously with an eddy covariance system (CO2) and flux chamber measurements (CH4 and N2O). Meteorological and hydrological measurements were collected as well. With growing seasons of respectively 192| 168 and 129 days| the annual net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) was -446+ +/- 83 g C m(-2) yr(-1) for 2004| -311 +/- 58 g C m(-2) yr(-1) for 2005 and -232 +/- 57 g m(-2) yr(-1) for 2006. Ecosystem respiration (Reco) was estimated as 869 +/- 668 g C m(-2) yr(-1) for 2004| 866 +/- 666 g C m(-2) yr(-1) for 2005 and 924 +/- 711 g C m(-2) yr(-1) for 2006. CH4 emissions from the saturated land and water surfaces were high compared to the relatively dry land. Annual weighted CH4 emissions were 31.27 +/- 20.40 g C m(-2) yr(-1) for 2005 and 32.27 +/- 21.08 g C m(-2) yr(-1) for 2006. N2O fluxes were too low to be of significance. The water balance of the area was dominated by precipitation and evapotranspiration and therefore fluxes of carbon and CH4 through seepage| infiltration and drainage were relatively small (17.25 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). The carbon- balance consisted for the largest part of CO2 uptake| CO2 respiration and CH4 emission from water saturated land and water. CO2 emission has decreased significantly as result of the raised water table| while CH4 fluxes have increased. In GWP's the area was a small net GHG sink given as CO2- equiv. of - 86 g m(-2) yr(-1) (over a 100-year period). 8252,2007,4,4,The global circuit intensity - Its measurement and variation over the last 50 years,A fundamental problem in atmospheric electric research has been measurement of the intensity and variation of Earth's electric field| which is proportional to ionospheric potential (Vi). To obtain its magnitude an electric field sounding through the atmosphere is required. Data from the three programs that have measured Vi during the last half century were combined to determine the secular variation of global circuit intensity. The average geoelectric potential (Vi) magnitude has remained relatively constant at about 240 kV| except for a temporary increase of as much as 40% following a period of intense atmospheric nuclear testing in the early 1960s. Experiments were conducted to investigate the affect of temperature on Vi. Continental-scale hourly ground-level air temperature variation modulates the intensity of Vi and there is negative feedback involving cloud development that would stabilize temperature on the diurnal time scale. However| increased temperature-driven convection will increase water vapor in the troposphere and thus provide positive feedback enhancing global warming on longer time scales. Significant differences exist between the intensity of the DC global circuit and the diurnal and annual variations of global lightning frequency. The previously unknown minimum-to-maximum seasonal variation of Earth's electric field is about 15% of the mean with a maximum in late Northern Hemisphere summer and a minimum in winter. 8268,2007,3,4,The greenhouse effect: A new source of energy,Climate change induced by global warming is a result of an excess of energy at the earth's surface due to the greenhouse effect. But a new energy management can reverse the situation taking advantage of the greenhouse effect to produce renewable energy. In fact| both the renewable energy and the energy consumed which are not dissipated into heat are subtracted from the excess of energy produced by the greenhouse effect and contribute to mitigate climate change. This opens perspectives to harness the greenhouse effect [F. Meunier| Domestiquer l'effet de serre| Dunod| 2005]. Should all the primary energy be renewable energy and should part of the energy production not dissipated into heat| the present earth's energy imbalance should be beneficial and should serve to produce renewable energy. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8316,2007,2,4,The growing season greenhouse gas balance of a continental tundra site in the Indigirka lowlands| NE Siberia,Carbon dioxide and methane fluxes were measured at a tundra site near Chokurdakh| in the lowlands of the Indigirka river in north-east Siberia. This site is one of the few stations on Russian tundra and it is different from most other tundra flux stations in its continentality. A suite of methods was applied to determine the fluxes of NEE| GPP| R(eco) and methane| including eddy covariance| chambers and leaf cuvettes. Net carbon dioxide fluxes were high compared with other tundra sites| with NEE=-92 g C m(-2) yr(-1)| which is composed of an R(eco)=+141 g C m(-2) yr(-1) and GPP=-232 g C m(-2) yr(-1). This large carbon dioxide sink may be explained by the continental climate| that is reflected in low winter soil temperatures (-14 degrees C)| reducing the respiration rates| and short| relatively warm summers| stimulating high photosynthesis rates. Interannual variability in GPP was dominated by the frequency of light limitation (R(g)<200 W m(-2))| whereas R(eco) depends most directly on soil temperature and time in the growing season| which serves as a proxy of the combined effects of active layer depth| leaf area index| soil moisture and substrate availability. The methane flux| in units of global warming potential| was +28 g C-CO(2)e m(-2) yr(-1)| so that the greenhouse gas balance was -64 g C-CO(2)e m(-2) yr(-1). Methane fluxes depended only slightly on soil temperature and were highly sensitive to hydrological conditions and vegetation composition. 8040,2007,4,4,The Hillarys Transect (2): Validation of satellite-derived sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean off Perth| Western Australia,There has been a heightened interest in sea surface temperature (SST) measurements during the past two decades| particularly on a global scale| due largely to the advent of several El Nino episodes and increasing worldwide concern about global warming. Because of the continuous global measurements of SST that satellites can provide they play a fundamental role in acquiring the data sets necessary for studies of such climate processes. However| the satellite data still need to be validated against in situ measurements in order to assess the accuracy of satellite SST retrieval algorithms. Validation of such SST retrieval algorithms is the primary aim of the SST measurement program component of the Hillarys Transect. This paper describes a methodology for the validation of satellite-derived SST as well as the seasonal variation of SST off the coast of southern Western Australia. It discusses the factors which may affect the quality of in situ validation data and concludes that measurements of the bulk sea surface temperature (BSST) should be the preferred in situ data source for validation of satellite-based algorithms derived from floating buoy measurements. In this study BSST data possessed superior accuracy over the coincident radiometric sea surface skin temperature (SSST) data| and were found to be significantly better for validation purposes under wind speed conditions below 4 ms(-1). (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8382,2007,2,4,The impact of climate change on seasonal cycles,Significant changes have occurred in climate over the past hundred years. Records show that mean temperature on earth rose by approximately 0.6 degrees C during the 20th century. Climate change experts predict the year 2007 will be the warmest year on record globally| beating the record set in 1998 major impact on environment| economy and health. Global warning is one of those environmental issues that are most intimately linked to socio-economic development. A global environmental problem like climate change can only be mitigated by binding international cooperation? 1359,2007,2,4,The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture,Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations| predominantly in developing countries| referred to as "subsistence" or "smallholder" farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics| and from various socioeconomic| demographic| and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However| these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system| and therefore of standard data above the national level| (it) intrinsic characteristics of these systems| particularly their complexity| their location-specificity| and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies| and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed| a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed| and future research needs are identified. 8099,2007,2,4,The impact of climate change on spatially varying groundwater recharge in the grand river watershed (Ontario),Understanding the process of groundwater recharge is fundamental to the management of groundwater resources. Quantifying the future evolution of recharge over time requires not only the reliable forecasting of changes in key climatic variables| but also modelling their impact on the spatially varying recharge process. This paper presents a physically based methodology that can be used to characterize both the temporal and spatial effect of climate change on groundwater recharge. The method| based on the hydrologic model HELP3| can be used to estimate potential groundwater recharge at the regional scale with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study| the method is used to simulate the past conditions| with 40 years of actual weather data| and future changes in the hydrologic cycle of the Grand River watershed. The impact of climate change is modelled by perturbing the model input parameters using predicted changes in the regions climate. The results of the study indicate that the overall rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase as a result of climate change. The higher intensity and frequency of precipitation will also contribute significantly to surface runoff| white global warming may result in increased evapotranspiration rates. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent of ground frost and shift the spring melt from spring toward winter| allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. White many previous climate change impact studies have focused on the temporal changes in groundwater recharge| our results suggest that the impacts can also have high spatial variability. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All. rights reserved. 7782,2007,3,3,The impact of fuel cycle options on the space requirements of a HLW repository,Because of increasing concerns regarding global warming and the longevity of oil and gas reserves| the importance of nuclear energy as a major source of sustainable energy is gaining recognition worldwide. To make nuclear energy truly sustainable| it is necessary to ensure not only the sustainability of the fuel supply but also the sustained availability of waste repositories| especially those for high-level radioactive waste (HLW). From this perspective| the effort to maximize the waste loading density in a given repository is important for easing repository capacity problems. In most cases| the loading of a repository is controlled by the decay heat of the emplaced waste. In this paper| a comparison of the decay heat characteristics of HLW is made among the various fuel cycle options. It is suggested that| for a future fast breeder reactor (FBR) cycle| the removal and burning of minor actinides (MA) would significantly reduce the heat load in waste and would allow for a reduction of repository size by half. 7987,2007,2,4,The impact of global warming and land-use change on the pest status of rice and fruit bugs (Heteroptera) in Japan,Infestation by rice and fruit bugs (Heteroptera) became a nationwide problem in Japan in the early 1970s. Nine rice bug species and three fruit bug species have been designated as economically important. Cropping restrictions for rice produced fallow paddy fields where various rice bugs reproduced and became abundant. Plautia crossota stali| Halyomorpha halys and Glaucias subpunctatus are dominant species of fruit bug that cause damage to a range of fruit crops. However| they require cones in order to complete their life cycle. Coniferous trees planted in the 1950s bore cones after 20 years. A dry and hot summer contributes to good masting the following year and good cone production| in turn| contributes to the abundance of fruit bugs in the third year. Thus| there is strong circumstantial evidence that land-use changes were responsible for the abundance of both rice and fruit bugs during the last 30 years. Poleward range expansion was observed in Nezara viridula| Leptocorisa chinensis| G. subpunctatus and Paradasynus spinosus. A survey conducted to assess winter mortality revealed that every 1 degrees C rise in mean winter temperature resulted in a reduction of about 15% in winter mortality of N. viridula and H. halys in localities where the mean winter temperature ranges from 2 to 6 degrees C. In general| species with low developmental zero (T-0) and small thermal constant (K) show the greatest increase in annual number of generations. Species with a high T-0 for preoviposition period show the greatest increase in reproductive activity| while overwintering insects with a lower T-0 tend to appear earlier in response to the elevation of temperature. Numbers of warnings issued by the prefectures on the occurrence of rice bugs and fruit bugs were correlated. Recent global warming operates in various ways| (e.g. by increasing annual number of generations| reproductive activity and food| to produce such correlation). There are no substantial bug problems in Korea where no significant land-use changes have occurred. Rice bug outbreaks in Japan are predicted to become less frequent in the future| because there is no further scope for cropping restriction. Planting of coniferous trees has been continuously decreasing since 1970| but the area of coniferous forest is still almost the same. This suggests that the fruit bug problem will continue for the foreseeable future. 1492,2007,2,4,The impact of water resources development projects on water vapor pressure trends in a semi-arid region| Turkey,The aim of this study was to investigate long-term seasonal trends and decadal change patterns of monthly mean water vapor pressure (WVP) observation series at 16 meteorological stations scattered point-wisely over the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) area in Turkey| where large-scale soil and water development projects have been put into practice since the 1970s. The record length of WVP observation series of each station varied between 31- and 41-years between 1962 and 2002. The monthly mean WVP observation series of each station was rearranged on seasonal basis. Sequential Mann-Kendall trend test| Sen's slope estimator| and Spearman's rank-order correlation tests were employed for detection of likely trends| and Kruskall-Wallis test was used to detect decadal variations in WVP series of each observation station. A possible area of representation for each meteorological station was determined by using the Thiessen polygons technique in a geographical information systems media. It was found that 15 seasonal WVP series have a positive trend covering 97% of the GAP area in the summer season; although one WVP series has a negative trend direction. However| in the spring season| 33% of the area had a positive trend| and a negative trend did not appear in any stations. WVP records in the winter season showed an increasing trend over 19% of the GAP area| whereas a decreasing trend prevailed in 9% of the area. The study results led us to conclude that the substantial increase of WVP observations in summer season could be attributed to both the shift from rain-fed agriculture to irrigated agriculture being made increasingly spacious year by year and building large water reservoirs in the GAP located in a semi-arid region. The results also indirectly suggested that the historical trends in the WVP parameters might be related to global climate change phenomenon. 8189,2007,2,4,The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate,The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is a landmark agreement that has successfully reduced the global production| consumption| and emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). ODSs are also greenhouse gases that contribute to the radiative forcing of climate change. Using historical ODSs emissions and scenarios of potential emissions| we show that the ODS contribution to radiative forcing most likely would have been much larger if the ODS link to stratospheric ozone depletion had not been recognized in 1974 and followed by a series of regulations. The climate protection already achieved by the Montreal Protocol alone is far larger than the reduction target of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Additional climate benefits that are significant compared with the Kyoto Protocol reduction target could be achieved by actions under the Montreal Protocol| by managing the emissions of substitute fluorocarbon gases and/or implementing alternative gases with lower global warming potentials. 1588,2007,2,4,The influence of major dams on hydrology through the drainage network of the Sacramento River basin| California,This paper reports basinwide patterns of hydrograph alteration via statistical and graphical analysis from a network of long-term streamflow gauges located various distances downstream of major dams and confluences in the Sacramento River basin in California| USA. Streamflow data from 10 gauging stations downstream of major dams were divided into hydrologic series corresponding to the periods before and after dam construction. Pre- and post-dam flows were compared with respect to hydrograph characteristics representing frequency| magnitude and shape: annual flood peak| annual flow trough| annual flood volume| time to flood peak| flood drawdown time and interarrival time. The use of such a suite of characteristics within a statistical and graphical framework allows for generalising distinct strategies of flood control operation that can be identified without any a priori knowledge of operations rules. Dam operation is highly dependent oil the ratio of reservoir capacity to annual flood Volume (impounded runoff index). Dams with high values of this index generally completely cut off flood peaks thus reducing time to peak| drawdown time and annual flood volume. Those with low values conduct early and late flow releases to extend the hydrograph| increasing time to peak| drawdown time and annual flood Volume. The analyses reveal minimal flood control benefits from foothill dams in the lower Sacramento River (i.e. dissipation of the down-valley flood control signal). The lower part of the basin is instead reliant on a weir and bypass system to control lowland flooding. Data from a control gauge (i.e. with no upstream dams) suggest a background signature of global climate change expressed as shortened flood hydrograph failing limbs and lengthened flood interarrival times at low exceedence probabilities. This research has implications for flood control| water resource management| aquatic and riparian ecosystems and for rehabilitation strategies involving flow alteration and/or manipulation of sediment Supplies. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 1585,2007,2,4,The influence of temperature and precipitation climate regimes on vegetation dynamics in the US Great Plains: a satellite bioclimatology case study,Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data are widely used in global-change research| yet relationships between the NDVI and ecoclimatological variables are not fully understood. This study attempts to model climate-driven vegetation dynamics through the integration of satellite-derived NDVI data with climate data collected from ground-based meteorological stations in the US Great Plains. Monthly maximum value composites of NDVI data (8-km resolution) and monthly temperature and precipitation records from 305 stations were collected from 1982 to 2001. Analyses involving deseasonalized datasets supported temperature as the dominant climate regime| demonstrating a higher average NDVI-temperature correlation (r=0.73) than the NDVI-precipitation relationship (r50.38). Cluster analysis was used to develop a climate regionalization scheme based primarily on temperature| and NDVI characteristics of each subregion were compared. In the context of global climate change| findings from this study emphasize the influence of temperature and precipitation variability over vegetation cover in the Great Plains region. 8110,2007,2,4,The influence of trophic status and large-scale climatic change on the structure of fish communities in Perialpine lakes,1. A recurrent question in ecology is the influence of environmental factors| particularly nutrients and climatic variables| on community structure and functioning| and their interaction with internal community processes (e.g. competition). 2. Perialpine lakes have been subject to two main kinds of human-induced changes over the last 50 years: eutrophication-reoligotrophication| represented by lake-specific changes in total phosphorus concentration (TP)| and long-term global climatic change| captured by average winter temperature (AWT). 3. Changes in fish communities (abundance of seven species from fishery data) in 11 Perialpine lakes during 31 years (1970-2000) were investigated in relation to variation in TP and AWT using models incorporating the effects of fish maturation age| and potentially discriminating effects on adult survival and recruitment. 4. We show that phosphorus concentration affects fish abundance in species-specific ways. These effects are mediated by recruitment rather than by adult survival. Phosphorus effects are probably modulated by interspecific interactions| as increasing TP enhances total community biomass| which in turn is either positively or negatively associated with species abundance depending on species position in trophic chains. 5. Climatic change has very little effect on fish abundances| which is not consistent with the prediction of larger changes in species near their southern distribution boundary. 6. We propose several hypotheses to account for those findings| and place our study in the wider framework of community ecology. 7822,2007,2,3,The issue of global warming and changes in the runoff of Russian rivers,Maps of a series of characteristics were calculated and constructed for RF territory| including mean values of changes in runoff depths (evaluated by the main climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) due to greenhouse effect estimated for 2040-2070; root-mean-square deviations from these values; relative errors of the estimates; mean values of changes in the runoff depth for different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions; absolute and relative deviations of these values from their means for scenarios and integration of models. Chronological forecasts of possible changes in the mean runoff values for the rivers of Volga| Northern Dvina| Pechora| Ob| Yenisei| Lena| Yana| Indigirka| Kolyma| and Amur up to 2100 are calculated| and the root-mean-square errors of these characteristics are evaluated for the maximum number of uncertainties in the forecast. The greenhouse effect is shown to be less significant| other factors being the same| for rivers with small drainage basins and rivers with small modulus of flow. 8030,2007,2,4,The melting of floating ice raises the ocean level,It is shown that the melting of ice floating on the ocean will introduce a volume of water about 2.6 per cent greater than that of the originally displaced sea water. The melting of floating ice in a global warming will cause the ocean to rise. If all the extant sea ice and floating shelf ice melted| the global sea level would rise about 4 cm. The sliding of grounded ice into the sea| however| produces a mean water level rise in two parts; some of the rise is delayed. The first part| while the ice floats| is equal to the volume of displaced sea water. The second part| equal to 2.6 per cent of the first| is contributed as it melts. These effects result from the difference in volume of equal weights of fresh and salt water. This component of sea rise is apparently unrecognized in the literature to date| although it can be interpreted as a form of halosteric sea level change by regarding the displaced salt water and the meltwater (even before melting) as a unit. Although salinity changes are known to affect sea level| all existing analyses omit our calculated volume change. We present a protocol that can be used to calculate global sea level rise on the basis of the addition of meltwater from grounded and floating ice; of course thermosteric volume change must be added. 8025,2007,2,4,The naked fox: hypotrichosis in arctic foxes (Alopex lagopus),We describe the manifestations and occurrence of hypotrichosis in arctic foxes and compare it to the Samson character in red foxes. During 1979-2005| we collected carcasses of both normal and hypotrichotic arctic foxes from foxhunters in Iceland for macroscopic and microscopic examination and study of demography. We obtained live pups for breeding and transmission experiments in captivity during 1985-1992. Placental scar counts showed that hypotrichotic vixens were more fertile than normal vixens and generally all their pups were hypotrichotic. Fertility in hypotrichotic vixens was positively correlated with winter air temperature but not in normal vixens. Hypotrichotic males were less likely to breed than normal males and probably had a higher mortality rate than either hypotrichotic females or normal foxes. Hypotrichosis can be transmitted between adult foxes. Microscopic examination revealed prominent chronic inflammation of the dermis in hypotrichotic specimens| degenerative changes| vacuolisation and necrosis of hair follicles. Hypotrichosis persists in coastal areas with mild winters and may become more common with global warming. 8356,2007,3,3,The Optical Measurement of CO(2) Clathrate Hydrate Membrane Thickness,The technology of the deep-ocean CO(2) storage is expected to directly mitigate the source of the global warming. At deep-ocean condition above 4.45 MPa and below 283 K| the CO(2) clathrate hydrate crystals are formed as membrane at the interface between the liquid-water phase and the liquid-CO(2) phase. Since the strength and the thickness of the hydrate membrane are crucial to the storage period| it is important to experimentally measure the mechanical characteristics of the CO(2) hydrate membrane and the hydrate droplet. In the present study| the CO(2) hydrate membrane thickness is measured by using the laser-light interference method. It is clarified that the present method by using the beam light interference method is applicable to measure the CO(2) hydrate membrane. The hydrate membrane thickness is estimated to be about 7 mu m similar to 12 mu m at 10MPa and 275 K similar to 283 K. It is also clarified that thickness of the CO(2) hydrate membrane is in proportion to the temperature. 7999,2007,5,4,The Palaeocene-Eocene carbon isotope excursion: constraints from individual shell planktonic foraminifer records,The Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) is characterized by a global negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) and widespread dissolution of seafloor carbonate sediments. The latter feature supports the hypothesis that the PETM and CIE were caused by the rapid release of a large mass (greater than 2000 Ct C) of 12 C-enriched carbon. The source of this carbon| however| remains a mystery. Possible sources include volcanically driven thermal combustion of organic-rich sediment| dissociation of seafloor methane hydrates and desiccation and oxidation of soil/sediment organics. A key constraint on the source(s) is the rate at which the carbon was released. Fast rates would be consistent with a catastrophic event| e.g. massive methane hydrate dissociation| whereas slower rates might implicate other processes. The PETM carbon flux is currently constrained by high-resolution marine and terrestrial records of the CIE. In pelagic bulk carbonate records| the onset of the CIE is often expressed as a single- or multiple-step excursion extending over 10(4) years. Individual planktonic shell records| in contrast| always show a single-step CIE| with either pre-excursion or excursion isotope values| but no transition values. Benthic foraminifera| records| which are less complete owing to extinction and diminutive assemblages| show a delayed excursion. Here| we compile and evaluate the individual planktonic shell isotope data| from several localities. Ve find that the most expanded records consistently show a bimodal isotope distribution pattern regardless of location| water depth or depositional facies. This suggests one of several possibilities: (i) the isotopic composition of the surface ocean/atmosphere declined in a geologic instant ( < 500 yr)| (ii) that during the onset of the CIE| most shells of mixed-layer planktonic foraminifera were dissolved| or (iii) the abundances or shell production of these species temporarily declined| possibly due to initial pH changes.
8045,2007,5,4,The Paleocene-Eocene carbon isotope excursion in higher plant organic matter: Differential fractionation of angiosperms and conifers in the Arctic,A study of upper Paleocene-lower Eocene (P-E) sediments deposited on the Lomonosov Ridge in the central Arctic Ocean reveals relatively high abundances of terrestrial biomarkers. These include dehydroabietane and simonellite derived from conifers (gymnosperms) and a tetra-aromatic triterpenoid derived from angiosperms. The relative percentage of the angiosperm biomarker of the summed angiosperm +conifer biomarkers was increased at the end of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM)| different when observed with pollen counts which showed a relative decrease in angiosperm pollen. Stable carbon isotopic analysis of these biomarkers shows that the negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) during the PETM amounts to 3 parts per thousand for both conifer biomarkers| dehydroabietane and simonellite| comparable to the magnitude of the CIE inferred from marine carbonates| but significantly lower than the 4.5 parts per thousand of the terrestrial C(29) n-alkane [M. Pagani| N. Pedentchouk| M. Huber| A. Sluijs| S. Schouten| H. Brinkhuis| J.S. Sinninghe Damste| G.R. Dickens| and the IODP Expedition 302 Expedition Scientists (2006)| Arctic's hydrology during global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Nature| 442| 671-675.]| which is a compound sourced by both conifers and angiosperms. Conspicuously| the angiosperm-sourced aromatic triterpane shows a much larger CIE of 6 parts per thousand and suggests that angiosperms increased in their carbon isotopic fractionation during the PETM. Our results thus indicate that the 4.5 parts per thousand C(29) n-alkane CIE reported previously represents the average CIE of conifers and angiosperms at this site and suggest that the large and variable CIE observed in terrestrial records may be partly explained by the variable contributions of conifers and angiosperms. The differential response in isotopic fractionation of angiosperms and conifers points to different physiological responses of these vegetation types to the rise in temperature| humidity| and greenhouse gases during the PETM. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1545,2007,2,4,The potential bioavailability of organic C| N| and P through enzyme hydrolysis in soils of the Mojave Desert,Increases in the growth rate of plants and microbes in the Mojave Desert in response to predicted increases in precipitation and CO(2) due to global climate change may induce nutrient limitations. This study was designed to measure the pool of potentially bioavailable nutrients in soils of the Mojave Desert. Soils were collected from shrub and interspace microsites and then subjected to amendment with buffered solutions of an excess of various enzymes. The products of each enzyme reaction were then measured and the maximum quantity of hydrolyzable substrates was calculated. In interspace and shrub microsite soils| respectively| 14.5 and 9.7% of the organic C in the form cellulose| 60.0-97.8% and 61.2-100.0% of the organic N in the form protein| and 44.0 and 57.5% of the organic P was hydrolyzable. There were significant differences between microsites for hydrolyzable substrate using all enzyme amendments| except protease. We propose that accumulations of hydrolyzable organic C| N| and P in the Mojave Desert could be a result of the persistently dry soil conditions often found in desert ecosystems and the immobilization of enzymes| which may result in low diffusivity of soil substrates and enzymes and| accordingly| little degradation of organic C| N| and P. Alternatively| rapid nutrient cycling and immobilization by soil microorganisms could account for accumulations of organic C| N| and P. Further refinement of the methods used in this study could lead to a valuable tool for the assessment of potential bioavailability of nutrients in a variety of soils. 8057,2007,3,4,The potential for soil carbon sequestration in three tropical dryland farming systems of Africa and Latin America: A modelling approach,Historically| agriculturally induced CO(2) release from soils has contributed to rising levels in the atmosphere. However| by using appropriate management| soils can be turned into carbon sinks. Many of the dryland regions of the world are characterised by degraded soils| a high incidence of poverty and a low capacity to invest in agriculture. Two well-proven soil organic matter models (CENTURY 4.0 and RothC-26 3) were used two explore the effects of modifying agricultural practices to increase soil carbon stocks. The changes to land management were chosen to avoid any significant increase in energy input whilst using technologies that would be available without radically altering the current agricultural methodology. Case studies were selected from dryland farming systems in Nigeria| Sudan and Argentina. Modelling showed that it would be possible to make alterations within the structure of the current farming systems to convert these soils from carbon sources to net sinks. Annual rates of carbon sequestration in the range 0.08-0.17 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) averaged over the next 50 years could be obtained. The most effective practices were those that maximised the input of organic matter| particularly farmyard manure (up to 0.09 Mg ha(-1) year(-1))| maintaining trees (up to 0.15 Mg ha(-1) year(-1)) and adopting zero tillage (up to 0.04 Mg ha(-1) year(-1)). Verification of these predictions will require experimental data collected from field studies. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8276,2007,3,3,The potential of cropping systems and soil amendments for carbon sequestration in soils under long-term experiments in subtropical India,An understanding of the dynamics of carbon (C) stock in soils| as impacted by management strategies| is necessary to identify the pathways of C sequestration in soils and for maintaining soil organic C (SOC) at a level critical for upkeeping soil health and also for restraining global warming. This is more important in tropical and subtropical region where soils are inherently low in organic C content and the production system is fragile. We evaluated the long-term role of crop residue C inputs to soil in SOC sequestration and also the critical value of C inputs for maintenance of SOC across five different rice-based cropping systems and four soil management practices including a fallow (no cultivation since initiation of the experiments) using five long-term (7-36 years) fertility experiments in subtropical India. Cropping per se always caused a net depletion of SOC. Such depletion was inversely proportional to the amount of crop residue C incorporated into the soils (r=-0.92| P=0.001). Balanced fertilization with NPK| however| caused an enrichment (9.3-51.8% over the control) of SOC| its extent being influenced by the cropping systems. Long-term application of organic amendments (5-10 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) through farmyard manure (FYM) or compost could increase SOC hardly by 10.7% constituting only 18% of the applied C| the rest getting lost through oxidation. The total quantity of soil C sequestered varied from -11.5 to 14.5 Mg C ha(-1) and was linearly related (r(2)=0.40| P=0.005) with cumulative crop residue C inputs to the soils. On an average| the rate of its conversion to SOC came out to be 6.4%. This was more in presence of added organics (6.9%) than in its absence (4.2%). For sustenance of SOC level (zero change due to cropping) we found that a minimum quantity of 2.9 Mg C is required to be added per hectare per annum as inputs. The cropping systems and the management practices that could provide C input higher than the above critical level are likely to sustain the SOC level and maintain good soil health in the subtropical regions of the Indian subcontinent. 8171,2007,3,3,The potential of greenhouse sinks to underwrite improved land management,The current agricultural systems of broad areas of Australia are unsustainable| with large projected increases in salinization| decreases in water quality| wind erosion| and losses of biodiversity. It is well known that these problems can be partially resolved by farmland reforestation; however| a major issue is financing the scale of activity required. The international response to global warming| the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol| includes provisions that enable greenhouse sinks (sequestration of carbon in soils and vegetation) to be used by parties to fulfil their obligations. The Kyoto Protocol also allows for trading in emission reductions| and this opens the possibility that investment in carbon sinks may help underwrite broader natural resource management objectives. This paper examines the possibilities for improved land management in Western Australia arising from the development of carbon sinks by considering: (a) the likelihood of a carbon market developing and the likely depth of that market as a result of current national and international policies| (b) the data available to provide estimates on different types of sinks| and (c) the likely benefits of wide-scale sink investment. It was estimated that the total amount of carbon that could be sequestered by reforesting 16.8 Mha of cleared farmland is 2200 Mt CO2 -e| and between 290 and 1170 Mt CO2-e by destocking 94.8 Mha of rangelands. There were insufficient data to produce estimates of sequestration following changes in tillage practice in cropping systems or the revegetation of already salinized land. We conclude that carbon sinks are only likely to become profitable as a broad-scale stand-alone enterprise when carbon prices reach AUD$15/t CO2-e| with this threshold value varying with carbon yield and project costs. Below this price| their value can be significant as an adjunct to reforestation schemes that are aimed at providing other products (wood| pulp| bioenergy) and land and water conservation benefits. Irrespective of this| carbon sinks provide an opportunity to both sequester carbon in a least-cost fashion and improve soil and watershed management. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 7789,2007,2,4,The prediction of environmental fate for trifluoromethyl sulfur pentafluoride (SF(5)CF(3))| a potent greenhouse gas,Trifluoromethyl sulfur pentafluoride (SF(5)CF(3)) which is a newly discovered compound in the troposphere and chemically similar to SF(6)| has been listed as a potent greenhouse gas because of its high global warming potential close to 20|000 and its long lifetime of about 800 years in the atmosphere. From the environmental and ecological points of view| it is urgent to understand the environmental fate of this unique material| including octanol-water partition coefficient (K(OW))| water solubility (S) and Henry's law constant (K(H)). This article aimed at introducing the greenhouse gas with strong radiative force in its physiochemical properties and potential uses| and predicting its environmental fate on the basis of available methods. The predicted value of log K(OW)| which was obtained to be about 2.42 at 298.15 K| revealed that it tends to be hydrophobic and partitioned into organic matter| or lipids (fatty tissue). From the predicted values of S and KH| it was further showed that SF(5)CF(3) has exceptionally low solubility in water and extremely high vaporization from the water bodies. These predicted distribution properties have led to the suggestion that it will sink into the atmosphere if it is released into the environment. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8020,2007,3,4,The quest for safe drinking water: An example from Guinea-Bissau (West Africa),While humans require water for life| one-sixth of our species lives without access to safe water. In Africa| the situation is particularly acute because of global warming| the progression of the Sahara desert| civil unrest and poor governance| population growth| migration and poverty. In rural areas| the lack of adequate safe water and sanitary infrastructures leaves millions with doubtful water quality| increasing the harshness of daily life. In this paper| a pilot study was conducted during the wet season on Bolama Island (Guinea-Bissau| West Africa)| a UNESCO Man and the Biosphere Reserve. Twenty-eight shallow wells| supplying water to most of the population| were sampled for microbiological| physical and chemical water quality characteristics. A ten-parameter water quality index (WQI) adapted to tropical conditions was applied to compare the different wells. About 79% of the wells showed moderate to heavy fecal contamination. From the surveyed parameters| it was found that chemical contamination was less important| although all samples were acidic| with the pH averaging 5.12 +/- 0.08. The WQI was 43 +/- 4% (0%-worst; 100%-best quality)| showing that the water from the majority of wells was polluted but should be suitable for domestic use after appropriate treatment. At the onset of the wet season| diarrhea represented 11.5% of all medical cases| 92.5% of which were children aged <15. This paper suggests inexpensive steps to reduce the fecal contamination and control the pH in order to increase the potability of the well water and| concomitantly| to raise the living standards of the population in one of the poorest countries of the world. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8234,2007,3,3,The regional greenhouse gas initiative - Taking action in Maine,As international and domestic pressure builds on the United States to address climate change| much has been made of regional| state| and citywide plans that have arisen to address global warming. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative moves toward implementation in the seven northeastern and mid-Atlantic states that signed the original agreement. The first regional mandatory program to address climate change in the United States and encompassing an area that accounts for approximately one-fifth of the total U.S. population| efforts will likely have significant impact on. other initiatives under way across the United States and other countries. 1523,2007,3,2,The regrets of procrastination in climate policy,Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO(2) emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO(2) emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO(2) emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO(2) abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence| the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination - the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change. 8004,2007,2,4,The response of the extratropical hydrological cycle to global warming,The change in the hydrological cycle in the extratropics under global warming is studied using the climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. The changes in hydrological quantities are analyzed with respect to the increases expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) equation| which describes the rate of increase of a hydrological quantity per temperature increase. The column-integrated water vapor increases at a rate close to the C-C rate| which is expected if relative humidity remains nearly constant. The poleward moisture transport and the precipitation increase with temperature at a rate less than the C C rate| with the precipitation increasing the least. In addition| the intermodel variance of poleward moisture transport and precipitation is explained significantly better when the zonal-mean zonal wind change as well as the temperature change is taken into account. The percent increase in precipitation per temperature increase is smallest during the warm season when energy constraints on the hydrological cycle are more important. In contrast to other hydrological quantities| the changes in evaporation in the extratropics are not explained well by the temperature or zonal wind change. Instead| a significant portion of the intermodel spread of evaporation change is linked to the spread in the poleward ocean heat transport change. 8063,2007,5,4,The role of climatic change in the evolution of mammals,The paleontological record of mammals offers many examples of evolutionary change| which are well documented at many levels of the biological hierarchy-at the level of species (and above)| populations| morphology| and| in ideal cases| even genes. The evolutionary changes developed against| backdrop of climatic change that took place on different scales| from rapid shifts in climate state that took only a few decades| to those that occurred over a millennial scale| to regular glacial-interglacial transitions with cycles of roughly a hundred thousand years| to long-term warming or cooling trends over hundreds of thousands to millions of years. Are there certain scales of climatic change that accelerate evolution? And what will the current global warming event do to evolutionary rates? Here we use paleontology-the study of fossils-to illustrate the scientific method behind answering such complex questions| and to suggest that current rates of global warming are far too fast to influence evolution much and instead are likely to accelerate extinctions. 7957,2007,2,3,The role of Northern sea ice cover for the weakening of the thermohaline circulation under global warming,An increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the resulting global warming are typically associated with a weakening of the thermohaline circulation ( THC) in model scenarios. For the models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP)| this weakening shows a significant ( r = 0.62) dependence on the initial THC strength; it is stronger for initially strong overturning. The authors propose a physical mechanism for this phenomenon based on an analysis of additional simulations with the coupled climate models CLIMBER- 2 and CLIMBER- 3 alpha. The mechanism is based on the fact that sea ice cover greatly reduces heat loss from the ocean. The extent of sea ice is strongly influenced by the near- surface atmospheric temperature ( SAT) in the North Atlantic but also by the strength of the THC itself| which transports heat to the convection sites. Consequently| sea ice tends to extend farther south for weaker THC. Initially larger sea ice cover responds more strongly to atmospheric warming; thus| sea ice retreats more strongly for an initially weaker THC. This sea ice retreat tends to strengthen ( i. e.| stabilize) the THC because the sea ice retreat allows more oceanic heat loss. This stabilizing effect is stronger for runs with weak initial THC and extensive sea ice cover. Therefore| an initially weak THC weakens less under global warming. In contrast to preindustrial climate| sea ice melting presently plays the role of an external forcing with respect to THC stability. 7736,2007,2,4,The sensitivity of carbon fluxes to spring warming and summer drought depends on plant functional type in boreal forest ecosystems,Warming during late winter and spring in recent decades has been credited with increasing high northern latitude CO2 uptake| but it is unclear how different species and plant functional types contribute to this response. To address this| we measured net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at a deciduous broadleaf (aspen and willow) forest and an evergreen conifer (black spruce) forest in interior Alaska over a 3-year period. We partitioned NEE into gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) components| assessing the impact of interannual climate variability on these fluxes during spring and summer. We found that interannual variability in both spring and summer NEE was greatest at the deciduous forest. Increases in spring air temperatures between 2002 and 2004 caused GPP to increase during the early part of the growing season (April| May| and June)| with a 74% increase at the deciduous forest and a 16% increase at the evergreen forest. Re increased in parallel| by 61 % and 15%| respectively. In contrast| a summer drought during 2004 caused GPP during August to decrease by 12% at the deciduous forest and by 9% at the evergreen forest. Concurrent increases in R-e| by 21% and 2% for the two forests| further contributed to a reduction in net carbon uptake during the drought. Over the growing season (April-September) net carbon uptake increased by 40% at the deciduous forest and 3% at the evergreen forest in 2004 as compared with 2002. These results suggest that deciduous forests may contribute disproportionately to variability in atmospheric CO2 concentrations within the northern hemisphere and that the carbon balance of deciduous forests may have a greater sensitivity to future changes in climate. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8064,2007,5,3,The sensitivity of ECHAM4/ML to a double CO2 scenario for the Late Miocene and the comparison to terrestrial proxy data,For the Tortonian| Steppuhn et al. [Steppuhn| A.| Micheels| A.| Geiger| G.| Mosbrugger| V.| 2006. Reconstructing the Late Miocene climate and oceanic heat flux using the AGCM ECHAM4 coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model with adjusted flux correction. Palaeogeography| Palaeoclimatology| Palaeoecology| 238| 399-423] perform a model simulation which considers a generally lower palaeorography| a weaker ocean heat transport and an atmospheric COZ concentration of 353 ppm. The Tortonian simulation of Steppuhn et al. [Steppuhn| A.| Micheels| A.| Geiger| G.| Mosbrugger| V| 2006. Reconstructing the Late Miocene climate and oceanic heat flux using the AGCM ECHAM4 coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model with adjusted flux correction. Palaeogeography| Palaeoclimatology| Palaeoecology| 238| 399-423] demonstrates some realistic trends: the high latitudes are warmer than today and the meridional temperature gradient is reduced. However| the Tortonian run also indicates some insufficiencies such as too cool mid-latitudes which can be due to an underestimated pCO(2) in the atmosphere. As a sensitivity study| we perform a further model experiment for which we additionally increase the atmospheric carbon dioxide (700 ppm). According to this CO2 sensitivity experiment| we find a global warming and a globally more intense water cycle as compared to the previous Tortonian run. Particularly the high latitudes are warmer in the Tortonian CO2 sensitivity run which leads to a lower amount of Arctic sea ice and a reduced equator-to-pole temperature difference. Our Tortonian CO2 sensitivity study basically agrees with results from recent climate model experiments which consider an increase of CO2 during the next century (e.g. [Cubasch| U.| Meehl| G.A.| Boer| G.J.| Stouffer| R.J.| Dix| M.| Noda| A.| Senior| C.A.| Raper| S.| Yap| K.S.| 2001. Projections of Future Climate Change. In: Houghton| J.T.| Y Ding| D.J. Griggs| M. Noguer| P.J. van der Linden| X. Dai| K. Maskell| C.A. Johnson (eds.)| Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press| Cambridge| 525-582]) suggesting that the climatic response on a higher atmospheric CO2 concentration is almost independent from the different settings of boundary conditions (Tortonian versus today). To validate the Tortonian model simulations| we perform a quantitative comparison with terrestrial proxy data. This comparison demonstrates that the Tortonian CO2 sensitivity experiment tends to be more realistic than the previous Tortonian simulation by Steppuhn et al. [Steppuhn| A.| Micheels| A.| Geiger| G.| Mosbrugger| V| 2006. Reconstructing the Late Miocene climate and oceanic heat flux using the ALCM ECHAM4 coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model with adjusted flux correction. Palaeogeography| Palaeoclimatology| Palaeoecology| 238| 399-423]. However| a high carbon dioxide concentration of 700 ppm is questionable for the Late Miocene| and it cannot explain shortcomings of our Tortonian run with 'normal' CO2. In order to fully understand the Late Miocene climate| further model experiments should also consider the palaeovegetation. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 8130,2007,2,3,The sensitivity of the rate of transient climate change to ocean physics perturbations,Perturbed physics" ensembles of Hadley Centre climate models have recently been used to quantify uncertainties in atmospheric and surface climate feedbacks under enhanced levels of CO2| and to produce probabilistic estimates of the magnitude of equilibrium climate change. The rate of time-dependent climate change is determined both by the strength of atmosphere-surface climate feedbacks and by the strength of processes that remove heat from the surface to the deep ocean. Here a first small ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model experiments in which the parameters that control three key ocean physical processes are perturbed is described. It is found that the perturbations have little impact on the rate of ocean heat uptake| and thus have little impact on the time-dependent rate of global warming. Under the idealized scenario of 1% yr(-1) compounded CO2 increase| the spread in the transient climate response is of the order of a few tenths of a degree| in contrast to the spread of order of 1 caused by perturbing atmospheric model parameters. 8008,2007,2,4,The shrinking glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can global warming be blamed?,Around the globe| mighty glaciers are retreating. In the European Alps and many other mid- and high-latitude locations| evidence clearly implicates global climate change—heat fluxes from warm air feeding processes that turn mighty glaciers into rivers of meltwater. High-altitude glaciers in the tropics are melting too; the area of the ice cap atop Kilimanjaro in tropical East Africa has shrunk more than 90 percent in a century and become a global-warming poster child. But Mote and Kaser say that the Kilimanjaro glaciers are not melting but sublimating—turning straight to vapor—under the direct action of solar radiation at temperatures that remain below freezing. Whatever is happening elsewhere| Kilimanjaro's ice seems not to be succumbing to climate change.
8224,2007,2,3,The South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations,In this paper the extensive integrations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are used to examine the relationship between ENSO and monsoons at interannual and decadal time scales. The study begins with an analysis of the monsoon simulation in the twentieth-century integrations. Six of the 18 models were found to have a reasonably realistic representation of monsoon precipitation climatology. For each of these six models SST and anomalous precipitation evolution along the equatorial Pacific during El Nino events display considerable differences when compared to observations. Out of these six models only four [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model versions 2.0 and 2.1 (GFDL_CM_2.0 and GFDL_CM_2.1)| Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) model| and Max Planck Institute ECHAM5 (MPI_ECHAM5)] exhibit a robust ENSO monsoon contemporaneous teleconnection| including the known inverse relationship between ENSO and rainfall variations over India. Lagged correlations between the all-India rainfall (AIR) index and Nino-3.4 SST reveal that three models represent the timing of the teleconnection| including the spring predictability barrier| which is manifested as the transition from positive to negative correlations prior to the monsoon onset. Furthermore| only one of these three models (GFDL_CM_2.1) captures the observed phase lag with the strongest anticorrelation of SST peaking 2-3 months after the summer monsoon| which is partially attributable to the intensity of the simulated El Nino itself. The authors find that the models that best capture the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection are those that correctly simulate the timing and location of SST and diabatic heating anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and the associated changes to the equatorial Walker circulation during El Nino events. The strength of the AIR-Nino-3.4 SST correlation in the model runs waxes and wanes to some degree on decadal time scales. The overall magnitude and time scale for this decadal modulation in most of the models is similar to that seen in observations. However| there is little consistency in the phase among the realizations| suggesting a lack of predictability of the decadal modulation of the monsoon-ENSO relationship. The analysis was repeated for each of the four models using results from integrations in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was raised to twice preindustrial values. From these "best" models in the double CO2 simulations there are increases in both the mean monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent (by 5%-25%) and in its interannual variability (5%-10%). For each model the ENSO-monsoon correlation in the global warming runs is very similar to that in the twentieth-century runs| suggesting that the ENSO monsoon connection will not weaken as global climate warms. This result| though plausible| needs to be taken with some caution because of the diversity in the simulation of ENSO variability in the coupled models that have been analyzed. Implications of the present results for monsoon prediction are discussed. 8160,2007,3,4,The state of the art of electric| hybrid| and fuel cell vehicles,With the more stringent regulations on emissions and fuel economy| global warming| and constraints on energy resources| the electric| hybrid| and fuel cell vehicles have attracted more and more attention by automakers| governments| and customers. Research and development efforts have been focused on developing novel concepts| low-cost systems| and reliable hybrid electric powertrain. This paper reviews the state of the art of electric| hybrid| and fuel cell vehicles. The topologies for each category and the enabling technologies are discussed. 8384,2007,2,4,The status of the coral reefs of French scattered islands in the Indian Ocean,Together with La Reunion and Mayotte Islands| Scattered Islands make up French Indian Ocean Territories (FIOT) which all possess highly ecologically sensitive natural habitats of major value for migrant species (turtles| seabirds| mannuals). As a contribution to the national action plan of IFRECOR (French initiative on coral reefs) we set up during the period 2002-2005 a survey and monitoring program in order to increase the knowledge of the still poorly known coral reefs of these islands scattered from North to South in the Mozarnbique Channel and in central Indian Ocean. Results were particularly focused on the geomorphological mapping of shallow marine habitats and on a structural and functional approach of fish| coral and mollusc communities. Additional approaches with rapid assessment methods remained non exhaustive but neverthe less allow a first integrated diagnosis of the patrimonial value of the coral sanctuaries of Scattered Islands and to propose decision-making tools for identifying applied and fundamental axes of research as well as actions of monitoring adapted particularly to vulnerability factors and global warming. 1478,2007,2,4,Thermal stress and coral cover as drivers of coral disease outbreaks,Very little is known about how environmental changes such as increasing temperature affect disease dynamics in the ocean| especially at large spatial scales. We asked whether the frequency of warm temperature anomalies is positively related to the frequency of coral disease across 1|500 km of Australia's Great Barrier Reef. We used a new high-resolution satellite dataset of ocean temperature and 6 y of coral disease and coral cover data from annual surveys of 48 reefs to answer this question. We found a highly significant relationship between the frequencies of warm temperature anomalies and of white syndrome| an emergent disease| or potentially| a group of diseases| of Pacific reef- building corals. The effect of temperature was highly dependent on coral cover because white syndrome outbreaks followed warm years| but only on high (> 50%) cover reefs| suggesting an important role of host density as a threshold for outbreaks. Our results indicate that the frequency of temperature anomalies| which is predicted to increase in most tropical oceans| can increase the susceptibility of corals to disease| leading to outbreaks where corals are abundant. 7888,2007,2,4,Thermodependent bacterial pathogens and mass mortalities in temperate benthic communities: a new case of emerging disease linked to climate change,In the temperate north-western Mediterranean Sea| large-scale disease outbreaks in benthic invertebrate species have recently occurred during climatic anomalies characterized by elevated seawater temperatures. One of the most affected species was the red gorgonian Paramuricea clavata| a key species of highly diverse communities dwelling in dim-lit habitats in the Mediterranean. From diseased P. clavata colonies| we isolated culturable bacteria associated to tissue lesions in order to investigate their potential as pathogens. Inoculation of four bacterial isolates onto healthy P. clavata in aquaria caused disease signs similar to those observed during the 2003 mortality event. The infection process was dependent on elevated seawater temperatures| in a range of values consistent with recordings performed in the field during the climatic anomalies. Among the four isolates| we identified a Vibrio coralliilyticus strain that showed virulence to P. clavata. This strain was re-isolated from diseased colonies during the experimentations. V. coralliilyticus has been previously identified as a thermodependent pathogen of a tropical coral species| emphasizing a causal role of this infectious agent in the P. clavata disease. Taking into consideration predicted global warming over the coming decades| a better understanding of the factors and mechanisms that affect the disease process will be of critical importance in predicting future threats to temperate gorgonians communities in the Mediterranean Sea. 7850,2007,2,4,Thousand-year-long Chinese time series reveals climatic forcing of decadal locust dynamics,For > 1|000 years| Chinese officials have recorded the annual abundance of the oriental migratory locust Locusta migratoria manilensis| with the ultimate aim of predicting locust outbreaks. Linking these records with temperature and precipitation reconstructions for the period 957-1956| we show that decadal mean locust abundance is highest during cold and wet periods. These periods coincide with above-average frequencies of both floods and droughts in the lower Yangtze River| phenomena that are associated with locust outbreaks. Our results imply differential ecological responses to interdecadal and interannual climatic variability. Such frequency-dependent effects deserve increased attention in global warming studies. 8326,2007,2,4,Tidal regimes of temperate coasts and their influences on aerial exposure for intertidal organisms,Thermal stress and desiccation are the main causes of the upper limit to the distribution of organisms on rocky shores. The timing of low tides plays a key role in determining the exposure of intertidal organisms to potentially stressful desiccation and thermal conditions| and has recently been suggested as pivotal in predicting the effects of global warming. Using data generated from tidal harmonics for evenly spaced stations of temperate latitude (23 to 50 degrees)| we compare the amount of time exposed to low tide during summer middays along 7 different coastlines (East Australia| east and west coasts of North and South America| and the west coasts of southern Africa and northern Africa-western Europe) for 3 standardized tidal heights. Eastern Australia and western South America consistently showed the greatest amount of time exposed to low tides during summer middays at all 3 tidal heights. Some of the highest exposures were observed in western North America in the higher intertidal| but were among the lowest in the mid- and lower intertidal levels. The east coast of North America showed intermediate exposure in the high intertidal| but exposure was among the highest at mid- and lower tidal levels. Among the lowest exposure times were observed at the remaining 3 coasts at all 3 tidal levels. Therefore| predictions about the consequences of climate change on coastal organisms will vary across continents. 7972,2007,3,4,Trading away damage: Quantifying environmental leakage through consumption-based| life-cycle analysis,This research quantifies the extent to which the US has shifted the environmental impact associated with the goods it consumes to other countries through trade. To achieve this| we use a life-cycle| consumption-based approach to measure the environmental impacts embodied in US trade activities for global warming potential (GWP)| energy| toxics| and the criteria air pollutants. We use these values to determine the amount of environmental impact "leaked" from current| production-based approaches to analyzing national environmental trends for the years 1998-2004. We find that in 2004| with reasonable assumptions about the environmental intensity of imports and exports| this leakage exceeds 10% for all studied impacts| exceeds 20% for GWP| energy| and most criteria air pollutants| and exceeds 80% for lead emissions and toxics. By including the environmental impacts embodied in trade activities into national environmental accounts| we provide consumption-based| US per capita| environmental impacts| which we use to evaluate the relationship between income and environmental impact. We find evidence for rising per capita environmental impacts over time in the US| contra the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications for international environmental policy of increasing embodied emissions in trade. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8192,2007,5,4,Transient drying during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM): Analysis of paleosols in the bighorn basin| Wyoming,The Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a transient episode of global warming that occurred at the Paleocene/Eocene boundary. The event is marked by a sharp decline in carbon isotope values that is globally recognized from marine and continental sections. The negative isotope excursion has been attributed to the release of methane hydrates from oceanic sediments. Although studies concur that temperatures rose during the PETM| changes in precipitation are not well understood. Alluvial paleosols in the Bighorn Basin that span the PETM interval contain a continuous and highly resolved record of climate including information on precipitation. They show a significant but transient decrease in precipitation at the onset of the PETM but a gradual return to pre-PETM levels by the end of the interval. The paleosols also show additional| although less dramatic| wet/dry cycles within the PETM interval that may correspond to precessional cycles that have been identified in the marine record of the PETM. This study counters interpretations of increased precipitation for Wyoming at this time and shows the importance of detailed case studies of continental strata to test climatic generalizations and models that have been developed for PETM precipitation patterns. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8216,2007,3,3,Transition period fuel cycle from current to next generation reactors for Japan,Long-term energy security and global warming prevention can be achieved by a sustainable electricity supply with next generation fast breeder reactors (FBRs). Current light water reactors (LWRs) will be replaced by FBRs and FBR cycle will be established in the future considering the limited amount of uranium (U) resource. The introduction of FBRs requires plutonium (Pu) recovered from LWR spent fuel. The authors propose advanced system named "Flexible Fuel Cycle Initiative (FFCI)" which can supply enough Pu and hold no surplus Pu| can respond flexibly the future technical and social uncertainties| and can achieve an economical FBR cycle. FFCI can simplify the 2nd LWR reprocessing facility for Japan (after Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant) which only carries out U removal from LWR spent fuel. Residual "Recycle Material" is| according to FBRs introduction status| immediately treated in an FBR reprocessing to fabricate FBR fuel or temporarily stored for the utilization in FBRs at necessary timing. FFCI has high flexibility by having several options for future uncertainties by the introduction of Recycle Material as a buffer material between LWR and FBR cycles. 7875,2007,3,4,Transition to hydrogen economy in the United States: A 2006 status report,Energy crises in the latter part of the 20th century| as well as the current increase in the cost of oil| emphasize the need for alternate sources of energy in the United States. Concerns about climate change dictate that the source be clean and not contribute to global warming. Hydrogen has been identified as such a source for many years and the transition to a hydrogen economy was predicted to occur from the mid-1970s to 2000. This paper reports on the status of this transition in the year 2006. Instead of being a clean source of energy| most of the hydrogen produced in the US results from steam reforming of fossil fuels| releasing CO2 and other pollutants to the atmosphere. Nuclear process heat is ideally suited for the production of hydrogen| either using electricity for electrolysis of water| or heat for thermochemical hydrogen production or reforming of fossil fuels. However| no new nuclear plants have been ordered or built in the United States since 1979| and it may be many years before high-temperature nuclear reactors are available for production of hydrogen. Considerable research and development efforts are focused on commercializing hydrogen-powered vehicles to lessen the dependence of the transportation sector on imported oil. However| the use of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV) in 2006 is two orders-of-magnitude less than what has been predicted. Although it makes little sense environmentally or economically| hydrogen is also used as fuel in internal combustion engines. Development of hydrogen economy will require a strong intervention by external forces. (C) 2007 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7842,2007,3,4,Treatment of carbon tetrafluoride with gas discharges,Waste gases from semiconductor industry contain perfluorocarbons; which cause global warming and therefore should be removed. There are several possibilities to do this| for example the treatment of the gas by thermal and non-thermal plasmas| as well as by heating. in model gases containing upto CF4| destruction removal efficiencies of nearly 100% have been reached at atmospheric pressure using dielectric barrier and arc discharges. In order to reach high values| the dissociation products of CF4 must be bonded by reaction partners such as SiO2| CaO or H2O. 8080,2007,2,3,Tropical cyclone changes in the western North Pacific in a global warming scenario,The influence of global warming on the climatology of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin is examined using the high-resolution International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) regional climate model forced by ocean temperatures and horizontal boundary fields taken from the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 2 (CCSM2) coupled global climate model. The regional model is first tested in 10 yr of simulation with boundary forcing taken from observations and is shown to produce a reasonably good representation of the observed statistics of tropical cyclone numbers and locations. The model was then run for 10 yr with forcing from a present-day control run of the CCSM2 and then for 10 yr with forcing fields taken from the end of a long run with 6 times the present-day atmospheric CO2 concentration. The global-mean surface air temperature warming in the perturbed run is 4.5 K| while the surface warming in the tropical western North Pacific is about 3 K. The results of these experiments reveal no statistically significant change in basinwide tropical cyclone numbers in the peak season from July to October in response to the CO2 increase. However| a pronounced and statistically significant increase in tropical cyclone occurrence in the South China Sea is found. While the basinwide total number of storms remains nearly unchanged in the warm climate| there is a statistically significant increase in the average strength of the cyclones and in the number of the storms in the strongest wind categories. 8047,2007,2,4,Tropical river flow and rainfall reconstructions from coral luminescence: Great Barrier Reef| Australia,Rainfall and river flow in northeast Queensland| Australia| are highly seasonal and show high interannual and decadal variability that is modulated by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Reconstructions of October-September freshwater input to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon and October-September Queensland rainfall are developed from visual assessment of the occurrence and intensity of luminescent lines in massive Porites from up to 25 coral cores from 15 nearshore reefs regularly influenced by river flood plumes. Separate reconstructions are developed for four rivers (Herbert| Burdekin| Pioneer| and Fitzroy)| and these are used to reconstruct total annual freshwater flow into the Great Barrier Reef (69-74% variance calibrated) and an index of Queensland rainfall (53-57% variance calibrated). The reconstructions extend back to 1631 but are most reliable from 1661 and capture significant decadal variability. The reconstructions provide insights into long-term tropical rainfall and river flow variability and the behavior of ENSO and the PDO over several centuries. Significant| though weak| relationships are found between these reconstructions and an independent reconstruction of ENSO. The reconstructions highlight that observations from the instrumental records of high interannual and decadal rainfall and river flow variability in northeast Australia also characterize the past few centuries. Although there appears to be no overall trend toward wetter or drier conditions| the reconstructions suggest that the variability of rainfall and river flow has increased during the twentieth century with more very wet and very dry extremes than in earlier centuries| as projected for the region as a consequence of global warming. 8286,2007,2,4,Tropical sea surface temperature| vertical wind shear| and hurricane development,The anomalously strong hurricane activity in the Atlantic sector during the recent years led to a controversy about the impact of global warming on hurricane activity in the Atlantic sector. Here we show that the temperature difference between the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (Indo-Pacific) is a key parameter in controlling the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic| an important quantity for hurricane activity. The stronger warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to that of the Indo-Pacific during the most recent years drove reduced vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and is thus responsible for the strong hurricane activity observed. In 2006| however| the temperature difference between the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans is much reduced| which explains the relatively weak hurricane season. 8100,2007,2,3,Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations,[1] The change in the extratropical circulation under global warming is studied using the climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report. The IPCC models predict a strengthening and a poleward shift of the tropospheric zonal jets in response to global warming. The change in zonal jets is also accompanied by a strengthening and a poleward and upward shift of transient kinetic energy and momentum flux. Similar changes in circulation are simulated by a simple dry general circulation model (GCM) when the height of the tropopause is raised. The similarity between the simple GCM and the IPCC models suggests that the changes in midlatitude circulation are predominantly driven by a rise in the height of the tropopause| and that other factors such as increased moisture content and the change in the low-level pole-to-equator temperature gradient| play a secondary role. In addition| the variability about the ensemble-mean of the zonal wind response is significantly correlated with the variability of the tropopause height response over the polar cap| especially in the Southern Hemisphere. 7862,2007,2,4,Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift,Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions| hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)| and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity| compatible with linearity| whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods| before and after 1978| and shows a similar regime behavior| with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s. 7851,2007,2,4,Uncertainty in the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to global warming in a perturbed parameter climate model ensemble,The retreat of Arctic sea ice is a very likely consequence of climate change and part of a key feedback process| which can accelerate global warming. The uncertainty in predictions in the rate of sea ice retreat requires quantification and ultimately reduction via observational constraints. Here we analyse a climate model ensemble with perturbations to parameters in the atmosphere model. We find a large range of the sensitivity of Arctic sea-ice retreat to global temperature change| from 11 to 18% per degrees C. This is placed in the context of the uncertainty obtained by alternative model ensembles. Reasons for the different sensitivities are explored and we find that differences in the amount of ocean and atmospheric heat transported from low to high latitudes dominates over local radiative contributions to the heat budget. Furthermore| we find no significant relationship between the uncertainty in sea ice response to climate change and climate sensitivity. 7837,2007,3,4,Unemployment effects of climate policy,This paper models the unemployment effects of restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions| embodying two of the most significant types of short-term economic imperfections that generate unemployment: sectoral rigidities in labor mobility and sectoral rigidities in wage adjustments. A labor policy is also analyzed that would reduce the direct negative economic effects of the emissions restrictions. The politics of limiting greenhouse gas emissions are often dominated by relatively short-term considerations. Yet the current economic modeling of emissions limitations does not embody economic features that are likely to be particularly important in the short term| in particular| the politically sensitive unemployment rate. Moreover| only a few of these studies also consider policies that would offset the negative direct economic effects of emissions restrictions. For plausible estimates of the parameters| the model shows that| with the labor market imperfections| if there were no offsetting policies| the reductions in GNP in the U.S. in the first 10 years after emissions restrictions were imposed would be as much as 4%. However| if there were two policies| instead of just one: a counteracting labor market policy| as well as the emissions restrictions| the negative direct economic effects could be completely eliminated. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 7846,2007,4,4,Using airborne laser scanning to monitor tree migration in the boreal-alpine transition zone,The boreal tree line is expected to advance upwards into the mountains and northwards into the tundra due to global warming. The major objective of this study was to find out if it is possible to use high-resolution airborne laser scanner data to detect very small trees - the pioneers that are pushing the tree line up into the mountains and out onto the tundra. The study was conducted in a sub-alpine/alpine environment in southeast Norway. A total of 342 small trees of Norway spruce| Scots pine| and downy birch with tree heights ranging from 0.11 to 5.20 in were precisely georeferenced and measured in field. Laser data were collected with a pulse density of 7.7 m(-2). Three different terrain models were used to process the airborne laser point cloud in order to assess the effects of different pre-processing parameters on small tree detection. Greater than 91 % of all trees > 1 in tall registered positive laser height values regardless of terrain model. For smaller trees (< 1 m)| positive height values were found in 5-73% of the cases| depending on the terrain model considered. For this group of trees| the highest rate of trees with positive height values was found for spruce. The more smoothed the terrain model was| the larger the portion of the trees that had positive laser height values. The accuracy of tree height derived from the laser data indicated a systematic underestimation of true tree height by 0.40 to 1.01 m. The standard deviation for the differences between laser-derived and field-measured tree heights was 0.11-0.73 m Commission errors| i.e.| the detection of terrain objects - rocks| hummocks - as trees| increased significantly as terrain smoothing increased. Thus| if no classification of objects into classes like small trees and terrain objects is possible| many non-tree objects with a positive height value cannot be separated from those actually being trees. In a monitoring context| i.e.| repeated measurements over time| we argue that most other objects like terrain structures| rocks| and hummocks will remain stable over time while the trees will change as they grow and new trees are established. Thus| this study indicates that| given a high laser pulse density and a certain density of newly established trees| it would be possible to detect a sufficient portion of newly established trees over a 10 years period to claim that tree migration is taking place. Published by Elsevier Inc. 8251,2007,3,4,Using archaeal genomics to fight global warming and clostridia to fight cancer,The end of 2006 brought an unusually high number of completely sequenced microbial genomes. The list of new genomes (Table 1) includes three archaea and a large number of environmental| as well as parasitic| bacteria.
Two of the newly sequenced genomes represent methanogenic archaea of the Methanosarcinales family that are commonly found in the rice fields. These organ- isms are key producers of methane whose emission from the rice fields comprises anywhere from 10% to 25% of the total global CH4 emissions into the atmosphere and is a significant source of greenhouse gases (Neue| 1993; West et al.| 2006). Reducing methane emission without decreasing the grain yield appears to be feasible and could make an important contribution to the fight against global warming (Denier van der Gon et al.| 2002; Sass and Cicerone| 2002). Unfortunately| methane emission appears to be linked to oxygen transport into the root and might be part of the normal functioning of the rice rhizo- sphere (Nouchi et al.| 1990; Inubushi et al.| 2001). This makes understanding the physiology of methanogenic archaea inhabiting the rice paddies and their role in rice rhizosphere a particularly urgent task.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the climate water-vapor sources of Xinjiang region and their shifts during the past 20 years. First| the principle and steps are roughly regulated to seek the water-vapor sources. Second| the climate stationary water-vapor transport in troposphere is calculated to distinguish where the water vapor comes from by ERA-40 reanalysis. In addition| the collocation between the transport and the atmospheric column water vapor content is analyzed. The results show that the major vapor comes from the west side of Xinjiang for mid-month of seasons| apart from July white the water vapor comes from the north or northwest direction. The water vapor sources are different for different seasons| for example| the Caspian Sea and Mediterranean are the sources in January and April| the North Atlantic and the Arctic sea in July| and the Black Sea and Caspian Sea in October| respectively. In recent ten years more water vapor above Xinjiang comes from the high latitudes and the Arctic sea with global warming| and less from Mediterranean in comparison with the case of 1973-1986. In fact| the air over subtropics becomes dry and the anomalous water vapor transport direction turns to west or southwest during 1987-2000. By contrast| the air over middle and high latitudes is warmer and wetter than 14 years ago.
7849,2007,2,2,Weak response of oceanic dimethylsulfide to upper mixing shoaling induced by global warming,The solar radiation dose in the oceanic upper mixed layer (SRD) has recently been identified as the main climatic force driving global dimethylsulfide (DMS) dynamics and seasonality. Because DMS is suggested to exert a cooling effect on the earth radiative budget through its involvement in the formation and optical properties of tropospheric clouds over the ocean| a positive relationship between DMS and the SRD supports the occurrence of a negative feedback between the oceanic biosphere and climate| as postulated 20 years ago. Such a natural feedback might partly counteract anthropogenic global warming through a shoaling of the mixed layer depth (MILD) and a consequent increase of the SRD and DMS concentrations and emission. By applying two globally derived DMS diagnostic models to global fields of MILD and chlorophyll simulated with an Ocean General Circulation Model coupled to a biogeochemistry model for a 50% increase of atmospheric CO2 and an unperturbed control run| we have estimated the response of the DMS-producing pelagic ocean to global warming. our results show a net global increase in surface DMS concentrations| especially in summer. This increase| however| is so weak (globally 1.2%) that it can hardly be relevant as compared with the radiative forcing of the increase of greenhouse gases. This contrasts with the seasonal variability of DMS (1000-2000% summer-to-winter ratio). We suggest that the "plankton-DMS-clouds-earth albedo feedback" hypothesis is less strong a long-term thermostatic system than a seasonal mechanism that contributes to regulate the solar radiation doses reaching the earth's biosphere. 7904,2007,4,4,Weakening of the Walker Circulation and apparent dominance of El Nino both reach record levels| but has ENSO really changed?,Changes in El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Walker Circulation can be routinely monitored using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Here we show that the lowest 30-year average value of the June-December SOI just occurred (i.e. in 1977-2006)| and that this coincided with the highest recorded value in mean sea-level pressure at Darwin| the weakest equatorial surface wind-stresses and the highest tropical sea-surface temperatures on record. We also document what appears to be a concurrent period of unprecedented El Nino dominance. However| our results| together with results from climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas levels| suggest that the recent apparent dominance might instead reflect a shift to a lower mean SOI value. It seems that global warming now needs to be taken into account in both the formulation of ENSO indices and in the evaluation and exploitation of statistical links between ENSO and climate variability over the globe. This could very well lead to the development of more accurate seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. Citation: Power| S. B.| and I. N. Smith ( 2007)| Weakening of the Walker Circulation and apparent dominance of El Nino both reach record levels| but has ENSO really changed?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 34| L18702| doi: 10.1029/2007GL030854. 1515,2007,2,4,What environmental fate processes have the strongest influence on a completely persistent organic chemical's accumulation in the Arctic?,Fate and transport models can be used to identify and classify chemicals that have the potential to undergo long-range transport and to accumulate in remote environments. For example| the Arctic contamination potential (ACP)| calculated with the help of the zonally averaged global transport model Globo-POP| is a numerical indicator of an organic chemical's potential to be transported to polar latitudes and to accumulate in the Arctic ecosystem. It is important to evaluate how robust such model predictions are and in particular to appreciate to what extent they may depend on a specific choice of environmental model input parameters. Here| we employ a recently developed graphical method based on partitioning maps to comprehensively explore the sensitivity of ACP estimates to variations in environmental parameters. Specifically| the changes in the ACP of persistent organic contaminants to changes in each environmental input parameter are plotted as a function of the two-dimensional hypothetical "chemical space" defined by two of the three equilibrium partition coefficients between air| water and octanol. Based on the patterns obtained| this chemical space is then segmented into areas of similar parameter sensitivities and superimposed with areas of high default ACP and elevated environmental bioaccumulation potential within the Arctic. Sea ice cover| latitudinal temperature gradient| and macro-diffusive atmospheric transport coefficients| and to a lesser extent precipitation rate| display the largest influence on ACP-values for persistent organic contaminants| including those that may bioaccumulate within the polar marine ecosystems. These environmental characteristics are expected to be significantly impacted by global climate change processes| highlighting the need to explore more explicitly how climate change may affect the long-range transport and accumulation behavior of persistent organic pollutants. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8359,2007,4,4,When is breeding for drought tolerance optimal if drought is random?,Increasing climatic unpredictability associated with characteristics of some species makes plant drought-tolerance an important drought-adaptation strategy. Using norm-of-reaction functions| or empirically determined functions that enable us to predict the state of a trait given the state of an environmental variable| allows modelling of plant performance when water availability varies randomly. A mathematical model is proposed to evaluate drought-tolerance and growth strategies given a set of environmental parameters: the frequency of rainy days| the soil water-storage capacity| plant water use and plant growth rates. This model compares the performance of genotypes that differ in drought tolerance expressed as the ability to grow in drier soils| and assumes a general trade-off function between drought tolerance and maximum plant growth rate. It is worth selecting plants with a greater degree of drought tolerance| expressed by the ability to grow in drier soils whenever the frequency of rains is smaller than the rate of soil water depletion. Otherwise| maximizing growth rate at the expense of drought tolerance is the best strategy. The nature of the trade-off between drought tolerance and plant growth rate also constrains the selection for optimal drought-adapted genotypes. Breeders will have to consider these aspects of plant-environment interactions before establishing selection programs for drought adaptation. 7858,2007,2,3,Where are Germany's gains from Kyoto? Estimating the effects of global warming on agriculture,Motivated by the high abatement costs of the Kyoto Protocol for Germany| this paper is estimating the economic impact of global warming on agriculture in that country. The hedonic approach is used as theoretical background. Stating that land prices are - among others - determined by climatic factors| this approach can consequently be used to value global warming. To avoid a priori restrictions stemming from functional forms| the land price function is modeled as quadratic Box-Cox function that nests a wide range of specifications. In a second step| the estimated results are used to forecast the impact of climate change. The results indicate that German farmers will be winners of climate change in the short run| with maximum gains occurring at a temperature increase of +0.6 degrees C against current levels. In the long run| there may be losses from global warming. However| the net present value from climate change is under the most probable scenarios positive. 7740,2007,4,4,Who's invading what? Systems thinking about invasive species,While invasive plant species have dramatic and varied effects| this paper examines the focus of this symposium on their "threat to native biodiversity and ecosystems". This claim implies that there is (i) an enduring something| (ii) it is native| and (iii) it is under threat from invasive species. I examine these implications in turn| first considering the role of the observer in invasion biology| particularly in preferring a nature characterized by stability rather than flux. Second| I examine the concept of "native" given that humans are thoroughly embedded within ecological systems. Third| I demonstrate how our exclusion of humans conditions us to consider invasive species a primary threat rather than one among many interacting causal agents of global change; in particular| recent evidence indicates that these agents| which include human-caused disturbances and global warming (not to mention human population growth and global trade)| may overwhelm the effects of invasive species per se. For these and other reasons| some ecologists have argued that ecological change is inevitable and that our concerns about invasive species are unjustified. I discuss these issues and suggest ways for ecologists to conduct engaged research through appropriate advocacy and engagement with stakeholders dealing with local invasive species. 7824,2007,2,2,Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate-carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century?,Global warming caused by anthropogenic CO(2) emissions is expected to reduce the capability of the ocean and the land biosphere to take up carbon. This will enlarge the fraction of the CO(2) emissions remaining in the atmosphere| which in turn will reinforce future climate change. Recent model studies agree in the existence of such a positive climate-carbon cycle feedback| but the estimates of its amplitude differ by an order of magnitude| which considerably increases the uncertainty in future climate projections. Therefore we discuss| in how far a particular process or component of the carbon cycle can be identified| that potentially contributes most to the positive feedback. The discussion is based on simulations with a carbon cycle model| which is embedded in the atmosphere/ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Two simulations covering the period 1860-2100 are conducted to determine the impact of global warming on the carbon cycle. Forced by historical and future carbon dioxide emissions (following the scenario A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)| they reveal a noticeable positive climate-carbon cycle feedback| which is mainly driven by the tropical land biosphere. The oceans contribute much less to the positive feedback and the temperate/boreal terrestrial biosphere induces a minor negative feedback. The contrasting behavior of the tropical and temperate/boreal land biosphere is mostly attributed to opposite trends in their net primary productivity (NPP) under global warming conditions. As these findings depend on the model employed they are compared with results derived from other climate-carbon cycle models| which participated in the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). 8148,2007,3,4,Wind resource assessment of eastern coastal region of Saudi Arabia,Depleting oil and gas reserves| combined with growing concerns of global warming| have made it inevitable to seek energy from renewable energy sources such as wind. The utilization of energy from wind is becoming increasingly attractive and is being widely used/disseminated for substitution of oil-produced energy| and eventually to minimize atmospheric degradation. Quantitative assessment of wind resource is an important driving element in successful establishment of a wind farm/park at a given location. More often than not| wind-energy resources are relatively better along coastlines. In the present study| hourly mean wind-speed data of the period 1986-1997 recorded at the solar radiation and meteorological station| Dhahran (26 degrees 32' N| 50 degrees 13' E| eastern coastal plain of Saudi Arabia)| have been analyzed to present different characteristics of wind speed in considerable depth such as: yearly| monthly| diurnal variations of wind speed| etc. The long-term monthly average wind speeds for Dhahran range from 4.2-6.4 m/s. More importantly| the study deals with impact of hub height on wind energy generation. Attention has also been focussed on monthly average daily energy generation from different sizes of commercially available wind machines (150| 250| 600 kW) to identify optimum wind machine size from energy production point of view. It has been found that for a given 6 MW wind farm size| at 50 m hub height| cluster of 150 kW wind machines yields about 48% more energy as compared to 600 kW wind machines. Literature shows that commercial/residential buildings in Saudi Arabia consume an estimated 10-40% of the total electric energy generated. So| concurrently| as a case study| attempt has been made to investigate/ examine the potential of utilizing hybrid (wind+diesel) energy conversion systems to meet the load requirements of hundred typical 2-bedroom residential buildings (with annual electrical energy demand of 3512 MWh). The hybrid systems considered in the present case-study consist of different combinations of wind machines (of various capacities)| supplemented with battery storage and diesel back-up. The deficit energy generated from the back-up diesel generator and the number of operational hours of the diesel system to meet a specific annual electrical energy demand of 3512 MWh have also been presented. The diesel back-up system is operated at times when the power generated from wind energy conversion systems (WECS) fails to satisfy the load and when the battery storage is depleted. The evaluation of hybrid system shows that with seven 150 kW WECS and three days of battery storage| the diesel back-up system has to provide 17.5% of the load demand. However| in absence of battery storage| about 37% of the load needs to be provided by the diesel system. 8104,2007,4,3,Winter carbon dioxide fluxes in humid-temperate pastures,Because of their vast size| grazing lands have the potential to sequester significant quantities of carbon| slowing the increase in atmospheric CO| and reducing the risk of global warming. Although CO2 uptake during the growing season can be substantial| losses during winter months reduce annual sequestration| potentially turning grazing lands into net carbon sources. The goal of this research was to quantify the magnitude of winter fluxes for humid-temperate pastures in the northeastern USA. The study was conducted from 2003 to 2005 on two pastures in the ridge and valley region of central Pennsylvania| one dominated by a mix of cool-season grasses and the other transitioning from an alfalfa to mixed-grass pasture. Pasture-scale CO2 fluxes were quantified using eddy covariance techniques. The alfalfa pasture was less of a CO2 source to the atmosphere during winter months (1 December to 31 March) than the grass pasture| averaging 2.68 g CO2 m(-2) day(-1) compared with 3.09 g CO2 m(-2) day(-1) for the grass pasture. Cumulative efflux for the winter months averaged 326 g CO2 m(-2) (88 g C m(-2)) for the alfalfa and 375 g CO2 m(-2) (101 g C m(-2)) for the grass pasture. In the absence of snow cover| eddy covariance measurements estimated that photosynthetic CO2| uptake occurred at temperatures below 0 degrees C. Canopy and leaf chamber measurements in the field and in controlled environments suggested minimum temperatures for photosynthetic CO2 uptake of about -4 degrees C. Even when daytime uptake occurred| nighttime efflux from the system was greater so that the pastures remained CO2 sources throughout the winter. Published by Elsevier B.V. 7887,2007,2,4,Winter jet stream trends over the Northern Hemisphere,Trends in the speed and probability of winter jet stream cores over the Northern Hemisphere were measured for 1958-2007| and related changes in the thermal structure of the troposphere were identified. Eddy-driven jet (EDJ) core speeds and probabilities increased over the midlatitudes (40-60 degrees N)| with changes as large as 15% (speed) and 30% (probability). These increasing trends are collocated with increases in baroclinicity driven by a spatially heterogeneous pattern of height change consisting of large-scale warming with cooling centres embedded poleward of 60 degrees N. The cooling centres reduced high-latitude baroclinicity| making jet cores poleward of 60 degrees N less frequent and weaker. Over the west and central Pacific| subtropical jet stream (STJ) core probabilities remained relatively constant while core speeds increased by as much as 1.75 m/s decade(-1) in association with Hadley cell intensification. The STJ shifted poleward over the east Pacific and Middle East| and an equatorward shift and intensification of the STJ were found over the Atlantic basin-contributing to an increased separation of the EDJ and STJ. Copyright (c) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society. 7806,2007,2,3,Wintertime CO2 exchange in a boreal agricultural peat soil,We measured the carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange with the eddy covariance (EC) method through three winters above a cultivated peat soil. During the first winter| the soil was ploughed| while for the next two winters it was grass-covered. On a weekly timescale| the emission was controlled by the soil temperature| whereas the vegetation had no clear impact. The deeper soil temperatures better correlated with the CO2 efflux| especially in frozen soil. The correlation with the air temperature was poor. After a mid-winter snowmelt| decreased CO2 efflux rates were temporarily detected| probably resulting from a lowered diffusion of CO) from the soil air into the atmosphere. Moderate soil-thaw CO pulses were observed in the springs of 2001 and 2003. CO2 emission rates measured with the EC method were found to be significantly lower as compared to those measured with the chamber method. The cumulative CO| emission between December and mid-March ranged from 80 to 178 m(-2) during three winters| correlating positively with air and soil temperatures and the number of snow-free days during that period. The projected increase in the air temperature related to global warming would boost the wintertime CO) efflux at our site by 30-200% (35-114 g m(-2))| depending on the selected emission scenario. 7907,2007,3,4,Wood density in forests of Brazil's 'arc of deforestation': Implications for biomass and flux of carbon from land-use change in Amazonia,Wood density is an important variable in estimates of forest biomass and greenhouse-gas emissions from land-use change. The mean wood density used in estimates of forest biomass in the Brazilian Amazon has heretofore been based on samples from outside the "arc of deforestation"| where most of the carbon flux from land-use change takes place. This paper presents new wood density estimates for the southern and southwest Brazilian Amazon (SSWA) portions of the arc of deforestation| using locally collected species weighted by their volume in large local inventories. Mean wood density was computed for the entire bole| including the bark| and taking into account radial and longitudinal variation. A total of 403 trees were sampled at 6 sites. In the southern Brazilian Amazon (SBA)| 225 trees (119 species or morpho-species) were sampled at 4 sites. In eastern Acre state 178 trees (128 species or morpho-species) were sampled at breast height in 2 forest types. Mean basic density in the SBA sites was 0.593 +/- 0.113 (mean +/- 1 S.D.; n = 225; range 0.265-0.825). For the trees sampled in Acre the mean wood density at breast height was 0.540 +/- 0.149 (n = 87) in open bamboo-dominated forest and 0.619 +/- 0.149 (n = 91) in dense bamboo-free forest. Mean wood density in the SBA sites was significantly higher than in the bamboo dominated forest but not the dense forest at the Acre site. From commercial wood inventories by the RadamBrasil Project in the SSWA portion of the arc of deforestation| the wood volume and wood density of each species or genus were used to estimate average wood density of all wood volume in each vegetation unit. These units were defined by the intersection of mapped forest types and states. The area of each unit was then used to compute a mean wood density of 0.583 g cm(-3) for all wood volume in the SSWA. This is 13.6% lower than the value applied to this region in previous estimates of mean wood density. When combined with the new estimates for the SSWA| this gave an average wood density of 0.642 g cm(-3) for all the wood volume in the entire Brazilian Amazon| which is 7% less than a priorestimate of 0.69 g cm(-3). These results suggest that current estimates of carbon emissions from land-use change in the Brazilian Amazon are too high. The impact on biomass estimates and carbon emissions is substantial because the downward adjustment is greater in forest types undergoing the most deforestation. For 1990| with 13.8 x 10(3) km(2) of deforestation| emissions for the Brazilian Amazon would be reduced by 23.4-24.4 x 10(6) Mg CO2-equivalent C/year (for high- and low-trace gas scenarios)| or 9.4-9.5% of the gross emission and 10.7% of the net committed emission| both excluding soils. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8275,2007,3,3,Zoonotic bacterial populations| gut fermentation characteristics and methane production in feedlot steers during oral nitroethane treatment and after the feeding of an experimental chlorate product,Nitroethane inhibits the growth of certain zoonotic pathogens such as Campylobacter and Sahnonella spp.| foodborne pathogens estimated to cause millions of human infections each year| and enhances the Sabrionella- and Escherichia coli-killing effect of an experimental chlorate product being developed as a feed additive to kill these bacteria immediately pre-harvest. Limited studies have shown that nitroethane inhibits ruminal methane production| which represents a loss of 2-12% of the host's gross energy intake and contributes to global warming and destruction of the ozone layer. The present study was conducted to assess the effects of 14-day oral nitroethane administration| 0 (0X)| 80 (1X) or 160 (2X)mg nitroethane/kg body weight per day on ruminal and fecal E. coli and Carripylobacter| ruminal and fecal methane-producing and nitroethane-reducing activity| whole animal methane emissions| and ruminal and fecal fermentation balance in Holstein steers (17 = 6 per treatment) averaging 403 +/- 26 (SD) kgBW. An experimental chlorate product was fed the day following the last nitroethane administration to determine effects on E. coli and Campylobacter. The experimental chlorate product decreased (P < 0.001) fecal| but not ruminal (P > 0.05) E. coli concentrations by 1000- and 10-fold by 24 and 48h| respectively| after chlorate feeding when compared to pre-treatment concentrations (> 5.7log(10) colony forming units/g). No effects (P > 0.05) of nitroethane or the experimental chlorate product were observed on fecal Campylobacter concentrations; Campylobacter were not recovered from ruminal contents. Nitroethane treatment decreased (P < 0.01) ruminal (8.46| 7.91 and 4.74 +/- 0.78 mu mol/g/h) and fecal (3.90| 1.36 and 1.38 +/- 0.50 mu mol/g/h) methane-producing activity for treatments 0X| 1X and 2X| respectively. Administration of nitroethane increased (P < 0.001) nitroethane-reducing activity in ruminal| but not fecal samples. Day of study affected ruminal (P < 0.0001) but not fecal (P > 0.05) methane-producing and nitroethane-reducing activities (P < 0.01); treatment by day interactions were not observed (P > 0.05). Ruminal accumulations of acetate decreased (P < 6.05) in 2X-treated steers when compared with 0X- and 1X-treated steers| but no effect (P > 0.05) of nitroethane was observed on propionate| butyrate or the acetate to propionate ratio. Whole animal methane emissions| expressed as L/day or as a proportion of gross energy intake (%GEI)| were unaffected by nitroethane treatment (P > 0.05)| and were not correlated (P > 0.05) with ruminal methane-producing activity. These results demonstrate that oral nitroethane administration reduces ruminal methane-producing activity but suggest that a microbial adaptation| likely due to an in situ enrichment of ruminal nitroethane-reducing bacteria| may cause depletion of nitroethane| at least at the I X administration dose| to concentrations too low to be effective. Further research is warranted to determine if the optimization of dosage of nitroethane or related nitrocompouds can mairttain the enteropathogen control and anti-methanogen effect in fed steers. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 1557,2007,2,4,Zooplankton time-series in the Balearic Sea (Western Mediterranean): Variability during the decade 1994-2003,Studies of plankton time-series from the Balearic islands waters are presented for the past decade| with main emphasis on the variability of zooplankton and how it relates to the environment. The seasonal and interannual patterns of temperature| salinity| nutrients| chlorophyll concentration and zooplankton abundance are described with data obtained between 1994 and 2003. Samples were collected every 10 days at a monitoring station in the Mallorca channel| an area with marked hydrographic variability in the Western Mediterranean. Mesoscale variability was also assessed using data from monthly sampling survey carried out between 1994 and 1999 in a three station transect located in the same study area. The copepods were the most abundant group with three higher peaks (March| May and September) distinguished during the annual cycle and a clear coastal-offshore decreasing gradient. Analysis of the zooplankton community revealed two distinct periods: the mixing period during winter and early spring| where copepods| siphonophores and ostracods were most abundant and| the stratified period characterised by an increase of cladocerans and meroplankton abundances. Remarkable interannual zooplankton variability was observed in relation to hydrographic regime with|higher abundances of main groups during cool years| when northern Mediterranean waters prevailed in the area. The warmer years showed the lowest zooplankton abundances| associated with the inflow of less saline and nutrient-depleted Atlantic Waters. Moreover| the correlation found between copepod abundance and large scale climatic factors (e.g.| NAO) suggested that they act as main driver of the zooplankton variability. Therefore| the seasonal but particularly the interannual variation observed in plankton abundance and structure patterns of the Balearic Sea seems to be highly modulated by large-scale forcing and can be considered an ideal place where to investigate potential consequences of global climate change. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8803,2008,4,2,"Sunshade World": A fully coupled GCM evaluation of the climatic impacts of geoengineering,Sunshade geoengineering - the installation of reflective mirrors between the Earth and the Sun to reduce incoming solar radiation| has been proposed as a mitigative measure to counteract anthropogenic global warming. Although the popular conception is that geoengineering can re-establish a 'natural' pre-industrial climate| such a scheme would itself inevitably lead to climate change| due to the different temporal and spatial forcing of increased CO(2) compared to reduced solar radiation. We investigate the magnitude and nature of this climate change for the first time within a fully coupled General Circulation Model. We find significant cooling of the tropics| warming of high latitudes and related sea ice reduction| a reduction in intensity of the hydrological cycle| reduced ENSO variability| and an increase in Atlantic overturning. However| the changes are small relative to those associated with an unmitigated rise in CO(2) emissions. Other problems such as ocean acidification remain unsolved by sunshade geoengineering. 1121,2008,4,3,A cavity ring-down analyzer for measuring atmospheric levels of methane| carbon dioxide| and water vapor,Researchers investigating global climate change need measurements of greenhouse gases with extreme precision and accuracy to enable the development and benchmarking of better climate models. Existing atmospheric monitors based on non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) sensors have known problems - they are non-linear| sensitive to water vapor concentration| and susceptible to drift. Many cannot easily be simultaneously calibrated across different sites to the level of accuracy required for use in atmospheric studies. We present results from field trials by Pennsylvania State University and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of a newly available analyzer| based on cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS)| capable of measuring the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and water vapor (H(2)O). In addition| we present data from a new analyzer which measures CO(2)| methane (CH(4))| and H(2)O. 9102,2008,2,4,A change in the weather,Recent observations by Inuit observers reveal subtleties of global warming in the Arctic communities: Qaanaaq in Greenland| Barrow in Alaska| and Clyde River in Canada. The Artic climate always fluctuates and from which past temperatures and atmospheric conditions can be deduced but the recent changes attributes to global warming of the earth. Scientists have observed changes in snow and sea-ice conditions| shifts in seasonal calendar| strengthening of winds affecting sea ice thickness and unusual animal behavior. Changes in environment also affect variety of species| including birds| caribou| fish| insects| polar bear| walrus| whales| plants and lichens. 9210,2008,3,4,A comparative study on the performance and environmental characteristics of R410A and R22 residential air conditioners,R410A is a long-term alternative refrigerant with zero ODP (ozone-depleting-potential) for replacing R22. In this paper| four sets of comparable R410A and R22 split-type residential A/C (air conditioners) were developed and then their performance was comparatively studied using one simulation software. The A/C performance compared in this paper included the cooling capacity| EER (energy efficiency ratio)| annual power consumption of A/C and the global warming impact of refrigerants adopted by the A/C. It was concluded that the adoption of R410A could be helpful for A/C to decrease their heat exchanger size or improve their operation efficiency for power saving. Moreover| compared to R22| R410A could in fact help alleviate its overall impact on global warming through significantly reducing the indirect global warming impact caused by operating R410A A/C. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9039,2008,3,3,A comparison of growth and photosynthetic characteristics of two improved rice cultivars on methane emission from rainfed agroecosystem of northeast India,Wetland rice fields serve as an important anthropogenic source of atmospheric methane| a greenhouse gas implicated in global warming. An experiment was conducted at the North Bank Plain Zone of Assam| India| during summer rice growing season (April-July 2006) in order to elucidate the effects of morpho-physiological characteristics of rice (Oryza sativa L.) plants on methane emission from paddy fields. Two improved rice cultivars viz. Disang and Luit were grown in light textured loamy soil (Sand 28.50%| Clay 30.10%| Silt 41.40%| electrical conductivity (EC) 0.43 mmhos/100 g| cation exchange capacity (CEC) 10.20 meq 100 g(-1)) under rainfed condition. Higher seasonal integrated methane flux was recorded in cultivar Disang (E-sif = 1.38 g m(-2)) compared to Luit (E-sif = 0.96 g m(-2)). Both the cultivars exhibited two emission peaks; one at active vegetative growth stage and the other at panicle initiation stage of the crop. Methane emission from the cultivars was significantly regulated by crop phenology and growth. Vegetative growth in terms of leaf number and area| root volume and length and tiller number was higher in Disang. Statistical analysis of these parameters showed a positive correlation with methane emission. On the other hand| yield and all yield-attributing parameters were found to be superior in cultivar Luit. Cultivar Luit recorded higher photosynthetic rate after panicle initiation. On the other hand| Disang recorded higher rate of photosynthesis during active vegetative growth period. In Luit| maximum partitioning of photosynthates was found towards the developing panicle| whereas in cultivar Disang| photosynthates could not be allocated sufficiently towards the panicle. In Disang| maximum partitioning of photosynthates was recorded towards the vegetative parts (including root) of the rice plant. Variation in organic carbon content of soil was observed in the field planted with two cultivars. Higher soil organic carbon content was recorded in the field planted with cultivar Disang. From this| we hypothesize that in Disang| photosynthetic carbon products were utilized as substrate by methanogens in the rhizosphere leading to more production of methane. Additionally| higher vegetative growth with high methane transport capacity (MTC) may positively contribute to higher methane emission from cultivar Disang. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8445,2008,4,4,A Conceptual Model of the Surface Salinity Distribution in the Oceanic Hadley Cell,A conceptual model of the salinity distribution in the oceanic Hadley cell is presented. The model pertains to the region of tropical easterly surface winds| where the surface salinity increases poleward from a local salinity minimum near the equator to a subtropical salinity maximum. A fundamental constraint is that the meridional freshwater transports in the atmosphere and the ocean have the same magnitude but opposite directions. A key assumption is that the strength of the meridional overturning cells in the atmosphere and the ocean is proportional and set by the surface layer Ekman transport. It is further assumed that| to the lowest order of approximation| the zonal-mean Ekman transports accomplish the meridional freshwater transports| that is| eddy fluxes and gyre-induced transports are ignored. The model predicts that the salinity variation in the oceanic cell is directly proportional to the specific humidity of the near-surface air| but independent of the meridional mass transport (as long as the atmospheric and oceanic mass transports remain proportional). If the relative humidity of the near-surface air is constant| the salinity variation in the oceanic Hadley cell varies essentially with the surface temperature according to the Clausius-Clapeyron expression for the saturation vapor pressure. Further| the model is compared to observations and a global warming simulation and found to give a leading-order description of the tropical surface salinity range. 8775,2008,3,2,A continuous catalytic system for biodiesel production,A novel continuous fixed bed reactor process has been developed for the production of biodiesel using a metal oxide-based catalyst. Porous zirconia| titania and alumina micro-particulate heterogeneous catalysts are shown to be capable of continuous rapid esterification and transesterfication reactions under high pressure (ca. 2500 psi) and elevated temperature (300-450 degrees C). The continuous transesterification of triglycerides and simultaneous esterification of free fatty acids with residence times as low as 5.4 s is described. Biodiesel produced from soybean oil| acidulated soapstock| tall oil| algae oil| and corn oil with different alcohols to make different alkyl esters using this new process pass all current ASTM testing specifications. Furthermore| the economics of this novel process is much more cost competitive due to the use of inexpensive lipid feedstocks that often contain high levels of free fatty acids. The process has been shown to easily scale up a factor of 49 for more than 115 h of continuous operation without loss of conversion efficiency. The increased use of biodiesel world-wide could help reduce the emission of greenhouse gases that are linked to the progression of global warming. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8665,2008,2,4,A degree-day simulation model for the population dynamics of the rice bug| Leptocorisa acuta (Thunb.),The rice bug| Leptocorisa acuta (Thunb.) is a major pest of the rice crop in India. A computer simulation model of the bug's population dynamics was formulated using the information generated on the thermal requirements of development stages. It is a mechanistic model which follows the state variable-rate variable approach. The model works based on the accumulation of heat units over stage-specific thresholds of development. Validation using light trap catches has shown that the model has satisfactory predictive value. Simulated population dynamics over the years were compared and the influence of global warming on bug population dynamics was predicted. The model can forecast the pest population in the field and help in timely adoption of management practices. 1152,2008,2,4,A discussion of the potential impacts of climate change on the shorelines of the Northeastern USA,An increase in the rate of sea-level rise and potential changes in storminess represent important components of global climate change that will likely affect the extensive coasts of the Northeastern USA. Raising sea level not only increases the likelihood of coastal flooding| but changes the template for waves and tides to sculpt the coast| which can lead to land loss orders of magnitude greater than that from direct inundation alone. There is little question that sea-level rise| and in particular an increased rate of rise| will result in permanent losses of coastal land. However| quantitative predictions of these future coastal change remains difficult due in part to the complexity of coastal systems and the influence of infrequent storm events| and is further confounded by coastal science's insufficient understanding of the behavior of coastal systems over decadal timescales. Recently| dramatic improvements in technology have greatly improved our capabilities to investigate and characterize processes and sedimentary deposits in the coastal zone| allowing us| for the first time| to address some of the over-arching problems involved in shoreline change. Despite advances in many areas of coastal geology| our fundamental understanding of shoreline change has been limited by a lack of a broad and integrated scientific focus| a lack of resources| and a lack of willingness on the part of policymakers who make crucial decisions about human activity along the coast to support basic research in this area. Although quantitative predictions remain constrained| there remains little doubt that the predicted climates changes will have profound effects upon the Northeastern coast. 9030,2008,2,4,A dispersal-constrained habitat suitability model for predicting invasion of alpine vegetation,Developing tools to predict the location of new biological invasions is essential if exotic species are to be controlled before they become widespread. Currently| alpine areas in Australia are largely free of exotic plant species but face increasing pressure from invasive species due to global warming and intensified human use. To predict the potential spread of highly invasive orange hawkweed (Hieracium aurantiacum) from existing founder populations on the Bogong High Plains in southern Australia| we developed an expert-based| spatially explicit| dispersal-constrained| habitat suitability model. The model combines a habitat suitability index| developed from disturbance| site wetness| and vegetation community parameters| with a phenomenological dispersal kernel that uses wind direction and observed dispersal distances. After generating risk maps that defined the relative suitability of H. aurantiacum establishment across the study area| we intensively searched several locations to evaluate the model. The highest relative suitability for H. aurantiacum establishment was southeast from the initial infestations. Native tussock grasslands and disturbed areas had high suitability for H. aurantiacum establishment. Extensive field searches failed to detect new populations. Time-step evaluation using the location of populations known in 1998-2000| accurately assigned high relative suitability for locations where H. aurantiacum had established post-2003 (AUC [area under curve] = 0.855+/-0.035). This suggests our model has good predictive power and will improve the ability to detect populations and prioritize areas for ongoing monitoring. 9155,2008,4,4,A distributed water-heat coupled model for mountainous watershed of an inland river basin of Northwest China (I) model structure and equations,It is absolutely necessary to quantify the hydrological processes in earth surface by numerical models in the cold regions where although most Chinese large rivers acquire their headstreams| due to global warming| its glacier| permafrost and snow cover have degraded seriously in the recent 50 years. Especially in an arid inland river basin| where the main water resources come from mountainous watershed| it becomes an urgent case. However| frozen ground's impact to water cycle is little considered in the distributed hydrological models for a watershed. Took Heihe mountainous watershed with an area of 10|009 km(2)| as an example| the authors designed a distributed heat-water coupled (DWHC) model by referring to SHAW and COUP. The DWHC model includes meteorological variable interception model| vegetation interception model| snow and glacier melting model| soil water-heat coupled model| evapotransporation model| runoff generation model| infiltration model and flow concentration model. With 1 km DTM grids in daily scale| the DWHC model describes the basic hydrological processes in the research watershed| with 3 similar to 5 soil layers for each of the 18 soil types| 9 vegetation types and 11 landuse types| according to the field measurements| remote sensing data and some previous research results. The model can compute the continuous equation of heat and water flow in the soil and can estimate them continuously| by numerical methods or by some empirical formula| which depends on freezing soil status. However| the model still has some conceptual parameters| and need to be improved in the future. This paper describes only the model structure and basic equations| whereas in the next papers| the model calibration results using the data measured at meteorological stations| together with Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) outputs| will be further introduced. 8531,2008,4,3,A Flexible Global Warming Index for Use in an Integrated Approach to Climate Change Assessment,Global Warming Potential (GWP) is an index used to measure the cumulative radiative forcing of a tonne of greenhouse house gas (GHG) relative to that of a 'reference' gas (CO2). Under the Kyoto Protocol| GWP can be used as a fixed index to govern the trade-off between different GHGs in a multi-gas approach to GHGs abatement. The use of fixed GWPs has been criticized for not being very cost effective compared to the use of some flexible indices. To gain wider acceptance| however| a flexible index must also prove to be easy to use| and the economic gains from its adoption must be significant. In this paper| we develop a flexible index based on the concept of marginal rather than cumulative or average global warming potentials. These marginal global warming potentials (MGWPs) can be endogenously determined within a climate model given a particular climate objective based on radiative forcing level. The MGPWs are then linked to the marginal abatement costs of the GHGs| which are also endogenously determined within an economic model. When the two concepts are linked in this way| the result is a cost-effective way of achieving a particular climate change objective with multigas abatement. We show that the savings in costs when using this flexible MGPWs can be significant| and more importantly| they are not uniformly distributed across different regions. 8952,2008,2,4,A high-quality monthly pan evaporation dataset for Australia,A high-quality monthly pan evaporation dataset of 60 stations has been developed for monitoring long-term pan evaporation trends over Australia. The quality control process involved examination of historical station metadata together with an objective test comparing candidate series with neighboring stations. Identified points of discontinuity were located| including installations of bird guards| site relocations and changes in exposure. Appropriate inhomogeneity adjustments have been applied using established methods to produce the first homogeneous pan evaporation dataset for Australia. Analysis of these data reveals that Australian annual mean pan-evaporation shows large interannual variability with no trend over the 1970-2005 period. Previous studies using unadjusted data have shown a decline in pan evaporation| highlighting the importance of checking data for homogeneity before drawing conclusions about long-term trends. A strong inverse correlation is evident between all-Australian means of pan evaporation and rainfall| while a moderate positive correlation is found between pan evaporation and mean temperature. The positive correlations between mean temperature and pan evaporation that exist on the interannual time scales are not reflected in the long-term trends| highlighting that the mechanisms that are responsible for variations on the short and longer time scales are different. This result cautions against the expectation that large changes in potential evaporation are a natural consequence of global warming. 9132,2008,5,4,A jokulhlaup from a Laurentian captured ice shelf to the Gulf of Mexico could have caused the bolling warming,Since the rapid rate of global warming at the onset of the Bolling interstadial became evident| its cause has been under debate. It coincides closely in time with a strong global transgression called meltwater pulse 1a. One attempt at solution says that a meltwater pulse of Antarctic origin could cause an increase in North Atlantic Deep Water formation| and thus give rise to the Bolling interstadial. However| others have disputed that Antarctic meltwater would have that effect| and furthermore| the start of the Bolling interstadial is not even associated with an increase in North Atlantic Deep Water. A controversial hypothesis says that some Laurentian meltwater came from a jokulhlaup (sub-glacial outburst flood)| but no study has yet shown unequivocally that sufficient amounts of water could be stored under the ice. Furthermore| according to all available data a melt-water pulse from the Laurentian ice would give rise to strong cooling| not warming. Nevertheless| meg-afloods appear instrumental in accumulating the Mississippi Fan| created entirely during the Quaternary period| and dramatic climate changes are characteristic of this period. This paper presents a hypothetical chain of events| building on the published literature and simple calculations| to investigate whether the order of magnitude is reasonable. The hypothesis is that a jokulhlaup from a Laurentian captured ice shelf flowed out through the Mississippi| boosted the Gulf Stream| reinvigorated the North Atlantic circulation| and as a result triggered the Bolling warm phase. 8522,2008,3,3,A life cycle comparison of disposal and beneficial use of coal combustion products in Florida,Background| aim| and scope Beneficial use of coal combustion products (CCPs) in industrial or construction operations has the potential to minimize environmental and human health impacts that would otherwise be associated with disposal of CCPs in the life cycle of coal used for electricity generation. To assess opportunities for reducing impacts associated with four CCP materials considered in this study| fly ash| bottom ash| boiler slag| and flue gas desulfurization (FGD) material| this paper reports results of expanding a life cycle inventory of raw material and emissions (part 1 of this series of papers) by performing life cycle impact assessment on five scenarios of CCP management. Materials and methods SimaPro 5.1 software (PRe Consultants) was used to calculate comparative environmental impacts of all scenarios using CML2001 and Environmental Design of Industrial Products 1997 midpoint impact assessment methods and Heirarchist and Individualist levels of the Eco-indicator 99 end point method. Trends were compared for global and local environmental and human health impact categories of global warming| acidification| smog formation| human toxicity| and ecotoxicity. Results In each impact category| beneficial use of fly ash| bottom ash| and FGD material resulted in a reduced impact compared to disposal of these materials. The extent to which beneficial use reduced impacts depended on several factors| including the impact category in consideration| the magnitude of potentially avoided impacts associated with producing raw materials that CCPs replace| and the potential impact of CCP disposal methods. Global warming impacts were reduced by the substitution of fly ash for Portland cement in concrete production| as production of Portland cement generates large quantities of CO(2). However| for categories of global warming| smog formation| and acidification| impact reductions from CCP beneficial use are small| less than 6%| as these impacts were attributable| in greater part| to upstream processes of coal mining| transportation| and combustion. Human toxicity and ecotoxicity categories showed larger but more varied reductions| from 0% to 50%| caused by diverting CCPs from landfills and surface impoundments. Discussion When comparing beneficial use scenarios| the four impact assessment methods used showed similar trends in categories of global warming| acidification| and smog formation. However| results diverged for human toxicity and ecotoxicity categories due to the lack of consensus among methods in classification and characterization of impacts from heavy metal release. Similarly| when assessing sensitivity of these results to changes in assumptions or system boundaries| human toxicity and ecotoxicity categories were most susceptible to change| while other impact categories had more robust results. Conclussions Impact assessment results showed that beneficial use of CCPs presented opportunities for reduced environmental impacts in the life cycle of coal combusted for electricity generation| as compared to the baseline scenario of 100% CCP disposal| although the impact reductions varied depending on the CCPs used| the ultimate beneficial use| and the impact category in consideration. Recommendations and perspectives As regulators and electric utilities increasingly consider viability and economics of the use of CCPs in various applications| this study provides a first-basis study of selected beneficial use alternatives. With these initial results| future studies should be directed towards beneficial uses that promise significant economic and environmental savings| such as use of fly ash in concrete| to quantify the currently unknown risk of these applications. 9238,2008,3,4,A life-cycle comparison between inorganic and biological catalysis for the production of biodiesel,Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been used to compare inorganic and biological catalysis for the production of biodiesel by transesterification. The inorganic route| using catalysis by sodium hydroxide| has been compared with a conceptual biological one using enzymatic catalysis by the lipase produced by Candida antarctica. Although biological catalysis has not been used for industrial production of biodiesel to date| results from laboratory experiments suggest that it could have distinct advantages over the inorganic route| particularly with regard to a simplified flowsheet for purification and concomitant energy savings. Five flowsheet options have been included in the study to investigate the alkali and enzyme catalysed production routes from rapeseed oil| use of methanol or ethanol for transesterification and the effect of efficiency of alcohol recovery. The LCA shows that the enzymatic production route is environmentally more favourable. Improvements are seen in all impact categories. Global warming. acidification| and photochemical oxidation are reduced by 5%. Certain toxicity levels have more than halved. These results are mainly due to lower steam requirements for heating in the biological process. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All fights reserved. 1291,2008,5,2,A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity| origination and extinction in the fossil record,The past relationship between global temperature and levels of biological diversity is of increasing concern due to anthropogenic climate warming. However| no consistent link between these variables has yet been demonstrated. We analysed the fossil record for the last 520 Myr against estimates of low latitude sea surface temperature for the same period. We found that global biodiversity (the richness of families and genera) is related to temperature and has been relatively low during warm 'greenhouse' phases| while during the same phases extinction and origination rates of taxonomic lineages have been relatively high. These findings are consistent for terrestrial and marine environments and are robust to a number of alternative assumptions and potential biases. Our results provide the first clear evidence that global climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner. Our findings may have implications for extinction and biodiversity change under future climate warming. 8579,2008,4,4,A mapping of global warming research based on IPCC AR4,It is easy to get lost in the vast amount of knowledge that is currently produced. In this study| to get a comprehensive picture of current scientific knowledge about global warming issues| we developed a mapping framework for global warming research based on the relationships between nature and human society. The mapping includes seven phases: (1) socioeconomic activity and greenhouse gas emissions| (2) carbon cycle and carbon concentration| (3) climate change and global warming| (4) impacts on ecosystems and human society| (5) adaptation| (6) mitigation| and (7) social systems. We applied the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report to the mapping. The quantity of research results and their reliability were analyzed on the basis of expert judgment to better understand the extent to which current scientific knowledge provides answers to society's major concerns. The quantity and reliability of answers have increased in phases 2 and 3 relative to research in the Third Assessment Report. Although a large quantity of results have been produced in phases 4 and 6| they are not always sufficient. More studies are required in phases 1| 5| and 7| and the reliability of existing knowledge needs to be improved in these phases. Mapping global warming issues enabled us to visually comprehend the numerous and varied parts of global warming research as a whole and to discern gaps in knowledge and other research shortfalls. 8996,2008,3,3,A method to increase the Arctic sea ice cover,Proposed in this paper is a new method for preserving the ice in the Arctic regions under the conditions of global warming. The main technique involves artificial polymer films| which are used as an additional cover for the overcooled northern regions. The polymer films are constructed in such a way that they cannot only reflect the incoming solar radiation but also provide additional sites for the nucleation of ice crystals. This feature of polymer films to produce ice crystal aggregation in the larger ice structures in the adjoining area can be achieved by decreasing sea wave amplitudes in the vicinity of the considered area. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics. 8770,2008,3,3,A model to calculate consistent atmospheric emission projections and its application to Spain,Global warming and air quality are headline environmental issues of our time and policy must preempt negative international effects with forward-looking strategies. As part of the revision of the European National Emission Ceilings Directive| atmospheric emission projections for European Union countries are being calculated. These projections are useful to drive European air quality analyses and to support wide-scale decision-making. However| when evaluating specific policies and measures at sectoral level| a more detailed approach is needed. This paper presents an original methodology to evaluate emission projections. Emission projections are calculated for each emitting activity that has emissions under three scenarios: without measures (business as usual)| with measures (baseline) and with additional measures (target). The methodology developed allows the estimation of highly disaggregated multi-pollutant| consistent emissions for a whole country or region. In order to assure consistency with past emissions included in atmospheric emission inventories and coherence among the individual activities| the consistent emission projection (CEP) model incorporates harmonization and integration criteria as well as quality assurance/quality check (QA/QC) procedures. This study includes a sensitivity analysis as a first approach to uncertainty evaluation. The aim of the model presented in this contribution is to support decision-making process through the assessment of future emission scenarios taking into account the effect of different detailed technical and non-technical measures and it may also constitute the basis for air quality modelling. The system is designed to produce the information and formats related to international reporting requirements and it allows performing a comparison of national results with lower resolution models such as RAINS/GAINS. The methodology has been successfully applied and tested to evaluate Spanish emission projections up to 2020 for 26 pollutants but the methodology could be adopted for any particular region for different purposes| especially for European countries. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8742,2008,3,4,A new beginning for sugar cogeneration in Australia?,This paper reviews the implementation of cogeneration in the sugar industry in view of recent changes in policy dealing with global warming and energy market issues. It includes an analysis of the effect on supply and demand of renewable energy that the latest MRET policies at the federal level will have. It also addresses the impact of emissions trading policies on electricity prices. The effect of full retail contestability in Queensland on the ability to contract the sale of electricity in regional Queensland is also examined. The impact of the implementation of cogeneration in association with boiler upgrades or replacement| mill rationalisation and/or the implementation of ethanol production is also examined. Collectively| these key changes to energy markets will play an increasingly important role in determining the ongoing viability of raw sugar production in Australia. 9071,2008,2,4,A possible important CO2 sink by the global water cycle,The locations| magnitudes| variations and mechanisms responsible for the global CO2 sink are uncertain and under debate. Here| we show| based on theoretical calculations and evidences from field monitoring results| that there is a possible important CO2 sink (as DIC-dissolved inorganic carbon) by the global water cycle. The sink constitutes up to 0.8013 Pg C/a (or 10.1% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emission| or 28.6% of the missing CO2 sink)| and is formed by the CO2 absorption of water and subsequent enhanced consumption by carbonate dissolution and aquatic plant photosynthesis. Of the sink| 0.5188 Pg C/a goes to sea via precipitation over sea (0.2748 Pg C/a) and continental rivers (0.244 Pg C/a)| 0.158 Pg C/a is released to the atmosphere again| and 0.1245 Pg C/a is stored in the continental aquatic ecosystem. Therefore| the net sink could be 0.6433 Pg C/a. This sink may increase with the global-warming-intensified global water cycle| the increase in CO2 and carbonate dust in atmosphere| and reforestation/afforestation| the latter increasing soil CO2| and thus the concentration of the DIC in water. 8786,2008,2,4,A preliminary report on the vegetation zonation of palsas in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge| northern Alaska| USA,We measured vegetation patterns on palsas with reference to topographic characteristics on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge| northern Alaska| to obtain benchmark data because of the changes expected from global warming. Vegetation was examined in 60 plots of area 50 cm x 50 cm by five environmental factors: water content in the peat and duff layers| groundwater level| slope angle| depth to frozen surface| and presence of pellets and feces. Three palsas were selected for the survey| and the heights were fewer than 50 cm from the groundwater surface. Based on TWINSPAN and canonical correspondence analysis| we confirmed that clear patterns of vegetation zonation had developed within a 60-cm difference in water level. Vaccinium vitis-idaea occurred well on the top areas of palsas| while Carex aquatilis was established on the bottom areas. Sphagnum spp. were established on intermediate locations between V. vitis-idaea and C. aquatilis. The prime determinant of the vegetation zonation seems to be water content in peat and duff layers rather than water level| although the five factors that we examined interact intricately with each other. 8516,2008,3,2,A quantitative comparison and analysis on the assessment indicators of greenhouse gases emission,Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emission and related global warming issues have been the focus of international communities for some time. The international communities have reached a consensus to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions and restrain global warming. The quantitative assessment of anthropogenic GHG emissions is the scientific basis to find out the status of global GHG emission| identify the commitments of each country| and arrange the international efforts of GHG emission reduction. Currently the main assessment indicators for GHG emission include national indicator| per capita indicator| per GDP indicator| and international trade indicator etc. The introduction to the above indicators is put forward and their merits and demerits are analyzed. Based on the GHG emission data from the World Resource Institute (WRI)| the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)| and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)| the results of each indictor are calculated for the world| for the eight G8 industrialized countries (USA| UK| Canada| Japan| Germany| France| Italy and Russia)| and the five major developing countries including China| Brazil| India| South Africa and Mexico. The paper points out that all these indicators have some limitations. The Indicator of Industrialized Accumulative Emission per Capita (IAEC) is put forward as the equitable indicator to evaluate the industrialized historical accumulative emission per capita of every country. IAEC indicator can reflect the economic achievement of GHG emission enjoyed by the current generations in every country and their commitments. The analysis of IAEC indicates that the historical accumulative emission per capita in industrialized countries such as UK and USA were typically higher than those of the world average and the developing countries. Emission indicator per capita per GDP| consumptive emission indicator and survival emission indicator are also put forward and discussed in the paper. 8801,2008,2,4,A reassessment of Saltuarius swaini (Lacertilia : Diplodactylidae) in southeastern Queensland and New South Wales; Two new taxa| phylogeny| biogeography and conservation,The Saltuarius swaini lineage comprises four species: S. swaini (Wells & Wellington| 1985)| S. wyberba (Couper et al.| 1997)| S. moritzi n.sp. and S. kateae n.sp. These are diagnosed by scalation and colour pattern differences; high levels of discrimination between these species were obtained in genetic and multivariate morphological analyses. Two species| Saltuarius swaini and S. wyberba| occur in both southeastern Queensland and northeastern N.S.W. The former is a rainforest obligate| the latter saxicolous. Saltuarius moritzi and S. kateae n.spp. are restricted to northeastern N.S.W. The former is widespread and the least specific in geological and substrate associations. The latter is restricted to the Mt Marsh area. The genus has a rainforest ancestry. Divergence within the "S. swaini" lineage may date to the latest Eocene-Early Miocene. We hypothesize that populations of ancestral leaf-tailed geckos would have been severely fragmented since the Mid Tertiary forcing retreat to rainforest refugia and driving allopatric speciation. Some populations shifted from trees to rocks. All four taxa are well-represented in existing reserves. Saltuarius swaini| a species with a continuous rainforest history and low levels of genetic variation| may be disadvantaged by ecological stasis in the face of global warming. 9177,2008,3,3,A review on buildings energy consumption information,The rapidly growing world energy use has already raised concerns over supply difficulties| exhaustion of energy resources and heavy environmental impacts (ozone layer depletion| global warming| climate change| etc.). The global contribution from buildings towards energy consumption| both residential and commercial| has steadily increased reaching figures between 20% and 40% in developed countries| and has exceeded the other major sectors: industrial and transportation. Growth in population| increasing demand for building services and comfort levels| together with the rise in time spent inside buildings| assure the upward trend in energy demand will continue in the future. For this reason| energy efficiency in buildings is today a prime objective for energy policy at regional| national and international levels. Among building services| the growth in HVAC systems energy use is particularly significant (50% of building consumption and 20% of total consumption in the USA). This paper analyses available information concerning energy consumption in buildings| and particularly related to HVAC systems. Many questions arise: Is the necessary information available? Which are the main building types? What end uses should be considered in the breakdown? Comparisons between different countries are presented specially for commercial buildings. The case of offices is analysed in deeper detail. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9145,2008,2,3,A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on South American farms,This study estimates the impact of climate change on South American agriculture taking into account farmer adaptations. The study used a Ricardian analysis of 2300 farms to explore the effects of global warming on land values. In order to predict climate change impacts for this century| were examined climate change scenarios predicted by three Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models (AOGCM): the Canadian Climate Center (CCC)| the Centre for Climate System Research (CCSR)| and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) models. Several econometric specifications were tested| and five separate regressions were run: for all farms| small household farms| large commercial farms| rainfed farms| and irrigated farms. Farmland values will decrease as temperature increases| but also as rainfall increases except for the case of irrigated farms. Under the severe Canadian Climate Center (CCC) scenario| South American farmers will lose on average 14% of their income by the year 2020| 20% by 2060| and 53% by 2100| but half of these estimates under the less severe Centre for Climate System Research (CCSR) scenario. However| farms will lose only small amounts of income under the mild and wet Parallel Climate Model (PCM) scenario. Both small household farms and large commercial farms are highly vulnerable| but small farms are more vulnerable to warming| while large farms are more vulnerable to rainfall increases. Both rainfed and irrigated farms will lose their incomes by more than 50% by 2100| with slightly more severe damage to irrigated farms| but the subsample analysis treats irrigation as exogenous. 8633,2008,2,4,A rice mutant with enhanced amylose content in endosperm without affecting amylopectin structure,The Wx(b) gene| one of the alleles at the rice waxy locus| responds to environmental temperatures during seed development and| as a result| the amylose content fluctuates and affects rice quality. Seeds of a low-amylose variety 'Snow Pearl' could be visibly distinguished depending on whether they matured in warm or cool temperatures; based on this| we isolated a mutant candidate| namely| the enhanced amylose content (ENA) mutant| which showed enhanced amylose content in the endosperm. The amylose contents of ENA mutants that matured at 20 degrees C and 26 degrees C were 6-7% higher than those of Snow Pearl. As the chain length distributions of amylopectin were almost identical between ENA and Snow Pearl| the mutation was not the amylose-extender mutation| but a new mutation that enhanced amylose content in the rice endosperm. Furthermore| ENA and Snow Pearl had a single nucleotide polymorphism on the third exon of the Wx gene and a single base change at the 5' splice junction of the first intron specific to the Wx(b) gene. Genetic analysis revealed that enhanced amylose content is controlled by 2 recessive genes. Thus| we isolated a rice mutant with enhanced amylose content in the endosperm without affecting the amylopectin structure. As global warming or higher maturation temperatures decrease the amylose content in rice endosperms| the mutant obtained in this study would be useful in breeding programs to diversify grain quality and to understand the genetic and molecular mechanisms of amylose synthesis. 8580,2008,4,4,A roadmap for humidity and moisture measurement,An initial roadmap for humidity and related measurements was developed in Spring 2006 as part of the EUROMET iMERA activity toward increasing impact from national investment in European metrology R&D. The conclusions address both humidity (for which standards and traceability methodologies exist| but need to be developed) and moisture content of materials (for which measurement traceability is more problematic and is not so well developed in general). The roadmap represents a shared vision of how humidity and moisture measurements and standards should develop over the next 15 years to meet future needs| open to revision as needs and technologies evolve. The roadmap identifies the main social and economic triggers that drive developments in humidity and moisture measurements and standards-notably| global warming and advanced manufacturing processes. Stemming from these triggers| key targets that require improved humidity and moisture measurements are identified. In view of global warming| one key target is the development of improved models of climate through improved measurements of atmospheric water vapor. A further target is the reduction of carbon emissions through humidity measurement to optimize industrial heat treatment and combustion processes| and through humidity and moisture measurements to achieve energy-efficient buildings. For high-performance manufacturing| one key target is improved precision control of manufacturing processes through better humidity and moisture measurements. Another key target is contaminant-free manufacture in industries such as microelectronics| through high-purity gases of known moisture content at the parts-per-trillion level. To enable these outcomes| the roadmap identifies the advances needed in measurement standards. These include the following: improved trace humidity standards; new humidity standards to cover high temperatures and pressures| steam| and non-air gases; and improved standards for moisture content of materials. Technologies that are likely to be harnessed are also identified| such as emerging laboratory techniques| existing and new research-grade hygrometers| hygro-thermal modeling| and nanotechnology. 8545,2008,5,3,A role for atmospheric CO(2) in preindustrial climate forcing,Complementary to measurements in Antarctic ice cores| stomatal frequency analysis of leaves of land plants preserved in peat and lake deposits can provide a proxy record of preindustrial atmospheric CO(2) concentration. CO(2) trends based on leaf remains of Quercus robur (English oak) from the Netherlands support the presence of significant CO(2) variability during the first half of the last millennium. The amplitude of the reconstructed multidecadal fluctuations| up to 34 parts per million by volume| considerably exceeds maximum shifts measured in Antarctic ice. Inferred changes in CO(2) radiative forcing are of a magnitude similar to variations ascribed to other mechanisms| particularly solar irradiance and volcanic activity| and may therefore call into question the concept of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| which assumes an insignificant role of CO(2) as a preindustrial climate-forcing factor. The stomata-based CO(2) trends correlate with coeval sea-surface temperature trends in the North Atlantic Ocean| suggesting the possibility of an oceanic source/sink mechanism for the recorded CO(2) changes. 8861,2008,3,3,A screening model for CO2 flooding and storage in Gulf Coast reservoirs based on dimensionless groups,Concerns over global warming have led to interest in removing greenhouse gases| specifically CO2 from the atmosphere. Sequestration of CO| in oil reservoirs as part of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects is one method that is being considered. This paper first presents the scaling groups necessary to describe CO2 flooding for a typical line-drive pattern and then uses these groups in a Box-Behnken experimental design to create a screening model most applicable to candidate Gulf Coast reservoirs (Box and Behnken 1960). By generating oil recovery and CO2 storage curves| the model estimates the cumulative oil recovery and CO2 storage potential for a given reservoir. Past screening models-Rivas et al. (1992) and Diaz et al. (1996)-focused only on oil recovery and simply assigned qualitative rankings to reservoirs. Models that did include quantitative results| including CO2 Prophet (Dobitz and Prieditis 1994) and the CO2 Predictive Model (Paul et al. 1984)| did not include the effects of dip. This model focuses on both oil recovery and CO2 storage potential| produces quantitative results for each| and includes the effects of dip. This model quickly estimates the oil recovery and CO2 storage potential for a reservoir. Operators can quickly screen large databases of reservoirs to identify the best candidates for CO2 flooding and storage. The scaling groups also provide the basis for future models that may be more specific to other regions. The results show that continuous CO2 flooding can be fully described using 10 dimensionless groups: aspect ratio| dip angle group| water and CO2 mobility ratios| buoyancy number| dimensionless injection and producing pressures| residual oil saturation to water and gas| and initial oil saturation. The effects of capillary forces and dispersion were secondary effects in this model and were not included in the scaling. Dimensionless oil recovery was effectively modeled with the dimensionless oil breakthrough time and the dimensionless recovery at three different dimensionless times| while CO2 storage potential was calculated only at the final dimensionless time. The reservoir-specific parameters discussed above were calculated from response surface fits. The scaling does not work as well at small buoyancy numbers; however| it is effective in the range of values typical of Gulf Coast reservoirs. 1241,2008,2,3,A simple equation for regional climate change and associated uncertainty,Simple equations are developed to express regional climate changes for the twenty-first century and associated uncertainty in terms of the global temperature change (GTC) without a dependence on the underlying emission pathways. The equations are applied to regional temperature and precipitation changes over different regions of the world| and relevant parameters are calculated using the latest multimodel ensemble of global climate change simulations. Examples are also shown of how to use the equations to develop probability density functions (PDFs) of regional climate change based on PDFs of GTC. The main advantage of these equations is that they can be used to estimate regional changes from GTC obtained either from simple and intermediate complexity models or from target CO. stabilization concentrations. 8440,2008,4,4,A Simulated Heterogeneous Reaction of SO(2) on the Surface of Hematite at Different Temperatures,Changes of the Sulfate product and optical coefficients during the heterogeneous reaction of SO(2) on the surface of hematite at different temperatures were investigated using in situ diffuse reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (DFTIRS)| ion chromatogram (IC)| and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Simulations revealed that within the ambient temperature of 15-45 degrees C| the yield and velocity of sulfate product| absorption coefficient| and backward scattering coefficient firstly increased at 15-35 degrees C and then decreased at 35-45 degrees C. At persistent temperature| the velocity of sulfate production showed an initial increase followed by a decrease and finally stabilized. There was a high exponential correlation between the optical coefficients and the amount of sulfate product generated. This result is important in understanding the heterogeneous reaction of SO(2) on the surface of hematite in the environment and the assessment of this reaction's impact on sulfate production and radiative forcing| considering the phenomenon of global warming. 9251,2008,3,4,A single-chamber SOFC stack operating in engine exhaust,Heat engines emit huge amounts of exhaust which contain considerable quantities of| heat and chemical energies. An increasing public awareness of global warming and oil depletion has required the development of innovative methods of recovering energy from such exhaust. A promising approach is to produce electricity from unburned fuel by using a fuel cell system. The exhaust includes cracked-light hydrocarbons| offering the possibility of applying this system to a power generator. Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) can work at elevated temperatures but have poor thermal and mechanical shock resistance| In this study| we address this problem by operating the fuel cell system in a single-chamber mode| wherein no separation between fuel and oxidant gases is required. This operation provides high tolerance toward thermal cycling and breakage of the electrolyte. As a result| a twelve-cell stack exhibits stable and high performance in the exhaust from a motorcycle. (c) 2007 The Electrochemical Society.
1258,2008,4,4,A spatial high-resolution model of the dynamics of agricultural land use,An area model is presented for agricultural land use| based on a generalized linear mixed model. This model is spatially explicit and dynamic and| although it uses aggregated data| allows for heterogeneity of behavior among individual farmers. The parameters of the fixed component of the model are obtained using an estimation equations approach| and the structure of spatiotemporal correlation is assessed using empirical semivariograms. The model is illustrated using as an example the dynamics of agricultural land use in the Lower Guadalquivir area in Spain. A simulation study indicates that the model gives poor results if the heterogeneity of individual behavior and spatiotemporal autocorrelation are ignored. 1085,2008,2,3,A Statistical Approach to Modelling the Temporal Patterns of Ocean Storms,The world's sandy beaches| already eroding at rates of concern to coastal managers| are facing a further threat based on predictions of global climate change. Although mean sea level rise has long been recognized as a likely consequence of climate change| it has been suggested that there may also be a change in ocean storminess-that is| the intensity and frequency of storm events. While the effects of a change in wave height can be handled with existing analysis methods| the effects of a change in the rate at which storms arrive are less obvious and harder to predict. As a prelude to model studies investigating coastal response to changes in storminess| it is necessary to have a reliable method for generating storm and wave histories that contain waves that not only conform to known distributions of height and period but that also arrive at the proper rate in time. In the current work a statistical model of the arrival rate of storms and the wave heights within those storms has been developed. Storminess can be modelled by describing interstorm period| storm duration| the average wave height| and the temporal distribution of storm significant wave heights using methods that have been applied in rainfall modelling. The model has been verified against existing wave climate parameters of wave exceedence and wave persistence| and it has been shown to reproduce these statistics reliably. 8439,2008,2,4,A Study of Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Enhancement and Optimization of Oxygen Generation by Condensed WaterElectrolysis Using KOH and NaOH as Electrolytes,In order to assure energy conservation| modem buildings have increased the airtightness of their structures| and decreased their ventilation volume| thus leading to a deterioration of indoor air quality (IAQ). With respect to this fact| the study employs condensed water electrolysis by solar energy to improve the IAQ. Besides hydrogen that can serve as substitute energy for environmental protection| oxygen can even offer valuable usages. The inflow of oxygen to indoors can reduce the concentration of CO(2)| While the optimal IAQ is maintained| not only the indoor ventilation load of air conditioners can be reduced with the decreased inflow of ventilation volume from the outdoors| the health of people indoors can also be maintained.. Using NaOH/KOH electrolytes of different concentrations| and through the inflow of the external air of different proportions to indoors for ventilation| the study is able to explain the relationship between the different indoor ventilation rates and the different descending rates of CO(2) concentration indoors. The research results show that among the electrolyte samples of the study| KOH with 30 wt. % has the best electrolysis effect. If the cost for the establishment of a solar energy equipment is not taken into account| while a good CO(2) concentration is maintained indoors| the energy conservation can at least be as high as 95.2%. The study contributes not only to the decrease of ventilation volume in order to conserve energy and to reduce the CO(2) concentration indoors effectively| but also tp achieve the effect of double decrease of carbon emission during the serious climatic changes caused by global warming. Finally| the study hopes to pursue the three goals of environmental protection| energy conservation| and health simultaneously.
8936,2008,3,4,A study of the characteristics of mixture formation and combustion in a PCCI engine using an early multiple injection strategy,As world attention has focused on global warming and air pollution| high-efficiency diesel engines with low CO2 emissions have become more attractive. Premixed diesel engines in particular have the potential to achieve a more homogeneous mixture in the cylinder which results in lower NO| and soot emission. It is well-known that the injection strategies such as the injection timing and the spray included angle are important to create the optimal mixture formation for a PCCI (premixed charge compression ignition) engine. In this research| we investigated the effect of injection angle| injection timing| and frequency on the combustion and mixture formation in a direct injection type PCCI engine using an early multiple injection strategy. The experimental results showed that the mixture formation| IMEP| and emission characteristics in the PCCI engine were dominantly affected by the fuel injection timing and spray included angle. In particular| the injection timing of 65 degrees BTDC with the spray included angle of 100 degrees effectively reduced the smoke emission in the early single injection case. In other words| the smoke number was less than 1 FSN when the IMEP exceeded 3.5 bar. The multiple injection method also resulted in more homogeneous mixture formation due to decrease in spray penetration and increase in the total amount of fuel evaporation in the combustion bowl. In addition| a simulation was conducted in order to estimate the mixture distribution within the cylinder according to injection conditions such as spray included angle and injection timing. The simulation result is very effective to clarify the air fuel distribution of a PCCI combustion. 8934,2008,3,4,A study on ice control for the production of 5th-generation water resources and the arrest of global warming,After a lengthy investigation on the unnatural phenomena of ice| such as the formation of ice valleys| ice caves| and ice spikes| it was found that ice will play a very important role in the next generation. It is suggested in this study that natural evaporation can be reduced| that the condensation of water vapor can be promoted| and that a tremendous amount of better-quality water can be generated for future use through the artificial control of ice. It was likewise found that ice that has been increased through ice control reflects more insolation and can suppress global warming. When applied to the central part of Korea| ice control can prevent 614 mm of water from evaporating for eight months| without refrigerating energy. The amount of water that can be prevented from evaporating will reach 438 million tons when applied to Daechung Dam| which has a water surface of 73 km(2) and many streams. Furthermore| by using 1 ton of continuously supplied ice| water vapor can be condensed into water resources at a rate of 37|440 g h(-1) in 15 degrees C air and 0.5 m s(-1) wind. It is also calculated that 4.8 x 10(6) km(2) of additional ice cover can terminate the global warming process. Ice control procedures involving the forced thickening of ice and delayed thawing are introduced herein. The related thermodynamics| simple experiments that were conducted| and observed results are reviewed briefly. To date| no harmful side effects of the use of ice control have been documented. 1208,2008,2,4,A systematic method for 3D mapping of mangrove forests based on Shuttle Radar Topography Mission elevation data| ICEsat/GLAS waveforms and field data: Application to Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta| Colombia,Mangrove forests are found within the intertropical zone and are one of the most biodiverse and productive wetlands on Earth. We focus oil the Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta (CGSM) in Colombia| the largest coastal lagoon-delta ecosystem in the Caribbean area with an extension of 1280 kin 2| where one of the largest mangrove rehabilitation projects in Latin America is currently underway. Extensive man-made hydrological modifications in the region caused hypersaline soil (>90 g kg(-1)) conditions since the 1960s triggering a large dieback of mangrove wetlands (similar to 247 km(2)). In this paper| we describe a new systematic methodology to measure mangrove height and aboveground biomass by remote sensing. The method is based on SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) elevation data| ICEsat/GLAS waveforms (Ice| Cloud| and Land Elevation Satellite/Geoscience Laser Altimeter System) and field data. Since the locations of the ICEsat and field datasets do not coincide| they are used independently to calibrate SRTM elevation and produce a map of mangrove canopy height. We compared height estimation methods based on waveform centroids and the canopy height profile (CHP). Linear relationships between ICEsat height estimates and SRTM elevation were derived. We found the centroid of the canopy waveform contribution (CWC) to be the best height estimator. The field data was used to estimate a SRTM canopy height bias (-1.3 m) and estimation error (rms = 1.9 m). The relationship was applied to the SRTM elevation data to produce a mangrove canopy height map. Finally| we used field data and published allometric equations to derive an empirical relationship between canopy height and biomass. This relationship was used to scale the mangrove height map and estimate aboveground biomass distribution for the entire CGSM. The mean mangrove canopy height in CGSM is 7.7 m and most of the biomass is concentrated in forests around 9 m in height. Our biomass maps will enable estimation of regeneration rates of mangrove forests under hydrological rehabilitation at large spatial scales over the next decades. They will also be used to assess how highly disturbed mangrove forests respond to increasing sea level rise under current global climate change scenarios. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1136,2008,3,3,A theoretical study on decentralized space heating system,Global climate change mitigation requires the fossil fuel consumption substantially reduced. Space heating is an energy-consuming sector Despite the fact that the thermal efficiency of current space heating systems has achieved a value higher than 85%| corresponding to lower than 40 kg c.e./G.J| there is still a big potential for energy conservation. In order to realize the full potential| investigations of heating systems should appeal to reversibility/exergy analysis made on total energy concept basis. This paper starts with an introduction of the concept "reversible mode. of heating| leading the readers think of space heating in terms of reversibility. Right after| a systematic reversibility analysis on a "mine to home" basis is conducted to reveal the impact of any irreversibility of all subsystems or devices involved in the total energy system of heating on the fuel/monetary specific consumption of unit end-use heat. The paper points out that although combined heat and power (CHP) and electrically driven heat pump are both of "reversible mode| the former is far more favorable in terms of energy conservation. The recently ascent decentralized energy system provides the best circumstances for CHP implementation. The demand-side improvement is a topic of most importance but frequently neglected. This study reveals that. if properly engineered| this improvement together with adopting a direct type of heat grid might lower the fuel specific consumption of end-use heat of CHP to a level as low as 13-9 kg c.e./GJ. 1347,2008,3,3,A three-fund approach to incorporating government| public and private forest stewards into a REDD funding mechanism,The role of tropical deforestation in global climate change is a strong justification for its inclusion in the UN's global climate treaty. In order to successfully address deforestation and forest degradation in developing Countries. a compensation scheme must include the main actors involved in deforestation and provide incentives for forest stewards who protect forest carbon stores. Since each tropical forest country represents a different mix of public and private tenure of forested land| policies at the UNFCCC level will need to be sufficiently flexible to allow Countries to tailor REDD programs to reflect these differences. At the same time| Parties need to negotiate a basic REDD structure that can apply to all countries as a framework under which to build their national programs. We propose an approach that will incorporate the three main actors of deforestation and forest protection in tropical regions: government| private forest owners| and public forest stewards (including indigenous people and others). These funds and the activities supported by them are envisoned to function most effectively under a combined market and non-market approach. 8886,2008,3,4,A two-stage catalyst bed concept for conversion of carbon dioxide into methanol,Conversion of CO2 into methanol by catalytic hydrogenation has been recognized as one of the most promising processes for stabilizing the atmospheric CO2 level| and furthermore the methanol produced could be used as fuel or basic chemical for satisfying the large demand world-wide. The present work investigates a two-stage catalyst bed concept for conversion of CO2 to methanol. A system with two catalyst beds instead of one single catalyst bed is developed for conversion of CO2 to methanol. in the first catalyst bed| the synthesis gas is partly converted to methanol in a conventional water-cooled reactor. This bed operates at higher than normal operating temperature and at high yield. in the second bed| the reaction heat is used to pre-heat the feed gas to the first bed. The continuously reduced temperature in this bed provides increasing thermodynamic equilibrium potential. in this bed| the reaction rate is much lower and| consequently| so is the amount of the reaction heat. This feature results in milder temperature profiles in the second bed because less heat is liberated compared to the first bed. In this way the catalysts are exposed to less extreme temperatures and| catalyst deactivation via sintering is circumvented. In this work| a one-dimensional dynamic plug flow dynamic is used to analyze and compare the performance of two-stage bed and conventional single bed reactors. The results of this work show that the two-stage catalyst bed system can be operated with higher conversion and longer catalyst life time. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1183,2008,2,4,A validated mechanistic model of carrot (Daucus carota L.) growth,A mechanistic model of carrot vegetative and root development was constructed. This model determined canopy photosynthesis over a day| assimilates were then partitioned into either roots or leaves via temperature dependent partitioning coefficients. Assimilates were lost via terms describing growth and maintenance respiration. The model was calibrated on data from four different carrot cultivars| originating from the UK (Autumn King)| Syria (Carrots)| Poland (Dolanka) and Russia (Hibinskaja)| grown in controlled environment glasshouse compartments at one of six temperatures (9-30 degrees C) repeated over three sowing dates. Calibration of the model showed that it could account for between 83 and 95% of the variance in carrot plant and root dry weights. The model was then validated using independent data from the same cultivars of carrots grown in the field at Reading. In this instance| the model accounted for 75 and 79% of the variance in plant and root weight| respectively. Two other independent data sets were used to validate the model| including carrot of a different cultivar (Panther) grown in phytotrons at temperatures between 9 and 21 degrees C| at two different locations and over a three sowing dates. In this instance| the model accounted for between 63 and 69% of the variance in root weight. The model also predicted that if ambient carbon dioxide levels increased from 348 to 551 mu mol mol(-1)| root dry weight would increase by 12%| which is within the margin of error of the experimental value of 16% reported in the literature. The model can therefore be used to study the potential impacts of global climate change on carrot production| as well as to rapidly predict whether germplasm is suited to any particular environment. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8970,2008,2,4,A watershed modeling approach to streamflow reconstruction from tree-ring records,Insight into long-term changes of streamflow is critical for addressing implications of global warming for sustainable water management. To date| dendrohydrologists have employed sophisticated regression techniques to extend runoff records| but this empirical approach cannot directly test the influence of watershed factors that alter streamflow independently of climate. We designed a mechanistic watershed model to calculate streamflows at annual timescales using as few inputs as possible. The model was calibrated for upper reaches of the Walker River| which straddles the boundary between the Sierra Nevada of California and the Great Basin of Nevada. Even though the model incorporated simplified relationships between precipitation and other components of the hydrologic cycle| it predicted water year streamflows with correlations of 0.87 when appropriate precipitation values were used. 8458,2008,5,4,Abrupt environmental and climatic change during the deposition of the Early Permian Haushi limestone| Oman,During the late Sakmarian (Early Permian)| the Haushi limestone was deposited in a shallow embayment of the Neotethys Ocean covering what is now north Oman and parts of southeast Saudi Arabia. The sea persisted through the late Sakmarian| but by the time of the deposition of the ?Artinskian Middle Gharif Member| limestone deposition had ceased and generally and fluvial and minor lacustrine palaeonvironments in a low accommodation space setting had become established. Analysis of three subsurface cored boreholes and other surface sections of the Haushi limestone shows an upward change in microfacies from bryonoderm to molechfor associations reflecting the passage from heterozoan to photozoan communities. The biotic turnover indicates cooler climate and eutrophy in the lower parts of the unit and an upward trend towards warmer climate and more oligotrophic conditions in the upper part. Common autochthonous algal palynomorphs and high delta(13)C(org) in the lower part suggest that high nutrient levels were due to greater fluvial runoff| while allochthonous pollen assemblages indicate that the climate of the hinterland became more and through the deposition of the unit| causing upward increasing seawater trends in delta(18)O(carb). Several extraneous factors are likely to have contributed to this palaeoenvironmental change| which was more abrupt than in other parts of post glacial Early Permian Gondwana. First| the Haushi sea| being an embayment partially isolated by Hawasina| rift shoulder uplift| was more vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff than an open sea. Second| continued post glacial global warming and small northward movement of Gondwana may have contributed to temperature increase. Aridity may have been caused by the onset of monsoons and the influence of rift shoulders to the northeast and southeast. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. Ail rights reserved. 1050,2008,3,2,Abundance and community composition of methanotrophs in a Chinese paddy soil under long-term fertilization practices,Background| aim| and scope As the second most important greenhouse gas| methane (CH(4)) is produced from many sources such as paddy fields. Methane-oxidizing bacteria (methanotrophs) consume CH(4) in paddy soil and| therefore| reduce CH(4) emission to the atmosphere. In order to estimate the contribution of paddy fields as a source of CH(4)| it is important to monitor the effects of fertilizer applications on the shifts of soil methanotrophs| which are targets in strategies to combat global climate change. In this study| real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) based on 16S rRNA and pmoA genes| respectively| were used to analyze the soil methanotrophic abundance and community diversity under four fertilization treatments: urea (N)| urea and potassium chloride (NK)| urea| superphosphate| and potassium chloride (NPK)| and urea| superphosphate| potassium chloride| and crop residues (NPK+C)| compared to an untreated control (CON). The objective of this study was to examine whether soil methanotrophs responded to the long-term| different fertilizer regimes by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative molecular approaches. Materials and methods Soil samples were collected from the Taoyuan Experimental Station of Agro-ecosystem Observation at Changde (28 degrees 55' N| 111 degrees 26' E)| central Hunan Province of China| in July 2006. Soil DNAs were extracted from the samples| then the 16S rRNA genes were quantified by real-time PCR and the pmoA genes were amplified via general PCR followed by DGGE| cloning| sequencing| and phylogenetic analysis. The community diversity indices were assessed through the DGGE profile. Results Except for NPK| other treatments of N| NK| and NPK+C showed significantly higher copy numbers of type I methanotrophs (7.0-9.6x10(7)) than CON (5.1x10(7)). The copy numbers of type II methanotrophs were significantly higher in NPK+C (2.8x10(8)) and NK (2.5x10(8)) treatments than in CON (1.4x10(8)). Moreover| the ratio of type II to type I methanotrophic copy numbers ranged from 1.88 to 3.32| indicating that the type II methanotrophs dominated in all treatments. Cluster analyses based on the DGGE profile showed that the methanotrophic community in NPK+C might respond more sensitively to the environmental variation. Phylogenetic analysis showed that 81% of the obtained pmoA sequences were classified as type I methanotrophs. Furthermore| the type I-affiliated sequences were related to Methylobacter| Methylomicrobium| Methylomonas| and some uncultured methanotrophic clones| and those type II-like sequences were affiliated with Methylocystis and Methylosinus genera. Discussion There was an inhibitory effect on the methanotrophic abundance in the N and a stimulating effect in the NK and NPK+C treatments| respectively. During the rice-growing season| the type II methanotrophs might be more profited from such a coexistence of low O(2) and high CH(4) concentration environment than the type I methanotrophs. However| type I methanotrophs seemed to be more frequently detected. The relatively complex diversity pattern in the NPK+C treatment might result from the strong CH(4) production. Conclusions Long-term fertilization regimes can both affect the abundance and the composition of the type I and type II methanotrophs. The inhibited effects on methanotrophic abundance were found in the N treatment| compared to the stimulated effects from the NK and NPK+C treatments. The fertilizers of nitrogen| potassium| and the crop residues could be important factors controlling the abundance and community composition of the methanotrophs in the paddy soil. Recommendations and perspectives Methanotrophs are a fascinating group of microorganisms playing an important role in the biogeochemical carbon cycle and in the control of global climate change. However| it is still a challenge for the cultivation of the methanotrophs| although three isolates were obtained in the extreme environments very recently. Therefore| future studies will be undoubtedly conducted via molecular techniques just like the applications in this study. 1151,2008,2,4,Accentuation of phosphorus limitation in Geranium dissectum by nitrogen: an ecological genomics study,Global climate change experiments have shown changes in productivity| phenology| species composition| and nutrient acquisition and availability; yet| the underlying mechanisms for these responses| especially in multi-factorial experiments| are poorly understood. Altered nutrient availability is a major consequence of global change| directly due to anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition| and indirectly due to shifts in temperature and water availability. In the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment| microarrays were used to investigate the transcriptional responses of the dominant dicot| Geranium dissectum| to simulated N deposition. The transcript levels for several photosynthetic genes were elevated in plants exposed to elevated N| as has been reported previously| validating the use of microarrays under field conditions. A coordinated response of a suite of genes previously reported to be induced in response to phosphate (Pi) deficiency was observed| including genes for the glycolytic bypass pathway| which reduces ATP and Pi requirements for sugar degradation| suggesting that the plants were phosphorus (P) limited. Confirming this conclusion| foliar P levels in G. dissectum leaves were reduced to levels that are suboptimal for growth in plants grown in elevated N and elevated CO(2) plots. Thus| although plants commonly produce more biomass in response to elevated N in native grasslands| this growth response may be suboptimal due to a P limitation. Foliar P levels in plants from elevated CO(2) plots were also suboptimal for growth. However| genes indicative of Pi deficiency were not significantly expressed at higher levels. Transcript levels for genes involved in nitrate uptake and assimilation were unchanged by the elevated N deposition treatment| possibly due to the combined impacts of elevated N deposition and P limitation under field conditions. These observations highlight the complexity of the impact of global climate change factors in the field. 8923,2008,2,4,Acclimation to temperature and temperature sensitivity of metabolism by ectomycorrhizal fungi,Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi contribute significantly to ecosystem respiration| but little research has addressed the effect of temperature on ECM fungal respiration. Some plants have the ability to acclimate to temperature such that long-term exposure to warmer conditions slows respiration at a given measurement temperature and long-term exposure to cooler conditions increases respiration at a given measurement temperature. We examined acclimation to temperature and temperature sensitivity (Q(10)) of respiration by ECM fungi by incubating them for a week at one of three temperatures and measuring respiration over a range of temperatures. Among the 12 ECM fungal isolates that were tested| Suillus intermedius| Cenococcum geophilum| and Lactarius cf. pubescens exhibited significant acclimation to temperature| exhibiting an average reduction in respiration of 20-45% when incubated at 23 degrees C compared with when incubated at 11 or 17 degrees C. The isolates differed significantly in their Q(10) values| which ranged from 1.67 to 2.56. We also found that half of the isolates significantly increased Q(10) with an increase in incubator temperature by an average of 15%. We conclude that substantial variation exists among ECM fungal isolates in their ability to acclimate to temperature and in their sensitivity to temperature. As soil temperatures increase| ECM fungi that acclimate may require less carbon from their host plants than fungi that do not acclimate. The ability of some ECM fungi to acclimate may partially ameliorate the anticipated positive feedback between soil respiration and temperature. 1316,2008,2,4,Acclimatization in tropical reef corals,Global climate change (GCC) is the most widespread environmental peril facing tropical coral reefs| yet the capacity of scleractinian corals to survive the challenge is not well understood. Acclimatization is a primary mechanism by which organisms match their physiology in a timely and beneficial. way to a rapidly changing environment| and so it is not surprising that the question 'can corals acclimatize to GCC effects?' is a central theme in coral reef science today. Here| we argue that acclimatization in corals| as in all organisms| is axiomatic-i.e. evident without proof or argument- and that the emphasis on whether corals can acclimatize to GCC is distracting. The key to understanding how corals will respond to future environmental challenges lies in understanding the extent to which acclimatization is important. This is a subject that has received great attention in other systems| and we think that coral biologists can benefit from a deeper understanding of the classical physiological expression of acclimatization| and a broader appreciation of the experimental designs that are required for elucidating the complex relationships among physiology| physical conditions| and recent history. 9004,2008,2,4,Accumulated winter chill is decreasing in the fruit growing regions of California,We examined trends in accumulated winter chill across the fruit growing region of central California and its internal coastal valleys. We tested the hypothesis that global warming is in motion in California and is causing accumulated winter chill to decrease across the fruit and nut growing regions of California. The detection of potential trends in accumulated winter chill (between 0 and 7.2 degrees C) was determined using two complementary climate datasets. The California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) contains hourly climate data and is suitable for computing accumulated chill hours and chill degree-hours. But| its longest data records extend back only to the 1980s. The National Weather Service Coop climate record is longer| extending beyond the 1950s at many sites. But its datasets only contain information on daily maximum and minimum temperatures. To assess long term trends in winter chill accumulation| we developed an algorithm that converted information from daily maximum and minimum temperature into accumulated hours of winter chill and summations of chill-degree hours. These inferred calculations of chill hour accumulation were tested with and validated by direct measurements from hourly-based data from the CIMIS network. With the combined climate datasets| we found that the annual accumulation of winter chill hours and chill degree hours is diminishing across the fruit and nut growing regions of California. Observed trends in winter chill range between -50 and -260 chill hours per decade. We also applied out analytical algorithm to project changes in winter chill using regional climate projections of temperature for three regions in the Central Valley. Predicted rates of reduced winter chill| for the period between 1950 and 2100| are on the order of -40 h per decade. By the end of the 21st century| orchards in California are expected to experience less than 500 chill hours per winter. This chronic and steady reduction in winter chill is expected to have deleterious economic and culinary impact on fruit and nut production in California by the end of the 21st Century. 1266,2008,2,4,Accumulation of organic carbon over the past 150 years in five freshwater peatlands in western and central Europe,Under predicted scenarios of global climate change| peatlands may become a net source of greenhouse gases which will accelerate warming of the atmosphere. Comparative studies of peat bogs along present climatic gradients may provide an insight into the future response of boreal and subarctic peatlands to changing temperature and moisture. Three maritime peat bogs in the British Isles| and two high-elevation peatlands in the Czech Republic were studied. All sites were relatively wet| the mean annual temperatures were higher by up to 6 degrees C at the British/Irish sites than at the Czech sites. Cumulative carbon content in Pb-210-dated Sphagnum-dominated vertical peat cores increased from the warmer to the colder sites when evaluated for the most recent decades (since ca. 1950). That would correspond to formation of thinner| more highly decomposed peat deposits over the long-term in warmer conditions| and deeper peat bogs in colder conditions. However| when cumulative carbon content was evaluated for the last ca. 150 years| no relationship was found between mean annual temperature and the carbon pool size. Even along broad present-day climatic gradients| site-specific factors controlled organic carbon preservation in peat. Pollen analysis was instrumental in corroborating the Pb-210 dates| identifying wet and dry periods in the past| and it also provided evidence for increasing nitrogen loads in wetland areas. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V. 8973,2008,3,4,Achieving sustainability by introducing alternative livelihoods,The millennium ecosystem assessment report on global assessment of desertification has highlighted its worldwide impacts on the environment-increasing dust storms| floods and global warming-as well as on societies and economies. It links sustainable management of resources| and inter alia well-being of dryland populations| to reducing societal pressures on dryland ecosystems through adoption of alternative livelihoods. This paper| in combination with a companion paper by Safriel and Adeel| presents the conceptual underpinnings of this approach as well as examples of how innovative approaches for creating livelihoods can help reduce the pressure on marginal drylands. Three case studies presented are based on activities undertaken within a joint international project called sustainable management of marginal drylands. First| introduction of chicken farming to farmers in Hunshundake Sandland in northern China has reduced the pressure on grasslands and led to a major recovery of these ecosystems. Second| development of desert-based aquaculture| with accompanied longer-term storage of water| on the margins of the Cholistan desert in Pakistan has provided a new source of income for the villagers. Third| development of a new income-generating activity based on soap production from olive oil in Dana Biosphere Reserve in Jordan has demonstrated that traditional olive farming can be linked to community-based innovation to create a new| high-demand market for goods. Working with communities to develop new| sustainable livelihoods that reduce pressure on marginal drylands can thus be used as powerful tool for overcoming and reversing desertification. 9224,2008,3,2,Activated fly ash blended cement,Developing and under developing countries increases the annual cement production exponentially| since it relates the growth and economy of the country. The production of one Tonne of cement contributes about 1.1 Tonne of carbon dioxide gas to the atmosphere together with oxides of nitrogen and methane. These are the main pollutants of the atmosphere which leads to the global warming. The total carbon dioxide contribution by the world cement production industries accounts around 7 %. This paper discusses the issues of global warming and the need for the development of efficient blending material of concrete. Activated fly ash concrete at various replacement levels was found that it reduces the emission of CO2 gases and enhances the inhibition to corrosive atmosphere. 8888,2008,2,4,Adaptation to the new land or effect of global warming? An age-structured model for rapid voltinism change in an alien lepidopteran pest,Hyphantria cunea Drury invaded Japan at Tokyo in 1945 and expanded its distribution gradually into northern and south-western Japan. All populations in Japan were bivoltine until the early 1970s| at which time trivoltine populations appeared in several southern regions. Presently| H. cunea exists as separate bivoltine and trivoltine populations divided around latitude 36 degrees. In the course of this voltinism change| the mean surface temperature in Japan rose by 1.0 degrees C. To determine whether and how this temperature increase might be responsible for the voltinism change| we constructed an age-structured model incorporating growth speed driven by actual daily temperature and detailed mechanisms of diapause induction triggered by both daily photoperiod and temperature. The simulation result suggests that both the acceleration of the growth speed and the prolongation of diapause induction are necessary to cause changes in voltinism| regardless of temperature increase. We concluded that the H. cunea population changed its life-history traits as an adaptation parallel with its invasion into the south-western parts of Japan. Though the temperature increase had little effect on the fitness and heat stress in bivoltine and trivoltine populations| the trivoltine life cycle has become advantageous at least in marginal regions such as Tokyo. 8457,2008,2,4,Adapting buildings to climate changes,Attic floors are a favoured solution in refurbishing/rehabilitating residential buildings as well as for new buildings in Romania| under the conditions of climate changes and especially for adapting to the global warming phenomenon. Optimizing the thermal protection during the hot season can be made by a layer of ventilated air disposed directly under the roof covering. In order to analyse the ventilation process| and to establish design recommendations the authors have used a physical small scale model| in laboratory conditions| according the Grashof criterion. The paper is presenting a profitable utilization of similitude conditions leading to opportunities of analysing the indoor ventilation in passive system for a better energy efficiency. 9274,2008,3,3,ADJUSTING INDUSTRIAL PROCESS TO ENVIROMENTAL REGULATIONS BY CLEAN CO(2) GENERATION AND ITS EFFICIENT MANAGEMENT,Marry specialists all over the world have established that a main reason for the global warming is the alarming increase of the CO(2) participation in the terrestrial atmosphere. In this paper| we will analyse the propsed solutions to diminuate this participation and propse a new modality to manage the CO(2) emissions. After many years of scientific research| we can preset some technologies| some patented in Romania or based on solutions partially experimented| where we have paid a great attention for the ecological aspects 8530,2008,3,4,Adsorption and desorption characteristics of CF(4) on fixed bed column,Adsorption and desorption characteristics of CF(4)| which is considered a significant global warming compound| were experimentally investigated. Dynamic behavior of feed gas mixture of CF(4) and N(2) was observed by breakthrough curve. Effects of CF(4) concentrations in the feed gas were investigated| and three pressurization methods were compared. Desorption experiments were carried Out using vacuum blowdown and purge. Desorption curves with various N(2) flow rates| feed compositions| and purge time were obtained. The enrichment factor was high for low concentration of CF(4). However| the time required for complete desorption was independent of CF(4) concentration. In the operation of separate vacuum blowdown and purge steps| a short period of vacuum blowdown followed by the purge step was effective. 8850,2008,4,4,Advanced technologies for cruising AUV URASHIMA,There are concerns about the impact that global warming will have on our environment| which will inevitably result in expanding deserts and rising water levels. Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV) were considered and chosen as the most suitable tool for conducting surveys concerning these global environmental problems. JAMSTEC has started building a long-range cruising AUV. The plan for its development is in several steps. As the first step| the AUV Urashima was built in 1999| and sea trials have been held since 2000. The Urashima dived to a 3|518-m depth in 2001. At the end of February 2005| the Urashima was able to cruise autonomously and continuously for 317 km| beyond its target range of 300 km; this record is the longest one in the world. The PEFC (Polymer Electrolyte Fuel Cell) power system with metal hydrogen storage has been developed for expanding its cruising range. As the second step| the AUV Urashima-2| which will cruise more than 3|000 km| started development in 2007. The development plan of the next AUV was selected as one of the official| nationally important technologies in Japan. The deep-ocean areas we know of constitute only a small fraction of the entire deep ocean. The information that can be obtained by man-made satellites is limited to that pertaining to the surface or subsurface portions of the sea. Today| man does not have the means to canvass the entire deep ocean at one time. If a number of AUV like the Urashima autonomously cruise in various deep-ocean areas of the world| man will then| for the first time| be able to get that entire picture. 1053,2008,2,4,Advances in spring but variable autumnal trends in timing of inland wader migration,Advancement of spring migration in response to recent global climate change is well documented for a variety of bird species| but the pattern for autumn migration is rather equivocal. During a 42-year period (1964-2005) the changes in timing of spring and autumn migration of eight wader species were Studied at Multiple inland sites in Central Europe (Czech Republic and Slovakia) using ringing data. While a clear pattern was found for the advancement of the spring passage| there were variable trends in the timing of the autumn passage. Three species significantly advanced (Wood Sandpiper| Common Sandpiper and Dunlin)| three species delayed (Ruff| Snipe and Little Ringed Plover)| and two species did not change the timing of the autumn passage (Little Stint and Green Sandpiper). Earlier studies had predicted that long-distance migrants wintering South of the Sahara Would advance the timing of autumn migration| while short-distance migrants would postpone it. However| our findings do not fully conform to these predictions. Across species| the timing of both the spring and autumn passages was negatively associated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index| suggesting that even in long-distance migrants the timing of migration might be under direct environmental control. In conclusion| phenological responses of birds to recent changes in climate are quite coherent for the early phenological phases; however| the responses to later phases are not so straightforward| and the present study contributes to this diverse pattern. 1344,2008,2,4,Advances in Urban Climate Modeling,Cities interact with the atmosphere over a wide range of scales from the large-scale processes| which have a direct impact on global climate change| to smaller scales| ranging from the conurbation itself to individual buildings. The review presented in this paper analyzes some of the ways in which cities influence atmospheric thermodynamics and airborne pollutant transport. We present the main physical processes that characterize the urban local meteorology (the urban microclimate) and air pollution. We focus on small-scale impacts| including the urban heat island and its causes. The impact on the lower atmosphere over conurbations| air pollution in cities| and the effect on meteorological processes are discussed. An overview of the recent principal advances in urban climatology and air quality modeling in atmospheric numerical models is also presented. 9103,2008,3,3,Aerobic in-vessel composting versus bioreactor landfilling using life cycle inventory models,Potential environmental impacts associated with aerobic in-vessel composting and bioreactor landfilling were assessed using life cycle inventory (LCI) tool. LCI models for solid waste management (SWM) were also developed and used to compare environmental burdens of alternative SWM scenarios. Results from the LCI models showed that the estimated energy recovery from bioreactor landfilling was about 9.6 megajoules (MJ) per kilogram (kg) of waste. Air emissions from in-vessel composting contributed to a global warming potential (GWP) of 0.86 kg of CO2-equivalent per kg of waste| compared to 1.54 kg of CO2-equivalent from bioreactor landfill. Waterborne emissions contributing to aquatic toxicity is less coming from in-vessel composting than from bioreactor landfilling. However| emissions to air and water that contribute to human toxicity are greater for the composting option than for the landfill option. Full costs for in- vessel composting is about 6 times greater than for the landfilling alternative. Integration of individually collected commingled recyclables| yard wastes| and residual wastes with windrow composting and bioreactor landfilling produces airborne and waterborne emissions with the least environmental effects among the alternatives considered. It also yields greater energy savings due to the conversion of the landfill gas (LFG) to electrical energy than the option that diverts yard waste| food waste and soiled paper for aerobic in-vessel composting. However| this scenario costs 68% more than that where the commingled collection of wastes is integrated with in-vessel composting and conventional landfilling| owing to increased collection costs. 8660,2008,3,4,Agriculture and development,Agriculture is closely linked to many concerns| including biodiversity loss| global warming and water availability. The recent International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) report| published on 15 April 2008| considers ways to reduce hunger and poverty| improve rural livelihoods and foster equitable and sustainable development. Sponsored by the United Nations| the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility| it represents a 3-year effort by approximately 400 experts worldwide working under the auspices of 30 governments and 30 representatives of civil society. This briefing provides a summary of the report's findings. 9113,2008,3,3,Air pollution radiative forcing from specific emissions sectors at 2030,Reduction of short-lived air pollutants can contribute to mitigate global warming in the near-term with ancillary benefits to human health. However| the radiative forcings of short-lived air pollutants depend on the location and source type of the precursor emissions. We apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify near-future (2030 A1B) global annual mean radiative forcing by ozone (O(3)) and sulfate from six emissions sectors in seven geographic regions. At 2030 the net forcings from O3| sulfate| black and organic carbon| and indirect CH(4) effects for each emission sector are (in mWm(-2)) biomass burning| +95; domestic| +68; transportation| +67; industry| -131; and power| -224. Biomass burning emissions in East Asia and central and southern Africa| domestic biofuel emissions in East Asia| south Asia| and central and southern Africa| and transportation emissions in Europe and North America have large net positive forcings and are therefore attractive targets to counter global warming. Power and industry emissions from East Asia| south Asia| and north Africa and the Middle East have large net negative forcings. Therefore air quality control measures that affect these regional sectors require offsetting climate measures to avoid a warming impact. Linear relationships exist between O3 forcing and biomass burning and domestic biofuel CO precursor emissions independent of region with sensitivity of +0.2 mWm(-2)/TgCO. Similarly| linear relationships exist between sulfate forcing and SO(2) precursor emissions that depend upon region but are independent of sector with sensitivities ranging from -3 to -12 mWm(-2)/TgS. 1313,2008,4,4,Albedo measurements and optical sizing of single aerosol particles,Aerosols play an important role in global climate change by their interactions with incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation from the planetary surface. The climate effects of aerosols depend on their scattering and absorption properties. This article describes the development of an instrument (ASTER: Aerosol Scattering To Extinction Ratio) that simultaneously measures the scattering and extinction of single aerosol particles. ASTER uses a high-Q cavity to amplify the extinction signal and innovative optics to collect the scattered light. It can distinguish many partially absorbing particles from a few black ones even if the bulk absorption is the same. Optical sizing and single-scattering albedo measurements were made for laboratory-generated particles with diameters from about 300 nanometers to above one micrometer. Using this prototype instrument| changes in albedo for single particles of 20% or greater were detected by measurement of the scattering and extinction. Optical sizing of the individual particles to within similar to 50 nm was accomplished using the ratio of the forward scattered light to the total scattering. Initial measurements of laboratory air showed a mode of highly absorbing particles. This article reports design and early laboratory tests on ASTER. 8763,2008,2,4,Alien species in the Mediterranean Sea-which| when| where| why?,A critical evaluation of more than 2|200 publications| some dating back to the late 1800s| established the presence| and traced the spatio-temporal spread| of 558 alien metazoan species in the Mediterranean Sea. The majority of aliens in the eastern Mediterranean entered through the Suez Canal| whereas mariculture and shipping are powerful means of introduction in the northwestern Mediterranean and in the Adriatic Sea. Most aliens are thermophilic species. The possible causes for the epic scale of invasion in the Mediterranean Sea are discussed. 8988,2008,3,3,Am pollution from Spanish roads,In this study| we performed an assessment of the environmental impact caused by the use of Spanish roads from 2004 to 2006. Subsequently| through the application of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology| this impact was compared with the construction stage of roads| considering the following impact categories: global warming| formation of tropospheric ozone precursors and acidification. The results show the progressive increase of the emissions of the pollutants that cause global warming. Moreover| the importance of the environmental impact associated to the construction stage is reflected. 8869,2008,2,3,Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature,The Hadley Centre coupled climate-carbon cycle model (HadCM3LC) predicts loss of the Amazon rainforest in response to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this study| the atmospheric component of HadCM3LC is used to assess the role of simulated changes in mid-twenty-first century sea surface temperature (SST) in Amazon Basin climate change. When the full HadCM3LC SST anomalies (SSTAs) are used| the atmosphere model reproduces the Amazon Basin climate change exhibited by HadCM3LC| including much of the reduction in Amazon Basin rainfall. This rainfall change is shown to be the combined effect of SSTAs in both the tropical Atlantic and the Pacific| with roughly equal contributions from each basin. The greatest rainfall reduction occurs from May to October| outside of the mature South American monsoon (SAM) season. This dry season response is the combined effect of a more rapid warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to the south| and warm SSTAs in the tropical east Pacific. Conversely| a weak enhancement of mature SAM season rainfall in response to Atlantic SST change is suppressed by the atmospheric response to Pacific SST. This net wet season response is sufficient to prevent dry season soil moisture deficits from being recharged through the SAM season| leading to a perennial soil moisture reduction and an associated 30% reduction in annual Amazon Basin net primary productivity (NPP). A further 23% NPP reduction occurs in response to a 3.5 degrees C warmer air temperature associated with a global mean SST warming. 9006,2008,3,4,Amazon forest maintenance as a source of environmental services,Amazonian forest produces environmental services such as maintenance of biodiversity| water cycling and carbon stocks. These services have a much greater value to human society than do the timber| beef and other products that are obtained by destroying the forest. Yet institutional mechanisms are still lacking to transform the value of the standing forest into the foundation of an economy based on maintaining rather than destroying this ecosystem. Forest management for commodities such as timber and non-timber forest products faces severe limitations and inherent contradictions unless income is supplemented based on environmental services. Amazon forest is threatened by deforestation| logging| forest fires and climate change. Measures to avoid deforestation include repression through command and control| creation of protected areas| and reformulation of infrastructure decisions and development policies. An economy primarily based on the value of environmental services is essential for long-term maintenance of the forest. Much progress has been made in the decades since I first proposed such a transition| but many issues also remain unresolved. These include theoretical issues regarding accounting procedures| improved quantification of the services and of the benefits of different policy options| and effective uses of the funds generated in ways that maintain both the forest and the human population. 8466,2008,2,4,Amazonian biomass burning-derived acid and nutrient deposition in the north Andean montane forest of Ecuador,We explored the influence of biomass burning in Amazonia and northeastern Latin America on N| C| P| S| K| Ca| Mg| Al| Mn| and Zn cycles of an Andean montane forest in south Ecuador exposed to the Amazon basin between May 1998 and April 2003. We assessed the response of the element budget of three microcatchments (8 - 13 ha) to the variations in atmospheric deposition between the intensive burning season and outside the burning season in Amazonia. There were significantly elevated H| N| and Mn depositions during biomass burning. Elevated H deposition during biomass burning caused elevated base metal loss from the canopy and the organic horizon and deteriorated already low base metal supply of the vegetation. N was only retained during biomass burning but not during nonfire conditions when deposition was much smaller. We conclude that biomass burning-related aerosol emissions in Amazonia are large enough to substantially increase element deposition at the western rim of Amazonia. Particularly the related increase of acid deposition impoverishes already base metal scarce ecosystems. As biomass burning is most intense during El Nino situations| a shortened El Nino - Southern Oscillation cycle because of global warming likely enhances the acid deposition at our study forest. 8826,2008,2,4,Ambient temperature effects on photo induced gonadal cycles and lehormonal secretion patterns in Great Tits from three different breeding latitudes,The present study determines how populations of Great Tits (Parus major) breeding in southern| mid and northern European latitudes have adjusted their reproductive endocrinology to differences in the ambient temperature during the gonadal cycle. A study based on long-term breeding data| using the Colwell predictability model| showed that the start of the breeding season has a high predictability (approximate to 0.8-0.9) at all latitudes| and that the environmental information factor (I(e)) progressively decreased from mid Italy (I(e)>4) to northern Finland (I(e)<1). The results indicate that integration of supplementary information| such as ambient temperature| with photoperiodic initial predictive information (day length)| becomes progressively more important in maintaining the predictability of the breeding season with decreasing latitude. This hypothesis was verified by exposing photosensitive Great Tits from northern Norway| southern Sweden and northern Italy to sub-maximal photo-stimulatory day lengths (13L:11D) under two different ambient temperature regimes (+4 degrees C and +20 degrees C). Changes in testicular size| plasma levels of LH and testosterone were measured. The main results were: (1) Initial testicular growth rate| as well as LH secretion| was affected by temperature in the Italian| but not in birds from the two Scandinavian populations. (2) Maximum testicular size| maximum LH and testosterone levels were maintained for a progressively shorter period of time with increasing latitude| regardless of whether the birds were kept on a low or a high ambient temperature. (3) In birds from all latitudes| the development of photorefractoriness| as indicated by testicular regression and a decrease in plasma levels of LH and testosterone| started much earlier (with the exception for LH Great Tits from northern Scandinavia) when kept on +20 degrees C than when kept on +4 degrees C. The prolonging effects of a low temperature was more pronounced in Mediterranean birds| than in birds from Scandinavia| and more pronounced in Great Tits from southern Scandinavia than in Great Tits from northern Scandinavia. Ecological implications of the results are discussed| as well as possible impact of global warming on the breeding success of European Great Tits from different breeding latitudes. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 9057,2008,2,4,Ambient temperature predicts sex ratios and male longevity,The theory that natural selection has conserved mechanisms by which women subjected to environmental stressors abort frail male fetuses implies that climate change may affect sex ratio at birth and male longevity. Using time series methods| we find that cold ambient temperatures during gestation predict lower secondary sex ratios and longer life span of males in annual birth cohorts composed of Danes| Finns| Norwegians| and Swedes born between 1878 (earliest year with complete life tables) and 1914 (last birth cohort for which male life span can be estimated). We conclude that ambient temperature affects the characteristics of human populations by influencing who survives gestation| a heretofore unrecognized effect of climate on humanity. 8838,2008,3,4,Ammonia in low capacity refrigeration and heat pump systems,Ammonia has been used as refrigerant in large vapour compression systems continuously since the beginning of the era of refrigeration. In small systems| it has hardly been used at all since the introduction of the halogenated hydrocarbons around 1930. Lately| with the search for alternatives with less influence on global warming| the use of ammonia in small systems has come into focus again. In the present paper| the work done at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) with the aim of developing a prototype of a domestic water to water heat pump with a heating capacity of 9 kW is presented. it has been shown that such a system can be designed to operate with about 100 g of ammonia. Crucial problems in the development of the direct expansion system were to arrange for oil return| and to achieve good heat transfer in the evaporator. These problems were solved by use of an oil which is soluble in ammonia. The main obstacle for introducing this technology commercially is the limited supply of components. Particularly| there are no hermetic or semi-hermetic compressors for ammonia available in this size range. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 8482,2008,3,4,Ammonium nitrate fertiliser production based on biomass - Environmental effects from a life cycle perspective,Ammonium nitrate and calcium ammonium nitrate are the most commonly used straight nitrogen fertilisers in Europe| accounting for 43% of the total nitrogen used for fertilisers. They are both produced in a similar way; carbonate can be added as a last step to produce calcium ammonium nitrate. The environmental impact| fossil energy input and land use from using gasified biomass (cereal straw and short rotation willow (Salix) coppice) as feedstock in ammonium nitrate production were studied in a cradle-to-gate evaluation using life cycle assessment methodology. The global warming potential in the biomass systems was only 22-30% of the impact from conventional production using natural gas. The eutrophication potential was higher for the biomass systems due to nutrient leaching during cultivation| while the acidification was about the same in all systems. The primary fossil energy use was calculated to be 1.45 and 1.37 MJ/kg nitrogen for Salix and straw| respectively| compared to 35.14 MJ for natural gas. The biomass production was assumed to be self-supporting with nutrients by returning part of the ammonium nitrate produced together with the ash from the gasification. For the production of nitrogen from Salix| it was calculated that 3914 kg of nitrogen can be produced every year from 1 ha| after that 1.6% of the produced nitrogen has been returned to the Salix production. From wheat straw| 1615 kg of nitrogen call be produced annually from I ha| after that 0.6% of the nitrogen has been returned. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8681,2008,2,3,An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms,This paper explores how South American farmers adapt to climate by changing crops. We develop a multinomial logit model of farmer's choice of crops. Estimating the model across 949 farmers in seven countries| we find that both temperature and precipitation affect the crops that South American farmers choose. Farmers choose fruits and vegetables in warmer locations and wheat and potatoes in cooler locations. Farms in wetter locations are more likely to grow rice| fruits| potatoes| and squash and in dryer locations maize and wheat. Global warming will cause South American farmers to switch away from maize| wheat| and potatoes towards squash| fruits and vegetables. Predictions of the impact of climate change on net revenue must reflect not only changes in yields per crop but also crop switching. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9219,2008,2,4,An Analysis of Interdecadal Variations of the Asian-African Summer Monsoon,The response of the Asian-African summer monsoon (AASM) to the fast global warming in the 1980s is studied based oil several datasets| which span a long time period of nearly 100 yr| with two special periods 1980-1985 and 1990-1995 being focused on. Wavelet analyses are employed to explore the interdecadal variations of the AASM. It is found that after the mid-1980s| the global annual mean surface temperature rises more significantly and extensively over most parts of the African Continent| north of the Indian Ocean| and the Eurasian Continent excluding the Tibetan Plateau. Correspondingly| the global precipitation pattern alters with increased rainfall seen over the Sahel and North China in 1990-1995| though it is not recovered to the level of the rainy period before the mid-1960s. Changes of monsoonal circulations between the pre- and post-1980s periods display that| after the fast global warming of the 1980s| the African summer monsoon intensifies distinctly| the Indian summer monsoon weakens a little bit| and the East Asian summer monsoon remains almost unchanged. The summer precipitation over the Asian-African Monsoon Belt (AAMB) does not change in phase coherently with the variations of the monsoonal circulations. Wavelet analyses of the land-sea thermal contrast and precipitation over North China and the Sahel indicate that interdecadal signals are dominant and in positive phases in the 1960s| leading to an overall enhanced interdecadal variation of the AASM| although the 1960s witnesses a global cooling. In the 1980s however| in the context of a fast global warming| interdecadal signals are in opposite phases| and they counteract with each other| leading to a weakened interdecadal variation of the AASM. After the mid-1960s| the AASM weakened remarkably| whereas after the mid-1980s| the AASM as a whole did not strengthen uniformly and synchronously| because it is found that the interannual variations of the AASM in the 1980s are stronger than those in the 1960s| and they superimposed on the counteracting interdecadal signals| causing different regions of the AAMB behaving differently. Therefore| the response of the AASM to the accelerated global warming post the mid-1980s is not simply out-of-phase with that after the mid-1960s; it may involve more complicated multiscale physical elements. 8494,2008,4,4,An approach to research the topology of Chinese temperature sequence based on complex network,To analyze the dynamics of the temperature data| using homogenous partition of coarse graining process| the series of Chinese daily main temperature from 1961 to 2002 is transformed into symbolic sequences consisting of 5 characters \{ R| r| e| d| D\}. The vertices of the temperature fluctuation network is 125 3-symbol strings (i.e.| 125 fluctuation patterns in durations of 4 days)| linked in the network's topology by time sequence. It contains Integrated information about interconnections and interactions between fluctuation patterns of temperature in network topology. Random fluctuant network and chaos fluctuant network by using random sequence and chaos sequence of Lorenz system were built. We calculated the dynamical statistics of the degrees and the distribution of degrees| clustering coefficient and the shortest path length| and compared the difference of these three sequences from the view point of network. The result is that. The main vertices of temperature fluctuant network generally contain the 3 characters R| r and e| and corresponding the background of global warming| the feature of temperature fluctuation is mainly ascending. On all accounts| the temperature fluctuant network is similar with chaos network in its dynamical statistics| but is markedly different from random network| which reflects the complexity of temperature fluctuation. And besides| some vertices in temperature fluctuant network have high betweenness centrality ( BC)| 4% of vertices bear 71.9% of betweenness centrality of networks I these vertices of importance in topological statistics are helpful to understanding the inherent law and information transmission. The vertices' BC in chaos network is similar with that of the temperature network| but vertices in random network almost have identical betweenness centrality. As a result| the patterns of temperature fluctuation corresponding to the process of weather change have similar property with chaos rather than the random fluctuation process. 8581,2008,4,4,An assessment of the primary sources of spread of global warming estimates from coupled atmosphere-ocean models,Climate feedback analysis constitutes a useful framework for comparing the global mean surface temperature responses to an external forcing predicted by general circulation models (GCMs). Nevertheless| the contributions of the different radiative feedbacks to global warming (in equilibrium or transient conditions) and their comparison with the contribution of other processes (e.g.| the ocean heat uptake) have not been quantified explicitly. Here these contributions from the classical feedback analysis framework are defined and quantified for an ensemble of 12 third Phase Of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)/Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs. In transient simulations| the multimodel mean contributions to global warming associated with the combined water vapor-lapse-rate feedback| cloud feedback| and ocean heat uptake are comparable. However| intermodel differences in cloud feedbacks constitute by far the most primary source of spread of both equilibrium and transient climate responses simulated by GCMs. The spread associated with intermodel differences in Cloud feedbacks appears to be roughly 3 times larger than that associated either with the combined water vapor-lapse-rate feedback| the ocean heat uptake| or the radiative forcing. 9207,2008,3,3,An empirical analysis of urban form| transport| and global warming,Does urban form affect travel choices and thus CO2 emissions by individuals? If this is the case| then urban form and policies that influence it deserve serious attention in the context of long-term climate policy. To address this issue. we examine the impact of urban density on commuting behavior| and the consequences for CO2 emissions. The empirical investigation is based on an instrumental variable approach (IV)| so as to take account of endogeneity of residence location. We decompose travel demand into components related to modal split and commuting distance by each mode. 9014,2008,3,2,An evaluation of the current radiative forcing benefit of the Montreal Protocol at the high-Alpine site Jungfraujoch,A combination of reconstructed histories| long-term time series and recent quasi-continuous observations of non-CO2 greenhouse gases at the high-Alpine site Jungfraujoch is used to assess their current global radiative forcing budget and the influence of regulations due to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in terms of climate change. Extrapolated atmospheric greenhouse gases trends from 1989 assuming a business-as-usualscenario| i.e. no Montreal Protocol restriction| are presented and compared to the observations. The largest differences between hypothetical business-as-usual mixing ratios and current atmospheric observations over the last 16 years were found for chlorinated species| in particular methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) at 167 to 203 ppt and chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) at 121 to 254 ppt. These prevented increases were used to estimate the effects of their restrictions on the radiative forcing budget. The net direct effect due to the Montreal Protocol regulations reduces global warming and offsets about 14 to 30% of the positive greenhouse effect related to the major greenhouse gases CO2| CH4| N2O and also SF6| and about 12 to 22% of the hypothetical current radiative forcing increase without Montreal Protocol restrictions. Thus| the Montreal Protocol succeeded not only in reducing the atmospheric chlorine content in the atmosphere but also dampened global warming. Nevertheless| the Montreal Protocol controlled species still add to global warming. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8648,2008,3,3,An experimental evaluation of the transcritical CO2 refrigerator performances using an internal heat exchanger,The classical substances as hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) used as working fluids in the vapour compression plants have to be replaced by new substances because of their ozone depletion potential and their greenhouse effect. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is non-toxic| non-flammable| has zero ozone depletion potential and negligible global warming potential as refrigerant. Referring to a transcritical CO2 cycle working as a classical "split-system" to cool air in residential applications| the aim of this paper is the evaluation of the energy performances using an internal heat exchanger. The experimental plant employs a semi-hermetic compressor| plate-finned tube type heat exchangers| a back pressure valve electronically controlled and an expansion valve. Besides it is possible to control the flash gas produced in the liquid receiver thanks to another semi-hermetic compressor linked to an inverter. An increase of the coefficient of performance has been found using the internal heat exchanger. The comparison of the coefficients of performance of two cycles| working with and without the internal heat exchanger| is discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 8924,2008,3,4,An integrated greenhouse gas assessment of an alternative to slash-and-burn agriculture in eastern Amazonia,Fires set for slash-and-burn agriculture contribute to the current unsustainable accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases| and they also deplete the soil of essential nutrients| which compromises agricultural sustainability at local scales. Integrated assessments of greenhouse gas emissions have compared intensive cropping systems in industrialized countries| but such assessments have not been applied to common cropping systems of smallholder farmers in developing countries. We report an integrated assessment of greenhouse gas emissions in slash-and-burn agriculture and an alternative chop-and-mulch system in the Amazon Basin. The soil consumed atmospheric methane (CH4) under slash-and-burn treatment and became a net emitter of CH4 to the atmosphere under the mulch treatment. Mulching also caused about a 50% increase in soil emissions of nitric oxide and nitrous oxide and required greater use of fertilizer and fuel for farm machinery. Despite these significantly higher emissions of greenhouse gases during the cropping phase under the alternative chop-and-mulch system| calculated pyrogenic emissions in the slash-and-burn system were much larger| especially for CH4. The global warming potential CO2-equivalent emissions calculated for the entire crop cycles were at least five times lower in chop-and-mulch compared with slash-and-burn. The crop yields were similar for the two systems. While economic and logistical considerations remain to be worked out for alternatives to slash-and-burn| these results demonstrate a potential 'win-win' strategy for maintaining soil fertility and reducing net greenhouse gas emissions| thus simultaneously contributing to sustainability at both spatial scales. 9003,2008,2,4,An integrated study of economic effects of and vulnerabilities to global warming on the Barents Sea cod fisheries,The Barents Sea area is characterised by a highly fluctuating physical environment causing substantial variations in the ecosystems and fisheries depending upon this. Simulations assuming different management regimes have been carried out to study how physical and biological effects of global warming influence the Barents Sea cod fisheries. A regional| high-resolution representation of the B2 world region (OECD90) scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was used to calculate water temperatures and plankton biomasses by hydrodynamic modelling. These results were included in simulations performed by a multi-fleet| multi-species model| by which a fully integrated model linking to the global circulation model to the Barents Sea fisheries through a regional downscaling to the Barents Sea area is constructed. One factor of particular importance for the natural annual biological variations is the occasional inflow of young herring into the Barents Sea area. The herring inflow is difficult to predict and links to dynamical systems outside the Barents Sea area| complex recruitment mechanisms and oceanographic conditions. These processes are in the study represented by a stochastic representation of herring inflow based on historical observations. According to the performed simulations the biomass fluctuations may slightly increase over the next 25 years| possibly caused by changes in temperature patterns. Six different management regimes have been included in the study and the results support earlier studies claiming that the choice of management regime potentially has a greater importance for biological and economic performance in the Barents Sea fisheries than impacts which derive from global warming over the next 25 years. A basic assumption for this conclusion is however that the Barents Sea ecosystem essentially preserves its structure and composition of today. Possible| unpredictable significant shifts in the ecosystem structure are not considered. 1052,2008,2,4,An inverse-modelling approach to assess the impacts of climate change in the Seyhan River basin| Turkey,One of file most significant anticipated consequences of global climate change is the change in Frequency of hydrological extremes. Predictions of climate change impacts oil the regime of hydrological extremes have traditionally been conducted by a top-down approach that involves a high degree of uncertainty associated with the temporal and spatial characteristics of general circulation model (GCM) Outputs and the choice of downscaling technique. This Study uses the inverse approach to model hydrological risk and Vulnerability to changing climate conditions in the Seyhan River basin| Turkey. With close collaboration with the end users| the approach first identifies critical hydrological exposures that may lead to local failures in the Seyhan River basin. The Hydro-BEAM hydrological model is used to inversely transform the main hydrological exposures| such as floods and droughts| into corresponding meteorological conditions. The frequency of critical meteorological conditions is investigated under present and future climate scenarios by means of a weather generator based oil the improved K-nearest neighbour algorithm| The weather generator| linked with the Output of GCMS in the last step of the proposed methodology| allows for the creation of all ensemble of scenarios and easy Updating when improved GCM Outputs become available. Two main conclusions were drawn from the application of the inverse approach to the Seyhan River basin. First| floods of 100-| 200- and 300-year return periods under present conditions will have 102-| 293- and 1370-year return periods under the future conditions; that is| critical flood events will occur much less frequently under the changing climate conditions. Second| the drought return period will change from 5.3 years under present conditions to 2.0 years tinder the future conditions that is| critical drought events will occur Much more frequently under the changing climate conditions. 1324,2008,2,4,Analysis and modelling of the interactive effects of temperature and light on phytoplankton growth and relevance for the spring bloom,Global climate change alters the relationship between temperature and light in aquatic ecosystems| which is expected to affect the success of different phytoplankton species. To examine this| the interactions between temperature| photoperiod and light exposure (LE) (integral daily light supply) on specific growth rates were analysed for Limnothrix redekei| Planktothrix agardhii (cyanobacteria)| Nitzschia acicularis and Stephanodiscus minutulus (diatoms). A model of factor interactions was developed based on new (P. agardhii and St. minutulus) and previously published laboratory studies. It describes the measured data with high precision. Temperature and photoperiod affect the parameters of the light-growth response curve differently| but these effects are the same for all species. The link between functions for temperature and photoperiod is more species-specific. Using meteorological data| the model developed here was used to study the interplay of these factors during a spring bloom in Lake Muggelsee (Berlin). It was found that while all three factors influenced phytoplankton growth| temperature and photoperiod were more important than LE. Both the intensities of the factors and the interactions between them influenced each species to a different degree. The results may help improve our understanding and ability to predict shifts in phytoplankton communities caused by weather patterns and climate change. 1231,2008,4,3,Analysis of energy use in a sample of Chinese villages,This paper summarises the methodology and results of work involved in the investigation of energy demand in six Chinese villages included in the SUCCESS Project. The procedures used to collect data associated with local energy demand are explained and the approach to data analysis is explained. Results are provided in terms for delivered energy consumption| as an indicator of energy demand; primary energy consumption| as an indicator of energy resource depletion; and carbon dioxide emissions| as an indicator of global climate change. Similarities and differences between results for this sample of villages are considered. The important causes of differences in results are investigated. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8766,2008,4,4,Analysis of extreme events in China's temperature in recent so years using detecting method based on median,Based on daily and monthly temperature records from 1957 to 2001 of China|using climate extreme detecting method based on average and median|we have analyzed the transition and distribution of frequency of temperature extremes. The results indicate that while the average number of extreme high temperature events per year has been increased in the last 50 years|the extreme low temperature events decreased. Except for some stations located in southwest China|the frequency of extreme low temperature events in most regions over China decreased. The spatial pattern of transition of frequency of extreme high temperature events showed decreased in southeast coastal regions and increase in inland regions. 9125,2008,3,4,Analysis of the insulation characteristics of c-C(4)F(8)/CO(2) gas mixtures by the Monte Carlo method,This paper analyses the insulation characteristics of c-C(4)F(8)/CO(2) gas mixtures using the Monte Carlo method with the null-collision technique and studies the possibility of applying that in the gas insulation of power equipment. The density-normalized effective ionization coefficient (alpha-eta)/N for c-C(4)F(8)/CO(2) gas mixtures has been calculated using a sample of a pulsed Townsend discharge. The overall density-reduced electric field strength (E/N) could be varied between 150 and 450 Td (1 Td = 10(-17) Vcm(2))| while the c-C(4)F(8) content in the gas mixtures is varied over the range 0-100%. From the variation curve of (alpha-eta)/N with the c-C(4)F(8) mixture ratio k| the limiting field (E/N)(lim) of the gas mixture at different gas contents is determined. The required gas pressure ratios comparable to the insulation property of SF(6) and the global warming potential (GWP) at this gas pressure were also investigated. It is found that the limiting field (E/N) lim of the c-C(4)F(8)/CO(2) gas mixtures is higher than that of SF(6)/CO(2) gas mixtures| and the GWP of the former is significantly lower than that of the latter. 8602,2008,2,4,Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data,In this study| using 104 years ( 1901 - 2004) of high resolution daily gridded rainfall data| variability and long-term trends of extreme rainfall events over central India have been examined. Frequency of extreme rainfall events shows significant inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in addition to a statistically significant long term trend of 6% per decade. Detailed analysis shows that inter-annual| inter-decadal and long-term trends of extreme rainfall events are modulated by the SST variations over the tropical Indian Ocean. The present study supports the hypothesis that the increasing trend of extreme rainfall events in the last five decades could be associated with the increasing trend of sea surface temperatures and surface latent heat flux over the tropical Indian Ocean. In the global warming scenario| the coherent relationship between Indian Ocean SST and extreme rainfall events suggests an increase in the risk of major floods over central India. 1236,2008,4,4,Analytical approaches to the delta-Eddington model of the radiative transfer through vertically inhomogeneous optical depths,Analytical approaches have been developed for one-dimensional monochromatic delta-Eddington radiative transfer equation through a vertically inhomogeneous medium. They are based on the solution of the Riccati equation that arises from the decoupling of the two-stream radiances| and seek to approximate the exponent functions in the solution as opposed to finding the solution as a whole. Depending on the case| Green-Liouville approximation or other techniques presented in this paper are utilized for finding these exponents. Though developed for atmospheric radiative transfer problems applicable to the global climate change modelling| and for non-invasive medical applications on tissue-light interactions| the techniques considered here are quiet general in nature. Hence| they can also be useful in other boundary value problems of the diffusion type that involve linear second order ordinary differential equations with variable coefficients. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 8597,2008,4,4,Analyzing Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using Remote Sensing and GIS in Rize| North-East Turkey,Mapping land use/land cover (LULC) changes at regional scales is essential for a wide range of applications| including landslide| erosion| land planning| global warming etc. LULC alterations (based especially on human activities)| negatively effect the patterns of climate| the patterns of natural hazard and socio-economic dynamics in global and local scale. In this study| LULC changes are investigated by using of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in Rize| North-East Turkey. For this purpose| firstly supervised classification technique is applied to Landsat images acquired in 1976 and 2000. Image Classification of six reflective bands of two Landsat images is carried out by using maximum likelihood method with the aid of ground truth data obtained from aerial images dated 1973 and 2002. The second part focused on land use land cover changes by using change detection comparison (pixel by pixel). In third part of the study| the land cover changes are analyzed according to the topographic structure (slope and altitude) by using GIS functions. The results indicate that severe land cover changes have occurred in agricultural (36.2%) (especially in tea gardens)| urban (117%)| pasture (-72.8%) and forestry (-12.8%) areas has been experienced in the region between 1976 and 2000. It was seen that the LULC changes were mostly occurred in coastal areas and in areas having low slope values. 8787,2008,2,4,Analyzing the market position of fish species subject to the impact of long-term changes: a case study of French fisheries in the Bay of Biscay,Market position and its evolution were analysed in nine key fish and cephalopod species subject to long-term changes| using the Bay of Biscay fisheries as a case study. Although such long term changes have already been documented| and in some cases shown to be related to the impacts of fishing| changes in the physical environment| or both| relatively little work has been devoted to their potential consequences in economic terms. The nature and extent of these consequences was determined in the present study by looking at the composition of the affected fish production| and the status of different fish products on the markets. We propose a methodology to characterize market position for this set of nine species. The selected species represent a significant part of the gross turnover of French fishing fleets operating in the bay. These species were characterized in terms of their potential sensitivity to fishing and changes in environmental conditions due to global warming. We separated species potentially positively (Engraulis encrasicolus and Lophius budegassa) and negatively affected (Pollachius pollachius and Lophius piscatorius) by warming. Evolution of the value of production of the nine species was then depicted using analysis of macro-economic index (production and potential consumption) and price indices. This revealed the relatively high sensitivity of domestic production to the market crisis that occurred in France in the early 1990s| compared to imported and exported products. The relative position of individual species| with respect to the market and its evolution between 1990 and 2005| was analyzed by multi-factorial analysis. Results derived from the analysis clearly distinguish two groups of species| the first characterized by higher prices (monkfish| Nephrops| sole| seabass) and the second by larger volumes available on the French market (pollack| hake| anchovy| sardine| cuttlefish). We conclude that a major part (69 to 87%) of the gross turnover associated with catches of these fish species in the Bay of Biscay remains potentially unaffected by long-term changes related to climate. 8463,2008,2,4,Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context,Over the last 40 years| perceptible advances in dates of flowering stages have been observed in apple and pear trees growing in three cropping areas in France and. one in Switzerland. The time-course variation of dates of flowering stages was established for eight chronological sequences. Our aim was to propose a statistical modelling framework for such sequences with the objective of characterizing the relationship between flowering advances in fruit trees and global warming. After an exploratory analysis| change-point models were applied to multivariate and univariate sequences. The results clearly support the occurrence of a significant abrupt change in the time-course variation of flowering dates at the end of the 1980s toward more frequent early dates| the most probable change instant being between 1988 and 1989. The coincidence between this abrupt change in phenological variations and marked increases in temperature recorded particularly in France at the end of the 1980s led us to consider the flowering advances in apple and pear trees as impacts of global warming. The suddenness in the response to global warming could be explained by changes in rates for completion of chilling and heat requirements| successively essential to the development of floral primordia. within buds. In all cropping areas| annual mean temperatures had suddenly increased since 1988 (1.1-1.3 degrees C)| but including noticeable monthly differences. Particularly| warming was clearly more pronounced in February and March (mean temperature increases of 1.6 degrees C) corresponding to the main period of heat requirements| than in November and December (0.8 degrees C) corresponding to the main period of chilling requirements. So marked temperature increases during the heat phase would have suddenly resulted in more frequent years with relatively short duration for completion of the heat requirements and consequently more frequent early flowering years| despite some years with relatively long duration of chilling requirements. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8444,2008,2,3,Anatomizing the Ocean's Role in ENSO Changes under Global Warming,A revisit on observations shows that the tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability| after removing both the long-term trend and decadal variation of the background climate| has been enhanced by as much as 50% during the past 50 yr. This is inconsistent with the changes in the equatorial atmosphere| which shows a slowdown of the zonal Walker circulation and tends to stabilize the tropical coupling system. The ocean role is highlighted in this paper. The enhanced ENSO variability is attributed to the strengthened equatorial thermocline that acts as a destabilizing factor of the tropical coupling system. To quantify the dynamic effect of the ocean on the ENSO variability under the global warming| ensemble experiments are performed using a coupled climate model [Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model ( FOAM)]| following the "1pctto2x" scenario defined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. Term balance analyses on the temperature variability equation show that the anomalous upwelling of the mean vertical temperature gradient (referred as the "local term") in the eastern equatorial Pacific is the most important destabilizing factor to the temperature variabilities. The magnitude of local term and its change are controlled by its two components: the mean vertical temperature gradient (T) over bar (z) and the "virtual vertical heat flux" -w'T'. The former can be viewed as the background of the latter and these two components are positively correlated. A stronger (T) over bar (z) is usually associated with a bigger upward heat flux -w'T'| which implies a bigger impact of thermocline depth variations on SST. The (T) over bar (z) is first enhanced during the transient stage of the global warming with a 1% yr(-1) increase of CO(2)| and then reduced during the equilibrium stage with a fixed doubled CO(2). This turnaround in (T) over bar (z) determines the turnaround of ENSO variability in the entire global warming period. 1264,2008,2,4,Animal migration: An endangered phenomenon?,Animal migration is an endangered phenomenon in which the migratory animals face a growing array of threats| including habitat destruction| overexploitation| disease| and global climate change. The animal migration also causes major environmental and economic problems given the important ecosystem services these species provide. Many migratory animals provide ecosystem services. 8615,2008,2,3,Antarctic ice-sheet melting provides negative feedbacks on future climate warming,We show by using a three-dimensional climate model| which includes a comprehensive representation of polar ice sheets| that on centennial to millennial time scales Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) can melt and moderate warming in the Southern Hemisphere| by up to 10 degrees C regionally| in a 4 x CO(2) scenario. This behaviour stems from the formation of a cold halocline in the Southern Ocean| which limits sea-ice cover retreat under global warming and increases surface albedo| reducing local surface warming. Furthermore| we show that AIS melting| by decreasing Antarctic Bottom Water formation| restrains the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation| which is a new illustration of the effect of the bi-polar oceanic seesaw. Consequently| it appears that AIS melting strongly interacts with climate and ocean circulation globally. It is therefore necessary to account for this coupling in future climate and sea-level rise scenarios. 1056,2008,5,4,Antarctica and the Southern ocean: paleoclimatology of the deep freeze,The present study consists of a review of the climatic evolution of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean realms since the first massive ice sheet build-up in Antarctica during the Cenozoic. It elucidates the strong link between the cryosphere| oceans and atmosphere. The above aspects are built on a wealth of proxy data from different archives and from across the globe. However| as the studies indicate| there are major limitations as well that hamper a proper understanding of the forcing mechanisms behind the long-term as well as abrupt climate changes. The most serious handicap is the lack of synchronization of records from various archives. Some critical areas such as the Southern Ocean remain grossly under sampled. 8741,2008,3,4,Application of aeration sand filling| squeeze balance control and synchronised pattern drawing to flaskless moulding process,In recent years| global warming and environmental deterioration problems have drawn public attention. There is an ever increasing demand for production equipments in foundries that are more human friendly and environmentally cleaner. To meet such needs| a new type green sand moulding machine employing 'aeration' sand filling process has been developed. In order to make further improvements in moulding performance| new technologies| squeeze balance control and synchronised cope and drag pattern drawing technology| applied in squeezing and mould stripping process of the flaskless moulding equipment has been developed. Adoption of the squeeze balance control system achieves uniform mould strength and prevents distortion of pattern plates by automatically controlling the squeeze pressure applied to the cope and drag moulds in the squeeze process. This optimises the squeeze pressure according to the shape of the pattern. In this study the effectiveness of these technologies was proved by executing performance tests with an actual machine. 9209,2008,4,4,Application of geospatial technologies for environmental impact assessment: an Indian Scenario,Geospatial technology is an essential component of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process| as environmental resources are directly affected by changes in the shape and extent of the proposed disturbance. With the use of spatial techniques like remote sensing| Geographical Information Systems| and Global Positioning Systems| EIA has enhanced substantial viewing| movement| query| and even map-making capabilities. However| one of the main challenges is to have access to the most up-to-date and accurate geospatial data and interpretations. With an emphasis on using geospatial data in particular| the value of the information resource is far higher than is generally available with text and numeric information. This paper focuses on discussing the application of geospatial tools in environmental monitoring and the effective analysis of the natural resources for developmental planning| policy formulation| and decision-making. Several specific relevant applications of geospatial tools to integrate EIA are presented in the context of an Indian scenario. Applications have included monitoring of natural resources (air| water| land| etc.)| ground-level ozone| soil erosion| study of sea-level rise due to global warming| change-detection studies| delineation of ecologically sensitive areas using digital-image analysis and Geographic Information Systems. This study focuses on the possibility of using a proposed spatial-decision-support system to conduct EIA| which should make it possible to upload| evaluate| maintain| and report field and analytical data that have been stored in a variety of formats. 1122,2008,3,2,Application of strategies for sanitation management in wastewater treatment plants in order to control/reduce greenhouse gas emissions,Greenhouse gases (GHG)| basically methane (CH4)| carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O)| occur at atmospheric concentrations of ppbv to ppmv under natural conditions. GHG have long mean lifetimes and are an important factor for the mean temperature of the Earth. However| increasing anthropogenic emissions could produce a scenario of progressive and cumulative effects over time| causing a potential "global climate change". Biological degradation of the organic matter present in wastewater is considered one of the anthropogenic sources of GHG. In this study| GHG emissions for the period 1990-2027 were estimated considering the sanitation process and the official domestic wastewater treatment startup schedule approved for the Metropolitan Region (MR) of Santiago| Chile. The methodology considers selected models proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and some others published by different authors; these were modified according to national conditions and different sanitation and temporal scenarios. For the end of the modeled period (2027)| results show emissions of about 65 Tg CO2 equiv./year (as global warming potential)| which represent around 50% of national emissions. These values could be reduced if certain sanitation management strategies were introduced in the environmental management by the sanitation company| in charge of wastewater treatment. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 8700,2008,2,4,Application of the roadbed cooling approach in Qinghai-Tibet railway engineering,The Qinghai-Tibet Railway goes through 550 kin of permafrost| half of which is classified as "warm" permafrost with a mean annual ground temperature ranging from 0 to - 1 degrees C. The Qinghai-Tibet Railway is a long-term plan. In order to maintain its normal operation| climatic changes over the next 50 to 100 years need to be considered. The passive method of simply increasing the thermal resistance by raising embankment height and using insulating materials has proven ineffective on "warm" permafrost and therefore cannot be used in the construction of Qinghai-Tibet Railway in "warm" and ice-rich permafrost area. To deal with the "warm" nature of the plateau permafrost and global warming| a series of proactive roadbed-cooling methods were employed| which include solar radiation control using shading boards| heat convection control using air ducts| thermosyphons| and air-cooled embankments| and finally heat conduction control using "thermal semi-conductor" materials. A proper combination of these measures can enhance the cooling effect. All these methods can be used to lower the ground temperature and to help stabilize the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. Especially| the air-cooled embankments have the advantages of high efficiency| case of installation| environmental friendliness| and relative low cost. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V. 1187,2008,4,4,Applying fluvial geomorphology to river channel management: Background for progress towards a palaeohydrology protocol,Significant developments have been achieved in applicable and applied fluvial geomorphology as shown in publications of the last three decades| analyzed as the basis for using results of studies of environmental change as a basis for management. The range of types of publications and of activities are more pertinent to river channel management as a result of concern with sustainability| global climate change| environmental ethics| ecosystem health concepts and public participation. Possible applications| with particular reference to river channel changes| include those concerned with form and process| assessment of channel change| urbanization| channelization| extractive industries| impact of engineering works| historical changes in land use| and restoration with specific examples illustrated in Table 1. In order to achieve general significance for fluvial geomorphology| more theory and extension by modelling methods is needed| and examples related to morphology and process characteristics| integrated approaches| and changes of the fluvial system are collected in Table 2. The ways in which potential applications are communicated to decision-makers range from applicable outputs including publications ranging from review papers| book chapters| and books| to applied outputs which include interdisciplinary problem solving| educational outreach| and direct involvement| with examples summarized in Table 3. On the basis of results gained from investigations covering periods longer than continuous records| a protocol embracing palaeohydro logical inputs for application to river channel management is illustrated and developed as a synopsis version (Table 4)| demonstrating how conclusions from geomorphological research can be expressed in a format which can be considered by managers. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1197,2008,4,3,Applying stable isotope probing of phospholipid fatty acids and rRNA in a Chinese rice field to study activity and composition of the methanotrophic bacterial communities in situ,Methanotrophs in the rhizosphere play an important role in global climate change since they attenuate methane emission from rice field ecosystems into the atmosphere. Most of the CH4 is emitted via transport through the plant gas vascular system. We used this transport for stable isotope probing ( SIP) of the methanotrophs in the rhizosphere under field conditions and pulse-labelled rice plants in a Chinese rice field with CH4 ( 99% C-13) for 7 days. The rate of (CH4)-C-13 loss rate during C-13 application was comparable to the CH4 oxidation rate measured by the difluoromethane inhibition technique. The methanotrophic communities on the roots and in the rhizospheric soil were analyzed by terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP)| cloning and sequencing of the particulate methane monooxygenase ( pmoA) gene. Populations of type I methanotrophs were larger than those of type II. Both methane oxidation rates and composition of methanotrophic communities suggested that there was little difference between urea-fertilized and unfertilized fields. SIP of phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA-SIP) and rRNA ( RNA-SIP) were used to analyze the metabolically active methanotrophic community in rhizospheric soil. PLFA of type I compared with type II methanotrophs was labelled more strongly with C-13| reaching a maximum of 6.8 atom-%. T-RFLP analysis and cloning/sequencing of 16S rRNA genes showed that methanotrophs| especially of type I| were slightly enriched in the 'heavy' fractions. Our results indicate that CH4 oxidation in the rice rhizosphere under in situ conditions is mainly due to type I methanotrophs. 8876,2008,3,3,Approach for energy saving and pollution reducing by fueling diesel engines with emulsified biosolution/biodiesel/diesel blends,The developments of both biodiesel and emulsified diesel are being driven by the need for reducing emissions from diesel engines and saving energy. Artificial chemical additives are also being used in diesel engines for increasing their combustion efficiencies. But the effects associated with the use of emulsified additive/biodiesel/diesel blends in diesel engines have never been assessed. In this research| the premium diesel fuel (PDF) was used as the reference fuel. A soy-biodiesel was selected as the test biodiesel. A biosolution made of 96.5 wt % natural organic enzyme-7F (NOE-7F) and 3.5 wt % water (NOE-7F water) was used as the fuel additive. By adding additional 1 vol % of surfactant into the fuel blend| a nanotechnology was used to form emulsified biosolution/soy-biodiesel/PDF blends for fueling the diesel engine. We found that the emulsified biosolution/soy-biodiesel/PDF blends did not separate after being kept motionless for 30 days. The above stability suggests that the above combinations are suitable for diesel engines as alternative fuels. Particularly| we found that the emulsified biosolution/soy-biodiesel/PDF blends did have the advantage in saving energy and reducing the emissions of both particulate matters (PM) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from diesel engines as compared with PDF| soy-biodiesel/PDF blends| and emulsified soy-biodiesel/PDF blends. The results obtained from this study will provide useful approaches for reducing the petroleum reliance| pollution| and global warming. However| it should be noted that NOx emissions were not measured in the present study which warrants the need for future investigation. 8449,2008,2,4,Aquifer response to regional climate variability in a part of Kashmir Himalaya in India,Forty major perennial springs| under different lithological controls| in a part of Kashmir Himalaya in India were studied to understand the response of spring discharges to regional climate variability. The average monthly spring discharge is high in Triassic Limestone-controlled springs (karst springs) and low in alluvium- and Karewa-controlled springs. In general| the measured monthly spring discharges show an inverse relation with the monthly precipitation data. However| a direct correlation exists between the spring discharges and the degree of snow/ice melt. The results suggest that the creation of a low and continuous (but stable) recharge from the Triassic Limestone and Panjal Trap aquifers| due to blockage of groundwater flow between strata with contrasting hydraulic conductivity| attenuates the discharge and gives rise to small fluctuations in the alluvium- and Karewa-controlled springs. The average monthly discharge of the karst and alluvial springs showed an overall decreasing trend for two and a half decades| with the lowest discharge recorded in 2001. The study revealed that the regional/global warming and below-normal precipitation in the period of snow accumulation (PSA) has triggered the receding of glaciers and attenuation of spring discharges. 1067,2008,2,4,Arctic epishelf lakes as sentinel ecosystems: Past| present and future,Ice shelves are a prominent but diminishing feature of the northern coastline of Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic (latitude 82-83 degrees N). By blocking embayments and fiords| this thick coastal ice can create epishelf lakes| which are characterized by a perennially ice-capped water column of freshwater overlying seawater. The goal of this study was to synthesize new| archived| and published data on Arctic epishelf lakes in the context of climate change. Long-term changes along this coastline were evaluated using historical reports| cartographic analysis| RADARSAT imagery| and field measurements. These data| including salinity-temperature profiling records from Disraeli Fiord spanning 54 years| show the rapid decline and near disappearance of this lake type in the Arctic. Salinity-temperature profiling of Milne Fiord| currently blocked by the Milne Ice Shelf| confirmed that it contained an epishelf lake composed of a 16-m thick freshwater layer overlying seawater. A profiling survey along the coast showed that there was a continuum of ice-dammed lakes from shallow systems dammed by multiyear landfast sea ice to deep epishelf lakes behind ice shelves. The climate warming recently observed in this region likely contributed to the decline of epishelf lakes over the last century| and the air temperature trend predicted for the Arctic over the next several decades implies the imminent loss of this ecosystem type. Our results underscore the distinctive properties of coastal ice-dammed lakes and their value as sentinel ecosystems for the monitoring of regional and global climate change. 1192,2008,2,4,Arctic indigenous peoples as representations and representatives of climate change,Recent scientific findings| as presented in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)| indicate that climate change in the Arctic is happening now| at a faster rate than elsewhere in the world| and with major implications for peoples of the Arctic (especially indigenous peoples) and the rest of the planet. This paper examines scientific and political representations of Arctic indigenous peoples that have been central to the production and articulation of these claims. ACIA employs novel forms and strategies of representation that reflect changing conceptual models and practices of global change science and depict indigenous peoples as expert| exotic| and at-risk. These portrayals emerge alongside the growing political activism of Arctic indigenous peoples who present themselves as representatives or embodiments of climate change itself as they advocate for climate change mitigation policies. These mutually constitutive forms of representation suggest that scientific ways of seeing the global environment shape and are shaped by the public image and voice of global citizens. Likewise| the authority| credibility| and visibility of Arctic indigenous activists derive| in part| from their status as at-risk experts| a status buttressed by new scientific frameworks and methods that recognize and rely on the local experiences and knowledges of indigenous peoples. Analyses of these relationships linking scientific and political representations of Arctic climate change build upon science and technology studies (STS) scholarship on visualization| challenge conventional notions of globalization| and raise questions about power and accountability in global climate change research. 8686,2008,2,4,Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians,Many scientists argue that we are either entering or in the midst of the sixth great mass extinction. Intense human pressure| both direct and indirect| is having profound effects on natural environments. The amphibians-frogs| salamanders| and caecilians-may be the only major group currently at risk globally. A detailed worldwide assessment and subsequent updates show that one-third or more of the 6|300 species are threatened with extinction. This trend is likely to accelerate because most amphibians occur in the tropics and have small geographic ranges that make them susceptible to extinction. The increasing pressure from habitat destruction and climate change is likely to have major impacts on narrowly adapted and distributed species. We show that salamanders on tropical mountains are particularly at risk. A new and significant threat to amphibians is a virulent| emerging infectious disease| chytridiomycosis| which appears to be globally distributed| and its effects may be exacerbated by global warming. This disease| which is caused by a fungal pathogen and implicated in serious declines and extinctions of > 200 species of amphibians| poses the greatest threat to biodiversity of any known disease. Our data for frogs in the Sierra Nevada of California show that the fungus is having a devastating impact on native species| already weakened by the effects of pollution and introduced predators. A general message from amphibians is that we may have little time to stave off a potential mass extinction. 1278,2008,2,4,Arthropod community diversity and trophic structure: a comparison between extremes of plant stress,1. Previous studies have shown that plant stress and plant vigour impact the preference and performance of many insect species. Global climate-change scenarios suggest that some regions such as continental interiors may become increasingly subject to severe drought. In combination| these two issues suggest that drought-driven plant stress may impact insect communities on a landscape scale. While there have been many population studies relating plant stress to the life history of individual herbivore species| far less is known about how plant stress affects entire communities. 2. To study the effect of plant stress on arthropod communities| arthropods were sampled from the canopies of pinyon pines (Pinus edulis) growing at sites with a history of chronically high environmental stress (e.g. lower water potentials| soil moisture| and reduced growth rates)| and those growing under more favourable conditions. Sampling in these environments yielded > 59 000 arthropods| representing 287 species from 14 orders and 80 families| and revealed three major community patterns. 3. First| chronic stress significantly altered community composition. Second| trees growing under high stress supported about 1/10th the number of arthropods| and roughly half the species as trees growing under more favourable conditions. Third| of the 33 abundant herbivore species that exhibited a significantly skewed distribution towards either high- or low-stress trees| 73% were skewed with higher numbers on low-stress trees. 4. The pattern of potentially reduced arthropod diversity and abundance on stressed pines observed in this study may further compound the loss of species resulting from the recent| landscape-scale drought-induced mortality of pines in the southwestern USA. 8528,2008,2,4,Artificial beach recharge: the South East England experience,Artificial beach nourishment and beach recycling are widely used shoreline management techniques in the UK| especially in Sussex and east Kent where the majority of beaches are composed of mixed gravel and sand. Beach nourishment schemes in Sussex date back to the late nineteenth century; recycling was under way by 1900. Until the 1970s| beach nourishment in Sussex and east Kent was small-scale and occasional| but since this date there have been a proliferation of schemes| some very large-scale. Beach nourishment volumes peaked in 1995-1999; recycling in 1990-1994. To date| at least 6.7 million m(3) of shingle and sand have been added to the beaches of Sussex and cast Kent| and at least 7.6 million m(3) of beach material recycled. The total investment in beach nourishment has a present day replacement value of about pound 134 million| while the recycling that has been undertaken can be Valued at a further pound 10-11 million at present prices. The amounts of material added to the region's beaches indicate that South East En land has undergone a 'sedimentary crisis'. The volume of fresh shingle derived from cliff erosion is currently insufficient to offset losses. The nourished beaches have performed well| but Costs of beach nourishment have risen fivefold since the late 1980s| and it is unclear how long the technique will remain cost effective. If sea-levels rise as predicted due to global warming| beach nourishment will provide only a short-term 'fix'. In the medium to long term| as costs of beach nourishment rise to unacceptable levels| serious consideration will need to be given to abandoning| sonic low-lying coastal areas. 1346,2008,3,3,Asia's Changing Role in Global Climate Change,Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide| the principal greenhouse gas| from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China| India| and Japan| are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries| if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries| within countries| and between generations| need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided| and one approach to making progress is suggested. 1221,2008,2,4,Aspects of population ecology in two populations of fiddler crabs| Uca pugnax,Fiddler crabs| Uca pugnax| were collected from a highly contaminated site and a relatively clean site| both in New Jersey to determine if and how environments with varying levels of pollutants may impact aspects of population biology including individual size| morphology (major cheliped size)| population density| fecundity| recruitment and survivorship of early benthic phases. Crabs from the highly contaminated site were significantly larger in size| but had lower population density| lower recruitment| reduced reproductive season and lower survivorship of early benthic phases. Our study suggests that contamination may play a role in population ecology of U. pugnax. This study also determined that the reproductive season for U. pugnax in New Jersey is much longer than reported in the literature and could potentially be impacted by global climate change. 1253,2008,2,4,Assessing climate change impacts in the European north,Global climate change and its regional manifestation will result in significant impacts in the European North. However| in order to determine the consequences of such impacts| a holistic| integrated assessment is needed. This paper sets the stage for the remainder of this volume by describing an attempt to derive such an assessment for the Barents Sea Region through the EU-funded BALANCE project. The paper explains some of the major methodologies employed in the study. It also provides insight into major results obtained and attempts to answer a number of overarching questions. It will be shown that climate change does present a significant threat to environmental and societal integrity in the study region. However| it will also be shown that stakeholders regard other drivers of future changes (economical| political developments) at least as equally important for their personal lives. 8851,2008,3,3,Assessing environmental impact of magnesium production using Pidgeon process in China,Based on the practice of magnesium production in China| a quantitative evaluation of the environment impact was carried out according to the theory and framework of life cycle assessment(LCA) study. The major gaseous pollutants including CO(2)| SO(2)| NO(x)| CH(4)| HF and particulates were calculated. The accumulative environmental performances of different energy use strategies and the characterization results| including abiotic depletion potential(ADP)| global warming potential(GWP)| acidification potential(AP) and human-toxicity potential(HTP) were compared. The results show that the direct emission of fuel combustion in the process is the major contributor to the pollutants emission of magnesium production. Global warming potential and acidification potential make the main contribution to the accumulative environmental impact. The different fuel use strategies in the practice of magnesium production cause much different impacts on the environmental performance. The accumulative environmental impact of coal burned directly is the highest| and that of producer-gas comes to the next| while that of coke-oven gas is the lowest. 1207,2008,4,4,Assessing the consistency of AVHRR and MODIS L1B reflectance for generating fundamental climate data records,Satellite detection of the global climate change signals as small as a few percent per decade in albedo critically depends on consistent and accurately calibrated Level 1B (L1B) data or Fundamental Climate Data Records (FCDRs). Detecting small changes in signal over decades is a major challenge not only to the retrieval of geophysical parameters from satellite observations| but more importantly to the current state-of-the-art calibration| since such small changes can easily be obscured by erroneous variations in the calibration| especially for instruments with no onboard calibration| such as the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Without dependable FCDRs| its derivative Thematic Climate Data Records (TCDRs) are bound to produce false trends with questionable scientific value. This has been increasingly recognized by more and more remote sensing scientists. In this study we analyzed the consistency of calibrated reflectance from the operational L1B data between AVHRR on NOAA-16 and -17 and between NOAA-16/AVHRR and Aqua/MODIS| based on Simultaneous Nadir Overpass (SNO) observation time series. Analyses suggest that the NOAA-16 and -17/AVHRR operationally calibrated reflectance became consistent two years after the launch of NOAA-17| although they still differ by 9% from the MODIS reflectance for the 0.63 mm band. This study also suggests that the SNO method has reached a high level of relative accuracy (similar to 1.5%) for estimating the consistency for both the 0.63 and 0.84 mm bands between AVHRRs| and a 0.9% relative accuracy between AVHRR and MODIS for the 0.63 mm band. It is believed that the methodology is applicable to all historical AVHRR data for improving the calibration consistency| and work is in progress generating FCDRs from the nearly 30 years of AVHRR data using the SNO and other complimentary methods. A more consistent historical AVHRR L1B data set will be produced for a variety of geophysical products including aerosol| vegetation| cloud| and surface albedo to support global climate change detection studies. 8843,2008,2,4,Assessing the effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species,Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently| although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems| Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures| shorter duration of ice cover| altered streamflow patterns| increased salinization| and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change| new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions| Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions| some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions. 8873,2008,2,4,Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Seyhan River Basin in Turkey: Use of dynamically downscaled data for hydrologic simulations,We explored the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Seyhan River Basin in Turkey. A dynamical downscaling method| referred to as the pseudo global warming method (PGWM)| was used to connect the outputs of general circulation models (GCMs) and river basin hydrologic models. The GCMs used in this study were MRI-CGCM2 and CCSR/NIES/FRCGC-MIROC under the SRES A2 scenario| and the downscaled data covered two 10-year time slices corresponding to the present (1990s) and future (2070s). The hydrologic models along with a reservoir model were driven using the downscaled data for the present period. As a result| the temperature and precipitation| which were dynamically downscaled through bias-correction| were in good agreement with the observed data. The hydrologic simulation results also matched the observed flow| reservoir volume| and dam discharge. Therefore| we concluded that the PGWM combined with bias-correction is extremely useful to produce input data for hydrologic simulations. The simulation results for the future were compared with those for the present. The average annual temperature changes in the future relative to the present were projected to be +2.0 degrees C and +2.7 degrees C by MRI and CCSR| respectively. The annual precipitation decreased by 157 mm (25%) in MRI-future and by 182 mm (29%) in CCSR-future| and the annual evapotranspiration decreased by 36 mm (9%) in MRI-future and by 39 mm (10%) in CCSR-future; the annual runoff decreased by 118 mm (52%) in MRI-future and by 139 mm (61%) in CCSR-future. The analysis of water resource systems was conducted by using a simple scenario approach to take into account changes in water use. This analysis indicated that despite the impacts of climate change| water scarcity wilt not occur in the future if water demand does not increase. However| if the irrigated area is expanded in the future under the expectation of current flow| water scarcity will occur due to the combination of decreased inflow and increased water demand. Thus| in the Seyhan River Basin| water use and management will play more important roles than climate change in controlling future water resource conditions. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9222,2008,3,3,Assessment of enteric methane emissions by farm animals in France in 2007,Enteric methane accounts for 45 and 65% of total methane emissions| and is responsible for about 5% of global warming in France. The objective of the present paper was to update the annual enteric methane emissions by farm animals of the various categories in each involved species in France according to the recommendations of IPCC 2006 (Tier 3). Methane emissions have been assessed using the net energy requirements of animals converted to Metabolisable Energy Intake (MEI)| and conversion factors (Y(m)' = kcal methane per 100 kcal MEI). Conversion factors and emission factors (kg methane/animal/y) were computed for the various species and categories of animals. The emission factor averaged 117.7 for dairy cows yielding 6300 kg milk/y| and ranged from 90 to 163 when milk yield increased from 3500 to 11 000 kg/y. It averaged 86.7 for beef cows| and 43.0 for ruminant growing cattle. The corresponding values were 14.4 and 11 for dairy and suckling ewes| 14.3 for goats| 20.7 for equines and 0.8 for pigs. Total enteric methane emissions in France amounted to 1.41 million tons. Dairy cows| beef cows and growing cattle contributed for 32-25 and 34%| respectively| to total methane enteric emission. Contributions of sheep| goats| equines and pigs were 6.2| 1| 1.5 and 0.8%| respectively| of total enteric methane emissions. 8987,2008,2,4,Assessment of global warming impacts on water resources and ecology of a river basin in Japan,Global warming may cause serious problems in the world. However| the influence of water-related factors| such as water resources and basin ecology| due to global warming has not been comprehensively investigated. In this study| a distributed hydrological and environmental model is applied to assess the impacts of global warming on water resources and ecology of the Nagara River in Japan. With GCM outputs for the two periods| 1979 to 2000 and 2079 to 2100| the model simulation mainly reveals four aspects of the influences of global warming: (i) precipitation and streamflow discharge increase in summer; (ii) air temperature and water temperature rise; (iii) fish habitats are improved| except in summer; and (iv) the boundaries of the crop and vegetation move to higher elevations. (c) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Association for Hydraulic Engineering and Research| Asia Pacific Division. 9247,2008,2,4,Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America,In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality| extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation| temperature| and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair| Niagara and St. Lawrence| and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes| show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further| precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions| as developed from alternative GCMs| is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures| predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs| there is evidence that hydrologic changes particularly for the precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin may be demonstrating influences arising from global warming and climate change. 9168,2008,3,3,Assessment of nitrogen losses from urea and an organic manure with and without nitrification inhibitor| dicyandiamide| applied to lettuce under glasshouse conditions,Urea and organic manures such as 'Garden galore' (GG) are used to supply nitrogen (N) in vegetable farming and floriculture systems in New Zealand. However| a significant amount of the applied N is lost to the atmosphere via nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and ammonia (NH(3)) emissions| and leached to surface and ground water as nitrate (NO(3)(-)) contributing to environmental degradation such as global warming and eutrophication. One of the mitigation options to reduce these losses is to use nitrification inhibitors (NI). Glasshouse and laboratory incubation experiments were conducted under controlled moisture and temperature conditions to determine the effects of an NI| dicyandiamide (DCD)| on N losses from urea and GG applied to lettuce grown in a Manawatu sandy soil. Nitrogen and DCD were applied at the rates of 9 and 1.3 g/m(2)| respectively| and the gaseous emission of N(2)O and NH(3) were monitored over a 5-week period using a closed-chamber technique. At the end of the experiment the lettuce plant shoots and roots were harvested| and analysed for N concentration. Soils were leached with deionised water and leachates were analysed for ammonium (NH(4)(+)) and NO(3)(-). The results showed greater loss of N as NH(3) than N(2)O and the effect was more pronounced in the case of urea. Addition of DCD significantly reduced N(2)O emissions from both urea and GG| and increased NH(3) emissions from both urea and GG| with the increase being significant only for urea. Addition of DCD maintained higher soil NH(4)(+) concentration and lower NO(3)(-) concentration than without DCD. Overall| DCD was effective in reducing N losses of N(2)O emissions and NO(3) leaching. Urea application resulted in shoot tip burning and the symptoms were enhanced with the addition of DCD. There was no significant effect of DCD addition on lettuce yield. 8560,2008,3,4,Assessment of nitrogen losses to the environment with a Nitrogen Trading Tool (NTT),Nitrogen (N) losses from agriculture often contribute to reduced air| groundwater| and surface water quality. The minimization of these N losses is desirable from an environmental standpoint| and a recent interest in discounted reductions of agricultural N losses that might apply to a project downstream from an agricultural area has resulted in the concept of N credits and associated N trading. To help quantify management-induced reductions in N losses at the farm field level (essential components of a Nitrogen Trading Tool)| we defined a Nitrogen Trading Tool difference in reactive N losses (NTT-DNLreac) as the comparison between a baseline and new management scenarios. We used a newly released Windows XP version of the Nitrogen Losses and Environmental Assessment Package (NLEAP) simulation model with Geographic Information System (GIS) capabilities (NLEAP-GIS) to assess no-till systems from a humid North Atlantic US site| manure management from a Midwestern US site| and irrigated cropland from an and Western US site. The new NTT-DNLreac can be used to identify the best scenario that shows the greatest potential to maximize field-level savings in reactive N for environmental conservation and potential N credits to trade. A positive NTT-DNLreac means that the new N management practice increases the savings in reactive N with potential to trade these savings as N credits. A negative number means that there is no savings in reactive N and no N available to trade. The new NLEAP-GIS can be used to quickly identify the best scenario that shows the greatest potential to maximize field-level savings in reactive N for environmental conservation and earning N credits for trade. Published by Elsevier B.V. 1175,2008,2,3,Assessments of Mediterranean precipitation changes for the 21st century using statistical downscaling techniques,Statistical downscaling techniques are used to assess Mediterranean precipitation changes for the period 1990-2100 under increased greenhouse warming conditions from climate model output of large-scale predictor changes. Analyses are carried out on a monthly basis for the main rainy season from October to May. Results of two statistical techniques| multiple regression analysis| and canonical correlation analysis| are compared. Furthermore| differences which arise from the use of different combinations of the predictor variables| such as geopotential heights| humidity| and sea surface temperatures are discussed. Predictor output from seven different AOGCM runs (two ECHAM4/OPYC3 runs| four ECHO-G runs including a three-member ensemble| and one HadCM3 run) is used to assess Mediterranean precipitation changes in the 21st century. Five of the AOGCM runs were forced with B2 scenario assumptions according to the special report on emission scenarios (SRES)| one with SRES-A2 scenario assumptions| and one with the former IS92a scenario. Using 1000 hPa-/500 hPa-geopotential heights and 1000 hPa-specific humidity as large-scale predictors| a shorter but wetter wet season is evident for the western and northern Mediterranean regions including precipitation increases in winter and decreases in the transitional seasons for the period 2071-2100 compared to 1990-2019. The eastern and southern parts of the Mediterranean area exhibit mainly negative precipitation changes from October to May for an increased greenhouse gas forcing. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society. 1284,2008,2,3,Associations between grass and weed pollen and emergency department visits for asthma among children in Montreal,Context and objective: Asthma among children is a major public health problem worldwide. There are increasing number of studies suggesting a possible association between allergenic pollen and exacerbations of asthma. In the context of global climate change| a number of future climate and air pollution scenarios predict increases in concentrations of pollen| an extension of the pollen season| and an increase in the allergenicity of pollen. The goal of the present study is to evaluate the short-term effects of exposure to grass and weed pollen on emergency department visits and readmissions for asthma among children aged 0-9 years living in Montreal between April and October| 1994-2004. Methodology and results: Time-series analyses were carried out using parametric log-linear overdispersed Poisson models that were adjusted for temporal variations| daily weather conditions (temperature| atmospheric pressure)| and gaseous air pollutants (ozone and nitrogen dioxide). We have found positive associations between emergency department visits and concentrations of grass pollen 3 days after exposure. The effect of grass pollen was higher on emergency department readmissions as compared to initial visits. Weak negative associations were found between weed pollen (including ragweed pollen) and emergency department visits 2 days after exposure. Conclusion: The data indicate that among children| emergency department visits increased with increasing concentrations of grass pollen. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 8614,2008,4,4,Atmospheric chemistry of CF(3)CH(2)CF(2)CH(3) (HFC-365mfc): Kinetics and mechanism of chlorine atom initiated oxidation| infrared spectrum| and global warming potential,Smog chamber/FTIR techniques were used to study the chlorine atom initiated oxidation of CF(3)CH(2)CF(2)CH(3) in 700 Torr of N(2)/O(2) at 296 K. Relative rate techniques were used to measure k(CI + CF(3)CH(2)CF(2)CH(3)) = (1.02 +/- 0.14) x 10 (15) cm(3) molecule (1) s (1). The reaction proceeds via attack on the - CH(3) group leading to formation of CF(3)CH(2)CF(2)CHO which in turn is oxidized to CF(3)CHO and COF(2). The integrated IR band strength of CF(3)CH(2)CF(2)CH(3) over the range 600 - 1600 cm 1 is (1.89 +/- 0.10) x 10 (16) cm(2) molecule (1) cm (1). The global warming potential of CF(3)CH(2)CF(2)CH(3) is estimated to be 997 over a 100 year time horizon. (c) 2008 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved. 8518,2008,3,4,Atmospheric chemistry of HFE-7000 (CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)OCH(3)) and 2|2|3|3|4|4|4-heptafluoro-1-butanol (CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH): kinetic rate coefficients and temperature dependence of reactions with chlorine atoms,Background| aim| and scope The adverse environmental impacts of chlorinated hydrocarbons on the Earth's ozone layer have focused attention on the effort to replace these compounds by nonchlorinated substitutes with environmental acceptability. Hydrofluoroethers (HFEs) and fluorinated alcohols are currently being introduced in many applications for this purpose. Nevertheless| the presence of a great number of C-F bonds drives to atmospheric long-lived compounds with infrared absorption features. Thus| it is necessary to improve our knowledge about lifetimes and global warming potentials (GWP) for these compounds in order to get a complete evaluation of their environmental impact. Tropospheric degradation is expected to be initiated mainly by OH reactions in the gas phase. Nevertheless| Cl atoms reaction may also be important since rate constants are generally larger than those of OH. In the present work| we report the results obtained in the study of the reactions of Cl radicals with HFE-7000 (CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)OCH(3)) (1) and its isomer CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH (2). Materials and methods Kinetic rate coefficients with Cl atoms have been measured using the discharge flow tube-mass spectrometric technique at 1 Torr of total pressure. The reactions of these chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) substitutes have been studied under pseudo-first-order kinetic conditions in excess of the fluorinated compounds over Cl atoms. The temperature ranges were 266-333 and 298-353 K for reactions of HFE-7000 and CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH| respectively. Results The measured room temperature rate constants were k(Cl+CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)OCH(3))=(1.24 +/- 0.28)x10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and k(Cl+CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH)=(8.35 +/- 1.63)x10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (errors are 2 sigma+10% to cover systematic errors). The Arrhenius expression for reaction 1 was k(1)(266-333 K)=(6.1 +/- 3.8)xCe10(-13)exp[-(445 +/- 186)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and k(2)(298-353 K)=(1.9 +/- 0.7)x10(-12)exp[-(244 +/- 125)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (errors are 2 sigma). The reactions are reported to proceed through the abstraction of an H atom to form HCl and the corresponding halo-alkyl radical. At 298 K and 1 Torr| yields on HCl of 0.95 +/- 0.38 and 0.97 +/- 0.16 (errors are 2 sigma) were obtained for CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)OCH(3) and CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH| respectively. Discussion The obtained kinetic rate constants are related to the previous data in the literature| showing a good agreement taking into account the error limits. Comparing the obtained results at room temperature| k(1) and k(2)| HFE-7000 is significantly less reactive than its isomer C(3)F(7)CH(2)OH. A similar behavior has been reported for the reactions of other fluorinated alcohols and their isomeric fluorinated ethers with Cl atoms. Literature data| together with the results reported in this work| show that| for both fluorinated ethers and alcohols| the kinetic rate constant may be considered as not dependent on the number of -CF(2)- in the perfluorinated chain. This result may be useful since it is possible to obtain the required physicochemical properties for a given application by changing the number of -CF(2)-without changes in the atmospheric reactivity. Furthermore| lifetimes estimations for these CFCs substitutes are calculated and discussed. The average estimated Cl lifetimes are 256 and 38 years for HFE-7000 and C(3)H(7)CH(2)OH| respectively. Conclusions The studied CFCs' substitutes are relatively short-lived and OH reaction constitutes their main reactive sink. The average contribution of Cl reactions to global lifetime is about 2% in both cases. Nevertheless| under local conditions as in the marine boundary layer| tau(Cl) values as low as 2.5 and 0.4 years for HFE-7000 and C(3)H(7)CH(2)OH| respectively| are expected| showing that the contribution of Cl to the atmospheric degradation of these CFCs substitutes under such conditions may constitute a relevant sink. In the case of CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)OCH(3)| significant activation energy has been measured| thus the use of kinetic rate coefficient only at room temperature would result in underestimations of lifetimes and GWPs. Recommendations and perspectives The results obtained in this work may be helpful within the database used in the modeling studies of coastal areas. The knowledge of the atmospheric behavior and the structure-reactivity relationship discussed in this work may also contribute to the development of new environmentally acceptable chemicals. New volatile materials susceptible of emission to the troposphere should be subject to the study of their reactions with OH and Cl in the range of temperature of the troposphere. The knowledge of the temperature dependence of the kinetic rate constants| as it is now reported for the case of reactions 1 and 2| will allow more accurate lifetimes and related magnitudes like GWPs. Nevertheless| a better knowledge of the vertical Cl tropospheric distribution is still required. 8620,2008,4,4,Atmospheric chemistry of trans-CF(3)CH = CHCl: Kinetics of the gas-phase reactions with Cl atoms| OH radicals| and O(3),Long path length Fourier transform infrared (FTIR)-smog chamber techniques were used to study the kinetics of the gas-phase reactions of Cl atoms. OH radicals and O(3) with trans-3|3|3-trifluoro-1-chloropropene| t-CF(3)CH = CHCl| in 700Torr total pressure at 295 +/- 2 K. Values of k(Cl + t-CF(3)CH = CHCl) = (5.22 +/- 0.72) x 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| k(OH + t-CF(3)CH = CHCl) = (4.40 +/- 0.38) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and k(O(3) + t-CF(3)CH = CHCl) = (1.46 +/- 0.12) x 10(-21) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| were established (quoted uncertainties are 2 sigma: see Experimental section). The IR spectrum of t-CF(3)CH = CHCl is reported. The atmospheric lifetime of t-CF(3)CH = CHCl is determined by reaction with OH radicals and is approximately 26 days. The global warming potential of t-CF(3)CH = CHCl is approximately 7 for a 100-year time horizon. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8428,2008,2,4,Atmospheric corrosion of metals in regions of cold and extremely cold climate (a review),The results of atmospheric corrosion tests on a series of metals and alloys in marine and industrial atmospheres of the Earth's regions with cold and very cold climate (Antarctic| sub-Arctic| Russian Far East) are considered. The class of most dangerous corrosive damage includes special types such as pitting| exfoliation corrosion| crevice corrosion and corrosion-induced cracking. Long-term prognosis is made concerning the influence of global warming on the atmospheric corrosion in cold climate regions. 8610,2008,2,2,Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes,Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However| observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model- projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature| with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore| the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models| implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated. 1238,2008,2,3,Australian approaches to coastal vulnerability assessment,The Australian coastline is one of the longest and most diverse of any in the world| and Australian researchers have developed preliminary models of the behaviour of major coastal systems such as beaches and reefs. The Australian population is particularly focused along the coastline| especially in metropolitan centres; however| the population of regional centres along the coast is increasing steadily in response to a phenomenon termed seachange. Coastal systems are increasingly threatened by potential impacts as a result of climate change| as indicated by the successive assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Although Australia played a central role in applying a common methodology (CM)| developed from IPCC guidelines in the 1990s| and in devising alternative approaches| which were initially trialled at nine sites on the Australian coast| there has not been a nationally co-ordinated approach to assessing the coastal vulnerability of Australia| and such an approach is only emerging now. Instead| there have been a series of different approaches adopted to look at the different parts of the Australian coast| including wetland mapping in northern Australia; geomorphic unit mapping in South Australia; storm surge vulnerability modelling in Queensland; probabilistic approaches to beach erosion in New South Wales; indicative mapping of potential coastal retreat in Tasmania. Additionally| there have been methods proposed by insurers and coastal engineers to meet their requirements. Since 2005| the Australian government has once again seen the need for a national coastal vulnerability assessment| and a series of studies are planned or under way to achieve the aims of a National Climate Change Adaptation Framework. 1062,2008,2,3,Australian climate-carbon cycle feedback reduced by soil black carbon,Annual emissions of carbon dioxide from soil organic carbon are an order of magnitude greater than all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions taken together(1). Global warming is likely to increase the decomposition of soil organic carbon| and thus the release of carbon dioxide from soils(2-5)| creating a positive feedback(6-9). Current models of global climate change that recognize this soil carbon feedback are inaccurate if a larger fraction of soil organic carbon than postulated has a very slow decomposition rate. Here we show that by including realistic stocks of black carbon in prediction models| carbon dioxide emissions are reduced by 18.3 and 24.4% in two Australian savannah regions in response to a warming of 3 degrees C over 100 years(1). This reduction in temperature sensitivity| and thus the magnitude of the positive feedback| results from the long mean residence time of black carbon| which we estimate to be approximately 1|300 and 2|600 years| respectively. The inclusion of black carbon in climate models is likely to require spatially explicit information about its distribution| given that the black carbon content of soils ranged from 0 to 82% of soil organic carbon in a continental-scale analysis of Australia. We conclude that accurate information about the distribution of black carbon in soils is important for projections of future climate change. 1065,2008,2,4,Back to the future: Developing hypotheses on the effects of climate change on ovine parasitic gastroenteritis from historical data,Although the influence of temperature and moisture on the free-living stages of gastrointestinal nematodes has been described in detail| and evidence for global climate change is mounting| serious attempts to relate altered incidence or seasonal patterns of disease to climate change are lacking. In Great Britain| veterinary surveillance laboratory diagnoses of ovine parasitic gastroenteritis (PGE) have been categorised in species groups and recorded since 1975. Here we present a detailed analysis of these historical data. Over the past 5-10 years| highly significant increases in the overall rate of diagnosis of PGE were observed for all species categories. After identifying and analysing possible sources of bias| the effect of climate change on parasite epidemiology proved the most likely explanation for the observed patterns| although other hypotheses could not be refuted. Seasonal rates of diagnosis suggest that| in line with increases in temperature| fewer larvae of Teladorsagia and Trichostrongylus species survive the winter and spring at pasture| while the windows of transmission of these species| and of Haemonchus contortus| have extended into the autumn. For all species categories significant differences in rates of diagnosis| and in the seasonality of disease| were identified between regions. Nematodirosis showed a pronounced peak in spring and early summer in Scotland while in the Southwest| where fewer diagnoses were made| it also appeared regularly at other times of year. The data presented serve as a baseline against which future changes can be measured. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1043,2008,3,1,Banagrass vs Eucalyptus Wood as Feedstocks for Metallurgical Biocarbon Production,Excessive emissions of fossil CO(2) are known to be a primary cause of global climate change. Emissions from the iron and steel-making industries account for 5-6% of global fossil CO(2) emissions. Biocarbon (i.e.| charcoal) could be used to replace the coal currently employed to smelt iron ore and thereby reduce fossil CO(2) emissions. In Brazil| Eucalyptus wood charcoal is used to smelt iron ore| but there is interest in the use of charcoal produced from other biomass feedstocks. Banagrass| a variety of elephantgrass (Pennisetum purpureum| Schum.)| which produces near-record amounts of biomass| is a promising biomass candidate for charcoal production in Brazil and elsewhere. In this paper we describe results of charcoal production from banagrass of different ages and states of demineralization. Mature banagrass provides the highest yields of biocarbon. In addition to its maturity| the structure of the feedstock strongly influences the fixed-carbon yield. Our results indicate that banagrass may be preferred to Eucalyptus wood as a promising feedstock for metallurgical biocarbon production. 9051,2008,2,4,Baselines and Degradation of Coral Reefs in the Northern Line Islands,Effective conservation requires rigorous baselines of pristine conditions to assess the impacts of human activities and to evaluate the efficacy of management. Most coral reefs are moderately to severely degraded by local human activities such as fishing and pollution as well as global change| hence it is difficult to separate local from global effects. To this end| we surveyed coral reefs on uninhabited atolls in the northern Line Islands to provide a baseline of reef community structure| and on increasingly populated atolls to document changes associated with human activities. We found that top predators and reef-building organisms dominated unpopulated Kingman and Palmyra| while small planktivorous fishes and fleshy algae dominated the populated atolls of Tabuaeran and Kiritimati. Sharks and other top predators overwhelmed the fish assemblages on Kingman and Palmyra so that the biomass pyramid was inverted (top-heavy). In contrast| the biomass pyramid at Tabuaeran and Kiritimati exhibited the typical bottom-heavy pattern. Reefs without people exhibited less coral disease and greater coral recruitment relative to more inhabited reefs. Thus| protection from overfishing and pollution appears to increase the resilience of reef ecosystems to the effects of global warming. 9156,2008,2,4,Bayesian analysis of the species-specific lengthening of the growing season in two European countries and the influence of an insect pest,A recent lengthening of the growing season in mid and higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere is reported as a clear indicator for climate change impacts. Using data from Germany (1951-2003) and Slovenia (1961-2004)| we study whether changes in the start| end| and length of the growing season differ among four deciduous broad-leaved tree species and countries| how the changes are related to temperature changes| and what might be the confounding effects of an insect attack. The functional behaviour of the phenological and climatological time series and their trends are not analysed by linear regression| but by a new Bayesian approach taking into account different models for the functional description (one change-point| linear| constant models). We find advanced leaf unfolding in both countries with the same species order (oak > horse chestnut| beech| and birch). However| this advance is non linear over time and more apparent in Germany with clear change-points in the late 1970s| followed by marked advances (on average 3.67 days decade(-1) in the 2000s). In Slovenia| we find a more gradual advance of onset dates (on average 0.8 days decade(-1) in the 2000s). Leaf colouring of birch| beech| and oak has been slightly delayed in the last 3 decades| especially in Germany| however with no clear functional behaviour. Abrupt changes in leaf colouring dates of horse chestnut with recent advancing onset dates can be linked across countries to damage by a newly emerging pest| the horse chestnut leaf-miner (Cameraria ohridella). The lengthening of the growing season| more distinct in Germany than in Slovenia (on average 4.2 and 1.0 days decade(-1) in the 2000s| respectively)| exhibits the same species order in both countries ( oak > birch > beech). Damage by horse chestnut leaf-miner leads to reduced lengthening (Germany) and drastic shortening (Slovenia) of the horse chestnut growing season (-12 days decade-1 in the 2000s). Advanced spring leaf unfolding and lengthening of the growing season of oak| beech and birch are highly significantly related to increasing March temperatures in both countries. Only beech and oak leaf unfolding in Germany| which is generally observed later in the year than that of the other two species| is more closely correlated with April temperatures| which comparably exhibit marked change-points at the end of the 1970s. 8965,2008,4,4,Behavioral models of decision making under risk and/or uncertainty with application to public sectors,In this paper| some behavioral (or descriptive) models of individual decision making under risk and/or uncertainty are discussed. Firstly| a model to explain the violations of expected utility hypothesis is described. In this model outcome-dependent| non-additive probabilities are introduced in a measurable value function under risk where probability of each event occurring is known. The effective application of this approach to the public sector is shown in modeling risks of extreme events with low probability and high outcome. Next| a measurable value function under uncertainty is also described where basic probability of a set of event is known but occurrence probability of each event is not known. Potential applicability to evaluating a global warming problem is mentioned. As a special case of the measurable value function under uncertainty an extended Kahneman-Tversky model of prospect theory under uncertainty (PTU) is described. An application of PTU in evaluating the sense of security provided by nursing care robots is described. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
8831,2008,2,4,Beyond the alien invasion: A recently discovered radiation of Nesopupinae (Gastropoda : Pulmonata : Vertiginidae) from the summits of Tahiti (Society Islands| French Polynesia),On Tahiti| invasive species such as the carnivorous snail Euglandina rosea or the tree Miconia calvescens; have impacted much of indigenous species or habitats| even in remote places not affected by agriculture or development. However| thanks to the extreme ecological conditions in altitude| these invasive species have not reached higher elevation where patches of native vegetation with endemic flora and fauna still occur. On Mount Aorai| second highest peak of Tahiti (2066 m)| the impact of Euglandina rosea and Miconia calvescens reach a maximum altitude of 1400 m. Above this altitude| endemic gastropod species are still found alive and some remain undescribed. A new genus of Vertiginidae| Nesoropupa n. gn.| is described for four new species from the top 500 m of Mount Aorai and Mount Marau: N. duodecim n. sp. (type species)| N. fenua n. sp.| N. nathaliae n. sp. and N. fontainei n. sp. Also discussed is how the impact of global warming is allowing introduced species to colonize higher altitudes up to the summits. 8942,2008,2,4,Bioenergetic cost of heat tolerance in wheat crop,Decline in national wheat productivity| and stagnation of yield in the national Advanced Varietal Trials in the past decade are partly attributed to high temperature stress during the period of grain-filling. In view of the predicted global warming| terminal heat stress is likely to increase. Heat shock proteins (HSPs) synthesized to cope with the heat stress in different organisms are known to provide protection and repair the cellular damage caused by heat. The production cost of HSPs from different plant species - wheat| Arabidopsis| Phaseolus and maize ubiquitin was calculated based on their reported amino acid composition| and the production value of individual amino acids published earlier. Glucose required for the production of wheat HSP 101 was 20% higher compared to the storage proteins in wheat grains. Thus| incorporation of terminal heat tolerance into high-yielding cultivars will have an energetic cost| and would require additional carbon assimilates and N inputs. 8922,2008,3,2,Bioenergy to save the world - Producing novel energy plants for growth on abandoned land,Background and Aim. Following to the 2006 climate summit| the European Union formally set the goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. But even today| climate change is already affecting people and ecosystems. Examples are melting glaciers and polar ice| reports about thawing permafrost areas| dying coral reefs| rising sea levels| changing ecosystems and fatal heat periods. Within the last 150 years| CO2 levels rose from 280 ppm to currently over 400 ppm. If we continue on our present course| CO2 equivalent levels could approach 600 ppm by 2035. However| if CO2 levels are not stabilized at the 450-550 ppm level| the consequences could be quite severe. Hence| if we do not act now| the opportunity to stabilise at even 550 ppm is likely to slip away. Long-term stabilisation will require that CO2 emissions ultimately be reduced to more than 80% below current levels. This will require major changes in how we operate. Results. Reducing greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels seems to be the most promising approach to counterbalance the dramatic climate changes we would face in the near future. It is clear since the Kyoto protocol that the availability of fossil carbon resources will not match our future requirements. Furthermore| the distribution of fossil carbon sources around the globe makes them an even less reliable source in the future. We propose to screen crop and non-crop species for high biomass production and good survival on marginal soils as well as to produce mutants from the same species by chemical mutagenesis or related methods. These plants| when grown in adequate crop rotation| will provide local farming communities with biomass for the fermentation in decentralized biogas reactors| and the resulting nitrogen rich manure can be distributed on the fields to improve the soil. Discussion. Such an approach will open new economic perspectives to small farmers| and provide a clever way to self sufficient and sustainable rural development. Together with the present economic reality| where energy and raw material prices have drastically increased over the last decade| they necessitate the development and the establishment of alternative concepts. Conclusions. Biotechnology is available to apply fast breeding to promising energy plant species. It is important that our valuable arable land is preserved for agriculture. The opportunity to switch from low-income agriculture to biogas production may convince small farmers to adhere to their business and by that preserve the identity of rural communities. Perspectives. Overall| biogas is a promising alternative for the future| because its resource base is widely available| and single farms or small local cooperatives might start biogas plant operation. 9256,2008,3,4,Biofuels from dedicated tropical plantation forests: it is time for detailed studies of the lignofuels options,As a source of alternative fuels| ligueous biomass offers two significant advantages: trees call grow oil low-yield land unsuited for food production and supply the energy required for producing derived fuels. Technologies for its conversion into Substitutes for gasoline and especially for diesel fuel are complex and expensive. Harnessing and applying them will however be pushed forward by the double challenge of oil resource depletion and global warming. Ample sunlight and high rainfall suggest that the tropics may lie the preferred areas where Plantation forests dedicated to lignocellulose fuel production (or lignofuels as distinct from agrofuels) could be established. At petroleum prices 10 to 20% above 2007 levels| the authors conclude that a "bioethanol outlet" for tropical forest plantations oil deforested idle lands and humid savannahs is viable. To meet the very rapid expected growth in demand for biomass| Such Projects Should thus be initiated now. Key issues to be covered in related feasibility Studies are discussed herein. 9028,2008,3,3,Biofuels| climate change and industrial development: can the tropical South build 2000 biorefineries in the next decade?,Biofuels are important because they span three of the greatest issues of our time-world industrial development; energy security and the transition to a bioeconomy; and global warming. Biofuels have something important to contribute as a solution in each of these three areas-without being a 'magic bullet' or the whole of the solution in any of them. Indeed| biofuels may be a transitory solution that will phase out after two or three decades as new electric-powered transport systems take over. But in the meantime| biofuels have the potential to bring together North and South in a new Biopact of transcendent significance| promising to allow countries of the South to lift themselves out of poverty through biofuel cultivation| processing and export; and countries of the North to solve their transport and global warming problems by opening up to biofuels produced sustainably and responsibly from the tropical South. A goal of 2000 biorefineries over the course of the next decade is entirely realistic: their output would be of the order of 400 billion liters of ethanol and/or biodiesel| or about one fifth of OECD countries' current transport fuel requirements. The investment required would be of the order of US$240 billion over a decade compared with the more than $470 billion expected by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to be invested in the oil and gas industry in a single year by 2010. In this light| the investment required is modest. Such an investment can only be undertaken if markets in the North are guaranteed. The best means of achieving such an investment-grade guarantee is through a comprehensive global trade agreement. But the prospects for such an agreement are vitiated by the cacophony of opposition to biofuels raised in the North| by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and vested interests| who are raising hysterical concerns over the transition from fossil fuels to biofuels| and stand accused of seeking industrial protection under the guise of environmental concerns. (c) 2008 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons| Ltd 1322,2008,3,3,Biohydrogen generation from organic waste,Hydrogen is not a primary fuel. It must be manufactured from water with either fossil or nonfossil energy sources. Widespread use of hydrogen as an energy source could improve global climate change| energy efficiency| and air quality. The thermochemical conversion processes| such as pyrolysis| gasification| and steam gasification are available for converting the biomass to a more useful energy. The yield from steam gasification increases with increasing water-to-sample ratio. The yields of hydrogen from the pyrolysis and the steam gasification increase with increase of temperature. Hydrogen-powered fuel cells are an important enabling technology for the hydrogen future and more efficient alternatives to the combustion of gasoline and other fossil fuels. Hydrogen has the potential to solve two major energy problems: reducing dependence on petroleum and reducing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. 1349,2008,3,3,Biohydrogen Production from Molasses Using Wild Type E. Coli,Methane fermentation has been in practice over a century for the stabilization of high strength organic waste/waste water. Although methanogenesis is a well established process and methane -the end-product of methanogenesis is a useful energy source; it is a low value end product with relatively less energy content (about 56 kJ energy per g CH4). Besides| methane and its combustion by-product are powerful greenhouse gases| and responsible for global climate change. 1123,2008,2,4,Biological consequences of global warming: does sea surface temperature affect cetacean distribution in the western Ligurian Sea?,The aim of this study was to assess if sea surface temperature does affect cetacean distribution in the western Ligurian Sea. Relationships with temperature were investigated for. striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba)| fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) and sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus). Remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) data were studied. A series of 20 monthly images (i.e. June to September monthly images from 1996 to 2000) was considered. Concurrently| distribution data collected during shipboard summer surveys| and covering an area of about 20|000 km(2) in the western Ligurian Sea| were analysed. The relationship between the three species presence and SST was investigated by using a grid of 3 x 3 nautical mile cell units. For every cell the SST mean| standard deviation| coefficient of variance and the deviation from the monthly average were calculated. Finally| binary logistic regression functions allowed to assess significant (P < 0.05) relationships with temperature in these species. These logistic models| were able to predict 60-78% of the species presence(1)/absence(o) cells| and suggest the need for further investigations spanning longer time periods to assess how the global climate change has been changing and will change in the future cetacean distribution in the western Ligurian Sea. 9171,2008,2,2,Biology of the planktonic stages of benthic octopuses,Octopuses of the family Octopodidae adopt two major life-history strategies. The first is the production of relatively few| large eggs resulting in well-developed hatchlings that resemble the adults and rapidly adopt the benthic habit of their parents. The second strategy is production of numerous small eggs that hatch into planktonic| free-swimming hatchlings with few suckers| simple chromatophores and transparent musculature. These distinctive planktonic stages are termed paralarvae and differ from conspecific adults in their morphology| physiology| ecology and behaviour. This study aims to review available knowledge on this subject. In benthic octopuses with planktonic stages| spawning characteristics and duration of planktonic life seem to play an important role in their dispersal capacities. Duration of the hatching period of a single egg mass can range from 2 days to 11 wk| while duration of the planktonic stage can range from 3 wk to half a year| depending on the species and temperature. Thus these paralarvae possess considerable potential for dispersal. In some species| individuals reach relatively large sizes while living as part of the micronekton of oceanic| epipelagic waters. Such forms appear to delay settlement for an unknown period that is suspected to be longer than for paralarvae in more coastal| neritic waters. During the planktonic period| paralarval octopuses feed on crustaceans as their primary prey. In addition to the protein| critical to the protein-based metabolism of octopuses (and all cephalopods)| the lipid and copper contents of the prey also appear important in maintaining normal growth. Littoral and oceanic fishes are their main predators and defence behaviours may involve fast swimming speeds| use of ink decoys| dive responses and camouflage. Sensory systems of planktonic stages include photo-| mechano- and chemoreceptors controlled by a highly evolved nervous system that follows the general pattern described for adult cephalopods. On settlement| a major metamorphosis occurs in morphology| physiology and behaviour. Morphological changes associated with the settlement process include positive allometric arm growth; chromatophore| iridophore and leucophore genesis; development of skin sculptural components and a horizontal pupillary response. At the same time| animals lose the Kolliker organs that cover the body surface| the 'lateral line system' and the oral denticles of the beaks. Strong positive phototaxis is a common response for hatchlings and some later paralarval stages but this response reduces| disappears or reverses after settlement. There are many gaps in our knowledge of the planktonic phases of benthic octopuses. Most of our understanding of octopus paralarvae comes from studies of just two species (Octopus vulgaris and Enteroctopus dofleini) and knowledge of the vast majority of benthic octopus species with planktonic stages is considered rudimentary or non-existent. Research is needed in a variety of fields| from taxonomy to ecology. Studies of feeding and nutrition are critical in order to develop the nascent aquaculture of key species and ageing studies are necessary to understand planktonic population dynamics| particularly in commercially valuable species targeted by fisheries. Current and potential anthropogenic impacts on these early life stages of octopuses| such as pollution| overfishing and global warming| are also identified. 8441,2008,3,4,Biotransformation of 2|3|3|3-tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234yf),2|3|3|3-Tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234yf) is a non-ozone-depleting fluorocarbon replacement with a low global warming potential which has been developed as refrigerant. The biotransformation of HFO-1234yf was investigated after inhalation exposure. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to air containing 2000| 10|000| or 50|000 ppm HFO-1234yf for 6 h and male B6C3F1 mice were exposed to 50|000 ppm HFO-1234yf for 3.5 h in a dynamic exposure chamber (n=5/concentration). After the end of the exposure| animals were individually housed in metabolic cages and urines were collected at 6 or 12-hour intervals for 48 h. For metabolite identification| Urine samples were analyzed by (1)H-coupled and decoupled (19)F-NMR and by LC/MS-MS or CC/MS. Metabolites were identified by (19)F-NMR chemical shifts| signal multiplicity| (1)H-(19)F coupling constants and by comparison with synthetic reference Compounds. In all Urine samples| the predominant metabolites were two diastereomers of N-acetyl-S-(3|3|3-trifluoro-2-hydroxy-propyl)-L-cysteine| In (19)F-NMR| the signal intensity of these metabolites represented more than 85% (50|000 ppm) of total (19)F related signals in the urine samples. Trifluoroacetic acid| 3|3|3-trifluorolactic acid| 3|3|3-trifluoro-1-hydroxyacetone| 3|2|1|3-trifluoroacetone and 3|3|3-trifluoro-1|2-dihydroxypropane were present as minor metabolites. Quantification of N-aceryl-S-(3|3|3-trifluoro-2-hydroxy-propyl)-L-cysteine by LC/MS-MS showed that most of this metabolite (90%) was excreted within 18 h after the end of exposure (t(1/2) app. 6 h. In rats| the recovery of N-acetyl-S-(3|3|3-trifluoro-2-hydroxy-propyl)-L-cysteine excreted within 48 +/- 11 in urine was determined as 0.30 +/- 0.03| 0.63 +/- 0.16| and 2.43 +/- 0.86 mu mol at 2000| 10|000 and 50|000 ppm| respectively suggesting only a low extent (<< 1% of close received) of biotransformation of HFO-1234yf. In mice| the recovery of this metabolite was 1.774 +/- 0.4 mu mol. Metabolites identified after in vitro incubations of HFO-1234yf in liver microsomes from rat| rabbit| and human support the metabolic pathways of HFO-1234yf revealed in vivo| The obtained results suggest that HFO-1234yf is subjected to a typical biotransformation reaction for haloolefins| likely by a cytochrome P450 2E1-catalyzed formation of 2|3|3|3 -tetrafluoroepoxypropanea at low rates| followed by glutathione conjugation or hydrolytic ring opening. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 8662,2008,2,4,Bird migration times| climate change| and changing population sizes,Past studies of bird migration times have shown great variation in migratory responses to climate change. We used 33 years of bird capture data (1970-2002) from Manomet| Massachusetts to examine variation in spring migration times for 32 species of North American passerines. We found that changes in first arrival dates - the unit of observation used in most studies of bird migration times - often differ dramatically from changes in the mean arrival date of the migration cohort as a whole. In our study| the earliest recorded springtime arrival date for each species occurred 0.20 days later each decade. In contrast| the mean arrival dates for birds of each species occurred 0.78 days earlier each decade. The difference in the two trends was largely explained by declining migration cohort sizes| a factor not examined in many previous studies. We found that changes in migration cohort or population sizes may account for a substantial amount of the variation in previously documented changes in migration times. After controlling for changes in migration cohort size| we found that climate variables| migration distance| and date of migration explained portions of the variation in migratory changes over time. In particular| short-distance migrants appeared to respond to changes in temperature| while mid-distance migrants responded particularly strongly to changes in the Southern Oscillation Index. The migration times of long-distance migrants tended not to change over time. Our findings suggest that previously reported changes in migration times may need to be reinterpreted to incorporate changes in migration cohort sizes. 8410,2008,2,4,Birds are tracking climate warming| but not fast enough,Range shifts of many species are now documented as a response to global warming. But whether these observed changes are occurring fast enough remains uncertain and hardly quantifiable. Here| we developed a simple framework to measure change in community composition in response to climate warming. This framework is based on a community temperature index (CTI) that directly reflects| for a given species assemblage| the balance between low- and high-temperature dwelling species. Using data from the French breeding bird survey| we first found a strong increase in CTI over the last two decades revealing that birds are rapidly tracking climate warming. This increase corresponds to a 91 km northward shift in bird community composition| which is much higher than previous estimates based on changes in species range edges. During the same period| temperature increase corresponds to a 273 km northward shift in temperature. Change in community composition was thus insufficient to keep up with temperature increase: birds are lagging approximately 182 km behind climate warming. Our method is applicable to any taxa with large-scale survey data| using either abundance or occurrence data. This approach can be further used to test whether different delays are found across groups or in different land-use contexts. 8885,2008,2,3,Bottom-up and climatic forcing on the worldwide population of leatherback turtles,Nesting populations of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans are increasing or stable while those in the Pacific are declining. It has been suggested that leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific may be resource limited due to environmental variability derived from the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| but this has yet to be tested. Here we explored bottom-up forcing and the responding reproductive output of nesting leatherbacks worldwide. We achieved this through an extensive review of leatherback nesting and migration data and by analyzing the spatial| temporal| and quantitative nature of resources as indicated by net primary production at post-nesting female migration and foraging areas. Leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific were the smallest in body size and had the lowest reproductive output due to less productive and inconsistent resources within their migration and foraging areas. This derived from natural interannual and multidecadal climate variability together with an influence of anthropogenic climate warming that is possibly affecting these natural cycles. The reproductive output of leatherbacks in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans was nearly twice that of turtles in the eastern Pacific. The inconsistent nature of the Pacific Ocean may also render western Pacific leatherbacks susceptible to a more variable reproductive output; however| it appears that egg harvesting on nesting beaches is their major threat. We suggest that the eastern Pacific leatherback population is more sensitive to anthropogenic mortality due to recruitment rates that are lower and more variable| thus accounting for much of the population differences compared to Atlantic and western Indian turtles. 1079,2008,2,3,Building Human Resilience The Role of Public Health Preparedness and Response As an Adaptation to Climate Change,Global climate change will increase the probability of extreme weather events| including heatwaves| drought| wildfire| cyclones| and heavy precipitation that could cause floods and landslides. Such events create significant public health needs that can exceed local capacity to respond| resulting in excess morbidity or mortality and in the declaration of disasters. Human vulnerability to any disaster is a complex phenomenon with social| economic| health| and cultural dimensions. Vulnerability to natural disasters has two sides: the degree of exposure to dangerous hazards (susceptibility) and the capacity to cope with or recover from disaster consequences (resilience). Vulnerability reduction programs reduce susceptibility and increase resilience. Susceptibility to disasters is reduced largely by prevention and mitigation of emergencies. Emergency preparedness and response and recovery activities-including those that address climate change-increase disaster resilience. Because adaptation must occur at the community level| local public health agencies are uniquely placed to build human resilience to climate-related disasters. This article discusses the role of public health in reducing human vulnerability to climate change within the context of select examples for emergency preparedness and response. 1239,2008,2,4,Cadmium-dependent oxygen limitation affects temperature tolerance in eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica Gmelin),Marine ectotherms| including oysters are exposed to variable environmental conditions in coastal shallow waters and estuaries. In the light of global climate change| additional stressors like pollution might pose higher risk to populations. On the basis of the concept of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance in aquatic ectotherms (40)| we show that a persistent pollutant| cadmium| can have detrimental effects on oysters (Crassostrea virginica). During acute warming from 20 to 28 degrees C (4 degrees C/48 h) standard metabolic rate (SMR) rose in control and cadmium-exposed (50 mu g Cd2+/l) animals| with a consistently higher SMR in Cd-exposed oysters. Additionally| Cd-exposed oysters showed a stronger temperature-dependent decrease in hemolymph oxygen partial pressures. This observation indicates that the effect of temperature on aerobic metabolism was exacerbated due to the additional Cd stress. The oxygen delivery systems could not provide enough oxygen to cover Cd-induced elevated metabolic demands at high temperatures. Interestingly| cardiac performance (measured as the heart rate and hemolymph supply to tissues) rose to a similar extent in control and Cd-exposed oysters with warming indicating that cardiac output was unable to compensate for elevated energy demand in Cd-exposed oysters. Together with the literature data on metal-induced reduction of ventilatory capacity| these findings suggest that synergistic effects of elevated temperatures and cadmium exposure led to oxygen limitation by impaired performance in oxygen supply through ventilation and circulation. Overall| cadmium exposure resulted in progressive hypoxemia in oysters at high temperatures| suggesting that the thermal tolerance window is narrowed in marine ectotherms inhabiting polluted areas compared with pristine environments. 8807,2008,4,3,Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming,[1] There remains uncertainty in the projected climate change over the 21st century| in part because of the range of responses to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in current global climate models (GCMs). The representation of potential changes in the form of a probability density function (PDF) is increasingly sought for applications. This article presents a method of estimating PDFs for projections based on the "pattern scaling'' technique| which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the standardized regional change. A mathematical framework for the problem is developed| which includes a joint probability distribution for the product of these two factors. Several simple approaches are considered for representing the factors by PDFs using GCM results| allowing model weighting. The four-parameter beta distribution is found to provide a smooth PDF that can match the mean and range of GCM results| allowing skewness when appropriate. A beta representation of the range in global warming consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report is presented. The method is applied to changes in Australian temperature and precipitation| under the A1B scenario of concentrations| using results from 23 GCMs in the CMIP3 database. Statistical results| including percentiles and threshold exceedences| are compared for the case of southern Australian temperature change in summer. For the precipitation example| central Australian winter rainfall| the usual linear scaling assumption produces a net change PDF that extends to unphysically large decreases. This is avoided by assuming an exponential relationship between percentage decreases in rainfall and warming. 1089,2008,2,4,Can long-distance migratory birds adjust to the advancement of spring by shortening migration distance? The response of the pied flycatcher to latitudinal photoperiodic variation,Many organisms use day length as a cue for synchronizing their life cycles with seasonal changes in environmental productivity. Under rapid climate change| however| responses to day length may become maladaptive| and photo-responsive organisms may only be able to evade increasingly unsuitable habitats if they can accommodate to a wide range of photoperiodic conditions. A previous experiment showed that the pied flycatcher| Ficedula hypoleuca| a Palaearctic-Afrotropical migratory bird| would strongly advance the timing of spring migration and reproductive maturation if it shifted its wintering area from sub-Saharan Africa to the Mediterranean region. However| it is unknown whether this marked response to latitudinal variation in photoperiodic conditions is continuous over the entire range of potential wintering areas| and if a shortening of migration distance would be an effective mechanism to adjust the timing of migration to rapidly changing climatic conditions. Here| we experimentally show that a moderate northward displacement of the pied flycatcher's current wintering grounds by 10 degrees would result in a clear advancement of the termination of prenuptial moult and the initiation of spring migratory activity and gonadal growth. However| we found no further advancement under conditions simulating higher wintering latitudes| suggesting the existence of a critical photoperiodic threshold or a steep gradual response within a narrow geographical range between 10 degrees and 20 degrees northern latitude. Because habitat conditions in this area are deteriorating rapidly| the potential for pied flycatchers to adjust their life cycle to changing climatic conditions by shortening the migration distance may be limited in the future. 1279,2008,2,4,Can the gold coast beaches withstand extreme events?,The Gold Coast sandy beaches of Queensland (Australia) are exposed to energetic wave conditions. Storms| particularly tropical cyclones| have a high potential of destruction. The Gold Coast has not experienced excessive erosive events over the past 30 years. However| some climate indicators suggest that cyclone frequency is likely to increase in response to global climate change within the near future. Over a 2-month period in early 2006| beach surveys were undertaken with a theodolite total station at four different sites. Offshore wave conditions were provided by SWAN regional wave modelling. During this study| the Gold Coast was exposed to three major storms| the first one being the second most energetic over the past 30 years. Results show a substantial variability of the beach response to these events along the Gold Coast| and that engineering structures do not have marked effects. Easterly swells have the greatest impact on the Gold Coast sub-aerial beach morphology. When low wave-energy conditions prevail| the southern Gold Coast beaches recover more quickly than the northern ones| as they are sheltered from high SE waves and draw advantage from the artificial sand bypassing system. Nevertheless| the data show that the Gold Coast beaches are exceedingly fragile. For instance| the early March decadal event considerably weakened the beaches| which resulted in surprisingly high erosion rates all along the Gold Coast during the two following annual wave events. This study suggests that the Gold Coast beaches would not be able to withstand the impact of an increased frequency of extreme events similar in scale to those of 1967. 9002,2008,2,4,Capelin migrations and climate change - a modelling analysis,The capelin is a small pelagic fish that performs long distance migrations. It is a key species in the Barents Sea ecosystem and its distribution is highly climate dependent. Here we use an individual based model to investigate consequences of global warming on capelin distribution and population dynamics. The model relies on input on physics and plankton from a biophysical ocean model| and the entire life cycle of capelin including spawning of eggs| larval drift and adult movement is simulated. Spawning day and adult movement strategies are adapted by a genetic algorithm. Spawning has to take place in designated near-shore spawning areas. The output generated by the model is capelin migration/distribution and population dynamics. We present simulations with present day climate and a future climate scenario. For the present climate the model evolves a spatial distribution resembling typical spatial dynamics of capelin with the coasts of Northern Norway and Murman as the main spawning areas. For the climate change simulation| the capelin is predicted to shift spawning eastwards and also utilize new spawning areas along Novaya Zemlya. There is also a shift in the adult distribution towards the north eastern part of the Barents Sea and earlier spawning associated with the warming. 8405,2008,2,4,Carbon and nitrogen cycles in European ecosystems respond differently to global warming,The global climate is predicted to become significantly warmer over the next century. This will affect ecosystem processes and the functioning of semi natural and natural ecosystems in many parts of the world. However| as various ecosystem processes may be affected to a different extent| balances between different ecosystem processes as well as between different ecosystems may shift and lead to major unpredicted changes. In this study four European shrubland ecosystems along a north-south temperature gradient were experimentally warmed by a novel nighttime warming technique. Biogeochemical cycling of both carbon and nitrogen was affected at the colder sites with increased carbon uptake for plant growth as well as increased carbon loss through soil respiration. Carbon uptake by plant growth was more sensitive to warming than expected from the temperature response across the sites while carbon loss through soil respiration reacted to warming in agreement with the overall Q10 and response functions to temperature across the sites. Opposite to carbon| the nitrogen mineralization was relatively insensitive to the temperature increase and was mainly affected by changes in soil moisture. The results suggest that C and N cycles respond asymmetrically to warming| which may lead to progressive nitrogen limitation and thereby acclimation in plant production. This further suggests that in many temperate zones nitrogen deposition has to be accounted for| not only with respect to the impact on water quality through increased nitrogen leaching where N deposition is high| but also in predictions of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems under future climatic conditions. Finally the results indicate that on the short term the above-ground processes are more sensitive to temperature changes than the below ground processes. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8706,2008,3,3,Carbon capture and storage-desirability from a risk management point of view,Environmental and safety risks related to carbon capture and storage concern leakages and accidental releases during transport and geological storage. Based on principles widely accepted in the EU and beyond in the discussion about the where's and why's of nuclear waste repositories| this paper discusses the desirability of carbon capture and storage from a risk management point of view| focusing on environmental risks on the global level (climate change). On this basis it is concluded that| if the key energy issue of coming generations| not just in Europe but all around the world| is not the abundance of fossil resources but rather an unacceptably high probability of global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions| then the solution should not include any massive hiding of the emissions but entirely focus on the avoidance based on improved technology in power plants and other industrial installations. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8503,2008,3,2,Carbon credit and emission trading: Anaerobic wastewater treatment,The concept of carbon credit arose out of increasing awareness of the need to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to combat global warming which was formalized in the Kyoto Protocol. In addition to contribution to sustainable development with energy recovery in the form of methane. carbon credits can be claimed by application of advanced anaerobic processes in wastewater treatment for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. As anaerobic granular systems are capable of handling high organic loadings concomitant with high strength wastewater and short hydraulic retention time| they could render much more carbon credits than other conventional anaerobic systems. Granular anaerobic processes have become an attractive choice of treatment technology especially for high strength wastewaters| considering the fact that in addition to efficient waste degradation| the carbon credits can be used to generate revenue and to finance the project. This paper presents a scenario on emission reduction based on a methane recovery and utilisation project. An example analysis on emission reduction and the future trend is also outlined. (C) 2008 Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9277,2008,3,4,CARBON DIOXIDE AS THE REPLACEMENT FOR SYNTHETIC REFRIGERANTS IN MOBILE AIR CONDITIONING,Based on Kyoto Protocol and the decisions of European Commission R134a refrigerant| currently| dominant | used in mobile air conditioning systems| needs to be phased-out. At present automotive|e industry| looks at carbon dioxide (CO2; R744) as the refrigerant of the future. Apart from the environmental benefits discussed are the technical characteristics of carbon dioxide refrigeration cycle and mobile air-conditioning systems in comparison to R134a refrigerant. Analyzed are challenges emerged from the use of CO2 as refrigerant and improvement opportunities in regards to increase of the system performance and efficiency. Particular attention is dedicated to the advantages of CO2 utilization in prospective automotive heat pump systems. 9015,2008,3,3,Carbon dioxide efflux from soil with poultry litter applications in conventional and conservation tillage systems in northern Alabama,Increased CO2 release from soils resulting from agricultural practices such as tillage has generated concerns about contributions to global warming| Maintaining current levels of soil C and/or sequestering additional C in soils are important mechanisms to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere through production agriculture. We conducted a study in northern Alabama from 2003 to 2006 to measure CO2 efflux and C storage in long-term tilled and non-tilled cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) plots receiving poultry litter or ammonium nitrate (AN). Treatments were established in 1996 on a Decatur silt loam (clayey| kaolinitic thermic| Typic Paleudults) and consisted of conventional-tillage (CT)| mulch-tillage (MT)| and no-tillage (NT) systems with winter rye [Secale cereale (L.)] cover cropping and AN and poultry litter (PL) as nitrogen sources. Cotton was planted in 2003| 2004| and 2006. Corti was planted in 2005 as a rotation crop using a no-till planter in all plots| and no fertilizer was applied. Poultry litter application resulted in higher CO2 emission from soil compared with AN application regardless of tillage system. In 2003 and 2006| CT (4.39 and 3.40 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)| respectively) and MT (4.17 and 3.39 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)| respectively) with| PL at 100 kg N ha(-1) (100 PLN) recorded significantly higher CO2 efflux compared with NT with 100 PLN (2.84 and 2.47 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)| respectively). Total soil C at 0- to 15-cm depth was not affected by tillage but significantly increased with PL application and winter rye cover cropping. In general| cotton| produced with NT conservation tillage in conjunction with PL and winter rye cover cropping reduced CO2 emissions and sequestered more soil C compared with control treatments. 1323,2008,3,3,Carbon dioxide emissions and carbonation sensors,The gases with higher heat capacities than those of O-2 and N-2 cause greenhouse effects. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas associated with global climate change. At the present time| coal is responsible for 30 - 40% of world CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. There was a higher correlation between the amount of carbon dioxide emission and percentage of carbon in the fuel for all equations. The squares of correlation coefficients were 0.9999| 0.9978| and 0.9995. The gas sensing characteristics of MgO and CaO as the CO2 gas sensors and CO2 emission capacities selected carbonaceous fuels have been investigated. It was found that increasing the percentage of carbon in carbonaceous fuel caused CO2 emission increase. Carbonation is a stabilization of CO2 by solidification process. The availability of a CO2 fixation technology would serve as insurance in case global warming causes severe restrictions on CO2 emissions. In order to prevent rapid climate change| it will be necessary to stabilize CO2 as carbonate by the carbonation process. The carbonation was carried out using MgO and CaO as CO2 sensors. The yield of carbonation increased with increasing temperature. The rate of carbonation conversion sharply increased in the initial 20 min and then reduced and reached a plateau value after about 40 min. The carbonation conversion with MgO is higher than that of CaO. 8623,2008,3,2,Carbon dioxide flux as affected by tillage and irrigation in soil converted from perennial forages to annual crops,Among greenhouse gases. carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the most significant contributors to regional and global warming as well as Climatic change. A field study was conducted to (i) determine the effect of soil Characteristics resulting from changes in soil management practices on CO2 flux from the soil surface to the atmosphere in transitional land from perennial forages to annual crops| and (ii) develop empirical relationships that predict CO2 flux from soil temperature and soil water content. The CO2 flux| soil temperature (T-s)| volumetric soil water content (0(v)) were measured every 1-2 weeks in no-till (NT) and conventional till (CT) malt barley and undisturbed soil grass-alfalfa (UGA) systems in a Lihen sandy loam soil (sandy| mixed| frigid Entic Haplustoll) under irrigated and non-irrigated conditions in western North Dakota. Soil air-filled porosity (a) was calculated from total soil porosity and 0(v) measurements. Significant differences in CO2 fluxes between kind management practices (irrigation and tillage) were observed on some measurement dates. Higher CO2 fluxes were detected in CT plots than in NT and UGA treatments immediately after rainfall or irrigation. Soil CO2 fluxes increased with increasing soil moisture (R-2 = 0.15. P < 0.01) while an exponential relationship was found between CO2 emission and T-s (R-2 = 0.59). Using a stepwise regression analysis procedure| a significant multiple regression equation was developed between CO2 flux and 0(v)| T-s(CO2 flux = e(-3.477+0.123T)s(+6.3810)v; R-2 = 0.68 P <= 0.01). Not surprisingly| soil temperature was a driving factor in the equuation| which accounted for approximately 59% in variation of CO2 flux. It was concluded that less intensive tillage| such as no-till or strip tillage along with careful irrigation management will reduce soil CO2 evolution from land being converted from perennial forages to annual crops. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 9268,2008,3,3,CARBON DIOXIDE HIDRATION: MECHANISTIC LESSONS FROM ENZYMATIC SYSTEMS,Carbon dioxide is arguably one of the most significant challenges for bioremediation| given its involvement in global warming. One reaction that would remove CO(2) from the atmosphere is hydration to bicarbonate. Living organisms have found a way to efficiently catalyze this reaction| employing the enzyme carbonic anhydrase| which employs a tetrahedral zinc active site. Here| we employ density functional (DFT) calculations in order to understand why nature has chosen this particular metal and this particular coordination geometry for CO(2) hydration. We ask the question whether other metals| such as iron or cooper| would be able to catalyze the same reaction in coordination environments such as seen in other metalloproteins. We find that the key of the carbonic anhydrase reaction lies not so much in the choice of metal| as in geometrical elements which allow the metal-bound carbonate to become a proper product. 8571,2008,3,2,Carbon Dioxide Sequestration: A Solution to a Global Problem,Human and industrial development over the past hundred years has led to a huge increase in fossil fuel consumption and CO(2) emissions| causing a dramatic increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration. This increased CO(2) is believed to be responsible for a significant rise in global temperature over the past several decades. Global-scale climate modeling suggests that the temperature increase will continue| at least over the next few hundred years| leading to glacial melting and rising sea levels. Increased atmospheric CO(2) also leads to ocean acidification| which will have drastic consequences for marine ecosystems. In an attempt to solve these problems| many have proposed the large-scale sequestration of CO(2) from our atmosphere. This introductory article presents a summary of some of the evidence linking increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentration to global warming and ocean acidification and our efforts to stem this rise though CO(2) sequestration. 8492,2008,3,3,Carbon protection and fire risk reduction: toward a full accounting of forest carbon offsets,Management of forests for carbon uptake is an important tool in the effort to slow the increase in atmospheric CO2 and global warming. However| some current policies governing forest carbon credits actually promote avoidable CO2 release and punish actions that would increase long-term carbon storage. In fire-prone forests| management that reduces the risk of catastrophic carbon release resulting from stand-replacing wildfire is considered to be a CO2 source| according to current accounting practices| even though such management may actually increase long-term carbon storage. Examining four of the largest wildfires in the US in 2002| we found that| for forest land that experienced catastrophic stand-replacing fire| prior thinning would have reduced CO2 release from live tree biomass by as much as 98%. Altering carbon accounting practices for forests that have historically experienced frequent| low-severity fire could provide an incentive for forest managers to reduce the risk of catastrophic fire and associated large carbon release events. 9044,2008,3,4,Carbon sequestration as part of the global warming solution - Using software to combine environmental stewardship with economic benefit,The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of what carbon sequestration is| how forests are used as natural carbon sinks and how selling carbon credits is proving to be a potentially new revenue stream for organizations and other entities managing large tracks of forested area. Finally| this paper will show how Remsoft's spatial planning and modeling software system enables efficient and effective management of forests as carbon sinks. 8818,2008,2,4,Carbon sequestration in soils of cool temperate regions (introductory and editorial),The cool temperate climate| dominance of perennial land use| and relatively large proportion of peat and organically rich soils| make the northern European regions to have a large potential of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However| with predicted global warming soils in these areas may become sources of atmospheric CO(2). Quantitative and reliable assessment methods and understanding of the spatial variability of SOC pools are required to make accurate mean estimate of available C and integrate variability into predictive models of SOC reserves and sequestration potential. Advanced analytical methods such as near-infrared spectroscopy and carbon isotope techniques can be used to estimate retention time and C turnover rates in soils. The rehabilitation of peat lands has shown a potential for SOC sequestration ranging from 25 to 45 gCm(-2) yr(-1) in Scandinavian countries. The potential of SOC sequestration in agricultural and forestry ecosystems depends on the land use and management practice adopted. Furthermore| the proven land management practices (e.g. conservation tillage| reduced soil erosion| restoring wetlands and degraded lands) coupled with improved cultivation practices (e.g. judicious fertilizer use| crop rotations and cover crops) can make the soil of this region as C sink. 9201,2008,3,3,Carbon stock and carbon dioxide emissions as affected by soil management systems in southern Brazil,Carbon (C) addition through crop residues (residue-C)| C dioxide emission (CO2-C) and the soil C stock (soil-C) are components of the C cycle in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. This 18-year study was conducted to identify agricultural practices that could potentially increase C retention in the soil and lessen global warming trends. The three C pools (residue-C| CO2-C and soil-C) under different tillage systems (CT-conventional tillage and NT-no tillage) and cropping systems (O/M-oat (Avena strigosa Schreb)/maize (Zea mays L.) and VIM-vetch (Vicia sativa L.)/maize)) were evaluated and the CO2-C/[residue-C+soil-C] quotient was proposed as C retention index (CRI)| where low values indicate a high capacity of the management system to keep C in the soil. The CO2-C emissions were measured for 17 months (between November 2002 and March 2004)| sampling of aboveground residues of cover crops and harvest indexes of maize were used to quantify C addition by cropping systems| and soil-C stocks (0-0.2 m) were evaluated in 2003. The soil temperature (0.05 m) and grauimetric water content (0-0.05| 0.05-0.1 and 0.1-0.2 in) were also monitored from May 2003 onwards. In comparison to 1985| the C balance was negative in the soil under CT(-0.31 t ha(-1) yr(-1) for O/Mand -0.10 t ha(-1) yr(-1) for V/M). Onthe other hand| the C balance was positive in NT soil| but only under V/M (+0. 15 t ha(-1) yr(-1)) due to the greater C addition by crop residues. The CO2-C emission was related to the soil temperature (r > 0.85). The total CO2-C emission varied from 3.6 to 4.0 t ha-(1) and was not affected by the soil management systems. However| the CRI allowed a clear discrimination of the soil management systems to keep C in the soil. The C retention potential increased in the following order: CT O/M < CT V/M < NT O/M < NT V/M. Results reinforced the importance of symbiotically-fixed N by legume crops for C accumulation in untilled soils due to greater biomass production by succeeding graminaceae. 9252,2008,3,3,Carbon Stock Assessment of a Mangrove Ecosystem in San Juan| Batangas,In the context of climate change and global warming| carbon sequestration receives a considerable attention now. In the latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)| global mean temperature has dramatically increased over the past decades. There is also mounting evidence that this increase will remain as problems on landuse change and industrial emissions continue to worsen. Among the GHGs| CO(2) is the most abundant. Forest ecosystems such as mangroves play a significant role in the climate change problem because they serve as sinks of atmospheric. Great attention is focused on tropical forests to offset carbon emissions. Thus| this study was intended to assess the carbon storage potential of a mangrove forest in San Juan Batangas. A nested plot method developed by ICRAF-ASB Program and allometric equations developed by Komiyama et. al. (2005) were employed to estimate the above-ground biomass and carbon density of the two stands: Rhizophora-dominated stand in Barangay Poctol; and Avicennia-dominated stand in Barangay Catmon. Both Rhizophora and Avicennia dominated stand exhibited good carbon storage potential hence proper forest management is essential to sustain and improve its capacity to help mitigate climate change. 9016,2008,3,3,Carbon-negative biofuels,Current Kyoto-based approaches to reducing the earth's greenhouse gas problem involve looking for ways to reduce emissions. But these are palliative at best| and at worst will allow the problem to get out of hand. It is only through sequestration of atmospheric carbon that the problem can be solved. Carbon-negative biofuels represent the first potentially huge assault on the problem| in ways that are already technically feasible and practicable. The key to carbon negativity is to see it not as technically determined but as an issue of strategic choice| whereby farmers and fuel producers can decide how much carbon to return to the soil. Biochar amendment to the soil not only sequesters carbon but also enhances the fertility and vitality of the soil. The time is approaching when biofuels will be carbon negative by definition| and| as such| they will sweep away existing debates over their contribution to the solution of global warming. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8722,2008,3,1,Carbonation of alkaline paper mill waste to reduce CO2 greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere,The global warming of Earth's near-surface| air and oceans in recent decades is a direct consequence of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere such as CO2| CH4| N2O and CFCs. The CO2 emissions contribute approximately 60% to this climate change. This study investigates experimentally the aqueous carbonation mechanisms of an alkaline paper mill waste containing about 55 wt% portlandite (Ca(OH)(2)) as a possible mineralogical CO2 sequestration process. The overall carbonation reaction includes the following steps: (I) Ca release from portlandite dissolution| (2) CO2 dissolution in water and (3) CaCO3 precipitation. This CO2 sequestration mechanism was supported by geochemical modelling of final solutions using PHREEQC software| and observations by scanning electron microscope and X-ray diffraction of final reaction products. According to the experimental protocol| the system proposed Would favour the total capture of approx. 218 kg Of CO2 into stable calcite/ton of paper waste| independently of initial CO2 pressure. The final product from the carbonation process is a calcite (ca. 100wt%)-water dispersion. Indeed| the total captured CO2 mineralized as calcite could be Stored in degraded soils or even used for diverse industrial applications. This result demonstrates the possibility of using the alkaline liquid-solid waste for CO2 mitigation and reduction of greenhouse effect gases into the atmosphere. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9250,2008,3,3,Carbonisation and gasification of bagasse for effective utilisation of sugarcane biomass,Two types of carbonisation plant and one gasification plant have been developed and tested for effective utilisation of the products. The importance of by-products is increasing| as global warming is now a significant problem| and biomass resources can be used to alleviate the energy shortage and minimise the emission of greenhouse gases. Carbonisation of bagasse can add new value for production of energy and other materials| so continuous type carbonisers were developed. The bagasse becomes charcoal by heating in the absence of oxygen for about 30 minutes at 400 to 900 degrees C. Bagasse charcoal was used as a soil improvement material| absorbent| deodorant and so on. A large volume of burnable gas was obtained from bagasse or its charcoal by the developed gasifier. The plant turns to a carboniser by exclusion of air. Therefore| bagasse can be used as a value-added resource for energy and other materials by carbonisation and gasification. 1350,2008,5,4,Carbonyl sulfide in air extracted from a South Pole ice core: a 2000 year record,In this study| we present carbonyl sulfide (COS) measurements from an ice core drilled near South Pole| East Antarctica (SPRESSO). The samples are from 135-291 m| with estimated mean COS ages ranging from 278 to 2155 years before present (defined as 2000 C.E.). When combined with the previous records of COS from Antarctic ice cores and firn air| the current data provide a continuous record of COS extending beyond the last two millennia. The general agreement between ice cores| firn air| and modern air measurements supports the idea that polar ice is a valid archive for paleoatmospheric COS. The average COS mixing ratio of the SPRESSO data set is (331 +/- 18) ppt (parts per trillion in mol/mol| +/- 1 sigma| n=100)| excluding 6 outliers. These data confirm earlier firn air and ice core measurements indicating that the late 20th century COS levels of 500 ppt are greatly increased over preindustrial levels and represent the highest atmospheric levels over the past 2000 years. The data also provide evidence of climate-related variability on centennial time-scales| with relative maxima at the peaks of Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age. There is evidence for a long-term increasing trend in COS of 1.8 ppt per 100 years. Further ice core studies will be needed to determine whether this trend reflects secular variability in atmospheric COS| or a slow post-depositional chemical loss of COS in the ice core. 9193,2008,5,4,Caribbean coral tracks Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and past hurricane activity,It is highly debated whether global warming contributed to the strong hurricane activity observed during the last decade. The crux of the recent debate is the limited length of the reliable instrumental record that exacerbates the detection of possible long-term changes in hurricane activity| which naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO| itself a major mode of climate variability| remains also poorly understood because of limited data. Here| we present the first coral-based proxy record (8110) that clearly captures multidecadal variations in the AMO and the hurricane activity. Our record| obtained from a brain coral situated in the Atlantic hurricane domain| is equally sensitive to variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and seawater delta O-18| with the latter being strongly linked to precipitation| by this means amplifying large-scale climate signals in coral delta O-18. The SST and precipitation signals in the coral provide the longest| thus far| continuous proxy-based record of hurricane activity that interestingly exhibits a long-term increase over the last century. As multidecadal SST variations in this region are closely related to the AMO| this study raises new possibilities to extend the limited observations and to gain new insights into the mechanisms underlying the AMO and long-term hurricane variations. 8539,2008,2,3,Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge,A global vegetation and hydrology model (LPJmL) was applied to quantify the contributions of changing precipitation| temperature| atmospheric CO(2) content| land use and irrigation to worldwide trends in 20th century river discharge ( Q). Consistently with observations| Q decreased in parts of Africa| central/southern Asia and south-eastern Europe| and increased especially in parts of North America and western Asia. Based on the CRU TS2.1 climatology| total global Q rose over 1901-2002 ( trend| 30.8 km(3) a(-2)| equaling 7.7%)| due primarily to increasing precipitation (individual effect| + 24.7 km(3) a(-2)). Global warming (-3.1)| rising CO(2) (+ 4.4)| land cover changes (+ 5.9) and irrigation (-1.1) also had discernible effects. However| sign and magnitude of trends exhibited pronounced decadal variability and differed among precipitation forcing datasets. Since recent trends in these and other drivers of Q are mainly anthropogenic| we conclude that humans exert an increasing influence on the global water cycle. Citation: Gerten| D.| S. Rost| W. von Bloh| and W. Lucht (2008)| Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 35| L20405| doi: 10.1029/2008GL035258. 9199,2008,2,4,Causes of November Cooling of the 1980s-1990s in European Russia,In the 1980s-1990s| a widespread November cooling occurred in European Russia against the background of global warming. Analysis showed that the observed cooling was caused by anomalous cold advection at the eastern edge of the area of positive sea-level pressure and geopotential anomaly centered over Scandinavia and the Gulf of Bothnia. This November circulation pattern is related to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation in the preceding winter. It is concluded that the observed November cooling was caused by the prevalence of the positive phase of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in the last two decades of the 20th century. 9107,2008,2,4,Cellular automata: Simulating alpine tundra vegetation dynamics in response to global warming,This study attempts to model alpine tundra vegetation dynamics in a tundra region in the Qinghai Province of China in response to global warming. We used Raster-based cellular automata and a Geographic Information System to study the spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. The cellular automata model is implemented with IDRISI's Multi-Criteria Evaluation functionality to simulate the spatial patterns of vegetation change assuming certain scenarios of global mean temperature increase over time. The Vegetation Dynamic Simulation Model calculates a probability surface for each vegetation type| and then combines all vegetation types into a composite map| determined by the maximum likelihood that each vegetation type should distribute to each raster unit. With scenarios of global temperature increase of I to 3 degrees C| the vegetation types such as Dry Kobresia Meadow and Dry Potentilla Shrub that are adapted to warm and dry conditions tend to become more dominant in the study area. 8799,2008,5,4,Cenozoic trace fossils of the Cruziana| Zoophycos and Nereites ichnofacies from the Fuegian Andes| Argentina,The systematics| paleoenvironmental implications| and diversity of Cenozoic trace fossils from the Fuegian Andes are studied. The relatively complete Paleocene-Miocene stratigraphic column includes ichnoassemblages of the Cruziana (Leticia Formation| late Middle Eocene)| Zoophycos and Nereites (Early Eocene-Early Miocene turbidite systems) ichnofacies. The last two ichnoasemblages contain the only known deep marine Cenozoic trace fossils in Argentina. The late Middle Eocene Leticia Formation represents a transgressive-regressive cycle and bears the ichnogenera Curvolithus| Diplocraterion| Gyrochorte| Rosselia| Patagonichnus| Asterosoma| Palaeophycus| Paradictyodora| Planolites| Rhizocorallium| Schaubcylindrichinus| Taenidium| and Teichichnus. Ichnogenera of the Early Eocene-Early Miocene turbidite systems include Scolicia| Chondrites| Gyrophyllites| Nereites| Phycodes| Phycosiphon| Phymatoderma| Stelloglyphus| Zoophycos| Ophiomorpha and graphoglyptids. Graphoglyptids are dominated by Paleodictyon| Helicolithus| Helminthorhaphe| Desmograpton and Megagrapton. They are recorded in thin-bedded turbidites and mudstones (lobe deposits) and assigned to the Paleodictyon ichnosubfacies (Nereites ichnofacies). Ophiomorpha rudis and O.. annulata are common at the contact between thick-bedded turbidites and mudstones| with abundant plant fragments. In sandrich| proximal channel-lobe deposits| they characterize the Ophiomorpha rudis ichnosubfacies (Nereites ichnofacies). Scolicia prisca and Nereites isp. are common in rippled fine-grained sandstones interbedded with thin mudstones. Zoophycos ispp. are dominant in slope mudstones with synsedimentary slumping. The maximum ichnodiversity is recorded in the late Middle-Late Eocene; which is concomitant with a marked cooling trend. The basal Oligocene displays an abrupt drop in diversity| whereas the Early Miocene shows a moderate diversity. These data do not support the alleged control of increased Eocene ichnodiversity by global warming during the Cenozoic thermal maximum. Specialized food competition| particularly for the graphoglyptid organisms| and generalized oligotrophy seem to offer a better explanation. 9257,2008,3,4,CF3CF=CH2 and (Z)-CF3CF=CHF: temperature dependent OH rate coefficients and global warming potentials,Rate coefficients over the temperature range 206-380 K are reported for the gas-phase reaction of OH radicals with 2|3|3|3- tetrafluoropropene (CF3CF=CH2)| k(1)(T)| and 1|2|3|3|3-pentafluoropropene ((Z)-CF3CF=CHF)| k(2)(T)| which are major components in proposed substitutes for HFC-134a (CF3CFH2) in mobile air-conditioning units. Rate coefficients were measured under pseudo-first-order conditions in OH using pulsed-laser photolysis to produce OH and laser-induced fluorescence to detect it. Rate coefficients were found to be independent of pressure between 25 and 600 Torr (He| N-2). For CF3CF=CH2| the rate coefficients| within the measurement uncertainty| are given by the Arrhenius expression k(1)(T) = (1.26 +/- 0.11) x 10(-12) exp[(-35 +/- 10)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) where k(1)(296 K) = (1.12 +/- 0.09) x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). For (Z)-CF3CF=CHF| the rate coefficients are given by the the rate coefficients are given by the non-Arrhenius expression k(2)(T) = (1.6 +/- 0.2) x 10(-18) T-2 exp[(655 +/- 50)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) where k(2)(296 K) = (1.29 +/- 0.06) x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). Over the temperature range most relevant to the atmosphere| 200-300 K| the Arrhenius expression k(2)(T) = (7.30 +/- 0.7) x 10(-13) exp[(165 +/- 20)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) reproduces the measured rate coefficients very well and can be used in atmospheric model calculations. The quoted uncertainties in the rate coefficients are 2 sigma (95% confidence interval) and include estimated systematic errors. The global warming potentials for CF3CF=CH2 and (Z)-CF3CF=CHF were calculated to be <4.4 and <3.6| respectively| for the 100 year time horizon using infrared absorption cross sections measured in this work| and atmospheric lifetimes of 12 and 10 days that are based solely on OH reactive loss. 8949,2008,2,4,CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from a forest-alas ecosystem in the permafrost taiga forest region| eastern Siberia| Russia,'Alases' are mature thermokarst depressions covered by grassland distributed in taiga forests in central Yakutia| eastern Siberia| following thermokarst formation initiated in early Holocene. Alases are important land-cover class in the central Yakutia lowland occupying 17% of the total land area. CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes were measured temporally in a typical alas which have a pond at the center during the growing season of two years. Seven monitoring plots represented various vegetation types: a larch forest (F)| a dry grassland (DG)| four wet grasslands (WG) flooded temporarily or continuously| and a pond surface (P) flooded continuously without vegetation. The pond flooding area reached its maximum just after snow-melting and decreased during the summer. The F and DG plots were small CH(4) sinks. The wet plots (including WG and P) were large CH(4) sources (cumulative value of growing season: 17 to 864 kg CH(4)-C ha(-1))| and emission rates vary drastically depending on flooding conditions. All plots were slight sources or sinks of N(2)O except for the WG plots (0.16 to 1.7 kg N(2)O-N ha(-1)) where peak emissions were observed after the flooding ended. The global warming potentials (time horizon of 100 years) of the cumulative N(2)O emissions from the plots were lower than those of each CH(4) emissions. Estimated total CH(4) emission from the whole WG area (7.93 ha) accounted for 88% of the emission from the whole alas (28.9 ha). The current permafrost-taiga region in central Yakutia could be a net CH(4) source owing to the presence of alases. 1064,2008,2,3,Change in ozone air pollution over Chicago associated with global climate change,This study uses statistical downscaling to estimate the impact of future climate change on air quality. We employ historical observations of surface ozone (O(3)) over the Chicago area| large-scale climate variables from the National Center for Environmental Protection (NCEP) reanalysis data| and climate projections from three GCMs (GFDL| PCM| and HadCM3)| driven by two SRES emission scenarios (A1FI and B1 for GFDL and PCM; A2 and B1 for HadCM3). This approach calculates historic relationships between meteorology and O(3)| and considers how future meteorology would affect ground-level O(3) if these relationships remain constant. Ozone mixing ratios over Chicago are found to be most sensitive to surface temperature| horizontal surface winds| surface relative humidity| incoming solar radiation| and cloud cover. Considering the change in O(3) due to global climate change alone| summertime (June| July| and August) mean mixing ratios over Chicago are projected to increase by 6 - 17 ppb by the end of the century| depending on assumptions about global economic growth and choice of GCM. Changes are greater under higher climate emissions scenarios and more sensitive climate models (e. g. 24 ppb for GFDL A1FI as compared to 2 ppb for PCM B1). However| this approach does not take into account changes in O(3)-precursor emissions nor changes in local and lake-effect meteorology| which could combine with climate change to either enhance or diminish the projected change in local mixing ratios. Statistical downscaling is performed with the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM v. 4.1| a publicly available scientific analysis and decision-support tool. 8500,2008,2,3,Change in the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon Circulation due to the CO(2) Increase in IPCC AR4 CGCMs,In order to investigate the change in the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) caused by an increase in the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2))| nine coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) designed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are chosen| and their simulations are analyzed for the 20th century (20C3M) and CO(2)-quadrupling scenario (1pctto4x) experiments. The summer (JJA) mean climatology for several variables is analyzed in order to investigate the mean field change in the WNPSM circulation and the cause of this change. By performing the JJA mean analysis| we found that the rainfall over the WNPSM region| especially summer rainfall| increases with the CO(2) concentration| which results from the enhanced conditional instability caused by the warm sea-surface temperature (SST) and increased moisture| despite a slight weakening of the low-level convergence. On the other hand| to examine the change in the interannual variability of the WNPSM| we performed a composite analysis of the differences between the strong and the weak monsoon years with respect to a newly defined WNPSM index. In the precipitation analysis| it was clarified that the monsoon variability would increase with global warming over the WNPSM region. The SST analysis revealed that the lag relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and WNPSM would be weakened with an increase in the CO(2) concentration| implying that prediction of the WNPSM would become slightly difficult. On the basis of global warming scenario results obtained from the IPCC AR4 models| it is concluded that both the intensity and variability of the WNPSM would increase with CO(2) concentration. 8634,2008,2,2,Changes in extreme temperatures of Australasian summer simulated by CCAM under global warming| and the roles of winds and land-sea contrasts,Extreme summer temperatures have a significant impact on Australasia| and these are expected to intensify with global warming. The simulation of these extremes| particularly near coasts| is limited by the modest resolution of global climate models such as the CSIRO Mk3.0. We examine the temperatures simulated by the regional model CCAM| at a resolution of around 0.5 degrees| downscaled from Mk3.0 simulations. Extremes for three periods| from monthly to decadal| are presented. The distribution of daily temperatures in summer is characterised by a large variation of standard deviation (SD) across the region| peaking along the southern Australian coast. The distribution is positively skewed along most coasts| and negatively skewed in the interior. There are strong correlations with daily winds. The projected mean warming over the 21st century for the A1B greenhouse gas scenario reaches 3 degrees C in the Australian interior| but barely half that on the south coast| as anticipated from the smaller rate of warming of the surrounding seas. There is rather little moderation of warming on the cast and west coasts| however. Warming over New Zealand and New Guinea is typically 2 degrees C| for both means and extremes| some 50 per cent larger than that of the oceans. The SD of temperature anomalies increases over much of Australia| while skewness increases on some coasts. Both SD and skewness decrease in the southeast. Changes in the extremes| relative to the means| relate to those in both measures. This is demonstrated using a beta distribution fit to local daily temperature distributions. At many location| changes in extremes cannot be accurately estimated from a simple shift of the distribution. Much of the pattern of change is related to the effect of wind variability over the enhanced land-sea contrasts| as shown using a simple model for the influence of wind. 8535,2008,2,4,Changes in extreme| cold-season synoptic precipitation events under global warming,We analyze regional climate model (RCM) simulations of daily| spatially distributed extreme precipitation events| using co-operative network observations and output from 10-year RCM simulations of present and future-scanario climates. We examine an Upper Mississippi River basin region during October-march for daily amounts that exceed the 99.95th percentile and that occure simultaneously at several observation sites or model grid points. For the observations and each simulation| nearly all such extreme regional events occur when a slow moving| cut-off-low system develops over the Rockies and Great Plains and steadily pumps moisture into the Upper mississippi region form the Gulf of Mexico. The threasold for the extreme events increases int eh future scenario by an amount similar to the increase in saturation specific humidity. The results suggest robust circulation behavior for such extremes in the face of climate change. Citation: Gutowski| W.J.| Jr.| S. S. Willis| J.C. Patton| B.R.J. Schwedler| R.W.Arritt| and E.S. Takle (2008)| Changes in extreme| cold-season synoptic precipitation events under global warming| Geophys. Res Lett.| 35| L20710| doi:10.1029/2008GL035516. 9189,2008,2,4,Changes in growth| internode distance and nutrient concentrations of the seagrass Halophila ovalis with exposure to sediment sulphice,Sulphide concentrations in estuarine sediments are likely to increase with increased organic matter fluxes (eutrophication) and increased temperatures (global warming). The short-term effects of sulphide on the growth| nutrition and morphology of the seagrass Halophila ovalis (R.Br.) Hook. f. were investigated in situ. Sediments within a H. ovalis meadow were enriched with Na2S equivalent to 0| 1.1 and 4.2 g m(-2). Sulphide diffusion tubes were estimated to increase sulphide concentrations by 1 to 4 mmol 1(-1)| concentrations typical of elevated sulphide measured in natural systems. Biomass| internode distance and growth rate (mg apex(-1) day(-1)) were determined| and plant material was analysed for soluble carbohydrate| carbon| nitrogen and phosphorus. Sulphide exposure caused significant reduction in growth (63 %)| average leaf weight (30 %) and internode distance (15 %). Above-ground tissue phosphorus concentration and internode distance were significant predictors of growth (R-2 = 0.63| p < 0.01). These results demonstrate the plasticity of H. ovalis in response to a short-term sulphide pulse| and may have implications for recovery from transient sulphide stress. 1173,2008,2,4,Changes in the composition of British butterfly assemblages over two decades,Changes in the abundance and distribution of individual species have been widely documented in Britain and other countries in recent decades| but little has been done to determine changes in community composition over broad geographic areas. Here| we studied species turnover in 51 butterfly assemblages in Britain since 1976| examining extinction and colonisation events together with variation in the abundances of the species. We showed that the species turnover that occurred over 20 years in Britain was associated with colonisation and extinction events and also with variability in the abundance of the species. These changes in community composition differed according to the habitat requirements of the species and their previous distributions| being more evident for habitat specialists and for southerly distributed species. Colonising species often became abundant components of the communities they joined| although this was more evident for generalist than for specialist species. The abundance of species following their arrival| increased with time since colonisation. Species turnover associated with southerly species expanding northwards is consistent with being a response to climate change. The results suggest that climate- and habitat-driven changes in the identity and abundance of species within communities are widespread| and probably ubiquitous. Similar changes are likely to be occurring in other groups of organisms that are similarly undertaking major range shifts associated with climate change. 8582,2008,2,3,Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model,This study investigates the possible changes that greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using scenario climate simulations carried out with a fully coupled high-resolution global general circulation model. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the twentieth century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution| seasonal modulation| and interannual variability| suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link TC occurrence with large-scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with reduced convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity| there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. Finally| the action of the TCs remains well confined to the tropical region and the peak of TC number remains equatorward of 20 degrees latitude in both hemispheres| notwithstanding the overall warming of the tropical upper ocean and the expansion poleward of warm SSTs.
8414,2008,2,3,Changes in Water Vapor Transport and the Production of Precipitation in the Eastern Fertile Crescent as a Result of Global Warming,This study investigates changes in the types of storm events occurring in the Fertile Crescent as a result of global warming. Regional climate model [fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)-Noah] simulations are run for the first and last five years of the twenty-first century following the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 experiment. Then the precipitation events are classified according to the water vapor fluxes that created them. At present most of the region's precipitation is from westerly water vapor fluxes. Results indicate that the region will increasingly get its precipitation from large events that are dominated by southerly water vapor fluxes. The increase in these events will occur in the transition seasons| especially autumn. 9136,2008,3,3,Changes in year-round air temperature and annual energy consumption in office building areas by urban heat-island countermeasures and energy-saving measures,This paper describes the effects of the installation of various countermeasures against urban heat-island (UHI) and energy-saving measures on UHI and global warming. A UHI and energy-consumption simulation model was developed by combining the one-dimensional meteorological canopy and building energy use models; further| the proposed model was expanded to evaluate the year-round air temperature and annual energy consumption. The simulation results showed that the humidification and albedo increase at building-wall surfaces reduced the total number of hours for which the air temperature was more than 30 degrees C during the daytime by more than 60 (h) per year. The UHI countermeasures reduced the annual energy-consumption despite causing a small increase during the winter period. However| they may result in certain unfavorable conditions for pedestrians. Energy-saving measures| on the other hand| reduce the total number of hours for which the air temperature is more than 30 degrees C by only a few hours per year. Thus| we demonstrate the effectiveness of the UHI countermeasures and measures against global warming by extending the calculation period from summer to an entire year. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8848,2008,2,4,Changes of the Hailuogou glacier| Mt. Gongga| China| against the background of global warming in the last several decades,Great change| associated with global warming| has occurred at the Hailuogou glacier| Mt. Gongga| China| since the early 20th century. Various data indicate that the glacier has retreated 1 822 m in the past 106 years| with an annual mean retreat of 17.2 m| and the front elevation has risen by 300 m since 1823. Comparison of glacier variations and temperature fluctuations in China and the Northern Hemisphere| over the last 100 years| indicates that glacier retreat stages occurred during the warm phase| and vice versa. Mass balance records during 1959/60-2003/04 have shown that the glacier has suffered a constant mass loss of snow and ice. The accumulated mass balance| -10.83 m water equivalent| indicates an annual mean value of -0.24 m water equivalent. The correlation between the mass balance and temperature is significant| which also indicates that climate warming is the crucial cause of glacier loss. Local hydrological and climatic data demonstrate that runoff from the glacier has been increasing both seasonally and annually. The correlation analysis and trend analysis indicate that ice and snow melted water is the main cause of an increase in the runoff. As the climate hag become warmer| changes in the glacier surface morphology have obviously occurred. These include a decrease in glacier thickness| enlargement of glacial caves| and reduction of the size of clefts on the glacier surface. The ablation period has lengthened and the ablation area has expanded. A variety of factors thus provide evidence that the Hailuogou glacier has suffered a rapid loss of snow and ice as a result of climatic warming. 9160,2008,2,3,Changes of the potential distribution area of French Mediterranean forests under global warming,This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify significant changes between present and future. The influence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO(2) increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantified. We modeled species growth with the help of a process-based model (MAIDEN)| previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE - MeteoFrance climate model| combined with an explicit increase in CO(2) atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production. Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time| after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet| these simulations| mainly based on climate| are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20th and 21st centuries| show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950m due to 2.5K temperature increase| while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO(2) increase taken into account| both species show a significant increase in productivity (+ 26 and + 43% for pine and oak respectively) at the end of the 21st century. While both species have different growth mechanisms| they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21st century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO(2) fertilization effect. 1305,2008,2,4,Changing seasonality in North Atlantic coastal sea level from the analysis of long tide gauge records,Sea level is a key variable in the context of global climate change. Climate-induced variability is expected to affect not only the mean sea level but also the amplitude and phase of its seasonal cycle. This study addresses the changes in the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle of coastal sea level in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. The physical causes of these variations are explored by analysing the association between fluctuations in the annual amplitude of sea level and in ancillary parameters [atmospheric pressure| sea-surface temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index]. The annual cycle is extracted through autoregressive decomposition| in order to be able to separate variations in seasonality from long-term interannual variations in the mean. The changes detected in the annual sea level cycle are regionally coherent| and related to changes in the analysed forcing parameters. At the northern sites| fluctuations in the annual amplitude of sea level are associated with concurrent changes in temperature| while atmospheric pressure is the dominant influence for most of the sites on the western boundary. The state of the NAO influences the annual variability in the Southern Bight| possibly through NAO-related changes in wind stress and ocean circulation. 8611,2008,2,4,Changing streamflow patterns in the rivers of northwestern Himalaya: Implications of global warming in the 20th century,The results of trend analyses of the discharge data of four rivers in northwestern Himalaya| namely Beas Chenab| Ravi and Satluj| are presented here and the impact of climate change in the last century is discussed. In the case of Satluj river| studies indicate an episodic variation in discharge in all three seasons on a longer timescale of about 82 years (1922-2004). Statistically significant decrease in the average annual and monsoon discharge and insignificant increase in winter and spring discharge| despite increasing temperatures during all the three seasons can also be seen. Decreasing discharge during winter and monsoon seasons in the post-1990 period| despite rising temperatures and average monsoon precipitation strongly indicates decreasing contribution of glaciers to the discharge and their gradual disappearance. On a shorter timescale of the last four decades of the 20th century| barring the Beas river| which shows a significantly decreasing trend| the other three rivers have shown a statistically insignificant change (at 95% confidence level) in their average annual discharge. Annual peak flood discharges show significant increasing trends in the Satluj and Chenab basins| significant decreasing trend in the Beas river and insignificant trend in the Ravi river. Notwithstanding these variations| the studies indicate an increase in the number of 'high-magnitude flood' events in the rivers in northwestern Himalaya in the last three decades. 8834,2008,2,4,Changing temperature regimes have advanced the phenology of Odonata in the Netherlands,1. Responses of biota to climate change have been well documented for a restricted number of taxa. This study examined shifts in phenology of 37 species of the aquatic insect order Odonata in the Netherlands over the last decade. 2. The present study shows that adults of the Dutch dragonflies and damselflies have advanced their flight dates over recent years due to complex effects of changing temperature regimes on the timing of adult flight dates. 3. Flight dates did not respond to changes in autumn/winter temperatures| advanced with increases in spring temperatures of the focal and previous year| and delayed with increases in summer temperatures of the previous year. Climate change consequently advanced the flight dates of the Odonata because only spring temperatures have increased during the study period. 4. The findings imply that climate change can evoke strong phenological responses in aquatic insects. Moreover| shifts in phenology due to climate change are likely to vary both spatially or temporally| depending on the exact nature of climate change. 1303,2008,2,4,Chapter 11: Global warming and cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms,The Earth and the oceans have warmed significantly over the past four decades| providing evidence that the Earth is undergoing long-term climate change. Increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns have been documented. Cyanobacteria have a long evolutionary history| with their first occurrence dating back at least 2.7 billion years ago. Cyanobacteria often dominated the oceans after past mass extinction events. They evolved under anoxic conditions and are well adapted to environmental stress including exposure to UV| high solar radiation and temperatures| scarce and abundant nutrients. These environmental conditions favor the dominance of cyanobacteria in many aquatic habitats| from freshwater to marine ecosystems. A few studies have examined the ecological consequences of global warming on cyanobacteria and other phytoplankton over the past decades in freshwater| estuarine| and marine environments| with varying results. The responses of cyanobacteria to changing environmental patterns associated with global climate change are important subjects for future research. Results of this research will have ecological and biogeochemical significance as well as management implications. 8926,2008,4,3,Characterisation factors for greenhouse gases at a midpoint level including indirect effects based on calculations with the IMAGE model,Background| Aims and Scope. The traditional method of using Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to assess the effects of climate change in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) does not account for indirect atmospheric effects like saturation effects and emissions of ozone precursors. The aim of this paper is to provide GWP values for LCA purposes of the most important climate related gases including indirect effects and assess whether these values are dependent of different background conditions and size of change in emissions fluxes. Methods. In order to reflect atmospheric interactions between direct and indirect greenhouse gases| an atmospheric climate and chemistry model needs to be used to determine GWP values. Here| the IMAGE model is used to determine GWP values for a time horizon of 100 years. Different runs were performed to test the outcomes against various background emission scenarios and various sizes in emission fluxes. Results and Discussion. The GWP values for CO2| N2O and CH4 depend on the chosen scenario and are lower under scenarios with higher background emissions. The GWPs of Halons| PFCs and SF6 are scenario and emission flux independent. The GWPs of HFCs increase with higher background emissions and higher additional emission fluxes| whereas GWPs of CFC are scenario independent| but change when other emission fluxes are applied. Finally| GWPs of HCFCs are higher in scenarios with higher background emission scenarios| and decrease when larger emission fluxes are applied. The GWP values calculated with IMAGE with direct effects only are comparable with IPCC values. Inclusion of the indirect atmospheric effects changes some of the values positively or negatively. For CFCs this results in a value up to 70% lower. For Halons this results in a value up to 1000% lower| resulting in a strong negative GWP. Inclusion of indirect effects increases the GWP of CH4 by 50%. Newly introduced greenhouse gases which have only indirect effects are given here a GWP. SO| has a negative GWP which depends on both the flux size and the chosen background scenario. CO and NMVOC have a positive flux-and-scenario dependent GWP. The GWP of NOx can| dependent on de chosen conditions| be positive or negative. Conclusions. The GWP values of this paper are a first attempt to provide a consistent set of GWP values for all direct and indirect greenhouse gases| including differences in GWP values per background scenario and flux size. The inclusion of indirect effects in GWP values causes large differences in some important greenhouse gases| which should not be ignored in LCA-analyses. We suggest for LCA purposes to use GWPs including indirect effects for marginal change and for the most realistic background scenario. However| existing uncertainties in the indirect effects of greenhouse gases demand for a better understanding of the importance of these effects. 8461,2008,3,3,Characteristics of a new power generation system with application of a shape memory alloy engine,It is necessary to develop new power generation systems using the unused low-temperature thermal energy around 100 degrees C from the viewpoint of global warming prevention. Even if a shape memory alloy is bent at normal temperature| when it is warmed| it has the character that it returns to the original straight form. Using this character of a shape memory alloy| unused thermal energy will be able to transform into rotation energy| and Finally it can change into electric energy. We solved this energy conversion mechanism and the validity of this theory was indirectly verified by experiment. Furthermore| the power generation characteristic of the Shape Memory Alloy Engine was obtained by experiment. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals| Inc. 8437,2008,4,4,Characterization of CO(2) and water vapor fluxes in a summer maize field with wavelet analysis,Knowledge of water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) fluxes in agricultural lands is crucial to estimate carbon and water cycles as well as to investigate global warming potentials. In this study| the continuous wavelet transform technique along with cross-wavelet and wavelet coherence methods was applied to characterize half-hourly CO(2) flux (Fc) and water vapor (LE) flux data obtained with the eddy covariance technique in a summer maize field located in the North China Plain. our motivation was to highlight the multiple time scale properties and to exam the possible connections between the flux exchanges and the concurrent micro- meteorological variations. Results show that both Fc and LE could be characterized by the wavelet coefficients for the time scale ranged from 60-110 days. Peaks of CO(2) exchange were corresponded to the in-phase trough points of water vapor flux exchange rates on the 110 day| 64 day and 32 day time scales. Intra-seasonal oscillations in both water and CO(2) flux exchanges were associated with the patterns of photosynthetically active radiation| air temperature| vapor pressure deficient| and precipitation. Our study also showed that wavelet transfonns had prospect in making a physical explanation of the temporal structure of the flux exchanges between the crop biosphere and atmosphere in response to ambient variables. This study suggests that cross-wavelet analysis and wavelet coherence could be powerful methods for probing the dynamical relationship between the flux exchange and the dominant modes of climate variability. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9070,2008,3,3,Characterization of nitrous oxide emission from a rice-duck farming system in South China,Agricultural activities are important contributors to the emissions of greenhouse gases. This study ascertained the dynamic emission of nitrous oxide (N2O) from a paddy field under a rice-duck farming system in South China. Two different cultivation and fertilizer treatments| namely| organic fertilizer + ducks (OF+D) and chemical fertilizer + ducks (CF+D) treatments| were employed in this study. Experimental data showed that diurnal variations of N2O emission were highly correlated with the activities of ducklings. The rates of N2O emission were normally increased in the early morning and late afternoon due to the frequent movement of ducklings at these time periods. Our study further revealed that the rates of N2O emission from the paddy field varied with the types of fertilizers used as well as with the stages of the rice growth. In general| the rates of N2O emission were higher for the CF+D treatment than for the OF+D treatment| whereas more N2O was emitted from the paddy field at the tillering stage than at the heading stage. The global warming potential with the use of the organic fertilizer was about 22% lower than with the use of the chemical fertilizer. 9260,2008,3,4,Chemical Engineering Challenges and Investment Opportunities in Sustainable Energy,The chemical and energy industries are transforming as they adjust to the new era of high-priced petroleum and severe global warming. As a result of the transformation| engineering challenges and investment opportunities abound. Rapid evolution and fast growth are expected in cathode and anode materials as well as polymeric electrolytes for vehicular batteries and in high-performance| polymer-ceramic composites for wind turbines| fuel-efficient aircraft| and lighter and safer cars. Unique process-engineering opportunities exist in sand-oil| coal| and possibly also shale liquefaction to produce transportation fuel; and also in genetic engineering of photosynthesizing plants and other organisms for their processing into high-performance biodegradable polymers and high-value-added environmentally friendly chemicals. Also| research on the feasibility of mitigation of global warming through enhancement of CO(2) uptake by the southern oceans by fertilization with trace amounts of iron is progressing. Because chemical engineers are uniquely well trained in mathematical modeling of mass transport| flow| and mixing| and also in cost analysis| they are likely to join the oceanographers and marine biologists in this important endeavor. 1153,2008,2,2,Children are likely to suffer most from our fossil fuel addiction,BACKGROUND: The periods of fetal and child development arguably represent the stages of greatest vulnerability to the dual impacts of fossil fuel combustion: the multiple toxic effects of emitted pollutants (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons| particles| sulfur oxides| nitrogen oxides| metals) and the broad health impacts of global climate change attributable in large part to carbon dioxide released by fossil fuel burning. OBJECTIVES: In this commentary I highlight current scientific evidence indicating that the fetus and young child are at heightened risk of developmental impairment| asthma| and cancer from fossil fuel pollutants and from the predicted effects of climate disruption such as heat waves| flooding| infectious disease| malnutrition| and trauma. Increased risk during early development derives from the inherently greater biologic vulnerability of the developing fetus and child and from their long future lifetime| during which early insults can potentially manifest as adult as well as childhood disease. I cite recent reports concluding that reducing dependence on fossil fuel and promoting clean and sustainable energy is economically feasible. DISCUSSION: Although much has been written separately about the toxicity of fossil fuel burning emissions and the effects of climate change on health| these two faces of the problem have not been viewed together with a focus on the developing fetus and child. Adolescence and old age are also periods of vulnerability| but the potential for both immediate and long-term adverse effects is greatest when exposure occurs prenatally or in the early years. CONCLUSIONS: Consideration of the full spectrum of health risks to children from fossil fuel combustion underscores the urgent need for environmental and energy policies to reduce fossil fuel dependence and maximize the health benefits to this susceptible population. We do not have to leave our children a double legacy of ill health and ecologic disaster. 1274,2008,2,4,Chute experiments on slushflow dynamics,Slushflows are gravity driven mass flows consisting of a mixture of snow and water| which exhibit considerable damage potential for endangered areas. An increase in global temperature and winter rain precipitation could lead to more frequent slushflow events| requiring the need to redesign protective measures. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the flow rheology of small scale slushflows (volumes of 10-15 m(3)) Using the 30 m long and 2.5 m wide snow chute of the Swiss Federal Institute of Snow and Avalanche Research at Weissfluhjoch| Davos| Switzerland. Velocity profiles| dynamic pressure| basal and normal shear stresses and flow height data were recorded in order to test suitable instruments for slushflow measurements. From the obtained data| the order of magnitude of the drag factor for slushflows interacting with obstacles could be estimated. Furthermore| an empirical guess of the effective viscosity of the slush could be extracted from the data. We give an overview of the experimental setup and discuss the experimental problems arising from the specific characteristics of slushflows. First results are presented| which indicate that the drag might be considerably higher than the estimates commonly used for dry flowing avalanches. Compared to dry snow avalanches| comparable (at similar velocities) shear and normal stresses seem to be higher in slushflows. The analysis of shear stress versus normal stress indicates some visco-plastic behavior. The results imply that slushflows have to be considered when choosing a design criteria for avalanche protection measures wherever this kind of flows can occur. The results from the chute experiments are discussed with respect to the development of numerical models of slushflows and a future adaptation of the optical velocity measurement devices to slushflows. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 8685,2008,2,4,Claims of Potential Expansion throughout the U.S. by Invasive Python Species Are Contradicted by Ecological Niche Models,Background: Recent reports from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) suggested that invasive Burmese pythons in the Everglades may quickly spread into many parts of the U. S. due to putative climatic suitability. Additionally| projected trends of global warming were predicted to significantly increase suitable habitat and promote range expansion by these snakes. However| the ecological limitations of the Burmese python are not known and the possible effects of global warming on the potential expansion of the species are also unclear. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we show that a predicted continental expansion is unlikely based on the ecology of the organism and the climate of the U. S. Our ecological niche models| which include variables representing climatic extremes as well as averages| indicate that the only suitable habitat in the U. S. for Burmese pythons presently occurs in southern Florida and in extreme southern Texas. Models based on the current distribution of the snake predict suitable habitat in essentially the only region in which the snakes are found in the U. S. Future climate models based on global warming forecasts actually indicate a significant contraction in suitable habitat for Burmese pythons in the U. S. as well as in their native range. Conclusions/Significance: The Burmese python is strongly limited to the small area of suitable environmental conditions in the United States it currently inhabits due to the ecological niche preferences of the snake. The ability of the Burmese python to expand further into the U. S. is severely limited by ecological constraints. Global warming is predicted to significantly reduce the area of suitable habitat worldwide| underscoring the potential negative effects of climate change for many species. 8792,2008,2,4,Clear genetic structure of Pinus kwangtungensis (Pinaceae) revealed by a plastid DNA fragment with a novel minisatellite,Background and Aims Pinus kwangtungensis is a five-needled pine| inhabiting isolated mountain tops| cliffs or slopes in the montane areas of southern China and northern Vietnam. Global warming and long-term deforestation in southern China threaten its existence and genetic integrity| and this species is listed as vulnerable in the China Species Red List. However| the level and distribution of genetic diversity in this vulnerable species are completely unknown. In this paper| the genetic diversity and structure are examined using paternally inherited plastid markers to shed light on its evolutionary history and to provide a genetic perspective for its conservation. Methods By means of direct sequencing| a new polymorphic fragment containing a minisatellite site was identified within the plastid genome of P. kwangtungensis. Using the minisatellite site along with five SNPs (one indel and four substitutions) within the same fragment| the population genetic structure and pollen flow were analysed in 17 populations of P. kwangtungensis in southern China. Key Results Analysis of 227 individuals from 17 populations revealed ten haplotypes at the minisatellite site. The haplotype diversity at species level was relatively high (0.629). Genetic diversity of each population ranged from 0 to 0.779| and the western populations harboured more genetic variation than the eastern and Hainan populations| although the former appeared to have experienced a bottleneck in recent history. Population subdivision based on this site was high (F(ST) = 0.540 under IAM; R(ST) = 0.677 under SMM). Three major clusters (eastern| western and Hainan) were identified based on a neighbor-joining dendrogram generated from genetic distances among the populations. The genetic structures inferred from all the polymorphic sites and the SNPs were in concordance with that from the minisatellite site. Conclusions The results suggest that there are at least three refugia for P. kwangtungensis and that populations in these refugia should be treated as separate evolutionarily significant units or conservation units. The high diversities in the western populations suggest that these were much larger in the past (e.g. glacial stages) and that the shrinking population size might have been caused by recent events (e.g. deforestation| global warming| etc.). The western populations should be given priority for conservation due to their higher genetic diversity and limited population sizes. It is concluded that the newly found minisatellite may serve as a novel and applicable molecular marker for unravelling evolutionary processes in P. kwangtungensis. 8894,2008,2,3,Climate and carbon cycle changes under the overshoot scenario,The "overshoot scenario" is an emissions scenario in which CO2 concentration in the atmosphere temporarily exceeds some pre-defined| "dangerous" threshold (before being reduced to non-dangerous levels). Support for this idea comes from its potential to achieve a balance between the burdens of current and future generations in dealing with global warming. Before it can be considered a viable policy| the overshoot scenario needs to be examined in terms of its impacts on the global climate and the environment. In| particular| it must be determined if climate change cause by the overshoot scenario is reversible or not| since crossing that "dangerous" CO2 threshold could result in climate change from which we might not be able to recover. In this study| we quantify the change in several climatic and environmental variables under the overshoot scenario using a global climate model of intermediate complexity. Compared to earlier studies on the overshoot scenario| we have an explicit carbon cycle model that allows us to represent carbon-climate feedbacks and force the climate model more realistically with CO2 emissions rates rather than with prescribed atmospheric pCO(2). Our standard CO2 emissions rate is calculated on the basis of historical atmospheric pCO(2) data and the WRE S650 non-overshoot stabilization profile. It starts from the preindustrial year 1760| peaks in the year 2056| and ends in the year 2300. A variety of overshoot scenarios were constructed by increasing the amplitude of the control emissions peak but decreasing the peak duration so that the cumulative emissions remain essentially constant. Sensitivity simulations of various overshoot scenarios in our model show that many aspects of the global climate are largely reversible by year 2300. The significance of the reversibility| which takes roughly 200 years in our experiments| depends on the time horizon with which it is viewed or the number of future generations for whom equity is sought. At times when the overshoot scenario has emissions rates higher then the control scenario| the transient changes in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and surface ocean pH can be significant| even for moderate overshoot scenarios that remain within IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The large transient changes and the centennial timescale of climate reversibility suggest that the overshoot might not. be the best mitigation approach| even if it technically follows the optimal economic path. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8938,2008,2,4,Climate and nutrient influences on the growth of white spruce trees in the boreal forests of the Yukon,The boreal forests of North America are undergoing major changes because of the direct effects of global warming and increased CO2 levels. Plant production in the boreal forest is nutrient limited| and we examined how long-term fertilization affected growth of white spruce Picea glauca in the face of these major changes. We conducted a large-scale experiment by fertilizing two 1 km(2) stands of white spruce in the southwestern Yukon with commercial NPK fertilizer from 1987 to 1994| Tree growth was measured by the width of annual increments in 60 trees from each of 2 control and of 2 matched fertilized 1 km(2) sites for the period from 1977 to 1997 in a before| during| and after experimental design. Ring widths increased in both control and fertilized trees over this period as summer temperatures increased. Ring widths in fertilized trees increased from 9 to 48 % over control trees during the years in which fertilizer was added| but immediately fell back to control levels from 1995 to 1997 at 1 site as soon as fertilization was stopped. In the long term| nitrogen in these forests may become tied up in shrubs| grasses| herbs| and fungi and not be available to the trees. There are 2 other possible explanations for this lack of sustained tree growth: first| the conversion of nitrogen into a form not readily available to spruce and| second| a spruce bark beetle outbreak that hit the southwestern Yukon during and after 1994 and affected 1 study site much more than the other. 1200,2008,2,4,Climate change affects colonization dynamics in a metacommunity of three Daphnia species,Climate change is expected to alter the range and abundance of many species by influencing habitat qualities. For species living in fragmented populations| not only the quality of the present patches but also access to new habitat patches may be affected. Here| we show that colonization in a metacommunity can be directly influenced by weather changes| and that these observed weather changes are consistent with global climate change models. Using a long-term dataset from a rock pool metacommunity of the three species Daphnia magna| Daphnia longispina and Daphnia pulex with 507 monitored habitat patches| we correlated a four-fold increase in colonization rate with warmer| drier weather for the period from 1982 to 2006. The higher colonization rate after warm and dry summers led to an increase in metacommunity dynamics over time. A mechanistic explanation for the increased colonization rate is that the resting stages have a higher exposure to animal and wind dispersal in desiccated rock pools. Although colonization rates reacted in the same direction in all three species| there were significant species-specific effects that resulted in an overall change in the metacommunity composition. Increased local instability and colonization dynamics may even lead to higher global stability of the metacommunity. Thus| whereas climate change has been reported to cause a unidirectional change in species range for many other species| it changes the dynamics and composition of an entire community in this metacommunity| with winners and losers difficult to predict. 8721,2008,2,3,Climate change and animal diseases in South America,Climate strongly affects agriculture and livestock production and influences animal diseases| vectors and pathogens| and their habitat. Global warming trends predicted in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) report for South America are likely to change the temporal and geographical distribution of infectious diseases| including those that are vector-borne such as bluetongue| West Nile fever| vesicular stomatitis and New World screwworm. Changes in distribution will be partially modulated by El Nino Southern Oscillation events| which will become more frequent and lead to a greater frequency of droughts and floods. Active disease surveillance for animal diseases in South America| particularly for vector-borne diseases| is very poor. Disease reporting is often lacking| which affects knowledge of disease distribution and impact| and preparedness for early response. Improved reporting for animal diseases that may be affected by climate change is needed for better prevention and intervention measures in susceptible livestock| wildlife and vectors in South America. This requires contributions from multidisciplinary experts| including meteorologists| epidemiologists| biologists and ecologists| and from local communities. 9278,2008,2,4,Climate change and cropping systems over Kerala in the Humid Tropics,There was a decline in southwest monsoon and annual rainfall since 1951 onwards at the rate of 5.2mm/year and 5.6 mm/year| respectively. The climate over Kerala also shifted from wetness to dryness within the humid climate (13| to B.) during the study period from 1951 to 2007. There was a shift in cropping systems across the State of Kerala as the index of foodgrain crops was declining while increasing the index of non-foodgrain crops. Unlike in seasonal crops| the effects of climate change on long term basis in terms of global warming may not be seen on crops like coconut| rubber and arecanut as they are grown under tolerable limits of surface air temperature. However| the occurrence of floods and droughts as evident in 2007 (floods due to excess monsoon rainfall by 41% against normal) and summer 2004 (drought due to no significant rainfall from November| 2003 to April 2004)| is likely to increase in ensuing decades as projected and crop losses are expected. The unusual summer rains in 2008 devastated the paddy crop in Kuttanad and Kole lands of Thrissur. In contrast| it was beneficial to crops like cardamom| coconut and arecanut. The thermosensitive crops like cocoa| black pepper| coffee| cardamom and tea may need attention as temperature range is likely to increase and rainfall is likely to decline in addition to deforestation as these crops are grown under the influence of typical forest -agro-ecosystems. Deforestation| shift in cropping systems| decline in wetlands and depletion of surface and groundwater resources may aggravate the ill effects of floods and droughts on all the crops. Hence| there is an urgent need for pro-active measures on short-term and long-term basis against the climate change risks for sustenance of crop production both in terms of quantity and quality. 8702,2008,2,2,Climate change and human health,Climate changes| particularly global warming| are attributable to human activities| mainly fossil fuel burning which releases greenhouse gases such as CO2. The emissions Of CO2 continue to rise| and climate models project 1.1 degrees C to 6.4 degrees C rise of average surface temperature over the 21(st) century. Health effects from global warming range from increased mortality by extreme weather| floods| and storms to increase of diseases such as malaria| dengue fever| and diarrhea. Korea is not immune to health impacts from global warming. Data on daily temperature of Seoul in 1994 showed a clear association with daily mortality. Rise of sea and surface temperatures also indicates possibility of increase in infectious diseases in Korea. Concentrations of ambient pollutants| particularly ozone| were shown to be associated with surface temperature. Therefore| we are already in the influence of climate change. Adaptation strategy to climate changes is basically a matter of public health| Well -prepared programs for responding to climate changes will minimize health risks. The most effective responses are strengthening of the key functions of environmental management| surveillance| and response to natural disasters and changes of disease patterns associated with global warming. We need to intensify our efforts in preventive public health| and ensure sustainable development and protection of ecosystem for human health. 8459,2008,2,4,Climate change and infectious diseases. A novel epidemiological scenario,For the international scientific community| it is undoubted that planetary temperature is increasing| being projected an average raise of 1.0 degrees C-3.5 degrees C by the year 2100. Forecasted consequences are diverse| most of them adverse for human health| including the establishment of favorable epidemiological scenarios for the emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases. The present article summarizes the available evidence regarding the mechanisms that promote climate change| its environmental effects and its consequences on human health. In order to accomplish this objective| demonstrated changes in the dynamics of zoonotic| vectorial| food and water-borne diseases are described. The position of Chile in the international community is commented. as well as multiple pending challenges| among which outstands the importance of incorporating professionals that work in the health sector to the national debate.
8914,2008,2,3,Climate change and its impact on airborne pollen in Basel| Switzerland 1969-2007,As published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global warming is a reality and its impact is huge like the increase of extreme weather events| glacier recession| sea level rise and also effects on human health. Among them allergies to airborne pollen might increase or change in pattern due to the invasion of new allergic plants or due to different behavior of plants like earlier flowering. In this study we used the longest Swiss airborne pollen data set to examine the influence of the temperature increase on the time of flowering. In the case of Basel| where pollen data for 39 years are available| it was shown that due to a temperature increase the start of flowering in the case of birch occurred about 13 days earlier. Apart from a shift of the start of the flowering there is also a trend to higher annual birch pollen quantities and an increase in the daily maximal pollen concentration. Due to global warming and because symptoms might appear earlier in the year people suffering from a pollen allergy might face a new unaccustomed situation. 8637,2008,2,2,Climate change and its impact on birch pollen quantities and the start of the pollen season an example from Switzerland for the period 1969-2006,As published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global warming is a reality and its impact is huge like the increase of extreme weather events| glacier recession| sea level rise and also effects on human health. Among them allergies to airborne pollen might increase or change in pattern due to the invasion of new allergic plants or due to different behavior of plants like earlier flowering. In this study we used the longest Swiss airborne pollen data set to examine the influence of the temperature increase on the time of flowering. In the case of Basel| where pollen data for 38 years are available| it was shown that due to a temperature increase the start of flowering in the case of birch occurred about 15 days earlier. Apart from a shift of the start of the flowering there is also a trend towards higher annual birch pollen quantities and an increase of the highest daily mean pollen concentrations. Due to global warming and because symptoms may appear earlier in the year people suffering from a pollen allergy might face a new unaccustomed situation. 9007,2008,2,4,Climate change and outbreaks of the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata in subarctic birch forest: evidence of a recent outbreak range expansion,1. Range expansions mediated by recent climate warming have been documented for many insect species| including some important forest pests. However| whether climate change also influences the eruptive dynamics of forest pest insects| and hence the ecological and economical consequences of outbreaks| is largely unresolved. 2. Using historical outbreak records covering more than a century| we document recent outbreak range expansions of two species of cyclic geometrid moth| Operophtera brumata Bkh. (winter moth) and Epirrita autumnata L. (autumnal moth)| in subarctic birch forest of northern Fennoscandia. The two species differ with respect to cold tolerance| and show strikingly different patterns in their recent outbreak range expansion. 3. We show that| during the past 15-20 years| the less cold-tolerant species O. brumata has experienced a pronounced north-eastern expansion into areas previously dominated by E. autumnata outbreaks. Epirrita autumnata| on the other hand| has expanded the region in which it exhibits regular outbreaks into the coldest| most continental areas. Our findings support the suggestion that recent climate warming in the region is the most parsimonious explanation for the observed patterns. 4. The presence of O. brumata outbreaks in regions previously affected solely by E. autumnata outbreaks is likely to increase the effective duration of local outbreaks| and hence have profound implications for the subarctic birch forest ecosystem. 8842,2008,5,4,Climate change and postglacial human dispersals in Southeast Asia,Modern humans have been living in Island Southeast Asia (ISEA) for at least 50|000 years. Largely because of the influence of linguistic studies| however| which have a shallow time depth| the attention of archaeologists and geneticists has usually been focused on the last 6|000 years-in particular| on a proposed Neolithic dispersal from China and Taiwan. Here we use complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genome sequencing to spotlight some earlier processes that clearly had a major role in the demographic history of the region but have hitherto been unrecognized. We show that haplogroup E| an important component of mtDNA diversity in the region| evolved in situ over the last 35|000 years and expanded dramatically throughout ISEA around the beginning of the Holocene| at the time when the ancient continent of Sundaland was being broken up into the present-day archipelago by rising sea levels. It reached Taiwan and Near Oceania more recently| within the last similar to 8|000 years. This suggests that global warming and sea-level rises at the end of the Ice Age| 15|000-7|000 years ago| were the main forces shaping modern human diversity in the region. 9221,2008,2,2,Climate change and the biosphere,Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human-induced climate change. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes| which in turn play an important role in climate change. The effects have been most dramatic at high latitudes| where multiple processes contribute to decreased surface reflectivity| thus increasing the solar radiation absorbed and the heat transferred to the atmosphere. One thing that would help policymakers is a more comprehensive assessment of ecosystem feedbacks to the climate system. Scientists currently search for genes that help calcifying organisms weather the effects of climate change. Fruit fly genetics may help us understand how organisms can or cannot adapt to climate change. Increasing oceanic temperatures are driving epidemics of coral disease.
8751,2008,2,4,Climate change and the northern Russian treeline zone,The Russian treeline is a dynamic ecotone typified by steep gradients in summer temperature and regionally variable gradients in albedo and heat flux. The location of the treeline is largely controlled by summer temperatures and growing season length. Temperatures have responded strongly to twentieth-century global warming and will display a magnified response to future warming. Dendroecological studies indicate enhanced conifer recruitment during the twentieth century. However| conifers have not yet recolonized many areas where trees were present during the Medieval Warm period (ca AD 800-1300) or the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; ca 10 000-3000 years ago). Reconstruction of tree distributions during the HTM suggests that the future position of the treeline due to global warming may approximate its former Holocene maximum position. An increased dominance of evergreen tree species in the northern Siberian forests may be an important difference between past and future conditions. Based on the slow rates of treeline expansion observed during the twentieth century| the presence of steep climatic gradients associated with the current Arctic coastline and the prevalence of organic soils| it is possible that rates of treeline expansion will be regionally variable and transient forest communities with species abundances different from today's may develop. 8533,2008,5,4,Climate Change and the Origin and Development of Rice Cultivation in the Yangtze River Basin| China,The forest hunter-gatherers of the middle Yangtze River basin| who were the first to invent pottery and led a sedentary lifestyle| may have begun to cultivate rice during the Bolling-Allerod interstadial global warming period. The earliest rice cultivation may have dated back to 14 000 calibrated (cal.) years before present (YBP). The global warming at 9000 cal. YBP in the early Holocene brought the development of the rice cultivation to the middle Yangtze River basin. On the other hand| ancient rice-cultivating and piscatorial society met a crisis at 4200-4000 cal. YBP that was characterized by a significant cooling of the climate. This climate deterioration led the northern wheat/barley-cultivating pastoral people to migrate to the south and invade| ultimately bringing about the collapse of the rice-cultivating and piscatorial society in the Yangtze River basin. 8504,2008,2,4,Climate Change and Waterborne Disease Risk in the Great Lakes Region of the US,Extremes of the hydrologic cycle will accompany global warming| causing precipitation intensity to increase| particularly in middle and high latitudes. During the twentieth century| the frequency of major storms has already increased| and the total precipitation increase over this time period has primarily come from the greater number of heavy events. The Great Lakes region is projected to experience a rise these extreme precipitation events. For southern Wisconsin| the precipitation rate of the 10 wettest days was Simulated using a suite of seven global climate models from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. For each ranking| the precipitation rate of these very heavy events increases in the future. Overall| the models project that extreme precipitation events will become 10% to 40% stronger in southern Wisconsin| resulting in greater potential for flooding| and for the waterborne diseases that often accompany high discharge into Lake Michigan. Using 6.4 cm (2.5 in) of daily precipitation as the threshold for initiating combined sewer overflow into Lake Michigan| the frequency of these events is expected to rise by 50% to 120% by the end of this century. The combination of future thermal and hydrologic changes may affect the usability of recreational beaches. Chicago beach closures are dependent on the magnitude of recent precipitation (within the past 24 hours)| lake temperature| and lake stage. Projected increases in heavy rainfall| warmer lake waters| and lowered lake levels would all be expected to contribute to beach contamination in the future. The Great Lakes serve as a drinking water source for more than 40 million people. Ongoing studies and past events illustrate a strong connection between rain events and the amount of pollutants entering the Great Lakes. Extreme precipitation under global warming projections may overwhelm the combined sewer systems and lead to overflow events that can threaten both human health and recreation in the region. 8519,2008,2,4,Climate change causes rapid changes in the distribution and site abundance of birds in winter,Detecting coherent signals of climate change is best achieved by conducting expansive| long-term studies. Here| using counts of waders (Charadrii) collected from ca. 3500 sites over 30 years and covering a major portion of western Europe| we present the largest-scale study to show that faunal abundance is influenced by climate in winter. We demonstrate that the 'weighted centroids' of populations of seven species of wader occurring in internationally important numbers have undergone substantial shifts of up to 115 km| generally in a northeasterly direction. To our knowledge| this shift is greater than that recorded in any other study| but closer to what would be expected as a result of the spatial distribution of ecological zones. We establish that year-to-year changes in site abundance have been positively correlated with concurrent changes in temperature| but that this relationship is most marked towards the colder extremities of the birds' range| suggesting that shifts have occurred as a result of range expansion and that responses to climate change are temperature dependent. Many attempts to model the future impacts of climate change on the distribution of organisms| assume uniform responses or shifts throughout a species' range or with temperature| but our results suggest that this may not be a valid approach. We propose that| with warming temperatures| hitherto unsuitable sites in northeastern Europe will host increasingly important wader numbers| but that this may not be matched by declines elsewhere within the study area. The need to establish that such changes are occurring is accentuated by the statutory importance of this taxon in the designation of protected areas. 1254,2008,2,4,Climate change effects on poikilotherm tritrophic interactions,Species of plants and animals have characteristic climatic requirements for growth| survival and reproduction that limit their geographic distribution| abundance and interactions with other species. To analyze this complexity requires the development of models that include not only the effects of biotic factors on species dynamics and interactions| but also the effects of abiotic factors including weather. The need for such capacity has appreciably increased as we face the threat of global climate change. In this paper| bi- and tri-trophic physiologically based demographic models of alfalfa| cotton| grape| olive and the noxious weed yellow starthistle systems are used to explore some of the potential effects of climate change. A general model that applies to all species in all trophic levels (including the economic one) is used to simulate the effects of observed and projected weather on system dynamics. Observed daily weather and that of climate model scenarios were used as forcing variables in our studies. Geographic information system (GRASS GIS) is used to map the predicted effects on species across the varied ecological zones of California. The predictions of the geographic distribution and abundance of the various species examined accords well with field observations. Furthermore| the models predict how the geographic range and abundance of the some species would be affected by climate change. Among the findings are: (1) The geographic range of tree species such as olive that require chilling to break dormancy (i.e. vernalization) may be limited in some areas due to climate warming| but their range may expand in others. For example| olive phenology and yield will be affected in the southern part of California due to high temperature| but may expand in northern areas until limited by low winter temperatures. Pest distribution and abundance will also be affected. For example| climate warming would allow the cold intolerant pink bollworm in cotton to expand its range into formerly inhospitable heavy frost areas of the San Joaquin Valley| and damage rates will increase throughout its current range. The distribution and abundance of other cold intolerant pests such as olive fly| the Mediterranean fruit fly and others could be similarly affected. In addition| species dominance and existence in food webs could change (e.g. in alfalfa)| and the biological control of invasive species might be adversely affected (e.g. vine mealybug in grape). The distribution and abundance of invasive weeds such as yellow starthistle will be altered| and its control by extant and new biological control agents will be difficult to predict because climate change will differentially affects each. (2) Marginal analysis of multiple regression models of the simulation data provides a useful way of analyzing the efficacy of biological control agents. Models could be useful as guides in future biological control efforts on extant and new exotic pest species. (3) Major deficiencies in our capacity to predict the effects of climate change on biological interactions were identified: (1) There is need to improve existing models to better forecast the effects of climate change on crop system components; (2) The current system for collecting daily weather data consists of a patchwork of station of varying reliability that often record different variables and in different units. Especially vexing| is the dearth of solar radiation data at many locations. This was an unexpected finding as solar energy is an important driving variable in biological systems. 8493,2008,2,2,Climate change impact on extreme wave conditions in the North Sea: an ensemble study,An analysis of today's mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea and their possible future changes due to anthropogenic climate change are presented. The sea state was simulated for the 30-year period 2071-2100 using the wave model WAM and an ensemble of wind field data sets for four climate change realizations as driving data. The wind field data sets are based on simulation outputs from two global circulation models (GCMs: HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3) for two emission scenarios (A2 and B2| Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| Special Report on Emission Scenarios). They were regionalized by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute using the regional climate model RCAO. The effects of the climate realizations on the sea state statistics were assessed by analyzing the differences between the patterns in the four CGM/emission scenario combinations and those in two control simulations representing reference wave climate conditions for the 30-year period 1961-1990. The analysis of the four emission scenario/GCM combinations has shown that the future long-term 99 percentile wind speed and significant wave height increase by up to 7% and 18%| respectively| in the North Sea| except for significant wave height off the English coast and to the north in the HadAM3H-driven simulation. The climate change response in the ECHAM4/OPYC3-forced experiments is generally larger than in the HadAM3H-driven simulations. The differences in future significant wave height between the different combinations are in the same order of magnitude as those between the control runs for the two GCMs. Nevertheless| there is agreement among the four combinations that extreme wave heights may increase in large parts in the southern and eastern North Sea by about 0.25 to 0.35 m (5-8% of present values) towards the end of the twenty first century in case of global warming. All combinations also show an increase in future frequency of severe sea state. 8550,2008,2,4,Climate change impact on flood hazard in Europe: An assessment based on high-resolution climate simulations,Global warming is generally expected to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events| which may lead to more intense and frequent river flooding. This work assesses the implications of climate change for future flood hazard in Europe. Regional climate simulations from the HIRHAM model with 12-km horizontal resolution were used to drive the hydrological model LISFLOOD| and extreme value techniques were applied to the results to estimate the probability of extreme discharges. It was found that by the end of this century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario in many European rivers extreme discharge levels may increase in magnitude and frequency. In several rivers| most notably in the west and parts of eastern Europe| the return period of what is currently a 100-year flood may in the future decrease to 50 years or less. A considerable decrease in flood hazard was found in the northeast| where warmer winters and a shorter snow season reduce the magnitude of the spring snowmelt peak. Also in other rivers in central and southern Europe a decrease in extreme river flows was simulated. The results were compared with those obtained with two HIRHAM experiments at 50-km resolution for the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Disagreements between the various model experiments indicate that the effect of the horizontal resolution of the regional climate model is comparable in magnitude to the greenhouse gas scenario. Also| the choice of extreme value distribution to estimate discharge extremes influences the results| especially for events with higher return periods. 8720,2008,2,4,Climate change impacts and risks for animal health in Asia,The threat of climate change and global warming is now recognised worldwide and some alarming manifestations of change have occurred. The Asian continent| because of its size and diversity| may be affected significantly by the consequences of climate change| and its new status as a 'hub' of livestock production gives it an important role in mitigating possible impacts of climate variability on animal health. Animal health may be affected by climate change in four ways: heat-related diseases and stress| extreme weather events| adaptation of animal production systems to new environments| and emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases| especially vector-borne diseases critically dependent on environmental and climatic conditions. To face these new menaces| the need for strong and efficient Veterinary Services is irrefutable| combined with good coordination of public health services| as many emerging human diseases are zoonoses. Asian developing countries have acute weaknesses in their Veterinary Services| which jeopardises the global surveillance network essential for early detection of hazards. Indeed| international cooperation within and outside Asia is vital to mitigating the risks of climate change to animal health in Asia. 8752,2008,2,4,Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch,In highly seasonal environments| offspring production by vertebrates is timed to coincide with the annual peak of resource availability. For herbivores| this resource peak is represented by the annual onset and progression of the plant growth season. As plant phenology advances in response to climatic warming| there is potential for development of a mismatch between the peak of resource demands by reproducing herbivores and the peak of resource availability. For migratory herbivores| such as caribou| development of a trophic mismatch is particularly likely because the timing of their seasonal migration to summer ranges| where calves are born| is cued by changes in day length| while onset of the plant-growing season on the same ranges is cued by local temperatures. Using data collected since 1993 on timing of calving by caribou and timing of plant growth in West Greenland| we document the consequences for reproductive success of a developing trophic mismatch between caribou and their forage plants. As mean spring temperatures at our study site have risen by more than 4 degrees C| caribou have not kept pace with advancement of the plant-growing season on their calving range. As a consequence| offspring mortality has risen and offspring production has dropped fourfold. 1071,2008,2,4,Climate Change Trade-Offs in the Side-Blotched Lizard (Uta stansburiana): Effects of Growing-Season Length and Mild Temperatures on Winter Survival,An expanding body of literature has demonstrated that global climate change continues to adversely affect many populations| species| and ecosystems. However| life-history theory also predicts possible benefits from longer growing seasons and less severe winters| particularly for ectotherms. To test the idea that climate change will have benefits as well as costs| I studied the impacts of growing-season length on growth and overwintering conditions on survival time using side-blotched lizards ( Uta stansburiana). Experiments in replicate field enclosures revealed that fall growing-season length has a direct effect on overwintering body size. Laboratory experiments revealed that both size and overwintering temperature have direct effects on winter survival time. Larger lizards are more likely to survive longer regardless of winter temperature. Furthermore| animals in colder (but still mild) winter microenvironments are more likely to survive longer than those in warmer winter environments. These results indicate that warmer winters caused by global climate change have the potential to negatively affect ectotherm populations. However| longer growing seasons may offset losses by allowing additional growth and energy storage. Thus| environmental alterations associated with climate change may be simultaneously beneficial and detrimental| and the long-term persistence of certain organisms may depend on the relative strength of their effects. 1280,2008,2,4,Climate change| elevational range shifts| and bird extinctions,Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic| ecological| and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds| 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges| four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios| and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8 degrees C| projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions| and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds| intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1 degrees C warming) to 30.0% (6.4 degrees C warming) of these species. Worldwide| every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100-500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates| there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation| using elevational limits in a tested| standardized| and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors| but these estimates largely involve different sets of species. 8858,2008,2,3,Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat?,Climate change could strongly affect the wheat crop that accounts for 21 % of food and 200 million hectares of farmland worldwide. This article reviews some of the approaches for addressing the expected effects that climate change may likely inflict on wheat in some of the most important wheat growing areas| namely germplasm adaptation| system management| and mitigation. Future climate scenarios suggest that global warming may be beneficial for the wheat crop in some regions| but could reduce productivity in zones where optimal temperatures already exist. For example| by 2050| as a result of possible climate shifts in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) - currently part of the favorable| high potential| irrigated| low rainfall mega-environment| which accounts for 15% of global wheat production - as much as 51 % of its area might be reclassified as a heat-stressed| irrigated| short-season production mega-environment. This shift would also represent a significant reduction in wheat yields| unless appropriate cultivars and crop management practices were offered to and adopted by South Asian farmers| Under the same climate scenarios| the area covered by the cool| temperate wheat mega-environment could expand as far as 65 degrees N in both North America and Eurasia. To adapt and mitigate the climate change effects on wheat supplies for the poor| germiplasm scientists and agronomists are developing heat-tolerant wheat germplasm| as well as cultivars better adapted to conservation agriculture. Encouraging results include identifying sources of alleles for heat tolerance and their introgression into breeding populations through conventional methods and biotechnology. Likewise| agronomists and extension agents are aiming to cut CO2 emissions by reducing tillage and the burning of crop residues. Mitigation research promises to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide by using infrared sensors and the normalized differential vegetative index (NDVI) that determines the right times and correct amounts of fertilizer to apply. Wheat geneticists and physiologists are also assessing wild relatives of wheat as potential sources of genes with inhibitory effects on soil nitrification. Through the existing global and regional research-for-development networks featuring wheat| technology and knowledge can flow to allow farmers to face the risks associated with climate change. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9232,2008,2,4,Climate changes and flood/drought risk in the Yangtze Delta| China| during the past millennium,Reconstructed historical temperature and flood/drought variations based on historical records for the Yangtze Delta are analyzed with the help of power spectral and continuous wavelet analyses. Three distinct climate periods can be identified in the Yangtze Delta: Warm Medieval Period (AD 1000-1400)| Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1920)| and the ongoing well-established Global Warming Period (AD 1920-present). The variability of temperature is of great magnitude| and periods dominated by warm/cold temperature are usually interrupted by cold/warm periods. A comparison of flood/drought variations and temperature variations indicates that there are obviously no fixed modes of climate changes such as warm-wet| cold-wet| warm-dry or cold-dry. However| the results demonstrate that large-magnitude temperature variations usually lead to a higher frequency of flood/drought hazards in the Yangtze Delta. Furthermore| the frequency of flood/drought events usually increased in the transition periods from one climate state to another. The ongoing period of climate change is another transition from cold temperatures during the Little Ice Age to increasing temperatures and variability. This might increase the probability and reoccurrence of flood/drought events and other extreme climate events in the Yangtze Delta. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 1297,2008,4,4,Climate forcing and air quality change due to regional emissions reductions by economic sector,We examine the air quality (AQ) and radiative forcing (RF) response to emissions reductions by economic sector for North America and developing Asia in the CAM and GISS composition/climate models. Decreases in annual average surface particulate are relatively robust| with intermodel variations in magnitude typically <30% and very similar spatial structure. Surface ozone responses are small and highly model dependent. The largest net RF results from reductions in emissions from the North America industrial/power and developing Asia domestic fuel burning sectors. Sulfate reductions dominate the first case| for which intermodel variations in the sulfate ( or total) aerosol optical depth ( AOD) responses are similar to 30% and the modeled spatial patterns of the AOD reductions are highly correlated (R=0.9). Decreases in BC dominate the developing Asia domestic fuel burning case| and show substantially greater model-to-model differences. Intermodel variations in tropospheric ozone burden changes are also large| though aerosol changes dominate those cases with substantial net climate forcing. The results indicate that across-the-board emissions reductions in domestic fuel burning in developing Asia and in surface transportation in North America are likely to offer the greatest potential for substantial| simultaneous improvement in local air quality and near-term mitigation of global climate change via short-lived species. Conversely| reductions in industrial/power emissions have the potential to accelerate near-term warming| though they would improve AQ and have a long-term cooling effect on climate. These broad conclusions appear robust to intermodel differences. 9032,2008,2,4,Climate induced increases in species richness of marine fishes,Climate change has been predicted to lead to changes in local and regional species richness through species extinctions and latitudinal ranges shifts. Here| we show that species richness of fish in the North Sea| a group of ecological and socio-economical importance| has increased over a 22-year period and that this rise is related to higher water temperatures. Over eight times more fish species displayed increased distribution ranges in the North Sea (mainly small-sized species of southerly origin) compared with those whose range decreased (primarily large and northerly species). This increase in species richness can be explained from the fact that fish species richness in general decreases with latitude. This observation confirms that the interaction between large-scale biogeographical patterns and climate change may lead to increasing species richness at temperate latitudes. 9227,2008,2,4,Climate influence on dengue epidemics in Puerto Rico,The variability of the insect-borne disease dengue in Puerto Rico was studied in relation to climatic variables in the period 1979-2005. Annual and monthly reported dengue cases were compared with precipitation and temperature data. Results show that the incidence of dengue in Puerto Rico was relatively constant over time despite global warming| possibly due to the offsetting effects of declining rainfall| improving health care and little change in population. Seasonal fluctuations of dengue were driven by rainfall increases from May to November. Year-to-year variability in dengue cases was positively related to temperature| but only weakly associated with local rainfall and an index of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climatic conditions were mapped with respect to dengue cases and patterns in high and low years were compared. During epidemics| a low pressure system east of Florida draws warm humid air over the northwestern Caribbean. Long-term trends in past observed and future projected rainfall and temperatures were studied. Rainfall has declined slowly| but temperatures in the Caribbean are rising with the influence of global warming. Thus| dengue may increase in the future| and it will be necessary to anticipate dengue epidemics using climate forecasts| to reduce adverse health impacts. 8836,2008,4,2,Climate of Russia in the 21st Century. Part 1. New Evidence of Anthropogenic Climate Change and the State of the Art of its Simulation,This is the first of three papers devoted to the study of climate change in Russia in the 20th and 21st centuries using ensembles of CMIP3 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models. Current studies of observed global and regional climate changes are briefly reviewed based on the analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The anthropogenic nature of climate change is emphasized. It is also noted that the observed warming in Russia is significantly larger than global warming. Alternative hypotheses on causes of global climate changes discussed in some Russian publications are reviewed and their groundlessness is shown. The paper discusses some characteristics of ensembles of CMIP3 models that participated in the preparation of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. A model quality index is introduced. The dependence of simulated climate change in Russia on the choice of model ensembles and emission scenarios is considered. It is shown that the climate change in Russia does not depend significantly on the emission scenario choice until the middle of the 21st century. 9031,2008,2,3,Climate of the arctic marine environment,The climate of the Arctic marine environment is characterized by strong seasonality in the incoming solar radiation and by tremendous spatial variations arising from a variety of surface types| including open ocean| sea ice| large islands| and proximity to major landmasses. Interannual and decadal-scale variations are prominent features of Arctic climate| complicating the distinction between natural and anthropogenically driven variations. Nevertheless| climate models consistently indicate that the Arctic is the most climatically sensitive region of the Northern Hemisphere| especially near the sea ice margins. The Arctic marine environment has shown changes over the past several decades| and these changes are part of a broader global warming that exceeds the range of natural variability over the past 1000 years. Record minima of sea ice coverage during the past few summers and increased melt from Greenland have important implications for the hydrographic regime of the Arctic marine environment. The recent changes in the atmosphere (temperature| precipitation| pressure)| sea ice| and ocean appear to be a coordinated response to systematic variations of the large-scale atmospheric circulation| superimposed on a general warming that is likely associated with increasing greenhouse gases. The changes have been sufficiently large in some sectors (e.g.| the Bering/Chukchi Seas) that consequences for marine ecosystems appear to be underway. Global climate models indicate an additional warming of several degrees Celsius in much of the Arctic marine environment by 2050. However| the warming is seasonal (largest in autumn and winter)| spatially variable| and closely associated with further retreat of sea ice. Additional changes predicted for 2050 are a general decrease of sea level pressure (largest in the Bering sector) and an increase of precipitation. While predictions of changes in storminess cannot be made with confidence| the predicted reduction of sea ice cover will almost certainly lead to increased oceanic mixing| ocean wave generation| and coastal flooding. 8422,2008,3,3,Climate policy and ancillary benefits: A survey and integration into the modelling of international negotiations on climate change,Currently informal and formal international negotiations on climate change take place in an intensive way since the Kyoto Protocol expires already in 2012. A post-Kyoto regulation to combat global warming is not yet stipulated. Due to rapidly increasing greenhouse-gas emission levels| industrialized countries urge major polluters from the developing world like China and India to participate in a future agreement. Whether these developing countries will do so| depends on the prevailing incentives to participate in international climate protection efforts. This paper identifies ancillary benefits of climate policy to provide important incentives to attend a new international protocol and to positively affect the likelihood of accomplishing a post-Kyoto agreement which includes commitments of developing countries. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1217,2008,3,1,Climate policy architectures for the post-Kyoto world,The global climate has changed and will continue to change as a result of greenhouse gas emissions from a broad variety of human activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has determined earlier that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures is very likely due to the adverse increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. If the emission of these gases continues to grow unabated| the global average temperatures will likely increase considerably. This warming will unleash a myriad of impacts| the vast majority of which will adversely affect water availability| agricultural and forest productivity| the spread of infectious diseases | extreme weather events| unique ecosystems and rare species| and the built environment in coastal areas. The risks of global climate change clearly necessitate on international effort. 9191,2008,4,4,Climate trade-off between black carbon and carbon dioxide emissions,There are various difficulties involved with comparing the effects of short-lived and long-lived atmospheric species on climate. Global warming potentials (GWPs) can be computed for pulse emissions of short-lived species. However| if the focus is on the long-term effect of a pulse emission occurring today| GWPs do not factor in the fact that if a radiative forcing is applied for a short period| the climate system has time to relax back to equilibrium. The concept of global temperature change potential (GTP) at a time horizon for an emission pulse has been proposed to circumvent this problem. Here we show how GTPs can be used to compare black carbon (BC) and CO(2) emissions and the methodology is illustrated with two concrete examples. In particular we discuss a trade-off situation where a decrease in BC emissions is associated with a fuel penalty and therefore an additional CO(2) emission. A parameter--which depends on the BC radiative effects| the BC emission reduction and the additional CO(2) emission-is defined and can be compared to a critical parameter to assess whether or not the BC emission reduction wins over the fuel penalty for various time horizons. We show how this concept can be generalised to compare the climate effects of carbon dioxide against a set of short-lived species and to account for differences in climate efficacy. Finally| the need for additional research is discussed in the light of current uncertainties. Crown Copyright (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1110,2008,2,4,Climate variability in Mexico: some hydrological| social| and economic impacts,Environmental pollution is closely related to the economic growth of nations. According to future development scenarios| an accelerated increase in pollutants it is expected in the near future. In order to correlate climate change with different terrestrial impacts| the energy balance is explained highlighting the presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Results indicate that Mexican agriculture has suffered the negative impacts of this process in terms of climatic uncertainty and has caused| along with other factors| agricultural field emigration of thousands of rural people. Consequences of global climate change are accounted in terms of precipitation anomalies| water availability and reduction in agricultural productivity according to biological simulation under different climate scenarios. It is concluded that there is a need of action mechanisms and scientific questions to be answered through research. 9021,2008,2,4,Climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere based on the use of an atmosphere-ocean IPCC model,Forced and natural variability of modelled and observed Atlantic Ocean temperature and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is studied. In the observations and in a forced climate model run| we find increasing temperature at 1000 in in the Atlantic (20N). SVD analysis shows that;| for both model data and observations| a high index of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) corresponds to negative temperature anomaly at 1000 m to the north of 55N| although geographical details of temperature anomaly distribution are different for the model and observations. Particular attention has been paid to the influence of the fresh water flux due to the present global warning on the slowing down of the AMOC. It is shown that fresh water flux change is only a secondary cause of reduced AMOC in global warming conditions| while heat flux change is probably the main reason. Finally| it is shown that internal model AMOC variability is positively correlated with the near-surface air temperature in Atlantic-European Arctic sector on a 10-year time scale. 8874,2008,2,4,Climate warming in winter affects the coupling between phytoplankton and bacteria during the spring bloom: a mesocosm study,The response of the phytoplankton and bacterial spring succession to the predicted warming of sea surface temperature in temperate climate zones during winter was studied using an indoor-mesocosm approach. The mesocosms were filled with winter water from the Kiel Fjord| Baltic Sea. Two of them were started at similar to 2 degrees C and the temperature was subsequently increased according to the decadal temperature profile of the fjord (Delta T 0 degrees C| baseline treatment). The other mesocosms were run at 3 elevated temperatures with differences of Delta T +2| +4 and +6 degrees C. All mesocosms were exposed to the same light conditions. Timing of peak phytoplankton primary production (PP) during the experimental spring bloom was not significantly influenced by increasing temperatures| whereas the peak of bacterial secondary production (BSP) was accelerated by about 2 d per degrees C. This suggests that| in case of warming| the spring peak of bacterial degradation of organic matter (in terms of BSP) would occur earlier in the year. Furthermore| the lag time between the peaks of PP and BSP (about 16 d for Delta T 0 degrees C) would diminish progressively at elevated temperatures. The average ratio between BSP and PP increased significantly from 0.33 in the coldest mesocosms to 0.63 in the warmest ones. Community respiration and the contribution of picoplankton (<3 mu m fraction) to this also increased at elevated temperatures. Our results lead to the prediction that climate warming during the winter/early spring in temperate climate zones will favor bacterial degradation of organic matter by tightening the coupling between phytoplankton and bacteria. However| if PP is reduced by warming| as in our experiments| this will not necessarily lead to increased recycling of organic matter (and CO2). 8859,2008,2,4,Climate warming will reduce growth and survival of Scots pine except in the far north,Tree growth and survival were assessed in 283 populations of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) originating from a broad geographic range and grown at 90 common-garden experimental sites across Europe| and in 101 populations grown at 14 sites in North America. Growth and survival were analysed in response to climatic transfer distance| the difference in mean annual temperature (MAT) between the site and the population origin. Differences among populations at each site| and across sites for regional groups of populations| were related to climate transfer distance| but in opposite ways in the northern vs. southern parts of the species range. Climate transfers equivalent to warming by 1-4 degrees C markedly increased the survival of populations in northern Europe (>= 62 degrees N| < 2 degrees C MAT) and modestly increased height growth >= 57 degrees N but decreased survival at < 62 degrees N and modestly decreased height growth at < 54 degrees N latitude in Europe. Thus| even modest climate warming will likely influence Scots pine survival and growth| but in distinct ways in different parts of the species range. 9033,2008,2,4,Climate warming| dispersal inhibition and extinction risk,Global warming impels species to track their shifting habitats or adapt to new conditions. Both processes are critically influenced by individual dispersal. In many animals| dispersal behaviour is plastic| but how organisms with plastic dispersal respond to climate change is basically unknown. Here| we report the analysis of interannual dispersal change from 16 years of monitoring a wild population of the common lizard| and a 12-year manipulation of lizards' diet intended to disentangle the direct effect of temperature rise on dispersal from its effects on resource availability. We show that juvenile dispersal has declined dramatically over the last 16 years| paralleling the rise of spring temperatures during embryogenesis. A mesoscale model of metapopulation dynamics predicts that in general dispersal inhibition will elevate the extinction risk of metapopulations exposed to contrasting effects of climate warming. 1137,2008,2,4,Climate Warming| Marine Protected Areas and the Ocean-Scale Integrity of Coral Reef Ecosystems,Coral reefs have emerged as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variation and change. While the contribution of a warming climate to the loss of live coral cover has been well documented across large spatial and temporal scales| the associated effects on fish have not. Here| we respond to recent and repeated calls to assess the importance of local management in conserving coral reefs in the context of global climate change. Such information is important| as coral reef fish assemblages are the most species dense vertebrate communities on earth| contributing critical ecosystem functions and providing crucial ecosystem services to human societies in tropical countries. Our assessment of the impacts of the 1998 mass bleaching event on coral cover| reef structural complexity| and reef associated fishes spans 7 countries| 66 sites and 26 degrees of latitude in the Indian Ocean. Using Bayesian meta-analysis we show that changes in the size structure| diversity and trophic composition of the reef fish community have followed coral declines. Although the ocean scale integrity of these coral reef ecosystems has been lost| it is positive to see the effects are spatially variable at multiple scales| with impacts and vulnerability affected by geography but not management regime. Existing no-take marine protected areas still support high biomass of fish| however they had no positive affect on the ecosystem response to large-scale disturbance. This suggests a need for future conservation and management efforts to identify and protect regional refugia| which should be integrated into existing management frameworks and combined with policies to improve system-wide resilience to climate variation and change. 1167,2008,2,4,Climate- and resource-driven long-term changes in dormice populations negatively affect hole-nesting songbirds,Global climate change has been shown to cause variable shifts in phenology in a variety of animals and unexpected outcomes across food chains are to be found. Here we examined how rising annual spring temperatures affected the interactions between seed masting| cavity nesting birds and dormice using long-term data from Eastern Czech Republic. We have shown that climate change was associated with unequal shifts in the phenology of two cavity-breeding groups: dormice and birds. Rising spring temperatures have progressively advanced the termination of hibernation for the edible dormouse Glis glis| a common bird predator| leading to an increasing overlap in the use of nesting boxes between dormice and birds. In contrast| only the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis| of the four cavity-nesting bird species| advanced its breeding dates in response to rising temperatures. At the same time| favourable weather conditions| coupled with good seed masting years| have been associated with a substantial rise in dormice numbers. Concurrent with the increasing dormice abundance| the number of bird nests destroyed significantly increased in three out of four bird species. We showed that while there was a significant change in the date that the dormice emerged from hibernation during the course of the study| it did not significantly contribute to predation levels when controlling for their abundance and timing of breeding in birds. We found that the increasing dormice abundance was the main factor causing high brood losses in birds| while the timing of breeding in birds had a variable effect between bird species. This study illustrates how changes in climate might affect organisms at various trophic levels with often unexpected outcomes. Limited evidence from other study organisms suggests that species most at risk are those at different trophic levels that do not shift at the same rate or in the same direction as their food resources| predators or competitors. 1131,2008,2,3,Climate-driven range dynamics of the freshwater limpet| Ancylus fluviatilis (Pulmonata| Basommatophora),Aim Our aim was to understand the processes that have shaped the present-day distribution of the freshwater limpet Ancylus fluviatilis sensu stricto in order to predict the consequences of global climate change for the geographical range of this species. Location North-western Europe. Methods We sampled populations of A. fluviatilis sensu stricto over the entire range of the species (north-western Europe) and sequenced 16S ribosomal RNA (16S) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) mitochondrial fragments to perform phylogenetic and phylogeographical analyses. Climatic niche modelling allowed us to infer the climatic preferences of the species. A principal components analysis identified the most important climatic factors explaining the actual range of A. fluviatilis. We also identified which climatic factor was the most limiting at range margins| and predicted the species' geographical range under a climate change scenario [Community Climate Model 3 (CCM3)]. Results By means of the phylogeographical analysis| we infer that A. fluviatilis sensu stricto occupied northern refuges during the Last Glacial Maximum. We show that the climatic preferences of Baltic populations are significantly different from those of Central European populations. The projection of the occupied area under the CCM3 climate model predicts a moderate poleward shift of the northern range limits| but a dramatic loss of areas currently occupied| for instance in northern Germany and in southern Great Britain. Main conclusions The post-glacial range dynamics of A. fluviatilis are not governed by niche conservatism. Therefore| we must be cautious about bioclimatic model predictions: the expected impact of climate change could be tempered by the adaptive potential this species has already shown in its evolutionary history. Thus| modelling approaches should rather be seen as conservative forecasts of altered species ranges as long as the adaptive potential of the organisms in question cannot be predicted. 8750,2008,2,4,Climate-related increase in the prevalence of urolithiasis in the United States,An unanticipated result of global warming is the likely northward expansion of the present-day southeastern U.S. kidney stone "belt." The fraction of the U.S. population living in high-risk zones for nephrolithiasis will grow from 40% in 2000 to 56% by 2050| and to 70% by 2095. Predictions based on a climate model of intermediate severity warming (SRESa1b) indicate a climate-related increase of 1.6-2.2 million lifetime cases of nephrolithiasis by 2050| representing up to a 30% increase in some climate divisions. Nationwide| the cost increase associated with this rise in nephrolithiasis would be $0.9-1.3 billion annually (year-2000 dollars)| representing a 25% increase over current expenditures. The impact of these changes will be geographically concentrated| depending on the precise relationship between temperature and stone risk. Stone risk may abruptly increase at a threshold temperature (nonlinear model) or increase steadily with temperature change (linear model) or some combination thereof. The linear model predicts increases by 2050 that are concentrated in California| Texas| Florida| and the Eastern Seaboard; the nonlinear model predicts concentration in a geographic band stretching from Kansas to Kentucky and Northern California| immediately south of the threshold isotherm. 8481,2008,2,4,Climatic change and wetland desiccation cause amphibian decline in Yellowstone National Park,Amphibians are a bellwether for environmental degradation| even in natural ecosystems such as Yellowstone National Park in the western United States| where species have been actively protected longer than anywhere else on Earth. We document that recent climatic warming and resultant wetland desiccation are causing severe declines in 4 once-common amphibian species native to Yellowstone. Climate monitoring over 6 decades| remote sensing| and repeated surveys of 49 ponds indicate that decreasing annual precipitation and increasing temperatures during the warmest months of the year have significantly altered the landscape and the local biological communities. Drought is now more common and more severe than at any time in the past century. Compared with 16 years ago| the number of permanently dry ponds in northern Yellowstone has increased 4-fold. Of the ponds that remain| the proportion supporting amphibians has declined significantly| as has the number of species found in each location. Our results indicate that climatic warming already has disrupted one of the best-protected ecosystems on our planet and that current assessments of species' vulnerability do not adequately consider such impacts. 8714,2008,2,3,Climatic changes associated with a global "2 degrees C-stabilization" scenario simulated by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model,In this study| concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases as well as the anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load and stratospheric ozone concentrations are prescribed to the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model so that the simulated global warming does not exceed 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial times. The climatic changes associated with this so-called "2 degrees C-stabilization" scenario are assessed in further detail| considering a variety of meteorological and oceanic variables. The climatic changes associated with such a relatively weak climate forcing supplement the recently published fourth assessment report by the IPCC in that such a stabilization scenario can only be achieved by mitigation initiatives. Also| the impact of the anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load and stratospheric ozone concentrations on the simulated climatic changes is investigated. For this particular climate model| the 2 degrees C-stabilization scenario is characterized by the following atmospheric concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases: 418 ppm (CO(2))| 2|026 ppb (CH(4))| and 331 ppb (N(2)O)| 786 ppt (CFC-11) and 486 ppt (CFC-12)| respectively. These greenhouse gas concentrations correspond to those for 2020 according to the SRES A1B scenario. At the same time| the anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load and stratospheric ozone concentrations are changed to the level in 2100 (again| according to the SRES A1B scenario)| with a global anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emission of 28 TgS/year leading to a global anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load of 0.23 TgS. The future changes in climate associated with the 2 degrees C-stabilization scenario show many of the typical features of other climate change scenarios| including those associated with stronger climatic forcings. That are a pronounced warming| particularly at high latitudes accompanied by a marked reduction of the sea-ice cover| a substantial increase in precipitation in the tropics as well as at mid- and high latitudes in both hemispheres but a marked reduction in the subtropics| a significant strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient between the tropical upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere in the extratropics accompanied by a pronounced intensification of the westerly winds in the lower stratosphere| and a strengthening of the westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics throughout the troposphere. The magnitudes of these changes| however| are somewhat weaker than for the scenarios associated with stronger global warming due to stronger climatic forcings| such as the SRES A1B scenario. Some of the climatic changes associated with the 2 degrees C-stabilization are relatively strong with respect to the magnitude of the simulated global warming| i.e.| the pronounced warming and sea-ice reduction in the Arctic region| the strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient at the northern high latitudes and the general increase in precipitation. Other climatic changes| i.e.| the El Nino like warming pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the corresponding changes in the distribution of precipitation in the tropics and in the Southern Oscillation| are not as markedly pronounced as for the scenarios with a stronger global warming. A higher anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load (for 2030 as compared to the level in 2100 according to the SRES A1B scenario) generally weakens the future changes in climate| particularly for precipitation. The most pronounced effects occur in the Northern Hemisphere and in the tropics| where also the main sources of anthropogenicsulphate aerosols are located. 9068,2008,4,2,Climatic response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols versus well-mixed greenhouse gases from 1850 to 2000 AD in CLIMBER-2,The Earth system model CLIMBER-2 is extended by a scheme for calculating the climatic response to anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions. The scheme calculates the direct radiative forcing| the first indirect cloud albedo effect| and the second indirect cloud lifetime effect induced by geographically resolved sulphate aerosol burden. The simulated anthropogenic sulphate aerosol burden in the year 2000 amounts to 0.47 TgS. The best guesses for the radiative forcing due to the direct effect are -0.4 W m(-2) and for the decrease in short-wave radiation due to all aerosol effects -0.8 W m(-2). The simulated global warming by 1 K from 1850 to 2000 caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases reduces to 0.6 K when the sulphate aerosol effects are included. The model's hydrological sensitivity of 4%/K is decreased by the second indirect effect to 0.8%/K. The quality of the geographically distributed climatic response to the historic emissions of sulphur dioxide and greenhouse gases makes the extended model relevant to computational efficient investigations of future climate change scenarios. 1341,2008,2,4,Climatic seasonality| resource bottlenecks| and abundance of rainforest birds: implications for global climate change,We demonstrate that within-year climatic variability| particularly rainfall seasonality| is the most significant variable explaining spatial patterns of bird abundance in Australian tropical rainforest. The likely mechanism causing this pattern is a resource bottleneck (insects| nectar| and fruit) during the dry season that limits the population size of many species. The patterns support both the diversity-climatic-stability hypothesis and the species-energy hypothesis but clearly show that seasonality in energy availability may be a more significant factor than annual totals or means. An index of dry season severity is proposed that quantifies the combined effect of the degree of dryness and the duration of the dry season. We suggest that the predicted increases in seasonality due to global climate change could produce significant declines in bird abundance| further exacerbating the impacts of decreased range size| increased fragmentation| and decreased population size likely to occur as a result of increasing temperature. We suggest that increasing climatic seasonality due to global climate change has the potential to have significant negative impacts on tropical biodiversity. 8418,2008,2,4,Climatological Reproducibility Evaluation and Future Climate Projection of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Baiu Season Using a High-Resolution Non-Hydrostatic RCM in Comparison with an AGCM,This paper studies an evaluation of climatological reproducibility and one of future climate projections of extreme precipitation in the Baiu season (from mid-May to July) around Japan using data of numerical experiments. The models are a non-hydrostatic cloud-system-resolving atmospheric model with a horizontal grid size of 5 km (5km-NHM) utilized as a regional climate model (RCM)| and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a horizontal resolution of about 20 kin (20km-AGCM) which provided the boundary condition of 5km-NHM. Ten-year runs were performed by the time-slice method. The mean precipitation amount of the three heaviest precipitation events that ranked in order of precipitation amount in every year (P(Top3)) at each grid point was used as an index to examine quantitatively extreme precipitation within a specific term with various precipitation accumulation periods (APs). The 5km-NHM experiment reproduced P(Top3) much better than that of 20km-AGCM| especially for shorter APs. In the projection of P(Top3) in the future climate with 5km-NHM| ratio in two climate states of P(Top3) for longer APs and that of precipitation amount show the roughly same pattern. The increase areas of those were localized around Kyushu| Japan. In particular| the P(Top3) for longer APs was projected to increase 30-70% in the mountainous areas along the Pacific coast of western Japan. This increase was due to a cyclonic circulation of an incremental low-pressure generated on the western side of Kyushu. On the other hand| large increases of P(Top3) for shorter APs spread widely with a scattered pattern to the area where precipitation decreases. Ibis characteristic was associated with the intensification of precipitation due to global warming. 8790,2008,2,4,Closing the carbon budget of estuarine wetlands with tower-based measurements and MODIS time series,Compared to other ecosystems| estuarine ecosystems have distinct carbon flux dynamics - the lateral carbon flux incurred by tidal activities| and methane generation under the anaerobic conditions of wetland soils. The conventional estimation of gross primary production (GPP) based on the light use efficiency (LUE) model used for non-wetland terrestrial ecosystems| therefore| cannot be applied directly to estuarine wetland ecosystems. In this paper| we estimated the 2005's annual carbon budget of an estuarine wetland on Chongming Island| Shanghai| and partitioned the losses of carbon due to lateral tidal dynamics and anaerobic methane production using an innovative technique. The average GPP calculated from eddy covariance between March and November was 261.79 mu mol m(-2) day(-1)| whereas that from the LUE model was 58.84 mu mol m(-2) day(-1). The correlation coefficient between GPP simulated from the LUE model and that calculated from flux tower data was low in the growing season (R(2)=0.55). We hypothesized that tidal activities and uncounted methane release were responsible for the difference| which can be predicted from measurements of remote sensing products such as land surface water index (LSWI)| evapotranspiration (ET)| and tide height (TH). We developed an integrated GPP model by combining the LUE model and an autoregression model to estimate carbon budget. The average GPP from the modified model increased to 263.38 mu mol m(-2) day(-1)| and R(2) for the correlation between the simulated and calculated data increased to 0.88| demonstrating the potential of our technique for GPP estimation and quantification of seasonal variation in estuarine ecosystems. The approach developed in this study has great potential for correcting unavoidable errors when estimating carbon budget of coastal wetlands. Furthermore| global warming is expected to accelerate sea level rise| which may enhance the effect of tidal activities and increase the difficulty in estimating coastal carbon budgets using conventional methods. 1260,2008,2,4,Cloud immersion alters microclimate| photosynthesis and water relations in Rhododendron catawbiense and Abies fraseri seedlings in the southern Appalachian Mountains| USA,The high altitude spruce-fir (Abies fraseri (Pursh) Poiret.-Picea rubens Sarg.) forests of the southern Appalachian Mountains| USA| experience frequent cloud immersion. Recent studies indicate that cloud bases may have risen over the past 30 years| resulting in less frequent forest cloud immersion| and that further increases in cloud base height are likely in the event of continued climate warming. To assess the impact of this trend on the regeneration of high altitude spruce-fir forests and the migration of plant communities| in particular the encroachment of spruce-fir forests and Rhododendron catawbiense Michx. islands into adjacent grass bald communities| we investigated effects of cloud immersion on photosynthetic parameters of seedlings of Abies fraseri and R. catawbiense in a grass bald site and A. fraseri in a forest understory. Although photosynthetic photon flux was 4.2 to 19.4-fold greater during clear conditions| cloud immersion had no effect on photosynthesis in A. fraseri at either site| whereas it reduced photosynthesis of R. catawbiense by about 40%. However| cloud immersion increased mean leaf fluorescence by 7.1 to 12.8% in both species at both sites. Cloud immersion increased mean relative humidity from 65 to 96%| reduced transpiration by 95% and reduced mean leaf-to-air temperature difference from 6.6 to 0.5 degrees C. 1102,2008,3,3,CO(2) Capture and Transport,International interests in CO(2) capture and storage (CCS)| as a method of reducing carbon dioxide emissions linked to global climate change| has been growing in recent years. CCS is particularly attractive for large industrial facilities| especially electric power plants| which contribute a large share of global CO(2) emissions from combustion of coal and other fossil fuels. This paper describes the current status of technologies to capture CO(2) and transport it to a storage site. The performance and cost of capture technologies are discussed| along with related environmental issues and the outlook for improved| lower-cost strategies. The key need now is financing of full-scale demonstrations of CCS at the various types of large coal-based power plants. 9203,2008,3,3,CO(2) storage possibilities in karstik regions: A case study from southwestern Turkey,In Turkey| the three power plants (Yataan| Yenikoy| and Kemerkoy) in the southwestern part of Anatolia use Upper Miocene-Pliocene coal and cause environmental pollution in the winter. For this reason| some considerations have been given to the injection of CO(2) from the power plants into the crust. A research project has been put into the practice for decreasing of global warming. Karstification and geological features| which are included in very thick carbonate rocks (a thickness over 2|000 m and limestone| dolomite| and marble from Paleozoic to Pliocene)| and faults-lineaments have been considered as very important agents that will affect the injection of CO(2). The micro- and macro-karstification and lineament of the region have been studied| and the rocks of the area have been grouped into two classes based on the appropriateness of karstification as suitable and unsuitable rocks. Karstic and geological features (rocks and dislocation lines) have been compared together in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS); thus| by taking note of the geological-geomorphological characteristics of the area| a case study has been proposed for the CO(2) injection from the Gokova power plant emissions with GIS applications| and suitable areas for the injection have been determined for further research. 9084,2008,4,3,CO(2) threshold for millennial-scale oscillations in the climate system: implications for global warming scenarios,We present several equilibrium runs under varying atmospheric CO(2) concentrations using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). The model shows two very different responses: for CO(2) concentrations of 400 ppm or lower| the system evolves into an equilibrium state. For CO(2) concentrations of 440 ppm or higher| the system starts oscillating between a state with vigorous deep water formation in the Southern Ocean and a state with no deep water formation in the Southern Ocean. The flushing events result in a rapid increase in atmospheric temperatures| degassing of CO(2) and therefore an increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentrations| and a reduction of sea ice cover in the Southern Ocean. They also cool the deep ocean worldwide. After the flush| the deep ocean warms slowly again and CO(2) is taken up by the ocean until the stratification becomes unstable again at high latitudes thousands of years later. The existence of a threshold in CO(2) concentration which places the UVic ESCM in either an oscillating or non-oscillating state makes our results intriguing. If the UVic ESCM captures a mechanism that is present and important in the real climate system| the consequences would comprise a rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of several tens of ppm| an increase in global surface temperature of the order of 1-2 degrees C| local temperature changes of the order of 6 degrees C and a profound change in ocean stratification| deep water temperature and sea ice cover. 1095,2008,2,4,Co-regulation of redox processes in freshwater wetlands as a function of organic matter availability?,Wetlands have important filter functions in landscapes but are considered to be the biggest unknowns regarding their element dynamics under global climate change. Information on sink and source function of sulphur| nitrogen| organic matter and acidity in wetlands is crucial for freshwater regeneration. Recent results indicate that redox processes are not completely controlled by the sequential reduction chain (that is electron acceptor availability) but that electron donor availability may be an important regulator. Our hypothesis was that only sites which are limited in their electron donor availability low concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC)) follow the concept of the sequential reduction chain. We compared the results of two freshwater wetland systems: 1) three forested fens within a boreal spruce catchment in a low mountain range in southern Germany (high DOC regime) and 2) three floodplain soils within a groundwater enrichment area in the Rhein valley in northwest Switzerland (low DOC regime). Micro scale investigations (a few cm) with dialyse chambers as well as soil solution and groundwater concentrations at the forested fens (high DOC regime) indicated simultaneous consumption of nitrate and sulphate with release of iron| manganese and methane (CH4) as well as an enrichment in stable sulphur isotopes indicating a co-existence of processes attributed to different redox gradients. Soil and aquifer gas measurements down to 4.6 m at the groundwater enrichment site (low DOC regime and carbon limitation) showed extreme high rates of metabolism with carbon dioxide (CO2)| dinitrous oxide (N2O) and CH4 concentrations reaching fifty| thirty and three times atmospheric concentrations| respectively. Simultaneously| groundwater oxygen (O-2) saturation was between 50 and 95%. We concluded that independent of DOC regime the sequential reduction chain was not a suitable concept in our systems. Instead of electron acceptor or donor availability micro site variability might explain the co-existence of redox processes within our sites. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8774,2008,3,3,CO2| GDP and RET: An aggregate economic equilibrium analysis for Turkey,There is a worldwide interest in renewable electricity technologies (RETs) due to growing concerns about global warming and climate change. As an EU candidate country whose energy demand increases exponentially| Turkey inevitably shares this common interest on RET. This study| using an aggregate economic equilibrium model| explores the economic costs of different policy measures to mitigate CO2 emissions in Turkey. The model combines energy demands| capital requirements and labor inputs at a constant elasticity of substitution under an economy-wide nested production function. Growing energy demand| triggered by economic growth| is met by increased supply and initiates new capacity additions. Investment into RET is encouraged via the incorporation of (a) endogenous technological learning through which the RET cost declines as a function of cumulative capacity| and (b) a willingness to pay (WTP) function which imposes the WTP of consumers as a lower bound on RET installation. The WTP equation is obtained as a function of consumer income categories| based on data gathered from a pilot survey in which the contingent valuation methodology was employed. The impacts of various emission reduction scenarios on GDP growth and RET diffusion are explored. As expected| RET penetration is accelerated under faster technological learning and higher WTP conditions. It is found that stabilizing CO2 emissions to year 2005 levels causes economic losses amounting to 17% and 23% of GDP in the years 2020 and 2030| respectively. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8563,2008,2,4,Coastal flood management in Semarang| Indonesia,Semarang is one of the biggest cities in Indonesia and is nowadays suffering from coastal flooding. Land subsidences| high water tide| and inadequate structural measures play important roles in the coastal inundations. Structural and non-structural methods for controlling coastal flooding including dykes| drainage systems| pump stations| polder systems| coastal-land reclamations| coastal planning and management| public education| as well as the establishment of an institutional framework for disaster management have been implemented in the Semarang coastal area. Although some improvements have been made| the current flood management system has generally failed to address a wide range of coastal inundation problems. Some improvement actions have been proposed including stakeholders involvement on the disaster mitigation. For a long period coastal management| accelerated sea level rises due to global warming should also be taken into account. 9011,2008,3,4,Coconut water as a potential resource for cellulose acetate membrane preparation,BACKGROUND: Cellulose acetate membranes are frequently used for pressure-driven membrane processes. The aim of this work was to prepare cellulose acetate membranes from nata-de-coco using coconut water as starting material. The use of this lignin-free material will certainly minimize the use of chemicals usually needed in the traditional pulps and substitute for the use of wood| which helps prevent global warming and preserves nature as well. RESULTS: Coconut water was fermented by Acetobacter xylinum for 6 days to produce nata-de-coco| which was then acetylated to produce cellulose diacetate with an acetyl content of 39.6%. Fourier transform infrared analysis showed characteristic peaks for the acetyl group at 1748 and 1236 cm(-1). The resulting membranes made from the hydrolysis product showed a water flux of 210.5 L m(-2) h(-1) under an applied pressure of 2 kg cm(-2) while the rejection coefficients of dextran T-500 and T-2000 solutions were 78 and 93.7%| respectively. CONCLUSION: Coconut water has a potential to be used in the fabrication of membranes by converting it to nata-de-coco and then to cellulose diacetate which gives an added value to its original nature. It is also highly competitive compared to the traditional pulps| by which acetylation decreases the degree of crystallinity of nata-de-coco resulting in higher membrane permeability. (c) 2007 Society of Chemical Industry. 9161,2008,2,4,Colimitation of decomposition by substrate and decomposers - a comparison of model formulations,Decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) is limited by both the available substrate and the active decomposer community. The understanding of this colimitation strongly affects the understanding of feedbacks of soil carbon to global warming and its consequences. This study compares different formulations of soil organic matter ( SOM) decomposition. We compiled formulations from literature into groups according to the representation of decomposer biomass on the SOM decomposition rate a) non-explicit ( substrate only)| b) linear| and c) non-linear. By varying the SOM decomposition equation in a basic simplified decomposition model| we analyzed the following questions. Is the priming effect represented? Under which conditions is SOM accumulation limited? And| how does steady state SOM stocks scale with amount of fresh organic matter (FOM) litter inputs? While formulations ( a) did not represent the priming effect| with formulations ( b) steady state SOM stocks were independent of amount of litter input. Further| with several formulations ( c) there was an offset of SOM that was not decomposed when no fresh OM was supplied. The finding that a part of the SOM is not decomposed on exhaust of FOM supply supports the hypothesis of carbon stabilization in deep soil by the absence of energy-rich fresh organic matter. Different representations of colimitation of decomposition by substrate and decomposers in SOM decomposition models resulted in qualitatively different long-term behaviour. A collaborative effort by modellers and experimentalists is required to identify formulations that are more or less suitable to represent the most important drivers of long term carbon storage. 1307,2008,2,3,Combination of elevated CO2 concentration and elevated temperature and elevated temperature only promote photosynthesis of Quercus mongolica seedlings,One-year-old oak (Quercus mongolica Fisch.) seedlings were grown in growth chambers for 30 days to investigate the effects of the combination of elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]| 700 mu mol/mol) and temperature (ambient T + 4 degrees C) and only elevated temperature (ambient T +4 degrees C) on leaf gas exchange| chlorophyll a fluorescence| and chlorophyll content. In the growth chambers| natural conditions of the Maoershan mountain regions of Heilongjiang Province (45-46 degrees N| 127-128 degrees E) of China for the average growth season were simulated. The results showed that the maximum net photosynthetic rate (P-Nmax) was approximate to 1.64 times greater at elevated temperature than at ambient temperature. The irradiance saturation point (I-s)| apparent quantum yield (AQY)| maximum photosystem II efficiency (F-v/F-m)| and chlorophyll content significantly increased| while irradiance compensation point (I (c)) was not affected by elevated temperature. The combination of elevated [CO2] and temperature also significantly increased P-Nmax by approximately 34% but much lower than that under elevated temperature only. In the case of factor combination| dark respiration (R-d)| I-c| F-v/F-m| and total chlorophyll content increased significantly| while I-s and AQY were not affected. Moreover| under elevated [CO2] and temperature| R-d and I-c| F-v/F-m were significantly higher than under elevated temperature only. The results indicated that the combination of elevated [CO2] and temperature expected in connection with the further global climate change may affect carbon storage of the coenotype of Q. mongolica in this region of China. 9259,2008,2,4,Combined effects of temperature and a pesticide on the Baltic amphipod Monoporeia affinis,Effects of elevated temperature| in combination with exposure to the fungicide fenarimol| on reproduction in the deposit-feeding Baltic amphipod Monoporeia affinis were investigated. Previously| fenarimol was found to cause endocrine disruption in other crustacean species| via the ecdysteroid system. M. affinis were exposed to elevated temperature and/or fenarimol in soft-bottom microcosms during sexual maturation and mating. Elevated temperature and fenarimol (0.7 mg l(-1)) acted synergistically and increased the number of females with dead eggs| with a more than 4-fold incidence compared to exposure to one of the stressors (24 vs. < 5 %). Exposure to both stressors also resulted in a negative intrinsic rate of increase| which might indicate a population decline in the field. Elevated temperature impaired sexual maturation in males and females| lowered the number of fertilised females| reduced fecundity and altered embryogenesis. Exposure to fenarimol resulted in a 40 % decrease in ecdysteroid levels in sexually mature males and an increase in heat shock protein 60 expression. Ecdysteroid levels were not affected by temperature in either sex or stage of sexual maturation. Our results suggest that increase in the water temperature due to| e.g.| global warming would impair reproduction and possibly increase the sensitivity of M affinis to toxicants. 1092,2008,2,4,COMBINED EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE AND CARBON DIOXIDE ON PLANT GROWTH AND SUBSEQUENT SEED GERMINABILITY OF SILENE NOCTIFLORA,Effects of global climate change on invasive alien species of plants and on the resulting progeny have received little attention. We examined the combined effects of temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) on plant growth and physiological characteristics| reproductive yield components| and subsequent germination patterns of fresh- and dry-stored seeds of night-flowering catchfly (Silene noctiflora). Plants were grown under two temperature regimes (22 degrees/18 degrees C and 28 degrees/24 degrees C) at ambient (370 mu mol mol(-1)) and elevated (740 mu mol mol(-1)) CO2 concentrations in controlled-environment growth chambers. Higher temperature reduced plant height; average individual leaf area; capsule length| width| and mass; sound seed number; and mass per capsule but increased specific leaf mass. Elevated CO2 increased single sound seed mass. Higher temperature decreased both percentage and rate of germination| whereas elevated CO2 decreased germination percentage but increased germination rate. Seed germination increased with storage duration. Higher temperature increased transpiration. However| elevated CO2 decreased transpiration but increased net CO2 assimilation and water use efficiency. Elevated CO2 increased chlorophyll b but decreased chlorophyll a : b ratio. Ethylene production was enhanced by increased temperature. We conclude that despite the negative effects of higher temperature on some plant characteristics| S. noctiflora has the potential to thrive under conditions of climate change. 1119,2008,2,4,Combining MODIS and Landsat imagery to estimate and map boreal forest cover loss,Estimation of forest cover change is important for boreal forests| one of the most extensive forested biomes| due to its unique role in global timber stock| carbon sequestration and deposition| and high vulnerability to the effects of global climate change. We used time-series data from the MODerate Resolution imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to produce annual forest Cover loss hotspot maps. These maps were used to assign all blocks (18.5 by 18.5 km) Partitioning the boreal biome into strata of high| medium and low likelihood of forest cover loss. A stratified random sample of 118 blocks was interpreted for forest cover and forest cover loss using high spatial resolution Landsat imagery from 2000 and 2005. Area of forest cover gross loss from 2000 to 2005 within the boreal biome is estimated to be 1.63% (standard error 0.10%) of the total biome area| and represents a 4.02% reduction in year 2000 forest cover. The proportion of identified forest cover loss relative to regional forest area is much higher in North America than in Eurasia (5.63% to 3.00%). Of the total forest cover loss identified| 58.9% is attributable to wildfires. The MODIS pan-boreal change hotspot estimates reveal significant increases in forest Cover loss due to wildfires in 2002 and 2003| with 2003 being the peak year of loss within the 5-year Study period. Overall| the precision of the aggregate forest cover loss estimates derived from the Landsat data and the Value of the MODIS-derived map displaying the spatial and temporal patterns of forest loss demonstrate the efficacy of this protocol for operational| cost-effective| and timely biome-wide monitoring of gross forest cover loss. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 8663,2008,5,4,Common tree growth anomalies over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the last six centuries: implications for regional moisture change,The world's hydrological cycle is believed to intensify with global warming| yet current climate models have only a limited ability to assess moisture responses at regional scales. Tree-ring records are a valuable source of information for understanding long-term| regional-scale moisture changes| particularly for large regions such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP)| where the observational data are short and sparse. Here| we present a new ring-width chronology developed from Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii) wood at two sites on the northeastern TP. This chronology| combined with others from the same region| demonstrates that tree growth anomalies are linked to regional late spring to early summer moisture availability. Although late monsoon season precipitation in the study area decreased during recent decades| tree growth continued to increase due to persistent moisture availability in the early monsoon season. Comparison with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) indicates that early (late) monsoon season precipitation is closely related to tropical Pacific (Indian Ocean) SSTs| suggesting a possible seasonal shift in the dominant moisture source area for monsoonal precipitation over the northeastern TP. It is further shown that there is a very high degree of coherency regarding low-frequency tree growth anomalies over the northeastern TP during the last six centuries. The most prominent drought epoch occurred during ca. 1450-1500| which may have been caused by a significant decrease in the thermal gradient between the Eurasian continent and the tropical oceans. A persistent tree growth increase since the 1880s is coincident with global warming| suggesting an intensified early monsoon season moisture regime in the study area. 1078,2008,3,4,Communication and Marketing As Climate Change-Intervention Assets A Public Health Perspective,The understanding that global climate change represents a profound threat to the health and well-being of human and nonhuman species worldwide is growing. This article examines the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behavior in ways consistent with climate change prevention and adaptation objectives. Specifically| using a framework based on an ecologic model of public health| the paper examines: (1) the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behaviors of concern| including support for appropriate public policies; (2) potential target audiences for such programs; and (3) the attributes of effective climate change messages. Communication and marketing interventions appear to have considerable potential to promote important population behavior change objectives| but there is an urgent need for additional translational research to effectively harvest this potential to combat climate change. 1281,2008,2,4,Community level adaptation to climate change: The potential role of participatory community risk assessment,This paper explores the value of using community risk assessments (CRAs) for climate change adaptation. CRA refers to participatory methods to assess hazards| vulnerabilities and capacities in support of community-based disaster risk reduction| used by many NGOs| community-based organizations| and the Red Cross/Red Crescent. We review the evolution of climate change adaptation and community-based disaster risk reduction| and highlight the challenges of integrating global climate change into a bottom-up and place-based approach. Our analysis of CRAs carried out by various national Red Cross societies shows that CRAs can help address those challenges by fostering community engagement in climate risk reduction| particularly given that many strategies to deal with current climate risks also help to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Climate change can also be explicitly incorporated in CRAs by making better use of CRA tools to assess trends| and by addressing the notion of changing risks. However| a key challenge is to keep CRAs simple enough for wide application. This demands special attention in the modification of CRA tools; in the background materials and trainings for CRA facilitators; and in the guidance for interpretation of CRA outcomes. A second challenge is the application of a limited set of CRA results to guide risk reduction in other communities and to inform national and international adaptation policy. This requires specific attention for sampling and care in scaling up qualitative findings. Finally| stronger linkages are needed between organizations facilitating CRAs and suppliers of climate information| particularly addressing the translation of climate information to the community level. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8932,2008,2,4,Comparative analysis of expressed sequence tag (EST) libraries in the seagrass Zostera marina subjected to temperature stress,Global warming is associated with increasing stress and mortality on temperate seagrass beds| in particular during periods of high sea surface temperatures during summer months| adding to existing anthropogenic impacts| such as eutrophication and habitat destruction. We compare several expressed sequence tag (EST) in the ecologically important seagrass Zostera marina (eelgrass) to elucidate the molecular genetic basis of adaptation to environmental extremes. We compared the tentative unigene (TUG) frequencies of libraries derived from leaf and meristematic tissue from a control situation with two experimentally imposed temperature stress conditions and found that TUG composition is markedly different among these conditions (all P<0.0001). Under heat stress| we find that 63 TUGs are differentially expressed (d.e.) at 25 degrees C compared with lower| no-stress condition temperatures (4 degrees C and 17 degrees C). Approximately one-third of d.e. eelgrass genes were characteristic for the stress response of the terrestrial plant model Arabidopsis thaliana. The changes in gene expression suggest complex photosynthetic adjustments among light-harvesting complexes| reaction center subunits of photosystem I and II| and components of the dark reaction. Heat shock encoding proteins and reactive oxygen scavengers also were identified| but their overall frequency was too low to perform statistical tests. In all conditions| the most abundant transcript (3-15%) was a putative metallothionein gene with unknown function. We also find evidence that heat stress may translate to enhanced infection by protists. A total of 210 TUGs contain one or more microsatellites as potential candidates for gene-linked genetic markers. Data are publicly available in a user-friendly database at http://www.uni-muenster.de/Evolution/ebb/Services/zostera. 8502,2008,2,4,Comparative analysis of soil microbial communities and their responses to the short-term drought in bog| fen| and riparian wetlands,The frequency of drought is anticipated to increase in wetland ecosystems as global warming intensifies. However| information on microbial communities involved in greenhouse gas emissions and their responses to drought remains sparse. We compared the gene abundance of eubacterial 16S rRNA| nitrite reductase (nirS) and methyl coenzyme M reductase (mcrA)| and the diversity and composition of eubacteria| methanogens and denitrifiers among bog| fen and riparian wetlands. The gene abundance| diversity and composition significantly differed among wetlands (p < 0.01) with the exception of the diversity of methanogens. The gene abundance was ranked in the order of the bog = fen > riparian wetland| whereas the diversity was in the riparian wetland >= fen > bog. In addition| we conducted a short-term drought experiment and compared microbial communities between control (water-logged) and drought (-15 cm) treatments. Drought led to significant decline in the gene abundance in the bog (16S rRNA| nirS| mcrA) (p < 0.01) and fen (16S rRNA| nirS) (p < 0.05)| but not in the riparian wetland. There were no differences in the diversity and composition of denitrifiers and methanogens at all sites following drought. Our results imply that denitrifiers and methanogens inhabiting bogs and fens would suffer from short-term droughts| but remain unchanged in riparian wetlands. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8409,2008,2,4,Comparison of carbon and water vapor exchange of forest and grassland in permafrost regions| Central Yakutia| Russia,Boreal grasslands have been largely neglected in carbon and water vapor flux models despite being originated by past global climate changes. Therefore in this study| meteorological conditions| water vapor and CO(2) fluxes were measured by the eddy correlation technique simultaneously in a larch forest and alas ecosystem (grassland thermokarst depression) in Central Yakutia| eastern Siberia| during the growing season of 2006 (approximately 100 days| May 23rd-August 31st). The alas ecosystem was a carbon sink (-1.38 tC ha(-1)) but had a 60% lower carbon sequestration capacity than the surrounding larch forest (-3.44 tC ha(-1)) during the study period. Despite this large difference in carbon exchange| water loss from the alas ecosystem (118 mm) was only 13% lower than that from the forest ecosystem (136 mm). Water vapor flux measured in the alas was higher under similar environmental conditions when the source was the lake water than when the source was the grassland. This supports the theory that lake evaporation contributes significantly to the evaporation from the alas as indicated also by the lake water level constant decrease during the growing season. Mid-summer forest and alas mean evapotranspiration was 1.4 and 1.2 mm d(-1) respectively. Mean daily canopy conductance was higher in the forest than in the alas (3.8 and 2.4 mm s(-1)| respectively) as expected due to differences in canopy architecture at each site. In this study a rough estimate of the NEE of grassland in Central Yakutia shows an underestimation of 0.9 x 10(-3) Pg if this area is considered as forested| as most regional models do. Our results suggest that a more detail analysis of distinctive areas within the territory of eastern Siberia is needed in order to obtain a better understanding of carbon and water fluxes from this immense boreal region. Furthermore| if the present global warming evokes landscape change from forest to grassland| the carbon sink capacity of this boreal region could be significantly reduced. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8697,2008,3,4,Comparison of Environmental Effects and Resource Consumption for Different Wastewater and Organic Waste Management Systems in a New City Area in Sweden,An analysis of the environmental effects and resource consumption by four systems for management of wastewater and organic household waste in a new city area have been performed| as follows: (1) conventional system complemented with advanced sludge treatment for phosphorus recovery| (2) blackwater system with urine diversion and food waste disposers| (3) blackwater system with food waste disposers and reverse osmosis| and (4) local wastewater treatment plant with nutrient recovery by using reverse osmosis. Substance-flow analysis and energy/exergy calculations were performed by using the software tool URWARE/ORWARE. Emissions were calculated and classified based on the impact categories global warming potential| acidification| and eutrophication| according to ISO14042 (2000). The analysis also included nutrient recovery (i.e.| the potential to use nutrients as a fertilizer). Depending on which aspects are prioritized| different systems can be considered to be the most advantageous. Water Environ. Res.| 80| 708 (2008). 8468,2008,3,4,Comparison of Life Cycle Emissions and Energy Consumption for Environmentally Adapted Metalworking Fluid Systems,A number of environmentally adapted lubricants have been proposed in response to the environmental and health impacts of metalworking fluids (MWFs). The alternatives typically substitute petroleum with vegetable-based components and/or deliver minimum quantities of lubricant in gas rather than water| with the former strategy being more prevalent than the latter. A comparative life cycle assessment of water- and gas-based systems has shown that delivery of lubricants in air rather than water can reduce solid waste by 60%| water use by 90%| and aquatic toxicity by 80%| while virtually eliminating occupational health concerns. However| air-delivery of lubricants cannot be used for severe machining operations due to limitations of cooling and lubricant delivery. For such operations| lubricants delivered in supercritical carbon dioxide (ScCO2) are effective while maintaining the health and environmental advantages of air-based systems. Although delivery conditions were found to significantly influence the environmental burdens of all fluids| energy consumption was relatively constant under expected operating conditions. Global warming potential (GWP) increased when delivering lubricants in gas rather than water though all classes of MWFs have low GWP compared with other factory operations. It is therefore concluded that the possibility of increased GWP when switching to gas-based MWFs is a reasonable tradeoff for definite and large reductions in aquatic toxicity| water use| solid waste| and occupational health risks. 8641,2008,2,4,Comparison of NOM character in selected Australian and Norwegian drinking waters,Observations from many countries around the world during the past 10-20 years indicate increasing natural organic matter (NOM) concentration levels in water sources| due to issues such as global warming| changes in soil acidification| increased drought severity and more intensive rain events. In addition to the trend towards increasing NOM concentration| the character of NOM can vary with source and time (season). The great seasonal variability and the trend towards elevated NOM concentration levels impose challenges to the water industry and the water treatment facilities in terms of operational optimisation and proper process control. The aim of this investigation was to compare selected raw and conventionally treated drinking water sources from different hemispheres with regard to NOM character which may lead to better understanding of the impact of source water on water treatment. Results from the analyses of selected Norwegian and Australian water samples showed that Norwegian NOM exhibited greater humic nature| indicating a stronger bias of allochthonous versus autochthonous organic origin. Similarly| Norwegian source waters had higher average molecular weights than Australian waters. Following coagulation treatment| the organic character of the recalcitrant NOM in both countries was similar. Differences in organic character of these source waters after treatment were found to be related to treatment practice rather than origin of the source water. The characterisation techniques employed also enabled identification of the coagulation processes which were not necessarily optimised for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) removal. The reactivity with chlorine as well as trihalomethane formation potential (THMFP) of the treated waters showed differences in behaviour between Norwegian and Australian sources that appeared to be related to residual higher molecular weight organic material. By evaluation of changes in specific molecular weight regions and disinfection parameters before and after treatment| correlations were found that relate treatment strategy to chlorine demand and DBP formation. Crown Copyright (D 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8716,2008,2,2,Comparison of suitable drought indices for climate change impacts assessment over Australia towards resource management,Droughts have significant environmental and socio-economic impacts in Australia. This emphasizes Australia's vulnerability to climate variability and limitations of adaptive capacity. Two drought indices are compared for their potential utility in resource management. The Rainfall Deciles-based Drought Index is a measure of rainfall deficiency while the Soil-Moisture Deciles-based Drought Index is a measure of soil-moisture deficiency attributed to rainfall and potential evaporation. Both indices were used to assess future drought events over Australia under global warming attributed to low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SRES BI and AIFI respectively) for 30-year periods centred on 2030 and 2070. Projected consequential changes in rainfall and potential evaporation were based on results from the CCCmal and Mk2 climate models| developed by the Canadian Climate Center and the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) respectively. A general increase in drought frequency associated with global warming was demonstrated by both indices for both climate models| except for the western part of Australia. Increases in the frequency of soil-moisture-based droughts are greater than increases in meteorological drought frequency. By 2030 in the frequency of soil-moisture-based drought frequency increases 20-40% over most of Australia with respect to 1975-2004 and up to 80% over the Indian Ocean and southeast coast catchments by 2070. Such increases in drought frequency would have major implications for natural resource management| water security planning| water demand management strategies| and drought relief payments. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society. 8562,2008,2,4,Consequences of More Extreme Precipitation Regimes for Terrestrial Ecosystems,Amplification of the hydrological cycle as a consequence of global warming is forecast to lead more extreme intra-annual precipitation regimes. characterized by larger rainfall events and longer intervals between events. We present a conceptual framework| based on past investigations and ecological theory| for predicting the consequences of this underappreciated aspect of climate change. We consider a brand range of terrestrial ecosystems that vary in their over-all mater balance. More extreme rainfall regimes are expected to increase the duration and severity of soil water water stress in mesic ecosystems as intervals between rainfall events increase. In contrast| xeric ecosystems may exhibit the opposite response to extreme events. Larger but less frequent rainfall events may result in proportional reductions in evaporative losses in xenic systems| and thus may lead to greater soil water availability Hydric (wetland) ecosystems are predicted to experience reduced periods of anoxia in response to prolonged intervals between rainfall events. Understanding these contingent effects of ecosystem canter balance is necessary for predicting how nun e intervals precipitation regimes will modify ecosystem processes and alter interactions with related global change drivers. 1306,2008,2,4,Conservation status and biogeography of Australia's terrestrial mammals,This paper attempts to identify and explain patterns in the biogeography of Australia's indigenous terrestrial mammals at the time of European settlement (before modern extinctions)| and also compares species' pre-European and current status by region. From subfossil| historical and contemporary sources| we compiled data on the past geographic range and present status of mammals for Australia's 85 biogeographic regions. Of the 305 indigenous species originally present| 91 have disappeared from at least half of the bioregions in which they occurred before European settlement. Thirty-nine extant species 'persist' in less than 25% of their original bioregions; 28 of these are marsupials and 11 are rodents. Twenty-two of the original 305 species are extinct| a further eight became restricted to continental islands| and 100 have become extinct in at least one bioregion. Over the same period| 26 species of exotic mammals established wild populations and now occupy from one to 85 bioregions. When we classified the bioregions in terms of their original species composition| the 3-group level in the dendrogram approximated the Torresian| Eyrean and Bassian subregions proposed by Spencer in 1898| while the 4-group level separated southern semiarid Eyrean bioregions| including those in south-west Australia| from the arid Eyrean bioregions. The classification dendrogram showed geographically (and statistically) discrete clustering down to the 19-group level| suggesting that all four subregions can be further divided on the basis of their mammal faunas. Variation partitioning showed 66% of the biogeographical pattern can be explained by environmental factors (related to temperature and precipitation)| the spatial position of each bioregion (a third-order polynomial of latitude and longitude)| the area of each bioregion| and the richness of species in each bioregion. In addition to the marked distributional changes that indigenous mammals have experienced over the last 200 years| the 49% of variation explainable by temperature and precipitation implies further shifts with global climate change. 8658,2008,5,4,Continental-scale tree population response to rapid climate change| competition and disturbance,Aim Using a new approach to analyse fossil pollen data| we investigate temporal and spatial patterns in Populus (poplar| cottonwood| aspen) from the Late Glacial to the present at regional to continental scales. Location North America. Methods We extracted data on the timing and magnitude of the maximum value of Populus pollen from each pollen diagram in the North American Pollen Database (NAPD). The information was plotted in histograms of 150-year bins to identify times when Populus was abundant on the landscape. We also mapped the maximum values to identify spatial patterns and their causes. Results Our analyses show that there have been several periods since the Late Glacial when Populus was abundant on the landscape: (1) from 12.35 to 12.65 kyr BP| in eastern North America| largely in response to the opening of the forest following the onset of the Younger Dryas; (2) from 10.85 to 11.75 kyr BP| following the termination of the Younger Dryas; and (3) during the last 150 years| as land was cleared for agricultural use| especially in the midwestern United States. Main conclusion Since the Late Glacial| changes in the abundance of Populus were caused more by the effects of abrupt climate change on its major competitors| rather than the direct effects of climate on Populus itself. 8460,2008,3,3,Contrail avoidance in the aircraft design process,As aviation is one of the fastest growing industrial sectors world wide| air-traffic emissions are projected to increase their stake in the contribution to global warming. According to studies| both carbon dioxide and contrails are the principal air-traffic pollutants| whereas the impact from contrails in terms of radiative forcing is possibly larger than that of all other air-traffic pollutants combined. New regulations with the objective of mitigating contrail occurrences might cause a change in the design requirements of aircraft. In light of this| a method considering contrail formation during the aircraft design process is presented in this paper. Aircraft performance and optimisation is carried out with NASA's flight optimisation system. Combining historical meteorological data with air-traffic data enables an assessment regarding contrail formation. As an example| a particular aircraft type in terms of range| speed and payload is optimised for minimum block fuel consumption considering different altitudes. The change in contrail formation in terms of contrail-km formed is calculated. The results suggest that if aircraft of the considered class were designed for higher altitudes| contrail occurrences would diminish slightly at a non-negligible fuel burn penalty. 8484,2008,3,4,Control of Biomass Composition for Optimum Injection in Blast Furnace to Mitigate CO(2) Emission in Ironmaking Process,Decrease of carbon dioxide emission is a Serious Subject in the steel industry. Although low reducing agent operation of blast furnace is a primary method in ironmaking| many different ways should be taken. Utilization of biomass as a carbon-neutral reducing agent is an attractive one for ironmaking. However| since the calorific value is relatively low as an injection material and the oxygen content derived from the functional group is higher than coal. the direct injection of raw biomass into the blast furnace is not favorable. Optimized carbonization of biomass is proposed to keep high carbon yield and to attain selective oxygen removal by controlling the atmosphere. heating time and temperature condition. In carbonization| it was clarified that the carbonization of biomass from 300 to 500 degrees C in the inert gas atmosphere improves the replacement ratio of coke and the crushability by intentionally changing the biomass composition and structure. It was estimated that the combustibility of the carbonized biomass became similar to Pulverized coal. The effect of carbonized biomass injection into blast furnace was estimated with Rist diagram. The injection of biomass carbonized in the optimized condition effectively decreases CO(2) emission from the ironmaking process. 1209,2008,2,2,Control of the annual cycle in birds: endocrine constraints and plasticity in response to ecological variability,This paper reviews information from ecological and physiological studies to assess how extrinsic factors can modulate intrinsic physiological processes. The annual cycle of birds is made up of a sequence of life-history stages: breeding| moult and migration. Each stage has evolved to occur at the optimum time and to last for the whole duration of time available. Some species have predictable breeding seasons| others are more flexible and some breed opportunistically in response to unpredictable food availability. Photoperiod is the principal environmental cue used to time each stage| allowing birds to adapt their physiology in advance of predictable environmental changes. Physiological (neuroendocrine and endocrine) plasticity allows non-photoperiodic cues to modulate timing to enable individuals to cope with| and benefit from| short-term environmental variability. Although the timing and duration of the period of full gonadal maturation is principally controlled by photoperiod| non-photoperiodic cues| such as temperature| rainfall or food availability| could potentially modulate the exact time of breeding either by fine-tuning the time of egg-laying within the period of full gonadal maturity or| more fundamentally| by modulating gonadal maturation and/or regression. The timing of gonadal regression affects the time of the start of moult| which in turn may affect the duration of the moult. There are many areas of uncertainty. Future integrated studies are required to assess the scope for flexibility in life-history strategies as this will have a critical bearing on whether birds can adapt sufficiently rapidly to anthropogenic environmental changes| in particular climate change. 8443,2008,4,3,Controls of Global-Mean Precipitation Increases in Global Warming GCM Experiments,This paper examines the controls on global precipitation that are evident in the transient experiments conducted using coupled climate models collected for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The change in precipitation| water vapor| clouds| and radiative heating of the atmosphere evident in the 1% increase in carbon dioxide until doubled (1pctto2x) scenario is examined. As noted in other studies| the ensemble-mean changes in water vapor as carbon dioxide is doubled occur at a rate similar to that predicted by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. The ratio of global changes in precipitation to global changes in water vapor offers some insight on how readily increased water vapor is converted into precipitation in modeled climate change. This ratio epsilon is introduced in this paper as a gross indicator of the global precipitation efficiency under global warming. The main findings of this paper are threefold. First| increases in the global precipitation track increase atmospheric radiative energy loss and the ratio of precipitation sensitivity to water vapor sensitivity is primarily determined by changes to this atmospheric column energy loss. A reference limit to this ratio is introduced as the rate at which the emission of radiation from the clear-sky atmosphere increases as water vapor increases. It is shown that the derived efficiency based on the simple ratio of precipitation to water vapor sensitivities of models in fact closely matches the sensitivity derived from simple energy balance arguments involving changes to water vapor emission alone. Second| although the rate of increase of clear-sky emission is the dominant factor in the change to the energy balance of the atmosphere| there are two important and offsetting processes that contribute to epsilon in the model simulations studied: One involves a negative feedback through cloud radiative heating that acts to reduce the efficiency; the other is the global reduction in sensible heating that counteracts the effects of the cloud feedback and increases the efficiency. These counteracting feedbacks only apply on the global scale. Third| the negative cloud radiative heating feedback occurs through reductions of cloud amount in the middle troposphere| defined as the layer between 680 and 440 hPa| and by slight global cloud decreases in the lower troposphere. These changes act in a manner to expose the warmer atmosphere below to high clouds| thus resulting in a net warming of the atmospheric column by clouds and a negative feedback on the precipitation. 8525,2008,5,4,Cool-Climate or Warm-Spike Lateritic Bauxites at High Latitudes?,Laterites and bauxites and their associated Ultisols and Oxisols are widespread in warm-wet climates today| and their spread to high latitudes has been attributed to episodes of past global warming. Bauxitic paleosols from the Early Eocene Monaro Volcanics of southeastern Australia have been claimed as exceptions formed in a cool-wet climate. Re-examination and chemical analysis of a sequence of intrabasaltic paleosols in the Bega no. 7 core of radiometrically dated Monaro Volcanics now show highly variable paleotemperature and precipitation. The core includes 53 successive paleosols| mostly nonbauxitic| but bauxitic paleosols reveal local spikes in warmth and precipitation coincident with early Eocene (55-| 52-| 51-| and 48-Ma) global spikes of warmth| precipitation| and high atmospheric CO(2). These bauxitic paleosols thus formed in warm-wet| not cool-dry| climates| and their poleward spread coincided with global greenhouse spikes. 9202,2008,4,7,Cooling of atmosphere due to CO2 emission,The writers investigated the effect of CO2 emission on the temperature of atmosphere. Computations based on the adiabatic theory of greenhouse effect show that increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere results in cooling rather than warming of the Earth's atmosphere.
8682,2008,3,3,Cooperative water network system to reduce carbon footprint,Much effort has been made in reducing the carbon footprint to mitigate climate change. However| water network synthesis has been focused on reducing the consumption and cost of freshwater within each industrial plant. The objective of this study is to illustrate the necessity of the cooperation of industrial plants to reduce the total carbon footprint of their water supply systems. A mathematical optimization model to minimize global warming potentials is developed to synthesize (1) a cooperative water network system (WNS) integrated over two plants and (2) an individual WNS consisting of two WNSs separated for each plant. The cooperative WNS is compared to the individual WNS. The cooperation reduces their carbon footprint and is economically feasible and profitable. A strategy for implementing the cooperation is suggested for the fair distribution of costs and benefits. As a consequence| industrial plants should cooperate with their neighbor plants to further reduce the carbon footprint. 1312,2008,2,2,Coral reef fish and benthic community structure of Bonaire and Curacao| Netherlands Antilles,Coral reefs throughout the Caribbean have suffered the effects of human activities| including overfishing| nutrient pollution| and global climate change. Yet despite systematic deterioration of reef health| there still exists appreciable variability of reef conditions across Caribbean sites. The mid-depth (20 in) fringing reefs of Bonaire and Curacao| in the leeward Netherlands Antilles| remain healthier than reefs on many other Caribbean islands| supporting relatively high fish biomass and high coral cover. Approximately one half of the fish biomass is composed of planktivorous species| with the balance comprised of herbivorous and carnivorous species. Only a small fraction (<7%) of the fish biomass is composed of apex predators| predominantly due to the essential absence of sharks from these reefs. Coral cover across these islands averages 26.6%| with fleshy macroalgae and turf algae covering most of the remaining benthos. Coral cover was not correlated with the biomass of any fish groups| failing to provide a clear link between fish activities (e.g.| herbivory) and the health and persistence of corals. However| there was a strong| positive correlation between macroalgal cover and herbivorous fish biomass. This result is in contrast to previously published reports and may identify a disparity between correlational studies conducted within islands (or nearby islands) versus studies comparing results from across islands. These data provide insights into the structure of reef communities in the southern Caribbean Sea. 8899,2008,3,2,Corrosion behaviour of boiler steels| coatings and welds in flue gas environments,In recent years there has been a steadily increasing focus on energy efficiency as a means to reduce the negative impact of human activity on climate| and in particular the effect that industrial emissions have on changes in the climate| specifically global warming. As far as power generation is concerned| emissions can be limited by maximizing energy efficiency while ensuring high levels of plant reliability. This paper reports on materials development work involving coated heat exchange alloys and the effect of welding of the coated alloys| simulating fabrication| on subsequent corrosion performance under laboratory conditions. Samples of the common boiler steels P91 (9% Cr) and HCM12A (12% Cr) were treated by chemical vapour deposition (CVD) in a pack cementation process to produce Al-rich coatings up to 100 mu m thick. The samples were machined to give bevelled edges for welding. Welding was carried out using commonly available alloy 625 fillet metal. It was found that sound weldments could readily be produced provided that care was taken to limit the heat input during the welding process. Excessive heat input could lead to cracking| but more importantly to dilution of Al in the coating adjacent to the weldment and in segregation of elements (Mo and Nb) in the weldment itself| Both dilution and segregation effects led to decreased corrosion resistance. 8595,2008,3,3,Corrosion issues in nuclear industry today,In the context of global warming| nuclear energy is a carbon-free source of power and so is a meaningful option for energy production without CO2 emissions. Currently| there are more than 440 commercial nuclear reactors| accounting for about 15% of electric power generation in the world| and there has not been a major accident in over 20 years. The world's fleet of nuclear power plants is| on average| more than 20 years old. Even though the design life of a nuclear power plant is typically 30 or 40 years| it is quite feasible that many nuclear power plants will be able to operate for longer than this. 1290,2008,2,4,Costs and benefits of cold acclimation in field-released Drosophila,one way animals can counter the effects of climatic extremes is via physiological acclimation| but acclimating to one extreme might decrease performance under different conditions. Here| we use field releases of Drosophila melanogaster on two continents across a range of temperatures to test for costs and benefits of developmental or adult cold acclimation. Both types of cold acclimation had enormous benefits at low temperatures in the field; in the coldest releases only cold-acclimated flies were able to find a resource. However| this advantage came at a huge cost; flies that had not been cold-acclimated were up to 36 times more likely to find food than the cold-acclimated flies when temperatures were warm. Such costs and strong benefits were not evident in laboratory tests where we found no reduction in heat survival of the cold-acclimated flies. Field release studies| therefore| reveal costs of cold acclimation that standard laboratory assays do not detect. Thus| although physiological acclimation may dramatically improve fitness over a narrow set of thermal conditions| it may have the opposite effect once conditions extend outside this range| an increasingly likely scenario as temperature variability increases under global climate change. 1249,2008,2,4,Coupled barrier island-resort model: 2. Tests and predictions along Ocean City and Assateague Island National Seashore| Maryland,The fate of coastlines and their human settlements under the effects of global climate change will depend critically on the nonlinear dynamics of and feedbacks between shoreline processes and human agency. This hypothesis is explored on the barrier island coastline of Ocean City and Assateague Island National Seashore| Maryland| using a model-coupling natural coastal processes| including erosion| accretion| island overwash| alongshore sediment transport| dune growth and migration| inlet migration and ebb tidal delta growth to economics of tourist resort development through storm damage and beach and dune replenishment. Initiating the model in 1845| the RMS difference between model and measurements of the shoreline position in 2001 is 84.97 m compared to a net onshore migration of 472.2 m and the RMS difference between modeled and measured hotel room density in 2001 is 2950 rooms km(-1) compared to a net gain of 28|824 rooms km(-1). Simulations to year 3400 for a rate of sea level rise of 3.5 mm a(-1) show a steady state barrier island position 158 m further offshore and 0.54 m lower in elevation compared to its natural counterpart. Changing the rate of sea level rise to 10.5 mm a(-1) increases these differences to 288 m and 0.76 m. Changing storminess by increasing the standard deviation of storm size 50% diminishes coupling between resorts and barriers| bringing the natural and coupled attractors into near coincidence. These results suggest that predicted increases in the rate of sea level rise will lead to enhanced vulnerability for Ocean City. 8785,2008,2,2,Coupled model simulations of climate changes in the 20th century and beyond,Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics| Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS)| including the "Climate of the 20th century experiment"| "CO(2) 1% increase per year to doubling experiment" and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change| three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000| the global mean temperature increases about 0.5 degrees C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century| which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model's ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 16 degrees C in the CO(2) doubling experiment and 1.5 degrees C and 2.4 degrees C in the A1B and B1 scenarios| respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS| in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming. 1166,2008,3,3,Cow power: the energy and emissions benefits of converting manure to biogas,This report consists of a top-level aggregate analysis of the total potential for converting livestock manure into a domestic renewable fuel source (biogas) that could be used to help states meet renewable portfolio standard requirements and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the US| livestock agriculture produces over one billion tons of manure annually on a renewable basis. Most of this manure is disposed of in lagoons or stored outdoors to decompose. Such disposal methods emit methane and nitrous oxide| two important GHGs with 21 and 310 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide| respectively. In total| GHG emissions from the agricultural sector in the US amounted to 536 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide equivalent| or 7% of the total US emissions in 2005. Of this agricultural contribution| 51 to 118 MMT of carbon dioxide equivalent resulted from livestock manure emissions alone| with trends showing this contribution increasing from 1990 to 2005. Thus| limiting GHG emissions from manure represents a valuable starting point for mitigating agricultural contributions to global climate change. Anaerobic digestion| a process that converts manure to methane-rich biogas| can lower GHG emissions from manure significantly. Using biogas as a substitute for other fossil fuels| such as coal for electricity generation| replaces two GHG sources - manure and coal combustion - with a less carbon-intensive source| namely biogas combustion. The biogas energy potential was calculated using values for the amount of biogas energy that can be produced per animal unit (defined as 1000 pounds of animal) per day and the number of animal units in the US. The 95 million animal units in the country could produce nearly 1 quad of renewable energy per year| amounting to approximately 1% of the US total energy consumption. Converting the biogas into electricity using standard microturbines could produce 88 +/- 20 billion kWh| or 2.4 +/- 0.6% of annual electricity consumption in the US. Replacing coal and manure GHG emissions with the emissions from biogas would produce a net potential GHG emissions reduction of 99 +/- 59 million metric tons or 3.9 +/- 2.3% of the annual GHG emissions from electricity generation in the US. 8596,2008,3,1,Cycle Analysis of Low and High H(2) Utilization SOFCs/Gas Turbine Combined Cycle for CO(2) Recovery,Global warming is mainly caused by CO(2) emission from thermal power plants| which burn fossil fuel with air. One of the countermeasure technologies to prevent global warming is CO(2) recovery from combustion flue gas and the|sequestration of CO(2) underground or in the ocean. SOFC and other fuel cells call produce high-concentration CO(2)| because the reformed fuel gas reacts with oxygen electrochemically Without being mixed with air| or diluted by N(2). Thus| we propose to operate the multistage SOFCs under high utilization of reformed fuel for obtaining high-concentration CO(2). In this report| we have estimated the multistage SOFCs' performance considering H(2) diffusion and the combined cycle efficiency of multistage SOFC/gas turbine/CO(2) recovery power plant. The power generation efficiency of our CO(2) recovery combined cycle is 68.5% and the efficiency of conventional SOFC/GT cycle is 57.8% including the CO(2) recovery airline process. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals| Inc. Electron Comm Jpn| 91 (10): 38-45| 2008; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/ecj.10165 1117,2008,5,4,Dating late Quaternary planktonic foraminifer Neogloboquadrina pachyderma from the Arctic Ocean using amino acid racemization,The long-term rate of racemization for amino acids preserved in planktonic foraminifera was determined by using independently dated sediment cores from the Arctic Ocean. The racemization rates for aspartic acid (Asp) and glutamic acid (Glu) in the common taxon| Neogloboquadrina pachyderma| were calibrated for the last 150 ka using (14)C ages and the emerging Quaternary chronostratigraphy of Arctic Ocean sediments. An analysis of errors indicates realistic age uncertainties of about +/- 12% for Asp and +/- 17% for Glu. Fifty individual tests are sufficient to analyze multiple subsamples| identify outliers| and derive robust sample mean values. The new age equation can be applied to verify and refine age models for sediment cores elsewhere in the Arctic Ocean| a critical region for understanding the dynamics of global climate change. 9080,2008,2,4,Death toll exceeded 70|000 in Europe during the summer of 2003,Daily numbers of deaths at a regional level were collected in 16 European countries. Summer mortality was analyzed for the reference period 1998-2002 and for 2003. More than 70|000 additional deaths occurred in Europe during the summer 2003. Major distortions occurred in the age distribution of the deaths| but no harvesting effect was observed in the months following August 2003. Global warming constitutes a new health threat in an aged Europe that may be difficult to detect at the country level| depending on its size. Centralizing the count of daily deaths on an operational geographical scale constitutes a priority for Public Health in Europe. 8708,2008,2,4,Decadal sea level variability in the South Pacific in a global eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast,Sea level variability and related oceanic changes in the South Pacific from 1970 to 2003 are investigated using a hindcast simulation of an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (OGCM) for the Earth Simulator (OFES)| along with sea level data from tide gauges since 1970 and a satellite altimeter since 1992. The first empirical orthogonal function mode of sea level anomalies (SLAs) of OFES exhibits broad positive SLAs over the central and western South Pacific. The corresponding principal component indicates roughly stable high| low| and high SLAs| separated by a rapid sea level fall in the late 1970s and sea level rise in the late 1990s| consistent with tide gauge and satellite observations. These decadal changes are accompanied by circulation changes of the subtropical gyre at 1000-m depth| and changes of upper-ocean zonal current and eddy activity around the Tasman Front. In general agreement with previous related studies| it is found that sea level variations in the Tasman Sea can be explained by propagation of long baroclinic Rossby waves forced by wind stress curl anomalies| if the impact of New Zealand is taken into account. The corresponding atmospheric variations are associated with decadal variability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Thus| decadal sea level variability in the western and central South Pacific in the past three and half decades and decadal ENSO variability are likely to be connected. The sea level rise in the 1990s| which attracted much attention in relation to the global warming| is likely associated with the decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific. 9123,2008,4,4,Decadal variations of intense typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific,The causes of one of the two major oscillation periods| 16 32 years| identified through a wavelet analysis| of the time series of the frequency of intense typhoon (categories 4 and 5 in the Saffir Simpson scale) occurrence for the period 1960 2005 in the western North Pacific (WNP) is studied in this paper. By dividing this period into sub- periods during which the frequency of intense typhoon occurrence was above or below normal on this time scale| various thermodynamic and dynamic factors in each sub- period are examined. During the above-normal periods| the sea surface temperature in the southeastern part of the WNP (5 - 20 degrees N| 150 180 degrees E) is found to be slightly higher. Within this area| the moist static energy (MSE) is also higher and the vertical gradient of saturated MSE in the lower troposphere is more negative. At the same time| the low- level streamfunction anomalies tend to have a negative maximum and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa is also relatively small. Thus| both the thermodynamic and dynamic conditions within this area are more conducive to the development of tropical cyclones (TCs). As these cyclones move northwestward| the favourable dynamic conditions continue to be present so that they can intensify further. The steering flow is such that many of these typhoons will stay over water for an extended period of time through low-latitude recurvature. As a result| they can intensify to become category 4 or 5 typhoons. The conditions during the below- normal periods are generally opposite. A major conclusion from the results of this study is that the frequency of intense typhoon occurrence undergoes a strong multi-decadal (16 32 years) variation due to similar variations in the planetary scale oceanographic and atmospheric conditions that govern the formation| intensification and movement of TCs. These latter variations are largely contributed by the El Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on similar time scales. 8745,2008,3,4,Decomposition of hydrofluorocarbons in a dielectric-packed plasma reactor,This study investigated the decomposition of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) having high global warming potentials by using a dielectric-packed-bed nonthermal plasma reactor with barium titanate beads as the packing material. The target HFCs were 1|1|1|2-tetrafluoroethane (HFC-134a) and 1|1-difluoroethene (HFC-132a). The effects of several parameters such as reaction temperature| oxygen content| and initial concentration on the HFC decomposition efficiency were evaluated. There was essentially no temperature dependence of the HFC decomposition efficiency in the range 150-250 degrees C. The optimum oxygen content for HFC decomposition was found to be about 0.5 vol %. Variations in the initial concentration did not affect the decomposition efficiency. The decomposition products were analyzed| and some decomposition pathways were elucidated. The energy requirements for the decomposition of HFC-134a and HFC-132a were found to be 0.038 and 0.062 mol MJ(-1)| respectively| based on the initial concentrations of 200 and 120 ppm (parts per million| volumetric). 8630,2008,5,4,Decoupling of stalagmite-derived Asian summer monsoon records from North Atlantic temperature change during marine oxygen isotope stage 5d,The Asian monsoon is an important component of the global climate system. Seasonal variations in wind| rainfall| and temperature associated with the Asian monsoon systems affect a vast expanse of tropical and subtropical Asia. Speleothem-derived summer monsoon variation ill East Asia was previously found to be closely associated with millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region between 75 and 10 ka. New evidence recovered from East Asia| however| suggests that the teleconnection between summer monsoon ill East Asia and temperature change in the North Atlantic region may have significantly reduced during 120 to - 110 ka| a period directly after the full last interglaciation and corresponding roughly to marine oxygen isotope stage 5d. This reduction may be due to the low ice volume in the North Hemisphere at that time| which makes the millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region less effective in influencing the Asian Summer monsoon. This is important for investigating the mechanisms controlling the Asian Summer monsoon and the paleoclimatic teleconnection between East Asia and the North Atlantic region| and for predicting monsoon-associated precipitation in East Asia under a global-warming trend. (C) 2008 University of Washington. All rights reserved. 8592,2008,3,4,Decreased emission of nitrous oxide from delivery wards-case study in Sweden,The very potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N(2)O) is widely used as a mild anaesthetic for mothers in delivery work in Sweden. As a part of the Stockholm County Council environmental program it was decided in 2002 that the emissions should be drastically reduced. Different ways were theoretically evaluated| and catalytic splitting to nitrogen and oxygen gas (N(2) and O(2)) was chosen for a demonstration installation. A Japanese commercial unit for treatment of mixed anaesthetic gases (Anesclean (R) from Showa Denko K.K.) was thoroughly modified and installed at the Karolinska University Hospital at Huddinge in Stockholm in 2004. The destruction of N(2)O was optimised and studied for 2 years. Data from both collection and destruction are given in the article. Of the collected N(2)O more than 95% was split to N(2) and O(2) in the very stable system. The overall emission decrease was mainly dependent on the share that could be collected in the specific exhaustion system as compared to the normal room ventilation. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC) were used to evaluate the actual environmental value and economical cost for the process. Important factors are pointed out. 1098,2008,2,3,DEFOLIATION SYNCHRONIZES ABOVEGROUND GROWTH OF CO-OCCURRING C-4 GRASS SPECIES,The aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of grass communities in grasslands and savannas is primarily determined by precipitation quantity. Recent research| motivated by predictions of changes in the distribution of rainfall events by global climate change models| indicates that ANPP may be affected by rainfall distribution as much as by annual totals. Grazing and community composition are also known to affect grassland ANPP. The manner in which interactions between rainfall distribution| grazing| and community composition affect the relationship between precipitation and ANPP represents a critical knowledge gap. The effects of community composition and grazing on aboveground growth responses to intraseasonal variation in water availability were investigated at seven grassland sites with a nonselective clipping experiment. The aboveground growth of the dominant C-4 species at each site was measured at regular intervals for 2-3 growing seasons in the presence or absence of regular defoliation. In the absence of defoliation| there was a general lack of synchrony of intraseasonal growth among co-occurring species. Variation in growth rates was high and was only partially explained by variation in rainfall. Regular defoliation increased growth synchrony at all sites| but changes in growth responses to rainfall varied between sites. These results suggest that community composition will be important in determining ANPP-precipitation relationships under conditions of altered rainfall distribution. However this effect appears to be a result of species responding differently to soil water or other resources rather than to rainfall per se. Grazing may override the effects of community composition by reducing differences in growth patterns between species and has the potential to weaken precipitation controls on ANPP. 1352,2008,2,4,DEGRADATION OF FIELD TERRACES IN THE MALTESE ISLANDS - REASONS| PROCESSES AND EFFECTS,There are several reasons for severe land and terrace degradation in the Maltese Islands| The main reason is the land abandonment which took place from the 1960s. Cultivated fields have constant protection against soil erosion by the crops and the farmer's care for both the field itself and the field terraces| as well as the rubble walls which are part of the cultural heritage in the maltese Islands. Once a rubble wall is broken down| intensive soil erosion starts because then the tracks for the erosion processes are pre-determined.. Usually the natural vegetation is able to reclaim abandoned land in a short period| but the dry| hot| and windy climate in the Maltese Islands creates unfavourable conditions. Starting in autumn every year rainstorms occur and cover the mainly unprotected land with flash floods. Meanwhile it is proven that global climate change is producing heavier rainfall than in previous decades. With the help of old aerial photographs (1957) and high resolution satellite images (Tkonos| 2004) the percentage of abandoned land in the Gnejna Valley in Malta was determined. A Digital Elevation Model gave| via relief analysis| the possibility to assess the possible erosion tracks on an island which has no perennial streams. Field research gave major insight to the composition of the vegetation cover on the abandoned field terraces and other parts of the valley. The results are a forerunner to a solution to the problem in the entire Maltese Islands as well as| probably| other Mediterranean Islands with a dry climate. 8675,2008,2,4,Delayed phenological timing of dragonfly emergence in Japan over five decades,Recent increases in air temperature have affected species phenology| resulting in the earlier onset of spring life-cycle events. Trends in the first appearance of adult dragonflies across Japan were analysed using a dataset consisting of observations from 1953 to 2005. Dynamic factor analysis was used to evaluate underlying common trends in a set of 48 time series. The appearance of the first adult dragonfly has significantly shifted to later in the spring in the past five decades. Generalized linear mixing models suggested that this is probably the result of increased air temperatures. Increased summer and autumn temperatures may provide longer bivoltine periods and a faster growth rate; thus| the second generation| which previously hatched in summer| can emerge in the autumn causing the size of the population of dragonflies that emerge in spring to decrease. It is also possible that reduced dragonfly populations along with human development are responsible for a delay in the first observed dragonflies in the spring. However| human population density did not appear to strongly affect the appearance date. This study provides the first evidence of a delay in insect phenological events over recent decades. 1106,2008,2,4,Delayed reproduction in Arabidopsis thaliana improves fitness in soil with suboptimal phosphorus availability,Low phosphorus availability (low P) often delays flowering and maturity in annual plants| while abiotic stress generally accelerates flowering and maturity. The utility of this response is unknown. We hypothesize that phenological delay in low P is beneficial by permitting more time for phosphorus acquisition and utilization. We grew seven genotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana with contrasting phenology in high and low P. Low P delayed bolting and maturity in all genotypes. Low P decreased root length| but not root-length duration (the integral of root length over time)| because phenological delay allowed low-P plants to compensate for shorter root length. Root-length duration was correlated with phosphorus accumulation. Leaf phosphorus duration (the integral of leaf phosphorus over time) was correlated with reproductive biomass| indicating the utility of increased phosphorus utilization. Phenological delays accounted for up to 30% of biomass production when low-P plants were compared to models of plants with no delays. These results support the hypothesis that phenological delay in low P is adaptive and leads to increased phosphorus acquisition and utilization. Because low P conditions are prevalent| understanding the utility of this response could be useful in crop breeding and in predicting plant responses to global climate change. 8974,2008,2,4,Deltas at risk,The long-term sustainability of populated deltas is often more affected by large-scale engineering projects than sea-level rise associated with global warming and the global ocean volume increase. On deltas| the rate of relative eustatic sea-level rise is often smaller than the rate for isostatic-controlled subsidence and of the same order of magnitude as natural sediment compaction. Accelerated compaction associated with petroleum and groundwater mining can exceed natural subsidence rates by an order of magnitude. The reduction in sediment delivery to deltas due to trapping behind dams| along with the human control of routing river discharge across delta plains| contributes to the sinking of world deltas. Consequences include shoreline erosion| threatened mangroves swamps and wetlands| increased salinization of cultivated land| and hundreds of millions of humans put at risk. 8654,2008,3,3,Demonstration of compression-ignition engine combustion using ammonia in reducing greenhouse gas emissions,This study demonstrated the feasibility of ammonia combustion in compression-ignition diesel engines. Ammonia combustion does not produce carbon dioxide| a known greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming. Using this idea| a method was developed to introduce ammonia into the intake manifold and to inject diesel fuel or biodiesel directly into the cylinder to ignite the mixture. This dual-fuel approach was chosen because ammonia has a high resistance to autoignition. This approach was proven successful in a multicylinder| turbocharged diesel engine. The system developed required only a slight modification of the intake to implement the ammonia fuel line. The existing diesel fuel injection system remained unchanged. A liquid ammonia tank was used for fuel storage| and a high pressure relief valve regulated the ammonia flow rate. Engine combustion phasing (e.g.| ignition) was controlled by diesel fuel injection. Both experiments and chemical kinetic studies were carried out for different diesel/ammonia ratios at various engine speeds and loads. Ammonia was used as an energy replacement for diesel fuel. The results showed that the peak engine torque could be achieved by using different combinations of diesel fuel and ammonia. During testing| a maximum energy replacement of 95% was measured. It should be noted that if more ammonia is added| a higher than rated power can be achieved depending on engine load conditions. This would be similar in practice to adding nitrous oxide to gasoline engines. It was also shown that CO2 emissions were reduced monotonically for the same engine torque output as the amount of the ammonia in the fuel mixture increased. Additionally| burning ammonia in engines does not necessarily increase NOx emissions despite the fuel-bound nitrogen. Lower levels of NOx emissions were obtained as long as energy substitution by ammonia did not exceed 60%. This is thought to occur because of the lower combustion temperature of ammonia. This study also showed that the engine could be operated at different load conditions by using a small quantity of diesel fuel with the appropriate amounts of ammonia to achieve desirable loads. Biodiesel was also used with ammonia at different ratios resulting in successful engine operation. Results of using biodiesel-ammonia were similar to those of using diesel fuel-ammonia. 9198,2008,3,3,Density functional study of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and its hydrogen derivatives,Density functional study has been performed for a group of compounds derived from sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) by consecutively substituting fluorine with hydrogen. SF6 is widely used as the insulating gas in the electrical industry and is recognised as one of the greenhouse gases with extraordinary global warming potential. The aim of the present study is to look for potential industrial alternatives to SF6 as well as to examine mechanisms that can contribute to its faster atmospheric decay. The ground state geometries| binding energies| vibrational spectra| charge distributions| dipole moments| as well as thermodynamic properties for the series of the SF6-nHn (n=0||6) molecules have been obtained and discussed. For comparison| computational results for the SCl6 molecule have also been included in the present study. 8541,2008,5,3,Depth dependency of the Paleocene-Eocene carbon isotope excursion: Paired benthic and terrestrial biomarker records (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 208| Walvis Ridge),The Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) coincided with a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) in carbonate and organic matter| in terrestrial and marine records. Consequently the PETM global warming of 5-6 degrees C has been attributed to the rapid emission of a large amount of isotopically light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system| and the magnitude of the CIE has been used to estimate the amount of carbon greenhouse gas emitted. However| there are large discrepancies between the magnitude of the CIE in marine and in terrestrial material| in different types of marine carbonate records (bulk carbonate| planktic and benthic foraminiferal carbonate)| and in marine carbonate records from different locations. The marine carbonate record of the CIE may be incomplete in most deep-sea (bathyal-abyssal) locations because of ocean acidification and widespread dissolution of seafloor carbonates. We demonstrate that the CIE in benthic foraminiferal stable isotope records is relatively abrupt and not as gradual as portrayed in bulk carbonate records along the Walvis Ridge depth transect (SE Atlantic). The benthic CIE is about -1.5 parts per thousand at 3600 m paleodepth| in contrast to about -3.5 parts per thousand at 1500 m paleodepth| consistent with depth-dependent truncation by carbonate dissolution. Strong covariance between the benthic record and the stable carbon isotope values of terrestrial n-alkanes isolated from the same core (i.e.| Site 1263) supports a relatively rapid excursion of at least -3.5 parts per thousand but no more than -5.0 parts per thousand. 8711,2008,3,3,Design of CO2 absorption plant for recovery of CO2 from flue gases of gas turbine,The ongoing human-induced emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) threatens to change the earth's climate. A major factor in global warming is CO2 emission from thermal power plants| which burn fossil fuels. One possible way of decreasing CO2 emissions is to apply CO2 removal| which involves recovering of CO2 from energy conversion processes. This study is focused on recovery Of CO2 from gas turbine exhaust of Sarkhun gas refinery power station. The purpose of this study is to recover the CO2 with minimum energy requirement. Many Of CO2 recovery processes from flue gases have been studied. Among all CO2 recovery processes which were studied| absorption process was selected as the optimum one| due to low CO2 concentration in flue gas. The design parameters considered in this regard| are: selection of suitable solvent| solvent concentration| solvent circulation rate| reboiler and condenser duty and number of stages in absorber and stripper columns. In the design of this unit| amine solvent such as| diethanolamine (DEA)| diglycolamine (DGA)| methyldiethanolamine (MDEA)| and monoethanolamine (MEA) were considered and the effect of main parameters on the absorption and stripping columns is presented. Some results with simultaneous changing of the design variables have been obtained. The results show that DGA is the best solvent with minimum energy requirement for recovery Of CO2 from flue gases at atmospheric pressure. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1168,2008,2,4,Detection of genetic variation among Indian wheat head scab pathogens (Fusarium spp./isolates) with microsatellite markers,Fusarium head blight (FHB) of wheat is responsible for extensive damage of wheat in humid and semi-humid regions of the world. Presently| FHB of wheat is a minor disease in India but due to global climate change| there is a chance that moist conditions and high humidity resulting from more rainfall during mid-anthesis could increase the susceptibility of wheat to Fusarium infection. For the present study| 27 isolates of three Fusarium spp. viz.| Fusarium graminearum| Fusarium verticillioides and Fusarium oxysporum were isolated from naturally infected wheat sampled from Punjab| Himachal Pradesh and Wellington (Tamil Nadu) during 2000-2003. Genomic DNA was isolated from fresh mycelia using the CTAB method. Fusarium spp./isolates were analyzed with four newly developed microsatellite markers (MS-Fg1353| MS-Fg6808| MS-Fg307 and MS-Fg3654) and six previously published microsatellite markers (MS-Fg97| MS-Fc1| MS-Fg103| MS-Fg30| MS-Fg75 and MS-Fg90). All markers amplified a DNA fragment of variable length for different Fusarium spp./isolates. Microsatellite markers| MS-Fg103| MS-Fg103 did not amplify F. oxysporum and F. verticillioides isolates| respectively. MS-Fg307 amplified a fragment of 200bp with F. graminearum isolates of Wellington. This study has shown that there is considerable genotypic variability among Fusarium spp./isolates causing FHB of wheat in India. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8734,2008,5,4,Determination of (88)Sr/(86)Sr mass-dependent isotopic and radiogenic isotope variation of (87)Sr/(86)Sr in the Neoproterozoic Doushantuo Formation,We measured both mass-dependent isotope fractionation of delta(88)Sr ((88)Sr/(86)Sr) and radiogenic isotopic variation of Sr ((87)Sr/(86)Sr) for the Neoproterozoic Doushantuo Formation that deposited as a cap carbonate immediately above the Marinoan-related Nantuo Tillite. The delta(88)Sr and (87)Sr/(86)Sr compositions showed three remarkable characteristics: (1) high radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr values and gradual decrease in the (87)Sr/(86)Sr ratios| (2) anomalously low delta(88)Sr values at the lower part cap carbonate| and (3) a clear correlation between (87)Sr/(86)Sr and delta(88)Sr values. These isotopic signatures can be explained by assuming an extreme greenhouse condition after the Marinoan glaciation. Surface seawater| mixed with a large amount of freshwater from continental crusts with high (87)Sr/(86)Sr and lighter delta(88)Sr ratios| was formed during the extreme global warming after the glacial event. High atmospheric CO(2) content caused sudden precipitation of cap carbonate from the surface seawater with high (87)Sr/(86)Sr and lighter delta(88)Sr ratios. Subsequently| the mixing of the underlying seawater| with unradiogenic Sr isotope compositions and normal delta(88)Sr ratios| probably caused gradual decrease of the (87)Sr/(86)Sr ratios of the seawater and deposition of carbonate with normal delta(88)Sr ratios. The combination of (87)Sr/(86)Sr and delta(88)Sr isotope systematics gives us new insights on the surface evolution after the Snowball Earth. (C) 2007 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 1091,2008,5,4,Determining the post-glacial evolution of a northeast Pacific coastal fjord using a multiproxy geochemical approach,A 40.32 m piston core recovered from Effingham Inlet| on the west coast of Vancouver Island| provides the basis for a high-resolution geochemical study of the last deglaciation and the Holocene. Glacial retreat| basin isolation| sea-level rise| and productivity variations are determined using proxies for sediment composition (K/Al| Fe/Al| Mg/Al)| grain size (Ti/Al| Zr/Al)| sedimentary redox conditions (Mo/Al| U/Al)| and productivity (wt.% organic carbon| wt.% opal). As local ice retreated and marine waters inundated the basin| coarse-grained glacimarine sediments were replaced by finer grained| laminated| opal-rich sediments. During meltwater pulse-la| the dominance of local crustal rise over eustatic sea-level rise resulted in the progressive restriction of ocean circulation in Effingham Inlet and the formation of a temporary freshwater lake. The transition into stable Holocene conditions was initiated at similar to 12 700 BP| which corresponds to the onset of the Younger Dryas| as identified by the Greenland Ice core Project (GRIP) ice core 6180 record and was completed by 10 700 BP| similar to 800 years after the GRIP ice core record stabilized. Holocene Mo/Al and U/Al ratios range between 12-35 (x 10(4)) and 1-3.4 (x 10(4))| respectively| indicating that although large-amplitude| high-frequency fluctuations Occur| the sediments of Effingham Inlet inner basin have remained organic rich and oxygen depleted for the entire Holocene period. The combination of anoxic bottom waters and a Holocene sedimentation rate of 217 cm/ka have preserved a high-resolution record of environmental change in the northeast Pacific over the last 11 000 years. 1047,2008,2,4,Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning,Climate change may impact water resources management conditions in difficult-to-predict ways. A key challenge for water managers is how to incorporate highly uncertain information about potential climate change from global models into local- and regional-scale water management models and tools to support local planning. This paper presents a new method for developing large ensembles of local daily weather that reflect a wide range of plausible future climate change scenarios while preserving many statistical properties of local historical weather patterns. This method is demonstrated by evaluating the possible impact of climate change on the Inland Empire Utilities Agency service area in southern California. The analysis shows that climate change could impact the region| increasing outdoor water demand by up to 10% by 2040| decreasing local water supply by up to 40% by 2040| and decreasing sustainable groundwater yields by up to 15% by 2040. The range of plausible climate projections suggests the need for the region to augment its long-range water management plans to reduce its vulnerability to climate change. 9239,2008,3,4,Development and environmental improvements of plastics for hydrophilic catheters in medical care: an environmental evaluation,Single-use medical devices have been under close scrutiny for several years| especially the choice of plastic materials. Many different requirements such as medical safety| treatment functionality and efficiency| environmental performance| etc. have to be fulfilled. Today| the most commonly used materials for hydrophilic urinary catheters are polyvinylchloride (PVC) and thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU). In this research study| these two materials' environmental performance was evaluated. In light of the knowledge gained in that study a new plastic material for use in urinary catheters was developed. The aim of the development of this new material was to design a high performance material with superior environmental performance. The newly developed plastic material is a polyolefin-based elastomer. The ecological environmental performance of the new material was evaluated and compared to the existing plastic materials. The study focused exclusively on the choice of plastic materials and their ecological environmental performance. The analysis has been performed using a system perspective and a life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The functional unit has been set to the treatment of one patient during one year. The results from the LCA models have been presented both in terms of direct inventory data| such as energy use and formed emissions| and in terms of the results from four different impact assessment methods. Analysis of the results based on direct inventory data| i.e. common inventory results such as energy resource uses and emissions of CO|| NO| and SO| show an overall better environmental performance for the new polyolefin-based elastomer compared to the existing PVC and TPU plastic materials. The normalization and weighting steps in the analyzes have indicated the importance of energy resource uses and global warming as indicator for the environmental performance even if other impact categories also can play a role. In the environmental impact assessment| the polyolefin-based elastomer showed a clearly better environmental performance than the TPU material. Compared to PVC plastic material the new polyolefin-based elastomer showed an almost equivalent environmental performance. This can be mainly explained by the different materials' energy use. The new material has thus also shown to be an environmentally good alternative to PVC if a PVC-free material is requested. Basing the plastic formula| on simple bulk plastics with low energy use in the production of single-use medical devices| has been shown to be a successful method of producing high quality products with superior environmental performance. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8619,2008,2,4,Development and properties of 0.25-degree gridded evapotranspiration data fields of China for hydrological studies,Construction and spatial and temporal properties for a 0.25 degrees resolution gridded data set of monthly Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration estimates over the territory of the PR China (including Tibet) and adjacent areas (15 degrees N-55 degrees N| 65 degrees E-135 degrees E) for the period 1951-1990 are described. To account for the interaction between climate and the rugged topography of the study area the REGEOTOP procedure was used to incorporate the effects of relief forms into the interpolation. Evapotranspiration rates over much of China show a range of values (annual rates from 550-2300 mm) and variability comparable to precipitation. Monthly evapotranspiration rates are distributed more evenly over the year than precipitation| are out of phase with the summer precipitation peak and in some cases may reach winter rates comparable to those in summer. Hydrological studies based on idealized regular seasonal variation of evapotranspiration may contain considerable errors due to inherent seasonal fluctuations as compared to precipitation. High resolution gridded PET data that account for the influence of topography on climate are required to resolve the spatial heterogeneity of topography and land use in order to allow precise estimates of actual evapotranspiration and run-off. The spatial distribution of runoff appears to have remained fairly constant over most of China during 19511990 which stands in contrast to the anticipated increase in hydrological activity under global warming conditions. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8667,2008,3,4,Development of PCR for WWTP based on a case study,Background| aim| and scope In order to apply the Environmental Product Declaration (EPD) to products or services| specific rules [Product Category Rules (PCR)] have to be issued to ensure comparability among different declarations within the same service group. The aim of the present study is to describe the reasons leading to each choice in the development of PCR applied to Collecting and Treatment Service of Municipal Wastewater and to evaluate| through life cycle analysis (LCA)| their influence on the potential environmental impact of a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP)| analysed as a case study. Specific data were collected during the year 2003 from an Italian active sludge treatment plant with separate wastewater and sludge treatment lines. Materials and methods The PCR 2005:5 (Collecting and treatment service of municipal wastewater (MWW). Product group/service type: refuse disposal| sanitation and similar activities| NACE code:90) document was prepared by the Department of Chemical and Process Engineering "G.B. Bonino" (University of Genoa| Italy). This PCR was tested on the Collection and Treatment Service of Municipal Wastewater in a wastewater treatment plant located in Savona| Italy (Consorzio per la Depurazione delle Acque di Scarico). The PCR 2005:5 document was issued in an open and participatory process between companies and organizations having good knowledge of the specific environmental aspects of the service to be included in the EPD (R) system. PCR| LCA| and EPD studies were developed according to the document "Requirements for an International EPD Scheme" (EU funded LIFE Env 2003 program| INTEND Project| www.intendproject.net). Results The following LCA-based information was considered in preparing the PCR: definition of service type| definition of functional unit| choice and description of system boundaries| choice of cutoff criteria| choice of allocation rules| description of quality requirements for data| choice of selected LCI results or other selected parameters for description of environmental performance to be included in the declaration| description of parameters contributing to each preset category| description of specific information to be included in the use stage of the declaration| other environmental information. Ecotoxicity characterization factors| evaluated by the model Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances (USES-LCA)| was added to the PCR as an Annex. The potential environmental impacts of the considered case study were evaluated separately for the following phases: sewer net and plant construction| sewer net and plant management| sludge management. Alternative sludge management techniques were investigated. Discussion PCR of Collecting and Treatment Service of Municipal Wastewater (MWW) was prepared in an open and participatory process between companies and organizations having in-depth knowledge of the specific environmental aspects of the service| in order to safeguard the provision and input of appropriate product-specific knowledge from relevant companies and branch organizations. The main problems characterizing the open consultation regarded are functional unit| system boundaries| boundary in time| parameters to be declared| and other information. Conclusions The annual amount of treated wastewater was considered as a functional unit. In order to evaluate water quality aspects| the request for additional information [biochemical oxygen demand (BOD)/chemical oxygen demand (COD) and nutrient removal] was added to the PCR document. These characteristics aim to complete the lack of information about wastewater quality due to the use of a fixed amount of wastewater as a functional unit. The following parameters were identified: resources use (use of nonrenewable resources| use of renewable resources| water consumption| electricity consumption)| pollutant emissions as potential environmental impact (global warming| acidification| ozone depletion| photochemical oxidant formation| eutrophication)| and new standard parameters (fresh aquatic ecotoxicity| fresh sediment ecotoxicity| marine aquatic ecotoxicity| marine sediment ecotoxicity). The reference model used for the calculation of toxicity potentials was the global nested multimedia fate| exposure and effects model USES-LCA. The comparison of the LCA results obtained for the considered life cycle phases shows that sewer net and plant construction have less than 10% of the total impacts for all the considered categories. Plant management has a higher impact with respect to sewer net and sludge management. In general| sludge treatment for agricultural land application has a lower impact than its treatment in landfill| but the specific results depend on the impact categories. Recommendations and perspectives One of the most important properties of EPDs is that they provide possibilities to add up and accumulate information along the supply chain as well as to make comparisons between declarations with regard to the environmental performance of products and services. Therefore| the PCR 2005:5 document has been prepared to ensure comparability between declarations within collecting and treatment service of municipal wastewater. However| a new revised version of these rules has to be prepared according to the newly published ISO standard for EPD (ISO 14025) and to the incoming revision document of the international EPD (R) system. 8984,2008,2,4,Diadromous fish conservation plans need to consider global warming issues: An approach using biogeographical models,Most of the European diadromous fish species are endangered and listed in the habitats fauna and flora directive| the bern convention and the IUCN Red List. Current conservation plans do not address global warming issues and consider the 1900 distribution range as the reference without taking into account the potential re-distribution of these species under global warming. However| for other taxa| predictive models have been used successfully to relate conservation assessment with the impact of global warming. We investigated the distribution of the various diadromous species regularly encountered in Europe| North Africa and the Middle East at the beginning of the 20th century. For each species| we related the observed distribution to a set of environmental variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins| the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. We successfully built twenty-one accurate species-specific models out of twenty-eight during both the calibration and the validation phases. Longitude| a factor we interpret as related to biogeographical history| was selected in all models and temperature was included in fifteen models| in six it was the most explanatory variable. These models allowed us to separate the roles of ecology and history in explaining distribution patterns at species level. Historical events such as glaciations constrained the continental distribution of all diadromous species and six of these were also highly temperature-dependent. Based on these results| we claim that these models can be used to predict the potential distribution under changing climatic conditions and provide two relevant examples (i.e. for Alosa alosa and Pe tromyzon marinus). Predictive models could be useful as a preliminary tool to prepare long-term conservation plans on European| national and regional scales. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1314,2008,2,4,Diel and seasonal courses of ambient carbon dioxide concentration and their effect on productivity of the epilithic lichen Lecanora muralis in a temperate| suburban habitat,Ambient CO(2) concentration (together with CO(2) exchange and microclimate) was recorded every 30 ruin for 15 months for Lecanora muralis growing in the Botanical Garden Wurzburg (Germany| northern Bavaria)| a habitat on the outskirts of the city. Annual mean CO(2) was around 17 ppm higher than the global average reported for the time of measurement (361 ppm; 1995/96)| and daily values ranged from 317 to 490 ppm. Diel courses of CO(2) could be classified into three different types. Type A| when CO(2) levels rose overnight and then fell strongly to below global levels during the day| which predominated in the summer (about 75% of days); Type B| irregular diel courses occurred during all seasons with often very rapid changes apparently due to advective CO(2)| transport; Type C| CO(2) concentration was typically almost stable at generally between c. 330 and 430 ppm which predominated in the winter (63% of days). Under controlled conditions| CO(2) saturation of net photosynthesis (NP) of L. muralis at optimal hydration and light occurred at around 1000 ppm. NP was also affected by low CO(2) at limiting light and thallus water contents. Based upon these data| we estimated the improvement of NP of L.. muralis due to transient increase of ambient CO(2) (as compared with the global average) for one selected combination of environmental factors (nocturnal dew or frost). This combination is an important source of water for the lichen| resulting in 40% of its annual production and| especially in these situations| photosynthesis was increased by high ambient CO(2) in the early morning under prevailing Type A conditions. After dew| activation| light compensation point of NP occurred at an average concentration of 413 ppm and diel maxima of NP at 402 ppm. This allows a rough estimate that the transiently elevated CO(2) increased the photosynthetic gain of the lichen after dew of 7%| or an improvement to its annual carbon balance of about 3%. Conditions| especially interrelationships between lichen hydration| light and CO(2) are so complex that we are not yet able to extend our estimates to other environmental situations of photosynthetic activity of L. muralis. 1068,2008,2,4,DIFFERENTIAL EFFECTS OF HIGH TEMPERATURE ON THE RESPIRATION OF JUVENILE CARIBBEAN CORALS,The response of scleractinian recruits to rising temperature will play an important role in determining how coral populations will be affected by global climate change| yet understanding these responses is made difficult by the lack of empirical data. In this study| the effects of elevated temperature (29.3 degrees C vs 27.3 degrees C) oil small colonies (mean diameters of 3-9 mm) of the Caribbean corals Porites spp.| Agaricia spp. (Lamarck| 1801)| Siderastrea siderea (Ellis and Solander| 1786)| and Stephanocoenia intersepta (Lamarck| 1816) were tested by measuring the oxygen diffusion boundary layer (DBL) over the coenosarc in darkness at a constant flow speed of 0.8 cm s(-1). The results were used to estimate the aerobic respiration by means of Fick's first law. Temperature had no effect on the DBL thickness| but there were interactive effects of temperature and taxon on the oxygen concentration adjacent to the tissue and the respiration rates. Between 27.3 degrees C and 29.3 degrees C| the respiration of coenosarc tissue increased dramatically for S. intersepta (Q(10) = 105)| but decreased for Porites spp. (Q(10) = 0.1)| and remained unchanged for Agaricia spp. and S. siderea. These trends are inconsistent with a kinetic model of the effects of temperature on aerobic respiration| and it is hypothesized that they reflect the effects of behavior (e.g.| tissue contraction or altered fluid transport among polyps) in mediating changes in the metabolic activity of the coenosarc. 1172,2008,2,4,Differential sensitivity to cadmium of key mitochondrial enzymes in the eastern oyster| Crassostrea virginica Gmelin (Bivalvia : Ostreidae),Combined effects of cadmium (Cd) and temperature on key mitochondrial enzymes [including Complexes I-IV of electron transport chain and Krebs cycle enzymes citrate synthase (CS)| and NAD- and NADP-dependent isocitrate dehydrogenases (NAD-IDH and NADP-IDH)] were studied in a marine ectotherm| Crassostrea virginica in order to better understand the mechanisms of Cd-induced impairment of mitochondrial function. Matrix enzymes including CS and isocitrate clehydrogenases were the most sensitive to Cd making Krebs cycle a likely candidate to explain Cd-induced impairment of mitochondrial substrate oxidation. CS and NAD-IDH had IC50 of 26 and 65 mu M at the acclimation temperature (15 degrees C and 65 (CS) and 1.5 (NAD-IDH) mu M at elevated temperature (25 degrees C)| respectively. Mitochondrial NADP-IDH was the most sensitive to Cd with IC50 of 14 and 3.4 mu M at 15 degrees and 25 degrees C| respectively. Electron transport chain (ETC) complexes were significantly less sensitive to the direct effects of Cd with IC50 ranging from 260 to >> 400 mu M. Temperature increase led to a higher sensitivity of mitochondrial enzymes to the inhibitory effects of Cd as indicated by a decline in IC50 with the exception of Complex III from gills and CS from gills and hepatopancreas. Cd exposure also resulted in a decrease in activation energy of mitochondrial enzymes suggesting that mitochondria. from Cd-exposed oysters could exhibit reduced capacity to respond to temperature rise with an adequate increase in the substrate flux. These interactive effects of Cd and temperature on mitochondrial enzymes could negatively affect metabolic performance of oysters and possibly other ectotherms in polluted environments during temperature increase such as expected during the global climate change and/or tidal or seasonal warming in estuarine and coastal waters. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1299,2008,2,4,Differentiating migration and dispersal processes for pond-breeding amphibians,Understanding the movement of animals is critical to many aspects of conservation such as spread of emerging disease| proliferation of invasive species| changes in land-use patterns| and responses to global climate change. Movement processes are especially important for amphibian management and conservation as species declines and extinctions worldwide become ever more apparent. To better integrate behavioral and ecological data on amphibian movements with our use of spatially explicit demographic models and guide effective conservation solutions| I present 1) a synopsis of the literature regarding behavior| ecology| and evolution of movement in pond-breeding amphibians possessing biphasic life cycles to distinguish between migration and dispersal processes| 2) a working hypothesis of juvenile-based dispersal| and 3) a discussion of conservation issues that follow from distinguishing the spatial and temporal movements of amphibians at different scales. I define amphibian migration as intrapopulational| round-trip movements toward and away from aquatic breeding sites. Population-level management| in general| can be focused on spatial scales of <1.0 km with attention focused on adult population and juveniles that remain near the natal wetland. I define amphibian dispersal as interpopulational| unidirectional movements from natal sites to other breeding sites. Metapopulation- or landscape-level management can be focused on movements among populations at spatial scales >1.0-10.0 km and on importance of terrestrial connectivity. The ultimate goal of conservation for amphibians should be long-term regional persistence by addressing management issues at both local and metapopulation scales. 1120,2008,4,4,Discovery and measurement of an isotopically distinct source of sulfate in Earth's atmosphere,Sulfate (SO4) and its precursors are significant components of the atmosphere| with both natural and anthropogenic sources. Recently| our triple-isotope (160| 170| 180) measurements of atmospheric sulfate have provided specific insights into the oxidation pathways leading to sulfate| with important implications for models of the sulfur cycle and global climate change. Using similar isotopic measurements of aerosol sulfate in a polluted marine boundary layer (MBL) and primary sulfate (p-SO4) sampled directly from a ship stack| we quantify the amount Of p-SO4 found in the atmosphere from ships. We find that ships contribute between 10% and 44% of the non-sea-salt sulfate found in fine [diameter (D) < 1.5 mu m) particulate matter in coastal Southern California. These fractions are surprising| given that p-SO4 constitutes approximate to 2-7% of total sulfur emissions from combustion sources [Seinfed JH| Pandis SN (2006) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Wiley-Inter-science| New York)]. Our findings also suggest that the interaction Of SO2 from ship emissions with coarse hydrated sea salt particles may lead to the rapid removal Of SO2 in the MBL. When combined with the longer residence time Of p-SO4 emissions in the MBL| these findings suggest that the importance Of p-SO4 emissions in marine environments may be underappreciated in global chemical models. Given the expected increase of international shipping in the years to come| these findings have clear implications for public health| air quality| international maritime law| and atmospheric chemistry. 8704,2008,3,4,Disproportionate available to dissipated energy density model related to emission of CO2 and evaluation of structural energy efficiency,Continuing deterioration of the climate has been attributed to the notoriously low efficiency (30-40%) of power generation plants and energy conversion processes in general. This is not because of the shortcoming of technical know how but rather the lack of effective policy making. The need for a model that can rank the energy based efficiency of housing and building is apparent. Consistency can then be achieved to make check and balance of energy thresholds. The available and dissipated energy density ratio is chosen as the pertinent parameter for reaching the tolerable threshold of CO2 at the time t(center dot). This concept was applied to three models| namely the IPPC (ISP92a)| K-e-a and S&P| each of which would yield different years for the CO2 level to reach 700 ppm as the assumed tolerable level. The estimated years are t(a) = 2090 for IPPC (ISP92a)| t(k) = 2066 for K-e-a and t(center dot) = 2077 for S&P model. Note that the models of IPPC (ISP92a) and K-e-a are| respectively| the upper and lower limits. The time t(center dot) = 2077 to point 6(center dot) in a time plot of the available to dissipated energy density ratio. This happens to correspond with the result for the S&P model that is close to being the average of t(a) and t(k). The means for quantifying the efficiency of stationary structures and high speed vehicles are also defined and computed. The operating efficiency of ordinary buildings can be improved from about 30% to 50% by adapting energy saving technologies. The efficiencies of the Boeing 787-3| -8 and -9 that use 50% composite material air transports were found to be 38.7%| 49.9% and 53.0%| respectively. The metal structure Boeing 757-200 had a considerable lower efficiency of 28%. While the Boeing 787-9 has the highest passenger capacity and hence the largest energy dissipation but it has the highest efficiency| This is because the 787-9 has the lowest dissipation to available energy density ratio. The consideration of energy efficiency is vital to controlling the emission of green house gas such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 1199,2008,2,4,Distribution and environmental limitations of an amphibian pathogen in the Rocky Mountains| USA,Amphibian populations continue to be imperiled by the chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). Understanding where B. dendrobatidis (Bd) occurs and how it may be limited by environmental factors is critical to our ability to effectively conserve the amphibians affected by Bd. We sampled 1247 amphibians (boreal toads and surrogates) at 261 boreal toad (Bufo boreas) breeding sites (97 clusters) along an ill latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains to determine the distribution of B. dendrobatidis and examine environmental factors| such as temperature and elevation| that might affect its distribution. The fungus was detected at 64% of all clusters and occurred across a range of elevations (10303550 m) and latitudes (37.6-48.6 degrees) but we detected it in only 42% of clusters in the south (site elevations higher)| compared to 84% of clusters in the north (site elevations lower). Maximum ambient temperature (daily high) explained much of the variation in Bd occurrence in boreal toad populations and thus perhaps limits the occurrence of the pathogen in the Rocky Mountains to areas where climatic conditions facilitate optimal growth of the fungus. This information has implications in global climate change scenarios where warming temperatures may facilitate the spread of disease into previously un- or little-affected areas (i.e.| higher elevations). This study provides the first regional-level| field-based effort to examine the relationship of environmental and geographic factors to the distribution of B. dendrobatidis in North America and will assist managers to focus on at-risk populations as determined by the local temperature regimes| latitude and elevation. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 8915,2008,2,4,Distribution and multi-annual abundance trends of the copepod Temora longicornis in the US Northeast shelf ecosystem,The average spatial distribution and annual abundance cycle are described for the copepod Temora longicornis from samples collected on broadscale surveys (1977-2006) and along continuous plankton recorder transects (1961-2006) of the US Northeast continental shelf ecosystem. After its annual low in winter| T. longicornis abundance begins to increase in coastal waters with the northern progression of spring conditions. Annual maximum shelf concentrations were found in the more southern inshore waters of the region during the summer months. Abundance throughout most of the ecosystem increased sharply in the early 1990s and remained high through 2001. During this period| the copepod became more numerous and widespread in offshore shelf waters. Abundance declined to approximately average levels in 2002 for the remainder of the time series| but its extended offshore range remained intact. Correlation analysis found that the copepods interannual abundance variability had a significant negative relationship with surface salinity anomalies throughout the ecosystem| with higher correlations found in the northernmost subareas. Temora longicornis abundance in the ecosystem's southernmost subarea (Middle Atlantic Bight) did not increase in the 1990s and was found to be negatively correlated to surface temperature| indicating that continued global warming could adversely impact the copepods annual abundance cycle in this region. 8421,2008,4,4,Distribution of dinoflagellate cysts in surface sediments of the Mackenzie Shelf and Amundsen Gulf| Beaufort Sea (Canada),In order to document long-tern climate cycles and predict future climate trends for the Arctic| we need to look at the geological records to establish the link between historical and pre-historical sea-surface parameters. Dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) are used as proxy indicators of sea-surface parameters (temperature| salinity| sea-ice cover| primary productivity) jointly with transfer functions and a modern dinocyst reference database| to reconstruct the evolution of sea-surface conditions at decadal and millennial timescales. Here we present the surface distribution of recent dinocyst assemblages from 34 surface sediment samples collected on the Mackenzie Slope/Amundsen Gulf during the 2004 CASES (Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study) cruise. Dinocyst concentrations in surface sediments are relatively high outside the Mackenzie plume area and increase gradually eastward toward Amundsen Gulf. The cysts of autotrophic dinoflagellates are dominant throughout the study area| while the maximum abundance of heterotrophic taxa is found within the Mackenzie plume. Hierarchical clustering analyses allowed defining two dinocyst assemblages. Assemblage I is located on the Mackenzie Slope and southern Amundsen Gulf| while Assemblage 11 is located within the Cape Bathurst Polynya area in northern Amundsen Gulf. Both assemblages are dominated by Operculodinium centmcarpum| but are distinguished on the basis of the relative abundance of Islandinium minutum| a taxon generally associated with sea ice. I. minutum is found in lower abundance in the Cape Bathurst Polynya. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1219,2008,2,4,Diurnal photosynthesis| water use efficiency and light use efficiency of wheat under Mediterranean field conditions,Photosynthesis and transpiration rates of wheat leaves (Triticum aestivum L.) were measured at 30 min intervals under Mediterranean field conditions| using Photosynthesis Monitor system (PM-48M). The dynamics of net photosynthetic rate (P-N)| transpiration rate (E-T)| water use efficiency (WUE)| light use efficiency (LUE)| stomatal conductance (g.)| photosynthetically active radiation (PAR)| air temperature (T)| relative humidity (RH)| and atmospheric CO2 concentration (Cm) were quantified at five rainfed wheat sites with the same stages of development (midflowering) along south-to-north and east-to-west transects for eight days in April. Diurnal P-N (3.6 to 6.6 mu mol m(-2) s(-1))| PAR (392 to 564 mu mol m(-2) sec(-1))| LUE (0.006 to 0.015) and WUE (0.0001 to 0.011) did not vary significantly across all five wheat sites (p>0.05). P-N and E-T were strongly coupled and highly correlated with PAR (p<0.001). Best multiple linear regression (MLR) models accounted for 92% of variations in P-N as a function of PAR and E-T| and 90% in E-T as a function of PAR and RH (p<0.001). P-N exhibited a peak at mid-morning| and a photosynthetic midday depression under the limiting effects of high evaporative demand. Diurnal variations in WUE and LUE showed a bimodal behavior with the maximum values in early morning and late afternoon| As the impacts of global climate change become increasingly felt| continuous measurements of climate-crop-soil-management interactions under natural conditions play a pivotal role not only in exploring changes in ecophysiological properties of strategic crops for food security such as wheat but also in devising preventive and mitigative management practices to ensure sustained agricultural productivity. 8572,2008,4,4,Diurnal variation of methane emission from a paddy field under rice cultivation in the Southern Brazil,Methane (CH4) has a global warming potential 23 to 32 times higher than carbon dioxide and its emission rate in rice fields should vary daily with water and soil temperature| and plant metabolism. This study aimed to identify| the appropriate time interval for air sampling in order to quantify the mean daily CH4 emission rate| key information to future studies aiming the derivation of regional indexes of CH4 emission. Three campaigns were performed to evaluate diurnal variation in CH4 emissions (3h interval) from continuously flooded rice (Oryza sativa L. cv. 'IRGA-422 CL') fields at different crop stages (panicle differentiation and ripening) and management systems (conventional tillage-CT and no-tillage-NT) during 2002/2003 crop season in long-term experiment at the Instituto Rio Grandense do Arroz (IRGA)| in Cachoeirinha| RS| Brazil. Static chamber method was used and the air samples collected with polystyrene syringes were analyzed by gas chromatography. Methane emission showed a same diurnal pattern in the three campaigns in the both tillage systems. The maximum range of emission (8-33mg CH(4)m(-2) h(-1)) was observed in the early afternoon (12.00 to 15.00p.m.) followed by a decline to a minimum around midnight to next morning (4-19mg CH4 m(-2) h(-1))| in which fluxes were related to flood water temperature (campaign 1 and 3) or soil temperature (campaign 2). Taking into account the daily emission curves| plus operational aspects like chromatographic analysis of samples into the 24h period after air sampling| the time interval from 9.00 to 12.00a.m. is recommended to studies aiming to evaluate mean daily CH4 emission in rice fields. The close relationship between temperature and methane emission allows its infer about the suitability of the gas sampling procedure for the different rice sub-regions of South of Brazil (littoral region and south of RS| and south of SC) that present the same daily behavior of solar radiation and air temperature. Even this| the appropriateness of this procedure should be tested for these different sub-regions of the South of Brazil but| mainly| for the world regions with diverse climatic conditions. 1042,2008,5,4,Divergence and diversification in North American Psoraleeae (Fabaceae) due to climate change,Background: Past studies in the legume family (Fabaceae) have uncovered several evolutionary trends including differential mutation and diversification rates across varying taxonomic levels. The legume tribe Psoraleeae is shown herein to exemplify these trends at the generic and species levels. This group includes a sizable diversification within North America dated at approximately 6.3 million years ago with skewed species distribution to the most recently derived genus| Pediomelum| suggesting a diversification rate shift. We estimate divergence dates of North American (NAm) Psoraleeae using Bayesian MCMC sampling in BEAST based on eight DNA regions (ITS| waxy| matK| trnD-trnT| trnL-trnF| trnK| trnS-trnG| and rpoB-trnC). We also test the hypothesis of a diversification rate shift within NAm Psoraleeae using topological and temporal methods. We investigate the impact of climate change on diversification in this group by (1) testing the hypothesis that a shift from mesic to xeric habitats acted as a key innovation and (2) investigating diversification rate shifts along geologic time| discussing the impact of Quaternary climate oscillations on diversification. Results: NAm Psoraleeae represents a recent| rapid radiation with several genera originating during the Pleistocene| 1 to 2 million years ago. A shift in diversification rate is supported by both methods with a 2.67-fold increase suggested around 2 million years ago followed by a 8.73-fold decrease 440|000 years ago. The hypothesis that a climate regime shift from mesic to xeric habitats drove increased diversification in affected taxa was not supported. Timing of the diversification rate increase supports the hypothesis that glaciation-induced climate changes during the Quaternary influenced diversification of the group. Nonrandom spatial diversification also exists| with greater species richness in the American Southwest. Conclusion: This study outlines NAm Psoraleeae as a model example of a recent| rapid radiation. Diversification rate shifts in NAm Psoraleeae are not due to current climate regimes as represented by habitat| but instead to past global climate change resulting from Quaternary glaciations. NAm Psoraleeae diversification is a good example of how earthly dynamics including global climate change and topography work together to shape biodiversity. 1072,2008,2,4,Diversity and dynamics of Antarctic marine microbial eukaryotes under manipulated environmental UV radiation,In the light of the predicted global climate change| it is essential that the status and diversity of polar microbial communities is described and understood. In the present study| molecular tools were used to investigate the marine eukaryotic communities of Prydz Bay| Eastern Antarctica| from November 2002 to January 2003. Additionally| we conducted four series of minicosm experiments| where natural Prydz Bay communities were incubated under six different irradiation regimes| in order to investigate the effects of natural UV radiation on marine microbial eukaryotes. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and 18S rRNA gene sequencing revealed a eukaryotic Shannon diversity index averaging 2.26 and 2.12| respectively. Phylogenetic analysis of 472 sequenced clones revealed 47 phylotypes| belonging to the Dinophyceae| Stramenopiles| Choanoflagellidae| Ciliophora| Cercozoa and Metazoa. Throughout the studied period| three communities were distinguished: a postwinter/early spring community comprising dinoflagellates| ciliates| cercozoans| stramenopiles| viridiplantae| haptophytes and metazoans; a dinoflagellate-dominated community; and a diatom-dominated community that developed after sea ice breakup. DGGE analysis showed that size fraction and time had a strong shaping effect on the community composition; however| a significant contribution of natural UV irradiance towards microeukaryotic community composition could not be detected. Overall| dinoflagellates dominated our samples and their diversity suggests that they fulfill an important role in Antarctic coastal marine ecosystems preceding ice breakup as well as between phytoplankton bloom events. 8606,2008,2,4,Diversity in environmental controls of flowering in Australian plants,In adapting their flowering to a particular season of the year| plants utilize a number of environmental inputs. Knowledge of these environmental controls of flowering is important for production in commercial horticulture. Such information is also relevant for assessing whether or not a species is threatened by global warming. Here| for five Australian plant species| we document ways in which the environment regulates their flowering. Spring flowering of Crowea exalata 'Bindelong Compact' reflects a response to increased daily light integral| these plants showing no hint of a true long day photoperiodic response. Higher temperatures not only cause earlier flowering of this Crowea cultivar but also depress flower production (5% loss per 1 degrees C increase). By contrast| another Crowea| 'White Star'| flowers only if exposed to cool temperatures (15 degrees C) at the time of the increase in daily light integral. Thus| in commercial horticulture| synchronous and rapid flowering of Crowea will be possible by shifting plants from shade to high light conditions. In nature| light intensity will also have a major impact on flowering. By contrast| best flowering of Lechenaultia formosa in spring is a response to short photoperiods at high temperature while L. biloba prefers long days and has potentially spring to summer flowering. Whereas rising summer temperatures could have a deleterious effect on flowering of C exalata| global warming may have little impact on L. formosa and L. biloba which flower more profusely in warmer conditions. Another spring flowering species| Verticordia chrysantha| responds both to short days and to exposure to cool temperatures so its survival could be threatened by global warming. For Calytrix fraseri its late summer flowering in nature is explained by its requirement for an exposure to long days. When combined with information previously published for Australian plants| it is clear that there are no simple generalizations to explain why a plant species flowers when it does. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9167,2008,3,3,Diversity of methanogens in ruminants in Queensland,Methane emissions from ruminant livestock represent a loss of carbon during feed conversion| which has implications for both animal productivity and the environment because this gas is considered to be one of the more potent forms of greenhouses gases contributing to global warming. Many strategies to reduce emissions are targeting the methanogens that inhabit the rumen| but such an approach can only be successful if it targets all the major groups of ruminant methanogens. Therefore| a thorough knowledge of the diversity of these microbes in different breeds of cattle and sheep| as well as in response to different diets| is required. A study was undertaken using the molecular techniques denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis| DNA cloning and DNA sequence analysis to define the extent of diversity among methanogens in ruminants| particularly Bos indicus cross cattle| on differing forages in Queensland. It was found that the diversity of methanogens in forage-fed cattle in Queensland was greater than in grain-fed cattle but there was little variability in methanogen community composition between cattle fed different forages. The species that dominate the rumen microbial communities of B. indicus cross cattle are from the genus Methanobrevibacter| although rumen-fluid inoculated digestors fed Leucaena leucocephala leaf were populated with Methanosphaera-like strains| with the Methanobrevibacter-like strains displaced. If ruminant methane emissions are to be reduced| then antimethanogen bioactives that target both broad groups of ruminant methanogens are most likely to be needed| and as a part of an integrated suite of approaches that redirect rumen fermentation towards other more useful end products. 1044,2008,2,4,Do long-term changes in sea surface temperature at the breeding areas affect the breeding dates and reproduction performance of Mediterranean loggerhead turtles? Implications for climate change,Global climate change is likely to have an important influence on the phenology| behaviour and population dynamics of many species. We investigate climatic related changes in the breeding phenology of Mediterranean loggerhead marine turtles Caretta caretta over a 19 year period and the potential relationship between these changes and reproductive success and performance. We found that the studied population has experienced fluctuating sea surface temperatures (SST) with an increasing trend during the last century. With increasing spring SST there is a trend towards earlier nesting. However| there is no significant relationship between SST and nesting season| defined as the duration between the first recorded emergence and the last nest laid. Our analyses indicate that marine turtles display phenological changes| and thus maintain favorable thermal conditions at the nesting sites. Furthermore| increasing spring SST was correlated with decreasing clutch size and increasing hatching success that resulted in an apparent lack of correlation between SST and hatchling production. This apparent independence might be misleading since it only holds for a limited range of SST values. Thus| if we estimate the effect of climate change on loggerhead population growth as neutral| based on the apparent independence between SST and total number of hatchlings| we will be underestimating the population extinction risk. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8778,2008,2,4,Does a warmer climate with frequent mild water shortages protect grassland communities against a prolonged drought?,Global warming accelerates land surface drying| increasing the incidence of extreme climatic events such as severe droughts with detrimental effects on ecosystem functions and structure. We investigated the effects of an imposed severe drought (24 days) on fully established synthesized grassland communities with three species richness (S) levels (one| three or nine species)| grown for 3 years at either ambient air temperatures (unheated) or ambient +3 degrees C (heated). Since water supply during these 3 years was equal in all treatments| heated communities experienced more frequent| short mild droughts| but it was unknown whether this conferred greater or smaller resistance for facing prolonged droughts. During the 24-day drought period| soil matric potential decreased in a similar way over time in both temperature treatments and was lower at increasing S-levels. Although green vegetation cover was significantly reduced by the drought in both temperature treatments| the decrease was higher in heated than unheated communities indicating a lower resistance of heated communities to the drought. After only 13 days of recovery| green vegetation cover of both temperature treatments approached values similar to those observed before the imposed drought| suggesting similar resilience in both treatments. Above-ground biomass was reduced by elevated temperature| consistently in all S-levels| showing that the drought period did not change the biomass production patterns observed in the treatments before the imposed drought. Our results suggest that| regardless of the continuous exposure to elevated temperatures and associated short mild droughts| heated communities had not developed clear mechanisms to better cope with extended summer droughts. 8726,2008,2,4,Does global warming affect physiologically relevant climate factors on the German North Sea coast?,Purpose: Global warming raises the question whether climate changes are detectable on the German North Sea coast that are relevant to human physiology and health. Methods: The analysis is based on publicly accessible meteorological data provided by the Deutsche Wetterdienst (German National Meteorological Service). Daily maximum temperatures were extracted from the time series of the measuring station List on the North Sea island of Sylt (Germany) for the period from 1937 to 2006. For comparative purposes| data measured in Westerland (Sylt) from 1996 to 2006 and at some inland stations were analysed as well. Results: Annual frequencies of days when the daily maximum temperatures reached or exceeded 25 degrees C (T-max >= 25 degrees C) were significantly higher in the second half of the time series than in the first half. The same holds true for the number of days when the maximum temperature reached or exceeded 30 degrees C (T-max >= 30 degrees C). Four fifths of these hot days were observed in the second half of the period (1974 to 2006). The 15 year moving average of the annual frequency of days with T-max >= 25 degrees C exhibited a clear trend towards increasing frequencies. The annual frequencies of T-max >= 25 degrees C-days and hot days T-max >= 30 degrees C in List and in Westerland differed only slightly. Despite these increasing tendencies| hot days are still very rare on the North Sea Island of Sylt when compared to the respective frequencies observed at inland stations. Conclusions: The analysis of the time series of the daily maximum temperature indicates that hot temperatures are becoming more frequent even in maritime climate| while hot days are still very rare compared to inland locations. The results fit the scenario of global warming. With respect to human physiology| the increasing frequency of extreme temperatures is far more important than changes in mean values| since hot environmental conditions mean physical stress. Moreover| warm environments limit the ability to be physically active for instance within the context of exercise therapy. 8896,2008,2,4,Does global warming impact on migration patterns and recruitment of Allis shad (Alosa alosa L.) young of the year in the Loire River| France?,The hydrological and thermal changes in the Loire River were investigated to test the influence of climatic changes on a short freshwater stage anadromous fish species| Allis shad| for the 1995-2004 period. The mean water temperatures during the adult migration and juvenile growth phases showed significant increase| and mean water flow during these two phases decreased significantly. The period below the threshold of 18 degrees C shortened| and the period between 18 degrees C and the maximum lengthened| while the temperature amounts (number of degree-days) received by aquatic organisms between 18 and 24 degrees C showed an increase. The pattern of young-of-the-year downstream migration was modified. The first day when the juvenile catches reached 5% occurred 17 days earlier at the end of the 1995-2004 period than at the beginning. The first day when the juvenile catches reached 50% was related to the 18 degrees C threshold (reproductive threshold) and the temperature amounts accumulated between the 18 and 20 degrees C thresholds. The year-on-year levels of young-of-the-year abundance showed wide variations| which were not explained by environmental parameters| probably because of the long distance between the study site and the spawning grounds. 1182,2008,2,4,Doomed reservoirs in Kansas| USA? Climate change and groundwater mining on the Great Plains lead to unsustainable surface water storage,Streamflow declines on the Great Plains of the US are causing many Federal reservoirs to become profoundly inefficient| and will eventually drive them into unsustainability as negative annual reservoir water budgets become more common. The streamflow declines are historically related to groundwater mining| but since the mid-1980s correlate increasingly with climate. This study highlights that progression toward unsustainability| and shows that future climate change wilt continue streamflow declines at historical rates| with severe consequences for surface water supply. An object lesson is Optima Lake in the Oklahoma Panhandle| where streamflows have declined 99% since the 1960s and the reservoir has never been more than 5% full. Water balances for the four westernmost Federal reservoirs in Kansas (Cedar Bluff| Keith Sebelius| Webster and Kirwin) show similar tendencies. For these four| reservoir inflow has declined by 92%| 73%| 81% and 64% respectively since the 1950s. Since 1990 total evaporated volumes relative to total inflows amounted to 68%| 83%| 24% and 44% respectively. Predictions of streamflow and reservoir performance based on climate change models indicate 70% chance of steady decline after 2007| with a similar to 50% chance of failure (releases by gravity flow impossible) of Cedar Bluff Reservoir between 2007 and 2050. Paradoxically| a 30% chance of storage increase prior 2020 is indicated| followed by steady declines through 2100. Within 95% confidence the models predict > 50% decline in surface water resources between 2007 and 2050. Ultimately| surface storage of water resources may prove unsustainable in this region| forcing conversion to subsurface storage. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9180,2008,4,4,Downscaling of the Climatic Change in the Mei-yu Rainband in East Asia by a Pseudo Climate Simulation Method,This study focuses on the reproducibility of the climatic change in the early summer rainfall in East Asia (Mei-yu rainband) by the Pseudo Climate Simulation (PCS) using a regional climate model. In the PCS| the lateral boundary condition is given by the composite of six hourly reanalysis data and the difference between two decadal climate means. The daily variation on the lateral boundary of the PCS is similar to that of the control hindcast in one decade| but its climate is the same as the other decadal mean. The PCS accurately reproduces the change in the Mei-yu rainband over Southern China between the 1960s and the 1990s. suggesting that the climatic features of the Mei-yu rainband are controlled by the climatic change in a large-scale circulation. The PCS reduces the uncertainty caused by the interannual variability in case of the downscaling of global warming projected by the General Circulation Models (GCMs) even if the number of sample years is the same as that in the conventional dynamical downscaling. The PCS can also exclude model biases in the present climatology reproduced by each GCM. 9130,2008,5,4,Earliest Silurian faunal survival and recovery after the end Ordovician glaciation: evidence from the brachiopods,Earliest Silurian (basal Llandovery) brachiopod faunas are surveyed and listed from around the globe| and divided between Lower Rhuddanian and Upper Rhuddanian occurrences. 60 genera are known from the Lower Rhuddanian within 20 superfamilies and there are 87 genera in 25 superfamilies in the Upper Rhuddanian. The 29 areas surveyed span the globe| both latitudinally and longitudinally. Only six superfamilies are Lazarus taxa which are known both from the Ordovician and Middle Llandovery (Aeronian) and later rocks but have not been recorded from the Rhuddanian. These are surprising results| since many previous Studies have inferred that the Rhuddanian was a time of very sparse faunas. The global warming that followed the latest Ordovician (Hirnantian) ice age did not proceed quickly| with an ice-cap probably present through at least the Llandovery. There is a marked absence of Lower Rhuddanian bioherms even at low palaeolatitudes; however| the ecological recovery rate was far faster than that following the end-Permian mass extinction event. The partitioning of the Rhuddanian shelf faunas into well-defined benthic assemblages progressed slowly over the interval. 8707,2008,2,4,East Asian Precipitation Change in the Global Warming Climate Simulated by a 20-km Mesh AGCM,Using the 20-km mesh super-high-resoultion atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)| precipitation changes in the global warming climate are explored for the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) region. In the warming climate| the EASM rainfall is totally projected to increase| while the rainfall over the northern part of the Korean Peninsula is projected to decrease with a slight southward movement of the monsoonal band. In relation to the Changma| the principal mode of the annual structure of precipitation exhibits a remarkable change between the present-day and future climate| representing to some extent a longer period of rainfall. The westward extension of the enhanced western North Pacific subtropical high and the enhanced atmospheric moisture content due to warming are responsible for the increase in the EASM rainfall. Change in extreme precipitation represented by the extreme climate index (i.e.| P20) shows a clear increase for all of the Meiyu| Changma and Baiu. The convective instability is suggested as one of the primary source affecting the change in precipitation. 8607,2008,3,2,Eco-efficiency approach for global warming in the context of Kyoto Mechanism,This study discusses an approach to measuring and improving the economic and ecological efficiency of Kyoto Mechanism projects. The approach consists of Global Warming Eco-Efficiency (GWEE)| Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) & joint Implementation (JI) Environmental-Efficiency (EE) and CDM & JI Economic-Productivity (EP). The GWEE indicator is based on the ratio of the value added of a system to its global warming influence in order to measure the eco-efficiency of a product in terms of the global warming issue. In addition| CDM & JI EE and CDM & JI EP are proposed to measure the environmental and economic performances of CDM and JI projects| respectively. While EE is defined as the ratio of the Certified Emission Reductions (CER) obtained from a CDM project or Emission Reduction Unit (ERU) from a JI project to total global warming influence relevant to the CDM or JI implemented| EP is defined as the ratio of the total of CER profit (and ERU profit) and the sales revenue to the costs of the CDM (and JI) implemented| Then| the feasibility of these indicators is examined through a case study for the power generations in the field of alternative energy. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8661,2008,2,4,Ecoepidemiology of cutaneous leishmaniasis outbreak| Israel,A total of 161 cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania tropica occurred in the Jerusalem district during 2004-2005; 127 (79%) cases were in a town just outside Jerusalem. Environmental models suggest that in the context of global warming| this outbreak has the potential to extend into Jerusalem. 1302,2008,2,4,Ecological monitoring of coral reefs in IFRECOR survey sites in Martinique between 2001 and 2006,Monitoring of coral reefs in Martinique started in 2001| after the first permanent IFRECOR survey site was created in the island. Four permanent transects of 60 m long are sampled twice a year during the dry and the wet season in the area. Benthic community cover and fish assemblages are assessed using scuba diving techniques. The benthic communities composition remained stable| while already degraded| until end 2005 with average coral cover values of 38.7% over the Southern reef sites and 22.9% on the Atlantic coast. The major bleaching event during the second semester of the year 2005 killed about 14% of the coral colonies in Martinique. Beginning 2006| a disease outbreak also killed another 15% of the corals| with significant differences between species. Globally| although coral reef decline had started before these events| an average of 30% of the coral reefs of Martinique disappeared during the past 2 years. Thereby| there was a decrease in the average coral cover down to 32.9% (South Caribbean) and 14.8% (Atlantic). No effect has been recorded yet on coral reef fish assemblages in terms of total biodiversity| individuals and biomass. Global climate change and anthropogenic pressures are principally involved in the coral reef ecological status in Martinique. Regional MPAs projects are under review and could be an environmental issue for coral reef protection and preservation in the future. 8412,2008,3,3,Economic and Environmental Impact Analyses of Solid Acid Catalyzed Isoparaffin/Olefin Alkylation in Supercritical Carbon Dioxide,HYSYS-based process simulation was accomplished for a recently reported 1-butene + isobutane alkylation concept that employs SiO(2)-supported Nafion catalyst in dense CO(2) media to obtain stable C(8) alkylates production (solid acid/CO(2) process). Semiquantitative economic and environmental impact assessments were conducted for this novel process design along with comparative assessments for a conventional sulfuric acid catalyzed alkylation process (at equivalent production capacities). The simulations are commercial scale and are based on available data and reasonable process assumptions. The total capital investment of the solid acid/CO(2) process is approximately 20-30% higher than that of the sulfuric acid process. Sensitivity analysis shows that| if the olefin space velocity can be increased by a factor of 4 from the base-case value while maintaining the same C(8) alkylate productivity| the total capital investments along with the utility and chemical costs would be nearly the same for both processes. The environmental impact assessment shows that the conventional sulfuric acid process has a 3.9 times higher adverse environmental impact potential than the solid acid/CO(2)| process. For the sulfuric acid process| the major contributors to the environmental impact are acid rain (66%) and inhalation toxicity (32%). The main pollution comes from the SO|) emissions during sulfuric acid regeneration (53%) and acid leakage in the alkylation unit (10%). For the solid acid/CO(2) process| the major contributors to the environmental impact are inhalation toxicity (83%)| global warming| (10%)| and acid rain (6%). For the solid acid/CO(2) process| the main pollution sources are fugitive emissions. This evaluation illustrates the advantages and shortcomings of the novel process and provides rational research guidance. For example| the analyses established performance targets| such as catalyst activity and operating pressure| for the solid acid/CO(2) process to be commercially viable. 1293,2008,2,4,Ectomycorrhizal fungi of whitebark pine (a tree in peril) revealed by sporocarps and molecular analysis of mycorrhizae from treeline forests in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem,Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) is unique as the only stone pine in North America. This species has declined 40%-90% throughout its range owing to blister rust infection| mountain pine beetle| fire suppression| and global climate change. However| intact mature and old growth forests still exist in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) at high timberline elevations. This study addresses the urgent need to discover the ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi critical to this tree species before forests are further reduced. A study of mature whitebark pine forests across five mountain ranges in the Northern GYE confirmed 32 ECM species of fungi with the pine by sporocarp occurrence in pure stands or by identification of mycorrhizae with ITS-matching. Boletales and Cortinariales (Cortinarius) comprise 50% of the species diversity discovered. In Boletales| Suillus subalpinus M.M. Moser (with stone pines)| Suillus sibericus Singer (stone pines)| Rhizopogon evadens A.H. Sm. (five-needle pines)| Rhizopogon spp. (pines) and a semi-secotioid Chroogomphus sp. (pines) are restricted to the hosts listed and are not likely to occur with other high elevation conifers in the GYE. The ascomycete generalist| Cenococcum geophilum Fr.| was the most frequent (64%) and abundant (51%) ECM fungus on seedling roots| as previously reported for high elevation spruce-fir and lower elevation lodgepole pine forests in the GYE. The relative importance of the basidiomycete specialists and the ascomycete generalist to whitebark pine (and for seedling establishment) is not known| however this study is the first step in delineating the ECM fungi associated with this pine in peril. 8904,2008,3,3,Effect of CaO on AZ31 Mg strip castings,Strip casting process combines casting and hot rolling into a single step| with advantages of low equipment cost| low running cost| energy saving and space saving. Protective gases| such as SF6 and Novec(TM)612| should be used in order to prevent the ignition of magnesium alloys during strip casting. However| protective gases have disadvantages such as global warming| high production cost and corrosion of steel based equipments. According to the recent study| the addition of CaO is the effective way to improve the ignition and oxidation resistance of magnesium alloy. CaO added AZ31 magnesium alloy strip casting could be manufactured with reduced protective gas during melting and without protective gas during strip casting. The minimum SF6 gas amount could be reduced under 50 ppm for 0.3 mass%CaO added AZ31 magnesium alloy both under sealed and unsealed conditions. The strips of CaO added AZ31 magnesium alloys were almost uniform in terms of microstructure and hardness. 9095,2008,3,3,Effect of electrode surface roughness and dielectric coating on breakdown characteristics of high pressure CO2 and N-2 in a quasi-uniform electric field,SF6 gas has excellent dielectric strength and interrupting capability and is used in various applications such as gas insulated switchgear (GIS) in substations. However| since SF6 has a high global warming potential (GWP)| it is imperative to reduce its use and develop recovery technology for its reuse. This paper examined the potential of alternative insulating gases for GIS| determining experimentally the ac and lightning impulse breakdown characteristics Of CO2 and N-2 gases| which have little environmental impact| in a quasi-uniform electric field. The effect of electrode surface roughness is greater in N-2 than in CO2. The impulse ratio in a quasi-uniform electric field was smaller in N-2 than in CO2 at low pressure| but this reversed when the pressure reached 1.2 MPa. The dielectric strength of an electrode with a dielectric coating was approximately equal to that of a specular-finish bare electrode in either CO2 or N-2 when an ac voltage was applied. When lightning impulse voltage was applied| a significant improvement of dielectric strength was observed if a dielectric coating was applied to the electrode considered to. be the initial electron source. 8985,2008,4,3,Effect of hydrological conditions on nitrous oxide| methane| and carbon dioxide dynamics in a bottomland hardwood forest and its implication for soil carbon sequestration,This study was conducted at three locations in a bottomland hardwood forest with a distinct elevation and hydrological gradient: ridge (high| dry)| transition| and swamp (low| wet). At each location| concentrations of soil greenhouse gases (N2O| CH4| and CO2)| their fluxes to the atmosphere| and soil redox potential (Eh) were measured bimonthly| while the water table was monitored every day. Results show that soil Eh was significantly (P < 0.001) correlated with water table: a negative correlation at the ridge and transition locations| but a positive correlation at the permanently flooded swamp location. Both soil gas profile analysis and surface gas flux measurements indicated that the ridge and transition locations could be a sink of atmospheric CH4| especially in warm seasons| but generally functioned as a minor source of CH4 in cool seasons. The swamp location was a major source of CH4| and the emission rate was higher in the warm seasons (mean 28 and median 23 mg m(-2) h(-1)) than in the cool seasons (both mean and median 13 mg m(-2) h(-1)). Average CO2 emission rate was 251| 380 and 52 mg m(-2) h(-1) for the ridge| transition and swamp location| respectively. At each location| higher CO2 emission rates were also found in the warm seasons. The lowest CO2 emission rate was found at the swamp location| where soil C content was the highest| due to less microbial biomass| less CO2 production in such an anaerobic environment| and greater difficulty of CO2 diffusion to the atmosphere. Cumulative global warming potential emission from these three greenhouse gases was in an order of swamp > transition > ridge location. The ratio CO2/CH4 production in soil is a critical factor for evaluating the overall benefit of soil C sequestration| which can be greatly offset by CH4 production and emission. 8877,2008,2,4,Effect of ice sheet growth and melting on the slip evolution of thrust faults,Field investigations suggest that postglacial unloading and rebound led to the formation or re-activation of reverse faults even in continental shields like Scandinavia. Here we use finite-element models including a thrust fault embedded in a rheologically layered lithosphere to investigate its slip evolution during glacial loading and subsequent postglacial unloading. The model results show that the rate of thrusting decreases during the presence of an ice sheet and strongly increases during deglaciation. The magnitude of the slip acceleration is primarily controlled by the thickness of the ice sheet| the viscosity of the lithospheric layers and the long-term shortening rate. In contrast| the width of the ice sheet| the rate of deglaciation or the fault dip have an only minor influence on the slip evolution. In all experiments| the slip rate variations are caused by changes in the differential stress. The modelled deglaciation-induced slip acceleration agrees well with the occurrence of large earthquakes soon after the melting of the Fermoscandian ice sheet| which led to the formation of spectacular fault scarps in particular in the Lapland Fault Province. Furthermore| our model results support the idea that the low level of seismicity in currently glaciated regions like Greenland and Antarctica is caused by the presence of the ice sheets. Based on our models we expect that the decay of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets in the course of global warming will ultimately lead to an increase in earthquake frequency in these regions. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1289,2008,2,4,Effect of increasing temperature on yield of some winter crops in northwest India,The effect of increase in temperature on grain yield of some winter crops (wheat| mustard| barley and chickpea) in northwest India was evaluated on the basis of historic records and through a dynamic crop growth model| WTGROWS. The optimal date of sowing was also evaluated in view of the increase in seasonal temperature. The yield of these crops| especially wheat| already showing signs of stagnation in most places of northwest India| is most likely to be affected by temperature changes. The solar radiation-temperature interactions study in wheat reveals some interesting trends and is seen to vary from one location to another. Keeping in view the trends in global climate change| a shift in sowing time| as an adaptation strategy is recommended. The simple and empirical relations between yield and seasonal temperature change can be well used for a crude estimate of yield dependence of temperature rise of these winter crops. 1108,2008,3,4,Effect of kaolin clay addition on mechanical properties of foundry sand moulds bonded with grades 1 and 2 Nigerian acacia species,The research studied effects of addition of kaolin clay on mechanical properties of sand moulds bonded with grades 1 and 2 Nigerian acacia species exudates. The properties included green and dry compressive strength; permeability and hardness; shatter index and the moisture content. Green and dry sand mould specimens bonded with composite mixtures of kaolin clay and each of grades 1 and 2 acacia exudates were subjected to the property tests using the universal strength and shatter index machines; permeability meter; hardness tester and moisture teller in foundry laboratory of Ajaokuta Steel Company Limited. The result when compared to previous works showed that addition of kaolin clay to acacia exudates improved green and dry strength of sand moulds over those bonded with plain grades 1 and 2 Nigerian acacia by about 25 and 40%; and moulds bonded with plain kaolin clay by about 54 and 11% respectively. It increased green permeability by about 15% and hardness by about 10%. The significance of the research lies in the fact that foundries would be availed with an alternative source of good sand binder from a blend of vegetable and mineral material| reducing total dependence on earth mineral that causes environmental degradation from mining. It would further promote reforestation through acacia tree plantations which would reduce ozone layer depletion and global warming for beneficial global climate change. 9190,2008,2,3,EFFECT OF LEAF- AND ROOT-LITTER MANIPULATION FOR CARBON-DIOXIDE EFFLUX IN FOREST SOIL,We established it long-term field study in a sessile oak-turkey oak forest in Central Europe Hungary (Sikfokut Experimental Forest (SIK) to address how detrital quality and quantity control soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation and soil respiration. Due to the climate change the species composition of forest has been changing (Kotroczo et al.| 2007)| and the total leaf litter production has been slightly decreasing. According to our long-term litter manipulation field experiment| after a 5 year treating period| at the No Liner| No Root and No Input treatments the soil organic carbon| the soil pH| the soil enzyme activity (Fekete et al.| 2007: Toth et al.| 2007; Kotroczo et al.| 2006) and soil respiration decreased. If the average soil temperature raise by 2 degrees C at the dry SIK site| the soil respiration would increase by 22.1%. The increasing soil respiration could speed up the global warming by positive feedback mechanism.
8647,2008,3,2,Effect of pyrolysis temperature and operating temperature on the performance of nanoporous carbon membranes,Technology designed to capture and store carbon dioxide (CO(2)) Will play a significant role in the near-term reduction of CO(2) emissions and is considered necessary to slow global warming. Nanoporous carbon (NPC) membranes show promise as a new generation of gas separation membranes suitable for CO(2) capture. We have made supported NPC membranes from polyfurfuryl alcohol (PFA) at various pyrolysis temperatures. Positron annihilation lifetime spectrometry (PALS) and wide angle X-ray diffraction (WAXD) results indicate that the pore size decreases whilst the porosity increases with increasing pyrolysis temperature. The membrane performance results support these findings with a significant increase in permeance being seen with increasing pyrolysis temperature| which relates to the increase in porosity. Mixed gas performance measurements also show an increase in CH(4) permeance as the operating temperature is increased from 35 to 200 degrees C| which can be related to an increase in the rate of diffusion. However| the selectivity decreases with increasing operating temperature due to the smaller changes in the CO(2) permeance. These smaller changes in CO(2) permeance can be related to the stronger adsorption of this gas on the carbon surface at lower operating temperatures. Interestingly| regardless of the original pyrolysis temperature| the selectivity at higher operating temperatures is similar| whereas the permeance remains related to this pyrolysis temperature. (c) 2008 Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1111,2008,2,4,Effect of seawater temperature on the productivity of Laminaria japonica in the Uwa Sea| southern Japan,Recent studies on global climate change report that increase in seawater temperature leads to coastal ecosystem change| including coral bleaching in the tropic. In order to assess the effect of increased seawater temperature on a temperate coastal ecosystem| we studied the inter-annual variation in productivity of Laminaria japonica using long-term oceanographic observations for the Uwa Sea| southern Japan. The annual productivity estimates for L. japonica were 2.7 +/- 2.5 (mean +/- SD) kg wet wt. m(-1) (length of rope) (2003/2004)| 1.0 +/- 0.6 kg wet wt. m(-1) (2004/2005) and 12.1 +/- 12.5 kg wet wt. m(-1) (2005/2006). Our previous study using the same methodology at the same locality reported that the productivity was estimated for the 2001/2002 (33.3 +/- 15.2 kg wet wt. m(-1)) and 2002/2003 (34.0 +/- 8.7 kg wet wt. m(-1)) seasons. Productivity in 2003/2004 and 2004/2005 was significantly lower than in years 2001/2002| 2002/2003 and 2005/2006. A comparison of oceanographic conditions among the 5 years revealed the presence of threshold seawater temperature effects. When the average seawater temperature during the first 45 days of each experiment exceeded 15.5A degrees C| productivity was reduced to about 10 % of that in cooler years. Moreover the analysis of growth and erosion rates indicates that when the seawater temperature was over 17.5A degrees C| erosion rate exceeded growth rate. Thus| an increase of seawater temperature of just 1A degrees C during winter drastically reduces the productivity of L. japonica in the Uwa Sea. 1331,2008,3,3,Effect of syngas composition and CO2-diluted oxygen on performance of a premixed swirl-stabilized combustor,Future energy systems based on gasification of coal or biomass for co-production of electrical power and fuels may require gas turbine operation on unusual gaseous fuel mixtures. In addition| global climate change concerns may dictate the generation of a CO2 product stream for end-use or sequestration| with potential impacts on the oxidizer used in the gas turbine. In this study the operation at atmospheric pressure of a small| optically accessible swirl-stabilized premixed combustor| burning fuels ranging from pure methane to conventional and H-2-rich and H-2-lean syngas mixtures is investigated. Both air and CO2-diluted oxygen are used as oxidizers. CO and NOx emissions for these flames have been determined from the lean blowout limit to slightly rich conditions (phi similar to 1.03). In practice| CO2-diluted oxygen systems will likely be operated close to stoichiometric conditions to minimize oxygen consumption while achieving acceptable NOx performance. The presence of hydrogen in the syngas fuel mixtures results in more compact| higher temperature flames| resulting in increased flame stability and higher NOx emissions. Consistent with previous experience| the stoichiometry of lean blowout decreases with increasing H-2 content in the syngas. Similarly| the lean stoichiometry at which CO emissions become significant decreases with increasing H-2 content. For the mixtures investigated| CO emissions near the stoichiometric point do not become significant until phi > 0.95. At this stoichiometric limit| CO emissions rise more rapidly for combustion in O-2-CO2 mixtures than for combustion in air. 1228,2008,3,3,Effects of a thinning treatment on carbon stocks in a northern Arizona ponderosa pine forest,Vast areas of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) forest in the western United States have become unnaturally dense because of relatively recent land management practices that include fire suppression and livestock grazing. In many areas| thinning treatments can re-establish the natural ecological processes and help restore ecosystem structure and function. Precipitous global climate change has focused attention on the carbon storage in forests. An unintended consequence of fire suppression has been the increased storage of carbon in ponderosa stands. Thinning treatments reduce standing carbon stocks while releasing carbon through the combustion of fuel in logging machinery| burning slash| and the decay of logging slash and wood products. These reductions and releases of stored carbon must be compared to the risk of catastrophic fire burning through the stand and releasing large quantities of carbon to the atmosphere to more fully understand the costs and benefits - in carbon terms - of forest restoration strategies. This study examines the effect of a restoration thinning treatment on the carbon stock of a ponderosa pine forest. The total pre-treatment above-ground carbon stock was 48|880 kg C ha(-1) and the post-treatment stand had 36|420 kg C ha(-1). The carbon stock in trees across the stand ranged from 28|560 to 67|560 kg C ha-1 pre-treatment and from 11|970 to 55|510 kg C ha-1 post-treatment. 8240 kg C ha(-1) was removed from the site and sold to the wholesale firewood market (plot values ranged from 4890 to 12|3 10 kg C ha(-1))| 91 kg C hat was released from the combustion of fuel in harvesting operations and trucking| and the processing of the firewood required carbon released 33 kg C ha(-1). The burning of slash piled on site released 4140 kg C ha(-1) (plot values ranged from 2920 to 6900 kg C ha(-1)). We estimated that in a stand-replacing fire| the treated stand would release 2410 kg C ha(-1) less to the atmosphere than the untreated stand. However| the thinning treatment resulted in stand structural changes that make the stand less likely to support a crown fire and therefore more likely to avoid the carbon releases associated with crown fires| even under extreme fire conditions. On balance| the thinning treatment released 3114 kg C ha(-1). If the wood removed from the site had been used in longer-lasting products| the thinning could have resulted in net carbon storage on the order of 3351 kg C ha(-1). (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8520,2008,2,4,Effects of an experimental drought and recovery on soil emissions of carbon dioxide| methane| nitrous oxide| and nitric oxide in a moist tropical forest,Changes in precipitation in the Amazon Basin resulting from regional deforestation| global warming| and El Nino events may affect emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2)| methane (CH4)| nitrous oxide (N2O)| and nitric oxide (NO) from soils. Changes in soil emissions of radiatively important gases could have feedback implications for regional and global climate. Here| we report the final results of a 5-year| large-scale (1 ha) throughfall exclusion experiment| followed by 1 year of recovery with natural throughfall| conducted in a mature evergreen forest near Santarem| Brazil. The exclusion manipulation lowered annual N2O emissions in four out of five treatment years (a natural drought year being the exception)| and then recovered during the first year after the drought treatment stopped. Similarly| consumption of atmospheric CH4 increased under drought treatment| except during a natural drought year| and it also recovered to pretreatment values during the first year that natural throughfall was permitted back on the plot. No treatment effect was detected for NO emissions during the first 3 treatment years| but NO emissions increased in the fourth year under the extremely dry conditions of the exclusion plot during a natural drought. Surprisingly| there was no treatment effect on soil CO2 efflux in any year. The drought treatment provoked significant tree mortality and reduced the allocation of C to stems| but allocation of C to foliage and roots were less affected. Taken together| these results suggest that the dominant effect of throughfall exclusion on soil processes during this 6-year period was on soil aeration conditions that transiently affected CH4| N2O| and NO production and consumption. 9059,2008,2,4,Effects of climate change on phenology| frost damage| and floral abundance of montane wildflowers,The timing of life history traits is central to lifetime fitness and nowhere is this more evident or well studied as in the phenology of flowering in governing plant reproductive success. Recent changes in the timing of environmental events attributable to climate change| such as the date of snowmelt at high altitudes| which initiates the growing season| have had important repercussions for some common perennial herbaceous wildflower species. The phenology of flowering at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (Colorado| USA) is strongly influenced by date of snowmelt| which makes this site ideal for examining phenological responses to climate change. Flower buds of Delphinium barbeyi| Erigeron speciosus| and Helianthella quinquenervis are sensitive to frost| and the earlier beginning of the growing season in recent years has exposed them to more frequent mid-June frost kills. From 1992 to 1998| on average 36.1% of Helianthella buds were frosted| but for 1999-2006 the mean is 73.9%; in only one year since 1998 have plants escaped all frost damage. For all three of these perennial species| there is a significant relationship between the date of snowmelt and the abundance of flowering that summer. Greater snowpack results in later snowmelt| later beginning of the growing season| and less frost mortality of buds. Microhabitat differences in snow accumulation| snowmelt patterns| and cold air drainage during frost events can be significant; an elevation difference of only 12 m between two plots resulted in a temperature difference of almost 2 degrees C in 2006 and a difference of 37% in frost damage to buds. The loss of flowers and therefore seeds can reduce recruitment in these plant populations| and affect pollinators| herbivores| and seed predators that previously relied on them. Other plant species in this environment are similarly susceptible to frost damage so the negative effects for recruitment and for consumers dependent on flowers and seeds could be widespread. These findings point out the paradox of increased frost damage in the face of global warming| provide important insights into the adaptive significance of phenology| and have general implications for flowering plants throughout the region and anywhere climate change is having similar impacts. 1311,2008,2,4,Effects of climate-induced coral bleaching on coral-reef fishes - Ecological and economic consequences,Global climate change is having devastating effects on habitat structure in coral-reef ecosystems owing to extreme environmental sensitivities and consequent bleaching of reef-building scleractinian corals. Coral bleaching frequently causes immediate loss of live coral and may lead to longer-term declines in topographic complexity. This review identifies coral cover and topographic complexity as critical and distinct components of coral-reef habitats that shape communities of coral-reef fishes. Coral loss has the greatest and most immediate effect on fishes that depend on live corals for food or shelter| and many such fishes may face considerable risk of extinction with increasing frequency and severity of bleaching. Coral loss may also have longer-term consequences for fishes that require live corals at settlement| which are compounded by devastating effects of declining topographic complexity. Topographic complexity moderates major biotic factors| such as predation and competition| contributing to the high diversity of fishes on coral reefs. Many coral-reef fishes that do not depend on live coral are nonetheless dependent on the topographic complexity provided by healthy coral growth. Ecological and economic consequences of declining topographic complexity are likely to be substantial compared with selective effects of coral loss but both coral cover and topographic complexity must be recognised as a critical component of habitat structure and managed accordingly. Urgent action on the fundamental causes of climate change and appropriate management of critical elements of habitat structure (coral cover and topographic complexity) are key to ensuring long-term persistence of coral-reef fishes. 8797,2008,2,4,Effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on silica deposition in rice (Oryza sativa L.) panicle,The effects of elevated carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) on silica deposition on husk epidermis of rice (Oryza saliva L. cv Akitakomachi) during the flowering stage were investigated in this study. The study was motivated by the concept that the rice yield maybe affected by global warming as a result of elevated [CO2] environment since sterility of rice is related to the panicle silica content that influences transpiration| and elevated [CO2] could affect plant transpiration. Silica deposition analysis was focused on the flowering stage of the rice crop grown hydroponically under two [CO2] conditions: 350 mu mol mol(-1) (ambient) and 700 mu mol mol(-1) (elevated). Silica deposition on the husk epidermis from three parts of the particle at four flowering stages were examined using a: scanning electron microscope (SEM) combined with an energy dispersive X-ray microanalyzer (EDX). The results demonstrated that elevated [CO2] significantly suppressed silica deposition on the husk epidermis at the lower part of the panicle| and at the early flowering stage when 1/3 of the panicle emerged from the leaf sheath. In the transverse section analysis of the husk| silica deposition on the husk epidermis tinder elevated [CO2] was less than that under ambient [CO2] at the late flowering stage. The less silica deposition observed on the husks at the late flowering stage under elevated [CO2] might be related to the suppressed transpiration from the panicle by elevated [CO2] found in a previous study. 1270,2008,2,3,Effects of elevated CO(2) on the tolerance of photosynthesis to acute heat stress in C(3)| C(4)| and CAM species,Determining the effect of elevated CO(2) on the tolerance of photosynthesis to acute heat stress (AHS) is necessary for predicting plant responses to global warming because photosynthesis is heat sensitive and AHS and atmospheric CO(2) Will increase in the future. Few studies have examined this effect| and past results were variable| which may be related to methodological variation among studies. In this study| we grew 11 species that included cool and warm season and C(3)| C(4)| and CAM species at current or elevated (370 or 700 ppm) CO(2) and at species-specific optimal growth temperatures and at 30 degrees C (if optimal not equal 30 degrees C). We then assessed thermotolerance of net photosynthesis (P(n))| stomatal conductance (g(st))| leaf internal [CO(2)]| and photosystem II (PSII) and post-PSII electron transport during AHS. Thermotolerance of P(n) in elevated (vs. ambient) CO(2) increased in C(3)| but decreased in C(4) (especially) and CAM (high growth temperature only)| species. In contrast| elevated CO(2) decreased electron transport in 10 of 11 species. High CO(2) decreased g(st) in five of nine species| but stomatal limitations to P(n) increased during AHS in only two cool-season C(3) species. Thus| benefits of elevated CO(2) to photosynthesis at normal temperatures may be partly offset by negative effects during AHS| especially for C(4) species| so effects of elevated CO(2) on acute heat tolerance may contribute to future changes in plant productivity| distribution| and diversity. 1134,2008,2,4,Effects of elevated CO2 and O-3 on leaf damage and insect abundance in a soybean agroecosystem,By altering myriad aspects of leaf chemistry| increasing concentrations of CO2 and O-3 in the atmosphere derived from human activities may fundamentally alter the relationships between insect herbivores and plants. Because exposure to elevated CO2 can alter the nutritional value of leaves| some herbivores may increase consumption rates to compensate. The effects of O-3 on leaf nutritional quality are less clear; however| increased senescence may also reduce leaf quality for insect herbivores. Additionally| changes in secondary chemistry and the microclimate of leaves may render plants more susceptible to herbivory in elevated CO2 and O-3. Damage to soybean (Glycine max L.) leaves and the size and composition of the insect community in the plant canopy were examined in large intact plots exposed to elevated CO2 (similar to 550 mu mol mol(-1)) and elevated O-3 (1.2* ambient) in a fully factorial design with a Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment system (SoyFACE). Leaf area removed by folivorous insects was estimated by digital photography and insect surveys were conducted during two consecutive growing seasons| 2003 and 2004. Elevated CO2 alone and in combination with O-3 increased the number of insects and the amount of leaf area removed by insect herbivores across feeding guilds. Exposure to elevated CO2 significantly increased the number of western corn rootworm (Diabrotica virgifera) adults (foliage chewer) and soybean aphids (Aphis glycines; phloem feeder). No consistent effect of elevated O-3 on herbivory or insect population size was detected. Increased loss of leaf area to herbivores was associated with increased carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and leaf surface temperature. Soybean aphids are invasive pests in North America and new to this ecosystem. Higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere may increase herbivory in the soybean agroecosystem| particularly by recently introduced insect herbivores. 1334,2008,2,4,EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON TERRESTRIAL SMALL MAMMAL COMMUNITIES IN ITALY,In the framework of climate change| it has been predicted that the Mediterranean Basin will experience the greatest loss of biodiversity| because it will be heavily affected by several drivers of change. In particular| Italy is an important geographical area because it represents a key hotspot of biodiversity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of global climate chan-e on terrestrial small mammals (Rodents and Soricomorphs) in Italy. Barn owl (7:1|to alba) pellet analysis was applied to study the temporal variations of microteriocoenoses structure. We revisited 21 roosting| sites which had been previously studied by other authors and we carried out a similar study in order to analyse possible changes in small mammal communities. Analyses covered a period of about 30 years and the gap between the first and second sampling ranges from I I to 33 years. Collecting localities were grouped according to the Bioclimatic Map of Italy. Several ecological indexes were applied and their changes through time were analysed for each Bioclimatic Region. Results show a significant increase in thermoxerophilic species in the last thirty years| particularly in the Mediterranean Region. This observed rise is likely due to global and local warming. In fact| higher temperatures| lower precipitation and increasing xerothermic conditions could have facilitated the spread of thermoxerophilic species. The persistence of such a trend could lead to a series of serious ecological consequences in the future| including a possible reduction in biodiversity. 9206,2008,2,4,Effects of increased salinity on tadpoles of two anurans from a Caribbean coastal wetland in relation to their natural abundance,Many amphibians depend on wetland ecosystems for reproduction and survival| and coastal wetlands are not the exception. Recent advances on climate change research predict a reduction in land cover of coastal wetlands due to sea-level rise in response to global warming. Although this scenario will contribute to further amphibian population declines worldwide the impacts of sea-level rise and its related salt water intrusion on anuran assemblages in coastal wetlands remain largely unknown. I documented patterns of abundance of the native Caribbean white-lipped frog (Leptodactylus albilabris) and the introduced marine toad (Bufo marinus) along an inland-to-coastal salinity gradient in Puerto Rico. In addition| I investigated the effects of increasing salinity on larval growth and survival to metamorphosis in L. albilabris and B. marinus in laboratory experiments. In the field| relative abundance of adults of L. albilabris decreased with increasing salinity| while B. marinus the opposite pattern. Laboratory experiments with L. albilabris and B. marinus revealed that percentage of larvae surviving to metamorphosis in both species was greatly reduced in 22-25% seawater (8 ppt)| which is within salinity levels found in their natural distribution. In this salinity level| the native L. albilabris showed similar to 100% metamorphosis failure while the introduced B. marinus showed similar to 60% metamorphosis failure. The reduction in metamorphosis was due to high mortality in L albilabris and was accompanied with morphological abnormalities in B. marinus. Tadpoles of only L. albilabris reared for four weeks showed significant weight loss at 8 ppt| but showed no difference in length. These results suggest that anuran tadpoles may be living near their physiological limit for salinity in the studied wetland. Conservation implications are profound| however| as salt water intrusion and urban encroaching inland may result in anuran population replacement| from native species to introduced species in this wetland. 1074,2008,2,4,Effects of N on Plant Response to Heat-wave: A Field Study with Prairie Vegetation,More intense| more frequent| and longer heat-waves are expected in the future due to global warming| which could have dramatic ecological impacts. Increasing nitrogen (N) availability and its dynamics will likely impact plant responses to heat stress and carbon (C) sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems. This field study examined the effects of N availability on plant response to heat-stress (HS) treatment in naturally-occurring vegetation. HS (5 d at ambient or 40.5 degrees C) and N treatments (+/- N) were applied to 16 1 m(2) plots in restored prairie vegetation dominated by Andropogon gerardii (warm-season C(4) grass) and Solidago canadensis (warm-season C(3) forb). Before| during| and after HS| air| canopy| and soil temperature were monitored; net CO(2) assimilation (P(n))| quantum yield of photosystem II (Phi(PSII))| stomatal conductance (g(s))| and leaf water potential (Psi(w)) of the dominant species and soil respiration (R(soil)) of each plot were measured daily during HS. One week after HS| plots were harvested| and C% and N% were determined for rhizosphere and bulk soil| and above-ground tissue (green/senescent leaf| stem| and flower). Photosynthetic N-use efficiency (PNUE) and N resorption rate (NRR) were calculated. HS decreased P(n)| g(s)| Psi(w)| and PNUE for both species| and +N treatment generally increased these variables (+/- HS)| but often slowed their post-HS recovery. Aboveground biomass tended to decrease with HS in both species (and for green leaf mass in S. canadensis)| but decrease with +N for A. gerardii and increase with +N for S. canadensis. For A. gerardii| HS tended to decrease N% in green tissues with +N| whereas in S. canadensis| HS increased N% in green leaves. Added N decreased NRR for A. gerardii and HS increased NRR for S. canadensis. These results suggest that heat waves| though transient| could have significant effects on plants| communities| and ecosystem N cycling| and N can influence the effect of heat waves. 9118,2008,2,4,Effects of permafrost thawing on vegetation and soil carbon pool losses on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau| China,Bearing a total organic carbon (TOC) content of 9.3-10.7 kg c/m(2)| alpine grassland soils of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau's permafrost region bear a greater organic carbon pool than do grassland soils in other regions of China or than tropical savannah soils. The easily released light fraction organic carbon (LFOC) accounts for 34-54% of the TOC and is particularly enriched in the topsoil (0-0.10 in). The LFOC in the organic carbon pool of alpine cold meadow and alpine cold steppe soils decreased at exponential and quadratic rates| respectively| as the vegetative cover decreased. When the vegetative cover of alpine cold meadows decreased from > 80 dm(2)/m(2) to 60 dm(2)/m(2)| the topsoil TOC and LFOC dropped by 20.4% and 38.4%| respectively. Similarly| when the vegetative cover of alpine cold meadow decreased from 50 dm(2)/m(2) to 30 dm(2)/m(2) and < 15 dm(2)/m(2)| the topsoil LFOC content dropped by 60% and 86.7%| respectively. Under climatic warming| the degradation of permafrost and vegetation have resulted in serious soil organic carbon (SOC) loss from the carbon pool. Land cover changes that occurred between 1986 and 2000 are estimated to have resulted in a 1.8 Gg C (120 Mg C/yr) loss in SOC| and a concomitant 65% decrease in the LFOC| in the 0-0.30 in soil layer in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau's permafrost regions. Since the region's ecosystems are quite sensitive to global climate changes| if global warming persists| alpine cold grassland ecosystems are expected to further degrade. Hence| the influence of global climatic change on soil carbon emissions from alpine grasslands should receive more attention. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8395,2008,3,3,Effects of pH conditions on the biological conversion of carbon dioxide to methane in a hollow-fiber membrane biofilm reactor (Hf-MBfR),Carbon dioxide is one of the global warming gases. Utilization of a sustainable energy is one of the effective technologies for the mitigation Of CO(2) accumulation in the atmosphere. If renewable energy can be used for methane synthesis| H(2) is converted to methane by reducing CO(2). We investigated the conversion of CO(2) to CH(4) using a novel hollow-fiber membrane biofilm reactor. We have converted CO(2) to CH(4) with autotrophic methanogens Using CO(2) and H(2). All the gases were diffused into water through the membrane without bubbles. We have Successfully operated the Hf-MBfR for stable methane production from CO(2) and H2 under Continuous operations for 60-70 days at acidic and neutral pH. The methane ratio of the gas produced depended on the pH condition and reached about 60% at neutral pH and 80-90%| at acidic pH. The Produced methane contents were 751 mL day(-1) on average from 20 to 58 days at neutral pH and 135 mL day(-1) on average from 36 to 43 days| 247 mL day(-1) on average from 44 to 70 days at acidic pH. At neutral pH| during the operating periods| acetic acid was continuously produced to 4000-7000 mg/L so that produced methane was considered to have been produced by hydrogenotrophic methanogens and acetoclastic methanogens. At acidic pH| during the initial operating periods| pH was maintained to 5.9-6.6 so that acetic acid was produced by acetogens. After adjusting to less than pH 5.5| however| it was decreased. At the same time| the methane contents produced were considered to have increased by acetoclastic methanogens. 8593,2008,3,2,Effects of reduced tillage on net greenhouse gas fluxes from loamy sand soil under winter crops in Denmark,The environmental consequences of changing from conventional to reduced soil tillage in winter crops are yet poorly understood under North European conditions. Soil tillage intensity may affect both crop growth and soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) turnover and balances| including emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as CO(2) and N(2)O. In this study we compared the effects of conventional tillage (CT) using mouldboard ploughing to 20 cm depth| reduced tillage (RT) using rotary harrowing to 8-10 cm depth and direct drilling (DD) with disk coulters on fluxes of CO(2) and N(2)O from loamy sand soil under winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L) followed by winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). The measurements were conducted by use of chambers over a period from August 2003 to July 2005 in a soil tillage experiment established in Denmark in 2002. To integrate information on the C and GHG budgets for the experiment| the FASSET model was used with no recalibration in a two-step modelling procedure. First| we fitted the soil organic matter (SOM) model of FASSET to give the observed ratio of soil CO(2) respiration from the CT and DD treatments by scaling all decomposition and maintenance parameters for the DD treatment with the same value (delta)| called the "tillage factor". Second| the complete FASSET model was run with default parameter value for ploughing depth in CT (delta = 1.00) and the estimated value for DD (delta = 0.57)| in order to quantify the cumulated CO(2) and N(2)O emissions. Both measurements and model simulations showed that the combined global warming potential (GWP) from CO(2) and N(2)O emissions was lower from reduced tillage treatments (RT and DD) than from conventional tillage. Thus| compared with CT| modelled reduced soil tillage treatments decreased GHG emissions by 0.56 (RT) and 1.84 (DD) Mg CO(2-) eq. ha(-1) year(-1). Similar differences between treatments were obtained for simulations over 30 years of observed weather for the specific site. In both cases| negative GWPs for the studied site were obtained. A sensitivity analysis showed that the simulated GHG emissions were primarily influenced by changes in SOM model parameters| whereas observed changes in soil water retention affected only N(2)O emissions| and soil temperature had only minor effects. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9162,2008,3,2,Effects of small amounts of fugitive methane in the air on diesel engine performance and its combustion characteristics,Methane| which is the main component of natural and biogases| is known to be a very strong greenhouse gas with long lasting effect in the atmosphere that contributes actively to global warming. Releases of the gas commonly described as Fugitive Gas Emissions are an important source of methane emissions. A possible approach to reduce the harmful effects of such methane emissions is to introduce the fugitive methane into a device that can convert it through combustion to less environmentally harmful products. It has been shown that the bulk of such methane can be converted into much weaker green house gases in an IDI diesel engine. However| such applications can bring about changes to engine combustion processes and the resulting performance. The present contribution reports the results of an investigation of the effect on combustion characteristics| emissions and performance of introducing very small concentrations of methane into the intake of an operating diesel engine. It is shown that for wide ranges of gas admission concentrations in the air| unlike with other conventional combustion devices such as burners and furnaces| much of the methane added was indeed oxidized in the IDI diesel engine and increased the power output and thus saving some diesel fuel. Such methane admissions tended to increase carbon monoxide emissions| indicating that part of the methane may not have been fully oxidized. NOx emission increased slightly| but when compared to the diesel operation for the same fuel energy input| it represented a reduction. Consuming a small amount of fugitive methane in the engine could bring about reductions to the global warming effect well in excess of that due to the entire engine exhaust gases resulting from diesel fuel combustion. The introduction of low concentrations of methane into the engine air hardly affected the ignition delay and the combustion duration. However| the total gross heat released and its rate showed correspondingly an increase consistent with a positive contribution of methane to engine power. 9228,2008,2,3,Effects of some parameters on numerical simulation of coastal bed morphology,Purpose - The aim is to investigate in detail the sensitivity of sediment transport and bed morphology with respect to some parameters including bed slope| non-hydrostatic pressure term| sand grain size| temperature| salinity and lower boundary conditions for suspended sand concentration on a regional scale through numerical simulations based on a mathematical model. Design/methodology/approach - The numerical model consists of a 3D hydrodynamic code amended by a sediment transport module. At the same time| the influence of wave action has been taken into account. The model is applied to the Sylt-Romo tidal bay covering approximately 20 x 30 km(2) spanned by about 2.7 X 10(6) active grid points with the constant wind and wave fields. Findings - The computed results of seven different cases over 150 h show that the effect of bed slope correction is very strong| especially in case of largely changeable bathymetry and depends on the horizontal grid resolution. Sand grain size strongly influences the vertical distribution of suspended sediment and then sedimentation. The impact of sea water temperature is relatively clear despite being less powerful than two former parameters. Non-hydrostatic pressure perturbations of the flow field and the kind of the lower boundary condition as well as salinity are negligible allowing for considerable savings of CPU time when the numerical simulation is carried out for a large area and for a very long-time period. Originality/value - The results of the study demonstrate that the geometrical factor of coastal bed and the range of sand particle size on the bottom contribute to the tendency of bed evolution in some measure. Additionally| the increase of temperature of sea water due to global warming may also make a considerable change to the mechanism of sediment transport and sedimentation in future. Therefore| the human intervention in the process of natural evolution is possible through the behaviour to the nature. At the same time| this is also interesting and useful information and it can consolidate the idea for coastal engineering projects. 9075,2008,2,4,Effects of temperature on photosynthetic rates in Korean fir (Abies koreana) between healthy and dieback population,The present study was carried out on natural Korean fir forests (Abies koreana) growing in Mount Halla in Jeju Island| Korea (33 degrees 13-36'N and 126 degrees 12-57'E). Mount Halla is the highest mountain (1950 m a.s.l.) in South Korea. On the Korean fir forests near the top of Mount Halla in Korea| we established permanent plots between dieback and healthy population. Each permanent plot includes both dieback and relatively healthy Korean fir individuals. Three sites in this study showed similar altitude| topographic position| aspects| slope| diameter at breast height| average height and ages. Net photosynthetic rates (P(N)) on different temperature regimes were evaluated to explain the forest dieback phenomenon on Korean fir populations. Light response curves were determined on three different temperature regimes: 15 C| 20 C and 25 C. The irradiance response curve showed higher values in lower air temperatures. Generally| irradiance response curves of healthy Korean fir populations were higher than the dieback population at all sites. 8638,2008,2,4,Effects of Typhoon Disturbance on the Abundances of Two Mid-Water Fish Species in a Mountain Stream of Northern Taiwan,Ling-Chuan Chuang| Bao-Sen Shieh| Chi-Chang Liu| Yao-Sung Lin| and Shih-Hsiung Lang (2008) Effects of typhoon disturbance on the abundances of two mid-water fish species in a mountain stream of northern Taiwan. Zoological Studies 47(5): 564-573. The objective of this study was to use a 9 yr dataset to evaluate the responses of Onychostoma barbatula and Candidia barbata abundances to 3 typhoon events in a mountain stream of northern Taiwan. The association of habitat variables with fish abundances was also explored. Bimonthly electrofishing was conducted at 4 sampling sites| and habitat variables of water depth and stream length were measured after each fish sampling. Few or no significant differences in fish abundances for each site were identified among bimonthly sampling periods and years. Abundance variations did not significantly differ before and after typhoon periods in the 9 yr dataset| in typhoon years| or in non-typhoon years. These results indicated that typhoon impacts on the abundances of these 2 mid-water fishes are minor despite the potential for habitat alteration in mountain streams of Taiwan. Mid-water fish in Taiwan may adapt to flow fluctuations in mountain stream by their good swimming performance| and by staying in or quickly dispersing to deeper regions as refuges. Based on the results of this study| typhoons invading Taiwan during the wet season should be cautiously regarded as a natural disturbance. However| floods caused by typhoons which occur in the dry season may still cause reproductive threats to aquatic organisms in Taiwan. Given that global warming may become more serious in the future| greater emphasis should be placed on determining drought impacts on stream organisms in Taiwan as there is currently a lack of academic information and in situ experience. http://zoolstud.sincica.edu.tw/Journals/47.5/564.pdf 8976,2008,2,4,Effects of winter temperatures on two birch (Betula) species,In Massachusetts| low winter temperatures delay the onset of flowering in black birch (Betula lenta L.)| but not in gray birch (B. poptd folia Marsh.). During the winter of 2006| male inflorescences and twigs of black birch had higher water contents than those of gray birch| and the inflorescences of black birch experienced greater frost kill than those of gray birch. Vessels diameters were greater in black than in gray birch| a difference associated with a higher incidence of winter xylem embolism| as indicated by reduced xylem hydraulic conductance. In both species| recovery of hydraulic conductance in twigs that survived the winter coincided with the development of root pressure. Frost kill to male inflorescences or associated damage to plant tissues may account for the difference between species in the effect of winter temperature on the time of first flowering. In a comparison of 24 birch species| sensitivity of the first flowering date to temperature was also correlated with water content in male inflorescences. 1206,2008,2,4,Effects of winter versus summer flooding and subsequent desiccation on soil chemistry in a riverine hay meadow,Flooding of riparian meadows along rivers leads to a switch to anaerobic soil respiration| causing iron reduction and a corresponding release of phosphate. In addition| pollution of river water with sulphate may lead to higher phosphate release as a result of sulphide-iron interactions. As global climate change is expected to increase both temperature and the risk of summer flooding| floods may occur at higher temperatures| leading to faster anaerobic processes in soils. In a mesocosm experiment we tested the effects of flooding with or without 1 mmol L(-1) SO(4)(2-) at two temperatures on sods from a riverine hay meadow. In the control treatment| the water level was kept 10 cm below the soil surface. After four weeks at 5 degrees C| the temperature was changed to 20 degrees C| mimicking the effects of summer flooding. After seven more weeks| all sods were allowed to dry out. In the inundated sods| redox potential dropped during flooding| leading to higher concentrations of Mn(2+)| Fe(2+)| PO(4)(3-)| NH(4)(+) and Ca(2+) and a higher alkalinity of the soil pore water. Upon desiccation| redox potential increased immediately| leading to the oxidation of Mn(2+)| NH(4)(+) and Fe(2+) and causing immobilisation of PO(4)(3-) and a temporary drop in pH. Inundation at 20 degrees C resulted in a much faster release of Mn(2+)| Fe(2+)| PO(4)(3-) and Ca(2+) and a higher acid consumption compared to flooding at 5 degrees C. Reduction of the added sulphate did not lead to additional mobilisation of phosphate through competition with the produced sulphide for binding to iron| because of the high iron concentration in the soil| which is characteristic of many floodplains. It is concluded that seasonality of flooding determines accumulation rates of potential phytotoxins and the release rate of phosphate| which has important implications for floodplain management. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1155,2008,5,4,El Nino-Southern Oscillation-like variability during glacial terminations and interlatitudinal teleconnections,[1] Interannual-decadal variability in the equatorial Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induces climate changes at global scale| but its potential influence during past global climate change is not yet well constrained. New high-resolution eastern equatorial Pacific proxy records of thermocline conditions present new evidence of strong orbital control in ENSO-like variability over the last 275|000 years. Recurrent intervals of saltier thermocline waters are associated with the dominance of La Nina-like conditions during glacial terminations| coinciding with periods of low precession and high obliquity. The parallel dominance of delta(13)C-depleted waters supports the advection of Antarctic origin waters toward the tropical thermocline. This "oceanic tunneling'' is proposed to have reinforced orbitally induced changes in ENSO-like variability| composing a complex high- and low-latitude feedback during glacial terminations. 8642,2008,2,3,Elevated CO2 stimulates N2O emissions in permanent grassland,To evaluate climate forcing under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations| feedback effects on greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide (N2O) With a high global warming potential should be taken into account. This requires long-term N2O flux measurements because responses to elevated CO2 may vary throughout annual courses. Here| we present an almost 9 year long continuous N2O flux data set from a free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) study on an old| N-limited temperate grassland. Prior to the FACE start| N2O emissions were not different between plots that were later under ambient (A) and elevated (E) CO2 treatments| respectively. However| over the entire experimental period (May 1998-December 2006)| N2O emissions more than doubled under elevated CO2 (0.90 vs. 2.07 kg N2O-N ha(-1) y(-1) under A and E| respectively). The strongest stimulation occurred during vegetative growth periods in the summer when soil mineral N concentrations were low. This was surprising because based on literature we had expected the highest stimulation of N2O emissions due to elevated CO2 when mineral N concentrations were above background values (e.g. shortly after N application in spring). N2O emissions Linder elevated CO2 were moderately stimulated during late autumn-winter| including freeze-thaw cycles which occurred in the 8th winter of the experiment. Averaged over the entire experiment| the additional N2O emissions caused by elevated CO2 equaled 4738 kg CO2-equivalents ha-1| corresponding to more than half a ton (546 kg) of CO2 ha(-1) which has to be sequestered annually to balance the CO2-induced N2O emissions. Without a concomitant increase in C sequestration under rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations| temperate grasslands may be converted into greenhouse gas sources by a positive feedback on N2O emissions. Our results underline the need to include continuous N2O flux measurements in ecosystem-scale CO2 enrichment experiments. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8916,2008,4,4,Empirical estimates of global climate sensitivity: An assessment of strategies using a coupled GCM,A control integration with the normal solar constant and one with it increased by 2.5% in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled atmosphere-ocean Climate System Model were conducted to see how well the actual realized global warming could be predicted just by analysis of the control results. This is a test| within a model context| of proposals that have been advanced to use knowledge of the present day climate to make "empirical" estimates of global climate sensitivity. The scaling of the top-of-the-atmosphere infrared flux and the planetary albedo as functions of surface temperature was inferred by examining four different temporal and geographical variations of the control simulations. Each of these inferences greatly overestimates the climate sensitivity of the model| largely because of the behavior of the cloud albedo. In each inference the control results suggest that cloudiness and albedo decrease with increasing surface temperature. However| the experiment with the increased solar constant actually has higher albedo and more cloudiness at most latitudes. The increased albedo is a strong negative feedback| and this helps account for the rather weak sensitivity of the climate in the NCAR model. To the extent that these model results apply to the real world| they suggest empirical evaluation of the scaling of global-mean radiative properties with surface temperature in the present day climate provides little useful guidance for estimates of the actual climate sensitivity to global changes. 1057,2008,2,3,Energy Based Approach of Local Influence of Global Climate Change in Maize Stand,We approximated the influence of global climate change on the energy consumption of maize by a simulation model in Keszthely| referring to the average July weather. The period of 1961-1990 was considered as the basic run. We quantified the changes of the close past on the basis of the decade between 1997 and 2006. The other 6 scenarios were elaborated on the one hand by downscaling the IPCC (2007) report (A2 and B2)| on the other hand by taking into account a more serious weather change. At determining plant and soil characteristics of the individual scenarios we applied the principle of analogy being extensively used in meteorological practice; in this method we selected the values of that year from the observation data series of almost 30 years that were the closest to the year to be simulated. The ratio of latent heat decreased by 4.8% only at doubling CO(2) concentration. The largest difference in the ratio of sensible and latent heat was in the case of the run containing the highest warming up and largest precipitation decrease| where the ratio of latent heat increased by 8.8%. One of the causes of global warming is the raised CO(2) concentration narrowed the stoma openings by 14.3% in itself; it is the quantified value of the positive impact of global warming on plant evaporation| referring to Keszthely. Warming up over 6 degrees C raised the latent heat compared to the basic run in a statistically justifiable way in the case of each scenario; according to this| in Keszthely| assuming an average July| even in the case of a temperature rise of 6 degrees C there are some humidity reserves that can be used for transpiration by maize plant. Precipitation loss of 30% associated with warming up of 9 degrees C| however| reduced this reserve to a minimum. In our opinion| water seems to be the bottleneck of the future; farmers have to prepare to face the lack of water| even in the case if nowadays the forecast of precipitation changes is rather volatile. 8833,2008,3,3,Energy intensity and greenhouse gas emission of a purchase in the retail park service sector: An integrative approach,The aim of this paper is to describe the energetic metabolism of a retail park service system tinder an integrative approach. Energy flow accounting was applied to a case study retail park in Spain| representative of the sector across Europe| after redefining the functional unit to account for both direct energy use (buildings| gardens and outdoor lighting) and indirect energy use (employee and customer transportation). A life cycle assessment (LCA) was then undertaken to determine energy global warming potential (GWP) and some energy intensity and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission indicators were defined and applied. The results emphasise the importance of service systems in global warming policies| as a potential emission of 9.26 kg CO(2)/purchase was obtained for the case study| relating to a consumption of 1.64 KOE of energy| of which 21.9% was spent oil buildings and 57.9% on customer transportation. Some strategies to reduce these emissions were considered: increased supply| energy efficiency| changes in distribution of modes of transport| changes in location and changes in the mix of land uses. A combination of all of these elements in a new retail park could reduce GHG emissions by more than 50%| as it is planning strategies| which seem to be the most effective. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8966,2008,3,4,Energy potential through agricultural biomass using geographical information system - A case study of Punjab,Agricultural biomass has immense potential for power production in an Indian state like Punjab. A judicious use of biomass energy could potentially play an important role in mitigating environmental impacts of non-renewable energy sources particularly global warming and acid rain. But the availability of agricultural biomass is spatially scattered. The spatial distribution of this resource and the associate costs of collection and transportation are major bottlenecks for the success of biomass energy conversion facilities. Biomass| being scattered and loose| has huge collection and transportation costs| which can be reduced by properly planning and locating the biomass collection centers for biomass-based power plants. Before planning the collection centers| it is necessary to evaluate the biomass| energy and collection cost of biomass in the field. In this paper| an attempt has been made to evaluate the spatial potential of biomass with geographical information system (GIS) and a mathematical model for collection of biomass in the field has been developed. The total amount of unused agricultural biomass is about 13.73 Mt year(-1). The total power generation capacity from unused biomass is approximately 900 MW. The collection cost in the field up to the carrier unit is US$3.90 t(-1). (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8835,2008,3,4,Energy resources and use: The present situation and possible paths to the future,Recent estimates and forecasts of the oil| gas| coal resources and their reserve/production ratio| nuclear and renewable energy potential| and energy uses are surveyed. The impact of the rapidly growing economies of the highly populated countries| as well as of the concern about global warming| are presented and assessed. A brief discussion of the status and prospects of fossil| nuclear and renewable energy use| and of power generation (including hydrogen| fuel cells| micro power systems| and the futuristic concept of generating power in space for terrestrial use| is given. A brief summary of the energy research effort and budgets in the US| and EU are presented| and ways to resolve the problem of the availability| cost| and sustainability of energy resources alongside the rapidly rising demand are discussed. The author's view of the promising energy research and development (R&D) areas| their potential| foreseen improvements and their time scale| and last year's trends in government funding are presented. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9276,2008,3,4,ENERGY SAVINGS WITH THE EFFECT OF MAGNETIC FIELD USING R290/600a MIXTURE AS SUBSTITUTE FOR CFC12 AND HFC134a,This paper presents an experimental study on the replacement of CFC12 and HFC134a by the new R290/R600a refrigerant mixture as drop-in replacement effect of magnetic field. Without any modification to refrigerant with and without the of the system components drop-in experimental tests were performed on a vapour compression refrigeration system with a reciprocating compressor| which was originally designed to operate with CFC12. The test results with no magnets showed that the refrigerant R290/R600a had 19.9-50.1% higher refrigerating capacity than R12 and 28.6-87.2% than R134a. The mixture R290/R600a consumed 6.8-17.4% more energy than R12. The coefficient of performance of R290/R600a mixture increases from 3.9-25.1% than R12 at lower evaporating temperatures and 11.8-17.6% at higher evaporating temperatures. The effect of magnetic field force reduced the compressor energy| consumption by 1.5-2.5% than with no magnets. The coefficient of performance of the system was higher in the range 1.5-2.4% with the effect of magnetic field force. The R290/600a (68/32 by wt.%) mixture can be considered as an excellent alternative refrigerant for CFC12 and HFC134a systems. 1321,2008,3,1,Energy sources and global climate change: The Byrazilian case,If the world continues to follow a business as usual energy path| current projections of increased energy demand threaten a massive disruption of the global biosphere| as fossil fuels consumption is the primary cause of global warming. Climate change is a direct threat to sustainable development itself| especially in developing countries that are most vulnerable to its impacts. Within this context| the potential role of renewable energy (RE) is twofold: cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the industrialized world and expanding energy supply to the world's poor while curbing the increase of GHG emissions from developing countries. In fact| an adequate supply of RE is an important key to sustainable economic| environmental| and social development for many countries. The country of Brazil is reviewed as a particularly illustrative example of this point| thanks to the large-scale use of hydropower and sugarcane products (ethanol and bagasse) and to a huge RE potential yet to be tapped. 9023,2008,3,3,Energy-saving technologies for automobiles,Since entering the 21st century| we have been facing a globally urgent need for all nations| without exception| to deal with environmental concerns such as global warming and energy issues arising from the depletion of fossil fuels. As a countermeasure| next-generation vehicles for a recycling-based society that are energy-efficient| compact| light| low-cost and reliable need to spread in the society. In this study| we will explain the basic philosophy of how to approach next-generation energy-saving technologies for automobiles| the current status and technological issues of internal combustion engines (ICE)| hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs)| electric vehicles (EVs)| and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) with the latest examples. (C) 2008 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons| Inc. 1337,2008,3,4,Engineering civilisation from the shadows,This paper discusses the key issues| opportunities and obligations facing civil engineers to engineer civilisation from the shadows cast by world poverty and global climate change. Almost all of the 1.5 billion population increase occurring by 2025 will be in urban slums in the developing world| with little in the way of civil infrastructure to protect them from disease| famine| drought and flooding. The provision of effective infrastructure| and with it the delivery of the UN millennium development goals| is vital if they are to survive. The paper is based on the author's ICE Brunel international lecture| which was presented in 16 countries during 2007. 8917,2008,2,4,ENSO amplitude change in observation and coupled models,Observations show that the tropical El Ni (n) over tildeo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability| after removing both the long term trend and decadal change of the background climate| has been enhanced by as much as 60% during the past 50 years. This shift in ENSO amplitude can be related to mean state changes in global climate. Past global warming has caused a weakening of the Walker circulation over the equatorial Indo-Pacific oceans| as well as a weakening of the trade winds and a reduction in the equatorial upwelling. These changes in tropical climatology play as stabilizing factors of the tropical coupling system. However| the shallower and strengthening thermocline in the equatorial Pacific increases the SST sensitivity to thermocline and wind stress variabilities and tend to destabilize the tropical coupling system. Observations suggest that the destabilizing factors| such as the strengthening thermocline| may have overwhelmed the stabilizing effects of the atmosphere| and played a deterministic role in the enhanced ENSO variability| at least during the past half century. This is different from the recent assessment of IPCC-AR4 coupled models. 1345,2008,4,4,Environment and Health in the Twenty-First Century Challenges and Solutions,There are major challenges facing the countries in the Pacific Basin. These include issues of hazardous waste management and the consequent adverse effects of hazardous wastes on human health| the potential disruption of our whole way of life as a consequence of global climate change| and the increasing problem on human health of air pollution and the effects of breathing polluted air. These issues and others were the focus of the 12th meeting of the Pacific Basin Consortium for Environment and Health Sciences| held in Beijing in late 2007. This volume is a collection of papers presented at that meeting| and this introductory chapter provides some perspective on three of the major issues that are of concern in all of the countries in this region. This meeting provided an opportunity for Chinese scientists and those from other countries in the Pacific Basin to share perspectives and possible solutions with others from the international community| and these various approaches are reflected in these proceedings. 8802,2008,3,3,Environmental and health impact by dairy cattle livestock and manure management in the Czech Republic,In this study we evaluate the potential environmental and health impact of dairy cattle livestock and manure management in the Czech Republic. We present a new approach for national assessments of the environmental impact of an agricultural sector. Emission estimates are combined with a country-specific set of indicators to assess the environmental impact in nine regions with specific environmental characteristics. We estimate the contribution of emissions of ammonia (NH(3)) and nitrogen oxides (NO) to acidification and terrestrial eutrophication| nitrate (NO(3)) and phosphate (PO(4)) to aquatic eutrophication| nitrogen oxides (NO)| particulate matter (PM(10)) and (PM(2.5)) to human toxicity and methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (NO) to global warming. We present large regional differences in the environmental and health impact per unit of agricultural production. The regional acidifying| eutrophying and global warming impact of dairy cattle is calculated to be up to three times the national average| depending on the dairy cattle intensity. Aquatic eutrophication is found to be a problem in regions with relatively high eutrophying emissions per hectare of so-called nitrate vulnerable zones. Human toxicity problems caused by dairy cattle livestock and manure management are problematic in regions with a high population density in rural areas. The strength of our approach is the use of country-specific characterisation factors to assess the potential environmental and health impact of agriculture at the sub-national scale. We were able to analyse the potential environmental impact without explicit quantification of specific effects on humans and ecosystems. The results can be used to identify the most polluted areas as well as appropriate targets for emission reduction. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9273,2008,3,3,Environmental assessment of digestibility improvement factors applied in animal production,Background| Aims and Scope. Many feed ingredients are not fully digested by livestock. However| the addition of digestibility-improving enzymes to the feed can improve the absorption of e.g. energy and protein and thereby enhance the nutrient value of the feed. Feed production is a major source of environmental impacts in animal production| and it is obvious to assume that enzyme supplementation can help to reduce the environmental impact of animal production. The purpose of the study is| therefore| to assess and compare the environmental burdens of the supplements and compare them with the savings made when enzymes are used in animal production. The properties of enzymes vary considerably and the study takes as its starting point a particular enzyme product| Ronozyme WX CT. Ronozyme WX CT is a xylanase which depolymerises xylans (a group of dietary fibres found in cereal cell walls) into smaller units. The product is a widely accepted means of improving the energy value and the protein digestibility of pig and poultry feed. The study relates to Ronozyme WX CT used for fattening pigs produced in Denmark. Methods. Lifecycle assessment is used as the analytical method| and Ronozyme WX CT production and reductions in feed consumption are modelled using SimaPro 7.0.2. Data on Ronozyme WX CT production are derived from Novozymes' production facilities in Denmark. Other data are derived from the literature and from public databases. Changes in feed consumption are determined by modelling in AgroSoft (R) feed optimisation software. Guidelines from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are used to estimate reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases resulting from reduced manure generation and changed manure composition. Results. The study shows that the use of Ronozyme WX CT to increase the nutritional value of pig feed is justified by major advantages in terms of reduced potential contribution to global warming| acidification and photochemical ozone formation and reduced use of energy| and in most cases also nutrient enrichment and use of agricultural land. Ronozyme WX CT (xylanase) is often used together with Ronozyme P5000 CT (phytase) and together the two products can contribute considerably to reducing a broad range of environmental impacts from pig production. Discussion. Reduced contribution to acidification and nutrient enrichment is partly driven by reduced feed consumption and partly reduced N-emissions with manure resulting from reduced protein content of the feed. Sensitivity analyses of a range of parameters show that the observed advantages are generally robust although exact magnitudes of environmental advantages are associated with much variation and uncertainty. It should| however| be noted that changes (e.g. of feed prices) may turn contributions to nutrient enrichment and use of agricultural land into trade-offs. Conclusions. Improvement of energy and protein value of pigfeed by application of Ronozyme xylanase and following feed savings reduces impact on environment per unit of pig-meat produced| and the enzyme product contributes to a sustainable development the Danish pork meat supply. Recommendations. Digestibility-improving enzymes are a promising means of reducing the environmental impact of pig production. The greenhouse gas reducing potential of Ronozyme WX CT in Danish pig production has been estimated at 5% and in the order of 4 million tons of CO| equivalents if the results are extended to the whole of Europe. Use of Ronozyme WX CT is driven by overall cost savings in animal production| and it is therefore recommended that digestibility-improving enzymes are given more attention as a cost-efficient means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 9037,2008,3,4,Environmental assessment of enzyme assisted processing in pulp and paper industry,Background Aims and Scope. The pulp and paper (P&P) industry is traditionally known to be a large contributor to environmental pollution due its large consumptions of energy and chemicals. Enzymatic processing| however| offers potential opportunities for changing the industry towards more environmentally friendly and efficient operations compared to the conventional methods. The aims of the present study has been to investigate whether the enzyme technology is a more environmentally sound alternative than the conventional ways of producing paper. The study addresses five enzyme applications by quantitative means and discusses the environmental potential of a range of other enzyme applications by qualitative means. Methods. LCA is used as analytical tool and modelling is facilitated in SimaPro software. Foreground LCA data are production/company specific and collected from P&P technology service providers| specific P&P companies and P&P researchers. The background data on energy systems| auxiliary chemicals| etc. are primarily taken from the ecoinvent database. Results. The study shows that fossil energy consumption and potential environmental impacts (global warming| acidification| nutrient enrichment| photochemical smog formation) induced by enzyme production are low compared with the impacts that they save when applied in bleach boosting| refining| pitch control| deinking| and stickies control. Discussion. The general explanation is that small amounts of enzyme provide the same function as large amounts of chemicals and that enzymatic processes generally require less fossil energy inputs than conventional processes. Data quality assessments and sensitivity analyses indicate that this observation is robust for all processes except deinking| although the results are subject to uncertainty and much variation. Conclusions and Recommendations. The environmental improvements that can be achieved by application of enzymatic solutions in the P&P industry are promising. To get a greater penetration of enzymatic solutions in the market and to harvest the environmental advantages of biotechnological inventions| it is recommended that enzymatic solutions should be given more attention in| for instance| 'Best Available Technology' notes within the framework of the European Directive on Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC). 1256,2008,4,4,Environmental awareness of the permanent inhabitants of towns and villages on the shores of Lake Balaton with special reference to issues related to global climate change,Lake Balaton| one of the largest lakes in Europe| is an important centre for summer tourism in Hungary. The appearance of the water is| however| influenced by a number of physical and biological factors such as the frequency of storms| the hydrological balance| the water level and the growth of algae. Here we report the results of a survey designed to test the reaction of the local population to these seasonal and inter-annual variations. This survey was based on a questionnaire completed by 960 permanent inhabitants of the shoreline villages and was designed to explore their awareness of the local and regional factors responsible for the changes. About one-quarter of the respondents considered that the drying effects of global climate change had already had an effect on the Lake Balaton area. Although younger (16-26) and middle-aged (27-50) respondents benefit most from good water quality| those in the oldest age group (51-92) were more concerned about the quality of the water and broader issues such as biodiversity and the conservation of the landscape. Considering that the future of the lake depends on the youngest generation| this suggests that their environmental education could be improved to strengthen their understanding of environmental issues. 1210,2008,2,4,Environmental determinants of the distribution and abundance of the ants| Lasiophanes picinus and L-valdiviensis| in Argentina,The distribution and abundance variation of the terrestrial ants| Lasiophanes picinus and Lasiophanes valdiviensis Emery (Formicinae: Lasiini)| which are endemic in Patagonia ( Argentina and Chile)| are described and a set of environmental factors are examined to explain the observed patterns. Ants were collected using 450 pitfall traps arranged in 50| 100 m(2) grid plots each with nine traps within a roughly 150 x 150 km area representative of the subantartic-patagonian transition of Argentina. Five sampling periods each 8-days long were carried out between November 2004 and March 2006. To understand the distributional patterns and their link to environmental variables discriminant analysis was used. Path analysis was performed to test for direct and indirect effects of a set of environmental variables on species abundance variation. L. picinus was more frequently captured and attained higher abundance in the forests| while L. valdiviensis was more frequently captured and more abundant in the scrubs. The maximum daily temperature and mean annual precipitation explained L. picinus distribution (i.e. presence or absence) with an accuracy of 90%. L. valdiviensis distribution was predicted with almost 70% accuracy| taking into account herbal richness. The maximum daily temperature was the only climatic variable that affected ant abundance directly; an increase in temperature led to an increase of L. picinus abundance and a decrease of L. valdiviensis abundance. The amount of resources| as indicated by the percent plant cover| explained the variation of the abundance of both species better than the variety of resources as indicated by plant richness (i.e. models including plant richness had low fit or no fit at all). A direct effect of habitat use by cattle was found| as indicated by the amount of feces in the plots| only when variables related to the amount of resources were replaced by variables with less explanatory power related to the variety of resources. This study provides new data on the ecology of Lasiophanes species in relation to existing hypotheses proposed to explain patterns of abundance variation. Evidence is provided that changes in temperature (i.e. global climate change) may have important consequences on populations of these species. 9173,2008,3,3,Environmental evaluation of an air-conditioning system supplied by cooling energy from a bore-hole based heat pump system,An evaluation of the environmental impacts of an air-conditioning system which uses a bore-hole system for heating and cooling is the aim of this case study. To facilitate the evaluation| the bore-hole based air-conditioning system is compared with a reference system that uses a more traditional source of heat (district heating) and cooling energy (refrigeration). Environmental impacts of the system are examined by the life cycle assessment (LCA) method| including the weighting step. Results show that the bore-hole based system performs better in three of the four impact categories investigated: acidification| eutrofication| and global warming potential (GWP) with a 100-year horizon. This is mainly due to the fact that it uses less material in the production phase and less operating energy during the user stage. However| in the category of photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP)| it performs four times worse than the more traditional system. Nevertheless| the overall environmental impact of the bore-hole based system| evaluated by common weighting methods| is better than the more traditional system. The most dominant environmental impact of both systems arises from the operating energy| although the energy use in the building studied is low. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1204,2008,2,4,Environmental Factors Affecting Recent Summertime Eelgrass Diebacks in the Lower Chesapeake Bay: Implications for Long-term Persistence,We investigated the effects of several environmental factors on eelgrass abundance before| during| and after wide|I-Oft oft spread eelgrass diebacks during the unusually hot summer of 2005 in the Chesapeake Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve in Virginia. Systematic sampling with fixed transects was used to investigate changes in eelgrass abundance at downriver and upriver regions of the York River Estuary. Concurrently| continuous and discreet measurements of water quality were made at fixed stations in each area within the eelgrass beds from 2004 through 2006. Results indicate nearly complete eelgrass vegetative dieback during the July-August period of 2005| in contrast to the more seasonal and typical declines in the summer of 2004. Losses were greatest in the deeper areas of the beds and at the upriver site where light availabilities were lowest. Recovery of eelgrass during 2006 was greater in the downriver area| especially at mid-bed depths. By the fall of 2006| no shoot vegetation remained at the upriver site. In 2005| the frequency and duration of water temperatures exceeding 30 degrees C were significantly greater than that of 2004 and 2006. Additionally| the frequencies of low dissolved oxygen excursions of 1-3 mg L(-1) during this period were greater in 2005 than 2004 or 2006. These results suggest that eelgrass populations in this estuary are growing near their physiological tolerances. Therefore| the combined effects of short-term exposures to very high summer temperatures| compounded by reduced oxygen and light conditions| may lead to long-term declines of this species from this system. 8420,2008,3,3,Environmental impacts of a Japanese dairy farming system using whole-crop rice silage as evaluated by life cycle assessment,The objectives of this study were to assess and compare the environmental impacts of two types of dairy farming systems| one of which makes use of whole-crop rice silage and the other of which is conventional| using life cycle assessment (LCA). The functional unit was defined as 1 kg of 4% fat-corrected milk (FCM). The processes associated with the dairy farming life cycle| such as feed production| feed transport| animal management including biological activity of the animal| and waste treatment were included within the system's boundaries. Environmental impacts of the rice silage-using and conventional dairy farming systems were 987 and 972 g CO(2) equivalents for global warming| 6.87 and 7.13 g SO(2) equivalents for acidification| 1.19 and 1.23 g PO(4) equivalents for eutrophication| and 5.53 and 5.81 MJ for energy consumption| respectively. Our results suggest that the dairy farming system using rice silage in Japan has smaller environmental impacts for acidification| eutrophication| and energy consumption| and a larger impact for global warming compared with conventional farming. Further interpretation integrating these impact categories suggested 1.1% lower environmental impact of the rice silage-using dairy farming system as a whole. 8975,2008,3,4,Environmental impacts of introducing grain legumes into European crop rotations,Raw materials for animal feeding are highly deficient in Europe| which results in massive imports of soya beans from North and South America. These imports are connected with a number of environmental problems. Increasing the grain legume production in Europe could be a promising alternative. The impacts of introducing grain legumes into existing European crop rotations are investigated in this article. The environmental impacts are evaluated by using the SALCA (Swiss Agricultural Life Cycle Assessment) life cycle assessment method and the ecoinvent life cycle inventory database. Four regions with potential for increasing their grain legume area were chosen for this study: Saxony-Anhalt (Germany)| Barrois (France)| Canton Vaud (Switzerland) and Castilla y Leon (Spain). In each of these regions| two crop rotations were defined: a typical cereal-based rotation without grain leaumes and an alternative rotation including grain legumes. The production data were collected by the local project partners from statistics| surveys| literature| documents from extension services and using expert knowledge. The impacts of these two crop rotations were compared relative to three functional units representing different functions of agriculture: hectare per year as a measure of the land management function| E gross margin 1 for the financial function and GJ gross energy of the harvested biomass for the productive function. The following environmental impacts were analysed: demand for non-renewable energy resources| global warming potential| ozone formation| eutrophication| acidification| terrestrial and aquatic ecotoxicity as well as human toxicity. For Canton Vaud| the impacts on biodiversity and soil quality were assessed in addition. Analysed per unit of cultivated area| the introduction of grain legumes into intensive crop rotations with a high proportion of cereals and intensive N-fertilisation leads to a reduced energy use| global warming potential| ozone formation and acidification as well as eco- and human toxicity. The main reasons for this are a reduced application of N-fertilisers (no N to the grain legume and less N to the following crop)| improved possibilities for using reduced tillage techniques and greater diversification of the crop rotation| which helps to reduce problems caused by weeds and pathogens (and therefore pesticide applications). The nitrate leaching potential tends to be higher in general| but can be reduced by including catch crops or early sowing of winter grain legumes| where possible. No differences were found for the impacts of crop management on soil quality and biodiversity (studied in Canton Vaud only). In the low-input crop rotation in Spain| the introduction of peas had no favourable environmental effect| mainly because little or no N-fertiliser can be saved. The analysis per sic gross margin 1 (financial function) leads to slightly more favourable results for the grain legume crop rotations compared to the analysis per ha and year. Due to the lower yields of grain legumes compared with cereals| the advantages of grain legumes are smaller when considered per GJ gross energy of the harvested products (productive function). However| the energy efficiency is higher in crop rotations with grain legumes. On the whole| introducing grain legumes into European crop rotations offers interesting options for reducing environmental burdens| especially in a context of depleted fossil energy resources and climate change. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8666,2008,3,4,Environmental life cycle assessment of a commercial office building in Thailand,Background| aim| and scope To minimize the environmental impacts of construction and simultaneously move closer to sustainable development in the society| the life cycle assessment of buildings is essential. This article provides an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) of a typical commercial office building in Thailand. Almost all commercial office buildings in Thailand follow a similar structural| envelope pattern as well as usage patterns. Likewise| almost every office building in Thailand operates on electricity| which is obtained from the national grid which limits variability. Therefore| the results of the single case study building are representative of commercial office buildings in Thailand. Target audiences are architects| building construction managers and environmental policy makers who are interested in the environmental impact of buildings. Materials and methods In this work| a combination of input-output and process analysis was used in assessing the potential environmental impact associated with the system under study according to the ISO14040 methodology. The study covered the whole life cycle including material production| construction| occupation| maintenance| demolition| and disposal. The inventory data was simulated in an LCA model and the environmental impacts for each stage computed. Three environmental impact categories considered relevant to the Thailand context were evaluated| namely| global warming potential| acidification potential| and photo-oxidant formation potential. A 50-year service time was assumed for the building. Results The results obtained showed that steel and concrete are the most significant materials both in terms of quantities used| and also for their associated environmental impacts at the manufacturing stage. They accounted for 24% and 47% of the global warming potential| respectively. In addition| of the total photo-oxidant formation potential| they accounted for approximately 41% and 30%; and| of the total acidification potential| 37% and 42%| respectively. Analysis also revealed that the life cycle environmental impacts of commercial buildings are dominated by the operation stage| which accounted for approximately 52% of the total global warming potential| about 66% of the total acidification potential| and about 71% of the total photo-oxidant formation potential| respectively. The results indicate that the principal contributor to the impact categories during the operation phase were emissions related to fossil fuel combustion| particularly for electricity production. Discussion The life cycle environmental impacts of commercial buildings are dominated by the operation stage| especially electricity consumption. Significant reductions in the environmental impacts of buildings at this stage can be achieved through reducing their operating energy. The results obtained show that increasing the indoor set-point temperature of the building by 2C| as well as the practice of load shedding| reduces the environmental burdens of buildings at the operation stage. On a national scale| the implementation of these simple no-cost energy conservation measures have the potential to achieve estimated reductions of 10.2% global warming potential| 5.3% acidification potential| and 0.21% photo-oxidant formation potential per year| respectively| in emissions from the power generation sector. Overall| the measures could reduce approximately 4% per year from the projected global warming potential of 211.51 Tg for the economy of Thailand. Conclusions Operation phase has the highest energy and environmental impacts| followed by the manufacturing phase. At the operation phase| significant reductions in the energy consumption and environmental impacts can be achieved through the implementation of simple no-cost energy conservation as well as energy efficiency strategies. No-cost energy conservation policies| which minimize energy consumption in commercial buildings| should be encouraged in combination with already existing energy efficiency measures of the government. Recommendations and perspectives In the long run| the environmental impacts of buildings will need to be addressed. Incorporation of environmental life cycle assessment into the current building code is proposed. It is difficult to conduct a full and rigorous life cycle assessment of an office building. A building consists of many materials and components. This study made an effort to access reliable data on all the life cycle stages considered. Nevertheless| there were a number of assumptions made in the study due to the unavailability of adequate data. In order for life cycle modeling to fulfill its potential| there is a need for detailed data on specific building systems and components in Thailand. This will enable designers to construct and customize LCAs during the design phase to enable the evaluation of performance and material tradeoffs across life cycles without the excessive burden of compiling an inventory. Further studies with more detailed| reliable| and Thailand-specific inventories for building materials are recommended. 8822,2008,3,4,Environmental life cycle assessment of zero liquid discharge treatment technologies for textile industries| Tirupur - A case study,Inventorisation of inputs (chemicals and energy) for treating textile wastewater using pretreatment| reverse osmosis (RO) and evaporator for two representative textile wastewater treatment plants have been studied. All life cycle inventory data were recalculated per functional unit| which was defined as treatment of 1 m(3) of textile wastewater. Evaporator consumes 48% of electricity| which contributes for more global warming potential (GWP) than other treatments units. Total GWP for plant I and II are 4049 kg CO2 eq and 5.56 kg CO2 eq respectively. During electricity generation| CO2 emission is comparatively high (98.5% of total emissions). The results indicate that RO system of plant I and II consumes less energy and GWP are 8.9 x 10(-3) kg CO2 eq and 0.011 kg CO2 eq respectively. Human health impact is 7.4 E-05 for CO2 emission| which is less for other emissions. The results can be used for strategic decisions for minimizing environmental impacts of zero liquid treatment technologies.
9263,2008,5,4,Environmental response to the cold climate event 8200 years ago as recorded at Hojby So| Denmark,The need for accurate predictions of future environmental change under conditions of global warming has led to a great interest in the most pronounced climate change known from the Holocene: an abrupt cooling event around 8200 years before present (present = A. D. 1950)| also known as the '8.2 ka cooling event' (ka = kilo-annum = 1000 years). This event has been recorded as a negative delta(18)O excursion in the central Greenland ice cores (lasting 160 years with the lowest temperature at 8150 B. P.; Johnsen et al. 1992; Dansgaard 1993; Alley et al. 1997; Thomas et al. 2007) and in a variety of other palaeoclimatic archives including lake sediments| ocean cores| speleothems| tree rings| and glacier oscillations from most of the Northern Hemisphere (e. g. Alley & Agustsdottir 2005; Rohling & Palike 2005). In Greenland the maximum cooling was estimated to be 6 +/- 2 degrees C (Alley et al. 1997) while in southern Fennoscandia and the Baltic countries pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructions indicate a maximum annual mean temperature decrease of around 1.5 degrees C (e. g. Seppa et al. 2007). Today there is a general consensus that the primary cause of the cooling event was the final collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet near Hudson Bay and the associated sudden drainage of the proglacial Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic Ocean around 8400 B. P. (Fig. 1; Barber et al. 1999; Kleiven et al. 2008). This freshwater outflow| estimated to amount to c. 164|000 km(3) of water| reduced the strength of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and thereby the heat transported to the North Atlantic region| resulting in an atmospheric cooling (Barber et al. 1999; Clark et al. 2001; Teller et al. 2002). The climatic consequences of this meltwater flood are assumed to be a good geological analogue for future climate-change scenarios| as a freshening of the North Atlantic is projected by almost all global-warming models (e. g. Wood et al. 2003; IPCC 2007) and is also currently being registered in the region (Curry et al. 2003). In an ongoing project| the influence of the 8.2 ka cooling event on a Danish terrestrial and lake ecosystem is being investigated using a variety of biological and geochemical proxy data from a sediment core extracted from Hojby So| north-west Sjaelland (Fig. 2). Here we present data on changes in lake hydrology and terrestrial vegetation in response to climate change| inferred from macrofossil data and pollen analysis| respectively.
9211,2008,4,4,Environmental sensing: strategies| technologies and applications,Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of environmental sensing technologies and applications and to consider briefly the research effort. Design/methodology/approach - This paper describes environmental sensing strategies and technologies for air| water quality and other monitoring applications. It concludes with a brief overview of research. Findings - As a consequence of legislation| a technologically diverse family of sensors are used in a wide range of portable and fixed instruments to determine numerous polluting compounds entering and present in the environment. These play a critical role in protecting the environment| maintaining public health and monitoring global phenomena such as ozone depletion and artificial global warming. There is a widespread and technologically diverse research effort. Originality/value - This paper provides a detailed insight into the sensors and instruments used in environmental monitoring. 9036,2008,5,4,Escaping the heat: range shifts of reef coral taxa in coastal Western Australia,One of the most critical challenges facing ecologists today is to understand the changing geographic distribution of species in response to current and predicted global warming. Coastal Western Australia is a natural laboratory in which to assess the effect of climate change on reef coral communities over a temporal scale unavailable to studies conducted solely on modern communities. Reef corals composing Late Pleistocene reef assemblages exposed at five distinct localities along the west Australian coast were censused and the results compared with coral occurrence data published for the modern reefs offshore of each locality. The resulting comparative data set comprises modern and Late Pleistocene reef coral communities occurring over approximately 12 degrees of latitude. For the modern reefs this gradient includes the zone of overlap between the Dampierian and Flindersian Provinces. Modern reef coral communities show a pronounced gradient in coral composition over the latitudinal range encompassed by the study| while the gradient in community composition is not as strong for Pleistocene communities. Tropical-adapted taxa contracted their ranges north since Late Pleistocene time| emplacing two biogeographic provinces in a region in which a single province had existed previously. Beta diversity values for adjacent communities also reflect this change. Modern reefs show a distinct peak in beta diversity in the middle of the region; the peak is not matched by Pleistocene reefs. Beta diversity is correlated with distance only for comparisons between modern reefs in the north and the fossil assemblages| further supporting change in distribution of the biogeographic provinces in the study area. Coral taxa present in modern communities clearly expanded and contracted their geographic ranges in response to climate change. Those taxa that distinguish Pleistocene from modern reefs are predicted to migrate south in response to future climate change| and potentially persist in 'temperature refugia' as tropical reef communities farther north decline. 8451,2008,3,4,Estimating Construction Project Environmental Effects Using an Input-Output-Based Hybrid Life-Cycle Assessment Model,The design and construction industries have ail increasing interest ill and responsibility for a building's environmental effects over its entire life cycle. Quantification of all building phases is important in life-cycle assessments (LCAs). especially for the construction phase| which is often disregarded. This research uses an input-output-based LCA framework to create a more comprehensive estimate of the environmental effects of construction processes. The hybrid LCA model is| based oil Carnegie Mellon University's Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tool and combines a new EIO-LCA "hybrid" interface with updated and reformulated environmental effect vectors for EIO-LCA's 13 construction sectors. Eight construction Project case studies modeled on the input-output (I-O)-based hybrid LCA framework demonstrate the model's broad applicability; gasoline. particulate matter. and global warming potential effects generally increased across all construction sectors and case studies. The I-O-based hybrid LCA model for construction is intended to help decision makers make more informed decisions regarding the Construction industry. adding environmental quality and sustainable development as project goals instead of unintentional benefits of economic decisions. 9214,2008,3,4,Estimating cost structures in the US nuclear power industry,With growing concerns about global warming and surging oil prices| nuclear power is now back on the U.S. energy policy agenda. This paper provides firm level analysis of the production technology and cost structures in the U.S. nuclear power generation industry. The paper applies an econometric approach into a dual restricted variable cost function within a "temporal equilibrium" framework. A panel data set of 32 nuclear power generations for major U.S. investor owned utilities over the period 1986-2002 is used. The major finding indicates that most electric utilities in the nuclear electricity generation industry over utilized capital in production. The estimated results show evidence of scale economies in the production of the electricity industry. The paper presents supporting evidence that nuclear technology is cheaper than other alternative technologies and fuels| and it can offer possible cost savings to other alternative technologies. 8575,2008,4,4,Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach,Weather services base their operational definitions of "present" climate on past observations| using a 30-year normal period such as 1961-1990 or 1971-2000. In a world with ongoing global warming| however| past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a "delta change" method| in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time| to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991-2002| the method works well for temperature| with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961-1990. However| no improvement is found for precipitation| for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that| as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica| 8-9 months per year and 8-9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971-2000. Along with the overall warming| a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected. 8570,2008,3,4,Estimating the environmental burdens of residential energy supply systems through material input and emission factors,This paper introduces a method and application for the assessment of environmental burdens due to the construction and operation of a residential energy supply system. The methodology encompasses energy and environmental impact analyses with sensitivity analysis. Here| natural resource consumption is assessed through material input factors. Global warming and acidification potentials are estimated by way of CO| and SO| equivalents. A simple optimization scheme is established to capture uncertainties related to preferential treatment between natural resource categories. A computational Study on the energy Supply Of a group of low-energy single-family houses in Finland is presented. Specifically| the potential of micro-cogeneration is evaluated with respect to traditional options based on grid electricity| district heat and natural gas. The energy analysis suggests that the operation of a heating system causes a major part of environmental burdens and that no more than 1000 W on-site generated electrical power per one household would result in minimum thermal losses and thus environmental burdens. Oil the basis of environmental impact analysis| the use of state-of-the-art micro-cogeneration may decrease the annual use of abiotic resources and water to some extent. but for practical applications| further improvement of system efficiency is still required. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1140,2008,2,4,Estimating the nonlinear response of tropical ocean to extratropical forcing in a coupled climate model,The nonlinear response of the tropical ocean to the extratropical forcing is quantitatively estimated using a coupled climate model. Preliminary results based on sensitivity experiments show that the tropical response attributed to nonlinear processes is less than 10% of the linear response for annual mean climatology. This occurs mainly because the ocean circulations| especially the meridional overturning circulation| tend to change proportionally with external forcings. This work provides a practical estimate of oceanic nonlinear response to global climate change in a complex model system| which in turn may allow the assessment of future climate change from the linear extrapolation of current climate. 8765,2008,2,4,Estimating trends of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation from long-term hydrographic data and model simulations,The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a central role for the climate in the Atlantic realm. Since scenarios for future climate change indicate a significant reduction of the MOC under global warming| an assessment of variations and trends of the real MOC is important. Using observations at ocean weather ship (OWS) stations and along oceanic sections| we examine the hydrographic information that can be used to determine MOC trends via its signature in water mass properties obtained from model simulations with the climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. We show that temperature trends at mid-latitudes provide useful indirect measure of large-scale changes of deep circulation: A mid-depth warming is related to MOC weakening and a cooling to MOC strengthening. Based on our model experiments| we argue that a continuation of measurements at key OWS sites may contribute to a timely detection of a possible future MOC slowdown and to separate the signal from interannual-to-multidecadal MOC variability. The simulations suggest that the subsurface hydrographic information related to MOC has a lower variability than the MOC trend measured directly. Based on our model and the available long-term hydrographic data| we estimate non-significant MOC trends for the last 80 years. For the twenty-first century| however| the model simulations predict a significant MOC decline and accompanied mid-depth warming trend. 9244,2008,2,4,Estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect using growth rate anomalies of CO2 and crop yields since 1961,The effect of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) on crop yields is one of the most uncertain and influential parameters in models used to assess climate change impacts and adaptations. A primary reason for this uncertainty is the limited availability of experimental data on CO2 responses for crops grown under typical field conditions. However| because of historical variations in CO2| each year farmers throughout the world perform uncontrolled yield 'experiments' under different levels of CO2. In this study| measurements of atmospheric CO2 growth rates and crop yields for individual countries since 1961 were compared with empirically determine the average effect of a 1 ppm increase of CO2 on yields of rice| wheat| and maize. Because the gradual increase in CO2 is highly correlated with major changes in technology| management| and other yield controlling factors| we focused on first differences of CO2 and yield time series. Estimates of CO2 responses obtained from this approach were highly uncertain| reflecting the relatively small importance of year-to-year CO2 changes for yield variability. Combining estimates from the top 20 countries for each crop resulted in estimates with substantially less uncertainty than from any individual country. The results indicate that while current datasets cannot reliably constrain estimates beyond previous experimental studies| an empirical approach supported by large amounts of data may provide a potentially valuable and independent assessment of this critical model parameter. For example| analysis of reliable yield records from hundreds of individual| independent locations (as opposed to national scale yield records with poorly defined errors) may result in empirical estimates with useful levels of uncertainty to complement estimates from experimental studies. 9142,2008,4,4,Estimation of the vertical profile of sulfur dioxide injection into the atmosphere by a volcanic eruption using satellite column measurements and inverse transport modeling,An analytical inversion method has been developed to estimate the vertical profile of SO(2) emissions from volcanic eruptions. The method uses satellite-observed total SO(2) columns and an atmospheric transport model (FLEXPART) to exploit the fact that winds change with altitude - thus| the position and shape of the volcanic plume bear information on its emission altitude. The method finds the vertical emission distribution which minimizes the total difference between simulated and observed SO(2) columns while also considering a priori information. We have tested the method with the eruption of Jebel at Tair| Yemen| on 30 September 2007 for which a comprehensive observational data set from various satellite instruments (AIRS| OMI| SEVIRI| CALIPSO) is available. Using satellite data from the first 24 h after the eruption for the inversion| we found an emission maximum near 16 km above sea level (a.s.l.)| and secondary maxima near 5| 9| 12 and 14 km a.s.l. 60% of the emission occurred above the tropopause. The emission profile obtained in the inversion was then used to simulate the transport of the plume over the following week. The modeled plume agrees very well with SO(2) total columns observed by OMI| and its altitude agrees with CALIPSO aerosol observations to within 1-2 km. The inversion result is robust against various changes in both the a priori and the observations. Even when using only SEVIRI data from the first 15 h after the eruption| the emission profile was reasonably well estimated. The method is computationally very fast. It is therefore suitable for implementation within an operational environment| such as the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers| to predict the threat posed by volcanic ash for air traffic. It could also be helpful for assessing the sulfur input into the stratosphere| be it in the context of volcanic processes or also for proposed geo-engineering techniques to counteract global warming. 8845,2008,3,4,Ethical rooms for Maneuver and their prospects Vis-A-vis the current ethical food policies in Europe,In this paper I want to show that consumer concerns can be implemented in food chains by organizing ethical discussions of conflicting values that include them as participators. First| it is argued that there are several types of consumer concerns about food and agriculture that are multi-interpretable and often contradict each other or are at least difficult to reconcile without considerable loss. Second| these consumer concerns are inherently dynamic because they respond to difficult and complex societal and technological situations and developments. For example| because of the rising concern with global warming| carbon dioxide absorption of crops is now attracting public attention| which means that new requirements are being proposed for the environmentally friendly production of crops. Third| there are different types of consumers| and their choices between conflicting values differ accordingly. Consumers use different weighing models and various types of information in making their food choices. Changing food chains more in accordance with consumer concerns should at least take into account the multi-interpretable| dynamic| and pluralist features of consumer concerns| for example| in traceability schemes. In discussing usual approaches such as codes| stakeholder analysis| and assurance schemes| I conclude that these traditional approaches can be helpful. However| in cases of dynamic| pluralistic| and uncertain developments| maintaining some pre-existing evaluating scheme or some clear cut normative hierarchy| such as codes or assurance schemes| can be disastrous in undermining new ethical desirable initiatives. Instead of considering ethical standards and targets as fixed| which is done with codes and schemes| it is more fruitful to emphasize the structure of the processes in which ethical weighing of relevant consumer concerns get shaped. The concept of "Ethical Room for Maneuver" (ERM) is constructed to specify the ethical desirable conditions under which identification and weighing of paramount values and their dilemmas can be processed. The main aims of the ERM are making room in all the links of the food chain for regulating and implementing the relevant consumer concerns by (1) balancing and negotiating| (2) supporting information systems that are relevant and communicative for various consumer groups and (3) organizing consumer involvement in the links of the food chain. The social and political context of agriculture and food production| particularly in Europe| gives ample opportunity for implementing several types of Ethical Rooms for Maneuver. Finally| I discuss several types of Ethical Rooms for Manoeuvre in the food chains that can be communicated by means of specific traceability schemes to less involved stakeholders with the potential consequence that the stakeholders will be motivated to be more involved. 8636,2008,2,4,European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?,Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations| especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved| using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data| obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique| based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs)| that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (B(GS)) with a mean RMSE of 4 days| while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (L(GS)) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover| we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors| while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally| we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude. 9146,2008,2,4,Eutrophication-like response to climate warming: an analysis of Lago Maggiore (N. Italy) zooplankton in contrasting years,Global mean surface temperatures are increasing. All ecosystems are likely to be affected and there is much interest at present in predicting the effects. In freshwater environments| we expect to observe| among other things| effects similar to those observed under eutrophication| such as increases in zooplankton population density and biomass as a result of enhanced population growth rates. Lago Maggiore underwent rapid eutrophication during the 60s and 70s| with a return to oligotrophy during the 80s and the 90s. Thus| it provides a case study to lest the hypothesized eutrophication-like effects of recent climate warming. More specifically| we compare zooplankton biomass and density during the exceptionally warm years of the recent oligotrophic phase with values during the non-warm years of oligotrophy| and during years of the mesotrophic phase. This permits an analysis of zooplankton biomass and density with respect to temperature increase compared with the effects of eutrophication. Zooplankton population density and biomass sharply increased in 2003| the warmest Year of the last century| as a result of Cladocera| particularly Daphnia| attaining values typical of the mesotrophic phase. These values were exceptional compared to typical values and were strongly different from those attained during cooler years since re-oligotrophication. Meat annual values of zooplankton density and biomass recorded in 2003 were fully comparable to typical values during the mesotrophic period. This observation confirms the hypothesis of an overall eutrophication-like effect of climate warming. Seasonal trends| characterized by an earlier start of population growth| arc consistent with the effects of an increase in water temperature| as observed in laboratory experiments on the reproductive and growth strategies of Daphnia. 9104,2008,2,4,Evaluating carbon dynamics and microbial activity in arctic soils under warmer temperatures,A large portion of carbon (C) is stored in the world's soils| including those of peatlands| wetlands and permafrost. However| there is disagreement regarding the effects of climate change on the rate of organic matter decomposition in permafrost soils of the arctic. In this study it was hypothesized that soil exposed to a higher ambient temperature would have a greater flux Of CO2 as well as a change in the metabolic diversity of culturable soil microorganisms. To evaluate this hypothesis we determined soil C dynamics| soil microbial respiration and activity| and C-13 and N-15 fractionation in laboratory incubations (at 14 and 21 degrees C) for an organic-rich soil (Mesic Organic Cryosol) and a mineral soil (Turbic Cryosol) collected at the Daring Lake Research Station in Canada's Northwest Territories. Soil organic C (SOC) and nitrogen (N) stocks (g m(-2)) and concentration (%) were significantly different (P <0.05) between soil horizons for both soil types. Stable isotope analysis showed a significant enrichment in delta C-13 and delta N-15 with depth and a depletion in delta C-13 and delta N-15 with increasing SOC and N concentration. In laboratory incubations| microbial respiration showed three distinct phases of decomposition: a phase with a rapidly increasing rate of respiration (phase 1)| a phase in which respiration reached a peak midway through the incubation (phase 2)| and a phase in the latter part of the incubation in which respiration stabilized at a lower flux than that of the first phase (phase 3). Fluxes Of CO2 were significantly greater at 21 degrees C than at 14 degrees C. The delta C-13 of the evolved CO2 became significantly enriched with time with the greatest enrichment occurring in phase 2 of the incubation. Soil microbial activity| as measured using Biolog Ecoplates(TM)| showed a significantly greater average well color development| richness| and Shannon index at 21 degrees C; again the greatest change occurred in phase 2 of the incubation. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the Biolog data also showed a change in the distinct clustering of the soil microbial activity| showing that C sources from the soil were metabolized differently with time at 21 than at 14 degrees C| and between soil horizons. Our results show that Canadian arctic soils contain large stores of C| which readily decompose| and that substantial increases in CO2 emissions and changes in the metabolic diversity of culturable soil microorganisms may occur when ambient temperatures increase from 14 to 21 degrees C. 8958,2008,2,4,Evaluating the change in orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata L.) production associated with global warming in Northern Hokkaido| Japan: Effect of low water stress resulting from a decrease in soil water,The impact of global warming on changes in dry matter production (DMP) of an orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata L.) located on three soils (coarse| medium and fine textured) in Northern Hokkaido| Japan| was estimated. The influence of low water stress resulting from a decrease in soil water on a change in impact was evaluated through simulations by using a climate change scenario and a previously validated grass growth model (Nakatsuji et al. 2002a). The effect of low water stress on growth during the first grass growing period (early May-early June) because of global warming would not be so intensive that the DMP would be expected to increase (1.2 - 1.4-fold of the present)| except for fine-textured soil in low precipitation. In contrast| for the second grass growing period (mid June-early August)| the effect of low water stress on growth would intensify over the years. An increase in DMP could be hardly expected in the case of low precipitation and finer-textured soil. The changes in DMP during the third grass growing period (mid August-mid September) with global warming and the influence of the amount of precipitation on these changes were negligible. The total DMP from the three cutting periods increased with global warming regardless of the soil texture and the amount of precipitation| although the finer the soil texture| the lower the total weight. However| the maximum ratio of the total DMP in the future to the present because of global warming was approximately 1.2-fold at most. This ratio was smaller than the previously reported value| estimated solely based on weather conditions over 100 years. It can be concluded that when we evaluate the change in grass production associated with global warming| it is important to take into account not only the effect of the increase in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration| but also the effect of the occurrence of low water stress resulting from a decrease in soil water| depending on the amount of precipitation or soil water retention characteristics. 8474,2008,2,3,Evaluating the Consistency between Statistically Downscaled and Global Dynamical Model Climate Change Projections,The consistency between rainfall projections obtained from direct climate model output and statistical downscaling is evaluated. Results are averaged across an area large enough to overcome the difference in spatial scale between these two types of projections and thus make the comparison meaningful. Undertaking the comparison using a suite of state-of-the-art coupled climate models for two forcing scenarios presents a unique opportunity to test whether statistical linkages established between large-scale predictors and local rainfall under current climate remain valid in future climatic conditions. The study focuses on the southwest corner of Western Australia| a region that has experienced recent winter rainfall declines and for which climate models project| with great consistency| further winter rainfall reductions due to global warming. Results show that as a first approximation the magnitude of the modeled rainfall decline in this region is linearly related to the model global warming ( a reduction of about 9% per degree)| thus linking future rainfall declines to future emission paths. Two statistical downscaling techniques are used to investigate the influence of the choice of technique on projection consistency. In addition| one of the techniques was assessed using different large-scale forcings| to investigate the impact of large-scale predictor selection. Downscaled and direct model projections are consistent across the large number of models and two scenarios considered; that is| there is no tendency for either to be biased; and only a small hint that large rainfall declines are reduced in downscaled projections. Among the two techniques| a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model provides greater consistency with climate models than an analog approach. Differences were due to the choice of the optimal combination of predictors. Thus statistically downscaled projections require careful choice of large-scale predictors in order to be consistent with physically based rainfall projections. In particular it was noted that a relative humidity moisture predictor| rather than specific humidity| was needed for downscaled projections to be consistent with direct model output projections. 8478,2008,2,3,Evaluating the links between climate| disease spread| and amphibian declines,Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians| the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa| are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus| Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd)| and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis| which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast| the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bid| independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover| temperature convergence| and predicted temperature-dependent Bid growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location| timing| or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus slop. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal| emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus slop. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust| but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables| including regional banana and beer production| were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally| almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines| more convincing evidence is needed of a causal link. 1232,2008,3,3,Evaluating the prospects for sustainable energy development in a sample of Chinese villages,This paper describes the methods used to evaluate the potential for achieving sustainable energy development in six Chinese villages included in the Sustainable Users' Concepts for China Engaging Scientific Scenarios (SUCCESS) Project by examining energy efficiency potential and local renewable energy prospects. The approaches needed to obtain and analyse information on possible energy efficiency measures and renewable energy resources are summarised. Results are presented in terms of cumulative net savings in primary energy consumption| as an indicator of energy resource depletion| and associated carbon dioxide emissions| as an indicator of global climate change. Options for sustainable energy development are ranked in order of likely implementation and practical actions which could be considered in each village are identified. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9148,2008,2,4,Evaluation of climate change scenarios based on aquatic food web modelling,In the years 2004 and 2005 we collected samples of phytoplankton| zooplankton and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest. We set up a simulation model predicting the abundance of the cyclopoids| Eudiaptomus zachariasi and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature as it affects the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature| but the abundance of the three mentioned groups. This discrete-deterministic model could generate similar patterns like the observed one and testing it on historical data was successful. However| because the model was overpredicting the abundances of Ischnura pumilio and Cyclopoida at the end of the year| these results were not considered. Running the model with the data series of climate change scenarios| we had an opportunity to predict the individual numbers for the period around 2050. If the model is run with the data series of the two scenarios UKIII and UKLO| which predict drastic global warming| then we can observe a decrease in abundance and shift in the date of the maximum abundance occurring (excluding Ischnura pumilio| where the maximum abundance increases and it occurs later)| whereas under unchanged climatic conditions (BASE scenario) the change in abundance is negligible. According to the scenarios GFDL 2535| GFDL 5564 and UKTR| a transition could be noticed. 9175,2008,4,4,Evaluation of emission of greenhouse gases from soils amended with sewage sludge,Increase in concentrations of various greenhouse gases and their possible contributions to the global warming are becoming a serious concern. Anthropogenic activities such as cultivation of flooded rice and application of waste materials| such as sewage sludge which are rich in C and N| as soil amendments could contribute to the increase in emission of greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) into the atmosphere. Therefore| evaluation of flux of various greenhouse gases from soils amended with sewage sludge is essential to quantify their release into the atmosphere. Two soils with contrasting properties (Candler fine sand [CFS] from Florida| and Ogeechee loamy sand [OLS] from Savannah| GA) were amended with varying rates (0| 24.7| 49.4| 98.8| and 148.3 Mg ha(-1)) of 2 types of sewage sludge (industrial [ISS] and domestic [DSS] origin. The amended soil samples were incubated in anaerobic condition at field capacity soil water content in static chamber (Qopak bottles). Gas samples were extracted immediately after amending soils and subsequently on a daily basis to evaluate the emission of CH4| CO2 and N2O. The results showed that emission rates and cumulative emission of all three gases increased with increasing rates of amendments. Cumulative emission of gases during 25-d incubation of soils amended with different types of sewage sludge decreased in the order: CO2 > N2O > CH4. The emission of gases was greater from the soils amended with DSS as compared to that with ISS. This may indicate the presence of either low C and N content or possible harmful chemicals in the ISS. The emission of gases was greater from the CFS as compared to that from the OLS. Furthermore| the results clearly depicted the inhibitory effect of acetylene in both soils by producing more N2O and CH4 emission compared to the soils that did not receive acetylene at the rate of 1 mL g(-1) soil. Enumeration of microbial population by fluorescein diacetate (FDA) and most probable number (MPN) procedure at the end of 25-d incubation demonstrated a clear relationship between microbial activity and the emission of gases. The results of this study emphasize the need to consider the emission of greenhouse gases from soils amended with organic soil amendments such as sewage sludge| especially at high rates| and their potential contribution to global warming. 8990,2008,2,4,Evidence of Raccoon| Procyon lotor| Range Extension in Northern Alberta,The northern limit of Raccoon (Procyon lotor) distribution in northeastern Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan remains unclear. I report an observation of a Raccoon that supports claims that this species has expanded its range well into the bore|it forest of northeastern Alberta. Agriculture| industrial activity| and global warming may be important factors in facilitating Raccoon range expansion in the boreal regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan. 9041,2008,2,4,Evidence of sexual reproduction in the invasive common reed (Phragmites Australis subsp Australis; Poaceae) in eastern Canada: A possible consequence of global warming?,Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Steud. (common reed) is native to North America and has always been a minor component of wetlands. However| this species has undergone a rapid expansion in the northeastern United States and Canada during the last century| to the point of becoming a nuisance in some areas (Mal and Narine 2004). At its northern limit in eastern Canada| it is particularly invasive in canals| waterways| roadside ditches| and wetlands (Hudon et al. 2005; Lavoie et al. 2003). There is increasing evidence that this recent expansion was a consequence of the introduction of a European genotype (haplotype M) in the 19th and 20th century (Lelong et al. 2007; Saltonstall 2002). The invasive European haplotype has been designated as P. australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Steud. subsp. australis| while the native haplotype is now referred to as P. australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Steud. subsp. americanus Saltonstall| P.M. Peterson & Soreng (Saltonstall et al. 2004). Several morphological characteristics such as basal internode color| glume length| and inflorescence morphology have been used to distinguish between the native and introduced subspecies in the field (Catling 2006| 2007).
1163,2008,2,4,Evidence of temperature-dependent effects on the estrogenic response of fish: implications with regard to climate change,Chemical risk assessment is fraught with difficulty due to the problem of accounting for the effects of mixtures. In addition to the uncertainty arising from chemical-to-chemical interactions| it is possible that environmental variables| such as temperature| influence the biological response to chemical challenge| acting as confounding factors in the analysis of mixture effects. Here| we investigate the effects of temperature on the response of fish to a defined mixture of estrogenic chemicals. It was anticipated that the response to the mixture may be exacerbated at higher temperatures| due to an increase in the rate of physiological processing. This is a pertinent issue in view of global climate change. Fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) were exposed to the mixture in parallel exposure studies| which were carried out at different temperatures (20 and 30 degrees C). The estrogenic response was characterised using an established assay| involving the analysis of the egg yolk protein| vitellogenin (VTG). Patterns of VTG gene expression were also analysed using real-time QPCR. The results revealed that there was no effect of temperature on the magnitude of the VTG response after 2 weeks of chemical exposure. However| the analysis of mixture effects at two additional time points (24 h and 7 days) revealed that the response was induced more rapidly at the higher temperature. This trend was apparent from the analysis of effects both at the molecular and biochemical level. Whilst this indicates that climatic effects on water temperature are not a significant issue with regard to the long-term risk assessment of estrogenic chemicals| the relevance of short-term effects is| as yet| unclear. Furthermore| analysis of the patterns of VTG gene expression versus protein induction gives an insight into the physiological mechanisms responsible for temperature-dependent effects on the reproductive phenology of species such as roach. Hence| the data contribute to our understanding of the implications of global climate change for wild fish populations. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8762,2008,5,4,Evolution of paleo sea-surface conditions over the last 600 years in the Mackenzie Trough| Beaufort Sea (Canada),In order to document long-term climate trends and predict future climate change for the Arctic| we need to look at the geological record to establish the link between historical and pre-industrial sea-surface parameters. Dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) are used as proxy indicators of sea-surface parameters (temperature| salinity| sea-ice cover| primary productivity) jointly with transfer functions and a modern dinocyst reference database| to reconstruct the evolution of sea-surface conditions at decadal and multi-decadal timescales. Here we present the fossil dinocyst assemblages established from three sediment cores collected along an inshore-offshore transect in the Mackenzie Trough during the 2004 CASES (Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study) cruise. The chronology of each core was determined using Pb-210 activity and AMS-C-14 measurements in core 912A. Sediment cores 912A| 909B and 906B cover the last 600|200 and 100 years respectively. Palynomorph influxes increase from the bottom to the top of each core| illustrating an increasing productivity over the last similar to 600 years until similar to 1850 AD| when we observe a decrease of productivity until today. We determined a succession of two assemblages over the last similar to 600 years. Assemblage 1| at the base of each core| is mostly composed of dinocysts from heterotrophic taxa. The modern assemblage (Assemblage II at the top of each core) is mostly composed of dinocysts from autotrophic taxa. Quantitative reconstructions of sea-surface parameters reveal a sharp increase in summer (August) temperature (similar to 2 to 5 degrees C) throughout the study area from similar to 1400 AD until similar to 1800-1850 AD| after which the increase (between similar to 0.5 and 1.0 degrees C) is much slower until modern times. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8469,2008,3,4,Examination of the Fate of Carbon in Waste Management Systems through Statistical Entropy and Life Cycle Analysis,The statistical entropy (SE) function has been developed as a methodology to rapidly benchmark the effectiveness of different waste management systems by determining the level to which specific substances are either concentrated or diluted. Past usage of SE has been confined to metals. In this paper| this method is extended to account for carbon-a key substance of interest. Accounting for carbon is complicated by the fact that reactions involving this substance are complex and their products are numerous. Through experiments on carbon-containing emissions from styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR)| natural rubber (polyisoprene| IR)| and waste tires we demonstrate that a knowledge of carbon-containing species accounting for 90% (by mass) of gaseous emissions is sufficient. Next| we develop an extended SE calculation methodology and apply it to compare carbon flows through two different systems for municipal solid waste (MSW) management (landfills) and waste-to-energy (WTE) facilities. Our results indicate that while landfills perform better on a cursory analysis| they are roughly equal to WTE when carbon flows related to energy generation are accounted for| and underperform by a factor of 3 when considering global warming potential. 8884,2008,2,4,Expanding oxygen-minimum zones in the tropical oceans,Oxygen-poor waters occupy large volumes of the intermediate- depth eastern tropical oceans. Oxygen- poor conditions have far- reaching impacts on ecosystems because important mobile macroorganisms avoid or cannot survive in hypoxic zones. Climate models predict declines in oceanic dissolved oxygen produced by global warming. We constructed 50- year time series of dissolved- oxygen concentration for select tropical oceanic regions by augmenting a historical database with recent measurements. These time series reveal vertical expansion of the intermediate- depth low- oxygen zones in the eastern tropical Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific during the past 50 years. The oxygen decrease in the 300- to 700- m layer is 0.09 to 0.34 micromoles per kilogram per year. Reduced oxygen levels may have dramatic consequences for ecosystems and coastal economies. 8849,2008,3,4,Expansion of sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil: Environmental and social challenges,Several geopolitical factors| aggravated by worries of global warming| have been fueling the search for and production of renewable energy worldwide for the past few years. Such demand for renewable energy is likely to benefit the sugarcane ethanol industry in Brazil| not only because sugarcane ethanol has a positive energetic balance and relatively low production costs| but also because Brazilian ethanol has been successfully produced and used as biofuel in the country since the 1970s. However| environmental and social impacts associated with ethanol production in Brazil can become important obstacles to sustainable biofuel production worldwide. Atmospheric pollution from burning of sugarcane for harvesting| degradation of soils and aquatic systems| and the exploitation of cane cutters are among the issues that deserve immediate attention from the Brazilian government and international societies. The expansion of sugarcane crops to the areas presently cultivated for soybeans also represent an environmental threat| because it may increase deforestation pressure from soybean crops in the Amazon region. In this paper| we discuss environmental and social issues linked to the expansion of sugarcane in Brazil for ethanol production| and we provide recommendations to help policy makers and the Brazilian government establish new initiatives to produce a code for ethanol production that is environmentally sustainable and economically fair. Recommendations include proper planning and environmental risk assessments for the expansion of sugarcane to new regions such as Central Brazil| improvement of land use practices to reduce soil erosion and nitrogen pollution| proper protection of streams and riparian ecosystems| banning of sugarcane burning practices| and fair working conditions for sugarcane cutters. We also support the creation of a more constructive approach for international stakeholders and trade organizations to promote sustainable development for biofuel production in developing countries such as Brazil. Finally| we support the inclusion of environmental values in the price of biofuels in order to discourage excessive replacement of natural ecosystems such as forests| wetlands| and pasture by bioenergy crops. 8407,2008,3,4,Experimental and Theoretical Study of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Warming Potential of SO(2)F(2),In this work| potential atmospheric loss processes for SO(2)F(2)| a commercially used biocide (fumigant)| have been studied and its global warming potential calculated. Rate coefficients for the gas-phase reactions OH + SO(2)F(2) -> products| k(1)| and Cl + SO(2)F(2) -> products| k(4)| were determined using a relative rate technique to be k(1) < 1 x 10(-16) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) at 296 and 333 K and k(4)(296 K) < 5 x 10(-17) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). UV absorption cross sections of SO(2)F(2) were measured at 184.9| 193| and 213.9 nm| and its photolysis quantum yield at 193 urn was determined to be <0.02. The atmospheric lifetime of SO(2)F(2) with respect to loss by OH| Cl| and O((1)D) reaction and UV photodissociation is estimated to be >300| >10 000| 700| and >4700 years| respectively. The stratospheric lifetime of SO(2)F(2) is calculated using a two-dimensional model to be 630 years. The global warming potential (GWP) for SO(2)F(2) was calculated to be 4780 for the 100 year time horizon using infrared absorption cross sections measured in this work and a SO(2)F(2) globally averaged atmospheric lifetime of 36 years| which is determined primarily by ocean uptake| reported by Muhle et al. (Muhle| J.; Huang| J.; Weiss| R. F.; Prinn| R. G.; Miller| B. R.; Salameh| P. K.; Harth| C. M.; Fraser| P. J.; Porter| L. W.; Greally| B. R.; O'Doherty| S.; Simonds| P. G. J. Geophys. Res.| submitted for publication| 2008). Reaction channels and the possible formation of stable adducts in reactions 1 and 4 were evaluated using ab initio| CCSD(T)| and density functional theory| B3P86| quantum mechanical electronic Structure calculations. The most likely reaction product channels were found to be highly endothermic| consistent with the upper limits of the rate coefficients measured in this work. 8713,2008,3,2,Experimental study of using fuel cells in dwellings for energy saving lighting and other low power applications,The accompanying CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions have been identified as a primary cause of global warming and the demand for electricity is expected to rise sharply within two decades. New energy-efficient| environmentally friendly power systems are| therefore| urgently required to ensure a sustainable built environment and also to meet the current building regulation standards. Fuel cells provide a means of supplying electricity and improving the built environment. In this paper| two methods of producing home-made hydrogen are described. The performance of low cost proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells in a building trial is evaluated. The PEM fuel cells have been tested to provide electricity for high illuminating light-emitting diode (LED) lamps in a dwelling. It is found that a small quantity of home-produced low-pressure hydrogen could power the LED lamps for several hours. Moreover| by introducing an appropriate electronic circuit| the power consumption by the LED lamp is reduced with an added advantage of increasing the number of light fittings. The results illustrate the energy savings that can be achieved. They also give important pointers to how the technology can be used safely in dwellings in tandem with other energy saving technologies in future. (C) 2008 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8715,2008,3,4,Experimental study on the evaporative heat transfer and pressure drop of CO2 flowing upward in vertical smooth and micro-fin tubes with the diameter of 5 mm,Because of the ozone layer depletion and global warming| new alternative refrigerants are being developed. In this study| evaporation heat transfer characteristic and pressure drop of carbon dioxide flowing upward in vertical smooth and micro-fin tubes were investigated by experiment with regard to evaporating temperature| mass flux and heat flux. The vertical smooth and micro-fin tubes with outer diameter (OD) of 5 mm and length of 1.44 m were selected as a test section to measure the evaporative heat transfer coefficient. The tests were conducted at mass fluxes from 212 to 530 kg/(m(2) s)| saturation temperatures from -5 to 20 degrees C and heat fluxes from 15 to 45 kW/m(2)| where the test section was heated by a direct heating method. The differences of heat transfer characteristics between the smooth and the micro-fin tubes were analyzed with respect to enhancement factor (EF) and penalty factor (PF). Average evaporation heat transfer coefficients for the micro-fin tube were approximately 111-207% higher than those for the smooth tube at the same test conditions| and PF was increased from 106 to 123%. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 8783,2008,5,4,Exploring Holocene continentality changes in Fennoscandia using present and past tree distributions,With global warming| the distribution of warmth through the year is likely to change in the future and comparable changes may have occurred over the course of the Holocene. Its effect on vegetation composition and species distribution can be compared to that of a continental versus an oceanic climate. The distribution of five major tree species along a continentality gradient was studied in Fennoscandia based on distribution maps and on their proportions of pollen in surface-sediment samples. Both analyses indicate that the five arboreal species show similar patterns of response to a continentality index in the order Ulmus glabra| Corylus avellana| Quercus robur| Tilia cordata| and Picea abies from the most oceanic to most continental. Continentality| growing degree days above 5 degrees C| and January temperature were reconstructed quantitatively from four pollen diagrams using transfer functions based on a combined Fennoscandian pollen surface-sample data-set. Quantitative reconstructions indicate that the climate in Fennoscandia has become increasingly more continental over the last 7000 years| and this is largely an effect of winter cooling. Early Holocene vegetation composition has poor analogues to the present vegetation in Fennoscandia| which hampers quantitative reconstructions. Qualitative reconstructions suggest that the early Holocene in Fennoscandia was the most oceanic period| but probably with a high variability in temperature. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1177,2008,2,3,Exploring impacts on environment: of road transportation a spatial approach,This paper presents a comprehensive spatial model for exploring the interaction between road transportation and environment. The potential negative impacts of transportation on environment can be listed as degradation of air quality| greenhouse gas emissions| increased threat of global climate change| degradation of water resources| noise and habitat loss and fragmentation. Within this interaction| of particular importance is the relationship between urban structure and transport emissions| since it is the urban structure that fundamentally determines transportation demand. Due to the spatial nature of the interaction| Spatial Information Sciences (SIS) has many advantages compared with other systems. The developed model integrates data and methods on spatial bases| detects changes| encompasses monitoring and analyzes the interaction. In order to verify the developed concepts| a pilot project was conducted at the southeast part of Istanbul Metropolitan Area| where the development of motorway and its effects to land use categories between 1987 and 2001 period was analyzed. Within the study area| the road transportation network had been doubled| whereas the construction sites were tripled within the years of 1987-2001. A significant decrease was observed at barren and agricultural land classes. Using the suggested model an integrated framework for exploring the interaction was constituted and the results were discussed. 9110,2008,3,3,Exploring the geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulfate aerosols: The role of particle size,Aerosols produced in the lower stratosphere can brighten the planet and counteract some of the effects of global warming. We explore scenarios in which the amount of precursors and the size of the aerosol are varied to assess their interactions with the climate system. Stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes change in response to greenhouse gas forcing and respond to geoengineering by aerosols. Nonlinear feedbacks influence the amount of aerosol required to counteract the warming. More aerosol precursor must be injected than would be needed if stratosphere troposphere exchange processes did not change in response to greenhouse gases or aerosols. Aerosol particle size has an important role in modulating the energy budget. A prediction of aerosol size requires a much more complex representation and assumptions about the delivery mechanism beyond the scope of this study| so we explore the response when particle size is prescribed. More aerosol is required to counteract greenhouse warming if aerosol particles are as large as those seen during volcanic eruptions (compared to the smaller aerosols found in quiescent conditions) because the larger particles are less effective at scattering incoming energy| and trap some outgoing energy. About 1.5 Tg S/yr are found to balance a doubling of CO(2) if the particles are small| while perhaps double that may be needed if the particles reach the size seen following eruptions. 9137,2008,2,4,Extent of recent polewards range margin shifts in Finnish birds depends on their body mass and feeding ecology,Global warming would predict that| all else being equal| species should shift their range a population. A margins polewards| and that a failure to do so could be detrimental for polewards range margin shift has been documented previously in the Finnish avifauna. Here| I showed that the polewards range margin shift of 116 Southern Finnish bird species was larger for small-bodied species and differed according to their feeding ecology| but not to their migration ecology. Species foraging in wet habitats had experienced strong range margin shifts as compared with other feeding ecologies. For 53 species| population trends for 1983-2005 were available. I found no evidence that those feeding ecological groups that showed a relatively small shift in range margin had experienced low population growth or a population decline. Instead| I found some evidence that the long-term trend in population numbers varied across migration ecologies after correcting for changes in their Finnish breeding range. The results suggest that those processes that cause a shift in the range margin of birds are not involved in the recent changes in bird abundances. 8730,2008,2,3,Extinction vulnerability of tropical montane endemism from warming and upslope displacement: a preliminary appraisal for the highest massif in Madagascar,One of the predicted biological responses to climate warming is the upslope displacement of species distributions. In the tropics| because montane assemblages frequently include local endemics that are distributed close to summits| these species may be especially vulnerable to experiencing complete habitat loss from warming. However| there is currently a dearth of information available for tropical regions. Here| we present a preliminary appraisal of this extinction threat using the herpetological assemblage of the Tsaratanana Massif in northern Madagascar (the island's highest massif)| which is rich with montane endemism. We present meteorological evidence (individual and combined regional weather station data and reanalysis forecast data) for recent warming in Madagascar| and show that this trend is consistent with recent climate model simulations. Using standard moist adiabatic lapse rates| these observed meteorological warming trends in northern Madagascar predict upslope species displacement of 17-74 m per decade between 1993 and 2003. Over this same period| we also report preliminary data supporting a trend for upslope distribution movements| based on two surveys we completed at Tsaratanana. For 30 species| representing five families of reptiles and amphibians| we found overall mean shifts in elevational midpoint of 19-51 m upslope (mean lower elevation limit 29-114 m; mean upper elevation limit -8 to 53 m). We also found upslope trends in mean and median elevational observations in seven and six of nine species analysed. Phenological differences between these surveys do not appear to be substantial| but these upslope shifts are consistent with the predictions based on meteorological warming. An elevational range displacement analysis projects complete habitat loss for three species below the 2 degrees C 'dangerous' warming threshold. One of these species is not contracting its distribution| but the other two were not resampled in 2003. A preliminary review of the other massifs in Madagascar indicates potential similar vulnerability to habitat loss and upslope extinction. Consequently| we urgently recommend additional elevational surveys for these and other tropical montane assemblages| which should also include| when possible| the monitoring of local meteorological conditions and habitat change. 1087,2008,2,4,Factors affecting on response of broad bean and corn to air quality and soil CO(2) flux rates in Egypt,In response to worldwide increases in the burning of fossil fuels to meet energy demands for electric power generation and transportation| atmospheric CO(2) concentrations are currently rising at approximately 0.5% per year and ground-level O(3) values are increasing at a rate of 0.32% per year. Some plants showed positive increases in response to elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentrations| but are depressed when exposed to enhanced O(3) air pollution. The objective of this research was to examine relationships between alterations in leaf plant characteristics in response to air quality treatments and soil CO(2) flux activities during the growing season. Field studies were conducted in 2-m diameter x 2-m height open-top chambers (OTC's) at Sharkia Province during 2004 and 2005 involving the growth of broad bean (Vicia faba L. cv. Giza 40) and corn (Zea mays L. cv. 30 K8) in rotations using no-till management while being subjected full-season to five air quality treatments: charcoal-filtered (CF) air; CF + 150 mu L CO2 L(-1); non-filtered (NF) air; NF + 150 mu L CO(2) L(-1) and ambient air (AA). Leaf photosynthesis (P(s))| leaf area index (LAI)| and vegetative carbohydrate contents were determined during pre- and post-anthesis in the two crops and soil CO2 flux rates were monitored monthly during two growing seasons (2004-2005). Multiple and stepwise regression analyses were performed to establish linkages between plant canopy characteristics and soil CO(2) flux rates with results combined over growth stages and year for each crop. Increasing the atmospheric CO(2) concentration typically stimulated leaf P(s)| soluble and total leaf carbohydrate contents| LAI values| and soil CO(2) flux rates throughout the growing season in both crop; however| the elevated O(3) treatments in NF air tended to lower these values compared to CF air. Soil CO(2) flux rates were significantly correlated with LAI| soluble and total sugar contents at P <= 0.01 and with Ps rates at P <= 0.05 in broad bean leaves| but with soluble and total sugar contents of leaves in corns at P <= 0.01 only. Results of this study provided solid evidences linking the impact of changing air quality on plants factors processes and possible indirect effects on soil CO(2) flux activities throughout the growing season. 8827,2008,2,4,Fatal pneumonia epizootic in musk ox (Ovibos moschatus) in a period of extraordinary weather conditions,The musk ox is adapted to extreme cold and regarded as vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Population decline is proposed to occur due to changes in forage availability| insect harassment| parasite load| and habitat availability| while the possible role of infectious diseases has not been emphasized. The goal of the present article is to describe an outbreak of fatal pasteurellosis that occurred in the introduced musk ox population of Dovrefjell| Norway in 2006| causing the death of a large proportion of the animals. The epizootic coincided with extraordinary warm and humid weather| conditions that often are associated with outbreaks of pasteurellosis. The description is based on long series of data from the surveillance of the musk ox population| weather data from a closely located meteorological station| and pathoanatomical investigation of the diseased animals. It is concluded that the weather conditions likely were the decisive factors for the outbreak. It is suggested that such epizootics may occur increasingly among cold-adapted animals if global warming results in increased occurrence of heat waves and associated extreme weather events| thereby causing population declines and possibly extinctions. 8548,2008,3,3,Feasibility study for a carbon capture and storage project in northern Italy,The use of fossil fuels has caused an increase in GHG concentration in the atmosphere| which has a direct effect oil global warming. Among the possible technologies to mitigate GHG emissions| carbon capture and storage (CCS) call be applied to existing| plants and now it is being accepted officially in order to gain emission reduction certificates. This paper presents a feasible Solution for CO| capture and storage network in Italy from Sources that are included in the National Allocation Plan and that are forced to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the second phase of the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. The technical aspects of carbon sequestration are derived from industrial applications| while transportation and storage depend on local and geological characteristics. Since Italy has complex geological characteristics. the selection of the most convenient sites should include hydrocarbon reservoirs that are Currently used or are depleted. To select these sites| all oil wells that are located in the Italian territory and are managed by UNMIG (National Mining Office for Hydrocarbons and Geothermy) were considered| and a short list was selected among those that have safety and lasting characteristics to ensure a long time permanence. The position of the selected storage sites is drawn on It GIS map containing all the plants included in the National Allocation Plan to be able to identify the optimal networks for carbon dioxide transportation. The case study is located in an area that includes Milan| Pavia and Lodi districts. Knowing the amount of CO| produced by plants in the selected zone| it is possible to determine the tons of CO2 to capture and the size of transportation and storage systems. Pipelines are| in this case| the most appropriate transport technologies. From emission and sequestration points to storage sites it is necessary to build 122 kill pipelines for 8 MtCO(2)| capacity. Using this CCS grid it is possible to avoid CO| emission with economic feasibility close to the cost of carbon trading values. In fact| the market cost of a European Union Allowance (EUA) at the start of the first period of application of Directive 2003/87/CE was about 30 is an element of/tCO(2). Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 8526,2008,2,4,Field observations of recent transgression on northern and eastern Melville Island| western Canadian Arctic Archipelago,After similar to 11|000 years of glacio-isostatically induced forced regression| geomorphological evidence indicates that the coastline of eastern Melville Island| western Canadian Arctic Archipelago| is now being transgressed. Recently developed coastal features associated with this transgression include: drowned gullies and small estuaries| barriers and lagoons| barrier islands| erosional notches| backstepping beaches| and drowned tundra vegetation and vehicle tracks dating from the 1970s. We mainly attribute this relative sea-level rise to the eastward migration of a peripheral crustal forebulge. Furthermore| the reported transgression also includes a component from recent eustatic sea-level rise during the 20th century. Recent earthquakes recorded in the Gustav-Lougheed Arch Seismic Zone located in Byam Martin Channel| 70 km east of Melville Island| suggest that neotectonics could also be involved in local relative sea-level adjustments. Other factors associated with global warming| especially the formation of an earlier shore-ice lead coupled with increased storm activity might also be responsible for some of the coastal changes. Our study indicates that the current zero isobase| separating areas of net transgression from those of net regression| is now located off the east coast of the island. Our field observations support recent glacio-isostatic modelling that shows the island is presently undergoing a transgression. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1083,2008,2,4,Fine-root respiration in a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) forest exposed to elevated CO(2) and N fertilization,Forest ecosystems release large amounts of carbon to the atmosphere from fine-root respiration (R(r))| but the control of this flux and its temperature sensitivity (Q(10)) are poorly understood. We attempted to: (1) identify the factors limiting this flux using additions of glucose and an electron transport uncoupler (carbonyl cyanide m-chlorophenylhydrazone); and (2) improve yearly estimates of R(r) by directly measuring its Q(10)in situ using temperature-controlled cuvettes buried around intact| attached roots. The proximal limits of R(r) of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) trees exposed to free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) and N fertilization were seasonally variable; enzyme capacity limited R(r) in the winter| and a combination of substrate supply and adenylate availability limited R(r) in summer months. The limiting factors of R(r) were not affected by elevated CO(2) or N fertilization. Elevated CO(2) increased annual stand-level R(r) by 34% whereas the combination of elevated CO(2) and N fertilization reduced R(r) by 40%. Measurements of in situ R(r) with high temporal resolution detected diel patterns that were correlated with canopy photosynthesis with a lag of 1 d or less as measured by eddy covariance| indicating a dynamic link between canopy photosynthesis and root respiration. These results suggest that R(r) is coupled to daily canopy photosynthesis and increases with carbon allocation below ground. 1066,2008,4,3,Fire risk in Amazonia due to climate change in the HadCM3 climate model: Potential interactions with deforestation,Deforestation in Amazonia seems likely to continue in the 21st century| and fire risk could increase as a result of global climate change. With deforestation activities providing a source of ignition| the combination of this with increased fire risk could lead to widespread impacts on Amazonian ecosystems. This would also contribute further to climate change through feedbacks on the global carbon cycle. This study uses the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index and an ensemble of variants of the HadCM3 climate model to simulate potential changes to fire risk in Amazonia over the 21st century. Significant increases in central and eastern Amazonia are simulated by 2020| and high fire danger for over 50% of the forest is simulated in all model runs by 2080. By 2080| as much as 25% of Amazonia shows high levels of agreement in projections of combined fire risk and deforestation. The areas simulated with high fire danger are also those projected to be impacted most significantly by deforestation. If the regional climate changes simulated for Amazonia by HadCM3 are realistic| the risk of significant forest damage could become high| and deforestation activities could| therefore| have a greater potential for impacting on wider areas of forest. 1133,2008,2,4,First arrival dates of the Nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos) to Central Croatia in the early 20(th) century and at the turn of the 21(st) century,Global climate change has important impacts on animal life-cycles. One of the responses to global warming is an earlier arrival time of many migratory bird species. The first arrival date of the Nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos) in Central Croatia was studied for the periods of 1901-1917 and 1991-2005. Data were derived from the first spring observations and first capture data. A statistically significant advance of 11 +/- 1.4 days was recorded. The difference in the mean April temperature between two study periods was significant| while changes in NAO winter index were not significant. Adequate data from the beginning of the 20th century exist; however| recent studies were done on a relatively short-term basis. Therefore| the analysis of two discrete datasets may help to fill the gaps in the knowledge about the climate change response. 1189,2008,2,4,First record of diamondback moth (Lepidoptera : Plutellidae) from interior Alaska,The diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella [L.])| is one of the most economically important pests of cruciferous plants throughout the world| causing economically significant damage in broccoli| cabbage| canola| collards| and mustard. In Canada| P. xylostella is an important economic pest of canola (Brassica napus L. and Brassica rapa L.). In North America| the diamondback moth has been collected as far north as Edmonton| Alberta| Canada. Despite its wide distribution and presence at economically damaging levels in Canada| there have been no published reports of P. xylostella from Alaska. This note documents the 1st collection of this pest species in interior Alaska. With continued moderation of the climate due to global climate change| this species has the potential to become an increasingly important agricultural pest in the state. 9223,2008,2,4,Flower morphology| phenology and visitor patterns in an alpine community on Mt Olympos| Greece,Alpine vegetation| restricted to the top of high Mountains| is among the vegetation types most endangered by global warming| currently predicted to raise temperatures from 1.1 to 6.4 degrees C| by the end of the century. Nevertheless| background information allowing evaluation of impacts is rather scarce for some geographic zones. Our study of an alpine community on the Plateau of Muses (2600-2750 m a.s.l.) of Mt Olympos| the highest mountain of Greece| conducted in 1993-1994| can provide such background information for the Mediterranean region. We studied features relating to phenology of flowering| floral morphology| distribution and abundance| and flower visitors of plant species that exhibit a biotic pollination syndrome. We identified dominant patterns and we further (i) explored the relative contribution of the plant features and abiotic factors studied in explaining the activity patterns of flower visitors| (ii) examined if flower and visitor traits of the alpine community match each other according to the classical pollination syndromes| and (iii) investigated whether the responses of individual plant species to the yearly climatic variability result into phenological patterns that characterize the whole community. The common strategy of the alpine community was for early flowering and long flower life span; consistently early flowering species were twice as many as late flowering ones| whereas floral longevity (estimated for 36 species) averaged 5.2 days. Duration of flowering (estimated for 57 species) averaged 18.2 days. Climatic variability affected onset of flowering; all late flowering species delayed their flowering during the year characterized by a humid and cold summer. Duration of flowering and floral longevity did not change in a consistent way. Hymenoptera (Aculeates) were the dominant flower visitors. They accounted for 43.3% of the visits recorded| with bumblebees making a little less than half. Diptera followed making 37.5% of the visits (most made by syrphid flies). There was a mismatch between flower-morphology and flower visitor traits; the alpine community had predominantly non-specialized| pale-colour flowers| which are traits assumed to correspond to Diptera dominance and absence of social bees. Visitation was influenced by flower abundance and duration of flowering; proportionately more Diptera| and proportionately less Hymenoptera visited species with short flowering periods and few flowers present in the field. In a number of cases| the phenological and flower visitor patterns of the community of Mt Olympos deviated from those observed in other alpine environments suggesting a mediterranean influence even at high altitudes. (c) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 1128,2008,2,4,Flowering patterns in a seasonal tropical lowland forest in western Amazonia,The phenological behavior of many tropical plant species is highly dependent on rainfall| but these plants may also respond to changes in photoperiod. Without a better knowledge of the proportion of species responding to different factors| it is difficult to predict how global climate change may affect natural ecosystem processes. The aim of this study was to describe flowering patterns for more than 100 species in Tinigua Park| Colombia| and to propose which factors may trigger flower production (e.g.| rainfall| temperature| cloud cover| and photoperiod). Data gathered in 5.6 km of phenological transects during 4 yr and complementary information indicated that the vast majority of species showed intraspecific synchronization| and annual production was the most common pattern| followed by episodic frequency. The annual patterns were common in tree species| while episodic patterns were common in lianas. Simple and multiple regression analyses suggested several aspects of photoperiod as the most likely triggers for flowering in most species. However| the fact that many of these species produce flowers in different periods each year| suggests that the proportion of species responding to photoperiodic cues is less that 23 percent in this community. The flowering times of taxonomically related species seldom showed significantly staggered distributions; however they do not necessarily occur at the same time| suggesting that flowering patterns are not strongly constrained by phylogeny. 9229,2008,2,3,Flowering phenology in a species-rich temperate grassland is sensitive to warming but not elevated CO(2),Flowering is a critical stage in plant life cycles| and changes might alter processes at the species| community and ecosystem levels. Therefore| likely flowering-time responses to global change drivers are needed for predictions of global change impacts on natural and managed ecosystems. Here| the impact of elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentration ([CO(2)]) (550 mu mol mol(-1)) and warming (+2 degrees C) is reported on flowering times in a native| species-rich| temperate grassland in Tasmania| Australia in both 2004 and 2005. Elevated [CO(2)] did not affect average time of first flowering in either year| only affecting three out of 23 species. Warming reduced time to first flowering by an average of 19.1 d in 2004| acting on most species| but did not significantly alter flowering time in 2005| which might be related to the timing of rainfall. Elevated [CO(2)] and warming treatments did not interact on flowering time. These results show elevated [CO(2)] did not alter average flowering time or duration in this grassland; neither did it alter the response to warming. Therefore| flowering phenology appears insensitive to increasing [CO(2)] in this ecosystem| although the response to warming varies between years but can be strong. 9225,2008,3,4,Fluxes of CH4 and N2O from soil under a tropical seasonal rain forest in Xishuangbanna| Southwest China,CH4 and N2O fluxes from soil under a tropical seasonal rain forest in Xishuangbanna| Southwest China were measured for one year using closed static chamber technique and gas chromatography method. Three treatments were set in the studied field: (A) litter-free| (B) with litter| and (C) with litter and seedling. The results showed that the soil in our study was a sink of atmospheric CH4 and source of atmospheric N2O. The observed mean CH4 fluxes from treatments A| B| and C were -50.0 +/- 4.0| -35.9 +/- 2.8| -31.6 +/- 2.8 mu gC/(m(2).h)| respectively| and calculated annual fluxes in 2003 were -4.1| -3.1| and -2.9 kgC/hm(2)| respectively. The observed mean N2O fluxes from treatments A| B| and C were 30.9 +/- 3.1| 28.2 +/- 3.5| 50.2 +/- 3.7 mu gN/(m(2).h)| respectively| and calculated annual fluxes in 2003 were 2.8| 2.6| and 3.7 kgN/hm(2)| respectively. Seasonal variations in CH4 and N2O fluxes were significant among all the three treatments. The presence of litter decreased CH4 uptake during wet season (P < 0.05)| but not during dry season. There was a similar increase in seedlings-mediated N2O emissions during wet and dry seasons| indicating that seedlings increased N2O emission in both seasons. A strong positive relationship existed between CH4 fluxes and soil moisture for all the three treatments| and weak relationship between CH4 fluxes and soil temperature for treatment B and treatment C. The N2O fluxes correlated with soil temperature for all the three treatments. 8906,2008,2,4,Fluxes of dissolved organic matter in larch forests in the cryolithozone of central Siberia,Fluxes of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in larch biogeocenoses and its export from the drainage basin have been studied in the zone of continuous permafrost. A comparative assessment of DOM input into the soil has been made on slopes of northern and southern exposures (as variants reflecting the current state and warming). The dynamics of DOM export in a creek depending on the increasing depth of the active soil horizon in the drainage area have been revealed. It is concluded that an increase in the depth of the seasonally thawing layer induced by global warming will not have any significant effect on the amount of annual DOM export. Reduction of DOM export may be expected upon a decrease in litter stocks under the effect of their mineralization and forest fires. 8408,2008,2,4,Foliar morphological variation in the white oak Quercus rugosa Nee (Fagaceae) along a latitudinal gradient in Mexico: Potential implications for management and conservation,Quercus rugosa Nee (section Quercus) has a distribution from the southern United States to Honduras. This study characterized leaf variation across the whole distribution of the species in Mexico. Ten foliar morphometric characters were scored in each of 241 individuals from 25 localities. A principal component analysis resolved four principal components (PCs) that explained 76.4% of the total variation. A nested analysis of variance revealed significant differences among populations (29.2% average contribution to total variance for the four PCs) and among-trees within populations (39.2%)| while 31.6% was due to intra-individual variation. For the first PC (related to leaf size)| 52.1% resulted from among population differences. This variation was negatively correlated with latitude (r = -0.86; P < 0.0001)| indicating a steep clinal reduction in leaf size from south to north. Mean annual precipitation and an annual aridity index also significantly decreased and increased with latitude| respectively. It is suggested that the morphological cline is the result of plastic and/or adaptive responses to environmental conditions| and indicative of further ecophysiological latitudinal differences among Q| rugosa populations. Additionally| we estimated the magnitude of the least significant difference among populations for the first PC and translated it into a delineation of six latitudinal zones (each with a width of 2 degrees 30')| to be considered as preliminary zones for the movement of Q rugosa seeds with management and conservation purposes| including management in response to global warming. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8967,2008,2,4,Forest pathogens with higher damage potential due to climate change in Europe,Most atmospheric scientists agree that climate changes are going to increase the mean temperature in Europe with increased frequency of climatic extremes| such as drought| floods. and storms. Under Such conditions. there is high probability that forests will be Subject to increased frequency and intensity of stress due to climatic extremes. Therefore. impacts of climate change On forest health Should be carefully evaluated. Given these assumptions| several fungal diseases on trees may become more devastating because of the following factors: (i) abiotic Stresses. Such as drought and flooding| are known to predispose trees to several pathogens (ii) temperature and Moisture affect pathogen sporulation and dispersal. and changes in climatic conditions are likely to favour certain pathogens; (iii) migration of pathogens triggered by climatic change may increase disease incidence or geographical range| when pathogens encounter new hosts and (or) new potential vectors and (iv) new threats may appear either because of it change in tree species composition or because of invasive species. If infection success is dependent on temperature| higher mean temperatures may lead to more attacks. Pathogens that have been of importance in southern Europe may spread northward and also upward to mountains. Pathogens with evolutionary potential for greater damage Should be identified to estimate magnitude of the threat and to prepare for the changing conditions. A review of the above-mentioned cases is presented. Some priorities to improve the ability to predict impacts of climate change on tree diseases are discussed. 8913,2008,3,3,Forestry-based carbon sequestration projects in Africa: Potential benefits and challenges,Carbon sequestration through forestry and agroforestry can help mitigate global warming. For Africa| carbon sequestration also represents an opportunity to fund sustainable development through financial inflows. However| with a low share of global carbon trade| there are strong concerns that African countries are losing out on this valuable opportunity. Through a comprehensive review of 23 carbon sequestration projects across 14 countries| this paper discusses ways to overcome critical challenges to scale up carbon investments in Africa. These projects are expected to sequester 26.85 million tCO(2) beyond the baseline situation. Within the continent| East Africa is the preferred destination for carbon investors. Most projects are non-Kyoto compliant and represent voluntary emission reductions. While project benefits such as increased local incomes and improved natural resources are promising| there are concerns that conversion of grasslands into tree plantations can harm local ecosystems. Insecure land tenure constrains new investments and increases the risk that local communities will lose access to forests. Another challenge is that projects with smallholders have high transaction costs. These costs can be overcome by building strong community institutions and simplifying project guidelines. To attract more projects| African governments will need to build their capacity to identify relevant opportunities. 8670,2008,3,4,Fossil fuel saving through a direct solar energy water heating system,The global warming and energy crisis is motivating the search for sustainable power sources. The objective of this work is to analyze the economic return and quantify the reduction in the emission of pollutants| when low-cost solar collectors are used as a partial substitute for a boiler that uses fuel oil as the energy source| in order to heat water for the swimming pools of the Physical Education Center| Federal University of Santa Maria. The collectors are made from PVC and other easily acquired materials. The estimations for energy saving are based on a collecting area of 182 m(2). From knowledge of the collectors' efficiency| the mathematical demonstration shows a fuel oil saving of 13|174 kg| representing 24% of the total amount consumed per annum. The investment required for the construction and installation of the collectors is US$ 6|445 and the estimated useful live is five years. The internal rate of return is 30%. The emission of pollutants is reduced by a considerable amount of 41|213 kg CO2 equivalent/year. The use of direct sun energy as an alternative power source represents a significant economic interest as well as contributing to the mitigation of greenhouse gases. 8554,2008,2,4,Frequency of severe storms and global warming,We use five years of data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) to develop a correlation between the frequency of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC) and the zonal mean tropical surface temperature. AIRS data show that the frequency of DCC in the tropical oceans is very temperature sensitive| increasing 45% per 1 K increase of the zonal mean surface temperature. The combination of the sensitivity of the DCC frequency to temperature indicates that the frequency of DCC| and as a consequence the frequency of severe storms| increases at the rate of 6%/decade with the current +0.13 K/decade rate of global warming. This result is only qualitatively consistent with state-of-the-art climate models| where the frequency of the most intense rain events increases with global warming. 9019,2008,4,4,From atmosphere| to climate| to Earth system science,In the current context of climatic changes| climate science is becoming increasingly a focus of attention for large portions of society. At the same time| our basic understanding of climate processes is evolving very rapidly| following tremendous advances in Earth observation as well as in computing power. Still| the very notion of 'climate' appears not all that well defined| the physical contours of a 'climatic system' are often rather dependent on the given scientific question| and there is little obviously in common between - for example - researchers studying the climatic conditions experienced by the dinosaurs| those attempting to use satellite information to better quantify the present-day climate| and those who use the largest computers available to predict possible dire consequences of current global warming. But appearances are sometimes misleading. Indeed| climatology is in its essence highly interdisciplinary| and it has numerous firm connections with many other scientific disciplines in the physical| natural and human sciences. But first of all| it is necessary to discuss what is hidden behind the word 'climate'. In particular| in order to move from a phenomenological towards a more physically-based view| a key question is to draw the contours of a climate system. In this respect| it is interesting to note that climate modellers are now increasingly defining their object in terms of an 'Earth system' instead of a 'climate system'. I go on to present some recent progress in climate sciences over the last few decades. In particular| based on recent paleoclimatological discoveries| the climate appears now as a very dynamic system| with its own internal variations. The finding that past climate has changed 'spontaneously' and very abruptly| on a decadal timescale| has profoundly changed our vision of climate dynamics. Finally| I outline some possible future directions for climate sciences: 'Earth system science' is an emerging discipline that has the ambition to describe| in the same mathematical framework| the past and the future evolution of our planet. 9098,2008,2,4,Frost in a future climate: modelling interactive effects of warmer temperatures and rising atmospheric [CO(2)] on the incidence and severity of frost damage in a temperate evergreen (Eucalyptus pauciflora),Although plants are more susceptible to frost damage under elevated atmospheric [CO(2)]| the importance of frost damage under future| warmer climate scenarios is unknown. Accordingly| we used a model to examine the incidence and severity of frost damage to snow gum (Eucalyptus pauciflora) in a sub-alpine region of Australia for current and future conditions using the A2 IPCC elevated CO(2) and climate change scenario. An existing model for predicting frost effects on E. pauciflora seedlings was adapted to include effects of elevated [CO(2)] on acclimation to freezing temperatures| calibrated with field data| and applied to a study region in Victoria using climate scenario data from CSIRO's Global Climate Model C-CAM for current (1975-2004) and future (2035-2064) 30 years climate sequences. Temperatures below 0 degrees C were predicted to occur less frequently while the coldest temperatures (i.e. those below -8 degrees C) were almost as common in the future as in the current climate. Both elevated [CO(2)] and climate warming affected the timing and rates of acclimation and de-acclimation of snow gum to freezing temperatures| potentially reducing the length of time that plants are fully frost tolerant and increasing the length of the growing season. Despite fewer days when temperatures fall below 0 degrees C in the future| with consequently fewer damaging frosts with lower average levels of impact| individual weather sequences resulting in widespread plant mortality may still occur. Furthermore| delayed acclimation due to either warming or rising [CO(2)] combined with an early severe frost could lead to more frost damage and higher mortality than would occur in current conditions. Effects of elevated [CO(2)] on frost damage were greater in autumn| while warming had more effect in spring. Thus| frost damage will continue to be a management issue for plantation and forest management in regions where frosts persist. 8903,2008,3,4,Fuelling the car of the future,Whether you worry about man-made global warming due to the burning of fossil fuels| or not| you have to face up to the fact that the supply of crude oil that we convert to petrol and diesel is finite| and the time when it will no longer be possible to match supply with demand is not so far away. Projections vary| but even the most optimistic do not predict much more than 20 years. For this reason we need to start looking very seriously at ways we can fuel our vehicles in a post-crude-oil future. Hydrogen is a popular option| but is it a realistic one? Don't the Brazilians run their cars on alcohol? Is that a strategy we could apply world wide? And what about battery powered vehicles? Is that just for golf carts? The answer| as it turns out| is not to go for a single option| rather we will have to employ a combination of some of these technologies to keep us on the road. (c) 2008 Journal of Mechanical Engineering. All rights reserved. 8729,2008,3,3,Fundamental insulation characteristics of high-pressure CO(2) gas for gas-insulated power equipment - Effect of coating conductor on insulation performance and effect of decomposition products on creeping insulation of spacer,Currently| environmental problems such as global warming are important issues| and SF(6) has been identified as a greenhouse gas with a long atmospheric lifetime. Therefore| in the long term| it is preferable to reduce the amount of SF6 used as an insulating gas. It is thus important to discuss the possibility of using more environmentally friendly gases as alternative insulation for gas-insulated apparatus. In this paper| we describe the fundamental insulation breakdown characteristics of high-pressure CO(2) gas at gas pressures of up to 1.0 MPa under simulated practical conditions| including the insulation breakdown characteristics of a high-voltage conductor with an insulating coating and the effect of decomposition products on the creeping insulation of a spacer. With the aim of enhancing insulation performance| we discuss the effect of the type of insulating coating on insulation performance. The breakdown electric field was increased by 20% by coating the conductor. It was verified that the application of an insulating coating is a practical method for enhancing the insulation performance of high-pressure CO(2) gas. It was also verified that the decomposition products have only a slight effect on the creeping insulation of the spacer except for when there is heavy pollution on the insulating spacer. However| if a large amount of decomposition products is expected to be deposited on the insulating spacer during operation| which may cause a severe interruption to the current| it will be necessary to consider this factor in the insulation design. 1185,2008,2,2,Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change,Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface| protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being| but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here| we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change| thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk| measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected| is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value| but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast| most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value| but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change| our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended 'north-south' transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate change. 9181,2008,2,4,Future Changes in the Baiu Rain Band Projected by a 20-km Mesh Global Atmospheric Model: Sea Surface Temperature Dependence,Global warming projection experiments were conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model (the 20-km model)| focusing on the change in the rain band of the East Asian summer monsoon (the Baiu rain band in Japan). To quantify the dependence of the projected change on the sea surface temperature (SST) prescribed to the 20-km model| we have taken different SSTs given by the two Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM)s of MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and MIROC(hires). In the future climate simulations| the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario was assumed. The future climate simulations show that precipitation and its intensity increase over the Yangtze River valley of China and Western Japan. The termination of the Baiu season tends to be delayed until August. These changes were consistently found in the simulations regardless of different SSTs. 9129,2008,3,3,Future fuel supply systems for organic production based on Fischer-Tropsch diesel and dimethyl ether from on-farm-grown biomass,The effects of making a 1000 ha organic farm self-sufficient in renewable fuel were studied. Biomass grown on-farm can be transported to large fuel production facilities and the fuel transported back to the farm. Two fuels| Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD) and dimethyl ether (I)ME)| produced from either straw or short-rotation willow coppice (Salix)| were studied. The environmental impact| land use and energy balance were calculated using life-cycle methodology. It was calculated that the straw-based systems had only 32-39% of the impact on global warming (kg [CO2-eq]) compared to the Salix-based systems. For acidification and eutrophication| the differences between the systems were less significant. The energy balances were 8.9 and 9.6 for FTD and 10.1 and 10.0 for DME| from straw and Salix| respectively. To become self-sufficient in FTD| 108 ha has to be set aside for Salix production or 261 ha of straw collected from the existing crop rotation. For DME the corresponding figures are 38 and 70 ha. The many by-products in the FTD scenarios explain the large difference between fuels. Comparing FTD and DME| the differences in environmental impact were small. Considering this| FTD is a more likely alternative since DME requires a pressurised infrastructure system and engine modifications. (c) 2007 IAgrE. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8651,2008,2,2,Future trends of climatic belts and seasons in China,In this study| the present and future climate under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario of CO(2) emission are simulated by using the Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System (RIEMS). The simulated climatic belts| climatic seasons| and Yellow River ice phenology in China are compared between the present climate during 1975-1984 and the future climate during 2035-2044. The long-term trends of the regional climate are also estimated. Compared to 1975-1984| most of the climatic belts in China will shift northward in 2035-2044| by a maximum of 1.5-2 degrees of latitude. The southern boundary of the Northern Sub-tropical Belt (NSB) will shift northward significantly| in spite of the little change in its northern boundary. The entire Southern Sub-tropical Belt (SSB) and the Middle Sub-tropical Belt (MSB)| as well as the northern boundary of the Warm Extra-tropical Belt (WEB)| will also shift northward by 1-2 degrees of latitude. The starting dates of spring and summer will mostly advance| opposite to the delays in the starting dates of autumn and winter. As a whole| the summer in China will grow longer by 26.1 days| while spring| autumn| and winter will become shorter by 6.8| 7.9| and 11.4 days| respectively. In the upper reach of the Yellow River (URYR)| the date for enduring sub-zero temperatures will be delayed by 8 days and the date for enduring above-zero temperatures will advance by 5 days. In the lower reach of the river| the date for enduring sub-zero temperatures will be delayed by 4 days and the date for enduring above-zero temperatures will advance by 4 days. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society. 8543,2008,3,4,Gaseous fluxes in the nitrogen and carbon budgets of subsurface flow constructed wetlands,In 2001 and 2002| fluxes of N2O| CH4| CO2 and N-2 were measured in two constructed wetlands (CW) for domestic wastewater treatment in Estonia. The difference between the median values of N2O| CH4| and N-2 fluxes in the horizontal subsurface flow (HSSF) CWs was nonsignificant| being 1.3-1.4 and 1.4-4.1 mg m(-2) d(-1) for N2O-N and CH4-C| and 0.16-0.17 g N m(-2) d(-1) for N-2-N respectively. The CO2-C flux was significantly lower (0.6 g C m(-2) d(-1)) in one of the HSSF filters of a hybrid CW| whereas the single HSSF and VSSF filters emitted 1.7 and 2.0 g C m(-2) d(-1). The median value of CH4-C emission in CWs varied from 1.4 to 42.6 g C m(-2) d(-1)| being significantly higher in the VSSF filter beds. We also estimated C and N budgets in one of the HSSF CWs (312.5 m(2)) for 2001 and 2002. The total C input into this system was similar in 2001 and 2002| 772 and 719 kg C year(-1)| but was differently distributed between constituent fluxes. In 2001| the main input flux was soil and microbial accumulation (663 kg C year(-1) or 85.8% of total C input)| followed by plant net primary production (NPP) (10.2%) and wastewater inflow (3.9%). In 2002| 55.7% of annual C input was bound in plant NPP| whereas the increase in soil C formed 28.5% and wastewater inflow 15.7%. The main C output flux was soil respiration| including microbial respiration from soil and litter| and the respiration of roots and rhizomes. It formed 120 (97.5%) and 230 kg C year(-1) (98.2%) in 2001 and 2002 respectively. The measured CH4-C flux remained below 0.1% of total C output. The HSSF CW was generally found to be a strong C sink| and its annual C sequestration was 649 and 484 kg C year(-1) per wetland in 2001 and 2002 respectively. However| negative soil and microbial accumulation values in recent years indicate decreasing C sequestration. The average annual N removal from the system was 38-59 kg N year(-1) (46-48% of the initial total N loading). The most important flux of the N budget was N-2-N emission (22.7 kg in 2001 and 15.2 kg in 2002)| followed by plant belowground assimilation (2.3 and 11.9 kg N year(-1) in 2001 and 2002)| and above-ground assimilation (1.9 and 9.2 kg N year(-1)| respectively). N2O emission was low: 0.37-0.60 kg N year(-1) (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9127,2008,3,2,Genes for greens,With increasing concerns about changing climatic conditions of the world| studies show that the introduction of genetically modified crops is likely to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases that lead to global warming. Farming largely contributes to global warming due to the use of chemical pesticides and fertilizers like nitrogen. While only a small amount of the nitrogen used escapes into the atmosphere as nitrous oxide| it is a potent greenhouse gas. Biotechnologists claim that the introduction of drought-resistant| salt-resistant and pest-resistant varieties of crops is likely to reduce the usage of fertilizers. However| arguments against this claim that the introduction of such resistant species is likely to open up the environment to other dangers like weeds that overwhelm estuaries and also conditions that affect arid environments. 8659,2008,2,4,Genetic differentiation| hybridization and adaptive divergence in two subspecies of the acorn barnacle Tetraclita japonica in the northwestern Pacific,Two acorn barnacles| Tetraclita japonica japonica and Tetraclita japonica formosana| have been recently reclassified as two subspecies| because they are morphologically similar and genetically indistinguishable in mitochondrial DNA sequences. The two barnacles are distinguishable by parietes colour and exhibit parapatric distributions| coexisting in Japan| where T. j. formosana is very low in abundance. Here we investigated the genetic differentiation between the subspecies using 209 polymorphic amplified fragment length polymorphism markers and 341 individuals from 12 locations. The subspecies are genetically highly differentiated (Phi(CT) = 0.267). Bayesian analysis and principal component analysis indicate the presence of hybrids in T. j. formosana samples from Japan. Strong differentiation between the northern and southern populations of T. j. japonica was revealed| and a break between Taiwan and Okinawa was also found in T. j. formosana. The differentiation between the two taxa at individual loci does not deviate from neutral expectation| suggesting that the oceanographic pattern which restricts larval dispersal is a more important factor than divergent selection in maintaining genetic and phenotypic differentiation. The T. j. formosana in Japan are probably recent migrants from Okinawa| and their presence in Japan may represent a poleward range shift driven by global warming. This promotes hybridization and might lead to a breakdown of the boundary between the subspecies. However| both local adaptation and larval dispersal are crucial in determining the population structure within each subspecies. Our study provides new insights into the interplay of local adaptation and dispersal in determining the distribution and genetic structure of intertidal biota and the biogeography of the northwestern Pacific. 9235,2008,2,4,Genetic response to rapid climate change: it's seasonal timing that matters,The primary nonbiological result of recent rapid climate change is warming winter temperatures| particularly at northern latitudes| leading to longer growing seasons and new seasonal exigencies and opportunities. Biological responses reflect selection due to the earlier arrival of spring| the later arrival of fall| or the increasing length of the growing season. Animals from rotifers to rodents use the high reliability of day length to time the seasonal transitions in their life histories that are crucial to fitness in temperate and polar environments: when to begin developing in the spring| when to reproduce| when to enter dormancy or when to migrate| thereby exploiting favourable temperatures and avoiding unfavourable temperatures. In documented cases of evolutionary (genetic) response to recent| rapid climate change| the role of day length (photoperiodism) ranges from causal to inhibitory; in no case has there been demonstrated a genetic shift in thermal optima or thermal tolerance. More effort should be made to explore the role of photoperiodism in genetic responses to climate change and to rule out the role of photoperiod in the timing of seasonal life histories before thermal adaptation is assumed to be the major evolutionary response to climate change. 1164,2008,2,4,Geographic variation in onset of singing among populations of two migratory birds,Even though singing plays a major role in bird communication| environmental variables affecting the geographic patterns observed in the variation of singing onset within large areas have not previously been studied. The singing phenology of two long-distance migrants| the Cuckoo Cuculus canorus and the Nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos| recorded in thousands of sites throughout Spain| was related to a set of 51 explanatory variables by partial least squares regression. Observed variability in singing onset among localities follows spatial trends on an Iberian scale at 10 x 10 km resolution| and was well modelled by some environmental variables. Of these variables| climate was the most influential. Males of both species sang earlier in wanner and drier sites. Males who were near the Straits of Gibraltar and in the southern Iberian basins| which are geographic gradients closely related with climate in the Iberian Peninsula| were also heard earlier. Most environmental variables affected the singing activity of both species equally| i.e.| the same environmental gradients are linked to singing onset. However| the models' predictions indicated differences in the geographical pattern in singing onset between both species| mainly related to their rates of progression during spring migration through Spain. Local variables| such as land uses| vegetation productivity or species abundance| played a minor role on singing onset spatial patterns. Therefore| models' composition supports the hypothesis that singing onset is a good proxy of arrival dates in migratory species| since those variables related to indirect effects on singing onset phenology through migratory progression and arrival to the breeding grounds showed the highest influence. (c) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved. 8755,2008,2,3,Geographical distribution of the feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle,We examined climate-carbon cycle feedback by performing a global warming experiment using MIROC-based coupled climate-carbon cycle model. The model showed that by the end of the 21st century| warming leads to a further increase in carbon dioxide (CO(2)) level of 123 ppm by volume (ppmv). This positive feedback can mostly be attributed to land-based soil-carbon dynamics. On a regional scale| Siberia experienced intense positive feedback| because the acceleration of microbial respiration due to warming causes a decrease in the soil carbon level. Amazonia also had positive feedback resulting from accelerated microbial respiration. On the other hand| some regions| such as western and central North America and South Australia| experienced negative feedback| because enhanced litterfall surpassed the increased respiration in soil carbon. The oceanic contribution to the feedback was much weaker than the land contribution on global scale| but the positive feedback in the northern North Atlantic was as strong as those in Amazonia and Siberia in our model. In the northern North Atlantic| the weakening of winter mixing caused a reduction of CO(2) absorption at the surface. Moreover| weakening of the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water caused reduced CO(2) subduction to the deep water. Understanding such regional-scale differences may help to explain disparities in coupled climate-carbon cycle model results. 8567,2008,2,4,Geographical variation in climatic cues for mast seeding of Fagus crenata,Geographical variation in climatic cues for masting of Fagus crenata Blume| which is the most dominant tree species in Japanese temperate forests| was investigated in the northern part of Japan| i.e.| the Tohoku district of Honshu Island and the Oshima Peninsula of Hokkaido Island. The data obtained after an 18-year assessment (1989-2006) of 163 stands| covering an area of ca. 200 x 500 km(2) area| were used in this study. In all stands| mast seeding occurred three times (1995| 2000 and 2005) during the study period and the coefficient of annual variation (CV) in seedfall density was 0.94. Based on cluster analysis| the stands were classified into each of the seven groups| in which the seedfall density was temporally synchronized among the stands and showed higher values of CV (1.04-1.79). These groups were distributed spatially exclusively at the scale of 80-200 km. By selecting the tree model based on AIC values| lower temperature in spring| higher temperature in summer and seedfall density in a year were proved to have a decisive influence on the seedfall density in the subsequent year. The effects of the first two climatic cues overwhelm that of the seedfall density. Lower temperature in spring served as a cue mostly for the population in the Oshima Peninsula| while higher temperature in summer served as a cue for the populations in the Tohoku district. If this suggests a genetic variation in relation to cues| climatic changes (e.g.| global warming) will have different impacts on seed production of different F. crenata populations. However| it remains to be tested in future studies whether multiple climatic cues simply reflect regionally variable climatic conditions or not. 8467,2008,5,4,Gigantism in unique biogenic magnetite at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,We report the discovery of exceptionally large biogenic magnetite crystals in clay-rich sediments spanning the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) in a borehole at Ancora| NJ. Aside from previously described abundant bacterial magnetofossils| electron microscopy reveals novel spearhead-like and spindle-like magnetite up to 4 mu m long and hexaoctahedral prisms up to 1.4 mu m long. Similar to magnetite produced by magnetotactic bacteria| these single-crystal particles exhibit chemical composition| lattice perfection| and oxygen isotopes consistent with an aquatic origin. Electron holography indicates single-domain magnetization despite their large crystal size. We suggest that the development of a thick suboxic zone with high iron bioavailability-a product of dramatic changes in weathering and sedimentation patterns driven by severe global warming-drove diversification of magnetite-forming organisms| likely including eukaryotes. 9253,2008,2,3,GIS-aided Animal Production Impacts Analysis on the Environment in Laguna Province,Livestock production is a possible approach to alleviate poverty especially for the rural poor. However| while the sector gains intensity| problems attendant to it such as soil and water pollution| animal health and diseases| nutrient loading and contribution to global warming also increased. Failure to address these problems will create greater harm on people's health and the environment. This study commissioned by FAO| aims to provide an objective assessment of environmental animal health and production in Laguna| Philippines| in both qualitative and quantitative terms| as a baseline for future temporal and spatial comparisons. Using Geo-Information System as a tool with secondary data collection and survey as means to collect the input data| overlay maps were created. The use of animal unit density of livestock and poultry farms was also developed to determine the hotspot areas in terms of production| health and diseases| nutrient loading and contribution to global warming. As a result| the study was able to (1) map distribution| quantities| and densities| (2) identify trends and patterns| and (3) delineate hotspots| which aided significantly in studying livestock and environment interaction in Laguna Province. 8640,2008,2,3,Glacial Inceptions: Past and Future,The realistic simulation of northern hemisphere glacial inceptions| which occurred during the Quaternary period| has challenged scores of climate theoreticians and modellers. After reviewing the Milankovitch theroy of glaciation| a number of earlier modelling studies of the last glacial inception (LGI) which have employed either high-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) or Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) are descirbed. The latter class of models has been developed over the past two decades in order to investigate the many interactions and feedbacks among the geophysical and biospheric components of the Earth system that take place over long time scales. Following a description of the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) and other EMICs| some recent McGill simulations of the LGI in response to orbital (Milankovitch) and radiative (atmospheric CO2) forcings are presented. Special attention is given to determining the relative roles of the ocean's thermohaline circulation| freshwater fluxes into the ocean| orography| cryospheric processes and vegetation dynamics during the inception phase. In particular| it is shown that with the vegetation-albedo feedback included in the model| the buildup of ice sheets over North America is larger than over Eurasia| in agreement with observations. This paper concludes with a discussion on the (possible) occurrence of the next glacial period. To address this issue| which has been inspired by recent publications of berger and Loutre| MPM simulations of the climate for the next 100kyr| forced by various prescribed atmospheric CO2 levels| as well as the future insolation changes as calculated by the Berger algorithm| are presented. the influence of a near-term global warming scenario on glacial inception is also examined. If it is assumed that after such a warming scenario the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere returns to pre-industrial levels (in the range of 280-290 ppm)| then the MPM predicts that the next glacial would start at around 50 kyr after present| which is consistent with the results of Berger and Loutre. Finally| recent simulations of future glacial inceptions using the Potsdam EMIC which includes an atmosphere-ocean carbon cycle component are described. From one of these simulations in which 5000 G1C are released into the atmosphere due to human activities| it is concluded that the current interglacial will last for at least another half-million years because of the limited ability of the oceans to absorb such a large carbon release to the atmosphere. 8718,2008,2,4,Global change: impact| mangement| risk approach and health measures - the case of Europe,Global changes| including an increase in trade and global warming| which act on the environment| are likely to impact on the evolution of pathogens and hence of diseases. To anticipate the risks created by this new situation| a French group of experts has developed a method for prioritising animal health risks. This is a two-phase method: the first step is to identify the diseases whose incidence or geographical distribution could be affected by the changes taking place| and the second step is to evaluate the risk of each of these diseases. As a result of this process| six priority diseases were selected: bluetongue| Rift Valley fever| West Nile fever| visceral leishmaniasis| leptospirosis and African horse sickness. The main recommendations were: to develop epidemiological surveillance| to increase knowledge of epidemiological cycles| to develop research into these diseases and to pool cross-border efforts to control them. 1220,2008,2,3,Global climate change - a feasibility perspective of its effect on human health at a local scale,There are two responses to global climate change. First| mitigation| which actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester or store carbon in the short-term| and make development choices that will lead to low emissions in the long-term. Second| adaptation| which involves adjustments in natural or human systems and behaviours that reduce the risks posed by climate change to people's lives and livelihoods. While the two are conceptually distinct| in practice they are Very much interdependent| and both are equally urgent from I healthy population perspective. To define the policies to mitigate and to adapt to global climate change| data and information at all scales are the basic requirement for both developed and developing countries. However| as compared to mitigation| adaptation is all immediate concern for low-income Countries and for small islands states| where the reduction Of the emissions from greenhouse gases is not among their priorities. Adaptation is also highly location specific and the required ground data to assess the impacts of climate change on human health are not available. Climate data at high spatial resolution can be derived by various downscaling methods using historical and real-time meteorological observations but| particularly in low-income countries| the outputs are limited by the lack of ground data at the local level. In many of these countries| a negative trend ill the number of meteorological stations as compared as to before 2000 is evident| while remotely-sensed imagery becomes more and more available at high spatial and temporal resolution. The final consequence is that climate change policy options in the developing world are greatly jeopardized. 1292,2008,2,4,Global climate change and regional impact on the water balance - Case study in the German alpine area,A quantification and possible effects of climate change on the water cycle for a German alpine and pre-alpine region have been performed using regional climate simulations. It showed out that temperature rises around 3 degrees C until the end of this century with a maximum in the mountainous area. Mean precipitation only slightly increases. The intensities of hourly precipitation events increase dramatically which involve more intense small scale flash flood events. Daily precipitation sums also rise in future times which causes mainly large scale flooding events. For the summer months June to August| a 30 % reduction of precipitation was simulated. In combination with increasing temperatures| the total amount of usable water is expected to reduce. The risk of droughts also increases due to longer lasting and more intense dry periods. 8473,2008,4,4,Global Decadal Upper-Ocean Heat Content as Viewed in Nine Analyses,This paper examines nine analyses of global ocean 0-/700-m temperature and heat content during the 43-yr period of warming| 1960-2002. Among the analyses are two that are independent of any numerical model| six that rely on sequential data assimilation| including an ocean general circulation model| and one that uses four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR)| including an ocean general circulation model and its adjoint. Most analyses show gradual warming of the global ocean with an ensemble trend of 0.77 x 10(8) J m(-2) (10 yr)(-1) (=0.24 W m(-2)) as the result of rapid warming in the early 1970s and again beginning around 1990. One proposed explanation for these variations is the effect of volcanic eruptions in 1963 and 1982. Examination of this hypothesis suggests that while there is an oceanic signal| it is insufficient to explain the observed heat content variations. A second potential cause of decadal variations in global heat content is the uncorrelated contribution of heat content variations in individual ocean basins. The subtropical North Atlantic is warming at twice the global average| with accelerated warming in the 1960s and again beginning in the late 1980s and extending through the end of the record. The Barents Sea region of the Arctic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico have also warmed| while the western subpolar North Atlantic has cooled. Heat content variability in the North Pacific differs significantly from the North Atlantic. There the spatial and temporal patterns are consistent with the decadal variability previously identified through observational and modeling studies examining SST and surface winds. In the Southern Hemisphere large heat content anomalies are evident| and while there is substantial disagreement among analyses on average the band of latitudes at 30 degrees- 60 degrees S contribute significantly to the global warming trend. Thus| the uncorrelated contributions of heat content variations in the individual basins are a major contributor to global heat content variations. A third potential contributor to global heat content variations is the effect of time-dependent bias in the set of historical observations. This last possibility is examined by comparing the analyses to the unbiased salinity-temperature-depth dataset and finding a very substantial warm bias in all analyses in the 1970s relative to the latter decades. This warm bias may well explain the rapid increase in analysis heat content in the early 1970s| but not the more recent increase| which began in the early 1990s. Finally| this study provides information about the similarities and differences between analyses that are independent of a model and those that use sequential assimilation and 4DVAR. The comparisons provide considerable encouragement for the use of the sequential analyses for climate research despite the presence of erroneous variability (also present in the no-model analyses) resulting from instrument bias. The strengths and weaknesses of each analysis need to be considered for a given application. 8761,2008,2,4,GLOBAL DIMMING - AN ENVIRONMENTAL HYPOTHESIS ON CLIMATE CHANGE,The paper approaches studies of projections of future climate change that use a hierarchy of coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice/land-surface models to provide indicators of global response as well as possible regional patterns of climate change. It is evidenced that| after the global warming| a new phenomenon that occurs in the terrestrial atmosphere has drawn the attention of the scientific community. It is called global dimming - the decrease of the solar beams capacity (infrared| visible| ultraviolet) to reach the earth surface| with the effect of cooling the surface| masking the effects of global warming over the general climate. 8931,2008,3,3,Global farm animal production and global warming: Impacting and mitigating climate change,BACKGROUND: The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land| contributing to many environmental problems| including global warming and climate change. OBJECTTVES: The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. METHODS: We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions| as well as various mitigation strategies. DISCUSSIONS: An analysis of meat| egg| and milk production encompasses not only the direct rearing and slaughtering of animals| but also grain and fertilizer production for animal feed| waste storage and disposal| water use| and energy expenditures on farms and in transporting feed and finished animal products| among other key impacts of the production process as a whole. CONCLUSIONS: Immediate and far-reaching changes in current animal agriculture practices and consumption patterns are both critical and timely if GHGs from the farm animal sector are to be mitigated. 8701,2008,2,4,Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate,Simulated daily discharge derived front a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general Circulation model was used to investigate Future projections of extremes in river discharge Under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions| except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally| while regions such as northern high latitudes| eastern Australia| and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation| heavy precipitation| or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days| but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation. 1332,2008,3,3,Global response patterns of terrestrial plant species to nitrogen addition,Better understanding of the responses of terrestrial plant species under global nitrogen (N) enrichment is critical for projection of changes in structure| functioning| and service of terrestrial ecosystems. Here| a meta-analysis of data from 304 studies was carried out to reveal the general response patterns of terrestrial plant species to the addition of N. Across 456 terrestrial plant species included in the analysis| biomass and N concentration were increased by 53.6 and 28.5%| respectively| under N enrichment. However| the N responses were dependent upon plant functional types| with significantly greater biomass increases in herbaceous than in woody species. Stimulation of plant biomass by the addition of N was enhanced when other resources were improved. In addition| the N responses of terrestrial plants decreased with increasing latitude and increased with annual precipitation. Dependence of the N responses of terrestrial plants on biological realms| functional types| tissues| other resources| and climatic factors revealed in this study can help to explain changes in species composition| diversity| community structure and ecosystem functioning under global N enrichment. These findings are critical in improving model simulation and projection of terrestrial carbon sequestration and its feedbacks to global climate change| especially when progressive N limitation is taken into consideration. 8475,2008,3,3,Global temperature stabilization via controlled albedo enhancement of low-level maritime clouds,An assessment is made herein of the proposal that controlled global cooling sufficient to balance global warming resulting from increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentrations might be achieved by seeding low-level| extensive maritime clouds with seawater particles that act as cloud condensation nuclei| thereby activating new droplets and increasing cloud albedo (and possibly longevity). This paper focuses on scientific and meteorological aspects of the scheme. Associated technological issues are addressed in a companion paper. Analytical calculations| cloud modelling and (particularly) GCM computations suggest that| if outstanding questions are satisfactorily resolved| the controllable| globally averaged negative forcing resulting from deployment of this scheme might be sufficient to balance the positive forcing associated with a doubling of CO2 concentration. This statement is supported quantitatively by recent observational evidence from three disparate sources. We conclude that this technique could thus be adequate to hold the Earth's temperature constant for many decades. More work - especially assessments of possible meteorological and climatological rami. cations - is required on several components of the scheme| which possesses the advantages that (i) it is ecologically benign - the only raw materials being wind and seawater| (ii) the degree of cooling could be controlled| and (iii) if unforeseen adverse effects occur| the system could be immediately switched off| with the forcing returning to normal within a few days (although the response would take a much longer time). 9081,2008,2,4,Global warming and amphibian extinctions in eastern Australia,Pounds et al. recently argued that the dramatic| fungal pathogen-linked extinctions of numerous harlequin frogs (Atelopus spp.) in upland rainforests of South America mostly occurred immediately following exceptionally warm years| implicating global warming as a likely trigger for these extinctions. I tested this hypothesis using temperature data for eastern Australia| where at least 14 upland-rainforest frog species have also experienced extinctions or striking population declines attributed to the same fungal pathogen| and where temperatures have also risen significantly in recent decades. My analyses provide little direct support for the warm-year hypothesis of Pounds et al.| although my statistical power to detect effects of small (0.5 degrees C) temperature increases was limited. However| I found stronger support for a modified version of the warm-year hypothesis| whereby frog declines were likely to occur following three consecutive years of unusually warm weather. This trend was apparent only at tropical latitudes| where rising minimum temperatures were greatest. Although much remains uncertain| my findings appear consistent with the notion that global warming could predispose some upland amphibian populations to virulent pathogens. 1271,2008,2,4,Global warming and flowering times in Thoreau's concord: A community perspective,As a result of climate change| many plants are now flowering measurably earlier than they did in the past. However| some species' flowering times have changed much more than others. Data at the community level can clarify the variation in flowering responses to climate change. In order to determine how North American species' flowering times respond to climate| we analyzed a series of previously unstudied records of the dates of first flowering for over 500 plant taxa in Concord| Massachusetts| USA. These records began with six years of observations by the famous naturalist Henry David Thoreau from 1852 to 1858| continued with 16 years of observations by the botanist Alfred Hosmer in 1878 and 1888 - 1902| and concluded with our own observations in 2004| 2005| and 2006. From 1852 through 2006| Concord warmed by 2.4 degrees C due to global climate change and urbanization. Using a subset of 43 common species| we determined that plants are now flowering seven days earlier on average than they did in Thoreau's times. Plant flowering times were most correlated with mean temperatures in the one or two months just before flowering and were also correlated with January temperatures. Summer-flowering species showed more interannual variation in flowering time than did spring-flowering species| but the flowering times of spring-flowering species correlated more strongly to mean monthly temperatures. In many cases| such as within the genera Betula and Solidago| closely related| co-occurring species responded to climate very differently from one another. The differences in flowering responses to warming could affect relationships in plant communities as warming continues. Common St. John's wort (Hypericum perforatum) and highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) are particularly responsive to changes in climate| are common across much of the United States| and could serve as indicators of biological responses to climate change. We discuss the need for researchers to be aware| when using data sets involving multiple observers| of how varying methodologies| sample sizes| and sampling intensities affect the results. Finally| we emphasize the importance of using historical observations| like those of Thoreau and Hosmer| as sources of long-term data and to increase public awareness of biological responses to climate change. 8964,2008,3,4,Global warming and renewable energy sources for sustainable development in Turkey,Turkey| with its young population and growing energy demand per person| its fast growing urbanization| and its economic development| has been one of the fast growing power markets of the world for the last two decades. It is expected that the demand for electric energy in Turkey will be 300 billion kWh by the year 20 10 and 580 billion kWh by the year 2020. Turkey is heavily dependent on expensive imported energy resources that place a big burden on the economy and air pollution is becoming a great environmental concern in the country. In this regard| renewable energy resources appear to be the one of the most efficient and effective solutions for clean and sustainable energy development in Turkey. Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of most of these renewable energy sources. This article presents a review of the potential and utilization of the renewable energy sources in Turkey. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9114,2008,2,4,Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes,A secular warming of sea surface temperature occurs almost everywhere over the global ocean. Here we use observational data to show that global warming of the sea surface is associated with a secular increase of tropospheric vertical wind shear in the main development region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. The increased wind shear coincides with a weak but robust downward trend in U. S. landfalling hurricanes| a reliable measure of hurricanes over the long term. Warmings over the tropical oceans compete with one another| with the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans increasing wind shear and the tropical North Atlantic decreasing wind shear. Warmings in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans win the competition and produce increased wind shear which reduces U. S. landfalling hurricanes. Whether future global warming increases the vertical wind shear in the MDR for Atlantic hurricanes will depend on the relative role induced by secular warmings over the tropical oceans. 8655,2008,3,4,Global warming potential of wheat production in Western Australia: a life cycle assessment,This study presents a greenhouse gas (GHG) life cycle assessment of 1 tonne of wheat transported to port in south-western Australia| including emissions from prefarm| onfarm and postfarm stages. The prefarm stage included GHG emissions from agricultural machinery| fertiliser and pesticide production. The onfarm stage included GHG emissions from diesel use| liming and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from N fertiliser applications. The postfarm stage included grain storage and transportation to the port. GHG emissions decreased from 487 to 304 kg carbon dioxide (CO(2)) equivalents when we used regional-specific data for N(2)O emissions instead of the IPCC default value for the application of synthetic N fertilisers to land (1.0%). Fertiliser production in the prefarm stage contributed significantly (35%) to GHG| followed by onfarm CO(2) emissions (27%) and emissions from transportation of inputs and wheat (12%). N(2)O emissions from paddock represented 9% of the total GHGs emitted. We recommend utilising regionally specific data for soil N(2)O emissions| rather than international default values| when assessing GHG for agricultural production systems. 9040,2008,4,3,Global warming potential predictions for hydrofluoroethers with two carbon atoms,Global warming potentials are predicted using computational chemistry and thermodynamics approaches for four hydrofluoroethers where no data have previously been available. We also compare results with the same methodology for six other species. We combine predictions of radiative forcing values from density functional theory computations at the B3LYP/6-31g* level of theory with previous experimentally determined or newly estimated hydroxyl radical-hydrogen abstraction rate constants to obtain these global warming potentials. We find that many of the HFEs studied have lower global warming potentials than the hydrofluorocarbons and chlorofluorocarbons they may soon replace| although other environmental and technical issues may need to be addressed first. 9053,2008,3,3,Global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers,Global warming potentials are estimated for hydrofluoroethers| which are an emerging class of compounds for industrial use. Comparisons are made to the limited data previously available before observations about molecular design are discussed. We quantify how molecular structure can be manipulated to reduce environmental impacts due to global warming. We further highlight the need for additional research on this class of compounds so environmental performance can be assessed for green design. 8576,2008,2,4,Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management,It has been conjectured that global warming will increase the prevalence of insect pests in many agro-ecosystems. In this paper| we quantitatively assess four of the key pests of maize| one of the most important systems in North American grain production. Using empirically generated estimates of pest overwintering thresholds and degree-day requirements| along with climate change projections from a high-resolution climate model| we project potential future ranges for each of these pests in the United States. Our analysis suggests the possibility of increased winter survival and greater degree-day accumulations for each of the pests surveyed. We find that relaxed cold limitation could expand the range of all four pest taxa| including a substantial range expansion in the case of corn earworm (H. zea)| a migratory| cold-intolerant pest. Because the corn earworm is a cosmopolitan pest that has shown resistance to insecticides| our results suggest that this expansion could also threaten other crops| including those in high-value areas of the western United States. Because managing significant additional pressure from this suite of established pests would require additional pest management inputs| the projected decreases in cold limitation and increases in heat accumulation have the potential to significantly alter the pest management landscape for North American maize production. Further| these range expansions could have substantial economic impacts through increased seed and insecticide costs| decreased yields| and the downstream effects of changes in crop yield variability. 8438,2008,2,2,Global Warming Projections Using the Community Climate System Model| CCSM3,This paper provides an outline of the global warming projections made using the atmosphere-ocean coupled model CCSM3. Results show that even if the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere is stabilized| the temperature and sea level will continue to rise over the next few hundred years| and that hysteresis effects appear in sea level changes depending on the pathway of the concentration in future. It will become increasingly important that| in our future activities| we fully consider adaptations to climate change in addition to attempting to mitigate the global warming (through emissions reduction). 8546,2008,2,4,Global warming| elevational range shifts| and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics,Many studies suggest that global warming is driving species ranges poleward and toward higher elevations at temperate latitudes| but evidence for range shifts is scarce for the tropics| where the shallow latitudinal temperature gradient makes upslope shifts more likely than poleward shifts. Based on new data for plants and insects on an elevational transect in Costa Rica| we assess the potential for lowland biotic attrition| range-shift gaps| and mountaintop extinctions under projected warming. We conclude that tropical lowland biotas may face a level of net lowland biotic attrition without parallel at higher latitudes (where range shifts may be compensated for by species from lower latitudes) and that a high proportion of tropical species soon faces gaps between current and projected elevational ranges. 9126,2008,2,4,Global warming| rice production| and water use in China: Developing a probabilistic assessment,Uncertainties in global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios affect assessments of the impact of global warming as well as the communication of scientific results. Here| we developed a probabilistic technique to deal with the uncertainties and to simulate the impact of global warming on rice production and water use in China| against a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961-1990 values. From 20 climate scenarios output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre| we used Monte Carlo analysis to develop the most likely climate-change scenarios for representative stations and derived the CERES-Rice model of [Alocilja| E.C.| Ritchie| R.T.| 1988. Rice simulation and its use in multicriteria optimization| IBSNAT Research Report Series 01] to simulate rice production under baseline and future climate scenarios. Adaptation options such as automatic application of irrigation and fertilization were considered| although cultivars were assumed constant over the baseline and future. After assessing representative stations across China| we projected changes in rice yield| growing period| evapotranspiration| and irrigation-water use for GMT changes of 1| 2| and 3 degrees C in a probabilistic way. Without consideration of CO2-fertilization effects| our results indicate that the growing period would shorten with 100% probability; yield would decrease with a probability of 90%| 100%| and 100% for GMT change of 1| 2| and 3 degrees C| respectively. The median values of yield decrease ranged from 6.1% to 18.6%|13.5% to 31.9%| and 23.6% to 40.2% for GMT changes of 1| 2| and 3 degrees C| respectively. According to the median values of the projected changes| evapotranspiration and irrigation water use would decrease in most of the investigated stations. If CO2-fertilization effects were included| the rice growing period would also be reduced with 100% probability; across the stations the median values of yield changes ranged from -10.1% to 3.3%| -16.1% to 2.5%| and -19.3% to 0.18% for GMT changes of 1| 2| and 3 degrees C| respectively. Evapotranspiration and irrigation water use would decrease more and with higher probability in comparison with the simulations without consideration of CO2-fertilization effects. Our study presents a process-based probabilistic assessment of rice production and water use at different GMT increases| which is important for identifying which climate-change level is dangerous for food security. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8511,2008,3,3,Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agro-Ecosystems and Their Contribution to Environmental Change in the Indus Basin of Pakistan,There is growing concern that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been responsible for global warming through their effect on radiation balance and temperature. The magnitude of emissions and the relative importance of different sources vary widely| regionally and locally. The Indus Basin of Pakistan is the food basket| of the country and agricultural activities are vulnerable to the effects of global warming due to accelerated emissions of GHGs. Many developments have taken place in the agricultural sector of Pakistan in recent decades in the background of the changing role of the government and the encouragement of the private sector for investment. in new ventures. These interventions have considerable GHG emission potential. Unfortunately| no published information is currently available on GHG concentrations in the Indus Basin to assess their magnitude and emission trends. The present study is an attempt to estimate GHG (CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O) emissions arising from different agro-ecosystems of Indus Basin. The GHGs were estimated mostly using the IPCC Guidelines and data from the published literature. The results showed that CH(4) emissions were the highest (4.1.26 Tg yr(-1)) followed by N(2)O (0.265 Tg yr(-1)) and CO(2) (52.6 Tg yr(-1)). The Sources of CH(4) are enteric fermentation| rice cultivation and cultivation of other crops. N(2)O is formed by microbial denitrification of NO(3) produced from applied fertilizer-N on cropped soils or by mineralization of native organic matter on fallow soils. CO(2) is formed by the burning of plant residue and by soil respiration due to the decomposition of soil organic matter. 8961,2008,3,4,Greenhouse gas emissions trading among Pacific Rim countries: An analysis of policies to bring developing countries to the bargaining table,This paper examines the aggregate net costs and individual country cost savings of greenhouse gas emissions trading among Pacific Rim countries. We propose emission permit allocation rules designed to entice developing countries to participate. Absence of developing country involvement has served as an excuse for the lack by participation by the United States in the first compliance period of the Kyoto Protocol and may serve as a disincentive to even more countries in subsequent periods. Our analysis specifies permit allocation rules that could result in no net costs| and even cost-savings| to developing countries for their involvement in the emissions trading market| while at the same time providing extensive benefits to industrialized countries through access to lower-cost mitigation alternatives. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8907,2008,3,3,Greenhouse gas fluxes from an irrigated sweet corn (Zea mays L.)-potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) rotation,Intensive agriculture and increased N fertilizer use have contributed to elevated emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO)| methane (CH)| and nitrous oxide (N2O). In this study| the exchange of CO2 NO2 and CH4 between a Quincy fine sand (mixed| mesic Xeric Torripsamments) soil and atmosphere was measured in a sweet corn (Zea mays L.)-sweet corn-potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) rotation during the 2005 and 2006 growing seasons under irrigation in eastern Washington. Gas samples were collected using static chambers installed in the second-year sweet corn and potato plots under conventional tillage or reduced tillage. Total emissions of CO2-C from sweet corn integrated over the season were 2071 and 1684 kg CO2-C ha(-1) for the 2005 and 2006 growing seasons| respectively. For the same period| CO2 emissions from potato plots were 1571 and 1256 kg of CO2-C ha(-1). Cumulative CO2 fluxes from sweet corn and potato fields were 17 and 13 times higher| respectively| than adjacent non-irrigated| native shrub steppe vegetation (NV). Nitrous oxide losses accounted for 0.5% (0.55 kg N ha(-1)) of the applied fertilizer (112 kg N ha(-1)) in corn and 0.3% (0.59 kg N ha(-1)) of the 224 kg N ha(-1) applied fertilizer. Sweet corn and potato plots| on average| absorbed 1.7 g CH4-C ha(-1) d(-1) and 2.3 g CH4-C ha(-1) d(-1)| respectively. The global warming potential contributions from NV| corn| and potato fields were 459| 7843| and 6028 kg CO2-equivalents ha(-1)| respectively| for the 2005 growing season and were 14% lower in 2006. 9204,2008,3,2,Greenhouse gases emission from energy production in conventional biogas plants In india,This article deals with the evaluation of the atmospheric CH4 and CO2 emission from the widely accepted conventional biogas plants operating in India. CH4 and CO2 are the two major constituents of biogas and also the two important greenhouse gases causing the present global warming. Average CH4 and CO2 emission per plant from the floating gasholder model biogas plants ranged between 73 +/- 8.92 and 742 +/- 81.53 g d(-1) and 159 +/- 17.31 and 1476 +/- 152.63 g d(-1)| respectively. Emissions from the fixed dome biogas plants ranged between 93 +/- 20.63 and 288 +/- 46.53 g d(-1) CH4 and 196 +/- 40.90 and 598 +/- 93.70 g d(-1) CO2. The current contribution of greenhouse gases from the installed biogas plants in India toward the annual atmospheric CH4 and CO2 budget is estimated to be approximately 0.143 and 0.306 Tg| respectively. 8798,2008,3,4,Greenhouse gases emissions from waste management practices using Life Cycle Inventory model,When exploring the correlation between municipal solid waste management and green house gas emission| the volume and physical composition of the waste matter must be taken into account. Due to differences in local environments and lifestyles the quantity and composition of waste often vary. This leads to differences in waste treatment methods and causes different volumes of greenhouse gases (GHGs)| highlighting the need for local research. In this study the Life Cycle Inventory method was used with global warming indicator GHGs as the variables. By quantifying the data and adopting a region-based approach| this created a model of household MSWM in Taipei City| a metropolitan region in Taiwan. To allow analysis and comparison a compensatory system was then added to expand the system boundary. The results of the analysis indicated that out of all the solid waste management sub-models for a function unit| recycling was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions while using kitchen food waste as swine feeding resulted in the most GHG emissions. As for the impact of waste collection vehicles on emissions| if the efficiency of transportation could be improved and energy consumption reduced| this will help solid waste management to achieve its goal of reducing GHG emissions. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 8569,2008,4,4,Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) Ground Systems,The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) is an independent administrative agency responsible for the development and utilization of space and R&D in the aviation field. The mission of JAXA's Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) is to obtain basic data on global warming by monitoring greenhouse gases| and its launching is scheduled during fiscal 2008. Fujitsu's operational know-how accumulated over many years of building onboard satellite systems and satellite ground systems| and its software development technologies and computer hardware have been applied in GOSAT ground systems. This paper examines general satellite ground systems| the ground systems for GOSAT| as well as the systems| computers and middleware for which Fujitsu is responsible. The paper also describes the ground systems for determining orbits and planning observation in particular detail| given Fujitsu's major contribution to such systems. 8689,2008,2,4,Growth and survival of Prosopis africana provenances tested in Niger and related to rainfall gradients in the West African Sahel,Prosopis africana (Guill.| Perrott. and Rich.) Taub. is important for farming and pastoralist communities in the West African Sahel. It provides a range of essential products (wood| fuel| food| fodder and medicines) and services (soil fertility improvement)| and is one of many native tree species maintained in the traditional agroforesty system| known as the parkland. However| this and other valuable species are disappearing in many parts of the region due to over-exploitation and| perhaps| due to increasingly drier conditions in the region. A provenance/progeny test (275 families from 28 provenances in Burkina Faso and Niger) was established at one location in Niger to investigate geographic variation in the species. Mean annual rainfall decreases from south to north and from west to east in the seed collection area. Given these gradients| one would expect clinal variation in growth and survival of P. africana and other tree species that occur naturally in the region. Tree growth (height| number of primary branches| stem diameter at 20 cm and 1.3 m) and survival were analyzed at 11 years. Variation due to provenances was significant for growth variables and almost significant for survival. Variation due to families within provenances was not significant for any variable. Provenance means for growth and survival increased from the more humid to the drier parts of the sample region. The clines in growth and survival with regional rainfall patterns suggest that tree improvement and conservation programs should collect seeds from populations in the drier zones for planting and conservation in the West African Sahel. This may be particularly important when one considers the trend in global warming. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8892,2008,2,4,Growth modelling indicates hurricanes and severe storms are linked to low coral recruitment in the Caribbean,This study set out to test the hypothesis that hurricanes and tropical storms limit the recruitment and subsequent survival of massive non-branching corals on the barrier reef off the coast of Belize in the Gulf of Honduras. Overall| the surface areas of 523 individual coral specimens were measured| and recruitment dates were then modelled. There was no significant difference in coral cover or coral biodiversity between any of the sites studied (p > 0.1). There were significant differences in non-branching coral recruitment in years when hurricanes impacted the area (p < 0.05) compared with years when no hurricanes impacted the area. There were significantly more non-branching massive corals recruited in non-hurricane years (mean 7.7) than in hurricane years (mean 3.8; p = 0.011). When years with tropical storms are added to the years with hurricanes| there was significantly lower coral recruitment (mean 4.7) relative to non-storm or hurricane years (mean 7.4; p = 0.019). These results show that hurricanes and severe storms limited the recruitment and survival of massive non-branching corals of the Mesoamerican barrier reef and on patch reefs near the Belize coast in the Caribbean| and suggests that marine park managers may need to assist coral recruitment in years where there are hurricanes or severe storms. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1157,2008,3,4,Growth-Oriented Logging (GOL): A new concept towards sustainable forest management in Central Amazonian varzea floodplains,Against a background of increasing human populations in developing countries| and global climate change| conservation of tropical forests remains one of the most important ecological challenges of our time. One of the biggest difficulties for ecologically sustainable management of tropical forests is obtaining reliable growth data for trees| which is a prerequisite for determining harvesting volumes and cutting cycles. GOL is the first concept for sustainable management of tropical timber resources in Amazonian floodplain forests (varzea) based on species-specific management criteria| such as minimum logging diameters (MLDs) and cutting cycles. From timber species with varying wood densities of different successional stages| volume stocks have been estimated in 1-ha plots and 12 growth models have been developed based on tree rings| which are annually formed as a consequence of the regular| long-term flooding. The MLDs of timber species vary between 47 and 70 cm and the estimated cutting cycles differ the 10-fold| from 3 to 32 years. These enormous differences in the growth rates between tropical timber species are not considered in current management practices| which apply only one diameter cutting limit and one cutting cycle to harvest many tree species. This practice risks the overexploitation of slow-growing timber species| while the fast-growing timber species with low wood densities cannot be efficiently used. Based on the timber stocks and lifetime growth rates| the GOL concept has been created as an aid to improve forest management in the Central Amazonian varzea. The model is unique for tropical silviculture. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8404,2008,2,3,HABITAT PREFERENCES OF CALIFORNIA SEA LIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSERVATION,California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) occur along much of the Pacific coast of North America| but the number of breeding areas that are occupied is relatively small. Our understanding of the attributes that make these few sites preferable is currently limited. We quantified habitat characteristics-substrate type and coloration| aspect| slope| curvature of shoreline| and availability of shade| water pools| and resting areas-at 26 sites (7 islands) occupied by sea lions and 33 unused sites (8 islands) distributed throughout the Gulf of California| Mexico. Logistic regression models were used to explore how habitat characteristics explained sea lion occupancy patterns. Models discriminated very well between Occupied and unused sites| and showed that occupied locations were more often located in sites with larger-size rocks (odds ratio [OR] = 1.209)| lighter-color substrates (OR = 0.219)| and convex shorelines (OR = 1.067). All of these preferred characteristics are likely to play a role in the prevention of heat stress in sea lions| suggesting that increases in temperature| such as those expected from global warming| may pose an additional risk for this already declining sea lion population. To partially offset this risk| our results may be used to identify| and protect| unused but suitable (i.e.| thermally favorable) habitat. In addition| we recommend effective protection and monitoring of the currently occupied areas and their populations. 1088,2008,2,4,Habitat shifts of endangered species under altered climate conditions: importance of biotic interactions,Predicting changes in potential habitat for endangered species as a result of global warming requires considering more than future climate conditions; it is also necessary to evaluate biotic associations. Most distribution models predicting species responses to climate change include climate variables and occasionally topographic and edaphic parameters| rarely are biotic interactions included. Here| we incorporate biotic interactions into niche models to predict suitable habitat for species under altered climates. We constructed and evaluated niche models for an endangered butterfly and a threatened bird species| both are habitat specialists restricted to semiarid shrublands of southern California. To incorporate their dependency on shrubs| we first developed climate-based niche models for shrubland vegetation and individual shrub species. We also developed models for the butterfly's larval host plants. Outputs from these models were included in the environmental variable dataset used to create butterfly and bird niche models. For both animal species| abiotic-biotic models outperformed the climate-only model| with climate-only models over-predicting suitable habitat under current climate conditions. We used the climate-only and abiotic-biotic models to calculate amounts of suitable habitat under altered climates and to evaluate species' sensitivities to climate change. We varied temperature (+0.6| +1.7| and +2.8 degrees C) and precipitation (50%| 90%| 100%| 110%| and 150%) relative to current climate averages and within ranges predicted by global climate change models. Suitable habitat for each species was reduced at all levels of temperature increase. Both species were sensitive to precipitation changes| particularly increases. Under altered climates| including biotic variables reduced habitat by 68-100% relative to the climate-only model. To design reserve systems conserving sensitive species under global warming| it is important to consider biotic interactions| particularly for habitat specialists and species with strong dependencies on other species. 8561,2008,2,4,Hadley circulation changes under global warming conditions indicated by coupled climate models,We use the mean meridional tropical circulation of the Atmospheric Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models (AOGCM) to diagnose and quantify the modifications of the mean meridional circulation of the atmosphere under global warming conditions. The AOGCMs generally show a weakening of the Hadley circulation for the winter cell in both hemispheres| accompanied by a poleward extension of the Hadley circulation area. The conditions explaining these modifications are analysed using detailed outputs from IPSL-CM4. The AOGCM IPSL-CM4 shows changes| under CO(2) doubling| that are in accordance with the other models| for austral winter. On the other hand| for boreal winter| the winter cell shows little change in intensity and in extension. The poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere winter Hadley cell corresponds to changes in the transient eddies| whereas the increase of the dry static stability is mainly responsible for the mean weakening of the cell. For boreal winter| a strong shrinking of the ascending branch area| and an increase of the latent heating| is found to cancel the weakening of the circulation due to dry static stability increase. 8626,2008,3,4,Harnessing methane emissions from coal mining,Methane emissions associated with coal-mine ventilation pose a tremendous environmental problem and lead to inadvertent loss of a valuable energy source. The proportion of methane released through underground ventilation is as high as 70% of all the coal-related emissions. Additionally| the CH(4) Global Warming Potential is 21 (for a timescale of 100 years)| compared with 1 for carbon dioxide. If the heat of combustion of the methane could be usefully employed| this would bring a twofold benefit of avoiding both CH(4) release and CO(2) emission from the production and use of the fuel thereby displaced. The projects carried out in the Institute of Chemical Engineering| Polish Academy of Sciences explored three major routes for utilizing ventilation air methane (VAM): (1) using VAM as combustion air in conventional boilers| (2) oxidizing VAM in reverse-flow reactors (either catalytic or non-catalytic) to produce heat| (3) enriching VAM (via pressure-swing adsorption or membrane separation) to concentration levels suitable for subsequent use (in| say| reverse-flow reactors). The investigations have now been focused upon homogeneous combustion of VAM in reverse-flow reactors. (C) 2008 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1046,2008,2,4,Have tropical cyclones been feeding more extreme rainfall?,We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data| and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate| and TC-rain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically| 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs| compared to 9% of rain events| and 21% of rain amount in WNP. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain| Omega| increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005| and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005)| we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP| there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period| but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for both periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT| where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slightly more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In WNP| trend signals for Omega are mixed| and the long-term relationship between TC rain and warm pool area is strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability. 9265,2008,2,4,HEAT STRESS EFFECTS ON GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT IN THREE ECOTYPES OF VARYING LATITUDE OF ARABIDOPSIS,Global temperatures have increased 0.6 degrees C over the past century; however regional temperatures have shown greater fluctuations. Since local environmental conditions vary along latitudinal clines| latitude has become an essential component in projecting plant response to warming. Three ecotypes of Arabidopsis were selected from varying latitudes in order to investigate heat stress within an ecotype and project potential effects across a gradient. Control and heat stressed groups received 12 hour photoperiods. Control plants were grown at 2.7/22.7 degrees C day/night mean temperatures and heat stressed plants were grown at 22.7/29 degrees C day/night mean temperatures. Plants were quantified and harvested 35 days after sowing. The number of rosette leaves| flower buds| and fruits resulted in significant differences both between control and heat stressed plants of the same ecotype and also across ecotypes. Heat overwhelmingly resulted in a quantitative decrease across all parameters| including overall plant size| with the exception of flowers in ecotype 902. And even though the heat stressed 902 plants flowered while the control group plants did not| neither produced fruit. Thus| heat adversely affects growth and development as well as reproductive success in Arabidopsis.
8442,2008,2,4,Heat Stress in the Intertidal: Comparing Survival and Growth of an Invasive and Native Mussel Under a Variety of Thermal Conditions,In the rocky intertidal| organisms frequently experience a wide range of daily body temperatures depending on the stage of the tide and the time of day. In the intertidal| the thermal adaption of a species and its ability to invade a new region may be closely linked. In this research| the physiological effects of thermal stress in both low tide and high tide conditions are compared between Mytilus galloprovincialis| a worldwide mussel invader| and M. trossulus| a sibling species. In a seawater tank| mussels were exposed to one of three aerial temperature treatments (20| 25| 30 degrees C) in a cycle with one of two water temperatures (18| 12 degrees C). In 18 degrees C water| there was no effect of the aerial treatments on growth or survival in either species. In contrast| in 12 degrees C water| aerial exposure affected the survival and growth of both species. Growth and survival rates of M. galloprovincialis were higher in all conditions than the rates of M. trossulus| especially in the 18 degrees C water experiments and in the aerial exposure treatments of the winter 12 degrees C water experiment. M. galloprovincialis appears to be warm-adapted with regard to both low tide and high tide thermal stress. These results when paired with previous research suggest that as climates shift due to global warming| the temperatures favorable to M. galloprovincialis will become more common. 8959,2008,2,4,Heat stress stimulates nitric oxide production in Symbiodinium microadriaticum: A possible linkage between nitric oxide and the coral bleaching phenomenon,Nitric oxide (NO) is a gas displaying multiple physiological functions in plants| animals and bacteria. The enzymes nitrate reductase and NO synthase have been suggested to be involved in the production of NO in plants and algae| but the implication of those enzymes in NO production under physiological conditions remains obscure. Symbiodinium microadriaticum| commonly referred to as zooxanthellae| is a marine microalga commonly found in symbiotic association with a cnidarian host including reef-building corals. Here we demonstrate NO production in zooxanthellae upon supplementation of either sodium nitrite or L-arginine as a substrate. The nitrite-dependent NO production was detected electrochemically and confirmed by the application of 2-(4-carboxyphenyl)-4|4|5|5-tetramethylimidazoline-1-oxyl-3-oxide (cPTIO)| a specific NO scavenger. Cells stained with the diaminofluorescein| DAF-2 DA| an NO fluorescent probe| showed an increase in fluorescence intensity upon supplementation of both sodium nitrite and L-arginine. Microscopic observations of DAF-stained cells verified that NO was produced inside the cells. NO production in S. microadriaticum was found to increase upon exposure of cells to an acute heat stress which also caused a decline in the photosynthetic efficiency of PSII (F(v)/F(m)). This study provides substantial evidence to confirm that zooxanthellae can synthesize NO even when they are not in a symbiotic association with a coral host. The increase in NO production at high temperatures suggests that heat stress stimulates the microalgal NO production in a temperature-dependent manner. The implications of these findings are discussed in the light of the coral bleaching phenomenon which is associated with elevated sea surface temperature due to global warming. 1156,2008,2,4,Heavy metal and mineral concentrations and their relationship to histopathological findings in the bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus),The bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) is a species endangered over much of its range that is of great cultural significance and subsistence value to the Inuit of Northern Alaska. This species occupies subarctic and arctic regions presently undergoing significant ecological change and hydrocarbon development. Thus| understanding the health status of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Sea (BCBS) stock of bowhead whales is of importance. In this study| we evaluated the concentrations of six essential and non-essential elements (Zn| tHg| Ag| Se| Cu and Cd) in liver and kidney of bowhead whales (n=64). These tissues were collected from the Inuit subsistence hunt in Barrow| Wainwright and Kaktovik| Alaska between 1983 and 2001. Reference ranges of these elements (including previously reported data from 1983-1997) were developed for this species as part of a health assessment effort| and interpreted using improved aging techniques (aspartic acid racemization and baleen isotopic C-13 methods) to evaluate trends over time with increased statistical power. Interactions between element concentrations and age| sex and harvest season were assessed. Age was found to be of highest significance. Sex and harvest season did not effect the concentrations of these elements| with the exception of renal Se levels| which were significantly higher in fall seasons. in addition| histological evaluation of tissues from whales collected between 1998-2001 was performed. Associations between concentrations of Cd in kidney and liver and scored histopathological changes were evaluated. Liver Cd concentration was strongly associated with the degree of lung fibromuscular hyperplasia (P=0.001) and moderately associated with the degree of renal fibrosis (P=0.03). Renal Cd concentration influenced the degree of lung fibromuscular hyperplasia and renal fibrosis (P=0.01). A significant age effect was found for both pulmonary fibromuscular hyperplasia and renal fibrosis| indicating age may be a causative factor. Improvements in aging techniques and the addition of histological indices help clarify the relationships between elements and the influence of life history parameters on concentrations of these elements and potential impacts on health. These data provide essential baseline input useful for monitoring the effects of arctic ecosystem change as it relates to global climate change and industrial development| as well as help inform epidemiological studies examining the public health implications of heavy metals in subsistence foods. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8852,2008,3,4,Heavy reflux PSA cycles for CO2 recovery from flue gas: Part I. Performance evaluation,This study evaluated nine stripping PSA cycle configurations| all with a heavy reflux (HR) step| some with a light reflux (LR) step| and some with a recovery (REC) or feed plus recycle (F+R) step| for concentrating CO2 from stack and flue gas at high temperature (575 K) using a K-promoted HTlc. Under the process conditions studied| the addition of the LR step always resulted in a better process performance; and in all cases| the addition of a REC or F+R step surprisingly did not affect the process performance except at low feed throughputs| where either cycle step resulted in a similar diminished performance. The best cycle based on overall performance was a 5-bed 5-step stripping PSA cycle with LR and HR from countercurrent depressurization (CnD) (98.7% CO2 purity| 98.7% CO2 recovery and 5.8 L STP/hr/kg feed throughput). The next best cycle was a 5-bed 5-step stripping PSA cycle with LR and HR from LR purge (96.5% CO2 purity| 71.1% CO2 recovery and 57.6 L STP/hr/kg feed throughput). These improved performances were caused mainly by the use of a very small purge to feed ratio (gamma=0.02) for the former cycle and a larger one (gamma=0.50) for the latter cycle. The former cycle was good for producing CO2 at high purities and recoveries but at lower feed throughputs| and the latter cycle was useful for obtaining CO2 at high purities and feed throughputs but at lower recoveries. The best performance of a 4-bed 4-step stripping PSA cycle with HR from CnD was disappointing because of low CO2 recoveries (99.2% CO2 purity| 15.2% CO2 recovery and 72.0 L STP/hr/kg feed throughput). This last result revealed that the recoveries of this cycle would always be much lower than the corresponding cycles with a LR step| no matter the process conditions| and that the LR step was very important to the performance of these HR cycles for this application and process conditions studied. 8994,2008,4,4,Hemispherical asymmetry of tropical precipitation in ECHAM5/MPI-OM during El Nino and under global warming,Similarities and differences between El Nino and global warming are examined in hemispherical and zonal tropical precipitation changes of the ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) simulations. Similarities include hemispherical asymmetry of tropical precipitation changes. This precipitation asymmetry varies with season. In the boreal summer and autumn (winter and spring)| positive precipitation anomalies are found over the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere and negative precipitation anomalies are found over the Southern (Northern) Hemisphere. This precipitation asymmetry in both the El Niho and global warming cases is associated with the seasonal migration of the Hadley circulation; however| their causes are different. In El Niho| a meridional moisture gradient between convective and subsidence regions is the fundamental basis for inducing the asymmetry. Over the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation| convection is enhanced by less effective static stability. Over the margins of the ascending branch| convection is suppressed by the import of dry air from the descending branch. In global warming| low-level moisture is enhanced significantly due to warmer tropospheric temperatures. This enhances vertical moisture transport over the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation| so convection is strengthened. Over the descending branch| the mean Hadley circulation tends to transport relatively drier air downward| so convection is reduced. 8805,2008,2,4,Heterogeneous intra-annual climatic changes drive different phenological responses at two trophic levels,A shift in a life cycle event of one species relative to other species in an ecosystem should be considered more relevant than an absolute shift in phenological dates. However| there is very little evidence regarding the differential effects of climate change on the phenologies of different trophic levels and their potential effects on ecosystem functioning. The Japan Meteorological Agency has monitored the flowering of 4 Prunus tree species and the appearance date of the butterfly Pieris rapae (a proxy for potential pollinators) in spring at Nagano| Japan| since 1953. Flowering tended to occur earlier over the last 3 decades| whereas the appearance of the butterfly was delayed. The effects of climate and. the timing of the sensitive period differ between both trophic levels. The plants were strongly affected by temperature (r = -0.87) 30 to 40 d prior to flowering| whereas the butterfly was less affected by temperature (r = -0.50)| and the effects mainly occurred during the 15 d prior to its appearance. The temperature during the plants' sensitive period has increased sharply since 1953| whereas the temperature during the butterfly's sensitive period has not changed significantly. The phenologies of the plants and butterfly are changing in opposite directions because they use different climatic cues with different temporal trends. This is the first documentation of differential effects of climate change between plant and insect phenology in Japan. 8559,2008,3,4,Heterologous expression of a plastid EF-Tu reduces protein thermal aggregation and enhances CO(2) fixation in wheat (Triticum aestivum) following heat stress,Heat stress is a major constraint to wheat production and negatively impacts grain quality| causing tremendous economic losses| and may become a more troublesome factor due to global warming. At the cellular level| heat stress causes denaturation and aggregation of proteins and injury to membranes leading to alterations in metabolic fluxes. Protein aggregation is irreversible| and protection of proteins from thermal aggregation is a strategy a cell uses to tolerate heat stress. Here we report on the development of transgenic wheat (Triticum aestivum) events| expressing a maize gene coding for plastidal protein synthesis elongation factor (EF-Tu)| which| compared to non-transgenic plants| display reduced thermal aggregation of leaf proteins| reduced heat injury to photosynthetic membranes (thylakoids)| and enhanced rate of CO(2) fixation after exposure to heat stress. The results support the concept that EF-Tu ameliorates negative effects of heat stress by acting as a molecular chaperone. This is the first demonstration of the introduction of a plastidal EF-Tu in plants that leads to protection against heat injury and enhanced photosynthesis after heat stress. This is also the first demonstration that a gene other than HSP gene can be used for improvement of heat tolerance and that the improvement is possible in a species that has a complex genome| hexaploid wheat. The results strongly suggest that heat tolerance of wheat| and possibly other crop plants| can be improved by modulating expression of plastidal EF-Tu and/or by selection of genotypes with increased endogenous levels of this protein. 8496,2008,4,3,Hierarchical fusion of expert opinions in the Transferable Belief Model| application to climate sensitivity,This paper examines the fusion of conflicting and not independent expert opinion in the Transferable Belief Model. A hierarchical fusion procedure based on the partition of experts into schools of thought is introduced| justified by the sociology of science concepts of epistemic communities and competing theories. Within groups| consonant beliefs are aggregated using the cautious conjunction operator| to pool together distinct streams of evidence without assuming that experts are independent. Across groups| the non-interactive disjunction is used| assuming that when several scientific theories compete| they cannot be all true at the same time| but at least one will remain. This procedure balances points of view better than averaging: the number of experts holding a view is not essential. This approach is illustrated with a 16 expert real-world dataset on climate sensitivity obtained in 1995. Climate sensitivity is a key parameter to assess the severity of the global warming issue. Comparing our findings with recent results suggests that the plausibility that sensitivity is small (below 1.5 degrees C) has decreased since 1995| while the plausibility that it is above 4.5 degrees C remains high. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1269,2008,2,4,High temperatures activate local viral multiplication and cell-to-cell movement of Melon necrotic spot virus but restrict expression of systemic symptoms,The infection of melon plants by Melon necrotic spot virus (MNSV) and the development of necrotic disease symptoms are a seasonal occurrence in Japan| which take place between winter and early summer| but not during mid-summer. In this paper we investigate the effect of three different temperatures (15| 20| and 25 degrees C) on the local and systemic expression of MNSV in melon plants. Previously| the incidence of plants expressing systemic symptoms caused by MNSV and other viruses was found to be greater at temperatures less than 20 degrees C. In this study| our temperature-shift experiments support previous studies that found the expression of systemic symptoms increases as temperature falls from 25 to 20 degrees C and decreases as temperature rises from 20 to 25 degrees C. However| MNSV replication in melon cells and local viral movement within leaves following the inoculation of melon protoplasts or cotyledons were more frequent at 25 degrees C than at 15 or 20 degrees C. 8513,2008,3,3,High-Efficiency PFC Abatement System Utilizing Plasma Decomposition and Ca(OH)(2)/CaO Immobilization,In order to minimize contributions to global warming| it is important to develop a perfluorocompound (PFC) abatement system that can remove PFCs effectively with low electric power. We have developed a new PFC abatement system consisting mainly of a 2-MHz ICP plasma source and two Ca(OH)(2)/CaO columns operated under a decompression pressure. Reactive fluorinated compounds including SiF4 are immobilized in the Ca(OH)(2)/CaO columns without a water scrubber. Stable compounds such as CF4 are excited by the 2-MHz ICP plasma. When the emissions from an Si oxidation film etching process chamber were treated by this abatement system| F-2 equivalent removal efficiency was 99.6%| which was about one order of magnitude larger than that of a conventional abatement system. But the CO2 equivalent removal efficiency was calculated to be 91.4% because over 95% of CO2 equivalent emissions were caused by the plasma source power consumption of 2.4 kWh. It means that minimization of the plasma source power consumption| depending on PFC emissions| is a very effective method of minimizing contributions to global warming in a manner similar to improving the PFC removal efficiency. 8652,2008,5,4,High-resolution foraminiferal| isotopic| and trace element records from Holocene estuarine deposits of San Francisco Bay| California,A 3.5-m gravity core (DJ6-93SF-6) from San Francisco Bay reveals a complex paleoclimatic history of the region over the last 3870 cal YBP. A polynomial equation based on 11 AMS C-14 ages provides an excellent age model for the core| and environmental proxies for water temperature Land salinity are derived from various foraminiferal abundances| stable carbon and oxygen isotopes| and Mg/Ca ratios. Two foraminiferal associations were identified by Q-mode cluster analysis. a colder-water Elphidium excavatum association and the warmer-water Ammonia beccarii-Elphidium gunteri association. The E. excavation association dominates the core for all but about 600 years out of the last four millennia. At 3870 cal YBP| water temperatures were warm (13.9 degrees C) and freshwater inflow was reduced compared with today. From 3|590 to 2860 cal YBP| temperatures dropped 0.5 degrees C and the climate remained dry. This was followed by a period of pronounced lower delta C-13 values| indicating that conditions became considerably wetter from 2860 to 2170 cal YBP. During this interval| the temperature oscillated frequently| peaking at 13.9 degrees C at 2710 cal YBP| then dropping shortly thereafter to 12.8 degrees C at 2420 cal YBP. Freshwater inflow gradually decreased between 2170 and 1950 cal YBP with a minimal rise in temperature| then changed quickly to colder and wetter conditions at 1900 cal YBP. Drier conditions then prevailed until 1480 cal YBP with water temperatures fluctuating between 13.1 degrees C and 13.8 degrees C| followed by wetter climate from 1480 to 1320 cal YBP. A significant faunal shift from the E. excavatum association to the A. beccarii-E. gunteri association occurred from 1.250 to 650 cal YBP| possibly clue to regional warming| decreased oxygen availability| and/or a change in the phyto-plankton community. Associated with this change in faunal composition were warm and dry conditions| representative of the Medieval Warm Period (Medieval Climatic Anomaly). A climatic shift coincident with the onset of the Little Ice Age (LIA I and LIA II) is evident from 650 to 280 cal YBP| with the return of the E. excavatum association and an extreme drop in delta O-18 values| all indicating increased precipitation and fresh water inflow. This was followed by generally drier conditions to the present| except for a brief wet period around 100 cal YBP| and fairly consistent water temperatures in the middle 13 degrees C| except for a drop to 12.8 degrees C at| 200 cal YBP. Two significant faunal changes occur near the top of the core. First| there is the reappearance of the A. beccarii - E. gunteri association suggesting that| once again| regional warming has taken place| oxygen availability has declined| and/or environmental conditions changed such that diatoms have become a scarce food source. Second| there is the first| appearance of the invasive Japanese foraminifera Trochammina hadai Uchio| a species that commonly lives in highly polluted areas and is an indicator of eutrophication in its native estuaries. At the same time| freshwater inflow decreased| which may be explained by global warming during the last 100 years| or more likely due to modern water diversion for agriculture in the central|alley of California. 8943,2008,5,4,High-resolution magnetic susceptibility and geochemistry for the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary GSSP with correlation to time equivalent core,The Upper Cretaceous Cenomanian/Turonian (C/T) boundary represents the most significant thermal climatic event in the Mesozoic| and it has been well-studied. Here we present a relatively new approach for providing both independent| climate-based cyclostratigraphic analysis and correlation among C/T sections. We have collected samples for bulk (initial) low-field magnetic susceptibility (MS) measurement and high-resolution inorganic geochemical analyses from two C/T sequences: (1) the well-defined| C/T Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) located at Lake Pueblo| Colorado| and deposited in the Upper Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway of North America| and (2) the well-studied marlstone and limestone USGS#1 Portland Core| drilled at Portland| Colorado| similar to 40 km to the west of the C/T GSSP. Comparing the lithostratigraphy| chemostratigraphy| and magnetostratigraphic susceptibility (developed from magnetic susceptibility (MS) data) indicates that the USGS#1 Portland Core closely compares with the C/T GSSP sequence using any of the three measures| demonstrating that intervals collected and sampled from these two sequences are highly correlated. A preliminary magnetostratigraphic susceptibility zonation for the C/T boundary is presented to which other MS work can be compared. Fourier Transform (FT) analysis of the MS data from the GSSP| when compared with previous FT work using geochemical analysis of Portland core samples shows close similarities to the GSSP| with Milankovitch eccentricity| obliquity and precession bands well-defined in both data sets. Using this result| we assign relative ages to the intervals sampled and evaluate changes in absolute sediment accumulation rates through the C/T boundary interval. We show that while sediment accumulation rate is relatively high in the upper Cenomanian| a change toward lower accumulation rates in the GSSP section at the C/T boundary is due to reduced productivity following the C/T extinction events that resulted from global warming associated with Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2) that began in the uppermost Cenomanian. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 9174,2008,4,4,High-sensitivity detection of hazardous SO(2) using 266 nm UV laser,Pulsed laser resonant photoacoustic spectroscopy was applied for detection of highly toxic SO(2) with 266 nm as the excitation source. An extra-cavity longitudinal resonant cell| was designed and fabricated to enhance the sensitivity of the system| which is capable of detecting the trace amount of SO(2). As a process of signal-to-noise ratio optimization| the parametric dependence of the PA signal was carried out and the sensitivity achieved with our system was as low as 4 ppb| which is considered to be a sufficient level for the detection of ambient SO(2) in the atmosphere. This study could be an antecedent for the design of a portable SO(2) sensor. 8512,2008,2,4,Historical Changes in the Mississippi-Alabama Barrier-Island Chain and the Roles of Extreme Storms| Sea Level| and Human Activities,Barrier-island chains worldwide are undergoing substantial changes| and their futures remain uncertain. An historical analysis of a barrier-island chain in the north-central Gulf of Mexico shows that the Mississippi barriers are undergoing rapid systematic land loss and translocation associated with: (1) unequal lateral transfer of sand related to greater updrift erosion compared to downdrift deposition; (2) barrier narrowing resulting from simultaneous erosion of shores along the Gulf and Mississippi Sound; and (3) barrier segmentation related to storm breaching. Dauphin Island| Alabama| is also losing land for some of the same reasons as it gradually migrates landward. The principal causes of land loss are frequent intense storms| a relative rise in sea level| and a sediment-budget deficit. Considering the predicted trends for storms and sea level related to global warming| it is certain that the Mississippi-Alabama (MS-AL) barrier islands will continue to lose land area at a rapid rate unless the trend of at least one causal factor reverses. Historical land-loss trends and engineering records show that progressive increases in land-loss rate correlate with nearly simultaneous deepening of channels dredged across the outer bars of the three tidal inlets maintained for deep-draft shipping. This correlation indicates that channel-maintenance activities along the MS-AL barriers have impacted the sediment budget by disrupting the alongshore sediment transport system and progressively reducing sand supply. Direct management of this causal factor can be accomplished by strategically placing dredged sediment where adjacent barrier-island shores will receive it for island nourishment and rebuilding. 9086,2008,2,4,Historical trends and future predictions of climate variability in the Brahmaputra basin,An innovative approach is developed and presented to assess historical climate variations and to quantify future climate change for the entire Brahmaputra basin. Historical trends in temperature and precipitation are analysed from 1900 to 2002 for the Tibetan plateau (TP)| the Himalayan belt and the floodplains (FP) using a global 100 year monthly high resolution dataset. Temperature patterns are consistent with global warming and out of the 10% warmest years from 1900 to 2002 six occurred between 1995 and 2002. No clear trends in precipitation were found and annual precipitation in the basin is mainly determined by the strength of the monsoon. Regression analysis is used to further explain monsoon precipitation. A significant inverse relation is found between air temperature differences between the FP and the TP and the strength of the monsoon| whereas the El Nino Southern Oscillation teleconnection does not have a prominent role in explaining variation in monsoon precipitation. Simulation results of six general circulation models are statistically downscaled to the spatial resolution of the observed dataset for two future storylines. The analysis predicts accelerated seasonal increases in both temperature and precipitation from 2000 to 2100. The largest changes occur on the TP and the smallest on the FP. Multiple regression analysis shows a sharp increase in the occurrence of average and extreme downstream discharges for both storylines. The strongest increases are projected for the monsoon season and the largest threat of climate change lies in the associated flooding in the densely populated FP. Copyright (c) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society. 9092,2008,5,4,Holocene climate inferred from biological (Diptera : Chironomidae) analyses in a Southampton island (Nunavut| Canada) lake,Concerns about the effects of global warming on Arctic environments have stimulated multi-disciplinary research into the history of their long-term climatic and environmental variability to improve future predictions of climate in these remote areas. Here we present the first palaeolimnological study for Southampton Island using analyses of chironomids supported by sedimentological analyses| carried out on a 1 m long core retrieved from a lake located in the northeastern part of the island. This core was made up of marine sediments underneath 65 cm of freshwater lake sediments. A marine shell| humic-acids and chironomid head capsules were used to date this sequence. The Holocene environmental history of the lake consisted of two major contrasting periods. The first one| between about 5570 and 4360 cal. yr BP| was climatically unstable| with common postglacial chironomid taxa such as Corynocera oliveri-type| Paracladius and Microspectra radialis-type. This period also corresponded to the highest chironomid-inferred August air temperature (10 degrees C) for the whole record and to significant increases in major chemical elements as detected by x-ray fluorescence. During the second period| which lasted from about 3570 cal. yr BP until the present| limnological conditions seemed to stabilize after a change to cold oligotrophic chironomid taxa| such as Heterotrissocladius subpilosus-group| with no major variations in the abundance of chemical elements. Inferred August air temperatures ranged between 8 and 9 degrees C. This study provided unique information on the timing of the Holocene Thermal Maximum in the Foxe Basin area| a region with very little information available on long-term climate change. This region showed| so far| relatively few signs of recent climatic change| as opposed to other regions in the High Arctic. 8573,2008,5,4,Holocene environmental changes and the seal (Phocidae) fauna of the Baltic Sea: coming| going and staying,1. The occurrence of different species of seal (Phocidae) during the Holocene in north-eastern Europe was influenced by a changing geological situation over the last 12 000 years| characterized by alternating freshwater| brackish and marine stages and by spatially and temporally limited opportunities for migration of marine species into the Baltic basin. The patterns of immigration by ringed seal Phoca hispida| harp seal Phoca groenlandica| grey seal Halichoerus grypus and harbour seal Phoca vitulina are reviewed here in order to understand present distributions and population sizes. Furthermore| the future of their populations is analysed. 2. Phoca hispida immigrated into the Baltic basin during its brackish Yoldia Stage at the Late Glacial/Early Holocene boundary and has persisted in some disjunct populations until now. A second immigration followed at the beginning of the Littorina Transgression - which resulted in the present stage of the Baltic Sea| obviously caused by the strong cooling event that occurred 6200 calibrated (14)C years BC. Its present status is not threatened| but global warming will restrict suitable habitat. 3. Phoca groenlandica had a mid-Holocene intermezzo in the Baltic Sea. Its later disappearance was probably caused by hunting of subadult animals by humans. 4. Halichoerus grypus and Phoca vitulina also immigrated at the beginning of the present stage of the Baltic Sea. Whereas H. grypus has been common from this beginning point until modern times| the population of P. vitulina persisted at a low level for millennia. Only since the 18th century has its population increased and spread over the whole Baltic Sea. 9157,2008,3,4,How do we receive CO(2)-footprints for food of animal origin?,The environmental assessment of human activities is a hot topic presently. It is not only important from the environmental view| but also from the view of efficient utilization of limited natural resources| such as fuel| area| water| phosphorus and other resources. Presently so-called CO(2Eq)-footprints are deduced for food to quantify their environmental impact. The objective of the paper is to develop such footprints for food of animal origin and to show present weaknesses. On the bases of the emissions (carbon dioxide| methane| laughing gas) during crop production| transportation| storing and processing of feeds| animal keeping| enteric losses in animals and during excrement management and under consideration of the global warming potential of the gases (CO(2Eq)) CO(2)-footprints for production of milk| beef| pork| poultry meat and eggs are deduced and compared with sonic references. Apart from food the emission are also calculated on the base of edible protein of animal origin. Finally conclusions for further research need are given. CO(2Eq)-footprints may contribute to the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions of food of animal origin| but further factors as utilization of grassland and by-products or conservation of the countryside must be also considered for a complex assessment of various production Systems. 8989,2008,2,4,How global warming may affect the prevalence of Lyme disease,In recent years| there has been an increase in media reports about the potential effects of climate change| such as rising sea levels| hurricanes| droughts| shrinking polar ice| and extinction of various wildlife species. Another possible| more insidious effect of global climate change is the expansion of the endemic range of disease vectors| including mosquitoes and ticks. In veterinary medicine| this may translate to an increased number of cases of tick-borne diseases| such as Lyme disease| in geographic areas that were traditionally thought not to harbor ticks. Therefore| technicians should educate owners about the increasing prevalence of these types of diseases and monitor patients for clinical signs of infection.
8483,2008,2,4,How well do first flowering dates measure plant responses to climate change? The effects of population size and sampling frequency,1. First flowering dates are occurring earlier than they did in the past in many locations around the world. It is sometimes assumed| implicitly or explicitly| that the changes in first flowering dates describe the phenological behaviour of entire populations. However| first flowering dates represent one extreme of the flowering distribution and may be susceptible to undesirable confounding effects. 2. We used observations of flowering in Colorado and Massachusetts to test whether changes in population size and sampling frequency affect observations of first flowering dates. 3. We found that the effect of population size on first flowering dates depended on location. Changes in population size were strongly related to the dates on which first flowering was observed in Massachusetts but not in Colorado. The lack of a significant effect in Colorado may reflect the rapid onset of spring after snowmelt and fixed developmental schedules of the plants at this sub-alpine site| or the scale of the plots sampled during the study. 4. We also found that changes in sampling frequency can influence observed changes in first flowering dates and other aspects of the flowering distribution. Similar to the effect of declines in population size| lower sampling frequency caused later observations of first flowering. However| lower sampling frequency| if maintained consistently throughout a study| did not significantly affect estimates of changes in flowering dates over time or in response to climate. 5. Synthesis. Researchers should consider the effects of changes in population size and sampling frequency when interpreting changes in first flowering dates. In some cases| past results may need to be reinterpreted. When possible| researchers should observe the entire flowering distribution or consider tracking peak or mean flowering dates to avoid the confounding effects of population size and sampling frequency. 1226,2008,5,4,Humus status of buried soils in loess deposits of the Minusinsk intermontane trough,The study of the humus status of the buried soil sequence in loess deposits of the Minusinsk intermontane trough revealed that the group humus composition and humus properties of the buried soils did not undergo considerable changes and preserved their initial parameters upon the burial under the conditions of low biological activity. Neither the group humans composition nor the humus substance properties fell beyond the limits typical of the humus status of recent soils. The fractional composition of the humus acids might undergo secondary alternations after the burial. The dependence between the humus type and the length of the biological activity period permitted us to make a paleoclimatic reconstruction of the bioclimatic conditions that might have existed during the formation of the loess deposits in the Minusinsk intermontane trough. It was shown that the soil-climatic zones were repeatedly alternating during the Quaternary period due to the global climate change. 1251,2008,2,2,Hurricanes and global warming - Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations,Changes in tropical cyclone activity are among the more potentially consequential results of global climate change| and it is therefore of considerable interest to understand how anthropogenic climate change may affect such storms. Global climate models are currently used to estimate future climate change| but the current generation of models lacks the horizontal resolution necessary to resolve the intense inner core of tropical cyclones. Here we review a new technique for inferring tropical cyclone climatology from the output of global models| extend it to predict genesis climatologies (rather than relying on historical climatology)| and apply it to current and future climate states simulated by a suite of global models developed in support of the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. This new technique attacks the horizontal resolution problem by using a specialized| coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model phrased in angular momentum coordinates| which provide a high resolution of the core at low cost. This model is run along each of 2|000 storm tracks generated using an advection-and-beta model| which is| in turn| driven by large-scale winds derived from the global models. In an extension to this method| tracks are initiated by randomly seeding large areas of the tropics with weak vortices and then allowing the intensity model to determine their survival| based on large-scale environmental conditions. We show that this method is largely successful in reproducing the observed seasonal cycle and interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the present climate| and that it is more modestly successful in simulating their spatial distribution. When applied to simulations of global climate with double the present concentration of carbon dioxide| this method predicts substantial changes and geographic shifts in tropical cyclone activity| but with much variation among the global climate models used. Basinwide power dissipation and storm intensity generally increase with global warming| but the results vary from model to model and from basin to basin. Storm frequency decreases in the Southern Hemisphere and north Indian Ocean| increases in the western North Pacific| and is indeterminate elsewhere. We demonstrate that in these simulations| the change in tropical cyclone activity is greatly influenced by the increasing difference between the moist entropy of the boundary layer and that of the middle troposphere as the climate warms. 9131,2008,2,4,Hydraulic management drives heat budgets and temperature trends in a Mediterranean reservoir,By contrast to the more regular and predictable temperate lakes| heat budgets and temperature dynamics in Mediterranean reservoirs are characterized by a marked interannual variability. In the present paper| the heat content| annual Birgean heat budget (ABHB)| and thermal structure of San Reservoir were examined during a period of hypolimnetic withdrawal between 1980 and 1985| and during a period of withdrawal at intermediate depths between 1996 and 2003. The two study periods were also characterized by a wide range of stored water volume fluctuations. Results were used to develop and validate an empirical model to predict annual and monthly heat dynamics statistics and mixed layer depth as a function of hydraulic management parameters such as water volume and selective withdrawal depth. During the hypolimnetic withdrawal period elevated ABHB and deep mixed layer depths were recorded in the reservoir| which behaved as a heat trap. By contrast| intermediate depth withdrawal promoted a shallower and more stable thermocline| thus increasing the cold hypolimnetic water volume and decreasing heat content and ABHB. The study reveals that hydraulic management constitutes the main driver of the beat and thermal dynamics in reservoirs with multiple withdrawal outlets. By contrast with the increasing temperature trends recorded in many natural lakes| the hydraulic management in San Reservoir induced a progressive reduction in water temperature and heat content in the system| thus partially counteracting the possible deleterious effects of global warming. Our intensive study in a single| highly-dynamic ecosystem constitutes a new approximation to the study of thermal structure and heat dynamics in water bodies. 8673,2008,3,4,Hydrodefluorination of perfluoroalkyl groups using silylium-carborane catalysts,Carbon-fluorine bonds are among the most unreactive functionalities in chemistry. Interest in their activation arises in part from the high global warming potentials of anthropogenic polyfluoroorganic compounds. Conversion to carbon- hydrogen bonds (hydrodefluorination) is the simplest modification of carbon- fluorine bonds| but efficient catalytic hydrodefluorination of perfluoroalkyl groups has been an unmet challenge. We report a class of carborane- supported| highly electrophilic silylium compounds that act as long- lived catalysts for hydrodefluorination of trifluoromethyl and nonafluorobutyl groups by widely accessible silanes under mild conditions. The reactions are completely selective for aliphatic carbon- fluorine bonds in preference to aromatic carbon- fluorine bonds. 8712,2008,3,3,Hydrogen as a renewable and sustainable solution in reducing global fossil fuel consumption,In this paper| hydrogen is considered as a renewable and sustainable solution for reducing global fossil fuel consumption and combating global warming and studied exergetically through a parametric performance analysis. The environmental impact results are then compared with the ones obtained for fossil fuels. In this regard| some exergetic expressions are derived depending primarily upon the exergetic utilization ratios of fossil fuels and hydrogen: the fossil fuel based global waste exergy factor| hydrogen based global exergetic efficiency| fossil fuel based global irreversibility coefficient and hydrogen based global exergetic indicator. These relations incorporate predicted exergetic utilization ratios for hydrogen energy from non-fossil fuel resources such as water| etc.| and are used to investigate whether or not exergetic utilization of hydrogen can significantly reduce the fossil fuel based global irreversibility coefficient (ranging from 1 to +infinity) indicating the fossil fuel consumption and contribute to increase the hydrogen based global exergetic indicator (ranging from 0 to 1) indicating the hydrogen utilization at a certain ratio of fossil fuel utilization. In order to verify all these exergetic expressions| the actual fossil fuel consumption and production data are taken from the literature. Due to the unavailability of appropriate hydrogen data for analysis| it is assumed that the utilization ratios of hydrogen are ranged between 0 and 1. For the verification of these parameters| the variations of fossil fuel based global irreversibility coefficient and hydrogen based global exergetic indicator as the functions of fossil fuel based global waste exergy factor| hydrogen based global exergetic efficiency and exergetic utilization of hydrogen from non-fossil fuels are analyzed and discussed in detail. Consequently| if exergetic utilization ratio of hydrogen from non-fossil fuel sources at a certain exergetic utilization ratio of fossil fuels increases| the fossil fuel based global irreversibility coefficient will decrease and the hydrogen based global exergetic indicator will increase. (C) 2008 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9020,2008,3,4,Hydrogen economy in Taiwan and biohydrogen,This study analyzed how production technology advances and how economic structure reformation affects transition to a hydrogen economy in Taiwan before 2030. A model| called "Taiwan general equilibrium model-energy| for hydrogen (TAIGEM-EH)"| was the forecast tool used to consider steam reforming of natural gas| the biodegradation of biomass and water electrolysis using nuclear power or renewable energies of hydrogen production industries. Owing to increase in the prices of oil and concern for global warming effects| hydrogen will have a 10.3% share in 2030 when demands for hydrogen production could be met if strong technological progress in hydrogen production were made. With reformed economic structure and strong support to progress in production technologies| hydrogen's share can reach 22.1% in 2030 and become the dominating energy source from then onwards. In the four scenarios studied| including developing country with three levels of effort and developed country with strong effort| the biohydrogen production industry can become a main supplier of hydrogen in the market if its technological progress can be competitive to other CO(2)-free alternatives. (c) 2007 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8911,2008,3,3,Hydrogen no longer a high cost solution to global warming: New ideas,This paper contains brief statements about three new low-cost methods of obtaining clean hydrogen in massive amounts. In the first method| new technology for converting solar energy and water to hydrogen at a price of $2.50 for an amount of hydrogen equal in first law energy to that in a gallon of gasoline seems to follow from a company's announcement of their new technology| already working| in one fully industrialized plant| producing electricity at a price corresponding to that from coal. In the second method| pure hydrogen (no accompanying CO2) can be obtained from natural gas and heat. The cost would be a little less than that of the low-cost hydrogen from water decomposition (and avoid storage of hydrogen for the 18 h/day of zero solar light). In the third method| CO2 is extracted from the atmosphere and combined chemically with the low-cost hydrogen to produce methanol. On being used to produce heat or electricity (fuel cell)| CO2 is left over. However| the amount Of CO2| thus added to the atmosphere is just equivalent to the amount removed. The presence of low-cost hydrogen from water means that the resulting methanol will also be of low cost and be a cure for global warming without a radical change of distribution method. (c) 2008 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9082,2008,3,3,Hydrogen production from a fluidized-bed coal gasifier with in situ fixation of CO2 Part I: Numerical model,In order to attempt to eliminate global warming effects| it is highly desirable that new technologies with lower or zero emission of CO2 to the environment are developed. In this work| a high-pressure fluidized-bed coal gasifier for H-2 production with in situ fixation of CO2 is simulated by a comprehensive two-dimensional model. The Eddy Dissipation Concept (EDC) model is first adopted in the pulverized coal gasification model to simultaneously describe the turbulent mixing and detailed chemical kinetics. The developed model is verified with experimental results. The simulated concentrations for the gas product agree well with the experimental data. The simulated distributions for gas temperature and velocity correlate well with the reaction mechanism and experimental phenomena. 8447,2008,5,4,Hydrogeology of the Northern Sea of Okhotsk Coast,The complex characteristics of the main formation factors| the occurrence conditions| and the composition of the groundwaters are considered with a description of the cryogenic and hydrogeological features of the Okhotsk Sea coast from the Urak River mouth in the west to Taigonos Peninsula in the east. It is shown that the geological structure of the inner and outer zones of the Okhotsk-Chukotka volcanogenic belts is a decisive factor in determining the permafrost and hydrogeological conditions in the coastal zone against the background of the uniform climatic conditions along the entire coast. The inner zone of the belt is characterized by the most favorable conditions for the intense water exchange. The regional deep drainage during the Late Pleistocene Cryochron| the subsequent global warming| and the transgression of the Sea of Okhotsk in the initial Holocene were responsible for the formation of the hydrogeochemical zoning in the sedimentary cover of the artesian basins and development of the zone of fracture and fracture-vein chloride brackish and saline waters in the coastal hydrogeological structures. New data indicating the geoecological significance of the defined regularities are presented. 8890,2008,2,4,Hypoxia| low salinity and lowered temperature reduce embryo survival and hatch rates in black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri (Munro| 1949),Embryo survival and hatch rates were measured in black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri exposed to different treatments of dissolved oxygen: hypoxic and normoxic| three salinities: 15| 23 and 35 and two temperatures: 16 and 20 degrees C. Hypoxic conditions (50% saturation) reduced 1 day embryo survival by up to 15% (P < 0.05) compared to embryos held in normoxic (> 80% saturation) conditions. Temperature had no effect on the survival of embryos in these treatments| however| lowered salinity significantly reduced embryo survival at 20 degrees C| but not at 16 degrees C. Mean hatch rates were reduced by 10-28% in hypoxic treatments (P < 0.05) and lowered salinity treatments (P < 0.05). Hatching was delayed by up to 24 h at 16 degrees C and very low (or zero) hatching occurred in hypoxic treatments at salinities of 15 and 23. These results confirm that environmental conditions in estuaries are important factors in determining spawning success of black bream and are discussed in relation to global warming and climate change that are likely to alter the physical conditions in southern Australian estuaries. 8905,2008,4,4,Imaging of Time and Space Variation of Vortex Wind Velocity Fields Using Acoustic Tomography,A technique for monitoring the strong| vortex wind field is much required with the rapid increase in global warming. For the realization of the technique| the acoustic tomography of two-dimensional vortex air flow profile was proposed. which can be reconstructed by arraying approximately 10 pairs of transmitters and receivers in parallel. To show the feasibility of the present method| experimental results of performance evaluation using an indoor simulation system are presented. In particular| the reproducibilities of time and space variations of the vortex wind fields passing through the monitoring region were examined. To achieve the real-time capability| a correction scheme for the error caused by the time lag in the sequential sampling was introduced. As a result. Vortex wind Velocity fields could be reconstructed with a hi||h-speed frame rate while keeping a satisfactory tractability against time and space vortex wind field variations. [DOI: 10.1143/JJAP.47.3940] 8547,2008,2,4,Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park| USA,We provide a century-scale view of small-mammal responses to global warming| without confounding effects of land-use change| by repeating Grinnell's early-20th century survey across a 3000-meter-elevation gradient that spans Yosemite National Park| California| USA. Using occupancy modeling to control for variation in detectability| we show substantial (similar to 500 meters on average) upward changes in elevational limits for half of 28 species monitored| consistent with the observed similar to 3 degrees C increase in minimum temperatures. Formerly low-elevation species expanded their ranges and high-elevation species contracted theirs| leading to changed community composition at mid- and high elevations. Elevational replacement among congeners changed because species' responses were idiosyncratic. Though some high-elevation species are threatened| protection of elevation gradients allows other species to respond via migration. 8678,2008,2,4,Impact of a tropical cyclone on biogeochemistry of the central Arabian Sea,Remotely sensed data are combined with shipboard measurements to investigate biogeochemical changes caused by a moderate tropical cyclone in the central Arabian Sea in December 1998. The sea surface temperature decreased by similar to 4 degrees C| whereas surface nitrate and chlorophyll concentrations increased by > 5 mu M and up to 4 mg m(-3)| respectively| over a large area affected by the cyclone. Nutrient enrichment in the surface layer of the cyclone-affected zone is estimated to have supported a new production of similar to 4.2 Tg C| approximately 5% of the annual organic carbon export to the deep sea ( beyond the continental margin) for the entire Arabian Sea. Entrainment of nitrous oxide from the thermocline led to more than doubling of its concentration in the mixed layer. The cyclone also resulted in an increase in nitrous oxide inventory within the oxygen minimum zone. Our results imply that| should there be an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones as a result of global warming| as projected in some recent reports| carbon production and respiration| and redox processes within the oxygen minimum zones| such as the production of nitrous oxide through nitrification/denitrification| and of molecular nitrogen through denitrification/anaerobic ammonium oxidation| may be significantly impacted. 9149,2008,2,3,Impact of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on some elements of microclimate and physiology of locally grown maize,Higher atmospheric CO2 concentration may influence positively plant production once the substrate for photosynthesis and gradient increase between the ambient air and mesophyll cells. Plants respond not only to change in surrounding CO2 concentration| but to modifications of their micro-environment. Modelling approach was applied to investigate the relation of plants and some elements of microclimate to increased CO2 levels. Other influences of global warming included in the study indirectly by running warmer and dryer sample days than the average measured locally during the past decades. Depending on growth in CO2 concentration increases in inside canopy air temperatures were between 0.12 and 0.37 degrees C. The warmer plants could have less effective transpiration cooling resulted from higher stomatal resistances. It decreased the water vapour pressure of the air inside the plant stand. In spite of partly stomatal closure| abundant carbon-dioxide concentration raised the intensity of photosynthesis. However if elevated CO2 concentration takes place| the other additional influencing factors as warming| change in precipitation amount and its distribution| plant adaptation processes etc. may offset the production benefits of increasing level of CO2. More detailed investigations are needed to complete our imaginations about future consequences of possible climate variations| mainly in local level. 8872,2008,4,3,Impact of atmospheric small-scale fluctuations on climate sensitivity,Climate change scenarios are based on numerical models with finite spatial and temporal resolutions. The impact of unresolved processes is parameterized without taking the variability induced by subscale processes into account. This drawback could lead to an over-/underestimation of the climate sensitivity. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of small-scale atmospheric fluctuations on the modeled climate sensitivity to increased CO(2) concentration. Using a complex coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) climate response experiments with enhanced small-scale fluctuations are performed. Our results show that the strength of the global warming due to a CO2 doubling depends on the representation of small-scale fluctuations. Reducing the horizontal diffusion by a factor of 3 leads to an increase of the equilibrium climate sensitivity by 13%. If white noise is added to the small scales| the climate sensitivity tends to weaken. The largest changes in responses occur in the upper troposphere. 1234,2008,2,4,Impact of bleaching stress on the function of the oxygen evolving complex of zooxanthellae from scleractinian corals,Global climate change is leading to the rise of ocean temperatures and is triggering mass coral bleaching events on reefs around the world. The expulsion of the symbiotic dinoflagellate algae is believed to occur as a result of damage to the photosynthetic apparatus of these symbionts| although the specific site of initial impact is yet to be conclusively resolved. Here| the sensitivity of the oxygen evolving complex (OEC) to bleaching stress was studied as well as its natural variation between seasons. The artificial electron donor| diphenyl carbazide (DPC)| was added to cultured| freshly isolated and expelled (bleaching treatments only) zooxanthellae suspensions. Chl a fluorescence and oxygen production measurements showed that upon addition of DPC| no restoration of diminished photochemical efficiency occurred under control or bleaching conditions. This result was consistent between 12 h and 5 d bleaching treatments on Pocilloporadamicornis| indicating that the OEC is not the primary site of damage| and that zooxanthellae expulsion from the host is a nonselective process with respect to the functioning of the OEC. Further experiments measuring fast induction curves (FICs) revealed that in both summer and winter| the temperature when OEC function was lost occurred between 7 degrees C and 14 degrees C above the sea surface temperature. FIC and oxygen production measurements of P. damicornis during exposure to bleaching stress demonstrated that the thermotolerance of the OEC increased above the temperature of the bleaching treatment over a 4 h period. This finding indicates that the OEC has the capacity to acclimate between seasons and remains functional at temperatures well above bleaching thresholds. 1233,2008,2,4,Impact of climate change on long-term zooplankton biomass in the upwelling region of the Gulf of Guinea,We investigated long-term changes in coastal zooplankton in the upwelling region in the Gulf of Guinea| 1969 - 1992| in relation to climatic and biotic factors. We considered the role of hydrographic and climatic factors| i.e. sea surface temperature (SST)| salinity| sea level pressure| windfield| and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)| in the long-term variation of zooplankton in a multiple regression analysis| along with the abundance of Sardinella. Annual variation in zooplankton biomass was cyclical| with the annual peak occurring during the major upwelling season| July-September. Over the 24-year period| there was a downward trend in zooplankton biomass (equivalent to 6.33 ml per 1000 m(3) per year). The decomposed trend in SST during the major upwelling revealed gradual warming of surface waters. This trend was believed to be the main influence on the abundance of the large copepod Calanoides carinatus (sensitive to temperatures above 23 degrees C)| which appears in the coastal waters only during the major upwelling season. The warming trend associated with global climate change could affect zooplankton community structure| especially during the major upwelling season. Global warming coupled with "top-down" (predation) control by Sardinella might be responsible for the long-term decline in zooplankton biomass in the upwelling region of the Gulf of Guinea. 1336,2008,2,3,Impact of climate change on migratory birds: community reassembly versus adaptation,Aim Species can respond to global climate change by range shifts or by phenotypic adaptation. At the community level| range shifts lead to a turnover of species| i.e. community reassembly. In contrast| phenotypic adaptation allows species to persist in situ| conserving community composition. So far| community reassembly and adaptation have mostly been studied separately. In nature| however| both processes take place simultaneously. In migratory birds| climate change has been shown to result in both exchange of species and adaptation of migratory behaviour. The aim of our study is to predict the impact of global climate change on migratory bird communities and to assess the extent to which reassembly and adaptation may contribute to alterations. Location Europe. Methods We analysed the relationship between current climate and the proportion of migratory species across bird assemblages in Europe. The magnitude of community reassembly was measured using spatial variation in the proportion of potentially migratory species. Adaptation was inferred from spatial variation in the proportion of potentially migratory species that actually migrate at a specific site. These spatial relationships were used to make temporal predictions of changes in migratory species under global climate change. Results According to our models| increasing winter temperature is expected to lead to declines in the proportion of migratory species| whereas increasing spring temperature and decreasing spring precipitation may lead to increases. Changes in winter and spring temperature are expected to cause mainly adaptation in migratory activity| while changes in spring precipitation may result in both changes in the proportion of potentially migratory species and adaptation of migratory activity. Main conclusions Under current climate change forecasts| changes in the proportion of migratory species will be modest and the communities of migratory birds in Europe are projected to be altered through adaptation of migratory activity rather than through exchange of species. 9183,2008,2,4,Impact of climate on eel populations of the Northern Hemisphere,Glass eel abundances are declining worldwide| This has mostly been attributed to direct impacts of human activities such as overfishing or habitat loss and degradation| whilst the potential influence of changes in oceanic conditions has received less attention. Eel are characterized by a complex and still enigmatic life cycle that includes a trans-oceanic spawning and larval migration. The apparent synchrony in the decline of eel populations worldwide suggests that the oceanic mechanisms involved are similar for all populations. We analyse the relationships between oceanic conditions in eel spawning areas and glass eel recruitment success of the 3 most commercially important species of the genus Anguilla: A. anguilla| A. rostrata| and A. japonica. We provide evidence that the survival of eel larvae is strongly correlated with food availability during their early life stages. Over the last 4 decades| changes in the marine production related to global warming may have led to the decline of European| American and Japanese eel populations. In the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans| the shifts in the temperature regime detected in the late 1970s were followed by shifts in the recruitment regime of glass eel for the 3 species. The decrease in primary production through climate-driven processes has therefore affected the recruitment of eel populations. 8866,2008,3,4,Impact of geo-engineering on the ion composition of the stratosphere,A remedy called "geo-engineering solution'' has been recently proposed by some scientists to handle the global warming problem through injection of sulfates high aloft into the stratosphere. However| this idea may have some other side impacts. We have investigated the perturbation caused by geo-engineering solution on the stratospheric charged species using a coupled neutral-ion photochemical model. Model calculations indicate additional production of sulfuric acid immediately after the injection which further leads to increased abundance of heavy negative ion family by several orders of magnitude over the ambient. After 2 months| most of the H(2)SO(4) vapor condensed to H(2)SO(4) aerosols and the density of charged aerosol increases several folds and the effect spread further in the tropics. The perturbation in ionic species spread globally after about 1 year but became weaker in magnitude. The ion perturbation has implications on the electrical properties of the atmospheric medium. 8470,2008,2,3,Impact of Historical Climate Change on the Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle,Climate change over the last several decades is suggested to cause a decrease in the magnitude of the uptake of CO(2) by the Southern Ocean (Le Quere et al.). In this study| the atmospheric fields from NCEP R1 for the years 1948-2003 are used to drive an ocean biogeochemical model to probe how changes in the heat and freshwater fluxes and in the winds affect the Southern Ocean's uptake of carbon. Over this period| the model simulations herein show that the increases in heat and freshwater fluxes drive a net increase in Southern Ocean uptake ( south of 40 S) while the increases in wind stresses drive a net decrease in uptake. The total Southern Ocean response is nearly identical with the simulation without climate change because the heat and freshwater flux response is approximately both equal and opposite to the wind stress response. It is also shown that any change in the Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake is always opposed by a much larger change in the natural carbon air-sea exchange. For the 1948-2003 period| the changes in the natural carbon cycle dominate the Southern Ocean carbon uptake response to climate change. However| it is shown with a simple box model that when atmospheric CO(2) levels exceed the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO(2)) of the upwelled Circumpolar Deep Water (approximate to 450 mu atm) the Southern Ocean uptake response will be dominated by the changes in anthropogenic carbon uptake. Therefore| the suggestion that the Southern Ocean carbon uptake is a positive feedback to global warming is only a transient response that will change to a negative feedback in the near future if the present climate trend continues. Associated with the increased outgassing of carbon from the natural carbon cycle was a reduction in the aragonite saturation state of the high-latitude Southern Ocean (south of 60 degrees S). In the simulation with just wind stress changes| the reduction in the high-latitude Southern Ocean aragonite saturation state (approximate to 0.2) was comparable to the magnitude of the decline in the aragonite saturation state over the last 4 decades because of rising atmospheric CO2 levels (approximate to 0.2). The simulation showed that climate change could significantly impact aragonite saturation state in the Southern Ocean. 8941,2008,2,4,Impact of ice-albedo feedback on hemispheric scale sea-ice melting rates in the Antarctic using Multi-frequency Scanning Microwave Radiometer data,The sea-ice cover in the polar regions is one of the most expansive and seasonal geophysical parameters on the earth's surface. The presence or absence of sea-ice affects the atmosphere and the ocean| and therefore the climate in many ways. In this study we have used the Multi-frequency Scanning Microwave Radiometer (MSMR) brightness temperature data over the Antarctic/Southern Ocean region to calculate the weekly sea-ice extents| during the melting phase from August 1999 to March 2000 to quantitatively estimate the melting rates of sea-ice on a hemispheric scale. Compared to the melting rates based on the seasonal cycle of the solar irradiance| the MSMR-estimated melting rate remains less until the beginning of October and then rapidly increases to its peak value by the end of December. The observed melting rate behaviour indicates that apart from the seasonal cycle of solar irradiance| it is controlled by other mechanisms like the ice-albedo feedback. The present study estimates the feedback factor| response time and acceleration in the melting rate| which are important towards a better quantitative understanding of the future of Antarctic sea-ice variability| and the climate trends in the context of global warming. 8501,2008,2,4,Impact of increasing mean air temperature on the development of rice and red rice,The objective of this study was to assess the development response of cultivated rice and red rice to different increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures| in Santa Maria| Rio Grande do Sul State| Brazil. One hundred years climate scenarios of temperatures 0| +1| +2| +3| +4| and +5 degrees C| with symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures were created| using the LARS-WG Weather Generator| and a 1969-2003 database. Nine cultivated rice genotypes (IRGA 421| IRGA 416| IRGA 417| IRGA 420| BRS 7 TAIM| BR-IRGA 409| EPAGRI 109| EEA 406 and a hybrid)| and two red rice biotypes (awned black hull-ABHRR| and awned yellow hull-AYHRR) were used. The dates of panicle differentiation (R1)| anthesis (R4)| and all grains with brown hulls (R9) were estimated with a nonlinear simulation model. Overall| the duration of the emergence-R1 phase decreased| whereas the duration of the R1-R4 and R4-R9 phases most often increased| as temperature increased in the climate change scenarios. The simulated rice development response to elevated temperature was not the same| when the increase in minimum and maximum temperature was symmetric or asymmetric. 8823,2008,3,3,Impact of organic farming on global warming - recent scientific knowledge,The review of recent literature on the contribution of organic farming to global warming shows different results. The inhomogeneous results are reasoned in different focuses of the studies looking at different products| system borders or production conditions and production intensities. In summary of the assessed studies can be stated that organic farming emits lower amounts of green house gases (GHG) than comparable conventional systems. Higher area bound GHG emissions in conventional agriculture are mainly reasoned in farm imported feedstuffs that are to a significant amount purchased from overseas. The consumption of products from energy intensive pesticide and fertiliser production is increasing the GHG emissions further. Higher yields per animal or per hectare unit are usually not able to compensate for these negative impacts. Therefore it can be concluded that organic farming is more climate friendly than normal conventional farming| also when product bound GHG loads are calculated. Whereas the emissions of integrated conventional systems are equal to organic systems. In the integrated systems reduced pesticide consumption| use of farm produced resources (e.g. feedstuff| livestock manure) and set asides are advantageous. GHG-balances of organic farming could be improved further by higher area yields or by reduction of energy consumption. Global warming potential of all farming farm systems can be optimised and reduced in future. Renewable energy systems| use of local resources and progress in management skills (increase of input-output relations: feeding| energy-use| nutrients) are usually underdeveloped in practice. Yield increases with moderate increase in mechanisation normally lead to reductions in global warming potential per unit of agricultural product. 8864,2008,2,2,Impact of rainfall| liming| nitrogen (N)| phosphorus (P2O5)| potassium (K2O)| calcium (CaO)| magnesium (MgO) mineral fertilization on triticale (x Triticosecale Wittmack) yield in a monoculture in Hungary,The natural climate variability may be masked by the anthropogenic made global warming| today. With a warmer climate| drought and excess rainfall conditions could become more frequent and longer lasting. The potential increase of the hazards result stresses and high costs in cereal production. For this reason a long-term study was conducted on a sandy acidic lessivated brown forest soil; WRB: Haplic Luvisol in the 44 year old Nyirlugos Field Trial (NYFT) in a Hungarian fragile agroecosystem in Nyirseg region (N: 470 41' 60| and E: 220 2' 80) on triticale (x Triticosecale Wittm.) yield between 1999 and 2006. In 1962| at the trial set up the soil had the following agrochemical properties: pH (H2O) 5.9| pH (KCl) 4.7| hydrolytic acidity 8.4| hy 10.3| humus 0.7%| total N 34 mg kg(-1)| ammonlactate (AL) soluble-P2O5 43 mg kg(-1)| AL-K2O 60 mg kg(-1) in the plowed (0-25 cm) layer. The trial consisted of 32 x 4 = 128 plots in randomised block design. The gross plot size was 10 x 5 = 50 m(2). The average fertilizer rates in kg ha(-1) year(-1) were nitrogen 75| phosphorus 90 (P2O5)| potassium 90 (K2O)| calcium 437.5 (CaCO3) and magnesium 140 (MgCO3). The groundwater table had at a depth of 2-3 m below the surface. During drought conditions the respective yield of the control areas was -25% less than for average years. The application N alone or NP and NK treatments led to yield reduction of -19.7%| while that of NPK| NPKCa| NPKMg and NPKCaMg caused an -28.3% yield drop. In the wet years the yield decreased by -22.2% on the unfertilized soils; in case of the N| NP and NK nutrition the yield dropped with an -14.1%; and the yield increased at 13.8% on NPK| NPKCa| NPKMg and NPKCaMg treated plots. Yield dropped in the very wettest year -43.1% on control soils; -39.3% of N| NP and NK loadings| and -35.8% on NPK| NPKCa| NPKMg and NPKCaMg treatments to those in the average year. The relationship between rainfall quantity during the vegetation period and N| P| K| Ca| Mg nutrition and yield was characterised by polynomial correlation (control: R = 0.7212***| N: R = 0.7410***| NP: R = 0.6452***| NK: R = 0.6998***| NPK: R = 0.5555***| NPKCa: R = 0.5578***| NPKMg: R = 0.4869**| NPKCaMg: R = 0.4341**). However| total regression coefficients ranged from 0.43 to 0.74 in depence on the different nutrient application. Maximum yields of 5.8-6.0 t ha(-1) were achieved in the rainfall range of 580-620 mm. At values above and below this domain of the precipitation the grain yield reduced quadratically. So| it can be stated that both drought and excess rainfall conditions resulted dramatically significant negative effects between fertilization (N| P| K| Ca| Mg) and triticale yield. 9076,2008,2,4,Impact of vegetation types on surface temperature change,The impact of different surface vegetations on long-term surface temperature change is estimated by subtracting reanalysis trends in monthly surface temperature anomalies from observation trends over the last four decades. This is done using two reanalyses| namely| the 40-yr ECMWF (ERA-40) and NCEP-NCAR I (NNR)| and two observation datasets| namely| Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). The basis of the observation minus reanalysis (OMR) approach is that the NNR reanalysis surface fields| and to a lesser extent the ERA-40| are insensitive to surface processes associated with different vegetation types and their changes because the NNR does not use surface observations over land| whereas ERA-40 only uses surface temperature observations indirectly| in order to initialize soil temperature and moisture. As a result| the OMR trends can provide an estimate of surface effects on the observed temperature trends missing in the reanalyses. The OMR trends obtained from observation minus NNR show a strong and coherent sensitivity to the independently estimated surface vegetation from normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The correlation between the OMR trend and the NDVI indicates that the OMR trend decreases with surface vegetation| with a correlation < -0.5| indicating that there is a stronger surface response to global warming in and regions| whereas the OMR response is reduced in highly vegetated areas. The OMR trend averaged over the desert areas (0 < NDVI < 0.1) shows a much larger increase of temperature (similar to 0.4 degrees C decade(-1)) than over tropical forest areas (NDVI > 0.4) where the OMR trend is nearly zero. Areas of intermediate vegetation (0.1 < NDVI < 0.4)| which are mostly found over midlatitudes| reveal moderate OMR trends (approximately 0.1 degrees-0.3 degrees C decade(-1)). The OMR trends are also very sensitive to the seasonal vegetation change. While the OMR trends have little seasonal dependence over deserts and tropical forests| whose vegetation state remains rather constant throughout the year| the OMR trends over the midlatitudes| in particular Europe and North America| exhibit strong seasonal variation in response to the NDVI fluctuations associated with deciduous vegetation. The OMR trend rises up approximately to 0.2 degrees-0.3 degrees C decade(-1) in winter and early spring when the vegetation cover is low| and is only 0.1 degrees C decade(-1) in summer and early autumn with high vegetation. However| the Asian inlands (Russia| northern China with Tibet| and Mongolia) do not show this strong OMR variation despite their midlatitude location| because of the relatively permanent aridity of these regions. 8578,2008,2,4,Impacts of climate change on lakes and reservoirs dynamics and restoration policies,Meteorological-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes and their water quality; these impacts can be hydrologic| thermal| hydraulic| chemical| biochemical| or ecological. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (California-Nevada) was investigated here as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within lakes. The already published trends of meteorological variables were used to assess the effects of global warming on Lake Tahoe dynamics. Records from the period 1969-2002 show that Lake Tahoe has became warmer and more stable. A series of simulation years into the future (i.e.| 2000-2040) was established using flows| loads| and meteorology data sets for the period 1994-2004. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable| and mixing is reduced. Possible changes in water quality because of global warming are discussed through inference| although these are not specifically simulated. Many existing problems may be exacerbated due to climate change| yet extreme uncertainty depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change. Therefore| shifts in water quality and quantity due to climate change should be integrated into contemporary planning and management in an adaptive manner| and the research and development of impact assessment methodology should focus on approaches that can handle extreme uncertainty. The general alternatives for lake management due to climate change are discussed. Depending on the specific case| further intensive research is suggested to restore lake water quality. 8883,2008,2,3,Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude,The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude| in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics| although relatively small in magnitude| is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast| species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima| so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar| patterns| suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that| in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation| the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics| where biological diversity is also greatest. 1227,2008,2,4,Impacts of future climate change and emissions reductions on nitrogen and sulfur deposition over the United States,Potential impacts of global climate change and emissions on the total nitrogen and sulfur deposition over the US are investigated. Three future years' annual average deposition rates (i.e.| 2049-2051) are compared with historic ones (i.e.| 2000-2002) accounting for existing US and individual State's emission regulations and strategies. Impacts of global climate change alone on regional nitrogen and sulfur deposition are small compared to impacts from emission control-related reductions for the projections used in this study. The combined effect of climate change and emission reductions is a decrease in the annual average nitrogen and sulfur deposition over the US. Reduced nitrogen species dominate oxidized nitrogen deposition in the future. Spatial distribution plots for both components show lower deposition rates in the future mainly in the middle and eastern States where reductions in NO(x) and SO(2) emissions are more pronounced. 1084,2008,2,3,Impacts of Global Warming on Hydrological Cycles in the Asian Monsoon Region,The hydrologic changes and the impact of these changes constitute a fundamental global-warning-related concern. Faced with threats to human life and natural ecosystems| such as droughts| floods| and soil erosion| water resource planners must increasingly make future risk assessments. Though hydrological predictions associated with the global climate change are already being performed| mainly through the rise of GCMs| coarse spatial resolution and uncertain physical processes limit the representation of terrestrial water/energy interactions and the| variability in such systems its the Asian monsoon. Despite numerous studies| the regional responses of hydrologic changes resulting front climate change remains inconclusive. In this paper| an attempt at dynamical downscaling of future hydrologic projection under global climate change in Asia is addressed. The authors conducted present and future Asian regional climate simulations which were nested in the result's of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments. The regional climate model could capture the general simulated features of the AGCM. Also| some regional phenomena such as orographic precipitation| which did not appear in the outcome of the AGCM simulation| were successfully produced. Under global warning. the increase of water vapor associated with the warmed air temperature was projected. It was projected to bring more abundant water vapor to the southern portions of India and the Bay of Bengal| and to enhance precipitation especially over the mountainous regions| the western part of India and the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. As a result of the changes in the synoptic flow patterns and precipitation under global warming| the increases of annual mean precipitation and surface runoff were projected in many regions of Asia. However| both the positive and negative changes of seasonal surface runoff were projected in some regions which will increase the flood risk and cause a mismatch between water demand and water availability in the agricultural season. 8900,2008,2,4,Impacts of macroalgal spores on the dynamics of adult macroalgae in a eutrophic estuary: High versus low hydrodynamic seasons and long-term simulations for global warming scenarios,A model describing macroalgal early life stages and adult dynamics was used to quantify the effects of non-adult forms on the productivity of adult macroalgae in a eutrophic estuary. Predictions indicate that during years with mild winters and low rainfall| spring blooms will occur at the expense of the growth and reproduction of overwintering adults and without the contribution of the spore bank. In these circumstances| there is a positive correlation between the intensity of the blooms and the biomass of overwintering adults until a maximum threshold value. On the contrary| in years with high rainfall and low or inexistent biomass of overwintering adults| the onset of adult's growth depends on the biomass of viable dormant spores| the growing season occurs later and adult productivity is very limited. Long-term predictions for climate change scenarios suggest that| in general| global warming will have adverse affects on Ulva intestinalis productivity| with the adults being more affected than the early life stages. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8485,2008,2,4,Impacts of thermohaline circulation shutdown in the twenty-first century,We discuss climate impacts of a hypothetical shutdown of the thermohaline circulation ('THC') in the 2050s| using the climate model HadCM3. Previous studies have generally focussed on the effects on pre-industrial climate. Here we take into account increased greenhouse gas concentrations according to an IS92a emissions scenario. THC shutdown causes cooling of the Northern Hemisphere of -1.7 degrees C| locally stronger. Over western Europe cooling is strong enough for a return to pre-industrial conditions and a significant increase in the occurrence of frost and snow cover. Global warming restricts the increase in sea ice cover after THC shutdown. This lessens the amount of cooling over NW Europe| but increases it over North America| compared to pre-industrial shutdown. This reflects a non-linearity in the local temperature response to THC shutdown. Precipitation change after THC shutdown is generally opposite to that caused by global warming| except in western and southern Europe| where summer drying is enhanced| and in Central America and southeast Asia| where precipitation is also further reduced. Local rise in sea level after THC shutdown can be large along Atlantic coasts (+/- 25 cm)| which would add to the rise caused by global warming. Potentially rapid THC shutdown adds to the range of uncertainty of projected future climate change. 8692,2008,3,1,Implications of "peak oil'' for atmospheric CO(2) and climate,Unconstrained CO(2) emission from fossil fuel burning has been the dominant cause of observed anthropogenic global warming. The amounts of "proven'' and potential fossil fuel reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless of the true values| society has flexibility in the degree to which it chooses to exploit these reserves| especially unconventional fossil fuels and those located in extreme or pristine environments. If conventional oil production peaks within the next few decades| it may have a large effect on future atmospheric CO(2) and climate change| depending upon subsequent energy choices. Assuming that proven oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the Energy Information Administration| and recent trends are toward lower estimates| we show that it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO(2) from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100| provided that emissions from coal| unconventional fossil fuels| and land use are constrained. Coal-fired power plants without sequestration must be phased out before midcentury to achieve this CO(2) limit. It is also important to "stretch'' conventional oil reserves via energy conservation and efficiency| thus averting strong pressures to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels while clean technologies are being developed for the era "beyond fossil fuels''. We argue that a rising price on carbon emissions is needed to discourage conversion of the vast fossil resources into usable reserves| and to keep CO(2) beneath the 450 ppm ceiling. 9258,2008,3,4,Implications of India's biofuel policies for food| water and the poor,Increasing consensus about the end of cheap oil| the consequences of global warming and the need for rural development are catalyzing the expansion of biofuels like ethanol and biodiesel. While most nations are promoting the expansion of conventional crops| India's strategy for biofuels is to promote Jatropha curcas| a drought-tolerant| perennial crop with little prior commercial track record. The aim of this paper is three-fold. (1) To compare the characteristics of various crops with their potential as biofuels in order to assess the relative advantages and disadvantages of Jatropha curcas. (2) To analyze the implications of current biofuel policies for food supply| agricultural water demand and the rural poor. (3) To highlight briefly some alternative strategies that can overcome drawbacks in the current strategy. One conclusion is that although Jatropha curcas has a low water requirement| which is an important benefit| it has several other disadvantages. Another recommendation that emerges from this paper is that biofuel policies should also focus on short-duration| multi-purpose and proven drought-tolerant crops like sweet sorghum that can be adopted by small landholders while wasteland rehabilitation policies should focus on broader array of options| which can provide greater direct benefits to the rural poor. 9195,2008,2,4,Importance of genetic diversity in eelgrass Zostera marina for its resilience to global warming,Effects of global warming on marine ecosystems are far less understood than they are in terrestrial environments. Macrophyte-based coastal ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to global warming| because they often lack species redundancy. We tested whether summer heat waves have negative effects on an ecologically important ecosystem engineer| the eelgrass Zostera marina L.| and whether high genotypic diversity may provide resilience in the face of climatic extremes. In a mesocosm experiment| we manipulated genotypic diversity of eelgrass patches fully crossed with water temperature (control vs. temperature stress) over 5 mo. We found a strong negative effect of warming and a positive effect of genotypic diversity on shoot densities of eelgrass. These results suggest that eelgrass meadows and associated ecosystem services will be negatively affected by predicted increases in summer temperature extremes. Genotypic diversity may provide critical response diversity for maintaining seagrass ecosystem functioning| and for adaptation to environmental change. 1090,2008,4,4,Improved Estimation of Soil Organic Carbon Storage Uncertainty Using First-Order Taylor Series Approximation,Assessment of soil organic C (SOC) stocks is important for monitoring the effect of land use change in the C cycle and for formulation of C sequestration strategies in the context of global climate change. Discrepancies among the recent global SOC estimates by different researchers underscore the importance of precise estimation of the uncertainty associated with the SOC stocks. A method was recently proposed to estimate the SOC storage uncertainty using the Taylor series of approximations. Here we show that the accuracy of SOC storage uncertainty can be improved by incorporating the covariance among the input variables. Measurement of input variables from independent samples or use of an incomplete model leads to either over-or underestimation of the SOC storage uncertainty. The application of the method to an experimental data set indicated that ignoring covariance would lead to a substantial overestimate of the uncertainty. 9128,2008,4,4,Improving predictions of summer climate change in the United States,Across vast| agriculturally intensive regions of the United States| the spread in predictions of summer temperature and soil moisture under global warming is curiously elevated in current climate models. Some models show modest warming of 2-3C degrees and little drying or slight moistening by the 22nd century| while at the other extreme are simulations with warming as large as 7-8C degrees and 20-40% reductions in soil moisture. We show this region of large spread arises from differences in simulations of snow albedo feedback. During winter and early spring| models with strong snow albedo feedback exhibit large reductions in snowpack and hence water storage. This water deficit persists in summer soil moisture| with reduced evapotranspiration yielding warmer temperatures. Comparison of simulated feedback strength to observations of the feedback from the current climate's seasonal cycle suggests the inter-model differences are excessive. At the same time| the multi-model mean feedback strength agrees reasonably well with the observed value. We estimate that if the next generation of models were brought into line with observations of snow albedo feedback| the unusually wide divergence in simulations of summer warming and drying over the US would shrink by roughly one third to one half. 8487,2008,3,4,Improving the sustainability of the production of biodiesel from oilseed rape in the UK,Owing to concerns about energy security and because of increased environmental awareness| the biofuel industry is expanding worldwide. it is therefore extremely important to be able to quantify the sustainability of biofuels in order to determine their benefits over using conventional fossil fuel derived transport fuels. This study investigates the total energy requirement and global warming potential (GWP) of the production of biodiesel from oilseed rape in the UK| using life cycle analyses. Large- and small-scale productions are compared and the sensitivity of these environmental impacts to production variables investigated. Possible changes to the processes are considered| with a view to reduce the energy requirement and global warming potential. This research shows that the scale of the production of biodiesel from oilseed rape in the UK| and the transport involved in the various stages of manufacture| has little effect on its global warming potential. It is also shown that if the rape meal and glycerol were combusted in combined heat and power plants| and the rate of application of nitrogenous fertiliser were reduced from 211 kg/ha to 100 kg/ha| the energy requirement and global warming potential savings from using biodiesel rather than ultra low sulphur diesel would increase dramatically| to 170% and 120%| respectively| on a basis of equivalent net energy content. (c) 2008 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8953,2008,2,3,In hot water: zooplankton and climate change,An overview is provided of the observed and potential future responses of zooplankton communities to global warming. I begin by describing the importance of zooplankton in ocean ecosystems and the attributes that make them sensitive beacons of climate change. Global warming may have even greater repercussions for marine ecosystems than for terrestrial ecosystems| because temperature influences water column stability| nutrient enrichment| and the degree of new production| and thus the abundance| size composition| diversity| and trophic efficiency of zooplankton. Pertinent descriptions of physical changes in the ocean in response to climate change are given as a prelude to a detailed discussion of observed impacts of global warming on zooplankton. These manifest as changes in the distribution of individual species and assemblages| in the timing of important life-cycle events| and in abundance and community structure. The most illustrative case studies| where climate has had an obvious| tangible impact on zooplankton and substantial ecosystem consequences| are presented. Changes in the distribution and phenology of zooplankton are faster and greater than those observed for terrestrial groups. Relevant projected changes in ocean conditions are then presented| followed by an exploration of potential future changes in zooplankton communities from the perspective of different modelling approaches. Researchers have used a range of modelling approaches on individual species and functional groups forced by output from climate models under future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. I conclude by suggesting some potential future directions in climate change research for zooplankton| viz. the use of richer zooplankton functional groups in ecosystem models; greater research effort in tropical systems; investigating climate change in conjunction with other human impacts; and a global zooplankton observing system. 9078,2008,3,4,In-field greenhouse gas emissions from cookstoves in rural Mexican households,The majority of estimates of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with changes from traditional to improved cookstoves in developing countries come from water-boiling tests (WBTs) conducted in simulated kitchens. Little is known about the bias in these estimates relative to typical stove use by residents in rural communities. To assess this bias| the reductions in emissions as a result of installation of an improved wood-burning "Patsari" stove were quantified in both simulated kitchens and field conditions in eight homes with open fire stoves and 13 homes with Patsari stoves in Purepecha communities of Michoacan| Mexico. The results demonstrate that nominal combustion efficiencies (NCEs) of open fire cookstoves were significantly lower (p<0.001) in rural homes during daily cooking activities (89.7 +/- 2.0%) compared to WBTs in simulated kitchens (94.2 +/- 0.5%)| which results in almost a doubling of the products on incomplete combustion (PICs) emitted. Since emissions from the rural residential sector are important in the modeling of atmospheric trace greenhouse gas concentrations in areas that rely on solid fuel use for primary energy provision| if these open fires reflect conditions in other areas of the world| substantial underestimation of emissions from open fires may be present in current emission databases. Conversely| NCEs for the improved Patsari stoves were significantly higher (p<0.01) in rural homes during daily cooking activities (92.3 +/- 1.3%) compared to during WBTs in simulated kitchens (87.2 +/- 4.3%)| as WBTs do not reflect cooking activities in rural homes. Thus the Patsari emits 25% less PICs per kg fuelwood used than the open fire| and carbon emission reductions of Patsari and similar improved stoves are also likely underestimated. Finally| in addition to a reduction in overall particulate emissions for rural homes during daily activities| the ratio of organic carbon (OC) to elemental carbon (EC) within the aerosol fraction decreased between the open fire and improved Patsari stoves. While the overall EC contribution for the brick Patsari was reduced| the fraction of EC increased relative to OC| which makes the overall warming implication more ambiguous given current uncertainties in warming and cooling potentials of these fractions. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1203,2008,2,4,Incorporating climate change in water planning,Population increases and municipal and recreational uses| as well as growing uncertainties about the effects of global climate change| call for a new approach to water use and water resource management. Two powerful tools-climate change risk assessment and total water management-can be used to determine the vulnerability of water management systems to climate change. These tools can also be used to drive the development of integrated water management strategies and infrastructure to provide water supplies that are more resilient to the effects of climate change. One approach for assessing the risks of climate change to water systems is to use a dual analytical framework known as the threshold-scenario risk assessment. The framework comprises two parts: the more qualitative threshold risk assessment approach and the quantitative scenario risk assessment approach. This article provides tools| resources| examples| and new| holistic solutions that that can be used to manage both the built and natural portions of the water cycle. Water professionals will find this approach more effective than considering the components separately when addressing the challenges posed by global climate change. 9013,2008,2,4,Increased moisture and methanogenesis contribute to reduced methane oxidation in elevated CO2 soils,Awareness of global warming has stimulated research on environmental controls of soil methane (CH4) consumption and the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on the terrestrial CH4 sink. In this study| factors impacting soil CH4 consumption were investigated using laboratory incubations of soils collected at the Free Air Carbon Transfer and Storage I site in the Duke Forest| NC| where plots have been exposed to ambient (370 mu L L-1) or elevated (ambient+200 mu L L-1) CO2 since August 1996. Over 1 year| nearly 90% of the 360 incubations showed net CH4 consumption| confirming that CH4-oxidizing (methanotrophic) bacteria were active. Soil moisture was significantly (p < 0.01) higher in the 25-30 cm layer of elevated CO2 soils over the length of the study| but soil moisture was equal between CO2 treatments in shallower soils. The increased soil moisture corresponded to decreased net CH4 oxidation| as elevated CO2 soils also oxidized 70% less CH4 at the 25-30 cm depth compared to ambient CO2 soils| while CH4 consumption was equal between treatments in shallower soils. Soil moisture content predicted (p < 0.05) CH4 consumption in upper layers of ambient CO2 soils| but this relationship was not significant in elevated CO2 soils at any depth| suggesting that environmental factors in addition to moisture were influencing net CH4 oxidation under elevated CO2. More than 6% of the activity assays showed net CH4 production| and of these| 80% contained soils from elevated CO2 plots. In addition| more than 50% of the CH4-producing flasks from elevated CO2 sites contained deeper (25-30 cm) soils. These results indicate that subsurface (25 cm+) CH4 production contributes to decreased net CH4 consumption under elevated CO2 in otherwise aerobic soils. 9117,2008,2,4,Increased runoff from melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet: A response to global warming,The authors attribute significantly increased Greenland summer warmth and Greenland Ice Sheet melt and runoff since 1990 to global warming. Southern Greenland coastal and Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures were uncorrelated between the 1960s and early 1990s but were significantly positively correlated thereafter. This relationship appears to have been modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation| whose summer index was significantly ( negatively) correlated with southern Greenland summer temperatures until the early 1990s but not thereafter. Significant warming in southern Greenland since similar to 1990| as also evidenced from Swiss Camp on the west flank of the ice sheet| therefore reflects general Northern Hemisphere and global warming. Summer 2003 was the warmest since at least 1958 in coastal southern Greenland. The second warmest coastal summer 2005 had the most extensive anomalously warm conditions over the ablation zone of the ice sheet| which caused a record melt extent. The year 2006 was the third warmest in coastal southern Greenland and had the third-highest modeled runoff in the last 49 yr from the ice sheet; five of the nine highest runoff years occurred since 2001 inclusive. Significantly rising runoff since 1958 was largely compensated by increased precipitation and snow accumulation. Also| as observed since 1987 in a single composite record at Summit| summer temperatures near the top of the ice sheet have declined slightly but not significantly| suggesting the overall ice sheet is experiencing a dichotomous response to the recent general warming: possible reasons include the ice sheet's high thermal inertia| higher atmospheric cooling| or changes in regional wind| cloud| and/or radiation patterns. 8881,2008,2,3,Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution,The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in the climate system| helping to drive atmospheric circulations in the tropics by absorbing energy and recycling about half of the rainfall that falls on it. This region ( Amazonia) is also estimated to contain about one-tenth of the total carbon stored in land ecosystems| and to account for one-tenth of global| net primary productivity(1). The resilience of the forest to the combined pressures of deforestation and global warming is therefore of great concern(2)| especially as some general circulation models ( GCMs) predict a severe drying of Amazonia in the twenty- first century(3-5). Here we analyse these climate projections with reference to the 2005 drought in western Amazonia| which was associated(6) with unusually warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures ( SSTs). We show that reduction of dry-season ( July - October) rainfall in western Amazonia correlates well with an index of the north - south SST gradient across the equatorial Atlantic ( the 'Atlantic N - S gradient'). Our climate model is unusual among current GCMs in that it is able to reproduce this relationship and also the observed twentieth- century multidecadal variability in the Atlantic N - S gradient(7)| provided that the effects of aerosols are included in the model(8). Simulations for the twenty- first century using the same model(3|8) show a strong tendency for the SST conditions associated with the 2005 drought to become much more common| owing to continuing reductions in reflective aerosol pollution in the Northern Hemisphere(9). 1191,2008,2,4,Increasing wildfire in Alaska's boreal forest: Pathways to potential solutions of a wicked problem,Recent global environmental and social changes have created a set of "wicked problems" for which there are no optimal solutions. In this article| we illustrate the wicked nature of such problems by describing the effects of global warming on the wildfire regime and indigenous communities in Alaska| and we suggest an approach for minimizing negative impacts and maximizing positive outcomes. Warming has led to an increase in the areal extent of wildfire in Alaska| which increases fire risk to rural indigenous communities and reduces short-term subsistence opportunities. Continuing the current fire suppression policy would minimize these negative impacts| but it would also create secondary problems near communities associated with fuel buildup and contribute to a continuing decline in subsistence opportunities. Collaborations between communities and agencies to harvest flammable fuels for heating and electrical power generation near communities| and to use wild land fire for habitat enhancement in surrounding forests| could reduce community vulnerability to both the direct and the indirect effects of global climate change. 8972,2008,4,4,Industrial ecology: engineered representation of sustainability,Industrial ecology is a relatively new field of research and academic study and is well established in North America and in several Asian countries. However| it has not yet received the attention it deserves in some other important parts of the industrialized world| including Germany. This paper may contribute to a better appreciation of industrial ecology as a tool in the process of sustainable development of economies| social systems| and of aquatic and terrestrial biotopes under the pressure of rapidly changing conditions triggered by global warming and urban growth. For this reason| methods are needed to quantify the successful application of industrial ecology measures. The "Integrated Sustainability Triangle'' is introduced as a promising new possibility of quantification and monitoring. It enables justification of the contributions industrial ecology can make to sustainable development. The aggregation of individual economic contributions is assumed to create an overall impetus to the entire industrial sector including the sector of environmental engineering. Thus| the potential of industrial ecology is discussed from the macro-economic and the engineering perspective using the concept of sustainable development as a guiding principle. But the authors come to the conclusion that finding solutions to the pressing problems of our time requires more than collaboration of economy and engineering. It requires joint efforts of the whole spectrum of scientific disciplines in close collaboration with industrial and political stakeholders. 1115,2008,4,1,Industrialization| Fossil Fuels| and the Transformation of Land Use,Human-induced changes in global stocks and flows of carbon are major drivers of global climate change. This article presents a comprehensive and systemic account of a nation's carbon budget| comprising socioeconomic as well as ecological carbon flows in a historic time series. The example of Austria 1830-2000| for which excellent databases facilitate a comprehensive assessment| suggests that changes in socioeconomic metabolism during the agrarian-industrial transition are intimately linked with changes in land use and natural carbon flows. In the preindustrial agrarian colonization of Austria (during the thousands of years before 1830)| a huge amount of carbon was released due to the expansion of agricultural land. At the dawn of Austria's industrialization (1830-1880)| this process was terminated| and carbon inflows and outflows of ecosystems were approximately balanced. With rising fossil fuel consumption| Austria's socioeconomic system added growing amounts of carbon to the atmosphere each year. At the same time| fossil-fuel-powered surges in the productivity of agro-ecosystems facilitated the production of growing amounts of agricultural biomass on shrinking agricultural areas. This greatly enhanced ecological carbon flows and| together with decreasing pressures on forests| allowed ecosystems to recover from past depletion and absorb increasing amounts of carbon. The systematic interlinkage between the socioeconomic energy system and carbon flows in ecosystems| as documented in this study| underlines the need for comprehensive and consistent analyses of society-nature interaction to develop monitoring tools and support strategies aimed at a more sustainable future. 1285,2008,2,4,Infiltration into fractured bedrock,One potential consequence of global climate change and rapid changes in land use is an increased risk of flooding. Proper understanding of floodwater infiltration thus becomes a crucial component of our preparedness to meet the environmental challenges of projected climate change. In this paper| we present the results of a long- term infiltration experiment performed on fractured ash flow tuff. Water was released from a 3 x 4 m(2) infiltration plot (divided into 12 square subplots) with a head of similar to 0.04 m| over a period of similar to 800 days. This experiment revealed peculiar infiltration patterns not amenable to current infiltration models| which were originally developed for infiltration into soils over a short duration. In particular| we observed that in part of the infiltration plot| the infiltration rate abruptly increased a few weeks into the infiltration tests. We suggest that these anomalies result from increases in fracture permeability during infiltration| which may be caused by swelling of clay fillings and/or erosion of infill debris. Interaction of the infiltration water with subsurface natural cavities (lithophysal cavities) could also contribute to such anomalies. This paper provides a conceptual model that partly describes the observed infiltration patterns in fractured rock and highlights some of the pitfalls associated with direct extension of soil infiltration models to fractured rock over a long period. 1235,2008,2,4,Influence of bioclimatic variables on tree-line conifer distribution in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: implications for species of conservation concern,Aim Tree-line conifers are believed to be limited by temperature worldwide| and thus may serve as important indicators of climate change. The purpose of this study was to examine the potential shifts in spatial distribution of three tree-line conifer species in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem under three future climate-change scenarios and to assess their potential sensitivity to changes in both temperature and precipitation. Location This study was performed using data from 275 sites within the boundaries of Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks| primarily located in Wyoming| USA. Methods We used data on tree-line conifer presence from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis Program. Climatic and edaphic variables were derived from spatially interpolated maps and approximated for each of the sites. We used the random-forest prediction method to build a model of predicted current and future distributions of each of the species under various climate-change scenarios. Results We had good success in predicting the distribution of tree-line conifer species currently and under future climate scenarios. Temperature and temperature-related variables appeared to be most influential in the distribution of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis)| whereas precipitation and soil variables dominated the models for subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii). The model for whitebark pine substantially overpredicted absences (as compared with the other models)| which is probably a result of the importance of biological factors in the distribution of this species. Main conclusions These models demonstrate the complex response of conifer distributions to changing climate scenarios. Whitebark pine is considered a 'keystone' species in the subalpine forests of western North America; however| it is believed to be nearly extinct throughout a substantial portion of its range owing to the combined effects of an introduced pathogen| outbreaks of the native mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae)| and changing fire regimes. Given predicted changes in climate| it is reasonable to predict an overall decrease in pine-dominated subalpine forests in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. In order to manage these forests effectively with respect to future climate| it may be important to focus attention on monitoring dry mid- and high-elevation forests as harbingers of long-term change. 9152,2008,2,4,Influence of climate change on the water resources in an alpine region,It is widely accepted that the global warming will impact on water resources. This study investigates the possible influence of climate change on the water resources in an alpine region. A description of the actual situation with emphasis on the water resources from the one side and on the water consuming factors| here called stressors| is given. The probable effects of climate change in the region and their influence on its water resources are then described. The main outcome is that in the analysed region the climate change will rather have positive influence on the water balance by inducing higher precipitations during the rivers' natural low flow period (winter). This outcome contradicts many common predictions| however| this due to the specifics induced by the alpine nature of the catchment. 8832,2008,2,4,Influence of climate on butterfly community and population dynamics in western Ohio,Climate influences butterflies both directly and through impacts on their food plants and habitat. We look at the relationship between climate and butterflies in the Aullwood Audubon Center| west central Ohio| using the weekly Long-Term Butterfly Monitoring (LTBM) surveys (April through October 2000-2006) and the annual fourth of July counts (1989-2006). The 18 annual Fourth of July surveys yielded 20|709 butterflies and 59 species. The number of individuals though not species decreased over time. Most but not all of that decrease was from a large drop in Pieris rapae L. (Pieridae). The number of individuals was greatest when the previous and current growing seasons were cool and winter precipitation high. Individual species varied in their response to climate. Recent years have been warmer (all seasons) and have had drier winters than earlier years. The 7 yr of weekly LTBM surveys recorded 5|784 butterflies and 58 species. The total number of individuals has not changed significantly over time. The weather of the day of sampling had some effect: the total number of species was highest on clear days with some wind. The results over the 18 yr are compatible with the hypothesis that global warming has led to a decrease in the number of butterflies. Habitat changes cannot be excluded as an alternate hypothesis| but these effects seem minor. The value of a large| environmentally heterogeneous natural area like Aullwood is that it buffers short-term climatic and weather conditions to provide long-term stability for a diverse butterfly community. 8980,2008,2,4,Influence of climate variation on seasonal precipitation in the Colorado River Basin,This study analyzed the influence of large-scale climate pattern on precipitation in the Colorado River Basin. Large-scale climatic oscillations| like ENSO| PDO| NAO| and the global warming trend are associated with regional hydrologic variation. Ten types of climate indices were gathered and analyzed to investigate their influence on seasonal precipitation variation in the basin based on a linear correlation analysis and an influence index analysis. The influence index was developed in this study to measure the effect of climate variation on the seasonal precipitation in the basin. The statistical evidence achieved in this study confirms that the Colorado River Basin is subjected to the phase of climate variation. The strength of the seasonal response of precipitation to the climate variation varies in different localities in the basin. The methods of analysis used in this study were proposed in the hope that progress in understanding and modeling dynamic climatic systems can result in developing a valuable long-term forecasting model for water resources management. 9074,2008,3,4,Influence of recycling rate increase of aseptic carton for long-life milk on GWP reduction,Tetra Pak| through intensive cooperation with its supply chain| increased the post-consumer recycling rate of the aseptic packaging for long-life milk in the last 10 years. In continuation of a previous study that presented a superior overall performance in terms of reduction of the consumption of natural resources| air emissions and most of the water emissions| the objective of the present work was to apply life cycle assessment (LCA) to measure the global warming potential (GWP). The system was assessed using as functional unit 1000 liters of milk packaged in Tetra Pak Aseptic containers. The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions was calculated for recycling rates of 2%| 22%| 30%| 40% and 70% of the post-consumer residues in Scenarios I (only cardboard recycling) and II (total aseptic laminate recycling). Scenario I showed a 14% reduction in GWR representing 26 kg of avoided CO| equiv. emitted due to the efforts of Tetra Pak to increase the recycling rate front 2% (2000) to 22% (2004). If it will be possible to increase the recycling rate to 70% of post-consumer packages in the future| a 48% reduction of GWP could be attained. Methane exhibited the greatest mass reduction among the greenhouse emissions| since it is emitted during the production of cardboard and also as a result of anaerobic degradation in landfills. The total reduction of the energy requirements of the system due to the increase of the recycling rate (from 2% to 22%) is 154 MY 1000 liters| a saving of 7%. Scenario II (which considers additional polyethylene and aluminum recycling) has a smaller effect on GWP reduction than Scenario I| since PE/AL represent only 25% of the total mass of the container. The major benefit of the recycling of aseptic cartons is the reduction of the amounts of virgin materials required and the consequent reduction of air emissions. The results of this study can be used to encourage the collection of post-consumer milk cartons as part of environmental education programs. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9248,2008,2,4,Influence of summer and winter climate variability on nitrogen wet deposition in Norway,Dominating wind patterns around Norway may change due to climate warming. This could affect transport of polluted air masses and precipitation. Here| we study relations between reactive nitrogen wet deposition and air mass transport during summer and winter expressed in the form of climate indices| at seven sites in Southern Norway for the period 1980-2005. Atmospheric nitrate concentrations decreased with 0 to 50% in the period| particularly at sites with little precipitation| and mostly during 1990-2005. For comparison| reported reductions in emissions of oxidised nitrogen in Europe in 1989-2003 were 23%. Climate indices explained up to 36% of the variation in winter nitrate deposition at the western and northern sites - and also explained 60% of the variation in winter precipitation (R=0.77). This suggests that the variation in nitrate wet deposition is closely related to variation in precipitation| and that the climate indices seem to also partly control the variation in atmospheric nitrate concentrations (R=-0.45 at coastal sites). At the coastal sites| local air temperature was highly correlated (R=0.84) with winter nitrate deposition| suggesting that warm| humid winter weather results in increased wet nitrate deposition. For ammonia the pattern was similar| but this compound is more influenced by local sources. Expected severe increase in precipitation in western and northern regions as a consequence of climate change suggest that nitrogen deposition in these areas will increase under global warming if emissions are held constant. 9005,2008,2,4,Influence of temperature on the growth and development of olive (Olea europaea L.) trees,Temperature is one of the most important factors controlling plant growth and development. Knowledge of the effects of temperature on plants is vital if crop management strategies are to be optimised and the best varieties chosen for local conditions. As the effects of global warming are now becoming patent| it is even more critical that we should understand how temperature affects crop growth. In this study| degree-day (DD) accumulation was used to establish the influence of temperature on flowering| vegetative growth| and fruit growth in olive. The results show that the timing of olive flowering in the study region can be predicted from mean April and May temperatures| although this can be improved by taking into account the maximum March| and even February| temperatures. With respect to heat accumulation and flowering| the lower threshold temperature (LTT) was 4.7 degrees C| with 890 degrees Cd necessary. The LTT for trunk. growth was 7 degrees C| while that for shoot and crown volume growth was 13 degrees - 14 degrees C. The LTT for fruit growth was 15 degrees C with respect to fresh weight| and 24 degrees- 26 degrees C with respect to cross-sectional diameter. The increase in the longitudinal diameter of fruit was more rapid than the increase in the cross-sectional diameter| which was more dependent on temperature. Increasing temperatures in the study area would cause olive trees to flower earlier and their growth period to be lengthened. 8997,2008,2,3,Influence of the Gulf Stream on the troposphere,The Gulf Stream transports large amounts of heat from the tropics to middle and high latitudes| and thereby affects weather phenomena such as cyclogenesis(1|2) and low cloud formation(3). But its climatic influence| on monthly and longer timescales| remains poorly understood. In particular| it is unclear how the warm current affects the free atmosphere above the marine atmospheric boundary layer. Here we consider the Gulf Stream's influence on the troposphere| using a combination of operational weather analyses| satellite observations and an atmospheric general circulation model(4). Our results reveal that the Gulf Stream affects the entire troposphere. In the marine boundary layer| atmospheric pressure adjustments to sharp sea surface temperature gradients lead to surface wind convergence| which anchors a narrow band of precipitation along the Gulf Stream. In this rain band| upward motion and cloud formation extend into the upper troposphere| as corroborated by the frequent occurrence of very low cloud- top temperatures. These mechanisms provide a pathway by which the Gulf Stream can affect the atmosphere locally| and possibly also in remote regions by forcing planetary waves(5|6). The identification of this pathway may have implications for our understanding of the processes involved in climate change| because the Gulf Stream is the upper limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation| which has varied in strength in the past(7) and is predicted to weaken in response to human- induced global warming in the future(8). 8893,2008,2,4,Influence of the persistence of circulation patterns on warm and cold temperature anomalies in Europe: Analysis over the 20th century,Recent studies have pointed out that persistence of the atmospheric circulation over Europe| as measured by residence times of circulation types| has increased since the mid-1980s in all seasons and for most groups of the types. The greater persistence may affect surface climatic anomalies| particularly the frequency and severity of heat and cold waves associated with severe impacts on society and environment. In this paper| relationships between the persistence of circulation types over Europe and extreme surface air temperature anomalies are studied over the 20th century using the Hess-Brezowsky catalogue of large-scale circulation patterns and long-term temperature series at stations covering most of the European continent. Types significantly conducive to heat and cold waves are identified| and temperature anomalies are linked to their persistence. It is shown that more persistent circulation enhances the severity of temperature extremes over the whole area| which is slightly more important for warm than cold temperature anomalies. The changes in both frequencies and residence times of circulation patterns have been supporting sharply rising trends in warm temperature extremes observed over Europe in recent decades| and the circulation changes may also contributed to the fact that trends in cold temperature extremes have been less pronounced or absent in the same period. The findings also emphasize the need for taking into account the persistence of circulation types together with their frequencies when evaluating links between the atmospheric circulation and the surface climate. In global warming context| the effects of the future climate change on the occurrence and severity of temperature extremes may be exacerbated by a more persistent circulation related to a decreased cyclone activity over mid-latitudes and a northward shift of storm tracks. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8427,2008,4,2,Influence of Volcanic Activity on Climate Change in the Past Several Centuries: Assessments with a Climate Model of Intermediate Complexity,The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is supplemented by a scheme which takes into account the volcanic forcing of climate. With this model| ensemble experiments have been conducted for the 1600s-1900s| in which| along with the volcanic forcing| the anthropogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols and the natural forcing due to variations in solar irradiance were taken into account. The model realistically reproduces the annual mean response of surface air temperature and precipitation to major eruptions both globally and regionally. In particular| the decreases in the annual mean global temperature T(g) in the IAP RAS CM after the largest eruptions in the latter half of the 20th century| the Mt. Agung (1963)| El Chi-chon (1982)| and Mt. Pinatubo (1991) volcanic eruptions| are 0.28| 0.27| and 0.46 K| respectively| in agreement with estimates from observational data. Moreover| in the IAP RAS CM| the volcanic eruptions result in a general precipitation decrease| especially over land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The seasonal distribution of the response shows good agreement with observations for high-latitude eruptions and worse agreement for tropical and subtropical volcanoes. On interdecadal scales| volcanism leads to variations in T(g) on the order of 0.1 K. In numerical experiments with anthropogenic and natural forcings| the model reproduces a general change in surface air temperature over the past several centuries. Taking into account the volcanic forcing| along with that due to variations in solar irradiance| the model has partly reproduced the non-monotonic global warming for the 20th century. 9267,2008,3,3,Influence of Wall Composition on Thermo-Physical Properties and Energy-Saving in Wooden Houses,As one of the countermeasures against global warming| it is effective to make use of wood resources that serve as carbon storage and improve energy-saving efficiency of buildings. In this study| it is examined how the wall composition of a wooden house affects indoor thermal environments and its energy-saving effects. Three types of wooden wall panels with different compositions are used to examine each type's thermo-physical properties by JIS-compliant tests as well as large-scale tests with experimental buildings. Moreover| power consumption of a heated building was also measured in order to make clear the effect of the wall composition of a wooden house on energy-saving. The obtained results are as follows : 1. Coefficients of overall heat transmission were qualitatively larger in the following order : general mud wall>wall composed of wood and mud>wall primarily composed of heat insulating material. 2. The air-conditioner's power consumption was larger in the following order : house with A mud walls> house with walls composed of wood and mud>insulation-type house. As the temperature difference A between indoors and outdoors increased| this tendency became more notable. 3. In the cases of insulation-type 4 houses| the ratio of electric power consumption for heating to temperature difference between indoors and outdoors was generally constant| while in the case of a house with walls composed of wood and mud or with mud walls| the ratio was not constant| denoting the effect of heat capacity. 4. The compound wall of Japanese cedar and mud showed a better heat insulation property than the mud wall| and its energy-saving effect was improved. 8585,2008,2,4,Influence of warming on soil water potential controls seedling mortality in perennial but not annual species in a temperate grassland,In a water-limited system| the following hypotheses are proposed: warming will increase seedling mortality; elevated atmospheric CO2| will reduce seedling mortality by reducing transpiration| thereby increasing soil water availability; and longevity (i.e. whether a species is annual or perennial) will affect the response of a species to global changes. Here| these three hypotheses are tested by assessing the impact of elevated CO2 (550 mu mol mol(-1)) and warming (+2 degrees C) on seedling emergence| survivorship and establishment in an Australian temperate grassland from autumn 2004 to autumn 2007. Warming impacts on seedling survivorship were dependent upon species longevity. Warming reduced seedling survivorship of perennials through its effects on soil water potential but the seedling survivorship of annuals was reduced to a greater extent than could be accounted for by treatment effects on soil water potential. Elevated CO2 did not significantly affect seedling survivorship in annuals or perennials. These results show that warming will alter recruitment of perennial species by changing soil water potential but will reduce recruitment of annual species independent of any effects on soil moisture. The results also show that exposure to elevated CO2 does not make seedlings more resistant to dry soils. 9099,2008,4,4,Infrared heater arrays for warming ecosystem field plots,There is a need for methodology to warm open-field plots in order to study the likely effects of global warming on ecosystems in the future. Herein| we describe the development of arrays of more powerful and efficient infrared heaters with ceramic heating elements. By tilting the heaters at 45 degrees from horizontal and combining six of them in a hexagonal array| good uniformity of warming was achieved across 3-m-diameter plots. Moreover| there do not appear to be obstacles (other than financial) to scaling to larger plots. The efficiency [eta(h) (%); thermal radiation out per electrical energy in] of these heaters was higher than that of the heaters used in most previous infrared heater experiments and can be described by: eta(h) = 10 + 25exp(-0.17 u)| where u is wind speed at 2 m height (m s(-1)). Graphs are presented to estimate operating costs from degrees of warming| two types of plant canopy| and site windiness. Four such arrays were deployed over plots of grass at Haibei| Qinghai| China and another at Cheyenne| Wyoming| USA| along with corresponding reference plots with dummy heaters. Proportional integral derivative systems with infrared thermometers to sense canopy temperatures of the heated and reference plots were used to control the heater outputs. Over month-long periods at both sites| about 75% of canopy temperature observations were within 0.5 degrees C of the set-point temperature differences between heated and reference plots. Electrical power consumption per 3-m-diameter plot averaged 58 and 80 kW h day(-1) for Haibei and Cheyenne| respectively. However| the desired temperature differences were set lower at Haibei (1.2 degrees C daytime| 1.7 degrees C night) than Cheyenne (1.5 degrees C daytime| 3.0 degrees C night)| and Cheyenne is a windier site. Thus| we conclude that these hexagonal arrays of ceramic infrared heaters can be a successful temperature free-air-controlled enhancement (T-FACE) system for warming ecosystem field plots. 8425,2008,2,4,Insect seed predators and environmental change,1. The seed-to-seedling transition may be a critical stage in determining the dynamics of plant populations. Insects which kill seeds either before or after dispersal can influence the population dynamics of individual plant species| and ultimately| plant diversity and assemblage composition. 2. We discuss the potential for insect seed predators to maintain diversity in plant assemblages and to structure their composition| with a particular focus on diverse tropical forest habitats. We suggest that our ability to understand the functional effects of insect seed predators is hampered by a shortage of unbiased information on (i) their responses to the density of prey seeds at different spatial scales| and (ii) their host plant specificity. 3. Density-dependence and its implications may be best assessed using manipulative field experiments. Such approaches can reveal how insect seed predators respond behaviourally and demographically to the density of individual host species and multiple host species across a range of spatial scales. 5. Host specificity and its implications may be best addressed through quantitative food web approaches previously applied largely to host-parasitoid interactions. Food webs will allow ecologists to assess the likely importance of indirect interactions such as apparent competition and apparent mutualism in structuring plant assemblages| and the functional consequences of adding or removing individual resource or consumer species. 6. Fully quantifying the wider effects of seed predators will require studies that better integrate seed stage-specific demographic information| and which quantify the long-term effects of variations in seed predation rates for plant recruitment. Synthesis and applications. Compared to other functionally important insect groups such as pollinators| seed predators have received relatively little attention in the context of the functioning and sustainability of agro-ecosystems and the consequences of global environmental change for ecological communities. A fuller understanding of the ecology of insect seed predator-plant interactions will be valuable to conservation and management in a range of natural and agricultural systems. For example| seed predator community ecology is relevant to predicting the consequences of deliberately or unintentionally introducing novel resource or consumer species; the process of habitat recovery following local disturbances; and managing the effects of pest or beneficial seed predators in agricultural crops. Furthermore| patterns of insect seed predation on a larger scale are likely to be highly sensitive to global environmental change drivers such as climate change and systematic habitat modification and fragmentation| with implications for the structure and organization of ecological communities more widely. 8920,2008,3,4,Insulation characteristics of CO2 gas for nonstandard lightning impulse oscillations: Evaluation method of nonstandard lightning impulse waveform for CO2 gas insulation,SF6 gas is widely used in electric power apparatus such as gas-insulated switchgears (GIS)| because of its superior dielectric properties; however| it has been identified as a greenhouse gas at COP3 in 1997| and alternative insulation gases to SF6 have recently been investigated. One of the candidates is CO2 gas| which has lower global warming potential (GWP). However| CO2 gas has a lower withstand voltage level than SF6 gas; therefore| it is necessary to rationalize the equipment insulation level and reexamine the insulating test voltage for electric power apparatus as low as possible. From our previous investigation| in SF6 gas insulation system| we obtained that the insulation requirements of the real surges (called nonstandard lightning impulse waveform) are not as severe as those of the standard lightning impulse waveform. This paper describes the evaluation method for real surges| based on insulation characteristics of CO2 gas gaps. Furthermore| the method was applied to typical field overvoltage waveform in the lightning surge time region for 500-kV systems and it is obtained that the equivalent peak value of the standard lightning impulse waveform is possibly reduced by 10 to 15%. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals| Inc. 8728,2008,3,4,Insulation characteristics of gas mixtures including perfluorocarbon gas,This paper describes discharge properties of N(2) and CO(2)-based gas mixtures including a perfluorocarbon (PFC) gas such as CF(4)| C(3)F(8) and C-C(4)F(8) under non-uniform field. The mixture ratio between a base gas of N(2) or CO(2) and the additive PFC gas was fixed as 9:1; namely| 90%N(2)/10%PFC or 90%CO(2)/10%PFC gas mixture. The PFC gases have even smaller global warming potential (GWP) than SF(6) gas and have good insulation properties as SF6 gas. Thus| PFC gas mixture is expected to be a SF(6) substitute without highly pressurizing the gas over the conventional pressure of 0.5 to 0.6 MPa. In this study| in order to compare the partial discharge (PD) inception voltage V(PD) and breakdown voltage V(B) properties between N(2) and CO(2)-based gas mixtures| as well as between the additive gas of PFC and SF(6) gas| we investigated these properties of the gas mixtures with a needle to plane electrode under ac high voltage application. The gas pressure was changed from 0.1 to 0.6 NIPa. As a result| it was found that V(PD) and V(B) characteristics of N(2) and CO(2)-based gas mixtures differed considerably| especially the gas pressure dependence of V(B) (so-called the N shape characteristics). V(B) characteristics of N(2)-based gas mixture including C-C(4)F(8) proved to be excellent within the test conditions over the wide gas pressure region| showing the maximum breakdown voltage. In terms of V(PD) properties| CO(2)-based gas mixture had an advantage over N(2)-based gas mixture due to higher V(PD). Furthermore| we discussed the synergy effects of V(PD) and V(B) for N(2) and CO(2)-based gas mixtures using the index R|| which was defined to quantify the degree of the effect. R(n) for CO(2)-based gas mixture was higher than that of N(2)-based gas mixture. 1319,2008,2,4,Integration of atmospheric sciences and hydrology for the development of decision support systems in sustainable water management,Sustainable decisions in water resources management require scientifically sound information on water availability. Central support in hydrological decision making arises from hydrological modelling which in turn depends on meteorological input. This work intends to show how integration of atmospheric science and hydrology| particularly the joint modelling of atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle| allows to provide decision support for two fundamental problems in sustainable water management: (1) the impact of global climate change on water availability| and (2) the near-real time estimation of recent resources and fluxes. The performance of joint atmospheric-hydrological simulations and its application for decision support is demonstrated for the Volta Basin of West Africa. First| the impact of global warming on water availability in the Volta Basin is assessed by joint regional climate-hydrology simulations. Time slices of ECHAM4 global climate scenario IS92a are dynamically downscaled to a resolution of 9 x 9 km(2) with the mesoscale meteorological model MM5 and the terrestrial water balance is subsequently calculated by the distributed hydrological model WaSiM. Results indicate a slight increase in total annual precipitation by 5%| but also a significant decrease of precipitation in April (in total 20%| for specific regions up to 70%)| at the beginning of the rainy season. Terrestrial water balance variables react highly nonlinear to changes in precipitation and temperature. Second| the performance of joint atmospheric-hydrological simulations as a tool for near-real-time| model based water monitoring system for the White Volta subcatchment is assessed. Operational available GFS (Global Forecasting System) global analyses are dynamically downscaled to 9 x 9 km(2) resolution and meteorological fields subsequently applied for calculating the terrestrial water balance. Albeit a bias in precipitation simulations can be observed when comparing to point measurements| modelled river discharge agrees well with observations in 2004. It is concluded that particularly in areas with weak infrastructures| where few meteorological observations are available (or only in long delay)| atmospheric models can provide reasonable meteorological information for hydrological modelling and therefore facilitate decision support. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9159,2008,2,3,Inter-annual variability of the carbon dioxide oceanic sink south of Tasmania,We compiled a large data-set from 22 cruises spanning from 1991 to 2003| of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO(2)) in surface waters over the continental shelf (CS) and adjacent open ocean (43 degrees to 46 degrees S; 145 degrees to 150 degrees E)| south of Tasmania. Climatological seasonal cycles of pCO(2) in the CS| the subtropical zone (STZ) and the subAntarctic zone (SAZ) are described and used to determine monthly pCO(2) anomalies. These are used in combination with monthly anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) to investigate inter-annual variations of SST and pCO(2). Monthly anomalies of SST (as intense as 2 degrees C) are apparent in the CS| STZ and SAZ| and are indicative of strong inter-annual variability that seems to be related to large-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Anomalies of pCO(2) normalized to a constant temperature are negatively related to SST anomalies. A reduced winter-time vertical input of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) during phases of positive SST anomalies| related to a poleward shift of westerly winds| and a concomitant local decrease in wind stress is the likely cause of the negative relationship between pCO(2) and SST anomalies. The observed pattern is an increase of the sink for atmospheric CO2 associated with positive SST anomalies| although strongly modulated by inter-annual variability of wind speed. Assuming that phases of positive SST anomalies are indicative of the future evolution of regional ocean biogeochemistry under global warming| we show using a purely observational based approach that some provinces of the Southern Ocean could provide a potential negative feedback on increasing atmospheric CO2. 8509,2008,2,4,INTERACTION OF AN INTRODUCED PREDATOR WITH FUTURE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE RECRUITMENT DYNAMICS OF THE IMPERILED SIERRA NEVADA YELLOW-LEGGED FROG (RANA SIERRAE),Between-year variation in snowpack (from 20 to 200% of average) and summer rainfall cause large fluctuations in volume of small lakes in the higher elevation (> 3000 m) Sierra Nevada| which are important habitat for the imperiled Sierra Nevada Yellow-legged Frog| Rana sierrae. Climate change (global warming) is predicted to increase these fluctuations| potentially leading to more frequent summer lake drying of shallow| fishless ponds where most R. sierrae breeding and larval development (requiring >= 3 years) occurs today. This study explored the interaction between water availability and the abundance and recruitment of R. sierrae in Dusy Basin| Kings Canyon National Park| California| USA. We mapped the Dusy Basin lakes with GPS| calculated water volumes in a low-snowpack and a high-snowpack year (2002| 2003)| and counted R. sierrae. The lakes that dried up in 2002 were repopulated by adults in 2003| without any recruitment of metamorphosed frogs from previous year's tadpoles. The lakes that retained water| even with notable volume decreases (-60%)| showed tadpole-to-subadult recruitment in the following year (2003). Similar results are obtained using data for years 1997-2006: significantly greater abundance of metamorphs in permanently wet lakes than in lakes that had dried even once during the 10 years. Similarly| those lakes that had retained water during any two preceding years had significantly more metamorphs than lakes that had dried up during that period. Our results suggest that any increase in drying of small ponds will severely reduce frog recruitment. Combined with the invasive fish that prevent frog breeding in larger lakes| lake drying may cause extinction of local frog populations. 8960,2008,2,3,Interaction of the methane cycle and processes in wetland ecosystems in a climate model of intermediate complexity,The climate model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) has been supplemented with a module of soil thermal physics and the methane cycle| which takes into account the response of methane emissions from wetland ecosystems to climate changes. Methane emissions are allowed only from unfrozen top layers of the soil| with an additional constraint in the depth of the simulated layer. All wetland ecosystems are assumed to be water-saturated. The molar amount of the methane oxidized in the atmosphere is added to the simulated atmospheric concentration of CO2. A control preindustrial experiment and a series of numerical experiments for the 17th-21st centuries were conducted with the model forced by greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols. It is shown that the IAP RAS CM generally reproduces preindustrial and current characteristics of both seasonal thawing/freezing of the soil and the methane cycle. During global warming in the 21st century| the permafrost area is reduced by four million square kilometers. By the end of the 21st century| methane emissions from wetland ecosystems amount to 130-140 Mt CH4/year for the preindustrial and current period increase to 170-200 MtCH(4)/year. In the aggressive anthropogenic forcing scenario A2| the atmospheric methane concentration grows steadily to approximate to 3900 ppb. In more moderate scenarios A1B and B1| the methane concentration increases until the mid-21st century| reaching approximate to 2100-2400 ppb| and then decreases. Methane oxidation in air results in a slight additional growth of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. Allowance for the interaction between processes in wetland ecosystems and the methane cycle in the IAP RAS CM leads to an additional atmospheric methane increase of 10-20% depending on the anthropogenic forcing scenario and the time. The causes of this additional increase are the temperature dependence of integral methane production and the longer duration of a warm period in the soil. However| the resulting enhancement of the instantaneous greenhouse radiative forcing of atmospheric methane and an increase in the mean surface air temperature are small (globally < 0.1 W/m(2) and 0.05 K| respectively). 8868,2008,3,4,Interactions among Amazon land use| forests and climate: prospects for a near-term forest tipping point,Some model experiments predict a large-scale substitution of Amazon forest by savannah-like vegetation by the end of the twenty-first century. Expanding global demands for biofuels and grains| positive feedbacks in the Amazon forest fire regime and drought may drive a faster process of forest degradation that could lead to a near-term forest dieback. Rising worldwide demands for biofuel and meat are creating powerful new incentives for agro-industrial expansion into Amazon forest regions. Forest fires| drought and logging increase susceptibility to further burning while deforestation and smoke can inhibit rainfall| exacerbating fire risk. If sea surface temperature anomalies (such as El Nino episodes) and associated Amazon droughts of the last decade continue into the future| approximately 55% of the forests of the Amazon will be cleared| logged| damaged by drought or burned over the next 20 years| emitting 15-26 Pg of carbon to the atmosphere. Several important trends could prevent a near-term dieback. As fire-sensitive investments accumulate in the landscape| property holders use less fire and invest more in fire control. Commodity markets are demanding higher environmental performance from farmers and cattle ranchers. Protected areas have been established in the pathway of expanding agricultural frontiers. Finally| emerging carbon market incentives for reductions in deforestation could support these trends. 1190,2008,2,4,Interactions among fungal community structure| litter decomposition and depth of water table in a cutover peatland,Peatlands are important reservoirs of carbon (C) but our understanding of C cycling on cutover peatlands is limited. We investigated the decomposition over 18 months of five types of plant litter (Calluna vulgaris| Eriophorum angustifolium| Eriophorum vaginatum| Picea sitchensis and Sphagnum auriculatum) at a cutover peatland in Scotland| at three water tables. We measured changes in C| nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the litter and used denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis to investigate changes in fungal community composition. The C content of S. auriculatum litter did not change throughout the incubation period whereas vascular plant litters lost 30-40% of their initial C. There were no differences in C losses between low and medium water tables| but losses were always significantly less at the high water table. Most litters accumulated N and E. angustifolium accumulated significant quantities of P. C| N and P were significant explanatory variables in determining changes in fungal community composition but explained < 25% of the variation. Litter type was always a stronger factor than water table in determining either fungal community composition or turnover of C| N and P in litter. The results have implications for the ways restoration programmes and global climate change may impact upon nutrient cycling in cutover peatlands. 1073,2008,2,4,Interactive Effects of Elevated CO(2) and Growth Temperature on the Tolerance of Photosynthesis to Acute Heat Stress in C(3) and C(4) Species,Determining effects of elevated CO(2) on the tolerance of photosynthesis to acute heat-stress (heat wave) is necessary for predicting plant responses to global warming| as photosynthesis is thermolabile and acute heat-stress and atmospheric CO(2) will increase in the future. Few studies have examined this| and past results are variable| which may be due to methodological variation. To address this| we grew two C(3) and two C(4) species at current or elevated CO(2) and three different growth temperatures (GT). We assessed photosynthetic thermotolerance in both unacclimated (basal tolerance) and pre-heat-stressed (preHS = acclimated) plants. In C(3) species| basal thermotolerance of net photosynthesis (P(n)) was increased in high CO(2)| but in C(4) species| P(n) thermotlerance was decreased by high CO(2) (except Zea mays at low GT); CO(2) effects in preHS plants were mostly small or absent| though high CO(2) was detrimental in one C(3) and one C(4) species at warmer GT. Though high CO(2) generally decreased stomatal conductance| decreases in P(n) during heat stress were mostly due to non-stomatal effects. Photosystem II (PSII) efficiency was often decreased by high CO(2) during heat stress| especially at high GT; CO(2) effects on post-PSII electron transport were variable. Thus| high CO(2) often affected photosynthetic theromotolerance| and the effects varied with photosynthetic pathway| growth temperature| and acclimation state. Most importantly| in heat-stressed plants at normal or warmer growth temperatures| high CO(2) may often decrease| or not benefit as expected| tolerance of photosynthesis to acute heat stress. Therefore| interactive effects of elevated CO(2) and warmer growth temperatures on acute heat tolerance may contribute to future changes in plant productivity| distribution| and diversity. 9010,2008,2,4,Interactive effects of global and regional change on a coastal ecosystem,Shallow waters and lowland meet at the same level in the Wadden Sea| but are separated by walls of coastal defense. What are the prospects of this coastal ecosystem in a warmer world? We focus on tidal waters and inshore sedimentary bottoms| expect nutrient supply from land to decline and species introductions| temperature and sea level to rise. The effects are interrelated and will have an increasing likelihood of abrupt and irreversible developments. The biotic interactions are hardly predictable but we anticipate the following changes to be more likely than others: blooms of phytoplankton will be weak mainly because of increasing pelagic and benthic grazing pressure| both facilitated by warming. Possibly birds feeding on mollusks will encounter decreasing resource availability while fisheaters benefit. Extensive reefs of Pacific oysters could facilitate aquatic macrophytes. Sea level rise and concomitant hydrodynamics above tidal flats favor well-anchored suspension feeders as well as burrowing fauna adapted to dynamic permeable sand. With high shares of immigrants from overseas and the south| species richness will increase; yet the ecosystem stability may become lower. We suggest that for the next decades invasions of introduced species followed by warming and declining nutrient supply will be the most pressing factor on the changes in the Wadden Sea ecosystem| and the effects of sea level rise to be the key issue on the scale of the whole century and beyond. 8839,2008,2,3,Interannual variations and future change of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity over North America in CCSM3,Climatology and interannual variations of wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency in CCSM3 twentieth century simulation are compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis during 1950-1999. CCSM3 can simulate the storm tracks reasonably well| although the model produces slightly less cyclones at the beginning of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks and weaker poleward deflection over the Pacific. As in the reanalysis| frequency of cyclones stronger than 980 hPa shows significant correlation with the Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern over the Pacific region and with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Atlantic sector. Composite maps are constructed for opposite phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the NAO and all anomalous patterns coincide with observed. One CCSM3 twenty-first century A1B scenario realization indicates there is significant increase in the extratropical cyclone frequency on the US west coast and decrease in Alaska. Meanwhile| cyclone frequency increases from the Great Lakes region to Quebec and decreases over the US east coast| suggesting a possible northward shift of the Atlantic storm tracks under the warmer climate. The cyclone frequency anomalies are closely linked to changes in seasonal mean states of the upper-troposphere zonal wind and baroclinicity in the lower troposphere. Due to lack of 6-hourly outputs| we cannot apply the cyclone-tracking algorithm to the other eight CCSM3 realizations. Based on the linkage between the mean state change and the cyclone frequency anomalies| it is likely a common feature among the other ensemble members that cyclone activity is reduced on the East Coast and in Alaska as a result of global warming. 1335,2008,2,4,Interspecific differences in population trends of Spanish birds are related to habitat and climatic preferences,Aim Animal monitoring programmes have allowed analyses of population trends| most of which now comment on the possible effect of global climate change. However| the relationship between the interspecific variation in population trends and species traits| such as habitat preferences| niche breadth or distribution patterns| has received little attention| in spite of its usefulness in the construction of ecological generalizations. The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine whether there are characteristics shared among species with upwards or downwards trends| and (2) to assess whether population changes agree with what could be expected under global warming (a decrease in species typical of cooler environments). Location The Spanish part of the Iberian Peninsula (c. 500|000 km(2)) in the south-western part of the Mediterranean Basin. Methods We modelled recent breeding population changes (1996-2004)| in areas without apparent land use changes| for 57 common passerine birds with species-specific ecological and distributional patterns as explanatory variables. Results One-half of these species have shown a generalized pattern towards the increase of their populations| while only one-tenth showed a significant decrease. One half (54%) of the interspecific variability in yearly population trends is explained considering species-specific traits. Species showing more marked increases preferred wooded habitats| were habitat generalists and occupied warmer and wetter areas| while moderate decreases were found for open country habitats in drier areas. Main conclusions The coherent pattern in population trends we found disagrees with the proposed detrimental effect of global warming on bird populations of western Europe| which is expected to be more intense in bird species inhabiting cooler areas and habitats. Such a pattern suggests that factors other than the increase in temperature may be brought to discussions on global change as relevant components to explain recent changes in biodiversity. 9109,2008,3,3,Introducing population-adjusted historical contributions to global warming,The 1997 Brazilian Proposal suggested that differentiated emissions reduction targets for Annex I parties of the UNFCCC should be based on the impact of their historic greenhouse gas emissions on global temperature rise. In this paper| we develop methodologies for (and undertake) population-adjusted historical responsibility calculations. These adjust national-level historical responsibility calculations for historical population trends. We find a weak correlation between current per capita emissions levels and population-adjusted historical responsibility. Our calculations may contribute to burden sharing schemes in future climate agreements. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1267,2008,2,4,Inundation of freshwater peatlands by sea level rise: Uncertainty and potential carbon cycle feedbacks,Freshwater peatlands represent an important component of global biogeochemistry through their role in carbon sequestration. Threats to carbon storage in freshwater peat include climate-related increases in rates of oxidation and methanogenesis| increased wildfires| drainage| and dissolved organic carbon export from runoff. This paper discusses the potential impact of sea level rise on carbon fluxes from coastal peatlands| an issue not addressed by previous studies describing threats to peatlands from global climate change. We estimate carbon stocks and potential emissions from a coastal freshwater peatland located in North Carolina| United States. Four scenarios for inundation were modeled using Hadley-CM3 scenarios (including the effects of collapsed barrier islands) with a lidar-derived digital elevation model. Monte Carlo analysis was used to address model uncertainty and sensitivity of carbon emission parameters for three scenarios. Total existing carbon storage (peat and vegetation) on the Peninsula (5671 km 2) was estimated to range between 155.5 and 201.0 TgC (95% confidence intervals). Sea level projections ranged from 0.35 to 1.38 m by the end of the century and were estimated to inundate between 1260 and 3020 km 2 of the Peninsula. Carbon emissions from inundation of peat and vegetation ranged from 4.7-20.9 TgC (assuming inundation preserved peat deposits) to 99.4-128.0 TgC (assuming 100% emissions of inundated peat). While considerable uncertainty exists regarding the fate of carbon fluxes| we identify 150|000 km 2 of freshwater peatlands worldwide below 5-m elevation and vulnerable to sea level rise. Our study suggests that future sea level rise may contribute a positive feedback to the global carbon cycle. 8738,2008,2,4,Invasive alien plants in marine protected areas: the Spartina anglica affair in the European Wadden Sea,The common cord-grass Spartina anglica| a fertile hybrid of S. maritima and S. alterniflora| was planted in the European Wadden Sea extensively during the late 1920s and 1930s to promote sediment accretion. After establishment| it colonised as a pioneer plant in the upper tidal zone| where it occurs frequently in coherent swards at the seaward front of saltmarshes and in patches on the tidal flats. Often| a conspicuous| almost monotypic| belt of S. anglica is formed. Over the last two decades| an increase in abundance and accelerated spread of S. anglica was observed| possibly promoted by warmer spring temperatures. This alien species may benefit from global warming| and there is considerable concern about its harmful impacts on the native biocoenoses and native biodiversity of the unique Wadden Sea ecosystem| encompassing effects on hydromorphodynamics and coastal protection. For a definitive assessment| however| an adequate quantification and comparison of documented and potential effects of S. anglica is important| but currently unavailable. Consequently| no management strategy exists for the prevention or restoration of the Wadden Sea ecosystem. Thus| the development of an alien species plan on the level of the Trilateral Cooperation on the Protection of the Wadden Sea is essential. 8863,2008,2,4,Invasive Spartina and reduced sediments: Shanghai's dangerous silver bullet,Aims This synthesis paper is developed to provide a summary of ecological| socioeconomic challenges facing the estuarine wetlands within the Yangtze River delta. Methods We combined literature review of the estuarine wetlands and ground measurements of sedimentation| vegetation| and carbon fluxes to illustrate the foreseeable crises in managing these wetlands that play a critical role in Shanghai's urban development. Where the Yangtze River meets the Pacific Ocean| 4.15 x 10(8) mg/year of suspended sediments are deposited along mainland and island shorelines of the 40 000 km(2) delta-resulting in an average growth rate of land outwards 64 m/year since 1951. However| completion of the Three Gorges Dam in 2003| and earlier dam projects| reduced the rates of sedimentation and growth of the islands. To meet the increasing demands for lands and agriculture| policymakers have attempted to enlarge the islands by diking coastal areas and introducing Spartina alterniflora-a grass native to tidal salt marshes of the southeastern USA but exotic to China. Spartina is one of the 16 greatest invasive species listed by the State Environmental Protection Administration of China. successful plantations and rapid spread of this species have increased the production and fertility of the coast| but at the cost of native ecosystems. We outline the social| economic| and ecological controversies related to this land management strategy in the contest of global warming. Important findings Combinations of these changes| including sea level rise| and alterations to storm patterns and long-shore currents| with the continued spread of Spartina| human population growth| and river flow and sediment reduction will make current management untenable. 8588,2008,3,4,Investigation of the Performance of CF3I Gas as a Possible Substitute for SF6,Our research has investigated the use of CF3I| which has lower Global Warming Potential (GWP)| as a substitute gas for SF6. The use of pure CF3I in gas insulated switchgear (GIS) and gas circuit breakers (GCB) is difficult because liquid CF3I has a high boiling point. We have therefore mixed CF3I with CO2 or N-2. By investigating the decomposed gas after a current interruption| we have shown that the iodine density from CF31-CO2(30%-70%) is about 1/3 of that of pure CF3I. In addition| no fluorine was detected from the gas mixture. Our investigation of the breakdown voltage characteristics has shown that the dielectric strength of CF3I-CO2 (30%-70%) is about 0.75 to 0.80 times that of SF6. In Breaker Terminal Fault (BTF) and Short Line Fault (SLF) interruption| CF3I-CO2 is superior to CF3I-N-2. Because of the high boiling point of CF3I| the proportion of CF3I should be small. In BTF interruption| the performance approximates to that of pure CF3I when the proportion of CF3I exceeds 30%. Similarly| the SLF interruption performance approximates to that of pure CF3I when the proportion of CF3I exceeds 20%. 1250,2008,2,2,Is climate change affecting the population dynamics of the endangered Pacific loggerhead sea turtle?,The loggerhead sea turtle is an endangered species exposed to many anthropogenic hazards in the Pacific. It is widely held that pelagic longline fisheries pose the major risk for Pacific loggerheads but the effects of other risk factors such as human-induced global climate change have rarely been considered. So we used generalised additive regression modelling and autoregressive-prewhitened cross-correlation analysis to explore whether regional ocean temperatures affect the long-term nesting population dynamics for the 2 Pacific loggerhead genetic stocks (Japan| Australia). We found that both Pacific stocks have been exposed to slowly increasing trends in mean annual sea surface temperature in their respective core regional foraging habitats over the past 50 years. We show that irrespective of whether a population was decreasing or increasing that there was an inverse correlation between nesting abundance and mean annual sea surface temperature in the core foraging region during the year prior to the summer nesting season. Cooler foraging habitat ocean temperatures are presumably associated with increased ocean productivity and prey abundance and consequently increased loggerhead breeding capacity. So warming regional ocean temperatures could lead to long-term decreased food supply and reduced nesting and recruitment unless Pacific loggerheads adapt by shifting their foraging habitat to cooler regions. So the gradual warming of the Pacific Ocean over the past 50 years is a major risk factor that must be considered in any meaningful diagnosis of the long-term declines apparent for some Pacific loggerhead nesting populations. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1179,2008,2,4,Is coastal lagoon eutrophication likely to be aggravated by global climate change?,Coastal zones are widely recognised as being particularly vulnerable to future environmental change. Although a significant number of previous papers warn of an increasing tendency in the appearance of eutrophication processes in such systems| very few papers have evaluated the influence of global climate change on eutrophication. In the Mar Menor lagoon (SE Spain)| the high biomass of the main primary producer| Caulerpa prolifera Forsskal (Lamououx)| covers most of the bottom| and has probably increased the resistance of the lagoon to eutrophication processes through the high uptake of nutrients from the water column and their retention in the sediments| avoiding high phytoplankton densities. Nevertheless| if climate change predictions become true| the current status of the lagoon is likely to collapse| since future environmental conditions could make C. prolifera unable to reach values of net photosynthesis greater than zero| and eutrophication processes are expected to appear. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1146,2008,2,4,Isoprene emission is not temperature-dependent during and after severe drought-stress: a physiological and biochemical analysis,Black poplar (Populus nigra L.) plants grown at 25 and 35 degrees C were subjected to drought stress to assess the combined impact of two consequences of global climate change - rising temperature and drought - on isoprene biosynthesis and emission. At both temperatures| photosynthesis was inhibited by moderate drought| but isoprene emission only decreased when drought was prolonged. The mRNA transcript level| protein concentration and activity of isoprene synthase (ISPS) changed in concert with isoprene emission during drought stress. However| ISPS activity decreased before isoprene emission during drought development| indicating a tighter control of the emission at a transcriptional or post-transcriptional level under moderate drought stress| and at both temperatures. A residual isoprene emission was measured when photosynthesis was totally inhibited after 35 days of drought. This photosynthesis-independent emission of isoprene was probably dependent on a cytosolic carbon supply as all the properties of ISPS were drastically inhibited. Isoprene emission was associated with dark respiration during the entire drought stress period| and at both temperatures| indicating that the two processes are sustained by| but do not compete for| the same carbon source. Isoprene emission was directly related to phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase activity in plants grown at 25 degrees C and inversely related in plants grown at 35 degrees C| suggesting a strong temperature control on the regulation of the pyruvate flowing from the cytosol to the plastidic isoprenoid biosynthetic pathway under drought stress and recovery. In re-watered plants| the temperature control on isoprene emission was suppressed| despite complete recovery of photosynthesis and ISPS activity similar to levels in plants subjected to mild drought stress. Our results reveal the overriding effects of drought on isoprene emission| possibly affecting protein level or substrate supply. These effects may largely offset the predicted impact of rising temperatures on the emission of isoprene in terrestrial ecosystems. 9121,2008,5,4,Isotopic evidence for glaciation during the Cretaceous supergreenhouse,The Turonian ( 93.5 to 89.3 million years ago) was one of the warmest periods of the Phanerozoic eon| with tropical sea surface temperatures over 35 degrees C. High- amplitude sea- level changes and positive delta O-18 excursions in marine limestones suggest that glaciation events may have punctuated this episode of extreme warmth. New delta O-18 data from the tropical Atlantic show synchronous shifts similar to 91.2 million years ago for both the surface and deep ocean that are consistent with an approximately 200|000- year period of glaciation| with ice sheets of about half the size of the modern Antarctic ice cap. Even the prevailing supergreenhouse climate was not a barrier to the formation of large ice sheets| calling into question the common assumption that the poles were always ice- free during past periods of intense global warming. 8568,2008,3,3,ITU-T initiatives on climate change,It is estimated that ICTs contribute around 2 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. These percentages are likely to grow as ICTs become more widely available. At the same time| ICTs can be a major linchpin in efforts to combat climate change and serve as a potent cross-cutting tool to limit and ultimately reduce GHG emissions across economic and social sectors. This article looks at the potential role ICTs play at different stages| from contributing to global warming to monitoring it| to developing long-term solutions to mitigate its effects| both directly in the ICT sector and in other sectors such as energy| transport| buildings| and finally to helping adapt to its effects. The article addresses the efforts made by the ITU and its membership to develop new climate-friendly technologies. 8649,2008,2,4,Ixodes ricinus seasonal activity: Implications of global warming indicated by revisiting tick and weather data,A recent climate experiment predicted that average maximum summer temperatures ill southern regions of the British Isles may approach 30 degrees C by the year 2020. An opportunity for retrospective analysis of the implications of such a change for tick phenology and disease transmission was presented by the coincidence of unusually high early summer temperatures in 1976 with the collection of tick data from sites in Ireland where host availability was controlled. Subsequent identification of diapause threshold periods and simulation of temperature-dependent tick development showed that high summer temperatures call cause mass transfer of ticks between development cohorts| resulting in increased activity and therefore increased disease transmission in late autumn and early spring. This Suggests that in northern temperate regions of Europe global warming is likely to cause changes in the seasonal patterns of tick-borne diseases. (c) 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 9254,2008,4,4,Jet-cooled diode laser spectrum and FTIR integrated band intensities of CF(3)Br: rovibrational analysis of 2 nu(5) and nu(2)+nu(3) bands near 9 mu m and cross-section measurements in the 450-2500 cm(-1) region,The high resolution (up to 0.0007 cm(-1)) infrared diode laser spectrum of CF(3)Br (Halon 1301) with natural isotopic abundance has been investigated in the region 1090-1130 cm(-1)| characterized by the presence of the 25 and nu(2) + nu(3) absorptions and several weaker hot bands. The rovibrational analysis of the data| obtained employing a slit-jet system (rotational temperature of about 50 K) together with those recorded at 200 K| led to a complete and accurate set of spectroscopic constants for the bands of both the bromine isotopologues. Integrated band intensities have been obtained for all the absorptions in the spectral range 450-2500 cm(-1). The high resolution data and information concerning the cross-sections of this molecule can be useful for its remote sensing and for better modelling its contribution to global warming. 9052,2008,2,4,King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming,Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology| they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here| we present for a Subantarctic species| king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus)| reliable results on the effect of climate on survival and breeding based on unbanded birds but instead marked by subcutaneous electronic tags. We show that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird. However| the observed effect is complex because it affects penguins at several spatio/temporal levels. Breeding reveals an immediate response to forcing during warm phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation affecting food availability close to the colony. Conversely| adult survival decreases with a remote sea-surface temperature forcing (i.e.| a 2-year lag warming taking place at the northern boundary of pack ice| their winter foraging place). We suggest that this time lag may be explained by the delay between the recruitment and abundance of their prey| adjusted to the particular 1-year breeding cycle of the king penguin. The derived population dynamic model suggests a 9% decline in adult survival for a 0.26 degrees C warming. Our findings suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions. 1060,2008,2,4,Lagged effects of experimental warming and doubled precipitation on annual and seasonal aboveground biomass production in a tallgrass prairie,Global climate change is expected to result in a greater frequency of extreme weather| which can cause lag effects on aboveground net primary production (ANPP). However| our understanding of lag effects is limited. To explore lag effects following extreme weather| we applied four treatments (control| doubled precipitation| 4 degrees C warming| and warming plus doubled precipitation) for 1 year in a randomized block design and monitored changes in ecosystem processes for 3 years in an old-field tallgrass prairie in central Oklahoma. Biomass was estimated twice in the pretreatment year| and three times during the treatment and posttreatment years. Total plant biomass was increased by warming in spring of the treatment year and by doubled precipitation in summer. However| double precipitation suppressed fall production. During the following spring| biomass production was significantly suppressed in the formerly warmed plots 2 months after treatments ceased. Nine months after the end of treatments| fall production remained suppressed in double precipitation and warming plus double precipitation treatments. Also| the formerly warmed plots still had a significantly greater proportion of C(4) plants| while the warmed plus double precipitation plots retained a high proportion of C(3) plants. The lag effects of warming on biomass did not match the temporal patterns of soil nitrogen availability determined by plant root simulator probes| but coincided with warming-induced decreases in available soil moisture in the deepest layers of soil which recovered to the pretreatment pattern approximately 10 months after the treatments ceased. Analyzing the data with an ecosystem model showed that the lagged temporal patterns of effects of warming and precipitation on biomass can be fully explained by warming-induced differences in soil moisture. Thus| both the experimental results and modeling analysis indicate that water availability regulates lag effects of warming on biomass production. 1213,2008,2,3,Lake Tahoe vs. Lake Kinneret phytoplankton: comparison of long-term taxonomic size structure consistency,Both theoretical ecology and lake management practices acutely need quantitative assessment tools for the analysis of structural changes taking place in the plankton community. Size spectrum| a tool allowing such assessment| is usually based on size distributions of organisms irrespective of their taxonomy. The size-frequency distribution of taxonomic units in an assemblage| named by us 'traditional taxonomic size spectrum' (TTSS)| has been applied for over 70 years| but seldom in aquatic ecology. Longterm consistency of phytoplankton TTSS| evidenced even during pronounced ecosystem changes| was described for the subtropical and eutrophic Lake Kinneret| Israel. In the present study| we examine whether consistent TTSS patterns prevail across ecosystems| and apply the TTSS to the phytoplankton of the temperate and oligotrophic Lake Tahoe| USA. A typical annual TTSS pattern was revealed| and its details were analyzed quantitatively by hierarchical cluster analysis. The Tahoe TTSS similarity level during 4 years (Pearson r=0.92 to 0.99) is comparable to that of the Kinneret during its stable period; even for pairs divided by > 20 years| r > 0.8. While the Tahoe TTSS general pattern resembles that of Lake Kinneret| the two lakes are distinguishable by means of cluster analysis. A high similarity (r=0.91) was found between the eight-year averaged TTSSs of the two lakes. The above results let us suppose that the longterm consistency of the aquatic assemblage taxonomic size structure pattern is a general phenomenon. This pattern deserves special attention at times of accelerated global climate change| acerbated by burgeoning anthropogenic impacts. 8676,2008,2,4,Land subsidence in Iran caused by widespread water reservoir overexploitation,The increasing demands upon groundwater resources due to expanding metropolitan and agricultural areas are a serious challenge| particularly in semiarid and arid regions. In Iran| decades of unrestrained groundwater extraction for domestic| agricultural| and industrial use have resulted in a precipitous depletion of this valuable resource. Here we show that the decline in groundwater levels is associated with land-surface deformation on local and regional scales. Combining water-level data with satellite radar observations provides evidence for the prevalence of compacting aquifers in the country. Groundwater level decline is often associated with destruction of the aquifers| which appears to be a common problem in the groundwater basins of central and northeast Iran. Global warming and future climate change will affect arid and semiarid areas in the coming decades| further augmenting hazards associated with groundwater-induced land subsidence. 1188,2008,3,3,Land use change and soil organic carbon dynamics,Historically| soils have lost 40-90 Pg carbon (C) globally through cultivation and disturbance with current rates of C loss due to land use change of about 1.6 +/- 0.8 Pg C y(-1)| mainly in the tropics. Since soils contain more than twice the C found in the atmosphere| loss of C from soils can have a significant effect of atmospheric CO(2) concentration| and thereby on climate. Halting land-use conversion would be an effective mechanism to reduce soil C losses| but with a growing population and changing dietary preferences in the developing world| more land is likely to be required for agriculture. Maximizing the productivity of existing agricultural land and applying best management practices to that land would slow the loss of| or is some cases restore| soil C. There are| however| many barriers to implementing best management practices| the most significant of which in developing countries are driven by poverty. Management practices that also improve food security and profitability are most likely to be adopted. Soil C management needs to considered within a broader framework of sustainable development. Policies to encourage fair trade| reduced subsidies for agriculture in developed countries and less onerous interest on loans and foreign debt would encourage sustainable development| which in turn would encourage the adoption of successful soil C management in developing countries. If soil management is to be used to help address the problem of global warming| priority needs to be given to implementing such policies. 1317,2008,2,4,LAND USE RISK EVALUATIONS ON THE BEKES-CSANAD LOESS PLATEAU,Damage caused by excess waters can be Occurred about 1.8 million hectares| from which 60%| is located in the arable-land in Hungary. Because of global climate change the frequency of excess water inundations related to land use risk may be higher in the near future. The investigated area was the Bekes-Csanad Loess Plateau. In Our study we examined the relation between saturated buffer zones of excess water inundations and land use risks based on CLC50 database. The highest land use risk values were found on those areas which used for extensive agricultural production. Accordingly there is a need for an adequate field specified sustainable agricultural production which can take into consideration the actual risk of excess water inundation with different saturated zones. The results assisted and enabled the land use planning of the inundated and saturated areas by excess water| its well its it could be used for the calculation of different water management and land use scenarios. 8417,2008,3,2,Landfill gas with hydrogen addition - A fuel for SI engines,The recent quest to replace fossil fuels with renewable and sustainable energy sources has increased interest on utilization of landfill and bio gases. It is further augmented due to environment concerns and global warming caused by burning of conventional fossil fuels| energy security concerns and high cost of crude oil| and renewable nature of these gases. The main portion of landfill gas or biogas is comprised of methane and carbon dioxide with some other gases in small proportions. Methane if released directly to the atmosphere causes about 21 times global warming effects than carbon dioxide. Thus landfill gas is generally flared| where the energy recovery is not in place in practice. Using landfill gas to generate energy not only encourages more efficient collection reducing emissions into the atmosphere but also generates revenues for operators and local governments. However| use of landfill gases for energy production is not always perceived as an attractive option because of some disadvantages. Thus it becomes necessary to address these disadvantages involved by studying landfill gases in a technological perspective and motivate utilization of landfill gas for future energy needs. This paper discussed landfill gas as a fuel for a spark ignition engine to produce power in an effective way. It has been shown that though the performance and combustion characteristics of the landfill gas fueled engine deteriorated in comparison with methane operation| increasing compression ratio and advancing spark timing improved the performance of the landfill gas operation in par with methane operation. The effects due to composition changes in the landfill gas were found more pronounced at lean and rich mixture operation than at stoichiometry. In addition| the effects of additions of hydrogen up to 30% in the landfill gas were studied. Addition of even small quantities of hydrogen such as 3-5% delivered better performance improvement particularly at the lean and rich limit operations and extended the operational limits. Additions of hydrogen also improved the combustion characteristics and reduced cyclic variations of landfill gas operations especially at the lean and rich mixtures. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9245,2008,2,4,Landslide Risk Analysis using a New Constitutive Relationship for Granular flow,In this study| landslide potential is investigated| using a new constitutive relationship for granular flow in a numerical model. Unique to this study is an original relationship between soil moisture and the inertial number for soil particles. This numerical model can be applied to arbitrary soil slab profile configurations and to the analysis of natural disasters| such as mudslides| glacier creeping| avalanches| landslips| and other pyroclastic flows. Here the focus is on mudslides. The authors examine the effects of bed slope and soil slab thickness| soil layered profile configuration| soil moisture content| basal sliding| and the growth of vegetation| and show that increased soil moisture enhances instability primarily by decreasing soil strength| together with increasing loading. Moreover| clay soils generally require a smaller relative saturation than sandy soils for sliding to commence. For a stable configuration| such as a small slope and/or dry soil| the basal sliding is absorbed if the perturbation magnitude is small. However| large perturbations can trigger significant-scale mudslides by liquefying the soil slab. The role of vegetation depends on the wet soil thickness and the spacing between vegetation roots. The thinner the saturated soil layer| the slower the flow| giving the vegetation additional time to extract soil moisture and slow down the flow. By analyzing the effect of the root system on the stress distribution| it is shown that closer tree spacing increases the drag effects on the velocity field| provided that the root system is deeper than the shearing zone. Finally| the authors investigated a two-layer soil profile| namely| sand above clay. A significant stress jump occurs at the interface of the two media. 9062,2008,2,4,Large-herbivore distribution and abundance: Intra-and interspecific niche variation in the tropics,Determining the biological and environmental factors that limit the distribution and abundance of organisms is central to our understanding of the niche concept and crucial for predicting how species may respond to large-scale environmental change| such as global warming. However| detailed ecological information for the majority of species has been collected only at a local scale| and insufficient consideration has been given to geographical variation in intraspecific niche requirements. To evaluate the influence of environmental and biological factors on patterns of species distribution and abundance| we conducted a detailed| broadscale study across the tropical savannas of northern Australia on the ecology of three large| sympatric marsupial herbivores (family Macropodidae): the antilopine wallaroo (Macropus antilopinus)| common wallaroo (M. robustus)| and eastern grey kangaroo (M. giganteus). Using information on species abundance| climate|. re history| habitat| and resource availability| we constructed species' habitat models varying from the level of the complete distribution to smaller regional areas. Multiple factors affected macropod abundance| and the importance of these factors was dependent on the spatial scale of analyses. Fire regimes| water availability| geology| and soil type and climate were most important at the large scale| whereas aspects of habitat structure and interspecific species abundance were important at smaller scales. The distribution and abundance of eastern grey kangaroos and common wallaroos were strongly influenced by climate. Our results suggest that interspecific competition between antilopine wallaroos and eastern grey kangaroos may occur. The antilopine wallaroo and eastern grey kangaroo (grazers) preferred more nutrient-rich soils than the common wallaroo (grazer/browser)| which we relate to differences in feeding modes. The abundance of antilopine wallaroos was higher on sites that were burned| whereas the abundance of common wallaroos was higher on unburned sites. Future climate change predicted for Australia has the capacity to seriously affect the abundance and conservation of macropod species in tropical savannas. The results of our models suggest that| in particular| the effects of changing climatic conditions on. re regimes| habitat structure| and water availability may lead to species declines and marked changes in macropod communities. 1170,2008,2,4,Latitudinal patterns in the phenological responses of leaf colouring and leaf fall to climate change in Japan,Aim To estimate the potential effect of global climate change on the phenological responses of plants it is necessary to estimate spatial variations at larger scales. However| previous studies have not estimated latitudinal patterns in the phenological response directly. We hypothesized that the phenological response of plants varies with latitude| and estimated the phenological response to long-term climate change using autumn phenological events that have been delayed by recent climate change. Location Japan. Methods We used a 53-year data set to document the latitudinal patterns in the climate responses of the timing of autumn leaf colouring and fall for two tree species over a wide range of latitudes in Japan (31 to 44 degrees N). We calculated single regression slopes for leaf phenological timing and air temperature across Japan and tested their latitudinal patterns using regression models. The effects of latitude| time and their interaction on the responses of the phenological timings were also estimated using generalized linear mixed models. Results Our results showed that single regression slopes of leaf phenological timing and air temperature in autumn were positive at most stations. Higher temperatures can delay the timing of leaf phenology. Negative relationships were found between the phenological response of leaves to temperature and latitude. Single regression slopes of the phenological responses at lower latitudes were larger than those at higher latitudes. Main Conclusions We found negative relationships between leaf phenological responsiveness and latitude. These findings will be important for predicting phenological timing with global climate change. 8767,2008,3,4,LCA of magnesium production - Technological overview and worldwide estimation of environmental burdens,Metallic magnesium is mostly used in lightweight alloys| one of the main purposes of which being to decrease fuel consumption in automotive applications. Several different production processes are currently used worldwide| and the magnesium production scenario is changing rapidly| with Chinese production increasingly dominating the world market. For the purpose of this paper| a novel approach to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was applied| in which Material Flow Accounting (MFA) and energy-based methods (Embodied Energy| Exergy Analysis and Emergy Synthesis) are integrated and complemented by a detailed description of the environmental hazards associated with emissions from all the different processes. Furthermore| the findings of the assessment are applied to estimate the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and the Acidification Potential (AP) related to the world primary magnesium production in 2007| with an allocation to the producer countries. Results highlight the relevance in terms of environmental impact of the country where the Mg production process takes place| and clearly identify the dominating Chinese Pidgeon process as the least sustainable Mg production chain| despite its growing diffusion: it has the highest environmental burdens as well as material and energy consumption| and the lowest exergy efficiency. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8928,2008,3,4,LCA of soybean meal,Background| Aim and Scope. Soybean meal is an important protein input to the European livestock production| with Argentina being an important supplier. The area cultivated with soybeans is still increasing globally| and so are the number of LCAs where the production of soybean meal forms part of the product chain. In recent years there has been increasing focus on how soybean production affects the environment. The purpose of the study was to estimate the environmental consequences of soybean meal consumption using a consequential LCA approach. The functional unit is 'one kg of soybean meal produced in Argentina and delivered to Rotterdam Harbor'. Materials and Methods. Soybean meal has the co-product soybean oil. In this study| the consequential LCA method was applied| and co-product allocation was thereby avoided through system expansion. In this context| system expansion implies that the inputs and outputs are entirely ascribed to soybean meal| and the product system is subsequently expanded to include the avoided production of palm oil. Presently| the marginal vegetable oil on the world market is palm oil but| to be prepared for fluctuations in market demands| an alternative product system with rapeseed oil as the marginal vegetable oil has been established. EDIP97 (updated version 2.3) was used for LCIA and the following impact categories were included: Global warming| eutrophication| acidification| ozone depletion and photochemical smog. Results. Two soybean loops were established to demonstrate how an increased demand for soybean meal affects the palm oil and rapeseed oil production| respectively. The characterized results from LCA on soybean meal (with palm oil as marginal oil) were 721 g CO2 eq. for global warming potential| 0.3 mg CFC11 eq. for ozone depletion potential| 3.1 g SO2 eq. for acidification potential| -2 g NO3 eq. for eutrophication potential and 0.4 g ethene eq. for photochemical smog potential per kg soybean meal. The average area per kg soybean meal consumed was 3.6 m(2)year. Attributional results| calculated by economic and mass allocation| are also presented. Normalised results show that the most dominating impact categories were: global warming| eutrophication and acidification. The 'hot spot' in relation to global warming| was 'soybean cultivation'| dominated by N2O emissions from degradation of crop residues (e.g.| straw) and during biological nitrogen fixation. In relation to eutrophication and acidification| the transport of soybeans by truck is important| and sensitivity analyses showed that the acidification potential is very sensitive to the increased transport distance by truck. Discussion. The potential environmental impacts (except photochemical smog) were lower when using rapeseed oil as the marginal vegetable oil| because the avoided production of rapeseed contributes more negatively compared with the avoided production of palm oil. Identification of the marginal vegetable oil (palm oil or rapeseed oil) turned out to be important for the result| and this shows how crucial it is in consequential LCA to identify the right marginal product system (e.g.| marginal vegetable oil). Conclusions. Consequential LCAs were successfully performed on soybean meal and LCA data on soybean meal are now available for consequential (or attributional) LCAs on livestock products. The study clearly shows that consequential LCAs are quite easy to handle| even though it has been necessary to include production of palm oil| rapeseed and spring barley| as these production systems are affected by the soybean oil co-product. Recommendations and Perspectives. We would appreciate it if the International journal of Life Cycle Assessment had articles on the developments on| for example| marginal protein| marginal vegetable oil| marginal electricity (related to relevant markets)| marginal heat| marginal cereals and| likewise| on metals and other basic commodities. This will not only facilitate the work with consequential LCAs| but will also increase the quality of LCAs. 1262,2008,2,1,Leaf carbon assimilation in a water-limited world,Over the past 150 years the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has been increasing| largely as a result of land-use change and anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. It is estimated that the atmospheric [CO2] will reach 70Pa by the end of the 21st Century. The most important consequence of this rise in [CO2] is warming the surface temperature of the Earth by 0.4-0.6 degrees C per decade throughout the 21st Century. Increasing [CO2] along with associated changes in temperature will most likely alter the structure and function of agro-ecosystems| affecting their productivity and their role as stable sinks to CO2 sequestration. Both CO2 and temperature are key variables affecting plant growth| development and functions. Moreover| because of the future scenario of higher temperature and evaporative demand| drought occurrences will be increased in frequency| intensity| and erratic pattern. The combination of elevated temperatures and the increased incidence of environmental stress will probably constitute the greatest risk caused by climate change to the agro-ecosystems in arid or semiarid areas of the world. The purpose of this paper is to review the exchange of carbon driving the main ecophysiological processes of plants in response to climate change and environmental stresses. Drought and salinity first affect the acquisition of CO2 by increasing stomatal and mesophyll resistances| and only after cause irreversible damages to the biochemical apparatus. Heat stress denatures thylakoid membranes| but this action may be counteracted by the synthesis of many isoprenoids in the chloroplasts from carbon freshly fixed by photosynthesis. There is rising concern about the impact of environmental stress on tree growth with this future scenario of global climate change. The combination of elevated temperatures and the increased incidence of environmental stress (particularly drought and salinity) will probably constitute the greatest risk caused by global climate change to the forest ecosystems in arid or semiarid areas of the world. 1326,2008,2,4,Leaf gas exchange of understory spruce-fir saplings in relict cloud forests| southern Appalachian Mountains| USA,The southern Appalachian spruce-fir (Picea rubens Sarg. and Abies fraseri (Pursh) Poir.) forest is found only on high altitude mountain tops that receive copious precipitation (>2000 mm year(-1)) and experience frequent cloud immersion. These high-elevation| temperate rain forests are immersed in clouds on similar to 65% of the total growth season days and for 30-40% of a typical summer day| and cloud deposition accounts for up to 50% of their annual water budget. We investigated environmental influences on understory leaf gas exchange and water relations at two sites: Mt. Mitchell| NC (MM; 35 degrees 45'53 '' N| 82 degrees 15'53 '' W| 2028 m elevation) and Whitetop Mtn.| VA (WT; 36 degrees 38'19 '' N| 81 degrees 36'19 '' W| 1685 in elevation). We hypothesized that the cool| moist and cloudy conditions at these sites exert a strong influence on leaf gas exchange. Maximum photosynthesis (A(max)) varied between 1.6 and 4.0 mu mol CO(2) m(-2) s(-1) for both spruce and fir and saturated at irradiances between similar to 200 and 400 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) at both sites. Leaf conductance (g) ranged between 0.05 and 0.25 mol m(-2) s(-1) at MM and between 0.15 and 0.40 mol m(-2) s(-1) at WT and was strongly associated with leaf-to-air vapor pressure difference (LAVD). At both sites| g decreased exponentially as LAVD increased| with an 80-90% reduction in g between 0 and 0.5 kPa. Predawn leaf water potentials remained between -0.25 and -0.5 MPa for the entire summer| whereas late afternoon values declined to between -1.25 and -1.75 MPa by late summer. Thus| leaf gas exchange appeared tightly coupled to the response of g to LAVD| which maintained high water status| even at the relatively low LAVD of these cloud forests. Moreover| the cloudy| humid environment of these refugial forests appears to exert a strong influence on tree leaf gas exchange and water relations. Because global climate change is predicted to increase regional cloud ceiling levels| more research on cloud impacts on carbon gain and water relations is needed to predict future impacts on these relict forests. 8759,2008,3,3,Learning about climate change and implications for near-term policy,Climate change is an issue of risk management. The most important causes for concern are not the median projections of future climate change| but the low-probability| high-consequence impacts. Because the policy question is one of sequential decision making under uncertainty| we need not decide today what to do in the future. We need only to decide what to do today| and future decisions can be revised as we learn more. In this study| we use a stochastic version of the DICE-99 model (Nordhaus WD| Boyer J (2000) Warming the world: economic models of global warming. MIT Press| Cambridge| MA| USA) to explore the effect of different rates of learning on the appropriate level of near-term policy. We show that the effect of learning depends strongly on whether one chooses efficiency (balancing costs and benefits) or cost-effectiveness (stabilizing at a given temperature change target) as the criterion for policy design. Then| we model endogenous learning by calculating posterior distributions of climate sensitivity from Bayesian updating| based on temperature changes that would be observed for a given true climate sensitivity and assumptions about errors| prior distributions| and the presence of additional uncertainties. We show that reducing uncertainty in climate uncertainty takes longer when there is also uncertainty in the rate of heat uptake by the ocean| unless additional observations are used| such as sea level rise. 8736,2008,3,4,Life cycle assessment comparison among different reuse intensities for industrial wooden containers,Goal| scope and background The industrial packages sector has great importance for the transport sector in Europe. These containers| mainly wooden pallets and spools| are subject to European legislation| which promotes their reuse and recycling. This study uses life cycle assessment (LCA) to assess the environmental impact of the current management system in this sector and the benefits and drawbacks of different reuse intensities as a waste prevention strategy as opposed to the recycling option. Materials and methods In this paper| four case studies located in Spain and representative of the wooden package sector in Europe are analysed: high reuse pallet| low reuse pallet| low reuse spool and null reuse spool. For the LCA study cases| the functional unit is that required to satisfy the transport necessity of 1|000 t by road. The impact and energy consumption assessment methods used are CML 2 Baseline 2000 and Cumulative Energy Demand. Data are mostly provided by the leading enterprises and organisations in this sector. Results The paper provides| as a first result| a comprehensive inventory of the systems under study. Secondly| our assessment shows that the systems with higher reuse intensity show a reduction in energy and wood consumption and all the environmental impact categories except for the global warming potential from 34.0% to 81.0% in the pallet study cases and from 50.4% to 72.8% in the spool ones. This reduction is at the expense of the maintenance stage| which on the contrary increases its impact| although it is still relatively small-less than 7% in all the impact categories and flow indicators of the study cases. The highest impact stages are transport| raw material extraction and the process chain. The final disposal and maintenance stages are the lowest impact| contributing at most to less than 30% of the impact in the pallet study cases and 10% in the spool cases. Discussion Wood consumption (WC)| directly related to the number of containers needed to satisfy the functional unit| is the main factor in determining the impact of the stages| especially in the raw materials extraction and process chain stages| assuming that these are undertaken with the same technologies in all the case studies. Other variables| such as the management system| the maintenance index and the final disposal scenario| affect the impact of the remaining stages: transport| maintenance and final disposal. The global warming potential results obtained demonstrate the environmental benefits of using containers made of a renewable resource such as wood instead of using other materials| but these results are not expected to prioritise the lower reuse systems because of their better performance in this category. Conclusions Reuse| a strategy capable of reducing the environmental impacts of the wooden container systems| is preferable to recycling| while the package maintenance tasks are still feasible. Therefore| reuse| combined with recycling as final disposal| should be encouraged to reduce the demand for natural resources and the waste generated. Recommendations Based on these results| attention should be paid to the maintenance stage| which| being the lowest-impact one| could substantially reduce the impact of the remaining stages. 8735,2008,3,4,Life cycle assessment of commercial furniture: a case study of Formway LIFE chair,Background| aims and scope The environmental aspects of companies and their products are becoming more significant in delivering competitive advantage. Formway Furniture| a designer and manufacturer of office furniture products| is a New Zealand-based company that is committed to sustainable development. It manufactures two models of the light| intuitive| flexible and environmental (LIFE) office chair: one with an aluminium base and one with a glass-filled nylon (GFN) base. It was decided to undertake a life cycle assessment (LCA) study of these two models in order to: (1) determine environmental hotspots in the life cycle of the two chairs (goal 1); (2) compare the life cycle impacts of the two chairs (goal 2); and (3) compare alternative potential waste-management scenarios (goal 3). The study also included sensitivity analysis with respect to recycled content of aluminium in the product. Materials and methods The LIFE chair models consist of a mix of metal and plastic components manufactured by selected Formway suppliers according to design criteria. Hence| the research methodology included determining the specific material composition of the two chair models and acquisition of manufacturing data from individual suppliers. These data were compiled and used in conjunction with pre-existing data| specifically from the ecoinvent database purchased in conjunction with the SimaPro7 LCA software| to develop the life cycle inventory of the two chair models. The life cycle stages included in the study extended from raw-material extraction through to waste management. Impact assessment was carried out using CML 2 baseline 2000| the methodology developed by Leiden University's Institute for Environmental Sciences. Results This paper presents results for global warming potential (GWP100). The study showed a significant impact contribution from the raw-material extraction/refinement stage for both chair models; aluminium extraction and refining made the greatest contribution to GWP100. The comparison of the two LIFE chair models showed that the model with the aluminium base had a higher GWP100 impact than the model with the GFN base. The waste-management scenario compared the GWP100 result when (1) both chair models were sent to landfill and (2) steel and aluminium components were recycled with the remainder of the chair sent to landfill. The results showed that the recycling scenario contributed to a reduced GWP100 result. Since production and processing of aluminium was found to be significant| a sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the impact of using aluminium with different recycled contents (0%| 34% and 100%) in both waste-management scenarios; this showed that increased use of recycled aluminium was beneficial. The recycling at end-of-life scenarios was modelled using two different end-of-life allocation approaches| i.e. consequential and attributional| in order to illustrate the variation in results caused by choice of allocation approach. The results using the consequential approach showed that recycling at end-of-life was beneficial| while use of the attributional method led to a similar GWP100 as that seen for the landfill scenario. Discussion The results show that the main hotspot in the life cycle is the raw-material extraction/refinement stage. This can be attributed to the extraction and processing of aluminium| a material that is energy intensive. The LIFE chair model with the aluminium base has a higher GWP100 as it contains more aluminium. Sensitivity analysis pertaining to the recycled content of aluminium showed that use of aluminium with high recycled content was beneficial; this is because production of recycled aluminium is less energy intensive than production of primary aluminium. The waste-management scenario showed that recycling at end-of-life resulted in a significantly lower GWP100 than landfilling at end-of-life. However| this result is dependent upon the modelling approach used for recycling. Conclusions With respect to goal 1| the study found that the raw-material extraction/refinement stage of the life cycle was a significant factor for both LIFE chair models. This was largely due to the use of aluminium in the product. For goal 2| it was found that the LIFE chair model with the aluminium base had a higher GWP100 than the GFN model| again due to the material content of the two models. Results for goal 3 illustrated that recycling at end-of-life is beneficial when using a system expansion (consequential) approach to model recycling; if an attributional 'cut-off' approach is used to model recycling at end-of-life| there is virtually no difference in the results between landfilling and recycling. Sensitivity analysis pertaining to the recycled content of aluminium showed that use of higher recycled contents leads to a lower GWP100 impact. Recommendation and perspectives Most of the GWP100 impact was contributed during the raw-material extraction/refinement stage of the life cycle; thus| the overall impact of both LIFE chair models may be reduced through engaging in material choice and supply chain environmental management with respect to environmental requirements. The study identified aluminium components as a major contributor to GWP100 for both LIFE chair models and also highlighted the sensitivity of the results to its recycled content. Thus| it is recommended that the use of aluminium in future product designs be limited unless it is possible to use aluminium with a high recycled content. With respect to waste management| it was found that a substantial reduction in the GWP100 impact would occur if the chairs are recycled rather than landfilled| assuming an expanding market for aluminium. Thus| recycling the two LIFE chair models at end-of-life is highly recommended. 8999,2008,3,4,Life cycle assessment of conventional and organic milk production in the Netherlands,Production of milk causes environmental side effects| such as emission of greenhouse gases and nutrient enrichment in surface water. Scientific evidence that shows differences in integral environmental impact between milk production systems in the Netherlands was underexposed. In this paper| two Dutch milk production systems| i.e. a conventional and an organic| were compared on their integral environmental impact and hotspots were identified in the conventional and organic milk production chains. Identification of a hotspot provides insight into mitigation options for conventional and organic milk production. Data of commercial farms that participated in two pilot-studies were used and refer to the year 2003. For each farm| a detailed cradle-to-farm-gate life cycle assessment| including on and off farm pollution was performed. Results showed better environmental performance concerning energy use and eutrophication potential per kilogram of milk for organic farms than for conventional farms. Furthermore| higher on-farm acidification potential and global warming potential per kilogram organic milk implies that higher ammonia| methane| and nitrous oxide emissions occur on farm per kilogram organic milk than for conventional milk. Total acidification potential and global warming potential per kilogram milk did not differ between the selected conventional and organic farms. In addition| results showed lower land use per kilogram conventional milk compared with organic milk. In the selected conventional farms| purchased concentrates was found to be the hotspot in off farm and total impact for all impact categories| whereas in the selected organic farms| both purchased concentrates and roughage were found to be the hotspots in off farm impact. We recommend to improve integral environmental performance of milk production by: (1) reducing the use of concentrates ingredients with a high environmental impact| (2) decreasing the use of concentrates per kilogram of milk| and (3) reducing nutrient surpluses by improving farm nutrient flows. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8854,2008,3,3,Life cycle assessment of fuel ethanol from cane molasses in Thailand,Background| aim and scope After China and India| Thailand is considered another emerging market for fuel ethanol in Asia. At present| ethanol in the country is mainly a fermentation/distillery product of cane molasses| although cassava and cane juice are considered other potential raw materials for the fuel. This study aims to evaluate the environmental impacts of substituting conventional gasoline (CG) with molasses-based gasohol in Thailand. Materials and methods The life cycle assessment (LCA) procedure carried out follows three interrelated phases: inventory analysis| characterization and interpretation. The functional unit for the comparison is 1 l gasoline equivalent consumed by a new passenger car to travel a specific distance. Results The results of the study show that molasses-based ethanol (MoE) in the form of 10% blend with gasoline (E10)| along its whole life cycle| consumes less fossil energy (5.3%)| less petroleum (8.1%) and provides a similar impact on acidification compared to CG. The fuel| however| has inferior performance in other categories (e.g. global warming potential| nutrient enrichment and photochemical ozone creation potential) indicated by increased impacts over CG. Discussion In most cases| higher impacts from the upstream of molasses-based ethanol tend to govern its net life cycle impacts relative to CG. This makes the fuel blend less environmentally friendly than CG for the specific conditions considered. However| as discussed later| this situation can be improved by appropriate changes in energy carriers. Conclusions The LCA procedure helps identify the key areas in the MoE production cycle where changes are required to improve environmental performance. Specifically| they are: (1) use of coal as energy source for ethanol conversion| (2) discharge of distillery spent wash into an anaerobic pond| and (3) open burning of cane trash in sugar cane production. Recommendations and perspectives Measures to improve the overall life cycle energy and environmental impacts of MoE are: (1) substituting biomass for fossil fuels in ethanol conversion| (2) capturing CH(4) from distillery spent wash and using it as an energy supply| and (3) utilizing cane trash for energy instead of open burning in fields. 9038,2008,3,3,Life cycle assessment of fuel ethanol from Cassava in Thailand,Goal and Scope. A well-to-wheel analysis has been conducted for cassava-based ethanol (CE) in Thailand. The aim of the analysis is to assess the potentials of CE in the form of gasohol E10 for promoting energy security and reducing environmental impacts in comparison with conventional gasoline (CG). Method. In the LCA procedure| three separate but interrelated components: inventory analysis| characterization and interpretation were performed for the complete chain of the fuel life cycle. To compare gasohol E10 and CG| this study addressed their impact potentials per gasoline-equivalent litre| taking into account the performance difference between gasohol and gasoline in an explosion motor. Results and Discussions. The results obtained show that CE in the form of E10| along its whole life cycle| reduces certain environmental loads compared to CG. The percentage reductions relative to CG are 6.1% for fossil energy use| 6.0% for global warming potential| 6.8% for acidification| and 12.2% for nutrient enrichment. Using biomass in place of fossil fuels for process energy in the manufacture of ethanol leads to improved overall life cycle energy and environmental performance of ethanol blends relative to CG. Conclusions and Outlook. The LCA brings to light the key areas in the ethanol production cycle that researchers and technicians need to work on to maximize ethanol's contribution to energy security and environmental sustainability. 9165,2008,3,3,Life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from irrigated maize and their significance in the value chain,The life cycle assessment component of this multi-institutional project determined greenhouse gas emissions in pre-farm| on-farm and post- farm activities involved in the use of maize for the manufacture of corn chips. When the emissions were expressed in terms of carbon dioxide-equivalents (CO2-e)| pre-farm emissions comprised similar to 6% of the life cycle emissions| on-farm activities comprised similar to 36% and post- farm activities accounted for similar to 58% of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions. We used one 400 g packet of corn chips as the functional unit. The single largest source of greenhouse emissions was the emission of nitrous oxide on the farm as a result of fertiliser application (0.126 kg CO2-e per packet). The next largest was electricity used during the manufacture of the corn chips (0.086 kg CO2-e per packet). The manufacture of the packaging (box plus packet| being 0.06 kg CO2-e) was the next largest source and then the oil for frying the corn chips (0.048 kg CO2-e per packet). Greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser application were primarily nitrous oxide (N2O)| which has a global warming potential of 310 kg CO2-e/ kg N2O. In typical irrigated farm systems| these emissions| when converted to CO2-e| are almost three times more than the greenhouse gas emissions that result from energy used to pump water. However| pumping irrigation water from deep bores currently produces greenhouse gas emissions that are almost three times those from irrigation using surface waters. Greenhouse gas emissions from the use of tractors on typical farms are about one-third of the emissions from pumping water. Farm management techniques can be used to increase soil carbon and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. If farms that currently burn stubble were to implement stubble incorporation then| in the absence of other changes to the supply chain| they will achieve a 30% reduction in emissions from 'cradle to farm-gate'. In absolute terms| when the soil carbon dioxide is included (even though soil carbon dioxide in this instance is not counted as a greenhouse gas in national and international greenhouse gas inventories)| our measurements indicate that carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions from farms that produce maize using stubble incorporation are 56% lower than emissions from farms that burn their stubble. The pre-farm and on-farm operations add $0.40 value per kg of CO2-e greenhouse gas emitted. Post-farm processing added $2 value per kg of CO2-e greenhouse gas emitted. Processing maize for corn chips emitted more greenhouse gases than processing the same amount of corn for starch or ethanol. 8523,2008,3,4,Life cycle assessment of integrated food chains-a Swedish case study of two chicken meals,Background| aims| and scope Food is a vital human need that not only provides essential nutrition but is also a key part of our social life as well as being a valued sensory experience. However| food| or rather the production chain of food| from primary production (agriculture/aquaculture/fishing) to consumer and beyond| also results in some form of environmental impact| as does transport between steps. There are several life cycle assessment studies of food products| most of them analysing the impact of the food chain of single food items. Still| detailed studies of complete meals are less frequent in the literature. In the Swedish study presented in this article| the environmental impacts of two different chicken meals (homemade and semi-prepared) were analysed. The aim of the study was to gain knowledge of the environmental impact of integrated food chains and also to explore the effect of improvement measures in the post-farm systems. To this end| two chicken meals were chosen for analysis| with two scenarios for each meal; the first scenario reflects the present conditions of the food chain| and the second scenario incorporates a number of improvement actions in the stages after the farm. Materials and methods Input data to the model were based mainly on previous life cycle assessment (LCA) studies of Swedish food products and studies on wastage and consumer transport. Food engineering data and information from producing companies were used for modelling the industries. The improvement scenario was constructed using insight from a preceding LCA study of a meatball meal (Sonesson et al.| Ambio| 34:411-418| 2005a) along with goals set out by a Swedish agreement between representatives from national and regional government| food industry sectors and retailers. The impact assessment was conducted according to Lindfors et al. (Nordic guidelines on life cycle assessment| The Nordic Council of Ministers| Copenhagen| Denmark| 1995)| and the following environmental effects were included: global warming potential| eutrophication potential| acidification potential| photochemical ozone creation potential| and use of primary energy carriers and secondary energy. Results In terms of energy use| the largest part is used in the steps after the farm for both meal types. Hence| the changes made in the improvement scenario have a significant impact on the total energy use. For the homemade and semi-prepared meal| the reduction is 15% and 20% respectively| not only due to less consumer transport and packaging but also reduction in industry (semi-prepared). Agriculture is also a significant contributor to emissions of greenhouse gases and eutrophying emissions; for the homemade meal| around 40% of the greenhouse gases originate from agriculture| and for the semi-prepared meal| the figure is 50%. The improvement actions with the greatest reduction in greenhouse gases are| again| less consumer transport and| in the case of the semi-prepared meal| the reduction in energy use in industry. Regarding eutrophication| more than 90% of the emissions originate from agriculture. Hence| the only improvement action that has an effect here is the utilisation of raw material downstream in the production chain; a slight reduction in waste still gives a notable reduction in overall eutrophic emissions. Discussion There are two significant areas of research to reduce the impact of meals that are not explored in this study: choice of meal components and production methods in agriculture. However| the aim with this study was to explore if there are further ways of reducing the impact without going into these very complex areas| and our conclusion is that there are effective ways in the post-farm chain to cut emissions that| together with choices of diet and agricultural research| can significantly reduce the impact of our food consumption. Conclusions Actions in the post-farm chain that can significantly reduce the environmental impact of a meal are less food thrown away in the household| fewer car trips to the supermarket (e.g. only once a week) and| for semi-prepared food products| more efficient energy use in the food industry. The study shows that consumer actions prove just as important as industrial actions. Recommendations and perspectives Further research is needed to understand the mechanism for the disposal of food| i.e. the reasons for food being wasted| and the relationship between shopping frequency| retail location| size of packaging| etc. in order to reduce the impact of waste and consumer transport. 8566,2008,3,4,Life cycle assessment of waste paper management: The importance of technology data and system boundaries in assessing recycling and incineration,The significance of technical data| as well as the significance of system boundary choices| when modelling the environmental impact from recycling and incineration of waste paper has been studied by a life cycle assessment focusing oil global warming potentials. The consequence of choosing a specific set of data for the reprocessing technology| the virgin paper manufacturing technology and the incineration technology| as well as the importance of the recycling rate Was Studied. Furthermore| the system was expanded to include forestry and to include fossil fuel energy substitution from saved biomass| in order to study the importance of the system boundary choices. For recycling| the choice of virgin paper manufacturing data is most important| but the results show that also the impacts from the reprocessing technologies fluctuate greatly. For the overall results the choice of the technology data is of importance when comparing recycling including virgin paper Substitution with incineration including energy Substitution. Combining an environmentally high or low performing recycling technology with an environmentally high or low performing incineration technology can give quite different results. The modelling showed that recycling of paper| from a life cycle point of view| is environmentally equal or better than incineration with energy recovery only when the recycling technology is at a high environmental performance level. However| the modelling also showed that expanding the system to include Substitution of fossil fuel energy by production of energy from the saved biomass associated with recycling will give a completely different result. In this case recycling is always more beneficial than incineration| thus increased recycling is desirable. Expanding the system to include forestry was shown to have a minor effect on the results. As assessments are often performed with a set choice of data and a set recycling rate| it is questionable how useful the results from this kind of LCA are for a policy maker. The high significance of the system boundary choices stresses the importance of scientific discussion on how to best address system analysis of recycling| for paper and other recyclable materials. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9242,2008,3,3,Life Cycle Assessment on a Bus Body Component Based on Hemp Fiber and PTP (R),The application of renewable raw materials in the automotive sector became more and more interesting in the last years. For the first time| a material system based on natural fibers and PTP (R)| a vegetable based thermoset resin| was produced and manufactured into a bus body component by Sheet-Moulding-Compound-technology. The Life Cycle Assessment on this component based on renewable raw materials shows advantages especially in the categories fossil resources and global warming. It can be expected that further concepts of development and optimization lead to a more efficient use of materials and so to an additional reduction of environmental impacts. 8925,2008,3,4,Life cycle environmental impacts of electricity production by solarthermal power plants in Spain,The objectives of the analysis reported in this paper are to evaluate the environmental impacts of the electricity produced in a 17 MW solar thermal plant with central tower technology and a 50 MW solar thermal plant with parabolic trough technology| to identify the opportunities to improve the systems in order to reduce their environmental impacts| and to evaluate the environmental impact resulting from compliance with the solar thermal power objectives in Spain. The methodology chosen is the life cycle assessment (LCA)| described in the international standard series ISO 14040-43. The functional unit has been defined as the production of 1 kW h of electricity. Energy use needed to construct| operate| and dismantle the power plants is estimated. These results are used to calculate the "energy payback time" of these technologies. Results were around 1. yr for both power plants. Environmental impacts analyzed include the global warming impacts along the whole life cycle of the power plants| which were around 200 g/kW h generated. Finally| the environmental impacts associated with the compliance of the solar thermal power objectives in Spain were computed. Those figures were then used to estimate the avoided environmental impacts including the potential CO(2) emission savings that could be accomplished by these promotion policies. These savings amounted for 634 kt Of CO(2) equiv./yr. 9192,2008,3,4,Life cycle GHG assessment of fossil fuel power plants with carbon capture and storage,The evaluation of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from power generation with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a critical factor in energy and policy analysis. The current paper examines life cycle emissions from three types of fossil-fuel-based power plants| namely supercritical pulverized coal (super-PC)| natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)| with and without CCS. Results show that| for a 90% CO2 capture efficiency| life cycle GHG emissions are reduced by 75-84% depending on what technology is used. With GHG emissions less than 170 g/kWh| IGCC technology is found to be favorable to NGCC with CCS. Sensitivity analysis reveals that| for coal power plants| varying the CO2 capture efficiency and the coal transport distance has a more pronounced effect on life cycle GHG emissions than changing the length of CO2 transport pipeline. Finally| it is concluded from the current study that while the global warming potential is reduced when MEA-based CO2 capture is employed| the increase in other air pollutants such as NOx and NH3 leads to higher eutrophication and acidification potentials. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9108,2008,3,4,Life cycle optimization of building energy systems,A life cycle optimization model intended to potentially reduce the environmental impacts of energy use in commercial buildings is presented. A combination of energy simulation| life cycle assessment| and operations research techniques are used to develop the model. In addition to conventional energy systems| such as the electric grid and a gas boiler| cogeneration systems which concurrently generate power and heat are investigated as an alternative source of energy. Cogeneration systems appeared to be an attractive alternative to conventional systems when considering life cycle environmental criteria. Internal combustion engine and microturbine (MT) cogeneration systems resulted in a reduction of up to 38% in global warming potential compared with conventional systems| while solid oxide fuel cell and MT cogeneration systems resulted in a reduction of up to 94% in tropospheric ozone precursor potential (TOPP). Results include a Pareto-optimal frontier between reducing costs and reducing the selected environmental indicators. 1058,2008,2,4,Life history variation across a riverine landscape: intermediate levels of disturbance favor sexual reproduction in the ant-dispersed herb Ranunculus ficaria,Global climate change can fundamentally alter disturbance regimes across landscapes| but little is known about how species adjust their life histories to shifts in disturbance regimes. In plants| dispersal by seeds may permit rapid re-colonization under frequent disturbances| but often seed-dispersing animals may be absent and local dispersal by vegetative diaspores may be a more efficient means of occupying open space in the vicinity of the plant. We tested the effect of disturbances due to inundation on the investment in seed production by the ant-dispersed plant| Ranunculus ficaria ssp. bulbifer. During seed ripening we collected 392 plants within a landscape mosaic of 39 sites with different levels of inundation. We measured the mass of fruits and other tissues (leafs| roots| bulbils| stalks) and described plant growth form. We found that fruit numbers and masses were more variable among plants than numbers and masses of other tissues. We then standardized fruit mass against the mass of other tissues and other growth-form parameters. Standardized fruit mass showed a highly significantly hump-shaped relationship with the level of inundation disturbances. This pattern was consistent across 12 small-scale transects and thus not confounded by spatial autocorrelation within landscapes. The pattern was also confirmed by analyses that simultaneously accounted for disturbance and morphological co-variables. We thus conclude that plants invested most heavily into reproduction by seeds under intermediate levels of disturbance. Under intermediate disturbance| seeds are beneficial for rapidly re-colonizing open space after disturbance while the seed-dispersers are still available. The life history of mutualists such as ant-dispersed plants and ants may thus change across a landscape| reflecting small-scale variation in the disturbance regime. 8912,2008,3,3,Life-cycle assessment of straw use in bio-ethanol production: A case study based on biophysical modelling,Cereal straw| a by-product in the production of agricultural crops| is considered as a potentially large source of energy supply with an estimated value of 47 x 10(18)J worldwide. However| there is some debate regarding the actual amounts of straw which could be removed from arable soils without jeopardizing their quality| as well as the potential trade-offs in the overall straw-to-energy chain compared to the use of fossil energy sources. Here| we used a deterministic model of C and N dynamics in soil-crop systems to simulate the effect of straw removal under various sets of soil| climate and crop management conditions in northeastern France. Model results in terms of nitrate leaching| soil C variations| nitrous oxide and ammonia emissions were subsequently inputted into the life-cycle assessment (LCA) of a particular bio-energy chain in which straw was used to generate heat and power in a plant producing bio-ethanol from wheat grains. Straw removal had little influence on simulated environmental emissions in the field| and straw incorporation in soil resulted in a sequestration of only 5-10% of its C in the long term (30 years). The LCA concluded to significant benefits of straw use for energy in terms of global warming and use of non-renewable energy. only the eutrophication and atmospheric acidification impact categories were slightly unfavourable to straw use in some cases| with a difference of 8% at most relative to straw incorporation. These results based on a novel methodology thereby confirm the environmental benefits of substituting fossil energy with straw. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8815,2008,2,4,Life-history trade-offs influence disease in changing climates: Strategies of an amphibian pathogen,Life-history trade-offs allow many animals to maintain reproductive fitness across a range of climatic conditions. When used by parasites and pathogens| these strategies may influence patterns of disease in changing climates. The chytrid fungus| Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis| is linked to global declines of amphibian populations. Short-term growth in culture is maximal at 17 degrees-25 degrees C. This has been used in an argument that global warming| which increases the time that amphibians spend at these temperatures in cloud-covered montane environments| has led to extinctions. Here we show that the amphibian chytrid responds to decreasing temperatures with trade-offs that increase fecundity as maturation rate slows and increase infectivity as growth decreases. At 17 degrees-25 degrees C| infectious zoospores encyst (settle and develop a cell wall) and develop into the zoospore-producing stage (zoosporangium) faster| while at 7 degrees-10 degrees C| greater numbers of zoospores are produced per zoosporangium; these remain infectious for a longer period of time. We modeled the population growth of B. dendrobatidis through time at various temperatures using delayed differential equations and observational data for four parameters: developmental rate of thalli| fecundity| rate of zoospore encystment| and rate of zoospore survival. From the models| it is clear that life-history trade-offs allow B. dendrobatidis to maintain a relatively high long-term growth rate at low temperatures| so that it maintains high fitness across a range of temperatures. When a seven-day cold shock is simulated| the outcome is intermediate between the two constant temperature regimes| and in culture| a sudden drop in temperature induces zoospore release. These trade-offs can be ecologically important for a variety of organisms with complex life histories| including pathogenic microorganisms. The effect of temperature on amphibian mortality will depend on the interaction between fungal growth and host immune function and will be modified by host ecology| behavior| and life history. These results demonstrate that B. dendrobatidis populations can grow at high rates across a broad range of environmental temperatures and help to explain why it is so successful in cold montane environments. 8754,2008,3,4,Litter carbon dynamics analysis in forests in an and ecosystem with a model incorporating the physical removal of litter,Arid land afforestation could be a countermeasure for global warming| and a project for developing and evaluating techniques for and land afforestation and reforestation has been carried out in Sturt Meadows near Leonora| Western Australia. As a part of this project| the litter carbon dynamics were investigated at three Acacia aneura forest sites| using a litter carbon model incorporating the physical removal of litter by winds| floods| etc. Based on the field observation data of above ground plant biomass| annual litter fall| existing amount of the litter| and also litter decomposition rate constants separately obtained for leaf litter and woody litter| we investigated the carbon flows at these forest sites| especially the annual amount of litter physically removed from the sites by floods or winds. As a result| it is estimated that annual physical removal of litter amounted to 59-75% of the annual litter fall| and the litter removal rate constants were from 0.38 to 0.55 year(-1). Roughly one third to a half of the existing litter is removed annually from the sites. There was also a tendency that as the canopy coverage decreases| the litter removal rate constant increases. For this type of ecosystem| which is susceptible to the run-off of water and strong winds| we consider the taking into account of the physical removal of the litter is essential for analyzing the carbon dynamics in the ecosystem. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8400,2008,2,3,Local adaptation in brown trout early life-history traits: implications for climate change adaptability,Knowledge of local adaptation and adaptive potential of natural populations is becoming increasingly relevant due to anthropogenic changes in the environment| such as climate change. The concern is that populations will be negatively affected by increasing temperatures without the capacity to adapt. Temperature-related adaptability in traits related to phenology and early life history are expected to be particularly important in salmonid fishes. We focused on the latter and investigated whether four populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta) are locally adapted in early life-history traits. These populations spawn in rivers that experience different temperature conditions during the time of incubation of eggs and embryos. They were reared in a common-garden experiment at three different temperatures. Quantitative genetic differentiation (Q(ST)) exceeded neutral molecular differentiation (F(ST)) for two traits| indicating local adaptation. A temperature effect was observed for three traits. However| this effect varied among populations due to locally adapted reaction norms| corresponding to the temperature regimes experienced by the populations in their native environments. Additive genetic variance and heritable variation in phenotypic plasticity suggest that although increasing temperatures are likely to affect some populations negatively| they may have the potential to adapt to changing temperature regimes. 8957,2008,2,3,Local impact of increasing Co2 in the atmosphere on maize crop water productivity in the Drome valley| France,This study was conducted to assess local impacts of doubling of the rate of atmospheric CO(2) (660 ppm) on irrigation demand and maize crop water productivity in the Drome valley (SE France). This region is characterised by severe water shortages in the summer season. A comparison of historical records| between the periods of 1990-2001 and 1960-89| shows that in July| the mean temperature increased by 2 degrees C and the river stream flow diminished by 16%. At peak periods| the maize irrigation requirements represent 80% of the seasonal irrigation demand. The ARPEGE-CLIMAT atmospheric model| regionalised at high resolution on the Rhone catchment| was used to calculate monthly climate variations. For a doubled rate of CO(2)| in July| an increase of 4 T in average temperature and a decrease of 30% of rainfall are expected. Monthly climate variations were introduced into the stochastic weather generator LARS-WG to simulate local daily climate scenarios for present (1 x CO(2)) and future (2 x CO(2)) climates. Then| the STICS crop model was applied to simulate the direct and indirect effects of increasing atmospheric CO(2) on irrigation demand and maize crop production. Several simulation conditions| such as soil types| sowing dates and water stress levels| were studied for current climate and future climate scenarios. Principal results show that global warming increases water irrigation demand by 14%; lowers the maize cultivation cycle by 20%; and reduces the yield by 15%. On the other hand| a direct increase in CO(2) concentration induces an average yield increase of 18%; these opposite effects balance the maize yield. The maize crop water productivity increases by 13% but it depends greatly on the water stress level. Similarly| earlier sowing dates allow earlier irrigation and a reduction of the water application depth by 40 turn in peak water demand periods and low water availability. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 8491,2008,2,2,Long-term effects of biogeophysical and biogeochemical interactions between terrestrial biosphere and climate under anthropogenic climate change,A complex earth system model| simulating atmosphere and ocean dynamics| marine biogeochemistry| terrestrial vegetation and ice sheets| was used to study feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and climate with a set of long-term climate change ensemble experiments. CO(2) emissions were assigned according to historical data and the IPCC SRES scenarios B1| A1B and A2| followed by an exponential decay of the emissions for the period 2100-3000. The experiments give a reasonable reconstruction of the measured CO(2) concentrations between 1750 and 2000. Maximum atmospheric CO(2) concentrations of 520 ppm (B1)| 860 ppm (A1B) and 1680 ppm (A2) were reached between 2200 and 2500. Additional experiments were performed with CO(2) emissions and suppressed climate change| as well as an experiment with a prescribed land surface. The experiments were repeated with the vegetation model driven offline| to investigate the effects of climate and CO(2) changes separately. The biogeochemical and biogeophysical interactions between terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere were quantified and compared. A decrease of albedo at high latitudes was the most important biogeophysical change. For the A2 scenario experiment| it causes an additional temperature increase of 1 to 2 K for some high latitude regions by the year 3000| but the changes are minor compared to the heating due to CO(2) increase. The terrestrial biosphere takes up between 15 and 30% of the CO(2) emissions| depending on the scenario and the period considered. The carbon is stored in the tropics and subtropics| where carbon is stored fast| and in the high latitudes| where carbon storage| partly due to forest expansion| is Much slower. By the year 3000| the storage of terrestrial carbon results in a decrease of atmospheric CO(2) concentration of 400 ppm| which in turn decreases the global temperature increase by 0.4 K. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8411,2008,2,3,Long-term evolution of the cold point tropical tropopause: Simulation results and attribution analysis,The height| pressure| and temperature of the cold point tropical tropopause are examined in three 140 year simulations of a coupled chemistry climate model. Tropopause height increases approximately steadily in the simulations at a mean rate of 63 9 +/- 3 m/decade (2 sigma confidence interval). The pressure trend changes near the year 2000 from -1.03 +/- 0.30 hPa/decade in the past to -0.55 +/- 0.06 hPa/decade for the future. The trend in tropopause temperature changes even more markedly from -0.13 +/- 0.07 K/decade in the past to +0.254 +/- 0.014 K/decade in the future. The tropopause data were fit using regression by terms representing total column ozone| tropical mean sea surface temperatures| and tropical mass upwelling. Tropopause height and pressure closely follow the upwelling term| whereas tropopause temperature is primarily related to sea surface temperature and ozone. The change in tropopause temperature trend near the year 2000 is related to the change in the sign of the ozone trend with the sea surface temperature having an increased role after 2040. A conceptual model is used to estimate tropopause changes. The results confirm the regression analysis in showing the importance of upper tropospheric warming (connected with sea surface temperature) and stratospheric cooling (connected with CO(2) and O(3)). In the past| global warming and ozone depletion have opposite effects on the tropopause temperature| which decreases slightly. For the future simulation| global warming and ozone recovery reinforce which increases the tropopause temperature. In particular| future tropopause change is found not to be an indicator of climate change alone. 8691,2008,2,4,Long-term trends in sunshine duration over Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in Southwest China for 1961-2005,Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (YGP)| a low latitude highland region| covers the two provinces of Yunnan and Guizhou in Southwest China| where a cooling trend in the annual mean surface air temperature since the mid-20th century was reported as a notable phenomenon of regional climate against the global warming. In this study on the regional climate| we applied the data of sunshine duration and cloud amount from 184 stations across the YGP from year 1961 to 2005. It was found that| over this 45 year period| annual sunshine duration decreased mostly north of 24 degrees N on the YGP with the negative trends reaching -11.8% per decade| while during the same period it increased with the positive trends reaching +3.5% per decade at the stations concentrated on the southwestern YGP. An overall decline in annual sunshine duration over the northern YGP dramatically accelerated from the 1970s to 80s with its maximum rate in the 1980s| but has remarkably decelerated since the 1990s so that going into the 21st century the annual sunshine duration has ceased or even reversed its downward tendency. The evolution of annual mean cloud amount on the YGP was shown to be insignificant and even in decline over the 45 years| exerting less of an influence on the decreasing trends in the annual sunshine duration. The consistent patterns of sunshine duration trends and surface temperature changes on the YGP support the hypothesis that aerosol loading in the atmosphere could be involved in the surface cooling trend. 1339,2008,2,4,Long-term trends in the timing of breeding and brood size in the Red-Backed Shrike Lanius collurio in the Czech Republic| 1964-2004,Climate change has affected breeding dates and clutch sizes in many bird species. To date| most of the studies aimed at assessing the effects of climate change on these phenological events in birds have been on hole-nesting species and the changes linked either to local climate variation or to some large-scale composite variables| such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Relatively less is known about the climate responses of open-nesting birds and on the relative roles of climate variables at different scales. Using bird ringing records covering a time span of 41 years| we documented shifts in the timing of breeding and brood size in a long-distance migrant| the Red-Backed Shrike (Lanius collurio) from a central European population. We found a 3- to 4-day shift towards earlier breeding and an increase in brood size by approximately 0.3 nestlings since 1964. The Red-Backed Shrikes start to breed in May and rear the first nestlings in June. During the period 1964-2004| temperatures in May significantly increased| while the increase in June temperatures was not significant. Simultaneous tests on the influence of local climate variables and the NAO index revealed a better performance of local climate. The increasing temperature in May was positively associated with the advancement of breeding. Similarly| at a local scale| higher May temperatures were followed by larger brood sizes| while a high amount of rainfall had a strong negative effect. 8430,2008,2,4,Long-Term Trends toward Earlier Breeding of Japanese Amphibians,Recently| declines in amphibian populations all over the world have been reported. Global warming has the potential to become one of the most important causes for those declines| because reproductive activities of amphibians are affected severely by temperature and rainfall. It has been reported that climate warming has promoted a long-term tendency toward earlier breeding among amphibian populations in Europe and North America. However| some studies have not supported such a long-term change in the timing of amphibian breeding in those areas. We analyzed long-term data sets (12- to 31-year period) on the date of first spawning for four populations of three Japanese amphibians (Hynobius tokyoensis| Rana ornativentris| and Rhacophorus arboreus) in the suburbs of Tokyo and detected a significant trend toward earlier breeding in all populations examined. We also detected that the date of first spawning was correlated strongly with the mean monthly temperature just before the breeding season for each population examined. Given that the long-term trend of warming in the study district was significant| our investigation demonstrated that climate warming has affected the timing of breeding in at least some species or populations of amphibians in East Asia. 1294,2008,3,2,Lost in translation? United States television news coverage of anthropogenic climate change| 1995-2004,Eminent climate scientists have come to consensus that human influences are significant contributors to modern global climate change. This study examines coverage of anthropogenic climate change in United States ( U. S.) network television news - ABC World News Tonight| CBS Evening News and NBC Nightly News - and focuses on the application of the journalistic norm of 'balance' in coverage from 1995 through 2004. This study also examines CNN WorldView| CNN Wolf Blitzer Reports and CNN NewsNight as illustrations of cable news coverage. Through quantitative content analysis| results show that 70% of U. S. television news segments have provided 'balanced' coverage regarding anthropogenic contributions to climate change vis-a-vis natural radiative forcing| and there has been a significant difference between this television coverage and scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic climate change from 1996 through 2004. Thus| by way of the institutionalized journalistic norm of balanced reporting| United States television news coverage has perpetrated an informational bias by significantly diverging from the consensus view in climate science that humans contribute to climate change. Troubles in translating this consensus in climate science have led to the appearance of amplified uncertainty and debate| also then permeating public and policy discourse. 8784,2008,3,4,Low-damage low-k etching with an environmentally friendly CF3I Plasma,The feasibility of etching Cu/low-k interconnects by using a low global warming potential CF3I plasma was studied. Low-damage etching was done and porous SiOC (p-SiOC| k < 2.6) film with low roughness was produced. Exposing p-SiOC film to CF3I plasma was found to suppress the decrease in the CH3 group and the increase in the k value compared to those of conventional CF4 and C4F6 plasmas. These effects are due to the low UV intensity and small amount of F radicals of CF3I plasma. The authors also found that the etching profile of CF3I plasma was comparable with that of CF4 plasma. Since the etching selectivity (p-SiOC/ArF photoresist) of CF3I plasma is higher than that of CF4 plasma| the remaining photoresist thickness increases after etching| thus suppressing line edge roughness (LER). The decreased LER mitigated degradation of IV and time dependent dielectric breakdown characteristics in Cu interconnects. They also found that the roughness on the bottom surface of the p-SiOC trench was reduced. These benefits are due to CF3I plasma's low reactivity with the carbon in photoresists and p-SiOC films. Based on these findings| they believe that the environmentally friendly CF3I gas has great promise as a p-SiOC etching material. (C) 2008 American Vacuum Society. 9069,2008,2,4,Macroinvertebrate assemblages in 25 high alpine ponds of the Swiss National Park (Cirque of Macun) and relation to environmental variables,High-altitude freshwater ecosystems and their biocoenosis are ideal sentinel systems to detect global change. In particular| pond communities are likely to be highly responsive to climate warming. For this reason| the Swiss National Park has included ponds as part of a long-term monitoring programme of the high-alpine Macun cirque. This cirque covers 3.6 km(2)| has a mean altitude of 2|660 m a.s.l.| and includes a hydrographic system composed of a stream network and more than 35 temporary and permanent ponds. The first two steps in the programme were to (i) make an inventory of the macroinvertebrates of the waterbodies in the Macun cirque| and (ii) relate the assemblages to local or regional environmental variables. Sampling was conducted in 25 ponds between 2002 and 2004. The number of taxa characterising the region (Macun cirque) was low| represented by 47 lentic taxa. None of them was endemic to the Alps| although several species were cold stenothermal. Average pond richness was low (11.3 taxa). Assemblages were dominated by Chironomidae (Diptera)| and Coleoptera and Oligochaeta were also relatively well represented. Other groups| which are frequent in lowland ponds| had particularly poor species richness (Trichoptera| Heteroptera) or were absent (Gastropoda| Odonata| Ephemeroptera). Macroinvertebrate assemblages (composition| richness) were only weakly influenced by local environmental variables. The main structuring processes were those operating at regional level and| namely| the connectivity between ponds| i.e. the presence of a physical connection (tributary) and/or small geographical distance between ponds. The results suggest that during the long-term monitoring of the Macun ponds (started in 2005)| two kinds of change will affect macroinvertebrate assemblages. The first change is related to the natural dynamics| with high local-scale turnover| involving the metapopulations characterising the Macun cirque. The second change is related to global warming| leading to higher local and regional richness through an increase in the number of colonisation events resulting from the upward shift of geographical ranges of species. At the same time the cold stenothermal species from Macun will be subject to extinction. 1300,2008,3,3,Management effects on soil carbon dioxide fluxes under semiarid Mediterranean conditions,Losses of soil organic carbon (SOC) have contributed to CO2 emissions from soils to the atmosphere and to global climate change. We hypothesized that in semiarid agroecosystems of the Mediterranean region| a shift from the traditional management system (including conventional tillage [CT] and a cereal-fallow rotation) to a more conservative system| including no-till (NT) and continuous cropping| could reduce CO2 emissions during the cropping season. Thus| in this study| we studied the effects of tillage and cropping systems on C inputs and soil CO2 fluxes during three cropping seasons at three different sites in the Ebro River valley (northeast Spain). Carbon inputs ranged from 650 to 6000 kg ha(-1) and seasonal average CO2 flux ranged from 0.10 to 1.76 g CO2 m(-2) h(-1) . Differences in rainfall led to marked differences in C inputs and soil fluxes among growing seasons. Although differences among tillage treatments were weak| CO2 fluxes under NT were always lower. Intensification of cropping systems led to an increase in C input. A move from CT to NT together with cropping intensification is suitable to increase C inputs and to reduce soil CO2 fluxes in semiarid Mediterranean agroecosystems. 8719,2008,2,4,Managing animal disease risk in Australia: the impact of climate change,Climate change is one of a number of factors that are likely to affect the future of Australian agriculture| animal production and animal health| particularly when associated with other factors such as environmental degradation| intensive animal production| an increasing human population| and expanding urbanisation. Notwithstanding the harshness and variability of Australia's climate| significant livestock industries have been developed| with the majority of products from such industries exported throughout the world. A critical factor in achieving market access has been an enviable animal health status| which is underpinned by first class animal health services with a strong legislative basis| well-trained staff| engagement of industry| effective surveillance| good scientific and laboratory support| effective emergency management procedures| a sound quarantine system| and strong political support. However| enhancements still need to be made to Australia's animal health system| for example: re-defining the science-policy interface; refining foresight| risk analysis| surveillance| diagnostics| and emergency management; improving approaches to education| training| technology transfer| communications and awareness; and engaging more with the international community in areas such as capacity building| the development of veterinary services| and disease response systems. A 'one health' approach will be adopted to bring together skills in the fields of animal| public| wildlife and environmental health. These initiatives| if managed correctly| will minimise the risks resulting from global warming and other factors predisposing to disease. 1129,2008,3,4,Managing carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning: Current practices in the Western United States,Concerns about global climate change have substantially increased the likelihood that future policy will seek to minimize carbon dioxide emissions. As such| even today| electric utilities are making resource planning and investment decisions that consider the possible implications of these future carbon regulations. In this article| we examine the manner in which utilities assess the financial risks associated with future carbon regulations within their long-term resource plans. We base our analysis on a review of the most recent resource plans filed by 15 electric utilities in the Western United States. Virtually all of these utilities made some effort to quantitatively evaluate the potential cost of future carbon regulations when analyzing alternate supply- and demand-side resource options for meeting customer load. Even without federal climate regulation in the US| the prospect of that regulation is already having an impact on utility decision-making and resource choices. That said| the methods and assumptions used by utilities to analyze carbon regulatory risk| and the impact of that analysis on their choice of a particular resource strategy| vary considerably| revealing a number of opportunities for analytic improvement. Though our review focuses on a subset of US electric utilities| this work holds implications for all electric utilities and energy policymakers who are seeking to minimize the compliance costs associated with future carbon regulations. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1310,2008,2,4,Managing climate risks in Australia: options for water policy and irrigation management,Australia| a country which suffers from recurrent droughts| is currently experiencing a shift in climate. It is often classified as the driest inhabited continent due to the extremely low annual average rainfall (465 mm) and associated low annual average runoff (57 mm). This has required a regular revision of Australia's water policy to align with the needs of its society. Several changes in water policy have been formulated in recent times with the objective of striking a balance between the consumptive and environmental components of flows in Australian catchments. Some of the developments that affect irrigated agriculture include: (i) the Council of Australian Government's water reforms; (ii) the Murray-Darling Basin Commission cap (the volume of water that could be diverted under 1993-94 levels of development); (iii) environmental flow rules; and (iv) the National Water Initiative. At a strategic level global climate change threatens the viability of irrigated agriculture and other industries. Under the present water reforms| longer-term water security is not guaranteed because these reforms do not explicitly take into account threats to water quantity and quality due to enhanced climate variability and change. At an operational level| current water allocation systems do not take into account state-of-the-art climate forecasting methods. Therefore| it is often not until after the irrigation season is well underway that irrigators have a reasonable knowledge of how much water will be available. Thus| there is considerable risk associated with planting and crop establishment decisions| resulting in a need for climate forecasting tools aimed at risk management. There is also a need for Australian water legislation and policy to be revisited to incorporate climate change and adaptive management options. 9246,2008,2,4,Mapping and attribution of change in streamflow in the coterminous United States,An increasing trend in global streamflow has been variously attributed to global warming| land use| and a reduction in plant transpiration under higher CO2 levels. To separate these influences for the coterminous United States| we use a set of over 1000 United States Geological Survey stream gauges primarily from small| minimally disturbed watersheds to estimate annual streamflow per unit area since 1920 on a uniform grid. We find that changing precipitation| which is not clearly correlated with greenhouse gas concentrations or global warming| explains most of the interannual and longer term variability in streamflow. While streamflow has indeed increased since 1920| this increase has not been steady but rather concentrated in the late 1960s| when precipitation increased. Since the early 1990s| both precipitation and streamflow show nonsignificant declining trends. Multiple regression of streamflow against precipitation| temperature and CO2 suggests that higher CO2 levels may increase streamflow| presumably from lower transpiration due to the physiological plant response to CO2| but that this positive response is offset by concomitant increasing evaporation due to global warming. The net impact of the opposing climate and physiological effects of CO2 emissions for streamflow is close to zero for the coterminous United States taken as a whole| but shows regional variation. Streamflow at a given amount of annual precipitation has decreased in the Pacific west| where most precipitation occurs in winter. Suppression of plant transpiration through higher CO2 levels may be particularly important for sustaining high streamflow in recent decades in the Great Plains| where precipitation is concentrated during the growing season. 9234,2008,2,4,Marine biogeochemical response to a rapid warming in the main stream of the Kuroshio in the western North Pacific,Impact of climate change on marine biogeochemical parameters and ecosystem is one of the important issues of our environment. Direct evidence of marine pelagic ecosystem changes is found with warming of sea water and sea-level rise in the main stream of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea and the western North Pacific during these three decades based on the analysis of long-term comprehensive hydrographic observations. In terms of annual mean| the warming rate of surface air temperature and sea surface temperature ranged from 0.15 to 0.21 degrees C per decade in and around the main stream of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea| which exceed the global mean warming rate of 0.128 +/- 0.026 degrees C per decade during the period from 1956 to 2005 reported in IPCC 2007. One of the features in this rapid warming region is an increase of number of Pterosagitta draco| a cosmopolitan warm-water zooplankton. Biogeochemical parameters| such as wet weight of zooplankton| plant pigment and nutrients concentration in the upper 200 m have been decreasing while dissolved oxygen content and seawater temperature have been increasing in the upper 200 m in the main stream of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea. These observed linear trends of the biogeochemical parameters would be foresights for temperate oceans in the future. 1118,2008,2,4,Mass movement mapping for geomorphological understanding and sustainable development: Tigray| Ethiopia,Mass movement topography characterises the escarpments and piedmont zones of the tabular ridges in the western part of the Mekelle outlier| Tigray| Ethiopia. Several types of mass movements can be distinguished. The first type is rockfall produced by 357 km rocky escarpments and cliffs during the rainy season. In the study area| every current kilometer of Amba Aradam sandstone cliff annually produces 3.7 m(3) of rock fragments. However| this is an under-estimation of the actual cliff and escarpment evolution| which is also characterised by debris slides and small rock slides. In the debris flow class. three dormant flow types are recognised. The first type comprises preferential or undifferentiated mobilisations of the so-called plateau layers| the whitish sandy-clayey lacustrine deposits and the lower and upper basalts| and more especially| the swelling clays| derived from the basalts. These debris flows start on the nearly horizontal Amba Aradam Sandstone tabular extensions| jump over cliff recessions or even spurs. and go very far into the valley. In some instances parts of Amba Aradam sandstone and Antalo limestone cliffs are transported. Secondly| some debris flows take their origin in the Antalo limestone supersequence. It concerns deeply weathered layers resting upon aquicludes/aquitards. Finally| gigantic debris flows and rock slides occur around dolerite dyke ridges. About 20% of the total surface of the study area is occupied by landslide topography. Most of the landslides affect the steep edges of the table mountains or the dykes/sills. Mapping and listing of active and dormant mass movements increases knowledge in three domains which are crucial for sustainable development of the study area. The first one is geomorphological risk assessment. The distribution map of active rockfall and dormant landslides shows the areas where potential risks are located. Land use changes which improve the water infiltration capacity of dormant landslides| should be followed up. Secondly. the impact of global climate change on these risk areas can be assessed. The second domain is the water sector| which needs attention in the study area and in many parts of Africa. Landslides mobilised by hydrostatic pressures are related to the occurrence of aquicludes and aquifers. In the study area| landslide mapping led to the location of three aquitards. not described before. The third domain is the pedological mapping. In the study area| soil distribution is very well explained by the morphology and extension of dormant landslides. Finally| mapping of dormant landslides stimulates the academic debate on the geomorphological significance of mass movements in hillslope retreat in tropical areas. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8724,2008,5,4,Mass-wasting of ancient aeolian dunes and sand fluidization during a period of global warming and inferred brief high precipitation: the Hopeman Sandstone (late Permian)| Scotland,Large-scale deformation structures in late Permian aeolian dune sands are associated with sand fluidization and injection. Exceptional precipitation and flooding of the desert margin are believed to have caused mass-wasting by gravitational collapse and sliding of water-saturated dunes| which loaded down-dip strata| thus generating overpressure and triggering sand injection. This short-lived but heavy precipitation seems to have been associated with a climatic change from arid Rotliegend dune deposition to widespread Zechstein marine conditions within the greater North Sea area| probably just before or coinciding with deposition of the rapidly expanding marine Kupferschiefer. 8399,2008,4,4,Mathematical models of plant-soil interaction,In this paper| we set out to illustrate and discuss how mathematical modelling could and should be applied to aid our understanding of plants and| in particular| plant soil interactions. Our aim is to persuade members of both the biological and mathematical communities of the need to collaborate in developing quantitative mechanistic models. We believe that such models will lead to a more profound understanding of the fundamental science of plants and may help us with managing real-world problems such as food shortages and global warming. We start the paper by reviewing mathematical models that have been developed to describe nutrient and water uptake by a single root. We discuss briefly the mathematical techniques involved in analysing these models and present some of the analytical results of these models. Then| we describe how the information gained from the single-root scale models can be translated to root system and field scales. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different mathematical approaches and make a case that mechanistic rather than phenomenological models will in the end be more trustworthy. We also discuss the need for a considerable amount of effort on the fundamental mathematics of upscaling and homogenization methods specialized for branched networks such as roots. Finally| we discuss different future avenues of research and how we believe these should be approached so that in the long term it will be possible to develop a valid| quantitative whole-plant model. 8895,2008,2,4,Mayfly production in a New Zealand glacial stream and the potential effect of climate change,In contrast to the northern hemisphere where species of Chironomidae are usually the dominant benthic invertebrates in the coldest upper reaches of glacial streams| mayflies (Deleatidium spp.: Leptophlebiidae) predominate in equivalent conditions in New Zealand. We examined the life histories and annual production of Deleatidium spp. at two sites on the Matukituki River (South Island| New Zealand) and at three sites in its glacier-fed tributary| Rob Roy Stream. Mean annual water temperature at the five sites ranged from 2.1 to 7.0 degrees C. Monthly sampling showed that mayfly populations were poorly synchronised at all sites but were probably univoltine. The large Deleatidium cornutum was the dominant mayfly species found at the upper sites (Sites 1 and 2) on Rob Roy Stream| whereas above the confluence with Matukituki River (Site 3) it co-existed with a complex of smaller species we refer to as D. "angustum". Deleatidium "angustum" also dominated at the Matukituki sites. Deleatidium production calculated for the five sites| assuming an 11-month nymphal life| ranged from 0.48 g dry weight/m(2)/year (Site 1) to 3.07 g dry weight/m(2)/year (Site 3). The values for D. cornutum at Sites 2 and 3 are high for a species of Deleatidium and reflect its large size. This species appears to be strongly adapted for growth at low temperatures. Climate change scenarios for New Zealand predict the gradual and ultimate loss of small South Island glaciers and a consequent warming of streams as runoff from rainfall and snow melt becomes more dominant in spring. As a result| suitable habitats will be lost for cold-water specialists such as D. cornutum| and they are likely to suffer reductions in their distributional range and local extinction. In contrast| species such as those in the D. "angustum" complex may extend their ranges into streams formerly dominated by glacial meltwater. 9141,2008,4,4,Measurement of the water vapour vertical profile and of the Earth's outgoing far infrared flux,Our understanding of global warming depends on the accuracy with which the atmospheric components that modulate the Earth's radiation budget are known. Many uncertainties still exist as regards the radiative effect of water in the different spectral regions| among which is the far infrared| where very few observations have been made. An assessment is shown of the atmospheric outgoing flux obtained from a balloon-borne platform with wideband spectrally-resolved nadir measurements at the top of the atmosphere over the full spectral range| from 100 to 1400 cm(-1)| made by a Fourier transform spectrometer with uncooled detectors. From these measurements| we retrieved 15 pieces of information regarding water vapour and temperature profiles and surface temperature| with a major improvement in our knowledge of water vapour in the upper troposphere. The retrieved atmospheric state made it possible to calculate the emitted radiance also at frequencies and zenith angles that have not been observed and to determine the outgoing spectral radiation flux. This proves that spectrally resolved observations can be used to derive accurate information on the integrated flux. While the retrieved temperature was in agreement with ECMWF analysis| the retrieved water vapour profile differed significantly; depending on the time and the location| the derived flux in the far infrared (20-600 cm(-1)) differed by 2-3.5 W/m(2) from that calculated using ECMWF. The error with which the far infrared flux is determined by REFIR-PAD is about 0.4 W/m(2) and is caused mainly by calibration uncertainties| while detector noise has a negligible effect. This proves that uncooled detectors are adequate for top-of-the-atmosphere radiometry. 8927,2008,3,4,Measuring environmental value for natural lawn and garden care practices,Background| Aims and Scope. Measuring Environmental Value for Natural Lawn and Garden Care Practices provides a life cycle assessment and impacts valuation methodology to quantify environmental (public health and ecological) and water conservation benefits from natural lawn and garden care practices in Seattle. Seattle Public Utilities (SPU) initiated this study as part of a triple-bottom-line analysis of its Natural Lawn and Garden Care program. Methods. The study uses life cycle assessment (LCA) methods| including the Carnegie-Mellon Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIOLCA) tool publicly available on the Internet| to inventory pollutant generation from a synthetic nutrients and pesticide approach to lawn and garden care compared against a natural/organic care approach. The study applies US Environmental Protection Agency's TRACI (Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts) climate change| acidification| eutrophication| and human health-criteria air pollutant stressor factors| along with the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's CalTOX risk assessment model's human and ecosystem toxicity potentials to roll up the numerous pollutant quantities into six environmental impact categories (global warming potential| human respiratory disease potential| human toxicity potential| ecological toxicity potential| acidification potential and eutrophication potential). The study develops cost valuation estimates for each impact category to produce a dollar estimate of the environmental cost of the two archetypical lawn and garden care methods. Results. Lawns and gardens account for 25% of Seattle's land area| so lawn and garden care methods potentially have substantial impacts on the city's land- and water-based ecosystems. LCA methods provide an informative methodology for comparing environmental impacts from lawn and garden care practices. These methods reveal the importance of more natural lawn and garden care practices. They also show that resource extraction and manufacturing impacts of pesticides and synthetic fertilizers dominate their on site use impacts in the case of global warming| but that the reverse holds for human and ecological toxicity| and eutrophication. In addition| releases of particulates| SO| and NO| associated with gasoline-powered lawn mowing are nearly an order of magnitude larger than releases of these pollutants as a result of the production of pesticides and fertilizers. Discussion. The study proceeds by using available data and research to build a desktop model that characterizes and contrasts two archetypical lawn and garden care practices: (1) Petroleum-based fertilizers and pesticides| a gasoline-powered lawn mower| and substantial irrigation to maintain a traditional weed-free| always-green lawn and garden| versus (2) A backyard compost system to provide lawn and garden nutrients| supplemented moderately by purchased non-synthetic soil amendments| an electricity-powered mower| no pesticides| and drought tolerant lawn and garden species having little need for irrigation. Conclusions. The study concludes that each household converting from synthetic to natural practices produces nearly $75 in annual ongoing public health| ecological| water conservation and hazardous waste management benefits - between $16 and $21 of environmental benefits from reduced use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides| $8 of environmental benefits for switching from gas to electricity for lawn mowing| $42 in cost savings due to reduced irrigation| and $5 or $6 from lower hazardous waste management costs. There also is a potential one time avoidance of $31 in construction costs resulting from reduced need for storm water detention and diversion capacity. Recommendations and Perspectives. This study's estimates of environmental value would benefit from comprehensive information on direct exposure to active ingredients in insecticides during their application. Estimates of impacts are based only on volatilization and runoff of active ingredients after application. Furthermore| the study would benefit from estimates of carbon sequestration in soils promoted by natural lawn and garden care techniques| and on the upstream pollutant releases from production of synthetic versus organic fertilizers. All three of these data gaps suggest that the estimated $75 per single family residence for environmental value is probably a lower bound on benefits from natural lawn and garden care versus more traditional pesticide-and-synthetic-fertilizer-based approaches. 1113,2008,4,4,Mechanisms driving understory evergreen herb distributions across slope aspects: as derived from landscape position,In the Northern Hemisphere| the surface of south-facing slopes orients toward the sun and thus receives a greater duration and intensity of solar irradiation| resulting in a relatively warmer| drier microclimate and seasonal environmental extremes. This creates potentially detrimental conditions for evergreen plants which must endure the full gamut of conditions. I hypothesize that (1) increased southerly aspect will correlate negatively with evergreen understory plant distributions; (2) derived environmental variables (summer and winter light and heat load) will predict variance in evergreen distributions as well as topographic position (aspect| slope| and elevation) and (3) winter light will best predict evergreen understory plant distributions. In order to test these hypotheses| survey data were collected characterizing 10 evergreen understory herb distributions (presence| abundance| and reproduction) as well as the corresponding topographical information across north- and south-facing slopes in the North Carolina mountains and Georgia piedmont. The best predictive models were selected using AIC| and Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear models were used to estimate the strength of the retained coefficients. As predicted| evergreen understory herbs occurred and reproduced less on south-facing than north-facing slopes| though slope and elevation also had robust predictive power| and both discriminated well between evergreen species. While the landscape variables explained where the plants occurred| winter light and heat load provided the best explanation why they were there. Evergreen plants likely are limited on south-facing slopes by low soil moisture combined with high temperatures in summer and high irradiance combined with lower temperatures in winter. The robust negative response of the understory evergreen herbs to increased winter light also suggested that the winter rather than the summer (or growing season) environment provided the best predictive power for understory evergreen distributions| which has substantive implications for predicting responses to global climate change. 8514,2008,2,4,Mechanisms of Global Warming Impacts on Robustness of Tropical Precipitation Asymmetry,Hemispherically and temporally asymmetric tropical precipitation responses to global warming are evaluated in 13 different coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model stimulations. In the late boreal summer| hemispherical averages of the tropical precipitation anomalies from the multimodel ensemble show a strong positive trend in the Northern Hmeisphere and a weak negative trend in the Southern Hemisphere. In the late austral summer| on the other hand| the trends are reversed. This implies that the summer hemisphere becomes wetter and the winter hemisphere becomes a little drier in the tropics. Thus| the seasonal range of tropical precipitation| differences between wet and dry seasons| is increased. Zonal averages of the precipitation anomalies from the multimodel ensemble also reveal a meridional movement| which basically follows the seasonal migration of the main convection zone. Similar asymmetric features can be found in all 13 climate model simulations used in this study. Based on the moisture budget analysis| the vertical moisture advection associated with mean circulation is the main contribution for the robustness of the asymmetric distribution of the tropical precipitation anomalies. Under global warming| tropospheric water vapor increases as the temperature rises and most enhanced water vapor is in the lower troposphere. The acending motion of the Hadley circulation then transports more water vapor upward| that is| anomalous moisture convergence| and enhances precipitation over the main convection zones. On the other hand| the thermodynamic effect associated with the descending motion of the HAdley circulation| that is| anomalous moisture divergence| reduces the precipitation over the descending regions. 8909,2008,5,3,Mechanisms of PETM global change constrained by a new record from central Utah,Catastrophic carbon release and global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) profoundly affected continental climate and ecosystems. Understanding of the details and mechanisms of these effects is limited by the poor geographic coverage of existing continental PETM records. Here| we extend the record of this event in North America through identification of the PETM carbon isotope excursion within a sequence of paleosols in the North Horn Formation of central Utah| some 500 km to the south of previous records from northern Wyoming. Data from the new site suggest that patterns of climatological change were similar across a meridional transect of western North America but that PETM climate was relatively more and in the southern Rocky Mountains| possibly reflecting diversion of precipitation from middle to high latitudes. Our results are consistent with two proposed mechanisms explaining variation in the amplitude of continental PETM carbon isotope records in terms of changes in floral composition or varying environmental wetness| and they present opportunities for future tests of proposed north-south biotic dispersal during the PETM. 9216,2008,2,4,Medium-term effects of die-off of rocky benthos in the Ligurian Sea. What can we learn from gorgonians?,Mediterranean Sea ecosystems are experiencing a phase of major modifications owing to the fast increase in several disturbances such as pollution| eutrophication| habitat destruction| over-fishing| income of alien species| and climate change. One of the main problems in recent years is that global warming seems to intensify the effects of all the above-mentioned disturbances| dramatically reducing the biodiversity of the basin. The ever more frequent mass mortalities that are affecting shallow coastal environments are rapidly reducing the biomass of several filter feeders and both sponges and gorgonians are the most endangered taxa. In this paper we review the most recent episodes of mass mortality| mainly involving sea fans| and discuss the possible effects that the loss of these organisms can have on benthic assemblage structure. The data presented here are referred mainly to the study case of the MPA of Portofino (Ligurian Sea| Italy). 8687,2008,2,3,Megafauna biomass tradeoff as a driver of Quaternary and future extinctions,Earth's most recent major extinction episode| the Quaternary Megafauna Extinction| claimed two-thirds of mammal genera and one-half of species that weighed > 44 kg between approximate to 50|000 and 3|000 years ago. Estimates of megafauna biomass (including humans as a megafauna species) for before| during| and after the extinction episode suggest that growth of human biomass largely matched the loss of non-human megafauna biomass until approximate to 12|000 years ago. Then| total megafauna biomass crashed| because many non-human megafauna species suddenly disappeared| whereas human biomass continued to rise. After the crash| the global ecosystem gradually recovered into a new state where megafauna biomass was concentrated around one species| humans| instead of being distributed across many species. Precrash biomass levels were finally reached just before the Industrial Revolution began| then skyrocketed above the precrash baseline as humans augmented the energy available to the global ecosystem by mining fossil fuels. Implications include (j) an increase in human biomass (with attendant hunting and other impacts) intersected with climate change to cause the Quaternary Megafauna Extinction and an ecological threshold event| after which humans became dominant in the global ecosystem; (h) with continued growth of human biomass and today's unprecedented global warming| only extraordinary and stepped-up conservation efforts will prevent a new round of extinctions in most body-size and taxonomic spectra; and (iii) a near-future biomass crash that will unfavorably impact humans and their domesticates and other species is unavoidable unless alternative energy sources are developed to replace dwindling supplies of fossil fuels. 1126,2008,5,4,Melt-Water-Pulse (MWP) events and abrupt climate change of the last deglaciation,The last deglaciation is characterized by massive ice sheet melting| which results in an average sea-level rise of similar to 120-140 m. At least three major Melt-Water-Pulse (MWP) events (19ka-MWP| MWP-1A and MWP-1B) are recognizable for the last deglaciation| of which MWP-1A event lasting from similar to 14.2 to similar to 13.7 ka B.P. is of the most significance. However| the accurate timing and source of MWP-1A event remain debatable and controversial. It has long been postulated that meltwater of the last deglaciation pouring into the North Atlantic resulted in a slowdown or even a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) which subsequently affected the global climate change. Accordingly| the focus of this debate consists in establishing a reasonable relationship between MWP events and abrupt climate change. Here we summarize a variety of geological and model results for the last deglaciation| reaching a conclusion that the major MWP events did not correspond with the rigorous stadials| nor always happened within climate reversal intervals. MWP events of the last deglaciation had very weak influences on the intensity of the THC and were not able to trigger a collapse of the global climate. We need to reevaluate the influences of the temporal meltwater variability on the global climate system. 8591,2008,3,4,Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes in annual and perennial land-use systems of the irrigated areas in the Aral Sea Basin,Land use and agricultural practices can result in important contributions to the global source strength of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and methane (CH(4)). However| knowledge of gas flux from irrigated agriculture is very limited. From April 2005 to October 2006| a study was conducted in the Aral Sea Basin| Uzbekistan| to quantify and compare emissions of N(2)O and CH(4) in various annual and perennial land-use systems: irrigated cotton| winter wheat and rice crops| a poplar plantation and a natural Tugai (floodplain) forest. In the annual systems| average N(2)O emissions ranged from 10 to 150 mu g N(2)O-N m(-2) h(-1) with highest N(2)O emissions in the cotton fields| covering a similar range of previous studies from irrigated cropping systems. Emission factors (uncorrected for background emission)| used to determine the fertilizer-induced N(2)O emission as a percentage of N fertilizer applied| ranged from 0.2% to 2.6%. Seasonal variations in N(2)O emissions were principally controlled by fertilization and irrigation management. Pulses of N(2)O emissions occurred after concomitant N-fertilizer application and irrigation. The unfertilized poplar plantation showed high N(2)O emissions over the entire study period (30 mu g N(2)O-N m(-2) h(-1))| whereas only negligible fluxes of N(2)O (< 2 mu g N(2)O-N m(-2) h(-1)) occurred in the Tugai. Significant CH(4) fluxes only were determined from the flooded rice field: Fluxes were low with mean flux rates of 32 mg CH(4) m(-2) day(-1) and a low seasonal total of 35.2 kg CH(4) ha(-1). The global warming potential (GWP) of the N(2)O and CH(4) fluxes was highest under rice and cotton| with seasonal changes between 500 and 3000 kg CO(2) eq. ha(-1). The biennial cotton-wheat-rice crop rotation commonly practiced in the region would average a GWP of 2500 kg CO(2) eq. ha(-1) yr(-1). The analyses point out opportunities for reducing the GWP of these irrigated agricultural systems by (i) optimization of fertilization and irrigation practices and (ii) conversion of annual cropping systems into perennial forest plantations| especially on less profitable| marginal lands. 8424,2008,3,4,Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes in the polluted Adyar River and estuary| SE India,We measured dissolved N(2)O| CH(4)| O(2)| NH(4)(+)| NO(3)(-) and NO(2)(-) on 7 transects along the polluted Adyar River-estuary| SE India and estimated N(2)O and CH(4) emissions using a gas exchange relation and a floating chamber. High NO(2)(-) implied some nitrification of a large anthropogenic NH(4)(+) pool. In the lower catchment CH(4) was maximal (6.3+/-4.3 x 10(4) nM)| exceeding the ebullition threshold| whereas strong undersaturation of N(2)O and O(2) implied intense denitrification. Emissions fluxes for the whole Adyar system similar to 2.5 x 10(8) g CH(4) yr(-1) and similar to 2.4 x 10(6) g N(2)O yr(-1) estimated with a gas exchange relation and similar to 2 x 10(9) g CH(4) yr(-1) derived with a floating chamber illustrate the importance of CH(4) ebullition. An equivalent CO(2) flux similar to 1-10 x 10(10) g yr(-1) derived using global warming potentials is equivalent to total Chennai motor vehicle CO(2) emissions in one month. Studies such as this may inform More effective waste management and future compliance with international emissions agreements. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9018,2008,3,3,Methane dehydro-aromatization on Mo/ZSM-5: About the hidden role of Bronsted acid sites,Whereas the hegemony of the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is well established for the valorization of methane in the case of important gas fields| the methane dehydro-aromatization reaction remains an interesting solution to convert methane obtained as by-product of oil extraction and thus fight against flaring and global warming. Until now| it was generally accepted that the molybdenum is anchored on the Bronsted acid sites of the zeolite as (Mo2O5)(2+) species. The molybdenum performs the dehydrogenation and coupling of CH4 to ethylene which is consecutively oligomerized to benzene over the Bronsted acid sites. In the present work| we bring evidence that this picture is actually more complicated than it seems. The Si/Al ratio of the zeolite| and consequently the density of available Bronsted acid sites| plays a dramatic role on the anchoring mode of the molybdenum and on its catalytic activity. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8853,2008,4,4,Methane emission from Siberian arctic polygonal tundra: eddy covariance measurements and modeling,Eddy covariance measurements of methane flux were carried out in an arctic tundra landscape in the central Lena River Delta at 72 degrees N. The measurements covered the seasonal course of mid-summer to early winter in 2003 and early spring to mid-summer in 2004| including the periods of spring thaw and autumnal freeze back. The study site is characterized by very cold and deep permafrost and a continental climate with a mean annual air temperature of -14.7 degrees C. The surface is characterized by wet polygonal tundra| with a micro-relief consisting of raised moderately dry sites| depressed wet sites| polygonal ponds| and lakes. We found relatively low fluxes of typically 30 mg CH(4) m(-2) day(-1) during mid-summer and identified soil temperature and near-surface atmospheric turbulence as the factors controlling methane emission. The influence of atmospheric turbulence was attributed to the high coverage of open water surfaces in the tundra. The soil thaw depth and water table position were found to have no clear effect on methane fluxes. The excess emission during spring thaw was estimated to be about 3% of the total flux measured during June-October. Winter emissions were modeled based on the functional relationships found in the measured data. The annual methane emission was estimated to be 3.15 g m(-2). This is low compared with values reported for similar ecosystems. Reason for this were thought to be the very low permafrost temperature in the study region| the sandy soil texture and low bio-availability of nutrients in the soils| and the high surface coverage of moist to dry micro-sites. The methane emission accounted for about 14% of the annual ecosystem carbon balance. Considering the global warming potential of methane| the methane emission turned the tundra into an effective greenhouse gas source. 9124,2008,4,4,Methane oxidation at 55 degrees C and pH 2 by a thermoacidophilic bacterium belonging to the Verrucomicrobia phylum,Methanotrophic bacteria constitute a ubiquitous group of microorganisms playing an important role in the biogeochemical carbon cycle and in control of global warming through natural reduction of methane emission. These bacteria share the unique ability of using methane as a sole carbon and energy source and have been found in a great variety of habitats. Phylogenetically| known methanotrophs constitute a rather limited group and have so far only been affiliated with the Proteobacteria. Here| we report the isolation and initial characterization of a nonproteobacterial obligately methanotrophic bacterium. The isolate| designated Kam1| was recovered from an acidic hot spring in Kamchatka| Russia| and is more thermoacidophilic than any other known methanotroph| with optimal growth at approximate to 55 degrees C and pH 3.5. Kam1 is only distantly related to all previously known methanotrophs and belongs to the Verrucomicrobia lineage of evolution. Genes for methane monooxygenases| essential for initiation of methane oxidation| could not be detected by using standard primers in PCR amplification and Southern blot analysis| suggesting the presence of a different methane oxidation enzyme. Kam1 also lacks the well developed intracellular membrane systems typical for other methanotrophs. The isolate represents a previously unrecognized biological methane sink| and| due to its unusual phylogenetic affiliation| it will shed important light on the origin| evolution| and diversity of biological methane oxidation and on the adaptation of this process to extreme habitats. Furthermore| Kam1 will add to our knowledge of the metabolic traits and biogeochemical roles of the widespread but poorly understood Verrucomicrobia phylum. 9197,2008,3,3,Methanotrophic activity of coalbed rocks from "Bogdanka" coal mine (South-East Poland),Methane is an atmospheric trace gas| which is estimated to contribute about 20% to global warming. Coal mining used to be regarded as attributing considerably to the anthropogenic emissions of that potent greenhouse gas. Recently discovered methanotrophic abilities of coalbed rocks brought a new argument to the discussion about the environmental impact of the mining industry. In the present work| we determined the methanotrophic activity and maximum capacity (V(max)) of methane oxidation originating from rocks surrounding seam 385/2 of the "Bogdanka" coal mine. Methane oxidation rates ranged from 0.231 mu M CH(4) g (-1)day (-1) in the rock from the middle of the seam to 0.619 mu M CH(4) g (-1)day (-1) in the bottom rock (4.4 m depth). Methanotrophic activity and V(max) increased with the distance to the coal body and with decreasing TOC content. Initial and terminal redox conditions (Eh>320 mV| pH 7.60-8.62) confirmed the oxic character of the methane oxidation process. 8773,2008,3,4,Micro- and nano-characterization of membrane materials,The global warming has led to enormous challenges worldwide for a large variety of communities| particularly these associated to water and water treatment industry. Due to increasing scarcity of water resources| the development of new membrane materials and water treatment processes will play an important role in tackling this emerging problem. In this paper| the recent development in characterization of in particular| geometrical parameters of micro- and nano-membrane materials will be reviewed. Membranes with micro- and nano-pores have widely been used for ultrafiltration and nanofiltration. The structure of the pores and the surface of the pores/membranes may be optimized to achieve much improved flow rate in these micro-/nano-channels. Therefore| accurate characterization of porous structures will contribute significantly to the prediction of membrane performance. It will not only provide an insight into the new characterization methods but also the development of novel materials. (c) 2008 Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1308,2008,2,4,Microbial reduction of iron and porewater biogeochemistry in acidic peatlands,Temporal drying of upper soil layers of acidic methanogenic peatlands might divert the flow of reductants from CH(4) formation to other electron-accepting processes due to a renewal of alternative electron acceptors. In this study| we evaluated the in situ relevance of Fe(III)-reducing microbial activities in peatlands of a forested catchment that differed in their hydrology. Intermittent seeps reduced sequentially nitrate| Fe(III)| and sulfate during periods of water saturation. Due to the acidic soil conditions| released Fe(II) was transported with the groundwater flow and accumulated as Fe(III) in upper soil layers of a lowland fen apparently due to oxidation. Microbial Fe(III) reduction in the upper soil layer accounted for 26.7 and 71.6% of the anaerobic organic carbon mineralization in the intermittent seep and the lowland fen| respectively. In an upland fen not receiving exogenous Fe| Fe(III) reduction contributed only to 6.7%. Fe(II) and acetate accumulated in deeper porewater of the lowland fen with maximum concentrations of 7 and 3 mM| respectively. Both supplemental glucose and acetate stimulated the reduction of Fe(III) indicating that fermentative| incomplete| and complete oxidizers were involved in Fe(II) formation in the acidic fen. Amplification of DNA yielded PCR products specific for Acidiphilium-| Geobacter-| and Geothrix-| but not for Shewanella- or Anaeroromyxobacter- related sequences. Porewater biogeochemistry observed during a 3-year-period suggests that increased drought periods and subsequent intensive rainfalls due to global climate change will further favor Fe(III) and sulfate as alternative electron acceptors due to the storage and enhanced re-oxidation of their reduced compounds in the soil. 8978,2008,2,4,Microecological impacts of global warming on crustaceans-temperature induced shifts in the release of larvae from American lobster| Homarus americanus| females,As ocean temperatures increase| crustaceans become subjected to more immediate| microecological impacts because of their exothermically-driven growth and development. In this laboratory-based study| ovigerous American lobster (Homarus americanus) were allowed to incubate their eggs for either a normal period of time (7-9 months including time at temperatures <10 degrees C)| or were held in water >10 degrees C to speedup the rate of egg development (4-6 months). Females that had shorter incubation times had longer periods of larval release compared with females that incubated eggs for a normal period of time. Females incubating eggs for a shorter period of time also produced more larvae| and this was explained by the daily loss of a small number of eggs. Subsequent modeling of the relationship between dates of egg extrusion and hatching using data compiled from Massachusetts Bay demonstrated that there was a critical period in the fall at which larval development would switch from a resultant hatch in the spring to a hatch in the late fall or winter. The short-term implications of global warming on egg development and hatching in lobsters is discussed| including the production of larvae at suboptimal times of the year| as well as a temporal change in the abundance of larvae during the hatching season. Either of these events can lead to an increase in larval mortality and hence a decrease in population productivity. 8426,2008,3,3,Minimal effects of wind turbines on the distribution of wintering farmland birds,1. Energy production from wind power is increasing rapidly in Europe to help combat the threats from global warming. For example| the European Commission have set a target for 20% of EU energy to come from renewable sources by 2020. In recent decades| biodiversity on European farmland has fallen dramatically due to agricultural intensification. Agri-environment schemes (AES) have been implemented across the EU| in part at least| to combat these declines. Significant numbers of turbines are| and will be| built on farmland. There is| therefore| a potential conflict between wind turbines and AES on farmland. 2. Various mechanisms potentially cause wind turbines to alter bird distribution including noise and physical structure. 3. We show that turbine location (controlling for other effects such as boundary location and crop type) did not affect the distribution of four functional groups of wintering farmland birds (seed-eaters| corvids| gamebirds and Eurasian skylarks) at differing distances from wind turbines ranging from 0-150 m to 600-750 m. The only species for which distribution was related to the presence of wind turbines was the largest and least manoeuvrable (common pheasant Phasianus colchicus L.). 4. In a further analysis of data collected at 0-75 m and 75-150 m from turbines| we found no evidence to suggest that farmland birds in our study avoided areas close to wind turbines. 5. Synthesis and applications. This is the first evidence suggesting that the present and future location of large numbers of wind turbines on European farmland is unlikely to have detrimental effects on farmland birds (at least for those species included in our study). This should be welcome news for nature conservationists| wind energy companies and policy-makers. However| our work is only a first step| as there may be potential influences of wind turbines on bird distribution during the breeding season. 1103,2008,5,4,Miocene tectonics and climate forcing of biodiversity| Western United States,Ungulate and carnivore diversity patterns since 30 Ma in different regions of the western United States suggest abrupt increased diversification at 17-17.5 Ma| followed by decreases ca. 11 Ma| and stasis thereafter. Although global climate change presumably affects evolution| we hypothesize that widespread extensional tectonism in the western U.S. also helped drive diversity increases ca. 17.5 Ma through a topographically induced increase in floral and habitat diversity. The decreases in diversities ca. 11 Ma| as well as the rapid increase in C4 ecosystems (RICE) worldwide at 7-8 Ma may have responded to climate teleconnections and increased seasonality linked to global cooling and growth of orogenic plateaus| particularly the Tibetan Plateau between 13 and 8 Ma. Thus| biodiversity complexly responds both to climate and to tectonics. 1114,2008,2,4,Mitigation needs adaptation: Tropical forestry and climate change,The relationship between tropical forests and global climate change has so far focused on mitigation| while much less emphasis has been placed on how management activities may help forest ecosystems adapt to this change. This paper discusses how tropical forestry practices can contribute to maintaining or enhancing the adaptive capacity of natural and planted forests to global climate change and considers challenges and opportunities for the integration of tropical forest management in broader climate change adaptation. In addition to the use of reduced impact logging to maintain ecosystem integrity| other approaches may be needed| such as fire prevention and management| as well as specific silvicultural options aimed at facilitating genetic adaptation. In the case of planted forests| the normally higher intensity of management (with respect to natural forest) offers additional opportunities for implementing adaptation measures| at both industrial and smallholder levels. Although the integration in forest management of measures aimed at enhancing adaptation to climate change may not involve substantial additional effort with respect to current practice| little action appears to have been taken to date. Tropical foresters and forest-dependent communities appear not to appreciate the risks posed by climate change and| for those who are aware of them| practical guidance on how to respond is largely non-existent. The extent to which forestry research and national policies will promote and adopt management practices in order to assist production forests adapt to climate change is currently uncertain. Mainstreaming adaptation into national development and planning programs may represent an initial step towards the incorporation of climate change considerations into tropical forestry. 9025,2008,4,3,Modeling carbon cycles and estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from organic and conventional farming systems,The paper describes the model software REPRO (REPROduction of soil fertility) designed for analyzing interlinked carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes in the system soil-plant-animal-environment. The model couples the balancing of C| N and energy fluxes with the target to estimate the climate-relevant CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O sources and sinks of fanning systems. For the determination of the net greenhouse effect| calculations of C sequestration in the Soil| CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil energy| CH(4) emissions from livestock keeping and N(2)O emissions from the soil have been made. The results were converted into CO(2) equivalents using its specific global warming potential (GWP). The model has been applied in the experimental farm Scheyem in southern Germany| which had been divided into an organic (org) and a conventional (con) farming system in 1992. Rather detailed series of long-term measuring data are available for the farm in Scheyern| which have been used for validating the software for its efficiency and applicability under very different management yet nearly equal site conditions. The organic farm is multi-structured with a legume-based crop rotation (N(2) fixation: 83 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)). The livestock density (LSU =Livestock Unit according to FAO) is 1.4 LSU ha(-1). The farm is oriented on closed mass cycles; from the energetic point of view it represents a low-input system (energy input 4.5 GJ ha(-1) yr(-1)). The conventional farm is a simple-structured cash crop system| based on mineral N (N input 145 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)). Regarding the energy consumption| the system is run on high inputs (energy input 14.0 GJ ha(-1) yr(-1)). The organic crop rotation reaches about 57% (8.3 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) of the DM yield| about 66% (163 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)) of the N removal and roughly 56% (3741 kg ha(-1) yr(-1))of the C fixation of the conventional crop rotation. In the organic rotation| 18 GJ per GJ of fossil energy input are bound in the harvested biomass vis-a-vis 11.1 GJ in the conventional rotation. The strongest influence on the greenhouse effect is exerted by C sequestration and N(2)O emissions. In Scheyern| C sequestration has set in under organic management (+0.37 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1))| while humus depletion has been recorded in the conventional system (-0.25 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)). Greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) due to fuel consumption and the use of machines are nearly on the same level in both crop rotations. However| the conventional system emits an additional 637 kg CO(2) eq ha(-1) yr(-1)| which had been consumed in the manufacture of mineral N and pesticides in the upstream industry. Besides the analyses in the experimental farm Scheyern| the model has been applied in 28 commercial farms (18 org and 10 con) with comparable soil and climate conditions in the surroundings of Scheyern (mean distance 60 km). The program calculations are aimed at benchmarking the results obtained in the farming systems Scheyern; they are expected to disclose management-specific variations in the emission of climate-relevant gases and to rate the suitability of the model for describing such management-specific effects. In order to make the situation in the farms comparable| only the emissions from cropping systems were analyzed. Livestock keeping remained unconsidered. Due to lower N and energy inputs| clearly lower N(2)O and CO(2) emissions were obtained for the organic farms than for the conventional systems. The analyses have shown possibilities for the optimization of management and the mitigation of GGE. Our findings underline that organic farming includes a high potential for C sequestration and the reduction of GGEs. Currently| the model REPRO is tested by 90 farms in the Federal Republic of Germany with the aim to apply it in the future not only in the field of research but also in the management of commercial farms. 8583,2008,3,4,Modeling China's semiconductor industry fluorinated compound emissions and drafting a roadmap for climate protection,Fluorinated compounds (FC) are high-global warming potential (GWP) greenhouse gases used and emitted during the manufacture of silicon semiconductor devices. Following the U.S. EPA's PFC Emissions Vintage Model (PEVM)| uncontrolled FC emissions are modeled as proportional to total manufactured layer area (TMLA) of silicon. FC emissions of World Semiconductor Council (WSC) charter member countries (Europe| Japan| Korea| Taiwan and the United States)| which voluntarily committed in 1999 to lower FC emissions by 2010 to 10% of baseline year emissions| are modeled for the period 1995-2020. For this same period| emissions from Chinese manufacturers under alternative emission reduction scenarios are modeled. If Chinese manufacturers were to adopt a baseline year of 2005 and a reduction target of 10% below baseline year emissions to be achieved by 2020| emissions would be 3.4 MMTCO(2)eq| comparable to the similarly projected controlled emissions of an average WSC charter member country (=16.3/5 MMTCO(2)eq) in 2020. The relative stringency of the alternative reduction scenarios considered for China vary between 50 and 95% reduction compared to business as usual (BAU). This is comparable to the stringency of the WSC charter members' goals for which FC emission reduction technologies are currently available. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 8656,2008,2,4,Modeling climate change and the effect on the norwegian salmon farming industry,Global warming is expected to affect the ecosystem in the Northeast Atlantic| and substantial changes will also affect the aquaculture industry. Farming of salmon and trout is the biggest aquaculture industry in Norway| with an export value of about 3 billion US dollars in 2007. The objective of the paper is to analyze the potential economic effect a general increase in sea temperature can have on the Norwegian salmon aquaculture industry. The assessment of the economic impact of global warming is made possible by estimating a growth function| which explicitly includes sea water temperature. The analysis compares the economic effect of a climate change on fish farming plants in the south and the north of Norway. The scenarios are based on a model with monthly seasonal variation in temperature. 1127,2008,4,4,Modeling ground water flow in alluvial mountainous catchments on a watershed scale,In large mountainous catchments| shallow unconfined alluvial aquifers play an important role in conveying Subsurface runoff to the foreland. Their relatively small extent poses a serious problem for ground water flow models on the river basin scale. River basin scale models describing the entire water cycle are necessary in integrated water resources management and to study the impact of global climate change on ground water resources. Integrated regional-scale models must use a coarse| fixed discretization to keep computational demands low and to facilitate model Coupling. This can lead to discrepancies between model discretization and the geometrical properties of natural systems. Here. an approach to overcome this discrepancy is discussed using the example of the German-Austrian Upper Danube catchment| where a coarse ground water flow model was developed using MODFLOW. The method developed uses a modified concept from a hydrological catchment drainage analysis in order to adapt the aquifer geometry such that it respects the numerical requirements of the chosen discretization| that is| the width and the thickness of cells as well as gradients and connectivity of the catchment. In order to show the efficiency of the developed method| it was tested and compared to a finely discretized ground water model of the Ammer subcatchment. The results of the analysis prove the applicability of the new approach and contribute to the idea of using physically based ground water models in large catchments. 1261,2008,2,4,Modeling patterns of nonlinearity in ecosystem responses to temperature| CO2| and precipitation changes,It is commonly acknowledged that ecosystem responses to global climate change are nonlinear. However| patterns of the nonlinearity have not been well characterized on ecosystem carbon and water processes. We used a terrestrial ecosystem (TECO) model to examine nonlinear patterns of ecosystem responses to changes in temperature| CO2| and precipitation individually or in combination. The TECO model was calibrated against experimental data obtained from a grassland ecosystem in the central United States and ran for 100 years with gradual change at 252 different scenarios. We primarily used the 100th-year results to explore nonlinearity of ecosystem responses. Variables examined in this study are net primary production (NPP)| heterotrophic respiration (R-h)| net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE)| runoff| and evapotranspiration (ET). Our modeling results show that nonlinear patterns were parabolic| asymptotic| and threshold-like in response to temperature| CO2| and precipitation anomalies| respectively| for NPP| NEE| and R-h. Runoff and ET exhibited threshold-like pattern in response to both temperature and precipitation anomalies but were less sensitive to CO2 changes. Ecosystem responses to combined temperature| CO2| and precipitation anomalies differed considerably from the responses to individual factors in terms of response patterns and/or critical points of nonlinearity. Our results suggest that nonlinear patterns in response to multiple global-change factors were diverse and were considerably affected by combined climate anomalies on ecosystem carbon and water processes. The diverse response patterns in nonlinearity have profound implications for both experimental design and theoretical development. 8486,2008,2,3,MODELING THE RESPONSE OF POPULATIONS OF COMPETING SPECIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE,Biotic interactions will modulate species' responses to climate change. Many approaches to predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity so far have been based purely on a climate envelope approach and have not considered direct and indirect species interactions. Using a long-term observational data set (>30 years) of competing intertidal barnacle species| we built a hierarchy of age-structured two-taxa population models (Semibalanus balanoides vs. Chthamalus montagui and C. stellatus combined as one taxon) to test if the presence of a dominant competitor can mediate climatic influence on the subordinate species. Models were parameterized using data from populations on the south coast of southwest England and verified by hindcasting using independent north coast population data. Recruitment of the dominant competitor| S. balanoides| is driven by temperature. The mechanisms of competition explored included simple space preemption and temperature-driven interference competition. The results indicate that interspecific competition between juvenile barnacles is important in regulating chthamalid density but not that of the dominant competitor S. balanoides. Simulations were carried out using alternative future climate scenarios to predict barnacle population abundance over the next century. Under all emission scenarios| the cold-water S. balanoides is predicted to virtually disappear from southwest England by the 2050s| leading to the competitive release of Chthamalus throughout the entire region and thereby substantially increasing its abundance and occupied habitat (by increasing vertical range on the shore). Our results demonstrate that climate change can profoundly affect the abundance and distribution of species through both the direct effects of temperature on survival| and also by altering important negative interactions through shifting competitive balances and essentially removing dominant competitors or predators. Climate change impacts on organisms are unlikely to lead only to straightforward| easily predictable changes in population size and distribution. The complex| indirect effects of climate change need to be taken into account if we are to accurately forecast the long-term effects of global warming. 8434,2008,2,4,Modelling and predicting fungal distribution patterns using herbarium data,The main aims of this study are: (1) to test if temperature and related parameters are the primary determinants of the regional distribution of macrofungi (as is commonly recognized for plants); (2) to test if the success of modelling fungal distribution patterns depends on species and distribution characteristics; and (3) to explore the potential of using herbarium data for modelling and predicting fungal species' distributions. The study area| Norway| spans 58-71 degrees N latitude and 4-32 degrees E longitude| and embraces extensive ecological gradients in a small area. The study is based on 1020 herbarium collections of nine selected species of macrofungi and a set of 75 environmental predictor variables| all recorded in a 5 x 5-km grid covering Norway. Primarily| generalized linear model (GLM; logistic regression) analyses were used to identify the environmental variables that best accounted for the species' recorded distributions in Norway. Second| Maxent analyses (using variables identified by GLM) were used to produce predictive potential distribution maps for these species. Variables relating to temperature and radiation were most frequently included in the GLMs| and between 24.8% and 59.8% of the variation in single-species occurrence was accounted for. The fraction of variation explained by the GLMs ranged from 41.6% to 59.8% for species with restricted distributions| and from 24.8% to 39.3% for species with widespread/scattered and intermediate distributions. The two-step procedure of GLM followed by Maxent gave predictions with very high values for the area under the curve (0.927-0.997)| and maps of potential distribution were generally credible. We show that temperature is a key factor governing the distribution of macrofungi in Norway| indicating that fungi may respond strongly to global warming. We confirm that modelling success depends partly on species and distribution characteristics| notably on how the distribution relates to the extent of the study area. Our study demonstrates that the combination of GLM and Maxent may be a fruitful approach for biogeography. We conclude that herbarium data improve insight into factors that control the distributions of fungi| of particular value for research on fleshy fungi (mushrooms)| which have largely cryptic life cycles. 8574,2008,3,3,Modelling of combustion and nitrogen oxide formation in hydrogen-fuelled internal combustion engines within a 3D CFD code,The concerns about global warming and long-term lack of fossil fuels are strong incentives for alternative fuel research and adaptation of the internal combustion engines (ICE) to these fuels. Because it is free of any carbon compounds and can be produced from alternative sources| hydrogen is an interesting candidate for future ICE-based powertrains. However| the peculiar properties of hydrogen| among those its low density and its very high laminar flame speed| impose specific operating strategies and the adaptation of the conventional research tools. in this context| the 3D CFD models dedicated to combustion and pollutant prediction have to be modified. in the present work| the ECFM (Extended Coherent Flame Model) is adapted to hydrogen combustion through the addition of a new laminar flame speed correlation and a new laminar flame thickness expression. Furthermore| the prediction of the NO| emissions is performed with a modified version of the extended Zeldovitch model. (C) 2008 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8693,2008,2,4,Modelling recruitment dynamics of hake| Merluccius merluccius| in the central Mediterranean in relation to key environmental variables,Hake recruitment has been examined in relation to environmental variables in two of the main reproductive areas of the central Mediterranean| the northern and central Tyrrhenian Sea. Seventeen years time series data from trawl surveys revealed high fluctuations in recruit abundance that could not be just explained by spawning biomass estimations. Generalized additive models were developed to investigate hake recruitment dynamics in the Tyrrhenian Sea in relation to spawner abundance and selected key oceanographic variables. Environmental data were explored in attempt to explain survival processes that could affect early life history stages of hake and that accounted for high fluctuations in its recruitment. Thermal anomalies in summer| characterised by high peaks in water temperature| revealed a negative effect on the abundance of recruits in autumn| probably due to a reduction in hake egg and larval survival rates. In the northern Tyrrhenian| recruitment was reduced when elevated sea-surface temperatures were coupled with lower levels of water circulation. Enhanced spring primary production| related to late winter low temperatures could affect water mass productivity in the following months| thus influencing spring recruitment. In the central Tyrrhenian a dome-shaped relationship between wind mixing in early spring and recruitment could be interpreted as an "optimal environmental window" in which intermediate water mixing level played a positive role in phytoplankton displacement| larval feeding rate and appropriate larval drift. Results are discussed in relation to the decline in hake stock biomass and within the present climate change and global warming context. (C) 2008 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved. 8781,2008,2,4,Modelling regional climate changes: influences of recent global warming and irrigation in California,A regional climate model is used to explore the influences of global warming and land use changes on past climate change in California. The model experiments utilize a methodology| which is suggested by an exploration of the uncertainties associated with a regional model forced by global climate model output. The results are based primarily on an analysis of the output of three model runs. In the first| we prescribe modem land cover and irrigation conditions and force the model with recent meteorological conditions. In the second| we prescribe an historical land cover without irrigation and force with past conditions| derived from a global coupled climate model. In the third| we prescribe the historical land cover without irrigation| but force with the recent conditions. The model results show that global warming has a large effect on precipitation| snow water| surface temperature| low level winds and soil moisture They also show in summer that irrigation has a strong effect on the differences between recent and past conditions in maximum temperature| surface latent and sensible heat fluxes| surface moisture| and surface humidity. The primary uncertainty associated with these conclusions is related to the use of boundary forcing from a single global climate model. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society. 9088,2008,3,4,Modelling the environmental impact of an aluminium pressure die casting plant and options for control,This study describes a model (MIKADO) to analyse options to reduce the environmental impact of aluminium die casting. This model will take a company perspective| so that it can be used as a decision-support tool for the environmental management of a plant. MIKADO can be used to perform scenario analyses to analyse the impact on the environment of different strategies| while taking into account both economical and ecological consequences of decision-making. The MIKADO approach is based on relevant parts of Life Cycle Assessment| environmental systems management and Multi-criteria Analysis. One of the strengths of MIKADO is the integrated approach that it takes in analysing| simultaneously| a set of eight environmental problems| including: human toxicity| abiotic depletion| global warming| solid waste production| acidification| terrestrial ecotoxicity| photochemical ozone formation and aquatic toxicity| caused by the aluminium die casting plant. The model is developed for and applied to a specific aluminium die casting plant supplying car manufacturers with aluminium die casting products. We present model results for a reference case| indicating that most of the environmental impact of the plant is associated with releases of compounds during the melting and casting of alloy| as well as with the use of natural gas. Finally| we present results of a partial sensitivity analysis| indicating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameter values. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9089,2008,3,3,Models for the estimation of building integrated photovoltaic systems in urban environments,Growing concerns of global warming has spurred a rapid growth in micro-renewable technologies. Technologies| which can be integrated into building structures| such as photovoltaic and solar thermal systems| are a popular choice with clients and installers. Traditional solar energy models are often used when designing building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems. Problems are often encountered in urban locations where BIPV systems do not meet their design performance. This is because the solar energy models used in the design process include only the effects of shading caused by the blockage of the beam component| but do not consider the effects of overall global dimming| caused by the reduction of the diffuse component emanating from the sky hemisphere due to surrounding obstacles| such as buildings and trees. The current paper presents two models| which have been developed to incorporate the effects of shading of either the beam component| or the shading of both the beam and the diffuse components on BIPV output. 8743,2008,3,3,Modern and appropriate technologies for the reduction of gaseous pollutants and their effects on the environment,Harmful effects on environment such as global warming and climate change may result from the gases emanating from fossil fuel combustion. Jordan and most Middle East countries use fossil fuels exclusively. Therefore| new technologies which could accommodate the demand for cleaner effluents| such as: combined cycles| fluidized bed combustion| magneto hydrodynamics| fuel cells| nuclear power| natural gas| renewable energy| and energy conservation have been considered. CO2 being the most produced gas| many technical methods of reducing and reusing CO2 have been suggested such as: Injection in oceans| storage in caverns| injection in depleted oil and gas fields| pumping during oil recovery| storage as CO2 ice| elimination by fixation using water algae| and increasing plantation especially forestation. These methods are being used at different degrees in the Middle East countries. Reduction of formation and harmful effects of other gaseous pollutants is also discussed| with some concentration on the transportation sector| energy efficiency and fuel cells| which have special importance for the developing countries. 1330,2008,2,4,Modulation of the adrenocortical responses to acute stress in northern and southern populations of Zonotrichia,How animals respond to perturbations of the environment is relevant to the effects of global climate change and human disturbance. The physiological mechanisms underlying facultative responses to unpredictable perturbations of the environment will allow us to understand why some populations are able to cope more than others. This is important for basic biology as well as for conservation. Northern populations of White-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia leucophrys)| show varying degrees of modulation of the adrenocortical response to acute stress early in the breeding season. These variations are related to a short breeding season at high latitudes and altitudes (up-regulation of the stress response)| and possibly degree of parental care (down-regulation of the stress response). Investigations of many taxa from the northern hemisphere indicate these types of modulation are widespread among vertebrates. However| modulation of the adrenocortical response to stress is much less well-known in the southern hemisphere and Neotropical birds present an ideal model system to test whether patterns of hormonal responses to stress in the northern hemisphere are consistent worldwide. Equatorial| high altitude| populations of the Rufous-collared Sparrow (Z. capensis costaricensis)| a southern congener of the White-crowned Sparrow| have long breeding seasons| but show no early breeding up-regulation of the adrenocortical responses to stress. This pattern is more similar to mid-latitude| low altitude| populations of White-crowned Sparrows; Whether austral high latitude and altitude populations of the Rufous-collared Sparrows modulate these processes| under presumably similar constraints of mid- to high latitude seasonality in the north| is currently under investigation. 8431,2008,2,4,Molecular and Ecological Characterization of Extralimital Populations of Red-Legged Frogs from Western North America,Extralimital populations of red-legged frogs have recently been found on Graham Island (Queen Charlotte Islands)| British Columbia| and on Chichagof Island| Alaska. Both islands are well north of the traditionally understood (or core) range of red-legged frogs in western North America. The Chichagof Island frogs are known to be introduced| and the Graham Island frogs are suspected to be introduced. However| species-level identification of these populations remains uncertain. Recent phylogeographic analyses have demonstrated that there are two species of red-legged frogs| Rana aurora and Rana draytonii| and R. aurora is more closely related to the Cascades Frog| Rana cascadae (i.e.| [aurora + draytonii] is not monophyletic). Here| we compare new mtDNA sequence data from these extralimital populations to available sequences from 50 populations from the core range of red-legged frogs. These results demonstrate that both extralimital populations are the Northern Red-Legged Frog| R. aurora| and are most closely related to haplotypes found in the most northern clade of R. aurora. Further| we conduct ecological niche modeling under current conditions and future conditions that assume a global warming scenario to assess habitat suitability in southeastern Alaska and the Queen Charlotte Islands and the potential for the persistence and expansion of the extralimital populations. These analyses suggest that the extralimital populations occur in the most suitable habitat on Graham and Chichagof Islands and that suitability will increase on Graham and decrease on Chichagof Island in the future. These results are used to discuss several management options for the extralimital R. aurora. 8875,2008,4,4,Molecular genetic variation in the African wild rice Oryza longistaminata A. Chev. et Roehr. and its association with environmental variables,Molecular markers| complemented by appropriate Geographical Information System (GIS) software packages are powerful tools in mapping the geographical distribution of genetic variation and assessing its relationship with environmental variables. The objective of the study was therefore to investigate the relationship between genetic diversity and eco-geographic variables using Oryza longistaminata as a case study. The methodology used was a novel technique that combined hierarchical cluster analysis of both molecular diversity generated using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) and climate data available in a GIS software. The study clearly established that there is a close relationship between genetic diversity and eco-geographic variables. The study also revealed that genetic diversity is a function of annual rainfall| and peak diversity occurs in intermediate rainfall areas reflecting the 'curvilinear theory' of clinal relationship between the level of genetic diversity and rainfall. The clear association of genetic diversity with rainfall allows the extrapolation of the potential impacts of global warming on diversity when empirical data on predicted climate models| particularly rainfall| are available. This knowledge would therefore be useful in the development of conservation measures to mitigate the effects of genetic erosion through climate change. 8403,2008,3,3,Molecular structure and radiative efficiency of fluorinated ethers: A structure-activity relationship,Fluorinated ethers are receiving attention as possible replacements for ozone-depleting substances. Accurate knowledge of their radiative forcing is required to assess the contribution of these compounds to climate change. Radiative efficiency is a metric used to determine the potential of long-lived greenhouse gases to impact climate. A structure-activity relationship ( SAR) was derived that can estimate the majority of radiative efficiencies of fluorinated ether compounds within 25% of the published experimentally determined values. The SAR allows prediction of radiative efficiency solely from molecular structure and was developed from 154 calculated and 11 experimentally measured infrared spectra for fluorinated ethers. Stretching vibrations for C-F bonds adjacent to an ether oxygen absorb at lower frequencies than those which are further removed from the ether moiety| which typically gives rise to a higher radiative efficiency. Molecular structure plays an important role in determining the radiative efficiency of fluorinated ethers. The SAR developed herein could be used in the design of new fluorinated ethers that have minimal climate impacts. 9017,2008,5,4,Molybdenum isotope evidence for global ocean anoxia coupled with perturbations to the carbon cycle during the early Jurassic,Relatively brief periods of severe paleoenvironmental change during the Jurassic and Cretaceous were associated with the widespread accumulation of organic-rich marine deposits| termed oceanic anoxic events (OAEs). These intervals involved abrupt global warming of similar to 5-10 degrees C| higher rates of continental weathering| elevated extinction rates| and large-scale perturbations to the global carbon cycle. The major OAEs also overlapped temporally the emplacement of large igneous provinces. However| despite being known as OAEs| the extent of seawater anoxia at those times is undefined and the causative processes remain unclear. Here we show how changes in seawater molybdenum isotope ratios (a proxy for seawater anoxia) during the Toarcian (Early Jurassic) OAE define the onset and expansion of oxygen deficient conditions. Our data also place constraints on the areal extent of marine anoxia during the event and demonstrate that anoxia expanded and contracted periodically| broadly in line with precession-driven changes in delta C-13(org). Despite their intermittent occurrence over geological history| OAEs have an important contemporary relevance because the magnitude and high rates of environmental change then were broadly similar to those occurring at the present day. 8622,2008,2,4,Monitoring environmental change in an ecosystem,The monitoring and analysis of the processes taking place in an ecosystem is a key issue for a sustainable human activity. A system Of Populations| as the biotic component of a complex ecosystem is usually affected by the variation of its abiotic environment. Even in nearly natural ecosystems an abiotic effect like climatic implications of global warming may cause important changes in the dynamics of the population system. In ecosystems involving field cultivation or any industrial activity; the abiotic parameter in question may be the concentration of a Substance| changing| e.g. as a result of pollution| application of a pesticide| or a fertilizer| etc. In many cases the observation of the densities of each population may be technically complicated or expensive| therefore the question arises whether from the observation of the densities of certain (indicator) populations| the whole state process of the population system can be uniquely recovered. The paper is aimed at a methodological development of the state monitoring| under the conditions of a changing environment. It is shown| how the technique of mathematical systems theory can be applied not only for the approximate calculation of the state process on the basis of the observed data| even under the effect of an exogene abiotic change with known dynamics; but in certain cases| also for the estimation of the unknown biological effect of the change of an abiotic parameter. The proposed methodology is applied to simple illustrative examples concerning a three-species predator-prey system. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. 1202,2008,2,4,More than information: what coastal managers need to plan for climate change,Climate change and sea-level rise (SLR) increasingly threaten the world's coastlines| managers at local| regional| state| and federal levels will need to plan and implement adaptation measures to cope with these impacts in order to continue to protect the economic| social| and environmental security of the state and of local communities. In this paper| we explore the information needs of California coastal managers as they begin confronting the growing risks from climate change. Through this case study we examine the challenges managers face presently| what information they use to perform their responsibilities| what additional information and other knowledge resources they may need to begin planning for climate change. We place our study into the broader context of the study of how science can best support policy-makers and resource managers as they begin to plan and prepare for adaptation to climate change. Based on extensive interview and survey research in the state| we find that managers prefer certain types of information and information sources and would benefit from various learning opportunities (in addition to that information) to make better use of available global change information. Coastal managers are concerned about climate change and willing to address it in their work| but require financial and technical assistance from other agencies at the state and federal level to do so. The study illustrates the strong need for boundary organizations to serve various intermediary functions between science and practice| especially in the context of adaptation to global climate change impacts. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8937,2008,2,4,Mortality selection during the 2003 European heat wave in three-spined sticklebacks: effects of parasites and MHC genotype,Background: Ecological interaction strength may increase under environmental stress including temperature. How such stress enhances and interacts with parasite selection is almost unknown. We studied the importance of resistance genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II in 14 families of three-spined sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus exposed to their natural macroparasites in field enclosures in the extreme summer of 2003. Results: After a mass die-off during the 2003-European heat wave killing 78% of 277 experimental fish| we found strong differences in survival among and within families. In families with higher average parasite load fewer individuals survived. Multivariate analysis revealed that the composition of the infecting parasite fauna was family specific. Within families| individuals with an intermediate number of MHC class IIB sequence variants survived best and had the lowest parasite load among survivors| suggesting a direct functional link between MHC diversity and fitness. The within family MHC effects were| however| small compared to between family effects| suggesting that other genetic components or non-genetic effects were also important. Conclusion: The correlation between parasite load and mortality that we found at both individual and family level might have appeared only in the extraordinary heatwave of 2003. Due to global warming the frequency of extreme climatic events is predicted to increase| which might intensify costs of parasitism and enhance selection on immune genes. 1145,2008,4,4,Multi-angular polarized characteristics of cirrus clouds,Cirrus is mainly composed of non-spherical ice crystals in various shapes and plays an important roles in Earth's radiation budget and global climate change. Knowledge of cirrus properties is crucial for studying the radiation budget and climate change. Thus studies of the optical| microphysical properties| and physical properties of cirrus have become the popular issue. The optical properties of cirrus at 0.865 mu m are studied. And the reflectance and polarized reflectance to cirrus optical parameters and surface albedo are evaluated. The results indicate that the polarized reflectance over a large range of scattering angles can show the information of cirrus properties. Based on the studies of the sensitivity| the basic theory of using the remote sensing data of multi-angular polarized measurements to retrieve the properties of cirrus is proposed. 9065,2008,4,2,Multi-model Bayesian assessment of climate change in the northern annular mode,A typical question in climate change analysis is whether a certain observed climate characteristic| like a pronounced anomaly or an interdecadal trend| is an indicator of anthropogenic climate change or still in the range of natural variability. Many climatic features are described by one-dimensional index time series| like for instance the global mean temperature or circulation indices. Here| we present a Bayesian classification approach applied to the time series of the northern annular mode (NAM)| which is the leading mode of Northern Hemisphere climate variability. After a pronounced negative phase during the 1950s and 1960s| the observed NAM index reveals a distinct positive trend| which is also simulated by various climate model simulations under enhanced greenhouse conditions. The objective of this study is to decide whether the observed temporal evolution of the NAM may be an indicator of global warming. Given a set of prior probabilities for disturbed and undisturbed climate scenarios| the Bayesian decision theorem decides whether the observed NAM trend is classified in a control climate| a greenhouse-gas plus sulphate aerosol climate or a purely greenhouse-gas induced climate as derived from multi-model ensemble simulations. The three climate scenarios are well separated from each other in terms of the 30-year NAM trends. The multi-model ensembles contain a weak but statistically significant climate change signal in the form of an intensification of the NAM. The Bayesian classification suggests that the greenhouse-gas scenario is the most probable explanation for the observed NAM trend since 1960| even if a high prior probability is assigned to the control climate. However| there are still large uncertainties in this classification result because some periods at the end of the 19th century and during the "warm" 1920s are also classified in an anthropogenic climate| although natural forcings are likely responsible for this early NAM intensification. This demonstrates a basic shortcoming of the Bayesian decision theorem when it is based on one-dimensional index time series like the NAM index. (c) 2007 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved. 8723,2008,2,4,Multidecadal variability in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity,Recent increases in Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity since 1995 and the associated destructive U.S. landfall events in 2004 and 2005 have generated considerable interest into why there has been such a sharp upturn. Natural variability| human-induced global warming| or a combination of both factors| have been suggested. Several previous studies have discussed observed multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic over 25-40-yr time scales. This study| using data from 1878 to the present| creates a metric based on far North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies and basinwide North Atlantic sea level pressure anomalies that shows remarkable agreement with observed multidecadal variability in both Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity and in U.S. landfall frequency. 8462,2008,2,3,Multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity: 1851-2007,An analysis of Atlantic hurricane data (HURDAT)| using a hurricane activity index that integrates over hurricane numbers| durations| and strengths during the years 1851-2007| suggests a quasi-periodic behavior with a period around 60 years superimposed upon a linearly increasing background. The linearly increasing background is significantly reduced or removed when various corrections were applied for hurricane undercounting in the early portion of the record. The periodic-like behavior is persistent in uncorrected HURDAT data as well as in data corrected for possible missing storms. The record contains two complete cycles: 1860-1920 and 1920-1980. The 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons were unusual in that two intense hurricane seasons occurred in consecutive years. The probability for this happening in any given year is estimated to be less then 1%. Comparing the last 28 years (1980-2007) with the preceding 28 years (1953-1980)| we find a modest increase in the number of minor hurricanes (category 1 and 2); however| we find no increase in the number of major hurricanes (category 3-5). The hurricane activity index is found to be highly correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode (AMM). If there is an increase in hurricane activity connected to a greenhouse gas induced global warming| it is currently obscured by the 60 year quasi-periodic cycle. 8435,2008,3,2,Multiphase CFD Modeling for a Chemical Looping Combustion Process (Fuel Reactor),There are growing concerns about increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and a looming global warming crisis. CO(2)| is a greenhouse gas that affects the climate of the earth. Fossil fuel consumption is the major source of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Chemical looping combustion (CLC) has been suggested as all energy-efficient method for the capture of carbon dioxide from combustion. A chemical-looping combustion system consists of a fuel reactor and an air reactor. The air reactor consists of a conventional circulating fluidized bed and the fuel reactor is a bubbling fluidized bed. The basic principle involves avoiding direct contact of air and fuel during the combustion. The oxygen is transferred by the oxygen carrier from the air to the fuel. The water in combustion products can be easily removed by condensation and pure carbon dioxide is obtained without any loss of energy for separation. With the improvement of numerical methods and more advanced hardware technology| the time required to run CFD (computational fluid dynamic) codes is decreasing. Hence| multiphase CFD-based models for dealing with complex gas-solid hydrodynamics and chemical reactions are becoming more accessible. To date| there are no reports in the literature concerning mathematical modeling of chemical-looping combustion using FLUENT. In this work| the reaction kinetics models of the (CaSO(4) + HA fuel reactor is developed by means of the commercial code FLUENT. The effects of particle diameter| gas flow rate and bed temperature on chemical looping combustion performance are also studied. The results show that the high bed temperature| low gas flow rate and small particle size could enhance the CLC performance. 8793,2008,2,3,Multivariate stochastic downscaling models for generating precipitation and temperature scenarios of climate change based on atmospheric circulation,The spatial resolution of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is too coarse to represent regional climate changes at the scales required for environmental impact assessment. Therefore| downscaling of precipitation and temperature has to be carried out from the GCM grids to smaller scales of a few square kilometres. Daily precipitation and temperature are modelled as stochastic processes coupled to atmospheric circulation. Precipitation is linked to circulation patterns (CPS) using conditional model parameters. Temperature is modelled using a simple autoregressive model conditioned on atmospheric circulation and local daily precipitation. The models use an automated objective classification of daily atmospheric circulation patterns based on optimized fuzzy rules. Both temperature and precipitation are downscaled to several locations taking into account the CP dependent spatial correlation. The models were applied to the Mesochora medium-sized mountainous catchment in Central Greece for validation using observed precipitation and temperature and observed classified geo-potential heights (at 700 hPa). GCM scenarios of the ECHAM4 model for 1xCO(2) and 2xCO(2) cases were used to make climate change predictions (by using classified GCM geopotential heights). Simulated values agree fairly well with historical data. Most of the GCM results (incl. mean daily values| renewal process probabilities| spell lengths) under the 2xCO(2) case reflect a somewhat wetter and a more variable precipitation regime over the Mesochora catchment with significantly increased daily mean temperatures. 1247,2008,2,4,Mushroom fruiting and climate change,Many species of fungi produce ephemeral autumnal fruiting bodies to spread and multiply. Despite their attraction for mushroom pickers and their economic importance| little is known about the phenology of fruiting bodies. Using approximate to 34|500 dated herbarium records we analyzed changes in the autumnal fruiting date of mushrooms in Norway over the period 1940-2006. We show that the time of fruiting has changed considerably over this time period| with an average delay in fruiting since 1980 of 12.9 days. The changes differ strongly between species and groups of species. Early-fruiting species have experienced a stronger delay than late fruiters| resulting in a more compressed fruiting season. There is also a geographic trend of earlier fruiting in the northern and more continental parts of Norway than in more southern and oceanic parts. Incorporating monthly precipitation and temperature variables into the analyses provides indications that increasing temperatures during autumn and winter months bring about significant delay of fruiting both in the same year and in the subsequent year. The recent changes in autumnal mushroom phenology coincide with the extension of the growing season caused by global climate change and are likely to continue under the current climate change scenario. 8396,2008,2,3,Muted precipitation increase in global warming simulations: A surface evaporation perspective,Atmospheric moisture content is expected to rise in response to global warming| but climate models predict a much slower rate of precipitation increase. This muted response of the hydrological cycle is investigated from a surface evaporation perspective| using a multimodel ensemble of simulations under the A1B forcing scenario. A 90-year analysis of surface evaporation based on a standard bulk formula reveals that the following atmospheric changes act to slow down the increase in surface evaporation over ice-free oceans: surface relative humidity increases by 1.0%| surface stability| as measured by air-sea temperature difference| increases by 0.2 K| and surface wind speed decreases by 0.02 m/s. As a result of these changes| surface evaporation increases by only 2% per Kelvin of surface warming| rather than the 7%/K rate simulated for atmospheric moisture. The increased surface stability and relative humidity are robust across models. The former is nearly uniform over ice-free oceans while the latter features a subtropical peak on either side of the equator. While relative humidity changes are positive almost everywhere in a thin surface layer| changes aloft show positive trends in the deep tropics and negative ones in the subtropics. The surface-trapped structure suggests the following mechanism: owing to its thermal inertia| the ocean lags behind the atmospheric warming| and this retarding effect causes an increase in surface stability and relative humidity| analogously to advection fog. Our results call for observational efforts to monitor and detect changes in surface relative humidity and stability over the world ocean. 8480,2008,3,4,N(2)O emissions and carbon sequestration in a nitrogen-fertilized Douglas fir stand,This study investigated how nitrogen (N) fertilization with 200 kg N ha(-1) of a 58-yearold West Coast Douglas fir stand influenced its net greenhouse gas (GHG) global warming potential (GWP) in the first year after fertilization. Effects of fertilization on GHG GWP were calculated considering changes in soil N(2)O emissions| measured using the static chamber technique and the soil N(2)O gradient technique; eddy covariance (EC) measured net ecosystem productivity (NEP); and energy requirements of fertilizer production| transport| and its aerial spreading. We found significant N(2)O losses in fertilized plots compared to a small uptake in nonfertilized plots. Chamber-measured N loss in the fertilized plots was about 16 kg N(2)O ha(-1) in the first year| which is equivalent to 10 kg N ha(-1) or 5% of the applied fertilizer N. Soil N(2)O emissions measured using the gradient technique| however| exceeded the chamber measurements by about 50%. We also compared a polymer-coated slow-release urea with regular urea and found that the former delayed N(2)O emissions but the year-end total loss was about the same as that from regular urea. Change in NEP due to fertilization was determined by relating annual NEP for the nonfertilized stand to environmental controls using an empirical and a process-based model. Annual NEP increased by 64%| from 326 g C m(-2)| calculated assuming that the stand was not fertilized| to the measured value of 535 g C m(-2) with fertilization. At the end of the year| net change in GHG GWP was -2.28 t CO(2) ha(-1) compared to what it would have been without fertilization| thereby indicating favorable effect of fertilization even in the first year after fertilization with significant emissions of N(2)O. 9143,2008,3,3,N2O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels,The relationship| on a global basis| between the amount of N fixed by chemical| biological or atmospheric processes entering the terrestrial biosphere| and the total emission of nitrous oxide (N2O)| has been re-examined| using known global atmospheric removal rates and concentration growth of N2O as a proxy for overall emissions. For both the pre-industrial period and in recent times| after taking into account the large-scale changes in synthetic N fertiliser production| we find an overall conversion factor of 3-5% from newly fixed N to N2O-N. We assume the same factor to be valid for biofuel production systems. It is covered only in part by the default conversion factor for "direct" emissions from agricultural crop lands (1%) estimated by IPCC (2006)| and the default factors for the "indirect" emissions (following volatilization/deposition and leaching/runoff of N: 0.35-0.45%) cited therein. However| as we show in the paper| when additional emissions included in the IPCC methodology| e.g. those from livestock production| are included| the total may not be inconsistent with that given by our "top-down" method. When the extra N2O emission from biofuel production is calculated in "CO2-equivalent" global warming terms| and compared with the quasi-cooling effect of "saving" emissions of fossil fuel derived CO2| the outcome is that the production of commonly used biofuels| such as biodiesel from rapeseed and bioethanol from corn (maize)| depending on N fertilizer uptake efficiency by the plants| can contribute as much or more to global warming by N2O emissions than cooling by fossil fuel savings. Crops with less N demand| such as grasses and woody coppice species| have more favourable climate impacts. This analysis only considers the conversion of biomass to biofuel. It does not take into account the use of fossil fuel on the farms and for fertilizer and pesticide production| but it also neglects the production of useful co-products. Both factors partially compensate each other. This needs to be analyzed in a full life cycle assessment. 1225,2008,3,4,Nanotechnology and its impact on the German energy sector,In regard to finite resources and in view of the global climate change sustainable development in energy supply gains importance. In addition to the improvement of conventional technologies and the use this context new technologies and innovations get more important. The Of renewable energies in described work analyses Innovative products and processes based on nanotechnology| with respect to the German energy industry. 8739,2008,3,3,Native wildlife on rangelands to minimize methane and produce lower-emission meat: kangaroos versus livestock,Ruminant livestock produce the greenhouse gas methane and so contribute to global warming and biodiversity reduction. Methane from the foregut of cattle and sheep constitutes 11% of Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Kangaroos| on the other hand| are nonruminant forestomach fermenters that produce negligible amounts of methane. We quantified the GHG savings Australia could make if livestock were reduced on the rangelands where kangaroo harvesting occurs and kangaroo numbers increased to 175 million to produce same amount of meat. Removing 7 million cattle and 36 million sheep by 2020 would lower Australia's GHG emissions by 16 megatonnes| or 3% of Australia's annual emissions. However| the change will require large cultural and social adjustments and reinvestment. Trials are underway based on international experiences of managing free-ranging species. They are enabling collaboration between farmers| and if they also show benefits to sustainability| rural productivity| and conservation of biodiversity| they could be expanded to incorporate change on the scale of this article. Farmers have few options to reduce the contribution that livestock make to GHG production. Using kangaroos to produce low-emission meat is an option for the Australian rangelands which would avoid permit fees under Australia's Emissions Trading Scheme| and could even have global application. 9176,2008,3,3,Natural cross-ventilation in buildings: Building-scale experiments| numerical simulation and thermal comfort evaluation,The constantly increasing energy consumption due to the use of mechanical ventilation contributes to atmospheric pollution and global warming. An alternative method to overcome this problem is natural ventilation. The proper design of natural ventilation must be based on detailed understanding of airflow within enclosed spaces| governed by pressure differences due to wind and buoyancy forces. In the present study| natural cross-ventilation with openings at non-symmetrical locations is examined experimentally in a test chamber and numerically using advanced computational fluid dynamics techniques. The experimental part consisted of temperature and velocity measurements at strategically selected locations in the chamber| during noon and afternoon hours of typical summer days. External weather conditions were recorded by a weather station at the chamber's site. The computational part of the study consisted of the steady-state application of three Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models modified to account for both wind and buoyancy effects: the standard k-epsilon| the RNG k-epsilon and the so-called "realizable" k-epsilon models. Two computational domains were used| corresponding to each recorded wind incidence angle. It is concluded that all turbulence models applied agree relatively well with the experimental measurements. The indoor thermal environment was also studied using two thermal comfort models found in literature for the estimation of thermal comfort under high-temperature experimental conditions. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8808,2008,5,4,Natural variability of Greenland climate| vegetation| and ice volume during the past million years,The response of the Greenland ice sheet to global warming is a source of concern notably because of its potential contribution to changes in the sea level. We demonstrated the natural vulnerability of the ice sheet by using pollen records from marine sediment off southwest Greenland that indicate important changes of the vegetation in Greenland over the past million years. The vegetation that developed over southern Greenland during the last interglacial period is consistent with model experiments| suggesting a reduced volume of the Greenland ice sheet. Abundant spruce pollen indicates that boreal coniferous forest developed some 400|000 years ago during the "warm" interval of marine isotope stage 11| providing a time frame for the development and decline of boreal ecosystems over a nearly ice- free Greenland. 8748,2008,2,4,Navigating the transition to ecosystem-based management of the Great Barrier Reef| Australia,We analyze the strategies and actions that enable transitions toward ecosystem-based management using the recent governance changes of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park as a case study. The interplay among individual actors| organizations| and institutions at multiple levels is central in such transitions. A flexible organization| the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority| was crucial in initiating the transition to ecosystem-based management. This agency was also instrumental in the subsequent transformation of the governance regime and provided leadership throughout the process. Strategies involved internal reorganization and management innovation| leading to an ability to coordinate the scientific community| to increase public awareness of environmental issues and problems| to involve a broader set of stakeholders| and to maneuver the political system for support at critical times. The transformation process was induced by increased pressure on the Great Barrier Reef (from terrestrial runoff| over-harvesting| and global warming) that triggered a new sense of urgency to address these challenges. The focus of governance shifted from protection of selected individual reefs to stewardship of the larger-scale seascape. The study emphasizes the significance of stewardship that can change patterns of interactions among key actors and allow for new forms of management and governance to emerge in response to environmental change. This example illustrates that enabling legislations or other social bounds are essential| but not sufficient for shifting governance toward adaptive comanagement of complex marine ecosystems. 8397,2008,3,3,Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk,One approach in climate-change policy is to set normative long-term targets first and then infer the implied emissions pathways. An important example of a normative target is to limit the global-mean temperature change to a certain maximum. In general| reported cost estimates for limiting global warming often rise rapidly| even exponentially| as the scale of emission reductions from a reference level increases. This rapid rise may suggest that more ambitious policies may be prohibitively expensive. Here| we propose a probabilistic perspective| focused on the relationship between mitigation costs and the likelihood of achieving a climate target. We investigate the qualitative| functional relationship between the likelihood of achieving a normative target and the costs of climate-change mitigation. In contrast to the example of exponentially rising costs for lowering concentration levels| we show that the mitigation costs rise proportionally to the likelihood of meeting a temperature target| across a range of concentration levels. In economic terms investing in climate mitigation to increase the probability of achieving climate targets yields "constant returns to scale|'' because of a counterbalancing rapid rise in the probabilities of meeting a temperature target as concentration is lowered. 1211,2008,2,4,Neutral metacommunity models predict fish diversity patterns in Mississippi-Missouri basin,River networks| seen as ecological corridors featuring connected and hierarchical dendritic landscapes for animals and plants| present unique challenges and opportunities for testing biogeographical theories and macroecological laws(1). Although local and basin- scale differences in riverine fish diversity have been analysed as functions of energy availability and habitat heterogeneity(2)| scale- dependent environmental conditions(3) and river discharge(4|5)| a model that predicts a comprehensive set of system-wide diversity patterns has been hard to find. Here we show that fish diversity patterns throughout the Mississippi - Missouri River System are well described by a neutral metacommunity model coupled with an appropriate habitat capacity distribution and dispersal kernel. River network structure acts as an effective template for characterizing spatial attributes of fish biodiversity. We show that estimates of average dispersal behaviour and habitat capacities| objectively calculated from average runoff production| yield reliable predictions of large- scale spatial biodiversity patterns in riverine systems. The success of the neutral theory in two- dimensional forest ecosystems(6-8) and here in dendritic riverine ecosystems suggests the possible application of neutral metacommunity models in a diverse suite of ecosystems. This framework offers direct linkage from large- scale forcing| such as global climate change| to biodiversity patterns. 8446,2008,4,4,New Insights into North European and North Atlantic Surface Pressure Variability| Storminess| and Related Climatic Change since 1830,The authors present initial results of a new pan-European and international storminess since 1800 as interpreted from European and North Atlantic barometric pressure variability (SENABAR) project. This first stage analyzes results of a new daily pressure variability index| dp(abs) 24| from long-running meteorological stations in Denmark| the Faroe Islands| Greenland| Iceland| the United Kingdom| and Ireland| some with data from as far back as the 1830s. It is shown that dp(abs) 24 is significantly related to wind speed and is therefore a good measure of Atlantic and Northwest European storminess and climatic variations. The authors investigate the temporal and spatial consistency of dp(abs) 24| the connection between annual and seasonal dp(abs) 24 and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI)| as well as dp(abs) 24 links with historical storm records. The results show periods of relatively high dp(abs) 24 and enhanced storminess around 1900 and the early to mid-1990s| and a relatively quiescent period from about 1930 to the early 1960s| in keeping with earlier studies. There is little evidence that the mid-to late nineteenth century was less stormy than the present| and there is no sign of a sustained enhanced storminess signal associated with "global warming." The results mark the first step of a project intending to improve on earlier work by linking barometric pressure data from a wide network of stations with new gridded pressure and reanalysis datasets| GCMs| and the NAOI. This work aims to provide much improved spatial and temporal coverage of changes in European| Atlantic| and global storminess. 8800,2008,2,3,NF(3)| the greenhouse gas missing from Kyoto,[1] Nitrogen trifluoride (NF(3)) can be called the missing greenhouse gas: It is a synthetic chemical produced in industrial quantities; it is not included in the Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases or in national reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); and there are no observations documenting its atmospheric abundance. Current publications report a long lifetime of 740 yr and a global warming potential (GWP)| which in the Kyoto basket is second only to SF(6). We re-examine the atmospheric chemistry of NF(3) and calculate a shorter lifetime of 550 yr| but still far beyond any societal time frames. With 2008 production equivalent to 67 million metric tons of CO(2)| NF(3) has a potential greenhouse impact larger than that of the industrialized nations' emissions of PFCs or SF(6)| or even that of the world's largest coal-fired power plants. If released| annual production would increase the lower atmospheric abundance by 0.4 ppt| and it is urgent to document NF(3) emissions through atmospheric observations. 9022,2008,2,4,Nitrogen fertiliser rate and post-anthesis waterlogging effects on carbohydrate and nitrogen dynamics in wheat,Waterlogging is predicted to increase in both magnitude and frequency along with global warming| and will become one of the most severe adversities for crop production in many regions. Nitrogen is considered to be an effective up-regulatory nutrient for crops grown under stress and non-stress conditions. In this study| we try to evaluate N fertiliser effects on contents of carbohydrate and N dynamics| dry matter accumulation in shoot| yield under post-anthesis waterlogging. Waterlogging after anthesis significantly reduced grain yield due to decrease in thousand-kernel-weight and in grain number per spike. High N fertiliser application aggravated grain yield loss due to post-anthesis waterlogging. These yield losses were related to the decreases in dry matter accumulation| redistribution of stored photosynthate to the grain| and the conversion capacity from carbohydrate to starch in grain. The decrease in dry matter accumulation could be attributed to the reduced activities of Pn (photosynthesis) and SPS (sucrose phosphate synthase) in the flag leaf| while the low capacity in starch synthesis could be explained by the reduced activities of sucrose synthase (SS) and soluble starch synthase (SSS) in grain. Total N uptake in shoot was also reduced| which could contribute to the losses in biomass and yield by waterlogging. The decrease in Pn was inconsistent with the increase in N content in the flag leaf at high N fertiliser application under post-anthesis waterlogging. 1048,2008,3,2,Nitrogen flow and use efficiency in production and utilization of wheat| rice| and maize in China,China has long been the world's most populous nation and faced the double challenge of ensuring its food security without causing catastrophic damage to the environment. Since the early 1960s| Chinese agricultural development has been premised on large domestic increases in nitrogen (N) fertilizer production and consumption. However| current utilization of fertilizer is far beyond optimum| with the fate of excess N largely unknown. Here| we report on N flows| losses| and use efficiency in the production and utilization of three major grain crops using data from 2004. We also use a scenario analysis to explore strategies for improving N use efficiency. Our calculations show that N use efficiency in food production and utilization is much lower than previously published estimates. Mean N surpluses of crop fields were 144 kg/ha for wheat| 184 kg/ha for rice| and 120 kg/ha for maize. We estimate that between 50% and 85% of N harvested as grain is lost for utilization by humans and animals. Fertilizer N use efficiency (FNUE) values in crop-animal system for wheat| rice| and maize were 13.4%| 11.3%| and 3.7%| respectively. This means 7.5| 8.9 and 27.1 kg of N fertilizer were required to produce I kg of N in food via fertilization for these three grains. Major room exists for improving the efficiency of N flow in Chinese crop systems. Our scenario analyses shows that increases in N use efficiency of fertilizer applied to cropland (RE)| decreasing ratios of grain N headed to plant food processing (GLIP)| and increasing efficiency in animal production (ANU) would result in a marked decrease in N loss from these three crops amounting to one million ton of N| which accounted for 6% of total chemical fertilizer input. Improved N management in Chinese food production has major ramifications for global estimations of N use efficiency and environmental pollution by reactive N| particularly nitrous oxide emissions| a major anthropogenic contributor to global climate change. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1184,2008,4,4,Nitrogen transport by rivers of South Asia,The South Asian rivers show a discharge weighted average NO(3)-N of 2 mg/l and average sediment-bound N| that is mostly organic| of 0.2%. The reported global average for the uncontaminated river system is of the order of about 0.028 mg/l (NO(3)-N). Hence| our fresh-water aquatic systems can no longer be considered natural| at least with respect to nitrogen transport. The average is still below the WHO limit of 100 1 mg/ NO(3)-N for drinking water| but there are extreme variations in different rivers (Ganges| Krishna| etc.) and at different locations (Cauvery at Tiruchirapalli 29 mg/l| Ganges at Patna| 140 mg/l| etc.). Sediment-bound N is generally less than 1 %| but values as high as about 3% have been reported for some rivers indicating rapid transfer of soil organic matter to rivers as particulate organic nitrogen. While the nitrogen. story for various groundwater regions is well understood as representing fertilizer run-off| the riverine N is yet to be studied in detail; the link between river processes and global climate change would warrant urgent study of the river system of South Asia that carries an annual. water flux of about 2100 km(3) (about 6% of global run-off) and an annual sediment flux or over one billion tons (about 10% of global flux). Rough calculations of available data indicate that the total N flux from rivers to oceans in South Asia is likely to be several factors higher than that indicated by some representative contaminated rivers of the world. 8992,2008,2,4,Nitrous oxide emissions from tropical hydroelectric reservoirs,[1] We report original data on nitrous oxide (N(2)O) fluxes from two tropical reservoirs| their rivers below the dam| and from natural aquatic ecosystems and rainforest soils in French Guiana and Panama. We also review published N(2)O fluxes from other tropical reservoirs and natural environments. We show that: ( 1) N2O emissions from tropical reservoirs occur mainly at the reservoir surface| fluxes downstream of dams being minor; ( 2) Because pre-flooding natural N(2)O fluxes are significant| the net N(2)O emissions from reservoirs are less than similar to 50 - 70% of gross N(2)O emissions; ( 3) the contribution of N(2)O to the global warming potential of emissions from reservoirs could be significant for gross emissions| but less than 10% for net emissions| disregarding N(2)O degassing emissions. 8629,2008,3,4,Nondestructive system for analyzing carbon in the soil,Carbon is an essential component of life and| in its organic form| plays a pivotal role in the soil's fertility| productivity| and water retention. It is an integral part of the atmospheric-terrestrial C exchange cycle mediated via photosynthesis; furthermore| it emerged recently as a new trading commodity| i.e.| "carbon credits." When carefully manipulated| C sequestration by the soil could balance and mitigate anthropogenic CO(2) emissions into the atmosphere char are believed to contribute global warming. The pressing need for assessing the soil's C stocks at local| regional| and global scales| now in the forefront of much research| is considerably hindered by the problems besetting dry-combustion chemical analyses| even with state-of-the-art procedures. To overcome these issues| we developed a new method based on gamma-ray spectroscopy induced by inelastic neutron scattering (INS). The INS method is all in situ| nondestructive| multielemental technique that can be used in stationary or continous-scanning modes of operation. The results from data acquired from all investigated soil mass of a few hundred kilograms to all approximate depth of 30 cm are reported immediately Our initial experiments have demonstrated the feasibility Of Our proposed approach; we obtained a linear response with C concentration and a detection limit between 0.5 and 1% C by weight. 8679,2008,4,4,Normalization of wood density in biomass estimates of Amazon forests,Wood density is an important variable in estimates of biomass and carbon flux in tropical regions. However| the Amazon region lacks large-scale wood-density datasets that employ a sampling methodology adequate for use in estimates of biomass and carbon emissions. Normalization of the available datasets is needed to avoid bias in estimates that combine previous studies of wood density that used wood sampling at diverse positions in the bole or with various methods of density determination. This paper examines the question of whether regressions for radial variation and for variation in wood density along the bole| both developed in dense forest in central Amazonia (CA)| are suitable for the open forests in southern Amazonia (SA) that are currently the target of most of Amazonia's deforestation activity. The wood density of the heartwood and density of full disks or slices (bark| sapwood and heartwood) in each tree were measured to assess the radial variation. For variation along the length of the bole| wood densities at breast height and at the top of the bole were used. Moisture content of the bole was measured in SA and compared with values reported by studies from CA in similar dense forest. Comparing regressions that predict full-disk density from heartwood density| the pattern of radial variation differs slightly and significantly between the two forest types (ANCOVA p = 0.006); the slopes have similar values but the intercepts differ. Variation along the bole in the two forest types does not differ significantly (p = 0.144)| so the CA model for predicting mean bole density from the density of a slice at breast height gives an unbiased estimate of the mean bole density when applied to SA trees. In SA the mean moisture content of the bole was 0.416 ( +/- 0.068 S.D.; n = 223 trees). Moisture content of the bole had a strong inverse relationship with basic wood density (r = -0.77)| which explains the lower moisture content in the trees in CA relative to SA. A much weaker inverse relationship was found between moisture content and green wood density (r = -0.292). The relationship between wood basic density and green ('fresh') density presented in this study provides an alternative means of obtaining basic wood density directly in the field when oven drying of samples is not possible. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8939,2008,2,4,North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change,Decadal fluctuations in salinity| nutrients| chlorophyll| a variety of zooplankton taxa| and fish stocks in the Northeast Pacific are often poorly correlated with the most widely-used index of large- scale climate variability in the region - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We define a new pattern of climate change| the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and show that its variability is significantly correlated with previously unexplained fluctuations of salinity| nutrients and chlorophyll. Fluctuations in the NPGO are driven by regional and basin-scale variations in wind-driven upwelling and horizontal advection - the fundamental processes controlling salinity and nutrient concentrations. Nutrient fluctuations drive concomitant changes in phytoplankton concentrations| and may force similar variability in higher trophic levels. The NPGO thus provides a strong indicator of fluctuations in the mechanisms driving planktonic ecosystem dynamics. The NPGO pattern extends beyond the North Pacific and is part of a global-scale mode of climate variability that is evident in global sea level trends and sea surface temperature. Therefore the amplification of the NPGO variance found in observations and in global warming simulations implies that the NPGO may play an increasingly important role in forcing global-scale decadal changes in marine ecosystems. 1304,2008,2,4,Norwegian mountain glaciers in the past| present and future,Documentation of glacier changes is a key element for reconstruction of past climate variability and early detection of global climate change. In this paper| records of Holocene glacier variations in different regions in Norway have been synthesised. During the period from approximately 8000 to 4000 cal. yr BP| most glaciers in Norway were completely melted away at least once due to high summer temperatures and/or reduced winter precipitation. Lichenometrically and historically dated moraines at Jostedalsbreen| in Jotunheimen| at Hardangerjokulen| and at Folgefonna were used to extend records of glacier length variations back to their maximum position during the `Little Ice Age'. The timing of the maximum `Little Ice Age' glacial advance in different parts of southern Norway varied considerably| ranging from the early 18th century to the late 19th century. Cumulative glacier length variations of glaciers in southern Norway show an overall retreat from similar to AD 1750 to the 1930s-40s. Thereafter| most Norwegian glaciers retreated significantly. Short maritime outlet glaciers with a short response time (< 10-15 yr) started to advance in the mid-1950s| whereas long outlet glaciers with longer frontal time lag (> 15-20 yr) continued their retreat to the 1980s. In the 1990s| however| several of the maritime glaciers started to advance as a response to higher winter accumulation during the first part of the 1990s. Since 2000 most of the observed glaciers have retreated remarkably fast (annual frontal retreat > 100 m) mainly due to high summer temperatures. The last glacier inventory in Norway published in 1988 shows that there were 1627 glaciers covering a total area of 2609 km(2) with an estimated volume of 164 km(3). Modern climate-glacier relationships from mass balance data in Scandinavia have been used to present possible effects on the Norwegian glaciers of climate scenarios between 1961-1990 and 2070-2100 presented by the 'RegClim' project. This long-term weather 'forecast' for western Norway indicates a rise in the summer temperature of 2.3 degrees C and an increase in the winter precipitation of 16% by the end of the 21st century. This climate scenario may| if it occurs| cause the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) to rise 260 +/- 50 m. As a result| about 98% of the Norwegian glaciers are likely to disappear and the glacier area may be reduced similar to 34% by AD 2100. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 9154,2008,2,4,Note: The role of seasonality and climatic factors in shaping the community composition of Mediterranean butterflies,Although many Studies indicate a relation between global warming and variation in spatial and temporal butterfly distribution| detailed studies are lacking on the importance of local climatic factors on butterfly community composition. We Studied the relation between climatic factors and seasonality on butterfly community cornposition in a Mediterranean climate-type region. The butterfly diversity measures were mainly affected by maximum daily radiation| minimum daily relative humidity| and temperature variables. We suggest extending butterfly monitoring at Long Term Ecological Research stations in Israel| which will allow separating the effect of climatic changes and/or change in local factors on butterfly community composition. 9205,2008,2,3,Novel microcosm system for investigating the effects of elevated carbon dioxide and temperature on intertidal organisms,In addition to the predicted rise in temperature| a recognised consequence of increased atmospheric CO2 is ocean acidification. The response of marine organisms to the stresses associated with acidification is still not understood| and a number of recent experiments have addressed this problem. The starting point for many of these studies has been the development of a system by which seawater pH can be altered and then maintained. The current paper presents details of a temperature- and pH-controlled microcosm system| which enables the establishment of a tidal regime| for the experimental investigation of intertidal organisms. Two climate scenarios were simulated to evaluate the system's precision and accuracy; Year 2008 ('low' [CO2]: 380 ppm and 14 degrees C) conditions and Year 2100 ('high' [CO2]) conditions (based on the IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-2007 A2 scenario| 'high' [CO2]: 1250 ppm and 2.0 to 5.4 degrees C warming). The temperature and seawater carbonate chemistry were reliably maintained for 30 d during which time newly settled barnacle cyprids were allowed to metamorphose into juveniles| then grow and develop. The pH and [CO2] had 95% confidence intervals of 0.03 units and 17 ppm| respectively| under low [CO2] conditions| and of 0.02 units and 43 ppm| respectively| under high [CO2] conditions. The tidal regime is fully adjustable| and on this occasion was set to a 6 h cycle. These microcosms have proved ideal for studying benthic organisms from a variety of near-surface environments and at different stages of their life-cycle. 1101,2008,4,4,Number of soil profiles needed to give a reliable overall estimate of soil organic carbon storage using profile carbon density data,Soil profile data are the basis for estimating soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and any changes in SOC storage| which are of great significance in terms of global climate change. Estimates based on various profile data have been made for SOC storage in China. Modeling studies have given contrasting results on changes in SOC storage in Chinese croplands. A certain number of measured soil profile data are needed to validate the modeled results. In the present study| we examined the relationships between sample size| population variance and detection limit using the central limit theorem and the statistical properties of the normal distribution. Based on the profile dataset from the Second National Soil Survey in China| we calculated that to derive a reliable estimate of the overall mean SOC density for all the soils of China| a sample size of 4|000 soil profiles is needed. In this case| a reliable estimate is defined as having a 95% confidence interval and allowing a +/- 5% detection limit of SOC. The necessary sample size for cropland soils is 1|250. Our results indicate that approximately 100 samples only are needed to validate a modeled SOC loss of 20-30% in cropland soils in China. By aggregating the soil profiles in the dataset into soil orders and calculating the variance of each soil order| we show that the sample sizes in the dataset are insufficient to give reliable estimates on the carbon densities of most soil orders; thus| we conclude that there is considerable uncertainty in the SOC distribution maps resulting from the Second National Soil Survey. 9163,2008,3,4,Numerical simulation of supercritical CO2 injection into subsurface rock masses,Carbon dioxide (CO2) is considered to be one of the greenhouse gases that may contribute most to global warming on the earth. Disposal of CO2 from stationary sources into subsurface structures has been suggested as a possible means for reducing CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. However| much remains to be done in the issues regarding the safety and reliability of CO2 geological sequestration. In this study| we have developed a simulation code by using the mathematical model of two phase flow in porous media to analyze the flow dynamics in the subsurface. The equation of state for CO2 covering the fluid region from the triple point to the supercritical region is employed to model the states of CO2 gas| liquid and supercritical state. The correct understanding of the CO2 state under the geological formation condition is an important factor to predict the injection pressure and CO2 fluid permeation because the fluid density has a great effect on the injection behavior. The numerical simulation was implemented under several geological conditions including gas| liquid and supercritical states to examine the optimal injection condition. Comparing the numerical results obtained using the equation of state for CO2 with those obtained using the ideal gas equation| it has been shown that the difference in the injection pressure appears to be significant near the condition of the critical point of CO2 and the phase equilibrium curves between the gas and liquid states. The numerical simulation has been implemented to examine the effect of the reservoir condition on the injection behavior. The injection pressure is decreased at the lower reservoir temperature and higher hydrostatic pressure condition. The CO2 permeation is also strongly affected by the reservoir condition| and the spatial CO2 saturation becomes higher with increasing reservoir temperature. It has been demonstrated that the simulation code developed in this study may be useful to provide knowledge required to select the reservoir condition for CO2 geological sequestration. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1327,2008,4,4,Observations and modeling of the ice-ocean conditions in the coastal Chukchi and Beaufort Seas,The Chukchi and Beaufort Seas include several important hydrological features: inflow of the Pacific water| Alaska coast current (ACC)| the seasonal to perennial sea ice cover| and landfast ice along the Alaskan coast. The dynamics of this Coupled ice-ocean system is important for both regional scale oceanography and large-scale global climate change research. A number of moorings were deployed in the area by JAMSTEC since 1992| and the data revealed highly variable characteristics of the hydrological environment. A regional high-resolution coupled ice-ocean model of the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas was established to simulate the ice-ocean environment and unique seasonal landfast ice in the coastal Beaufort Sea. The model results reproduced the Beaufort gyre and the ACC. The depth-averaged annual mean ocean Currents along the Beaufort Sea coast and shelf break compared well with data from four moored ADCPs| but the simulated velocity had smaller standard deviations| which indicate small-scale eddies were frequent in the region. The model results captured the seasonal variations Of sea ice area as compared with remote sensing data| and the simulated sea ice velocity showed an almost stationary area along the Beaufort Sea coast that was similar to the observed landfast ice extent. It is the combined effects of the weak oceanic current near the coast| a prevailing wind with an onshore component| the opposite direction of the ocean Current| and the blocking by the coastline that make the Beaufort Sea coastal areas prone to the formation of landfast ice. 1143,2008,4,4,Observations of Antarctic precipitable water vapor and its response to the solar activity based on GPS sensing,Predicting global climate change is a great challenge and must be based on a thorough Understanding of how the climate system components behave. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) is one of the key components in determining and predicting the global climate system| It is well known that the local surface temperature and pressure have a direct influence on the production of PWV. However| the influence of solar activity on atmospheric dynamics and their physical mechanisms is still all open debate| where past Studies are focused at mid-latitude regions. A new method of determining and quantifying the solar influence PWV based on GPS observations to correlate the GPS PWV and total electron content TEC variations is proposed. Observed data from Scott Base (SBA) and McMurdo (MCM) stations from 2003 to 2005 have been used to study the response of PWV to solar activity. In the analysis| the effects of local conditions (wind speed and relative humidity) on the distribution of PWV are investigated. Results show significant correlation between PWV and solar activity for four geomagnetic storms| with correlation coefficients of 0.74| 0.77| 0.64 and 0.69| which are all significant at the 95% confidence level. There was no significant correlation between TEC and PWV changes during the absence of storms. On a monthly analysis| a strong relationship exists between PWV and TEC during storm-affected days| with correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.89 (99% confidence level) for SBA and MCM respectively. These indicate a statistically significant seasonal signal in the Antarctic region| which is very active (higher) during the summer and inactive (lower) for the winter periods. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9067,2008,2,2,Observed climate change constrains the likelihood of extreme future global warming,If cooling due to present-day levels of atmospheric aerosol is suppressing global temperatures| future reductions in aerosols emissions would allow the full greenhouse gas induced warming to be realised. The many uncertainties in aerosol physics and chemistry mean that a large range of present-day aerosol cooling is possible which could imply a large climate sensitivity| extremely large future warming and the increased risk of catastrophic consequences. Despite large uncertainties in aerosol physics and chemistry| observed spatial and temporal patterns of past temperature change allow quantitative assessment of the strength of present-day aerosol cooling. Such observational constraints provide a probabilistic framework in which to assess the likelihood of extremely large warming if a very large suppression of global warming by aerosols were to be removed. The likelihoods of future warming extents are calculated assuming four scenarios of future anthropogenic emissions. While such results are still subject to uncertainty| they indicate that future warming by the end of the 21st century is likely to be between the extremes implied by very strong or very weak present-day aerosol cooling. It is very likely that present-day aerosol cooling is suppressing a major portion of current greenhouse warming. 1165,2008,4,4,Observing upper troposphere-lower stratosphere climate with radio occultation data from the CHAMP satellite,High quality observations of the atmosphere are particularly required for monitoring global climate change. Radio occultation (RO) data| using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals| are well suited for this challenge. The special climate utility of RO data arises from their long-term stability due to their self-calibrated nature. The German research satellite CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload for geoscientific research (CHAMP) continuously records RO profiles since August 2001 providing the first opportunity to create RO based climatologies for a multi-year period of more than 5 years. A period of missing CHAMP data from July 3| 2006 to August 8| 2006 can be bridged with RO data from the GRACE satellite (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). We have built seasonal and zonal mean climatologies of atmospheric (dry) temperature| microwave refractivity| geopotential height and pressure with 10 degrees latitudinal resolution. We show representative results with focus on dry temperatures and compare them with analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Although we have available only about 150 CHAMP profiles per day (compared to millions of data entering the ECMWF analyses) the overall agreement between 8 and 30 km altitude is in general very good with systematic differences < 0.5 K in most parts of the domain. Pronounced systematic differences (exceeding 2 K) in the tropical tropopause region and above Antarctica in southern winter can almost entirely be attributed to errors in the ECMWF analyses. Errors resulting from uneven sampling in space and time are a potential error source for single-satellite climatologies. The average CHAMP sampling error for seasonal zonal means is < 0.2 K| higher values occur in restricted regions and time intervals which can be clearly identified by the sampling error estimation approach we introduced (which is based on ECMWF analysis fields). The total error of this new type of temperature climatologies is estimated to be < 0.5 K below 30 km. The recently launched Taiwan/U.S. FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC constellation of 6 RO satellites started to provide thousands of RO profiles per day| but already now the single-satellite CHAMP RO climatologies improve upon modern operational climatologies in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere and can act as absolute reference climatologies for validation of more bias-sensitive climate datasets and models. 8479,2008,2,2,Ocean acidification causes bleaching and productivity loss in coral reef builders,Ocean acidification represents a key threat to coral reefs by reducing the calcification rate of framework builders. In addition| acidification is likely to affect the relationship between corals and their symbiotic dinoflagellates and the productivity of this association. However| little is known about how acidification impacts on the physiology of reef builders and how acidification interacts with warming. Here| we report on an 8-week study that compared bleaching| productivity| and calcification responses of crustose coralline algae (CCA) and branching (Acropora) and massive (Porites) coral species in response to acidification and warming. Using a 30-tank experimental system| we manipulated CO2 levels to simulate doubling and three- to fourfold increases [intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projection categories IV and VI] relative to present-day levels under cool and warm scenarios. Results indicated that high CO2 is a bleaching agent for corals and CCA under high irradiance| acting synergistically with warming to lower thermal bleaching thresholds. We propose that CO2. induces bleaching via its impact on photoprotective mechanisms of the photosystems. Overall| acidification impacted more strongly on bleaching and productivity than on calcification. Interestingly| the intermediate| warm CO2 scenario led to a 30% increase in productivity in Acropora| whereas high CO2 lead to zero productivity in both corals. CCA were most sensitive to acidification| with high CO2 leading to negative productivity and high rates of net dissolution. Our findings suggest that sensitive reef-building species such as CCA may be pushed beyond their thresholds for growth and survival within the next few decades whereas corals will show delayed and mixed responses. 9115,2008,2,4,Ocean circulation in a warming climate,Climate models predict that the ocean's circulation will weaken in response to global warming| but the warming at the end of the last ice age suggests a different outcome. 9187,2008,3,3,Ocean fertilization and other climate change mitigation strategies: an overview,In order to evaluate ocean fertilization in the larger context of other proposed strategies for reducing the threat of the global warming| a wide range of different climate change mitigation approaches are compared in terms of their long-term potential| stage of development| relative costs and potential risks| as well as public acceptance. This broad comparative analysis is carried out for the following climate change mitigation strategies: supply-side and end-use efficiency improvements| terrestrial and geological carbon sequestration| CO2 ocean disposal and iron fertilization| nuclear power| and renewable energy generation from biomass| passive solar| solar thermal| photovoltaics| hydroelectric and wind. In addition| because of the inherent problems of conducting an objective comparative cost-benefit analysis| 2 non-technological solutions to global warming are also discussed: curbing population growth and transitioning to a steady-state economy. 9054,2008,2,4,Ocean's least productive waters are expanding,A 9-year time series of SeaWiFS remotely-sensed ocean color data is used to examine temporal trends in the ocean's most oligotrophic waters| those with surface chlorophyll not exceeding 0.07 mg chl/m(3). In the North and South Pacific| North and South Atlantic| outside the equatorial zone| the areas of low surface chlorophyll waters have expanded at average annual rates from 0.8 to 4.3%/yr and replaced about 0.8 million km(2)/yr of higher surface chlorophyll habitat with low surface chlorophyll water. It is estimated that the low surface chlorophyll areas in these oceans combined have expanded by 6.6 million km(2) or by about 15.0% from 1998 through 2006. In both hemispheres| evidence shows a more rapid expansion of the low surface chlorophyll waters during the winter. The North Atlantic| which has the smallest oligotrophic gyre is expanding most rapidly| both annually at 4.3%/yr and seasonally| in the first quarter at 8.5%/yr. Mean sea surface temperature in each of these 4 subtropical gyres also increased over the 9-year period. The expansion of the low chlorophyll waters is consistent with global warming scenarios based on increased vertical stratification in the mid-latitudes| but the rates of expansion we observe already greatly exceed recent model predictions. 1130,2008,3,3,Olympic Games promote the reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases in Beijing,Global climate change is one of the most serious global environmental problems faced by humankind at present. Serious attention should be paid and precautions should be taken before disasters occur. The amount of CO(2) emissions in China has increased during the past few years and the Chinese government and people have attached great importance to this phenomenon and treated it seriously. With the instruction of scientific development viewpoint| Beijing has made significant progress in emissions reduction through technological innovation| industrial structure adjustment| promoting energy efficiency and utilization of renewable energy| and absorption of CO(2) using forest and wetland| since bidding for Olympic Games. At the same time| energy conservation and emissions reduction measures taken in the construction of Beijing Olympic stadiums just incarnate the Beijing Green Olympics. Using the Beijing Olympic Games as a turning-point| adopting energy conservation and emissions reduction measures| Beijing will make contributions to reduction of greenhouse gases and slowing down climate changes and Beijing Olympic Games will leave behind an inheritance for future generations to enjoy. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8601,2008,2,1,On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead,The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4 degrees C (1.4 degrees C to 4.3 degrees C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4 degrees C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4 degrees C to 4.3 degrees C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1 degrees C to 3 degrees C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice| Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers| and the Greenland Ice Sheet. IPCC models suggest that approximate to 25% (0.6 degrees C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now. About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6 degrees C will unfold during the 21st century| determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHIGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly| even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming| but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4 degrees C. 8897,2008,2,2,On the additivity of climate response to anthropogenic aerosols and CO(2)| and the enhancement of future global warming by carbonaceous aerosols,Climate responses to aerosol forcing at present-day and doubled CO(2)-levels are studied based on equilibrium simulations with the CCM-Oslo atmospheric GCM coupled to a slab ocean. Aerosols interact on-line with meteorology through life-cycling of sulphate and black carbon (BC)| and tables for aerosol optics and CCN activation. Anthropogenic aerosols counteract the warming by CO(2) through a negative radiative forcing dominated by the indirect effect. Anthropogenic aerosols reduce precipitation by 4%| while CO(2) doubling gives a 5% increase| mainly through enhanced convective activity| including a narrower ITCZ. Globally| the aerosol cooling is insensitive to CO(2)| and the effects of CO(2) doubling are insensitive to aerosols. Hence| global climate responses to these sources of forcing are almost additive| although sulphate and BC burdens are slightly increased due to reduced stratiform precipitation over major anthropogenic source regions and a modified ITCZ. Regionally| positive cloud feedbacks give up to 5 K stronger aerosol cooling at present-day CO(2) than after CO(2) doubling. Aerosol emissions projected for year-2100 (SRES A2) strongly increase BC and change the sign of the direct effect. This results in a 0.3 K warming and 0.1% increase in precipitation compared to the year 2000| thus enhancing the global warming by greenhouse gases. 9055,2008,2,2,On the causal link between carbon dioxide and air pollution mortality,Greenhouse gases and particle soot have been linked to enhanced sea-level| snowmelt| disease| heat stress| severe weather| and ocean acidification| but the effect of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) on air pollution mortality has not been examined or quantified. Here| it is shown that increased water vapor and temperatures from higher CO(2) separately increase ozone more with higher ozone; thus| global warming may exacerbate ozone the most in already-polluted areas. A high-resolution global-regional model then found that CO2 may increase U. S. annual air pollution deaths by about 1000 (350-1800) and cancers by 20-30 per 1 K rise in CO(2)-induced temperature. About 40% of the additional deaths may be due to ozone and the rest| to particles| which increase due to CO(2)-enhanced stability| humidity| and biogenic particle mass. An extrapolation by population could render 21|600 (7400-39|000) excess CO(2)-caused annual pollution deaths worldwide| more than those from CO(2)-enhanced storminess. 8962,2008,2,2,On the global warming problem due to carbon dioxide,The subject of global warming due to the increased use of fossil fuels is analyzed using a modification of the predator prey equations. The results of the calculation indicate that both the fossil fuels and civilization will both become extinct as tinge increases. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8534,2008,2,4,On the sensitivity of cloud-to-ground lightning activity to surface air temperature changes at different timescales in Sao Paulo| Brazil,This paper presents a study about the sensitivity of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning activity to changes in surface air temperature at daily| monthly| yearly| and decadal timescales in the city of Sao Paulo (Brazil). Lightning data collected in the city by the Brazilian Lightning Detection Network (BrasilDat) from 1999 to 2006 and thunderstorm day data obtained from 1951 to 2006 were analyzed and compared with surface air temperature data. The lightning activity increases significantly with increasing temperature| with a sensitivity of approximately 40% per 1 degrees C for daily and monthly timescales and approximately 30% per 1 degrees C for decadal timescale. For the yearly timescale suggests that the lightning sensitivity to changes in surface air temperature decreases for larger timescales| in agreement with what is expected on the basis of convective adjustment. The decadal lightning sensitivity found in this study is in reasonable agreement with the increase in the global lightning activity estimated by most climate models. The study is the first to investigate in detail this relationship in a large urban area inside the tropics and should contribute to the effort to understand the impact of the global warming on lightning activity. 8584,2008,2,4,One century of vegetation change on Isla Persa| a nunatak in the Bernina massif in the Swiss Alps,Question: How did the vascular plant species composition of a nunatak in the alpine vegetation belt change over a time span of 100 years? Location: A 5.6-ha nunatak| Isla Persa in the Swiss Alps| that remained ice-free during the last maximum glacier advance in the 1850s and is today partly covered with climactic alpine grassland and dwarf heath shrubs. Methods: Floristic inventories in 1906| 1927| 1972| 1995| 2003 and 2004 and a comparative analysis of the species composition over the period 1906-2004. Results: 31 species that were not recorded in the first inventory were found in the following surveys. However| among them only six were common by 2004. Generally| the new species prefer warmer conditions than those previously present and most newcomers are associated with montane or sub-alpine grasslands and woodlands. In particular| the observed increase of Vaccinium myrtillus and the arrival of shrub and tree species further substantiate a trend towards vegetation composition of the lower altitudinal belt. Ferns represented 26% of the newcomers| probably due to the high dispersal ability of their lightweight spores. The observed species enrichment was globally small compared to previously inventoried summits. Conclusion: Floristic change strongly suggests warmer climatic conditions as the main factor contributing to species compositional change. The relative stability of species richness may be explained by several factors: the isolation of the nunatak and the difficulties for plants to reach the site| the colder local climate| a limited available species pool and interactions of established alpine plants with newly immigrating taxa. Supplementary data collected at a similar altitude would be necessary to better understand the influence of climate change on alpine grasslands. 8631,2008,3,3,OPPORTUNITIES AND BARRIERS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BIOGAS TECHNOLOGIES IN ROMANIA,The development of technologies for waste treatment| simultaneously with minimizing greenhouse gas emissions| has become a matter of great concern at global level. Biogas systems can help in the fight against global warming by avoiding to escape methane from organic waste| into the atmosphere. Biogas technology is of great benefit to the end-users and the environment by energy| compost and nutrient recovery. Romania is a country with a huge biomass potential. Implementing of biogas technology could be a proper solution for waste treatment and producing of electricity from renewable energy sources| as stipulated in EU and national legislation. This paper presents an overview on the progress of biogas technologies in Romania since 1980s and the main obstacles that have slow down the development of this technology in the context of the major political and economical changes registered in Romanian industry after 1990. There are mentioned the main benefits which biogas plants could bring to the environment and also some common problems with biogas plants which have been noticed in the developed countries in this field. 1138,2008,2,4,Opposing plant community responses to warming with and without herbivores,If controls over primary productivity and plant community composition are mainly environmental| as opposed to biological| then global change may result in large-scale alterations in ecosystem structure and function. This view appears to be favored among investigations of plant biomass and community responses to experimental and observed warming. in far northern and arctic ecosystems| such studies predict increasing dominance of woody shrubs with future warming and emphasize the carbon (C)-sequestration potential and consequent atmospheric feedback potential of such responses. In contrast to previous studies| we incorporated natural herbivory by muskoxen and caribou into a 5-year experimental investigation of arctic plant community response to warming. In accordance with other studies| warming increased total community biomass by promoting growth of deciduous shrubs (dwarf birch and gray willow). However| muskoxen and caribou reduced total community biomass response| and responses of birch and willow| to warming by 19%| 46%| and 11 %| respectively. Furthermore| under warming alone| the plant community shifted after 5 years away from graminoid-dominated toward dwarf birch-dominated. In contrast| where herbivores grazed| plant community composition on warmed plots did not differ from that on ambient plots after 5 years. These results highlight the potentially important and overlooked influences of vertebrate herbivores on plant community response to warming and emphasize that conservation and management of large herbivores may be an important component of mitigating ecosystem response to climate change. 8979,2008,3,4,Optimal distribution voltage control and coordination with distributed generation,In recent years| distributed generation| as clean natural energy generation and cogeneration system of high thermal efficiency| has increased due to the problems of global warming and exhaustion of fossil fuels. Many of the distributed generations are set up in the vicinity of the customer| with the advantage that this decreases transmission losses. However| output power generated from natural energy| such as wind power| photovoltaics| etc.| which is distributed generation| is influenced by meteorological conditions. Therefore| when the distributed generation increases by conventional control techniques| it is expected that the voltage change of each node becomes a problem. Proposed in this paper is the optimal control of distribution voltage with coordination of distributed installations| such as the load ratio control transformer| step voltage regulator (SVR)| shunt capacitor| shunt reactor| and static var compensator. In this research| SVR is assumed to be a model with tap changing where the signal is received from a central control unit. Moreover| the communication infrastructure in the supply of a distribution system is assumed to be widespread. The genetic algorithm is used to determine the operation of this control. In order to confirm the validity of the proposed method| simulations are carried out for a distribution network model with distributed generation (photovoltaic generation). 8657,2008,3,4,Optimal environmental taxes: Effects of pollution decay and consumer awareness,The effects of nonlinear decay and consumer preferences are analyzed in a setting where optimal extraction of nonrenewable resources is combined with stock externalities. The control is exercised via a corrective tax and the time horizon is divided into two periods: an initial phase with extraction and a terminal phase without extraction. The time horizon with extraction is determined endogenously. The model does not assume separability of the objective function. The purpose here is to demonstrate that relatively simple deviations from the standard assumptions| such as linear decay and no consumer awareness| may have large effects. Sensitivity analyses indicate large differences in the optimal extraction period| the total level of extraction and cumulative emissions depending on the form of the decay function and the presence of consumers' awareness for the environment. 8878,2008,2,4,Optimal intensity and age of management in young Aleppo pine stands for post-fire resilience,During the last few decades| the number of forest fires has been increasing in the Mediterranean Basin due to several factors| among others global warming. Large burned areas are promoting a higher number of naturally regenerated stands which are being poorly managed in general| causing the risk of new wildfires to increase. The most important conifer in dry areas is Pinus halepensis Mill.| a well-adapted species to fire-prone habitats due to its high post-fire seeding capacity. High seedling density in the regenerated areas produces high inter-specific competition| which could induce low cone production related to an insufficient amount of seeds stored in the canopy for post-fire recolonization (immaturity risk); adequate young pine tree stand management is therefore required| mainly based on thinning and pruning. In this study different thinning intensities| with and without pruning| were tested in two Aleppo pine post-fire regenerated areas at 5 and 10 years after a fire event. Significant relationships between seed and cone characteristics to site| treatment| cone age and cone type were found. Also the relatively little importance of Aleppo pine seeds in the soil seed bank was checked. The optimal management strategies for Aleppo pine forests in good site quality 5 years after fire was a final density of 1600 trees ha(-1) (plus pruning after 5 years) or 800 trees ha(-1) as well as a final density of 800 trees ha(-1) plus pruning after 10 years. In poor site quality| the best method was no treatment or thinning to 1600 trees ha(-1) 5 years after fire plus pruning after another 5 years. This management policy can produce benefits in the reproductive processes of Aleppo pine after fire regeneration| as it shortens the juvenile phase and promotes a higher amount of closed cones stored in the canopy| thus increasing the canopy seed bank and reducing the immaturity risk. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9083,2008,3,4,Optimal policy response with control parameter and intercept covariance,Parameter uncertainty and the interaction between the uncertain parameters are important aspects of economic policy. In this work| I develop an analytical one-state variable| one-control variable model with two uncertain parameters ( the control parameter and the intercept) and a nonzero covariance. I characterize the effect of changes in each of the covariance components on the optimal expected control variable. I found that the nature of the optimal policy maker's response depends on the specific changing component of the covariance| the sign of the correlation coefficient and the sign of the optimal expected control variable when the covariance is zero. I obtain the conditions under which the effect of the covariance is considerable. This work complements previous studies by providing a complete set of cases and conditions for an aggressive or cautionary optimal policy maker's response to changes in each covariance component. Finally| the importance of the analytical results is shown for the regulation of a stock pollutant leading to global warming. 8945,2008,3,2,Optimal resource management control for CO(2) emission and reduction of the greenhouse effect,In recent years| the world has witnessed an ever-growing concern towards global warming caused by greenhouse gases| such as carbon dioxide (CO(2)). In order to reduce the emissions Of CO(2) without limiting economic growth| substantial investments should target the development of clean technology and the expansion of forested areas. Considering the limited availability of resources| investments must be used in the most effective way. The present work proposes a method to efficiently manage these resources by applying the optimal control theory to a new mathematical model that describes the dynamics of the atmospheric CO(2). The contributions of this work are twofold: (1) present a model that describes the dynamic relation of CO(2) emission with investment in reforestation and clean technology and (2) present a method to efficiently manage the available resources by casting an optimal control problem. The mathematical model uses ordinary differential equations to relate the production of CO(2) with forest area and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The model parameters are adjusted to fit the actual published data. Given an appropriate performance index| the optimal solution is found by numerically solving the Two-Point Boundary Value Problem (TPBVP) that arises from the application of Pontriagyn's Maximum Principle. The sensitivity of the obtained numerical solution is evaluated with respect to the uncertainties in the model parameters. The main objective of this work is to provide a quantitative tool for the efficient allocation of resources to reduce the greenhouse effect caused CO(2) emissions. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9147,2008,2,4,ORNITHOLOGICAL REPORT 2001-2006 FOR THE CAMARGUE,Ornithological report 2001-2006 for the Camargue. The present ornithological report for the Camargue covers six years (2001-2006). This time-period has been marked by an accelerated global warming (the summer 2003 was particularly extreme). Owing to a constant high observation pressure| 18 new species have been recorded and many rare species have been resighted in that region (Camargue| Crau| Alpilles). Among the species or group of species which are regularly censused| the number of breeding Greater Flamingos Phoenicopterus roseus and that of wintering ducks and coots did not show any significant change. The colonial herons have continued either to increase or to fluctuate at a high level. For example| the Great White Egret Casmerodius albus has definitely settled in the delta and the Squacco Heron Ardeola ralloides has reached a new peak of 505 pairs in 2006. More efficient prospection efforts gave more precise breeding numbers for two species of solitary herons| the Great Bittern Botaurus stellaris and the Little Bittern Ixobrychus minutus. New breeding species such as the Great Cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo| White Stork Ciconia ciconia| Eurasian Spoonbill Platalea leucorodia and Greylag Anser anser increased their numbers as well as the Glossy Ibis Plegadis falcinellus of which 14 pairs has bred in 2006 and the Purple Swamphen Porphyrio porphyrio which was found for the first time breeding in 2006. The breeding species showing the most serious concern are actually the breeding gulls and terns whose figures have dramatically decreased. Without human management| this situation will even become worse in a near future. Further remarkable observations were the first case of wintering Lesser Spotted Eagle Aquila pomarina in 2001/2002| a mixed pair of Black-winged Pratincole Glareola nordmanni x Collared Pratincole G. pratincola in 2001| the settling of the Rook Corvus frugilegus in Arles. 8454,2008,2,4,Outbreak of bluetongue disease (BTD) in Germany and the danger for Europe,In August 2006| die blue tongue virus (BTV-type South Africa serotype 9) was detected for the first time in cattle blood probes in the Netherlands| immediately followed by cases in Belgium and in cattle on German farms| which were situated close to Aachen at the border to those countries. Within less than 2 months the disease spread eastwards crossing the Rhine| southwards to Luxemburg and to Northern France. At the end of the year 2006| nearly 1|000 farms were affected in Germany. Catches on two German cattle farms proved that the ceratopogonid species Culicoides obsoletus was obviously the vector| since many females-fed and unfed ones-were found to be infected with this virus. This sudden outbreak of bluetongue disease (BTD) is surely not a primary result of global wan-ning| but rather an effect of globalization-i.e. the intensive worldwide import and export of animals; but a hot summer| as in 2006| and a warm winter like that of the years 2006/2007 supported the new spread starting again in masses in August 2007 leading to 596 PCR-confirmed cases until then with more than 200|000 animals infected. Thus| new agents coming from elsewhere have only a chance to spread if appropriate vectors are available and the conditions remain favourable during a reasonably long period. Effects of global warming-of course-will support persistence of such outbreaks of diseases due to offering of spreading of imported viruses| bacteria and/or parasites. 1069,2008,2,4,Pacific Salmon in Hot Water: Applying Aerobic Scope Models and Biotelemetry to Predict the Success of Spawning Migrations,Concern over global climate change is widespread| but quantifying relationships between temperature change and animal fitness has been a challenge for scientists. Our approach to this challenge was to study migratory Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.)| fish whose lifetime fitness hinges on a once-in-a-lifetime river migration to natal spawning grounds. Here| we suggest that their thermal optimum for aerobic scope is adaptive for river migration at the population level. We base this suggestion on several lines of evidence. The theoretical line of evidence comes from a direct association between the temperature optimum for aerobic metabolic scope and the temperatures historically experienced by three Fraser River salmon populations during their river migration. This close association was then used to predict that the occurrence of a period of anomalously high river temperatures in 2004 led to a complete collapse of aerobic scope during river migration for a portion of one of the sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations. This prediction was corroborated with empirical data from our biotelemetry studies| which tracked the migration of individual sockeye salmon in the Fraser River and revealed that the success of river migration for the same sockeye population was temperature dependent. Therefore| we suggest that collapse of aerobic scope was an important mechanism to explain the high salmon mortality observed during their migration. Consequently| models based on thermal optima for aerobic scope for ectothermic animals should improve predictions of population fitness under future climate scenarios. 9093,2008,5,4,Palaeohydrological changes and human-impact history over the last millennium recorded at Lake Joux in the Jura Mountains| Switzerland,On the basis of sediment and pollen analyses of a radiocarbon-dated sediment sequence from Lake Joux in the Swiss Jura Mountains (west-central Europe)| this paper presents a high-resolution record of lake-level and vegetation changes for the last millennium. The lake-level record makes it possible to determine that low-stands of the water-table dominated at c. AD 1200-1400| and from 1720 onward| with interruptions by short-lived rise events at c. AD 1340 and 1840. Highstands prevailed at c. AD 1100| and around AD 1450| 1550 and 1700. The comparison of the Joux lake-level record with a solar irradiance record based on cosmogenic nucleides supports the hypothesis of a major solar forcing of climate variations in west-central Europe over the last millennium. In agreement with other palaeohydrological records established in Western Europe and in the central North Atlantic Ocean| the Joux lake-level record suggests that| on a multicentennial scale| the period of the 'Little Ice Age' coincided in the European mid-latitudes with wetter climatic conditions| and probably with an increase in summer precipitation. Variations in the hydrological cycle appear to have been associated with changes in the general atmospheric circulation pattern| probably coupled with variations in oceanic circulation and solar activity. The Joux record also points to changes in water resources expected to result from ongoing global warming. Finally| despite the severe climatic conditions which prevail in the Joux Valley| the human impact history at Lake Joux over the last millennium seems to reflect political choices and economic context more than climatic changes. 8448,2008,5,4,Palaeoproductivity changes and upwelling variability in the Galicia Mud Patch during the last 5000 years: geochemical and microfloral evidence,The Holocene palaeoclimatic history of the Galician continental shelf has been investigated through the analyses of diatom remains| other siliceous compounds| biogenic silica (BSi) and metals content in a multiproxy approach to a gravity core recovered from the Galicia Mud Patch| NW Iberian Peninsula| covering the last 5000 years. Downcore changes in diatom assemblages composition and abundance reflect changes in diatom production related to long-/short-term variations in climate| regional oceanography| upwelling strength and river influx off the coast of NW Spain and Portugal. Palaeoclimatic variability was related to the relative strengths and position of the Azores High and Iceland Low pressure cells. Metals and microflora fluctuations are interpreted as changes in the riverine influence and upwelling intensity paced by oceanographic| atmospheric and climatic changes. Lack of diatoms between 4700-3300 and 1800-1200 cal. yr BP could be linked to early diagenetic processes taking place in the sediment after burial. Biogenic barium (Ba(excess))|metals and diatom assemblages| show a general increase of marine productivity for the last 1200 cal. yr BP. Between 800 and 500 cal. yr BP high production of the microflora is triggered by influx of river-derived nutrients under conditions of SW winds and storms resulting from a NAO negative-like phase. The biosiliceous and geochemical signatures of sediments from the last 500 cal. yr BP indicate conditions of enhanced upwelling and increased phytoplanktonic production associated with the intensification of northerly winds. Upwelling strengthening in this area| attributed to recent global warming| could provoke an increase in phytoplankton biomass with consequent biological| climatological and socioeconomical impacts. The imprint of anthropic activities has been recorded by the increasing Pb/Al ratios for the last 400 cal. yr BP. 8603,2008,5,4,Paleobiogeography of the pectinid bivalve Neithea| and its pattern of step-wise demise in the Albian Northwest Pacific,The pectinid bivalve genus Neithea is one of the most important indicators for understanding the biogeographic relationships between the Tethyan Realm and North Pacific Province during the Cretaceous Period. Changes in temporal species diversity| endemic/widespread species composition| and origination and demise ratios of Neithea at each Cretaceous stage boundary in the Northwest Pacific were analyzed from a biogeographic perspective. Neithea is continuously present in the Northwest Pacific during the Berriasian to late Albian time interval. Species diversity reached its maximum in the late Aptian| being correlated with the global warming phase. Step-wise demise of Neithea in the Northwest Pacific during the Albian is subdivided into three stages: the late Aptian/early Albian| early Albian/middle-late Albian| and late Albian/early Cenomanian. Thereafter| Neithea disappeared in the Northwest Pacific and never reappeared. This pattern is the reverse of the Albian diversification of Neithea in the Mediterranean| and also contrary to the Mid-Cretaceous global warming trend. Demise of Neithea in the Northwest Pacific occurred simultaneously with the step-wise demise of Mesogean taxa (e.g.| rudists) which strongly supports the idea that the Northwest Pacific gradually became independent from the Tethyan Realm during the Albian. It also suggests a long-term deterioration of the faunal interchange between the North Pacific Province and Tethyan Realm throughout the Late Cretaceous. This biogeographic change was possibly caused by Albian "cooling" and changes in oceanic flow/heat transport in the Northwest Pacific. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8887,2008,5,4,Paleoclimatic implications of crayfish-mediated prismatic structures in paleosols of the Paleogene Willwood Formation| Bighorn Basin| Wyoming| USA,Paleosols at Polecat Bench| northern Bighorn Basin| Wyoming| show prismatic structures not previously described in the Paleogene Willwood Formation. Prisms are densely spaced 15-50 mm diameter cylinders with vertical to slightly sinuous paths up to 400 mm long| subangular to rounded vertical faces| and slightly concave to convex tops. Prism exteriors are coated commonly by < 1-mm-thick clay films; exteriors also commonly show knobby and striated surficial morphologies. Prismatic structures are nearly exclusive to thin-bedded (< 1 m thick) compound paleosols composed of red to red-purple sandy mudrock overlying gray to green-gray heterolithic units composed chiefly of fine-grained sandstone. In addition to prismatic structures| these paleosols are characterized by large gray mottles| slickensides| and calcareous rhizocretions which crosscut or more typically follow prism exteriors. The architectural and surficial morphology of the soil prisms suggest strongly that these are pedogenically modified freshwater crayfish burrows of the ichnospecies Camborygma litonomos. At Polecat Bench| an similar to 40 in interval of the Willwood Formation records a transient episode of global warming known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). The PETM interval is characterized by a series of predominantly red| cumulative paleosol profiles and increased soil carbonates. Prismatic soil structures and crayfish burrows are rare or absent in cumulic paleosols typical of the PETM| whereas they are locally abundant in red compound paleosols outside the PETM interval. The changes in paleosol morphology and a sharp decrease in crayfish burrows within the PETM interval suggest significantly improved soil-drainage conditions and lower water tables on the Willwood floodplain during the global warming event. 1086,2008,5,4,PALEOECOLOGY OF EARLY-MIDDLE PERMIAN MARINE COMMUNITIES IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA: RESPONSE TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE LATE PALEOZOIC ICE AGE,Climate change has exerted a major influence on the biosphere in historical times| altering the geographic range of many species and elevating the extinction risk in both marine and terrestrial realms. This study investigates marine community change during the major early Permian climatic transition from the late Paleozoic ice age to a largely ice-free greenhouse climate. Quantitative counts of fossil abundance from 71 field assemblages and 15 collections from the literature| spanning the early and middle Permian (Sakmarian-Capitanian) of the Tasmania| Sydney| and Bowen basins of eastern Australia document substantial changes in the composition of marine communities during Sakmarian-Kungurian postglacial warming. During the last stages of glaciation (Sakmarian)| communities were dominated by the brachiopod Trigonotreta and the bivalve Eurydesma| whereas communities from the later greenhouse climate (Kungurian-Guadalupian) contained abundant productide brachiopods such as Terrakea and Echinalosia. The shift was broadly synchronous at all paleolatitudes within eastern Australia but appears to have occurred first in offshore habitats. Artinskian communities may also have been much more variable than either earlier or later communities. This variability may have been triggered by rapid climate fluctuations| similar to the changes observed in Artinskian tropical terrestrial ecosystems| but it may also stem from sampling a greater number of depositional environments and habitat types. The ultimate fate of the dominant glacial genera differed after they lost dominance| with Eurydesma becoming extinct during climate warming but Trigonotreta persisting at low abundance levels for a much longer time. These results support the theory that climate change most often causes extinctions through indirect paleoecological effects and underscore the important consequences that even gradual| long-term climate change can have in marine ecosystems. 8524,2008,5,3,Paleogene paleosols and changes in pedogenesis during the initial Eocene thermal maximum: Big Bend National Park| Texas| USA,This paper tests the hypothesis that continental chemical weathering increased during the initial Eocene thermal maximum (IETM) by comparing paleosols that formed before and during the event in western Texas. The chemical index of alteration (CIA) was used to investigate the weathering of silicate minerals. Paleosols generated before the IETM have CIA values ranging from 62 to 72| and CIA values during the IETM range from 67 to 82. The CIA values for pre-initial Eocene thermal maximum paleosols indicate moderate weathering conditions| and CIA values during the event indicate moderate to extreme weathering conditions. The clay mineralogy of the paleosols is dominated by smectite| and it is only within paleosols that formed during the IETM that there is a change. There is a notable increase in the amount of kaolinite in one paleosol horizon that is associated with the carbon excursion. In addition| there is an increase in the translocation of clays and iron| and an increase in the leaching of calcite and plagioclase in initial Eocene thermal maximum paleosols. The differences between soils that formed before and during the initial Eocene thermal maximum indicate that chemical weathering did increase during this ancient global warming event. The mechanism responsible for increased weathering is interpreted to be an increase in hydrolysis reactions caused by an increase in humidity and an increase of carbonic acid in the soil due to elevated CO2 levels during the initial Eocene thermal maximum. Documentation of an increase in chemical weathering during the initial Eocene thermal maximum is significant because it may have served as a negative feedback to reduce atmospheric CO2. 8599,2008,2,4,Paraglacial and paraperiglacial landsystems: concepts| temporal scales and spatial distribution,The Pleistocene Earth history has been characterized by major climatic fluctuations. During glacial periods| ice may have covered around 30 per cent of the Earth surface compared to approximately 10 per cent nowadays. With global change| polar environments and other montainous glacial environments of the world are presently undergoing the most important changes since the end of the Last Glacial Maximum and are experiencing paraglacial and paraperiglacial geomorphological readjustments. Paraglacial and paraperiglacial landsystems consist of several subsystems including gravitational| fluvial| coastal| aeolian and lacustrine environments. Paraglacial and paraperiglacial landsystems can be analysed as open and complex landsystems characterized by energy| water and sediment fluxes and exchange with surrounding environments| especially with glacial and periglacial landsystems as inputs. Those cascading landsystems are likely to react to climate change because they rely on an ice-cold water stock (glacier and permafrost) that developed during a previous cold sequence (glaciation). The response of paraglacial and paraperiglacial systems to climatic forcing takes place over a long time span ranging from an immediate reaction to several millennia. The spatial limits of paraglacial and paraperiglacial landsystems are inherently dependant on the time scale over which the system is analyzed. During the Pleistocene| glaciations widely affected the high latitudes and the high altitudes of the Earth and were followed by inherited paraglacial sequences. Glacier forelands in Arctic and alpine areas experience paraglacial processes with the present warming. The expected global warming for the twenty-first century will result in significant impacts on present glacier areas in mountains and could result in the appearance of new areas for paraglacial dynamics. In permafrost terrain| landscapes underwent a similar paraperiglacial geomorphological adjustment in mountainous| continental and coastal areas| with permafrost thaw-degradation and thermokarst processes. 8532,2008,2,4,Past and Present Breeding Distribution of the Alpine Chough (Pyrrhocorax graculus) in Western Stara Planina and Western Predbalkan Mts. (Bulgaria),The paper reviews all published and original data on the past and present breeding distribution of the Alpine Chough (Pyrrhocorax graculus) in NW Bulgaria. Between 1950 and 1981| 77 breeding sites were known. At that time the colonies often consisted of tens of breeding pairs. Vertical distribution started at ca. 300 in a.s.l. (vill. Dolno Ozirovo) and reached ca. 2000 in [summits of Kopren (1964 m) and Tri Chouki (1938 m)]. Later| between 1982 and 1995| Alpine Choughs were found to breed in only 24 sites (decline with 53 sites). The species has been virtually extinct from large breeding areas known in the past. The overall number of birds in the studied areas followed reduction of the species range: 3 colonies with 11-15 pairs| 8 colonies with 6-10 pairs| 3 colonies with 3-5 pairs and 10 sites with 1-2 breeding pairs. Between 1996 and 2006| we proved its breeding in 14 sites only. In this period| the species did not breed in the karstic hills "glami" in the region of Belogradchik town and it became rare in Ponor and Vrachanski Balkan Mts. The total number of breeding pairs declined significantly. We established 7 sites with 1-2 pairs| 5 sites with 3-5 pairs| 2 sites with 6-10 pairs. There were no longer sites with more than 10 breeding pairs. We presume that the major reason for the population decline is the habitat change within the species' main feeding areas. Former open grasslands hold by the extensive cattle breeding has grown up with scrubby vegetation. Other possible reasons are the global warming at a local scale and accumulation of pesticides and heavy metals in the mountain soils. Animal predation| heavy rains| shooting and human disturbance are pointed as possible complementary reasons for the decline. 1149,2008,2,4,Pathogens of domestic and free-ranging ungulates: global climate change in temperate to boreal latitudes across North America,In North America broad-based research networks explore the interaction of vertebrates| their characteristic arrays of pathogens and emergent disease. A diversity of programmes address the impact of environmental change on animal health| zoonoses| and human health| but as yet no comprehensive framework or strategy has emerged to develop and implement policy and planning. In a regime of climate change and ecological perturbation| the need to document and understand the health| agricultural| societal and economic impact of pathogens and emerging infectious disease is urgent. An integrated and proactive planning process linking national and international resources can lead to informed predictions about the impact of environmental change and can identify pathways for potential management and mitigation. An effective and comprehensive programme will have components for establishing priorities| developing primary data for faunal structure and biodiversity| a capacity for monitoring and surveillance (including scanning and targeted activities)| and linkage to historical and contemporary baselines (against which to assess change) established through archival biological collections. Field and laboratory studies are also necessary to determine developmental thresholds| tolerances and tipping points for many pathogens to establish a context for recognising current constraints and future perturbation| and to explore factors that promote emergence for a variety of pathogens| vectors and pest species. Predictive modelling and risk assessment utilising a range of scenarios for climate change is a final step in this multidisciplinary process. 8764,2008,2,4,Penguins as marine sentinels,From the tropics to Antarctica| penguins depend on predictable regions of high ocean productivity where their prey aggregate. Increases in precipitation and reductions in sea ice associated with climate warming are affecting penguins. The largest breeding colony of Patagonian (Magellanic) penguins| at Punta Tombo| Argentina| had approximately 200|000 breeding pairs in October-2006-a decline of 22% since 1987. In the 1980s and 1990s| petroleum pollution was a major source of Patagonian penguin mortality. In 1994| tanker lanes were moved 40 kilometers (km) farther off the coast of Chubut| and the dumping of ballast water and the oiling of penguins are now rare. However| penguins are swimming 60 km farther north from their nests during incubation than they did a decade ago| very likely reflecting shifts in prey in response to climate change and reductions in prey abundance caused by commercial fishing. These temperate penguin species| marine sentinels for southern oceans| demonstrate that new challenges are confronting their populations. 1105,2008,3,2,Performance and exhaust emission characteristics of a CI engine fueled with Pongamia pinnata methyl ester (PPME) and its blends with diesel,Transport vehicles greatly pollute the environment through emissions such as CO| CO2| NOx| SOx| unburnt or partially burnt HC and particulate emissions. Fossil fuels are the chief contributors to urban air pollution and major source of green house gases (GHGs) and considered to be the prime cause behind the global climate change. Biofuels are renewable| can supplement fossil fuels| reduce GHGs and mitigate their adverse effects on the climate resulting from global warming. This paper presents the results of performance and emission analyses carried out in an unmodified diesel engine fueled with Pongamia pinnata methyl ester (PPME) and its blends with diesel. Engine tests have been conducted to get the comparative measures of brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC)| brake specific energy consumption (BSEC) and emissions such as CO| CO2| HC| NO| to evaluate the behaviour of PPME and diesel in varying proportions. The results reveal that blends of PPME with diesel up to 40% by volume (B40) provide better engine performance (BSFC and BSEC) and improved emission characteristics. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8564,2008,5,4,Perspectives on the linkage between typhoon activity and global warming from recent research advances in paleotempestology,The recent increase in typhoon (tropical cyclone) activity has attracted great interest and induced heated debates over whether it is linked to global warming or only a return to an active phase of the well-known multi-decadal variability. Due to the short instrumental record| our knowledge is quite scarce on the complex processes and mechanism of typhoon generation| development| and evolution| especially for the rare but highly destructive super-typhoons. It is therefore very important to extend the time span of typhoon activity records. Paleotempestology| a young science that emerged in the early 1990s| studies past typhoon activity spanning several centuries to millennia before the instrumental era through the use of geological proxies and historical documentary records. This paper presents a brief review and synthesis on the major research advances and findings of paleotempestology with an emphasis on proxy technique development and applications. The methodology has been evolving from single geologic proxy to multi-proxy techniques by integrating microfossils| sedimentary organic elemental ratios| and stable isotopes| together with typical sedimentary textures and structures| for the diagnosis of storm deposits. A newly-developed proxy technique is employing oxygen isotopes preserved in growing laminae of tree rings| cave stalagmites| and reef corals to diagnose typhoon rainwater impacts. Historical documentary records have been systematically compiled and analyzed to reconstruct the history of typhoon activity in some regions. The extracted typhoon-proxy data show that there does not exist a simple linear relationship between typhoon frequency and Holocene climate (temperature) change. Typhoon activity should have a secular and constant linkage with ENSO fluctuations| in that more typhoons and hurricanes make landfalls in China| Central and North America during La Nina years than El Nino years. This finding is consistent with that derived from recent instrumental data. Shifts in positions of subtropical high exert great influence on storm tracks| but their long-term relationship is still not well understood. All these findings are significant in projecting typhoon trends under global warming scenarios. Future developments in paleotempestology should strengthen the following research fields: (1) proxy generation mechanism and preservation potential| (2) inter-validation of different proxy data| (3) recognition of storm and tsunami deposits| (4) evaluation of paleo-typhoon intensity| (5) numerical modeling| and (6) regional to global scale comparison studies. 8472,2008,2,3,Phase Speed Spectra and the Latitude of Surface Westerlies: Interannual Variability and Global Warming Trend,The extratropical annular-mode-like atmospheric responses to ENSO and global warming and the internal variability of annular modes are associated with similar| yet distinct| dynamical characteristics. In particular| La Nina| global warming| and the positive phase of annular modes are all associated with a poleward shift of midlatitude jet streams and surface westerlies. To improve understanding of these phenomena| the authors identify and compare patterns of interannual variability and global warming trends in the midlatitude surface westerlies and the space-time spectra of associated eddy momentum fluxes by analyzing simulations of the present climate in an atmosphere-only climate model| in which the ENSO-induced extratropical response is validated with that in reanalysis data| and by projection of future climate changes using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. While the response to ENSO is consistent with the refraction of midlatitude eddies due to subtropical wind anomalies| the interannual internal variability of the annular modes marks a change in the eastward propagation speed of midlatitude eddies. In response to global warming| the dominant eddies exhibit a trend toward faster eddy phase speeds in both hemispheres| in a manner similar to the positive phase of interannual internal variability. These diagnoses suggest that the annular mode trend due to greenhouse gas increases may be more related to extratropical processes| especially in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere| rather than being forced from the deep tropics. 9060,2008,2,4,Phenological sequences reveal aggregate life history response to climatic warming,Climatic warming is associated with organisms breeding earlier in the season than is typical for their species. In some species| however| response to warming is more complex than a simple advance in the timing of all life history events preceding reproduction. Disparities in the extent to which different components of the reproductive phenology of organisms vary with climatic warming indicate that not all life history events are equally responsive to environmental variation. Here| we propose that our understanding of phenological response to climate change can be improved by considering entire sequences of events comprising the aggregate life histories of organisms preceding reproduction. We present results of a two-year warming experiment conducted on 33 individuals of three plant species inhabiting a low-arctic site. Analysis of phenological sequences of three key events for each species revealed how the aggregate life histories preceding reproduction responded to warming| and which individual events exerted the greatest influence on aggregate life history variation. For alpine chickweed (Cerastium alpinum)| warming elicited a shortening of the duration of the emergence stage by 2.5 days on average| but the aggregate life history did not differ between warmed and ambient plots. For gray willow (Salix glauca)| however| all phenological events monitored occurred earlier on warmed than on ambient plots| and warming reduced the aggregate life history of this species by 22 days on average. Similarly| in dwarf birch (Betula nana)| warming advanced flower bud set| blooming| and fruit set and reduced the aggregate life history by 27 days on average. Our approach provides important insight into life history responses of many organisms to climate change and other forms of environmental variation. Such insight may be compromised by considering changes in individual phenological events in isolation. 8998,2008,2,4,Phenological timings of leaf budburst with climate change in Japan,Phenological timing of leaf budburst in plants is important for growth| since early budburst timing extends the growth period of the plant. We estimated the effect of climate change on the phenological budburst timing of four trees throughout four sites in Japan| a region with few studies on this topic. The leaf budburst date of plants has advanced or been stable during the last five decades in these four Japanese localities. This fact is due to the negative relationship between dates and temperature using multiple regression models| observed at all sites. Climate change has shifted budburst phenology in Japan with the increase of spring temperatures. However| precipitation did not show any effect on budburst timing. At two budburst dates of three tree species had not remarkably changed or delayed through-sites| out the past five decades. There were differences between localities at the same latitude. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9058,2008,2,4,Phenology of mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems following extreme events: Net and differential responses,Ecosystem responses to key climate drivers are reflected in phenological dynamics such as the timing and degree of "green-up'' that integrate responses over spatial scales from individual plants to ecosystems. This integration is clearest in ecosystems dominated by a single species or life form| such as seasonally dynamic grasslands or more temporally constant evergreen forests. Yet many ecosystems have substantial contribution of cover from both herbaceous and woody evergreen plants. Responses of mixed woody herbaceous ecosystems to climate are of increasing concern due to their extensive nature| the potential for such systems to yield more complex responses than those dominated by a single life form| and projections that extreme climate and weather events will increase in frequency and intensity with global warming. We present responses of a mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystem type to an extreme event: regional-scale pinon pine mortality following an extended drought and the subsequent herbaceous green-up following the first wet period after the drought. This example highlights how reductions in greenness of the slower| more stable evergreen woody component can rapidly be offset by increases associated with resources made available to the relatively more responsive herbaceous component. We hypothesize that such two-phase phenological responses to extreme events are characteristic of many mixed woody herbaceous ecosystems. 1282,2008,2,4,Phosphorus inputs unmask negative effects of ultraviolet radiation on algae in a high mountain lake,Ultraviolet solar radiation (UVR) and atmospheric nutrient loads to pristine ecosystems are global climate change phenomena that simultaneously affect aquatic organisms in ways not easily predicted by single factor studies. Plankton in a high mountain lake was exposed in situ to increasing phosphorus (P) concentrations (mimicking atmospheric pulses) in absence or presence of UVR in order to identify their interactive effect on functional [primary production| organic carbon (C) release (EOC)| and percentage of C released (%EOC)]| growth rate| structural-physiological (algal biomass| sestonic C| P content| chlorophyll a (Chl a)| and Chl a:C ratio| P cell quota| cell-specific Chl a)| and stoichiometric (autotroph C: P ratio) traits. The availability of P after the pulse determined the intensity of responses by primary producers to UVR stress. All structural-physiological and functional variables significantly increased by up to two orders of magnitude in response to P enrichment. UV radiation| over a long-term scale| exerted significant deleterious effects on most structural-physiological variables when inorganic P was added at high levels (>= 30 mu g PL-1). The subsequent unexpected negative synergistic UVR x P effect on algal development did not support our initial hypothesis that P input might buffer the harmful UVR effect. UVR exerted a weak negative effect on primary production but strongly enhanced the absolute and percentage excretion of C (up to 60%)| mechanism responsible of a significant reduction in autotroph C: P ratios. We propose that low sestonic C:P ratios are the outcome of an adaptive strategy of algae in environments with high UVR exposure and extreme nutrient limitation and have important implications for C flux through grazing vs. microbial food webs in oligotrophic systems. 8508,2008,2,4,Photoperiod may constrain the effect of global warming in arctic marine systems,Scenarios for climate change predict that global warming drives biogeographic boundaries polewards. However| reliable predictions of marine food web responses to climate change require understanding of the coupling mechanisms between trophic levels. The Arctic is characterized by extreme light regime (photoperiod) as well as extreme (low) temperatures| both with profound bearing on pelagic ecology but only temperature being affected by climate change. Here| I address the potential impact by the light climate on mesopelagic (mid-water) planktivorous fish and as a result their plankton prey. Mesopelagic fish abound in all oceans| except for the Arctic. I hypothesize that their lack of success in this environment is due to inferior feeding conditions imposed by the extreme light climate at high latitudes. Since photoperiod is unaffected by climate change mesopelagic fish may continue to be scarce| and large copepods such as Arctic Calanus spp. will continue to prevail even in a warmer climate. This hypothesis of photoperiod constraints on the effect of global warming in Arctic marine ecosystems may be tested in fjords with different temperatures and light conditions. 8497,2008,2,4,Phylogenetic relationships among zooxanthellae (Symbiodinium) associated to excavating sponges (Cliona spp.) reveal an unexpected lineage in the Caribbean,Phylogenetic relationships of symbiotic dinoflagellate lineages| distributed in all tropical and subtropical seas| suggest strategies for long distance dispersal but at the same time strong host specialization. Zooxanthellae (Symbiodinium: Dinophyta)| which are associated to diverse shallow-water cnidarians| also engage in symbioses with some sponge species of the genus Cliona. In the Caribbean| zooxanthellae-bearing Cliona has recently become abundant due to global warming| overfishing| and algae abundance. Using molecular techniques| the symbionts from five excavating species (Cliona caribbaea| C. tenuis| C. varians| C. aprica and C. laticavicola) from the southern and southwestern Caribbean were surveyed. Several DNA sequence regions were used in order to confirm zooxanthellae identity; 18S rDNA| domain V of chloroplast large subunit (cp23S)| internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2)| and ITS2 secondary structure. Sequence analyses corroborated the presence of three zooxanthellae clades: A| 13| and G. Presence of clades A and B in common boring sponges of the Caribbean fit with the general pattern of the province. The discovery of clade G for the first time in any organism of the Atlantic Ocean leads us to consider this unusual finding as a phylogenetic relict through common ancestors of sponge clades or an invasion of the sponge from the Indo-Pacific. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1080,2008,2,4,Phylogeography of the pallid kangaroo mouse| Microdipodops pallidus: a sand-obligate endemic of the Great Basin| western North America,Aim Kangaroo mice| genus Microdipodops Merriam| are endemic to the Great Basin and include two species: M. pallidus Merriam and M. megacephalus Merriam. The pallid kangaroo mouse| M. pallidus| is a sand-obligate desert rodent. Our principal intent is to identify its current geographical distribution and to formulate a phylogeographical hypothesis for this taxon. In addition| we test for orientation patterns in haplotype sharing for evidence of past episodes of movement and gene flow. Location The Great Basin Desert region of western North America| especially the sandy habitats of the Lahontan Trough and those in south-central Nevada. Methods Mitochondrial DNA sequence data from portions of three genes (16S ribosomal RNA| cytochrome b| and transfer RNA for glutamic acid) were obtained from 98 individuals of M. pallidus representing 27 general localities sampled throughout its geographical range. Molecular sequence data were analysed using neighbour-joining| maximum-parsimony| maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods of phylogenetic inference. Directional analysis of phylogeographical patterns| a novel method| was used to examine angular measurements of haplotype sharing between pairs of localities to detect and quantify historical events pertaining to movement patterns and gene flow. Results Collecting activities showed that M. pallidus is a rather rare rodent (mean trapping success was 2.88%)| and its distribution has changed little from that determined three-quarters of a century ago. Two principal phylogroups| distributed as eastern and western moieties| are evident from the phylogenetic analyses (mean sequence divergence for cytochrome b is c. 8%). The western clade shows little phylogenetic structure and seems to represent a large polytomy. In the eastern clade| however| three subgroups are recognized. Nine of the 42 unique composite haplotypes are present at two or more localities and are used for the orientation analyses. Axial data from haplotype sharing between pairwise localities show significant| non-random angular patterns: a north-west to south-east orientation in the western clade| and a north-east to south-west directional pattern in the eastern clade. Main conclusions The geographical range of M. pallidus seems to be remarkably stable in historical times and does not show a northward (or elevationally upward) movement trend| as has been reported for some other kinds of organism in response to global climate change. The eastern and western clades are likely to represent morphologically cryptic species. Estimated times of divergence of the principal clades of M. pallidus (4.38 Ma) and between M. pallidus and M. megacephalus (8.1 Ma; data from a related study) indicate that kangaroo mice diverged much earlier than thought previously. The phylogeographical patterns described here may serve as a model for other sand-obligate members of the Great Basin Desert biota. 8505,2008,2,4,Phytolacca americana from Contaminated and Noncontaminated Soils of South Korea: Effects of Elevated Temperature| CO(2) and Simulated Acid Rain on Plant Growth Response,Chemical analyses performed on the invasive weed Phytolacca americana (pokeweed) growing in industrially contaminated (Ulsan) and noncontaminated (Suwon) sites in South Korea indicated that the levels of phenolic compounds and various elements that include some heavy metals (Al| As| B| Cd| Co| Cu| Fe| Mn| Ni| Pb| and Zn) were statistically higher in Ulsan soils compared to Suwon soils with Al being the highest (> 1|116 mg/l compared to 432 mg/l). Analysis of metals and nutrients (K| Na| Ca| Mg| Cl| NH(4)| N| P| S) in plant tissues indicated that accumulation occurred dominantly in plant leaves with Al levels being 33.8 times higher in Ulsan plants (PaU) compared to Suwon plants (PaS). The ability of PaU and PaS to tolerate stress was evaluated under controlled conditions by varying atmospheric CO(2) and temperature and soil pH. When grown in pH 6.4 soils| the highest growth rate of PaU and PaS plants occurred at elevated (30 degrees C) and non-elevated (25 degrees C) temperatures| respectively. Both PaU and PaS plants showed the highest and lowest growth rates when exposed to atmospheric CO(2) levels of 360 and 650 ppm| respectively. The impact of soil pH (2-6.4) on seed germination rates| plant growth| chlorophyll content| and the accumulation of phenolics were measured to assess the effects of industrial pollution and global-warming-related stresses on plants. The highest seed germination rate and chlorophyll content occurred at pH 2.0 for both PaU and PaS plants. Increased pH from 2-5 correlated to increased phenolic compounds and decreased chlorophyll content. However| at pH 6.4| a marked decrease in phenolic compounds| was observed and chlorophyll content increased. These results suggest that although plants from Ulsan and Suwon sites are the same species| they differ in the ability to deal with various stresses. 1054,2008,4,4,Plankton monitoring and analysis in the oceans: capacity building requirements and initiatives in Latin-America,Both scientific and technical capacities are key issues for achieving the objectives of understanding the functioning of the oceans| conserving their health and resources| and predicting the impacts of climate change. Many international programmes related to ocean studies and monitoring| as well as those concerning global climate change| include 'capacity building' as a fundamental process in order to achieve these objectives. Capacity building (CB) in the context of ocean monitoring and research describes the actions concerning the development| fostering and support of infrastructure| resources and relationships for ocean science and related systems and services at individual| organizational| inter-organizational| regional and system levels. The purpose of this document is to define the CB components which are essential for the accomplishment of the objectives of large-scale scientific programmes and initiatives dealing with monitoring and analysis of planktonic communities in the oceans. These components include: a) training of students| technicians| and scientists| b) availability of platforms and instrumentation for time-series sampling and sample analyses| and c) access to information systems and networking for the exchange of data and information. How these components could be included in specific CB actions or have been partially accomplished in the Latin-American region are here discussed. 9215,2008,3,2,Plant biotechnology: a key technology in the 21st century,Although we enjoy convenient and happy lives as a result of using large amount of fossil fuels| this convenience comes at a steep price: global warming| pollution| and destruction of the environment. It took more than a hundred million years for the Earth to accumulate its current reserves of fossil fuels. It is sure that the earth will confuse| if we exhaust it within 1-2 centuries. Solar energy supports all life on the earth| and plants are able to use this energy. Annually| plant biomass produces 8 times as much energy as we consume globally. Therefore| if we could harness 12% of plant biomass for the production of energy and industrial materials| in place of fossil fuels| we could establish a sustainable world. Plant biotechnology is progressing rapidly| and research aimed at producing both fuels and plastics from plant biomass is already underway. Because carbon dioxide generated from plant products will ultimately be consumed by other plants| the recycling system is built in. Our future therefore may not so dark after all. 8757,2008,2,2,Plant functional types do not predict biomass responses to removal and fertilization in Alaskan tussock tundra,1. Plant communities in natural ecosystems are changing and species are being lost due to anthropogenic impacts including global warming and increasing nitrogen (N) deposition. We removed dominant species| combinations of species and entire functional types from Alaskan tussock tundra| in the presence and absence of fertilization| to examine the effects of non-random species loss on plant interactions and ecosystem functioning. 2. After 6 years| growth of remaining species had compensated for biomass loss due to removal in all treatments except the combined removal of moss| Betula nana and Ledum palustre (MBL)| which removed the most biomass. Total vascular plant production returned to control levels in all removal treatments| including MBL. Inorganic soil nutrient availability| as indexed by resins| returned to control levels in all unfertilized removal treatments| except MBL. 3. Although biomass compensation occurred| the species that provided most of the compensating biomass in any given treatment were not from the same functional type (growth form) as the removed species. This provides empirical evidence that functional types based on effect traits are not the same as functional types based on response to perturbation. Calculations based on redistributing N from the removed species to the remaining species suggested that dominant species from other functional types contributed most of the compensatory biomass. 4. Fertilization did not increase total plant community biomass| because increases in graminoid and deciduous shrub biomass were offset by decreases in evergreen shrub| moss and lichen biomass. Fertilization greatly increased inorganic soil nutrient availability. 5. In fertilized removal treatments| deciduous shrubs and graminoids grew more than expected based on their performance in the fertilized intact community| while evergreen shrubs| mosses and lichens all grew less than expected. Deciduous shrubs performed better than graminoids when B. nana was present| but not when it had been removed. 6. Synthesis. Terrestrial ecosystem response to warmer temperatures and greater nutrient availability in the Arctic may result in vegetative stable-states dominated by either deciduous shrubs or graminoids. The current relative abundance of these dominant growth forms may serve as a predictor for future vegetation composition. 9061,2008,5,4,Pleistocene refugia and holocene expansion of a grassland-dependent species| the black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes),Climate change during the late Quaternary has been implicated as the cause of both massive range shifts and extinction events. We combined molecular marker data and previously published fossil data to reconstruct the late Quaternary history of a grassland-dependent species| the black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes)| and to determine whether populations from Pleistocene refugia in the Columbia Basin| eastern Beringia| and Great Plains persisted into the Holocene and Recent eras. Using DNA extracted from 97 museum specimens of extirpated populations| we amplified 309 bp of the mtDNA control region| and 8 microsatellite markers from the nuclear genome. Overall haplotype diversity from 309 base pairs (bp) of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region was low (5 haplotypes| nucleotide diversity = 0.001 +/- 0.001 SD) and was contained within a single phylogenetic clade. The star phylogeny and unimodal mismatch distribution indicated that a rapid range expansion from a single Pleistocene refugium occurred. Microsatellite data corroborated this genetic pattern: populations from the mixed grasslands of the Great Plains had significantly higher expected heterozygosity and allelic richness than populations to the west (HE = 0.66 versus 0.41| AR = 4.3 versus 2.7| respectively)| and 0| a measure of relative population size| was substantially greater in the east than west (2.4 versus 0.7). We infer from these data that black-footed ferrets rapidly colonized western ecoregions in a stepwise fashion from the Great Plains to the intermountain regions of the Rocky Mountains and the Colorado Plateau after the last ice age. It appears that glacial retreat and global warming caused both range expansion and localized extinction in this North American mustelid species. 8643,2008,2,4,Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit,Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports were written to help US Fish and Wildlife Service managers decide whether or not to list polar bears as a threatened species. We assessed these reports based on evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles. None of the reports referred to sources of scientific forecasting methodology. Of the nine| Amstrup et al. [Amstrup| S. C.| B. G. Marcot| D. C. Douglas. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. Administrative Report| USGS Alaska Science Center| Anchorage| AK.] and Hunter et al. [Hunter| C. M.| H. Caswell| M. C. Runge| S. C. Amstrup| E. V. Regehr| I. Stirling. 2007. Polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea II: Demography and population growth in relation to sea ice conditions. Administrative Report| USGS Alaska Science Center| Anchorage| AK.] were the most relevant to the listing decision| and we devoted our attention to them. Their forecasting procedures depended on a complex set of assumptions| including the erroneous assumption that general circulation models provide valid forecasts of summer sea ice in the regions that polar bears inhabit. Nevertheless| we audited their conditional forecasts of what would happen to the polar bear population assuming| as the authors did| that the extent of summer sea ice would decrease substantially during the coming decades. We found that Amstrup et al. properly applied 15 percent of relevant forecasting principles and Hunter et al. 10 percent. Averaging across the two papers| 46 percent of the principles were clearly contravened and 23 percent were apparently contravened. Consequently| their forecasts are unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers. We recommend that researchers apply all relevant principles properly when important public-policy decisions depend on their forecasts. 8710,2008,3,4,Policy drivers and barriers for coal-to-liquids (CtL) technologies in the United States,Because of a growing dependence on oil imports| powerful industrial| political and societal stakeholders in the United States are trying to enhance national energy security through the conversion of domestic coal into synthetic hydrocarbon liquid fuels-so-called coal-to-liquids (CtL) processes. However| because of the technology's high costs and carbon intensity| its market deployment is strongly affected by the US energy| technology and climate policy setting. This paper analyses and discusses policy drivers and barriers for CtL technologies in the United States and reaches the conclusion that an increasing awareness of global warming among US policy-makers raises the requirements for the technology's environmental performance and| thus| limits its potential to regional niche markets in coal-producing states or strategic markets| such as the military| with specific security and fuel requirements. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1340,2008,5,4,Pollen stratigraphy of coal-bearing deposits in the Neogene Jidong Basin| Heilongjiang Province| NE China: New insights on palaeoenvironment and age,The palaeoenvironment and age of coal-bearing lacustrine deposits in the Jidong Basin| Heilongjiang Province| is poorly understood. New pollen data from the Yongqing Formation and the overlying lower part of the Daqingshan Formation recovered in borehole 91-205 revealed a rich and diverse palynoflora representing approximately 70 taxa at the genus/family level. Of these taxa| Ulmus| Quercus| Carya| Liquidambar| Pinus| Tilia| Fagus| and Alnus are the main woody elements; these occur together with numerous pteridophytes| subordinate herbs| and rare algae and acritarchs. Abundant woody taxa suggest a mixed deciduous/conifer forest in the region in association with local shrubs| herbs and algal communities. Some of the pollen types| especially those of climate sensitive genera such as Ulmus| Carya| Liquidambar and Fagus| vary considerably in relative abundances| suggesting climate variability. The reflected climate shows an overall trend towards cooling or deterioration which is largely in agreement with global climate change during the Neogene. Comparisons of the pollen record with representative datasets from neighbouring areas| together with the appearance of the highly-evolved genus Artemisia| suggest that the Yongqing Formation and the lower part of the Daqingshan Formation are of Miocene age. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8933,2008,3,3,Polymer functionalization - Novel rubber for tire tread application,Rising oil and fuel prices and the threat of global warming increase the pressure on both automotive and tire industries to reduce a vehicle's fuel consumption and CO2 emission. An optimized tire rolling resistance contributes to fuel efficiency. In this respect| steps of the developmental work leading to a new modified SSBR grade are discussed. The new SSBR enables a significant improvement of the tire rolling resistance| identified as 37 percent decrease of the tan delta @ 60 degrees C. In addition| beneficial heat built up| abrasion and ice grip characteristics (measured as tan delta @ -10 degrees C) were found.
8646,2008,3,4,Popularizing household-scale biogas digesters for rural sustainable energy development and greenhouse gas mitigation,Biogas utilization has undergone great development in rural China since the government systematically popularized household-scale biogas digesters for meeting the rural energy needs in the 1970s. In order to comprehensively estimate the significance of biogas utilization on rural energy development and greenhouse gas emission reduction| all types of energy sources| including straw| fuelwood| coal| refined oil| electricity| LPG| natural gas| and coal gas| which were substituted by biogas| were analyzed based on the amount of consumption for the years from 1991 to 2005. It was found that biogas provided 832749.13 TJ of energy for millions of households. By the employment of biogas digesters| reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) was estimated to be 73157.59Gg CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)-eq)| and the emission by the biogas combustion was only 36372.75Gg CO(2)-eq of GHG. Energy substitution and manure management| working in combination| had reduced the GHG emission efficiently. The majority of the emission reduction was achieved by energy substitution that reduced 84243.94Gg CO(2)| 3560.01Gg CO(2)-eq of CH(4) and 260.08Gg CO(2)-eq of N(2)O emission. It was also predicted that the total production of biogas would reach to 15.6 billion m(3) in the year 2010 and 38.5 billion m; in the year 2020| respectively. As a result| the GHG emission reductions are expected to reach 28991.04 and 46794.90Gg CO(2)-eq| respectively. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9172,2008,2,4,Population dynamics and life cycle of Pisidium amnicum (Muller) (Bivalvia : Sphaeriidae) and Valvata piscinalis (Muller) (Gastropoda : Prosobranchia) in the Saone river| a nine-year study,The population dynamics and life cycle of two mollusc species Pisidium amnicum and Valvata piscinalis of the Saone river were studied for nine years. The newbom of the former species appeared in April each year. The latter species produced two cohorts per year until 2003. Spawning in spring led to the birth of the early cohort| which generally appeared in May| while spawning in the summer led to the birth of the late cohort| which appeared from July to November. The increase of the mean annual temperature by 1.9 degrees C from 1998 to 2000 was followed by an increase in the density of mollusc populations| possibly triggering or amplifying inter and intra specific competition for food. However. the 2003 heatwave was responsible for the sudden decline of the P. amnicum population| then the more progressive decline of that of V. piscinalis after having strongly modified its demographic structure and its life cycle. In 2004 and 2005 V piscinalis only produced one cohort per year. The observations carried out strongly suggest that the insufficiency of available resources was one of the possible causes of their failure to recover in 2004 and 2005. The increase of global warming predicted by different models could result in the gradual disappearance of P. amnicum from the potamon and of V. piscinalis from the freshwater systems most directly exposed to climatic warming. such as the Saone River. 8609,2008,2,4,Population genetic structure of the ascidian Styela rustica at Kongsfjorden| Svalbard| Arctic,The actual Arctic biota shows a strong affinity with that of the Boreal Atlantic and Pacific ones| as a result of an active recolonization process after the Quaternary glaciations. The geographic distribution of sessile species is usually linked to larvae dispersive capabilities which can be directly related with time spent in the plankton. Ascidians larvae are lecitothorphic and short-lived| which suggest that ascidians could be not efficient dispersers. However| the solitary ascidian Styela rustica (Linnaeus| 1767) (Tunicata| Ascidiacea) shows a wide distribution pattern from the North Atlantic to the Arctic that| together with the relatively recent colonization of the Arctic system could indicate that this species efficiently disperses and colonizes new habitats. In this study we used ISSR-PCR markers to study the genetic structure of five populations of the ascidian Styela rustica at Kongsfjorden| west Spitsbergen (Svalbard archipelago). We analyzed whether this species presents a low genetic structure| as can be expected due to the historical process of recent post glaciations colonization| or if there is genetic differentiation at a local scale| caused by short-lived larvae and limited dispersal potential. The genetic diversity in each population assessed using the marker diversity index (M) ranged from 0.288 to 0.324. Population HN| situated close to a fast retreating glacier| showed the lowest diversity. Processes associated with deglatiation (icebergs calving from the glacier that scour the benthos and the increment of inorganic particulate matter on the water column) would drive to reduced population sizes and explain the reduced genetic variability observed in the HN population with respect to the others in the fjord. This suggests a possible linkage with the global warming process. Although the weak genetic structure found among the studied populations could indicate a founder effect| the genetic landscape shape analysis together with a positive relationship between genetic and geographic distances also suggest possible current gene flow among populations in the fjord. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9269,2008,2,4,POSITIVE EFFECTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS ON CULTURAL HERITAGE IN ROMANIA,Due to the increased trend of global warming and accompanying natural disasters| which may vary from extreme drought to severe floods in various parts of Europe| specific measures are to be taken from transnational to local levels. Among them| it is worth mentioning to support development| in terms of land use and protection of the national heritage and disaster management. Consequently| public information about possible consequences due to natural hazards is highly recommended in economically developed regions with enclosed tourist resorts and specific vulnerable environment. Such an activity can lead to a more precautionary behaviour of the local population and tourists| and| furthermore| to limitation of the damages in case of a natural disaster. A measure of this kind consists of warning panels| posters and leaflets| available in the areas of high vulnerability for natural disasters| advising people living in the very area and tourists to pay attention or even to avoid the dangerous areas| because natural hazards can happen frequently affecting both environment and infrastructures. In other words| an efficient informational system concerning risks produced by natural disasters is of main importance for local authorities| environmental protection agencies and water management systems. The improvement of the disaster management in the European Union and candidate Countries should be based on implementation of lessons learned from previous disasters. The paper presents a dichotornic paradox| i.e. positive versus negative effects of the natural hazards taking into account examples from Romania. Our case studies concentrate on such positive impact that reveals very important archaeological treasures| buried for hundreds years beneath a thick sedimentary cover or at the bottom of shallow waters. Both sites are located in Dobrogea| the antique Scythia Minor. 8796,2008,3,3,Possibilistic fuel cycle assessment of retrofit technologies for two stroke powered tricycles,Two stroke powered tricycles are a major source of air pollution in the Philippines. A fuel-cycle assessment of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and direct injection retrofit technologies for these vehicles is conducted. The results when compared with carbureted two and four strokes units indicate that retrofitting the units to direct injection provides lower fossil energy depletion| global warming| human toxicity and photochemical ozone formation impact potentials compared to LPG fueled carbureted two stroke tricycles while the latter exhibits lower acidification and nutrification impact values. The direct injection retrofitted units show a lower aggregated impact score and dominance over four stroke units. The conversion to LPG revealed minimal environmental benefits compared to the gasoline run units. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1276,2008,2,3,Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta,We estimated the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) site productivity in Alberta based on the Alberta Climate Model and the A2 SRES climate change scenario projections from three global circulation models (CGCM2| HADCM3| and ECHAM4). Considerable warming is apparent in all three models. On average| the increases in mean GDD(5) (growing degree-daysa > 5C) are 18%| 38%| and 65% by the 2020s| 2050s| and 2080s| respectively. Change in precipitation is essentially nil. This results in proportional increases in dryness index. We used the dryness index to predict the potential future range and GDD(5) to predict its potential productivity. Generally| lodgepole pine site index is predicted to increase steadily by 3m for each 30-year period. Offsetting this increase is a large reduction in suitable area as drying increases. At first| the warming increases the potential range up to 67% by the 2020s but then shrinks from 34% to 58% of its current area by 2080. Such major changes will need to be considered when setting long-term forest management plans. The increased risk of both wildfire and insect outbreaks further compounds this planning problem| especially because these disturbance events can interact and further increase risk. 8589,2008,3,4,Potential for reducing air pollution from oil refineries,Islamic Republic of Iran has to invest 95 billion US$ for her new oil refineries to the year 2045. At present| the emission factors for CO(2)| NO(x) and SO(2) are 3.5| 4.2 and 119 times higher than British refineries| respectively. In order to have a sustainable development in Iranian oil refineries| the government has to set emission factors of European Community as her goal. At present CO(2) per Gross Domestic Production (GDP) in the country is about 2.7 kg CO(2) as 1995's US$ value that should be reduced to 1.25 kg CO(2)/GDP in the year 2015. Total capital investment for such reduction is estimated at 346 million US$ which is equal to 23 US$/ton of CO(2). It is evident that mitigation of funds set by Clean Development Mechanism (3 to 7 US$/tons of CO(2)) is well below the actual capital investment needs. Present survey shows that energy efficiency promotion potential in all nine Iranian oil refineries is about 165|677 MWh/year through utilization of more efficient pumps and compressors. Better management of boilers in all nine refineries will lead to a saving of 273 million m(3) of natural gas per year. 9026,2008,2,4,Potential impacts of climate change on stable flies| investigated along an altitudinal gradient,Adult populations of stable flies were sampled along an altitudinal transect in Reunion Island to determine whether higher temperatures were associated with: (a) higher numbers of flies; (b) a longer season of infestation| and/or (c) different responses to warming in the cosmopolitan Stomoxys calcitrans (L) and the tropical Stomoxys niger niger Macquart (Diptera: Muscidae). Flies of both species were trapped at seven farms situated at four altitudes (100-1600 m a.s.l.) over a 90-week period. For both species| there were no relationships between the maximum or mean fly abundance and altitude. Only minimum abundance in winter was significantly higher at lower altitudes. Maximum and mean abundances differed significantly between nearby farms under similar climatic conditions. Seasonal fluctuations in fly abundance changed along the gradient. At lower altitudes| population growth started earlier after the winter but abundance declined earlier in summer| which resulted in a shift of the season of infestation. Seasonal fluctuations of both species were strongly related to climate variables at high altitude| mainly temperature. However| climate variables explained a decreasing proportion of the variations in abundance at lower altitudes. Stomoxys calcitrans was the most abundant species overall| but the proportion of S. n. niger increased significantly at lower altitudes and this species became predominant at 100 m a.s.l. It is concluded that stable fly infestations are unlikely to worsen in response to global warming. Maximum abundance is limited by local factors| possibly larval resources| which suggests that adequate husbandry practices could override the impact of climate change. Because S. n. niger tends to be the predominant pest at elevated temperatures| it is recommended that this species should not be introduced in areas where climate is changing. 9096,2008,4,4,Potential mechanisms of pore-fluid movement from continental lithospheric mantle into upper continental crust,Through integrating the state of the art scientific knowledge in different research fields| some potential mechanisms of large-scale movements of underground pore-fluids such as H(2)O and CO(2) in the continental lithosphere were presented and discussed. The results show that the generation and propagation of porosity waves are important mechanisms to transport mass and heat fluxes from the continental lithospheric mantle into the lower continental crust; the generation and propagation of porosity waves| pore-fluid flow focusing through lower and middle crustal faults| advection of pore-fluids through the lower and middle crust| and whole-crust convection in some particular cases are important mechanisms to transport mass and heat fluxes from the lower into the upper continental crust; heat and mass transport through convective pore-fluid flow is the most effective mechanism of ore body formation and mineralization in hydrothermal systems; due to heat and mass exchange at the interface between the earth surface| hydrosphere and atmosphere| it is very important to consider the hydro-geological effect of the deep earth pore-fluids such as H(2)O and CO(2) on the global warming and climate change in future investigations. 8782,2008,3,3,Potential method for measurement of CO2 leakage from underground sequestration fields using radioactive tracers,Reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the environment may avert the effects of global warming. One method to control CO2 emissions is to sequester it underground. Leakage from storage must be minimized for long-term control. Detection of leaks decreases the amount of CO2 released from storage| so onsite monitoring must be performed over large areas. Spiking the injected CO2 with an isotopic tracer can improve ground leak detection using fewer sampling stations| with greater accuracy than CO2 sensors and no interference from radon gas. The relative merits of sorbent materials| isotopic tracers| detection methods and potential interferences will be discussed. 8806,2008,2,4,Potential N(2)O emissions from leguminous tree plantation soils in the humid tropics,We compared nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions over 1 year from soils of plantations growing acacia| which is a leguminous plant capable of symbiotic nitrogen fixation in root nodules| and secondary forests in Sumatra| Indonesia. N(2)O emissions from acacia plantation soils fluctuated seasonally| from high in the wetter season to low in the drier season| whereas N(2)O emissions from secondary forest soils were low throughout the year. Water-filled-pore-space data showed that denitrification contributed substantially to N(2)O emissions from soils at acacia sites. The average annual N(2)O flux in acacia plantations was 2.56 kg N ha(-1) a(-1)| which was eight times higher than that from secondary forest soils (0.33 kg N ha(-1) a(-1)). In secondary forests| NH(4)(+) was the dominant form of inorganic nitrogen. However| in acacia plantations| the NH(4)(+): NO(3)(-) ratio was relatively lower than that in secondary forests. These results suggest that secondary forests were nitrogen limited| but acacia plantations were less nitrogen limited. Leguminous tree plantations may increase nitrogen cycling| resulting in greater N(2)O emissions from the soil. However| on a global warming potential basis| N(2)O emissions from acacia plantation soils accounted for less than 10% of the carbon uptake by plants. Nevertheless| because of the spread of leguminous tree plantations in Asia| the importance of N(2)O emissions from leguminous tree stands will increase in the coming decades. 8664,2008,3,3,Potential of double-cropped rice ecology to conserve organic carbon under subtropical climate,Understanding the processes of soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation or depletion under different management strategies is vital for maintaining soil health and curbing global warming. Using a 36-year-old fertility experiment under subtropical climate| we investigated the impact of long-term intensive rice-rice cropping system with different managements on the SOC stock. The mechanistic pathway of stabilization of the SOC into different pools| with a tentative C budgeting was also established. Biochemical composition of the organic residues involved| SOC pools of different oxidizability and methane (CH4) emission were estimated for the experiment conducted using organic and inorganic sources of nutrients. Cultivation over the years caused a net decrease in SOC stocks but with balanced fertilization it increased. With increasing depth| the stock decreased on average| to the extent of 50%| 26% and 24% of the total at 0-0.2| 0.2-0.4 and 0.4-0.6 m| respectively. About 4.0% of the crop residues C incorporated into the soil were stabilized into SOC. This was further enhanced (1.6 times) by the application of compost. Carbon loss through CH4 emission was very low (2.6% of the total). 'Summer fallow' had a positive significant influence on C loss from the system. As much as 29% of the compost C added to the soil was stabilized into SOC mostly in the less-labile or nonlabile recalcitrant pools preferentially in the surface layer of the soil. Large polyphenol and lignin contents of crop residues including compost| and the long period of soil submergence under rice cultivation might have conferred recalcitrant character to the SOC leading to its stabilization in nonlabile pools. This would result into an enrichment of the SOC stock and restriction to the gaseous C loading into the atmosphere. 8709,2008,3,4,Potential of practical implementation of rice straw-based power generation in Thailand,This paper uses life cycle assessment to evaluate the potential of rice straw power plant implementation in Thailand in terms of GHG emission savings from avoided open burning and from implementing rice straw power production| which can substitute that from natural gas. Annually| 8.5-14.3 Mt rice straw burning contributes 5.0-8.6 MtCO(2)-eq which could be converted to 786-1325 MW of power| yielding a total greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction of 7.8-13.2 MtCO(2)-eq. Moreover| 1090-1837 Mm(3) of natural gas could be substituted annually. A total of 25 provinces in central Thailand have potential to generate electricity with a total capacity of 210-292 MW (plant efficiency 20-27%)| resulting in an annual GHG emission savings of 2.3-2.6 MtCO(2)-eq| and with a provincial capacity of over 20 MW in 6 provinces| 10-20 MW in 7 provinces| 1-10 MW in 6 provinces and less than 1 MW in 6 provinces. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8902,2008,2,4,Potential vulnerability implications of coastal inundation due to sea level rise for the coastal zone of Semarang city| Indonesia,Sea level rise (SLR) as a result of global warming has an impact on the increasing inundation on the coastal area. Nowadays| Semarang coastal area in Indonesia is already subject to coastal hazard due to tidal inundation and land subsidence. The impact of the inundation is predicted to be even more severe with the scenario of sea level rise. This paper concentrates on the risk assessment to the population| land use| and monetary losses as a result of coastal inundation under enhanced sea level rise. This paper uses the scenario of the depth of inundation to generate coastal inundation model using GIS-Technology. Anticipatory issues including methodology development for hazard assessment would be necessary for Semarang coastal area| and therefore| geo-information technology can be considered as a useful tool to rapidly assess the impact of the coastal hazard and evaluate the economic losses. 9144,2008,3,4,Power Electronics and Its Applications to Renewable Energy in Japan,The electric utility industry is gradually undergoing restructuring and the main paradigm shift is the introduction of the principles of competition. With the level of future demand for electricity being unclear| power market players are reluctant to commit to long-term capital investment| with the result that construction of new large-scale power plants and also transmission and distribution infrastructure is typically being avoided. At the same time| power facilities are being upgraded in response to business strategies for bringing a profit in power markets and for keeping supply reliability for customers. Under such circumstances of competitive power markets| practical use of renewable and distributed energy generation offers an attractive alternative for power supply. The advantages include a short construction cycle as the supply can be located near to the demand| being less of a burden to the existing transmission network| and contributing to prevention of global warming through clean combustion using novel energy technologies such as natural gas co-generation| natural gas micro turbines| or fuel cells. Distributed generations using renewable energy resources such as wind and solar energy are also attracting attention. Regarding practical use of renewal energy in Japan| a new set of requirements advents. The first is the development of a set of policies for promoting power generated from renewable energy. The second is to evaluate the influence of distributed generations from renewable energy on the quality and reliability of the electricity. The third is the establishment of the technology requirements for interconnection with the power grid. The fourth is the development of future energy supply networks such as Power parks| Microgrids| and Smart grids. In implementing future energy supply networks utilizing renewable energy| power electronic devices are widely used to interface some forms of renewable energy generations and energy storages to distribution networks| and their use is likely to increase remarkably in the near future. The development of these power electronics is benefiting from the rapid advancements in the capability of power semiconductor switching devices and in the progress being made in the design and control of variable-speed drives for large motors. The most diffused application of power electronic devices is to invert the DC generated from some dispersed energy resources (e.g. photo volta-ic| fuel cells| micro turbines and battery storages) to existing 50/60 Hz AC. Also| power electronic devices are used to decouple rotating generates from the network and so potentially increase the efficiency of the operation of the prime mover by ensuring that they operate at their most efficient speed for the range of input power. For example| power electronics are used to support variable-speed wind turbines and are also now being proposed for some forms of small hydro-generation and energy storages during transients [1]. In this article| we will discuss the role of power electronics for renewable energy utilizations and the kinds of infrastructure that should be designed and how this should be pursued in order to maintain high reliability and quality for future energy supply networks in the restructured electricity markets. 8737,2008,2,4,Precipitation-dependent flowering of Globularia alypum and Erica multiflora in Mediterranean shrubland under experimental drought and warming| and its inter-annual variability,Background and Aims Relationships between autumn flowering| precipitation and temperature of plant species of Mediterranean coastal shrublands have been described| but not analysed experimentally. These relationships were analysed for two species of co-occurring| dominant| autumn-flowering shrubs| Globularia alypum and Erica multiflora| over 4 years and in experimentally generated drought and warming conditions. The aim was to improve predictions about the responses and adaptations of flowering of Mediterranean vegetation to climate change. Methods Beginning of anthesis and date of maximum flowering intensity ('peak date') were monitored over 4 years (2001-2004) on a garrigue land type in the noth-east of the Iberian Peninsula. Two experimental treatments were applied| increased temperature (+0.73 degrees C) and reduced soil moisture (-17%) relative to untreated plots. Key Results Flowering of Globularia alypum and Erica multiflora differed greatly between years depending on the precipitation of the previous months and the date of the last substantial rainfall (> 10 mm). Globularia alypum flowered once or twice (unimodal or bimodal) as the result of differences in the distribution and magnitude of precipitation in late-spring and summer (when floral buds develop). The drought treatment delayed and decreased flowering of Globularia alypum in 2001 and delayed flowering in 2002. Warming extended the period between the beginning of flowering and the end of the second peak for autumn flowering in 2001 and also increased peak intensity in 2002. Flowering of Erica multiflora was unaffected by either treatment. Conclusions Autumn flowering of Globularia alypum and Erica multiflora is more dependent on water availability than on temperature. Considerable inter-annual plasticity in the beginning of anthesis and peak date and on unimodal or bimodal flowering constitutes a 'safe strategy' for both species in relation to varying precipitation and temperature. However| severe changes in precipitation in spring and summer may severely affect flowering of Globularia alypum but not Erica multiflora| thus affecting development/structure of the ecosystem if such conditions persist. 9188,2008,3,3,Predicting and verifying the intended and unintended consequences of large-scale ocean iron fertilization,Ocean iron fertilization (OIF) is being considered as a strategy for mitigating rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. One model for implementation is the sale of carbon offsets. Modeling studies predict that OIF has the potential to produce a material difference in the rise of atmospheric CO2 over the next several decades| but this could only be attained by alteration of the ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles of much of the world's oceans. The efficacy of OIF on this scale has not been proven. However| the consequences of successful implementation must be considered now| for 2 important reasons: (1) to determine if the environmental effects would be predictable and verifiable| and if so| acceptable; and (2) to establish whether the basis for valuing carbon offsets-an accurate audit of net reductions in cumulative greenhouse gas potential over 100 yr-can be met. Potential side-effects of widespread OIF that must be considered include a reduced supply of macronutrients to surface waters downstream of fertilized regions| increased emissions of the potent greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane| and changes in the extent or frequency of coastal hypoxia. Given the uncertainties inherent in ocean models| predictions of environmental effects must be backed up by measurements. Thus| to go forward with confidence that the effects of rising CO2 could indeed be mitigated through OIF over the next century| and to establish the foundations for auditing carbon offsets| it must be explicitly demonstrated that methods exist to predict and detect downstream effects of OIF against the background of both climate variability and global warming. We propose that until the side-effects of widespread OIF can be shown to be verifiable-and there is good reason to believe that they cannot - OIF should not be considered a viable technology for climate mitigation. 1181,2008,2,4,Predicting changes in alluvial channel patterns in North-European Russia under conditions of global warming,Global climate change may have a noticeable impact on the northern environment| leading to changes in permafrost| vegetation and fluvial morphology. In this paper we compare the results from three geomorphological models and study the potential effects of changing climatic factors on the river channel types in North-European Russia. Two of the selected models by Romashin [Romashin| VV| 1968. Variations of the river channel types under governing factors| Annals of the Hydrological Institute| vol. 155. Hydrometeoizdat| Leningrad| pp. 56-63.] and Leopold and Wolman [Leopold| L.B.| Wolman| M.G.| 1957. River channel pattern: braided| meandering and straight| Physiographic and hydraulic studies of rivers. USA Geological Survey Professional Paper 252| pp. 85-98.] are conventional QS-type models| which predict the existence of either multi-thread or single-tread channel types using data on discharge and channel slope. The more advanced model by Van den Berg [Van den Berg| J.H.| 1995. Prediction of alluvial channel pattern of perennial rivers. Geomorphology 12| 259-270.] takes into account the size of the sediment material. We used data from 16 runoff gauges to validate the models and predict the channel types at selected locations under modem and predicted for the future climatic conditions. Two of the three models successfully replicated the currently existing channel types in all but one of the studied sites. Predictive calculations under the hypothetical scenarios of 10%| 15%| 20% and 35% runoff increase gave different results. Van den Berg's model predicted potential transformation of the channel types| from single- to multi-thread| at 4 of 16 selected locations in the next few decades| and at 5 locations by the middle of the 2 1 st century. Each of the QS-type models predicted such transformation at one site only. Results of the study indicate that climatic warming in combination with other environmental changes may lead to transformation of the river channel types at selected locations in north-western Russia. Further efforts are needed to improve the performance of the fluvial geomorphological models and their ability to predict such changes. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9097,2008,2,4,Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon,Habitat conditions mediate the effects of climate| so neighboring populations with differing habitat conditions may differ in their responses to climate change. We have previously observed that juvenile survival in Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon is strongly correlated with summer temperature in some populations and with fall streamflow in others. Here| we explore potential differential responses of the viability of four of these populations to changes in streamflow and temperature that might result from climate change. First| we linked predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation from several General Circulation Models to a local hydrological model to project streamflow and air temperature under two climate-change scenarios. Then| we developed a stochastic| density-dependent life-cycle model with independent environmental effects in juvenile and ocean stages| and parameterized the model for each population. We found that mean abundance decreased 20-50% and the probability of quasi-extinction increased dramatically (from 0.1-0.4 to 0.3-0.9) for all populations in both scenarios. Differences between populations were greater in the more moderate climate scenario than in the more extreme| hot/dry scenario. Model results were relatively robust to realistic uncertainty in freshwater survival parameters in all scenarios. Our results demonstrate that detailed population models can usefully incorporate climate-change predictions| and that global warming poses a direct threat to freshwater stages in these fish| increasing their risk of extinction. Because differences in habitat may contribute to the individualistic population responses we observed| we infer that maintaining habitat diversity will help buffer some species from the impacts of climate change. 9164,2008,3,4,Predicting livestock productivity and methane emissions in northern Australia: development of a bio-economic modelling approach,Enteric fermentation from livestock is a large source of methane| which has a global warming potential 23 times that of carbon dioxide. In Australia| enteric emissions from the livestock sector contribute 10% of Australia's greenhouse gases. The northern Australian beef industry of 16 million animals is a major contributor to these emissions. However| relative to temperate systems| comparatively little research has been conducted on enteric methane emissions from tropical feeding systems. This paper describes a modelling approach that estimates cattle methane emissions for various bioregions of northern Australia. The approach incorporates a metabolisable energy based model of animal production linked to a property herd economic model. This provides a flexible tool to evaluate animal and property herd dynamics on regional methane yields and liveweight productivity| as well as to assess financial impacts. The model predicts that an important determinant of methane output per unit of product is reduced days to market. Reduced days to market may be achieved through a range of energy supplementation and marketing strategies. 8551,2008,2,4,Predicting the fate of a living fossil: how will global warming affect sex determination and hatching phenology in tuatara?,How will climate change affect species' reproduction and subsequent survival? In many egg-laying reptiles| the sex of offspring is determined by the temperature experienced during a critical period of embryonic development (temperature-dependent sex determination| TSD). Increasing air temperatures are likely to skew offspring sex ratios in the absence of evolutionary or plastic adaptation| hence we urgently require means for predicting the future distributions of species with TSD. Here we develop a mechanistic model that demonstrates how climate| soil and topography interact with physiology and nesting behaviour to determine sex ratios of tuatara| cold-climate reptiles from New Zealand with an unusual developmental biology. Under extreme regional climate change| all-male clutches would hatch at 100% of current nest sites of the rarest species| Sphenodon guntheri| by the mid-2080s. We show that tuatara could behaviourally compensate for the male-biasing effects of warmer air temperatures by nesting later in the season or selecting shaded nest sites. Later nesting is| however| an unlikely response to global warming| as many oviparous species are nesting earlier as the climate warms. Our approach allows the assessment of the thermal suitability of current reserves and future translocation sites for tuatara| and can be readily modified to predict climatic impacts on any species with TSD. 1287,2008,2,4,Predicting the Impact of Long-Term Temperature Changes on the Epidemiology and Control of Schistosomiasis: A Mechanistic Model,Background. Many parasites of medical and veterinary importance are transmitted by cold-blooded intermediate hosts or vectors| the abundance of which will vary with ambient temperatures| potentially altering disease prevalence. In particular| if global climate change will increase mean ambient temperature in a region endemic with a human pathogen then it is possible that the incidence of disease will similarly increase. Here we examine this possibility by using a mathematical model to explore the effects of increasing long-term mean ambient temperature on the prevalence and abundance of the parasite Schistosoma mansoni| the causative agent of schistosomiasis in humans. Principal Findings. The model showed that the impact of temperature on disease prevalence and abundance is not straightforward; the mean infection burden in humans increases up to 30 degrees C| but then crashes at 35 degrees C| primarily due to increased mortalities of the snail intermediate host. In addition| increased temperatures changed the dynamics of disease from stable| endemic infection to unstable| epidemic cycles at 35 degrees C. However| the prevalence of infection was largely unchanged by increasing temperatures. Temperature increases also affected the response of the model to changes in each parameter| indicating certain control strategies may become less effective with local temperature changes. At lower temperatures| the most effective single control strategy is to target the adult parasites through chemotherapy. However| as temperatures increase| targeting the snail intermediate hosts| for example through molluscicide use| becomes more effective. Conclusions. These results show that S. mansoni will not respond to increased temperatures in a linear fashion| and the optimal control strategy is likely to change as temperatures change. It is only through a mechanistic approach| incorporating the combined effects of temperature on all stages of the life-cycle| that we can begin to predict the consequences of climate change on the incidence and severity of such diseases. 8776,2008,2,3,Prediction of Influence of Global Warming on Biological Cycle and Carbon Balance in Forest Ecosystems of the Volga River Basin,The gradient (ordination) analysis was used to find the tendencies and the rate of changes in discrete parameters of the cycle of forest phytomasses accompanying a growing thermoarid climatic trend. The prognostic estimates of biotic regulation of the carbon cycle by forest biogeocenoses according to the HadCM3 (version A2) climatic scenarios| describing the most powerful coming global warming| are presented. 1342,2008,2,4,Prediction of the distribution of Arctic-nesting pink-footed geese under a warmer climate scenario,Global climate change is expected to shift species ranges polewards| with a risk of range contractions and population declines of especially high-Arctic species. We built species distribution models for Svalbard-nesting pink-footed geese to relate their occurrence to environmental and climatic variables| and used the models to predict their distribution under a warmer climate scenario. The most parsimonious model included mean May temperature| the number of frost-free months and the proportion of moist and wet moss-dominated vegetation in the area. The two climate variables are indicators for whether geese can physiologically fulfil the breeding cycle or not and the moss vegetation is an indicator of suitable feeding conditions. Projections of the distribution to warmer climate scenarios propose a large north- and eastward expansion of the potential breeding range on Svalbard even at modest temperature increases (1 and 2 degrees C increase in summer temperature| respectively). Contrary to recent suggestions regarding future distributions of Arctic wildlife| we predict that warming may lead to a further growth in population size of| at least some| Arctic breeding geese. 8930,2008,3,4,Preparative-scale one-pot syntheses of hexafluoro-1|3-butadiene,Hexafluoro-1|3-butadiene| with its negligible global warming potential| is required in quantities for application in plasma dielectric etching in semiconductor industry and as gaseous microbubble suspension contrast agents in diagnostic ultrasound imaging. Three efficient protocols for the preparation of perfluoro-1|3-butadiene in 62-70% overall yields have been described. They involve the coupling of (1) iodotrifluoroethylene (ITFE) with activated copper| (2) trifluorovinylzinc bromide in the presence of copper (II) or iron (III) salts and (3) trifluorovinylzinc chloride| prepared from 1|1|1|2-tetrafluorethane (HFC 134a) in the presence of copper (II) or iron (III) salts. (c) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. 9261,2008,4,2,Presentation| calibration and validation of the low-order| DCESS Earth System Model (Version 1),A new| low-order Earth System Model is described| calibrated and tested against Earth system data. The model features modules for the atmosphere| ocean| ocean sediment| land biosphere and lithosphere and has been designed to simulate global change on time scales of years to millions of years. The atmosphere module considers radiation balance| meridional transport of heat and water vapor between low-mid latitude and high latitude zones| heat and gas exchange with the ocean and sea ice and snow cover. Gases considered are carbon dioxide and methane for all three carbon isotopes| nitrous oxide and oxygen. The ocean module has 100 m vertical resolution| carbonate chemistry and prescribed circulation and mixing. Ocean biogeochemical tracers are phosphate| dissolved oxygen| dissolved inorganic carbon for all three carbon isotopes and alkalinity. Biogenic production of particulate organic matter in the ocean surface layer depends on phosphate availability but with lower efficiency in the high latitude zone| as determined by model fit to ocean data. The calcite to organic carbon rain ratio depends on surface layer temperature. The semi-analytical| ocean sediment module considers calcium carbonate dissolution and oxic and anoxic organic matter remineralisation. The sediment is composed of calcite| non-calcite mineral and reactive organic matter. Sediment porosity profiles are related to sediment composition and a bioturbated layer of 0.1 m thickness is assumed. A sediment segment is ascribed to each ocean layer and segment area stems from observed ocean depth distributions. Sediment burial is calculated from sedimentation velocities at the base of the bioturbated layer. Bioturbation rates and oxic and anoxic remineralisation rates depend on organic carbon rain rates and dissolved oxygen concentrations. The land biosphere module considers leaves| wood| litter and soil. Net primary production depends on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and remineralization rates in the litter and soil are related to mean atmospheric temperatures. Methane production is a small fraction of the soil remineralization. The lithosphere module considers outgassing| weathering of carbonate and silicate rocks and weathering of rocks containing old organic carbon and phosphorus. Weathering rates are related to mean atmospheric temperatures. A pre-industrial| steady state calibration to Earth system data is carried out. Ocean observations of temperature| carbon 14| phosphate| dissolved oxygen| dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity constrain air-sea exchange and ocean circulation| mixing and biogeochemical parameters. Observed calcite and organic carbon distributions and inventories in the ocean sediment help constrain sediment module parameters. Carbon isotopic data and carbonate vs. silicate weathering fractions are used to estimate initial lithosphere outgassing and rock weathering rates. Model performance is tested by simulating atmospheric greenhouse gas increases| global warming and model tracer evolution for the period 1765 to 2000| as forced by prescribed anthropogenic greenhouse gas inputs and other anthropogenic and natural forcing. Long term| transient model behavior is studied with a set of 100 000 year simulations| forced by a slow| 5000 Gt C input of CO(2) to the atmosphere| and with a 1.5 million year simulation| forced by a doubling of lithosphere CO(2) outgassing. 8733,2008,5,3,Preserved paleo-oceanic plateaus in accretionary complexes: Implications for the contributions of the Pacific superplume to global environmental change,We have reinvestigated the mid-Cretaceous plume pulse in relation to palco-oceanic plateaus from accretionary prisms in the circum-Pacific region| and we have correlated the Pacific superplume activity with catastrophic environmental changes since the Neoproterozoic. The Paleo-oceanic plateaus are dated at 75-150 Ma; they were generated in the Pacific superplume region and are preserved in accretionary prisms. The volcanic edifice composed of both modem and paleo-oceanic plateaus is up to 10.7 x 10(6) km(2) in area and 19.1 x 10(7) km(3) in volume. The degassing rate of CO2 (0.82 - 1.1 x 10(18) mol/m.y.) suggests a significant impact on Cretaceous global warming. The synchronous occurrence of paleo-oceanic plateaus in accretionary complexes indicates that Pacific superplume pulse activities roughly coincided at the Permo-Triassic boundary and the Vendian-Cambrian boundary interval. The CO2 expelled by the Pacific superplume probably contributed to environmental catastrophes. The initiation of the Pacific superplume contributed to the snowball Earth event near the Vendian-Cambrian boundary; this was one of the most dramatic events in Earth's history. The scale of the Pacific superplume activity roughly corresponds to the scale of drastic environmental change. (C) 2007 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1097,2008,2,4,PREY-MEDIATED EFFECTS OF DROUGHT ON CONDITION AND SURVIVAL OF A TERRESTRIAL SNAKE,Drought can have severe ecological effects and global climate-change theory predicts that droughts are likely to increase in frequency and severity. Therefore| it is important that we broaden our understanding of how drought affects not only individual species| but also multitrophic interactions. Here we document vegetation and small-mammal abundance and associated patterns of Texas ratsnake (Elaphe obsoleta) body condition and survival before| during| and after a drought in central Texas| USA. Vegetation (grass and forbs) height and small-mammal capture rates were two times greater in wet years compared to the drought year. The decline of small mammals (the snakes' principal prey) during the drought was associated with a drop in ratsnake body condition| consistent with reduced food intake. During the drought| snake mortality also increased 24%. Although higher snake mortality was attributable to predation and road mortality rather than being a direct result of starvation| an increase in risk-prone behavior by foraging snakes probably increased their exposure to those other mortality factors. Drought conditions lasted only for 21 months| and vegetation| small- mammal abundance| and snake condition had returned to pre-drought levels within a year. Although estimates of snake population size were not available| it is likely that substantially more than a year was required for the population to return to its previous size. 1142,2008,2,4,Primary production and rain use efficiency across a precipitation gradient on the Mongolia plateau,Understanding how the aboveground net primary production (ANPP) of arid and semiarid ecosystems of the world responds to variations in precipitation is crucial for assessing the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Rain-use efficiency (RUE) is an important measure for acquiring this understanding. However| little is known about the response pattern of RUE for the largest contiguous natural grassland region of the world| the Eurasian Steppe. Here we investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of ANPP and RUE and their key driving factors based on a long-term data set from 21 natural arid and semiarid ecosystem sites across the Inner Mongolia steppe region in northern China. Our results showed that| with increasing mean annual precipitation (MAP)| (1) ANPP increased while the interannual variability of ANPP declined| (2) plant species richness increased and the relative abundance of key functional groups shifted predictably| and (3) RUE increased in space across different ecosystems but decreased with increasing annual precipitation within a given ecosystem. These results clearly indicate that the patterns of both ANPP and RUE are scale dependent| and the seemingly conflicting patterns of RUE in space vs. time suggest distinctive underlying mechanisms| involving interactions among precipitation| soil N| and biotic factors. Also| while our results supported the existence of a common maximum RUE| they also indicated that its value could be substantially increased by altering resource availability| such as adding nitrogen. Our findings have important implications for understanding and predicting ecological impacts of global climate change and for management practices in arid and semiarid ecosystems in the Inner Mongolia steppe region and beyond. 1081,2008,4,4,Principal components and iterative regression analysis of geophysical series: Application to Sunspot number (1750-2004),We present here an implementation of a least squares iterative regression method applied to the sine functions embedded in the principal components extracted from geophysical time series. This method seems to represent a useful improvement for the non-stationary time series periodicity quantitative analysis. The principal components determination followed by the least squares iterative regression method was implemented in an algorithm written in the Scilab (2006) language. The main result of the method is to obtain the set of sine functions embedded in the series analyzed in decreasing order of significance| from the most important ones| likely to represent the physical processes involved in the generation of the series| to the less important ones that represent noise components. Taking into account the need of a deeper knowledge of the Sun's past history and its implication to global climate change| the method was applied to the Sunspot Number series (1750-2004). With the threshold and parameter values used here| the application of the method leads to a total of 441 explicit sine functions| among which 65 were considered as being significant and were used for a reconstruction that gave a normalized mean squared error of 0.146. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8612,2008,3,3,Prioritizing land-management options for carbon sequestration potential,Global warming is inevitable. Therefore| the need is to develop strategies to reduce the greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Carbon sequestration through biomass seems to be a cheap and viable option. There are several land-use options which can sequester carbon. Their potential of locking carbon differs not only with the type of species| but also with the agroclimatic zones. Hence| location-specific land-use systems need to be prioritized taking both carbon sequestration potential and socio-economic needs into account. It was found that in the terai zone of West Bengal| fallow land and agricultural field sequester 5.86% and 4.73% carbon respectively| compared to the natural forest of Shorea robusta. However| agroforestry systems| viz. tea garden and agrihorticulture contributed 24.24% and 9.09% carbon respectively. The agrihorticulture system while sequestering carbon also provides agricultural. crops and other economic gains| including carbon credits| and hence seems to be the best option. The potential of carbon storage of tree + crop-based system can be further increased using improved planting materials of perennial components. 1045,2008,5,4,Processes controlling the geochemical composition of the South China Sea sediments during the last climatic cycle,Sediments of the Upper 28.2 m of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1145 from the northern South China Sea (SCS) were analyzed for their geochemical composition. Most of the major and trace elements exhibit significant fluctuations at glacial-interglacial scales| implying a close relation with regional and global climate change. M-normalized elemental ratios can be Subdivided into three principal components (PC). PC1 (e.g.| Ca/Al| Ba/Al| Sr/Al) displays significant glacial-interglacial variation and is related to paleoproductivity in the northern SCS. PC2 (e.g.| K/Al| Mg/Al| Rb/Al) is associated with the degree of chemical weathering in the source regions and shows little glacial-interglacial variation. PC3 (e.g.| Ti/Al| Zr/Al) reflects the relative contribution of coarse- and fine-grained materials in the terrigenous components of the SCS sediments. likely associated with changes in sea level and monsoon-induced fluvial input. Spectral analyses indicate that paleoproductivity (i.e.| Ba/Al) in the South China Sea lags Hulu/Sanbao speleothem delta(18)O record (an indicator of annual average meteoric precipitation) by 102 degrees and Indian summer monsoon (multi-proxy stack) by 23 degrees at the precession band| indicating a close relationship with the Indian summer monsoon. However| the chemical weathering degree in the source area (PC2) is not sensitive to monsoon-related changes at the precession band during the last climatic Cycle. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8419,2008,3,2,Prognosis for a sick planet,Global warming is the most important science issue of the 21st century| challenging the very structure of our global society. The study of past climate has shown that the current global climate system is extremely sensitive to human-induced climate change. The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the industrial revolution has already caused changes with clear evidence for a 0.75 degrees C rise in global temperatures and 22 cm rise in sea level during the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis report (2007) predicts that global temperatures by 2100 could rise by between 1.1 degrees C and 6.4 degrees C. Sea level could rise by between 28 cm and 79 cm| more if the melting of the polar ice caps accelerates. In addition| weather patterns will become less predictable and the occurrence of extreme climate events| such as storms| floods| heat waves and droughts| will increase. The potential effects of global warming on human society are devastating. We do| however| already have many of the technological solutions to cure our sick planet. 9024,2008,2,4,Progress on observation of cryospheric components and climate-related studies in China,Systematic studies on the cryosphere in China started in the late 1950s. Significant achievements have been made by continuous investigation of glacier inventories| frozen ground observations| paleo-climate analyses of ice cores| process studies and the modeling of cryopsheric/atmospheric interactions. The general facts and understanding of these changes include: (1) Solid precipitation| including the number of days with frost and hail storms| shows a decreasing tendency over the past half century. (2) In most areas glaciers are retreating or have completely vanished (>80%)| some glaciers are still advancing (5%-20% depending upon time period). The annual glacial melt water has been increasing since the 1980s. This increased supply of melt water to river runoff in Northwest China is about a 10%-13%. (3) The long-term variability of snow cover in western China is characterized by a large inter-annual variation superimposed on a small increasing trend. Snow cover variability in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) is influenced by the Indian monsoon| and conversely impacts monsoon onset and strength and eventually the drought and flood events in middle-low reaches of Yangtze River. (4) Frozen ground| including permafrost| is decaying both in QXP and in Northeast China. The most significant changes occurred in the regions with thickest seasonal frozen ground (SFG)| i.e.| inland QXP| then northeastern and northwestern QXP. The cold season air temperature is the main factor controlling SFG change. The increase of ground surface temperatures is more significant than air temperature. (5) The sea ice coverage over the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea has deceased since the 1980s. (6) River ice duration and ice thickness is also decreasing in northern China. In 2001| the Chinese National Committee of World Climate Research Program/Climate and Cyosphere (WCRP/CliC) (CNC-CliC) was organized to strengthen research on climate and cryosphere in China. Future monitoring of the cryosphere in China will be enhanced both in spatial coverage and through the use of new techniques. Interactions between atmosphere/cryosphere/ hydrosphere/land-surface will be assessed to improve our understanding of the mechanisms of cryospheric change. 8857,2008,2,4,Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern US: implications for crops| pests| livestock| and farmers,Most prior climate change assessments for U. S. agriculture have focused on major world food crops such as wheat and maize. While useful from a national and global perspective| these results are not particularly relevant to the Northeastern U. S. agriculture economy| which is dominated by dairy milk production| and high-value horticultural crops such as apples (Malus domestica)| grapes (Vitis vinifera)| sweet corn (Zea mays var. rugosa)| cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata)| and maple syrup (sugar maple| Acer saccharum). We used statistically downscaled climate projections generated by the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model| run with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future emissions scenarios A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower)| to evaluate several climate thresholds of direct relevance to agriculture in the region. A longer (frost-free) growing season could create new opportunities for farmers with enough capital to take risks on new crops (assuming a market for new crops can be developed). However| our results indicate that many crops will have yield losses associated with increased frequency of high temperature stress| inadequate winter chill period for optimum fruiting in spring| increased pressure from marginally over-wintering and/or invasive weeds| insects| or disease| or other factors. Weeds are likely to benefit more than cash crops from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Projections of thermal heat index values for dairy cows indicate a substantial potential negative impact on milk production. At the higher compared to lower emissions scenario| negative climate change effects will occur sooner| and impact a larger geographic area within the region. Farmer adaptations to climate change will not be cost- or risk-free| and the impact on individual farm families and rural communities will depend on commodity produced| available capital| and timely| accurate climate projections. 8777,2008,2,3,Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model| multi-scenario| IPCC AR4 simulations,Recent and potential future increases in global temperatures are likely to be associated with impacts on the hydrologic cycle| including changes to precipitation and increases in extreme events such as droughts. We analyze changes in drought occurrence using soil moisture data for the SRES B1| A1B and A2 future climate scenarios relative to the PICNTRL pre-industrial control and 20C3M twentieth century simulations from eight AOGCMs that participated in the IPCC AR4. Comparison with observation forced land surface model estimates indicates that the models do reasonably well at replicating our best estimates of twentieth century| large scale drought occurrence| although the frequency of long-term (more than 12-month duration) droughts are over-estimated. Under the future projections| the models show decreases in soil moisture globally for all scenarios with a corresponding doubling of the spatial extent of severe soil moisture deficits and frequency of short-term (4-6-month duration) droughts from the mid-twentieth century to the end of the twenty-first. Long-term droughts become three times more common. Regionally| the Mediterranean| west African| central Asian and central American regions show large increases most notably for long-term frequencies as do mid-latitude North American regions but with larger variation between scenarios. In general| changes under the higher emission scenarios| A1B and A2 are the greatest| and despite following a reduced emissions pathway relative to the present day| the B1 scenario shows smaller but still substantial increases in drought| globally and for most regions. Increases in drought are driven primarily by reductions in precipitation with increased evaporation from higher temperatures modulating the changes. In some regions| increases in precipitation are offset by increased evaporation. Although the predicted future changes in drought occurrence are essentially monotonic increasing globally and in many regions| they are generally not statistically different from contemporary climate (as estimated from the 1961-1990 period of the 20C3M simulations) or natural variability (as estimated from the PICNTRL simulations) for multiple decades| in contrast to primary climate variables| such as global mean surface air temperature and precipitation. On the other hand| changes in annual and seasonal means of terrestrial hydrologic variables| such as evaporation and soil moisture| are essentially undetectable within the twenty-first century. Changes in the extremes of climate and their hydrological impacts may therefore be more detectable than changes in their means. 1328,2008,2,2,Projected potential vegetation change in China under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios,The ability of seven global coupled ocean-atmosphere models to reproduce East Asian monthly surface temperature and precipitation climatologies during 1961-1990 is evaluated. January and July climate differences during the 2050s and 2090s relative to 1961-1990 projected by the seven-model ensemble under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and 132 scenarios are then briefly discussed. These projections| together with the corresponding atmospheric CO2 Concentrations under the SRES A2 and 132 scenarios| are subsequently used to drive the biome model BIOME3 to simulate potential vegetation distribution in China during the 2050s and 2090s. It is revealed that potential vegetation belts during the 2050s shift northward greatly in central and eastern China compared to those during 1961-1990. In contrast| potential vegetation change is slight in western China on the whole. The spatial pattern of potential vegetation during the 2090s is generally similar to that during the 2050s| but the range of potential vegetation change against 1961-1990 is more extensive during the 2090s than the 2050s| particularly in western China. Additionally| there exists model-dependent uncertainty of potential vegetation change under the SRES A2 scenario during the 2090s| which is due to the scatter of projected climate change by the models. The projected change in potential vegetation under the SRES A2 scenario during the 2090s is attributable to surface temperature change south of 35 degrees N and to the joint changes of surface temperature| precipitation| and atmospheric CO2 concentration north of 35 degrees N. 9073,2008,2,4,Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: water withdrawal,Potential changes in the availability of water resources are one of the greatest concerns relating to global climate warming. Socio-economic developments will also influence water use and demands. This study was conducted to evaluate potential changes in water withdrawals and availability under various socio-economic and climate change scenarios. In the current paper| which presents the first part of the study| future potential water withdrawals are projected according to socio-economic driving factors under the scenarios A1b| A2| B1| and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)| which was released for the Fourth Assessment Report on global warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) in 2000. Total world water withdrawal is currently approximately 3800 km(3)/year| and will likely exceed 6000 km(3)/year by 2055| according to all scenarios. Water withdrawal is projected to increase in the future| but change trends largely depend on the socio-economic scenarios. Scenario A2 shows the extreme situation of continuously increasing water withdrawal. The scenario with global cooperation on solutions to social| economic| and environmental issues (Scenario B1) illustrates that society can reach relatively higher economic development by using less water and thus encourages sustainable governance of world water resources. In addition| comparison with other studies is conducted to help us understand the uncertainty range when projecting world water withdrawals according to different methods and assumptions. 8821,2008,2,4,Proposal for a simple and sensitive haemolytic assay for palytoxin Toxicological dynamics| kinetics| ouabain inhibition and thermal stability,Benthic dinoflagellates of the genus Ostreopsis are important components of subtropical and tropical marine coral reef-lagoonal environments. Currently| as a result of global warming and trade globalization| they are also distributed worldwide. These microalgae are shown to produce palytoxin| one of the most potent non-protein marine toxins known. The haemolytic assay is a very easy| rapid and sensitive method to determine palytoxin. However| under the conditions reported in previous works this assay is inadequate for a rigorous dose-response treatment| since: (1) it produces degenerate sigmoidal profiles| with a pronounced slope which makes the calculation of the ED50 very sensitive to the experimental err or; (2) at the usual work temperature| the in vitro stability of the system is low| which accentuates the variability and ambiguity of the response. To resolve these problems haemolysis of sheep erythrocytes is studied| including it's toxicological dynamics| kinetics| inhibition by ouabain and response to temperature. The results show that| to obtain a smoother| more stable and reproducible response| it is necessary to apply two resources simultaneously: operation at a moderate temperature and partial inhibition of the palytoxin by ouabain. It also produces highly reliable parameters and allows strict equivalencies to be established with the mouse bioassays| a traditional reference point| though bioethically questionable and 20 times less sensitive than the bioassay proposed here. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8577,2008,3,4,Protecting climate with forests,Policies for climate mitigation on land rarely acknowledge biophysical factors| such as reflectivity| evaporation| and surface roughness. Yet such factors can alter temperatures much more than carbon sequestration does| and often in a conflicting way. We outline a framework for examining biophysical factors in mitigation policies and provide some best-practice recommendations based on that framework. Tropical projects-avoided deforestation| forest restoration| and afforestation-provide the greatest climate value| because carbon storage and biophysics align to cool the Earth. In contrast| the climate benefits of carbon storage are often counteracted in boreal and other snow-covered regions| where darker trees trap more heat than snow does. Managers can increase the climate benefit of some forest projects by using more reflective and deciduous species and through urban forestry projects that reduce energy use. Ignoring biophysical interactions could result in millions of dollars being invested in some mitigation projects that provide little climate benefit or| worse| are counter-productive. 8617,2008,5,4,Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia,Following the suggestions of a recent National Research Council report [NRC (National Research Council) (2006) Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2|000 Years (Natl Acad Press| Washington| DC).]| we reconstruct surface temperature at hemispheric and global scale for much of the last 2|000 years using a greatly expanded set of proxy data for decadal-to-centennial climate changes| recently updated instrumental data| and complementary methods that have been thoroughly tested and validated with model simulation experiments. Our results extend previous conclusions that recent Northern Hemisphere surface temperature increases are likely anomalous in a long-term context. Recent warmth appears anomalous for at least the past 1|300 years whether or not tree-ring data are used. If tree-ring data are used| the conclusion can be extended to at least the past 1|700 years| but with additional strong caveats. The reconstructed amplitude of change over past centuries is greater than hitherto reported| with somewhat greater Medieval warmth in the Northern Hemisphere| albeit still not reaching recent levels. 8556,2008,3,4,Public concern over global warming correlates negatively with national wealth,It has been shown previously that the awareness and concern of the general public about global warming is not only a function of scientific information. Both psychological and sociological factors affect the willingness of laypeople to acknowledge the reality of global warming| and to support climate policies of their home countries. In this paper| I analyse a cross-national dataset of public concern about global warming| utilising data from 46 countries. Based on earlier results at the national and regional level| I expect concern to be negatively correlated to national measures of wealth and carbon dioxide emissions. I find that gross domestic product is indeed negatively correlated to the proportion of a population that regards global warming as a serious problem. There is also a marginally significant tendency that nations' per capita carbon dioxide emissions are negatively correlated to public concern. These findings suggest that the willingness of a nation to contribute to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions decreases with its share of these emissions. This is in accordance with psychological findings| but poses a problem for political decision-makers. When communicating with the public| scientists ought to be aware of their responsibility to use a language that is understood by laypeople. 1077,2008,3,3,Public Perception of Climate Change Voluntary Mitigation and Barriers to Behavior Change,Mitigating global climate change requires not only government action but also cooperation from consumers. Population-based| cross-sectional surveys were conducted among 1202 respondents in Portland OR and Houston TX between June and September 2007 regarding awareness| concern| and behavior change related to climate change. The data were subjected to both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Awareness about climate change is virtually universal (98% in Portland and 92% in Houston) with the vast majority reporting some level of concern (90% in Portland and 82% in Houston). A multivariate analysis revealed significant predictors of behavior change: individuals with heightened concern about climate change (p < 0.001); respondents with higher level of education (p = 0.03); younger compared with older individuals (p < 0.001); and Portlanders more likely to change behavior compared with Houstonians (p < 0.001). Of those who changed behavior| 43% reported having reduced their energy usage at home| 39% had reduced gasoline consumption| and 26% engaged in other behaviors| largely recycling. Qualitative data indicate a number of cognitive| behavioral| and structural obstacles to voluntary mitigation. Although consumers are interested in global climate change-mitigation strategies and willing to act accordingly| considerable impediments remain. Government policy must eliminate economic| structural| and social barriers to change and advance accessible and economical alternatives. Individual-level mitigation can be a policy option under favorable contextual conditions| as these results indicate| but must be accompanied by mitigation efforts from industry| commerce| and government. 8456,2008,4,4,Public priorities for sustainable forest management in six forest dependent communities of British Columbia,It is critical to understand how the public prioritizes multiple forestry values when establishing objectives for sustainable forest management. While this is a complex and difficult task| a necessary step is to elicit a broad range of public opinions in forest planning to ensure that decisions serve the needs of various forest stakeholders and society at large. This study seeks to understand how six forest dependent communities in British Columbia prioritize a number of attributes associated with sustainable forest management by using a simple survey-based measurement tool| the Thurstone scale. The results suggest that ecological attributes are a higher priority for survey respondents followed by quality of life| global warming| and economic considerations. This paper explores some of the ramifications of the priorities for sustainable forest management measured in these six communities as well as implications for using the Thurstone scale in processes like Public Advisory Groups. 1263,2008,2,4,Quantifying coastal inundation vulnerability of Turkey to sea-level rise,The vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas in Turkey to inundation was quantified based on the sea-level rise scenarios of 1| 2| and 3 m by 2205. Through digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM)| the extent and distribution of the high to low-risk coastal plains were identified. The spatio-temporal analysis revealed the inundated coastal areas of 545| 1|286| and 2|125 km(2) at average rates of 5| 10| and 15 mm yr(-1) for 200 years| respectively. This is equivalent to minimum and maximum land losses by 2205 of 0.1-0.3% of the total area and of 1.3-5.2% of the coastal areas with elevations of less than 100 m in the country| respectively. This study provides an initial assessment of vulnerability to sea-level rise to help decision-makers| and other concerned stakeholders to develop appropriate public policies and land-use planning measures. 8452,2008,3,3,Quantifying the external costs of vehicle use: Evidence from America's top-selling light-duty models,Vehicle externality costs include emissions of greenhouse and other gases (affecting global warming and human health)| crash costs (imposed on crash partners)| roadway congestion| and space consumption| among others. These five sources of external costs by vehicle make and model were estimated for the top-selling passenger cars and light-duty trucks in the US. Among these external costs| those associated with crashes and congestion are estimated to be the most practically significant. When crash costs are included| the worst offenders (in terms of highest external costs) were found to be pickups. If crash costs are removed from the comparisons| the worst offenders tend to be four pickups and a very large SUV: the Ford F-350 and F-250| Chevrolet Silverado 3500. Dodge Ram 3500| and Hummer H2| respectively. Regardless of how the costs are estimated| they are considerable in magnitude| and nearly on par with vehicle purchase prices. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9233,2008,4,4,Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales,A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO2 through photosynthesis| but respiration| decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales| we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils| including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10(12) g of carbon) in 2000| with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered. 1230,2008,2,4,Quantitative observations of a major coral bleaching event in Barbados| Southeastern Caribbean,In late summer 2005 a mass coral bleaching event occurred in the Caribbean. Here we quantify coral bleaching in Barbados at six sites on the island's sheltered west and exposed southwest coasts| including nearshore fringing and patch reefs and offshore bank reef habitats. Onset of coral bleaching occurred in late August 2005 and persisted for many months after temperatures cooled. All reef habitats and virtually all coral taxa were affected| with an average of 70.6% of all colonies bleaching. Nearshore reefs (< 10 m depth) were affected more severely than offshore deeper reefs (> 15 m) with an average of 80.6% of all coral colonies bleaching compared with 60.5% on the latter. Inter-species variation in susceptibility to bleaching was marked with > 90% of colonies bleaching in some species whilst < 10% bleached in others. Follow-up surveys revealed low coral mortality| with an overall mean of 3.8% partial colony death across all species and reefs by February 2006. However| bleached condition has persisted with a mean of 37.7% of all coral colonies still bleached after 5 1/2 months| indicating that loss of live coral is likely to continue for some time. This event represents the most severe bleaching episode ever witnessed on Barbados' reefs and emphasises the vulnerability of small island states| with a high reliance on healthy coral reef ecosystem services| to elevated sea water temperatures associated with climate variability and global climate change. 8817,2008,4,3,Radiative forcing from surface NO(x) emissions: spatial and seasonal variations,The global three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry-transport model STOCHEM has been used to follow changes in the tropospheric distributions of methane CH(4) and ozone O(3) following the emission of pulses of the oxides of nitrogen NO (x) . Month-long emission pulses of NO (x) produce deficits in CH(4) mixing ratios that bring about negative radiative forcing (climate cooling) and decay away with e-folding times of 10-15 years. They also produce short-term excesses in O(3) mixing ratios that bring about positive radiative forcing (climate warming) that decay over several months to produce deficits| with their attendant negative radiative forcing (climate cooling) that decays away in step with the CH(4) deficits. Total time-integrated net radiative forcing is markedly influenced by cancellation between the negative CH(4) and long-term O(3) contributions and the positive short-term O(3) contribution to leave a small negative residual. Consequently| total net radiative forcing from NO (x) emission pulses and the global warming potentials derived from them| show a strong dependence on the magnitudes| locations and seasons of the emissions. These dependences are illustrated using the Asian continent as an example and demonstrate that there is no simple robust relationship between continental-scale NO (x) emissions and globally-integrated radiative forcing. We find that the magnitude of the time-integrated radiative forcing from NO (x) -driven CH(4) depletion tends to approach and outweigh that from ozone enhancement| leaving net time-integrated radiative forcings and global warming potentials negative (climate cooling) in contrast to the situation for aircraft NO (x) (climate warming). Control of man-made surface NO (x) emissions alone may lead to positive radiative forcing (climate warming). 8746,2008,4,3,Radiative impact of boreal smoke in the Arctic: Observed and modeled,The Arctic climate is modulated| in part| by the presence of aerosols that affect the horizontal and vertical distribution of radiant energy passing through the atmosphere. Aerosols affect the surface-atmosphere radiation balance directly through interactions with solar and terrestrial radiation and indirectly through interactions with cloud particles. During summer 2004 forest fires destroyed vast areas of boreal forest in Alaska and western Canada| releasing smoke into the atmosphere. Smoke aerosol passing over instrumented field sites near Barrow| Alaska| was monitored to determine its physical and optical properties and its impact on the surface radiation budget. Empirical determinations of the direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF) by the smoke were used to corroborate simulations made using the Moderate Resolution Transmittance radiative transfer model| MODTRAN (TM) 5. DARF is defined as the change in net shortwave irradiance per unit of aerosol optical depth (AOD). DARF| varying with solar angle and surface type| was evaluated at the surface| at the top of the atmosphere (TOA)| and within the intervening layers of the atmosphere. The TOA results are compared with fluxes derived from coincident satellite retrievals made using the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) radiance data. Smoke tends to reduce the net shortwave irradiance at the surface while increasing it within layers in which it resides. Over the Arctic tundra during summer| a layer of smoke having AOD = 0.5 at 500 nm produces a diurnally averaged DARF of about -40 W m(-2) at the surface and -20 W m (-2) at TOA| while the layer itself tends to warm at a rate of approximate to 1 K d(-1). The tendency of smoke to cool the surface while heating the layer above may lead to increased atmospheric stability and suppress cloud formation. Radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere is especially sensitive to small changes in surface albedo| evidenced in both the model results and satellite retrievals. TOA net shortwave flux decreases when smoke is present over dark surfaces and tends to increase if the underlying surface is bright. For example| at solar noon during midsummer at Barrow| a layer of smoke having AOD(500) = 0.5 will reduce the net shortwave flux at TOA by approximate to 30 W m(-2) over the ocean while at the same time increasing it by 20 W m(-2) over an adjacent area of melting sea ice. For smoke aerosol| the sensitivity of DARF to changing surface albedo (assuming a solar zenith angle of 50 degrees) is about +15 W m(-2) AOD(-1) for every increase in surface albedo of 0.10. Throughout the Arctic summer| surface and TOA cooling and a tendency toward warming in the intervening atmospheric layers are the dominant radiative impacts of boreal smoke over the ocean and tundra areas| but the radiative forcing at TOA is positive over regions covered by ice or snow. Enhanced differential cooling/heating of ocean| ice| and snow due to the presence of smoke in the atmosphere may affect regional circulation patterns by perturbing diabatic processes. Should the frequency and intensity of boreal fires increase in the future because of global warming| the more persistent presence of smoke in the atmosphere may be manifest as a negative feedback at the surface. In addition| there will likely be indirect radiative impacts of the smoke as it influences cloudiness| which in turn further modulates the Arctic radiation budget. 1218,2008,2,4,Rain| temperature| and child-adolescent height among Native Amazonians in Bolivia,Background: Global climate change and recent studies on early-life origins of well-being suggest that climate events early in life might affect health later in life. Aim: The study tested hypotheses about the association between the level and variability of rain and temperature early in life on the height of children and adolescents in a foraging-farming society of native Amazonians in Bolivia (Tsimane'). Subject and methods: Measurements were taken for 525 children aged 2-12 and 218 adolescents aged 13-23 in 13 villages in 2005. Log of standing height was regressed on mean annual level and mean intra-annual monthly coefficient of variation (CV) of rain and mean annual level of temperature during gestation| birth year| and ages 2-4. Controls include age| quinquennium and season of birth| parent's attributes| and dummy variables for surveyors and villages. Results: Climate variables were only related with the height of boys age 2-12. The level and CV of rain during birth year and the CV of rain and level of temperature during ages 2-4 were associated with taller stature. There were no secular changes in temperature (1973-2005) or rain (1943-2005). Conclusion: The height of young females and males is well protected from climate events| but protection works less well for boys ages 2-12. 1160,2008,2,4,Rainfall effects on rare annual plants,1. Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability| and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations| yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing| water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood. 2. We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking| rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future. 3. Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5-12 years of censusing| including a severe drought and a wet El Nino year. During the drought| population sizes were low for all species. However| even in non-drought years| population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation| variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season| a germination cue for annual plants. 4. Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community| suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time| the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect. 5. Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates| but only the former was clearly related to rainfall. 6. Synthesis. Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains| acting through germination| may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall. 8760,2008,2,4,Rainfall influences on ungulate population abundance in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem,1. Rainfall is the prime climatic factor underpinning the dynamics of African savanna ungulates| but no study has analysed its influence on the abundance of these ungulates at monthly to multiannual time scales. 2. We report relationships between rainfall and changes in age- and sex-structured abundances of seven ungulate species monitored monthly for 15 years using vehicle ground counts in the Maasai Mara National Reserve| Kenya. 3. Abundance showed strong and curvilinear relationships with current and cumulative rainfall| with older topi| Damaliscus korrigum (Ogilby); warthog| Phacochoerus aethiopicus (Pallas); waterbuck| Kobus ellipsyprimnus (Ogilby); and impala| Aepyceros melampus (Lichtenstein) responding to longer lags than younger animals| portraying carryover effects of prior habitat conditions. 4. The abundances of newborn calves were best correlated with monthly rainfall averaged over the preceding 5-6 months for topi| waterbuck| warthog| and 2 months for the migratory zebra Equus burchelli (Gray)| but with seasonal rainfall averaged over 2-5 years for giraffe| Giraffa camelopardalis (L.); impala; and kongoni| Alcelaphus busephalus (Pallas). The cumulative late wet-season rainfall was the best predictor of abundance for quarter- to full-grown animals for most species. Monthly rainfall exerted both negative and positive effects on the abundances of zebra| impala and waterbuck. Ignoring age| both sexes responded similarly to rainfall. 5. Births were strongly seasonal only for warthog and topi| but peaked between August and December for most species. Hence abundance was strongly seasonal for young topi and warthog and the migratory zebra. Pronounced seasonality in births for warthog and topi obliterated otherwise strong relationships between abundance and rainfall when both month and rainfall were included in the same model. Aggregated density produced relationships with rainfall similar to those for fully grown animals| emphasizing the necessity of demographic monitoring to reliably reveal rainfall influences on ungulate abundance in the Mara. 6. Strong relationships between abundance and rainfall suggest that rainfall underpins the dynamics of African savanna ungulates| and that changes in rainfall due to global warming may markedly alter the abundance and diversity of these mammals. Ungulates respond to rainfall fluctuations through movements| reproduction or survival| and the responses appear independent of breeding phenology and synchrony| dietary guild| or degree of water dependence. Newborns and adults have contrasting responses to rainfall. Males and females respond similarly to rainfall when age is ignored. 9072,2008,2,4,Raised water temperature lowers diversity of hyporheic aquatic hyphomycetes,1. The hyporheic zone of a permanent first-order stream was divided into a treatment and a control section using a 1 m deep sheet-metal barrier. During a 4-month pre-treatment period| water temperatures in two transects of the two sections were not different. Upon heating| the water temperature in the treatment transect increased by an average of 4.3 degrees C over values in the control transect. 2. Eleven bimonthly core samples were taken from a treatment and a control transect| and recovered CPOM was classified as twigs| wood| grass| roots| cedar and deciduous leaves. 3. In both transects| twigs were the most common and deciduous leaves the least common substrates. The number of leaf fragments declined significantly in the heat-treated transect. 4. Diversity and frequencies of occurrence of aquatic hyphomycetes were highest on leaves and lowest on grass and wood. On leaves| their frequency of occurrence was higher in control than in treatment samples. 5. Preliminary results with amplified and cloned 18S DNA sequences revealed many fungal taxa with high affinities to Basidiomycota| particularly to Limnoperdon incarnatum. 6. By itself| higher water temperature due to global warming is likely to lower the availability of substrates for| and therefore the occurrence of| aquatic hyphomycetes. 8813,2008,2,3,Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming,Climate change affects plants in natural and agricultural ecosystems throughout the world but little work has been done on the effects of climate change on plant disease epidemics. To illustrate such effects| a weather-based disease forecasting model was combined with a climate change model predicting UK temperature and rainfall under high-and low-carbon emissions for the 2020s and 2050s. Multi-site data collected over a 15-year period were used to develop and validate a weather-based model forecasting severity of phoma stem canker epidemics on oilseed rape across the UK. This was combined with climate change scenarios to predict that epidemics will not only increase in severity but also spread northwards by the 2020s. These results provide a stimulus to develop models to predict the effects of climate change on other plant diseases| especially in delicately balanced agricultural or natural ecosystems. Such predictions can be used to guide policy and practice in adapting to effects of climate change on food security and wildlife. 1171,2008,2,4,Range expansion of a habitat-modifying species leads to loss of taxonomic diversity: a new and impoverished reef state,Global climate change is predicted to have major negative impacts on biodiversity| particularly if important habitat-modifying species undergo range shifts. The sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii (Diadematidae) has recently undergone poleward range expansion to relatively cool| macroalgal dominated rocky reefs of eastern Tasmania (southeast Australia). As in its historic environment| C. rodgersii in the extended range is now found in association with a simplified Cybarrens' habitat grazed free of macroalgae. The new and important role of this habitat-modifier on reef structure and associated biodiversity was clearly demonstrated by completely removing C. rodgersii from incipient barrens patches at an eastern Tasmanian site and monitoring the macroalgal response relative to unmanipulated barrens patches. In barrens patches from which C. rodgersii was removed| there was a rapid proliferation of canopy-forming macroalgae (Ecklonia radiata and Phyllospora comosa)| and within 24 months the algal community structure had converged with that of adjacent macroalgal beds where C. rodgersii grazing was absent. A notable scarcity of limpets on C. rodgersii barrens in eastern Tasmania (relative to the historic range) likely promotes rapid macroalgal recovery upon removal of the sea urchin. In the recovered macroalgal habitat| faunal composition redeveloped similar to that from adjacent intact macroalgal beds in terms of total numbers of taxa| total individuals and Shannon diversity. In contrast| the faunal community of the barrens habitat is overwhelmingly impoverished. Of 296 individual floral/faunal taxa recorded| only 72 were present within incipient barrens| 253 were present in the recovered patches| and 221 were present within intact macroalgal beds. Grazing activity of C. rodgersii results in an estimated minimum net loss of approximately 150 taxa typically associated with Tasmanian macroalgal beds in this region. Such a disproportionate effect by a single range-expanding species demonstrates that climate change may lead to unexpectedly large impacts on marine biodiversity as key habitat-modifying species undergo range modification. 1222,2008,2,4,Range-edge effects promote clonal growth in peripheral populations of the one-sided wintergreen Orthilia secunda,Existing in suboptimal conditions is a frequent occurrence for species inhabiting the cusp of their ecological range. In range-edge populations of plants| the scarcity of suitable habitat may be reflected in small population sizes which may result in increased self-pollination and/or inbreeding and an increase in the incidence of clonal reproduction. These factors may result in a decrease in levels of genetic diversity and a loss of potential adaptive variation that may compromise species' ability to cope with changes in their environment| an issue that is particularly relevant today with the current concern surrounding global climate change and its effect on species' distributional ranges. In the present study| we have compared the levels of clonal reproduction in the one-sided wintergreen Orthilia secunda (L.) House in (1) populations from its main continuous distribution range| (2) populations occurring on the limits of the continuous range| and (3) peripheral populations outwith the species' continuous distribution range. Range-edge populations in Scotland and Sweden displayed significantly lower genotypic richness and diversity than those from the main area of the species' distribution in these countries. Populations from Ireland| which occur in the temperate zone rather than the boreal conditions that are the preferred habitat for the species| and which represent relict populations left over from cooler periods in the Earth's history| displayed no within-population genetic diversity| suggesting a complete lack of sexual reproduction. Furthermore| the genetic distinctiveness of the Irish populations| which contained alleles not found in either the Scottish or the Swedish populations| highlights the value of 'trailing edge' populations and supports the concept of 'parochial conservation'| namely the conservation of species that are locally rare but globally common. 8948,2008,3,4,Ranking of refrigerants,Environmental ranking of refrigerants is of need in many instances. The aim is to assess the relative environmental hazard posed by 40 refrigerants| including those used in the past|those presently used| and some proposed substitutes. Ranking is based upon ozone depletion potential| global warming potential| and atmospheric lifetime and is achieved by applying the Hasse diagram technique| a mathematical method that allows us to assess order relationships of chemicals. The refrigerants are divided into 13 classes| of which the chlorofluorocarbons| hydrofluorocarbons| hydrochlorofluorocarbons| hydrofluoroethers| and hydrocarbons contain the largest number of single substances. The dominance degree| a method for measuring order relationships among classes| is discussed and applied to the 13 refrigerant classes. The results show that some hydrofluoroethers are as problematic as the hydrofluorocarbons. Hydrocarbons and ammonia are the least problematic refrigerants with respect to the three environmental properties. 9151,2008,4,4,Ranking patterns| an application to refrigerants,Ranking methods are of great importance for assessing the relative importance or potential impact of different objects| e.g. chemicals| screening methods| etc. When a ranking procedure is applied it is desired to obtain a total order of the ranked objects. With most methods| this is achieved through the mathematical combination of descriptors characterising the objects| often under the inclusion of descriptor priorities. However| such priority settings affect the final ranking and the contribution of each descriptor to the final result becomes obscure. In this paper| METEOR (Method of evaluation by order theory) is described| a ranking procedure which allows to explore the complete space of possible descriptor priorities in such a way that total orders are obtained. METEOR permits 1) to study the total order resulting from any descriptors' prioritisation| 2) to determine the priorities necessary to obtain a particular total order| 3) to calculate the probability of having a particular total order| and 4) to calculate the similarity between different total orders. METEOR is applied to 18 refrigerants used in the past| presently used| and some proposed substitutes| characterised by their ozone depletion potentials| global warming potentials and atmospheric lifetimes. The results show that pentafluorodimethyl ether| a proposed replacement for the problematic fully halogenated refrigerants| has a probability of 68 % of being an environmentally problematic substance of the selection of refrigerants considered in this paper. 8624,2008,5,3,Rapid carbon injection and transient global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum,The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)| ~55.5 Myr ago| was a geologically brief (~170 kyr) episode of globally elevated temperatures| which occurred superimposed on the long-term late Paleocene and early Eocene warming trend (Fig. 1). It was marked by a 5 - 8° C warming in both low and high-latitude regions| a perturbation of the hydrological cycle and major biotic response on land and in the oceans| including radiations| extinctions and migrations (see overviews in Bowen et al.| 2006; Sluijs et al.| 2007a). In addition| the PETM is associated with a pronounced negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE)| recorded as a >2.5‰ decrease in the stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of sedimentary components (e.g.| Kennett and Stott| 1991; Koch et al.| 1992) (Fig. 1). Although there is discussion on the exact magnitude of the CIE| as it appears to depend on substrate (e.g.| Schouten et al.| 2007)| it can only be explained by a massive (at least 1.5 × 1018 g: 1500 Gt) injection of 13C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system (Dickens et al.| 1995; 1997). Recent work has focused on elucidating the injection mechanism(s) and volume of the carbon that caused the CIE| but has also addressed the question whether the 13C-depleted carbon caused the warming or acted as a positive feedback in an already warming world. Moreover| was the PETM a unique event in the early Paleogene greenhouse world and what is the relevance of the PETM for current carbon injection into the atmosphere and/or the oceans from fossil fuel burning?
1061,2008,2,4,Rapid range expansion and community reorganization in response to warming,Species ranges are expected to expand along their cooler boundaries in response to rising temperatures associated with current global climate change. However| this 'fingerprint' of climate change is yet to be assessed for an entire flora. Here| we examine patterns of altitudinal range change in the complete native vascular flora of sub-Antarctic Marion Island. We demonstrate a rapid mean upslope expansion in the flora since 1966| in response to 1.2 degrees C warming on the island. The 3.4 +/- 0.8 m yr(-1) (mean +/- SE) upslope expansion rate documented is amongst the highest estimates from partial floras. However| less than half of the species in the flora were responsible for the expansion trend| demonstrating that the global fingerprint of warming may be driven by a highly responsive subset of the species pool. Individual range expansion rates varied greatly| with species-specific niche requirements explaining some of this variation. As a result of the idiosyncratic expansion rates| altitudinal patterns of species richness and community composition changed considerably| with the formation of no-analog communities at high and intermediate altitudes. Therefore| both species- and community-level changes have occurred in the flora of Marion Island over a relatively short period of rapid warming| demonstrating the sensitivity of high latitude communities to climate change. Patterns of change within this flora illustrate the range of variation in species responses to climate change and the consequences thereof for species distributions and community reorganization. 1268,2008,5,2,Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20|000 years,The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast| past greenhouse gas radiative forcing| causing climate to change| is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO(2) and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22|000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO(2) but from the combination of CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16|000 years. In addition| the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change| which is anthropogenic in origin| is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22|000 years. 8705,2008,3,4,Rates of CO2 removal by a Aphanothece microscopica Nageli in tubular photobioreactors,The integral method for the analysis of kinetic data was used to describe the removal of carbon dioxide dissolved in the aqueous phase of a tubular photobioreactor by Aphanothece microscopica Nageli. The effects of the carbon dioxide concentration (3| 15| 25| 50 and 62%)| light intensity (960| 3000| 6000| 9000 and 11|000 lux) and temperature (21.5| 25| 30| 35 and 38.5 degrees C) were considered using a central composite design| aiming to determine the most efficient system conditions. Response surface methodology showed the importance of the operational parameters of the photobioreactor on the kinetics of carbon dioxide removal| a good fit of the first order kinetic model to the experimental data being obtained. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8621,2008,2,4,Recent decrease of summer nutrients concentrations and future possible shrinkage of the subarctic North Pacific high-nutrient low-chlorophyll region,We found evidence that summertime surface nutrient concentration in the subarctic North Pacific (SANP)| the third largest "high-nutrient and low-chlorophyll'' (HNLC) region in the world oceans| has decreased during 1975 to 2005. The observed trend seemed independent from natural decadal/interannual variations and roughly explained by the combination of multidecadal increasing trend of sea surface temperature (SST) and the observed negative correlation of nutrient concentration vs. SST. These analyses indicated that the observed decrease is mainly due to the recent stratification of the upper ocean column caused by global warming. This nutrient trend has a potential to minimize the present SANP-HNLC region by up to 25%| assuming that the observed trend continues until the end of this century. 8950,2008,2,4,Recent increase in body size of the American marten Martes americana in Alaska,Using museum specimens| we studied recent changes in skull size of the American marten Martes americana| in continental Alaska. In Alaska| global warming has resulted in milder winters that may contribute to an improved food supply in the wild. In the present study| we tested the hypothesis that body size of the marten had increased during the second half of the 20th century| in response to global warming. We found that skull size| and by implication body size| increased significantly during the second half of the 20th century| possibly due to an improved food supply and/or lower metabolic demands in winter. Improved food availability in winter may result from the improved nutritional conditions for prey| and/or from increased access to prey resulting from a longer snow-free season. Longitude had a significant positive effect on skull size and a significant negative effect on teeth size. In Alaska| the climate is milder along the western coast and becomes harsher inland. Hence| the milder climate was associated with larger body size providing further support for our prediction that body size of the American marten was influenced by food availability and reduced energy expenditure. The negative relationship between longitude and teeth size may indicate a trend towards a larger prey in inland marten populations| but we have no data to support or refute this hypothesis. (C) 2008 The Linnean Society of London. 8812,2008,4,4,Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale,We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth's climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes| valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI)| or for a combination of the two. The implications| and the relative merits| of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite| which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades| is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper| that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise| are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings. 8465,2008,2,4,Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system,Arctic climate system change has accelerated tremendously since the beginning of this century| and a strikingly extreme sea-ice loss occurred in summer 2007. However| the greenhouse-gas-emissions forcing has only increased gradually and the driving role in Arctic climate change of the positively-polarized Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) trend has substantially weakened. Although various contributing factors have been examined| the fundamental physical process| which orchestrates these contributors to drive the acceleration and the latest extreme event| remains unknown. We report on drastic| systematic spatial changes in atmospheric circulations| showing a sudden jump from the conventional tri-polar AO/NAO to an unprecedented dipolar leading pattern| following accelerated northeastward shifts of the AO/NAO centers of action. These shifts provide an accelerating impetus for the recent rapid Arctic climate system changes| perhaps shedding light on recent arguments about a tipping point of global-warming-forced climate change in the Arctic. The radical spatial shift is a precursor to the observed extreme change event| demonstrating skilful information for future prediction. Citation: Zhang| X.| A. Sorteberg| J. Zhang| R. Gerdes| and J. C. Comiso (2008)| Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 35| L22701| doi: 10.1029/2008GL035607. 8555,2008,2,4,Recent trends in the seasonal and temporal behaviour of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation,Trends in the seasonal and temporal behaviour of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation over the period 1958-2007 have been assessed using two indices of the phenomenon| NINO3.4 and a non-standardised Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). There is no evidence of trends in the variability or the persistence of the indices| nor in their seasonal patterns. There is a trend towards what might be considered more "El Nino-like'' behaviour in the SOI (and more weakly in NINO3.4)| but only through the period March-September and not in November-February| the season when El Nino and La Nina events typically peak. The trend in the SOI reflects only a trend in Darwin pressures| with no trend in Tahiti pressures. Apart from this trend| the temporal/seasonal nature of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation has been remarkably consistent through a period of strong global warming. 1288,2008,2,4,Recent water level declines in the Lake Michigan-Huron system,Great Lakes water levels have fluctuated over thousands of years. High water levels were a problem in the 1980s| but a recent sudden drop in Lakes Michigan and Huron has caused particular concern| in part because lower water levels are consistent with many global climate change scenarios. We examined water level data (1860-2006) representing Lakes Michigan and Huron to evaluate changes in both long-term and seasonal patterns over time| and explore relationships with candidate predictor variables. Our tools for this analysis included both Seasonal Trend decomposition using Loess (STL)| and dynamic linear models (DLM). In addition to the recent decline| STL results reveal a sustained decline around 1900| a long-term periodicity of similar to 30 years| and an unexpected correspondence with sunspot activity. DLM results indicate a relationship with precipitation over a three-year lagged period| which has been essentially unchanging from 1900 to present. Additionally| the DLM highlights an underlying lake level decline beginning in 1973 and continuing to the present| which may have been obscured by concurrently increasing precipitation into the 1990s. The current underlying decline might be related to a simultaneous evaporation increase| however| our model could not confirm this relationship| possibly due to the shorter period of record for evaporation data. We cannot be certain that the present observed water level drop is caused by factors related to global climate change| or that it portends a long-term problem. However| because the underlying decline has been ongoing for similar to 33 years it may be prudent to include lower lake levels in future management planning. 9231,2008,2,4,Recurrent soil freeze-thaw cycles enhance grassland productivity,Ongoing global warming will increase the frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) in cool-temperate and other high-latitude regions. The spatial relevance of seasonally frozen ground amounts to c. 55% of the total land area of the northern hemisphere. Evidence suggests that FTCs contribute to nutrient dynamics. Knowledge of their effects on plant communities is scarce| although plants may be the decisive factor in controlling ecosystem functions such as nutrient retention. Here| the effects are analysed of five additional FTCs in winter for the above- and below-ground productivity of experimental grassland communities and soil enzymatic activity over the following growing season. Freeze-thaw cycles increased the above-ground productivity but reduced root length over the whole subsequent growing season. In summer| no changes in soil enzymatic activities representing the carbon| nitrogen and phosphorus cycles were observed in the FTC-manipulated plots| except for an increased cellobiohydrolase activity. Changes in productivity resulting in an increased shoot-to-root ratio and shifts in timing are capable of altering ecosystem stability and ecosystem services| such as productivity and nutrient retention. 9166,2008,3,3,Redirecting rumen fermentation to reduce methanogenesis,Methane production in ruminants has received global attention in relation to its contribution to the greenhouse gas effect and global warming. In the last two decades| research programs in Europe| Oceania and North America have explored a variety of approaches to redirecting reducing equivalents towards other reductive substrates as a means of decreasing methane production in ruminants. Some approaches such as vaccination| biocontrols (bacteriophage| bacteriocins) and chemical inhibitors directly target methanogens. Other approaches| such as defaunation| diet manipulations including various plant extracts or organic acids| and promotion of acetogenic populations| seek to lower the supply of metabolic hydrogen to methanogens. The microbial ecology of the rumen ecosystem is exceedingly complex and the ability of this system to efficiently convert complex carbohydrates to fermentable sugars is in part due to the effective disposal of H-2 through reduction of CO2 to methane by methanogens. Although methane production can be inhibited for short periods| the ecology of the system is such that it frequently reverts back to initial levels of methane production though a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Hydrogen flow in the rumen can be modelled stoichiometrically| but accounting for H-2 by direct measurement of reduced substrates often does not concur with the predictions of stoichiometric models. Clearly| substantial gaps remain in our knowledge of the intricacies of hydrogen flow within the ruminal ecosystem. Further characterisation of the fundamental microbial biochemistry of hydrogen generation and methane production in the rumen may provide insight for development of effective strategies for reducing methane emissions from ruminants. 8680,2008,3,3,Regional climate responses to geoengineering with tropical and Arctic SO(2) injections,Anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol production| so as to reduce solar insolation and cool Earth| has been suggested as an emergency response to geoengineer the planet in response to global warming. While volcanic eruptions have been suggested as innocuous examples of stratospheric aerosols cooling the planet| the volcano analog actually argues against geoengineering because of ozone depletion and regional hydrologic and temperature responses. To further investigate the climate response| here we simulate the climate response to both tropical and Arctic stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol precursors using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean general circulation model| the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. We inject SO(2) and the model converts it to sulfate aerosols| transports the aerosols and removes them through dry and wet deposition| and calculates the climate response to the radiative forcing from the aerosols. We conduct simulations of future climate with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B business-as-usual scenario both with and without geoengineering and compare the results. We find that if there were a way to continuously inject SO(2) into the lower stratosphere| it would produce global cooling. Tropical SO(2) injection would produce sustained cooling over most of the world| with more cooling over continents. Arctic SO(2) injection would not just cool the Arctic. Both tropical and Arctic SO(2) injection would disrupt the Asian and African summer monsoons| reducing precipitation to the food supply for billions of people. These regional climate anomalies are but one of many reasons that argue against the implementation of this kind of geoengineering. 1277,2008,3,3,Regional CO2 budget| countermeasures and reduction aims for the Alpine tourist region of Davos| Switzerland,In its latest report| the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that global climate change can still be slowed down if greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly and strongly reduced. We present a detailed regional CO2 budget for the Alpine tourist region of Davos| Switzerland| including emissions and potential sinks. The aim of the study was (1) to estimate the most important CO2 sources and sinks| (2) to identify the most efficient reduction measures and (3) to assess the feasibility of different reduction targets. The results show that the emissions due to heating contribute to a proportion of 86.3% to the total budget| which is mainly due to the harsh local climate and the tourism-focused local economy. They also show that the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in Davos exceed the Swiss average of 6 tonnes by 25%. The augmentation of the carbon pool through the natural environment compares to 10.3% of the total emissions| and further afforestation of the community forest can contribute to an improvement of the total budget by 2.6%. The reduction aim of -15% until 2015 (compared with 2004)| as set by the municipality itself| could be easily reached through better building insulation and the use of renewable energy sources. More ambitious aims| such as a 2000 W-society or CO2 neutrality| however| will not be realised without major drawbacks in living standards. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1193,2008,5,4,Regulation of the monsoon climate by two different orbital rhythms and forcing mechanisms,The East Asian monsoon is responsible for transferring huge amounts of heat and moisture between the land and the adjacent ocean. Significant changes in its capacity to do this will have direct impacts on regional climatic gradients and global atmospheric circulation. Determining the mechanisms that force long-term variation in monsoon behavior is therefore important for understanding global climate change. Competing theories vary in the degree of importance attached to glacial forcing| other orbital rhythms| and internal feedback mechanisms as primary drivers of change. There is| however| no convincing explanation as to why different proxy records from closely neighboring regions are tuned to different orbital rhythms. Here we present quantitative climatic reconstructions for the past 450 k.y. based on a long pollen record from Lake Biwa in Japan. The data suggest that continental and oceanic air mass temperatures respond predominantly to the 100 k.y. orbital rhythm| whereas the land-ocean temperature gradient and monsoon vigor oscillate mainly at the 23 k.y. insollation cycle. We suggest that the mechanisms for this behavior lie in the differential response of land and ocean to solar forcing| and conclude that the 100 k.y. signal dominates monsoon intensity only when the amplitude of solar forcing falls below a threshold level. 8828,2008,4,3,Relation between temperature sensitivity to doubled carbon dioxide and the distribution of clouds in current climate models,The paper considers a relation between equilibrium global warming at doubled carbon dioxide (climate sensitivity) and the distribution of clouds and relative humidity in 18 state-of-the-art climate models. There is a strong correlation among three indices: (1) model climate sensitivity| (2) mean cloud amount change due to global warming| and (3) the difference in cloud amount between the tropics and midlatitudes. In the simulation of the present-day current| models with high sensitivity produce smaller clouds amounts in the tropics and larger cloud amounts over midlatitude oceans than models with low sensitivity. The relative humidity in the tropics is smaller in models with high sensitivity than in models with low sensitivity. There is a similarity between vertical profiles of cloud amount and relative humidity under global warming and vertical profiles of the difference in these quantities averaged over the tropics and midlatitudes. Based on the correlations obtained and observations of cloud amount and relative humidity| an estimate is made of the sensitivity of a real climate system. 8653,2008,5,4,Relationship of floodplain ichnocoenoses to paleopedology| paleohydrology| and paleoclimate in the Willwood Formation| Wyoming| during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,Vertical changes in distribution| abundance| and ichnodiversity of ichnocoenoses in alluvial deposits of the Willwood Formation suggest significantly drier moisture regimes in the Bighorn Basin| Wyoming| during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)| a transient period of global warming. The Willwood Formation at Polecat Bench contains an abundant assemblage of ichnofossils| including various types of rhizoliths and invertebrate trace fossils| such as Naktodemasis bowni. Camborygma litonomos| Edaphichnium lumbricatum| cf. Cylindricum isp.| cf. Planolites isp.. cf. Steinichnus| and cocoon traces. These comprise six distinct ichnocoenoses| which are categorized as dominantly terraphilic| hygrophilic| or hydrophilic based on the inferred moisture regimes of their most abundant ichnofossil morphotypes and associated pedogenic features| including other trace fossils and rhizoliths. The interpreted moisture regimes correlate well with the paleoenvironments of their host lithofacies| as inferred front sedimentology and paleopedology. Outside the PETM interval at Polecat Bench| abundant avulsion deposits and thin| compound paleosols containing hygrophilic and hydrophilic ichnocoenoses suggest frequent depositional events and predominantly poor to imperfect soil-drainage conditions. Within the PETM interval| thick| cumulative paleosol profiles with abundant terraphilic to hygrophilic ichnocoenoses suggest significantly improved drainage conditions. Lithofacies and ichnocoenoses above the PETM interval are not significantly different from those below the interval| indicating a return to pre-PETM moisture regimes. These conclusions support previous studies that suggest the Bighorn Basin experienced transient drying during this interval. This studs| demonstrates that ichnocoenoses and their ichnopedologic associations can be used to refine paleohydrologic and paleoclimatic generalizations inferred from paleoclimate models. 8628,2008,4,4,Relationships between forest fine and coarse woody debris carbon stocks across latitudinal gradients in the United States as an indicator of climate change effects,Coarse and fine woody materials (CWD and FWD) are substantial forest ecosystem carbon (C) stocks. There is a lack of understanding how these detritus C stocks may respond to climate change. This study used a nation-wide inventory of CWD and FWD in the United States to examine how these C stocks vary by latitude. Results indicate that the highest CWD and FWD C stocks are found in forests with the highest latitude| while conversely the lowest C stocks are found in the most southerly forests. CWD and FWD respond differently to changes in latitude with CWD C stocks decreasing more rapidly as latitude decreased. if latitude can be broadly assumed to indicate temperature and potential rate of detrital decay| it may be postulated that CWD C stocks may be at the highest risk of becoming a net C source if temperatures increase. The latitude at which CWD and FWD C stocks roughly equal each other (equilibrium point) may serve as an indicator of changes in C stock equilibrium under a global warming scenario. Given the complex relationships between detrital C stocks| biomass production/decay| and climatic variables| further research is suggested to refine this study's indicator. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 8968,2008,2,3,Relative roles of climate sensitivity and forcing in defining the ocean circulation response to climate change,The response of the ocean's meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity| including a dynamic 3-D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO(2) forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model's climate sensitivity. In this model| the cessation of deep sinking in the north "Atlantic" (hereinafter| a "collapse")| as indicated by changes in the MOC| behaves like a simple bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change| which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity| determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function of the forcing increase| with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly| high CO(2)-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization| whereas low CO(2)-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine how the rate of forcing| for a given CO(2) stabilization| affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models| we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios| the forcing rate has little impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range| however| forcing increases on a time scale of slow ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise collapse. 9179,2008,2,4,Reproducibility of Maximum Daily Precipitation Amount over Japan by a High-resolution Non-hydrostatic Model,In order to study changes in the regional climate in the vicinity of Japan during the summer rainy season due to global warming| preliminary experiments by a semi-cloud resolving non-hydrostatic model with a horizontal resolution of 5 km (NHM-5km) are conducted from June to October between 2002 and 2006 using 20-km horizontal grid operational regional analysis data of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as the initial and boundary conditions. The total precipitation amount and appearance frequency for daily precipitation amount simulated by the NHM-5km show notable agreement with those of the surface observation data of Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) of JMA. The temporal and spatial characteristics of maximum daily precipitation amounts (MDPs) from June to October also agree well with the observational results. The regional largest values among MDPs (R-MDPs) for 6 regions of the Japanese Islands are also estimated for the simulation results of the nearest grid points for each AMeDAS station and the AMeDAS observations. Those comparisons conclude the high performance of the NHM-5km for the reproducibility of MDPs and R-MDPs| which are highly related to extreme events. 1243,2008,2,4,Reproductive potential of a marine ecosystem engineer at the edge of a newly expanded range,Global climate change is leading to redistribution of marine species and altering ecosystem dynamics. Given recent poleward range extension of the barrens-forming sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii (Diadematidae) from mainland Australia to Tasmania| there is a need to understand the population dynamics of this ecologically important species in the Tasmanian environment. This paper informs possible population dynamics of C. rodgersii in Tasmania by examining its reproductive ecology in this new environment. Reproductive periodicity (gonad index and propensity to spawn) was assessed bimonthly over 18 months at four sites in eastern Tasmania spanning similar to 2 degrees in latitude. At all sites| C. rodgersii displayed a strong seasonal cycle in gonad production with major spawning occurring in winter (similar to August) at minimum annual water temperature. Gametes from Tasmanian C. rodgersii were viable as determined by fertilization and early development trials. However| development to the two-arm stage at similar to 3 weeks was strongly dependent on water temperature across the 8-20 degrees C temperature range| with poor development occurring below 12 degrees C. The range of temperatures tolerated by Tasmanian C. rodgersii larvae was similar to that of larvae from its native New South Wales range| indicating that this species has not undergone an adaptive shift to the cooler Tasmanian environment. There was also no evidence for an adaptive shift in reproductive phenology. Importantly| coastal water temperatures in eastern Tasmania during the peak spawning in August fluctuate about the 12 degrees C larval development threshold. Recent warming of the eastern Tasmanian coast and further warming predicted by global climate change will result in an environment increasingly favourable for the reproduction and development of C. rodgersii. 1158,2008,4,4,Resolving systematic errors in estimates of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 and ecosystem respiration in a tropical forest biome,The controls on uptake and release Of CO2 by tropical rainforests| and the responses to a changing climate| are major uncertainties in global climate change models. Eddy-covariance measurements potentially provide detailed data on CO2 exchange and responses to the environment in these forests| but accurate estimates of the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) and ecosystem respiration (R-eco) require careful analysis of data representativity| treatment of data gaps| and correction for systematic errors. This study uses the comprehensive data from our study site in an old-growth tropical rainforest near Santarem| Brazil| to examine the biases in NEE and R-eco potentially associated with the two most important sources of systematic error in Eddy-covariance data: lost nighttime flux and missing canopy storage measurements. We present multiple estimates for the net carbon balance and Reco at our site| including the conventional "u* filter"| a detailed bottom-up budget for respiration| estimates by similarity with Rn-122| and an independent estimate of respiration by extrapolation of daytime Eddy flux data to zero light. Eddy-covariance measurements between 2002 and 2006 showed a mean net ecosystem carbon loss of 0.25 +/- 0.04 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)| with a mean respiration rate of 8.60 +/- 10.11 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) at our site. We found that lost nocturnal flux can potentially introduce significant bias into these results. We develop robust approaches to correct for these biases| showing that| where appropriate| a site-specific u* threshold can be used to avoid systematic bias in estimates of carbon exchange. Because of the presence of gaps in the data and the day-night asymmetry between storage and turbulence| inclusion of canopy storage is essential to accurate assessments of NEE. We found that short-terrn measurements of storage may be adequate to accurately model storage for use in obtaining ecosystem carbon balance| at sites where storage is not routinely measured. The analytical framework utilized in this study can be applied to other Eddy-covariance sites to help correct and validate measurements of the carbon cycle and its components. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8536,2008,2,5,Resonance and sea level variability in Chesapeake Bay,A numerical model is used to determine the resonant period and quality factor Q of Chesapeake Bay and explore physical mechanisms controlling the resonance response in semi-enclosed seas. At the resonant period of 2 days| the mouth-to-head amplitude gain is 1.42 and Q is 0.9| indicating that Chesapeake Bay is a highly dissipative system. The modest amplitude gain results from strong frictional dissipation in shallow water. It is found that the spatial distribution of energy dissipation varies with forcing frequency. While energy at tidal frequencies is dissipated around topographic hotspots distributed throughout the Bay| energy dissipation at subtidal frequencies is mainly concentrated in the shallow-water lower Bay. An analytic calculation shows that the bottom friction parameter is much larger in Chesapeake Bay than in other coastal systems with strong resonance response. The model-predicted amplitude gains and phase changes agree well with the observations at semidiurnal and diurnal tidal frequencies. However| the predicted amplitude gain in the resonant frequency band (34-54 h period) falls below that inferred from band-passed sea level observations. This discrepancy can be attributed to the local wind forcing which amplifies the sea level response in the upper Bay. The model is also used to show that rising sea levels associated with global warming will shift the resonance period of Chesapeake Bay closer to the diurnal tides and thus exacerbate flooding problems by causing an increase in tidal ranges. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1215,2008,2,2,Response in extremes of daily precipitation and wind from a downscaled multi-model ensemble of anthropogenic global climate change scenarios,Time-slices of eight global climate model (GCM) response simulations of the IPCC IS92a| CMIP2| SRES A2| B2 and A1B greenhouse gas scenarios have been downscaled using the HIRHAM atmospheric regional climate model (RCM). The area covers Central and Northern Europe| adjacent sea-areas and Greenland. The GCM data were provided from the Max Planck Institute| Germany (MPI)| the Hadley Centre| U.K. (HC)| the Bjerknes Centre| Norway (BCCR) and University of Oslo| Norway (UiO). The resulting ensemble covers a range of future climate realizations from different global models| different greenhouse gas scenarios and natural climate variability. In order to present trends in statistical parameters including extreme events and their return periods| the downscaled response data are combined as an ensemble of equally valid possible realizations. The combined statistics is obtained after adjustments accounting for (i) different set-ups of the respective GCMs in producing the control climate and (ii) the variable range of time between the control and scenario periods. We find that annual extreme events of daily precipitation and wind speed in the control climate become more frequent in the scenario period over large areas in Northern Europe. The variability in the regional result appears sensitive to the phase of the Scandinavian pattern. 8558,2008,5,4,Response of calcareous nannofossils to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: Observations on composition| preservation and calcification in sediments from ODP Site 1263 (Walvis Ridge - SW Atlantic),In this study we present the results of a detailed analysis on calcareous nannofossil assemblages from sediment cores of ODP Site 1263 (Southern East Atlantic| Walvis Ridge). This section represents one of the few complete deep-sea sections that document the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) in the pelagic realm. The PETM transient event was characterized by a brief| but intense interval of global warming| a global negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE)| and widespread dissolution of seafloor carbonate sediments. Paired analysis at polarizing light microscope (LM) and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) documents the different "behavior" of nannofossils through the different phases of the PETM| at the onset of CIE| within the CIE| and during the recovery interval. The presence of anomalous specimens and morphotypes within some nannofossil taxa| recorded during previous LM high resolution analyses| has been further investigated in selected samples at the SEM. Besides the known representatives of the CIE-PETM "excursion nanno-flora"| as Rhomboaster calcitrapa group and Discoaster anartios| the analysis revealed the presence of peculiar morphotypes of Fasciculithus and deformed specimens of Discoaster nobilis group| Discoaster mediosus and Discoaster multiradiatus that are considered related to the anomalous amount of CO2 in the ocean-atmosphere system during the early phase of PETM. Comparative analyses were performed in few selected samples from other PETM sections located at different latitudes in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Although the anomalous geochemical conditions during the PETM-CIE interval seem to have had some influence on the nannofossil production| calcification and assemblage composition| it results that local productivity together with post depositional (diagenetic) conditions were additional important controlling factors on nannofossil assemblages. Preliminary data from Paleocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2 or Elmo) suggest that nannofossil malformations are not exclusive of the PETM| and are associated to other episodes of perturbation of the C cycle. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1150,2008,2,4,Response of land accretion of the Yellow River delta to global climate change and human activity,In the past 50 years| influenced by global climate change| the Eastern Asian summer monsoon intensity (SMI) changed significantly| and that has led to some response in the water cycle system of the Yellow River basin and in the land accretion process of the delta. The variation in annual precipitation is synchronic with that in SMI. From 1950 to 1970| annual air temperature showed a slight decrease with large fluctuations. Since 1970| a significant increasing trend can be seen. Climate change may result in a change in sediment flux into the sea| and therefore in a change in the rate of land accretion of delta (R-1a). The annual R-1a and sediment flux into the sea showed an increasing trend from 1952 to 1964| but a decreasing trend after 1964| which is similar to that in the SMI. Human activity such as soil conservation measures and water division also has some effect on land accretion of the delta. A multiple regression analysis indicates that the R-a1 decreased with decrease in summer monsoon index (SMI)| increase in annual temperature (T)| the increase in the area of water and soil conservation measures (A(tfg)) and an increase in water diversion (Q(w|div)). The contribution of the variations in the variables to the variation in R-1a was estimated as 34.94%| 3.80%| 53.82% and 7.44%| respectively. The contribution of the two climate factors totals 38.7%| indicating that the influence of global climate change on the variation in land accretion of Yellow River delta is significant. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 8669,2008,2,4,Response of larch species to climate changes,Global warming has changed the distributions of forests of northeastern China. Larix are very important species in this area. Predicting the potential distributions of Larix species and their responses to climate change would attract more and more attention. This paper predicted the potential distributions of three Larix species based on 'climatic-topographic| relationships by logistic regression The results showed that L. gmelinii is predicted to retreat northwest-ward by 220 km by 2050 and by 270 km more by 2100; L. olgensis var. changpaiensis is predicted to retreat northwestward by 200 km by 2050 and by 190 to 300 km more by 2100; L. principis-rupprechtii is predicted to retreat northeastward by 200 km by 2050 km by 250 to 400 km more by 2100. This indicated that L. gmelinii could have ita optimum latitude moved into Russia| L. olgensis var. changpaiensis could move to the small Xing'an Mountains and L. principis-rupprechtii would move to the middle part of the Great Xing'an Mountains.
8986,2008,2,4,Response of soil surface CO2 flux in a boreal forest to ecosystem warming,Soil surface carbon dioxide (CO2) flux (R-S) was measured for 2 years at the Boreal Soil and Air Warming Experiment site near Thompson| MB| Canada. The experimental design was a complete random block design that consisted of four replicate blocks| with each block containing a 15 m x 15 m control and heated plot. Black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] was the overstory species and Epilobium angustifolium was the dominant understory. Soil temperature was maintained (similar to 5 degrees C) above the control soil temperature using electric cables inside water filled polyethylene tubing for each heated plot. Air inside a 7.3-m-diameter chamber| centered in the soil warming plot| contained approximately nine black spruce trees was heated similar to 5 degrees C above control ambient air temperature allowing for the testing of soil-only warming and soil+air warming. Soil surface CO2 flux (R-S) was positively correlated (P < 0.0001) to soil temperature at 10 cm depth. Soil surface CO2 flux (R-S) was 24% greater in the soil-only warming than the control in 2004| but was only 11% greater in 2005| while R-S in the soil+air warming treatments was 31% less than the control in 2004 and 23% less in 2005. Live fine root mass (< 2 mm diameter) was less in the heated than control treatments in 2004 and statistically less (P < 0.01) in 2005. Similar root mass between the two heated treatments suggests that different heating methods (soil-only vs. soil+air warming) can affect the rate of decomposition. 8507,2008,2,4,Response of the tropical Pacific to changes in extratropical clouds,A decrease in cloud cover over higher latitudes-a decrease in the extratropical albedo-especially over the Southern Ocean| can result in an extratropical and tropical warming with the intensity of the equatorial cold tongues in the Pacific and Atlantic basins decreasing. These results| obtained by means of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity that allow the prescription of atmospheric cloud cover| are relevant to future global warming| and also to conditions during the Pliocene some 3 million years ago. The mechanisms responsible for the response of the tropics to changes in the extra-tropics include atmospheric and oceanic connections. This tropical adjustment can be interpreted from the constraint of a balanced heat budget for the ocean: A change in the albedo of the Southern Hemisphere causes the ocean to lose less heat there| so that it has to gain less heat in the tropics. As a consequence the cold tongues are reduced| particularly in the eastern Pacific where a decrease in the zonal tilt of the equatorial thermocline significantly weakens the east-west sea surface temperature gradient. The total adjustment time scale of the equatorial Pacific to the extratropical perturbation is of the order of interdecadal to centennial time scales| and thus represents a new mechanism of rapid climate change. 8471,2008,2,3,Response of the Zonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation to El Nino versus Global Warming,The change in the zonal mean atmospheric circulation under global warming is studied in comparison with the response to El Nino forcing| by examining the model simulations conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In contrast to the strengthening and contraction of the Hadley cell and the equatorward shift of the tropospheric zonal jets in response to El Nino| the Hadley cell weakens and expands poleward| and the jets move poleward in a warmed climate| despite the projected "El Nino-like" enhanced warming over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. The hydrological impacts of global warming also exhibit distinct patterns over the subtropics and midlatitudes in comparison to the El Nino. Two feasible mechanisms are proposed for the zonal mean circulation response to global warming: 1) The increase in static stability of the subtropical and midlatitude troposphere| a robust result of the quasi-moist adiabatic adjustment to the surface warming| may stabilize the baroclinic eddy growth on the equatorward side of the storm tracks and push the eddy activity and the associated eddy-driven wind and subsidence poleward| leading to the poleward expansion of the Hadley cell and the shift of midlatitude jets; 2) the strengthening of the midlatitude wind at the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere| arguably a consequence of increases in the meridional temperature gradient near the tropopause level due to the tropospheric warming and tropopause slope| may increase the eastward propagation of the eddies emanating from the midlatitudes| and thus the subtropical region of wave breaking displaces poleward together with the eddy-driven circulation. Both mechanisms are somewhat| if not completely| distinct from those in response to the El Nino condition. 9184,2008,2,4,Responses of reef fish communities to coral declines on the Great Barrier Reef,The functional roles of certain reef fishes are considered to facilitate recovery of reef ecosystems following coral mortality. Maintenance of high fish species diversity and associated functional diversity are thought to represent an 'ecological insurance' against ecosystem degradation. We examined responses of reef fish communities to varied levels of coral decline on 22 individual reefs of the Great Barrier Reef over an 11 yr period. Using 7 measures of species diversity| we found that fish diversity rarely decreased due to coral declines| even on 7 reefs that suffered massive coral losses (cover decreased by > 75%). However| maintenance of fish diversity on those 7 reefs belied major changes in fish communities that involved increases in abundance of large herbivores and decreases in abundance of both coral-dependent fishes and species with no obvious dependence on coral| The magnitude of change in species abundances increased linearly with the magnitude of coral decline. While the proportion of species that increased or decreased in abundance varied considerably among reefs| 45 to 71 % of fish species decreased in abundance on some reefs. Ecological function is related to abundance| so such decreases are likely to indicate reduced ecosystem function. Our results suggest that: (1) reef fish diversity may not be a reliable indicator of reef resilience and (2) predicted declines in coral cover due to global warming are likely to cause changes in the structure of reef fish communities| but the nature of these changes and associated capacity of reef fishes to assist ecosystem recovery will vary among reefs. 1333,2008,3,4,Restoration of a shallow Mediterranean Lake by biomanipulation complicated by drought,Whether fish biomanipulation is an efficient restoration technique in eutrophic warm sub/tropical lakes has been subject to recent debate. Our investigations undertaken in warm Lake Eymir| Turkey show that fish removal increased water clarity during a five-year period. Rapid re-colonisation of submerged plants| Potamogeton pectinatus and Ceratophyllum demersum| occurred. This recovery was achieved at higher total phosphorus (TP) levels than the suggested threshold for stability| probably owing to the nitrogen-limited condition of the lake. Re-establishment of vegetation coincided with significantly reduced concentrations of TP and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN). Abundance of the large-bodied Daphnia pulex was low and it later disappeared completely from the zooplankton community| probably due to increased fish predation. A severe drought| occurring two years after the fish removal| significantly lowered the water level| increased the hydraulic residence time and caused an expansion of the vegetation. The drought was also associated with a significant increase in salinity| conductivity| nutrient concentrations JP and DIN) and in the abundance of Arctodiaptomus bacillifer. The in-lake nutrient amounts became more dependent on internal processes rather than on the external loading| which was very low during the drought period. When the water level rose to normal values| the concentrations of TP and soluble reactive phosphate (SRP) decreased. However| the DIN concentration significantly increased due to slowed denitrification processes in consequence of the low availability of dissolved oxygen. This increase in ammonium concentrations may have contributed to the instability of clear-water conditions by releasing the lake from its former nitrogen-limited state| since the TP levels in the lake had already surpassed critical levels. Along with this| tench (Tinca tinca) biomass increased to pre-biomanipulation levels and the pike (Esox lucius) to planktivorous fish ratio decreased with increased chlorophyll-a concentrations| largely by inedible cyanobacteria| which led to a decline in summer water clarity but not to disappearance of submerged plants. The early growth of plants was probably controlled by the spring water clarity| which remained high| and the lake maintained its macrophyte-dominated state| despite the relatively turbid conditions prevailing in summer. The highly positive effect of the Lake Eymir restoration effort contradicts the experiences from other subtropical lakes. This could be due to the fact that warm Lake Eymir being at high latitude with a strong presence of predatory fish and limited abundance of planktivorous fish species| as opposed to low altitude warm lakes. However| drought as an inherent feature of the and region may be even more important in the future as drier conditions are predicted for the Mediterranean region in consequence of the global climate change. 8645,2008,3,3,Rethinking downstream regulation: California's opportunity to engage households in reducing greenhouse gases,With the passage of the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB32)| California has begun an ambitious journey to reduce in-state GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. Under the direction of executive order S-20-06| a mandated Market Advisory Committee (MAC) charged with studying market-based mechanisms to reduce GHG emissions. including cap and trade systems| has recommended taking an "upstream" approach to GHG emissions regulation| arguing that upstream regulation will reduce administrative costs because there are fewer agents. In this paper| we argue that| the total costs to society of a GHG cap and trade scheme can be minimized though downstream regulation| rather than the widely proposed upstream approach. We propose a household carbon trading system with four major components: a state allocation to households| household-to-household trading| households to utility company credit transfers| and utility companies to government credit transfers. The proposed system can also be considered more equitable than carbon taxes and upstream cap and trade systems to control GHG emissions from residential energy use and is consistent with AB32. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1329,2008,4,4,Retrieval of Liquid Water Path Inside Nonprecipitating Clouds Using TMI Measurements,Quantitative estimates of liquid water path (LWP) in clouds using satellite measurements are critical to understanding of cloud properties and the assessment of global climate change. In this paper| the relationship between microwave brightness temperature (TB) and LWP in the nonprecipitating clouds is studied by using satellite microwave measurements from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)| together with a radiative transfer model for microwave radiance calculations. Radiative transfer modeling shows that the sensitivity is higher at both 37.0- and 85.5-GHz horizontal polarization channels for the LWP retrievals. Also| the differences between the retrieved values responding to TBs of various channels and the theoretical values are displayed by the model| Based upon above simulations| with taking into account the factor of resolution and retrieval bias for a single|channel| a| nonprecipitating cloud LWP in the summer subtropical marine environment retrieval algorithm is formulated by the combination of the two TMI horizontal polarization channels| 37.0 and 85.5 GHz. Moreover| by using TMI measurements (1B11)| this algorithm is applied to retrieving respectively LWPs for clear sky| nonprecipitating clouds| and typhoon precipitating clouds. In the clear sky case| the LWP changes from -1 to 1 g m(-2)| and its mean value is about 10(-5) g m(-2). It indicates that| using this combination retrieval algorithm| there are no obvious systemic deviations when the LWP is low enough. The LWP values varying from 0 to 1000 g m(-2) in nonprecipitating clouds are reasonable| and its distribution pattern is very similar to the detected results in the visible channel of Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) on the TRMM. In typhoon precipitating clouds| there is much more proportion of high LWP in the mature phase than the early stage. When surface rainfall rate is lower than 5 mm h(-1)| the LWP increases with increasing rainfall rate. 9100,2008,3,4,Revising a process-based biogeochemistry model (DNDC) to simulate methane emission from rice paddy fields under various residue management and fertilizer regimes,A comprehensive biogeochemistry model| DNDC| was revised to simulate crop growth and soil processes more explicitly and improve its ability to estimate methane (CH(4)) emission from rice paddy fields under a wide range of climatic and agronomic conditions. The revised model simulates rice growth by tracking photosynthesis| respiration| C allocation| tillering| and release of organic C and O(2) from roots. For anaerobic soil processes| it quantifies the production of electron donors [H(2) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC)] by decomposition and rice root exudation| and simulates CH(4) production and other reductive reactions based on the availability of electron donors and acceptors (NO(3)(-)| Mn(4)(+)| Fe(3)(+)| and SO(4)(2-)). Methane emission through rice is simulated by a diffusion routine based on the conductance of tillers and the CH(4) concentration in soil water. The revised DNDC was tested against observations at three rice paddy sites in Japan and China with varying rice residue management and fertilization| and produced estimates consistent with observations for the variation in CH(4) emission as a function of residue management. It also successfully predicted the negative effect of (NH(4))(2)SO(4) on CH(4) emission| which the current model missed. Predicted CH(4) emission was highly sensitive to the content of reducible soil Fe(3+) which is the dominant electron acceptor in anaerobic soils. The revised DNDC generally gave acceptable predictions of seasonal CH(4) emission| but not of daily CH(4) fluxes| suggesting the model's immaturity in describing soil heterogeneity or rice cultivar-specific characteristics of CH(4) transport. It also overestimated CH(4) emission at one site in a year with low temperatures| suggesting uncertainty in root biomass estimates due to the model's failure to consider the temperature dependence of leaf area development. Nevertheless| the revised DNDC explicitly reflects the effects of soil electron donors and acceptors| and can be used to quantitatively estimate CH(4) emissions from rice fields under a range of conditions. 8889,2008,2,3,Rise and fall of jellyfish in the eastern Bering Sea in relation to climate regime shifts,A steep increase in jellyfish biomass| primarily Chrysaora melanaster| over the eastern Bering Sea shelf was documented throughout the 1990s. Their biomass peaked in summer 2000 and then declined precipitously| stabilizing at a moderate level after 2001. The onsets of the outburst and decline coincided with transitions between climatic regimes. Specifically| 1989 marked the beginning of a period of moderate temperatures in the eastern Bering Sea| after the warm conditions of the late 19705| through the 1980s. Very warm conditions came to the eastern Bering after 2000| as evidenced by decreased ice cover in winter and increased total heat content and surface water temperatures in summer. We examined the relationships between jellyfish biomass and temperature| ice cover| atmospheric variables| current patterns| zooplankton biomass| and associated fish biomass in two regions of the Middle Shelf Domain (SE and NW) by use of Generalized Additive Models (GAM). We found density-dependent interactions within and between jellyfish biomass in the two regions related to the flow regime| and demonstrated a linkage between biophysical indices and jellyfish biomass. In particular| ice cover (SE and NW)| sea-surface temperature in spring (SE) and summer (NW)| and wind mixing (SE) all influenced jellyfish biomass. In addition| the importance of juvenile pollock biomass (SE) and zooplankton biomass (NW) suggest that jellyfish biomass was sensitive to the availability of prey. Since most climate models suggest continued warming is likely in the Bering Sea| the jellyfish populations may remain at moderate levels there but will likely shift northward into the Arctic Ocean. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9077,2008,2,3,Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil,The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes ( races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella)| using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020' s| 2050' s| and 2080' s ( scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest| due to greater number of generations per month| than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961 - 1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario| but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms. 8515,2008,2,4,Risk effects in elk: sex-specific responses in grazing and browsing due to predation risk from wolves,Risk effects in ungulates are poorly understood but have recently been implicated as an important driver of elk (Cervus elaphus) population dynamics since wolves were reintroduced into the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of Montana and Wyoming| USA. From December to May in 2004| 2005| and 2006| we recorded the daily presence of wolves on 3 sites occupied by the Upper Gallatin elk population in the northwest corner of the GYE. We estimated the proportion of grasses| conifers| evergreen shrubs| and woody stems in 980 elk fecal samples collected from those 3 sites and tested whether wolf presence affected elk diets. The winter of 2005 was extremely mild allowing us the opportunity to investigate how elk-wolf interactions might change if winter snowpack continues to decline in western North America due to global warming. Snow accumulation consistently favored browsing| and diets during the mild winter were dominated by grass| very similar to the spring diet. In normal winters| adult males grazed less than adult females except when wolves were near because females decreased grazing in response to wolves. Adult males decreased browsing on conifers by half whereas adult females doubled conifer browsing on days when wolves were near. Overall| the sexes had different diets when wolves were absent but showed strong overlap when wolves were present. Diet shifts due to wolves may be causing trophic cascades that have gone unrecognized and probably carry nutritional consequences for wintering elk. 1255,2008,5,4,Rock and palaeomagnetic evidence for the Plio-Pleistocene palaeoctimatic change recorded in Upper Rhine Graben sediments (Core Ludwigshafen-Parkinsel),This paper summarizes results of magnetostratigraphic and rock magnetic investigations performed on fluvial sediments from the Ludwigshafen-Parkinsel drilling project (Upper Rhine Graben (URG) Germany). The drilling penetrated into Pleistocene gravel| sand| silt and clay| and unconsolidated Pliocene deposits. Its primary objective was the exploration of groundwater resources in the area of Ludwigshafen. Our rock magnetic investigations together with results of heavy mineral analyses (see Hagedorn & Boenigk| 2008) show a clearly structured sediment profile. It was possible to identify the change from mainly locally controlled sedimentation from the Graben margins to a more distinct Alpine controlled sedimentation at a depth of 177 m by magnetic data. Based on lithostratigraphic correlation with other sedimentary records from the URG and also based on palynological evidence| this event happened at the end of Late Pliocene during a time of normal polarity of the Earth's magnetic field (Gauss Chron?). The well-documented characteristic change in magneto-mineralogy from goethite to greigite almost at the same stratigraphic level| we interpret solely as a climatic signal which can be correlated with the global climate change at similar to 2.5 Ma that is well documented in a wide range of sedimentary environments (e.g. deep-sea sediments| loess). 8867,2008,2,4,Rock falls in high-alpine rock walls quantified by terrestrial lidar measurements: A case study in the Mont Blanc area,The global warming observed in recent decades and its future increase may affect permafrost distribution on high-mountain faces with consequences for their stability. In this paper| we show that rock falls from high-alpine rock walls can be computed with a decimetre-resolution using lidar measurements. A laser scanner was used to create point clouds and triangulated irregular network models on the east face of the Tour Ronde at 3792 m asl (Mont Blanc massif). Comparison of the models realised from measurements of July 2005 and July 2006 enabled quantification of rock falls with reduced uncertainty. The volume of rock fall reached a total of 536 m(3) in the scanned area| which matches an erosion rate of 8.4 mm yr(-1). This rate slightly higher to the ones reported in former studies enable to assume that this rock fall may be the consequence of the permafrost degradation in this rock face. 9200,2008,3,3,Role of crop residue management in sustainable agricultural development in the North China Plain,Crop residue| the largest product of agricultural harvests| contains large amounts of assimilated carbon (C) and nutrients such as nitrogen (N)| phosphorus (P)| and potassium (P); these elements must be recycled for the sustainable development of agriculture. Crop residue management should serve a double function| both confronting global warming and food security by increasing carbon sequestration in agriculture and increasing grain yields. Historically| the North China Plain has experienced different crop residue management practices. While direct burning in the field remains an environmental problem in the region| crop residue amendment triggers benign cycling of C and nutrients in agriculture. Data showed that soil organic carbon (SOC) in topsoil increased by 0.174 to 1.74 g kg(-1)| with an average of 0.79 g kg(-1) after wheat residue amendment collected from 35 sites in the North China Plain. The average increase in grain yield achieved by wheat residue amendment in the region is 260 kg ha(-1) year(-1) for wheat and 3 10 kg hal(-1) year(-1) for maize| for a total of 570 kg ha(-1) year(-1). At the same time| the available potassium (K2O)| the available phosphorus (P2O5)| and total nitrogen in soil increased| significantly or not. With the development of the economy| technology| and supporting policy| crop residue management can play an increasingly important role in sustainable agricultural development. 9158,2008,3,3,Role of nuclear energy in environment| economy and energy issues of the 21st century green house gas emission constraint effects,Role and potentials of nuclear energy system in the energy options are discussed from the viewpoint of sustainable development with protecting from global warming by using the energy module structure of GRAPE model. The analysis with respect to carbon emission control and nuclear fissile transaction among regions indicates the need of coordinated further developments of energy conservation| renewable and nuclear energies| and rather drastic nuclear introduction in the presently developing world. The analysis also suggests the need of long-term planning and R&D efforts under the wisdom. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1201,2008,2,4,Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America,Global climate change has already affected the abundances| range limits| and interactions of many species. The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae)| an invasive insect introduced to eastern North America from Japan| has decimated stands of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) and Carolina hemlock (T. caroliniana) from Georgia to Connecticut. However| its spread across central and northern New England has been slowed substantially by its inability to tolerate cold winter temperatures. Using data from previous lab and field studies collected over the past 17 years| including adelgid spread and overwintering mortality| we first characterize the temperature conditions that may limit adelgid spread. We then show how| in the future| rising winter temperatures due to climate change are likely to remove the conditions currently limiting adelgid spread| and facilitate the northward expansion as more suitable habitat becomes available. 1216,2008,2,3,Rubisco| Rubisco activase| and global climate change,Global warming and the rise in atmospheric CO(2) will increase the operating temperature of leaves in coming decades| often well above the thermal optimum for photosynthesis. Presently| there is controversy over the limiting processes controlling photosynthesis at elevated temperature. Leading models propose that the reduction in photosynthesis at elevated temperature is a function of either declining capacity of electron transport to regenerate RuBP| or reductions in the capacity of Rubisco activase to maintain Rubisco in an active configuration. Identifying which of these processes is the principal limitation at elevated temperature is complicated because each may be regulated in response to a limitation in the other. Biochemical and gas exchange assessments can disentangle these photosynthetic limitations; however| comprehensive assessments are often difficult and| for many species| virtually impossible. It is proposed that measurement of the initial slope of the CO(2) response of photosynthesis (the A/C(i) response) can be a useful means to screen for Rubisco activase limitations. This is because a reduction in the Rubisco activation state should be most apparent at low CO(2) when Rubisco capacity is generally limiting. In sweet potato| spinach| and tobacco| the initial slope of the A/C(i) response shows no evidence of activase limitations at high temperature| as the slope can be accurately modelled using the kinetic parameters of fully activated Rubisco. In black spruce (Picea mariana)| a reduction in the initial slope above 30 degrees C cannot be explained by the known kinetics of fully activated Rubisco| indicating that activase may be limiting at high temperatures. Because black spruce is the dominant species in the boreal forest of North America| Rubisco activase may be an unusually important factor determining the response of the boreal biome to climate change. 1325,2008,4,4,Satellite estimation of forest carbon using regression models,Periodic monitoring of forest carbon is important| since forest cover is changing rapidly in many parts of the world| and becomes a major source of terrestrial carbon emission that may be one of the main drivers of global climate change. Regression is often used to estimate forest variables (including carbon) using satellite sensor data though a low coefficient of determination (R 2) is apparent and this research was designed to investigate both traditional and alternate regression approaches to increase the magnitude of R 2. The study area was located in southeastern Bangladesh. Data from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and ground-based forest survey were used. This research explored the use of dummy variables in regression models to increase R 2| while the dummies were set from the optimal stratification of forestland. The finding will heighten the accuracy of forest attribute estimation and help to understand terrestrial carbon dynamics and global climate change. 1100,2008,4,4,Satellite monitoring of spatio-temporal dynamics of China's coastal zone eco-environments: preliminary analysis on the relationship between the environment| climate change and human behavior,In this paper| temporal dynamics of eco-environmental changes in coastal areas of China during 1981-2000 are investigated based on four key surface parameters including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)| thermal index| moisture index and surface broadband albedo derived from quantitative remote sensing techniques and meteorological data. Firstly| land surface temperature (LST) and land surface broadband albedo are retrieved by the split-window algorithms and high-order polynomial regression method| respectively| using NOAA/AVHRR series images. Then| moisture index and thermal index| indicators of climate and moisture conditions in the study area| are computed from meteorological data and LST using principal component analysis (PCA). Finally| long-term dynamics of these eco-environmental factors and the reasons responsible for these changes are analyzed further. The results show that during the years from 1981 to 2000| the study area experienced a gradual increase in annual NDVI and climate factors and a decrease in surface annual broadband albedo| which indicates that the coastal thermal and moisture conditions and the subsistence conditions of natural vegetation have changed to a considerable extent. According to the results| a warming and wetting tendency over the last two decades is obvious in the China's coastal zone that are mainly due to land use changes as of growing urbanization| exhaust emissions from industries and transportations and| partly global climate change. Uncontrolled rapid development of the study area may be blamed for these negative changes as a major driving force. The positive feedback mechanisms between albedo| NDVI and climate factors also partly explain these changes. This study suggests that the method integrating biophysical parameters retrieved from remote sensed images and meteorologic data provides a novel and feasible way to monitor large scale eco-environmental changes. 8616,2008,4,2,Satellite remote sounding of mid-tropospheric CO(2),Human activity has increased the concentration of the earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide| which plays a direct role in contributing to global warming. Mid-tropospheric CO(2) retrieved by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder shows a substantial spatiotemporal variability that is supported by in situ aircraft measurements. The distribution of middle tropospheric CO(2) is strongly influenced by surface sources and large-scale circulations such as the mid-latitude jet streams and by synoptic weather systems| most notably in the summer hemisphere. In addition| the effects of stratosphere-troposphere exchange are observed during a final stratospheric warming event. The results provide the means to understand the sources and sinks and the lifting of CO(2) from surface layers into the free troposphere and its subsequent transport around the globe. These processes are not adequately represented in three chemistry-transport models that have been used to study carbon budgets. 8993,2008,3,3,Saved?,Development of a system of compensation for reducing deforestation is the cheapest way of cutting global emissions. Following methods such as creating national parks| banning deforestation| and planting trees are useful for reducing global warming. 8587,2008,4,3,Scale mismatches and their ecological and economic effects on landscapes: A spatially explicit model,Mismatches between the spatial scales of human decision-making and natural processes contribute to environmental problems such as global warming and biodiversity losses. People damage the environment through local activities like clearing land or burning fossil fuels| but the damages only become manifest at larger regional or global scales where no one pays for them. Payments for ecological services like carbon sequestration can correct for these damages caused by scale mismatches. This paper presents a spatially explicit land-use model to investigate the consequences of scale mismatches for pollination and carbon storage services and examine the effect of payment for only carbon storage services. The model integrates processes in multiple spatial scales ranging from the parcel level used by landowners' decision about deforestation| to the larger scale used by animals to pollinate plants| and finally to the global scale where carbon storage services are supplied. We show that payment for carbon storage services can become an effective mechanism to protect forests at the same time that it creates inequities among landowners in income level. These findings suggest that market-based approaches that focus on conservation of a single ecosystem service may reproduce unequal power relations among landowners. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd| All rights reserved. 8429,2008,3,4,Scenario Modeling Potential Eco-Efficiency Gains from a Transition to Organic Agriculture: Life Cycle Perspectives on Canadian Canola| Corn| Soy| and Wheat Production,We used Life Cycle Assessment to scenario model the potential reductions in cumulative energy demand (both fossil and renewable) and global warming| acidifying| and ozone-depleting emissions associated with a hypothetical national transition from conventional to organic production of four major field crops [canola (Brassica rapa)| corn (Zea mays)| soy (Glycine max)| and wheat (Triticum aestivum)] in Canada. Models of these systems were constructed using a combination of census data| published values| and the requirements for organic production described in the Canadian National Organic Standards in order to be broadly representative of the similarities and differences that characterize these disparate production technologies. Our results indicate that organic crop production would consume| on average| 39% as much energy and generate 77% of the global warming emissions| 17% of the ozone-depleting emissions| and 96% of the acidifying emissions associated with current national production of these crops. These differences were almost exclusively due to the differences in fertilizers used in conventional and organic farming and were most strongly influenced by the higher cumulative energy demand and emissions associated with producing conventional nitrogen fertilizers compared to the green manure production used for biological nitrogen fixation in organic agriculture. Overall| we estimate that a total transition to organic production of these crops in Canada would reduce national energy consumption by 0.8%| global warming emissions by 0.6%| and acidifying emissions by 1.0% but have a negligible influence on reducing ozone-depleting emissions. 9029,2008,2,4,Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf,Seasonal ice cover creates a pool of cold bottom water on the eastern Bering Sea continental shelf each winter. The southern edge of this cold pool| which defines the ecotone between arctic and subarctic communities| has retreated; 230 km northward since the early 1980s. Bottom trawl surveys of fish and invertebrates in the southeastern Bering Sea (1982 2006) show a coincident reorganization in community composition by latitude. Survey catches show community-wide northward distribution shifts| and the area formerly covered by the cold pool has seen increases in total biomass| species richness| and average trophic level as subarctic fauna have colonized newly favorable habitats. Warming climate has immediate management implications| as 57% of variability in commercial snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) catch is explained by winter sea ice extent. Several measures of community distribution and structure show linear relationships with bottom temperature| suggesting warming climate as the primary cause of changing biogeography. However| residual variability in distribution not explained by climate shows a strong temporal trend| suggesting that internal community dynamics also contribute to changing biogeography. Variability among taxa in their response to temperature was not explained by commercial status or life history traits| suggesting that species-specific responses to future warming will be difficult to predict. 8639,2008,2,4,Sea Level Responses to Climatic Variability and Change in Northern British Columbia,Sea level responses to climatic variability (CV) and change (CC) signals at multiple temporal scales (interdecadal to monthly) are statistically examined using long-term water level records from Prince Rupert (PR) on the north coast of British Columbia. Analysis of observed sea level data from PR| the longest available record in the region| indicates an annual average mean sea level (MSL) trend of + 1.4+/-0.6 mm yr(-1) for the period (1939-2003)| as opposed to the longer term trend of 1+/-0.4 mm yr(-1) (1909-2003). This suggests a possible acceleration in MSL trends dring the latter half of the twentieth century. According to the results of this study| the causes behind this acceleration can be attributed not only to the effects of global warming but also to cyclic climate variability patterns such as the strong positive Pacific Decadal Ocsillation (PDO) phase that has been present since the mid-1970s. The linear regression model based on highest sea levels (MAXSL) of each calendar year showed a trend exceeding twice that (3.4 mm yr(-1)) of MSL. Previous work shows that the influence of vertical crustal motions on relative sea level are negligible at PR. Relations between sea levels and known CV indices (e.g.| the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)| PDO| Northern Oscillation Index (NOI)| and Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALPI)) are explored to identify potential controls of CV phenomena (e.g.| the EI Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| PDO) on regional MSL and MAXSL. Linear and non-linear statistical methods including correlation analyses| multiple regression| Cumulative Sum (CumSum) analysis| and Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) are used. Results suggest that ENSO forcing (as shown by the MEI and NOI indices) exerts significant influence on winter sea level fluctuations| while the PDO dominates summer sea level variability. The observational evidence at PR also shows that| during the period 1939-2003| these cyclic shorter temporal scale sea level fluctuations in response to CV were significantly greater than the longer term sea-level rise trend by as much as an order of magnitude and with trends over twice that of MSL. Such extreme sea level fluctuations related to CV events should be the immediate priority for the development of coastal adaptation strategies| as they are superimposed on long-term MSL trends| resulting in greater hazard than longer term MSL rise trends alone. 8488,2008,2,4,Sea Snakes (Laticauda spp.) Require Fresh Drinking Water: Implication for the Distribution and Persistence of Populations,Dehydration and procurement of water are key problems for vertebrates that have secondarily invaded marine environments. Sea snakes and other marine reptiles are thought to remain in water balance without consuming freshwater| owing to the ability of extrarenal salt glands to excrete excess salts obtained either from prey or from drinking seawater directly. Contrary to this long-standing dogma| we report that three species of sea snake actually dehydrate in marine environments. We investigated dehydration and drinking behaviors in three species of amphibious sea kraits (Laticauda spp.) representing a range of habits from semiterrestrial to very highly marine. Snakes that we dehydrated either in air or in seawater refused to drink seawater but drank freshwater or very dilute brackish water (10%-30% seawater) to remain in water balance. We further show that Laticauda spp. can dehydrate severely in the wild and are far more abundant at sites where there are sources of freshwater. A more global examination of all sea snakes demonstrates that species richness correlates positively with mean annual precipitation within the Indo-West Pacific tropical region. The dependence of Laticauda spp. on freshwater might explain the characteristically patchy distributions of these reptiles and is relevant to understanding patterns of extinctions and possible future responses to changes in precipitation related to global warming. In particular| metapopulation dynamics of the Laticauda group of sea snakes are expected to change in relation to projected reductions of tropical dry-season precipitation. 8476,2008,3,3,Sea-going hardware for the cloud albedo method of reversing global warming,Following the review by Latham et al. (Latham et al. 2008 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 366) of a strategy to reduce insolation by exploiting the Twomey effect| the present paper describes in outline the rationale and underlying engineering hardware that may bring the strategy from concept to operation. Wind-driven spray vessels will sail back and forth perpendicular to the local prevailing wind and release micron-sized drops of seawater into the turbulent boundary layer beneath marine stratocumulus clouds. The combination of wind and vessel movements will treat a large area of sky. When residues left after drop evaporation reach cloud level they will provide many new cloud condensation nuclei giving more but smaller drops and so will increase the cloud albedo to reflect solar energy back out to space. If the possible power increase of 3.7 W m(-2) from double pre-industrial CO(2) is divided by the 24-hour solar input of 340 W m(-2)| a global albedo increase of only 1.1 per cent will produce a sufficient offset. The method is not intended to make new clouds. It will just make existing clouds whiter. This paper describes the design of 300 tonne ships powered by Flettner rotors rather than conventional sails. The vessels will drag turbines resembling oversized propellers through the water to provide the means for generating electrical energy. Some will be used for rotor spin| but most will be used to create spray by pumping 30 kg s(-1) of carefully filtered water through banks of filters and then to micro-nozzles with piezoelectric excitation to vary drop diameter. The rotors offer a convenient housing for spray nozzles with fan assistance to help initial dispersion. The ratio of solar energy reflected by a drop at the top of a cloud to the energy needed to make the surface area of the nucleus on which it has grown is many orders of magnitude and so the spray quantities needed to achieve sufficient global cooling are technically feasible. 8696,2008,2,4,Seasonal and interannual variation of subtidal fish assemblages in Wakasa Bay with reference to the warming trend in the Sea of Japan,A bi-monthly underwater visual census was conducted in the subtidal habitat of Nagahama| Wakasa Bay| Sea of Japan| over 5 years from January 2002 to December 2006. A total of 83 fish species and 63|328 individuals were recorded over 120 1-h visual censuses composed of three 2x200 m transects. The number of both total individuals (abundance) and species (richness) were strongly correlated with the bottom-water temperature. Species richness was greatest in summer (July-September)| with 10-20 species per 400 m(2)supercript stop| when the sea-bottom temperature was highest (24-28 degrees C)| and lowest in winter (January-March)| with 1-8 species per 400 m(2) supercript stop| when the temperature was lowest (10-12 degrees C). Five species| i.e.| rockfish| Sebastes inermis| wrasse| Pseudolabrus sieboldi| two species of goby| Acentrogobius pflaumii and Tridentiger trigonocephalus| and pygmy filefish| Rudarius ercodes| were frequently observed and present in more than 200 of the total of 360 total transects. While the presence of most fish species was dependent on water temperature| some species were independent of water temperature| including anchovy| Engraulis japonicus| S. inermis| wasp fish| Hypodytes rubripinnis| A. pflaumii and pufferfish| Takifugu poecilonotus. Jack mackerel| Trachurus japonicus| was the most abundant fish| being most typically seen from spring through autumn| with a total of 21|850 individuals observed over the whole census period. Some species showed strong annual fluctuations in abundance. The interannual stability in fish abundance and species richness was probably because the fish assemblage was composed of a sufficiently large number of species| but with the number of each species fluctuating over time. A comparison of the present survey to one in 1970-72 revealed that over the last 30 years southern fish species have significantly increased whereas those indigenous to northern waters have decreased. 8557,2008,4,4,Seasonal effect on N2O formation in nitrification in constructed wetlands,Constructed wetlands are considered to be important sources of nitrous oxide (N2O). In order to investigate the contribution of nitrification in N2O formation| some environmental factors| plant species and ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) inactive layers have been compared. Vegetation cells indicated remarkable effect of seasons and different plant species on N2O emission and AOB amount. Nitrous oxide data showed large temporal and Spatial fluctuations ranging 0-52.8 mg N2O m(-2) d(-1). Higher AOB amount and N2O flux rate were observed in the Zizania latifolia cell| reflecting high potential of global warming. Roles of plants as ecosystem engineers are summarized with rhizosphere oxygen release and organic matter transportation to affect nitrogen transformation. The Phragmites australis cell contributed to keeping high T-N removal performance and lower N2O emission. The distribution of AOB also supported this result. Statistical analysis showed several environmental parameters affecting the strength of observed greenhouse gases emission| such as water temperature| water level| TOC| plant species and plant cover. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8650,2008,2,4,Seasonal occurrence of canine babesiosis is influenced by local climate conditions,Global warming and its effect on local climate conditions is one of the presumed underlying causes for changes in temporal and spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. In Europe| canine babesiosis is transmitted by Dermacentor reticulatus. This hard tick species is observed to spread to new endemic areas. Within these new areas| specific local climate conditions may be responsible for sudden seasonal onset and termination of occurrence of this disease in dogs. From 2000 to 2006| 343 confirmed cases of canine babesiosis were documented at the Veterinary University of Vienna and in the Laboratory for Veterinary Diagnostic (INVITRO| Vienna). Estimated week of infection was analysed for mean air and soil temperature| relative humidity| and precipitation for each case. For seasonal start in spring| a sudden rise of air temperature Lip to 12 degrees C and defrosting of soil were essential. In autumn| the seasonal start was associated with a drop of temperature below 17 degrees C. Termination of occurrence of canine babesiosis| independent of season| correlated either with a sudden drop of temperature (Delta T> 9 degrees C) with concurrent heavy rain| persistent drought| or with air temperature above 20 degrees C (spring/summer) or below 5 degrees C (autumn/winter). Relative humidity and precipitation did not have a major influence on the incidence of canine babesiosis at all. Global climate changes and adaptation of ticks to new environmental conditions introduce vector-borne diseases into new areas. (C) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 9217,2008,2,4,Seasonal quantification of coastal processes and cliff erosion on fine sediment shorelines in a cold temperate climate| north shore of the St. Lawrence maritime estuary| Quebec,A quantification of coastal erosion processes on a clay cliff in a cold temperate region was conducted. This study was based on a network of markers that were measured on a monthly basis from 1998 to 2003. During that period| the average retreat rate of the cliff was 1.5 m/y. Our results demonstrate that weathering is a more significant cliff retreat factor than hydrodynamic processes on fine sediment shorelines. This statement opposes conventional understanding. In fact| 65% of the annual cliff retreat took place through the winter season when the waves could not reach the foot of the cliff because of an ice foot. This erosion is caused by cryogenic processes in winter| particularly through freeze-thaw cycles| whereas desiccation and wave undercutting contributed respectively for 20% and 15% of the total annual retreat. The field measurements conducted before and after major storms| especially on October 29| 2000| illustrated that wave undercutting was negligible for the clay cliff. These results do not corroborate with previous studies showing that cliff erosion is mostly controlled by wave undercutting with negligible winter erosion. In a context of global warming| the intensity of cryogenic processes can become more important due to milder winters| an increase in the number of freeze-thaw cycles| and the reduction of the ice foot and snow cover (especially on south-facing cliffs directly exposed to solar radiation). This study demonstrates that the evaluation of sensitivity of coastal systems to climatic change should not be done just for sea-level rise and increased storminess| but also for other climatic parameters. Future research should also take into account approaches combining the studies of marine and terrestrial erosion processes. 1275,2008,2,4,Seasonal variation and correlation with environmental factors of photosynthesis and water use efficiency of Juglans regia and Ziziphus jujuba,Both the photosynthetic light curves and CO(2) Curves of Juglans regia L. and Ziziphus jujuba Mill. var. spinosa in three seasons were measured using a LI-6400 portable photosynthesis system. The maximal net photosynthetic rate (A(max))| apparent quantum efficiency(phi)| maximal carboxylation rate (V(cmax)) and water use efficiency (WUE) of the two species were calculated based on the curves. The results showed that A(max) of J. regia reached its maximum at the late-season| while the highest values of A(max) of Z. jujuba occurred at the mid-season. The A(max) of J. regia was more affected by relative humidity (RH) of the atmosphere| while that of Z. jujuba was more affected by the air temperature. Light saturation point (LSP) and Light compensation point (LCP) of J. regia had a higher correlation with RH of the atmosphere| those of Z. jujuba| however| had a higher correlation with air temperature. V(cmax) of both J. regia and Z. jujuba had negative correlation with RH of the atmosphere. WUE of J. regia would decrease with the rise of the air temperature while that of Z. jujuba increased. Thus it could be seen that RH| temperature and soil moisture had main effect on photosynthesis and WUE of J. regia and Z. jujuba. Incorporating data on the physiological differences among tree species into forest carbon models will greatly improve our ability to predict alterations to the forest carbon budgets under various environmental scenarios such as global climate change| or with differing species composition. 1125,2008,4,4,Seasonal variations in the isotopic composition of near-surface water vapour in the eastern Mediterranean,Although the isotopic composition of precipitation is widely used in global climate change studies| use of water vapour isotopes is considerably more limited. Here we present the results from 9 yr of atmospheric vapour measurements in the Eastern Mediterranean| at a site in Israel. The measurements show a strong mean seasonal cycle of about 4 parts per thousand in 180 (peaking around July). This seasonality could not be adequately explained by changes in surface interactions or in air mass trajectories| as usually invoked for variations in local precipitation. We could explain this cycle only as a combination of three components: (1) rainout effects; (2) temperature and relative humidity control of the initial vapour and (3) seasonal variations in the vertical mixing across the top of the planetary boundary layer. This last component is emphasized in the Current Study| and it was shown to be a significant factor in the seasonal cycle features. The measurements were also compared with an isotope-enabled GCM (CAM2) run| which exhibited a markedly different seasonal cycle. Such comparisons with vapour isotopes data could help in constraining models better. 8537,2008,3,4,Second law analysis of two-stage compression transcritical CO2 heat pump cycle,Because of the global warming impact of hydro fluorocarbons| the uses of natural refrigerants in automotive and HVAC industries have received worldwide attention. CO2 is the most promising refrigerant in these industries| especially the transcritical CO2 refrigeration cycle. The objective of this work is to identify the main factors that affect two-stage compression transcritical CO2 system efficiency. A second law of thermodynamic analysis on the entire two-stage CO2 cycle is conducted so that the exergy destruction of each system component can be deduced and ranked| allowing future efforts to focus on improving the components that have the highest potential for advancement. The inter-stage pressure is used as a variable parameter in the analysis study. The second law efficiency| coefficient of cooling performance and total exergy destruction of the system variations with the inter-stage pressure are presented graphically. It was concluded that there is an optimum inter-stage pressure that maximizes both first law and second law efficiencies. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 9262,2008,5,4,Sedimentary facies and architecture of the Holocene to Recent Romo barrier island in the Danish Wadden Sea,This paper describes an ongoing multidisciplinary study on the development of the barrier islands in the Danish Wadden Sea (Vadehavet)| carried out by the Department of Geography and Geology at the University of Copenhagen and the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). Nine sediment cores each c. 25 m long and a total of c. 45 km ground penetrating radar (GPR) profiles have been acquired on the islands of Romo and Fano. Geochemical and palaeontological analyses and dating of 150 core samples using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) are in progress. This multidisciplinary approach has given new insights into the sedimentary architecture and development of the island| and the study is expected to result in a new detailed facies model. Such models are essential for an assessment of the effects of rising sea level associated with global warming. The new facies model can also be used as an analogue for subsurface oil or water reservoirs in similar sedimentary settings. This article presents selected core and GPR data from the Romo barrier island. 1240,2008,5,4,Sedimentary records and paleoenvironmental significance of stable isotopic evidences from the late Cenozoic| northern Tianshan,Sedimentary records in northern Tianshan are in response to the uplift of the Tianshan Mountain from the late Cenozoic. Eocene-Oligocene Anjihaihe formation mainly deposite gray or dark gray lacustrine mudstone with flat bedding; Late Oligocene Shawan formation are overlain purple meander sandstone| siltstone and interbedded conglomerate are dominant; the lower of Early Miocene Taxihe formation consist of gray or brownish siltstone and mudstone frequently coexist; the upper are brownish or gray-yellowish sandstone with interbedded siltstone; Late Miocene-Early Pliocene Dushanzi formation are composed of braided-fluvial accumulation of dark gray conglomerate or associated with brownish or gray-yellowish sandstone; Late Pliocene-Early Pleistocene Xiyu formation consist of a large amount of alluvial fan pebble to boulder conglomerate. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopic data show: average VC values from Eocene-Oligocene| through Late Oligocene| lower of Early Miocene| upper of Early Miocene| Late Miocene-Early Pliocene to Late Pliocene-Early Pleistocene are similar to-3. 9 parts per thousand| similar to-8. 1 parts per thousand|similar to- 5. 9 parts per thousand| similar to- 8. 5 parts per thousand| similar to- 6. 0 parts per thousand respectively| while average delta O-18 values are similar to - 5. 0 parts per thousand| similar to - 11.0 parts per thousand| similar to- 7. 7 parts per thousand| similar to- 10. 3 parts per thousand| similar to - 10. 4 parts per thousand respectively. Stable isotopic changes and sedimentary records indicate paleoenvironmental changes: warm-wet during Eocene-Oligocene| and and cold during Late Oligocene| semi-humid and semi-warm during lower of Early Miocene| and and cold during upper of Early Miocene| and and cold during Late Miocene-Early Pliocene| arid and semi-warm during Late Pliocene to Pleistocene. Combined with paleomagnetic data in this area| stable isotopic results| sedimentary records and global climate change| five paleoenvironmental changes have developed in northern Tianshan since the late Cenozoic: climate conversion during late of Qligocene| climate break at Early Miocene( similar to 24Ma)| climate conversion during early of Miocene(24 similar to 19Ma)| C-4 rapidly expand at Late Miocene( similar to 7Ma) and climate intensely vibrate at Late Pliocene to Early Pleistocene ( similar to 3. 17Ma). 8963,2008,5,4,Sedimentary response to Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum carbon release: A model-data comparison,Possible sources of carbon that may have caused global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary are constrained using an intermediate complexity Earth-system model configured with early Eocene paleogeography. We find that 6800 Pg C (delta(13)C of -22 parts per thousand) is the smallest pulse modeled here to reasonably reproduce observations of the extent of seafloor CaCO(3) dissolution. This pulse could not have been solely the result of methane hydrate destabilization| suggesting that additional sources of CO(2) such as volcanic CO(2)| the oxidation of sedimentary organic carbon| or thermogenic methane must also have contributed. Observed contrasts in dissolution intensity between Atlantic and Pacific sites are reproduced in the model by reducing bioturbation in the Atlantic during the event| simulating a potential consequence of the spread of low-oxygen bottom waters. 9138,2008,2,4,Selecting models of apple flowering time and understanding how global warming has had an impact on this trait,This study aimed to improve the modelling of flowering time in fruit trees and to understand to what extent global warming has affected this trait since the end of the 1980s|. The onset of flowering time (F1 stage) in apple trees has advanced by 7-8 d in France since the late 1980s. In this context| a sequential model composed of a chilling sub-model and a heat sub-model was considered. The input data consisted of F1 dates for 'Golden Delicious' apple in three French cropping areas from the North-West to South-East over the period 197.6 - 2002 (81 F1 dates). A user-oriented software package| called 'Pollenoscope'| automatically optimised combinations between seven chilling and three heat temperature functions. This was achieved by maximizing the R-2 values between the observed and simulated flowering dates. The study provided comparative information for assessing the respective effects of temperature functions commonly used for modelling flowering time in temperate trees. Three selected models explained 82 - 86% of the observed variability in flowering. Their fitness for an accurate prediction of the F1 date was validated using independent flowering datasets. All three models simulated similar time-course changes in the duration of the chilling effect at all three locations [i.e.| a mean increase in the duration of this effect (by 3 - 5 d) since the end of the 1980s]. Consequently| it suggested that the duration of the heat effect had decreased (10 - 13 d) to explain the advance in flowering time. Hence| our results support the idea that global warming has| simultaneously| exerted two opposing effects in France between 1976 - 2002: (i) a slower mean rate of completion for the chilling requirement| and (ii) a higher mean rate of completion for the heat requirement. A more marked effect on completion of the heat requirement may have resulted from more pronounced warming from January to April| corresponding to the active growth phase of floral primordia| than from October to January| corresponding to the dormancy-breaking phase. 1194,2008,4,4,Sensitivity of a carbon and productivity model to climatic| water| terrain| and biophysical parameters in a Rocky Mountain watershed,Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is important in ecological| watershed| and forest management studies| and more broadly in global climate change research. Determining the relative importance and magnitude of uncertainty of NPP model inputs is important for proper carbon reporting over larger areas and time periods. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model in mountainous terrain using an established montane forest test site in Kananaskis| Alberta| in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Model runs were based on forest (land cover| leaf area index (LAI)| biomass) and climate-water inputs (solar radiation| temperature| precipitation| humidity| soil water holding capacity) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives| climate data| geographical information system (GIS) functions| and topographically corrected satellite imagery. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted as a controlled series of experiments involving (i) NPP individual parameter sensitivity for a full growing season| (ii) NPP independent variation tests (parameter mu +/- 1 sigma)| (iii) factorial analyses to assess more complex multiple-factor interactions| and (iv) topographic correction. The results| validated against field measurements| showed that modeled NPP was sensitive to most inputs measured in the study area| with LAI and forest type the most important forest input| and solar radiation the most important climate input. Soil available water holding capacity expressed as a function of wetness index was only significant in conjunction with precipitation when both parameters represented a moisture-deficit situation. NPP uncertainty resulting from topographic influence was equivalent to 140 kg C ha (1) . Year (1). This suggested that topographic correction of model inputs is important for accurate NPP estimation. The BEPS model| designed originally for flat boreal forests| was shown to be applicable in mountainous terrain given appropriate image terrain corrections using the SCS+C approach. Rocky Mountain carbon dynamics were simulated with average annual NPP of Kananaskis forests estimated at 4.01 t C ha(1) . year(1) and compared favourably with the field plot estimate of 4.24 t C ha(1) . Year(1) for this area. 8415,2008,2,4,Serosurveillance for Japanese encephalitis| Akabane| and Aino viruses for Thoroughbred horses in Korea,Recent global warming trends may have a significant impact on vector-borne viral diseases| possibly affecting vector population dynamics and disease transmission. This study measured levels of hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibodies against Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) and neutralizing antibodies against Akabane virus (AKAV) and Aino virus (AINV) for Thoroughbred horses in Korea. Blood samples were collected from 989 racehorses in several provinces| between October 2005 and March 2007. Sera were tested using either an HI assay or a virus neutralization test. Approximately half (49.7%; 492/989) of the horses tested were antibody-positive for JEV. The HI titer against JEV was significantly correlated with racehorse age (p < 0.05). Horses with an HI antibody titer of 1 : 160 or higher accounted for 3.9% of the animals tested| indicating that vectors transmitting arthropod-borne viruses bit relatively few horses. In contrast| 3.8 % (191497) and 19.5 % (97/497) of horse sera collected in March 2007 were positive against AKAV and AINV| respectively. The presence of antibodies against AKAV and AINV may indicate the multiplication of AKAV and AINV in these horses. 9237,2008,3,4,Sewage sludge handling with phosphorus utilization - life cycle assessment of four alternatives,Four handling options for sewage sludge were studied from an environmental system's perspective using life cycle assessment. The studied options were restoration of mining areas| composting with other biomatetials for use on golf courses| hygienisation through storage for agricultural use| and supercritical water oxidation with phosphorus recovery. The results are discussed in terms of impact on global warming| acidification| eutrophication| and the use of finite resources and primary energy. A very large impact of including biogeochernical emissions from sludge handling and spreading on land can be seen. System expansions for replaced artificial fertilizers also had a major influence on the results. It is clear that it is important for the environmental outcome of sludge treatment options that biogeochernical emissions from sludge are minimized and that nutrients and other resources are utilized efficiently. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9150,2008,3,4,SFGP 2007 - The effects of sludge digester biogas recovery on WWTP ecological impacts and exergetic balance,Exergetic Life Cycle Assessment (ELCA) is applied to a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) by activated sludge in order to demonstrate the environmental and exergetic effect of biogas recovery within the whole system boundaries. Two methods of recovery are compared: a simple burner ( Burner scenario) and a combined heat and power engine (CHP scenario). The results showed that biogas recovery reduces the depletion of natural resources and decreases ecological impacts. Eutrophication| toxicity and ecotoxicity impacts are not affected by biogas recovery in the Burner scenario and the change is not significant in the CHP scenario. Irreversibility is added to the system by biogas recovery. This is because of the nature of the burnt mixture| which is different from conventional fossil fuel and because of the addition of units such as CHP and heat exchangers. The CHP fed with the biogas cannot fulfill the total demand in thermal energy for heating and drying in comparison to the burner. Natural gas should be burnt additionally and a heat exchanger introduced. The irreversibility of the CHP scenario is larger than the Burner's one| but the former allows reducing electricity consumption by 22.7%. Moreover| exhaust gas has a positive effect from the exergy point of view. It contains an excess potential work which could be recovered in another function. Based on ozone layer depletion| photochemical oxidation| acidification and marine aquatic ecotoxicity impacts| biogas recovery with a CHP scenario is better than with a Burner scenario. But based on abiotic resources depletion| global warming potential| irreversibility and excess potential work the second strategy| with a Burner scenario| is the best one. In process optimization| the focus should not be only on potential impacts reduction. The decrease of the irreversibility produced by new functions introduced in the system should also be taken into account. The other subsystems within the system boundaries should be looked at especially those related to electricity production. The ELCA is a useful tool for system ecodesign and for finding the best way to promote renewable fuels versus fossil ones. 9056,2008,5,2,Sharply increased insect herbivory during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum,The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM| 55.8 Ma)| an abrupt global warming event linked to a transient increase in pCO(2)| was comparable in rate and magnitude to modern anthropogenic climate change. Here we use plant fossils from the Bighorn Basin of Wyoming to document the combined effects of temperature and pCO(2) on insect herbivory. We examined 5|062 fossil leaves from five sites positioned before| during| and after the PETM (59-55.2 Ma). The amount and diversity of insect damage on angiosperm leaves| as well as the relative abundance of specialized damage| correlate with rising and failing temperature. All reach distinct maxima during the PETM| and every PETM plant species is extensively damaged and colonized by specialized herbivores. Our study suggests that increased insect herbivory is likely to be a net long-term effect of anthropogenic pCO(2) increase and warming temperatures. 8811,2008,5,3,Shield effect on continental weathering: Implication for climatic evolution of the Earth at the geological timescale,A model sensitivity study is performed in order to explore the impact of the development of thick weathering profiles in the equatorial area on the geological evolution of climate. Long term climatic evolution is driven by the balance existing between solid Earth degassing and continental silicate weathering. The CO(2) consumption through continental silicate weathering is here calculated as a function of climate| based on the correlation existing with mean annual continental runoff for large drainage basins. These correlations appear to be dependent on the climatic regime: under mid-latitude temperate climate| the silicate weathering is 5 times more sensitive to continental runoff than in the warm humid equatorial belt. These correlations emphasize the role of the thick weathering profiles existing in equatorial area| shielding the bedrock from further weathering. We use this set of relationships between runoff and silicate weathering as a function of the geoclimatic zone| to explore the impact of this shield effect on the Mesozoic evolution of climate| using the GEOCLIM model. Compared to previous work| we suggest that atmospheric CO(2) was generally underestimated in the past| evidencing a complex interplay between the paleogeographic setting| and the shield effect. Particularly| calculated atmospheric CO(2) during the Early-Middle Jurassic rises up to 1600 ppmv| while it was limited to 700 ppmv when shield effect was neglected| corresponding to a global warming of more than 4 degrees C. This study emphasizes the need for the building up of numerical models describing the growth of the weathering profiles that can be coupled to vegetation and climate models to investigate biogeochemical cycle and climate evolution| even at the geological timescale. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1180,2008,2,4,Shifting Global Invasive Potential of European Plants with Climate Change,Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities| their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora| which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution| both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies| projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model| and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However| less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents| and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion| global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species. 9134,2008,2,4,Short-term effects of temperature enhancement on growth and reproduction of alpine grassland species,In order to study the effects of temperature enhancement on alpine calcareous grassland species| a warming experiment was carried out in the Berchtesgaden National Park (Southeast Germany| Northern Calcareous Alps) between 2002 and 2004. The study was conducted in stands of the Carex sempervirens and the Carex firma communities; the two most widespread grassland types in the alpine zone of the Northern Calcareous Alps. The temperature of the vegetation stand and the upper soil was passively enhanced using open top chambers (OTCs). The construction of the OTCs was appropriate since temperature was clearly increased while water conditions (humidity| soil water content) were not changed. By comparing manipulated (temperature enhancement) with non-manipulated plots| the effects of warming on growth and reproduction of selected key species were studied. To test if vegetation response to temperature enhancement is at least partly due to increases in nutrient availability| soil solution concentrations of nitrate and ammonium were analysed. We found that most of the studied plant species are sensitive to temperature enhancement. Growth and/or reproduction of 12 of the 14 studied species were significantly stimulated by warming. Only two species showed no response; none of the species experienced decreases in growth or reproduction. Dwarf shrubs and graminoids showed a stronger response than herbaceous perennials. A significant effect of warming on nutrient availability could not be detected. The observed response of vegetation is therefore mainly caused by direct and not by indirect temperature effects. (C) 2007 Gesellschaft fur Okologie| Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 1205,2008,2,4,Short-term streamflow forecasting with global climate change implications - A comparative study between genetic programming and neural network models,Sustainable water resources management is a critically important priority across the globe. While water scarcity limits the uses of water in many ways| floods may also result in property damages and the loss of life. To more efficiently use the limited amount of water under the changing world or to resourcefully provide adequate time for flood warning| the issues have led us to seek advanced techniques for improving streamflow forecasting on a short-term basis. This study emphasizes the inclusion of sea surface temperature (SST) in addition to the spatio-temporal rainfall distribution via the Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD)| meteorological data via local weather stations| and historical stream data via USGS gage stations to collectively forecast discharges in a semi-arid watershed in south Texas. Two types of artificial intelligence models| including genetic programming (GP) and neural network (NN) models| were employed comparatively. Four numerical evaluators were used to evaluate the validity of a suite of forecasting models. Research findings indicate that GP-derived streamflow forecasting models were generally favored in the assessment in which both SST and meteorological data significantly improve the accuracy of forecasting. Among several scenarios| NEXRAD rainfall data were proven its most effectiveness for a 3-day forecast| and SST Gulf-to-Atlantic index shows larger impacts than the SST Gulf-to-Pacific index on the streamflow forecasts. The most forward looking GP-derived models can even perform a 30-day streamflow forecast ahead of time with an r-square of 0.84 and RMS error 5.4 in our study. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8450,2008,3,4,Shrinking Sphere Kinetics for Batch Dissolution of Mixed Particles of a Single Substance at High Under-Saturation: Validation with Sodium Chloride| but with Biogenic Silica in Mind,The cubic equation recently derived for the increase in concentration of a solute with time| as the solid dissolves in batch according to the shrinking sphere model at high under-saturation| is extended to dissolutions of mixtures of differently sized particles. This problem needs to be solved if batch dissolutions are to play their part in the proposed amelioration of global warming and associated climate change by accelerated 're-burial' of excess CO(2) in ocean sediment. The upgraded model was tested using sodium chloride dissolved in 50% aqueous propanone| whence the model fitted two separate runs with 500 and 212 mu m| and 212 and 38 mu m| diameter crystals| respectively. The key to simulating dissolution in this way lies in the dissolutions being independent of each other. It is further shown that although this condition was implicit in the recent derivation of the cubic equation| it was not recognised at the time. The work should be applicable to any batch dissolution of mixed particles at high under-saturation| and hence| may find use in many industrial and laboratory dissolutions. Simulations show how agglomerated mixtures can yield a straight line on the plot of ln(1-C/C(T)) versus time| as was reported to occur recently with sodium chloride taken 'straight from the bottle'. It is shown that this probably explains why exponential dissolutions may have seemed appropriate to the dissolution of biogenic silica in earlier literature. This study suggests that a new round of biogenic silica dissolutions| but with sieved samples| would be worthwhile| with the likelihood that shrinking sphere behaviour might well be found to characterise the kinetics. The opportunity is taken to investigate a number of aspects of the shrinking sphere model not generally discussed before| e.g. the graph for the change in surface area with time. The limitations of using cubic salt crystals with the shrinking sphere model are discussed. 1186,2008,2,4,Shrub Invasion Decreases Diversity and Alters Community Stability in Northern Chihuahuan Desert Plant Communities,Background: Global climate change is rapidly altering species range distributions and interactions within communities. As ranges expand| invading species change interactions in communities which may reduce stability| a mechanism known to affect biodiversity. In aridland ecosystems worldwide| the range of native shrubs is expanding as they invade and replace native grassland vegetation with significant consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Methodology: We used two long-term data sets to determine the effects of shrub encroachment by Larrea tridentata on subdominant community composition and stability in formerly native perennial grassland dominated by Bouteloua eriopoda in New Mexico| USA. Principal Findings: Our results indicated that Larrea invasion decreased species richness during the last 100 years. We also found that over shorter temporal scales species-poor subdominant communities in areas invaded by Larrea were less stable (more variable in time) compared to species rich communities in grass-dominated vegetation. Compositional stability increased as cover of Bouteloua increased and decreased as cover of Larrea increased. Significance: Changes in community stability due to altered interspecific interactions may be one mechanism by which biodiversity declines in grasslands following shrub invasion. As global warming increases| shrub encroachment into native grasslands worldwide will continue to alter species interactions and community stability both of which may lead to a decline in biodiversity. 9042,2008,2,4,Significant contribution of the 18.6 year tidal cycle to regional coastal changes,Although rising global sea levels will affect the shape of coastlines over the coming decades(1|2)| the most severe and catastrophic shoreline changes occur as a consequence of local and regional-scale processes. Changes in sediment supply(3) and deltaic subsidence(4|5)| both natural or anthropogenic| and the occurrences of tropical cyclones(4|5) and tsunamis(6) have been shown to be the leading controls on coastal erosion. Here| we use satellite images of South American mangrove-colonized mud banks collected over the past twenty years to reconstruct changes in the extent of the shoreline between the Amazon and Orinoco rivers. The observed timing of the redistribution of sediment and migration of the mud banks along the 1|500km muddy coast suggests the dominant control of ocean forcing by the 18.6 year nodal tidal cycle(7). Other factors affecting sea level such as global warming or El Nino and La Nina events show only secondary influences on the recorded changes. In the coming decade| the 18.6 year cycle will result in an increase of mean high water levels of 6 cm along the coast of French Guiana| which will lead to a 90 m shoreline retreat. 8542,2008,3,4,Simple Dynamic Gasifier Model That Runs in Aspen Dynamics,Gasification has been used in industry on a relatively limited scale for many years| but it is emerging as the premier unit operation in the energy and chemical industries. The switch front expensive and insecure petroleum to solid hydrocarbon sources (coal and biomass) is Occurring due to the vast amount of domestic solid resources| national security| and global warming issues. Gasification (or partial oxidation) is a vital component of "clean coal" technology. Sulfur and nitrogen emissions can be reduced| overall energy efficiency is increased| and carbon dioxide recovery and sequestration are facilitated. Gasification units in an electric power generation plant produce a fuel vas for driving combustion turbines. Gasification units in a chemical plant generate as| which can be used to produce a wide spectrum of chemical products. Future plants are predicted synthesis to be hybrid power/chemical plants with gasification as the key unit operation. The widely used process simulator Aspen Plus provides a library of models that can be used to develop an overall gasifier model that handles solids. so steady-state design and optimization studies of processes with gasifiers can be undertaken. However| at the present time| these models cannot be exported into Aspen Dynamics because the automatic export of models involving solids from Aspen Plus to Aspen Dynamics is not supported. Dynamic simulations are essential for the development of stable and agile plantwide control structures for energy and chemical processes. This paper presents a simple approximate method for achieving the objective of having a gasifier model that can be exported into Aspen Dynamics. The basic idea is to use a high molecular weight hydrocarbon that is present in the Aspen library as a pseudofuel. This component should have the same 1:1 hydrogen-to-carbon ratio that is found in coal and biomass. For many plantwide dynamic studies| a rigorous high-fidelity dynamic model of the gasifier is not needed because its dynamics are very fast and the gasifier gas volume is a relatively small fraction of the total volume of the entire plant. The proposed approximate model captures the essential macroscale thermal| flow| composition| and pressure dynamics. This paper does not attempt to optimize the design or control of gasifiers but merely presents an idea of how to dynamically simulate coal gasification in an approximate way. 8477,2008,2,3,Simulated 21st century's increase in oceanic suboxia by CO(2)-enhanced biotic carbon export,The primary impacts of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions on marine biogeochemical cycles predicted so far include ocean acidification| global warming induced shifts in biogeographical provinces| and a possible negative feedback on atmospheric CO(2) levels by CO(2)-fertilized biological production. Here we report a new potentially significant impact on the oxygen-minimum zones of the tropical oceans. Using a model of global climate| ocean circulation| and biogeochemical cycling| we extrapolate mesocosm-derived experimental findings of a pCO(2)-sensitive increase in biotic carbon-to-nitrogen drawdown to the global ocean. For a simulation run from the onset of the industrial revolution until A.D. 2100 under a "business-as-usual'' scenario for anthropogenic CO(2) emissions| our model predicts a negative feedback on atmospheric CO(2) levels| which amounts to 34 Gt C by the end of this century. While this represents a small alteration of the anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon cycle| the model results reveal a dramatic 50% increase in the suboxic water volume by the end of this century in response to the respiration of excess organic carbon formed at higher CO(2) levels. This is a significant expansion of the marine "dead zones'' with severe implications not only for all higher life forms but also for oxygen-sensitive nutrient recycling and| hence| for oceanic nutrient inventories. 9111,2008,2,4,Simulated biomass and soil carbon of loblolly pine and cottonwood plantations across a thermal gradient in southeastern United States,Changes in biomass and soil carbon with nitrogen fertilization were simulated for a 25-year loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantation and for three consecutive 7-year short-rotation cottonwood (Populas deltoides) stands. Simulations were conducted for 17 locations in the southeastern United States with mean annual temperatures ranging from 13.1 to 19.4 degrees C. The LINKAGES stand growth model| modified to include the "RothC" soil C and soil N model| simulated tree growth and soil C Status. Nitrogen fertilization significantly increased cumulative cottonwood aboveground biomass in the three rotations from a site average of 106 to 272 Mg/ha in 21 years. The equivalent site averages for loblolly pine showed a significant increase from 176 and 184 Mg/ha in 25 years with fertilization. Location results| compared on the annual sum of daily mean air 9 temperatures above 5.5 degrees C (growing-degree-days)| showed contrasts. Loblolly pine biomass increased whereas cottonwood decreased with increasing growing-degree-days| particularly in cottonwood stands receiving N fertilization. The increment of biomass due to N addition per unit of control biomass (relative response) declined in both plantations with increase in growing-degree-days. Average soil C in loblolly pine stands increased from 24.3 to 40.4 Mg/ha in 25 years and in cottonwood soil C decreased from 14.7 to 13.7 Mg/ha after three 7-year rotations. Soil C did not decrease with increasing growing-degree-days in either plantation type suggesting that global warming may not initially affect soil C. Nitrogen fertilizer increased soil C slightly in cottonwood plantations and had no significant effect on the soil C of loblolly stands. Published by Elsevier B.V. 8490,2008,2,3,Simulated response of conterminous United States ecosystems to climate change at different levels of fire suppression| CO(2) emission rate| and growth response to CO(2),A modeling experiment was designed to investigate the impact of fire management| CO(2) emission rate. and the growth response to CO(2) on the response of ecosystems in the conterminous United States to climate scenarios produced by three different General Circulation Models (GCMs) as simulated by the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). Distinct regional trends in response to projected climatic change were evident across all combinations of the experimental factors. In the eastern half of the U.S.| the average response to relatively large increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation was an 11% loss of total ecosystem carbon. In the West| the response to increases in precipitation and relatively small increases in temperature was a 5% increase in total carbon stocks. Simulated fire suppression reduced average carbon losses in the East to about 6%| and preserved forests which were largely converted to woodland and savanna in the absence of fire suppression. Across the west| unsuppressed fire maintained near constant carbon stocks despite increases in vegetation productivity. With fire suppression| western carbon stocks increased by 10% and most shrublands were converted to woodland or even forest. With a relatively high level of growth in response to CO(2)| total ecosystem carbon pools at the end of the century were on average about 9-10% larger in both regions of the U.S. compared to a low CO(2) response. The western U.S. gained enough carbon to counter losses from unsuppressed fire only with the high CO(2) response| especially in conjunction with the higher CO(2) emission rate. In the eastern U.S.| fire suppression was sufficient to produce a simulated carbon sink only with both the high CO(2) response and emission rate. Considerable uncertainty exists with respect to the impacts of global warming on the ecosystems of the conterminous U.S.| some of which resides in the future trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions| in the direct response of vegetation to increasing CO(2)| and in future tradeoffs among different fire management options| as illustrated in this study. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1224,2008,4,4,Simulating gross primary productivity of humid-temperate pastures,Although most pasture growth models simulate many above- and belowground components of the plant community| calibration and validation are usually based only on periodic measurements of aboveground forage yield. This research used daily measurements of gross primary productivity (GPP) to validate the photosynthesis subroutine of the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM). The model was calibrated for a pasture grazed by beef cattle (Bos taurus) in 2003| then validated with data from 2004 through 2006. Predicted and observed annual yield differed by 14 +/- 9%| whereas predicted GPP differed from observed GPP by only 7 +/- 3%. Seasonal trends in GPP were also adequately simulated| although a slight overestimation in the spring and early-summer and underestimation in the later half of the year occurred. Overestimation occurred when wintertime temperatures were above freezing or when N availability was high following fertilizer application. Late-season underestimation was related to low soil N availability which resulted from excessive N uptake by plants earlier in the year. Only minor adjustments in model structure were needed to improve simulation of GPP. Most adjustments involved changes in parameter values| many of which are often difficult to find or lacking in the literature. Refinement of models to accurately simulate the seasonal distribution of physiological parameters such as GPP will help ensure that model structures correctly represent the true dynamics of C assimilation and pasture growth. 8840,2008,2,4,Simulation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in an atmosphere-ocean global coupled model. Part II: weakening in a climate change experiment: a feedback mechanism,Most state-of-the art global coupled models simulate a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in climate change scenarios but the mechanisms leading to this weakening are still being debated. The third version of the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques) global atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model (CNRM-CM3) was used to conduct climate change experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). The analysis of the A1B scenario experiment shows that global warming leads to a slowdown of North Atlantic deep ocean convection and thermohaline circulation south of Iceland. This slowdown is triggered by a freshening of the Arctic Ocean and an increase in freshwater outflow through Fram Strait. Sea ice melting in the Barents Sea induces a local amplification of the surface warming| which enhances the cyclonic atmospheric circulation around Spitzberg. This anti-clockwise circulation forces an increase in Fram Strait outflow and a simultaneous increase in ocean transport of warm waters toward the Barents Sea| favouring further sea ice melting and surface warming in the Barents Sea. Additionally| the retreat of sea ice allows more deep water formation north of Iceland and the thermohaline circulation strengthens there. The transport of warm and saline waters toward the Barents Sea is further enhanced| which constitutes a second positive feedback. 1273,2008,3,4,Simulation study of China's net primary production,Spatial and temporal distribution of vegetation net primary production (NPP) in China was studied using three light-use efficiency models (CASA| GLOPEM and GEOLUE) and two mechanistic ecological process models (CEVSA| GEOPRO). Based on spatial and temporal analysis (e.g. monthly| seasonally and annually) of simulated results from ecological process mechanism models of CASA| GLOPEM and CEVSA| the following conclusions could be made: (1) during the last 20 years| NPP change in China followed closely the seasonal change of climate affected by monsoon with an overall trend of increasing; (2) simulated average seasonal NPP was: 0.571 +/- 0.2 GtC in spring| 1.573 +/- 0.4 GtC in summer| 0.6 +/- 0.2 GtC in autumn| and 0.12 +/- 0.1 GtC in winter. Average annual NPP in China was 2.864 +/- 1 GtC. All the five models were able to simulate seasonal and spatial features of biomass for different ecological types in China. This paper provides a baseline for China's total biomass production. It also offers a means of estimating the NPP change due to afforestation| reforestation| conservation and other human activities and could aid people in using for-mentioned carbon sinks to fulfill China's commitment of reducing greenhouse gases. 8732,2008,2,4,Sixty years of environmental change in the world's largest freshwater lake - Lake Baikal| Siberia,High-resolution data collected over the past 60 years by a single family of Siberian scientists on Lake Baikal reveal significant warming of surface waters and long-term changes in the basal food web of the world's largest| most ancient lake. Attaining depths over 1.6 km| Lake Baikal is the deepest and most voluminous of the world's great lakes. Increases in average water temperature (1.21 degrees C since 1946)| chlorophyll a (300% since 1979)| and an influential group of zooplankton grazers (335% increase in cladocerans since 1946) may have important implications for nutrient cycling and food web dynamics. Results from multivariate autoregressive (MAR) modeling suggest that cladocerans increased strongly in response to temperature but not to algal biomass| and cladocerans depressed some algal resources without observable fertilization effects. Changes in Lake Baikal are particularly significant as an integrated signal of long-term regional warming| because this lake is expected to be among those most resistant to climate change due to its tremendous volume. These findings highlight the importance of accessible| long-term monitoring data for understanding ecosystem response to large-scale stressors such as climate change. 8891,2008,5,4,Size variations of the. calcareous nannofossil taxon Discoaster multiradiatus (Incertae sedis) across the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum in ocean drilling program holes 690B and 1209B,Size measurements of the calcareous nannofossil taxon Discoaster multiradiatus were carried out across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) in Ocean Drilling Program Holes 690B (Maud Rise| Weddell Sea) and 1209B (Shatsky Rise| Pacific Ocean). Morphometric investigations show that D. multiradiatus specimens are generally larger at ODP Site 1209 than at ODP Site 690. A limited increase in size of D. multiradiatus is recorded at ODP Site 1209| whereas significant enlargements characterize ODP Site 690. Preservation is comparable at both sites: nanno fossils are moderately preserved with some evidence of etching/overgrowth in the PETM interval. Yet| D. multiradiatus variations do not correlate with preservation state and morphometric data most likely represent primary signals rather than diagenetic artifacts. There is a direct relationship between D. multiradiatus size and paleotemperatures: largest specimens are coeval with global warming associated with the PETM| inferred to result from excess atmospheric CO(2) due to (partial) oxidation of massive quantities of methane. Size increases and largest specimens of D. multiradiatus occur at different stratigraphic levels within PETM at ODP Sites 690 and 1209. A marked shift in diameter size was observed at the onset and peak of the Carbon Isotopic Excursion (CIE) at ODP Site 690| but only at the end of CIE and initial recovery interval at ODP Site 1209. This diachroneity is puzzling| but indeed correlates well with reconstructed changes in surface and thermocline water masses temperature and salinity in the PETM interval at low and high latitudes. The presumed high concentrations of carbon dioxide seem to have not influenced the morphometry of D. multiradiatus. The major size increase of D. multiradiatus in the CIE of ODP Site 690 could represent the migration of larger-sized allochtonus specimens that moved from peri-equatorial/subtropical areas to higher latitudes during the warmest interval of the PETM| although no direct evidence of distinct populations/subpopulations has been obtained from the frequency diagrams. As a result| we infer that D. multiradiatus is a proxy of water masses stratification and might be used for deriving temperature-salinity-nutrient conditions in the mixed layer and thermocline and their dynamics. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9185,2008,3,3,Soil carbon dioxide emission and carbon content as affected by irrigation| tillage| cropping system| and nitrogen fertilization,Management practices can influence soil CO2 emission and C content in cropland| which can effect global warming. We examined the effects of combinations of irrigation| tillage| I cropping systems| and N fertilization on soil CO2 flux| temperature| water| and C content at the 0- to 20-cm depth from May to November 2005 at two sites in the northern Great Plains. Treatments were two irrigation systems (irrigated vs. non-irrigated) and six management practices that contained tilled and no-tilled malt barley (Hordeum vulgaris L.) with 0 to 134 kg N ha(-1)| no-tilled pea (Pisum sativum L.)| and a conservation reserve program (CRP) planting applied in Linen sandy loam (sandy| mixed| frigid| Entic Haplustolls) in western North Dakota. In eastern Montana| treatments were no-tilled malt barley with 78 kg N ha(-1)| no-tilled rye (Secale cereale L.)| no-tilled Austrian winter pea| no-tilled fallow| and tilled fallow applied in dryland Williams loam (fine-loamy| mixed Typic Argiborolls). Irrigation increased CO| flux by 13% compared with non-irrigation by increasing soil water content in North Dakota. Tillage increased CO2 flux by 62 to 118% compared with no-tillage at both places. The flux was 1.5- to 2.5-fold greater with tilled than with non-tilled treatments following heavy rain or irrigation in North Dakota and 1.5- to 2.0-fold greater with crops than with fallow following substantial rain in Montana. Nitrogen fertilization increased CO2 flux by 14% compared with no N fertilization in North Dakota and cropping increased the flux by 79% compared with fallow in no-till and 0 kg N ha(-1) in Montana. The CO2 flux in undisturbed CRP was similar to that in no-tilled crops. Although soil C content was not altered| management practices influenced CO2 flux within a short period due to changes in soil temperature| water. and nutrient contents. Regardless of irrigation| CO2 flux can be reduced from croplands to a level similar to that in CRP planting using no-tilled crops with or without N fertilization compared with other management practices. 8819,2008,2,3,Soil carbon stocks under present and future climate with specific reference to European ecoregions,World soils and terrestrial ecosystems have been a source of atmospheric abundance of CO(2) ever since settled agriculture began about 10-13 millennia ago. The amount of CO(2)-C emitted into the atmosphere is estimated at 136 +/- 55 Pg from terrestrial ecosystems| of which emission from world soils is estimated at 78 +/- 12 Pg. Conversion of natural to agricultural ecosystems decreases soil organic carbon (SOC) pool by 30-50% over 50-100 years in temperate regions| and 50-75% over 20-50 years in tropical climates. The projected global warming| with estimated increase in mean annual temperature of 4-6 degrees C by 2100| may have a profound impact on the total soil C pool and its dynamics. The SOC pool may increase due to increase in biomass production and accretion into the soil due to the so-called "CO(2) fertilization effect"| which may also enhance production of the root biomass. Increase in weathering of silicates due to increase in temperature| and that of the formation of secondary carbonates due to increase in partial pressure of CO(2) in soil air may also increase the total C pool. In contrast| however| SOC pool may decrease because of: (i) increase in rate of respiration and mineralization| (ii) increase in losses by soil erosion| and (iii) decrease in protective effects of stable aggregates which encapsulate organic matter. Furthermore| the relative increase in temperature projected to be more in arctic and boreal regions| will render Cryosols under permafrost from a net sink to a net source of CO(2) if and when permafrost thaws. Thus| SOC pool of world soils may decrease with increase in mean global temperature. In contrast| the biotic pool may increase primarily because of the CO(2) fertilization effect. The magnitude of CO(2) fertilization effect may be constrained by lack of essential nutrients (e.g.| N| P) and water. The potential of SOC sequestration in agricultural soils of Europe is 70-190 Tg C yr(-1). This potential is realizable through adoption of recommended land use and management| and restoration of degraded soils and ecosystems including wetlands. 8674,2008,3,3,Soil carbon storage capacity as a tool to prioritize areas for carbon sequestration,Carbon dioxide (CO(2))| one of the major components of greenhouse gases| is of major concern in terms of the global warming phenomenon. To mitigate the effect of atmospheric CO(2)| carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been found to be an important tool. The present study aims at explaining the role of soils as one of the most important natural resources in enhancing CCS. Soils capture and store both organic and inorganic forms of carbon and thus act both as source and sink for atmospheric CO(2). The datasets developed on CCS of soils permit us to generate thematic maps on soil carbon stocks| which may serve as ready reckoners for planners in prioritizing C sequestration programmes. 9119,2008,2,4,Soil desiccation in the Loess Plateau of China,Soil desiccation usually takes place below the depth of soil affected by rainfall infiltration (about 1-3 m) with relatively low water content| and is one kind of particular hydrological phenomena in semi-arid and semi-humid regions of the Loess Plateau in China. This desiccation results from the excessive depletion of deep soil water by artificial vegetation and long-term insufficient rainwater supply| which is difficult to disappear with land use change. Due to the influence of global warming during 1950-2000| large-scale vegetation rehabilitation aggravated water scarcity and led to soil desiccation in the deep soil layer in the Loess Plateau. From southeast to northwest| soil desiccation becomes more intensive with lower water content and bigger range in depth due to drier climate and lower water holding capacity. The range of soil desiccation has a close relationship with root distribution of plant| and its intensity varies with the types and ages of vegetation. The climate drought| soil properties and soil water cycle characteristics might be the precondition for the occurrence of soil desiccation| and artificial vegetation with improper type and exorbitant productivity could have accelerated this process in range and intensity. Soil desiccation has obviously negative effects on water cycle in soils| greatly reduces the anti-drought capacity of plants| and heavily influences the growth and natural succession of vegetation. In order to reduce the range| intensity| and negative effects of soil desiccation| proper types of vegetation should be selected according to rainfall and soil water conditions| and the control of vegetation density and productivity should be considered together with soil-water conservation measures. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1298,2008,2,3,Soil erosion from sugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate change induced seasonal precipitation variations,This study estimates the implications of projected seasonal variations in rainfall quantities caused by climate change for water erosion rates by means of a modeling case study on sugar beet cultivation in the Central European region of Upper-Austria. A modified version of the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney erosion model was used to assess soil losses in one conventional and three conservation tillage systems. The model was employed to a climatic reference scenario (1960-89) and a climate change scenario (2070-99). Data on precipitation changes for the 2070-99 scenario were based on the TPCC SR-ES A2 emission scenario as simulated by the regional climate model HadRM3H. Weather data in daily timesteps| for both scenarios| were generated by the stochastic weather generator LARS WG 3.0. The HadRM3H climate change simulation did not show any significant differences in annual precipitation totals| but strong seasonal shifts of rainfall amounts between 10 and 14% were apparent. This intra-annual precipitation change resulted in a net-decrease of rainfall amounts in erosion sensitive months and an overall increase of rainfall in a period| in which the considered agricultural area proved to be less prone to erosion. The predicted annual average soil losses under climate change declined in all tillage systems by 11 to 24%| which is inside the margins of uncertainty typically attached to climate change impact studies. Annual soil erosion rates in the conventional tillage system exceeded 10 t ha(-1) a(-1) in both climate scenarios. Compared to these unsustainably high soil losses the conservation tillage systems show reduced soil erosion rates by between 49 and 87%. The study highlights the importance of seasonal changes in climatic parameters for the discussion about the impacts of global climate change on future soil erosion rates in Central Europe. The results also indicate the high potential of adaptive land-use management for climate change response strategies in the agricultural sector. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1162,2008,2,4,Soil microbial responses to temporal variations of moisture and temperature in a Chihuahuan Desert Grassland,Global climate change models indicate that storm magnitudes will increase in many areas throughout southwest North America| which could result in up to a 25% increase in seasonal precipitation in the Big Bend region of the Chihuahuan Desert over the next 50 years. Seasonal precipitation is a key limiting factor regulating primary productivity| soil microbial activity| and ecosystem dynamics in arid and semiarid regions. As decomposers| soil microbial communities mediate critical ecosystem processes that ultimately affect the success of all trophic levels| and the activity of these microbial communities is primarily regulated by moisture availability. This research is focused on elucidating soil microbial responses to seasonal and yearly changes in soil moisture| temperature| and selected soil nutrient and edaphic properties in a Sotol Grassland in the Chihuahuan Desert at Big Bend National Park. Soil samples were collected over a 3-year period in March and September (2004-2006) at 0-15 cm soil depth from 12 3 x 3 m community plots. Bacterial and fungal carbon usage (quantified using Biolog 96-well micro-plates) was related to soil moisture patterns (ranging between 3.0 and 14%). In addition to soil moisture| the seasonal and yearly variability of soil bacterial activity was most closely associated with levels of soil organic matter| extractable NH(4)-N| and soil pH. Variability in fungal activity was related to soil temperatures ranging between 13 and 26 degrees C. These findings indicate that changes in soil moisture| coupled with soil temperatures and resource availability| drive the functioning of soil-microbial dynamics in these desert grasslands. Temporal patterns in microbial activity may reflect the differences in the ability of bacteria and fungi to respond to seasonal patterns of moisture and temperature. Bacteria were more able to respond to moisture pulses regardless of temperature| while fungi only responded to moisture pulses during cooler seasons with the exception of substantial increased magnitudes in precipitation occurring during warmer months. Changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation will alter the proportional contribution of bacteria and fungi to decomposition and nitrogen mineralization in this desert grassland. 8879,2008,2,4,Soil respiration in a subtropical montane cloud forest in Taiwan,Little is known about carbon budgets for tropical and subtropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) ecosystems. Information about the Soil CO(2) efflux from these ecosystems is particularly scarce| although they have been shown to have special hydrological regimes which might be important in controlling soil respiration. In this study| we used an automatic chamber system to measure soil respiration rates at the Chi-Lan Mountain forest site. The half-hourly dataset was used for analyzing the controlling factors and mechanisms of soil respiration. A manipulation experiment was conducted in the field by applying 3-fold and 1-fold aboveground litter to the soil surface and measuring the respective soil respiration rates using the static alkali chamber method. The results showed that soil respiration rates have a positive exponential correlation with soil temperature and a negative exponential correlation with soil water content. An empirical model relating soil respiration (R(s)) to soil temperature (T) and soil water content (theta) is R(s) = -0.095 + e(0.88+0.10T-6.99 theta) with R(2) = 0.83. The annual soil respiration rate calculated using this model was 176 g C m(-2) y(-1). This extremely low value might be caused by the permanently high soil moisture and the relative lower mean annual temperature compared to other sites that receive similar amounts of precipitation. The 3-fold and 1-fold litter treatments resulted in significantly higher soil CO(2) efflux compared to the chambers with no litter. The magnitude of difference diminished to negligible levels 6 months after treatment. About 10% of the annual soil respiration was contributed by the mineralization of fresh aboveground litter. The carbon mass loss of the decomposing litter during the first 6 months was mainly due to leaching of dissolved organic carbon (75%) and secondarily due to mineralization of CO(2). From the results of this study| we hypothesized that the TMCFs may be vulnerable to global warming since the drying of the soil may change the soil from being a carbon sink to being a carbon source| thereby releasing soil organic carbon that had been stored for a long period of time. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8625,2008,5,4,Solar activity and its influence on climate,Solar activity| as manifested by its many equatorial as well as high-latitude components of short-term variability is regulated by the Sun's dynamo. This constitutes an intricate interplay between the solar toroidal and poloidal magnetic field components. The dynamo originates in the tachocline| which is a thin layer situated about 200|000 km beneath the solar surface. The dynamo is a non-linear system with deterministic chaotic elements| hence in principle unpredictable. Yet there are regularities in the past behaviour| such as the Grand Maxima (example: the recent high maximum of the 2nd half of the 20th century) the Grand Minima (e.g. the Maunder Minimum between 1650 and 1710) and the Regular Oscillations such as those between 1730 and 1923. Their occurrences are described by a phase diagram in which a specific point can be identified: the Transition Point. This diagram plays an essential role in determining the future solar activity. Guided by its quasi-regularities and by recent measurements of the solar magnetic fields we find that the Sun is presently undergoing a transition between the past Grand Maximum and a forthcoming period of Regular Oscillations. We forecast that this latter period will start in a few years and will continue for at least one Gleissberg cycle and that the next solar maximum (expected for 2014) will be tow (R(max) similar to 68). We discuss the heliospheric drivers of Sun-climate interaction and find that the tow-latitude magnetic regions contribute most to tropospheric temperatures but that also the influence of the - so far always neglected - polar activity is significant. Subtraction of these components from the observed temperatures of the past 400 years shows a residual series of relative peaks and dips in the temperature. These tops and lows last for periods of the order of the Gleissberg cycle. One of these is the recent period of global warming| which| from this point of view| is not an exceptional period. 9066,2008,3,3,Solar pyrometallurgy - An historic review,As an alternative to fossil fuels| solar energy can help minimize global warming triatomic gas emissions (CO 2 and H2O) when used in metallurgical processes. This paper reviews the technical development in this field from the first patents filed in the late 1800s to present-day pilot work of solar zinc production. 9272,2008,2,3,Somali Jet Changes under the Global Warming,Somali Jet changes will influence the variability of Asian monsoon and climate. How would Somali Jet changes respond to the global warming in the future climate? To address this question| we first evaluate the ability of IPCC-AR4 climate models and perform the 20th century climate in coupled models (20C3M) experiments to reproduce the observational features of the low level Somali Jet in JJA (June-July-August) for the period 1976-1999. Then| we project and discuss the changes of Somali Jet under the climate change of Scenario A2 (SRESA2) for the period 2005-2099. The results show that 18 IPCC-AR4 models have performed better in describing the climatological features of Somali Jet in the present climate simulations. Analysis of Somali Jet intensity changes from the multi-model ensemble results for the period 2005-2099 shows a weakened Somali Jet in the early 21st century (2010-2040)| the strongest Somali Jet in the middle 21st century (2050-2060)| as well as the weakest Somali Jet at the end of the 21st century (2070-2090). Compared with the period 1976-1999| the intensity of Somali Jet is weakening in general| and it becomes the weakest at the end of the 21st century. The results also suggest that the relationship between the intensity of Somali Jet in JJA and the increment of global mean surface air temperature is nonlinear| which is reflected differently among the models| suggesting the uncertainty of the IPCC-AR4 models. Considering the important role of Somali Jet in the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon and climate of China| the variability of Somali Jet and its evolvement under the present climate or future climate changes need to be further clarified. 9169,2008,3,4,Sources of nitrous oxide from N-15-labelled animal urine and urea fertiliser with and without a nitrification inhibitor| dicyandiamide (DCD),A field lysimeter study was conducted to determine the sources of N2O emitted following the application of dairy cow urine and urea fertiliser labelled with N-15| with and without a nitrification inhibitor| dicyandiamide (DCD). The results show that the application of cow urine at 1000 kg N/ha significantly increased N2O emissions above that from urea applied alone at 25 kg N/ha. The application of urine seemed to have a priming effect| increasing N2O emissions from the soil N pool. Treating the soil with DCD significantly (P< 0.05) decreased N2O emissions from the urine-applied treatment by 72%. The percentage of N2O-N derived from the applied N was 53.1% in the urine-applied treatment and this was reduced to 29.9% when DCD was applied. On average| about 43% of the N2O emitted in the urine-applied treatments was from nitrification. The application of DCD did not have a major effect on the relative contributions of nitrification and denitrification to N2O emissions in the urine treatments. This indicates that the DCD nitrification inhibitor decreased the contributions to N2O emissions from both nitrification and denitrification. 8671,2008,4,4,Spatial and seasonal variations in CH4 in groundwater used for agriculture in central Japan,It is important to estimate the amount of CH4 released following the use of groundwater and to understand the dynamics of groundwater CH4 from the viewpoints of biogeochemical C cycle and global warming. We determined CH4 concentration in 216 groundwaters used for agriculture in Aichi Prefecture| central Japan| and analyzed the spatial and seasonal variations. The percentage of CH4-detected samples and mean CH4 concentration were high in deltaic regions| 88% and 239 mu mol L-1(n = 24) or 69% and 166 mu mol L-1 (n = 49)| low in alluvial fan (0%; n = 12) and mountainous area (35% and 11.7 mu mol L-1 (n = 22)). Methane was more frequently detected in groundwater with >50 m depth (84%; n = 37). Mean CH4 concentration for CH4-detected samples from >50 in depth was also higher than those from <5 m depth| 248 versus 60.2 mu mol L-1. Among groundwater samples with <5 m depth| the probability of CH4 detection was higher tinder paddy fields. Seasonal variations in the concentration and stable C isotopic ratio of CH4 (delta C-13(CH4); -65 to -89 parts per thousand) were generally small in monitored groundwaters with 4-180 in depth| suggesting that CH4 produced mainly by CO2 reduction was preserved through a year. There were also shallow groundwaters (<5 m depth) showing adverse seasonal changes in CH4 concentration and delta C-13 CH4 (up to 20 parts per thousand). Such shallow groundwaters showed significant CH4 production in a 90-day incubation with maximum rates of 3.03-6.43 nmol day(-1). Acetoclastic methanogens were generally absent| while an addition of glucose and especially CO2/H-2 enhanced methanogenesis. CH4 oxidizing potential was also observed in an aerobic incubation. These results suggested that the production/oxidation of CH4 in situ or at the source was responsible for the seasonal variations in CH4 concentration. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9105,2008,5,4,Spatial and temporal distribution of the Cryptospirifer fauna (middle Permian brachiopods) in the tethyan realm and its paleogeographic implications,The middle Permian Cryptospirifer fauna (brachiopod) has hitherto been found in more than 30 localities in the Yangtze Platform| South China. Examination of data from various localities shows that it occurs stratigraphically in three intervals in the range from the upper Kungurian to Wordian. In the Baoshan block in western Yunnan the fauna occurs in the basal part of the Daaozi Formation and is of possibly an early Wordian age. Outside China the Cryptospirifer fauna has been reported from central and northwest Iran and central Turkey| where the fauna may have an age around the Wordian\\Capitanian boundary. Rapid global warming since the late Early Permian and possession of other suitable environmental factors such as proper substrate| clastic input and water depth enabled the Gondwana-derived Baoshan Block and related tectono-stratigraphic units in Iran and Turkey to host the Cryptospirifer fauna| a fauna evolved in the Yangtze Platform that is a type area of the Cathaysian province. 8632,2008,2,4,Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the bacterial communities in stream epilithic biofilms,The spatial and temporal variability in bacterial communities within freshwater systems is poorly understood. The bacterial composition of stream epilithic biofilms across a range of different spatial and temporal scales both within and between streams and across the profile of individual stream rocks was characterised using a community DNA-fingerprinting technique (Automated Ribosomal Intergenic Spacer Analysis| ARISA). The differences in bacterial community structure between two different streams were found to be greater than the spatial variability within each stream site| and were larger than the weekly temporal variation measured over a 10-week study period. Greater variations in bacterial community profiles were detected on different faces of individual stream rocks than between whole rocks sampled within a 9-m stream section. Stream temperature was found to be the most important determinant of bacterial community variability using distance-based redundancy analysis (dbRDA) of ARISA data| which may have broad implications for riparian zone management and ecological change as a consequence of global warming. The combination of ARISA with multivariate statistical methods and ordination| such as multidimensional scaling (MDS)| permutational MANOVA and RDA| provided rapid and effective methods for quantifying and visualising variation in bacterial community structure| and to identify potential drivers of ecological change. 8506,2008,2,3,Spatial and temporal projected distribution of four crop plants in Egypt,This study focuses on the management of the local agroecosystems in order to adapt planting or sowing practices for the projected climate change scenarios. It is projected that there will be increased air temperature throughout all four seasons in the coming 100 years| from the southern towards the northern parts of Egypt. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of that increased air temperature on the spatial and temporal distribution of four of the major economic crops in Egypt. The study species are cotton (Gossypium barbadense L.| cv. Giza 89)| wheat (Triticum aestivum L.| cv. Gemiza 9)| rice (Oryza stiva L.| cv. Sakha 101) and maize (Zea mays L.| cv. Hybrid 10). Optimum air temperature allowing maximum growth for each of the study crop cultivars and the current and projected air temperature patterns in the future years were used for projection of the seasonal and crop distribution maps in the years 2005| 2025| 2050| 2075 and 2100. Results showed that sowing dates of a target crop may be managed in order to allow maximum predicted planting area in the same region. The current maximum area suitable for planting the Cotton crop in Egypt (104 thousand Fadden/year; one Fadden = 0.96 hectare or 0.42 acre) showed few variations over the coming hundred years. In this case| the sowing dates should be changed from the hotter months (February to April) to the cooler months (January to February). Alternatively| a great reduction in the area planted by Wheat crop was predicted in the coming 100 years. Despite the early planting| a reduction of about 147 thousand Fadden/year was projected by the year 2075. On the other hand| with earlier sowing dates| the maximum areas that are planted by Rice and Maize may not be greatly affected by the projected increase in air temperature. 8489,2008,3,3,Spatial organization| transport| and climate change: Comparing instruments of spatial planning and policy,Approaching the analysis of climate policies from a spatial organization perspective is necessary for realizing both efficient and effective mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In particular| it allows assessing the potential contribution of specific mechanisms of spatial organization and related spatial planning and policy to climate policy goals. So far| this spatial organization angle of climate policy has hardly received attention in the literature. The main sector significantly contributing to GHG emissions and sensitive to spatial organization and planning is Urban transport. A qualitative evaluation of the available spatial organization policy options is provided| on the basis of four standard 'E criteria' and a decomposition of CO2 emissions. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9049,2008,2,4,Spatial simulation model to predict the Colorado potato beetle invasion under different management strategies,The Colorado potato beetle (CPB)| a serious pest of potato| is currently spreading north in Europe. We investigated the risk of CPB establishment in Finland and control methods for the case when beetle life history characters change due to global warming or as an adaptation to colder climate. Analysis with a spatially explicit simulation model supported the current management policy in Finland (efficient eradication and one year field quarantine) but changes in CPB viability| such as decreased winter mortality or increased number of offspring would render them inefficient. Longer quarantine times would be needed to effectively prevent the CPB establishment and spread. As an option we investigated Bt-potato cultivation integrated to other control methods and found that it was already efficient when used as a sole strategy but its benefits may be reduced by the adaptability of the Colorado potato beetle. 8780,2008,4,3,Spatial variability in long-term changes of climate and oceanographic conditions in Korea,I evaluated long-term changes in hydrological conditions (temperature| salinity and dissolved oxygen) in Korean sea waters in relation to the regional land climate change (air temperature and precipitation) based on available meteorological and oceanographic data. Regression analyses| spatial patterns and cross-correlations on the climatologic and hydrological factors suggested that industrialization processes and related urban heat-island effects during the past 37 years from 1968 to 2005 in South Korea have increased land surface temperatures by 1.267 degrees C| at least for the urban areas| and subsequently increased sea surface temperatures by 0.975 degrees C and decreased salinities by 0.229. The influence of land surface temperature on the sea water temperature reached at least 75-m depth. Regarding the causality in the land-ocean climate changes| air-temperature changes preceded sea water temperature change by 0-2 months in spring and summer| but the sequence could be reversed| possibly because of potential heat held by the ocean. This study demonstrated that human factors have been driving warning influences on regional sea waters| impacting marine ecosystems and changing dominant fish species in commercial fishery catches of Korea. 8810,2008,4,4,Spatial variability in subsurface warming over the last three decades; insight from repeated borehole temperature measurements in The Netherlands,Subsurface temperatures around the world are changing in response to accelerated surface atmospheric temperature (SAT) rise| but are also impacted by other natural and anthropogenic changes in surface environmental conditions which alter the surface energy balance. Improved understanding of the latter influences is important for geothermal climate applications and to generate a comprehensive knowledge-framework of subsurface warming| including inherent spatial variability. Here I examine sixteen wells in a relatively small area in The Netherlands| each with two available temperature logs recorded some three decades apart. Temperature differences of the log pairs reveal marked differences in subsurface warming amongst the wells for this time period. Forward modelling of the observed temperature changes| using surface air temperature (SAT) forcing| shows that a considerable part of this inter-site variability may be caused by inter-site differences in thermal properties and groundwater flow conditions. However| for some of the wells these factors are insufficient| implying contributions from non-SAT-driven changes in ground surface temperature (GST). In one case an anomalous decrease in GST can be linked to back-growth of the canopy after forest cutting. For another well site| GST warming has been less than SAT warming in the absence of apparent changes in surface conditions| indicating local| subtle influences on the surface energy balance independent of SAT. The results demonstrate that repeated borehole temperature logging resolves key uncertainties and ambiguities pertaining to interpretation of individual temperature logs. The study further highlights the importance of establishing high-quality borehole temperature databases| also for these relatively complex settings with dynamic and variable surface conditions. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8860,2008,2,4,Spatial-Temporal Variability of Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Concentrations and Concurrent Atmospheric Teleconnections,Because the Arctic is so integrally connected with the Earth's climate system| there is concern that the recent era of global warming has irreversibly altered the polar sea Ice cover. This can have global consequences. However| we need to improve our knowledge of sea ice-atmosphere teleconnections if we are to increase our confidence in such climate change scenarios. In this paper| we apply the method of principal components analysis to twenty years of pentad-averaged Arctic sea ice concentration anomaly data derived from satellite observations to retrieve the most significant spatial and temporal patterns. We then linked these patterns to coincident 500 mb geopotential height (500Z) data. The strongest spatial-temporal ice concentration anomaly pattern over the 1980-1999 period was the phase-shifted anomalies between the Greenland and Barents Seas and the Labrador Sea and in Davis Strait. We found this pattern to be associated with strong low pressure anomalies over the North Atlantic and is significantly correlated with the large-scale atmospheric patterns of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Nino. Other regions where spatially and temporally consistent patterns of anomalous ice concentrations were identified include the Beaufort Sea| on the Siberian side of the Arctic Basin| and the Sea of Okhotsk. We identify the atmospheric patterns coincident with these anomalies. We conclude that our approach of linking PCA results of ice anomaly data with highly loading 500Z patterns is an effective analysis method. We recommend that this study be extended to link full atmospheric PCA results with the sea ice pentads used here. 1178,2008,2,4,Spatiotemporal change in China's frost days and frost- free season| 1955-2000,[1] From 1955 to 2000| China has experienced a decrease in the number of frost days| while the length of the frost-free season between the last spring freeze and the first fall frost has increased. Three distinct regimes can be detected in the time series: up to about 1973| the annual number of frost days was about 2 d higher than the 1961-1990 average; from 1973 to 1985| the annual number of frost days held close to that average with remarkably little interannual variability; and after 1985| the annual number of frost days decreased rapidly with distinct reversal around 1992. The dates of first and last frost show two patterns: before 1980| these dates fluctuated around the 1961-1990 average| but after 1980 (and especially from 1993) the frost-free season was rapidly lengthened. The numbers of frost days are highly correlated with minimum temperature (Tmin) in north China in spring and fall; while in south China frost dates correlate with minimum temperatures in winter. Generally| the seasonal relationships between Tmin and frost days are significant in both the temporal and spatial domains when seasonal average Tmin falls within a range of +/- 10 degrees C. Analyzing annual and seasonal influences on the number of frost days| we find that water vapor plays a significant role. Regionally| the greater influence on the length of the frost-free season in south China has been the delayed onset of the autumn frost| while in north China the spring and autumn dates each have a comparable influence on the length of the frost-free season. The initial lengthening of the frost-free season lagged about 10 years behind the rapid increase in daily minimum temperatures| while the decrease in the annual number of frost days lagged by about 15 years. 1196,2008,2,4,Spatiotemporal Variation in Avian Diversity and the Short-term Effects of Typhoons in Tropical Reef-karst Forests on Taiwan,The diversity and spatiotemporal variation of avifauna in different settings of tropical coral reef-karst forests on the Hengchun Peninsula| Taiwan| were examined. The short-term effects on bird assemblages following two typhoons that severely impacted Hengchun were investigated. Line-transect census recorded 46 species of birds| dominated by forest-associated gleaning insectivores or omnivores| and 13% of the endemics of Taiwan. Prior to the typhoons| the continuous-canopy forest was close to the open forest setting in species evenness| but the species heterogeneity was lower and more variable. The continuous-canopy and open forests differed in overall avian composition| whereas two continuous-canopy forest settings were similar in composition. Typhoons did not significantly lower the mean numbers of either species or birds| nor affect the pattern of their spatial distribution in the forest settings. However| they did increase similarities in the species composition between the open and continuous-canopy settings| and caused a decrease in the similarity between forest edges and interiors. Overall| typhoons affected species composition more in the continuous-canopy forests than in the open setting| and more in interiors than in forest edges. This pattern corresponded to an increase in the species heterogeneity and species evenness in the forest interiors| indicating movements of birds from the edge toward the interior. Among different functional groups| gleaning omnivores tended to retain a pattern of higher abundance in the open forest setting than in the continuous-canopy forests| whereas the abundances of gleaning insectivores and cavity-nesting frugivores tended to decline in the latter or both settings. 1257,2008,2,4,Spatiotemporal vegetation cover variations in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under global climate change,Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and the related Principal Components (PC) analysis are used to extract valuable vegetation cover derived information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA-AVHRR)'s Leaf Area Index (LAI) satellite images. Results suggest that from 1982 to 2000 global climate change has contributed to an increase in vegetation cover in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The correlation between rainfall and LAI EOF PC1 and PC2 indicates that rainfall is the major climatic factor influencing interannual variations of average vegetation cover throughout the entire Plateau. However| annual mean vegetation cover trends in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are mainly out of phase with air temperature increasing| which is primarily responsible for nonsynchronous changes of vegetation cover. In the southern ridge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau| recent warming trends contribute to humid weather and favorable conditions for vegetation growth. By contrast| higher temperatures have led to arid conditions and insufficient rainfall in the northern part of the Plateau| leading to drought and other climatic conditions which are not conducive to increased vegetation cover. 8841,2008,2,3,Species richness and adaptive capacity in animal communities: lessons from China,Climate change is already threatening the long-term viability of many important protected areas| and as global warming accelerates this will increase. Lowered water tables| melting permafrost| changing vegetation zones| combined with the fragmentary distribution of wilderness areas| will cause a wave of local extinctions as species fail to adapt to changing conditions in time or fail to move as climate zones advance across the face of the continents. Ecologists can predict and even model likely scenarios| but can we do anything to help safeguard valuable biodiversity or must we passively document Earth's changes and accept these losses? Studies of the extraordinary species richness of the Hengduan Mountains and the Qionglai Mountain ranges of South-West China and of the Changbaishan Mountains in North-East China give us some optimism. This paper provides an explanation for the high species richness in these ranges and identifies design principles that can be used in the selection of protected areas or in the revision of existing protected area boundaries to enhance their ecological resilience and allow them to maintain higher levels of biological diversity under conditions of climate change or other disturbance. 8910,2008,2,4,Spread of plant pathogens and insect vectors at the northern range margin of cypress in Italy,The Mediterranean cypress (Cupressus sempervirens) is a multi-purpose tree widely used in the Mediterranean region. An anthropogenic range expansion of cypress has taken place at the northern margin of the range in Italy in recent decades| driven by ornamental planting in spite of climatic constraints imposed by low winter temperature. The expansion has created new habitats for pathogens and pests| which strongly limit tree survival in the historical (core) part of the range. Based on the enemy release hypothesis| we predicted that damage should be lower in the expansion area. By comparing tree and seed cone damage by pathogens and pests in core and expansion areas of Trentino| a district in the southern Alps| we showed that tree damage was significantly higher in the core area. Seed cones of C. sempervirens are intensively colonized by an aggressive and specific pathogen (the canker fungus Seiridium cardinale| Coelomycetes)| associated with seed insect vectors Megastigmus wachtli (Hymenoptera Torymidae) and Orsillus maculatus (Heteroptera Lygaeidae). In contrast| we observed lower tree damage in the expansion area| where a non-aggressive fungus (Pestalotiopsis funerea| Coelomycetes) was more frequently associated with the same insect vectors. Our results indicate that both insect species have a great potential to reach the range margin| representing a continuous threat of the arrival of fungal pathogens to trees planted at extreme sites. Global warming may accelerate this process since both insects and fungi profit from increased temperature. In the future| cypress planted at the range margin may then face similar pest and pathogen threats as in the historical range. (c) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved. 8453,2008,2,4,Spread of ticks and tick-borne diseases in Germany due to global warming,Tick-transmitted diseases like tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme Borreliosis have been well known in Germany for decades. Global climate changes may influence the emergence and reemergence of diseases. Ongoing research now gives an additional focus on other tick-borne pathogens such as Coxiella burnetii| Rickettsia conorii| Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Babesia spp.| the causative agents of Q-fever| Mediterranean spotted fever| Anaplasmosis and Babesiosis| respectively. The epidemiology of these pathogens was investigated oil ticks as well as on rodents| the main hosts. Therefore adults of Dermacentor spp. (n = 862) and rodents (n = 119) were collected and examined for the existence of C burnetii and Rickettsia spp. by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). In none of the ticks and rodents C burnetii could be detected| in contrast to Rickettsia spp. where the infection rate in ticks was about 20%. Over and above that| nymphs and adults of Ixodes ricinus were also collected and investigated by PCR for A. phagocytophilum (n = 5|4424)| Rickettsia helvetica (n = 1|187) and Babesia spp. (n = 3|113). Thereby infection rates of 1%| 8.9% and 1%| respectively| could be determined. The prevalence in rodents was 5.3% for A. phagocytophilum and 0.8% for Babesia microti. None of the rodents was R. helvetica positive. 9236,2008,2,4,Stability of genetic variance and covariance for reproductive characters in the face of climate change in a wild bird population,Global warming has had numerous effects on populations of animals and plants| with many species in temperate regions experiencing environmental change at unprecedented rates. Populations with low potential for adaptive evolutionary change and plasticity will have little chance of persistence in the face of environmental change. Assessment of the potential for adaptive evolution requires the estimation of quantitative genetic parameters| but it is as yet unclear what impact| if any| global warming will have on the expression of genetic variances and covariances. Here we assess the impact of a changing climate on the genetic architecture underlying three reproductive traits in a wild bird population. We use a large| long-term| data set collected on great tits (Parus major) in Wytham Woods| Oxford| and an 'animal model' approach to quantify the heritability of| and genetic correlations among| laying date| clutch size and egg mass during two periods with contrasting temperature conditions over a 40-year period (1965-1988 [cooler] vs. 1989-2004 [warmer]). We found significant additive genetic variance and heritability for all traits under both temperature regimes. We also found significant negative genetic covariances and correlations between clutch size and egg weight during both periods| and among laying date and clutch size in the colder years only. The overall G matrix comparison among periods| however| showed only a minor difference among periods| thus suggesting that genotype by environment interactions are negligible in this context. Our results therefore suggest that despite substantial changes in temperature and in mean laying date phenotype over the last decades| and despite the large sample sizes available| we are unable to detect any significant change in the genetic architecture of the reproductive traits studied. 1198,2008,2,3,Steric sea-level change and its impact on the gravity field caused by global climate change,It is sometimes assumed that steric sea-level variations do not produce a gravity signal as no net mass change| thus no change of ocean bottom pressure is associated with it. Analyzing the output of two CO(2) emission scenarios over a period of 2000 years in terms of steric sea-level changes| we try to quantify the gravitational effect of steric sea-level variations. The first scenario| computed with version 2.6 of the Earth System Climate Model developed at the University of Victoria| Canada (UVic ESCM)| is implemented with a linear CO(2) increase of 1% of the initial concentration of 365 ppm and shows a globally averaged steric effect of 5.2 m after 2000 years. In the second scenario| computed with UVic ESCM version 2.7| the CO(2) concentration increases quasi-exponentially to a level of 3011 ppm and is hold fixed afterwards. The corresponding globally averaged steric effect in the first 2000 years is 2.3 m. We show| due to the (vertical) redistribution of ocean water masses (expansion or contraction)| the steric effect results also in a small change in the Earth's gravity field compared to usually larger changes associated with net mass changes. Maximum effects for computation points located on the initial ocean surface can be found in scenario 1| with the effect on gravitational attraction and potential ranging from 0.0 to -0.7.10(-5) m s(-2) and -3.10(-3) to 6.10(-3) m(2) s(-2)| respectively. As expected| the effect is not zero but negligible for practical applications. 1259,2008,3,4,Storage and dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in soil after grazing exclusion in Leymus chinensis grasslands of northern China,Land-use change can lead to| changes in soil carbon and (C) nitrogen (N) storage. This study aimed to determine the impact of long-term grazing exclusion| (GE)| on soil organic C and total N (TN) storage in| the Leymus chinensis grasslands of northern China and to estimate the| dynamics of recovery after GE. We investigated the aboveground biomass and soil organic C and TN storage in six contiguous plots along a GE chronosequence comprising free grazing| 3-yr GE| 8-yr GE| 20-yr GE| 24-yr GE| and 28-yr GE| Grazing exclusion for two decades increased the soil C and N storage by 35.7 and 14.6%| respectively| in the 0- to 40-cm soil layer. The aboveground net primary| productivity and soil C and N storage were the highest with 24-yr GE and the lowest with free grazing. The-storage increased logarithmically with the duration of GE; after| an initial rapid increase after the introduction of GE| die storage attained equilibrium after 20 yr. A logarithmic regression analysis revealed 86.8 and 87.1% variation in the soil C storage and 74.2 and 80.7% variation in the soil N storage in the 0- to 10-cm and 0- to 40-cm soil layers| respectively. Based on these results| we suggest that two decades of GE would restore the L. chinensis grasslands from being lightly degraded to a stable productive condition with good soil C and N storage capacity. Our results demonstrated that by implementing GE| the temperate grasslands of northern China could facilitate| siginificant C and N storage on decade scales in the context of mitigating global climate change. 1242,2008,2,4,Stress tolerance in plants via habitat-adapted symbiosis,We demonstrate that native grass species from coastal and geothermal habitats require symbiotic fungal endophytes for salt and heat tolerance| respectively. Symbiotically conferred stress tolerance is a habitat-specific phenomenon with geothermal endophytes conferring heat but not salt tolerance| and coastal endophytes conferring salt but not heat tolerance. The same fungal species isolated from plants in habitats devoid of salt or heat stress did not confer these stress tolerances. Moreover| fungal endophytes from agricultural crops conferred disease resistance and not salt or heat tolerance. We define habitat-specific| symbiotically-conferred stress tolerance as habitat-adapted symbiosis and hypothesize that it is responsible for the establishment of plants in high-stress habitats. The agricultural| coastal and geothermal plant endophytes also colonized tomato (a model eudicot) and conferred disease| salt and heat tolerance| respectively. In addition| the coastal plant endophyte colonized rice (a model monocot) and conferred salt tolerance. These endophytes have a broad host range encompassing both monocots and eudicots. Interestingly| the endophytes also conferred drought tolerance to plants regardless of the habitat of origin. Abiotic stress tolerance correlated either with a decrease in water consumption or reactive oxygen sensitivity/generation but not to increased osmolyte production. The ability of fungal endophytes to confer stress tolerance to plants may provide a novel strategy for mitigating the impacts of global climate change on agricultural and native plant communities. 8944,2008,5,3,Strontium isotope stratigraphy in the upper Cenomanian shallow-water carbonates of the southern Apennines: Short-term perturbations of marine Sr-87/Sr-86 during the oceanic anoxic event 2,Strontium isotope stratigraphy of shallow-water carbonates from the southern Apennines (Italy) indicates that the late Cenomanian-early Turonian evolution of marine Sr-87/Sr-86 is not accurately depicted by the marine reference curve. Using the low-Mg biotic calcite of well-preserved rudist shells as a study material and carbon isotope stratigraphy for correlation to the standard ammonite biozonal scheme of Northern Europe| new Sr-87/Sr-96 values are proposed for four different stratigraphic levels: the middle and uppermost part of the guerangeri zone| the lower and upper part of the geslinianum zone. The southern Apennines data suggest that a sharp positive shift at the onset of oceanic anoxic event 2 precedes the well-known Sr isotope negative shift. The positive shift is interpreted in terms of enhanced rates of chemical weathering| driven by global warming forced by volcanogenic CO2 outgassing. A stratified ocean is invoked to reconcile the high gradient and the short lag time of the perturbation with estimates of present-day total mass and residence time of strontium in the ocean. The sharp switch to the negative shift is related to the collapse of water-column density gradient| driven by thermal instability during a late Cenomanian cool event. More active ocean circulation suddenly delivered to surface waters the signal of increased submarine volcanism that had accumulated in deep waters. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1351,2008,2,4,STUDY OF LITTER DECOMPOSITION INTENSITY IN LITTER MANIPULATIVE TRIALS IN SIKFOKUT CAMBISOLS,Soil organic matter supply is mainly derived from plant litter. Waring & Schlesinger (1985) found that plant litter decomposition provides 69-87 % of nutrients required for forest development. The global climate change caused local changes in Hungary (Varallyay| 2007)| which can influence the litter production of the natural vegetation. In the frame of Sikfokut DIRT (Detritus Input and Removal Treatments) project the effect of litter amount was studied on the activity of soil microbes (Fekete et al.| 2007)| and speed of organic matter decomposition applying different kind of wood| leaf| root and different amount of plant litter. In this paper we discuss the degree of decomposition of leaf litter and cellulose cotton wool placed in the soil in the respect of different litter treatment plots. 8540,2008,3,3,Study of the carbon dioxide chemical fixation-activation by guanidines,Fixation of CO(2) is one of the most important priorities of the scientific community dedicated to reduce global warming. In this work| we propose new methods for the fixation of CO2 using the guanidine bases tetramethylguanidine (TMG) and 1|3|4|6|7|8-hexahydro-2H-pyrimido[1|2-a]-pyrimidine (TBD). In order to understand the reactions occurring during the CO(2) fixation and release processes| we employed several experimental methods| including solution and solid-state NMR| FTIR| and coupled TGA-FTIR. Quantum mechanical NMR calculations were also carried out. Based on the results obtained| we concluded that CO(2) fixation with both TMG and TBD guanidines is a kinetically reversible process| and the corresponding fixation products have proved to be useful as transcarboxylating compounds. Afterward| CO(2) thermal releasing from this fixation product with TBD was found to be an interesting process for CO(2) capture and isolation purposes. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9271,2008,3,3,Study of the simulated heat affected zone of creep resistant 9-12% advanced chromium steel,Global warming leads to research-development attempts worldwide with a view to reduce CO2 emission. Therefore| in the energy supply sector| a special focus has been directed to further development of steels that can endure the ultra-supercritical steam conditions. Our article presents the basic study on weldability of the advanced 9-12% chromium steel applying the thermomechanical simulation of the heat affected zone (HAZ). The changes of microstructures and material properties of HAZ before and after postweld heat treatment (PWHT) have been analyzed and compared by light microscopy| scanning electron microscopy (SEM)| hardness measurements| and impact toughness testing. Microstructures at representative points during typical welding cycle and PWHT were studied in details. 8768,2008,2,4,Study on the snow distribution and influencing factors in Northern Tibet based on remote sensing information,Based on two kinds of remote sensing data (snow depth of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager SSM/I from 1993 to 2004| snow cover of NOAA/AVHRR from 1996 to 2004) and snow depth and snow cover days of six stations over northern Tibet from 1966 to 2003| we studied snow cover distribution in temporal and spatial scales| and analyzed the influencing factors of snow in Northern Tibet region. The result showed that the remote sensing snow data (retrieval from SSM/I| NOAA/AVHRR) was in general agreement with the weather stations data. In temporal scale| for the seasonal cycle| during 1966 to 2003| the snow cover extent increased rapidly in autumn and winter seasons in Northern Tibet. However| in spring (March-April-May)| snow cover extent did not show a continual decrease| whereas indicated a positive feedback. For the interannual cycle| from the end of 1960s the snow cover of Northern Tibet region reduced| but in 1980s| the snow cover increased as a whole| and from 1990s it decreased again. Thus| the snow cover variation showed a reducing-increasing-reducing dynamic process in the study area. The result of a wavelet analysis on temporal distributions of annual cumulative snow cover indicated that there were mainly oscillation periods of quasi-2 similar to 3 yr| quasi-9 yr| quasi-13 yr| and from the beginning of 1970s to the middle of 1990s| there was an oscillation period about quasi-5 yr. In spatial scale| the east part of Northern Tibet region was the main snow cover area| where the snow cover days exceeded 15 ten-days in each winter-spring| and were obviously distinguished from the western part of Northern Tibet region. The majority of snow cover pixels exist in altitude of 4900 similar to 5600 m. The greatest variance of snow cover was found in middle and eastern part of the Northern Tibet Plateau| i.e. Andu and Nierong regions. We selected two important factors influencing snow-cover i.e.| temperature| precipitation) and calculated multiple linear regressions. The result showed that the correlation coefficient between simulated annual cumulative snow days and observation data was 0.74. It revealed that temperature and precipitation are the main factors influencing the snow cover in Northern Tibet region. Global warming might be one reason causing snow cover declining in recent years in Northern Tibet region. However| the effect of precipitation seems larger than that of temperature. 8772,2008,2,4,Substrate quality and the temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition,Determining the relative temperature sensitivities of the decomposition of the different soil organic matter (SOM) pools is critical for predicting the long-term impacts of climate change on soil carbon (C) storage. Although kinetic theory suggests that the temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition should increase with substrate recalcitrance| there remains little empirical evidence to support this hypothesis. In the study presented here| sub-samples from a single bulk soil sample were frozen and sequentially defrosted to produce samples of the same soil that had been incubated for different lengths of time| up to a maximum of 124 days. These samples were then placed into an incubation system which allowed CO(2) production to be monitored constantly and the response of soil respiration to short-term temperature manipulations to be investigated. The temperature sensitivity of soil CO(2) production increased significantly with incubation time suggesting that| as the most labile SOM pool was depleted the temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition increased. This study is therefore one of the first to provide empirical support for kinetic theory. Further| using a modelling approach| we demonstrate that it is the temperature sensitivity of the decomposition of the more recalcitrant SOM pools that will determine long-term soil-C losses. Therefore| the magnitude of the positive feedback to global warming may have been underestimated in previous modelling studies. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8406,2008,2,3,Sudden| considerable reduction in recent uptake of anthropogenic CO(2) by the East/Japan Sea,The East/Japan Sea in the western temperate North Pacific is ventilated from the surface to the bottom over decades. Such short overturning circulation indicates that the anthropogenic CO(2) content of the East/Japan Sea is intimately tied to changing surface conditions over similarly short periods. Three surveys in the East/Japan Sea (1992| 1999 and 2007| respectively) have provided a rare opportunity to measure changes in the accumulation rate of anthropogenic CO2 in the East/Japan Sea over the past 15 years in response to changes in surface conditions. We found that the mean uptake rate of anthropogenic CO2 by the East/Japan Sea was 0.3 +/- 0.2 mol C m(-2) yr(-1) for the period 1999-2007| in marked contrast to the rate of 0.6 +/- 0.4 mol C m(-2) yr(-1) for the period 1992-1999. The striking feature is that nearly all anthropogenic CO2 taken up in the more recent period was confined to waters less than 300 m in depth (mean winter mixed layer depth). The rapid and substantial reduction in accumulation in the more recent period is surprising| and is attributed to considerable weakening of overturning circulation| which is responsible for transporting anthropogenic CO2 from the surface to the interior of the East/Japan Sea. This previously undocumented finding may be an indicator of future changes in the global ocean during the coming period of global warming. Citation: Park| G.-H.| K. Lee| and P. Tishchenko (2008)| Sudden| considerable reduction in recent uptake of anthropogenic CO(2) by the East/Japan Sea| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 35| L23611| doi:10.1029/2008GL036118. 9035,2008,2,4,Summer heatwaves promote blooms of harmful cyanobacteria,Dense surface blooms of toxic cyanobacteria in eutrophic lakes may lead to mass mortalities of fish and birds| and provide a serious health threat for cattle| pets| and humans. It has been argued that global warming may increase the incidence of harmful algal blooms. Here| we report on a lake experiment where intermittent artificial mixing failed to control blooms of the harmful cyanobacterium Microcystis during the summer of 2003| one of the hottest summers ever recorded in Europe. To understand this failure| we develop a coupled biological-physical model investigating how competition for light between buoyant cyanobacteria| diatoms| and green algae in eutrophic lakes is affected by the meteorological conditions of this extreme summer heatwave. The model consists of a phytoplankton competition model coupled to a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model| driven by meteorological data. The model predicts that high temperatures favour cyanobacteria directly| through increased growth rates. Moreover| high temperatures also increase the stability of the water column| thereby reducing vertical turbulent mixing| which shifts the competitive balance in favour of buoyant cyanobacteria. Through these direct and indirect temperature effects| in combination with reduced wind speed and reduced cloudiness| summer heatwaves boost the development of harmful cyanobacterial blooms. These findings warn that climate change is likely to yield an increased threat of harmful cyanobacteria in eutrophic freshwater ecosystems. 8695,2008,2,3,Summer Precipitation Changes in Northeast Asia from the AOGCM Global Warming Experiments,In order to evaluate the model performance in simulating the Northeast Asian summer climate| and to investigate the effect of global warming on the summer climate over the Northeast Asian region| the multi-model ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models in the historical (20C3M) and the scenarios (A2| A1B| B1) runs are analyzed| which is participating to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). From comparison of the observation and the 20C3M experiment| it is found that the multi-model ensemble quite well simulates the Northeast Asian summer precipitation and circulation| especially in the first two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes and the associated regressed field. The first EOF mode represents the decaying phase of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| which contributes to the development of the Philippines Sea anticyclone. The second one is associated with the fast transition of ENSO. In future climate| the increase of the precipitation to 2099 at A2| and A1B simulation reaches 10% compared with the mean precipitation for 1961-1990 over the Northeast Asian region. After the stabilization of the greenhouse gas concentration in 2100| the precipitation is enhanced during 30 or 50 years more due to the inertia inherent in the climate system. From EOF analysis| it seems that the increased Northeast Asian summer precipitation due to global warming is contributed by the effect of the enhanced monsoon circulation in the decaying phase of El Nino rather than the mean linear increase of global climate or the circulation in the fast transitional period of ENSO. 8605,2008,2,4,Summer relative humidity in northern Japan inferred from delta(18)O values of the tree ring in (1776-2002 AD): Influence of the paleoclimate indices of atmospheric circulation,The summer relative humidity (RH) changes in Hokkaido| northern Japan| since 1776 were reconstructed using the oxygen isotope ratios of the tree ring cellulose of two living oak trees. We investigated the direct relationships between the decadal-centennial variations in the summer RH in northern Japan and the climate indices of atmospheric circulation to understand the factors affecting the changes in the hydrological climate in northern Japan. The variations in the summer RH are negatively correlated with those in the annual PDO indices since 1781. This is probably because the humid southerly wind from the western Pacific Ocean blows toward northern Japan with the intensified Pacific high when the PDO index is lower. Further| the fluctuations in the summer RH are positively correlated with those in the summer AO index during 1781-1930| but they are negatively correlated with those in the summer AO during 1940-1997. During the 1930s| the AO index changed from the negative to positive on the average. The drastic shift in its correlation is explained by the difference between atmospheric circulations in the low-AO period (1899-1930) and the high-AO period (1970-2000). The summer RH in northern Japan was regulated by the summer AO during 1781-1930 (the cold period) and the annual PDO during 1940-1997 (the warm period). As a consequence of global warming| the midlatitude forcing such as PDO might become stronger than the high-latitude forcing such as AO on the hydrological climate in northern Japan. 1214,2008,2,4,Summer temperature variation and implications for juvenile Atlantic salmon,Temperature is important to fish in determining their geographic distribution. For cool- and cold-water fish| thermal regimes are especially critical at the southern end of a species' range. Although temperature is an easy variable to measure| biological interpretation is difficult. Thus| how to determine what temperatures are meaningful to fish in the field is a challenge. Herein| we used the Connecticut River as a model system and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) as a model species with which to assess the effects of summer temperatures on the density of age 0 parr. Specifically| we asked: (1) What are the spatial and temporal temperature patterns in the Connecticut River during summer? (2) What metrics might detect effects of high temperatures? and (3) How is temperature variability related to density of Atlantic salmon during their first summer? Although the most southern site was the warmest| some northern sites were also warm| and some southern sites were moderately cool. This suggests localized| within basin variation in temperature. Daily and hourly means showed extreme values not apparent in the seasonal means. We observed significant relationships between age 0 parr density and days at potentially stressful| warm temperatures (>= 23 degrees C). Based on these results| we propose that useful field reference points need to incorporate the synergistic effect of other stressors that fish encounter in the field as well as the complexity associated with cycling temperatures and thermal refuges. Understanding the effects of temperature may aid conservation efforts for Atlantic salmon in the Connecticut River and other North Atlantic systems. 8600,2008,4,3,Surface temperature cooling trends and negative radiative forcing due to land use change toward greenhouse farming in southeastern Spain,Greenhouse horticulture has experienced in recent decades a dramatic spatial expansion in the semiarid province of Almeria| in southeastern (SE) Spain| reaching a continuous area of 26|000 ha in 2007| the widest greenhouse area in the world. A significant surface air temperature trend of -0.3 degrees C decade(-1) in this area during the period 1983-2006 is first time reported here. This local cooling trend shows no correlation with Spanish regional and global warming trends. Radiative forcing (RF) is widely used to assess and compare the climate change mechanisms. Surface shortwave RF (SWRF) caused through clearing of pasture land for greenhouse farming development in this area is estimated here. We present the first empirical evidences to support the working hypothesis of the development of a localized forcing created by surface albedo change to explain the differences in temperature trends among stations either inside or far from this agricultural land. SWRF was estimated from satellite-retrieved surface albedo data and calculated shortwave outgoing fluxes associated with either uses of land under typical incoming solar radiation. Outgoing fluxes were calculated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data. A difference in mean annual surface albedo of +0.09 was measured comparing greenhouses surface to a typical pasture land. Strong negative forcing associated with land use change was estimated all year round| ranging from -5.0 W m(-2) to -34.8 W m(-2)| with a mean annual value of -19.8 W m(-2). According to our data of SWRF and local temperatures trends| recent development of greenhouse horticulture in this area may have masked local warming signals associated to greenhouse gases increase. 9133,2008,2,4,SUSPENDED SEDIMENT DYNAMICS IN THE MORTERATSCH PRO-GLACIAL ZONE| BERNINA ALPS| SWITZERLAND,Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the Ova da Morteratsch| Switzerland| measured during July 2007 was closely associated with discharge (Q) and showed statistically significant relationships at the p < 0.001 level at the proximal and distal ends of the 600 m pro-glacial zone. SSC predicted from 10-minute turbidity records gives a much more detailed insight into SSC fluctuations and identified SSC peaks which do not coincide with discharge peaks. Net (proximal - distal) 10-minute suspended sediment loads (SSL) are predominantly positive (i.e. suspended sediment is being stored in the reach) for most of the 7-19 July 2007 record. Net (proximal - distal) SSLs correlate closely with discharge for the first part of the record (7-13 July) but from 14 to 19 July suspended sediment exhaustion is in evidence and discrete phases of negative net SSL (i.e. sediment flushing) are likely for up to six hours on three separate days which coincide with phases of high discharge and exhaustion of the glacial suspended sediment sources. Analysis of Q at the Berninabach-Pontresina gauging station (5 km downstream) for the past five years revealed that maximum monthly discharges capable of generating sediment flushing events occur in an average of four months each year. The study emphasises the rapid change in suspended sediment transport and yields with distance from the glacier snout and highlights the importance of measurements as close to the glacier snout as possible if data are to be representative of the glaciated land up-valley. A better understanding of the processes of sediment exchange and the colonisation and stabilisation of sediment stores by vegetation in such pro-glacial zones is essential if we are to improve predictions of the impacts of climate change on river sediment dynamics and the subsequent effects on aquatic ecology. 1283,2008,3,3,Sustainable development as a framework for developing country participation in international climate change policies,The paper presents a number of ideas on how climate change policy implementation in developing countries can be supported by alternative international cooperation mechanisms that are based on stakeholder interests and policy priorities including broader economic and social development issues. It includes a brief review of current development policies| technological research and promotion efforts| and climate change that demonstrates that mutual policy initiatives undertaken by governments and the private sector actually have major positive impacts on climate change without being initiated by this global policy concern. Furthermore a number of examples are given on how future development objectives in Brazil| China| and India jointly can support economic and social goals and global climate change concerns if these goals are taken into consideration and supported by international cooperative mechanisms. The paper proposes international cooperative mechanisms that can support the implementation of integrated development and climate change policies. The mechanisms include an international sustainable development (SD) and Climate Finance Mechanism (SDCFM)| technology development and transition programmes| technology standards| and other measures. 9170,2008,3,4,Sustainable management of vehicle design,Ford of Europe's Product Sustainability Index (PSI) is a sustainability management tool directly used by engineers| i.e.| not by sustainability or life-cycle experts. PSI is looking at eight indicators reflecting environmental (life-cycle Global Warming Potential (GAT)| life-cycle air quality potential| sustainable materials| restricted substances and drive by exterior noise)| social (mobility capability and safety) and economic (life-cycle cost of ownership) vehicle attributes. Ford Galaxy and S-MAX are the first vehicles where this tool has been applied from the beginning of their development. The results show significant improvements compared to the predecessor. This has been externally reviewed according to ISO 14040. 8627,2008,3,4,Sustainable processes-The challenge of the 21st century for chemical engineering,The 21st century inherits stark challenges for human society: environmental degradation| global warming and shrinking fossil resources. All these problems are paired with a dramatic growth of the economy in China and India| home to 2.3 billion people. We need to make more from less and we need to do this while reducing our impact on nature by the order of magnitudes. This challenge is particularly tough for chemical engineering. This sector is on the one hand responsible for providing most of the products of daily consumption| the base for modern agriculture as well as energy carriers for power generation| transport| heating and cooling. on the other hand chemical engineering has a considerable impact on the environment| via its resource consumption| its emissions and the impact of its products. Chemical engineering will have to explore new ways in order to stay ahead of these challenges. The paper discusses some of the aspects of the changes that process engineering will face in the 21st century as it will widen its raw material base to include more renewable resources and simultaneously reduce its environmental impact. As a result| the structure of process industry will be transformed dramatically. Existing design principles and methods will also be challenged and adapted to the new challenges of sustainable development. Given the strong impact that the challenge of sustainable development will pose to process technology engineering education will have to change accordingly. For the first time in decades| process engineers will again be faced with developing new processes rather than process optimization. They will need to understand how to integrate processes into the ecosphere| how to set up raw material logistics and will have to deal with stake holders outside industry. The process concept will become more encompassing and include the life cycle of products. All these new skills must be taught to students today to make them fit for their carrier in the 21st century. (C) 2008 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1099,2008,2,4,Synergies between Agricultural Intensification and Climate Change Could Create Surprising Vulnerabilities for Crops,An inevitable consequence of global climate change is that altered patterns of temperature and precipitation threaten agriculture in marry tropical regions| requiring strategies of human adaptation. Moreover| the process of management intensification in agriculture has increased and may exacerbate vulnerability to climate extremes. Although many solutions have been presented| the role of simple agroecological and agroforestry management has been largely ignored. Some recent literature has shown how sustainable management may improve agroecological resistance to extreme climate events. We comment specifically on a prevalent form of agriculture throughout Latin America| the coffee agroforestry system. Results from the coffee literature have shown that shade management in coffee systems may mitigate the effects of extreme temperature and precipitation| thereby reducing the ecological and economic vulnerability of many rural farmers. We conclude that more traditional forms of agriculture can offer greater potential for adapting to changing conditions than do current intensive systems. 1055,2008,2,4,Synergisms among Fire| Land Use| and Climate Change in the Amazon,The Amazon is being rapidly transformed by fire. Logging and forest fragmentation sharply elevate fire incidence by increasing forest desiccation and fuel loads| and forests that have experienced a low-intensity surface fire are vulnerable to far more catastrophic fires. Satellites typically detect thermal signatures from 40 000 to 50 000 separate fires in the Amazon each year| and this number could increase as new highways and infrastructure expand across the basin. Many are concerned that large-scale deforestation| by reducing regional evapo-transpiration and creating moisture-trapping smoke plumes| will make the basin increasingly vulnerable to fire. The Amazon may also be affected by future global warming and atmospheric changes| although much remains uncertain. Most models suggest the basin will become warmer throughout this century| although there is no consensus about how precipitation will be affected. The most alarming scenarios project a permanent disruption of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation| leading to greatly increased drought or destructive synergisms between regional and global climate change in the Amazon. 8398,2008,2,2,Synergistic effects of climate-related variables suggest future physiological impairment in a top oceanic predator,By the end of this century| anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions are expected to decrease the surface ocean pH by as much as 0.3 unit. At the same time| the ocean is expected to warm with an associated expansion of the oxygen minimum layer (OML). Thus| there is a growing demand to understand the response of the marine biota to these global changes. We show that ocean acidification will substantially depress metabolic rates (31%) and activity levels (45%) in the jumbo squid| Dosidicus gigas| a top predator in the Eastern Pacific. This effect is exacerbated by high temperature. Reduced aerobic and locomotory scope in warm| high-CO(2) surface waters will presumably impair predator-prey interactions with cascading consequences for growth| reproduction| and survival. Moreover| as the OML shoals| squids will have to retreat to these shallower| less hospitable| waters at night to feed and repay any oxygen debt that accumulates during their diel vertical migration into the OML. Thus| we demonstrate that| in the absence of adaptation or horizontal migration| the synergism between ocean acidification| global warming| and expanding hypoxia will compress the habitable depth range of the species. These interactions may ultimately define the long-term fate of this commercially and ecologically important predator. 8935,2008,3,2,System Optimization by Augmented Lagrangian Function Method for CO(2) Recovery System,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) included in exhaust gas from heat power plants is the chief cause of global warming. In the present Study| the numerical simulations of CO(2) recovery systems for the exhaust gas were conducted in order to decide optimal values of 5 operation conditions for actual plant. Optimization was conducted by augmented Lagrangian method. For example| for actual plant (flow rate of flue gas: 70000 m(3) (STP)(.) h(-1))| the optimal operation conditions were calculated| in which required consumption energy was minimum within the term that CO(2) recovery rate was 60% and CO(2) concentration of recovery gas was about 90%. And it was confirmed that 3 different conditions given as initial operation condition converged same optimal conditions. In the optimal condition| required consumption energy that is sum of energy consumed by heater and blower was 835 kJ(.) kg (1)| CO(2) recovery rate was 60% and CO(2) concentration of recovery gas was 92%. This required energy was 5% less than that in previous work (Matsukuma et al.| 2007)| and from this fact we think optimization by this method is effective. Furthermore| from the result of previous work (Matsukuma el al.| 2007)| it was suggested that recovery performance was better when the purge process of the system was removed. However we confirmed that the present system including purge process has better performance by the present optimization method.
8668,2008,4,3,Systematic review of the impact of emissions from aviation on current and future climate,Aviation emissions have an impact on the global climate| and this is consequently an active area of research worldwide. By adapting replicable and transparent systematic review methods from the field of evidence-based medicine| we aim to synthesise available data on the effects of aviation emissions on climate. From these data| we aim to calculate lower and upper bounds for estimates of the effect of aviation on climate in an objective manner. For the systematic review an appropriate protocol was developed and applied by two independent reviewers| to identify research that met the inclusion criteria. These included all aviation types| original research studies| climate models with aviation as a specific component| with outcomes for emissions| radiative forcing| global warming potential and/or surface temperature changes. These studies were prioritised and data extracted using a standard process. The 35 studies reviewed here reported radiative forcing| global warming potential and/or temperature changes as outcomes| allowing direct comparisons to be made. Tabulated results and a narrative commentary were provided for overall effects oil climate| and the individual effects of carbon dioxide| water| contrails| cirrus clouds| ozone| nitrogen oxides| methane| soot and sulphur oxides. Lower and upper bounds for these effects| and their relative contributions compared to overall radiative forcing and surface temperature changes| have been described. This review shows that the most recent estimates for the contribution of aviation to global climate are highly dependent on the level of scientific understanding and modelling| and predicted scenarios for social and economic growth. Estimates for the future contribution of aviation to global radiative forcing in 2015 range from 5.31% to 8.04%. For 2050 the estimates have a wider spread| from 2.12% to 17.33%| the latter being for the most extreme technology and growth scenario. These global estimates should be considered within the context of uncertainties in accounting for the direct and indirect effects of different contributions. Variations between lower and upper bounds for estimates of radiative forcing are relatively low for carbon dioxide| around 131% to 800% for cirrus clouds effects| and 1|044% for soot. Advances in climate research| particularly in the area of contrail and cloud effects| has led to some revision of the 1999 IPCC estimates((1))| and demonstrates that the research community is actively working to further understand the underlying science. The approaches assumptions| limitations and future work were discussed in detail. We have demonstrated how the systematic review methodology can be applied to climate science| in a replicable and transparent manner. 9208,2008,2,4,Technical note: Dust storms in China decreased during the last 50 years,There are many deserts and dust storms in northwest China. Some researches showed that the speed of desertification of China increased during the last 50 years. This should provide more source materials to dust storm| while in fact the dust storm frequency decreased. Our analysis considered that this is partly due to the global warming| especially the warm of Tibet Plateau which lead to the decrease of Asia monsoon| and then lead to the dust storm frequency decrease. 1295,2008,4,4,Technical note: Measuring tropospheric OH and HO2 by laser-induced fluorescence at low pressure. A comparison of calibration techniques,The hydroxyl radical (OH) is one of the most important oxidants in the atmosphere| as it is involved in many reactions that affect regional air quality and global climate change. Because of its high reactivity| measurements of OH radical concentrations in the atmosphere are difficult| and often require careful calibrations that rely on the production of a known concentration of OH at atmospheric pressure. The Indiana University OH instrument| based on the Fluorescence Assay by Gas Expansion technique (FAGE)| has been calibrated in the laboratory using two different approaches: the production of OH from the UV-photolysis of water-vapor| and the steady-state production of OH from the reaction of ozone with alkenes. The former technique relies on two different actinometric methods to measure the product of the lamp flux at 184.9 nm and the photolysis time. This quantity derived from N2O actinometry was found to be 1.5 times higher than that derived from O-2 actinometry. The water photolysis and ozone-alkene techniques are shown to agree within their experimental uncertainties (respectively 17% and 44%)| although the sensitivities derived from the ozone-alkene technique were systematically lower by 40% than those derived from the water-vapor UV- photolysis technique using O-2 actinometry. The agreement between the two different methods improves the confidence of the water-vapor photolysis method as an accurate calibration technique for HOx instruments. Because several aspects of the mechanism of the gas phase ozonolysis of alkenes are still uncertain| this technique should be used with caution to calibrate OH instruments. 8544,2008,2,4,Temperature and hydrological variations of the urban environment in the Taipei metropolitan area| Taiwan,In this study| the temperature| precipitation and groundwater level variations and changing patterns with varied time scales are presented for Taipei metropolitan area which consists of the capital city with neighboring counties. Along with the continuous city expansion during the past decades| global warming and heat island effect have generated perceivable negative impacts on environmental and reflect on the climatic and hydrological parameters. In addition to accelerating climate warming| hydrological extremity becomes more evident during the past decades and greatly elevates the risks of drought and floods in the study area. These observations in the Taipei metropolitan area support the common hypothesis that climate variability would increase as climate warms. The air temperature records| in conjunction with hydrological data| provide useful and invaluable information for the ongoing study of subsurface environmental changes resulting from nature and anthropogenic influences in Taipei metropolitan area. The continuing climatic warming and hydrological extremity would create observable impacts on the subsurface environment of Taipei metropolitan area and need to pursue in a fast and efficient pace. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1169,2008,2,4,Temperature and mortality in nine US cities,Background: Extreme temperatures have been associated with increased mortality worldwide. The extent to which air pollutants may confound or modify this association remains unclear. Methods: We examined the association between mean apparent temperature and total mortality in 9 cities across the United States during the warm season (May to September) from 1999 to 2002. We applied case-crossover and time-series analyses| adjusting for day of the week and season in time-series analysis. City-specific estimates were then combined using a meta-analysis. A total of 213|438 deaths for all causes occurred in these cities during the study period. Results: We found that mortality increased with apparent temperature. A 5.5 degrees C (10 degrees F)increase in apparent temperature was associated with an increase in mortality of 1.8% (95% confidence interval = 1.09% to 2.5%) when using case-crossover analysis and with an increase of 2.7% (2.0% to 3.5%) using the time-series analysis. Conclusions: This study provides evidence of increased mortality due to elevated apparent temperature exposure| with no confounding or effect modification due to air pollution. 8794,2008,2,4,Temperature and plant hardiness zone influence distribution of balsam woolly adelgid damage in Atlantic Canada,Management of balsam woolly adelgid (Adelges piceae Ratz.) and of trees damaged by this pest may pose one of the biggest challenges to forest management in Atlantic Canada during the next decade. Feeding by the balsam woolly adelgid is restricted to Abies species in which it causes gouting| branch and upper crown death. Approximately 100 years after its introduction into eastern Canada| symptoms of feeding by the balsam woolly adelgid on balsam fir are found throughout all of Nova Scotia| most of Newfoundland and in southern and eastern New Brunswick. The distribution of symptomatic balsam fir trees coincides with areas where mean January temperatures are below -11 degrees C and where plant hardiness zones are higher than 4a. The presence of balsam fir trees with obvious symptoms of BWA damage throughout much of Atlantic Canada emphasizes the ubiquitous presence of this pest in these provinces and highlights the need to develop hazard rating systems to establish pest management programs to diminish its impact. 9243,2008,2,4,Temperature and vegetation effects on soil organic carbon quality along a forested mean annual temperature gradient in North America,Both climate and plant species are hypothesized to influence soil organic carbon (SOC) quality| but accurate prediction of how SOC process rates respond to global change will require an improved understanding of how SOC quality varies with mean annual temperature (MAT) and forest type. We investigated SOC quality in paired hardwood and pine stands growing in coarse textured soils located along a 22 degrees C gradient in MAT. To do this| we conducted 80-day incubation experiments at 10 and 30 degrees C to quantify SOC decomposition rates| which we used to kinetically define SOC quality. We used these experiments to test the hypotheses that SOC quality decreases with MAT| and that SOC quality is higher under pine than hardwood tree species. We found that both SOC quantity and quality decreased with increasing MAT. During the 30 degrees C incubation| temperature sensitivity (Q(10)) values were strongly and positively related to SOC decomposition rates| indicating that substrate supply can influence temperature responsiveness of SOC decomposition rates. For a limited number of dates| Q(10) was negatively related to MAT. Soil chemical properties could not explain observed patterns in soil quality. Soil pH and cation exchange capacity (CEC) both declined with increasing MAT| and soil C quality was positively related to pH but negatively related to CEC. Clay mineralogy of soils also could not explain patterns of SOC quality as complex (2 : 1)| high CEC clay minerals occurred in cold climate soils while warm climate soils were dominated by simpler (1 : 1)| low CEC clay minerals. While hardwood sites contained more SOC than pine sites| with differences declining with MAT| clay content was also higher in hardwood soils. In contrast| there was no difference in SOC quality between pine and hardwood soils. Overall| these findings indicate that SOC quantity and quality may both decrease in response to global warming| despite long-term changes in soil chemistry and mineralogy that favor decomposition. 8565,2008,2,4,Temperature dependence of stream benthic respiration in an Alpine river network under global warming,1. Global warming has increased the mean surface temperature of the Earth by 0.6 degrees C in the past century| and temperature is probably to increase by an additional 3 degrees C by 2100. Water temperature has also increased| which in turn can affect metabolic rate in rivers. Such an increase in metabolic rate could alter the role of river networks in the global C cycle| because the fraction of allochthonous organic C that is respired may increase. 2. Laboratory-based incubations at increasing water temperature were used to estimate the temperature dependence of benthic respiration in streams. These experiments were performed on stones taken from seven reaches with different thermal conditions (mean temperature ranging 8-19 degrees C) within the pre-alpine Thur River network in Switzerland| June-October 2007. 3. The activation energy of respiration in different reaches along the river network (0.53 +/- 0.12 eV| n = 94) was similar| indicating that respiration was constrained by the activation energy of the respiratory complex (E = 0.62 eV). Water temperature and the thickness of the benthic biofilm influence the temperature dependence of respiration and our results suggest that an increase of 2.5 degrees C will increase river respiration by an average of 20 +/- 1.6%. 8552,2008,2,2,Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios,Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios| based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions| now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO(2) concentrations| radiative forcing| and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 degrees C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably| an average minimum warming of approximate to 1.4 degrees C (with a full range of 0.5-2.8 degrees C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that| although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming| adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming. 1144,2008,2,4,TEMPERATURE TOLERANCE OF GREEN SUNFISH (LEPOMIS CYANELLUS),Mean (+/- SD) critical thermal maxima of green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus) acclimated from 10 to 35 degrees C ranged from 33.5 +/- 0.83 degrees C to 41.3 +/- 0.26 degrees C while the critical thermal minima of individuals acclimated over the same temperatures extended from 0.2 +/- 0.28 degrees C to 11.2 +/- 0.73 degrees C. Temperature tolerance was significantly related to acclimation temperature and the latter accounted for a majority of variation in both lower (97%) and upper (98%) temperature tolerance. A measured upper lethal temperature of 41.3 degrees C and estimated temperature tolerance polygon of 1270 degrees C(2) confirm that the green sunfish is among the most eurythermal native North American fish species. The tolerance polygon was partitioned into low and high temperature acclimation dependent areas of 384 and 205 degrees C(2)| respectively| and when combined| essentially doubled the tolerance area from 618 to 1270 degrees C(2). The low temperature acclimation dependent area is approximately 1.4 times larger than the high temperature dependent area| suggesting that acclimation has a greater effect on tolerance of lower temperatures. The overall temperature tolerance ability of green sunfish may play an important role in this species ability to cope with global climate change. 8747,2008,4,4,Temperature trends at high elevations: Patterns across the globe,Most climate models suggest amplification of global warming in high mountains| but observations are less clear. Using comprehensive| homogeneity-adjusted temperature records from over 1000 high elevation stations across the globe| we examine the causes of changing temperature trends with elevation| assessing the roles of free atmospheric change| topography (exposure and aspect)| and cryospheric feedback. The data show that observed 20th century temperature trends are most rapid near the annual 0 degrees C isotherm due to snow-ice feedback. Mountain summit and freely draining slope sites are dominated by free-air advection and thus have consistent trend magnitudes| with reduced inter-site variance in comparison with incised valley sites where local factors are more important. Thus| while there has been no simplistic elevational increase in warming rates| some generalizations can be made. Water resources and ecosystems near the 0 degrees C isotherm in the extratropics are at increased risk from accelerated warming. The data also suggest that exposed mountain summits| away from the effects of urbanization and topographic sheltering| may provide a relatively unbiased record of the planet's climate. 8795,2008,4,4,Temperature variability and trends over Pune,In the present Study| daily maximum and minimum temperature data of Pune for 25 years (19762000) have been examined to Study characteristics of maximum and minimum temperature during summer and winter seasons. Between March to May the threshold of maximum temperature observed as >= 40 degrees C was considered. While for winter season| a threshold of <= 8 degrees C was used between January and February. Actual number of days with temperature in selected intervals were determined and analysed to study severity of the season. Climatic effects of industrialization in and around Pune on temperature and rainfall have also been explored. Industrialisation at Pune has been found to result in fall in temperature (maximum| minimum and annual)| at this location. 9000,2008,4,4,Temperature variability over the Indian Ocean and its relationship with Indian summer monsoon rainfall,The present study examines the long term trend in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the Arabian Sea| Bay of Bengal and Equatorial South India Ocean in the context of global warming for the period 1901-2002 and for a subset period 1971-2002. An attempt has also been made to identify the relationship between SST variations over three different ocean areas| and All-India and homogeneous region summer monsoon rainfall variability| including the role of El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Annual sea surface temperatures of the Arabian Sea| Bay of Bengal and Equatorial South India Ocean show a significant warming trend of 0.7 degrees C| 0.6 degrees C and 0.5 degrees C per hundred years| respectively| and a relatively accelerated warming of 0.16 degrees C| 0.14 degrees C and 0.14 degrees C per decade during the 1971-2002 period. There is a positive and statistically significant relationship between SSTs over the Arabian Sea from the preceding November to the current February| and Indian monsoon rainfall during the period 1901-2002. The correlation coefficient increases from October and peaks in December| decreasing from February to September. This significant relationship is also found in the recent period 1971-2002| whereas| during 1901-70| the relationship is not significant. On the seasonal scale| Arabian Sea winter SSTs are positively and significantly correlated with Indian monsoon rainfall| while spring SSTs have no significant positive relationship. Nino3 spring SSTs have a negative significant relationship with Indian monsoon rainfall and it is postulated that there is a combined effect of Nino3 and Arabian Sea SSTs on Indian monsoon. If the Nino3 SST effect is removed| the spring SSTs over the Arabian Sea also have a significant relationship with monsoon rainfall. Similarly| the Bay of Bengal and Equatorial South Indian Ocean spring SSTs are significantly and positively correlated with Indian monsoon rainfall after removing the Nino3 effect| and correlation values are more pronounced than for the Arabian Sea. 8830,2008,2,4,Temperature| viral genetics| and the transmission of West Nile virus by Culex pipiens mosquitoes,The distribution and intensity of transmission of vector-borne pathogens can be strongly influenced by the competence of vectors. Vector competence| in turn| can be influenced by temperature and viral genetics. West Nile virus (WNV) was introduced into the United States of America in 1999 and subsequently spread throughout much of the Americas. Previously| we have shown that a novel genotype of WNV| WN02| first detected in 2001| spread across the US and was more efficient than the introduced genotype| NY99| at infecting| disseminating| and being transmitted by Culex mosquitoes. In the current study| we determined the relationship between temperature and time since feeding on the probability of transmitting each genotype of WNV. We found that the advantage of the WN02 genotype increases with the product of time and temperature. Thus| warmer temperatures would have facilitated the invasion of the WN02 genotype. In addition| we found that transmission of WNV accelerated sharply with increasing temperature| T| (best fit by a function of T(4)) showing that traditional degree-day models underestimate the impact of temperature on WNV transmission. This laboratory study suggests that both viral evolution and temperature help shape the distribution and intensity of transmission of WNV| and provides a model for predicting the impact of temperature and global warming on WNV transmission. 1124,2008,2,4,Temperature-based summer habitat partitioning between white-beaked and common dolphins around the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland,The white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris) and short-beaked common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) are two of the most abundant delphinid species in shelf waters around the United Kingdom (UK) and Republic of Ireland (ROI) in the summer season (May-October). As these two species have similar habitat preferences and diets| it might be expected that they would partition their otherwise shared niche to reduce the potential for competition at this time of year. This study used 569 sightings of the two species| collected from shelf waters (< 200 m water depth) in the summer season between 1983 and 1998| to investigate whether there is evidence of widespread niche partitioning based on water temperature in this area. Below 13 degrees C| white-beaked dolphins were dominant with 96% of sightings comprising this species. In contrast| above 14 degrees C| 86% of sightings comprised common dolphins. A classification tree analysis found that of the four eco-geographical variables analysed (water depth| seabed slope| seabed aspect and sea surface temperature)| temperature was the most important variable for separating the occurrence of the two species. These results are consistent with widespread temperature-based niche partitioning between white-beaked and common dolphins in shelf waters around the UK and ROI. As temperature is important in determining the relative distribution of these species| the range of the white-beaked dolphin might be expected to contract in response to increasing sea temperature resulting from global climate change| while that of the common dolphin may expand. 9027,2008,2,4,Temperature-oxygen interactions in Antarctic nudibranch egg masses,The Southern Ocean is one of the coldest| most stable marine environments on Earth and represents a unique environment for investigating metabolic consequences of low temperature. Here we test predictions of a new diffusion-reaction model of O-2 distributions in egg masses| using egg masses of the Antarctic nudibranch mollusk| Tritonia challengeriana. When warmed from -1.5 degrees to + 1.5 degrees C| embryos of T. challengeriana showed large increases in O-2 consumption (Q(10) values of 9.6-30.0). Oxygen electrode measurements in intact masses showed| however| that O2 levels were high throughout and virtually unaffected by temperature. The model suggested that both effects stemmed from very low metabolic densities in egg masses. Detailed morphological measurements of egg masses of T. challengeriana and a temperate congener| T. diomedea| revealed large differences in structure that may be related to O-2 availability. Egg masses of T. challengeriana were approximately twice as thick. However| the most dramatic effects were observed in embryos: embryos of T. challengeriana were >32 times larger (by volume) than embryos of T. diomedea. Antarctic embryos also were contained singly in large egg capsules (similar to 500 mu m diameter). Consequently| Antarctic embryos occurred at much lower densities| with very low metabolic densities. 8613,2008,2,4,Temporal and cross-shelf distribution of ichthyoplankton in the central Cantabrian Sea,Environmental variables have been measured and sampling for ichthyoplankton has been conducted monthly| since April 2001| at three stations| located at the inner (1)| middle (2) and outer (3) shelf of the central Cantabrian Sea. This paper presents the results of the study of the ichthyoplankton collected from July 2001 to June 2004. Fish larvae from 99 species| belonging to 37 families| were identified. Families with higher number of species were Gadidae| Sparidae and Labridae. The larval fish assemblage was dominated by pelagic fish species| with Sardina pilchardus| as the most abundant. There was a pronounced spring peak in larval abundance| dominated by S. pilchardus. A smaller peak| dominated by S. pilchardus and Micromesistius poutassou| was recorded in late winter at Stns 2 and 3. This pattern was evident for the three-year study. Results also indicate that this study was limited to the coastal larval fish assemblage inhabiting the central Cantabrian Sea shelf This assemblage was temporally structured into other three assemblages: winter| late winter-spring and summer-autumn. Temperature was apparently a key factor in larval fish assemblage succession. In a scenario of global warming| this study constitutes a basis to evaluating the ongoing changes in the pelagic coastal ecosystem of the central Cantabrian Sea. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9050,2008,2,4,Temporal and spatial variation in metric asymmetry in skulls of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from East Greenland and Svalbard,Fluctuating asymmetry (FA) as a measure of environmental stress was studied in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) skulls from East Greenland (n = 300| collected 1892-2004) and Svalbard (n = 391| collected 1950-2004). Nine metric traits in skull and lower jaw were measured. FA levels of each trait were compared between sex/age groups (subadults| adult females| adult males)| periods (<= 1960| > 1960)| and localities (East Greenland| Svalbard). The period:5 1960 was chosen to represent a period prior to the appearance of organohalogen pollution in the Arctic. Results indicated that Svalbard bears generally had a higher level of FA than those of East Greenland. Overall| no substantial evidence of a linkage between FA and organohalogens was found. Instead| indications were of subpopulations with declining levels of FA over time| suggesting the existence of positive population level effects powerful enough to overrule the influence of stress caused by global warming| pollution| and overharvesting. 1161,2008,3,4,Temporal change in carbon stocks of cocoa-gliricidia agroforests in Central Sulawesi| Indonesia,In a false-time series| the temporal development of cocoa-gliricidia carbon (C) stocks and soil organic carbon (SOC) were investigated in Napu and Palolo Valleys of Central Sulawesi| Indonesia. As a first step| the Functional Branch Analysis (FBA) method was used to develop allometric equations for the above- and below-ground growth of cocoa and gliricidia. FBA resulted in shoot-root ratios of 2.54 and 2.05 for cocoa and gliricidia| respectively. In Napu and Palolo| the trunk diameter and carbon levels per gliricidia tree were always much greater than that of cocoa. The highest aerial carbon levels were attained at year four in Napu (aerial cocoa-gliricidia=20|745.2 kg C ha(-1) stop) and at year five in Palolo (aerial cocoa-gliricidia=38|857.0 kg C ha(-1) stop). After years four or five| however| the reduced stocking density of gliricidia attributed to a loss of aerial C. During the time spans in question| SOC remained fairly stable though slightly decreasing in Napu and slightly increasing in Palolo. The SOC harbored a vastly greater amount of system C (one-half and one-third of SOC in the 0-15 cm stratum in Napu and Palolo| respectively) relative to tree components. Eight years (Napu) or 15 years (Palolo) after conversion of a rainforest to cocoa-gliricidia agroforestry caused an 88% and 87% reduction of aerial C-stocks in Napu and Palolo| respectively. 1229,2008,3,3,Temporal changes in soil carbon and nitrogen storage in a hybrid poplar chronosequence in northern Alberta,Sequestering C in biomass and soils in hybrid poplar plantations can help mitigate global climate change caused by the rising atmospheric CO| concentration. However| the impact of the establishment of hybrid poplar plantations on C and N storage and dynamics is poorly understood. We studied the distribution and temporal changes of C and N in soil organic matter (SOM) density fractions in 2-| 5-| 11-| and 13-year-old (age as in 2006) hybrid poplar stands that form a chronosequence by sampling the plantations in both 2004 and 2006. Sodium polytungstate (SPT| density = 1.6 g mL(-1)) was used to fractionate the soil into light (LF| density < 1.6 g mL(-1))| occluded light (LFo| density < 1.6 g mL(-1)) and heavy fractions (HF density > 1.6 g mL(-1)). The results showed that C and N concentrations (g kg(-1) of fraction) in the SOM density fractions decreased in the order of LFo>LF>HF| while the C/N ratio was in the order of LF>LFo>HF. The amount of C and N stored in the LF| LFo and HF fractions and bulk soil in the top 10 cm of soil was: 149-504| 70-336| 1380-2876 and 1617-3776 g m(-2)| respectively| for C| and 6-26| 3-20| 149-271 and 152-299 g M| respectively| for N. From 2004 to 2006| C and N storage decreased in the LF and LFo fractions but increased in the HF fraction in the youngest stand. However| stand-age effects were likely muted by high inherent soil variability among the stands. Carbon storage in the light fraction was responsive in the short term to hybrid poplar plantation establishment. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9001,2008,2,4,Temporal variations in ozone concentrations derived from Principal Component Analysis,The application of principal components and cluster analysis to vertical ozone concentration profiles in Tsukuba| Japan| has been explored. Average monthly profiles and profiles of the ratio between standard deviation and the absolute ozone concentration (SDPR) of 1 km data were calculated from the original ozone concentration data. Mean (first) and gradient (second) components explained more than 80% of the variation in both the 0-6 km tropospheric and 11-20km troposphere-stratosphere (interspheric) layers. The principal components analysis not only reproduced the expected inverse relationship between mean ozone concentration and tropopause height (r(2) = 0.41) and that in the tropospheric layer this is larger in spring and summer| but also yielded new information as follows. The larger gradient component score in summer for the interspheric layer points to the seasonal variation of the troposphere-stratosphere exchange. The minimum SDPR was at about 3 km in the tropospheric layer and the maximum was at about 17 km in the interspheric layer. The tropospheric SDPR mean component score was larger in summer| possibly reflecting the mixing of Pacific maritime air masses with urban air masses. The cluster analysis of the monthly ozone profiles for the 1970s and 2000s revealed different patterns for winter and summer. The month of May was part of the winter pattern in the 1970s but part of the summer pattern during the 2000s. This statistically detected change likely reflects the influence of global warming. Thus| these two statistical analysis techniques can be powerful tools for identifying features of ozone concentration profiles. 8825,2008,2,4,Temporal-spatial climate change in the last 35 years in Tibet and its geo-environmental consequences,The climate change in Tibet has induced complex water resource and geo-environmental changes. Tibet is located in a unique geographical zone with the characteristics of middle-low latitude| high altitude and very low average air temperature| and the climate there has been changed both in time and in space under the effect of global warming. Except for two regions without data| the changes of both air temperature and rainfall in the last 35 years in Tibet exhibit evident zonational patterns. In general| air temperature increases higher from east to west| whereas rainfall changes from decrease to increase from south to north. Except for some areas in southern Tibet| the general increase of rainfall accelerated the rate of water cycle| and caused an increase in the gross amount of water resources in Tibet. Moreover| under the impact of climate change| the frequency of occurrence of landslide and debris flow has slightly increased in the high mountain-canyon regions of eastern Tibet. Also| the debris flow due to ice lake outburst has evidently increased in the plateau mountain-lake basin regions of southern Tibet. By contrast| desertification in the western plateau-lake basin regions of northern Tibet has been intensified. 1320,2008,4,4,Terrestrial reference frame implementation in global GPS analysis at TIGA ULR consortium,Monitoring vertical land motion at tide gauges is mandatory if absolute or climate related signals in mean sea level are to be derived from coastal tide gauge records. Different glacial isostatic adjustment models provide very different predictions at the required level of a few tenth of millimetres per year accuracy| while other processes that may affect the vertical stability of tide gauges are still more difficult to predict. An alternative approach is to measure the rates of vertical land motions at the tide gauges. Continuous GPS recordings are presently the most practical and accurate technical solution to address such an issue. The most adequate way to handle the GPS processing seems to be a global scale approach in consistency with the size of the issues: geocentric reference frame realization| long-term stability| global climate change. The laboratories CLDG (Centre Littoral De Geophysique) and LAREG (Laboratoire de Recherches en Geodesie) contribute to the Tide Gauge Benchmark Monitoring (TIGA) IGS pilot project since October 2002 by routinely processing a global set of about 140 GPS sites within the ULR analysis centre consortium. The set comprises about 122 TG-CGPS stations that are analysed using a free network approach. Time series of more than six years are now available. The accuracy of the vertical component is very sensitive to the reference frame definition and realization. We therefore performed some tests in order to quantify the impact of various analysis options on the stability of our realization. We compared the stability of our global solutions with respect to ITRF2000 solution and to its IGS realization called IGS00| while changing the number of reference stations and their geometry. The results indicate that the more reference stations are used the better the alignment to ITRF is performed. A large global distribution of the reference frame stations seems to mitigate individual station problems. The reference frame implementation is achieved within several millimetres accuracy on a weekly basis. The tests indicate that the choice of IGS00 or ITRF2000 datum was not a relevant issue to perform the alignment to ITRF at this level of accuracy. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9196,2008,2,4,Testing for climate warming in Sweden during 1850-1999| using wavelets analysis,This paper describes an alternative approach for testing for the existence of trend among time series. The test method has been constructed using wavelet analysis which has the ability of decomposing a time series into low frequencies (trend) and high-frequency (noise) components. Under the normality assumption| the test is distributed as F. However| using generated empirical critical values| the properties of the test statistic have been investigated under different conditions and different types of wavelet. The Harr wavelet has shown to exhibit the highest power among the other wavelet types. The methodology here has been applied to real temperature data in Sweden for the period 1850-1999. The results indicate a significant increasing trend which agrees with the 'global warming' hypothesis during the last 100 years. 8590,2008,4,4,Testing for tree-ring divergence in the European Alps,Evidence for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature has been reported from multiple forests along the high northern latitudes. This alleged circumpolar phenomenon described the apparent inability of temperature-sensitive tree-ring width and density chronologies to parallel increasing instrumental temperature measurements since the mid-20th century. In addition to such low-frequency trend offset| the inability of formerly temperature-sensitive tree growth to reflect high-frequency temperature signals in a warming world is indicated at some boreal sites| mainly in Alaska| the Yukon and Siberia. Here| we refer to both of these findings as the 'divergence problem' (DP)| with their causes and scale being debated. If DP is widespread and the result of climatic forcing| the overall reliability of tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions should be questioned. Testing for DP benefits from well-replicated tree-ring and instrumental data spanning from the 19th to the 21st century. Here| we present a network of 124 larch and spruce sites across the European Alpine arc. Tree-ring width chronologies from 40 larch and 24 spruce sites were selected based on their correlation with early (1864-1933) instrumental temperatures to assess their ability of tracking recent (1934-2003) temperature variations. After the tree-ring series of both species were detrended in a manner that allows low-frequency variations to be preserved and scaled against summer temperatures| no unusual late 20th century DP is found. Independent tree-ring width and density evidence for unprecedented late 20th century temperatures with respect to the past millennium further reinforces our results. 8971,2008,4,4,Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover,A decrease in the globally averaged low level cloud cover| deduced from the ISCCP infrared data| as the cosmic ray intensity decreased during the solar cycle 22 was observed by two groups. The groups went on to hypothesize that the decrease in ionization due to cosmic rays causes the decrease in cloud cover| thereby explaining a large part of the currently observed global warming. We have examined this hypothesis to look for evidence to corroborate it. None has been found and so our conclusions are to doubt it. From the absence of corroborative evidence| we estimate that less than 23%| at the 95% confidence level| of the 11 year cycle change in the globally averaged cloud cover observed in solar cycle 22 is due to the change in the rate of ionization from the solar modulation of cosmic rays. 8804,2008,5,4,The (40)Ar/(39)Ar ages of the sill complex of the Karoo large igneous province: Implications for the Pliensbachian-Toarcian climate change,Reliable geochronological results gathered so far (n = 76) have considerably constrained the timing of the emplacement of the Karoo large igneous province (LIP). Yet strikingly missing from this dating effort is the huge southern sill complex cropping out in the > 0.6 x 10(6) km(2) Main Karoo sedimentary basin. We present 16 new (40)Ar/(39)Ar analyses carried out on fresh plagioclase and biotite separates from 15 sill samples collected along a N-S trend in the eastern part of the basin. The results show a large range of plateau and miniplateau ages (176.2 +/- 1.3 to 183.8 +/- 2.4 Ma)| with most dates suggesting a similar to 3 Ma (181 - 184 Ma) duration for the main sill events. The available age database allows correlation of the Karoo LIP emplacement with the Pliensbachian-Toarcian second-order biotic extinction| the global warming| and the Toarcian anoxic event (provided that adequate calibration between the (40)K and (238)U decay constant is made). The mass extinction and the isotopic excursions recorded at the base of the Toarcian appear to be synchronous with both the increase of magma emission of the Karoo LIP and the emplacement of the sills. The CO(2) and SO(2) derived from both volcanic emissions as well as carbon-rich sedimentary layers intruded by sills might be the main culprits of the Pliensbachian-Toarcian climate perturbations. We propose that the relatively low eruption rate of the Karoo LIP is one of the main reasons explaining why its impact on the biosphere is relatively low contrary to| e. g.| the CAMP (Triassic-Jurassic) and Siberia (Permo-Triassic) LIPs. 1107,2008,2,4,The acute temperature tolerance of green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) and the effect of environmental salinity,We investigated the effect of environmental salinity on the upper thermal tolerance of green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris)| a threatened species whose natural habitat is vulnerable to temperature and salinity variation as a result of global climate change. Freshwater (FW)-reared sturgeon were gradually acclimated to salinities representing FW| estuary water (EST)| or San Francisco Bay water (BAY) at 18 degrees C| and their critical thermal maximum (CTMax) was measured by increasing temperature 0.3 degrees C/min until branchial ventilation ceased. CTMax was 34.2 +/- 0.09 C in EST-acclimated fish| with FW- and BAY-acclimated fish CTMax at 33.7 +/- 0.08 and 33.7 +/- 0.1 C| respectively. Despite the higher CTMax in EST-acclimated fish| FW-acclimated sturgeon ventilation rate reached a peak that was 2 C higher than EST- and BAY-acclimated groups and had a greater range of temperatures within which they exhibited normal ventilatory function as assessed by Q(10) calculation. The osmoreulatory consequences of exposure to near-lethal temperatures were assessed by measuring plasma osmolality and hematocrit| as well as white muscle| brain| and heart tissue water contents. Hematocrit was increased following CTMax exposures most likely owing to the elevated metabolic demands of temperature increase| and plasma osmolality was significantly increased in EST- and BAY-acclimated fish| which was likely the result of a greater osmotic gradient across the gill as metabolism increased. To our knowledge| this represents the first evidence for an effect of salinity on the upper thermal tolerance Of Sturgeon| as well as them first investigation of the osmoregulatory consequences of exposure to near-lethal temperatures. J. Exp. Zool. 309A:477-483| 2008. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss| Inc. 9140,2008,4,4,The atmospheric chemistry of sulphuryl fluoride| SO2F2,The atmospheric chemistry of sulphuryl fluoride| SO2F2| was investigated in a series of laboratory studies. A competitive rate method| using pulsed laser photolysis (PLP) to generate O(D-1) coupled to detection of OH by laser induced fluorescence (LIF)| was used to determine the overall rate coefficient for the reaction O(D-1)+ SO2F2 -> products (R1) of k(1) (220-300 K) = (1.3 +/- 0.2) x 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). Monitoring the O(P-3) product (R1a) enabled the contribution (alpha) of the physical quenching process (in which SO2F2 is not consumed) to be determined as alpha (225-296 K)=(0.55 +/- 0.04). Separate| relative rate measurements at 298K provided a rate coefficient for reactive loss of O(D-1)| k(1b)| of (5.8 +/- 0.8) x 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) in good agreement with the value calculated from (1-alpha) x k(1)=(5.9 +/- 1.0) x 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). Upper limits for the rate coefficients for reaction of SO2F2 with OH (R2| using PLP-LIF)| and with O-3 (R3| static reactor) were determined as k(2) (294 K) < 1 x 10(-15) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and k(3) (294 K)< 1 x 10(-23) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). In experiments using the wetted-wall flow tube technique| no loss of SO2F2 onto aqueous surfaces was observed| allowing an upper limit for the uptake coefficient of gamma(pH 2-12)< 1 x 10(-7) to be determined. These results indicate that SO2F2 has no significant loss processes in the troposphere| and a very long stratospheric lifetime. Integrated band intensities for SO2F2 infrared absorption features between 6 and 19 mu m were obtained| and indicate a significant global warming potential for this molecule. In the course of this work| ambient temperature rate coefficients for the reactions O(D-1) with several important atmospheric species were determined. The results (in units of 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1))| k((OD)-D-1+ N-2)=(0.33 +/- 0.06); k((OD)-D-1+ N2O)=(1.47 +/- 0.2) and k((OD)-D-1+H2O)=(1.94 +/- 0.5) were in good agreement with other recent determinations. 9116,2008,2,4,The biogeochemical consequences of changing ventilation in the Japan/East Sea,Transient tracer observations in the Japan/East Sea are used in combination with a minimum complexity water mass model to successfully constrain the timing| nature and magnitude of recent changes in its ventilation. The data and model indicate that there has been a nearly 10-fold decrease in deep water formation rates since during the early 1960s| marked by a transition from sea ice/brine-rejection based deep water mass formation to a shallower open ocean convective renewal. The ventilation rates thus computed allow the calculation of the regional scale flux of phosphate from the abyss to the euphotic zone| and hence basin-scale new production. In addition| water column remineralization rates for phosphate and oxygen utilization rates show expected and consistent patterns as a function of depth. The reduction in abyssal ventilation of the Japan/East Sea (JES) during the latter half of the 20th century led to a 2-fold decrease in basin-scale new production. This decrease has significant implications for the strength and resilience of the marine food web in a strategically important marginal sea. The change appears consistent with trends in zooplankton biomass estimates in the western JES| and possibly with changes in the character of fish-catches. Recent observations made by others indicate a significant resurgence of brine-rejection related deep water formation during the winter of 2001| but it remains to be seen whether this will be sustained in the face of global warming trends. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1174,2008,2,4,The book reopened on infectious diseases,Emerging infectious diseases represent a major challenge to human health worldwide. The risk of evolving new infectious pathogens has been intensifying due to urbanization. demographic changes. air travel| inappropriate use of antibiotics. and climate change. These pathogens call affect humans from urban centers to the remotest corners of the globe. Far from being a scourge C of the past| infectious diseases are relevant for the world today. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved. 9064,2008,3,3,The carbon-sequestration potential of municipal wastewater treatment,The lack of proper wastewater treatment results in production Of CO2 and CH4 without the opportunity for carbon sequestration and energy recovery| with deleterious effects for global warming. Without extending wastewater treatment to all urban areas worldwide| CO2 and CH4 emissions associated with wastewater discharges could reach the equivalent of 1.91 X 10(5) t(CO2) d(-1) in 2025| with even more dramatic impact in the short-term. The carbon sequestration benefits of wastewater treatment have enormous potential| which adds an energy conservation incentive to upgrading existing facilities to complete wastewater treatment. The potential greenhouse gases discharges which can be converted to a net equivalent CO2 credit can be as large as 1.21 x 10(4) t(CO2) d(-1) by 2025. Biomass sequestration and biogas conversion energy recovery are the two main strategies for carbon sequestration and emission offset| respectively. The greatest potential for improvement is outside Europe and North America| which have largely completed treatment plant construction. Europe and North America can partially offset their CO2 emissions and receive benefits through the carbon emission trading system| as established by the Kyoto protocol| by extending existing technologies or subsidizing wastewater treatment plant construction in urban areas lacking treatment. This strategy can help mitigate global warming| in addition to providing a sustainable solution for extending the health| environmental| and humanitarian benefits of proper sanitation. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8635,2008,2,3,The climate influence of anthropogenic land-use changes on near-surface wind energy potential in China,There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on wind energy in China. The climate change of near-surface wind energy potential in China under the background of global warming and its association with anthropogenic land-use changes are investigated by calculating the difference in surface wind speeds between the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the observations since the re-analysis dataset contains the influence of large-scale climate changes due to greenhouse gases| it is less sensitive to regional surface processes associated with land types. The surface wind data in this study consist of long-term observations from 604 Chinese Roution Meteorological Stations and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1960-1999. The results suggest that the observed mean wind speeds significantly weakened and the near-surface wind power trended downward due to urbanization and other land-use changes in the last 40 years. The mean wind energy weakened by -3.84 W.m(-2) per decade due to the influence of anthropogenic land-use change| which is close to the observed climate change (-4.51 W.m(-2)/10 a). 9048,2008,4,4,The coastal fishes of Madeira Island - new records and an annotated check-list,A check-list of the coastal fishes of Madeira Island is presented. The species Rhincodon typus| Megalops atlanticus| Apterichtus caecus| Apterichtus sp.| Chelidonichthys lucernus| Caranx crysos| Lutjanus goreensis| Crystallogobius linearis| and Canthidermis sufflamen are recorded for the first time from Madeira waters. We have recognized 13 previous records as identification errors or registration errors and indicate 14 other records as doubtful. Including the nine new records| we list 226 species from the coastal waters of Madeira Island. 9218,2008,4,4,The design of a navigation| guidance| and control system for an unmanned surface vehicle for environmental monitoring,Maintaining the ecosystem is one of the main concerns in this modern age. With the fear of ever-increasing global warming| the UK is one of the key players to participate actively in taking measures to slow down at least its phenomenal rate. As an ingredient to this process| the Springer vehicle has been designed and is being developed for environmental monitoring and pollutant tracking. This paper highlights the Springer hardware and software architecture including various navigational sensors| a speed controller| and an environmental monitoring unit. In addition| details regarding the modelling of the vessel are outlined which are based mainly on recent trials data. The formulation of a fault tolerant multi-sensor data fusion technique is also presented. Moreover| control strategy based on a linear quadratic Gaussian controller is developed and simulated on the Springer model. 9085,2008,2,2,The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold,Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions may trigger threshold responses of the climate system. One relevant example of such a potential threshold response is a shutdown of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Numerous studies have analyzed the problem of early MOC change detection (i.e.| detection before the forcing has committed the system to a threshold response). Here we analyze the early MOC prediction problem. To this end| we virtually deploy an MOC observation system into a simple model that mimics potential future MOC responses and analyze the timing of confident detection and prediction. Our analysis suggests that a confident prediction of a potential threshold response can require century time scales| considerably longer that the time required for confident detection. The signal enabling early prediction of an approaching MOC threshold in our model study is associated with the rate at which the MOC intensity decreases for a given forcing. A faster MOC weakening implies a higher MOC sensitivity to forcing. An MOC sensitivity exceeding a critical level results in a threshold response. Determining whether an observed MOC trend in our model differs in a statistically significant way from an unforced scenario (the detection problem) imposes lower requirements on an observation system than the determination whether the MOC will shut down in the future (the prediction problem). As a result| the virtual observation systems designed in our model for early detection of MOC changes might well fail at the task of early and confident prediction. Transferring this conclusion to the real world requires a considerably refined MOC model| as well as a more complete consideration of relevant observational constraints. 1041,2008,2,4,The earliest stages of ecosystem succession in high-elevation (5000 metres above sea level)| recently deglaciated soils,Global climate change has accelerated the pace of glacial retreat in high-latitude and high-elevation environments| exposing lands that remain devoid of vegetation for many years. The exposure of 'new' soil is particularly apparent at high elevations (5000 metres above sea level) in the Peruvian Andes| where extreme environmental conditions hinder plant colonization. Nonetheless| these seemingly barren soils contain a diverse microbial community; yet the biogeochemical role of micro-organisms at these extreme elevations remains unknown. Using biogeochemical and molecular techniques| we investigated the biological community structure and ecosystem functioning of the pre-plant stages of primary succession in soils along a high-Andean chronosequence. We found that recently glaciated soils were colonized by a diverse community of cyanobacteria during the first 4-5 years following glacial retreat. This significant increase in cyanobacterial diversity corresponded with equally dramatic increases in soil stability| heterotrophic microbial biomass| soil enzyme activity and the presence and abundance of photosynthetic and photoprotective pigments. Furthermore| we found that soil nitrogen-fixation rates increased almost two orders of magnitude during the first 4-5 years of succession| many years before the establishment of mosses| lichens or vascular plants. Carbon analyses (pyrolysis-gas chromatography/ mass spectroscopy) of soil organic matter suggested that soil carbon along the chronosequence was of microbial origin. This indicates that inputs of nutrients and organic matter during early ecosystem development at these sites are dominated by microbial carbon and nitrogen fixation. Overall| our results indicate that photosynthetic and nitrogen-fixing bacteria play important roles in acquiring nutrients and facilitating ecological succession in soils near some of the highest elevation receding glaciers on the Earth. 8433,2008,2,4,The effect of heat waves on hospital admissions for renal disease in a temperate city of Australia,Background A rarely investigated consequence of heat exposure is renal dysfunction resulting from dehydration and hyperthermia. Our study aims to quantify the relationship between exposure to extreme high temperatures and renal morbidity in South Australia. Methods Poisson regression accounting for over dispersion| seasonality and long-term trend was used to estimate the effect of heat waves on hospital admissions for renal disease| acute renal failure and renal dialysis over a 12-year period. Selected comorbidities were investigated as possible contributing risk factors. Results Admissions for renal disease and acute renal failure were increased during heat waves compared with non-heat wave periods with an incidence rate ratio of 1.100 [95 confidence intervals (CI) 1.0031.206] and 1.255 (95 CI 1.0371.519)| respectively. Hospitalizations for dialysis showed no corresponding increase. Comorbid diabetes did not increase the risk of renal admission| however effects of heat and light and exposure to excessive natural heat (collectively termed effects of heat) were identified as risk factors. Conclusion Our findings suggest that as heat waves become more frequent| the burden of renal morbidity may increase in susceptible individuals as an indirect consequence of global warming. 9090,2008,2,4,The effect of prolonged flooding on the bark of mangrove trees,Growth and physiological response of woody plants to flooding have been analyzed in detail; however| relatively few studies have been oriented towards the effects of water immersion on cambial activity and wood and bark anatomy of trees that are growing in prolonged flooding conditions. These studies are important to understand the possible effects of predicted sea level rising in mangroves as a consequence of global warming. We studied five species growing in a mangrove forest| sampling three to six trees of each species| in sites that have the longest flooding period. Differences in bark appearance and phloem structure between the submerged stem portion and the portion of the stem above the water surface exist in all species. Although aerenchyma formation and stem hypertrophy are the most common events related to flooding| each type of tissue responded differently. Annona glabra L.| Laguncularia racemosa (L.) Gaertn f. and Hibiscus tiliaceus L. developed rythidome. Avicennia germinans (L.) Stearn developed rythidome only in the submerged stem portion. Phyllanthus elsiae Urb.| developed one periderm in both stem portions. Species that developed rythidome also developed aerenchyma between periderms and in the phellem. H. tiliaceus and P. elsiae| showed the highest values for anatomical phloem and periderm characters below water surface| while an inverse tendency was observed in A. glabra and L. racemosa| suggesting that prolonged flooding modifies vascular cambium and phellogen differently. Results indicate that sea level rising would affect distribution of the species according to their specific flooding tolerance. 8921,2008,2,4,The effect of temperature on growth and competition between Sphagnum species,Peat bogs play a large role in the global sequestration of C| and are often dominated by different Sphagnum species. Therefore| it is crucial to understand how Sphagnum vegetation in peat bogs will respond to global warming. We performed a greenhouse experiment to study the effect of four temperature treatments (11.2| 14.7| 18.0 and 21.4 degrees C) on the growth of four Sphagnum species: S. fuscum and S. balticum from a site in northern Sweden and S. magellanicum and S. cuspidatum from a site in southern Sweden. In addition| three combinations of these species were made to study the effect of temperature on competition. We found that all species increased their height increment and biomass production with an increase in temperature| while bulk densities were lower at higher temperatures. The hollow species S. cuspidatum was the least responsive species| whereas the hummock species S. fuscum increased biomass production 13-fold from the lowest to the highest temperature treatment in monocultures. Nutrient concentrations were higher at higher temperatures| especially N concentrations of S. fuscum and S. balticum increased compared to field values. Competition between S. cuspidatum and S. magellanicum was not influenced by temperature. The mixtures of S. balticum with S. fuscum and S. balticum with S. magellanicum showed that S. balticum was the stronger competitor| but it lost competitive advantage in the highest temperature treatment. These findings suggest that species abundances will shift in response to global warming| particularly at northern sites where hollow species will lose competitive strength relative to hummock species and southern species. 8981,2008,2,4,The effect of thermal history on the susceptibility of reef-building corals to thermal stress,The mutualistic relationship between corals and their unicellular dinoflagellate symbionts (Symbiodinium sp.) is a fundamental component within the ecology of coral reefs. Thermal stress causes the breakdown of the relationship between corals and their symbionts (bleaching). As with other organisms| this symbiosis may acclimate to changes in the environment| thereby potentially modifying the environmental threshold at which they bleach. While a few studies have examined the acclimation capacity of reef-building corals| our understanding of the underlying mechanism is still in its infancy. The present study focused on the role of recent thermal history in influencing the response of both corals and symbionts to thermal stress| using the reef-building coral Acropora aspera. The symbionts of corals that were exposed to 31 degrees C for 48 h (pre-stress treatment) 1 or 2 weeks prior to a 6-day simulated bleaching event (when corals were exposed to 34 degrees C) were found to have more effective photoprotective mechanisms. These mechanisms included changes in non-photochemical quenching and xanthophyll cycling. These differences in photoprotection were correlated with decreased loss of symbionts| with those corals that were not prestressed performing significantly worse| losing over 40% of their symbionts and having a greater reduction in photosynthetic efficiency. These results are important in that they show that thermal history| in addition to light history| can influence the response of reef-building corals to thermal stress and therefore have implications for the modeling of bleaching events. However| whether acclimation is capable of modifying the thermal threshold of corals sufficiently to cope as sea temperatures increase in response to global warming has not been fully explored. Clearly increases in sea temperatures that extend beyond 1-2 degrees C will exhaust the extent to which acclimation can modify the thermal threshold of corals. 1132,2008,2,4,The effects of changes in the climate on the energy demands of buildings,It is generally accepted that climate changes will have a major effect on our lives. However| buildings will also be faced with climate changes| and these changes will have an impact on indoor comfort| energy demands and the efficiency of building services| especially on those supporting free cooling and free heating. In order to predict the expected changes in a building's thermal response during its lifetime| it is necessary to look at the climate changes predicted for the future. In our study| the climate changes were considered by using simplified mathematical models combined with available test reference years to establish 'corrected test reference years'. A transient simulation tool| TRNSYS| was used to simulate the indoor climate and the useful energy demand for the heating and cooling of different buildings with different free-cooling techniques. In order to predict the expected changes in a building's thermal response| the meterological parameters for the moderate| continental climate region of Slovenia were taken into account. The study shows that during a building's lifetime| significant changes in useful energy demands can be expected-a decrease in the useful energy demand for heating of between 23 and 40% and an up-to-38-times increase in the useful energy needed for mechanical cooling. In buildings without mechanical cooling| the efficiency of the different free-cooling techniques should be increased by between 100 and 200% to ensure the same living comfort. The results presented in the study confirm that it is necessary to evaluate the consequences of global climate changes from the point to view of energy use in buildings| their contruction and the buildings' service installations. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 8880,2008,3,3,The effects of logging on soil greenhouse gas (CO2|CH4| N2O) flux in a tropical rain forest| Peninsular Malaysia,To evaluate the effects of logging on soil greenhouse gas flux in a tropical rain forest| we measured CO2| CH4| and N2O fluxes at logged and unlogged sites in Peninsular Malaysia N = 7-27 at each site). Although soil temperature at the logged sites was higher than at unlogged sites| Soil CO2 flux did not differ between sites. The CH4 consumption at the logged sites tended to be less than that at unlogged sites| and some soils at the logged sites emitted CH4. These results suggest that logging can decrease CH4 consumption or even convert CH4 sinks into sources. The increase in soil bulk density after logging might lowered the effective diffusivity of CH4 and O-2 availability in soils| which might limit the CH4 consumption at the logged sites. N2O fluxes were increased significantly for at least 1 year after logging because of an increase in soil nitrogen availability. Logging decreased the CH4 absorption rate and increased the N2O emission rate of the soil. Based on these findings| we conclude that logging in tropical rain forests increases the emission of CH4 and N2O for at least 1 year after logging| thus potentially contributing to global warming. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1176,2008,2,4,The effects of weather and air pollution on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in Santiago| Chile| during the winters of 1988-1996,This study quantifies the effects of stressful weather and elevated air pollution levels on cause-specific mortality in Santiago| Chile| during the austral winters from 1988 to 1996. A temporal synoptic index (TSI) is used to form weather classes and air pollution classes. Prior applications of the TSI have formed classes solely on the basis of weather and may have systematically underestimated the impact of air pollution levels on daily mortality. In Santiago| the attribution of increased mortality risk was found to be largely dependent on the type of class formed (weather or pollution). High-mortality weather classes were associated with cold| dry and high-pressure conditions| while high-mortality pollution classes were associated with elevated NO(2) and PM(10-2.5) concentrations. Cardiovascular disease mortality was more sensitive to weather conditions| and respiratory mortality was more sensitive to pollution levels. Respiratory mortality was most sensitive to stressful conditions at longer lag times (3-6 days)| while cardiovascular mortality was most sensitive at shorter lag times (0-2 days). By understanding the relative magnitudes of health risks associated with stressful weather and air pollution conditions we can improve existing air pollution/weather watch systems and better anticipate future| risks associated with global climate change. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society. 8749,2008,3,4,The environmental impact of recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST) use in dairy production,The environmental impact of using recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST) in dairy production was examined on an individual cow| industry-scale adoption| and overall production system basis. An average 2006 U.S. milk yield of 28.9 kg per day was used| with a daily response to rbST supplementation of 4.5 kg per cow. Rations were formulated and both resource inputs (feedstuffs| fertilizers| and fuels) and waste outputs (nutrient excretion and greenhouse gas emissions) calculated. The wider environmental impact of production systems was assessed via acidification (AP)| eutrophication (EP)| and global warming (GWP) potentials. From a producer perspective| rbST supplementation improved individual cow production| with reductions in nutrient input and waste output per unit of milk produced. From an industry perspective| supplementing one million cows with rbST reduced feedstuff and water use| cropland area| N and P excretion| greenhouse gas emissions| and fossil fuel use compared with an equivalent milk production from unsupplemented cows. Meeting future U.S. milk requirements from cows supplemented with rbST conferred the lowest AP| EP| and GWP| with intermediate values for conventional management and the highest environmental impact resulting from organic production. Overall| rbST appears to represent a valuable management tool for use in dairy production to improve productive efficiency and to have less negative effects on the environment than conventional dairying. 8725,2008,2,3,The evolution of the Pinus sylvestris L. area in the Iberian Peninsula from the last glacial maximum to 2100 under climate change,We model the past and future distribution of Pinus sylvestris in the Iberian Peninsula using the random forest algorithm| a machine learning technique that implements an automatic combination of tree predictors. In order to model the past| we chose two of the most climatically significant events recognized affecting the species distribution: the last glacial maximum (LGM| 21 000 cal. BP)| and the mid Holocene (6000 cal. BP). In order to model the distributions| we based the future scenarios of climate change upon the four storylines projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (A1| A2| B1 and B2). The results obtained for the past show a contraction in the distribution area during the LGM and a subsequent expansion| coinciding with an improvement in climate in the mid Holocene. The presence of isolated populations of Pinus sylvestris at low altitudes could support the existence of refuges for Northern European taxa. The results obtained for the future| even in the least aggressive scenario| show a rapid decrease in this species' distribution and a vertical migration as a response to climate change. Pinus sylvestris populations would be restricted in the future to the higher altitudes of the mountains in the north of the Iberian Peninsula (mainly the Pyrenees)| and the species would disappear from the central and southern mountain ranges. These results identify a risk to high-mountain forest species in the Iberian Peninsula from the effects of global warming. 9063,2008,2,4,The feedback between climate and weathering,Long-term climate moderation is commonly attributed to chemical weathering; the greater the temperature and precipitation the faster the weathering rate. To test this widely-held hypothesis| we performed a field study and determined the weathering rates of eight nearly pristine north-east Iceland river catchments with varying glacial cover over 44 y. Statistically significant linear positive correlations were found between mean annual temperature and chemical weathering in all eight catchments and between mean annual temperature and mechanical weathering and runoff in seven of the eight catchments. The runoff| mechanical weathering flux| and chemical weathering fluxes in these catchments are found to increase from 6 to 16%| 8 to 30%| and 4 to 14%| respectively| depending on the catchment for each degree of temperature increase. Positive correlations were found between time and mechanical and chemical weathering for all catchments. In summary| these results demonstrate a significant feedback between climate and Earth surface weathering| and suggest that this weathering rate is currently increasing with time due to global warming. 8929,2008,3,3,The future of global warming: will it be emissions control or environmental damages?,This paper explores the role of risk perceptions in influencing public policy related to global warming. It solves for the optimal paths for emissions| abatement and investment in pollution-eliminating research by incorporating perceived risks into public decision making. It also compares the impact of differential risk perceptions on international collaboration on carbon abatement. Key findings are that the perception of risks related to environmental damages and technological breakthroughs plays an important role in determining the level of mitigation efforts. A high level of perceived risk of environmental damages discourages investment in pollution-eliminating research as there are few benefits from eliminating pollution after damages are realized. Other options that allow for sequestering carbon from the atmosphere may still remain viable. Another key finding is that when it comes to effort sharing between nations| differential mitigation efforts are primarily caused due to the differences in abatement technology| benefits from emissions and research capabilities. However| such differences could be accentuated or mitigated depending upon the differences in risk perception of developed and developing countries. 9135,2008,3,3,The greenhouse gas balance of the Province of Siena,There is a profound debate over how to assign greenhouse gas (GHG) responsibilities; therefore| we have decided to follow IPCC guidelines| as they offer the only standardized method. We have identified each type of greenhouse emission and its level of absorption. We have studied the province and its districts and municipalities. We have determined that the energy sector is that with the highest level of emissions| even if the per capita emissions of the Province of Siena are very low. This is caused by a very low level of industrialization and the presence of a local geothermal production of energy. In order to highlight this aspect| we have considered scenarios both with and without geothermal production. Our research was then focused on single districts (groups of homogenous municipalities) and municipalities| where we found great differences among the greenhouse emissions of the areas. We have constructed a map of the greenhouse emissions of the whole province. It has been interesting to note that there are 14 municipalities with net negative emissions| seven with low positive emissions| 12 with medium positive emissions and three with elevated positive emissions. These latter correspond to the main city and to two of the most industrialized municipalities. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8608,2008,3,3,The greenhouse gas emissions and fossil energy requirement of bioplastics from cradle to gate of a biomass refinery,Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) are promising eco-friendly bioplastics that can be produced from cellulosic ethanol biorefineries as value-added coproducts. A cradle-to-factory-gate life cycle assessment is performed with two important categories: the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fossil energy requirement per kg of bioplastics produced. The analysis indicates that PHA bioplastics contribute clearly to the goal of mitigating GHG emissions with only 0.49 kg CO2-e being emitted from production of 1 kg of resin. Compared with 2-3 kg CO2-e of petrochemical counterparts| it is about 80% reduction of the global warming potential. The fossil energy requirement per kg of bioplastics is 44 MJ| lower than those of petrochemical counterparts (78-88 MJ/kg resin). About 62% of fossil energy is used for processing utilities and wastewater treatment| and the rest is required for raw materials in different life cycle stages. 9240,2008,3,4,The holistic impact of integrated solid waste management on greenhouse gas emissions in Phuket,Continually increasing amounts of municipal solid waste (MSW) and the limited capacity of the existing waste management system in Phuket have led to the consideration of integrated waste management system (IWMS). Life cycle assessment (LCA) was employed to compare the greenhouse gas emissions expressed as global warming potential (GWP) of the existing waste management system (the base scenario) and other three IWMSs for Phuket MSW. Besides incineration and landfilling| the proposed scenarios include 30% source separation for recycling (scenario 2)| anaerobic digestion (scenario 3) and both (scenario 4). The functional unit is set as 1 t of Phuket MSW treated. Results from the impact assessment of the base scenario shows that the net GWP is 1006 kg CO2 equivalent. Landfilling contributes to the highest potentials of this impact. The results from a holistic comparison show that scenario 4 is the best option among all the scenarios| contributing GWP of 415 kg CO2 eq.| whereas the base scenario is the worst. The emission of greenhouse gas from landfilling is reduced by the introduction of landfill gas recovery and utilization for electricity production. By assumption| 50% recovery of landfill gas leads to the GWP reduction around 58% by total GWP of landfilling and 36% by the net GWP of the whole system in the base scenario. The study suggests that a policy that promotes source separation should be pursued| preferably combined with the application of landfill gas recovery for electricity. Policy promoting recycling is favorable over anaerobic digestion in the situation that both treatment systems could not be established at the same time. The major conclusion from the study is that results from the LCA can support Phuket Municipality for decision-making with respect to planning and optimizing IWMS. It can benefit other municipalities or policy makers to apply in their waste management projects. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8594,2008,2,4,The impact of climate change on long-term population trends of birds in a central European country,Numerous studies have shown that climate changes associated with increasing global temperature affect bird species. For instance| long-distance migrants are not able to respond adequately to rapid advances in spring phenology| and thus their populations decline due to lower breeding performance. Moreover| many species in the Northern Hemisphere have shifted their northern breeding range boundaries further north. However| studies focusing on bird populations at the scale of individual countries| which are responsible for creating environmental policies| are rather scarce. We hypothesized that bird species with different European latitudinal breeding distributions would have different long-term population trends in the Czech Republic| a small central European country| as a result of range dynamics caused by increasing spring temperature. In accordance with this prediction| the results of an analysis based on large-scale monitoring data (from 1982 to 2006) showed that species with more northern latitudinal distributions had more negative population trends in the Czech Republic. However| the strength of the relationship depended on the approach used for characterization of the species latitudinal distributions. When a phylogenetic regression was applied| the only significant explanatory variable was the latitudinal distribution expressed in categories defined by species range areas in different latitudinal bands. A more detailed analysis showed that southern and northern species groups have opposite population trajectories: the former increased and the latter declined throughout the study period. The effect of climate change remained significant when habitat association and the migratory strategy of each species were taken into account. However| it is difficult to determine whether climate change or habitat change is the more important driver of long-term trends in bird populations as the effects of both factors are dependent on interspecific variability in levels of species specialization. 1112,2008,2,4,The impact of temperature regimes on development| dormancy breaking and germination of dwarf shrub seeds from arctic| alpine and boreal sites,It has been suggested that the infrequent sexual reproduction of arctic dwarf shrubs might be related to the harsh environmental conditions in which they live. If this is the case| then increases in temperature resulting from global climate change might drastically affect regeneration of arctic species. We examined whether recruitment of Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum and Vaccinium uliginosum (hereafter E. nigrum and V. uliginosum) was affected by temperature during three reproductive stages: seed development| dormancy breakage and germination. Seeds were collected from an arctic| an alpine (only E. nigrum) and a boreal site with different climates; stored at different winter temperatures and incubated for germination at different temperatures. Seeds of V. uliginosum developed in the boreal region had a higher percentage germination than did seeds developed in the Arctic. In contrast| seeds of E. nigrum from the arctic site had a higher or similar percentage germination than did seeds from the alpine and boreal sites. Increased winter temperatures had no significant effect on resulting germination percentage of E. nigrum. However| V. uliginosum seeds from the arctic site suffered increased fungal attack (and thus decreased germination) when they were stratified under high winter temperatures. Seeds of both species increased germination with increased incubation temperatures. Our results suggest that both species would increase their germination in response to warmer summers. Longer summers might also favour the slow-germinating E. nigrum. However| increased winter temperatures might increase mortality due to fungal attack in V. uliginosum ecotypes that are not adapted to mild winters. 8586,2008,2,3,The impacts of global warming on farmers in Brazil and India,How big a threat is global warming to climate-sensitive and economically important sectors such as agriculture in developing countries? How well will farmers be able to adapt to the threats of global warming? This paper attempts to shed light on these two important questions. A cross-sectional analysis is employed to estimate the climate sensitivity of agriculture in Brazil and India. Using panel data from both countries| the study measures how net farm income or property values vary with climate| and consequently| how farmers in India and Brazil react and adapt to climate. The estimated relationships are then used to predict the consequence of alternative climate scenarios. Global warming by the end of the next century could cause annual damages in Brazil between 1% and 39% and between 4% and 26% in India| although some of this effect may be potentially offset by carbon fertilization. These estimates do not factor into account climate-induced extreme weather events. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1139,2008,3,4,The importance of carbon footprint estimation boundaries,Because of increasing concern about global climate change and carbon emissions as a causal factor| many companies and organizations are pursuing "carbon footprint" projects to estimate their own contributions to global climate change. Protocol definitions from carbon registries help organizations analyze their footprints. The scope of these protocols varies but generally suggests estimating only direct emissions and emissions from purchased energy| with less focus on supply chain emissions. In contrast| approaches based on comprehensive environmental life-cycle assessment methods are available to track total emissions across the entire supply chain| and experience suggests that following narrowly defined estimation protocols will generally lead to large underestimates of carbon emissions for providing products and services. Direct emissions from an industry are| on average| only 14% of the total supply chain carbon emissions (often called Tier 1 emissions)| and direct emissions plus industry energy inputs are| on average| only 26% of the total supply chain emissions (often called Tier 1 and 2 emissions). Without a full knowledge of their footprints| firms will be unable to pursue the most cost-effective carbon mitigation strategies. We suggest that firms use the screening-level analysis described here to set the bounds of their footprinting strategy to ensure that they do not ignore large sources of environmental effects across their supply chains. Such information can help firms pursue carbon and environmental emission mitigation projects not only within their own plants but also across their supply chain. 8677,2008,2,4,The importance of date of snowmelt for the separation of different oligotrophic and mesotrophic mountain vegetation types in Southern Norway,The main aim of this paper was to quantify the explanatory power of different "snow variables" for the separation of different mountain vegetation types. Three mountain Situated along an occanic-continental gradient were selected as study sites| and the sample plots ranged from 785 to 1440 in a.s.l. (182 in below to 473 ill above the climatic forest limit) and included both the Northern boreal zone (NB)| the Low alpine zone (LA) and the Middle alpine zone (MA). In total| 185 quadrates (2x2 in) were selected by a stratified random sampling procedure to represent a range of topography and different vegetation cover. Soil samples were analysed from each quadrate| and the variation in snow melt and soil temperature was monitored during the spring/summer. The three main floristic gradients identified by a DCA analysis were best explained by Julian day of snowmelt (r = 0.83)| relative altitude (r = -0.62)| and precipitation (regional climate) (r = -0.42) respectively. 16 vegetation types were separated by the use of TWINSPAN| and these were related to the environmental variables and compared with earlier phyto-sociological studies. A CVA analysis and Monte Carlo Permutation tests showed that the separated vegetation types were different in terms of all measured environmental variables| but Julian day of snowmelt explained the differences best| followed by altitude. Floristical and environmental variations were small between the NB and the LA zones. Vegetation stands in the MA zone (more than 250-300 in above the climatic forest limit) showed a relatively small floristic variation| and the vegetation stands were here limited to areas where maximum snow thickness (in April) varied between 0.5 and 2.5 m| and where Julian day of snowmelt occurred later than the middle part of May. On the basis of the present relationship between vegetation composition| Julian day of snowmelt and altitude| possible vegetational changes of global warming are predicted. 1070,2008,2,4,The Importance of Physiological Limits in Determining Biogeographical Range Shifts due to Global Climate Change: The Heat-Shock Response,Physiological processes that set an organism's thermal limits are in part determining recent shifts in biogeographic distribution ranges due to global climate change. Several characteristics of the heat-shock response (HSR)| such as the onset| maximal| and upper limit of heat-shock protein (Hsp) synthesis| contribute to setting the acute upper thermal limits of most organisms. Aquatic animals from stable| moderately variable| or highly variable thermal environments differ in their HSR. Some animals living in extremely stable thermal environments lack the response altogether. In contrast| rocky intertidal animals that experience highly variable thermal conditions start synthesizing Hsps| that is| the onset of synthesis| below the highest temperatures that they experience. Thus| these organisms experience thermal conditions in their environment that are close to the upper thermal limits in which they can defend themselves against cellular thermal insults by employing the HSR. Subtidal animals are characterized by moderately variable thermal environments| and their cells start synthesizing Hsps above the highest temperatures that they experience. The upper thermal limits against which they can defend themselves are thus much higher than the highest body temperatures they currently experience. Furthermore| the ability to acclimate to changing thermal conditions seems greatest among animals from moderately variable environments and limited in animals from stable and highly variable environments. Thus| these findings suggest that organisms with the narrowest (stenothermal) and the widest (highly eurythermal) temperature tolerance ranges live closest to their thermal limits and have a limited ability to acclimate| suggesting that they will be most affected by global climate change. 8598,2008,5,5,The influence of climatic and ice regime variability on navigation,Contemporary climatic processes are compared with the paleoclimate to reveal aspects that disagree with the theory of global warming. The results of reconstructing the processes on glacial and periglacial shelves in the Pleistocene and the analysis of temperature and ice regimes in Russia's western Arctic and southern seas| using the most complete oceanographic database| prove that contemporary climatic anomalies do not lap over the secular variability limits. 1244,2008,2,2,The influence of global climate change on air and soil temperatures in maize canopy,On the basis of the climate scenarios downscaled to Hungary from the IPCC Report (IPCC| 2007) by Bartholy et al. (2007)| we performed sensitivity analyses on air temperature in maize canopy. We created the scenario for 2071-2100 by using Goudriaan's (1977) simulation model (Crop Microclimate Simulation Model| CMSM). We selected eight scenarios including the control (1961-1990)| one of them examined the changes of the past decade| another one did the impacts of the doubled atmospheric CO(2) concentration. The remaining five scenarios contained different degrees of warming-up beside the doubled atmospheric CO(2) concentration as it follows: scenarios with +3.8| +4.8| +6.0| and two ones with +9.0 degrees C; the latter two differed only in the quantity of precipitation. Each approach increased the air temperature in maize canopy depending on the degree of warming-up. The changes already occurring in the environmental factors in the past decade increased the air temperature at cob level by 0.6 degrees C. The presence of plant canopy| however| mitigated the degree of warming-up| likely owing to the shadowing effect of the canopy. We should not ignore the fact that the compensating effect of the canopy depends on the canopy structure determined by the humidity supply. The analysis results made available local level information for the potential users that can provide apparent help in the preparation for the mitigation of adverse impacts of the expected changes. 8982,2008,2,4,The influence of temperature on the development of Baltic Sea sprat (Sprattus sprattus) eggs and yolk sac larvae,In spring 2004 and 2005 we performed two sets of experiments with Baltic sprat ( Sprattus sprattus balticus Schneider) eggs and larvae from the Bornholm Basin simulating ten different temperature scenarios. The goal of the present study was to analyse and parameterise temperature effects on the duration of developmental stages| on the timing of important ontogenetic transitions| growth during the yolk sac phase as well as on the survival success of eggs and early larval stages. Egg development and hatching showed exponential temperature dependence. No hatching was observed above 14.7 degrees C and hatching success was significantly reduced below 3.4 degrees C. Time to eye pigmentation| as a proxy for mouth gape opening| decreased with increasing temperatures from 17 days post hatch at 3.4 degrees C to 7 days at 13 degrees C whereas the larval yolk sac phase was shortened from 20 to 10 days at 3.8 and 10 degrees C respectively. Maximum survival duration of non- fed larvae was 25 days at 6.8 degrees C. Comparing the experimental results of Baltic sprat with existing information on sprat from the English Channel and North Sea differences were detected in egg development rate| thermal adaptation and in yolk sac depletion rate ( YSDR). Sprat eggs from the English Channel showed significantly faster development and the potential to develop at temperatures higher than 14.7 degrees C. North Sea sprat larvae were found to have a lower YSDR compared to larvae from the Baltic Sea. In light of the predictions for global warming| Baltic sprat stocks could experience improved conditions for egg development and survival. 9270,2008,3,2,The issue of Carbon dioxide emission in Poland,Global warming in the last century has become an established fact and though no single explanation of this cause of affairs has been offered| extensive efforts are made world-wide to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide emissions seem to vastly contribute to the greenhouse effect. Because of the scale of emissions of various pollutants| the level of complication and difficulty in their reduction| protection of atmospheric air| the biosphere and humans require the major commitment of the communities within the legal framework created by the state. Air protection is one of the major tasks in an environmental policy| requiring organisational structure as well as legal and economic instruments. In Poland air pollution is also caused by old industry| where energy and material consumption is huge. In the last decade the emission levels have decreased and air has become cleaner. Effective air protection require the measures to be taken at source| by applying the flue gas treatment methods using physico-chemical and chemical processes. It is unlikely that energy demand should decrease or that fossil fuels should be replaced. However| efforts should be made to limit CO2 emissions to the atmosphere| not only because it is responsible for climate warming. Emissions of anthropogenous CO2 involves the burning of fossil fuels: coal| oil and its derivatives and natural gas. Our civilisation now cannot do without those fuels| not only for generation of electricity but also in the chenucal sector processing oil and coal. The power generation sector is responsible for the largest emissions of CO2 in Poland (50%)| whilst in developed countries this proportion is only 35%. Renewable sources of energy are not able to meet the growing energy demand. An alternative solution is to resort to nuclear power to conserve fossil fuels and radically limit CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. 1104,2008,2,4,The Late Holocene extinction of Pinus sylvestris in the western Cantabrian Range (Spain),Aim To reconstruct the historical biogeography of Pinus sylvestris in the Cantabrian Range (Iberian Peninsula) during the Holocene| and to consider the interactions between vegetation dynamics| climate change and the role of man in the present-day distribution of the species. Location The study site is a mire (1300 m a.s.l.) at Vega de Viejos| on a south-facing slope of the western Cantabrian Range| Spain. The region's present-day landscape is almost treeless| with the exception of some patches of Quercus pyrenaica and a few copses of Salix and Betula along stream banks. Methods Tree macrofossils from Vega de Viejos were studied by transmitted light and dark-field reflection microscopy; strobili were subjected to comparative morphological analyses. Two Pinus macrofossils were dated by conventional (14)C methods. Results The taxonomic accuracy achieved in the identification of the macrofossils provided new information regarding the Holocene history of Pinus sylvestris in this territory. Ninety-five cones of this species were identified; in fact| more than 80% of the 36 identified wood remains were of Pinus gr. sylvestris. Radiocarbon dating revealed that the forest to which the fossils belonged was present until at least 2170 +/- 50 yr BP - its disappearance was therefore relatively recent. Main conclusions Pinus sylvestris suffered long-term isolation| and after the Wurm glacial period tended to migrate towards the east. In western Iberia| a temperate climate and autogenic succession favoured broadleaved taxa at the expense of Pinus. Late Holocene human disturbances may have further accelerated the decline of P. sylvestris; in the Cantabrian Range| only a few stands on southern slopes have persisted until the present day. The history of the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus)| a bird characteristic of pure or mixed Palaeartic coniferous forests| was almost certainly affected by the demise of these forests in this area. Cantabrian capercaillies are the only members of this species that live in purely deciduous forests| perhaps a recent adaptation to the regional extinction of pines. Today's P. sylvestris and capercaillie populations are now highly fragmented and their future| given the predictions of global climate change| is uncertain. 8809,2008,3,3,The monetary compensation mechanism: An alternative to the clean development mechanism,One of the key challenges in resolving global warming problem is how to induce developing countries to reduce emissions. The CDM was proposed in the Kyoto Protocol as a means of obtaining the cooperation of developing countries in controlling greenhouse gases| but it has some intrinsic problems and has generated considerable controversy. This paper presents an alternative mechanism - the Monetary Compensation Mechanism (MCM). I study the characteristics of this mechanism with a dynamic principal-agent model. By solving the model numerically| I obtain the optimal solution for a scenario based on 1990 data. The monetary compensation rate under the MCM is comparable to the price of CERs in the CDM| but the MCM has several advantages over the CDM. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1082,2008,3,4,The next generation of refrigerants - Historical review| considerations| and outlook,This article reviews the progression of refrigerants| from early uses to the present| and then addresses future directions and candidates. The article breaks the history into four refrigerant generations based on defining selection criteria. It discusses displacement of earlier working fluids| with successive criteria| and how interest in some early refrigerants re-emerged| for example renewed interest in those now identified as "natural refrigerants." The paper examines the outlook for current options in the contexts of existing international agreements| including the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols to avert stratospheric ozone depletion and global climate change| respectively. It also examines other environmental concerns and further international and local control measures. The discussion illustrates how isolated attention to individual environmental issues or regulatory requirements| in contrast to coordinated responses to the several issues together| can result in unintended environmental harm that almost certainly will require future reversals. It identifies pending policy and regulatory changes that may impact the next generation of refrigerants significantly. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 9212,2008,2,4,The ocean's role in climate variability,Because of its vast volume and heat capacity| the ocean contains most of the memory of the earth's ocean - atmosphere coupled system. It has been suggested that the ocean may delay global warming by absorbing large amounts of heat| that it may cause abrupt climate change due to its disrupted thermohaline circulation| and that it may set the time-scales for various climate oscillations. Although the slow pace and persistence of oceanic variations give hope to long-range prediction| there still exist large uncertainties in climate predictability. Presently available observations and models are generally inadequate for studying and predicting long-term climate changes. However| sonic short-term fluctuations such as ENSO have been well studied and shown to be highly predictable even with simplified models. 1248,2008,5,4,The oldest North American primate and mammalian biogeography during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,Undoubted primates first appear almost synchronously in the fossil records of Asia| Europe| and North America. This temporal pattern has complicated efforts to reconstruct the early dispersal history of primates in relation to global climate change and eustatic fluctuations in sea level. Here| I describe fossils from the Tuscahoma Formation on the Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi documenting an anatomically primitive species of Teilhardina that is older than other North American and European primates. Consistent with its antiquity| a phylogenetic analysis of dental characters recognizes Teilhardina magnoliana| sp. nov.| as the most basal member of this genus currently known from either North America or Europe. Its stratigraphic provenance demonstrates that primates originally colonized North America near the base of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)| but before an important fall in eustatic sea level. Correlation based on carbon isotope stratigraphy and sequence stratigraphy indicates that the earliest North American primates inhabited coastal regions of the continent for thousands of years before they were able to colonize the Rocky Mountain Interior. The transient provincialism displayed by early North American primates corresponds to similar biogeographic patterns noted among fossil plants. Decreased precipitation in the Rocky Mountain Interior during the early part of the PETM may have been an important factor in maintaining biotic provincialism within North America at this time. These results underscore the need to obtain multiple| geographically dispersed records bearing on significant macroevolutionary events such as the PETM. 9046,2008,3,3,THE PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF CO(2) MOBILE AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM WITH VARIOUS GAS COOLER PRESSURE AND OUTLET TEMPERATURE OF CO(2) FROM THE GAS COOLER,Because of global warming reality| CO(2) (R-744) can be used an alternative refrigerant for mobile air-conditioning systems. In this study| the coefficient of cooling performance (COP) and energy requirement for operating of a mobile CO(2) air-conditioning system compressor were investigated. In the analysis| various gas cooler pressure and outlet temperature from the gas cooler of the refrigerant were used as variable parameters. The evaporation temperature of CO(2) and superheating value of CO(2) in the internal heat exchanger were selected as + 5 degrees C and 10 degrees C respectively. The compressor isentropic efficiency was used as 0.7. The pressure losses in the system components were neglected. A computer program was used to obtain solutions of the equations and properties of CO(2). It was concluded that| the COP values of the system reach a maximum value with variation of the gas cooler pressure and outlet temperature from the gas cooler of the refrigerant. The COP value variation speed with outlet temperature from the gas cooler of the refrigerant slowed down with the increased gas cooler pressure. The results were presented with diagrams. 9153,2008,3,3,The potential of bio-methane as bio-fuel/bio-energy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions: a qualitative assessment for Europe in a life cycle perspective,Anaerobic digestion is a well known process that (while still capable of showing new features) has experienced several waves of technological development. It was "born" as a wastewater treatment system| in the 1970s showed promise as an alternative energy source (in particular from animal waste)| in the 1980s and later it became a standard for treating organic-matter-rich industrial wastewater| and more recently returned to the market for its energy recovery potential| making use of different biomasses| including energy crops. With the growing concern around global warming| this paper looks at the potential of anaerobic digestion in terms of reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The potential contribution of anaerobic digestion to GHG reduction has been computed for the 27 EU countries on the basis of their 2005 Kyoto declarations and using life cycle data. The theoretical potential contribution of anaerobic digestion to Kyoto and EU post- Kyoto targets has been calculated. Two different possible biogas applications have been considered: electricity production from manure waste| and upgraded methane production for light goods vehicles (from landfill biogas and municipal and industrial wastewater treatment sludges). The useful heat that can be produced as by-product from biogas conversion into electricity has not been taken into consideration| as its real exploitation depends on local conditions. Moreover the amount of biogas already produced via dedicated anaerobic digestion processes has also not been included in the calculations. Therefore the overall gains achievable would be even higher than those reported here. This exercise shows that biogas may considerably contribute to GHG emission reductions in particular if used as a biofuel. Results also show that its use as a biofuel may allow for true negative GHG emissions| showing a net advantage with respect to other biofuels. Considering also energy crops that will become available in the next few years as a result of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform| this study shows that biogas has the potential of covering almost 50% of the 2020 biofuel target of 10% of all automotive transport fuels| without implying a change in land use. Moreover| considering the achievable GHG reductions| a very large carbon emission trading "value" could support the investment needs. However| those results were obtained through a "qualitative" assessment. In order to produce robust data for decision makers| a quantitative sustainability assessment should be carried out| integrating different methodologies within a life cycle framework. The identification of the most appropriate policy for promoting the best set of options is then discussed. 8644,2008,3,1,The potential of water power in the fight against global warming in the US,The leading cause of climate change today is the burning of fossil fuels related to energy production. One approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions| therefore| is to more actively switch to renewable technologies in the production of electricity| and reduce the use of fossil fuels in electricity production. This is the goal of renewable portfolio standard (RPS) legislation| currently in effect in 28 states across the country. In this paper we discuss the potential for water power development as one method to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions. We look at the potential from (1) new small/micro hydropower dams| (2) uprating facilities at existing large hydropower dams| (3) new generating facilities at existing non-hydropower dams| and (4) hydrokinetics. We analyze this potential by type| by state| and by its ability to satisfy current RPS goals. Finally| we consider the cost-effectiveness of developing these sources of water-based energy. We find that while water power will never be the complete answer to emissions-free energy production| a strong case can be made that it can be a useful part of the answer. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1338,2008,3,2,The prospects for global green car mobility,The quest for green car mobility faces two major challenges: air pollution from exhaust emissions and global climate change from greenhouse gas emissions. Vehicle air pollution emissions are being successfully tackled in many countries by technical solutions such as low-sulphur fuels| unleaded petrol and three-way catalytic converters. Many researchers advocate a similar approach for overcoming transport's climate change impacts. This study argues that finding a technical solution for this problem is not possible. Instead| the world will have to move to an alternative surface transport system involving far lower levels of motorised travel. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9255,2008,3,3,The prospects for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) in Mesoamerica,The general reluctance of policy makers to include forests in discussions about global warming has changed with the development of C measures to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). Mesoamerica presents a logical starting point to promote REDD due to the extent of its forest| and the relatively advanced state of its forest management institutions and policies. This paper reviews the prospects for REDD in Mesoamerica using PES and other instruments| with emphasis on the effectiveness of REDD measures at reducing emissions| and their efficiency and fairness. It Concludes that in spite of reduced deforestation in the region| the growth of payments to avoid deforestation will be the most important policy change related to REDD in the region in the coining years. However| the magnitude and impact of any payments must not be exaggerated and Should be set in context of the overall trends resulting from broader social and economic dynamics. 8699,2008,4,4,The recent Arctic warm period,Arctic winter| spring and autumn surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies and associated sea level pressure (SLP) fields have decidedly different spatial patterns at the beginning of the 21st century (2000-2007) compared to most of the 20th century; we suggest calling this recent interval the Arctic warm period. For example| spring melt date as measured at the North Pole Environmental Observatory (2002-2007) is 7 d earlier than the records from the Russian North Pole stations (1937-1987) and statistically different at the 0.05 level. The 20th century was dominated by the two main climate patterns| the Arctic Oscillation/Northern Annular Mode (AO/NAM) and the Pacific North American-like (PNA*) pattern. The predominately zonal winds associated with the positive phases of these patterns contribute to warm anomalies in the Arctic primarily over their respective Eastern and Western Hemisphere land areas| as in 1989-1995 and 1977-1987. In contrast| SAT in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) for 2000-2007 show an Arctic-wide SAT anomaly of greater than +1.0 degrees C and regional hot spots over the central Arctic of greater than +3.0 degrees C. Unlike the AO and PNA*| anomalous geostrophic winds for 2000-2007 often tended to blow toward the central Arctic| a meridional wind circulation pattern. In spring 2000-2005| these winds were from the Bering Sea toward the North Pole| whereas in 2006-2007 they were mostly from the eastern Barents Sea. A meridional pattern was also seen in the late 1930s with anomalous winter (DJFM) SAT| at Spitzbergen| of greater than +4 degrees C. Both periods suggest natural atmospheric advective contributions to the hot spots with regional loss of sea ice. Recent warm SAT anomalies in autumn are consistent with climate model projections in response to summer reductions in sea ice extent. The recent dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice appears to be due to a combination of a global warming signal and fortuitous phasing of intrinsic climate patterns. 9241,2008,3,4,The recycling of plastic wastes from discarded TV sets: comparing energy recovery with mechanical recycling in the context of life cycle assessment,Two treatment options| i.e. energy recovery and mechanical recycling of plastic wastes from discarded TV sets| were compared in the context of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. An estimate for the environmental burden of each option was calculated as the sum of the depletion of abiotic resources (ADP)| the global warming potential (GWP)| the acidification potential (AP)| the photo-oxidant formation potential (POCP)| the eutrophication potential (EP)| and the human toxicity potential (HTP). After calculating the environmental burden of each treatment option| a sensitivity analysis was conducted. The ultimate aim was to indicate which parameters of the system have the strongest influence on the results of the LCA in order to find ways for lowering the environmental burden| and ultimately suggest a "design strategy" for TV sets. The main finding of this study was that mechanical recycling of plastics is more attractive treatment option in environmental terms than incineration for energy recovery| which generates a larger environmental burden. Finally| based on the results of sensitivity analysis| a "design strategy" was suggested| i.e. reducing the number of plastic types being used in the manufacturing process of TVs - preferably excluding the PVC. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8824,2008,2,4,The research of durative characteristics of dry/wet series of China during the past 1000 years,Using dry/wet index series of China during the past 531 years and 1041 years| by defining the dry (wet) grade and making running calculation of the appearance times of each dry (wet) grade in the original index series| it was shown that there is a exponential distribution P(x) = A * e(-gamma x) of the appearance times of each grade with respect to the window size. We defined 1/gamma as the scale factor to characterize the dry (wet) durative and used it to analyze the dry (wet) durative of north China and the area between Yangtze and Huai rivers. Results show that the city factor has the semi-belt wave distribution from north to south| the dry durative in north China is somewhat longer than that between Yangtze and Huai rivers| the average dry factors of area A| B and C are 1.87| 1.62 and 1.82| respectively. The dry (wet) durative is rather obvious in those intervals in which dry or wet are comparatively concentrated| so the large spatial scale and synchronized extreme dry accidents are easier to happen during the end of 12th century| the beginning of 13th century| the beginning of 17th century and the end of 20th century| which verifies the existence of cluster phenomena in the dry/wet index. The influence to dry durative in north China caused by the dry/wet index during 1260-1280 (the climate back ground being the end of the middle ages warm) was much lavger than that caused by the index during 1980-2000 (the climate background being the global warming). Furthermore| the number of dry years during 1260-1280 was also larger than that of 1980-2000. Obviously| serious| larger spatial scale and synchronized extreme dry accidents are easy to happen in warm periods| and the drought since 1970s in north China might be caused by co-operation of human and natural factors| in which the natural factor might have played the more important role. 1245,2008,4,4,The responding relationship between plants and environment is the essential principle for agricultural sustainable development on the globe,The mutual-responding relationship between plants and environment is involved in all life processes| which are the essential bases for different types of sustainable development on the globe| particularly the critical basis for agricultural sustainable development. How to regulate the above relationship between plants and the corresponding environment (in particular soil environment) is the key problem to modern sustainable agriculture development under global climate change| which is one of the hot topics in the field of plant biology. Detailed dissection of this responding relationship is also important for conducting global eco-environmental restoration and construction. Although powerful methodology and dataset related to genomics| post-genomics| and metabolomics have provided some insights into this relationship| crop physiological measures are also critical for crop full performance in field. With the increase of tested plants (including model plants) and development of integrated molecular biology| a complete understanding of the relationship at different scales under biotic and abiotic stresses will be accelerated. In the current paper| we will cover some important aspects in combination with the recent work from our laboratory and related advances reflected by international academic journals| as follows: plant physiological function performance under natural condition| plant gene regulatory network system under abiotic stresses| gene regulatory network system and drought resistance improvement| summary of the related work from our laboratory| conclusions| and acknowledgement. 8919,2008,2,4,The response of lake-glacier variations to climate change in Nam Co Catchment| central Tibetan Plateau| during 1970-2000,Based upon the 1970 aero-photo topographic map| and TM/ETM satellite images taken in 1991 and 2000| the authors artificially interpreted boundaries of lake and glaciers in Nam Co Catchment| and quantified lake-glacier area variations in different stages by "integrated method" with the support of GIS. Results show that from 1970 to 2000| lake area increased from 1942.34 km(2) to 1979.79 km(2) at a rate of 1.27 km(2)/a| while glacier area decreased from 167.62 km(2) to 141.88 km(2) at a rate of 0.86 km(2)/a. The increasing rate of lake in 1991-2000 was 1.76 km(2)/a that was faster than 1.03 km(2)/a in 1970-1991| while in the same period of time| the shrinking rates of glaciers were 0.97 km(2)/a and 0.80 km(2)/a respectively. Important factors| relevant to lake and glacier response to the climate| such as air temperature| precipitation| potential evapotranspiration and their values in warm and cold seasons| were discussed. The result suggests that temperature increasing is the main reason for the accelerated melting of glaciers. Lake expansion is mainly induced by the increase of the glacier melting water| increase of precipitation and obvious decrease of potential evapotranspiration. Precipitation| evaporation and their linkages with lake enlargement on regional scale need to be thoroughly studied under the background of global warming and glacier retreating. 1094,2008,4,2,The response of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change: Towards an integrated approach,Accumulating evidence points to an anthropogenic 'fingerprint' on the global climate change that has occurred in the last century. Climate change has| and will continue to have| profound effects on the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. As such| there is a critical need to continue to develop a sound scientific basis for national and international policies regulating carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reflects on the nature of current global change experiments| and provides recommendations for a unified multidisciplinary approach to future research in this dynamic field. These recommendations include: (1) better integration between experiments and models| and amongst experimental| monitoring| and space-for-time studies; (2) stable and increased support for long-term studies and multi-factor experiments; (3) explicit inclusion of biodiversity| disturbance| and extreme events in experiments and models; (4) consideration of timing vs intensity of global change factors in experiments and models; (5) evaluation of potential thresholds or ecosystem 'tipping points'; and (6) increased support for model-model and model-experiment comparisons. These recommendations| which reflect discussions within the TERACC international network of global change scientists| will facilitate the unraveling of the complex direct and indirect effects of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and their components. Published by Elsevier B.V. 8901,2008,4,4,The role of amoeboid protists and the microbial community in moss-rich terrestrial ecosystems: Biogeochemical implications for the carbon budget and carbon cycle| especially at higher latitudes,Moss-rich terrestrial communities are widely distributed in low- and high-latitude environments| covering vast surface areas in the boreal forests and tundra. The microbial biota in these organic-rich communities may contribute substantially to the carbon budget of terrestrial communities and the carbon cycle on a global scale. Recent research is reported on the carbon content of microbial communities in some temperate and high-latitude moss communities. The total carbon content and potential respiratory carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux is reported for bacteria| microflagellates| naked amoebae| and testate amoebae within sampling sites at a northeastern forest and the tundra at Toolik| Alaska. Quantitative models of the predicted total CO2 efflux from the microbes| based on microscopic observations and enumeration of the microbiota in samples from the research sites| are described and predictions are compared with published field-based data of CO2 efflux. The significance of the predictions for climate change and global warming are discussed. 1296,2008,2,3,The role of climate and emission changes in future air quality over southern Canada and northern Mexico,Potential impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional air quality over southern (western and eastern) Canada and northern Mexico are examined by comparing future summers' (i.e.| 2049-2051) average regional O(3) and PM(2.5) concentrations with historic concentrations (i.e.| 2000-2002 summers). Air quality modeling was conducted using CMAQ and meteorology downscaled from the GISS-GCM using MM5. Emissions for North America are found using US EPA| Mexican and Canadian inventories and projected emissions following CAIR and IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Higher temperatures for all sub-regions and regional changes in mixing height| insolation and precipitation are forecast in the 2049-2051 period. Future emissions are calculated to be lower over both Canadian sub-regions| but higher over northern Mexico. Global climate change| alone| is predicted to affect PM(2.5) concentrations more than O(3) for the projections used in this study: average daily maximum eight (8) hour O(3) (M8hO(3)) concentrations are estimated to be slightly different in all examined sub-regions while average PM(2.5) concentrations are estimated to be higher over both Canadian sub-regions (8% over western and 3% over eastern) but 11% lower over northern Mexico. More days are forecast where M8hO(3) concentrations are over 75 ppb in all examined sub-regions but the number of days where PM(2.5) concentration will be over 15 mu g/m(3) is projected higher only over western Canada. Climate change combined with the projected emissions lead to greater change in pollutant concentrations: average M8hO(3) concentrations are simulated to be 6% lower over western Canada and 8% lower over eastern Canada while average PM(2.5) concentrations are simulated to be 5% lower over western Canada and 11% lower over eastern Canada. Although future emissions over northern Mexico are projected higher| pollutant concentrations are simulated to be lower due to US emissions reductions. Global climate change combined with the projected emissions will decrease average M8hO(3) 4% and PM(2.5) 17% over northern Mexico. Significant reductions in the number of days where M8hO(3) concentrations are over 75 ppb and PM(2.5) concentration over 15 mu g/m(3) are also projected with a significant reduction in peak values. 8947,2008,4,4,The role of ocean dynamics in tropical Pacific SST response to warm climate in a fully coupled GCM,A global coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM forced by a zonally uniform heat flux anomaly in the tropics is used to investigate the role of oceanic dynamics in regulating the tropical Pacific SST response to warm climate. Consistent with earlier CZ model simulations| the GCM simulation demonstrates a La-Nina like response in the tropical Pacific| with the equatorial upwelling playing a dominant role. While the mean upwelling tends to reduce the overall surface warming due to the strengthening of the equatorial thermocline| the anomalous upwelling associated with the strengthening of the easterlies leads to a weak warming in the east. This easterly wind anomaly can be partly attributed to the enhanced equator-subtropical SST gradient which forces a stronger trade wind. Application to global warming is discussed. 8510,2008,3,2,The role of process intensification in cutting greenhouse gas emissions,Between 1900 and 1955 the average rate of global energy use rose from about 1 TW to 2 TW. Between 1955 and 1999 energy use rose from 2 TW to about 12 TW| and to 2006 a further 16% growth in primary energy use was recorded world-wide. There are recommendations by the UK Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution| subsequently supported by others in the UK| that we need to reduce CO2 emissions by over 50% in order to stabilise their impact on global warming (CO2 being the principal gas believed to be contributing to this phenomenon). One way in which we can address this is by judicious use of process intensification technology. Process intensification may be defined as: "Any engineering development that leads to a substantially smaller| cleaner| safer and more energy-efficient technology." It is most often characterised by a huge reduction in plant volume - orders of magnitude - but its contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions may also be significant. Potential energy savings due to investment in process intensification were studied by several UK organisations in the mid 1990s| to assist the UK Government in formulating a strategy on intensification. It is relevant to the themes of the PRES 07 Conference that process integration features in these analyses. Overall plant intensification in the UK was identified as having a technical potential of 40 PJ/year (about 1 million tonnes of oil equivalent/annum). The total potential energy savings due to investment in process intensification in a range of process unit operations were predicted to be over 74 PJ/year (1 PJ = 10(15) J). Projections for The Netherlands suggest that savings of 50-100 PJ/year should be achieved across chemicals and food processing by 2050. Substantial benefits to industry in the USA are highlighted by US Department of Energy studies. This paper relates by discussion and example process intensification to the main themes of the PRES 07 Conference| including process integration. It also identifies the challenges that process intensification is meeting across a range of sectors of industry and commerce| in particular as they relate to greenhouse gas control. By highlighting here the main mechanisms that 'enhance' heat and mass transfer in intensified plant| the reader may be stimulated to examine his/her current inefficient processes. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8865,2008,4,3,The sensitivity of polar ozone depletion to proposed geoengineering schemes,The large burden of sulfate aerosols injected into the stratosphere by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 cooled Earth and enhanced the destruction of polar ozone in the subsequent few years. The continuous injection of sulfur into the stratosphere has been suggested as a "geoengineering" scheme to counteract global warming. We use an empirical relationship between ozone depletion and chlorine activation to estimate how this approach might influence polar ozone. An injection of sulfur large enough to compensate for surface warming caused by the doubling of atmospheric CO(2) would strongly increase the extent of Arctic ozone depletion during the present century for cold winters and would cause a considerable delay| between 30 and 70 years| in the expected recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. 8846,2008,2,4,The spatiotemporal structure of twentieth-century climate variations in observations and reanalyses. Part I: Long-term trend,The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENSO signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections| an ENSO-removal method is developed through which the ENSO signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed| long-term climate variations are isolated at mid-and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalysis datasets. This paper addresses the long-term global warming trend (GW); a companion paper concentrates on Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV). The warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4 K in the twentieth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8 K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/ or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40)| a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with the GW trend is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets| especially in the tightly coupled dynamics and water vapor fields. The dynamics fields based on NCEP-NCAR| which show a change in the Walker Circulation| are consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However| intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in ERA-40 instead. 8847,2008,4,4,The spatiotemporal structure of twentieth-century climate variations in observations and reanalyses. Part II: Pacific pan-decadal variability,The spatiotemporal structure of Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV) is isolated in global long-term surface temperature (ST) datasets and reanalysis atmospheric parameter fields from which El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects have been removed. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and combined EOF analysis of the resulting time series identify PDV as one of two primary modes of long-term variability| the other being a global warming (GW) trend| which is addressed in a companion paper (Part I). In this study| it is shown that one of several PDV interdecadal regime shifts occurred during the 1990s. This significant change in the Pacific basin is comparable but antiphase to the well-known 1976 climate regime shift and is consistent with the observed changes in biosystems and ocean circulation. A comprehensive picture of PDV as manifested in the troposphere and at the surface is described. In general| the PDV spatial patterns in different parameter fields share some similarities with the patterns associated with ENSO| but important differences exist. First| the PDV circulation pattern is shifted westward by about 20 and is less zonally extended than that for ENSO. The westward shift of the PDV wave train produces a different North American teleconnection pattern that is more west-east oriented. The lack of a strong PDV surface temperature (ST) signal in the west equatorial Pacific and the relatively strong ST signal in the subtropical regions are consistent with an atmospheric overturning circulation response that differs from the one associated with ENSO. The analysis also suggests that PDV is a combination of decadal and/or interdecadal oscillations interacting through teleconnections. 1059,2008,5,4,The thermohaline expressway: the Southern Ocean as a centre of origin for deep-sea octopuses,Understanding how environmental forcing has generated and maintained large-scale patterns of biodiversity is a key goal of evolutionary research and critical to predicting the impacts of global climate change. We suggest that the initiation of the global thermohaline circulation provided a mechanism for the radiation of Southern Ocean fauna into the deep sea. We test this hypothesis using a relaxed phylogenetic approach to coestimate phylogeny and divergence times for a lineage of octopuses with Antarctic and deep-sea representatives. We show that the deep-sea lineage had their evolutionary origins in Antarctica| and estimate that this lineage diverged around 33 million years ago (Ma) and subsequently radiated at 15 Ma. Both of these dates are critical in development of the thermohaline circulation and we suggest that this has acted as an evolutionary driver enabling the Southern Ocean to become a centre of origin for deep-sea fauna. This is the first unequivocal molecular evidence that deep-sea fauna from other ocean basins originated from Southern Ocean taxa and this is the first evidence to be dated. (c) The Willi Hennig Society 2008. 8956,2008,4,4,The turnover of organic carbon in subsoils. Part 2. Modelling carbon turnover,A new model| RothPC-1| is described for the turnover of organic C in the top metre of soil. RothPC-1 is a version of RothC-26.3| an earlier model for the turnover of C in topsoils. In RothPC-1 two extra parameters are used to model turnover in the top metre of soil: one| p| which moves organic C down the profile by an advective process| and the other| s| which slows decomposition with depth. RothPC-1 is parameterized and tested using measurements (described in Part 1| this issue) of total organic C and radiocarbon on soil profiles from the Rothamsted long-term field experiments| collected over a period of more than 100 years. RothPC-1 gives fits to measurements of organic C and radiocarbon in the 0-23| 23-46| 46-69 and 69-92 cm layers of soil that are almost all within (or close to) measurement error in two areas of regenerating woodland (Geescroft and Broadbalk Wildernesses) and an area of cultivated land from the Broadbalk Continuous Wheat Experiment. The fits to old grassland (the Park Grass Experiment) are less close. Two other sites that provide the requisite pre- and post-bomb data are also fitted; a prairie Chernozem from Russia and an annual grassland from California. Roth-PC-1 gives a close fit to measurements of organic C and radiocarbon down the Chernozem profile| provided that allowance is made for soil age; with the annual grassland the fit is acceptable in the upper part of the profile| but not in the clay-rich Bt horizon below. Calculations suggest that treating the top metre of soil as a homogeneous unit will greatly overestimate the effects of global warming in accelerating the decomposition of soil C and hence on the enhanced release of CO2 from soil organic matter; more realistic estimates will be obtained from multi-layer models such as RothPC-1. 9220,2008,2,4,The Unprecedented Freezing Disaster in January 2008 in Southern China and Its Possible Association with the Global Warming,The unprecedented disaster of low temperature and persistent rain| snow| and ice storms| causing widespread freezing in the Yangtze River Basin and southern China in January 2008| is not a local or regional event| but a part of the chain events of large-scale low temperature and snow storms in the same period in Asia. The severity and impacts of the southern China 2008 freezing disaster were the most significant among others. This disastrous event was characterized by three major features: (1) snowfall| freezing rain| and rainfall| the three forms of precipitation| coexisted with freezing rain being the dominant producer responsible for the disaster; (2) low temperature| rain and snow| and freezing rain exhibited extremely great intensity| with record-breaking measurements observed for eight meteorological variables based on the statistics made by China National Climate Center and the provincial meteorological services in the Yangtze River Basin and southern China; (3) the disastrous weathers persisted for an exceptionally long time period| unrecorded before in the meteorological observation history of China. The southern China 2008 freezing disaster may be resulted from multiple different factors that superimpose on and interlink with one another at the right time and place. Among them| the La Nina situation is a climate background that provided conducive conditions for the intrusions of cold air into southern China; the persistent anomaly of the atmospheric circulation in Eurasia is the direct cause for a succession of cold air incursions into southern China; and the northward transport of warm and moist airflows from the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea finally warranted the formation of the freezing rain and snow storms and their prolonged dominance in the southern areas of China. A preliminary discussion of a possible association of this disastrous event with the global warming is presented. This event may be viewed as a short-term regional perturbation to the global warming. There is not any possibility for this event to divert the long-term trend and the overall pattern of the global warming. 8898,2008,3,3,The use of life-cycle assessment to evaluate the environmental impacts of growing genetically modified| nitrogen use-efficient canola,Agriculture| particularly intensive crop production| makes a significant contribution to environmental pollution. A variety of canola (Brassica napus) has been genetically modified to enhance nitrogen use efficiency| effectively reducing the amount of fertilizer required for crop production. A partial life-cycle assessment adapted to crop production was used to assess the potential environmental impacts of growing genetically modified| nitrogen use-efficient (GMNUE) canola in North Dakota and Minnesota compared with a conventionally bred control variety. The analysis took into account the entire production system used to produce 1 tonne of canola. This comprised raw material extraction| processing and transportation| as well as all agricultural field operations. All emissions associated with the production of 1 tonne of canola were listed| aggregated and weighted in order to calculate the level of environmental impact. The findings show that there are a range of potential environmental benefits associated with growing GMNUE canola. These include reduced impacts on global warming| freshwater ecotoxicity| eutrophication and acidification. Given the large areas of canola grown in North America and| in particular| Canada| as well as the wide acceptance of genetically modified varieties in this area| there is the potential for GMNUE canola to reduce pollution from agriculture| with the largest reductions predicted to be in greenhouse gases and diffuse water pollution. 8940,2008,2,4,The variation of discharge entering the Niger Delta system| 1951-2000| and estimates of change under global warming,A simple and effective statistical scheme for estimating river discharges on the River Niger has been derived using catchment rainfall data. Observed station annual average discharges at two locations were correlated with averaged annual rainfall data in recent years (1951-2000). A comparison of the estimated discharge and the observed discharge showed good agreement. The upstream station of Gaya on the border of Niger and Nigeria| with more extensive records| was used to validate the technique. A more limited discharge record at Lokoja| at the focal point of the Niger Delta| is used to reconstruct the discharge over 1951-2000. Despite the extensive dam construction on the Upper Niger during this period the main determinant of flow into the Delta has remained upstream rainfall. The relationship between the past rainfall data and river discharges at Lokoja are used to predict flows in the 2070s using rainfall values derived from various scenarios of a set of coupled climate model simulations. While there is uncertainty even over the sign of future change in west African rainfall| the river flow inferred from those models predicting increased rainfall over the coming century is at a level consistent with rapid change in channel position| as observed during the 1990s. This technique could be applied more widely to forecast future discharges from major river systems. Copyright (c) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society. 9139,2008,3,4,Thermal and environmental assessment of a passive building equipped with an earth-to-air heat exchanger in France,In France| where a division by 4 of the greenhouse gases emissions is aimed from 1990 to 2050| technical solutions are studied in order to reduce energy consumption while providing a satisfactory thermal comfort level in buildings. A two-dwelling passive building has been carried out in Formerie (North-West of France)| complying the "Passivhaus" standard. This building| not yet monitored| has been modeled using the dynamic simulation software COMFIE| which is dedicated to building eco-design. In order to account for the implemented ventilation system| including a heat recovery unit and an earth-to-air heat exchanger| a specific model has been developed and integrated to COMFIE as a new module. In this article| this model is described first. In order to quantify the benefits brought by a passive design| the simulation results are presented for the passive house and a reference house complying with the French thermal regulation for buildings. The heating load and thermal comfort level of both houses are compared| showing for the passive design a tenfold reduction of the heating load and a clear reduction of summer discomfort. Finally| the environmental assessment - carried out with the life cycle assessment tool EQUER - shows the reduction in primary energy consumption| global warming potential and other impacts brought by the passive house design. Passive house appears to be an adequate solution to improve the environmental performances of buildings in the French context. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9249,2008,3,3,Thermal behavior of sewage sludge derived fuels,The utility of sewage sludge as a biomass fuel is taken as an approach to deal with global warming. Thermal characterization of this new type of fuel is a premise before it is practically used in real facilities. Four sludge derived fuels were examined by thermal calorimeters (TG-DTA| C80| and TAM) at temperature ramp and isothermal conditions. Heat generation at low temperature was found in some sludge species. The corresponding spontaneous ignition was measured in an adiabatic spontaneous ignition tester at 80 degrees C The reason of the thermal behaviors of the sludge fuels was discussed The critical temperature of large scale pile-up was predicted 1265,2008,2,4,Thermal tolerance| acclimatory capacity and vulnerability to global climate change,Despite evidence that organismal distributions are shifting in response to recent climatic warming| we have little information on direct links between species' physiology and vulnerability to climate change. We demonstrate a positive relationship between upper thermal tolerance and its acclimatory ability in a well-defined clade of closely related European diving beetles. We predict that species with the lowest tolerance to high temperatures will be most at risk from the adverse effects of future warming| since they have both low absolute thermal tolerance and poor acclimatory ability. Upper thermal tolerance is also positively related to species' geographical range size| meaning that species most at risk are already the most geographically restricted ones| being endemic to Mediterranean mountain systems. Our findings on the relationship between tolerance and acclimatory ability contrast with results from marine animals| suggesting that generalizations regarding thermal tolerance and responses to future rapid climate change may be premature. 9194,2008,2,4,Thinning of the south dome of Barnes Ice Cap| Arctic Canada| over the past two decades,Between 1970 and 1984| ground surveys were carried out along a flowline extending from the top of the south dome of Barnes Ice Cap to the margin. Over this time span| the ice cap thinned an average of 1.7 m| or 0.12 m yr(-1). By comparing the 1984 survey with elevations derived from satellite imagery in 2006| we find that it has now thinned an additional 16.8 +/- 7.7 m| or an average of similar to 0.76 +/- 0.35 m yr(-1). Laser altimeter profiles show that between 2004 and 2006| the thinning rate was 1.0 +/- 0.14 m yr(-1). A correlation between mass balance and mean summer temperature at nearby weather stations| developed over the period of the ground surveys| permits independent estimates of the thinning rate. These estimates are in excellent agreement with those based on satellite imagery. The acceleration in thinning is consistent with meteorological records documenting an increase in the number of positive degree-days (atmospheric warming) in the region. 8553,2008,2,4,Thresholds of hypoxia for marine biodiversity,Hypoxia is a mounting problem affecting the world's coastal waters| with severe consequences for marine life| including death and catastrophic changes. Hypoxia is forecast to increase owing to the combined effects of the continued spread of coastal eutrophication and global warming. A broad comparative analysis across a range of contrasting marine benthic organisms showed that hypoxia thresholds vary greatly across marine benthic organisms and that the conventional definition of 2 mg O-2/liter to designate waters as hypoxic is below the empirical sublethal and lethal O-2 thresholds for half of the species tested. These results imply that the number and area of coastal ecosystems affected by hypoxia and the future extent of hypoxia impacts on marine life have been generally underestimated. 8717,2008,2,4,Thufur and Turf Exfollation in a Subalpine Grassland on Mt Halla| Jeju Island| Korea,Thufur| 42-200 cm long and 9-27 cm high| are distributed in a summit crater of Mt Halla where freeze-thaw days occur over 70 times annually. The cryogenic mounds are frozen as a hard solid mass during winter and their lower part remains frozen until late April even though they begin to thaw in mid-March. Since the water content of thufur increases and exceeds a liquid limit during March and April| thufur soils may be subject to cryoturbation. An exfoliating terrace in a northwestern grassland of Mt Halla retreated at a rate of 22.2 mm/year from 2002 to 2004. Frost action is the process contributing most to turf exfoliation| with the maximum retreat rate observed from late March to early May. Thufur and turf exfoliation indicate that the subalpine grassland of Mt Halla is likely to be situated in a periglacial environment. However| global warming has affected these periglacial features through vegetation changes. The withering of alpine shrubs is partly responsible for the formation of crater-like thufur and subsequent rupture of thufur| while the rapid spread of Sasa quelpaertensis checks the retreat of turf terraces. 1096,2008,4,4,TIBETAN OBSERVATION AND RESEARCH PLATFORM Atmosphere-Land Interaction over a Heterogeneous Landscape,The Tibetan Plateau| with the most prominent and complicated terrain on the globe and an elevation of more than 4|000 m| on average| above sea level| is very important in Asian monsoon circulation and global climate change. The lack of quantitative understanding of interactions between the land surface and atmosphere makes it difficult to model the complete energy and water cycles over the Tibetan Plateau and their effects on global climate change. Therefore| the number of atmosphere-land interaction studies over the Tibetan Plateau has increased in recent years. But experiments have been limited by observational parameters| and most investigations have only been done in summer and at a few locations. With support from various agencies in the People's Republic of China| a Tibetan Observation and Research Platform (TORP) is now focusing on land-surface processes and the environment over the plateau| with an emphasis on atmosphere-land interaction. We show the background and the progress of TORPs long-term monitoring plan (5-10 years)| as well as present the TORP data policy and the uses of TORP data. (Page 1487) 8694,2008,4,4,Time trend estimation with breaks in temperature time series,This paper deals with the modelling of the global and northern and southern hemispheric anomaly temperature time series using a novel technique based on segmented trends and fractional integration. We use a procedure that permits us to estimate linear time trends and orders of integration at various subsamples| where the periods for the changing trends are endogenously determined by the model. Moreover| we use a non-parametric approach (Bloomfield P| Biometrika| 60:217-226| 1973) for modelling the I(0) deviation term. The results show that the three series (global| northern and southern temperatures) can be well described in terms of fractional integration with the orders of integration around 0.5 in the three cases. The coefficients associated to the time trends are statistically significant in all subsamples for the three series| especially during the final part of the sample| giving then some support to the global warming theories. 1223,2008,2,4,Timing and distance of King Eider migration and winter movements,Understanding the patterns| extent| and phenology of migration is important for estimating potential influences of habitat or climate changes on populations of migratory birds. We used satellite telemetry of >100 individual King Eiders (Somateria spectabilis) tagged in northwestern North America in 2002-2006 to describe the timing and extent of their migration and winter movements in the Bering Sea. We found high variability in timing of migration events and distances flown. Arrival on breeding grounds and onset of molt migration were the least variable events in duration. Fall migration was extremely variable| ranging from less than a week to several months. More than a third of King Eiders did not migrate after wing molt and wintered on or near wing-molting areas. We found diffuse migratory connectivity between breeding and wintering areas| and low intrayear fidelity to 25 km radius wintering sites. More than half of the King Eiders used several wintering sites in a given year| and their winter ranges were considerably larger than those of other sea duck species. We identified three distinct wintering regions in the Bering Sea that were several hundred km apart| among which no movements occurred from late December until April. The onset of spring migration was earlier for birds wintering farther south| but arrival time on breeding grounds was not correlated with wintering latitude. We conclude that high phenotypic plasticity in migratory traits may render King Eiders more likely to respond to environmental shifts than sea duck species that show stronger migratory connectivity. 8837,2008,4,4,Total sulfur concentration in geological reference materials by elemental infrared analyser,Total sulfur is an analyte for which there are few determinations published| despite the fact that it is a very important element (e.g.| a major element in most ores| an important gas constituent in global warming| an active participant in acid drainage). Most geological reference materials have very poor quality sulfur results| that is with relative standard deviations (RSD) in the range of 30-50%| even for concentrations over 100 mu g g(-1) S| which compromises their use as calibrators. In order to provide modern results with low RSD| sulfur was determined in twenty-nine geological reference materials with a state-of-the-art elemental S/C analyser using metal chips (certified reference materials with a traceability link) and analytical grade sulfur for high concentration samples. Analytical parameters (sample mass| crucible degassing| calibration strategy| etc.) were optimised by testing. Our results agreed with reference material values provided by issuing bodies. Results for CCRMP SY-2 (129 +/- 13 mu g g(-1) S)| which has been proposed as a sulfur reference material| were in agreement with the proposed modern value of 122 +/- 3.7 mu g g(-1) S. 9112,2008,3,2,Towards a worldwide sustainable and simultaneous large-scale production of renewable energy and potable water through salinity gradient power by combining reversed electrodialysis and solar power?,The pressure on the environment by human activity is still increasing and natural fossil resources are rapidly being Consumed. Oil reserves oil our planet are indeed restricted and at the Current pace those reserves will be depleted within a few generations. Mankind is indeed searching for alternative energy sources such as wind energy but such sources call deliver only a very small fraction ofthe energy consumption all over the world. In addition| the effects of global warming from the human activity on Our planet are accepted as beino proven. Carbon dioxide is the main cause of global warming and therefore the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions are becoming a first priority. As a result| a break-through technology which call produce in a sustainable way vast amounts of (Carbon dioxide free) green energy. with moreover a simultaneous production of potable water| would really be of utmost importance for all living creatures Oil Out- Planet. Such a technolooy could be feasible ifseawater desalination for the production of potable water would be combined with salinity gradient power by reversed electrodialysis (SGPRE) and solar power. 8870,2008,2,2,Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon 'dieback',Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3)| including carbon cycle model and forced by a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario| predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land surface scheme is investigated. We analyse how the modelled vegetation cover in Amazonia responds to (i) uncertainty in the parameters specified in the atmosphere component of HadCM3 and their associated influence on predicted surface climate. We then enhance the land surface description and (ii) implement a multilayer canopy light interception model and compare with the simple 'big-leaf' approach used in the original simulations. Finally| (iii) we investigate the effect of changing the method of simulating vegetation dynamics from an area-based model (TRIFFID) to a more complex size-and age-structured approximation of an individual-based model (ecosystem demography). We find that the loss of Amazonian rainforest is robust across the climate uncertainty explored by perturbed physics simulations covering a wide range of global climate sensitivity. The introduction of the refined light interception model leads to an increase in simulated gross plant carbon uptake for the present day| but| with altered respiration| the net effect is a decrease in net primary productivity. However| this does not significantly affect the carbon loss from vegetation and soil as a consequence of future simulated depletion in soil moisture; the Amazon forest is still lost. The introduction of the more sophisticated dynamic vegetation model reduces but does not halt the rate of forest dieback. The potential for human-induced climate change to trigger the loss of Amazon rainforest appears robust within the context of the uncertainties explored in this paper. Some further uncertainties should be explored| particularly with respect to the representation of rooting depth. 8918,2008,4,4,Towards ultra-high resolution models of climate and weather,We present a speculative extrapolation of the performance aspects of an atmospheric general circulation model to ultra-high resolution and describe alternative technological paths to realize integration of such a model in the relatively near future. Due to a superlinear scaling of the computational burden dictated by stability criterion| the solution of the equations of motion dominate the calculation at ultra-high resolutions. From this extrapolation| it is estimated that a credible kilometer scale atmospheric model would require at least a sustained ten petaflop computer to provide scientifically useful climate simulations. Our design study portends an alternate strategy for practical power-efficient implementations of petaflop scale systems. Embedded processor technology could be exploited to tailor a custom machine designed to ultra-high climate model specifications at relatively affordable cost and power considerations. The major conceptual changes required by a kilometer scale climate model are certain to be difficult to implement. Although the hardware| software| and algorithms are all equally critical in conducting ultra-high climate resolution studies| it is likely that the necessary petaflop computing technology will be available in advance of a credible kilometer scale climate model 8727,2008,4,4,Tracing carbon flow in an arctic marine food web using fatty acid-stable isotope analysis,Global warming and the loss of sea ice threaten to alter patterns of productivity in arctic marine ecosystems because of a likely decline in primary productivity by sea ice algae. Estimates of the contribution of ice algae to total primary production range widely| from just 3 to > 50%| and the importance of ice algae to higher trophic levels remains unknown. To help answer this question| we investigated a novel approach to food web studies by combining the two established methods of stable isotope analysis and fatty acid (FA) analysis-we determined the C isotopic composition of individual diatom FA and traced these biomarkers in consumers. Samples were collected near Barrow| Alaska and included ice algae| pelagic phytoplankton| zooplankton| fish| seabirds| pinnipeds and cetaceans. Ice algae and pelagic phytoplankton had distinctive overall FA signatures and clear differences in delta(13)C for two specific diatom FA biomarkers: 16:4n-1 (-24.0 +/- 2.4 and -30.7 +/- 0.8 parts per thousand| respectively) and 20:5n-3 (-18.3 +/- 2.0 and -26.9 +/- 0.7 parts per thousand| respectively). Nearly all delta(13)C values of these two FA in consumers fell between the two stable isotopic end members. A mass balance equation indicated that FA material derived from ice algae| compared to pelagic diatoms| averaged 71% (44-107%) in consumers based on delta(13)C values of 16:4n-1| but only 24% (0-61%) based on 20:5n-3. Our estimates derived from 16:4n-1| which is produced only by diatoms| probably best represented the contribution of ice algae relative to pelagic diatoms. However| many types of algae produce 20:5n-3| so the lower value derived from it likely represented a more realistic estimate of the proportion of ice algae material relative to all other types of phytoplankton. These preliminary results demonstrate the potential value of compound-specific isotope analysis of marine lipids to trace C flow through marine food webs and provide a foundation for future work. 8401,2008,3,3,Transcending the replacement paradigm of solid-state lighting,The field of photonics starts with the efficient generation of light. The generation of efficient yet highly controllable light can indeed be accomplished with light-emitting diodes (LEDs)| which are| in principle| capable of generating white light with a 20 times greater efficiency than conventional light bulbs. Deployed on a global scale to replace conventional sources| such solid-state light sources will result in enormous benefits that| over a period of 10 years| include (1) gigantic energy savings of 1.9 x 10(20) joule| (2) a very substantial reduction in global-warming CO(2) emissions| (3) a strong reduction in the emission of pollutants such as acid-rain-causing SO(2)| mercury (Hg)| and uranium (U)| and (4) financial savings exceeding a trillion (10(12)) US$. These benefits can be accomplished by the "replacement paradigm" in which conventional light sources are replaced by more energy efficient| more durable| and non-toxic light sources. However| it will be shown that solid-state light sources can go beyond the replacement paradigm| by providing new capabilities including the control of spectrum| color temperature| polarization| temporal modulation| and spatial emission pattern. We will show that such future| "smart" light sources| can harness the huge potential of LEDs by offering multi-dimensional controllability that will enhance the functionality and performance of light sources in a wide range of applications. These applications include optical microscopy| imaging| display technologies| communications| networking| and transportation systems. (C) 2008 Optical Society of America 1318,2008,2,4,Transient shade and drought have divergent impacts on the temperature sensitivity of dark respiration in leaves of Geum urbanum,The respiratory response of plants to temperature is a critical biotic feedback in the study of global climate change. Few studies| however| have investigated the effects of environmental stresses on the short-term temperature response of dark respiration (R(dark)) at the leaf level. We investigated the effect of shade and transient drought on the temperature sensitivity (Q(10); the proportional increase in respiration per 10 degrees C increase in temperature) of R(dark) of Geum urbanum L. in controlled experiments. Shade effects were most pronounced following sustained| near-darkness| when rates of leaf Rdark at a set measuring temperature (25 degrees C) and the Q(10) of R(dark) were both reduced. By contrast| rates of leaf R(dark) and the Q(10) of R(dark) both increased in response to the onset of severe water stress. Water stress was associated with a rapid (but reversible) decline in rates of light-saturated photosynthesis (P(sat))| stomatal closure (g(s)) and progressive wilting. Re-watering resulted in a rapid recovery of P(sat)| g(s) and a decline in the Q(10) of R(dark) (due to larger proportional reductions in the rate of R(dark) measured at 25 degrees C compared with those measured at 14 degrees C). The concentration of soluble sugars in leaves did not decline during drought (5-7 day cycles) or shading| but during drought the starch concentration dropped| suggesting starch to sugar conversion helped to maintain homeostatic concentrations of soluble sugars. Thus| the drought and shade induced changes in R(dark) were unlikely to be due to stress-induced changes in substrate supply. Collectively| the data highlight the dynamic responses of respiratory Q(10) values to changes in water supply and sustained reductions in growth irradiance. If widespread| such changes in the Q(10) of leaf respiration could have important implications for predicted rates of ecosystem carbon exchange in the future| particularly in areas that experience more frequent droughts. 8946,2008,3,4,Tree height in Brazil's 'arc of deforestation': Shorter trees in south and southwest Amazonia imply lower biomass,This paper estimates the difference in stand biomass due to shorter and lighter trees in southwest (SW) and southern Amazonia (SA) compared to trees in dense forests in central Amazonia (CA). Forest biomass values used to estimate carbon emissions from deforestation throughout| Brazilian Amazonia will be affected by any differences between CA forests and those in the "arc of deforestation" where clearing activity is concentrated along the southern edge of the Amazon forest. At 12 sites (in the Brazilian states of Amazonas| Acre| Mato Grosso and Para) 763 trees were felled and measurements were made of total height and of stem diameter. In CA dense forest| trees are taller at any given diameter than those in SW bamboo-dominated open| SW bamboo-free dense forest and SA open forests. Compared to CA| the three forest types in the arc of deforestation occur on more fertile soils| experience a longer dry season and/or are disturbed by climbing bamboos that cause frequent crown damage. Observed relationships between diameter and height were consistent with the argument that allometric scaling exponents vary in forests on different substrates or with different levels of natural disturbance. Using biomass equations based only on diameter| the reductions in stand biomass due to shorter tree height alone were 11.0| 6.2 and 3.6%| respectively| in the three forest types in the arc of deforestation. A prior study had shown these forest types to have less dense wood than CA dense forest. When tree height and wood density effects were considered jointly| total downward corrections to estimates of stand biomass were 39| 22 and 16%| respectively. Downward corrections to biomass in these forests were 76 Mg ha(-1) (similar to 21.5 Mg ha(-1) from the height effect alone)| 65 Mg ha(-1) (18.5 Mg ha(-1) from height)| and 45 Mg. ha(-1) (10.3 Mg ha(-1) from height). Hence| biomass stock and carbon emissions are overestimated when allometric relationships from dense forest are applied to SW or SA forest types. Biomass and emissions estimates in Brazil's National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change require downward corrections for both wood density and tree height. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8703,2008,4,4,Tree-ring-based reconstruction of the April to September mean temperature since 1826 AD for north-central Shaanxi Province| China,Long-time series of high-resolution temperature record from Chinese Loess Plateau is rare. An April-September mean temperature reconstruction (1826-2004) has been developed for the north-central Shaanxi Province| China| based on tree-ring width analysis. The reconstruction captures 39.3% (p < 0.001) of the variance in the instrumental data over the calibration period from 1951 to 2002. The reconstruction shows a high temperature period of 1928-1933| which coincides with the timing of the extreme drought event in 1920s in the entire northern China. The two low temperature periods in reconstruction are 1883-1888 and 1938-1942. With the global warming| the April-September mean temperature in study area has also increased since the 1970s| but has not exceeded the temperature in 1928-1933. Besides the statistical analysis| the reconstruction is also verified by the local dryness/wetness index and other dendroclimatological results. 8402,2008,4,4,Trends and interdecadal changes of weather predictability during 1950s-1990s,To study the atmospheric predictability from the view of nonlinear error growth dynamics| a new approach using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) is introduced by the authors recently. In this paper| the trends and interdecadal changes of weather predictability limit (WPL) during 1950s-1990s are investigated by employing the NLLE approach. The results show that there exist significant trend changes for WPL over most of the globe. At three different pressure levels in the troposphere (850| 500| and 200 hPa)| spatial distribution patterns of linear trend coefficients of WPL are similar. Significant decreasing trends in WPL could be found in the most regions of the northern midlatitudes and Africa| while significant increasing trends in WPL lie in the most regions of the tropical Pacific and southern mid-high latitudes. In the lower stratosphere (50 hPa)| the WPL in the whole tropics all shows significant increasing trends| while it displays significant decreasing trends in the most regions of the Antarctic and northern mid-high latitudes. By examining the temporal variations of WPL in detail| we find that the interdecadal changes of WPL in most regions at different levels mainly happen in the 1970s| which is consistent with the significant climate shift occurring in the late 1970s. Trends and interdecadal changes of WPL are found to be well related to those of atmospheric persistence| which in turn are linked to the changes of atmospheric internal dynamics. Further analysis indicates that the changes of atmospheric static stability due to global warming might be one of main causes responsible for the trends and interdecadal changes of atmospheric persistence and predictability in the southern and northern mid-high latitudes. The increased sea surface temperature (SST) variability exerts a stronger external forcing on the tropical Pacific atmosphere that tends to enhance the persistence of tropical Pacific atmosphere. This process appears to be responsible for the increase of atmospheric predictability and persistence in the tropical Pacific since the late 1970s. 8756,2008,2,2,Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes| based on a more than 100-year time series of 10 min rainfall intensities at Uccle| Belgium,Investigation was made on whether the recent historical changes in frequency and amplitude of rainfall extremes can be considered statistically significant under the hypothesis of no trend or temporal clustering of rainfall extremes. The analysis was based on a 107-year time series of 10-min Peaks-Over-Threshold rainfall data obtained from the Uccle station in Belgium. Rainfall intensities were aggregated at levels ranging from 10 min to the monthly scale| and defined for different seasons and block lengths between 5 and 15 years using sliding windows. Perturbations in rainfall extremes were derived| which represent the empirical quantile changes. Significant deviations in rainfall quantiles were found| which persisted for periods of 10 to 15 years. In the winter and summer seasons| high extremes were clustered in the 1910s-1920s| the 1960s and recently in the 1990s. This temporal clustering highlights the difficulty of attributing ``change'' in climate series to anthropogenically induced global warming. Research in a variety of climate phenomena is essential for the attribution of changes in the climate. 8791,2008,4,2,Trends in atmospheric elemental carbon concentrations from 1835 to 2005,Elemental carbon (EC) aerosols absorb solar radiation which results in heating of the atmosphere. Recent increases in the atmospheric burden of EC may account for similar to 10 to 15% of global warming. Long-term EC data| however| are sparse. We report here our measurements of annual mean atmospheric EC concentration| [EC](atm)| from filter samples collected daily from 1978 to 2005 at Whiteface Mountain| NY using the thermal optical method. The [EC](atm) for 1978-1986| 1987-1996| and 1997-2005 were| 550| 225| and 62 ng m(-3)| respectively. We also collected similar to 55 cm long sediment cores from West Pine Pond near Whiteface Mountain. The cores were sliced and their (210)Pb ages determined. The first (top) five slices each represented sediment deposition over 7 years and the remaining 13 years each. EC was chemically separated from the sediment samples from four cores| and its concentration in each slice was determined using the thermal optical method. The [EC] sed followed closely that of [EC](atm) from 1978 to 2005. Assuming wet and dry deposition as the only source| we can show that [EC](sed) = K[EC](atm)| where K ( m(3) g(-1)) is a constant for a given lake. From [EC](atm)| and [EC](sed) for the 1978-2005 period| K was determined to be 10|400 +/- 4|400 m 3 g(-1). With this value used for K and [EC](sed)| the [EC](atm) values were determined from 1835 to 1978. The [EC](atm) from 1835-1862 was similar to 30 ng m(-3)| which may be close to the preindustrial background level. The [EC](atm) was 65 ng m(-3) for the 1863-1875 period| then increased sharply| reaching a maximum value| 760 ng m(-3)| from 1917-1930. From 1931-1943 through 1978-1984| the concentration decreased gradually| from 680 to 560 ng m(-3). The concentrations for 1985-1991| 1992-1998| and 1999-2005 were 295| 195| and 60 ng m(-3)| respectively. Model calculations for BC emissions from fossil fuel combustion for the US by Novakov et al. (2003) qualitatively reproduce the trend determined experimentally in this work. 8495,2008,2,4,Trends in prevalence of allergic rhinitis and correlation with pollen counts in Switzerland,In recent decades| a large number of epidemiological studies investigating the change of prevalence of hay fever showed an increase in the occurrence of this disease. However| other studies carried out in the 1990s yielded contradictory results. Many environmental factors have been hypothesized to contribute to the increasing hay fever rate| including both indoor and ambient air pollution| reduced exposure to microbial stimulation and changes in diets. However| the observed increase has not convincingly been explained by any of these factors and there is limited evidence of changes in exposure to these risk factors over time. Additionally| recent studies show that no further increase in asthma| hay fever and atopic sensitisation in adolescents and adults has been observed during the 1990s and the beginning of the new century. As the pattern of pollen counts has changed over the years| partly due to the global warming but also as a consequence of a change in the use of land| the changing prevalence of hay fever might partly be driven by this different pollen exposure. Epidemiological data for hay fever in Switzerland are available from 1926 until 2000 (with large gaps between 1926 and 1958 and 1958 to 1986) whereas pollen data are available from 1969 until the present. This allows an investigation as to whether these data are correlated provided the same time spans are compared. It would also be feasible to correlate the pollen data with meteorological data which| however| is not the subject of our investigation. Our study focuses on analyzing time series of pollen counts and of pollen season lengths in order to identify their trends| and to ascertain whether there is a relationship between these trends and the changes in the hay fever prevalence. It is shown in this paper that the pollen exposure has been decreasing in Basel since the beginning of the 1990s whereas the rate of the hay fever prevalence in Switzerland remained approximately unchanged in this period but with a slight tendency to decrease. In Locarno| most of the pollen species also show a decreasing trend| while in Zurich| the development is somewhat different as the pollen counts of most of the pollen types have been increasing. It is interesting| however| that some of the pollen counts of this station (grass| stinging nettle| mugwort and ragweed) have been decreasing in the period 1982-2007. 8499,2008,2,4,Tropical Malaria Does Not Mean Hot Environments,If global warming become more serious| with increasing development rates of the vector mosquito and malaria parasites. However| the correlation coefficients between the monthly malaria cases and the monthly mean of daily maximum temperature were negative| showing that the number of malaria cases in tropical areas of Africa decreases during the season when temperature was higher than normal. Moreover| an analysis of temperature and development rate using a thermodynamic model showed that the estimated intrinsic optimum temperatures for the development of the malaria parasites| Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax| in the adult mosquito stage and that of the vector mosquito Anopheles gambiae s.s. were all approximate to 23-24 degrees C. Here| the intrinsic optimum temperature is defined ill the thermodynamic model as the temperature at which it is assumed that there are no or negligible adverse effects for development. Therefore| this study indicates that the development of malaria parasites ill their mosquito hosts and the development of their vector mosquitoes are. inhibited at temperatures higher than 23-24 degrees C. If global warming progresses further| the present center of malarial endemicity in sub-Saharan Africa will move to an area with all optimum temperature for both the vector and the parasite| migrating to avoid the hot environment. 8771,2008,2,4,Turnover of low molecular weight dissolved organic C (DOC) and microbial C exhibit different temperature sensitivities in Arctic tundra soils,Polar ecosystems are currently experiencing some of the fastest rates of climate warming. An increase in soil temperature in High Arctic regions may stimulate soil permafrost melting and microbial activity| thereby accelerating losses of greenhouse gases. It is therefore important to understand the factors regulating the rates of C turnover in polar soils. Consequently| our aims were to: (1) assess the concentration of low molecular weight (MW) dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in soil| (2) to investigate the temperature-dependent turnover of specific low MW compounds| and (3) to analyse the influence of substrate concentration on C cycling. Microbial mineralisation of labile low MW DOC in two High Arctic tundra soils was investigated using soil solutions spiked with either (14)C-labelled glucose or amino acids. Spiked solutions were added to the top- and sub-soil from two ecosystem types (lichen and Carex dominated tundra)| maintained at three temperatures (4-20 degrees C)| and their microbial mineralisation kinetics monitored. (14)CO(2) evolution from the tundra soils in response to (14)C-glucose and -amino acid addition could best be described by a double first order exponential kinetic equation with rate constants k(1) and k(2). Both forms of DOC had a short half-life (t(1/2)) in the pool of microbial respiratory substrate (t(1/2) = 1.07 +/- 0.10 h for glucose and 1.63 +/- 0.14 h for amino acids; exponential coefficient k(1) = 0.93 +/- 0.07 and 0.64 +/- 0.06 h(-1) respectively) whilst the second phase of mineralisation| assumed to be C that had entered the microbial biomass| was much slower (average k(2) = 1.30 x 10(-3) +/- 0.49 x 10(-4) h(-1)). Temperature had little effect on the rate of mineralisation of (14)C used directly as respiratory substrate. In contrast| the turnover rate of the (14)C immobilized in the microbial biomass prior to mineralisation was temperature sensitive (k(2) values of 0.99 x 10(-3) h(-1) and 1.66 x 10(-3) h(-1) at 4 and 20 degrees C respectively). Concentration-dependent glucose and amino acid miner lisation kinetics of glucose and amino acids (0-10 mM) were best described using Michaelis-Menten kinetics; there was a low affinity for both C substrates by the microbial community (K(m) = 4.07 +/- 0.41 mM| V(max) = 0.027 +/- 0.005 mmol kg(-1) h(-1)). In conclusion| our results suggest that in these C limiting environments the flux of labile| low MW DOC through the soil solution is extremely rapid and relatively insensitive to temperature. In contrast| the turnover of C incorporated into higher molecular weight microbial C pools appears to show greater temperature sensitivity. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8951,2008,2,4,Twentieth-century trends in the thermal growing season in the Greater Baltic Area,Phenological data have shown an increase of ca. 10 days in European growing season length in the latter part of the twentieth century. In general| these changes have been associated with global warming. Here we present a study of thermal growing season (GS) trends in the Greater Baltic Area| northern Europe. Yearly dates for the start| end and length of the GS were computed for 49 stations in the studied area| using daily mean temperature measurements. Trends and tendencies of the GS parameters were analysed within the twentieth century. We also examined GS trends in long records (starting before 1850) from the region. The results show a general increase of the length of the GS of ca one week since 1951 in the area| where the most considerable change has occurred in spring (starting similar to 6 days earlier). The largest increases were found at stations adjacent to the Baltic Sea and North Sea| where some Danish stations showed significant increasing trends in the length of the GS of more than 20 days. The only tendency for a shorter GS was found in Archangelsk| north western Russia. The three longest records displayed large inter-annual and decadal variability| with tendencies for increased frequencies of longer growing seasons since the 1950s. 8816,2008,3,2,Uncertainty and learning: implications for the trade-off between short-lived and long-lived greenhouse gases,The economic benefits of a multi-gas approach to climate change mitigation are clear. However| there is still a debate on how to make the trade-off between different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The trade-off debate has mainly centered on the use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs)| governing the trade-off under the Kyoto Protocol| with results showing that the cost-effective valuation of short-lived GHGs| like methane (CH4)| should be lower than its current GWP value if the ultimate aim is to stabilize the anthropogenic temperature change. However| contrary to this| there have also been proposals that early mitigation mainly should be targeted on short-lived GHGs. In this paper we analyze the cost-effective trade-off between a short-lived GHG| CH4| and a long-lived GHG| carbon dioxide (CO2)| when a temperature target is to be met| taking into consideration the current uncertainty of the climate sensitivity as well as the likelihood that this will be reduced in the future. The analysis is carried out using an integrated climate and economic model (MiMiC) and the results from this model are explored and explained using a simplified analytical economic model. The main finding is that the introduction of uncertainty and learning about the climate sensitivity increases the near-term cost-effective valuation of CH4 relative to CO2. The larger the uncertainty span| the higher the valuation of the short-lived gas. For an uncertainty span of +/- 1 degrees C around an expected climate sensitivity of 3 degrees C| CH4 is cost-effectively valued 6.8 times as high as CO2 in year 2005. This is almost twice as high as the valuation in a deterministic case| but still significantly lower than its GWP(100) value. 1343,2008,4,4,Understanding hygroscopic growth and phase transformation of aerosols using single particle Raman spectroscopy in an electrodynamic balance,Hygroscopic growth is one of the most fundamental properties of atmospheric aerosols. By absorbing or evaporating water| an aerosol particle changes its size| morphology| phase| chemical composition and reactivity and other parameters such as its refractive index. These changes affect the fate and the environmental impacts of atmospheric aerosols| including global climate change. The ElectroDynamic Balance ( EDB) has been widely accepted as a unique tool for measuring hygroscopic properties and for investigating phase transformation of aerosols via single particle levitation. Coupled with Raman spectroscopy| an EDB/ Raman system is a powerful tool that can be used to investigate both physical and chemical changes associated with the hygroscopic properties of individually levitated particles under controlled environments. In this paper| we report the use of an EDB/ Raman system to investigate ( 1) contact ion pairs formation in supersaturated magnesium sulfate solutions; ( 2) phase transformation in ammonium nitrate/ ammonium sulfate mixed particles; ( 3) hygroscopicity of organically coated inorganic aerosols; and ( 4) heterogeneous reactions altering the hygroscopicity of organic aerosols. 1246,2008,2,4,Upper thermal thresholds of shallow vs. deep populations of the precious Mediterranean red coral Corallium rubrum (L.): Assessing the potential effects of warming in the NW Mediterranean,Recent mortality outbreaks ill marine ecosystems have been linked to elevated seawater temperatures associated with global climate change. Acquisition of thermotolerance data is essential| not only to determine the role of temperature in mortality outbreaks| but also to predict consequences of global warming. In the NW Mediterranean region| elevated seawater temperatures during the summer periods of 1999 and 2003 caused mass mortality of the Mediterranean red coral| Corallium rubum (L. 1758). Experiments testing the upper thermal limits of this species were carried out in aquaria using samples collected from populations front I I to 40 m depth in the Marseilles region (NW Mediterranean| France). Samples were subjected to temperature treatments between 18 and 30 degrees C with an exposure time of 5 and 25 days. Three biological response variables were used to evaluate effects of the treatments: coenenchyme necrosis| polyp activity and calcification rates (Ca-45 incorporation ill calcareous skeleton). The results showed that exposure to 24 degrees C for 24 days caused a beginning of mortality only for the deep population| and to 25 degrees C for between 9 and 14 days caused mass mortality of both sample groups. The response variable results indicate that samples from the shallow population had greater thermotolerance of elevated seawater temperatures than the deep samples. The shallow samples showed greater polyp activity and higher calcification rate with a delayed necrosis response than the deep samples. These initial thermotolerance results combined with both hydrographic models and seawater temperature monitoring are the first step towards developing predictive tools for anticipating future effects of climate change in the red coral populations. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. 9122,2008,4,2,Use of cost-effective construction technologies in India to mitigate climate change,Concentration of greenhouse gases play major role in raising the earth's temperature. Carbon dioxide| produced from burning of fossil fuels| is the principle greenhouse gas and efforts are being made at international level to reduce its emission through adoption of energy-efficient technologies. The UN Conference on Environment and Development| 1992 made a significant development in this field by initiating the discussion on sustainable development under the Agenda 21. Cost-effective construction technologies can bring down the embodied energy level associated with production of building materials by lowering use of energy-consuming materials. This embodied energy is a crucial factor for sustainable construction practices and effective reduction of the same would contribute in mitigating global warming. The cost-effective construction technologies would emerge as the most acceptable case of sustainable technologies in India both in terms of cost and environment. 8527,2008,3,4,Use of Manure| Compost| and Cover Crops to Supplant Crop Residue Carbon in Corn Stover Removed Cropping Systems,The emerging cellulosic-based ethanol industry will likely use corn (Zea mays L.) stover as a feedstock source. Growers wishing to maintain| or increase soil C levels for agronomic and environmental benefit will need to use C amendments such as manure| Compost| or cover crops| to replace C removed with the corn stover. The objective of this research was to determine the effect of cover crops| manure| and compost on short-term C sequestration rates and net global warming potential (GWP) in a corn-soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation with complete corn stover removal. Field experiments consisting of a corn-soybean-corn rotation with whole-plant corn harvest| were conducted near East Lansing| MI over a 3-yr period beginning in the fall of 2001. Carbon amendments were: compost| manure| and a winter cereal rye (Secale cereale L.) cover crop. Compost and manure amendments raised soil C levels in the 0 to 5 and 0 to 25 cm soil profile but not in the 5 to 25 cm soil profile over the relatively short-term duration of the study. Total soil organic C (SOC) (kg ha(-1)) in the 0 to 25 cm profile increased by 41 and 25% for the compost and manure treatments| respectively| and decreased by 3% for the untreated check. Compost and manure soil amendments resulted in a net GWP of -1811 and -1060 g CO(2) m(-2) yr(-1)| respectively| compared to 12 g CO(2) m(-2) yr(-1) for untreated. 8983,2008,3,3,Use of multi-transition-metal-ion-exchanged zeolite 13X catalysts in methane emissions abatement,Methane is a potent greenhouse gas. It has a global warming potential (GWP) 23 times greater than carbon dioxide. Reducing methane emissions would lead to Substantial economic and environmental benefits. This study investigated the performance of multi-transition-metal-(Cu| Cr| Ni| and Co)-ion-exchanged zeolite 13X catalysts in methane emissions abatement. The catalytic activity in methane combustion using multi-ion-exchanged catalysts was studied with different parameters including the molar percentage of metal loading| the space velocity| and the inlet methane concentration under atmospheric pressure and at a relatively low reaction temperature of 500 degrees C. The performance of the catalysts was determined in terms of the apparent activation energy| the number of active sites of the catalyst| and the BET Surface area of the catalyst. This study showed that multi-ion-exchanged catalysts outperformed single-ion-exchanged and acidified 13X catalysts and that lengthening the residence time led to a higher methane conversion percentage. The enhanced catalytic activity in the multi-ion-exchanged catalysts was attributed to the presence of exchanged transition ions instead of acid sites in the catalyst. The catalytic activity of the catalysts was influenced by the metal loading amount| which played an important role in affecting the apparent activation energy for methane combustion| the active sites| and the BET surface area of the catalyst. Increasing the amount of metal loading in the catalyst decreased the apparent activation energy for methane combustion and also the BET Surface area of the catalyst. An optimized metal loading amount at which the highest catalytic activity was observed due to the combined effects of the various factors was determined. (C) 2008 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1141,2008,4,4,Use of vegetation properties from EOS observations for land-climate modeling in East Africa,Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global climate change. Information on land surface biophysical properties and climatic variables based on in situ data fail to resolve the fine-scale variability that exists in many parts of the world| including East Africa. In this study| we used the NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) products to improve the representation of the land surface in a regional climate model as well as assess the model performance. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data of leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation fractional cover (VFC) were directly incorporated in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System ( RAMS). The model was validated in terms of the land surface temperature (LST)| utilizing the MODIS LST data from both Terra and Aqua satellites. Compared with the built-in land surface| the ingested MODIS LAI and VFC greatly improved the spatial and temporal dynamics of vegetation in East Africa. Three experiments were carried out for the year of 2003 to test the impacts of land surface conditions. The results showed that the spatial| seasonal| and diurnal characteristics of the RAMS simulated LST were improved because of MODIS LAI and VFC. Specifically| the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)-related migration| bimodal temporal variation| and monthly averaged diurnal cycles of LST were more realistically reproduced. The need to realistically represent the spatial and temporal distribution of vegetation is thus highlighted| and the value of the EOS observations for the land-climate modeling is demonstrated. 8829,2008,4,3,Using a radiative-convective model to estimate the temperature potential of greenhouse gases,A comprehensive approach is proposed to the construction of an equilibrium global warming potential with the use of a radiative-convective model of climate and the line-by-line calculations of the characteristics of radiative transfer in the atmosphere on the basis of analysis and comparison of different methods of estimating emission metrics. The studies conducted in the past decade have demonstrated that a widely used method of calculating the global warming potential for methane and other trace greenhouse gases is applicable only to relatively small time horizons (within 100 years). The proposed equilibrium global warming potential makes it possible to consider a set of equilibrium states of the Earth's climate system under variations in the contents of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and to estimate the parameters of the system's response to such variations for arbitrary time intervals. Analysis of a set of different equilibrium states makes it possible to assess a relative contribution of different anthropogenic pollutants to radiation balance and| hence| to a change in the Earth's climatic regime. 1212,2008,2,4,Using rainout shelters to evaluate climate change effects on the demography of Cryptantha flava,1. Precipitation in arid regions is temporally variable with much of it arriving in discrete| unpredictable pulses. Climate change models predict an increase in the variation of precipitation| with longer droughts and larger rainfall events| in addition to increased temperatures. 2. A life table response experiment (LTRE) was conducted with the herbaceous arid-land perennial Cryptantha flava (Boraginaceae) from 1997 to 2000| in order to determine how variation in precipitation affects asymptotic population growth (lambda) and vital rates. Variation in precipitation took two forms| through rainout shelters erected just before and during the 1999 spring growing season| and through naturally occurring variation over the 4 years. 3. An unexpected effect of rainout shelters on l was observed that could not be attributed to drought. The lambda value decreased greatly in control census plots in the 1998-99 transition but did not decrease in sheltered of plots. The 1999 spring| when shelters were in place| was unusually cold| resulting in frost damage to unsheltered plants. Plants under shelters experienced elevated nighttime temperatures and escaped frost damage. The greater value of lambda in the sheltered plots is attributable almost entirely to greater contributions of survival| growth and stasis. 4. There were residual effects of the 1999 drought treatment in the 1999-2000 transition as lambda decreased in the sheltered populations while l increased in control populations. Compared to controls| there were large negative effects of survival| growth| and stasis and a large positive effect of retrogression in the droughted plots. 5. Natural variation in fecundity contributed considerably to inter-annual variation in lambda in control plots. Annual variation in fecundity strongly paralleled annual variation in seedling establishment. The relative contributions of other vital rates varied greatly among the annual transitions. 6. Synthesis. The study illustrates the sensitivity of this arid-land species to early season frost events and to variation in precipitation. It suggests the importance of considering the seasonal timing of precipitation events when projecting the population-level consequences of global climate change| with particular attention given to precipitation that triggers germination and seedling establishment. Researchers using shelters to create drought treatments should consider their nighttime warming effects. 8855,2008,3,4,Utilization of woody biomass in Singapore: technological options for carbonization and economic comparison with incineration,Background| aim and scope The interest in the use of biomass as a renewable energy resource has rapidly grown over the past few years. In Singapore| biomass resources are mostly from waste wood. This article presents a few technological options| namely carbonization| for the conversion of woody biomass into a solid fuel| charcoal. Materials and methods In the first stage| a life cycle assessment (LCA) 'gate-to-gate' system was developed for a conventional carbonizer system| a modern carbonizer from Japan| and a proposed four-stage partial furnace carbonizer from Tunisia. The potential environmental impacts were generated for global warming potential| acidification| human toxicity and photochemical oxidant potential. Based on the first set of results| the second LCA investigation was carried out comparing the selected carbonizer from Japan and an existing incinerator in Singapore. The second LCA adopted a unique approach combining social costs of pollution with the economic factors of the two biomass conversion technologies. Results The carbonizer from Japan resulted in approximately 85% less greenhouse gases than the conventional carbonization system and 54% less than the proposed four-stage carbonizer from Tunisia. In terms of acidification and human toxicity| the carbonizers from Japan and Tunisia display nearly similar results-both were considerably lower than the conventional carbonizer. For photochemical oxidant potential| very minimal emissions are generated from the four-stage carbonizer and nearly zero impact is realized for the carbonization technology from Japan. Discussion From the first set of LCA results| the Japanese carbonizer is favored in terms of its environmental results. The highest environmental impacts from the conventional carbonizer were due to large and uncontrolled emissions of acidic gases| greenhouse gases (particularly CO(2) and CH(4))| particulates| and non-methane volatile organic compounds from both fugitive sources and energy requirements. The second LCA addressed the performance of the carbonizer from Japan against an existing incinerator in terms of environmental as well as cost performances. This unique approach translated pollution emissions into monetary costs to highlight the impacts of social health. Conclusions For the first LCA| the accumulated impacts from the Japanese carbonizer proved to display significantly lower environmental impacts| especially for global warming potential. The overall environmental performance of the four-stage carbonizer from Tunisia ranked slightly lower than the one from Japan and much higher than the conventional carbonizer. The second LCA results displayed a noteworthy improvement of 90% for human health from the modern Japanese carbonizer technology-when compared against conventional incinerators. Without considering health issues or social costs| the total value per ton of wood treated is nearly similar for both incinerator and carbonizer. Recommendations and perspectives The interest in biomass as raw material for producing energy has emerged rapidly in many countries. However| careful analysis and comparison of technologies are necessary to ensure favorable environmental outcomes. A full life cycle study| along with costs and the impact of pollution on society| should be performed before any large-scale biomass conversion technology is implemented. LCA can be applied to quantify and verify the overall environmental performance of a particular technology of interest as well as further explore the proposed technology in terms of costs and social implications. 9120,2008,2,4,Variability of the low-level cross-equatorial jet of the western Indian Ocean since 1660 as derived from coral proxies,Using monthly-seasonally resolved coral proxies from the Indian Ocean basin| we statistically reconstruct the June-July-August (JJA) low-level jet in western Indian Ocean from 1660-1957 with skillful estimates for high-and low-frequencies. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are reasonably captured. The strength of the jet significantly increases from the late 17th century to late 19th century. The decreasing in reconstructed jet in 20th century disagrees with previous studies which indicated an enhancement of Southern Asian summer monsoon (SASM) in association with the rapid global warming. The jet reconstructions are useful for understanding of SASM variability and the validation of historical monsoon simulation. 1049,2008,2,4,Variable evolutionary response to regional climate change in a polymorphic species,The evolutionary response to regional and global climate change may vary in widespread polymorphic species| so predicting future genetic responses will require careful tracking of genetic variability in local populations. We surveyed chromosomal inversion polymorphisms in 25 populations of Drosophila robusta| many of which have been sampled repeatedly starting in the 1940s| 50s| and 60s up until 2007| across its range in the USA. Frequencies of some northerly| or cold-adapted| gene arrangements have declined in the face of increasing temperatures| whereas frequencies of several southern| or warm-adapted| gene arrangements were positively correlated with increasing temperature changes. Over a finer geographic scale| populations from the west-central part of the species range from the Ozark Plateau| Ouachita mountains| and eastern Oklahoma showed genetic differentiation between south-central Ozark and western Ozark/Ouachita regions that has persisted in the face of recent shifts in gene arrangement frequencies. Overall| populations of D. robusta exhibited dynamic genetic changes over time| with some populations shifting chromosome frequencies in just 10-15 years. Some temporal genetic shifts were widespread and significantly correlated with temperature increases| but regions of the genome marked by different gene arrangements have responded in different sections of the species range. In some parts of the species range| chromosome frequencies shifted but were not associated with changing temperatures| showed little or no temporal change| or temporal shifts stopped for temperature sensitive gene arrangements near fixation. (C) 2008 The Linnean Society of London| Biological Journal of the Linnean Society| 2008| 95| 702-718. 1075,2008,2,4,Variation in Heat-shock Proteins and Photosynthetic Thermotolerance among Natural Populations of Chenopodium album L. from Contrasting Thermal Environments: Implications for Plant Responses to Global Warming,Production of heat-shock proteins (Hsps) is a key adaptation to acute heat stress and will be important in determining plant responses to climate change. Further| intraspecifc variation in Hsps| which will influence species-level response to global warming| has rarely been examined in naturally occurring plants. To understand intraspecific variation in plant Hsps and its relevance to global warming| we examined Hsp content and thermotolerance in five naturally occurring populations of Chenopodium album L. from contrasting thermal environments grown at low and high temperatures. As expected| Hsp accumulation varied between populations| but this was related more to habitat variability than to mean temperature. Unexpectedly| Hsp accumulation decreased with increasing variability of habitat temperatures. Hsp accumulation also decreased with increased experimental growth temperatures. Physiological thermotolerance was partitioned into basal and induced components. As with Hsps| induced thermotolerance decreased with increasing temperature variability. Thus| populations native to the more stressful habitats| or grown at higher temperatures| had lower Hsp levels and induced thermotolerance| suggesting a greater reliance on basal mechanisms for thermotolerance. These results suggest that future global climate change will differentially impact ecotypes within species| possibly by selecting for increased basal versus inducible thermotolerance. 9094,2008,2,4,Variations and trends of the freezing and thawing index along the Qinghai-Xizang Railway for 1966-2004,Annual freezing and thawing index of 7 meteorological stations along the Qinghai-Xizang Railway were calculated based on daily maximum and minimum temperature records for 1966-2004. Trends of annual freezing and thawing index were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and a simple linear regression method. The results show that: 1) The mean annual freezing indices range from 95 to 2300 degrees C.d and the mean annual thawing indices range from 630 to 3250 degrees C.d. The mean annual freezing index of the 7 stations exhibited decreasing trends with decreasing rate of -16.6- -59.1 degrees C center dot d/10a. The mean annual thawing index of these 7 stations showed increasing trends with the related decreasing rate is 19.83-45.6 degrees C center dot d/10a. 2) The MK trend test indicated the significant decreasing trends (significant at < 0.05 significant level) in the annual freezing index for most stations except for Golmud. The significant increasing trends can be observed in the annual thawing index for 4 stations except Golmud and Tuotuohe. Golmud was the only station with no trends in both annual freezing and annual thawing index. 9079,2008,5,4,Vegetation and fire history of a Chinese site in southern tropical Xishuangbanna derived from phytolith and charcoal records from Holocene sediments,Aim The aims of this paper are to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history over the past 2000 years in a well-preserved rain-forest area| to understand interactions between climate| fire| and vegetation| and to predict how rain forest responds to global warming and increased intensity of human activity. Location Xishuangbanna| south-west China| 21-22 degrees N| 101-102 degrees E. Methods Phytolith (plant opal silica bodies) morphotypes| assemblages| and indices were used to reconstruct palaeovegetation and palaeoclimate changes in detail. Micro-charcoal particles found in phytolith slides| together with burnt phytoliths and highly weathered bulliform cells| were employed to reconstruct a record of past fire occurrence. A survey of field sediments| lithology| and C-14 dating were also employed. Results Phytoliths were divided into 11 groups and classified into 33 well-described morphotypes according to their shape under light microscopy and their presumed anatomical origins and ecological significance. The phytolith assemblages were divided into six significant zones that reveal a complete history of vegetation changes corresponding to climate variation and fire occurrence. Phytolith assemblages and indices show that the palaeoclimate in the study area is characterized by the alternation of warm-wet and cool-dry conditions. Phytolith and charcoal records reveal that 12 fire episodes occurred. Comparison of burnt phytoliths with an aridity index (Iph) shows that fire episodes have a strong relationship with drought events. Main conclusions Our results indicate that fire occurrence in the tropical rain forest of Xishuangbanna is predominantly under the control of natural climate variability (drought events). Nearly every fire episode is coupled with a climatic event and has triggered vegetation composition changes marked by a pronounced expansion of grasses. This indicates that drought interacts with fire to exert a strong influence on the ecological dynamics of the rain forest. However| the impact of human activity in recent centuries is also significant. Our results are important for understanding the interactions between climate| fire| and vegetation| and for predicting how rain forest responds to global warming and increased human activity. 8744,2008,3,3,Vehicle tracking in public transport domain and associated spatio-temporal query processing,Promotion of public transport usage and discouraging the use of cars and other private transports improves the environment (i.e. safety| exhaust emissions| noise) and contributes to reduce the problem of global warming. This paper suggests a new cost-effective idea to locate a vehicle in public transport domain and compares proposed technique to some of the methods advised previously to find the location of a vehicle. This paper further proposes a framework that is inspired by the thematic layers of a GIS (Geographic Information System). Proposed transportation GIS works as a visualization tool and helps to process spatio-temporal queries. Building such a system will first of all require a strategy to keep track of vehicles in specific public transport| a client interface| and a query processing system to handle spatial and temporal queries put up by the users of the transport system. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8416,2008,4,4,Vignettes on the evolution of applied entomology in Quebec| with emphasis on plant protection,The development of entomology as a natural science in Quebec first involved naturalist erudites such as William Couper| Leon Provancher and Henry Lyman| who abundantly observed and described the Quebec entomofauna| founded societies of professional entomologists| and wrote the first scientific documents about the insects of Quebec. At the turn of the 20th century| the economic importance of agricultural and forest products had reached a sufficient level for applied entomology to develop its own identity. This is evidenced by the birth of the Quebec Society for the Protection of Plants| the creation of the first higher education program in entomology| and the establishment of professional entomologist positions in the plant protection services of the federal and provincial governments. Entomologists abundantly published on the life cycle of insect pests| their damages| and early efficient insect pest control using what were then primitive and dangerous insecticides. Entomologists in chief James Fletcher| at the federal level| and Victor Huard| at the provincial level| as well as entomology professors William Lochhead of Macdonald College and Georges Maheux of the Ecole forestiere de l'Universite Laval| are important figures who initially guided the development of applied entomology in Quebec. For decades| Ernest-Melville DuPorte| while working at Macdonald College| was at the centre of higher education and fundamental research in entomology in Quebec. Following the Second World War| the demand for food products and wood fibre grew at an unprecedented rate| and so did the need to control insect pests| in the new era of synthetic chemicals such as the DDT insecticide. Entomologists active in agriculture were mainly regrouped around the Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu Research Station and at the MAPAQ's Service of Plant Protection| and at their experimental field stations. Research in forest entomology developed itself in Quebec City at the Laurentians federal laboratory and at the Faculte d'arpentage et de genie forestier (known today as the Faculte de foresterie| de geographie et de geomatique) de l'Universite Laval. Due to pressure from the forest industry| the spraying of Quebec forests with chemical insecticides expanded systematically and| for decades| was mainly determined by the cyclic abundance of the spruce budworm. At the end of the 1960s| applied entomology in Quebec slowly took an ecological turn| marked by environmental concerns about chemical insecticides| more attention given to natural control| and a renewed interest in biological control agents. Fundamental research on insects and higher education in entomology expanded in both established and newly created university centres. The recent decades were marked by the arrival of genetically modified crops that are highly resistant to target pests| and the imminent consequences of global warming on the abundance and diversity of insect pests. Entomology as a professional activity benefited from the arrival of many women in research centres and universities; however| there is now some concern about the noticeable decline in the recruitment of specialized entomologists in public services and universities| and an uncertain economic future.
1309,2008,3,4,Volatile organic compound emissions from urban trees in Shenyang| China,Biogenic emissions of the volatile organic compounds isoprene and monoterpene (BVOCs) contribute to tropospheric ozone and secondary particle formation and have indirect effects on global climate change. However| little research has focused on BVOC emissions from urban trees. In this study| the monoterpene emissions of Chinese Pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) have been measured by GC/MS. The emission rates of a-pinene| P-pinene| camphene and limonene reached their maximum 78.55| 0.67| 0.82 and 0.31 mu g g(-1) dw h(-1) (p < 0.05)| respectively| in August. For Delta 3-carene| the highest emission rate| about 0.51 mu g g(-1) dw h(-1)| was observed in June. The dominant monoterpene emitted was a-pinene. In August and September| this monoterpene accounted for more than 97% of the emissions. Correlation analyses revealed significant correlations among emission rates of alpha-pinene| beta-pinene| camphene| and limonene (p < 0.01). This may imply that the biosynthesis of alpha-pinene| beta-pinene| camphene| and limonene were controlled by some common metabolic routes. 9034,2008,2,4,Voltinism flexibility of a riverine dragonfly along thermal gradients,Potential effects of future warming should be reflected in life history patterns of aquatic organisms observed in warmer climates or in habitats that are different in ambient temperature. In the special case of the dragonfly Gomphus vulgatissimus (L.) (Odonata: Gomphidae) previous research suggests that voltinism decreases from south to north. We analysed data on voltinism from 11 sample sites along a latitudinal gradient from about 44 degrees N to 53 degrees N| comprising small streams to medium-sized rivers. Furthermore| to simulate different conditions and to allow projections for future climate change scenarios| we developed a population dynamic model based on a projection matrix approach. The parameters of the model are dependent on temperature and day length. Our field results indicate a decrease in voltinism along the latitudinal gradient from southern to northern Europe and a corresponding increase of voltinism with higher temperatures. An increase in voltinism with width of the running water implies an effect of varying habitat temperature. Under the impact of global warming| our model predicts an increased development speed| particularly in the northern part of the latitudinal gradient| an extension of the northern range limit and changes in phenology of G. vulgatissimus| leading to an extension of the flight season in certain regions along the gradient. 1252,2008,2,4,Vulnerability and adaptive capacity in forestry in northern Europe: a Swedish case study,Climate change is likely to present new and substantially unpredictable challenges to human societies. The prospect is of particular concern at the local and regional levels| since vulnerability and adaptive capacity are location-specific and many decisions regarding climate-induced risks are made at those levels. In this light| one is compelled to survey stakeholders' understandings of their situation and perceived problems. Assessments should also include the context of other ongoing changes| such as globalisation| that will impact communities and exacerbate their vulnerabilities. This paper presents an assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the forestry sector in the Pite River basin in northern Sweden. The study was carried out using a multi-method design encompassing literature surveys| interviews with stakeholders| and stakeholder meetings. The paper concludes that while climate change will have an impact on the region| its effect will be superseded by that of broader socio-economic changes. The results illustrate the need to understand local and regional perceptions of adaptation in formulating appropriate policy measures. 8954,2008,2,4,Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to global warming. Part I: model description and role of heat generated by organic matter decomposition,We constructed a new model to study the sensitivity of permafrost carbon stocks to future climate warming. The one-dimensional model solves an equation for diffusion of heat penetrating from the overlying atmosphere and takes into account additional in situ heat production by active soil microorganisms. Decomposition of frozen soil organic matter and produced CO(2) and methane fluxes result from an interplay of soil heat conduction and phase transitions| respiration| methanogenesis and methanotrophy processes. Respiration and methanotrophy consume soil oxygen and thus can only develop in an aerated top-soil column. In contrast| methanogenesis is not limited by oxygen and can be sustained within the deep soil| releasing sufficient heat to further thaw in depth the frozen carbon-rich soil organic matter. Heat production that accompanies decomposition and methanotrophy can be an essential process providing positive feedback to atmospheric warming through self-sustaining transformation of initially frozen soil carbon into CO(2) and CH(4). This supplementary heat becomes crucial| however| only under certain climate conditions. Oxygen limitation to soil respiration slows down the process| so that the mean flux of carbon released during the phase of intense decomposition is more than two times less than without oxygen limitation. Taking into account methanogenesis increases the mean carbon flux by 20%. Part II of this study deals with mobilization of frozen carbon stock in transient climate change scenarios with more elaborated methane module| which makes it possible to consider more general cases with various site configurations. Part I (this manuscript) studies mobilization of 400 GtC carbon stock of the Yedoma in response to a stepwise rapid warming focusing on the role of supplementary heat that is released to the soil during decomposition of organic matter. 8955,2008,2,3,Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to global warming. Part II: sensitivity of permafrost carbon stock to global warming,In the companion paper (Part I)| we presented a model of permafrost carbon cycle to study the sensitivity of frozen carbon stocks to future climate warming. The mobilization of deep carbon stock of the frozen Pleistocene soil in the case of rapid stepwise increase of atmospheric temperature was considered. In this work| we adapted the model to be used also for floodplain tundra sites and to account for the processes in the soil active layer. The new processes taken into account are litter input and decomposition| plant-mediated transport of methane| and leaching of exudates from plant roots. The SRES-A2 transient climate warming scenario of the IPSL CM4 climate model is used to study the carbon fluxes from the carbon-rich Pleistocene soil with seasonal active-layer carbon cycling on top of it. For a point to the southwest from the western branch of Yedoma Ice Complex| where the climate warming is strong enough to trigger self-sustainable decomposition processes| about 256 kgC m(-2)| or 70% of the initial soil carbon stock under present-day climate conditions| are emitted to the atmosphere in about 120 yr| including 20 kgC m(-2) released as methane. The total average flux of CO(2) and methane emissions to the atmosphere during this time is of 2.1 kgC m(-2) yr(-1). Within the Yedoma| whose most part of the territory remains relatively cold| the emissions are much smaller: 0.2 kgC m(-2) yr(-1) between 2050 and 2100 for Yakutsk area. In a test case with saturated upper-soil meter| when the runoff is insufficient to evacuate the meltwater| 0.05 kgCH(4) m(-2) yr(-1) on average are emitted as methane during 250 yr starting from 2050. The latter can translate to the upper bound of 1 GtC yr(-1) in CO(2) equivalent from the 1 million km(2) area of the Yedoma. 8413,2008,2,2,Waking the dead: the value of population genetic analyses of historical samples,Archived scales and otoliths constitute a unique source of DNA that potentially enables extension of the temporal scale of genetic studies of fish populations by decades and even centuries. We review recent insights into fish population and conservation genetics obtained using analysis of DNA from archived samples. This involves both new knowledge about demographic parameters and population structure in wild populations and insights into consequences of anthropogenic pressure resulting from over-harvesting| habitat degradation and stocking. We show that the latter category of studies have led to significant changes of management practices. Ongoing improvement of genetic methods will undoubtedly further expand the ability to utilize historical DNA samples. We envisage that temporal comparisons of large numbers of coding genes will lead to novel insights into selective responses of fish populations to anthropogenic challenges| particularly fisheries-induced selection and global warming. However| both acquisition and storage of historical DNA samples can be hurdles to temporal genetic analyses| while degradation and low copy number in historical DNA samples render genetic data from such sources prone to technical artefacts. We summarize recommendations for storage of samples and DNA extraction and provide checklists for validation of genotyping results. Finally| we stress that validation procedures also involve documentation of the time and population of origin of historical samples| and the inferences drawn should account for the technical and statistical uncertainties associated with historical DNA analysis. 8517,2008,5,4,Warm-water mollusc assemblages from northern Chile (Mejillones Peninsula): new evidence for permanent El Nino-like conditions during Pliocene warmth?,Although results have been controversial| understanding the tropical Pacific climatic state during the Pliocene warm interval (c. 4.5-3.0 Ma) is crucial if insight is to be gained into the dynamic processes of present and future global warming. In the multi-proxy effort to reconstruct ancient climates| a critical role can be played by palaeoclimatic evidence provided by the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature-sensitive marine molluscs. Shallow-water strata of the Mejillones Peninsula| northern Chile (23 degrees S)| contain dense faunal assemblages in which molluscs exclusive to| or characteristic of| Pliocene deposits (Chlamys simpsoni| Chlamys vidali| Chorus blainvillei| Concholepas nodosa| Fusinus remondi| Herminespina mirabilis) coexist with surprisingly abundant and varied populations of extant warm-water species (Bulla punctulata| Cerithium stercusmuscarum| Olivella sp.. Turbo cf. fluctuosus| Anomia peruviana| Argopecten ventricosus| Donax peruvianus| Dosinia ponderosa| Mexicardia procera| Undulostera megodon)| most of which have their current southern zoogeographical limit at 6 degrees S. These tropical elements are reliable indicator of nearshore marine conditions and their abundant occurrence implies that sea surface temperatures (SST) along the northern Chile coast were at least 2 degrees C warmer in the mid-Pliocene than at present| and that these very different conditions lasted long enough to allow stable colonization of the area. Such a significantly warmer SST pattern strongly resembles general climatic conditions accompanying modern El Nino events| when warm tropical waters propagate southward along the western margin of South America; this supports the existence in this area of persistently El Nino-like conditions during the mid-Pliocene. 8789,2008,2,4,Warming and elevated CO(2) affect the relationship between seed mass| germinability and seedling growth in Austrodanthonia caespitosa| a dominant Australian grass,While the influence of elevated CO(2) on the production| mass and quality of plant seeds has been well studied| the effect of warming on these characters is largely unknown; and there is practically no information on possible interactions between warming and elevated CO(2)| despite the importance of these characters in population maintenance and recovery. Here| we present the impacts of elevated CO(2) and warming| both in isolation and combination| on seed production| mass| quality| germination success and subsequent seedling growth of Austrodanthonia caespitosa| a dominant temperate C(3) grass from Australia| using seeds collected from the TasFACE experiment. Mean seed production and mass were not significantly affected by either elevated CO(2) or warming| but elevated CO(2) more than doubled the proportion of very light| inviable seeds (P < 0.05) and halved mean seed N concentration (P < 0.04) and N content (P < 0.03). The dependence of seed germination success on seed mass was affected by an elevated CO(2) x warming interaction (P < 0.004)| such that maternal exposure to elevated CO(2) or warming reduced germination if applied in isolation| but not when applied in combination. Maternal effects were retained when seedlings were grown in a common environment for 6 weeks| with seedlings descended from warmed plants 20% smaller (P < 0.008) with a higher root : shoot ratio (P < 0.001) than those from unwarmed plants. Given that both elevated CO(2) and warming reduced seed mass| quality| germinability or seedling growth| it is likely that global change will reduce population growth or distribution of this dominant species. 8862,2008,2,4,Warming changes plant competitive hierarchy in a temperate steppe in northern China,Aims Quantifying changes in plant growth and interspecific interactions| both of which can alter dominance of plant species| will facilitate explanation and projection of the shifts in species composition and community structure in terrestrial biomes expected under global warming. We used an experimental warming treatment to examine the potential influence of global warming on plant growth and inter-specific interactions in a temperate steppe in northern China. Materials and methods Six dominant plant species were grown in monoculture and all 15 two-species mixtures for one growing season under ambient and elevated temperatures in the field. Temperature was manipulated with infrared radiators. Important findings Total biomass of all the six plant species was increased by 34-63% in monocultures and 20-76% in mixtures. The magnitude of the warming effect on biomass was modified by plant interactions. Experimental warming changed the hierarchies of both competitive response and competitive effect. The competitive ability (in terms of response and effect) on one C(4) grass (Pennisetum contrasiaticum) was suppressed| while the competitive abilities of one C(4) forb (Artemisia capillaris) and one C(3) grass (Stipa krylovii) were enhanced by experimental warming. The demonstrated alterations in growth and plant interactions may lead to changes in community structure and biodiversity in the temperate steppe in a warmer world in the future. 8698,2008,2,4,Warming in systems with a discrete spectrum: Spectral diffusion of two-dimensional electrons in a magnetic field,Warming in complex physical systems| in particular global warming| attracts significant contemporary interest. It is essential| therefore| to understand basic physical mechanisms leading to overheating. It is well known that application of an electric field to conductors heats electric charge carriers. Often an elevated electron temperature describes the result of the heating. This paper demonstrates that an electric field applied to a conductor with discrete electron spectrum produces a nonequilibrium electron distribution| which cannot be described by temperature. Such electron distribution changes dramatically the conductivity of highly mobile two-dimensional electrons in a magnetic field| forcing them into a state with a zero differential resistance. Most importantly the results demonstrate that| in general| the effective overheating in the systems with discrete spectrum is significantly stronger than the one in systems with continuous and homogeneous distribution of the energy levels at the same input power. 8618,2008,2,4,Warming| plant phenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores,Temporal advancement of resource availability by warming in seasonal environments can reduce reproductive success of vertebrates if their own reproductive phenology does not also advance with warming. Indirect evidence from large-scale analyses suggests| however| that migratory vertebrates might compensate for this by tracking phenological variation across landscapes. Results from our two-year warming experiment combined with seven years of observations of plant phenology and offspring production by caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Greenland| however| contradict evidence from large-scale analyses. At spatial scales relevant to the foraging horizon of individual herbivores| spatial variability in plant phenology was reduced-not increased-by both experimental and observed warming. Concurrently| offspring production by female caribou declined with reductions in spatial variability in plant phenology. By highlighting the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch| these results reveal heretofore unexpected adverse consequences of climatic warming for herbivore population ecology. 8977,2008,3,4,Waste management modeling with PC-based model - EASEWASTE,As lite-cycle-thinking becomes more integrated into waste management| quantitative tools are needed for assessing waste management systems and technologies. This article presents a decision support model to deal with integrated solid waste management planning problems at a regional or national level. The model is called EASEWASTE (environmental assessment of solid waste systems and technologies). The model consists of a number of modules (submodels)| each describing a process in a real waste management system| and these modules may combine to represent a complete waste management system in a scenario. EASEWASTE generates data on emissions (inventory)| which are translated and aggregated into different environmental impact categories| e.g. the global warming| acidification| and toxicity. To facilitate a "first level" screening evaluation| default values for process parameters have been provided| wherever possible. The EASEWASTE model for life-cycle-assessment of waste management is described and applied to a case study for illustrative purposes. The case study involving hypothetical but realistic data demonstrates the functionality| usability| and flexibilities of the model. The design and implementation of the software successfully address the substantial challenges in integrating process modeling| life-cycle inventory (M)| and impact assessment (LCIA) modeling| and optimization into an interactive decision support platform. (c) 2008 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog| 27: 133-142| 2008. 9012,2008,3,2,Water and sustainability: A reappraisal,Water is essential for life of plants| animals| humans| and human civilization. The rapidly growing human population is causing energy crisis| ozone depletion| global warming| and scarcity of cropland and this is also leading to water scarcity| water pollution| and water-related land fertility degradation. Incoming rainwater generates two types of water resources| green water and blue water. Four actions| population stabilization| seriously intended pollution abatement| water-based balancing of green and blue water requirements for social and environmental purposes| and preparedness for mega-scale food trade expansion from water-rich to water-short countries-will form the building blocks to a responsible approach to sustainability. 8464,2008,2,4,Water temperature and concomitant waterborne ethinylestradiol exposure affects the vitellogenin expression in juvenile brown trout (Salmo trutta),Environmental estrogens have the potential to considerably affect the reproduction and development of aquatic vertebrates by interfering with the endocrine system. In addition to the potential risk of environmental estrogens| increasing water temperatures as a result of global warming have become a serious problem in many rivers and streams. To assess the degree of estrogenic exposure| the analysis of the estrogen-dependent protein vitellogenin (Vtg) is a frequently used biomarker in field studies. Little| however| is known regarding the potential interaction between ambient water temperature and the Vtg production induced by waterborne environmental estrogens. In order to test the influence of temperature on Vtg synthesis| we exposed juvenile brown trout to an environmentally relevant concentration of ethinylestradiol (EE(2)) and held them either at low or high temperatures (12 and 19 degrees C| respectively)| but also at temperature cycles of 12-19 degrees C in order to simulate the field situation. The EE(2) exposure caused a 7-74-fold increase of hepatic Vtg mRNA. The synthesis of Vtg mRNA was clearly stimulated in fish held at higher water temperatures (12-19 degrees C and 19 degrees C| respectively). On the protein level| Vtg showed a similar pattern; the higher the temperature| the higher the concentration of Vtg in the plasma. The experiment further revealed a temperature-dependent increasing amount of hepatic estrogen receptor alpha mRNA (ER alpha) after exposure to waterborne EE(2). The gene expression of estrogen receptor beta-1 (ER beta-1) and the glucocorticoid receptor (GR) in the liver of EE(2) exposed fish| however| showed no treatment-related alterations. In line with observed constant bile cortisol concentrations| our data do not indicate corresponding stress related effects on hepatic Vtg production. The present survey| however| clearly demonstrates that increased temperature significantly elevates the estrogen-induced expression of Vtg and therefore has to be considered when interpreting environmental monitoring studies. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1272,2008,2,4,Water temperature and upstream migration of glass eels in New Zealand: implications of climate change,Glass eels migrating upstream in a New Zealand river showed a clear preference for water temperatures between 12 and 20 degrees C| with an optimum of 16.5 degrees C. Water temperatures < 12 degrees C and > 22 degrees C almost completely inhibited migration| which implies that warmer temperatures associated with global climate change might have a detrimental impact on glass eel recruitment in their current ranges. We established this by trapping glass eels of shortfin| Anguilla australis| and longfin| A. dieffenbachii| eels nightly from September to November. Eels caught in 2001 (50|287) outnumbered those caught in 2002 (19|954); shortfin glass eels dominated catches in both years| comprising 91-93% of the catch. Longfins were larger than shortfins| and size and pigmentation in both species increased as the seasons progressed. Temperatures within the migratory season in 2001 showed -14-day intervals between maxima that appeared to be associated with the new and full moons. 9230,2008,2,4,Water-mediated responses of ecosystem carbon fluxes to climatic change in a temperate steppe,Global warming and a changing precipitation regime could have a profound impact on ecosystem carbon fluxes| especially in arid and semiarid grasslands where water is limited. A field experiment manipulating temperature and precipitation has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China since 2005. A paired| nested experimental design was used| with increased precipitation as the primary factor and warming simulated by infrared radiators as the secondary factor. The results for the first 2 yr showed that gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) was higher than ecosystem respiration| leading to net C sink (measured by net ecosystem CO2 exchange| NEE) over the growing season in the study site. The interannual variation of NEE resulted from the difference in mean annual precipitation. Experimental warming reduced GEP and NEE| whereas increased precipitation stimulated ecosystem C and water fluxes in both years. Increased precipitation also alleviated the negative effect of experimental warming on NEE. The results demonstrate that water availability plays a dominant role in regulating ecosystem C and water fluxes and their responses to climatic change in the temperate steppe of northern China. 1353,2008,4,4,Wave propagation across sea-ice thickness changes,Williams and Squire (Williams| T.D.| Squire| V.A.| in press. The effect of submergence on wave scattering across a transition between two floating flexible plates. Wave Motion) present a mathematical theory that property incorporates freeboard and draft| i.e. submergence| in a description of how ocean surface waves propagate across an abrupt change of properties in a continuous sea-ice cover. Typically the abrupt feature is an ice floe of different thickness from the surrounding plate| a trapped iceberg| a pressure ridge| or an open or refrozen lead. Here| we investigate how the assimilation of this floe submergence into theory alters the transmission of the wave trains| allowing the approximation and consequent limitations inherent in the majority of previous models that apply the under-ice boundary conditions at the mean open water surface to be assessed. This is done for isolated features and| using the wide-spacing approximation| for heterogeneous ice sheets made up of many such irregularities drawn from appropriate probability density distributions. It is found that the contribution associated with the underwater draft of ice floes is modest and can invariably be neglected| aside from at short periods and in heavily deformed sea-ice. While its amassed effect across the many irregular features that habitually characterize sea-ice will be significant| it is offset because of the tendency of ice covers to discourage the passage of short wavelengths preferentially by creating a background wave spectrum composed only of long period wave energy in the ice interior. More general geophysical implications are discussed| particularly in relation to global climate change and the value of ice-covered regions as a proxy for observing a warmer Earth. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 8856,2008,3,4,Wax production from renewable feedstock using biocatalysts instead of fossil feedstock and conventional methods,Background| aim| and scope Using renewable feedstock and introducing biocatalysts in the chemical industry have been suggested as the key strategies to reduce the environmental impact of chemicals. The Swedish interdisciplinary research program "Speciality Chemicals from Renewable Resources-Greenchem" is aiming to develop these strategies. One target group of chemicals for Greenchem are wax esters which can be used in wood coatings to replace paraffin wax made from fossil crude oil. The aim of this study was to conduct a life cycle assessment of wax esters based on rapeseed oil produced by biocatalysts (enzymes). The scope was to compare the environmental performance of wax esters with paraffin wax produced by conventional methods. Materials and methods The study has a cradle-to-gate perspective and the functional unit is "1-kg wax product ready to use in a wood coating product." Extensive data collection and calculations have been performed for the wax esters| whereas existing life cycle inventory data have been used for the paraffin wax. Results The energy input into the wax ester production is about one third of the energy input in paraffin wax production. However| the wax ester has a higher contribution to the global warming potential (GWP) due to high emissions of nitrous oxide from rapeseed cultivation. Referring to a cradle-to-grave perspective| including waste incineration| the contribution to the GWP will| however| be 3.5 times higher from paraffin wax. Wax ester makes a higher contribution to the acidification and eutrophication potential| due to emissions from soil from rapeseed cultivation| but five times lower contribution to the photochemical ozone creation potential. From a land-use perspective and a global warming point of view| it is more efficient to produce paraffin wax and grow high-yielding| short-rotation coppice (Salix) to replace fuel oil than it is to grow rapeseed for wax ester production. Discussion Overall| this study shows the importance of studying the environmental performance of a product not only from a gate-to-gate perspective but| instead| considering the environmental performance from cradle-to-gate. The biocatalytic production of the wax ester consumes less energy than the conventional chemical method| but the raw material step| cultivation of rapeseed contributes much to both acidification and eutrophication. When the waste treatment step is included| the contribution to GWP| however| for paraffin wax will be 3.5 times higher than for the wax ester. Conclusions From a gate-to-gate perspective| replacing conventional chemical processes by biocatalysts using enzymes leads to energy savings and reduces emissions. However| from a cradle-to-gate perspective| the use of renewable feedstock| such as rapeseed oil| may counteract some of these benefits. Concerning the GWP benefit from using renewable feedstock instead of fossil feedstock| the final waste treatment step must be included| thereby applying a cradle-to-grave perspective. Recommendations and perspectives The introduction of biocatalysts as a key strategy in reducing the environmental impact from the chemical industry is supported by the results in this study. On the other hand| it is not obvious that the key strategy of using renewable feedstock in chemical production per se leads to benefits concerning all environmental impact categories. Thus| much more attention needs to be paid to the choice of potential renewable feedstock options| the minimization of energy inputs| and the biological emissions from the soil in the cultivation of feedstock crops| improved gas cleaning in nitrogen fertilizer production plants| and the alternative use of the arable land| in optimizing the overall environmental benefits of an increased use of renewable feedstock in the chemical industry. 9275,2008,2,4,What affects the nitrogen retention in Tatra Mountains lakes' catchments in Poland?,The study of acidification and recovery of two lakes situated in the Polish Tatra Mountains| exposed to similar deposition of acidic substances but differing in altitude| catchment morphology| hydrology| and biodiversity is presented. Measurements were performed in 1992-1996 and 2001-2005. Simultaneously| research on the atmospheric deposition was carried out. The following physical and chemical parameters in lake water and precipitation were measured: pH| conductivity (K-25)| Ca2+| Mg2+| Na+| K+| NH4+| SO42-| NO3-| Cl- and alkalinity. Distinct changes in the chemical composition of precipitation were observed over 14 years (1992-2005). During this time the sulphate concentration decreased significantly| and the concentration of hydrogen ions in precipitation decreased at an average rate of 2.23 meq/m(3)/yr. There was no significant change in nitrate| ammonium or total nitrogen deposition. The chemical composition of water of both lakes changed significantly and showed signs of chemical recovery with decreases in sulphate concentration and increases in acid neutralising capacity. The concentration of base cations declined. Despite the lack of clear trends in nitrogen deposition| a statistically significant drop in concentration was observed in the two lakes. A significant increase of about 15% in the retention of nitrogen compounds in both catchments occurred. An improvement in nitrogen saturation status in both catchments was observed. This probably resulted mainly from decreasing acidification and global warming which prolongs the vegetative period| changes plant species composition and increases the microbiological activity of soil. 8995,2008,2,4,What has changed the proportion of intense hurricanes in the last 30 years?,The recently reported increase in the proportion of intense hurricanes is considerably larger than those projected by the maximum potential intensity (MPI) theory and the results of numerical simulation. To reconcile this discrepancy| the authors examined the best-track datasets for the North Atlantic (NA)| western North Pacific (WNP)| and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins. It was found that the changes in the tropical cyclone formation locations and prevailing tracks may have contributed to the changes in the proportion of the intense hurricanes over the past 30 yr. The authors suggest that the changes in the formation locations and prevailing tracks have a profound impact on the basinwide tropical cyclone intensity. Thus| how the atmospheric circulation in the tropical cyclone basins responds to the global warming may be a critical factor in understanding the impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity. 8690,2008,2,4,What is hot in tree rings? The wood density of surviving Douglas-firs to the 2003 drought and heat wave,In a global warming scenario| drought and heat waves like the one that occurred in 2003 in Europe are expected to become more intense and frequent. This extreme climate event strongly affected the hydraulic balance in many forest tree species including Douglas-fir| with symptoms ranging from partial crown necrosis to death. We studied a French Douglas-fir provenance trial| strongly affected by the 2003 drought and heat wave. Using wood X-ray microdensity profiles as a record of cambium response to environmental variations| we compared mean stem density and growth between dead and alive neighbouring trees and several microdensity characters measured over 17 growth rings previous to 2003. Special attention has been given to the sampling layout in order to minimize the micro-environmental effects. At tree level| surviving trees have a significantly higher mean stem density. At tree ring level| they have a significantly higher mean ring density| maximum ring density| latewood density and| to a lesser extent| latewood proportion. No significant difference was found for diameter growth. These results could have direct implications in the way to study and predict possible acclimation and adaptation of forest trees to climate change process. Wood could be used for the selection of genotypes with a desirable plasticity and resistance to drought induced-cavitation. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8436,2008,2,4,What shapes the altitudinal range of a high mountain Mediterranean plant? Recruitment probabilities from ovule to seedling stage,Recruitment is a complex process consisting of sequential stages affected by biotic interactions and abiotic factors. Assessment of these sequential stages and corresponding subprocesses may be useful in identifying the most critical stages. Accordingly| to assess the factors that may determine the altitudinal range limits of the high mountain Mediterranean plant Silene ciliata| a set of demographic stages| from flower production to establishment of 2-yr-old plants| and their influence on recruitment probability were examined using a step-by-step approach. We integrated florivory| pollination and pre-dispersal seed predation as pre-dispersal factors| and seedling emergence and survival as post-dispersal determinants of recruitment. Three populations were monitored at the southernmost margin of the species along its local altitudinal range. Previous studies suggest that seediness is strongly limited by summer drought especially at the lower boundary of the species| a situation that may worsen under current global warming. Our results showed that recruitment was mainly limited by low seed production in the pre-dispersal stage and low seedling emergence and survival in the post-dispersal stage| probably due to environmental harshness in summer. By contrast| biotic factors responsible for propagule loss| such as flower and fruit predation| had a minor effect on the probability of plant recruitment. Although the relative importance of transition probabilities was similar among populations along the altitudinal range| comparatively lower flower production significantly reduced the number of recruited plants at the lowest altitude population. This demographic bottleneck| together with increased competition with other species favoured by climate warming| might collapse population growth and limit persistence at the lower altitudinal range of the species| raising its low local altitudinal edge. 8991,2008,2,4,When will Lake Mead go dry?,A water budget analysis shows that under current conditions there is a 10% chance that live storage in Lakes Mead and Powell will be gone by about 2013 and a 50% chance that it will be gone by 2021 if no changes in water allocation from the Colorado River system are made. This startling result is driven by climate change associated with global warming| the effects of natural climate variability| and the current operating status of the reservoir system. Minimum power pool levels in both Lake Mead and Lake Powell will be reached under current conditions by 2017 with 50% probability. While these dates are subject to some uncertainty| they all point to a major and immediate water supply problem on the Colorado system. The solutions to this water shortage problem must be time-dependent to match the time-varying| human-induced decreases in future river flow. 8779,2008,4,3,Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation,Estimates of climate change impacts are often characterized by large uncertainties that reflect ignorance of many physical| biological| and socio-economic processes| and which hamper efforts to anticipate and adapt to climate change. A key to reducing these uncertainties is improved understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors. We evaluated uncertainties for projections of climate change impacts on crop production for 94 crop-region combinations that account for the bulk of calories consumed by malnourished populations. Specifically| we focused on the relative contributions of four factors: climate model projections of future temperature and precipitation| and the sensitivities of crops to temperature and precipitation changes. Surprisingly| uncertainties related to temperature represented a greater contribution to climate change impact uncertainty than those related to precipitation for most crops and regions| and in particular the sensitivity of crop yields to temperature was a critical source of uncertainty. These findings occurred despite rainfall's important contribution to year-to-year variability in crop yields and large disagreements among global climate models over the direction of future regional rainfall changes| and reflect the large magnitude of future warming relative to historical variability. We conclude that progress in understanding crop responses to temperature and the magnitude of regional temperature changes are two of the most important needs for climate change impact assessments and adaptation efforts for agriculture. 8604,2008,2,2,Why do dust storms decrease in northern China concurrently with the recent global warming?,Recent studies have shown that the spring dust storm frequency (DSF) in northern China exhibits an obvious downward trend over the past 50 years concurrently with the recent global warming. We found that the decline of DSF is significantly correlated with the increase of the surface air temperature (SAT) in the region of 70 degrees E -130 degrees E| 45 degrees N -65 degrees N around Lake Baikal| where anthropogenic forcing induces prominent warming in the recent decades. Corresponding to the SAT rise in this region| an anomalous dipole circulation pattern is found in the troposphere that consists of a warm anti-cyclone centered at 55 degrees N and a cold cyclone centered around 30 degrees N. The DSF is positively correlated to the activity of Mongolian cyclones. The warming trend around Lake Baikal possibly induces a weakening of the westerly jet stream and the atmospheric baroclinicity in northern China and Mongolian regions| which suppress the frequency of occurrence and the intensity of the Mongolian cyclones and result in the decreasing DSF in North China. This mechanism will likely further reduce the spring DSF in the future global warming scenario. 1148,2008,3,4,Why food prices increase & what can be done,Humankind is once again in a bind| which is the inescapable challenge of producing sufficient food for the continually increasing population under an increasingly difficult production environment - including global warming/global climate change| the continuing oil-based agriculture in an era of diminishing supply (the end of cheap oil)| which in turn has propelled biofuel production. Plus| the increasing affluence of fast-growing economies leading to the consumption of more oil energy and more food| particularly| meat or animal products| has altogether increased the demand for food. This is aggravated further by the decreasing capacity of the agro-ecosystem to meet the current production requirements| which has precipitated a phenomenal increase in world food prices. Claimed to be the prime mover of world economic growth| the current trade regime of globalization has brought about interconnected adverse effects not only on the environment but also on energy use (by increased food miles) and food insecurity especially in the poorer countries. Heavily subsidized agricultural products of developed countries exported to developing countries| like the Philippines| have made them more vulnerable to the volatile food prices in the world market It has exposed the hollowness of the economic view 'Why produce? It is cheaper to import!' I argue that the food crisis is real. What can be done? The positive thinkers will simply claim| 'If there is a problem| there is a solution!' It is grossly unintelligent for the youth to just simply accept that nothing can be done. Specifically for the Philippines| in this paper| options for sustainable food security| both at the production and consumption sides| are presented. 1109,2008,3,3,Why NH(3) is not a candidate reagent for ambient CO(2) fixation: A response to "Alternative solution to global warming arising from CO(2) emissions - Partial neutralization of tropospheric H(2)CO(3) with NH(3)",It has been proposed that application of area| or ammonium sulfate (plus lime) to nonagricultural land to evolve ammonia may provide a "solution" to increasing CO(2) concentrations by neutralizing atmospheric carbonic acid to ammonium bicarbonate at ambient concentrations and subsequent storage in the surface ocean (Apak [2007]. Environmental Progress 26| 355-359). We identify a series of major flaws in this hypothesis| which indicate that The approach is unfeasible and would not succeed if attempted at any scale.| (i) The phenomenal energy cost associated with breaking the N N bond and evolving H(2) for NH(3) production (and associated fossil fuel CO(2) emissions under the current energy generation market); 00 the radiative forcing associated with substantially increasing the concentration of ammonia in the atmosphere| and (in) a number of unwanted indirect effects| including eutrophication| enhanced N(2)O emissions| and the inhibition of the oxidation of strong greenhouse gases such as methane in the atmosphere. We strongly urge future efforts to be directed away from this approach and suggest that engagement with the climate| earth-system| and biogeochemistry communities is essential when putting forward ideas for potential geoengineering approaches to mitigate global climate change. (C) 2008 American Institute of Chemical Engineers. 1348,2008,2,4,Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate,Some of the earliest unequivocal signs of climate change have been the warming of the air and ocean| thawing of land and melting of ice in the Arctic. But recent studies are showing that the tropics are also changing. Several lines of evidence show that over the past few decades the tropical belt has expanded. This expansion has potentially important implications for subtropical societies and may lead to profound changes in the global climate system. Most importantly| poleward movement of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems| such as jet streams and storm tracks| could result in shifts in precipitation patterns affecting natural ecosystems| agriculture| and water resources. The implications of the expansion for stratospheric circulation and the distribution of ozone in the atmosphere are as yet poorly understood. The observed recent rate of expansion is greater than climate model projections of expansion over the twenty-first century| which suggests that there is still much to be learned about this aspect of global climate change. 1093,2008,2,4,Widespread occurrence of the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in the southeastern USA,From 1999 to 2006| we sampled >1200 amphibians for the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) at 30 sites in the southeastern USA. Using histological techniques or PCR assays| we detected chytrid infection in 10 species of aquatic-breeding amphibians in 6 states. The prevalence of chytrid infection was 17.8% for samples of postmetamorphic amphibians examined using skin swab-PCR assays (n = 202 samples from 12 species at 4 sites). In this subset of samples| anurans had a much higher prevalence of infection than caudates (39.2% vs. 5.5%| respectively). Mean prevalence in ranid frogs was 40.7%. The only infected salamanders were Notophthalmus viridescens at 3 sites. We found infected amphibians from late winter through late spring and in I autumn sample. Although we encountered moribund or dead amphibians at 9 sites| most mortality events were not attributed to Bd. Chytridiomycosis was established as the probable cause of illness or death in fewer than 10 individuals. Our observations suggest a pattern of widespread and subclinical infections. However| because most of the sites in our study were visited only once| we cannot dismiss the possibility that chytridiomycosis is adversely affecting some populations. Furthermore| although there is no evidence of chytrid-associated declines in our region| the presence of this pathogen is cause for concern given global climate change and other stressors. Although presence-absence surveys may still be needed for some taxa| such as bufonids| we recommend that future researchers focus on potential population-level effects at sites where Bd is now known to occur. 8731,2008,2,3,Will climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America? Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models,Climate change may dramatically affect the distribution and abundance of organisms. With the world's population size expected to increase significantly during the next 100 years| we need to know how climate change might impact our food production systems. In particular| we need estimates of how future climate might alter the distribution of agricultural pests. We used the climate projections from two general circulation models (GCMs) of global climate| the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre model (HadCM3)| for the A2 and B2 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in conjunction with a previously published bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) to predict the potential changes in distribution and abundance of the swede midge| Contarinia nasturtii| in North America. The BEM in conjunction with either GCM predicted that C. nasturtii would spread from its current initial invasion in southern Ontario and northwestern New York State into the Canadian prairies| northern Canada| and midwestern United States| but the magnitude of risk depended strongly on the GCM and the scenario used. When the CGCM2 projections were used| the BEM predicted an extensive shift in the location of the midges' climatic envelope through most of Ontario| Quebec| and the maritime and prairie provinces by the 2080s. In the United States| C. nasturtii was predicted to spread to all the Great Lake states| into midwestern states as far south as Colorado| and west into Washington State. When the HadCM3 was applied| southern Ontario| Saskatchewan| and Washington State were not as favourable for C. nasturtii by the 2080s. Indeed| when used with the HadCM3 climate projections| the BEM predicted the virtual disappearance of 'very favourable' regions for C. nasturtii. The CGCM2 projections generally caused the BEM to predict a small increase in the mean number of midge generations throughout the course of the century| whereas| the HadCM3 projections resulted in roughly the same mean number of generations but decreased variance. Predictions of the likely potential of C. nasturtii spatial spread are thus strongly dependent on the source of climate projections. This study illustrates the importance of using multiple GCMs in combination with multiple scenarios when studying the potential for spatial spread of an organism in response to climate change. 9178,2008,3,4,Will global warming reduce the carbon emissions of the Yorkshire Humber Region's domestic building stock - A scoping study,There is evidence from the International Panel of Climate Change that the UK will experience a mean rise in ambient air temperature over the coming years. Such a rise in temperature will change the requirements for heating and cooling of domestic buildings. This scoping paper explores this issue with respect to the housing sector in the Yorkshire Humber Region of the UK and comes to the conclusion that the regions domestic sector poses major problems with respect to the stated carbon savings required by the UK Government. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V. 8521,2008,2,4,Will increased storm disturbance affect the biodiversity of intertidal| nonscleractinian sessile fauna on coral reefs?,Relatively little is known about how the future effects of climatic change| including increases in sea level| temperature and storm severity and frequency| will impact on patterns of biodiversity on coral reefs| with the notable exception of recent work on corals and fish in tropical reef ecosystems. Sessile invertebrates such as ascidians| sponges and bryozoans occupying intertidal rubble habitats on coral reefs contribute significantly to the overall biodiversity and ecosystem function| but there is little or no information available on the likely impacts on these species from climate change. The existing strong physical gradients in these intertidal habitats will be exacerbated under predicted climatic change. By examining the distribution and abundance of nonscleractinian| sessile invertebrate assemblages exposed to different levels of wave action and at different heights on the shore around a coral reef| we show that coral reef intertidal biodiversity is particularly sensitive to physical disturbance. As physical disturbance regimes increase due to more intense storms and wave action associated with global warming| we can expect to see a corresponding decrease in the diversity of these cryptic sessile assemblages. This could impact negatively on the future health and productivity of coral reef ecosystems| given the ecosystem services these organisms provide. 8882,2008,2,4,Will present day glacier retreat increase volcanic activity? Stress induced by recent glacier retreat and its effect on magmatism at the Vatnajokull ice cap| Iceland,Global warming causes retreat of ice caps and ice sheets. Can melting glaciers trigger increased volcanic activity? Since 1890 the largest ice cap of Iceland| Vatnajokull| with an area of similar to 8000 km(2)| has been continuously retreating losing about 10% of its mass during last century. Present-day uplift around the ice cap is as high as 25 mm/yr. We evaluate interactions between ongoing glacio-isostasy and current changes to mantle melting and crustal stresses at volcanoes underneath Vatnajokull. The modeling indicates that a substantial volume of new magma| similar to 0.014 km(3)/yr| is produced under Vatnajokull in response to current ice thinning. Ice retreat also induces significant stress changes in the elastic crust that may contribute to high seismicity| unusual focal mechanisms| and unusual magma movements in NW-Vatnajokull. 8684,2008,2,4,Wood-mediated geomorphic effects mountains| of a jokulhlaup in the Wind River Mountains| Wyoming,A jokulhlaup burst from the head of Grasshopper Glacier in Wyoming's Wind River Mountains during early September 2003. Five reaches with distinct sedimentation patterns were delineated along the Dinwoody Creek drainage. This paper focuses on a portion of the jokulhlaup route where erosion of the forested banks created 16 large logjams spaced at longitudinal intervals of tens to hundreds of meters. Aggradation within the main channel upstream from each logjam created local sediment wedges| and the jams facilitated overbank deposition during the jokulhlaup. Field surveys during 2004 and 2006 documented logjam characteristics and associated erosional and depositional features| as well as initial modification of the logjams and flood deposits within the normal seasonal high-flow channel. Overbank deposits have not been altered by flows occurring since 2003. Field measurements Supported three hypotheses that (i) logjams present along the forested portions of the jokulhlaup route are larger and more closely spaced than those along adjacent| otherwise comparable stream channels that have not recently experienced a jokulhlaup; (ii) logjams are not randomly located along the jokulhlaup route| but instead reflect specific conditions of channel and valley geometry and flood hydraulics; and (iii) the presence of logjams facilitated significant erosional and depositional effects. This paper documents a sequence of events in which Outburst floodwaters enhance bank erosion and recruitment of wood into the channel| and thus the formation of large logjams. These logjams sufficiently deflect flow to create Substantial overbank deposition in areas of the valley bottom not commonly accessed by normal snowmelt peak discharges| and through this process promote valley-bottom aggradation and sediment storage. Changes in the occurrence of glacier outburst floods thus have the potential to alter the rate and magnitude of valley-bottorn dynamics in these environments| which is particularly relevant given predictions of worldwide global warming and glacial retreat. Processes observed at this field site likely occur in other forested catchments with headwater glaciers. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 8538,2008,2,4,World water tower: An atmospheric perspective,A large amount of water is stored in the world's highest and largest plateau| the Tibetan Plateau| in the forms of glaciers| snowpacks| lakes| and rivers. It is vital to understand where these waters come from and whether the supply to these water resources has been experiencing any changes during recent global warming. Here we show the maintenance of water content in the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau| the atmospheric circulations and transports of water vapor to this part of the world| and the trend of the water vapor supply. The Tibetan Plateau serves as a role of "the world water tower''| and its land-ocean-atmosphere interaction provides a profound impact on the global natural and climate environment. The analyses of a half-century time series of atmospheric water vapor| precipitation| and surface temperature indicate that the atmospheric supply to this water tower presents an increasing trend under recent global warming condition. Citation: Xu| X.| C. Lu| X. Shi| and S. Gao (2008)| World water tower: An atmospheric perspective| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 35| L20815| doi:10.1029/2008GL035867. 1301,2008,2,4,WORLDWIDE GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF BLACK SIGATOKA FOR BANANA: PREDICTIONS BASED ON CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS,Global climatic changes will potentially influence plant diseases and the efficacy of their management options. One of the most likely impacts of climate change will be felt by the geographical distribution of plant diseases. Black Sigatoka is considered the most damaging and costly disease of banana. The socio-economic impact of this disease has continued to increase as the pathogen reaches new areas and the disease becomes more difficult to be controled. The objectives of this research were to compare the global geographical distribution of the disease based on maps elaborated using weather data representing: i) current and future periods (2020| 2050 and 2080)| ii) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios A2 and B2| iii) predictions based on six different climate change models and the "multimodel ensemble" and| iv) individual months. The "multimodel ensemble" lead to a reduction in the variability of the simulations when compared to the results obtained using the individual models separately. The predictions suggested that| in the future| areas favorable for the development of the Black Sigatoka disease will decrease. This reduction will occur gradually and will be higher for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. Changes in the geographical distribution of the disease will occur from one month to another| with unfavorable areas becoming favorable and vice-versa. However| in spite of these changes| extensive areas will still continue to be favorable for the occurrence of Black Sigatoka. 9213,2008,2,4,Year aridity index patterns in northwest China and the relationship to summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature,Aim to linking the variability of drought in northwest China to the oceanic influence of North Atlantic SSTs at the background of global warming and at the regional climate change shifting stages| year aridity index variations in northwest China and summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variations are examined for the 44 a period of 1961-2004 using singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis. Results show that the SST anomalies (SSTA) in the North Atlantic in summer reflected three basic models. The first SVD mode of SST pattern shows a dipole-like variation with the positive center located at southwest and negative center at northeast of extratropical North Atlantic. And it strongly relates to the positive trend in Al variation in northwest China. The second coupled modes display the coherent positive anomalies in extratropical North Atlantic SST and the marked opposite trend of Al variability between north and south of Xinjiang. In addition| the lag correlation analysis of the first mode of SSTA and geopotential heights at 500 hPa variations also shows that the indication of the former influencing the latter configuration| which result in higher air temperature and less precipitation when the SSTA in the North Atlantic Ocean in summer motivate(] Eurasian circulation of EA pattern| further to influence the wet-dry variations in northwest China by the ocean-to-atmosphere forcing. 1051,2008,2,4,Yield and nutritive value of timothy as affected by temperature| photoperiod and time of harvest,Scenarios of global climate change forecast an increase in air temperature of 3 degrees C over the next 100 years in eastern Canada. Growth and nutritive value of cool-season grasses are known to be affected by air temperature. It is also believed that grasses grown at high latitude have a greater nutritive value. The objectives of this study were to assess the effect of four combinations of day/night temperature and photoperiod (15 h-17/5 degrees C; 15 h-22/10 degrees C; 15 h-28/15 degrees C; and 17 h-17/5 degrees C) on dry-matter (DM) yield| in vitro true DM digestibility (IVTD)| in vitro digestibility of neutral-detergent fibre (NDF)| and concentrations of NDF| acid-detergent fibre (ADF)| lignin| minerals and non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) in timothy grown under controlled conditions. Furthermore| herbage was harvested in the morning and in the afternoon to assess the impact of the time of harvest. The dietary cation-anion difference [DCAD = (K(+) + Na(+)) - (Cl(-) + 0.6 S(2-))] and the grass tetany index [GT index = K(+)/(Ca(2+) + Mg(2+))] were also calculated. Higher temperature regimes significantly decreased IVTD and digestibility of NDF but had a limited effect on concentrations of NDF| ADF and lignin. DM yield of herbage was less and the concentration of NSC was greater in timothy grown under a temperature regime of 28/15 degrees C than the 17/5 degrees C and 22/10 degrees C regimes; this effect is mainly explained by a response to temperature stress. Values of DCAD and the GT index of herbage were also lower under the 28/15 degrees C than the 17/5 degrees C and 22/10 degrees C regimes as a result of a decreased plant K concentration. Under the 17/5 degrees C regime| an increase in 2 h of photoperiod resulted in increased DM yield| decreased concentrations of K| Ca| Mg| Cl and N| and an increased starch concentration; IVTD or digestibility of NDF were not affected| although lignin concentration was reduced. Harvesting timothy in the afternoon rather than in the morning resulted in higher NSC| mainly sucrose| concentrations| and decreased ADF and NDF concentrations. The forecasted increase in air temperature in eastern Canada over the next 100 years will result in lower yields and nutritive value of timothy. 9008,2008,2,4,Zooplankton distribution in the western Arctic during summer 2002: Hydrographic habitats and implications for food chain dynamics,Global warming is presently a widely accepted phenomenon with a broad range of anticipated impacts on marine ecosystems. Alterations in temperature| circulation and ice cover in Arctic seas may result in changes in food chain dynamics| beginning with planktonic processes. As part of the Shelf-Basin Interactions (SBI) program| we conducted zooplankton surveys during summer 2002 to assess the biomass| distribution and abundance of copepods and other pelagic zooplankton over the Chukchi and Beaufort shelves| slope regions and the adjacent Canada Basin. The motivation for our fieldwork was the question| "Will global change| particularly warming| result in more large-sized zooplankton which support a pelagic food web of fish| birds| and certain mammals over the Chukchi and Beaufort shelves or in more smaller-sized zooplankton which will diminish the fish| birds and mammals and favor sedentary benthic organisms?" The objectives of the present study were 1) to census the regional zooplankton community and establish a baseline for comparisons with historical and future studies and 2) to determine whether large-bodied copepods associated with deep waters of the Bering Sea or the Canada Basin were transported to the shelves in sufficient numbers to modify the food web in a region where smaller copepods often dominate the zooplankton numerically. Spatial distributions of zooplankton communities were clearly associated with hydrographic habitats determined by the chemical| physical and biological characteristics of the upper water layer. Smaller taxa dominated the shelf communities while offshore zooplankton assemblages were characterized by large-bodied copepods. The mesozooplankton community was numerically dominated by copepod nauplii and small-bodied juveniles| including Pseudocalanus spp. and Oithona similis. We observed very few large-bodied copepods from the Bering Sea. However| much of the shelf region surveyed included relatively numerous Calanus glacialis juveniles and adults| suggesting that these copepods were advected onto the shelf and possibly reproducing there. Juvenile stages of the large-bodied copepod Calanus hyperboreus were found in relative abundance on the Chukchi shelf in the vicinity of Hanna Canyon. These observations suggest that large-bodied| deep-water species from the basin are advected onto the Chukchi Shelf where they may impact the fate of shelf-derived primary production and alter the food webs of the shelves. Regional comparisons of abundances of selected taxa enumerated in the present study with sample data from the early 1950s suggested that some taxa were more abundant in the SBI region in 2002 than ca. 50 years ago. Long-tern changes in planktonic populations are expected to have significant implications for shelf-basin exchange of biogenic material in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas and the adjacent Arctic Basin. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9009,2008,2,4,Zooplankton response to a warmer northern Wadden Sea,Weekly measurements of mesozooplankton (>76 mu m) and hydrographic parameters have been carried out since 1984 in the List Tidal Basin (northern Wadden Sea). Monthly water temperature significantly increased by 0.04 degrees C year. The largest increase by 3 degrees C in 22 years occurred in September| implying| an extension of the warm summer period. Mean annual copepod abundance and length of copepod season correlated significantly with mean temperature from January to May. Except for an increasing Acartia sp. abundance during spring (April-May)| no longterm trends in copepod abundance were observed. The percentage of carnivorous zooplankton increased significantly since 1984 mainly due to a sudden increase in the cyclopoid copepod Oithona similis in 1997. We expect that global warming will lead to a longer copepod season and higher copepod abundances in the northern Wadden Sea. 912,2009,4,4,"It's so different today": Climate change and indigenous lifeways in British Columbia| Canada,Indigenous Peoples of British Columbia have always had to accommodate and respond to environmental change. Oral histories| recollections of contemporary elders| and terms in indigenous languages all reflect peoples' responses to such change| especially since the coming of Europeans. Very recently| however| many people have noted signs of greater environmental change and challenges to their resilience than they have faced in the past: species declines and new appearances; anomalies in weather patterns; and declining health of forests and grasslands. These observations and perspectives are important to include in discussions and considerations of global climate change. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9510,2009,2,4,'No whale| no music': Inupiaq drumming and global warming,This article explores how climate change has recently influenced the Inupiaq Cultural identity as the people of the whales. Their traditional whaling cycle reveals strong indivisibility of music| emotions| and place based human identity. To illustrate such integrity of the Inupiat and their culturally critical bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus)| a search was made for specific ways in which climate change influences Inupiaq spiritual and physical ties with the whale in relation to traditional music making. Traditionally| the Inupiat say that it is the whale who brings them music| thus no whale harvest means no music production. However| when the environment is less predictable| the homeland eroded| place based songs gone| and human-whale integrity threatened| how specifically are these changes manifested in the Inupiat-whale relationship? Providing detailed descriptions of 2005-2006 nalukataq (midsummer whale feasts)| this article examines how contemporary Inupiat respond to environmental changes in the emotional and cultural dimensions through their music making. 9830,2009,2,2,'Sleepless in Hawaii' - does anthropogenic climate change enhance ecological and socioeconomic impacts of the alien invasive Eleutherodactylus coqui Thomas 1966 (Anura: Eleutherodactylidae)?,The alien invasive anuran Eleutherodactylus coqui is presently distributed in many Caribbean islands and Hawaiian Islands where it causes major ecological and socioeconomic problems| especially evident in the later. Here| I use a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling approach to model the native geographic distribution of this species and to project that model into other potentially threatened areas. The projection results under current climatic conditions suggested high probabilities of occurrence in tropical regions including the Caribbean| Florida| major parts of the Amazon basin and adjacent Andes| the Pantepui region| the Congo basin| and most Asian islands. Projections of potential distributions under future anthropogenic global warming scenarios within the Hawaiian Islands suggest an overall stable potential distribution| but fine scale patterns suggest a possible range allocation towards higher elevations which may affect natural reserves. If the predictive maps are interpreted as depicting invasiveness potential of E. coqui| strategies to prevent further invasion should focus on biosafety measurements within the areas highlighted. 9555,2009,2,2,'Tipping points' for the Amazon forest,The stability of the Amazon forest-climate equilibrium is being perturbed by a number of human drivers of change (e.g. deforestation| global warming| forest fires| higher CO(2) concentrations| and increased frequency of droughts and floods). Quantitative assessments for the maintenance of the tropical forest indicate that 'tipping points' may exist for total deforested area (>40%) and for global warming (Delta T > 3-4 degrees C). The likelihood of exceeding a tipping point can be greatly exacerbated by increases in forest fires and droughts| but quantification of those effects is still lacking. Forest resilience can be significantly increased if CO(2) 'fertilization' effect is proven to be taking place for tropical forests| but it can be offset by continued increases in temperature| rainfall seasonality| and forest fires. 870,2009,2,4,100-years of Australian bushfire property losses: Is the risk significant and is it increasing?,This study examines the bushfire (wildland fire) risk to the built environment in Australia. The most salient result is that the annual probability of building destruction has remained almost constant over the last century despite large demographic and social changes as well as improvements in fire fighting technique and resources. Most historical losses have taken place in a few extreme fires which if repeated are likely to overwhelm even the most professional of fire services. We also calculate the average annual probability of a random home on the urban-bushland interface being destroyed by a bushfire to be of the order of 1 in 6500| a factor 6.5 times lower than the ignition probability of a structural house fire. Thus on average and if this risk was perceived rationally| the incentive for individual homeowners to mitigate and reduce the bushfire danger even further is low. This being the case and despite predictions of an increasing likelihood of conditions favouring bushfires under global climate change| we suspect that building losses due to bushfires are unlikely to alter materially in the near future (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9544,2009,2,2,A 10-year decrease in plant species richness on a neotropical inselberg: detrimental effects of global warming?,The census of vascular plants across a 10-year interval (1995-2005) at the fringe of a neotropical rainforest (Nouragues inselberg| French Guiana| South America) revealed that species richness decreased| both at quadrat scale (2 m(2)) and at the scale of the inselberg (three transects| embracing the whole variation in community composition). Juvenile stages of all tree and shrub species were most severely affected| without any discrimination between life and growth forms| fruit and dispersion types| or seed sizes. Species turnover in time resulted in a net loss of biodiversity| which was inversely related to species occurrence. The most probable cause of the observed species disappearance is global warming| which severely affected northern South America during the last 50 years (+2 degrees C)| with a concomitant increase in the occurrence of aridity. 10011,2009,4,4,A Century of Solar Ca II Measurements and Their Implication for Solar UV Driving of Climate,Spectroheliograms and disk-integrated flux monitoring in the strong resonance line of Ca II (K line) provide the longest record of chromospheric magnetic plages. We compare recent reductions of the Ca II K spectroheliograms obtained since 1907 at the Kodaikanal| Mt. Wilson| and US National Solar Observatories. Certain differences between the individual plage indices appear to be caused mainly by differences in the spectral passbands used. Our main finding is that the indices show remarkably consistent behavior on the multidecadal time scales of greatest interest to global warming studies. The reconstruction of solar ultraviolet flux variation from these indices differs significantly from the 20th-century global temperature record. This difference is consistent with other findings that| although solar UV irradiance variation may affect climate through influence on precipitation and storm tracks| its significance in global temperature remains elusive. 10167,2009,3,3,A combined process integration and fuel switching strategy for emissions reduction in chemical process plants,The combustion of fossil fuel to provide process heating is the major source of atmospheric pollution. Combustion products such as carbon dioxide| oxides of sulfur| oxides of nitrogen and particulates are known to be the major causes for global warming| acid rains and smog. This paper presents a combined method of fuel switching and heat exchanger network (HEN) retrofit to reduce flue gas emissions. The method is demonstrated using pre-heat train of a crude oil distillation unit as the case study. Target emissions reduction of 50% is achieved at an approximate payback period of 0.44 year on the capital investment due to the combination of the two methods. (c) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 9350,2009,3,4,A Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Single-Use Fibre Drums Versus Reusable Steel Drums,This paper deals with a comparative analysis of two different packaging and transport scenarios| which exemplifies the implications of choosing between single-use and reusable packaging. In particular| transport of a batch of chemicals by means of disposable fibre drums versus reusable steel drums is investigated from a life cycle perspective| and the associated environmental impact in terms of global warming potential| acidification potential| gross energy requirement and solid waste generation is assessed. Results prove beyond reasonable doubt that even in the case of durable packaging containers requiring the use of comparatively energy-intensive materials for their production| the reuse scenario is characterized by lower environmental impact indicators across the board| and as such is the most advisable and environmentally sound option. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 9419,2009,3,2,A comparative study on the energy policies in Japan and Malaysia in fulfilling their nations' obligations towards the Kyoto Protocol,Global warming and the associated changes in the world climate pattern have been accepted world wide as the gravest threat to humanity in the 20th century. To mitigate the impacts of global warming| the Kyoto Protocol was established in 1997 with the objective of reducing global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission| in particular carbon dioxide (CO(2))| by 5.2% below 1990 levels. Developed nations that ratified the Protocol are committed to GHG reduction targets while developing nations are encouraged to reduce GHG emissions on a voluntary basis. Since most of the GHGs emissions come from the energy sector| energy policy plays an important role in fulfilling the Kyoto Protocol obligations. This year marks the beginning of the commitment period for the 2012 Kyoto Protocol. In this case| it would be worthwhile to compare the energy policies in Malaysia and Japan as these nations move towards fulfilling their obligations towards the Kyoto Protocol; bearing in mind that both countries ratified the Protocol| but that Japan commits a reduction target of 6% while Malaysia bears no obligation. Based on the comparison| recommendations were made on how a developing nation like Malaysia could adopt the policies implemented in Japan to suit local conditions and contribute significantly to GHG reduction. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10348,2009,2,3,A comparison of the observed trends and simulated changes in extreme climate indices in the Carpathian Basin by the end of this century,Global warming results in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation| and also| in frequency and intensity changes of climate extremes. In this paper| temperature and precipitation extreme indices are analysed and compared for the Carpathian Basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe). For past trends| daily meteorological observations from the 20th century are used. In the case of future changes (2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990| A2 and B2 scenarios)| the simulated daily outputs are obtained from regional climate model experiments. The results suggest that the regional climate of the Carpathian Basin got warmer during the second half of the 20th century| especially in the last quarter. Regional warming is expected to continue in the 21st century| cold temperature extremes are projected to decrease in frequency| while warm extremes will tend to increase significantly. Regarding precipitation| the regional intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation have increased in the past decades| while the total precipitation decreased in the region and the mean climate became drier. The projected changes in different seasons are opposite to each other; the extreme precipitation events are expected to become more intense and frequent in winter| while a general decrease of the extreme precipitation indices is expected in summer. 9782,2009,3,4,A comprehensive environmental assessment of petrochemical solvent production,Organic solvents are used in large quantities in the chemical| metal and electronics industries as well as in many consumer products| such as coatings or paints| and are therefore among the most important chemicals. The petrochemical production of organic solvents is a relevant environmental issue because fossil resources are needed (crude oil and natural gas)| synthesis processes are energy-intensive and cause considerable amounts of emissions. So far| comprehensive data on the environmental impact are rather scarce. The aim of this paper is to therefore present a systematical environmental assessment of the main petrochemical solvent production routes using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method. Fifty organic solvents were selected covering the most important representatives from the various chemical groups (e.g.| alcohols| esters| ketones). To conduct the LCA| 40 new Life Cycle Inventories (LCI) were established and existing LCI were improved. The petrochemical solvent production was structured into four production routes. In these production routes| the single chemical unit processes (e.g. esterification| carbonylation or hydrogenation) were analyzed in order to determine characteristic environmental impacts. The four solvent production routes including the unit processes and intermediates are presented. Additionally| energy profiles of these production routes are shown using the Cumulative Primary Energy Demand (CED) as an indicator for the environmental impact. The results were cross-checked with the Global Warming Potential and the Eco-indicator 99 method and good correlations were found. Processes that show high environmental impacts are the dehydration of butylene glycol to tetrahydrofuran| the carbonylation of methanol to methyl formate| the hydrogenation of acetone to methyl isobutyl ketone| and the Reppe synthesis of formaldehyd/acetylene to butylene glycol. Based on the energy profiles| ranges of environmental impacts are determined for all unit processes. On the one hand| esterification and alkylation processes cause high CED values because complex ancillaries are needed and hydroformylation and carbonylation processes are energy-intensive. On the other hand| in hydration| hydrogenation| hydrolysis| and oxidation processes| ancillaries with low CED are added to the chemical structure that result in low CED ranges for these unit processes. Dehydrogenation and molecular sieve separation processes seem to be energy efficient and no ancillaries are required. Therefore| these unit processes cause the lowest CED values. Subject of further research in this field should be the environmental analysis of further process steps that include the presented unit processes and a subsequent statistical analysis in order to derive reliable data ranges for all unit processes. Such statistically robust ranges could be used in the approximation of missing life-cycle inventory data of other chemical products and intermediates. 9718,2009,3,3,A CONCEPTUAL STUDY FOR A FEASIBLE FUSION ENERGY UTILIZATION PLANT,Considering fast occurring of global warming| fusion energy realization is on demand at the earliest possible base. But present progress of fusion energy realization is very much limited in terms of technical gains| which meet the condition for pure fusion power plant| and socio-economic recognition from the public and economic sectors. To boost a rapidprogress of fusion energy realization a possible scheme for the quickest 'Utilization' of fusion fast neutron is proposed by adopting a possible fusion neutron production condition from a presumed further to be developed tokamak| which could be operated by a reliable operation mode. With feasible blanket design along with material development| a possible energy plant| which could be used either for electricity generation or for fissile fuel breeding via hybrid blanket| might be a feasible option as an intermediate step towards fusion era. An initial sketch of system design requirement study and future possible implementation scheme is presented. 9784,2009,4,4,A contribution by ice nuclei to global warming,Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets| that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones| the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper| ten years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude| which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude| large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a cloud-resolving model to generate long-term cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations| the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude| which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations| based on the radiative balance of the globe| is compared with that from anthropogenic CO(2). It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming| there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast| the latter relies on IN sources (e.g. the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus| their effect on global warming can be inferred and can then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal variations between the inferred and observed warming suggests that IN may have contributed positively to global warming over the past decades| especially in middle and high latitudes. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 9404,2009,4,4,A critical overview of pan evaporation trends over the last 50 years,Despite the observed increases in global average temperature| observations across the world show that the rate of pan evaporation at a regional scale has been steadily decreasing over the past 50 years. This is known as the pan evaporation paradox. This paper reviews current reported pan evaporation trends| examines available theoretical explanations about this "paradox"| and discusses current research gaps and priorities. It concludes that: (1) three major potential causes of pan evaporation| solar radiation| vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and wind speed| have been changing in the last 50 years. The magnitude of changes and importance of each of these three causes varies from region to region| as does the pan evaporation trend| although overall there is a decreasing trend. (2) Currently two existing theories explaining the pan evaporation trends have limits and are only valid in some specific regions and seasons. Neither of them provides a fundamental physical-based theory that could be applied everywhere. (3) Further investigations are needed before we can fully understand the global evapotranspiration trend in global warming scenarios. 9322,2009,3,3,A database for poplar gene co-expression analysis for systematic understanding of biological processes| including stress responses,Reforestation in the humid tropics and arid zones| where trees are often subject to stresses| is an effective approach for mitigating global warming. Forestation with Populus species that are tolerant to the stresses in such regions has been conducted. The selection of poplar trees with higher stress tolerance leads to more efficient reforestation. The genome-wide bioinformatics approaches of gene function have been used for revealing the mechanisms of biological processes| including such stress tolerance. The decoding of the poplar genome has been followed by the genome-wide identification of genes and then the inference of gene function for systematic understanding of biological processes. To predict gene function in poplar| we analyzed poplar gene expression data using DNA microarray datasets obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus database and developed a database for poplar gene co-expression analysis. Using the database| we illustrate the steps to retrieve two groups of co-expressed genes that are specifically expressed in experiments of hypoxic stress response in gray poplar| a flooding-tolerant tree species. Our database allows users to extract genes involved in biological processes| such as stress reaction| and then is useful for understanding such mechanisms in tree species. 9461,2009,3,4,A decision support tool for modifications in crop cultivation method based on life cycle assessment: a case study on greenhouse gas emission reduction in Taiwanese sugarcane cultivation,Background| aim| and scope Nowadays| various crops are cultivated to supply emerging needs in sustainable fuels and materials. In addition to the development of crop processing technologies| cultivation processes in a cropping system could be modified to meet the emerging needs| along with the conventional needs in food supply. This study provides a decision tool for modifications in cultivation of crops based on life cycle assessment. Sugarcane cultivation in Taiwan is chosen as a case study to present such a decision tool| because it is an important potential indigenous resource for energy (for example| bio-ethanol) and materials (for example| bio-plastics). First| this study presents the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the production of 1 ton of sugarcane in Taiwan| which makes it possible to understand how it is consistent to develop this bio-resource in terms of both objectives: i.e.| resource security and reduction of global warming impact. Next| sensitivity of the parameters in cropping systems| such as amount of irrigation| fertilization and tillage are assessed from a viewpoint of GHG emissions| using the LCI model constructed in the first step. Finally| equivalent impact level (EIL) lines are presented for some important parameters in the cropping system to support considerations in modification of agricultural methods. Because the objective is to discuss parameters in cultivation processes| the scope of study is limited to cradle-to-gate of raw sugarcane transported to the cane processing plant. Materials and methods In addition to GHG emissions from cultivation processes| such as soil preparation| growing| harvesting and transportation| auxiliary processes such as agrochemicals production| power generation and fossil diesel fuel refining was accounted for. To quantify the nitrous oxide emission from the soil ecosystem| a denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model was used with the localized data obtained in this study. EIL lines were developed aiming at supporting decisions about modifying agricultural methods that should be made considering consequential changes in environmental impacts. For example| if the envisioned improvement in yield as a result of modification of parameters such as irrigation| tillage and fertilization is likely to achieve a value above the EIL line| GHG emission per ton of sugarcane would be decreased. An iterative procedure is applied to draw nonlinear EIL lines using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 3 method for nitrous oxide emission from soil. Results A 3 year crop cycle was assumed| and the net GHG emissions associated with the sugarcane produced was 280 kg-CO(2)-equiv. per ton of raw sugarcane. The emission of nitrous oxide from soil during cultivation accounted for 50.4% of the total emissions. One-at-a-time sensitivity analysis indicates that this result is most sensitive to yield and amount of nitrogen fertilizer applied| which are correlated to each other. The EIL lines were drawn for yield over five parameters in cultivation including amount of nitrogen fertilizer applied with respect to GHG emission. For example| if an additional 5% of nitrogen fertilizer application realizes enhancement of yield by 5 tons per hectare| such modification simultaneously reduces total GHGs associated with sugarcane production. Discussion The EIL lines drawn with respect to various environmental impacts aims to provide a simple-to-use guidance in reconsideration of agricultural options. The cradle-to-gate LCA of sugarcane provides information useful in development of bioethanol and bioplastics derived from sucrose in the cane juice. In doing so| it must be noted| if extension of farm area is among the options to be assessed| that release of the carbon stock from the original state of use should be accounted for in addition to the result presented in this study. Absorbed CO(2) should be quantified separately based on the content of the sugarcane| which could be varied for different cultivars. Conclusions This study presents a decision tool to allow introduction of an environmental life cycle perspective in modification of cultivation methods| which has already been undergoing as driven by economic reasons. The data and inventory method presented in this study can be applied for varied end products derived from sugarcane. The algorithm to develop an EIL line for correlated parameters in the inventory model was presented. Recommendations and perspectives Results from this study require appropriate modification if they are to be used for studies for other regions. Such modifications would be straightforward| because all inventory data and assumptions are presented in this paper. Essentially| the functional unit used in this study is unit amount (by weight) of sugarcane. If some specific content (for example| sucrose or cellulose) is important in a study which attempts to use results from this study| variations in the content over cultivation methods and cultivar of sugarcane must be investigated further. 10220,2009,5,4,A dynamic climate and ecosystem state during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: inferences from dinoflagellate cyst assemblages on the New Jersey Shelf,Late Paleocene and Early Eocene climates and ecosystems underwent significant change during several transient global warming phases| associated with rapidly increasing atmospheric carbon concentrations| of which the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; similar to 55.5 Ma) is best studied. While biotic response to the PETM as a whole (similar to 170 kyrs) has been relatively well documented| variations during the PETM have been neglected. Here we present organic dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) distribution patterns across two stratigraphically expanded PETM sections from the New Jersey Shelf| Bass River and Wilson Lake. Many previously studied sites show a uniform abundance of the thermophilic and presumably heterotrophic taxon Apectodinium that spans the entire carbon isotope excursion (CIE) of the PETM. In contrast| the New Jersey sections show large variations in abundances of many taxa. during the PETM| including the new species Florentinia reichartii that we formally propose. We infer paleoecological preferences of taxa that show temporal abundance peaks| both qualitative and absolute quantitative| from empirical as well as statistical information| i.e.| principle (PCA) and canonical correspondence analyses (CCA). In the CCAs| we combine the dinocyst data with previously published environmental proxy data from these locations| such as TEX(86) paleothermometry| magnetic susceptibility and sedimentary size fraction. The combined information supports previous inferences that sea level rose during the PETM| but also indicates a (regional) increase in fresh-water runoff that started similar to 10 kyr after the onset of the CIE| and perhaps precession-paced cycles in sea surface productivity. The highly variable dinocyst assemblages of the PETM contrast with rather stable Upper Paleocene assemblages| which suggests that carbon input caused a dynamic climate state| at least regionally. 969,2009,4,4,A fully implantable multi-channel biotelemetry system for measurement of blood flow and temperature: a first evaluation in the green sturgeon,The objective of this study was to evaluate a novel fully implantable radio-based blood flow biotelemetry system which allows simultaneously measurement of blood flow on two channels and temperature on one channel| in fish. These are the first recordings of blood flow from free-swimming fish| showing that the system is capable of recording blood flow in the ventral aorta (cardiac output) and celiacomesenteric artery (gastrointestinal blood flow) in green sturgeon Acipenser medirostris exposed to a series of different stimuli for up to 7 days after implantation. The results showed stable base line recordings and blood flow was used to calculated heart rate (f (H)) and stroke volume (V (s)). It was possible to reproduce the same type of responses as has previously been reported during exposure to hypoxia| temperature| stress and feeding. The mass of our implant was less than 2% of the body mass which is well within the recommended sizes for surgically implanted telemetry transmitters and it fitted easily within the abdominal cavity of the sturgeon. A fully implantable system minimizes the risk of infection/expulsion and maximizes the likelihood that the studied fish will behave naturally and be treated normally by surrounding fish. The use of biotelemetry in basic comparative physiology and applied animal ecology could help scientists to collect information that has previously been challenging to obtain and to open the possibility for new types of physiological and ecophysiological studies. 9314,2009,2,4,A general adaptation strategy for climate change impacts on paddy cultivation: special reference to the Japanese context,Climate changes due to global warming may affect paddy cultivation considerably. Climate changes directly affect rice plant growth| and within paddy cultivation catchments| alter the hydrological regime including flood patterns and water availability for irrigation| and drainage. Although increased atmospheric CO(2) concentrations in the future may enhance plant growth through the CO(2) fertilization effect| impacts of climate change on agriculture are complicated and difficult to predict precisely. This is especially the case for assessing impacts on paddy cultivation| where basin hydrological behavior needs to be understood in detail. Possible adaptations to reduce negative impacts should be tailored to local conditions| which modify climate change impacts on paddy cultivation. In this article| climate change impacts on paddy cultivation are reviewed and a general adaptation strategy is discussed with special reference to the Japanese context. 9635,2009,3,4,A hybrid life cycle assessment model for comparison with conventional methodologies in Australia,One barrier to the further implementation of LCA as a quantitative decision-support tool is the uncertainty created by the diversity of available analytical approaches. This paper compares conventional ('process analysis') and alternative ('input-output analysis') approaches to LCA| and presents a hybrid LCA model for Australia that overcomes the methodological limitations of process and input-output analysis and enables a comparison between the results achieved using each method. A case study from the water industry illustrates this comparison. We have developed a tiered hybrid model for calculating the life cycle impacts of a system. In so doing| we have developed a novel way of overcoming a key methodological issue associated with this method: avoiding double counting. We calculate 'system incompleteness factors' and use these to delete the lower-order burdens in the input-output inventory according to the depth of production taken into account in the process inventory. We apply this method to a case study of Sydney Water Corporation. The functional unit is the provision of water and sewerage services to residential| industrial| and commercial customers in the city of Sydney in the year 2002/03. We analysed the case study using three methods: process analysis| input-output analysis| and hybrid analysis. In each case| we obtained results for eight impact categories: water use; primary energy use; global warming potential; carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic human toxicity potentials; and terrestrial| marine and freshwater ecotoxicity potentials. Although the process analysis has a relatively shallow investigative depth| it shows good system coverage (i.e. a small truncation error) for most indicators. The truncation errors for all of the indicators except marine aquatic ecotoxicity potential compare favourably with predicted truncation errors for the relevant industry sector. This suggests that the truncation error of a particular process analysis cannot be accurately predicted using generic system completeness curves| and implies that the truncation error of a typical process analysis may be less severe than is commonly generalised by the proponents of input-output analysis. The case study supports the largely theoretical claims in the literature about the relative merits and drawbacks of process and input-output analysis. Each method has the potential to highlight different aspects of the system. By estimating the truncation error of the process analysis independently of the relationship between the results obtained using the other methods| our hybrid model enhances the ability to investigate the differences between results and thus adds considerable value to such a study. Input-output LCA has become more popular as computational tools have become more accessible. We directly compare input-output| process and hybrid LCA and recommend that| from an environmental analysis perspective| it would be beneficial to consider the three methodologies in parallel. We highlight the potential for misinterpretation of differences between methods that rely on different reporting frameworks| and recommend that LCA method and practice continue to emphasise the role of careful interpretation. 994,2009,5,4,A lacustrine record from Lop Nur| Xinjiang| China: Implications for paleoclimate change during Late Pleistocene,Climate variability during the Late Pleistocene is studied from the proxies in core CK-2 drilled from the Luobei Depression (91 degrees 03'E| 40 degrees 47'N)| Lop Nur in the eastern Tarim Basin| Xinjiang| China. Geophysical and geochemical properties| including magnetic susceptibility| granularity| chroma| carbonate content| loss on ignition and trace elements| have been determined to reconstruct the environmental evolution of the area during 32-9 ka BP. The chronology is established by uranium-thorium disequilibrium dating techniques. Our data suggest four paleoclimate stages| indicating glacial variations between cold-humid and warm-arid environments. A period of extreme humidity occurred during 31|900-19|200 yr BP is attributed the last glacial maximum (LGM). The period was followed by a warm-arid episode during 19|200-13|500 yr BP. Then a cold-humid interval during 13|500-12|700 yr BP may correspond to another cooling phases at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The last stage from 12|700 to 9000 yr BP has a trend that the climate turned warm and arid. The Lop Nur region is characterized by particularly humid stadials and and interstadials. The climate variability in Lop Nur was constrained by global climate change because it is correlated with Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events| which were observed at the northern high latitudes. The synchroneity of the palaeoclimatic events suggested that cold air activity at the northern high latitudes was the most important factor that influenced the climate evolution in the Lop Nur region. A probable mechanism that involves the migration of westerly winds is proposed to interpret this synchroneity. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10340,2009,3,4,A life cycle greenhouse gas emissions perspective on liquid fuels from unconventional Canadian and US fossil sources,The life cycle Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions associated with the production and use of transportation fuels from conventional and unconventional fossil fuel sources in Canada and the USA are investigated. The studied pathways include reformulated gasoline and low sulphur diesel produced from oil sands| oil shale| coal and natural gas| as well as reference pathways from conventional crude oil. A comparison of Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) completed for these fuels indicates considerable uncertainty in these emissions| illustrating the need for further LCAs with particular attention to completeness and transparency. Based on the considered studies| only one unconventional pathway has better GHG emissions performance than the conventional pathways: Fischer-Tropsch diesel from natural gas. However| the limitations of the data used here and other factors that may restrict a switch to natural gas must be considered. Furthermore| there are considerable opportunities to reduce emissions from the unconventional pathways. There is significant potential to produce liquid transportation fuels from unconventional Canadian and US fossil sources. However| to avoid significant increases in GHG emissions| the life cycle GHG implications of almost all pathways will need to be reduced to respond to upcoming regulatory initiatives and to move towards a more sustainable transportation sector. 10308,2009,3,4,A life-cycle assessment of Portland cement manufacturing: comparing the traditional process with alternative technologies,Concern over the impact of anthropogenic carbon emissions on the global climate has increased in recent years due to growth in global warming awareness. Approximately 5% of global CO(2) emissions originate from the manufacturing of cement| the third largest source of carbon emission in the United States. In addition to the generation of CO(2) the cement manufacturing process produces millions of tons of the waste product cement kiln dust (CKD) each year contributing to respiratory and pollution health risks. In this paper LCA is used to evaluate the environmental impact of four cement manufacturing processes: (1) the production of traditional Portland cement| (2) blended cement (natural pozzolans)| (3) cement where 100% of waste cement kiln dust is recycled into the kiln process| and (4) Portland cement produced when cement kiln dust (CKD) is used to sequester a portion of the process related CO(2) emissions. To reduce uncertainty this manuscript presents a cradle-to-gate life-cycle assessment of several cement products. Analysis using SimaPro 6.0 software shows that blended cements provide the greatest environmental savings followed by utilization of CKD for sequestration. The recycling of CKD was found to have little environmental savings over the traditional process. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10373,2009,3,4,A matrix for selecting sustainable floor coverings for buildings in Sri Lanka,This paper presents a method to facilitate the decision-making process in selecting sustainable floors (elements) for buildings in Sri Lanka| taking into consideration environmental| economic and social assessments of materials used for these elements. Two types of elements are selected for this study| namely| tile and vinyl tile| Environmental burdens associated with these elements are analyzed in terms of embodied energy and environmental impacts that are relevant to Sri Lanka| such as global warming| acidification and nutrient enrichment. Economic analysis is based on market prices and affordability of materials. Factors considered for the social analysis are thermal comfort| good interior (aesthetics)| ability to construct fast| strength and durability. It was found that tile elements are superior to vinyl tile elements on environmental scores if processes of complete life cycle of these elements are taken into account. On social score also| tile elements (104.8) are better than vinyl tile elements (51.15). But on economic score| vinyl tile elements are better. These scores are presented in a matrix which will help in selecting sustainable floor coverings for buildings. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9909,2009,3,4,A matrix in life cycle perspective for selecting sustainable materials for buildings in Sri Lanka,This paper presents a matrix to select sustainable materials for buildings in Sri Lanka| taking into consideration environmental| economic and social assessments of materials in a life cycle perspective. Five building elements| viz.. foundations| roofs| ceilings| doors and windows| and floors are analyzed based on materials used for these elements. Environmental burdens associated with these elements are analyzed in terms of embodied energy and environmental impacts such as global warming| acidification and nutrient enrichment. Economic analysis is based on market prices and affordability of materials. Social factors that are taken into account are thermal comfort| interior (aesthetics)| ability to construct quickly| strength and durability. By compiling the results of analyses| two building types with minimum and maximum impacts are identified. These two cases along with existing buildings are compared in a matrix of environmental| economic and social scores. Analysis of the results also indicates need for higher consideration of environmental parameters in decision-making over social and economic factors| as social and economic scores do not vary much between cases. Hence| this matrix helps decision-makers to select sustainable materials for buildings| meaningfully| and thus helps to move towards a more sustainable buildings and construction sector. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9971,2009,3,4,A New Class of Opacified Monolithic Aerogels of Ultralow High-Temperature Thermal Conductivities,The development of materials of ultralow high-temperature thermal conductivities for applications in high-temperature thermal insulations has become increasingly more important than ever in view of the ever worsening issues of fossil energy depletion and global warming that call for more demanding energy-saving practices. In this study| a new class of opacified monolithic aerogels of ultralow high-temperature thermal conductivities was developed for thermal insulation applications at high temperatures. Carbon nanofibers were successfully incorporated into the mesoporous network of silica aerogels at concentrations as high as 20 wt % through an accelerated-gelation sol-gel process to enhance the dimensional stability of the silica aerogels and to suppress the thermal radiations that become dominant at high temperatures| to achieve an ultralow thermal conductivity of 0.050 W/m-K at 500 degrees C| whereas maintaining a thermal stability above 500 degrees C (much better than the conventional high-temperature thermal insulation materials: 0.3 W/m-K at 500 degrees C for glass fibers| 0.1 W/m-K at 527 degrees C for alumina fused brick| and 1.7 W/m-K at 527 degrees C for sillimante). 9924,2009,4,4,A new framework for isolating individual feedback processes in coupled general circulation climate models. Part I: formulation,This paper proposes a coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method (CFRAM) as a new framework for estimating climate feedbacks in coupled general circulation models with a full set of physical parameterization packages. The formulation of the CFRAM is based on the energy balance in an atmosphere-surface column. In the CFRAM| the isolation of partial temperature changes due to an external forcing or an individual feedback is achieved by solving the linearized infrared radiation transfer model subject to individual energy flux perturbations (external or due to feedbacks). The partial temperature changes are addable and their sum is equal to the (total) temperature change (in the linear sense). The decomposition of feedbacks is based on the thermodynamic and dynamical processes that directly affect individual energy flux terms. Therefore| not only those feedbacks that directly affect the TOA radiative fluxes| such as water vapor| clouds| and ice-albedo feedbacks| but also those feedbacks that do not directly affect the TOA radiation| such as evaporation| convections| and convergence of horizontal sensible and latent heat fluxes| are explicitly included in the CFRAM. In the CFRAM| the feedback gain matrices measure the strength of individual feedbacks. The feedback gain matrices can be estimated from the energy flux perturbations inferred from individual parameterization packages and dynamical modules. The inter-model spread of a feedback gain matrix would help us to detect the origins of the uncertainty of future climate projections in climate model simulations. 925,2009,4,2,A new look at atmospheric carbon dioxide,Carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere and is of considerable concern in global climate change because of its greenhouse gas warming potential. The rate of increase has accelerated since measurements began at Mauna Loa Observatory in 1958 where carbon dioxide increased from less than 1 part per million per year (ppm yr(-1)) prior to 1970 to more than 2 ppm yr(-1) in recent years. Here we show that the anthropogenic component (atmospheric value reduced by the pre-industrial value of 280 ppm) of atmospheric carbon dioxide has been increasing exponentially with a doubling time of about 30 years since the beginning of the industrial revolution (similar to 1800). Even during the 1970s| when fossil fuel emissions dropped sharply in response to the "oil crisis" of 1973| the anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide level continued increasing exponentially at Mauna Loa Observatory. Since the growth rate (time derivative) of an exponential has the same characteristic lifetime as the function itself| the carbon dioxide growth rate is also doubling at the same rate. This explains the observation that the linear growth rate of carbon dioxide has more than doubled in the past 40 years. The accelerating growth rate is simply the outcome of exponential growth in carbon dioxide with a nearly constant doubling time of about 30 years (about 2%/yr) and appears to have tracked human population since the pre-industrial era. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9610,2009,3,3,A new methodology for the design of low energy buildings,The Kyoto protocol binded the developed countries to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions at least by 5% by 2008-2012 in order to tackle global warming and climate change. Some of the measures of the governments to achieve this goal are to promote new buildings construction and to retrofit existing buildings while satisfying low energy criteria. This means improving energy efficiency of buildings and energy systems| developing sustainable building concepts and promoting renewable energy sources. The design of a low energy building requires parametric studies via simulation tools in order to optimize the design of the building envelope and HVAC systems. These studies are often complex and time consuming due to a large number of parameters to consider. Hence| this paper aims to set up a methodology that simplifies parametrical studies during the design process of a low energy building. The methodology is based on the Design of Experiments (DOE) method which is a statistical method widely used in industry to perform parametric studies that reduces the required number of experiments. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9950,2009,5,4,A new species of Craigia from the Eocene Changchang Formation of Hainan Island| China,The modern distribution centre of the genus Craigia is situated in South China and adjacent northernmost Vietnam| but it was widely distributed in Europe| North America and East Asia during the Tertiary. Up to now| the genus Craigia includes only two extant and two fossil species. Based on a detailed study of the fossil material from the coal-bearing deposits of the Changchang Formation (Eocene) from the Changchang Basin of Hainan Island| China| Craigia hainanensis sp. nov. is established. This is the first fossil record of Craigia in its modern distribution centre which provides a new data on the origin and phytogeographic history of this genus. The distribution of extant and fossil Craigia in North America| Europe| Central and East Asia suggests that the Far East of Russia is a possible centre of origin of Craigia where the fossil record of this genus goes back to the Paleocene. During the Eocence global warming event| Craigia had dispersed rapidly to North America| Spitzbergen| East and Central Asia| and reached its modern distribution centre in South China no later than in the early Late Eocene. During the Oligocene and Neogene this genus continued to spread over Asia and further dispersed to Europe. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10075,2009,2,4,A new variable for climate change study and implications for the built environment,This short technical note presents an attempt to develop a new climatic variable Z for assessing climate change ( global warming) with respect to the built environment. Principal component analysis of long-term (30-year) dry-bulb temperature (DBT)| wet-bulb temperature and global solar radiation data was conducted in the 5 major climate zones in China. It was found that while the long-term trend was increasing for the DBT in all 5 major climates| hot summer and warm winter climate zone showed a decreasing trend (though slightly) in the annual and seasonal average Z values. This suggests that climate change might not necessarily result in higher cooling loads in buildings. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10206,2009,2,4,A nonlinear model coupling rockfall and rainfall intensity based on a four year measurement in a high Alpine rock wall (Reintal| German Alps),A total of more than 140 000 kg of small-magnitude rockfall deposits was measured in eight rockfall collectors of altogether 940 m(2) in size between 1999-2003 below a 400-600 m high rock face in the Reintal| German Alps. Measurements were conducted with a temporal resolution up to single days to attribute rockfall intensity to observed triggering events. Precipitation was assessed by a rain gauge and high-resolution precipitation radar. Intense rainstorms triggered previously unreported rockfall intensities of up to 300 000 g/(m(2)h) that we term "secondary rockfall event." In comparison to dry periods without frost (10(-2) g/(m(2)h))| rockfall deposition increased by 2-218 times during wet freeze-thaw cycles and by 56-thousand to 40-million times during secondary rockfall events. We obtained three nonlinear logistic growth models that relate rockfall intensity [g/(m(2)h)] to rainfall intensity [mm/h]. The models account for different rock wall intermediate storage volumes| triggering thresholds and storage depletion. They apply to all rockfall collector positions with correlations from R(2)=0.89 to 0.99. Thus| the timing of more than 90% of the encountered rockfall is explained by the triggering factor rainfall intensity. A combination of rockfall response models with radar-supported storm cell forecast could be used to anticipate hazardous rockfall events| and help to reduce the exposure of individuals and mobile structures (e.g. cable cars) to the hazard. According to meteorological recordings| the frequency of these intense rockfall events is likely to increase in response to global warming.
9923,2009,3,3,A novel approach for treatment of CO(2) from fossil fired power plants| Part A: The integrated systems ITRPP,The environmental issues| due to the global warming caused by the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere| require new strategies aimed to increase power plants efficiencies and to reduce CO(2) emissions. This two-paper work focuses on a different approach for capture and reduction of CO(2) from flue gases of fossil fired power plant| with respect to conventional post-combustion technologies. This approach consists of flue gases utilization as co-reactants in a catalytic process| the tri-reforming process| to generate a synthesis gas suitable in chemical and energy industries (methanol| DME| etc.). in fact| the further conversion of syngas to a transportation fuel| such as methanol| is an attractive solution to introduce near zero-emission technologies (i.e. fuel cells) in vehicular applications. In this Part A| integrated systems for co-generation of electrical power and synthesis gas useful for methanol production have been defined and their performance has been investigated considering different flue gases compositions. In Part B| in order to verify the environmental advantages and energy suitability of these systems| their comparison with conventional technology for methanol production is carried out. The integrated systems (ITRPP| Integrated Tri-Reforming Power Plant) consist of a power island| based on a thermal power plant| and a methane tri-reforming island in which the power plants' exhausts react with methane to produce a synthesis gas used for methanol synthesis. As power island| a steam turbine power plant fuelled with coal and a gas turbine combined cycle fuelled with natural gas have been considered. The energy and environmental analysis of ITRPP systems (ITRPP-SC and ITRPP-CC) has been carried out by using thermochemical and thermodynamic models which have allowed to calculate the syngas composition| to define the energy and mass balances and to estimate the CO(2) emissions for each ITRPP configuration. The repowering of the base power plants (steam turbine power plant and gas turbine combine cycle) is very high because of the large amount of steam produced in the tri-reforming island (in the ITRPP-SC is about of 64%| while in the ITRPP-CC is about of 105%). The reduction in the CO(2) emissions has been estimated in 83% (1S.4 vs. 93.4 kg/GJ(Fuelinput)) and 84% (8.9 vs. 56.2 kg/GJ(Fuelinput)) for the ITRPP-SC and ITRPP-CC respectively. (C) 2009 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9607,2009,2,4,A one ocean model of biodiversity,The history of life is written in the ocean| and the history of the ocean is written in DNA. Geologists have shown us that hundreds of millions of years of ocean history can be revealed from records of a single phylum in cores of mud from abyssal plains. We are now accumulating genetic tools to unravel the relationships of hundreds of phyla to track this history back billions of years. The technologies demonstrated by the Census of Marine Life (CoML) mean that the ocean is no longer opaque or unknowable. The secrets of the largest component of the biosphere are knowable. The cost of understanding the history of ocean life is not cheap| but it is also not prohibitive. A transparent| open ocean is available for us to use to understand ourselves. This article develops a model of biodiversity equilibration in a single| physically static ocean as a step towards biodiversity in physically complex real oceans. It attempts to be quantitative and to simultaneously account for biodiversity patterns from bacteria to whales focusing on emergent proper-ties rather than details. Biodiversity reflects long-term survival of DNA sequences| stabilizing "ecosystem services" despite environmental change. In the ocean| mechanisms for ensuring survival range from prokaryotes maintaining low concentrations of replicable DNA throughout the ocean volume| anticipating local change| to animals whose mobility increases with mass to avoid local change through movement. Whales can reach any point in the ocean in weeks| but prokaryotes can only diffuse. The high metabolic costs of mobility are offset by the dramatically lower number of DNA replicates required to ensure survival. Reproduction rates probably scale more or less inversely with body mass. Bacteria respond in a week| plankton in a year| whales in a century. We generally lack coherent theories to explain the origins of animals (metazoans) and the contributions of biodiversity to ecosystems. The One Ocean Model suggests that mobile metazoans paved the way for their own energetic life styles by decreasing the amount of primary production sinking to feed the benthic anaerobic prokaryotes. Increasing metazoan mobility and diversity ensured that less and less production sank and accelerated development of the aerobic oceans they require. High biodiversity among middle-sized organisms stabilizes the system| but rapid environmental changes can decrease diversity in a positive feedback loop ending in mass extinction events and the return of the anaerobes. The oceans have gone through this cycle several times. Global warming may be a mild flu compared to "the revenge of the microbes". (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9926,2009,3,3,A one-dimensional model of vertical gas plume migration through a heterogeneous porous medium,This work is motivated by the growing interest in injecting carbon dioxide into deep geological formations as a means of avoiding its atmospheric emissions and consequent global warming. Ideally| the injected greenhouse gas stays in the injection zone for a geologic time| eventually dissolves in the formation brine and remains trapped by mineralization. However| one of the potential problems associated with the geologic method of sequestration is that naturally present or inadvertently created conduits in the cap rock may result in a gas leakage from primary storage. Even in supercritical state| the carbon dioxide viscosity and density are lower than those of the formation brine. Buoyancy tends to drive the leaked CO(2) plume upward. Theoretical and experimental studies of buoyancy-driven supercritical CO(2) flow| including estimation of time scales associated with plume evolution and migration| are critical for developing technology| monitoring policy| and regulations for safe carbon dioxide geologic sequestration. in this study| we obtain simple estimates of vertical plume propagation velocity taking into account the density and viscosity contrast between CO(2) and brine. We describe buoyancy-driven countercurrent flow of two immiscible phases by a Buckley-Leverett type model. The model predicts that a plume of supercritical carbon dioxide in a homogeneous water-saturated porous medium does not migrate upward like a bubble in bulk water. Rather| it spreads upward until it reaches a seal or until it becomes immobile. A simple formula requiring no complex numerical calculations describes the velocity of plume propagation. This solution is a simplification of a more comprehensive theory of countercurrent plume migration [Silin| D.| Patzek| T.W.| Benson| S.M.| 2007. A Model of Buoyancy-driven Two-phase Countercurrent Fluid Flow. Laboratory Report LBNL-62607. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory| Berkeley| CA]. In a layered reservoir| the simplified solution predicts a slower plume front propagation relative to a homogeneous formation with the same harmonic mean permeability. in contrast| the model yields much higher plume propagation estimates in a high-permeability conduit like a vertical fracture. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9420,2009,5,4,A possible link between the geomagnetic field and catastrophic climate at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum,We report high-precision records of a magnetic reversal event at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM)| a cataclysmic global warming event initiated at 55.0 Ma. This event is confirmed by both an antipodal shift in direction and a reduction in magnetic intensity during the lower and upper transitions| and it is seen at additional sites| indicating that the characteristic remanent magnetization (ChRM) was primarily acquired by Earth's magnetic field during sedimentation. This major fluctuation of Earth's magnetic field intensity is interpreted to have been linked to the PETM and to have eventually facilitated the reversal. This Paleocene-Eocene magnetic reversal (PEMR) lasted for similar to 53 ka| from 54.964 to 54.911 Ma| but finally recovered to an original polarity. This suggests a possible coupling between Earth's core magnetofluid dynamo sphere and the atmosphere-hydrosphere during an abrupt catastrophic climate event. 10383,2009,4,4,A preliminary study on estimating extra-cellular nitrate reductase activities in estuarine systems,Enzymes catalyzing ammonium (NH(4)(+))/nitrate (NO(3)(-)) into nitrous oxide (N(2)O)/molecular nitrogen (N(2))| play critical roles in water quality management. The objective of this paper was to investigate the role of extra-cellular enzymes in cycling of nitrogen (N) in aquatic systems. It appears that N in estuaries| salt marshes| etc.| does not stay long enough to be available for uptake| thus| creating N limited conditions. This study showed that indigenous extra-cellular nitrate reductase along with others involved in N transformations in the waters/sediments of estuarine systems can cause complete removal of NH(4)(+) and NO(3)(-) from the waters and available NH(4)(+) and NO(3)(-) from the sediments. These results indicate that due to high extracellular nitrate reductase and other enzymes associated with N transformations in sediments/waters| substantial amounts of NH(4)(+) and NO(3)(-) can be quickly lost from the systems as N(2)O and/or nitric oxide (NO)| in turn| creating N limited conditions in estuarine systems. Such high activities of indigenous nitrate reductase and others are useful in removing readily bioavailable N from the systems| thereby avoidance of eutrophic conditions. However| they might contribute in increasing the N(2)O| a potent greenhouse gas with global warming potential (GWP) of 296| in the atmosphere. 9717,2009,3,3,A RATE-BASED METHOD FOR DESIGN OF REACTIVE GAS-LIQUID SYSTEMS,The current contribution described the rate-based method for process design of reactive gas-liquid systems in view of natural gas processing in energy technologies. The focus was on a new application of reactive absorption associated with CO(2) capture| especially in a pre-combustion mode. This mode required natural gas processing but offered the possibility of CO(2) Capture under advantageously high pressures which decreased the operational costs. The presented rate-based method was based on physical quantities which characterised the process| i.e. first of all species on the absorption flux as a function of the reactor height without the utilisation of empirical parameters. Therefore| the presented method was enough general and suitable for describing of any reactive absorption and desorption including the practical system CO(2)-H(2)S-amines-water-natural gas. The elementary equations of the method were given in Eqs. (1-9). A design approach| which utilized the described rate-based method| allowed precise process design of new purification and processing installations for natural gas and the operative optimization of the existing ones. Referring to the discussions from the IX KNT Rynek Gazu 2009 this paper presented the role of CO(2) in the global warming| its climatic and economic consequences and up-to-date proposals for political| economic| scientific and innovative solutions. 10241,2009,2,4,A Reduction in Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency due to Global Warming,In this report| we present the results from our recent experiments using 20 km-mesh and 60 km-mesh atmospheric general circulation models with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST). The results of the experiments consistently show a reduction in the global tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming. By the experiments with the models of different resolution and with different SST changes| we find that the reduction in the global tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming is a very robust feature. In contrast| the regional tropical cyclone frequency change varies a lot among the experiments with different SST change distribution. We find that the regional tropical cyclone frequency change is sensitive to relative SST change distribution. This suggests that the regional change is strongly affected by the change in tropical circulation and convective activity which is dominated by relative SST distribution patterns| and therefore| for a reliable projection of the regional change| a reliable projection of the pattern of SST change is vitally important. 9722,2009,4,2,A revised estimate of the processes contributing to global warming due to climate-carbon feedback,Coupled climate-carbon cycle models have shown that anthropogenic climate change has a negative effect on natural carbon sinks i.e.| climate change induces a reduction in both land and ocean carbon uptake leading to an additional amount of CO(2) in the atmosphere. Friedlingstein et al. (2006) concluded that such supplementary CO(2) in the atmosphere would lead to an additional climate warming in 2100. However| as given by Friedlingstein et al. (2006)| the role of non-CO(2) greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols was neglected both for their direct impact on climate and their indirect impact on the carbon cycle. Besides| the climate models used for IPCC AR4 accounted for the radiative forcing of all GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols but neglected the climate-carbon cycle feedback. In IPCC AR4| Meehl et al. (2007) attempted to reconcile these two methods in order to derive the global warming that would arise from both all anthropogenic forcings and climate-carbon cycle feedback. Here we show that the approach they used is wrong for several reasons. First| as previously done by Friedlingstein et al. (2006)| they considered that the warming is proportional to the change in atmospheric CO(2) concentration. This assumption leads to consider that the gain in temperature is equal to the gain in CO(2). However| because of the non-linearity of the climate response to increased CO(2) concentrations| the gain in temperature is lower than the gain in CO(2). Second| they assumed that the temperature gains of the climate-carbon cycle feedback generated by CO(2)| non-CO(2) GHGs and aerosols are all equal. We show here that| because of the specific spatial and temporal distribution of the radiative forcing exerted by those external perturbations| the temperature gains are all different. Based on our revised method| we found that| for the SRES A2 scenario| the projected global warming in 2100| due to increases in atmospheric CO(2)| non-CO(2) GHGs and anthropogenic sulphate aerosols| is 2.3-5.6 degrees C. This is accidentally nearly equal to the original one of Meehl et al. (2007) (2.4-5.6 degrees C). Citation: Cadule| P.| L. Bopp| and P. Friedlingstein (2009)| A revised estimate of the processes contributing to global warming due to climate-carbon feedback| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L14705| doi: 10.1029/2009GL038681. 979,2009,3,4,A Roadmap for Thermal Metrology,A provisional roadmap for thermal metrology was developed in Spring 2006 as part of the EUROMETiMERA activity toward increasing impact from national investment in European metrology R&D. This consisted of two parts: one addressing the influence of thermal metrology on society| industry| and science| and the other specifying the requirements of enabling thermal metrology to serve future needs. The roadmap represents the shared vision of the EUROMET TC Therm committee as to how thermal metrology should develop to meet future requirements over the next 15 years. It is important to stress that these documents are a first attempt to roadmap the whole of thermal metrology and will certainly need regular review and revision to remain relevant and useful to the community they seek to serve. The first part of the roadmap| "Thermal metrology for society| industry| and science|" identifies the main social and economic triggers driving developments in thermal metrology-notably citizen safety and security| new production technologies| environment and global climate change| energy| and health. Stemming from these triggers| key targets are identified that require improved thermal measurements. The second part of the roadmap| "Enabling thermal metrology to serve future needs" identifies another set of triggers| like global trade and interoperability| future needs in transport| and the earth radiation budget. Stemming from these triggers| key targets are identified| such as improved realizations and dissemination of the SI unit the kelvin| anchoring the kelvin to the Boltzmann constant| k(B)| and calculating thermal properties from first principles. To facilitate these outcomes| the roadmap identifies the technical advances required in thermal measurement standards. 964,2009,2,4,A Scale-Coupled Method for Simulation of the Formation and Evolution of Aeolian Dune Field,In this paper| a scale-coupled method for the formation and evolution of aeolian sand dune fields is proposed. It successfully reproduces various dune patterns and the whole development process of a dune field of several square kilometers during several decades Based on our simulations| we investigate the influence of sand supply| wind velocity| and wind direction to the dune patterns and dune speed in the dune field in quantity. Compared with the existing dune field model| we solve the correspondence problem in length-scale and time-scale between the simulated and the actual formation and evolution of a dune field. Our results on the variations of the dune speed with the dune height and the relation between the thickness of sand supply and the average dune height both agree with the results measured in field in quality and in quantity. Besides| we present the influence of wind velocity and sand diameter to the maximum dune height in a dune field and replay the 'solitary wave'-like behavior of two barchan dunes in a dune field. These results are not only beneficial to understand the dynamical characteristic of a dune field more comprehensively and more clearly| but also meaningful for further prediction of the migration trend of deserts under global climate change and the investigation of the aeolian geomorphology on Mars. 10201,2009,2,4,A short update on Koeppen climate shifts in Europe between 1901 and 2003,The question is investigated how far global warming in the period 1901-2003 will affect the region of Europe. For this purpose| changes of the climate zones that exist according to Koeppen will be analysed. The trends and outliers in terms of expansion and location of individual climate types are used as statistical indicators of climate change. The most important results of this study are: a) a significant increase of the extension of the climate types BS and Cr; b) a significant decrease of the extension of the climate types Dc and Ec; c) the largest changes are observed within the last two decades. These changes are discussed in relation to the mean conditions of temperature and precipitation. Moreover| significant correlations between the area extensions of climate types and the NAO index could be found. 10079,2009,3,3,A solution against well cement degradation under CO(2) geological storage environment,Capturing and storing carbon dioxide (CO(2)) underground for thousands of years is one way to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases| often associated with global warming. Leakage through wells is one of the major issues when storing CO(2) in depleted oil or gas reservoirs. CO(2)-injection candidates may be new wells| or old wells that are active| closed or abandoned. In all cases| it is critical to ensure that the long-term integrity of the storage wells is not compromised. The loss of well integrity may often be explained by the geochemical alteration of hydrated cement that is used to isolate the annulus across the producing/injection intervals in CO(2)-related wells. However| even before any chemical degradation| changes in downhole conditions due to supercritical CO(2) injections can also be responsible for cement debonding from the casing and/or from the formation| leading to rapid CO(2) leakage. A new cement with better CO(2) resistance is compared with conventional cement using experimental procedure and methodology simulating the interaction of set cement with injected| supercritical CO(2) under downhole conditions. Geochemical experimental data and a mechanical modeling approach are presented. The use of adding expanding property to this new cement to avoid microannulus development during the CO(2) injection is discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10208,2009,3,4,A spatial evaluation of forest biomass usage using GIS,We conducted a spatial evaluation of forest biomass usage using a geographic information system (CIS) for the Japanese town of Yusuhara. In Japan| over 60% of the land is covered with forest| of which at least 40% is artificial forest. However| because of high labor costs| the profitability of forestry is decreasing| so timber cultivation is not done to the extent that it could be| and thinning has to be subsidized. Under these circumstances| much of the forest is deteriorating. Most of the thinning is accounted for by throwaway thinning| in which the resulting wood is not used. However| with the steep rise in oil prices and the intensification of global warming concerns| expectations are rising for the use of biomass energy from thinned timber that has previously been discarded. If thinned timber| logging residues| and offcuts are utilized for biomass energy and their economic value becomes apparent| profitability will improve for both final cutting and thinning. And in addition to forestry activities being invigorated| it will be possible for some of the deteriorating forests (which have associated dangers such as landslides) to recover. However| using thinned timber and logging residues is problematic in that profitability is affected by harvesting costs. Harvesting costs are largely determined by geographic factors and are higher for more distant stands. Accordingly| in this article| operational costs for different stands are calculated using CIS and matched with total demand in the subject region. in addition| stands with lower operational costs are identified and an investigation of a highly feasible use of forest biomass is carried out. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9622,2009,3,3,A statistical analysis of the carbon dioxide capture process,Post combustion carbon dioxide (CO(2)) capture is one of the most commonly adopted technologies for reducing industrial CO(2) emissions| which is now an important goal given the widespread concern over global warming. Research on amine-based CO(2) capture has mainly focused on improving effectiveness and efficiency of the CO(2) capture process. Our research work focuses on Studying the relationships among the significant parameters influencing CO(2) production because an enhanced understanding of the intricate relationships among the parameters involved in the process is critical for improving efficiency of the CO(2) capture process. This paper presents a statistical study that explores the relationships among parameters involved in the amine-based post combustion CO(2) capture process at the International Centre for CO(2) Capture (ITC) located in Regina| Saskatchewan of Canada. A multiple regression technique has been applied for analysis of data collected at the CO(2) capture pilot plant at ITC. The parameters have been carefully selected to avoid issues of multicollinearity| and four mathematical models among the key parameters identified have been developed. The models have been tested| and accuracy of the models is found to be satisfactory. The models developed in this study describe part of the CO(2) capture process and can help to predict performance of the CO(2) capture process at ITC under different conditions. Some results from a preliminary validation process will also be presented. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9378,2009,3,3,A Study on Measures to Activate CDM Taking Project Risks into Consideration,Global warming has been recognized as a serious issue since the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was published in 2007. Under these circumstances| Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is expected to play a significant role| since it promises to reduce the economic gaps between developed and developing nations| as well as to economically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper| we first investigate how to evaluate risks in CDM. The real option theory is applied to quantify project risks in CDM| so that we can estimate the option values. In detail| a mathematical model of CDM is represented with a compound rainbow option| which includes continuous procedures from registration to investment. The evaluated results identify the condition of profitability| in which investment as CDM project is feasible. Our evaluation also quantifies how CDM projects become difficult to be executed due to the registration risk and the post-2012 risk. Then we investigate how to activate CDM projects. For this purpose| two options are considered: low interest loans by official financial institutions and the procurement of certified emission reductions| (CERs) by governments. The former relates to the low interest loans similar to environmental official development assistance (ODA)| which certainly ease the financial burden of initial investments in CDM projects. Now that CDM projects related to ODA are already registered by CDM executive board| this option is worth evaluation. The latter| meanwhile| aims at lowering risks by the secure purchase of CERs by governments. Since the governments of the Netherlands and Japan have already established a system to purchase CERs generated by CDM| we need to assess the effect of the option to activate CDM. Based on actual financial data on CDM| we finally investigate how these options could increase the number of executable CDM projects. 9523,2009,3,4,A study on the environmental aspects of hydrogen pathways in Korea,In this study| the environmental aspects of H(2) pathways are analyzed according to plausible H(2) production methods| production capacity| and distribution options in Korea| using life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The target H(2) pathways analyzed are H(2) via naphtha steam reforming (Naphtha SR)| H(2) via natural gas steam reforming (NG SR)| H(2) via liquefied petroleum gas steam reforming (LPG SR)| H(2) via water electrolysis with wind power (WE[Wind])| and H(2) via water electrolysis with Korea electricity mix (WE[KEM]). The results are then compared with those of conventional fuels (gasoline| diesel| and LPG) to identify which H(2) pathway has less environmental impact than the conventional fuels. Global warming (GW) impact| fossil fuel consumption (FFC) and regulated air emissions are studied to examine the environmental aspects of each fuel pathway. Given that H(2) technologies and infrastructures have yet to be fully commercialized| the environmental aspects of each pathway are analyzed in both their present status and a future scenario in 2015. LCA results show that WE[Wind] is superior regarding global warming potential (GWP)| FFC and regulated air emissions. When gasoline is replaced with H(2) from WE[Wind]| 99.8% and 99.9% of GWP and FFC can be reduced| respectively. Among the H(2) pathways based on fossil fuels| Naphtha SR[C] has the lowest values of GWP since the CO(2) capture equipment is attached to it. On the other hand| Naphtha SR[S] which is the station-type H(2) pathway does not have the CO(2) capture equipment. Naphtha SR[C] can reduce CO(2) emissions by 23.60 tons compared to gasoline over the entire life cycle of a vehicle. At present| Naphtha SR[C] appears to be environmentally efficient as H(2) conversion and infrastructure technologies have already been commercialized and are suitably developed in Korea. In 2015| however| among the H(2) pathways based on fossil fuels LPG SR[S] is expected to be the best pathway in terms of FFC and regulated air emissions| while Naphtha SR[C) will likely have lowest impact on GW by that time as well. (c) 2009 Professor T. Nejat Veziroglu. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9888,2009,3,4,A study on the temporal and spatial variability of absorbing aerosols using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument Aerosol Index data,Absorbing aerosols| especially mineral dust and black carbon| play key roles in climate change by absorbing solar radiation| heating the atmosphere| and contributing to global warming. In this paper| we first examine the consistency of the Aerosol Index (AI) product as measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments and then analyze these AI data sets to investigate the temporal and spatial variability of UVabsorbing aerosols. In contrast to the trend in aerosol optical depth found in the advanced very high-resolution radiometer data| no obvious long-term trend in absorbing aerosols is observed from the time series of AI records. The comparison between the mean annual cycle in the two data sets shows that the cycles agree very well both globally and regionally| indicating a consistency between the AI products from TOMS and OMI. Varimax rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of detrended| deseasonalized AI data proves to be successful in isolating major dust and biomass burning source regions| as well as dust transport. Finally| we find that large| individual events| such as the Kuwait oil fire and Australian smoke plum| are isolated in individual higher-order principal components. 9372,2009,3,2,A sustainable biomass industry for the North American Great Plains,Sustainable management of the world's land resources is a key to the provision of food for a more affluent global population and progress in other areas| such as improved water quality and mitigation of climate change. But the world's land resources are far too varied in their soils| native and managed vegetation| water resources and climatic norms and extremes to expect that a single| globally comprehensive strategy can be applied to meet such goals. Rather| lessons to guide programs aimed at achieving sustainability can be assembled from experience gained in discrete geographic| climatic and edaphic regions. One such region is the semiarid to subhumid North American Great Plains (hereafter NAGP)| a region that since settlement has experienced many periods of economic boom and many of economic distress. Originally a grassland| its vulnerability to soil erosion| environmental problems associated with the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides| and the overuse of surface and ground water is typical of other important grasslands converted to agriculture in South America and in the European and central Asiatic regions of the former Soviet Union. In addition| there is reason to believe that many of these grassland regions| most located in continental interiors| may be further stressed by climate changes caused by rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One action that can potentially contribute to climate change mitigation is the production of herbaceous biomass| for which the NAGP region is well suited. This paper reviews the geography| history and current condition of the NAGP and offers suggestions about how the agriculture| economy and environment of this and similar regions around the world can be made more sustainable and able to contribute to a reduction in carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions and consequent global warming. 10006,2009,3,3,A transition toward a market expansion phase: Policies for promoting wind power in Taiwan,Considering the significant issues oil global warming and environmental protection| the energy sector needs a long-term policy| by which renewable energies gradually replace conventional fossil fuels. In terms of an energy system| the development of renewable energies implies a challenge to existing energies like fossil fuels and nuclear power that have been for decades equipped With Sound infrastructure and regulations. And a transformation of the energy system cannot expect any achievement without overcoming considerable opposition from vested interests involved with the fossil fuels technologies. Analyses of the "technological system" can serve as a guide to explore how the phase-in and phase-out of actors in the energy system| the formation of the networks| and the establishment of policies come to work on development potentials of each function in the energy system. This article| by taking wind power for example| first investigates into the analytical framework of the technological system to analyze developmental strategies for the wind power evolution in Taiwan. Besides| a comparative analysis is drawn from the development of wind power between Germany and Sweden (a positive and an unsatisfactory example) to understand what essentials policy makers Should consider for expanding wind power utilization in Taiwan. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9537,2009,4,4,A unified approach to environmental systems modeling,The paper considers the differences between hypothetico-deductive and inductive modeling: between modelers who put their primary trust in their scientific intuition about the nature of an environmental model and tend to produce quite complex computer simulation models; and those who prefer to rely on the analysis of observational data to identify the simplest form of model that can represent these data. The tension that sometimes arises because of the different philosophical outlooks of these two modeling groups can be harmful because it tends to fractionate the effort that goes into the investigation of important environmental problems| such as global warming. In an attempt to improve this situation| the paper will outline a new Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) approach to modeling that tries to meld together the best aspects of these two modeling philosophies in order to develop a unified approach that combines the hypothetico-deductive virtues of good scientific intuition and simulation modeling with the pragmatism of inductive data-based modeling| where more objective inference from data is the primary driving force. In particular| it demonstrates the feasibility of a new method for complex simulation model emulation| in which the methodological tools of DBM modeling are used to develop a reduced dynamic order model that represents the 'dominant modes' of the complex simulation model. In this form| the 'dynamic emulation' model can be compared with the DBM model obtained directly from the analysis of real data and any tensions between the two modeling approaches may be relaxed to produce models that suit multiple modeling objectives. 10174,2009,4,4,A View of Earth System Model Development,This paper gives a definition of earth system model and shows three development phases of it| including physical climate system model| earth climate system model| and earth system model| based on an investigation of climate system models in the world. It provides an expatiation on the strategic significance of future development of earth system model| an introduction of some representative scientific research plans on development of earth system model home and abroad| and a review of its status and trends based on the models of the fourth assessment report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Some suggestions on future development of earth system model in China are given| which are expected to be helpful to advance the development. 9576,2009,3,3,Abatement of perfluorocompounds with microwave plasma in atmospheric pressure environment,Perfluorocompounds emitted by the semiconductor industry are global warming gases. These gases need to be removed efficiently because of their strong absorption of infrared radiation and long atmospheric lifetimes which cause the global warming effect. In this study| microwave argon plasma operating at atmospheric pressure was investigated experimentally for various operating conditions including microwave power| total gas flow rate| initial concentration| and additive gas. The mechanisms of perfluorocompounds decomposition were studied by the plasma emission spectrum. Under the optimum condition| the destruction and removal efficiency of CF(4) Could reach up to 98.4%. The emission spectrum analysis indicated that the existence of the O or OH radicals could enhance the CF(4) decomposition by adding suitable volume of O(2) or H(2)O. The mechanisms of CF(4) decomposition are that the electron| O and OH radicals all associated with CF(4) conversion| it has the sequence that enough effective electrons reacted with CF(4) to form CF(i) radicals| O and OH radicals further reacted with CF(i) radicals to convert CF(4) into CO(2) and HF (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. 10140,2009,4,4,Accelerated increases observed for hydrochlorofluorocarbons since 2004 in the global atmosphere,Tropospheric accumulation rates of the three most abundant hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) were up to two times faster during 2007 than measured in 2003-2004. Tropospheric chlorine from HCFCs increased at 10 pptCl/yr during 2006-2007| up from 6 pptCl/yr in 2003-2004| and offset declines in chlorine from other anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances in 2007 by approximately one-third. Derived global emissions for HCFCs increased by up to 60% since 2004| and| for HCFC-142b| emissions during 2007 were two times larger than projected recently. Measured tropospheric distributions suggest a shift in HCFC emissions to lower latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. These changes coincide with exponential increases in developing country production and consumption and decreases in other countries. When weighted by direct| 100-yr global warming potentials| HCFC emissions in 2007 amounted to 0.78 GtCO(2)-equivalents| or 30% larger than the average during 2000-2004| and were approximately 2.6% of fossilfuel and cement related CO(2) emissions. Citation: Montzka| S. A.| B. D. Hall| and J. W. Elkins (2009)| Accelerated increases observed for hydrochlorofluorocarbons since 2004 in the global atmosphere| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L03804| doi: 10.1029/2008GL036475. 9445,2009,2,4,Accelerated soil CO(2) efflux after conversion from secondary oak forest to pine plantation in southeastern China,Soil respiration (R (s)) is an important component of the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems| and changes in soil respiration with land cover alteration can have important implications for regional carbon balances. In southeastern China (Xiashu Experimental Forest| Jiangsu Province)| we used an automated LI-8100 soil CO(2) flux system to quantify diurnal variation of soil respiration in a secondary oak forest and a pine plantation. We found that soil respiration in the pine plantation was significantly higher than that in the secondary oak forest. There were similar patterns of soil respiration throughout the day in both the secondary oak forest and the pine plantation during our 7-month study (March-September 2005). The maximum of R (s) occurred between 4:00 pm and 7:00 pm. The diurnal variations of R (s) were usually out of phase with soil surface (0.5 cm) temperature (T (g)). However| annual variation in R (s) correlated with surface soil temperature. Soil respiration reached to a maximum in June| and decreased thereafter. The Q(10) of R (s) in the secondary oak forest was significantly higher than that in the pine plantation. The higher Q(10) value in the secondary oak forest implied that it might release more CO(2) than the pine plantation under a global-warming scenario. Our results indicated that land-use change from secondary forest to plantation may cause a significant increase in CO(2) emission| and reduce the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in southeastern China. 880,2009,2,4,Accelerated Warming and Emergent Trends in Fisheries Biomass Yields of the World's Large Marine Ecosystems,Information on the effects of global climate change on trends in global fisheries biomass yields has been limited in spatial and temporal scale. Results are presented of a global study of the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the last 25 years on the fisheries yields of 63 large marine ecosystems (LMEs) that annually produce 80% of the world's marine fisheries catches. Warming trends were observed in 61 LMEs around the globe. In 18 of the LMEs| rates of SST warming were two to four times faster during the past 25 years than the globally averaged rates of SST warming reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007. Effects of warming on fisheries biomass yields were greatest in the fast-warming northern Northeast Atlantic LMEs| where increasing trends in fisheries biomass yields were related to zooplankton biomass increases. In contrast| fisheries biomass yields of LMEs in the fast-warming| more southerly reaches of the Northeast Atlantic were declining in response to decreases in zooplankton abundance. The LMEs around the margins of the Indian Ocean| where SSTs were among the world's slowest warming| revealed a consistent pattern of fisheries biomass increases during the past 25 years| driven principally by human need for food security from fisheries resources. As a precautionary approach toward more sustainable fisheries utilization| management measures to limit the total allowable catch through a cap-and-sustain approach are suggested for the developing nations recently fishing heavily on resources of the Agulhas Current| Somali Current| Arabian Sea| and Bay of Bengal LMEs. 10185,2009,2,4,Acid rock drainage and climate change,Rainfall events cause both increases and decreases in acid and metals concentrations and their loadings from mine wastes| and unmined mineralized areas| into receiving streams based on data from 3 mines sites in the United States and other sites outside the US. Gradual increases in concentrations occur during long dry spells and sudden large increases are observed during the rising limb of the discharge following dry spells (first flush). By the time the discharge peak has occurred| concentrations are usually decreased| often to levels below those of pre-storm conditions and then they slowly rise again during the next dry spell. These dynamic changes in concentrations and loadings are related to the dissolution of soluble salts and the flushing out of waters that were concentrated by evaporation. The underlying processes| pyrite oxidation and host rock dissolution| do not end until the pyrite is fully weathered| which can take hundreds to thousands of years. These observations can be generalized to predict future conditions caused by droughts related to El Nino and climate change associated with global warming. Already| the time period for dry summers is lengthening in the western US and rainstorms are further apart and more intense when they happen. Consequently| flushing of inactive or active mine sites and mineralized but unmined sites will cause larger sudden increases in concentrations that will be an ever increasing danger to aquatic life with climate change. Higher average concentrations will be observed during longer low-flow periods. Remediation efforts will have to increase the capacity of engineered designs to deal with more extreme conditions| not average conditions of previous years. Published by Elsevier B.V. 10048,2009,2,4,Adaptability of chickpea in northern high latitude areas-Maturity responses,Global climate warming may allow 'warm-season' chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) to be better adapted to the cool| high latitude areas of the world. Chickpea has a strong indeterminacy and continued growth of vegetative tissues during the later part of the reproduction period often delays maturity in high latitude areas. This study was conducted to determine the adaptability of chickpea and evaluate the relative importance of changing environments and optimizing crop management options in affecting crop maturity. Four cultivars were grown on barley and wheat stubble| and on summerfallow using rates of 0| 28| 64| 84| and 112 kg N ha(-1) of fertilizer with and without Rhizobium inoculant at six environments in Saskatchewan| Canada| during 2004-2006. Maturity of chickpea ranged from 91 d in 2006 to 136 din 2004. About 90% of the variation in maturity was due to environments| with the remaining variation related to cultivars| seedbed conditions| and soil fertility. The cultivars 'Amit' and 'CDC-Anna' matured 2-7 d earlier than 'CDC-Frontier' and 'CDC-Xena' averaged across diverse environments. Under cool and wet environments| chickpea grown on cereal stubble matured 7-15 d earlier than those grown on summerfallow; chickpea grown at moderate rates of N fertilizer (28-84 kg ha(-1)) without Rhizobium inoculant matured 15 d earlier than the crop receiving no-N fertilizer with or without inoculation. Under dry and hot environments| only marginal differences in maturity were observed among applied treatments. Our results indicate that chickpea maturity can be advanced as many as 15 days which can help minimize the risk of crop failure due to immaturity; this is achievable through the adoption of early-maturing cultivars| use of moderate rates of N fertilizer| and selection of cereal stubble as preferential seedbed. With current genotypes of chickpea| there is still considerably high risk of adapting this 'warm-season' crop in northern high latitude areas because of large environmental variability| but this risk might be reduced with continued global warming. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10360,2009,2,4,Adaptation and Change with Global Warming Emerging Spatial World Structure and Transportation Impacts,Today| the governing spatial structure of Earth is that of a ribbon around the globe. Economic activity and habitation are mostly limited to this developed ribbon. As the polar ice retreats and better ships and remote sensing are being developed| the habitable edge of the world is moving ever farther into the Arctic| leading to the emergence of a new spatial structure of Earth: the semiglobe. In a semiglobe system| the Arctic is no longer the most remote area of Earth but is its center. The practical consequences of polar ice retreat are notably Arctic resource development and Arctic shipping routes. The largest impact on global marine transportation occurs as all-year shipping develops in the Arctic| eventually leading to-because of shorter distances-most marine transportation between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific going through the Arctic Ocean. This has important consequences for transportation| security| and natural resource use. The Arctic sea routes also hold geopolitical importance as alternative routes| for example| if conflicts at the Panama or Suez Canal interrupt intercontinental shipping. This gives added importance to the gates to the Arctic Ocean and surrounding nations. 10386,2009,4,4,Adapting Travel Models and Urban Models to Forecast Greenhouse Gases in California,This paper reviews the California Global Warming Solutions Act| which motivates both urban modeling by countywide agencies and the modeling of energy use in buildings and travel and the resultant greenhouse gases (GHGs). The authors identify principles for urban models and travel models| as applied to countywide land use plans and transportation plans. Two urban models| UPlan (a simple one) and PECAS (a complex one) were developed by the authors and are outlined here. The energy use and GHG impacts calculator| which will take as an input floor space data from UPlan or PECAS| is described. The methods used in this calculator and how it will be applied within the two urban models are described. The UPlan implementation is described in detail and an example given. Finally| the limits of UPlan are identified and an explanation for how PECAS may be able to perform all of the economic evaluations called for in the California Climate Act is provided. 9353,2009,2,4,Adaptive Change in Intra-Winter Distribution of Relatively Cold Events to East Asian Warming,For the past few decades| daily winter temperatures over East Asia have been higher and less variable. Generally| these simple temperature-distribution shifts should lead to a decrease in the occurrence of cold extremes| but observations of the changes in the extremes are often complicated. In the present study| the change in the occurrence of relatively cold events (daily temperature anomaly| <= -2 sigma for that season) in each winter monsoon over East Asia was examined using ground observations of daily temperature for the period 1954 - 2006. The time-mean temperature for each winter was subtracted to remove the interannual variability and long-term trend. Our analyses reveal that the intraseasonal temperature distribution over East Asia has changed with a negative skew| and the frequency of the relatively cold events has slightly increased (by 0.09 days per decade) over the past few decades| oil an average| for the entire analysis domain (east of 105 degrees E| 122 stations). In Particular| the increase occurs more dominantly (82% of the total stations) in regions north of 40 degrees N where a stronger warming has progressed. The frequency of relatively cold events is found to be significantly correlated with the variance of the Siberian high and the mean of the Arctic Oscillation. The increasing trend in the frequency of relatively cold events may serve to partly countervail the decrease (-1.12 days per decade) in the frequency of absolute cold events (daily temperature anomaly| <= 2 sigma overall) across the entire observation period. 9696,2009,4,4,Adaptive management of natural systems using fuzzy logic,Hypotheses about how management practices influence ecosystem services can be tested using a crisp| probability-based| or fuzzy decision rule. The correct decision rule depends on whether: (I) the observed state of an ecosystem service (x) is non-stochastic or stochastic; (2) the true state of the ecosystem service (y) is non-stochastic or stochastic; and (3) the relationship between x and y is deterministic| stochastic| or uncertain. Crisp and probability-based decision rules are not appropriate when the relationship between y and x is uncertain in the sense that the decision maker is unable or unwilling to specify conditional probabilities of y given x. Under these conditions| a fuzzy decision rule is appropriate. A hypothetical case study is used to illustrate how a fuzzy decision rule is used to test hypotheses about whether selective cutting of timber provides greater or less forest biodiversity than clearcutting of timber. The case study describes how to incorporate the decision rule in an active adaptive management framework to sequentially test the extent to which changes over time in other factors influencing ecosystem services| such as greater spread of invasive species due to global warming| alter the efficacy of timber management practices. The fuzzy adaptive management decision rule can be generalized to account for the effects of management practices on multiple ecosystem services. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9522,2009,3,2,Adiabatic burning velocity of H(2)-O(2) mixtures diluted with CO(2)/N(2)/Ar,Global warming due to CO(2) emissions has led to the projection of hydrogen as an important fuel for future. A lot of research has been going on to design combustion appliances for hydrogen as fuel. This has necessitated fundamental research on combustion characteristics of hydrogen fuel. In this work| a combination of experiments and computational simulations was employed to study the effects of diluents (CO(2)| N(2)| and Ar) on the laminar burning velocity of premixed hydrogen/oxygen flames using the heat flux method. The experiments were conducted to measure laminar burning velocity for a range of equivalence ratios at atmospheric pressure and temperature (300 K) with reactant mixtures containing varying concentrations of CO(2)| N(2)| and Ar as diluents. Measured burning velocities were compared with computed results obtained from one-dimensional laminar premixed flame code PREMIX with detailed chemical kinetics and good agreement was obtained. The effectiveness of diluents; in reduction of laminar burning velocity for a given diluent concentration is in the increasing order of argon| nitrogen| carbon dioxide. This may be due to increased capabilities either to quench the reaction zone by increased specific heat or due to reduced transport rates. The lean and stoichiometric H(2)/O(2)/CO(2) flames with 65% CO(2) dilution exhibited cellular flame structures. Detailed three-dimensional simulation was performed to understand lean H(2)/O(2)/CO(2) cellular flame structure and cell count from computed flame matched well with the experimental cellular flame. (C) 2009 Professor T. Nejat Veziroglu. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 997,2009,4,4,Aerosol indirect forcing in a global model with particle nucleation,The number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) formed as a result of anthropogenic emissions is a key uncertainty in the study of aerosol indirect forcing and global climate change. Here| we use a global aerosol model that includes an empirical boundary layer nucleation mechanism| the use of primary-emitted sulfate particles to represent sub-grid scale nucleation| as well as binary homogeneous nucleation to explore how nucleation affects the CCN concentration and the first aerosol indirect effect (AIE). The inclusion of the boundary layer nucleation scheme increases the global average CCN concentrations in the boundary layer by 31.4% when no primary-emitted sulfate particles are included and by 5.3% when they are included. Particle formation with the boundary layer nucleation scheme decreases the first indirect forcing over ocean| and increases the first indirect forcing over land when primary sulfate particles are included. This suggests that whether particle formation from aerosol nucleation increases or decreases aerosol indirect effects largely depends on the relative change of primary particles and SO(2) emissions from the preindustrial to the present day atmosphere. Including primary-emitted sulfate particle significantly increases both the anthropogenic fraction of CCN concentrations and the first aerosol indirect forcing. The forcing from various treatments of aerosol nucleation ranges from -1.22 to -2.03 w/m(2). This large variation shows the importance of better quantifying aerosol nucleation mechanisms for the prediction of CCN concentrations and aerosol indirect effects. 874,2009,2,3,Agro-ecological field vulnerability evaluation and climate change impacts in Souma area (Iran)| using MicroLEIS DSS,Soil erosion and contamination are two main desertification indices or land degradation agents in agricultural areas. Global climate change consequence is a priority to predict global environmental change impacts on these degradation risks. This agro-ecological approach can be especially useful when formulating soil specific agricultural practices based on the spatial variability of soils and related resources to reverse environmental degradation. Raizal and Pantanal models within the new MicroLEIS framework| the Ero&Con package| are database/expert system evaluation approach for assessing limitations to land use| or vulnerability of the land to specified agricultural degradation risks. This study was performed in Souma area with approximately 4100 ha extension in the North-West of Iran (west Azarbaijan). Based on 35 sampling soils| Typic Xerofluvents| Typic Calcixerepts| Fluventic Haploxerepts and Fluventic Endaquepts were classified as main subgroups. Climatological data| referred to temperature and precipitation of more than 36 consecutive years were collected from Urmieh station reports and stored in monthly Climate Database CDBm| as a major component of MicroLEIS DSS (CDBm) program. Climate data for a hypothetical future scenario were collected from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports for the 2080s period. The evaluation approach predicts that attainable water erosion vulnerability classes were none (V1) very low (V2) and moderately low (V4) in the total of 72%| 13% and 15% of the Souma area| respectively and they will not affected by climate change. On contrary| attainable wind erosion vulnerability classes will increase. Also| phosphorous and heavy metal contamination vulnerability risks will not differ in two compared scenarios while nitrogen and pesticides vulnerability classes will be improved. 9464,2009,3,3,Air pollution policies in Europe: efficiency gains from integrating climate effects with damage costs to health and crops,Emissions of air pollutants cause damage to health and crops| but several air pollutants also have an effect on climate through radiative forcing. We investigate efficiency gains achieved by integrating climate impacts of air pollutants into air quality strategies for the EU region. The pollutants included in this study are SO(2)| NH(3)| VOC| CO| NO(x)| black carbon| organic carbon| PM(2.5)| and CH(4). We illustrate the relative importance of climate change effects compared to damage to health and crops| as well as monetary gains of including climate change contributions. The analysis considers marginal abatement costs and compares air quality and climate damage in Euros. We optimize abatement policies with respect to both climate and health impacts| which imply implementing all measures that yield a net benefit. The efficiency gains of the integrated policy are in the order of 2.5 billion Euros| compared to optimal abatement based on health and crop damage only| justifying increased abatement efforts of close to 50%. Climate effect of methane is the single most important factor. if climate change is considered on a 20- instead of a 100-year time-scale| the efficiency gain almost doubles. our results indicate that air pollution policies should be supplemented with climate damage considerations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10244,2009,2,2,Air pollution| greenhouse gases and climate change: Global and regional perspectives,Greenhouse gases (GHGs) warm the Surface and the atmosphere with significant implications for rainfall| retreat of glaciers and sea ice| sea level| among other factors. About 30 years ago| it was recognized that the increase in tropospheric ozone from air pollution (NO(x)| CO and others) is an important greenhouse forcing term. In addition| the recognition of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) on stratospheric ozone and its climate effects linked chemistry and climate strongly. What is less recognized| however| is a comparably major global problem dealing with air pollution. Until about ten years ago| air pollution was thought to be just an urban or a local problem. But new data have revealed that air pollution is transported across continents and ocean basins due to fast long-range transport| resulting in trans-oceanic and trans-continental plumes of atmospheric brown Clouds (ABCs) containing sub micron size particles| i.e.| aerosols. ABCs intercept Sunlight by absorbing as well as reflecting it| both of which lead to a large surface dimming. The dimming effect is enhanced further because aerosols may nucleate more cloud droplets| which makes the clouds reflect More solar radiation. The dimming has a Surface cooling effect and decreases evaporation of moisture from the surface| thus slows down the hydrological cycle. On the other hand| absorption of solar radiation by black carbon and some organics increase atmospheric hearing and tend to amplify greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. ABCs are concentrated in regional and mega-city hot spots. Long-range transport from these hot spots causes widespread plumes over the adjacent oceans. Such a pattern Of regionally concentrated Surface dimming and atmospheric Solar heating| accompanied by widespread dimming over the oceans| gives rise to large regional effects. Only during the last decade| we have begun to comprehend the surprisingly large regional impacts. In S. Asia and N. Africa| the large north-south gradient in the ABC dimming has altered both the north-south gradients in sea Surface temperatures and land-ocean contrast in surface temperatures| which in turn slow down the monsoon circulation and decrease rainfall over the continents. On the other hand| heating by black carbon warms the atmosphere at elevated levels from 2 to 6 kin| where most tropical glaciers are located| thus strengthening the effect of GHGs on retreat of snow packs and glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan glaciers. Globally| the surface cooling effect of ABCs may have masked as Much 47% of the global warming by greenhouse gases| with an uncertainty range of 20-80%. This presents a dilemma since efforts to curb air pollution may unmask the ABC cooling effect and enhance the surface warming. Thus efforts to reduce GHGs and air pollution should be done under one common framework. The uncertainties in our understanding of the ABC effects are large| but we are discovering new ways in which human activities are changing the climate and the environment. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9791,2009,3,4,All-water-blown Integral Skin Foam Prepared by Novel Polypropylene Glycols,Integral skin foam (designated ISF) consisting of core (cellular foam) and solid skin is produced in one operation. Since the recommendation of Montreal Protocol in 1987 to phase out five CFCs| the three major possibilities for producing ISF studied in the past include replacement of CFC with HCFC| HFC| or water. Recently| the use of HCFC-141b for blowing agent was also phased out at the end of 2003| and HFCs have been criticized for their high Global Warming Potential (GWP). However| it is difficult to produce a skin layer using water as the blowing agent because carbon dioxide (CO(2))| which is generated by an isocyanate-water reaction is unlikely to condense at the mold surface. We have developed a new technology to produce all-water-blown ISF. A novel polypropylene glycol| which contains an extremely small amount of by-products (monool) and has narrow molecular weight distribution compared with conventional polypropylene glycols was applied to this new system. In case of applying this novel polypropylene glycol in all-water-blown ISF system| it is easy to control the balance between the gelling reaction and blowing reaction of ISF. Therefore| we have been able to obtain a tight skin layer like HFC-blown ISF. 9637,2009,3,3,Allocation issues in LCA methodology: a case study of corn stover-based fuel ethanol,Facing the threat of oil depletion and climate change| a shift from fossil resources to renewables is ongoing to secure long-term low carbon energy supplies. In view of the carbon dioxide reduction targets agreed upon in the Kyoto protocol| bioethanol has become an attractive option for one energy application| as transport fuel. Many studies on the LCA of fuel ethanol have been conducted| and the results vary to a large extent. In most of these studies| only one type of allocation is applied. However| the effect of allocation on outcomes is of crucial importance to LCA as a decision supporting tool. This is only addressed in a few studies to a limited extent. Moreover| most of the studies mainly focus on fossil energy use and GHG emissions. In this paper| a case study is presented wherein a more complete set of impact categories is used. Land use has been left out of account as only hectare data would be given which is obviously dominated by agriculture. Moreover| different allocation methods are applied to assess the sensitivity of the outcomes for allocation choices. This study focuses on the comparison of LCA results from the application of different allocation methods by presenting an LCA of gasoline and ethanol as fuels and with two types of blends of gasoline with ethanol| all used in a midsize car. As a main second-generation application growing fast in the USA| corn stover-based ethanol is chosen as a case study. The life cycles of the fuels include gasoline production| corn and stover agriculture| cellulosic ethanol production| blending ethanol with gasoline to produce E10 (10% of ethanol) and E85 (85% of ethanol)| and finally the use of gasoline| E10| E85| and ethanol. In this study| a substantially broader set of eight environmental impacts is covered. LCA results appear to be largely dependent on the allocation methods rendered. The level of abiotic depletion and ozone layer depletion decrease when replacing gasoline by ethanol fuels| irrespective of the allocation method applied| while the rest of the impacts except global warming potential are larger. The results show a reduction of global warming potential when mass/energy allocation is applied; in the case of economic allocation| it gives contrary results. In the expanded systems| global warming potential is significantly reduced comparing to the ones from the allocated systems. A contribution analysis shows that car driving| electricity use for cellulase enzyme production| and ethanol conversion contribute largely to global warming potential from the life cycle of ethanol fuels. The reason why the results of global warming potential show a reverse trend is that the corn/stover allocation ratio shifts from 7.5 to 1.7 when shifting from economic allocation to mass/energy allocation. When mass/energy allocation is applied| both more credits (CO(2) uptake) and more penalties (N(2)O emission) in agriculture are allocated to stover compared to the case of economic allocation. However| more CO(2) is taken up than N(2)O (in CO(2) eq.) emitted. Hence| the smaller the allocation ratio is between corn and stover| the lower the share of the overall global warming emissions being allocated to ethanol will be. In the system expansion approach| global warming potentials are significantly reduced| resulting in the negative values in all cases. This implies that the system expansion results are comparable to one another because they make the same cutoffs but not really to the results related to mass| energy| and economic value-based allocated systems. The choice of the allocation methods is essential for the outcomes| especially for global warming potential in this case. The application of economic allocation leads to increased GWP when replacing gasoline by ethanol fuels| while reduction of GWP is achieved when mass/energy allocation is used as well as in the system where biogenic CO(2) is excluded. Ethanol fuels are better options than gasoline when abiotic depletion and ozone layer depletion are concerned. In terms of other environmental impacts| gasoline is a better option| mainly due to the emissions of nutrients and toxic substances connected with agriculture. A clear shift of problems can be detected: saving fossil fuels at the expense of emissions related to agriculture| with GHG benefits depending on allocation choices. The overall evaluation of these fuel options| therefore| depends very much on the importance attached to each impact category. This study focuses only on corn stover-based ethanol as one case. Further studies may include other types of cellulosic feedstocks (i.e.| switchgrass or wood)| which require less intensive agricultural practice and may lead to better environmental performance of fuel ethanol. Furthermore| this study shows that widely used but different allocation methods determine outcomes of LCA studies on biofuels. This is an unacceptable situation from a societal point of view and a challenge from a scientific point of view. The results from applying just one allocation method are not sufficient for decision making. Comparison of different allocation methods is certainly of crucial importance. A broader approach beyond LCA for the analysis of biorefinery systems with regard to energy conservation| environmental impact| and cost-benefit will provide general indications on the sustainability of bio-based productions. 9854,2009,2,4,Alpine-subalpine species richness of the Romanian Carpathians and the current conservation status of rare species,In the context of global warming| alpine-subalpine plant species are some of the most threatened. The distribution of these species in the Romanian Carpathians is centralized and analyzed for the first time. A network with 472 grid cells of 12.5 x 11.5 km (6' latitude x 10' longitude) has been used to register the distribution of 550 selected high mountain taxa. The analysis starts with a brief description of the most important determinants of alpine-subalpine species richness| continues with a comparison between the different sub groups of the Romanian Carpathians and a discussion of their particularities. The purpose of the paper is to identify areas in need of protection as well as rare and vulnerable species outside the network of protected areas. A description of the current network of protected areas from the Romanian Carpathians is provided| with ideas for improvement. 10338,2009,3,2,Alternative primary energy for power desalting plants in Kuwait: the nuclear option I,Some countries (e.g. Korea| China| India| Pakistan| Japan) were forced to adopt the nuclear energy option to generate electric power Ep (by nuclear power plants NPP) and desalt seawater D (by nuclear desalination ND) due to the rising cost of fossil fuel and its insecure supply. The increase of fuel oil consumption and cost (more than $100 per barrel) motivate other countries| even oil-exporting countries| to look for cheaper alternatives to produce both Ep and D. The locally consumed oil in these Countries is deducted from its reserves and/or decreases its income. In addition| the green house gases (GHG) emission resulting from burning fossil fuel contributes to global warming and adversely affects the environment. In Kuwait and other Gulf cooperation countries (GCC)| huge amounts of fuel (oil and natural gas) are consumed by co-generation power desalting plants (CPDP) to produce Ep and D. The use of this fuel to produce Ep and D cannot be expanded indefinitely as the oil supplies are finite and dwindling. Thus| less costly and sustainable new sources of energy such as solar| geothermal| wave|and wind energies are explored. The share of usage for these Sources are so little and their wide expansions in the next decade are doubtful. Presently| nuclear energy is economically viable| and is a large-scale alternative to fossil fuel for generations of Ep and D. The use of nuclear energy (NE) raises many concerns about its safety| high capital cost| and radiation effects on Surroundings and workers in the short and long term. The question raised should not be either to accept NPP or not| as it may be the only choice we have. The real questions are: how and when NPP will be inherently safe| economical| and when call it be applied safely in Countries at different stages of development. Nuclear energy can present a Sustainable way to produce Ep and D if its standing problems can be resolved. It can become a significant option for meeting the future world energy needs at low cost and in an environmentally acceptable mariner. In this paper| the prospects Of using nuclear cogeneation power desalting plants (N-CPDP) in Kuwait and some of the GCC are discussed. The conditions required to build NCPDP and its associated problems are Outlined and discussed. 10138,2009,2,4,Altitudinal genetic variation in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. I: Height growth| shoot phenology| and frost damage in seedlings,The altitudinal pattern of genetic variation in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. populations was explored for seedling height growth| frost damage| grass-stage| and phenological stage of the terminal provenance test was conducted with open-pollinated seed from 13 populations collected along an altitudinal transect (3000-3600 m) at the National Park Pico de Tancitaro| Michoacan| center-west Mexico. Height growth of seedlings in a nursery was assessed at seven and 18 months of age. Frost damage at -15 degrees C was evaluated in laboratory at 18 months of age; proportion of plants that had left grass-stage and stage of shoot development was assessed at the age of 22 months. Significant differences among provenances (P < 0.0001) were detected for all of the evaluated characters. The variation among populations was structured as a moderate altitudinal cline| with populations from lower altitudes showing larger height growth in seedlings| larger proportion of frost damages| fewer seedlings in grass-stage and more seedlings with developed shoot| whereas in populations from higher altitudes| seedlings exhibiting shorter plant height| lower percentages of frost damage| more seedlings with unbroken grass-stage| and fewer seedlings with advanced shoot development were displayed. Options for seed and seedling movement along the altitudinal gradient are discussed under the scope of reforestation| aiming at ecological restoration| conservation of forest genetic resources| and assisted migration considering global warming. We suggest delineation of two altitudinal seed zones (Zone 1: 3000-3350 m; Zone II 3350-3700 m). (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 799,2009,2,4,Altitudinal range shift detected through seedling survival of Ceiba aesculifolia in an area under the influence of an urban heat island,Changes in the position along the elevational gradient for plant species are a predicted consequence of global and local climate change. Within the area of influence of cities it is necessary| for conservation and ecological restoration| to understand the effect on plant communities of climate change and urban heat islands| that can increase the temperature around cities as much as 8 C when compared with peri-urban rural areas. We explored patterns of seedling survival of Ceiba aesculifolia| a tropical tree species| along an altitudinal gradient in a slope facing the city of Morelia| in Michoacan| Mexico| because the city has followed a trend of increasing mean annual temperatures with a difference of at least 4 C when compared with the surrounding rural areas. The highest survival was found between 2200 and 2230 m a.s.l. (100% after 1 year of planting and 75% after 2 years)| 160 m higher than the altitudinal limit of the remnant adult trees in the study area| and close to the highest limit reported for the species at a regional scale (2200 m a.s.l.). There was a significant effect of altitude on survival among experimental plots (P < 0.0001) and the interaction between elevation and distance from the north side of the experimental area was significant (P=0.017). For restoring populations of C. aesculifolia within our study region| assisted migration through the establishment of populations at the elevational limit or higher than its historical range might be necessary in areas close to cities that already are under the effects of increased temperatures| but might be necessary also in rural areas for ameliorating the expected effects of global climate change in tropical rural areas. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10058,2009,5,4,An anachronistic Clarkforkian mammal fauna from the Paleocene Fort Union Formation (Great Divide Basin| Wyoming| USA),The Clarkforkian (latest Paleocene) North American Land Mammal Age (NALMA) remains a relatively poorly sampled biostratigraphic interval at the close of the Paleocene epoch that is best known from the Bighorn Basin of northwestern Wyoming. A period of global warming between the cooler early and middle Paleocene and the extreme warming of the early Eocene| the Clarkforkian witnessed significant floral and faunal turnover with important ramifications for the development of Cenozoic biotas. The combination of warming global climates with mammalian turnover (including likely intercontinental dispersals) marks the Clarkforkian and the succeeding Wasatchian (Earliest Eocene) NALMAs as periods of intense interest to paleobiologists and other earth scientists concerned with aspects of biostratigraphy and with the biotic effects of climate change in the past. In this paper we describe a new Clarkforkian mammalian fauna from the Great Divide Basin of southwestern Wyoming with some surprising faunal elements that differ from the typical suite of taxic associations found in Clarkforkian assemblages of the Bighorn Basin. Several different scenarios are explored to explain this "anachronistic" assemblage of mammals from southern Wyoming in relation to the typical patterns found in northern Wyoming| including the concepts of basin-margin faunas| latitudinal and climatic gradients| and a chronologically transitional fauna. We suggest that the observed faunal and biostratigraphic differences between southern and northern Wyoming faunas most likely result from latitudinal and associated climatic differences| with floral and faunal changes being reflected somewhat earlier in the south during this period of marked climate change. 10240,2009,2,3,An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate,The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law| part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However| due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950-2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study| we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide. 1039,2009,2,4,An Estimate of Population Impacted by Climate Change Along the U. S. Coast,In estimating the climate change impacts on coastal regions| critical questions such as how many people live within one kilometer or below three-meter elevation along the coast are often raised. Surprisingly| answers to these questions are not available in the literature. This type of fine-scale estimates of population along the coast is necessary to provide a realistic measure of the population most vulnerable to hurricanes and sea-level rise. This paper utilized four published datasets and geographic information system (GIS) methods to retrieve the answers for the 23 coastal states in the conterminous United States. The results show that about 19 million people reside within one kilometer from the shoreline in the conterminous U.S.| whereas about 11.6 million people live below three-meter elevation. The state-by-state estimates reveal that Florida has the highest percentage of population living in areas below three meters (32.5%; 5.9 million people)| followed by Louisiana (27.6%; 1.2 million people). The same methodology can be applied worldwide to estimate the most vulnerable coastal population to global climate change. 768,2009,2,4,An evaluation of indoor and outdoor biological particulate matter,The incidences of allergies| allergic diseases and asthma are increasing world wide. Global climate change is likely to impact plants and animals| as well as microorganisms. The World Health Organization| U.S. Environmental Protection Agency| U.S. Department of Agriculture| U.S. Department of Health and Human Services| and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change cite increased allergic reactions due to climate change as a growing concern. Monitoring of indoor and ambient particulate matter (PM) and the characterization of the content for biological aerosol concentrations has not been extensively performed. Samples from urban and rural North Carolina (NC)| and Denver (CO)| were collected and analyzed as the goal of this research. A study of PM(10) (<10 mu m in aerodynamic diameter) and PM(2.5) (<2.5 mu m in aerodynamic diameter) fractions of ambient bioaerosols was undertaken for a six month period to evaluate the potential for long-term concentrations. These airborne bioaerosols can induce irritational| allergic| infectious| and chemical responses in exposed individuals. Three separate sites were monitored| samples were collected and analyzed for mass and biological content (endotoxins| (1|3)-beta-D-glucan and protein). Concentrations of these bioaerosols were reported as a function of PM size fraction| mass and volume of air sampled. The results indicated that higher concentrations of biologicals were present in PM(10) than were present in PM(2.5)| except when near-roadway conditions existed. This study provides the characterization of ambient bioaerosol concentrations in a variety of areas and conditions. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 9664,2009,2,3,An Evaluation of Reproducibility of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the CMIP3 Simulations,Reproducibility of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is evaluated in the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly field in "the 20th century climate in coupled models" (20C3M) simulations of the 24 CMIP3 models. In this evaluation| we examine how well patterns of the PDO match between the observations and simulations by calculating a metric of the patterns that is a function of their spatial correlation and their standard deviation. Among the CMIP3 models| the models with the high PDO metric reproduce the decadal SST variability with opposing polarities between the central North Pacific and the tropical Pacific. As observed| temporal correlation between the PDO and decadal-ENSO indices in those simulations are negatively correlated at the statistically-significant level. The sea level pressure and outgoing longwave radiation anomalies onto the decadal-ENSO index in those simulations are realistic both in the tropical Pacific and North Pacific| indicating that this tropics-extratropics linkage in the SST anomaly field is induced by atmospheric teleconnection. This notion is consistent with the previous studies for the natural climate variability. In contrast| the models with the low PDO metric fail to reproduce those characteristics. In the simulations under a middle-range IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenario (A I B)| the PDO indices during the 21st century still represent SST variations on the decadal timescales with superimposition on a linear warming trend. Several models which reproduce the observed PDO pattern in the 20th century record tend to simulate a similar pattern over the 21st century. This indicates that the models with the high PDO metric have their own properties that tend to simulate the natural climate variations with the observed pattern under the global warming condition. 10068,2009,3,4,An Examination of Existing Data for the Industrial Manufacture and Use of Nanocomponents and Their Role in the Life Cycle Impact of Nanoproducts,This work examines the manufacture and use of nanocomponents and how they can affect the life cycle impact of resulting nanoproducts. Available data on the production of nanoproducts and nanocomponents are used to identify the major groups of nanocomponents studied in this paper: inorganic nanoparticles| carbon-based nanomaterials| and specialty/composite materials. A comparison of existing results for life cycle assessments of nanocomponents and nanoproducts is used to possibly identify trends in nanomanufacturing based on material grouping with regard to nonrenewable energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Continuing work is needed in this area to incorporate other factors such as toxicity and resource consumption in addition to energy use and global warming potential to fully understand the role of nanomanufacturing in the life cycle of nanoproducts. 10336,2009,4,4,An example of the dependence of the transient climate response on the temperature of the modelled climate state,The range in absolute global mean surface temperature projected with a small| perturbed ocean physics ensemble reduces as the levels of CO(2) increase. The initial temperature state of an ensemble member is correlated to the amount of global warming seen in that member. The correlation arises| in approximately equal amounts| by variations in the ocean heat uptake within the ensemble and a dependency of the strength of the atmosphere-surface climate feedbacks on the initial climate. This relationship provides a clear warning that some uncertainty in global change projections derives from the simulation of the mean state. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright 9554,2009,4,4,An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy,Planned adaptation to climate change requires information about what is happening and why. While a long-term trend is for global warming| short-term periods of cooling can occur and have physical causes associated with natural variability. However| such natural variability means that energy is rearranged or changed within the climate system| and should be traceable. An assessment is given of our ability to track changes in reservoirs and flows of energy within the climate system. Arguments are given that developing the ability to do this is important| as it affects interpretations of global and especially regional climate change| and prospects for the future. 9759,2009,2,4,An Overview of Dry-wet Climate Variability among Monsoon-Westerly Regions and the Monsoon Northernmost Marginal Active Zone in China,Climate in mainland China can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone| i.e.|the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River| North China| and Northeast China. In the three regions| dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century| an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand| an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region| while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region| dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China| the lower Yangtze River| and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the last 4-5 centuries in several areas over the non-monsoon region. Some questions| such as the impact of global warming on dry-wet regime changes in China| complex interactions between the monsoon and westerly flows in Northeast China| and the integrated multi-proxy analysis throughout all of China| are proposed. 10183,2009,3,4,An overview of emissions trading and its prospects in Hong Kong,With the approval of the Chinese central government| the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) decided to participate in a regional emissions trading (ET) pilot scheme in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. This scheme| instead of aiming to curb global warming| is geared mostly toward reducing air pollutant (that is| SO(2)| NO(x)| RSP| and VOCs) emissions by 20-55% by 2010| thus improving air quality in the region. Both the HKSAR and the Guangdong Provincial Governments will impose emission caps on their respective power plants in the region and allocate emissions credits to them. This study explores the background of this regional ET scheme and correlates it with the emissions reduction scenario to provide more details for assessing its applicability to Hong Kong and Guangdong Province. Although practicing ET in the PRD region presents many challenges| establishing an appropriate ET scheme is of paramount importance for Hong Kong| as well as other cities in the PRD region| to achieve a sustainable air quality. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10067,2009,2,4,An overview of environmental issues in Southern Africa,This paper provides an overview of some of the significant environmental problems in the Southern African region. The key problems highlighted are global warming and climate variability| loss of biodiversity| deforestation| desertification-land degradation| waste and littering| population growth| urbanization| pollution| poverty and health hazards. These problems present a challenge to governments and other players within and outside Southern Africa to seek for long-term solutions by addressing the root causes of these problems. The paper notes that although the environmental problems facing the Southern African region are being tackled at national| regional and international levels| there is more that can be done. At the national level| the different agencies and players| both within and outside government need to strengthen coordination and implementation of key interventions in different sectors in both rural and urban areas. At the African regional and international levels| there is a need to address geopolitical forces and issues that contribute to the underdevelopment of the African region. Among the major issues are poor terms of international trade| political instability| poverty| declining economic performance and international debt. 923,2009,2,4,An overview of integrated hydro-ecological studies in the MELMARINA Project: monitoring and modelling coastal lagoons-making management tools for aquatic resources in North Africa,As landscape disturbance and climate conspire to accelerate global environmental change towards unprecedented levels in the twenty-first century| the populated coastal regions of many countries are facing major threats to sustainability. Coastal water resources are particularly vulnerable in dry regions. In view of the expected severity of future environmental change in the Southern Mediterranean Region| the European Commission supported an integrated multidisciplinary project| MELMARINA| on monitoring and modelling coastal lagoons in Morocco| Tunisia and Egypt. This is a region where water management for people and for agriculture has been intense particularly during the twentieth century| yet long-term environmental monitoring and management of wetland ecosystems are under developed. Not only are biodiversity aspects at risk in coastal lagoons and wetlands but the goods and services that affect human welfare are also generally in decline. Co-ordinated hydro-ecological monitoring at key wetland lagoons was begun in 2003 with a view to establishing environmental baselines and calibrating site-specified hydro-ecological models. This article introduces the project and its results that range from lagoon typification and hydro-ecology to the application of hydro-ecological models. Detailed results and evaluations are presented in a linked series of themed scientific articles within this special issue. The present condition of the lagoons investigated essentially results from various hydrological modifications combined with eutrophication problems| yet all still remain valuable aquatic ecosystems. Adequate monitoring data are an essential part of reliable predictive modelling and| despite several data gaps| nutrient load reduction scenarios were undertaken to help target restoration aims. Implementation of aspects of the EU Water Framework Directive for achieving good ecological status of transitional waters is advocated. Nevertheless| as the twenty-first century advances the effects of global climate change are expected to amplify current stresses making intervention restoration and adaptation management even more imperative. Long-term sustainability depends upon detecting and measuring environmental change (long-term water quality and ecological quality) and incorporating the results into appropriate hydro-ecological models to facilitate the development of appropriate management initiatives. 9307,2009,2,2,An updated assessment of the risks from climate change based on research published since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report,The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published in 2007 presents the most complete and authoritative assessment of the status of scientific knowledge on all aspects of climate change. This paper presents an updated assessment of the risks from anthropogenic climate change| based on a comprehensive review of the pertinent scientific literature published since finalisation of the AR4. Many risks are now assessed as stronger than in the AR4| including the risk of large sea-level rise already in the current century| the amplification of global warming due to biological and geological carbon-cycle feedbacks| a large magnitude of "committed warming" currently concealed by a strong aerosol mask| substantial increases in climate variability and extreme weather events| and the risks to marine ecosystems from climate change and ocean acidification. Some topics remain the subject of intense scientific debate| such as past and future changes in tropical cyclone activity and the risk of large-scale Amazon forest dieback. The rise in greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations has accelerated recently| and it is expected to accelerate further in the absence of targeted policy interventions. Taken together| these findings point to an increased urgency of implementing mitigation policies as well as comprehensive and equitable adaptation policies. 9440,2009,3,3,Anaerobic digestion and digestate use: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contribution,Anaerobic digestion (AD) of source-separated municipal solid waste (MSW) and use of the digestate is presented from a global warming (GW) point of view by providing ranges of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are useful for calculation of global warming factors (GWFs)| i.e. the contribution to GW measured in CO(2)-equivalents per tonne of wet waste. The GHG accounting was done by distinguishing between direct contributions at the AD facility and indirect upstream or downstream contributions. GHG accounting for a generic AD facility with either biogas utilization at the facility or upgrading of the gas for vehicle fuel resulted in a GWF from -375 (a saving) to 111 (a load) kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) wet waste. In both cases the digestate was used for fertilizer substitution. This large range was a result of the variation found for a number of key parameters: energy substitution by biogas| N(2)O-emission from digestate in soil| fugitive emission of CH(4)| unburned CH(4)| carbon bound in soil and fertilizer substitution. GWF for a specific type of AD facility was in the range -95 to -4 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) wet waste. The ranges of uncertainty| especially of fugitive losses of CH(4) and carbon sequestration highly influenced the result. In comparison with the few published GWFs for AD| the range of our data was much larger demonstrating the need to use a consistent and robust approach to GHG accounting and simultaneously accept that some key parameters are highly uncertain. 9826,2009,4,4,Analysis of climate record breaking temperature events in China during the past 50 years,The occurrence of record breaking temperature events (RBTE) became more and more frequent under the background of global warming. What is the probability that the current temperature record will be broken in the next five years? In this study| answers are provided by given a variety of simple statistical models for temperature| and the relationship between the probability of RBTE of China and the global warming is explored by comparative analysis of the probability of RBTE in the last 50 years. The results show that the frequency of RBTE is influenced by global warming and the autocorrelation. This| study quantitatively estimates the relationship between the probability of RBTE and global warming| which can deepen our knowledge about the increasing frequency and amplitude of RBTE under the background of global warming. 10041,2009,3,3,Analysis of PV/wind potential in the Canadian residential sector through high-resolution building energy simulation,Rising fuel prices and global warming are two major issues that concern people today. In this paper| the effect that the integration of the hybrid photovoltaic (PV)/wind-turbine generation can have on conservation of energy and reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) has been studied. Base-case energy demands were calculated using building energy simulation software and then the residential buildings were equipped with the PV/wind-turbine electricity generation devices. The results show that the integration of those equipments can reduce both cost of fuel and GHG emissions to a fair amount. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 10344,2009,2,4,Analysis of regional climate change modelling experiments for the Carpathian Basin,In the last decade| Regional Climate Models (RCMs) nested in Global Climate Models (GCMs) have become essential tools to make climate projections with fine spatial resolution. In this paper| control runs of the RCMs RegCM and PRECIS are discussed and compared for the Central/Eastern European region. Both RCMs are three-dimensional| sigma-coordinate| primitive equation models| for the control experiments (1961-1990)| they use initial and lateral boundary conditions from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data sets (ERA-40). For the validation| monthly data sets of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia are used. According to the results| the model RegCM generally underestimates the temperature| while the model PRECIS overestimates it. The precipitation is generally overestimated by the RegCM simulations| and underestimated by the PRECIS simulations. In the case of PRECIS| a model experiment for the Central/Eastern European region for the 2071-2100 period is completed using the HadCM3 GCM outputs (A2 scenario) as boundary conditions. The results suggest that the significant temperature increase expected in the Carpathian Basin may considerably exceed the global warming rate. The climate of this region is expected to become wetter in winter and drier in the other seasons. 9920,2009,2,4,Analyzing sea level rise and tide characteristics change driven by coastal construction at Mokpo Coastal Zone in Korea,This study investigates a construction-induced sea level rise and tide characteristics change| using a regression analysis to separate the local construction effect such as sea-dike/seawalls and global warming from total sea level change. The study also makes it clear why and how the extreme high water level has risen just after constructions at Mokpo harbor in Korea. As a result of the regression analysis| it is found that the high water level rise for the period of 1960-2006 is similar to 60cm| which is summation of four components: similar to 23cm for Youngsan River sea-dike (1981)| similar to 15cm for Youngam seawall (1991)| similar to 8 cm for Geumho seawall (1994)| and similar to 14 cm for gradual rise (due mainly to global warming). Then| a numerical simulation at Mokpo coastal zone is performed to identify each component| and the results support the premise that the tidal amplification caused by constructions is due mainly to the extinguishment of the tidal choking effect at outer Mokpogu. The tidal flat effect makes the amplification greater at spring tide or extraordinary high tide| which would result in the increase of inundation risk at the Mokpo coastal zone. Frequency distribution of observed high water level data shows increasing trend for both maximum value of astronomical tide component (simulated high water level) and meteorological tide component (surge height) after the coastal constructions. A frequency analysis presents that the high water level for 50 year return period. which is often used for design in practice| is 474cm before the construction| and while that is 553cm after the construction. Furthermore| design height might steadily be elevated considering future global sea level rise. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9466,2009,4,3,Annual net production and annual carbon and nitrogen absorptions of Eisenia arborea in the eastern coast of Ise Bay,It is reported that seaweeds help to prevent global warming and decrease eutrophication by fixing carbon dioxide and absorbing nutrients such as nitrogen. From June 2007 to June 2008| we investigated the annual net production and annual carbon and nitrogen absorptions of Eisenia arborea in the eastern coast of Ise Bay. The annual production in terms of dry weight was estimated by counting the number of new bladelets and was found to be 5.23 d.w.kg m(-2)y(-1). The annual carbon and nitrogen absorptions were estimated by measuring their concentrations in the bladelets; these were found to be 1.13 kgC m(-2)y(-1) and 0.09 kgN m(-2)y(-1)| respectively.
9674,2009,2,4,Annual variation of temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon decomposition in North peatlands: implications for thermal responses of carbon cycling to global warming,Temperature sensitivities of microbial respiration and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production were investigated by using a novel method| thermal gradient (2-20A degrees C) temperature bar| in two typical peatlands (bog and fen) in North Wales| UK over 12 months. The study indicated that temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon decomposition in North peatlands was regulated not only by temperature but soil water content| dry-rewet event and phenologies. Potential decreases of Q(10) (CO(2)) with increasing soil temperature were confirmed in both peatlands| but Q(10) (DOC) increase with increasing soil temperature in both bog and fen sites. These results imply| if other factors such as the so-called CO(2) fertilization effect are simultaneously taken into account| that the feedback of global warming induced CO(2) release from peatlands to climate change may be overestimated in current biogeochemical models. However| global warming might have been nonlinearly accelerating DOC thermal production| and therefore it helps explaining the causes of remarkable increase of DOC in surface water in the Northern Hemisphere during last several decades. 9671,2009,2,4,Anthropogenic and natural effects on the coastal lagoons in the southwest of Spain (Donana National Park),The Donana peridunal lagoons| located in the southwest of Spain| have been well studied| because their conservation is of great interest. Since 1965| they have also been affected by the extraction of underground water for local coastal tourist resorts. A reconstruction of the evolution of this series of coastal lagoons reveals that| along with the anthropogenic effect| there was a natural effect resulting from the reactivation of mobile dune fronts that have blocked and filled the original lagoon complex-in the period 1920-1987| the lagoons were reduced by 70.7%. These fronts might have been fed by deposits of marine sand during the climatically driest phases of the Little Ice Age in Andalusia| Spain. Therefore| if the frequency and duration of dry periods increase| as well as droughts as a whole| because of global warming| the desiccation and disappearance of the lagoons could become more widespread| not only at this site in southwestern Europe| but in other Mediterranean coastal ecosystems as well. 9313,2009,2,4,Application and development of a decision-support system for assessing water shortage and allocation with climate change,The assessment to vulnerability of the water supply system needs several modeling tools and cases to simulate. A decision-support tool which integrates the common procedures of impact assessment of climate change| downscaling| weather generation| hydrological model| and interface for linking system dynamics model is proposed here. In this study| the impact of climatic change and growing water demand to the water supply system in Touchien river basin in Taiwan was derived. The vulnerability for the current water supply system was estimated for present and future conditions. The result demonstrated that the water supply system could meet the water demand in Touchien river basin but might be subjected to serious water shortage due to climatic change and expanded water demand. Results are expected to give the authorized government sectors a hint for instituting water policy and implementing allocation measures for irrigational water. 824,2009,2,4,Application of genetic programming to project climate change impacts on the population of Formosan Landlocked Salmon,This work presents a novel methodology| genetic programming (GP)| for developing environmental response functions for Formosan Landlocked Salmon (Oncorhynchus masou formosanus): these functions are then applied to evaluate the impacts of climate changes. Average daily temperature and maximal flows between two sampling periods were adopted as principal factors for categorizing environmental conditions. The GP successfully identified the response functions for various environmental categories. The response functions were further applied to assess the impact of climate change. Fourteen future possible climate scenarios were derived based on the equilibrium and transition experiments by GCMs. Impact assessment results indicated that climate change may significantly influence populations of Formosan Landlocked Salmon due to more frequent higher temperatures. Adaptation strategies are required to mitigate the impact of global climate change as current conservation measures for Formosan Landlocked Salmon habitat only reduce local human-induced effects. In the situation of complicated relationships between fish population and environmental conditions| GP provides a useful tool to obtain some information from the limited data. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 883,2009,4,4,Application of Hyperspectral Remote Sensing in Research on Ecological Boundary in North Farming-Pasturing Transition in China,Studies of ecological boundaries are important and have become a rapidly evolving part of contemporary ecology. The ecotones are dynamic and play several functional roles in ecosystem dynamics| and the changes in their locations can be used as an indicator of environment changes| and for these reasons| ecotones have recently become a focus of investigation of landscape ecology and global climate change. As the interest in ecotone increases| there is an increased need for formal techniques to detect it. Hence| to better study and understand the functional roles and dynamics of ecotones in ecosystem| we need quantitative methods to characterize them. In the semi-arid region of northern China| there exists a farming-pasturing transition resulting from grassland reclamation and deforestation. With the fragmentation of grassland landscape| the structure and function of the grassland ecosystem are changing. Given this perspective; new-image processing approaches are needed to focus on transition themselves. Hyperspectral remote sensing data| compared with wide-band remote sensing data| has the advantage of high spectral resolution. Hyperspectral remote sensing can be used to visualize transitional zones and to detect ecotone based on surface properties (e. g. vegetation| soil type| and soil moisture etc). In this paper| the methods of hyperspectral remote sensing information processing| spectral analysis and its application in detecting the vegetation classifications| vegetation growth state| estimating the canopy biochemical characteristics| soil moisture| soil organic matter etc are reviewed in detail. Finally the paper involves further application of hyperspectral remote sensing information in research on local climate in ecological boundary in north farming-pasturing transition in China. 822,2009,5,4,Application of Sediment Traps in Global Change Research in Mountain Lakes,Representativity of biota in the biosphere also have similar significance in the lithosphere after their death. Recently| taphonomic representation of biota in the lithosphere has been widely used for minimizing the biases in palaeo-environmental reconstructions including global climate change. In September 2001| a sediment trap was installed at the central area of the Loch Coire Fionnaraich (LCFR)| a small| oligotrophic mountain loch in northwest Scotland for a taphonomic study of cladoceran zooplankton. The trap was emptied on a seasonal basis| where an average 0.14 g dry material was recovered in each season| January| May and August 2002 respectively. A sediment core was also taken from near the sediment trap location. The top 0.5 cm section| the 'core' was used for a comparative study with the trap sediment samples. The planktonic Cladocera consisted of Bosmina coregoni and appeared to have excellent preservation in the trap assemblages. Moreover| some common littoral Cladocera such as Alonella excisa and Alona guttata appear to be less well preserved in the fossil assemblages. Large littoral taxa such as Eurycercus lamellatus and Alona quadrangularis were rare in the trap but relatively common and well preserved in the sediment-water interface. It is suggested that taphonomic processes play a dominant role on deposition of fossil remains of Cladocera and caution should be taken while inferring the past environmental changes whilst using fossil assemblages recovered from the lake centre as a representation of the entire cladoceran community in the lake. 9745,2009,3,2,Application of System Dynamics model as decision making tool in urban planning process toward stabilizing carbon dioxide emissions from cities,In spite of the fact that cities are the main sources of CO(2) emissions| presently there are still no specific measures directly addressing the global warming issue in the urban planning process in Malaysia. The present study thus aims to shed new light in the urban planning sector in Malaysia by adopting System Dynamics Model as one of the decision making tools in the urban planning process| with specific considerations on the future CO(2) emission trends. This paper presented projections of future CO(2) emission trends based on the case of Iskandar Development Region of Malaysia| under various options of urban policies| using the System Dynamics Model. The projections demonstrated the capability of the said model in serving as a decision making tool in the urban planning process| with specific reference to CO(2) emissions from cities. Recommendations have been made on the possible approach of adopting the model in the process of Structure Plan study. If the current model was successfully adopted in the urban planning process in Malaysia| it will mark the first step for Malaysia in taking specific considerations on the issues of CO(2) emissions and global warming in the urban planning process. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9730,2009,4,3,Application of the DNDC model to predict emissions of N(2)O from Irish agriculture,Models are increasingly used to examine the potential impacts of management and climate change in agriculture. Our aim in this paper was to assess the applicability of the field-DeNitrification DeComposition (DNDC) model in Irish agriculture. This study provides the results of that evaluation| which is a prerequisite for using the model for assessing management impacts in the future. The DNDC model was tested against seasonal and annual data sets of nitrous oxide flux from a spring barley field and a cut and grazed pasture at the Teagasc Oak Park Research Centre| Co. Carlow| Ireland. In the case of the arable field| predicted fluxes of N(2)O agreed well with measured fluxes for medium to high fertilizer input (70-160 kg N ha(-1)) but poorly described those fluxes from zero fertilizer treatments. In terms of cumulative flux values| the relative deviation of the predicted fluxes from the measured values was a maximum of 6% for the highest N fertilizer inputs but increased to 30% for the medium N and more than 100% for the zero N fertilizer treatments. There is a linear correlation of predicted against measured flux values for all fertilizer treatments (r(2) = 0.85) but the model underestimated the seasonal flux by 24%. Incorporation of literature values from a range of different studies on arable and pasture land did not significantly improve the regression. The description by DNDC for measured fluxes of N(2)O from reduced tillage plots was poor with underestimation of up to 55%. For the cut and grazed pasture the relative deviations of predicted to measured fluxes were 150 and 360% for fertilized and unfertilized plots. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the poor model fit is due to DNDC overestimating WFPS and the effect of initial soil organic carbon (SOC) on N(2)O flux. As the arable and grassland soils differed only in SOC content| reducing SOC of the grassland field to that of the arable field value significantly improved the fit of the model to measured data such that the relative deviations decreased to 9 and 5% respectively. Sensitivity analysis highlighted air temperature as the main determinant of N(2)O flux| an increase in mean daily air temperature of 1.5 degrees C resulting in almost a 65% increase in the annual cumulative flux. This is interesting as with future global warming| N(2)O flux from the soil will have a strong positive feedback. It can be concluded that DNDC is unsuitable for predicting N(2)O from Irish grassland due to its overestimation of WFPS and effect of SOC on the flux. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10325,2009,3,3,APPLICATION OF TRANSPORT DEMAND MODELING IN POLLUTION ESTIMATION OF A STREET NETWORK,The importance of transportation modeling| especially personal car flow modeling| is well recognized in transportation planning. Modern software tools give the possibility of generating many development scenarios of transport system| which can be tested quickly. Transportation models represent a good (and necessary) basis in the procedure of environmental traffic impacts and energy emission estimation. Research in this paper deals with the possibility of using transportation modeling as a tool for estimation of some air pollution and global warming indicators on street network produced by personal cars with internal combustion engines. These indicators could be the basis for defining planning and management solutions for transport system with respect to their environmental impacts. All the analyses are based on several years of research experience in Belgrade. According to the emissions of gases from the model| the values of other green house gases can be estimated using the known relations between the pollutants. There is a possibility that all these data can be used to calculate the transportation systems impact on temperature increase in urban areas. 732,2009,4,4,Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool,Background: Although the message of "global climate change'' is catalyzing international action| it is local and regional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists| managers| and policy makers. A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the difficulty accessing| analyzing| and interpreting climate-change information. To address this problem| we developed a powerful| yet easy to use| web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateWizard.org) that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovative graphical depictions for conveying how climate has and is projected to change within specific geographic areas throughout the world. Methodology/Principal Findings: To demonstrate the Climate Wizard| we explored historic trends and future departures (anomalies) in temperature and precipitation globally| and within specific latitudinal zones and countries. We found the greatest temperature increases during 1951-2002 occurred in northern hemisphere countries (especially during January-April)| but the latitude of greatest temperature change varied throughout the year| sinusoidally ranging from approximately 50 degrees N during February-March to 10 degrees N during August-September. Precipitation decreases occurred most commonly in countries between 0-20 degrees N| and increases mostly occurred outside of this latitudinal region. Similarly| a quantile ensemble analysis based on projections from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 2070-2099 identified the median projected change within countries| which showed both latitudinal and regional patterns in projected temperature and precipitation change. Conclusions/Significance: The results of these analyses are consistent with those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| but at the same time| they provide examples of how Climate Wizard can be used to explore regionally- and temporally-specific analyses of climate change. Moreover| Climate Wizard is not a static product| but rather a data analysis framework designed to be used for climate change impact and adaption planning| which can be expanded to include other information| such as downscaled future projections of hydrology| soil moisture| wildfire| vegetation| marine conditions| disease| and agricultural productivity. 9755,2009,3,3,Applying California's AB 32 targets to the regional level: A study of San Diego County greenhouse gases and reduction strategies,This paper presents a summary of a local effort in California to assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and identify potential mitigation measures. Local policymakers in California already have been searching for ways to reduce GHG emissions but it was the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32)| which seeks to reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. that has provided a framework for regions to evaluate their ability to reduce GHG emissions. We conducted a GHG inventory for the San Diego region from 1990 to 2006| with forecasts to 2020. The region emitted approximately 34 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO(2)E) in 2006 from anthropogenic sources| which represents a 17% increase over the 1990 level of 29 MMT CO(2)E. Applying a combination of 21 existing or pending state GHG reduction mandates and feasible regional measures we show that the region could achieve the AB 32 target. Although the largest reductions are achieved through state mandates| all measures| including at the local level| will be required to achieve the AB 32 target. Thus local regions retain control over a fairly significant portion of reductions| and remain important actors in the implementation and compliance of state mandates. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9617,2009,3,2,Approaches to the design of sustainable housing with low CO(2) emission in Denmark,Over the last year there has been a remarkable change in politicians' attitudes within Denmark and EU member states to the issue of climate change. This change in the political mindset is a result of the increasing frequency of high winds and flooding in Denmark and Europe| as well as in many other places around the world in recent years. This has resulted in an increasing challenge in terms of the planning| design and building of more sustainable buildings in order to reduce the use of energy for heating and cooling in new housing projects by bringing down the emission Of CO(2) by reducing the amount of fossil fuel consumed by the built environment. This is crucial since carbon dioxide is one of the so-called greenhouse gases that is playing a major role in global warming. There is thus an increased focus on reducing the CO(2) level on a national and global scale. This article will look at the architectural and legislative changes in Denmark in relation to the increased political interest in the consequences of climate change. The article also discusses a survey of different types of approaches to the sustainable design of buildings and shows examples of new Danish housing projects that can minimise the use of energy for heating and cooling in the shape of detached houses| as well as a master thesis on high-rise houses. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 804,2009,2,4,Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal abundance in the Mojave Desert: Seasonal dynamics and impacts of elevated CO(2),Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) play important roles in ecosystem processes. However| little is known about AMF abundance in arid| nutrient-poor environments like the Mojave Desert of North America. We conducted two AMF studies: one examined AMF responses to elevated atmospheric CO(2) at the Nevada Desert FACE (Free-Air-Carbon dioxide-Enrichment) Facility (NDFF)| and the second examined seasonal dynamics at nearby sites. In both studies| AMF measurements (root colonization| extra-radical hyphal [ERH] length| and two measures of glomalin-related soil protein [GRSP]) and environmental factors (root length| soil water content| and precipitation) were measured across microsites (beneath shrubs| shrub interspaces) for two species (Larrea tridentata| Ambrosia dumosa). Elevated CO(2) did not significantly affect AMF measurements. Other NDFF studies show no change in fine root production under elevated CO(2) but show increased available nitrogen. We infer that additional fixed carbon under elevated CO(2) is not allocated to soil resource foraging. However| AMF varied seasonally. ERH seasonally declined across species and microsites| but GRSP declined only beneath L. tridentata. Our results combined with previous results indicate that drought negatively affects AMF root colonization. Robust inter-relationship among AMF measurements only occurred between the two measures of GRSP| indicating that resources are independently allocated to different AMF structures. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9308,2009,2,4,Are bird populations in tropical and subtropical forests of South America affected by climate change?,The tropical and subtropical moist forests of South America have been seen as remarkable for their great wealth of animals and plants and as the world leader in bird diversity. However| a problem is apparently affecting bird populations in these habitats| to the extent that most of the sites that I have studied in the last few years were practically "ornithological deserts". Censuses conducted in the Amazon rainforest in Ecuador and Bolivia have revealed no more than 15 species and 18 individuals in 1 day. It is evident that this is not a problem of the kind usually induced by humans at a local level| such as deforestation| hunting or pesticide use. The low diversity and activity were observed not only in disturbed habitats| but also in well-preserved national parks and reserves. If it is related to human activities| then this must be more widespread. One such possibility is global warming. For ornithological studies| this is a very severe problem that must be closely examined to see whether it is also a threat to bird survival and if it is related to climate change. 9498,2009,3,4,Are global warming and economic growth compatible? Evidence from five OPEC countries?,In this paper| we investigate the relationship between carbon emissions| income| energy and total employment in selected OPEC countries for the period of 1971-2002. We mainly focus on the link between energy use and income. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach| we find that there is a cointegrating relationship between the variables in Saudi Arabia only. The long run forcing variables for income are determined to be employment and energy for Saudi Arabia. In Indonesia| Algeria| Nigeria| and Venezuela| there is no cointegration between income and energy. Secondly we question the long run Granger causality between carbon emissions| energy use| and income. Our results suggest that none of the countries need to sacrifice economic growth to decrease their emission levels. Indonesia and Nigeria may contribute to emissions reduction via energy conservation without negative long run effects on economic growth. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9456,2009,2,4,Artificial drainage and associated carbon fluxes (CO(2)/CH(4)) in a tundra ecosystem,Ecosystem flux measurements using the eddy covariance (EC) technique were undertaken in 4 subsequent years during summer for a total of 562 days in an arctic wet tundra ecosystem| located near Cherskii| Far-Eastern Federal District| Russia. Methane (CH(4)) emissions were measured using permanent chambers. The experimental field is characterized by late thawing of permafrost soils in June and periodic spring floods. A stagnant water table below the grass canopy is fed by melting of the active layer of permafrost and by flood water. Following 3 years of EC measurements| the site was drained by building a 3 m wide drainage channel surrounding the EC tower to examine possible future effects of global change on the tundra tussock ecosystem. Cumulative summertime net carbon fluxes before experimental alteration were estimated to be about + 15 g C m(-2) (i.e. an ecosystem C loss) and + 8 g C m(-2) after draining the study site. When taking CH(4) as another important greenhouse gas into account and considering the global warming potential (GWP) of CH(4) vs. CO(2)| the ecosystem had a positive GWP during all summers. However CH(4) emissions after drainage decreased significantly and therefore the carbon related greenhouse gas flux was much smaller than beforehand (475 +/- 253 g C-CO(2)-e m(-2) before drainage in 2003 vs. 23 +/- 26 g C-CO(2)-e m(-2) after drainage in 2005). 9396,2009,2,4,Aspen| climate| and sudden decline in western USA,A bioclimate model predicting the presence or absence of aspen| Populus tremuloides| in western USA from climate variables was developed by using the Random Forests classification tree on Forest Inventory data from about 118|000 permanent sample plots. A reasonably parsimonious model used eight predictors to describe aspen's climate profile. Classification errors averaged 4.5%| most of which were errors of commission. The model was driven primarily by three variables: an annual dryness index| the ratio of summer to annual precipitation| and an interaction of growing season precipitation with the summer-winter temperature differential. Projecting the contemporary climate profile into the future climate provided by three General Circulation Models and two scenarios (SRES A2 and either B1 or B2) suggested that the area occupied by the profile should diminish rapidly over the course of the century| 6-41% by the decade surrounding 2030| 40-75% for that surrounding 2060| and 46-94% for 2090. The relevance of the climate profile to understanding climate-based responses is illustrated by relating trends in climate to the recent incidence of sudden aspen dieback that has plagued portions of the aspen distribution. Of the eight variables in the profile| four reached extreme values during 2000-2003| the period immediately preceding the appearance of damage in aerial surveys. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. 10306,2009,3,4,Assessing alternative aquaculture technologies: life cycle assessment of salmonid culture systems in Canada,This study employed life cycle assessment (LCA) to quantify and compare the potential environmental impacts of culturing salmonids in a conventional marine net-pen system with those of three reportedly environmentally-friendly alternatives; a marine floating bag system; a land-based saltwater flow-through system; and a land-based freshwater recirculating system. Results of the study indicate that while the use of these closed-containment systems may reduce the local ecological impacts typically associated with net-pen salmon farming| the increase in material and energy demands associated with their use may result in significantly increased contributions to several environmental impacts of global concern| including global warming| non-renewable resource depletion| and acidification. It is recommended that these unanticipated impacts be carefully considered in further assessments of the sustainability of closed-containment systems and in ongoing efforts to develop and employ these technologies on a larger scale. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 839,2009,2,4,Assessing concurrent patterns of environmental niche and morphological evolution among species of horned lizards (Phrynosoma),The prediction that variation in species morphology is related to environmental features has long been of interest to ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Many studies have demonstrated strong associations between morphological traits and local habitat characteristics| but few have considered the extent to which morphological traits may be associated with environmental features across broad geographic areas. Here| we use morphological| environmental and phylogenetic data compiled from Phrynosoma species to examine morphological and climatic variation across the geographic ranges of these species in an evolutionary context. We find significant phylogenetic signal in species' environmental niches| but not in morphological traits. Furthermore| we demonstrate a significant correlation between species' environmental niches and morphological traits when phylogenetic history is accounted for in the analysis. Our results suggest the importance of climatic variables in influencing morphological variation among species| and have implications for understanding how species distributions are constrained by environmental variation. 942,2009,3,4,Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama| USA| using the vegetation change tracker model,Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues| including global climate change| carbon budgets| and sustainability. In this study| our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987-2005| by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005| Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances| but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected| with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast| nonfederal forests| which are predominant in area share (about 95%)| were heavily disturbed| clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987-1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994-2005. Additionally| the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes. which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9560,2009,3,3,Assessing the benefits of crop albedo bio-geoengineering,It has been proposed that growing crop varieties with higher canopy albedo would lower summer-time temperatures over North America and Eurasia and provide a partial mitigation of global warming ('bio-geoengineering') (Ridgwell et al 2009 Curr. Biol. 19 1-5). Here| we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere-vegetation model (HadCM3) with prescribed agricultural regions| to investigate to what extent the regional effectiveness of crop albedo bio-geoengineering might be influenced by a progressively warming climate as well as assessing the impacts on regional hydrological cycling and primary productivity. Consistent with previous analysis| we find that the averted warming due to increasing crop canopy albedo by 0.04 is regionally and seasonally specific| with the largest cooling of similar to 1 degrees C for Europe in summer whereas in the low latitude monsoonal SE Asian regions of high density cropland| the greatest cooling is experienced in winter. In this study we identify potentially important positive impacts of increasing crop canopy albedo on soil moisture and primary productivity in European cropland regions| due to seasonal increases in precipitation. We also find that the background climate state has an important influence on the predicted regional effectiveness of bio-geoengineering on societally-relevant timescales (ca 100 years). The degree of natural climate variability and its dependence on greenhouse forcing that are evident in our simulations highlights the difficulties faced in the detection and verification of climate mitigation in geoengineering schemes. However| despite the small global impact| regionally focused schemes such as crop albedo bio-geoengineering have detection advantages. 982,2009,4,4,Assessing the Climate Monitoring Utility of Radio Occultation Data: From CHAMP to FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC,Radio Occultation (RO) data| using Global Positioning System (GPS) signals| deliver high quality observations of the atmosphere| which are well suited for monitoring global climate change. The special climate utility of RO data arises from their accuracy and long-term stability due to self-calibration. Launched in 2000| the German research satellite CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload for geoscientific research) provides the first opportunity to create RO based climatologies. Overlap with data from the Taiwan/US FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (Formosa Satellite Mission 3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology| Ionosphere and Climate| F3C) mission allows the testing for consistency of climatologies derived from different satellites. We show initial results for zonal mean climatologies as well as tropical tropopause parameters based on F3C RO data. Our results indicate excellent agreement between RO climatologies from different F3C satellites as well as between data from different RO missions. After subtraction of the estimated respective sampling error| seasonal temperature climatologies derived from different F3C satellites are in agreement to within < 0.1 K almost everywhere in the considered domain between 8 and 35 km altitude. Monthly mean tropical tropopause (lapse rate) temperatures and attitudes derived from four different RO missions show remarkable consistency (< 0.2 - 0.5 K| < 50 - 100 m) and indicate that data from different RO missions can indeed be combined without need for inter-calibration. F3C final constellation sampling error estimation shows a small oscillating local time related error (0.03 K amplitude) in the extratropics. 9707,2009,4,3,Assessing the effect of elevated carbon dioxide on soil carbon: a comparison of four meta-analyses,Soil is the largest reservoir of organic carbon (C) in the terrestrial biosphere and soil C has a relatively long mean residence time. Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentrations generally increase plant growth and C input to soil| suggesting that soil might help mitigate atmospheric CO(2) rise and global warming. But to what extent mitigation will occur is unclear. The large size of the soil C pool not only makes it a potential buffer against rising atmospheric CO(2)| but also makes it difficult to measure changes amid the existing background. Meta-analysis is one tool that can overcome the limited power of single studies. Four recent meta-analyses addressed this issue but reached somewhat different conclusions about the effect of elevated CO(2) on soil C accumulation| especially regarding the role of nitrogen (N) inputs. Here| we assess the extent of differences between these conclusions and propose a new analysis of the data. The four meta-analyses included different studies| derived different effect size estimates from common studies| used different weighting functions and metrics of effect size| and used different approaches to address nonindependence of effect sizes. Although all factors influenced the mean effect size estimates and subsequent inferences| the approach to independence had the largest influence. We recommend that meta-analysts critically assess and report choices about effect size metrics and weighting functions| and criteria for study selection and independence. Such decisions need to be justified carefully because they affect the basis for inference. Our new analysis| with a combined data set| confirms that the effect of elevated CO(2) on net soil C accumulation increases with the addition of N fertilizers. Although the effect at low N inputs was not significant| statistical power to detect biogeochemically important effect sizes at low N is limited| even with meta-analysis| suggesting the continued need for long-term experiments. 9710,2009,2,4,Assessing the effects of temperature on dengue transmission,The incidence of dengue infection| a vector-borne disease transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti| shows clear dependence on seasonal variation. Based on the quantification method that furnishes the size of the A. aegypti population in terms of the estimated entomological parameters for different temperatures| we assessed the risk or dengue outbreaks. The persistence and severity of epidemics can be assessed by the basic reproduction number R(0)| which varies with temperature. The expression for R(0) obtained from 'true' and 'pseudo' mass action laws for dengue infection is discussed. 905,2009,2,4,Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses,Global climate change| along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation| is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species| arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird Area (IBA) network is a series of sites designed to conserve avian diversity in the face of current threats from factors such as habitat loss and fragmentation. However| in common with other networks| the IBA network is based on the assumption that the climate will remain unchanged in the future. In this article| we provide a method to simulate the occurrence of species of conservation concern in protected areas| which could be used as a first-step approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change upon such species in protected areas. We use species-climate response surface models to relate the occurrence of 12 biome-restricted African species to climate data at a coarse (quarter degree-degree latitude-longitude) resolution and then intersect the grid model output with IBA outlines to simulate the occurrence of the species in South African IBAs. Our results demonstrate that this relatively simple technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios to highlight vulnerable species in IBAs in the future and allow practical recommendations to be made to enhance the IBA network and minimize the predicted impacts of climate change. 9945,2009,4,4,Assessing the Impacts of Global Warming on Snowpack in the Washington Cascades,The decrease in mountain snowpack associated with global warming is difficult to estimate in the presence of the large year-to-year natural variability in observations of snow-water equivalent (SWE). A more robust approach for inferring the impacts of global warming is to estimate the temperature sensitivity (lambda) of spring snowpack and multiply it by putative past and future temperature rises observed across the Northern Hemisphere. Estimates of lambda can be obtained from (i) simple geometric considerations based on the notion that as the seasonal-mean temperature rises by the amount delta T| the freezing level and the entire snowpack should rise by the increment delta T/Gamma| where Gamma is the mean lapse rate; (ii) the regression of 1 April SWE measurements upon mean winter temperatures; (iii) a hydrological model forced by daily temperature and precipitation observations; and (iv) the use of inferred accumulated snowfall derived from daily temperature and precipitation data as a proxy for SWE. All four methods yield an estimated sensitivity of 20% of spring snowpack lost per degree Celsius temperature rise. The increase of precipitation accompanying a 1 degrees C warming can be expected to decrease the sensitivity to 16%. Considering observations of temperature rise over the Northern Hemisphere| it is estimated that spring snow-water equivalent in the Cascades portion of the Puget Sound drainage basin should have declined by 8%-16% over the past 30 yr resulting from global warming| and it can be expected to decline by another 11%-21% by 2050. These losses would be statistically undetectable from a trend analysis of the region's snowpack over the past 30 yr. 10291,2009,2,4,Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the alpine habitat suitability of Japanese stone pine (Pinus pumila),To assess the potential distribution of Pinus pumila| a dominant species of the Japanese alpine zone| and areas of its habitats vulnerable to global warming| we predicted potential habitats under the current climate and two climate change scenarios (RCM20 and MIROC) for 2081-2100 using the classification tree (CT) model. The presence/absence records of P. pumila were extracted from the Phytosociological Relev| Database as response variables| and five climatic variables (warmth index| WI; minimum temperature for the coldest month| TMC; summer precipitation| PRS; maximum snow water equivalent| MSW; winter rainfall| WR) were used as predictor variables. Prediction accuracy of the CT evaluated by ROC analysis showed an AUC value of 0.97| being categorized as "excellent". We designated Third Mesh cells with an occurrence probability of 0.01 or greater as potential habitats and further divided them into suitable and marginal habitats based on the optimum threshold probability value (0.06) in ROC analysis. Deviance weighted scores revealed that WI was the largest contributing factor followed by MSW. Changes in habitat types from the current climate to the two scenarios were depicted within an observed distribution (Hayashi's distribution data). The area of suitable habitats under the current climate decreased to 25.0% and to 14.7% under the RCM20 and MIROC scenarios| respectively. Suitable habitats were predicted to remain on high mountains of two unconnected regions| central Honshu and Hokkaido| while they were predicted to vanish in Tohoku and southwestern Hokkaido. Thus P. pumila populations in these regions are vulnerable to climate change. 761,2009,2,4,Assessment of aeolian desertification trends from 1975's to 2005's in the watershed of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the upper reaches of China's Yellow River,Global climate change will affect the ecology and environment of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau| thus increasing attention is being paid to the aeolian desertification that is occurring in the watershed that supplies the Longyangxia Reservoir in the upper reaches of China's Yellow River. We must assess the aeolian desertification trends before developing a plan to restore the region's degraded eco-environment. In this study| land suffered from aeolian desertification was classified into four levels (slight| moderate| severe| and extremely severe) using a series of indices. Interpretation of Landsat MSS and TM data from 1975's| 1989's| and 2005's was used to establish databases of aeolian desertified land at these three times. We then derived the aeolian desertification trends during the study period by overlaying the consecutive databases| and we analyzed the driving factors responsible for the observed aeolian desertification. The results show a total of 1|721|478.02 ha of aeolian desertified land in 2005's| accounting for 13% of the region's total area. From 1975's to 1989's| the area of aeolian desertified land increased by 229|307.26 ha| which represents a 15% increase compared to the 1975's area; and from 1989's to 2005's| the area of aeolian desertified land decreased by 19|079.87 ha| which represents a 1% decrease compared to the 1989's area. The main driving factors responsible for this increased aeolian desertification were climate factors (high wind velocity and an increase in annual temperature| combined with low precipitation and high evaporation) as well as unsustainable human activities and inappropriate policy measures. A series of key national projects initiated to combat degradation of the study area's eco-environment led to a decrease of aeolian desertified land through obvious restoration of vegetation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9422,2009,4,4,Assessment of forthcoming climate changes on the territory of the Russian Federation,A brief characterization of observed climatic changes in surface temperature is presented for the globe and the Russian Federation. In accordance with this characteristic| observed changes are indicative of global warming| most pronounced after the 1970s. The skill in simulating a global climate in the 20th century by modern climate models is analyzed. It is shown that climate models satisfactorily reproduce the fields of long-term means| the seasonal cycle| and tendencies of changes in some meteorological objects| whereas their interannual variability (after removal of the trend) is not virtually simulated by the models. An approach to constructing a strategic forecast of forthcoming climatic changes in the Russian Federation for the next decades is discussed| and recommendations on its using are formulated. A variant of a probabilistic strategic forecast of air temperature for the 30-year period of 2008-2037 over Russia is proposed. 864,2009,4,4,Assessment of historic trend in mobility and energy use in India transportation sector using bottom-up approach,Transportation mobility in India has increased significantly in the past decades. From 1970 to 2000| motorized mobility (passenger-kilometer) has risen by 888%| compared to an 88% population growth (S. K. Singh|India: Implications For Energy Demand and CO2 Emission (Transport Policy| 2006)). This has contributed to many energy and environmental issues| and an energy strategy that incorporates efficiency improvement and other measures needs to be designed. Unfortunately| existing energy data do not provide information on driving forces behind energy use and sometimes show large inconsistencies. Many previous studies address only a single transportation mode such as passenger road travel| did not include comprehensive data collection or lack analysis or detail on energy demand by each mode and fuel mix. The current study will fill a considerable gap in current efforts| develop a database on all transport modes including passenger air and water and freight in order to facilitate the development of energy scenarios| and assess the significance of technology potential in a global climate change model. An extensive literature review and data collection has been done to establish the database with a breakdown of mobility| intensity| distance| and fuel mix of all transportation modes. Energy consumption was estimated and compared to aggregated transport consumption reported in IEA India transportation energy data. Different scenarios were estimated based on different assumptions of freight road mobility. Based on the bottom-up analysis| we estimated that the energy consumption from 1990 to 2000 increased at an annual growth rate of 7% for the midrange road freight growth case and 12% for the high range road freight growth case corresponding to the scenarios in mobility| while the IEA data only show a 1.7% growth rate in those years. (C) 2009 American Institute of Physics. [DOI: 10.1063/1.3156008] 9666,2009,3,4,Assessment of removal efficiency of perfluorocompounds (PFCs) in a semiconductor fabrication plant by gas chromatography,This study investigated a gas chromatographic (GC) method to assess the destruction or removal efficiency (DRE) of local scrubbers on five perfluorocompounds (PFCs)| i.e.| SF(6)| NF(3)| CF(4)| C(2)F(6) and C(3)F(8)| which are very potent greenhouse gases used in a semiconductor fabrication plant. Air samples taken at inlets and outlets of local scrubbers were analyzed by a self-constructed multi-column CC system equipped with thermal conductivity detection. Three packed columns were integrated into the heart-cut GC system to allow simultaneous analysis of the five target PFCs. The Porapak Q pre-column performs rough separation and cuts eluent groups to two analytical columns for optimal separation. The Molecular Sieve -5A column separated NF(3)| CF(4)| and C(3)F(8) and the second Porapak Q separated SF(6) and C(2)F(6). Linearity was greater than 0.995 (R(2)) for the five PFCs| and the reproducibility was about 4% (relative standard deviation) for NF(3)| and better than 0.5% for the other four PFCs. DRE for the combustion (CB) and electric-thermal types of local scrubbers was evaluated by taking into account the in-line dilution from air and fuel gases. Both flow and tracer methods were employed to deduce the dilution factors (DFs). For the tracer method| helium was employed as the tracer and injected upstream of the scrubbers and thus mixed with the exhaust gas. With this method| the DFs were determined to be in the range from 4.8 to 5.9 for the CB unit| significantly higher than the value of 3.3 based on the flow method. The DREs for the CB unit for C(3)F(8) were greater than 90% and between 40% and 50% for CF(4). (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 990,2009,2,4,Assessment of the adaptation potential of grass-based dairy systems to climate change in Ireland-The maximised production scenario,in order to evaluate adaptation within dairy production systems in Ireland with regard to the effects of global atmospheric change| it was necessary to complement research on primary production (grass yield) with investigation of the production system as a whole. There has been little work evaluating climate change impact on low-cost| grass-based dairy production which is currently regarded as the most profitable form of agricultural production system operating in Ireland| and is also successfully employed elsewhere in the world. A system simulator| Dairy_sim| was used to evaluate the long-term (2080) impacts of global climate change on low-cost| grass-based dairying in Ireland assuming a maximised production scenario (producing the greatest output of milk on a given land area). If a workable system| based on current management principles could be found| then the system was regarded as being capable of adaptation. At 11 locations in Ireland dairy production was investigated using Dairy_sim for both well-drained and poorly drained soils using a 2080 climate-period forecast. Climate change impact was evaluated by looking at changes in system proper-ties such as stocking rate| grass yield and silage supply following simulation for baseline 1970 (1961-1990) and 2080 (2070-2099) climates. For the maximised production scenario it was found that dairy production in Ireland should readily adapt to forecasted changes in agrometeorological conditions and can remain functional. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9645,2009,3,3,Assessment of the ecodesign improvement options using the global warming and economic performance indicators,In this paper| an assessment method is proposed for ecodesign improvement options using global warming and economic performance indicators. A reduction in the GHG emissions in the entire life cycle stages of a product was chosen as the global warming performance of the product The external cost which converts the external effect of global warming into a monetary value was chosen as the global warming performance indicator in order to measure the performance of the GHG reduction of the product. The life cycle cost (LCC) of the product was chosen as the economic performance indicator to measure the performance of the life cycle cost reduction of the product. The assessment method based on the two performance indicators was applied to the liquid crystal display (LCD) panel for a case study. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9630,2009,3,4,Assessment of the environmental profile of PLA| PET and PS clamshell containers using LCA methodology,Life cycle assessments of bio-based polymer resin and products historically have shown favorable results in terms of environmental impacts and energy use compared to petroleum-based products. However| calculation of these impacts always depends on the system and boundary conditions considered during the study. This paper reports a cradle-to-cradle Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of poly(lactic acid) (PLA) in comparison with poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) and poly(styrene) (PS) thermoformed clamshell containers| used for packaging of strawberries with emphasis on different end-of-life scenarios. It considers all the inputs such as fertilizers| pesticides| herbicides and seed corn required for the growing and harvesting of corn used for manufacturing PLA. For PET and PS| the extraction of crude oil and the entire cracking processes from crude oil through styrene and ethylene glycol and terephathalic acid are considered. Global warming| aquatic acidification| aquatic eutrophication| aquatic ecotoxicity| ozone depletion| non-renewable energy and respiratory organics| land occupation and respiratory inorganics were the selected midpoint impact categories. The geographical scope of the study reflects data from Europe| North America and the Middle East. PET showed the highest overall values for all the impact categories| mainly due to the higher weight of the containers. The main impacts to the environment were the resin production and the transportation stage of the resins and containers. This implies that the transportation stage of the package is an important contributor to the environmental impact of the packaging systems| and that it cannot be diminished. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9733,2009,3,2,Assessment of the greenhouse effect impact of technologies used for energy recovery from municipal waste: A case for England,Waste management activities contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions approximately by 4%. In particular the disposal of waste in landfills generates methane that has high global warming potential. Effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is important and could provide environmental benefits and sustainable development| as well as reduce adverse impacts on public health. The European and UK waste policy force sustainable waste management and especially diversion from landfill| through reduction| reuse| recycling and composting| and recovery of value from waste. Energy from waste is a waste management option that could provide diversion from landfill and at the same time save a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions| since it recovers energy from waste which usually replaces an equivalent amount of energy generated from fossil fuels. Energy from waste is a wide definition and includes technologies such as incineration of waste with energy recovery| or combustion of waste-derived fuels for energy production or advanced thermal treatment of waste with technologies such as gasification and pyrolysis| with energy recovery. The present study assessed the greenhouse gas emission impacts of three technologies that could be used for the treatment of Municipal Solid Waste in order to recover energy from it. These technologies are Mass Burn Incineration with energy recovery| Mechanical Biological Treatment via bio-drying and Mechanical Heat Treatment| which is a relatively new and uninvestigated method| compared to the other two. Mechanical Biological Treatment and Mechanical Heat Treatment can turn Municipal Solid Waste into Solid Recovered Fuel that could be combusted for energy production or replace other fuels in various industrial processes. The analysis showed that performance of these two technologies depends strongly on the final use of the produced fuel and they could produce GHG emissions savings only when there is end market for the fuel. On the other hand Mass Burn Incineration generates greenhouse gas emission savings when it recovers electricity and heat. Moreover the study found that the expected increase on the amount of Municipal Solid Waste treated for energy recovery in England by 2020 could save greenhouse gas emission| if certain Energy from Waste technologies would be applied| under certain conditions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10184,2009,3,2,Assessment of the Impact of Salinity and Irradiance on the Combined Carbon Dioxide Sequestration and Carotenoids Production by Dunaliella salina: A Mathematical Model,Current anthropogenic activities have been causing a significant increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO(2) over the past 60 years. To mitigate the consequent global warming problem| efficient technological Solutions| based on economical and technical grounds| are required. In this work| microalgae are studied as important biological systems of CO(2) fixation into organic compounds through photosynthesis. These microorganisms are potential sources of a wide variety of interesting chemical compounds| which can be used for commercial purposes| reducing the cost of CO(2) capture and sequestration. Specifically| Dunaliella salina culture was Studied aiming at the impact evaluation of operational conditions over cellular growth and carotenoid production associated with the CO(2) sequestration oil focus. The main experimental parameter.| investigated were salinity and irradiance conditions. The experimental results supported the development of a descriptive mathematical model of the process| Based oil the proposed model| a sensitivity analysis was carried out to investigate the operational conditions that maximize CO(2) consumption and carotenoid production| in order to guide further development of technological routes for CO(2) capture through microalgae. A preliminary cost estimation of CO(2) sequestration combined to carotenoids production for a 200 MW power plant is presented| based on the growth rates achieved in this study. 10288,2009,5,4,Assessment of tree-ring analysis of high-elevation Cedrus deodara D. Don from Western Himalaya (India) in relation to climate and glacier fluctuations,A 458-year-long regional tree-ring-width index chronology of Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara D. Don) prepared from three high-elevation sites of Western Himalaya has been presented. Dendrochmatological investigation indicates significant positive relationship of tree-ring index series with winter (December-February) temperature and Summer precipitation and inverse relationship With Summer temperature. Higher growth in the recent few decades detected in the tree-ring chronology has been noticed coinciding with the rapid retreat of the Himalayan glaciers. Suppressed and released growth patterns in tree-ring chronology have also been observed to be well related to the past glacial fluctuation records of the region. The higher tree growth in recent decades may be partially attributed to the warming trend over the region| particularly increasing the winter warmth| and thus to the regional manifestations of global waming. (C) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 9693,2009,4,3,Assessments of moisture fluxes east of the Andes in South America in a global warming scenario,The HadRM3P regional model from the UK Hadley Centre has been used to assess the moisture flux and the low-level jet (LLJ) east of the Andes in South America over two time periods: the first can be understood as the current climate and covers the period from 1980 to 1989; the second covers the period from 2080 to 2089 under a future global warming climate as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. The results are analyzed considering the vertically integrated moisture transport in the lower atmosphere and the moisture flux between the two core areas of South America - the Amazon Basin and the La Plata River Basin. In order to analyze the moisture transport east of the Andes| composites of South American LLJs were built based on the wind speed and vertical wind shear following the modified Bonner criteria 1 used to define LLJs. Integrations along the lateral boundaries of the two basins show that there could be a more intense moisture transport from tropical regions available to feed the mesoscale convective systems in the subtropical La Plata Basin in the IPCC A2 scenario| as compared to the present. This is because of the intense flow to the south associated with a faster LLJ bringing more moisture from the Amazon Basin Southwards. It was also observed that the presence of the LLJ affects moisture convergence in the Amazon Basin in the current climate as well as in the warmer climate. In the future high-emission scenario A2| a more intense LLJ in a global warming climate suggests increased moisture transport from north to south east of the Andes as compared to the present. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society 10130,2009,2,4,Atlantic hurricanes-Testing impacts of local SSTs| ENSO| stratospheric QBO-Implications for global warming,Processes affecting hurricane development over the North Atlantic like the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are discussed. Global coupled climate model simulations cannot answer directly the question on enhancement of hurricane activities (or its absence) under increased greenhouse gas concentrations because of their too coarse resolution. Therefore large-scale quantities that affect hurricane formation are investigated in a future warmer climate. More frequent or more intense hurricanes are expected from an increase in the local SST| from more latent heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere| from more westerly winds in the tropical stratosphere that reduces the occurrence of strong easterly phases of the QBO and from a more moist-unstable stratification of the atmosphere. However| a stronger vertical wind shear similar to the difference between El Nino and La Nina events suggests fewer hurricanes in the northern Atlantic. Also a more dry-stable atmosphere would lead to fewer hurricanes. Of the various forcing factors| the impact of wind shear appears to be more decisive| i.e. with a strong wind shear over the tropical Atlantic like during El Nino events strong hurricanes hardly happen while impacts from SSTs over the tropical Atlantic are less significant. As there are some factors favouring an increase of hurricane activity in a future climate and others favouring a decrease| it remains so far difficult to estimate their joint effect and to suggest any decisive trend. The area of hurricane development is limited among others by an increase of vertical wind shear towards the north and south from a minimum at 5-10 degrees N. This wind shear pattern does not change in a future climate and has the potential of superseding impacts from ocean warming. A need of very long time-series for obtaining robust results becomes obvious. Here at least 50 years of data were used. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 9886,2009,4,4,Atmospheric chemistry of CF(3)CF(2)H and CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)CF(2)H: Kinetics and products of gas-phase reactions with Cl atoms and OH radicals| infrared spectra| and formation of perfluorocarboxylic acids,Relative rate techniques were used to determine k(Cl + C(2)F(5)H) = (2.93 +/- 0.23) x 10 (16)| k(Cl + n-C(4)F(9)H) = (2.77 +/- 0.20) x 10 (16)| k(OH + C(2)F(5)H) = (1.96 +/- 0.25) x 10 (15)| and k(OH + n-C(4)F(9)H) = (1.85 +/- 0.29) x 10 (15) cm(3) molecule (1) s (1) at 296 K. The reactivity of C(2)F(5)H and n-C(4)F(9)H was indistinguishable. Atmospheric lifetimes| radiative efficiencies| and global warming potentials (100 year horizon) of C(2)F(5)H and n-C(4)F(9)H were estimated as 31 years| 0.21 and 0.31W m (2) ppb (1)| and 3280 and 2660| respectively. In the absence of NO(x) the chlorine-initiated oxidation of C(2)F(5)H and n-C(4)F(9)H gives perfluorocarboxylic acids in small (<2%) but detectable yields. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9885,2009,4,4,Atmospheric chemistry of cis-CF(3)CH=CHF: Kinetics of reactions with OH radicals and O(3) and products of OH radical initiated oxidation,Long path length FTIR-smog chamber techniques were used to measure k(OH + cis-CF(3)CH=CHF) = (1.20 +/- 0.14) x 10 (12) and k(O(3) + cis-CF(3)CH=CHF) = (1.65 +/- 0.16) x 10 (21) cm(3) molecule (1) s (1) in 700 Torr of N(2)/O(2) diluent at 296 K. The OH initiated oxidation of cis-CF(3)CH=CHF gives CF(3)CHO and HCOF in molar yields which are indistinguishable from 100%. The atmospheric lifetime of cis-CF(3)CH=CHF is determined by its reaction with OH and is approximately 10 days. cis-CF(3)CH=CHF has an integrated IR absorption cross section (600-2000 cm (1)) of (1.71 +/- 0.09) x 10 (16) cm molecule (1) and a global warming potential of approximately 3 (100 year time horizon). Quoted uncertainties reflect two standard deviations from least squares regression analyses. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9684,2009,2,3,Atmospheric chemistry of perfluorobutenes (CF(3)CF=CFCF(3) and CF(3)CF(2)CF=CF(2)): Kinetics and mechanisms of reactions with OH radicals and chlorine atoms| IR spectra| global warming potentials| and oxidation to perfluorocarboxylic acids,Relative rate techniques were used to determine k(Cl + CF(3)CF=CFCF(3)) = (7.27 +/- 0.88) x 10(-12)| k(Cl + CF(3)CF(2)CF=CF(2)) (1.79 +/- 0.41) x 10-(11)| k(OH + CF(3)CF=CFCF(3)) = (4.82 +/- 1.15) x 10(-13)| and k(OH + CF(3)CF(2)CF=CF(2)) (1.94 +/- 0.27) x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) in 700 Torr of air or N(2) diluent at 296 K. The chlorine atom- and OH radical-initiated oxidation of CF(3)CF=CFCF(3) in 700 Torr of air gives CF(3)C(O)F in molar yields of 196 +/- 11 and 218 +/- 20%| respectively. Chlorine atom-initiated oxidation of CF(3)CF(2)CF=CF(2) gives molar yields of 97 +/- 9% CF(3)CF(2)C(O)F and 97 +/- 9% COF(2). OH radical-initiated oxidation of CF(3)CF(2)CF=CF(2) gives molar yields of 110 +/- 15% CF(3)CF(2)C(O)F and 99 +/- 8% COF(2). The atmospheric fate of CF(3)CF(2)C(O)F and CF(3)C(O)F is hydrolysis to give CF(3)CF(2)C(C)OH and CF3C(O)OH. The atmospheric lifetimes of CF(3)CF=CFCF(3) and CF(3)CF(2)CF=CF(2) are determined by reaction with OH radicals and are approximately 24 and 6 days| respectively. The contribution of CF(3)CF=CFCF(3) and CF(3)CF(2)CF=CF(2) to radiative forcing of climate change will be negligible. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10127,2009,3,3,Atmospheric Chemistry of Sulfuryl Fluoride: Reaction with OH Radicals| CI Atoms and O(3)| Atmospheric Lifetime| IR Spectrum| and Global Warming Potential,Sulfuryl fluoride (SO(2)F(2)) is a radiatively active industrial chemical released into the atmosphere in significant (ktonne/year) quantities. The potential for SO(2)F(2) to contribute to radiative forcing of climate change needs to be assessed. Long path length FTIR/smog chamber techniques were used to investigate the kinetics of the gas-phase reactions of CI atoms| OH radicals| and O(3) with SO(2)F(2)| in 700 Torr total pressure of air or N(2) at 296 +/- 1 K. Upper limits of k(CI + SO(2)F(2)) < 9 x 10(-19)| k(OH + SO(2)F(2)) < 1.7 x 10(-14) and k(O(3) + SO(2)F(2)) < 5.5 x 10(-2) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) were determined| Reaction with CI atoms| OH radicals| or O(3) does not provide an efficient removal mechanism for SO(2)F(2). The infrared spectrum of SO(2)F(2) is reported and a radiative efficiency of 0.196 W m(-2) ppbv(-1) was calculated. Historic production data estimates are presented which provide an upper limit for expected atmospheric concentrations. The radiative forcing of climate change associated with emissions of SO(2)F(2) depends critically on the atmospheric lifetime of SO(2)F(2). Further research is urgently needed to define the magnitude of potential nonatmospheric sinks. 9942,2009,2,4,Attribution of the Seasonality and Regionality in Climate Trends over the United States during 1950-2000,The observed climate trends over the United States during 1950-2000 exhibit distinct seasonality and regionality. The surface air temperature exhibits a warming trend during winter| spring| and early summer and a modest countrywide cooling trend in late summer and fall| with the strongest warming occurring over the northern United States in spring. Precipitation trends are positive in all seasons| with the largest trend occurring over the central and southern United States in fall. This study investigates the causes of the seasonality and regionality of those trends| with a focus on the cooling and wetting trends in the central United States during late summer and fall. In particular| the authors examine the link between the seasonality and regionality of the climate trends over the United States and the leading patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability| including a global warming (GW) pattern and a Pacific decadal variability (PDV) pattern. A series of idealized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments were performed forced by SST trends associated with these leading SST patterns| as well as the residual trend pattern ( obtained by removing the GW and PDV contributions). The results show that the observed seasonal and spatial variations of the climate trends over the United States are to a large extent explained by changes in SST. Among the leading patterns of SST variability| the PDV pattern plays a prominent role in producing both the seasonality and regionality of the climate trends over the United States. In particular| it is the main contributor to the apparent cooling and wetting trends over the central United States. The residual SST trend| a manifestation of phase changes of the Atlantic multidecadal SST variation during 1950-2000| also exerts influences that show strong seasonality with important contributions to the central U. S. temperature and precipitation during the summer and fall seasons. In contrast| the response over the United States to the GW SST pattern is an overall warming with little seasonality or regional variation. These results highlight the important contributions of decadal and multidecadal variability in the Pacific and Atlantic in explaining the observed seasonality and regionality of the climate trends over the United States during the period of 1950-2000. 10278,2009,3,3,Automotive Air-Conditioning SystemsHistorical Developments| the State of Technology| and Future Trends,Automotive air-conditioning (A/C) or mobile air-conditioning (MAC) systems have played an important role in human comfort and to some extent in human safety during vehicle driving in varied atmospheric conditions. It has become an essential part of the vehicles of all categories worldwide. After discussing the basic operation of the A/C system| a brief summary is provided on historical development of the vehicular A/C system| with refrigerant history from the inception of the A/C system to future systems: R12| R134a| and enhanced R134a A/C system| and next-generation refrigerants having no ozone depletion potential in the stratosphere and global warming potential less than 150. The discussion also includes an enhanced MAC system with R134a| and the direct and indirect emissions from vehicles impacting global warming due to the use of the A/C system. This would explain why we continue to change the refrigerants in the automotive A/C system in spite of billions of dollars of cost for the previous refrigerant change (from R12 to R134a). The system design considerations are then outlined for minimizing the impact of A/C operation on the vehicle fuel consumption. Finally| new concepts of design of A/C system and vehicle heat load reduction ideas are discussed to further minimize the impact of A/C system operation on the environment without impacting human comfort. It is anticipated that this article will provide the overall and detailed prospective of the A/C system developments and provide an opportunity to the researchers to accelerate research and development for the refrigerant changeover and A/C system and component optimization and cost reduction. 858,2009,3,2,Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century,Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) nitrogen oxides (NO.)| aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate)| and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years| despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr(-1) between 2000 and 2007| resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%| fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000-2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was similar to 55 mW m(-2) (23-87 mW m(-2)| 90% likelihood range)| which was 3.5% (range 1.3-10%. 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005-78 mW m(-2) (38-139 mW m(-2)| 90% likelihood range)| which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2-14%| 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SIZES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7-3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0-4.0 over the 2000 value| representing 4-4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e.| beyond the aviation sector) CO(2) emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level| but no agreement has been reached at a global level. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10347,2009,3,4,Avoided global warming emissions with the adoption of biofuel policies in Spain,The objective of this study is to assess the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in the production and use of biofuels in Spain considering different crop production alternatives| including the possible import of raw materials. Avoided GHG emissions due to the substitution of conventional transport fuels with biofuels are then quantified. The studied biofuels are bioethanol from cereal crops and biodiesel from crude vegetable oil and waste vegetable oil. Several blends of these biofuels with gasoline and diesel are also studied. A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of these fuels is carried out. The stakeholders were involved early in the process| setting the scope of the analysis and providing the relevant data. The results shown are GHG emissions in the production and distribution of these fuels. The benefits| in terms of GHG savings| of the adoption of the biofuel introduction objectives at the national and European levels are also quantified. 10248,2009,2,4,Bacterial communities closely associated with coral tissues vary under experimental and natural reef conditions and thermal stress,The coral holobiont model highlights the integral role bacteria play in the health of reef-building corals. Documenting the natural diversity of bacterial communities within| and closely associated with| coral tissues provides information on the diversity| interaction and roles of bacteria to the function of reef-building corals. Fluorescence in situ hybridisation was used to visualise bacterial communities closely associated with the tissues of experimentally manipulated reef corals to determine how tissue-associated coral-bacterial interactions vary from normal associations in apparently healthy reef corals| to those occurring in controlled and thermally stressed experimental conditions. Branches of 2 coral species of the Great Barrier Reef| Acropora aspera and Stylophora pistillata| were collected from reefs adjacent to Heron Island and were maintained in controlled outdoor flow-through aquaria conditions. Following acclimation| the branches were stressed using elevated temperatures to investigate the in situ (within-tissue) bacterial community changes. In situ bacterial community dynamics were found to vary not only due to maintenance within the aquaria conditions| but also following coral bleaching. An aggregation of rod-shaped gamma-proteobacteria was evident within the gastrodermis of corals regardless of health or bleaching status| consistent with aggregations described within other coral species. However| bacterial colonisation of the tissues occurred only following the temperature-induced bleaching of the coral tissues. This study demonstrates that the natural bacterial communities of corals are severely altered during stress associated with experimental and field conditions| which suggests a potential mechanism for the link between disease and stresses arising from global warming. 10230,2009,2,4,Bacterial community structure and carbon turnover in permafrost-affected soils of the Lena Delta| northeastern Siberia,Arctic permafrost environments store large amounts of organic carbon. As a result of global warming| intensified permafrost degradation and release of significant quantities of the currently conserved organic matter is predicted for high latitudes. To improve our understanding of the present and future carbon dynamics in climate sensitive permafrost ecosystems| the present study investigates structure and carbon turnover of the bacterial community in a permafrost-affected soil of the Lena Delta (72 degrees 22'N| 126 degrees 28'E) in northeastern Siberia. 16S rRNA gene clone libraries revealed the presence of all major soil bacterial groups and of the canditate divisions OD1 and OP11. A shift within the bacterial community was observed along the soil profile indicated by the absence of Alphaproteobacteria and Betaproteobacteria and a simultaneous increase in abundance and diversity of fermenting bacteria like Firmicutes and Actinobacteria near the permafrost table. BIOLOG EcoPlates were used to describe the spectrum of utilized carbon sources of the bacterial community in different horizons under in situ temperature conditions in the presence and absence of oxygen. The results revealed distinct qualitative differences in the substrates used and the turnover rates under oxic and anoxic conditions. It can be concluded that constantly negative redox potentials as characteristic for the near permafrost table horizons of the investigated soil did effectively shape the structure of the indigenous bacterial community limiting its phylum-level diversity and carbon turnover capacity. 10029,2009,3,3,Bamboo: a Possible Approach to the Control of Global Warming,Bamboo is the fastest-growing plant oil Earth| and it has all excellent capability of fixing carbon| it was clocked surging skyward as fast grow as 44cm in a 24-hour period and its carbon accumulation reaches as high as about 1.83kg in a 28-day period of its early ontogeny in Lin-an City. That means a bamboo in its early ontogeny can absorb about 3.73 cubic meter of carbon dioxide| equivalent to absorbing about 2 cars' CO(2) emissions in a day. It is Concluded that bamboo is all efficient candidate to control global warming. The observation is made in Lin-an City| Zhejiang province| China from April 13 to May 10| 2005. 9549,2009,4,4,Bayesian calibration of the nitrous oxide emission module of an agro-ecosystem model,Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) is the main biogenic greenhouse gas contributing to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate therefore requires a capacity to predict N(2)O emissions in relation to environmental conditions and crop management. Biophysical models simulating the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in agro-ecosystems have a unique potential to explore these relationships| but are fraught with high uncertainties in their parameters due to their variations over time and space. Here| we used a Bayesian approach to calibrate the parameters of the N(2)O submodel of the agro-ecosystem model CERES-EGC. The submodel simulates N(2)O emissions from the nitrification and denitrification processes| which are modelled as the product of a potential rate with three dimensionless factors related to soil water content| nitrogen content and temperature. These equations involve a total set of 15 parameters| four of which are site-specific and should be measured on site| while the other 11 are considered global| i.e. invariant over time and space. We first gathered prior information on the model parameters based on the literature review| and assigned them uniform probability distributions. A Bayesian method based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was subsequently developed to update the parameter distributions against a database of seven different field-sites in France. Three parallel Markov chains were run to ensure a convergence of the algorithm. This site-specific calibration significantly reduced the spread in parameter distribution| and the uncertainty in the N(2)O simulations. The model's root mean square error (RMSE) was also abated by 73% across the field sites compared to the prior parameterization. The Bayesian calibration was subsequently applied simultaneously to all data sets| to obtain better global estimates for the parameters initially deemed universal. This made it possible to reduce the RMSE by 33% on average| compared to the uncalibrated model. These global parameter values may be used to obtain more realistic estimates of N(2)O emissions from arable soils at regional or continental scales. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 777,2009,2,4,Be careful for neglected diseases,Neglected diseases boost (Nature| 457: 772| 2009)| which will become greater threat to human health especially in tropical regions. In my opinion| it is the inherent result of climate warming. An allometrical scaling is suggested to support my opinion| this can also explain why swine flu does not affect pigs very much| but human beings fatally. 9937,2009,3,4,Benefit Evaluation of Wind Turbine Generators in Wind Farms Using Capacity-Factor Analysis and Economic-Cost Methods,Due to the recent price spike of the international oil and the concern of global warming| the development and deployment of renewable energy become one of the most important energy policies around the globe. Currently| there are different capacities and hub heights for commercial wind turbine generators (WTGs). To fully capture wind energy| different wind farms (WFs) should select adequate capacity of WTGs to effectively harvest wind energy and maximize their economic benefit. To establish selection criterion| this paper first derives the equations for capacity factor (CF) and pairing performance (PP) of WTGs using Weibull and Rayleigh distribution functions. Five commercial WFs in Taiwan are used as sample systems for comparative analyses. This paper combines Weibull function| cubic mean wind speed| and four existing economic-analysis methods to study different values of capacity and hub height for WTGs that have been installed in Taiwan. Important outcomes affecting wind cost of energy in comparison with economic results using the proposed economic-analysis methods for different WFs are also presented. 9494,2009,3,4,Benefits| risks| and costs of stratospheric geoengineering,Injecting sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere has been suggested as a means of geoengineering to cool the planet and reduce global warming. The decision to implement such a scheme would require a comparison of its benefits| dangers| and costs to those of other responses to global warming| including doing nothing. Here we evaluate those factors for stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate aerosols. Using existing U.S. military fighter and tanker planes| the annual costs of injecting aerosol precursors into the lower stratosphere would be several billion dollars. Using artillery or balloons to loft the gas would be much more expensive. We do not have enough information to evaluate more exotic techniques| such as pumping the gas up through a hose attached to a tower or balloon system. Anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection would cool the planet| stop the melting of sea ice and land-based glaciers| slow sea level rise| and increase the terrestrial carbon sink| but produce regional drought| ozone depletion| less sunlight for solar power| and make skies less blue. Furthermore it would hamper Earth-based optical astronomy| do nothing to stop ocean acidification| and present many ethical and moral issues. Further work is needed to quantify many of these factors to allow informed decision-making. Citation: Robock| A.| A. Marquardt| B. Kravitz| and G. Stenchikov (2009)| Benefits| risks| and costs of stratospheric geoengineering| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L19703| doi:10.1029/2009GL039209. 946,2009,2,4,Beta diversity along environmental gradients: implications of habitat specialization in tropical montane landscapes,Understanding how species in a diverse regional pool are spatially distributed with respect to habitat types is a longstanding problem in ecology. Tropical species are expected to be specialists along environmental gradients| and this should result in rapid compositional change (high beta diversity) across landscapes| particularly when alpha diversity is a small fraction of regional diversity. Corollary challenges are then to identify controlling environmental variables and to ask whether species cluster into discrete community types along a gradient. We investigated patterns of avian species' distributions in the Tilaran mountains of Costa Rica between 1000 m and 1700 m elevation where a strong moisture gradient exists. High beta diversity was found with both auditory counts adjusted for detectability and extensive capture data| revealing nearly complete change in community composition over a few kilometres on the Pacific slope. As predicted| this beta diversity was roughly twice as high as on temperate mountainsides. Partial Mantel analyses and canonical correspondence analysis indicate that change in species composition is highly correlated with change in moisture (and correlated epiphyte cover) at different distances from the continental divide on the Pacific slope. Altitude was not a good predictor of change in species composition| as species composition varies substantially among sites at the same elevation. Detrended correspondence analysis and cluster analysis revealed a zone of rapid transition separating a distinct cloud forest community from rainshadow forest. On the Caribbean slope| where a shallower moisture gradient was predicted to result in lower beta diversity| we found lower rates of compositional change and more continuous species turnover. Results suggest that habitat specialization of birds is likely a strong ecological force generating high beta diversity in montane landscapes. Despite overall rapid rates of species turnover| zones of relatively coherent composition could be identified. Landscapes with such high beta diversity are common in the tropics| although little studied. They offer high benefit/cost opportunities for conservation| particularly as climate change threatens to alter the species composition of communities of habitat specialists. 959,2009,4,4,Beyond data management: how ecoinformatics can benefit environmental monitoring programs,We review ways in which the new discipline of ecoinformatics is changing how environmental monitoring data are managed| synthesized| and analyzed. Rapid improvements in information technology and strong interest in bio-diversity and sustainable ecosystems are driving a vigorous phase of development in ecological databases. Emerging data standards and protocols enable these data to be shared in ways that have previously been difficult. We use the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Coastal Assessment (NCA) as an example. The NCA has collected biological| chemical| and physical data from thousands of stations around the U.S. coasts since 1990. NCA data that were collected primarily to assess the ecological condition of the U.S. coasts can be used in innovative ways| such as biogeographical studies to analyze species invasions. NCA application of ecoinformatics tools leads to new possibilities for integrating the hundreds of thousands of NCA species records with other databases to address broad-scale and long-term questions such as environmental impacts| global climate change| and species invasions. 10020,2009,2,4,Beyond gradual warming: extreme weather events alter flower phenology of European grassland and heath species,Shifts in the phenology of plant and animal species or in the migratory arrival of birds are seen as 'fingerprints' of global warming. However| even if such responses have been documented in large continent-wide datasets of the northern hemisphere| all studies to date correlate the phenological pattern of various taxa with gradual climatic trends. Here| we report a previously unobserved phenomenon: severe drought and heavy rain events caused phenological shifts in plants of the same magnitude as one decade of gradual warming. We present data from two vegetation periods in an experimental setting containing the first evidence of shifted phenological response of 10 grassland and heath species to simulated 100-year extreme weather events in Central Europe. Averaged over all species| 32 days of drought significantly advanced the mid-flowering date by 4 days. The flowering length was significantly extended by 4 days. Heavy rainfall (170 mm over 14 days) had no significant effect on the mid-flowering date. However| heavy rainfall reduced the flowering length by several days. Observed shifts were species-specific| (e.g. drought advanced the mid-flowering date for Holcus lanatus by 1.5 days and delayed the mid-flowering date for Calluna vulgaris by 5.7 days| heavy rain advanced mid-flowering date of Lotus corniculatus by 26.6 days and shortened the flowering length of the same species by 36.9 days). Interestingly| the phenological response of individual species was modified by community composition. For example| the mid-flowering date of C. vulgaris was delayed after drought by 9.3 days in communities composed of grasses and dwarf shrubs compared with communities composed of dwarf shrubs only. This indicates that responses to extreme events are context specific. Additionally| the phenological response of experimental communities to extreme weather events can be modified by the functional diversity of a stand. Future studies on phenological response patterns related to climate change would profit from explicitly addressing the role of extreme weather events. 9715,2009,4,4,Bi-temporal characterization of land surface temperature in relation to impervious surface area| NDVI and NDBI| using a sub-pixel image analysis,As more than 50% of the human population are situated in cities of the world| urbanization has become an important contributor to global warming due to remarkable urban heat island (UHI) effect. UHI effect has been linked to the regional climate| environment| and socio-economic development. In this study| Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) imagery| respectively acquired in 1989 and 2001| were utilized to assess urban area thermal characteristics in Fuzhou| the capital city of Fujian province in south-eastern China. As a key indicator for the assessment of urban environments| sub-pixel impervious surface area (ISA) was mapped to quantitatively determine urban land-use extents and urban surface thermal patterns. In order to accurately estimate urban surface types| high-resolution imagery was utilized to generate the proportion of impervious surface areas. Urban thermal characteristics was further analysed by investigating the relationships between the land surface temperature (LST)| percent impervious surface area| and two indices| the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI). The results show that correlations between NDVI and LST are rather weak| but there is a strong positive correlation between percent ISA| NDBI and LST. This suggests that percent ISA| combined with LST| and NDBI| can quantitatively describe the spatial distribution and temporal variation of urban thermal patterns and associated land-use/land-cover (LULC) conditions. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1015,2009,3,4,Bio-methanol: How energy choices in the western United States can help mitigate global climate change,Converting available biomass from municipal| agricultural and forest wastes to bio-methanol can result in significant environmental and economic benefits. Keeping these benefits in mind| one plausible scenario discussed here is the potential to produce energy using bio-methanol in five states of the western United States. In this scenario| the bio-methanol produced is from different biomass sources and used as a substitute for fossil fuels in energy production. In the U.S. West| forest materials are the dominant biomass waste source in Idaho| Montana| Oregon and Washington| while in California| the greatest amount of available biomass is from municipal wastes. Using a 100% rate of substitution| bio-methanol produced from these sources can replace an amount equivalent to most or all of the gasoline consumed by motor vehicles in each state. In contrast| when bio-methanol powered fuel cells are used to produce electricity| it is possible to generate 12-25% of the total electricity consumed annually in these five states. As a gasoline substitute| bio-methanol can optimally reduce vehicle C emissions by 2-29 Tg of C (23-81% of the total emitted by each state). Alternatively| if bio-methanol supported fuel cells are used to generate electricity| from 2 to 32 Tg of C emissions can be avoided. The emissions avoided| in this case| could equate to 25-32% of the total emissions produced by these particular western states when fossil fuels are used to generate electricity. The actual C emissions avoided will be lower than the estimates here because C emissions from the methanol production processes are not included; however| such emissions are expected to be relatively low. In general| there is less carbon emitted when bio-methanol is used to generate electricity with fuel cells than when it is used as a motor vehicle fuel. In the state of Washington| thinning "high-fire-risk" small stems| namely 5.1-22.9 cm diameter trees| from wildfire-prone forests and using them to produce methanol for electricity generation with fuel cells would avoid C emissions of 3.7-7.3 Mg C/ha. Alternatively| when wood-methanol produced from the high-fire-risk wood is used as a gasoline substitute| 3.3-6.6 Mg C/ha of carbon emissions are avoided. If these same "high-fire-risk" woody stems were burned during a wildfire 7.9 Mg C/ha would be emitted in the state of Washington alone. Although detailed economic analyses of producing methanol from biomass are in its infancy| we believe that converting biomass into methanol and substituting it for fossilfuel-based energy production is a viable option in locations that have high biomass availability. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9848,2009,3,2,Bio-sequestration of carbon dioxide using carbonic anhydrase enzyme purified from Citrobacter freundii,The increase in the atmospheric concentrations of one of the vital green house gasses| carbon dioxide| due to anthropogenic interventions has led to several undesirable consequences such as global warming and related changes. In the global effort to combat the predicted disaster| several CO(2) capture and storage technologies are being deliberated. One of the most promising biological carbon dioxide sequestration technologies is the enzyme catalyzed carbon dioxide sequestration into bicarbonates which was endeavored in this study with a purified C. freundii SW3 beta-carbonic anhydrase (CA). An extensive screening process for biological sequestration using CA has been defined. Six bacteria with high CA activity were screened out of 102 colonies based on plate assay and presence of CA in these bacteria was further emphasized by activity staining and Western blot. The identity of selected bacteria was confirmed by 16S rDNA analysis. CA was purified to homogeneity from C. freundii SW3 by subsequent gel filtration and ion exchange chromatography which resulted in a 24 kDa polypeptide and this is in accordance with the Western blot results. The effect of host on metal ions| cations and anions which influence activity of the enzyme in sequestration studies suggests that mercury and HCO(3) (-) ion almost completely inhibit the enzyme whereas sulfate ion and zinc enhances carbonic anhydrase activity. Calcium carbonate deposition was observed in calcium chloride solution saturated with carbon dioxide catalyzed by purified enzyme and whereas a sharp decrease in calcium carbonate formation has been noted in purified enzyme samples inhibited by EDTA and acetazolamide. 9481,2009,4,4,Biochemical reaction and diffusion in seafloor gas hydrate capillaries: Implications for gas hydrate stability,A one-dimensional mathematical model is presented to describe biochemical reactions and diffusion occurring within massive seafloor gas hydrates. Methanogenesis and anaerobic methane oxidation coupled with sulfate reduction are the two reactions analyzed with emphasis on gas hydrate stability. Many numerical simulations are being developed to predict gas hydrate formation| dissociation| and stability. The model complements these simulations as a subunit by incorporating the consequences of kinetic and transport processes occurring within seafloor gas hydrate capillaries. Better predictions of gas hydrate stability will assist in understanding the role of gas hydrates in the global carbon cycle. particularly as pertaining to global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 793,2009,3,3,Biodiversity in forest carbon sequestration initiatives: not just a side benefit,One way of mitigating global climate change is protecting and enhancing biosphere carbon stocks. The success of mitigation initiatives depends on the long-term net balance between carbon gains and losses. The biodiversity of ecological communities| including composition and variability of traits of plants and soil organisms| can alter this balance in several ways. This influence can be direct| through determining the magnitude| turnover rate| and longevity of carbon stocks in soil and vegetation. It can also be indirect through influencing the value and therefore the protection that societies give to ecosystems and their carbon stocks. Biodiversity of forested ecosystems has important consequences for long-term carbon storage| and thus warrants incorporation into the design| implementation| and regulatory framework of mitigation initiatives. 9947,2009,2,4,Biodiversity in the high ranges of the Alps: Ethnobotanical and climate change perspectives,Alpine plants| those predominantly occurring above a treeline| contribute significantly to biodiversity in mountain systems. Thus| one might expect a considerable part of the Alpine flora to be ethnobotanically relevant as has been documented for the Eastern Himalaya. As climate change| especially global warming| may lead to the extinction of Alpine plants| at least locally| loss of alpine species might be important to local people who rely on traditional medicine. How this holds for the Alps will be discussed in this contribution. The Alps are different from the Himalayas in that land use has changed dramatically during the past century. Rural life and culture has changed and much land has been abandoned or is under modern land use systems (industrial farming| tourism| urbanisation). Though much traditional knowledge has disappeared| traditional medicinal practices are still popular as supplemental to modern medicine. in a representative region in the Central Alps| traditional healers use 268 plants species of which 158 can be considered native to that area. Of the 25 predominantly Alpine species three are restricted to the highest Alps where warming might lead to their extinction. In the Alps some ornamental plants are of particular interest from an ethnobotanical point of view. People are apparently much more interested in what happens to Edelweiss (Leontopodium alpinum) than to medicinal plants. Other famous ornamentals (Leontopodium| Rhododendron| Gentiana| Anemone species) do not grow at critical high elevations| but could disappear locally from mountains which are too low in elevation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10219,2009,2,4,Biodiversity of diatom assemblages in a Mediterranean semiarid stream: implications for conservation,Many semiarid streams are threatened both by human demands and climatic effects (global warming)| but little is known about their algal biodiversity and their conservation value| especially in Mediterranean areas. The aim of the present study was to evaluate annual changes in the structure and species richness of diatom communities in runs and pools of an oligohaline| semiarid stream in south-eastern Spain| and their relationship with nutrients and hydrology. The pool substrate was covered most of the time by a yellow-brown coat| mainly composed of diatoms and a few cyanophytes (Leptolyngbya). In the runs| cyanophytes were dominant (Rivularia) and diatoms occurred as epiphytes. The diversity of these diatom assemblages was high| particularly in the pools. Some species were present throughout the year| whereas others showed a bimodal growth pattern. Maximum biomasses were reached in summer in the pools and in autumn in the runs| when levels of phosphorus increased as a result of flooding. Species richness and diversity were correlated with hydrology and sulfate concentrations| whereas biomass (as chlorophyll a and ash-free dry weight) was associated with variations in temperature| conductivity and ammonium. These semiarid streams are refuges of biodiversity| representing habitats reliant on cycles of drought and floods| which should be considered in proposals for their conservation. 10270,2009,3,3,Bioethanol as a Vehicular Fuel: A Critical Review,As concern about global warming and dependence on fossil fuels grows| the search for renewable energy sources that reduce CO2 emissions becomes a matter of widespread attention. Production of ethanol (bioethanol) from biomass is one way to reduce both the consumption of crude oil and environmental pollution. Using bioethanol-blended fuel for automobiles can significantly reduce petroleum use and exhaust greenhouse gas emission. While more expensive to produce than other fuel types| bioethanol production boosts the farm economy. Up to 80% of production cost is the cost of feedstock. Bioethanol can be produced from cellulose feedstocks such as corn stalks| rice straw| sugar cane bagasse| pulpwood| switchgrass| and municipal solid waste. 9962,2009,3,4,Biofuel contribution to mitigate fossil fuel CO(2) emissions: Comparing sugar cane ethanol in Brazil with corn ethanol and discussing land use for food production and deforestation,This paper compares the use of sugar cane and corn for the production of ethanol| with a focus on global warming and the current international debate about land use competition for food and biofuel production. The indicators used to compare the products are CO(2) emissions| energy consumption| sugar cane coproducts| and deforestation. The life cycle emission inventory as a methodological tool is taken into account. The sustainability of socioeconomic development and the developing countries' need to overcome barriers form the background against which the Brazilian government energy plans are analyzed. (C) 2009 American Institute of Physics. [DOI: 10.1063/1.3139803] 927,2009,3,2,Biofuel Plantations on Forested Lands: Double Jeopardy for Biodiversity and Climate,The growing demand for biofuels is promoting the expansion of a number of agricultural commodities| including oil palm (Elaeis guineensis). Oil-palm plantations cover over 13 million ha| primarily in Southeast Asia| where they have directly or indirectly replaced tropical rainforest. We explored the impact of the spread of oil-palm plantations on greenhouse gas emission and biodiversity. We assessed changes in carbon stocks with changing land use and compared this with the amount of fossil-fuel carbon emission avoided through its replacement by biofuel carbon. We estimated it would take between 75 and 93 years for the carbon emissions saved through use of biofuel to compensate for the carbon lost through forest conversion| depending on how the forest was cleared. If the original habitat was peatland| carbon balance would take more than 600 years. Conversely| planting oil palms on degraded grassland would lead to a net removal of carbon within 10 years. These estimates have associated uncertainty| but their magnitude and relative proportions seem credible. We carried out a meta-analysis of published faunal studies that compared forest with oil palm. We found that plantations supported species-poor communities containing few forest species. Because no published data on flora were available| we present results from our sampling of plants in oil palm and forest plots in Indonesia. Although the species richness of pteridophytes was higher in plantations| they held few forest species. Trees| lianas| epiphytic orchids| and indigenous palms were wholly absent from oil-palm plantations. The majority of individual plants and animals in oil-palm plantations belonged to a small number of generalist species of low conservation concern. As countries strive to meet obligations to reduce carbon emissions under one international agreement (Kyoto Protocol)| they may not only fail to meet their obligations under another (Convention on Biological Diversity) but may actually hasten global climate change. Reducing deforestation is likely to represent a more effective climate-change mitigation strategy than converting forest for biofuel production| and it may help nations meet their international commitments to reduce biodiversity loss. 9919,2009,2,4,Biological vulnerability in the Elqui Valley (Coquimbo Region| Chile) to economically important arthropods,J. Pizarro-Araya| J. Cepeda-Pizarro| J.E. Barriga| and A. Bodini. 2009. Biological vulnerability in the Elqui Valley (Coquimbo Region| Chile) to economically important arthropods. Cien. Inv. Agr. 36(2):215-228. Current climate conditions in north-central Chile (25 degrees 57'-32 degrees 13'S 71 degrees 43'-68 degrees 16'W) arc characterized by increase temperatures and decreasing rainfall. Global warming is expected to alter the hydrology and ecoclimatic characteristics of north-central basins with Multiple effects| including changes in plant and arthropod phenology and biodiversity. Among these basins| the Elqui Valley (29 degrees 50'S| 70 degrees 52'W) stands out for its large population and the economic importance of tourism and agriculture. The taxonomic composition of agriculturally and medically important arthropods was studied in three locations in the Elqui Valley by manual capture of specimens and interviews with farmers| agricultural workers| and local leaders. Out of a total of 145 species of insects and 36 species of arachnids| 36 insects and I arachnid are considered pests and are known to attack one or more host plants. four orders dominated the insect suryes: Coleoptera (31.3%|. of the total captured)| Orthoptera (13.9%)| Hymenoptera (9.3%)| and Lepidoptera (13.4%). Sonic agriculturally important insects include Macrosiphum| Rhopalosiphum. Myzus (Aphididae)| Coccus| Parthenolecanium| Saissetia (Coccidae) and Pseudococcus (Pseudococcidae). Sonic medically important species are those in the zoonotic genera Loxosceles| Latrodectus| Triatoma| and Mepraia. The study of agriculturally and medically important arthropods will improve the design of better of management plans to minimize the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change. 9488,2009,3,4,Biomass and greenhouse-gas emissions from land-use change in Brazil's Amazonian "arc of deforestation": The states of Mato Grosso and Rondonia,We Calculate greenhouse-gas emissions from land-use change in Mato Grosso and Rondonia| two states that are responsible for more than half of the deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia. In addition to deforestation (clearing of forest)| we also estimate clearing rates and emissions for savannas (especially the cerrado| or central Brazilian savanna)| which have not been included in Brazil's monitoring of deforestation. The rate of clearing of savannas was much more rapid in the 1980s and 1990s than in recent years. Over the 2006-2007 period (one year) 204 x 10(3) ha of forest and 30 x 10(3) ha of savanna were cleared in Mato Grosso| representing a gross loss of biomass carbon (above + belowground) of 66.0 and 1.8 x 10(6) MgC| respectively. In the same year in Rondonia| 130 x 10(3) ha of forest was cleared| representing gross losses of biomass of 40.4 x 10(6) MgC. Data on clearing of savanna in Rondonia are unavailable| but the rate is believed to be small in the year in question. Net losses of carbon stock for Mato Grosso forest| Mato Grosso savanna and Rondonia forest were 29 0| 0.5 and 18.5 x 10(6) MgC| respectively. Including soil carbon loss and the effects of trace-gas emissions (using global warming potentials for CH(4) and N(2)O from the IPCC's 2007 Fourth Assessment Report)| the impact of these emission sources totaled 30 9| 0.6 and 25.4 x 10(6) Mg CO(2)-equivalent C| respectively. These impacts approximate the combined effect of logging and clearing because the forest biomasses used are based on surveys conducted before many forests were exposed to logging. The total emission from Mato Grosso and Rondonia of 56.9 x 10(6) Mg CO(2)-equivalent C can be compared with Brazil's annual emission of approximately 80 x 10(6) MgC from fossil-fuel combustion. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9397,2009,3,4,Biomass burning in Brazil's Amazonian "arc of deforestation": Burning efficiency and charcoal formation in a fire after mechanized clearing at Feliz Natal| Mato Grosso,Estimates of greenhouse-gas emissions from deforestation are highly uncertain because of high variability in key parameters and because of the limited number of studies providing field measurements of these parameters. One such parameter is burning efficiency| which determines how much of the original forest's aboveground carbon stock will be released in the burn| as well as how much will later be released by decay and how much will remain as charcoal. In this paper we examined the fate of biomass from a semideciduous tropical forest in the "arc of deforestation|" where clearing activity is concentrated along the southern edge of the Amazon forest. We estimated carbon content| charcoal formation and burning efficiency by direct measurements (cutting and weighing) and by line-intersect sampling (LIS) done along the axis of each plot before and after burning of felled vegetation. The total aboveground dry biomass found here (219.3 Mg ha(-1)) is lower than the values found in studies that have been done in other parts of the Amazon region. Values for burning efficiency (65%) and charcoal formation (6.0%| or 5.98 Mg C ha(-1)) were much higher than those found in past studies in tropical areas. The percentage of trunk biomass lost in burning (49%) was substantially higher than has been found in previous studies. This difference may be explained by the concentration of more stems in the smaller diameter classes and the low humidity of the fuel (the dry season was unusually long in 2007| the year of the burn). This study provides the first measurements of forest burning parameters for a group of forest types that is now undergoing rapid deforestation. The burning parameters estimated here indicate substantially higher burning efficiency than has been found in other Amazonian forest types. Quantification of burning efficiency is critical to estimates of trace-gas emissions from deforestation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9575,2009,4,4,Biotransformation of trans-1|1|1|3-tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234ze),trans-1|1|1|3-Tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234ze) is a non-ozone-depleting fluorocarbon replacement with a low global warming potential and is developed as foam blowing agent. The biotransformation of HFO-1234ze was investigated after inhalation exposure. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to air containing 2000; 10|000; or 50|000 ppm (n = 5/concentration) HFO-1234ze. Male B6C3F1 mice were only exposed to 50|000 ppm HFO-1234ze. All inhalation exposures were conducted for 6 h in a dynamic exposure chamber. After the end of the exposures| animals were individually housed in metabolic cages and urines were collected at 6 or 12 h intervals for 48 h. For metabolite identification| urine samples were analyzed by (1)H-coupled and (1)H-decoupled (19)F-NMR and by LC/MS-MS or GC/MS. Metabolites were identified by (19)F-NMR chemical shifts| signal multiplicity| (1)H-(19)F coupling constants and by comparison with synthetic reference compounds. In urine samples of rats exposed to 50|000 ppm HFO-1234ze| the predominant metabolite was S-(3|3|3-trifluoro-trans-propenyl)-mercaptolactic acid and accounted for 66% of all integrated 19F-NMR signals in urines. No 19F-NMR signals were found in spectra of rat urine samples collected after inhalation exposure to 2000 or 10|000 ppm HFO-1234ze likely due to insufficient sensitivity. S-(3|3|3-Trifluoro-transpropenyl)-L-cysteine| N-acetyl-S-(3|3.3-trifluoro-trans-propenyl)-L-cysteine and 3|3|3-trifluoropropionic acid were also present as metabolites in urine samples of rats and mice. A presumed amino acid conjugate of 3|3|3-trifluoropropionic acid was the major metabolite of HFO-1234ze in urine samples of mice exposed to 50|000 ppm and related to 18% of total integrated 19F-NMR signals. Quantification of three metabolites in urines of rats and mice was performed| using LC/MS-MS and GC/MS. The quantified amounts of the metabolites excreted with urine in both mice and rats| suggest only a low extent (<1% of dose received) of biotransformation of HFO-1234ze and 95% of all metabolites were excreted within 18 h after the end of the exposures (t(1/2) app. 6 h). The obtained results suggest that HFO-1234ze is likely subjected to an addition-elimination reaction with glutathione and to a CYP 450 mediated epoxidation at low rates. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 9415,2009,2,4,Blast from the Past: Melting Glaciers as a Relevant Source for Persistent Organic Pollutants,In this study| the hypothesis that melting Alpine glaciers may represent a secondary source of persistent organic chemicals is investigated. To this end| a dated sediment core from a glacier-fed lake (Lake Oberaar| Switzerland) was analyzed for a wide range of persistent organic pollutants| organochlorine pesticides| and synthetic musk fragrances. Input fluxes of all organochlorines increased in the 1950s| peaked in the 1960s-1970s| and decreased again to low levels in the 1980s-1990s. This observation reflects the emission history of these compounds and technical improvements and regulations leading to reduced emissions some decades ago. The input of synthetic musks remained at a high level in the 1950s-1990s| which is consistent with their relatively constant production throughout the second half of the 20th century. Since the late 1990s| input of all compound classes into the high-Alpine Lake Oberaar has increased sharply. Currently| input fluxes of organochlorines are similar to or even higher than in the 1960s-1970s. This second peak supports the hypothesis that there is a relevant release of persistent organic chemicals from melting Alpine glaciers. Considering ongoing global warming and accelerated massive glacier melting predicted for the future| our study indicates the potential for dire environmental impacts due to pollutants delivered into pristine mountainous areas. 9609,2009,5,4,Bone stable isotopic signatures ((15)N| (18)O) as tracers of temperature variation during the Late-glacial and early Holocene: case study on red deer Cervus elaphus from Rochedane (Jura| France),Stable isotopes in mammal bones are mainly used to reconstruct dietary preferences and their use as palaeoclimatic indicators is less developed. However| important variations in (15)N abundances observed in the bone collagen of large mammals during the Late-glacial and early Holocene have been tentatively linked to a general increase in temperature. In order to test this hypothesis| we analysed nitrogen and oxygen isotopic abundances from bones of red deer (Cervus elaphus) from the Rochedane site (Jura| France). We observe a clear linear relationship between (15)N and (18)O that demonstrates the effect of temperature on the abundance of (15)N in red deer bone collagen. These results suggest that an increase in soil maturation during global warming of the Late-glacial and early Holocene led to an increase of (15)N in soils and plants that was passed on to their consumers. Red deer seem to be particularly suited for palaeoclimatic reconstruction based on the isotopic signatures of their bones. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 10251,2009,2,4,Boreal forest provenance tests used to predict optimal growth and response to climate change: 2. Black spruce,Height| diameter| and survival data were obtained from 20 range-wide black spruce ( Picea mariana ( Mill.) BSP) provenance trials established from 1973 to 1977. Population response functions based on February minimum temperatures were developed for 23 Ontario and Great Lakes states provenances to predict climate values maximizing height growth for individual seed sources. Site transfer functions based on February maximum temperatures and May maximum temperatures were developed for five test sites to predict climate values maximizing height growth for test locations. Contour lines representing optimal performance were fitted to current (1961-1990) and future (2041-2070) climate grids. For black spruce seed sources from the east of Lake Superior and Lake Huron| optimal height growth was achieved between 45 degrees and 47 degrees N; for the western sources optimal performance moved north between 46 degrees and 48 degrees N. In eastern Ontario| height growth of northern sources may increase with transfer to warmer environments and with future temperature increases. Central sources are currently growing at or close to optimum and will be negatively affected by increased future temperatures. Southern sources may currently benefit from transfer to cooler environments| and the effects of global warming may cause significant height growth loss and the potential extirpation of local populations. 915,2009,2,4,BREEDING BIOLOGY OF THE BARN SWALLOW (HIRUNDO RUSTICA) IN NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH TEMPORAL AND GEOGRAPHIC COMPARISONS TO OTHER NORTH AMERICAN STUDIES,The reproductive output of American barn swallows (Hirundo rustica erythrogaster) was studied over a five year period at a colony in northeast Texas. Clutch size| hatching success| nestling success| and nesting success were all found to vary significantly among years suggesting that the swallows were influenced by annual changes in environmental conditions. However| the observed annual variations in clutch size| hatching success| and nesting success were well within the range observed among 14 other studies in North America. The greatest sources of mortality were hatch failure| followed by infanticide and ectoparasites. These sources of mortality were also common in other studies. Despite the wide geographic range of barn swallows in North America| there were no latitudinal trends in clutch size| hatching success| or nesting success. Lastly| in the 44 years spanned by the analysis| there was no evidence of changes in reproductive output| suggesting that American barn swallows have not yet been obviously impacted by global climate change. 10332,2009,3,4,Bridging data gaps in environmental assessments: Modeling impacts of fine and basic chemical production,The chemical industry is increasing its efforts to reduce the environmental burdens of chemical production. One focus is to implement energy-efficient processes and green technologies early in the process design to maximize environmental efficiency and to reduce costs. However| as data on many chemical products are scarce| many sustainability studies are hampered by the lack of information on production processes| and chemicals are often neglected or only crudely estimated. Models that estimate production data and environmental burdens can be vital tools to aid sustainability efforts. In addition| they are useful for the environmental assessment of chemicals without access to production data| i.e. in supply-chain management or for the assessment of products using chemicals as materials. Using mass and energy flow data on the petrochemical production of 338 chemicals| we developed models that can estimate key production parameters directly from the molecular structure. The data sources were mostly production data provided by industrial partners| extended by data from the ecoinvent database. The predicted parameters were the Cumulative Energy Demand (CED)| the Global Warming Potential (GWP)| the Eco-indicator 99 score| a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method| and the electricity and heat use over the production cycle. Model outputs include a measure of the prediction uncertainty. The median relative errors of the models were between 10% and 30%| within acceptable ranges for estimations. The modelled parameters offer a thorough insight into the environmental performance of a production process and the model estimates can be of great service in process design| supply-chain management and environmental assessments of chemical products in the early planning and design stages where production data are not available. 9596,2009,3,4,Building Up Organic Matter in a Subtropical Paleudult under Legume Cover-Crop-Based Rotations,The potential of conservation management systems to ameliorate degraded agricultural soils and mitigate global warming is related to their potential for long-term stabilization of soil organic matter (SOM). This study was performed in a 19-yr-old experiment that was set up on a degraded Paleudult (220 g kg(-1) clay) in southern Brazil to (i) evaluate the effect of seven no-till crop rotations (grass- and legume-based cover crop systems) and mineral N fertilization (0 and 145 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)) on soil organic C (SOC) stocks (0-17.5-cm depth) and (ii) estimate rates of SOM dynamics in these systems under subtropical climate conditions. Annual C input (shoot + root) ranged from 2.61 to 7.84 Mg ha(-1)| with the highest values in legume-based and N-fertilized cropping systems. The SOC stocks were closely related to C input levels| and a minimum C input of 4.05 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) was estimated to maintain the original SOC stock of 31.38 Mg ha(-1). Based on the one-compartment model of SOM dynamics| the SOM decomposition rate was estimated to be 1.2% and the humification coefficient was estimated to be 9.6%. After 19 yr| the stock of the original SOC decreased to about 24.78 Mg ha(-1)| while accumulation of SOC derived from the crops ranged from 4.26 to 12.79 Mg ha(-1). Our results highlighted the benefits of legume cover crop species in no-till systems for the stabilization of SOC in degraded agricultural soils. 790,2009,2,4,BVOC emissions| photosynthetic characteristics and changes in chloroplast ultrastructure of Platanus orientalis L. exposed to elevated CO(2) and high temperature,To investigate the interactive effects of increasing [CO(2)] and heat wave occurrence on isoprene (IE) and methanol (ME) emissions| Platanus orientalis was grown for one month in ambient (380 mu mol mol(-1)) or elevated (800 mu mol mol(-1)) [CO(2)] and exposed to high temperature (HT) (38 degrees C/4 h). In pre-existing leaves| IE emissions were always higher but ME emissions lower as compared to newly-emerged leaves. They were both stimulated by HT. Elevated [CO(2)] significantly reduced IE in both leaf types| whereas it increased ME in newly-emerged leaves only. In newly-emerged leaves| elevated [CO(2)] decreased photosynthesis and altered the chloroplast ultrastructure and membrane integrity. These harmful effects were amplified by HT. HT did not cause any unfavorable effects in pre-existing leaves| which were characterized by inherently higher IE rates. We conclude that: (1) these results further prove the isoprene's putative thermo-protective role of membranes; (2) HT may likely outweigh the inhibitory effects of elevated [CO(2)] on IE in the future. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9429,2009,3,4,C balance| carbon dioxide emissions and global warming potentials in LCA-modelling of waste management systems,Global warming potential (GWP) is an important impact category in life-cycle-assessment modelling of waste management systems. However| accounting of biogenic CO(2) emissions and sequestered biogenic carbon in landfills and in soils| amended with compost| is carried out in different ways in reported studies. A simplified model of carbon flows is presented for the waste management system and the surrounding industries| represented by the pulp and paper manufacturing industry| the forestry industry and the energy industry. The model calculated the load of C to the atmosphere| under ideal conditions| for 14 different waste management scenarios under a range of system boundary conditions and a constant consumption of C-product (here assumed to be paper) and energy production within the combined system. Five sets of criteria for assigning GWP indices to waste management systems were applied to the same 14 scenarios and tested for their ability to rank the waste management alternatives reflecting the resulting CO2 load to the atmosphere. Two complete criteria sets were identified yielding fully consistent results; one set considers biogenic CO2 as neutral| the other one did not. The results showed that criteria for assigning global warming contributions are partly linked to the system boundary conditions. While the boundary to the paper industry and the energy industry usually is specified in LCA studies| the boundary to the forestry industry and the interaction between forestry and the energy industry should also be specified and accounted for. 9319,2009,4,4,C(3) and C(4) photosynthesis models: An overview from the perspective of crop modelling,Nearly three decades ago Farquhai. von Caemmerer and Berry published a biochemical model for C(3) photosynthetic rates (the FvCB model) The model predicts net photosynthesis (A) as the minimum of the Rubisco-limited rate of CO(2) assimilation (A(c)) and the electron transport-limited rate of CO(2) assimilation (A(J)) Given us simplicity and the growing availability of the required enzyme kinetic constants| the FvCB model has been used for a wide range of studies| from analysing underlying C(3) leaf biochemistry to predicting photosynthetic fluxes of ecosystems in response to global warming However| surprisingly| this model has seen limited use ill existing crop growth models. Here we highlight the elegance| simplicity| and robustness of this model In the light of some uncertainties with photosynthetic electron transport pathways| a recently extended FvCB model to calculate A(J) is summarized Applying the FvCB-type model in crop growth models for predicting leaf photosynthesis requires a stomatal conductance (g(s)) model to be incorporated| so that inter cellular CO(2) concentration (C(1)) can be estimated In recent years great emphasis has been put on the significant drawdown of Rubisco carboxylation-sue CO(2) concentration (C(c)) relative to C(1) To account for this drawdown| mesophyll conductance (g(m)) for CO(2) transfer can be added We present an analytical algorithm that incorporates a g(s) model and uses g(m) as a temperature-dependent parameter for calculating A under vat ions environmental scenarios. Finally we discuss a C(4)-equivalent version of the FvCB model In addition to the algorithms already elaborated for C(3) photosynthesis| most important algorithms for C(4) photosynthesis are those that capture the CO(2) concentrating mechanism and the extra ATP requirement by the C(4) cycle Although the cui rent estimation of the C(4) enzyme kinetic constants is less certain| applying FvCB-type models to both C(3) and C(4) crops is recommended to accurately predict the response of crop photosynthesis to multiple| interactive environmental variables (C) Published by Elsevier B V on behalf of Royal Netherlands Society for Agricultural Sciences 779,2009,5,4,C4 expansion in the central Inner Mongolia during the latest Miocene and early Pliocene,The emergence of C4 photosynthesis in plants as a significant component of terrestrial ecosystems is thought to be an adaptive response to changes in atmospheric CO(2) concentration and/or climate during Neogene times and has had a profound effect on the global terrestrial biosphere. Although expansion of C4 grasses in the latest Miocene and Pliocene has been widely documented around the world| the spatial and temporal variations in the C4 expansion are still not well understood and its driving mechanisms remain a contentious issue. Here we present the results of carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of fossil and modern mammalian tooth enamel samples from the central Inner Mongolia. Our samples represent a diverse group of herbivorous mammals including deer| elephants| rhinos| horses and giraffes| ranging in age from the late Oligocene to modern. The delta(13)C values of 91 tooth enamel samples of early late-Miocene age or older| with the exception of two 13 Ma rhino samples (-7.8 and -7.6 parts per thousand) and one 8.5 Ma suspected rhino sample (-7.6 parts per thousand)| were all less than -8.0 parts per thousand (VPDB)| indicating that there were no C4 grasses present in their diets and thus probably few or no C4 grasses in the ecosystems of the central Inner Mongolia prior to similar to 8 Ma. However| 12 out of 26 tooth enamel samples of younger ages (similar to 7.5 Ma to similar to 3.9 Ma) have delta(13)C values higher than -8.0 parts per thousand (up to - 2.4 parts per thousand)| indicating that herbivores in the area had variable diets ranging from pure C3 to mixed C3-C4 vegetation during that time interval. The presence of C4 grasses in herbivores' diets (up to similar to 76% C4) suggests that C4 grasses were a significant component of the local ecosystems in the latest Miocene and early Pliocene| consistent with the hypothesis of a global factor as the driving mechanism of the late Miocene C4 expansion. Today| C3 grasses dominate grasslands in the central Inner Mongolia area. The retreat of C4 grasses from this area after the early Pliocene may have been driven by regional climate change associated with tectonic processes in central Asia as well as global climate change. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9425,2009,3,4,Cambodia's forests and climate change: Mitigating drivers of deforestation,The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is exploring a mechanism to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) to address global warming. This represents a major expansion of earlier forest-oriented initiatives under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) that focused on afforestation and reforestation activities. While the scope of REDD projects is still being defined| potential categories include conservation| stock enhancement| and sustainable management| creating a range of new opportunities for forest-related climate projects. The core concept behind REDD is that deforestation trends can be slowed| halted| or even reversed conserving billions of tons of carbon that would otherwise be emitted. To succeed| REDD projects will need to control powerful drivers of deforestation and forest degradation operating at multiple levels and carried-out by a variety of actors| from rural people to political and economic elites. This case study of a REDD pilot project in northwest Cambodia explores how drivers might be contained under a project scenario and how the future international articulation of project design parameters could enable or constrain a global REDD strategy. The paper concludes that to be successful REDD projects will require a hybrid approach in which local drivers are controlled by communities and national drivers are mitigated through policy actions necessitating strong partnerships between diverse institutions. 9922,2009,3,3,Can Brazil replace 5% of the 2025 gasoline world demand with ethanol?,Increasing use of petroleum| coupled with concern for global warming| demands the development and institution of CO(2) reducing| non-fossil fuel-based alternative energy-generating strategies. Ethanol is a potential alternative| particularly when produced in a sustainable way as is envisioned for sugarcane in Brazil. We consider the expansion of sugarcane-derived ethanol to displace 5% of projected gasoline use worldwide in 2025. With existing technology| 21 million hectares of land will be required to produce the necessary ethanol. This is less than 7% of current Brazilian agricultural land and equivalent to current soybean land use. New production lands come from pasture made available through improving pasture management in the cattle industry. With the continued introduction of new cane varieties (annual yield increases of about 1.6%) and new ethanol production technologies| namely the hydrolysis of bagasse to sugars for ethanol production and sugarcane trash collection providing renewable process energy production| this could reduce these modest land requirements by 29-38%. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9973,2009,2,4,Can global warming make Indian monsoon weather less predictable?,Reliable medium range prediction of monsoon weather is crucial for disaster preparedness. Weather in tropics| controlled by fast growing convective instabilities is| however| intrinsically less predictable than that in extra-tropics. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme rain events in the tropics in the backdrop of global warming has a potential for further decreasing the potential predictability of the tropical weather. Using nonlinear dynamical techniques on gridded daily rainfall data over India for 104 years (1901 - 2004)| here we show that the deterministic predictability of monsoon weather over central India in the latest quarter of the period has indeed decreased significantly compared to that in the earlier three quarters. The decrease of initial error doubling time from approximately 3.0 days to 1.5 days is consistent with higher frequency of extreme events and increased potential instability of the atmosphere in the recent quarter. To overcome the increased difficulty in predicting monsoon weather| significant increase in efforts to improve models| observations and enhancement of computing power would be required. Citation: Mani| N. J.| E. Suhas| and B. N. Goswami (2009)| Can global warming make Indian monsoon weather less predictable?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L08811| doi: 10.1029/2009GL037989. 10279,2009,2,4,Can Landsat imagery detect tree line dynamics?,Prior research on tree line dynamics has primarily been based on field inventory data| and little is known about the potential for using remotely sensed imagery to detect change. The present study developed a new methodology by combining remote sensing and field survey data to examine dynamics of the pristine forest in the tree line area on Changbai Mountain in Northeast China over the past two decades. The new method normalized remote sensing data by using the adjacent old-growth coniferous forest (close to climax) below the tree line as the reference (assuming steady state) to eliminate various potential errors associated with different satellite sensors| atmospheric conditions and seasonal vegetation changes. Specifically| we used a ratio of normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) between the tree line forest (birch) and the referenced old-growth coniferous forest| as well as a ratio between the interface forest against the referenced coniferous forest| to investigate growth dynamics of the tree line forest from 1977 to 1999. The interface forest is distributed between the tree line forest and non-forest zone. Compared with traditional methods using remote sensing data| the new method has higher sensitivity to tree line dynamics. We found that the tree line delineated from satellite imagery had shown no shift in the past decades. However| the NDVI ratio of tree line forest against the reference forest increased from 0.9 to 1.2 from 1977 to 1999| and the ratio of interface forest against the reference forest increased from 0.83 to 0.98| indicating that growth of the tree line forest apparently exceeded that of the reference coniferous forest and had grown denser. Field surveys also supported the conclusion from remote sensing results that the tree line forest on Changbai Mountain has grown denser in the past decades. From 1980 to 2002| basal area of the tree line forest increased 35% (from 18.8 to 25.3m2ha-1); at the same time the NDVI ratio increased about 33%. This study suggests that it is possible to monitor growth of the tree line forest based on multi-temporal remote sensing images. We speculate that global warming may have contributed to the observed rapid growth of the tree line forest because temperature is a major limiting factor among climatic variables in the tree line forest and effect from other factors| such as fire| harvesting and snow and wind damage| were not evident in this protected area in the past decades. 926,2009,2,4,Canadian Inuit subsistence and ecological instability- if the climate changes| must the Inuit?,Considerable attention has been devoted to the possible effects of global climate change on the environment of the circumpolar world. With regard to the Inuit| the aboriginal culture of Arctic Canada| research interest has focused principally on the vulnerability of the hunting and harvesting component of the traditional food system| otherwise frequently referred to as the subsistence system| if wild terrestrial and marine resources become less available. Although also concerned with the traditional Inuit food economy| this paper concentrates on the customary institutional mechanisms by which the Inuit distribute and share the products obtained from hunting. After analysing this social economy| a review of the data on recent climate-related range changes of a number of Arctic animal populations is carried out| in terms of how projected environmental changes may affect this other aspect of Inuit subsistence. After tentatively concluding that some species substitution and/or replacement will occur| the final aspect of the paper considers the potential for the possible exclusion of these "replacements" as a result of the political aspect of climate change. 852,2009,3,4,Canary Islands Institute of Technology (ITC) experiences in desalination with renewable energies (1996-2008),Fresh water shortage is a raising problem| especially in some parts of the world as North Africa and Middle East areas. Global climate change and progressive increment of population are reducing day by day the availability of per capita drinking water supply; this is becoming a critical question for certain developing countries. Desalination has narrowed the gap of water demand for more than 20 years thanks to a cheap energy supply; but the age of "easy oil" is coming over and the link water-energy is more and more critical. A hopeful option is desalination powered by renewable energies (RE). RE are not only safe but also endless resources| and there are already successful experiences in RE desalination. The Canary Islands Institute of Technology (ITC) has been testing and monitoring RE desalination systems for more than 10 years. Vapour compression| reverse osmosis| electrodialysis| membrane distillation and humidification-dehumidification plants have been connected to wind or solar energy systems in more than ten field projects. This paper summarizes the main outcomes of this long experience| focusing on the more practical questions to be considered in order to implement new RE desalination projects. 10323,2009,2,4,Canine leishmaniosis and its importance in Europe. Literature review,Leishmaniosis| a tropical sandfly-borne disease has been endemic in southern Europe for decades. Canine leishmaniosis caused by Leishmania infantum is a widely spread zoonosis in the Mediterranean region of the continent| where it is a chronic systemic disease of the local dogs. The dogs| which are the main reservoirs of the parasite species play a key role in transmission to humans causing visceral leishmaniosis. Human susceptibility to L. infantum is low but it causes life-threatening disease. Novel autochthonous foci of canine infections have been found in some European countries which were formerly free from the parasite. Environmental and human behavioural factors influenced by climatic alterations associated with global warming are thought to contribute to the northward spread of L. infantum. Leishmaniosis could be also an emerging parasitic disease in Hungarian dogs. Therefore private veterinarians should have appropriate knowledge of it because the control of human infections relies on effective control of canine leishmaniosis. This review presents an updated knowledge about the parasite| and the epidemiology| pathogenesis| clinical signs| diagnosis| treatment and prevention of canine leishmaniosis. This publication was partially funded by EU grant GOCE-2003-010284 EDEN and is catalogued by the EDEN Steering Committee as EDEN 0121. 10111,2009,3,3,Carbon balance of anaerobic granulation process: Carbon credit,The concept of carbon credit arose out of increasing awareness of the need to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to combat global warming which was formalized in the Kyoto protocol. In addition to contribution to sustainable development with energy recovery in the form of methane| carbon credits can be claimed by application of advanced anaerobic processes in wastewater treatment for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. As anaerobic granular systems are capable of handling high organic loadings concomitant with high strength wastewater and short hydraulic retention time| they could render much more carbon credits than other conventional anaerobic systems. This study investigated the potential carbon credit derived from laboratory-scale upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactors based on a carbon balance analysis. Methane emission reduction could be calculated by calculating the difference of UASB reactors and open lagoon treatment systems. Based on the 2.5 l bench-scale reactor| the total CH(4) emissions reduction was calculated as 29 kg CO(2)/year. On scaling up to a typical full-scale anaerobic digester| the total CH(4) emissions reduction could achieve 46|420 tons CO(2) reduction/year. The estimated carbon credits would amount to 278|500 US$ per year by assuming a carbon price of 6 US$ per metric ton CO(2) reduction. The analysis postulated that it is financially viable to invest in advanced anaerobic granular treatment system from the revenue generated from carbon credits. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9709,2009,3,3,Carbon benefits from Amazonian forest reserves: leakage accounting and the value of time,Amazonian forest reserves have significant carbon benefits| but the methodology used for accounting for these benefits will be critical in determining whether the powerful economic force represented by mitigation efforts to slow global warming will be applied to creating these reserves. Opportunities for reserve creation are quickly being lost as new areas are opened to deforestation though highway construction and other developments. Leakage| or the effects that a reserve or other mitigation project provokes outside of the project boundaries| is critical to a proper accounting of net carbon benefits. Protected areas in the Amazon have particularly great potential mitigation benefits over an extended time horizon. Over a 100-year time frame| virtually no unprotected forest is likely to remain| meaning that potential leakages (both leakage to the vicinity of the reserves and that displaced by removing protected areas from the land-grabbing market) should not matter much because any short-term leakage would be "recovered" eventually. The effect of the value attributed to time greatly influences the impact of leakage on benefits credited to reserves. Simple assumptions regarding leakage scenarios illustrate the benefits of reserves and the critical areas where agreement is necessary to make this option a practical component of mitigation efforts. The stakes are too high to allow further delays in reaching agreement on these issues. 9986,2009,3,4,Carbon bio-fixation by photosynthesis of Thermosynechococcus sp CL-1 and Nannochloropsis oculta,There is a great potential to assimilate CO(2) and produce bio-energy from cellular component by utilizing carbon fixation of photosynthetic microorganisms. Two different types of photosynthetic microorganisms were used in the present study. The strain Thermosynechococcus sp. CL-1 (TCL-1) was previously isolated from a hot spring while Nannochloropsis sp. Oculta (NAO) from sea water. Two types of inorganic carbon were used (gaseous CO(2) and dissolved inorganic carbon| DIC) with nitrate as N source under different temperature conditions. The Monod model was used to relate its growth rate and DIC concentration. Additionally| lipid and carbohydrate of cell component| which can be used as bio-energy precursors| as function of CO(2) and DIC concentrations is quantified. The growth rate of TCL-1 decreased as CO(2) concentrations increased from 10% to 40% due to low pH inhibition with the maximum value 2.7 d(-1) at 10% CO(2). As for NAO| the maximum growth rate of about 1.6 d(-1) was obtained at 5% and 8% CO(2) (pH between 5.5 and 7 at 30 degrees C). Regarding the cultivation of TCL-1 under various DIC concentrations| the maximum growth rate of TCL-1 was 3.5 d(-1) at the initial DIC 94.3 mM| pH 9.5 and 50 degrees C. The carbohydrate content of TCL-1 increased from 2.1% to 33% as DIC concentration increased from 4.7 to 94.3 mM. However| the 33% carbohydrate content at 94.3 mM DIC was much less than 61% at 10% CO(2). That may be due to the fact that the cultivation at 94.3 mM DIC can not supply adequate amounts of DIC to produce carbohydrate under N-limiting conditions. Conversely| enough amounts of DIC supplied from washing flue gas for cultivating TCL-1 would provide a higher performance of carbon bio-fixation and carbohydrate production. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9470,2009,3,4,Carbon cost of pragmatic randomised controlled trials: retrospective analysis of sample of trials,Objective To calculate the global warming potential| in carbon dioxide (CO(2)) equivalent emissions| from a sample of pragmatic randomised controlled trials. Design Retrospective analysis. Data source Internal data held by NIHR Evaluation| Trials and Studies Coordinating Centre. Studies included All eligible pragmatic randomised controlled trials funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme during 2002 and 2003. Main outcome measure CO(2) equivalents for trial activities calculated with standard conversion factors. Results 12 pragmatic randomised controlled trials involving more than 4800 participants and a wide range of technologies were included. The average CO(2) emission generated by the trials was 78.4 (range 42.1-112.7) tonnes. This is equivalent to that produced in one year by approximately nine people in the United Kingdom. Commuting to work by the trial team generated the most emissions (average 21 (11.5-35.0) tonnes per trial)| followed by study centres' fuel use (18(9.3-32.2) tonnes per trial)| trial team related travel (15(2.0-29.0) tonnes per trial)| and participant related travel (13(0-46.7) tonnes per trial). Conclusions CO(2) emissions from pragmatic randomised controlled trials are generated in areas where steps could be taken to reduce them. A large proportion of the CO(2) emissions come from travel related to various aspects of a trial. The results of this research are likely to underestimate the total CO(2) emissions associated with the trials studied| because of the sources of information available. Further research is needed to explore the additional CO(2) emissions generated by clinical trials| over and above those generated by routine care. The results from this project will feed into NIHR guidelines that will advise researchers on how to reduce CO(2) emissions. 9890,2009,2,4,Carbon dioxide and high temperature effects on growth of young orange trees in a humid| subtropical environment,Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and global warming could impact growth of citrus trees. Five 2-year-old Ambersweet orange trees on Swingle citrumelo| rootstocks were transplanted into soil containers in two temperature-gradient greenhouses on 9 August 1994 at Gainesville| FL| USA. Either 360 or 720 mu mol (CO(2)) mol(-1) (air) was maintained in the greenhouses. Two containers were located in each of four temperature zones maintained at 1.5 degrees C increments between each zone with a 4.5 degrees C difference between zones 1 and 4. The main objective was to test the hypothesis that biomass growth ratios of CO(2)-enriched to ambient CO(2)-exposed young sweet orange trees would be similar to the large growth enhancements (about 2.6-fold) reported from Phoenix| AZ| USA during the first 3 years of growth of sour orange trees. One tree per container was harvested in 1995 and four trees per container were harvested in 1996. Growth parameters were different between years except leaf fresh weight and fine root biomass. Elevated CO(2) increased growth parameters except leaf growth and fine root biomass. Biomass response ratios to CO(2) (720/360) for 1995 and 1996| respectively| were 1.57 and 1.18 for shoot wood| 1.34 and 1.15 for total above-ground| 1.46 and 1.08 for tap roots| 1.67 and 1.54 for secondary roots| 1.29 and 0.95 for fine roots (NS-CO(2))| 1.40 and 1.19 for total roots| 1.47 and 1.18 for total wood| and 1.37 and 1.17 for total plants. The decrease in response to CO(2) in the second year was attributed to crowding of shoot and root space. Components of shoot wood| total above ground| taproot| fine root| total root| total wood| and total plant biomass increased slightly (0.01 < P < 0.05) with increasing temperature. No CO(2) X temperature interactions were significant. The hypothesis that elevated CO(2) would cause biomass increases of about 2.6-fold compared to ambient CO(2) treatments (as found in the midlattitude desert environment of Phoenix) was not supported. May through September mean maximum daily vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was 5.54 and 2.25 kPa for Phoenix and Gainesville| respectively| a ratio of approximate to 2.5. High summertime VPD coupled with limited water flow capacity within citrus trees that lead to pronounced midday depressions in photosynthesis in ambient CO(2) is discussed as the underlying environmental cause of the large CO(2) enrichment effects in a midlattitude desert compared to the Gainesville humid subtropical climate. Published by Elsevier B.V. 10333,2009,3,2,Carbon dioxide capture at the molecular level,Carbon dioxide is recognized as a typical greenhouse gas and drastic reduction of CO(2) emissions from industrial process is becoming more and more important in relation to global warming. In fact| the reaction between monoethanolamine (MEA) and CO(2) in aqueous solution has been widely used for the removal from flue gases. In this study| the role of the interplay between solvent water and nitrogen (MEA)-carbon (CO(2)) bond formation is discussed based on the molecular theory using RISM-SCF-SEDD| which is the hybrid method of quantum chemistry of solute and statistical mechanics of solvent. 12677,2009,3,3,Carbon dioxide emission reduction from combined cycle with partial oxidation of natural gas,There is widespread and growing international concern about global climate change resulting from greenhouse effect. CO(2) removal from natural gas gives one of the solutions to reduce emissions from the gas-based power plants. Partial oxidation of natural gas with the presence of steam and restricted air produces carbon monoxide and hydrogen. This carbon monoxide can be converted into carbon dioxide and hydrogen| in the presence of steam in a shift reactor. Carbon dioxide is absorbed before gas turbine combustion from the products of the shift reactor. The resulting fuel for combustion mainly consists of hydrogen and nitrogen| thus combustion (e. g. in a gas turbine) exhaust is virtually devoid of CO(2). The paper discusses the selection of some important parameters necessary to obtain a maximum level of conversion of hydrogen from natural gas in the partial oxidation reactor. The parameters which influence the hydrogen production are air-to-methane ratio| steam-to-methane ratio and reactor pressure. The results showed that a net efficiency of 43%| with a 95.5% of fuel conversion can be obtained by combined cycle with dual pressure heat recovery steam generator based on present technological status. (C) 2009 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 9654,2009,3,3,Carbon Dioxide Postcombustion Capture: A Novel Screening Study of the Carbon Dioxide Absorption Performance of 76 Amines,The significant and rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is recognized as necessary to mitigate the potential climate effects from global warming. The postcombustion capture (PCC) and storage of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) produced from the use Of fossil fuels for electricity generation is a key technology needed to achieve these reductions| The most mature technology for CO(2) Capture is reversible chemical absorption into an aqueous amine solution. In this study the results from measurements of the CO(2) absorption capacity of aqueous amine solutions for 76 different amines are presented. Measurements were made using both a novel isothermal gravimetric analysis (IGA) method and a traditional absorption apparatus. Seven at-nines| consisting of one primary| three secondary| and three tertiary amines| were identified as exhibiting outstanding absorption capacities. Most have a number of structural features in common including steric hindrance and hydroxyl functionality 2 or 3 carbons from the nitrogen. Initial CO(2) absorption rate data from the IGA measurements was also used to indicate relative absorption rates. Most of the outstanding performers in terms of capacity also showed initial absorption rates comparable to the industry standard monoethanolamine (MEA). This indicates| in terms of both absorption capacity and kinetics| that they are promising candidates for further investigation. 10021,2009,2,4,Carbon losses due to soil warming: Do autotrophic and heterotrophic soil respiration respond equally?,Global warming has the potential to increase soil respiration (R(S))| one of the major fluxes in the global carbon (C) cycle. R(S) consists of an autotrophic (R(A)) and a heterotrophic (R(H)) component. We combined a soil warming experiment with a trenching experiment to assess how R(S)| R(A)| and R(H) are affected. The experiment was conducted in a mature forest dominated by Norway spruce. The site is located in the Austrian Alps on dolomitic bedrock. We warmed the soil of undisturbed and trenched plots by means of heating cables 4 degrees C above ambient during the snow-free seasons of 2005 and 2006. Soil warming increased the CO(2) efflux from control plots (R(S)) by similar to 45% during 2005 and similar to 47% during 2006. The CO(2) efflux from trenched plots (R(H)) increased by similar to 39% during 2005 and similar to 45% during 2006. Similar responses of R(S) and R(H) indicated that the autotrophic and heterotrophic components of R(S) responded equally to the temperature increase. Thirty-five to forty percent or 1 t C ha(-1) yr(-1) of the overall annual increase in R(S) (2.8 t C ha(-1) yr(-1)) was autotrophic. The remaining| heterotrophic part of soil respiration (1.8 t C ha(-1) yr(-1))| represented the warming-induced C loss from the soil. The autotrophic component showed a distinct seasonal pattern. Contribution of R(A) to R(S) was highest during summer. Seasonally derived Q(10) values reflected this pattern and were correspondingly high (5.3-9.3). The autotrophic CO(2) efflux increase due to the 4 degrees C warming implied a Q(10) of 2.9. Hence| seasonally derived Q(10) of R(A) did not solely reflect the seasonal soil temperature development. 9485,2009,3,2,Carbon sequestration with special reference to agroforestry in cold deserts of Ladakh,Global warming risks from emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by anthropogenic activities have increased the need for the identification of ecosystems with high carbon sink capacity as an alternative mitigation strategy of terrestrial carbon sequestration. The agroforestry sector has received recent attention for its enormous potential carbon pools that reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere. The Nubra Valley (Trans-Himalayan region) is covered with more than 575|000 agroforestry plantations (willow and poplar). These species have been found to sequester more than 75|000 tonnes of carbon. Every year these plantations are contributing 400 tonnes of leaf litter to the ground| which is one of the best sources of soil organic carbon. This communication attempts to suggest some appropriate management practices to improve soil organic carbon pools by analysing available information of agroforestry plants in the Nubra Valley by quantification of biomass contribution by willow and poplar species within the valley and CO(2) sequestration rates by the living biomass. 10247,2009,3,3,Carbon Stocks in Different Soil Types under Diverse Rainfed Production Systems in Tropical India,Soil carbon (C) pool plays a crucial role in the soil's quality| availability of plant nutrients| environmental functions| and global C cycle. Drylands generally have poor fertility and little organic matter and hence are candidates for C sequestration. Carbon storage in the soil profile not only improves fertility but also abates global warming. Several soils| production| and management factors influence C sequestration| and it is important to identify production and management factors that enhance C sequestrations in dryland soils. The objective of the present study was to examine C stocks at 21 sites under ongoing rainfed production systems and management regimes over the last 25 years on dominant soil types| covering a range of climatic conditions in India. Organic C stocks in the soil profiles across the country showed wide variations and followed the order Vertisols Inceptisols Alfisols Aridisols. Inorganic C and total C stocks were larger in Vertisols than in other soil types. Soil organic C stocks decreased with depth in the profile| whereas inorganic C stocks increased with depth. Among the production systems| soybean-| maize-| and groundnut-based systems showed greater organic C stocks than other production systems. However| the greatest contribution of organic C to total C stock was under upland rice system. Organic C stocks in the surface layer of the soils increased with rainfall (r = 0.59*)| whereas inorganic C stocks in soils were found in the regions with less than 550mm annual rainfall. Cation exchange capacity had better correlation with organic C stocks than clay content in soils. Results suggest that Indian dryland soils are low in organic C but have potential to sequester. Further potential of tropical soils to sequester more C in soil could be harnessed by identifying appropriate production systems and management practices for sustainable development and improved livelihoods in the tropics. 9556,2009,3,3,Carbon taxes and greenhouse emissions,Most countries of the world have signed the Kyoto Protocol which aims to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and so reduce global warming. This paper considers future emission trends and examines the potential effectiveness of carbon taxes in controlling emissions. It also discusses the conflict between economic growth in the less wealthy nations and the global emissions of carbon dioxide. It concludes with some suggestions as to how this conflict might be at least partially resolved.
9729,2009,4,4,Carbonic anhydrase inhibitors. Inhibition studies of a coral secretory isoform by sulfonamides,The inhibition of a newly cloned coral carbonic anhydrase (CA| EC 4.2.1.1) has been investigated with a series of sulfonamides| including some clinically used derivatives (acetazolamide| methazolamide| ethoxzolamide| dichlorophenamide| dorzolamide| brinzolamide| benzolamide| and sulpiride| or indisulam| a compound in clinical development as antitumor drug)| as well as the sulfamate antiepileptic topiramate. Some simple amino-/hydrazine-/hydroxy-substituted aromatic/heterocyclic sulfonamides have also been included in the study. All types of activity have been detected| with low potency inhibitors (K(I)s in the range of 163-770 nM)| or with medium potency inhibitors (K(I)s in the range of 75.1-105 nM)| whereas ethoxzolamide| several clinically used sulfonamides and heterocyclic compounds showed stronger potency| with KIs in the range of 16-48.2 nM. These inhibitors may be useful to better understand the physiological role of the Stylophora pistillata CA (STPCA) in corals and its involvement in biomineralisation in this era of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9384,2009,3,3,Catalytic conversion of NaHCO(3) into formic acid in mild hydrothermal conditions for CO(2) utilization,The increasing atmospheric CO(2) level causes global warming and may pose catastrophic effects to the humanity. Among the various options to reduce the CO(2) atmospheric loading| hydrothermal reactions may have a high potential for rapidly and effectively converting CO(2) into useful chemicals. In this study| the hydrothermal conversion of CO(2) into formic acid was carried out by using Fe as a reductant and Ni as a catalyst. The effect of various experimental parameters| e.g.| amount of Fe (Ni)| Fe/Ni ratio| temperature| reaction time| alkalinity etc. was investigated. Results showed that Ni played a catalytic role in the hydrothermal conversion of CO(2) into formic acid. The highest yield of formic acid of 15.6% was achieved under optimal conditions| i.e.| Fe/Ni ratio of 1:1| temperature of 300 degrees C| reaction time of 120 min| filling rate of 35% and NaHCO(3): Fe of 1:6. Additionally| the selectivity of formic acid was more than 98%. It was also found that the hydrothermal conversion could not occur without either the addition of catalyst or the existence of CO(2) when Fe was used as a reductant. The role of CO(2) in the hydrogen production was discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9896,2009,3,3,Catalytic pyrolysis of exhausted olive oil waste,The interest on energy recovery from renewable sources is increasing due to the global warming and fossil fuels limitation. Biomass thermochemical conversion methods present some significant advantages such as zero net emissions and the use of agricultural by-products. in this work| a study of the catalytic and non-catalytic pyrolysis of an exhausted olive waste was carried out. The objective was to characterize the solid| liquid and gaseous phases in terms of their energy content. Two experimental series were conducted: uncatalyzed processes| studying the influence of temperature in the range 400-900 degrees C; and catalyzed ones| investigating the influence of temperature (500-800 degrees C) and quantity of catalyst (0-100 g). Also| the dolomite effectiveness as catalyst was evaluated. For this motive| consecutive experiments| without reactivating dolomite| were carried out (0-6 runs)| and the yields of solids| liquids and gases were determined. It was found that increasing temperature leads in both series to a decrease in the solid and liquid yields and to an increase in the gas yield. The presence and amount of catalyst caused a significant decrease in the liquid phase yield and a high increase in the gas phase yield giving rise to a vast rise in hydrogen production. On the other hand| the catalyst proved to be stable and did not lose activity during at least six pyrolysis cycles. Finally| as a previous step to the design of industrial installations| a kinetic study of the process was performed| based on the generation of the principal gases| considering that these are formed through parallel independent first-order reactions| with different activation energy. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 830,2009,3,3,Catching CO(2) in a Bowl,Increased concentrations Of CO(2) in the atmosphere contribute to global climate change. Improved methods are needed for removing CO(2) from the flue gas of power plants and/or directly from the atmosphere. A macrocyclic amiclourea recently synthesized by Brooks et al.| when dissolved in DMSO along with tetrabutyl ammonium fluoride| removes CO(2) from the atmosphere to form a complex in which a CO(3) group is held by a number of O-H-N bonds within the bowl-shaped cavity of the macrocycle. We have calculated the structure| stability| and vibrational spectra of this complex| using density functional techniques and polarized double-zeta basis sets. Both basis set superposition errors and polarizable continuum effects on the complex geometry and stability have been evaluated. The calculated structure is in good agreement with experiment. We predict that this CO(3)(-2) complex (and its HCO(3-) analogue) have larger formation constants by several orders of magnitude than the analogue complex of the amiclourea macrocycle with Cl(-) (particularly in DMSO solution compared to aqueous solution). Our calculations also indicate that the CO(3)(-2) and HCO(3)(-) complexes can be distinguished by (13)C NMR. The CO(3)(-2) complex also has a distinctive H-N stretch| perturbed by the H-bonding to the CO(3) group. We also calculate the CO(3)(-2) complex to absorb within the visible region| unlike the free macrocycle or typical metal carbonates. Macrocycles of this type may provide a useful route to the absorption of atmospheric CO(2). Our calculations also indicate that changing the solvent from DMSO to water and/or heating the complex will be an efficient way to decompose it to release CO(2). 10076,2009,2,4,cDNA microarray analysis reveals the capacity of the cold-adapted Antarctic fish Trematomus bernacchii to alter gene expression in response to heat stress,During their many millions of years of evolution in the extreme and stable cold| Antarctic notothenioid fishes have acquired profoundly cold-adapted physiologies. Gene expression profiling via cDNA microarray was used to determine the extent to which one species of notothenioid| Trematomus bernacchii| has retained the ability to alter gene expression in response to heat stress. While an inability to up-regulate the expression of any size class of heat shock proteins (except for a 1.1-fold induction of the co-chaperone Hsp40) was observed| hundreds of additional genes| associated with a broad range of cellular processes| were responsive to heat. Many of these genes are associated with central aspects of the evolutionarily conserved cellular stress response (CSR)| which plays a pivotal role in responding to physical and chemical stresses. The inability of T. bernacchii to mount a heat shock response underscores the potential susceptibility of this species to the effects of global warming. 9941,2009,2,2,Centennial Variations of the Global Monsoon Precipitation in the Last Millennium: Results from ECHO-G Model,The authors investigate how the global monsoon (GM) precipitation responds to the external and anthropogenic forcing in the last millennium by analyzing a pair of control and forced millennium simulations with the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The forced run| which includes the solar| volcanic| and greenhouse gas forcing| captures the major modes of precipitation climatology comparably well when contrasted with those captured by the NCEP reanalysis. The strength of the modeled GM precipitation in the forced run exhibits a significant quasi-bicentennial oscillation. Over the past 1000 yr| the simulated GM precipitation was weak during the Little Ice Age (1450-1850) with the three weakest periods occurring around 1460| 1685| and 1800| which fell in| respectively| the Sporer Minimum| Maunder Minimum| and Dalton Minimum periods of solar activity. Conversely| strong GM was simulated during the model Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1030-1240). Before the industrial period| the natural variations in the total amount of effective solar radiative forcing reinforce the thermal contrasts both between the ocean and continent and between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres resulting in the millennium-scale variation and the quasi-bicentennial oscillation in the GM index. The prominent upward trend in the GM precipitation occurring in the last century and the notable strengthening of the global monsoon in the last 30 yr (1961-90) appear unprecedented and are due possibly in part to the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration| though the authors' simulations of the effects from recent warming may be overestimated without considering the negative feedbacks from aerosols. The simulated change of GM in the last 30 yr has a spatial pattern that differs from that during the Medieval Warm Period| suggesting that global warming that arises from the increases of greenhouse gases and the input solar forcing may have different effects on the characteristics of GM precipitation. It is further noted that GM strength has good relational coherence with the temperature difference between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres| and that on centennial time scales the GM strength responds more directly to the effective solar forcing than the concurrent forced response in global-mean surface temperature. 889,2009,2,4,Centrifuge modelling of climatic effects on clay embankments,This paper presents an experimental methodology using a geotechnical centrifuge and an environmental chamber to explore long-term embankment performance in light of the more severe conditions expected due to global climate change. The environmental chamber applies water and air input to control inundation and evaporation conditions at the soil surface. Example results show that a well-compacted intermediate-plasticity model embankment performs well when subjected to 19 years of alternating wet and dry periods. Finally| the paper reports an experimental methodology that will allow further model tests to be conducted to examine how different climate scenarios| soil types and compaction levels may affect long-term embankment response. 995,2009,2,4,Cereal yield trends in northern European conditions: Changes in yield potential and its realisation,In recent decades there has been steady reduction in the rate of increase in cereal yields worldwide. This paper aims to (1) characterise the changes in yield trends of spring (barley| oat and wheat) and winter cereals (rye and wheat) grown in Finland and (2) distinguish between plant breeding achievements and other potential contributors to changes in national yield trends and differences among crops. In this work we used long-term datasets from FAO (FAOSTAT| 2007) (1960-2005) and results from multi-location MTT Official Variety Trials (1970-2005). A mixed model technique was used to divide the yield trends in variety trials into two components: genetic improvements and environmental changes. All trends were characterised using 5 years moving averages. The study period was divided into three agronomically relevant sub-periods: (1) in 1960-1980 agriculture was mechanised and improved basic agricultural practices largely introduced| (2) in 1981-1994 intensified crop management practices were increasingly applied and (3) in 1995-2005 Finland had joined the European Union| which resulted in altered agricultural policies and markets. Plant breeding has successfully increased genetic yield potential of all cereal crops without any indication of reduced rates of improvement. Since 1995 the Finnish national yield trends declined for all crops except wheat| for which the trend levelled-off. The main reasons for this are: cereal production has become less intensive because of (1) application of an environmental programme aimed at increasing the sustainability of agriculture by reducing the environmental load it represents and (2) markedly decreased economic incentives to produce intensively as producer prices for cereals decreased and input prices remained unchanged. National yield trends did not decline because of lack of genetic improvement in yield potential. It is likely that future cereals yield trends will again respond to increasing demand for food| feed| biofuel production and global climate change. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10229,2009,2,4,CHANGE OF TIMING OF AUTUMN MIGRATION IN ACROCEPHALUS AND LOCUSTELLA GENUS,Our research was done on trans-Sahara migrant Acrocephalus and Locustella species caught in Ocsa (Hunggary) with standardized conditions between 1987-2004. We have constructed the cumulative diagram of the migration for adults and juveniles for every year and we have established the dates of the 50 and 90% percentiles. We have represented these data in the function of years and the average temperatures of August. On these distributions we have made linear regressions and studied their parameters. The very close related species react to the climate change in different degrees and direction. Although the study period is short| we have found some significant changes in the timing of migration and correlations with the temperature. The early migrating species have advanced their autumn migration and the later-migrating species have delayed it. The migration strategies of the species are very complex| so it is hard to give a uniform explanation for the changes. 9972,2009,2,2,Changes in biogenic carbon flow in response to sea surface warming,The pelagic ocean harbors one of the largest ecosystems on Earth. It is responsible for approximately half of global primary production| sustains worldwide fisheries| and plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. Ocean warming caused by anthropogenic climate change is already starting to impact the marine biota| with possible consequences for ocean productivity and ecosystem services. Because temperature sensitivities of marine autotrophic and heterotrophic processes differ greatly| ocean warming is expected to cause major shifts in the flow of carbon and energy through the pelagic system. Attempts to integrate such biological responses into marine ecosystem and biogeochemical models suffer from a lack of empirical data. Here| we show| using an indoor-mesocosm approach| that rising temperature accelerates respiratory consumption of organic carbon relative to autotrophic production in a natural plankton community. Increasing temperature by 2-6 degrees C hence decreased the biological drawdown of dissolved inorganic carbon in the surface layer by up to 31%. Moreover| warming shifted the partitioning between particulate and dissolved organic carbon toward an enhanced accumulation of dissolved compounds. In line with these findings| the loss of organic carbon through sinking was significantly reduced at elevated temperatures. The observed changes in biogenic carbon flow have the potential to reduce the transfer of primary produced organic matter to higher trophic levels| weaken the ocean's biological carbon pump| and hence provide a positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO(2). 9493,2009,3,3,Changes in carbon storage and oxygen production in forest timber biomass of Balci Forest Management Unit in Turkey between 1984 and 2006,Decrease in forest areas world wide and the damaging of its structures is hazardous to human health| hinders and dries up the spread of oxygen in the air and also destroys carbon storage. In recent years| global warming and changes in climates depending on the increase in the green house gases have been affecting the whole world. The solution seeking| initiated in the international arena with various treaties and processes| has shown itself around the world and in our country as the concept of planning and operation of the forest sources. During the recent ten years in Turkey| in forest management plans| the capacity of carbon storage and the amount of oxygen production by the forest were initiated to be calculated in the planning unit scale. The first forest management plans were prepared and put into force in 1972 in Turkey| where the planned forestry began in 1963. During the period of more than 30 years| neither the structural changes in forests nor their values regarding other functions have been examined enough. In this article| using Balci Forest Management Units in Borcka Township of Artvin| forests are studied regarding their growing stocks| timber increments| their capacities of carbon storage and oxygen production. The basic management unit scale in the study is standard and the evident standard parameters are tree species| mixture and age class. Balci Management Unit underwent attacks from bark beetles in the past. After the mechanical struggle| there have been structural changes in forest ecosystem and the potentials of forests have varied both in quality and quantity. Changes in forest ecosystems during that time| not only through natural ways but also through human activities| have been shaping the oncoming forestry practices. 9815,2009,4,3,Changes in Daily and Monthly Surface Air Temperature Variability by Multi-Model Global Warming Experiments,Future changes in daily and monthly Surface air temperature variability are associated with temperature extremes and thus will have a large impact on Our life and various sectors. In this study| we analyze variability of surface air temperature by 14 CMIP3 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model results. We first assess the 20th century climate in coupled models (20C3M) experiment for the period 1981-2000 with three reanalysis datasets and then show the changes in future climate for the period 2081-2100 under the SRES AIB scenario. The interannual variability of simulated monthly mean surface air temperature agrees with the observations based on three reanalysis datasets. Although there are large model-to-model scatters in the future changes of interannual variability| the ensemble mean of the available model results shows a large decrease in variability over the Northern Hemisphere high latitude region in winter| and an increase over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and over the tropical land region in summer. For the daily temperature variability| the model ensemble mean underestimates the reanalysis data| probably related with less developed synoptic disturbances in the models than in reality. In future| the daily temperature variability is projected to increase over land in the Northern Hemisphere summer and in the tropics| and to decrease over the ocean throughout the year| consistent with the projected weakening of cyclonic disturbances. Inter-model variability is smaller than in the case for the interannual variability of monthly mean temperature. 10057,2009,3,3,Changes in Forest Soil Carbon and Nitrogen after a Thirty-Year Interval,Increases in atmospheric C have resulted in concerns about global warming and interest in finding the means to sequester atmospheric C through land management strategies. The purposes of this study were to: (i) compare changes in mineral soil C after a 30-yr interval| and (ii) examine the potential roles of soil N| soil texture| and topography in these changes. The Camp Branch watershed is a second-growth| oak-dominated| mixed hardwood forest on the Cumberland plateau in central Tennessee. In July 1976| soil samples were collected at permanently identified points and archived. These points were resampled in July 2006 and both the archived and new samples of the 0- to 10-cm increment of the mineral soil were analyzed for C and N. Comparisons revealed that the changes in C and IN were distinct to each of the eight soil series Occurring on the site. Comparison of 2006 samples to 1976 samples indicated that changes in C concentration ranged from -13.1 to 12.0%. Changes in C mass ranged from -11.3 to 8.3%. Increases in C were most closely associated with increases in the C/total N ratio. The change in C was positively correlated with the change in exchangeable inorganic N (12 = 0.31| P < 0.0001). An overstory inventory indicated a decline in oak domination and site-specific changes in basal area| density| and stand age. Since regression analysis revealed that the change in C was not predicted by topographic factors or soil texture|c| we speculate that changes in forest cover influenced the changes in mineral soil C. 9850,2009,4,3,Changes in Interannual Variability and Decadal Potential Predictability under Global Warming,Global warming will result in changes in mean temperature and precipitation distributions and is also expected to affect interannual and longer time-scale internally generated variability as a consequence of changes in climate processes and feedbacks. Multimodel estimates of changes in the variability of annual mean temperature and precipitation and in the variability of decadal potential predictability are investigated based on the collection of coupled climate model simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) data archive. Pooled| multimodel standard deviations of annual mean temperature and precipitation for the unforced preindustrial control climates of the models show good resemblance to observation-based estimates. The internally generated variability of the unforced climate is compared with that of the warmer conditions for simulations with the B1 and A1B climate change scenarios with forcing stabilized at year 2100 values. The standard deviation of annual mean temperature generally decreases with global warming at extratropical latitudes| with the largest percentage decreases over the oceans and largest percentage increases in the tropics and subtropics| although the magnitudes of these increases are smaller. The standard deviation of annual mean precipitation increases almost everywhere| with larger increases in the tropics. Changes are generally larger for the more strongly forced| warmer A1B scenario than for the B1 scenario. The characterization of decadal variability changes in terms of potential predictability stems from the growing interest in producing forecasts for the next decade or several decades. The potential predictability identifies that fraction of the long time-scale variability that is| at least potentially and with enough information| predictable on decadal time scales. There is a general decrease in the internally generated decadal variability of temperature and its potential predictability in the warmer world. The decrease tends to be largest where the decadal potential predictability of the unforced control climate is largest over the high-latitude oceans. The potential predictability of precipitation is small to begin with and generally decreases further. Therefore| there is a potential decrease in the decadal potential predictability of the internally generated component in a warmer world. 10276,2009,3,2,Changes in material flows| treatment efficiencies and shifting of environmental loads in the wastewater treatment sector. Part I: Case study of the Netherlands,The material that is separated from wastewater in wastewater treatment plants has to be transferred from the water phase to the atmosphere| lithosphere| and/or biosphere (and also the technosphere). After the initial discharges into the different environmental media (and the technosphere)| there are further 'inter-sphere' leakages or redirections. However| these happen over protracted periods of time and have not been accounted for in this paper. The paper presents a case study on the wastewater treatment plants in the Netherlands| examines how the degree of separation of COD (BOD)| nitrogen| phosphorus and heavy metals from the wastewater have increased over time| and studies the changes in proportions separated out to the atmosphere and lithosphere. The hydrosphere has benefited from a decline in the degree of eutrophication and marine/fresh water toxicity| owing to the favourable combination of higher degrees of separation| over time| and source control| especially in the industrial sector. Global warming is a major concern owing to the increasing conversion of COD to carbon dioxide (and methane). Heavy metal and nitrogen emissions have been curbed thanks to source reduction within industries. Technologies have| of course| enabled some mitigation of the problems associated with atmospheric (global warming and toxicity) and lithospheric (toxicity) pollution| though these are beyond the scope of this paper| which assumes a hypothetical worst-case scenario in this regard for the study period 1993-2005. 10277,2009,3,4,Changes in material flows| treatment efficiencies and shifting of environmental loads in the wastewater treatment sector. Part II: Case study of Norway,In Part I| the wastewater treatment sector in the Netherlands was analyzed to determine how the degree of separation of COD (BOD)| nitrogen| phosphorus and heavy metals from the wastewater increased over time| and how the proportions of these substances| separated out from the wastewater into the lithosphere and atmosphere| changed over time. This paper applies the same methodology| adopted in the first part| to Norway. Needless to say| the hydrosphere has benefited from a decline in eutrophication and marine/fresh water toxicity| owing to the favourable combination of higher degrees of separation over time and source control| especially in the industrial sector. However| this has been at the expense of damage to the atmosphere (global warming). Technologies have| of course| enabled some mitigation of the problems that have shifted to the atmosphere and lithosphere| though these are beyond the scope of this paper| which assumes a hypothetical worst-case scenario in this regard. Whereas| in Part I| the time period 1993-2005 was considered| this paper is handicapped by the lack of availability of data and is restricted to a much narrower time period: 2002-2006. 9690,2009,2,3,Changes in mixed layer depth under climate change projections in two CGCMs,Two coupled general circulation models| i.e.| the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) models| were chosen to examine changes in mixed layer depth (MLD) in the equatorial tropical Pacific and its relationship with ENSO under climate change projections. The control experiment used pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations whereas the 2 x CO(2) experiment used doubled CO(2) levels. In the control experiment| the MLD simulated in the MRI model was shallower than that in the GFDL model. This resulted in the tropical Pacific's mean sea surface temperature (SST) increasing at different rates under global warming in the two models. The deeper the mean MLD simulated in the control simulation| the lesser the warming rate of the mean SST simulated in the 2 x CO(2) experiment. This demonstrates that the MLD is a key parameter for regulating the response of tropical mean SST to global warming. In particular| in the MRI model| increased stratification associated with global warming amplified wind-driven advection within the mixed layer| leading to greater ENSO variability. On the other hand| in the GFDL model| wind-driven currents were weak| which resulted in mixed-layer dynamics being less sensitive to global warming. The relationship between MLD and ENSO was also examined. Results indicated that the non-linearity between the MLD and ENSO is enhanced from the control run to the 2 x CO(2) run in the MRI model| in contrast| the linear relationship between the MLD index and ENSO is unchanged despite an increase in CO(2) concentrations in the GFDL model. 988,2009,2,4,CHANGES IN SEASONAL EVENTS| PEAK FOOD AVAILABILITY| AND CONSEQUENT BREEDING ADJUSTMENT IN A MARINE BIRD: A CASE OF PROGRESSIVE MISMATCHING,The breeding schedules of birds may not change at a rate sufficient to keep up with the current pace of climate change| causing reduced reproductive success. This disruption of synchrony is called the "mismatch hypothesis." We analyzed data on the breeding of Thick-billed Murres (Uric lomvia) at a colony in northern Hudson Bay| Canada| to examine the relative importance of matched and mismatched timing in determining the growth rates of nestlings. From 1988 to 2007 the date of break-up and 50% clearance of sea ice in surrounding waters advanced by 17 days| and the date on which the count of murres at the colony peaked| an index of food availability| advanced by the same amount. However| the median date of egg-laying advanced by only 5 days so that the number of days between the date of hatching and the date of peak attendance and 50% ice cover increased over the study period. Nestlings' growth was reduced in years when the counts of attending adults peaked early in the season and early relative to the date of hatching. These observations suggest that the timing of breeding is not advancing to keep pace with changes in the timing of events in the arctic marine environment| leading to greater difficulty in provisioning nestlings. We also demonstrate a relationship between the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation and both the date of peak colony attendance and the growth of nestlings. This relationship suggests that large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions influence the availability of prey for murres| although the mechanism by which this Occurs is not yet understood. Our results support the idea that mismatching of avian breeding cycles with peaks in food abundance is an important consequence of global climate change. 9799,2009,5,3,Changes in the Asian monsoon climate during 1700-1850 induced by preindustrial cultivation,Preindustrial changes in the Asian summer monsoon climate from the 1700s to the 1850s were estimated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using historical global land cover/use change data reconstructed for the last 300 years. Extended cultivation resulted in a decrease in monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and southeastern China and an associated weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation. The precipitation decrease in India was marked and was consistent with the observational changes derived from examining the Himalayan ice cores for the concurrent period. Between the 1700s and the 1850s| the anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases and aerosols were still minor; also| no long-term trends in natural climate variations| such as those caused by the ocean| solar activity| or volcanoes| were reported. Thus| we propose that the land cover/use change was the major source of disturbances to the climate during that period. This report will set forward quantitative examination of the actual impacts of land cover/use changes on Asian monsoons| relative to the impact of greenhouse gases and aerosols| viewed in the context of global warming on the interannual| decadal| and centennial time scales. 9663,2009,4,4,Changes in the Interannual Surface Air Temperature Variability in the Northern Hemisphere in Response to Global Warming,This paper examines long-term change in the interannual variability in surface air temperature and its cause by using monthly data generated in climate change experiments (1851-2100) performed using two models. Regions north of 20 degrees N are analyzed. Anomalies are defined as high-pass filtered values with a cutoff period of 30 years. Interannual variabilities of anomalies are expressed as the root mean square value for a 30 year period. Before global warming (around year 1900)| the interannual variability in temperature is large over sea areas north of 50 degrees N. This is because a large gradient of sea ice concentration brings about a large temperature gradient there. The interannual variability decreases generally in a cold season at high latitudes with global warming. In contrast to the general decrease of the interannual variability| there are some regions where it increases locally north of regions that show significant decrease around the Arctic. It can be understood that these phenomena are brought about by the decrease in the sea ice concentration gradient (i.e.| the decrease in the temperature gradient) in the southern part of the polar region and the increase in the sea ice concentration gradient (i.e.| the increase in the temperature gradient) in the northern part| due to the northward shift of sea ice edges. However| the degree of the decrease of the interannual variability is larger than that of the increase. This is because the global decrease of the temperature gradient strengthens the decrease of the interannual variability and weakens the increase. In addition| even over regions without sea ice| there are some areas where the interannual variability decreases. This is also because the temperature gradient decreases globally. 9818,2009,2,4,Changes in the spatio-temporal patterns and habitat preferences of Ambrosia artemisiifolia during its invasion of Austria,The invasion of Austria by the alien vascular plain Ambrosia artemisiifolia (Asteraceae) is analysed in detail| based on a survey of available records. In total| 697 records were collated. The first record for Austria is a herbarium specimen collected in 1883. Up to the end of the 1940s| records were rare and only of casual populations resulting front long-distance dispersal. Since the 1950s| the number of records has increased exponentially|and more than one third of all records (242) were collected in the last 5-year period (2001-2005) included in the survey. The first naturalized population was recorded in 1952| nearly 70 years after the first record of a casual Population. Recently| the number of naturalized populations increased considerably faster than that of casual populations. Several pathways (contaminated crops and bird seed| agricultural machines| transport of soil) have contributed to the high levels of propagule pressure and this successful invasion. Ambrosia artemisiifolia has undergone a niche expansion during the invasion process. Up to 1950| most records were from sites along railway routes| whereas in the period 1950-1974 it was mostly ruderal habitats| not associated with traffic infrastructure| which were colonized. Since the 1970s| records from roadsides have increased strongly and now dominate. Fields were colonized first in the 1970s and since then have gained in importance. The distribution of naturalized populations was related to environmental and climatic variables by means of a generalized linear model. Their distribution in Austria is closely related to temperature. Landscape variables| describing aspects of habitat availability (topography| land use| major street density) also significantly explain the current distribution of A. artemisiifolia Suitable habitats currently occur mainly in the eastern and southeastern lowlands. We conclude that global warming will disproportionally enhance the invasion success of A. artemisiifolia in Austria| even if there is only a slight increase in temperature| as significant areas of agricultural land in Austria are currently only slightly too cool fork artemisiifolia. The widespread occurrence of this species will have serious consequences for human health and agriculture. 1011,2009,2,4,Changes in the timing of egg-laying of a colonial seabird in relation to population size and environmental conditions,An emerging consequence of global climate change is its potential effect on the timing of seasonal biological events. Analysis of long-term datasets reveals a high degree of plasticity in the nature of phenological responses both within and among species| and understanding these differences is central to understanding the mechanisms and implications of climate-related change. We investigated factors influencing timing of breeding (median laying date) in a colonial nesting seabird| the common guillemot Uria aalge| over 23 breeding seasons between 1973 and 2008. There was a trend for earlier laying over this period| and earlier laying was associated with higher average breeding success. Multiple regression models (with de-trended explanatory variables to control for linear trends over time) indicate that the timing of breeding is positively correlated with a wide-scale climatic driver| the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (WNAO)| and negatively correlated with population size: guillemots lay later in years with high WNAO indices and earlier in years with larger populations. Responses to environmental conditions are probably related to indirect effects on timing or abundance of food availability| direct effects of weather or both. The mechanism(s) leading to a possible relationship between laying date and population size are less clear. They may be related to Allee-type effects associated with social stimulation| improved foraging efficiency or a density-dependent increase in breeding site quality. Given the correlative nature of these results| we are cautious about the role of non-climatic (intrinsic) factors| but we cannot exclude that they play a role alongside climatic (extrinsic) factors in influencing reproductive phenology. 10087,2009,2,4,Changing properties of precipitation concentration in the Pearl River basin| China,In this paper| precipitation concentrations across the Pearl River basin and the associated spatial patterns are analyzed based on daily precipitation data of 42 rain gauging stations during the period 1960-2005. Regions characterized by the different changing properties of precipitation concentration index (CI) are identified. The southwest and northeast parts of the Pearl River basin are characterized by lower and decreasing precipitation CI; the northwest and south parts of the study river basin show higher and increasing precipitation CI. Higher but decreasing precipitations CI are found in the West and East River basin. Comparison of precipitation CI trends before and after 1990 shows that most parts of the Pearl River basin are characterized by increasing precipitation CI after 1990. Decreasing precipitation CI after 1990 (compared to precipitation CI changes before 1990) is observed only in a few stations located in the lower Gui River and the lower Yu River. Significant increasing precipitation CI after 1990 is detected in the West River| lower North River and upper Beipan River. These changes of precipitation CI in the Pearl River basin are likely to be associated with the consequences of the well-evidenced global warming. These findings can contribute to basin-scale water resource management and conservation of ecological environment in the Pearl River basin. 948,2009,2,4,Characterisation of environmental forcing on Zostera marina L. plastochrone interval dynamics in the Punta Banda Estuary| BC Mexico: an empirical modelling approach,This paper presents a characterisation of the most significant environmental influences oil plastochrone interval variation for Zostera marina L. in Punta Banda estuary B.C. Mexico. Data were collected from April 1998 to December 2001. Using correlation and principal component analysis| We found that the combination of sea Surface temperature| light radiation and dissolved nutrients explains the observed variability consistently. Sea surface temperature was found to be the dominant environmental influence (r=0.89| p < 0.05). Using empirical modelling procedures we also found that there is a direct causal relationship between sea surface temperature and plastochrone interval values. In conclusion| from both a quantitative and a qualitative perspective sea surface temperature was found to summarise the relevant environmental forcing. Moreover| ENSO events control plastochrone interval variation throughout alterations in abiotic variables determining the observed dynamics. 9911,2009,3,3,Characterisation of soil emissions of nitric oxide at field and laboratory scale using high resolution method,Agricultural soils may account for 10% of anthropogenic emissions of NO| a precursor of tropospheric ozone with potential impacts on air quality and global warming. However| the estimation of this biogenic source strength and its relationships to crop management is still challenging because of the spatial and temporal variability of the NO fluxes. Here| we present a combination of new laboratory- and field-scale methods to characterise NO emissions and single out the effects of environmental drivers. First| NO fluxes were continuously monitored over the growing season of a maize-cropped field located near Paris (France)| using 6 automatic chambers. Mineral fertilizer nitrogen was applied from May to October 2005. An additional field experiment was carried out in October to test the effects of N fertilizer form on the NO emissions. The automatic chambers were designed to measure simultaneously the NO and N(2)O gases. Laboratory measurements were carried out in parallel using soil cores sampled at same site to test the response of NO fluxes to varying soil N-NH(4) and water contents| and temperatures. The effects of soil core thickness were also analysed. The highest NO fluxes occurred during the first 5 weeks following fertilizer application. The cumulative loss of NO-N over the growing season was estimated at 1.5 kg N ha(-1)| i.e. 1.1% of the N fertilizer dose (140 kg N ha(-1)). All rainfall events induced NO peak fluxes| whose magnitude decreased over time in relation to the decline of soil inorganic N. In October| NO emissions were enhanced with ammonium forms of fertilizer N. Conversely| the application of nitrate-based fertilizers did not significantly increase NO emissions compared to an unfertilized control. The results of the subsequent laboratory experiments were in accordance with the field observations in magnitude and time variations. NO emissions were maximum with a water soil content of 15% (w w(-1))| and with a NH(4)-N content of 180 mg NH(4)-N kg soil(-1). The response of NO fluxes to soil temperature was fitted with two exponential functions| involving a Q(10) of 2.0 below 20 degrees C and a Q(10) of 1.4 above. Field and laboratory experiments indicated that most of the NO fluxes originated from the top 10 cm of soil. The characterisation of this layer in terms of mean temperature| NH(4) and water contents is thus paramount to explaining the variations of NO fluxes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 786,2009,2,4,Characteristics and Causes of Changes of Pan Evaporation in China During 1957-2001,Evaporation is an important component of surface heat and water balance| and is affected directly by land use and climate change. This paper studies the changes of evaporation in China associated with the global climate change| and explores characteristics of the corresponding regional water cycle variations. The 20-cm-caliber pan evaporation measurements collected from 427 meteorological stations in China from 1957 to 2001 are analyzed to disclose the small-pan evaporation variation trend in China and the associated causes. The results show that although the animal average temperature over China exhibits an upward tendency of 0.2 degrees C/10 yr for the past 45 years| the pan evaporation oil the whole has decreased by -34.12 mm/10 yr. Nonetheless| a significant increase of pan evaporation is observed in a few areas such as the northern part of the Greater Hingan Mountains in Northeast China and the Beishan Mountains in Inner Mongolia. The largest decrease of pan evaporation lies in East China| northern parts of Northwest China| South China| and southern Tibet. An analysis of energy balance and aerodynamics using Penman's formula proves that the drop of pan evaporation in East China is mainly due to a significant decline of source energy for evaporation| while that in West China is mostly attributed to an aerodynamic reduction. The analysis oil tendencies of various meteorological and other related factors shows that wind speed and sunshine hours are two most important factors causing the pan evaporation reduction in China. 10200,2009,3,4,Characteristics of Perfluoroethane Thermal Decomposition,Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) gases have high global warming potential (GWP) and a long lifetime in the atmosphere. It is difficult to decompose these gases due to their tetrahedral structure arising from strong C-F bonds. This paper discussed C(2)F(6) (one of PFCs gases) thermal decomposition characteristic under 950-1100 degrees C in a laboratory scale reactor. The effects of C(2)F(6) initial concentration| reaction temperature| residence time on C(2)F(6) decomposition ratio were also investigated. The experimental results indicate that the lower initial C(2)F(6) concentration| higher reaction temperature| longer residence time can promote C(2)F(6) decomposition ratio. On the basis of the results| it can be drawn that the reaction order of C(2)F(6) thermal decomposition is between 0 and 1. Above 90% C(2)F(6) decomposition ratio can be achieved under a temperature of 1100 degrees C| 223.21 mu mol/L initial C(2)F(6) concentration and 2 s residence time. Basis on the calculation| the activation energy (E) and the frequency factor (A) of C(2)F(6) thermal decomposition in the temperature range of 950-1100 degrees C were 313.2 kJ/mol and 8.8 x 10(11) s(-1)| respectively. 10065,2009,2,4,Characteristics of severe Atlantic hurricanes in the United States: 1949-2006,Property insurance data available for 1949-2006 were assessed to get definitive measures of hurricane losses in the U.S. Catastrophes| events causing >$1 million in losses| were most frequent in the Southeast and South climate regions. Losses in these two regions totaled $127 billion| 85% of the nation's total losses. During the period 1949-2006 there were 79 hurricane catastrophes| causing $150.6 billion in losses and averaging $2.6 billion per year. All aspects of these hurricanes showed increases in post-1990 years. Sizes of loss areas averaged one state in 1949-1967| but grew to 3 states during 1990-2006. Seven of the ten most damaging hurricanes came in 2004 (4) and 2005 (3). The number of hurricanes also peaked during 1984-2006| increasing from an annual average of 1.2 during 1949-1983 to 2.1 per year. Losses were $49.3 billion in 1991-2006| 32% of the 58-year total. Various reasons have been offered for such recent increases in hurricane losses including more hurricanes| more intense tropical storms| increased societal vulnerability in storm-prone areas| and a change in climate due to global warming| although this is debatable. 9557,2009,2,4,Characteristics of thunderstorms and squalls over Indira Gandhi International (IGI) airport| New Delhi - Impact on environment especially on summer's day temperatures and use in forecasting,In the present study| commencement timings and duration of thunderstorms (TS) and squalls at IGI airport| Palam| New Delhi have been analysed critically based on most recent eleven years data of 1995-2005 to find their favourable time of occurrences. Then utility of Such data base in the aviation warning has been demonstrated. Environmental changes associated with these squalls have also been further analysed to understand their impact. Being recent May 2007 a very cool month over Delhi| the role of TS on controlling the day's soaring temperature has also been studied from their data. Results show TS are maximum in June followed by July whereas squalls are maximum in May followed by June. It shows more than 80% of TS in each season are of duration less than 3 hours with remaining are mostly 3 to 6 hours. The peak time period of commencement of both TS and squalls in the day differ with the progress of the months. For pre monsoon months| the most favourable timing of TS and squalls are 1200-1500 UTC while for monsoon| it starts earlier. Around 37% of the total TS during the period were associated with squalls. The average maximum wind speed in squall at IGI airport is about 68 kmph with highest maximum wind speed 139 kmph. On an average the environmental temperature falls by 5.6 degrees C| humidity levels rises by 17.8% and mean sea level pressure rises by 1.6 hPa due to the occurrences of squalls. Study also shows daily maximum temperature rise is highly controlled by TS occurrences and May 2007| being a month of highest TS Occurrences at the airport since 1995| became one of the coolest month in May over Delhi. The comparison of TS frequencies shows 12% increase in their annual activities since 1950-1980 with very high unusual increase of 51 % in June and 26% in May. Since analysis of data from 1995 shows occurrences of TS are reversely but strongly correlated with summer temperatures and longer period temperature data since 1975 also confirms absence of significant trend in maximum temperature and higher temperature days in peak summer months of May and June till recent as expected due to high pollution| global warming and fast urbanization in the city| so it is the higher number of TS occurrences over the region from time to time which might have been main factor for controlling its significant rise. 10045,2009,3,4,Characterization Factors for Global Warming in Life Cycle Assessment Based on Damages to Humans and Ecosystems,Human and ecosystem health damage due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is generally poorly quantified in the life cycle assessment of products| preventing an integrated comparison of the importance of GHGs with other stressor types| such as ozone depletion and acidifying emissions. In this study| we derived new characterization factors for 63 GHGs that quantify the impact of an emission change on human and ecosystem health damage. For human health damage| the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per unit emission related to malaria| diarrhea| malnutrition| drowning| and cardiovascular diseases were quantified. For ecosystem health damage| the Potentially Disappeared Fraction (PDF) over space and time of various species groups| including plants| butterflies| birds| and mammals| per unit emission was calculated. The influence of value choices in the modeling procedure was analyzed by defining three coherent scenarios| based on Cultural theory perspectives. It was found that the characterization factor for human health damage by carbon dioxide (CO(2)) ranges from 1.1 x 10(-2) to 1.8 x 10(+1) DALY per kton of emission| while the characterization factor for ecosystem damage by CO(2) ranges from 5.4 x 10(-2) to 1.2 x 10(+1) disappeared fraction of species over space and time ((km(2).year)/kton)| depending on the scenario chosen. The characterization factor of a GHG can change up to 4 orders of magnitude| depending on the scenario. The scenario-specific differences are mainly explained by the choice for a specific time horizon and stresses the importance of dealing with value choices in the life cycle impact assessment of GHG emissions. 877,2009,4,4,Characterization of organic compounds and molecular tracers from biomass burning smoke in South China I: Broad-leaf trees and shrubs,Biomass burning smoke constituents are worthy of concern due to its influence on climate and human health. The organic constituents and distributions of molecular tracers emitted from burning smoke of six natural vegetations including monsoon evergreen broad-leaf trees and shrubs in South China were determined in this study. The gas and particle samples were collected and analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The major organic components in these smoke samples are methoxyphenols from lignin and saccharides from cellulose. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are also present as minor constituents. Furanose| pyranose and their dianhydrides are the first reported in the biomass burning smoke. Some unique biomarkers were detected in this study which may be useful as specific tracers. The corresponding tracer/OC ratios are used as indicators for the two types of biomass burning. U/R (1.06-1.72) in the smoke samples may be used as parameters to distinguish broad-leaf trees and shrubs from fossil fuel. Other useful diagnostic ratios such as methylphenanthrene to phenanthrene (MPhe/Phe)| phenanthrene to phenanthrene plus anthracene (Phe/(Phe + Ant)) and fluoranthene to fluoranthene plus pyrene (Flu/(Flu + Pyr)) and octadecenoic acid/OC are also identified in this study. These results are useful in efforts to better understand the emission characterization of biomass burning in South China and the contribution of regional biomass burning to global climate change. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10194,2009,3,3,Chemical Recycling off Carbon Dioxide to Methanol and Dimethyl Ether: From Greenhouse Gas to Renewable| Environmentally Carbon Neutral Fuels and Synthetic Hydrocarbons,Nature's photosynthesis uses the sun's energy with chlorophyll in plants as a catalyst to recycle carbon dioxide and water into new plant life. Only given Sufficient geological time can new fossil fuels be formed naturally. In contrast| chemical recycling of carbon dioxide from natural and industrial Sources as well as varied human activities or even from the air itself to methanol or dimethyl ether (DME) and their varied products can be achieved via its capture and subsequent reductive hydrogenative conversion. The present Perspective reviews this new approach and our research in the field over the last 15 years. Carbon recycling represents a significant aspect of our proposed Methanol Economy. Any available energy source (alternative energies such as solar| wind| geothermal| and atomic energy) can be used for the production of needed hydrogen and chemical conversion of CO(2). Improved new methods for the efficient reductive conversion of CO(2) to methanol and/or DME that we have developed include bireforming with methane and ways of catalytic or electrochemical conversions. Liquid methanol is preferable to highly volatile and potentially explosive hydrogen for energy storage and transportation. Together with the derived DME| they are excellent transportation fuels for internal combustion engines (ICE) and fuel cells as well as convenient starting materials for synthetic hydrocarbons and their varied products. Carbon dioxide thus can be chemically transformed from a detrimental greenhouse gas causing global warming into a valuable| renewable and inexhaustible carbon source of the future allowing environmentally neutral use of carbon fuels and derived hydrocarbon products.
9793,2009,4,4,Chemical weathering and associated CO(2) consumption in the Godavari river basin| India,The study gives insight into the source of major ions concentration and their seasonal variability| chemical weathering rates and associated CO(2) consumption in the Godavari River Basin (GRB). The results show that the Godavari river basin water was mildly alkaline| with a wide range of TDS (40 to 550 mgL(-1)). The most dominant anion was HCO(3)(-) followed by Cl(-) and the most dominant cation was Ca(2+) followed by Na(+) for all three sampling seasons. The average molar ratio of Cl(-)/Na(+) was 0.59 in pre-monsoon| 0.51 for post-monsoon and 0.66 in monsoon| which is lower than the values| reported in earlier studies. The range of precipitation corrected molar ratio for (Ca(2+)/Na(+)) was 0.20 to 1.84 in pre-monsoon| 0.59 to 1.59 in post-monsoon and 0.35 to 2.09 in monsoon season| (Mg(2+)/Na(+)) was 0.26 to 1.18| 0.24 to 0.62 and 0.17 to 1.42 in pre-monsoon| post-monsoon and monsoon respectively. while (HCO(3)(-)/Na(+)) was 2.08 to 7.0 in pre-monsoon|1.98 to 4.05 in post-monsoon and 1.67 to 5.79 in monsoon| which indicated the influence of basalt weathering on river water chemistry. Factor analysis indicated the vital role of silicate and carbonate weathering along with atmospheric and anthropogenic input that govern the water chemistry of the GRB. The chemical weathering rate of GRB varied from 17.61 to 68.16 tkm(-2)y(-1) with an average of 39.49 tkm(-2)y(-1) in pre-monsoon| from 27.94 to 65.67 with the average of 42.02 tkm(-2)y(-1) in post-monsoon season and from 17.53 to 62.95 tkm(-2)y(-1) with an average value of 34.69 tkm(-2)y(-1) in monsoon. The associated CO(2) consumption rate due to chemical weathering in the GRB was similar to 0.25 x 10(12) mol y(-1) which is similar to 1.04% of the annual global CO(2) consumption (24 x 10(12) mol y(-1)) by chemical weathering of silicate and carbonate rocks. The average annual CO(2) drawdown by Deccan trap (area 5 x 10(5) km(2)) based on CO(2) consumption rate due to silicate weathering determined in this study was 0.29 x 10(12) mol y(-1)| similar to 2.48% of the annual global CO(2) consumption (11.7 x 10(12) mol y(-1)) by silicate weathering [Gaillardet. J.| Dupre| B.| Allegre| C.J.| 1999. Global silicate weathering and CO(2) consumption rates deduced from the chemistry of large rivers. Chemical Geology 159| 3-30.]. The present study was the first attempt to calculate weathering rate of Deccan trap using major ion chemistry of the Godavari River water| the third largest river in India. The study further provides the inventory for CO(2) consumption on river basin scale| which is an important consideration from the point of view of global warming| (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10283,2009,3,4,Choosing a sustainable demolition waste management strategy using multicriteria decision analysis,This paper presents an application of the ELECTRE III decision-aid method in the context of choosing a sustainable demolition waste management strategy for a case study in the city of Lyon| France. This choice of waste management strategy takes into consideration the sustainable development objectives| i.e. economic aspects| environmental consequences| and social issues. Nine alternatives for demolition waste management were compared with the aid of eight criteria| taking into account energy consumption| depletion of abiotic resources| global warming| dispersion of dangerous substances in the environment| economic activity| employment. and quality of life of the local population. The case study concerned the demolition of 25 buildings of an old military camp. Each alternative was illustrated with different waste treatments| such as material recovery| recycling| landfilling| and energy recovery. The recommended solution for sustainable demolition waste management for the case study is a selective deconstruction of each building with local material recovery in road engineering of inert wastes| local energy recovery of wood wastes| and specific treatments for hazardous wastes. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9858,2009,2,4,Chronic exposure to increasing background ozone impairs stomatal functioning in grassland species,Two species found in temperate calcareous and mesotrophic grasslands (Dactylis glomerata and Leontodon hispidus) were exposed to eight ozone treatments spanning preindustrial to post-2100 regimes| and late-season effects on stomatal functioning were investigated. The plants were grown as a mixed community in 14 L containers and were exposed to ozone in ventilated solardomes (dome-shaped greenhouses) for 20 weeks from early May to late September 2007. Ozone exposures were based on O(3) concentrations from a nearby upland area| and provided the following seasonal 24 h means: 21.4| 39.9 (simulated ambient)| 50.2| 59.4| 74.9| 83.3| 101.3 and 102.5 ppb. In both species| stomatal conductance of undamaged inner canopy leaves developing since a midseason cutback increased linearly with increasing background ozone concentration. Imposition of severe water stress by leaf excision indicated that increasing background ozone concentration decreased the ability of leaves to limit water loss| implying impaired stomatal control. The threshold ozone concentrations for these effects were 15-40 ppb above current ambient in upland UK| and were within the range of ozone concentrations anticipated for much of Europe by the latter part of this century. The potential mechanism behind the impaired stomatal functioning was investigated using a transpiration assay. Unlike for lower ozone treatments| apparently healthy green leaves of L. hispidus that had developed in the 101.3 ppb treatment did not close their stomata in response to 1.5 mu m abscisic acid (ABA); indeed stomatal opening initially occurred in this treatment. Thus| ozone appears to be disrupting the ABA-induced signal transduction pathway for stomatal control thereby reducing the ability of plants to respond to drought. These results have potentially wide-reaching implications for the functioning of communities under global warming where periods of soil drying and episodes of high vapour pressure deficit are likely to be more severe. 9770,2009,3,2,Cleaner energy for sustainable future,This special issue of the journal of Cleaner Production focuses on "Energy for Sustainable Future". It is designed to mirror the increasing relevance of renewable energy sources and improved efficiency as crucial topics for practitioners in industry| for governmental policy makers| as well as for civic service providers| researchers| and educators. The purpose of this special issue is to serve as a catalyst for dialogue. The global warming related to CO(2) emissions| coupled with steeply rising energy prices and the recent global financial institutional melt-down are causing massive societal concerns and give rise to increasing demand for ways to improve societal and individual energy efficiency and for ways to shift increasingly to alternative| low or non-carbon based energy systems. Until recently| industrial energy efficiency improvements have focused on improvements on efficiency rather than on the integration of renewable sources. The aim of this special issue is the identification of policies to support the development and implementation of technologies and management approaches we can employ to make the transition to more sustainable societies. The collection of papers in this special issue provide a foundation for students| researchers| scholars| practitioners and policy makers interested in making sustainable development more than a metaphor. The papers include focus upon ways for: (a) Improving industrial process to achieve improvements in energy efficiency. (b) Minimising waste disposals and reducing their impact through better management. (c) Reducing CO(2) emissions by making progress toward lower carbon| renewable energy based systems| (d) Improving production of biofuels and hydrogen production systems| facilitated by employing cleaner production and novel LCA tools. (e) Improving integration of advanced materials and energy efficient equipment in different industrial sectors. Current and future developments in national and world economies are closely connected to sustainable| efficient and safe usage of raw materials and upon energy based on cleaner production concepts and approaches that are ecologically and economically appropriate for the short and for the long-term future of society. These challenges have received considerable attention in the media and scientific journals over the last several years. The idea of developing a specialised conference focussed upon them was put forward on various occasions. Focus upon them became reality on the 5th and 6th May 2008 in the historic Castle of Veszprem| Hungary| the current premises of the Hungarian Academy of Science which hosted the Workshop. The Workshop was a stimulating event and an overwhelming success| with nearly 100 contributors from Africa| North America| Asia and Europe| representing 28 countries. After a comprehensive selection and thorough reviewing procedure 11 papers were selected for this special issue. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 9649,2009,2,4,Climate and Dirofilaria infection in Europe,Climatic changes| together with an increase in the movement of cats and dogs across Europe| have caused an increase in the geographical range of several vector borne parasites like Dirofilaria| and in the risk of infection for animals and humans. The present paper reviews the effects of climate and other global drivers on Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens infections in Europe and the possible implications on the transmission and control of these mosquito-borne nematodes. In the last several years| growing degree day (GDD)-based forecast models| which use wide or local scale temperature data| have been developed to predict the occurrence and seasonality of Dirofilaria in different parts of the world. All these models are based on the fact that: there is a threshold of 14 degrees C below which Dirofilaria development will not proceed; and there is a requirement of 130 GDD for larvae to reach infectivity and a maximum life expectancy of 30 days for a vector mosquito. The output of these models predicts that the summer temperatures (with peaks in July) are sufficient to facilitate extrinsic incubation of Dirofilaria even at high latitudes. The global warming projected by the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that warm summers suitable for Dirofilaria transmission in Europe will be the rule in the future decades and if the actual trend of temperature increase continues| filarial infection should spread into previously infection-free areas. These factors not only favour incubation of Dirofilaria| but also impact on mosquito species. Recent findings have also demonstrated that Aedes albopictus is now considered to be an important| competent vector of Dirofilaria infections. This mosquito species could spread from southern to northern European countries in the near future| changing the epidemiological patterns of dirofilariosis both in humans and animals. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10117,2009,2,4,Climate and vegetation change during the twentieth century in the lower Peace River district| northern Alberta| Canada,A 96-yr climate record (1908-2004)| historical descriptions| multiyear (1950| 1964| 1978| 1994) lake-surface area measurements| and 1950 and 2004 physiognomically based vegetation maps were compiled to assess vegetation change in the Fox Lake area (4248 ha) within the lower Peace River district of northern Alberta. A climate warming trent (r = 0.615| P < 0.001; 0.35 degrees C/decade) was evident during the twentieth century| with peak precipitation occuring from 1970 to 1990. Five major wet-dry cycles| based on net water balance values (precipitation minus potential evaporation)| were evident with peaks occuring at about 17(+/- 3) year intervals. Each cycle became slightly less arid than the previous until the mid-1990s. Deciduous forests dominated upland sites in 2004| whereas deciduous shrub and juvenile tree stands comprised 78% in 1950. Total wetland area remained relateively constant between 1950 and 2004| but less meadow and more standing water were present in 2004. Lake-surface area changes suggested that wetlands were recharged by precipitatio rather than floodwaters from the nearby Peace River. Low water availability and historical descriptions suggest grassland-dominated parkland-like vegetation occured in the study area during the early part of the twentieth century| with upland shrubs replacing grasslands by 1950. Increased atmospheric water availability rather than cessation of aboriginal burning or natural fires was considered responsible for increased forest abundance after 1945. Greater aridity in response to future global warming could reduce the abundance of forests in lower Peace River district| and shift the regional climate from a boreal to a grassland-dominated parkland climatic regime. 10329,2009,3,4,Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Resource Management and Conservation Planning,Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology| phenology| species distributions| interspecific interactions| and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here| the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change| managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed| key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change| a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change| how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species| how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems| and perhaps most importantly| in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied. 770,2009,2,4,Climate change alters reproductive isolation and potential gene flow in an annual plant,Climate change will likely cause evolution due not only to selection but also to changes in reproductive isolation within and among populations. We examined the effects of a natural drought on the timing of flowering in two populations of Brassica rapa and the consequences for predicted reproductive isolation and potential gene flow. Seeds were collected before and after a 5-year drought in southern California from two populations varying in soil moisture. Lines derived from these seeds were raised in the greenhouse under wet and drought conditions. We found that the natural drought caused changes in reproductive timing and that the changes were greater for plants from the wet than from the dry site. This differential shift caused the populations to become more phenological similar| which should lead to less reproductive isolation and increased gene flow. We estimated a high level of assortative mating by flowering time| which potentially contributed to the rapid evolution of phenological traits following the drought. Estimates of assortative mating were higher for the wet site population| and assortative mating was reduced following the drought. This study shows that climate change can potentially alter gene flow and reproductive isolation within and among populations| strongly influencing evolution. 9843,2009,2,4,Climate change and coral reef connectivity,This review assesses and predicts the impacts that rapid climate change will have on population connectivity in coral reef ecosystems| using fishes as a model group. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to accelerate larval development| potentially leading to reduced pelagic durations and earlier reef-seeking behaviour. Depending on the spatial arrangement of reefs| the expectation would be a reduction in dispersal distances and the spatial scale of connectivity. Small increase in temperature might enhance the number of larvae surviving the pelagic phase| but larger increases are likely to reduce reproductive output and increase larval mortality. Changes to ocean currents could alter the dynamics of larval supply and changes to planktonic productivity could affect how many larvae survive the pelagic stage and their condition at settlement; however| these patterns are likely to vary greatly from place-to-place and projections of how oceanographic features will change in the future lack sufficient certainty and resolution to make robust predictions. Connectivity could also be compromised by the increased fragmentation of reef habitat due to the effects of coral bleaching and ocean acidification. Changes to the spatial and temporal scales of connectivity have implications for the management of coral reef ecosystems| especially the design and placement of marine-protected areas. The size and spacing of protected areas may need to be strategically adjusted if reserve networks are to retain their efficacy in the future. 10289,2009,3,1,Climate Change and Drying of Agricultural Products,Global warming is affecting the world and will continue to affect humans and the ecosystem in the future| in different regions of the earth in diverse ways: air temperature rise| modifications in the precipitation and snow/ice melting rates| sea level rise| changes in geographical distribution| and even extinction of some plants and animals. In particular| the predictions presented in the 2007 Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| Working Group 1 (available at www.ipcc.ch) for the mean temperature increase in the present century is about (31)C/century for a middle range scenario of human behavior. Mitigation measures need to be taken urgently in all aspects of activities in order to reduce the future impact of the temperature augmentation. In particular| the drying process (as well as the pre- and post-drying operations) needs to be reanalyzed| in order to try to participate in this world effort to reduce the impact of anthropogenic activities that introduce in the atmosphere an excess of greenhouse gases (GHG). The energy savings| use of renewable energies| optimization of each part of the drying process| and use of control devices for detecting and minimizing the atmospheric injection of GHG are some of a large number of possible actions to be taken in this respect. A nice example of how a planetary problem can be solved with the global participation of scientists| professionals| authorities and general public is the stopping of the destruction of the ozone layer and its possible recuperation in the near future| as discussed in the WMO related report (Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006| that can be obtained at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ozone2006/ozoneasstreport.html).[10]. 950,2009,2,4,Climate Change and Health in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Case-Based Perspective,Over the coming decades| sub-Saharan Africa will face profound stresses and challenges from global climate change. Many of these will manifest as adverse health outcomes. This article uses a series of five hypothetical cases to review the climate impacts on the health and well-being of individuals and populations in sub-Saharan Africa. This approach fosters insights into the human dimensions of the risks to health| their interaction with local human ecology| and awareness of the diverse health ramifications of external environmental changes. Each case illustrates the health impact resulting from a specific environmental or social consequence of climate change| including impacts on agriculture and food security| droughts| floods| malaria| and population displacement. Whereas the article focuses on discrete manifestations of climate change| individuals will| in practice| face multiple stresses from climate change (i.e.| floods and malaria) concomitant with other non-climate stressors (i.e.| HIV/AIDS| globalization| etc.). These multiple sources of vulnerability must be considered when designing climate change and socioeconomic development interventions. 10078,2009,2,4,Climate change and its consequences for water and wastewater management,Life| in combination with solar radiation and abiotic processes| is most probably the reason why liquid water has existed on Earth for over billions of years| and the global mean temperature has remained in a life-enabling range. Efforts to limit or even reverse global warming must be derived from the knowledge of the Earth's complex life-support system. In this context| the balance between liquid and gaseous water plays a crucial role| and water management becomes an important field of innovation and action| globally| on the scale of watersheds but also on the very local level. Cascading use| reuse| and temporary storage of water in urban settings must be considered to limit over-extraction of water from natural resources| and to maintain the life supporting function of ecosystems. At the same time| public health requirements| cost efficiency| and reliability demands are to be met. 10066,2009,2,4,Climate change and its impact on the forests of Kilimanjaro,Cloud forests are of great importance in the hydrological functioning of watersheds in subhumid East Africa. However| the montane forests of Mt. Kilimanjaro are heavily threatened by global change impacts. Based on an evaluation of over 1500 vegetation plots and interpretation of satellite imagery from 1976 and 2000| land-cover changes on Kilimanjaro were evaluated and their impact on the water balance estimated. While the vanishing glaciers of Kilimanjaro attract broad interest| the associated increase of frequency and intensity of fires on the slopes of Kilimanjaro is less conspicuous but ecologically far more significant. These climate change-induced fires have lead to changes in species composition and structure of the forests and to a downward shift of the upper forest line by several hundred metres. During the last 70 years| Kilimanjaro has lost nearly one-third of its forest cover| in the upper areas caused by fire| on the lower forest border mainly caused by clearing. The loss of 150 km(2) of cloud forest - the most effective source in the upper montane and subalpine fog interception zone - caused by fire during the last three decades means a considerable reduction in water yield. In contrast to common belief| global warming does not necessarily cause upward migration of plants and animals. On Kilimanjaro the opposite trend is under way| with consequences more harmful than those due to the loss of the showy ice cap of Africa's highest mountain. 9917,2009,2,4,Climate change and large-scale degradation of spruce: common pattern across the globe,Massive degradation of spruce Picea spp. forests| due to increased temperatures| has been reported from many parts of the world. We have detected large-scale yellowing of Picea smithiana Boiss. in the western Himalayas| where temperatures have increased by 0.6 degrees C in the last 3 decades. Large-scale degradation of P. smithiana has never been observed in the Himalayan region to date. 9860,2009,2,4,Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence,Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century| with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent| elevation range| and spatial resolution of data used in making these models| different rates of habitat loss have been predicted| with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolutions and geographic extents. Here| we assess whether climate change-induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10 x 10' grid cells) are also predicted from local-scale data and modeling (25 m x 25 m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10 x 10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local-scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations. 754,2009,2,4,Climate change and seasonal reproduction in mammals,Seasonal reproduction is common among mammals at all latitudes| even in the deep tropics. This paper (i) discusses the neuroendocrine pathways via which foraging conditions and predictive cues such as photoperiod enforce seasonality| (ii) considers the kinds of seasonal challenges mammals actually face in natural habitats| and (iii) uses the information thus generated to suggest how seasonal reproduction might be influenced by global climate change. Food availability and ambient temperature determine energy balance| and variation in energy balance is the ultimate cause of seasonal breeding in all mammals and the proximate cause in many. Photoperiodic cueing is common among long-lived mammals from the highest latitudes down to the mid-tropics. It is much less common in shorter lived mammals at all latitudes. An unknown predictive cue triggers reproduction in some desert and dry grassland species when it rains. The available information suggests that as our climate changes the small rodents of the world may adapt rather easily but the longer lived mammals whose reproduction is regulated by photoperiod may not do so well. A major gap in our knowledge concerns the tropics; that is where most species live and where we have the least understanding of how reproduction is regulated by environmental factors. 10023,2009,2,4,Climate change and the geography of weed damage: Analysis of US maize systems suggests the potential for significant range transformations,By the end of the century| climate change projections under a "business-as-usual" emissions scenario suggest a globally averaged warming of 2.4-6.4 degrees C. If these forecasts are realized| cropping systems are likely to experience significant geographic range transformations among damaging endemic weed species and new vulnerabilities to exotic weed invasions. To anticipate these changes and to devise management strategies for proactively addressing them| it is necessary to characterize the environmental conditions that make specific weed species abundant| competitive| and therefore damaging the production of particular crops (i.e. defining the damage niche). In this study| U.S. maize is used as a model system to explore the implications of climate change on the distribution of damaging agricultural weeds. To accomplish this| we couple ensemble climate change projections of annual temperature and precipitation with survey data of troublesome weed species in maize. At the state scale| space-for-time substitution techniques are used to suggest the potential magnitude of change among damaging weed communities. To explore how the geography of damage for specific species may evolve over the next century| bioclimatic range rules were derived for two weed species that are pervasive in the Northern (Abutilon theophrasti Medicus| ABUTH) and Southern (Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers.| SORHA) U.S. Results from both analyses suggest that the composition of damaging weed communities may be fundamentally altered by climate change. In some states| potential changes in the coming decades are commensurate to those possible by the end of the century. Regions such as the Northeastern U.S. may prove particularly vulnerable with emerging climate conditions favoring few weed species of present-day significance. In contrast| regions like the mid-South are likely to experience fewer shifts even with a similar magnitude in climate change. By the end of the century in the U.S. Corn Belt| cold-tolerant species likeA. theophrasti may be of minor importance whereas S. halepense| a predominantly Southern U.S. weed species at present| may become common and damaging to maize production with its damage niche advancing 200-600 km north of its present-day distribution. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10139,2009,2,3,Climate Change and Trophic Response of the Antarctic Bottom Fauna,Background: As Earth warms| temperate and subpolar marine species will increasingly shift their geographic ranges poleward. The endemic shelf fauna of Antarctica is especially vulnerable to climate-mediated biological invasions because cold temperatures currently exclude the durophagous (shell-breaking) predators that structure shallow-benthic communities elsewhere. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used the Eocene fossil record from Seymour Island| Antarctic Peninsula| to project specifically how global warming will reorganize the nearshore benthos of Antarctica. A long-term cooling trend| which began with a sharp temperature drop similar to 41 Ma (million years ago)| eliminated durophagous predators-teleosts (modern bony fish)| decapod crustaceans (crabs and lobsters) and almost all neoselachian elasmobranchs (modern sharks and rays) from Antarctic nearshore waters after the Eocene. Even prior to those extinctions| durophagous predators became less active as coastal sea temperatures declined from 41 Ma to the end of the Eocene| similar to 33.5 Ma. In response| dense populations of suspension-feeding ophiuroids and crinoids abruptly appeared. Dense aggregations of brachiopods transcended the cooling event with no apparent change in predation pressure| nor were there changes in the frequency of shell-drilling predation on venerid bivalves. Conclusions/Significance: Rapid warming in the Southern Ocean is now removing the physiological barriers to shell-breaking predators| and crabs are returning to the Antarctic Peninsula. Over the coming decades to centuries| we predict a rapid reversal of the Eocene trends. Increasing predation will reduce or eliminate extant dense populations of suspension-feeding echinoderms from nearshore habitats along the Peninsula while brachiopods will continue to form large populations| and the intensity of shell-drilling predation on infaunal bivalves will not change appreciably. In time the ecological effects of global warming could spread to other portions of the Antarctic coast. The differential responses of faunal components will reduce the endemic character of Antarctic subtidal communities| homogenizing them with nearshore communities at lower latitudes. 9741,2009,2,4,Climate change and tropical marine agriculture,The coral reef ecosystem forms part of a 'seascape' that includes land-based ecosystems such as mangroves and forests| and ideally should form a complete system for conservation and management. Aquaculture| including artisanal fishing for fish and invertebrates| shrimp farming| and seaweed farming| is a major part of the farming and gleaning practices of many tropical communities| particularly on small islands| and depends upon the integrity of the reefs. Climate change is making major impacts on these communities| not least through global warming and high CO(2) concentrations. Corals grow within very narrow limits of temperature| provide livelihoods for millions of people in tropical areas| and are under serious threat from a variety of environmental and climate extremes. Corals survive and grow through a symbiotic relationship with photosynthetic algae: zooxanthellae. Such systems apply highly co-operative regulation to minimize the fluctuation of metabolite concentration profiles in the face of transient perturbations. This review will discuss research on how climate influences reef ecosystems| and how science can lead to conservation actions| with benefits for the human populations reliant on the reefs for their survival. 10115,2009,3,4,Climate change and water desalination in MENA - World Bank involvement,This paper presents the water sector challenges and the expected impact due to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The World Bank and other international funding agencies recognized the already existing water crisis in many places around the world. As an outcome to an integrated water resources management there will be a need for proper Supply and demand management. However| the enhancement of the existing water resources via wastewater reuse and brackish and seawater desalination is eminent. It will be even applied at a larger scale when the adverse effect of the climate change on water resources will be considered. The World Bank is allocating billions of dollars to mitigate for the climate change and reduce the global warming effects via the improvement in the energy efficiency| energy conservation and enhancement of renewable energy resources. Some mechanisms where established that the water resources enhancement can benefit from. These include the Clean Development Mechanism and the Joint Implementation in relation to the Carbon Financing. The paper will touch base on the wide perspective of the Bank's initiatives and mechanisms aiming at securing water Supply under expected increasing scarcity. 10343,2009,2,3,Climate change and wheat production in Argentina,The aim of this work is to assess the impact of past and future climate changes on wheat productivity in the Pampas region of Argentina. The study was based on long-term climatic and crop productivity data| regional climatic scenarios and a crop simulation model. Our results demonstrate that the potential wheat yield has been declining at increasing rates since 1930 mainly due to minimum temperature increases. Further increases in temperature could lead to potential wheat yield reductions of 7.5% for each degrees C of temperature rise. If the expected effects of CO(2) really do occur| the decline of the potential wheat yields due to temperatures that are 2.5 degrees C warmer could be entirely offset by a CO(2) concentration of 550 ppm. If the CO(2) effects are not considered| rainfed wheat yields could be reduced by 4% by the end of the 21st century (2080)| the northern part of the Pampas region being the most affected zone. Inversely| if the CO(2) effects are considered| rainfed wheat yield could increase by 14%. Advancing planting dates could be a good strategy to take advantage of new environmental conditions with prolonged frost-free periods. 9804,2009,2,3,Climate change effects on landslides along the southwest coast of British Columbia,Antecedent rainfall and short-term intense rainfall both contribute to the temporal occurrence of landslides in British Columbia. These two quantities can be extracted from the precipitation regimes simulated by climate models. This makes such models an attractive tool for use in the investigation of the effect of global warming on landslide frequencies. In order to provide some measure of the reliability of models used to address the landslide question| the present-day simulation of the antecedent precipitation and short-term rainfall using the daily data from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis model (CGCM) is compared to observations along the south coast of British Columbia. This evaluation showed that the model was reasonably successful in simulating statistics of the antecedent rainfall but was less successful in simulating the short-term rainfall. The monthly mean precipitation data from an ensemble of 19 of the world's global climate models were available to study potential changes in landslide frequencies with global warming. Most of the models were used to produce simulations with three scenarios with different levels of prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. The changes in the antecedent precipitation were computed from the resulting monthly and seasonal means. in order to deal with models' suspected difficulties in simulating the short-term precipitation and lack of daily data| a statistical procedure was used to relate the short-term precipitation to the monthly means. The qualitative model results agree reasonably well| and when averaged over all models and the three scenarios| the change in the antecedent precipitation is predicted to be about 10% and the change in the short-term precipitation about 6%. Because the antecedent precipitation and the short-term precipitation contribute to the occurrence of landslides| the results of this study support the prediction of increased landslide frequency along the British Columbia south coast during the twenty-first century. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9648,2009,2,4,Climate change effects on trematodiases| with emphasis on zoonotic fascioliasis and schistosomiasis,The capacity of climatic conditions to modulate the extent and intensity of parasitism is well known since long ago. Concerning helminths| among the numerous environmental modifications giving rise to changes in infections| climate variables appear as those showing a greater influence| so that climate change may be expected to have an important impact on the diseases they cause. However| the confirmation of the impact of climate change on helminthiases has been reached very recently. Only shortly before| helminthiases were still noted as infectious diseases scarcely affected by climate change| when compared to diseases caused by microorganisms in general (viruses| bacteriae| protozoans). The aim of the present paper is to review the impact of climate change on helminthiases transmitted by snails| invertebrates which are pronouncedly affected by meteorological factors| by focusing on trematodiases. First| the knowledge on the effects of climate change on trematodiases in general is reviewed| including aspects such as influence of temperature on cercarial output| cercarial production variability in trematode species| influences of magnitude of cercarial production and snail host size| cercarial quality| duration of cercarial production increase and host mortality| influence of latitude| and global-warming-induced impact of trematodes. Secondly| important zoonotic diseases such as fascioliasis| schistosomiasis and cercarial dermatitis are analysed from the point of view of their relationships with meteorological factors. Emphasis is given to data which indicate that climate change influences the characteristics of these trematodiases in concrete areas where these diseases are emerging in recent years. The present review shows that trematodes| similarly as other helminths presenting larval stages living freely in the environment and/or larval stages parasitic in invertebrates easily affected by climate change as arthropods and molluscs as intermediate hosts| may be largely more susceptible to climate change impact than those helminths in whose life cycle such phases are absent or reduced to a minimum. Although helminths also appear to be affected by climate change| their main difference with microparasites lies on the usually longer life cycles of helminths| with longer generation times| slower population growth rates and longer time period needed for the response in the definitive host to become evident. Consequently| after a pronounced climate change in a local area| modifications in helminth populations need more time to be obvious or detectable than modifications in microparasite populations. Similarly| the relation of changes in a helminthiasis with climatic factor changes| as extreme events elapsed relatively long time ago| may be overlooked if not concretely searched for. All indicates that this phenomenon has been the reason for previous analyses to conclude that helminthiases do not constitute priority targets in climate change impact studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 843,2009,2,4,Climate change leads to decreasing bird migration distances,Global climate change has led to warmer winters in NW Europe| shortening the distance between suitable overwintering areas and the breeding areas of many bird species. Here we show that winter recovery distances have decreased over the past seven decades| for birds ringed during the breeding season in the Netherlands between 1932 and 2004. Of the 24 species included in the analysis| we found in 12 a significant decrease of the distance to the wintering site. Species from dry| open areas shortened their distance the most| species from wet| open areas the least| while woodland species fall in between the other two habitats. The decline in migration distance is likely due to climate change| as migration distances are negatively correlated with the Dutch temperatures in the winter of recovery. With a shorter migration distance| species should be better able to predict the onset of spring at their breeding sites and this could explain the stronger advancement of arrival date found in several short distance species relative to long-distance migrants. 9590,2009,3,2,Climate change mitigation: trade-offs between delay and strength of action required,Climate change mitigation via a reduction in the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is the principal requirement for reducing global warming| its impacts| and the degree of adaptation required. We present a simple conceptual model of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions to highlight the trade off between delay in commencing mitigation| and the strength of mitigation then required to meet specific atmospheric CO(2) stabilization targets. We calculate the effects of alternative emission profiles on atmospheric CO(2) and global temperature change over a millennial timescale using a simple coupled carbon cycle-climate model. For example| if it takes 50 years to transform the energy sector and the maximum rate at which emissions can be reduced is -2.5% year(-1)| delaying action until 2020 would lead to stabilization at 540 ppm. A further 20 year delay would result in a stabilization level of 730 ppm| and a delay until 2060 would mean stabilising at over 1|000 ppm. If stabilization targets are met through delayed action| combined with strong rates of mitigation| the emissions profiles result in transient peaks of atmospheric CO(2) (and potentially temperature) that exceed the stabilization targets. Stabilization at 450 ppm requires maximum mitigation rates of -3% to -5% year(-1)| and when delay exceeds 2020| transient peaks in excess of 550 ppm occur. Consequently tipping points for certain Earth system components may be transgressed. Avoiding dangerous climate change is more easily achievable if global mitigation action commences as soon as possible. Starting mitigation earlier is also more effective than acting more aggressively once mitigation has begun. 9943,2009,2,3,Climate Change over the Equatorial Indo-Pacific in Global Warming,The response of the equatorial Indian Ocean climate to global warming is investigated using model outputs submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. In all of the analyzed climate models| the SSTs in the western equatorial Indian Ocean warm more than the SSTs in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean under global warming; the mean SST gradient across the equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously positive to the west in a warmer twenty-first-century climate compared to the twentieth-century climate| and it is dynamically consistent with the anomalous westward zonal wind stress and anomalous positive zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient to the east at the equator. This change in the zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Indian Ocean is detected even in the lowest-emission scenario| and the size of the change is not necessarily larger in the higher-emission scenario. With respect to the change over the equatorial Pacific in climate projections| the subsurface central Pacific displays the strongest cooling or weakest warming around the thermocline depth compared to that above and below in all of the climate models| whereas changes in the zonal SST gradient and zonal wind stress around the equator are model dependent and not straightforward. 976,2009,3,3,Climate change policy and international trade: Policy considerations in the US,Significant recent attention| in both research and policy realms| has been given to the intersection of international trade and global climate change. Trade presents challenges to climate policy through carbon leakage and competitiveness concerns| but also potential solutions through the use of cooperative trade agreements| technology transfer| or carbon tariffs against recalcitrant nations. This study examines how trade may affect climate policy in the US and specifically examines the use of carbon tariffs as suggested by recent bills before the US Congress. We argue that even if Such actions are legal at the World Trade Organization| they are probably not necessary to protect industrial competitiveness in the traditional sense| could cover only a small proportion of total embodied emissions in trade| and may in fact be counterproductive at a moment when global cooperation is desperately needed. While political agreement may necessitate at least the threat of carbon tariffs| cooperative agreements such as global sectoral agreements| technology sharing| etc. could be more productive in the short term. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10320,2009,2,4,CLIMATE CHANGE| AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE AND GOVERNMENTAL SUPPORT,Global warming has contributed to a greater frequency of extreme weather events represented by heat waves| severe drought or floods. Agriculture is exposed to such events more than many other economic sectors. Agriculture is not only one of the most exposed sector to climate change triggered risks| but it also faces sever difficulties in addressing those risks. The paper aims to provide an argument for more intense governmental involvement in agricultural risk management| based upon several factual and theoretical reasons. There were identified some theoretical reasons (market failure| co-responsibility| economics) that support a better governmental intervention through an insurance scheme with governmental support. Romania's agricultural insurance market is in its infancy| but there are signals that competition could lower premiums below the technical level. Governmental measures| such as subsidized credits and damage scheme for natural hazards produced losses impacted significantly the agricultural insurance market. However| delayed payments lowered farmers' trust in insurance as a risk management option. 9769,2009,2,4,Climate change| conservation and management: an assessment of the peer-reviewed scientific journal literature,Recent reviews of the conservation literature indicate that significant biases exist in the published literature regarding the regions| ecosystems and species that have been examined by researchers. Despite the global threat of climatic change| similar biases may be occurring within the sub-discipline of climate-change ecology. Here we hope to foster critical thought and discussion by considering the directions taken by conservation researchers when addressing climate change. To form a quantitative basis for our perspective| we assessed 248 papers from the climate change literature that considered the conservation management of biodiversity and ecosystems. We found that roughly half of the studies considered climate change in isolation from other threatening processes. We also found that the majority of surveyed scientific publications were conducted in the temperate forests of Europe and North America. Regions such as Latin America that are rich in biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climate change were not well represented. We caution that such biases in research effort may be distracting our attention away from vulnerable regions| ecosystems and species. Specifically we suggest that the under-representation of research from regions low in adaptive capacity and rich in biodiversity requires international collaboration by those experienced in climate-change research| with researchers from less wealthy nations who are familiar with local issues| ecosystems and species. Furthermore| we caution that the propensity of ecologists to work in essentially unmodified ecosystems may fundamentally hamper our ability to make useful recommendations in a world that is experiencing significant global change. 834,2009,2,4,Climate change| population trends and groundwater in Africa,Global climate change is affecting Africa| as it is every other continent and region of the world. The absolute poverty of a large proportion of the continent's people renders them highly vulnerable to changes in climate. Mitigation of climate change is a global imperative. However| numerous other changes continue apace| notably population growth| natural resource degradation| and rural-urban migration. Probably 50% or more of the continent's population rely on groundwater. This paper explores the relative impacts of changes in climate| demography and land use/cover on groundwater resources and demands. It concludes that the climate change impacts are likely to be significant| though uncertain in direction and magnitude| while the direct and indirect impacts of demographic change on both water resources and water demand are not only known with far greater certainty| but are also likely to be much larger. The combined effects of urban population growth| rising food demands and energy costs| and consequent demand for fresh water represent real cause for alarm| and these dwarf the likely impacts of climate change on groundwater resources| at least over the first half of the 21st century. 9546,2009,4,3,Climate change-predicted shifts in the temperature regime of shallow groundwater produce rapid responses in ciliate communities,The ciliates living in a shallow groundwater system in southern Ontario| Canada were subjected to an in situ temperature manipulation over 14 months. Ciliates were collected from the bed surface of a small springbrook and from interstitial water collected at five depths beneath its surface. Mean temperature elevations established at each depth (-20| -40| -60| -80| and -100 cm) between the experiment's control and treatment blocks were 1.9| 3.5| 3.9| 3.8| and 3.6 degrees C| respectively| and were based on global warming projections for the region. In total| 160 species of ciliate belonging to 85 genera were identified. Overall| the treatment block had a higher density (6510 +/- 342 cells L(-1); +/- 1 SE) than the control (5797 +/- 237 cells L(-1))| but densities were both vertically and longitudinally variable. Control densities decreased with depth| whereas treatment densities were more equal among depths. Total species richness showed no significant difference between blocks when combining all sampling dates and depths| although species composition changed. The ciliate community was dominated by small (15-50 mu m)| followed by medium (50-200 mu m)| and only a few large-sized (> 200 mu m) species. Small ciliates contributed 82-97% of the total density. Small ciliates also contributed more to the treatment (94%) than the control block (88%). The most common ciliate feeding groups were bacterivores| omnivores| predators| and algae-diatom feeders| with bacterivores being most dominant (83-99% of the total numbers collected). Ordination analyses revealed that ciliate distribution was strongly correlated with groundwater temperature| although dissolved oxygen level| concentrations of ammonia and nitrate| and depth also appeared to be influential. Peak densities of many species occurred in either the control or treatment blocks| but not in both. The benefits of using ciliates as a proxy for higher| much longer-lived| eukaryotes in climate change studies are discussed. 10363,2009,2,4,CLIMATE CHANGES AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES: IMPACTS ON SUGARCANE PRODUCTIVITY IN TROPICAL SOUTHERN BRAZIL,The climatic projections for this century indicate the possibility of severe consequences for human beings| especially for agriculture where adverse effects to productivity of crops and to agribusiness as a whole may occur. An agrometeorological model was used to estimate sugarcane yield in tropical southern Brazil| based on future A1B climatic scenarios presented in the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report| in 2007. Sugarcane yield was evaluated for 2020| 2050| and 2080 considering the possible impacts caused by changes in temperature| precipitation| sunshine hours and CO(2) concentration in the atmosphere| as well as technological advances. Increasingly higher temperatures will cause an increase of the potential productivity (PP)| since this variable positively affects the efficiency of the photosynthetic processes of C(4) plants. Changes in solar radiation and rainfall| however| will have less impact. PP will increase by 15% in relation to the present condition in 2020| by 33% in 2050 and by 47% in 2080. Regarding the actual productivities (AP)| the increase observed in PP will compensate for the negative effect of the projected increase in water deficit. AP will increase by 12% in relation to the present condition in 2020| by 32% in 2050 and by 47% in 2080. The increase in sugarcane productivity resulting from the projected scenarios will have important impacts on the sugarcane sector. 10379,2009,4,1,CLIMATE CHANGES AND THE ACTIONS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION,According to the meetings of the experts in the Intergovernmental Group on climate evolution (IGCE) - a unit that should come up with a scientific consensus on this subject - the human origin of present-day climate changes is estimated at 90%. On the basis of these studies| one may say that our civilization passes through a crisis situation when climate warming is the main issue and we should take responsibility for it. In four sections| the present article discusses the main issues of climate change and the main international political context regarding the global climate changes. The author also focuses on the issues of the fight against climate changes as they appear in the documents of the European Union. 10004,2009,5,3,Climate changes caused by degassing of sediments during the emplacement of large igneous provinces,Most mass extinctions during the last 500 m.y. coincide with eruptions of large igneous provinces (LIPs). The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction was synchronous with the Deccan flood volcanism| the Permian-Triassic extinction with the eruption of the enormous Siberian traps| and the end-Guadalupian extinction with the Emeishan volcanic province. The causal link remains disputed| however| and many LIPs apparently had no significant impact on the biosphere. Here we show that a key control on the destructive consequences of LIP emplacement is the type of sedimentary rock in basins beneath the flood basalts. Contact metamorphism around intrusions in dolomite| evaporite| coal| or organic-rich shale generates large quantities of greenhouse and toxic gases (CO(2)| CH(4)| SO(2))| which subsequently vent to the atmosphere and cause global warming and mass extinctions. The release of sediment-derived gases had a far greater impact on the environment than the emission of magmatic gases. 9317,2009,2,4,Climate dependence of heterotrophic soil respiration from a soil-translocation experiment along a 3000 m tropical forest altitudinal gradient,Tropical ecosystems play a key role in the global carbon cycle| but their response to global warming is not well understood. Altitudinal gradients offer the unique possibility of undertaking in situ experimental studies of the influence of alterations in climate on the carbon (C) cycle. In a soil-translocation experiment we took replicate soil cores at 3030 m| 1500 m| 1000 m and 200 m above sea level along an altitudinal gradient in tropical forest in Peru| and exchanged (i.e. translocated) them among these sites to observe the influence of altered climatic conditions on the decomposition of soil organic matter under natural field conditions. Soil respiration rates of the translocated soil cores and adjacent undisturbed soils were measured twice a month from April 2007 to October 2007. The temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration in each core was examined using a Lloyd & Taylor function and a simple modified third-order polynomial fit. Calculated Q(10) values decreased with decreasing altitude using both mathematical functions (2.53-1.24 according to the Lloyd & Taylor function| and 2.56-0.63 using the polynomial fit). Soil organic C-stocks increased markedly and linearly with altitude| but surprisingly the average total soil respiration rate did not vary significantly with altitude along the transect (3.98-4.31 mu mol CO(2) m-2 s-1). This implies an increase with elevation of absolute C allocation to below-ground allocation. 876,2009,3,2,Climate forcing by the on-road transportation and power generation sectors,The on-road transportation (ORT) and power generation (PG) sectors are major contributors to carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions and a host of short-lived radiatively-active air pollutants| including tropospheric ozone and fine aerosol particles| that exert complex influences on global climate. Effective mitigation of global climate change necessitates action in these sectors for which technology change options exist or are being developed. Most assessments of possible energy change options to date have neglected non-CO(2) air pollutant impacts on radiative forcing (RF). In a multi-pollutant approach| we apply a global atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify the total RF from the global and United States (U.S.) ORT and PG sectors. We assess the RF for 2 time horizons: 20- and 100-year that are relevant for understanding near-term and longer-term impacts of climate change| respectively. ORT is a key target sector to mitigate global climate change because the net non-CO(2) RF is positive and acts to enhance considerably the CO(2) warming impacts. We perform further sensitivity studies to assess the RF impacts of a potential major technology shift that would reduce ORT emissions by 50% with the replacement energy supplied either by a clean zero-emissions source (S1) or by the PG sector| which results in an estimated 20% penalty increase in emissions from this sector (S2). We examine cases where the technology shift is applied globally and in the U.S. only. The resultant RF relative to the present day control is negative (cooling) in all cases for both S1 and S2 scenarios| global and U.S. emissions| and 20- and 100-year time horizons. The net non-CO(2) RF is always important relative to the CO(2) RF and outweighs the CO(2) RF response in the S2 scenario for both time horizons. Assessment of the full impacts of technology and policy strategies designed to mitigate global climate change must consider the climate effects of ozone and fine aerosol particles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9874,2009,3,3,Climate impacts of geoengineering marine stratocumulus clouds,Theoretical potential geoengineering solutions to the global warming problem have recently been proposed. Here| we present an idealized study of the climate response to deliberately seeding large-scale stratocumulus cloud decks in the North Pacific| South Pacific| and South Atlantic| thereby inducing cooling via aerosol indirect effects. Atmosphere-only| atmosphere/mixed-layer ocean| and fully coupled atmosphere/ocean versions of the Met Office Hadley Centre model are used to investigate the radiative forcing| climate efficacy| and regional response of temperature| precipitation| and net primary productivity to such geoengineering. The radiative forcing simulations indicate that| for our parameterization of aerosol indirect effects| up to 35% of the radiative forcing due to current levels of greenhouse gases could be offset by stratocumulus modification. Equilibrium simulations with the atmosphere/mixed-layer ocean model| wherein each of the three stratocumulus sheets is modified in turn| reveal that the most efficient cooling per unit radiative forcing occurs when the South Pacific stratocumulus sheet is modified. Transient coupled model simulations suggest that geoengineering all three stratocumulus areas delays the simulated global warming by about 25 years. These simulations also indicate that| while some areas experience increases in precipitation and net primary productivity| sharp decreases are simulated in South America| with particularly detrimental impacts on the Amazon rain forest. These results show that| while some areas benefit from geoengineering| there are significant areas where the response could be very detrimental with implications for the practical applicability of such a scheme. 10150,2009,5,3,Climate in the Monte Desert: Past trends| present conditions| and future projections,This paper documents the main features of climate and climate variability across the Monte Desert for the Last Glacial Maximum| the Glacial-Interglacial transition| and the Holocene on the basis of proxy records and for the 20th century using instrumental observations. The climate in the Monte is determined by interactions between regional physiography and atmospheric circulation in the 25-45 degrees S sectors of South America. Although arid and semi-arid conditions prevail across the Monte| its large latitudinal extent and complex topography introduce many particularities at local scales. Paleoclimatic records and model simulations of past climates suggest significant variations in the atmospheric circulation| temperature and rainfall patterns since the Last Glacial Maximum. High-resolution proxy records east of the Andes support the existence of complex climatic patterns with similar temperature changes across the whole region but opposite precipitation variations between subtropical and mid-latitude sectors in the Monte during the past millennium. The present-day climate is depicted in terms of the space and time variability of the near-surface temperature| rainfall and tropospheric wind patterns. Uneven temperature trends over the Monte were recorded for two separate (1920-44 and 1977-2001) global warming periods in the 20th century. Additional warming evidence in the region is provided by extreme temperature records. The non-homogeneous regional pattern of precipitation shows a positive long-term increase between 30 and 40 degrees S during the interval 1985-2001. Ensemble of climate experiments accomplished with general circulation models provide the most likely changes in temperature and rainfall to occur by the end of this century in relation to present climate. Temperature increases| larger in summer than in winter| will be concurrent with more abundant precipitations in summer| but almost no changes or even small reductions in winter across the Monte. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9571,2009,2,3,Climate Response of the Equatorial Pacific to Global Warming,The climate response of the equatorial Pacific to increased greenhouse gases is investigated using numerical experiments from 11 climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report. Multimodel mean climate responses to CO(2) doubling are identified and related to changes in the heat budget of the surface layer. Weaker ocean surface currents driven by a slowing down of the Walker circulation reduce ocean dynamical cooling throughout the equatorial Pacific. The combined anomalous ocean dynamical plus radiative heating from CO(2) is balanced by different processes in the western and eastern basins: Cloud cover feedbacks and evaporation balance the heating over the warm pool| while increased cooling by ocean vertical heat transport balances the warming over the cold tongue. This increased cooling by vertical ocean heat transport arises from increased near-surface thermal stratification| despite a reduction in vertical velocity. The stratification response is found to be a permanent feature of the equilibrium climate potentially linked to both thermodynamical and dynamical changes within the equatorial Pacific. Briefly stated| ocean dynamical changes act to reduce (enhance) the net heating in the east (west). This explains why the models simulate enhanced equatorial warming| rather than El Nino-like warming| in response to a weaker Walker circulation. To conclude| the implications for detecting these signals in the modern observational record are discussed. 9747,2009,2,3,Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries,Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future| informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-climate analysis framework| we assess the poverty impacts of climate volatility for seven socio-economic groups in 16 developing countries. We find that extremes under present climate volatility increase poverty across our developing country sample-particularly in Bangladesh| Mexico| Indonesia| and Africa-with urban wage earners the most vulnerable group. We also find that global warming exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations. 10025,2009,2,4,Climate warming and reproduction in Chinese alligators,The Chinese alligator Alligator sinensis is a critically endangered species endemic to China| and one of the most endangered crocodilian species in the world. Like many other reptiles| important aspects of alligator biology such as foraging| timing of hibernation| breeding and the sex ratio of offspring are all affected by temperature variation. We examined the effects of long-term temperature change on oviposition dates and clutch sizes of the Chinese alligator in a semi-natural facility in southern China. Our study focused on two captive generations including an old breeding generation captured from the wild and a generation composed of their F1 offspring. Median oviposition date shifted to earlier in the year and mean clutch size was larger for both generations as the monthly mean air temperature in April increased over the 19 years of data collection. We observed a mean advance in oviposition date of 10 days for the old breeding generation from 1987 to 2005 and 8 days for both generations from 1991 to 2005. Correspondingly| clutch sizes for the two generations also increased during this period. There were no differences in median oviposition dates and clutch sizes between the two generations from 1991 to 2005. Our results suggest that Chinese alligators have responded to increasing global temperatures. Our findings also suggest that recent increasing global temperatures have the potential to have a substantial effect on Chinese alligator populations in the wild| thus prompting an urgent need for field monitoring of the effects of global warming on this endangered alligator species. 10177,2009,2,4,Climate warming and the evolution of morphotypes in a reptile,Climate warming is known to have effects on population dynamics through variations in survival| fecundity and density. However| the impacts of climate change on population composition are still poorly documented. Morphotypes are powerful markers to track changes in population composition. In the common lizard| Lacerta vivipara| individuals display two types of dorsal patterns: reticulated (R individuals) and linear (L individuals). We examined how local warming affected intrapopulation frequencies of these morphotypes across 11 years. We observed changes in morph frequency of dorsal patterns across years| paralleling the rise of spring temperatures. The proportion of R individuals increased with June temperatures in juveniles| yearlings| and adult males and females. Three mechanisms could explain these changes: phenotypic plasticity| microevolution and/or dispersal between populations. We investigated the ontogenetic determinism| fitness and recruitment rates associated with dorsal morphotypes. Dorsal pattern ontogeny showed temperature dependence but this relationship was not associated with the warming trend during this study. We found variation by morphotype in survival and clutch size| but these factors did not explain R frequency increases. Among all the parameters considered in this study| only a decrease of immigration| which was more pronounced in the L morphotype| could explain the change in population composition. To our knowledge| this provides the first evidence of the impact of climate warming on population composition due to its effects on immigration. 9358,2009,2,4,Climate warming effects on the Olea europaea-Bactrocera oleae system in Mediterranean islands: Sardinia as an example,Global warming will affect all species but in largely unknown ways| with certain regions such as the Mediterranean Basin and its major islands including Sardinia being particularly vulnerable to desertification. Olive (Olea europaea) is of eco-social importance in the Mediterranean where it was domesticated. This drought-resistant crop and its major pest| the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae)| have tight biological links that make them a suitable model system for climate change studies in the Mediterranean. Here a physiologically based weather-driven demographic model of olive and olive fly is used to analyze in detail this plant-pest system in Sardinia under observed weather (10 years of daily data from 48 locations)| three climate warming scenarios (increases of 1| 2 and 3 degrees C in average daily temperature)| and a 105-year climate model scenario for the Alghero location (e.g. 1951-2055). grass gis is used to map model predictions of olive bloom dates and yield| total season-long olive fly pupae| and percent fruit attacked by the fly. Island wide simulation data are summarized using multivariate regression. Model calibration with field bloom date data were performed to increase simulation accuracy of olive flowering predictions under climate change. As climate warms| the range of olive is predicted to expand to higher altitudes and consolidate elsewhere| especially in coastal areas. The range of olive fly will extend into previously unfavorable cold areas| but will contract in warm inland lowlands where temperatures approach its upper thermal limits. Consequently| many areas of current high risk are predicted to have decreased risk of fly damage with climate warming. Simulation using a 105-year climate model scenario for Alghero| Sardinia predicts changes in the olive-olive fly system expected to occur if climate continued to warm at the low rate observed during in the past half century. 9390,2009,2,2,Climate| carbon cycling| and deep-ocean ecosystems,Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon| which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximate to 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures| attributed to anthropogenic influence| have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently| unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at > 4|000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However| the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate. 9669,2009,2,2,Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 degrees C global warming,Climatic changes over the Mediterranean basin in 2031-2060| when a 2 degrees C global warming is most likely to occur| are investigated with the HadCM3 global circulation model and their impacts on human activities and natural ecosystem are assessed. Precipitation and surface temperature changes are examined through mean and extreme values analysis| under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. Confidence in results is obtained via bootstrapping. Over the land areas| the warming is larger than the global average. The rate of warming is found to be around 2 degrees C in spring and winter| while it reaches 4 degrees C in summer. An additional month of summer days is expected| along with 2-4 weeks of tropical nights. Increase in hearwave days and decrease in frost nights are expected to be a month inland. In the northern part of the basin the widespread drop in summer rainfall is partially compensated by a winter precipitation increase. One to 3 weeks of additional dry days lead to a dry season lengthened by a week and shifted toward spring in the south of France and inland Algeria| and autumn elsewhere. In central Mediterranean droughts are extended by a month| starting a week earlier and ending 3 weeks later. The impacts of these climatic changes on human activities such as agriculture| energy| tourism and natural ecosystems (forest fires) are also assessed. Regarding agriculture| crops whose growing cycle occurs mostly in autumn and winter show no changes or even an increase in yield. In contrast| summer crops show a remarkable decrease of yield. This different pattern is attributed to a lengthier drought period during summer and to an increased rainfall in winter and autumn. Regarding forest fire risk| an additional month of risk is expected over a great part of the basin. Energy demand levels are expected to fall significantly during a warmer winter period inland| whereas they seem to substantially increase nearly everywhere during summer. Extremely high summer temperatures in the Mediterranean| coupled with improved climate conditions in northern Europe| may lead to a gradual decrease in summer tourism in the Mediterranean| but an increase in spring and autumn. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9662,2009,2,3,Climatic constraints on maximum levels of human metabolic activity and their relation to human evolution and global change,No matter what humans do| their levels of metabolic activity are linked to the climatic conditions of the land surface. On the one hand| the productivity of the terrestrial biosphere provides the source of chemical free energy to drive human metabolic activity. On the other hand| human metabolic activity results in the generation of heat within the body. The release of that heat to the surrounding environment is potentially constrained by the climatic conditions at the land surface. Both of these factors are intimately linked to climate: Climatic constraints act upon the productivity of the terrestrial biosphere and thereby the source of free energy| and the climatic conditions near the surface constrain the loss of heat from the human body to its surrounding environment. These two constraints are associated with a fundamental trade-off| which should result in a distinct maximum in possible levels of human metabolic activity for certain climatic conditions. For present-day conditions| tropical regions are highly productive and provide a high supply rate of free energy. But the tropics are also generally warm and humid| resulting in a low ability to loose heat| especially during daylight. Contrary| polar regions are much less productive| but allow for much higher levels of heat loss to the environment. This trade-off should therefore result in an optimum latitude (and altitude) at which the climatic environment allows humans to be metabolically most active and perform maximum levels of physical work. Both of these constraints are affected by the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide pCO (2)| but in contrary ways| so that I further hypothesize that an optimum concentration of pCO (2) exists and that the optimum latitude shifts with pCO (2). I evaluate these three hypotheses with model simulations of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity which includes expressions for the two constraints on maximum possible levels of human metabolic activity. This model is used to perform model simulations for the present-day and sensitivity experiments to different levels of pCO (2). The model simulations support the three hypotheses and quantify the conditions under which these apply. Although the quantification of these constraints on human metabolic activity is grossly simplified in the approach taken here| the predictions following from this approach are consistent with the geographic locations of where higher civilizations first emerged. Applied to past climatic changes| this perspective can explain why major evolutionary events in human evolutionary history took place at times of global cooling. I conclude that the quantification of these constraints on human metabolic activity is a meaningful and quantitative measure of the "human habitability" of the Earth's climate. When anthropogenic climate change is viewed from this perspective| an important implication is that global warming is likely to lead to environmental conditions less suitable for human metabolic activity in their natural environment (and for large mammals in general) due to a lower ability to loose heat. 1,2009,2,4,CLIMATIC EFFECTS ON THE PHENOLOGY OF GEOPHYTES,Nowadays| the scientific and social significance of the research of climatic effects has become outstanding. In order to be able to predict the ecological effects of the global climate change| it is necessary to study monitoring databases of the past and explore connections. For the case study mentioned in the title| historical weather data series from the Hungarian Meteorological Service and Szaniszlo Priszter's monitoring data on the phenology of geophytes have been used. These data describe on which days the observed geophytes budded| were blooming and withered. In our research we have found that the classification of the observed years according to phenological events and the classification of those according to the frequency distribution of meteorological parameters show similar patterns| and the one variable group is suitable for explaining the pattern shown by the other one. Furthermore| our important result is that the dates of all three observed phenophases correlate significantly with the average of the daily temperature fluctuation in the given period. The second most often significant parameter is the number of frosty days| this also seem to be determinant for all phenophases. Usual approaches based on the temperature sum and the average temperature don't seem to be really important in this respect. According to the results of the research| it has turned out that the phenology of geophytes can be well modelled with the linear combination of suitable meteorological parameters 9424,2009,3,2,CO(2) and non-CO(2) radiative forcings in climate projections for twenty-first century mitigation scenarios,Climate is simulated for reference and mitigation emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models using the Bern2.5CC carbon cycle-climate model. Mitigation options encompass all major radiative forcing agents. Temperature change is attributed to forcings using an impulse-response substitute of Bern2.5CC. The contribution of CO(2) to global warming increases over the century in all scenarios. Non-CO(2) mitigation measures add to the abatement of global warming. The share of mitigation carried by CO(2)| however| increases when radiative forcing targets are lowered| and increases after 2000 in all mitigation scenarios. Thus| non-CO(2) mitigation is limited and net CO(2) emissions must eventually subside. Mitigation rapidly reduces the sulfate aerosol loading and associated cooling| partly masking Greenhouse Gas mitigation over the coming decades. A profound effect of mitigation on CO(2) concentration| radiative forcing| temperatures and the rate of climate change emerges in the second half of the century. 933,2009,3,2,CO(2) Capture and Storage with Leakage in an Energy-Climate Model,Geological CO(2) capture and storage (CCS) is among the main near-term contenders for addressing the problem of global climate change. Even in a baseline scenario| with no comprehensive international climate policy| a moderate level of CCS technology is expected to be deployed| given the economic benefits associated with enhanced oil and gas recovery. With stringent climate change control| CCS technologies will probably be installed on an industrial scale. Geologically stored CO(2)| however| may leak back to the atmosphere| which could render CCS ineffective as climate change reduction option. This article presents a long-term energy scenario study for Europe| in which we assess the significance for climate policy making of leakage of CO(2) artificially stored in underground geological formations. A detailed sensitivity analysis is performed for the CO(2) leakage rate with the bottom-up energy systems model MARKAL| enriched for this purpose with a large set of CO(2) capture technologies (in the power sector| industry| and for the production of hydrogen) and storage options (among which enhanced oil and gas recovery| enhanced coal bed methane recovery| depleted fossil fuel fields| and aquifers). Through a series of model runs| we confirm that a leakage rate of 0.1%/year seems acceptable for CCS to constitute a meaningful climate change mitigation option| whereas one of 1%/year is not. CCS is essentially no option to achieve CO(2) emission reductions when the leakage rate is as high as 1%/year| so more reductions need to be achieved through the use of renewables or nuclear power| or in sectors like industry and transport. We calculate that under strict climate control policy| the cumulative captured and geologically stored CO(2) by 2100 in the electricity sector| when the leakage rate is 0.1%/year| amounts to about 45|000 MtCO(2). Only a little over 10|000 MtCO(2) cumulative power-generation-related emissions are captured and stored underground by the end of the century when the leakage rate is 1%/year. Overall marginal CO(2) abatement costs increase from a few a|not sign/tCO(2) today to well over 150 a|not sign/tCO(2) in 2100| under an atmospheric CO(2) concentration constraint of 550 ppmv. Carbon costs in 2100 turn out to be about 40 a|not sign/tCO(2) higher when the annual leakage rate is 1%/year in comparison to when there is no CO(2) leakage. Irrespective of whether CCS deployment is affected by gradual CO(2) seepage| the annual welfare loss in Europe induced by the implementation of policies preventing "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" (under our assumption| implying a climate stabilisation target of 550 ppmv CO(2) concentration) remains below 0.5% of GDP during the entire century. 9502,2009,4,4,CO(2) Detection Using Microstructured Chalcogenide Fibers,In this work| detection in the mid-infrared (mid-IR) of carbon dioxide| so called "greenhouse" gas| using Fiber Evanescent Wave Spectroscopy (FEWS) technique is investigated. Since each pollutant gas shows a characteristic optical absorption spectrum in the mid-infrared| it is possible to detect selectively and quantitatively the presence of gases in a given environment by analysing mid-IR spectra. The main infrared signature of carbon dioxide gas consist in a double absorption peak located at 4.26 mu m. Chalcogenide optical fibres| transmitting light in the 1-6 mu m range| are well-adapted for CO(2) analysis. Thus| tapered and microstructured chalcogenide fibers have especially been designed for CO(2) detection. They present low optical losses in the spectral region of the CO(2) absorption band. The fabrication of tapered and microstructured fibers is reported. Then| using a tapered fiber the detection limit Of CO(2) is around 20 vol.%. On the other hand| for the first time to our knowledge| the detection of gas in the mid-infrared is demonstrated with a chalcogenide microstructured fiber. 9652,2009,3,4,CO(2) emissions| research and technology transfer in China,Although the economy of China has grown very strongly over the last few decades| this spectacular performance has come at the expense of rapid environmental deterioration. Amidst animated debate on the issue of global warming| this study attempts to explore the determinants Of CO(2) emissions in China using aggregate data for more than half a century. Adopting an analytical framework that combines the environmental literature with modem endogenous growth theories| the results indicate that CO(2) emissions in China are negatively related to research intensity| technology transfer and the absorptive capacity of the economy to assimilate foreign technology. Our findings also indicate that more energy use| higher income and greater trade openness tend to cause more CO(2) emissions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10345,2009,3,3,CO(2) mitigation with thermal energy storage,Thermal Energy Storage (TES) provides us with a flexible heating and/or cooling tool to combat global warming through conserving energy while utilising natural renewable energy resources. This paper aims to show how CO(2) emissions can be decreased by utilising different TES concepts in Turkey. The first project is for the heating and cooling of a supermarket using Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) in Mersin. With a 60% higher Coefficient of Performance (COP)| the yearly CO(2) emissions reduction contribution of this project is 113 tonnes. The second project concerns ATES for the heating and cooling of a greenhouse in Adana. The greenhouse was used as a 'solar collector' and source of energy for the ATES system. No fossil fuels were consumed for heating the greenhouse and cooling was made possible with the ATES system. Energy conservation amounted to 68% and CO(2) emissions were reduced by 26 tonnes/year. The third one is a pilot project using TES in microencapsulated phase change materials in a test cabin in Adana with a floor area of 4 m(2). By using a 3.5 kg Phase Change Material (PCM) together with insulation panels in the test cabin| 7% cooling energy and 28% heating energy can be conserved. The corresponding CO(2) emissions reduction would be 0.5 tonnes/year. 9383,2009,3,3,CO(2) reforming into fuel using TiO(2) photocatalyst and gas separation membrane,It was previously reported that CO(2) could be reformed into CO| CH(4)| etc.| which can be used as fuels| by TiO(2) as the photocatalyst and under UV radiation. If this technique could be applied practically| a carbon circulation system would then be able to be constructed by reforming CO(2) from combustion| using solar energy| to fuel| which would solve the problem of global warming and fossil fuels depletion all together. However| the technology is not yet practicable as the fuel concentration of products is too low. To increase the concentration and improve Cot reforming performance on TiO(2)| a membrane reactor composed of TiO(2) and gas separation membrane prepared by sol-gel and dip-coating method has been built. Study on the factors influencing membrane performance| e.g. rising speed in the dip-coating process| has been carried out with the reactor. The results of the study are reported in this paper. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9827,2009,3,4,CO(2) source-sink matching in the lower 48 United States| with examples from the Texas Gulf Coast and Permian Basin,Documenting geographic distribution and spatial linkages between CO(2) sources and potential sinks in areas with significant levels of CO(2) emissions is important when considering carbon-management strategies such as geologic sequestration or enhanced oil recovery (EOR). For example| the US Gulf Coast overlies a thick succession (> 6|000 m [> 20|000 ft]) of highly porous and permeable sandstone formations separated by thick| regionally extensive shale aquitards. The Gulf Coast and Permian Basin also have a large potential for EOR| in which CO(2) injected into suitable oil reservoirs could be followed by long-term storage of CO(2) in nonproductive formations below reservoir intervals. For example| > 6 billion barrels (Bbbl) of oil from 182 large reservoirs is technically recoverable in the Permian Basin as a result of miscible-CO(2) flooding(.) The Gulf Coast also contains an additional 4.5 Bbbl of oil that could be produced by using miscible CO(2). Although the CO(2) pipeline infrastructure is well-developed in the Permian Basin| east Texas and the Texas Gulf Coast may have a greater long-term potential for deep| permanent storage of CO(2) because of thick brine-bearing formations near both major subsurface and point sources of CO(2). 9426,2009,3,4,CO(2)| CH(4) AND N(2)O FLUXES IN AN ULTISOL TREATED WITH SEWAGE SLUDGE AND CULTIVATED WITH CASTOR BEAN,Organic residue application into soil alter the emission of gases to atmosphere and CO(2)| CH(4)| N(2)O may contribute to increase the greenhouse effect. This experiment was carried out in a restoration area on a dystrophic Ultisol (PVAd) to quantify greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soil under castor bean cultivation| treated with sewage sludge (SS) or mineral fertilizer. The following treatments were tested: control without N; FertMin mineral fertilizer; SS5 = 5 t ha(-1) SS (37.5 kg ha(-1) N); SS10 = 10 t ha(-1) SS (75 kg ha(-1) N); and SS20 = 20 t ha(-1) SS (150 kg ha(-1) N). The amount of sludge was based on the recommended rate of N for castor bean (75 kg ha(-1))| the N level of SS and the mineralization fraction of N from SS. Soil gas emission was measured for 21 days. Sewage sludge and mineral fertilizers altered the CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes. Soil moisture had no effect on GHG emissions and the gas fluxes was statistically equivalent after the application of FertMin and of 5 t ha(-1) SS. The application of the entire crop N requirement in the form of SS practically doubled the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and the C equivalent emissions in comparison with FertMin treatments. 836,2009,3,2,Coal and energy security for India: Role of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) capture and storage (CCS),Coal is the abundant domestic energy resource in India and is projected to remain so in future under a business-as-usual scenario. Using domestic coal mitigates national energy security risks. However coal use exacerbates global climate change. Under a strict climate change regime| coal use is projected to decline in future. However this would increase imports of energy sources like natural gas (NG) and nuclear and consequent energy security risks for India. The paper shows that carbon dioxide (CO(2)) capture and storage (CCS) can mitigate CO(2) emissions from coal-based large point source (LPS) clusters and therefore would play a key role in mitigating both energy security risks for India and global climate change risks. This paper estimates future CO(2) emission projections from LPS in India| identifies the potential CO(2) storage types at aggregate level and matches the two into the future using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Local model) with a Geographical Information System (GIS) interface. The paper argues that clustering LPS that are close to potential storage sites could provide reasonable economic opportunities for CCS in future if storage sites of different types are further explored and found to have adequate capacity. The paper also indicates possible LPS locations to utilize CCS opportunities economically in future| especially since India is projected to add over 220|000 MW of thermal power generation capacity by 2030. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10356,2009,4,4,Coal and fuel burning effects on the atmosphere as mediated by the atmospheric electric field and galactic cosmic rays flux,Emissions into the atmosphere of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and particulate matter resulting from fossil fuel burning are considered to be the main anthropogenic forcing on the global climate. We show here that the external cyclic influences of cosmic origin that modulate the earth's climate may either reinforce or mitigate the 'local' terrestrial forcings. Among the external influences is cosmic radiation| whose intensity shows a cyclic variation of 11 years| accompanying the 11-year cycle of solar activity. We put forward a mechanism to explain how the emission of particulate matter into the atmosphere might influence global lightning activity. With respect to global lightning activity| we show why| during the 11-year cycle| the influence of an increase in particulate matter concentration in the atmosphere may be negligible in some years| while it will be reinforced in other years| depending on the place of the years in the cycle. We also remark that the effect on global warming of fossil fuel burning is also modulated by the cosmic ray flux| whose influence is mediated by the variation that it promotes on the cloud cover.
9365,2009,2,4,Cold hardiness and overwintering survival of the cabbage seedpod weevil| Ceutorhynchus obstrictus,The cabbage seedpod weevil| Ceutorhynchus obstrictus (Marsham) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)| is a serious pest of brassicaceous crops in temperate regions and a chronic member of the pest complex that attacks canola in Canada. We conducted several laboratory and field experiments to quantify winter survival and its role in the population dynamics of this insect. We estimated the supercooling point of the weevil at -7 degrees C and its survival over 8 weeks decreased significantly at -5 degrees C relative to 5 degrees C| but extending the overwintering period at 5 degrees C to 18.5 weeks had no effect on mortality. Cumulative sub-freezing degrees estimated from air temperature| and especially from soil temperature| were highly correlated with weevil survival. Our linear regression model predicted poor survival of the weevils in typical winters in northern Alberta. Our results indicate that if milder winters prevail| as predicted by global warming| there is potential for the weevils to establish and become a serious pest in northern canola-growing regions of Canada. 9432,2009,3,3,Collection| transfer and transport of waste: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contribution,The collection| transfer and transport of waste are basic activities of waste management systems all over the world. These activities all use energy and fuels| primarily of fossil origin. Electricity and fuel consumptions of the individual processes were reviewed and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions were quantified. The emission factors were assigned a global warming potential (GWP) and aggregated into global warming factors (GWFs)| which express the potential contribution to global warming from collection| transport and transfer of 1 tonne of wet waste. Six examples involving collection| transfer and transport of waste were assessed in terms of GHG emissions| including both provision and use of energy. (GHG emissions related to production| maintenance and disposal of vehicles| equipment| infrastructure and buildings were excluded.) The estimated GWFs varied from 9.4 to 368 kg CO(2)-equivalent (kg CO(2)-eq.) per tonne of waste| depending on method of collection| capacity and choice of transport equipment| and travel distances. The GHG emissions can be reduced primarily by avoiding transport of waste in private cars and by optimization of long distance transport| for example| considering transport by rail and waterways. 10342,2009,3,3,Combating global warming via non-fossil fuel energy options,Non-fossil fuel energy options can help reduce or eliminate the emissions of greenhouse gases and are needed to combat climate change. Three distinct ways in which non-fossil fuel options can be used in society are examined here: the capture/production of non-fossil fuel energy sources| their conversion into appropriate energy carriers and increased efficiency throughout the life cycle. Non-fossil fuel energy sources are insufficient to avoid global warming in that they are not necessarily readily utilisable in their natural forms. Hydrogen energy systems are needed to facilitate the use of non-fossil fuels by converting them to two main classes of energy carriers: hydrogen (and hydrogen-derived fuels) and electricity. High efficiency is needed to allow the greatest benefits to be attained from energy options in terms of climate change and other factors. A case study is considered involving the production of hydrogen from non-fossil energy sources via thermochemical water decomposition. Thermochemical water decomposition provides a realistic future non-fossil fuel energy option| which can be driven by non-fossil energy sources (particularly nuclear or solar energy) and help combat global warming. 10243,2009,2,4,Combined effects of chemical and temperature stress on Chironomus riparius populations with differing genetic variability,Exposure to pollutants under multiple environmental stressors (e.g.| climate change and global warming) and the genetic diversity of populations are suspected to have serious impacts on populations and ecosystems but have only rarely been analysed. In the present study| we investigated the effects of the biocide tributyltin (TBT) within a temperature gradient (17| 20 and 23 degrees C) on life history parameters of a genetically diverse (GEN+) and a highly inbred population (GEN-) of the midge Chironomus riparius. While endpoints| mortality and reproduction parameters were considered| the population growth rate as an integrative endpoint was determined. We found severe effects for GEN-| indicating that populations with lower genetic diversity are more endangered by combined stressors such as increasing temperature and chemical pollution compared to genetically diverse populations. 891,2009,2,4,Combined effects of drought and density on body and antler size of male Iberian red deer Cervus elaphus hispanicus: climate change implications,Hunting management of red deer Cervus elaphus populations may tend to increase population densities to maximise annual yield. Sonic Studies have shown that density and low winter temperatures affect red deer populations in central and northern Europe| but these results cannot be extrapolated to red deer Populations in the Mediterranean region where the limiting season is summer instead of winter. The two regions are predicted to experience different climate change effects: while rainfall may increase ill northern latitudes| heavier droughts are expected in the Mediterranean region. We studied red deer Populations of different densities on 19 hunting estates in Southern Spain during two years with contrasting precipitation levels. Our ann Was to quantify the combined effects of drought and population density on the development of stags| which is the main economic objective Of hunting management in these areas. We found that drought affected body and antler size negatively| and that the effects were more severe ill populations of high density. On the basis Of Our results| we recommend reducing the current densities of red deer in Southern Spain to maintain the economic and environmental sustainability of hunting exploitation in the context of global climate change. 10224,2009,2,4,COMBINED EFFECTS OF EARTHWORMS AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS ON SUCCESSIONAL CHANGES OF LITTER NEMATODE COMMUNITY,Earthworm functioning and temperature regime are among the most important biotic and abiotic factors of soil environment; their combined action on soil nematode activities has not been studied. In a 4-month laboratory experiment| effects of the epigeic earthworm Dendrobaena octaedra on a succession of nematode community in litter of a mid-European birch/oak forest were tested in the gradient of an increase of diurnal temperature fluctuations from 0 degrees C (constant 15 degrees C; T(15)) to 10 degrees C (daily range between 10 degrees and 20 degrees C; T(10-20)) and 20 degrees C (daily range between 5 degrees and 25 degrees C; T(5-25)). Earthworm and temperature effects were measured as differences in nematode community respiration rates between the experimental treatments. Nematode respiration rates were calculated on the basis of body size/weight/O(2) consumption relationships for individual species. Nematode community was dominated by bacterial feeders and changed in a characteristic successional pattern which| however| was markedly modified by temperature regime and earthworm activities. Dominant nematode taxa revealed specific patterns of temporal dynamics in connection with their responses to temperature and earthworm presence. Thus| metabolic activity of Plectus acuminatus was strongly reduced by D. octaedra but did not react to variation of temperature regime. In contrast| activity of Panagrolaimus sp. significantly responded to temperature but not to earthworm presence| whereas Pl. thornei reacted to both factors separately and in combination. Ceratoplectus armatus was stronger affected by earthworm presence then by temperature; Tylocephalus auriculatus showed the opposite pattern. The variety of responses may explain the coexistence of several taxonomically related (Plectidae) and trophically similar species within the dominant group. Both earthworm presence and increase of the range of diurnal temperature fluctuations strongly affected the net of interspecific correlations within the nematode community. Earthworms strongly reduced total activities of nematode community at any temperature regime. T(15) regime showed markedly lower level of cumulative nematode respiration than both fluctuating regimes| irrespective of earthworm presence. In conclusion| combined effects of earthworms and temperature regime drastically changed patterns of relationships within the nematode litter community. The results of the experiments may have implications for the perspectives of global warming events at the study site: it is suggested that the ultimate vector of the changes in litter environment might be directed towards the conditions of the treatment [T(15) regime; earthworms present]| with the corresponding trends in the development of the litter nematode community. 9411,2009,3,4,Combining the Wind Power Generation System With Energy Storage Equipment,With the advancements in wind turbine technologies| the cost of wind energy has become competitive with other fuel-based generation resources. Due to the price hike of fossil fuel and the concern of global warming| the development of wind power has rapidly progressed over the last decade. The annual growth rate has exceeded 26% since the 1990s. Many countries have set a goal for high penetration levels of wind generation. Recently| several large-scale wind generation projects have been implemented all over the world. It is economically beneficial to integrate very large amounts of wind capacity in power systems. Unlike other traditional generation facilities| using wind turbines presents technical challenges in producing continuous and controllable electric power. A distinct feature of wind energy is its nature of being "intermittent." Since it is difficult to predict and control the output of wind generation| its potential impacts on the electric grid are different from the traditional energy sources. At a high penetration level| an extrafast response reserve capacity is needed to cover the shortfall of generation when a sudden deficit of wind takes place. To enable a proper management of the uncertainty| this paper presents an approach to make wind power become a more reliable source on both energy and capacity by using energy storage devices. Combining the wind power generation system with energy storage will reduce fluctuation of wind power. Since it requires capital investment for the storage system| it is important to estimate the reasonable storage capacities for the desired applications. In addition| an energy storage application for reducing the output variation during the gust wind is also studied. 9345,2009,3,3,Combustion and the design of future engine fuels,The fast diminution of readily extractable sources of fossil fuels| particularly oil| and concerns about global warming are leading to the creation of many new potential fuels. Their practicability must be assessed in terms of a wide range of physico-chemical properties| in relation to the operational aerodynamics in different engines. This article concentrates on those properties related to combustion and these are discussed in detail for some fuels with contrasting properties. Intrinsic fuel properties include volumetric energy| vapour pressure| heat of reaction| latent enthalpy of vaporization| and the relative volumes of energy that engines can breathe. Important combustion properties include the minimum ignition energy| laminar burning velocity| Markstein numbers for strain and curvature| flame extinction stretch rates for positive and negative stretch| stretch factor for flame instability| turbulent flame burning and quenching| autoignition delay time| excitation time for autoignition heat release| research and motor octane numbers and cetane number (CN). Such properties are manifest in a variety of aerodynamic contexts: for example| the nature of autoignition depends on spatial reactivity gradients and the acoustic speed. Particular problems can arise in characterizing engine knock when operational regimes are outside those in which the octane and CNs are determined. The approach adopted in this article does not assume any unique alignment between fuels| mode of combustion| and power unit| and different possibilities are discussed. 9959,2009,3,4,Combustion Performance of Biodiesel and Diesel-Vegetable Oil Blends in a Simulated Gas Turbine Burner,Recent increases in fuel costs| concerns for global warming| and limited supplies of fossil fuels have prompted wide spread research on renewable liquid biofuels produced domestically from agricultural feedstock. In this study| two types of biodiesels and vegetable oil (VO) are investigated as potential fuels for gas turbines to generate power. Biodiesels produced from VO and animal fat were considered in this study. The problems of high viscosity and poor volatility of VO (soybean oil) were addressed by using diesel-VO blends with up to 30% VO by volume. Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry| thermogravimetric analysis| and density| kinematic viscosity| surface tension| and water content measurements were used to characterize the fuel properties. The combustion performance of different fuels was compared experimentally in an atmospheric pressure burner with an air-assist injector and swirling primary air around it. For different fuels| the effect of the atomizing airflow rate on Sauter mean diameter was determined from a correlation for air-assist atomizers. Profiles of nitric oxides (NO(x)) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions were obtained for different atomizing airflow rates| while the total airflow rate was kept constant. The results show that despite the compositional differences| the physical properties and emissions of the two biodiesel fuels are similar. Diesel-VO fuel blends resulted in slightly higher CO emissions compared with diesel| while the NO(x) emissions correlated well with the flame temperature. The results show that the CO and NO(x) emissions are determined mainly by fuel atomization and fuel/air mixing processes| and that the fuel composition effects are of secondary importance for fuels and operating conditions of the present study. 9768,2009,2,3,Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change,Targets for stabilizing climate change are often based on considerations of the impacts of different levels of global warming| usually assessing the time of reaching a particular level of warming. However| some aspects of the Earth system| such as global mean temperatures(1) and sea level rise due to thermal expansion(2) or the melting of large ice sheets(3)| continue to respond long after the stabilization of radiative forcing. Here we use a coupled climate-vegetation model to show that in turn the terrestrial biosphere shows significant inertia in its response to climate change. We demonstrate that the global terrestrial biosphere can continue to change for decades after climate stabilization. We suggest that ecosystems can be committed to long-term change long before any response is observable: for example| we find that the risk of significant loss of forest cover in Amazonia rises rapidly for a global mean temperature rise above 2 degrees C. We conclude that such committed ecosystem changes must be considered in the definition of dangerous climate change| and subsequent policy development to avoid it. 9882,2009,3,4,Comparative environmental assessment of wood transport models A case study of a Swedish pulp mill,Wood transportation from forest landing to forest-based industries uses large amounts of energy. In the case of Sweden| where forest operations are highly and efficiently mechanized| this stage consumes more fossil fuels than other elements of the wood supply chain (such as silviculture and logging operations). This paper intends to compare the environmental burdens associated to different wood transport models considering a Swedish pulp mill as a case study by using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as an analytical tool. Five scenarios (the current one and four alternative reliable scenarios) were proposed and analysed taking into account two variables. On the one hand| the influence of imported pulpwood share from Baltic countries and on the other hand| the use of rail transportation for wood transport. in particular| the following impact categories were assessed: Eutrophication| Global Warming| Photochemical Oxidant Formation| Acidification and Fossil fuel extraction. The environmental results indicate that transport alternatives including electric and diesel trains| as well as the reduction in Baltic wood imports should present better environmental performance than the current scenario in terms of all the impact categories under study. Remarkable differences were identified with regard to energy requirements. This divergence is related to different long-distance transport strategies (lorry. boat and/or train) as well as the relative import of wood selected. The combination of lorry and train in wood transportation from Southern Sweden plus the reduction of wood imports from 25% to 15% seems to be more favourable from an environmental perspective. The results obtained allow forecasting the importance of the wood transport strategy in the wood supply chain in LCA of forest products and the influence of energy requirements in the results. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10102,2009,3,4,Comparative life cycle assessments of incineration and non-incineration treatments for medical waste,Management of the medical waste produced in hospitals or health care facilities has raised concerns relating to public health| occupational safety| and the environment. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a decision-supporting tool in waste management practice; but relatively little research has been done on the evaluation of medical waste treatment from a life cycle perspective. Our study compares the environmental performances of two dominant technologies| hazardous waste incineration (HWI) as a type of incineration technology and steam autoclave sterilization with sanitary landfill (AL) as a type of non-incineration technology| for specific medical waste of average composition. The results of this study could support the medical waste hierarchy. This study implemented the ISO 14040 standard. Data on steam autoclave sterilization were obtained from an on-site operations report| while inventory models were used for HWI| sanitary landfill| and residues landfill. Background data were from the ecoinvent database. The comparative LCA was carried out for five alternatives: HWI with energy recovery efficiencies of 0%| 15%| and 30% and AL with energy recovery efficiencies of 0% and 10%. The assumptions on the time frame for landfill markedly affect the impact category scores; however| the orders of preference for both time frames are almost the same. HWI with 30% energy recovery efficiency has the lowest environmental impacts for all impact categories| except freshwater ecotoxicity. Incineration and sanitary landfill processes dominate global warming| freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity| and eutrophication of incineration and non-incineration alternatives| respectively. Dioxin emissions contribute about 10% to human toxicity in HWI without energy recovery alternatives| and a perturbation analysis yielded identical results. As regards eutrophication| non-incineration treatments have an approximately sevenfold higher impact than incineration treatments. The differences between short-term and long-term time frame assumptions mainly are decided by heavy metals dissolved in the future leachate. The high heat value of medical waste due to high contents of biomass| plastic| and rubber materials and a lower content of ash| results in a preference for incineration treatments. The large eutrophication difference between incineration and non-incineration treatments is caused by different N element transformations. Dioxin emission from HWI is not the most relevant to human toxicity; however| large uncertainties could exist. From a life cycle perspective| the conventional waste hierarchy| implying incineration with energy recovery is better than landfill| also applies to the case of medical waste. The sanitary landfill process is the key issue in non-incineration treatments| and HWI and the subsequent residues landfill processes are key issues in incineration treatments. Integrating the medical waste hierarchy and constructing a medical waste framework require broader technologies to be investigated further| based on a life cycle approach. 887,2009,2,4,Comparative response of seedlings of selected native dry tropical and alien invasive species to CO(2) enrichment,Aims Global climate change and ongoing plant invasion are the two prominent ecological issues threatening biodiversity world wide. Among invasive species| Lantana camara and Hyptis suaveolens are the two most important invaders in the dry deciduous forest in India. We monitored the growth of these two invasive species and seedlings of four native dry deciduous species (Acacia catechu| Bauhinia variegata| Dalbergia latifolia and Tectona grandis) under ambient (375-395 mu mol mol(-1)) and elevated CO(2) (700-750 mu mol mol(-1)) to study the differential growth response of invasive and native seedlings. Methods Seedlings of all the species were exposed to ambient and elevated CO(2). After 60 days of exposure| seedlings were harvested and a the growth-related parameters like plant height; biomass of root| stem and leaves; total seedling biomass; R/S ratio; allocation parameters; net assimilation rate (NAR) and relative growth rate (RGR) were determined. Important Findings Biomass| RGR and NAR of all the species increased under elevated CO(2) but the increase was higher in invasive species and they formed larger seedlings than natives. Therefore under the CO(2)-enriched future atmosphere| competitive hierarchies could change and may interfere with the species composition of the invaded area. 9283,2009,5,2,Comparative sclerochronology of modern and mid-Pliocene (c. 3.5 Ma) Aequipecten opercularis (Mollusca| Bivalvia): an insight into past and future climate change in the north-east Atlantic region,Records of environment contained within the accretionarily deposited tissues of fossil organisms afford a means of detailed reconstruction of past climates and hence of rigorous testing of numerical climate models. We identify the environmental factors controlling oxygen and carbon stable-isotopic composition| and microgrowth-increment size| in the shell of modern examples of the Queen Scallop| Aequipecten opercularis. This understanding is then applied in interpretation of data from mid-Pliocene A. opercularis from eastern England. On the basis of oxygen-isotope evidence we conclude that winter minimum seafloor temperature was similar to present values (typically 6-7 degrees C) in the adjacent southern North Sea and that summer maximum seafloor temperature was a few degrees lower than present values (typically 16-17 degrees C). This contrasts with evidence from other proxies that winter and summer temperatures were higher than present. The pattern of seasonal variation in microgrowth-increment size suggests the existence of intense thermal stratification in summer. We therefore conclude that summer surface temperatures were much higher (maxima well over 20 degrees C) than those recorded isotopically on the seafloor and that the annual range of surface temperature (probably over 14 degrees C) was greater than now at the times in the mid-Pliocene when the investigated A. opercularis were alive. Taken in conjunction with other proxy evidence of warmer winters as well as summers| the data point to substantial fluctuation (up to 10 degrees C) in winter minimum temperatures during the mid-Pliocene in the northeast Atlantic region. This fluctuation may be attributable to variation in the strength of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift. Since the Pliocene has been widely used as a test-bed for numerical models of a greenhouse Earth| the results have implications for prediction of future climate in the north-east Atlantic region under the influence of anthropogenic global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9524,2009,3,4,Comparison of gas-solid chromatography and MM2 force field molecular binding energies for greenhouse gases on a carbonaceous surface,Gas-solid chromatography was used to determine B(2s) (gas-solid virial coefficient) values for eight molecular adsorbates interacting with a carbon powder (Carbopack B| Supelco). B(2s) values were determined by multiple size variant injections within the temperature range of 313-553 K. The Molecular adsorbates included: carbon dioxide (CO(2).): tetrafluoromethane (CF(4)); hexafluoroethane (C(2)F(6)); 1|1-difluoroethane (C(2)H(4)F(2)); 1-chloro-1|1-difluoroethane (C(2)H(3)ClF(2)); dichlorodifluoromethane (CCl(2)F(2)); trichlorofluoromethane (CCl(3)F); and 1|1|1-trichloroethane (C(2)H(3)Cl(3)). Two of these molecules are of special interest because they are "super greenhouse gases". The global warming potential| GWP| for CF(4) is 6500 and for C(2)F(6) is 9200 relative to the reference value of 1 for CO(2). The GWP index considers both radiative blocking and molecular lifetime. For these and other industrial greenhouse gases| adsorptive trapping on a carbonaceous solid| which depends on molecule-surface binding energy| could avoid atmospheric release. The temperature variations of the gas-solid virial coefficients in conjunction with van't Hoff plots were used to find the experimental adsorption energy or binding energy values (E*) for each adsorbate. A molecular mechanics based| rough-surface model was used to Calculate the molecule-surface binding energy (Ecal*) using augmented MM2 parameters. The Surface model consisted of parallel graphene layers with two separated nanostructures each containing 17 benzene rings arranged in linear strips. The separation of the parallel nanostructures had been optimized in a prior study to appropriately represent molecule-surface interactions for Carbopack B. Linear regressions of E* versus Ecal* for the Current data set of eight molecules and the same Surface model gave E* = 0.926Ecal* and r(2)=0.956. A combined set of the Current and prior Carbopack B adsorbates studied (linear alkanes| branched alkanes| cyclic alkanes| ethers| and halogenated hydrocarbons) gave a data set with 33 molecules and a regression of E* = 0.991 Ecal* and r(2)=0.968. These results indicated a good correlation between the experimental and the MM2 computed molecule-surface binding energies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 9701,2009,2,4,Comparison of pan evaporation and actual evaporation estimated by land surface model in Xinjiang from 1960 to 2005,Pan evaporation| an indictor of potential evaporation| has decreased during the last several decades in many parts of the world; the trend is contrary to the expectation that the increase of actual evaporation will accompany global warming| known as the pan evaporation paradox. What is the essential relationship between pan evaporation and actual evaporation? This is still an uncertain problem. In this paper| the trends of pan evaporation and actual evaporation are investigated using observational data and observation-constrained simulation results using NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) in Xinjiang from 1960 to 2005. Our analysis suggests that the decreasing trend of annual pan evaporation accompanies the increasing trend of annual actual evaporation| the tendencies of them both have statistical significance (at 99% level and at 95% level| respectively). We also find that there is the same turning point in precipitation| pan evaporation and actual evaporation of 1986| and either before the point or after| pan evaporation has inverse trend comparing with actual evaporation and precipitation. The above analysis indicates that pan evaporation and actual evaporation have complementary relationship. These results support the issue of evaporation paradox described by Brutsaert and Parlange (1998) and suggest that decrease of pan evaporation indicates an increase of actual evaporation in Xinjiang in the past half century. The correlation analysis shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR)| wind speed| low cloud cover and precipitation are the most likely driving forces for the reduced pan evaporation and the ascending actual evaporation. 9775,2009,2,4,Comparison of the impacts of consumers| ambient UV| and future UVB irradiance on mid-latitudinal macroepibenthic assemblages,Future levels in ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation are expected to increase directly due to stratospheric ozone depletion and under water indirectly by| for example| global warming effects on DOC concentrations| altered trophic interactions in the plankton| or reduced eutrophication. While detrimental UV effects have been reported at the cellular level| little to nothing is known about community-wide effects of ambient and future UVB radiation. In a 4-month field experiment| the ambient UV regime was (i) reduced by cut-off filters which removed either UVB or total UV from the solar spectrum or (ii) increased to predicted future levels by UVB lamps. To allow relating the effects of present and future UV regimes to another important ecological control of community structure and diversity in subtidal marine habitats| consumer effects were quantified by an exclusion treatment under ambient light regimes. Ambient UV regimes did not affect community structure| biomass accrual| and diversity. In contrast| under enhanced UVB levels| the dominance of the competitively superior blue mussels increased and species richness and biomass accrual decreased. Species composition of the assemblages differed between the two UV regimes. Effects of enhanced UVB radiation and of consumption on biomass accrual| diversity| and structure of the community were comparable in magnitude and timing| but of opposite direction. In contrast| the effects of enhanced UVB radiation on growth and abundance of mussels were in the same direction| but shorter and weaker than consumer effects. Most UV effects were transitory and vanished within the first 2 months of succession. Our results indicate that present and future UVB levels may be of limited importance and not stronger in effect size than other ecological controls in structuring the shallow-water low-diversity macrobenthic communities in temperate regions. 10281,2009,2,4,Complex climate controls on 20th century oak growth in Central-West Germany,We analyze interannual to multi-decadal growth variations of 555 oak trees from Central-West Germany. A network of 13 pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) and 33 sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) site chronologies is compared with gridded temperature| precipitation|. cloud-cover| vapor pressure and drought (i.e.| Palmer Drought Severity Index| PDSI) fluctuations. A hierarchic cluster analysis identifies three groups for each oak species differentiated by ecologic settings. When high precipitation is primarily a characteristic for one Q. rohur and one Q. petraea cluster| the other clusters are more differentiated by prevailing temperature conditions. Correlation analysis with precipitation and vapor pressure reveals statistically significant (P <= 0.05) correlations for June (r = 0.51) and annual (r = 0.43) means. Growth of both species at dry sites correlates strongly with PDSI (r = 0.39| P <= 0.05) and weakly with temperature and cloud-cover. In natural stands| Q. robur responds more strongly to water depletion than Q. petraea. Twenty-one-year moving correlations show positive significant growth response to both PDSI and precipitation throughout the 20th century| except for the 1940s - an anomalously warm decade during which all oak sites are characterized by an increased growth and all enhanced association with vapor pressure and temperature. We Suggest that the wider oak rings that are exhibited during this period may be indicative of a nonlinear or threshold-induced growth response to drought and vapor pressure| and run counter to the general response of oak to drought and precipitation that normally would result ill Suppressed growth ill a warmer and drier environment. As the wide rings are formed during the severe drought period of the 20th century| a complex model seems to be required to fully explain the widespread oak growth. Our results indicate Uncertainty in estimates of future growth trends of Central European oak forests in a warming and drying world. 9929,2009,4,2,Components of precipitation and temperature anomalies and change associated with modes of the Southern Hemisphere,A long simulation of climate by the CSIRO Mark 3 coupled atmosphere - ocean model is analysed to assess the role of three modes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on the inter-annual variability of precipitation and surface temperature and the contribution of the modes to patterns of change under global warming. Indices of El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) and the high- and low-latitude modes (HLM| LLM) of zonal mean zonal wind are extracted from monthly means during the period 1871 - 1970. The model El Nino brings mostly drier and warmer conditions to Australia - New Zealand (NZ)| South America and southern Africa in both annual and seasonal means. The HLM and LLM modes impact rainfall and temperature in banded patterns. Positive HLM [which is closely related to the southern annular mode (SAM) in pressure] moistens and cools around 20-35 degrees S particularly near the east coast of each continent. Farther south it mostly dries and warms| especially in the austral winter. The LLM has some impacts| including increased summer rain in western Australia| and temperature anomalies in eastern South America in autumn. Mostly similar patterns are found in the ERA40 observational data. Changes in the indices in the 22nd century| following warming forced by the A I B greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario| are positive| in most cases| and similar in magnitude to their inter-annual variability. The drying and warming of Australia associated with an El Nino-like change are largely countered by the HLM-like change| and similar effects are seen in parts of the other continents. The far south of NZ and South America are dried and warmed by the HLM change| but these relative changes are countered by non-modal effects in the Southern Ocean. Overall the impact of the simulated modes is largest on Australia| with the HLM being as important as ENSO in the mid-latitudes. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society 9439,2009,3,3,Composting and compost utilization: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions,Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to composting of organic waste and the use of compost were assessed from a waste management perspective. The GHG accounting for composting includes use of electricity and fuels| emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from the composting process| and savings obtained by the use of the compost. The GHG account depends on waste type and composition (kitchen organics| garden waste)| technology type (open systems| closed systems| home composting)| the efficiency of off-gas cleaning at enclosed composting systems| and the use of the compost. The latter is an important issue and is related to the long-term binding of carbon in the soil| to related effects in terms of soil improvement and to what the compost substitutes; this could be fertilizer and peat for soil improvement or for growth media production. The overall global warming factor (GWF) for composting therefore varies between significant savings (-900 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) wet waste (ww)) and a net load (300 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) ww). The major savings are obtained by use of compost as a substitute for peat in the production of growth media. However| it may be difficult for a specific composting plant to document how the compost is used and what it actually substitutes for. Two cases representing various technologies were assessed showing how GHG accounting can be done when specific information and data are available. 9980,2009,4,2,Concept of planetary thermal balance and global warming,The concept of Earth's thermal balance is used to suggest that solar energy absorbed by a planet is equal to the heat radiated from that planet. Such an approach substantially simplifies estimating the anthropogenic warming of the planet. We compare the solar irradiance with the current heat production caused by burning different kinds of fuel. We show that anthropogenic heating is able to cause global warming of 1 degrees C in a century. 9938,2009,2,4,Connecting phenological predictions with population growth rates for mountain pine beetle| an outbreak insect,It is expected that a significant impact of global warming will be disruption of phenology as environmental cues become disassociated from their selective impacts. However there are few| if any| models directly connecting phenology with population growth rates. In this paper we discuss connecting a distributional model describing mountain pine beetle phenology with a model of population success measured using annual growth rates derived from aerially detected counts of infested trees. This model bridges the gap between phenology predictions and population viability/growth rates for mountain pine beetle. The model is parameterized and compared with 8 years of data from a recent outbreak in central Idaho| and is driven using measured tree phloem temperatures from north and south bole aspects and cumulative forest area impacted. A model driven by observed south-side phloem temperatures and that includes a correction for forest area previously infested and killed is most predictive and generates realistic parameter values of mountain pine beetle fecundity and population growth. Given that observed phloem temperatures are not always available| we explore a variety of methods for using daily maximum and minimum ambient temperatures in model predictions. 1037,2009,2,3,Consequences of climate change on some maize characteristics in Hungary,The influences of global climate change oil sensible and latent heat fluxes of maize were Studied by using| file Simulation model of Goudriaan (1977). Fight scenarios were made| all increase of CO(2) content until doubling the recent content was included in the scenarios. Some of the scenarios were developed by downscaling the IPCC (2007) report (A2 and B2) to Hungary| and the others by taking into account more Serious weather changes. surprisingly| the distribution of intercepted radiation among sensible and latent heat fluxes ill file individual scenarios was not significantly modified. A given increase in ambient air temperature caused a lesser rise in crop temperature at cob level| demonstrating the compensation role of the canopy. The moderate rise in crop temperature indicated that the plains did not suffer significantly from lack of water in any of the scenarios. However| there was a variation during the diurnal cycle. The doubled CO| concentration alone increased the net carbon assimilation rate of maize by 40%. Photosynthesis decreased only in cases with warmings higher than 6 degrees C. Decreased precipitation counteracted the Positive influence of elevated CO(2) on carbon assimilation. In other scenarios the latent heat flux increased in comparison to control run. This justifies the existence of reserve soil water at Keszthely| even in on extra hot day during July. 9534,2009,2,4,Conservation of the Unique Neotropical Vascular Flora of the Guayana Highlands in the Face of Global Warming,The risk of biodiversity loss in the tropics is so severe that it seems to compromise the continuity over time of the latitudinal biodiversity gradient (Vamosi & Vamosi 2008). Concerns about tropical biodiversity conservation are highly biased toward rainforests and their increasing disappearance due to human activities (Bush & Flenley 2007; Laurance 2007; Bhagwat et al. 2008). In the Neotropics| the Amazon lowland forests and their preservation are the main subjects of debate (e.g.| Bush&Silman 2007)| but other ecosystems are equally (or even more) endangered in a way that can significantly contribute to global biodiversity loss predicted for this century. This is the case for communities of the Guayana Highlands (Fig. 1)| which form a unique biogeographical province called Pantepui (Berry et al. 1995). The Guayana Highlands (GH) are among the most pristine places on the Earth and are a well-recognized center of Neotropical biodiversity and endemism (Rull 2007). In the summits of the Guayana sandstone table mountains (the tepuis; ∼ 5000 km2 ) almost 2500 species of vascular plants have been described| of which > 40% are endemic to the GH and ∼ 25% are local endemics (Berry & Riina 2005). The diversity of vegetation types is also outstanding| and there are several unique communities| usually dominated by endemic species (Huber 2005). In spite of the apparent lack of direct environmental menaces (Huber 1995a )| the GH biota will be seriously threatened with extinction through habitat loss if current warming predictions are realized. A preliminary study on a representative set of vascular plant species suggests that an increase of 2–4 â—¦ C| as prognosticated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for 2100| would determine the extinction by habitat loss of 10–30% of the endemic species (Rull & Vegas-Vilarr´ubia 2006). A more recent survey of the entire known vascular flora revealed that 75–80% of all species (1700–1900 species) and 30–50% of endemic species (200–400 species) are in danger of extinction (Nogu´e et al. 2009). At present| a research program| is in progress| aimed at classifying these species following the updated International Union for Conservation of Nature system (IUCN 2008; Mace et al. 2008) and accurately defining their conservation priorities on the basis of objective criteria. If these estimates are reliable| species will migrate upward at similar rates as climatic change is occurring. If they are unable to do so| extinctions will be even higher. Unfortunately| the lack of this type of study in GH prevents sound assessment| and hypotheses have to be based on examples from other areas.
1029,2009,4,2,Consistency in Global Climate Change Model Predictions of Regional Precipitation Trends,Projections of human-induced climate change impacts arising from the emission of atmospheric chemical constituents such as carbon dioxide typically utilize multiple integrations (or ensembles) of numerous numerical climate change models to arrive at multimodel ensembles from which mean and median values and probabilities can be inferred about the response of various components of the observed climate system. Some responses are considered reliable in as much as the simulated responses show consistency within ensembles and across models. Other responses-particularly at regional levels and for certain parameters such as precipitation-show little intermodel consistency even in the sign of the projected climate changes. The authors' results show that in these regions the consistency in the sign of projected precipitation variations is greater for intramodel runs (e. g.| runs from the same model) than intermodel runs (e. g.| runs from different models)| indicating that knowledge of the internal "dynamics" of the climate system can provide additional skill in making projections of climate change. Given the consistency provided by the governing dynamics of the model| the authors test whether persistence from an individual model trajectory serves as a good predictor for its own behavior by the end of the twenty-first century. Results indicate that| in certain regions where intermodel consistency is low| the short-term trends of individual model trajectories do provide additional skill in making projections of long-term climate change. The climate forcing for which this forecast skill becomes relatively large (e. g.| correct in 75% of the individual model runs) is equivalent to the anthropogenic climate forcing imposed over the past century| suggesting that observed changes in precipitation in these regions can provide guidance about the direction of future precipitation changes over the course of the next century. 10222,2009,5,3,Contact metamorphism| halocarbons| and environmental crises of the past,What triggered the largest know mass extinction at the Permian-Triassic boundary 252 million years ago| when 95% of the species in the oceans disappeared? New geological data suggest that eruptions of carbon (CH(4)| CO(2)) and halocarbon (CH(3)Cl and CH(3)Br) gases from the vast sedimentary basins of east Siberia could have triggered a period with global warming (5 degrees-10 degrees C) and terrestrial mass extinction. The gases were generated during contact metamorphism of sedimentary rocks around 1200 degrees C hot igneous intrusions. One of the suggested end-Permian extinction mechanisms is the extreme ultraviolet radiation (UV-B) caused by a prolonged destruction of stratospheric ozone induced by the emitted halocarbons. This hypothesis is supported by a new set of experiments| where natural rock salt samples from Siberia were heated to 275 degrees C. Among the gases generated during heating are methyl chloride (CH(3)Cl) and methyl bromide (CH(3)Br). These findings open up new possibilities for investigating ancient environmental crises. 9463,2009,2,4,Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route,Since the beginning of the 20th century| the principal commercial maritime routes have changed very little. With global warming| the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has opened up as a possible avenue of trade in containerized products between Asia and Europe. This paper verifies the technical and economic feasibility of regular container transport along the NSR. By adopting a model schedule between Shanghai and Hamburg| we are able to analyze the relative costs of various axes in the Asia-Europe transport network| including the NSR. While shipping through the Suez Canal is still by far the least expensive option| the NSR and Trans-Siberian Railway appear to be roughly equivalent second-tier alternatives. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9993,2009,4,3,Contributions of carbon cycle uncertainty to future climate projection spread,We have characterized the relative contributions to uncertainty in predictions of global warming amount by year 2100 in the C4MIP model ensemble (Friedlingstein et al.| 2006) due to both carbon cycle process uncertainty and uncertainty in the physical climate properties of the Earth system. We find carbon cycle uncertainty to be important. On average the spread in transient climate response is around 40% of that due to the more frequently debated uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity and global heat capacity. This result is derived by characterizing the influence of different parameters in a global climate-carbon cycle 'box' model that has been calibrated against the 11 General Circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) in the C4MIP ensemble; a collection of current state-of-the-art climate models that include an explicit representation of the global carbon cycle. 10154,2009,2,3,Controls on the Activation and Strength of a High-Latitude Convective Cloud Feedback,Previous work has shown that a convective cloud feedback can greatly increase high-latitude surface temperature upon the removal of sea ice and can keep sea ice from forming throughout polar night. This feedback activates at increased greenhouse gas concentrations. It may help to explain the warm "equable climates" of the late Cretaceous and early Paleogene eras (similar to 100 to similar to 35 million years ago) and may be relevant for future climate under global warming. Here| the factors that determine the critical threshold CO(2) concentration at which this feedback is active and the magnitude of the warming caused by the feedback are analyzed using both a highly idealized model and NCAR's single-column atmospheric model ( SCAM) run under Arctic-like conditions. The critical CO(2) is particularly important because it helps to establish the relevance of the feedback for past and future climates. Both models agree that increased heat flux into the high latitudes at low altitudes generally decreases the critical CO(2). Increases in oceanic heat transport and in solar radiation absorbed during the summer should cause a sharp decrease in the critical CO(2)| but the effect of increases in atmospheric heat transport depends on its vertical distribution. It is furthermore found (i) that if the onset of convection produces more clouds and moisture| the critical CO(2) should decrease| and the maximum temperature increase caused by the convective cloud feedback should increase and (ii) that reducing the depth of convection reduces the critical CO(2) but has little effect on the maximum temperature increase caused by the convective cloud feedback. These results should help with interpretation of the strength and onset of the convective cloud feedback as found| for example| in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) coupled ocean-atmosphere models with different cloud and convection schemes. 9640,2009,3,3,Controls on the Carbon Balance of Tropical Peatlands,The carbon balance of tropical peatlands was investigated using measurements of gaseous fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and methane (CH(4)) at several land-use types| including nondrained forest (NDF)| drained forest (DF)| drained regenerating forest (DRF) after clear cutting and agricultural land (AL) in Central Kalimantan| Indonesia. Soil greenhouse gas fluxes depended on land-use| water level (WL)| microtopography| temperature and vegetation physiology| among which WL was the strongest driver. All sites were CH(4) sources on an annual basis and the emissions were higher in sites providing fresh litter deposition and water logged conditions. Soil CO(2) flux increased exponentially with soil temperature (T(s)) even within an amplitude of 4-5 degrees C. In the NDF soil CO(2) flux sharply decreased when WLs rose above -0.2 and 0.1 m for hollows and hummocks| respectively. The sharp decrease suggests that the contribution of surface soil respiration (RS) to total soil CO(2) flux is large. In the DF soil CO(2) flux increased as WL decreased below -0.7 m probably because the fast aerobic decomposition continued in lower peat. Such an increase in CO(2) flux at low WLs was also found at the stand level of the DF. Soil CO(2) flux showed diurnal variation with a peak in the daytime| which would be caused by the circadian rhythm of root respiration. Among the land-use types| annual soil CO(2) flux was the largest in the DRF and the smallest in the AL. Overall| the global warming potential (GWP) of CO(2) emissions in these land-use types was much larger than that of CH(4) fluxes. 956,2009,5,4,Cooling history constrained by detrital (40)Ar/(39)Ar geochronology in Eastern Himalaya Syntaxis: Implications for climatic and tectonic records.,As one of the most typical examples| Himalaya orogen is the focus in studying an important and front dispute in Earth science. It is a paradox problem that the uplift of mountains is caused by climatic process or by tectonic movement. Both climatic and tectonic uplift are linked to surface erosion| the influence of which to geological system call be described by means of the cooling history of minerals or rocks. So the cooling history of it mountain range is the key to uncover the geological process of rising mountains. Research on minerals front river sediments is one of the most useful methods in modern geological sciences to reveal the geological process and the tectonic evolution. For the purpose described above| newly deposited fine-grain river sand was sampled at Didong reach| which locates around the lower reach of Yalung-Zangbo River| to obtain high precision (40)Ar/(39)Ar geochronological data on single crystals of hornblende| muscovite| biotite and K-feldspar collected from the sample| and a statistical diagram of age probability is shown in the contrast figure. The high precision (40)Ar/(39)Ar geochronological data on single crystals of minerals from sediments at Didong reach reveals tire cooling history of rocks in the drainage area of Yalung-Zangbo Great Canyon. According to the statistical results| the episodes of cooling history of tire drainage area of Yaluang-Zangbo Great. Canyon can he identified as 70 similar to 69|61 similar to 60|43 similar to 42|35 similar to 34| 26 similar to 25| 25 similar to 23| 22 similar to 20| 20 similar to 18| 17 similar to 14| 12 similar to 11| 8 similar to 6| 5 similar to 4 and < 2Ma respectively. The contrast of age statistical results against the Figure showing the changes in rate and angle of convergence during India plate has been colliding against Eurasian plate since Late Mesozoic shows that probably the ages of 70 similar to 69| 61 similar to 60| 43 similar to 42| 35 similar to 34| 22 similar to 20 and 12 similar to 11 Ma are records of tectonic events of changes in rate and angle of convergence of the two continent| while the contrast of the age statistical results against the diagram consisting of global deep-sea delta(18)O and delta(13)C records suggests that the ages of 26 similar to 25| 25 similar to 23| 17 similar to 14| 8 similar to 6| 5 similar to 4 and <2Ma seem to be the records of global climate change. The (40)Ar/(39)Ar geocbronological data published in this paper reveals the interaction of tectonic and climatic in rock uplifting in Eastern Himalaya Syntaxis. 9857,2009,2,4,Copepod life cycle adaptations and success in response to phytoplankton spring bloom phenology,In a seasonal environment| the timing of reproduction is usually scheduled to maximize the survival of offspring. Within deep water bodies| the phytoplankton spring bloom provides a short time window of high food quantity and quality for herbivores. The onset of algal bloom development| however| varies strongly from year to year due to interannual variability in meteorological conditions. Furthermore| the onset is predicted to change with global warming. Here| we use a long-term dataset to study (a) how a cyclopoid copepod| Cyclops vicinus| is dealing with the large variability in phytoplankton bloom phenology| and (b) if bloom phenology has an influence on offspring numbers. C. vicinus performed a two-phase dormancy| that is| the actual diapause of fourth copepodid stages at the lake bottom is followed by a delay in maturation| that is| a quiescence| within the fifth copepodid stage until the start of the spring bloom. This strategy seems to guarantee a high temporal match of the food requirements for successful offspring development| especially through the highly vulnerable naupliar stages| with the phytoplankton spring bloom. However| despite this match with food availability in all study years| offspring numbers| that is| offspring survival rates were higher in years with an early start of the phytoplankton bloom. In addition| the phenology of copepod development suggested that also within study years| early offspring seems to have lower mortality rates than late produced offspring. We suggest that this is due to a longer predator-free time period and/or reduced time stress for development. Hence| within the present climate variability| the copepod benefited from warmer spring temperatures resulting in an earlier phytoplankton spring bloom. Time will show if the copepod's strategy is flexible enough to cope with future warming. 9449,2009,2,4,Coral bleaching and habitat degradation increase susceptibility to predation for coral-dwelling fishes,Climate-induced coral bleaching frequently leads to declines in the abundance and diversity of coral-associated fishes| though the proximate causes of these declines are largely unknown. In this study| we show that coral-dwelling damselfishes associated with bleached and dead coral hosts are more susceptible to predation compared with fishes associated with healthy coral colonies. Although the predator (Pseudochromis fuscus) actively avoided both bleached and recently dead corals| they were almost twice as likely to strike at prey associated with the stark white colonies of bleached corals. These results suggest that coral-dwelling fishes are much more conspicuous against the bleached-white background| increasing their susceptibility to predation. Direct estimates of predation rates in aquaria were 33% and 37% on bleached and recently dead coral colonies| respectively| compared with 25% on healthy coral colonies. However| predation rates were highest (42%) on algal-covered corals| reflective of colonies that have further degraded after bleaching. We argue that increased susceptibility to predation may contribute to declines in abundance of coral-dwelling fishes after host coral bleaching. Even if predation does not cause increased in situ mortality| it is likely that increased exposure to predators will provide significant motivation for coral-dwelling fishes to vacate bleached coral hosts. 1031,2009,2,2,Coral Reefs Threats and Conservation in an Era of Global Change,Coral reefs are iconic| threatened ecosystems that have been in existence for similar to 500 million years| yet their continued ecological persistence seems doubtful at present. Anthropogenic modification of chemical and physical atmospheric dynamics that cause coral death by bleaching and newly emergent diseases due to increased heat and irradiation| as well as decline in calcification caused by ocean acidification due to increased CO(2)| are the most important large-scale threats. On more local scales| overfishing and destructive fisheries| coastal construction| nutrient enrichment| increased runoff and sedimentation| and the introduction of nonindigenous invasive species have caused phase shifts away from corals. Already similar to 20% of the world's reefs are lost and similar to 26% are under imminent threat. Conservation science of coral reefs is well advanced| but its practical application has often been lagging. Societal priorites| economic pressures| and legal/administrative systems of many countries are more prone to destroy rather than conserve coral-reef ecosystems. Nevertheless| many examples of successful conservation exist from the national level to community-enforced local action. When effectively managed| protected areas have contributed to regeneration of coral reefs and stocks of associated marine resources. Local communities often support coral-reef conservation in order to raise income potential associated with tourism and/or improved resource levels. Coral reefs create an annual income in S-Florida alone of over $4 billion. Thus| no conflict between development| societal welfare| and coral-reef conservation needs to exist. Despite growing threats| it is not too late for decisive action to protect and save these economically and ecologically high-value ecosystems. Conservation science plays a critical role in designing effective strategies. 963,2009,3,4,Corn Cob Characteristics in Irrigated Central Great Plains Studies,Escalating fossil fuel cost and concern over global climate change have accelerated interest in cellulosic feedstocks| such as corn (Zea mays L.) cobs| for liquid fuel production. Little information is available about this plant organ. We compiled and summarized available cob data from several recent field studies in the Central Great Plains. Data were collected from two locations in Colorado and two in Texas that had multiple N fertilizer treatments| varying tillage systems| and different growing seasons. Cob:grain yield ratio| cob:ear ratio| cob:stover ratio| and cob N and C uptake were determined for each site. Cob yield generally increased with increasing N rate. At the high N rates| cob yield ranged from 1.44 to 2.2 Mg ha(-1). Cob:stover ratio ranged from 0.14 to 0.25 at high N fertilizer levels. The N concentration varied little among N levels at any location| varying more among locations and year| ranging from 2.52 to 5.19 g kg(-1). Nitrogen uptake at the highest N-levels ranged from 4.65 to 8.37 kg ha(-1). The relationship between final grain yield at 155 g kg(-1) water content and oven-dried cob yield was linear (r(2) = 0.75) such that cob yield increased 0.096 Mg ha(-1) for each Mg ha(-1) increase in grain yield. This study provides basic information on cob yield and quality for agronomists| and examples are discussed on how the data could be useful for determining the feasibility of harvesting corn cobs as a cellulosic feedstock. 796,2009,2,4,CORRELATIONS BETWEEN EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND CHANGES IN NEARCTIC-NEOTROPIC MIGRANT CONDITION IN CENTRAL AMERICA,Climatic changes induced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) commonly influence biological systems; however| climatic variability and multitrophic interactions within tropical latitudes remain poorly understood. We examined relationships between migrant condition and ENSO during spring migration in Costa Rica. Our study is based on correlating an ENSO index with body-condition metrics of six Nearctic-Neotropic migrant bird species during stopover in Costa Rica over a 10-year period. This study is the first to report correlations between El Nino and changes in condition of multiple migrant species. The condition of one insectivore improved| whereas two frugivores experienced reduced condition during El Nino. Our detected correlations suggest that the ENSO cycle may influence changes in migrant mass; such interactions may ultimately affect demographics of certain frugivorous and insectivorous migrant species. Potential future management considerations are discussed in light of global climate change and our findings. Received 27 January 2008| accepted 28 April 2009. 781,2009,4,1,Cost-benefit analysis of climate change dynamics: uncertainties and the value of information,We analyze climate change in a cost-benefit framework| using the emission and concentration profiles of Wigley et al. (Nature 379(6562):240-243| 1996). They present five scenarios that cover the period 1990-2300 and are designed to reach stabilized concentration levels of 350| 450| 550| 650 and 750 ppmv| respectively. We assume that the damage cost in each year t is proportional to the corresponding gross world product and the square of the atmospheric temperature increase (Delta T(t)). The latter is estimated with a simple two-box model (representing the atmosphere and deep ocean). Coupling the damage cost with the abatement cost| we interpolate between the five scenarios to find the one that is optimal in the sense of minimizing the sum of discounted annual (abatement plus damage) costs over a time horizon of N years. Our method is simpler than 'traditional' models with the same purpose| and thus allows for a more transparent sensitivity study with respect to the uncertainties of all parameters involved. We report our central result in terms of the stabilized emission level E (o) and concentration level p (o) (i.e. their values at t = 300 years) of the optimal scenario. For the central parameter values (that is| N = 150 years| a discount rate r (dis) = 2%/year and a growth rate r (gro) = 1%/year of gross world product) we find E (o) = 8.0 GtCO(2)/year and p (o) = 496 ppmv. Varying the parameters over a wide range| we find that the optimal emission level remains within a remarkably narrow range| from about 6.0 to 12 GtCO(2)/year for all plausible parameter values. To assess the significance of the uncertainties we focus on the social cost penalty| defined as the extra cost incurred by society relative to the optimum if one makes the wrong choice of the emission level as a result of erroneous damage and abatement cost estimates. In relative terms the cost penalty turns out to be remarkably insensitive to errors. For example| if the true damage costs are three times larger or smaller than the estimate| the total social cost of global climate change increases by less than 20% above its minimum at the true optimal emission level. Because of the enormous magnitude of the total costs involved with climate change (mitigation)| however| even a small relative error implies large additional expenses in absolute terms. To evaluate the benefit of reducing cost uncertainties| we plot the cost penalty as function of the uncertainty in relative damage and abatement costs| expressed as geometric standard deviation and standard deviation respectively. If continued externality analysis reduces the geometric standard deviation of relative damage cost estimates from 5 to 4| the benefit is 0.05% of the present value G (tot) of total gross word product over 150 years (about $3.9 x 10(15))| and if further research reduces the standard deviation of relative abatement costs from 1 to 0.5| the benefit is 0.03% of G (tot) . 9600,2009,3,3,Costs and global impacts of black carbon abatement strategies,Abatement of particulate matter has traditionally been driven by health concerns rather than its role in global warming. Here we assess future abatement strategies in terms of how much they reduce the climate impact of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) from contained combustion. We develop global scenarios which take into account regional differences in climate impact| costs of abatement and ability to pay| as well as both the direct and indirect (snow-albedo) climate impact of BC and OC. To represent the climate impact| we estimate consistent region-specific values of direct and indirect global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature potential (GTP). The indirect GWP has been estimated using a physical approach and includes the effect of change in albedo from BC deposited on snow. The indirect GWP is highest in the Middle East followed by Russia| Europe and North America| while the total GWP is highest in the Middle East| Africa and South Asia. We conclude that prioritizing emission reductions in Asia represents the most cost-efficient global abatement strategy for BC because Asia is (1) responsible for a large share of total emissions| (2) has lower abatement costs compared to Europe and North America and (3) has large health cobenefits from reduced PM(10) emissions. 9448,2009,2,4,Costs of reproduction in circumpolar Parnassia palustris L. in light of global warming,Life-history theories predict competition and compromises between different reproductive and somatic (e.g.| growth) functions in plants. This study concerns the costs of reproduction in an alpine herb| Parnassia palustris L.| in light of global warming. The field experiments involved manipulations of temperature regime using open top chambers| and manipulations of the current level of reproductive investment by supplemental hand-pollination (SP) and bud removal (BR). The study continued for 2 years and costs of reproduction were evaluated in the second year by comparing reproductive outputs and growth between treatment groups. Flower manipulations carried out the first year had no statistically significant effect on reproductive or somatic variables in the second year| which suggests that reproductive costs in P. palustris are limited. Increased temperature| however| had a positive effect on a range of reproductive traits such as seed number| seed mass per fruit| mass per seed| and ratios between reproductive outputs and growth| but had no statistically significant influence on growth. No statistically significant interaction effects between flower manipulation and warming were revealed| which implies that the effects of flower manipulation in the first year does not differ statistically significantly between the two temperature regimes in the next year. We conclude that the lack of reproductive costs found in P. palustris at Finse expresses that resources are not restricted under a level that will induce high costs of reproduction. Furthermore| higher temperatures do not affect the costs| and finally| it appears that the reproductive costs are fine-tune controlled| which implies optimizing rather than maximizing of reproductive and somatic outputs. 788,2009,3,3,Critical need for new definitions of "forest" and "forest degradation" in global climate change agreements,If global policies intended to promote forest conservation continue to use the definition of "forest" adopted in 2001 by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (an area of >0.05-1 ha with >10-30% cover of plants >2-5 m tall at maturity)| great quantities of carbon and other environmental values will be lost when natural forests are severely degraded or replaced by plantations but technically remain "forests." While a definition of "forest" that is globally acceptable and appropriate for monitoring using standard remote sensing options will necessarily be based on a small set of easily measured parameters| there are dangers when simple definitions are applied locally. At the very least| we recommend that natural forest be differentiated from plantations and that for defining "forest" the lower height limit defining "trees" be set at more than 5 m tall with the minimum cover of trees be set at more than 40%. These changes will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions from what is now termed forest "degradation" without increasing monitoring costs. Furthermore| these minor changes in the definition of "forest" will promote the switch from degradation to responsible forest management| which will help mitigate global warming while protecting biodiversity and contributing to sustainable development. 10013,2009,3,4,Critical Radius of Axial Magnetic-Field Contacts in Vacuum Interrupters,Vacuum circuit breakers (VCBs) are widely used to protect medium-voltage (MV) power distribution circuits. Since SF(6) gas is specified as a global warming gas| VCBs are stepping into a higher voltage sector to protect power transmission circuits. Axial magnetic field (AMF) contacts are widely used in vacuum interrupters. In this paper| we propose a concept of critical radius of AMF contacts. When coil width and coil height are fixed| the axial magnetic flux density increases first with increasing contact diameter. Then| it reaches a maximum value. Thereafter| the axial magnetic flux density decreases. The contact radius corresponding to the maximum axial magnetic flux density is critical radius. The concept of critical radius is validated by coil-type AMF contacts and slot-type AMF contacts in MV vacuum interrupters with finite-element analysis. Critical radius is only related to contact geometry parameters and the current has no influence on critical radius. Critical radius increases with increasing contact gap| coil width| coil height| and thickness of the contact plate. In high-voltage AMF vacuum interrupters| axial magnetic flux density per kiloampere increases with increasing contact diameter since the critical radius is typically high with a high contact gap and it is in the rising branch. In an MV AMF vacuum interrupter| inter-rupting capacity could increase with an increase of the contact diameter with a different rising rate before and after the critical radius. This is expected to be experimentally validated. 860,2009,2,4,Critical thermal tolerance polygons of tropical marine fishes from Sulawesi| Indonesia,1. Replicate thermal tolerance polygons were created using critical thermal methodology (CTM) and statistically compared. 2. Reef-associated damselfish and cardinalfish displayed the smallest total and intrinsic polygon zones and equal upper and lower acquired tolerance zones within species. 3. Two gobiids and a mullet species (resident and transient to tidepools| respectively) showed greater total and intrinsic tolerance zones than reef-associated species. 4. These CTM-polygons assess the thermal biology of fishes in habitats sensitive to global climate change and suggest that tropical Indo-Pacific fishes are likely to be affected by indirect consequences of global climate change| rather than by direct temperature mortality. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 961,2009,2,4,Cross-scale environmental influences on migratory stopover behaviour,Migratory species may be especially sensitive to climate change because their lifecycles are affected by dynamic ecological processes operating at global spatial scales. Insight into environmental effects upon en route decisions by migrants can therefore be a critical first step toward assessing their vulnerability to future climatic shifts. We extracted behaviour-related parameters from a recent formulation of multistate mark-recapture models| and used them to evaluate the importance of variation in local weather and broad-scale climate to decisions made by autumn passerine migrants at a coastal stopover site in Atlantic Canada. We found dramatic interannual fluctuations in the proportion of migrants that were transient (departing within a day of arrival)| with annual average values ranging from 24% to 96% over the years 1996-2007. However| the relationships of stopover behaviour (transience and departure probability) to local weather (wind and precipitation) and to regional climatic fluctuations were similar across three distinct species groups and for birds of different fuel-loads| indicating the potential for both immediate (day-to-day) and long-term environmental influences (spanning several seasons). This cross-scale approach contributes valuable information toward the conservation of migrants in the face of a changing climate by (i) quantifying environmental influences on stopover behaviour in broad temporal and geographic contexts| and (ii) demonstrating largely parallel interannual variation in stopover site-use among birds with contrasting migratory timing and strategies. 9626,2009,3,4,CSD| a database of microbial strains for carbon fixation,The CSD database contains a list of microorganisms involved in biological fixation of carbon dioxide. The database allows managing of information related to carbon dioxide fixation utilizing microbes belonging to four different classes i.e. microorganisms| genus listing| mechanisms and literature. The database can help in devising biological strategies for reducing carbon dioxide from the environment. It can also serve as comprehensive knowledgebase to search the microbes capable of utilizing carbon dioxide. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10005,2009,2,4,Current status and future prospects of Zoige Marsh in Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Zoige Marsh| located in the Northeastern Qianghai-Tibet Plateau| is the largest highland marsh in the world. The marsh is one of the hotspots for biodiversity| harboring many endemic and endangered species| including Grus nigricollis| the only plateau crane. Zoige Marsh has a large area of high-quality grasslands| serving as the fifth largest livestock base in China| and it is also the major water source to the headstream of the Yellow River. However| due to global warming and unwise use of the marsh resources| including ditching for grassland enlargement| peat exploitation| and livestock grazing| since the 1970s| Zoige Marsh has suffered severe ecosystem degradations such as vegetation recessive succession| biodiversity loss| soil deterioration| and rodent disasters. It is therefore imperative to restore the damaged marsh. We propose in this paper that ecological engineering and livestock population control must be taken as measures for ecological restoration and biodiversity protection. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9564,2009,3,4,Current Technology and Future Aspect on CO(2) Mitigation in Japanese Steel Industry,Japanese steel industry has been promoting significant efforts to decrease CO(2) emissions| in addition to the active introduction of a lot of energy-saving processes in the past. Energy saving systems like CDQ in coke oven and TRT in blast furnace have been perfectly introduced into the steel works. The inner volume of the blast furnace in Japan was frequently enlarged over 5000 m(3) at the relining of blast furnace to increase production rate until 2008. The low reducing rate operation in large blast furnace is presently required for decreasing carbon input to steel works. In parallel to these efforts| as the realistic solution to reach the target Of CO(2) reduction declared in the voluntary plan based on Kyoto Protocol| Japanese steel industry is planning to use CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) and emission trading to compensate the difference between the target and the actual value. Currently| the middle-term or long-term numerical target to cut greenhouse gas emissions is a hot issue in the next step. From the long-term perspective| new project has started to develop the new burden production process for low carbon blast furnace. Moreover| the aggressive utilization of hydrogen derived from coke oven gas and the CO(2) capture process have been investigated as the large-scale project included in the Cool Earth-Innovative Energy Technology Program of the government plan. These recent situations described above in Japan are described in this report. 10330,2009,2,4,Current trends of agroclimatic indices applied to grapevine in Tuscany (Central Italy),Global warming is causing wide changes in atmospheric events with critical impacts on vegetations. Indeed| an increase of temperature variability has been observed| primarily due to increase in warm extremes. Temperature rising will lead to several consequences. For example| growing season lengthening is observed| but at the same time| plants grow faster| thus giving productions low in quality and quantity. Finally. concerning the Mediterranean region| it is evaluated that a greater water request is needed for irrigation. Besides| high maximum temperatures during summer months may cause drop in quality. On the opposite| concerning winter risks| earlier bud break will increase late frost risks. The aim of this study is to cover some aspects of warming temperature and phenological responses oil grapevine ill central Italy. The research is focused oil climatic and agroclimatic indices calculated in 1955-2007 period. Regression trend| linear or non-parametric| depending oil the distribution of data. was fitted to provide pictures of changes that have occurred. 9410,2009,2,4,Cyanobacteria dominance: Quantifying the effects of climate change,An increase in cyanobacteria bloom formation within lakes has been forecasted as a result of global warming. We investigated the particular physical and chemical thresholds for cyanobacteria performance in a lake model system| the polymictic eutrophic Muggelsee| which has been affected by significant warming trends and substantial reductions in external nutrient load. To identify key physical and nutrient thresholds favoring cyanobacterial performance| we applied classification tree analysis to water temperature| Schmidt stability| oxygen| pH| nutrients (including phosphorus| nitrogen| and their relative ratios)| and zooplankton abundance during periods of summer thermal stratification. Although total phosphorus (TP) concentration was the principal force driving cyanobacteria contribution to total algal mass| climate-induced changes in the thermal regime| rather than direct temperature effects| positively influenced cyanobacteria dominance. Stratification periods exceeding 3 weeks and exhibiting a Schmidt stability of >44 g cm cm(-2) favored cyanobacteria proliferation within a critical TP concentration range (70-215 mu g L(-1)). The dominating genera Aphanizomenon| Anabaena| and Microcystis achieved the highest biomass in cases in which total nitrogen concentrations exceeded 1.29 mg L(-1)| stratified conditions exceeded a duration of 3 weeks| and TP concentrations exceeded 215 mu g L(-1)| respectively. Given the observed broad range of TP thresholds within which climate warming enhances the probability of cyanobacteria dominance| the incidence of cyanobacteria blooms will certainly increase in many lakes under future climate scenarios. 10341,2009,4,4,Data assimilation for crop yield and CO(2) fixation monitoring in Asia by a photosynthetic sterility model using satellites and meteorological data,This study assimilates satellite and meteorological data to monitor grain yields and CO(2) fixation by developing a photosynthetic-sterility model that integrates the Asian scale of meteorological data such as solar radiation| air temperature effects on photosynthesis and the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with a Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT) VEGETATION sensor. Monitoring crop production using remotely sensed and daily meteorological data can provide an important early warning regarding poor crop production to Asian countries with their still-growing populations. Grain production monitoring would support orderly crisis management to maintain food security in Asia| which is facing climate fluctuations through this century of global warming. A decision-tree method classifies the distribution of crop fields in Asia using Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and SPOT VEGETATION data| which include the NDVI and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI). The air temperature data are available from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The solar radiation data are supplied by the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) Centre and re-analysis data| by the NCEP and ECMWF. This study provides daily distributions of the photosynthesis rate| which is the CO(2) fixation in Asian areas combined with the distribution of grain fields. 9656,2009,4,2,Decadal Fluctuations in Planetary Wave Forcing Modulate Global Warming in Late Boreal Winter,The warming trend in global surface temperatures over the last 40 yr is clear and consistent with anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Over the last 2 decades| this trend appears to have accelerated. In contrast to this general behavior| however| here it is shown that trends during the boreal cold months in the recent period have developed a marked asymmetry between early winter and late winter for the Northern Hemisphere| with vigorous warming in October-December followed by a reversal to a neutral/cold trend in January-March. This observed asymmetry in the cold half of the boreal year is linked to a two-way stratosphere-troposphere interaction| which is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere during late winter and is related to variability in Eurasian land surface conditions during autumn. This link has been demonstrated for year-to-year variability and used to improve seasonal time-scale winter forecasts; here| this coupling is shown to strongly modulate the warming trend| with implications for decadal-scale temperature projections. 10305,2009,3,4,Decisions to reduce greenhouse gases from agriculture and product transport: LCA case study of organic and conventional wheat,A streamlined hybrid life cycle assessment is conducted to compare the global warming potential (GWP) and primary energy use of conventional and organic wheat production and delivery in the US. Impact differences from agricultural inputs| grain farming| and transport processes are estimated. The GWP of a I kg loaf of organic wheat bread is about 30 g CO(2)-eq less than the conventional loaf. When organic wheat is shipped 420 km farther to market| organic and conventional wheat systems have similar impacts. These results can change dramatically depending on soil carbon accumulation and nitrous oxide emissions from the two systems. Key parameters and their variability are discussed to provide producers| wholesale and retail consumers| and policymakers metrics to align their decisions with low-carbon objectives. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9389,2009,4,4,Deep ocean heat uptake as a major source of spread in transient climate change simulations,Two main mechanisms can potentially explain the spread in the magnitude of global warming simulated by climate models: deep ocean heat uptake and climate feedbacks. Here| we show that deep oceanic heat uptake is a major source of spread in simulations of 21st century climate change. Models with deeper baseline polar mixed layers are associated with larger deep ocean warming and smaller global surface warming. Based on this result| we set forth an observational constraint on polar vertical oceanic mixing. This constraint suggests that many models may overestimate the efficiency of polar oceanic mixing and therefore may underestimate future surface warming. Thus to reduce climate change uncertainties at time-scales relevant for policy-making| improved understanding and modelling of oceanic mixing at high latitudes is crucial. Citation: Boe| J.| A. Hall| and X. Qu (2009)| Deep ocean heat uptake as a major source of spread in transient climate change simulations| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L22701| doi: 10.1029/2009GL040845. 9297,2009,4,4,Derivation of burn scar depths and estimation of carbon emissions with LIDAR in Indonesian peatlands,During the 1997/98 El Nino-induced drought peatland fires in Indonesia may have released 13-40% of the mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels. One major unknown in current peatland emission estimations is how much peat is combusted by fire. Using a light detection and ranging data set acquired in Central Kalimantan| Borneo| in 2007| one year after the severe peatland fires of 2006| we determined an average burn scar depth of 0.33 +/- 0.18 m. Based on this result and the burned area determined from satellite imagery| we estimate that within the 2.79 million hectare study area 49.15 +/- 26.81 megatons of carbon were released during the 2006 El Nino episode. This represents 10-33% of all carbon emissions from transport for the European Community in the year 2006. These emissions| originating from a comparatively small area (approximately 13% of the Indonesian peatland area)| underline the importance of peat fires in the context of green house gas emissions and global warming. In the past decade severe peat fires occurred during El Nino-induced droughts in 1997| 2002| 2004| 2006| and 2009. Currently| this important source of carbon emissions is not included in IPCC carbon accounting or in regional and global carbon emission models. Precise spatial measurements of peat combusted and potential avoided emissions in tropical peat swamp forests will also be required for future emission trading schemes in the framework of Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in developing countries. 863,2009,2,4,DESERTS AND DESERTIFICATION: CHALLENGES BUT ALSO OPPORTUNITIES,The UN decision to couple 'deserts' and 'desertification' in addressing the year 2006 (as well as the following decade) as 'Year (or Decade) of Deserts and Desertification' sends several wrong messages regarding both the nature of deserts as natural ecosystems and of desertification as a human-driven process that reduces the provision of ecosystem services of soil conservation and of biological productivity| specifically in non-desert areas| more than in desert ones. A new approach to addressing sustainable development in the drylands was presented in an international conference that took place at the end of the 'International Year' and hosted by the Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research in Sede Boqer| Israel. This approach (a) qualifies drylands as ecosystems whose biological productivity is constrained by water and hence it is naturally low compared to that of most other terrestrial ecosystems; (b) qualifies desertification as a further persistent reduction of productivity in the drylands brought about mainly through human impact mostly driven by population increase; (c) observes that within the drylands natural productivity linearly declines with aridity| and Suggests that sensitivity to impact linearly increases with aridity; (d) further Suggests that population density generates the impact| and observes that population density in drylands increases exponentially as aridity declines; and (e) Suggests that the product of the linear sensitivity and the exponential impact generates a desertification peak at the transition between non-desert drylands (where desertification and poverty are high) and the desert drylands (where both are very low). Given these| the Sede Boqer approach suggests that (a) rather than be construed as all adversity| desert drylands offer opportunities to their inhabitants since their environmental conditions are conducive for livelihoods mostly independent of the desert's very low productivity; this includes solar energy development and tourism| but also (counterintuitively!) desert aquaculture; (b) non-desert drylands| on the other hand| face a serious challenge of becoming desertified| mainly due to increasing populatiom and (c) global climate change further increases the success of alternative livelihoods in deserts| may create opportunities in some of the non-desert drylands too| but amplifies the challenges facing non-esert drylands people. Caution and prudence are required to meet these challenges| especially since currently socio-political measures are in shorter supply than technological fixes. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 9294,2009,3,2,Design and Evaluation of a Porous Burner for the Mitigation of Anthropogenic Methane Emissions,Methane constitutes 15% of total global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The mitigation of these emissions could have a significant near-term effect on slowing global warming| and recovering and burning the methane would allow a wasted energy resource to be exploited. The typically low and fluctuating energy content of the emission streams makes combustion difficulty however porous burners-an advanced combustion technology capable of burning low-calorific value fuels below the conventional flammability limit-are one possible mitigation solution. Here we discuss a pilot-scale porous burner designed for this purpose. The burner comprises a cylindrical combustion chamber filled with a porous bed of alumina saddles| combined with an arrangement of heat exchanger tubes for preheating the incoming emission stream. A computational fluid dynamics model was developed to aid in the design process. Results illustrating the burner's stable operating range and behavior are presented: stable ultralean combustion is demonstrated at natural gas concentrations as low as 2.3 vol%| with transient combustion at concentrations down to 1.1 vol%; the system is comparatively stable to perturbations in the operating conditions| and emissions of both carbon monoxide and unburned hydrocarbons are negligible. Based on this pilot-scale demonstration| porous burners show potential as a methane mitigation technology. 9897,2009,3,3,Design-based life cycle assessment of hazardous air pollutant control options at pulp and paper mills: a comparison of thermal oxidation to photocatalytic oxidation and biofiltration,BACKGROUND: The forest products industry produces valuable industrial chemicals| wood products| and consumer goods| but is also responsible for the emission of significant quantities of hazardous air pollutants. Although many air pollution control options are available| little is known about the overall environmental impacts of implementing each option. Therefore| a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted to compare energy and raw material inputs| air emissions| and environmental impacts associated with construction and operation of two air pollution control systems: regenerative thermal oxidation (RTO) with wet scrubbing and photocatalytic oxidation (PCO) with biofiltration. RESULTS: LCA results indicated that environmental impacts to resource depletion| photochemical oxidant formation| and acidification were 20% higher for the use of a RTO-scrubber than for the PCO-biofilter. In addition| at least 25% of the RTO impacts were due to infrastructure requirements. However| the PCO-biofilter system was responsible for more environmental impact in categories of global warming and human toxicity| because of the packing materials required and the electricity use for the PCO reactor. CONCLUSIONS: The PCO-biofilter system could be a promising| environmentally-friendly alternative to traditional RTO devices| provided that this system is modified to decrease resource and energy demands. (C) 2008 Society of Chemical Industry 10303,2009,4,4,Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon - Recent progress and state of affairs,East Asia is dominated by a typical monsoon climate. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) exhibits considerable variability on a wide range of time scales during the 20th century. A substantial portion is the multi-decadal variability. Over the recent decades| the EASM has been weakening from the end of the 1970s which results in a "southern China flood and northern China drought" rainfall pattern. Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the weakening tendency has been a challenge for climate research community. Examinations on the long-term change of the EASM during the 20(th) century find no significant trends. indicating the pronounced weakening tendency of the EASM in recent decades is unprecedented. After documenting the prominent features of the interdecadal climate transition| a review is presented in this paper on the proposed explanations to the observed changes. The proposed factors include the Indian Ocean and far western Pacific warming| the tropical central-eastern Pacific warming| the weakening sensible heat source over the Tibetan Plateau| and the aerosol forcing| as well as internal variability. While parts of the monsoon circulation changes can be explained in terms of the proposed mechanisms| it is still beyond the scope of our current knowledge to present a complete picture. Much remains to be learned about the mechanisms that produce such multi-decadal changes in the EASM| but it seems still unclear whether human activities and global warming are playing significant roles. 10125,2009,4,4,Detection of foliage conditions and disturbance from multi-angular high spectral resolution remote sensing,Disturbance of forest ecosystems| an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle| has become a focus of research over recent years| as global warming is about to increase the frequency and severity of natural disturbance events. Remote sensing offers unique opportunities for detection of forest disturbance at multiple scales: however| spatially and temporally continuous mapping of non-stand replacing disturbance remains challenging. First| most high spatial resolution satellite sensors have relatively broad spectral ranges with bandwidths unsuitable for detection of subtle| stress induced| features in canopy reflectance. Second| directional and background reflectance effects| induced by the interactions between the sun-sensor geometry and the observed canopy surface| make up-scaling of empirically derived relationships between changes in spectral reflectance and vegetation conditions difficult. Using an automated tower based spectroradiometer| we analyse the interactions between canopy level reflectance and different stages of disturbance occurring in a mountain pine beetle infested lodgepole pine stand in northern interior British Columbia| Canada| during the 2007 growing season. Directional reflectance effects were modelled using a bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) acquired from high frequency multi-angular spectral observations. Key wavebands for observing changes in directionally corrected canopy spectra were identified using discriminant analysis and highly significant correlations between canopy reflectance and field measured disturbance levels were found for several broad and narrow waveband vegetation indices (for instance| r(NDVI)(2)=0-90: r(CHL3)(2)=0.85; p < 0.05). Results indicate that multi-angular observations are useful for extraction of disturbance related changes in canopy reflectance| in particular the temporally and spectrally dense data detected changes in chlorophyll content well. This study will help guide and inform future efforts to map forest health conditions at landscape and over increasingly coarse scales. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 9326,2009,4,4,Determination of elemental carbon in lake sediments using a thermal-optical transmittance (TOT) method,An improved chemical oxidation pretreatment method has been developed for the determination of elemental carbon (EC) [also known as black carbon (BC) or soot] in lake sediments| using a thermal-optical transmittance (TOT) carbon analyzer. The method employs six steps: (1) removal of carbonates by treatment with HCl; (2) removal of silicates by treatment with HF + HCl; (3) removal of any remaining carbonates by treatment with HCl: (4) removal of humic acids by treatment with NaOH; and (5) oxidation of kerogens by K(2)Cr(2)O(7) + H(2)SO(4). A critical step of zinc chloride treatment was added: this apparently changes EC's morphology and enhances retention on quartz fiber filter| resulting in several-fold increased chemical yield. EC was determined using the TOT method with modified combustion timings. Carbon black (acetylene) and four NIST standard reference materials (SRMs) were used for quality control| and to assess the precision of the analysis. The EC recoveries from 18 carbon black samples varied from 90 to 111%| with a mean value of 99 +/- 6%. The high EC recoveries confirmed the validity of the method. Char reference materials (i.e. chestnut wood and grass char) were used to determine potential contribution to EC in our measurements. The char references containing about 700 mg total organic carbon (OC) contributed similar to 1.5% EC. The measured EC values from four NIST standards were 17.0 +/- 0.6| 24.2 +/- 3.2| 5.6. and 1.9 +/- 0.1 mg g(dw)(-1) for SRM-1648| SRM-1649a| SRM-1941b and SRM-8704| respectively. These values in SRMs were in agreement (<+/- 4%) with the previously reported values. The method was applied to determine the EC in sediment cores from an urban lake and a remote mountain lake in the Northeastern United States. The EC concentrations in two lakes mimic the model EC emissions from the industrial revolution in United States. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10237,2009,2,4,Determination of total ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of two glaciers in the Hohe Tauern region| Eastern Alps| from GPR data,Global warming is causing an apparent rapid retreat of many glaciers worldwide. In addition to mass-balance investigation| the determination and monitoring of total glacial ice volume and ice-thickness distribution are important parameters for understanding the interactions between climate and the complex glacier system. Because of spatially irregular and sparse datasets| scaling of volume and ice-thickness distribution is often a challenging problem. This study focuses on two small (<2 km(2)) temperate glaciers in the Hohe Tauern (Eastern Alps) region of central Austria. The period 2003-04 saw the first use of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to determine the total ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of the two glaciers. A centre frequency of 20 MHz was used in point measuring mode. Despite variable data quality| bedrock reflections up to depths of >100 m were identified in the data. The acquired GPR data are irregularly distributed and the spatial density is too low to calculate reasonable bedrock topography with standard interpolation approaches. Thus one main focus of this study was to develop an appropriate interpolation technique. Eventually| kriging technique and a glacial mechanically based interpolation parameter were used. Mean calculated ice thicknesses for the two investigated glaciers are 40-50 m| with a maximum of 150-165 m. No direct validation data are available| so different considerations support the computed bedrock topography. 960,2009,2,4,Development and implementation of coral reef biocriteria in US jurisdictions,Coral reefs worldwide are declining at an alarming rate and are under continuous threat from both natural and anthropogenic environmental stressors. Warmer sea temperatures attributed to global climate change and numerous human activities at local scales place these valuable ecosystems at risk. Reefs provide numerous services| including shoreline protection| fishing| tourism and biological diversity| which are lost through physical damage| overfishing| and pollution. Pollution can be controlled under provisions of the Clean Water Act| but these options have not been fully employed to protect coral reefs. No U.S. jurisdiction has implemented coral reef biocriteria| which are narrative or quantitative water quality standards based on the condition of a biological resource or assemblage. The President's Ocean Action Plan directs the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to develop biological assessment methods and biological criteria for evaluating and maintaining the health of coral reef ecosystems. EPA has formed the Coral Reef Biocriteria Working Group (CRBWG) to foster development of coral reef biocriteria through focused research| evaluation and communication among Agency partners and U.S. jurisdictions. Ongoing CRBWG activities include development and evaluation of a rapid bioassessment protocol for application in biocriteria programs; development of a survey design and monitoring strategy for the U.S. Virgin Islands; comprehensive reviews of biocriteria approaches proposed by states and territories; and assembly of data from a variety of monitoring programs for additional metrics. Guidance documents are being prepared to assist U.S. jurisdictions in reaching protective and defensible biocriteria. 9789,2009,2,4,Development and validation of rice evapotranspiration model based on Terra/MODIS remotely sensed data,The simple model was developed to estimate daily evapotranspiration (ET) by using Terra-MODIS remotely sensed data. The satellite ET model was based on the Hargreaves model which requires only two climatic variables; temperature and incident solar radiation. By using the satellite ET model| temperature in terms of LST(RS) was directly calculated from brightness temperatures of MODIS channels 31 and 32; while incident solar radiation in terms of APAR(RS) was calculated from NDVI(RS) computed from reflectance of MODIS channels 1 and 2. ET calibrated from the model was experimented to assess sensitivity of ET on rice grown under increased temperature (2 degrees C.) The results showed that modeled ET had a good agreement with Penman-based ET| a typical model widely used for estimating irrigated water supply. ET(RS) models showed a better correlation with LST(RS') compared to that with NDVI(RS). The experimental pots results showed that ET amount based on developed model was sufficient for water consumption of rice. ET computed from the model ranged from 3.43 to 5.56 mm/day. However| from rice's height and leaf area growth data| it was found that the optimal amount of water supply was between 3.65-4.57 mm/day| indicating 6-17% error of the developed model. 9970,2009,3,3,Development of a High-Pressure Air-Insulated 72/84-kV Disconnecting Switch Corresponding to Bus-Transfer Current Switching,SF(6) gas has excellent dielectric strength and current interruption performance. For these reasons| it has been widely used for gas-insulated switchgear (GIS). Today| such global environmental problems as global warming are important issues of concern. SF(6) gas is known as a greenhouse gas with a long atmospheric lifetime. and has global warming potential of 23|900. SF(6)-free 72-kV GIS was recently developed by using high-pressure air and a gas/solid hybrid structure. But an alternating current disconnecting switch (DS) has yet to be developed thus making this type of SF(6)-Free 72-kV GIS unsuitable for double bus-bar application. Consequently| the development of a high-pressure air-insulated DS corresponding to bus-transfer current switching has been expected. The bus-transfer current is the highest anion-all current interruption requirements for the DS. To develop an alternating current DS| efforts Must be Made to reduce arcing damage to the electrode. This paper describes the fundamental characteristics of current interruption in the plain break type and the magnetic field driven type. Then| average arcing time of the magnetic field driven type was estimated by magnetic flux density. Finally| two types of DS| which were a high-speed plain break and a low-speed magnetic field driven| were confirmed to comply with bus-transfer current switching requirements on JEC standard. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals| Inc. Electr Eng Jpn| 167(2): 48-55| 2009; Published online in Wiley InterScience(www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/eej.20595 9455,2009,3,4,Development of operational strategies to remove carbon dioxide in photobioreactors,The objective of this work was to evaluate different operational strategies for photobioreactors to remove carbon dioxide using the cyanobacteria| Aphanothece microscopica Nageli. Two types of reactor configuration| bubble column and airlift were evaluated under three different operational conditions to treat air containing 15% carbon dioxide: simple operation| air recirculation and two sequential reactors. The results obtained showed that the reactor configuration and the operational mode were both determinant criteria for the performance of photobioreactors in the biological conversion of carbon dioxide. Operations with air recirculation showed possibilities for use in small-scale operations| but two-stage sequential photobioreactors (elimination capacity and removal efficiency of 12.217 g(carbon)/m(reactor)(3) day and 52.5%| respectively) were shown to be the operational mode with greatest potential for application on an industrial scale by the increased removal efficiency. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9771,2009,3,4,Development of SuperSmart Grids for a more efficient utilisation of electricity from renewable sources,If Europe is serious about reaching its target to keep global mean temperature increase below 2 degrees C| it must strive for a 100% renewable electricity system by 2050. The SuperSmart Grid approach combines what is often perceived as two exclusive alternatives: wide area power generation and decentralised power generation. We argue that by combining these| in fact| complementary measures| it is possible to address the crucial issue of renewable generation-fluctuating supply-in a comprehensive as well as in a technologically and economically viable manner. Thus| the SuperSmart Grid simultaneously can contribute to energy security| climate security| social security| and national security. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10337,2009,2,4,Diaspore traits discriminate good from weak colonisers on high-elevation summits,The richness of plant species in Swiss alpine-nival summits increased during the climate warming of the 20th century. Thirty-seven summits (2797-3418 m a.s.l.) with both old (similar to 1900-1920) and recent (similar to 2000) plant inventories were used to test whether biological species traits can explain the observed rates of summit colonisation. Species were classified into two groups: good colonisers (colonising five or more summits) and weak colonisers (fewer than five new summits). We compared species traits related to growth| reproduction and dispersal between these two groups and between the good colonisers and a group of high alpine grassland species. The observed colonisation pattern was subsequently compared with a simulated random colonisation pattern. The distribution of new species on the summits was not random| and 16 species exhibited a colonisation rate higher than expected by chance. Taraxacum alpinum aggr. and Cardamine resedifolia were the best colonisers. Results showed that diaspore traits enhancing long-distance dispersal were more frequent among good colonisers than among weak colonisers. Good colonisers were mostly characterised by pappi or narrow wings on their diaspores. Both groups were able to grow on soils more bare and rocky than species from the alpine grasslands. All other biological traits that we considered were similar among the three alpine species groups. These results are important for improving predictive models of species distribution under climate change. (C) 2009 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 1021,2009,2,4,Diego Garcia: British-American Legal Black Hole in the Indian Ocean?,Environmental risks from US military construction on the atoll of Diego Garcia (British Indian Ocean Territory) since 1971 include damage caused by large-scale 'coral mining'| the introduction of invasive alien plant species| continuous transits of nuclear material and unreported major fuel spills; these risks are now compounded by those of sea-level rise and ocean acidification due to global climate change. The US and UK governments have evaded accountability by way of a persistent 'black hole' strategy| contending that some national laws and international treaties for the protection of human rights and the environment do not apply to the island-a position confirmed by a controversial appellate judgment of the House of Lords in October 2008| essentially relying on 'prerogative' colonial law. This article draws attention to the fallacy of the black-hole syndrome| and to its potentially fatal consequences for the British claim to a 200-mile environment protection zone in the Chagos Archipelago. 989,2009,2,4,Different responses of different altitudes surrounding Taklimankan Desert to global climate change,Chongce Ice Cap (35 degrees 14'N| 81 degrees 07'E)| located in the south margin of Taklimakan Desert| West Kunlun Mts. of China was sampled by coring in 1992| and this provides us with climate proxy of high altitudes (6|530 m). Through analyzing the weather observation stations surrounding Taklimakan Desert| the climate record of Hotan station was chosen to be the representative of low altitudes. Wavelet analysis were used to investigate the climatic variations of patterns| cycles and frequencies of different altitudes from 1954 to 1992| and different responses of different altitude surrounding Taklimakan Desert to global warming were recorded: (1) coherent decline of snow accumulation rate and dust deposition of high altitude recorded in Chongce ice core; (2) coherent increase of summer half-year precipitation and SAT of Hotan; (3) consistent variation tendency between dust deposit recorded in Chongce ice core and Hotan spring sandstorm days; (4) opposite variation tendency between Hotan precipitation and Chongce ice core snow accumulation rate and consistent cycles in general. By analyzing the mechanism of different responses| the predominant factors were determined of different altitudes: (1) at the low altitude| the vapor supply is predominant| and more vapor supplying means more precipitation; (2) at the high altitude| probably the population of dust aerosols which act as cloud ice nuclei in high altitude takes advantage over the vapor supply to affect the precipitation| and so the dust aerosol population reducing results in the wet deposition being reduced| thus the dust aerosol is the predominant factor. 10109,2009,2,4,Differential and interactive effects of temperature and photoperiod on budburst and carbon reserves in two co-occurring Mediterranean oaks,Effects of temperature and photoperiod and their interactions on budburst and on the use of carbon reserves were examined in two Mediterranean oaks differing in wood anatomy and leaf habit. Seedlings of Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (evergreen and diffuse-porous wood) and Q. faginea (semi-deciduous and ring-porous wood) were grown under two temperatures (12 and 19 degrees C) and two photoperiods (10 and 16 h) in a factorial experiment. In the 16 h photoperiod at 19 degrees C| photosynthesis was suppressed in half of the seedlings by covering leaves with aluminium foil. The concentration of soluble sugars| starch and lipids in leaves| stems and roots was assessed before and after budburst. Under the 12 degrees C treatment (mean current temperature in early spring in the Iberian Peninsula)| budburst in Q. faginea occurred earlier than in Q. ilex. Higher temperature promoted earlier budburst in both species| mostly under the 16 h photoperiod. This response was less pronounced in Q. faginea because its budburst was also controlled by photoperiod| and because this species needs to construct a new ring of xylem before budburst to supply its growth demands. Therefore| dates of budburst of the two species became closer to each other in the warmer treatment| which might alter competitive relations between the species with changing climate. While Q. ilex relied on carbon reserves for budburst| Q. faginea relied on both carbon reserves and current photoassimilates. The different responses of the two Quercus species to temperature and photoperiod related more to xylem structure than to the source of carbon used for budburst. 764,2009,2,4,Differential Effects of Pseudomonas mendocina and Glomus intraradices on Lettuce Plants Physiological Response and Aquaporin PIP2 Gene Expression Under Elevated Atmospheric CO(2) and Drought,Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) symbiosis and plant-growth-promoting rhizobacterium (PGPR) can alleviate the effects of water stress in plants| but it is unknown whether these benefits can be maintained at elevated CO(2). Therefore| we carried out a study where seedlings of Lactuca sativa were inoculated with the AM fungus (AMF) Glomus intraradices N.C. Schenk & G.S. Sm. or the PGPR Pseudomonas mendocina Palleroni and subjected to two levels of watering and two levels of atmospheric CO(2) to ascertain their effects on plant physiological parameters and gene expression of one PIP aquaporin in roots. The inoculation with PGPR produced the greatest growth in lettuce plants under all assayed treatments as well as the highest foliar potassium concentration and leaf relative water content under elevated [CO(2)] and drought. However| under such conditions| the PIP2 gene expression remained almost unchanged. G. intraradices increased significantly the AMF colonization| foliar phosphorus concentration and leaf relative water content in plants grown under drought and elevated [CO(2)]. Under drought and elevated [CO(2)]| the plants inoculated with G. intraradices showed enhanced expression of the PIP2 gene as compared to P. mendocina or control plants. Our results suggest that both microbial inoculation treatments could help to alleviate drought at elevated [CO(2)]. However| the PIP2 gene expression was increased only by the AMF but not by the PGPR under these conditions. 10142,2009,2,4,Differential modulation of eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) disease parasites by the El-NiA +/- o-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation,The eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) is affected by two protozoan parasites| Perkinsus marinus which causes Dermo disease and Haplosporidium nelsoni which causes MSX (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) disease. Both diseases are largely controlled by water temperature and salinity and thus are potentially sensitive to climate variations resulting from the El NiA +/- o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| which influences climate along the Gulf of Mexico coast| and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)| which influences climate along the Atlantic coast of the United States. In this study| a 10-year time series of temperature and salinity and P. marinus infection intensity for a site in Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico coast and a 52-year time series of air temperature and freshwater inflow and oyster mortality from Delaware Bay on the Atlantic coast of the United States were analyzed to determine patterns in disease and disease-induced mortality in C. virginica populations that resulted from ENSO and NAO climate variations. Wavelet analysis was used to decompose the environmental| disease infection intensity and oyster mortality time series into a time-frequency space to determine the dominant modes of variability and the time variability of the modes. For the Louisiana site| salinity and Dermo disease infection intensity are correlated at a periodicity of 4 years| which corresponds to ENSO. The influence of ENSO on Dermo disease along the Gulf of Mexico is through its effect on salinity| with high salinity| which occurs during the La NiA +/- a phase of ENSO at this location| favoring parasite proliferation. For the Delaware Bay site| the primary correlation was between temperature and oyster mortality| with a periodicity of 8 years| which corresponds to the NAO. Warmer temperatures| which occur during the positive phase of the NAO| favor the parasites causing increased oyster mortality. Thus| disease prevalence and intensity in C. virginica populations along the Gulf of Mexico coast is primarily regulated by salinity| whereas temperature regulates the disease process along the United States east coast. These results show that the response of an organism to climate variability in a region is not indicative of the response that will occur over the entire range of a particular species. This has important implications for management of marine resources| especially those that are commercially harvested. 951,2009,2,4,Differential Responses of Marsh Arthropods to Rainfall-Induced Habitat Loss,Alejandro D. Canepuccia| Armando Cicchino| Alicia Escalante| Andres Novaro| and Juan P. Isacch (2009) Differential responses of marsh arthropods to rainfall-induced habitat loss. Zoological Studies 48(2): 174-183. The rainfall regime of the Pampas region of Argentina has increased over its historical mean during the last several decades. In this paper we used the unusually rainy year of 2002 to explore possible effects on the abundances and diversity of terrestrial arthropods due to reductions in suitable coastal marsh habitats due to flooding in the eastern Pampas. We assessed 1) the effects of changes in monthly cumulative rainfall totals on habitat availability and diversity| 2) the impacts of changes in habitat availability and diversity on ground arthropods| particularly on beetles species| and 3) arthropod responses to changes in habitat availability according to their dispersal ability| and among beetles species| according to their habitat specialization and trophic group. The increase in rain reduced the areal extent of terrestrial habitats through flooding| and as a consequence| reduced habitat diversity. These changes at the landscape level influenced the abundances and diversity of arthropods (assessed by pitfall traps). The most affected species were those with poor dispersal capabilities| which may have been due to their weaker ability to expand their home range. The most affected among beetle species were those that are habitat specialists| which may have been due to shifts in the habitat to which they are adapted| and at higher trophic levels| an indirect effect| in terms of habitat loss| of a reduction in prey availability was added. Moreover| our results exemplify how large-scale processes like changes in rainfall due to global climate change can affect local ecological patterns| such as fluctuations in abundances and diversity of arthropods in wetlands. http://zoolstud.sinica.edu.tw/Journals/48.2/174.pdf 10074,2009,3,4,Direct coupling of an electrolyser to a solar PV system for generating hydrogen,Hydrogen as an energy currency| carrier and storage medium may be a key component of the solution to problems of global warming| poor air quality and dwindling reserves of liquid hydrocarbon fuels. Hydrogen is a flexible storage medium and can be generated by the electrolysis of water. It is particularly advantageous if an electrolyser may be simply and efficiently coupled to a source of renewable electrical energy. This paper examines direct coupling of a polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyser to a matched solar photovoltaic (PV) source for hydrogen generation and storage. Such direct coupling with minimum interfacing electronics would lead to substantial cost reduction and thereby enhance the economic viability of solar-hydrogen systems. The electrolyser is designed for fail-safe operation with multiple levels of safety and operational redundancy. A control system in the electrolyser unit provides for disconnection when required and for auto-start in the morning and auto shut-down at night| simultaneously addressing the goals of minimum energy loss and maximum safety. The PV system is a 2.4 kW array (20.4 m(2) total area) comprising 30| 12 V| 80 W| Solarex polycrystalline modules in a series-parallel configuration. The integrated system has been operated for approximately 60 days over a 4-month period from September 2007 to January 2008 with many periods of unattended operation for multiple days| experiencing weather ranging from hot and sunny (above 40 degrees C) to cool and cloudy. The principle and practicality of direct coupling of a suitably matched PV array and PEM electrolyser have been successfully demonstrated. Details of electrolyser operation coupled to a PV array along with modelling work to match current-voltage characteristics of the electrolyser and PV system are described. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of international Association for Hydrogen Energy. All rights reserved. 10196,2009,4,4,Direct evidence of the feedback between climate and weathering,Long-term climate moderation is commonly attributed to chemical weathering; the higher the temperature and precipitation the faster the weathering rate. Weathering releases divalent cations to the ocean via riverine transport where they promote the drawdown of CO(2) from the atmosphere by the precipitation and subsequent burial of carbonate minerals. To test this widely-held hypothesis| we performed a field study determining the weathering rates of 8 nearly pristine north-eastern Iceland river catchments with varying glacial cover over 44 years. The mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of these catchments varied by 3.2 to 4.5 degrees C and 80 to 530%| respectively during the study period. Statistically significant linear positive correlations were found between mean annual temperature and chemical weathering in all 8 catchments and between mean annual temperature and both mechanical weathering and runoff in 7 of the 8 catchments. For each degree of temperature increase| the runoff| mechanical weathering flux| and chemical weathering fluxes in these catchments are found to increase from 6 to 16%| 8 to 30%| and 4 to 14% respectively| depending on the catchment. In contrast| annual precipitation is less related to the measured fluxes; statistically significant correlations between annual precipitation and runoff| mechanical weathering| and chemical weathering were found for 3 of the least glaciated catchments. Mechanical and chemical weathering increased with time in all catchments over the 44 year period. These correlations were statistically significant for only 2 of the 8 catchments due to scatter in corresponding annual runoff and average annual temperature versus time plots. Taken together| these results 1) demonstrate a significant feedback between climate and Earth surface weathering| and 2) suggest that weathering rates are currently increasing with time due to global warming. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9873,2009,5,3,Direct measurements of chemical composition of shock-induced gases from calcite: an intense global warming after the Chicxulub impact due to the indirect greenhouse effect of carbon monoxide,Shock-induced devolatilization in hypervelocity impacts has been considered to play important roles in the atmospheric evolution and mass extinctions in Earth's history. Although the chemical composition of shock-induced gas species from carbonate rocks has been considered as a key to understand the environmental change after the Chicxulub impact| it has not been investigated extensively before. Here| we conduct direct measurements of the chemical composition (CO/CO(2)) of shock-induced gas species from calcite (CaCO(3)) using both a laser gun system and an isotopic labeling technique. The CO/CO(2) ratio of the shock-induced gas species from calcite is measured to be 2.02 +/- 0.41| suggesting that gaseous CO has been dominant in the shock-induced gases in the Chicxulub impact. In order to evaluate the environmental effects of the injection of CO gas| we investigated the post-impact atmospheric chemistry by incorporating our experimental results into a tropospheric photochemical model. The results suggest that an intense (2-5 degrees C) global warming would have lasted for several years after a Chicxulub-size impact mainly due to the greenhouse effect of tropospheric O(3)| which is produced via photochemical reactions associated with CO gas. Such an intense global warming could have damaged the biosphere in the mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-P) boundary. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 748,2009,3,3,Direct photosynthetic recycling of carbon dioxide to isobutyraldehyde,Global climate change has stimulated efforts to reduce CO(2) emissions. One approach to addressing this problem is to recycle CO(2) directly into fuels or chemicals using photosynthesis. Here we genetically engineered Synechococcus elongatus PCC7942 to produce isobutyraldehyde and isobutanol directly from CO(2) and increased productivity by overexpression of ribulose 1|5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco). Isobutyraldehyde is a precursor for the synthesis of other chemicals| and isobutanol can be used as a gasoline substitute. The high vapor pressure of isobutyraldehyde allows in situ product recovery and reduces product toxicity. The engineered strain remained active for 8 d and produced isobutyraldehyde at a higher rate than those reported for ethanol(1)| hydrogen(2) or lipid(3) production by cyanobacteria or algae. These results underscore the promise of direct bioconversion of CO(2) into fuels and chemicals| which bypasses the need for deconstruction of biomass. 10260,2009,2,4,Dirofilaria repens infestation in a sled dog kennel in the federal state of Brandenburg (Germany). Diagnosis and therapy of canine cutaneous dirofilariosis,Objective: In the recent years the significance of Dirofilaria (D.) repens has increased. The spread of this vector borne parasite from its traditional habitats to central and northern Europe is conceivable and probably due to global warming and international pet traffic. In one of 29 dogs kept in the same kennel microfilariae were diagnosed in a routine check up. Therefore the whole kennel was subject to further exploration to identify the filarial species| to monitor frequency of filarial infection and to evaluate a new filaricidal treatment protocol. Material and methods: Screening for circulating microfilariae was performed by Knott test. Blood samples containing microfilariae were used to determine the respective species by PCR. Infected dogs were treated with doxycycline and ivermectin. Results: Five dogs were infected with D. repens. Only one of them showed dermatological signs| whereas the other four dogs did not display any clinical symptoms. However| laboratory examination revealed significant changes of haematological parameters. Four and 19 weeks after termination of the six week treatment period no microfilariae could be detected in blood samples. Conclusion and clinical relevance: It appears that canine cutaneous filariasis (D. repens) may be transmitted in Germany and is thus not restricted to imported dogs or travelling pets only. Species determination| preferentially by PCR| is essential to select an appropriate treatment protocol. We could demonstrate that the combined therapy with doxycycline and ivermectin is suitable to achieve amicrofilariaemia in naturally infected dogs with cutaneous dirofilariosis. Since infestation of the definitive host produces clinical signs only in some cases| D. repens-infection is rarely perceived. Preventive measures to restrict the spread of the parasite should be discussed in areas where dogs are potentially at risk. In patients with pruritic nodular dermatitis D. repens should be taken into consideration for differential diagnosis. 787,2009,2,4,Dispersal and establishment both limit colonization during primary succession on a glacier foreland,Plant colonization can be limited by lack of seeds or by factors that reduce establishment. The role of seed limitation in community assembly is being increasingly recognized| but in early primary succession| establishment failure is still considered more important. We studied the factors limiting colonization on the foreland of Coleman Glacier| Washington| USA| to determine the importance of seed and establishment limitation during primary succession. We also evaluated the effects of seed predation| drought| and existing vegetation on establishment. We planted seeds of seven species into plots of four different ages and found evidence that both seed and establishment limitation are strong in early succession. We also found that seed and establishment limitation both remained high in later stages of succession. Seed predation reduced establishment for most species and some evidence suggested that drought and existing vegetation also limit establishment. Because both dispersal and establishment failure restrict colonization in recently exposed habitat| late-seral forest species may have a difficult time migrating upward in response to global climate change. 909,2009,3,3,Dissolution of Columbia River Basalt under mildly acidic conditions as a function of temperature: Experimental results relevant to the geological sequestration of carbon dioxide,Increasing attention is being focused on the rapid rise Of CO(2) levels in the atmosphere| which many believe to be the major contributing factor to global climate change. Sequestering CO(2) in deep geological formations has been proposed as a long-term solution to help stabilize CO(2) levels. However| before such technology can be developed and implemented| a basic understanding of H(2)O-CO(2) systems and the chemical interactions of these fluids with the host formation must be obtained. Important issues concerning mineral stability| reaction rates| and carbonate formation are all controlled or at least significantly impacted by the kinetics of rock-water reactions in mildly acidic| CO(2)-saturated solutions. Basalt has recently been identified as a potentially important host formation for geological sequestration. Dissolution kinetics of the Columbia River Basalt (CRB) were measured for a range of temperatures (25-90 degrees C) under mildly acidic to neutral pH conditions using the single-pass flow-through test method. Under anaerobic conditions| the normalized dissolution rates for CRB decrease with increasing pH (3 <= pH <= 7) with a slope| eta| of -0.15 +/- 0.01. Activation energy| E(a)| has been estimated at 32.0 +/- 2.4 kJ mol(-1). Dissolution kinetics measurements like these are essential for modeling the rate at which CO(2)-saturated fluids react with basalt and ultimately drive conversion rates to carbonate minerals in situ. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 9964,2009,3,3,Dissolution of Magnesium from Serpentine Mineral in Sulfuric Acid Solution,As the volume of CO(2) one of greenhouse gases linked to global warming| in the atmosphere increases| there has been an increasing interest in CO(2) sequestration. Aqueous carbonation| which involves the extraction of Mg from serpentine minerals and the subsequent carbonation reaction with CO(2) to forin the geologically stable mineral MgCO(3)| has been proposed as a promising CO| sequestration technology. This study investigates the dissolution of Mg from serpentine mineral in H(2)SO(4) solution. The study is part of a major research project aimed at developing an effective CO(2) sequestration technology using the serpentine mineral which is readily available in Korea. Complete dissolution of Mg from natural serpentine was achieved in 30 min at a temperature of 90 degrees C under 0.5 M H2SO4. The rate of dissolution of Mg was independent of the agitation speed at speeds above 300 rpm. The fraction of Mg dissolved from milled serpentine was found to be a little higher than that from natural serpentine up to 70 degrees C in 0.5 M H(2)SO(4). The Jander equation was used to explain the dissolution rate data. The rate of Mg dissolution seemed to be limited by diffusion through the thin channels formed between the silica layers in the serpentine particles. [doi:10.2320/matertrans.M2009019] 10217,2009,2,4,Distant riverine nutrient supply and local temperature drive the long-term phytoplankton development in a temperate coastal basin,Since 1984| salinity| temperature| phytoplankton biomass and nutrients have been monitored in the List Tidal Basin (northern Wadden Sea| Europe). Nutrient dynamics follow a clear seasonal pattern with high winter concentrations and low summer concentrations. Interannual phytoplankton dynamics in the basin apparently responded to both decreasing riverine nutrient loads and the prevailing temperature regime. The mean spring diatom biomass (as Chlorophyll a) was correlated with temperature and the highest biomass was reached after cold winters. Summer phytoplankton (May-September) gradually decreased and correlated with Total Nitrogen loads from the rivers Weser and Elbe debouching about 150 km south of the List Tidal Basin into the North Sea. During summer| the frequency of observations with low nitrate concentrations (<0.5 mu M) significantly increased. We conclude that the long-term development of the phytoplankton is driven by a combination of riverine nitrogen loads and temperature. We expect that global warming and decreasing nutrient loads will reduce the magnitude of phytoplankton blooms in the List Tidal Basin. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9821,2009,5,2,Distinguishing the influence of diagenesis on the paleoecological reconstruction of nannoplankton across the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum: An example from the Kerguelen Plateau| southern Indian Ocean,The Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM| ca. 55 Ma) is an abrupt| profound perturbation of climate and the carbon cycle associated with a massive injection of isotopically light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system. As such| it provides an analogue for understanding the interplay between phytoplankton and climate under modern anthropogenic global-warming conditions. However| the accompanying enhanced dissolution poses uncertainty on the reconstruction of the affected ecology and productivity. We present a high-resolution record of bulk isotopes and nannofossil absolute abundance from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1135 on the Kerguelen Plateau| Southern Indian Ocean to quantitatively constrain for the first time the influence of dissolution on paleoecological reconstruction. Our bulk-carbonate| isotope record closely resembles that of the classic PETM site at ODP Site 690 on the opposite side of the Antarctic continent| and its correlation with those from ODP Sites 690| 1262 and 1263 records allows recognition of 14 precessional cycles upsection from the onset of the carbon isotopic excursion (CIE). This| together with a full range of common Discoaster araneus and an abundance crossover between Fasciculithus and Zygrhablithus bijugatus| indicates the presence of the PETM at Site 1135| a poorly known record with calcareous fossils throughout the interval. The strong correlation between the absolute abundances of Chiasmolithus and coccolith assemblages reveals a dominant paleoecological signal in the poorly preserved fossil assemblages| while the influence of dissolution is only strong during the CIE. This suggests that r-selected taxa can preserve faithful ecological information even in the severely-altered assemblages studied here| and therefore provide a strong case for the application of nannofossils to paleoecological studies in better-preserved PETM sections. The inferred nannoplankton productivity drops abruptly at the CIE onset| but rapidly increases after the CIE peak| both of which may be driven by nutrient availability related to ocean stratification and vertical mixing due to changed sea-surface temperatures. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9562,2009,2,4,Distribution and habitats of Melanoides tuberculata (Muller| 1774) and M. victoriae (Dohrn| 1865) (Mollusca: Prosobranchia: Thiaridae) in South Africa,An account is given of the geographical distribution and habitats of Melanoides tuberculata (Muller| 1774) and M. victoriae (Dohrn| 1865) as reflected by the samples on record in the database of the National Freshwater Snail Collection (NFSC) of South Africa. About 30 species of Melanoides Occur in Africa of which only M. tuberculata is widespread. Melanoides tuberculata is also indigenous to India and the south-cast Asian mainland to northern Australia and was widespread in the present-day Sahara during the late Pleistocene-Holocene| but M. victoriae seems to be restricted to Southern Africa. Details of the habitats on record for each species| as well as mean altitude and mean annual air temperature and rainfall for each locality| were processed to determine chi-square and effect-size values. An integrated decision-tree analysis indicated that temperature| altitude and type of substratum were the most important factors of those investigated that played a significant role in establishing the geographical distribution of these species in South Africa. In view of the fact that M tuberculata can serve as intermediate host for a number of trematode species elsewhere in the world| it is recommended that the ability of the 2 local Melanoides species to act as intermediate hosts should be investigated. Due to the fact that the majority of sites from which these species were recovered were not since revisited| it is recommended that efforts should be made to update their geographical distribution and the results compared with the data in the database. The conservation status of these 2 species and the possible influence of global warming and climatic changes on their geographical distribution are briefly discussed. 962,2009,4,4,Distribution| rarity and habitats of three aquatic lichens on federal land in the US Pacific Northwest,In this study| the occurrence of Dermatocarpon meiophyllizum| Leptogium rivale and Peltigera hydrothyria on federal land in western Oregon and Washington| and northern California is documented using a large-scale random sampling approach amplified by historical site data| frequency| distribution and habitat "preferences|" including water quality| forest age and land use allocations. A total of 256 sites were surveyed| of which 216 were randomly selected. All three species were distributed throughout the study area in all three states| and mostly in interior mountain ranges. Only L. rivale was widespread| and both D. nielophylli2lini and P. hydrothyria appear to be rare in the region but can become locally common in some watersheds. All three lichens probably benefit from older streamside forests| but association with forest age was inconclusive at the watershed level. Federal protective land use allocations and Aquatic Conservation Strategy components appear to play a minor role in protecting existing populations for the three aquatic lichens. Climate factors appear to be of major importance to habitat suitability for the three aquatic lichens. Results from this Study suggest the following habitat summaries for the three aquatic lichens. Higher elevation| exposed streams with large rocks or bedrock appear to be important habitat for D. meiophyllizum. This lichen was also often found above the stream water level. Leptogium rivale was found most frequently in shallow| partially shaded streams and submerged or just above the water level. For P. hydrothyria| this study suggests that cool| partially shaded small Mountain streams are important habitat; however| this only appears to be habitat characteristics for this lichen from southern Washington and Southward in the Study area. In Washington's North Cascades and in to British Columbia| P. hydrothyria is often observed in colder| higher elevation exposed sites. Upper 95% confidence interval values for stream sites Suggests good water quality across the region: dissolved oxygen = 9.60 mg(-1)| conductivity = 78 mu S/cm| pH = 7.51| nitrogen 0.07 mg(-1) and phosphorus = 0.024 mg(-1). Benthic diatom-based indices suggest that these aquatic lichens are subject to siltation and high flow stream scouring. Results from this Study can be used to guide management in the face of global climate change and research needs are discussed. 811,2009,2,4,Disturbance and species displacement: different tolerances to stream drying and desiccation in a native and an invasive crayfish,P>1. Crayfish are among the most threatened taxa in the world and invasive crayfish are the primary cause of the decline of native crayfish. Most research has emphasised biotic interactions as the mechanism by which native crayfish are displaced by invasives| although crayfish occupy variable environments and the role of disturbance in facilitating crayfish invasion and displacement is understudied. 2. We compared tolerance to a disturbance| stream drying| in a native and invasive crayfish as a potential mechanism to explain their distribution. Our experiments and observations were conducted across scales| from laboratory environmental chambers to stream mesocosms to field sampling. We hypothesised that the invasive crayfish would be more tolerant of desiccation than the native| and that this physiological distinction between the two would be reflected in their distribution in relation to stream drying. 3. In the laboratory| the native crayfish Orconectes eupunctus was less tolerant of desiccation than the invasive Orconectes neglectus chaenodactylus| with all native crayfish dying within 2 days without water| while some of the invasive crayfish survived for nearly 2 weeks. Under simulated stream drying in mesocosms| only the native O. eupunctus survived less well than in a control. Field sampling demonstrated a significant negative relationship between O. eupunctus density and low summer flows| while O. neglectus density was positively associated with low summer flows. The greater resistance of O. neglectus to drying could| through priority effects| inhibit recolonisation by O. eupunctus once flow resumes. 4. Abiotic disturbances are potentially important to the displacement of native by invasive crayfish. Disturbance mediated displacement of aquatic species provides both an opportunity to conserve native species by maintaining or restoring habitat and disturbance regimes and is also a challenge due to increasing human water demand| flow regime alteration and global climate change. 930,2009,2,4,Divergent patterns of impact of environmental conditions on life history traits in two populations of a long-distance migratory bird,Some areas have experienced recent dramatic warming due to climate change| while others have shown no change at all| or even recent cooling. We predicted that patterns of selection on life history would differ between southern and northern European populations of a long-distance migratory bird| the barn swallow Hirundo rustica| because global patterns of weather as reflected by large-scale weather phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El NiA +/- o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have different effects on environmental conditions in different parts of the world frequented during the annual cycle. We investigated relationships between mean arrival date| dispersal rate and yearling survival rate among years| using two long-term population studies in Spain and Denmark. We found evidence of a difference in the effects of normalized difference vegetation index in North and West Africa on mean arrival date of male barn swallows| with the effect differing significantly between populations. Second| there was a significant interaction between ENSO and population on dispersal rate| showing that conditions in Africa during winter differentially affected dispersal in the two populations. Finally| the NAO index in winter had an effect on yearling survival that differed between populations. These findings highlight the divergent patterns of response to climate change among populations| and they suggest that climate change can differentially affect important life history traits with potential implications for maintenance of viable populations and gene flow among populations. 1026,2009,2,4,Diversity and functional groups dynamics affected by drought and fire in Patagonian grasslands,During 1998-1999 a severe drought occurred in northwestern Patagonia that provoked an extensive wildfire. We monitored vegetation cover and the soil seed bank to study the diversity and functional group gap dynamics in burned and unburned sites. Species were grouped into 3 functional groups: forbs| fugitive species| and annual grasses. Post-drought vegetation recovered quickly due to a rainy spring in the second year but decreased after a dry and warm spring in the third year. These patterns underline the close relationship that exists between phenological phases and meteorological variables. Drought decreased richness but did not affect the presence of stress-tolerant species| whereas fire increased richness by allowing the establishment of fugitive species. Species in the fugitive functional group may be fire adapted and depend on seed accumulation in the seed bank (storage effect) to coexist with other gap species. Forbs exhibited their highest vegetation cover and seed bank density in the unburned site. Global climate change suggests an increase in the frequency and amplitude of El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomena that| in northwestern Patagonia| are related to the occurrence of drought| fire| and changes in vegetation dynamics. 857,2009,2,4,Diversity of symbiotic algae of the genus Symbiodinium in scleractinian corals of the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea,Symbiotic algae (Symbiodinium sp.) in scleractinian corals are important in understanding how coral reefs will respond to global climate change. The present paper reports on the diversity of Symbiodinium sp. in 48 scleractinian coral species from 25 genera and 10 families sampled from the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea| which were identified with the use of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) of the nuclear ribosomal DNA large subunit gene (rDNA). The results showed that: (i) Symbiodinium Clade C was the dominant zooxanthellae in scleractinian corals in the Xisha Islands; (ii) Symbiodinium Clade D was found in the corals Montipora aequituberculata| Galaxea fascicularis| and Plerogyra sinuosa; and (iii) both Symbiodinium Clades C and D were found simultaneously in Montipora digitata| Psammocora contigua| and Galaxeafascicularis. A poor capacity for symbiosis polymorphism| as uncovered by RFLP| in the Xisha Islands indicates that the scleractinian corals have low adaptability to environmental changes. Further studies are needed to investigate zooxanthellae diversity using other molecular markers. 9855,2009,4,3,Do lagoons near concentrated animal feeding operations promote nitrous oxide supersaturation?,Animal wastewater lagoons nearby concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) represent the latest tendency in global animal farming| severely impacting the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions| including nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We hypothesized that lagoon wastewater could be supersaturated with N(2)O as part of incomplete microbial nitrification/denitrification processes| thereby regulating the N(2)O partitioning in the gaseous phase. The objectives of this study were: (i) to investigate the magnitude of dissolved N(2)O concentrations in the lagoon; and (ii) to determine the extent to which supersaturation of N(2)O occurs in wastewater lagoons. Dissolved N(2)O concentrations in the wastewater samples were high| ranging from 0.4 to 40.5 mu g N(2)O mL(-1). Calculated dissolved N(2)O concentrations from the experimentally measured partition coefficients were much greater than those typically expected in aquatic systems (< similar to 0.6 mu g N(2)O mL(-1)). Knowledge of the factors controlling the magnitude of N(2)O supersaturation could potentially bridge mass balance differences between in situ measurements and global N(2)O models. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9851,2009,2,3,Do Models and Observations Disagree on the Rainfall Response to Global Warming?,Recently analyzed satellite-derived global precipitation datasets from 1987 to 2006 indicate an increase in global-mean precipitation of 1.1%-1.4% decade(-1). This trend corresponds to a hydrological sensitivity (HS) of 7% K(-1) of global warming| which is close to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate expected from the increase in saturation water vapor pressure with temperature. Analysis of two available global ocean evaporation datasets confirms this observed intensification of the atmospheric water cycle. The observed hydrological sensitivity over the past 20-yr period is higher by a factor of 5 than the average HS of 1.4% K(-1) simulated in state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models for the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. However| the analysis shows that the interdecadal variability in HS in the models is high-in particular in the twentieth-century runs| which are forced by both increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) and tropospheric aerosol concentrations. About 12% of the 20-yr time intervals of eight twentieth-century climate simulations from the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) have an HS magnitude greater than the CC rate of 6.5% K(-1). The analysis further indicates different HS characteristics for GHG and tropospheric aerosol forcing agents. Aerosol-forced HS is a factor of 2 greater| on average| and the interdecadal variability is significantly larger| with about 23% of the 20-yr sensitivities being above the CC rate. By thermodynamically constraining global precipitation changes| it is shown that such changes are linearly related to the difference in the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and the surface (i.e.| the atmospheric radiative energy imbalance). The strength of this relationship is controlled by the modified Bowen ratio (here| global sensible heat flux change divided by latent heat flux change). Hydrological sensitivity to aerosols is greater than the sensitivity to GHG because the former have a stronger effect on the shortwave transmissivity of the atmosphere| and thus produce a larger change in the atmospheric radiative energy imbalance. It is found that the observed global precipitation increase of 13 mm yr(-1) decade(-1) from 1987 to 2006 would require a trend of the atmospheric radiative imbalance (difference between the TOA and the surface) of 0.7 W m(-2) decade(-1). The recovery from the El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo volcanic aerosol injections in 1982 and 1991| the satellite-observed reductions in cloudiness during the phase of increasing ENSO events in the 1990s| and presumably the observed reduction of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations could have caused such a radiative imbalance trend over the past 20 years. Observational evidence| however| is currently inconclusive| and it will require more detailed investigations and longer satellite time series to answer this question. 9989,2009,2,4,Do weak AR4 models bias projections of future climate changes over Australia?,Regional climate projections using climate models commonly use an "all-model" ensemble based on data sets such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 4th Assessment (AR4). Some regional assessments have omitted models based on specific criteria. We use a criteria based on the capacity of climate models to simulate the observed probability density function calculated using daily data| model-by-model and region-by-region for each of the AR4 models over Australia. We demonstrate that by omitting those climate models with relatively weak skill in simulating the observed probability density functions of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation| different regional projections are obtained. Differences include: larger increases in the mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures| but smaller increases in the annual maximum and minimum temperatures. There is little impact on mean precipitation but the better models simulate a larger increase in the annual rainfall event combined with a larger decrease in the number of rain days. The weaker models bias the amount of mean warming towards lower increases| bias annual maximum temperatures to excessive warming and bias precipitation such that the amount of the annual rainfall event is under-estimated. We suggest that omitting weak models from regional scale estimates of future climate change helps clarify the nature and scale of the projected impacts of global warming. 9551,2009,2,4,Does Annual Temperature Influence the Prevalence of Otolaryngologic Respiratory Diseases?,Objectives/Hypothesis: Determine if increasing annual temperature is associated with an increase in the prevalence of otolaryngologic respiratory diseases. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: Patients and disease variables were extracted from the National Health Interview Survey for the calendar years 1998 to 2006 adult sample. Corresponding average annual temperature statistics were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The disease prevalences of hay fever| sinusitis' chronic bronchitis| and jaw/fac| pain (control group) were determined and tabulated according to mean annual temperature and compared graphically. Regression analysis for disease prevalence according to mean annual temperature was conducted. Results: A total of 851|584 adults were sampled with a mean age of 35.7 years and a male:female ratio of 0.93:1. The overall disease prevalences for the disease conditions across all years of the study were (+/- 95% confidence interval): hay fever (9.2% +/- 0.1%)| sinusitis (15.0% +/- 0.2%)| chronic bronchitis (4.5% +/- 0.1%) and pain in jaw/front of ear (4.5% +/- 0.1%). Regression analysis did not find a significant relationship between average annual temperature and the prevalence of disease for bay fever| jaw pain| or chronic bronchitis. A statistically significant but small regression coefficient (0.004) was noted for an increasing prevalence of sinusitis with increasing annual temperature (P = .031). Conclusions: Changes in mean annual temperature did not influence the prevalence of hay fever but did influence the prevalence of sinusitis over a 9-year period. Given the strong prevalence of hay fever and sinusitis| the effect of global warming on the otolaryngologic disease deserves continued epidemiologic surveillance. 10324,2009,2,4,Does evaporation paradox exist in China?,One expected consequence of global warming is the increase in evaporation. However| lots of observations show that the rate of evaporation from open pans of water has been steadily decreasing all over the world in the past 50 years. The contrast between expectation and observation is called "evaporation paradox". Based on data from 317 weather stations in China from 1956 to 2005| the trends of pan evaporation and air temperature were obtained and evaporation paradox was analyzed. The conclusions include: (1) From 1956 to 2005| pan evaporation paradox existed in China as a whole while pan evaporation kept decreasing and air temperature became warmer and warmer| but it does not apply to Northeast and Southeast China; (2) From 1956 to 1985| pan evaporation paradox existed narrowly as a whole with unobvious climate warming trend| but it does not apply to Northeast China; (3) From 1986 to 2005| in the past 20 years| pan evaporation paradox did not exist for the whole period while pan evaporation kept increasing| although it existed in South China. Furthermore| the trend of other weather factors including sunshine duration| windspeed| humidity and vapor pressure deficit| and their relations with pan evaporation are discussed. As a result| it can be concluded that pan evaporation decreasing is caused by the decreasing in radiation and wind speed before 1985 and pan evaporation increasing is caused by the decreasing in vapor pressure deficit due to strong warming after 1986. With the Budyko curve| it can be concluded that the actual evaporation decreased in the former 30 years and increased in the latter 20 year for the whole China. 10290,2009,2,4,Does global warming induce segregation among alien and native beetle species in a mountain-top?,The last few centuries have seen an increase in the mean air temperature of the planet| a phenomenon that is called "global warming". One of the most sensitive habitats to the effects of global warming is the high-elevation mountain environments| because these habitats are characterized by low temperature. Cushion plants are one of the best-adapted growth forms in this habitat| generating more suitable sites for other plants and insects. In the present study| we experimentally evaluated the effects of global warming by open-top chambers on the abundance and interaction of two ladybirds at 3|600 m| growing over cushions of the Azorella monantha species in the Andes of central Chile. Additionally| we measured variation in temperature| water content| and food availability by the presence of open-top chambers as possible mechanisms of spatial segregation between ladybirds. Without open-top chambers| the abundance of native and alien beetles was similar; but with open-top chambers| the native beetle species is spatially segregated by alien species| decreasing in abundance. The open-top chambers increase temperature and food availability| but not water content. We suggest that under the global warming scenario| the native insects will decrease in abundance or become extinct by the presence of alien insects| at least in the high-elevation mountain environments. 851,2009,2,4,Does Physical Protection of Soil Organic Matter Attenuate Temperature Sensitivity?,Global climate change may induce accelerated soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition through increased soil temperature| and thus impact the C balance in soils. We hypothesized that compartmentalization of substrates and decomposers in the soil matrix would decrease SOM sensitivity to temperature. We tested our hypothesis with three short-term laboratory incubations with differing physical protection treatments conducted at different temperatures. Overall| CO(2) efflux increased with temperature| but responses among physical protection treatments were not consistently different. Similar respiration quotient (Q(10)) values across physical protection treatments did not support our original hypothesis that the largest Q(10) values would be observed in the treatment with the least physical protection. Compartmentalization of substrates and decomposers is known to reduce the decomposability of otherwise labile material| but the hypothesized attenuation of temperature sensitivity was not detected| and thus the sensitivity is probably driven by the thermodynamics of biochemical reactions as expressed by Arrhenius-type equations. 10181,2009,2,4,Does prescribed burning mean a threat to the rare satyrine butterfly Hipparchia fagi? Larval-habitat preferences give the answer,The ecological effects of fire management| especially regarding arthropods are poorly investigated. Burning in winter was assumed to pose a threat to butterfly species hibernating as larvae. To assess the impact of prescribed burning on population viability| we analysed larval-habitat preferences of the highly endangered| xero-thermophilous butterfly Hipparchia fagi in vineyards of the Kaiserstuhl region (southern Germany). Microhabitat preference analyses for mature larvae and egg-laying females revealed a preference of H. fagi for Bromus erectus-dominated communities with sparse vegetation coverage and a distinct tuft growth of the host plant B. erectus on microclimatically benefited slopes. We explain the preference of B. erectus by a preference of vegetation structure. The grass tufts offer a suitable climatically buffered living space for larvae. Egg deposition took place on dry substrate at positions of high solar radiation| thus adapted to hot and dry microclimate. As the larval habitat was sparsely vegetated as well as generally legally protected| fire management was not applicable and therefore not affecting the populations. We think it is conceivable that H. fagi| occurring here at its northern range limit| might expand its larval habitat into denser| combustible B. erectus stands in the course of global warming. A change in habitat preferences would necessitate a re-evaluation of management options. 9679,2009,3,3,Dominance of Methanomicrobium phylotype in methanogen population present in Murrah buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis),Aims: To study the diversity of rumen methanogens in Murrah buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) from North India by using 16S rRNA gene libraries obtained from the pooled rumen content from four animals and using suitable software analysis. Methods and Results: Genomic DNA was isolated and PCR was set up by using specific primers. Amplified product was cloned into a suitable vector and the positive clones were selected on the basis of blue-white screening and sequenced. The resulting nucleotide sequences were arranged in the phylogenetic tree. A total of 108 clones were examined| revealing 17 different 16S rRNA gene sequences or phylotypes. Of the 17 phylotypes| 15 (102 of 108 clones) belonged to the genus Methanomicrobium| indicating that the genus Methanomicrobium is the most dominant component of methanogen populations in Murrah buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) from North India. The largest group of clones (102 clones) was more than 98% similar to Methanomicrobium mobile. BLAST analysis of the rumen contents from individual animals also revealed 17 different phylotypes with a range of 3-10 phylotypes per animal. Conclusion: Methanomicrobium phylotype is the most dominant phylotype of methanogens present in Murrah buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis). Significance and Impact of the Study: Effective strategies can be made to inhibit the growth of Methanomicrobium phylotype to reduce the methane emission from rumen contents and thus help in preventing global warming. 919,2009,2,3,Doom and Boom on a Resilient Reef: Climate Change| Algal Overgrowth and Coral Recovery,Background: Coral reefs around the world are experiencing large-scale degradation| largely due to global climate change| overfishing| diseases and eutrophication. Climate change models suggest increasing frequency and severity of warming-induced coral bleaching events| with consequent increases in coral mortality and algal overgrowth. Critically| the recovery of damaged reefs will depend on the reversibility of seaweed blooms| generally considered to depend on grazing of the seaweed| and replenishment of corals by larvae that successfully recruit to damaged reefs. These processes usually take years to decades to bring a reef back to coral dominance. Methodology/Principal Findings: In 2006| mass bleaching of corals on inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef caused high coral mortality. Here we show that this coral mortality was followed by an unprecedented bloom of a single species of unpalatable seaweed (Lobophora variegata)| colonizing dead coral skeletons| but that corals on these reefs recovered dramatically| in less than a year. Unexpectedly| this rapid reversal did not involve reestablishment of corals by recruitment of coral larvae| as often assumed| but depended on several ecological mechanisms previously underestimated. Conclusions/Significance: These mechanisms of ecological recovery included rapid regeneration rates of remnant coral tissue| very high competitive ability of the corals allowing them to out-compete the seaweed| a natural seasonal decline in the particular species of dominant seaweed| and an effective marine protected area system. Our study provides a key example of the doom and boom of a highly resilient reef| and new insights into the variability and mechanisms of reef resilience under rapid climate change. 9898,2009,4,4,Driven particle in a random landscape: Disorder correlator| avalanche distribution| and extreme value statistics of records,We review how the renormalized force correlator Delta(u)| the function computed in the functional renormalization-group (RG) field theory| can be measured directly in numerics and experiments on the dynamics of elastic manifolds in the presence of pinning disorder. We show how this function can be computed analytically for a particle dragged through a one-dimensional random-force landscape. The limit of small velocity allows one to access the critical behavior at the depinning transition. For uncorrelated forces one finds three universality classes| corresponding to the three extreme value statistics| Gumbel| Weibull| and Frechet. For each class we obtain analytically the universal function Delta(u)| the corrections to the critical force| and the joint probability distribution of avalanche sizes s and waiting times w. We find P(s)=P(w) for all three cases. All results are checked numerically. For a Brownian force landscape| known as the Alessandro| Beatrice| Bertotti| and Montorsi (ABBM) model| avalanche distributions and Delta(u) can be computed for any velocity. For two-dimensional disorder| we perform large-scale numerical simulations to calculate the renormalized force correlator tensor Delta(ij)(u)| and to extract the anisotropic scaling exponents zeta(x)>zeta(y). We also show how the Middleton theorem is violated. Our results are relevant for the record statistics of random sequences with linear trends| as encountered| e.g.| in some models of global warming. We give the joint distribution of the time s between two successive records and their difference in value w. 9318,2009,3,4,Driving forces behind land use and cover change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: a case study of the source region of the Yellow River| Qinghai Province| China,Research on land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important aspect of the study of global change or global warming. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is a good place to study global change because of its unique natural conditions| so we chose the source region of China's Yellow River for a case study of the driving forces behind LUCC. We used Landsat images obtained in 1989| 2000| and 2005 to establish databases of land use and cover at these times. We then derived LUCC information by overlaying these layers using GIS software. By studying the processes responsible for LUCC| we analyzed the driving forces| which included climatic change| human activities| animal and insect damage| and the influences of government policies. During the 16-year study period| LUCC occurred slowly in response to two groups of processes: natural and anthropogenic. The main driving forces included climate change (the region is becoming drier and warmer)| human activities (especially overgrazing)| and animal and insect damage. Although political measures such as key national projects to improve the ecological environment could help to restore the region's vegetation and slow desertification| the region's fragile ecosystems and harsh natural conditions will make it extremely difficult to rehabilitate the eco-environment. 9629,2009,5,4,Dryland hydrology in a warmer world: Lessons from the Last Glacial period,It has long been recognized that the tropics were drier and mid-latitude deserts wetter during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Until now there has not been a single| unifying explanation for this pattern. Recently| Held and Soden [34] suggested that ongoing global warming will cause the Earth's drylands to become progressively drier and its tropics to become progressively wetter. Because no suitable "warm world" analogue is available in the paleoclimate record| the best available test of Held and Soden's proposal is to look at records from the last glacial period in which drylands should have been wetter and the tropics drier. Our survey of the recent paleolake literature confirms that closed basin lakes located in the poleward limits (similar to 40A degrees) of the drylands in both hemispheres were far larger during the Last Glacial Maximum and parts of the tropics appear to have been less wet. While these observations are consistent with Held's prediction| evidence from the sub-tropical drylands (15 to 25A degrees) is more complex. As with high-latitude drylands| lakes in subtropical drylands of South America and probably the Kalahari Desert were larger than present during the LGM. By contrast| lakes in the sub-tropical Sahara and Arabian Deserts of the northern hemisphere were largest in the early Holocene| but also apparently larger than today in the early LGM. What paleolake records show are that 1) a strong hemispheric symmetry in lake response occurred during the LGM| 2) a difference in response occurred during the latest-glacial| and 3) lake expansions occurred in response to shifts in the thermal equator related to Heinrich Events and insolation variation as well as to colder temperatures. 753,2009,4,4,Dynamic analysis on carbon accumulation of a plantation in Qianyanzhou based on tree ring data,The authors developed a model to estimate annual tree growth based on tree-ring data (Abbr. TGTRing model) derived from the trunk at 0.5| 1.3 and 2.5 m height. This model was applied to estimate the annual biomass and carbon accumulation of a plantation in Qianyanzhou Red-Soil Hill Comprehensive Development Experimental Station of CAS in Taihe County| Jiangxi Province (Abbr. Qianyanzhou). The results showed that the inflexion points of the biomass and carbon accumulation curves occur at 17 and 18 years of age| respectively| in masson pine| whilst both inflexion points occurred at 15 years in slash pine and Chinese fir. The biomass and carbon accumulation in Chinese fir proved to be greater in the last 20 years than in the other species| with 171.697 t/hm(2) and 92.29 tc/hm(2)| respectively. masson pine| with a biomass of 133.84 t/hm(2) and a carbon accumulation of 73.92 tc/hm(2) was the lowest whilst slash pine was intermediate with a biomass of 147.639 t/hm(2) (unturpentined) and 135.743 t/hm(2) (turpentined)| and a carbon accumulation of 80.18 tc/hm(2) (unturpentined) and 73.72 tc/hm(2) (turpentined). In 2006| the total biomass and carbon storage of the tree stratum of masson pine in Qianyanzhou was 3324.43 t and 14|156.64 tc| respectively| whilst the values for Chinese fir were 1326.97 t and 713.27 tc. For slash pine the total biomass was 14|156.64 t (unturpentined) and 13|015.97 t (turpentined)| and the total carbon storage was 7 688.21 tc (unturpentined) and 7068.78 tc (turpentined). Following the shaving of slash pine for resin| the total biomass was reduced by 1140.67 t and the total carbon storage fell by 619.43 tc. 10082,2009,2,4,Dynamical seasonal prediction of summer sea surface temperatures in the Great Barrier Reef,Coral bleaching is a serious problem threatening the world coral reef systems| triggered by high sea surface temperatures (SST) which are becoming more prevalent as a result of global warming. Seasonal forecasts from coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to predict anomalous SST months in advance. In this study| we assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology seasonal forecast model (POAMA) to forecast SST anomalies in the Great Barrier Reef| Australia| with particular focus on the major 1998 and 2002 bleaching events. Advance warning of potential bleaching events allows for the implementation of management strategies to minimise reef damage. This study represents the first attempt to apply a dynamical seasonal model to the problem of coral bleaching and predict SST over a reef system for up to 6 months lead-time| a potentially invaluable tool for reef managers. 9974,2009,2,4,Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change,We link spatially explicit climate change predictions to a dynamic metapopulation model. Predictions of species' responses to climate change| incorporating metapopulation dynamics and elements of dispersal| allow us to explore the range margin dynamics for two lagomorphs of conservation concern. Although the lagomorphs have very different distribution patterns| shifts at the edge of the range were more pronounced than shifts in the overall metapopulation. For Romerolagus diazi (volcano rabbit)| the lower elevation range limit shifted upslope by approximately 700 m. This reduced the area occupied by the metapopulation| as the mountain peak currently lacks suitable vegetation. For Lepus timidus (European mountain hare)| we modelled the British metapopulation. Increasing the dispersive estimate caused the metapopulation to shift faster on the northern range margin (leading edge). By contrast| it caused the metapopulation to respond to climate change slower| rather than faster| on the southern range margin (trailing edge). The differential responses of the leading and trailing range margins and the relative sensitivity of range limits to climate change compared with that of the metapopulation centroid have important implications for where conservation monitoring should be targeted. Our study demonstrates the importance and possibility of moving from simple bioclimatic envelope models to second-generation models that incorporate both dynamic climate change and metapopulation dynamics. 9558,2009,5,4,Early Turonian Global Warming in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans According to the Data of the Foraminifera Analysis,In the article| my own data on the species composition of the shells of planktonic Foraminifera (PF) from the Early Turonian sediments of the Atlantic and Indian Ocean and from a number of the cross sections of Australia have been analyzed. In addition| literature materials on the epicontinental basins of the northern hemisphere were also studied. The foraminifera species (PF) are grouped| and four types of thanatocoenoses are distinguished according to their relationship. A climatic zonality map for the early Turonian was constructed on the basis of the spatial distribution of these types. The reconstruction obtained was compared with the climatic maps compiled earlier for the later time intervals of the Late Cretaceous. It was established that the Turonian was characterized by the warmest climate. The tendency for global warming was the most clearly manifested in the Early Turonian. 906,2009,2,4,Ecological niche modelling of the distribution of cold-water coral habitat using underwater remote sensing data,Despite a growing appreciation of the need to protect sensitive deep sea ecosystems such as cold-water corals| efforts to map the extent of their distribution are limited by their remoteness. Here we develop ecological niche models to predict the likely distributions of cold-water corals based on occurrence records and data describing environmental parameters (e.g. seafloor terrain attributes and oceanographic conditions). This study has used bathymetric data derived from ship-borne multibeam swath systems| species occurrence data from remotely operated vehicle video surveys and oceanographic parameters from hydrodynamic models to predict coral locations in regions where there is a paucity of direct observations. Predictions of the locations of the scleractinian coral| Lophelia pertusa are based primarily upon ecological niche modelling using a genetic algorithm. Its accuracy has been quantified at local (similar to 25 km(2)) and regional scales (similar to 4000 km(2)) along the Irish continental slope using a variety of error assessment techniques and a comparison with another ecological niche modelling technique. With appropriate choices of parameters and scales of analyses| ecological niche modelling has been effective in predicting the distributions of species at local and regional scales. Refinements of this approach have the potential to be particularly useful for ocean management given the need to manage areas of sensitive habitat where survey data are often limited. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10031,2009,3,4,Economic and environmental assessment of small and decentralized wastewater treatment systems,The aim of the present work was the assessment of economic and environmental aspects of decentralized energy-saving wastewater treatment systems. The formulated investment and operation cost functions were adjusted by a power law function. The different wastewater systems serving population settlements between 50 p.e. and 250 p.e.| presented associated investment costs varying from (sic)400/p.e. to (sic)200/p.e. and annual operation costs in the range of (sic)70/p.e.-(sic)20/p.e.| respectively. A life cycle analysis approach was used to compare the environmental impact of alternative wastewater treatment systems. The assessment was focused on two energy-saving systems (constructed wetland and slow rate infiltration) and a conventional one (activated sludge process). Low environmental impact of energy-saving wastewater treatment systems was demonstrated| being the most relevant the global warming indicator. Options for reduction of life cycle impacts were assessed including materials used in construction and operation lifetime of the systems. A 10% extension of operation lifetime of constructed wetland and slow rate infiltration systems lead to a 5% and 7% decrease in the abiotic depletion indicator| respectively| and to a 1% decrease in CO(2) emissions in both systems. Replacing steel with HDPE in the activated sludge tank resulted in a 1% reduction in CO(2) emission and 1% in the abiotic depletion indicator. In the case of the Imhoff tank a 1% reduction in CO(2) emissions and 5% in abiotic depletion indicator were observed when concrete was replaced by HDPE. Therefore| considering the huge potential of energy saving wastewater treatment systems| the overall environmental impact of such design alternatives should not be discarded. 814,2009,3,4,Economic efficiency of solar hot water policy in New Zealand,New Zealand has recently followed the path of several other countries in promoting solar hot water (SHW) systems in the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions| yet the economic efficiency of large-scale policies to encourage SHW remains a pressing question for policymakers. This paper develops an economic framework to examine policies to promote SHW in New Zealand| including the current information| training| and subsidy policy. The economic framework points to environmental| energy security| and average-cost electricity retail pricing market failures as motivation for SHW policy| with the global climate change externality the most important of these. The results indicate that domestic SHW systems are close to being financially attractive from a consumer perspective| but a more substantial subsidy policy would be necessary for SHW to appeal to a wider audience. Such a policy is far more likely to have positive net benefits than a policy of mandating SHW on all homes or all new homes in New Zealand| and could be justified on economic efficiency grounds under reasonable assumptions. However| this result reverses under an economy-wide carbon trading system that internalizes the environmental externality. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10081,2009,2,4,ECOSYSTEM EFFECTS OF EXPANDING POPULATIONS OF AVICENNIA GERMINANS IN A LOUISIANA SALT MARSH,The advancement of species poleward| due to global warming. has recently been documented worldwide. In Louisiana| Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) is moving northward into Spartina alterniflora salt marshes. Mangroves were historically restricted to southernmost islands and beaches by winter freezes; however. recently a noticeable expansion has occurred. The influence that mangroves have oil ecosystem processes within Louisiana salt marshes has not been documented. Thus. this research examined the effects of mangrove expansion oil sediment accretion| organic matter production and decomposition| and carbon assimilation| as well as edaphic parameters. Our results indicate that presently mangrove expansion has had no major effects on the ecosystem processes Measured. Sediment accretion| belowground production| decomposition. and carbon assimilation were similar between Avicennia and Spartina. Where mangroves expanded into the surrounding salt marsh| elevation. redox potential| bulk density| and soil ammonium Were slightly higher| while soil moisture and porewater salinity were somewhat lower. Because the mangroves are small ill stature and areal extent| significant effects oil ecosystem processes may presently be somewhat muted. However. if stands continue to grow. noted effects may occur ill the future. Our research provides a baseline from which future ecosystem responses may be evaluated as mangroves in Louisiana continue to develop. 10101,2009,4,3,Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of CH(4) and N(2)O and ecosystem respiration in wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain| Northeastern China,Natural wetlands are critically important to global change because of their role in modulating atmospheric concentrations of CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O. One 4-year continuous observation was conducted to examine the exchanges of CH(4) and N(2)O between three wetland ecosystems and the atmosphere as well as the ecosystem respiration in the Sanjiang Plain in Northeastern China. From 2002 to 2005| the mean annual budgets of CH(4) and N(2)O| and ecosystem respiration were 39.40 +/- 6.99 g Cm(-2) yr(-1)| 0.124 +/- 0.05 g Nm(-2) yr(-1)| and 513.55 +/- 8.58 g Cm(-2) yr(-1) for permanently inundated wetland; 4.36 +/- 1.79 g Cm(-2) yr(-1)| 0.11 +/- 0.12 g Nm(-2) yr(-1)| and 880.50 +/- 71.72 g Cm(-2) yr(-1) for seasonally inundated wetland; and 0.21 +/- 0.1 g Cm(-2) yr(-1)| 0.28 +/- 0.11 g Nm(-2) yr(-1)| and 1212.83 +/- 191.98 g Cm(-2) yr(-1) for shrub swamp. The substantial interannual variation of gas fluxes was due to the significant climatic variability which underscores the importance of long-term continuous observations. The apparent seasonal pattern of gas emissions associated with a significant relationship of gas fluxes to air temperature implied the potential effect of global warming on greenhouse gas emissions from natural wetlands. The budgets of CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes and ecosystem respiration were highly variable among three wetland types| which suggest the uncertainties in previous studies in which all kinds of natural wetlands were treated as one or two functional types. New classification of global natural wetlands in more detailed level is highly expected. 9520,2009,2,3,Effect of a global warming-induced increase in typhoon intensity on urban productivity in Taiwan,A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future due to the warming effect of greenhouse gases on surface sea temperatures. The aim of this paper is to establish what would be the likely decrease in the productivity of urban workers due to an increase in tropical cyclone-related downtime. The methodology used simulates future tropical cyclones by magnifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008. It then uses a Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. It shows how annual downtime from tropical cyclones could increase from 1.5% nowadays to up to 2.2% by 2085| an increase of almost 50%. This decrease in productivity could result in a loss of up to 0.7% of the annual Taiwanese GDP by 2085. 9877,2009,4,2,Effect of chemistry-aerosol-climate coupling on predictions of future climate and future levels of tropospheric ozone and aerosols,We explore the extent to which chemistry-aerosol-climate coupling influences predictions of future ozone and aerosols as well as future climate using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model II' with on-line simulation of tropospheric ozone-NO(x)-hydrocarbon chemistry and sulfate| nitrate| ammonium| black carbon| primary organic carbon| and secondary organic carbon aerosols. Based on IPCC scenario A2| year 2100 ozone| aerosols| and climate simulated with full chemistry-aerosol-climate coupling are compared with those simulated from a stepwise approach. In the stepwise method year 2100 ozone and aerosols are first simulated using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions (denoted as simulation CHEM2100sw) and year 2100 climate is then predicted using offline monthly fields of O(3) and aerosols from CHEM2100sw (denoted as simulation CLIM2100sw). The fully coupled chemistry-aerosol-climate simulation predicts a 15% lower global burden of O3 for year 2100 than the simulation CHEM2100sw which does not account for future changes in climate. Relative to CHEM2100sw| year 2100 column burdens of all aerosols in the fully coupled simulation exhibit reductions of 10-20 mg m(-2) in DJF and up to 10 mg m(-2) in JJA in mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere| reductions of up to 20 mg m(-2) over the eastern United States| northeastern China| and Europe in DJF| and increases of 30-50 mg m(-2) over populated and biomass burning areas in JJA. As a result| relative to year 2100 climate simulated from CLIM2100sw| full chemistry-aerosol-climate coupling leads to a stronger net global warming by greenhouse gases| tropospheric ozone and aerosols in year 2100| with a global and annual mean surface air temperature higher by 0.42 K. For simulation of year 2100 aerosols| we conclude that it is important to consider the positive feedback between future aerosol direct radiative forcing and future aerosol concentrations; increased aerosol concentrations lead to reductions in convection and precipitation (or wet deposition of aerosols)| further increasing lower tropospheric aerosol concentrations. 9608,2009,2,4,Effect of climate change on pome fruit phenology at Klein-Altendorf - based on 50 years of meteorological and phenological records,This project examines the effects of climate change on pome fruit phenology at Klein-Altendorf in the Rhineland fruit-growing region in the West of Germany| using 50 years of weather data and phenology records| including beginning of flowering (F1)| full bloom (F2)| harvest date and leaf drop of apple and pear| with the following results: 1. Fifty years of weather records and pome phenology data showed a distinct separation between a first phase (1958-1987)| which was 0.42 degrees C cooler| and a second phase (1988-2007)| which was 0.66 degrees C warmer than the long-term| 50 year temperature average of 9.4 degrees C| indicating the start of the climate change in 1988. 2. Annual average temperatures rose from 8.8 degrees C to 10.2 degrees C| i.e. by 1.4 degrees C over 50 years at Klein-Altendorf| which affected the apple phenology. A comparison of the second phase (average temp. 10.1 degrees C) with the first phase (9.0 degrees C) resulted in a temperature rise of 1.1 degrees C; the temperature rise in the winter (1.2 degrees C) was greater (by 0.2 degrees C) than in the summer (1.0 degrees C). This temperature rise in the last 20 years (second phase| 1988-2007) was more pronounced in the winter months January (+1.7 degrees C) and February (+1.8 degrees C) than in the spring months March and May both with +1.4 degrees C leading to enhanced early post-bloom fruit drop| and July (+1.3 degrees C) and August (+1.6 degrees C). 3. Annual precipitation remained constant at ca. 600 mm with an increase in February| March and April and an equivalent decrease in May (-10 mm) and July (-7 mm) during fruit development. 4. Soil temperatures increased by 2.6 degrees C and hence greater than the air temperature (+1.45 degrees C) over the last 50 years; this increase was most pronounced between January and March. 5. Minimum air temperatures increased also by 2.6 degrees C from -6.1 degrees C in March 1958 to -3.5 degrees C in March 2007. The more advanced flowering| brought about by warmer January to March temperatures| now coincides with late spring frosts| thereby maintaining the risk of yield loss due to spring frost in April| a month when the minimum temperature still continues to drop. 6. On average| apple and pear flowering was 10 days earlier without extension of the flowering period after warm winters and appeared more severely affected than the harvest period (3-9 days) and leaf drop (2-3 days earlier) with distinct varietal differences. The apple flowering period was 4 days shorter in the last 10 years and reduced from 12-15 days to 8-10 days. Early maturing cultivars (cvs) ripened 3-4 days earlier| while late cvs ripened 8-12 days earlier. The period between harvest and leaf drop was extended by 2-7 (apple) to 11 days (pear)| which requires regional differentiation according to the respective climatic zone and may be beneficial for nutrient translocation into the perennial woody parts of the tree. 7. Since the changes in the temperature-based vegetation period did not explain the effects of climate change on pome phenology| a 'pomological vegetation interval' between the beginning of flowering and beginning of leaf drop was defined and was extended by climate change in spring by 0-10 days in apple and by 8 days in pear. Based on flowering (F1| F2) advances| the Meckenheim fruit-growing region was more strongly affected by the climate change compared with other European fruit growing regions. 9417,2009,2,4,Effect of Different Feeding Method on Methane and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Milk Yield and Composition of Lactating Awassi Sheep,This Study was performed to evaluate the effect of different feeding systems (choice feeding and conventional system) oil performance and emission of carbon dioxide (CO.) and enteric methane (CH(4)) in dairy Awassi ewes. One chamber was equipped with gas analyzers to measure CH(4) and CO(2) for 23 h day(-1). In total| 16 ewes were used. The ewes were divided into two groups: the Free Choice (FC) group received feed ingredients separately and the Total Mixed Ration (TMR) group received a standard mixed concentrate: forage diet in a ratio of 60:40. The results showed no significant differences between treatments in performance parameters. However| the results of CH| and CO(2) measurement indicated significant differences between groups in the amounts of CH(4) and CO(2) produced per kg dry matter intake. The ewes in the FC group produced less CH(4) per animal than the ewes that received the TMR system. In ewes on the FC system| the level of propionate was greatly increased relative to the total VFA components. There were no significant differences in ruminal pH and acetate level between treatments. The results indicate that the FC system may be a potential mitigating effect on enteric emission of CH(4) and CO(2). 9859,2009,2,4,Effect of ecosystem warming on boreal black spruce bud burst and shoot growth,The boreal forest is predicted to experience the greatest warming of any forest biome during the next 50-100 years| but the effects of warming on vegetation phenology are not well known. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the effects of whole ecosystem warming on bud burst and annual shoot growth of black spruce trees in northern Manitoba| Canada and (2) correlate bud burst to cumulative degree-days (CDD). The experimental design was a complete randomized block design that consisted of four replicated blocks. Each replicate block contained four treatments: soil warming only (heated outside| HO)| soil and air warming (heated inside| HI)| control outside (no chamber| no heating| CO)| and inside a chamber maintained at ambient conditions (no soil or air warming| control inside| CI). Bud burst was measured during the first and second years of the experiment| starting in 2004| and annual shoot growth was measured for the first 3 years (2004-2006) of the study. On average| shoot bud burst occurred 11 and 9 days earlier in 2004 and 2005| respectively| for HI than for other treatments. However| mean CDD required for bud burst for HI was within the standard deviation of CO for both years. In year 1 of the treatments| shoot bud burst occurred earlier for HI than other treatments (CI| CO| HO)| but final shoot length of HI trees was less than in CO trees. In the second year of warming| final shoot length was not different for HI than CO. By the third year of warming final shoot length was significantly greater for HI than all other treatments. Empirical results from this study suggest that soil and air warming causes an earlier bud burst for all years of observation and greater shoot lengths by the third season of warming. A longer growing season and greater annual shoot growth should increase carbon uptake by boreal black spruce trees in a warmer climate. 9490,2009,2,4,Effect of global warming on the distribution of Lucifer intermedius and L. hanseni (Decapoda) in the Changjiang estuary,We conducted an oceanographic census in 1959| 2002| and 2005 to evaluate changes in the temporo-spatial distribution and abundance of Lucifer intermedius and L. hanseni in the Changjiang estuary. In general| the abundance and frequency of occurrence (OF) for these two species were highest during the summer. We measured a significant change in the abundance and OF between years. The abundance and OF of L. intermedius increased from 3.7 individuals m(-3) and 66.67%| respectively| in 1959| to 8.93 individuals m(-3) and 85.19%| in 2002. In 1959| L. hanseni was only found during the summer (abundance: 0.01 individuals m(-3)| OF: 3.70%). However| in 2002| this species was collected during all seasons except the winter. Furthermore| abundance (0.47 individuals m(-3)) and OF (25.93%) were higher in 2002 than in 1959. Further increases in abundance and OF were measured during cruises during the spring of 2005. We hypothesize that global warming is responsible for the increase in abundance of L. intermedius and L. hanseni and the northward expansion of L. hanseni in the Changjiang estuary. Given our results| monitoring of both species may be useful to evaluate the effects of climate change. (C) 2009 National Natural Science Foundation of China and Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier Limited and Science in China Press. All rights reserved. 9331,2009,5,4,Effect of Miocene paleoceanographic changes on the benthic foraminiferal diversity at ODP site 754A (southeastern Indian Ocean),Miocene deep sea benthic foraminiferal diversity at ODP site 754A| in the southeastern Indian Ocean was examined in the present study. Paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic change were inferred based on the above study. Species diversity was measured in terms of Shannon-Weaver Index [H(S)]. Hurlbert's Diversity Index (S(100))| Alpha Index (alpha) and Equitability (E). Values of S(100) show more positive correlation with H(S) and alpha value. All diversity parameters show almost similar pattern during the study interval. Present study infers that the changing trophic level has much influence on the faunal diversity. More diverse fauna of late early Miocene to early middle Miocene along with low delta(18)O and high delta(13)C values reflect warn and stable bottom waters with low food supply. This corresponds to the Miocene climatic optimum. This was also an interval of global warming and reduced Antaretic ice-sheet volume. Significant decline in diversity and delta(13)C values along with abrupt increase in delta(18)C values at similar to 14 Ma indicate cold| relatively less oxygenated and unstable bottom waters with increased food supply due to higher surface productivity. Development of thermal gradient between low and high latitudes in response to the expansion of Antarctic ice-sheet during 15-12.5 Ma was responsible for increased upwelling and high surface productivity. Decrease in faunal diversity at similar to 7 Ma onwards along with low delta(13)C and high delta(18)C values corresponds with the Chron-6 negative Carbon shift| expansion of west Antactic ice-sheet and lowering of sea level. 9567,2009,3,3,Effect of nitrogen deposition reduction on biodiversity and carbon sequestration,Global warming and loss of biodiversity are among the most prominent environmental issues of our time. Large sums are spent to reduce their causes| the emission of CO(2) and nitrogen compounds. However| the results of such measures are potentially conflicting| as the reduction of nitrogen deposition may hamper carbon sequestration and thus increase global warming. Moreover| it is uncertain whether a lower nitrogen deposition will lead to a higher biodiversity. We applied a dynamic soil model| a vegetation dynamic model and a biodiversity regression model to investigate the effect of nitrogen deposition reduction on the carbon sequestration and plant species diversity. The soil and vegetation models simulate the carbon sequestration as a result of nitrogen deposition and they provide the biodiversity model with information on the soil conditions groundwater table| pH and nitrogen availability. The plant diversity index resulting from the biodiversity model is based on the occurrence of 'red list' species for the tree soil conditions. Based on the model runs we forecast that a gradual decrease in nitrogen deposition from 40 to 10 kg N ha(-1) y(-1) in the next 25 years will cause a drop in the net carbon sequestration of forest in The Netherlands to 27% of the present amount| while biodiversity remains constant in forest| but may increase in heathland and grassland. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10132,2009,2,4,Effect of north and south exposure on organic matter in high Alpine soils,The present work focuses on the subalpine range of the Italian Alps to determine the influence of aspect and consequently climate on soil humus properties and chemistry. This was done by comparing soils developing in north- and south-facing sites on siliceous parent material. The soils were investigated with respect to the total organic C and N content| C and N contents of organic matter (OM) density fractions and of labile (oxidised by H(2)O(2)) and stable (H(2)O(2)-resistant) fractions. Further characterisation of OM and the different fractions was performed with Diffuse Reflection Infrared Fourier Transform (DRIFT)| Scanning Electron Microscopy/Electron Diffuse Scattering (SEM/EDS) and radiocarbon dating. The soils at north-facing slopes had a higher OM content. Density measurements and the H(2)O(2) fractionation proved that this higher content was primarily due to a more pronounced accumulation of weakly degraded| labile organic materials when compared to the south-facing slopes. Independent of the sites| a large part of OM (around 50% of OM) was fixed in the densest fraction (>2 g/cm(3)) which correlated well with the abundance of the H(2)O(2)-resistant fraction. The (14)C ages of the latter were up to 17|000 years| reflecting the presence of stable| refractory OM and the effectiveness of organo-mineral interactions in protecting OM from decay. Podzolisation has been more intense at north-facing sites. Due to the accumulation of weakly degraded CM| eluviation of Fe and Al is strongly enhanced. High-mountain ecosystems like the Alps are very sensitive to changing environmental conditions such as global warming. Especially at cooler sites| the obtained results suggest that a warmer climate| and thus more favourable conditions for biological activity| will lead in the short- to mid-term to an increased loss of accumulated| weakly degraded OM. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9407,2009,4,3,Effect of nutrient and selective inhibitor amendments on methane oxidation| nitrous oxide production| and key gene presence and expression in landfill cover soils: characterization of the role of methanotrophs| nitrifiers| and denitrifiers,Methane and nitrous oxide are both potent greenhouse gasses| with global warming potentials approximately 25 and 298 times that of carbon dioxide. A matrix of soil microcosms was constructed with landfill cover soils collected from the King Highway Landfill in Kalamazoo| Michigan and exposed to geochemical parameters known to affect methane consumption by methanotrophs while also examining their impact on biogenic nitrous oxide production. It was found that relatively dry soils (5% moisture content) along with 15 mg NH (4) (+) (kg soil)(-1) and 0.1 mg phenylacetylenea (TM)(kg soil)(-1) provided the greatest stimulation of methane oxidation while minimizing nitrous oxide production. Microarray analyses of pmoA showed that the methanotrophic community structure was dominated by Type II organisms| but Type I genera were more evident with the addition of ammonia. When phenylacetylene was added in conjunction with ammonia| the methanotrophic community structure was more similar to that observed in the presence of no amendments. PCR analyses showed the presence of amoA from both ammonia-oxidizing bacteria and archaea| and that the presence of key genes associated with these cells was reduced with the addition of phenylacetylene. Messenger RNA analyses found transcripts of pmoA| but not of mmoX| nirK| norB| or amoA from either ammonia-oxidizing bacteria or archaea. Pure culture analyses showed that methanotrophs could produce significant amounts of nitrous oxide| particularly when expressing the particulate methane monooxygenase (pMMO). Collectively| these data suggest that methanotrophs expressing pMMO played a role in nitrous oxide production in these microcosms. 742,2009,2,4,Effect of typhoon on atmospheric particulates in autumn in central Taiwan,Previous studies have suggested that the ongoing global climate change will likely increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather| such as typhoons. Since the beginning of global warming| it has become necessary to understand the influence of typhoons on air quality. Rare data| especially particulate measurements data could be used to establish the relationship between the air pollution and typhoons. One of main limiting factors is that most of the previous chemical analyses of particulates used a relatively long sampling time| which could dilute the temporal impact of particulate characteristics and their sources. This work| depending more time-resolved measurements| focus on the characteristics and sources of high particulate matter levels and the influence of typhoons and the Pacific high system. Depending on the measurements| two pollutant groups were clearly identified in this work. The first pollutant group was the emissions from neighboring riverbeds under the strong circulation of the typhoon in the driest season and characterized as high coarse particle concentrations with high mass fraction of Ca(2+). The second pollutant group was characterized as the formation and transport of secondary particles with prevalent ions of NH(4)(+)| NO(3)(-)| and SO(4)(2-) and occurred in the sea-land breeze circulation under the influence the Pacific high system. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9291,2009,4,3,Effect of variation in argon content of calibration gases on determination of atmospheric carbon dioxide,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is a greenhouse gas that makes by far the largest contribution to the global warming of the Earth's atmosphere. For the measurements of atmospheric CO(2) a non-dispersive infrared analyzer (NDIR) and gas chromatography are conventionally being used. We explored whether and to what degree argon content can influence the determination of atmospheric CO(2) using the comparison of CO(2) concentrations between the sample gas mixtures with varying At amounts at 0 and 18.6 mmol mol(-1) and the calibration gas mixtures with Ar at 8.4| 9.1| and 9.3 mmol mol(-1). We newly discovered that variation of At content in calibration gas mixtures could undermine accuracy for precise and accurate determination of atmospheric CO(2) in background air. The differences in CO(2) concentration due to the variation of Ar content in the calibration gas mixtures were negligible (<+/-0.03 mu mol mol(-1)) for NDIR systems whereas they noticeably increased (<+/-1.09 mu mol mol(-1)) especially for the modified GC systems to enhance instrumental sensitivity. We found that the thermal mass flow controller is the main source of the differences although such differences appeared only in the presence of a flow restrictor in GC systems. For reliable monitoring of real atmospheric CO(2) samples| one should use calibration gas mixtures that contain At content close to the level (9.332 mmol mol(-1)) in the ambient air as possible. Practical guidelines were highlighted relating to selection of appropriate analytical approaches for the accurate and precise measurements of atmospheric CO(2). In addition| theoretical implications from the findings were addressed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10193,2009,4,4,Effective monitoring as a basis for adaptive management: a case history of mountain pine beetle in Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem whitebark pine,With reference to massive outbreaks of a variety of bark beetles occurring across the forests of western North America| it is stressed that an accurate assessment of the extent of the problem is the first step toward formulating effective adaptive management strategies. This assessment will only be possible through a coordinated effort that combines all available technologies| that is an approach that builds on satellite image analysis| aerial survey from fixed-wing aircraft| and on the ground observation and measurement. 9829,2009,2,2,Effects of climate change on global biodiversity: a review of key literature,There is very little doubt among the scientific community that human-induced greenhouse gas emission has contributed significantly to the climate change. Most significant changes in the earth's temperature have been noticed since the advent of the industrial era in the late 1800s. Over the past 100 years| the earth's surface has warmed by approximately 0.6 degrees C. Human activities such as the large-scale burning of fossil fuels to operate power plants and automobiles are releasing greenhouse gases like CO(2) into the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate. Humans are currently releasing 70 million tonnes of CO(2) per day into the atmosphere. This paper draws from the major papers that have appeared in journals on this topic over the past two decades| and gives an overview of anthropogenic climate change and its impact on a wide variety of life-forms in various ecosystems. After a brief overview of climate change and its causes| focus is given to amphibian extinctions in Central America| the poleward and altitudinal shifts in the distribution of various organisms (especially butterflies)| the. spread of pathogen-driven diseases| the bleaching of coral reefs| and the changes in community and trophic dynamics in various marine and terrestrial ecosystems. 9473,2009,3,3,Effects of different mobilities of leaf and woody litters on litter carbon dynamics in arid ecosystems in Western Australia,Afforestation of and land is a promising countermeasure against global warming. We had previously found| through modeling and mass balance analyses of an and land afforestation experimental project in Western Australia| that a significant amount of litter could have been physically removed from the floors of natural forests. In order to analyze litter carbon dynamics in depth| we investigated the actual mobility of litter in several natural forests in Sturt Meadows in an arid region of Western Australia| and estimated the difference between the removal rate of leaf and woody (twigs and branches) litter on the forest floor. Then we redeveloped a litter carbon dynamics model by incorporating physical removal of litter to show the different mobilities of leaf and woody litters. We also analyzed carbon balances and the effect of differential litter mobility on litter carbon dynamics. Except for twigs in one plot in a high density forest| 29-100% of leaf litter and 10-100% of woody litter was removed annually| demonstrating the physical removal of litter in these natural forests. The main cause of litter removal was wind| not flooding. Decreases in leaf and woody litters could be approximated as first order decay functions in most plots; first order decay or disappearance rate constants were then determined. Estimated disappearance rate constants of leaf and woody litter ranged from 0.19 to 11 and 0.11-12 year(-1)| respectively; most of the constants ranged from 0.19 to 2.0 and 0.11-0.74 year(-1)| respectively. Based on the disappearance rate constant| the mobility of woody litter was estimated to be roughly 20% that of leaf litter| confirming that climatic factors move leaves more easily than twigs. The improved model| which took into account the different mobilities of leaf and woody litters| showed that annual physical removal of litter reached 70-82% of the annual litter fall in Acacia aneura forests| and that roughly 40-60% of the existing litter was removed annually from all sites. Incorporating into the model the difference in mobilities of leaf and woody litters showed that the ratio of annual litter removal to annual litter fall increased about 10% points compared with the assumption of that both litter types had equal mobility. 2,2009,2,4,Effects of diurnal warming on soil respiration are not equal to the summed effects of day and night warming in a temperate steppe,The magnitude of daily minimum temperature increase is greater than that of daily maximum temperature increase under climate warming. This study was conducted to examine whether changes in soil respiration under diurnal warming are equal to the summed changes under day and night warming in a temperate steppe in northern China. A full factorial design with day and night warming was used in this study| including control| day (06:00 a.m.-06:00 p.m.| local time) warming| night (06:00 p.m.-06:00 a.m.) warming| and diurnal warming. Day warming showed no effect on soil respiration| whereas night warming significantly increased soil respiration by 7.1% over the 3 growing seasons in 2006-2008. The insignificant effect of day warming on soil respiration could be attributable to the offset of the direct positive effects of increased temperature by the indirect negative effects via aggravating water limitation and suppressing ecosystem C assimilation. The positive effects of night warming on soil respiration were largely due to the stimulation of ecosystem C uptake and substrate supply via overcompensation of plant photosynthesis. Changes in both soil respiration (+20.7 g C m(-2) y(-1)) and GEP (-2.8 g C m(-2) y(-1)) under diurnal warming are smaller than their summed changes (+40.0 and +24.6 g C m(-2) y(-1)| respectively) under day and night warming. Our findings that the effects of diurnal warming on soil respiration and gross ecosystem productivity are not equal to the summed effects of day and night warming are critical for model simulation and projection of climate-carbon feedback. 774,2009,2,4,Effects of elevated ozone on photosynthesis and stomatal conductance of two soybean varieties: a case study to assess impacts of one component of predicted global climate change,Global climatic change scenarios predict a significant increase in future tropospheric ozone (O(3)) concentrations. The present investigation was done to assess the effects of elevated O(3) (70 and 100 ppb) on electron transport| carbon fixation| stomatal conductance and pigment concentrations in two tropical soybean (Glycine max L.) varieties| PK 472 and Bragg. Plants were exposed to O(3) for 4 h center dot day-1 from 10:00 to 14:00 from germination to maturity. Photosynthesis of both varieties were adversely affected| but the reduction was higher in PK 472 than Bragg. A comparison of chlorophyll a fluorescence kinetics with carbon fixation suggested greater sensitivity of dark reactions than light reactions of photosynthesis to O(3) stress. The O(3)-induced uncoupling between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance in PK 472 suggests the reduction in photosynthesis may be attributed to a factor other than reduced stomatal conductance. An increase in internal CO(2) concentration in both O(3)-treated soybean varieties compared suggests that the reduction in photosynthesis was due to damage to the photosynthetic apparatus| leading to accumulation of internal CO(2) and stomatal closure. The adverse impact of O(3) stress increased at higher O(3) concentrations in both soybean varieties leading to large reductions in photosynthesis. This study suggests that O(3)-induced reductions in photosynthesis in tropical and temperate varieties are similar. 9352,2009,2,4,Effects of experimental warming and drought on biomass accumulation in a Mediterranean shrubland,We studied the effects of experimental warming and drought on the plant biomass of a Mediterranean shrubland. We monitored growth at plant level and biomass accumulation at stand level. The experimentation period stretched over 7 years (1999-2005) and we focused on the two dominant shrub species| Erica multiflora L. and Globularia alypum L. and the tree species Pinus halepensis L. The warming treatment increased shoot elongation in E. multiflora| and the drought treatment reduced shoot elongation in G. alypum. The elongation of P. halepensis remained unaffected under both treatments. The balance between the patterns observed in biomass accumulation for the three studied species in the drought plots (reduction in E. multiflora and P. halepensis and increase in G. alypum) resulted in a trend to reduce 33% the biomass of the drought treatment plots with respect to the untreated plots| which almost doubled their biomass from 1998 to 2005. The results also suggest that under drier conditions larger accumulation of dead biomass may occur at stand level| which combined with higher temperatures| may thus increase fire risk in the Mediterranean area. 872,2009,2,4,Effects of fire and environmental variables on plant structure and composition in grazed salt desert shrublands of the Great Basin (USA),Fire in shrub-dominated portions of the Great Basin. largely fueled by non-native annuals such as Bromus tectorum| has become an important structuring force altering vegetation composition and soil characteristics. The extent to which fire affects native species in drier portions of the Great Basin| termed salt desert| is poorly documented. We conducted a survey of grazed salt desert habitat in northwestern Nevada 5 years after wildfires burned 650|000 ha| with the goal of investigating community response to fire and factors correlating with post-fire recovery. We found that recruitment of a dominant shrub| Artemisia spinescens| is severely restricted following fire: it occurred in only 2 of the 24 burned sites. The co-dominant shrub| Atriplex confertifolia| occurred in most burned sites although on average its percent cover was one-third lower than adjacent unburned sites. Biotic soil crust cover was four times lower| and non-native species cover 5 times higher| in burned sites compared to unburned. Ordination analyses confirmed differences among plant communities in burned versus unburned sites| with environmental variables soil conductivity| plant litter| soil potassium (K(+)) and pH explaining 38% of the variance in community composition. However| we found no environmental predictors of recovery for native species in burned sites. Future recruitment is likely to be further limited| as fire frequency in the salt desert is expected to increase with invasion by non-native annual grasses and with global climate change. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1028,2009,2,3,EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ECOLOGICAL NICHE OF SILVER FIR (Abies alba Mill.) IN CROATIA,The aim of this research is to determine the following: the fundamental ecological niche or potential distribution range of silver fir in Croatia on the basis of selected climatic factors| differences between parts of fir distribution range with reference to the selected climatic factors and changes in the ecological niche in terms of the climate change model for the period 2000 - 2100. Climatic data for the period 1950 - 2000 used in this work were taken from the Worldclime database (Hijmans et al. 2005). Eight climatic variables and relief factors were employed to construct the prognostic model| such as altitute (m)| slope (degrees) and others. Highly correlated variables were rejected. To predict climate changes for the period 2000 - 2100| a CCM3 model (Climate Change Model) was used| which is based on double the current level of greenhouse gases (CO(2)| CH(4)| N(2)O| CFC-11 and CFC-12) (Govindasamy et al. 2003). All climatic data in grid form were entered in 30-second resolution (similar to 1 km(2)). Data on fir occurrence in Croatia were taken from the latest research on the distribution of forest sites (Vukelic et al. 2008)| ICP plots| phytocoenological releve database of the Republic of Croatia and management plans. In each plot fir occurrence was graded with binary variables - 1 (present) and 0 (absent). Independent variables used to construct the logistic model and prediction included elevation - Elev (m)| slope - Slope (degrees)| mean annual temperature - MeanAnnT (degrees C)| mean annual temperature range - MeanAnnTR (degrees C)| obtained as the difference between the mean temperature of the warmest and the coldest month| then the ratio between the mean monthly temperature range and the mean annual temperature range - IsoTherm (degrees C)| mean temperature of the driest quarter - Mean TDQ (degrees C)| mean temperature of the coldest quarter - Mean TCM (degrees C)| mean annual precipitation quantity - MeanAnnP (mm)| mean annual precipitation in the warmest quarter - MeanPWQ (mm) and coefficient of seasonal precipitation variation - PreS (mm). The distribution range of fir was divided into three parts: DIN - the Dinaric part of fir range within the community Omphalodo-Fagetum /Tregubov 1957/ Marincek et al. 1993| ACD - the Dinaric part of acidophilic fir communities (Blechno-Abietetum Horvat 1193811950) and PAN- the Pannonian part encompassing fir range within the community Festuco drymeiae-Abietetum (Vukelic et Baricevic 2007). Discriminant analysis (DA) was used to analyze and visualize ecological niches within the range. The prognostic model of ecological niches for the current distribution range of fir and that for the period until 2 100 with regard to climate change model was made by means of logistic regression (LOGREG)| expressions: p(y)= exp(LP)/(1+ exp(LP))| where LP represents linear combination of independent variables (Flantua et al. 2007). According to the research| the current range of silver fir in Croatia does not differ dramatically (p >= 0.9) from the potential one. This suggests that longlasting forest management did not contribute to its reduction. However| the selected climatic factors could have a signficant effect on the occurrence of silver fir in Croatia. The prognostic model shows that in conditions of global climate changes its potential range (p = >= 0.9) in Croatia could decrease by similar to 85% in the period 2000-2100. 9812,2009,2,4,Effects of Global Warming on Ancient Mammalian Communities and Their Environments,Background: Current global warming affects the composition and dynamics of mammalian communities and can increase extinction risk; however| long-term effects of warming on mammals are less understood. Dietary reconstructions inferred from stable isotopes of fossil herbivorous mammalian tooth enamel document environmental and climatic changes in ancient ecosystems| including C(3)/C(4) transitions and relative seasonality. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here| we use stable carbon and oxygen isotopes preserved in fossil teeth to document the magnitude of mammalian dietary shifts and ancient floral change during geologically documented glacial and interglacial periods during the Pliocene (similar to 1.9 million years ago) and Pleistocene (similar to 1.3 million years ago) in Florida. Stable isotope data demonstrate increased aridity| increased C(4) grass consumption| inter-faunal dietary partitioning| increased isotopic niche breadth of mixed feeders| niche partitioning of phylogenetically similar taxa| and differences in relative seasonality with warming. Conclusion/Significance: Our data show that global warming resulted in dramatic vegetation and dietary changes even at lower latitudes (similar to 28 degrees N). Our results also question the use of models that predict the long term decline and extinction of species based on the assumption that niches are conserved over time. These findings have immediate relevance to clarifying possible biotic responses to current global warming in modern ecosystems. 9327,2009,2,4,Effects of grazing and experimental warming on DOC concentrations in the soil solution on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau,Little information is available about the effects of global warming and land management on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration in soil solution in the field. Here| for the first time| we used a free-air temperature enhancement (FATE) system in a controlled warming-grazing experiment in 2006 and 2007 to test the hypothesis that grazing modifies the response of soil solution DOC concentration to experimental warming. Warming with no-grazing (WNG) significantly increased the average soil solution DOC concentration to 40 cm soil depth by 14.1 and 17.2% compared with no-warming with no-grazing (NWNG) in 2006 and 2007 respectively based on 1.3-1.4 degrees C soil temperature increase. However| the lack of significant differences among warming with grazing (WG)| no-warming with grazing (NWG) and NWNG indicate that moderate grazing modified the effect of warming on DOC concentration in the soil solution. The effect of grazing on DOC concentration in the soil solution varied with sampling date and soil depth. Generally| the direct contribution of soil temperature and soil moisture to variation of DOC concentration in the soil solution was small. Positive correlations were observed between soil solution DOC concentration in the surface soil and standing death quality and belowground biomass. The Lignin:N ratio in the standing death and belowground biomass at 10 cm soil depth explained 60% of the variation of mean DOC concentration at 10 cm soil depth. Soil moisture and belowground biomass explained 79% of the variation of the mean soil solution DOC concentration to 40 cm soil depth in 2007. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10253,2009,4,4,Effects of increased pCO(2) and temperature on the North Atlantic spring bloom. III. Dimethylsulfoniopropionate,The CLAW hypothesis argues that a negative feedback mechanism involving phytoplankton-derived dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) could mitigate increasing sea surface temperatures that result from global warming. DMSP is converted to the climatically active dimethylsulfide (DMS)| which is transferred to the atmosphere and photochemically oxidized to sulfate aerosols| leading to increases in planetary albedo and cooling of the Earth's atmosphere. A shipboard incubation experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of increased temperature and pCO(2) on the algal community structure of the North Atlantic spring bloom and their subsequent impact on particulate and dissolved DMSP concentrations (DMSP(P) and DMSP(d)). Under 'greenhouse' conditions (elevated pCO(2); 690 ppm) and elevated temperature (ambient + 4 degrees C)| coccolithophorid and pelagophyte abundances were significantly higher than under control conditions (390 ppm CO(2) and ambient temperature). This shift in phytoplankton community structure also resulted in an increase in DMSP(p) concentrations and DMSP(p):chl a ratios. There were also increases in DMSP-lyase activity and biomass-normalized DMSP-lyase activity under 'greenhouse' conditions. Concentrations of DMSP(d) decreased in the 'greenhouse' treatment relative to the control. This decline is thought to be partly due to changes in the microzooplankton community structure and decreased grazing pressure under 'greenhouse' conditions. The increases in DMSP(p) in the high temperature and greenhouse treatments support the CLAW hypothesis; the declines in DMSP(d) do not. 9756,2009,2,4,Effects of long-term experimental night-time warming and drought on photosynthesis| Fv/Fm and stomatal conductance in the dominant species of a Mediterranean shrubland,We conducted a night-time warming and drought field experiment for 7 years (1999-2005) in a Mediterranean shrubland. We focused on the two dominant shrub species| Erica multiflora L. and Globularia alypum L. and the tree Pinus halepensis L. and the final years to study the effects of the experimental night-time warming and drought on Fv/Fm| photosynthesis| and stomatal conductance. Warming treatment increased mean air temperature and mean soil temperature through the years by an average of 0.7 and 0.9A degrees C respectively| and drought treatment reduced soil moisture through the years by an average of 19%. Warming tended to increase photosynthetic rates in E. multiflora| G. alypum and P. halepensis mostly in the cold seasons| when plants were more limited by temperature| as shown by the lowest values of Fv/Fm being detected in winter in the three studied species. A negative effect of warming was only detected for E. multiflora in summer 2003. Drought treatment generated different responses of net photosynthetic rates depending on the species| season and year. Stomatal conductance showed the same pattern as photosynthesis for the three studied species| displaying seasonal and inter-annual variability| although with an overall negative effect of drought for P. halepensis. Photosynthetic rates decreased significantly in the dry winter 2005 and spring 2005 in comparison to the same seasons of 2003 and 2004. There were positive correlations between the photosynthetic rates in different seasons for E. multiflora| G. alypum and P. halepensis and the soil moisture of the week prior to measurements. The great variation in the photosynthetic rates was thus explained in a significant part by soil moisture levels. The lowest Fv/Fm values usually corresponded with lowest stomatal conductances suggesting that drought stress could be associated to stress by low temperatures in winter. 1020,2009,2,4,Effects of long-term exposure to elevated CO(2) conditions in slow-growing plants using a (12)C-enriched CO(2)-labelling technique,Despite their relevancy| long-term studies analyzing elevated CO(2) effect in plant production and carbon (C) management on slow-growing plants are scarce. A special chamber was designed to perform whole-plant above-ground gas-exchange measurements in two slow-growing plants (Chamaerops humilis and Cycas revoluta) exposed to ambient (ca. 400 mu mol mol(-1)) and elevated (ca. 800 mu mol mol(-1)) CO(2) conditions over a long-term period (20 months). The ambient isotopic (13)C/(12)C composition (delta(13)C) of plants exposed to elevated CO(2) conditions was modified (from ca. -12.8 parts per thousand to ca. -19.2 parts per thousand) in order to study carbon allocation in leaf| shoot and root tissues. Elevated CO(2) increased plant growth by ca. 45% and 60% in Chamaerops and Cycas| respectively. The whole-plant above-ground gas-exchange determinations revealed that| in the case of Chamaerops| elevated CO(2) decreased the photosynthetic activity (determined on leaf area basis) as a consequence of the limited ability to increase C sink strength. On the other hand| the larger C sink strength (reflected by their larger CO(2) stimulatory effect on dry mass) in Cycas plants exposed to elevated CO(2) enabled the enhancement of their photosynthetic capacity. The delta(13)C values determined in the different plant tissues (leaf| shoot and root) suggest that Cycas plants grown under elevated CO(2) had a larger ability to export the excess leaf C| probably to the main root. The results obtained highlighted the different C management strategies of both plants and offered relevant information about the potential response of two slow-growing plants under global climate change conditions. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 9529,2009,2,4,Effects of nutrient and temperature on degradation of petroleum hydrocarbons in sub-Antarctic coastal seawater,In an attempt to evaluate the potential of petroleum bioremediation at high latitudes environments| microcosm studies using Antarctic coastal seawater contaminated with diesel or crude oil were conducted in Kerguelen Archipelago (49A degrees 22'S| 70A degrees 12'E). Microcosms were incubated at three different temperatures (4| 10 and 20A degrees C). During experiments| changes observed in microbial assemblages (total direct count| heterotrophic cultivable microorganisms and hydrocarbon-degrading microorganisms) were generally similar for all incubation temperatures| but chemical data showed only some slight changes in biodegradation indices [I (C12-C20) pound/I (C21-C32) pound and C17/pristane]. The complete data set provided strong evidence of the presence of indigenous hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria in Antarctic seawater and their high potential for hydrocarbon bioremediation. The rate of oil degradation could be increased by the addition of a commercial fertilizer| but water temperature had little effects on biodegradation efficiency which is in conflict with the typical temperature-related assumption predicting 50% rate reduction when temperature is reduced by 10A degrees C. Global warming of Antarctic seawater should not increase significantly the rate of oil biodegradation in these remote regions. 882,2009,2,4,Effects of rainfall change on water erosion processes in terrestrial ecosystems: a review,Water erosion is the most destructive erosion type worldwide| causing serious land degradation and environmental deterioration. Against a background of climate change and accelerated human activities| changes in natural rainfall regimes have taken place and will be expected to become more pronounced in future decades. Long-term shifts may challenge the existing cultivation systems worldwide and eventually alter the spatiotemporal patterns of land use and topography. Meanwhile| specific features of soil crusting/sealing| plant litter and its decomposition| and antecedent soil moisture content (ASMC) will accompany rainfall variability. All these changes will increase pressures on soil erosion and hydrological processes| making accurate erosion prediction and control more difficult. An improved knowledge and understanding of this issue| therefore| is essential for dealing with the forthcoming challenges regarding soil and water conservation practices. In this paper| the characteristics of changes in natural rainfall| its role on terrestrial ecosystems| the challenges| and its effect on surface water erosion dynamics are elaborated and discussed. The major priorities for future research are also highlighted| and it is hoped that this will promote a better understanding of water erosion processes and related hydrological issues. 10232,2009,2,4,Effects of rising temperature on the formation and microbial degradation of marine diatom aggregates,Effects of elevated temperature on the formation and subsequent degradation of diatom aggregates were studied in a laboratory experiment with a natural plankton community from the Kiel Fjord (Baltic Sea). Aggregates were derived from diatom blooms that developed in indoor mesocosms at 2.5 and 8.5 degrees C| corresponding to the 1993 to 2002 mean winter in situ temperature of the Western Baltic Sea and the projected sea surface temperature during winter in 2100| respectively. Formation and degradation of diatom aggregates at these 2 temperatures in the dark were promoted with roller tanks over a period of 11 d. Comparison of the 2 temperature settings revealed an enhanced aggregation potential of diatom cells at elevated temperature| which was likely induced by an increased concentration of transparent exopolymer particles (TEP). The enhanced aggregation potential led to a significantly higher proportion of particulate organic matter in aggregates at 8.5 degrees C. Moreover| the elevated temperature favoured the growth of bacteria| bacterial biomass production| and the activities of sugar- and protein-degrading extracellular enzymes in aggregates. Stimulating effects of rising temperature on growth and metabolism of the bacterial community resulted in an earlier onset of aggregate degradation and silica dissolution. Remineralization of carbon in aggregates at elevated temperature was partially compensated by the formation of carbon-rich TEP during dark incubation. Hence| our results suggest that increasing temperature will affect both formation and degradation of diatom aggregates. We conclude that the vertical export of organic matter through aggregates may change in the future| depending on the magnitude and vertical depth penetration of warming in the ocean. 967,2009,2,4,Effects of summer flooding on floodplain biogeochemistry in Poland; implications for increased flooding frequency,The frequency of summer flood events has strongly increased in Eastern Europe during the last decades. The creation of water storage areas to avoid flooding is often combined with the re-creation of more natural and biodiverse riverine systems. This urges the need to understand the consequences of summer inundation| when microbial activity is significantly higher than during winter inundation| for floodplain biogeochemistry. In order to test the interacting effects of temporal flooding| water quality and agricultural use we used a mesocosm design with sods including vegetation from an area along a tributary of the Vistula River| where water storage compartments have been planned. Concentrations of nitrate and sulphate in the flood water| expected to interfere with soil redox processes| were varied at environmentally relevant concentrations. Inundation led to increased nutrient mobilization in all treatments| particularly for phosphate which reached very high concentrations in both soil water (200-300 mu mol l(-1)) and overlaying surface water (25-35 mu mol l(-1)) as a result of iron reduction. The response was clearly linked to different soil characteristics like the Olsen P concentration| probably caused by varying kind of land use. Unexpectedly| the flood water quality played a less important role in the response to short-term flooding. This could partly be explained by the relatively low infiltration rate into these waterlogged soils| indicating the importance of local hydrology. The findings of this study are important to understand and predict the effects of (more frequent) summer flooding of Eastern European rivers. It also indicates that it is necessary to take into account the soil quality in assessing the consequences of planned measures on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. 9538,2009,2,4,Effects of temperature and dietary sterol availability on growth and cholesterol allocation of the aquatic keystone species Daphnia,Enhanced water temperatures promote the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms| which may be detrimental to aquatic herbivores. Especially| the often-dominant crustaceans could be negatively affected because cyanobacteria are deficient in phytosterols| which are required by the crustaceans to form the membrane component cholesterol| which in turn plays a role in thermal adaptation. Here| we determined the influence of temperature on growth| reproduction and the allocation of dietary sterol into somatic tissues and eggs of the keystone species Daphnia magna raised along a dietary cholesterol gradient. Mass-specific growth rates of D. magna increased with the increasing availability of dietary cholesterol up to an incipient limiting level| which increased with increasing temperature. This indicates a higher demand for cholesterol for growth at higher temperatures and may explain the consistently smaller clutch sizes of reproducing females at the highest temperature. The cholesterol content of the individuals increased with increasing dietary cholesterol; this increase was enhanced at higher temperatures| indicating a higher demand for cholesterol for tissues and probably specifically for membranes. Surprisingly| the daphnids showed different allocation strategies with regard to temperature and dietary sterol availability. The cholesterol content of eggs was enhanced at higher temperature| which suggested that females allocate more cholesterol to their offspring| presumably to ensure sufficient egg development. When dietary cholesterol was limiting| however| females did not allocate more cholesterol to their eggs. Our data suggest that during cyanobacterial blooms| a potential dietary sterol limitation of Daphnia can be intensified at higher water temperatures| which can occur with global warming. 10216,2009,2,4,Effects of temperature and light intensity on asexual reproduction of the scyphozoan| Aurelia aurita (L.) in Taiwan,Jellyfish blooms cause problems worldwide| and they may increase with global warming| water pollution| and over fishing. Benthic polyps (scyphistomae) asexually produce buds and small jellyfish (ephyrae)| and this process may determine the population size of the large| swimming scyphomedusae. Environmental factors that affect the asexual reproduction rates include food| temperature| salinity| and light. In this study| polyps of Aurelia aurita (L.)| which inhabit Tapong Bay| southwest Taiwan| were tested in nine combinations of temperature (20| 25| 30 degrees C) and light intensity (372| 56| and 0 lux) in a 12 h light-12 h dark photoperiod. Production of new buds decreased with warmer temperature and stronger light intensity. Warm temperature accelerated strobilation and increased the daily production of ephyrae. The proportion of ephyrae of total asexual reproduction (new buds + ephyrae) increased dramatically in warmer temperature and more light. Survival was reduced in the highest temperature. Strobilation did not occur in the lowest temperature in darkness. All measures of total asexual reproduction indicated that mid- to high temperatures would lead to faster production of more jellyfish. Continuous high temperatures might result in high polyp mortality. Light affected asexual reproduction less than did temperature| only significantly accelerating the strobilation rate. Because the interactive effects of light and temperature were significant for the time period polyps survived and the potential production of jellyfish polyp(-1)| combined light and temperature effects probably are important for strobilation in situ. 807,2009,2,4,Effects of temperature change on demersal fishes in the California Current: a bioenergetics approach,Diverse fish assemblages should feature a range of biological and ecological responses to temperature change. Using preliminary bioenergetics models| I simulated growth and maturation of three California Current groundfish (yelloweye rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus)| sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria)| and spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias)) at fixed temperatures ranging from 5 degrees C to 11 degrees C. I examined three response variables (size at age 1 (W(1))| age at 50% maturity (tau(50%))| and total prey consumption (C)). Yelloweye rockfish responded most strongly for W(1)| which increased 496% as temperature increased from 5 degrees C to 11 degrees C. Spiny dogfish t50% was highly sensitive| declining from >48 years at 5 degrees C to <13 years at 11 degrees C. Age-specific C was most responsive in yelloweye rockfish| increasing by more than fivefold over the range of temperatures| although sablefish likely have greater community-wide impact because their trophic level and absolute feeding rates are higher. Regime shifts| temperature anomalies| or global climate change may directly affect fish energy budgets| elicit range shifts| or produce complex ecological interactions. Studies like this will help managers to identify temperature-sensitive species and anticipate potential changes in populations and diverse communities. 9528,2009,2,4,Effects of temperature on disease progression and swimming stamina in Ichthyophonus-infected rainbow trout| Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum),Rainbow trout| Oncorhynchus mykiss| were infected with Ichthyophonus sp. and held at 10 degrees C| 15 degrees C and 20 degrees C for 28 days to monitor mortality and disease progression. Infected fish demonstrated more rapid onset of disease| higher parasite load| more severe host tissue reaction and reduced mean-day-to-death at higher temperature. In a second experiment| Ichthyophonus-infected fish were reared at 15 degrees C for 16 weeks then subjected to forced swimming at 10 degrees C| 15 degrees C and 20 degrees C. Stamina improved significantly with increased temperature in uninfected fish; however| this was not observed for infected fish. The difference in performance between infected and uninfected fish became significant at 15 degrees C (P = 0.02) and highly significant at 20 degrees C (P = 0.005). These results have implications for changes in the ecology of fish diseases in the face of global warming and demonstrate the effects of higher temperature on the progression and severity of ichthyophoniasis as well as on swimming stamina| a critical fitness trait of salmonids. This study helps explain field observations showing the recent emergence of clinical ichthyophoniasis in Yukon River Chinook salmon later in their spawning migration when water temperatures were high| as well as the apparent failure of a substantial percentage of infected fish to successfully reach their natal spawning areas. 730,2009,2,4,Effects of temperature on gene expression in embryos of the coral Montastraea faveolata,Background: Coral reefs are expected to be severely impacted by rising seawater temperatures associated with climate change. This study used cDNA microarrays to investigate transcriptional effects of thermal stress in embryos of the coral Montastraea faveolata. Embryos were exposed to 27.5 degrees C| 29.0 degrees C| and 31.5 degrees C directly after fertilization. Differences in gene expression were measured after 12 and 48 hours. Results: Analysis of differentially expressed genes indicated that increased temperatures may lead to oxidative stress| apoptosis| and a structural reconfiguration of the cytoskeletal network. Metabolic processes were downregulated| and the action of histones and zinc finger-containing proteins may have played a role in the long-term regulation upon heat stress. Conclusions: Embryos responded differently depending on exposure time and temperature level. Embryos showed expression of stress-related genes already at a temperature of 29.0 degrees C| but seemed to be able to counteract the initial response over time. By contrast| embryos at 31.5 degrees C displayed continuous expression of stress genes. The genes that played a role in the response to elevated temperatures consisted of both highly conserved and coral-specific genes. These genes might serve as a basis for research into coral-specific adaptations to stress responses and global climate change. 785,2009,2,4,EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE ON VENTILATORY BEHAVIOR OF FISH EXPOSED TO SUBLETHAL CONCENTRATIONS OF ENDOSULFAN AND CHLORPYRIFOS,The ventilation amplitude and frequency of silver perch Bidyanus bidyanus| and the ventilation frequency of rainbow fish Melanotaenia duboulayi and rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss| were determined at different temperatures upon exposure to endosulfan and chlorpyrifos| respectively. Silver perch and rainbow fish were tested at 15| 20| 25| 30| and 35 degrees C| while rainbow trout was tested at 10| 15| 20| and 25 degrees C. Although some trend of increasing amplitudes with increasing temperature was evident; there was no significant temperature response of ventilation frequency rates over time in silver perch pre-exposed to 10 mu g L(-1) endosulfan for 18 h. The rate of ventilation frequency of rainbow fish pre-exposed to 200 mu g L(-1) of chlorpyrifos for 96 h was lower in treatments than in the control at 15 degrees C. However| between 20 and 35 degrees C| rates were significantly higher in the treatments than those of the control. In rainbow trout pre-exposed to 100 mu g L(-1) of chlorpyrifos| the rates of frequency were significantly lower than those of controls in temperatures between 10 and 20 degrees C but higher at 25 degrees C. The amplitude of silver perch seemed to increase with the increase in temperature; however| the corresponding temperature quotient values at various temperature regimes and over exposure time showed no significant differences. The ventilation frequency of rainbow fish and rainbow trout significantly increased at the higher test temperatures| and their corresponding temperature quotient values for both fish also increased at the elevated temperatures. 9552,2009,2,4,Effects of temperature| salinity| and water level on the emergence of marine cercariae,With the prospect of large-scale environmental changes| there is an urgent need to obtain information regarding environmental influences acting on the emergence of cercariae in marine systems. We investigated the response of trematodes of the intertidal snail Zeacumantus subcarinatus to altered temperature| salinity| and water level. The emergence of one trematode species| Maritrema novaezealandensis (Microphallidae)| showed a weak trend to decrease with increased temperature; whereas| the emergence of a second species| Philophthalmus sp. (Philophthalmidae)| increased at warmer temperatures. Both species exhibited increased cercarial emergence at the lowest salinity used (30 PSU). More M. novaezealandensis cercariae emerged when snails were kept partially submerged. In contrast| emergence of Philophthalmus sp. increased when snails were completely submerged. These results may reflect different transmission strategies employed by the two trematode species. Based on this model| we propose that trematode parasitism in intertidal zones is likely to be impacted by various changes in the marine environment resulting from global warming. 9398,2009,2,4,Effects of temperature| season and locality on wasting disease in the keystone predatory sea star Pisaster ochraceus,This study investigates wasting disease in the northeast Pacific keystone predatory sea star Pisaster ochraceus on the outer west coast of Vancouver Island (British Columbia| Canada). To quantify the effects of temperature| season and locality on the vulnerability of P. ochraceus to wasting disease| we conducted surveys and experiments in early and late summer. To test the prediction that a small increase in temperature would result in heightened infection intensities| we housed sea stars at different temperatures in the laboratory and caged sea stars subtidally at 2 depths. Prevalence and infection intensity were always higher in warm temperature treatments and did not differ between the sexes or with increasing size. Disease effects also varied with season and locality. Specimens held in aquaria displayed significantly higher disease prevalence and infection intensity in June versus August. Furthermore| sea stars from a sheltered inlet showed markedly higher prevalence of the disease in late summer| while wave-exposed sites had consistently low disease prevalence. Seasonal changes in reproductive potential| host condition and/or physiological acclimation| as well as differences in environmental regime among localities| may impact the dynamics of wasting disease. These results demonstrate that small increases in temperature could drive mass mortalities of Pisaster due to wasting disease| with vulnerability possibly reaching a peak in spring and in populations from sheltered localities. This is the most northern report of wasting disease in the class Asteroidea on the west coast of North America. 9965,2009,3,4,Effects of Water Network Synthesis on the Air Pollutant Emissions and Energy Consumption of a Whole Economy,Environmental and energy performances of a water network system (WNS) utilizing water reuse are compared to those of a conventional water system (CWS) supplying only freshwater from the perspective of an entire economy and life cycle. Environmental input-output analysis (EIOA) is used to evaluate their air pollutant emissions and energy consumptions. The global warming potential and the emissions of carbon monoxide and of volatile organic compounds from the WNS are less than those from the CWS because of the decrease in the consumption of industrial water| while the emissions of sulfur dioxide and of nitrogen oxides and energy consumption from the WNS are greater because of the increase in electricity consumption for pumping. For perfectly environmentally-friendly water reuse| electricity consumption should be constrained or optimized in water network synthesis| and primary energy mix for electricity generation should be shifted towards renewable energy. 9444,2009,3,3,Efficiency of energy recovery from municipal solid waste and the resultant effect on the greenhouse gas balance,Global warming is a focus of political interest and life-cycle assessment of waste management systems reveals that energy recovery from municipal solid waste is a key issue. This paper demonstrates how the greenhouse gas effects of waste treatment processes can be described in a simplified manner by considering energy efficiency indicators. For evaluation to be consistent| it is necessary to use reasonable system boundaries and to take the generation of electricity and the use of heat into account. The new European R1 efficiency criterion will lead to the development and implementation of optimized processes/systems with increased energy efficiency which| in turn| will exert an influence on the greenhouse gas effects of waste management in Europe. Promising technologies are: the increase of steam parameters| reduction of in-plant energy consumption| and the combined use of heat and power. Plants in Brescia and Amsterdam are current examples of good performance with highly efficient electricity generation. Other examples of particularly high heat recovery rates are the energy-from-waste (EfW) plants in Malmo and Gothenburg. To achieve the full potential of greenhouse gas reduction in waste management| it is necessary to avoid landfilling combustible wastes| for example| by means of landfill taxes and by putting incentives in place for increasing the efficiency of EfW systems. 10085,2009,3,3,Efficiency Optimization Control of Single-Phase Induction Motor Drives,The recent rising of oil prices and global warming crises increasingly support the ongoing practice of loss minimization control of electric motors including single-phase induction ones as the most used motors. Therefore| the tendency toward using variable-speed drives (VSDs) to save energy by adjusting motor speed is seen| but on account of increasing motor loss in nonrated conditions| an efficiency control system can improve energy saving even more. In this paper| after carrying out a detailed motor efficiency analysis| an appropriate method for motor efficiency maximization control| combined with a VSD| is presented and implemented. Experimental results of the implemented system validate the proposed method. 9568,2009,2,2,El Nino in a changing climate,El Nino events| characterized by anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean| have global climatic teleconnections and are the most dominant feature of cyclic climate variability on subdecadal timescales. Understanding changes in the frequency or characteristics of El Nino events in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Recent studies(1-5) show that the canonical El Nino has become less frequent and that a different kind of El Nino has become more common during the late twentieth century| in which warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific are flanked on the east and west by cooler SSTs. This type of El Nino| termed the central Pacific El Nino (CP-El Nino; also termed the dateline El Nino(2)| El Nino Modoki(3) or warm pool El Nino(5))| differs from the canonical eastern Pacific El Nino (EP-El Nino) in both the location of maximum SST anomalies and tropical-midlatitude teleconnections. Here we show changes in the ratio of CP-El Nino to EP-El Nino under projected global warming scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 multi-model data set(6). Using calculations based on historical El Nino indices| we find that projections of anthropogenic climate change are associated with an increased frequency of the CP-El Nino compared to the EP-El Nino. When restricted to the six climate models with the best representation of the twentieth-century ratio of CP-El Nino to EP-El Nino| the occurrence ratio of CP-El Nino/EP-El Nino is projected to increase as much as five times under global warming. The change is related to a flattening of the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific. 9301,2009,2,3,El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming,The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon| originating in the Tropical Pacific| is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO| although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude| others a decrease| and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless| some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system| smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological| chemical| and even socioeconomic systems. For example| the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model ( with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century| which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2)| accelerating global warming. 9844,2009,2,4,Elevated temperature reduces survivorship and settlement of the larvae of the Caribbean scleractinian coral| Favia fragum (Esper),The effect of elevated seawater temperatures| such as those plaguing tropical seas during the summers of anomalously warm years| on early life stages of reef corals remains poorly studied. To redress this situation| survivorship of larvae of the brooding coral| Favia fragum| was studied in the laboratory| using both short term (48 h) and long term (156-191 h) exposures to 28| 29| and 31A degrees C. Ability to settle when presented with induction substrates and survival after settlement| at the same exposure temperature and after reciprocal transfers to the other experimental temperatures| were also measured. No significant effect of temperature on survivorship was detected after 48 h of exposure| but larvae incubated for 156 h at the highest temperature (31A degrees C) exhibited a 13% reduced survivorship compared to larvae at 28A degrees C. Induction of settlement further increased mortality at the highest temperature (31A degrees C); survivorship after settlement at 31A degrees C was 27% lower than when larvae were simply maintained at the elevated temperature. These results indicate that elevated temperatures are more detrimental to coral larvae undergoing the developmentally complex settlement process than to the swimming planula stage. This may bode poorly for Caribbean corals with late summer reproductive seasons. 9668,2009,4,3,Elevation dependency of recent and future minimum surface air temperature trends in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings,Elevation dependency of climate change signals has been found over major mountain ranges such as the European Alps and the Rockies| as well as over the Tibetan Plateau. In this study we examined the temporal trends in monthly mean minimum temperatures from 116 weather stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity during 1961-2006. We also analyzed projected climate changes in the entire Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings from two sets of modeling experiments under future global warming conditions. These analyses included the output of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) with approximately 150 km horizontal resolution for the scenario of annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO(2) for future 100 years and physically-based downscaling results from the NCAR CAM3/CLM3 model at 10' x 10' resolution during three 20-year mean periods (1980-1999| 2030-2049 and 2080-2099) for the IPCC mid-range emission (A1B) scenario. We divided the 116 weather stations and the regional model grids into elevation zones of 500 m interval to examine the relationship of climatic warming and elevation. With these corroborating datasets| we were able to confirm the elevation dependency in monthly mean minimum temperature in and around the Tibetan Plateau. The warming is more prominent at higher elevations than at lower elevations| especially during winter and spring seasons| and such a tendency may continue in future climate change scenarios. The elevation dependency is most likely caused by the combined effects of cloud-radiation and snow-albedo feedbacks among various influencing factors. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10272,2009,3,2,Emission Characteristics of a Diesel Engine Fueled by 25% Sunflower Oil Methyl Ester and 75% Diesel Fuel Blend,Combustion of fossil fuels is the main culprit in increasing the global carbondioxide level| a consequence of global warming. Diesel engines are the major source of greenhouse gas emissions (CO2) and other air pollutants| such as HC| CO| NOx| and smoke. One way of reducing these emissions or air pollutants is by the utilization of renewable alternative fuels for diesel engines| like vegetable oils. High viscosity is one of the major problems relating to the direct use of vegetable oils as diesel fuels. One method of reducing viscosity is by blending with a low viscosity and volatile fuel. This article investigates the emission characteristics of the fuel blend of 25% sunflower oil methyl ester with 75% diesel fuel (25/75 fuel) in a single cylinder unmodified diesel engine. The results show that 25/75 fuel has better emission characteristics than diesel fuel. 9746,2009,3,4,Emission of CO(2) and N(2)O from soil cultivated with common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) fertilized with different N sources,Addition of different forms of nitrogen fertilizer to cultivated soil is known to affect carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions. In this study| the effect of urea| wastewater sludge and vermicomposton emissions of CO(2) and N(2)O in soil cultivated with bean was investigated. Beans were cultivated in the greenhouse in three consecutive experiments| fertilized with or without wastewater sludge at two application rates (33 and 55 Mg fresh wastewater sludge ha(-1)| i.e. 48 and 80 kg N ha(-1) considering a N mineralization rate of 40%)| vermicompost derived from the wastewater sludge (212 Mg ha(-1)| i.e. 80 kg N ha(-1)) or urea (170 kg ha(-1)| i.e. 80 kg N ha(-1))| while pH| electrolytic conductivity (EC)| inorganic nitrogen and CO(2) and N(2)O emissions were monitored. Vermicompost added to soil increased EC at onset of the experiment| but thereafter values were similar to the other treatments. Most of the NO(3)(-) was taken up by the plants| although some was leached from the upper to the lower soil layer. CO(2) emission was 375 C kg ha(-1) y(-1) in the unamended soil| 340 kg C ha(-1) y(-1) in the urea-amended soil and 839 kg ha(-1) y(-1) in the vermicompost-amended soil. N(2)O emission was 2.92 kg N ha(-1) y(-1) in soil amended with 55 Mg wastewater sludge ha(-1)| but only 0.03 kg N ha(-1) y(-1) in the unamended soil. The emission of CO(2) was affected by the phenological stage of the plant while organic fertilizer increased the CO(2) and N(2)O emission| and the yield per plant Environmental and economic implications must to be considered to decide how many| how often and what kind of organic fertilizer could be used to increase yields| while limiting soil deterioration and greenhouse gas emissions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9405,2009,3,3,Emission operational strategy for combined cooling| heating| and power systems,Integrated Energy Systems (IES)| as technology that use thermal activated components to recover waste heat| are energy systems that offer key solution to global warming and energy security through high overall energy efficiency and better fuel use. Combined cooling| heating| and power (CCHP) systems are IES that use recovered thermal energy from the prime mover to produce heating and cooling for the building. The CCHP operational strategy is critical and it has to be considered in a well designed system since it defines the ultimate goal for the benefits expected from the system. One of the most common operational strategies is the cost-oriented strategy| which allows the system to operate at the lowest cost. A primary energy strategy (PES) optimizes energy consumption instead of cost. However| as a result of the worldwide concern about global warming| projects that target reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have gained a lot of interest. Therefore| for a CCHP system| an emission strategy (ES) would be an operational strategy oriented to minimize emission of pollutants. In this study| the use of an ES is proposed for CCHP systems targeted to reduce emission of pollutants. The primary energy consumption (PEC) reduction and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emission reduction obtained using the proposed ES are compared with results obtained from the use of a PES. Results show that lower emission of CO(2) is achieved with the ES when compared with the PES| which prove the advantage of the ES for the design of CCHP systems targeted to emissions reduction. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9623,2009,2,4,Emissions of volatile organic compounds and leaf structural characteristics of European aspen (Populus tremula) grown under elevated ozone and temperature,Northern forest trees are challenged to adapt to changing climate| including global warming and increasing tropospheric ozone (O(3)) concentrations. Both elevated O(3) and temperature can cause significant changes in volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions as well as in leaf anatomy that can be related to adaptation or increased stress tolerance| or are signs of damage. Impacts of moderately elevated O(3) (1.3 x ambient) and temperature (ambient + 1 degrees C)| alone and in combination| on VOC emissions and leaf structure of two genotypes (2.2 and 5.2) of European aspen (Populus tremula L.) were studied in an open-field experiment in summer 2007. The impact of O(3) on measured variables was minor| but elevated temperature significantly increased emissions of total monoterpenes and green leaf volatiles. Genotypic differences in the responses to warming treatment were also observed. a-Pinene emission| which has been suggested to protect plants from elevated temperature| increased from genotype 5.2 only. Isoprene emission from genotype 2.2 decreased| whereas genotype 5.2 was able to retain high isoprene emission level also under elevated temperature. Elevated temperature also caused formation of thinner leaves| which was related to thinning of epidermis| palisade and spongy layers as well as reduced area of palisade cells. We consider aspen genotype 5.2 to have better potential for adaptation to increasing temperature because of thicker photosynthetic active palisade layer and higher isoprene and a-pinene emission levels compared to genotype 2.2. Our results show that even a moderate elevation in temperature is efficient enough to cause notable changes in VOC emissions and leaf structure of these aspen genotypes| possibly indicating the effort of the saplings to adapt to changing climate. 9289,2009,5,4,End-Guadalupian extinction of the Permian gigantic bivalve Alatoconchidae: End of gigantism in tropical seas by cooling,The unique Permian bivalve family Alatoconchidae has aberrant shell forms and extraordinary size up to 1 m| representing the largest bivalve group in the Paleozoic. Their occurrence is reported sporadically from Lower-Middle Permian shallow-marine carbonates in 9 areas in the world (Tunisia| Croatia| Oman| Iran| Afghanistan| Thailand| Malaysia| the Philippines| and Japan) that cover low-latitudes of both the Tethyan and Panthalassan domains. Alatoconchids almost always occurred in close association with large-tested fusulines (Verbeekinidae) and/or rugose corals (Waagenophyllidae) of the typical Tethyan assemblage| suggesting their preferential adaptation to shallow warm-water (tropical) environments. This "tropical trio" (Alatoconchidae| Verbeekinidae| and Waagenophyllidae) became extinct either during the Late Guadalupian or around the Guadalupian-Lopingian boundary (G-LB). Their intimate association and occurrence range suggest that these 3 taxonomically distinct clades may have shared not only a common habit but also a common cause of extinction. The shell structure of alatoconchids suggests their symbiosis with photosynthetic organisms (algae+ cyanobacteria) in order to maintain their large body size that required high energy-consuming metabolism in contrast to smaller forms. The Alatoconchidae attained their largest size in the Wordian (Middle Guadalupian)| probably maximizing the benefits of photosymbiosis. The subsequent extinction of the warm-water-adapted "tropical trio" both in Tethys and Panthalassa positively supports the explanation that a critical cooling took place on a global scale| including low-latitude oceans. The end of the gigantism in fusulines and bivalves in the Capitanian (Late Guadalupian) was likely caused by the collapse of photosymbiotic systems during a temporary temperature drop of seawater (Kamura cooling event) coupled with eutrophication that was detrimental to the tropical fauna adapted particularly to oligotrophic conditions. Gigantism of bivalves occurred several times in the Phanerozoic; e.g.| Siluro-Devonian| Permian| Triassic-Early Jurassic| and Jurassic-Creataceous| mostly in warm periods. The sea-level change in the Phanerozoic apparently synchronized with the intermittent rise and decline of bivalve gigantism| suggesting that the photosymbiosis-related gigantism in low-latitudes may serve as a potential monitor of global warming/cooling in the past. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 841,2009,2,4,Endocrine disruption in the context of life cycles: Perception and transduction of environmental cues,Environmental and social stresses have major impacts on the life cycles of organisms. Furthermore| habitat disturbance/destruction| global climate change| and existence of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) due to human activities are increasingly likely to pose additive and synergistic stresses that could have potential deleterious effects on physiological function in vertebrates. Central to an organism's life cycle is the ability to respond to environmental cues| physical and social. Environmental signals may act directly on endocrine tissues| but most act through neural pathways| and neuroendocrine and endocrine secretions that affect changes in morphology| physiology and behavior. While most investigations focus on endocrine secretions and their effects| we know much less about perception and transduction of environmental signals. Additionally| some populations of vertebrates| from fish to mammals| temporarily resist environmental and social stresses| and breed successfully. However| many show varying degrees of failure| sometimes resulting in marked population decline. There is potential for EDCs to act at all levels of the response systems to environmental cues. Because animals live in diverse habitats| there is variation in susceptibility to disruption of response systems to environmental cues. Although this may be partly due to genetic differences at a level of receptors and/or metabolism| fundamental differences in how species perceive environmental cues and respond to them may also be major factors. Here we discuss how EDCs may interact with the perception and transduction of environmental cues that are important for all organisms in their natural world. This may introduce a new perspective on the effects of environmental endocrine disruptors. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 9837,2009,3,3,Energy and greenhouse gas emission savings of biofuels in Spain's transport fuel. The adoption of the EU policy on biofuels,Using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) the fossil energy benefits and avoided global warming emissions have been evaluated for the EU Biofuels goals in Spain. The Biofuels considered are cereal ethanol| biodiesel from residual oils| and from palm| sunflower| soybeans and rapeseed vegetable oils. Our findings are that the source of the cereal and vegetable oil influences the efficacy of the Biofuels and that results greatly depend on whether or not electricity has been produced as co-product in bioethanol plants and that without CHP the energy balance of ethanol is negative with few greenhouse gas offsets. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9738,2009,3,4,Energy consumption patterns and economic analysis of irrigated wheat and rainfed wheat production: Case study for Tokat region| Turkey,The aim of this study was to determine the input-output energy consumption and to make a cost analysis of both irrigated wheat and tainted wheat production in Tokat province (Turkey). The results showed that the amount of energy consumed in irrigated wheat production was 13|205.90 MJ ha(-1) and in rainfed wheat production was 14|134.93 MJ ha(-1). In the surveyed farm holdings| the energy input-output ratio for the irrigated wheat was 3.80| while benefit-cost ratio was 0.81. The productivity of irrigated wheat was calculated to be 3.67. The energy input-output ratio for rainfed wheat was 2.51| while the benefit-cost ratio was 0.53. The productivity of rainfed wheat was calculated to be 2.43. About 77% of the total energy inputs used in irrigated wheat production were non-renewable| while only about 23% was renewable. The total energy input used in rainfed wheat production was non-renewable 75% and 25% renewable energy. This study suggested that diesel-oil and fertilizers were not efficiently used. Intensive input use in irrigated wheat and rainfed wheat raises some problems like environmental pollution and global warming. 9642,2009,3,4,Energy use and environmental impacts: A general review,Globally| buildings are responsible for approximately 40% of the total world annual energy consumption. Most of this energy is for the provision of lighting| heating| cooling| and air conditioning. Increasing awareness of the environmental impact of CO(2) and NO(x) emissions and chlorofluorocarbons triggered a renewed interest in environmentally friendly cooling and heating technologies. Under the 1997 Montreal Protocol| governments agreed to phase out chemicals used as refrigerants that have the potential to destroy stratospheric ozone. It was therefore considered desirable to reduce energy consumption and decrease the rate of depletion of world energy reserves and pollution of the environment. One way of reducing building energy consumption is to design buildings that are more economical in their use of energy for heating| lighting| cooling| ventilation| and hot water supply. Passive measures| particularly natural or hybrid ventilation rather than air conditioning| can dramatically reduce primary energy consumption. However| exploitation of renewable energy in buildings and agricultural greenhouses can also significantly contribute toward reducing dependency on fossil fuels. Therefore| promoting innovative renewable applications and reinforcing the renewable energy market will contribute to preservation of the ecosystem by reducing emissions at local and global levels. This will also contribute to the amelioration of environmental conditions by replacing conventional fuels with renewable energies that produce no air pollution or greenhouse gases. The provision of good indoor environmental quality (IEQ) while achieving energy and cost efficient operation of the heating| ventilating| and air-conditioning plants in buildings represents a multivariant problem. The comfort of building occupants is dependent on many environmental parameters including air speed| temperature| relative humidity| and quality in addition to lighting and noise. The overall objective is to provide a high level of building performance| which can be defined as IEQ| energy efficiency (EE)| and cost efficiency (CE). IEQ is the perceived condition of comfort that building occupants experience due to the physical and psychological conditions to which they are exposed by their surroundings. The main physical parameters affecting IEQ are air speed| temperature| relative humidity| and quality. EE is related to the provision of the desired environmental conditions while consuming the minimal quantity of energy. CE is the financial expenditure on energy relative to the level of environmental comfort and productivity that the building occupants attained. The overall CE can be improved by improving the IEQ and the EE of a building. The increased availability of reliable and efficient energy services stimulates new development alternatives. Anticipated patterns of future energy use and consequent environmental impacts (acid precipitation| ozone depletion| and greenhouse effect or global warming) are comprehensively discussed in this paper. Throughout the theme several issues relating to renewable energies| environment| and sustainable development are examained from both current and future perspectives. It is concluded that renewable environmentally friendly energy must be encouraged| promoted| implemented| and demonstrated by full-scale plant especially for use in remote rural areas. (C) 2009 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3220701] 9431,2009,3,4,Energy use and recovery in waste management and implications for accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions,The energy system plays an essential role in accounting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from waste management systems and waste technologies. This paper focuses on energy use and energy recovery in waste management and outlines how these aspects should be addressed consistently in a GHG perspective. Essential GHG emission data for the most common fuels| electricity and heat are provided. Average data on electricity provision show large variations from country to country due to different fuels being used and different efficiencies for electricity production in the individual countries (0.007-1.13 kg CO(2)-eq.kWh(-1)). Marginal data on electricity provision show even larger variations (0.004-3 kg CO(2)-eq.kWh(-1)). Somewhat less variation in GHG emissions is being found for heat production (0.01-0.69 kg CO(2)-eq.kWh(-1)). The paper further addresses allocation principles and the importance of applying either average or marginal energy data| and it discusses the consequences of introducing reduction targets on CO(2) emissions. All discussed aspects were found to significantly affect the outcome of GHG accounts suggesting transparent reporting to be critical. Recommendations for use of average/marginal energy data are provided. 1030,2009,4,4,Enhanced Classifications of Engineered Paved Surfaces for Urban System Modeling,There is a greater need than ever for the ability to accurately model urban system impacts resulting around the planet. Rapid urbanization is transforming landscapes from vegetation to an engineered infrastructure and thus altering land cover and land use. These alterations impact urban and global climate change| energy demand| human health| and ecological service functions. This article presents an overview of a refined land-cover classification protocol that seeks to refine current land-cover classifications of engineered paved surfaces. This new approach provides those who model urban systems and engineer the environment as well as other scientists and policy makers an expanded understanding of how intervention to the system can most effectively be accomplished through enhanced modeling. An object-oriented analysis regime is presented for an industrial park utilizing commercial software in conjunction with multispectral [Graphics] and panchromatic Quickbird satellite imagery. A detailed examination of hot-mix asphalt paved surfaces was undertaken in relation to the materials' engineered function such as various types of streets| parking| etc. The results were validated using a commercial raster graphics editor and data analysis software as well as on-site inspections. An overall accuracy of 95% was achieved. 9744,2009,4,3,Enhanced Mass Transfer of CO(2) into Water: Experiment and Modeling,Concern over global warming has increased interest in quantification of the dissolution Of CO(2) in (sub-)-surface water. The mechanisms of the mass transfer of CO(2) in aquifers and of transfer to surface water have many common features. The advantage of experiments using bulk water is that the underlying assumptions to the quantify mass-transfer rate can be validated. Dissolution Of CO(2) into water (or oil) increases the density of the liquid phase. This density change destabilizes the interface and enhances the transfer rate across the interface by natural convection. This paper describes a series of experiments performed in a cylindrical PVT-cell at a pressure range of p(i) = 10-50 bar| where a fixed volume Of CO(2) gas was brought into contact with a column of distilled water. The transfer rate is inferred by following the gas pressure history. The results show that the mass-transfer rate across the interface is much faster than that predicted by Fickian diffusion and| increases with increasing initial gas pressure. The theoretical interpretation of the observed effects is based on diffusion and natural convection phenomena. The CO(2) concentration at the interface is estimated from the gas pressure using Henry's solubility law| in which the coefficient varies with both pressure and temperature. Good agreement between the experiments and the theoretical results has been obtained. 10168,2009,3,3,Enhancement of carbon dioxide removal in a hydrogen-permselective methanol synthesis reactor,One of the major problems facing mankind in 21st century is the global warming which is induced by the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. One of the most promising processes for controlling the atmospheric CO(2) level is conversion of CO(2) to methanol by catalytic hydrogenation. In this paper| the conversion of CO(2) in a membrane dual-type methanol synthesis reactor is investigated. A dynamic model for this methanol synthesis reactor was developed in the presence of long-term catalyst deactivation. This model is used to compare the removal of CO(2) in a membrane dual-type methanol synthesis reactor with a conventional dual-type methanol synthesis reactor. A conventional dual-type methanol synthesis reactor is a vertical shell and tube heat exchanger in which the first reactor is cooled with cooling water and the second one is cooled with synthesis gas. In a membrane dual-type methanol synthesis reactor| the wall of the tubes in the conventional gas-cooled reactor is covered with a palladium-silver membrane| which is only permeable to hydrogen. Hydrogen can penetrate from the feed synthesis gas side into the reaction side due to the hydrogen partial pressure driving force. Hydrogen permeation through the membrane shifts the reaction towards the product side according to the thermodynamic equilibrium. The proposed dynamic model was validated against measured daily process data of a methanol plant recorded for a period of 4 years and a good agreement was achieved. (C) 2008 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10171,2009,3,4,Environmental and economic life cycle assessment for sewage sludge treatment processes in Japan,Life cycle assessment for sewage sludge treatment was carried out by estimating the environmental and economic impacts of the six alternative scenarios most often used in Japan: dewatering| composting| drying| incineration| incinerated ash melting and dewatered sludge melting| each with or without digestion. Three end-of-life treatments were also studied: landfilling| agricultural application and building material application. The results demonstrate that sewage sludge digestion can reduce the environmental load and cost through reduced dry matter volume. The global warming potential (GWP) generated from incineration and melting processes can be significantly reduced through the reuse of waste heat for electricity and/or heat generation. Equipment production in scenarios except dewatering has an important effect oil GWP| whereas the contribution of construction is negligible. In addition| the results show that the dewatering scenario has the highest impact on land use and cost| the drying scenario has the highest impact on GWP and acidification| and the incinerated ash melting scenario has the highest impact on human toxicity due to re-emissions of heavy metals from incinerated ash in the melting unit process. 017 the contrary| the dewatering| composting and incineration scenarios generate the lowest impact on human toxicity| land use and acidification| respectively| and the incinerated ash melting scenario has the lowest impact on GWP and cost. Heavy metals released from atmospheric effluents generated the highest human toxicity impact| with the effect of dioxin emissions being significantly lower. This study proved that the dewatered sludge melting scenario is an environmentally optimal and economically affordable method. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9695,2009,3,3,Environmental assessment of Ammassuo Landfill (Finland) by means of LCA-modelling (EASEWASTE),The Old Ammassuo Landfill (Espoo| Finland) covers an area of 52 hectares and contains about 10 million tonnes of waste that was landfilled between 1987 and 2007. The majority of this waste was mixed| of which about 57% originated from households. This paper aims at describing the management of the Old Ammassuo Landfill throughout its operational lifetime (1987-2007)| and at developing an environmental evaluation based on life-cycle assessment (LCA) using the EASEWASTE-model. The assessment criteria evaluate specific categories of impact| including standard impact categories| toxicity-related impact categories and an impact categorized as spoiled groundwater resources (SGR). With respect to standard and toxicity-related impact categories| the LCA results show that substantial impact potentials are estimated for global warming (GW)| ozone depletion (OD)| human toxicity via soil (HTs) and ecotoxicity in water chronic (ETwc). The largest impact potential was found for SGR and amounted to 57.6 person equivalent (PE) per tonne of landfilled waste. However| the SGR impact may not be viewed as a significant issue in Finland as the drinking water is mostly supplied from surface water bodies. Overall| the results demonstrate that gas management has great importance to the environmental performance of the Old Ammassuo Landfill. However| several chemicals related to gas composition (especially trace compounds) and specific emissions from on-site operations were not available or were not measured and were therefore taken from the literature. Measurement campaigns and field investigations should be undertaken in order to obtain a more robust and comprehensive dataset that can be used in the LCA-modelling| before major improvements regarding landfill management are finalized. 9931,2009,3,3,Environmental assessment of gas management options at the Old Ammassuo landfill (Finland) by means of LCA-modeling (EASEWASTE),The current landfill gas (LFG) management (based on flaring and utilization for heat generation of the collected gas) and three potential future gas management options (LFG flaring| heat generation and combined heat and power generation) for the Old Ammassuo landfill (Espoo| Finland) were evaluated by life-cycle assessment modeling. The evaluation accounts for all resource utilization and emissions to the environment related to the gas generation and management for a life-cycle time horizon of 100 yr. The assessment criteria comprise standard impact categories (global warming| photo-chemical ozone formation. stratospheric ozone depletion| acidification and nutrient enrichment) and toxicity-related impact categories (human toxicity via soil| via water and via air| eco-toxicity in soil and in water chronic). The results of the life-cycle impact assessment show that disperse emissions of LFC from the landfill surface determine the highest potential impacts in terms of global warming| stratospheric Ozone depletion| and human toxicity Via Soil. Conversely| the impact potentials estimated for other categories are numerically-negative when the collected LFG| is utilized for energy generation| demonstrating that net environmental savings call be obtained. Such savings are proportional to the amount Of gas utilized for energy generation and the gas energy recovery efficiency achieved| which thus have to be regarded as key parameters| As a result| the overall best performance is found for the heat generation option - as it has the highest LEG utilization/energy recovery rates - whereas the worst performance is estimated for the LEG flaring option| as no LEG is here Utilized for energy generation. Therefore| to reduce the environmental burdens caused by the Current gas management strategy| more LEG should be used for energy generation. This inherently requires a superior LEG capture rate that| in addition| would reduce fugitive emissions of LFC; from the landfill surface| bringing further environmental benefits. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9639,2009,3,3,Environmental assessment of German electricity generation from coal-fired power plants with amine-based carbon capture,One of the most important sources of global carbon dioxide emissions is the combustion of fossil fuels for power generation. Power plants contribute more than 40% of the worldwide anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Therefore| the increased requirements for climate protection are a great challenge for the power producers. In this context a significant increase in power plant efficiency will contribute to reduce specific CO(2) emissions. Additionally| CO(2) capture and storage (CCS) is receiving considerable attention as a greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation option. CCS allows continued use of fossil fuels with no or little CO(2) emissions given to the atmosphere. This could approve a moderate transition to a low-carbon energy generation over the next decades. Currently| R&D activities in the field of CCS are mainly concentrated on the development of capture techniques| the geological assessment of CO(2) storage reservoirs| and on economic aspects. Although first studies on material and energy flows caused by CCS are available| a broader environmental analysis is necessary to show the overall environmental impacts of CCS. The objectives in this paper are coal-based power plants with and without CO(2) capture via mono-ethanolamine (MEA) and the comparison of their environmental effects based on life cycle assessment methodology (LCA). This LCA study examines the environmental and human health effects of power generation of five coal-based steam power plants| which differ in the year of installation (2005| 2010| 2020)| the conversion efficiency| and in the ability and efficiency to capture CO(2). For the removal of CO(2) from combustion and gasification processes in power plants| three main technology concepts exist: (1) pre-combustion technology| (2) oxyfuel combustion systems| and (3) post-combustion separation. As post-combustion technology shows the highest level of maturity| this study concentrates on this route| focusing on capture using mono-ethanolamine (MEA). The analysis regards the post-combustion retrofit of coal power plants with MEA to be a general option in 2020. Material and energy flows are balanced on the level of single processes as well as for the whole process chains. The life cycle inventory clearly shows decreasing inputs and outputs according to the efficiency increase from 43% to 49% in case of the power plants without CO(2) capture. In case of the MEA plants| all inputs and emissions raise| according to the additional energy consumption| except CO(2) and sulphur dioxide. The strong decrease of SO(2) partly results from the necessary improvement of desulphurisation if MEA wash is used. The influence of up and downstream activities on the results is determined. For the MEA plants| a considerable effect of up and downstream activities on the overall results is observed. Finally| the inventory results are assigned to selected impact categories. Global warming (GWP)| human toxicity (HTP)| acidification (AP)| photo-oxidant formation (POCP)| eutrophication (EP)| and primary energy demand are adopted as impact categories. The impact assessment indicates decreasing impacts for all categories with increasing combustion efficiency for the coal plants without carbon capture. As expected| the GWP for the MEA plants is much lower than for the power plants without CO(2) capture. In contrast to this| the HTP and the EP are much higher (up to three times) for the MEA plants. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the origin of coal and the corresponding transport distances have a significant impact on the overall results. Furthermore| it is concluded from the sensitivity analysis that for CCS systems the length of CO(2) pipeline has a negligible effect in comparison with the effect of capture efficiency. The LCA is completed by a normalisation of the environmental impact categories. The development of combustion efficiency in case of the power plants without CO(2) capture has the main influence on the decreasing mass flows at the input side. The energy penalty of the MEA plants affects the use of the inputs into the opposite direction. Although the power producer's focus is on the power plant| the sense of a life cycle assessment is an integrated environmental assessment of the full life cycle of a product (here 1 kWh) including up and downstream processes. Therefore| the inventory results are presented without and with up and downstream processes. The inventory analysis clearly shows the significant influence of the up and downstream processes on the overall emissions. This influence is higher for the MEA plants than for the power plants without capture. In case of CO(2) emissions| the significance of up and downstream processes is especially considerable (approx. 30%). Sensitivity analysis reveals that the origin of coal and the corresponding transport distances have a significant impact on the overall results. The results point out that the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere is achieved at the expense of increasing other emissions and corresponding environmental impacts. In most cases the influence of up and downstream processes is significant. Therefore| life cycle approaches are necessary to get a holistic evaluation. It also shows that the implementation of new techniques can change the environmental assessment of the process chain and| thus| positive and negative effects have to be compared and weighed up against each other. As there exist several possible technical options for CO(2) capture| further studies are necessary to compare the overall environmental effects of competing capture concepts such as pre-combustion and oxyfuel technology. Additionally| gas separating membranes should be part of further studies as they have the potential to contribute to all three main capture technology routes. Further studies with more detail and reliable inventories for CO(2) compression and liquefaction as well as for gas conditioning as an interface between CO(2) capture and transport are needed. Furthermore| the environmental effects including long-term CO(2) emission from the storage sites are recommended. 10284,2009,3,3,Environmental assessment of solid waste landfilling technologies by means of LCA-modeling,By using life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling| this paper compares the environmental performance of six landfilling technologies (open dump| conventional landfill with flares| conventional landfill with energy recovery| standard bioreactor landfill| flushing bioreactor landfill and semi-aerobic landfill) and assesses the influence of the active operations practiced on these performances. The environmental assessments have been performed by means of the LCA-based tool EASEWASTE| whereby the functional unit utilized for the LCA is "landfilling of I ton of wet household waste in a 10 on deep landfill for 100 years". The assessment criteria include standard categories (global warming| nutrient enrichment| ozone depletion| photo-chemical ozone formation and acidification)| toxicity-related categories (human toxicity and ecotoxicity) and impact on spoiled groundwater resources. Results demonstrate that it is crucially important to ensure the highest collection efficiency of landfill gas and leachate since a poor capture compromises the overall environmental performance. Once gas and leachate are collected and treated| the potential impacts in the standard environmental categories and on spoiled groundwater resources significantly decrease| although at the same time specific emissions from gas treatment lead to increased impact potentials in the toxicity-related categories. Gas utilization for energy recovery leads to saved emissions and avoided impact potentials in several environmental categories. Measures should be taken to prevent leachate infiltration to groundwater and it is essential to collect and treat the generated leachate. The bioreactor technologies recirculate the collected leachate to enhance the waste degradation process. This allows the gas collection period to be reduced from 40 to 15 years| although it does not lead to noticeable environmental benefits when considering a 100 years LCA-perspective. In order to more comprehensively understand the influence of the active operations (i.e.| leachate recirculation| waste flushing and air injection) on the environmental performance| the time horizon of the assessment has been split into two time periods: years 0-15 and 16-100. Results show that if these operations are combined with gas utilization and leachate treatment| they are able to shorten the time frame that emissions lead to environmental impacts of concerti. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10118,2009,3,4,Environmental assessment of yield improvements obtained by the use of the enzyme phospholipase in mozzarella cheese production,Phospholipase is an enzyme which is able to increase the yield of cheese in| for instance| mozzarella production. Milk production is the most important source of environmental impacts in cheese production and it is obvious to assume that the milk saving that comes with the use of phospholipase reduces the overall environmental impacts of the final product. Production of industrial phospholipase is| however| also associated with environmental burdens and it is not known whether and to what extent the use of phospholipase is justified by overall environmental improvements. The aim of the present study is therefore to assess the environmental impacts that come with the use of industrial phospholipase in mozzarella production and compare with the savings that come with the avoided milk production. The study addresses mozzarella production in Denmark. LCA is used as analytical tool and environmental modelling is facilitated in SimaPro 7.1.8 LCA software. Yield improvements refer to full scale industrial application of phospholipase in cheese industry. The study is a comparative analysis and a marginal and market-oriented approach is taken. The study addresses contribution to global warming| acidification| nutrient enrichment| photochemical smog formation| energy consumption and use of agricultural land. Estimation of environmental impact potentials is based on Eco-indicator 95 v.2.1 equivalency factors. Toxicity is addressed by qualitative means. The environmental impacts induced by phospholipase production are small compared with the savings obtained by reduced milk consumption for mozzarella production when all impact indicators are considered. Sensitivity analyses and data quality assessments indicate that this general outcome of the study is robust| although results at the more detailed level are the subject of much variation and uncertainty. Transport of the enzyme from producer to mozzarella producer is insignificant and the general outcome of the study is considered applicable to other regions of the world where milk is produced in modern milk production systems. Use of phospholipase as a yield improvement factor is a means of reducing environmental impact of mozzarella production. The total annual global warming mitigation potential of phospholipase used in production of mozzarella and other pasta filata products is in the order of 7 x 10(8) kg CO(2) equivalents. The use of phospholipase is driven by overall cost savings and it is therefore recommended that the enzyme should be given attention as a cost-efficient means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 10046,2009,3,3,Environmental Decision-Making Using Life Cycle Impact Assessment and Stochastic Multiattribute Decision Analysis: A Case Study on Alternative Transportation Fuels,Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) involves weighing tradeoffs between multiple and incommensurate criteria. Current state-of-the-art LCIA tools typically compute an overall environmental score using a linear-weighted aggregation of characterized inventory data that has been normalized relative to total industry| regional| or national emissions. However| current normalization practices risk masking impacts that may be significant within the context of the decision| albeit small relative to the reference data (e.g.|total U.S. emissions). Additionally| uncertainty associated with quantification of weights is generally very high. Partly for these reasons| many LCA studies truncate impact assessment at the inventory characterization step| rather than completing normalization and weighting steps. This paper describes a novel approach called stochastic multiattribute life cycle impact assessment (SMA-LCIA) that combines an outranking approach to normalization with stochastic exploration of weight spaces-avoiding some of the drawbacks of current LCIA methods. To illustrate the new approach| SMA-LCIA is compared with a typical LCIA method for crop-based| fossil-based| and electric fuels using the Greenhouse gas Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for inventory data and the Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other Environmental Impacts (TRACI) model for data characterization. In contrast to the typical LCIA case| in which results are dominated by fossil fuel depletion and global warming considerations regardless of criteria weights| the SMA-LCIA approach results in a rank ordering that is more sensitive to decision-maker preferences. The principal advantage of the SMA-LCIA method is the ability to facilitate exploration and construction of context-specific criteria preferences by simultaneously representing multiple weights spaces and the sensitivity of the rank ordering to uncertain stakeholder values. 9595,2009,2,4,Environmental factors which affect growth of Japanese common squid| Todarodes pacificus| analyzed by a bioenergetics model coupled with a lower trophic ecosystem model,Bioenergetics model is applied to Japanese common squid| Todarodes pacificus. The temporal change of wet weight of common squid| which migrates in the Sea of Japan| is simulated. The time dependent horizontal distribution of prey is calculated a priori by 3-D coupled physical-biological model. The biological model NEMURO (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) is used to simulate the lower-trophic ecosystem including three kinds of zooplankton biomass two of which is used as prey of common squid. A bioenergetics model reproduced appropriate growth curve of common squid| migrating in the North Pacific and the Sea of Japan. The results show that the wet weight of common squid in the northern Sea of Japan is heavier than that migrating in the central Sea of Japan| because prey density of the northern Sea of Japan is higher than that of the central Sea of Japan. We also investigate the wet weight anomaly for a global warming scenario. In this case. wet weight of common squid decreases because water temperature exceeds the optimum temperature for common squid. This result indicates that migration route and spawning area of common squid might change with global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9613,2009,3,2,Environmental Harm of Hidden Subsidies: Global Warming and Acidification,We investigate environmental impacts of off-budget or indirect subsidies| which| unlike on-budget subsidies| are not visible in government budgets. Such subsidies have received little attention in economic and environmental research| even though they may be at least as important from an environmental perspective as on-budget subsidies. We offer a typology of indirect subsidies. Next| we estimate the magnitude of these subsidies and their impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) and acidifying emissions for the agriculture| energy| and transport sectors in The Netherlands. The calculations are based on a model approach that translates a particular subsidy into price and quantity changes using empirical elasticities| followed by environmental effect estimates using pollution-intensity parameters. The various environmental pollution effects are aggregated into environmental indicators. The results show| among others| that GHG emissions caused by off-budget subsidies contribute to more than 30% of the policy targets specified by the Kyoto Protocol for CO(2) emissions reduction by The Netherlands. Reforming or removing off-budget subsidies may thus be an important strategy of effective climate policy. 9721,2009,3,4,Environmental impact of agricultural buildings,Life-cycle assessments (LCAs) are based on numerous databases in the energy| transport| waste disposal| chemicals| agricultural processes and facilities spheres. Agroscope Reckenholz-Tanikon Research Station ART has expanded the data specifically pertaining to agriculture in the 'buildings' sphere. The comparison of four different dairy barns shows that by opting for a multi-building loose-housing system in a simple design| the environmental impacts in the 'buildings' input group can be reduced to a good quarter (energy demand| global warming potential) to a good half (terrestrial ecotoxicity according to the Centrum voor Milieukunde Leiden) of those of an isolated tied-housing system. From the results| it is evident that it is not just the quantity but the type of materials which exerts a major influence on the level of environmental impacts. In individual-farm LCAs| buildings for the three types of farms with animal husbandry investigated contribute 11 to 17 per cent of the 'environmental impact' energy requirement. Consequently| they represent one of the most important input groups in addition to the primary energy carriers and the purchase of feedstuffs and livestock by pigs/poultry farm types.
10307,2009,3,4,Environmental impact of the substitution of imported soybean meal with locally-produced rapeseed meal in dairy cow feed,Growing public concerns about the traceability| safety and environmental-friendliness of food products provide an incentive for shorter supply chains in agricultural production. Here| we assessed the environmental impacts of the substitution of imported soybean meal with locally-produced rapeseed meal in French dairy production systems| using a life-cycle approach. Two feeding rations based on either French-produced rapeseed meal or Brazilian-produced soy meal as concentrates| were compared for nine impact categories| including global warming| ecotoxicity and eutrophication. Crop production was the main contributor to most impacts. while overseas transport of soy meal only had a marginal effect. The "Soybean" ration appeared more environmentally-efficient than the "Rapeseed" ration because it involved less intensive management practices| in particular regarding synthetic fertilizers consumption. However| land use changes brought about by soybean cultivation should also be examined. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9955,2009,3,2,Environmental impact of thin-film GaInP/GaAs and multicrystalline silicon solar modules produced with solar electricity,The environmental burden of photovoltaic (PV) solar modules is currently largely determined by the cumulative input of fossil energy used for module production. However| with an increased focus on limiting the emission of CO(2) coming from fossil fuels| it is expected that renewable resources| including photovoltaics| may well become more important in producing electricity. A comparison of the environmental impacts of PV modules in case their life cycle is based on the use of PV electricity in contrast to conventional electricity can elucidate potential environmental drawbacks in an early stage of development of a solar-based economy. The goal of this paper is to show for ten impact categories the environmental consequences of replacing fossil electricity with solar electricity into the life cycle of two types of PV modules. Using life cycle assessment (LCA)| we evaluated the environmental impacts of two types of PV modules: a thin-film GaInP/GaAs tandem module and a multicrystalline silicon (multi-Si) module. For each of the modules| the total amount of fossil electricity required in the life cycle of the module was substituted with electricity that is generated by a corresponding PV module. The environmental impacts of the modules on the midpoint level were compared with those of the same modules in case their life cycle is based on the use of conventional electricity. The environmental impacts were assessed for Western European circumstances with an annual solar irradiation of 1000 kWh/m(2). For the GaInP/GaAs module| the environmental impacts of individual production steps were also analysed. Environmental burdens decreased when PV electricity was applied in the life cycle of the two PV modules. The impact score reductions of the GaInP/GaAs module were up to a factor of 4.9 (global warming). The impact score reductions found for the multi-Si module were up to a factor of 2.5 (abiotic depletion and global warming). Reductions of the toxicity scores of both module types were smaller or negligible. This is caused by a decreased use of fossil fuels| on the one hand| and an increased consumption of materials for the production of the additional solar modules used for generating the required PV electricity on the other. Overall| the impact scores of the GaInP/GaAs module were reduced more than the corresponding scores of the multi-Si module. The contribution analysis of the GaInP/GaAs module production steps indicated that for global warming| the cell growth process is dominant for supply with conventional electricity| while for the solar scenario| the frame becomes dominant. Regarding freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity scores associated with the life cycle of the GaInP/GaAs module| the cell growth process is dominant for supply with conventional electricity| while the reactor system for the cell growth with the associated gas scrubbing system is dominant for the solar scenario. There are uncertainties regarding the calculated environmental impact scores. This paper describes uncertainties associated with the used economic allocation method| and uncertainties because of missing life cycle inventory data. For the GaInP/GaAs module| it was found that the global warming impact scores range from -66% to +41%| and the freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity scores (for an infinite time horizon) range from -40% to +300% compared to the default estimates. For both impact categories| the choices associated with the allocation of gallium| with the electricity mix| with the conversion efficiency of the commercially produced GaInP/GaAs cells| and with the yield of the cell growth process are most influential. For freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity| the uncertainty concerning the lifetime of the reactor system for the GaInP/GaAs cell growth process and the gas scrubbing system is particularly relevant. Use of PV electricity instead of fossil electricity significantly reduces the environmental burdens of the GaInP/GaAs and the multi-Si module. The reductions of the toxicity scores| however| are smaller or negligible. Toxicity impacts of the GaInP/GaAs cells can be reduced by improvement of the yield of the cell growth process| a reduced energy demand in the cell growth process| reduction of the amount of stainless steel in the cell growth reactor system and the gas scrubbing system| and a longer lifetime of these systems. Because the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production of fossil-fuel-based electricity have an important share in global warming on a world-wide scale| switching to a more extensive use of solar power is helpful to comply with the present international legislation on the area of global warming reduction. As reductions in toxicity impact scores are smaller or negligible when fossil electricity is replaced by PV electricity| it is desirable to give specific attention to the processes which dominantly contribute to these impact categories. Furthermore| in this study| a shift in ranking of several environmental impacts of the modules has been found when PV electricity is used instead of fossil electricity. The results of a comparative LCA can thus be dependent of the electricity mix used in the life cycles of the assessed products. 9778,2009,3,3,Environmental impact of two aerobic composting technologies using life cycle assessment,Background| aim| and scope Composting is a viable technology to treat the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) because it stabilizes biodegradable organic matter and contributes to reduce the quantity of municipal solid waste to be incinerated or land-filled. However| the composting process generates environmental impacts such as atmospheric emissions and resources consumption that should be studied. This work presents the inventory data and the study of the environmental impact of two real composting plants using different technologies| tunnels (CT) and confined windrows (CCW). Materials and methods Inventory data of the two composting facilities studied were obtained from field measurements and from plant managers. Next| life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was used to calculate the environmental impacts. Composting facilities were located in Catalonia (Spain) and were evaluated during 2007. Both studied plants treat source separated organic fraction of municipal solid waste. In both installations the analysis includes environmental impact from fuel| water| and electricity consumption and the main gaseous emissions from the composting process itself (ammonia and volatile organic compounds). Results and discussion Inventory analysis permitted the calculation of different ratios corresponding to resources consumption or plant performance and process yield with respect to 1 t of OFMSW. Among them| it can be highlighted that in both studied plants total energy consumption necessary to treat the OFMSW and transform it into compost was between 130 and 160 kWh/t OFMSW. Environmental impact was evaluated in terms of global warming potential (around 60 kg CO(2)/t OFMSW for both plants)| acidification potential (7.13 and 3.69 kg SO(2) eq/t OFMSW for CT and CCW plant respectively)| photochemical oxidation potential (0.1 and 3.11 kg C(2)H(4) eq/t OFMSW for CT and CCW plant| respectively)| eutrophication (1.51 and 0.77 kg PO(4)(3-)/t OFMSW for CT and CCW plant| respectively)| human toxicity (around 15 kg 1|4-DB eq/t OFMSW for both plants) and ozone layer depletion (1.66 x 10(-5) and 2.77 x 10(-5) kg CFC(-11) eq/t OFMSW for CT and CCW plant| respectively). Conclusions This work reflects that the life cycle perspective is a useful tool to analyze a composting process since it permits the comparison among different technologies. According to our results total energy consumption required for composting OFMSW is dependent on the technology used (ranging from 130 to 160 kWh/t OFMSW) as water consumption is (from 0.02 to 0.33 m(3) of water/t OFMSW). Gaseous emissions from the composting process represent the main contribution to eutrophication| acidification and photochemical oxidation potentials| while those contributions related to energy consumption are the principal responsible for global warming. Recommendations and perspectives This work provides the evaluation of environmental impacts of two composting technologies that can be useful for its application to composting plants with similar characteristics. In addition| this study can also be part of future works to compare composting with other OFMSW treatments from a LCA perspective. Likewise| the results can be used for the elaboration of a greenhouse gasses emissions inventory in Catalonia and Spain. 9863,2009,3,4,Environmental impacts of forest production and supply of pulpwood: Spanish and Swedish case studies,Forest operations use large amounts of energy| which must be considered when life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology is applied to forest products. Forest management practices differ considerably between countries and may also differ within a country. This paper aims to identify and compare the environmental burdens from forest operations in Sweden and Spain focused on pulpwood production and supply to pulp mills. To perform the analysis| the main forest plantations were investigated as well as the most important tree species used in pulp mills in both countries: eucalyptus and| Norway spruce and Scots pine| were taken into account for the Spanish and Swedish case studies| respectively. Energy requirements for pulpwood production and supply to Spanish and Swedish pulp mills are evaluated in this paper. All forest operations from site preparation to extraction of felled wood to the delivery point at the roadside are included within the system boundaries as well as wood transport from forest landing to the pulp mill gate. Seedling and machinery production are excluded from the system boundaries due to lack of field data. The impact assessment phase was carried out according to the Swedish Environmental Management Council and| in particular| the impact categories assessed in forest and agricultural LCAs (global warming| acidification| eutrophication and photochemical oxidant formation) were analysed. SimaPro 7.10 software was used to perform the impact assessment stage. Different types of wood are produced in both case studies: softwood in Sweden and hardwood in Spain| with higher production of round wood and biomass per hectare in Sweden. Total energy use for pulpwood production and supply are in a similar order of magnitude| up to 395 MJ and 370 MJ/m(3) solid under bark in Spain and Sweden| respectively. Field operations| such as silviculture and logging| are more energy-intensive in the Spanish case study. However| secondary hauling of pulpwood to pulp mill requires more energy in the Swedish case study. These important differences are related to different forest management practices as well as to pulpwood supply to the pulp mill. The eventual imports of pulpwood| application of pesticides| thinning step or final felling considerably affects energy requirements| which are reflected on the environmental results. Although differences between both case studies were observed| several stages were investigated: wood delivery to the pulp mill by road| harvesting and forwarding| contribute considerably to acidification| eutrophication and global warming potential in both cases. The type of wood| the machines used in forest operations (mechanised or motor-manual)| the use of fossil fuels and the amount of wood produced influence the results. These differences must be kept in mind in comparative studies between such different countries. The results obtained in this work allow one to forecast the importance of forest operations in LCA of forest products (in this case| wood pulp) and the influence of energy use in the results. Special attention has been paid in the inventory analysis stage for both case studies. It is possible to gain a better environmental performance in both case studies if alternative practices are considered| mainly focused on site preparation and stand tending in the Spanish system and on pulpwood supply in the Swedish one. This study provides useful information that can assist forest-based industries in the aim of increasing their sustainability. Future work will focus on the study of several transport alternatives of pulpwood supply including railway| road and ship. In addition| pulpwood processing in Spanish and Swedish paper pulp mills considered to be representative of the "state of art" will be carried out in order to get a complete picture of this kind of forest-based industry. In addition| the use of biofuels (such as forest biomass) instead of fossil fuels and CO(2) uptake of wood via photosynthesis will be carried out in order to have a complete perspective of forest ecosystems. 9633,2009,3,4,Environmental Impacts over the Life Cycle of Residential Buildings Using Different Exterior Wall Systems,This study analyzed the environmental impacts of a single-story residential building using different exterior wall systems. The environmental impacts over the complete life cycle of the residential buildings were determined and compared using the following indicators: air pollution index| energy consumption (embodied and operational)| global warming potential| resource use| solid waste emissions| and water pollution index. The exterior wall systems analyzed were concrete block| poured in-place concrete| insulated concrete| traditional 0.05 mx0.1 m by 0.4 m (2 in.x4 in. by 16 in.) on center wood frame| traditional 0.05 mx0.15 m by 0.6 m (2 in.x6 in. by 24 in.) on center wood frame| and steel stud framing. Additionally| structural insulated panels were modeled for the operational energy of the building. For each scenario| the designs were based on the minimum R value required by the International Building Code. ATHENA| a life-cycle assessment software tool| and eQuest| an energy usage modeling software tool that calculated the operational energy of the building| were used to evaluate the environmental impacts of the building| during the construction| use| and end of life phases| for each scenario. The results show that in the preuse phase| the insulated concrete buildings produce the greatest impact on the environment followed by the concrete block| poured in-place concrete| and steel stud buildings. Traditional wood frames had the fewest environmental impacts when considering only the preuse phase. In the use phase| the insulated concrete buildings had the lowest impacts to the environment because they required less operational energy| whereas concrete block| poured in-place concrete| traditional 0.05 mx0.15 m by 0.6 m (2 in.x6 in. by 24 in.) on center wood frame| traditional 0.05 mx0.1 m by 0.4 m (2 in.x4 in. by 16 in.) on center wood frame| and steel stud framing had progressively larger environmental impacts. The end of life phase was negligible with respect to the other phases. In the complete life-cycle assessment (LCA)| 50-year life span| insulated concrete exterior walls used around 700 GJ (5%) less energy than traditional wood 0.05 mx0.15 m by 0.6 m (2 in.x6 in. by 24 in.) on center wall systems. The results also indicate the importance of exterior wall's thermal mass for the energy performance of a building| especially for a city located in a hot climate zone such as Phoenix| Arizona| and the importance of a holistic approach| such as LCA| to properly assess the negative environmental impact of different technologies. 10080,2009,2,4,Environmental microarray analyses of Antarctic soil microbial communities,Antarctic ecosystems are fascinating in their limited trophic complexity| with decomposition and nutrient cycling functions being dominated by microbial activities. Not only are Antarctic habitats exposed to extreme environmental conditions| the Antarctic Peninsula is also experiencing unequalled effects of global warming. Owing to their uniqueness and the potential impact of global warming on these pristine systems| there is considerable interest in determining the structure and function of microbial communities in the Antarctic. We therefore utilized a recently designed 16S rRNA gene microarray| the PhyloChip| which targets 8741 bacterial and archaeal taxa| to interrogate microbial communities inhabiting densely vegetated and bare fell-field soils along a latitudinal gradient ranging from 51 degrees S (Falkland Islands) to 72 degrees S (Coal Nunatak). Results indicated a clear decrease in diversity with increasing latitude| with the two southernmost sites harboring the most distinct Bacterial and Archaeal communities. The microarray approach proved more sensitive in detecting the breadth of microbial diversity than polymerase chain reaction-based bacterial 16S rRNA gene libraries of modest size (similar to 190 clones per library). Furthermore| the relative signal intensities summed for phyla and families on the PhyloChip were significantly correlated with the relative occurrence of these taxa in clone libraries. PhyloChip data were also compared with functional gene microarray data obtained earlier| highlighting numerous significant relationships and providing evidence for a strong link between community composition and functional gene distribution in Antarctic soils. Integration of these PhyloChip data with other complementary methods provides an unprecedented understanding of the microbial diversity and community structure of terrestrial Antarctic habitats. 9781,2009,3,4,Environmental performance assessment of hardboard manufacture,The forest-based and related industries comprise one of the most important industry sectors in the European Union| representing some 10% of the EU's manufacturing industries. Their activities are based on renewable raw material resources and efficient recycling. The forest-based industries can be broken down into the following sectors: forestry| woodworking| pulp and paper manufacturing| paper and board converting and printing and furniture. The woodworking sector includes many sub-sectors; one of the most important is that of wood panels accounting for 9% of total industry production. Wood panels are used as intermediate products in a wide variety of applications in the furniture and building industries. There are different kinds of panels: particleboard| fibreboard| veneer| plywood and blockboard. The main goal of this study was to assess the environmental impacts during the life cycle of wet-process fibreboard (hardboard) manufacturing to identify the processes with the largest environmental impacts. The study covers the life cycle of hardboard production from a cradle-to-gate perspective. A hardboard plant was analysed in detail| dividing the process chain into three subsystems: wood preparation| board forming and board finishing. Ancillary activities such as chemicals| wood chips| thermal energy and electricity production and transport were included within the system boundaries. Inventory data came from interviews and surveys (on-site measurements). When necessary| the data were complemented with bibliographic resources. The life cycle assessment procedure followed the ISO14040 series. The life cycle inventory (LCI) and impact assessment database for this study were constructed using SimaPro Version 7.0 software. Abiotic depletion (AD)| global warming (GW)| ozone layer depletion (OLD)| human toxicity (HT)| ecotoxicity| photochemical oxidant formation (PO)| acidification (AC) and eutrophication (EP) were the impact categories analysed in this study. The wood preparation subsystem contributed more than 50% to all impact categories| followed by board forming and board finishing| which is mainly due to chemicals consumption in the wood preparation subsystem. In addition| thermal energy requirements (for all subsystems) were fulfilled by on-site wood waste burning and| accordingly| biomass energy converters were considered. Several processes were identified as hot spots in this study: phenol-formaldehyde resin production (with large contribution to HT| fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity and PO)| electricity production (main contributor to marine aquatic ecotoxicity)| wood chips production (AD and OLD) and finally| biomass burning for heat production (identified as the largest contributor to AC and EP due to NO (X) emissions). In addition| uncontrolled formaldehyde emissions from manufacturing processes at the plant such as fibre drying should be controlled due to relevant contributions to terrestrial ecotoxicity and PO. A sensitivity analysis of electricity profile generation (strong geographic dependence) was carried out and several European profiles were analysed. Novel binding agents for the wood panel industry as a substitute for the currently used formaldehyde-based binders have been extensively investigated. Reductions of toxic emissions during drying| mat forming and binder production are desirable. The improved method would considerably reduce the contributions to all impact categories. The results obtained in this work allow forecasting the importance of the wood preparation subsystem for the environmental burdens associated with hardboard manufacture. Special attention was paid to the inventory analysis stage for each subsystem. It is possible to improve the environmental performance of the hardboard manufacturing process if some alternatives are implemented regarding the use of chemicals| electricity profile and emission sources in the production processes located inside the plant. This study provides useful information for forest-based industries related to panel manufacture with the aim of increasing their sustainability. Our research continues to assess the use phase and final disposal of panels to complete the life cycle assessment. Future work will focus on analysing the environmental aspects associated with plywood| another type of commonly used wood panel. 10106,2009,4,3,Environmental performance of industrial companies| sites| installations and production processes,A set of 10 environmental impact indicators is proposed for the evaluation the environmental impact of industrial installations and processes or industrial companies and sites: global warming| destruction of the ozone layer (ozone depletion)| acidification| photochemical ozone creation| human toxicity| ecotoxicity| eutrophication| resource consumption (abiotic depletion)| water consumption and waste production. These are "weighed" indicators: the individual emissions or discharges of components contributing to a certain theme are multiplied with a weighing factor and aggregated. Eco-efficiency indicators are calculated by dividing the "weighed"| indicators by a value related to production. These relative indicators make it possible to quantify the evolution of the environmental performance for a process| company or industrial site and to evaluate which component(s) contribute(s) most to a given theme| thus allowing to set priorities for lowering the environmental impact. Examples illustrate the proposed method. Attention is also given to the emission of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) during the incineration of waste| trying to answer the question: are waste incinerators sinks or sources of POPs? It is shown that for non-carcongenic effects according to the incineration scenario| the weighed input/output ranges from 0.3 to 20|500 when considering the POPs in flue gases and solid residues. 1035,2009,2,3,ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE THE IMPACT OF INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY ON THE ENVIRONMENT,Pollution imply the contamination of air| water and soil will: various chemicals| dust and smoke and is the result of any change of environment| which determines a natural ecological imbalance. Pollutants formed after industrial activities. Industry burning fossil fuels releasing into the atmosphere the greenhouse gases that warm the Earth| carbon dioxide in excess favors retaining heat from the earth surface| thereby preventing its reflection in the atmospheric layers. Is thus the greenhouse effect which leads to raising the average temperature of earth atmosphere| melting polar glaciers| floods| etc. Because the chemicals disposed in the atmosphere| especially Freon in certain places on earth| the ozone layer decreased or even disappeared. This in turn leads to climate change| the increase the weather extremes| more droughts| heat| catastrophic fires and floods. Another serious consequence of pollution is acid rain generated by the transformation of sulfur oxides and nitrogen in the atmosphere| in sulfuric acid and nitric respectively. Acid rain burns the plants tissues which become yellow and die. Whole forests have disappeared in this case. If the air pollution-symbol image is provided by trees "perforated" by acid rain| water pollution expression feature could be considered "black tide" that is virtually pollution continue| the big oil and the world oceans| with disastrous effects on flora and marine fauna. Lack of strong and urgent measures to reduce and even eliminate pollution can result in a time not too remote| the catastrophic and irreparable mutations on the ecosystem. Environmental protection is not just an individual problem| but requires a collective and mutual help! 802,2009,3,2,ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGIES; CASE STUDIES,Nowadays the global climate change is one of the most significant questions from environmental| social| political and economic point of views. Global warming caused by green house gases emitted into the air is a result of the human activities (Energy Revolution| 2005-2007). The majority of the industrial processes has significant impact to human life and deteriorates the natural environment. In this paper different technologies (three industrial technologies) will be dealt with special focus on energy generation and reduction of CO(2) and NO/NO(x) emission levels. A case study to be described contributes to the increased energy security and the fulfillment of the electric energy production targets in Hungary provided on renewable basis. These plants are located in Transdanubia| Hungary. 9687,2009,3,3,Environmentally sustainable production of food| feed and fuel from natural resources in the tropics,Responding to the challenges posed by global warming| peak oil and biofuels will require a paradigm shift in the practice of agriculture and in the role of live stock within the farming system. Farming systems should aim at maximizing plant biomass production from locally available diversified resources| processing of the biomass on farm to provide food| feed and energy and recycling of all waste materials. The approach that is the subject of this paper is that the generation of electricity can be a by-product of food/feed production. The concept is the fractionation of biomass into inedible cell wall material that can be converted to an inflammable gas by gasification| the gas in turn being the source of fuel for internal combustion engines driving electrical generators. The cell contents and related structures such as tree leaves are used as human food or animal feed. As well as providing food and feed the model is highly appropriate for decentralized small scale production of electricity in rural areas. It also offers opportunities for sequestration of carbon in the form of biochar the solid residue remaining after gasification of the biomass. 9777,2009,3,4,Enzymes for pharmaceutical applications-a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment,During the last decade| the interest in estimating environmental life cycle impacts of bioprocesses has markedly risen. To adequately quantify these impacts| accurate life cycle inventories of materials| such as agricultural substrates and enzymes| are required. The goals of this life cycle assessment were (1) to estimate the life cycle inventories (LCIs) and impacts of three supported enzymes produced in-house for pharmaceutical applications (A| B| and C) and (2) to determine the suitability of applying modular life cycle inventory estimation techniques to enzymes when individual enzyme LCIs are not readily available. The scope of this LCA was cradle to gate| covering the production and purification of the enzymes| energy generation| raw material production| waste treatment| and transportation of the raw materials. Three immobilized enzymes (A| B| and C) produced industrially for application in pharmaceutical products were studied. Enzyme production information was obtained from internal process descriptions. LCI information was obtained from GlaxoSmithKline's in-house LCA database FLASC (TM)| from LCA commercial databases| and literature. The LCI for the enzyme support was estimated using its material flows. Mass allocations were applied to multi-output processes in the upstream processes. The life cycle impacts considered were nonrenewable energy consumption| global warming| acidification| eutrophication| and photochemical smog formation. Life cycle impacts of the immobilized enzymes A| B| and C were estimated. For instance| nonrenewable energy use is between 117 to 207 MJ/kg of immobilized enzyme and the global warming potential ranges from 16 to 25 kg CO(2) eq/kg immobilized enzyme. Contributions of different subprocesses were also estimated. For example| support production accounts for about 31% to 67% of the energy consumption and soybean protein and yeast extract account for about 64% to 72% of the total photochemical smog formation. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed using Monte Carlo simulation and showed that a standard deviation of the environmental impact is less than 7% of the mean in all the environmental impacts considered. "What if" analysis shows that using biobased glycerin instead of petroleum-based glycerin could reduce global warming impacts between 11% and 44%. The production of immobilized enzyme is| in general| energy intensive. Enzyme A has larger environmental impacts than the other enzymes evaluated because of larger energy intensity and lower enzyme production yield. The media preparation inputs (soybean protein| yeast extract) and immobilization subprocesses are the two major contributors to acidification| eutrophication| and photochemical smog formation. Immobilization is the major contributor for global warming potential. "What if" analysis estimated changes on life cycle impacts for biobased vs. synthetic substrates. The results of this LCA are| in general| comparable with results previously reported in the literature (Nielsen et al.| Int J Life Cycle Assess 12(6):432-438| 2007). Therefore| using this technique to estimate LCI of enzymes appears to be suitable for future life cycle assessments of biocatalyzed processes. The results of this study will be integrated into GlaxoSmithKline's FLASC (TM) to improve the accuracy of life cycle assessment for biocatalyzed processes and enzymes produced in-house. 10152,2009,5,4,Episodes of relative global warming,Solar activity is regulated by the solar dynamo. The dynamo is a non-linear interplay between the equatorial and polar magnetic field components. So far| in Sun-climate studies| only the equatorial component has been considered as a possible driver of tropospheric temperature variations. We show that| next to this| there is a significant contribution of the polar component. Based on direct observations of proxy data for the two main solar magnetic fields components since 1844| we derive an empirical relation between tropospheric temperature variation and those of the solar equatorial and polar activities. When applying that relation to the period 1610-1995| we find some quasi-regular episodes of residual temperature increases and decreases| with semi-amplitudes up to similar to 0.3 degrees C. The present period of global warming is one of them. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
10331,2009,2,2,Estimates of Carbon Reservoirs in High-Altitude Wetlands in the Colombian Andes,The observed increase in emission of greenhouse gases| with attendant effects on global warming| have raised interests in identifying sources and sinks of carbon in the environment. Terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration involves capture of atmospheric C through photosynthesis and storage in biota| soil and wetlands. Particularly| wetland systems function primarily as long-term reservoirs for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and as sources of atmospheric methane (CH(4)). The objective of this study was to evaluate the patterns of carbon reservoirs in two high-altitude wetlands in the central Andean mountain of Colombia. Carbon cycle in both systems is related mainly with the plant biomass dynamics from the littoral zone. Thus| total organic carbon concentrate an average up to 329 kg of N ha(-1) and 125 kg of P ha(-1) every year vs only 17 kg N ha(-1) and 6 kg P ha(-1) in the water column of the limnetic zone in the wetland| evidencing spatial differences in carbon concentrations for these types of ecosystems. Results revealed that these systems participate in the balance and sequestration of carbon in the Colombian Andes. 1034,2009,2,4,Estimates of Geostrophic Surface Currents in the South Atlantic Bight,The determination of long-term trends in the behavior of the Gulf Stream is critical to understanding the meridional heat transfer cycle and associated global climate change. In this study| in situ current measurements from cross-stream transects of an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) were used in conjunction with satellite altimetry data to obtain accurate estimates of Gulf Stream surface geostrophic current within the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) between 1992 and 2004. Analysis of time series data reveals that the magnitude of the geostrophic flow varies seasonally and that the seasonally averaged velocity was greatest following the intense 1997-1998 El Nino. Because of the relatively small fluctuations in the Gulf Stream's path| our analysis provides a method for accurate| long-term measurements of Gulf Stream currents for this region of the SAB. 9347,2009,4,3,Estimates of the Water Vapor Climate Feedback during El Nino-Southern Oscillation,The strength of the water vapor feedback has been estimated by analyzing the changes in tropospheric specific humidity during El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles. This analysis is done in climate models driven by observed sea surface temperatures [Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs]| preindustrial runs of fully coupled climate models| and in two reanalysis products| the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The water vapor feedback during ENSO-driven climate variations in the AMIP models ranges from 1.9 to 3.7 W m(-2) K(-1)| in the control runs it ranges from 1.4 to 3.9 W m(-2) K(-1)| and in the ERA-40 and MERRA it is 3.7 and 4.7 W m(-2) K(-1)| respectively. Taken as a group| these values are higher than previous estimates of the water vapor feedback in response to century-long global warming. Also examined is the reason for the large spread in the ENSO-driven water vapor feedback among the models and between the models and the reanalyses. The models and the reanalyses show a consistent relationship between the variations in the tropical surface temperature over an ENSO cycle and the radiative response to the associated changes in specific humidity. However| the feedback is defined as the ratio of the radiative response to the change in the global average temperature. Differences in extratropical temperatures will| therefore| lead to different inferred feedbacks| and this is the root cause of spread in feedbacks observed here. This is also the likely reason that the feedback inferred from ENSO is larger than for long-term global warming. 9658,2009,3,3,Estimating a region's soil organic carbon baseline: The undervalued role of land-management,In light of recent concern over the extent of global warming and the role of soil carbon as a potential store of atmospheric carbon| there is increasing pressure and demand for regions to estimate their current soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks with the greatest possible accuracy. This study began by approaching the task in a similar way to previous studies where attempts at calculating SOC baselines at global| national or regional scale have used mean values for soil orders and multiplied these values by the mapped areas of the soils they represent. It also followed other methods that have approached the task from a land-cover point of view| making estimates using only land-use| or soil order/land-use combinations and others that have included variables such as altitude| climate and soil texture. The research assessed forms of stratification which could improve these baseline estimates by determining the major controls on SOC concentrations (%SOC) at the National Trust Wallington estate in Northumberland| NE England (area = 55 km(2)) where an extensive soil sampling campaign was used to test what level of accuracy could be achieved in modelling the %SOC values on the Estate using a range of existing national and local data. Mapped %SCC values were compared to the values predicted from The National Soils Resources Institute (NSRI) representative soil profile data for major soil group| soil series and land-use corrected soil series values| as well as land-use/major soil group combinations from the Countryside Survey database. The results of this study show that: When only soil series or land-use was used as a predictor only 48% and 44% of the variation in the dataset was explained. When soil series/land-use combinations were used explanatory power increased to 57%. Both altitude and soil pH proved to be significant controls on %SOC and including these variables gave an improvement to 59%. A further improvement from 59% to 66% in the ability to predict %SOC levels at point locations when farm tenancy was included suggests that differences in land-management practices between farm tenancies could be responsible for more of the variation in %SOC than either soil series or land-use. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9487,2009,2,4,Estimating climate change impact on runoff across southeast Australia: Method| results| and implications of the modeling method,This paper describes the modeling of climate change impact on runoff across southeast Australia using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model SIMHYD and presents the results and assesses the robustness of the modeling approach. The future climate series is obtained by scaling the historical series| informed by 15 global climate models (GCMs)| to reflect a 0.9 degrees C increase in global average surface air temperature| using a daily scaling method that considers changes in the future mean seasonal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration as well as in the daily rainfall distribution. The majority of the modeling results indicate that there will be less runoff in southeast Australia in the future. However| there is considerable uncertainty| with the results ranging from a 17% decrease to a 7% increase in the mean annual runoff averaged across the study area for the 0.9 degrees C global warming. The model assessments indicate that the modeling approach is generally robust and can be used to estimate the climate impact on runoff. The modeled mean annual runoff is generally within 10-20% of the observed runoff. The modeling results for an independent test period are only slightly poorer than the calibration period| indicating that a satisfactorily calibrated rainfall-runoff model can be used to estimate runoff for another climate period. The modeled impact on various runoff characteristics as estimated by two rainfall-runoff models investigated here differ by less than 10%| which is relatively small compared to the range of modeled runoff results using rainfall projections from different GCMs. 10077,2009,4,4,ESTIMATING LAND COVER-INDUCED INCREASES IN DAYTIME SUMMER TEMPERATURES NEAR MT. ADAMS| WASHINGTON,A wealth of 20(th)-century instrumental data indicates that daytime near-surface temperatures differ greatly between clear-cut and mature forest stands| decreasing approximately linearly with stand height and density. Although these temperatures are easily observed in individual stands| extrapolating the net temperature effect to an actively logged terrain is difficult due to the heterogeneous mixture of different forest stand heights and densities. Previous work has related the percentage of tree shade observed in remotely sensed imagery to forest stand structure; we further developed this proxy to derive an estimate of the near-surface daytime air temperature during the summer months. This temperature proxy can be integrated across a region using both actual shade from the modern landscape and an idealized data set representing old-growth forest. In our 10 x 20 km study area on Mt. Adams| Washington| the temperature difference between these two data sets implies that as much as 0.6 degrees C of recent near-surface air temperature rise may be attributed to land cover change. Our results demonstrate that differences in regional temperatures caused by industrial-scale logging are large enough to play a significant role in other physical system responses| such as the retreat of alpine glaciers near logged forests. Because industrial-scale logging is globally pervasive and operates in the same timescale and direction as global warming trends| forcings due to land cover change may have been heretofore overlooked as a cause of the retreat of some glacier systems. 1005,2009,4,4,Estimating leaf area index by inversion of reflectance model for semiarid natural grasslands,The study developed an integrated reflectance model combining radiative transfer and geometric optical properties in order to inverse leaf area index (LAI) of semiarid natural grasslands. In order to better link remote sensing information with land plants| and facilitate regional and global climate change studies| the model introduced a simple but important geometrical similarity parameter related to plant crown shapes. The model revealed the influences of different plant crown shapes (such as spherical| cylindrical/cuboidal and conic crowns) on leaf/branch angle distribution frequencies| shadow ground coverage| shadowed or sunlit background fractions| canopy reflectance| and scene reflectance. The modeled reflectance data agreed with the measured ones in the three Leymus chinensis steppes with different degradation degrees| which validated the reflectance model. The lower the degradation degree was| the better the modeled data agreed with the measured data. After this reflectance model was coupled with the optimization inversion method| LAI over the entire study region was estimated once every eight days using the eight-day products of surface reflectance obtained by multi-spectral Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) during the growing seasons in 2002. The temporal and spatial patterns of inversed LAI for the steppes with different cover degrees| swamps| flood plains| and croplands agreed with the general laws and measurements very well. But for unused land cover types (sands| saline| and barren lands) and forestlands| totally accounting for about 10% of the study region| the reasonable LAI values were not derived by inversing| requiring further revising of the model or the development of a new model for them. 9998,2009,3,3,Estimating the efficiency of mitigating and preventing global warming with scenarios of controlled aerosol emissions into the stratosphere,Ensemble numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) are conducted to estimate the efficiency of controlled climate forcing (geoengineering) due to stratospheric sulfate aerosol (SSA) emissions in order to compensate for global warming under the SRES A1B anthropogenic emission scenario. Full (or even excessive) compensation for the expected anthropogenic warming in the model is possible with sufficiently intense geoengineering. For ensemble members with values of the governing parameters corresponding to those obtained for the Mt. Pinatubo eruption| global warming is reduced by no more than 0.46 K in the second half of the 21st century| with a residual rise in the global surface temperature T (g) comparative to 1961-1990 of 1.0-1.2 K by 2050 and 1.9-2.2 K by 2100. The largest reduction in global warming (with the other parameters of the numerical experiment being equal) is found not for a meridional distribution of SSA concentration peaked at low latitudes (despite the largest (in magnitude) global compensation instantaneous radiative forcing)| but for a uniform horizontal aerosol distribution and for a distribution with the SSA concentration maximum in the middle and subpolar latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The efficiency of geoengineering in terms of T (g) in the second half of the 21st century between the most efficient and the least efficient meridional distributions of stratospheric aerosols differs by as much as one-third| depending on the values of other governing parameters. For meridional distributions of SSA concentration| which produce the largest deceleration of global warming| such a deceleration is regionally most pronounced over high- and subpolarlatitude land areas and in the Arctic. In particular| this is expressed in the smallest reduction in the sea-ice extent and permafrost area under climate warming in the model. The compensation forcing also decelerates a general increase in global annual precipitation P (g) during warming. The relative deceleration in precipitation increase is most pronounced in land regions outside the tropics| where a significant deficit in precipitation is currently observed. After the theoretical completion of geoengineering in the first or second decade| its temperature effect vanishes with an abrupt acceleration of global and regional surface warming. For individual members of the ensemble experiment| the global temperature change in this period is five times as large as that in the experiment without geoengineering and ten times as large regionally (in northeastern Siberia). 10269,2009,3,4,Estimation of GHG Emissions in Turkey Using Energy and Economic Indicators,The greenhouse gas emissions (total greenhouse gas| CO2| CO| SO2| NO2| E (emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds)) covered by the Kyoto Protocol are weighted by their global warming potentials and aggregated to give total emissions in CO2 equivalents. The subject in this study is to obtain equations to predict the greenhouse gas emissions of Turkey using energy and economic indicators by the artificial neural network approach. In this study| three different models were used in order to train the artificial neural network. In the first of them sectoral energy consumption (Model 1)| in the second of them gross domestic product (Model 2)| and in the third of them gross national product (Model 3) are used input layer of the network. The greenhouse gas emissions are in the output layer for all models. The aim of using different models is to estimate the greenhouse gas emissions with high confidence to make correct investments in Turkey. The obtained equations are used to determine the future level of the greenhouse gas emissions and take measures to control the share of sectors in total emission. According to artificial neural network results| the maximum mean absolute percentage errors for Model 1 were found to be 0.147151| 0.066716| 0.181901| 0.105146| 0.124684| and 0.158157 for greenhouse gas| SO2| NO2| CO| E| and CO2| about training data with Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm by eight neurons| respectively. Similarly| for Model 2 these values were found to be 0.487212| 0.701938| 0.718754| 0.232667| 0.272346| and 0.575421| respectively. And finally| for Model 3| these values were found to be 0.126728| 0.115135| 0.069296| 0.214888| 0.080358| and 0.179481| respectively. R2 values are obtained very close to 1 for all models. The artificial neural network approach shows greater accuracy for estimating the greenhouse gas emissions. 10172,2009,3,3,Estimation of mass transport parameters of gases for quantifying CH(4) oxidation in landfill soil covers,Methane (CH(4))| which is one of the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gases| is produced from landfills. CH(4) is biologically oxidized to carbon dioxide| which has a lower global warming potential than methane| when it passes through a cover soil. In order to quantify the amount of CH(4) oxidized in a landfill cover soil| a soil column test| a diffusion cell test| and a mathematical model analysis were carried out. In the column test| maximum oxidation rates of CH(4) (V(max)) showed higher values in the upper part of the column than those in the lower part caused by the penetration of O(2) from the top. The organic matter content in the upper area was also higher due to the active microbial growth. The dispersion analysis results for O(2) and CH(4) in the column are counter-intuitive. As the upward flow rate of the landfill gas increased| the dispersion coefficient of CH(4) Slightly increased| possibly due to the effect of mechanical dispersion. On the other hand| as the upward flow rate of the landfill gas increased| the dispersion coefficient of O(2) decreased. It is possible that the diffusion of gases in porous media is influenced by the counter-directional flow rate. Further analysis of other gases in the column| N(2) and CO(2)| may be required to support this hypothesis| but in this paper we propose the possibility that the simulations using the diffusion coefficient of O(2) under the natural condition may overestimate the penetration of O(2) into the soil cover layer and consequently overestimate the oxidation of CH(4). (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9414,2009,4,4,Estimation of road traffic emission factors from a long term tracer study,Road traffic emissions| one of the largest source categories in megacity inventories| are highly uncertain. It is essential to develop methodologies to reduce these uncertainties to manage air quality more effectively. In this paper| we propose a methodology to estimate road traffic emission factors (EFs) from a tracer experiment and from roadside pollutants measurements. We emitted continuously during about 300 non-consecutive hours a passive tracer from a finite line source placed on one site of an urban street. At the same time| we measured continuously the resulting tracer concentrations at the other side of the street with a portable on-line gas chromatograph. We used n-propane contained in commercial liquid petroleum gas (LPG) as a passive tracer. Propane offers several advantages to traditional tracers (SF6| N2O CFCs): low price| easily available| non-reactive| negligible global warming potential| and easy to detect with commercial on-line gas chromatographs. The tracer experiment was carried out from January to March 2007 in a busy street of Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam). Traffic volume| weather information and pollutant concentrations were also measured at the measurement site. We used the results of the tracer experiment to calculate the dilution factors and afterwards we used these dilution factors| the traffic counts and the pollutant concentrations to estimate the EFs. The proposed method assumes that the finite emission line represents the emission produced by traffic in the full area of the street and therefore there is an error associated to this assumption. We use the Computational Fluids Dynamics (CFD) model MISKAM to calculate this error and to correct the HCMC EFs. EFs for 15 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NO are reported here. A comparison with available studies reveals that most of the EFs estimated here are within the range of EFs reported in other studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9871,2009,3,4,EUROCROP: Research strategy for European arable farming,EUROCROP was a concerted action to develop a research strategy for European arable farming. Research institutes and various stake-holders drew Lip the main research priorities for individual arable crops and for six transversal elements: "farming systems"| "farm economics"| "outlets and markets"| "quality of agricultural products"| "environmental impacts" and "socio-economic issues". The social relevance and priority of research goals were assessed on the basis of four future scenarios: "trade liberalisation"| "Europe of regions"| "green Europe" and "global warming". Agroscope Reckenholz-Tanikon ART Research Station chaired the work group on environmental impacts. It was shown that the importance of conservation and the efficient use of the production resources energy| water| nutrients and soil will increase in future| with optimisation of the sustainability of cultivation systems and the nitrogen cycle being particularly important. Other issues relevant to the competitiveness of arable crops were prices| production costs as well as yield increase and stability. Adaptability to changing production conditions was deemed essential for the future| particularly in the case of plant protection. From the environmental point of view mention should also be made of issues like biodiversity| landscape ecology and protection of the aquatic environment| which have no direct relationship to productivity. Research priorities can turn out to be very different in different regions. 9921,2009,2,4,European rain rate modulation enhanced by changes in the NAO and atmospheric circulation regimes,The aim of this study is to classify the circulation patterns in the Atlantic-European sector and to reveal linkages between anomalies in the pressure field over the North Atlantic (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) and its respective circulation pattern occurrence over continents on the one hand and rain fields on the other hand. Changes in atmospheric circulation over Europe during the past 50 years were examined using both objective (modes of low-frequency variability inferred by regression analysis and objective cluster classification of circulation types-fuzzy logic) and subjective (Hess-Brezowsky classification of weather types) methods. The grid monthly geopotential (H700)| wind zonal and meridional velocity components (U850 and V850) as well as the surface atmosphere pressure (SAP) and precipitation fields acquired from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset (for 1948-1998) were employed in this study. Joint regression analysis and fuzzy logic classification of these fields was it basic tool for finding major circulation regimes. The fuzzy set analysis of these fields revealed that the major circulation regimes over eastern North Atlantic and Europe were determined in summer by three vorticity poles: (1) North-western (Scandinavia)| (2) Western Mediterranean and (3) Caucasian. It is worth noting that an anticyclone occurred in the western part of the North Atlantic for both seasons. The Scandinavia cyclone area explains rain rate maximums located in the 50-60 degrees latitude European area and the lower rain rate in Southern Europe because of hot and dry African air inflow. In late fall and winter the vorticity system consists of three other poles: (1) North-western| (2) Northern Africa and (3) Northern Russia (Kara Sea). A zonal circulation type dominates in this case and more precipitation is delivered from the Atlantic. Rain rate is more uniformly distributed in the winter in various latitude belts across Europe than in summer| but more intensive precipitation occurred in Southern Europe because of strong moisture transport into this area from Atlantic NAO as well as the substantially larger their magnitude of Arctic Oscillation (AO) indexes in the late 1980s and 1990s during global warming. The atmospheric circulation patterns| which transported very wet Atlantic air| moved northward during last two decades. As a consequence| the climate in Southern Europe became drier and respective rain amounts reduced primarily in the warmer part of year. In contrast| the rain rate increased here in the colder part of the year. This leads to more frequent floods and a wetter climate in autumn/winter. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10119,2009,3,3,Evaluating CO(2) reduction strategies in the US,We constructed a model to simulate emissions of CO(2) from electricity generation in the US and| using the model| we developed 20-year projections of emissions under various regulatory scenarios. We concluded that the State renewable portfolio standards (RPS) adopted by 23 States will decrease emissions by a mere 4.5% relative to business-as-usual (BaU) conditions. By comparison| possible national GHG control strategies such as applying the California standards to the entire US or imposing a 2000-level cap on CO(2) emissions would result in a reduction of 34% relative to BaU. Finally| imposing a 1990-level cap on CO(2) emissions would result in a reduction of 49% relative to BaU. Notwithstanding these findings| we demonstrate that| even the most ambitious GHC reduction strategies being contemplated in the US for the energy generating sector will not reach the 60% reduction| generally regarded as necessary. on a global scale and from all CO(2)-emitting sectors to prevent an atmospheric warming of about 2 degrees. We conclude that efforts now need to focus| not only on reducing GHG emissions| but equally on preparing for the inevitable climate change. Beyond the scenarios evaluated in this research| the model can serve as a flexible tool for determining whether a given strategy will achieve the desired CO(2) emission reduction goal. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9496,2009,4,3,Evaluating Global Warming Potentials with historical temperature,Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are evaluated with historical temperature by applying them to convert historical CH(4) and N(2)O emissions to equivalent CO(2) emissions. Our GWP analysis is based on an inverse estimation using the Aggregated Carbon Cycle| Atmospheric Chemistry| and Climate Model (ACC2). We find that| for both CH(4) and N(2)O| indices higher than the Kyoto GWPs (100-year time horizon) would reproduce better the historical temperature. The CH(4) GWP provides a best fit to the historical temperature when it is calculated with a time horizon of 44 years. However| the N(2)O GWP does not approximate well the historical temperature with any time horizon. We introduce a new exchange metric| TEMperature Proxy index (TEMP)| that is defined so that it provides a best fit to the temperature projection of a given period. By comparing GWPs and TEMPs| we find that the inability of the N(2)O GWP to reproduce the historical temperature is caused by the GWP calculation methodology in IPCC using simplifying assumptions for the background system dynamics and uncertain parameter estimations. Furthermore| our TEMP calculations demonstrate that indices have to be progressively updated upon the acquisition of new measurements and/or the advancement of our understanding of Earth system processes. 10018,2009,2,3,Evaluating the "Rich-Get-Richer'' Mechanism in Tropical Precipitation Change under Global Warming,Examining tropical regional precipitation anomalies under global warming in 10 coupled global climate models| several mechanisms are consistently found. The tendency of rainfall to increase in convergence zones with large climatological precipitation and to decrease in subsidence regions-the rich-get-richer mechanism-has previously been examined in different approximations by Chou and Neelin| and Held and Soden. The effect of increased moisture transported by the mean circulation (the "direct moisture effect'' or "thermodynamic component'' in respective terminology) is relatively robust| while dynamic feedback is poorly understood and differs among models. The argument outlined states that the thermodynamic component should be a good approximation for large-scale averages; this is confirmed for averages across convection zones and descent regions| respectively. Within the convergence zones| however| dynamic feedback can substantially increase or decrease precipitation anomalies. Regions of negative precipitation anomalies within the convergence zones are associated with local weakening of ascent| and some of these exhibit horizontal dry advection associated with the "upped-ante'' mechanism. Regions of increased ascent have strong positive precipitation anomalies enhanced by moisture convergence. This dynamic feedback is consistent with reduced gross moist stability due to increased moisture not being entirely compensated by effects of tropospheric warming and a vertical extent of convection. Regions of reduced ascent with positive precipitation anomalies are on average associated with changes in the vertical structure of vertical velocity| which extends to higher levels. This yields an increase in the gross moist stability that opposes ascent. The reductions in ascent associated with gross moist stability and upped-ante effects| respectively| combine to yield reduced ascent averaged across the convergence zones. Over climatological subsidence regions| positive precipitation anomalies can be associated with a convergence zone shift induced locally by anomalous heat flux from the ocean. Negative precipitation anomalies have a contribution from the thermodynamic component but can be enhanced or reduced by changes in the vertical velocity. Regions of enhanced subsidence are associated with an increased outgoing longwave radiation or horizontal cold convection. Reductions of subsidence are associated with changes of the vertical profile of vertical velocity| increasing gross moist stability. 9325,2009,2,3,Evaluating the potential impact of global warming on the UAE residential buildings - A contribution to reduce the CO(2) emissions,There is significant evidence that the world is warming. The International Panel of Climate Change stated that there would be a steady increase in the ambient temperature during the end of the 21st century. This increase will impact the built environment| particularly the requirements of energy used for airconditioning buildings. This paper discusses issues related to the potential impact of global warming on air-conditioning energy use in the hot climate of the United Arab Emirates. Al-Ain city was chosen for this study. Simulation studies and energy analysis were employed to investigate the energy consumption of buildings and the most effective measures to cope with this impact under different climate scenarios. The paper focuses on residential buildings and concludes that global warming is likely to increase the energy used for cooling buildings by 23.5% if Al-Ain city warms by 5.9 degrees C. The net CO(2) emissions could increase at around 5.4% over the next few decades. The simulation results show that the energy design measures such as thermal insulation and thermal mass are important to cope with global warming| while window area and glazing system are beneficial and sensitive to climate change| whereas the shading devices are moderate as a building CO(2) emissions saver and insensitive to global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10293,2009,3,2,Evaluation of forest operations in Spanish eucalypt plantations under a life cycle assessment perspective,The forest is an essential natural resource providing multiple benefits to people. However| forests face several environmental problems created by modern industrial society such as acidification| eutrophication and global warming. This study investigated the environmental loads associated with the Spanish forest sector| where this activity plays an important role in socioeconomic development. A Eucalyptus globulus plantation located in north-western Spain was considered as a case study. Forest operations were divided into three subsystems: silvicultural operations| logging operations and secondary hauling. The results showed that logging operations consume more energy than any other part of the wood supply chain| with a remarkable contribution in the potential impact categories of global warming| acidification and photochemical oxidant formation. Transportation of timber from forest landing to industrial sites (secondary hauling) is the second most important energy user. Silvicultural operations made an important contribution to eutrophication| mainly due to phosphorus-based fertilizer application. This study will enable improved Iberian life cycle assessment studies of wood products in the absence of detailed studies for this region. 817,2009,4,4,EVALUATION OF SURFACE AND RADAR-ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION DATA SOURCES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALLUVIAL PLAIN,The Mississippi River floodplain in northwestern Mississippi and eastern Arkansas| often referred to as the Mississippi Delta| is extremely important for regional economic stability and growth due to the widespread agriculture in the area. Precipitation is often the limiting factor in crop production| and thus knowledge of precipitation variability is essential. The region is unique in currently having three sources of precipitation observations: (1) multi-sensor precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service (NWS) NEXRAD network; (2) surface observations from NWS recording stations; and (3) surface observations from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) recording stations. For meteorological and climatological precipitation research| quantitatively defining the biases associated with available precipitation data sources is critical in selecting which source to use for a given application. Results of this research indicate that the multi-sensor data are in best agreement with surface observations during the cool season (October-March) when stratiform precipitation dominates| whereas only moderate correlations exist during the warm season. Additionally| overall bias values among the data sources decrease after 2002| at which point the remotely sensed and surface-based estimates show improved agreement. 10035,2009,3,4,Evidence for improvements in containment of fluorinated hydrocarbons during use: an analysis of reported European emissions,As part of their commitment under the Rio Convention|(1) nations are required to report annual calculated emissions of greenhouse gases. The fluorine containing members of this group| which are generally potent greenhouse gases with high Global Warming Potentials| are mainly used in refrigeration and air conditioning. They are emitted only slowly from such systems; hence long term containment is an important engineering and environmental issue. European legislation is designed to effect improvements in containment and a simple way to monitor this would be desirable. The reports submitted by European countries have been examined to determine the extent to which containment (expressed as the rate of emission from the bank remaining in equipment) has changed with time. Although there is a wide variation between countries| the annual emission rates of most of the gases used in refrigeration have improved significantly over the past 10 years and now represent between 5 and 10% of the bank still contained in equipment. This implies that it would take between 10 and 20 years for the original mass of refrigerant charged into a system to be released into the atmosphere. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 769,2009,5,4,Evidence for prolonged El Nino-like conditions in the Pacific during the Late Pleistocene: a 43 ka noble gas record from California groundwaters,Information on the ocean/atmosphere state over the period spanning the Last Glacial Maximum - from the Late Pleistocene to the Holocene - provides crucial constraints on the relationship between orbital forcing and global climate change. The Pacific Ocean is particularly important in this respect because of its dominant role in exporting heat and moisture from the tropics to higher latitudes. Through targeting groundwaters in the Mojave Desert| California| we show that noble gas derived temperatures in California averaged 4.2 +/- 1.1 degrees C cooler in the Late Pleistocene (from similar to 43 to similar to 12 ka) compared to the Holocene (from - 10 to - 5 ka). Furthermore| the older groundwaters contain higher concentrations of excess air (entrained air bubbles) and have elevated oxygen-18/oxygen-16 ratios (delta(18)O) - indicators of vigorous aquifer recharge| and greater rainfall amounts and/or more intense precipitation events| respectively. Together| these paleoclimate indicators reveal that cooler and wetter conditions prevailed in the Mojave Desert from similar to 43 to similar to 12 ka. We suggest that during the Late Pleistocene| the Pacific ocean/atmosphere state was similar to present-day El Nino-like patterns| and was characterized by prolonged periods of weak trade winds| weak upwelling along the eastern Pacific margin| and increased precipitation in the southwestern U.S. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 9310,2009,2,4,Evidence of a genetic bottleneck in an El Nino affected population of South American fur seals| Arctocephalus australis,The South American fur seal| Arctocephalus australis| was one of the earliest otariid seals to be exploited by humans: at least 6000 years ago on the Atlantic coast and 4000 on the Pacific coast of South America. More than 750|000 fur seals were killed in Uruguay until 1991. However| a climatological phenomenon-the severe 1997-1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-was responsible for the decline of 72% Of the Peruvian fur seal population due to starvation as a consequence of warming of sea-surface temperatures and primary productivity reduction. Currently| there is no precise information on global population size or on the species' conservation status. The present study includes the first bottleneck test for the Pacific and Atlantic populations of A. australis based on the analysis of seven microsatellite loci. Genetic bottleneck compromises the evolutionary potential of a population to respond to environmental changes. The perspective becomes even more alarming due to current global warming models that predict stronger and more frequent ENSO events in the future. Our analysis found moderate support for deviation from neutrality-equilibrium for the Pacific population of fur seals and none for the Atlantic population. This difference among population reflects different demographic histories| and is consistent with a greater reduction in population size in the Pacific. Such an event could be a result of the synergic effects of recurrent ENSO events and the anthropogenic impact (sealing and prey overfishing) on this population. 9421,2009,5,4,Evidence of Late Palaeocene-Early Eocene equatorial rain forest refugia in southern Western Ghats| India,Equatorial rain forests that maintain a balance between speciation and extinction are hot-spots for studies of biodiversity. Western Ghats in southern India have gained attention due to high tropical biodiversity and endemism in their southern most area. We attempted to track the affinities of the pollen flora of the endemic plants of Western Ghat area within the fossil palynoflora of late Palaeocene-early Eocene (similar to 55-50 Ma) sedimentary deposits of western and northeastern Indian region. The study shows striking similarity of extant pollen with twenty eight most common fossil pollen taxa of the early Palaeogene. Widespread occurrences of coal and lignite deposits during early Palaeogene provide evidence of existence of well diversified rain forest community and swampy vegetation in the coastal low lying areas all along the western and northeastern margins of the Indian subcontinent. Prevalence of excessive humid climate during this period has been seen as a result of equatorial positioning of Indian subcontinent| superimposed by a long term global warming phase (PETM and EECO) during the early Palaeogene. The study presents clear evidence that highly diversified equatorial rain forest vegetation once widespread in the Indian subcontinent during early Palaeogene times| are now restricted in a small area as a refugia in the southernmost part of the Western Ghat area. High precipitation and shorter periods of dry months seem to have provided suitable environment to sustain lineages of ancient tropical vegetation in this area of Western Ghats in spite of dramatic climatic changes subsequent to the post India-Asia collision and during the Quaternary and Recent times. 854,2009,2,4,Evolutionary change in flowering phenology in the iteroparous herb Beta vulgaris ssp maritima: a search for the underlying mechanisms,The potential for evolutionary change in flowering time has gained considerable attention in view of the current global climate change. To explore this potential and its underlying mechanisms in the iteroparous perennial Beta vulgaris ssp. maritima (sea beet)| artificial selection for earlier and later flowering date was applied under semi-natural greenhouse conditions. Mean flowering date occurred more than 30 d earlier in 13 generations in the early selection line| but response was weaker in the late selection line. Taking advantage of the growing knowledge on the genetics and the physiology of flowering induction| particularly in Arabidopsis thaliana| the results obtained here were analysed in terms of the four different pathways of flowering induction known in this species. A first significant correlated response was stem elongation (bolting) in the vegetative stage| suggesting that plants were thus able to flower earlier as long as other requirements were satisfied. Vernalization had a clear influence on flowering date and its influence increased during the selection process| together with sensitivity to photoperiod. Vernalization and photoperiod could compensate for each other: each additional week of vernalization at 5 degrees C decreased the necessary daylength for flowering by about 15 min during the later selection stages| while in unselected plants| it was about 7 min. Devernalizing effects were observed at short days combined with higher temperatures. Special attention was given to the role of the B (bolting) gene that cancels the vernalization requirement. The results here obtained suggest that all four known pathways may simultaneously participate in evolutionary change. 10322,2009,2,4,Examination of heat stress caused milk production loss by the use of temperature-humidity indices,Global warming has caused increasing concern about heat stress. In cattle| heat stress affects both the production and reproduction negatively. Several temperature-humidity indices (THI) are in use to quantify the degree of heat stress. In this study| the authors compared six such indices| together with their thresholds indicating danger of heat stress| for applicability in Hungary. Data from the data base of the cattle farm of Enyingi Agrar Inc. in Kiscserpuszta| Hungary were used in the study. Those cows were selected (n=1007)| which had production records on at least 600 days in the study period (1. 10. 2001 to 16. 3. 2004). The authors found that two of the six indices worked well on these data in the sense they were able to indicate reduction of milk production due to heat stress. The results show that heat stress affects the production immediately| and even a single heat stress day causes an average milk loss of 1.5 to 2 liters per cow per day (5-10% of the daily production). One to three-day heat stress periods were found to result in about the same milk loss. 10133,2009,2,4,Exaptation in corals to high seawater temperatures: Low concentrations of apoptotic and necrotic cells in host coral tissue under bleaching conditions,Scleractinian corals are known to suffer bleaching or loss of their symbiotic zooxanthellae under conditions of elevated seawater temperatures often associated with climate change (i.e. global warming). This can occur on a massive scale and has caused the decimation of reefs on a global basis. During the bleaching process| the expelled zooxanthellae suffer cell damage from heat stress| characterized by irreversible ultrastructural and physiological changes which are symptomatic of cell degeneration and death (called apoptosis) or necrosis. A question that remains unanswered| however| is whether the coral hosts themselves are sensitive to seawater temperatures| and| if so| to what degree? In a controlled experiment| we exposed corals Acropora hyacinthus (Dana| 1846) and Porites solida (Forskal| 1775) with their symbiotic zooxanthellae (Symbiodinium sp.) to temperatures of 28 degrees C (control)| 30 degrees C| 32 degrees C| and 34 degrees C for 48 h and also to 36 degrees C for 12 h. We assessed coral and zooxanthellar cells in-situ for symptoms of apoptosis and necrosis using transmission electron microscopy (TEM)| fluorescent microscopy (FM)| and flow cytometry (FC). We found that the coral host cells in-situ exhibited| for the most part| little or no mortality from increased seawater temperatures. Damage to the coral hosts only occurred under conditions of prolonged exposure (>= 12 h) at high temperatures (34 degrees C) or at exceptionally high temperatures (e.g. 36 degrees C). On the other hand| we found high levels of apoptosis and necrosis in the zooxanthellae in-situ under all treatment conditions of elevated seawater temperatures. We found that during bleaching| the hostcells are not experiencing much mortality - but the zooxanthellae| even while still within the host| are. The host corals exhibit exaptation to accommodate temperatures as high as >= 34 *C. Temperature stress within these highly specific and coevolved symbiotic systems is derived not from host sensitivity to temperature| but from the symbiont's sensitivity and the loss of the coral's endosymbiotic partners. Published by Elsevier B.V. 9584,2009,2,3,Expansion of the world's deserts due to vegetation-albedo feedback under global warming,Many subtropical regions are expected to become drier due to climate change. This will lead to reduced vegetation which may in turn amplify the initial drying. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model with a dynamic vegetation component that predicts surface albedo change| here we simulate the climate change from 1901 to 2099 with CO(2) and other forcings. In a standard IPCC-style simulation| the model simulated an increase in the world's 'warm desert' area of 2.5 million km(2) or 10% at the end of the 21st century. In a more realistic simulation where the vegetation-albedo feedback was allowed to interact| the 'warm desert' area expands by 8.5 million km 2 or 34%. This occurs mostly as an expansion of the world's major subtropical deserts such as the Sahara| the Kalahari| the Gobi| and the Great Sandy Desert. It is suggested that vegetation-albedo feedback should be fully included in IPCC future climate projections. Citation: Zeng| N.| and J. Yoon (2009)| Expansion of the world's deserts due to vegetation-albedo feedback under global warming| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L17401| doi:10.1029/2009GL039699. 9467,2009,4,3,Experience of the forecast of water and power resources changes at warming of the 21st century,Global warming causes changes of those natural resources like power resources| water resources| agroclimatic and ecological resources etc. And these changes depend on climate. Dynamics of resources depends both on planned economic activities and on changes of a climate. In this work the climatic component of changes is discussed. Projecting results used in this paper are based on the data of the CMIP3 (coupled model intercomparison project) in the framework of Working Group on Coupled Modelling. This project includes the world's best climate models. Results of modelling and the data of meteorological observations expressed by probability distribution functions (or empirical orthogonal functions) were compared. It was shown that the modelling data were much more reliable over flat territories. In result 11 most successful models were selected. They can be used for the forecast within the framework of known IPCC scenario A2 at the 21st century. Estimations of changes of volumes of a river runoff and conditions of humidity of territory have been allowed to determine that the serious reduction of resources is expected in the southern part of the East European plain. Its central and northern parts practically will not demonstrate changes. 9908,2009,3,4,Experimental investigation of R290/R600a mixture as an alternative to R134a in a domestic refrigerator,R134a is the most widely used refrigerant in domestic refrigerators. It must be phased out soon according to Kyoto protocol due to its high global warming potential (GWP) of 1300. In the present work| an experimental investigation has been made with hydrocarbon refrigerant mixture (composed of R290 and R600a in the ratio of 45.2:54.8 by weight) as an alternative to R134a in a 200 1 single evaporator domestic refrigerator. Continuous running tests were performed under different ambient temperatures (24| 28. 32. 38 and 43 degrees C)| while cycling running (ON/OFF) tests were carried Out only at 32 degrees C ambient temperature. The results showed that the hydrocarbon mixture has lower values of energy consumption; pull down time and ON time ratio by about 11.1%| 11.6% and 13.2%| respectively| with 3.25-3.6% higher coefficient of performance (COP). The discharge temperature of hydrocarbon mixture was found to be 8.5 to 13.4 K lower than that of R134a. The overall performance has proved that the above hydrocarbon refrigerant mixture Could be the best long term alternative to phase out R134a. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved. 1019,2009,3,3,Experimental Investigations To Study the Characteristics of Rubber-Seed-Oil-Fueled Diesel Engine Supplemented with Diethyl Ether,Producing and using renewable fuels for transportation is one approach to a sustainable energy future for the world. A renewable fuel contributes to a lesser global climate change. Vegetable oil derivatives| namely| biodiesel| is being used in smaller volumes in some of the present day diesel engines. High smoke emission and lower thermal efficiency are the main problems associated with the use of neat vegetable oils in diesel engines. In the present paper we report on the utilization of rubber seed oil (RSO) as a primary fuel with eiethyl ether (DEE) as a combustion enhancer in a diesel engine. DEE was recently reported as a renewable fuel and a low-emission high-quality combustion improver. A single-cylinder| four-stroke| air-cooled direct injection diesel engine having a rated output of 4.4 kW was used for the experiments. DEE was injected into the intake port during the suction stroke| while RSO was injected directly inside the cylinder at the end of the compression stroke [23 degrees BTDC (before top dead center)]. Parameters such as the injection timing| duration| and quantity of DEE were optimized at different loads. The brake thermal efficiency improves from 26.5% with neat RSO to a maximum of 28.5% with DEE injected at a rate of 200 g/h. The results also indicate a reduction in emissions except the NO(x) level at all loads. Smoke is reduced significantly from 6.1 to 4 BSU (Bosch smoke units) with DEE injection. The combustion duration decreases with DEE injection| which will contribute to a higher heat release rate in the initial stages of combustion. On the whole it is concluded that DEE can be injected into the inlet port to reduce emissions and improve the thermal efficiency of vegetable-oil-fueled diesel. 9591,2009,3,4,Experimental study of the effects of vegetable oil methyl ester on DI diesel engine performance characteristics and pollutant emissions,Vegetable oil methyl ester (VOME) is produced through the transesterification of vegetable oil and can be used as biodiesel in diesel engines as a renewable| nontoxic| and potentially environmentally friendly fossil fuel alternative in light of growing concerns regarding global warming and increasing oil prices. This study used VOME fuels produced from eight commonly seen oil bases to conduct a series of engine tests to investigate the effects of VOME on the engine performance| exhaust emissions| and combustion characteristics. The experimental results showed that using VOME in an unmodified direct injection (DI) diesel engine yielded a higher brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC) due to the VOME fuel's lower calorific value. The high cetane number of VOME also imparted a better ignition quality and the high intrinsic oxygen content advanced the combustion process. The earlier start of combustion and the rapid combustion rate led to a drastic increase in the heat release rate (HRR) and the in-cylinder combustion pressure (ICCP) during the premixed combustion phase. A higher combustion rate resulted in higher peaks of HRR and ICCP as well as near the top dead center (TDC) position. Thus| it was found that a diesel engine fueled with VOME could potentially produce the same engine power as one fueled with petroleum diesel (PD)| but with a reduction in the exhaust gas temperature (EGT)| smoke and total hydrocarbon (THC) emissions| albeit with a slight increase in nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) emissions. In addition| the VOME which possesses shorter carbon chains| more saturated bonds| and a higher oxygen content also yields a lower EGT as well as reduced smoke| NO(x)| and THC emissions. However| this is obtained at the detriment of an increased BSFC. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9872,2009,3,3,Experimental study on performance of automotive air conditioning system using R-152a refrigerant,Recently| as climate changes have manifested worldwide| every country is making efforts to prevent ozone depletion and global warming. In the automotive industry| R-134a refrigerant is widely used in air conditioning systems because it has zero ozone depletion potential (ODP). Unfortunately| its global warming potential (GWP) is high. Therefore| alternative refrigerants are needed as a replacement for R-134a. R-152a is considered to be one of the better alternative refrigerants due to zero ODP and low GWP. In this paper| the performance of an automotive air conditioning system using R-134a and one using R-152a are compared experimentally at the bench level. The experimental apparatus simulated a real automotive air conditioning system consisting of a cabin and engine room structure. The cooling capacity| condensing capacity| coefficient of performance (COP) and power consumption characteristics of the automotive air conditioning system are evaluated by changing the air velocity entering the condenser and the compressor rotation speed with the optimized refrigerant charge amount. Also| the performance of the R-152a system was investigated by changing the thermostatic expansion valve which is set of values. The results of this study show that the R-152a system is slightly better than the R-134a system| not only under driving conditions but also under idling condition. R-152a refrigerant thus shows promise as an alternative refrigerant to replace the current standard| R-134a| in automotive air conditioning systems. 9981,2009,3,3,Explaining the Differential Solubility of Flue Gas Components in Ionic Liquids from First-Principle Calculations,Flue gas is greatly responsible for acid rain formation and global warming. New generation ionic liquids (ILs) have potential in controlling the flue gas emissions| as they acquire high absorptivity for the component gases SO(2)| CO(2)| etc. The association of the IL-gas interactions to the absorptivity of gas molecules in ILs is| however| poorly understood. In this paper| we present a molecular level description of the interactions of ILs with SO(2)| CO(2)| and N(2) and show its implications to the differential gas solubility. Our results indicate that the IL anion-gas interactions play a key role in deciding the gas solubility in ILs| particularly for polar gases Such as SO(2). On the other hand| regular solution assumption applies to N(2) solubility. In accordance with the previous theoretical and experimental findings| our results also imply that the IL anions dominate the interactions with gas molecules while the cations play a secondary role and the underlying fluid structures of the ILs remain unperturbed by the addition of gas molecules. 10205,2009,4,3,Explicit calculation of indirect global warming potentials for halons using atmospheric models,The concept of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) has been extensively used in policy consideration as a relative index for comparing the climate impact of an emitted greenhouse gas (GHG)| relative to carbon dioxide with equal mass emissions. Ozone depletion due to emission of chlorinated or brominated halocarbons leads to cooling of the climate system in the opposite direction to the direct warming contribution by halocarbons as GHGs. This cooling is a key indirect effect of the halocarbons on climatic radiative forcing| which is accounted for by indirect GWPs. With respect to climate| it is critical to understand net influences considering direct warming and indirect cooling effects especially for Halons due to the greater ozone-depleting efficiency of bromine over chlorine. Until now| the indirect GWPs have been calculated using a parameterized approach based on the concept of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) and the observed ozone depletion over the last few decades. As a step towards obtaining indirect GWPs through a more robust approach| we use atmospheric models to explicitly calculate the indirect GWPs of Halon-1211 and Halon-1301 for a 100-year time horizon. State-of-the-art global chemistry-transport models (CTMs) were used as the computational tools to derive more realistic ozone depletion changes caused by an added pulse emission of the two major Halons at the surface. The radiative forcings on climate from the ozone changes have been calculated for indirect GWPs using an atmospheric radiative transfer model (RTM). The simulated temporal variations of global average total column Halons after a pulse perturbation follow an exponential decay with an e-folding time which is consistent with the expected chemical lifetimes of the Halons. Our calculated indirect GWPs for the two Halons are much smaller than those from past studies but are within a single standard deviation of WMO (2007) values and the direct GWP values derived agree with the published values. Our model-based assessment of the Halon indirect GWPs thus confirms the significant importance of indirect effects on climate. 9902,2009,2,4,Exploration of the influence of global warming on the chironomid community in a manipulated shallow groundwater system,Uncertainty about predicted effects of global warming on freshwater ecosystems led us to manipulate the thermal regime of a shallow groundwater ecosystem. The study area was separated into a control and treatment block using a sheet-metal groundwater divide to a depth of 1 m. Temperatures were increased according to General Circulation Model (GCM) projections for Southern Ontario| Canada. We examined the response of the groundwater chironomid community during pre-manipulation| manipulation and recovery periods. We found that warming decreased the total abundance of chironomids whereas no significant change in taxonomic richness was apparent. Interestingly| taxon composition changed markedly during both the manipulation and the recovery period. Whereas Heterotrissocladius disappeared during the manipulation in the treatment block| other coldstenothermal taxa such as Micropsectra| Parametriocnemus and Heleniella remained unaffected. Conversely| Corynoneura| Polypedilum and Thienemannia gracilis disappeared but were not reported as coldstenothermal. The chironomid community composition in the system changed from a Heterotrissocladius| Brillia| and Tanytarsini-dominated community during the pre-manipulation towards one dominated by Parametriocnemus| Polypedilum| Orthocladius/Cricotopus and Corynoneura during the recovery. Although increased temperature had a strong effect| chironomid occurrence was also influenced by a number of other abiotic variables| such as dissolved oxygen| depth| ammonia concentration and TDS (Total dissolved solids). 9952,2009,2,4,Exploring lake ecosystems: hierarchy responses to long-term change?,Shifts in climate regime have provoked substantial trophic- and species-dependent changes within ecosystems. With growing concerns of present global warming| we examined potential lake ecosystem responses| natural hierarchy responses (i.e. immediate responses at lower system levels as opposed to delayed responses at higher system levels)| and possible shifts among abiotic (physics| nutrients) and biotic (phytoplankton| zooplankton) system components. Specifically| we analyzed decadal data collected from Muggelsee| a lake in Berlin| Germany| for climate-induced abiotic and biotic changes| their timing and type| and classified them as abrupt permanent| gradual permanent| abrupt temporary| or monotonic. We further categorized variable changes as a function of system hierarchy| including lake physics (ice| temperature| stratification)| nutrients (phosphorus| nitrogen| silicate)| plankton| and levels of integration (i.e. species| taxonomic groups| and total plankton). Contrary to current theory| data suggest abrupt responses did not occur in a hierarchy-dependent manner| nor was a clear pattern observed among functional system-based categories. Abrupt permanent changes were the most prominent response pattern observed| suggesting they may be driven by large-scale climatic oscillations and by surpassed thresholds| as noted in previous case studies. Gradual changes coincided with affected abiotic parameters spanning an expansive time range; for example| climatic effects in spring preceded changes in nutrient limitation. Variables displaying no long-term changes pointed to compensation processes caused by| e.g.| simultaneously acting forces of warming trends and climate-independent changes in trophic state. Nevertheless| the complexity of response patterns at the single system level manifested clear chronological regime shifts in abiotic and biotic parameters in spring and| to a lesser extent| in summer. With regard to projected global warming| the majority of currently unaffected system levels may face impending thermal thresholds| achievement of which would result in an accelerated shift in ecosystem state. 10313,2009,2,4,Exploring species attributes and site characteristics to assess plant invasions in Spain,Biological invasions are a major component of global change with increasing effects on natural ecosystems and human societies. Here| we aim to assess the relationship between plant invader species attributes and the extent of their distribution range size| at the same time that we assess the association between environmental factors and plant invader species richness. Spain| Mediterranean region. From the species perspective| we calculated the distribution range size of the 106 vascular plant invaders listed in a recently published atlas of alien plant species in Spain. Range size was used as an estimation of the degree of invasion success of the species. To model variation in range size between species as a function of a set of species attributes| we adopted the framework of the generalized linear mixed models because they allow the incorporation of taxonomic categories as nested random factors to control for phylogenetic relationships. From the invaded site perspective| we determined invader plant species richness as the number of species for each 10 x 10 km Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) grid. For each grid cell| we estimated variables concerning landscape| topography| climate and human settlement. Then| we performed a generalized linear mixed model incorporating a defined spatial correlation structure to assess the relationship between plant invader richness and the environmental predictors. From the species perspective| wind dispersal and minimum residence time appeared to favour invasion success. From the invaded site perspective| we identified high anthropogenic disturbance| low altitude| short distance to the coastline and dry| hot weather as the main correlates to UTM grid cell invader richness. According to these results| an increasing importance of man-modified ecosystems and global warming in the Mediterranean region should facilitate the expansion of plant invaders| especially wind-dispersed species| leading to the accumulation of invasive species in some sites (i.e. invasion hot spots). 808,2009,5,4,EXPLOSIVE RADIATION OR CRYPTIC MASS EXTINCTION ? INTERPRETING SIGNATURES IN MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES,How biodiversity is generated and maintained underlies many major questions in evolutionary biology| particularly relating to the tempo and pattern of diversification through time. Molecular phylogenies and new analytical methods provide additional tools to help interpret evolutionary processes. Evolutionary rates in lineages sometimes appear punctuated| and such "explosive" radiations are commonly interpreted as adaptive| leading to causative key innovations being sought. Here we argue that an alternative process might explain apparently rapid radiations ("broom-and-handle" or "stemmy" patterns seen in many phylogenies) with no need to invoke dramatic increase in the rate of diversification. We use simulations to show that mass extinction events can produce the same phylogenetic pattern as that currently being interpreted as due to an adaptive radiation. By comparing simulated and empirical phylogenies of Australian and southern African legumes| we find evidence for coincident mass extinctions in multiple lineages that could have resulted from global climate change at the end of the Eocene. 10212,2009,2,4,Expression of the 70 kDa Heat shock protein family in Alpine freshwater chironomids (Diptera| Chironomidae) under natural conditions,Chironomidae represent up to 100% of the fauna of Alpine streams. Because they survive stress conditions such as extremelyl low temperature (annual mean <4 degrees C)| these animals represent a good organism model to analyze the relationship between adaptation to cold and expression of stress proteins such as the 70 kDa Heat shock protein family. Fourth instar larvae of ten species of cold-stenothermal chironmids (Pseudodiamesa branickii| Diamesa latitarsis| D. laticausda| D. cinerella| D. insignipes. D zernyi| D. Vaillanti| Orthocladius (O.) frigidus. O. (Euorthocladius) thienemanni and Paratrichocladius nivalis) were collected in a glacier-fed stream in NE Italy at two stations (1300 and 2600 m a.s.l.) and in two seasons (summer 2005 and spring 2006). Immunodetection and quantification of the relative levels of Hsp70 family were performed via Western blot analysis. Significantly different level of Hsp70 were detected among species. The highest amounts were observed in the most cold-stenothermal species than in the less cold-stenothermal ones. These differences may be explained by different species autoecology. The results provide information on biochemical strategies of alpine midges to face cold temperatures under natural conditions and new insights into their possible response to global warming. 9907,2009,3,2,EXTENSIVE INTRODUCTION OF ULTRA HIGH STRENGTH STEELS SETS NEW STANDARDS FOR WELDING IN THE BODY SHOP,In order to meet upcoming legislative demands regarding acceptable levels of CO| emissions and to contribute to the fight against global warming| while also meeting customer expectations of reduced fuel consumption| all automotive OEMs are today focusing on lightweight engineering. Some of them| mainly low volume premium brands| have chosen to introduce fairly expensive lightweight materials such as aluminium and magnesium to meet these targets| whereas the main portion of high volume producers are trying to optimize the classic steel concept by introducing different grades of advanced high strength steels. Volvo Cars has decided upon a unique utilization of hot-formed| press-hardened| ultra high strength steel components featuring tensile strength levels in the order of 1 500 MPa| but on the other hand| producing these parts in very thin gauges for weight saving reasons. The first product launched according to this ultra high strength steel intensive concept was the 2008YM version of the Volvo V70 and its sibling| the cross-country version XC70| both built on the EuCD platform. The body contains several parts manufactured by hot-forming and press-hardening. The extensive use of this type of Boron alloyed steel challenged all welding methods commonly used in car body manufacturing| not least| traditional resistance spot welding. This paper will address the following topics: overview of the V70 body structure and utilization of materials| a brief description of the hot-forming| press-hardening process| the procedure for validating weldability before going into series production| lessons learnt from resistance spot welding trials of material combinations involving one or more boron alloyed steel parts| and recommendations for default welding data| influence on the manufacturing system| introducing electro-servo welding guns| adaptive weld timers and ultrasonic non-destructive weld quality checking| necessary revisions of existing spot weld requirements. The presentation will end with a glimpse at perspectives for future welding challenges in Volvo body shops| as the need for further weight saving will promote a considerable introduction of various new grades of advanced high strength steels. 10223,2009,2,4,Extreme events: being prepared for the pitfalls with progressing sustainable urban water management,It is widely accepted that new| more sustainable approaches to urban water management are required if cities and ecosystems are to become resilient to the effects of growing urban populations and global warming. Climate change predictions show that it is likely that cities around the world will be subject to an increasing number of extreme and less predictable events including flooding and drought. Historical transition studies have shown that major events such as extremes can expedite the adoption of new practices by destabilising existing management regimes and opening up new windows of opportunity for change. Yet| they can also act to reinforce and further entrench old practices. This case study of two Australian cities responding to extreme water scarcity reveals that being unprepared for extremes can undermine progress towards sustainable outcomes. The results showed that despite evidence of significant progress towards sustainable urban water management in Brisbane and Melbourne| the extreme water scarcity acted to reinforce traditional practices at the expense of emerging sustainability niches. Drawing upon empirical research and transitions literature| recommendations are provided for developing institutional mechanisms that are able to respond proactively to extreme events and be a catalyst for SUWM when such opportunities for change arise. 10084,2009,2,4,FAILURE OF AEDES ALBOPICTUS TO OVERWINTER FOLLOWING INTRODUCTION AND SEASONAL ESTABLISHMENT AT A TIRE RECYCLING PLANT IN THE NORTHEASTERN USA,In July 2006| an introduction of the Asian tiger mosquito| Aedes albopictus. was documented for the first time at a commercial tire recycling plant in northeastern Connecticut| USA. The introduction likely occurred via transport of infested tires originating from northern New Jersey or metropolitan New York City. Efforts were made to determine seasonal establishment and overwintering success by assessing adult biting and oviposition activity in the Surrounding woodlands. The first adult female was collected in a CO(2)-baited Mosquito Magnet(R) Liberty trap within the confines of the tire plant during the week of July 28. Additional females were collected intermittently thereafter through October 16. Host-seeking female Ae. albopictus attempting to alight on human subjects and larvae hatching from eggs collected in ovitraps placed in the woodlands surrounding the tire plant were detected weekly from August 21 through October 2. denoting seasonal establishment in the adjoining woodlands. However| no larvae of Ae. albopictus were recovered from eggs collected in ovitraps that were placed in the surrounding woodlands or in traps placed 1.0-1.6 kin away| nor were any host-seeking females detected by human subjects file following season (July to October 2007)| indicating that the species did not survive winter conditions to enable successful colonization. The failure of Ae. albopictus to overwinter and establish itself in the forested woodlands following several weeks of seasonal breeding and oviposition during the summer and early fall were most likely due to winter egg mortality| interspecific competition from Aedes triseriatus and Aedes Japonicus| and/or other ecological barriers. Permanent establishment of Ae. albopictus in New England is unlikely despite the recurring importation Of infested used tires into recycling facilities. However| continued monitoring of such facilities For potential reinvasion is warranted especially in urban/suburban environs where global warming and milder winter temperatures may provide more suitable conditions in the future for colonization. 10195,2009,4,4,Falling through the cracks: The role of fractures in Earth-atmosphere gas exchange,If we are to understand global warming| and in particular global water-cycling| then it is vital to explore the links between atmospheric conditions| earth processes and major global cycles. One arena that has been heretofore ignored is the effect on global dynamics of earth fractures that are open to the atmosphere. Historically| these fractures have been studied merely as participants in aquifer recharge or aquifer contamination during periods of infiltration. In general| they are considered inactive when there is no precipitation. This paper puts forward in-situ continuous field measurements demonstrating that during no-flow periods| fractures breathe via convection on a daily basis| enhancing atmospheric exchange by several orders of magnitude compared to the non-fractured crust. We quantify the timing| persistence and characteristics of this mechanism. The convective exchange mechanism is pervasive| occurring daily with peak flux exchange at night and in winter| the reverse of most other surface processes. Citation: Weisbrod| N.| M. I. Dragila| U. Nachshon| and M. Pillersdorf ( 2009)| Falling through the cracks: The role of fractures in Earth-atmosphere gas exchange| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L02401| doi: 10.1029/2008GL036096. 9736,2009,3,4,Feasibility of atmospheric methane removal using methanotrophic biotrickling filters,Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential similar to 23 times that of carbon dioxide. Here| we describe the modeling of a biotrickling filtration system composed of methane-consuming bacteria| i.e.| methanotrophs| to assess the utility of these systems in removing methane from the atmosphere. Model results indicate that assuming the global average atmospheric concentration of methane| 1.7 ppmv| methane removal is ineffective using these methanotrophic biofilters as the methane concentration is too low to enable cell survival. If the concentration is increased to 500-6|000 ppmv| however| similar to that found above landfills and in concentrated animal feeding operations (factory farms)| 4.98-35.7 tons of methane can be removed per biofilter per year assuming biotrickling filters of typical size (3.66 m in diameter and 11.5 m in height). Using reported ranges of capital| operational| and maintenance costs| the cost of the equivalent ton of CO(2) removal using these systems is $90-$910 ($2|070-$20|900 per ton of methane)| depending on the influent concentration of methane and if heating is required. The use of methanotrophic biofilters for controlling methane emissions is technically feasible and| provided that either the costs of biofilter construction and operation are reduced or the value of CO(2) credits is increased| can also be economically attractive. 9665,2009,3,3,Feasibility Study on Smooth Shift from LWR to THORIMS-NES; a Mass Balance Calculation of Fissile Materials and Minor Actinide,Nuclear energy is reconsidered against global warming but the concerns (nuclear proliferation| radioactive waste| safety etc.) make it difficult to apply widely in the world. To comprehensively solve these difficulties| we have proposed Th-(233)U fuel cycle named THORIMS-NES (Thorium molten-salt nuclear energy synergetics). We calculated the mass balance of fissile materials and the production of minor actinide (MA) governing major part of radioactive waste for evaluating the smooth shift to Th-(233)U fuel cycle. Th-(233)U fuel cycle can generate 3 TWe at around 2050 and 10 TWe at around the end of this century by applying Pu obtained from spent nuclear fuel of conventional nuclear system and (233)U produced by Accelerator Molten-Salt Breeders (AMSB). 745,2009,3,3,Fed-batch operation for bio-H(2) production by Rhodopseudomonas palustris (strain 42OL),Interest in renewable and clean energies such as hydrogen has increased because of the high level of polluting emissions| increasing costs associated with petroleum and the escalating problems of global climate change. In the presence of a light source| a microbial photosynthetic process provides a system for the conversion of some organic compounds into biomass and hydrogen. Using Rhodopseudomonas palustris as a cell-factory| hydrogen photo-evolution was investigated in a photobioreactor (PBR) irradiated either from one or two opposite sides. Irradiating the photobioreactor from only one side| in the presence of malic acid| a reactor hydrogen production of 2.786 I(H(2)) PBR(-1) was achieved. When the PBR was irradiated from two opposite sides| hydrogen photo-evolution increased to 3.162 I(H(2)) PBR(-1). Experiments were carried out using inoculum from either the retardation or the exponential growth phases. Using the latter| the highest hydrogen photo-evolution rate based on the bacteriochlorophyll (Bchl) concentration was achieved (3295 mu l(H(2)) mg (Bchl(-1) h(-1)). The hydrogen to biomass ratio (r(g)) was 1.91 l g(-1) in the medium containing malic acid and 1.07 l g(-1) in that containing acetic acid. It was found that the hydrogen production rate was higher with malic than with acetic acid. Although photobiological hydrogen production cannot furnish alone the greater and greater world requirements of clean renewable energy| it is desirable that photobiological hydrogen technology will grow| in the near future| because photobioreactors for bio-hydrogen production can be positioned in fringe areas without competition with agricultural lands. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 806,2009,5,4,Field reconnaissance of the Anti-Atlas coastline| Morocco: Fluvial and marine evidence for Late Cenozoic uplift,The available evidence regarding the disposition and chronology of Pliocene-Pleistocene fluvial terraces| coastal rock flats| raised beaches and lacustrine sediments adjoining the Anti-Atlas coastline of Morocco has been reviewed and supplemented by additional information from our own field reconnaissance. It is thus suggested that the study region has experienced uplift by similar to 130 m since the Mid-Pliocene climatic optimum (similar to 3.1 Ma)| by similar to 90 m since the latest Pliocene (similar to 2 Ma)| and by similar to 45 m since the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (similar to 0.9 Ma). Each of these phases of uplift correlates with a phase of global climate change known independently| and it is thus inferred that the observed uplift is being driven by climate through mechanisms such as erosional isostasy and the associated induced lower-crustal flow. Numerical modelling of the observed uplift history indicates that the mobile lower-crustal layer in the study region is similar to 9 km thick| with a temperature at its base of similar to 500 degrees C. The base of this mobile layer is inferred to be at similar to 24 km depth| the deepest crust consisting of a layer of mafic underplating that does not flow under ambient conditions. The principal landform in the study region| the coastal rock platform at similar to 60 m a.s.l.| thus formed during a succession of interglacial marine highstands in the late Early Pleistocene when uplift rates were low. Although control on the ages of young sediments and landforms is currently extremely limited| being dependent on regional correlation schemes rather than on absolute dating| the study region fits the pattern| emerging worldwide| that climate change is driving the systematic growth of topographic relief evident during the Late Cenozoic. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10179,2009,2,4,Fire is a key element in the landscape-scale habitat requirements and global population status of a threatened bird: The Mallee Emu-wren (Stipiturus mallee),The Mallee Emu-wren (Stipiturus mallee) is a threatened| narrow-range passerine endemic to south-eastern Australia. To inform future conservation measures for this poorly known species| we used ecological niche factor analysis| habitat suitability modelling and distance sampling to determir e landscape-scale habitat requirements and estimate the population size. Using GIS software| we integrated digital layers of ecogeographic variables with; (1) presence-only observations to derive and validate a habitat suitability model using ecological niche factor analysis| and (2) distance sampling to determine population distribution and densities across vegetation types. We detected populations in only five of seven reserves which they had occupied in 2000. We estimate the global population size to be 16|821 individuals (range 8431-39| 104)| 68% greater than the previously estimated 10|000 individuals| with a single large reserve containing the majority (similar to 92%) of the global population. The Mallee Ernu-wren is a habitat specialist| primarily occurring in mallee-Triodia vegetation that has not been burnt for at least 15 years. The highest densities were in vegetation associations containing at least a 15% cover of Triodia| however| time since the habitat was last burnt was the overriding factor in determining densities. Large-scale wildfires are a pervasive threat: to the global status of the Mallee Emu-wren| and the risk to remaining populations is exacerbated by the adverse impact of prolonged drought and the potential for altered fire regimes caused by global warming. Evaluation of the global population status| and the continued wildfire threat warranted recent reclassification of the Mallee Emu-wren from Vulnerable to Endangered according to IUCN Red List categories and criteria. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9628,2009,3,3,Fire suppression and fuels treatment effects on mixed-conifer carbon stocks and emissions,Depending on management| forests can be an important sink or source of carbon that if released as CO(2) could contribute to global warming. Many forests in the western United States are being treated to reduce fuels| yet the effects of these treatments on forest carbon are not well understood. We compared the immediate effects of fuels treatments on carbon stocks and releases in replicated plots before and after treatment| and against a reconstruction of active-fire stand conditions for the same forest in 1865. Total live-tree carbon was substantially lower in modern fire-suppressed conditions (and all of the treatments) than the same forest under an active-fire regime. Although fire suppression has increased stem density| current forests have fewer very large trees| reducing total live-tree carbon stocks and shifting a higher proportion of those stocks into small-diameter| fire-sensitive trees. Prescribed burning released 14.8 Mg C/ha| with pre-burn thinning increasing the average release by 70% and contributing 21.9-37.5 Mg C/ha in milling waste. Fire suppression may have incurred a double carbon penalty by reducing stocks and contributing to emissions with fuels-treatment activities or inevitable wildfire combustion. All treatments reduced fuels and increased fire resistance| but most of the gains were achieved with understory thinning| with only modest increases in the much heavier overstory thinning. We suggest modifying current treatments to focus on reducing surface fuels| actively thinning the majority of small trees| and removing only fire-sensitive species in the merchantable| intermediate size class. These changes would retain most of the current carbon-pool levels| reduce prescribed burn and potential future wildfire emissions| and favor stand development of large| fire-resistant trees that can better stabilize carbon stocks. 10060,2009,5,4,First report on the occurrence of Neseuretinus and Ovalocephalus trilobites in the Middle Ordovician of Iran,In the Derenjal Mountains of east Central Iran| the upper part of the Shirgesht Formation (uppermost Darriwilian) contains a distinct trilobite assemblage that includes Neseurctinus birmanicus and Ovalocephalus aff. obsoletus among others. Both genera were previously unknown in Iran. The occurrence of Ovalocephalus represents the earliest sign of westward taxon migration from China towards higher latitudes along the West Gondwanan margin| which may be related to global warming| after a short episode of cooler climate in the early to mid Darriwilian. Patterns of biogeographical distribution of Ovalocephalus and Neseuretinus Suggest that Central Iran was part of an "overlap zone" where tropical and high latitude benthic taxa mingled. 853,2009,2,4,Fitness and maternal effects in hybrids formed between transgenic oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) and wild brown mustard [B-juncea (L.) Czern et Coss.] in the field,BACKGROUND: Gene flow between crops and weedy relatives depends on the survivorship and reproduction of early-generation hybrids in a field environment. The primary aim of this study was to compare the fitness of transgenic crop x wild hybrids with their parental types and a non-transgenic crop type in the field under enhanced temperature and humidity. RESULTS: Transgenic insect-resistant oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.)| wild brown mustard [B. juncea (L.) Czern et Coss.]| their hybrids and non-transgenic B. napus were grown in such a way as to mimic field conditions after harvest under which volunteer plants might appear in agricultural settings. Factor analysis revealed that vegetative growth characteristics explained most of the observed differences among plant types. Wild brown mustard had the highest fitness during its entire life history. Hybrids had intermediate composite fitness and lowest reproductive fitness. The hybrid and the wild weed shared similar vegetative growth characteristics and seed dormancy in their respective progenies. CONCLUSION: These data indicate that there might be enhanced persistence of the transgene in warmer climates. The absence of fitness cost of the transgenes might allow transgenes to persist in ecosystems. These data will contribute to risk assessments of transgene persistence and weed management against the backdrop of global climate change. (C) 2009 Society of Chemical Industry 9284,2009,3,4,Flammability assessment of CH(2)=CFCF(3): Comparison with fluoroalkenes and fluoroalkanes,The burning velocity| flammability limits| and heat of combustion of CH(2)=CFCF(3) (1234yf) have been studied to elucidate the fundamental flammability properties of this new alternative refrigerant with low global-warming potential. The burning velocity of 1234yf was measured independently by schlieren photography and the spherical vessel method. In the spherical vessel method| the burning velocities of 1234yf and its analogues CH(2)=CFCHF(2) (1243yf) and CH(2)=CHCF(3) (1243zf) as well as those of typical fluoroalkanes CH(2)F(2) (HFC-32) and CH(3)CHF(2) (HFC-152a) were measured in mixtures of air at various O(2)/(N(2) + O(2)) ratios. The maximum burning velocity of 1234yf was found to be 1.2 +/- 0.3 cm s(-1)|which was approximately one-fifth that of HFC-32 (6.7 cm s(-1))and one order of magnitude less than those of 1243yf (19.8 cm s(-1)) and 1243zf (14.1 cm s(-1)). The flame propagation of 1234yf was highly sensitive to flame temperature compared to that of the other compounds. The measured flammability limits and calculated heat of combustion of 1234yf were also determined. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 894,2009,2,4,Flavor or Forethought: Tuhoe Traditional Management Strategies for the Conservation of Kereru (Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae novaeseelandiae) in New Zealand,Traditional knowledge from indigenous cultures about wildlife populations can offer insights beneficial for management in the face of global climate change. Semistructured interviews and workshops conducted with Maori elders from the Tuhoe tribe in the Te Urewera region of New Zealand provided knowledge about traditional management strategies for New Zealand pigeon (Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae novaeseelandiae)| known locally as kereru| as well as signals of changes in local climate patterns and how these influence kereru. We used a population simulation exercise to demonstrate the feasibility of a harvest management strategy used by the Tuhoe to sustain kereru. Our models also indicated how potential changes in climate and subsequent decisions about harvest timing might affect a theoretical kereru population. Elders identified mana (authority)| mauri (essence or life force)| tikanga (traditional custom)| and ture (societal guidelines)| and the use of tohu (signals or markings)| tapu (sacredness)| muru (social deterrent)| and rahui (temporary harvest bans) as key elements and ideologies in the traditional management of kereru. They linked an increased climatic warming trend to delays of three to four months in the fruiting of some trees| such as toromiro (Podocarpus ferrugineus)| deemed important for kereru nutrition and body condition. The Tuhoe have traditionally harvested both adult and newly fledged kereru when they are feeding on toromiro fruit| so a three-to four-month delay in fruiting could potentially defer the harvest until the prebreeding period. Our simulation models demonstrated that harvesting kereru adults and fledglings in the postbreeding stage had less impact on population abundance than only harvesting adults only during the prebreeding phase. The model indicated that the Tuhoe would need to re-evaluate their harvest strategy if climate-induced delays in toromiro fruiting were to become more frequent. This study emphasizes how using both science and the full matrix of traditional knowledge can offer wildlife management the better of two world views. 10178,2009,3,4,Flow processes and pressure evolution in aquifers during the injection of supercritical CO(2) as a greenhouse gas mitigation measure,Regional saline aquifers offer the greatest potential for very large-scale underground CO(2) storage as a means of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Their dynamic storage capacity| in terms of induced increases in formation pressure| will limit the rate at which CO(2) can be injected and may ultimately limit the amount of CO that can be stored. Generic flow models were generated to examine the effects on pressure evolution of various reservoir parameters (dimensions| permeability| porosity| presence and nature of flow barriers). CO(2) injection involves dominantly hydrogeological (single-phase flow) processes in much of the reservoir and surrounding adjacent strata| with additional two-phase flow effects around the CO(2) plume itself. Large| thick aquifers with no significant flow barriers can accept high injection rates (c. 10 million tonnes of CO(2) per year) without undue pressure effects. However| flow barriers| such as faults| increase induced pressures considerably; for reservoirs with such features| careful site characterization and operational planning will be required for large storage projects. The principles established from the generic modelling were applied to a real aquifer storage operation at Sleipner in the North Sea. Here| CO(2) is being injected into the Utsira Sand| a large relatively homogeneous reservoir. Modelling indicates that pressure increase should be negligible. In fact| observed wellhead pressures do show a small rise| but this can be attributed to temperature changes in the fluid column in the wellbore. Pressure changes in the reservoir are likely to be very small. 10231,2009,2,4,Fluctuations of Raikot Glacier during the past 70 years: a case study from the Nanga Parbat massif| northern Pakistan,The Himalaya has some of the largest glacier concentrations outside the polar regions. Despite this| long-term measurements detecting the impact of global warming and changing precipitation patterns on glaciers are rare. The Nanga Parbat massif in northern Pakistan is an exception. The cartographer and glaciologist R. Finsterwalder investigated glacier dynamics of this mountain massif in the 1930s| and several other studies document changes since then. The aim of this study is to detect and analyse the changes of Raikot Glacier over the past seven decades. We use a multitemporal and multiscale approach| based on repeat terrestrial images| additional historical data and remotely sensed imagery (Corona| ASTER| Landsat| Quick Bird). The multitemporal approach covers the period 1934-2007. While the analyses show a total glacier retreat of similar to 200m in 73 years| this general trend was interrupted by a significant glacier advance between the 1950s and 1980s. Although down-wasting processes can be inferred from an increase in debris-covered area| a general trend of reduced glacier thickness does not appear significant over the whole observation period. 10131,2009,5,4,Fluorescence spectroscopy studies of humic substance fractions isolated from permanently frozen sediments of Yakutian coastal lowlands,Predictions of global warming render studies of organic matter stored in permanently frozen sediments of northernmost areas particularly topical. This paper offers results of fluorescence spectroscopy applied to the study of humic and/or humic-like fractions gained from polygenetic syncryogenic sediments in northern Yakutia in comparison with humic substances (HS) from recent soil and the Nordic (NOM) reference of aquatic natural organic matter. To isolate HS fractions from sediment and soil samples the method of sequential extraction with sulfonate resin (HS-S fraction)| carboxylate resin (HS-C fraction) and 0.1 M NaCH (HS-A fraction) was used. The HS extracts were filtered through a 0.45 mu m membrane filter| following which part of each HS fraction was broken down into humic acids (HA) and fulvic acids (EA). Synchronous fluorescence spectra were obtained on aqueous solutions of all specific HS fractions as well as HA and FA fractions isolated thereof and NOM. Variations in the main peak position and intensity seen on the synchronous fluorescence spectra of HS-S| HS-C and HS-A extracted from the same soil/sediment sample are apparently indicative of the distinct degree of hurnification of the isolated fractions. It was found that HA fractions| compared to FA fractions| show a more varied array of fluorescence observations which change depending on the source of HS. Consistent with fluorescence-produced characteristics for HS and HA fractions| sediment samples can be classified into two groups| one comprising Pleistocene sediments of the ice complex| the other sediments of the Holocene thickness and Pleistocene buried soil. The HS and HA of the first group manifest dominating peaks in the low- and i ntermed iate-wave length spectral regions| which is indicative of a relatively low degree of hurnification and certain similarity to NOM. The HS and HA fractions of the second group show a fluorescence signals set typical of recent soil| where the dominating peak of a particular fraction occurs in the long-wavelength region peculiar to a high degree of hurnification. An examination of experimental data suggests essential bioclimatic fluctuations in the region over the period of the studied sediments formation. C 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Predictions of global warming render studies of organic matter stored in permanently frozen sediments of northernmost areas particularly topical. This paper offers results of fluorescence spectroscopy applied to the study of humic and/or humic-like fractions gained from polygenetic syncryogenic sediments in northern Yakutia in comparison with humic substances (HS) from recent soil and the Nordic (NOM) reference of aquatic natural organic matter. To isolate HS fractions from sediment and soil samples the method of sequential extraction with sulfonate resin (HS-S fraction)| carboxylate resin (HS-C fraction) and 0.1 M NaOH (HS-A fraction) was used. The HS extracts were filtered through a 0.45 Pm membrane filter| following which part of each HS fraction was broken down into humic acids (HA) and fulvic acids (EA). Synchronous fluorescence spectra were obtained on aqueous solutions of all specific HS fractions as well as HA and FA fractions isolated thereof and NOM. Variations in the main peak position and intensity seen on the synchronous fluorescence spectra of HS-S| HS-C and HS-A extracted from the same soil/sediment sample are apparently indicative of the distinct degree of humification of the isolated fractions. It was found that HA fractions| compared to FA fractions| show a more varied arry of fluorescence observations which change depending on the source of HS. Consistent with fluorescence-produced characteristics for HS and HA fractions| sediment samples can be classified into two groups| one comprising Pleistocene sediments of the ice complex| the other sediments of the Holocene thickness and Pleistocene buried soil. The HS and HA of the first group manifest dominating peaks in the low- and intermediate-wave length spectral regions| which is indicative of a relatively low degree of humification and certain similarity to NOM. The HS and HA fractions of the second group show a fluorescence signals set typical of recent soil| where the dominating peak of a particular fraction occurs in the long-wavelength region peculiar to a high degree of humification. An examination of experimental data suggests essential bioclimatic fluctuations in the region over the period of the studied sediments formation. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9798,2009,2,4,Focus on agricultural biotechnology: Prospective for bio-watersaving theories and their applications in the semi-arid and arid areas,Drought and water shortage have become a world-wide problem in recent years with the effect of global warming. Water-saving agriculture has become an inevitable direction of agronomical research| it has been developed from practices through agronomic water saving to engineering water saving and to the approaches in biological water-saving. The essence of biological water-saving should be the high-efficient use of water through biological ways| namely the "utilization and exploitation of physiological and genetic potentials of organisms so as to acquire more agricultural output and better economic and ecological benefits by utilizing smaller or same amounts of water or poor quality water". As a systematic approach| biological water-saving should not only be applied with priority in crop production| but also in other aspects of agriculture and industries such as husbandry| aquaculture| landscaping| sewage water management| water and soil environmental conservations. Therefore| biological water-saving represents the human effort in the construction of a resource-saving and environmental-friendly society. 1032,2009,4,4,Food Chains in Freshwaters,There are three hypothesized controls on food-chain length (FCL): energy supply (or "resource availability")| ecosystem size and disturbance (or "environmental variation"). In this article| the evidence for controls on FCL in freshwater ecosystems is evaluated. First| the various ways FCL can be measured are defined. Food-chain length typically is estimated as (1) connectance-based FCL-an average connectance between basal resources and top consumers| (2) functional FCL-by experimental determination of functionally significant effects of a top predator on lower trophic-level biomass patterns| and (3) realized FCL-an average connectance measure weighted by energy flow between basal consumers and the consumer occupying the maximum trophic position in the food web. Second| all evidence for relationships between the three hypothetical controls and FCL in freshwater ecosystems are evaluated. The review includes studies from streams| lakes| ponds| wetlands| phytotelmata| and experimental containers. Surprisingly| few studies of FCL in freshwaters that test the same suite of controls using the same methods are found. Equally compelling results arise from case studies based on functional| realized| and connectance-based measures of FCL. Third| 10 rules of thumb that could increase similarity of future studies| thereby facilitating synthesis across systems| are suggested. Fourth| it is discussed how FCL influences the concentration of contaminants in large-bodied animals (many of which are consumed by humans) as well as the efficacy of biocontrol applications in agriculture. Finally| there is a discussion of the potential relationships between global climate change| hydrology| and FCL in freshwaters. 9794,2009,3,4,Food webs: a ladder for picking strawberries or a practical tool for practical problems?,While food webs have provided a rich vein of research material over the last 50 years| they have largely been the subject matter of the pure ecologist working in natural habitats. While there are some notable exceptions to this trend| there are| as I explain in this paper| many applied questions that could be answered using a food web approach. The paper is divided into two halves. The first half provides a brief review of six areas where food webs have begun to be used as an applied tool: restoration ecology| alien species| biological control| conservation ecology| habitat management and global warming. The second half outlines five areas in which a food web approach could prove very rewarding: urban ecology| agroecology| habitat fragmentation| cross-habitat food webs and ecosystem services. 9984,2009,2,4,Footprint of temperature changes in the temperate and boreal forest carbon balance,In this study| we use net ecosystem productivity (NEP) measurement data across several forest sites and a simple conceptual model to investigate the linkage between temperature and NEP by considering either temperature change in the recent past or current mean annual temperature (MAT) as a forcing. After removing the effect of stand age| forest NEP is only weakly correlated with MAT. However| temperature changes during the period of 1980-2002 do explain a very significant fraction of the current spatial patterns of NEP| although the response of the terrestrial carbon balance to temperature changes varies with season. Changes in spring temperature having the highest correlation with annual NEP. We also show that temperature changes before the 1970s had a limited influence on the current NEP| and that the impact of recent temperature changes within the last decade on NEP are not strong enough to be observable. Overall| our analysis indicates not only that temperature changes in the recent past is one of the important drivers of today's forest carbon balance in the Northern Hemisphere| but also that the ongoing global warming will contribute significantly to the near-future evolution of the Northern Hemisphere carbon sink. A non-equilibrium framework must be taken into account when studying the impacts of temperature change on current or future forest net carbon balance. Citation: Piao| S.| P. Friedlingstein| P. Ciais| P. Peylin| B. Zhu| and M. Reichstein (2009)| Footprint of temperature changes in the temperate and boreal forest carbon balance| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L07404| doi: 10.1029/2009GL037381. 9342,2009,5,4,Foraminiferal turnover across the Paleocene/Eocene boundary at the Zumaya section| Spain: record of a bathyal gradual mass extinction,An integrated study of benthic and planktonic foraminiferal assemblages across the Paleocene/Eocene boundary at the Zumaya section (Spain) has been carried out in order to analyse the short period that is commonly known as the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum| and its impact on the foraminiferal assemblages. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages from uppermost Paleocene and lowermost Eocene sediments at the Zumaya section contain abundant representatives of the calcareous Velasco-type fauna and of the agglutinated flysch-type fauna| indicating a lower bathyal depth of deposition. The onset of the carbon isotope excursion| which marks the Paleocene/Eocene boundary| is recorded at the base of a 40-cm thick grey marly interval (unit U2)| and it coincides with the beginning of a Benthic Foraminiferal Gradual Extinction. The pattern of extinction is adjusted more to a gradual and rapid episode rather than to a catastrophic sudden event as was proposed initially. The Paleocene/Eocene benthic foraminiferal extinction is followed by an acme of acarininids (among planktonic foraminifers) and of agglutinated benthic foraminifers| referred here as Agglutinated-Acarinina peak| which is interpreted as the result of global warming| carbonate corrosivity and environmental stress during the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum. The occurrence of a dissolution interval above the extinction event| where agglutinated benthic foraminifers are abundant and calcareous foraminifers are scarce to absent| is compatible with the global rise of the lysocline and Calcite Compensation Depth in the lower Eocene| due to the increase in partial pressure of oceanic CO(2) and therefore| in the deep ocean water corrosiveness.
10091,2009,4,2,Forced and Internal Twentieth-Century SST Trends in the North Atlantic,In recent years| two alarming trends in North Atlantic climate have been noted: an increase in the intensity and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes and a rapid decrease in Greenland ice sheet volume. Both of these phenomena occurred while a significant warming took place in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs)| thus sparking a debate on whether the warming is a consequence of natural climate variations| anthropogenic forcing| or both; and if both| what their relative roles are. Here models and observations are used to detect and attribute long-term (multidecadal) twentieth-century North Atlantic (NA) SST changes to their anthropogenic and natural causes. A suite of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) twentieth-century (C20C) coupled model simulations with multiple ensemble members and a signal-to-noise maximizing empirical orthogonal function analysis are used to identify a model-based estimate of the forced| anthropogenic component in NA SST variability. Comparing the results to observations| it is argued that the long-term| observed| North Atlantic basin-averaged SSTs combine a forced global warming trend with a distinct| local multidecadal "oscillation" that is outside of the range of the model-simulated| forced component and most likely arose from internal variability. This internal variability produced a cold interval between 1900 and 1930| followed by 30 yr of relative warmth and another cold phase from 1960 to 1990| and a warming since then. This natural variation| referred to previously as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)| thus played a significant role in the twentieth-century NA SST variability and should be considered in future| near-term climate projections as a mechanism that| depending on its behavior| can act either constructively or destructively with the region's response to anthropogenic influence| temporarily amplifying or mitigating regional climate change. 929,2009,3,3,Forest fuel reduction alters fire severity and long-term carbon storage in three Pacific Northwest ecosystems,Two forest management objectives being debated in the context of federally managed landscapes in the U. S. Pacific Northwest involve a perceived trade-off between. re restoration and carbon sequestration. The former strategy would reduce fuel ( and therefore C) that has accumulated through a century of. re suppression and exclusion which has led to extreme. re risk in some areas. The latter strategy would manage forests for enhanced C sequestration as a method of reducing atmospheric CO(2) and associated threats from global climate change. We explored the trade-off between these two strategies by employing a forest ecosystem simulation model| STANDCARB| to examine the effects of fuel reduction on. re severity and the resulting long-term C dynamics among three Pacific Northwest ecosystems: the east Cascades ponderosa pine forests| the west Cascades western hemlock-Douglas-fir forests| and the Coast Range western hemlock-Sitka spruce forests. Our simulations indicate that fuel reduction treatments in these ecosystems consistently reduced. re severity. However| reducing the fraction by which C is lost in a wild. re requires the removal of a much greater amount of C| since most of the C stored in forest biomass ( stem wood| branches| coarse woody debris) remains unconsumed even by high-severity wild. res. For this reason| all of the fuel reduction treatments simulated for the west Cascades and Coast Range ecosystems as well as most of the treatments simulated for the east Cascades resulted in a reduced mean stand C storage. One suggested method of compensating for such losses in C storage is to utilize C harvested in fuel reduction treatments as biofuels. Our analysis indicates that this will not be an effective strategy in the west Cascades and Coast Range over the next 100 years. We suggest that forest management plans aimed solely at ameliorating increases in atmospheric CO2 should forgo fuel reduction treatments in these ecosystems| with the possible exception of some east Cascades ponderosa pine stands with uncharacteristic levels of understory fuel accumulation. Balancing a demand for maximal landscape C storage with the demand for reduced wild. re severity will likely require treatments to be applied strategically throughout the landscape rather than indiscriminately treating all stands. 9797,2009,5,4,Fossil Plant Relative Abundances Indicate Sudden Loss of Late Triassic Biodiversity in East Greenland,The pace of Late Triassic (LT) biodiversity loss is uncertain| yet it could help to decipher causal mechanisms of mass extinction. We investigated relative abundance distributions (RADs) of six LT plant assemblages from the Kap Stewart Group| East Greenland| to determine the pace of collapse of LT primary productivity. RADs displayed not simply decreases in the number of taxa| but decreases in the number of common taxa. Likelihood tests rejected a hypothesis of continuously declining diversity. Instead| the RAD shift occurred over the upper two-to-four fossil plant assemblages and most likely over the last three (final 13 meters)| coinciding with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global warming. Thus| although the LT event did not induce mass extinction of plant families| it accompanied major and abrupt change in their ecology and diversity. 10160,2009,3,3,Freshwater and marine microalgae sequestering of CO(2) at different C and N concentrations - Response surface methodology analysis,Response surface methodology (RSM) was used to analyze biomass production of ten freshwater and marine microalgae cultivated on eleven different media| under varying concentrations of both CO(2) and N-source to foster development of microalgae sequestering Of CO(2) (MSCO(2)). Experimental and literature data on biomass production were used. Modeling results indicate that microalgae sequestering Of CO(2) is feasible over wide range Of CO(2) and N concentrations and under both high and low ionic strength. Microalgae sequestering of CO(2) could become a profitable industry that would help mitigate global warming (GLW) and probably| enable environmentally neutral utilization of fossil fuels until their full replacement by alternative energy sources. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 940,2009,2,4,From cells to coastlines: how can we use physiology to forecast the impacts of climate change?,The interdisciplinary fields of conservation physiology| macrophysiology| and mechanistic ecological forecasting have recently emerged as means of integrating detailed physiological responses to the broader questions of ecological and evolutionary responses to global climate change. Bridging the gap between large-scale records of weather and climate (as measured by remote sensing platforms| buoys and ground-based weather stations) and the physical world as experienced by organisms (niche-level measurements) requires a mechanistic understanding of how 'environmental signals' (parameters such as air| surface and water temperature| food availability| water flow) are translated into signals at the scale of the organism or cell (e. g. body temperature| food capture| hydrodynamic force| aerobic capacity). Predicting the impacts of how changing environments affect populations and ecosystems further mandates an understanding of how organisms 'filter' these signals via their physiological response (e. g. whether they respond to high or low frequencies| whether there is a time lag in response| etc.) and must be placed within the context of adult movement and the dispersal of larvae and gametes. Recent studies have shown that patterns of physiological stress in nature are far more complex in space and time than previously assumed and challenge the long-held paradigm that patterns of biogeographic distribution can be based on simple environmental gradients. An integrative| systems-based approach can provide an understanding of the roles of environmental and physiological variability in driving ecological responses and can offer considerable insight and predictive capacity to researchers| resource managers and policy makers involved in planning for the current and future effects of climate change. 9862,2009,3,3,From systems biology to fuel-Chlamydomonas reinhardtii as a model for a systems biology approach to improve biohydrogen production,With economic wealth the need for energy is rising. Hence we are facing two problems: to satisfy the increasing energy demand and concomitantly deliver emission-free energy to avoid global warming. The process of photosynthesis offers a natural and highly efficient method to produce emission-neutral biofuels. However| using higher plants for such purposes causes several problems which are difficult to overcome and includes competition with food producing agriculture in terms of arable land| the need for fresh water| low process efficiency and the application of energy-intensive fertilizer in order to enhance growth performance. Photosynthetic microorganisms and| in particular| microalgae offer an alternative approach. In this case production sites in photo-bioreactors can be located on cheap| rural land and the organisms can be cultured in sea water rather than fresh water. However microorganisms are not naturally adapted as efficient producers of biofuels. Due to the complex regulatory network and mutual interaction of physiological processes and organelles| identifying the optimal production strategy is impossible without a greater understanding of the complex interplay of all cellular processes. Systems biology has emerged recently as a discipline to gain an understanding of these networks and their translation into a mathematical in silico model. An in silica model allows simulating optimization steps and| therefore| provides a useful method to identify targets for directed genetic/physiological modification to optimize the system for a biotechnological approach. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 733,2009,2,4,Fuel characterization and effects of wildfire recurrence on vegetation structure on limestone soils in southeastern France,Recurrent fires are more frequent in the Mediterranean basin due to global climate change. The effects of fire recurrence (up to more than three recurrent fires with an interval since the last fire of more or less than 15 years) on the structure of fuel beds were studied at stand level in southeastern France. Three types of vegetation that are among the most common in the study area (pure pine stands| oak-pine mixed stands and shrublands) were studied to determine the role of fire recurrence on biodiversity. Fuel bed description was carried out on aboveground vegetation at understorey and overstorey levels| and on litter in 39 homogeneous study sites. The structure of the understorey was categorized following a gradient of fragmentation including: (i) isolated shrubs| (ii) vegetation patches made up of a single species and (iii) homogeneous vegetation layers including different species of the same height. The decrease of time interval since the last fire caused an opening of the canopy| except for the lowest vegetation stratum (grasses and low shrubs) that did not vary significantly. There was no significant change in horizontal connectivity between fuel beds (% of layer cover) as a function of the fire regime or the type of vegetation. Conversely| the vertical connectivity (% of tree cover| height of the trees and of the layer) was affected by the fire regime| especially in pure pine stands. Fire regime also influenced the litter layer and litter depth decreased with an increase in the opening of the stand that could be due to fire. These results show that fire risk is greater in the oldest stands (long interval since the last fire). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10365,2009,3,4,Fujitsu Group's Activities for Global Warming Countermeasures,In the Kyoto Protocol| Japan is committed to reducing its average emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) between 2008 and 2012 by 6% of Its 1990 emission level. However| In fiscal 2005| Japan's GHG emissions actually increased by 7.8% versus the 1990 level. In Japan| where Industry is responsible for about 65% of the national CO(2) emissions related to energy consumption| each sector has organized a voluntary action plan to promote activities to achieve the mandatory goal set by the Japanese government. Also in the electronics and IT sectors| there is a need for further reinforcement of those activities in association with the enhancement of the current voluntary action plan. In fiscal 2007| the Fujitsu Group started its Environmental Protection Program (Stage V) to comply with increasingly demanding laws and regulations. In this program| the Fujitsu Group announced Its target to reduce absolute CO(2) emissions related to energy consumption as its continued efforts from Stage IV| within the framework of its activities for global warming countermeasures. Fujitsu's activities in the areas of manufacturing processes and office division| areas which the Group considers to still be the subject for future challenges| are Introduced in this paper in addition to the Group's conventional activities. 9403,2009,2,3,Future changes in the Mediterranean water budget projected by an ensemble of regional climate models,The Mediterranean basin is a region characterized by its vulnerability to changes in the water cycle. Hence| the impact of global warming on the water resources in the Mediterranean zone is one of the major concerns for the scientific community. The future climate projections used to elaborate the IPCC report of 2007 show great alterations in the evaporation and precipitation over the Mediterranean Sea at the end of 21st century. In this work we investigate the changes in the Mediterranean Sea water budget by using SRES-A1B scenario experiments performed with high resolution (25 km) regional climate models (RCMs). The RCMs provide good estimates of the water budget components| in particular with a significant improvement of the runoff and Black Sea discharge terms compared to the coarser resolution general circulation models (GCMs) used in the last Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) report. As for the case of GCMs| the RCMs show that the Mediterranean water budget is likely to be significantly altered at the end of 21st century. The response of the hydrological variables to global warming starts to be statistically significant from 2050| though some alterations are already observed before 2050. The RCMs predict an increase of evaporation| and a decrease of precipitation| and river and Black Sea discharge| yielding to a large increase of the Mediterranean fresh water deficit. The freshwater deficit for the period 2070-2099 related to 1950-1999 presents a mean increase of +40% for both RCMs and GCMs. Citation: Sanchez-Gomez| E.| S. Somot| and A. Mariotti (2009)| Future changes in the Mediterranean water budget projected by an ensemble of regional climate models| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L21401| doi: 10.1029/2009GL040120. 10257,2009,3,3,Future environmental impacts of room air-conditioners in Europe,The potential environmental impacts of room air-conditioners in Europe are described| based on an analysis for the European Commission in support of the Energy-using Products Directive. About half the current cooling need of buildings in Europe is met by room air-conditioners - the rest being met by central systems. The likely market growth for such products over the next 25 years is assessed along with the consequent environmental impacts and the scope for reducing the global warming impacts by the use of 'best available' or 'least life cycle-cost' technologies. The analysis concludes that continuing growth of the room air-conditioners is likely over several decades| with resultant increases in environmental impacts if product design and use remain unchanged. However| Japanese experience shows that the energy-related environmental impacts could be considerably reduced without going beyond proven technology. Life cycle costing analysis suggests that the economically optimum performance lies between current European and current Japanese practice. Many room air-conditioners also provide carbon-efficient heating which can mitigate the impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. 978,2009,2,4,Future options in landscape ecology: development and research,The aim of this brief overview is to highlight some new and promising research fields in landscape ecology| which is essentially an interdisciplinary field of study. We also analyse the development of some classical branches of landscape ecology regarding pattern and process relationships at broad spatial and temporal scales| such as landscape metrics| the influence of anthropogenic factors and global climate change on landscape development| the fragmentation of ecosystems and disturbances of populations| and material and energy cycling in and between ecosystems. 9589,2009,2,3,Future pattern of Asian drought under global warming scenario,This study investigates the effect of global warming on drought patterns over Asia at the end of the twenty-first century by a multi-model ensemble method based on daily precipitation data of 15 coupled climate models simulations under SRES A1B scenario| thereby assessing the consistency of responses among different models. The projected precipitation climatology was translated into the change in drought climatology using the effective drought index. The results of the models were consistent in that they project an increase in the mean and the standard deviation of precipitation over most of Asia| and the increase was considerably greater in higher latitude areas. Therefore| it is expected that in future| drought over most of Asia will occur less frequently with weaker intensity and shorter duration than those prevalent currently. However| two special regions were detected. One was the Asian monsoon regions (AMRs: South Asia and East Asia)| which showed a greater increase in the standard deviation of precipitation than the mean precipitation| with an amplified seasonal precipitation cycle. As a result| part of the AMRs exhibited slight increases in drought properties such as frequency and intensity. The other region was West Asia. The region showed decreased mean precipitation| especially in its northern part (Syria and its vicinity)| and more frequent droughts were projected for this region with enhanced drought intensity and lengthened drought duration. The worsening trends in drought patterns over both regions were more significant in extreme drought| the likelihood of which is relatively higher in summer in West Asia and from spring to summer in the AMRs. 965,2009,2,3,Future trends and variability of the hydrological cycle in different IPCC SRES emission scenarios - a case study for the Baltic Sea region,Global climate change is also affecting the Baltic Sea and its surrounding areas. Therefore| it is of great importance to understand decadal variability and future trends as they are projected by global and regional climate change simulations. In this paper| trends and variability of hydro-meteorological quantities are investigated in simulation results for the period 1900 to 2100. Special attention is paid to the differences in the climate change signals which are simulated within three individual simulations of one IPCC SIRES scenario (here: three realisations of A1B) as compared with those in three simulations of different IPCC SIRES scenarios (one realisation each for A2| A I B and B 1). In addition results from a validation run for 1958 to 2002 which are compared with observations| show the capability of the regional model to simulate today's climate. From the 200-year simulations it can be concluded that in all of them the differences in the hydro-meteorological quantities are of similar order| despite of significant differences in temperature trends. The relation between an increase in temperature and an intensification of the hydrological cycle is also analysed. This study shows that the differences in the IPCC SIRES emission scenarios lead to significantly different temperature developments until the end of this century| but they do not stimulate significant differences in the developments of the hydrological cycles. At present this behaviour cannot be explained and needs further investigations. 9748,2009,2,4,Gas hydrates: entrance to a methane age or climate threat?,Methane hydrates| ice-like compounds in which methane is held in crystalline cages formed by water molecules| are widespread in areas of permafrost such as the Arctic and in sediments on the continental margins. They are a potentially vast fossil fuel energy source but| at the same time| could be destabilized by changing pressure-temperature conditions due to climate change| potentially leading to strong positive carbon-climate feedbacks. To enhance our understanding of both the vulnerability of and the opportunity provided by methane hydrates| it is necessary (i) to conduct basic research that improves the highly uncertain estimates of hydrate occurrences and their response to changing environmental conditions| and (ii) to integrate the agendas of energy security and climate change which can provide an opportunity for methane hydrates-in particular if combined with carbon capture and storage-to be used as a 'bridge fuel' between carbon-intensive fossil energies and zero-emission energies. Taken one step further| exploitation of dissociating methane hydrates could even mitigate against escape of methane to the atmosphere. Despite these opportunities| so far| methane hydrates have been largely absent from energy and climate discussions| including global hydrocarbon assessments and the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1012,2009,2,4,Genetic variation in responses to a settlement cue and elevated temperature in the reef-building coral Acropora millepora,Reef-building corals are threatened by increasing sea surface temperatures resulting from global climate change. Whether corals can adapt to increasing temperatures over the course of generations will depend in part on heritable variation in thermal physiology and dispersal potential| which may serve as the raw material for natural selection. To investigate whether such variation exists in coral populations| and build a framework for identifying the coral-specific genetic factors involved| we performed controlled crosses between 3 genetically distinct colonies of the branching coral Acropora millepora. We compared the families of larvae (which in this species naturally lack symbionts) for several physiological traits| and observed between-family differences in nearly every case. Using larvae cultured at standard and elevated temperatures| we measured the developmental decrease in protein content and the expression of candidate heat response genes. We used an in vivo assay for mitochondrial enzyme activity to evaluate the metabolic response to temperature changes in individual larvae. We also compared the responsiveness of larvae from different families to a natural settlement cue to gain insights into long-range dispersal potential. Partitioning the components of total phenotypic variance confirmed the existence of additive genetic effects for settlement rates and beta gamma-crystallin expression| while variance in mitochondrial Q(10) and the expression of actin and Hsp16 were driven by non-additive effects. The phenotypic variance observed among the small number of families analyzed here suggests the existence of considerable heritable variation in natural coral populations| which supports the possibility of effective adaptive responses to climate change. 10039,2009,3,3,Geochemical detection of carbon dioxide in dilute aquifers,Background: Carbon storage in deep saline reservoirs has the potential to lower the amount of CO(2) emitted to the atmosphere and to mitigate global warming. Leakage back to the atmosphere through abandoned wells and along faults would reduce the efficiency of carbon storage| possibly leading to health and ecological hazards at the ground surface| and possibly impacting water quality of near-surface dilute aquifers. We use static equilibrium and reactive transport simulations to test the hypothesis that perturbations in water chemistry associated with a CO(2) gas leak into dilute groundwater are important measures for the potential release of CO(2) to the atmosphere. Simulation parameters are constrained by groundwater chemistry| flow| and lithology from the High Plains aquifer. The High Plains aquifer is used to represent a typical sedimentary aquifer overlying a deep CO(2) storage reservoir. Specifically| we address the relationships between CO(2) flux| groundwater flow| detection time and distance. The CO(2) flux ranges from 10(3) to 2 x 10(6) t/yr (0.63 to 1250 t/m(2)/yr) to assess chemical perturbations resulting from relatively small leaks that may compromise long-term storage| water quality| and surface ecology| and larger leaks characteristic of short-term well failure. Results: For the scenarios we studied| our simulations show pH and carbonate chemistry are good indicators for leakage of stored CO(2) into an overlying aquifer because elevated CO(2) yields a more acid pH than the ambient groundwater. CO(2) leakage into a dilute groundwater creates a slightly acid plume that can be detected at some distance from the leak source due to groundwater flow and CO(2) buoyancy. pH breakthrough curves demonstrate that CO(2) leaks can be easily detected for CO(2) flux >= 10(4) t/yr within a 15-month time period at a monitoring well screened within a permeable layer 500 m downstream from the vertical gas trace. At lower flux rates| the CO(2) dissolves in the aqueous phase in the lower most permeable unit and does not reach the monitoring well. Sustained pumping in a developed aquifer mixes the CO(2)-affected water with the ambient water and enhances pH signal for small leaks (10(3) t/yr) and reduces pH signal for larger leaks (>= 10(4) t/yr). Conclusion: The ability to detect CO(2) leakage from a storage reservoir to overlying dilute groundwater is dependent on CO(2) solubility| leak flux| CO(2) buoyancy| and groundwater flow. Our simulations show that the most likely places to detect CO(2) are at the base of the confining layer near the water table where CO(2) gas accumulates and is transported laterally in all directions| and downstream of the vertical gas trace where groundwater flow is great enough to transport dissolved CO(2) laterally. Our simulations show that CO(2) may not rise high enough in the aquifer to be detected because aqueous solubility and lateral groundwater transport within the lower aquifer unit exceeds gas pressure build-up and buoyancy needed to drive the CO(2) gas upwards. 9519,2009,3,3,Geoengineering by cloud seeding: influence on sea ice and climate system,General circulation model computations using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model indicate that increasing cloud reflectivity by seeding maritime boundary layer clouds with particles made from seawater may compensate for some of the effects on climate of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The chosen seeding strategy (one of many possible scenarios) can restore global averages of temperature| precipitation and sea ice to present day values| but not simultaneously. The response varies nonlinearly with the extent of seeding| and geoengineering generates local changes to important climatic features. The global tradeoffs of restoring ice cover| and cooling the planet| must be assessed alongside the local changes to climate features. 10144,2009,3,2,Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure,We use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity to investigate scenarios of stratospheric sulfur injections as a measure to compensate for CO(2)-induced global warming. The baseline scenario includes the burning of 5|000 GtC of fossil fuels. A full compensation of CO(2)-induced warming requires a load of about 13 MtS in the stratosphere at the peak of atmospheric CO(2) concentration. Keeping global warming below 2A degrees C reduces this load to 9 MtS. Compensation of CO(2) forcing by stratospheric aerosols leads to a global reduction in precipitation| warmer winters in the high northern latitudes and cooler summers over northern hemisphere landmasses. The average surface ocean pH decreases by 0.7| reducing the calcifying ability of marine organisms. Because of the millennial persistence of the fossil fuel CO(2) in the atmosphere| high levels of stratospheric aerosol loading would have to continue for thousands of years until CO(2) was removed from the atmosphere. A termination of stratospheric aerosol loading results in abrupt global warming of up to 5A degrees C within several decades| a vulnerability of the Earth system to technological failure. 9997,2009,3,3,Geographical variation in carbon dioxide fluxes from soils in agro-ecosystems and its implications for life-cycle assessment,Exchange of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from soils can contribute significantly to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Due to variations in soil type| climatic conditions and land management practices| exchange of CO(2) can differ markedly in different geographical locations. The food industry is developing carbon footprints for their products necessitating integration of CO(2) exchange from soils with other CO(2) emissions along the food chain. It may be advantageous to grow certain crops in different geographical locations to minimize CO(2) emissions from the soil| and this may provide potential to offset other emissions in the food chain| such as transport. Values are derived for the C balance of soils growing horticultural crops in the UK| Spain and Uganda. Net ecosystem production (NEP) is firstly calculated from the difference in net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic soil respiration (R(h)). Both NPP and R(h) were estimated from intensive direct field measurements. Secondly| net biome production (NBP) is calculated by subtracting the crop biomass from NEP to give an indication of C balance. The importance of soil exchange is discussed in the light of recent discussions on carbon footprints and within the context of food life-cycle assessment (LCA). The amount of crop relative to the biomass and the R(h) prevailing in the different countries were the dominant factors influencing the magnitude of NEP and NBP. The majority of the biomass for lettuce Lactuca sativa and vining peas Pisum sativum| was removed from the field as crop; therefore| NEP and NBP were mainly negative. This was amplified for lettuces grown in Uganda (-16.5 and -17 t C ha(-1) year(-1) compared to UK and Spain -4.8 to 7.4 and -5.1 to 6.3 t C ha(-1) year(-1) for NEP and NBP| respectively) where the climate elevated R(h). Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrates the importance of soil emissions in the overall life cycle of vegetables. Variability in such emissions suggests that assigning a single value to food carbon footprints may not be adequate| even within a country. Locations with high heterotrophic soil respiration| such as Spain and Uganda (21.9 and 21.6 t C ha(-1) year(-1)| respectively)| could mitigate the negative effects of climate on the C costs of crop production by growth of crops with greater returns of residue to the soil. This would minimize net CO(2) emissions from these agricultural ecosystems. 4,2009,4,4,Georeferencing specimens by combining digitized maps with SRTM digital elevation data and satellite images: a Bornean case study,For numerous scientific purposes collection records need to be georeferenced. Although the geographic coordinates of many of the collection localities are available in gazetteers| especially collections from tropical areas of the world are still not georeferenced. In an attempt to georeference these localities for Indonesian Borneo we used digitized old maps which were georegistered with SRTM digital elevation data| and Landsat 7- and JERS-1 SAR radar satellite images. This enabled us to georeference 2 577 additional collections from Indonesian Borneo| belonging to 1 744 taxa| which were collected at 134 previously not georeferenced localities. This applied methodology enables researchers to georeference their historical collections for biodiversity| biogeographical| and global climate change impact studies. 9940,2009,2,4,GIS-based risk assessment of grassland fire disaster in western Jilin province| China,Grassland fire disasters have occurred frequently and adversely affected livestock agriculture and social-economic development greatly in the grassland regions of Jilin province| China. Moreover| both the frequency of grassland fire and loss from them are considered to be increasing with the global warming and economic development. This study presents a methodology for risk analysis and assessment of grassland fire disaster| taking western Jilin province as a case study area based on geographic information system (GIS). The composite grassland fire disaster risk index (GFDRI) combined the hazard of grassland fire| the exposure of the region| the vulnerability and emergency response and recovery capability for grassland fire disaster of the region were developed to assess and compare risk of grassland fire disaster in different counties in western Jilin province| China using the natural disaster risk index method (NDRIM)| analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and weighted comprehensive method (WCM). Then| the risk degree of grassland fire disaster was assessed and regionalized in the western Jilin province| China based on GFDRI by using GIS. It is shown that the most places of western Jilin province were in mediate risk. Zhenlai| Tongyu were in heavy risk. Taobei| Ningjiang| Fuyu were in light risk. The information obtained from interviewing the district official committees in relation to result compiled was statistically evaluated. The GFDRI was developed to be an easily understandable tool that can be used to assess and compare the relative risk of grassland fire disaster in different counties in t western Jilin province| China| and to compare the different relative contributions of various factors| e.g.| frequency of grassland fire and quality of emergency evacuation plan. The GFDRI is specifically intend to support local and national government agencies of grassland fire disaster management as they (1) make resource allocation decisions; (2) make high-level planning decisions; and (3) raise public awareness of grassland fire disaster risk| its causes| and ways to manage it. 9809,2009,2,4,Glacial long period seismic events at Katla volcano| Iceland,Repeating long-period (lp) earthquakes are commonly observed in volcanic regions worldwide. They are usually explained in terms of a volcanic source effect or anomalous propagation through the volcano. Recently| large lp events have also been associated with the motion of massive ice streams. Our joint analysis of climatic and new seismic data shows that small lp events observed at Katla volcano| Iceland| are in fact related to ice movement in a steep outlet glacier and not| as previously thought| to volcanic intrusive activity. The over 13000 lp events recorded since 2000 are consistent in character and magnitude with seasonal changes of the glacier. As the current global warming trend could cause similar earthquake sequences at other glacier covered volcanoes| identifying them as glacial rather than eruption precursors is vital. Citation: Jonsdottir| K.| R. Roberts| V. Pohjola| B. Lund| Z. H. Shomali| A. Tryggvason| and R. Boovarsson (2009)| Glacial long period seismic events at Katla volcano| Iceland| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L11402| doi: 10.1029/2009GL038234. 829,2009,5,4,Global atmospheric As and Bi contamination preserved in 3000 year old Arctic ice,Despite its growing environmental significance| there are no detailed historical records of atmospheric As deposition for the Northern Hemisphere. Having overcome the severe analytical challenges in measuring As in polar ice| and using an Arctic ice core representing similar to 16 ka of snow accumulation| we present a complete record of atmospheric As deposition for this period which reveals significant contamination beginning 3000 years ago. While Pb enrichments unequivocally increased threefold above natural background levels during Greek/Phoenician| Roman| and Medieval periods| As is elevated by a factor of 5. Previous studies showed that these periods are not only enriched in Pb but also Sb: here we show significant contamination not only by As but also Bi| Cu| and Zn. The Pb isotope data reveal declines in the ratio (206)Pb/(207)Pb which reflects the introduction Pb-bearing aerosols from smelting of lead ores| but the metallurgy of copper ores must also have played a role. Taken together| these findings demonstrate a deeper| broader environmental significance of sulphide ore processing in antiquity| defining the origins of global atmospheric contamination for a suite of related elements and providing a new perspective on the start of the Anthropocene. In addition| the data indicate that by far the greatest As concentrations in the ice core are recorded during the Younger Dryas cold climate event centered around 12 ka B. P.| demonstrating the strong link between global climate change and the atmospheric cycling of trace elements. 10095,2009,2,2,Global change and carnivore body size: data are stasis,Global warming and other anthropogenic changes to the environment affect many aspects of biology and have often been invoked as causing body size changes in vertebrates. Here we examine a diverse set of carnivore populations in search of patterns in body size change that could reflect global warming (in accord with Bergmann's rule). Global. We used > 4400 specimens representing 22 carnivore species in 52 populations collected over the last few decades to examine whether size changed with collection date when geography and sex are accounted for. We then examined several factors related to global warming| body mass| diet| and the attributes of the different datasets| to see whether they affect the standardized slope (beta) of the size versus time regression. Six of 52 populations we examined show a significant effect of year of collection on body size at the 0.05 probability level. The response of size to global warming does not reflect spatial patterns of size variation| nor do diet or body mass affect tendency of populations to change in body size. Size changes are no more pronounced in populations that have been sampled more recently. However| change| where it occurs| is rapid. There may be a tendency in the literature to report only cases where recent changes are prevalent. Although in our data only a minority of populations show body size changes| we may see changes accelerating in the future in response to more drastic climatic changes and other anthropogenic changes. 750,2009,2,4,Global climate change and litter decomposition: more frequent fire slows decomposition and increases the functional importance of invertebrates,Of the many mechanisms by which global climate change may alter ecosystem processes perhaps the least known and insidious is altered disturbance regimes. We used a field-based experiment to examine the climate change scenario of more frequent fires with altered invertebrate assemblages on the decomposition of Eucalyptus leaves. Our design comprised three fire regimes [long-term fire exclusion (FE)| long-term frequent burning (FB) and FE altered to FB (FEFB)] and two litter bag mesh sizes (8.0 and 0.2 mm) that either permitted or denied access to the leaf litter by most invertebrates. We found a significant interaction effect between fire regime and mesh size in losses of litter mass and net carbon (C). Compared with the regime of FE| with more frequent burning (FB and FEFB) the pace of decomposition was slowed by 41% (when access to litter by most invertebrates is not impeded). For the regime of FE| denying access to leaf litter by most invertebrates did not alter the pace of decomposition. Conversely| under regimes of frequently burning| restricting access to the litter by most invertebrates altered the pace of decomposition by 46%. Similar results were found for net C. For net losses of nitrogen (N)| no interaction effects between fire regime and mesh size were detected| although both main effects were significant. Our results show that by modifying disturbance regimes such as fire frequency| global climate change has the potential to modify the mechanism by which ecosystems function. With more FB| decomposition is driven not only by fire regime induced changes in substrate quality and/or physiochemical conditions but through the interaction of disturbance regime with animal assemblages mediating ecosystem processes. 782,2009,3,2,Global Climate Change and the Mitigation Challenge,Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases| especially carbon dioxide (CO(2))| have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations| very likely the primary cause of the 0.8 degrees C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century| large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected| with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO(2) emissions| a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options| and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5 degrees C in 2100| the recent annual 3% CO(2) emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore| the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate| especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research| development| demonstration| and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required. 924,2009,2,4,Global Climate Change and Wound Care: Case Study of an Off-season Vibrio alginolyticus Infection in a Healthy Man,Vibrio alginolyticus is a halophilic Gram-negative bacterium normally present in seawater. Vibrios are not capable of cutaneous invasion through intact skin and their isolation from extraintestinal sites is uncommon. However| interruptions in skin integrity (cuts or abrasions) can allow these bacteria to cause complicated skin and soft tissues infections. This case study describes the clinical assessment and management of a nonhealing traumatic wound| sustained in a coastal area during the winter months| in a healthy 70-year-old man. Culture results were positive for V alginolyticus. Appropriate antibiotic treatment and topical wound care successfully resolved the infection. V alginolyticus infections are usually benign; respond well to treatment| even with local therapy only; and tend to result from contact with warm ocean water. The clinical characteristics of the wound prompted a suspicion of a Vibrio infection even though the wound was sustained in the winter time and the patient did not have direct contact with ocean water. Although other case studies of Vibrio infections in the absence of direct contact with ocean water have been published| increased ocean temperatures due to global climate changes may explain the out-of-season infection in this patient. Clinicians should monitor the progression of wound healing and be prepared to modify treatment based on individual circumstances| especially in the case of unusual wound presentation| nonhealing| or a progressing wound infection. 1016,2009,2,3,Global climate change: A cause of concern,Climate change has been recognized as the foremost environmental problem of the twenty-first century and has become a subject of considerable debate. It is predicted to lead to adverse| irreversible impacts oil earth and the ecosystem as a whole. Although it is difficult to connect specific weather events to global warming| increases in global temperatures have been predicted to cause broader changes| including glacial retreat| arctic shrinkage| and worldwide sea level rise. Climate change has been implicated in mass mortalities of mail)| aquatic species| including plants. fish| corals| and mammals. Climate change is an emerging threat to global public health and is predicted to affect human health in many ways including heat stress (stroke)| air pollution| food scarcity| spread of infectious diseases and intensity of disease outbreaks. Thus| 'Global Climate Change' has been a major issue that has created global concern and this has been highlighted by awarding the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for this cause| on the Intergovernmental Panel oil Climatic Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (M) Gore Jr.| the former American Vice-President| jointly. The present paper focuses on different aspects. of 'global climate change'; the causes| predicted impacts. probable steps for mitigation and the need for greater understanding of climate change and bringing global awareness on the issue. 1017,2009,4,3,Global Climate Change: The Empirical Study of Sensitivity Model in China's Sustainable Development,This study employs logical| scientific understanding and prediction of a Sensitivity Model which is an integer tool in the assessment of climate change for China. It simulated a smooth environmental sustainable transition for the next ten years| given the 11 simulated variables. The positive coefficient for GDP growth variable suggests that estimated emissions initially rise with GDP growth| and eventually fall; the impact of population on emissions has been more pronounced in lower rather than in higher income ranges| contradicting Environmental Kuznet Curve. The role of energy efficiency on emissions has been the greatest when CO(2) emission is at its peak. 737,2009,4,4,Global CO(2)-consumption by chemical weathering: What is the contribution of highly active weathering regions?,CO(2)-consumption by chemical weathering of silicates and resulting silicate/carbonate weathering ratios influences long-term climate changes. However| little is known of the spatial extension of highly active weathering regions and their proportion of global CO(2)-consumption. As those regions may be of significant importance for global climate change| global CO(2)-consumption is calculated here at high resolution| to adequately represent them. In previous studies global CO(2)-consumption is estimated using two different approaches: i) a reverse approach based on hydrochemical fluxes from large rivers and ii) a forward approach applying spatially explicit a function for CO(2)-consumption. The first approach results in an estimate without providing a spatial resolution for highly active regions and the second approach applied six lithological classes while including three sediment classes (shale| sandstone and carbonate rock) based at a 1 degrees or 2 degrees grid resolution. It remained uncertain| if the applied lithological classification schemes represent adequately CO(2)-consumption from sediments on a global scale. This is due to the large variability of sediment properties| their diagenetic history and the contribution from carbonates apparent in silicate dominated lithological classes. To address these issues| a CO(2)-consumption model| trained at high-resolution data| is applied here to a global vector based lithological map with 15 lithological classes. The calibration data were obtained from areas representing a wide range of weathering rates. Resulting global CO(2)-consumption by chemical weathering is similar to earlier estimates (237 Mt C a(-1)) but the proportion of silicate weathering is 63%. and thus larger than previous estimates (49 to 60%). The application of the enhanced lithological classification scheme reveals that it is important to distinguish among the various types of sedimentary rocks and their diagenetic history to evaluate the spatial distribution of rock weathering. Results highlight the role of hotspots (> 10 times global average weathering rates) and hyperactive areas (5 to 10 times global average rates). Only 9% of the global exorheic area is responsible for about 50% of CO(2)-consumption by chemical weathering (or if hotspots and hyperactive areas are considered: 3.4% of exorheic surface area corresponds to 28% of global CO(2)-consumption). The contribution of endorheic areas to the global CO(2)-consumption is with 3.7 Mt C a(-1) only minor. A significant impact on the global CO(2)-consumption rate can be expected if identified highly active areas are affected by changes in the overall spatial patterns of the hydrological cycle due to ongoing global climate change. Specifically if comparing the Last Glacial Maximum with present conditions it is probable that also the global carbon cycle has been affected by those changes. It is expected that results will contribute to improve global carbon and global circulation models. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9559,2009,3,4,GLOBAL DEPLOYMENT OF MITSUBISHI APWR| A GEN-III plus SOLUTION TO WORLD-WIDE NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE,We at Mitsubishi have lined up Gen-III+ solutions for a wide variety of global customers: ATMEAI of the 1100MWe class and an APWR with the largest capacity of 1700MWe. In this paper| we would like to introduce the APWR. With an increased requirement for nuclear power generation as an effective countermeasure against global warming| we have established the APWR plant| a large-capacity Mitsubishi standard reactor combining our accumulated experience and technology as an integrated PWR plant supplier. The APWR plant has achieved high reliability| safety and enhanced economy based oil a technology that has been developed with the Support of the government and utilities through improvement and standardization programs of light water reactors. Currently| Tsuruga Units 3 and 4| the first two APWRs| are undergoing licensing| while we are making efforts to obtain the standard design certification (DC) of US-APWR and preparing for the European Utility Requirements (EUR) compliance assessment of EU-APWR. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries| Ltd. (MHI) positions the APWR as I core technology that will contribute to the prevention of global warming and meet worldwide requirements. 10350,2009,4,4,Global energy accumulation and net heat emission,The increase in the global air temperature is an inadequate measure of global warming| which should rather be considered in terms of energy. The ongoing global warming means that heat has been accumulating since 1880 in the air| ground and water. Before explaining this warming by external heat sources| the net heat emissions on Earth must be considered. Such emissions from| e. g.| the global use of fossil fuels and nuclear power| must contribute to global warming. The aim of this study is to compare globally accumulated and emitted heat. The heat accumulated in the air corresponds to 6.6% of global warming| while the remaining heat is stored in the ground (31.5%)| melting of ice (33.4%) and sea water (28.5%). It was found that the net heat emissions from 1880-2000 correspond to 74% of the accumulated heat| i.e.| global warming| during the same period. The missing heat (26%) must have other causes| e. g.| the greenhouse effect| the natural variations in the climate and/or the underestimation of net heat emissions. Most measures that have already been taken to combat global warming are also beneficial for the current explanation| though nuclear power is not a solution to (but part of) the problem. 9985,2009,3,2,Global estimations of the inventory and mitigation potential of methane emissions from rice cultivation conducted using the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines,The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regularly publishes guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and methane emission (CH(4)) from rice paddies has been an important component of these guidelines. While there have been many estimates of global CH(4) emissions from rice fields| none of them have been obtained using the IPCC guidelines. Therefore| we used the Tier 1 method described in the 2006 IPCC guidelines to estimate the global CH(4) emissions from rice fields. To accomplish this| we used country-specific statistical data regarding rice harvest areas and expert estimates of relevant agricultural activities. The estimated global emission for 2000 was 25.6 Tg a(-1)| which is at the lower end of earlier estimates and close to the total emission summarized by individual national communications. Monte Carlo simulation revealed a 95% uncertainty range of 14.8-41.7 Tg a(-1); however| the estimation uncertainty was found to depend on the reliability of the information available regarding the amount of organic amendments and the area of rice fields that were under continuous flooding. We estimated that if all of the continuously flooded rice fields were drained at least once during the growing season| the CH(4) emissions would be reduced by 4.1 Tg a(-1). Furthermore| we estimated that applying rice straw off season wherever and whenever possible would result in a further reduction in emissions of 4.1 Tg a(-1) globally. Finally| if both of these mitigation options were adopted| the global CH(4) emission from rice paddies could be reduced by 7.6 Tg a(-1). Although draining continuously flooded rice fields may lead to an increase in nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emission| the global warming potential resulting from this increase is negligible when compared to the reduction in global warming potential that would result from the CH(4) reduction associated with draining the fields. 10155,2009,5,4,Global greenhouse to icehouse and back again: The origin and future of the Boreal Forest biome,The Boreal Forest biome (Taiga)| dominated by evergreen and deciduous coniferous trees (Pinaceae)| is circumpolar in its present distribution| covering a significant part of the total land area of the Northern Hemisphere and representing perhaps a third of the total forest area of the planet. Nothing comparable to this extant biome existed during the global "greenhouse" interval of the Late Mesozoic and Paleogene. Latitudinal temperature gradients should have confined boreal taxa to extremely high latitudes| but evergreen taxa do not appear to have been competitive in the lowlands of the high arctic| where the vegetation consisted of a unique circumpolar forest dominated by deciduous conifers and broad-leaved taxa. Probable sources for the pinaceous taxa that now characterize boreal latitudes were the Paleogene evergreen montane coniferous forests of the western North American Cordillera. Taphonomic factors limit the fossil record for such forests| but assemblages such as the Eocene Thunder Mountain (Idaho) and Bull Run (Nevada) floras were dominated by evergreen and deciduous Pinaceae that dominate extant montane| subalpine| and Boreal Forest associations. In response to post-Eocene global cooling| such forests presumably would have migrated to lower elevations| eventually spreading across high-latitude North America| subsequently reaching Eurasia via the Beringian corridor. This high-diversity coniferous forest was differentially winnowed and modified during subsequent migration southward in both the New and Old World. Despite its extensive geographic distribution| the Boreal Forest may be the youngest of the major forest biomes. If global warming ultimately results in a significant redistribution of terrestrial vegetation| the history of the Boreal Forest may well be reversed. Northward migration of the Boreal Forest may be characterized by loss of taxa and extensive community reorganization as individual taxa are pushed to their limits with respect to rates of migration and biotic stress takes its toll in the form of insect predation and disease. If evergreen taxa are unable to survive at low elevations at high polar latitudes| such conifers might once again become restricted to montane refugia and the lowlands of the high arctic would be populated by a larch-dominated deciduous conifer forest of low diversity and limited geographic extent. Given the biogeographic significance of the Boreal Forest biome| such a consequence would represent a profound ecological transformation. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9875,2009,2,4,Global pattern of temperature sensitivity of soil heterotrophic respiration (Q(10)) and its implications for carbon-climate feedback,Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Q(10)) is an important parameter in modeling effects of global warming on ecosystem carbon release. Experimental studies of soil respiration have ubiquitously indicated that Q(10) has high spatial heterogeneity. However| most biogeochemical models still use a globally constant Q(10) in projecting future climate change| partly because no spatial pattern of Q(10) values has been derived. In this study| we conducted an inverse analysis to retrieve a global pattern of spatially heterogeneous Q(10) values by assimilating data of soil organic carbon into a process-based terrestrial carbon model (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model) at spatial resolution of 1 degrees by 1 degrees. The estimated Q(10) values were| in turn| incorporated into soil respiration models to evaluate their impacts on global respiratory carbon release from soil (i.e.| total soil respiration is equal to microbial and root respiration) and from microbial decomposition (i.e.| heterotrophic respiration). Our results show that the optimized Q(10) values are spatially heterogeneous and vary with environmental factors. In general| Q(10) value tends to be high in the high-latitudinal regions. The mean Q(10) values for different biomes range from 1.43 to 2.03| with the highest value in tundra and the lowest value in deserts. When spatially heterogeneous Q(10) values were incorporated into global soil respiration models| simulated soil respiration has a feedback intensity of 3.21 Pg C degrees C(-1) to climate warming| which is approximately 40% higher than that with a globally invariant Q(10) value. The modeled heterotrophic respiration has a feedback intensity of 2.26 Pg C degrees C(-1)| about 25% higher than that derived from a globally invariant Q(10) value. Overall| the feedback intensity of soil carbon release to climate warming depends not only on the magnitude of a global mean of Q(10) values but also their spatial variability. 9825,2009,4,4,Global Population Dynamics and Hot Spots of Response to Climate Change,Understanding how biotic and abiotic factors influence the abundance and distribution of organisms has become more important with the growing awareness of the ecological consequences of climate change. In this article| we outline an approach that complements bioclimatic envelope modeling in quantifying the effects of climate change at the species level. The global population dynamics approach| which relies on distribution-wide| data-driven analyses of dynamics| goes beyond quantifying biotic interactions in population dynamics to identify hot spots of response to climate change. Such hot spots highlight populations or locations within species' distributions that are particularly sensitive to climate change| and identification of them should focus conservation and management efforts. An important result of the analyses highlighted here is pronounced variation at the species level in the strength and direction of population responses to warming. Although this variation complicates species-level predictions of responses to climate change| the global population dynamics approach may improve our understanding of the complex implications of climate change for species persistence or extinction. 9982,2009,2,4,Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire,Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire| a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity| however| is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire| we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed| current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn| climate conditions| human influence| and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km| over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns| highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions| our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire| we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations| due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance| our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly| generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire| suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. 10062,2009,2,4,Global scale evaluation of coastal fresh groundwater resources,This paper presents a simplified approach to assess the effects of global warming on global coastal groundwater resources over the next century based on the smallest but necessary number of elements such as rainfall| temperature| hydraulic conductivity of the aquifers| and population changes regarding the consumption of groundwater. The positive aspect in this approach is that there is availability of the above elements in the majority of the planet. Methodology includes a sharp interface concept model and simplified estimation of groundwater recharge using limited climate data. The evaluation shows that the future climate changes would decrease fresh groundwater resources in Central American| South American| South African and Australian regions whereas most of the areas in Asia| except South-East Asia. Combinations of fresh groundwater loss and global population are considered to state the vulnerability of future fresh groundwater supply. Vulnerability assessment shows that South Asia| Central America| North Africa and the Sahara| South Africa and the Middle East countries are highly vulnerable whereas| Northern Europe| Western part of South America| New Zealand and Japan are less vulnerable with respect to future fresh groundwater supply. Further| this paper highlights the necessity Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) practices in these vulnerable coastal regions to ensure the sustainable development in coastal regions. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9287,2009,2,3,Global sea level linked to global temperature,We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880-2000| and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level| the correlation is >0.99| explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report| the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990-2100. 9418,2009,2,4,Global spread of epidemic dengue: the influence of environmental change,Dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever is the most important vector-borne viral disease globally| with over half of the world's population living in areas at risk of infection. Frequent and cyclical epidemics are reported throughout the tropical world| with regular importation of the virus via viremic travelers into both endemic and nonendemic countries. These events coincide with the recently observed global warming that is associated with climate change. Whether these events are coincidental is examined in this article. The history of dengue emergence is traced to determine the major drivers responsible for the spread of both the viruses and mosquito vectors to new geographic regions. We conclude that demographic- and anthropogenic-driven environmental changes| combined with globalization and inefficient public health measures rather than climate change| are the principal driving forces for the re-emergence and spread of epidemic dengue in the past 40 years. These trends are likely to continue given the global trends projected by the United Nations. 9457,2009,2,4,Global warming and alternative causes of decline in arctic-alpine and boreal-montane lichens in North-Western Central Europe,Lichens are thought to be sensitive indicators of global warming| as the spread of several thermophilous epiphytes in north-western Central Europe has been attributed to late 20th century warming. In the present paper| the potential contribution of late 20th century warming to the decline of arctic-alpine and boreal-montane lichen species is analyzed. Relevant ecological groups of lichens include terricolous heathland species| saxicolous species of exposed rock outcrops and boulder fields as well as epiphytes of mountain forests. These three groups of lichens experienced significant declines before the onset of late 20th century warming in the 1970s. These declines can be attributed to the abandonment of traditional land use systems in the case of the heathland lichens| increased recreational use of the exposed summits usually inhabited by cold-tolerant saxicolous lichens| and to high atmospheric SO(2) levels in the mid-20th century| but are probably not directly connected to global warming. 9423,2009,2,4,Global warming and Australian public health: reasons to be concerned,Studies in global warming and climate change indicate that human populations will be deleteriously affected in the future. Studies forecast that Australia will experience increasing heat waves and droughts. Heat stress caused by frequent heat waves will have a marked effect on older Australians due to physiological and pharmacological factors. In this paper we present an overview of some of the foreseeable issues which older Australians will face from a public health perspective. Aust Health Rev 2009: 33(4): 611-617 9362,2009,2,4,Global warming and biodiversity: Evidence of climate-linked amphibian declines in Italy,Amphibians are among the most endangered animals on Earth| and climatic shifts are among the hypothesized factors in their decline. We used spatial patterns of recent amphibian declines in Italy to test hypotheses pertaining to three potential| nonexclusive factors: climate change. habitat alteration| and high levels of incident solar radiation. This study was based on patterns of presence in a geographic grid for 19 species. Grid-squares in which presence had previously been documented| but was not re-confirmed after a specific threshold year| were considered to represent declines. Using a GIS-based approach| we calculated| for each cell| the mean values - or shift in mean values - of different parameters| used as proxies for the three factors. The measures of these parameters were entered as predictors in specific autocovariate models fitted on grid-square status. Our results suggest that while multiple factors have contributed to declines| climate change has been a major cause of population disappearances. We identified a common pattern of disappearances in areas that have been especially affected by climatic shifts. Our findings also strongly suggest that habitat alteration| due mainly to urban land use| has contributed to the decline of several species and that solar irradiation| though probably not a direct cause of mortality| may have been important in association with other stressors. By identifying the most threatened species| geographical hot spots of decline| and the primary causes of decline| our work provides a basis for improving management and setting conservation priorities. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10146,2009,3,4,Global warming and environmental production efficiency ranking of the Kyoto Protocol nations,This paper analyzes the United Nations Organization's Kyoto Protocol nations to address two questions. First| what are the environmental production efficiency rankings of these nations? Second| is there a relationship between a nation's ratification status and its environmental production efficiency ranking? Our findings suggest that the nations that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol are more likely to be environmentally production efficient as compared to the nations that have not ratified the Protocol. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9831,2009,2,4,Global warming and eutrophication: effects on water chemistry and autotrophic communities in experimental hypertrophic shallow lake mesocosms,Shallow lakes are important components of the biosphere| but they are also highly vulnerable to damage from human activities in their catchments| such as nutrient pollution. They may also be particularly vulnerable to current warming trends. Forty-eight tanks were used to create 3-m(3) mesocosms of shallow lake communities| in which the effects of warming by 4 degrees C and regular nutrient loading at two levels relevant to current degrees of eutrophication were studied in the presence and absence of fish. Warming changed concentrations of soluble phosphate| total nitrogen and conductivity| increased total plant biomass and decreased the amount of phytoplankton through shading by floating plants. Nutrient additions decreased total plant biomass but increased floating plant biomass. Nitrogen increase and warming increased floating plant biomass and decreased plant species richness. The plant community remained intact and did not switch to the turbid-water| phytoplankton-dominated community often predicted to be a consequence of global warming and eutrophication. Synthesis and applications. Likely future temperature increase will exacerbate some| but not all symptoms of eutrophication in shallow lakes. Alone it will not cause a switch from plant-dominated to algal-dominated systems| but may result in nuisance growths of floating lemnids. Currently underplayed| nitrogen loading should be taken more seriously in the management of European freshwaters. 9881,2009,2,3,Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations,This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively| based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term| climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty| vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9320,2009,2,4,Global Warming and the Water Crisis,This paper overviews the latest information on the impact of global warming on water cycles and resources| with a focus on links to health science. Many people may think that water issues mainly involve securing safe drinking water for regions lacking this crucial resource. However| of world water withdrawals| 70% is for agricultural water. Therefore| issues of water scarcity are highly connected with agriculture and food production. Global warming is expected to result in decreased water availability in semi-arid regions where major crop regions are located. Crop production in semi-arid regions already requires more water inputs than does agriculture in regions of ample natural rainfall; with global warming| the water situation in semi-arid regions is expected to worsen. In addition to the decrease in water for agriculture| domestic and drinking water supplies will also be threatened in semi-arid areas. In contrast| other regions may face the problem of too much water and flood disasters. Currently| the flood-affected population worldwide ranges from an annual minimum of approximately 30 million to a maximum of 300 million people. Projections for the late 21st century| however| suggest that 300 million will be the minimum number affected by flooding each year. The consequences of water decreases in some areas and increases in others caused by global warming will likely have close links to health. Therefore| health scientists should pay close attention to issues of climate and water resource change. 9660,2009,2,4,Global warming benefits the small in aquatic ecosystems,Understanding the ecological impacts of climate change is a crucial challenge of the twenty-first century. There is a clear lack of general rules regarding the impacts of global warming on biota. Here| we present a metaanalysis of the effect of climate change on body size of ectothermic aquatic organisms (bacteria| phyto- and zooplankton| and fish) from the community to the individual level. Using long-term surveys| experimental data and published results| we show a significant increase in the proportion of small-sized species and young age classes and a decrease in size-at-age. These results are in accordance with the ecological rules dealing with the temperature-size relationships (i.e.| Bergmann's rule| James' rule and Temperature-Size Rule). Our study provides evidence that reduced body size is the third universal ecological response to global warming in aquatic systems besides the shift of species ranges toward higher altitudes and latitudes and the seasonal shifts in life cycle events. 9978,2009,4,2,Global warming due to increasing absorbed solar radiation,Global climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are examined for the top-of-atmosphere radiation changes as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases build up from 1950 to 2100. There is an increase in net radiation absorbed| but not in ways commonly assumed. While there is a large increase in the greenhouse effect from increasing greenhouse gases and water vapor (as a feedback)| this is offset to a large degree by a decreasing greenhouse effect from reducing cloud cover and increasing radiative emissions from higher temperatures. Instead the main warming from an energy budget standpoint comes from increases in absorbed solar radiation that stem directly from the decreasing cloud amounts. These findings underscore the need to ascertain the credibility of the model changes| especially insofar as changes in clouds are concerned.
9442,2009,3,4,Global warming factor of municipal solid waste management in Europe,The global warming factor (GWF; CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) waste) performance of municipal waste management has been investigated for six representative European Member States: Denmark| France| Germany| Greece| Poland and the United Kingdom. The study integrated European waste statistical data for 2007 in a life-cycle assessment modelling perspective. It is shown that significant GWF benefit was achieved due to the high level of energy and material recovery substituting fossil energy and raw materials production| especially in Denmark and Germany. The study showed that| despite strong regulation of waste management at European level| there are major differences in GWF performance among the member states| due to the relative differences of waste composition| type of waste management technologies available nationally| and the average performance of these technologies. It has been demonstrated through a number of sensitivity analyses that| within the national framework| key waste management technology parameters can influence drastically the national GWF performance of waste management. 9443,2009,3,4,Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios,Global warming factors (kg CO(2)-eq.-tonne(-1) of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper| glass| plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling| incineration or mechanical-biological waste treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0-400| scenarios with incineration saved 200-700| and scenarios with mechanical-biological treatment saved 200-750 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) municipal waste depending on recycling scheme and energy recovery. Key parameters were the amount of paper recycled (it was assumed that wood made excessive by paper recycling substituted for fossil fuel)| the crediting of the waste management system for the amount of energy recovered (hard-coal-based energy was substituted)| and binding of biogenic carbon in landfills. Most other processes were of less importance. Rational waste management can provide significant savings in society's emission of greenhouse gas depending on waste composition and efficient utilization of the energy recovered. 9285,2009,2,4,Global warming increases flood risk in mountainous areas,The paper aims at assessing the impact of global warming on flood risk in mountainous regions| providing measurable evidence of possible hydrologic changes due to temperature increase. It shows that large floods in mountain basins are now more frequent than in the past and that they may become even more frequent under global warming. The morpho-climatic model used for prediction is very simple and does not require calibration| which makes it suitable for application in scarcely gauged mountainous areas of the world.
9542,2009,3,3,Global warming mitigation potential of biogas plants in India,Biogas technology| besides supplying energy and manure| provides an excellent opportunity for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and reducing global warming through substituting firewood for cooking| kerosene for lighting and cooking and chemical fertilizers. A study was undertaken to calculate (1) global warming mitigation potential (GMP) and thereby earning carbon credit of a family size biogas plant in India| (2) GMP of the existing and target biogas plants in the country and (3) atmospheric pollution reduction by a family size biogas plant. The GMP of a family size biogas plant was 9.7 t CO(2) equiv. year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) and with the current price of US $10 t (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) CO(2) equiv.| carbon credit of US $97 year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) could be earned from such reduction in greenhouse gas emission under the clean development mechanism (CDM). A family size biogas plant substitutes 316 L of kerosene| 5|535 kg firewood and 4|400 kg cattle dung cake as fuels which will reduce emissions of NOx| SO(2)| CO and volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere by 16.4| 11.3| 987.0 and 69.7 kg year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1)| respectively. Presently 3.83 million biogas plants are operating in the country| which can mitigate global warming by 37 Mt CO(2) equiv. year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1). Government of India has a target of installing 12.34 million biogas plants by 2010. This target has a GMP of 120 Mt CO(2) equiv. year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) and US $1|197 million as carbon credit under the CDM. However| if all the collectible cattle dung (225 Mt) produced in the country is used| 51.2 million family size biogas plants can be supported which will have a GMP of 496 Mt of CO(2) equiv. year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) and can earn US $4|968 million as carbon credit. The reduction in global warming should encourage policy makers to promote biogas technology to combat climate change and integration of carbon revenues will help the farmers to develop biogas as a profitable activity. 9337,2009,4,4,GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL OF DRAINED AND UNDRAINED PEATLANDS IN ESTONIA: A SYNTHESIS,We estimated the global warming potential of Estonian peatlands (transitional fens and ombrotrophic bogs) based on greenhouse gases (GHG) CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O and carbon (C) accrual in biomass| and the effects of drainage on these processes. Data were derived from a review of the literature of boreal peatlands. Areal estimates of peatland types were Multiplied with the values of the interquartile range of literature-derived GHG fluxes. The effect of drainage and radiative forcing of Estonian peatlands were also evaluated. Annual emission Of CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O is estimated to be 278 to 1|056 x 10(3) Of CO(2) equivalent (eq)| of which CO(2) makes up 22 to 44%| CH(4) 53 to 73%| and N(2)O 3 to 5%. The annual efflux is 419 to 676 x 10(3) CO(2) eq year(-1) from drained peatlands| and - 141 to 380 x 10(3) CO(2) eq year(-1) from the undrained peatlands. The annual loss of C from peatlands is estimated to be 38 to 86 tons C x 10(3) year(-1). Thus due to drainage| Estonia's transitional fens and ombrotrophic bogs have gone from being sinks to sources of C. 9751,2009,3,3,Global warming potential of pavements,Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network| yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production| transportation| onsite equipment| traffic delay| carbonation| lighting| albedo| and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator| ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors| such as traffic level and location| are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components. 10264,2009,3,4,Global warming potential of the sulfur-iodine process using life cycle assessment methodology,A life cycle assessment (LCA) of one proposed method of hydrogen production - thermochemical water-splitting using the sulfur-iodine cycle couple with a very high-temperature nuclear reactor - is presented in this paper. Thermochemical water-splitting theoretically offers a higher overall efficiency than high-temperature electrolysis of water because heat from the nuclear reactor is provided directly to the hydrogen generation process| instead of using the intermediate step of generating electricity. The primary heat source for the S-1 cycle is an advanced nuclear reactor of operating at temperatures corresponding to those required by the sulfur-iodine process. This LCA examines the environmental impact of the combined advanced nuclear and hydrogen generation plants and focuses on quantifying the emissions of carbon dioxide per kilogram of hydrogen produced. The results are presented in terms of global warming potential (GWP). The GWP of the system is 2500 g carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO(2)-eq) per kilogram of hydrogen produced. The GWP of this process is approximately one-sixth of that for hydrogen production by steam reforming of natural gas| and is comparable to producing hydrogen from wind- or hydro-electric conventional electrolysis. (c) 2008 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10059,2009,2,2,Global warming threat on water resources and environment: a review,Global warming| greenhouse effect| and the climate change problems are long-term anthropogenic consequences that are expected to threaten water related demand and supply patterns in the near future. These problems may be identified linguistically on a logical basis to take the necessary precautions| and implement mitigation strategies after vulnerability possibilities are assessed using fuzzy logic. Climate change effects are the focus of many scientific| engineering| economic| social| cultural| and global nuisances| and these effects awaits cost-effective remedial solutions. Extreme events such as floods and droughts and modified groundwater recharge may be influenced by climate change. 9400,2009,4,3,Global warming| convective threshold and false thermostats,We demonstrate a theoretically expected behavior of the tropical sea surface temperature probability density function (PDF) in future and past (Eocene) greenhouse climate simulations. To first order this consists of a shift to warmer temperatures as climate warms| without change of shape of the PDF. The behavior is tied to a shift of the temperature for deep convection onset. Consequently| the threshold for appearance of high clouds and associated radiative forcing shifts along with temperature. An excess entropy coordinate provides a reference to which the onset of deep convection is invariant| and gives a compact description of SST changes and cloud feedbacks suitable for diagnostics and as a basis for simplified climate models. The results underscore that the typically skewed appearance of tropical SST histograms| with a sharp drop-off above some threshold value| should not be taken as evidence for tropical thermostats. Citation: Williams| I. N.| R. T. Pierrehumbert| and M. Huber (2009)| Global warming| convective threshold and false thermostats| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L21805| doi: 10.1029/2009GL039849. 9979,2009,2,4,Global warming-enhanced stratification and mass mortality events in the Mediterranean,Summer conditions in the Mediterranean Sea are characterized by high temperatures and low food availability. This leads to "summer dormancy'' in many benthic suspension feeders due to energetic constraints. Analysis of the most recent 33-year temperature time series demonstrated enhanced stratification due to global warming| which produced a approximate to 40% lengthening of summer conditions. Many biological processes are expected to be affected by this trend| culminating in such events as mass mortality of invertebrates. Climatic anomalies concomitant with the occurrence of these events represent prolonged exposure to warmer summer conditions coupled with reduced food resources. Simulation of the effects of these conditions on a model organism demonstrated a biomass loss of > 35%. Losses of this magnitude result in mortality similar to that noted in field observations during mass mortality events. These results indicate that temperature anomalies are the underlying cause of the events| with energetic constraints serving as the main triggering mechanism. 10116,2009,3,3,Global Warming: The Hard Road Ahead,With a president committed to fighting climate change and a new Congress inclined to go along| the prospects for greenhouse gas emissions abatement legislation are bright. That's good news. The Bush and Clinton administrations' intransigence on this issue set back U.S. action by at least a decade. But it should not obscure the reality that one obstacle to a successful effort in slowing global warming--the cooperation of the rapidly developing economies--is truly daunting. Indeed| failure to acknowledge the difficulty of herding this particular pride of cats in the right direction could cost us another lost decade. Although there is hardly a consensus about the content of the coming legislation| a market-based system that distributes carbon emissions rights among stakeholders and encourages them to minimize costs by freely trading the permits will probably be at the core of it. The biggest unknown is whether the legislation will tie U.S. containment efforts to those of other countries and whether it will include measures to encourage their cooperation.
Conventional theory of global warming states that heating of atmosphere occurs as a result of accumulation of CO(2) and CH(4) in atmosphere. The writers show that rising concentration of CO(2) should result in the cooling of climate. The methane accumulation has no essential effect on the Earth's climate. Even significant releases of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the atmosphere do not change average parameters of the Earth's heat regime and the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Moreover| CO(2) concentration increase in the atmosphere results in rising agricultural productivity and improves the conditions for reforestation. Thus| accumulation of small additional amounts of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic activities has practically no effect on the Earth's climate.
9758,2009,3,3,Greenhouse gases emission from municipal waste management: The role of separate collection,The municipal solid waste management significantly contributes to the emission in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases (e.g. CO(2)| CH(4)| N(2)O) and therefore the management process from collection to treatment and disposal has to be optimized in order to reduce these emissions. In this paper| starting from the average composition of undifferentiated municipal solid waste in Italy| the effect of separate collection on greenhouse gases emissions from municipal waste management has been assessed. Different combinations of separate collection scenarios and disposal options (i.e. landfilling and incineration) have been considered. The effect of energy recovery from waste both in landfills and incinerators has also been addressed. The results outline how a separate collection approach can have a significant effect on the emission of greenhouse gases and how wise municipal solid waste management| implying the adoption of Best Available Technologies (i.e. biogas recovery and exploitation system in landfills and energy recovery system in Waste to Energy plants)| can not only significantly reduce greenhouse gases emissions but| in certain cases| can also make the overall process a carbon sink. Moreover it has been shown that separate collection of plastic is a major issue when dealing with global warming relevant emissions from municipal solid waste management. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9430,2009,3,3,Greenhouse gases| radiative forcing| global warming potential and waste management - an introduction,Management of post-consumer solid waste contributes to emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) representing about 3% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Most GHG reporting initiatives around the world utilize two metrics proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): radiative forcing (RF) and global warming potential (GWP). This paper provides a general introduction of the factors that define a GHG and explains the scientific background for estimating RF and GWP| thereby exposing the lay reader to a brief overview of the methods for calculating the effects of GHGs on climate change. An objective of this paper is to increase awareness that the GWP of GHGs has been re-adjusted as the concentration and relative proportion of these GHGs has changed with time (e.g.| the GWP of methane has changed from 21 to 25 CO(2)-eq). Improved understanding of the indirect effects of GHGs has also led to a modification in the methodology for calculating GWP. Following a presentation of theory behind GHG| RF and GWP concepts| the paper briefly describes the most important GHG sources and sinks in the context of the waste management industry. The paper serves as a primer for more detailed research publications presented in this special issue of Waste Management & Research providing a technology-based assessment of quantitative GHG emissions from different waste management technologies. 9966,2009,4,2,Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C,More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 degrees C or below ( relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks| impacts and damages(1|2). However| the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to uncertainties in the carbon cycle and the climate response. Here we provide a comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000-50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 degrees C| based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints. We show that| for the chosen class of emission scenarios| both cumulative emissions up to 2050 and emission levels in 2050 are robust indicators of the probability that twenty-first century warming will not exceed 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Limiting cumulative CO(2) emissions over 2000-50 to 1|000 Gt CO(2) yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2 degrees C-and a limit of 1|440 Gt CO(2) yields a 50% probability - given a representative estimate of the distribution of climate system properties. As known 2000-06 CO(2) emissions(3) were similar to 234 Gt CO(2)| less than half the proven economically recoverable oil| gas and coal reserves(4-6) can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. Recent G8 Communiques(7) envisage halved global GHG emissions by 2050| for which we estimate a 12-45% probability of exceeding 2 degrees C-assuming 1990 as emission base year and a range of published climate sensitivity distributions. Emissions levels in 2020 are a less robust indicator| but for the scenarios considered| the probability of exceeding 2 degrees C rises to 53-87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 levels in 2020. 9724,2009,2,4,Groundwater dynamics mediate low-flow response to global warming in snow-dominated alpine regions,In mountain environments| spatial and temporal patterns of snow accumulation and melt are dominant controls on hydrologic responses to climate change. In this paper| we develop a simple conceptual model that links the timing of peak snowmelt with geologically mediated differences in rate of streamflow recession. This model demonstrates that within the western United States| spatial differences in subsurface drainage rates can exacerbate summer streamflow losses associated with diminishing snowpacks. Application of a process-based hydrologic model to four watersheds in the Western Cordillera further reveals that contingent on timing of snowmelt| slower draining watersheds are likely to have more water in summer but paradoxically are subject to the greatest summer water losses under a 1.5 degrees C warming scenario. A slow draining watershed located in the young volcanic arc of the High Cascades in Oregon shows 4 times the summer streamflow reduction when compared with faster draining watersheds with similar timing of peak snowmelt. On the other hand| watersheds where snowmelt occurs late in the season but have little groundwater influence show high relative sensitivities to snowpack changes due to warming| as shown by a high-elevation granitic Sierran watershed. Our results highlight the importance of geological factors in interpreting hydrologic response to climate change and argue for a geoclimatic framework to guide the design of monitoring networks that will become the basis for assessing climate change impacts in mountain regions throughout the globe. 1009,2009,2,3,Growing-season rainfall and scenarios of future change in southeast Africa: implications for cultivating maize,Global climate change is a detectable and attributable global phenomenon| yet its manifestation at the regional scale| especially within the rainfall record| can be difficult to identify. This problem is particularly acute over southern Africa| a region characterised by a low density of observations and highly dependent on rural agriculture| where the impact of rainfall changes on maize cultivation critically depends on the timing with respect to the crop phenological cycle. To evaluate changes in rainfall affecting maize cropping| daily rainfall observations from 104 stations across Malawi| Mozambique| Zambia and Zimbabwe were used to detect trends in planting dates| rainfall cessation and duration of the rainfall season| as well as number of dry days| length of dry spells and measures of rainfall intensity during critical periods for growing maize. Correlations with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) were used to infer how large-scale climate variability affects these attributes of rainfall and highlight where (and when) trends may contribute to more frequent crossings of critical thresholds. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was associated with changes in planting and cessation dates as well as the frequency of raindays during the rainfall season (particularly early in the season). AAO mainly affected raindays towards the end of the season when maize was planted late. Trends are discussed relative to changes projected in empirically downscaled scenarios of rainfall from 7 general circulation models for the 2046-2065 period| assuming an SRES A2 emissions scenario. 763,2009,2,3,Growth and development of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in response to CO(2) enrichment under two different temperature regimes,An increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration ([CO(2)]) together with other climate change factors could greatly affect agricultural productivity. Understanding the impact of the change in atmospheric [CO(2)] in conjunction with the ongoing global change is crucial to prepare for mitigation and any adaptation for future agricultural production. The main goal of this project was to study the time-course pattern of cotton plant growth in response to [CO(2)] and temperature to investigate the hypothesis that whether response to elevated [CO(2)] would change at different temperatures. An experiment was conducted in the controlled-environment chambers of the Georgia Envirotron with two different day/night temperatures levels| e.g.| 25/15 degrees C and 35/25 degrees C| and three CO(2) concentrations| e.g.| 400| 600 and 800 mu mol l(-1). The experimental design was completely randomized with four replicates (plastic containers) per treatment. Growth analysis was conducted at bi-weekly intervals during the growing season. In addition| leaf area| leaf dry mass| root dry mass| square dry mass| boll dry mass and total above dry mass per plant were also measured at each sampling. Plant traits| including plant height| number of leaves| number of squares and number of bolls were recorded weekly. The number of days to emergence| squaring| flowering and maturity were also observed. The results showed that by increasing [CO(2)] to 600 mu mol l(-1) total biomass increased at both temperature levels| but a further increase Of [CO(2)] up to 800 mu mol l(-1) increased total biomass only at the temperature of 35/25 degrees C. Throughout the growing season| there was no significant effect Of [CO(2)] levels on LAI. Increasing temperature from 25/15 degrees C to 35/25 degrees C had a positive impact on LAI across all CO(2) levels (P<0.05). Increasing CO(2) from 400 to 600 mu mol l(-1) significantly increased the number of squares by 31.4%| but a further increase to 800 mu mol l(-1) caused a 6.6% decrease (nonsignificant) in the number of squares. The interactive effects Of [CO(2)] and temperature indicated that at a higher temperature| CO(2) would be more beneficial as we proceed towards the end of the growing season. However| further studies are needed to really understand the interaction between higher [CO(2)] and temperature levels and cultivar characteristics. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10180,2009,2,4,Growth in elevated CO(2) enhances temperature response of photosynthesis in wheat,The temperature dependence of C(3) photosynthesis may be altered by the growth environment. The effects of long-term growth in elevated CO(2) on photosynthesis temperature response have been investigated in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grown in controlled chambers with 370 or 700 mu mol mol(-1) CO(2) from sowing through to anthesis. Gas exchange was measured in flag leaves at ear emergence| and the parameters of a biochemical photosynthesis model were determined along with their temperature responses. Elevated CO(2) slightly decreased the CO(2) compensation point and increased the rate of respiration in the light and ribulose-1|5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco) V(cmax)| although the latter effect was reversed at 15 degrees C. With elevated CO(2)| J(max) decreased in the 15-25 degrees C temperature range and increased at 30 and 35 degrees C. The temperature response (activation energy) of V(cmax) and J(max) increased with growth in elevated CO(2). CO(2) enrichment decreased the ribulose 1|5-bisphosphate (RuBP)-limited photosynthesis rates at lower temperatures and increased Rubisco- and RuBP-limited rates at higher temperatures. The results show that the photosynthesis temperature response is enhanced by growth in elevated CO(2). We conclude that if temperature acclimation and factors such as nutrients or water availability do not modify or negate this enhancement| the effects of future increases in air CO(2) on photosynthetic electron transport and Rubisco kinetics may improve the photosynthetic response of wheat to global warming. 10001,2009,3,2,H(2)CO(3)(s): A New Candidate for CO(2) Capture and Sequestration,To reduce the magnitude of anthropogenic global warming it is necessary to remove CO(2)(g) from the effluent streams of coal-fired power plants and to sequester the CO(2) either as a liquid or by reaction with other compounds. A major difficulty in achieving this goal arises from the very weak acidity Of CO(2)(g)| causing it to react only incompletely with weak bases| although this weak interaction does provide a means for "stripping" the CO(2) from the acid-base complex at high temperatures. Reaction with strong bases like NaOH yields more stable complexes| but massive amounts of chemical reactants would need to be purchased and chemical products like NaHCO(3) then stored. However| when gas-phase CO(2) reacts with the weak base water (or when bicarbonate reacts with strong acid) the unstable product monomeric "H(2)CO(3)" can be formed. The free energy required is about 16 kcal/mol in the gas phase and about 10 kcal/mol in aqueous solution. This energy can be supplied by particle or photon excitation and is only a small fraction of the energy released when a mole of CH(4) is converted to a mole of CO(2). Although this monomeric compound is highly unstable| its oligomers are considerably more stable| due to internal H-bonding| with free energies for the larger oligomers in the gas phase which are about 4 kcal/(mol of H(2)CO(3)) lower| only about 6 kcal/mol H(2)CO(3) higher than the gas-phase combination of CO(2) and H(2)O at room temperature. Also| at lower temperature the entropic penalty for the oligomer is less and oligomeric H(2)CO(3) becomes stable around the sublimation temperature of dry ice. This indicates that it may be possible to capture gas-phase CO(2) directly| using only cheap and abundant H(2)O as a reactant and to store the resulting (H(2)CO(3))(n) as a oligomeric solid at only moderately cold temperatures. These conclusions are based on quantum computations that accurately reproduce the structures| spectra| and stabilities of H(2)CO(3) oligomers. Methods for producing and characterizing the H(2)CO(3) oligomers are discussed. However| some aspects of the proposed scheme are quite speculative and will require additional investigation. Several important questions need to be answered before the feasibility of this procedure on a planetary scale can be assessed| particularly those involving the vapor pressure curve| heat of sublimation| density| and compressibility of (H(2)CO(3))(n). 9944,2009,4,3,Hadley Cell Widening: Model Simulations versus Observations,Observations show that the Hadley cell has widened by about 2 degrees-5 degrees since 1979. This widening and the concomitant poleward displacement of the subtropical dry zones may be accompanied by large-scale drying near 30 degrees N and 30 degrees S. Such drying poses a risk to inhabitants of these regions who are accustomed to established rainfall patterns. Simple and comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs) indicate that the Hadley cell may widen in response to global warming| warming of the west Pacific| or polar stratospheric cooling. The combination of these factors may be responsible for the recent observations. But there is no study so far that has compared the observed widening to GCM simulations of twentieth-century climate integrated with historical changes in forcings. Here the Hadley cell widening is assessed in current GCMs from historical simulations of the twentieth century as well as future climate projections and preindustrial control runs. The authors find that observed widening cannot be explained by natural variability. This observed widening is also significantly larger than in simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. These results illustrate the need for further investigation into the discrepancy between the observed and simulated widening of the Hadley cell. 10054,2009,2,4,Haemoglobin polymorphisms affect the oxygen-binding properties in Atlantic cod populations,A major challenge in evolutionary biology is to identify the genes underlying adaptation. The oxygen-transporting haemoglobins directly link external conditions with metabolic needs and therefore represent a unique system for studying environmental effects on molecular evolution. We have discovered two haemoglobin polymorphisms in Atlantic cod populations inhabiting varying temperature and oxygen regimes in the North Atlantic. Three-dimensional modelling of the tetrameric haemoglobin structure demonstrated that the two amino acid replacements Met55 beta(1)Val and Lys62 beta(1)Ala are located at crucial positions of the alpha(1)beta(1) subunit interface and haem pocket| respectively. The replacements are proposed to affect the oxygen-binding properties by modifying the haemoglobin quaternary structure and electrostatic feature. Intriguingly| the same molecular mechanism for facilitating oxygen binding is found in avian species adapted to high altitudes| illustrating convergent evolution in water- and air-breathing vertebrates to reduction in environmental oxygen availability. Cod populations inhabiting the cold Arctic waters and the low-oxygen Baltic Sea seem well adapted to these conditions by possessing the high oxygen affinity Val55-Ala62 haplotype| while the temperature-insensitive Met55-Lys62 haplotype predominates in the southern populations. The distinct distributions of the functionally different haemoglobin variants indicate that the present biogeography of this ecologically and economically important species might be seriously affected by global warming. 10126,2009,3,3,Halocarbon Emissions from the United States and Mexico and Their Global Warming Potential,We use recent aircraft measurements of a comprehensive suite of anthropogenic halocarbons| carbon monoxide (CO)| and related tracers to place new constraints on North American halocarbon emissions and quantify their global warming potential. Using a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) we find that the ensemble of observations are consistent with our prior best estimate of the U.S. anthropogenic CO source| but suggest a 30% underestimate of Mexican emissions. We develop an optimized CO emission inventory on this basis and quantify halocarbon emissions from their measured enhancements relative to CO. Emissions continue for many compounds restricted under the Montreal Protocol| and we show that halocarbons make up an important fraction of the total greenhouse gas source for both countries: our best estimate is 9% (uncertainty range 6-12%) and 32% (21-52%) of equivalent CO(2) emissions for the U.S. and Mexico| respectively| on a 20 year time scale. Performance of bottom-up emission inventories is variable| with underestimates for some compounds and overestimates for others. Ongoing methylchloroform emissions are significant in the U.S. (2.8 Gg/y in 2004-2006)| in contrast to bottom-up estimates (< 0.05 Gg)| with implications for tropospheric OH calculations. Mexican methylchloroform emissions are minor. 825,2009,4,4,Harmonizing soil organic carbon estimates in historical and current data,Estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) is indispensable in studies involving soils and global climate change. SOC retention in soil is a function of climate| vegetation and intrinsic soil properties. Historically| SOC estimates are based on wet digestion which gives low carbon recovery. This results in underestimation of its density and stock| however| most of the existing historical and current SOC data sets are based on wet digestion. Hence| we have compared the wet digestion with precise oxidative combustion method for SOC estimation| to develop factors for conversion of historical data into comparable values. It was found that the recovery percentage of SOC is lower than oxidative method and it further decreased with increase in clay content. In case of land use| the recovery percentage is higher in forest soils| followed by agricultural soils and the least in wasteland. A general correction factor of 1.42 and clay content specific correction factors of 1.35| 1.45 and 1.81 are recommended to convert historical data into current reliable SOC estimates. 9332,2009,3,3,Health and Climate Change 5 Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: health implications of short-lived greenhouse pollutants,In this report we review the health effects of three short-lived greenhouse pollutants-black carbon| ozone| and sulphates. We under-took new meta-analyses of existing time-series studies and an analysis of a cohort of 352000 people in 66 US cities during 18 years of follow-up. This cohort study provides estimates of mortality effects from long-term exposure to elemental carbon| an indicator of black carbon mass| and evidence that ozone exerts an independent risk of mortality. Associations among these pollutants make drawing conclusions about their individual health effects difficult at present| but sulphate seems to have the most robust effects in multiple-pollutant models. Generally| the toxicology of the pure compounds and their epidemiology diverge because atmospheric black carbon| ozone| and sulphate are associated and could interact with related toxic species. Although sulphate is a cooling agent| black carbon and ozone could together exert nearly half as much global warming as carbon dioxide. The complexity of these health and climate effects needs to be recognised in mitigation policies. 861,2009,2,4,Heat-related side-effects of neurological and non-neurological medication may increase heatwave fatalities,During the 2003 French heatwave 15 000 excess deaths were registered. One fifths died from the combination of dehydration| heatstroke| and hyperthermia and one tenth from dehydration| despite abundant water. We hypothesized that physiologic adaptation to heat was not effective in the victims attributable to side-effects of drugs (impaired thermoregulation| suppressed thirst) many of these patients were taking. This could explain why many victims died of dehydration despite availability of water. As a consequence of the global climate change heatwaves may occur more frequently and may be more intense| with a strong impact on the future selection of drugs in elderly patients. Insufficient water intake| impaired thermoregulation| and resulting death may be directly linked to the use of certain drugs| implying an immediate need for public awareness during heatwaves and for long-term strategies to mitigate the expected increase in future heatwave-related fatalities. 9458,2009,2,4,Herbivores inhibit climate-driven shrub expansion on the tundra,Recent Pan-Arctic shrub expansion has been interpreted as a response to a warmer climate. However| herbivores can also influence the abundance of shrubs in arctic ecosystems. We addressed these alternative explanations by following the changes in plant community composition during the last 10 years in permanent plots inside and outside exclosures with different mesh sizes that exclude either only reindeer or all mammalian herbivores including voles and lemmings. The exclosures were replicated at three forest and tundra sites at four different locations along a climatic gradient ( oceanic to continental) in northern Fennoscandia. Since the last 10 years have been exceptionally warm| we could study how warming has influenced the vegetation in different grazing treatments. Our results show that the abundance of the dominant shrub| Betula nana| has increased during the last decade| but that the increase was more pronounced when herbivores were excluded. Reindeer have the largest effect on shrubs in tundra| while voles and lemmings have a larger effect in the forest. The positive relationship between annual mean temperature and shrub growth in the absence of herbivores and the lack of relationships in grazed controls is another indication that shrub abundance is controlled by an interaction between herbivores and climate. In addition to their effects on taller shrubs (>0.3 m)| reindeer reduced the abundance of lichens| whereas microtine rodents reduced the abundance of dwarf shrubs (<0.3 m) and mosses. In contrast to short-term responses| competitive interactions between dwarf shrubs and lichens were evident in the long term. These results show that herbivores have to be considered in order to understand how a changing climate will influence tundra ecosystems. 1008,2009,2,4,Heterogeneity of Thermal Extremes: Driven by Disturbance or Inherent in the Landscape,Ecologists are beginning to recognize the effect of heterogeneity on structure and function in arid and semiarid ecosystems. Additionally| the influences of temperature on ecosystems are widely documented| but landscape temperature patterns and relationships with vegetation are rarely reported in ecological studies. To better understand the importance of temperature patterns to the conservation and restoration of native ecosystems| we designed an experiment to investigate relationships among soil surface temperature| landscape heterogeneity| and grazing intensity. Grazing intensity did influence the vegetation structure and composition. Heavy treatments had the greatest bare ground and the least vertical structure. Ungrazed treatments had the most litter and live grass cover. However| average temperatures among the three grazing treatments were not different and ranged less than 2A degrees C during midday summer periods. The temperature difference between riparian and upland landscapes within grazing treatments was 21A degrees C. Landscape position (riparian vs. upland) did have a significant influence on soil surface temperature and produced a variation in temperature 11 times greater than grazing intensities. Thermal heterogeneity did not differ among grazing treatments. Lower soil surface temperatures (associated with riparian areas) may provide a critical thermal refuge for many animals in arid and semiarid ecosystems on hot summer days| when air temperatures can exceed 37A degrees C. Riparian zones| specifically riparian vegetation| are an important component in ecosystem management. 9677,2009,3,4,HFOs New| Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants,Recent research and development activity is focusing on fluorinated propene (propylene) isomers as potential refrigerants possessing low global warming potentials (GWPs). The catalyst for much of this effort can be attributed to European regulations regarding the use of R-134a (GWP relative to C[O.sub.2] based on a 100-year time horizon| which is the reference that will be used here| is 1|430 (1)) in automotive applications.
In particular| the European Union's F-gas regulations (2|3) specify beginning on Jan. 1| 2011 new models and on Jan. 1| 2017 new vehicles fitted with air conditioning cannot be manufactured with fluorinated greenhouse gases having GWPs greater than 150.
Among possible candidates that meet this criterion are R-152a| C[O.sub.2]| and R-1234yf. R-152a| if used| would likely be implemented in an indirect system (secondary loop) because of its flammability. C[O.sub.2]| if used| would be implemented in a transcritical cycle and would require significant modifications to automotive air-conditioning systems currently in use. R-1234yf has a GWP of 4| (4) and among the fluorinated propene isomers is the one closest to commercialization.
This article discusses R-1234yf and several other fluorinated propene isomers.
Their refrigerant numbering scheme is summarized. The flammability and toxicity of these isomers is briefly addressed. Estimated fundamental parameters and thermodynamic properties for eight of these isomers is presented. And| the ideal cycle performances of these eight isomers are estimated for three typical applications.
9497,2009,2,4,Hibernation and daily torpor minimize mammalian extinctions,Small mammals appear to be less vulnerable to extinction than large species| but the underlying reasons are poorly understood. Here| we provide evidence that almost all (93.5%) of 61 recently extinct mammal species were homeothermic| maintaining a constant high body temperature and thus energy expenditure| which demands a high intake of food| long foraging times| and thus exposure to predators. In contrast| only 6.5% of extinct mammals were likely heterothermic and employed multi-day torpor (hibernation) or daily torpor| even though torpor is widespread within more than half of all mammalian orders. Torpor is characterized by substantial reductions of body temperature and energy expenditure and enhances survival during adverse conditions by minimizing food and water requirements| and consequently reduces foraging requirements and exposure to predators. Moreover| because life span is generally longer in heterothermic mammals than in related homeotherms| heterotherms can employ a 'sit-and-wait' strategy to withstand adverse periods and then repopulate when circumstances improve. Thus| torpor is a crucial but hitherto unappreciated attribute of small mammals for avoiding extinction. Many opportunistic heterothermic species| because of their plastic energetic requirements| may also stand a better chance of future survival than homeothermic species in the face of greater climatic extremes and changes in environmental conditions caused by global warming. 10275,2009,3,4,Hicks| Hayek| Hotelling| Hubbert| and Hysteria or Energy| Exhaustion| Environmentalism| and Etatism in the 21st Century,In 2008| energy independence is making unwelcome return in a greatly expanded form. The old import-danger excuse| supplemented by claims that exhaustion and global warming also will be cured. The import danger threat remains overblown. Exhaustion is not an impending problem and| if it were| it has no policy implications for anything including for imports. Similarly| whatever is true|about global warming| it does not imply import controls. 992,2009,2,4,High dispersal potential has maintained long-term population stability in the North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus,The cool-water copepod Calanus finmarchicus is a key species in North Atlantic marine ecosystems since it represents an important food resource for the developmental stages of several fish of major economic value. Over the last 40 years| however| data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey have highlighted a 70 per cent reduction in C. finmarchicus biomass| coupled with a gradual northward shift in the species's distribution| which have both been linked with climate change. To determine the potential for C. finmarchicus to track changes in habitat availability and maintain stable effective population sizes| we have assessed levels of gene flow and dispersal in current populations| as well as using a coalescent approach together with palaeodistribution modelling to elucidate the historical population demography of the species over previous changes in Earth's climate. Our findings indicate high levels of dispersal and a constant effective population size over the period 359 000-566 000 BP and suggest that C. finmarchicus possesses the capacity to track changes in available habitat| a feature that may be of crucial importance to the species's ability to cope with the current period of global climate change. 10096,2009,2,4,High Temperature and Hospitalizations for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Causes in 12 European Cities,Rationale Episode analyses of heat waves have documented a comparatively higher impact on mortality than on morbidity (hospital admissions) in European cities. The evidence from daily time series studies is scarce and inconsistent. Objectives: To evaluate the impact of high environmental temperatures on hospital admissions during April to September in 12 European cities participating in the Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE) project. Methods: For each city| time series analysis was used to model the relationship between maximum apparent temperature (lag 0-3 days) and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular| cerebrovascular| and respiratory causes by age (all ages| 65-74 age group| and 75+ age group)| and the city-specific estimates were pooled for two geographical groupings of cities. Measurements and Main Results: For respiratory admissions| there was a positive association that was heterogeneous between cities. For a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above a threshold| respiratory admissions increased by +4.5% (95% confidence interval| 1.9-7.3) and +3.1% (95% confidence interval| 0.8-5.5) in the 75+ age group in Mediterranean and North-Continental cities| respectively. In contrast| the association between temperature and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular admissions tended to be negative and did not reach statistical significance. Conclusions: High temperatures have a specific impact on respiratory admissions| particularly in the elderly population| but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Why high temperature increases cardiovascular mortality but not cardiovascular admissions is also unclear. The impact of extreme heat events on respiratory admissions is expected to increase in European cities as a result of global warming and progressive population aging. 9298,2009,3,3,High-speed pumping to UHV,Development of a high-speed pumping system for ultra high vacuum (UHV) process dose not reduce only cost and waiting time for experiment and production| but also reduces CO(2) emission that is known as one of the serious causes in the global warming problem. Reduction of vapor water concentration in a purge gas line would be one of the most effective measures to reduce pumping time to UHV. We carried out control of water vapor in a nitrogen gas purge line in addition to surface treatments of chambers using buff polishing and electrolytic polishing| followed by measurement of outgassing rate of the chambers. Under the reasonable control of the water vapor| the pumping time to reach the pressure of 1 x 10(-6) Pa was able to be shortened with two orders of the magnitude. And it was also found that the main residual gas in the chamber was hydrogen after pumping down with the low concentration of water vapor. The quality of residual gas was equivalent to the quality in a baked UHV system. The introduction of well controlled nitrogen gas to the vacuum system which was not baked out during its pumping has proved a pressure of 3 x 10(-8) Pa for 24 h in the chamber without orifice. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9579,2009,2,3,Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves,Generating credible climate change and extremes projections remains a high-priority challenge| especially since recent observed emissions are above the worst-case scenario. Bias and uncertainty analyses of ensemble simulations from a global earth systems model show increased warming and more intense heat waves combined with greater uncertainty and large regional variability in the 21st century. Global warming trends are statistically validated across ensembles and investigated at regional scales. Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections. Model projections are relatively insensitive to initial conditions| while uncertainty bounds obtained by comparison with recent observations are wider than ensemble ranges. Increased trends in temperature and heat waves| concurrent with larger uncertainty and variability| suggest greater urgency and complexity of adaptation or mitigation decisions. 9413,2009,3,3,Historical and projected emissions of major halocarbons in China,The halocarbons studied here are chemicals controlled in the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its Amendments| which have both high ozone depleting potentials (ODPs) and high global warming potentials (GWPs). These halocarbons are mainly used for refrigeration| air-conditioning| foam blowing| tobacco expansion| aerosol propulsion| solvent cleaning| and fire fighting. China ratified the Montreal Protocol in 1991 and has been implementing the phase-out of halocarbons since then. In this paper| the emissions of halocarbons from China were estimated for 19952024 based on the historical consumption| the Country program for complying with the Montreal Protocol| and the sector plans for phasing out halocarbons. The results show that China's compliance with the Montreal Protocol contributes greatly to both ozone protection and climate protection. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9339,2009,2,4,HISTORY| STATUS| AND FUTURE OF OYSTER CULTURE IN FRANCE,The history of French oyster culture consists of a succession of developmental phases using different species| followed by collapses caused by diseases. The indigenous species Ostrea edulis was replaced first with Crassostrea angulata| then C. gigas. France is now the top producer and consumer of oysters in Europe| producing around 120|000 t of the cupped oyster C. gigas annually| and an additional 1500 t of the flat oyster O. edulis. Cupped oysters are produced all along the French coast from natural and hatchery spat. Various structures are used to collect spat from the wild. After a growing-on period| oysters are Cultivated by three main methods: (1) on-bottom culture in the intertidal zone or in deep water| (2) off-bottom culture in plastic mesh bags in the intertidal zone| or (3) suspended Culture on ropes in the open sea. The main recent development is the increasing use of hatchery oyster spat| especially triploids. Almost all oyster production is sold fresh and eaten raw straight from the shell. There is marked seasonality in sales| with the majority being made during Christmas and New Year. Abundant production and the lack of market organization induce strong competition among the production areas| causing prices to fall. Oyster farmers have developed strategies of sales promotion and regional quality labeling to overcome this difficulty. There are numerous production hazards| including environmental crises (microbiological pollution)| unexplained mortality| and overstocking| and recent problems with toxic algae have disrupted oyster sales. However| oyster Culture has many assets| including a coastal environment offering favorable sites for Mollusc growth and reproduction. Oysters have been consumed in France since ancient times| and their culture is now well established with a concession system that favors small family firms. There is a young| well-educated farmer population| with technical expertise and savoir faire. Careful seawater quality monitoring ensures good consumer protection| and research is making innovative contributions (|selection and polyploids). These points and opportunities for market expansion should bolster this industry's future| although the problem of toxic algae| probably linked to global warming and anthropogenic factors| and the threat of new diseases| pose vital questions for future research. 913,2009,2,4,Holocene sediment dynamics in an upland temperate lake catchment: climatic and land-use impacts in the English Lake District,Accelerated erosion and transport of fine sediment from upland temperate catchments can reflect increased erosivity and/or erodibility| due in turn to climatic and/or human forcing. Identification of sediment fluxes and sources over Holocene timescales can both enable understanding of the relative impacts of these forcings and provide perspective on recent sediment fluxes. Here we present a similar to 5500 yr record of sediment fluxes and sources from Lake Bassenthwaite in the English Lake District| utilizing magnetic measurements and fuzzy clustering| coupled with independent pollen and archaeological records| to identify the timing and impact of catchment disturbance. This record shows that recent sediment flux increases (ie| within the last 150 years) are unprecedented in scale throughout the mid-late Holocene and appear to be in response to specific human changes occurring within the catchment. Earlier episodes of human activity| from the mid Holocene onwards| show no link with increased lake sediment fluxes| indicating either limited catchment impact and/or 'buffering' through within-catchment sediment storage. Increasingly intensive land use and reduction of sediment storage through revetment construction on a key inflow| Newlands Beck| have resulted in a x increases in lake sediment flux. These data may be significant for other upland temperate areas| as increasing land-use pressures and reduced sediment storage capacity may not only increase contemporary sediment flux| but increase sensitivity to predicted increases in rainfall and storminess as a result of global climate change. 9573,2009,2,4,Holocene thinning of the Greenland ice sheet,On entering an era of global warming| the stability of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) is an important concern(1)| especially in the light of new evidence of rapidly changing flow and melt conditions at the GIS margins(2). Studying the response of the GIS to past climatic change may help to advance our understanding of GIS dynamics. The previous interpretation of evidence from stable isotopes (delta(18)O) in water from GIS ice cores was that Holocene climate variability on the GIS differed spatially(3) and that a consistent Holocene climate optimum-the unusually warm period from about 9|000 to 6|000 years ago found in many northern-latitude palaeoclimate records(4)-did not exist. Here we extract both the Greenland Holocene temperature history and the evolution of GIS surface elevation at four GIS locations. We achieve this by comparing delta(18)O from GIS ice cores(3|5) with delta(18)O from ice cores from small marginal icecaps. Contrary to the earlier interpretation of delta(18)O evidence from ice cores(3|6)| our new temperature history reveals a pronounced Holocene climatic optimum in Greenland coinciding with maximum thinning near the GIS margins. Our delta(18)O-based results are corroborated by the air content of ice cores| a proxy for surface elevation(7). State-of-the-art ice sheet models are generally found to be underestimating the extent and changes in GIS elevation and area; our findings may help to improve the ability of models to reproduce the GIS response to Holocene climate. 9767,2009,2,4,Honeybees| Communicative Order| and the Collapse of Ecosystems,The paper examines the sudden disappearance in the United States of millions of honeybees in managed bee colonies. The major research undertaken in the U.S. concentrates on finding the pathogens responsible. This paper suggests an alternative avenue of research a) that as a result of global warming there is a disjunction between bees pollinating cycles and the life cycle of plants b) that understanding changes in "timing cycles" as a result of global warming is the key to understanding the disappearance of the bees. It notes that Gregory Bateson argued that any condition of ecosystem collapse would be characterized first by a collapse in its communicative order rather| than from changed physical states. The collapse of bee colonies and demise of other pollinators is a seeming confirmation of Gregory Bateson argument. Honeybees are 'go betweens' in ecosystemic order. It also argues that an appropriate topology of timing cycles and their recursions would enable better visual comprehension of the heterarchical 'pattern which connects'| in Bateson's phrase| and prompt awareness of possible catastrophe in human food supplies. 1013,2009,3,3,Household heating and cooling energy use in the northeast USA: comparing the effects of climate change with those of purposive behaviors,For most residents in northern temperate zones| the most direct economic impact of global climate change is likely to be changes in home heating and cooling (HC) expenses| estimates of which should be of widespread interest. These residents are increasingly likely to make HC decisions (e.g. switches to electric heat| thermostat settings| conservation investments and behavioral change) in a wider context| The question turns from 'will projected climate change reduce my HC bills?' to 'how will projected climate change| with and without these various actions| affect my HC bills| my total energy use and my greenhouse gas emissions?' We modeled these 3 variables (HC expense| energy use and GHG emissions) on average households in 13 states in the northeastern United States under projected climate change alone| and under projected climate change with 3 modeled choices: increasing use of air-conditioners (AC); switching front petroleum-derived fuels to electric heating; and investing in insulation and efficiency upgrades. High climate change was projected to reduce annual HC expenses for average households in each state| the effect increasing through the century. These savings varied with ratios of heating degree-day to cooling degree-day changes| and with ratios of petroleum -derivative heating to electric heating households; both ratios varied along a north-south gradient in this region. Increasing AC use increased total energy use and CO(2) emissions more than it did expenses| Fuel-switching increased the first 2 more than it reduced the third. Upgrades provided the greatest savings in all 3 variables under low and high climate change. Effective energy policies and effective communication with energy users both require explicit investigation of HC intensities at the household level| and modeling of conservation behaviors as well as purchased upgrades.
10250,2009,4,2,How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming?,Climate models provide compelling evidence that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at present rates| then key global temperature thresholds (such as the European Union limit of two degrees of warming since pre-industrial times) are very likely to be crossed in the next few decades. However| there is relatively little attention paid to whether| should a dangerous temperature level be exceeded| it is feasible for the global temperature to then return to safer levels in a usefully short time. We focus on the timescales needed to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases and associated temperatures back below potentially dangerous thresholds| using a state-of-the-art general circulation model. This analysis is extended with a simple climate model to provide uncertainty bounds. We find that even for very large reductions in emissions| temperature reduction is likely to occur at a low rate. Policy-makers need to consider such very long recovery timescales implicit in the Earth system when formulating future emission pathways that have the potential to 'overshoot' particular atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and| more importantly| related temperature levels that might be considered dangerous. 9673,2009,4,3,How soon will climate records of the 20th century be broken according to climate model simulations ?,What will happen to local record values of temperature and precipitation in a world with ongoing global warming ? Here we first examine how many of the observed local temperature maxima of 1901-2006 occurred in the years 2001-2006 and compare the observations with model simulations. Then we study whether| and how soon| the models simulate the climate records of the 20th century to be broken in the ongoing 21st century. In 27% of our analysis area| the highest annual mean temperatures of the whole period 1901-2006 were observed in 2001-2006. For the 22 climate models in our study| this fraction varies from 17% to 70%| with a multimodel mean of 40%. In simulations based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario| the highest annual mean temperature of the 20th century is exceeded on average in 99% of the global area by the year 2080. The same number for the highest (lowest) annual precipitation total is 60% (43%). Monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation records are also analysed| and the geographical distributions of record value occurrence are related to the distributions of time mean climate change and magnitude of interannual variability. 9960,2009,2,3,How well do IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 climate models simulate global dimming/brightening and twentieth-century daytime and nighttime warming?,Observations indicate that greenhouse induced twentieth-century warming has been strongly modulated by variations in surface solar radiation. Between the 1950s and 1980s| declining surface solar radiation ("global dimming'') likely caused a dampening of global warming| whereas increasing surface solar radiation ("brightening'') may have contributed to the rapid warming in the last 2 decades| and possibly also in the first half of the twentieth century. This is also reflected in the decadal evolution of diurnal temperature range| which is highly correlated with surface solar radiation| and which shows a distinct transition from a strong decrease between the 1950s and 1980s| toward a leveling off thereafter. The present study investigates to what extent these effects are simulated in the latest generation of global climate models used in the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (AR4) (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) models). While these models reproduce the overall twentieth century warming over global land surfaces well| they underestimate the decadal variations in the warming and particularly also in diurnal temperature range| indicative of a lack of decadal variations in surface solar radiation in the models. 10299,2009,2,4,HSP70 expression in the Copper butterfly Lycaena tityrus across altitudes and temperatures,The ability to express heat-shock proteins (HSP) under thermal stress is an essential mechanism for ectotherms to cope with unfavourable conditions. In this study| we investigate if Copper butterflies originating from different altitudes and/or being exposed to different rearing and induction temperatures show differences in HSP70 expression. HSP70 expression increased substantially at the higher rearing temperature in low-altitude butterflies| which might represent an adaptation to occasionally occurring heat spells. On the other hand| high-altitude butterflies showed much less plasticity in response to rearing temperatures| and overall seem to rely more on genetically fixed thermal stress resistance. Whether the latter indicates a higher vulnerability of high-altitude populations to global warming needs further investigation. HSP70 expression increased with both colder and warmer induction temperatures. 780,2009,2,4,Human impacts overwhelm the effects of sea-level rise on Basque coastal habitats (N Spain) between 1954 and 2004,According to coastal measurements| global mean sea-level has risen at a rate of 1.8 mm yr(-1) between 1950 and 2000| with large spatial variability at regional scales. Within the Bay of Biscay| trends computed from coastal tide gauges records have revealed that sea-level rise is accelerating over this period of time; this is in agreement with rates obtained from satellite imagery in the open ocean since 1993. The objectives of the present study are: (1) to assess the evidence of the relative sea-level rise on coastal morphology and habitats in the Gipuzkoan littoral zone (Basque coast| northern Spain) for the period 1954-2004| and (2) to evaluate the relative contribution of local anthropogenic versus sea-level rise impacts for explaining inter-supratidal habitat changes. A high-resolution airborne laser altimetry data (LIDAR) has been used to derive a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of 15-cm vertical resolution. Coastal habitats were mapped for two periods| using historic airborne photography (1954) and high-resolution imagery (2004). Analysis of tide gauge records from Santander (northern Spain) has revealed that relative mean sea-level has been rising at a rate of 2.08 +/- 0.33 mm yr(-1) from 1943 to 2004; this is consistent with sea-level trends from other measurements within the area (St. jean de Luz and Bilbao)| obtained over shorter periods of time| and with previous results obtained in the Bay of Biscay. Based upon this sea-level trend and by means of a LIDAR-based DTM| the results have indicated that the predicted change along the Gipuzkoan coast due to sea-level rise was of 11.1 ha within the 50-yr period. In contrast| comparison of historical and recent orthophotography has detected only 2.95 ha of change| originated possibly from sea-level rise| and 98 ha transformed by anthropogenic impacts. Hence| coastal changes due to sea-level rise might be overwhelmed by excessive human impacts| at the spatial and temporal scales of the analysis. This work highlights that local anthropogenic impact is the major threat to Basque coastal and estuarine habitats| compared with natural erosive processes and global climate change driving forces over recent times. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 859,2009,2,4,Humic acids as electron acceptors in wetland decomposition,Decomposition of organic matter in inundated wetland soils requires a number of interdependent microbial processes that ultimately generate CO(2) and CH(4). Largely as the result of anaerobic decomposition| wetland soils store globally significant amounts of organic carbon and are currently net sources of CH(4) to the atmosphere. Given the importance of wetlands in the global carbon cycle| it is important to understand controls on anaerobic decomposition in order to predict feedbacks between wetland soils and global climate change. One perplexing pattern observed in many wetland soils is the high proportion Of CO(2) resulting from anaerobic decomposition that cannot be explained by any measured pathway of microbial respiration. Recent studies have hypothesized that humic substances| and in particular solid-phase humic substances in wetland soils| can support anaerobic microbial respiration by acting as organic electron acceptors. Humic substances may thus account for much of the currently unexplained CO(2) measured during decomposition in wetland soils. Here we demonstrate that humic acids extracted from a variety of wetland soils act as either electron donors or electron acceptors and alter the ratio of CO(2):CH(4) produced during anaerobic laboratory incubations. Our results suggest that soil-derived humic substances may play an important| and currently unexplored| role in anaerobic decomposition in wetland soils. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9503,2009,2,4,Hurricanes and coral bleaching linked to changes in coral recruitment in Tobago,Knowledge of coral recruitment patterns helps us understand how reefs react following major disturbances and provides us with an early warning system for predicting future reef health problems. We have reconstructed and interpreted historical and modern-day recruitment patterns| using a combination of growth modelling and in situ recruitment experiments| in order to understand how hurricanes| storms and bleaching events have influenced coral recruitment on the Caribbean coastline of Tobago. Whilst Tobago does not lie within the main hurricane belt results indicate that regional hurricane events negatively impact coral recruitment patterns in the Southern Caribbean. In years following hurricanes| tropical storms and bleaching events| coral recruitment was reduced when compared to normal years (p = 0.016). Following Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and the 2005-2006 bleaching event| coral recruitment was markedly limited with only 2% (n = 6) of colonies estimated to have recruited during 2006 and 2007. Our experimental results indicate that despite multiple large-scale disturbances corals are still recruiting on Tobago's marginal reef systems| albeit in low numbers. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 757,2009,4,4,Hutchinson's duality: The once and future niche,The duality between "niche'' and "biotope'' proposed by G. Evelyn Hutchinson provides a powerful way to conceptualize and analyze biogeographical distributions in relation to spatial environmental patterns. Both Joseph Grinnell and Charles Elton had attributed niches to environments. Attributing niches| instead| to species| allowed Hutchinson's key innovation: the formal severing of physical place from environment that is expressed by the duality. In biogeography| the physical world ( a spatial extension of what Hutchinson called the biotope) is conceived as a map| each point ( or cell) of which is characterized by its geographical coordinates and the local values of n environmental attributes at a given time. Exactly the same n environmental attributes define the corresponding niche space| as niche axes| allowing reciprocal projections between the geographic distribution of a species| actual or potential| past or future| and its niche. In biogeographical terms| the realized niche has come to express not only the effects of species interactions ( as Hutchinson intended)| but also constraints of dispersal limitation and the lack of contemporary environments corresponding to parts of the fundamental niche. Hutchinson's duality has been used to classify and map environments; model potential species distributions under past| present| and future climates; study the distributions of invasive species; discover new species; and simulate increasingly more realistic worlds| leading to spatially explicit| stochastic models that encompass speciation| extinction| range expansion| and evolutionary adaptation to changing environments. 10369,2009,2,4,Hydroclimatic variability and relation with flood events (Southern Qu|bec| Canada),In the context of global warming| some climatic models predict an increase in flooding in some regions of the world. It is therefore important to better define the high-risk areas and to limit the use of these areas by riverside communities as much as possible. The study deals with the historical and chronological reconstruction of flood events (from 1865 to 2005) in the southern Quebec basins| and compare with the hydroclimatic data (streamflow| temperature| precipitation) over the past century. Different statistic tests are used on hydroclimatic series and flood events to detect the trend observed. We note an important variability of hydrometric data series and the chronological flood events shows a significant trend in increased flooding in the last 100 years. 9382,2009,3,2,Hydrogen generation from biogas reforming using a gliding arc plasma-catalyst reformer,Biogas generated from landfills| wastewater disposal plants| wastes of livestock houses| etc.| causing global warming when released into the air. This study developed a GAPCR (Gliding Arc Plasma-Catalyst Reformer) which convert the biogas into higher percentage of hydrogen as low pollution recycling energy| reduced the global warming and environmental problems. This study also conducted tests for the different variables that affect the biogas reforming efficiency of the GAPCR| and presented the optimum operating conditions for high percentage of hydrogen generation. The parametric studies were carried out according to the change of steam to carbon ratio| catalyst bed temperature| total gas flow rate| input electric power| and biogas component ratio| i.e.| CH(4):CO(2). The hydrogen concentration increased up to specific limit| and then maintained almost constant values for the same steam to carbon ratio and catalyst bed temperature. Hydrogen percentage decreased with the increase in total gas flow rate but little bit increases with the increase in electric power. In terms of biogas component ratio| hydrogen concentration decreased with the increase of CO(2) amount. The optimum operating conditions showed the concentrations of 62% H(2)| 8% CO| 27% CO(2)| and 0.0% CH(4) on the basis of steam to carbon ratio of 3| catalyst bed temperature of 700 degrees C| total gas flow rate of 16 L/min| input electric power of 2.4 kW| and biogas component ratio of 6:4 (CH(4):CO(2)). At this condition. H(2) yield and H(2) selectivity were same values of 59%. Energy efficiency and specific energy requirement were 53% and 289 kJ/mol| respectively. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10263,2009,3,4,Hydrogen's role in an uncertain energy future,This study explores global energy demand| and hydrogen's role| over the 21st century. it considers four illustrative cases: a high (1000 EJ) and a low (300 EJ) energy future| and for each of these conditions| a high (80%) and low (20%) fossil fuel energy share. We argue that neither high energy future is probable| because of resource limitations| and rising energy| environmental and money costs per unit of delivered energy as annual energy demand rises far beyond present levels. The low energy/low fossil case is most likely| followed by the low energy/high fossil case| although both require large cuts in energy use| and most probably| lifestyle changes in high energy use countries. Hydrogen production would be best favoured in the low fossil fuel options| with production both greater| and implemented earlier| in the higher energy case| it is thus least likely in the low energy/high fossil fuel case. (C) 2008 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9381,2009,3,2,Hydrogeochemical modeling of a thermal system and lessons learned for CO(2) geologic storage,Geological storage of carbon dioxide is presently considered to be one of the main strategies to mitigate the impact of the emissions of this gas on global warming. Among the various alternatives considered for CO(2) geological storage| one of the main geological candidates for hosting injected CO(2) in the long term are deep porous reservoir rock formations saturated with brackish or saline solutions. Although valuable information on the expected hydrogeochemical processes involved in the CO(2) storage in such deep saline aquifers can be obtained in laboratory or modeling studies| the only direct source of information about the long-term behavior of geological storages for CO(2) in deep aquifers is natural analogues. In this work| a classical and simple geochemical methodology is successfully applied to the study of the features and hydrogeochemical processes determining the evolution of a Spanish thermal system (the Alhama-Jaraba complex)| which can be considered as a natural analogue for deep geological CO(2) storage in carbonate rocks. The geology| structure| depth and hydrogeochemistry of the Alhama-Jaraba thermal system are very similar to the expected features of a potential CO(2) reservoir in carbonate materials. The processes determining the hydrogeochemical evolution in the Alhama-Jaraba thermal system have been successfully identified and quantified with the assistance of ion-ion plots| speciation-solubility calculations and mass-balance calculations. Furthermore| the feasibility of the proposed conceptual hydrogeochemical model for this system has been verified by using reaction-path calculations. Mass-balance calculation results have indicated that the observed hydrogeochemical evolution between springs is mainly due to halite dissolution and dedolomitization triggered by gypsum or anhydrite dissolution. CO(2)(g) mass transfer has been estimated to be negligible| which suggests that the main processes responsible for the variation in the TIC and the CO(2)(g) pressure during deep circulation are dissolution and precipitation reactions for carbonate minerals. All the processes identified in the Alhama-Jaraba thermal system are relevant for the long-term evolution of a deep CO(2) storage site hosted by carbonate rocks. As shown in this study| the application of classical geochemical tools provides an excellent starting point for understanding the behavior of prospective storage systems. Moreover| the existence of dedolomitization is very relevant for the hydraulic properties of carbonate aquifers potentially used for CO(2) geological storage because of the effects on porosity and| therefore| permeability during the long-term evolution of such systems. Furthermore| dedolomitization may represent a mechanism of mineral trapping for CO(2) sequestration under certain conditions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10294,2009,2,4,Hydrologic response of the Greenland ice sheet: the role of oceanographic warming,The response of the Greenland ice sheet to ongoing climate change remains all area of great uncertainty with most previous studies having concentrated on the contribution of the atmosphere to the ice mass-balance signature. Here we systematically assess for the first time the influence of oceanographic changes on the ice sheet. The first part of this assessment involves a statistical analysis and interpretation of the relative changes and variations in sea-surface temperature (SSTs) and air temperatures around Greenland for the period 1870-2007. This analysis is based on HadISSTI and Reynolds OI.v2 SST analyses| in situ SST and deeper ocean temperature series| surface-air-temperature records for key points located around the Greenland coast. and examination of atmospheric pressure and geopotential height from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Second| we carried out a novel sensitivity experiment in which SSTs Were perturbed as input to it regional climate model. and document the resulting effects on simulated Greenland climate and Surface Mass balance. We Conclude that sea-surface/ocean temperature forcing is not sufficient to strongly influence precipitation/snow accumulation and melt/runoff of the ice sheet. Additional evidence front meteorological reanalysis suggests that high Greenland melt anomalies of summer 2007 are likely to have been primarily forced by anomalous advection of warm air masses over the ice sheet and to have therefore had a more remote atmospheric origin. However. there is a striking correspondence between ocean warming and dramatic accelerations and retreats of key Greenland outlet glaciers in both southeast and southwest Greenland during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 9615,2009,3,3,Hydropower - A Green Energy? Tropical Reservoirs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions,Reservoirs are man-made lakes that severely impact on river ecosystems| and in addition| the new lake ecosystem can be damaged by several processes. Thus| the benefits of a reservoir| including energy production and flood control| must be measured against their impact on nature. New investigations point out that shallow and tropical reservoirs have high emission rates of the greenhouse gases CO(2) and CH(4) The methane emissions contribute strongly to climate change because CH(4) has a 25 times higher global warming potential than CO(2). The pathways for its production include ebullition| diffuse emission via the water-air interface| and degassing in turbines and downstream of the reservoir in the spillway and the initial river stretch. Greenhouse gas emissions are promoted by a eutrophic state of the reservoir| and| with higher trophic levels| anaerobic conditions occur with the emission of CH(4). This means that a qualitative and quantitative jump in greenhouse gas emissions takes place. Available data from Petit Saut| French Guinea| provides a first quantification of these pathways. A simple evaluation of the global warming potential of a reservoir can be undertaken using the energy density| the ratio of the reservoir surface and the hydropower capacity; this parameter is mainly determined by the reservoir's morphometry but not by the hydropower capacity. Energy densities of some reservoirs are given and it is clearly seen that some reservoirs have a global warming potential higher than that of coal use for energy production. 10069,2009,3,4,Hydrothermal Gasification of Waste Biomass: Process Design and Life Cycle Asessment,A process evaluation methodology is presented that incorporates flowsheet mass and energy balance modeling| heat and power integration| and life cycle assessment. Environmental impacts are determined by characterizing and weighting (using CO(2) equivalents| Eco-indicator 99| and Eco-scarcity) the flowsheet and inventory modeling results. The methodology is applied to a waste biomass to synthetic natural gas (SNG) conversion process involving a catalytic hydrothermal gasification step. Several scenarios are constructed for different Swiss biomass feedstocks and different scales depending on logistical choices: large-scale (155 MW(SNG)) and small-scale (5.2 MW(SNG)) scenarios for a manure feedstock and one scenario (35.6 MW(SNG)) for a wood feedstock. Process modeling shows that 62% of the manure's lower heating value (LHV) is converted to SNG and 71% of wood's LHV is converted to SNG. Life cycle modeling shows that| for all processes| about 10% of fossil energy use is imbedded in the produced renewable SNG. Converting manure and replacing it| as a fertilizer| with the process mineral byproduct leads to reduced N(2)O emissions and an improved environmental performance such as global warming potential: -0.6 kg(CO2eq)/MJ(SNG) VS -0.02 kg(CO2eq)/MJ(SNG) for wood scenarios. 884,2009,2,4,Identifying Reefs of Hope and Hopeful Actions: Contextualizing Environmental| Ecological| and Social Parameters to Respond Effectively to Climate Change,Priorities for conservation| management| and associated activities will differ based on the interplay between nearness of ecosystems to full recovery from a disturbance (pristineness)| susceptibility to climate change (environmental susceptibility [ES])| and capacity of human communities to cope with and adapt to change (social adaptive capacity [AC]). We studied 24 human communities and adjacent coral reef ecosystems in 5 countries of the southwestern Indian Ocean. We used ecological measures of abundance and diversity of fishes and corals| estimated reef pristineness| and conducted socioeconomic household surveys to determine the AC of communities adjacent to selected coral reefs. We also used Web-based oceanographic and coral mortality data to predict each site's ES to climate warming. Coral reefs of Mauritius and eastern Madagascar had low ES and consequently were not predicted to be affected strongly by warm water| although these sites were differentiated by the AC of the human community. The higher AC in Mauritius may increase the chances for successful self-initiated recovery and protective management of reefs of this island. In contrast| Madagascar may require donor support to build AC as a prerequisite to preservation efforts. The Seychelles and Kenya had high ES| but their levels of AC and disturbance differed. The high AC in the Seychelles could be used to develop alternatives to dependence on coral reef resources and reduce the effects of climate change. Pristineness weighted toward measures of fish recovery was greatest for Kenya's marine protected areas; however| most protected areas in the region were far from pristine. Conservation priorities and actions with realistic chances for success require knowledge of where socioecological systems lie among the 3 axes of environment| ecology| and society. 9392,2009,4,2,Identifying Signatures of Natural Climate Variability in Time Series of Global-Mean Surface Temperature: Methodology and Insights,Global-mean surface temperature is affected by both natural variability and anthropogenic forcing. This study is concerned with identifying and removing from global-mean temperatures the signatures of natural climate variability over the period January 1900-March 2009. A series of simple| physically based methodologies are developed and applied to isolate the climate impacts of three known sources of natural variability: the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| variations in the advection of marine air masses over the high-latitude continents during winter| and aerosols injected into the stratosphere by explosive volcanic eruptions. After the effects of ENSO and high-latitude temperature advection are removed from the global-mean temperature record| the signatures of volcanic eruptions and changes in instrumentation become more clearly apparent. After the volcanic eruptions are subsequently filtered from the record| the residual time series reveals a nearly monotonic global warming pattern since similar to 1950. The results also reveal coupling between the land and ocean areas on the interannual time scale that transcends the effects of ENSO and volcanic eruptions. Globally averaged land and ocean temperatures are most strongly correlated when ocean leads land by; 2-3 months. These coupled fluctuations exhibit a complicated spatial signature with largest-amplitude sea surface temperature perturbations over the Atlantic Ocean. 9740,2009,4,4,Identifying target traits and molecular mechanisms for wheat breeding under a changing climate,Global warming is causing changes in temperature at a rate unmatched by any temperature change over the last 50 million years. Crop cultivars have been selected for optimal performance under the current climatic conditions. With global warming| characterized by shifts in weather patterns and increases in frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events| new ideotypes will be required with a different set of physiological traits. Severe pressure has been placed on breeders to produce new crop cultivars for a future| rapidly-changing environment that can only be predicted with a great degree of uncertainty and is not available in the present day for direct experiments or field trials. Mathematical modelling| therefore| in conjunction with crop genetics| represents a powerful tool to assist in the breeding process. In this review| drought and high temperature are considered as key stress factors with a high potential impact on crop yield that are associated with global warming| focusing on their effects on wheat. Modelling techniques are described which can help to quantify future threats to wheat growth under climate change and simple component traits that are amenable to genetic analysis are identified. This approach could be used to support breeding programmes for new wheat cultivars suitable for future environments brought about by the changing climate. 9394,2009,4,3,Identifying the Molecular Origin of Global Warming,We have investigated the physical characteristics of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to assess which properties are most important in determining the efficiency of a GHG. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)| hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)| perfluorocarbons (PFCs)| nitrogen fluorides| and various other known atmospheric trace molecules have been included in this study. Compounds containing the halogens F or Cl have in common very polar X-F or X-Cl bonds| particularly the X-F bonds. It is shown that as more F atoms bond to the same central atom the bond dipoles become larger as a result of the central atom becoming more positive. This leads to a linear increase in the total or integrated X-F bond dipole derivatives for the molecule| which leads to a nonlinear (quadratic) increase in infrared (IR) intensity. Moreover| virtually all of the X-F bond stretches occur in the atmospheric IR window as opposed to X-H stretches| which do not occur in the atmospheric window. It is concluded that molecules possessing several F atoms will always have a large radiative forcing parameter in the calculation of their global warming potential. Some of the implications for global warming and climate change are discussed. 10221,2009,2,3,Impact of anthropogenic ocean acidification on thermal tolerance of the spider crab Hyas araneus,Future scenarios for the oceans project combined developments of CO(2) accumulation and global warming and their impact on marine ecosystems. The synergistic impact of both factors was addressed by studying the effect of elevated CO(2) concentrations on thermal tolerance of the cold-eurythermal spider crab Hyas araneus from the population around Helgoland. Here ambient temperatures characterize the southernmost distribution limit of this species. Animals were exposed to present day normocapnia (380 ppm CO(2))| CO(2) levels expected towards 2100 (710 ppm) and beyond (3000 ppm). Heart rate and haemolymph PO(2) (P(e)O(2)) were measured during progressive short term cooling from 10 to 0 degrees C and during warming from 10 to 25 degrees C. An increase of P(e)O(2) occurred during cooling| the highest values being reached at 0 degrees C under all three CO(2) levels. Heart rate increased during warming until a critical temperature (T(c)) was reached. The putative T(c) under normocapnia was presumably > 25 degrees C| from where it fell to 23.5 degrees C under 710 ppm and then 21.1 degrees C under 3000 ppm. At the same time| thermal sensitivity| as seen in the Q(10) values of heart rate| rose with increasing CO(2) concentration in the warmth. Our results suggest a narrowing of the thermal window of Hyas araneus under moderate increases in CO(2) levels by exacerbation of the heat or cold induced oxygen and capacity limitation of thermal tolerance. 9379,2009,2,4,Impact of climate change on agriculture in Karnataka,Karnataka state is having the second largest rainfed agricultural area in the Country and food production mainly depending on the south-west monsoon. The State's mean annual rainfall is found to be in decreasing trend along with its sixteen years cyclic periodicity. The State first half century's (1901-1950) normal of 1204 mm has been reduced to 1140 mm during second half of the century (1951-2000). Nevertheless| few district like Bengaluru| Kolar and Tumkur are gaining in their mean annual rainfall and some traditionally heavy rainfall receiving districts like Kodagu| Chikmagalur and South Canara are loosing in their mean annual rainfall. The eastern districts of the state are tending to be more dependent on North East monsoon than terminal rains of the South West monsoon Consequently individual crop growing area growing period are changing. The normal sowing season rains are being delayed due to the shift of July rains to the August month and September peak rainfall is being shifted to October month. The maximum water available period for the grand growth period is shifting towards the end of September and beginning of October in many districts. finger millet crop area (main food crop of southern Karnataka) in Chikmagalur district| Groundnut area in Chitradurga and Tumkur districts| Red gram in Bidar and Gulbarga districts is increasing. Where as| Groundnut are| in Belgaum and Gulbarga districts and Red gram area in Belgam and Tumkur is decreasing. 9883,2009,2,4,Impact of climate change on runoff from a mid-latitude mountainous catchment in central Japan,Hydrologic balance in high-altitude| mid-latitude mountain areas is important in terms of the water resources available to associated lowlands. This study examined how current and historical shifts in precipitation (P) patterns and concurrent increases in temperature (T) affected runoff (Q) and other hydrologic components in a mid-latitude mountain catchment of central Japan| using a combination of long-term data and a simplified hydrologic model| along with their stochastic treatment. The availability of intensive meteorological and hydrological data from the period 1997-2001 allowed the derivation of key relationships for the Current climate that tie the forcing term to the parameters or state variables. By using the data recorded in the period 1965-2001| the force for driving the historical simulation was generated. Based on this model and historical shifts in P and T| the probability density functions of Q (pdf(Q)) was computed. A main novelty in this study is that such a stochastic representation| which is useful for considering the influence of projected shifts in environmental factors on the hydrologic budget| was provided. Despite the large increase in the rate of T in winter and spring| pdf(Q) in spring and summer varied appreciably during the time studied mainly because of all increase in snowmelt. An interannual change in whole-year Q was robust to shifts in T because while Q in spring increased| in summer it decreased| implying a crucial effect of global warming on mountain hydrologic regimes is change in the timing of Q. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 9582,2009,2,4,Impact of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg with a focus on nature conservation areas,Global warming impacts the water cycle not only by changing regional precipitation levels and temporal variability| but also by affecting water flows and soil moisture dynamics. In Brandenburg| increasing average annual temperature and decreasing precipitation in summer have already been observed. For this study| past trends and future effects of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg were investigated| considering regional and specific spatial impacts. Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) were focused on in particular. A decreasing trend in soil water content was shown for the past by analyzing simulation results from 1951 to 2003 using the integrated ecohydrological model SWIM [Krysanova| V.| Muller-Wohlfeil| D.-I.| Becker| A.| 1998. Development and test of a spatially distributed hydrological/water quality model for mesoscale watersheds. Ecol. Model. 106| 261-289]. The trend was statistically significant for some areas| but not for the entire region. Simulated soil water content was particularly low in the extremely dry year 2003. Comparisons of simulated trends in soil moisture dynamics with trends in the average annual Palmer Drought Severity Index for the region showed largely congruent patterns| though the modeled soil moisture trends are characterized by a much higher spatial resolution. Regionally downscaled climate change projections representing the range between wetter and drier realizations were used to evaluate future trends of available soil water. A further decrease of average available soil water ranging from -4% to -15% was projected for all climate realizations up to the middle of the 21 st century. An average decrease of more than 25 mm was simulated for 34% of the total area in the dry realization. Available soil water contents in SACs were generally higher and trends in soil moisture dynamics were lower mainly due to their favorable edaphic conditions. Stronger absolute and relative changes in the simulated trends for the past and future were shown for SACs within Brandenburg than for the state as a whole| indicating a high level of risk for many wetland areas. Nonetheless| soil water content in SACs is expected to remain higher than average under climate change conditions as well| and SACs therefore have an important buffer function under the projected climate change. They are thus essential for local climate and water regulation and their status as protected areas in Brandenburg should be preserved. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 805,2009,2,4,Impact of Clutch Relocation on Green Turtle Offspring,For species with temperature-dependent sex determination| such as marine turtles| global climate change poses numerous threats. At the nesting beach| rising temperatures are predicted to further skew already female-biased sex ratios and increase embryonic mortality; sea-level rise and resultant coastal squeeze may leave few alternative breeding habitats in developed regions. As a result| clutch relocation| a commonly used management tool to reduce egg loss| may become necessary for safeguarding populations. Although studies have examined the impact of relocation on clutch success| few have examined the impact of this practice on the sex or phenotypic characteristics of hatchlings produced. We used a randomized block design experiment to examine effects of relocation on green turtle (Chelonia mydas) clutches. We compared hatching success| thermal conditions| and size (length and mass) of hatchlings from in situ control clutches with those subjected to 2 relocation methods| while controlling for maternal and other environmental effects. Relocated clutches did not vary significantly from control clutches in incubation temperature or inferred sex ratios during the critical middle third of incubation when sex is thought to be determined. Hatchling size was also unaffected by relocation. Both relocation methods| however| resulted in a 20% reduction in hatching success in comparison to in situ clutches. Clutch relocation is| however| likely to affect the population primary sex ratio| when clutches are relocated from sites in proximity to the sea where tidal inundation is a threat. Here| cooler conditions are likely to produce more males than are the warmer female-producing temperatures higher up the beach. For clutches at risk| relocation is a viable process and does not appear to affect hatchling size or predicted sex ratios if relocation sites are selected in areas utilized by other females. We urge caution| however| when moving clutches from potentially male-producing sites| particularly given predicted impacts of climate change on already female-biased sex ratios. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 73(7): 1151-1157; 2009) 10169,2009,3,3,Impact of cofiring biomass with coal in power plants - A techno-economic assessment,Biomass cofiring in existing coal-fired boilers has emerged as a prospective option for voluntary reduction in CO(2) emissions to mitigate the global warming problem. However| the associated cost increase plays a crucial role for this retrofitting. A techno-economic model for the estimation of economics of cofiring is presented in this paper using the pilot plant test results for biomass cofiring and general heat and mass balance. A sensitivity analysis is carried out with this developed model to investigate the effects of different operating and logical parameters on the economics of biomass coal cofiring process. Significant results of this sensitivity analysis are also presented in this paper. The presented results may be useful for a plant owner to decide regarding the economic feasibility of retrofitting for biomass cofiring. On the other hand| it will also help to estimate the required incentives for this purpose. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10128,2009,4,4,Impact of decadal and century-scale oscillations on hydroclimate trend analyses,Studies of hydro-meteorological time series have identified decadal and inter-decadal oscillations with quasi-cyclic components as part of long-term natural variations in the data. Concerns over impacts of global warming and climate change have led to many studies of sustainable development and adaptation strategies| involving historic trend estimations in order to forecast future trends. This paper demonstrates the impacts of natural oscillations of quasi-cyclic components on the Mann-Kendal and Thiel-Sen tests| the most common methods used for analyzing data trends. Tests on synthetic and real instrumental hydroclimate records suggest that the Mann-Kendall and Thiel-Sen tests are sensitive to oscillations of quasi-cyclic components. Data record length relative to the periodicity of cycles| magnitude| and phase of the longest quasi-cyclic component are the three most important factors affecting these tests. If the length of the record is greater than three cycle lengths| the impact on the M-K and T-S tests should be minimal. Given the predominance of 45-60 year climate cycles observed in instrumental records| trend analyses of time series records <60 years should be done with caution. These results provide insight for appropriate temporal trend analyses of hydroclimate and associate time series. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 771,2009,2,4,Impact of experimental thermal amplitude on ectotherm performance: Adaptation to climate change variability?,Global climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity; one of the most important effects is increase in the mean earth surface temperature. However| another but poorly studied main effect of global change appears to be an increase in temperature variability. Most of the current analyses of global change have focused on mean values| paying less attention to the role of the fluctuations of environmental variables. We tested the effects of daily thermal amplitude with constant mean (24-24 degrees C| 27-21 degrees C and 32-16 degrees C) on different performance traits (rollover speed| body mass balance and survival) in populations of woodlouse (Porcellio laevis) from two altitudes. We observed that maximum performance showed a significant effect of population in the first but not in the fifth week| and only the population effect was significant for optimum temperature. Interestingly| populations under higher amplitude in environmental temperature exhibited higher resistance to a fluctuating climatic regime. We suggest that our results indicate that thermal variability may produce important effects on biodiversity. Therefore| in order to develop more realistic scenarios of global climate change effects on biodiversity| the effects of thermal variability as well as mean need to be examined simultaneously. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 9795,2009,3,3,Impact of geoengineered aerosols on the troposphere and stratosphere,A coupled chemistry climate model| the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model was used to perform a transient climate simulation to quantify the impact of geoengineered aerosols on atmospheric processes. In contrast to previous model studies| the impact on stratospheric chemistry| including heterogeneous chemistry in the polar regions| is considered in this simulation. In the geoengineering simulation| a constant stratospheric distribution of volcanic-sized| liquid sulfate aerosols is imposed in the period 2020-2050| corresponding to an injection of 2 Tg S/a. The aerosol cools the troposphere compared to a baseline simulation. Assuming an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario| global warming is delayed by about 40 years in the troposphere with respect to the baseline scenario. Large local changes of precipitation and temperatures may occur as a result of geoengineering. Comparison with simulations carried out with the Community Atmosphere Model indicates the importance of stratospheric processes for estimating the impact of stratospheric aerosols on the Earth's climate. Changes in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry| especially faster heterogeneous reactions| reduce the recovery of the ozone layer in middle and high latitudes for the Southern Hemisphere. In the geoengineering case| the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole is delayed by about 30 years on the basis of this model simulation. For the Northern Hemisphere| a onefold to twofold increase of the chemical ozone depletion occurs owing to a simulated stronger polar vortex and colder temperatures compared to the baseline simulation| in agreement with observational estimates. 9561,2009,2,4,Impact of global warming and crop factors on the growth and productivity of four cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) cultivars in Nigeria,The integrated effects of weather change (Global warming)| genotypic factors and cultivars on the growth and productivity of cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) were investigated in South-eastern Nigeria in 1999/2000 and 2000/2001 cropping seasons. Plant height (m)| number of roots and fresh root yields (t/ha) differed among the seasons in response to global warming and were dependent on a combined optimum rate of each individual treatment. The optimum plant height (m) obtained during the two seasons ranged from 2.0 to 2.1 M and were obtained by the interaction of TMS 30572 x 750 kg/ha stake weight x 3 shoots per stand. The highest fresh root yield of 28.0 and 13.6 t/ha were obtained by the interaction of cultivar NR 8082 x 875 kg stake weight x 3 shoots per stand. The combined analysis of variance for fresh root yields showed significant (P = 0.05) mean squares for cultivar| stake weight| number of shoots per stand and seasons (years). There was cultivar x stake weight x number of shoot x season interaction| indicating that the yields of the treatments responded differently relative to each other in different years. Higher plant height (2.1 m) and fresh root yield (28.0 t/ha) were obtained in 1999/2000 than in 2000/2001(1.9 m and 13.6 t/ha). Crop factors and weather change tremendously determined growth and productivity of cassava in Nigeria. Crop factors and weather were responsible for the variations in cassava yields in Nigeria. 10032,2009,2,4,Impact of global warming on agricultural product markets: stochastic world food model analysis,Climatic change through global warming and drought is a major issue for agricultural production. Most researchers who discuss the effects of such changes on agriculture report estimated yield changes based on crop process models. However| studies focusing on the impact of climatic change on agricultural product markets are very rare. This paper examines the relationship between climatic change and world food markets| i.e.| the supply and demand of crops| by using a stochastic version of a world food model| the International Food and Agricultural Policy Simulation Model. The results suggest that variations in the production of maize and soybeans in some major producing countries will be large| and variations in the producer prices of all crops will increase. Countries that suffer higher price risk because of high sensitivity to temperature fluctuations may need to consider changes in cropping patterns. 9578,2009,2,3,Impact of global warming on streamflow drought in Europe,Recent developments in climate modeling suggest that global warming is likely to favor conditions for the development of droughts in many regions of Europe. Studies evaluating possible changes in drought hazard typically have employed indices that are derived solely from climate variables such as temperature and precipitation| whereas many of the impacts of droughts are more related to hydrological variables such as river flow. This study examines the impact of global warming on streamflow drought in Europe by comparing low-flow predictions of a hydrological model driven by high-resolution regional climate simulations for the end of the previous century and for the end of this century based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario. For both time slices| low-flow characteristics were derived from the simulated streamflow series using extreme value analysis. More specifically| we employed the methods of block maxima and partial duration series to obtain minimum flows and flow deficits and fitted extreme value distributions by the maximum likelihood method. In order not to mix drought events with different physical causes the analysis was performed separately for the frost and nonfrost season. Results show that in the frost-free season streamflow droughts will become more severe and persistent in most parts of Europe by the end of this century| except in the most northern and northeastern regions. In the frost season| streamflow drought conditions will be of less importance under future climate conditions. 9802,2009,2,4,Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China,Climate change continues to have major impact on crop productivity all over the world. Many researchers have evaluated the possible impact of global warming on crop yields using mainly indirect crop simulation models. Here we use a 1979-2000 Chinese crop-specific panel dataset to investigate the climate impact on Chinese wheat yield growth. We find that a 1 degrees C increase in wheat growing season temperature reduces wheat yields by about 3-10%. This negative impact is less severe than those reported in other regions. Rising temperature over the past two decades accounts for a 4.5% decline in wheat yields in China while the majority of the wheat yield growth| 64%| comes from increased use of physical inputs. We emphasize the necessity of including such major influencing factors as physical inputs into the crop yield-climate function in order to have an accurate estimation of climate impact on crop yields. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9469,2009,2,4,Impact of irrigation on the South Asian summer monsoon,The Indian subcontinent is one of the most intensely irrigated regions of the world and state of the art climate models do not account for the representation of irrigation. Sensitivity studies with the regional climate model REMO show distinct feedbacks between the simulation of the monsoon circulation with and without irrigation processes. We find that the temperature and mean sea level pressure| where the standard REMO version without irrigation shows a significant bias over the areas of Indus basin| is highly sensitive to the water used for irrigation. In our sensitivity test we find that removal of this bias has caused less differential heating between land and sea masses. This in turns reduces the westerlies entering into land from Arabian Sea| hence creating conditions favorable for currents from Bay of Bengal to intrude deep into western India and Pakistan that have been unrealistically suppressed before. We conclude that the representation of irrigated water is unavoidable for realistic simulation of south Asian summer monsoon and its response under global warming. Citation: Saeed| F.| S. Hagemann| and D. Jacob (2009)| Impact of irrigation on the South Asian summer monsoon| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L20711| doi: 10.1029/2009GL040625. 1022,2009,2,4,IMPACT OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE ON ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IN LAKE QINGHAI WATERSHED| NORTHEAST QINGHAI-TIBET PLATEAU,Lake Qinghai| the largest saline lake in China| covers 4234 km(2) (2007) with a catchment area of 29 660 km(2) on the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The ecosystem of the lake is extremely vulnerable and sensitive to global climate change and human interference. However| little information is available on land use/cover change (LUCC) in Lake Qinghai watershed. Using a geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS)| this study analysed land use and land cover change pattern in Lake Qinghai watershed between 1977 and 2004 and discussed major environmental issues in this area. LUCC analysis indicated that grassland (63 per cent) and water body (18 per cent) dominated in the watershed and the magnitude of the land use and land cover change was generally low; the percentage of the change of various land types relative to the total area was less than I per cent. From 1977 to 2004| cropland| sandy land| bare rock| salinized land| swampland and built-up areas increased by 0.43| 0.35| 0.24| 0.06| 0.03 and 0.03 per cent of the total area| respectively; in contrast| water body| grassland and woodland decreased by 0.99| 0.22 and 0.05 per cent| respectively. Moreover| the area of LUCC tended to expand from places around the lake to the upper reaches of the watershed during the last three decades. The LUCC transition pattern was: woodland converted to grassland| grassland converted to cropland and water body converted to sandy land. Lake level decline and grassland degradation are major ecological and environmental problems in Lake Qinghai watershed. The level and area of the lake decreased at the rate of 6.7 cm a(-1) and 6.4 km(2) a(-1)| respectively| between 1959 and 2007| resulting in sandy land expansion and water quality deterioration. Lake level decline and area shrinkage was mainly attributed to climate change| but grassland degradation was mainly resulted from anthropogenic activities (increasing population| overgrazing and policy). Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 10226,2009,2,4,IMPACT OF LOCAL AIR TEMPERATURES ON THE BROOD SIZE IN STARLING (STURNUS VULGARIS L.),Many papers over recent years have demonstrated long-term temporal trends in biological parameters that can only be explained by global warming. I examined the long-term trends in the brood size of Starling (Sturnus vulgaris) in Mokrice area (north-western Croatia). I collected data from 1977 to 2007. To investigate the effect of spring temperatures on the brood size| local air temperature was used. The significant correlation (P <0.01) between mean brood size and the year (y = - 31.403 + 0.018x) indicates that brood size (mean number of nestlings per nest) increased by 0.018 nestling per year| or 0.54 nestling over the period of the study. Correlation between brood size (mean number of nestlings per nest) and mean spring temperature was also significant (P <0.05) and regression equation (y = 4.162 + 0.07x) indicates that brood size increased by 0.07 nestling per 1 degrees C. The correlation between mean spring air temperature and research year was significant (P <0.01). This data show that the mean May temperature has been increasing in the study area. We can conclude that Starlings in north-western Croatia are increasing their brood size and that the most likely cause is a long-term increase in spring temperatures. 9475,2009,2,4,Impact of naturally spawning captive-bred Atlantic salmon on wild populations: depressed recruitment and increased risk of climate-mediated extinction,The assessment report of the 4th International Panel on Climate Change confirms that global warming is strongly affecting biological systems and that 20-30% of species risk extinction from projected future increases in temperature. It is essential that any measures taken to conserve individual species and their constituent populations against climate-mediated declines are appropriate. The release of captive bred animals to augment wild populations is a widespread management strategy for many species but has proven controversial. Using a regression model based on a 37-year study of wild and sea ranched Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) spawning together in the wild| we show that the escape of captive bred animals into the wild can substantially depress recruitment and more specifically disrupt the capacity of natural populations to adapt to higher winter water temperatures associated with climate variability. We speculate the mechanisms underlying this seasonal response and suggest that an explanation based on bio-energetic processes with physiological responses synchronized by photoperiod is plausible. Furthermore| we predict| by running the model forward using projected future climate scenarios| that these cultured fish substantially increase the risk of extinction for the studied population within 20 generations. In contrast| we show that positive outcomes to climate change are possible if captive bred animals are prevented from breeding in the wild. Rather than imposing an additional genetic load on wild populations by releasing maladapted captive bred animals| we propose that conservation efforts should focus on optimizing conditions for adaptation to occur by reducing exploitation and protecting critical habitats. Our findings are likely to hold true for most poikilothermic species where captive breeding programmes are used in population management. 10033,2009,2,4,Impact of seasonally frozen soil on germinability and antioxidant enzyme activity of Picea asperata seeds,In the subalpine zone of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China| Dragon spruce (Picea asperata Mast.) is commonly used for reforestation. The aim of the present work was to study the effects of seasonally frozen soil on the germination of P. asperata seeds and to investigate whether these effects were associated with resumption of the antioxidant defense system. The nonfrozen treatment resulted in near failure of germination (1%) and was associated with relatively high levels of hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) and low activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD)| catalase (CAT)| and ascorbate peroxide (APX). Germination of P. asperata seeds at 10 cm under the seasonally frozen soil was higher than that at 5 cm by 26%; this higher germination rate was associated with the recovery of SOD| CAT| and APX activities. The levels of malondialdehyde (MDA) in seeds from seasonally frozen treatments were higher than those in the nonfrozen treatment| implying greater lipid peroxidation and that frozen seeds might have suffered from oxidative stress. The results indicate that seasonally frozen soil facilitated the germination of P. asperata seeds and that germination was closely related to the resumption of antioxidant enzymes activity. Overall| these findings suggest that the disappearance of seasonally frozen ground caused by global warming might result in failure of regeneration of P. asperata. 9601,2009,2,4,Impact of Temperature Variability on Cholera Incidence in Southeastern Africa| 1971-2006,Africa has a number of climate-sensitive diseases. One that remains a threat to public health is cholera. The aquatic environment temperature is the most important ecological parameter governing the survival and growth of Vibrio cholerae. Indeed| recent studies indicate that global warming might create a favorable environment for V. cholerae and increase its incidence in vulnerable areas. In light of this| a Poisson Regression Model has been used to analyze the possible association between the cholera rates in southeastern Africa and the annual variability of air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) at regional and hemispheric scales| for the period 1971-2006. The results showed a significant exponential increase of cholera rates in humans during the study period. In addition| it was found that the annual mean air temperature and SST at the local scale| as well as anomalies at hemispheric scales| had significant impact on the cholera incidence during the study period. Despite future uncertainty| the climate variability has to be considered in predicting further cholera outbreaks in Africa. This may help to promote better| more efficient preparedness. 815,2009,5,4,Impact of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum on deep-ocean microbenthic community structure: Using rank-abundance curves to quantify paleoecological response,Global climate change has often resulted in extinction events that can be quantitatively measured by taxonomic loss but are more difficult to assess in terms of ecological restructuring. We use a commonly applied ecological tool| rank-abundance curves (RACs)| to evaluate the ecological response of benthic foraminiferal and ostracode communities to the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum| which may be seen as an analog for current and future global warming. RACs are proxies for community structure| and therefore changes in the shape of RACs allow inferences to be drawn about and quantification of ecological responses. Benthic foraminiferal communities became increasingly stressed during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum| and community reorganization occurred before the taxonomically defined extinction horizon. In contrast| ostracode communities became less stressed during the same interval| reinforcing the idea that different groups of organisms respond differently to extinction events and global warming. The decoupling of ecologic impact from taxonomic impact during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum reaffirms the fact that future climate change could have far-reaching effects on taxa and ecosystems and proves the importance of examining both the taxonomic and ecologic responses of communities during extinction events. Abundance 10335,2009,2,4,Impact of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project on the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in China,The South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) is currently the key| national| water-conservation project in China| designed to optimise the use of water resources and relieve the water shortages in the north of the country. As one of the main water intakes for the project| that of the Eastern Route Scheme (ERS)| is a breeding site for Oncomelania hupensis (the intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum)| there is concern that the snail may be carried far to the north| in the water passing through the project. To see if they could survive and breed to the north of their current range in China| O. hupensis were collected in marshland near Nanjing City and transferred to cages| on the banks of fish ponds| in the cities of Zhenjiang (in Jiangsu province| at 32 degrees 10'N)| Xuzhou (in the same province but at a latitude of 34 degrees 23'N) and Jining (in Shandong province| at 35 degrees 23'N). Except over the first 6 months in Xuzhou| the snails moved north of their natural distribution did not survive and reproduce as well as those in Zhenjiang| and all those transferred to Jining died out within 1 year. Although the snail populations in Xuzhou survived for 7-8 years and retained their infectivity to S. japonicum| histological and histochemical studies revealed abnormalities in the reproductive organs of these snails. It is concluded that| unless global warming significantly increases the minimum winter temperatures in northern China| the SNWDP is unlikely to result in the northward spread of schistosomiasis japonica. 10385,2009,3,3,Impacts of a Carbon Dioxide Emissions Trading Scheme in German Road Transportation Mesoeconomic Analysis,To attempt to counter the possible impacts of global warming| the European Union decided to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and promised to reduce its carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions by 8%| compared with 1990 levels| by 2010. One of the policies that has been implemented to achieve this is the European Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) for CO(2) certificates. So far| the transportation sector| which contributes about 28% of European CO(2) emissions| has been exempt from ETS| although a further increase in CO(2) emissions from the transportation sector is expected in the coming years. Furthermore| this is the only sector in which emissions have increased (by about 32% since 1990). The inclusion of road transportation in ETS is feasible after 2012. A partial mesoeconomic model was used to assess the impacts of a CO(2) emissions trading scheme in German road transportation. A hypothetical CO(2) emissions trading scheme with an open alternative and a closed alternative was applied to the simulated German road transportation sector. The effects on certificate prices and fuel demand as a result of the individual reactions of households and freight forwarders were calculated. It became apparent that from the current perspective the willingness of households to pay for prestigious (but fuel-inefficient) cars is outweighed by technical mitigation costs in other sectors. Thus| in an open trading scheme without major changes in transportation demand| the main effect will be steady CO(2) emissions in road transportation but large payments to other sectors for mitigation. 932,2009,2,4,Impacts of an anomalously warm year on soil nitrogen availability in experimentally manipulated intact tallgrass prairie ecosystems,Global climate change can potentially increase the frequency of climate anomalies. Anomalously warm years may cause an increase in soil nitrogen (N) availability by stimulating N mineralization. To date| most studies addressing the effects of ecosystem warming have been conducted in relatively cold ecosystems and few studies have addressed impacts of interannual as opposed to continuous| multiyear warming. In this study| 12 intact soil monoliths were excavated from a tallgrass prairie site near Purcell| Oklahoma| USA and divided among four large flux chambers (EcoCELLs). During the first year| all four EcoCELLs were subjected to Oklahoma air temperatures and precipitation. During the second year| air temperature in two EcoCELLs was increased by 4 degrees C throughout the year resulting in an increase in soil temperature of 2.3 degrees C at 7.5 cm depth. During the third and fourth years| temperatures in the warmed EcoCELL returned back to 'normal' conditions. During the warming year| vegetation N content was not significantly affected by the warming treatment suggesting no change in N availability. Other N availability indicators (soil solution chemistry| leaching| and N adsorption by ion exchange resins) did not show any effect of warming. Soil solution| leaching| and ion exchange resins showed a large pulse of NH(4)(+) at the start of the study most likely due to disturbance caused by monolith excavation and transport but these effects were short-lived and had disappeared before the treatment started. The lack of a clear warming effect may be explained by a reduction in soil moisture in the warming treatments compared with the controls offsetting a potential stimulation of N mineralization in response to increased temperatures. As a result| effects of an anomalously warm year on N availability in warmer ecosystems may be small compared with colder ecosystems but are likely to depend on soil moisture status. 791,2009,2,4,Impacts of climate change on the seasonal distribution of migratory caribou,Arctic ecosystems are especially vulnerable to global climate change as temperature and precipitation regimes are altered. An ecologically and socially highly important northern terrestrial species that may be impacted by climate change is the caribou| Rangifer tarandus. We predicted the current and potential future occurrence of two migratory herds of caribou [Riviere George herd (RG) and Riviere-aux-Feuilles (RAF) herd] under a Canadian General Circulation Model climate change scenario| across all seasons in the Quebec-Labrador peninsula| using climatic and habitat predictor variables. Argos satellite-tracking collars have been deployed on 213 caribou between 1988 and 2003 with locations recorded every 4-5 days. In addition| we assembled a database of climate (temperature| precipitation| snowfall| timing and length of growing season) and habitat data obtained from the SPOT VEGETATION satellite sensor. Logistic regression models indicated that both climatic and physical habitat variables were significant predictors of current migratory caribou occurrence. Migratory caribou appeared to prefer regions with higher snowfall and lichen availability in the fall and winter. In the summer| caribou preferred cooler areas likely corresponding to a lower prevalence of insects| and they avoided disturbed and recently burnt areas. Climate change projections using climate data predicted an increased range for the RAF herd and decreased range for the RG herd during 2040-2069| limiting the herds to northeastern regions of the Quebec-Labrador peninsula. Direct and indirect consequences of climate change on these migratory caribou herds possibly include alteration in habitat use| migration patterns| foraging behaviour| and demography| in addition to social and economic stress to arctic and subarctic native human populations. 838,2009,2,3,Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources Availability and Agricultural Water Demand in the West Bank,Global climate change is predicted as a result of increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. It is predicted that climate change will result in increasing temperature by 2 to 6A degrees C and a possible reduction of precipitation of up to 16% in the Mediterranean basin. In this study| the West Bank is taken as a case study from the Mediterranean basin to evaluate the effects of such climate change on water resources availability and agricultural water demands. Due to the uncertainty in climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation| a number of scenarios for these impacts were assumed within the range of predicted changes. For temperature| three scenarios of 2| 4 and 6A degrees C increase were assumed. For precipitation| two scenarios of no change and 16% precipitation reduction were assumed. Based on these scenarios| monthly evapotranspiration and monthly precipitation excess depths were estimated at seven weather stations distributed over the different climatic and geographical areas of the West Bank. GIS spatial analyses showed that the increase in temperature predicted by climate change could potentially increase agricultural water demands by up to 17% and could also result in reducing annual groundwater recharge by up to 21% of existing values. However| the effects of reduced precipitation resulting from climate change are more enormous as a 16% reduction in precipitation could result in reducing annual groundwater recharge in the West Bank by about 30% of existing value. When this effect is combined with a 6A degrees C increase in temperature| the reduction in groundwater recharge could reach 50%. 9983,2009,2,4,Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales,The frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are likely to increase with global warming. However| it is not clear how these events might affect agricultural crops and whether yield losses resulting from severe droughts or heat stress will increase in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyse changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of two impact indices for wheat: the probability of heat stress around flowering and the severity of drought stress. To compute these indices| we used a wheat simulation model combined with high-resolution climate scenarios based on the output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model at 18 sites in England and Wales. Despite higher temperature and lower summer precipitation predicted in the UK for the 2050s| the impact of drought stress on simulated wheat yield is predicted to be smaller than that at present| because wheat will mature earlier in a warmer climate and avoid severe summer drought. However| the probability of heat stress around flowering that might result in considerable yield losses is predicted to increase significantly. Breeding strategies for the future climate might need to focus on wheat varieties tolerant to high temperature rather than to drought. 739,2009,2,4,Impacts of global warming on patterns of temperature change in China,Global climate change has a wide range of impacts| and this paper presents an investigation on how global warming has changed the relationship between air temperature and latitude & altitude using the meteorological data obtained from 160 stations in China. The investigation indicates that there are very distinct seasonal differences in patterns of temperature variation as a function of latitude and altitude: a very significant latitude effect in winter and a very significant altitude effect in summer. However| with global warming| the latitude effect in winter is weakening and the altitude effect in summer is strengthening. This pattern of change in the relationship between temperature and latitude & altitude is helpful in efforts to reconstruct and explain the past temperature patterns and variations. 9719,2009,3,4,Impacts of High-Pressure Diecasting Process Parameters on Greenhouse Gas Emissions,The impacts of some high-pressure diecasting (HPDC) process parameters on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are quantified using life cycle analysis (LCA) for both aluminum and magnesium alloys. The study was conducted according to ISO 14040 standards and was based on an automotive component made on cold-chamber HPDC machines operating in typical mass production environments. The aluminum alloy foundry was located in Australia; the magnesium alloy foundry was located in the United States. In both cases| emissions were found to reduce with an increasing HPDC process yield. However| yield variations had only a modest impact on GHG emissions in the aluminum alloy HPDC| due to the excellent in-plant recycling of the alloy and the relatively low emissions from primary aluminum production compared with primary magnesium production. In contrast| for the magnesium alloy| significant reductions in emissions were recorded as the yield increased. This outcome was attributed to the considerable savings achieved in raw material quantities sourced from high-emitting primary production and the use of lower amounts of SF(6)| a GHG with a very high global warming potential (GWP). These results were found to hold irrespective of changes to the ratio between the primary and secondary alloys in the raw material mix| although the magnitude of the impact was reduced considerably with reductions in the primary alloy component. In the case of the magnesium alloy HPDC| decreases in quality assurance (QA) rejects and cycle times were also found to contribute toward reduced emissions| although their influences were an order of magnitude lower than that of the yield improvements. 10258,2009,2,3,Implication of global warming on air-conditioned office buildings in Australia,As climate change will entail new conditions for the built environment| the thermal behaviour of air-conditioned office buildings may also change. Using building computer simulations| the impact of warmer weather is evaluated on the design and performance of air-conditioned office buildings in Australia| including the increased cooling loads and probable indoor temperature increases due to a possibly undersized air-conditioning system| as well as the possible change in energy use. It is found that existing office buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of year 2030 Low and High scenarios projections and the year 2070 Low scenario projection. However| for the 2070 High scenario| the study indicates that the existing office buildings in all capital cities of Australia would suffer from overheating problems. For existing buildings designed for current climate conditions| it is shown that there is a nearly linear correlation between the increase of average external air temperature and the increase of building cooling load. For the new buildings designed for warmer scenarios| a 28-59% increase of cooling capacity under the 2070 High scenario would be required. 9543,2009,2,4,Implication of nitric oxide in the heat-stress-induced cell death of the symbiotic alga Symbiodinium microadriaticum,One of the major consequences of global warming is a rise in sea surface temperature which may affect the survival of marine organisms including phytoplankton. Here| we provide experimental evidence for heat-induced cell death in a symbiotic microalga. Shifting Symbiodinium microadriaticum from 27 to 32A degrees C resulted in an increase in mortality| an increase in caspase 3-like activity| and an increase in nitric oxide (NO) production. The caspase-like activity was strongly correlated with the production of NO in thermally challenged microalgae. For this experiment| the application of Ac-DEVD-CHO| a mammalian caspase 3-specific inhibitor| partly prevented (by 65%) the increase in caspase-like activity. To verify the relationship between NO and the caspase-like activity| S. microadriaticum were subsequently incubated with 1.0 mM of the following chemical NO donors: sodium nitroprusside (SNP)| S-nitrosoglutathione (GSNO)| S-nitroso-N-acetylpenicillamine (SNAP) and 3|3bis(Aminoethyl)-1-hydroxy-2-oxo-1-triazene (NOC-18). The supplementation of both SNP and NOC-18 caused a significant increase in caspase-like activity compared to the control treatment. Pre-treatment of the microalgae with the inhibitor Ac-DEVD-CHO before the supplementation of the different NO donors completely prevented the increase in caspase-like activity. These results suggest that NO could play a role in the induction of cell death in heat-stressed S. microadriaticum by mediating an increase in caspase-like activity. 9482,2009,2,4,Implications of Both Statistical Equilibrium and Global Warming Simulations with CCSM3. Part I: On the Decadal Variability in the North Pacific Basin,In the low-resolution version of the Community Climate System Model| version 3 (CCSM3)| the modeled North Pacific decadal variability is demonstrated to be independent of the epoch for which a statistically steady control simulation is constructed| either preindustrial or modern; however| it is demonstrated to be significantly affected by the different global warming scenarios investigated. In the control simulations| the North Pacific basin is shown to be dominated by sea surface temperature (SST) variability with a time scale of approximately 20 yr. This mode of variability is in close accord with the observed characteristics of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). A detailed analysis of the statistical equilibrium runs is performed based on other model variables as well [sea surface salinity (SSS)| barotropic circulation| freshwater and heat fluxes| wind stress curl| sea ice| and snow coverage]. These analyses confirm that the underlying mechanism of the PDO involves a basin-scale mode of ocean adjustment to changes of the atmospheric forcing associated with the Aleutian low pressure system. However| they also suggest that the observed sign reversal of the PDO arises from a feedback in the northern part of the basin. In this novel hypothesis| the advection to the Bering Sea of "spice'' anomalies formed in the central and western Pacific sets up a typical 10-yr time scale for the triggering of the PDO reversal. In all of the global warming simulations described in this paper| the signal represented by the detrended SST variability in the North Pacific displays significant power at multidecadal frequencies. In these simulations| the natural North Pacific decadal variability| as characterized in the control simulations (the PDO)| remains the leading mode of variability only for moderate forcing. If the warming is too strong| then the typical 20-yr time scale of the canonical PDO can no longer be detected| except in terms of SSS variability and only prior to a significant change that occurs in the Bering Strait Throughflow. 9483,2009,2,2,Implications of Both Statistical Equilibrium and Global Warming Simulations with CCSM3. Part II: On the Multidecadal Variability in the North Atlantic Basin,The nature of the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic basin is investigated through detailed analysis of multicentury integrations performed using the low-resolution version of the Community Climate System Model| version 3 (CCSM3)| a modern atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Specifically| the results of control simulations under both preindustrial and present-day perpetual seasonal cycle conditions are compared to each other and also to the results of five simulations with increasing CO(2) concentration scenarios. In the absence of greenhouse gas-induced warming| the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) variability is shown to be dependent on the details of the simulation. In the present-day control simulation| the MOC is characterized by a broad spectrum of low frequencies| whereas| in preindustrial control simulations| MOC variability is characterized either by a well-defined periodicity of 60 yr or by a broad spectrum of low frequencies. In all the control simulations| the MOC appears to respond with a delay of 10 yr to synchronous temperature and salinity anomalies in the deep water formation sites located in the subpolar gyre| but salinity dominates the density anomalies. The explanation of the modeled MOC periodicity is therefore sought in the creation of these density anomalies. The influence of increased sea ice coverage under cold/preindustrial conditions is shown to modify the salinity variability| but it is not a sufficient condition for the support of the MOC periodicity. Instead| its source appears to be a modified subpolar gyre circulation resulting from interaction with the bottom bathymetry| which is able to sustain strong coupling between the horizontal and overturning circulations. Based on the global warming analyses| for the simulations initialized from the cold/preindustrial statistical equilibrium run| the North Atlantic variability continues to be dominated by strong coupling between the horizontal and overturning circulations if the imposed forcing is weak. More generally| the delayed response of the MOC to surface density anomalies in the deep water formation regions is preserved under weak forcing. 10259,2009,2,5,Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global Warming,Energy Security and Global Warming are analysed as 21st century sustainability threats. Best estimates of future energy availability are derived as an Energy Reference Case (ERC). An explicit economic growth model is used to interpret the impact of the ERC on economic growth. The model predicts a divergence from 20th century equilibrium conditions in economic growth and socioeconomic welfare is only stabilised under optimistic assumptions that demands a paradigm shift in contemporary economic thought and focused attention from policy makers. Fossil fuel depletion also constrains the maximum extent of Global Warming. Carbon emissions from the ERC comply nominally with the B1 scenario| which is the lowest emissions case considered by the IPCC. The IPCC predicts a temperature response within acceptance limits of the Global Warming debate for the B1 scenario. The carbon feedback cycle| used in the IPCC models| is shown as invalid for low-emissions scenarios and an alternative carbon cycle reduces the temperature response for the ERC considerably compared to the IPCC predictions. Our analysis proposes that the extent of Global Warming may be acceptable and preferable compared to the socio-economic consequences of not exploiting fossil fuel reserves to their full technical potential. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 938,2009,2,4,Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the twenty-first century,For most of the global land area poleward of about 40 degrees latitude| snow plays an important role in the water cycle. The (seasonal) timing of runoff in these areas is especially sensitive to projected losses of snowpack associated with warming trends| whereas projected (annual) runoff volume changes are primarily associated with precipitation changes. and to a lesser extent| with changes in evapotranspiration (ET). Regional studies in the USA (and especially the western USA) suggest that hydrologic adjustments to a warming climate have been ongoing since the mid-twentieth century. We extend the insights extracted from the western USA to the global scale using a physically based hydrologic model to assess the effects of systematic changes in precipitation and temperature on snow-affected portions of the global land area as projected by a suite of global climate models. While annual (and in some cases seasonal) changes in precipitation are a key driver of projected changes in annual runoff| we find| as in the western USA| that projected warming produces strong decreases in winter snow accumulation and spring snowmelt over much of the affected area regardless of precipitation change. Decreased snowpack produces decreases in warm-season runoff in many mid- to high-latitude areas where precipitation changes are either moderately positive or negative in the future projections. Exceptions| however| occur in some high-latitude areas| particular in Eurasia| where changes in projected precipitation are large enough to result in increased| rather than decreased| snow accumulation. Overall| projected changes in snowpack and the timing of snowmelt-derived runoff are largest near the boundaries of the areas that currently experience substantial snowfall| and at least qualitatively| they mirror the character of observed changes in the western USA. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 918,2009,4,4,Importance of land use versus atmospheric information verified from cloud simulations from a frontier region in Costa Rica,Land-use/land-cover (LULC) change has been recognized as a key component in global climate change| and numerous climate modeling studies at regional to global scales document this. The research strategies have invariably been to first conduct baseline simulations of current conditions to evaluate model performance. Then simulation of regional climate with land cover changes (LCC) implemented within the model allows differences with the baseline simulation to be used as evidence of global to regional-scale climate impacts of LCC. However| even state-of-the-art regional climate models require two data sets to conduct reasonable baseline simulations. These are representative current land cover and atmospheric information over the study region. In frontier and developing areas (where most of the rapid land-use conversion is taking place)| these data sets are frequently unavailable and the errors in simulations are due to either inaccurate land cover| insufficient atmospheric information| nonrepresentative model physics| or a combination of one or more of the above. This study shows that in one frontier region| that surrounding the Cordillera de Tilaran of Costa Rica| the accuracy of simulating clouds decreases by 1% to 3% if default model land cover information is used. If the atmospheric data sets used are the ones usually available to researchers (with land cover information held constant)| then the model accuracy is reduced by 21% to 25%. Model runs without updated land cover or atmospheric information reduce model accuracy slightly further. Precipitation comparisons also provide similar results. This study thus shows that the critically important data set for conducting accurate simulations is not land cover information but atmospheric information. Researchers may similarly get significant increase in the accuracy of their baseline simulations elsewhere by using radiosondes/rawinsondes over their study region. Finally| since atmospheric information is not available for different landscape scenarios| assessments of the relative role of LULC change will have to continue to rely on using the standard atmospheric data set and the acceptance that the use of more detailed atmospheric data to initialize and provide lateral boundary conditions would have reduced the uncertainties in such landscape sensitivity studies. 9451,2009,2,4,Importation of tropical diseases to europe via animals and animal products: risks and pathways,Importation of tropical infectious diseases to Europe via animals and animal products. Most emerging and resurgent diseases observed in France in recent decades have been zoonoses| and some have caused unprecedented health crises. The growing international trade in domestic and wild animals and foodstuffs of animal origin is contributing to the emergence or resurgence of such zoonoses| along with accidental or deliberate introduction of certain species into new geographical areas| and the recent craze for exotic pets. Thus| in France| we have witnessed the introduction and sometimes the establishment of new diseases through insect vectors (e.g. bluetongue)| foodstuffs of animal origin intended for human or animal consumption (e.g. bovine spongiform encephalopathy and trichinellosis)| and diseased or asymptomatically infected animals. This is notably the case of the highly pathogenic influenza virus subtype H5N1 carried by poultry and wild birds| and also pathogens carried by imported pet species (e.g. rabid dogs illegally imported from Morocco| and pet rats infected with cowpox virus). Globalization and global warming will also favor the emergence of new tropical diseases in Europe| and especially African diseases such as Rift Valley fever. Finally| it should be remembered that some diseases with potentially severe economic consequences have disappeared from Europe while remaining active on other continents. This is the case of rinderpest| for example| which led to the creation of the first veterinary school in the world ( in Lyon| France) nearly 250 years ago| and which has now been eradicated from Europe.
10036,2009,2,4,Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system,Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation| the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets| the Amazon rainforest and ENSO| are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty| they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2-4 degrees C) and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 degrees C) relative to year 2000 levels. 818,2009,2,2,Improved water quality can ameliorate effects of climate change on corals,The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic climate change are widely known. Moreover| rates of genetic adaptation and/or changes in the coral-zooxanthella partnerships are considered unlikely to be sufficiently fast for corals to acquire increased physiological resistance to increasing sea temperatures and declining pH. However| it has been suggested that coral reef resilience to climate change may be improved by good local management of coral reefs| including management of water quality. Here| using major data sets from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR)| Australia| we investigate geographic patterns of coral bleaching in 1998 and 2002 and outline a synergism between heat stress and nutrient flux as a major causative mechanism for those patterns. The study provides the first concrete evidence for the oft-expressed belief that improved coral reef management will increase the regional-scale survival prospects of coral reefs to global climate change. 10326,2009,3,2,IMPROVEMENT OF CaO-BASED SORBENT PERFORMANCE FOR CO(2) LOOPING CYCLES,This paper presents research on CO(2) capture by lime-based looping cycles. This is a new and promising technology that may help in mitigation of global warming and climate change caused primarily by the use of fossil fuels. The intensity of the anticipated changes urgently requires solutions such as the developing technologies for CO(2) capture| especially those based on CaO looping cycles. This technology is at the pilot plant demonstration stage and there are still significant challenges that require solutions. The technology is based on a dual fluidized bed reactor This contains a carbonator - a unilfor CO(2) capture| and a calciner - a unit for CaO regeneration. The major technology components are well known from other technologies and easily applicable. However| even though CaO is a very good candidate as a solid CO(2) carrier| its performance in a practical| system still has significant limitations. Thus| research on CaO performance is critical and this paper discusses some of the more important problems and potential solutions that are being examined at CETC-O. 9409,2009,2,4,In situ/on-farm conservation of crop biodiversity,Agrobiodiversity conservation should be the basic component of any national agricultural improvement programme. Programmes that manage agricultural genetic resources need to reconsider their strategies. Conservation based on genebanks (ex situ conservation) must be broadened and be integrated with on-farm/in situ conservation to be able to conserve much large species and genetic diversity than would otherwise be possible. In situ conservation of agricultural biodiversity (crop and related species diversity) must be made an integral part of agricultural development and supplemented by ex situ conservation. It is obvious that the public sector will have to take the lead in implementing such a comprehensive approach| in which the private sector has an important supportive role. National and intergovernmental laws and regulations will have to provide the necessary legal framework. Civil society organisations (CSOs) as well as the private sector are becoming increasingly important in filling this framework with development reality on the ground. There is a great need for us to adapt to changing conditions accepting realities of climate change| which is a complex task and requires much research as much is unknown. We are in early stages of understanding the changing rules of the game| but I believe there is sufficient experience and diverse resources available to deal with the situation on short term basis| but for long term solutions further research is needed. Complacency should be out and we need to be strategic and need to involve several stakeholders and plan early and systematically. Some amount of crystal gazing and innovation (that may or may not seem right| right now). That means we need to be flexible and be able to change fast when situation demands. 9727,2009,4,3,In-situ measurements of the mixing state and optical properties of soot with implications for radiative forcing estimates,Our ability to predict how global temperatures will change in the future is currently limited by the large uncertainties associated with aerosols. Soot aerosols represent a major research focus as they influence climate by absorbing incoming solar radiation resulting in a highly uncertain warming effect. The uncertainty stems from the fact that the actual amount soot warms our atmosphere strongly depends on the manner and degree in which it is mixed with other species| a property referred to as mixing state. In global models and inferences from atmospheric heating measurements| soot radiative forcing estimates currently differ by a factor of 6| ranging between 0.2-1.2 W/m(2)| making soot second only to CO(2) in terms of global warming potential. This article reports coupled in situ measurements of the size-resolved mixing state| optical properties| and aging timescales for soot particles. Fresh fractal soot particles dominate the measured absorption during peak traffic periods (6-9 AM local time). Immediately after sunrise| soot particles begin to age by developing a coating of secondary species including sulfate| ammonium| organics| nitrate| and water. Based on these direct measurements| the core-shell arrangement results in a maximum absorption enhancement of 1.6 x over fresh soot. These atmospheric observations help explain the larger values for soot forcing measured by others and will be used to obtain closure in optical property measurements to reduce one of the largest remaining uncertainties in climate change. 9438,2009,4,4,Incineration and co-combustion of waste: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions,Important greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to waste incineration and co-combustion of waste were identified and considered relative to critical aspects such as: the contents of biogenic and fossil carbon| N(2)O emissions| fuel and material consumptions at the plants| energy recovery| and solid residues generated. GHG contributions were categorized with respect to direct emissions from the combustion plant as well as indirect upstream contributions (e.g. provision of fuels and materials) and indirect downstream contributions (e.g. substitution of electricity and heat produced elsewhere). GHG accounting was done per tonne of waste received at the plant. The content of fossil carbon in the input waste| for example as plastic| was found to be critical for the overall level of the GHG emissions| but also the energy conversion efficiencies were essential. The emission factors for electricity provision (also substituted electricity) affected the indirect downstream emissions with a factor of 3-9 depending on the type of electricity generation assumed. Provision of auxiliary fuels| materials and resources corresponded to up to 40% of the direct emission from the plants (which were 347-371 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of waste for incineration and 735-803 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of waste for co-combustion). Indirect downstream savings were within the range of -480 to -1373 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of waste for incineration and within -181 to -2607 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of waste for co-combustion. N(2)O emissions and residue management did not appear to play significant roles. 9884,2009,3,3,Incorporating methane into ecological footprint analysis: A case study of Ireland,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) accounting is important to global ecological footprint analysis. However methane (CH(4))| with a global warming potential (GWP) 25 times that of CO(2)| should not be neglected as an environmental indicator for informed environmental management. While this is a significant component| the CH(4) associated with imported embodied energy should also be included in national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. This study proposes an initial method for incorporating methane into ecological footprint analyses and hopes to inform future debate on its inclusion. In order to account for differences in methane intensities from exporting countries| methane intensities for OECD countries were calculated using emission and energy consumption estimates taken directly from National Inventory Reports (NIR)| published in conjunction with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For other countries the methane intensities were estimated using energy balances published by the International Energy Association (IEA) and IPCC default emission factors. In order to estimate embodied organic methane| material imports and exports were translated into units (such as live animals) capable of conversion into methane emissions. A significant increase in Ireland's footprint results from the inclusion of the GWP of methane is included within the footprint calculation. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 931,2009,3,3,Increase in soil organic carbon stock over the last two decades in China's Jiangsu Province,Estimates of regional and national topsoil soil organic carbon (SOC) stock change may help evaluating the soil role in mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through carbon (C) sequestration in soils. However| understanding of the exact mitigation role is often constrained by the uncertainty of the stock estimation associated with different methodologies. In this paper| a soil database of topsoil (0-20 cm) SOC measurements of Jiangsu Province| China| obtained from a soil survey in 1982| and from a geological survey in 2004| was used to analyze the variability of topsoil SOC among soil groups and among soil regions| and to estimate the change in SOC stocks that have occurred in the province over the last two decades. The soil survey data was obtained from measurements of 662 690 randomly collected samples| while the geological survey data was from 24 167 samples taken using a 2 km x 2 km grid. Statistical analysis was conducted on SOC values for 1982 and 2004 for different categories of soil groups| soil regions| and administrative municipalities| respectively. Topsoil SOC storage was then calculated and the provincial topsoil SOC stock was estimated for each sampling time. There were remarkable differences in SOC levels between soil groups and soil regions and different municipalities. The grid sampling with the geological survey in 2004 yielded smaller variability of topsoil SOC averages| both with soil groups and with soil spatial distribution than the random sampling method used in 1982. Variation of SOC was greater with soil groups than with soil regions in both sampling times| although it was less variable across soil taxonomic categories than within a spatial category. Little variance of the SOC level with soil groups could be explained by clay content. However| the prevalence of paddy fields in the total cropland area governed the regional and municipal average SOC levels. The average provincial topsoil SOC content increased from 9.45 g kg(-1) in 1982 to 10.9 g kg(-1) in 2004| and the total provincial topsoil SOC stock was enhanced from 149.0 +/- 58.1 Tg C in 1982 to 173.2 +/- 51.4 Tg C in 2004| corresponding to a provincial average SOC sequestration rate of 0.16 +/- 0.09 t C ha(-1) yr(-1). The SOC sequestration trend for the last two decades could be| in part| attributed to the enhanced agricultural production| symbolized by the grain yield per hectare. The results of SOC stock changes suggest a significant C sequestration in soils of Jiangsu| China| during 1980-2000| with paddy management playing an important role in regional SOC storage and sequestration capacity. 9714,2009,2,4,Increased early growth rates decrease longevities of conifers in subalpine forests,For trees| fast growth rates and large size seem to be a fitness benefit because of increased competitiveness| attainment of reproductive size earlier| reduction of generation times| and increased short-term survival chances. However| fast growth rates and large size entail reduced investment in defenses| lower wood density and mechanical strength| increased hydraulic resistance as well as problems with down-regulation of growth during periods of stress| all of which may decrease tree longevity. In this study| we investigated the relationship between longevity and growth rates of trees and quantified effects of spatial environmental variation (elevation| slope steepness| aspect| soil depth) on tree longevity. Radial growth rates and longevities were determined from tree-ring samples of 161 dead trees from three conifer species in subalpine forests of the Colorado Rocky Mountains (Abies lasiocarpa| Picea engelmannii) and the Swiss Alps (Picea abies). For all three species| we found an apparent tradeoff between growth rate to the age of 50 years and longevity (i.e. fast early growth is associated with decreased longevity). This association was particularly pronounced for larger P. engelmannii and P. abies| which attained canopy size| however| there were also significant effects for smaller P. engelmannii and P. abies. For the more shade-tolerant A. lasiocarpa| tree size did not have any effect. Among the abiotic variables tested only northerly aspect significantly favored longevity of A. lasiocarpa and P. engelmannii. Trees growing on south-facing aspects probably experience greater water deficits leading to premature tree death| and/or shorter life spans may reflect shorter fire intervals on these more xeric aspects. Empirical evidence from other studies has shown that global warming affects growth rates of trees over large spatial and temporal scales. For moist-cool subalpine forests| we hypothesize that the higher growth rates associated with global warming may in turn result in reduced tree longevity and more rapid turnover rates. 9585,2009,2,4,Increases in air temperature can promote wind-driven dispersal and spread of plants,Long-distance dispersal (LDD) of seeds and pollen shapes the spatial dynamics of plant genotypes| populations and communities. Quantifying LDD is thus important for predicting the future dynamics of plants exposed to environmental changes. However| environmental changes can also alter the behaviour of LDD vectors: for instance| increasing air temperature may enhance atmospheric instability| thereby altering the turbulent airflow that transports seed and pollen. Here| we investigate temperature effects on wind dispersal in a boreal forest using a 10-year time series of micrometeorological measurements and a Lagrangian stochastic model for particle transport. For a wide range of dispersal and life history types| we found positive relations between air temperature and LDD. This translates into a largely consistent positive effect of +3 degrees C warming on predicted LDD frequencies and spread rates of plants. Relative increases in LDD frequency tend to be higher for heavy-seeded plants| whereas absolute increases in LDD and spread rates are higher for light-seeded plants for which wind is often an important dispersal vector. While these predicted increases are not sufficient to compensate forecasted range losses and environmental changes can alter plant spread in various ways| our results generally suggest that warming can promote wind-driven movements of plant genotypes and populations in boreal forests. 9925,2009,2,4,Increasing insect reactions in Alaska: Is this related to changing climate?,In 2006| Fairbanks| AK| reported its first cases of fatal anaphylaxis as a result of Hymenoptera stings concurrent with an increase in insect reactions observed throughout the state. This study was designed to determine whether Alaska medical visits for insect reactions have increased. We conducted a retrospective review of three independent patient databases in Alaska to identify trends of patients seeking medical care for adverse reactions after insect-related events. For each database| an insect reaction was defined as a claim for the International Classification of Diseases| Ninth Edition (ICD-9)| codes E9053| E906.4| and 989.5. Increases in insect reactions in each region were compared with temperature changes in the same region. Each database revealed a statistically significant trend in patients seeking care for insect reactions. Fairbanks Memorial Hospital Emergency Department reported a fourfold increase in patients in 2006 compared with previous years (1992-2005). The Allergy| Asthma| and Immunology Center of Alaska reported a threefold increase in patients front 1999 to 2002 to 2003 to 2007. A retrospective review of the Alaska Medicaid database from 1999 to 2006 showed increases in medical claims for insect reactions among all regions| with the largest percentage of increases occurring in the host northern areas. Increases in insect reactions in Alaska have occurred after increases in annual and winter temperatures| and these findings may be causally related. 10107,2009,2,4,Increasing southern invasion enhances congruence between endemic and exotic Mediterranean fish fauna,Species movements in relation with global warming may increase the spatial overlap between exotic and endemic species| which is a critical issue for the conservation of biodiversity. The Mediterranean Sea| which is a receptacle for exotic species while being a hotspot for endemism| provides exceptional material for a case study. The aim of our study was to quantify (i) the increasing invasion from southern fish exotic species (Red Sea and Atlantic Ocean) that the Mediterranean biota is experiencing and (ii) the spatial overlap between exotic and endemic Mediterranean fish fauna following the northward movement of exotic species within the Mediterranean Sea in the context of global warming. The historical invasion dynamic of exotic fish species and the sea surface temperature series were reconstructed from 1810 to 2006 in order to estimate the correlation between invasion rate and climate. The geographical distributions of exotic and endemic fish richness before and after the period of global warming were used to assess the dynamic of spatial congruence. The results revealed (i) an acceleration of successful introductions from the Red Sea and (ii) the introduction of Atlantic species from lower latitudes in correlation with the increasing temperature of the Mediterranean Sea. We also showed an increasing overlap between the spatial distributions of endemic and exotic species richness. Taken together| our results suggest that endemic fish species are facing a growing number of exotic species because the Mediterranean Sea is acting as a catchment basin for southern species. 10254,2009,2,4,Increasing temperature counteracts the impact of parasitism on periwinkle consumption,Parasites often have key structuring roles in natural communities. For instance| trematode infections significantly reduce consumption by the herbivorous gastropod Littorina littorea| in turn affecting the composition of coastal macroalgal communities on which the snail grazes. However| trematodes are extremely sensitive to temperature changes| in that production and release of infective stages (cercariae) from the snail host are strongly accelerated by increasing temperature. Hence| trematode-infected periwinkles may increase their rates of consumption under warmer conditions to support the additional energetic burden exerted through elevated cercarial shedding. We therefore hypothesized that the combined effect of higher temperatures and parasitism may neutralize the negative impact trematodes otherwise have on periwinkle consumption. To test this| we performed a microcosm experiment examining the combined effect of infection and temperature on the snails' consumption of the green macroalgae Ulva lactuca. Our results show an overall positive effect of temperature on consumption by larger periwinkles| but particularly so in trematode-infected specimens. Whereas infected snails consumed less than uninfected ones at 18 degrees C| no difference was evident at 21 degrees C. Hence| the synergy between parasitism and a relevant temperature increase| e.g. in lieu of expected global warming within this century (3 degrees C)| may indeed counteract the generally negative impact of trematodes on periwinkle grazing. 9734,2009,4,4,Indicator of flower status derived from in situ hyperspectral measurement in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau,Flowering status including flowering date and flower amount could reflect ecological process in assessing plant phenological response to global warming. However| little information is available so far for monitoring flowering status through remote sensing. To provide an ecological indicator for monitoring plant phenology from remotely sensed data| we conducted a field survey in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau where flower color in July is dominantly yellow due to flowering of Halerpestes tricuspis (Ranunculaceae). We used flower coverage to indicate the flowering status of this species and proposed a flower index derived from in situ hyperspectral data (HFI) to estimate the flower coverage. Results demonstrate that the flower coverage of H. tricuspis can be estimated with high accuracy from the hyperspectral measurements. The indicating ability was further improved when the flower coverage was higher than 0.10 or the fractional coverage of soil was low or known in advance. A simulation also shows that a quadrat or pixel with flower coverage higher than 0.066 can be detected with existence of flower by HFI if soil fraction is less than 50%. These results indicate that HFI is applicable for estimating flower coverage of this species from hyperspectral measurement. The study suggests that the hyperspectral remote sensing technique can be applied for monitoring flowering status| and therefore the technique can provide an important ecological indicator for monitoring plant phenology. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10112,2009,2,4,Indicators of present global warming through changes in active layer-thickness| estimation of thermal diffusivity and geomorphological observations in the Morenas Coloradas rockglacier| Central Andes of Mendoza| Argentina,Temperature profiles from the active layer have been analysed for 2 sites on the composed rockglacier Morenas Coloraclas. Cordon del Plata| Mendoza| Argentina| using monitoring data collected between 1989 and 2008 in order to characterize the impact of global warming in the cryolithozone of the Dry Andes at these latitudes (32 degrees-33 degrees S). A significant change in the active layer and suprapermafrost of this rockglacier of the Cordon del Plata is registered at the monitoring sites. The observed changes imply direct consequences for the cryogenic environment and the Andean creeping permafrost. The nose of the Morenas Coloradas rockglacier for example (Balcon I| 3560 m a.s.l.)| already expresses inactivity; the permafrost table is found at great depth (7.5-9 m). Data collected at Balcon I and II allow to estimate the theoretical thermal diffusivity alpha at the active layer of Morenas Coloraclas. Thermal diffusivity may be decisive for the study of cryogenic dynamics at other altitudes and latitudes in the region where data are still scarce. Low alpha values (<0.2 x 10(-6)m(2)/s) correlate with occurrence of freezing and ice at low altitudes. While the glaciers are turning into small insignificant bodies in the high mountains| the periglacial level with creeping permafrost and linked with rockglaciers is expanding altitudinally| passing a transitional "rooting" area which is indirectly feeding the rockglaciers with their covered or "dead ice". The ice of glacigenic origin contributes to the genesis of this type of permafrost. As the permafrost table is found at greater depths| the rockglaciers need to be monitored in order to define a balance between the upper periglacial level (in terms of altitude) with mountain continuous-quasi continuous permafrost and the lower periglacial level to where the lowest fronts of creeping permafrost are reaching. The variations of the cryogenic structure of the rockglaciers of the Cordon del Plata caused by warming processes| will have direct consequences for the volume of frozen sediments and therefore for the hydrology of the entire region| a fact that has to be taken into account for future socio-economic programs of the respective provincial governments. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 826,2009,3,3,Indicators on Economic Risk from Global Climate Change,Climate change mitigation requires a rapid decrease of global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from their present value of 8.4 GtC/year to| as of current knowledge| approximately 1 GtC/year by the end of the century. The necessary decrease of GHG emissions will have large impacts on existing and new investments with long lifetimes| such as coal-fired power plants or buildings. Strategic decision making for major investments can be facilitated by indicators that express the likelihood of costly retrofitting or shut-down of carbon intensive equipment over time. We provide a set of simple indicators that Support assessment and decision making in this field. Given a certain emissions target| carbon allowance prices in a cap-and-trade plan will depend on the development of the global economy and the degree to which the target is approached on the global and national levels. The indicators measure the degree to which a given emissions target is approached nationally and assess risks for long-lived investments subject to a range of emissions targets. A comparative case study on existing coal-fired power plants with planned plants and Utility-scale photovoltaic power-plants confirms that high risk for coal-fired power plants is emerging. New legislation further confirms this result. 803,2009,2,4,Individual responses in spring arrival date to ecological conditions during winter and migration in a migratory bird,P>1. We studied lifetime arrival patterns in the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica L.) in relation to variation in ecological conditions| as reflected by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Sub-Saharan winter quarters and at stopover sites in North Africa. 2. Migratory birds have recently advanced their arrival dates| but the relative role of microevolution and phenotypic plasticity as mechanisms of response to changing environmental conditions remains unknown. To distinguish between these two possibilities| we investigated the change in the arrival date using cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. 3. We predicted that the effect (i.e. slopes) of environmental conditions in stopover or winter areas on arrival date should be similar using cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses in case phenotypic plasticity is the underlying mechanism| or they should differ in case microevolution is the mechanism. 4. As expected according to a previous cross-sectional study| we found an advance in the arrival date when ecological conditions improve in stopover areas and a delay in the arrival date when ecological conditions improve in the winter quarters. 5. Change in the arrival time at the breeding grounds due to ecological conditions found en route and| in the winter areas| was mainly due to phenotypic plasticity as shown by similarities in the slopes found in these relationships using cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. 6. We also investigated sex and age of barns swallows as sources of variation in the arrival time with respect to conditions experienced in winter and stopover areas. We found that earlier arrival at the breeding grounds due to prevailing ecological conditions found en route in North Africa was similar for males and females of all age-classes. In contrast| individuals tended to delay departure when ecological conditions improved in the winter quarters| but this delay differed among age classes| with old individuals delaying departure more than middle-aged and yearling birds. 7. The migratory response of individuals to changing climatic conditions experienced during different parts of their life provides evidence for individuals responding differently to prevailing conditions in the winter quarters depending on their age| but not to conditions experienced en route during spring migration. 896,2009,2,4,Inducible defences as key adaptations for the successful invasion of Daphnia lumholtzi in North America?,The mechanisms underlying successful biological invasions often remain unclear. In the case of the tropical water flea Daphnia lumholtzi| which invaded North America| it has been suggested that this species possesses a high thermal tolerance| which in the course of global climate change promotes its establishment and rapid spread. However| D. lumholtzi has an additional remarkable feature: it is the only water flea that forms rigid head spines in response to chemicals released in the presence of fishes. These morphologically (phenotypically) plastic traits serve as an inducible defence against these predators. Here| we show in controlled mesocosm experiments that the native North American species Daphnia pulicaria is competitively superior to D. lumholtzi in the absence of predators. However| in the presence of fish predation the invasive species formed its defences and became dominant. This observation of a predator-mediated switch in dominance suggests that the inducible defence against fish predation may represent a key adaptation for the invasion success of D. lumholtzi. 9933,2009,3,2,Inductively coupled plasma generator for an environmentally benign perfluorocarbon abatement system,Although conventional plasma-resolution-type abatement systems for perfluorocarbons (PFCs) achieve PFC removal efficiencies of more than 98%| they consume a lot of electricity. To diminish global warming by reducing CO(2) equivalent emissions| an effective low power-consumption plasma generator is essential. The authors found that the pressure at which the electrical discharge can be maintained at the same rf power supply output increased with the number of turns per unit length of coil. In addition| they revealed that the CF(4) removal efficiency rose with increasing pressure. A plasma generator employing a modified cylindrical inductively coupled plasma chamber with 1.1 turns/cm achieved a CF(4) removal efficiency of 99.0% under conditions of a CF(4) flow rate of 10 cm(3)/min| a pressure of 0.9 kPa| and a rf power supply output of 1.5 kW. The CO(2) equivalent removal efficiency was calculated to be 93.5%| an improvement of 6.7% over that of the previous system. 10374,2009,3,4,INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY AND ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION. GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOECONOMICAL CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING THE KYOTO PROTOCOL,An old problem-"global" environment changes| is today the subject and substance of heavy mediatisation. The image's myth is stronger than reality| but if the civic spirit becomes better and each citizen of the planet more responsible toward the environment| it still is good. The current study aims to analyse not only the geopolitical implications of dramatic environment changes| but also the so called|| protocols" and "agreements" on this matter. Are these an instrument used to control the economic competitors? An answer to this question is attempted| in this article. 9786,2009,2,4,Infectious Disease in a Warming World: How Weather Influenced West Nile Virus in the United States (2001-2005),BACKGROUND: The effects of weather on West Nile virus (WNV) mosquito populations in the United States have been widely reported| but few studies assess their overall impact on transmission to humans. OBJECTIVES: We investigated meteorologic conditions associated with reported human WNV cases in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a case-crossover study to assess 16|298 human WNV cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2001 to 2005. The primary outcome measures were the incidence rate ratio of disease occurrence associated with mean weekly maximum temperature| cumulative weekly temperature| mean weekly dew point temperature| cumulative weekly precipitation| and the presence of I day of heavy rainfall (>= 50 mm) during the month prior to symptom onset. RESULTS: Increasing weekly maximum temperature and weekly cumulative temperature were similarly and significantly associated with a 35-83% higher incidence of reported WNV infection over the next month. An increase in mean weekly dew point temperature was significantly associated with a 9-38% higher incidence over the subsequent 3 weeks. The presence of at least I day of heavy rainfall within a week was associated with a 29-66% higher incidence during the same week and over the subsequent 2 weeks. A 20-mm increase in cumulative weekly precipitation was significantly associated with a 4-8% increase in incidence of reported WNV infection over the subsequent 2 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Warmer temperatures| elevated humidity| and heavy precipitation increased the rate of human WNV infection in the United States independent of season and each others' effects. 9779,2009,3,3,Influence of assumptions about selection and recycling efficiencies on the LCA of integrated waste management systems,Life cycle assessment (LCA) applied to alternative waste management strategies is becoming a commonly utilised tool for decision makers. This LCA study analyses together material and energy recovery within integrated municipal solid waste (MSW) management systems| i.e. the recovery of materials separated with the source-separated collection of MSW and the energy recovery from the residual waste. The final aim is to assess the energetic and environmental performance of the entire MSW management system and| in particular| to evaluate the influence of different assumptions about recycling on the LCA results. The analysis uses the method of LCA and| thus| takes into account that any recycling activity influences the environment not only by consuming resources and releasing emissions and waste streams but also by replacing conventional products from primary production. Different assumptions about the selection efficiencies of the collected materials and about the quantity of virgin material substituted by the reprocessed material were made. Moreover| the analysis considers that the energy recovered from the residual waste displaces the same quantity of energy produced in conventional power plants and boilers fuelled with fossil fuels. The analysis shows| in the expanded model of the material and energy recovering chain| that the environmental gains are higher than the environmental impacts. However| when we reduce the selection efficiencies by 15%| the impact indicators worsen by a percentage included between 10% and 26%. This phenomenon is even more evident when we consider a substitution ratio of 1:< 1 for paper and plastic: The worsening is around 15-20% for all the impact indicators except for the global warming for which the worsening is up to 45%. Hypotheses about the selection efficiencies of the source-separated collected materials and about the substitution ratio have a great influence on the LCA results. Consequently| policy makers have to be aware of the fact that the impacts of an integrated MSW management system are highly dependent on the assumptions made in the modelling of the material recovery| as well as in the modelling of the energy recovery. LCA allows to evaluate the impacts of integrated systems and how these impacts change when the assumptions made during the modelling of the different single parts of the system are modified. Due to the significant impacts that hypotheses about material recovery have in the results| they should be expressed in a very transparent way in the report of LCA studies| together with the assumptions made about energy recovery. The results suggest that the hypotheses about the value of the substitution ratio are very important| and the case of wood should therefore be better analysed and a substitution ratio of 1:< 1 should be used| as for paper and plastic. It seems that the assumptions made about which material is replaced by the recycled one are very important too| and in this sense| more research is needed about what the recycled plastic may effectively substitute| in particular the polyolefin mix. 9527,2009,2,3,Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change arising from increasing CO(2),A dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to investigate the influence of vegetation dynamics on climate change under conditions of global warming. The model results are largely in agreement with observations and the results of previous studies in terms of the present climate| present potential vegetation| present net primary productivity (NPP)| and pre-industrial carbon budgets. The equilibrium state of climate properties are compared among pre-industrial| doubled| and quadrupled atmospheric CO(2) values using DGVM-AGCM and current AGCM with fixed vegetation to evaluate the influence of dynamic vegetation change. We also separated the contributions of temperature| precipitation and CO(2) fertilization on vegetation change. The results reveal an amplification of global warming climate sensitivity by 10% due to the inclusion of dynamic vegetation. The total effects of elevated CO(2) and climate change also lead to an increase in NPP and vegetation coverage globally. The reduction of albedo associated with this greening results in enhanced global warming. Our separation analysis indicates that temperature alters vegetation at high latitudes such as Siberia or Alaska| where there is a switch from tundra to forest. On the other hand| CO(2) fertilization provides the largest contribution to greening in arid/semi-arid region. Precipitation change did not cause any drastic vegetation shift. 9296,2009,2,4,Influence of global climate model selection on runoff impact assessment,The future rainfall series used to drive hydrological models in many climate change impact on runoff studies are informed by rainfall simulated by global climate models (GCMs). This paper assesses how the choice of GCMs based on their abilities to reproduce the observed historical rainfall can affect runoff impact assessment. The 23 GCMs used in IPCC 4AR are considered together with 1961-2000 observed rainfall data over southeast Australia. The results indicate that most of the GCMs can reproduce the observed spatial mean annual rainfall pattern| but the errors in the mean seasonal and annual rainfall amounts can be significant. The future mean annual rainfall projections averaged across southeast Australia range from -10% to +3% change per degree global warming| which is amplified as -23% to +4% change in the future mean annual runoff. There is no clear difference in the future rainfall projections between the better and poorer GCMs based on their abilities to reproduce the observed historical rainfall| therefore using only the better GCMs or weights to favour the better GCMs give similar runoff impact assessment results as the use of all the 23 GCMs. The range of future runoff in impact assessment studies is probably best determined using future rainfall projections from the majority of available archived GCM simulations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9570,2009,2,4,Influence of sea surface temperature variability on global temperature and precipitation extremes,The HadISST1 data set was used to categorize seasonal patterns of observed global sea surface temperature (SST) variability between 1870 and 2006 using the method of Self-Organizing Maps (SOM). Eight patterns represented the majority of global SST variations associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Time series of the eight patterns exhibited periods with "preferred" SST states since the late 19th century| i.e.| when one or more patterns occurred more frequently than in other periods. The eight patterns were used to investigate the global land-based response of observed extreme temperature and precipitation indices from the HadEX data set to different nodes of SST variability between 1951 and 2003. Results showed very strong statistically significant opposite temperature and precipitation extremes associated with the first pattern (strong La Nina) and the last pattern (strong El Nino). Extreme maximum temperatures were significantly cooler during strong La Nina events than strong El Nino events over Australia| southern Africa| India| and Canada while the converse was true for United States and northeastern Siberia. These responses were larger when global warming was retained. Even intermediate patterns representing a shift from a weak El Nino to a weak La Nina with associated variability in the North Atlantic were linked with statistically significant increases in warm nights and warm days particularly across Scandinavia and northwest Russia. While the link between precipitation extremes and global SST patterns was less spatially coherent| there were large areas across North America and central Europe| which showed statistically significant differences in the response to opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. These results confirm that the variability of global SST anomaly patterns is important for the modulation of extreme temperature and precipitation globally. 9856,2009,2,4,Influence of temperature and spawning effort on Haliotis tuberculata mortalities caused by Vibrio harveyi: an example of emerging vibriosis linked to global warming,Since 1998| Haliotis tuberculata mass mortalities have been occurring regularly in wild abalone populations in France during their reproductive period and in conjunction with seawater summer temperature maxima and Vibrio harveyi presence. To confirm the importance of bacterial exposure| temperature and reproductive status on abalone susceptibility| experimental infections via bath exposure were performed using abalone ranging from immature to reproductively mature. Ripe abalone were more susceptible to the bacterium than immature specimens (P < 0.001)| and a difference of only 1 degrees C in temperature had a highly significant impact on the mortalities (P < 0.001). The natural mortalities that were surveyed during summer 2007 confirmed that recent epidemic losses of European abalone appeared in conjunction with host reproductive stress| elevated temperatures and presence of the pathogen V. harveyi. In view of the elevation of the mean summer temperatures observed in Brittany and Normandy over the last 25 years| this temperature-dependent vibriosis represents a new case of emerging disease associated with global warming. 9672,2009,2,3,Influence of the SST Rise on Baroclinic Instability Wave Activity under an Aquaplanet Condition,The influence of the sea surface temperature (SST) rise on extratropical baroclinic instability wave activity is investigated using an aquaplanet general circulation model (GCM). Two types of runs were performed: the High+3 run| in which the SST is increased by 3 K only at high latitudes| and the All+3 run| in which the SST is increased uniformly by 3 K all over the globe. These SST rises were intended to reproduce essential changes of the surface air temperature due to global warming. Wave activity changes are analyzed and discussed from the viewpoint of the energetics. In the High+3 run| midlatitude meridional temperature gradient is decreased in the lower troposphere and the wave energy is suppressed in the extratropics. In the All+3 run| although the large tropical latent heat release greatly enhances the midlatitude meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere| global mean wave energy does not change significantly. These results suggest that the low-level baroclinicity is much more important for baroclinic instability wave activity than upper-level baroclinicity. A poleward shift of wave energy| seen in global warming simulations| is evident in the All+3 run. Wave energy generation analysis suggests that the poleward shift of wave activity may be caused by the enhanced and poleward-shifted baroclinicity in the higher latitudes and the increased static stability in the lower latitudes. Poleward expansion of the high-baroclinicity region is still an open question. 9927,2009,3,3,Informed and uninformed public opinions on CO(2) capture and storage technologies in the Netherlands,Two research methods were used in this study to analyze the awareness and perception of the Dutch general public regarding Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS). In an Information-Choice Questionnaire (ICQ)| a representative sample of the Dutch public (n = 995) was provided with all information on attributes of six CCS options| which experts deemed necessary to come to well-considered and well-informed opinions. A traditional questionnaire was used simultaneously (n = 327) to study uninformed evaluations of these technologies. The results showed that the Dutch public is mostly unaware of CCS and has little knowledge about how current energy use causes global warming. Uninformed respondents are still inclined to give their opinion however| which results in unpredictive| easily changeable opinions. ICQ respondents who processed information on attributes of CCS options were likely to base their option evaluations on this information| though not entirely. All in all| the results of the ICQ suggest that| after processing information deemed necessary by experts| Dutch people reluctantly agree with large scale implementation of each of the six CCS options. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10105,2009,4,4,Informed dispersal| heterogeneity in animal dispersal syndromes and the dynamics of spatially structured populations,There is accumulating evidence that individuals leave their natal area and select a breeding habitat non-randomly by relying upon information about their natal and future breeding environments. This variation in dispersal is not only based on external information (condition dependence) but also depends upon the internal state of individuals (phenotype dependence). As a consequence| not all dispersers are of the same quality or search for the same habitats. In addition| the individual's state is characterized by morphological| physiological or behavioural attributes that might themselves serve as a cue altering the habitat choice of conspecifics. These combined effects of internal and external information have the potential to generate complex movement patterns and could influence population dynamics and colonization processes. Here| we highlight three particular processes that link condition-dependent dispersal| phenotype-dependent dispersal and habitat choice strategies: (1) the relationship between the cause of departure and the dispersers' phenotype; (2) the relationship between the cause of departure and the settlement behaviour and (3) the concept of informed dispersal| where individuals gather and transfer information before and during their movements through the landscape. We review the empirical evidence for these processes with a special emphasis on vertebrate and arthropod model systems| and present case studies that have quantified the impacts of these processes on spatially structured population dynamics. We also discuss recent literature providing strong evidence that individual variation in dispersal has an important impact on both reinforcement and colonization success and therefore must be taken into account when predicting ecological responses to global warming and habitat fragmentation. 10049,2009,4,4,Infrared heater arrays for warming field plots scaled up to 5-m diameter,As Earth continues to warm globally| there is a need to conduct ecosystem plot warming experiments under conditions as representative of open fields in the future as possible. One promising approach is to use hexagonal arrays of infrared heaters such as described by [Kimball| B.A.| Conley| M.M.| Wang| S.| Lin| X.| Luo| C.| Morgan| J.| Smith| D.| 2008. Infrared heater arrays for warming ecosystem field plots. Global Change Biology 14| 309-320]. However| their plots were only 3 m in diameter (7.1 m(2))| which limits the stature of vegetation to shorter than about 1 m and also limits the amount of plant material that can destructively harvested. Therefore| we tested a larger hexagonal 5-m diameter array of infrared heaters| which provided a near tripling of useable area (19.6 m(2)). The number of heaters was tripled from 6 to 18| and their height above the vegetative (wheat) canopy was scaled with the diameter (0.4 times diameter = 2.0 m). Distributions of down-going thermal radiation and of the resultant warming of the vegetation were quite uniform across the plot. Moreover| the same equation previously determined from 3-m diameter plots to describe the thermal radiation efficiency as a function of wind speed was still applicable. Thus| no problems were encountered in tripling the area of the infrared heater-warmed plots. Published by Elsevier B.V 10274,2009,4,4,Infrared monitoring of underground CO(2) storage using chalcogenide glass fibers,An optical-fiber-based system suitable for monitoring the presence of carbon dioxide| so-called "greenhouse gas"| is investigated. Since each pollutant gas shows a characteristic optical absorption spectrum in the mid-infrared (mid-IR)| it is possible to detect selectively and quantitatively the presence of gases in a given environment by analysing mid-IR spectra. The main infrared signature of carbon dioxide gas is a double absorption peak located at 4.2 mu m. Chalcogenide optical fibers| which can transmit light in the 1-6 mu m range| are well-adapted for CO(2) analysis. In this wavelength range| they show attenuation losses that compare favourably with other types of fiber such as silver halide fibers. In this paper| the detection limit of CO(2) is established as a function of optical path length. The dynamic parameters of the sensors| such as reversibility| response time and recovery time| are also studied. It is concluded that optical fibers based on chalcogenide glasses could be used to transport infrared light from a black body source to a remote CO(2) geological storage zone in order to monitor| in real time| CO(2) gas leakage. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10159,2009,2,4,Innovative designs of permafrost roadbed for the Qinghai-Tibet Railway,Under global warming scenarios| the passive method of simply increasing the thermal resistance by raising the embankment height and using insulating materials has been proven ineffective in warm and ice-rich permafrost areas and therefore could not be used in the Qinghai-Tibet Railway engineering. Instead| a proactive "cooled-roadbed" approach was developed and used to lower the ground temperature in order to maintain a perennially frozen subgrade. The concept that local and site-specific factors play an important role in the occurrence and disappearance of permafrost has helped us to devise a number of measures to cool down the roadbed. For example| we adjust and control heat transfer by using different embankment configurations and fill materials. The Qinghai-Tibet Railway project demonstrates that a series of proactive roadbed-cooling methods can be used to lower the temperature of permafrost beneath the embankment and to stabilize the roadbed. These methods include solar radiation control using shading boards| heat convection control using ventilation ducts| thermosyphons| air-cooled embankments| and heat conduction control using "thermal semi-conductor" materials| as well as combinations of above mentioned three control measures. This roadbed-cooling approach provides not only a solution for engineering construction in sensitive permafrost areas but also a countermeasure against possible global warming. 865,2009,4,4,Inorganic carbon isotope systematics in soil profiles undergoing silicate and carbonate weathering (Southern Michigan| USA),The upper Midwest USA features glacial-derived till materials enriched in carbonate minerals| but with the uppermost soil layer progressively leached of carbonates in the interval since glaciation. Groundwaters and groundwater-fed surface waters are profoundly influenced by carbonate mineral dissolution. Stable carbon isotope compositions of soil waters and groundwaters in two southern Michigan watersheds (Huron and Kalamazoo) were studied as a function of pH| delta(13)C(CO2)| types of weathering reactions (silicate vs. carbonate)| and degree of isotope equilibration. This comprehensive study of carbon isotope biogeochemistry in the vadose zone| including soil gas| soil water/groundwater| and soils (organic matter/carbonate phases)| elucidates relations between the chemical weathering rates and CO(2) fluxes in the soil zone. Such information is important to evaluate responses of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change. In shallow soil zones where only silicate weathering was occurring| respiratory CO(2) was the major source of soil water DIC with little addition from the atmospheric CO(2). Isotopic equilibration between delta(13)C(DIC) and delta(13)C(CO2) occurred in an open system with respect to Soil CO(2). In the deeper soil horizons carbonate dissolution dominated soil water chemistry and saturation with respect to calcite and dolomite was attained rapidly. Mass balance calculation showed that large amounts of soil CO(2) were consumed by carbonate dissolution| such that the deeper soil zone may not have been an open system with respect to CO(2). Constant delta(13)C(DIC) values (similar to - 11 parts per thousand) were observed in these deep soil waters and also in shallow groundwaters of the Huron watershed. Thus| isotopic equilibrium might not be reached between DIC and CO(2)| possibly due to a rapid kinetics of carbonate dissolution and limited gas-water exchange in the soils. if so| DIC was equally contributed by carbonate minerals (delta(13)C(CaCO3) = 0 parts per thousand) in reaction with soil CO(2) (delta(13)C(CO2) = -22 parts per thousand). Soils beneath an agricultural site with a wheat/corn/soybean rotation (the Kalamazoo watershed) displayed a wide range in delta(13)C(CO2) values (-22 to -12 parts per thousand)| and the delta(13)C(DIC) of deeper soil waters in contact with carbonate minerals was controlled by seasonal variations of delta(13)C(CO2) as well as by strong acids produced by nitrification and to a lesser degree by pyrite oxidation| both of which could react to dissolve carbonate minerals| in addition to carbonic acid dissolution. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9563,2009,5,2,Instability of climate and vegetation dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe during the final stage of the Last Interglacial (Eemian| Mikulino) and Early Glaciation,In terrestrial records from Central and Eastern Europe the end of the Last Interglacial seems to be characterized by evident climatic and environmental instabilities recorded by geochemical and vegetation indicators. The transition (MIS 5e/5d) from the Last Interglacial (Eemian| Mikulino) to the Early Last Glacial (Early Weichselian| Early Valdai) is marked by at least two warming events as observed in geochemical data on the lake sediment profiles of Central (Grobern| Neumark-Nord| Klinge) and of Eastern Europe (Ples). Results of palynological studies of all these sequences indicate simultaneously a strong increase of environmental oscillations during the very end of the Last Interglacial and the beginning of the Last Glaciation. This paper discusses possible correlations of these events between regions in Central and Eastern Europe. The pronounced climate and environment instability during the interglacial/glacial transition could be consistent with the assumption that it is about a natural phenomenon| characteristic for transitional stages. Taking into consideration that Currently observed "human-induced" global warming coincides with the natural trend to cooling| the study Of Such transitional stages is important for understanding the underlying processes of the climate changes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 9805,2009,4,4,Instrumentation enabling study of plant physiological response to elevated night temperature,Background: Global climate warming can affect functioning of crops and plants in the natural environment. In order to study the effects of global warming| a method for applying a controlled heating treatment to plant canopies in the open field or in the greenhouse is needed that can accept either square wave application of elevated temperature or a complex prescribed diurnal or seasonal temperature regime. The current options are limited in their accuracy| precision| reliability| mobility or cost and scalability. Results: The described system uses overhead infrared heaters that are relatively inexpensive and are accurate and precise in rapidly controlling the temperature. Remote computer-based data acquisition and control via the internet provides the ability to use complex temperature regimes and real-time monitoring. Due to its easy mobility| the heating system can randomly be allotted in the open field or in the greenhouse within the experimental setup. The apparatus has been successfully applied to study the response of rice to high night temperatures. Air temperatures were maintained within the set points +/- 0.5 degrees C. The incorporation of the combination of air-situated thermocouples| autotuned proportional integrative derivative temperature controllers and phase angled fired silicon controlled rectifier power controllers provides very fast proportional heating action (i.e. 9 ms time base)| which avoids prolonged or intense heating of the plant material. Conclusion: The described infrared heating system meets the utilitarian requirements of a heating system for plant physiology studies in that the elevated temperature can be accurately| precisely| and reliably controlled with minimal perturbation of other environmental factors. 10083,2009,4,4,INSTRUMENTATION| MEASUREMENT AND PERFORMANCE OF THREE AIR QUALITY MEASUREMENT SYSTEMS FOR DAIRY BUILDINGS,Recent interest in global warming has led to the monitoring of operations such as dairy production that emit pollutants into the atmosphere. However| monitoring systems for indoor air quality in dairy buildings are still uncommon due to high costs involved in designing systems that can withstand high moisture| dust| corrosive gases| and varying temperatures. For studying the performance of measurement systems for dairy buildings| three different air quality measuring systems were built using both affordable and expensive sensors. The measurement systems were 1) a stationary system for longer period on-site measurements| 2) a wireless stationary system for off-site measurement| and 3) a mobile system for periodic air quality measurement. The instrumentation| measurement procedures| and performance of these systems are presented in this article. Spatial air quality survey showed high variation in microclimate conditions in the dairy building. Average deviation of sensors front the trite value in the different measurement systems was 1.1 degrees C for temperature| 3.6% for relative humidity| 450 ppm for carbon dioxide| 0.5 m/s for velocity| and 1 ppm for ammonia. Affordable sensors in the systems gave reasonably accurate readings when carefully calibrated. The single most practical location for installing air quality measurement systems was directly above the dairy cows in the center of the dairy building. 9969,2009,3,4,Insulation Characteristics and Its Evaluation Method of N(2) Gas for Nonstandard Lightning Impulse Waveforms,Until recently| SF(6) gas has widely been used as the best insulating medium in substation equipment. However| SF(6) gas was specified to be a greenhouse gas at COPS in 1997 because of its high global warming potential (GWP)| and alternative insulation gases to SF(6) have been sought for a long time. Alternatives using the natural gases are considered to be suitable| but none of them show better properties for insulation as well as good environmental compatibility. Therefore| it is necessary to rationalize the equipment insulation level and reduce the test voltage of electric power apparatus to as low a level as possible. The actual lightning surge waveform (so-called nonstandard lightning impulse waveform) occurring in the actual field is different from the standard lightning impulse waveform (1.2/50 mu s). There are many cases in which the actual lightning surge waveform has a steep rise and large decay of overvoltage| and the insulation requirements are not as severe as those I or the standard lightning impulse waveform. In this paper| we focused our research on N(2) gas as an SF(6) substitute and investigated the insulation characteristics of N(2) gas for a single-frequency oscillatory waveform with various frequencies from 2.7 to 20.0 MHz and damping ratios. Based on the experimental results| it might be possible to reduce the test voltage of NZ gas insulation by evaluating the crest value of the actual lightning surge waveform that has been converted into an equivalent standard lightning impulse waveform. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals. Inc. Electr Eng Jpn| 167(2): 10-20| 2009; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/eej.20754 9388,2009,3,3,Integrated Analysis of Energy| Economic| and Environmental Performance of Biomethanol from Rice Straw in China,This paper focuses oil a biomethanol from the rice straw process involving the thermodynamic| economic| and environmental performance in China. Based oil the simulation of methanol synthesis via biomass gasification in interconnected fluidized beds using Aspen Plus software| the method of LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) is applied to evaluate the impact of pollutant emissions in the full life cycles of biomethanol. The integrated performance of biomethanol system is analyzed combining with energy utilization| economic cost| and environmental impact. The results show that the methanol yield can reach 0.308 kg/(kg rice straw)| i.e.| the energy efficiency of rice straw conversion to biomethanol is approximately 42.7%. For a biomethanol plant with an annual production of 50|000 tons| the real cost of biomethanol is evaluated at 2685 RMB/t| in which the economic cost is 2347 RMB/t| and the environmental cost is 337.6 RMB/t. Because of its high investment cost| presently the economic cost of biomethanol is higher than that of coal-based methanol in China. Nevertheless biomethanol will be becoming more competitive with the shortage of fossil fuel in the future. In the whole life cycle| the main pollutant emissions come from the biomethanol production process and biomethanol end-use by automobiles| whereas the net environmental effect is negative during the rice cultivation. Global warming is the most influential factor of the different impact categories. However| 1910 kg of CO(2) can be fixed for one ton of methanol by photosynthesis in the growth of rice| thus the effect of global warming is significantly reduced by biomass utilization compared with coal-based methanol. The integrated performance indicates that producing methanol from rice straw is beneficial to both the utilization of agriculture waste and in the improvement of environment. 9363,2009,3,2,Integrated Assessment for Setting Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets under the Condition of Great Uncertainty about the Probability and Impact of Abrupt Climate Change,In this paper the mid-21st-century target level for industrial carbon dioxide emissions is analyzed| taking into account the very large uncertainty about abrupt climate change. Following a brief review of integrated assessments of abrupt climate change| this study introduces an extension of DICE-2007| an integrated assessment model for climate policy analysis| which contains a hazard function that connects the rise in air temperature with the probability of abrupt change. The probability of abrupt change under a certain air temperature conditions and the economic impact of abrupt change are treated as widely variable parameters. Graphic indications of the combination of these parameters for several emission targets using the extended model show the necessity of developing adaptation measures to control the economic loss from abrupt change to below 8%| as well as to restrain global industrial carbon emissions in 2055 to the same level as those in 2005| assuming a most likely equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3 degrees C. Although a more stringent emissions target may be suggested in the spirit of precaution| it may lead to excessive carbon reduction from the viewpoint of cost-benefit balancing. 10024,2009,3,3,Integration of Life Cycle Assessment Into Agent-Based Modeling,A method is presented that allows for a life cycle assessment (LCA) to provide environmental information on an energy infrastructure system while it evolves. Energy conversion facilities are represented in an agent-based model (ABM) as distinct instances of technologies with owners capable of making decisions based on economic and environmental information. This simulation setup allows us to explore the dynamics of assembly| disassembly| and use of these systems| which typically span decades| and to analyze the effect of using LCA information in decision making. We were able to integrate a simplified LCA into an ABM by aligning and connecting the data structures that represent the energy infrastructure and the supply chains from source to sink. By using an appropriate database containing life cycle inventory (LCI) information and by solving the scaling factors for the technology matrix| we computed the contribution to global warming in terms of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) equivalents in the form of a single impact indicator for each instance of technology at each discrete simulation step. These LCAs may then serve to show each agent the impact of its activities at a global level| as indicated by its contribution to climate change. Similar to economic indicators| the LCA indicators may be fed back to the simulated decision making in the ABM to emulate the use of environmental information while the system evolves. A proof of concept was developed that is illustrated for a simplified LCA and ABM used to generate and simulate the evolution of a bioelectricity infrastructure system. 850,2009,2,4,Integration of MODIS-derived metrics to assess interannual variability in snowpack| lake ice| and NDVI in southwest Alaska,Impacts of global climate change are expected to result in greater variation in the seasonality of snowpack| lake ice| and vegetation dynamics in southwest Alaska. All have wide-reaching physical and biological ecosystem effects in the region. We used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) calibrated radiance| snow cover extent| and vegetation index products for interpreting interannual variation in the duration and extent of snowpack| lake ice| and vegetation dynamics for southwest Alaska. The approach integrates multiple seasonal metrics across large ecological regions. Throughout the observation period (2001-2007)| snow cover duration was stable within ecoregions| with variable start and end dates. The start of the lake ice season lagged the snow season by 2 to 3 months. Within a given lake| freeze-up dates varied in timing and duration| while break-up dates were more consistent. Vegetation phenology varied less than snow and ice metrics| with start-of-season dates comparatively consistent across years. The start of growing season and snow melt were related to one another as they are both temperature dependent. Higher than average temperatures during the El Nino winter of 2002-2003 were expressed in anomalous ice and snow season patterns. We are developing a consistent| MODIS-based dataset that will be used to monitor temporal trends of each of these seasonal metrics and to map areas of change for the study area. Published by Elsevier Inc. 10213,2009,2,4,Intensifying tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during summer monsoon-Global warming,The anomalously strong cyclonic activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) during the recent years led to a controversy about the impact of global warming on cyclonic activity in the NIO Tropical Easterly jet (TEJ) plays an important role in the formation of tropical cyclones (TC) over the NIO during summer monsoon season| but in the recent year it is decreasing. This is because of higher warming on the equatorial side of the TEJ than on the northern side| although on both sides a significant warming trend is seen. This warming seems to be a part of the general warming trend known to be occurring since mid 1970s. The vertical wind shear shows a positive correlation with the number of severe storms suggesting that a decrease in easterly shear is favourable for the formation of severe storms. Here I show that the sea surface temperature change over a long period is a key parameter to control the vertical wind shear over the NIO| an important quantity for cyclone activity. The stronger warming of the tropical North Indian Ocean during recent years drove reduced vertical wind shear Thus if the present decreasing trend of TEJ intensity continues| which is highly probable in view of presently occurring green-house warming| there is a strong likelihood of the formation of tropical cyclones of hurricane intensity even during the summer monsoon. Presently the intense systems are known to form only in the pre and post-monsoon seasons| when the vertical wind shear is small. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10016,2009,3,3,Intensive Livestock Farming: Global Trends| Increased Environmental Concerns| and Ethical Solutions,By 2050| global livestock production is expected to double-growing faster than any other agricultural sub-sector-with most of this increase taking place in the developing world. As the United Nation's four-hundred-page report| Livestock's Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Options| documents| livestock production is now one of three most significant contributors to environmental problems| leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions| land degradation| water pollution| and increased health problems. The paper draws on the UN report as well as a flurry of other recently published studies in order to demonstrate the effect of intensive livestock production on global warming and on people's health. The paper's goal is to outline the problems caused by intensive livestock farming and analyze a number of possible solutions| including legislative changes and stricter regulations| community mobilizing| and consumers choosing to decrease their demand for animal products. 9757,2009,2,4,Inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of landfalling tropical cyclones in East Asia. Part I: time series analysis,This paper is the first of a two-part series that presents results of a comprehensive study of the Variations ill the annual number of landfalling tropical cyclones (ATCs) in various parts of East Asia during the period 1945-2004. The objective is to identify possible trends and cycles in such variations. from inter-annual to inter-decadal| and the possible reasons for such variations. The East Asian region is divided into three sub-regions: South (south China| Vietnam and the Philippines)| Middle (east China)| and North (Korean Peninsula and Japan). Variations in the annual number oil various time scales in each region are examined separately. Part I reports oil the results of wavelet analyses of the time series of the annual number in each region| and Part II examines the possible reasons for the cycles identified in Part I. An important finding front the time series analysis is that none of the ATC time series shows a significant linear trend. Which suggests that global warming has not led to a higher frequency of landfalling tropical cyclones or typhoons in any of the regions in Asia. Instead. each time series shows large inter-annual (2-8 years) and multi-decadal (16-32 years) variations. In some periods. the annual number of ATCs varies ill unison among all regions of Asia. In others. one region would have an above-normal number of landfalling events| while the other regions have below-normal numbers. In general. at multi-decadal time scales| the number of ATCs in each region correlates very well with that of the total number of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society 9788,2009,4,3,Inter-generational equity index for assessing environmental sustainability: An example on global warming,Inter-generational equity is essential for environmental sustainability. The current generation inherits an environment with a certain quality from the previous generation. The impact on the environment gradually exacerbates and accumulates over a period of time between two generations. However| currently there is no index available to assess inter-generational equity. Generally a typical environmental index is established to represent the environmental status in a specific year. This kind of index| although it presents the annual environmental variation| does not reflect the degree of change in environmental sustainability between two generations. Therefore| an inter-generational equity index (IGEI) and an endowment equation to examine the temporal trend of the changing environment are proposed for assessing inter-generational equity. To demonstrate the applicability of the endowment equation| an IGEI was established to assess the inter-generational equity of global warming. The global warming IGEI evaluates the status between two generations based on three sub-indexes; CO(2) emission| loss due to climate disasters| and the size of the existing forest area. The pressure-state-response (PSR) framework was adopted to explain the causal relationship between these three sub-indexes. According to the endowment rate determined by the proposed equation for each sub-index| the increase in CO(2) emission from 1980 to 2000 shows an obviously inequitable pattern between generations. Subsequently| the loss due to climate disasters between generations was also more serious. The size of the forest area| an important factor for reducing the impact of global warming| is unfortunately also decreasing significantly between generations. Using the endowment rate determined by the proposed endowment equation| the evaluation of the inter-generational equity is made possible and is demonstrated by the IGEI established for global warming. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10252,2009,2,3,Interacting effects of elevated temperature and ocean acidification on the aerobic performance of coral reef fishes,Concerns about the impacts of ocean acidification on marine life have mostly focused on how reduced carbonate saturation affects calcifying organisms. Here| we show that levels of CO(2)-induced acidification that may be attained by 2100 could also have significant effects on marine organisms by reducing their aerobic capacity. The effects of temperature and acidification on oxygen consumption were tested in 2 species of coral reef fishes| Ostorhinchus doedeleini and O. cyanosoma| from the Great Barrier Reef| Australia. The capacity for aerobic activity (aerobic scope) declined at temperatures above the summer average (29 degrees C) and in CO(2)-acidified water (pH 7.8 and similar to 1000 ppm CO(2)) compared to control water (pH 8.15). Aerobic scope declined by 36 and 32% for O. doederleini and O. cyanosoma at temperatures between 29 to 32 degrees C| whereas it declined by 33 and 47%) for O. doederleini and O. cyanosoma in acidified water compared to control water. Thus| the declines in aerobic scope in acidified water were similar to those caused by a 3 degrees C increase in water temperature. Minimum aerobic scope values of similar to 200 mg O(2) kg(-1) h(-1) were attained for both species in acidified water at 32 degrees C| compared with over 600 mg O(2) kg(-1) h(-1) in control water at 29 degrees C. Mortality rate increased sharply at 33 degrees C| indicating that this temperature is close to the lethal thermal limit for both species. Acidification further increased the mortality rate of O. doederleini| but not of O. cyanosoma. These results show that coral reef fishes are sensitive to both higher temperatures and increased levels of dissolved CO(2)| and that the aerobic performance of some reef fishes could be significantly reduced if climate change continues unabated. 9393,2009,2,4,Interaction of geomorphic and ecologic features across altitudinal zones in a subarctic landscape,Vegetation is often considered to stabilize geomorphic processes. An increasing abundance of vegetation may cause negative feedbacks within a periglacial system. In this study| we explored the importance of vegetation on the occurrence of active cryoturbation-dominated feature fields in subarctic Finland on a landscape scale. The vegetation-cryoturbation interaction was studied across three altitudinal zones by applying hierarchical partitioning (HP) and variation partitioning (VP) methods that overcome collinearity problems in multivariate analysis. Firstly| our results showed that vegetation factors| especially the canopy cover of the field-layer vegetation and the total above ground biomass| were among the most important environmental variables affecting the occurrence of active cryoturbation features. Moreover| vegetation factors were for the most part positively associated with cryoturbation. Under the predicted global warming| the 'greening' of arctic and subarctic regions may| therefore| decrease and also increase the activity of the periglacial processes in sparsely vegetated terrain. Secondly| our analyses gave contrasting results of the environmental factors of the periglacial processes across altitudinal zones| although the relative importance of the vegetation group was rather constant throughout the zones. Thus| we stress the importance of the spatial study setting in geomorphic studies in topographically varying relief. We recommend either taking the altitudinal zonation of the landscape into consideration or studying the features within a predetermined zone to decrease misinterpretations in environment-process relationships. Methodologically| our results encourage wider applications of partitioning methods in multivariate settings in geomorphology. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 999,2009,2,4,Interactions between the impacts of ultraviolet radiation| elevated CO(2)| and nutrient limitation on marine primary producers,It is well known that UV radiation can cause deleterious effects to the physiological performance| growth and species assemblages of marine primary producers. In this review we describe the range of interactions observed between these impacts of ultraviolet radiation (UVR| 280-400 nm) with other environmental factors such as the availability of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR)| nutrient status and levels of dissolved CO(2)| all of which can| in turn| be influenced by global climate change. Thus| increases in CO(2) levels can affect the sensitivity of some species to UV-B radiation (UV-B)| while others show no such impact on UV-B susceptibility. Both nitrogen-and phosphorus-limitation can have direct interactive effects on the susceptibility of algal cells and communities to UVR| though such effects are somewhat variable. Nutrient depletion can also potentially lead to a dominance of smaller celled species| which may be less able to screen out and are thus likely to be more susceptible to UVR-induced damage. The variability of responses to such interactions can lead to alterations in the species composition of algal assemblages. 9281,2009,4,3,Intermodel variability of future changes in the Baiu rainband estimated by the pseudo global warming downscaling method,Changes in the Baiu rainband owing to global warming are assessed by the pseudo global warming downscaling method (PGW-DS). The PGW-DS is similar to the conventional dynamical downscaling method using a regional climate model (RCM)| but the boundary conditions of the RCM are obtained by adding the difference between the future and present climates simulated by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) into the 6-hourly reanalysis data in a control period. We conducted the multiple PGW-DS runs using the selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set| giving better performance around East Asia in June| and the PGW-DS run using the multiselected CGCM model ensemble mean (PGW-MME run). The PGW-MME and PGW-DS runs show an increase in precipitation over the Baiu rainband and the southward shift of the Baiu rainband. The PGW-MME run has good similarity to the average of all PGW-DS runs. This fact indicates that an average of the multiple PGW-DS runs can be replaced by a single PGW-DS run using the multiselected CGCM ensemble mean| reducing the significant computational expense. In comparison with the GCM projections| the PGW-DS runs reduce the intermodel variability in the Baiu rainband caused by the CGCMs themselves. 9754,2009,4,4,Internalization of the external costs of global environmental damage in an integrated assessment model,This study simulates the internalization of the external costs of major global environmental issues using an optimal economic growth model. We merged two existing models: an integrated assessment model (IAM) and a life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) model. We sought to achieve simultaneously the following three objectives: (i) to incorporate environmental issues including global warming in the IAM; (ii) to assess environmental impacts with a bottom-up approach from the LCIA; and (iii) to internalize external costs obtained from the environmental impact study. The study also provides initial simulation results obtained from the merged model. Simulation results indicate that global warming will account for somewhere from 10% to 40% of all external costs in the 21st century. The remaining cost will come from land use and its changes. The internalization of the external cost will cause a decline in economic growth by approximately 5%| whereas forest preservation will increase by 40% and fossil-fuel consumption will be reduced by 15%. The estimated sustainability indicators imply that a necessary condition of sustainable development is satisfied for the entire world and for the developed countries during the 21st century| but is not satisfied until the latter half of this century for the developing counties. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10038,2009,2,4,INTERNATIONAL NETWORK FOR CAPACITY BUILDING FOR THE CONTROL OF EMERGING VIRAL VECTOR-BORNE ZOONOTIC DISEASES: ARBO-ZOONET,Arboviruses are arthropod-borne viruses| which include West Nile fever virus (WNFV)| a mosquito-borne virus| Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV)| a mosquito-borne virus| and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV)| a tick-borne virus. These arthropod-borne viruses can cause disease in different domestic and wild animals and in humans| posing a threat to public health because of their epidemic and zoonotic potential. In recent decades| the geographical distribution of these diseases has expanded. Outbreaks of WNF have already occurred in Europe| especially in the Mediterranean basin. Moreover| CCHF is endemic in many European countries and serious outbreaks have occurred| particularly in the Balkans| Turkey and Southern Federal Districts of Russia. In 2000| RVF was reported for the first time outside the African continent| with cases being confirmed in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. This spread was probably caused by ruminant trade and highlights that there is a threat of expansion of the virus into other parts of Asia and Europe. In the light of global warming and globalisation of trade and travel| public interest in emerging zoonotic diseases has increased. This is especially evident regarding the geographical spread of vector-borne diseases. A multi-disciplinary approach is now imperative| and groups need to collaborate in an integrated manner that includes vector control| vaccination programmes| improved therapy strategies| diagnostic tools and surveillance| public awareness| capacity building and improvement of infrastructure in endemic regions. 10371,2009,3,4,Interregional Sharing of Energy Conservation Targets in China: Efficiency and Equity,Energy conservation is a long-term strategic policy in China to support its economic and social development. This strategy is important for saving resources| protecting the environment| and ensuring a secure supply of energy. However| energy conservation often involves large amounts of investment and may also have dampening impacts on some local and regional economies. Moreover| energy conservation has many features of a public good. Therefore| government policy will have to play a strong role to foster local efforts and interregional cooperation on this issue. This paper analyzes a promising policy instrument - an interregional energy conservation-quota trading system. An operational model is developed to simulate the workings of this policy instrument for a variety of quota allocations among regions. The results indicate that a tradable quota system can help China achieve its conservation target in a cost-effective way and in accordance with its regional development strategy. 10143,2009,2,4,INTERSPECIFIC AND INTRASPECIFIC VARIATION IN CERCARIAE RELEASE,Given the importance of temperature for the shedding of trematode infective stages (cercariae) from gastropod first intermediate hosts| we investigated the response to temperature increases of trematodes of the intertidal snail Zeacumantus subcarinatus collected from different latitudes (differing in mean annual summer temperature) on the South Island of New Zealand. We investigated whether shedding of cercariae at elevated temperatures differed both between species (interspecific variation) and among populations of each trematode species (intraspecific variation). The shedding of one trematode species| Maritrema novaezealandensis (Microphallidae)| appears to decrease with increased temperature and differed among locations. In contrast| the shedding of a second species. Acanthoparyphium sp. (Echinostomatidae)| increased at warmer temperatures. In particular| Acanthoparyphium sp.-infected snails from 1 location showed the greatest increase in the shedding of cercariae in response to elevated temperature. Our results demonstrate that different trematode species and populations may be dissimilarly impacted by temperature changes resulting from global warming. In addition| both interspecific and intraspecific variation may result in different impacts of trematodes on ecosystems at different locales. 9315,2009,4,4,Interval number fuzzy linear programming for climate change impact assessments of reservoir active storage,The major uncertainty in the climate change impact study inherits from applying the predictions of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Different results might be obtained by using various GCMs' predictions| which causes difficulties on the decision making of water resources management. This study proposed an integrated hydrological simulations and optimization framework| consisting of a fuzzy linear programming model with interval numbers| a streamflow simulation model| and agricultural water demand projections| to evaluate the impacts of climate change on reservoir active storage. The reservoir inflows are simulated by the WatBal model| while agricultural water demands are predicted based on the projected change of potential evapotranspiration. Inflows and water demands are used to formulate an interval number fuzzy linear programming model. Fuzzy relationships are used to describe tolerable deficits of water resources| and the interval number is employed to indicate ranges of possible inflows and water demands. This systematic framework is applied to study the Tsengwen reservoir watershed to provide an optimal interval of active storage. The results further indicate the higher tolerable deficit| the smaller difference between superior and inferior active storage. 831,2009,3,3,Investigating unsaturated fat| monensin| or bromoethanesulfonate in continuous cultures retaining ruminal protozoa. I. Fermentation| biohydrogenation| and microbial protein synthesis,Methane is an end product of ruminal fermentation that is energetically wasteful and contributes to global climate change. Bromoethanesulfonate| animal-vegetable fat| and monensin were compared with a control treatment to suppress different functional groups of ruminal prokaryotes in the presence or absence of protozoa to evaluate changes in fermentation| digestibility| and microbial N outflow. Four dual-flow continuous culture fermenter systems were used in 4 periods in a 4 x 4 Latin square design split into 2 subperiods. In subperiod 1| a multistage filter system (50-mu m smallest pore size) retained most protozoa. At the start of subperiod 2| conventional filters (300-mu m pore size) were substituted to efflux protozoa via filtrate pumps over 3 d; after a further 7 d of adaptation| the fermenters were sampled for 3 d. Treatments were retained during both subperiods. Flow of total N and digestibilities of NDF and OM were 18| 16| and 9% higher| respectively| for the defaunated subperiod but were not different among treatments. Ammonia concentration was 33% higher in the faunated fermenters but was not affected by treatment. Defaunation increased the flow of nonammonia N and bacterial N from the fermenters. Protozoal counts were not different among treatments| but bromoethanesulfonate increased the generation time from 43.2 to 55.6 h. Methanogenesis was unaffected by defaunation but tended to be increased by unsaturated fat. Defaunation did not affect total volatile fatty acid production but decreased the acetate: propionate ratio; monensin increased production of isovalerate and valerate. Biohydrogenation of unsaturated fatty acids was impaired in the defaunated fermenters because effluent flows of oleic| linoleic| and linolenic acids were 60| 77| and 69% higher| and the ratio of vaccenic acid: unsaturated FA ratio was decreased by 34% in the effluent. This ratio was increased in both subperiods with the added fat diet| indicating an accumulation of intermediates of biohydrogenation. However| the flow of 18: 2 conjugated linoleic acid was unaffected by defaunation or by treatments other than added fat. The flows of trans-10| trans-11| and total trans-18:1 fatty acids were not affected by monensin or faunation status. 9306,2009,3,3,Irrigated afforestation of the Sahara and Australian Outback to end global warming,Each year| irrigated Saharan- and Australian-desert forests could sequester amounts of atmospheric CO(2) at least equal to that from burning fossil fuels. Without any rain| to capture CO(2) produced from gasoline requires adding about $1 to the per-gallon pump-price to cover irrigation costs| using reverse osmosis (RO)| desalinated| sea water. Such mature technology is economically competitive with the currently favored| untested| power-plant Carbon Capture (and deep underground| or under-ocean) Sequestration (CCS). Afforestation sequesters CO(2)| mostly as easily stored wood| both from distributed sources (automotive| aviation| etc.| that CCS cannot address) and from power plants. Climatological feasibility and sustainability of such irrigated forests| and their potential global impacts are explored using a general circulation model (GCM). Biogeophysical feedback is shown to stimulate considerable rainfall over these forests| reducing desalination and irrigation costs; economic value of marketed| renewable| forest biomass| further reduces costs; and separately| energy conservation also reduces the size of the required forests and therefore their total capital and operating costs. The few negative climate impacts outside of the forests are discussed| with caveats. If confirmed with other GCMs| such irrigated| subtropical afforestation probably provides the best| near-term route to complete control of green-house-gas-induced| global warming. 832,2009,2,4,Is global climate change influencing the overwintering distribution of weakfish Cynoscion regalis?,The pattern of stable isotope signatures in a sub-sample of 67 juvenile weakfish Cynoscion regalis| captured at the mouth of the Christina River| 113 km upstream of the mouth of Delaware Bay (U.S.A) in the autumn of 2000| suggested that they resided at the location since recruitment. The possibility that young C. regalis departed from the generally characteristic life-history pattern of marine migrants at this latitude| i.e. emigrating offshore with the adults in autumn was bolstered by the collection of 69 individuals during the winters of 2000-2006 from the travelling screens of a power plant located at river kilometre 88 including an 118 mm total length juvenile captured in mid-February 2006. 9282,2009,2,4,Is summer monsoon rainfall decreasing over India in the global warming era?,Using long-term ( 1871-2005) summer monsoon rainfall data over 30 meteorological subdivisions of India| overall tendencies of the rainfall have been studied. Further| the subseasonal (monthly) trends have been evaluated. For this purpose| simple linear regression technique is applied. To examine the trends in different segments for summer monsoon rainfall| 11-year running averages are calculated. Most of the subdivisions reveal systematic increasing and decreasing trends in different segments of the time series. India experienced wet monsoon conditions during the late 1950s and dry monsoon conditions around the early 1900s. In the global warming era (1970-2005)| 19 out of 30 meteorological subdivisions showed negative tendencies in summer monsoon rainfall. This decrease in summer monsoon rainfall is associated with a weakening of the Southern Oscillation and relaxation of the meridional temperature gradient over the Indian Ocean. The gamma distribution is used to study the distribution of the rainfall by calculating scale and shape parameters. In general| larger values of scale parameter are found over west coast during summer monsoon and individual months. The shape parameter is high over northeast India. 9716,2009,2,4,Isolation and characterization of polymorphic microsatellite DNA makers for Euphrasia nankotaizanensis (Orobanchaceae) and cross amplification in another Euphrasia L.,Euphrasia nankotaizanensis is an endangered flowering plant distributed restrictedly on rocky slope of high mountain peaks in central and northern Taiwan. In order to undertake a conservation program| especially given impacts of the global warming| it is essential to evaluate its genetic diversity and population structure. We described nine novel microsatellite primer pairs in E. nankotaizanensis and also examined its relative E. transmorrisonensis. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 7 to 29. Expected (H (E)) and observed (H (O)) heterozygosities ranged from 0.83 to 0.98 and 0.00 to 0.95| respectively. Eight of the nine microsatellite loci displayed significant departures from Hardy-Weinberg expectations| likely due to the loss of habitats and the small population size. Significant linkage disequilibrium (LD) was detected in most loci. Cross-species amplification of microsatellites took place at five loci. These primers may provide a tool for understanding the demography and population structure of Euphrasia species in Taiwan. 819,2009,2,4,K-Model-A Continuous Model of Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics: Theory,Response of soil organic carbon (SOC) to global climate change can have important implications to future environment. Soil organic carbon models that provide reliable predictions of SOC change in response to changing management| vegetation| and climatic conditions can serve as useful tools for developing and assessing land management practices that improve soil quality and sustainability and promote soil carbon sequestration. Most models of SOC dynamics based on the concepts of homogeneous SOC compartments face the problem of disconnection between conceptual kinetic SOC compartments and measurable SOC fractions. In addition| most kinetic parameters cannot be determined experimentally for specific site and soil conditions. Feng (2009) developed a new theoretical framework of SOC dynamics based on three fundamental assumptions: the possibility of steady state| linearity| and rate-time equivalence. A single SOC decomposition function| the R function| forms the basis of SOC prediction. This article develops the mathematical theory of a process-based| continuous model (K-model) of the R function. The model is developed by considering three basic steps in SOC decomposition: the initial decomposition of plant litter and utilization of its carbon by soil microorganisms| death of microorganisms| and decomposition and recycling of dead microbial residues. Death of microorganisms and subsequent decomposition of the dead microbial residue form a continuous cycle (the MD cycle) that leads to stabilization of C in soils. The model identifies a specific set of parameters that can be determined experimentally.| making possible for site-specific parameterization and simulation. 9951,2009,2,4,Keeping up with early springs: rapid range expansion in an avian herbivore incurs a mismatch between reproductive timing and food supply,Within three decades| the barnacle goose population wintering on the European mainland has dramatically increased in numbers and extended its breeding range. The expansion has occurred both within the Arctic as well as by the colonization of temperate areas. Studies of performance of individuals in expanding populations provide information on how well species can adapt to novel environments and global warming. We| therefore| studied the availability of high quality food as well as timing of reproduction| wing moult| fledgling production and postfledging survival of individually marked geese in three recently established populations: one Arctic (Barents Sea) and two temperate (Baltic| North Sea). In the Barents Sea population| timing of hatching was synchronized with the peak in food availability and there was strong stabilizing selection. Although birds in the Baltic and North Sea populations bred 6-7 weeks earlier than Arctic birds| timing of hatching was late in relation to the peak in food availability| and there was moderate to strong directional selection for early breeding. In the Baltic| absolute timing of egg laying advanced considerably over the 20-year study period| but advanced little relative to spring phenology| and directional selection on lay date increased over time. Wing moult of adults started only 2-4 weeks earlier in the temperate populations than in the Arctic. Synchronization between fledging of young and end of wing moult decreased in the temperate populations. Arctic-breeding geese may gradually accumulate body stores from the food they encounter during spring migration| which allows them to breed relatively early and their young to use the peak of the Arctic food resources. By contrast| temperate-breeding birds are not able to acquire adequate body stores from local resources early enough| that is before the quality of food for their young starts to decrease. When global temperatures continue to rise| Arctic-breeding barnacle geese might encounter similar problems. 10246,2009,2,4,Labile| recalcitrant| and microbial carbon and nitrogen pools of a tallgrass prairie soil in the US Great Plains subjected to experimental warming and clipping,Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes are largely controlled by the small but highly bio-reactive| labile pools of these elements in terrestrial soils| while long-term C and N storage is determined by the long-lived recalcitrant fractions. Changes in the size of these pools and redistribution among them in response to global warming may considerably affect the long-term terrestrial C and N storage. However| such changes have not been carefully examined in field warming experiments. This study used sulfuric acid hydrolysis to quantify changes in labile and recalcitrant C and N fractions of soil in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem that had been continuously warmed with or without clipping for about 2.5 years. Warming significantly increased labile C and N fractions in the unclipped plots| resulting in increments of 373 mg C kg(-1) dry soil and 15 mg N kg-1 dry soil| over this period whilst clipping significantly decreased such concentrations in the warmed plots. Warming also significantly increased soil microbial biomass C and N in the unclipped plots| and increased ratios of soil microbial/labile C and N| indicating an increase in microbial C- and N-use efficiency. Recalcitrant and total C and N contents were not significantly affected by warming. For all measured pools| only labile and microbial biomass C fractions showed significant interactions between warming and clipping| indicating the dependence of the warming effects on clipping. Our results suggest that increased soil labile and microbial C and N fractions likely resulted indirectly from warming increases in plant biomass input| which may be larger than warming-enhanced decomposition of labile organic compounds. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 10384,2009,3,4,Laboratory Investigation of Moisture Damage in Warm-Mix Asphalt Containing Moist Aggregate,In recent years| rising energy prices| global warming| and more stringent environmental regulations have generated interest in warm-mix asphalt (WMA) technologies as a means to decrease energy consumption and emissions associated with conventional hot-mix asphalt. In this study| a laboratory investigation was conducted of moisture damage in WMA mixtures containing moist aggregates. Indirect tensile strength (ITS)| tensile strength ratio| deformation| and toughness tests were performed to determine the mixtures' moisture susceptibilities. The experimental design included two percentages of moisture content (0% and similar to 0.5% by weight of the dry mass of the aggregate)| two WMA additives (Asphamin and Sasobit)| and three aggregate sources. In this study 15 mix designs were performed| and 180 specimens were tested. Test results indicated that| as expected| dry ITS values were affected by aggregate moisture and hydrated lime contents| whereas a WMA additive did not significantly alter the dry ITS and toughness values. Statistical analysis showed no significant differences in the wet ITS values of WMA mixture of three types of mixtures (control| Asphamin| and Sasobit) under identical conditions (same moisture and lime contents). Statistical analysis also showed that wet ITS values| generally| were statistically different for mixtures made with various aggregate sources. The deformation resistance values of mixtures containing moisture were lower than those of mixtures made with dry aggregate. However| the results indicated that the addition of hydrated lime increased the deformation resistance of all mixtures. 10300,2009,4,4,Laboratory simulation of SO(2) heterogeneous reactions on hematite surface under different SO(2) concentrations,The variations of sulfate formation and optical coefficients during SO(2) heterogeneous reactions on hematite surface under different SO(2) concentrations were examined using in situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) and ion chromatograph (IC). Laboratory experiments revealed that within ambient SO(2) of 0.51-18.6 ppmv| sulfate product| producing velocity| absorption and backward scattering coefficients showed an increasing trend with SO(2) concentration. Under given SO(2) concentration| the velocity of sulfate producing performed an evolution of initial increasing| midterm decreasing and final stabilizing. The reactive uptake and Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) uptake coefficients of heterogeneous reactions rose with SO(2) and exhibited high reactivities. Considering global warming| this result is important for the knowledge of heterogeneous reactions of SO(2) on mineral particle surface in the atmosphere and the assessment of their impacts on radiative forcing. 9999,2009,2,4,Lack of Evidence for the Drought-linked Chytridiomycosis Hypothesis,A significant amount of recent research has focused on the Potentially synergistic roles of climate change and disease in causing amphibian declines and extinctions. Herein I discuss the drought-linked chytridiomycosis hypothesis (DLCH)| which states that Prolonged Or intensified dry seasons trigger or exacerbate epidemics of chytridiomycosis| a potentially lethal skin disease of amphibians caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. I demonstrate that the DLCH runs contrary to our knowledge of B. dendrobatidis physiology| biogeography| and host-parasite ecology and conclude that abnormally dry weather should actually favor amphibians by decreasing the prevalence| severity| and spread of chytridiomycosis. 765,2009,2,4,Lakes and reservoirs as sentinels| integrators| and regulators of climate change,Climate change is generating complex responses in both natural and human ecosystems that vary in their geographic distribution| magnitude| and timing across the global landscape. One of the major issues that scientists and policy makers now confront is how to assess such massive changes over multiple scales of space and time. Lakes and reservoirs comprise a geographically distributed network of the lowest points in the surrounding landscape that make them important sentinels of climate change. Their physical| chemical| and biological responses to climate provide a variety of information-rich signals. Their sediments archive and integrate these signals| enabling paleolimnologists to document changes over years to millennia. Lakes are also hot spots of carbon cycling in the landscape and as such are important regulators of climate change| processing terrestrial and atmospheric as well as aquatic carbon. We provide an overview of this concept of lakes and reservoirs as sentinels| integrators| and regulators of climate change| as well as of the need for scaling and modeling these responses in the context of global climate change. We conclude by providing a brief look to the future and the creation of globally networked sensors in lakes and reservoirs around the world. 9833,2009,3,4,Land management as a factor controlling dissolved organic carbon release from upland peat soils 1: Spatial variation in DOC productivity,The importance of soil storage in global carbon cycling is well recognised and factors leading to increased losses from this pool may act as a positive feedback mechanism in global warming. Upland peat soils are usually assumed to serve as carbon sinks| there is however increasing evidence of carbon loss from upland peat soils| and DOC concentrations in UK rivers have increased markedly over the past three decades. A number of drivers for increasing DOC release from peat soils have been proposed although many of these would not explain fine-scale variations in DOC release observed in many catchments. We examined the effect of land use and management on DOC production in upland peat catchments at two spatial scales within the UK. DOC concentration was measured in streams draining 50 small-scale catchments (< 3 km(2)) in three discrete regions of the south Pennines and one area in the North Yorkshire Moors. Annual mean DOC concentration was also derived from water colour data recorded at water treatment works for seven larger scale catchments (1.5-20 km(2)) in the south Pennines. Soil type and land use/management in all catchments were characterised from NSRI digital soil data and ortho-corrected colour aerial imagery. Of the factors assessed| representing all combinations of soil type and land use together with catchment slope and area| the proportion of exposed peat surface resulting from new heather burning was consistently identified as the most significant predictor of variation in DOC concentration. This relationship held across all blanket peat catchments and scales. We propose that management activities are driving changes in edaphic conditions in upland peat to those more favourable for aerobic microbial activity and thus enhance peat decomposition leading to increased losses of carbon from these environments. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 987,2009,4,4,Land-Ocean Coupling of Carbon and Nitrogen Fluxes on Sandy Beaches,Rivers link oceans with the land| creating global hot spots of carbon processing in coastal seas. Coastlines around the world are dominated by sandy beaches| but beaches are unusual in that they are thought to rely almost exclusively on marine imports for food. No significant connections to terrestrial production having been demonstrated. By contrast| we isotopically traced carbon and nitrogen pathways leading to clams (Donax deltoides) on beaches. Clams from areas influenced by river plumes had significantly different isotope signatures (delta(13)C: -18.5 to -20.2aEuro degrees; delta(15)N: 8.3-10.0aEuro degrees) compared with clams remote from plumes (delta(13)C: -17.5 to -19.5aEuro degrees; delta(15)N: 7.6-8.7aEuro degrees)| showing that terrestrial carbon and sewage| both delivered in river plumes| penetrate beach food webs. This is a novel mechanism of trophic subsidy in marine intertidal systems| linking the world's largest shore ecosystem to continental watersheds. The same clams also carry pollution signatures of sewage discharged into rivers| demonstrating that coastal rivers connect ecosystems in unexpected ways and transfer contaminants across the land-ocean boundary. The links we demonstrate between terrigenous matter and the largest of all marine intertidal ecosystems are significant given the immense social| cultural| and economic values of beaches to humans and the predicted consequences of altered river discharge to coastal seas caused by global climate change. 9441,2009,3,3,Landfilling of waste: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions,Accounting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from waste landfilling is summarized with the focus on processes and technical data for a number of different landfilling technologies: open dump (which was included as the worst-case-scenario)| conventional landfills with flares and with energy recovery| and landfills receiving low-organic-carbon waste. The results showed that direct emissions of GHG from the landfill systems (primarily dispersive release of methane) are the major contributions to the GHG accounting| up to about 1000 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) for the open dump| 300 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) for conventional landfilling of mixed waste and 70 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) for low-organic-carbon waste landfills. The load caused by indirect| upstream emissions from provision of energy and materials to the landfill was low| here estimated to be up to 16 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1). On the other hand| utilization of landfill gas for electricity generation contributed to major savings| in most cases| corresponding to about half of the load caused by direct GHG emission from the landfill. However| this saving can vary significantly depending on what the generated electricity substitutes for. Significant amounts of biogenic carbon may still be stored within the landfill body after 100 years| which here is counted as a saved GHG emission. With respect to landfilling of mixed waste with energy recovery| the net| average GHG accounting ranged from about -70 to 30 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1)| obtained by summing the direct and indirect (upstream and downstream) emissions and accounting for stored biogenic carbon as a saving. However| if binding of biogenic carbon was not accounted for| the overall GHG load would be in the range of 60 to 300 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1). This paper clearly shows that electricity generation as well as accounting of stored biogenic carbon are crucial to the accounting of GHG of waste landfilling. 10273,2009,2,4,Landscape-scale Expansion of Roesel's bush-cricket Metrioptera roeselii at the North-western Range Limit in Central Europe (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae),Range expansion linked to global warming is a widespread phenomenon among insects. This range expansion may be either gradual and on a broad-front or discontinuous following long distance dispersal. Many species of Orthoptera show a distinct wing-length dimorphism related to dispersal and rare long-wing individuals are assumed to contribute significantly to the colonisation of new habitat patches. Grid-based distribution surveys of Roesel's bush cricket Metriopera roeselii (Hagenbach 1822) at the edge of the species' range in NW' Germany were conducted in 1991| 1996 and 2004. Most newly colonised grid cells were directly adjacent to cells that were occupied in previous surveys or were connected to them by other colonised cells. The maximal distance between newly colonised grid cells and cells that were occupied in previous surveys was 6.3 km between 1991 and 1996 and 5.1 km between 1996 and 2004. The proportion of macropterous individuals sampled in 2004 was very low (1.4%). Macropterous individuals tended to occur in newly colonised| more isolated and low abundance grid cells. Hence| range expansion of M roeselii took place by short-distance colonisation from cells that were occupied in previous surveys rather than by single events of long-distance dispersal.
810,2009,4,4,Landsliding and Its Multiscale Influence on Mountainscapes,Landsliding is a complex process that modifies mountainscapes worldwide. Its severe and sometimes long-lasting negative effects contrast with the less-documented positive effects on ecosystems| raising numerous questions about the dual role of landsliding| the feedbacks between biotic and geomorphic processes| and| ultimately| the ecological and evolutionary responses of organisms. We present a conceptual model in which feedbacks between biotic and geomorphic processes| landslides| and ecosystem attributes are hypothesized to drive the dynamics of mountain ecosystems at multiple scales. This model is used to integrate and synthesize a rich| but fragmented| body of literature generated in different disciplines| and to highlight the need for profitable collaborations between biologists and geoscientists. Such efforts should help identify attributes that contribute to the resilience of mountain ecosystems| and also should help in conservation| restoration| and hazard assessment. Given the sensitivity of mountains to land-use and global climate change| these endeavors are both relevant and timely. 10093,2009,2,3,Large N(2)O emissions from cryoturbated peat soil in tundra,Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas whose concentration is increasing in the atmosphere(1). So far| the highest terrestrial nitrous oxide emissions have been measured in agricultural and tropical soils(2|3)| and nitrous oxide emissions from northern natural soils have been considered negligible(4|5). Pristine tundra| one of the largest natural land cover types in the world| is a mosaic of different surface types including bare surfaces created by cryoturbation(6|7). Here we used a static chamber method to measure nitrous oxide emissions from the discontinuous permafrost zone in subarctic East European tundra. We show that nitrous oxide emissions from bare peat surfaces in the region| known as peat circles| range between 0.9 and 1.4 g nitrous oxide m(-2) from June to October| and are equivalent to those from tropical and agricultural soils. Extrapolation of our data to the whole Arctic reveals that the emissions from these hot spots could amount to similar to 0.1 Tg nitrous oxide yr(-1)| corresponding to 4% of the global warming potential of Arctic methane emissions at present. Therefore| not only carbon| but also nitrogen stored in permafrost soils| has to be considered when assessing the present and future climatic impact of tundra. 9731,2009,5,3,Late Cretaceous seasonal ocean variability from the Arctic,The modern Arctic Ocean is regarded as a barometer of global change and amplifier of global warming(1) and therefore records of past Arctic change are critical for palaeoclimate reconstruction. Little is known of the state of the Arctic Ocean in the greenhouse period of the Late Cretaceous epoch (65-99 million years ago)| yet records from such times may yield important clues to Arctic Ocean behaviour in near-future warmer climates. Here we present a seasonally resolved Cretaceous sedimentary record from the Alpha ridge of the Arctic Ocean. This palaeo-sediment trap provides new insight into the workings of the Cretaceous marine biological carbon pump. Seasonal primary production was dominated by diatom algae but was not related to upwelling as was previously hypothesized(2). Rather| production occurred within a stratified water column| involving specially adapted species in blooms resembling those of the modern North Pacific subtropical gyre(3)| or those indicated for the Mediterranean sapropels(4). With increased CO(2) levels and warming currently driving increased stratification in the global ocean(5)| this style of production that is adapted to stratification may become more widespread. Our evidence for seasonal diatom production and flux testify to an ice-free summer| but thin accumulations of terrigenous sediment within the diatom ooze are consistent with the presence of intermittent sea ice in the winter| supporting a wide body of evidence for low temperatures in the Late Cretaceous Arctic Ocean(6-8)| rather than recent suggestions of a 15 degrees C mean annual temperature at this time(9). 9977,2009,5,4,Late Neogene paleoclimate and paleoenvironment reconstructions from the Pipe Creek Sinkhole| Indiana| USA,The Late Neogene represents warm Earth conditions immediately prior to the development of extensive northern hemisphere glaciation| and this period in Earth history may therefore provide the best available analog for the projected outcome of continued global warming. There are few interior continental sites of Late Neogene age from the eastern half of North America and subsequently very little is known about the conditions characterizing climate. The Early Pliocene (similar to 5 Ma) Pipe Creek Sinkhole (PCS) includes the sediment fill of a complex karst environment that developed in north-central Indiana| USA (Lat. 40 degrees 27' 25.4 ''. Long. 85 degrees 47' 37.2 ''). The site includes more than 3 m of high-chroma| red-colored silty-clay sediment interpreted to be terra rossa. The terra rossa delta(13)C values average -20 +/- 0.7 parts per thousand PDB and are interpreted to represent sediment deposited in a closed cave system under high summer temperatures and with well-drained soils. An in-situ paleosol at the top of the terra rossa represents a transition from a closed cave to an open environment that eventually flooded| thereby becoming a small pond. delta(13)C values from lacustrine sediments with organic matter derived dominantly from algae average -20.6 parts per thousand and suggest the pond was stagnant and enriched with bicarbonate from the underlying limestones or via aquifers. Pond sediments include abundant vertebrate fossils| which are broadly consistent with those inhabiting an open ecosystem such as a savannah or parkland. However| the PCS pollen includes low taxonomic diversity that is dominated by pine with some hickory and flowering plants| but no grass pollen. We propose two hypotheses to explain the PCS stratigraphic record: (1) The pollen assemblage may represent a local pine dominated ecosystem associated with the pond paleoenvironment| such as a riparian community| and that the greater landscape was drier and open; (2) Alternatively| the climate may have became wetter raising the elevation of the groundwater table and initiating the formation of the pond. Then in response to the wetter conditions an early succession forest ecosystem developed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10176,2009,5,4,Late Pleistocene and early Holocene climate and the beginnings of cultivation in northern Syria,Climate change has been interpreted as a contributing factor to the emergence of agriculture in the Near East. We examine how climate change may have affected the availability of food plants and their cultivation in northern Syria at the end of the Pleistocene and the beginning of the Holocene. Charred plant remains from sites representing 11 archaeological levels indicate that during the late Pleistocene rye was commonly used| together with seeds gathered from the floodplain. During the early Holocene| rye and floodplain plants go out of use and barley then emmer wheat become common| pulses| lentils| peas and vetches increase in use and figs| chickpeas and horse beans were introduced. Pre-domestic cultivation is difficult to identify in the absence of morphologically domesticated plants. We cannot identify precisely when cultivation started but the possibility of cultivation is not excluded for the late Pleistocene| however we argue that it did not become a reliable cans of subsistence until the Holocene. This period coincides with a decrease in the amplitude of climatic M oscillations and global warming. With these conditions| combined with an increase in rainfall| we suggest cultivation developed into a sustainable economy. The earliest morphologically domestic cereals found in this area date to about 10 000 cal. yr BP. These may have been slow to become established because seed for sowing may have occasionally been replenished from the wild.
9391,2009,5,4,Late Pleistocene California droughts during deglaciation and Arctic warming,Recent studies document the synchronous nature of shifts in North Atlantic regional climate| the intensity of the East Asian monsoon| and productivity and precipitation in the Cariaco Basin during the last glacial and deglacial period. Yet questions remain as to what climate mechanisms influenced continental regions far removed from the North Atlantic and beyond the direct influence of the inter-tropical convergence zone. Here| we present U-series calibrated stable isotopic and trace element time series for a speleothem from Moaning Cave on the western slope of the central Sierra Nevada| California that documents changes in precipitation that are approximately coeval with Greenland temperature changes for the period 16.5 to 8.8 ka. From 16.5 to 10.6 ka| the Moaning Cave stalagmite proxies record drier and possibly warmer conditions| signified by elevated delta(18)O| delta(13)C| [Mg]| [Sr]| and [Ba] and more radiogenic (87)Sr/(86)Sr| during Northern Hemisphere warm periods (Bolling| early and late Allerod) and wetter and possibly colder conditions during Northern Hemisphere cool periods (Older Dryas| Inter-Allerod Cold Period| and Younger Dryas). Moaning Cave stable isotope records indicate that wet conditions persisted in this area well beyond 11.5 ka| suggesting the effects of the Younger Dryas event may have been longer lived in the western Sierra Nevada than in Greenland. However| a shifting drip center and corresponding change in seepage water routing may have influenced the trace element records between 10.6 and 9.6 ka. Linkages between northern high-latitude climate and precipitation in the Sierra Nevada suggested here could indicate that| under conditions of continued global warming| this drought-prone region may experience a reduction in Pacific-sourced moisture. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10265,2009,3,3,LCA of poplar bioenergy system compared with Brassica carinata energy crop and natural gas in regional scenario,The poplar bioenergy system has been analysed applying life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare its environmental performance to: Ethiopian mustard bioenergy system and natural gas. The life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) shows that the use of fertilizers is the highest impact in four of the 10 environmental categories| representing between 39% and 67% of the impact in them. The diesel used in transport vehicles and agricultural tractors also has a significant impact in another five of the 10 analysed categories 40-85%. The poplar bioenergy system contributes to global warming with 1-90-1.98 gCO(2)eq MJ(-1) biomass produced. The production and transport as far as the thermoelectric plant of the poplar biomass consumes 0.02 MJ of primary energy per 1 MJ of biomass stored. In comparison with Ethiopian mustard and natural gas| it reduces primary energy consumption by 83% and 89% and the greenhouse gas emission by 84% and 89%| respectively. The results of the analysis support that the poplar bioenergy system is viable from an energy balance and environmental perspective for producing energy in southern Europe| as long as it is cultivated in areas where water is available. This latter point and the better environmental performance of both crops in comparison to natural gas allows us to affirm that the combination of several crops adapted to the local agro-climatic conditions of the territory will be the most suitable strategy in Mediterranean areas that wish to reach the global energy production targets in terms of biomass established by the European Union (EU). (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10173,2009,3,4,LCA of selective waste collection systems in dense urban areas,This paper presents research concerning the environmental analysis of the selective collection management of municipal solid waste. The main goal of this study is to quantify and to compare| by means of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)| the potential environmental impacts of three selective collection systems modelled on densely populated urban areas. These systems are: the mobile pneumatic| the multi-container and the door-to-door. Impact assessment method based on CML 2 baseline 2000 is applied to the different systems. The study separates and analyzes the collection systems in substages: two urban substages and one inter-city substage. At the urban level| the multi-container system has the least environmental impact of all systems. The mobile pneumatic system has greater environmental impacts in terms of global warming| fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity| terrestrial ecotoxicity| acidification and eutrophication. In this system| the pipes and the pneumatic transport have the greatest impacts. The door-to-door system has a greatest environmental impact in terms of abiotic depletion| ozone layer depletion and human toxicity. An overall evaluation of the three substages| with a sensitivity analysis| indicates that the mobile pneumatic system at an inter-city distance of 20 km shows the greatest environmental impacts and the greatest energy demand. Inter-city transport is key; the results show that from an inter-city distance of 11 km onwards| this becomes the substage which most contributes to global warming impact and energy demand| in all the systems. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9889,2009,2,4,Leaf phenology sensitivity to temperature in European trees: Do within-species populations exhibit similar responses?,Consequences of climate warming on tree phenology are readily observable| but little is known about the differences in phenological sensitivity to temperature between species and between populations within a species. The aim of the present study is to compare phenological sensitivities to temperature of seven woody species between each other and within-species between two geographical areas using both altitudinal and temporal gradients (Abies alba| Acer pseudoplatanus| Carpinus betulus| Fagus sylvatica| Fraxinus excelsior| Ilex aquifolium and Quercus petraea). The timing of leaf unfolding was monitored (i) over 2 years along two altitudinal gradients in the Pyrenees mountains (six species)| and (ii) over 22 years in Fontainebleau forest (four species). Three species were present in both areas which allowed us to compare their phenological sensitivity to temperature over altitudinal and temporal gradients. Along altitudinal gradients| we observed for all species an advance in leaf unfolding with decreasing elevation| ranging from 11 to 34 days 1000 m(-1) for beech and oak| respectively. Across the temporal gradient| we found significant advances in leaf unfolding for oak (-0.42 days year(-1)) and ash (-0.78 days year(-1)) since 1976| whereas no significant advance was observed for beech and hornbeam. For both gradients and for all species| significant correlations were found between leaf unfolding dates and temperature| except for beech in the temporal study. Moreover| we highlighted that phenological sensitivity to temperature was very similar between the two geographically separated populations (Pyrenees and Fontainebleau forests). Thus| oak had the strongest sensitivity (-7.48 and -7.26 days degrees C(-1) in altitudinal and temporal gradient| respectively) and beech had the lowest (-2.09 and -2.03 days degrees C(-1)). Our results suggest that population sensitivity to global warming might be stable for a given species| in spite of its possible local adaptation. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9354,2009,2,4,Leaf photosynthesis and simulated carbon budget of Gentiana straminea from a decade-long warming experiment,Alpine ecosystems may experience larger temperature increases due to global warming as compared with lowland ecosystems. Information on physiological adjustment of alpine plants to temperature changes can provide insights into our understanding how these plants are responding to current and future warming. We tested the hypothesis that alpine plants would exhibit acclimation in photosynthesis and respiration under long-term elevated temperature| and the acclimation may relatively increase leaf carbon gain under warming conditions. Open-top chambers (OTCs) were set up for a period of 11 years to artificially increase the temperature in an alpine meadow ecosystem. We measured leaf photosynthesis and dark respiration under different light| temperature and ambient CO(2) concentrations for Gentiana straminea| a species widely distributed on the Tibetan Plateau. Maximum rates of the photosynthetic electron transport (J(max))| RuBP carboxylation (V(cmax)) and temperature sensitivity of respiration Q(10) were obtained from the measurements. We further estimated the leaf carbon budget of G. straminea using the physiological parameters and environmental variables obtained in the study. 1) The OTCs consistently elevated the daily mean air temperature by similar to 1.6 degrees C and soil temperature by similar to 0.5 degrees C during the growing season. 2) Despite the small difference in the temperature environment| there was strong tendency in the temperature acclimation of photosynthesis. The estimated temperature optimum of light-saturated photosynthetic CO(2) uptake (A(max)) shifted similar to 1 degrees C higher from the plants under the ambient regime to those under the OTCs warming regime| and the A(max) was significantly lower in the warming-acclimated leaves than the leaves outside the OTCs. 3) Temperature acclimation of respiration was large and significant: the dark respiration rates of leaves developed in the warming regime were significantly lower than leaves from the ambient environments. 4) The simulated net leaf carbon gain was significantly lower in the in situ leaves under the OTCs warming regime than under the ambient open regime. However| in comparison with the assumed non-acclimation leaves| the in situ warming-acclimated leaves exhibited significantly higher net leaf carbon gain. 5) The results suggest that there was a strong and significant temperature acclimation in physiology of G. straminea in response to long-term warming| and the physiological acclimation can reduce the decrease of leaf carbon gain| i.e. increase relatively leaf carbon gain under the warming condition in the alpine species. 10370,2009,2,4,Leptophlebiidae (Ephemeroptera) of the alpine region of the Southern Alps| New Zealand,The alpine region of the South Island of New Zealand is the habitat of a group of endemic mayfly Species Of the genus Deleatidium| which show adaptation to an alpine tundra a environment. Their speciation may be best explained as the consequence of a series of Pleistocene ice advances and retreats. The larval stages of these species are well adapted to cold| fast water and high levels of ultraviolet radiation. Their distribution| restricted by geographic and climatic factors| renders the group vulnerable to climate change. 800,2009,2,4,Leptospirosis in the Asia Pacific region,Background: Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonotic infection that has been recognized for decades| but the problem of the disease has not been fully addressed| particularly in resource-poor| developing countries| where the major burden of the disease occurs. This paper presents an overview of the current situation of leptospirosis in the region. It describes the current trends in the epidemiology of leptospirosis| the existing surveillance systems| and presents the existing prevention and control programs in the Asia Pacific region. Methods: Data on leptospirosis in each member country were sought from official national organizations| international public health organizations| online articles and the scientific literature. Papers were reviewed and relevant data were extracted. Results: Leptospirosis is highly prevalent in the Asia Pacific region. Infections in developed countries arise mainly from occupational exposure| travel to endemic areas| recreational activities| or importation of domestic and wild animals| whereas outbreaks in developing countries are most frequently related to normal daily activities| over-crowding| poor sanitation and climatic conditions. Conclusion: In the Asia Pacific region| predominantly in developing countries| leptospirosis is largely a water-borne disease. Unless interventions to minimize exposure are aggressively implemented| the current global climate change will further aggravate the extent of the disease problem. Although trends indicate successful control of leptospirosis in some areas| there is no clear evidence that the disease has decreased in the last decade. The efficiency of surveillance systems and data collection varies significantly among the countries and areas within the region| leading to incomplete information in some instances. Thus| an accurate reflection of the true burden of the disease remains unknown. 921,2009,4,2,LESSONS LEARNED FROM IPCC AR4 Scientific Developments Needed To Understand| Predict| And Respond To Climate Change,The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global warming is "unequivocal" and that most of the observed increase since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations| with discernible human influences on ocean warming| continental-average temperatures| temperature extremes| wind patterns| and other physical and biological indicators| impacting both socioeconomic and ecological systems. It is now clear that we are committed to some level of global climate change| and it is imperative that this be considered when planning future climate research and observational strategies. The Global Climate Observing System program (GCOS)| the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)| and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) therefore initiated a process to summarize the lessons learned through AR4 Working Groups I and II and to identify a set of high-priority modeling and observational needs. Two classes of recommendations emerged. First is the need to improve climate models| observational and climate monitoring systems| and our understanding of key processes. Second| the framework for climate research and observations must be extended to document impacts and to guide adaptation and mitigation efforts. Research and observational strategies specifically aimed at improving our ability to predict and understand impacts| adaptive capacity| and societal and ecosystem vulnerabilities will serve both purposes and are the subject of the specific recommendations made in this paper. 736,2009,2,4,Let the sun shine in: effects of ultraviolet radiation on invasive pneumococcal disease risk in Philadelphia| Pennsylvania,Background: Streptococcus pneumoniae is a common cause of community acquired pneumonia and bacteremia. Excess wintertime mortality related to pneumonia has been noted for over a century| but the seasonality of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) has been described relatively recently and is poorly understood. Improved understanding of environmental influence on disease seasonality has taken on new urgency due to global climate change. Methods: We evaluated 602 cases of IPD reported in Philadelphia County| Pennsylvania| from 2002 to 2007. Poisson regression models incorporating seasonal smoothers were used to identify associations between weekly weather patterns and case counts. Associations between acute (day-to-day) environmental fluctuations and IPD occurrence were evaluated using a case-crossover approach. Effect modification across age and sex strata was explored| and meta-regression models were created using stratum-specific estimates for effect. Results: IPD incidence was greatest in the wintertime| and spectral decomposition revealed a peak at 51.0 weeks| consistent with annual periodicity. After adjustment for seasonality| yearly increases in reporting| and temperature| weekly incidence was found to be associated with clear-sky UV index (IRR per unit increase in index: 0.70 [95% CI 0.54-0.91]). The effect of UV index was highest among young strata and decreased with age. At shorter time scales| only an association with increases in ambient sulphur oxides was linked to disease risk (OR for highest tertile of exposure 0.75| 95% CI 0.60 to 0.93). Conclusion: We confirmed the wintertime predominance of IPD in a major urban center. The major predictor of IPD in Philadelphia is extended periods of low UV radiation| which may explain observed wintertime seasonality. The mechanism of action of diminished light exposure on disease occurrence may be due to direct effects on pathogen survival or host immune function via altered 1|25-(OH)(2)-vitamin-D metabolism. These findings may suggest less diminution in future IPD risk with climate change than would be expected if wintertime seasonality was driven by temperature. 958,2009,5,4,LIBOCEDRUS MACROFOSSILS FROM TASMANIA (AUSTRALIA),Fossilized Libocedrus (Cupressaceae) foliage from three Tasmanian fossil sites-Regatta Point (similar to 52-51 Ma)| Lea River (similar to 32-30 Ma)| and Balfour (similar to 29-21 Ma)-is described| and three new species are recognized. Brief descriptions of extant Libocedrus precede the fossil descriptions. Libocedrus leaf morphology has remained much the same for 30 Myr. Variations in leaf size| stomatal frequency| size| and distribution are indicative of prevailing climatic conditions. Although Libocedrus appears to have had a quite widespread distribution in southeastern Australia in the past| the genus is now found only in New Zealand and New Caledonia. Its disappearance from Tasmania and the Australian mainland is linked to continental rearrangement and global climate change. A single specimen from Balfour shares features common to extant Libocedrus and the closely related monotypic cupressaceous genus Diselma. 9368,2009,4,4,Lichens and bryophytes of the alpine and subalpine zones on Katahdin| Maine| II: Lichens,A total of 293 different lichens (and lichenicolous fungi) were found above an elevation of 884 m on Katahdin during fieldwork from 2000 to 2004 and from study of previously collected herbarium specimens. Thirteen of these are new to North America| 39 additional lichens are new to northeastern United States and 26 additional ones are new to Maine; three additional taxa are almost certainly new to science but are not formally described in this study. We identified eight distinct lichen habitats on Katahdin: (1) A1| exposed alpine tundra and fellfields; (2) A2| high elevation alpine sites protected from northwest winds; (3) A3| east-facing alpine late-snow areas; (4) A4| alpine krummholz; (5) A5| cirque headwalls facing east and north; (6) A6| cirque headwall facing southeast; (7) B1| exposed low-altitude tundra| talus and krummholz; and (8) B2| subalpine forests. Each habitat except A4 had numerous lichens (10-56 taxa) found in none of the others| and each differed statistically from two to six other habitats by a quantitative measure of the Arctic-boreal-temperate (ABT) distribution of its lichens. Habitat A3 had| on average| the most Arctic lichens| followed by A1| A2| A5| B1| A6 and A4| with B2 having the fewest Arctic lichens and the most with a temperate distribution. Lichen ABT values for the eight habitats are well predicted (R(2) = 96.9%) by a multiple regression equation incorporating three independent variables: average elevation above sea level of the lichens collected in a habitat class; an estimate of solar gain for each of the eight habitats; and the presence or absence of trees (including krummholz). We compared our results with those for Mt. Albert| Gaspe| Quebec| the only other comprehensive study of alpine lichens in northeastern North America| for such parameters as species presence/absence| substrata and ABT value. We suggest that future studies looking into effects of global warming or increases or decreases in air pollution will be facilitated by the study of certain habitats rather than the entire alpine and subalpine Katahdin region.
10362,2009,2,4,LiDAR for monitoring mass movements in permafrost environments at the cirque Hinteres Langtal| Austria| between 2000 and 2008,Permafrost areas receive more and more attention in terms of natural hazards in recent years due to ongoing global warming. Active rockglaciers are mixtures of debris and ice (of different origin) in high-relief environments indicating permafrost conditions for a substantial period of time. Style and velocity of the downward movement of this debrisice-mass is influenced by topoclimatic conditions. The rockglacier Hinteres Langtalkar is stage of extensive modifications in the last decade as a consequence of an extraordinary high surface movement. Terrestrial laserscanning (or LiDAR) campaigns have been out once or twice per year since 2000 to monitor surface dynamics at the highly active front of the rockglacier. High resolution digital terrain models are the basis for annual and inter-annual analysis of surface elevation changes. Results show that the observed area shows predominantly positive surface elevation changes causing a consequent lifting of the surface over the entire period. Nevertheless a decreasing surface lifting of the observed area in the last three years leads to the assumption that the material transport from the upper part declines in the last years. Furthermore the rockglacier front is characterized by extensive mass wasting and partly disintegration of the rockglacier body. As indicated by the LiDAR results as well as from field evidence| this rockglacier front seems to represent a permafrost influenced landslide. 9780,2009,3,4,Life cycle assessment of Australian automotive door skins,Policy initiatives| such as the EU End of Life Vehicle (ELV) Directive for only 5% landfilling by 2015| are increasing the pressure for higher material recyclability rates. This is stimulating research into material alternatives and end-of-life strategies for automotive components. This study presents a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) on an Australian automotive component| namely an exterior door skin. The functional unit for this study is one door skin set (4 exterior skins). The material alternatives are steel| which is currently used by Australian manufacturers| aluminium and glass-fiber reinforced polypropylene composite. Only the inputs and outputs relative to the door skin production| use and end-of-life phases were considered within the system boundary. Landfill| energy recovery and mechanical recycling were the end-of-life phases considered. The aim of the study is to highlight the most environmentally attractive material and end-of-life option. The LCA was performed according to the ISO 14040 standard series. All information considered in this study (use of fossil and non fossil based energy resources| water| chemicals etc.) were taken up in in-depth data. The data for the production| use and end-of-life phases of the door skin set was based upon softwares such as SimaPro and GEMIS which helped in the development of the inventory for the different end-of-life scenarios. In other cases| the inventory was developed using derivations obtained from published journals. Some data was obtained from GM-Holden and the Co-operative research Centre for Advanced Automotive Technology (AutoCRC)| in Australia. In cases where data from the Australian economy was unavailable| such as the data relating to energy recovery methods| a generic data set based on European recycling companies was employed. The characterization factors used for normalization of data were taken from (Saling et. al. Int J Life Cycle Assess 7(4):203-218 2002) which detailed the method of carrying out an LCA. The production phase results in maximum raw material consumption for all materials| and it is higher for metals than for the composite. Energy consumption is greatest in the use phase| with maximum consumption for steel. Aluminium consumes most energy in the production phase. Global Warming Potential (GWP) also follows a trend similar to that of energy consumption. Photo Oxidants Creation Potential (POCP) is the highest for the landfill scenario for the composite| followed by steel and aluminium. Acidification Potential (AP) is the highest for all the end-of-life scenarios of the composite. Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) is the highest for the metals. The net water emissions are also higher for composite in comparison to metals despite high pollution in the production phases of metallic door skins. Solid wastes are higher for the metallic door skins. The composite door skin has the lowest energy consumption in the production phase| due to the low energy requirements during the manufacturing of E-glass and its fusion with polypropylene to form sheet molding compounds. In general| the air emissions during the use phase are strongly dependent on the mass of the skins| with higher emissions for the metals than for the composite. Material recovery through recycling is the highest in metals due to efficient separation techniques| while mechanical recycling is the most efficient for the composite. The heavy steel skins produce the maximum solid wastes primarily due to higher fuel consumption. Water pollution reduction benefit is highest in case of metals| again due to the high efficiency of magnetic separation technique in the case of steel and eddy current separation technique in the case of aluminium. Material recovery in these metals reduces the amount of water needed to produce a new door skin set (water employed mainly in the ingot casting stage). Moreover| the use of heavy metals| inorganic salts and other chemicals is minimized by efficient material recovery. The use of the studied type of steel for the door skins is a poor environmental option in every impact category. Aluminium and composite materials should be considered to develop a more sustainable and energy efficient automobile. In particular| this LCA study shows that glass-fiber composite skins with mechanical recycling or energy recovery method could be environmentally desirable| compared to aluminium and steel skins. However| the current limit on the efficiency of recycling is the prime barrier to increasing the sustainability of composite skins. The study is successful in developing a detailed LCA for the three different types of door skin materials and their respective recycling or end-of-life scenarios. The results obtained could be used for future work on an eco-efficiency portfolio for the entire car. However| there is a need for a detailed assessment of toxicity and risk potentials arising from each of the four different types of door skin sets. This will require greater communication between academia and the automotive industry to improve the quality of the LCA data. Sensitivity analysis needs to be performed such as the assessment of the impact of varying substitution factors on the life cycle of a door skin. Incorporation of door skin sets made of new biomaterials need to be accounted for as another functional unit in future LCA studies. 9932,2009,3,4,Life cycle assessment of bagasse waste management options,Bagasse is mostly utilized for steam and power production For domestic sugar mills. There have been a number of alternatives that could Well be applied to manage bagasse| such as pulp production| conversion to biogas and electricity production. The selection of proper alternatives depends significantly on the appropriateness of the technology both from the technical and the environmental points of view. This work proposes a simple model based on the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the environmental impacts| of various alternatives for dealing with bagasse waste. The environmental aspects Of concern included global warming potential| acidification potential| eutrophication potential and photochemical oxidant creation. Four waste management scenarios for bagasse were evaluated: landfilling with utilization of landfill gas| anaerobic digestion with biogas production| incineration for power generation| and pulp production. In landfills| environmental impacts depended significantly on the biogas collection efficiency| whereas incineration of bagasse to electricity in the power plant showed better environmental performance than that of conventional low biogas collection efficiency landfills. Anaerobic digestion of bagasse in a control biogas reactor was superior to the other two energy generation options in all environmental aspects. Although the use of bagasse in pulp mills created relatively high environmental burdens| the results from the LCA revealed that other stages of the life cycle produced relatively small impacts and that this option might be the most environmentally benign alternative. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10319,2009,3,3,Life cycle assessment of composite materials made of recycled thermoplastics combined with rice husks and cotton linters,The goal of this study is to analyze the environmental impact of new composite materials obtained from the combination of recycled thermoplastics (polypropylene [PP] and high-density polyethylene [HDPE]) and biodegradable waste of little economic value| namely| rice husks and recycled cotton. The environmental impact of these materials is compared to the impact of virgin PP and HDPE using life cycle assessment. From-cradle-to-grave life cycle inventory studies were performed for 1 kg of each of the three new composites: PP+cotton linters| PP+rice husks| and HDPE+cotton linters. Inventory data for the recycling of thermoplastics and cotton were obtained from a number of recycling firms in Spain| while environmental data concerning rice husks were obtained mainly from one rice-processing company located in Spain. Life cycle inventory data for virgin thermoplastics were acquired from PlasticsEurope. Two different scenarios-incineration and landfilling-were considered for the assessment of disposal phase. A quantitative impact assessment was performed for four impact categories: global warming over a hundred years| nonrenewable energy depletion| acidification| and eutrophication. The composites subject to analysis exhibited a significantly reduced environmental impact during the materials acquisition and processing phases compared to conventional virgin thermoplastics in all of the impact categories considered. The use of fertilizers for rice cultivation| however| impaired the results of the rice husk composite in the eutrophication category where it nevertheless outperformed its conventional counterparts. The compounding phase fundamentally implies an electric consumption. The disposal phase was analyzed with regard to emissions in the global warming category. Composites obtained from renewable sources are still in an incipient state of development in comparison with petroleum-derived plastics. In the future| as mass production of these plastics becomes more widespread| their environmental impact can be expected to reach lower levels than those obtained in our study. The new materials exhibited adequate mechanical performance for the application analyzed (structures used in aquaculture). The composites subject to analysis exhibited a significantly reduced environmental impact compared to conventional virgin thermoplastics using 1 kg of material as a functional unit. In accordance with the International Organization for Standardization 14044:2006 standard| it would be advisable to avoid impact allocation. This posed some difficulties| since rice husks are a coproduct of rice. Thus| some impact allocation was done in our study on the basis of economic value. It would also be advisable to take the land use impact category into consideration when performing comparative studies between composites and conventional plastics| albeit the definition of this category is currently the subject of scientific debate. 9864,2009,3,4,Life cycle assessment of natural gas power plants in Thailand,The main primary energy for electricity in Thailand is natural gas| accounting for 73% of the grid mix. Electricity generation from natural gas combustion is associated with substantial air emissions. The two technologies currently used in Thailand| thermal and combined cycle power plant| have been evaluated for the potential environmental impacts in a "cradle-to-grid" study according to the life cycle assessment (LCA) method. This study evaluates the environmental impacts of each process of the natural gas power production over the entire life cycle and compares two different power plant technologies currently used in Thailand| namely| combined cycle and thermal. LCA is used as a tool for the assessment of resource consumption and associated impacts generated from utilization of natural gas in power production. The details follow the methodology outlined in ISO 14040. The scope of this research includes natural gas extraction| natural gas separation| natural gas transmission| and natural gas power production. Most of the inventory data have been collected from Thailand| except for the upstream of fuel oil and fuel transmission| which have been computed from Greenhouse gases| Regulated Emissions| and Energy use in Transportation version 1.7 and Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems version 4.3. The impact categories considered are global warming| acidification| photochemical ozone formation| and nutrient enrichment potential (NEP). The comparison reveals that the combined cycle power plant| which has a higher efficiency| performs better than the thermal power plant for global warming potential (GWP)| acidification potential (ACP)| and photochemical ozone formation potential (POCP)| but not for NEP where the thermal power plant is preferable. For the thermal power plant| the most significant environmental impacts are from power production followed by upstream of fuel oil| natural gas extraction| separation| and transportation. For the combined cycle power plant| the most significant environmental impacts are from power production followed by natural gas extraction| separation| and transportation. The significant difference between the two types of power production is mainly from the combustion process and feedstock in power plant. The thermal power plant uses a mix of natural gas (56% by energy content) and fuel oil (44% by energy content); whereas| the combined cycle power plant operates primarily on natural gas. The largest contribution to GWP| ACP| and NEP is from power production for both thermal as well as combined cycle power plants. The POCP for the thermal power plant is also from power production; whereas| for combined cycle power plant| it is mainly from transmission of natural gas. In this research| we have examined the environmental impact of electricity generation technology between thermal and combined cycle natural gas power plants. This is the overview of the whole life cycle of natural gas power plant| which will help in decision making. The results of this study will be useful for future power plants as natural gas is the major feedstock being promoted in Thailand for power production. Also| these results will be used in further research for comparison with other feedstocks and power production technologies. 10304,2009,3,4,Life cycle assessment of offset printed matter with EDIP97: how important are emissions of chemicals?,Existing product life cycle assessment (LCA) studies on offset printed matter all point at paper as the overall dominating cause of environmental impacts. All studies focus on energy consumption and the dominating role of paper is primarily based on the energy-related impact categories: global warming| acidification and nutrient enrichment. Ecotoxicity and human toxicity| which are related to emissions of chemicals| etc.| are only included to a limited degree or not at all. In this paper we include the impacts from chemicals emitted during the life cycle of sheet fed offset printed matter. This is done by making use of some of the newest knowledge about emissions from the production at the printing industry combined with knowledge about the composition of the printing materials used. In cases with available data also upstream emissions from the production of printing materials are included. The results show that inclusion of the chemical emission-related impacts makes the EDIP97 impact profile of sheet fed offset products much more varied| as well for the normalised profiles as for the profiles weighted by distance to political environmental targets. Especially the ecotoxicity impact potential related to the production stage may contribute significantly| and the use of paper no longer becomes the overall dominating factor driving the environmental impacts. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9783,2009,3,3,Life cycle assessment of primary magnesium production using the Pidgeon process in China,China has been the largest primary magnesium producer in the world since year 2000 and is an important part of the global magnesium supply chain. Almost all of the primary magnesium in China is produced using the Pidgeon process invented in the 1940s in Canada. The environmental problems of the primary magnesium production with the Pidgeon process have already attracted much attention of the local government and enterprises. The main purposes of this research are to investigate the environmental impacts of magnesium production and to determine the accumulative environmental performances of three different scenarios. System boundary included the cradle-to-gate life cycle of magnesium production| including dolomite ore extraction| ferrosilicon production| the Pidgeon process| transportation of materials| and emissions from thermal power plant. The life cycle assessment (LCA) case study was performed on three different fuel use scenarios from coal as the overall fuel to two kinds of gaseous fuels| the producer gas and coke oven gas. The burden use of gaseous fuels was also considered. The procedures| details| and results obtained are based on the application of the existing international standards of LCA| i.e.| the ISO 14040. Depletion of abiotic resources| global warming| acidification| and human toxicity were adopted as the midpoint impact categories developed by the problem-oriented approach of CML to estimate the characterized results of the case study. The local characterization and normalization factors of abiotic resources were used to calculate abiotic depletion potential (ADP). The analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weight factors. Using the Umberto version 4.0| the emissions of dolomite ore extraction were estimated and the transportation models of the three scenarios were designed. The emissions inventory showed that both the Pidgeon process of magnesium production and the Fe-Si production were mainly to blame for the total pollutant emissions in the life cycle of magnesium production. The characterized results indicated that ADP| acidification potential| and human toxicity potential decreased cumulatively from scenarios 1 to 3| with the exception of global warming potential. The final single scores indicated that the accumulative environmental performance of scenario 3 was the best compared with scenarios 1 and 2. The impact of abiotic resources depletion deserves more attention although the types and the amount of mineral resources for Mg production are abundant in China. This study suggested that producer gas was an alternative fuel for magnesium production rather than the coal burned directly in areas where the cost of oven gas-produced coke is high. The utilization of "clean" energy and the reduction of greenhouse gases and acidic gases emission were the main goals of the technological improvements and cleaner production of the magnesium industry in China. This paper has demonstrated that the theory and method of LCA are actually helpful for the research on the accumulative environmental performance of primary magnesium production. Further studies with "cradle-to-cradle" scheme are recommended. Furthermore| other energy sources used in magnesium production and the cost of energy production could be treated in further research. 9712,2009,3,3,Life Cycle Assessment of Second Generation Bioethanols Produced From Scandinavian Boreal Forest Resources A Regional Analysis for Middle Norway,The boreal forests of Scandinavia offer a considerable resource base| and use of the resource for the production of less carbon-intensive alternative transport fuel is one strategy being considered in Norway. Here| we quantify the resource potential and investigate the environmental implications of wood-based transportation relative to a fossil reference system for a specific region in Norway. We apply a well-to-wheel life cycle assessment to evaluate four E85 production system designs based on two distinct wood-to-ethanol conversion technologies. We form best and worst case scenarios to assess the sensitivity of impact results through the adjustment of key parameters| such as biomass-to-ethanol conversion efficiency and upstream biomass transport distance. Depending on the system design| global warming emission reductions of 46% to 68% per-MJ-gasoline avoided can be realized in the region| along with reductions in most of the other environmental impact categories considered. We find that the region's surplus forest-bioenergy resources are vast; use for the production of bioethanol today would have resulted in the displacement of 55% to 68% of the region's gasoline-based global warming emission-or 6% to 8% of Norway's total global warming emissions associated with road transportation. 10285,2009,3,4,Life cycle assessment of solid waste management options for Eskisehir| Turkey,Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was used to determine the optimum municipal solid waste (MSW) management strategy for Eskisehir city. Eskisehir is one of the developing cities of Turkey where a total of approximately 750 tons/day of waste is generated. An effective MSW management system is needed in this city since the generated MSW is dumped in ail unregulated dumping site that has no liner| no biogas capture| etc. Therefore| five different scenarios were developed as alternatives to the current waste management system. Collection and transportation of waste| a material recovery facility (MRF)| recycling| composting| incineration and landfilling processes were considered in these scenarios. SimaPro7 libraries were used to obtain background data for the life cycle inventory. One ton of municipal solid waste of Eskisehir was selected as the functional unit. The alternative scenarios were compared through the CML 2000 method and these comparisons were carried out from the abiotic depletion| global warming| human toxicity| acidification| eutrophication and photochemical ozone depletion points of view. According to the comparisons and sensitivity analysis| composting scenario| S3| is the more environmentally preferable alternative. In this study waste management alternatives were investigated only oil ail environmental point of view. For that reason| it might be Supported with other decision-making tools that consider the economic and social effects of solid waste management. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10103,2009,3,3,Life cycle assessment of soybean-based biodiesel in Argentina for export,Regional specificities are a key factor when analyzing the environmental impact of a biofuel pathway through a life cycle assessment (LCA). Due to different energy mixes| transport distances| agricultural practices and land use changes| results can significantly vary from one country to another. The Republic of Argentina is the first exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third largest soybean producer in the world| and therefore| soybean-based biodiesel production is expected to significantly increase in the near future| mostly for exportation. Moreover| Argentinean biodiesel producers will need to evaluate the environmental performances of their product in order to comply with sustainability criteria being developed. However| because of regional specificities| the environmental performances of this biofuel pathway can be expected to be different from those obtained for other countries and feedstocks previously studied. This work aims at analyzing the environmental impact of soybean-based biodiesel production in Argentina for export. The relevant impact categories account for the primary non-renewable energy consumption (CED)| the global warming potential (GWP)| the eutrophication potential (EP)| the acidification potential (AP)| the terrestrial ecotoxicity (TE)| the aquatic ecotoxicity (AE)| the human toxicity (HT) and land use competition (LU). The paper tackles the feedstock and country specificities in biodiesel production by comparing the results of soybean-based biodiesel in Argentina with other reference cases. Emphasis is put on explaining the factors that contribute most to the final results and the regional specificities that lead to different results for each biodiesel pathway. The Argentinean (AR) biodiesel pathway was modelled through an LCA and was compared with reference cases available in the ecoinventA (R) 2.01 database| namely| soybean-based biodiesel production in Brazil (BR) and the United States (US)| rapeseed-based biodiesel production in the European Union (EU) and Switzerland (CH) and palm-oil-based biodiesel production in Malaysia (MY). In all cases| the systems were modelled from feedstock production to biodiesel use as B100 in a 28 t truck in CH. Furthermore| biodiesel pathways were compared with fossil low-sulphur diesel produced and used in CH. The LCA was performed according to the ISO standards. The life cycle inventory and the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) were performed in Excel spreadsheets using the ecoinventA (R) 2.01 database. The cumulative energy demand (CED) and the GWP were estimated through the CED for fossil and nuclear energy and the IPCC 2001 (climate change) LCIA methods| respectively. Other impact categories were assessed according to CML 2001| as implemented in ecoinvent. As the product is a fuel for transportation (service)| the system was defined for one vehicle kilometre (functional unit) and was divided into seven unit processes| namely| agricultural phase| soybean oil extraction and refining| transesterification| transport to port| transport to the destination country border| distribution and utilisation. The Argentinean pathway results in the highest GWP| CED| AE and HT compared with the reference biofuel pathways. Compared with the fossil reference| all impact categories are higher for the AR case| except for the CED. The most significant factor that contributes to the environmental impact in the Argentinean case varies depending on the evaluated category. Land provision through deforestation for soybean cultivation is the most impacting factor of the AR biodiesel pathway for the GWP| the CED and the HT categories. Whilst nitrogen oxide emissions during the fuel use are the main cause of acidification| nitrate leaching during soybean cultivation is the main factor of eutrophication. LU is almost totally affected by arable land occupation for soybean cultivation. Cypermethrin used as pesticide in feedstock production accounts for almost the total impact on TE and AE. The sensitivity analysis shows that an increase of 10% in the soybean yield| whilst keeping the same inputs| will reduce the total impact of the system. Avoiding deforestation is the main challenge to improve the environmental performances of soybean-based biodiesel production in AR. If the soybean expansion can be done on marginal and set-aside agricultural land| the negative impact of the system will be significantly reduced. Further implementation of crops' successions| soybean inoculation| reduced tillage and less toxic pesticides will also improve the environmental performances. Using ethanol as alcohol in the transesterification process could significantly improve the energy balance of the Argentinean pathway. The main explaining factors depend on regional specificities of the system that lead to different results from those obtained in the reference cases. Significantly different results can be obtained depending on the level of detail of the input data| the use of punctual or average data and the assumptions made to build up the LCA inventory. Further improvement of the AR biodiesel pathways should be done in order to comply with international sustainability criteria on biofuel production. Due to the influence of land use changes in the final results| more efforts should be made to account for land use changes others than deforestation. More data are needed to determine the part of deforestation attributable to soybean cultivation. More efforts should be done to improve modelling of interaction between variables and previous crops in the agricultural phase| future transesterification technologies and market prices evolution. In order to assess more accurately the environmental impact of soybean-based biodiesel production in Argentina| further considerations should be made to account for indirect land use changes| domestic biodiesel consumption and exportation to other regions| production scale and regional georeferenced differentiation of production systems. 10104,2009,3,4,Life cycle assessment of two baby food packaging alternatives: glass jars vs. plastic pots,This paper compares the life cycle assessment (LCA) of two packaging alternatives used for baby food produced by Nestl|: plastic pot and glass jar. The study considers the environmental impacts associated with packaging systems used to provide one baby food meal in France| Spain| and Germany in 2007. In addition| alternate logistical scenarios are considered which are independent of the two packaging options. The 200-g packaging size is selected as the basis for this study. Two other packaging sizes are assessed in the sensitivity analysis. Because results are intended to be disclosed to the public| this study underwent a critical review by an external panel of LCA experts. The LCA is performed in accordance to the international standards ISO 14040 and ISO 14044. The packaging systems include the packaging production| the product assembly| the preservation process| the distribution| and the packaging end-of-life. The production of the content (before preservation process)| as well as the use phase are not taken into account as they are considered not to change when changing packaging. The inventory is based on data obtained from the baby food producer and the suppliers| data from the scientific literature| and data from the ecoinvent database. Special care is taken to implement a system expansion approach for end-of-life open and closed loop recycling and energy production (ISO 14044). A comprehensive impact assessment is performed using two life cycle impact assessment methodologies: IMPACT 2002+ and CML 2001. An extensive uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo as well as an extensive sensitivity study are performed on the inventory and the reference flows| respectively. When looking at the impacts due to preservation process and packaging (considering identical distribution distances)| we observe a small but significant environmental benefit of the plastic pot system over the glass jar system. Depending on the country| the impact is reduced by 14% to 27% for primary energy| 28% to 31% for global warming| 31% to 34% for respiratory inorganics| and 28% to 31% for terrestrial acidification/nutrification. The environmental benefit associated with the change in packaging mainly results from (a) production of plastic pot (including its end-of-life; 43% to 51% of total benefit)| (b) lighter weight of packaging positively impacting transportation (20% to 35% of total benefit)| and (c) new preservation process permitted by the plastic system (23% to 34% of total benefit). The jar or pot (including cap or lid| cluster| stretch film| and label) represents approximately half of the life cycle impacts| the logistics approximately one fourth| and the rest (especially on-site energy| tray| and hood) one fourth. The sensitivity analysis shows that assumptions made in the basic scenarios are rather conservative for plastic pots and that the conclusions for the 200-g packaging size also apply to other packaging sizes. The uncertainty analysis performed on the inventory for the German market situation shows that the plastic pot system has less impact than the glass jar system while considering similar distribution distances with a confidence level above 97% for most impact categories. There is opportunity for further improvement independent of the type of packaging used| such as by reducing distribution distances while still optimizing lot size. The validity of the main conclusions presented in this study is confirmed by results of both impact assessment methodologies IMPACT 2002+ and CML 2001. For identical transportation distances| the plastic pot system shows a small but significant reduction in environmental burden compared to the glass jar system. As food distribution plays an important role in the overall life cycle burdens and may vary between scenarios| it is important to avoid additional transportation of the packaged food in order to maintain or even improve the advantage of the plastic pot system. The present study focuses on the comparison of packaging systems and directly related consequences. It is recommended that further environmental optimization of the product also includes food manufacturing (before preservation process) and the supply chain of raw materials. 10164,2009,3,4,Life Cycle Assessment of urban wastewater reuse with ozonation as tertiary treatment A focus on toxicity-related impacts,Life Cycle Assessment has been used to compare different scenarios involving wastewater reuse| with special focus on toxicity-related impact categories. The study is based on bench-scale experiments applying ozone and ozone in combination with hydrogen peroxide to a wastewater effluent from a Spanish sewage treatment plant. Two alternative characterisation. models have been used to account for toxicity of chemical substances| namely USES-LCA and EDIP97. Four alternative scenarios have been assessed: wastewater discharge plus desalination supply| wastewater reuse without tertiary treatment| wastewater reuse after applying a tertiary treatment consisting on ozonation| and wastewater reuse after applying ozonation in combination with hydrogen peroxide. The results highlight the importance of including wastewater pollutants in LCA of wastewater systems assessing toxicity| since the contribution of wastewater pollutants to the overall toxicity scores in this case study can be above 90%. Key pollutants here are not only heavy metals and other priority pollutants| but also non-regulated pollutants such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products. Wastewater reuse after applying any of the tertiary treatments considered appears as the best choice from an ecotoxicity perspective. As for human toxicity| differences between scenarios are smaller| and taking into account the experimental and modelling uncertainty| the benefits of tertiary treatment are not so clear. From a global warming potential perspective| tertiary treatments involve a potential 85% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions when compared with desalination. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9636,2009,3,4,Life cycle assessment of wood-based heating in Norway,In this study| we evaluate the environmental effects of wood-based household heating. Wood is a significant source of household heating in Norway| and a comparative life cycle assessment of a wood-based heating system using an old and a modern stove was conducted to estimate the total life cycle benefits associated with the change from old to new combustion technology. The study uses a new approach to complete the inventory. Input-output data are used in combination with the Leontief price model to estimate inputs of products and services from the background economy to the birch wood supply chain. When comparing new and old stove technology| the results show that the new technology contributes to a significantly improved performance (28-80%) for all types of environmental impact studied. As there is a large share of old wood stoves still in use| replacing the old stoves with new ones can lead to substantial reductions in environmental impacts| especially impacts affecting human health. The use phase| i.e.| wood combustion| is responsible for over 60% of the impact within all categories. Both the old and new stove provide heating with emissions of greenhouse gases ranging from one third (new stove| similar to 80 g CO(2)-eq/kWh) to half (old stove| similar to 110 g CO(2)-eq/kWh) of the impacts compared to electricity use from the Nordic electricity mix (similar to 210 g CO(2)-eq/kWh) to heat the house. Combustion of the wood is found to be most important for all types of impacts| even for global warming| where the CO(2) emissions from combustion are treated as "climate neutral." Products of incomplete combustion are the reason for this| as well as the high contribution to other impact categories. Emission factors for these substances are subject to high uncertainty. Although the combustion phase is the most important stage in the life cycle| transportation distances can play an important role. To render wood as environmentally benign as possible| one should thus seek to shorten the distances from producer to consumer. There is a significant difference in the life cycle performance of a wood stove using modern technology versus older technologies within all impact categories. In addition| there is a preference to use locally produced firewood over wood transported over long distances. A strong emphasis on phasing out old woodstoves should be maintained and is well justified. 9842,2009,3,4,Life cycle impact assessment of various waste conversion technologies,Advanced thermal treatment technologies utilizing pyrolysis or gasification| as well as a combined approach| are introduced as sustainable methods to treat wastes in Singapore. Eight different technologies are evaluated: pyrolysis-gasification of MSW: pyrolysis of MSW; thermal cracking gasification of granulated MSW; combined pyrolysis| gasification and oxidation of MSW: steam gasification of wood: circulating fluidized bed (CFB) gasification of organic wastes; gasification of RDF; and the gasification of tyres. Life cycle assessment is carried out to determine the environmental impacts of the various waste conversion systems including global warming potential| acidification potential| terrestrial eutrophication and ozone photochemical formation. The normalization and weighting results| calculated according to Singapore national emission inventories| showed that the two highest impacts are from thermal cracking gasification of granulated MSW and the gasification of RDF; and the least are from the steam gasification of wood and the pyrolysis-gasification of MSW. A simplified life cycle cost comparison showed that the two most costs-effective waste conversion systems are the CFB gasification of organic waste and the combined pyrolysis| gasification and oxidation of MSW. The least favorable - highest environmental impact as well as highest costs - are the thermal cracking gasification of granulated MSW and the gasification of tyres. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9846,2009,3,3,Life-cycle assessment of the municipal solid waste management system in Hangzhou| China (EASEWASTE),With the purpose of assessing the environmental impacts and benefits of the current municipal solid waste management system and two modified systems| EASEWASTE| a life-cycle-based model| was used to evaluate the waste system of Hangzhou city in China. An integrated model was established| including waste generation| collection| transportation| treatment| disposal and accompanying external processes. The results showed that CH(4) released from landfilling was the primary pollutant contributing to global warming| and HCl and NH(3) from incineration contributed most to acidification. Material recycling and incineration with energy recovery were important because of the induced savings in material production based on virgin materials and in energy production based on coal combustion. A modified system in which waste is transported to the nearest incinerators would be relatively better than the current system| mainly due to the decrease of pollution from landfilled waste and the increase in energy production from waste avoiding energy production by traditional power plants. A ban on free plastic bags for shopping was shown to reduce most environmental impacts due to saved oil resources and other materials used in producing the plastic bags. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the results. LCA methodology and a model like EASEWASTE are very suitable for evaluating the overall environmental consequences| and can be used for decision support and strategic planning in developing countries such as China where pollution control has become increasingly important with the rapid increase of waste generation as well as the increasing public awareness of environmental protection. 9512,2009,3,4,Life-Cycle Energy Demand and Global Warming Potential of Computational Logic,Computational logic| in the form of semiconductor chips of the complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) transistor structure| is used in personal computers| wireless devices| IT network infrastructure| and nearly all modern electronics. This Study provides a life-cycle energy analysis for CMOS chips over 7 technology generations with the purpose of comparing energy demand and global warming potential (GWP) impacts of the life-cycle stages| examining trends in these impacts over time and evaluating their sensitivity to data uncertainty and changes in production metrics such as yield. A hybrid life-cycle assessment (LCA) model is used. While life-cycle energy and GWP of emissions have increased on the basis of a wafer or die| these impacts have been reducing per unit of computational power. Sensitivity analysis of the model shows that impacts have the highest relative sensitivity to wafer yield| line yield| and die size and largest absolute sensitivity to the use-phase power demand of the chip. 9956,2009,3,4,Lifecycle assessment of fuel ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil,This paper presents the lifecycle assessment (LCA) of fuel ethanol| as 100% of the vehicle fuel| from sugarcane in Brazil. The functional unit is 10|000 km run in an urban area by a car with a 1|600-cm(3) engine running on fuel hydrated ethanol| and the resulting reference flow is 1|000 kg of ethanol. The product system includes agricultural and industrial activities| distribution| cogeneration of electricity and steam| ethanol use during car driving| and industrial by-products recycling to irrigate sugarcane fields. The use of sugarcane by the ethanol agribusiness is one of the foremost financial resources for the economy of the Brazilian rural area| which occupies extensive areas and provides far-reaching potentials for renewable fuel production. But| there are environmental impacts during the fuel ethanol lifecycle| which this paper intents to analyze| including addressing the main activities responsible for such impacts and indicating some suggestions to minimize the impacts. This study is classified as an applied quantitative research| and the technical procedure to achieve the exploratory goal is based on bibliographic revision| documental research| primary data collection| and study cases at sugarcane farms and fuel ethanol industries in the northeast of SA o pound Paulo State| Brazil. The methodological structure for this LCA study is in agreement with the International Standardization Organization| and the method used is the Environmental Design of Industrial Products. The lifecycle impact assessment (LCIA) covers the following emission-related impact categories: global warming| ozone formation| acidification| nutrient enrichment| ecotoxicity| and human toxicity. The results of the fuel ethanol LCI demonstrate that even though alcohol is considered a renewable fuel because it comes from biomass (sugarcane)| it uses a high quantity and diversity of nonrenewable resources over its lifecycle. The input of renewable resources is also high mainly because of the water consumption in the industrial phases| due to the sugarcane washing process. During the lifecycle of alcohol| there is a surplus of electric energy due to the cogeneration activity. Another focus point is the quantity of emissions to the atmosphere and the diversity of the substances emitted. Harvesting is the unit process that contributes most to global warming. For photochemical ozone formation| harvesting is also the activity with the strongest contributions due to the burning in harvesting and the emissions from using diesel fuel. The acidification impact potential is mostly due to the NOx emitted by the combustion of ethanol during use| on account of the sulfuric acid use in the industrial process and because of the NOx emitted by the burning in harvesting. The main consequence of the intensive use of fertilizers to the field is the high nutrient enrichment impact potential associated with this activity. The main contributions to the ecotoxicity impact potential come from chemical applications during crop growth. The activity that presents the highest impact potential for human toxicity (HT) via air and via soil is harvesting. Via water| HT potential is high in harvesting due to lubricant use on the machines. The normalization results indicate that nutrient enrichment| acidification| and human toxicity via air and via water are the most significant impact potentials for the lifecycle of fuel ethanol. The fuel ethanol lifecycle contributes negatively to all the impact potentials analyzed: global warming| ozone formation| acidification| nutrient enrichment| ecotoxicity| and human toxicity. Concerning energy consumption| it consumes less energy than its own production largely because of the electricity cogeneration system| but this process is highly dependent on water. The main causes for the biggest impact potential indicated by the normalization is the nutrient application| the burning in harvesting and the use of diesel fuel. The recommendations for the ethanol lifecycle are: harvesting the sugarcane without burning; more environmentally benign agricultural practices; renewable fuel rather than diesel; not washing sugarcane and implementing water recycling systems during the industrial processing; and improving the system of gases emissions control during the use of ethanol in cars| mainly for NOx. Other studies on the fuel ethanol from sugarcane may analyze in more details the social aspects| the biodiversity| and the land use impact. 9588,2009,2,4,Lightning and anthropogenic NO(x) sources over the United States and the western North Atlantic Ocean: Impact on OLR and radiative effects,The migration of enhancements in NO(2) concentration| outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)| and radiative effects associated with the onset of the North American Monsoon in July 2005 has been investigated using satellite data and the Regional Chemical Transport Model (REAM). The satellite data include the tropospheric NO(2) columns| tropospheric O(3) profiles| and OLR from OMI| TES and NOAA-16 satellite| respectively| for June and July 2005. The simulated OLR captures the spatial distribution of the remotely sensed OLR fields with relatively small biases (<= 5.7%) and high spatial correlations (R >= 0.88). This study reveals that the lightning-generated NO(x) exerts a larger| by up to a factor of three| impact on OLR (up to 0.35 Wm(-2)) and radiative effects (up to 0.55 Wm(-2)) by enhancing O(3) in the upper troposphere than anthropogenic NO(x) that increases O(3) in the lower troposphere| despite the fact that the lightning-generated NO(x) and O(3) are much smaller than those from the anthropogenic emissions. The radiative effect by lightning-derived upper tropospheric O(3) over the convective outflow regions is affected by the changes in lightning frequency. Thus the changes in convection due to global warming may alter the geographical distribution and magnitude of the radiative effect of lightning-derived O(3)| and this paper is a first step in quantifying the current radiative impact. Citation: Choi| Y.| J. Kim| A. Eldering| G. Osterman| Y. L. Yung| Y. Gu| and K. N. Liou (2009)| Lightning and anthropogenic NO(x) sources over the United States and the western North Atlantic Ocean: Impact on OLR and radiative effects| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L17806| doi:10.1029/2009GL039381. 9958,2009,2,4,Linking Habitat Quality with Trophic Performance of Steelhead along Forest Gradients in the South Fork Trinity River Watershed| California,We examined invertebrate prey. fish diet| and energy assimilation in relation to habitat variation for steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (anadromous rainbow trout) and rainbow trout in nine low-order tributaries of the South Fork Trinity River| northern California. These streams spanned a range of environmental conditions| which allowed us to use bioeneractics modeling to determine the relative effects of forest cover| stream temperature| season| and fish age on food consumption and growth efficiency. Evidence of seasonal shifts in reliance on aquatic versus terrestrial food sources was detected among forest cover categories and fish ages| although these categories were not robust indicators of O. mykiss condition and growth efficiency. Consumption estimates were generally less than 20% of maximum consumption| and fish lost weight in some streams during summer low-flow conditions when stream temperatures exceeded 15 degrees C| Current 100-year climate change projections for California threaten to exacerbate negative growth patterns and may undermine the productivity of this steelhead population| which is currently not listed as endangered or threatened. To demonstrate the potential effect of global warming on fish growth. we ran three climate change scenarios in two representative streams. Simulated temperature increases ranging from 1.4 degrees C to 5.5 degrees C during the summer and from 1.5 degrees C to 2.9 degrees C during the winter amplified the weight loss: estimated average growth for age-1 fish was 0.4-4.5 times lower than normal (low to high estimated temperature increase) in the warm stream and 0.05-0.8 times lower in the cool stream. We conclude that feeding rate and temperature during the summer currently limit the growth and productivity of steelhead and rainbow trout in low-order streams in the South Fork Trinity River basin and predict that climate change will have detrimental effects on steelhead growth as well as on macroinvertebrate communities and stream ecosystems in general. 9698,2009,2,4,Linking Thermal Tolerances and Biogeography: Mytilus edulis (L.) at its Southern Limit on the East Coast of the United States,Temperature is a major factor contributing to the latitudinal distribution of species. In the Northern Hemisphere| a species is likely to be living very close to its upper thermal tolerance limits at the southern limit of its biogeographic range. With global warming| this southern limit is expected to shift poleward. Moreover| intertidal ecosystems are expected to be especially strongly affected| mostly due to their large daily and seasonal variations in temperature and exposure. Hence| these are model systems in which to conduct experiments examining the ecological effects of climate change. In this study we determined the upper lethal thermal limits| for both air and water| of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis via laboratory experiments. Tolerances vary seasonally| with a difference between media of 0.7 degrees C in June and 4.8 degrees C in November| as well as a decrease with multiple exposures. Measured lethal limits were then compared to field measurements of environmental temperature and concurrent measurements of mortality rates. Field results indicate that mortality in the intertidal occurs at rates expected from laboratory responses to elevated temperature. Hindcasts| retrospective analyses of historical data| indicate that high rates of mortality have shifted 51 and 42 days earlier in Beaufort| North Carolina| and Oregon Inlet| North Carolina| respectively| between 1956 and 2007. The combined data suggest that the historical southern limit of M. edulis near Cape Hatteras| North Carolina| is indeed the result of intolerance to high temperature| and that this range edge is shifting poleward in a manner indicative of global warming. 974,2009,2,4,Lipid biomarker analysis of cyanobacteria-dominated microbial mats in meltwater ponds on the McMurdo Ice Shelf| Antarctica,The lipid biomarker composition of microbial mat communities from three meltwater ponds from the McMurdo Ice Shelf| Antarctica| was investigated for the first time. Hydrocarbons| ether-linked components| fatty acids (FAs)| wax esters| hopanols and sterols from Fresh| Orange and Salt Ponds were analysed. The dominance of cyanobacteria and the presence of bacterial sulfate reducers were confirmed using signature FAs in all three mats. Wax ester analysis suggested the presence of Chloroflexus spp. The dominance of short chain hydrocarbons| wax esters and FAs indicated that microorganisms are the major source of organic matter in these meltwater ponds. A variety of sterols were present in different relative abundances. The greatest diversity of sterols was in Salt Pond| followed by Fresh Pond| which was attributed to differences in the present eukaryotic diversity. Lipid profiles of the three communities were similar despite the presence of a salinity gradient. Analysis of lipid biomarkers allowed the creation of profiles for these unique Antarctic cryo-ecosystems. This will assist in the comparison of present and past microbial communities and in the monitoring of Antarctic biodiversity in response to global climate change and other environmental perturbations. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9953,2009,2,3,Litter decomposition in grasslands of Central North America (US Great Plains),One of the major concerns about global warming is the potential for an increase in decomposition and soil respiration rates| increasing CO(2) emissions and creating a positive feedback between global warming and soil respiration. This is particularly important in ecosystems with large belowground biomass| such as grasslands where over 90% of the carbon is allocated belowground. A better understanding of the relative influence of climate and litter quality on litter decomposition is needed to predict these changes accurately in grasslands. The Long-Term Intersite Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET) dataset was used to evaluate the influence of climatic variables (temperature| precipitation| actual evapotranspiration| and climate decomposition index)| and litter quality (lignin content| carbon : nitrogen| and lignin : nitrogen ratios) on leaf and root decomposition in the US Great Plains. Wooden dowels were used to provide a homogeneous litter quality to evaluate the relative importance of above and belowground environments on decomposition. Contrary to expectations| temperature did not explain variation in root and leaf decomposition| whereas precipitation partially explained variation in root decomposition. Percent lignin was the best predictor of leaf and root decomposition. It also explained most variation in root decomposition in models which combined litter quality and climatic variables. Despite the lack of relationship between temperature and root decomposition| temperature could indirectly affect root decomposition through decreased litter quality and increased water deficits. These results suggest that carbon flux from root decomposition in grasslands would increase| as result of increasing temperature| only if precipitation is not limiting. However| where precipitation is limiting| increased temperature would decrease root decomposition| thus likely increasing carbon storage in grasslands. Under homogeneous litter quality| belowground decomposition was faster than aboveground and was best predicted by mean annual precipitation| which also suggests that the high moisture in soil accelerates decomposition belowground. 809,2009,5,4,LIVE-BIRTH IN VIPERS (VIPERIDAE) IS A KEY INNOVATION AND ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL COOLING DURING THE CENOZOIC,The identification of adaptations and key innovations has long interested biologists because they confer on organisms the ability to exploit previously unavailable ecological resources and respond to novel selective pressures. Although it can be extremely difficult to test for the effects of a character on the rate of lineage diversification| the convergent evolution of a character in multiple lineages provides an excellent opportunity to test for the effect of that character on lineage diversification. Here| I examine the effect of parity mode on the diversification of vipers| which have independently evolved viviparity in at least 13 lineages. I find strong statistical evidence that viviparous species diversify at a greater rate than oviparous species and correlate major decreases in the diversification rate of oviparous species with periods of global cooling| such as the Oligocene. These results suggest that the evolution of viviparity buffered live-bearing species against the negative effects of global climate change during the Cenozoic| and was a key innovation in the evolution and diversification of live-bearing vipers. 911,2009,2,4,Living on the margin: Ethnoecological insights from Marshall Islanders at Rongelap atoll,Pacific Islanders who live on atolls are among the first people who have begun to be seriously impacted by the effects of global climate change. These are the people whose entire landscape is typically no higher than one meter above sea level. Extreme environmental changes are nothing new to these communities. Over many generations these atoll cultures have survived major| unpredictable and locally devastating changes that are of the same magnitude as those expected from climate changes. An examination of traditional ecological knowledge of Marshall Islanders at Rongelap atoll serves to illustrate some of the coping strategies that have enabled these people to be resilient in the past and in the current environmental crisis. Interviews revealed that these atoll dwellers actively manage the resources that are most likely to be impacted by climate change. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 981,2009,2,4,Local adaptation of timing of reproduction: females are in the driver's seat,Breeding at the right time of the year is crucial for many temperate zone organisms| as any mismatch with their optimal breeding period leads to a reduction in fitness. The roles of the breeding partners in these adaptive decisions have| however| only rarely been studied. In blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) that breed in heterogenous Mediterranean habitats| nearby populations show up to 1-month differences in breeding time. This difference is adaptive as the optimal time for breeding varies by the same amount due to habitat characteristics. But which sex is determining this large difference in timing? We show here that the seasonal development of female reproductive activity (yolk precursor production) closely matches the local optimal breeding time in these two highly contrasted landscapes| while previous studies have demonstrated that male gonadal development does not. In accordance with this| quantitative genetic analyses reveal that timing for breeding is determined by the female only| with no evidence for an additive genetic male effect on laying date. Our results strongly suggest that the adaptive inter-population difference in the laying periods has been driven by females. The central role of females in the determination of breeding period needs to be included when studying how micro-evolutionary processes are affected by global climate change. 9360,2009,2,4,Local adaptation to higher temperatures reduces immigration success of genotypes from a warmer region in the water flea Daphnia,There is growing awareness that microevolutionary dynamics may alter ecological processes. Rising temperatures under global change are expected to open windows for establishment of species and genotypes from warmer regions. Yet| microevolutionary tracking of temperature change by local populations may reduce establishment success of these immigrants. We exposed a UK population of the water flea| Daphnia magna| to two temperature regimes during a 1.5-year experimental evolution trial| and subsequently compared competitive strength of non-warm-adapted and warm-adapted D. magna in competition with French genotypes. Our results indicate that local microevolutionary responses to global warming may reduce establishment success of immigrant genotypes that are preadapted to warmer climate. Simulation modeling shows that microevolution results in a reduced likelihood and speed of displacement of local populations by immigrant genotypes under realistic immigrant/resident ratios. We conclude that local evolutionary dynamics may shift the relative impact of local and regional processes in response to global change. 9521,2009,4,4,LOCAL LINEAR QUANTILE ESTIMATION FOR NONSTATIONARY TIME SERIES,We consider estimation of quantile curves for a general class of nonstationary processes. Consistency and central limit results are obtained for local linear quantile estimates under a mild short-range dependence condition. Our results are applied to environmental data sets. In particular| our results can be used to address the problem of whether climate variability has changed| an important problem raised by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in 2001. 833,2009,3,4,Local solutions to manage the effects of global climate change on a marine ecosystem: a process guide for marine resource managers,The marine environment plays an important role in controlling the amount of CO(2) that remains within the earth's atmosphere| but it has not received as much attention as the terrestrial environment regarding climate-change effects| mitigation programmes| and action plans. Potential physical effects of climate change within the marine environment| including ocean acidification| changes in winds that drive upwelling and ocean circulation patterns| increasing global sea surface temperatures| and sea level rise| can result in dramatic changes within marine and coastal ecosystems. Often| marine resource managers feel overwhelmed by the magnitude of this issue and are therefore uncertain how to begin to take action. It may seem that they do not have the time| funding| or staff to take on a challenge as large as climate change| and fail to act as a result. Using NOAA's Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary as a case study| this paper outlines the need to act now and presents an easy-to-use process guide| providing managers options to incorporate effectively the influences of climate change into management strategies| as well as mitigate these influences through community outreach and a reduction in workplace emissions. 847,2009,2,4,Local Stressors Reduce Coral Resilience to Bleaching,Coral bleaching| during which corals lose their symbiotic dinoflagellates| typically corresponds with periods of intense heat stress| and appears to be increasing in frequency and geographic extent as the climate warms. A fundamental question in coral reef ecology is whether chronic local stress reduces coral resistance and resilience from episodic stress such as bleaching| or alternatively promotes acclimatization| potentially increasing resistance and resilience. Here we show that following a major bleaching event| Montastraea faveolata coral growth rates at sites with higher local anthropogenic stressors remained suppressed for at least 8 years| while coral growth rates at sites with lower stress recovered in 2-3 years. Instead of promoting acclimatization| our data indicate that background stress reduces coral fitness and resilience to episodic events. We also suggest that reducing chronic stress through local coral reef management efforts may increase coral resilience to global climate change. 10136,2009,3,2,Long time management of fossil fuel resources to limit global warming and avoid ice age onsets,There are about 5000 billion tons of fossil fuel carbon in accessible reserves. Combustion of all this carbon within the next few centuries would force high atmospheric CO(2) content and extreme global warming. On the other hand| low atmospheric CO2 content favors the onset of an ice age when changes in the Earth's orbit lead to low summer insolation at high northern latitudes. Here I present Earth System Model projections showing that typical reduction targets for fossil fuel use in the present century could limit ongoing global warming to less than one degree Celcius above present. Furthermore| the projections show that combustion pulses of remaining fossil fuel reserves could then be tailored to raise atmospheric CO2 content high and long enough to parry forcing of ice age onsets by summer insolation minima far into the future. Our present interglacial period could be extended by about 500|000 years in this way. Citation: Shaffer| G. (2009)| Long time management of fossil fuel resources to limit global warming and avoid ice age onsets| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L03704| doi: 10.1029/2008GL036294. 9992,2009,2,4,Long-term bottom water warming in the north Ross Sea,We measured potential temperature| salinity| and dissolved oxygen profiles from the surface to the bottom at two locations in the north Ross Sea (65.2A degrees S| 174.2A degrees E and 67.2A degrees S| 172.7A degrees W) in December 2004. Comparison of our data with previous results from the same region reveals an increase in potential temperature and decreases in salinity and dissolved oxygen concentration in the bottom layer (deeper than 3000 m) over the past four decades. The changes were significantly different from the analytical precisions. Detailed investigation of the temperature| salinity| dissolved oxygen and sigma (3) value distributions and the bottom water flow in the north Ross Sea suggests a long-term change in water mass mixing balance. That is to say| it is speculated that the influence of cool| saline| high-oxygen bottom water (high-salinity Ross Sea Bottom Water) formed in the southwestern Ross Sea has possibly been decreased| while the influences of relatively warmer and fresher bottom water (low-salinity Ross Sea Bottom Water) and the Ad|lie Land Bottom Water coming from the Australia-Antarctic Basin have increased. The possible impact of global warming on ocean circulation needs much more investigation. 9620,2009,2,4,Long-term changes in hydroid (Cnidaria| Hydrozoa) assemblages: effect of Mediterranean warming?,Marine hydroids are markedly seasonal in temperate seas| being extremely sensitive to climatic changes disrupting seasonal patterns. Modifications in the composition| seasonality| bathymetric distribution and reproductive period of hydroid assemblages are useful to evaluate the influence of global warming on the marine ecosystem. The hydroids on the rocky cliff of the Portofino Promontory (Ligurian Sea| Italy) were carefully studied between 1976 and 1983; in particular| in 1980 the study was carried out along a vertical transect. The hydroids were sampled again throughout 2004| with the same techniques and along the same transect. Species diversity decreased slightly in the 2004 survey. Some species present in 1980 had disappeared in 2004| but other species with southern affinity| never recorded from the area| became abundant in 2004. Species that were present in summer in the first period were also present in winter in the second one. Furthermore| shallow summer species widened their bathymetric distribution| reaching deeper levels. These data strongly suggest that the Portofino hydroid assemblage reacted to the water temperature increase found in the Mediterranean Sea. 10225,2009,2,4,LONG-TERM CHANGES IN THE SIZE| STRUCTURE AND LOCATION OF WHISKERED TERN CHLIDONIAS HYBRIDA (L.) NESTS IN DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF A NORTH AFRICAN LAKE,Long-term changes in wetland habitats have been lately reported all over the world. Global warming and| in particular| irrigation and eutrophication of shallow lakes cause changes in vegetation| often in directions differing from the natural ecological succession. As a result| from the viewpoint of waterbirds| their nesting habitats deteriorate| which leads to changes in their breeding biology and distribution. In this paper the nesting of Whiskered Tern Chlidonias hybrida (L.) was studied in changing habitat of Lake Tonga| the El-Kala National Park| NE Algeria in 1996 and 2005-2006. Since the 1960s| there has been a clear trend of extensive development of emergent and floating-leaved vegetation| with up to 80% of the lake surface being currently covered during summer. Nesting colonies of Whiskered Terns are mostly connected with beds of the white water-lily (Nymphaea alba L.). The average distance of breeding colonies from the shore line increased from 176 m in 1966 to 786 m in 2005 and 933 m in 2006. Over the study period| average nest size got twice smaller. Nest diameter was on the average 470 mm in 1996 and 236 mm in 2005-2006. The nests also changed shape and composition. The size and shape of nests were correlated with measures of their composition. Variables characterizing size| shape and composition of nests indeed differed in response to ecological variation of habitat between and within years. Our results suggest that the main function of Whiskered Tern nests is providing a firm support for eggs| incubating adults and young nestlings| which would correspond to the nest support hypothesis of Collias and Collias (1984). Nest size was influenced by ecological conditions in two ways: directly| by changing the availability of construction materials| and indirectly| by changing the distribution of colonies and| thus| physical conditions for nests. We also suggest that some components of the changes in nest size| shape and composition may be linked with the social and sexual signaling system of Whiskered Terns.
813,2009,2,4,Long-term changes in topsoil nematode populations in grazed pasture under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide,Increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentrations are expected to affect ecosystems processes| and while a New Zealand study reported a response in soil biological activity after 4 years of CO(2) enrichment| apparently reflecting increased populations of Longidorus elongatus| similar findings have not been reported from other sites. Soil microfauna in 0-10 cm soil under a sheep-grazed pasture on a sand was assessed quarterly in FACE rings that were either at ambient CO(2) or had been exposed to 475 mu l l(-1) CO(2) for some 9 years. Although the area had been subject to a severe drought and microfaunal populations were lower than previously found| the effects of elevated CO(2) on microfaunal populations were broadly similar to those at 4 years. Average populations of the root-feeding L. elongatus increased from 67|000 to 233|000 m(-2) (3.48x) compared with a 4.26x increase after 4 years; microbial-feeding nematodes increased slightly| while predacious nematodes showed a 2.0x increase. A pot experiment showed an additive effect of elevated CO(2) and L. elongatus abundance in reducing specific root length. That similar effects have been found 4 and 9 years after CO(2) enrichment commenced suggests they are real| and emphasises the difference to other sites around the world where much lower responses to elevated CO(2) have been found. This| in part| reflects the unique combination of soil| plant and soil biological conditions at each site and confirms the strong effect of soil type and vegetation on soil biological processes. Just as the effects of global climate change on a given region are idiosyncratic| so it seems are the effects of elevated CO(2) on soil and ecosystem processes. In part| this reflects our limited understanding of below-ground processes. 9803,2009,2,2,Long-term climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in eastern China,Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce significant climate change over the next century and beyond| but the impacts on society remain highly uncertain. This work examines potential climate change impacts on the productivity of five major crops in eastern China: canola| corn| potato| rice| and winter wheat. In addition to determining domain-wide trends| the objective is to identify vulnerable and emergent regions under future climate conditions| defined as having a greater than 10% decrease and increase in productivity| respectively. Data from the ICTP RegCM3 regional climate model for baseline (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) periods under A2 scenario conditions are used as input for the EPIC agro-ecosystem simulation model in the domain [30 degrees N| 108 degrees E] to [42 degrees N| 123 degrees E]. Simulations are performed with and without the enhanced CO(2)-fertilization effect. Results indicate that aggregate potential productivity (i.e. if the crop is grown everywhere) increases 6.5% for rice| 8.3% for canola| 18.6% for corn| 22.9% for potato| and 24.9% for winter wheat| although with significant spatial variability for each crop. However| without the enhanced CO(2)-fertilization effect| potential productivity declines in all cases ranging from 2.5 to 12%. Interannual yield variability remains constant or declines in all cases except rice. Climate variables are found to be more significant drivers of simulated yield changes than changes in soil properties| except in the case of potato production in the northwest where the effects of wind erosion are more significant. Overall| in the future period corn and winter wheat benefit significantly in the North China Plain| rice remains dominant in the southeast and emerges in the northeast| potato and corn yields become viable in the northwest| and potato yields suffer in the southwest with no other crop emerging as a clear beneficiary from among those simulated in this study. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9749,2009,2,4,Long-term climatic change and sustainable ground water resources management,Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs)| prominently carbon dioxide (CO(2))| methane (CH(4))| nitrous oxide (N(2)O)| and halocarbons| have risen from fossil-fuel combustion| deforestation| agriculture| and industry. There is currently heated national and international debate about the consequences of such increasing concentrations of GHGs on the Earth's climate| and| ultimately| on life and society in the world as we know it. This paper reviews (i) long-term patterns of climate change| secular climatic variability| and predicted population growth and their relation to water resources management| and| specifically| to ground water resources management| (ii) means available for mitigating and adapting to trends of climatic change and climatic variability and their impacts on ground water resources. Long-term (that is| over hundreds of millions of years)| global-scale| climatic fluctuations are compared with more recent (in the Holocene) patterns of the global and regional climates to shed light on the meaning of rising mean surface temperature over the last century or so| especially in regions whose historical hydroclimatic records exhibit large inter-annual variability. One example of regional ground water resources response to global warming and population growth is presented. 9504,2009,2,4,Long-term declining trend of zooplankton biomass in the Tropical Atlantic,We report evidences that the zooplankton biomass in the tropical Atlantic has declined with an almost 10-fold drop from the 1950s to 2000. The results of the multiple regression analysis showed that the decline in zooplankton biomass was positively related to the NAO-index and to phosphate concentration. We also found that the depth of the thermocline has decreased over the period of our investigation. Thus| the decline we report in zooplankton biomass may be related to the combined effect of two phenomena driven by global temperature increase: (1) the widening of the distributional range of tropical species due to the expansion of the 'tropical belt' and (2) a decrease in primary production resulting from the thinning of the thermocline. The decline of zooplankton biomass we report suggests that global warming of the ocean may be altering tropical food webs| and through them| it may also indirectly impact tropical oceans biogeochemical cycles. 749,2009,5,4,Long-term drivers of change in Polylepis woodland distribution in the central Andes,Question Is the modern patchy distribution of highly biodiverse Polylepis woodlands a consequence of human activity or natural fluctuations in environmental conditions? What are the consequences of changing climate for the tree genus Polylepis? Location High central tropical Andes. Methods We characterized the ecological baseline conditions for Polylepis woodlands over the last ca. 370 000 years through: (i) examination of fossil pollen records (Salar de Uyuni and Lake Titicaca) and (ii) a review of autecological information concerning Polylepis. Results Fossil pollen data revealed fluctuations in the abundance (ca. 0-34%) of Polylepis pollen before the arrival of humans in South America (> 12 000 years ago)| indicating that Polylepis did not form permanent continuous woodland before the arrival of humans and that climatic factors can drive rapid vegetation change. Autecological assessment of Polylepis revealed: (i) negative moisture balance| (ii) fire| (iii) waterlogging| and (iv) cloud cover to be critical in determining the niche space available for Polylepis. Conclusions Polylepis niche space in the central Andes was at a maximum during warm and wet conditions in the past| but might be at a minimum during the warmer and drier than modern conditions predicted for later this century. The sensitivity to past global climate change emphasizes the need for conservation planners to consider model predictions of a warmer central Andes in the coming decades when developing planting schemes. Natural fluctuations in woodland abundance suggest the most effective way for conservation efforts to "mimic" the natural baseline would be to develop a reproductively connected patchwork of communities. 9454,2009,2,3,Long-term ecosystem monitoring and assessment of the Detroit River and Western Lake Erie,Over 35 years of US and Canadian pollution prevention and control efforts have led to substantial improvements in environmental quality of the Detroit River and western Lake Erie. However| the available information also shows that much remains to be done. Improvements in environmental quality have resulted in significant ecological recovery| including increasing populations of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus)| peregrine falcons (Falco columbarius)| lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens)| lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis)| walleye (Sander vitreus)| and burrowing mayflies (Hexagenia spp.). Although this recovery is remarkable| many challenges remain| including population growth| transportation expansion| and land use changes; nonpoint source pollution; toxic substances contamination; habitat loss and degradation; introduction of exotic species; and greenhouse gases and global warming. Research/monitoring must be sustained for effective management. Priority research and monitoring needs include: demonstrating and quantifying cause-effect relationships; establishing quantitative endpoints and desired future states; determining cumulative impacts and how indicators relate; improving modeling and prediction; prioritizing geographic areas for protection and restoration; and fostering long-term monitoring for adaptive management. Key management agencies| universities| and environmental and conservation organizations should pool resources and undertake comprehensive and integrative assessments of the health of the Detroit River and western Lake Erie at least every 5 years to practice adaptive management for long-term sustainability. 848,2009,3,4,Long-term forest management and timely transfer of carbon into wood products help reduce atmospheric carbon,In their efforts I to deal with global climate change| scientists and governments have given much attention to the carbon 'emissions associated with fossil fuels and to strategies for reducing their use. While it is very important to burn less fossil fuel and to employ alternative energy sources| other carbon-reduction options must also be considered. Given that forests comprise a large portion of the global landbase and that they play a very significant role in the global carbon cycle| it is logical to examine how forest management practices could effect reductions in carbon emissions. Many papers that discuss forest carbon sinks or sources refer only to the short term (<20 years). This paper focuses on the sustainable carbon storage contributions of a forest over the long term. This paper explains that long-term carbon storage and reduced carbon fluctuation can be achieved by a combination of improved forest management and efficient transfer of carbon into wood products. Here we show how three different forest management scenarios affect the overall carbon storage capacity of forest and wood products combined over the long term. We used a timber supply model and scenario analysis to predict forest carbon and other resource conditions over time in the Prince George Forest District| a 3.4-million-ha landbase in northern British Columbia. We found that the high-harvest scenario stores 3% more carbon than the low-harvest scenario and 27% (120 million tonnes) more carbon than the no-harvest scenario even though only 1.2-million ha is in timber harvesting landbase. Our results tell us that forest management practices that maintain and increase forest area| reduce natural disturbances in the forest| improve forest conditions| and ensure the appropriate and timely transfer of carbon into wood products lead to increasing overall carbon storage| thereby reducing carbon in the atmosphere. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10165,2009,2,4,Long-term modification of Arctic lake ecosystems: Reference condition| degradation under toxic impacts and recovery (case study Imandra Lakes| Russia),In this study| published data on Lake Imandra| north-west Russia| have been synthesised to investigate trends in lake contamination and recovery due to changing inputs of heavy metals and nutrients over time. Records of water chemistry| phytoplankton| zooplankton and fish communities have been used to determine the status of aquatic ecosystem health in three distinct phases of Lake Imandra's recent history. Firstly| background (reference) conditions within the lake have been established to determine lake conditions prior to anthropogenic influences. Secondly| a period of ecosystem degradation due to anthropogenic inputs of toxic metals and nutrients has been described. Finally| evidence of take recovery due to recent decreases of toxic metals and nutrients has been explored. Pollution of Lake Imandra began in the 1930s| reaching a peak in the 1980s. Increases in heavy metal and nutrient inputs transformed the typical Arctic ecosystem. During the contamination phase| there was a decrease in Arctic species and in biodiversity. During the last 10 years| pollution has decreased and the lake has been recolonised by Arctic water species. Ecosystem recovery is indicated by a change of predominant species| an increase in the individual mass of organisms and an increase in the biodiversity index of plankton communities. In accordance with Odum's ecosystem succession theory| this paper demonstrates that the ecosystem has transformed to a more stable condition with new defining parameters. This illustrates that the recovery of Arctic ecosystems towards pre-industrial reference conditions after a reduction in anthropogenic stresses occur| although a complete return to background conditions may not be achievable. Having determined the status of current ecosystem health within Lake Imandra| the effect of global warming on the recovery process is discussed. Climate warming in Arctic regions is likely to move the ecosystem towards a predominance of eurybiontic species in the community structure. These organisms have the ability to tolerate a wider range of environmental conditions than typical Arctic inhabitants and will gain advantages in development. This indicates that the full recovery of Arctic ecosystems in a warming climate may not be possible. (C) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 10175,2009,2,2,Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels,Ongoing global warming could persist far into the future| because natural processes require decades to hundreds of thousands of years to remove carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel burning from the atmosphere(1-3). Future warming may have large global impacts including ocean oxygen depletion and associated adverse effects on marine life| such as more frequent mortality events(4-8)| but long| comprehensive simulations of these impacts are currently not available. Here we project global change over the next 100|000 years using a low-resolution Earth system model(9)| and find severe| long-term ocean oxygen depletion| as well as a great expansion of ocean oxygen-minimum zones for scenarios with high emissions or high climate sensitivity. We find that climate feedbacks within the Earth system amplify the strength and duration of global warming| ocean heating and oxygen depletion. Decreased oxygen solubility from surface-layer warming accounts for most of the enhanced oxygen depletion in the upper 500 m of the ocean. Possible weakening of ocean overturning and convection lead to further oxygen depletion| also in the deep ocean. We conclude that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel use over the next few generations are needed if extensive ocean oxygen depletion for thousands of years is to be avoided. 9376,2009,4,5,Long-term solar activity as a controlling factor for global warming in the 20th century,Such high-resolution indirect data on solar activity as the (14)C and (10)Be cosmogenic isotopes have been considered. The long-term solar activity cyclicity during the last millennium with periods of approximately 90 and 210 years| which can be related to substantial climatic warming and cooling events in this millennium| has been established based on an analysis of these data. It has been indicated that long-term recent climate warming can result from the effect of the similar to 90- and similar to 210-year solar cycles on the climatic system| which is characterized by the nonlinear dynamics.
844,2009,2,4,Long-term temporal changes of plant phenology in the Western Mediterranean,Plants are altering their life cycles in response to current climatic change around the globe. More than 200 000 records for six phenological events (leaf unfolding| flowering| fruit ripening| fruit harvesting| leaf falling and growing season) of 29 perennial species for the period 1943-2003 recorded throughout Spain provide the longest temporal and the broadest spatial assessment of plant phenology changes in the Mediterranean region. The overwhelming majority of the 118 studied phenophases shifted their dates in recent decades. Such changes differed among phenological events. Leaf unfolding| flowering and fruiting are markedly advancing (-0.48| -0.59 and -0.32 days yr(-1)| respectively)| but only since the mid-1970s. Anemophilous have advanced more days their flowering than entomophilous. However| some species have delayed and others have advanced their leaf falling dates and as a result only a weak shift was observed in this event for the whole of the studied species (+0.12 days yr(-1)). The growing season lengthened by 18 days| which implies an increase of 8% in the life of annual leaves. Such an increase was achieved mainly through the advance of leaf unfolding dates in the spring| one of the most productive times of year for vegetation in the Mediterranean. Shifts in the plant calendar were accompanied as well by long-term changes in the range of onset dates in 39% of studied phenophases. Leaf unfolding| flowering and growing season tended to reduce spatial variability| reflecting a faster and more synchronized onset (or duration) of phenophases across the study area. Changes in spatial variability may aggravate calendar mismatching with other trophic levels resulting from changes in dates. Because temporal responses differed markedly among species| calendar guilds of plants have changed| which suggests alterations of interspecific relationships in plant communities from Mediterranean ecosystems. 878,2009,2,4,Long-Term Variability in Bioassessments: A Twenty-Year Study from Two Northern California Streams,Long-term variability of bioassessments has not been well evaluated. We analyzed a 20-year data set (1984-2003) from four sites in two northern California streams to examine the variability of bioassessment indices (two multivariate RIVPACS-type O/E scores and one multimetric index of biotic integrity| IBI)| as well as eight metrics. All sites were sampled in spring; one site was also sampled in summer. Variability among years was high for most metrics (coefficients of variation| CVs ranging from 16% to 246% in spring) but lower for indices (CVs of 22-26% for the IBI and 21-32% for O/E scores in spring)| which resulted in inconsistent assessments of biological condition. Variance components analysis showed that the time component explained variability in all metrics and indices| ranging from 5% to 35% of total variance explained. The site component was large (i.e.| > 40%) for some metrics (e.g.| EPT richness)| but nearly absent from others (e.g.| Diptera richness). Seasonal analysis at one site showed that variability among seasons was small for some metrics or indices (e.g.| Coleoptera richness)| but large for others (e.g.| EPT richness| O/E scores). Climatic variables did not show consistent trends across all metrics| although several were related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation Index at some sites. Bioassessments should incorporate temporal variability during index calibration or include climatic variability as predictive variables to improve accuracy and precision. In addition| these approaches may help managers anticipate alterations in reference streams caused by global climate change and high climatic variability. 10315,2009,2,4,Low impact of climate change on subalpine grasslands in the Swiss Northern Alps,While phenological shifts and migration of isolated species under climate change have already been observed on alpine summits| very few studies have focused on community composition changes in subalpine grasslands. Here we use permanent plots monitored since 1954 and precisely located phytosociological censuses from 1970 to study compositional changes of subalpine grasslands in two distinct regions of the Swiss Northern Alps. In both areas| warming trends during the monitoring period were associated with changes in land management (abandonment of goat and sheep pasturing or grazing replaced by mowing). Old and recent inventories were compared with correspondence analyses (CA). Ecological indicator values| community-affinities and biological traits of the species were used to infer the factors responsible for triggering the observed changes. In both regions| subalpine grasslands were stable with smaller changes than have previously been observed in alpine environments. Only a few species appeared or disappeared and changes were generally limited to increasing or decreasing frequency and cover of certain taxa. At one site| grazing abandonment favored fallow species. Some of these species were located at their upper altitudinal distribution limits and may have spread because of rising temperatures. In both areas| declining species were predominantly alpine and low-growing species; their decline was probably due to increased competition (e.g.| shadow) with more vigorous subalpine taxa no longer limited by grazing. We conclude that vegetation communities can respond rapidly to warming as long as colonization is facilitated by available space or structural change. In the subalpine grasslands studies| changes were mainly driven by land management. These communities have a dense vegetation cover and newly arriving herbaceous species preferring warmer conditions may take some time to establish themselves. However| climate disturbances| such as exceptional drought| may accelerate community changes by opening gaps for new species. 10097,2009,2,4,Macroclimate associated with urbanization increases the rate of secondary succession from fallow soil,To examine the impact of projected climate changes on secondary succession| we exposed the same fallow soil with a common seed bank to an in situ gradient of urban to rural macroenvironments that differed in temperature and CO(2) concentration ([CO(2)]). This gradient was established at three locations: Baltimore city center (urban)| a city park on the outskirts of Baltimore (suburban)| and an organic farm 87 km from the Baltimore city center site (rural). Over a five-year period| the urban site averaged 2.1A degrees C warmer and had a [CO(2)] that was similar to 20% higher than at the rural location| indicating that this gradient was a reasonable surrogate for projected changes in those variables for this century. Previous work had demonstrated that other abiotic variables measured across the transect| including tropospheric ozone and nitrogen deposition| did not differ consistently. The first year of exposure resulted in (two- to threefold) greater aboveground biomass in the urban relative to the rural site| but with uniform species composition across sites. Simple regression of abiotic variables indicated that temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) were the best predictors of plant biomass among locations. Stepwise multiple regressions were also performed to analyze the effect of more than one macroenvironmental variable on total plant biomass. The combination of daily CO(2) concentration and nighttime temperature explained 87% (P < 0.01) of the variability in total biomass between sites. After five years| the species demography of the plant communities had changed significantly| with a greater ratio of perennials to annuals for the urban relative to the rural location. Greater first-year biomass and litter accumulation at the urban site may have suppressed the subsequent seed germination of annual species| accelerating changes in species composition. If urban macroenvironments reflect future global change conditions| these data suggest a faster rate of secondary succession in a warmer| higher [CO(2)] world. 759,2009,5,4,Magnetostratigraphy of the Dahonggou section| northern Qaidam Basin and its bearing on Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the Qilian Shan and Altyn Tagh Fault,The timing of uplift of the Tibet Plateau has a central role in the development of tectonic models for the Tibet Plateau and Cenozoic global climate change. A detailed magnetostratigraphic study of the Dahonggou section| northern Qaidam Basin| reveal that the section spans from similar to 34 to similar to 8.5 Ma and the ages of the Shang Ganchaigou| Xia Youshashan and Shang Youshashan formations are from > 34 to 22-20 Ma| 22-20 to 13 Ma and 13 to <8.5 Ma| respectively. Variations in lithofacies| sedimentation rate and magnetic susceptibility (K) suggest that the southern Qilian Shan was tectonically inactive and didn't respond to the rapid slip on the Altyn Tagh Fault at 30 Ma. In contrast| the similar sedimentary records in the Dahonggou section| the Xishuigou section along the Altyn Tagh Fault| and even more localities along much of the Qilian range front imply that the Qilian Shan and the Altyn Tagh Fault were synchronously tectonically active at about 12 Ma. The lower K between similar to 12 Ma and similar to 8.5 Ma in the sediments of the Dahonggou section is interpreted to be due to long-distanced oxidation and sorting| which cause not only that magnetite was oxidated to hematite| but also that magnetic minerals are enriched in fine-grained sediments and coarse-grained sediments bear few magnetic mineral. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 789,2009,3,3,Making local futures tangible-Synthesizing| downscaling| and visualizing climate change scenarios for participatory capacity building,Local in its causes and global in its impacts| climate change still poses an unresolved challenge for scientists| politicians| entrepreneurs| and citizens. Climate change research is largely global in focus| aims at enhanced understanding| and is driven by experts| all of which seem to be insufficient to anchor climate change action in regional and local contexts. We present results from a participatory scenario study conducted in collaboration with the municipality of Delta in SW British Columbia| Canada. This study applies a participatory capacity building approach for climate change action at the local level where the sources of emissions and the mechanisms of adaptation reside and where climate change is meaningful to decision-makers and stakeholders alike. The multi-scale scenario approach consists of synthesizing global climate change scenarios| downscaling them to the regional and local level| and finally visualizing alternative climate scenarios out to 2100 in 3D views of familiar| local places. We critically discuss the scenarios produced and the strengths and weaknesses of the approach applied. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved 729,2009,2,4,MANAGEMENT FOR LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF MARINE HABITATS IN SINGAPORE: A SCIENCE-BASED APPROACH,Long-term sustainability of biodiversity and natural habitats is a common global objective. In the complex and constrained physical| socio-economic and political environments present in Singapore| the need for a science-based approach to management is more acute. This management approach is illustrated in the Singapore experience in terms of maintaining up-to-date biodiversity baselines| minimizing impacts from coastal development works| enhancing survey and monitoring methodologies and maximizing survival potential of existing biodiversity. Many aspects of this approach could be adapted for other tropical coastal cities; however| in the face of increasing physical and socio-economic pressures| the science-based approach needs to be closely integrated with other management approaches to ensure coastal habitat sustainability in the long term| especially with challenges from increasing urbanization and global climate change. 1007,2009,3,4,Managing air quality in a rapidly developing nation: China,As the world gets ready to begin the second decade of the twenty-first century| global climate change has been recognized as a real threat to civilization as we know it. The rapid and successful economic growth of developing nations| Particularly China and India| is contributing to climate change. The route to initial economic Success in China followed that of the developed nations through the development of industries. Unfortunately| China's environmental protection efforts have not been the same as in developed countries because China is vastly different Culturally| socially| economically and| especially| politically from developed nations. When China started to deal with environmental concerns in the late 1970s| it took advantage of the experiences of other countries in establishing environmental standards and regulations| but it did not have a model to follow when it came to implementing these standards and regulations because of the abovementioned differences. Economically| China is transitioning from an agricultural base into an industrial base: however| even now| 60% of the population remains farmers. China has been and still is heavily dependent upon coal for energy| resulting in serious atmospheric particulate pollution. While growing efforts have been expended on the environment| at this juncture of its economic development| China would be well served to revisit the traditional "develop first and clean up later" approach and to find a balance between development and protecting the environment. Against this backdrop| a reflective look of the effort to manage air quality from 1949-2008 (with an emphasis on the past 30 years) in China is presented in this paper. The environmental component of the 2008 Olympic Games is examined as a special example to illustrate the Current measures being used to improve air quality in China. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All Fights reserved. 10309,2009,3,4,Material flows in the life cycle of leather,This paper presents a study on the resource and environmental profile of leather for communicating to the consumers about the environmental burdens of leather products. The results indicate that significant environmental impacts were caused during the tanning and finishing of leather as well as the electricity production and transportation required in the life cycle. The use of fossil fuels in the production of energy has greater impact with increased emissions leading to about 15190 kg CO(2) equivalent of global warming and about 73 kg SO(2) equivalent of acidification while producing 100 m(2) of leather for shoe uppers. Further resource use of 174 kg of coal| 6.5 kg of fuel oil| 17.4 m(3) of water and 348 kg of chemicals of which about 204 kg are hazardous are consumed| and wastewater of about 17 m(3)| BOD of 55 kg| COD of about 146 kg| TDS of 732 kg and solid waste of about 1445 kg are generated during the life cycle for the production of 100 m(2) of leather. The total solid waste generated is 1317 kg| out of which about 80% is biodegradable contributed by slaughtering| tanning and finishing stage| 14% is non-biodegradable contributed by tanning| finishing and electricity production stages and 6% is hazardous mainly from tanning and finishing stage of leather. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9808,2009,3,3,Mathematical analysis of change in forest carbon use efficiency with stand development: A case study on Abies veitchii Lindl.,Changes in carbon use efficiency (CUE)| which is defined as the ratio of net primary production (NPP) to gross primary production (GPP)| were analyzed for Abies veitchii Lindl. forests with respect to stand development by developing a simple mathematical model incorporating data on physiological variables and leaf mass ratio. A decrease in CUE with stand development was successfully expressed as a function of stand biomass (y) based on the following three assumptions: (1) a power-law relationship between mean respiration and mean individual tree mass| (2) a power-functional relationship between mean gross primary production and mean individual tree mass| and (3) self-thinning relationship between stand biomass and density. Based on this model| a parameter of CUE-y relationship was defined| and it was clarified that CUE decrease with stand development is caused not by the ratio of specific respiration rate to specific gross photosynthetic rate| but by leaf mass ratio. Since CUE is high in young forests| helpful information on selecting woody species when planting seedlings was provided from the viewpoints of reducing CO(2) in the atmosphere and global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved 762,2009,2,4,Mathematical modelling for conservation and management of gorgonians corals: youngs and olds| could they coexist?,Gorgonian corals are long-lived| slow-growing marine species dominating Mediterranean rocky bottoms. Endowed with complex morphologies they give a structure to the whole community| moreover| being efficient suspension feeders| they play a key role in plankton-benthos energy flow and CO(2) storage. Thus| the structure and the development of benthic| hard bottom communities are linked to gorgonian survival. The red coral Corallium rubrum (L 1758) is a precious gorgonian endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. Harvested and traded world-wide since ancient times red coral is a clear example of overexploited marine resource. This species is structured into self-seeding| genetically differentiated populations| some of which| living in the shallower part of the species bathymetric distribution| was recently affected by anomalous mortality events linked to global climate change. The co-occurrence of overharvesting and mass mortality could dramatically affect such populations. Demographic population models| widely applied by conservation biologists to check population viability and to project population trends over time are fundamental to foster survival of such populations matching harvesting to population growth rates. Therefore we set out a dynamic model of a genetically differentiated red coral population living in shallow waters. This population is characterised by small/young| crowded colonies and high recruitment rate. On the basis of the size-age structure determined for this population| a static life-history table| in which survival and reproduction coefficients of the different size-age classes were reported| has been set out. Demographic data were included in a non-linear| discrete| age-structured dynamic model| based on a Leslie-Lewis transition matrix. Our field data indicate that the recruits-to-larvae ratio is actually density-dependent. Such dependence| positive for low and negative for high density values| was included into the model and the effect of colonies of different size-age classes on recruits-to-larvae ratio was considered to be proportional to the number of polyps they have. We applied such model to simulate the trends of the studied population under different increases of survival and life-span. As some populations of gorgonians actually show the dominance of sparse| big/old colonies and low recruitment rate| while others are characterised by crowded| small/young colonies and high recruitment rate| we simulated the shift from the former to the latter structure increasing survival and life-span. Our results suggest that a dramatic mortality increase of bigger-older colonies (due| in the case of red coral to overfishing) could have determined the population structure we found. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10151,2009,2,4,Mechanical-Statistical Modeling in Ecology: From Outbreak Detections to Pest Dynamics,Knowledge about large-scale and long-term dynamics of (natural) populations is required to assess the efficiency of control strategies| the potential for long-term persistence| and the adaptability to global changes such as habitat fragmentation and global warming. For most natural populations| such as pest populations| large-scale and long-term surveys cannot be carried out at a high resolution. For instance| for population dynamics characterized by irregular abundance explosions| i.e.| outbreaks| it is common to report detected outbreaks rather than measuring the population density at every location and time event. Here| we propose a mechanical-statistical model for analyzing such outbreak occurrence data and making inference about population dynamics. This spatio-temporal model contains the main mechanisms of the dynamics and describes the observation process. This construction enables us to account for the discrepancy between the phenomenon scale and the sampling scale. We propose the Bayesian method to estimate model parameters| pest densities and hidden factors| i.e.| variables involved in the dynamics but not observed. The model was specified and used to learn about the dynamics of the European pine sawfly (Neodiprion sertifer Geoffr.| an insect causing major defoliation of pines in northern Europe) based on Finnish sawfly data covering the years 1961-1990. In this application| a dynamical Beverton-Holt model including a hidden regime variable was incorporated into the model to deal with large variations in the population densities. Our results gave support to the idea that pine sawfly dynamics should be studied as metapopulations with alternative equilibria. The results confirmed the importance of extreme minimum winter temperatures for the occurrence of European pine sawfly outbreaks. The strong positive connection between the ratio of lake area over total area and outbreaks was quantified for the first time. 9566,2009,3,3,Medium-term evolution of soil properties in a constructed surface flow wetland with fluctuating hydroperiod in North Eastern Italy,Knowledge of the evolution of soil properties in a constructed wetland is important for a correct design and performance assessment of the system over time. We evaluated the medium-term evolution of some chemical (pH| electrical conductivity [EC]| organic carbon [OC]| total nitrogen [TN]| and total phosphorus [TP]) and physical (bulk density and penetration resistance) properties of the top soil layer in a constructed surface flow wetland (SFW) excavated in 1996 in North-Eastern Italy. The soil carbon sequestration performance of the SFW was assessed as well. Soil sampling was conducted in the years 1996| 2003| and 2007. During the period studied| the SFW was subjected to a fluctuating hydroperiod| receiving 56|000 mm of water| 7 times higher than the rainfall. With respect to the initial homogeneous conditions| two layers differentiated in the top profile| characterized mostly by the different OC content and physical characteristics. OC and TN content increased only in the top layer (0-5 cm)| from 7 to 17 g kg(-1) and from 0.7 to 0.9 g kg(-1) respectively| leading to an average C/N ratio of 19. The other chemical properties showed no significant changes over time. In 2003| the bulk density in the 0-5 cm layer (1.3 cm(3) g(-1)) was significantly lower than in 1996 (1.49 cm(3) g(-1))| while at depths greater than 20 cm this increased to more than 1.6 cm(3) g(-1)| evidencing the fori-nation of a compact layer. Penetration resistance increased along the profile as well. With reference to other land uses (buffer strips| manured cropland)| SFW proved to be a valuable sink for CO(2)| accumulating 1.4 t C ha(-1) yr(-1) which suggests a positive role in global warming attenuation. 1040,2009,3,4,Meeting the Challenge of Institutional Fragmentation in Addressing Climate Change in Transportation Planning and Investment,Global climate change (GCC) has emerged in recent years as the highest-profile environmental issue of the early 21st century. Transportation institutions at all levels of government face significant challenges in effectively addressing GCC in terms of both the adaptation of the transportation system to the impacts of GCC and the mitigation of transportation's contribution to GCC. These challenges stem in large part from the fragmentation of decision making within and across governmental levels| the consequent mismatch of political boundaries| and the nature of options for effectively addressing GCC. This paper discusses these challenges and proposes a conceptual framework for rethinking how transportation institutions may more effectively address the connection between transportation and GCC. It includes an assessment of the current state and metropolitan planning activities related to GCC and the perspectives of various planning practitioners from across the United States. It also articulates several of the key institutional elements necessary for a GCC-responsive transportation agency| including entrepreneurial leadership| an appropriate geographic jurisdiction| a multidisciplinary organizational structure| appropriately aligned funding and planning structures| and adequate planning and implementation authority. Finally| it also offers several suggestions on potential research needs associated with climate change and transportation institutional change. 10287,2009,4,3,Melting of major Glaciers in the western Himalayas: evidence of climatic changes from long term MSU derived tropospheric temperature trend (1979-2008),Global warming or the increase of the surface and atmospheric temperatures of the Earth| is increasingly discernible in the polar| sub-polar and major land glacial areas. The Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau Glaciers| which are the largest glaciers outside of the Polar Regions| are showing a large-scale decrease of snow cover and an extensive glacial retreat. These glaciers such as Siachen and Gangotri are a major water resource for Asia as they feed major rivers such as the Indus| Ganga and Brahmaputra. Due to scarcity of ground measuring stations| the long-term observations of atmospheric temperatures acquired from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) since 1979-2008 is highly useful. The lower and middle tropospheric temperature trend based on 30 years of MSU data shows warming of the Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitude regions. The mean month-to-month warming (up to 0.048 +/- 0.026 degrees K/year or 1.44 degrees K over 30 years) of the mid troposphere (near surface over the high altitude Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau) is prominent and statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. Though the mean annual warming trend over the Himalayas (0.016 +/- 0.005 degrees K/year)| and Tibetan Plateau (0.008 +/- 0.006 degrees K/year) is positive| the month to month warming trend is higher (by 2-3 times| positive and significant) only over a period of six months (December to May). The factors responsible for the reversal of this trend from June to November are discussed here. The inequality in the magnitude of the warming trends of the troposphere between the western and eastern Himalayas and the IG (Indo-Gangetic) plains is attributed to the differences in increased aerosol loading (due to dust storms) over these regions. The monthly mean lower-tropospheric MSU-derived temperature trend over the IG plains (dust sink region; up to 0.032 +/- 0.027 degrees K/year) and dust source regions (Sahara desert| Middle East| Arabian region| Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan and Thar Desert regions; up to 0.068 +/- 0.033 degrees K/year) also shows a similar pattern of month-to-month oscillation and six months of enhanced and a statistically significant warming trend. The enhanced warming trend during the winter and pre-monsoon months (December-May) may accelerate glacial melt. The unequal distribution of the warming trend over the year is discussed in this study and is partially attributed to a number of controlling factors such as sunlight duration| CO(2) trends over the region (2003-2008)| water vapor and aerosol distribution. 10302,2009,3,4,Metabolic engineering of cyanobacteria for ethanol production,Development of renewable energy is rapidly being embraced by our society and industry to achieve the nation's economic growth goals and to help address the world's energy and global warming crises. Currently most of the bioethanol production is from the fermentation of agricultural crops and residues. There is much debate concerning the cost effectiveness and energy efficiency of such biomass based ethanol production processes. Here| we report the creation of a Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 strain that can photoautotrophically convert CO(2) to bioethanol. Transformation was performed using a double homologous recombination system to integrate the pyruvate decarboxylase (pdc) and alcohol dehydrogenase II (adh) genes from obligately ethanol producing Zymomonas mobilis into the Synechocystis PCC 6803 chromosome under the control of the strong| light driven psbAII promoter. PCR based assay and ethanol production assay were used to screen for stable transformants. A computerized photobioreactor system was established for the experimental design and data acquisition for the analysis of the cyanobacterial cell cultures and ethanol production. The system described here shows an average yield of 5.2 mmol OD(730) unit(-1) litre(-1) day(-1) with no required antibiotic/selective agent. 9474,2009,2,4,Metagenome of a Versatile Chemolithoautotroph from Expanding Oceanic Dead Zones,Oxygen minimum zones| also known as oceanic "dead zones|" are widespread oceanographic features currently expanding because of global warming. Although inhospitable to metazoan life| they support a cryptic microbiota whose metabolic activities affect nutrient and trace gas cycling within the global ocean. Here| we report metagenomic analyses of a ubiquitous and abundant but uncultivated oxygen minimum zone microbe (SUP05) related to chemoautotrophic gill symbionts of deep-sea clams and mussels. The SUP05 metagenome harbors a versatile repertoire of genes mediating autotrophic carbon assimilation| sulfur oxidation| and nitrate respiration responsive to a wide range of water-column redox states. Our analysis provides a genomic foundation for understanding the ecological and biogeochemical role of pelagic SUP05 in oxygen-deficient oceanic waters and its potential sensitivity to environmental changes. 10327,2009,3,4,Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from an integrated rainfed rice-fish farming system of Eastern India,Integration of fish stocking with rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation promises an ecologically sound and environmentally viable management of flooded ecosystem. Rice agriculture contributes to the emission of greenhouse gases CH(4) and N(2)O| but little is known on the effect of fish rearing in fields planted to rice on the emission of these two greenhouse gases. In a field study| CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes were measured from a sub-humid tropical rice field of Cuttack| eastern India| as affected by integrated rice-fish farming under rainfed lowland conditions. Three Indian major carps| Catla catla H.| Labeo rohita H. and Cirrhinus mrigala H.| and Puntius gonionotus B. were stocked in rice fields planted to two rice cultivars in a split-plot design with no fish and fish as the main treatments and two rice varieties as sub-treatments with three replicates each. Fish rearing increased CH(4) emission from field plots planted to both the rice cultivars with 112% increase in CH(4) emission in cv. Varshadhan and 74% in case of cv. Durga. On the contrary| fish stocking reduced N(2)O emission from field plots planted to both the rice varieties. Movement of fish and associated bioturbation coupled with higher dissolved organic-C and CH(4) contents| and lower dissolved oxygen could be the reasons for release of larger quantities of CH(4) from rice + fish plots| while higher dissolved oxygen content might have influenced release of more N(2)O from the rice alone treatment. The total greenhouse gas emission| expressed as CO(2). equivalent global warming potential (GWP)| was considerably higher from rice + fish plots with CH(4) contributing a larger share (91%) as compared to rice alone plots (78-81%). On the contrary| N(2)O had a comparatively lesser contribution with 19-22% share in rice alone plots that was further reduced to 9% in rice + fish plots. However| considering the profit-loss analysis based on the market price of the produce| rice-fish system provided a net profit of $453.36 ha(-1) over rice alone system in spite of higher carbon credit compliance of a rice-fish ecosystem due to larger cumulative GWP. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9593,2009,3,4,Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice paddy soil as influenced by timing of application of hydroquinone and dicyandiamide,A pot trial and a field experiment were conducted to study the effect of timing of application of nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide (DCD) on N(2)O and CH(4) emissions from rice paddy soil. Four treatments including Treatment CK(1)| DCD-1 (application of DCD with basal fertilizer)| DCD-2 (DCD with tillering fertilizer) and DCD-3 (DCD with panicle initiation fertilizer)| were designed and implemented in pot experiment. Total N(2)O and CH(4) emissions from DCD-treated soils were decreased profoundly when compared with that from urea alone (P < 0.05). Application of DCD together with basal fertilizer| tillering fertilizer and panicle initiation fertilizer reduced N(2)O emission by 8| 30 and 2%| respectively| while those for CH(4) were 21| 8 and 1%. The field experiment with four treatments was carried out subsequently| and a kind of urease inhibitor hydroquinone (HQ) was also incorporated with DCD simultaneously. The combined use of HQ and DCD with basal fertilizer| tillering fertilizer and panicle initiation fertilizer decreased N(2)O emissions by 24| 56 and 17%| respectively| while those for CH(4) were 35| 19 and 12%. N(2)O emission was effectively reduced by the inhibitor(s) applied with tillering fertilizer before midseason aeration| while CH(4) emission was effectively decreased by the combined use of inhibitor(s) with basal fertilizer before rice transplanting. Furthermore| an increase in rice yield and a reduction of total global warming potential (GWP) of CH(4) and N(2)O could be achieved by using inhibitor(s) in rice paddy field. 9476,2009,3,4,Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Rice-Duck and Rice-Fish Complex Ecosystems and the Evaluation of Their Economic Significance,Rice-duck (RD) and rice-fish (RF) ecological systems are major complex planting and breeding models of rice paddy fields in southern China. Studying the methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions and their economic value from these two ecosystems can provide theoretical and practical basis for further development and utilization of these classical agricultural techniques. CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from RD and RF ecological systems were measured in situ by using static chambers technique. Using global warming potentials (GWPs)| we assessed the greenhouse effect of CH(4) and N(2)O and their economic value. Results showed that the peaks of CH(4) emission fluxes from RD and RF appeared at full tillering stage and at heading stage| and the average emission fluxes were significantly (P<0.05) lower than that from CK. N(2)O fluxes remained low when the field is flooded and high after draining the water. Compared with CK| the total amount of N(2)O emissions was significantly (P<0.05) higher and slightly lower than those from RD and RF| respectively. In 2006 and 2007| the total greenhouse effect of CH(4)| and N(2)O from RD and RF were 4 728.3 and 4 611 kg CO(2) ha(-1)| 4 545 and 4754.3 kg CO(2) ha(-1)| respectively. The costs of greenhouse effect were 970.89 and 946.81 RMB yuan ha(-1)| and 933.25 and 976.23 RMB yuan ha(-1)| respectively| which were significant lower than those from CK (5997.6 and 5391.5 RMB yuan ha(-1)). Except for the environment cost of CH(4) and N(2)O| the economic benefits from RD and RF were 2210.64 and 4881.92 RMB yuan ha(-1); 3 798.37 and 5 310.64 RMB yuan ha(-1)| respectively| higher than those from CK. Therefore| RD and RF complex ecological planting and breeding models can effectively decrease and control CH(4) and N(2)O emissions| and they are two of the effective strategies to reduce greenhouse gases from rice paddy fields and contribute in alleviating global warming. Thus| their adoption is important to the environment together with their economy benefits. 9796,2009,2,4,Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the ocean: A reassessment using basin-wide observations in the Atlantic,We measured the concentrations of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and methane (CH(4)) in the marine boundary layer and surface waters of the Atlantic Ocean from similar to 50 degrees N to similar to 50 degrees S during the Atlantic Meridional Transect expedition (AMT-7) in 1998. The cruise track transects a variety of meteorological and oceanographic regimes. Unusually high mixing ratios of atmospheric CH(4) were observed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere| coinciding with globally high levels of CH(4) associated with the El Nino event of 1998. Atmospheric N(2)O remained nearly invariable during the expedition| with only a small hemispheric difference (0.82 ppb). Throughout the cruise| these gases were saturated or supersaturated in the water. The coastal region was observed to be a significant source of CH(4)| while upwelling regions acted as strong N(2)O emission sources. We estimated the global oceanic emission of CH(4) to be 0.6-1.2 Tg a(-1)| comparable to previous estimates from basin-wide observations. However| our estimate turns out to be similar to 10 times lower than the value in the 1990 to 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports| which essentially all relied on the estimate by Ehhalt (1974). A bias toward high CH(4) saturation anomalies is probably responsible for the overestimation of the marine CH(4) source in the IPCC reports. The CH(4) saturation anomaly in the ocean appears to have remained constant over an interval of 20 years in spite of the increase of atmospheric CH(4)| suggesting that the increase of the surface water temperature driven by global warming may be a major factor. Meanwhile| the N(2)O emission from the ocean| estimated in the present study to be 0.9-1.7 Tg N a(-1)| is similar to 3 times lower than the value in the recent IPCC report [Denman et al.| 2007]| implying either weak upwelling activity or low amounts of dissolved N(2)O in upwelling subsurface waters| or both| in the Atlantic. 792,2009,2,4,Methane emissions from six crop species exposed to three components of global climate change: temperature| ultraviolet-B radiation and water stress,We examined the effects of temperature| ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation and watering regime on aerobic methane (CH(4)) emission from six crops-faba bean| sunflower| pea| canola| barley and wheat. Plants were grown in controlled-environment growth chambers under two temperature regimes (24/20 and 30/26 degrees C)| three levels of UVB radiation [0 (zero)| 5 (ambient) and 10 (enhanced) kJ mThe presence of maderensis Sardinella (Clupeidae) in the Gulf of Valencia (Western Mediterranean) is confirmed for the first time. This finding could indicate a shift in the distribution of the species in response to global warming.
10280,2009,2,3,On the relationship between total ozone and temperature in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere,Total ozone and atmospheric temperature are two variables that are closely connected with two important environmental problems: ozone depletion and global warming. Vertical temperature profiles and column ozone data are analysed to explore the relationship between these two variables at various levels in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over Athens| Greece during the period 1992-2004. The results obtained show an out-of-phase relationship between total ozone and temperature in the troposphere and an in-phase relationship in the lower stratosphere. Such a phase change is characteristic of all seasons. 10380,2009,2,4,On top of a Mediterranean Massif: Climate change and conservation of orophilous moths at the southern boundary of their range (Lepidoptera: Macroheterocera),During the last few decades the tree line has shifted upward on Mediterranean mountains. This has resulted in a decrease in the area of the sub-alpine prairie habitat and an increase in the threat to strictly orophilous moths that occur there. This also occurred on the Pollino Massif due to the increase in termperature and decrease in rainfall in Southern Italy. We found that a number of moths present in the alpine prairie at 2000 m appear to be absent from similar habitats at 1500-1700 m. Some of these species are thought to be at the lower latitude margin of their range. Among them| Pareulype berberata and Entephria flavicinctata are estimated to be the most threatened because their populations are isolated and seem to be small in size. The tops of these mountains are inhabited by specialized moth communities| which are strikingly different from those at lower altitudes on the same massif further south. The majority of the species recorded in the sub-alpine prairies studied occur most frequently and abundantly in the core area of the Pollino Massif| Species and| as a consequence| communities found at high altitudes are highly vulnerable to climate warming| and need further monitoring. 9651,2009,4,4,Optimization of Recovery Processes for Multiple Economic and Environmental Objectives,Of the three spheres of sustainability-economic development| environmental stewardship| and societal equity| only the first two are quantifiable based on process variables. While economic criteria such as profit before taxes| payback period| and net present worth are well established| environmental objectives are recent and there is no general consensus on aggregation methods for calculating environmental impact. Many contributing factors have been identified for environmental impacts: impact on humans| ecosystem-terrestrial and aquatic| and local/global temperatures-global warming and ozone depletion| as well as photochemical oxidation| acid rain| and eutrophication. However| reported studies have used one aggregate environmental index as the objective in process design besides one economic objective. Hence| feasibility and usefulness of process optimization for more than two economic and environmental objectives is studied. Two case studies: a VOC (volatile organic component) recovery system and a solvent recovery system are chosen and optimized for both economic and environmental objectives using the elitist nondominated sorting genetic algorithm. The contributing factors to the environmental impacts are optimized individually or grouped into a few indices where appropriate. The objectives chosen for each round of optimization is two| several| or more| with at least one economic and one environmental objective. As they are partially or totally conflicting| Pareto-optimal solutions are obtained. These elucidate the trade-offs present| and the decision maker would be better equipped in choosing the best solution. The net flow method is then used to identify the best Pareto-optimal solution| whereby the decision maker's preference has to be declared. Pareto-optimal Solutions and the best Pareto-optimal solution for the two case studies are presented and discussed. Insights gained from considering a number of environmental objectives for process optimization are highlighted. 9462,2009,2,4,Optimized Flood Control in the Columbia River Basin for a Global Warming Scenario,Anticipated future temperature changes in the mountainous U. S. Pacific Northwest will cause reduced spring snow pack| earlier melt| earlier spring peak flow and lower summer flow in transient rain-snow and snowmelt dominant river basins. In the context of managed flood control| these systematic changes are likely to disrupt the balance between flood control and reservoir refill in existing reservoir systems. To adapt to these hydrologic changes| refill timing and evacuation requirements for flood control need to be modified. This work poses a significant systems engineering problem| especially for large| multiobjective water systems. An existing optimization/simulation procedure is refined for rebalancing flood control and refill objectives for the Columbia River Basin for anticipated global warming. To calibrate the optimization model for the 20th century flow| the objective function is tuned to reproduce the current reliability of reservoir refill| while providing comparable levels of flood control to those produced by current flood control practices. After the optimization model is calibrated using the 20th century flow the same objective function is used to develop flood control curves for a global warming scenario which assumes an approximately 2 C increase in air temperature. Robust decreases in system storage deficits are simulated for the climate change scenario when optimized flood rule curves replace the current flood control curves| without increasing monthly flood risks. 9509,2009,3,4,Optimizing geologic CO(2) sequestration by injection in deep saline formations below oil reservoirs,The purpose of this research is to present a best-case paradigm for geologic CO(2) storage: CO(2) injection and sequestration in saline formations below oil reservoirs. This includes the saline-only section below the oil-water contact (OWC) in oil reservoirs| a storage target neglected in many current storage capacity assessments. This also includes saline aquifers (high porosity and permeability formations) immediately below oil-bearing formations. While this is a very specific injection target| we contend that most| if not all| oil-bearing basins in the US contain a great volume of such strata| and represent a rather large CO(2) storage capacity option. We hypothesize that these are the best storage targets in those basins. The purpose of this research is to evaluate this hypothesis. We quantitatively compared CO(2) behavior in oil reservoirs and brine formations by examining the thermophysical properties Of CO(2)| CO(2)-brine| and CO(2)-Oil in various pressure| temperature| and salinity conditions. In addition| we compared the distribution of gravity number (N)| which characterizes a tendency towards buoyancy-driven CO(2) migration| and mobility ratio (M)| which characterizes the impeded CO(2) migration| in oil reservoirs and brine formations. Our research suggests competing advantages and disadvantages Of CO(2) injection in oil reservoirs vs. brine formations: (1) CO(2) solubility in oil is significantly greater than in brine (over 30 times); (2) the tendency of buoyancy-driven CO(2) migration is smaller in oil reservoirs because density contrast between oil and CO(2) is smaller than it between brine and oil (the approximate density contrast between CO(2) and crude oil is similar to 100 kg/m(3) and between CO(2) and brine is similar to 350 kg/m(3)): (3) the increased density of oil and brine due to the CO(2) dissolution is not significant (about 7-15 kg/m(3)); (4) the viscosity reduction of oil due to CO(2) dissolution is significant (from 5790 to 98 mPa s). We compared these competing properties and processes by performing numerical simulations. Results suggest that deep saline CO(2) injection immediately below oil formations reduces buoyancy-driven CO(2) Migration and| at the same time| minimizes the amount of mobile CO(2) compared to conventional deep saline CO(2) injection (i.e.| CO(2) injection into brine formations not below oil-bearing strata). Finally| to investigate practical aspects and field applications of this injection paradigm| we characterized oil-bearing formations and their thickness (capacity) as a component of the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) field deployments. The field-testing program includes specific sites in Utah| New Mexico| Wyoming| and western Texas of the United States. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9949,2009,2,4,Origin of the lichen-spruce woodland in the closed-crown forest zone of eastern Canada,We investigate the timing and factors responsible for the transformation of closed-crown forests into lichen-spruce woodlands. The study area extends between 70 degrees and 72 degrees W in the closed-crown forest zone from its southern limit near 47 degrees 30' N to its northern limit at the contact with the lichen-spruce woodland zone around 52 degrees 10' N. A total of 24 lichen-spruce woodlands were selected. Radiocarbon dating of charcoals at mineral soil contact and within the organic horizons allowed the principal factors causing the degradation of the closed-crown forest to be identified| i.e. light fires| successive fires and the occurrence of a spruce budworm epidemic followed by a fire. Charcoals dated in the organic horizon were less than 200 years old| suggesting a recent transformation of the closed-crown forest following surface fires. Before their transformation into lichen-spruce woodlands| stands were occupied by old| dense forests that originated from fires dating back to 1000 yr bp. The radiocarbon dating of charcoals in the organic horizon indicated that several stands burned twice in less than 50 years| while others burned shortly after a spruce budworm epidemic. Light fires are frequent within the lichen-spruce woodlands according to multiple charcoal layers found within the organic matter horizon. While closed-crown forests are predicted to expand under climate warming| compound disturbances diminish the natural regeneration of the closed-crown forests in the south and favour the expansion of lichen-spruce woodlands. As black spruce germinates on mineral soils| surface fires accentuate the expansion of the lichen-spruce woodlands southward. Under global warming| warmer springs will lead to earlier low-intensity fires that do not remove as much organic matter| and hence prevent conditions suitable for black spruce regeneration. Also| spruce budworm reduces seed production for a certain time. The occurrence of fire during this period is critical for regeneration of black spruce. 971,2009,5,4,Out of Africa and into an ice age: on the role of global climate change in the late Pleistocene migration of early modern humans out of Africa,The results from two climate model simulations are used to explore the relationship between North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of African aridity around 100|000 years ago. Through the use of illustrative simulations with an Earth System Climate Model| it is shown that freshwater fluxes associated with ice sheet surges into the North Atlantic| known as Heinrich events| lead to the Southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone over Africa. This| combined with the overall increased aridity in the cooler mean climate| leads to Substantial changes in simulated African vegetation cover| particularly in the Sahel. We suggest that Heinrich events| which occurred episodically throughout the last glacial cycle| led to abrupt changes in climate that may have rendered large parts of North| East| and West Africa unsuitable for hominin occupation| thus compelling early Homo sapiens to migrate out of Africa. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9303,2009,2,4,Outbreak and persistence of opportunistic symbiotic dinoflagellates during the 2005 Caribbean mass coral 'bleaching' event,Reef corals are sentinels for the adverse effects of rapid global warming on the planet's ecosystems. Warming sea surface temperatures have led to frequent episodes of bleaching and mortality among corals that depend on endosymbiotic micro-algae (Symbiodinium) for their survival. However| our understanding of the ecological and evolutionary response of corals to episodes of thermal stress remains inadequate. For the first time| we describe how the symbioses of major reef-building species in the Caribbean respond to severe thermal stress before| during and after a severe bleaching event. Evidence suggests that background populations of Symbiodinium trenchi (D1a) increased in prevalence and abundance| especially among corals that exhibited high sensitivity to stress. Contrary to previous hypotheses| which posit that a change in symbiont occurs subsequent to bleaching| S. trenchi increased in the weeks leading up to and during the bleaching episode and disproportionately dominated colonies that did not bleach. During the bleaching event| approximately 20 per cent of colonies surveyed harboured this symbiont at high densities (calculated at less than 1.0% only months before bleaching began). However| competitive displacement by homologous symbionts significantly reduced S. trenchi's prevalence and dominance among colonies after a 2-year period following the bleaching event. While the extended duration of thermal stress in 2005 provided an ecological opportunity for a rare host-generalist symbiont| it remains unclear to what extent the rise and fall of S. trenchi was of ecological benefit or whether its increased prevalence was an indicator of weakening coral health. 9395,2009,2,4,Oxidative Stress Impairs the Heat Stress Response and Delays Unfolded Protein Recovery,Background: Environmental changes| air pollution and ozone depletion are increasing oxidative stress| and global warming threatens health by heat stress. We now face a high risk of simultaneous exposure to heat and oxidative stress. However| there have been few studies investigating their combined adverse effects on cell viability. Principal Findings: Pretreatment of hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) specifically and highly sensitized cells to heat stress| and enhanced loss of mitochondrial membrane potential. H(2)O(2) exposure impaired the HSP40/HSP70 induction as heat shock response (HSR) and the unfolded protein recovery| and enhanced eIF2 alpha phosphorylation and/or XBP1 splicing| land marks of ER stress. These H(2)O(2)-mediated effects mimicked enhanced heat sensitivity in HSF1 knockdown or knockout cells. Importantly| thermal preconditioning blocked H(2)O(2)-mediated inhibitory effects on refolding activity and rescued HSF1 +/+ MEFs| but neither blocked the effects nor rescued HSF1 -/- MEFs. These data strongly suggest that inhibition of HSR and refolding activity is crucial for H(2)O(2)-mediated enhanced heat sensitivity. Conclusions: H(2)O(2) blocks HSR and refolding activity under heat stress| thereby leading to insufficient quality control and enhancing ER stress. These uncontrolled stress responses may enhance cell death. Our data thus highlight oxidative stress as a crucial factor affecting heat tolerance. 941,2009,2,4,Oxygen and hydrogen isotopic water characteristics of the Aral Sea| Central Asia,The Aral Sea| located in a semi-arid environment| undergoes substantial annual (1200 mm/yr) and decadal lake-level fluctuations due to extreme seasonality in evaporation and precipitation along with steadily reduced river discharge. To trace the source ofthe lake water and understand the internal dynamics of the lake| we used oxygen and deuterium isotope composition of the lake water collected at different depths during spring and autumn from 2004 to 2006. We collected data from both the western (W) and eastern (E) basins ofthe Large Aral Sea as well as the channel connecting the two basins. The oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios ofthe lake water vary widely (+4.6 to -5.3%. and -48 to +11%.| respectively). We further measured isotopic ratios of groundwater leakage near the shoreline of the W basin of the Large Aral Sea and released in an artesian well on the Kulandy Peninsula. These ratios range from -16 to +3.4%. (delta(180)O) and - 120 to +2.2% (delta D). The river water displays ratios of -12% (delta(18)O) and -81.3% (delta D). Precipitation from winter and early spring 2006 exhibit delta(18)O values of -14% (snow) and +0.2% (rain) and delta D values of -97% (snow) and +3.6% (rain). The oxygen and hydrogen isotope snapshots show that in addition to evaporation| groundwater effluent flows at different depths are major contributors to the lake in spring and autumn. The d-excess| ranging between -25% (lake water) and +10% (groundwater)| further demonstrates the impact of both effluent groundwater and evaporation on the isotopic composition of the lake water. Thus| stable isotope ratios can provide a first insight into seasonally triggered hydrologic interactions in the western part of the endorheic Aral Sea region. Remote sensing studies prove that major groundwater leakage occurs along the entire shoreline| except for the western shore where spatial resolution was too low. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9968,2009,2,4,Oxygen limited thermal tolerance and performance in the lugworm Arenicola marina: A latitudinal comparison,Global warming trends in the marine environment currently lead to poleward shifts in the distribution of marine fauna along European coastlines indicating limited thermal tolerance of affected species and potential loss of their southernmost populations. The present study analyses the degree and limits of thermal specialisation in various populations of a key species of the intertidal zone| the lugworm Arenicola marina| which is exposed to highly fluctuating conditions in temperature| salinity| pH and oxygen levels during the seasonal as well as the tidal cycle. Thermal windows of tolerance and exercise performance were compared in three populations from the Russian White Sea| the German North Sea and the French Atlantic coast. Digging experiments in natural marine sediments quantified performance capacity and its optimum temperature. Temperature dependent ventilation and respiration were analysed in lugworms dwelling in artificial self-perfused burrows. Haemoglobin oxygen affinity was examined for an evaluation of population specific adaptations in the oxygen supply system. The results reflect a shift of both the thermal window and the thermal optimum towards higher temperatures with decreasing latitude. This shift was accompanied by a reduction of performance amplitude| i.e. the absolute number of digging periods| and a widening of the distance between critical temperatures| i.e. the total aerobic window of thermal tolerance. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 760,2009,5,4,Palaeobiology of an extinct Ice Age mammal: Stable isotope and cementum analysis of giant deer teeth,The extinct giant deer| Megaloceros giganteus| is among the largest and most famous of the cervids. Megaloceros remains have been uncovered across Europe and western Asia. but the highest concentrations come from Irish bogs and caves Although Megaloceros has enjoyed a great deal of attention over the centuries| paleobiological study has focused oil morphometric and distributional work until now. This paper presents quantitative data that have implications for understanding its sudden extirpation in western Europe during a period of global climate change approximately 10.600 (14)C years ago (ca 12|500 calendar years BP). We report here the first stable isotope analysis of giant deer teeth. which we combine with dental cementum accretion in order to document age| diet and life-history seasonality from birth until death Enamel delta(13)C and delta(18)O measured in the second and third molars from seven individual giant deer Suggest a grass and forbbased diet supplemented with browse in a deteriorating. possibly water-stressed| environment| and a season of birth around spring/early summer Cementurm data indicate that the ages of the specimens ranged from 6.5 to 14 years and that they possessed mature antlers by autumn| similar to extant cervids. In addition. the possibility for combining these two techniques in future mammalian paleoccological studies is considered. The data presented in this study imply that Megoloceros would have indeed been vulnerable to extirpation during the terminal Pleistocene in Ireland. and this information is relevant to understanding the broader pattern of its extinction (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved 983,2009,5,4,Palaeolimnological evidence for environmental change over the past millennium from Lake Qinghai sediments: A review and future research prospective,Lake Qinghai| on the NE Tibetan Plateau| is China's largest natural lake that lies at a triple junction of major climatic influences| making it sensitive to global climate change. As such| the sediments of Lake Qinghai have been the focus of numerous palaeoenvironmental studies spanning a range of timescales. However| as a result of uncertain age controls| uncertainties over interpretation of the proxies| the relative dearth of proxy calibration and lack of understanding of the modern lake system a coherent picture of climate over the NE Tibetan Plateau has yet to emerge from Lake Qinghai's sediment record. We review the state of knowledge for this important site| focusing on the last millennium. A comparison of the major proxy records show significant variability with a general pattern of change over the last 1000 years| notably those linked to the onset of the Little lee Age| but due to poor chronological constraints a detailed picture of climate change cannot be established. Further| some of the proxy records produced from Lake Qinghai's sediments are open to alternative explanations. This compounds the sediment record as a palaeoenvironmental archive. To fully realise the potential of Lake Qinghai| future research must concentrate on defining a reliable old carbon effect for the lake| calibrating proxy records with climatic processes and understanding spatial variability of proxy records within this large lake. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 9518,2009,5,2,Paleoclimatic reconstructions for the south of Valdai Hills (European Russia) as paleo-analogs of possible regional vegetation changes under global warming,The possible response of forest ecosystems of south taiga at the south of Valdai Hills on projected future global warming was assessed using analysis of pollen| plant macrofossil and radiocarbon data from four profiles of buried organic sediments of the last interglacial and several cores from modern raised bogs and two small forest mires in the Central Forest State Natural Biosphere Reserve (CFSNBR; Twer region| Russia). The future pattern of climatic conditions for the period up to 2100 was derived using the data of A2| B1 and A1B emission scenarios calculated by the global climatic model ECHAM5-MPIOM (Roeckner E et al 2003 The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model Description| Report 349 (Hamburg: Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology) p 127). The paleoclimatic reconstructions showed that the optimum of the Holocene (the Late Atlantic period| 4500-4800 (14)C yr BP) and the optimal phases of the last interglacial (Mikulino| Eemian| 130 000-115 000 yr BP) can be considered as possible analogs for projected climatic conditions of the middle and the end of the 21st century| respectively. The climate of the CFSNBR during the Holocene climatic optimum was characterized by higher winter (about 3 degrees C higher than at present) and summer temperatures (about 1 degrees C higher than present values). Precipitation was close to present values (about 600-800 mm yr(-1)). Vegetation was represented by mixed coniferous and broad-leaved forest. In the warmest phases of the last interglacial the winter temperature was 5-8 degrees C higher than present values. The summer temperatures were also about 2-4 degrees C higher. Broad-leaved and hornbeam trees were the dominant tree species in vegetation cover. 10162,2009,2,4,Paleolimnological records of recent glacier recession in the Rwenzori Mountains| Uganda-D. R. Congo,The status of tropical glaciers is enormously important to our understanding of past| present| and future climate change| yet lack of continuous quantitative records of alpine glacier extent on the highest mountains of tropical East Africa prior to the 20th century has left the timing and drivers of recent glacier recession in the region equivocal. Here we investigate recent changes (the last 150-700 years) in lacustrine sedimentation| glacier extent| and biogeochemical processes in the Rwenzori Mountains (Uganda- Democratic Republic of Congo) by comparing sedimentological (organic and siliciclastic component determined by loss-on-ignition; LOI) and organic geochemical profiles (carbon and nitrogen abundance| ratio| and isotopic composition of sedimentary organic matter) from lakes occupying presently glaciated catchments against similar profiles from lakes located in catchments lacking glaciers. The siliciclastic content of sediments in the 'glacial lakes' significantly decreases towards the present| whereas 'non-glacial lakes' generally show weak trends in their siliciclastic content over time| demonstrating that changes in the siliciclastic content of glacial lake sediments primarily record fluctuations in glacier extent. Radiometric dating of our sediment cores indicates that prior to their late 19th-century recession Rwenzori glaciers stood at expanded 'Little Ice Age' positions for several centuries under a regionally dry climate regime| and that recession was underway by 1870 AD| during a regionally wet episode. These findings suggest that the influence of late 19th century reductions in precipitation in triggering Rwenzori glacier recession is weaker than previously thought. Our organic geochemical data indicate that glacier retreat has significantly affected carbon cycling in Afroalpine lakes| but trends in aquatic ecosystem functioning are variable among lakes and require more detailed analysis. 10188,2009,4,4,Paradoxes of Global Warming Control,The current strategy of global warming control is discussed. The advantages and drawbacks of this strategy are analyzed. The conclusion is made that a reduction in the industrial emission of carbon dioxide is not enough to stop temperature growth on our planet. 816,2009,2,2,Parameterizing plankton functional type models: insights from a dynamical systems perspective,The spectre of anthropogenic global climate change has focused attention on biogeochemical cycling in the oceans as marine plankton ecosystems are involved in the cycling of several compounds thought to have significant implications for climate. To better understand these processes| modellers are developing plankton functional type (PFT) models that group plankton according to their biogeochemical properties. There is some debate as to whether our understanding of plankton ecosystems is sufficiently well developed for PFT models to be reliable and for their predictions to be treated with confidence. In this paper| we examine the dynamical properties of a generic predator-prey-prey PFT model| then apply these analysis techniques to a simple example PFT model with two phytoplankton and one zooplankton in order to explore its parameter space. We find that parameter combinations for which all PFTs stay extant for all time appear rare| but develop a simple heuristic that allows such parameter sets to be identified relatively easily for many PFT models. We observe that such systems often have phytoplankton with similar growth rates| but that differ in other properties such as differing nutrient utilization strategies or different susceptibilities to grazing. We also note that persistent PFT systems are more likely if neither phytoplankton have a low specific mortality rate or is a highly nutritious food for the grazer. 914,2009,2,4,Parasitic lung infections,Purpose of review Global climate change and population explosion leading to changes in natural ecosystem and travel across the continents have resulted in an increase in the transmission of parasites to human beings. This review focuses on recent advancements in parasitic lung infections. Recent findings Invasive parasitic diseases including lung infections are increasingly being reported in patients with immunodeficiency syndromes. A recombinant kinesin-related antigen of Leishmania donovani has been validated with El using urine samples for the diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis. Pyruvate kinase deficiency has been shown to provide protection against Plasmodium falciparum infection. Intravenous artesunate is an alternative drug for the treatment of severe malaria. The best way to protect from malaria is the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated bednets. Biennial treatment with praziquantel has been found to be cost-effective treatment for control of infection with Schistosoma haematobium. Pulmonary paragonimiasis can be diagnosed by fine needle aspiration biopsy of pulmonary nodules. Strongyloides stercoralis hyperinfection can mimic accelerated idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Migratory nodular shadows with halos are important chest computed tomographic findings in human toxocariasis. Summary Patients with immunodeficiency syndromes (HIV infection| organ transplantation and immunosuppressive drugs| including corticosteroids) should be evaluated for early detection of parasitic lung infections. 9606,2009,2,4,Particle sedimentation patterns in the eastern Fram Strait during 2000-2005: Results from the Arctic long-term observatory HAUSGARTEN,Since 2000 long-term measurements of vertical particle flux have been performed with moored sediment traps at the long-term observatory HAUSGARTEN in the eastern Fram Strait (79 degrees N/4 degrees E). The study area| which is seasonally covered with ice| is located in the confluence zone of the northward flowing warm saline Atlantic water with cold| low salinity water masses of Arctic origin. Current projections suggest that this area is particularly vulnerable to global warming. Total matter fluxes and components thereof (carbonate| particulate organic carbon and nitrogen| biogenic silica| biomarkers) revealed a bimodal seasonal pattern showing elevated sedimentation rates during May/June and August/September. Annual total matter flux (dry weight| DW) at similar to 300 m depth varied between 13 and 32 g m(-2) a(-1) during 2000 and 2005. Of this total flux 6-13% was due to CaCO(3)| 4-21% to refractory particulate organic carbon (POC)| and 3-8% to biogenic particulate silica (bPSi). The annual flux of all biogenic components together was almost constant during the period studied (8.5-8.8 g m(-2) a(-1))| although this varied from 27% to 67% of the total annual flux. The fraction was lowest in a year characterized by the longest duration of ice coverage (91 and 70 days for the calendar year and summer season| May-September| respectively). Biomarker analyses revealed that organic matter originating from marine sources was present in excess of terrigenious material in the sedimented matter throughout most of the study period. Fluxes of recognizable phyto- and protozooplankton cells amounted up to 60 x 10(6) m(-2) d(-1). Diatoms and coccolithophorids were the most abundant organisms. Diatoms| mainly pennate species| dominated during the first years of the investigation. A shift in the composition occurred during the last year when numbers of diatoms declined considerably| leading to a dominance of coccolithoporids. This was also reflected in a decrease in the sedimentation of bPSi. The sedimentation of biogenic matter| however| did not differ from the amount observed during the previous years. Among the larger organisms| pteropods at times contributed significantly to both the total matter and CaCO(3)| fluxes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9540,2009,2,4,PASTO: Vegetation dynamics and expectations of the population in terms of landscape,The population barely perceives changes in vegetation that occur very quickly in subalpine regions. In recent decades| large areas have been invaded by woody plants| whilst demand for an open| attractive and readable landscape remains strong. The results of the modeling of vegetation dynamics carried out on the pasture of Larzey show a strong and rapid development of tree cover| accelerated by global warming| despite the maintenance of grazing pressure. This creates a loss in biodiversity as well as significant loss of attractiveness for the population. Thought should be engaged| on how maintaining landscapes with high environmental| aesthetic and social values| as well as on the means necessary to recognize and enhance landscape services provided by mountain agriculture. 9329,2009,2,4,Patterns of late-season photosynthate movement in sugar maple saplings,A more detailed understanding of seasonal dynamics of carbon allocation between roots and shoots of temperate zone trees is needed. We labeled sapling stands of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh) with (13)CO(2) in four 3 in diameter chambers during a 3 week interval in September 2006 and traced the movement of this (13)C pulse through trees and soil during autumn and spring. High enrichment of (13)C in foliage was achieved (delta(13)C = 387 parts per thousand +/- 16 parts per thousand). Late-season photosynthate was strongly mobilized during leaf senescence and stored in twigs| wood| and roots. Very high (13)C enrichment of Soil CO(2) emissions at this time (delta(13)C = 766 parts per thousand +/- 82 parts per thousand) indicated the role of late-season photosynthesis in supplying root metabolism after the growing season. Rhizosphere soil was weakly enriched in (13)C during fall| and increased significantly over the winter. Earthworms were highly enriched in fall| indicating that they consumed roots. In spring| (13)C was strongly mobilized to growing shoots but not to growing fine roots; apparently| fine root growth in spring was not supplied by late-season stored photosynthate. These results provide insights into the seasonal dynamics of temperate tree carbon allocation with implications for disruption of these dynamics by global warming. 9293,2009,3,3,Peak globalization: Climate change| oil depletion and global trade,The global trade in goods depends upon reliable| inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs| climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization| after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation| contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9359,2009,2,4,Pedogenesis| permafrost| and soil moisture as controlling factors for soil nitrogen and carbon contents across the Tibetan Plateau,We investigated the main parameters [e.g. mean annual air temperature | mean annual soil temperature| mean annual precipitation| soil moisture (SM)| soil chemistry| and physics] influencing soil organic carbon (C(org))| soil total nitrogen (N(t)) as well as plant available nitrogen (N(min)) at 47 sites along a 1200 km transect across the high-altitude and low-latitude permafrost region of the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau. This large-scale survey allows testing the hypothesis that beside commonly used ecological variables| diversity of pedogenesis is another major component for assessing carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling. The aim of the presented research was to evaluate consequences of permafrost degradation for C and N stocks and hence nutrient supply for plants| as the transect covers all types of permafrost including heavily degraded areas and regions without permafrost. Our results show that SM is the dominant parameter explaining 64% of C(org) and 60% of N variation. The extent of the effect of SM is determined by permafrost| current aeolian sedimentation occurring mostly on degraded sites| and pedogenesis. Thus| the explanatory power for C and N concentrations is significantly improved by adding CaCO(3) content (P=0.012 for C(org); P=0.006 for N(t)) and soil texture (P=0.077 for C(org); P=0.015 for N(t)) to the model. For soil temperature| no correlations were detected indicating that in high-altitude grassland ecosystems influenced by permafrost| SM overrides soil temperature as the main driving parameter at landscape scale. It was concluded from the current study that degradation of permafrost and corresponding changes in soil hydrology combined with a shift from mature stages of pedogenesis to initial stages| have severe impact on soil C and plant available N. This may alter biodiversity patterns as well as the development and functioning of the ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau. 9324,2009,3,4,Performance of alternative refrigerant R430A on domestic water purifiers,In this study| performance of R430A is examined numerically and experimentally in an effort to replace HFC134a used in refrigeration system of domestic water purifiers. Even though HFC134a is used predominantly in such a system these days| it needs to be phased out in near future in most of the developed countries due to its high global warming potential. To solve this problem| cycle simulation and experiments are carried out with a new refrigerant mixture of 76%R152a/24%R600a using actual water purifiers. This mixture is numbered and listed as R430A by ASHRAE recently. Test results show that the system performance is greatly influenced by the amount of charge due to the small internal volume of the refrigeration system in water purifiers. With the optimum amount of charge of 21-22 g| about 50% of HFC134a. the energy consumption of R430A is 13.4% lower than that of HFC134a. The compressor dome and discharge temperatures and condenser center temperature of R430A are very similar to those of HFC134a for the optimum charge. Overall| R430A| a new long term environmentally safe refrigerant| is a good alternative for HFC134a in domestic water purifiers requiring no major change in the system. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10053,2009,2,4,Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China,Global warming is currently of great concern. Yet the ecological effects of low-frequency climate variations remain largely unknown. Recent analyses of interdecadal variability in population abundance of the Oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China have revealed negative associations with temperature and positive associations with Yangtze drought and flood frequencies during the past millennium (AD 957-1956). In order to shed new light on the causal relationships between locust abundance| floods| droughts and temperature in ancient China| we used wavelet analysis to explore how the coherencies between the different variables at different frequencies have been changed during the past millennium. We find consistent in-phase coherencies between locusts and drought/flood frequencies| and out-of-phase coherencies between locusts and temperature and between drought/flood and temperature at period components of 160-170 years. Similar results are obtained when historical data of drought/flood frequencies of the Yangtze Delta region are used| despite flood data showing a weak and somewhat inconsistent association with other factors. We suggest that previously unreported periodic cooling of 160-170-year intervals dominate climatic variability in China through the past millennium| the cooling events promoting locust plagues by enhancing temperature-associated drought/flood events. Our results signify a rare example of possible benign effects of global warming on the regional risk of natural disasters such as flood/drought events and outbreaks of pest insects. 9581,2009,5,4,Periodicities and non-stationary modes in tree rings temperature variability record of the western Himalayas by multitaper and wavelet spectral analyses,We examined a newly constructed tree ringtemperature variability record from the western Himalayan regions to investigate trend and periodic signatures| if any| and their possible link with external and/or internal forcing. Two powerful spectral techniques| e. g. multi-taper method (MTM) and wavelet transform analysis were used to identify coherent periodic and non-stationary modes in the data. MTM spectral analyses of the tree-ring record spanning from AD 1200 to about AD 2000 revealed evidence for statistically significant| at more than 95% confidence level| periodicities in the range of inter-annual 3.5-8.9 years and a multi-decadal 35-40 years frequency band. A detailed analysis by dividing the record into two parts| AD 1200-1600 and AD 1600-2000 years| further suggests that a quasiperiodicity of 65-90 years was also dominant in the later part of the record. Solar forcing fluctuation on this time scale (Gleissberg cycle) could be the pacemaker of the temperature variability and global warming. Higher frequency signals in ENSO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) continue to be recorded by tree rings and match well with the above frequency bands signifying their possible linkages. Wavelet spectral analysis of the same data also revealed almost similar periodicities with intermittent cyclic pattern. Cross and coherency spectra between NAO and temperature records further emphasize the link. A striking feature of the wavelet power spectra| however| is the sudden 'breakdown' in spectral power along the multidecadal cycle of 30-40 years| which might suggest a phase change in forcing mechanism leading to fundamental reorganization in land-ocean-atmospheric processes. 9678,2009,3,4,Phase and volumetric behaviour of mixtures of carbon dioxide (R-744) and synthetic lubricant oils,Some substances currently used as working fluids in mechanical vapour compression refrigeration systems| such as hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)| will have to be replaced in the near future by refrigerants with lower global warming and ozone depletion potentials. Carbon dioxide (R-744) is regarded as one of the most promising environmentally friendly refrigerants due to its non-flammability| non-toxicity and low cost. Refrigeration compressors need lubricant oil to minimise the mechanical losses| and the selection of the most appropriate oil type to operate with R-744 is influenced by the complex phase behaviour observed in mixtures of R-744 and the most commonly used oil types. In this work| the phase equilibrium and density behaviour of mixtures of R-744 and two synthetic lubricants| namely| a polyolester (POE) ISO 68 and an alkylbenzene (AB) ISO 32| were investigated experimentally at 285| 298|308|328 and 348 K. The 81 data points were correlated with the PC-SAFT equation of state using a single temperature-dependent interaction parameter for each mixture. The absolute average deviations associated with the refrigerant mass fraction predictions were 5.87% (R-744/POE) and 3.81% (R-744/AB). Liquid densities were predicted with absolute average deviations of 5.32% (R-744/POE) and 1.58% (R-744/AB). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 980,2009,4,4,Phenotypic variance| plasticity and heritability estimates of critical thermal limits depend on methodological context,Biologists have long been concerned with measuring thermal performance curves and limits because of their significance to fitness. Basic experimental design may have a marked effect on the outcome of such measurements| and this is true especially of the experimental rates of temperature change used during assessments of critical thermal limits to activity. To date| the focus of work has almost exclusively been on the effects of rate variation on mean values of the critical limits. If the rate of temperature change used in an experimental trial affects not only the trait mean but also its variance| estimates of heritable variation would also be profoundly affected. Moreover| if the outcomes of acclimation are likewise affected by methodological approach| assessment of beneficial acclimation and other hypotheses might also be compromised. In this article| we determined whether this is the case for critical thermal limits using a population of the model species Drosophila melanogaster and the invasive ant species Linepithema humile. We found that effects of the different rates of temperature change are variable among traits and species. However| in general| different rates of temperature change resulted in different phenotypic variances and different estimates of heritability| presuming that genetic variance remains constant. We also found that different rates resulted in different conclusions regarding the responses of the species to acclimation| especially in the case of L. humile. Although it seems premature to dismiss past generalities concerning interspecific and acclimation-related variation in critical thermal limits| we recommend that conditions during trials be appropriately selected| carefully reported and rigorously controlled. 9614,2009,2,4,Phosphorus and Greenhouse Gas Dynamics in a Drained Calcareous Wetland Soil in Minnesota,Restoration of wetland hydrology can produce ecological benefits but may have unintended consequences. We examined effects of altered water level on release of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and greenhouse gases (GHG) in soil cores from a marsh being evaluated for restoration. We also measured field concentrations of DRP and other constituents in wetland porewater. Intact cores from a sampling location with higher Fe and lower calcium carbonate (CaCO(3)) contents released more DRP than another location| and displayed higher DRP under completely saturated compared to partly drained conditions. Porewater samples collected from the high-Fe location also contained higher DRP levels. Chemical data suggest that redox-driven reactions largely controlled DRP levels at the high-Fe site| while CaCO(3) adsorption was more important at the low-Fe site. Over the long term| water table elevation may attenuate P draining from the wetland due to decreased mineralization. However| such measures may increase P release in the short term. Raising the water level in soil cores resulted in decreased nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions| increased methane (CH(4)) emissions| and an overall increase in total global warming potential (GWP). The proportion of total GWP contributed by N(2)O decreased from 14% to <= 1% as water level was raised| while the proportion contributed by CH| increased from 10 to 20% to 60 to 80%. Restoration of hydrology in the Rice Lake wetland has the potential to affect both local water quality and global air quality These combined effects complicate the cost-to-benefit analysis of such wetland restoration efforts. 798,2009,2,4,Physiological response of the symbiotic gorgonian Eunicella singularis to a long-term temperature increase,Increase in seawater temperature is one of the major effects of global climate change that affects marine organisms| including Cnidaria. Among them| gorgonians from the NW Mediterranean Sea| such as the species Eunicella singularis| have suffered spectacular and extensive damage. We thus investigated in a controlled laboratory experiment the response of E. singularis to a long-term increase in temperature and we took a special interest in its photosynthetic and calcification response to the stress. Two populations collected at 15 and 35 m depths were studied in order to determine whether there was a difference in sensitivity to thermal stress between living depths. Our results show: (a) that calcification and photosynthesis were impacted only when gorgonians were maintained for more than two weeks at 26 degrees C| and (b) that colonies of E. singularis living in shallow waters were less tolerant than those living in deep waters. Because E. singularis is a symbiotic species| we have also discussed the potential role of symbiosis in the thermotolerance response. 10256,2009,2,4,Phytoplankton biodiversity and NW Mediterranean Sea warming: changes in the dinoflagellate genus Ceratium in the 20th century,Our knowledge of the response of phytoplankton to climate change is restricted by the lack of phytoplankton long-term studies| especially those reporting species data. To circumvent this problem| we combined recent data from sampling at monitoring sites with old bibliographic data. The study was conducted on the genus Ceratium (planktonic dinoflagellates) in the NW Mediterranean| as numerous studies have been conducted in the area since the beginning of the 20th century. In addition| species of this highly diverse genus are known to be particularly sensitive to water temperature| and should thus be responsive to global warming. The temporal distribution of Ceratium species over the last century showed a progressive disappearance from the surface layer of likely stenothermic species| which may have moved to deeper layers in response to water warming| along with a decrease of species richness during the annual cycle. Seasonal and phenological aspects of Ceratium assemblages were also affected| as illustrated by the earlier timing in the minimum of richness. A change in the overall species assemblage also occurred from past to present in the Ligurian Sea| suggesting a warming in this area consistent with the development in surface water temperatures. Our results suggest that Ceratium species may constitute good biological indicators of warming in the NW Mediterranean Sea. In addition| the present study showed the importance of time-series data and the value of historical literature as the basis for ecological studies of long-term trends needed to substantiate our current understanding of the impact of global change on marine biodiversity. 9530,2009,2,4,Phytoplankton productivity increased in Lake Geneva despite phosphorus loading reduction,Long-term (1972-2005) data from Lake Geneva were analyzed to assess whether primary productivity (PP) has declined over years in. response to phosphorus (P) reduction reduction implemented. In. the 1970s| and to determine which factors were responsible for the response observed. The results revealed increases in PP and chlorophyll a| and concomitant decrease in water transparency which contrasts sharply with other large lakes undergoing nutrient loading controls Our data revealed long-term increases in incident light| water temperature| water column stability (WCS)| N:P ratios and Baccilariophyceae. Nitrogen| Daphnia and WCS| rather than P| were the major factors driving PP during the first part of the study (1972-1988). When P became the main nutrient driving PP (after 1988)| the latter still increased| partly as a result of long-term increases In light and WCS| two factors not often considered when exploring climate influence on phytoplankton. Daphina abundance decreased over time| and its coupling with phytoplankton changed from positive during the period of P abundance (1972-1988) to negative during the period of P scarcity (1989-2005)| suggesting a change in the influence of Daphnia on phytoplankton and in food web structure. These data support the view that increases in cliamate-related factors may render the restoration of lakes more difficult| and showed that neglecting nitrogen| light and WCS| may hamper our understanding of lake responses to re-oligotrophication or lead to inappropriate management decisions| particularly in the context of global warming. 9773,2009,2,4,Picophytoplankton responses to changing nutrient and light regimes during a bloom,The spring bloom in seasonally stratified seas is often characterized by a rapid increase in photosynthetic biomass. To clarify how the combined effects of nutrient and light availability influence phytoplankton composition in the oligotrophic Gulf of Aqaba| Red Sea| phytoplankton growth and acclimation responses to various nutrient and light regimes were recorded in three independent bioassays and during a naturally-occurring bloom. We show that picoeukaryotes and Synechococcus maintained a "bloomer" growth strategy| which allowed them to grow quickly when nutrient and light limitation were reversed. During the bloom picoeukaryotes and Synechococcus appeared to have higher P requirements relative to N| and were responsible for the majority of photosynthetic biomass accumulation. Following stratification events| populations limited by light showed rapid photoacclimation (based on analysis of cellular fluorescence levels and photosystem II photosynthetic efficiency) and community composition shifts without substantial changes in photosynthetic biomass. The traditional interpretation of "bloom" dynamics (i.e.| as an increase in photosynthetic biomass) may therefore be confined to the upper euphotic zone where light is not limiting| while other acclimation processes are more ecologically relevant at depth. Characterizing acclimation processes and growth strategies is important if we are to clarify mechanisms that underlie productivity in oligotrophic regions| which account for approximately half of the global primary production in the ocean. This information is also important for predicting how phytoplankton may respond to global warming-induced oligotrophic ocean expansion. 9335,2009,3,4,Pilot-scale studies of domestic wastewater treatment by typical constructed wetlands and their greenhouse gas emissions,Three typical constructed wetlands (CWs) including Vertical Flow (VF)| Free Water Surface (FWS)| and Subsurface Flow (SF)| and combined VF-SF-FWS constructed wetlands were investigated for the treatment of domestic wastewater with low C/N ratio. The performance of nutrient removal and the characteristics of greenhouse gas emissions| such as CH(4) and N(2)O| from these CWs were compared. The results indicated that the four types of CWs had high removal efficiencies for organic matter and suspended solid (SS). The combined wetland also showed a comparatively good performance for nitrogen and phosphorus removal| and the removal efficiencies for total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were 81.3% and 84.5%| respectively. The combined CWs had a comparative lower global warming potential. The FWS CW had the highest tendency to emit CH(4) and led to a higher global warming potential among the four types of CWs| which was about 586 mg CO(2)/m(2).h. 10361,2009,2,4,PLANT COLONIZATION IN CONDESA NIVATION HOLLOW| SIERRA DE GUADARRAMA (SPANISH CENTRAL SYSTEM),The purpose of this study was to determine plant distribution at a nivation hollow located in a Mediterranean high mountain area and to analyse the effects of snow cover| wind exposure| proximity to moisture and the characteristics of the substrate on the vegetation. We analyse these factors and interpret concurrent effects due to recent climate change. The nivation hollow| called Ventisquero de la Condesa| is located at 2258 m a.s.l.| 40 degrees 47'10 ' N and 3 degrees 58'35 ' W| in the Sierra de Guadarrama (Madrid| Spain). We established 579 small sample plots in the study area| and grouped them into 29 transects where snow duration| wind exposure| availability of meltwater| geomorphologic instability and surface rockiness were examined directly and indirectly. The types of plants and the number of individuals per species were registered for each plot to establish ecological affinities among the 28 distinguishable species. Six showed the highest level of chionophily while nine showed the lowest adaptation to snow cover duration. A statistical study incorporating other variables applied in the research revealed that wind exposure| moisture capture and the intensity of geomorphologic dynamics have a highly significant correlation with nivation| while surface rockiness is a virtually independent factor. Due to environmental changes caused by recent global warming| several plant species| especially adapted to survival in snow conditions| coexist in the hollow with saxicolous plants that have invaded the site from adjacent grass and shrublands. 903,2009,2,4,Plant phenology: a critical controller of soil resource acquisition,Plant phenology| the timing of plant growth and development| is changing in response to global climate change. Changing temperature| soil moisture| nitrogen availability| light| and elevated CO(2) are all likely to affect plant phenology. Alteration of plant phenology by global climate change may alter the ability of plants to acquire soil resources (water and nutrients) by altering the timing and duration of the deployment of roots and leaves| which drive resource acquisition. The potential importance of phenologically-driven changes in soil resource acquisition for plant fitness and productivity have received little attention. General hypotheses are proposed for how plant acquisition of soil resources may be affected by the alteration of phenology. It is expected that the acquisition of mobile resources will be approximately proportional to total transpiration. Alteration of phenology that increases total transpiration should increase| while changes in phenology that reduce transpiration should decrease the acquisition of mobile resources. The acquisition of immobile resources will be approximately proportional to root length duration| thus changes in phenology that increase growth duration should increase the acquisition of immobile resources and vice versa. For both groups of resources| longer growing seasons would tend to increase resource acquisition| and shorter growing seasons would tend to decrease resource acquisition. In the case of resources that exhibit seasonal variability in availability| the synchrony of resource availability and acquisition capacity is important| and subject to disturbance by the alteration of phenology. 856,2009,2,4,Poaceae pollen in Galicia (NW Spain): characterisation and recent trends in atmospheric pollen season,Airborne Poaceae pollen counts are greatly influenced by weather-related parameters| but may also be governed by other factors. Poaceae pollen is responsible for most allergic reactions in the pollen-sensitive population of Galicia (Spain)| and it is therefore essential to determine the risk posed by airborne pollen counts. The global climate change recorded over recent years may prompt changes in the atmospheric pollen season (APS). This survey used airborne Poaceae pollen data recorded for four Galician cities since 1993| in order to characterise the APS and note any trends in its onset| length and severity. Pollen sampling was performed using Hirst-type volumetric traps; data were subjected to Spearman's correlation test and regression models| in order to detect possible correlations between different parameters and trends. The APS was calculated using ten different methods| in order to assess the influence of each on survey results. Finally| trends detected for the major weather-related parameters influencing pollen counts over the study period were compared with those recorded over the last 30 years. All four cities displayed a trend towards lower annual total Poaceae pollen counts| lower peak values and a smaller number of days on which counts exceeded 30| 50 and 100 pollen grains/m(3). Moreover| the survey noted a trend towards delayed onset and shorter duration of the APS| although differences were observed depending on the criteria used to define the first and the last day of the APS. 9706,2009,2,4,Poleward shifts in breeding bird distributions in New York State,Like other regions of the northern hemisphere| the northeastern United States has experienced a general increase in regional temperatures over the past 20 years. Quantifying the ecological implications of these changing temperatures has been severely constrained by a lack of multispecies distributional data by which to compare long-term changes. We used the New York State Breeding Bird Atlas| a statewide survey of 5332 25 km(2) blocks surveyed in 1980-1985 and 2000-2005| to test several predictions that the birds of New York State are responding to climate change. Our objective was to use an information-theoretic approach to analyze changes in three geographic range characteristics| the center of occurrence| range boundaries| and states of occurrence to address several predictions that the birds of New York State are moving polewards and up in elevation. As expected| we found all bird species (n=129) included in this analysis showed an average northward range shift in their mean latitude of 3.58 km [Prob(H(a vertical bar)data)=0.87)]. Past studies have found that northern range boundaries are more likely to be influenced by climatic factors than southern range boundaries. Consequently| we predicted that northward shifts would be more evident in northern as opposed to southern range boundaries. We found| however| that the southern range boundaries of northerly birds moved northward by 11.4 km [n=43| Prob(H(a vertical bar)data)=0.92]| but this pattern was less evident in northern range boundaries of southerly birds. In addition| we found that bird species demonstrated a general shift downhill in their mean elevation| but demonstrated little change in their elevational boundaries. The repeated pattern of a predicted northward shift in bird ranges in various geographic regions of the world provides compelling evidence that climate change is driving range shifts. 9689,2009,2,4,Policy on global warming: fiddling while the globe burns?,Objective: To assess the extent that the health consequences of global warming and the responses to it take due account of its impact on poverty and inequality. Method: Reviewing the relevant literature on global warming| proposed solutions and the impact. Results: To date| too little attention has been paid to the health consequences arising from the increased poverty and inequality that global warming will bring. When these are combined with issues arising from the economic melt-down| food shortages| peak oil| etc. we are heading for a global public health crisis of immeasurable magnitude. Conclusion: Solutions lie in rethinking the global economic system that we have relied upon over the past several decades and the global institutions that have led and fed off that global system-the IMF| the World Bank and so on. Implications: Public health practitioners need to look and act globally more often. They need to better recognise the links between global warming and the global financial crisis. How the latter is dealt with will determine whether the former can be resolved. It is in this global political economy arena that future action in public health lies. 9406,2009,3,3,Political| economic and environmental impacts of biofuels: A review,Current energy policies address environmental issues including environmentally friendly technologies to increase energy supplies and encourage cleaner| more efficient energy use| and address air pollution| greenhouse effect| global warming| and climate change. The biofuel policy aims to promote the use in transport of fuels made from biomass| as well as other renewable fuels. Biofuels provide the prospect of new economic opportunities for people in rural areas in oil importer and developing countries. The central policy of biofuel concerns job creation| greater efficiency in the general business environment| and protection of the environment. Projections are important tools for long-term planning and policy settings. Renewable energy sources that use indigenous resources have the potential to provide energy services with zero or almost zero emissions of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases. Biofuels are expected to reduce dependence on imported petroleum with associated political and economic vulnerability| reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants| and revitalize the economy by increasing demand and prices for agricultural products. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9739,2009,2,4,POPULATION DYNAMICS DETERMINE GENETIC ADAPTATION TO TEMPERATURE IN DAPHNIA,Rising temperatures associated with global warming present a challenge to the fate of many aquatic organisms. Although rapid evolutionary response to temperature-mediated selection may allow local persistence of populations under global warming| and therefore is a key aspect of evolutionary biology| solid proof of its occurrence is rare. In this study| we tested for genetic adaptation to an increase in temperature in the water flea Daphnia magna| a keystone species in freshwater systems| by performing a thermal selection experiment under laboratory conditions followed by the quantification of microevolutionary responses to temperature for both life-history traits as well as for intraspecific competitive strength. After three months of selection| we found a microevolutionary response to temperature in performance| but only in one of two culling regimes| highlighting the importance of population dynamics in driving microevolutionary change within populations. Furthermore| there was an evolutionary increase in thermal plasticity in performance. The results of the competition experiment were in agreement with predictions based on performance as quantified in the life table experiment and illustrate that microevolution within a short time frame has the ability to influence the outcome of intraspecific competition. 10026,2009,2,4,Population genetic structure of rock ptarmigan in the 'sky islands' of French Pyrenees: implications for conservation,Expected consequences of global warming include habitat reduction in many cool climate species. Rock ptarmigan is a Holarctic grouse that inhabits arctic and alpine tundra. In Europe| the Pyrenean ptarmigan inhabits the southern edge of the species' range and since the last glacial maximum its habitat has been severely fragmented and is restricted to high-alpine zones or 'sky islands'. A recent study of rock ptarmigan population genetic in Europe found that the Pyrenean ptarmigan had very low genetic diversity compared with that found in the Alps and Scandinavia. Habitat fragmentation and reduced genetic diversity raises concerns about the viability of ptarmigan populations in the Pyrenees. However| information on population structuring and gene flow across the Pyrenees| which is essential for designing a sound management plan| is absent. In this study| we use seven microsatellites and mitochondrial control region sequences to investigate genetic variation and differentiation among five localities across the Pyrenees. Our analyses reveal the presence of genetic differentiation among all five localities and a significant isolation-by-distance effect that is likely the result of short dispersal distances and high natal and breeding philopatry of Pyrenean ptarmigan coupled with severe habitat fragmentation. Furthermore| analysis of molecular variance| principal component analysis and Bayesian analysis of genetic structuring identified the greatest amount of differentiation between the eastern and main parts of the Pyrenean chain separated by the Segre Valley. Our data also show that the Canigou massif may host an isolated population and requires special conservation attention. We propose a management plan which includes the translocation of birds. If a sky island structure affects genetic divergence in rock ptarmigan| it may also affect the genetic structure of other sky island species having low dispersal abilities. 10157,2009,4,3,Population Is a Critical Factor for Global Carbon Dioxide Increase,Based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report at 2007| it is likely that there has been a substantial anthropogenic contribution to global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is a major anthropogenic greenhouse gas and its increase is thought to give rise to the recent global warming. Although studies suggested the impact of population growth on carbon dioxide increase| much attention has not been paid. In this study population was plotted as compared to the atmospheric CO(2) concentration. A quite linear relationship was observed between population and CO(2) concentration at both before and after 1970| after which the global temperature rapidly increased. In addition| direct and indirect human-derived CO(2) emission appeared to contribute much to the total amount of CO(2) emission in developing countries and as the economy grow fossilfuel-derived CO(2) emission increased more as compared to human-derived emission. These findings indicate that population growth especially in developing countries is a critical-factor for manipulation of global CO(2) increase. 9655,2009,5,4,Porosity of Late Paleocene Ornitholithus eggshells (Tremp Fm| south-central Pyrenees| Spain): Palaeoclimatic implications,Eggshell fragments of ratite type (Ornitholithus| oofamily Elongatoolithidae)-attributed to giant birds-are described from Upper Paleocene deposits in the Pyrenean-Provence region. We study the porosity of a rich Ornitholithus sample from Claret-4 locality (Tremp Fm| Lleida| Spain)| closely related to the global warming event which took place at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary (PETM)| in order to infer relations between egg conductance| nesting habits and palaeoenviromental conditions. An egg mass of around 3 kg is inferred for the large Ornitholithus eggs| in agreement with the values previously estimated by Touraine [Touraine| F| 1960. Oeufs d'Oiseaux de tres grande taille dans l'Eocene inferieur de Provence| pp. 783-789]| but lower than those obtained by Dughi and Sirugue (Dughi| R.| Sirugue. F.| 1962. Distribution verticale des oeufs d'oiseaux fosiles de l'Eocene de Basse-Provence. Bull. Soc. Geol. Fr. 7| 69-78]; O. arquatus group| 8.7 kg). Porosity observed in Ornitholithus eggshells is extremely reduced in comparison to bird eggs and even much more reduced in relation to theropod dinosaurs. Pore number is similar to that of bird eggs but most Ornitholithus pores are exceedingly small (micropores)| thus pore radius and total pore area is much lower than in recent birds. Moreover| Ornitholithus micropores lack connectivity between them| thus decreasing functional pore area and permeability. The function of micropores could be related to weight spare| favorable hatching and/or thermal isolation. Ornitholithus eggshells are the most compact of all bird or theropod eggshells studied so far. Consequently| calculated water vapor conductance values in Ornitholithus eggs are in average 8 times lower than that for recent birds. The relation between egg conductance and nesting environment shown in recent birds suggests| in the case of Ornitholithus| an open and extremely dry nest environment. Anomalous compact Ornitholithus eggshells could help to keep eggs' inner relatively-constant temperature and humidity| in the extremely warm and dry palaeoenvironment inferred for the Pyrenean region at the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9491,2009,2,4,Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires,The devastating "Black Saturday" bushfire inferno in the southeast Australian state of Victoria in early February 2009 and the "Ash Wednesday" bushfires in February 1983 were both preceded by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) event. Is there a systematic pIOD linkage beyond these two natural disasters? We show that out of 21 significant bushfires seasons since 1950| 11 were preceded by a pIOD. During Victoria's wet season| particularly spring| a pIOD contributes to lower rainfall and higher temperatures exacerbating the dry conditions and increasing the fuel load leading into summer. Consequently| pIODs are effective in preconditioning Victoria for bushfires| more so than El Nino events| as seen in the impact on soil moisture on interannual time scales and in multi-decadal changes since the 1950s. Given that the recent increase in pIOD occurrences is consistent with what is expected from global warming| an increased bushfire risk in the future is likely across southeast Australia. Citation: Cai| W.| T. Cowan| and M. Raupach (2009)| Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L19710| doi:10.1029/2009GL039902. 9373,2009,2,4,Post-Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Global Warming in Subarctic Canada: Implications for Islands of the James Bay Region,When Rupert's Land and the North-Western Territory became a part of Canada as the Northwest Territories in 1870| the islands of James Bay were included within the new territorial boundaries. These same islands became a part of Nunavut in 1999| when the new territory was created from the eastern region of the Northwest Territories. Although the James Bay islands remain part of Nunavut| the western James Bay Cree assert that the western James Bay islands| including Akimiski Island| were part of the Cree traditional territory and that these islands have never been surrendered through treaty. This land-claim issue is further complicated by the fact that glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is occurring in the James Bay region and that the islands of James Bay may one day become part of mainland Ontario or Quebec. We used numerical models of the GIA process to predict how shorelines in James Bay will migrate over the next 1000 years as a result of post-glacial sea-level changes. These predictions| which were augmented by an additional contribution associated with sea-level rise due to global warming| were used to determine whether the islands in James Bay will ever become part of the mainland. The predictions for the islands are sensitive to the two primary inputs into the GIA predictions| namely the models for the geometry of the ancient Laurentide ice sheet and the viscoelastic structure adopted for the solid earth| as well as to the amplitude of the projected global warming signal. Nevertheless| it was found that many of the smaller and larger islands of James Bay will likely join the mainland of either Ontario or Quebec. For example| using a global warming scenario of 1.8 mm sea-level rise per year| a plausible range of GIA models suggests that the Strutton Islands and Cape Hope Islands will join mainland Quebec in similar to 400 years or more| while Akimiski Island will take at least similar to 700 years to join mainland Ontario. Using the same GIA models| but incorporating the upper boundary of global warming scenarios of 5.9 mm sea-level rise per year| the Strutton Islands and Cape Hope Islands are predicted to join mainland Quebec in similar to 600 years or more| and Akimiski Island is predicted not to join mainland Ontario. Since Akimiski Island is already being prospected for diamonds and the future ownership of emergent land remains an issue| these findings have great economic importance. 10359,2009,3,4,POTENTIAL APPLICATION OF IONIC LIQUIDS IN ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION - ECONOMICAL AND ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT,Aluminium is one of the most popular materials in the automotive| plane| ship| food and packaging industries mainly due to its light weight and corrosion resistance. The annual production of this metal is growing by 2 % every year. The aluminium production technology applied in an industry is based on electrodeposition in cryolite in so called Hall-Heroult process. This process is considered very energy consuming and was proven to have considerably high negative environmental impact. However an alternative technology has been suggested in the literature since aluminium deposition has been successfully demonstrated with room temperature ionic liquids ( RTILs) based on imidazolium| pyridinium and quaternary ammonium cations with AlCl(3) with an efficiency reaching almost 100%. The aim of this paper is to perform a comparison of conventional Hall-Heroult process with new ionic liquid technology taking into account mainly the environmental and economical impact. As the result of our studies we came to the conclusion that ionic liquid's application in aluminium production presents a very interesting alternative for technologies applied so far in the industry. However care must be taken when introducing ionic liquids to wide-scale use as their environmental impact is not fully acknowledged. In the process of industrial utilization of chemical substances a risk of unintentional release is always present and should be taken into account. Therefore| prior to the implementation of this new technology a full risk assessment| including potential adverse effects determination and estimation of mobility in all possible environmental compartments| is required. 10148,2009,3,4,Potential application of solar thermal systems for hot water production in Hong Kong,This paper presents the evaluation results of conventional solar water heater (SWH) systems and solar assisted heat pump (SAHP) systems for hot water production in Hong Kong. An economic comparison and global warming impact analysis are conducted among the two kinds of solar thermal systems and traditional water heating systems (i.e| electric water heaters and towngas water heaters). The economic comparison results show that solar thermal systems have greater economic benefits than traditional water heating systems. In addition| conventional SWH systems are comparable with the SAHP systems when solar fractions are above 50%. Besides| analysis on the sensitivity of the total equivalent warming impact (TEWI) indicates that the towngas boosted SWH system has the greatest potential in greenhouse gas emission reduction with various solar collector areas and the electricity boosted SWH system has the comparative TEWI with the SAHP systems if its solar fraction is above 50%. As for SAHP systems| the solar assisted air source heat pump (SA-ASHP) system has the least global warming impact. Based on all investigation results| suggestions are given on the selection of solar thermal systems for applications in Hong Kong. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9939,2009,2,7,Potential Dependence of Global Warming on the Residence Time (RT) in the Atmosphere of Anthropogenically Sourced Carbon Dioxide,The driver for this study is the wide-ranging published values of the CO(2) atmospheric residence time (RT)| tau| with the values differing by more than an order of magnitude| where the significance of the difference relates to decisions on whether (1) to attempt control of combustion-sourced (anthropogenic) CO(2) emissions| if tau > 100 years| or (2) not to attempt control| if tau similar to 10 years. This given difference is particularly evident in the IPCC First 1990 Climate Change Report where| in the opening policymakers summary of the report| the RT is stated to be in the range of 50-200 years| and (largely) on the basis of that| it was also concluded in the report and from subsequent related studies that the current rising level Of CO(2) was due to combustion of fossil fuels| thus carrying the| now widely accepted| rider that CO(2) emissions from combustion should therefore be curbed. However| the actual data in the text of the IPCC report separately states a value of 4 years. The differential of these two times is then clearly identified in the relevant supporting documents of the report as being| separately (1) a long-term (similar to 100 years) adjustment or response time to accommodate imbalance increases in CO(2) emissions from all sources and (2) the actual RT in the atmosphere of similar to 4 years. As a check on that differentiation and its alternative outcome| the definition and determination of RT thus defined the need for and focus of this study. In this study| using the combustion/chemical-engineering perfectly stirred reactor (PSR) mixing structure or OD box for the model basis| as an alternative to the more commonly used global circulation models (GCMs)| to define and determine the RT in the atmosphere and then using data from the IPCC and other sources for model validation and numerical determination| the data (1) support the validity of the PSR model application in this context and| (2) from the analysis| provide (quasi-equilibrium) RTs for CO(2) of similar to 5 years carrying C12 and similar to 16 years carrying C14| with both values essentially in agreement with the FPCC short-term (4 year) value and| separately| in agreement with most other data sources| notably| a 1998 listing by Segalstad of 36 other published values| also in the range of 5-15 years. Additionally| the analytical results also then support the IPCC analysis and data on the longer "adjustment time" (similar to 100 years) governing the long-term rising "quasi-equilibrium" concentration Of CO(2) in the atmosphere. For principal verification of the adopted PSR model| the data source used was the outcome of the injection of excess (14)CO(2) into the atmosphere during the A-bomb tests in the 1950s/1960s| which generated an initial increase of approximately 1000% above the normal value and which then declined substantially exponentially with time| with tau = 16 years| in accordance with the (unsteady-state) prediction from and jointly providing validation for the PSR analysis. With the short (5-15 year) RT results shown to be in quasi-equilibrium| this then supports the (independently based) conclusion that the long-term (similar to 100 year) rising atmospheric CO(2) concentration is not from anthropogenic sources but| in accordance with conclusions from other studies| is most likely the outcome of the rising atmospheric temperature| which is due to other natural factors. This further supports the conclusion that global warming is not anthropogenically driven as an outcome of combustion. The eonomic and political significance of that conclusion will be self-evident.
970,2009,2,4,Potential Effects of Mercury on Threatened California Black Rails,San Francisco Bay (SFB) estuary sediments contain high levels of mercury (Hg)| and tidal marsh resident species may be vulnerable to Hg contamination. We examined Hg concentrations in California black rails| a threatened waterbird species that inhabits SFB tidal salt marshes. We captured 127 black rails during the prebreeding and postbreeding seasons and examined the influence of site| sex| and year on Hg| methylmercury (MeHg)| and also selenium (Se) concentrations in feathers and blood. Feather Hg concentrations averaged 6.94 mu g/g dry weight (dw) and MeHg and Se concentrations in blood averaged 0.38 and 0.42 mu g/g wet weight (ww). We used Akaike's information criterion model selection process to evaluate the importance of year| site| sex| and age on patterns of MeHg concentrations; sex and year were the most important of these factors. Feather Hg concentrations (dw) were higher in males (8.22 mu g/g) than females (6.63 mu g/g) and higher in adult birds (7.36 mu g/g) than in hatch-year birds (4.61 mu g/g). A substantial portion of SFB black rail populations may be at risk of reproductive effects due to MeHg contamination| as 32-78% of feathers and < 10% of blood samples exceeded no observed adverse effect levels. Sea level rise and other anthropogenic threats to endemic tidal marsh species such as black rails may be exacerbated by the presence of MeHg. Further study of population demographics and toxicological effects would further elucidate the effects of MeHg contamination on black rail populations in SFB. 10262,2009,3,4,POTENTIAL EMISSIONS OF KYOTO AND NON-KYOTO CLIMATE ACTIVE COMPOUNDS IN THE PRODUCTION OF SUGARCANE ETHANOL,Sugarcane ethanol is the most commercially developed liquid biofuel. The potential emissions of Kyoto and non-Kyoto Protocol climate active compounds in the production of sugarcane ethanol in agricultural lands are evaluated herein. Various scenarios are considered| such as low or high N(2)O emission from N-fertilizers| inclusion or not of pre-harvest burning| uncontrolled or controlled emissions in bagasse based boilers| and 20 or 100 years time horizons in GWPs. The CO(2) emitted in ethanol fuel combustion is recycled during sugarcane "re-growing" and does not count as greenhouse gas. However| even though many uncertainties remain| the available information allows estimating that CO(2)-eq emissions are very large when ethanol production is based on pre-harvest burning and there is non-controlled particle emission in boilers. In these scenarios| compared with the combustion of equivalent amounts of gasoline| higher CO(2)-eq emission would take place. Halting sugarcane field burning would not be sufficient to revert the situation| especially in a 20-years time horizon. Only when more environmental friendly procedures are applied| a significant saving Of CO(2)-eq emissions occurs at 20 and 100-years horizon scenarios. In all scenarios| non-Kyoto Protocol compounds make an important net contribution. Therefore| if a real evaluation of climate active compounds emissions is to be reached| it would be crucial to include these compounds in life cycles studies. To reduce uncertainties| especially of non-Kyoto compounds| additional research is needed. 9849,2009,3,2,Potential environmental issues of CO(2) storage in deep saline aquifers: Geochemical results from the Frio-I Brine Pilot test| Texas| USA,Sedimentary basins in general| and deep saline aquifers in particular| are being investigated as possible repositories for large volumes of anthropogenic CO(2) that must be sequestered to mitigate global warming and related climate changes. To investigate the potential for the long-term storage of CO(2) in such aquifers| 1600 t of CO(2) were injected at 1500 m depth into a 24-m-thick "C" sandstone unit of the Frio Formation| a regional aquifer in the US Gulf Coast. Fluid samples obtained before CO(2) injection from the injection well and an observation well 30 m updip showed a Na-Ca-Cl type brine with similar to 93|000 mg/L TDS at saturation with CH(4) at reservoir conditions; gas analyses showed that CH(4) comprised similar to 95% of dissolved gas| but CO(2) was low at 0.3%. Following CO2 breakthrough. 51 h after injection| samples showed sharp drops in pH (6.5-5.7)| pronounced increases in alkalinity (100-3000 mg/L as HCO(3)) and in Fe (30-1100 mg/L)| a slug of very high DOC values| and significant shifts in the isotopic compositions of H(2)O. DIC| and CH(4). These data| coupled with geochemical modeling| indicate corrosion of pipe and well casing as well as rapid dissolution of minerals| especially calcite and iron oxyhydroxides| both caused by lowered pH (initially similar to 3.0 at subsurface conditions) of the brine in contact with supercritical CO(2). These geochemical parameters| together with perfluorocarbon tracer gases (PFTs)| were used to monitor migration of the injected CO(2) into the overlying Frio "B"| composed of a 4-m-thick sandstone and separated from the "C" by similar to 15 m of shale and siltstone beds. Results obtained from the Frio "B" 6 months after injection gave chemical and isotopic markers that show significant CO(2) (2.9% compared with 0.3% CO(2) in dissolved gas) migration into the "B" sandstone. Results of samples collected 15 months after injection| however| are ambiguous| and can be interpreted to show no additional injected Cot in the "B" sandstone. The presence of injected CO(2) may indicate migration from "C" to "B" through the intervening beds or| more likely| a short-term leakage through the remedial cement around the casing of a 50-year old well. Results obtained to date from four shallow monitoring groundwater wells show no brine or CO2 leakage through the Anahuac Formation| the regional cap rock. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 10242,2009,3,4,Potential food production from forage legume-based-systems in Europe: an overview,Intensification of EU livestock farming systems has been accompanied by the development of maize silage and intensively fertilised grasses at the expense of forage legume crops. However in the new context of agriculture| the development of forage legumes constitutes one of the pillars for future livestock farming systems with high environmental and economical performances. Yield benefits of grass-clover mixtures are equivalent fertiliser N inputs of 150 to 350 kg/ha| and productive grass-clover mixtures can fix 100 to 380 kg N per hectare symbiotically from the atmosphere. Animal intake of legumes is high and the rate of decline of legume nutritional quality with advancing maturity is less than for grasses| especially in the case of white clover| which makes mixed pastures easier to manage. Animal performances at grazing are identical or higher on clover-enriched pastures. Due to their high protein concentration| conserved forage legumes fit well with maize silage. Forage legumes increase the concentration of beneficial a-linolenic acid in ruminant products. Environmental balance of forage legumes is positive. Increasing the proportion of white clover at the expense of mineral N fertilisation can reduce the risk of nitrate leaching. Because forage legumes only require solar energy to fix N from the air| they also reduce energy consumption and associated impacts. They contribute to reduce the global warming potential of livestock systems by reducing emission of enteric methane and nitrous oxide from pasture and crop production. As an element of arable crop rotations| grass-clover leys suppress pests| diseases and weeds| improve soil structure and prevent soil erosion and nitrate leaching. Nevertheless| forage legumes have some limitations: expensive to harvest| difficulties of conservation| management of the associations. To take full advantage of forage legumes in the future| new research and development are required as well as financial support from the EU.
9480,2009,2,4,Potential for decadal predictability in the North Pacific region,A Predictable Component Analysis (PrCA) has been applied to near-term forecasts of ocean-atmosphere natural variability within a global warming scenario. The most predictable pattern in the North Pacific region on decadal time scales for the period 1965-1999 is a clockwise movement of heat content anomalies| which is composed of the eastward propagation along the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension (hereafter KOE) region and the subsequent southwestward propagation along the subduction pathway through the subtropical region. Our results also suggest the important role played by the westward traveling Rossby wave north of the KOE region in determining the phase change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) during this period. A comparative study with different initial conditions demonstrates the importance of proper thermal constraints on the ocean subsurface| in conjunction with the Rossby wave dynamics| for the initiation of predictable patterns in the heat content anomaly. Citation: Sugiura| N.| T. Awaji| S. Masuda| T. Toyoda| H. Igarashi| Y. Ishikawa| M. Ishii| and M. Kimoto (2009)| Potential for decadal predictability in the North Pacific region| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L20701| doi:10.1029/2009GL039787. 775,2009,3,3,Potential for soil carbon sequestration of eroded areas in subtropical China,Soil plays an important role in the global carbon cycle| and carbon sequestration in soil is important for mitigating global climate change. Historically| soil erosion led to great reductions of soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in China. Fortunately| with the economic development and remarkably effective soil erosion control measures in subtropical China over the past 20 years| soil erosion has been greatly decreased. As a result| soil organic carbon sequestration has gradually increased due to the rapid recovery of vegetation in the area. However| little information exists concerning the potential of soil carbon sequestration in the area. This paper introduces a case study in Xingguo County| Jiangxi Province| China| which used to be a typical area with significant soil loss in subtropical China. This work represents a systematic investigation of the interrelations of carbon sequestration potential with soil erosion types| altitudes| soil types and soil parent materials. In this study| 284 soil samples were collected from 151 sampling sites (51 are soil profile sites) to determine soil physicochemical properties including organic carbon content. Soil organic carbon distribution maps of the surface layer (0-20 cm) and whole profile (0-100 cm) were compiled by linking soil types to the polygons of digital soil maps using GIS. Assuming that SOC was lost following the destruction of native vegetation| these lands hold great promise for potentially sequestering carbon again. The potential of soil carbon sequestration in the study area was estimated by subtracting the organic carbon status in eroded soils from that in non-eroded soils under undisturbed forest. Results show that the potential of SOC in the surface layer is 4.47 Tg C while that in the whole profile is 12.3 Tg C for the entire county. The greatest potential for carbon sequestration (3.72 Tg C) is found in severely eroded soil| while non-eroded soil has the smallest potential. Also| soil carbon sequestration potential decreases with increasing altitude. Soils at altitudes of <300 m show the greatest potential (5.01 Tg C)| while those of >800 m have the smallest potential (0.25 Tg C). Among various soil types| red earths (Humic Acrisols) have the greatest potential of carbon sequestration (5.32 Tg C)| and yellow earths (Ferralic Cambisols) have the smallest (0.15 Tg C). As for soils derived from various parent materials| soils derived from phyllite possess the greatest carbon sequestration potential| and soils from Quaternary red clays have the smallest. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9987,2009,2,4,Potential impact of climate change on carbon in agricultural soils in Canada 2000-2099,Under the threat of global warming it is important to determine the impact that future changes in climate may have on the environment and to what extent any adverse effects can be mitigated. In this study we assessed the impact that climate change scenarios may have on soil carbon stocks in Canada and examined the potential for agricultural management practices to improve or maintain soil quality. Historical weather data from 1951 to 2001 indicated that semi-arid soils in western Canada have become warmer and dryer and air temperatures have increased during the spring and winter months. Results from the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM1|2) under two climate change forcing scenarios also indicated that future temperatures would increase more in the spring and winter. Precipitation increased significantly under the IPCC IS92a scenario and agreed with historical trends in eastern Canada whereas the IPCC SRES B2 scenario indicated very little change in precipitation and better matched historical trends in western Canada. The Century model was used to examine the influence of climate change on agricultural soil carbon (C) stocks in Canada. Relative to simulations using historical weather data| model results under the SRES B2 climate scenario indicated that agricultural soils would lose 160 Tg of carbon by 2099 and under the IS92a scenario would lose 53 Tg C. Carbon was still lost from soils in humid climatic regions even though C inputs from crops increased by 10-13%. Carbon factors associated with changes in management practices were also estimated under both climate change scenarios. There was little difference in factors associated with conversion from conventional to no-till agriculture| while carbon factors associated with the conversion of annual crops to perennial grass were lower than for historical data in semi-arid soils because water stress hampered crop production but were higher in humid soils. 9477,2009,2,3,Potential impact of global warming on North Pacific spring blooms projected by an eddy-permitting 3-D ocean ecosystem model,Using an eddy-permitting ecosystem model with a projected physical environment from a high-resolution climate model| we explored the potential impact of global warming on spring blooms in the western North Pacific. We focused on statistically significant signals compared with natural variability. Considering 2xCO(2) conditions| maximum biomass during the spring bloom is found to occur 10 to 20 days earlier due to strengthened stratification| and in the subarctic region| the bloom to decrease in magnitude relative to pre-industrial simulation. However| in the northern part of the Kuroshio extension region where photosynthesis is not strongly limited by nutrients| the maximum biomass increases by 20 to 40% associated with rising temperatures| even though the annually averaged biomass slightly decreases. Our results reveal that even if global warming weakly affects annually averaged quantities| it could strongly affect certain species and biogeochemical processes which depend on seasonal events such as blooms. Citation: Hashioka| T.| T. T. Sakamoto| and Y. Yamanaka (2009)| Potential impact of global warming on North Pacific spring blooms projected by an eddy-permitting 3-D ocean ecosystem model| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L20604| doi: 10.1029/2009GL038912. 9742,2009,4,4,Potential impacts of global warming on extreme warm month events in China,In this study the average monthly data anomalies of 1960 - 2007 for 740 stations in China were analyzed. This research uses EVT (extreme value theory) to explore the spatial EWME (extreme warm month events) properties in China. The effects of potentially explanatory factors - climate warming on the distribution of EWME are investigated using GPD model with parameters estimated via a spatial scheme. The results showed that: 1) The properties of EWME have strong spatial dependence. The EWME have smaller variability over Tibetan plateau and North China plain and the coastal area of South China| while the EWME have larger variability over North China. There are more EWME with higher quantile over Middle-lower Yangtze area than that over the other regions. 2) The stations have the return period of the 2002 EWME with 3 - 5 centigrade longer than 10 years| and some grids have the return period longer than 50 years for EWME with 5 - 7 centigrade. 3) It has a potential relationship between regional climate warming and the EWME over some of special region. The variability and high quantile of the EWME are affected obviously by climate warming over Tibetan plateau plain and North China plain and northeast China plain| namely over the regions between monsoons on and non-monsoons. 1023,2009,2,4,Precipitation timing and magnitude differentially affect aboveground annual net primary productivity in three perennial species in a Chihuahuan Desert grassland,Plant productivity in deserts may be more directly responsive to soil water availability than to precipitation. However| measurement of soil moisture alone may not be enough to elucidate plant responses to precipitation pulses| as edaphic factors may influence productivity when soil moisture is adequate. The first objective of the study was to determine the responses of the aboveground annual net primary productivity (ANPP) of three perennial species (from different functional groups) in a Chihuahuan Desert grassland to variation in natural precipitation (annual and seasonal) and a 25% increase in seasonal precipitation (supplemental watering in summer and winter). Secondly| ANPP responses to other key environmental and soil parameters were explored during dry| average| and wet years over a 5-yr period. ANPP predictors for each species were dynamic. High ANPP in Dasylirion leiophyllum was positively associated with higher soil NH(4)-N and frequent larger precipitation events| while that in Bouteloua curtipendula was positively correlated with frequent small summer precipitation events with short inter-pulse periods and supplemental winter water. Opuntia phaeacantha was responsive to small precipitation events with short inter-pulse periods. Although several studies have shown ANPP increases with increases in precipitation and soil moisture in desert systems| this was not observed here as a universal predictor of ANPP| particularly in dry years. 751,2009,2,4,Predicted population trends for Cozumel Curassows (Crax rubra griscomi): empirical evidence and predictive models in the face of climate change,We assessed the current conservation status and population trends of Cozumel Curassows (Crax rubra griscomi)| a critically endangered and endemic cracid of Cozumel Island| Mexico. Distance sampling was used to estimate the population size in 2005 and compare it with a previous estimate in 1995. Population viability analysis (PVA) was used to model population trends| considering ecological and environmental conditions prevailing in 1995 and 2005. Additional PVA models were constructed using different hypothetical scenarios to assess the effects of particular factors and management strategies on population trends. We estimated a population size of 372 +/- 155 curassows in the island's tropical semideciduous forest| before two hurricanes hit Cozumel Island in 2005. PVA modeling predicted a steep decline in population size in the ensuing decades as a result of an increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes related to global climate change| and an observed female bias in the sex ratio likely caused by a higher mortality rate for adult males. We recommend urgent management actions for the long-term conservation of Cozumel Curassows| including a ban on hunting| eradication of the feral fauna| particularly dogs| and implementation of a captive-breeding program to supplement the wild population. 1033,2009,2,4,PREDICTION AND EFFECTS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE SOIL WATER STRESS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA,Although we have not yet the scientific founded statement about global climate change| some institutions of the today world are offering the models for prediction of these changes. Global climatic model has been run prediction on monthly basis for the southern Mediterranean part of the Country (Popovo Polje) the percentage decrease of precipitation (25%) and air temperatures increase (2 degrees C) with respect to mean monthly values for the last fouty years. In our paper we would like just to test how this change could exert influence on the future soil water stress. 10027,2009,2,2,Preparing for Climate Change: A Perspective from Local Public Health Officers in California,BACKGROUND: The most recent scientific findings show that even with significant emission reductions| some amount of climate change is likely inevitable. The magnitude of the climate changes will depend on future emissions and climate sensitivity. These changes will have local impacts| and a Significant share of coping with these changes will fall on local governmental agencies. Public health is no exception| because local public health agencies are crucial providers of disease prevention| health care| and emergency preparedness services. METHODS: This article presents the results of a survey of California's local pubic health officers conducted between August and October 2007. The survey gauged health officers' concerns about the public health impacts of climate change| programs in place that could help to mitigate these health effects| and information and resource needs for better coping with a changing climate. RESULTS: The results of this survey show that most public health officers feet that climate change poses a serious threat to public health but that they do not feel well equipped in terms of either resources or information to cope with that threat. Nonetheless| public health agencies currently implement a number of programs that will help these agencies handle some of the challenges posed by a changing climate. CONCLUSIONS: Overall| the results suggest that local public health agencies in California are likely in a better position than they perceive to address the threats associated with climate change but that there is a larger role for them to play in climate policy. 10267,2009,2,2,Present-day climatology and projected changes of warm and cold days in the CNRM-CM3 global climate model,The impact of global warming on the warmest and coldest days of the annual cycle is explored according to an A2 scenario simulated by the CNRM-CM3 climate model in the framework of the IPCC AR4 intercomparison. Given the multi-model spread in IPCC projections| a validation strategy is proposed using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Validation of the late twentieth century model climatology shows that warm and cold model events are slightly too long and infrequent. Although interannual trends in the warm (cold) day occurrence were positive (negative) only for six (three) of the nine considered sub-continental regions| simulated model trends are always positive (negative). This different behaviour suggests that simulated non-anthropogenic decadal variability is small relative to anthropogenic trends. Large-scale synoptic processes associated with European regional warm and cold peaks are also described and validated. Regional cold peaks are better reproduced than warm peaks| whose intensity accuracy is limited by other physical variables. Positive (negative) winter anomalies of sea and land surface temperature lead to summers with severe (weak) temperatures. These inter-annual anomalies are generated by a persistent pressure dipole over Europe. Regarding climate change| warm (cold) events will become more (less) frequent and longer (shorter). The number of warm days will largely rise and the number of cold days will dramatically decrease. The intensity of warm days will be particularly pronounced over Europe| given the projected summer drying in this region. However| according to the limited skill of the CNRM model| these results must be considered with caution. 747,2009,2,4,Prevention| Adaptation| and Threat Denial: Flooding Experiences in the Netherlands,Delta areas such as the Netherlands are more and more at risk of future flooding due to global climate change. Motivating residents living in flood-prone areas to effectively cope with local floods may lead to minimization of material losses and loss of life. The aim of this research was to investigate whether the extent to which residents had been exposed to flooding in the past was a key factor in motivating residents to effectively cope with future flooding. We also focused on the psychological variables that mediated this relationship. We conducted a survey (N = 516) among flood victims and nonvictims. We assessed subjective experiences due to past flooding| affective and cognitive appraisals| and coping responses. Results show that victims reported stronger emotions (negative and positive)| and the receipt of more social support due to past flooding than did nonvictims. Moreover| victims worry more about future flooding| perceive themselves as more vulnerable to future flooding| perceive the consequences of future flooding as more severe| and have stronger intentions to take adaptive actions in the future than nonvictims. Structural equation modeling reveals that the latter effect was fully mediated by specific experiences and appraisals. Insights into factors and processes that have the potential to motivate residents to effectively cope with future floods may prove helpful in developing interventions to inform residents how to act effectively in case of an imminent flood. 9290,2009,5,4,Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage,With polar temperatures| similar to 3-5 degrees C warmer than today| the last interglacial stage (similar to 125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1-2 degrees C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today| but because local sea levels differ from global sea level| accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level| local sea levels| ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (>=-10 m)| the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr(-1) but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr(-1). Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming. 10198,2009,3,3,Problems with geoengineering schemes to combat climate change,The accelerated rate of increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration in recent years has revived the idea of stabilizing the global climate through geoengineering schemes. Majority of the proposed geoengineering schemes will attempt to reduce the amount of solar radiation absorbed by our planet. Climate modelling studies of these so called 'sunshade geoengineering schemes' show that global warming from increasing concentrations of CO(2) can be mitigated by intentionally manipulating the amount of sunlight absorbed by the climate system. These studies also suggest that the residual changes could be large on regional scales| so that climate change may not be mitigated on a local basis. More recent modelling studies have shown that these schemes could lead to a slow-down in the global hydrological cycle. Other problems such as changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle and ocean acidification remain unsolved by sunshade geoengineering schemes. In this article| I review the proposed geoengineering schemes| results from climate models and discuss why geoengineering is not the best option to deal with climate change. 828,2009,5,4,Productivity cycles in Lake Hovsgol| NW Mongolia| during the last 1 Ma and the age model of the HDP-04 drill core record,Repetitive patterns in the records of total organic carbon (TOC)| total nitrogen (TN) and delta(13)C(org) observed in the Lake Hovsgol sediment section from HDP-04 drill core reflect past changes in productivity of Lake Hovsgol and in the isotopic composition of the lake's carbon pool. Lake Hovsgol productivity proxy signals are interpreted to represent the response of the Hovsgol lacustrine system to glacial-interglacial cycles of the Pleistocene. This interpretation is supported by the apparent orbitally-forced pattern in the TOC| TN and delta(13)C(org) records of the past 250 ka in the BDP-96-2 drill core from neighboring Lake Baikal. The intervals with independent age control| such as the radiocarbon-dated last glacial-interglacial transition and the paleomagnetic reversals| make it evident that productivity proxy signals are reliable indicators of past cold-to-warm and warm-to-cold climate transitions| as seen from the agreement with the pattern of global climate change in marine delta(18)O records. The Brunhes/Matuyama reversal during the MIS 19 interglacial coincides with a distinct peak of TOC and TN in the Hovsgol record| similar to the signal during the Holocene interglacial. By contrast| the upper Jaramillo reversal in the Lake Hovsgol record occurs in a diatom-free calcareous interval characterized by minima in TOC| TN and by a 'glacial'-type range of delta(13)C(org) values. In both Lake Baikal and Lake Hovsgol records| peaks in TOC and TN contents help distinguishing past interglacials and interstadials| and isotopically-heaviest delta(13)C(org) values help identify past glacial intervals. An age model for the HDP-04 drill core section is proposed based on recognizing the repetitive patterns in Lake Hovsgol productivity and lithologic records as regional paleoclimate cycles of middle to late Pleistocene. Absolute dates and diatom biostratigraphic correlation ties to the Lake Baikal record are used as key controls. In the proposed age model| the interval 81-24 m in the HDP-04 sediment section below the major unconformity is correlated to MIS 27 through late MIS 13| whereas the upper 24 m of the HDP-04 section is suggested to have recovered the sedimentary record of late MIS 7 to MIS 1. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 10376,2009,3,2,PROGNOSES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE GLOBAL WARMING,Global warming is a reality commonly accepted by most scientists. Nevertheless| there are people who deny such problem exists and most of them are political leaders. The global warming we are facing nowadays is the first in history caused by the intervention of the anthropic factor which will either act in order to slow down this phenomenon| or shall have to withdraw from the forces he himself has "created". 9914,2009,3,3,PROGRESS IN NUCLEAR FUEL TECHNOLOGY IN KOREA,During the last four decades| 16 Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) and 4 Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR) have been constructed and operated in Korea| and nuclear fuel technology has been developed to a self-reliant state. At first| the PWR fuel design and manufacturing technology was acquired through international cooperation with a foreign partner. Then| the PWR fuel R&D by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has improved fuel technology to a self-reliant state in terms of fuel elements| which includes a new cladding material| a large-grained UO(2) pellet| a high performance spacer grid| a fuel rod performance code| and fuel assembly test facility. The MOX fuel performance analysis code was developed and validated using the in-reactor test data. MOX fuel test rods were fabricated and their irradiation test was completed by an international program. At the same time| the PWR fuel development by Korea Nuclear Fuel (KNF) has produced new fuel assemblies such as PLUS7 and ACET During this process| the design and test technology of fuel assemblies was developed to a self-reliant state. The PHWR fuel manufacturing technology was developed and manufacturing facility was Set up by KAERI| independently from the foreign technology. Then| the advanced PHWR fuel| CANFLEX(CANDU Flexible Fuelling)| was developed| and an irradiation test was completed in a PHWR. The development of the CANFLEX fuel included a new design of fuel rods and bundles.. The nuclear fuel technology in Korea has been steadily developed in many national R&D programs| and this advanced fuel technology is expected to contribute to a worldwide nuclear renaissance that can create solutions to global warming. 9762,2009,2,3,Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Africa under Global Warming. Part I: Southern Africa,This study investigates likely changes in mean and extreme precipitation over southern Africa in response to changes in radiative forcing using an ensemble of global climate models prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Extreme seasonal precipitation is defined in terms of 10-yr return levels obtained by inverting a generalized Pareto distribution fitted to excesses above a predefined high threshold. Both present (control) and future climate precipitation extremes are estimated. The future-to-control climate ratio of 10-yr return levels is then used as an indicator for the likely changes in extreme seasonal precipitation. A Bayesian approach to multimodel ensembling is adopted. The relative weights assigned to each of the model simulations is determined from bias| convergence| and correlation. Using this method| the probable limits of the changes in mean and extreme precipitation are estimated from their posterior distribution. Over the western parts of southern Africa| an increase in the severity of dry extremes parallels a statistically significant decrease in mean precipitation during austral summer months. A notable delay in the onset of the rainy season is found in almost the entire region. An early cessation is found in many parts. This implies a statistically significant shortening of the rainy season. A substantial reduction in moisture influx from the southwestern Indian Ocean during austral spring is projected. This and the preaustral spring moisture deficits are possible mechanisms delaying the rainfall onset in southern Africa. A possible offshore (northeasterly) shift of the tropical-temperate cloud band is consistent with more severe droughts in the southwest of southern Africa and enhanced precipitation farther north in Zambia| Malawi| and northern Mozambique. This study shows that changes in the mean vary on relatively small spatial scales in southern Africa and differ between seasons. Changes in extremes often| but not always| parallel changes in the mean precipitation. 10367,2009,4,3,Projection of temperature over Korea using an MM5 regional climate simulation,The present study dealt with the projection of future temperatures over Korea| using MM5 dynamic-downscaling simulation| for the period 1971-2100. MM5 simulations were based on the IPCC's (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B scenario| which has been described in detail in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Regional climate projection showed that the annual mean value of daily mean temperatures will increase by 3.8 degrees C between now and the 2071-2100 period. Comparing minimum and maximum temperatures| the change in minimum temperatures is expected to be larger (4.0 degrees C) than that in maximum temperatures (3.5 degrees C). Seasonally| the increase is projected to be greater in winter than in summer. Inter-annual variability is also projected to be higher in winter than in summer. In the troposphere| a rise in temperature shows a tendency to be greater with height; thus| increases are projected to reach a peak value of +4.5 degrees C at 400 hPa. Frequency distributions of daily mean temperatures| showing an increase in the mean value without a change in variance| will reflect a change in temperature extremes. Hot events| based on the 95th percentile of the daily maximum temperatures| are expected to be intensified by 2.3 degrees C and to be 5 times more frequent in the 2071-2100 period than in the 1971-2000 period| Cold events| based on the 5th percentile of daily minimum temperatures| are predicted to become warmer by 5.3 degrees C| and the number of days involved will be reduced by 99%. The rise in temperature is projected to be associated with an increase in relative humidity of 2% and specific humidity of 29% near the surface over Korea by the end of the 21st century. The projections show consistency between temperature and humidity changes| at a rate of about 7% K(-1) of the Moisture holding capacity. 10003,2009,3,3,Proper accounting for time increases crop-based biofuels' greenhouse gas deficit versus petroleum,The global warming intensities of crop-based biofuels and fossil fuels differ not only in amount but also in their discharge patterns over time. Early discharges| for example| from market-mediated land use change| will have created more global warming by any time in the future than later discharges| owing to the slow decay of atmospheric CO(2). A spreadsheet model of this process| BTIME| captures this important time pattern effect using the Bern CO(2) decay model to allow fuels to be compared for policy decisions on the basis of their real warming effects with a variety of user-supplied parameter values. The model also allows economic discounting of climate effects extended far into the future. Compared to approaches that simply sum greenhouse gas emissions over time| recognizing the physics of atmospheric CO(2) decay significantly increases the deficit relative to fossil fuel of any biofuel causing land use change. 10015,2009,4,4,Proposed Conceptual Taxonomy for Proper Identification and Classification of Tornado Events,A practical approach is recommended for identifying and archiving tornado events| based on the use of definitions that label all vortices as either type I| II| or III tornadoes. This methodology will provide a more meaningful tornado climatology in Storm Data| which separates and classifies all vortices associated in any manner with cumuliform clouds. Tornadoes produced within the mesocyclone of discrete supercell storms| with strong local updrafts (SLUs)| will be classified as type I tornadoes. Frequently| these type I tornadoes result from the interaction of the SLU with strong rear-flank downdrafts (RFDs)| or with shear vortices in the PBL. Tornadoes produced in association with quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS) will be classified as type II tornadoes (including cold pool| rear-inflow jets| bookend| and mesovortex events along the line). All other vortex types (including landspouts| waterspouts| gustnadoes| cold air vortices| and tornadoes not associated with mesocyclones or QLCS) will be labeled as type III tornadoes. A general discussion is provided that further clarifies the differences and categorization of these three classifications (which encompass 15 tornado species)| along with a recommendation that NOAA adopt this taxonomy in operational and data archiving practices. Radar analysis and field observations| combined with storm-scale meteorological expertise| should allow for the official "typing'' of tornado reports by NOAA personnel. Establishment of such a climatological database in Storm Data may be of value in assessing the effects (if any) of twenty-first-century global warming on U.S. tornado trends. 767,2009,2,4,Proximate control and adaptive potential of protandrous migration in birds,Migration determines where| when| and in which order males and females converge for reproduction. Protandry| the earlier arrival of males relative to females at the site of reproduction| is a widespread phenomenon found in many migratory organisms. Detailed knowledge of the determinants of protandry is becoming increasingly important for predicting how migratory species and populations will respond to rapid phenological shifts caused by climatic change. Here| we review and discuss the potential mechanisms underlying protandrous migration in birds| focusing oil evidence from passerine species. Latitudinal segregation during the non-breeding period and differences in the initiation of spring migration are probably the key determinants of protandrous arrival at the breeding sites| while sexual differences in speed of migration appear to play a minor role. Experimental evidence suggests that differences between the sexes in the onset of spring migratory activity are caused by differences in circannual rhythmicity or by photoperiodic responsiveness. Both of these mechanisms are hardwired and could prevent individuals from responding plastically to chronic changes in temperature at the breeding grounds. As a consequence| adaptive changes in both the timing of arrival in spring and of reproduction will require evolutionary (genetic) changes of the cue-response systems underlying the initiation and extent of migration in both males and females. 10268,2009,2,4,Pulse of climate change in Indian Sundarbans: A myth or reality?,Climate change is being experienced intensely in the mangrove dominated deltaic complex of Indian Sundarbans. Deglaciation of Gangotri glacier in the Himalayan range and several anthropogenic influences has accelerated the phenomenon since last two decades. Four indicators (surface water temperature| salinity| dissolved oxygen| and transparency) considered in the present study exhibited significant correlations with global warming and caused considerable alteration of hydrological parameters over a period of 27 years. Owing to varied geographical features in the western and eastern sectors of the deltaic complex| the foot prints of climate change were perceived in different pattern and scale. The surface water temperature showed increasing trend in both sectors (6.14% and 6.12% rise in western and eastern sectors respectively). The transparency reduced by 25% in both western and eastern sectors. This may be the effect of increased erosion| anthropogenic activities and silt contribution by the River Ganges. The salinity and dissolved oxygen exhibited contradictory trends in the western and eastern sectors| which may be attributed to deglaciation process in the Himalayan range. The blockage of the major rivers in the eastern Indian Sundarbans by heavy silt and solid wastes from the adjacent city of Kolkata posed serious problems to the island dwellers by way of increasing salinity and decreased dissolved oxygen. Documentation of stenohaline phytoplankton species in upstream regions of eastern Indian Sundarbans (secondary source) confirmed the intrusion of sea water from Bay of Bengal. Such intrusion has serious adverse effect on the livelihood of the local people. 10234,2009,3,3,Pure and Binary Adsorption of Methane and Nitrogen by Silicalite,Methane is the most important non-CO(2) greenhouse gas (GHG) responsible for global warming with more than 10% of total GHG emissions. The greenhouse warming potential (GWP) of this gas is much higher than carbon dioxide. Therefore| any reduction in methane emissions is really important in atmosphere reconstruction. Nitrogen is needed to be removed from landfill gas to obtain low grade natural gas as a renewable source of energy from garbage| but the separation is really difficult. Adsorption was considered as a possibility for this separation| and silicalite was studied as the adsorbent. The adsorption behavior of methane and nitrogen with this adsorbent was studied by concentration pulse chromatography and constant volume techniques. Ideal separation factors were obtained from the experimental pure adsorption isotherms by using the temperature independent Toth isotherm model. Mixture adsorption isotherms for the binary system of methane and nitrogen at (40| 70| and 100)degrees C at 1 bar total pressure were determined experimentally. Corresponding x-y diagrams and separation factors were obtained from these data. The thermodynamic consistency tests between pure and binary gas adsorption systems were also carried out. The separation factors obtained with silicalite for the separation applications of methane and nitrogen gases in this work are much better than those obtained for other systems in the literature. 9895,2009,3,3,Pyrolysis of agricultural residues from rape and sunflowers: Production and characterization of bio-fuels and biochar soil management,This research explores the opportunities of combining energy production with a biochar soil management using a pyrolysis process. Real-world issues justify this approach: the need to provide sustainable production systems that minimize on- and off-site pollution and soil degradation; and the demand for solutions to global warming. The proposed technology is a pyrolysis process that yields gas| bio-oil and biochar. The composition and heating Value of the gas makes it Suitable for use as a fuel. The bio-oil obtained may be evaluated as an environmentally friendly green biofuel candidate. The biochar product is carbon-rich and a potential solid biofuel. Other ways it might be used as a C and N source in soil amendment. This is a key to securing environmental benefits: the production of a biochar which can be applied to soil. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 998,2009,2,4,Quantifying changes of wind speed distributions in the historical record of Atlantic tropical cyclones,Here we re-examine the official Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (hurricane) database HURDAT (1851-2008) and quantify differences between wind speed distributions in the early historical (1851-1943) record and more recent observations. Analyses were performed at three different geographical levels: for all six-hourly track segments of all Atlantic basin events| all segments of all events that crossed the US mainland| and US landfalling segments alone. At all three geographical levels of study| distributions of windspeeds over the last two| four and six decades display negligible dispersion or systematic change over time. On the other hand and relative to wind speed frequencies for subsequent years| the 1851-1943 record has a marked and statistically significant over-representation of wind speeds largely corresponding to Saffir-Simpson Categories 1 and 2 and under-representation of Categories 4 and 5 events; importantly| no single Category 5 event is recorded prior to 1924. The stability of the distribution of windspeeds at landfall over the last six decades| the dataset in which we can have most confidence| suggests that the differences in the earlier record are most likely explained by well-known measurement and observational deficiencies. Moreover by disaggregating the Power Dissipation Index (PDI)| we demonstrate that the upward trend in Atlantic basin PDI since 1970s does not imply stronger and longer duration Category 5 windspeeds despite a warming climate. These results have implications for hurricane catastrophe loss modeling for the insurance industry and long-term trend analyses of the historical wind speed record| especially those related to the attribution of the role of Global Climate Change. 9408,2009,3,4,Quantifying soil organic carbon in forage-based cow-calf congregation-grazing zone interface,Recent concerns about global warming due to accumulations of atmospheric CO(2) have encouraged the achievement of better understanding of the roles of animal agriculture in mitigating CO(2) emissions. Grazing can accelerate and alter the timing of nutrient transfers| and increase the amount of nutrients cycled from plant to soil. Our reason for conducting this study is to test whether cattle congregation sites (CCS) typical on most Florida ranches| such as mineral feeders (MF)| water troughs (WT)| and shaded areas (SA) have higher soil organic carbon (SOC) than in other locations of pasture under foraged-based system. Baseline soil samples around the congregations zones (MF| WT| and SA) and grazing zones in established (> 10 year)| grazed cow-calf pastures were collected in the spring and fall of 2003| 2004| and 2005| respectively. Soil samples were collected from two soil depths (0-20 and 20-40 cm) at different locations around the CCS following a radial (every 90 degrees: N| S| E| and W) sampling pattern at 0.9| 1.7| 3.3| 6.7| 13.3| 26.7| and 53.3 m away from the approximate center of MF| WT| and SA. The levels of SOC varied significantly with CCS (P a parts per thousand currency sign 0.001)| distance away from the center of the CCS (P a parts per thousand currency sign 0.05)| sampling depth (P a parts per thousand currency sign 0.001)| sampling year (P a parts per thousand currency sign 0.001) and the interaction of CCS and soil depth (P a parts per thousand currency sign 0.001). Sampling orientations did not significantly affect the levels of SOC. The SA sites had the highest level of SOC of 3.58 g kg(-1)| followed by WT sites (3.47 g kg(-1)) and MF sites (2.98 g kg(-1)). Results of our study did not support our hypothesis that cattle congregation sites typical on most ranches| such as MF| WT and SA| may have higher concentrations of SOC. The levels of SOC (averaged across CCS) within the congregation zone (3.42 g kg(-1)) were not significantly (P a parts per thousand currency sign 0.05) different from the concentrations of SOC at the grazing zone (3.16 g kg(-1)). 10318,2009,3,4,Quantifying system uncertainty of life cycle assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation,Many studies evaluate the results of applying different life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) methods to the same life cycle inventory (LCI) data and demonstrate that the assessment results would be different with different LICA methods used. Although the importance of uncertainty is recognized| most studies focus on individual stages of LCA| such as LCI and normalization and weighting stages of LCIA. However| an important question has not been answered in previous studies: Which part of the LCA processes will lead to the primary uncertainty? The understanding of the uncertainty contributions of each of the LCA components will facilitate the improvement of the credibility of LCA. A methodology is proposed to systematically analyze the uncertainties involved in the entire procedure of LCA. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyze the uncertainties associated with LCI| LCIA| and the normalization and weighting processes. Five LCIA methods are considered in this study| i.e.| Eco-indicator 99| EDIP| EPS| IMPACT 2002+| and LIME. The uncertainty of the environmental performance for individual impact categories (e.g.| global warming| ecotoxicity| acidification| eutrophication| photochemical smog| human health) is also calculated and compared. The LCA of municipal solid waste management strategies in Taiwan is used as a case study to illustrate the proposed methodology. The primary uncertainty source in the case study is the LCI stage under a given LCIA method. In comparison with various LCIA methods| EDIP has the highest uncertainty and Eco-indicator 99 the lowest uncertainty. Setting aside the uncertainty caused by LCI| the weighting step has higher uncertainty than the normalization step when Eco-indicator 99 is used. Comparing the uncertainty of various impact categories| the lowest is global warming| followed by eutrophication. Ecotoxicity| human health| and photochemical smog have higher uncertainty. In this case study of municipal waste management| it is confirmed that different LCIA methods would generate different assessment results. In other words| selection of LCIA methods is an important source of uncertainty. In this study| the impacts of human health| ecotoxicity| and photochemical smog can vary a lot when the uncertainties of LCI and LCIA procedures are considered. For the purpose of reducing the errors of impact estimation because of geographic differences| it is important to determine whether and which modifications of assessment of impact categories based on local conditions are necessary. This study develops a methodology of systematically evaluating the uncertainties involved in the entire LCA procedure to identify the contributions of different assessment stages to the overall uncertainty. Which modifications of the assessment of impact categories are needed can be determined based on the comparison of uncertainty of impact categories. Such an assessment of the system uncertainty of LCA will facilitate the improvement of LCA. If the main source of uncertainty is the LCI stage| the researchers should focus on the data quality of the LCI data. If the primary source of uncertainty is the LCIA stage| direct application of LCIA to non-LCIA software developing nations should be avoided. 917,2009,4,4,Quantifying the underestimation of soil organic carbon by the Walkley and Black technique - examples from Himalayan and Central Indian soils,Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important indicator of soil quality and productivity. The present study focuses on the comparative evaluation of the 'wet digestion' and 'oxidative combustion-infrared analysis' methods for determination of SOC with examples from parts of the Himalayan and Central Indian soils. It is found that the commonly used wet digestion (Walkley and Black) method underestimates the SOC significantly. The study estimates a correction factor quite different from the standard adopted in most of the investigations. Considering the importance of SOC stock and dynamics being used as inputs in models predicting global climate change and future global carbon cycle| it is emphasized that appropriate correction factors need to be developed for Indian soils| and applied to the SOC estimates obtained from the Walkley and Black method to improve the accuracy. 9446,2009,3,2,Quantitative and Kinetic Thermogravimetric Fourier Transform Infrared (TG-FTIR) Study of Pyrolysis of Agricultural Residues: Influence of Different Pretreatments,High energy prices and an established awareness of the anthropogenic origin of global warming are stimulating markets and policymakers to move toward a much higher utilization of biomass fuels for energy conversion. In order to develop efficient processes| though| much research is still needed to characterize the behavior of Such alternative fuels. Ill this paper the pyrolysis of some agro-residues| abundant ill Europe| was studied in a TG-FTIR setup. In order to remove from the samples the alkali metals and Cl which are detrimental for process operation| causing slagging| fouling| and loss of fluidization| a water leaching pretreatment was applied to all the samples. The thermogravimetric curve of wheat straw showed a singular peak at 324 degrees C and a residue of 21.6 wt % ar. The leaching pretreatment increased the temperature or reaction up to 355 degrees C and the weight loss to 83.3 wt % ar. The olive residue sample also showed all increase in reacting temperature and volatile release. The peach sample| probably due to its different composition| reacted over two very distinct peaks at 287 and 359 degrees C. The leaching procedure did not affect this sample oil the temperatures of reaction| while it slightly increased the amount of volatiles released. A distributed activation energy method (DAEM) was used to retrieve kinetic parameters from the measurements. When using a discrete distribution with a fixed pre-exponential factor of 2.2 x 10(13) [s(-1)]| the main reaction path for wheat straw and olive residue appeared to be at 176 kJ/mol| while for the leached samples and for the peach stones sample it appeared at 184 kJ/mol. The leaching pretreatment removed I high percentage of mineral inclusions ill the samples| mostly in the forms of KCl and NaCl. This increased the temperature at which the samples decomposed| increased the released volatiles| and slightly increased the reaction rate. 10098,2009,2,4,Quantitative aspects of heterogeneity in soil organic matter dynamics in a cool-temperate Japanese beech forest: a radiocarbon-based approach,Soil is the largest carbon reservoir in terrestrial ecosystems; it stores twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. It is well documented that global warming can lead to accelerated microbial decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) and enhance the release of CO(2) from the soil to the atmosphere; however| the magnitude and timing of this effect remain highly uncertain due to a lack of quantitative data concerning the heterogeneity of SOC biodegradability. Therefore| we sought to identify SOC pools with respect to their specific mean residence times (MRTs)| to use those SOC pools to partition soil respiration sources| and to estimate the potential response of the pools to warming. We collected surface soil and litter samples from a cool-temperate deciduous forest in Japan| chemically separated the samples into SOC fractions| estimated their MRTs based on radiocarbon ((14)C) isotope measurements| and used the data to construct a model representing the soil as a complex of six SOC pools with different MRT ranges. We estimate that a minor| fast-cycling SOC pool with an MRT of less than 10 years (corresponding to the O horizon and recognizable plant leaf fragments in the A1 horizon) is responsible for 73% of annual heterotrophic respiration and 44% of total soil respiration. However| the predicted response of these pools to warming demonstrates that the rate of SOC loss from the fast-cycling SOC pool diminishes quickly (within several decades) because of limited substrate availability. In contrast| warming will continue to accelerate SOC loss from slow-cycling pools with MRTs of 20-200 years over the next century. Although using a (14)C-based approach has drawbacks| these estimates provide quantitative insights into the potential importance of slow-cycling SOC dynamics for the prediction of positive feedback to climate change. 10235,2009,3,2,Quantitative results for methane production of cattle in Germany,An extensive number of investigations on the energetic utilization efficiency of nutrients and feedstuffs by cattle were carried out in the former Oskar-Kellner-Institute (now the "Oskar Kellner" Research Unit of Nutritional Physiology at the Research Institute for the Biology of Farm Animals (FBN)| Dummerstorf). The amounts of methane (CH(4)) that they produced were compiled and stratified with regard to various performances| dietary nutrient composition and nutrition levels. With increasing food intake and performance| an increase of CH(4) emission per animal was observed. However| with increasing performance| a strong decrease of CH(4) production per unit of product was determined. Altogether| the 12.74 million cattle in Germany produce 1.04 million tons of CH(4) per year. This represents 1.25% of the CH(4) production of the 1.3 thousand million (UK)/billion (US) cattle in the world or 0.22% of the total emission on the earth. As a greenhouse gas| CH(4) from cattle worldwide and from cattle in Germany account for 3.5% and 0.04% of global warming| respectively. In addition| opportunities for a further reduction of enteric CH(4) release are discussed. 10339,2009,4,3,Quantitative study of the CO(2) emission to the atmosphere from biological scaling laws,The increase in carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions to the atmosphere from different countries has given rise to one of the most serious environmental problems of our time: global warming. Countries and living organisms are both complex systems in that they use environmental resources to support their own dynamics. Guided by the hypothesis that the behaviour of countries might obey quantifiable universal laws that capture the essential features of other complex living systems| we analysed the CO(2) emissions of different countries based on the classical scaling laws of living organisms. Based on these laws| we estimated the CO(2) emissions to the atmosphere of 13 countries in terms of each country's body mass. A comparison with empirical data for 2002 suggests that very few countries follow the scaling law. Countries have a body (structure in space)| but also a rhythm (structure in time). Based on the idea of similarity between living organisms and countries| optimal features of intermittent flows (rhythmicities) for countries are equally presented. 10120,2009,4,4,Quantitative Trait Evolution and Environmental Change,Background: Given the recent changes in climate| there is an urgent need to understand the evolutionary ability of populations to respond to these changes. Methodology/Principal Findings: We performed individual-based simulations with different shapes of the fitness curve| different heritabilities| different levels of density compensation| and different autocorrelation of environmental noise imposed on an environmental trend to study the ability of a population to adapt to changing conditions. The main finding is that when there is a positive autocorrelation of environmental noise| the outcome of the evolutionary process is much more unpredictable compared to when the noise has no autocorrelation. In addition| we found that strong selection resulted in a higher load| and more extinctions| and that this was most pronounced when heritability was low. The level of density-compensation was important in determining the variance in load when there was strong selection| and when genetic variance was lower when the level of density-compensation was low. Conclusions: The strong effect of the details of the environmental fluctuations makes predictions concerning the evolutionary future of populations very hard to make. In addition| to be able to make good predictions we need information on heritability| fitness functions and levels of density compensation. The results strongly suggest that patterns of environmental noise must be incorporated in future models of environmental change| such as global warming. 10028,2009,2,4,Radiative cooling effect of Hurricane Florence in 2006 and precipitation of Typhoon Matsa in 2005,The increasing strength of tropical cyclones may be a response of the Earth's interaction between natural variability and human activities. Negative effects of the severe storms| such as flooding| landslides| damage to properties| and even a number of human casualties| have been reported many times. This study reported other aspects on Hurricanes and Typhoons| which may be beneficial to the world. We found that Hurricane Florence in 2006 decreased radiation energy by -0.5 x 10(20) J to the Earth-atmospheric system| about 10% of the annual global energy consumption. If the amount of energy uniformly distributes over the whole Earth surface and over 1-year time| it corresponds to a power of -0.003 W m(-2) The total forcing power on climate change is 0.24 W m(-2)| if we only take account for the stored fluxes in water| atmosphere| continents| and heat required to melt glaciers and sea ice. Thus| the shielding effect of solar radiation by tropical storms could contribute to ease global warming. In addition| hurricane and typhoon can ease drought sometimes. This study found that the total rainwater carried by Typhoon Matsa in August 2005 into China's inland amounts to about 135 billion tons. The rainfall over the northern China eased severe drought in summer 2005. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 9653,2009,3,3,Radiative forcing and the optimal rotation age,Forests help mitigate climate change by sequestering atmospheric carbon. However| boreal and high-latitude temperate forests may also contribute to global warming due to the albedo effect. The relative effects of carbon sequestration and albedo can be quantified in terms of radiative forcing. We present a stylized| stand-level analysis to determine the optimal rotation age when considering a tax/subsidy scheme based on radiative forcing and the notion of equivalent carbon emissions. Additional management decision variables considered include species choice and regeneration effort| since these can impact the albedo effect. We demonstrate analytically that the optimal rotation length is likely shortened when albedo-related equivalent emissions are incorporated| relative to a policy based only on carbon. Empirical results indicate that rotation ages do decrease relative to a "carbon only" policy| and approach the traditional (timber only) Faustmann rotation age as equivalent emission rates increase. Our results suggest that forestation does not necessarily provide climatic benefits in all circumstances| and that. at the margin| other opportunities for carbon reduction (e.g. abatement)| or pursuing forestation in other locations| become more attractive. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9412,2009,4,2,Radiative forcing from household fuel burning in Asia,Household fuel use in developing countries| particularly as biomass and coal| is a major source of carbonaceous aerosols and other air pollutants affecting health and climate. Using state-of-the-art emission inventories| a global three-dimensional photochemical tracer/transport model of the troposphere| and a global radiative transfer model based on methods presented in the latest IPCC Assessment Report (2007-AR4)| we estimate the radiative forcing (RF) attributable to household fuel combustion in Asia in terms of current global annual-mean RF and future global integrated RF for a one-year pulse of emissions (2000) over two time horizons (100 and 20 years). Despite the significant emissions of black carbon (BC) aerosols| these estimates indicate that shorter-lived (non-Kyoto) air pollutants from household fuel use in the region overall seem to exert a small net negative RF because of the strong influence of reflective aerosols. There are| however| major uncertainties in emission estimates for solid fuel burning| and about the sustainability of household fuel wood harvesting in Asia (the carbon neutrality of harvesting). In addition| there is still substantial uncertainty associated with the BC radiative forcing. As a result we find that the sign of the RF from household biomass burning in the region cannot be established. While recognizing the value of integrating climate change and air pollution policies| we are concerned that for a 'Kyoto style' post-Kyoto treaty (with global cap-and-trade and the Global Warming Potential as the metric) expanding the basket of components with a selection of short-lived species without also including the wider range of co-emitted species may lead to unintended consequences for global-scale climate. Additional measurement| modelling| and policy research is urgently needed to reduce the uncertainties so that the net impact on climate of emissions and mitigation measures in this sector can be accurately assessed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10215,2009,2,4,Radiocarbon Analysis of Carbonaceous Aerosols: Recent Developments,Carbonaceous aerosols are a major fraction of airborne particulate matter. They contribute to climate and health effects of the total aerosol burden of the atmosphere by counteracting the current trend of global warming and inducing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases| respectively. In spite of this general importance| only little is known about composition and sources of carbonaceous aerosols. Analysis of the long-lived radioactive isotope (14)C (radiocarbon) is a unique source apportionment tool: it unambiguously separates fossil from non-fossil sources| as (14)C has completely decayed in fossil fuels| whereas modern materials have the contemporary radiocarbon level. A novel separation method was developed for the direct determination of (14)C in organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC)| two sub-fractions of total carbon (TC). The implementation of a gas ion source for measurement with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) made (14)C analysis more simple and robust. Based on this technique| all major contributions to the carbonaceous aerosol can be identified| which originate from fossil-fuel| biomass-burning and biogenic emissions. A survey of results from different field campaigns is shown. 9356,2009,5,4,Radiocarbon chronology of Holocene colluvial (debris-flow) events at Sletthamn| Jotunheimen| southern Norway: a window on the changing frequency of extreme climatic events and their landscape impact,The history of colluvial events over the last 8500 years is reconstructed in three Norwegian alpine slope-foot mires fed by three independent debris-flow systems. Chronologies for each site are constructed based on 155 radiocarbon-dated peat samples. At the multimillennial scale| debris-flow activity was greatest during the transition from the Holocene Thermal Maximum to the late Holocene (c. 4300-2800 cal. BP) when debris-flow events occurred with a frequency of 1 in 33 years: two peaks in activity| characterized by 1 event in 14 years and 1 event in 25 years| were reached at the beginning and end of this interval| respectively. Least activity occurred during the Holocene Thermal Maximum from c. 8000 to 7100 cal. BP| with one event in 900 years. Eight distinct century- to millennial-scale phases of high debris-flow frequency (>3 events per 100 years) are identified at c. 8300-8000| 7100-7000| 4300-3700| 3200-2800| 2200-1900| 1500-1200| 800-700 and 300-0 cal. BP. Similarities in the records from the three sites suggest underlying climatic variations linked to the frequency of intense summer and autumn rainfall events M the primary meteorological trigger of slope failure in the source areas). Differences between the records reflect local site sensitivity to the initiation of debris-flow activity and the triggering of each subsequent debris-flow event. It is also inferred that each debris-flow system passes through multimillennial stages of at first increasing and later decreasing sensitivity as its source area expands. The climatic signals in the debris-flow record appear to differ in various respects from those derived from other precipitation-sensitive proxies from southern Norway (river floods| snow avalanches and glacier variations). Debris-flow records provide| therefore| complementary information relating to extreme climatic events and demonstrate instabilities in the Holocene landscape but provide little or no support for the concept of an increasing landscape impact of debris flows in response to global warming. 9900,2009,4,4,Radiocarbon deficiencies of US Gulf Coast lakes compromise paleo-hurricane records,Radiocarbon assays of sediments front Lake Shelby. US Gulf-Coast| exhibit substantial (14)C deficiencies of 9.3% and 4.7% for the limnic sapropel and associated fresh-water clams Rangia cuneota| respectively. Measured radiocarbon dates from the sapropel and clams require corrections of 785 +/- 80 and 365 +/- 90 (14)C yr (1 sigma)| respectively| in order to achieve consistency with the radiocarbon time scale. Lake sediments of the US Cuff Coast serve as unique repositories of pre-historic hurricane strikes. Previously Unrecognized radiocarbon deficiencies likely render compromised chronologies of the paleo-hurricane records| and erroneous estimates of return period and landfall probability that are derived from the storm chronologies. The recalculated severe hurricane chronologies suggest that the annual landfall probabilities of the last millennium on the US Gulf Coast are equal to| or higher than| the preceding three millennia. (c) 2009 University of Washington. All rights reserved. 9750,2009,2,4,Rainfall intensity and groundwater recharge: empirical evidence from the Upper Nile Basin,Changes in the intensity of precipitation as a result of global warming are expected to be especially pronounced in the tropics. The impact of changing rainfall intensities on groundwater recharge remains| however| unclear. Analysis of a recently compiled data set of coincidental| daily observations of rainfall and groundwater levels remote from abstraction for four stations in the Upper Nile Basin over the period 1999-2008 shows that the magnitude of observed recharge events is better related to the sum of heavy rainfalls| exceeding a threshold of 10 mm day(-1)| than to that of all daily rainfall events. Consequently| projected increases in rainfall intensities as a result of global warming may promote rather than restrict groundwater recharge in similar environments of the tropics. Further monitoring and research are required to test the robustness of these findings| but the evidence presented is consistent with recent modelling highlighting the importance of explicitly considering changing rainfall intensities in the assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater recharge. 812,2009,5,4,Rapid radiation of Impatiens (Balsaminaceae) during Pliocene and Pleistocene: Result of a global climate change,Impatiens comprises more than 1000 species and is one of the largest genera of flowering plants. The genus has a subcosmopolitan distribution| yet most of its evolutionary history is unknown. Diversification analyses| divergence time estimates and historical biogeography| illustrated that the extant species of Impatiens originated in Southwest China and started to diversify in the Early Miocene. Until the Early Pliocene| the net diversification rate within the genus was fairly slow. Since that time| however| approximately 80% of all Impatiens lineages have originated. This period of rapid diversification coincides with the global cooling of the Earth's climate and subsequent glacial oscillations. Without this accelerated diversification rate| Impatiens would only have contained 1/5th of its current number of species| thereby indicating the rapid radiation of the genus. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 9892,2009,2,4,Rapid range expansion of a wing-dimorphic bush-cricket after the 2003 climatic anomaly,During recent decades| many species have responded to global warming by poleward range expansions. We require a better mechanistic understanding of the nature and extent of such processes to assess how climate change might affect biodiversity. Wing-dimorphic bush-crickets are excellent objects to study dispersal and colonization processes at the range margin because the long-winged morphs (macropters) represent dispersal units of otherwise flightless species. Moreover| these insects produce noisy songs and can easily be mapped. The present study comprised a detailed investigation of the population dynamics and genetics at the edge of the range of Roesel's bush-cricket| Metrioptera roeselii. We mapped the distribution of this insect in a previously unoccupied area of 185 km(2) and examined the genetic structure at the range margin using four polymorphic microsatellite loci. The results obtained demonstrate that the European heat wave in 2003 induced a strong immigration of macropters in the area stemming from multiple sources| whereas only few immigrants were recorded in the two subsequent years. Macropters were genotyped in a distance of up to 19.1 km from their origin| considerably exceeding the known dispersal distances for this species. Moreover| the data show that strong local founder effects are equalized on a large scale by the high number of immigrants from multiple sources. The present study demonstrates that macropters are of high significance for the range expansion of wing-dimorphic insects because a single-year climatic anomaly can induce strong dispersal processes. (C) 2009 The Linnean Society of London| Biological Journal of the Linnean Society| 2009| 97| 118-127. 9975,2009,5,4,Rapid sea-level rise and reef back-stepping at the close of the last interglacial highstand,Widespread evidence of a +4-6-m sea-level highstand during the last interglacial period (Marine Isotope Stage 5e) has led to warnings that modern ice sheets will deteriorate owing to global warming and initiate a rise of similar magnitude by AD 2100 (ref. 1). The rate of this projected rise is based on ice-sheet melting simulations and downplays discoveries of more rapid ice loss(2|3). Knowing the rate at which sea level reached its highstand during the last interglacial period is fundamental in assessing if such rapid ice-loss processes could lead to future catastrophic sea-level rise. The best direct record of sea level during this highstand comes from well-dated fossil reefs in stable areas(4-6). However| this record lacks both reef-crest development up to the full highstand elevation| as inferred(7) from widespread intertidal indicators at +6m| and a detailed chronology| owing to the difficulty of replicating U-series ages on submillennial timescales(8). Here we present a complete reef-crest sequence for the last interglacial highstand and its U-series chronology from the stable northeast Yucatan peninsula| Mexico. We find that reef development during the highstand was punctuated by reef-crest demise at +3m and back-stepping to +6m. The abrupt demise of the lower-reef crest| but continuous accretion between the lower-lagoonal unit and the upper-reef crest| allows us to infer that this back-stepping occurred on an ecological timescale and was triggered by a 2-3-m jump in sea level. Using strictly reliable (230)Th ages of corals from the upper-reef crest| and improved stratigraphic screening of coral ages from other stable sites| we constrain this jump to have occurred similar to 121 kyr ago and conclude that it supports an episode of ice-sheet instability during the terminal phase of the last interglacial period. 922,2009,2,4,Rapid warming of Large Marine Ecosystems,The need to understand local effects of global climate change is most urgent in the Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) since marine ecosystem-based management requires information on the LME scale. Reported here is a study of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the World Ocean LMEs in 19572006 that revealed strong regional variations in the rate of SST change. The rapid warming in 19822006 was confined to the Subarctic Gyre| European Seas| and East Asian Seas. These LMEs warmed at rates 2-4 times the global mean rate. The most rapid warming was observed in the land-locked or semi-enclosed European and East Asian Seas (Baltic Sea| North Sea| Black Sea| Japan Sea/East Sea| and East China Sea) and also over the Newfoundland-Labrador Shelf. The Indian Ocean LMEs' warming was slow| while two major upwelling areas - California and Humboldt Currents - experienced a slight cooling. The Subarctic Gyre warming was likely caused by natural variability related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The extremely rapid surface warming in the enclosed and semi-enclosed European and East Asian Seas surrounded by major industrial/population agglomerations may have resulted from the observed terrestrial warming directly affecting the adjacent coastal seas. Regions of freshwater influence in the European and East Asian Seas seem to play a special role in modulating and exacerbating global warming effects on the regional scale. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9625,2009,4,4,REACTION-DIFFUSION EQUATIONS FOR POPULATION DYNAMICS WITH FORCED SPEED II - CYLINDRICAL-TYPE DOMAINS,This work is the continuation of our previous paper [6]. There| we dealt with the reaction-diffusion equation partial derivative(t)u = Delta u + f (x - cte| u)| t > 0| x is an element of R(N)| where e is an element of S(N-1) and c > 0 are given and f (x| s) satisfies some usual assumptions in population dynamics| together with f(s)(x| 0) < 0 for vertical bar x vertical bar large. The interest for such equation comes from an ecological model introduced in [1] describing the effects of global warming on biological species. In [6]| we proved that existence and uniqueness of travelling wave solutions of the type u (x| t) = U (x - c t e) and the large time behaviour of solutions with arbitrary nonnegative bounded initial datum depend on the sign of the generalized principal eigenvalue in R(N) of an associated linear operator. Here| we establish analogous results for the Neumann problem in domains which are asymptotically cylindrical| as well as for the problem in the whole space with f periodic in some space variables| orthogonal to the direction of the shift e. The L(1) convergence of solution u (t| x) as t -> infinity is established next. In this paper| we also show that a bifurcation from the zero solution takes place as the principal eigenvalue crosses 0. We are able to describe the shape of solutions close to extinction thus answering a question raised by M. Mimura. These two results are new even in the framework considered in [6]. Another type of problem is obtained by adding to the previous one a term g (x - c't e| u) periodic in x in the direction e. Such a model arises when considering environmental change on two different scales. Lastly| we also solve the case of an equation partial derivative(t)u = Delta u + f (t| x - c t e| u)| when f (t| x| s) is periodic in t. This for instance represents the seasonal dependence of f. In both cases| we obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence| uniqueness and stability of pulsating travelling waves| which are solutions with a profile which is periodic in time. 10204,2009,3,3,Reactive nitrogen in atmospheric emission inventories,Excess reactive Nitrogen (Nr) has become one of the most pressing environmental problems leading to air pollution| acidification and eutrophication of ecosystems| biodiversity impacts| leaching of nitrates into groundwater and global warming. This paper investigates how current inventories cover emissions of Nr to the atmosphere in Europe| the United States of America| and China. The focus is on anthropogenic sources| assessing the state-of-the- art of quantifying emissions of Ammonia (NH(3))| Nitrogen Oxides (NO(x)) and Nitrous Oxide (N(2)O)| the different purposes for which inventories are compiled| and to which extent current inventories meet the needs of atmospheric dispersion modelling. The paper concludes with a discussion of uncertainties involved and a brief outlook on emerging trends in the three regions investigated is conducted. Key issues are substantial differences in the overall magnitude| but as well in the relative sectoral contribution of emissions in the inventories that have been assessed. While these can be explained by the use of different methodologies and underlying data (e.g. emission factors or activity rates)| they may lead to quite different results when using the emission datasets to model ambient air quality or the deposition with atmospheric dispersion models. Hence| differences and uncertainties in emission inventories are not merely of academic interest| but can have direct policy implications when the development of policy actions is based on these model results. The level of uncertainty of emission estimates varies greatly between substances| regions and emission source sectors. This has implications for the direction of future research needs and indicates how existing gaps between modelled and measured concentration or deposition rates could be most efficiently addressed. The observed current trends in emissions display decreasing NO(x) emissions and only slight reductions for NH(3) in both Europe and the US. However| in China projections indicate a steep increase of both. 10009,2009,4,4,Real-time Non-contact Millimeter Wave Characterization of Water-Freezing and Ice-Melting Dynamics,We applied millimeter wave radiometry for the first time to monitor water-freezing and ice-melting dynamics in real-time non-contact. The measurements were completed at a frequency of 137 GHz. Small amounts (about 2 mL) of freshwater or saltwater were frozen over a Peltier cooler and the freezing and melting sequence was recorded. Saltwater was prepared in the laboratory that contained 3.5% of table salt to simulate the ocean water. The dynamics of freezing-melting was observed by measuring the millimeter wave temperature as well as the changes in the ice or water surface reflectivity and position. This was repeated using large amounts of freshwater and saltwater (800 mL) mimicking glaciers. Millimeter wave surface level fluctuations indicated as the top surface melted| the light ice below floated up indicating lower surface temperature until the ice completely melted. Our results are useful for remote sensing and tracking temperature for potentially large-scale environmental applications| e.g.| global warming. 9752,2009,2,4,Rebuttal of "Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit",Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process| the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response| Armstrong et al. [Armstrong| J. S.| K. C. Green| W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38(5) 382-405]| which we will refer to as AGS| performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools| that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions| that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts| and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment| polar bear biology| or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific investigations. In summary| we show that the AGS audit offers no valid criticism of the USGS conclusion that global warming poses a serious threat to the future welfare of polar bears and that it only serves to distract from reasoned public-policy debate. 10056,2009,4,4,Recent anomalies of mean temperature of 12 consecutive months - Germany| Europe| Northern Hemisphere,Anomalies of mean air temperature of 12 consecutive months were detected recently at a number of spatial scales: from local via national and continental| to hemispheric. At all these spatial scales| pre-2007 records were exceeded by considerable margins. The recent rise in the mean temperature of 12 consecutive months at several scales has remained largely unnoticed| because the 12-month means are seldom analyzed. Broad attention is typically focused on monthly| seasonal and annual temperatures. Analysis of shifted 12-month periods helps spot peculiar 12-month episodes with remarkable temperature anomalies that do not coincide with a calendar year. Introducing 12-month running mean temperatures into the global warming debate can prove useful. 9515,2009,2,4,Recent changes in Imja Glacial Lake and its damming moraine in the Nepal Himalaya revealed by in situ surveys and multi-temporal ASTER imagery,Changes in the area and bathymetry of Imja Glacial Lake and in the elevation of its damming moraine| Khumbu region| Nepal Himalaya are investigated. Previously reported changes in the lake area have been updated by multi-temporal ASTER images| which revealed a decreased expansion rate after 2000. A provisional expansion of the lake observed in 2004| from which some studies concluded an accelerated lake expansion due to global warming| has| from 2005| subsided to the glacier surface. Bathymetric changes for the period 1992-2002 that were first obtained for Himalayan glacial lakes suggest that the melting of debris-covered ice beneath the lake is insignificant in terms of the increase in lake volume| and that the retreat of a glacier in contact with the lake by calving is essential for the lake's expansion. Changes in the height of a damming moraine for the period 2001-2007 suggest a continuous surface lowering near the lake| though the lowering rates are smaller than those for the period 1989-1994. 9603,2009,2,4,Recent Climate Trends on the Northern Slopes of the Tianshan Mountains| Xinjiang| China,In and regions| mountains fulfill important ecological and economic functions for the surrounding lowlands. In the scenario of global warming| mountain ecosystems change rapidly| especially in the and region of northwestern China. This paper provides an assessment of the changes in temperature and precipitation in the historical records of climate on the northern slopes of the eastern Tianshan Mountains. A Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend and Sen's tests are employed to analyze the interannual changes and innerannual variability in temperature and precipitation in the regions of low to high altitude. The present study finds that the largest increases in annual temperature are observed at stations in the low altitude regions. The significant increasing trends in temperature tend to occur mainly in late winter and early spring at stations from middle to high altitude| but in summer and autumn at stations of low altitudes. The increasing trends in annual precipitation are found from the middle to high altitude areas| but decreasing trends are found in the low altitude areas. The significant increasing trends in precipitation occur mostly in winter and earlier spring at stations from the middle to high altitudes| while the increasing and decreasing trend coexists at stations of low altitude with most of the significant trend changes occurring in March| June and August. 900,2009,2,4,Recent land cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau: a review,This paper reviews the land cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau during the last 50 years partly caused by natural climate change and| more importantly| influenced by human activities. Recent warming trends on the plateau directly influence the permafrost and snow melting and will impact on the local ecosystem greatly. Human activities increased rapidly on the plateau during the last half century and have significant impacts on land use. Significant land cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau include permafrost and grassland degradation| urbanization| deforestation and desertification. These changes not only impact on local climate and environment| but also have important hydrological implications for the rivers which originate from the plateau. The most noticeable disasters include the flooding at the upper reaches of Yangtze River and droughts along the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River. Future possible land cover changes under future global climate warming are important but hard to assess due to the deficits of global climate model in this topographically complex area. Integrated investigation of climate and ecosystems| including human-beings| are highly recommended for future studies. 9810,2009,2,4,Recent unprecedented skewness towards positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurrences and its impact on Australian rainfall,Is the recent high frequency of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events a consequence of global warming? Using available observations and reanalyses| we show that the pIOD occurrences increase from about four per 30 years early in the 20th century to about 10 over the last 30 years; by contrast| the number of negative Indian Ocean Dipole (nIOD) events decreases from about 10 to two over the same periods| respectively. A skewness measure| defined as the difference in occurrences of pIODs and nIODs| illustrates a systematic trend in this parameter commencing early in the 20th century. After 1950| there are more pIODs than nIODs| with consistent mean circulation changes in the pIOD-prevalent seasons. Over southeastern Australia (SEA)| these changes potentially account for much of the observed austral winter and spring rainfall reduction since 1950. These features are consistent with projected future climate change and hence with what is expected from global warming. Citation: Cai| W.| T. Cowan| and A. Sullivan (2009)| Recent unprecedented skewness towards positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurrences and its impact on Australian rainfall| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L11705| doi: 10.1029/2009GL037604. 10040,2009,2,2,Reconstructing annual inflows to the headwater catchments of the Murray River| Australia| using the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a major forcing of inter-decadal to quasi-centennial variability of the hydroclimatology of the Pacific Basin. Its effects are most pronounced in the extra-tropical regions| while it modulates the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| the largest forcing of global inter-annual climate variability. Palaeo-PDO indices are now available for at least the past 500 years. Here we show that the > 500 year PDO index of Shen et al. ( 2006) is highly correlated with inflows to the headwaters of Australia's longest river system| the Murray-Darling. We then use the PDO to reconstruct annual inflows to the Murray River back to A. D. 1474. These show penta-decadal and quasi-centennial cycles of low inflows and a possible 500 year cycle of much greater inflow variability. Superimposed on this is the likely influence of recent anthropogenic global warming. We believe this may explain the exceptionally low inflows of the past decade| the lowest of the previous 529 years. Citation: McGowan| H. A.| S. K. Marx| J. Denholm| J. Soderholm| and B. S. Kamber (2009)| Reconstructing annual inflows to the headwater catchments of the Murray River| Australia| using the Pacific Decadal Oscillation| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L06707| doi:10.1029/2008GL037049. 10297,2009,5,3,Reconstructing Millennial-Scale| Regional Paleoclimates of Boreal Canada during the Holocene,Regional paleoclimate reconstructions for northern Canada quantify Holocene climate variability on orbital and millennial time scales and provide a context to better understand the current global warming. The reconstructions are based on available pollen diagrams from the boreal and low Arctic zones of Canada and use the modern analog technique (MAT). Four regional reconstructions document the space-time evolution of the climate during the Holocene. Highest summer and winter temperatures anomalies are found in central Canada during the early Holocene. Eastern Canada was relatively cool in the early Holocene| whereas central Canada was warmest at that time. Labrador was relatively dry in the early to mid-Holocene during which time western Canada was relatively moist. Millennial-scale temperature variations| especially the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are seen across the continent| with some suggestion of time-transgressive changes from west to east. At the millennial scale| precipitation anomalies are of opposite signs in eastern and western Canada. The results herein indicate that modern increases in temperatures in northern Canada far exceed natural millennial-scale climate variability. 756,2009,4,3,Reconstruction of the history of anthropogenic CO(2) concentrations in the ocean,The release of fossil fuel CO(2) to the atmosphere by human activity has been implicated as the predominant cause of recent global climate change(1). The ocean plays a crucial role in mitigating the effects of this perturbation to the climate system| sequestering 20 to 35 per cent of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions(2-4). Although much progress has been made in recent years in understanding and quantifying this sink| considerable uncertainties remain as to the distribution of anthropogenic CO(2) in the ocean| its rate of uptake over the industrial era| and the relative roles of the ocean and terrestrial biosphere in anthropogenic CO(2) sequestration. Here we address these questions by presenting an observationally based reconstruction of the spatially resolved| time-dependent history of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean over the industrial era. Our approach is based on the recognition that the transport of tracers in the ocean can be described by a Green's function| which we estimate from tracer data using a maximum entropy deconvolution technique. Our results indicate that ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO(2) has increased sharply since the 1950s| with a small decline in the rate of increase in the last few decades. We estimate the inventory and uptake rate of anthropogenic CO(2) in 2008 at 140 +/- 25 Pg C and 2.3 +/- 0.6 Pg C yr(-1)| respectively. We find that the Southern Ocean is the primary conduit by which this CO(2) enters the ocean (contributing over 40 per cent of the anthropogenic CO(2) inventory in the ocean in 2008). Our results also suggest that the terrestrial biosphere was a source of CO(2) until the 1940s| subsequently turning into a sink. Taken over the entire industrial period| and accounting for uncertainties| we estimate that the terrestrial biosphere has been anywhere from neutral to a net source of CO(2)| contributing up to half as muchCO(2) as has been taken up by the ocean over the same period. 9991,2009,2,4,Recruitment of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) and Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) between 1992 and 2006: the interplay between climate influence and predation,The interplay between temperature-related processes and predation in determining age-1 recruitment strength between 1992 and 2006 was analysed for North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) and Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii). For this purpose| an predation impact index ( PI) was calculated out of survey data. PI was assumed to depend on the abundance of the predators and on the spatial overlap between predator and prey populations. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were created with spawning stock biomass (SSB) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the respective spawning and nursery areas and PI as explaining variables. SSB had no significant impact on recruitment during this time period for both species. SSTs during spring and PI explained the interannual variability in recruitment strength to a large extent (88% of the total variance for cod and 68% for Norway pout). The SST during spring determined the overall level of recruitment. At SSTs above a certain level| however| the effect on recruitment was no longer significant. In these temperature ranges| predation was the dominant effect. Therefore| the fate of North Sea cod and Norway pout stocks under global-warming conditions will be strongly influenced by the status of the North Sea food web. 9434,2009,3,4,Recycling of glass: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions,Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to recycling of glass waste were assessed from a waste management perspective. Focus was on the material recovery facility (MRF) where the initial sorting of glass waste takes place. The MRF delivers products like cullet and whole bottles to other industries. Two possible uses of reprocessed glass waste were considered: (i) remelting of cullet added to glass production; and (ii) re-use of whole bottles. The GHG emission accounting included indirect upstream emissions (provision of energy| fuels and auxiliaries)| direct activities at the MRF and bottle-wash facility (combustion of fuels) as well as indirect downstream activities in terms of using the recovered glass waste in other industries and| thereby| avoiding emissions from conventional production. The GHG accounting was presented as aggregated global warming factors (GWFs) for the direct and indirect upstream and downstream processes| respectively. The range of GWFs was estimated to 0-70 kg CO(2)eq.tonne(-1) of glass waste for the upstream activities and the direct emissions from the waste management system. The GWF for the downstream effect showed some significant variation between the two cases. It was estimated to approximately -500 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of glass waste for the remelting technology and -1500 to -600 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of glass waste for bottle re-use. Including the downstream process| large savings of GHG emissions can be attributed to the waste management system. The results showed that| in GHG emission accounting| attention should be drawn to thorough analysis of energy sources| especially electricity| and the downstream savings caused by material substitution. 9436,2009,3,4,Recycling of metals: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions,Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to recycling of metals in post-consumer waste are assessed from a waste management perspective; here the material recovery facility (MRF)| for the sorting of the recovered metal. The GHG accounting includes indirect upstream emissions| direct activities at the MRF as well as indirect downstream activities in terms of reprocessing of the metal scrap and savings in terms of avoided production of virgin metal. The global warming factor (GWF) shows that upstream activities and the MRF causes negligible GHG emissions (12.8 to 52.6 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) recovered metal) compared to the reprocessing of the metal itself (360-1260 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of recovered aluminium and 400 1020 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of recovered steel). The reprocessing is however counterbalanced by large savings of avoided virgin production of steel and aluminium. The net downstream savings were found to be 5040-19 340 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of treated aluminium and 560-2360 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of treated steel. Due to the huge differences in reported data it is hard to compare general data on the recovery of metal scrap as they are very dependent on the technology and data choices. Furthermore| the energy used in both the recovery process as well as the avoided primary production is crucial. The range of avoided impact shows that recovery of metals will always be beneficial over primary production| due to the high energy savings| and that the GHG emissions associated with the sorting of metals are negligible. 9433,2009,3,4,Recycling of paper: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions,Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been established for recycling of paper waste with focus on a material recovery facility (MRF). The MRF upgrades the paper and cardboard waste before it is delivered to other industries where new paper or board products are produced. The accounting showed that the GHG contributions from the upstream activities and operational activities| with global warming factors (GWFs) of respectively 1 to 29 and 3 to 9 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) paper waste| were small in comparison wih the downstream activities. The GHG contributions from the downstream reprocessing of the paper waste ranged from approximately 490 to 1460 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of paper waste. The system may be expanded to include crediting of avoided virgin paper production which would result in GHG contributions from -1270 to 390 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) paper waste. It may also be assumed that the wood not used for virgin paper production instead is used for production of energy that in turn is assumed to substitute for fossil fuel energy. This would result in GHG contributions from -1850 to -4400 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of paper waste. These system expansions reveal very large GHG savings| suggesting that the indirect upstream and operational GHG contributions are negligible in comparison with the indirect downstream emissions. However| the data for reprocessing of paper waste and the data for virgin paper production are highly variable. These differences are mainly related to different energy sources for the mills| both in regards to energy form (heat or electricity) and fuel (biomass or fossil fuels). 9435,2009,3,3,Recycling of plastic: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions,Major greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to plastic waste recycling were evaluated with respect to three management alternatives: recycling of clean| single-type plastic| recycling of mixed/contaminated plastic| and use of plastic waste as fuel in industrial processes. Source-separated plastic waste was received at a material recovery facility (MRF) and processed for granulation and subsequent downstream use. In the three alternatives| plastic was assumed to be substituting virgin plastic in new products| wood in low-strength products (outdoor furniture| fences| etc.)| and coal or fuel oil in the case of energy utilization. GHG accounting was organized in terms of indirect upstream emissions (e.g. provision of energy| fuels| and materials)| direct emissions at the MRF (e.g. fuel combustion)| and indirect downstream emissions (e.g. avoided emissions from production of virgin plastic| wood| or coal/oil). Combined| upstream and direct emissions were estimated to be roughly between 5 and 600 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of plastic waste depending on treatment at the MRF and CO(2) emissions from electricity production. Potential downstream savings arising from substitution of virgin plastic| wood| and energy fuels were estimated to be around 60 1600 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of plastic waste depending on substitution ratios and CO(2) emissions from electricity production. Based on the reviewed data| it was concluded that substitution of virgin plastic should be preferred. If this is not viable due to a mixture of different plastic types and/or contamination| the plastic should be used for energy utilization. Recycling of plastic waste for substitution of other materials such as wood provided no savings with respect to global warming. 9437,2009,3,3,Recycling of wood for particle board production: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions,The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the recycling of wood waste have been assessed with the purpose to provide useful data that can be used in accounting of greenhouse gas emissions. Here we present data related to the activities in a material recovery facility (MRF) where wood waste is shredded and foreign objects are removed in order to produce wood chips for use in the production of particleboard. The data are presented in accordance with the UOD (upstream| operational| downstream) framework presented in Gentil et al. (Waste Management & Research| 27| 2009). The GHG accounting shows that the emissions related to upstream activities (5 to 41 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) wood waste) and to activities at the MRF (approximately 5 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) wood waste) are negligible compared to the downstream processing (-560 to -120 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne-1 wood waste). The magnitude of the savings in GHG emissions downstream are mainly related to savings in energy consumption for drying of fresh wood for particleboard production. However| the GHG account highly depends on the choices made in the modelling of the downstream system. The inclusion of saved electricity from avoided chipping of virgin wood does not change the results radically (-665 to -125 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) wood waste). However| if in addition it is assumed that the GHG emissions from combustion of wood has no global warming potential (GWP) and that the energy produced from excess wood due to recycling substitutes energy from fossil fuels| here assumed to be coal| potentially large downstream GHG emissions savings can be achieved by recycling of waste wood (-1.9 to -1.3 tonnes CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) wood waste). As the data ranges are broad| it is necessary to carefully evaluate the feasibility of the data in the specific system which the GHG accounting is to be applied to. 10019,2009,3,3,REDD in the red: palm oil could undermine carbon payment schemes,Mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) have been gaining momentum as a way to combat global warming| fund forest conservation| and deliver economic benefits to rural populations. However| the economic viability of REDD schemes will depend on the profitability of alternative land uses. Oil palm agriculture has become a major driver of tropical deforestation over the last few decades. Here| we model and compare the profitability of converting forest to oil palm versus conserving it for an REDD project. We show that converting a hectare of forest for palm oil production will be more profitable (yielding net present values of $3|835-$9|630) to land owners than preserving it for carbon credits ($614-$994)| which are currently restricted to voluntary carbon markets. Giving REDD credits price parity with carbon credits traded in compliance markets would boost the profitability of avoided deforestation (up to $6|605). Unless post-2012 global climate policies legitimize the trading of carbon credits from avoided deforestation| REDD will not be able to compete with oil palm agriculture or other similarly profitable human activities as an economically attractive land-use option| in which case REDD will not be able to fulfill its primary function of avoiding deforestation. 9302,2009,3,2,Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO(2) emissions,Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference'' (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early|'' "urgent|'' "rapid|" and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action'' to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years| be substantially implemented in 5-10 years| and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO(2) GHGs and particles| where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere| and increase biosequestration| including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO(2) emissions. 9834,2009,3,4,Reducing the Carbon Footprint of Canadian Peat Extraction and Restoration,The Canadian horticultural peat industry generates carbon emissions through various methods of peat extraction| processing| and land-use changes. This study provides a carbon emissions analysis comparing the traditional vacuum harvest (VH) and block-cut (BC) extraction techniques to a new acrotelm transplant (AT) method that restores natural peatland function by preserving and replacing the surface layer vegetation as part of the extraction process. The relative global warming potential for each extraction method was determined by estimating carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and methane exchange for each phase of peat extraction| including emissions from land-use change and machinery fuel consumption. Preliminary findings| based on 1 y of measurements| indicate that the AT technique has the lowest annual carbon emissions compared to the VH and BC methods. Projected total carbon emissions from a 75-ha peatland after 50 y of extraction using the AT technique produced a sink of approximately 3300 t CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)-e). This represents a marked reduction in total carbon emissions estimated for the VH (19 000 t CO(2)-e) and BC (29 000 t CO(2)-e) extraction techniques. This analysis suggests that the AT method reestablishes peat accumulation and peatland carbon storage function more effectively than the VH and BC methods| which are associated with delayed restoration efforts. Consequently| the AT technique has the potential to greatly reduce the carbon footprint of the Canadian horticultural peat industry. 9489,2009,3,3,Reduction of CO(2) emission by optimally tracking a pre-defined target,The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the need for balanced and efficient investments in the reduction of the greenhouse effect caused by emissions of CO(2) on a global scale. In a previous paper| the authors proposed a mathematical model describing the dynamic relation of CO(2) emission with investment in reforestation and clean technology. An efficient allocation of resources to reduce the greenhouse effect has also been proposed. Here| this model is used to provide estimates of the investments needed in land reforestation and in the adoption of clean technologies for an optimum emission and abatement of CO(2). for the period of 1996-2014. The required investments are computed to minimize deviations with respect to the emission targets proposed in the Kyoto Protocol for European Countries. The emission target can be achieved by 2014 with investments in reforestation peaking in 2004| and a reduction of the expected GDP of 42%| relative to 2006. Investments in clean technology should increase between 2008 and 2010 with maximum transfer figures around 70 million American dollars. Total (cumulative) costs are| however| relatively high depending on the price of carbon abatement and the rate at which the expected CO(2) concentration in the atmosphere should be reduced. Results highlight the advantages for policy makers to be able to manage investments in climate policy more efficiently| controlling optimum transfers based on a portfolio of actions that tracks a pre-defined CO(2) concentration target. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 849,2009,2,4,Reef Endemism| Host Specificity and Temporal Stability in Populations of Symbiotic Dinoflagellates from Two Ecologically Dominant Caribbean Corals,Background: The dinoflagellate genus Symbiodinium forms symbioses with numerous protistan and invertebrate metazoan hosts. However| few data on symbiont genetic structure are available| hindering predictions of how these populations and their host associations will fair in the face of global climate change. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here| Symbiodinium population structure from two of the Caribbean's ecologically dominant scleractinian corals| Montastraea faveolata and M. annularis| was examined. Tagged colonies on Florida Keys and Bahamian (i.e.| Exuma Cays) reefs were sampled from 2003 -2005 and their Symbiodinium diversity assessed via internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) rDNA and three Symbiodinium Clade B-specific microsatellite loci. Generally| the majority of host individuals at a site harbored an identical Symbiodinium ITS2 "type'' B1 microsatellite genotype. Notably| symbiont genotypes were largely reef endemic| suggesting a near absence of dispersal between populations. Relative to the Bahamas| sympatric M. faveolata and M. annularis in the Florida Keys harbored unique Symbiodinium populations| implying regional host specificity in these relationships. Furthermore| within-colony Symbiodinium population structure remained stable through time and environmental perturbation| including a prolonged bleaching event in 2005. Conclusions/Significance: Taken together| the population-level endemism| specificity and stability exhibited by Symbiodinium raises concerns about the long-term adaptive capacity and persistence of these symbioses in an uncertain future of climate change. 9823,2009,4,4,Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections,As reported in former studies| temperature observations obtained by expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) and mechanical bathythermographs (MBTs) appear to have positive biases as much as they affect major climate signals. These biases have not been fully taken into account in previous ocean temperature analyses| which have been widely used to detect global warming signals in the oceans. This report proposes a methodology for directly eliminating the biases from the XBT and MBT observations. In the case of XBT observation| assuming that the positive temperature biases mainly originate from greater depths given by conventional XBT fall-rate equations than the truth| a depth bias equation is constructed by fitting depth differences between XBT data and more accurate oceanographic observations to a linear equation of elapsed time. Such depth bias equations are introduced separately for each year and for each probe type. Uncertainty in the gradient of the linear equation is evaluated using a non-parametric test. The typical depth bias is +10 m at 700 m depth on average| which is probably caused by various indeterminable sources of error in the XBT observations as well as a lack of representativeness in the fall-rate equations adopted so far. Depth biases in MBT are fitted to quadratic equations of depth in a similar manner to the XBT method. Correcting the historical XBT and MBT depth biases by these equations allows a historical ocean temperature analysis to be conducted. In comparison with the previous temperature analysis| large differences are found in the present analysis as follows: the duration of large ocean heat content in the 1970s shortens dramatically| and recent ocean cooling becomes insignificant. The result is also in better agreement with tide gauge observations. 9853,2009,2,4,Regeneration potential of Taxodium distichum swamps and climate change,Seed bank densities respond to factors across local to landscape scales| and therefore| knowledge of these responses may be necessary in forecasting the effects of climate change on the regeneration of species. This study relates the seed bank densities of species of Taxodium distichum swamps to local water regime and regional climate factors at five latitudes across the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley from southern Illinois to Louisiana. In an outdoor nursery setting| the seed banks of twenty-five swamps were exposed to non-flooded (freely drained) or flooded treatments| and the number and species of seeds germinating were recorded from each swamp during one growing season. Based on ANOVA analysis| the majority of dominant species had a higher rate of germination in non-flooded versus flooded treatments. Similarly| an NMS comparison| which considered the local water regime and regional climate of the swamps| found that the species of seeds germinating| almost completely shifted under non-flooded versus flooded treatments. For example| in wetter northern swamps| seeds of Taxodium distichum germinated in non-flooded conditions| but did not germinate from the same seed banks in flooded conditions. In wetter southern swamps| seeds of Eleocharis cellulosa germinated in flooded conditions| but did not germinate in non-flooded conditions. The strong relationship of seed germination and density relationships with local water regime and regional climate variables suggests that the forecasting of climate change effects on swamps and other wetlands needs to consider a variety of interrelated variables to make adequate projections of the regeneration responses of species to climate change. Because regeneration is an important aspect of species maintenance and restoration| climate drying could influence the species distribution of these swamps in the future. 9357,2009,3,2,Region-specific assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation with different manure management strategies in four agroecological zones,Livestock farming systems are major sources of trace gases contributing to emissions of the greenhouse gases (GHG) nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and methane (CH(4))| i.e. N(2)O accounts for 10% and CH(4) for 30% of the anthropogenic contributions to net global warming. This paper presents scenario assessments of whole-system effects of technologies for reducing GHG emissions from livestock model farms using slurry-based manure management. Changes in housing and storage practice| mechanical separation| and incineration of the solid fraction derived from separation were evaluated in scenarios for Sweden| Denmark| France| and Italy. The results demonstrated that changes in manure management can induce significant changes in CH(4) and N(2)O emissions and carbon sequestration| and that the effect of introducing environmental technologies may vary significantly with livestock farming practice and interact with climatic conditions. Shortening the in-house manure storage time reduced GHG emissions by 0-40%. The largest GHG reductions of 49 to| in one case| 82% were obtained with a combination of slurry separation and incineration| the latter process contributing to a positive GHG balance of the system by substituting fossil fuels. The amount and composition of volatile solids (VS) and nitrogen pools were main drivers in the calculations performed| and requirements to improve the assessment of VS composition and turnover during storage and in the field were identified. Nevertheless| the results clearly showed that GHG emission estimates will be unrealistic| if the assumed manure management or climatic conditions do not properly represent a given country or region. The results also showed that the mitigation potential of specific manure management strategies and technologies varied depending on current management and climatic conditions. 9852,2009,4,4,Regional and Global Impacts of Land Cover Change and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies,The atmospheric and land components of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL's) Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) is used with climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to investigate the relative climatic impacts of historical anthropogenic land cover change (LCC) and realistic SST anomalies. The SST forcing anomalies used are analogous to signals induced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)| and the background global warming trend. Coherent areas of LCC are represented throughout much of central and eastern Europe| northern India| southeastern China| and on either side of the ridge of the Appalachian Mountains in North America. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. The land cover changes in the model are almost exclusively a conversion of forests to grasslands. Model results show that| at the global scale| the physical impacts of LCC on temperature and rainfall are less important than large-scale SST anomalies| particularly those due to ENSO. However| in the regions where the land surface has been altered| the impact of LCC can be equally or more important than the SST forcing patterns in determining the seasonal cycle of the surface water and energy balance. Thus| this work provides a context for the impacts of LCC on climate: namely| strong regional-scale impacts that can significantly change globally averaged fields but that rarely propagate beyond the disturbed regions. This suggests that proper representation of land cover conditions is essential in the design of climate model experiments| particularly if results are to be used for regional-scale assessments of climate change impacts. 10123,2009,2,3,Regional cooling in a warming world: Recent temperature trends in the southeast Pacific and along the west coast of subtropical South America (1979-2006),While it is widely accepted that the global mean atmospheric temperature has increased in recent decades| the spatial distribution of global warming has been complex. In this study we comprehensively characterize the spatial pattern| including vertical structure| of temperature trends along the subtropical west coast of South America ( continental Chile) for the period 1979-2006 and examine their consistency with expectations based on the CMIP-3 ensemble of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations for the late 20th century. In central and northern Chile (17 degrees-37 degrees S) the most notable feature is a strong contrast between surface cooling at coastal stations (-0.2 degrees C/decade) and warming in the Andes (+0.25 degrees C/decade)| only 100-200 km further inland. Coastal radiosonde data imply that the coast-Andes variation is largely due to strong vertical stratification of temperature trends in the atmosphere west of the Andes. The coastal cooling appears to form part of a larger-scale| La Nina-like pattern and may extend below the ocean mixed layer to depths of at least 500 m. Over continental Chile the CMIP-3 GCM ensemble predicts temperature trends similar to those observed in the Andes. The cooling along the Chilean coast is not reproduced by the models| but the mean SST warming is weaker there than any other part of the world except the Southern Ocean. It is proposed that the intensification of the South Pacific Anticyclone during recent decades| which is also a simulated consequence of global warming| is likely to play a major role in maintaining cooler temperatures off the coast of Chile. 9760,2009,2,3,Regional Variability of Climate Change Hot-Spots in East Asia,The regional climate change index (RCCI) is employed to investigate hot-spots under 21st century global warming over East Asia. The RCCI is calculated on a 1-degree resolution grid from the ensemble of CMIP3 simulations for the B1| A1B| and A2 IPCC emission scenarios. The RCCI over East Asia exhibits marked sub-regional variability. Five sub-regional hot-spots are identified over the area of investigation: three in the northern regions (Northeast China| Mongolia| and Northwest China)| one in eastern China| and one over the Tibetan Plateau. Contributions from different factors to the RCCI are discussed for the sub-regions. Analysis of the temporal evolution of the hot-spots throughout the 21st century shows different speeds of response time to global warming for the different sub-regions. Hot-spots firstly emerge in Northwest China and Mongolia. The Northeast China hot-spot becomes evident by the mid of the 21st century and it is the most prominent by the end of the century. While hot-spots are generally evident in all the 5 sub-regions for the A1B and A2 scenarios| only the Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China hot-spots emerge in the B1 scenario| which has the lowest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Our analysis indicates that subregional hot-spots show a rather complex spatial and temporal dependency on the GHG concentration and on the different factors contributing to the RCCI. 9638,2009,3,4,Regional variations in greenhouse gas emissions of biobased products in the United States-corn-based ethanol and soybean oil,Regional variations in the environmental impacts of plant biomass production are significant| and the environmental impacts associated with feedstock supply also contribute substantially to the environmental performance of biobased products. Thus| the regional variations in the environmental performance of biobased products are also significant. This study scrutinizes greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with two biobased products (i.e.| ethanol and soybean oil) whose feedstocks (i.e.| corn and soybean) are produced in different farming locations. We chose 40 counties in Corn Belt States in the United States as biorefinery locations (i.e.| corn dry milling| soybean crushing) and farming sites| and estimated cradle-to-gate GHG emissions of ethanol and of soybean oil| respectively. The estimates are based on 1 kg of each biobased product (i.e.| ethanol or soybean oil). The system boundary includes biomass production| the biorefinery| and upstream processes. Effects of direct land use change are included in the greenhouse gas analysis and measured as changes in soil organic carbon level| while the effects of indirect land use change are not considered in the baseline calculations. Those indirect effects however are scrutinized in a sensitivity analysis. GHG emissions of corn-based ethanol range from 1.1 to 2.0 kg of CO(2) equivalent per kilogram of ethanol| while GHG emissions of soybean oil are 0.4-2.5 kg of CO(2) equivalent per kilogram of soybean oil. Thus| the regional variations due to farming locations are significant (by factors of 2-7). The largest GHG emission sources in ethanol production are N(2)O emissions from soil during corn cultivation and carbon dioxide from burning the natural gas used in corn dry milling. The second largest GHG emission source groups in the ethanol production system are nitrogen fertilizer (8-12%)| carbon sequestration by soil (-15-2%)| and electricity used in corn dry milling (7-16%). The largest GHG emission sources in soybean oil production are N(2)O emissions from soil during soybean cultivation (13-57%) and carbon dioxide from burning the natural gas used in soybean crushing (21-47%). The second largest GHG emission source groups in soybean oil production are carbon sequestration by soil (-29-24%)| diesel used in soybean cultivation (4-24%)| and electricity used in the soybean crushing process (10-21%). The indirect land use changes increase GHG emissions of ethanol by 7-38%| depending on the fraction of forest converted when newly converted croplands maintain crop cultivation for 100 years. Farming sites with higher biomass yields| lower nitrogen fertilizer application rates| and less tillage are favorable to future biorefinery locations in terms of global warming. For existing biorefineries| farmers are encouraged to apply a site-specific optimal nitrogen fertilizer application rate| to convert to no-tillage practices and also to adopt winter cover practices whenever possible to reduce the GHG emissions of their biobased products. Current practices for estimating the effects of indirect land use changes suffer from large uncertainties. More research and consensus about system boundaries and allocation issues are needed to reduce uncertainties related to the effects of indirect land use changes. 10017,2009,4,3,Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean,In this study| the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean ( EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3)| which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA's finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961-90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071-2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season| the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%-50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea| over the Kackar Mountains| and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains| which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate| will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future| which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer| temperature increase is as large as 7 degrees C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3 degrees-4 degrees C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling. 9800,2009,3,4,Relating life cycle assessment indicators to gross value added for Dutch dairy farms,Sustainable dairy production requires farms that are economically viable| environmentally sound and socially acceptable. A low environmental impact of milk production is not necessarily associated with an economically viable farm. To gain insight into a possible "trade-off" between economic and environmental sustainability| the relation between the environmental and economic indicators of dairy farms was quantified| and farm characteristics that influence this relation were identified. Economic and environmental indicators were quantified for 119 specialized dairy farms in 2005| based on data from the Dutch Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). Economic indicators used were: gross value added expressed per kg fat-and-protein-corrected milk (FPCM) or expressed per unit of labour| i.e. labour productivity. Environmental indicators used were: land use per kg FPCM| energy use per kg FPCM| global warming potential per kg FPCM| eutrophication and acidification potential per kg FPCM or per ha of land. Environmental indicators were deduced from a life cycle assessment. High labour productivity on dairy farms was associated with low on-farm energy use| total and on-farm land use| total and on-farm global warming potential| and total and off-farm acidification potential per kg FPCM. High labour productivity| however. was associated also with high on-farm eutrophication and acidification potential per hectare. From partial least squares regression analysis| it was concluded that relations between economic and environmental indicators were affected mainly by milk production per ha| annual milk production per cow| farm size| and amount of concentrates per kg FPCM. An increase in annual milk production per cow. for example| not only increased labour productivity| reduced energy use and global warming potential per kg FPCM but also| in the case of an unchanged stocking density| increased eutrophication and acidification per ha. To be economically and environmentally sustainable| animal production in the Netherlands| therefore| should focus on high animal productivity| i.e. high annual milk production per cow and efficient use of feed per kg milk| and moderate stocking density| provided that a good animal welfare standard is guaranteed. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. 9506,2009,2,4,Relationships between structure and function in streams contrasting in temperature,1. We studied 10 first-order Icelandic streams differing in geothermal influence in separate catchments. Summer temperature (August–September) ranged between 6 and 23 °C.
2. Macroinvertebrate evenness and species overlap decreased significantly with temperature whereas taxon richness showed no response. In total| 35 macroinvertebrate species were found with Chironomidae the dominant taxonomic group. Macroinvertebrate density increased significantly with temperature. Dominant species in the warm streams were Lymnaea peregra and Simulium vittatum. Algal biomass| macrophyte cover and richness were unrelated to temperature. Densities of trout (Salmo trutta)| the only fish species present| reflected habitat conditions and to a lesser degree temperature.
3. Density of filter-feeders increased significantly with temperature whereas scraper density| the other dominant functional feeding group| was unrelated to temperature. Stable isotope analysis revealed a positive relationship between δ15N and temperature across several trophic levels. No pattern was found with regard to δ13C and temperature.
4. Leaf litter decomposition in both fine and coarse mesh leaf bags were significantly correlated to temperature. In coarse mesh leaf packs breakdown rates were almost doubled compared with fine mesh| ranging between 0.5 and 1.3 g DW 28 days−1. Nutrient diffusion substrates showed that the streams were primarily nitrogen limited across the temperature gradient while a significant additional effect of phosphorous was found with increasing temperature.
5. Structural and functional attributes gave complementary information which all indicated a change with temperature similar to what is found in moderately polluted streams. Our results therefore suggest that lotic ecosystems could be degraded by global warming.
We investigated the thermoregulatory abilities and behaviour of Pseudocordylus melanotus melanotus (Drakensberg crag lizard) in terms of the relationship between the operative temperature (T(e))| selected temperature (T(sel))| set-point range (T(set)) and field active body temperature (field T(sel))| exposure to low temperature| body posture and activity. The T| range for P. in. melanotus was about 58 C (-3.20 C in winter to 54.94 C in summer). In a laboratory thermal gradient| in a setting that is independent of ecological costs or thermal constraints| lizards maintained T(set) (defined as the interquartile range of T(sel) after Hertz et al.| 1993) between 29.00 +/- 0.36 C and 31.78 +/- 0.16 C in winter and 29.61 +/- 0.28 C and 32.47 +/- 0.18 C in summer. The mean T(sel) was 30.08 +/- 0.14 C in winter and 30.99 +/- 0.11 C in summer. In the field| however| lizards achieved significantly lower T(b)| which suggests that the thermal environment limited the T(b) that lizards were able to achieve. Lizards were active for significantly longer and selected significantly higher T(b) in Summer than in winter. During winter| lizards spent a significant amount of time at T(b) below their lower critical limiting temperature (defined by loss of righting). The most frequently assumed body postures in summer were those where the head or body were raised| whereas| in winter| lizards usually lay with head and body flat on the rock substrate. We suggest that these differences reflect the physiological requirements of the lizards: Head-up postures in sit-and-wait foragers are consistent with scanning for prey while head-down postures are likely motivated by thermoregulatory needs. It is clear that P. m. melanotus can thermoregulate efficiently| but the T(b) maintained may be constrained by the range of T(e) available to the lizards in their natural environment. Pseudocordylus in| melanotus currently appears to be geographically constrained by low environmental temperatures at the edge of its range. Should global warming become a reality in southern Africa| this species could inadvertently benefit by occupying new habitat that was previously unavailable because of thermal constraints.
9996,2009,3,4,Self-organized criticality of power system faults and its application in adaptation to extreme climate,This paper analyzes the statistics of faults in a transmission and distribution networks in central China| unveils long-term autocorrelation and power law distribution of power system faults| which indicates that power system fault has self-organized criticality (SOC) feature. The conclusion is consistent with the power systems data in 2008 with ice storm present. Since power systems cover large areas| climate is the key factor to its safety and stability. In-depth analysis shows that the SOC of atmosphere system contributes much to that of power system faults. Extreme climate will be more intense and frequent with global warming| it will have more and more impact upon power systems. The SOC feature of power system faults is utilized to develop approaches to facilitate power systems adaptation to climate variation in an economical and efficient way. 9676,2009,4,3,Sensitivity of surface air temperature change to land use/cover types in China,Using CRU high resolution grid observational temperature and ERA40 reanalysis surface air temperature data during 1960-1999| we investigated the sensitivity of surface air temperature change to land use/cover types in China by subtracting the reanalysis from the observed surface air temperature (observation minus reanalysis| OMR). The results show that there is a stable and systemic impact of land use/cover types on surface air temperature. The surface warming of each land use/cover type reacted differently to global warming. The OMR trends of unused land (a (c) 3/40.17 A degrees C/decade)| mainly comprised by sandy land| Gobi and bare rock gravel land| are obviously larger than those of the other land use/cover types. The OMR over grassland| farmland and construction land shows a moderate decadal warmingabout 0.12A degrees C/decade| 0.10A degrees C/decade| 0.12A degrees C/decade| respectively. Woodland areas do not show a significant warming trend (0.06A degrees C/decade). The overall assessment indicates that the surface warming is larger for areas that are barren and anthropogenically developed. The better the vegetation cover| the smaller the OMR warming trend. Responses of surface air temperature to land use/cover types with similar physical and chemical properties and biological processes have no significant difference. The surface air temperature would not react significantly until the intensity of land cover changes reach a certain degree. Within the same land use/cover type| areas in eastern China with intensive human activities exhibit larger warming trend. The results provide observational evidence for modeling research on the impact of land use/cover change on regional climate. Thus| projecting further surface climate of China in regional scale should not only take greenhouse gas increase into account| but also consider the impact of land use/cover types and land cover change. 899,2009,4,4,Sequencing and de novo analysis of a coral larval transcriptome using 454 GSFlx,Background: New methods are needed for genomic-scale analysis of emerging model organisms that exemplify important biological questions but lack fully sequenced genomes. For example| there is an urgent need to understand the potential for corals to adapt to climate change| but few molecular resources are available for studying these processes in reef-building corals. To facilitate genomics studies in corals and other non-model systems| we describe methods for transcriptome sequencing using 454| as well as strategies for assembling a useful catalog of genes from the output. We have applied these methods to sequence the transcriptome of planulae larvae from the coral Acropora millepora. Results: More than 600|000 reads produced in a single 454 sequencing run were assembled into similar to 40|000 contigs with five-fold average sequencing coverage. Based on sequence similarity with known proteins| these analyses identified similar to 11|000 different genes expressed in a range of conditions including thermal stress and settlement induction. Assembled sequences were annotated with gene names| conserved domains| and Gene Ontology terms. Targeted searches using these annotations identified the majority of genes associated with essential metabolic pathways and conserved signaling pathways| as well as novel candidate genes for stress-related processes. Comparisons with the genome of the anemone Nematostella vectensis revealed similar to 8|500 pairs of orthologs and similar to 100 candidate coral-specific genes. More than 30|000 SNPs were detected in the coral sequences| and a subset of these validated by re-sequencing. Conclusion: The methods described here for deep sequencing of the transcriptome should be widely applicable to generate catalogs of genes and genetic markers in emerging model organisms. Our data provide the most comprehensive sequence resource currently available for reef-building corals| and include an extensive collection of potential genetic markers for association and population connectivity studies. The characterization of the larval transcriptome for this widely-studied coral will enable research into the biological processes underlying stress responses in corals and evolutionary adaptation to global climate change. 9766,2009,3,2,SEQUESTERING CARBON IN SOILS OF ARID ECOSYSTEMS,Recent increase in atmospheric concentration Of CO(2) and decrease in land-based sink capacity are attributed to numerous anthropogenic activities including increase in severity and extent of soil degradation and desertification. There is a strong link between desertification and global warming with positive feedback of mutual reinforcement. The biophysical process is also driven by social| economic| political| and cultural factors Such as overgrazing by local Bedouin population. Soil carbon (C) sequestration| through conversion to a restorative land use and adoption of recommended management practices| is more in cooler than warmer and higher in wetter than drier climates| and larger in clayey than sandy soils. It ranges front 0 to 200 kg C ha(-1) y(-1) in soils of semi-arid climate to 200-500 kg ha(-1) y(-1) in those of sub-humid climates. The rates may range from negative to a high of 1500 kg ha(-1) y(-1). In contrast| the rate of SIC sequestration as secondary carbonates are low and range from 1.5 to 15 kg C ha(-1) y(-1). In addition to proven technologies (e.g.| low stocking rate| afforestaion| soil| and water conservation)| there are numerous opportunities for using the modern innovations involving nanotechnology| biotechnology| and information technology. Trading of C credits| through Kyoto's CDM or World Bank's BioCarbon Fund and other mechanisms| opens new opportunities for promoting the use of terrestrial sinks. In this regards| desertificd ecosystems in Africa/Asia and elsewhere may benefit through C-sequestration programs because rehabilitation of degraded lands is an urgent matter of global importance| Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 10010,2009,3,2,Sequestration of organic carbon in West African soils by Amenagement en Courbes de Niveau,A recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) report concludes that global warming| while already a global crisis| is likely to become even more devastating. The scientific consensus is that global warming is caused by increases in greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide. The Sahel of West Africa seems to be more adversely affected by such climate changes| leading to reduced and more sporadic rainfall. In addition| food security in the region is tenuous and fragile| due to adverse climate change| but also due to the historical mining of nutrients and carbon. With the adoption of the Kyoto accords| at least by some countries| sequestered carbon (C) has become a tradable commodity. This provides a double incentive to increase soil organic carbon in the C-depleted and degraded soils of West Africa-return C to improve soil quality and assist in removing CO(2) from the atmosphere to assist in mitigating climate change. A challenge| however| remains to determine which agricultural systems can actually sequester C. The technology called Amenagement en courbes de niveau (ACN)| which can be roughly translated as 'Ridge-tillage'| has given crop yield increases of 30 to 50%. To date| there has only been anecdotal evidence suggesting that Amenagement en courbes de niveau leads to increased soil organic C. The objectives of the study reported here were to determine whether the technology has the potential to sequester C in West African soils| and| if so| how much. In this study| soil organic C was measured by combustion methods in soils sampled at 0-20 and 20-40 cm depths in a series of experiments in Mali| Senegal and The Gambia. Soil organic C was measured in three very different types of experiments| all including Amenagement en courbes de niveau technology| resulting in three methods of measuring C sequestration. Our results indicate that the Amenagement en courbes de niveau technology significantly increased maize yields by 24% by weight in the Gambia experiment while soil organic C was increased by 26% in The Gambia| by 12% in Siguidolo| Mali| and by 14% in peanut systems of Nioro| Senegal. These increases in soil organic C are likely due to three factors: (1) reduced erosion and movement of soil| (2) increased crop growth resulting from the greater capture of rainfall| and (3) increased growth and density of shrubs and trees resulting from the increased subsoil water| resulting in turn from the increased capture of rainfall| and reduced runoff. Measuring soil C on fields that were successively placed under Amenagement en courbes de niveau management and the use of replicated experimental plots appear to be the best methods to quantify the C sequestration potential of the practice. These results indicate that this soil and water conservation technology not only harvests water and increases food production| but also increases soil organic carbon. This technology thus is a successful technique to sequester C in soils and if carried out in a large region may both offset CO(2) emissions and help mitigate climate change. 9341,2009,2,4,Seventy Years of Understory Development by Elevation Class in a New Hampshire Mixed Forest: Management Implications,New England forest managers are faced with numerous environmental issues| such as global warming| nutrient depletion| and species declines that could influence the choice of appropriate silvicultural techniques and objectives. On the Bartlett Experimental Forest| New Hampshire| 70 years of change on more than 400 remeasured cruise plots by elevation classes ranging from 600 to 2|700 ft showed no evidence of environmental impacts. The major| and only dominant| agent of change was natural succession. Time-tested silvicultural approaches remain valid. 9401,2009,5,4,Seventy-five-million-year-old tropical tetra-like fish from Canada tracks Cretaceous global warming,Newly discovered fossil fish material from the Cretaceous Dinosaur Park Formation of Alberta| Canada| documents the presence of a tropical fish in this northern area about 75 million years ago (Ma). The living relatives of this fossil fish| members of the Characiformes including the piranha and neon tetras| are restricted to tropical and subtropical regions| being limited in their distribution by colder temperatures. Although characiform fossils are known from Cretaceous through to Cenozoic deposits| none has been reported previously from North America. The modern distribution of characiforms in Mexico and southern Texas in the southernmost United States is believed to have been the result of a relatively recent colonization less than 12 Ma. The new Canadian fossils document the presence of these fish in North America in the Late Cretaceous| a time of significantly warmer global temperatures than now. Global cooling after this time apparently extirpated them from the northern areas and these fishes only survived in more southern climes. The lack of early Cenozoic characiform fossils in North America suggests that marine barriers prevented recolonization during warmer times| unlike in Europe where Eocene characiform fossils occur during times of global warmth. 10088,2009,3,2,Severn Barrage tidal power project: implications for carbon emissions,UK Government encouragement of the Severn Barrage project has regard for the fact that this is by far the largest single source of renewable energy available to the United Kingdom. A major concern for all forms of electricity generation is their effects of carbon emissions and| as a result which is now generally recognised| on global warming. The present paper makes use of published sources of carbon emissions data to estimate the carbon content of each of the operations required to produce| transport| construct| operate and decommission this barrage if it is located and designed as set out in 1989. The approach adopted here is based on estimating the ratio of the life-cycle carbon emissions demand of the scheme (gCO(2)) relative to its energy output (kW) over an assumed lifetime| this to include expected plant replacements over that period. 10182,2009,3,2,Sewage irrigation increased methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice paddies in southeast China,Greenhouse gas emissions from rice paddies under sewage irrigation deserve much attention since domestic sewage effluents are increasingly used for agriculture in developing countries. A field experiment was conducted to simultaneously measure methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from rice (Oryza sativa L.) paddies under sewage and unpolluted river water irrigation in southeast China. The rice paddies were under a local typical water regime| which was characterized by flooding-midseason drainage-reflooding-moist intermittent irrigation but without water logging. Relative to unpolluted river water irrigation| sewage irrigation significantly increased CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from rice paddies. Seasonal fluxes of CH(4) averaged 1.51 Mg m(-2) h(-1) for the plots irrigated by river water and 1.92 Mg m(-2) h(-1) for the plots irrigated by sewage. In contrast with river water irrigation| sewage irrigation increased CH(4) by 27% and 33% for paddy plots with and without chemical N addition| respectively. Under sewage irrigation| seasonal fluxes of N(2)O-N averaged 26.79 mu g m(-2) h(-1) for the plots without N application and 74.07 mu g m(-1) h(-1) for the plots applied at the rate of 200 kg N ha(-1). Relative to river water irrigation| sewage irrigation increased N(2)O by 68% and 170% for the plots with and without N application| respectively. The direct emission factor of fertilizer N for N(2)O was estimated to be 0.71% for the rice paddies under sewage irrigation and 0.52% for the plots irrigated by river water. Besides direct N(2)O emissions| N input by sewage irrigation induced substantial indirect N(2)O emission from rice paddies. The results of the net GWPs from CH(4) and N(2)O indicate that sewage irrigation would intensify the radiative forcing of rice paddies with midseason drainage and moist irrigation. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 784,2009,2,4,Sex-specific differences in cardiac control and hematology of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) approaching their spawning grounds,Some male salmonids (e. g.| rainbow trout) display profound cardiovascular adjustments during sexual maturation| including cardiac growth and hypertension| and tachycardia has been observed in free-ranging male salmonids near their spawning grounds. In the present study| we investigated cardiac control| dorsal aortic blood pressure| cardiac morphometrics| and hematological variables in wild| sexually maturing sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) with a particular aim to decipher any sex-specific differences. Routine heart rate (f(H)) was significantly higher in females (52 vs. 43 beats/min)| which was due to significantly lower cholinergic tone (28 vs. 46%)| because there were no differences in adrenergic tone or intrinsic heart rate between sexes. No differences in blood pressure were observed despite males possessing an 11% greater relative ventricular mass. Concomitant with higher routine heart rates| female sockeye had significantly higher levels of cortisol| testosterone| and 17 beta-estradiol| whereas the level of 11-ketotestosterone was higher in males. There were no differences in hematocrit or hemoglobin concentration between the sexes. The findings of this study highlight the importance of considering sex as a variable in research fields such as conservation biology and when modeling the consequences of local and global climate change. Indeed| this study helps to provide a mechanistic basis for the significantly higher rates of female mortality observed in previous studies of wild-caught sockeye salmon.
10261,2009,3,3,SF(6) Pyrolysis Decomposition in N(2) or O(2) Bath Gas and the Influence of H(2)O Addition,To develop SF(6) decomposition technology which will contribute to the prevention of global warming| we investigated the decomposition of dilute SF(6) in N(2)| O(2) and Ar+H(2)O. Reaction parameters such as rate constants and activation energies of SF(6) decomposition were evaluated. SF(6) decomposition was found to be a first-order reaction in N(2)| O(2) and Ar+H(2)O bath gas. Apparent activation energies of SF(6) decomposition were 386 and 446 kJ.mol(-1) for N(2) and O(2) bath gas respectively. When H(2)O was added to Ar from 50 to 1000 ppm| the activation energies were 310+/-10 kJ.mol(-1). Mass spectrum analysis of the decomposition components in SF(6)+O(2) gas mixture at 1373 K revealed the presence of SO| SO(2)| SOF| SO(2)F| SOF(2) and SO(2)F(2). 9624,2009,2,4,Shading reduces coral-disease progression,The growing incidence of tropical-marine diseases is attributed to increases in pathogen prevalence and virulence associated with global warming. Additionally| the compromised-host hypothesis suggests that rising ocean temperatures may increase disease activity by making the corals more susceptible to ubiquitous pathogens. We tested the effects of reducing irradiance stress on coral-disease progression rates by shading corals showing signs consistent with white-plague disease. Our results showed that white-plague disease on shaded corals progressed significantly more slowly than on controls. Although the mechanisms are unknown| this study suggests that light intensity influences the rate of coral-disease progression. 9574,2009,2,3,Shallow groundwater temperature response to climate change and urbanization,Groundwater temperatures| especially in shallow (quaternary) aquifers respond to ground surface temperatures which in turn depend on climate and land use. Groundwater temperatures| therefore| are modified by climate change and urban development. In northern temperate climate regions seasonal temperature cycles penetrate the ground to depths on the order of 10-15 m. In this paper| we develop and apply analytic heat transfer relationships for 1-D unsteady effective diffusion of heat through an unsaturated zone into a flowing aquifer a short distance below the ground surface. We estimate how changes in land use (urban development) and climate change may affect shallow groundwater temperatures. We consider both long-term trends and seasonal cycles in surface temperature changes. Our analysis indicates that a fully urbanized downtown area at the latitude of Minneapolis/St. Paul is likely to have a groundwater temperature that is nearly 3 degrees C warmer than an undeveloped agricultural area at the same geographic location. Pavements are the main cause of this change. Data collected by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) in the St. Cloud| MN area confirm that land use influences groundwater temperatures. Ground surface temperatures are also projected to rise in response to global warming. In the extreme case of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (2 X CO(2) climate scenario)| groundwater temperatures in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area could therefore rise by up to 4 degrees C. Compounding a land use change from "undeveloped" to "fully urbanized" and a 2 x CO(2) climate scenario| groundwater temperatures are projected to rise by about 5 degrees C at the latitude of Minneapolis/St. Paul. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9402,2009,2,4,Shifting latitudinal clines in avian body size correlate with global warming in Australian passerines,Intraspecific latitudinal clines in the body size of terrestrial vertebrates| where members of the same species are larger at higher latitudes| are widely interpreted as evidence for natural selection and adaptation to local climate. These clines are predicted to shift in response to climate change. We used museum specimens to measure changes in the body size of eight passerine bird species from south-eastern Australia over approximately the last 100 years. Four species showed significant decreases in body size (1.8-3.6% of wing length) and a shift in latitudinal cline over that period| and a meta-analysis demonstrated a consistent trend across all eight species. Southern high-latitude populations now display the body sizes typical of more northern populations pre-1950| equivalent to a 78 shift in latitude. Using ptilochronology| we found no evidence that these morphological changes were a plastic response to changes in nutrition| a likely non-genetic mechanism for the pattern observed. Our results demonstrate a generalized response by eight avian species to some major environmental change over the last 100 years or so| probably global warming. 10209,2009,2,4,Shifts in walnut (Juglans regia L.) phenology due to increasing temperatures in Slovenia,Bud-breaking date (BBD) is one of the most important traits in walnut cultivars for commercial cultivation. In regions with frequent late-Spring frost injuries| BBD affects the stability| quantity| and quality of walnut yield. Due to global warming| shifts in walnut phenology are expected in the future| and the suitability of some cultivars for certain climatic regions may be affected. In the present study| the influence of increasing Winter and Spring air temperatures on BBD was analysed. The late BBD cultivar 'Franquette' and the medium BBD cultivar 'G-1.39' were observed over two time-periods: 1984-1990 (P1)| and 2000-2006 (P2). During P1| the mean air temperature from January to April was 3.7 degrees C| and the average BBDs were 23 April and 5 May for 'G-139' and 'Franquette'| respectively. During P2| the mean air temperature from January to April increased by 0.9 degrees C and the BBDs were 3 days (d) earlier for 'G-139' and 7 d earlier for 'Franquette'. Phenological models showed that the mean air temperatures in the preceding 1-2 months (T(Mar) and T(Apr)) were important for predicting BBD and| due to increasing temperatures in Winter and early-Spring| BBDs will be shifted to earlier in the year. Depending on walnut cultivar| the average BBD could be advanced by as much as 4 weeks by 2060. Consequently| the frost hazard will probably increase. 9459,2009,3,4,Shock Waves in Supersonic Two-Phase Flow of CO(2) in Converging-Diverging Nozzles,CO(2) is a promising alternative to hazardous| ozone-depleting and global-warming refrigerants. It is more suitable to the ejector refrigeration cycle than to the vapor compression cycle. However| shock waves significantly reduce the efficiency of the ejector nozzle and| therefore| they must be investigated to improve the efficiencies of the nozzle and the ejector and the coefficient of performance of the ejector refrigeration cycle. This paper elucidates the types of shock waves in two-phase flow Of CO(2) in converging-diverging nozzles and their relationship to inlet conditions and two-phase thermodynamic states. Shock waves in supersonic liquid-vapor flows with low and medium quality through the diverging sections of the nozzles were investigated. Strong- and thin-equilibrium shock waves were calculated and considered as the ideal limiting case of actual shock waves. Pseudo-shock waves and dispersed shock waves were obtained from the experiment. Both were weaker than the equilibrium shock waves and indicated relaxation phenomena. Based on a theoretical model| the pseudo-shock waves had long relaxation times. The large liquid droplets formed could not be easily decelerated by the vapor. Conversely| the dispersed shock waves had short relaxation times. The small liquid droplets formed could be easily decelerated by the vapor| but the deceleration was less rapid than that in the equilibrium shock waves. 10014,2009,2,4,Short-term responses of phenology| shoot growth and leaf traits of four alpine shrubs in a timberline ecotone to simulated global warming| Eastern Tibetan Plateau| China,The short-term effects of artificial warming on phenology| growth and leaf traits were investigated in four alpine shrubs using the open-top chamber (OTC) method in a timberline ecotone (3240 m a.s.l.) on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau. The OTC enhanced the mean air temperature by 2.9 degrees C throughout the growing season. In contrast| only a slight difference (0.4 degrees C) in the mean soil temperature was observed in the OTC compared with the control plots (CP). Spiraea mongolica| Potentilla fruticosa| Conicera hispida (deciduous shrubs) and Daphne retusa (evergreen shrub) showed earlier bud break| flowering and fruit coloring as well as longer flower longevity in the OTC than in the CP. All deciduous shrubs in the OTC had a longer leaf lifespan. Daphne retusa had higher leaf survival rates in the OTC. No significant differences in the total number of flowers and fruits were noticed for most species between the two treatments. Warming stimulated the shoot and leaf growth for most species. The specific leaf area tended to increase for many species in the OTC. However| the leaf nitrogen concentration tended to decrease in P. fruticosa and S. mongolica. The results obtained in the present study indicate that warming conditions can have strong impacts on alpine shrubs in a timberline ecotone. 10149,2009,4,4,Shrub yield and fodder quality variations in a non-tropical dryland environment in West Asia,Integration of shrubs into the smallholder crop-rangeland-livestock farming systems in non-tropical dry areas could reduce feed gaps| rangeland degradation and desertification| but data on yield and fodder quality of most native and exotic shrubs are scanty. The study aimed at identifying shrubs for dryland agroforestry based on agronomic and fodder quality attributes. Fodder and wood yield| percent fodder (FBR) and fodder quality of 26 non-legume shrubs were determined from 6 to 8 months regrowth in north-west Syria. Seed yield was estimated from plants that were not cut. Fodder (31-87 Mg DM ha(-1))| wood (16-2064 Mg DM ha(-1)) and seed (0-132 Mg DM ha(-1)) yield| FBR (24-87%)| fodder concentrations of crude protein (69-195 g kg(-1).)| acid detergent lignin (ADL) (24-109 g kg(-1))| acid detergent fiber (ADF) (102-267 g kg(-1))| neutral detergent fiber (NDF) (214-526 g kg(-1))| in vitro organic matter digestibility (IVOMD) (391-526 g kg(-1))| and in vitro gas production after 24 h of incubation (25-39 ml 200 mg(-1) DM) varied (P<0.05) among the shrubs. Atriplex halimus- halimus and A. herba- alba from Spain| A. canescens| A. ploycarpa and A. lentiformis from USA| A. halimus and A. herba-alba from Syria and A. nummularia from Australia and South Africa had greater potential for development of dryland agroforestry technologies. The promising shrubs could be integrated into the rangeland-crop-livestock systems in non-tropical dryland environs to provide fodder| fuel-wood| shade| medicine| stabilize sand-dunes| and sequester carbon; thereby contributing to mitigation of rangeland degradation and global warming; if major constraints to adoption of fodder trees such as agronomic problems| low multipurpose value| land shortage and quality seed supply could be overcome. 10189,2009,5,3,Siberian gas venting and the end-Permian environmental crisis,The end of the Permian period is marked by global warming and the biggest known mass extinction on Earth. The crisis is commonly attributed to the formation of the Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province although the causal mechanisms remain disputed. We show that heating of Tunguska Basin sediments by the ascending magma played a key role in triggering the crisis. Our conclusions are based on extensive field work in Siberia in 2004 and 2006. Heating of organic-rich shale and petroleum bearing evaporites around sill intrusions led to greenhouse gas and halocarbon generation in sufficient volumes to cause global warming and atmospheric ozone depletion. Basin scale gas production potential estimates show that metamorphism of organic matter and petroleum could have generated > 100|000 Gt CO(2). The gases were released to the end-Permian atmosphere partly through spectacular pipe structures with kilometre-sized craters. Dating of a sill intrusion by the U-Pb method shows that the gas release occurred at 252.0 +/- 0.4 million years ago| overlapping in time with the end-Permian global warming and mass extinction. Heating experiments to 275 degrees C on petroleum-bearing rock salt from Siberia suggests that methyl chloride and methyl bromide were significant components of the erupted gases. The results indicate that global warming and ozone depletion were the two main drivers for the end-Permian environmental crisis. We demonstrate that the composition of the heated sedimentary rocks below the flood basalts is the most important factor in controlling whether a Large Igneous Provinces causes an environmental crisis or not. We propose that a similar mechanism could have been responsible for the Triassic-Jurassic (similar to 200 Ma) global warming and mass extinction| based on the presence of thick sill intrusions in the evaporite deposits of the Amazon Basin in Brazil. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 752,2009,5,4,Significance of the trace fossil Zoophycos in Pliocene deposits| Antarctic continental margin (ANDRILL 1B drill core),Zoophycos is a complex three dimensional trace fossil that is abundant in deep ocean sediments worldwide| but has not been described previously from Cenozoic continental margin deposits of Antarctica. In the ANDRILL 1B core drilled through the north-west McMurdo ice shelf| Zoophycos occurs in a 17 m thick unit of interglacial sediments bounded above and below by glacial surfaces of erosion. This unit was deposited during the transition from the relatively warm Early Pliocene characterized by productive open waters to the cooler Late Pliocene with fluctuating subpolar ice sheets. Globally| Late Cenozoic Zooplaycos are most abundant at great depths (> 1000 m)| and where sedimentation rates and TOC levels are low; the Zoophycos producer| probably a worm-like animal| was (is) a slow colonizer. Application of these preferences to the ANDRILL 1 B core indicates that the Zoophycos-bearing unit was deposited episodically| with sufficient time between events to allow for the slow processes of colonization and construction. The foray of Zoophycos producer into the relatively shallow ANDRILL I B depths (200-1000 m) during the Pliocene documents "emergence" of benthic animals| supporting suggestions that the unique modern Antarctic and Southern Ocean faunas result from both "emergence" and "submergence" during the Cenozoic. 9299,2009,2,3,Simulated response of North Pacific Mode Waters to global warming,This study investigates the response of the Mode Waters in the North Pacific to global warming based on a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models. Solutions between a present-day climate and a future| warmer climate are compared. Under the warmer climate scenario| the Mode Waters are produced on lighter isopycnal surfaces and are significantly weakened in terms of their formation and evolution. These changes are due to a more stratified upper ocean and thus a shoaling of the winter mixing depth resulting mainly from a reduction of the ocean-to-atmosphere heat loss over the subtropical region. The basin-wide wind stress may adjust the Mode Waters indirectly through its impact on the surface heat flux and subduction process. Citation: Luo| Y.| Q. Liu| and L. M. Rothstein (2009)| Simulated response of North Pacific Mode Waters to global warming| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L23609| doi: 10.1029/2009GL040906. 10051,2009,3,3,Simulating age-related changes in carbon storage and allocation in a Chinese fir plantation growing in southern China using the 3-PG model,Chinese fir [(Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook (Taxodiaceae)] plantations are helping to meet China's increasing demands for timber| while| at the same time| sequestering carbon (C) above and belowground. The latter function is important as a means of slowing the rate that CO(2) is increasing in the atmosphere. Available data are limited| however| and even if extensive| would necessitate consideration of future changes in climatic conditions and management practices. To evaluate the contribution of Chinese fir plantations under a range of changing conditions a dynamic model is required. In this paper| we report successful outcome in parameterizing a process-based model (3-PG) and validating its predictions with recent and long-term field measurements acquired from different ages of Chinese fir plantations at the Huitong National Forest Ecosystem Research Station. Once parameterized| the model performed well when simulating leaf area index (LAI)| net primary productivity (NPP)| biomass of stems (W(S))| foliage (W(F)) and roots (W(R))| litterfall| and shifts in allocation over a period of time. Although the model does not specifically include heterotrophic respiration| we made some attempts to estimate changes in root C storage and decomposition rates in the litterfall pool as well as in the total soil respiration. Total C stored in biomass increased rapidly| peaking at age 21 years in unthinned stands. The predicted averaged above and belowground NNP (13.81 t ha(-1) a(-1)) of the Chinese fir plantations between the modeling period (from 4 to 21-year-old) is much higher than that of Chinese forests (4.8-6.22 t ha(-1) a(-1))| indicating that Chinese fir is a suitable tree species to grow for timber while processing the potential to act as a C sequestration sink. Taking into account that maximum LAI occurs at the age of 15 years| intermediate thinning and nutrient supplements should| according to model predictions| further increase growth and C storage in Chinese fir stands. Predicted future increases (approximately 0-2 degrees C) in temperature due to global warming may increase plantation growth and reduce the time required to complete a rotation| but further increases (approximately 2-6 degrees C) may reduce the growth rate and prolong the rotational age. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10207,2009,2,3,Simulation of climate-change scenarios to explain Usutu-virus dynamics in Austria,The emergence and spread of infectious diseases in mid-latitudes| so far mainly observed in the tropics| considerably increase under the current situation of climate change. A recent example is the Usutu virus (USUV) outbreak in Austria. USUV is closely related to the West Nile virus in the U.S. and caused mass mortalities mainly of blackbirds (Turdus merula). The USUV flavivirus persists in a natural transmission cycle between vectors (mosquitoes) and host reservoirs (birds) and leads - once endemic in a population - to periodic outbreaks. In an epidemic model to explain the USUV dynamics in Austria 20012005| USUV dynamics were mainly determined by an interaction of bird immunity and environmental temperature. To investigate future scenarios| we entered temperature predictions from five global climate models into the USUV model and also considered four different climate-warming scenarios defined by the I ntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| IPCC (20 different model-scenario combinations). We downscaled the 20 time series of predicted temperatures (through the year 2100) to represent the region around Vienna. Our simulations predict that USUV will persist in the host population after the epidemic peak observed in 2003. USUV-specific annual blackbird-mortality time series predict that the outbreak frequency increases successively from the beginning to the end of the century. Simulations of worst-case scenarios result in an endemic equilibrium with a decline of the blackbird population of about 24%. Additionally we calculated the annually averaged basic reproduction number for the period 1901-2100. The latter depict that undetected major outbreaks before 2000 were unlikely| whereas it is likely that the USUV becomes endemic after 2040. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 875,2009,3,3,Simulation of global warming potential (GWP) from rice fields in the Tai-Lake region| China by coupling 1:50|000 soil database with DNDC model,Quantifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wetland ecosystems is a relatively new issue in global climate change studies. China has approximately 22% of the world's rice paddies and 38% of the world's rice production| which are crucial to accurately estimate the global warming potential (GWP) at regional scale. This paper reports an application of a biogeochemical model (DeNitrification and DeComposition or DNDC) for quantifying GWP from rice fields in the Tai-Lake region of China. For this application| DNDC is linked to a 1:50|000 soil database| which was derived from 1107 paddy soil profiles compiled during the Second National Soil Survey of China in the 1980-1990s. The simulated results show that the 2.34 Mha of paddy soil cultivated in rice-wheat rotation in the Tai-Lake region emitted about -1.48 Tg C| 0.84 Tg N and 5.67 Tg C as CO(2)| N(2)O| and CH(4) respectively| with a cumulative GWP of 565 Tg CO(2) equivalent from 1982 to 2000. As for soil subgroups| the highest GWP (26|900 kg CO(2) equivalent ha(-1) yr(-1)) was linked to gleyed paddy soils accounting for about 4.4% of the total area of paddy soils. The lowest GWP (5370 kg CO(2) equivalent ha(-1) yr(-1)) was associated with submergenic paddy soils accounting for about 0.32% of the total area of paddy soils. The most common soil in the area was hydromorphic paddy soils| which accounted for about 53% of the total area of paddy soils with a GWP of 12|300 kg CO(2) equivalent ha(-1) yr(-1). On a regional basis| the annual averaged GWP in the polder| Tai-Lake plain| and alluvial plain soil regions was distinctly higher than that in the low mountainous and Hilly soil regions. As for administrative areas| the average annual GWP of counties in Shanghai city was high. Conversely| the average annual GWP of counties in Jiangsu province was low. The high variability in soil properties throughout the Tai-Lake region is important and affects the net greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore| the use of detailed soil data sets with high-resolution digital soil maps is essential to improve the accuracy of GWP estimates with process-based models at regional and national scales. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9790,2009,3,3,SIMULATION OF METHANE EMISSIONS FROM DAIRY FARMS TO ASSESS GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION STRATEGIES,As a sector| agriculture is reported to be the second greatest contributor to atmospheric methane (CH(4)) in the U.S.| emitting 31% of the total emission. Primary sources of CH(4) on dairy farms are the animals and manure storage| with smaller contributions front field-applied manure| feces deposited by grazing animals| and manure on. barn floors. The Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) was expanded to include simulation of CH(4) emissions from all farm sources along with modules predicting other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The new CH(4) module incorporated previously published relationships and experimental data that were consistent with our modeling objectives and the current structure of IFSM. When used to simulate previously reported experiments| the model was found to predict enteric fermentation and slurry manure storage emissions similar to those measured. In simulating a representative 100-cow dairy farm in Pennsylvania| the model predicted a total average annual emission of 21 Mg CH(4). This included annual emissions of 142 kg CH(4) per cow from the Holstein herd and 6.4 kg CH(4) per m(3) of slurry manure in storage| which were consistent with previously summarized emission data. To illustrate the use of the expanded whole farm model| potential CH(4) reduction strategies were evaluated. Farm simulations showed that increasing the production and use of forage (corn silage) in animal diets increased CH(4) emission by 16% with little impact on the global warming potential of the net farm emission of all GHGs. Use of grazing along with high forage diets reduced net farm GHG emission by 16%. Using an enclosed manure storage and burning the captured biogas reduced farm emission of CH(4) by 32% with a 24% reduction in the net farm emission of GHG. Incorporation of GHG emission modules in IFSM provides a tool for estimating whole farm emissions of CH(4) and evaluating proposed reduction strategies along with their impact on net GHG emission and other environmental and economic measures. 10121,2009,5,3,Simulation of the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum,Proxy data constraining land and ocean surface paleo-temperatures indicate that the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum (MMCO)| a global warming event at similar to 15 Ma| had a global annual mean surface temperature of 18.4 degrees C| about 3 degrees C higher than present and equivalent to the warming predicted for the next century. We apply the latest National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model CAM3.1 and Land Model CLM3.0 coupled to a slab ocean to examine sensitivity of MMCO climate to varying ocean heat fluxes derived from paleo sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations| using detailed reconstructions of Middle Miocene boundary conditions including paleogeography| elevation| vegetation and surface temperatures. Our model suggests that to maintain MMCO warmth consistent with proxy data| the required atmospheric CO(2) concentration is about 460-580 ppmv| narrowed from the most recent estimate of 300-600 ppmv. Citation: You| Y.| M. Huber| R. D. Muller| C. J. Poulsen| and J. Ribbe ( 2009)| Simulation of the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L04702| doi: 10.1029/2008GL036571. 935,2009,2,3,Simulations of frequency| intensity and tracks of cyclonic disturbances in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea,The paper presents the results of simulation experiments conducted for the assessment of likely changes in the cyclogenesis pattern in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the Arabian Sea (AS) resulting from global climate change. Two experiments were performed| namely the 'control' (CTL) experiment in which the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere was fixed as per 1990 levels and the 'greenhouse gas' (GHG) experiment in which an annual compound increase of 1% from 1990 onwards was introduced. CTL and GHG experiments of 20 years length were performed for the period 2041-2060. The model used is the regional climate model Had RM2 of the Hadley Centre of Climate Prediction and Research| U.K. The results have brought out some significant changes in the cyclogenesis pattern in the North Indian Ocean (BOB and AS). The most significant likely change is the increase in the frequency of post-monsoon storms in the Bay of Bengal. The experiments show an increase of about 50% in the post-monsoonal cyclogenesis by 2041-2060 as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The frequency of monsoon depressions / storms in the BOB is likely to decrease considerably during June-August. Due to varying impacts in different seasons| the annual frequency of cyclonic disturbances may change marginally in the BOB. In the Arabian Sea| however the model has simulated a significant reduction in the frequency which may be halved by the period 2041-2060. The results show intensification of storms during May-June and September-November. The monsoon depressions during July-August are likely to become less intense. In GHG experiment most of the post-monsoon storms have a tendency to strike north Andhra-Orissa coasts whereas in CTL experiment the storms strike coast from Tamilnadu to south Orissa. Thus| the focus of post-monsoon storms in the BOB is likely to shift northwards from Tamilnadu-Andhra Pradesh coast to north Andhra Pradesh-south Orissa coast. Another important simulated change in storm tracks is that more number of pre-monsoon storms in the BOB may have a tendency to recurve north or northeastwards by 2041-2060. 9348,2009,2,3,Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology| Interannual Variability| and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM,A global atmospheric model with roughly 50-km horizontal grid spacing is used to simulate the interannual variability of tropical cyclones using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as the lower boundary condition. The model's convective parameterization is based on a closure for shallow convection| with much of the deep convection allowed to occur on resolved scales. Four realizations of the period 1981-2005 are generated. The correlation of yearly Atlantic hurricane counts with observations is greater than 0.8 when the model is averaged over the four realizations| supporting the view that the random part of this annual Atlantic hurricane frequency (the part not predictable given the SSTs) is relatively small (< 2 hurricanes per year). Correlations with observations are lower in the east| west| and South Pacific (roughly 0.6| 0.5| and 0.3| respectively) and insignificant in the Indian Ocean. The model trends in Northern Hemisphere basin-wide frequency are consistent with the observed trends in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database. The model generates an upward trend of hurricane frequency in the Atlantic and downward trends in the east and west Pacific over this time frame. The model produces a negative trend in the Southern Hemisphere that is larger than that in the IBTrACS. The same model is used to simulate the response to the SST anomalies generated by coupled models in the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) archive| using the late-twenty-first century in the A1B scenario. Results are presented for SST anomalies computed by averaging over 18 CMIP3 models and from individual realizations from 3 models. A modest reduction of global and Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone frequency is obtained in each case| but the results in individual Northern Hemisphere basins differ among the models. The vertical shear in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) and the difference between the MDR SST and the tropical mean SST are well correlated with the model's Atlantic storm frequency| both for interannual variability and for the intermodel spread in global warming projections. 9598,2009,2,4,SLOWER TEMPO OF MICROEVOLUTION IN ISLAND BIRDS: IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY,Whether microevolution on small islands differs from that on larger landmasses is a key question in biology with substantial implications for species conservation. However| due to the difficulties faced in producing adequately replicated samples and in controlling for confounding variables| prior attempts to examine evolutionary questions relating to habitat area and population size have produced equivocal results. Here we show| using experimental design criteria that reduce the potential for such confounding| that bird species on larger landmasses have higher rates of molecular evolution. The study involves a global dataset of 48 independent contrasts for the cytochrome b gene encompassing all possible paired sister species comparisons (from seven orders and 17 families) that were available at the time of dataset assembly. A more rapid evolutionary tempo in larger areas has important ramifications for biodiversity conservation because it indicates a new imperative| beyond that of simply maintaining preexisting genetic diversity| for securing large areas for threatened species. This result suggests that the trend of confining species to limited refugia is likely to be slowing the tempo of microevolution. That effect might constrain the potential for adaptive shifts in response to changing environments such as those associated with global warming. 10301,2009,2,2,Small-scale plant species distribution in snowbeds and its sensitivity to climate change,Alpine snowbeds are characterized by a long-lasting snow cover and low soil temperature during the growing season. Both these key abiotic factors controlling plant life in snowbeds are sensitive to anthropogenic climate change and will alter the environmental conditions in snowbeds to a considerable extent until the end of this century. In order to name winners and losers of climate change among the plant species inhabiting snowbeds| we analyzed the small-scale species distribution along the snowmelt and soil temperature gradients within alpine snowbeds in the Swiss Alps. The results show that the date of snowmelt and soil temperature were relevant abiotic factors for small-scale vegetation patterns within alpine snowbed communities. Species richness in snowbeds was reduced to about 50% along the environmental gradients towards later snowmelt date or lower daily maximum temperature. Furthermore| the occurrence pattern of the species along the snowmelt gradient allowed the establishment of five species categories with different predictions of their distribution in a warmer world. The dominants increased their relative cover with later snowmelt date and will| therefore| lose abundance due to climate change| but resist complete disappearance from the snowbeds. The indifferents and the transients increased in species number and relative cover with higher temperature and will profit from climate warming. The snowbed specialists will be the most suffering species due to the loss of their habitats as a consequence of earlier snowmelt dates in the future and will be replaced by the avoiders of late-snowmelt sites. These forthcoming profiteers will take advantage from an increasing number of suitable habitats due to an earlier start of the growing season and increased temperature. Therefore| the characteristic snowbed vegetation will change to a vegetation unit dominated by alpine grassland species. The study highlights the vulnerability of the established snowbed vegetation to climate change and requires further studies particularly about the role of biotic interactions in the predicted invasion and replacement process. 9847,2009,2,3,Soil alteration due to erosion| ploughing and levelling of vineyards in north east Spain,Since the 1970s and 1980s| the vineyard areas in the Mediterranean region of north east Spain have undergone profound transformation to allow greater mechanization. This has involved land levelling| deep ploughing and the elimination of traditional soil conservation measures. Recently the EU Common Agricultural Policy encourages this through the vineyard restructuring and conversion plans (Commission Regulation EC No 1227/2000 of 31 May 2000) by subsidizing up to 50% of the cost of soil preparation such as soil movement and land levelling. A clear example of the problems that this causes is in the Penedes vineyard region (Catalonia| north east Spain)| and the present research analyses the changes in soil properties caused by erosion| deep ploughing and land levelling. The study was carried out in an area of 30 000 ha for which a Soil Information System at a scale of 1:50 000 was developed based on 394 field observations (89 soil profiles and 251 auger hole samples down to 120 cm). The results show that 74% of the described soil profiles are disturbed with evidence of soil mixing and/or profile truncation due to erosion| deep ploughing and/or land levelling. The evidence from the topsoils is mainly the presence of fragments of calcic or petrocalcic horizons| marls and sandstones. Other important properties for crops such as organic matter (OM) content and soil depth show statistically significant differences between disturbed soils and undisturbed soils (22.3-33.3% OM content depletion and 35.1% soil depth reduction). These results confirm that the soils of the region are significantly altered by mechanical operations which also influence soil erosion and contribute to global warming effect through depletion of soil OM. 966,2009,3,3,Soil carbon changes upon secondary succession in Imperata grasslands (East Kalimantan| Indonesia),Soil carbon changes upon secondary succession in Imperata grasslands are important both for their effect on potential production and for possible implications of forest degradation and regeneration on global climate change. We studied the effect of forest regeneration after fire in Imperata (speargrass) grasslands of East Kalimantan on soil properties| using 47 plots that last burned in 2004. 94 plots that last burned in 2003|126 plots last burned before 2003| 43 plots of secondary forest| and 28 plots of primary forest. Although soil carbon stocks increase upon natural regeneration from grassland to secondary forest| highest carbon stocks are found in the later regeneration phases and lowest under primary forest. This is contrary to the situation in other forest systems. Low C stocks under primary forests may be due to extremely low fertility| combined with shallow soils and low root mass in the topsoil. Root density-as observed in the field-is much higher under the grass vegetation. The effects of regeneration on soil are strongest in the A-horizon| where soil carbon content increases with 14%| from 14.5 g kg(-1) in Imperata grassland to 16.5 g kg(-1) in secondary forest| while carbon stocks in the A-horizon increase from 16.51 ton C ha(-1) to 18.70 ton C ha(-1). This is accompanied by a decrease in pH and an increase in bulk density. The total soil carbon stocks in Kalimantan (fixed mass| approximate depth section 40 cm) are 36.19 ton ha(-1) in Imperata grassland| 38.98 ton ha(-1) in secondary forest and 33.19 ton ha(-1) in primary forest| which is considerably lower than in Sumatra. Above-ground C/below-ground C ratios are higher in Kalimantan primary forest but lower in Kalimantan secondary forest than in Sumatra. Soil carbon stocks in Imperata grassland could be lower than previously thought. This has important consequences for carbon sequestration projects in East Kalimantan| because carbon storage potentials could be higher. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9899,2009,3,3,Soil carbon stock in relation to plant diversity of homegardens in Kerala| India,Conservation of biodiversity and mitigation of global warming are two major environmental challenges today. In this context| the relationship between biodiversity (especially plant diversity) and soil carbon (C) sequestration (as a means of mitigating global warming) has become a subject of considerable scientific interest. This relationship was tested for homegardens (HG)| a popular and sustainable agroforestry system in the tropics| in Thrissur district| Kerala| India. The major objectives were to examine how tree density and plant-stand characteristics of homegardens affect soil C sequestration. Soil samples were collected at four depths (0-20| 20-50| 50-80| 80-100 cm) from HG of varying sizes and age classes| and their total C content determined. Tree density and plant-stand characteristics such as species richness (Margalef Index) and diversity (Shannon Index) of the HG were also determined. Results indicated that the soil C stock was directly related to plant diversity of HG. Homegardens with higher| compared to those with lower| number of plant species| as well as higher species richness and tree density had higher soil carbon| especially in the top 50 cm of soil. Overall| within 1 m profile| soil C content ranged from 101.5 to 127.4 Mg ha(-1). Smaller-sized HG (< 0.4 ha) that had higher tree density and plant-species density had more soil C per unit area (119.3 Mg ha(-1)) of land than larger-sized ones (> 0.4 ha) (108.2 Mg ha(-1)). Soil C content| especially below 50 cm| was higher in older gardens. The enhanced soil-C storage in species-rich homegardens could have relevance and applications in broader ecological contexts. 9369,2009,3,4,Soil nitrous oxide emissions in long-term cover crops-based rotations under subtropical climate,It has been shown that cover crops can enhance soil nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions| but the magnitude of increase depends on the quantity and quality of the crop residues. Therefore| this study aimed to evaluate the effect of long-term (19 and 21 years) no-till maize crop rotations including grass [black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb)] and legume cover crops [vetch (Vigna sativa L)| cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp)| pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan L. Millsp.) and lablab (Dolichos lablab)] on annual soil N(2)O emissions in a subtropical Acrisol in Southern Brazil. Greater soil N(2)O emissions were observed in the first 45 days after the cover crop residue management in all crop rotations| varying from -20.2 +/- 1.9 to 163.9 +/- 24.3 mu g N m(-2) h(-1). Legume-based crop rotations had the largest cumulative emissions in this period| which were directly related to the quantity of N (r(2) = 0.60| p = 0.13)and inversely related to the lignin:N ratio(r(2) = 0.89|p = 0.01) of the cover crop residues. After this period| the mean fluxes were smaller and were closely related to the total soil N stocks (r(2) = 0.96| p = 0.002). The annual soil N(2)O emission represented 0.39-0.75% of the total N added by the legume cover crops. Management-control led soil variables such as mineral N (NO(3)(-) and NH(4)(+)) and dissolved organic C influenced more the N(2)O fluxes than environmental-related variables as water-filled pore space and air and soil temperature. Consequently| the synchronization between N mineralization and N uptake by plants seems to be the main challenge to reduce N(2)O emissions while maintaining the environmental and agronomic services provided by legume cover crops in agricultural systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9577,2009,2,4,Soil organic carbon contents of agricultural land in the Netherlands between 1984 and 2004,There is some debate about the likelihood that soil organic carbon (SOC) contents of agricultural land decreases because of global warming and governmental restrictions on animal manure application rates in some countries. Here| we report on changes in the mean SOC contents of the top soils (0-5 cm) of grassland and the top soil (0-25 cm) of arable land in the Netherlands during the period 1984-2004| using a data base with similar to 2 million results of SOC determinations from farmers' fields. The analyses were made for all agricultural land on mineral soils and for agricultural land in 9 regions with distinct differences in mean soil textures and SOC contents (marine and riverine clay| peaty clays| reclaimed peat soils| and Aeolian sand and loess)| and land uses (arable land and permanent grassland). Except for the regions with peaty clay and reclaimed peat soils| samples with SOC>125 g/kg were designated as peat and peaty soils and excluded from the analyses. Mean SOC content of soils under arable land in 2003 ranged from 13 to 22 g/kg for sand| loess and clay soils to 59 g/kg for reclaimed peat soils. Mean SOC content of soils under permanent grassland in 2003 ranged from 22 to 56 g/kg for sand and clay soils. The difference in mean SOC contents between grassland and arable land is in part related to the difference in sampling depth. Mean SOC contents of all mineral soils under grasslands and arable land tended to increase annually by 0.10 and 0.08 g/kg| respectively. We observed large differences in mean trends between regions. Regions with relatively low SOC contents tended to accrue C by up to 0.37 g/kg/year| while regions with relatively high SOC contents (e.g.| peaty clays) tended to lose C by up to 0.98 g/kg/year. In conclusion| mean SOC contents of the top part of mineral soils of agricultural land in most regions in the Netherlands tended to increase slightly during the period 1984-2004. This result contrasts with reports from e.g.| United Kingdom and Belgium that suggest decreasing C stocks in arable land possibly due to changes in land use and climate. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10070,2009,2,4,Soil organic carbon quality in forested mineral wetlands at different mean annual temperature,Forested mineral soil wetlands (FMSW) store large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC)| but little is known on: (i) whether the quality of SOC stored in these soils (proportion of active versus more resistant SOC compounds) differs from SOC in upland soils; (ii) how the quality of SOC in FMSW varies with mean annual temperature (MAT); and (iii) whether SOC decomposition rates in these environments respond to warming and drying more strongly than those observed in upland soils. To address this substantial knowledge gap| we identified nine FMSW and fifteen paired upland forest sites across three bioregions in North America (sub-alpine in Colorado; north-temperate in Minnesota; and south-temperate in South Carolina) to test the following three hypotheses. First| FMSW store a higher proportion of active SOC compared with upland systems because long anaerobic periods favor the accumulation of labile substrates. Second| in FMSW| SOC quality decreases from cold to warm bioregions because high quality detritus accumulates preferentially at cool sites where decomposition is slow. Finally| decomposition of SOC in FMSW will respond more strongly to warming under aerobic conditions than SOC from upland forest soils because of higher accumulation of active SOC in FMSW. To test these hypotheses| we incubated FMSW and upland forest soils at two constant temperatures (10 and 30 degrees C) for 525-d under aerobic conditions and constant moisture. In contrast to our first hypothesis| we observed similarly rapid depletion of active SOC compounds at initial stages of incubation across FMSW and upland sites| and across the 525-d incubations we observed overall lower SOC decomposition rates in our FMSW soils. In line with our second hypothesis| and across FMWS and upland soils| we found greater SOC loss in the sub-alpine bioregion than both temperate regions. In contrast to our last hypothesis| we found no difference in the temperature sensitivity (Q(10)) of SOC decomposition in FMSW and upland forest soils. Critically| total SOC loss (g SOC per g soil) was larger in FMSW because of the large amount of SOC stored in these ecosystems| indicating that despite a lack of difference between FMSW and upland responses| the total release of C from FMSW that could result from global warming may be large. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10110,2009,3,3,Soil quality impacts of residue removal for bioethanol production,Global energy demand of 424 EJ year(-1) in 2000 is increasing at the rate of 2.2% year(-1). There is a strong need to increase biofuel production because of the rising energy costs and the risks of global warming caused by fossil fuel combustion. Biofuels| being C-neutral and renewable energy sources| are an important alternative to fossil fuels. Therefore| identification of viable sources of biofuel feedstock is a high priority. Harvesting lignocellulosic crop residues| especially of cereal crops| is being considered by industry as one of the sources of biofuel feedstocks. Annual production of lignocellulosic residues of cereals is estimated at 367 million Mg year(-1) (75% of the total) for the U.S.| and 2800 million Mg year(-1) (74.6% of the total) for the world. The energy value of the residue is 16 x 10(6)| BTU Mg(-1). However| harvesting crop residues would have strong adverse impact on soil quality. Returning crop residues to soil as amendments is essential to: (a) recycling plant nutrients (20-60 kg of N| P| K| Ca per Mg of crop residues) amounting to 118 million Mg of N| P| K in residues produced annually in the world (83.5% of world's fertilizer consumption)| (b) sequestering soil C at the rate of 100-1000 kg C ha(-1) year(-1) depending on soil type and climate with a total potential of 0.6-1.2 Pg C year(-1) in world soils| (c) improving soil structure| water retention and transmission properties| (d) enhancing activity and species diversity of soil fauna| (e) improving water infiltration rate| (f) controlling water runoff and minimizing risks of erosion by water and wind| (g) conserving water in the root zone| and (h) sustaining agronomic productivity by decreasing losses and increasing use efficiency of inputs. Thus| harvesting crop residues as biofuel feedstock would jeopardize soil and water resources which are already under great stress. Biofuel feedstock must be produced through biofuel plantations established on specifically identified soils which do not compete with those dedicated to food crop production. Biofuel plantations| comprising of warm season grasses (e.g.| switch grass)| short rotation woody perennials (e.g.| poplar) and herbaceous species (e.g.| miscanthus) must be established on agriculturally surplus/marginal soils or degraded/desertified soils. Plantations established on such soils would restore degraded ecosystems| enhance soil/terrestrial C pool| improve water resources and produce biofuel feedstocks. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 973,2009,2,4,Soils and the soil cover as witnesses and indicators of global climate change,Soils and the soil cover are witnesses to global changes on the planet; moreover| they play an active role in these changes. Investigations into the role of soils in global processes come to forefront of modern soil science; it is necessary to find appropriate criteria and indicators making it possible to diagnose global environmental changes and to assess their contribution to soil formation. 10249,2009,4,4,Solar activity and the mean global temperature,The variation with time from 1956 to 2002 of the globally averaged rate of ionization produced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere is deduced and shown to have a cyclic component of period roughly twice the 11 year solar cycle period. Long term variations in the global average surface temperature as a function of time since 1956 are found to have a similar cyclic component. The cyclic variations are also observed in the solar irradiance and in the mean daily sun spot number. The cyclic variation in the cosmic ray rate is observed to be delayed by 2-4 years relative to the temperature| the solar irradiance and daily sun spot variations suggesting that the origin of the correlation is more likely to be direct solar activity than cosmic rays. Assuming that the correlation is caused by such solar activity| we deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed to this activity is less than or similar to 14% of the observed global warming. 9726,2009,4,4,Solar trends and global warming,We use a suite of global climate model simulations for the 20th century to assess the contribution of solar forcing to the past trends in the global mean temperature. In particular| we examine how robust different published methodologies are at detecting and attributing solar-related climate change in the presence of intrinsic climate variability and multiple forcings. We demonstrate that naive application of linear analytical methods such as regression gives nonrobust results. We also demonstrate that the methodologies used by Scafetta and West (2005| 2006a| 2006b| 2007| 2008) are not robust to these same factors and that their error bars are significantly larger than reported. Our analysis shows that the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 +/- 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980. 9545,2009,2,4,Solar UVB and warming affect decomposition and earthworms in a fen ecosystem in Tierra del Fuego| Argentina,Combined effects of co-occurring global climate changes on ecosystem responses are generally poorly understood. Here| we present results from a 2-year field experiment in a Carex fen ecosystem on the southernmost tip of South America| where we examined the effects of solar ultraviolet B (UVB| 280-315 nm) and warming on above- and belowground plant production| C : N ratios| decomposition rates and earthworm population sizes. Solar UVB radiation was manipulated using transparent plastic filter films to create a near-ambient (90% of ambient UVB) or a reduced solar UVB treatment (15% of ambient UVB). The warming treatment was imposed passively by wrapping the same filter material around the plots resulting in a mean air and soil temperature increase of about 1.2 degrees C. Aboveground plant production was not affected by warming| and marginally reduced at near-ambient UVB only in the second season. Aboveground plant biomass also tended to have a lower C : N ratio under near-ambient UVB and was differently affected at the two temperatures (marginal UVB x temperature interaction). Leaf decomposition of one dominant sedge species (Carex curta) tended to be faster at near-ambient UVB than at reduced UVB. Leaf decomposition of a codominant species (Carex decidua) was significantly faster at near-ambient UVB; root decomposition of this species tended to be lower at increased temperature and interacted with UVB. We found| for the first time in a field experiment that epigeic earthworm density and biomass was 36% decreased by warming but remained unaffected by UVB radiation. Our results show that present-day solar UVB radiation and modest warming can adversely affect ecosystem functioning and engineers of this fen. However| results on plant biomass production also showed that treatment manipulations of co-occurring global change factors can be overridden by the local climatic situation in a given study year. 977,2009,3,3,Solid-fuel household cook stoves: Characterization of performance and emissions,In this study| 14 solid-fuel household cook stove and fuel combinations| including 10 stoves and four fuels| were tested for performance and pollutant emissions using a WBT (Water Boiling Test) protocol. Results from the testing showed that some stoves currently used in the field have improved fuel efficiency and lower pollutant emissions compared with traditional cooking methods. Stoves with smaller-mass components exposed to the heat of fuel combustion tended to take lesser time to boil| have better fuel efficiency| and lower pollutant emissions. The challenge is to design stoves with smaller-mass components that also have acceptable durability| affordable cost| and meet user needs. Results from this study provide stove performance and emissions information to practitioners disseminating stove technology in the field. This information may be useful for improving the design of existing stoves and for developing new stove designs. Comparison of results between laboratories shows that results can be replicated between labs when the same stove and fuel are tested using the WBT protocol. Recommendations were provided to improve the ability to replicate results between labs. implications of better solid-fuel cook stoves are improved human health| reduced fuel use| reduced deforestation| and reduced global climate change. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 9692,2009,3,4,Solubility of Carbon Dioxide in Pentaerythritol Tetrabutyrate (PEC4) and Comparison with Other Linear Chained Pentaerythritol Tetraalkyl Esters,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is one of the most promising natural refrigerants that can be employed as an alternative to hydrofluorocarbons (HFC)| due to its low global warming potential (GWP). Nevertheless| CO(2) presents several technical problems when employed as a working fluid in refrigeration systems. In particular| the selection of the most suitable lubricant for each application is far from being resolved. The thermodynamic behavior of a CO(2)+lubricant system must be well-known for a correct oil selection. This work is part of a research project to study the solubility of CO(2) in commercial oils and their precursors. Here| solubility measurements of CO(2) in pure pentaerythritol tetrabutyrate (PEC4) between 243 K and 343 K are presented and compared with miscibility data of CO(2) in pentaerythritol tetrahexanoate (PEC6) and pentaerythritol tetraoctanoate (PEC8). The experimental data were correlated with a thermodynamic model based on a cubic equation of state with Huron-Vidal mixing rules and the UNIQUAC equation for the excess Gibbs energy at infinite pressure. 9961,2009,2,4,Sources and pathways of (90)Sr in the North Atlantic-Arctic region: present day and global warming,The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides (137)Cs and (90)Sr| originating from nuclear bomb testing| the Sellafield reprocessing plant in the Irish Sea (UK)| and from the Ob and Yenisey river discharges to the Arctic Ocean| have been simulated using the global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysis fields for the period of 1948-1999. Comparison of the temporal evolution of the observed and the simulated concentrations of (90)Sr has been performed in the Kara Sea. The relative contributions of the different sources on the temporal and spatial distributions of the surface (90)Sr are quantified over the simulated period. It follows that the Ob river discharge dominated the surface (90)Sr over most of the Arctic Ocean and along the eastern and western coasts of Greenland before 1960. During the period of 19801990| the atmospheric fallout and the Ob river discharge were equally important for the 90Sr distribution in the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore| an attempt has been made to explore the possible dispersion of accidental released (90)Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers under a global warming scenario (2 X CO(2)). The difference between the present-day and the global warming scenario runs indicates that more of the released (90)Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is confined to the Arctic Ocean in the global warming run| particularly in the near coastal| non-European part of the Arctic Ocean. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9387,2009,2,4,Sources and transformations of chromophoric dissolved organic matter in the Neponset River Watershed,The major source of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in coastal waters is often terrestrial dissolved organic matter originating in coastal watersheds and delivered to the ocean by rivers or streams. While studies of carbon cycling in large rivers dominate the literature| small rivers deliver the bulk of the freshwater to coastal waters (similar to 60%). However| the variability of organic matter fluxes in small rivers requires high spatial and temporal resolution measurements to adequately represent the processes controlling distributions and fluxes. In this study| CDOM was measured monthly for 2 years at 15 sampling sites throughout a small| coastal| urban watershed (300 km(2))| the Neponset River Watershed| and CDOM variability was found to depend on land use type| discharge/precipitation| and growing degree days (temperature). Forest| wetland| residential| industrial| and golf course CDOM end-members were measured and differentiated using CDOM fluorescence| CDOM absorbance| absorbance slopes| total organic carbon and total nitrogen| and photo-and biological lability. Simple statistical models of CDOM end-member behavior could explain 40-70% of the observed seasonal variability. Using these simple relationships| trends in total CDOM loading behavior can be predicted under various scenarios of land use change and global warming. Overall| detailed measurements of CDOM throughout the Neponset River Watershed yield new insights into the watershed processes that affect terrestrial CDOM delivery to coastal oceans. 773,2009,2,4,Spatial and interspecific variability in phenological responses to warming temperatures,A comprehensive understanding of species phenological responses to global warming will require observations that are both long-term and spatially extensive. Here we present an analysis of the spring phenological response to climate variation of twelve taxa: six plants| three birds| a frog| and two insects. Phenology was monitored using standardized protocols at 176 meteorological stations in Japan and South Korea from 1953 to 2005| and in some cases even longer. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to examine the complex interactions of temperature| site effects| and latitude on phenology. Results show species-specific variation in the magnitude and even in the direction of their responses to increasing temperature| which also differ from site-to-site. At most sites the differences in phenology among species are forecast to become greater with warmer temperatures. Our results challenge the assertion that trends in one geographic region can be extrapolated to others| and emphasize the idiosyncratic nature of the species response to global warming. Field studies are needed to determine how these patterns of variation in species response to climate change affect species interactions and the ability to persist in a changing climate. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 947,2009,2,4,Spatial and temporal variation in the relative contribution of density dependence| climate variation and migration to fluctuations in the size of great tit populations,The aim of the present study is to model the stochastic variation in the size of five populations of great tit Parus major in the Netherlands| using a combination of individual-based demographic data and time series of population fluctuations. We will examine relative contribution of density-dependent effects| and variation in climate and winter food on local dynamics as well as on number of immigrants. Annual changes in population size were strongly affected by temporal variation in number of recruits produced locally as well as by the number of immigrants. The number of individuals recruited from one breeding season to the next was mainly determined by the population size in year t| the beech crop index (BCI) in year t and the temperature during March-April in year t. The number of immigrating females in year t + 1 was also explained by the number of females present in the population in year t| the BCI in autumn year t and the temperature during April-May in year t. By comparing predictions of the population model with the recorded number of females| the simultaneous modelling of local recruitment and immigration explained a large proportion of the annual variation in recorded population growth rates. Environmental stochasticity especially caused by spring temperature and BCI did in general contribute more to annual fluctuations in population size than density-dependent effects. Similar effects of climate on local recruitment and immigration also caused covariation in temporal fluctuations of immigration and local production of recruits. The effects of various variables in explaining fluctuations in population size were not independent| and the combined effect of the variables were generally non-additive. Thus| the effects of variables causing fluctuations in population size should not be considered separately because the total effect will be influenced by covariances among the explanatory variables. Our results show that fluctuations in the environment affect local recruitment as well as annual fluctuations in the number of immigrants. This effect of environment on the interchange of individuals among populations is important for predicting effects of global climate change on the pattern of population fluctuations. 10050,2009,3,2,Spatial pattern of methane emissions from Indian livestock,Methane is an important greenhouse gas which significantly contributes to global warming. Livestock is a major anthropogenic source of methane emission from agriculture. India possesses the world's largest livestock population of 485 million| with a high degree of diversity in its composition. Among the livestock categories| cattle dominate with 38.2% followed by goat (25.7%)| buffalo (20.2%)| sheep (12.7%) and others (3.3%). The detailed state/district-level methane emission inventory by age-groups| indigenous and exotic breeds of different livestock categories was estimated using the country-specific and Indian feed standard-based emission coefficients and recent livestock census 2003. The total methane emission from Indian livestock| which includes enteric fermentation and manure management| was 11.75 Tg for 2003. Enteric fermentation accounts for 10.65 Tg(similar to 91%) compared to 1.09 Tg (similar to 9%) by manure management. Dairy buffalo and indigenous dairy cattle together contribute 60% of the total methane emission. The three high methane emitter states are Uttar Pradesh (14.9%)| Rajasthan (9.1%) and Madhya Pradesh (8.5%). The detailed district-level spatial analysis in GIS environment resulted in the identification of clusters of districts with high emissions. Among these| Mednipur District (West Bengal) reported the highest total methane emission of 0.12 Tg. Using the remote sensing-derived livestock available feed/fodder area| the average methane flux from Indian livestock was computed as 74.4 kg/ha. 9508,2009,2,4,Spatial patterns in temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in China: Estimation with inverse modeling,Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Q(10)) is an important parameter in modeling the effects of global warming on ecosystem carbon release. Experimental studies of soil respiration have ubiquitously indicated that Q(10) has high spatial heterogeneity. However| most biogeochemical models still use a constant Q(10) in projecting future climate change and no spatial pattern of Q(10) values at large scales has been derived. In this study| we conducted an inverse modeling analysis to retrieve the spatial pattern of Q(10) in China at 8 km spatial resolution by assimilating data of soil organic carbon into a process-based terrestrial carbon model (CASA model). The results indicate that the optimized Q(10) values are spatially heterogeneous and consistent to the values derived from soil respiration observations. The mean Q(10) values of different soil types range from 1.09 to 2.38| with the highest value in volcanic soil| and the lowest value in cold brown calcic soil. The spatial pattern of Q(10) is related to environmental factors| especially precipitation and top soil organic carbon content. This study demonstrates that inverse modeling is a useful tool in deriving the spatial pattern of Q(10) at large scales| with which being incorporated into biogeochemical models| uncertainty in the projection of future carbon dynamics could be potentially reduced. 10311,2009,2,4,Spatial variability of fire history in subalpine forests: From natural to cultural regimes,The goal of this study was to determine the effect of local and large-scale processes on fire frequency during the postglacial period in a subalpine ecosystem (Alps| France). Large-scale processes should produce homogeneous distribution of fire-free intervals and synchronicity of fire series| and dominance of local-scale processes| such as those triggered by differences in relief| slope aspect| human history| etc. should create heterogeneous fire regimes. Four ponds and peat were sampled at different elevations and exposures. Sedimentary charcoal was used as a fire proxy| and plant macroremains were used as a vegetation proxy. Synchronicity analysis was based on a transformed Ripley's K-function. Similar fire-free intervals during the early Holocene suggest that fire regimes were controlled at that time by large-scale natural processes such as climate and vegetation patterns and establishment. No fire was reconstructed before 9000 y cal BP. Infrequent fires occurred following establishment of the subalpine bio-climate belt. However| local-scale processes have dominated the pattern of fire intervals during the late Holocene| with more fires at lower elevation and on south-facing slopes. Although altitude| topography| and slope aspect certainly drove between-site differences during the early Holocene| these differences disappeared during the late Holocene| when fire frequency was related not to ecological features of the natural landscape but likely to human population density and activities| e. g.| need for pastures (woody fuel suppression). Fires were certainly controlled at first by climate and vegetation (Pinus cembra)| but human practices have affected the fire regime for centuries. A new fire epoch might result from both the current global warming and on-going land-use abandonment| which has led to a significant fuel build-up in the Alps. 9702,2009,4,3,Spatial Variability of Soil Organic Carbon in a Watershed on the Loess Plateau,Soil organic carbon (SOC) has great impacts on global warming| land degradation and food security. Classic statistical and geostatistical methods were used to characterize and compare the spatial heterogeneity of SOC and related factors| such as topography| soil type and land use| in the Liudaogou watershed on the Loess Plateau of North China. SOC concentrations followed a log-normal distribution with an arithmetic and geometric means of 23.4 and 21.3 g kg(-1)| respectively| were moderately variable (CV = 75.9%)| and demonstrated a moderate spatial dependence according to the nugget ratio (34.7%). The experimental variogram of SOC was best-fitted by a spherical model| after the spatial outliers had been detected and subsequently eliminated. Lower SOC concentrations were associated with higher elevations. Warp soils and farmland had the highest SOC concentrations| while aeolian sand soil and shrublands had the lowest SOC values. The geostatistical characteristics of SOC for the different soil and land use types were different. These patterns were closely related to the spatial structure of topography| and soil and land use types. 9536,2009,3,3,Spatially Explicit Static Model for the Strategic Design of Future Bioethanol Production Systems. 2. Multi-Objective Environmental Optimization,In developing an optimization framework to assist in the design process of biofuel systems| the economic effectiveness of the supply network should not be adopted as the sole criterion to focus on. In fact| there has recently been growing attention in including environmental concerns at the strategic level of supply chain management. In this part 2| the spatially explicit multi-echelon mixed integer linear program (MILP) modeling framework described in part 1(1) of this work has been extended by including environmental issues along with the traditional economic ones within a more comprehensive multi-objective optimization tool. The economics have been assessed by means of supply chain analysis techniques| focusing on biomass cultivation site locations| ethanol production capacity assignment and facilities location|. as well as transport system optimization. The environmental performance of the system has been evaluated in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions| by adopting a well-to-tank (WTT) approach to consider the supply network operating impact on global warming over the entire life cycle. The strategic design tool as developed has been applied and solved in assessing the emerging corn-based Italian ethanol system. The resulting outcomes demonstrate the valuable support that the model may provide in formulating a well-advised strategic policy to promote the market penetration as well as to reduce the social and environmental impacts of biomass-based fuels. 9680,2009,2,4,Spatio-Temporal Variability of Rainfall over Bangladesh During the Time Period 1969-2003,Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Bangladesh has been studied in this paper from thirty-five years (1969-2003) of rainfall data recorded at 24 rain gauges distributed over the country. Long-term annual average rainfall| coefficient of variation of annual rainfall| precipitation concentration and aridity indices at each station have been computed and then interpolated using kriging method within a geographic information system to show the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. Mann-Kendall test has been used to analyze the trend in rainfall data in different recording stations and the Sen's slope method has been used to determine the magnitude of change. A moderate variation in interannual rainfall and high variation in intra-annual rainfall in Bangladesh have been observed. Non-significant positive trend of annual| monsoon and pre-monsoon rainfall| and a negative trend in winter rainfall are found in Bangladesh. Spatial distribution of rainfall trends shows that rainfall is increasing in the coastal zone and northern Bangladesh| and decreasing in the central part of the country. A declining trend of precipitation concentration is also observed in most of the stations. These results may be a first indication of the precipitation response to global warming - a hypothesis which needs to be further investigated by means of climate model projections. 9386,2009,2,4,Spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial carbon cycle during the 20th century,We evaluated how climate change| rising atmospheric CO(2) concentration| and land use change influenced the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle for the last century using a process-based ecosystem model. Over the last century| the modeled land use change emitted about 129 Pg of C to the atmosphere. About 76% (or 98 Pg C) of this emission| however| was offset by net C uptake on land driven by climate changes and rising atmospheric CO(2) concentration. Thus| the modeled net release of C from the terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere from 1901 to 2002 is about 31 Pg C. Global net primary productivity (NPP) has significantly increased by 14% during the last century| especially since the 1970s. From 1980 to 2002| global NPP increased with an average increase rate of 0.4% yr(-1). At global scale| such an increase seems to be primarily attributed to the increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration| and then to precipitation change. Over the last 2 decades| climate change and rising CO(2) forced the land carbon sink (1.6 Pg C yr(-1) for 1980s and 2.2 Pg C yr(-1) for 1990s) to be larger than land use change driven carbon emissions (1.0 Pg C yr(-1) for 1980s and 1.2 Pg C yr-1 for 1990s)| resulting a net land sink of 0.5 Pg C yr(-1) in the 1980s and of 1.0 Pg C yr(-1) in the 1990s. The largest C emission from land use change appeared in tropical regions with an average emission of 0.6 Pg C yr(-1) in 1980s and 0.7 Pg C yr(-1) in 1990s| which is slightly larger than net carbon uptake due to CO(2) fertilization and climate change. Thus| net carbon balance of tropical lands is close to neutral over the past 2 decades (about 0.13 Pg C yr(-1) in 1980s and 0.03 Pg C yr(-1) in 1990s). We also found that current global warming has already started accelerating C loss from terrestrial ecosystems| by enhanced decomposition of soil organic carbon. In response to warming trends only| the global net carbon uptake significantly decreased| offsetting about 70% of the increase in global net carbon uptake owing to CO(2) fertilization during 1980-2002. The global terrestrial C cycle also shows large year-to-year variations| and different regions have quite distinct dominant drivers. Generally| interannual changes of carbon fluxes in tropical and temperate ecosystems are mainly explained by precipitation variability| while temperature variability plays a major role in boreal ecosystems. 1018,2009,2,4,Spectral identification of ozone-damaged pine needles,Needles were collected from ponderosa and Jeffrey pine trees at three sites in the Sierra Nevada| and were assembled into 504 samples and grouped according to five dominant live needle conditions - green| winter fleck| sucking insect damage| scale insect damage| and ozone damage - and a random mixture. Reflectance and transmittance measurements of abaxial and adaxial surfaces were obtained at ca 0.3nm spectral resolution from 400-800nm| and binned to simulate Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data. There were no significant differences in optical properties between the two surfaces. Ozone-damaged needles were collected from Jeffrey pine trees at one site| and exhibited significantly different (family-wise =0.01) reflectance and transmittance signatures - and significantly different signature slopes - at both spectral resolutions| from green and winter fleck needles from the same site. Ozone-damaged needles had significantly different (family-wise =0.01) abaxial surface reflectance and reflectance slope signatures from all other groups of needles| at both spectral resolutions. In comparison with three chlorophyll reflectance indices| a new red fall index (RFI) provides high classification accuracies for ozone-damaged and non-ozone-damaged pine needles (overall acc.=94%; =59%). Thus| ozone-damaged Jeffrey pine needles have a unique spectral signature in relation to dominant needle conditions of ponderosa and Jeffrey pine trees. 955,2009,3,3,Spectroscopy Technique and Ruminant Methane Emissions Accurate Inspecting,The increase in atmospheric CH(4) concentration| on the one hand through the radiation process| will directly cause climate change| and on the other hand| cause a lot of changes in atmospheric chemical processes| indirectly causing climate change. The rapid growth of atmospheric methane has gained attention of governments and scientists. All countries in the world now deal with global climate change as an important task of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases| but the need for monitoring the concentration of methane gas| in particular precision monitoring| can be scientifically formulated to provide a scientific basis for emission reduction measures. So far| CH(4) gas emissions of different animal production systems have received extensive research. The methane emission by ruminant reported in the literature is only estimation. This is due to the various factors that affect the methane production in ruminant| there are various variables associated with the techniques for measuring methane production| the techniques currently developed to measure methane are unable to accurately determine the dynamics of methane emission by ruminant| and therefore there is an urgent need to develop an accurate method for this purpose. Currently| spectroscopy technique has been used and is relatively a more accurate and reliable method. Various spectroscopy techniques such as modified infrared spectroscopy methane measuring system| laser and near-infrared sensory system are able to achieve the objective of determining the dynamic methane emission by both domestic and grazing ruminant. Therefore spectroscopy technique is an important methane measuring technique| and contributes to proposing reduction methods of methane. 949,2009,2,4,SPIRIT. SPOT 5 stereoscopic survey of Polar Ice: Reference Images and Topographies during the fourth International Polar Year (2007-2009),Monitoring the evolution of polar glaciers| ice caps and ice streams is of utmost importance because they constitute a good indicator of global climate change and contribute significantly to ongoing sea level rise. Accurate topographic surveys are particularly relevant as they reflect the geometric evolution of ice masses. Unfortunately| the precision and/or spatial coverage of current satellite missions (radar altimetry| ICESat) or field surveys are generally insufficient. Improving our knowledge of the topography of Polar Regions is the goal of the SPIRIT (SPOT 5 stereoscopic survey of Polar Ice: Reference Images and Topographies) international polar year (IPY) project. SPIRIT will allow (1) the acquisition of a large archive of SPOT 5 stereoscopic images covering most polar ice masses and| (2) the delivery of digital terrain models (DTM) to the scientific community. Here| we present the architecture of this project and the coverage achieved over northern and southern polar areas during the first year of IPY (July 2007 to April 2008). We also provide the first accuracy assessments of the SPIRIT DTMs. Over Jakobshavn Isbrae (West Greenland)| SPIRIT elevations are within +/- 6 m of ICESat elevations for 90% of the data. Some comparisons with ICESat profiles over Devon ice cap (Canada)| St Elias Mountains (Alaska) and west Svalbard confirm the good overall quality of the SPIRIT DTMs although large errors are observed in the flat accumulation area of Devon ice cap. We then demonstrate the potential of SPIRIT DTMs for mapping glacier elevation changes. The comparison of summer-2007 SPIRIT DTMs with October-2003 ICESat profiles shows that the thinning of Jakobshavn Isbrae (by 30-40 m in 4 years) is restricted to the fast glacier trunk. The thinning of the coastal part of the ice stream (by over 100 m) and the retreat of its calving front (by up to 10 km) are clearly depicted by comparing the SPIRIT DTM to an ASTER April-2003 DTM. (C) 2008 International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing| Inc. (ISPRS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9311,2009,2,4,Spring migration phenology of birds in the Northern Prairie region is correlated with local climate change,In apparent response to recent periods of global warming| some migratory birds now arrive earlier at stopover sites and breeding grounds. However| the effects of this warming on arrival times vary among locations and species. Migration timing is generally correlated with temperature| with earlier arrival during warm years than during cold years| so local variation in climate change might produce different effects on migration phenology in different geographic regions. We examined trends in first spring arrival dates (FADs) for 44 species of common migrant birds in South Dakota (1971-2006) and Minnesota (1964-2005) using observations compiled by South Dakota and Minnesota Ornithologists' Unions. We found significant trends in FAD over time for 20 species (18 arriving earlier and two later) in South Dakota and 16 species (all earlier) in Minnesota. Of these species| 10 showed similar significant trends for both states. All 10 of these species exhibited significantly earlier arrival| and all were early spring migrants| with median FADs before 10 April in both states. Eighteen of the 44 species showed significant negative correlations of FADs with either winter (December-February) or spring (arrival month plus previous month) temperatures in one or both states. Interestingly| spring temperatures in both South Dakota and Minnesota did not warm significantly from 1971-2006| but winter temperatures in both states warmed significantly over the same time period. This suggests that the warmer winters disproportionately affected early spring migrants| especially those associated with aquatic habitats (seven of the 10 species showing significantly earlier spring arrival in both states). The stronger response to climate change by early spring migrants in our study is consistent with the results of several other studies| and suggests that migrants| especially early migrants| are capable of responding to local temperature conditions experienced on wintering grounds or along the migration route. 820,2009,2,4,SPRING TREE SPECIES USE BY MIGRATING YELLOW-RUMPED WARBLERS IN RELATION TO PHENOLOGY AND FOOD AVAILABILITY,I examined the temporal pattern of migration and tree species preferences of Yellow-rumped Warblers (Dendroica coronata) in relation to tree and food phenology across three spring seasons (2001-2003) at a migration stopover site in cast-central Illinois| USA. Foraging Yellow-rumped Warblers used tree species in relation to the date that trees initiated bud break and the date caterpillars were most abundant in trees. The first arrival date of Yellow-rumped Warblers at the stopover site varied with date of bud break; duration of migration through the stopover site ranged from 31 to 47 days. The earliest Yellow-rumped Warbler migrants observed arrived at the stopover site before appearance of many arthropods| and foraged on the temporarily abundant adult stage of the hackberry psyllid (Pachypsylla spp. [Fletcher] [Homoptera]). Later migrants switched to foraging for caterpillars. The proportions of foraging observations among tree species were similar across all 3 years and| each year| tree species used by Yellow-rumped Warblers diversified as spring progressed. Yellow-rumped Warblers are short-distance migrants (most winter in the southern United States); my results indicate these birds may have an advantage over long-distance migrants in view of global climate change as they can arrive early at stopover habitats and exploit resources when they are most available. 9380,2009,4,4,Spurious correlations between recent warming and indices of local economic activity,A series of climate model simulations of the 20th Century are analysed to investigate a number of published correlations between indices of local economic activity and recent global warming. These correlations have been used to support a hypothesis that the observed surface warming record has been contaminated in some way and thus overestimates true global warming. However| the basis of the results are correlations over a very restricted set of locations (predominantly western Europe| Japan and the USA) which project strongly onto naturally occurring patterns of climate variability| or are with fields with significant amounts of spatial auto-correlation. Across model simulations| the correlations vary widely due to the chaotic weather component in any short-term record. The reported correlations do not fall outside the simulated distribution| and are probably spurious (i.e. are likely to have arisen from chance alone). Thus| though this study cannot prove that the global temperature record is unbiased| there is no compelling evidence from these correlations of any large-scale contamination. Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 10186,2009,4,4,Stabilization of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and the Muted Global Hydrological Cycle Response to Global Warming,Both the global precipitation and evaporation in global warming simulations increase at 1%-3% K(-1)| much smaller than the rate suggested from the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation (6%-6.5% K(-1)). However| the reduction of surface sensible heat flux over the global ocean (5.2% K(-1)) matches the difference between the fractional increase of evaporation and the C-C relation| implying that the fractional decrease of the Bowen ratio over the global ocean follows the C-C relation closely. The analysis suggests that the stabilization of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in response to global warming is the main factor responsible for the simultaneous reduction of the surface sensible flux and the muted increase in the surface latent heat. Because the stabilization of the ABL causes the same amount of fractional change in both the sensible and latent heat fluxes| the fractional decrease of the Bowen ratio closely follows the C-C relation. The ABL stabilization mechanism for the muted increase in the global hydrological cycle in response to global warming is physically consistent with two other proposed mechanisms| namely| the atmospheric energy constraint and the reduction of convective mass flux. 9704,2009,3,4,Stabilization of Wind Energy Conversion System with Hydrogen Generator by Using EDLC Energy Storage System,The spread of wind power generation has progressed hugely in recent years from the viewpoint of environmental problems including global warming. Though wind power is considered as a very prospective energy source| wind power fluctuation due to the random fluctuation of wind speed has still created some problems. Therefore| research has been performed on how to smooth the wind power fluctuation. This paper proposes Energy Capacitor System (ECS) for the smoothing of wind power which consists of Electric Double-Layer Capacitor (EDLC) and power electronics devices and works as an electric power storage system. Moreover| hydrogen has received much attention in recent years from the viewpoint of the problem of exhaustion of fossil fuel. Therefore| it is also proposed that a hydrogen generator be installed at the wind farm to generate hydrogen. In this paper| the effectiveness of the proposed system is verified by simulation analyses using PSCAD/EMTDC. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals| Inc. Electr Eng Jpn| 168(3): 10-18| 2009; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/eej.20864 9583,2009,3,2,STEP (Solar Thermal Electrochemical Photo) Generation of Energetic Molecules: A Solar Chemical Process to End Anthropogenic Global Warming,In this study| a solar hybrid theory is derived for the electrosynthesis of energetic molecules at efficiency greater than that for the solar energy conversion efficiency of photovoltaics. The theory distinguishes radiation that drives photovoltaic charge transfer and applies all excess energy to heat and decrease the energy of endothermic electrolysis reactions. The theory for this original process is derived for the solar generation of energetically rich chemicals| including chlorine| iron| aluminum| magnesium| lithium| and sodium| and to proactively convert anthropogenic CO(2) generated in burning fossil fuels. The process directs energy sufficient (super-bandgap) sunlight to drive photovoltaic charge transfer| and all remaining (sub-bandgap and excess super-bandgap energy) sunlight to heat and decrease the energy of ail electrolysis reaction. In a 650 degrees C molten carbonate electrolysis configuration| from the STEP (solar thermal electrochemical photo) conversion theory| Sunlight will recycle and remove CO(2) at 50% solar efficiency in a cell with similar to 58 mbar CO and 1 bar Of CO(2). 10100,2009,2,4,Storage and turnover of carbon in grassland soils along an elevation gradient in the Swiss Alps,Amount| composition| and rate of turnover of soil organic carbon (SOC) in mountainous cold regions is largely unknown| making predictions of future responses of this carbon (C) to changing environmental conditions uncertain. We hypothesized increasing amounts and declining turnover times of soil organic matter (SOM) under permanent grassland with increasing elevation and decreasing temperature. Samples from an irrigated transect in the Swiss Alps (880 to 2200m elevation| mean annual temperatures +8.9 to +0.9 degrees C) were analyzed. Soil C stocks ranged from 49 to 96 t Cha(-1) (0-20 cm) and were not related to elevation| though the highest site stored least C. Particulate organic carbon (POC) increased significantly with elevation and accounted for >80% of the total soil C at 2200m (0-5 cm). Mean residence times (MRTs) of POC computed by means of radiocarbon dating were in the order of years to decades and were positively related to elevation in the topsoil. At higher elevations| the estimated total C flux through the soil profile mainly depended on this fraction. MRT of mineral-associated matter ranged from decades to centuries and was not systematically related to elevation| but positively related to the soil mineral surface area and it increased with soil depth. Turnover rates from simulations with the soil C model RothC exceeded those from (14)C measurements by a factor of 1.7-3.3 which suggests that C dynamics at these sites is overestimated by the model. Size of model pools and amount of C in soil fractions were only weakly correlated| thereby challenging previously postulated hypotheses concerning the correspondence of pools and fractions for grasslands at higher elevations. 9468,2009,2,4,Structure and species richness in wetland continua on sandy soils in subtropical and tropical Australia,Net photosynthetic fixation of wetland plant communities is confined to the period of the year when the surface soil is not waterlogged and is thus well aerated. In the open-structured vegetation continuum across freshwater wetlands on sandy soils in subtropical and tropical Australia| the sum of the foliage projective covers (FPCs) of the overstorey and understorey strata remains constant| while that of the overstorey decreases to zero as seasonal waterlogging (and anaerobic conditions) in the surface root systems increases. Density and height of the overstorey trees - of only one or two species - and species richness (number of species per hectare) in the understorey decreases along this waterlogging gradient. Melaleuca paperbark trees| possessing surface roots with cortical aerenchyma| may form a closed-forest at the edge of the wetland continuum wherever there is a continuous flow of aerated water. As global warming progresses| an increase in air temperature in the atmosphere flowing over and through the wetland continuum during the short period of annual foliage-growth will affect the combined FPCs of overstorey and understorey strata| as well as the leaf-specific weights of all leaves throughout the plant community. With a reduction in net photosynthetic fixation| species richness of the plant community will slowly decline. 10317,2009,3,3,Studies on the aerobic methane oxidation at three sanitary landfills covers in Brazil,The biological and aerobic oxidation of methane within the soil cover of municipal solid waste landfills is one an alternative to minimize emissions of greenhouse effect gases. This study aims at assess the biological oxidation of methane within the final cover of three landfills in Brazil (two municipal ones and one experimental cell). The soil samples obtained from the landfill cover were characterized by geotechnical and microbiological tests. In the laboratory the consumption of methane from each sample were evaluated. The results revealed the presence of methanotrophic bacteria and consumption of methane in the laboratory was observed| which also suggest that there is an inverse relation between the degree of saturation at the time of sampling and the number of methanotrophic bacteria. 871,2009,4,4,Study of Alternative GPS Network Meteorological Sensors in Taiwan: Case Studies of the Plum Rains and Typhoon Sinlaku,Plum rains and typhoons are important weather systems in the Taiwan region. They can cause huge economic losses| but they are also considered as important water resources as they strike Taiwan annually and fill the reservoirs around the island. There are many meteorological sensors available for investigating the characteristics of weather and climate systems. Recently| the use of GPS as an alternative meteorological sensor has become popular due to the catastrophic impact of global climate change. GPS provides meteorological parameters mainly from the atmosphere. Precise Point Positioning (PPP) is a proven algorithm that has attracted attention in GPS related studies. This study uses GPS measurements collected at more than fifty reference stations of the e-GPS network in Taiwan. The first data set was collected from June 1st 2008 to June 7th 2008| which corresponds to the middle of the plum rain season in Taiwan. The second data set was collected from September 11th to September 17th 2008 during the landfall of typhoon Sinlaku. The data processing strategy is to process the measurements collected at the reference stations of the e-GPS network using the PPP technique to estimate the zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) values of the sites; thus| the correlations between the ZTD values and the variation of rainfall during the plum rains and typhoon are analyzed. In addition| several characteristics of the meteorological events are identified using spatial and temporal analyses of the ZTD values estimated with the GPS network PPP technique. 9535,2009,3,2,Study on the Interaction between NO(x) and K(2)CO(3) during CO(2) Absorption,The trend toward global warming has become more and more apparent in recent years. It has been widely accepted that CO(2) is the main contributor to this process and that CO(2) emissions urgently need to be reduced. However| the capital cost for CO(2) capture from a coal-fired power station using traditional solvent absorption technology is relatively high. A possible solution to reduce the cost is to achieve absorption of SO(2)| NO(x)| and CO(2) in a one-step process. Potassium carbonate (K(2)CO(3)) is a potential solvent for absorbing all of these components simultaneously. To apply this absorption process in an industrial situation| it is very important to understand the interaction between the solvent and minor components contained in the flue gas| such as SO(2) and NO(x). The effect of SO(2) on CO(2) absorption using K(2)CO(3) solutions has been previously discussed. This paper studies the influence of NO(x) upon CO(2) absorption using 30 wt % K(2)CO(3) solvent. It was found that the reaction between NO(x) and K(2)CO(3) was irreversible| which would result in the accumulation of NO(2)(-) and NO(3)(-) in the solvent using an industrial flue gas process| with a simultaneous reduction in the CO(3)(2-) concentration. 10334,2009,2,4,Subconjunctival nodule with Dirofilaria repens,Dirofilaria repens infection|a zoonotic illness|is rarely seen in humans; it is more frequently met over the endemic areas of the Southern Europe and Sri Lanka. The authors report a case of dirofilaria conjunctivae in a 27 year old woman from Craiova; such infections are hardly to be found in our country. Our patient presented a mobile|bulbar| subconjunctival tumoral formation which was surgically removed; immature Dirofilaria repens was revealed into it. Case particularity was that the patient had not visited any of the endemic areas. Enviromental changes with global warming can lead to some new unspecific diseases in our country. 10022,2009,2,3,Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario,Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian Summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 x CO(2) integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3| which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 x CO(2)| mean summer rainfall increases slightly| especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase| consistent with fewer wet days| and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India| increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain| however| given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity| lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian Summer monsoon| important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output| are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3| in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events| particularly when measured against the annual cycle| although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 9465,2009,2,3,Success of the invasive Ponto-Caspian amphipod Dikerogammarus villosus by life history traits and reproductive capacity,Dikerogammarus villosus originates from the Ponto-Caspian basin. In the Austrian stretch of the River Danube it was not found before 1989| and not before 1992 in the Bavarian Danube. It very quickly spread to Germany| the Netherlands| and France via the so called "Southern Corridor". The invader also migrates via the "Central Corridor"| reaching as far west as the Vistula River. The species has been reported from a number of lakes. Reasons for the quick spread and high abundance are| beside others| its life history traits. A population of this invasive species was studied from 2002 to 2004 in the Austrian stretch of the Danube. The following life-history traits are important in the invasion success: long reproductive period| early sexual maturity| short generation time| a life span not exceeding 1 year (up to three generations and 14 cohorts being present at the same time)| high growth rates resulting in large body size| short duration of embryonic development| large numbers of comparatively small eggs in the brood pouch| large reproductive capacity| and optimal timing to release the maximum number of neonates per female in May/June (maximising rapid growth at high summer temperatures and at times of plentiful food)| increasing mating privilege for large specimens of both sexes with decreasing water temperatures during winter. These life cycle characteristics together with its predatory behaviour and its ability to cope with variation in oxygen| temperature and salinity| give this invader a potential to become distributed in freshwater ecosystems of the temperate climate zone all over the world. Additionally| several indications seem to prove the tendency that biological invasion and global warming have a positive feed-back on each other. This combined scenario is a huge threat to the indigenous aquatic fauna| and might contribute to bio-monotony. 10321,2009,2,4,SUCCULENTS (FAT PLANTS) ON THE ADRIATIC COAST AND THEIR USE IN PARKS,Succulent plants are gradually colonizing the Croatian coast. These plants initially the collector's items| but when their ability to tolerate low temperatures was discovered| they began to be grown in the open. Since this species was often mentioned by Croatian Renaissance writers| it can be said with certainty that Opuntia sp. occurred in the Mediterranean and the Adriatic region as early as the 16(th) century| shortly after the discovery of America. Many of the Opuntia sp. and Agave americana plants developed spontaneously by adapting to the new ecological conditions. In fact| the American agave virtually became a symbol of some parts of the Croatian coast. Certain cacti species| such as C. Peruvians "Monstruosus"| which may reach over 4 metres in height| manifest high resistance to cold and are frequently found along the Croatian coast. Due to global warming| some plants| such as Aptenia cordifolia| a species unheard of in these parts only some ten years ago| have acclimatized to the conditions and spread across the coastal area. Apart from these exotic succulents| the Croatian coast is also home to some European fat plants| such as Sedum sp-stonecrop| and Sempervivum sp.-houseleek Succulents are plants that thrive in stony areas. Still| we should be cautious not to over-plant them| since they impart an exotic appearance. 10047,2009,4,4,Sulfuryl fluoride in the global atmosphere,The first calibrated high-frequency| high-precision| in situ atmospheric and archived air measurements of the fumigant sulfuryl fluoride (SO(2)F(2)) have been made as part of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gas Experiment (AGAGE) program. The global tropospheric background concentration of SO(2)F(2) has increased by 5 +/- 1% per year from similar to 0.3 ppt (parts per trillion| dry air mol fraction) in 1978 to similar to 1.35 ppt in May 2007 in the Southern Hemisphere| and from similar to 1.08 ppt in 1999 to similar to 1.53 ppt in May 2007 in the Northern Hemisphere. The SO(2)F(2) interhemispheric concentration ratio was 1.13 +/- 0.02 from 1999 to 2007. Two-dimensional 12-box model inversions yield global total and global oceanic uptake atmospheric lifetimes of 36 +/- 11 and 40 +/- 13 years| respectively| with hydrolysis in the ocean being the dominant sink| in good agreement with 35 +/- 14 years from a simple oceanic uptake calculation using transfer velocity and solubility. Modeled SO2F2 emissions rose from similar to 0.6 Gg/a in 1978 to similar to 1.9 Gg/a in 2007| but estimated industrial production exceeds these modeled emissions by an average of similar to 50%. This discrepancy cannot be explained with a hypothetical land sink in the model| suggesting that only similar to 2/3 of the manufactured SO(2)F(2) is actually emitted into the atmosphere and that similar to 1/3 may be destroyed during fumigation. With mean SO(2)F(2) tropospheric mixing ratios of similar to 1.4 ppt| its radiative forcing is small and it is probably an insignificant sulfur source to the stratosphere. However| with a high global warming potential similar to CFC-11| and likely increases in its future use| continued atmospheric monitoring of SO(2)F(2) is warranted. 888,2009,3,3,Superconducting Ducted Fan Design for Reduced Emissions Aeropropulsion,This article introduces a new conceptual design tool for an environmentally sustainable method of aeropropulsion: a ducted fan system driven by a fully superconducting electrical machine. Such a system could help mitigate aviation's contribution to global climate change by enabling the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from aircraft. An electro-thermal motor sizing model was coupled with cycle analysis and weight estimation routines to create an automated environment for rapid design trade studies. The resulting parametric cycle analysis and sizing outcomes revealed the system's operational boundaries for a given aspiration space. 728,2009,4,4,Surface currents during anomalous upwelling seasons off central California,An extensive spatiotemporal surface currents data set from central California is used to examine in detail 2 extreme years in the California Current. The year 2006 is characterized by an extended period of calm winds during the critical early months of the upwelling season (April and May). This leads to little or no upwelling over this period| essentially delaying the onset of the upwelling season. The year 2007 is characterized by extremely strong alongshore wind stress during the first quarter of the year and during the early part of the upwelling season. This produced monthly mean alongshore current velocities over the midshelf for April 2007 in excess of 0.7 m s(-1)| which has not been previously observed in this region for periods of more than a few days since the installation of the HF radar instruments in 2001. Both of these extremes appear to have had important consequences for the coastal ecosystem that have been documented elsewhere| including the collapse of parts of the trophic web (2006) and the presence of large quantities of water of deep origin over the continental shelf (2007). Understanding and describing circulation and transport patterns during these extremes is important in light of predictions from global climate change| which may cause these extreme conditions to occur more frequently. 9824,2009,3,4,Surface science with aerosols,Experimental surface science with aerosol particles under atmospheric conditions is becoming a realistic possibility. The first part of this critical review focuses on nano-scopic aerosols generated in combustion of organic fuels at ambient pressures. The bizarre shape of soot agglomerates resists a simple definition of size and surface area. Yet a measure of the size known as the mobility diameter can be extracted from the mobility of the particles in their carrier gas. The total surface area must be divided into an active and a passive part. At the active surface| mass| energy| and momentum is exchanged with the molecules of the carrier gas. The active surface thus determines the dynamical properties of the particles. The passive surface is the surface enclosed in the interior as well as the surface in bays or cracks or| with larger particles| in the dead point of the laminar flow; it determines particle properties on a longer time scale. Simple automatic portable sensors measure the number density of airborne particles. their "size" and a characteristic fingerprint of the surface chemistry| making it possible to determine the source from which the particle was emitted. The response time of the sensors is similar to 1 s| hence one can monitor dynamical changes of the particles such as adsorption of water in the atmosphere. In the second part we examine a number of surface science techniques that have been used to characterize surfaces important to atmospheric chemistry in more detail| in particular the uptake of water and the influence of surfactants. We illustrate the application of these techniques to the investigation of alkali halide surfaces as a function of relative humidity. Finally we give first examples on how infrared spectroscopy and synchrotron-based ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy have been used to study more realistic aerosol particles| under conditions of ambient humidity. These examples show that in situ chemical analysis of the particles is possible with third generation synchrotron X-ray sources. In the near future| X-ray lasers might reveal the fast dynamics of chemical processes as well. Thus it is within reach to study aerosols under the conditions of the stratosphere. Stratospheric aerosols can reduce the insolation of the earth and may become one of the last resorts of humanity to counteract the effects of global warming. Published by Elsevier B.V. 885,2009,2,3,Surface-Based Convective Potential in the Contiguous United States in a Business-as-Usual Future Climate,To date| neither observational studies nor direct climate model simulations have been able to document trends in the frequency or severity of deep moist convection associated with global climate change. The lack of such evidence is not unexpected as the observational record is insufficiently long and computational limitations prevent modeling at the scales necessary to simulate explicitly such phenomena. Nonetheless| severe deep moist convection represents an important aspect of regional climate| particularly in the central United States| where damage| injuries| and fatalities are a frequent result of such phenomena. Accordingly| any comprehensive assessment of the regional effects of climate change must account for these effects. In this work| the authors present a "perfect prog'' approach to estimating the potential for surface-based convective initiation and severity based upon the large-scale variables well resolved by climate model simulations. This approach allows for the development of a stable estimation scheme that can be applied to any climate model simulation| presently and into the future. The scheme is applied for the contiguous United States using the output from the Parallel Climate Model| with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change third assessment A2 ( business as usual) as input. For this run| relative to interannual variability| the potential frequency of deep moist convection does not change| but the potential for severe convection is found to increase east of the Rocky Mountains and most notably in the "tornado alley'' region of the U. S. Midwest. This increase in severe potential is mostly tied to increases in thermodynamic instability as a result of ongoing warm season surface warming and moistening. Finally| approaches toward improving such estimation methods are briefly discussed. 10158,2009,2,4,Surface-subsurface water exchange rates along alluvial river reaches control the thermal patterns in an Alpine river network,1. Water temperature is a key characteristic of stream ecosystems that is gaining scientific and managerial relevance as maximum temperatures in aquatic ecosystems increase worldwide. 2. To assess the effect of surface-subsurface water exchange on stream water temperature patterns| four alluvial reaches in the Tagliamento River basin (NE Italy)| constrained by geomorphic knickpoints at the upper and lower end| and two to four hyporheic flowpaths within each reach| were continuously studied during summer 2007 and winter 2007-08. Water temperature was continuously monitored at the upstream and downstream knickpoints of the floodplains| as well as at discrete upwelling areas within each reach. Discharge and vertical hydraulic gradient were measured along the alluvial reaches| and the residence time and chemistry of upwelling water were assessed four times during the study. 3. Discharge variation along the study reaches revealed that massive hyporheic exchange occurred in all sites| ranging from 21% in reach 2-52% in reach 1. End member mixing analysis showed little influence of ground water| as almost all upwelling water was freshly infiltrated hyporheic water. Importantly| hyporheic exchange flows shaped surface temperature at the upwelling locations in all study reaches| providing potential thermal refugia for aquatic biota. At sites with highest hyporheic flow rates| net temperature change was also reflected at the floodplain scale. 4. The magnitude of the thermal change along a hyporheic flowpath was not related to the flowpath length but to the estimated (222)Rn water age. Reduction in the diel thermal amplitude by hyporheic flows rather than net temperature change| reduced temperature extremes. Therefore| restoration activities to create thermal refugia should consider the role of hyporheic flows and enhance the exchange between surface and hyporheic waters. 9452,2009,2,4,Surveillance and control of imported animal diseaes. Role of the OIE and veterinary services,Many animal diseases have received major media attention in recent years including foot-and-mouth disease| bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)| and avian influenza. Epizootics are on the increase| notably owing to globalization| ecological upheavals| and global warming. It is estimated that three-quarters of emerging and re-emerging diseases are zoonoses| i.e. diseases that can be transmitted from animals to humans. Changes in eating habits| along with population growth and increasingly large populations at risk have all contributed to the upsurge of zoonoses. The fight against animal diseases is a major issue not only for animal health but also for human health| economics and politics. Veterinary services| whose work is recognized as an "international public good" by the World Bank| must be considered in terms of all those involved in animal health| including formal services| veterinarians and their assistants and organized livestock farmers| working together in close partnership. When veterinary services fail in a single country| it is the entire world that is threatened. Animal disease outbreaks are even more of a problem when they occur in countries that have no effective surveillance and preventive animal health network. Veterinary Services are an important instrument of public health and are necessary to protect the livestock economy Industrialized countries must therefore help developing countries to eradicate their animal diseases| and countries with efficient veterinary infrastructures must encourage failing countries to adopt an effective early detection and rapid response system. OIE| the World Organization for Animal Health| has developed quality standards and norms for evaluating veterinary services| and provides an interactive tool (PVS| Performance of Veterinary Services) designed to facilitate their implementation. Assessments conducted by specifically trained experts allow international donors such as the World Bank to target investments where they are most needed. 10012,2009,3,4,Survey and Performance Comparison of AMR Over PLC Standards,Automatic meter reading (AMR) is an application implemented by power utilities which is becoming increasingly important in the utilities sector. It could be included in the more general environment of demand side management| which satisfies the need for more improved communications. AMR offers a better financial return due to the inclusion of other applications. Although there are several international standards which address AMR| most deployments are currently using proprietary systems. This fact may reflect that current standards do not fully cover this area. Since the power network reaches all energy meters| a convenient way to deploy AMR is to use the power lines as a transmission medium. The present-day situation is that there is mounting pressure to deploy AMR systems in a bid to provide better management of the energy demand in a bid to reduce global warming and create a more sustainable electrical system in our environmentally conscious society. This paper is focused on analyzing different standards and specifications related to AMR over powerline communications (PLC). Furthermore| two of them are chosen| implemented| and simulated using the OPNET modeler. The main goal of the implemented applications is to obtain comparative results of the two most known standard applications in AMR over PLC. 934,2009,4,4,Survival in a long-lived territorial migrant: effects of life-history traits and ecological conditions in wintering and breeding areas,Despite its key role in population dynamics and evolutionary ecology| little is known about factors shaping survival in long-lived territorial species. Here| we assessed several hypotheses that might explain variability in survival in a migratory Spanish population of a long-lived territorial species| the Egyptian vulture Neophron percnopterus| using a 16-year monitoring period and live-encounter histories of 835 individually marked birds. Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models showed no evidence for effects of sex or nestling body condition on survival. However| the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; an indicator of primary productivity) of natal territories had positive effects on juvenile survival| indicating that environmental conditions experienced early in life can determine survival prospects. Survival increased with age (0.73 +/- 0.02 in the first 2 years to 0.78 +/- 0.03 in years 3 and 4) to later decrease when birds were five years old (0.60 +/- 0.05)| the age at which they acquire the adult plumage| abandon the communal lifestyle of juveniles| and may look for a breeding territory. At older ages| survival was higher for non-breeding (0.75 +/- 0.02) and breeding adults (0.83 +/- 0.02). Among the latter| birds that recruited into better territories had higher survival prospects. Age-specific variation in survival in this species may be related to behavioural changes linked to dispersal and recruitment into the breeding population| while survival prospects of adult birds strongly depend on breeding territory selection. These results suggest a tradeoff between recruiting soon| and thus reducing mortality costs of a long and extensive dispersal period| and trying to recruit into a good quality territory. Finally| annual survival rates for birds of all age classes were positively related with the NDVI in their African wintering grounds. Although this relationship was probably mediated by food availability| further research is needed to properly identify the limiting factors that are affecting trans-Saharan migrants| especially in light of global climate change. 9340,2009,3,4,Sustainable kerbside recycling in the municipal garbage contract,In an era of global warming| rising energy costs and increasing volumes of wastes destined for landfills and incinerators| communities should set up environmentally sustainable services that are cost-effective for their citizens and revenue generators for municipalities. A win-win garbage collection and kerbside recycling program established more than eight years ago in a small rural community in Ohio| US is still going strong. It is offering a relatively inexpensive way for waste disposal by providing an incentive-based and highly participatory kerbside recycling and at the same time bringing in substantial franchise fees for the municipal coffers. Unlike garbage contracts in most communities that are designed for only residential waste collection| this program extends disposal and recycling services to non-residential establishments. It picks up hard-to-dispose household furniture| appliances and other bulky items without additional costs to the residents. By being creative and assessing local political and socio-economic milieu| public officials can implement a comprehensive service package for taking care of their community throwaways. However| before establishing such programs in partnership with a private firm| city administrators must understand the intricacies of bid specifications customized for municipal wastes and recyclable materials. 901,2009,3,3,SUSTAINABLE USE OF VEGETAL FIBERS IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS. SOURCES OF VEGETAL FIBERS,Transition to a more sustainable economy and the consequences of the Kyoto protocol on global climate change| includes a shift of feedstock for energy and chemical industries from fossil fuels and petrochemicals to renewable resources. The use of vegetal fibers as major source of renewable resources represents a valuable alternative both from economical and environmental points of view. Traditionally| vegetal fibers are widely used in textile industry| paper manufacture| and packaging. Due to their specific properties| vegetal fibers are gained increased attention in obtaining composite materials. This paper reviews the sources of vegetal fibers that can be potentially used as reinforcements in composite materials. The structure and properties of wood and annual plant fibers are briefly discussed. The advantages of vegetal fibers as raw materials in composite applications are also presented. Some considerations regarding environmental impact of using vegetal fibers in composites are underlined. 9891,2009,2,3,Sustainable water deliveries from the Colorado River in a changing climate,The Colorado River supplies water to 27 million users in 7 states and 2 countries and irrigates over 3 million acres of farmland. Global climate models almost unanimously project that human-induced climate change will reduce runoff in this region by 10-30%. This work explores whether currently scheduled future water deliveries from the Colorado River system are sustainable under different climate-change scenarios. If climate change reduces runoff by 10%| scheduled deliveries will be missed approximate to 58% of the time by 2050. If runoff reduces 20%| they will be missed approximate to 88% of the time. The mean shortfall when full deliveries cannot be met increases from approximate to 0.5-0.7 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/yr) in 2025 to approximate to 1.2-1.9 bcm/yr by 2050 out of a request of approximate to 17.3 bcm/yr. Such values are small enough to be manageable. The chance of a year with deliveries <14.5 bcm/yr increases to 21% by midcentury if runoff reduces 20%| but such low deliveries could be largely avoided by reducing scheduled deliveries. These results are computed by using estimates of Colorado River flow from the 20th century| which was unusually wet; if the river reverts to its long-term mean| shortfalls increase another 1-1.5 bcm/yr. With either climate-change or long-term mean flows| currently scheduled future water deliveries from the Colorado River are not sustainable. However| the ability of the system to mitigate droughts can be maintained if the various users of the river find a way to reduce average deliveries. 9820,2009,2,4,Swimming activity and behaviour of European Anguilla anguilla glass eels in response to photoperiod and flow reversal and the role of energy status,To better understand migratory divergences among Anguilla anguilla glass eels| the behaviour of individuals caught at the time of their estuary entrance was studied through their response to a light:dark cycle and then to both water current reversal and light:dark cycle. In a first experiment| fish moving with the flow in response to dusk (M(+) fish) and fish that had not exhibited any movement (M(-) fish) were distinguished. Anguilla anguilla from these two groups were then individually marked and their response to water current reversal compared. M(+) individuals mainly exhibited negative rheotaxis with a tidal periodicity| whereas positive rheotaxis was mainly exhibited by M(-) individuals. Thus| M(+) A. anguilla glass eels showing negative rheotaxis appear to have the strongest propensity to migrate| the converse applies to M(-) ones showing positive rheotaxis. A small percentage of individuals (5%) were hyperactive| alternately swimming with and against the current with almost no resting phase. These fish lost c. 2 mg wet mass day(-1)| whereas individuals which were almost inactive lost c. 1 mg day(-1). Wet and dry mass changes in relation to activity levels were compared with previous experiments and it was concluded that A. anguilla glass eel energy status might be involved in differences in migratory tendencies but other factors that might be important are discussed. It is proposed that any decrease in A. anguilla glass eel energy stores associated with global warming might lead to an increase in the proportion of sedentary individuals and thus be involved in the decrease in the recruitment to freshwater habitats. 9385,2009,3,3,Synergy of rising nitrogen depositions and atmospheric CO(2) on land carbon uptake moderately offsets global warming,Increased carbon uptake of land in response to elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentration and nitrogen deposition could slow down the rate of CO(2) increase and facilitate climate change mitigation. Using a coupled model of climate| ocean| and land biogeochemistry| we show that atmospheric nitrogen deposition and atmospheric CO(2) have a strong synergistic effect on the carbon uptake of land. Our best estimate of the global land carbon uptake in the 1990s is 1.34 PgC/yr. The synergistic effect could explain 47% of this carbon uptake| which is higher than either the effect of increasing nitrogen deposition (29%) or CO(2) fertilization (24%). By 2030| rising carbon uptake on land has a potential to reduce atmospheric CO(2) concentration by about 41 ppm out of which 16 ppm reduction would come from the synergetic response of land to the CO(2) and nitrogen fertilization effects. The strength of the synergy depends largely on the cooccurrence of high nitrogen deposition regions with nonagricultural ecosystems. Our study suggests that reforestation and sensible ecosystem management in industrialized regions may have larger potential for climate change mitigation than anticipated. 9723,2009,3,2,Syngas production by CO(2) reforming of ethanol over Ni/Al(2)O(3) catalyst,CO(2) is a greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming| while ethanol is a bio-fuel that derived from biomass. Therefore| CO(2) reforming of ethanol can be a green route for syngas production. The experimental results show that CO(2) reforming of ethanol is feasible and can efficiently and selectively produce syngas with CO/H(2) ratio of I under optimized reaction conditions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9879,2009,3,4,Synthetic gas bench study of a natural gas vehicle commercial catalyst in monolithic form: On the effect of gas composition,With growing concerns about global environmental and increased focus on population health is renewed interest in transportation sector. The challenge is to find and develop cost effective ways to improve urban air quality without scarifying economy. The natural gas| as fuel| constitutes an alternative to the traditional fuels because its impact on the reduction of the global warming impact is consequent compared to the traditional fuels such as gasoline. This study deals with a study of NGV's catalysts. Natural gas vehicles' catalysts were characterized by XPS| STEM in order to determine the various active phases. The results of characterization showed that the palladium oxidized Pd(2+) was the principal active site. The experimental runs were carried out close to the real operating conditions using a sample of monolith. Numerous reactions were identified| such as NO reduction by hydrogen| carbon monoxide at low temperature and methane at high temperature. Moreover| methane reforming and water-gas shift were clearly found on commercial system. The influence of each reaction on the kinetics behaviour of the whole mixture makes difficult to uncouple the different reactions of oxidations and reductions| because the rate of these reactions was highly dependant on the reactant present in the automobile exhaust gases as well as their relative concentration. To identify each involved reaction in NGV TWC process| we remove alternatively reducing agents or oxidizing agents. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10191,2009,3,3,Tackling Regional Climate Change By Leaf Albedo Bio-geoengineering,The likelihood that continuing greenhouse-gas emissions will lead to an unmanageable degree of climate change (1] has stimulated the search for planetary-scale technological solutions for reducing global warming [2] ("geoengineering")| typically characterized by the necessity for costly new infrastructures and industries [3]. We suggest that the existing global infrastructure associated with arable agriculture can help| given that crop plants exert an important influence over the climatic energy budget [4| 5] because of differences in their albedo (solar reflectivity) compared to soils and to natural vegetation [6]. Specifically| we propose a "bio-geoengineering" approach to mitigate surface warming| in which crop varieties having specific leaf glossiness and/or canopy morphological traits are specifically chosen to maximize solar reflectivity. We quantify this by modifying the canopy albedo of vegetation in prescribed cropland areas in a global-climate model| and thereby estimate the near-term potential for bio-geoengineering to be a summertime cooling of more than 1 degrees C throughout much of central North America and midlatitude Eurasia| equivalent to seasonally off setting approximately one-fifth of regional warming due to doubling of atmospheric CO(2) [7]. Ultimately| genetic modification of plant leaf waxes or canopy structure could achieve greater temperature reductions| although better characterization of existing intraspecies variability is needed first. 9774,2009,3,4,Technological challenges for boosting coal production with environmental sustainability,The global energy requirement has grown at a phenomenon rate and the consumption of primary energy sources has been a very high positive growth. This paper focuses on the consumption of different primary energy sources and it identifies that coal will continue to remain as the prime energy source in foreseeable future. It examines the energy requirement perspective for India and demand of coal as the prime energy source. Economic development and poverty alleviation depend on securing affordable energy sources and Indian coal mining industry offers a bright future for the country's energy security| provided the industry is allowed to develop by supportive government policies and adopts latest technologies for mining. It is an irony that in-spite of having a plentiful reserves| India is not able to jack up coal production to meet its current and future demand. It discusses the strategies to be adopted for growth and meeting the coal demand. But such energy are very much concerned with environmental degradation and must be driven by contemporary managerial acumen addressing environmental and social challenges effectively The paper highlights the emissions of greenhouse gases due to burning of fossil fuels and environmental consequences of global warming and sea-level rise. Technological solutions for environment friendly coal mining and environmental laws for the abatement of environmental degradation are discussed in this paper. 9597,2009,2,4,Temperate-like stand dynamics in relict Mediterranean-fir (Abies pinsapo| Boiss.) forests from southern Spain,Introduction and statement of the research questions: Gap dynamics have been widely studied in forests of Abies spp. from temperate and boreal regions. The local microclimate and competition for light have been identified as the main factors controlling changes in species composition and canopy structure| however little is known on dynamics of such forests in Mediterranean. Experimental design and aims: We studied forest structure and dynamics of Abies pinsapo stands in southern Spain| in contrasting habitats and successional status. In addition past regeneration patterns and their relationship to canopy structure| disturbances and forest-use history were investigated. Results: Stands structure attributes were within the range described for temperate conifer biomes. The age structure revealed two main cohorts comprised of a few > 100 year-old trees and abundant younger trees established in a single recruitment event after the stands were protected in the 1950s. Initial growth-rate analyses indicated that A. pinsapo regenerated mainly in small canopy gaps| while only 15% recruited from the forest understorey. For the last ten years| basal area increment was lower than 10 cm(2)y(-1) in 91% of studied trees and growth rate differences between trees narrowed. Conclusion: Stand dynamics in A. pinsapo forests maintain general features of temperate fir forests. Tree establishment over time and current stand structure fit to known changes in forest use. Widespread growth decline trends might be linked to stand stagnation and global warming. 10192,2009,2,3,Temperature and concentration feedbacks in the carbon cycle,Feedback processes in the carbon budget are investigated in a manner that parallels the treatment of feedback processes in the energy budget. The analysis is applied to simulations with the CCCma earth system model CanESM1 using a range of emission scenarios. For the atmosphere there is a positive "carbon-temperature'' feedback which acts to increase CO(2) flux to the atmosphere as temperatures warm. There is also a negative "carbon-concentration'' feedback which acts to remove CO2 from the atmosphere via enhanced uptake of CO2 by the land and ocean as CO2 concentration increases. While the positive feedback associated with temperature change is reasonably linear and consistent as temperature increases| the feedback associated with CO2 concentration is not. The negative carbon-concentration feedback weakens with increasing CO2 concentration thereby enhancing atmospheric CO2 and accelerating global warming. The behaviour of the inferred carbon-concentration feedback is different for different emission scenarios implying a dependence on state variables other than CO2 concentration. The carbon-concentration feedback behaviour inferred for a particular scenario may not| therefore| be used to infer system behaviour for other scenarios. Citation: Boer| G. J.| and V. Arora (2009)| Temperature and concentration feedbacks in the carbon cycle| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L02704| doi:10.1029/2008GL036220. 9355,2009,2,4,Temperature and moisture sensitivities of CO(2) efflux from lowland and alpine meadow soils,This study was conducted to (i) determine if soil CO(2) efflux is more sensitive to temperature changes in alpine areas than in lowland grasslands| (ii) examine the effects of temperature and moisture on soil respiration| and (iii) evaluate the potential for change in soil carbon storage in response to global warming in different grasslands in East Asia. We collected soil samples from two different temperate grasslands| an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau| China| and a lowland grassland in Tsukuba| Japan. The CO(2) emission rate was then measured for these soil samples after they were incubated at 25 degrees C and 60% of the water holding capacity for 7 days. (i) The soil respiration rate was more sensitive to temperature change in the alpine soil than in the lowland soil. The average Q(10) was 7.6 for the alpine meadow soil but only 5.9 for the lowland soil. The increased sensitivity appears to be due| at least in part| to the soil organic carbon content and/or soil carbon to nitrogen ratio| especially in the surface layer. (ii) The relationship between the CO(2) emission rate and the soil moisture content revealed that the alpine meadow had a more clear response than the lowland soil. (iii) This study suggests that changes in soil moisture and soil temperature may have larger impacts on soil CO(2) efflux in the alpine meadow than in the lowland grassland evaluated here. 1006,2009,2,4,Temperature and salinity effects on the toxicity of common pesticides to the grass shrimp| Palaemonetes pugio,This study investigated the effects of increased temperature and salinity| two potential impacts of global climate change| on the toxicity of two common pesticides to the estuarine grass shrimp| Palaemonetes pugio. Larval and adult grass shrimp were exposed to the fungicide chlorothalonil and the insecticide Scourge (R) under standard toxicity test conditions| a 10 degrees C increase in temperature| a 10 ppt increase in salinity| and a combined increased temperature and salinity exposure. Toxicity of the fungicide chlorothalonil increased with temperature and salinity. Toxicity of the insecticide Scourge (R) also increased with temperature; while increased salinity reduced Scourge (R) toxicity| but only in adult shrimp. These findings suggest that changes in temperature and salinity may alter the toxicity of certain pesticides| and that the nature of the effect will depend on both the organism's life stage and the chemical contaminant. Standard toxicity bioassays may not be predictive of actual pesticide toxicity under variable environmental conditions| and testing under a wider range of exposure conditions could improve the accuracy of chemical risk assessments. 10002,2009,2,4,Temperature and substrate controls on microbial phospholipid fatty acid composition during incubation of grassland soils contrasting in organic matter quality,Soil incubations are often used to investigate soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and its response to increased temperature| but changes in the activity and community composition of the decomposers have rarely been included. As part of an integrated investigation into the responses of SOM components in laboratory incubations at elevated temperatures| fungal and bacterial phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) were measured in two grassland soils contrasting in SOM quality (i.e. SOM composition)| and changes in the microbial biomass and community composition were monitored. Whilst easily-degradable SOM and necromass released from soil preparation may have fuelled microbial activity at the start of the incubation| the overall activity and biomass of soil microorganisms were relatively constant during the subsequent one-year soil incubation| as indicated by the abundance of soil PLFAs| microbial respiration rate (r)| and metabolic quotient (qCO(2)). PLFAs relating to fungi and Gram-negative bacteria declined relative to Gram-positive bacteria in soils incubated at higher temperatures| presumably due to their vulnerability to disturbance and substrate constraints induced by faster exhaustion of available nutrient sources at higher temperatures. A linear correlation was found between incubation temperatures and the microbial stress ratios of cyclopropane PLFA-to-monoenoic precursor (cy17:0/16:1 omega 7c and cy19:0/18:1 omega 7c) and monoenoic-to-saturated PLFAs (mono/sat)| as a combined effect of temperature and temperature-induced substrate constraints. The microbial PLFA decay patterns and ratios suggest that SOM quality intimately controls microbial responses to global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10316,2009,2,4,Temperature controls ecosystem CO(2) exchange of an alpine meadow on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau,Alpine ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change. To address the potential variability of the responses of alpine ecosystems to climate change| we examined daily CO(2) exchange in relation to major environmental variables. A dataset was obtained from an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from eddy covariance measurements taken over 3 years (2002-2004). Path analysis showed that soil temperature at 5 cm depth (T(s5)) had the greatest effect on daily variation in ecosystem CO(2) exchange all year around| whereas photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) had a high direct effect on daily variation in CO(2) flux during the growing season. The combined effects of temperature and light regimes on net ecosystem CO(2) exchange (NEE) could be clearly categorized into three areas depending on the change in T(s5): (1) almost no NEE change irrespective of variations in light and temperature when T(s5) was below 0 degrees C; (2) an NEE increase (i.e. CO(2) released from the ecosystem) with increasing T(s5)| but little response to variation in light regime when 0 degrees C <= T(s5)<= 8 degrees C; and (3) an NEE decrease with increase in T(s5) and PPFD when T(s5) was approximately > 8 degrees C. The highest daily net ecosystem CO(2) uptake was observed under the conditions of daily mean T(s5) of about 15 degrees C and daily mean PPFD of about 50 mol m(-2) day(-1). The results suggested that temperature is the most critical determinant of CO(2) exchange in this alpine meadow ecosystem and may play an important role in the ecosystem carbon budget under future global warming conditions. 9587,2009,2,4,Temperature dependence of global precipitation extremes,Data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) covering the period 1979-2007 are examined for changes of precipitation extremes as a function of global mean temperature by using a new method which focuses on interannual differences rather than time series. We find that the top 10% bin of precipitation intensity increases by about 95% for each degree Kelvin (K) increase in global mean temperature| while 30%-60% bins decrease by about 20% K(-1). The global average precipitation intensity increases by about 23% K(-1)| substantially greater than the increase of about 7% K(-1) in atmospheric water-holding capacity estimated by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The large increase of precipitation intensity is qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis that the precipitation intensity should increase by more than 7% K(-1) because of the additional latent heat released from the increased moisture. Our results also provide an independent evidence in support for significant increases in the number and/or size of strong global tropical cyclones. However an ensemble of 17 latest generation climate models estimates an increase of only about 2% K(-1) in precipitation intensity| about one order of magnitude smaller than our value| suggesting that the risk of extreme precipitation events due to global warming is substantially greater than that estimated by the climate models. Citation: Liu| S. C.| C. Fu| C.-J. Shiu| J.-P. Chen| and F. Wu (2009)| Temperature dependence of global precipitation extremes| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L17702| doi:10.1029/2009GL040218. 9699,2009,4,4,Temperature Discontinuity Caused by Relocation of Meteorological Stations in Taiwan,With global warming upon us| it has become increasingly important to identify the extent of this warming trend and in doing so be able to rank mean temperature changes in particular seasons and years. This requires a need for homogeneous climate data| which do not reflect individual anomalies in instruments| station locations or local environments (urbanization). Accurate homogeneous long-term meteorological data helps show how temperature variations have truly occurred in the climate. Many possible factors contribute to artificial abrupt changes or sharp discontinuities in long time series data| such as the impact of station relocation| changes in observational schedules and instrumentation. Homogeneity adjustments of in situ climate data are very important processes for preparing observational data to be used in further analysis and research. Users require a well-documented history of stations to make appropriate homogeneity adjustments because precise historical background records of stations can provide researchers with knowledge of when artificial discontinuity has occurred and its causes. Without such detailed historical data for each meteorological station| abrupt changes are difficult to interpret. Unfortunately| no homogeneity adjustments for temperature records have been conducted previously in Taiwan| and present available sources of the history of Taiwan's meteorological stations exhibit inconsistencies. In this study| information pertaining to station history| especially relocation records| is provided. This information is essential for analysis of continuous time series data for temperature and climate warming studies. Temperature data from several stations is given in this study to show how artificial discontinuity occurs due to station relocation. Although there is no homogeneous adjusted climate data provided in this preliminary work| the summarizing of information regarding station relocations should be of assistance to future data users wanting to determine whether or not abrupt changes in climate data are artificial. 9323,2009,2,4,Temperature influences the performance and effectiveness of field and laboratory strains of the ichneumonid parasitoid| Campoletis chlorideae,To understand the influence of temperature on host-parasitoid interactions as a consequence of climatic change| we studied development| survival| and fecundity of field and laboratory strains of the Helicoverpa armigera larval endoparasitoid| Campoletis chlorideae at five different temperatures under laboratory conditions. Post-embryonic development period and degree-days required for completing the life cycle by both the strains decreased by 2.5 and 1.5 folds at 27A degrees C compared to 18A degrees C. Post embryonic development period showed a negative (r = -0.99| P < 0.001) and the development rate a positive (r = 0.99| P < 0.001) association with an increase in temperature. However| no parasitoid larvae survived in H. armigera larvae reared at 12 and 35A degrees C after parasitization| suggesting that temperatures a parts per thousand yen35A degrees C as a result of global warming will be lethal for development and survival of immature stages of C. chlorideae. Adult longevity was negatively associated (r = -0.91 to -0.96| P < 0.001) with temperatures between 12 and 35A degrees C. The parasitoid adults stored at 12A degrees C survived for longer period and exhibited higher fecundity than those kept at 27A degrees C| but the efficiency of parasitism and adult emergence were quite low. Sex ratio of the progeny at 12A degrees C was highly male-biased than the insects kept at 27A degrees C. Laboratory strain of the parasitoid exhibited better survival| and the adults lived longer than the field strain at 18A degrees C than at 27A degrees C. Therefore| C. chlorideae adults stored at 18A degrees C could be used for parasitism| while the immature stages should be reared at 27A degrees C for mass production of the parasitoid for biological control of H. armigera. 10202,2009,2,4,Temperature oscillation coupled with fungal community shifts can modulate warming effects on litter decomposition,Diel temperature oscillations are a nearly ubiquitous phenomenon| with amplitudes predicted to change along with mean temperatures under global-warming scenarios. Impact assessments of global warming have largely disregarded diel temperature oscillations| even though key processes in ecosystems| such as decomposition| may be affected. We tested the effect of a 5 degrees C temperature increase with and without diel oscillations on litter decomposition by fungal communities in stream microcosms. Five temperature regimes with identical thermal sums (degree days) were applied: constant 38 and 8 degrees C; diel temperature oscillations of 5 degrees C around each mean; and oscillations of 9 degrees C around 8 degrees C. Temperature oscillations around 8 degrees C (warming scenario)| but not 3 degrees C (ambient scenario)| accelerated decomposition by 18% (5 degrees C oscillations) and 31% (9 degrees C oscillations)| respectively| compared to the constant temperature regime at 8 degrees C. Community structure was not affected by oscillating temperatures| although the rise in mean temperature from 38 to 8 degrees C consistently shifted the relative abundance of species. A simple model using temperature-growth responses of the dominant fungal decomposers accurately described the experimentally observed pattern| indicating that the effect of temperature oscillations on decomposition in our warming scenario was caused by strong curvilinear responses of species to warming at low temperature| particularly of the species becoming most abundant at 8 degrees C (Tetracladium marchalianum). These findings underscore the need to consider species-specific temperature characteristics in concert with changes in communities when assessing consequences of global warming on ecosystem processes. 916,2009,2,4,Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought,Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon| water| and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates-temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress ( cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (approximate to 4 degrees C) shortened the time to drought-induced mortality in Pinus edulis (pinon shortened pine) trees by nearly a third| with temperature-dependent differences in cumulative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in precipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents ( e. g.| bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demonstrate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exacerbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature| our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off. 9915,2009,2,3,Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in different ecosystems in China,Understanding the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature change and its impacting factors is an important base for accurately evaluating the response of terrestrial carbon balance to future climatic change| and thus has received much recent attention. In this study| we synthesized 161 field measurement data from 52 published papers to quantify temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in different Chinese ecosystems and its relationship with climate factors| such as temperature and precipitation. The results show that the observed Q(10) value (the factor by which respiration rates increase for a 10 degrees C increase in temperature) is strongly dependent on the soil temperature measurement depth. Generally| Q(10) significantly increased with the depth (0 cm| 5 cm| and 10 cm) of soil temperature measuring point. Different ecosystem types also exhibit different Q(10) values. In response to soil temperature at the depth of 5 cm| alpine meadow and tundra has the largest Q(10) value with magnitude of 3.05 +/- 1.06| while the Q(10) value of evergreen broadleaf forests is approximately half that amount (Q(10)=1.81 +/- 0.43). Spatial correlation analysis also shows that the Q(10) value of forest ecosystems is significantly and negatively correlated with mean annual temperature (R = -0.51| P < 0.001) and mean annual precipitation (R = -0.5| P < 0.001). This result not only implies that the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration will decline under continued global warming| but also suggests that such acclimation of soil respiration to warming should be taken into account in forecasting future terrestrial carbon cycle and its feedback to climate system. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10156,2009,2,4,Temperature tolerance and survival of intertidal populations of the seagrass Zostera noltii (Hornemann) in Southern Europe (Ria Formosa| Portugal),The dwarf seagrass Zostera noltii is an important primary producer in Atlantic coastal ecosystems from Mauritania to southern Norway and the Mediterranean Sea. Sessile intertidal organisms existing at the interface between marine and terrestrial environments may be particularly vulnerable to environmental change. In this study| we asked how near to thermal tolerance limits natural populations of Z. noltii are in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon system in southern Portugal. We recorded the maximum temperatures in the Ria Formosa during the 2007 summer| and conducted experiments to determine the sub-lethal temperature of Z. noltii shoots sampled at two sites located at different tidal heights. Mortality rates and photosynthetic performance were recorded within a range of heat shock temperatures between 35 and 41A degrees C. Survival was recorded a parts per thousand currency sign37A degrees C| while higher temperatures led to a sudden drop in photosynthetic capacity followed by mortality (shoot loss) that occurred more rapidly with increasing temperatures. At 39A degrees C and above| the rate of shoot mortality in both sites was close to 100%| occurring between 5 and 13 days after the heat shock. Survival was ca. 95 and 90% at 35 and 37A degrees C| respectively. From these results for Z. noltii populations in the Ria Formosa we estimated sub-lethal temperature to be approximately 38A degrees C for Z. noltii| close to the maximum of 36A degrees C recorded in the summer 2007. Considering predicted trajectories in the coming decades| these results raise concern as to the future viability of intertidal Z. noltii populations near the southernmost edge of their distribution. 9878,2009,2,4,Temperature| but not pH| compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios,Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot| where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios| we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20-26 degrees C| pH 7.6-8.2) were tested in all combinations for the 'business-as-usual' scenario| with 20 degrees C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions| +4 degrees C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6 degrees C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6 degrees C. At 26 degrees C| development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development| we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios| with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification| embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean. 890,2009,2,4,Temperature-dependent sex determination and global change: are some species at greater risk?,In species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD)| global climate change may result in a strong sex ratio bias that could lead to extinction. The relationship between sex ratio and egg incubation at constant temperature in TSD species is characterized by two parameters: the pivotal temperature (P) and the transitional range of temperature that produces both sexes (TRT). Here| we show that the proportion of nests producing both sexes is positively correlated to the width of the TRT by a correlative approach from sex ratio data collected in the literature and by simulations of TSD using a mechanistic model. From our analyses| we predict that species with a larger TRT should be more likely to evolve in response to new thermal conditions| thus putting them at lower risk to global change. 10372,2009,2,4,TEMPORAL CHANGES IN EXTREMELY DAMAGING STORMS,Records of extremely damaging storms in the United States during the years 1949-2006 were assessed to define their temporal distribution. A change in climate due to global warming may lead to more weather extremes| including storms. The objective of| this study was to learn if the frequency of highly damaging storms| those causing >$100 million and >$1 billion in property losses| had increased. The number of storms at both loss levels has increased dramatically since 1990| and storm-related losses also increased. Much of the increased loss and greater storminess was due to several recent hurricanes| which caused losses >$1 billion. Four possible explanations are raised. First| storm measurement and data collection have improved over time. The increases may also reflect natural variations in climate or a shift in climate due to global warming. A fourth reason is that society has become more vulnerable to storm damages. 10199,2009,4,3,Temporal evolution of measured climate forcing agents at South Pole| Antarctica,Greenhouse gas (GHG; mainly CO(2)| CH(4)| N(2)O| CFC-11 and CFC-12) measurements for 22 years (1983-2004) have been analysed to evaluate the radiative forcing (RF) and temporal evolution at the South Pole. About 20% increase in growth rate of CO(2) has been observed during 1992-2004 compared to 1983-91. However| remarkable deceleration in the growth rate of CH4| CFC-11 and CFC-12 has been observed. CO2 radiative forcing has increased by similar to 49% during 2004 for 10% increase in CO(2) concentration during the last 22 years. RF due to CH(4) was found to be 0.47 W m(-2) in 1999 and since then has remained almost constant through 2004. The net RF has been observed to increase by 0.7 W m(-2) during 2004 compared to 1983| which corresponds to similar to 38% increase in the last 22 years. Growth rate of net RF decreased by similar to 22% during 1990-2004| compared to the growth rate during 1983-90. A global warming simulation made using the EdGCM model shows an increase in surface air temperature and sea surface temperature of about 1.7 degrees C and 1 degrees C respectively| in 2050 compared to 1958. In response to change in GHGs from 1958 to 2050| warming over the higher latitudes is greater than in the tropics and also increase in minimum temperature is greater than the increase in maximum temperature. Similarly| up to 50% change in snow-ice cover over some of the regions in the higher latitudes is observed with this simulation. 731,2009,5,4,Temporal latitudinal-gradient dynamics and tropical instability of deep-sea species diversity,A benthic microfaunal record from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean over the past four glacial-interglacial cycles was investigated to understand temporal dynamics of deep-sea latitudinal species diversity gradients (LSDGs). The results demonstrate unexpected instability and high amplitude fluctuations of species diversity in the tropical deep ocean that are correlated with orbital-scale oscillations in global climate: Species diversity is low during glacial and high during interglacial periods. This implies that climate severely influences deep-sea diversity| even at tropical latitudes| and that deep-sea LSDGs| while generally present for the last 36 million years| were weakened or absent during glacial periods. Temporally dynamic LSDGs and unstable tropical diversity require reconsideration of current ecological hypotheses about the generation and maintenance of biodiversity as they apply to the deep sea| and underscore the potential vulnerability and conservation importance of tropical deep-sea ecosystems. 9957,2009,4,3,Temporal Trends in Estimates of Reference Evapotranspiration over India,Evapotranspiration (ET) is likely to be greatly affected by global warming because of the dependence of ET on surface temperature. The increasing atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and other greenhouse gases is expected to increase precipitation and evaporation proportionally. However| a few studies have shown a decreasing trend for evaporation over the last 50 years globally. In India| earlier works showed that there was a significant increasing temporal trend in surface temperature and a decreasing trend in grass reference ET (ETo). To study the temporal trend of ETo along with its regionwise spatial variation| 32 years (1971-2002) monthly meteorological data were collected for 133 selected stations evenly distributed over different agro-ecological regions (AERs) of India. ETo was estimated by the globally accepted Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman Monteith (PM) method (FAO-56 PM). These ETo values were then analyzed by a nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test (with modified effective sample size approach for serially correlated data) and Sen slope to determine the existence and magnitude of any statistically significant trend over the time period considered in this study. The same analysis was also performed on governing meteorological variables to identify the cause of existence of such trend in ETo. A significant decreasing trend was found in ETo all over India during the study period| which was mainly caused by a significant increase in the relative humidity and a consistent significant decrease in the wind speed throughout the country. However| a general increase in rainfall was not found in recent years. 10187,2009,2,3,Terrestrial carbon-cycle feedback to climate warming: experimental evidence on plant regulation and impacts of biofuel feedstock harvest,Feedback between global carbon (C) cycles and climate change is one of the major uncertainties in projecting future global warming. Coupled carbon-climate models all demonstrated a positive feedback between terrestrial C cycle and climate warming. The positive feedback results from decreased net primary production (NPP) in most models and increased respiratory C release by all the models under climate warming. Those modeling results present interesting hypotheses of future states of ecosystems and climate| which are yet to be tested against experimental results. In this study| we examined ecosystem C balance and its major components in a warming and clipping experiment in a North America tallgrass prairie. Infrared heaters have been used to elevate soil temperature by approximately 2 degrees C continuously since November 1999. Clipping once a year was to mimic hay or biofuel feedstock harvest. On average of data over 6 years from 2000 to 2005| estimated NPP under warming increased by 14% without clipping (P < 0.05) and 26% with clipping (P < 0.05) in comparison with that under control. Warming did not result in instantaneous increases in soil respiration in 1999 and 2000 but significantly increased it by approximately 8% without clipping (P < 0.05) from 2001 to 2005. Soil respiration under warming increased by 15% with clipping (P < 0.05) from 2000 to 2005. Warming-stimulated plant biomass production| due to enhanced C(4) dominance| extended growing seasons| and increased nitrogen uptake and use efficiency| offset increased soil respiration| leading to no change in soil C storage at our site. However| biofuel feedstock harvest by biomass removal resulted in significant soil C loss in the clipping and control plots but was carbon negative in the clipping and warming plots largely because of positive interactions of warming and clipping in stimulating root growth. Our results demonstrate that plant production processes play a critical role in regulation of ecosystem carbon-cycle feedback to climate change in both the current ambient and future warmed world. 10328,2009,2,4,The 2006 California Heat Wave: Impacts on Hospitalizations and Emergency Department Visits,BACKGROUND: Climate models project that heat waves will increase in frequency and severity. Despite many studies of mortality from heat waves| few studies have examined morbidity. OBJECTIVES: In this study we investigated whether any age or race/ethnicity groups experienced increased hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits overall or for selected illnesses during the 2006 California heat wave. METHODS: We aggregated county-level hospitalizations and ED visits for all causes and for 10 cause groups into six geographic regions of California. We calculated excess morbidity and rate ratios (RRs) during the heat wave (15 July to 1 August 2006) and compared these data with those of a reference period (8-14 July and 12-22 August 2006). RESULTS: During the heat wave| 16|166 excess ED visits and 1|182 excess hospitalizations occurred statewide. ED visits for heat-related causes increased across the state [RR = 6.30; 95% confidence interval (CI)| 5.67-7.01]| especially in the Central Coast region| which includes San Francisco. Children (0-4 years of age) and the elderly (>= 65 years of age) were at greatest risk. ED visits also showed significant increases for acute renal failure| cardiovascular diseases| diabetes| electrolyte imbalance| and nephritis. We observed significantly elevated RRs for hospitalizations for heat-related ill-nesses (RR = 10.15; 95% CI| 7.79-13.43)| acute renal Failure| electrolyte imbalance| and nephritis. CONCLUSIONS: The 2006 California heat wave had a substantial effect on morbidity| including regions with relatively modest temperatures. This suggests that population acclimatization and adaptive capacity influenced risk. By better understanding these impacts and population vulnerabilities| local communities can improve heat wave preparedness to cope with a globally warming future. 10113,2009,2,2,The Anthropocene- a 200 year record of human driven geological impacts: prelude to global climate changes and implications for South Asia,Human activities now rival natural geological processes in transforming the Earth's surface and initiating the current global warming phase and inevitable future climate change. The record of the past 200 years of this impact| which started off with the fossil fuel driven industrial revolution| is designated the Anthropocene. This article highlights how the change is occurring globally and also focuses on the possible effects on Sri Lanka and its people| especially with regard to water availability| soil degradation and nutrient depletion| food security| ecosystem disruption and the increasing intensity of natural hazards. A harmonious Earth system is conditional on achieving a stable population and sustainable use of resources. poorly regulated exploitation of basic resources| which are essential for life| could result in civilizational overshoot and collapse as has happened in the past. Climate change is an undeniable reality and constitutes the most critical challenge to global society and its security. It is within the capability of modem science| technology and proven socio-economic policies to reverse the negative trends and achieve a sustainable world. This will require great political will and leadership by all nations.
9312,2009,3,3,The Applicability of Natural Ventilation - Technical Editorial,It is only comparatively recently| since the development of mechanical ventilation and refrigeration| that it has become possible to completely control the air quality and thermal environment inside buildings| irrespective of outdoor conditions. However| such control is an energy intensive process that requires reliable energy supply. Concerns about future security of conventional supply| combined with the impact of fossil fuel emissions on global warming| has resulted in renewed emphasis on building energy efficiency. In achieving improved performance| natural ventilation and passive cooling methods are becoming important components of modern architecture in many countries. This editorial reviews some of the issues and barriers associated with natural ventilation and outlines recent progress. It also summarises the European Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) which| again| has an important impact on ventilation methodology in Europe. It is concluded that| for various reasons| natural ventilation is having a difficult time in gaining regulatory acceptance| even although there is strong demand for passive solutions from both private and public bodies. In the United Kingdom it is shown that| although a number of key official agencies strongly support the use of natural ventilation| the current Building Regulations and moves towards zero carbon buildings incorrectly acts against the benefit of natural ventilation. This| it is argued| is because a holistic view of total carbon emissions is not being taken into account. Ultimately it is the absolute CO(2) emissions that impact on the environment but this is largely missing from the narrow objectives set by various regulations| standards and calculation techniques. 9659,2009,2,4,The Arctic as a model for anticipating| preventing| and mitigating climate change impacts on host-parasite interactions,Climate change is influencing the structure and function of natural ecosystems around the world| including host-parasite interactions and disease emergence. Understanding the influence of climate change on infectious disease at temperate and tropical latitudes can be challenging because of numerous complicating biological| social| and political factors. Arctic and Subarctic regions may be particularly good models for unraveling the impacts of climate change on parasite ecology because they are relatively simple systems with low biological diversity and few other complicating anthropogenic factors. We examine some changing dynamics of host-parasite interactions at high latitudes and use these to illustrate a framework for approaching understanding| preventing| and mitigating climate change impacts on infectious disease| including zoonoses| in wildlife. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. 794,2009,3,3,The biofuel potential of municipal solid waste,The world in the 21st century is facing a dual crisis of increasing waste and global climate change. Substituting fossil fuels with waste biomass-derived cellulosic ethanol is a promising strategy to simultaneously meet part of our energy needs| mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions| and manage municipal solid waste (MSW). However| the global potential of MSW as an energy source is as yet unquantified. Here| we report increasing trends of MSW generation| and waste biomass-derived cellulosic ethanol potentials in relation to socio-economic development across 173 countries| and show that globally| up to 82.9 billion litres of waste paper-derived cellulosic ethanol can be produced worldwide| replacing 5.36% of gasoline consumption| with accompanying GHG emissions savings of between 29.2% and 86.1%. 10147,2009,2,4,The biotic effects of climate change,Humans are part of the biosphere and dependent upon it. The impact of climate change on 'ecosystem services' is therefore of extreme concern. Many studies demonstrate unequivocally that global warming is shifting the distribution of animal and plant species| affecting the composition not only of natural ecosystems but of agricultural ones as well| and also altering the range and impact of pathogenic organisms. The future trajectory of such complex processes is hard to map accurately| but even conservative estimates predict substantial species extinctions and changes in regional productivity. There is still a chance to significantly mitigate these effects| however| if urgent measures are taken. The biotic effects of climate change are strongly exacerbated by ongoing habitat destruction| which no less urgently needs to be halted or reversed by concerted international action. In terms of its rate and its human causation| the present crisis is not analogous to past 'natural' events. 9375,2009,4,4,The Changing Annual Distribution of Rainfall in the Drainage Area of the River Tisza during the Second Half of the 21(st) Century,As a consequence of the global warming process observable world-wide| the climate of the Carpathian basin also undergoes a change. This research focuses on the analysis of the drainage area of the Tisza (157 200 km(2))| and aims at the representation of the expected change of the annual distribution of the amount of drainage in both spatial and temporal terms| with the help of the three-dimensional regional circulation model (RFMO 5.1). The horizontal grid of the results is 0|44 degrees. The applied| future-related data were modelled by the utilization of the SRES-A1B scenario. The examined period of the changing rainfall in the drainage area involves 30 years (2061-2090). Based on the compared data of the scenario and the control period (1961-1990)| the signal of the concerned territory's climatic change was defined. As a consequence of the significant orographical dissection of the drainage area| the expected extent of change in the amount of rainfall is going to be different from both spatial and temporal aspects. We hope to support the appropriate work of the experts of different science fields and of various nationalities. 9526,2009,4,3,The CLIVAR C20C project: selected twentieth century climate events,We use a simple methodology to test whether a set of atmospheric climate models with prescribed radiative forcings and ocean surface conditions can reproduce twentieth century climate variability. Globally| rapid land surface warming since the 1970s is reproduced by some models but others warm too slowly. In the tropics| air-sea coupling allows models to reproduce the Southern Oscillation but its strength varies between models. We find a strong relationship between the Southern Oscillation in global temperature and the rate of global warming| which could in principle be used to identify models with realistic climate sensitivity. This relationship and a weak response to ENSO suggests weak sensitivity to changes in sea surface temperature in some of the models used here. In the tropics| most models reproduce part of the observed Sahel drought. In the extratropics| models do not reproduce the observed increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation in response to forcings| through internal variability| or as a combination of both. 10346,2009,3,4,The CO(2) and SO(2) capture capability of two Greek limestones during repeated thermal cycles,In the present study| two Greek limestones from the Megalopolis and Florina areas were used to capture CO(2) and SO(2). The regeneration ability and decay of the limestone samples were investigated through sorption-calcination cycles in a thermogravimetric analyser operated at ambient pressure. The effects of the sorption time (3| 8 and 30 min)| reaction temperature (750 degrees C and 850 degrees C) and particle size (38-53| 150-250 and 500-800 mu m) on the sorbent performance were examined. The two limestones demonstrated similar CO(2) capture capability. Florina limestone decayed less after a specific number of cycles. When the particle size of the samples increased and the carbonation temperature was reduced| less CO(2) capture was observed for both samples. The presence of SO(2) inhibited the sorption ability of both limestones. Florina limestone was found to exhibit a higher sorption ability and lower decay when CO(2) and SO(2) were present simultaneously. 936,2009,2,2,The coastal winds off western subtropical South America in future climate scenarios,The west coast of subtropical South America is characterized by a semi-arid climate and very persistent southerly winds that often exhibit a low-level jet structure. The nearly alongshore flow forces coastal and offshore upwelling of cold| nutrient-rich waters| thus supporting one of the Most productive marine ecosystems in the world and a wealth of fishery resources. Therefore| the evaluation of the changes in the coastal winds in future climate is a key step to predict the regional environmental impacts of global climate change linked to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) increases. In this work we document the wind changes between present-day conditions and those projected for the end of the 21st century under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (A2 and B2). We first estimate and interpret the changes of the wind field over the southeast Pacific from 15 coupled atmosphere-ocean Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Very consistent among the GCMs is the strengthening of the southerlies along the Subtropical coast as a result of a marked increase in Surface pressure farther south. We then examine the coastal wind changes in more detail using the Providing REgional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model (RCM) with 25 kin horizontal resolution nested in the Hadley Centre Atmospheric global Model (HadAM3). PRECIS results indicate that the largest southerly wind increase occurs between 37-41 degrees S during spring and summer| expanding the upwelling-favourable regime in that region| at the same time that coastal jets at subtropical latitudes will become more frequent and last longer than current events. During fall and winter| the strengthening of the southerlies occurs at subtropical latitudes maintaining a mean jet year-round. Finally| we discuss the possibility that strengthening of the coastal southerlies might actually lead to a relative regional cooling even as the world as a whole continues to warm up. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society 9720,2009,2,4,The comparative field body temperature among Liolaemus lizards: Testing the static and the labile hypotheses,Two competing hypotheses have been suggested to explain thermal sensitivity of lizards to environmental conditions. These are the static and the labile hypotheses. The static hypothesis posits that thermal physiology is evolutionary conservative and consequently relatively insensitive to directional selection. Contrarily| the labile hypothesis states that thermal physiology does respond readily to directional selection in some lizard taxa. In this paper| we tested both hypotheses among species of Liolaemus lizards. The genus Liolaemus is diverse with about 200 species| being broadly distributed from central Peru to Tierra del Fuego at the southern end of South America. Data of field body temperature (T(b)) from Liolaemus species were collected from the literature. Based on the distributional range of the species we also collected data of mean annual ambient temperatures. We observed that both the traditional analysis and the phylogenetic approach indicate that in the genus Liolaemus T(b) of species varies in a manner that is consistent with ecological gradient of ambient temperature. The data suggest that the thermal physiology of Liolaemus lizards is evolutionarily flexible| and that this plasticity has been partially responsible for the colonization of a wide array of thermal environments. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9954,2009,3,4,The contribution of PAS 2050 to the evolution of international greenhouse gas emission standards,The assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arising from products (goods and services) is emerging as a high profile application of life cycle assessment (LCA)| with an increasing desire from retailers and other supply chain organizations to better understand| and in some cases communicate| the carbon footprint of products. Publicly Available Specification 2050:2008| Specification for the assessment of the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of goods and services| addresses the single-impact category of global warming to provide a standardized and simplified implementation of process LCA methods for assessing GHG emissions from products. This paper briefly reviews the development process followed for PAS 2050| before examining the treatment of GHG-specific contribution of PAS 2050 to product carbon footprinting. PAS 2050 was jointly sponsored by the Carbon Trust and the UK Department for Environment| Food and Rural Affairs and was published by the British Standards Institution on 29 October 2008. An independent steering group oversaw the development of the specification| including the establishment of an expert workgroup program| comprehensive international consultation| and expert input on the requirements of the specification. The development process for PAS 2050 resulted in a specification that includes specific requirements that limit the interpretation of the underlying LCA approach to product carbon footprinting. These requirements| including goal setting and life cycle inventory assessment| aspects of system boundary identification and temporal aspects of GHG emissions| clarify the approach to be taken by organizations implementing product carbon footprinting| and simplify the application of LCA procedures in relation to product carbon footprinting. Assessment of the emissions arising from the life cycle of products has a clear international component| and delivering consistent results across the supply chain requires the application of consistent methods. There is an emerging recognition that further standardization of methods for product carbon footprinting is needed| and the specific requirements resulting from the PAS 2050 development process make a valuable contribution across a range of GHG assessment issues. The widespread interest in PAS 2050 from individuals and organizations| together with the development of similar guidance by other organizations| confirmed that there is a need for clarification| certainty| and requirements in the field of product carbon footprint analysis. The use of PAS 2050 to refine| clarify| and simplify existing LCA methods and standards has resulted in specific approaches to key GHG assessment issues being developed; it is important that future standards development work considers the impact of these approaches and their further refinement. It is the consumption of goods and services by individuals around the world that drives global GHG emission| and PAS 2050 is a first attempt to provide integrated| consistent approaches that directly address the role of consumption at the product level in contributing to GHG emissions. Climate science and GHG assessment techniques are both evolving areas and it will be necessary to review the approach taken by PAS 2050 in the future: a formal review process for PAS 2050 will commence towards the end of 2009 and practitioners are encouraged to participate in this review process. 9330,2009,2,4,The different strategies of Pinus sylvestris and Lark sibirica to deal with summer drought in a northern Mongolian forest-steppe ecotone suggest a future superiority of pine in a warming climate,Pinus sylvesteris L. is locally common at the lower forest line to the steppe in Mongolia's taiga forests| which are otherwise dominated by Larix sibirica Ledeb. The factors responsible for the occurrence of pine patches in the forest-steppe ecotone are insufficiently studied. We analyzed the response of A sylvestris to summer drought in the western Khentey Mountains| northern Mongolia| by measuring shoot water potentials and exemplary measurements of delta(13)C signatures| CO(2)-H(2)O gas exchange| chlorophyll fluorescence yield| and concentrations of nonstructural carbohydrates. Pine trees growing in the forest-steppe ecotone show conservative water consumption with a sensitive stomatal regulation and relatively constant shoot water potentials under dry conditions. This might be a selective advantage for P. sylvestris against increasing aridity driven by global warming| since the main competitor| L. sibirica| often suffers from drought stress even under the current climate in the study area. 738,2009,2,3,The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional Labor Productivity,Global climate change will increase outdoor and indoor heat loads| and may impair health and productivity for millions of working people. This study applies physiological evidence about effects of heat| climate guidelines for safe work environments. climate modeling| and global distributions of working populations to estimate the impact of 2 climate scenarios on future labor productivity. In most regions| climate change will decrease labor productivity| under the simple assumption of no specific adaptation. By the 2080s| the greatest absolute losses of population-based labor work capacity (in the range 11% to 27%) are seen under the A2 Scenario in Southeast Asia| Andean and Central America| and the Caribbean. Increased occupational heat exposure due to climate change may significantly impact on labor productivity and costs unless preventive measures are implemented. Workers may need to work longer hours| or more workers may be required. to achieve the same output and there will be economic costs of lost production and/or occupational health interventions against heat exposures. 840,2009,4,4,The direct regeneration hypothesis in northern forests,Question Can the direct regeneration hypothesis (DRH) be used to predict post-disturbance regeneration after fire| wind disturbance| and clearcutting in northern forests? Do life-history traits such as regeneration strategy and shade tolerance influence post-disturbance regeneration success of tree species? Location Northern forests in North America. Methods A meta-analysis was conducted by collecting published data on pre- and post-disturbance stand compositional characteristics in the northern forests. For each tree species| compositional difference (CD) was calculated as the difference between basal area proportions of the post- and pre-disturbance stands| but for post-disturbance stands < 25 years of age| post-disturbance proportions were calculated based on relative stem density. Results Species response to disturbances was best explained by regeneration strategy| while disturbance type had no effect on CD. The proportion of broadleaf trees with either strong or weak vegetative reproduction ability increased after all disturbances. Serotinous species had CD values not significantly different from zero after fire| while CD for semi-serotinous species was negative. The post-disturbance proportions of non-serotinous conifers decreased after all forms of disturbance. Conclusions All disturbances promote broadleaf trees| regardless of regeneration strategy (suckering| sprouting| or seeding). The DRH is supported for conifers with serotinous cones after fire. Fire causes local extinction of non-serotinous conifers| while wind and clearcutting only decrease the proportion of non-serotinous conifers because of partial survival of seed sources and advanced regeneration. This study suggests that increasing stand-replacing disturbances associated with global climate change will promote broadleaf trees in northern forests. 10044,2009,3,4,The dynamics of optimal abatement strategies for multiple pollutants-An illustration in the Greenhouse,We investigate optimal abatement strategies for cumulative and interacting pollutants. We show that different decay rates can cause non-monotonic behavior in the optimal paths of emissions| the aggregate level of pollution| and even the relative optimal price for emissions. This contrasts strikingly with the case of a single pollutant. The results are illustrated by numerical simulations| first for instructive fictitious and second for more realistic parameters mimicking the greenhouse problem. The results add to the skepticism existing about whether the concept of global warming potential is a useful indicator for the optimal relative abatement of different GHGs over time. In fact| we show that a constant index suitable for comparing dynamically different pollutants with respect to their economic harmfulness does not exist. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9619,2009,4,4,The dynamics of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature forcing of Sahel drought,Given the pronounced warming in the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during the second half of the twentieth century and the empirical relationship between the Indian Ocean SST and Sahel summer precipitation| we investigate the mechanisms underlying this relationship using the GFDL atmospheric model AM2.0 to simulate the equilibrium and transient response to the warming of the Indian Ocean. Equatorial wave dynamics| in particular the westward propagating equatorial Rossby waves| communicates the signal of tropospheric warming and stabilization from the Indian Ocean to the African continent. The stabilization associated with the Rossby wave front acts to suppress the convection. Feedbacks with local precipitation and depletion of moisture amplify the dynamically induced subsidence. While this stabilization mechanism is expected to operate in climate change response| the future prospects for the Sahelian climate under global warming are complicated by the intricate sensitivities to the SSTs from different ocean basins and to the direct radiative forcing of greenhouse gases. 9990,2009,2,4,The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases,The projected global increase in the distribution and prevalence of infectious diseases with climate change suggests a pending societal crisis. The subject is increasingly attracting the attention of health professionals and climate-change scientists| particularly with respect to malaria and other vector-transmitted human diseases. The result has been the emergence of a crisis discipline| reminiscent of the early phases of conservation biology. Latitudinal| altitudinal| seasonal| and interannual associations between climate and disease along with historical and experimental evidence suggest that climate| along with many other factors| can affect infectious diseases in a nonlinear fashion. However| although the globe is significantly warmer than it was a century ago| there is little evidence that climate change has already favored infectious diseases. While initial projections suggested dramatic future increases in the geographic range of infectious diseases| recent models predict range shifts in disease distributions| with little net increase in area. Many factors can affect infectious disease| and some may overshadow the effects of climate. 907,2009,3,3,The economics of tidal energy,Concern over global climate change has led policy makers to accept the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This in turn has led to a large growth in clean renewable generation for electricity production. Much emphasis has been on wind generation as it is among the most advanced forms of renewable generation| however| its variable and relatively unpredictable nature result in increased challenges for electricity system operators. Tidal generation on the other hand is almost perfectly forecastable and as such may be a viable alternative to wind generation. This paper calculates the break-even capital cost for tidal generation on a real electricity system. An electricity market model is used to determine the impact of tidal generation on the operating schedules of the conventional units on the system and on the resulting cycling costs| emissions and fuel savings. It is found that for tidal generation to produce positive net benefits for the case study| the capital costs would have to be less than epsilon 510|000 per MW installed which is currently an unrealistically low capital cost. Thus| it is concluded that tidal generation is not a viable option for the case system at the present time. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9691,2009,2,4,The effect of an early-season short-term heat pulse on plant recruitment in the Arctic,Climate change will cause large-scale plant migration. Seedling recruitment constitutes a bottleneck in the migration process but is itself climate-dependent. We tested the effect of warming on early establishment of three Arctic pioneer species| while holding other environmental variables constant. Seeds and bulbils were sown in artificial gaps in dry Arctic tundra and subjected to a 13-day heating of the soil surface by 2-8A degrees C| simulating temperature increases ranging from the general summer warming to heat waves projected to occur more frequently with global warming. All species showed decreased establishment with increasing soil surface temperature. The short-term heat pulse decreased establishment of Polygonum viviparum and Saxifraga cernua| whereas establishment of Cerastium alpinum decreased with temperature due to more permanent natural variation in micro-climate. The treatment effects increased by the quadrat of the temperature increase. Warming and in particular heat waves may result in declining establishment of Arctic plants in dry tundra regions. 968,2009,2,4,The effect of fire frequency on local cembra pine populations,It has been predicted that global climate change will lead to increasing drought in the Alps during the 21st century| as well as an increased. re risk|. res being currently rare in these mountains. Herein we describe. re frequency reconstruction using high-resolution analyses of macroscopic sedimentary charcoal| pollen| and plant macrofossils. Sediments were sampled from a subalpine pond within the dry western French Alps. Results show that the early-Holocene expansion of Pinus cembra (7200 calibrated years BP) occurred in Acer/Alnus incana/Betula woodlands| which were affected by. res with moderate mean. re-free intervals (MFFI 173 +/- 61 yr [mean +/- SE]). Superposed Epoch Analyses show that the abundance of P. cembra macroremains decreased significantly after burning| although they never disappeared entirely. Statistics suggest that. res spread through cembra pine communities; they were not stand-replacing. res but mainly surface fires| probably killing nonreproductive pines. An increase in. re frequency occurred 6740 years ago| when four. res appear to have occurred within 140 years. These. res may have been associated with a regional drought and could have affected the composition of the subalpine forest by depleting the local P. cembra population in the short term. The predicted increase in drought in the future could| therefore| affect the cembra pine ecosystem in the Alps if. re frequency is reduced to intervals of less than 80 years. 9910,2009,2,4,The effect of the increase in urban temperature on the concentration of photochemical oxidants,An atmospheric dispersion model| where the inputs of meteorological field were calculated using a meteorological model| was used to reproduce the observed air pollution conditions for the typical fine day in summer period| especially the concentration of the photochemical oxidants. As well| the effects of an increase in the urban temperature and VOC emissions on the concentration of photochemical oxidants were also considered. The following conclusions were drawn. The observed air pollution levels were well modeled by the atmospheric dispersion model using in this study| although modeled NO levels were slightly lower than the observed levels. All analysis of the temperature data showed that a 1 degrees C increase in temperature leads to a maximal photochemical oxidant concentration of 5.3 ppb| which is an increase of 11%. Additionally| the effect on the photochemical oxidant concentration due to an increase in the vegetation-derived VOCs was more than double the effect due to an increase in the photochemical reactions. It was found that the temperature and photochemical oxidant concentration were linearly related up to a temperature increase of 3 degrees C. When the temperature increases up to 3 degrees C| the concentration of photochemical oxidants increases by 19 ppb. An analysis of the effect of vegetation-derived VOCs on photochemical oxidant concentrations showed that| the concentration of photochemical oxidants was 30 ppb higher in the afternoon by the effect of vegetation-derived VOCs| so even in metropolitan areas with relatively little vegetation| vegetation-derived VOCs have a strong impact on photochemical oxidant concentrations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9547,2009,2,4,The effects of global warming on soybean yields in a long-term fertilization experiment in Northeast China,Understanding how crop systems might respond to recent climate change is fundamental to the successful adaptation of efforts for sustainable agriculture. In the present paper| records over the period 1987-2004 from a long-term agroecosystem experiment carried out in Northeast China were used to explore the impacts of global warming on soybean (Glycine max (L) Merr.) yields under different controlled fertilization treatments. The results indicated that soybean yields were closely related to growing season temperatures. In most fertilization treatments| soybean yields showed a significant negative response to higher daily maximum temperature and greater diurnal temperature range (DTR)| whereas they showed a significant positive response to higher daily minimum temperature. Analysis of covariance showed that these responses of soybean yields to temperature variables did not differ across fertilization treatments. Overall| soybean yields have declined significantly due to the warming trends since 1987. This has been mainly attributed to the higher daily maximum temperature. The present report demonstrates that soybean production in Northeast China may face challenges due to global warming unless potential adaptation options are adopted. The true mechanisms behind these yield impacts need further investigation to address effective agricultural adaptations for soybean systems to adapt to global warming. 9819,2009,2,4,The effects of temperature and nutrients on the growth and dynamics of toxic and non-toxic strains of Microcystis during cyanobacteria blooms,In temperate latitudes| toxic cyanobacteria blooms often occur in eutrophied ecosystems during warm months. Many common bloom-forming cyanobacteria have toxic and non-toxic strains which co-occur and are visually indistinguishable but can be quantified molecularly. Toxic Microcystis cells possess a suite of microcystin synthesis genes (mcyA-mcyJ)| while non-toxic strains do not. For this study| we assessed the temporal dynamics of toxic and non-toxic strains of Microcystis by quantifying the microcystin synthetase gene (mcyD) and the small subunit ribosomal RNA gene| 16S (an indicator of total Microcystis)| from samples collected from four lakes across the Northeast US over a two-year period. Nutrient concentrations and water quality were measured and experiments were conducted which examined the effects of elevated levels of temperatures (+4 degrees C)| nitrogen| and phosphorus on the growth rates of toxic and non-toxic strains of Microcystis. During the study| toxic Microcystis cells comprised between 12% and 100% of the total Microcystis population in Lake Ronkonkoma| NY| and between 0.01% and 6% in three other systems. In all lakes| molecular quantification of toxic (mcyD-possessing) Microcystis was a better predictor of in situ microcystin levels than total cyanobacteria| total Microcystis| chlorophyll a| or other factors| being significantly correlated with the toxin in every lake studied. Experimentally enhanced temperatures yielded significantly increased growth rates of toxic Microcystis in 83% of experiments conducted| but did so for non-toxic Microcystis in only 33% of experiments| suggesting that elevated temperatures yield more toxic Microcystis cells and/or cells with more mcyD copies per cell| with either scenario potentially yielding more toxic blooms. Furthermore| concurrent increases in temperature and P concentrations yielded the highest growth rates of toxic Microcystis cells in most experiments suggesting that future eutrophication and climatic warming may additively promote the growth of toxic| rather than non-toxic| populations of Microcystis| leading to blooms with higher microcystin content. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. 9321,2009,2,4,The Emerging and Forecasted Effect of Climate Change on Human Health,Global warming is an unequivocal phenomenon today. Climate change including global warming has various effects on human health. The direct effects include increase in cases of heat-stroke and in mortality rate among those who have cardiovascular and and/or respiratory diseases. The main indirect effects are on infectious diseases. Vector-borne and water-borne infectious diseases are two main categories of infectious diseases that are forecasted to be most affected. There will be an increase in the number of vector-borne infections via expansion of the arthropod-infested areas| and increase in feeding behavior of infected mosquitoes. There will be increase in the number of cases with water-borne diarrhea diseases. It should| however| be noted that the levels of the impacts of climate change on human health will differ among regions| depending on factors such as social infrastructures| foreign trade and trip| age distribution| etc. Thus| the effects on health should be elucidated for each of the regions of the world. The studies of the effect of climate change on human health have been progressed in recent years; however| current understanding of the effect of climate change on human health including infectious diseases is not sufficient. Further studies are needed to understand in detail the effect of climate change on human health. 986,2009,2,4,The extent and impacts of ungulate translocations: South Africa in a global context,Despite the apparent risks of the introduction of non-indigenous ungulates to biodiversity| relatively little is known globally about the pathways of introduction| propagule pressure and realized impacts of ungulate introductions. These issues were examined here by investigating ungulate introductions to South Africa within a global context. Across countries globally| introduced ungulate richness is not related to indigenous ungulate richness| and several countries are clear outliers. South Africa is second only to the USA in the number of ungulate species introduced to date. Zoos have traded more ungulate species and individuals to non-zoo recipients than to other zoos| highlighting the tensions that exist between in situ and ex situ conservation goals. Introductions to| and extralimital introductions within South Africa have increased through time| with propagule pressure being highest in areas with high human population density. The long distances ungulates have been translocated raise concerns for genetic homogenization. Translocations of indigenous ungulate species extralimitally have significantly altered range sizes| typically to a greater extent than is expected from range shifts associated with global climate change. Although ungulate introductions and translocations are likely to have impacts on biodiversity| evidence for such impacts in South Africa| and elsewhere| is limited. Whilst arguments may be made for a precautionary approach to ungulate introductions| an evidence-based one is much more likely to deliver efficient and convincing conservation decision-making. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10366,2009,2,4,The first catenicellid (Bryozoa| Ascophora) from Mediterranean shallow waters: a hidden resident or a new immigrant?,Catenicella paradoxa sp. nov. is described from Mediterranean shallow bottoms. Colonies are small| rooted| erect and articulated| each segment either sterile unizooidal or bizooidal| or fertile bizooidal. Basal parts consist of an "articulated basal complex"| sometimes related to thick encrusting tubes| invariably followed by morphologically ordinary zooids belonging to each type of segment. The hypotheses of small separate colonies or subcolonies from a network of encrusting tubes are discussed| but relationships with the substratum remain unclear. The species represents the first known Mediterranean catenicellid| a family taxon with a warm| mostly Australasian present-day distribution. Nevertheless| catenicellids and Catenicella species have a long history in the European area from the Middle Eocene to the Early Pleistocene| with at least four different species. In this context| the meaning of C. paradoxa sp. nov. is discussed| bearing in mind problems of species spreading in relation to global warming and human activities. 9732,2009,2,4,The function of surface fires in the dynamics and structure of a formerly grazed old subalpine forest,1. Changes in the frequency and intensity of disturbances are expected to occur during the coming decades as a consequence of climatic changes. Mountain forests are sensitive to climate variability| disturbances and changes in human activities; this is particularly true for subalpine forests located close to the limits of tree-growth. Here we test the role of surface fires on the structure and the dynamics of a subalpine forest compared to a control stand not affected by fire events for at least two centuries. 2. The fire events are deduced from fire scars| the age-structure from tree-ring counting| regeneration from sapling and seedling counts| necromass from the volume of woody debris| and the understorey structure from shrub and herb cover| height and biomass. Land-use history is assessed from livestock and human inventories. 3. Four surface fires occurred during the last 200 years in the burned stand. Tree density is greater in the burned stand| and| even 50 years after the last fire| burning could still be having a positive effect on regeneration density. Land-use history| mainly grazing by cattle and sheep| explains the modern forest structure through its promotion of Larix decidua. The understorey composition is the same within the two stands| suggesting a rapid recovery of dwarf shrubs (Rhododendron ferrugineum and Vaccinium myrtillus) after the latest fire| which coincided with the final change in land-use. The exception is V. vitis-idaea cover| which is higher in the control stand. The removal of livestock in the 1940s indirectly triggered a decline in L. decidua regeneration| which was formerly promoted by grazing and trampling. Conversely| Pinus cembra seedlings have begun to establish during the last 70 years. 4. Synthesis. Expansion of forests dominated by P. cembra is expected during the 21st century| unless current global warming leads to a significant and lethal increase in fire frequency| that is| a reduction of fire-return intervals| which would reduce the number of sexually mature trees. The re-introduction of grazing could maintain the mixed subalpine forests| whereas surface fires would alter the woody debris load| promoting greater regeneration of L. decidua and P. cembra. 9343,2009,2,3,The Future of Tropical Species on a Warmer Planet,Modern global temperature and land cover and projected future temperatures suggest that tropical forest species will be particularly sensitive to global warming. Given a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario| fully 75% of the tropical forests present in 2000 will experience mean annual temperatures in 2100 that are greater than the highest mean annual temperature that supports closed-canopy forest today. Temperature-sensitive species might extend their ranges to cool refuges| defined here as areas where temperatures projected for 2100 match 1960s temperatures in the modern range. Distances to such cool refuges are greatest for equatorial species and are particularly large for key tropical forest areas including the Amazon and Congo River Basins| West Africa| and the upper elevations of many tropical mountains. In sum| tropical species are likely to be particularly sensitive to global warming because they are adapted to limited geographic and seasonal variation in temperature| already lived at or near the highest temperatures on Earth before global warming began| and are often isolated from cool refuges. To illustrate these three points| we examined the distributions and habitat associations of all extant mammal species. The distance to the nearest cool refuge exceeded 1000 km for more than 20% of the tropical and less than 4% of the extratropical species with small ranges. The biological impact of global warming is likely to be as severe in the tropics as at temperate and boreal latitudes. 868,2009,5,3,The Gamburtsev mountains and the origin and early evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet,Ice-sheet development in Antarctica was a result of significant and rapid global climate change about 34 million years ago(1). Ice-sheet and climate modelling suggest reductions in atmospheric carbon dioxide ( less than three times the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million by volume) that| in conjunction with the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current| led to cooling and glaciation paced by changes in Earth's orbit(2). Based on the present subglacial topography| numerical models point to ice-sheet genesis on mountain massifs of Antarctica| including the Gamburtsev mountains at Dome A| the centre of the present ice sheet(2|3). Our lack of knowledge of the present-day topography of the Gamburtsev mountains(4) means| however| that the nature of early glaciation and subsequent development of a continental-sized ice sheet are uncertain. Here we present radar information about the base of the ice at Dome A| revealing classic Alpine topography with pre-existing river valleys overdeepened by valley glaciers formed when the mean summer surface temperature was around 3 degrees C. This landscape is likely to have developed during the initial phases of Antarctic glaciation. According to Antarctic climate history (estimated from offshore sediment records) the Gamburtsev mountains are probably older than 34 million years and were the main centre for ice-sheet growth. Moreover| the landscape has most probably been preserved beneath the present ice sheet for around 14 million years. 9840,2009,2,4,The genetic status of the violet copper Lycaena helle - a relict of the cold past in times of global warming,Rising temperatures and agricultural changes (intensification and succession on fallow land) during the last few decades have caused a strong decline of moist and cool sites on nutrient-poor grasslands and species depending on these habitats. We tested the effects of habitat deterioration on a local and regional scale in such a species| the highly endangered butterfly Lycaena helle| which was more widely distributed over central Europe during the postglacial period| but has recently become restricted to some remnants. We analysed five polymorphic microsatellite loci in 220 individuals sampled at ten different localities. The study sites in Germany| Luxembourg and Belgium are geographically split into three mountain regions: the Ardennes| the Eifel and the Westerwald; the latter is separated from the other two by the river Rhine. A comparatively high genetic diversity was detected in all local populations and genetic differentiation was found among the Ardennes| the Eifel and the Westerwald (F(CT): 0.084). The genetic differentiation among all populations (F(ST): 0.137) underlines natural and anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. While ongoing gene flow seems to exist among the Eifel populations indicating the only intact metapopulation| a high genetic differentiation in the Ardennes and the Westerwald indicates a disruption of population connectivity. Our genetic data obtained on different spatial scales show the genetic consequence of long-term isolation and should trigger necessary conservation measures at the metapopulation level. 9447,2009,2,3,The Global Hydrological Cycle and Atmospheric Shortwave Absorption in Climate Models under CO(2) Forcing,The spread among the predictions by climate models for the strengthening of the global hydrological cycle [i.e.| the global mean surface latent heat flux (LH)| or| equivalently| precipitation] at a given level of CO(2)-induced global warming is of the same magnitude as the intermodel mean. By comparing several climate models from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) database under idealized CO(2) forcings| it is shown that differences in the increase in global atmospheric shortwave heating (SW(abs)) induced by clear-sky absorption| presumably by water vapor| partly explains this spread. The increases in SW(abs) and LH present similar spreads across models but are anti-correlated| so the sum SW(abs) + LH increases more robustly than either alone. This is consistent with a recently proposed theory (Takahashi) that predicts that this sum (or| equivalently| the net longwave divergence minus the surface sensible heat flux) is constrained by energy conservation and robust longwave physics. The intermodel scatter in SW(abs) changes is explained neither by differences in the radiative transfer models nor in intermodel differences in global water vapor content change| but perhaps by more subtle aspects of the changes in the water vapor distribution. Nevertheless| the fact that the radiative transfer models generally underestimate the increase in SW(abs) relative to the corresponding line-by-line calculation for a given change in water vapor content suggests that the climate models might be overestimating the rate of increase in the global hydrological cycle with global warming. 9346,2009,2,4,The Great 2006 Heat Wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an Increasing Trend,Most of the great California-Nevada heat waves can be classified into primarily daytime or nighttime events depending on whether atmospheric conditions are dry or humid. A rash of nighttime-accentuated events in the last decade was punctuated by an unusually intense case in July 2006| which was the largest heat wave on record (1948-2006). Generally| there is a positive trend in heat wave activity over the entire region that is expressed most strongly and clearly in nighttime rather than daytime temperature extremes. This trend in nighttime heat wave activity has intensified markedly since the 1980s and especially since 2000. The two most recent nighttime heat waves were also strongly expressed in extreme daytime temperatures. Circulations associated with great regional heat waves advect hot air into the region. This air can be dry or moist| depending on whether a moisture source is available| causing heat waves to be expressed preferentially during day or night. A remote moisture source centered within a marine region west of Baja California has been increasing in prominence because of gradual sea surface warming and a related increase in atmospheric humidity. Adding to the very strong synoptic dynamics during the 2006 heat wave were a prolonged stream of moisture from this southwestern source and| despite the heightened humidity| an environment in which afternoon convection was suppressed| keeping cloudiness low and daytime temperatures high. The relative contributions of these factors and possible relations to global warming are discussed. 9994,2009,2,4,The guard cell as a single-cell model towards understanding drought tolerance and abscisic acid action,Stomatal guard cells are functionally specialized epidermal cells usually arranged in pairs surrounding a pore. Changes in ion fluxes| and more specifically osmolytes| within the guard cells drive opening/closing of the pore| allowing gas exchange while limiting water loss through evapo-transpiration. Adjustments of the pore aperture to optimize these conflicting needs are thus centrally important for land plants to survive| especially with the rise in CO(2) associated with global warming and increasing water scarcity this century. The basic biophysical events in modulating membrane transport have been gradually delineated over two decades. Genetics and molecular approaches in recent years have complemented and extended these earlier studies to identify major regulatory nodes. In Arabidopsis| the reference for guard cell genetics| stomatal opening driven by K(+) entry is mainly through KAT1 and KAT2| two voltage-gated K(+) inward-rectifying channels that are activated on hyperpolarization of the plasma membrane principally by the OST2 H(+)-ATPase (proton pump coupled to ATP hydrolysis). By contrast| stomatal closing is caused by K(+) efflux mainly through GORK| the outward-rectifying channel activated by membrane depolarization. The depolarization is most likely initiated by SLAC1| an anion channel distantly related to the dicarboxylate/malic acid transport protein found in fungi and bacteria. Beyond this established framework| there is also burgeoning evidence for the involvement of additional transporters| such as homologues to the multi-drug resistance proteins (or ABC transporters) as intimated by several pharmacological and reverse genetics studies. General inhibitors of protein kinases and protein phosphatases have been shown to profoundly affect guard cell membrane transport properties. Indeed| the first regulatory enzymes underpinning these transport processes revealed genetically were several protein phosphatases of the 2C class and the OST1 kinase| a member of the SnRK2 family. Taken together| these results are providing the first glimpses of an emerging signalling complex critical for modulating the stomatal aperture in response to environmental stimuli. 9764,2009,4,3,The Hadley and Walker Circulation Changes in Global Warming Conditions Described by Idealized Atmospheric Simulations,Sea surface temperature (SST) changes constitute a major indicator and driver of climate changes induced by greenhouse gas increases. The objective of the present study is to investigate the role played by the detailed structure of the SST change on the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the distribution of precipitation. For that purpose| simulations from the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model| version 4 (IPSL-CM4) are used where the carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration is doubled. The response of IPSL-CM4 is characterized by the same robust mechanisms affecting the other coupled models in global warming simulations| that is| an increase of the hydrological cycle accompanied by a global weakening of the large-scale circulation. First| purely atmospheric simulations are performed to mimic the results of the coupled model. Then| specific simulations are set up to further study the underlying atmospheric mechanisms. These simulations use different prescribed SST anomalies| which correspond to a linear decomposition of the IPSL-CM4 SST changes in global| longitudinal| and latitudinal components. The simulation using a globally uniform increase of the SST is able to reproduce the modifications in the intensity of the hydrological cycle or in the mean upward mass flux| which also characterize the double CO2 simulation with the coupled model. But it is necessary ( and largely sufficient) to also take into account the zonal-mean meridional structure of the SST changes to represent correctly the changes in the Hadley circulation strength or the zonal-mean precipitation changes simulated by the coupled model| even if these meridional changes by themselves do not change the mean thermodynamical state of the tropical atmosphere. The longitudinal SST anomalies of IPSL-CM4 also have an impact on the precipitation and large-scale tropical circulation and tend to introduce different changes over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The longitudinal SST changes are demonstrated to have a smaller but opposite effect from that of the meridional anomalies on the Hadley cell circulations. Results indicate that the uncertainties in the simulated meridional patterns of the SST warming may have major consequences on the assessment of the changes of the Hadley circulation and zonal-mean precipitation in future climate projections. 9814,2009,3,3,The Hokuto mega-solar project,Solar generation systems are one of the measures for reducing global warming. An installed capacity target of solar generation systems in our country will be set 4.82 GW in 2010| while the total installed capacity is still 1.92 GW in 2007. About 80% of the systems are mainly residential use and each is very small. Constructions of some large-scale solar generation systems will be expected and intensive development of related technologies are urgent. The New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) advertised for consignment research business "Verification of Grid Stabilization with Large-scale Photovoltaic (PV) Power Generation Systems" in 2006. The verification tests are carried out in two sites of Hokuto City| Yamanashi Prefecture and Wakkanai City. Hokkaido. The outlines and the developing targets and some of studying results of the Hokuto mega-solar project (HMSP) are introduced in this paper. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 937,2009,3,3,The hydromagnesite playas of Atlin| British Columbia| Canada: A biogeochemical model for CO(2) sequestration,Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions may be offset by sequestering carbon dioxide (CO(2)) through the carbonation of magnesium silicate minerals to form magnesium carbonate minerals. The hydromagnesite [Mg(5)(CO(3))(4)(OH)(2)center dot 4H(2)O] playas of Atlin| British Columbia| Canada provide a natural model to examine mineral carbonation on a watershed scale. At near surface conditions| CO(2) is biogeochemically sequestered by microorganisms that are involved in weathering of bedrock and precipitation of carbonate minerals. The purpose of this study was to characterize the weathering regime in a groundwater recharge zone and the depositional environments in the playas in the context of a biogeochemical model for CO(2) sequestration with emphasis on microbial processes that accelerate mineral carbonation. Regions with ultramafic bedrock| such as Atlin| represent the best potential sources of feedstocks for mineral carbonation. Elemental compositions of a soil profile show significant depletion of MgO and enrichment of SiO(2) in comparison to underlying ultramafic parent material. Polished serpentinite cubes were placed in the organic horizon of a coniferous forest soil in a groundwater recharge zone for three years. Upon retrieval| the cube surfaces| as seen using scanning electron microscopy| had been colonized by bacteria that were associated with surface pitting. Degradation of organic matter in the soil produced chelating agents and acids that contributed to the chemical weathering of the serpentinite and would be expected to have a similar effect on the magnesium-rich bedrock at Atlin. Stable carbon isotopes of groundwater from a well| situated near a wetland in the southeastern playa| indicate that similar to 12% of the dissolved inorganic carbon has a modern origin from Soil CO(2). The mineralogy and isotope geochemistry of the hydromagnesite playas suggest that there are three distinct depositional environments: (1) the wetland| characterized by biologically-aided precipitation of carbonate minerals from waters concentrated by evaporation| (2) isolated wetland sections that lead to the formation of consolidated aragonite sediments| and (3) the emerged grassland environment where evaporation produces mounds of hydromagnesite. Examination of sediments within the southeastern playa-wetland suggests that cyanobacteria| sulphate reducing bacteria. and diatoms aid in producing favourable geochemical conditions for precipitation of carbonate minerals. The Atlin site| as a biogeochemical model| has implications for creating carbon sinks that utilize passive microbial| geochemical and physical processes that aid in mineral carbonation of magnesium silicates. These processes could be exploited for the purposes of CO(2) sequestration by creating conditions similar to those of the Atlin site in environments| artificial or natural| where the precipitation of magnesium carbonates would be suitable. Given the vast quantities of Mg-rich bedrock that exist throughout the world| this study has significant implications for reducing atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and combating global climate change. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9634,2009,2,3,The impact of climate change on cherry trees and other species in Japan,Studies from throughout the world have provided evidence that climate change is already affecting the ecology and persistence of species. Japan contributes valuable insights into understanding these changes through long-term records of the timing of cherry blossoms and other phenomena of ecological and cultural interest. The wide latitudinal spread of Japan also provides an opportunity to examine species over a broad range of environmental conditions. In this review| we examine phenological studies that have taken place in Japan and summarize their significance to climate change and conservation research. In Kyoto| records of the timing of celebrations of cherry blossom festivals going back to the 9th century reconstruct the past climate and demonstrate the local increase in temperature associated with global warming and urbanization. This record is probably the longest annual record of phenology from anyplace in the world and shows that cherries are currently flowering earlier than they have at any time during the previous 1200 years. Detailed mapping of cherry tree flowering times in and around Osaka and other cities in Japan show that urbanization causes plants to flower earlier within the city environs than in nearby parks and outlying suburban areas. Flowering records from a large cherry arboretum at Mt. Takao| on the outskirts of Tokyo| show that both among and within species| early flowering is associated with greater responsiveness to temperature variation. Lastly| records of phenology for a wide range of plants and animals recorded at over 100 weather stations throughout Japan show that species vary greatly in their phenological responses to climate change| and highlight ecological relationships that need to be investigated in the field. Together| these studies provide important insights into how species are responding to climate change in Japan. Further research| particularly targeted field observations and experiments| is needed to build on these findings and to improve our understanding of how climate change is altering biological communities and how it will continue to affect them in the future. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9916,2009,2,4,The impact of climate change on China's agriculture,This article examines how expected changes in climate are likely to affect agriculture in China. The effects of temperature and precipitation on net crop revenues are analyzed using cross-sectional data consisting of both rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8|405 households across 28 provinces| the results suggest that global warming is likely to be harmful to rainfed farms but beneficial to irrigated farms. The net impacts will be only mildly harmful at first| but the damages will grow over time. The impacts also vary by region. Farms in the Southeast will only be mildly affected but farms in the Northeast and Northwest will bear the largest damages. However| the study does not capture the indirect effects on farms of possible changes in water flow| which may be important in China. 9367,2009,3,2,The impact of cogeneration power and desalting plants (CPDP) on the environment in Kuwait,Fossil fuels (petroleum oil| natural gas) are the only type of fuel used for electric power generation to desalt seawater in Kuwait| Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC)| and all Arab Countries. The main constituents of fossil fuel are carbon (C) and hydrogen (H(2)) besides small portions of impurities such as sulphur (S)| nitrogen (N(2))| oxygen (O(2))| water moisture and particulate matters (ashes). When the fossil fuel is combusted (i.e. reacted with the oxygen in the air to generate heat)| the produced gases include mainly carbon dioxide (CO(2)). water vapour| carbon monoxide (CO)| sulphur dioxide (SO(2)) and nitrogen oxide (NO). The CO| SO(2) and NO gases pollute the air and are harmful to human health and the environment. CO(2) is the main component of the greenhouse gases (GHG) which cause global warming. The emission of CO(2)| CO and NO gases from power plants to the environment creates great international concern. The basics of the environmental issues related to fossil fuel combustion and its released gases are outlined in this paper. The emitted gases due to fuel combustion to produce electric power and distilled water in Kuwait and some Arab and other countries are calculated. The mitigation of GHG is also discussed. 9371,2009,2,4,The Impact of Global Warming on Mount Everest,Moore| G.W.K. and John L. Sempl. The impact of global warming on Mount Everest. High Alt. Med. & Biol. 10:383-385| 2009.-Global warming impacts a wide range of human activities and ecosystems. One unanticipated consequence of the warming is an increase in barometric pressure throughout the troposphere. Mount Everest's extreme height and resulting low barometric pressure places humans near its summit in an extreme state of hypoxia. Here we quantify the degree with which this warming is increasing the barometric pressure near Everest's summit and argue that it is of such a magnitude as to make the mountain| over time| easier to climb. 10286,2009,3,3,The impact of municipal solid waste treatment methods on greenhouse gas emissions in Lahore| Pakistan,The contribution of existing municipal solid waste management to emission of greenhouse gases and file alternative scenarios to reduce emissions were analyzed for Data Ganj Bukhsh Town (DGBT) in Lahore. Pakistan using file life cycle assessment methodology. DGBT has a population of 1|624.169 people living ill 232|024 dwellings. Total waste generated is 500|000 tons per)|car with in average per capita rate of 0.84 kg per day. Alternative scenarios were developed and evaluated according to the environmental| economic. and social atmosphere of file study area. Solid waste management options considered include the collection and transportation of waste. collection of recyclables with single and mixed material bank container systems (SMBCS| MMBCS). material recovery facilities (MRF). composting| biogasification and landfilling. A life cycle inventory (LCI) of the six scenarios along with file baseline scenario was completed; this helped to quantify the CO(2) equivalents| emitted and avoided| for energy consumption. production. fuel consumption and methane (CH(4)) emissions. LCI results showed that file contribution of the baseline scenario to the global warming potential as CO(2) equivalents Was a maximum of 838|116 toils. The sixth scenario had a maximum reduction of GHG emissions in terms of CO(2) equivalents of -33|773 tons| but the most workable scenario for file current situation ill file study area is scenario 5. It saves 25% ill CO(2) equivalents compared to the baseline scenario. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9988,2009,2,3,The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis,Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1 m in this century| and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 3-5 m SLR. In this paper| we assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available| spatially disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land| population| agriculture| urban extent| wetlands| and GDP)| with the inundation zones projected for 1-5 m SLR. Our results reveal that tens of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century; and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the country level results are extremely skewed| with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries. 9531,2009,3,3,The Impact of Treaty Nonparticipation on the Costs of Slowing Global Warming,One of the important features of public “bads” like global warming is that countries face widely disparate incentives to participate in measures to mitigate the impacts.1 In the specific case of global warming| these differences in incentives reflect differences in income| political structure| environmental attitudes| country size| geography| and perceptions of the eventual damage. For example| Russia may believe that it will benefit from at least limited warming| while India may believe it will suffer significant harm.2 The structures of the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol assign very different responsibilities to high-income and low-income countries. Indeed| the Framework Convention requires only high-income countries to participate| while the Kyoto Protocol excludes major developing countries in principle and the United States in practice.3 A realistic analysis of policy toward global warming| or of any policy that involves coordination among multiple nations| must allow for differing national or sectoral rates of participation in international agreements. It is critical that analysts and policymakers understand the potential costs of allowing incomplete participation. Are these costs large or small? This is the question to which the present study is addressed.
9500,2009,2,4,The importance of oceanographic fronts to marine birds and mammals of the southern oceans,During the last 30 years| at-sea studies of seabirds and marine mammals in the oceans south of the Subtropical Front have described an association with major frontal areas. More recently| the advancement in microtechnology has allowed the tracking of individuals and investigations into how these marine predators actually use the frontal zones. In this review| we examine 1) the relative importance to apex predators of the different frontal zones in terms of spatial distribution and carbon flux; 2) the processes that determine their preferential use; and 3) how the mesoscale dynamics of frontal structures drive at-sea foraging strategies of these predators. We review published results from southern waters and place them in a broader context with respect to what has been learned about the importance of fronts in oceans farther north. Some fronts constitute important boundaries for seabird communities in southern waters. At a mesoscale the maximum values of seabird diversity and abundance correspond to the location of the main fronts. At-sea surveys show a strong curvilinear correlation between seabird abundance and sea surface temperatures. High mean species richness and diversity for whales and seabirds are consistently associated with the southern water mass boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current| the Subtropical Front and the Subantarctic Front: in the case of the Polar Front mean seabird densities are more variable. At small-scales| variation in seabird occurrence has been directly related to the processes at fronts in a limited number of cases. A significant positive relation was found between some plankton feeding species and frontal temperature gradient-phytoplankton variables. Telemetric studies have revealed that several apex predators (penguins| albatrosses| seals) perform long| directed foraging trips either to the Subtropical front or Polar Front| depending on locality. Seabirds with low flight costs| such as albatrosses| are able to reach fronts at long distances from colonies| showing variable foraging strategies as a function of the distances involved. Diving birds such as King penguins| that travel at a higher cost and lower speed. rely on the predictable spatial distribution of mesopelagic fish found close to the Polar Front. They may use the currents associated with eddies as oceanographic cues in the active search for frontal zones. Once in these areas they dive preferentially in and below the depth of the thermocline where catches per unit effort are high. Elephant seals concentrate foraging activity principally inside or at the boundary of cyclonic eddies. These mesoscale features appear to offer exceptional productivity favourable for foraging by various diving top predators. The connection between biophysical parameters at fronts and predators is likely to be made through biological enhancement. Top predators appear to forage at locations where prey are advected by physical processes and others where prey are produced locally. Long-term research on at-sea distributions and demographic parameters of top predators are essential to assess the consequences of potential shift in front distributions in relation to global warming. Such environmental changes would add to the impact of fish extraction by the industrial fisheries on the southern food webs. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9513,2009,3,3,The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation,Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25| which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour| it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO(2)-induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane| which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric| then the impact of the CO(2)-induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources. 9525,2009,3,3,The influence of distance from landfill and population density on degree of wood residue recycling in Australia,Governments use numerous policy instruments to encourage both "upstream" and "downstream" sorting of residues into different recycling streams. wood waste in particular takes up a large amount of landfill space| and its anaerobic decomposition contributes to global warming through the emission of carbon dioxide and methane. In Australia the wood residue stream| such as used pallets from the commercial and industrial sector| is of particular concern to various states and territories. Diverted wood residue can provide an important resource for use in bioenergy or biofuel production. This study attempted to identify whether there is a difference between wood separating and non-separating waste facilities. This study also attempted to determine whether there is a relationship between the amount of general (total) waste collected and variables indicating general waste generation in surrounding areas| including distance to nearest population centre| distance to nearest capital city and population "catchment" of the waste facility location. It was found that a high percentage of landfills accept wood residue (80%). The results suggest that the availability of recycling is not dependent upon the relative size of the landfill and that economies of scale are not a driving factor behind wood residue recycling opportunity| but that other factors may drive or contribute to the availability of wood residue recycling. Finally| there was no clear relationship between the amounts of general waste passing through the facilities and other variables such as distance to nearest population centres| nearest capital city and population within a given radius. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9580,2009,2,4,The influence of freeze-thaw cycles of active soil layer on surface runoff in a permafrost watershed,As a result of global warming| the discharges from rivers in permafrost regions have varied significantly. However| its mechanism remains unclear. One of possible factors is active soil freeze-thaw cycle| which may influence surface runoff in the variation of permafrost water cycle processes. In this study| a typical permafrost watershed in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau was selected| its hydrological processes were monitored from 2004 to 2007| and the effects of the freezing and thawing depth of the soil active layer on runoff processes were assessed. The runoff modulus| runoff coefficient| direct runoff ratio| recession gradient and their seasonal variations were estimated and analyzed. The active soil dynamics and water budget were analyzed to prove the features of the surface runoff and the influences of active soil freeze-thaw processes. The primary factors influencing surface runoff processes during different seasons were analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and statistical regression methods. The results showed that the high runoff coefficient and low direct runoff ratio were the main characteristics during the spring flood period (May-June) and during the autumn recession period (September). The runoff modulus and its year-to-year variability were the greatest in the summer flood period. The direct runoff ratio decreased from 0.43 in May to 0.29 in September| with the exception of the highest ratio| which occurred during the summer recession period (July). The active soil thawing in the upper layer of depth of 60 cm had contributed to increase in discharge| but the increase in thawing depth deeper than 60 cm led to a decrease in surface runoff and slowness in the recession process. Precipitation played a small role in the spring flood runoff and the autumn runoff. The soil active layer freeze-thaw variation| which affected seasonal soil water dynamic and water budget and reformed seasonal runoff characteristics| along with vegetation cover changes| is considered the potential major factor in control of the hydrological processes in the permafrost region. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9670,2009,4,2,The influence of low-frequency variability and long-term trends in North Atlantic sea surface temperature on Irish waters,Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series collected in Irish waters between 1850 and 2007 exhibit a warming trend averaging 0.3 degrees C. The strongest warming has occurred since 1994| with the warmest years in the record being 2005| 2006| and 2007. The warming trend is superimposed on significant interannual to multidecadal-scale variability| linked to basin-scale oscillations of the ocean-atmosphere system. The dominant modes of low-frequency variability in North Atlantic SST records| investigated using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis| correspond to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)| the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP)| and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index| respectively| accounting for 23| 16| and 9% of the total variance in the dataset. Interannual variability in Irish SST records is dominated by the AMO| which| currently in its warm phase| explains approximately half of the current warm anomaly in the record. The EAP and the NAO influence variability in Irish SST time-series on a smaller scale| with the EAP also contributing to the current warm anomaly. After resolving the prevalent oscillatory modes of variability in the SST record| the underlying warming trend compares well with the global greenhouse effect warming trend. The anthropogenic contribution to the current warm anomaly in Irish SSTs was estimated at 0.41 degrees C for 2006| and this is predicted to increase annually. 996,2009,3,3,THE INFLUENCE OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ON SOIL WATER VAPOUR EXCHANGE RATE AND CO(2) EMISSION UNDER DIFFERENT TILLAGE SYSTEMS,Tillage can significantly influence soil water regime and gas emission affecting global climate change. The study was aimed to determine the influence of meteorological nditions and tillage on soil moisture content and temperature changes at the 0-10 cm soil depth in two fields with different soil texture during the spring barely vegetation period and to evaluate the changes of soil water vapour exchange rate and CO(2) emission. Investigations were carried out on an Endocalcari-Epihypogleyic Cambisol (CMg-p-w-can) at the Lithuanian Institute of Agriculture in 2008 in two different field trials which have been under management of different tillage systems for 10 successive years. On clay loam even the drizzle (0.8-1.2 mm) that occurred 1-3 days before measurements significantly increased WVF. On sandy clay loam| WVF response to small amount of rain water was weak. Higher amount of rain (9.5-13.5 mm) essentially increased WVF on both texture soil types. Under dry climate conditions direct drilling could serve as a moisture conserving measure at the 0-10 cm soil depth. But NT application oil different textured soils acts in a different way In conserving soil water| vapour exchange rate and CO(2) emission. On clay loam soil under NT application the interaction of thermal and moisture conditions (higher moisture content and lower temperature than under conventional - CT and reduced - RT tillage application) resulted in an increase in CO(2) emission by 60% as compared to that in CT and RT. On sandy clay loam| NT application might be a measure to reduce CO(2) emission because it exhibits a lower vapour exchange rate. 10063,2009,2,4,The influence of tropical Indian Ocean warming on the Southern Hemispheric stratospheric polar vortex,During the past decades| concurrent with global warming| most of global oceans| particularly the tropical Indian Ocean| have become warmer. Meanwhile| the Southern Hemispheric stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) exhibits a deepening trend. Although previous modeling studies reveal that radiative cooling effect of ozone depletion plays a dominant role in causing the deepening of SPV| the simulated ozone-depletion-induced SPV deepening is stronger than the observed. This suggests that there must be other factors canceling a fraction of the influence of the ozone depletion. Whether the tropical Indian Ocean warming (IOW) is such a factor is unclear. This issue is addressed by conducting ensemble atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. And one idealized IOW with the amplitude as the observed is prescribed to force four AGCMs. The results show that the IOW tends to warm the southern polar stratosphere| and thus weakens SPV in austral spring to summer. Hence| it offsets a fraction of the effect of the ozone depletion. This implies that global warming will favor ozone recovery| since a warmer southern polar stratosphere is un-beneficial for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs)| which is a key factor to ozone depletion chemical reactions. 10163,2009,2,4,The influence of water stress on biomass and N accumulation| N partitioning between above and below ground parts and on N rhizodeposition during reproductive growth of pea (Pisum sativum L.),In the next few years| grain legumes should be used as a mean of N acquisition in cropping systems due to the depletion of non-renewable sources of energy. However| this requires improvements in the accuracy with which biological N(2) fixation| N balances and the N benefit for following crops are estimated. Moreover| grain legume crops are largely influenced by water stress while the world area exposed to drought periods may increase in the coming years due to global warming. This work aims to quantify biomass and N accumulation| N partitioning between above and below ground parts and N rhizodeposition by a pea (Pisum sativum L.) when influenced by water stress. In a controlled environment| pea plants were exposed to a severe drought or not stressed| either at flowering or during pod filling. N rhizodeposition was measured using the split root method and plants were harvested at the end of flowering (59 days after sowing| DAS 59)| at the end of the drought period applied during pod filling (DAS 74) and at maturity (DAS 101). Water stress strongly affected pea dry weight and N accumulation. In both stressed treatments| nodule biomass and N content were reduced by about 65% in the absence of stress. Regardless of the treatment| total below ground plant N (root N + N rhizodeposition; BGN) and N rhizodeposition were correlated with total plant N content and the proportion of BGN to total plant N was similar among treatments at each sampling date. At DAS 59 and 74| the N contained in rhizodeposits represented around 30% of the total BGN and increased to around 60% at maturity though BGN decreased from around 20 to 13% of the total plant N between DAS 74 and maturity. The results suggest that water stress has no specific effect on N partitioning between above and below ground parts. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 873,2009,2,4,The life history of Serratella ignita (Poda| 1761) (Insecta: Ephemeroptera) in a temporary and permanent Mediterranean stream,In mid latitudes| such as the Mediterranean region| one consequence of global climate change will be a progressive shift of permanent to temporary water courses| altering the life histories of present species or making them disappear. Presented here is a study on the life history of a mayfly species| Serratella ignita| in two Mediterranean streams| one permanent and one temporary. The research focuses on life history parameters such as life cycle| nymphal growth pattern| feeding type| biomass and secondary production. The life cycle was univoltine| showing a fast seasonal nymphal growth during four months in the permanent stream and five months in the temporary stream| with a long egg stage with diapause. The cumulated day-degrees during nymphal growth were similar between streams. Both populations behaved mainly as gatherer-collectors| but the population from the temporary stream also played an important role as a scraper. Animal matter was also consumed by nymphs from both populations. Gut content analysis showed that both S. ignita populations were opportunist/generalists| where changes in diet were correlated with size. Biomass and secondary production were notably higher in the permanent stream| but they were also high in the temporary stream. These data show that S. ignita had a high fitness in both streams. Our results support the idea that species such as this one may cope with future global climate change by maintaining| or even increasing| their populations at the expense of more stenoecic species. 886,2009,4,4,THE NOPP O-SCOPE AND MOSEAN PROJECTS ADVANCED SENSING FOR OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEMS,The National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) consecutively sponsored the Ocean-Systems for Chemical| Optical| and Physical Experiments (O-SCOPE) and Multi-disciplinary Ocean Sensors for Environmental Analyses and Networks (MOSEAN) projects from 1998 through 2008. The O-SCOPE and MOSEAN projects focused on developing and testing new sensors and systems for autonomous| concurrent measurements of biological| chemical| optical| and physical variables from a diverse suite of stationary and mobile ocean platforms. Design considerations encompassed extended open-ocean and coastal deployments| instrument durability| biofouling mitigation| data accuracy and precision| near-real-time data telemetry| and economy-the latter being critical for widespread sensor and system utilization. The complementary O-SCOPE and MOSEAN projects increased ocean sensing and data telemetry capabilities for addressing many societally relevant problems such as global climate change| ocean carbon cycling and sequestration| acidification| eutrophication| anoxia| and ecosystem dynamics| including harmful algal blooms. NOPP support enabled O-SCOPE and MOSEAN to accelerate progress in achieving multiscale| multidisciplinary| sustained observations of the ocean environment. Importantly| both programs produced value-added scientific results| which demonstrated the utility of these new technologies. The NOPP framework fostered strong collaborations among academic| commercial| and government entities| and facilitated technology transfers to the general research community and to long-term observational and observatory programs. 9894,2009,4,4,THE NORTHERN EURASIA EARTH SCIENCE PARTNERSHIP An Example of Science Applied to Societal Needs,Northern Eurasia| the largest land-mass in the northern extratropics| accounts for similar to 20% of the global land area. However| little is known about how the biogeochemical cycles| energy and water cycles| and human activities specific to this carbon-rich| cold region interact with global climate. A major concern is that changes in the distribution of land-based life| as well as its interactions with the environment| may lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of accelerated regional and global warming. With this as its motivation| the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was formed in 2004 to better understand and quantify feedbacks between northern Eurasian and global climates. The first group of NEESPI projects has mostly focused on assembling regional databases| organizing improved environmental monitoring of the region| and studying individual environmental processes. That was a starting point to addressing emerging challenges in the region related to rapidly and simultaneously changing climate| environmental| and societal systems. More recently| the NEESPI research focus has been moving toward integrative studies| including the development of modeling capabilities to project the future state of climate| environment| and societies in the NEESPI domain. This effort will require a high level of integration of observation programs| process studies| and modeling across disciplines. 1027,2009,2,4,The Oasis as a Megacity: Urumqi's Fast Urbanisation in a Semiarid Environment,The City of Urumqi is situated in northwestern China in a semiarid environment with an extremely continental climate. It is located in a narrow green grassland corridor between the Gurbantunggut Desert and semi-desert lowlands in the north and the glaciated Tianshan Mountains in the south. The annual precipitation is about 200 to 300 mm with most of the water necessary for human activities provided by the mountainous surroundings. Urumqi represents one of the most dynamic city developments of the last 50 years| shifting from a traditional Central Asian city of less than 100|000 inhabitants in 1950 to the most important economic growth pole of northwestern China with approximately 4 million people in the greater Urumqi region. In the 1950s| the central government began to transform solely the extensively used peripheral areas of the northwestern basins into areas with more intensive utilisation| thereby facilitating first agricultural and later also industrial expansion. Not surprisingly| this successful economic development resulted in a rise in water demand in this ecologically sensitive dryland environment. Rivers and smaller streams supply the greater Urumqi region with mountain and glacial water throughout the year. On the foothills| the surface runoff seeps into and infiltrates the alluvial fan| in which surface and groundwater are in an intensive exchange. Therefore| it is difficult to differentiate between surface and groundwater bodies in and outside of the urban area and to determine and specify the consequences of human activities on its quality and quantity. Despite the topographical advantage of the city| Urumqi faces several water-related challenges: 1) high evaporation rates due to storage and transportation in open canal systems as well as flood irrigation| 2) low water quality due to intensive usage and general salinisation| 3) very high water consumption rates| and 4) overexploitation of groundwater resources. Additionally| global climate change affects the sensitive water balance in the region. The quantity of precipitation tends to increase and to lead to a more variable and concentrated runoff regime. Additionally| rising temperatures cause the glaciers and snowfields in the mountains to melt and reduce the storage capacity| which originally provided melt water during the vegetation and planting period. Therefore| adaptation to the changes includes increasing the efficiency of water usage| thereby decreasing the overall consumption| securing the water supply by enhancement of the storage and transportation system| and improving the water quality by means of better water treatment and management. However| these investments and changes have to be made without compromising the overall economic development| which is probably the greatest challenge. Future research will have to analyse the exact consequences of climate change and anthropogenic activities in order to develop feasible measurements and interventions as well as to monitor the results of technical implementation. 9511,2009,2,4,The Occurrence of Unfavorable Thermal Conditions on Human Health in Central Europe and Potential Climate Change Impacts: An Example from Cracow| Poland,Progressive global warming exerts strong influence on the lives and on the health of urban residents| many of who are weather sensitive people (meteoropaths). In the temperate zone| air temperature changes largely determine the seasonal oscillation of morbidity and mortality frequency. The present study analyzes the influence of air temperature on living conditions in central European urban areas| particularly Cracow (Poland)| and examines this influence against the background of climate change. During the warmer months| there is a noticeable increase in the unfavorable occurrence of especially strong thermal stimuli (e. g.| hot days) which can lead to overheating of the human organism. On the other hand| the increasing frequency of mild winters contributes to the appearance of weak and moderate thermal stimuli| which in the case of the former| is a negative phenomenon. Weak thermal stimuli are liable to make the human body oversensitive and| thus lose the ability to adapt if stronger thermal stimuli were to occur. Residents of large urban areas should be prepared for the possibility of dynamic weather changes and should take thermal variability into consideration with regards to spatial urban planning and socioeconomic activities. 9572,2009,4,2,The Ocean's Role in Continental Climate Variability and Change,A characteristic feature of global warming is the land-sea contrast| with stronger warming over land than over oceans. Recent studies find that this land-sea contrast also exists in equilibrium global change scenarios| and it is caused by differences in the availability of surface moisture over land and oceans. In this study it is illustrated that this land-sea contrast exists also on interannual time scales and that the ocean-land interaction is strongly asymmetric. The land surface temperature is more sensitive to the oceans than the oceans are to the land surface temperature| which is related to the processes causing the land-sea contrast in global warming scenarios. It suggests that the ocean's natural variability and change is leading to variability and change with enhanced magnitudes over the continents| causing much of the longer-time-scale (decadal) global-scale continental climate variability. Model simulations illustrate that continental warming due to anthropogenic forcing (e. g.| the warming at the end of the last century or future climate change scenarios) is mostly (80%-90%) indirectly forced by the contemporaneous ocean warming| not directly by local radiative forcing. 9364,2009,3,3,The overall effects of road works on global warming gas emissions,Road characteristics influence the amount of pollution generated by traffic. They govern the rolling resistance| which includes: the viscoelastic behaviour of the pavement structure| surface texture| and profile unevenness. Road works are performed on a periodic basis to maintain these characteristics at proper levels of service (e.g. safety| comfort. and noise). While such works produce additional pollution (due to congestion around worksites or extra fuel consumption along the detour route)| they still result in less pollution over the long term. This article assesses the balance between an increase in gas emissions during road works and the reduction in emissions from traffic once the works are completed. It is demonstrated that when road works are introduced to correct longitudinal profiles| rather than texture| the emissions benefit is substantial. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 9641,2009,2,3,The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change,Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle| which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here| we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics| precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics| they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate| in the upward velocity| and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics| the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extratropics| agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change. 10368,2009,4,5,The possible role of dynamic pressure from the interplanetary magnetic field on global warming,Quantitative analyses suggest that the increase in global warming by about 1 degrees C over the last century is related to the increase in geomagnetic activity. Maintained small increases in dynamic pressure in the order of a nanoPascal from the solar wind due to the expansion of the solar magnetic corona may be sufficient to produce the energy that has resulted in the increase of surface temperatures on the Earth and Mars. A 1 nPa increase in dynamic pressure is equivalent to the increase of about 16 nT in aa (average antipodal index) values observed over the last 100 years. The results support the hypothesis of El-Borie and Al-Thoyaib that geomagnetic activity can partially predict global mean temperatures.
9309,2009,2,4,The Potential Effects of Global Warming on Changes in Canine Leishmaniasis in a Focus outside the Classical Area of the Disease in Southern France,In 1994| an ecoepidemiologic study was carried out in the mid-Ariege valley (French Pyrenees) where autochthonous cases of canine leishmaniasis had been previously reported. Serologic samples were collected from 336 dogs in two groups of villages. The seroprevalences were 11.67% in the valley villages and only 1.43% in the foothill villages. Five lymph node biopsies were taken from serologically positive dogs| and resultant isolates were identified as Leishmania infantum zymodeme MON-1. Phlebotomine sandflies were collected in five locations by CDC light traps. Both of the known French vectors| Phlebotomus ariasi and P. perniciosus| were identified. Bioclimatic and floristic studies showed that this area is an enclave of the supra-Mediterranean climatic zone| containing a typically xerothermophilic Mediterranean flora. The Pyrenees Mountains are usually considered to be outside of the endemic range of leishmaniasis in southern France| and so our demonstration of a microfocus of canine leishmaniasis in the northern foothills is noteworthy. A second serologic survey carried out in 2007 (216 dogs) showed an inversion of the seropositive rates between the two groups of villages compared with those of 1994: only 2.72% in the valley villages and 11.32% in the foothills villages. The decrease of seroprevalence in the first area (valley villages) can be related to a considerable use of deltamethrin collars during the transmission season. The increase of seroprevalence of the foothill villages could be related to climatic conditions| since there was an increase of about 1 C in the mean annual temperature. 10052,2009,2,4,The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer "cold-blooded" animals against climate warming,Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodiversity has stimulated extensive discussion| but methods to translate broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here| we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate| topography| and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most "cold-blooded'' terrestrial animals| the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (although this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas| where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on thermoregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals' capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase maintenance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time| putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy- and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism-and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts. 10354,2009,3,2,The potential of the ocean for the management of global warming,The ocean represents a potential opportunity to store carbon dioxide from fossil fuel away from the atmosphere. Three carbon sequestration strategies are reviewed and the technical| legal and ethical issues that would follow from their widespread adoption are examined. Each of these strategies could play a significant role in mitigating the carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere. The legal basis for the ocean sinks of carbon dioxide is unclear| but it is certain that climate modification by ocean sinks will lead to some winners and some losers. It is concluded that staged intervention to manage climate change is morally defensible. The opportunity to produce economical protein accessible to the poor while managing climate change justifies further investigation of the ocean fertilisation strategy. 755,2009,3,3,The Progressive Increase of Food Waste in America and Its Environmental Impact,Food waste contributes to excess consumption of freshwater and fossil fuels which| along with methane and CO(2) emissions from decomposing food| impacts global climate change. Here| we calculate the energy content of nationwide food waste from the difference between the US food supply and the food consumed by the population. The latter was estimated using a validated mathematical model of metabolism relating body weight to the amount of food eaten. We found that US per capita food waste has progressively increased by similar to 50% since 1974 reaching more than 1400 kcal per person per day or 150 trillion kcal per year. Food waste now accounts for more than one quarter of the total freshwater consumption and similar to 300 million barrels of oil per year. 9806,2009,2,2,The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions,The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response(1). These approaches| however| do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Climate-carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO(2) emitted does not depend on the background CO(2) concentration(2); (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions(3-5); and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO(2) is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries(3|6-8). Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon-climate response (CCR)| defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions| is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints| we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0-2.1 degrees C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles)| consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate-carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO(2) emissions and aerosol forcing| however| means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR| when evaluated from climate-carbon models under idealized conditions| represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models| which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity| carbon sinks and climate-carbon feedbacks into a single quantity| the CCR allows CO(2)-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions. 10357,2009,3,4,The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions using various thermal systems in a landfill site,In this paper| the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from an uncontrolled landfill site filled with Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) are compared with those from controlled sites in which collected Landfill Gases (LFG) are utilised by various technologies. These technologies include flaring| conventional electricity generation technologies such as Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) and Gas Turbine (GT) and an emerging technology| Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC). The results show that SOFC is the best option for reducing the GHG emissions among the studied technologies. In the case when SOFC is used| GHG emissions from the controlled site are reduced by 63% compared to the uncontrolled site. This case has a specific lifetime GHG emission of 2.38 tonnes CO(2 center dot)eq/MWh when only electricity is produced and 1.12 tonnes CO(2 center dot)eq/MWh for a cogeneration application. 9861,2009,2,3,THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING AND THE VARIATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC,The relationship between global warming and the variation in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency is analyzed using the data of the Tropical Cyclone Year Book by the China Meteorological Administration and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data from 1949 to 2007. The observational results indicate that the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region (10 degrees N - 20 degrees N 100 degrees E| - 140 degrees E.) increases by 0.6 degrees C against the background of global warming| while the frequency of tropical cyclone geneses in this region decreases significantly. Generally| the rise of SSTs is favorable for the genesis of tropical cyclones| but it is now shown to be contrary to the normal effect. Most of the tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP) are generated in the ITCZ. This is quite different from the case in the Atlantic basin in which the tropical cyclones are mostly generated from the easterly wave. Our research results demonstrate that the ITCZ has a weakening trend in strength| and it has moved Much more equatorward in the past 40 years; both are disadvantageous to the formation of tropical cyclones. Furthermore| our study also found that the ridge of the subtropical high tends to shift slightly equatorward| which is another adverse mechanism for the formation of tropical cyclones. 9904,2009,2,3,The role of light for fish-zooplankton-phytoplankton interactions during winter in shallow lakes - a climate change perspective,1. Variations in the light regime can affect the availability and quality of food for zooplankton grazers as well as their exposure to fish predation. In northern lakes light is particularly low in winter and| with increasing warming| the northern limit of some present-day plankton communities may move further north and the plankton will thus receive less winter light. 2. We followed the changes in the biomass and community structure of zooplankton and phytoplankton in a clear and a turbid shallow lake during winter (November-March) in enclosures both with and without fish and with four different light treatments (100%| 55%| 7% and < 1% of incoming light). 3. In both lakes total zooplankton biomass and chlorophyll-a were influenced by light availability and the presence of fish. Presence of fish irrespective of the light level led to low crustacean biomass| high rotifer biomass and changes in the life history of copepods. The strength of the fish effect on zooplankton biomass diminished with declining light and the effect of light was strongest in the presence of fish. 4. When fish were present| reduced light led to a shift from rotifers to calanoid copepods in the clear lake and from rotifers to cyclopoid copepods in the turbid lake. Light affected the phytoplankton biomass and| to a lesser extent| the phytoplankton community composition and size. However| the fish effect on phytoplankton was overall weak. 5. Our results from typical Danish shallow eutrophic lakes suggest that major changes in winter light conditions are needed in order to have a significant effect on the plankton community. The change in light occurring when such plankton communities move northwards in response to global warming will mostly be of modest importance for this lake type| at least for the rest of this century in an IPCC A2 scenario| while stronger effects may be observed in deep lakes. 9697,2009,4,2,The Role of Long-Term Trends in Seasonal Predictions: Implication of Global Warming in the NCEP CFS,This paper analyzes long-term surface air temperature trends in a 25-yr (1982-2006) dataset of retrospective seasonal climate predictions made by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS)| a model that has its atmospheric greenhouse gases fixed at the 1988 concentration level. Although the CFS seasonal forecasts tend to follow the observed interannual variability very closely| there exists a noticeable time-dependent discrepancy between the CFS forecasts and observations| with a warm model bias before 1988 and a cold bias afterward except for a short-lived warm bias during 1992-94. The trend from warm to cold biases is likely caused by not including the observed increase in the anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the CFS| whereas the warm bias in 1992-94 reflects the absence of the anomalous aerosols released by the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption. Skill analysis of the CFS seasonal climate predictions with and without the warming trend suggests that the 1997-98 El Nino event contributes significantly to the record-breaking global warmth in 1998 whereas the record-breaking warm decade since 2000 is mainly due to the effects of the increased greenhouse gases. Implications for operational seasonal prediction will be discussed. 9776,2009,3,4,The role of seasonality in lettuce consumption: a case study of environmental and social aspects,Considerable debate surrounds the assessment of the environmental impacts and the ethical justification for providing a year-round supply of fresh produce to consumers in the developed countries of northern Europe. Society is seeking environmentally sustainable supply chains which maintain the variety of fresh food on offer throughout the year. This paper compares the environmental impacts of different supply chains providing lettuce all year round to the UK and considers consumers' meanings of-and attitudes to-available options. Lettuce has been selected as a case study as its consumption has grown steadily during the last two decades and the supply chains through cold months are protected cropping in the UK and field cropping in Spain; during warm months| lettuce is sourced from field cropping in the UK. Data were collected from farms supplying each of these supply chains| and life cycle assessment methodology was used to analyse a range of impacts associated with producing (from plant propagation to harvesting and post-harvest cooling) and delivering 1 kg of lettuce to a UK Regional Distribution Centre (RDC). The downstream stages (i.e. retailing| consumption and waste management) are the same regardless of the origin of the product and were omitted from the comparison. The impacts considered included potential to induce global warming and acidification as well as three inventory indicators (primary energy use| land use and water use). Qualitative data were collected in order to assess the consumer considerations of purchasing lettuce also during winter. Importation of Spanish field-grown lettuce into the UK during winter produced fewer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than lettuce produced in UK-protected systems at that time (0.4-0.5 vs. 1.5-3.7 kg CO(2)-eq/kg lettuce in RDC). Refrigerated transport to the UK was an important element of the global warming potential associated with Spanish lettuce (42.5% of emissions)| whilst energy for heating dominated the results in UK-protected cultivation (84.3% of emissions). Results for acidification were more variable and no overall trends are apparent. Results from qualitative social analysis revealed complex and multidimensional meanings of freshness and suggested that the most striking seasonal variation in vegetable/salad eating was a tendency to consume more salads in the summer and more cooked vegetables in the winter| thus suggesting that in-home consumption alone cannot explain the rise in winter imports of lettuce to the UK. UK field-grown lettuce had the lowest overall environmental impact; however| those lettuces are only available in summer| so consumers therefore need to either accept the environmental impacts associated with eating lettuce in the winter or to switch consumption to another food product in the winter. When lettuces were field-grown in Spain and then transported by road to the UK| the overall impacts were similar to the UK field lettuces. The variation within farms of the same country employing different cultivation regimes and practices was bigger than between farms of different countries. This paper has explored the environmental consequences of consuming lettuce year-round in the UK. Whilst recognising the small sample size| the comparative analysis of the different supply chains does suggest that seasonality can be an important variable when defining the best choice of lettuce from an environmental point of view. Further studies considering more production sites and product types are required to obtain conclusions whose general validity is clear and for different types of fresh produce. A clear distinction to be made in such studies is whether crops are produced in open fields or under protection. New characterisation methods are needed for environmental impacts derived from the use of key agricultural resources such as land and water. Social studies to investigate consumer preferences and the possibility of moving to more seasonal diets should be an integral part of these studies using samples composed of both urban and rural consumers and using a mixed methodology with both quantitative and qualitative components. 846,2009,2,4,The Roles and Interactions of Symbiont| Host and Environment in Defining Coral Fitness,Background: Reef-building corals live in symbiosis with a diverse range of dinoflagellate algae ( genus Symbiodinium) that differentially influence the fitness of the coral holobiont. The comparative role of symbiont type in holobiont fitness in relation to host genotype or the environment| however| is largely unknown. We addressed this knowledge gap by manipulating host-symbiont combinations and comparing growth| survival and thermal tolerance among the resultant holobionts in different environments. Methodology/Principal Findings: Offspring of the coral| Acropora millepora| from two thermally contrasting locations| were experimentally infected with one of six Symbiodinium types| which spanned three phylogenetic clades (A| C and D)| and then outplanted to the two parental field locations (central and southern inshore Great Barrier Reef| Australia). Growth and survival of juvenile corals were monitored for 31-35 weeks| after which their thermo-tolerance was experimentally assessed. Our results showed that: (1) Symbiodinium type was the most important predictor of holobiont fitness| as measured by growth| survival| and thermo-tolerance; (2) growth and survival| but not heat-tolerance| were also affected by local environmental conditions; and (3) host population had little to no effect on holobiont fitness. Furthermore| coral-algal associations were established with symbiont types belonging to clades A| C and D| but three out of four symbiont types belonging to clade C failed to establish a symbiosis. Associations with clade A had the lowest fitness and were unstable in the field. Lastly| Symbiodinium types C1 and D were found to be relatively thermo-tolerant| with type D conferring the highest tolerance in A. millepora. Conclusions/Significance: These results highlight the complex interactions that occur between the coral host| the algal symbiont| and the environment to shape the fitness of the coral holobiont. An improved understanding of the factors affecting coral holobiont fitness will assist in predicting the responses of corals to global climate change. 9646,2009,2,4,The Roles of Wind Shear and Thermal Stratification in Past and Projected Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity,Atlantic tropical cyclone activity has trended upward in recent decades. The increase coincides with favorable changes in local sea surface temperature and other environmental indices| principally associated with vertical shear and the thermodynamic profile. The relative importance of these environmental factors has not been firmly established. A recent study using a high-resolution dynamical downscaling model has captured both the trend and interannual variations in Atlantic storm frequency with considerable fidelity. In the present work| this downscaling framework is used to assess the importance of the large-scale thermodynamic environment relative to other factors influencing Atlantic tropical storms. Separate assessments are done for the recent multidecadal trend (1980-2006) and a model-projected global warming environment for the late 21st century. For the multidecadal trend| changes in the seasonal-mean thermodynamic environment (sea surface temperature and atmospheric temperature profile at fixed relative humidity) account for more than half of the observed increase in tropical cyclone frequency| with other seasonal-mean changes (including vertical shear) having a somewhat smaller combined effect. In contrast| the model's projected reduction in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the warm climate scenario appears to be driven mostly by increased seasonal-mean vertical shear in the western Atlantic and Caribbean rather than by changes in the SST and thermodynamic profile. 778,2009,2,4,The sequestration of terrestrial organic carbon in Arctic Ocean sediments: A comparison of methods and implications for regional carbon budgets,A variety of approaches have previously been developed to estimate the fraction of terrestrial or marine organic carbon present in aquatic sediments. The task of quantifying each component is especially important for the Arctic due to the regions' sensitivity to global climate change and the potential for enhanced terrestrial organic carbon inputs with continued Arctic warming to alter carbon sequestration. Yet it is unclear how each approach compares in de. ning organic carbon sources in sediments as well as their impact on regional or pan-Arctic carbon budgets. Here| we investigated multiple methods: (1) two end-member mixing models utilizing bulk stable carbon isotopes; (2) the relationship between long-chain n-alkanes and organic carbon (ALKOC); (3) principal components analysis (PCA) combined with scaling of a large suite of lipid biomarkers; and (4) ratios of branched and isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids (the BIT index) to calculate the fraction of terrestrial organic matter components preserved in Arctic marine sediments. Estimated terrestrial organic carbon content among approaches showed considerable variation for identical sediment samples. For a majority of the samples| the BIT index resulted in the lowest estimates for terrestrial organic carbon| corroborating recent suggestions that this proxy may represent a distinct fraction of terrestrial organic matter; i.e.| peat or soil organic matter| as opposed to markers such as n-alkanes or long-chain fatty acids which measure higher plant wax inputs. Because of the patchy inputs of n-alkanes to this region from coastal erosion in the western Arctic| the ALKOC approach was not as effective as when applied to river-dominated margins found in the eastern Arctic. The difficulties in constraining a marine delta(13)C end-member limit the applicability of stable isotope mixing models in polar regions. Estimates of terrestrial organic carbon using the lipid-based PCA method and the bulk delta(13)C mixing model approach varied drastically at each site| suggesting that organic matter fractions such as amino acids or carbohydrates may affect bulk organic matter composition in a manner that is not captured in the lipid-based analysis. Overall| terrestrial organic matter inputs to the Chukchi and western Beaufort Seas using the average of the methods at each site ranged from 11% to 44%| indicating that land-derived organic matter plays a substantial role in carbon dynamics in the western Arctic Ocean. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 953,2009,5,4,The Southern Westerlies during the last glacial maximum in PMIP2 simulations,The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds are an important component of the climate system at hemispheric and global scales. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position through an ice-age cycle have been proposed as important drivers of global climate change due to their influence on deep-ocean circulation and changes in atmospheric CO(2). The position| intensity| and associated climatology of the southern westerlies during the last glacial maximum (LGM)| however| is still poorly understood from empirical and modelling standpoints. Here we analyse the behaviour of the southern westerlies during the LGM using four coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations carried out by the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PMIP2). We analysed the atmospheric circulation by direct inspection of the winds and by using a cyclone tracking software to indicate storm tracks. The models suggest that changes were most significant during winter and over the Pacific ocean. For this season and region| three out four models indicate decreased wind intensities at the near surface as well as in the upper troposphere. Although the LGM atmosphere is colder and the equator to pole surface temperature gradient generally increases| the tropospheric temperature gradients actually decrease| explaining the weaker circulation. We evaluated the atmospheric influence on the Southern Ocean by examining the effect of wind stress on the Ekman pumping. Again| three of the models indicate decreased upwelling in a latitudinal band over the Southern Ocean. All models indicate a drier LGM than at present with a clear decrease in precipitation south of 40A degrees S over the oceans. We identify important differences in precipitation anomalies over the land masses at regional scale| including a drier climate over New Zealand and wetter over NW Patagonia. 9627,2009,2,4,The survival strategy of the alpine endemic Primula glaucescens is fundamentally unchanged throughout its climate envelope despite superficial phenotypic variability,The survival of alpine species in changing climates depends on dispersal or adaptation. However| it is unclear whether trait variability along elevation/climatic gradients is adaptive or represents stress towards lower/warmer elevations| particularly for the endangered endemics for which protected status and plant longevity preclude experimental study. We chose one such species| known for its phenotypic variability (Primula glaucescens| endemic to the southern Alps)| and quantified key functional traits in situ throughout its range| correlating these with elevation as a proxy for climate. Larger leaves were evident towards lower elevations| but tissue nitrogen dilution and limited regenerative fitness were symptomatic of stress. Specific leaf area| a correlate of relative growth rate| was consistently low: the entire species exhibits conservative leaf economy and inherently slow growth. This seemingly variable species exhibits superficial variability around a fundamentally conservative| cold-adapted survival strategy| and thus phenotypic variability is unlikely to facilitate the persistence of alpine endemics during rapid climate warming. 10271,2009,3,3,The Sustainability of Biofuels Depends on International Trade,Beginning with Brazil and the US| biofuels are being produced in a growing number of countries at large scale. Jobs are created in rural areas| air quality improves in urban areas| global warming is mitigated| oil imports decrease| and foreign exchange is saved. Nevertheless| the expansion of biofuels in large scale raises concerns about the environmental impact at the production sites| the competition with food supplies| the threats to existing eco-systems such as the rain forests| etc.| and maintaining fair social standards. Not every country in the world should be producing biofuels. Only a discrete number of countries should engage in biofuels production| mainly in the developing world. But| all countries can benefit from consuming biofuels. All energy commodities today are traded internationally| without restrictions| except biofuels. Interested countries must discuss and agree on a Global BioPact| to promote unimpeded international trade of biofuels within the bounds of sustainable production| transport| and use. Such trade will improve the economic| social| and environmental sustainability of biofuels. 10030,2009,3,3,The syngas production by partial oxidation using a homogeneous charge compression ignition engine,It is essential to develop the environment-friendly alternative energies urgently considering the limited fossil fuel and the global warming caused by environmental destruction. In this research| the new technology was studied to produce syngas from methane or simulated biogas with a HCCl reforming engine. The purpose is to provide the basics for the research on biogas treatment mainly comprising of methane and carbon dioxide| the cause of global warming. This experiment was conducted on the changes in syngas concentration according to the variations of oxygen/methane ratio| total flow rate| intake hearing temperature| CO(2) in mixture and oxygen enrichment with partial oxidation. Through the parametric screening studies. optimum conditions and their results in this study was taken as follows; The maximum content of syngas was: 27.4% at 0.3 of oxygen/methane ratio| 32.38% at 117.3 L/min of total flow rate| and 35.83% at 355 degrees C of intake heating temperature. 41.06% of syngas was produced at 50.33% of oxygen enrichment ratio. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10351,2009,3,4,The techno-economic and environmental aspects of a hybrid PV-diesel-battery power system for remote farm houses,In this study| the solar radiation data of Balikesir in Turkey are analysed to assess the techno-economic viability and environmental performance of a hybrid Photovoltaic (PV)-diesel-battery system to meet the load requirements of a typical remote farm house. Several aspects of the system are studied through the Cost of Energy (CoE)| the operational hours of diesel generator| unmet load| excess electricity generation| percentage of fuel savings| etc. The CoE for this kind of hybrid system is found to be 1.245 US$/kWh. Simulations are performed for three cases (diesel only| PV-diesel and PV-diesel-battery). It is found that a diesel-only system produces 63 900 kWh of electricity and 69.7 tonnes of CO(2)| 13.0 kg of PM| 1.53 tonnes of NO(x) emissions per year. Using PV-diesel and PV-diesel-battery systems helps reduce the emissions for CO(2) to 61.0 and 42.0 tonnes| for PM to 11.4 and 7.83 kg and for NO(x) to 1.34 and 0.92 tonnes| respectively. The diesel-only system is more economical if the fuel price remains below US$2/L. Otherwise| PV-diesel and PV-diesel-battery systems become more cost-effective. Also| the environmental impact improvement factor is found as 0.127 and 0.399 for CO(2)| 0.123 and 0.397 for PM and 0.124 and 0.398 for NO(x) for both PV-diesel and PV-diesel-battery systems| respectively. 9377,2009,3,3,The Technology of Waste| Biofuels and Global Warming in Viable Closed Loop| Sustainable Operations,This research set out to explore and develop a route relating the recycling of urban and industrial wastes to land to produce agricultural crops with energy crops in the rotation| using the green leaf to "harvest" sunlight and to examine the sequestration of carbon dioxide and release of oxygen in a sustainable closed loop. Further| to establish if the pollution| particularly of nitrogen and phosphates (often associated with cultivations and use of mineral fertilisers) could be reduced or eliminated| so as to be able to develop systems which could contribute to the reversal of global warming. Finally| to probe whether practical operators on the ground could understand the technology| use it| and express what they were doing in a way acceptable to a wider society. 10037,2009,5,4,The tectonic history of Drake Passage and its possible impacts on global climate,This study provides an integrated review of plate tectonic models of the evolution of the Antarctica-Patagonia connection compared to geological records collected on land in Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego| and offshore along the northern edge of the Scotia Sea. A temporal framework for the sedimentary and tectonic events of the North Scotia Ridge and Tierra del Fuego is constructed with additional data compiled from entire Patagonia and the Austral Basin. This review provides robust correlations of seaways and tectonic events along the Scotia and South America plates and indicates that the opening of the Drake Passage was not steady state since ca. 30 Ma. Rather the regions forming the present-day northern limit of this gateway experienced important paleogeographic changes| from deep marine basins to shallow ridges and emerged regions during the late Oligocene and early-middle Miocene time. Our compilation of geological data shows that emergence along the North Scotia Ridge and Tierra del Fuego was achieved at 23-22 Ma| and has been followed by elimination of the Patagoniano Sea in Patagonia| starting at 22-23 Ma and achieved at 20 Ma. This transition towards more continental sedimentation in southern South America is correlated with more shallow marine conditions in the Austral Basin. This succession of events had a strong influence on the general geometry of the Drake Passage| corresponding to a constriction of its northern limit| starting in the window 29-22 Ma and achieved at 21 Ma. This period of active deformation in southern South America also corresponds to a period of the global climate having two anomalies well known from the isotopic records: the Late Oligocene Warming. around 26 Ma and the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum which ended between 15 and 14 Ma. The possible effects of the post-Oligocene tectonic evolution of the Drake Passage region on general oceanic circulation are discussed. Causes for the synchronicity between tectonic events and these global warming events are examined. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9471,2009,2,4,The Thurwieser rock avalanche (Italian Alps): Description and dynamic analysis,A rock avalanche of about 3 . 10(6) m(3) detached from the South-East flank of the Punta Thurwieser ridge (Italian Central Alps) on the 18th of September| 2004. Due to the characteristics of the moving material (i.e. rock| debris| ice| snow) and the path of propagation (e.g. presence of a glacier)| the mass was able to rapidly cover long distances (about 3000 m). Among the possible causes of the event| attention is mainly focused on permafrost degradation and changes in glacier extension due to global warming. In the present work| the dynamics of the event and the role played by characteristics of the propagation path are numerically investigated with the RASH3D code| based on a continuum mechanics approach. Results obtained with two theological hypotheses (Frictional and Voellmy) are compared and discussed. In particular| it emerges that 1) the use of a Voellmy rheology with a reduced friction angle on the glacier is necessary to reproduce the dynamics of the Thurwieser event| and 2) a lack in knowledge of geometrical and geomechanical information may lead to wrong interpretations of the event and inaccurate calibration of numerical models. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9934,2009,4,3,The use of uncertainty analysis as a food waste estimation tool,Food waste going to landfill is a significant environmental issue with 33% of all food we buy simply being thrown away. Not only is this extremely wasteful but rotting food produces gases that are harmful to the environment and contributes to global warming. The UK government is committed to reducing the amount of household waste directly being disposed of at landfills by 10.1 million tonnes tonnes over 20 years from 2000 (Waste Composition Analysis: Guidance for Local Authorities| Defra| 2004). As part of this the Waste Reduction Action Programme was set up to fund and facilitate innovative solutions to reduce waste to landfill. Part of that process was to assess bids by solution providers with regards the effectiveness of the technologies that they were offering. This was found to be a non-trivial task| with multiple input parameters and large variations in data. Establishing which parameters have the greatest effect on food waste estimation was therefore essential in any decision-making process. However| the large number of unknowns| assumptions and parameters makes this understanding both difficult and time consuming. A branch of mathematics known as uncertainty analysis can be used to analyse these types of situations quickly and effectively and is easily adapted to understanding of food waste estimation. This paper outlines the techniques used to develop an internet-based decision-making tool and demonstrates the methodology used with simple case studies. 9681,2009,2,4,The valuation of contingent capital with catastrophe risks,The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007) indicates that unanticipated catastrophic events could increase with time because of global warming. Therefore| it seems inadequate to assume that arrival process of catastrophic events follows a pure Poisson process adopted by most previous studies (e.g. [Louberge| H.| Kellezi| E.| Gilli| M.| 1999. Using catastrophe-linked securities to diversify insurance risk: A financial analysis of ICAT bonds. J. Risk Insurance 22| 125-146; Lee| J.-P.| Yu| M.-T.| 2002. Pricing default-risky CAT bonds with moral hazard and basis risk. J. Risk Insurance 69| 25-44; Cox| H.| Fairchild| J.| Pedersen| H.| 2004. Valuation of structured risk management products. Insurance Math. Econom. 34|259-272; Jaimungal| S.| Wang| T.| 2006. Catastrophe options with stochastic interest rates and compound Poisson losses. Insurance Math. Econom.| 38|469-483]. In order to overcome this shortcoming| this paper proposes a doubly stochastic Poisson process to model the arrival process for catastrophic events. Furthermore| we generalize the assumption in the last reference mentioned above to define the general loss function presenting that different specific loss would have different impacts on the drop in stock price. Based on modeling the arrival rates for catastrophe risks| the pricing formulas of contingent capital are derived by the Merton measure. Results of empirical experiments of contingent capital prices as well as sensitivity analyses are presented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 952,2009,2,4,The vulnerability of renewable energy to climate change in Brazil,Energy supply in Brazil relies heavily on renewable energy source. The production of energy from renewable sources| however| greatly depends on climatic conditions| which may be impacted in the future due to global climate change (GCC). This paper analyzes the vulnerabilities of renewable energy production in Brazil for the cases of hydropower generation and liquid biofuels production| given a set of long-term climate projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios. The most important result found in this study is the increasing energy vulnerability of the poorest regions of Brazil to GCC. Both biofuels production (particularly biodiesel) and electricity generation (particularly hydropower) may negatively suffer from changes in the climate of those regions. Other renewable energy sources-such as wind power generation-may also be vulnerable| raising the need for further research. However| the results found are fundamentally dependent on the climate projections which| in turn| are still highly uncertain with respect to the future evolution of greenhouse gas emissions| greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and GCC. Therefore| in such long-term scenario analyses| the trends and directions derived are the ones to be emphasized rather than the precise results one arrives. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9841,2009,3,3,Theoretical analysis of a CO(2)-NH(3) cascade refrigeration system for cooling applications at low temperatures,As a result of environmental problems related to global warming and depletion of the ozone layer caused by the use of synthetic refrigerants (CFC's| HCFC's and HFC's) experienced over the last decades| the return to the use of natural substances for refrigeration purposes| appears to be the best long-term alternative. In this paper| a cascade refrigeration system with CO(2) and NH(3) as working fluids in the low and high temperature stages| respectively| has been analysed. Results of COP and exergetic efficiency versus operating and design parameters have been obtained. In addition| an optimization study based on the optimum CO(2) condensing temperature has been done. Results show that following both method's exergy analysis and energy optimization| an optimum value of condensing CO(2) temperature is obtained. The compressor isentropic efficiency influence on the optimum system COP has been demonstrated. A methodology to obtain relevant diagrams and correlations to serve as a guideline for design and optimization of this type of systems has been developed and it is presented in the paper. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9618,2009,3,4,Thermal behaviour of an earth-sheltered autonomous building - The Brighton Earthship,The benefits of reducing the thermal effect of global warming and structural damage by severe storms have renewed interest and drives to heavyweight constructions. One type of heavyweight construction using earth-sheltered construction known as an 'Earthship' has been developed and pioneered by US architect Michael Reynolds and recently introduced to the UK. The 'Earthship' takes on the concept of an 'independent vessel'| which operates on a self-sufficient basis and is constructed largely from recycled and reclaimed materials. Although there are up to 3000 globally| only two Earthships have been built in the UK - one in Brighton and one in Scotland. The publicity resulting from the planning approval granted in April 2007 for the construction of sixteen domestic Earthships at the seafront of Brighton have raised public awareness to this type of unconventional construction. A key feature of the Earthship design is the use of a thermal store| which acts as a seasonal heat buffer to absorb heat in the summer and to release heat in the winter| to regulate the room temperature. This paper reports on the initial findings of a long-term study on the thermal behaviour of the thermal store and its effect to the indoor environment. It introduces the design and construction principles of the Earthship and outlines the process and equipment used in the thermal monitoring of the building. Indicative results from the analyses of the data collected at the early stage are reported and discussed. Initial findings have demonstrated the effectiveness of the thermal charging and discharging of the earth-rammed thermal mass| which appeared to moderate the extreme external temperatures. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9813,2009,3,3,Thermal characteristics and regeneration analyses of adsorbents by differential scanning calorimetry and scanning electron microscope,Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are the main factors involved in pollution control and global warming in industrialized nations. Various treatment methods involving incineration| adsorption| etc.| were employed to reduce VOCs concentration. Various absorbents| such as activated carbon| zeolite| silica gel or alumina| and so on were broadly used to adsorb VOCs in various industrial applications. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) was handled to analyze the thermal characteristics of absorbents. Typically| a scanning electron microscope (SEM) has been used to evaluate the structure variation of absorbents under high temperature situations. In view of pollution control and loss prevention| versatility and analysis of recycled adsorbents are necessary and useful for various industrial applications. 10210,2009,2,4,Thermal Characteristics of the Embankment with Crushed Rock Side Slope to Mitigate Thaw Settlement Hazards of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway,Permafrost (perennially frozen ground) appears widely in the Golmud-Lhasa section of the Qinghai-Tibet railway and is characterized by high ground temperature (>= -1 degrees C) and massive ground ice. Under the scenarios of global warming and human activity| the permafrost under the railway will gradually thaw and the massive ground ice will slowly melt| resulting in some thaw settlement hazards| which mainly include longitudinal and lateral cracks| and slope failure. The crushed rock layer has a thermal semiconductor effect under the periodic fluctuation of natural air. It can be used to lower the temperature of the underlying permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet railway| and mitigate the thaw settlement hazards of the subgrade. In the present paper| the daily and annual changes in the thermal characteristics of the embankment with crushed rock side slope (ECRSS) were quantitatively simulated using the numerical method to study the cooling effect of the crushed rock layer and its mitigative ability. The results showed that the ECRSS absorbed some heat in the daytime in summer| but part of it was released at night| which accounted for approximately 20% of that absorbed. Within a year| it removed more heat from the railway subgrade in winter than that absorbed in summer. It can store approximately 20% of the "cold" energy in subgrade. Therefore| ECRSS is a better measure to mitigate thaw settlement hazards to the railway. 9505,2009,2,4,THERMAL STRUCTURE OF A MEGADIVERSE ANDEAN MOUNTAIN ECOSYSTEM IN SOUTHERN ECUADOR AND ITS REGIONALIZATION,The thermal structure of a megadiverse mountain ecosystem in southern Ecuador is examined on the basis of temperature measurements inside the natural mountain forest and at open-sites along an altitudinal gradient from 1600 to 3200 m. The main methodological aim of the current study is to develop in air temperature regionalization tool to provide spatial datasets on average monthly mean| minimum and maximum temperature by using observation data. The maps| based on data of the period 1999-2007| are needed by ecological projects working on various plots where no climate station data arc available. The temperature maps arc generated by combining a straight forward detrending technique with a Digital Elevation Model and a satellite-based land cover classification which also provides the relative forest cover per pixel. The topical aim of the study is to investigate the thermal structure Of both manifestations Of Our ecosystem (pastures and natural vegetation) with special considerations to the ecosystem temperature regulation service by converting natural forest into pasture. The results reveal a clear thermal differentiation over the year| partly triggered by the change of synoptic weather situation but also by land cover effects. Thermal amplitudes are particularly low during the main rainy season when cloudiness and air humidity are high| but markedly pronounced in the relative dry season when daily irradiance and Outgoing nocturnal radiation cause distinct differences between the land cover units. Particularly the lower pasture areas gained by slash and burn of the natural forest exhibit the most extreme thermal conditions while the atmosphere inside the mountain forest is slightly cooler clue to the regulating effects of the dense vegetation. Thus| clearing the forest clearly reduces the thermal regulation function (regulating ecosystem services) of the ecosystem which might become Problematic under future global warming. 9492,2009,4,4,Thermodynamic control on the climate of intense tropical cyclones,How thermodynamic factors control the climate of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated by examining the relationship between the seasonally averaged maximum potential intensity (MPI| used as a representative index of the thermodynamic forcing) over an ocean basin where TCs form and the seasonal frequency of occurrence of intense TCs. It is found that only in the Atlantic does the MPI have a statistically significant relationship with the number of intense TCs| explaining about 40 per cent of the variance. In other ocean basins| there is either no correlation or the correlation is not statistically significant. In other words| only in the Atlantic are thermodynamic factors responsible| but still only to a certain extent| for the climate variations of intense TCs. In other ocean basins| it appears that the dynamic factors are much more dominant. Such a conclusion has important implications in considering whether global warming may influence the future climate of intense TCs for the following reason. Although it has been generally accepted that the thermodynamic energy available in the atmosphere is likely to increase under global warming| the results from this study suggest that such an increase does not necessarily imply a concomitant increase in the number of intense TCs| because how the dynamic factors will vary are still not clear. Until we can demonstrate that the dynamic factors will also become more favourable for TC intensification| it remains uncertain whether the frequency of occurrence of intense TCs will increase under a global warming scenario. 10382,2009,2,4,Threat of Sea Level Rise: Costs and Benefits of Adaptation in European Union Coastal Countries.,The unavoidable physical consequences of increased sea-level due to global warming and the large concentration of socio-economic and natural assets at the coast raise much concern about possible economic damages. When discussing climate related threats with decision makers| cost-benefit analyses that support decisions are often demanded. The Dynamical Interactive Vulnerability Tool (DIVA) allows calculating the benefits of a normative coastal protection target versus a business as usual (BAU) scenario for the European Union (EU) coastal states. Results show that for most EU coastal countries long-term economic benefits are expected for a well-defined adaptation strategy during the second half of the 21(st) century. By 2 100| about 200 bio $US are expected to be avoided if all EU coastal countries target the 100 year coastal protection goal. The situation is not equal for all countries| for some like Netherlands and Irish Republic large benefits up to 5.5% of the 2007 GDP are expected| while for countries like Estonia and Cyprus the adaptation level chosen proved to be too costly when compared with the impact costs of a BAU scenario. 9912,2009,3,3,Three-Dimensional Modeling of HCFC-123 in the Atmosphere: Assessing Its Potential Environmental Impacts and Rationale for Continued Use,HCFC-123 (C(2)HCl(2)F(3)) is used in large refrigeration systems and as a fire suppression agent blend. Like other hydrochlorofluorocarbons| production and consumption of HCFC-123 is limited under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The purpose of this study is to update the understanding of the current and projected impacts of HCFC-123 on stratospheric ozone and on climate and to discuss the potential environmental effects from continued use of this chemical for specific applications. For the first time| the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) of a HCFC is determined using a three-dimensional model (MOZART-3) of atmospheric physics and chemistry. All previous studies have relied on results from two-dimensional models. The derived HCFC-123 ODP of 0.0098 is smaller than previous values. Analysis of the projected uses and emissions of HCFC-123| assuming reasonable levels of projected growth and use in centrifugal chiller and fire suppressant applications| suggests an extremely small impact on the environment due to its short atmospheric lifetime| low ODP| low Global Warming Potential (GWP)| and the small production and emission of its limited applications. The current contribution of HCFC-123 to stratospheric reactive chlorine is too small to be measurable. 9675,2009,2,4,Toxin composition of a Prorocentrum lima strain isolated from the Portuguese coast,Microalgae of the genus Dinophysis and Prorocentrum are known producers of okadaites| responsible for the human syndrome known as diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP). In temperate regions| only species from the genus Dinophysis are commonly held responsible for shellfish contamination. This is probably related to the different ecological strategies of the two genera| namely the planktonic nature of Dinophysis versus the benthic/epiphytic nature of toxic Prorocentrum species. In recent years| the threat of global warming has drawn attention to the study of benthic toxic microalgae in southern European waters. Here we present results on the toxin production and toxin profile of a Prorocentrum lima strain isolated from the Portuguese coast. This strain| IO66-01| presented a mean growth rate of 0.49 divisions d(-1)| not common in temperate strains| and only comparable with tropical strains. The parent toxins found were okadaic acid (OA) and dinophysistoxin-1 (DTX1). The major diol esters were D8- and D9- congeners of both OA and DT-X1. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10364,2009,3,3,Tradable rights to emit air pollution,The use of cap-and-trade to regulate air pollution promises to achieve environmental goals at lower cost than traditional prescriptive approaches. Cap-and-trade has been applied to various air pollutants including sulphur dioxide| nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds in the United States and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) in the European Union. This corresponds to what is likely to become the most expensive environmental undertaking in history - the effort to reduce the heating of the planet. However| the efficacy of a cap-and-trade policy for CO(2) depends in large part on the design of the program. In addition to the level of the cap| the most important decision facing policymakers will be the initial allocation of emissions allowances. The method used to allocate tradable emissions allowances will have significant influence on the distributional impact and efficiency of the program. 10161,2009,3,4,Transforming meadows into free surface water wetlands: Impact of increased nitrate and carbon loading on greenhouse gas production,In a laboratory study we investigated 1) the potential production of nitrous oxide (N(2)O)| methane (CH(4)) and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and 2) the effect of nitrate (NOT) and anaerobic N(2)O development on CH(4) production in sediment from a recently recreated free surface water wetland (FSWW) and in soil from an adjacent meadow. We designed an experiment where production of greenhouse gases was registered at the time of maximum net development of N(2)O. We made additions of biodegradable carbon (glucose) and/or NOT to sediment and soil slurries and incubated them at four temperatures (4|13| 20| 28 degrees C). Gas production from both substrates was positively Correlated with temperature. We also found that the sediment produced more N(2)O than the soil. N(2)O production in sediment was NO(3)(-) limited| whereas in soil carbon availability was lower and only combined additions of NOT and glucose supported increased N(2)O development. CH(4) production was generally low and did not differ between soil and sediment. Nor did glucose addition increase CH(4) rates. The results suggest that neither soil nor sediment environment did support development of methanogenic populations. There were no clear effects of NOT on CH(4) production. However| the highest records of CH(4) were found in incubations with low N(2)O production| which indicates that N(2)O might be toxic to methanogens. In summary| our study showed that transforming meadows into FSWWs implies a risk of increased N(2)O emissions. This does not seem to be valid for CH(4). However| since N(2)O is almost always produced wherever NOT is denitrified| increased N(2)O production in wetlands leads to reduced rates in downstream environments. Hence| we conclude that when balancing NO(3)(-) retention and global warming aspects| we find no reason to discourage future creation or restoration of wetlands. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 9479,2009,5,3,Transient dwarfism of soil fauna during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,Soil organisms| as recorded by trace fossils in paleosols of the Willwood Formation| Wyoming| show significant body-size reductions and increased abundances during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Paleobotanical| paleopedologic| and oxygen isotope studies indicate high temperatures during the PETM and sharp declines in precipitation compared with late Paleocene estimates. Insect and oligochaete burrows increase in abundance during the PETM| suggesting longer periods of soil development and improved drainage conditions. Crayfish burrows and molluscan body fossils| abundant below and above the PETM interval| are significantly less abundant during the PETM| likely because of drier floodplain conditions and lower water tables. Burrow diameters of the most abundant ichnofossils are 30-46% smaller within the PETM interval. As burrow size is a proxy for body size| significant reductions in burrow diameter suggest that their tracemakers were smaller bodied. Smaller body sizes may have resulted from higher subsurface temperatures| lower soil moisture conditions| or nutritionally deficient vegetation in the high-CO(2) atmosphere inferred for the PETM. Smaller soil fauna co-occur with dwarf mammal taxa during the PETM; thus| a common forcing mechanism may have selected for small size in both above-and below-ground terrestrial communities. We predict that soil fauna have already shown reductions in size over the last 150 years of increased atmospheric CO(2) and surface temperatures or that they will exhibit this pattern over the next century. We retrodict also that soil fauna across the Permian-Triassic and Triassic-Jurassic boundary events show significant size decreases because of similar forcing mechanisms driven by rapid global warming. 9621,2009,3,4,Transient environmental effects of light alloy substitutions in transport vehicles,Materials indices and exchange constants are combined with Field et al.'s fleet analysis [Field F| Kirchain R| Clark J. Life-cycle assessment and temporal distributions of emissions: developing a fleet-based analysis. J Indust Ecol 2000;4:71-91| doi:10.1162/108819800569816] to examine the time-dependent CO(2) emissions attached to the production of the Al and Mg alloys used to reduce the mass of transport vehicles. The model is used to breakdown the temporal pattern of upfront emissions of passenger cars according to the mass and CO(2)-footprint efficiency of typical automotive structural substitutions (castings| stiff panels and stiff beams)| accounting for the effect of recycling. The fleet's upfront emissions of Al and Mg castings with high content of secondary metal are offset by the increased fuel efficiency after 4 years of driving. Al beams and panels and electrolytic Mg panels require between 8 and 15 years| whereas for panels and beams of Pidgeon Mg no environmental benefits ever materialise. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10073,2009,3,4,Transition to renewable energy systems with hydrogen as an energy carrier,Unlike the present energy system based on fossil fuels| an energy system based on renewable energy sources with hydrogen and electricity as energy carriers would be sustainable. However| the renewable energy sources in general have less emergy than the fossil fuels| and their carriers have lower net emergy. Because of that they would not be able to support continuous economic growth| and would eventually result in some kind of a steady-state economy. An early transition to renewable energy sources may prove to be beneficial in the long term| i.e.| it may result in a steady state at a higher level than in the case of a transition that starts later. Once the economy starts declining it will not be able to afford transition to a more expensive energy system| and transition would only accelerate the decline. Similarly| if a transition is too fast it may weaken and drain economy too much and may result in a lower steady state. If a transition is too slow| global economy may be weakened by the problems related to utilization of fossil fuels (such as global warming and its consequences) before transition is completed and the result again would be a lower steady state. Therefore| there must be an optimal transition rate; however| its determination would require very complex models and constant monitoring and adjustment of parameters. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9688,2009,4,4,Transitional solar dynamics and global warming,Solar activity is studied using a cluster analysis of the time-fluctuations of the sunspot number. It is shown that in an Historic period the high activity components of the solar cycles exhibit strong clustering| whereas in a Modern period (last seven solar cycles: 1933-2007) they exhibit a white-noise (non-)clustering behavior. Using this observation| it is shown that in the Historic period| emergence of the sunspots in the solar photosphere was strongly dominated by turbulent photospheric convection. In the Modern period| this domination was broken by a new more active dynamics of the inner layers of the convection zone. Then| it is shown that the dramatic change of the sun dynamics at the transitional period (between the Historic and Modern periods| solar cycle 1933-1944) had a clear detectable impact on the Earth's climate. A scenario of a chain of transitions in the solar convective zone is suggested in order to explain the observations| and a forecast for global warming is suggested on the basis of this scenario. A relationship between the recent transitions and solar long-period chaotic dynamics has been found. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
902,2009,2,4,Tree die-off in response to global change-type drought: mortality insights from a decade of plant water potential measurements,Global climate change is projected to produce warmer| longer| and more frequent droughts| referred to here as "global change-type droughts"| which have the potential to trigger widespread tree die-off. However| drought-induced tree mortality cannot be predicted with confidence| because long-term field observations of plant water stress prior to| and culminating in| mortality are rare| precluding the development and testing of mechanisms. Here| we document plant water stress in two widely distributed| co-occurring species| pinon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma)| over more than a decade| leading up to regional-scale die-off of pinon pine trees in response to global change-related drought. Pinon leaf water potentials remained substantially below their zero carbon assimilation point for at least 10 months prior to dying| in contrast to those of juniper| which rarely dropped below their zero-assimilation point. These data suggest that pinon mortality was driven by protracted water stress| leading to carbon starvation and associated increases in susceptibility to other disturbances (eg bark beetles)| a finding that should help to improve predictions of mortality during drought. 9553,2009,2,4,Trend analysis of Indian summer monsoon rainfall at different spatial scales,The results obtained from a conventional trend analysis of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall over a larger region are contradicted when analysis is performed at a finer resolution because of spatial variability and heterogeneity in the rainfall pattern. The present study analyzes the trend of summer monsoon rainfall all over India at a finer spatial resolution (1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude) to identify the places that have a significant trend in terms of both rainfall amount and occurrence. The results obtained from this study are compared with those of a recent study by Goswami et al. (2006)| where trend analysis is performed over a larger region [Central India (CI); 10 degrees latitude x 12 degrees longitude; assumed to be homogeneous in that study]. The increasing trend of occurrence of heavy rainfall and decreasing trend of occurrence of moderate rainfall| as concluded from that study| are contradicted by the present results for some places in CI. The present analysis shows spatially varying mixed responses of global warming toward rainfall occurrence and amounts all over India. The perception of increase in daily rainfall amount and occurrence due to climate change is found to be not correct for some of the regions in India. The possible reason may be the spatial variability of local changes such as rapid urbanization| industrialization and deforestation. Copyright. (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 9647,2009,4,4,Trend evaluation in records with long-term memory: Application to global warming,Previous statistical detection methods indicate that| on a global scale| the observed warming cannot be attributed solely to natural fluctuations. Here we estimate the probability W(Delta) that an observed trend Delta occurs naturally| and determine the anthropogenic part A(Q)(Delta) of the temperature increase within a given confidence interval Q. To obtain these quantities| we do not use climate simulations| but assume as statistical null hypothesis that monthly temperature records are long-term correlated with a Hurst exponent alpha > 0.5 (including also nonstationary records with alpha values above 1). We show that for confidence intervals with Q above 80% analytical expressions for W(Delta) and A(Q)(Delta) can be derived| which request as input solely the Hurst exponent| as well as the temperature increase Delta obtained from the linear regression line and the standard deviation sigma(t) around it. We apply this approach to global and local temperature data and discuss the different results. Citation: Lennartz| S.| and A. Bunde (2009)| Trend evaluation in records with long-term memory: Application to global warming| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L16706| doi: 10.1029/2009GL039516. 10007,2009,2,4,Trend reversal in pollinosis and airborne pollen distribution?,In recent decades a large number of epidemiological studies investigating the change of prevalence of hay fever showed an increase in the occurrence of this disease. However| other studies carried out in the 1990s yielded contradictory results in this regard. Many environmental factors have been hypothesized to contribute to the increasing hay fever rate including both indoor and ambient air pollution| reduced exposure to microbial stimulation and changes in diets. However| the observed increase has not convincingly been explained by any of these factors and there is| limited evidence of changes in exposure to these risk factors over time. Additionally| recent studies show that no further increase in asthma| hay fever and atopic sensitisation in adolescents and adults has been observed during the 1990s and the beginning of the new century. As the pattern of pollen counts has changed over the years| partly due to the global warming| but also as a consequencc of a change in the use of land| the changing prevalence of hay fever might partly be driven by this different pollen exposure. Epidemiological data for hay fever in Switzerland are available from 1926 until 2000 and Pollen data are available from 1969 until now. This allows an investigation as to whether these data are correlated. It would also be! feasible to correlate the pollen data with meteorological data which| however| is not the subject of the investigation. This study focuses on analyzing time series of pollen counts and of pollen season lengths in order to identify their trends and to ascertain whether there is a relationship between these trends and the changes in the hay fever prevalence. It is shown in this paper that the pollen exposure has been decreasing in Basel since the beginning of the 1990s whereas the rate of the hay fever prevalence in Switzerland remained approximately unchanged in this period but with a slight tendency to decrease. 866,2009,2,4,Trends in streamflow in the Yukon River Basin from 1944 to 2005 and the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,Streamflow characteristics in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska and Canada have changed from 1944 to 2005| and some of the change can be attributed to the two most recent modes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Seasonal| monthly| and annual stream discharge data from 21 stations in the Yukon River Basin were analyzed for trends over the entire period of record| generally spanning 4-6 decades| and examined for differences between the two most recent modes of the PDO: cold-PDO (1944-1975) and warm-PDO (1976-2005) subsets. Between 1944 and 2005| average winter and April flow increased at 15 sites. Observed winter flow increases during the cold-PDO phase were generally limited to sites in the Upper Yukon River Basin. Positive trends in winter flow during the warm-PDO phase broadened to include stations in the Middle and Lower Yukon River drainage basins. Increases in winter streamflow most likely result from groundwater input enhanced by permafrost thawing that promotes infiltration and deeper subsurface flow paths. Increased April flow may be attributed to a combination of greater baseflow (from groundwater increases)| earlier spring snowmelt and runoff| and increased winter precipitation| depending on location. Calculated deviations from long-term mean monthly discharges indicate below-average flow in the winter months during the cold PDO and above-average flow in the winter months during the warm PDO. Although not as strong a signal| results also support the reverse response during the summer months: above-average flow during the cold PDO and below-average flow during the warm PDO. Changes in the summer flows are likely an indirect consequence of the PDO| resulting from earlier spring snowmelt runoff and also perhaps increased summer infiltration and storage in a deeper active layer. Annual discharge has remained relatively unchanged in the Yukon River Basin| but a few glacier-fed rivers demonstrate positive trends. which can be attributed to enhanced glacier melting. A positive trend in annual flow during the warm PDO near the mouth of the Yukon River suggests that small increases in flow throughout the Yukon River Basin have resulted in an additive effect manifested in the downstream-most streamflow station. Many of the identified changes in streamflow patterns in the Yukon River Basin show a correlation to the PDO regime shift. This work highlights the importance of considering proximate climate forcings as well as global climate change when assessing hydrologic changes in the Arctic. Published by Elsevier B.V. 9869,2009,2,4,Tropical ecology: an overview,This article briefly describes the major tropical biomes| outlines various forces that are currently driving changes in human-natural ecosystem interactions| and discusses the Himalaya - Gangetic Plains relationships. Tropical rain forests of different continents differ widely in key biological factors and threats to which they are subjected. In Amazonia and Himalayas - Gangetic Plains system| tropics have two extraordinary systems of global significance. While Amazonia stands out for its unbelievable biodiversity and the sheer dimensions of the river basin| Himalayan ecosystem services sustain the agricultural activity in the Gangetic Plains that supports nearly 500 million people. Tropical countries are predicted to suffer more from global warming| and it will be a great setback to the poor of the world who only now have begun to taste some benefits of a rapid economic growth. Tropical countries have comparatively much lower eco-footprints than developed countries| but situation is changing at least in some countries. There is a positive relationship between per capita GDP and environmental quality|. but this may not hold true for a much larger population at a high consumption rate The temperate region countries could maintain a clean environment despite their high per capita consumption| partly by exploiting environment of other countries. Tropical countries would not have freedom to exploit environment of other countries| and their development activities are going to encounter a severe energy crisis| and problems of a world the carrying capacity of which has already been exceeded. 10086,2009,5,4,TROPICAL OCHROPHYTE ALGAE FROM THE EOCENE OF NORTHERN CANADA: A BIOGEOGRAPHIC RESPONSE TO PAST GLOBAL WARMING,We report on exquisitely preserved specimens of freshwater siliceous algae belonging to the classes Synurophyceae (scaled chrysophytes) and Bacillariophyceae (diatoms) from middle Eocene lake sediments in Northern Canada. When considered in the context of closest extant relatives| these microfossils present unequivocal biogeographic and ecological affinities with warm-water ochrophyte assemblages. We have identified scales that are unambiguously assigned to Mallomonas bangladeshica| a chrysophyte now restricted to tropical lake ecosystems. The diatom genus Actinella is also well represented in these sediments| again with the most comparable extant congeners found in tropical to subtropical localities| particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. We surmise that fundamental biogeographic reorganizations among lacustrine algae took place during Eocene hothouse paleoclimates. In this light| future climate warming should be viewed as a potent vector for similar community shifts| with attendant limnological implications. 10298,2009,4,4,Tropical Pacific Climate and Its Response to Global Warming in the Kiel Climate Model,A new| non-flux-corrected| global climate model is introduced| the Kiel Climate Model (KCM)| which will be used to study internal climate variability from interannual to millennial time scales and climate predictability of the first and second kind. The version described here is a coarse-resolution version that will be employed in extended-range integrations of several millennia. KCM's performance in the tropical Pacific with respect to mean state| annual cycle| and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is described. Additionally| the tropical Pacific response to global warming is studied. Overall| climate drift in a multicentury control integration is small. However| KCM exhibits an equatorial cold bias at the surface of the order 1 degrees C| while strong warm biases of several degrees are simulated in the eastern tropical Pacific on both sides off the equator| with maxima near the coasts. The annual and semiannual cycles are realistically simulated in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific| respectively. ENSO performance compares favorably to observations with respect to both amplitude and period. An ensemble of eight greenhouse warming simulations was performed| in which the CO(2) concentration was increased by 1% yr(-1) until doubling was reached| and stabilized thereafter. Warming of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) is| to first order| zonally symmetric and leads to a sharpening of the thermocline. ENSO variability increases because of global warming: during the 30-yr period after CO(2) doubling| the ensemble mean standard deviation of Nino-3 SST anomalies is increased by 26% relative to the control| and power in the ENSO band is almost doubled. The increased variability is due to both a strengthened (22%) thermocline feedback and an enhanced (52%) atmospheric sensitivity to SST; both are associated with changes in the basic state. Although variability increases in the mean| there is a large spread among ensemble members and hence a finite probability that in the "model world" no change in ENSO would be observed. 10090,2009,2,3,Tropical SST Response to Global Warming in the Twentieth Century,The trend of sea surface temperature (SST) in the twentieth century is examined in observations and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) twentieth-century simulations. The observed SST neither shows a clear signal of the enhanced equatorial response (EER) warming nor exhibits a clear trend of the El Nino-like warming in the last century. Similarly| the IPCC simulations show neither a clear EER warming nor an El Nino-like warming in the last century. Furthermore| the comparison of heat fluxes in model simulations of the global warming scenario and the twentieth century indicates that the aerosol cooling effect| opposite to the greenhouse gases warming effect| plays an important role in the twentieth century and explains the EER-like signal in the twentieth-century simulations. Therefore| a conclusion that the IPCC model simulations of the twentieth century are consistent with observations within the error bars as well as the future projection of the EER warming pattern in the global warming scenario are validated. 10089,2009,4,3,Tropical Water Vapor and Cloud Feedbacks in Climate Models: A Further Assessment Using Coupled Simulations,By comparing the response of clouds and water vapor to ENSO forcing in nature with that in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations by some leading climate models| an earlier evaluation of tropical cloud and water vapor feedbacks has revealed the following two common biases in the models: 1) an underestimate of the strength of the negative cloud albedo feedback and 2) an overestimate of the positive feedback from the greenhouse effect of water vapor. Extending the same analysis to the fully coupled simulations of these models as well as other Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) coupled models| it is found that these two biases persist. Relative to the earlier estimates from AMIP simulations| the overestimate of the positive feedback from water vapor is alleviated somewhat for most of the coupled simulations. Improvements in the simulation of the cloud albedo feedback are only found in the models whose AMIP runs suggest either a positive or nearly positive cloud albedo feedback. The strength of the negative cloud albedo feedback in all other models is found to be substantially weaker than that estimated from the corresponding AMIP simulations. Consequently| although additional models are found to have a cloud albedo feedback in their AMIP simulations that is as strong as in the observations| all coupled simulations analyzed in this study have a weaker negative feedback from the cloud albedo and therefore a weaker negative feedback from the net surface heating than that indicated in observations. The weakening in the cloud albedo feedback is apparently linked to a reduced response of deep convection over the equatorial Pacific| which is in turn linked to the excessive cold tongue in the mean climate of these models. The results highlight that the feedbacks of water vapor and clouds-the cloud albedo feedback in particular-may depend on the mean intensity of the hydrological cycle. Whether the intermodel variations in the feedback from cloud albedo (water vapor) in the ENSO variability are correlated with the intermodel variations of the feedback from cloud albedo (water vapor) in global warming has also been examined. While a weak positive correlation between the intermodel variations in the feedback of water vapor during ENSO and the intermodel variations in the water vapor feedback during global warming was found| there is no significant correlation found between the intermodel variations in the cloud albedo feedback during ENSO and the intermodel variations in the cloud albedo feedback during global warming. The results suggest that the two common biases revealed in the simulated ENSO variability may not necessarily be carried over to the simulated global warming. These biases| however| highlight the continuing difficulty that models have in simulating accurately the feedbacks of water vapor and clouds on a time scale of the observations available. 9866,2009,2,4,Turning points| reproduction number| and impact of climatological events for multi-wave dengue outbreaks,OBJECTIVES To study climatological and public health events which might have affected the 2007 two-wave dengue outbreak in Taiwan| an island with both tropical and subtropical regions| where the 2007 dengue incidence exceeded the combined total of the previous four years. METHODS A multi-phase Richards model was fitted to weekly cumulative dengue data to pinpoint the turning points of the outbreak. We obtained the 'initial' reproduction numbers for the two waves of the outbreak. By means of correlation analysis we explored the possible impact of climatological events on the occurrence of turning points. RESULTS Three turning points occurred around early August| late August/early September| and late October/early November. The 'initial' reproduction number for the first wave was R(i) = 4.67 (95% CI: 0*-10.92)| where 0* = max\{0| lower bound\}| and R(i) = 3.93 ( 95% CI: 1.74-6.13) for the second wave. The highest correlation was between dengue incidence and two climatological variables: maximum temperature at a lag of 5 weeks (r = 0.66 and 0.71) and total precipitation at a lag of seven weeks (r = 0.53). CONCLUSIONS The first two turning points were partially attributable to two typhoons around early to mid-August that brought a sharp drop in temperature and substantial rainfall. The drop in temperature first drove the dengue incidence down| then the rainfall drove it up at the beginning of fall. In recent years| Taiwan has witnessed increasingly frequent large summer dengue outbreaks that persisted into early winter| perhaps due to warmer autumns. This highlights the possible impact of global warming on the spread of infectious diseases. 9828,2009,2,4,Twenty-five years of change in scleractinian coral communities of Daya Bay (northern South China Sea) and its response to the 2008 AD extreme cold climate event,Coral reefs worldwide are becoming increasingly and detrimentally impacted upon by a variety of factors including significant climate changes| such as global warming and increased El Nino-Southern Oscillation activity. Generally| the persistence of coral reefs| especially at low-latitudes| is governed| in part| by sea surface temperatures not exceeding the critical limit (similar to 30A degrees C) at which mass mortality can occur. Thus| it is thought that corals living at high-latitudes (i.e.| currently cooler sea surface temperatures) will likely respond more favourably to hypothesized future temperature increases than corals living at low-latitudes (i.e.| currently warmer sea surface temperatures). Consequently| high-latitude coral communities may have the potential to act as regions of refugia for many coral species in the face of potential future global warming. The Daya Bay (22A degrees 31'aEuro"22A degrees 50'N)| northern South China Sea| contains several high-latitude non-reefal coral communities and represents one of the most northerly distributions of scleractinian corals within the region. Significantly| Daya Bay has experienced dramatic warming in both air and sea surface temperatures throughout the past 50 years. In this paper| we analyze 25 years of change in the Daya Bay coral communities| based both on historic surveys and our latest 2006-2008 regional ecological surveys. Our results suggest that| contrary to predictions| there have been significant declines in coral cover within the Daya Bay during the past 25 years (i.e.| 76.6% coral cover in 1983/1984 to only 15.3% coral cover by 2008). Such changes also reflect a significant shift in the most abundant coral species| from Acropora pruinosa to Favites abdita. Most of the modern coral communities became established between 15 and 30 years ago| corresponding to a period of increased winter sea surface temperature. However| very few colonies have become established within the last 15 years| despite a more intense period of warming. By taking into account additional factors| we hypothesize that direct anthropogenic impacts| rather than climatic events| have both restricted the development| and drove the decline| of Daya Bay coral communities in the last 15 years. The Daya Bay has also been subjected to occasional extreme cold events during the past 50 years| with the most recent occurring in early 2008 (13 January-13 February). During the 2008 cold event| the lowest air temperature reaches only 6.6A degrees C| and the mean sea surface temperature for February fall to < 14A degrees C| including six continuous days at 12.3A degrees C. Significantly| the sea surface temperatures fall below the hypothesized critical lower temperature threshold (similar to 13A degrees C) that commonly leads to mass mortality in scleractinian coral communities. Surprisingly| our coral community surveys| conducted both before (August 2007) and after (late February 2008) the extreme 2008 cold event| demonstrate that the Daya Bay coral ecosystems are barely impacted upon during the cold period. Those observations suggest that the Daya Bay scleractinian coral communities have developed adaptations to low sea surface temperatures. Overall| our data support the hypothesis that high-latitude coral communities| such as Daya Bay| have the potential to act as areas of refugia for scleractinian corals in the advent of potential future global warming. 945,2009,4,4,Two Approaches for Inter-Satellite Radiometer Calibrations between TMI and WindSat,This paper presents recent progress in inter-satellite microwave radiometric cross-calibration to eliminate brightness temperature measurement biases between a pair of radiometer channels operating at slightly different frequencies and incidence angles. The motivation of this research is to develop robust analytical cross-calibration techniques for inter-calibration of various satellite radiometer instruments| with the first projected application being the multi-satellite Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation to be launched in 2013. The significance of this work is that it will allow the formation of consistent multi-decadal time series of geophysical measurements for multiple satellite microwave radiometers that are free of instrumental biases and other long-term changes in radiometric calibration| which will allow researchers to study global climate change. Descriptions are given for two independent calibration techniques: a Taylor series expansion of the oceanic brightness temperature (T(b)) spectrum between dissimilar radiometer channels and a non-linear regression among multi-channel T(b) measurements. In the first approach| predictions were made of T(b)'s at a destination frequency from T(b)'s of a close by source frequency by expansion of the oceanic brightness temperature spectrum in a Taylor series centered at the source frequency. The relationships between T(b)'s and frequencies were derived from simulations using a radiative transfer model (RTM)| which accounts for the total collected emissions from the ocean surface and the atmosphere. Further| earth incidence angle differences between radiometer channels were transformed in a similar manner using the partial derivatives of T(b) with incidence angle derived from RTM simulations. In the second approach| we used a prediction algorithm that relies on the correlation between radiometer T(b)'s at various frequencies and polarizations and which uses a regression on the T(b)'s and their non-linear transformations developed using an independent radiative transfer model. As a demonstration| near-simultaneous pair-wise ocean T(b) comparisons are presented between the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI)| which is not sun synchronous| and the sun-synchronous polar orbiting WindSat| using oceanic T(b) observations from 2003-04. The corresponding results between these two inter-satellite calibration techniques are highly correlated| and results demonstrate that fixed channel-by-channel differences| of order 1 - 2 K exist between TMI and WindSat. These are significant radiometric calibration differences| which can be removed prior to forming joint data sets of geophysical parameter retrievals. 10228,2009,5,4,Two episodes of foraminiferal extinction near the Permian-Triassic boundary at the Meishan section| South China,Stratigraphic distributions of foraminifer species from the Permian-Triassic (P/Tr) transition of the Meishan section| South China demonstrate two episodes of biotic mass extinction near the P/Tr boundary. The first episode is calibrated to the top of Bed 24 and is indicated by a loss of 49 out of 64 Changhsingian species (77%). The second phase is expressed by the disappearance of 32 out of 34 species (94%) recorded in Beds 25-27 and corresponds to the base of Bed 28. Only Nodosinelloides aequiampla survived into the early Griesbachian and another species| Glomospira regularis| rebounded in the late Griesbachian. The Lagenida and Textulariida lost 71% and 50% of species| respectively| in the first episode of the P/Tr extinction. In the Lagenida| only one taxon temporarily survived over the second crisis but became extinct soon after in Bed 29| while one newcomer occurred in the late Griesbachian. In the Textulariida| one Lazarus species rebounded in the late Griesbachian when two new forms rose. Both the Fusulinida and Miliolida suffered a great loss in the first extinction event| losing about 85% and 89% of the species| respectively. Their temporary survivors were wiped out in the second episode of the P/Tr crisis. The large| architecturally complex taxa suffered the first crisis much more severely than the small| simple tests. Selective extinction and rebound among the forms bearing various test walls probably indicate the different physiological reactions of various foraminifer groups to the defaunation events such as biocalcification crisis| hypercapnia| elevated CO2 content and global warming that prevailed in the aftermath of the P/Tr mass extinction. 827,2009,5,4,Two Modes of North American Drought from Instrumental and Paleoclimatic Data,Droughts| which occur as a part of natural climate variability| are expected to increase in frequency and/or severity with global climate change. An improved understanding of droughts and their association with atmospheric circulation will add to the knowledge about the controls on drought| and the ways in which changes in climate may impact droughts. In this study| 1) major drought patterns across the United States have been defined| 2) the robustness of these patterns over time using tree-ring-based drought reconstructions have been evaluated| and 3) the drought patterns with respect to global atmospheric pressure patterns have been assessed. From this simple assessment| it is suggested that there are two major drought patterns across North America| which together account for about 30% of the total variance in drought patterns-one resembles the classic ENSO teleconnection| and the other displays an east-west drought dipole. The same two patterns are evident in the instrumental data and the reconstructed drought data for two different periods| 1404-2003 and 900-1350. The 500-mb circulation patterns associated with the two drought patterns suggest that the controls on drought may come from both Northern Hemisphere and tropical sources. The two drought patterns| and presumably their associated circulation patterns| vary in strength over time| indicating the combined effects of the two patterns on droughts over the past millennium. 9334,2009,3,4,UK scenario of islanded operation of active distribution networks with renewable distributed generators,This paper reports on the current UK scenario of islanded operation of active distribution networks with renewable distributed generators (RDGs). Different surveys indicate that the present scenario does not economically justify islanding operation of active distribution networks with RDGs. Anti-islanding protection schemes currently enforce the renewable distributed generators (RDGs) to disconnect immediately and stop generation for grid faults through loss of grid (LOG) protection system. This greatly reduces the benefits of RDG deployment. With rising RDG penetration| much benefit would be lost if the RDGs are not allowed to island only due to conventional operational requirement of utilities. For preventing disconnection of RDGs during LOG| several islanding operation| control and protection schemes are being developed. Technical studies clearly indicate the need to review parts of the ESQCR (Electricity Safety| Quality and Continuity Regulations) for successful islanded operations. Commercial viability of islanding operation must be assessed in relation to enhancement of power quality| system reliability and supply of potential ancillary services through network support. Demonstration projects under Registered Power Zone and Technical Architecture Projects should be initiated to investigate the usefulness of DG islanding. However these efforts should be compounded with a realistic judgement of the associated technical and economic issues for the development of future power networks. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10239,2009,4,4,Uncertainties in modelling CH(4) emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: effect of hydrological model and CH(4) model structure,Methane (CH(4)) fluxes from northern wetlands may have influenced atmospheric CH(4) concentrations at climate warming phases during the last 800 000 years and during the present global warming. Including these CH(4) fluxes in earth system models is essential to understand feedbacks between climate and atmospheric composition. Attempts to model CH(4) fluxes from wetlands have previously been undertaken using various approaches. Here| we test a process-based wetland CH(4) flux model (PEATLANDVU) which includes details of soil-atmosphere CH(4) transport. The model has been used to simulate CH(4) emissions from continental Europe in previous glacial climates and the current climate. This paper presents results regarding the sensitivity of modeling glacial terrestrial CH(4) fluxes to ( a) basic tuning parameters of the model| (b) different approaches in modeling of the water table| and ( c) model structure. In order to test the model structure| PEATLAND-VU was compared to a simpler modeling approach based on wetland primary production estimated from a vegetation model (BIOME 3.5). The tuning parameters are the CH(4) production rate from labile organic carbon and its temperature sensitivity. The modelled fluxes prove comparatively insensitive to hydrology representation| while sensitive to microbial parameters and model structure. Glacial climate emissions are also highly sensitive to assumptions about the extent of ice cover and exposed seafloor. Wetland expansion over low relief exposed seafloor areas have compensated for a decrease of wetland area due to continental ice cover. 10314,2009,2,3,Uncertainties in the response of a forest landscape to global climatic change,Many studies have been conducted to quantify the possible ecosystem/landscape response to the anticipated global warming. However| there is a large amount of uncertainty in the future climate predictions used for these studies. Specifically| the climate predictions can be very different based on a variety of global climate models and alternative greenhouse emission scenarios. In this study| we coupled a forest landscape model| LANDIS-II| and a forest process model| PnET-II| to examine the uncertainty (that results from the uncertainty in the future climate predictions) in the forest-type composition prediction for a transitional forest landscape [the Boundary Water Canoe Area]. Using an improved global-sensitivity analysis technique [Fourier amplitude sensitivity test]| we also quantified the amount of uncertainty in the forest-type composition prediction contributed by different climate variables including temperature| CO(2)| precipitation and photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). The forest landscape response was simulated for the period 2000-2400 ad based on the differential responses of 13 tree species under an ensemble of 27 possible climate prediction profiles (monthly time series of climate variables). Our simulations indicate that the uncertainty in the forest-type composition becomes very high after 2200 ad| which is close to the time when the current forests are largely removed by windthrow disturbances and natural mortality. The most important source of uncertainty in the forest-type composition prediction is from the uncertainty in temperature predictions. The second most important source is PAR| the third is CO(2) and the least important is precipitation. Our results also show that if the optimum photosynthetic temperature rises due to CO(2) enrichment| the forest landscape response to climatic change measured by forest-type composition may be substantially reduced. 9460,2009,3,4,Uncertainty of global warming potential for milk production on a New Zealand farm and implications for decision making,Background| aim and scope As a food exporting nation| New Zealand recognises that the Global Warming Potential (GWP) impact of agriculture has become important to food customers. Food production policy and industry analysts make GWP decisions based on greenhouse gas inventory and life cycle assessment (LCA) results. For decision making| the level of confidence associated with information is important. However| treatment of uncertainty has been problematic in LCA| especially in agricultural systems. In this paper| the GWP of 1 kg of milk was used as a case study to test the feasibility of quantifying uncertainties by Monte Carlo simulation in an LCA applied to an agriculture product. The study also contributes to the development of good practice and has implications for the incorporation of uncertainties into decision making. Materials and methods We distinguished between three sources of variation. First| there is variability amongst basic units such as dairy cattle| soils and farm characteristics which may be quantified by the standard deviation (SD). Second| there is uncertainty about true population means| which is typically provided by a sample and can be measured by the standard error of the mean (SEM). Third| choices| such as the time horizon for computing GWP| can strongly affect the LCA outcomes. The first two sources were analysed by compiling input variable statistics and undertaking Monte Carlo numerical simulations. The third source of variation was quantified by sensitivity analysis. Results Up to the farm-gate stage| the mean GWP of 1 kg of milk (computed over 100 years) was 0.96 kg CO(2)-eq. The associated SD was 38% of the mean when using the SD of input variables (and called "variability") and 7% when using the SEM (and called "uncertainty"). The GWP was most sensitive to uncertainty of pasture dry matter intake by grazing cattle. The second and third key input variables were the cattle excreta nitrous oxide emission factor and the enteric fermentation methane emission factor| respectively. Changing the GWP from a 100-year computation to one of 20 years corresponded to GWP increasing by 92%| while for a change from 100 to 500 years GWP declined by 54%. Discussion Data compilation for the uncertainty analyses was challenging because the measurements available were made over smaller time and space scales than ideal| so observations had to be generalised and data gaps filled by expert judgement. Uncertainty analysis using the SEM of input variables was considered most adapted in LCA| so it is recommended as best practice. Identification of the key parameters responsible for uncertainty in the LCA revealed knowledge gaps where research should be directed| such as for methane digestion and nitrous oxide emissions from N excreted by ruminants. Moreover| richer information for those key parameters could be used to build a typology of more meaningful simulations instead of a single| virtual average for analysing environmental impacts of the agricultural system. Conclusions The use of Monte Carlo simulations for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of LCA estimates for an agricultural product was feasible and recommendations were made. Developing a typology of realistic simulations based on the key parameters identified in the sensitivity analysis could provide decision makers with more information. Furthermore| in comparative LCA studies| a probabilistic framework provides further information including the statistical significance of differences between technological options. This would represent considerable progress for the decision-making process. Recommendations and perspectives We recommend that uncertainty information such as SEM| when available| be part of inventory data for agriculture systems in public reports and databases including assessment of its statistical meaning and consistency. 801,2009,3,4,Underground Coal Gasification: A Brief Review of Current Status,Coal gasification is a promising option for the future use of coal. Similarly to gasification in industrial reactors| underground coal gasification (UCG) produces syngas| which call be used for power generation or for the production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels and other valuable chemical products. As compared with conventional mining and surface gasification| UCG promises lower capital/operating costs and also has other advantages| such as no human labor underground. In addition| UCG has the potential to be linked with carbon capture and sequestration. The increasing demand for energy| depletion of oil and gas resources| and threat of global climate change lead to growing interest in UCG throughout the world. In this article| we review the current status of this technology| focusing on recent developments in various countries. 9486,2009,2,4,Understanding future changes in snow and glacier melt runoff due to global warming in Wangar Gad basin| India,Himalayas has one of the largest concentrations of glaciers and permanent snow fields. These are sensitive to climate change. Snow and glacier runoffs are important sources of water for the Himalayan rivers. Due to steep slopes| all these streams are potential sites for hydropower generation. To understand the power potential of small sub-basins| a snowmelt run-off model has been developed for Malana nala located in the Parbati river basin near Kullu in Himachal Pradesh and validated at the adjacent Tosh nala in the same basin. In the model| information generated through remote sensing techniques were used in conjunction with the daily maximum and minimum temperatures| rainfall and snow fall. This model is now extended to understand the effect of global warming in stream runoff and power generation. To understand changes in runoff and power potential| possible changes in the input parameters were estimated by considering 1 C rise in temperature from 2004 to 2040. Snow line is calculated for 2040 using present altitude and lapse rate. Future change in areal extent of glacier and permanent snow were estimated using mass balance| response time and rate of melting at terminus for all glaciers in the basin. The model was validated for all seasons in 2004 and for selected seasons from 1997 to 2002. The error in runoff estimate was observed between 2 and 5%| except for the summer of 2002. The model suggests overall reduction in stream runoff by 8-28%| depending on the season. 9725,2009,2,2,Understanding Oceanic Migrations with Intrinsic Biogeochemical Markers,Migratory marine vertebrates move annually across remote oceanic water masses crossing international borders. Many anthropogenic threats such as overfishing| bycatch| pollution or global warming put millions of marine migrants at risk especially during their long-distance movements. Therefore| precise knowledge about these migratory movements to understand where and when these animals are more exposed to human impacts is vital for addressing marine conservation issues. Because electronic tracking devices suffer from several constraints| mainly logistical and financial| there is emerging interest in finding appropriate intrinsic markers| such as the chemical composition of inert tissues| to study long-distance migrations and identify wintering sites. Here| using tracked pelagic seabirds and some of their own feathers which were known to be grown at different places and times within the annual cycle| we proved the value of biogeochemical analyses of inert tissue as tracers of marine movements and habitat use. Analyses of feathers grown in summer showed that both stable isotope signatures and element concentrations can signal the origin of breeding birds feeding in distinct water masses. However| only stable isotopes signalled water masses used during winter because elements mainly accumulated during the long breeding period are incorporated into feathers grown in both summer and winter. Our findings shed new light on the simple and effective assignment of marine organisms to distinct oceanic areas| providing new opportunities to study unknown migration patterns of secretive species| including in relation to human-induced mortality on specific populations in the marine environment. 9963,2009,4,3,Understanding the ocean temperature change in global warming: the tropical Pacific,The response mechanisms of the tropical Pacific Ocean temperature to increased atmospheric CO(2) are investigated in a coupled climate model. Ensemble simulations are performed under both the transient and stable CO(2) forcing. It is found that the dominant mechanism for temperature change differs in different stages of global warming. During the transient stage| the surface heat flux is a major driving factor for the tropical surface warming. During the equilibrium stage| the dominant mechanism to maintain the surface warming is the meridional advection. The heat flux forcing becomes a damping factor instead| particularly for the western tropical Pacific. Different from the surface warming| the subsurface warming results from the oceanic mixings during the entire period of global warming| whereas the advection terms generally play a cooling role| consistent with the slowdown of the shallow meridional overturning circulation. This paper emphasizes the deterministic role of the dynamic adjustment of the ocean circulation in the long-term change of ocean climate. 1010,2009,2,4,Unexpected long-term population dynamics in a canopy-forming gorgonian coral following mass mortality,Gorgonian corals are long-lived| slow-growing species exhibiting slow population dynamics. Demographic data collected over a period of 11 yr on a small population of temperate| canopy-forming gorgonians dwelling near the edge of the summer thermocline in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea enabled us to assess its responses to the large mortality events that occurred in 1999 and 2003. Changes in population density| size structure and recruitment were examined. Overall| 2101 adult colonies and recruits were observed in situ and 240 photographic plots analyzed. During the first 3 years (2004 to 2006) after the mass mortalities| our measurements revealed a dramatic reduction in the density of healthy colonies (90% suffered total or partial mortality)| a shift in the dominant size class towards smaller size and a significant reduction in recruitment. In the following years (2007 to 2008) a significant recovery of injured colonies was found| with almost complete detachment of the dead colonies| a reduction in mortality and a 4-fold increase in recruitment. These findings indicate clear-cut restoration trends of the population| suggesting that recovery after extensive mortality could be faster than predicted by our current knowledge of gorgonian population dynamics. 10352,2009,3,3,Unilateral climate change mitigation| carbon leakage and competitiveness: an application to the European Union,The setting of binding targets for CO(2) emission reductions for 2020 by the European Union (EU) alone has led to concerns that unilateral climate change mitigation may not only hamper the union's competitiveness| but also result in carbon leakage. The paper explores these claims through the deployment of a dynamic| nonlinear| macro-econometric simulation called the Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) Model at the Global Scale (E3MG). In contrast to the generally held view| we argue that overall EU competitiveness may improve. We also argue that unilateral action may be effective in reducing global emissions relative to a no-climate-change-action scenario| although the reduction is very small. 10349,2009,4,4,Urban indoor-outdoor aerosol measurements in Portugal and the global warming scenario,Aerosols play a major role both in climate change and air quality. They affect climate by interfering with radiative transfer and the atmospheric temperature. Aerosol particulate matter has also been associated with various adverse health effects. Aerosol particles' number and size distributions were measured inside and outside the houses in the urban areas of Evora and Lisbon in Portugal. The impact of the occurrence of a residential fire in the aerosols' particle number is evaluated and discussed. Finally| we consider how the global increase in temperature can affect the concentration of aerosols in the atmosphere via increased boundary layer convection. 9366,2009,3,4,Use of Industrial By-Products in Urban Roadway Infrastructure,P>Incorporating the beneficial use of industrial by-products into the industrial ecology of an urban region as a substitute or supplement for natural aggregate can potentially reduce life cycle impacts. This article specifically looks at the utilization of industrial by-products (IBPs) (coal ash| foundry sand| and foundry slag) as aggregate for roadway sub-base construction for the Pittsburgh| Pennsylvania| urban region. The scenarios compare the use of virgin aggregate with the use of a combination of both virgin and IBP aggregate| where the aggregate material is selected based on proximity to the construction site and allows for minimization of transportation impacts. The results indicate that the use of IBPs to supplement virgin aggregate on a regional level has the potential of reducing impacts related to energy use| global warming potential| and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO(x))| sulfur dioxide (SO(2))| carbon monoxide (CO)| PM(10) (particulate matter-10 microns)| mercury (Hg)| and lead (Pb). Regional management of industrial by-products would allow for the incorporation of these materials into the industrial ecology of a region and reduce impacts from the disposal of the IBP materials and the extraction of virgin materials and minimize the impacts from transportation. The combination of reduced economic and environmental costs provides a strong argument for state transportation agencies to develop symbiotic relationships with large IBP producers in their regions to minimize impacts associated with roadway construction and maintenance-with the additional benefit of improved management of these materials. 10061,2009,3,3,Used lubricating oil management options based on life cycle thinking,Used lubricating oil (ULO) is among those difficult-to-handle anthropogenic pollutants due to its toxicity and handling difficulty. The selection of proper abatement technologies for ULO depends significantly on the appropriateness of the technology not only in technical terms| but also in environmental points of view. In the present work| six management scenarios for the management of ULO were evaluated for their environmental impacts based on life cycle approach. Two of them| i.e. acid clay and solvent extraction are the treatment processes for the recovery of ULO and the main product from these processes is recycled used oil. The other four scenarios| i.e. small boiler| vaporizing burner boiler| atomizing burner boiler| and cement kiln| are to generate energy from ULO. Emissions were characterized into four environmental impact categories: global warming potential| acidification potential| eutrophication potential| and heavy metals. The acid clay process| which has generally been believed to generate high environmental load| actually produced high environmental impact only in terms of acidification. Cement kiln created the lowest impact in terms of global warming potential and heavy metals. This was due to high temperature in cement kiln which could rightly allow the complete combustion of organic compounds in ULO whereas other contaminants such as heavy metals were captured in mortar during the cement reaction. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10094,2009,4,2,Using foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios to detect an ocean-warming trend in the twentieth century from coastal shelf sediments in the Bungo Channel| southwest Japan,To assess abnormal warming of temperature in southwest Japan's coastal seas during the twentieth century| we developed a 200 yr interannually resolved record of planktonic and benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca-based temperature using neritic coastal sediment cores. The winter to late spring bottom temperature (50 m) record| based on benthic foraminiferal (Nonion japonicum) Mg/Ca ratios in the Bungo Channel (BC)| showed consistent variation with observed temperatures on a five-year average basis. The BC bottom temperature record showed a significant increasing trend of 1.5 degrees C/100 yr during the twentieth century| which was never apparent in nineteenth century| That result suggests that our Mg/Ca-based thermometry approach using coastal benthic foraminifera can detect abnormally rising temperatures in neritic coastal seas in southwest Japan. The abnormal warming of winter to late spring bottom temperature in the BC contrasts with the lack of an increasing trend in the Globigerinoides ruber-based summer to autumn temperature for the upper 20 m in the slope region of southwest Japan and the lack of an increasing trend in the steric sea level in the region. These results indicate a warming trend of the neritic coastal ocean in southwest Japan| especially in winter to late spring. The timing of the onset of the prolonged abnormal high-temperature stage| which started in the early twentieth century| suggests a link of the neritic coastal ocean in Japan with human-induced global warming. 910,2009,4,4,Using MODAWEC to generate daily weather data for the EPIC model,Although the EPIC model has been widely used in agricultural and environmental studies| applications of this model may be limited in the regions where daily weather data are not available. In this paper| a stand-alone MODAWEC model was developed to generate daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature from monthly precipitation| maximum and minimum temperature| and wet days. A case study shows that the crop yields and evapotranspiration (ET) simulated with the generated daily weather data compare very well with those simulated with the measured daily weather data with low normalized mean square errors (0.008-0.017 for crop yields and 0.003-0.004 for ET). The MODAWEC model can extend the application of the EPIC model to the regions where daily data are not available or not complete. In addition| the generated daily weather data can possibly be used by other environmental models. Associated with MODAWEC| the EPIC model can play a greater role in assessing the impacts of global climate change on future food production and water use. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9801,2009,4,2,Using models with long-term persistence to interpret the rapid increase of Earth's temperature,Statistical processes with long-term persistence (LTP) offer a promising approach to modeling the natural dynamics of Earth's temperature. One Such process| the family of 1/f-noises| is used here to assess the plausibility of a natural origin for recent global warming. Following earlier studies| a model of natural variability with UP is parameterized via paleoclimate reconstructions. The method developed here resolves a number of limitations in existing studies| primarily the problem of inaccuracies in estimating the spectral exponent of LTP. The output of the model is compared with the observed rate of temperature rise (0.61 degrees C/century between 1850 and 2007 for Northern hemispheric land air temperatures). We find that rates comparable with the observed global warming are very rarely generated by the model of natural variability (the probability is less than 2.3 x 10(-4)). Thus| natural agencies are not a Plausible explanation for the observed global warming unless all the paleoclimate reconstructions through Which the model is parameterized are underestimating natural variance by a factor of at least four. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10008,2009,2,4,Using survival regression to study patterns of expansion of invasive species: will the common waxbill expand with global warming?,Different approaches can be used to model the spread of invasive species. Here we demonstrate the use of survival regression| an approach that can be used to study a variety of events| not just death| to model the time to colonization. The advantage of survival regression to study colonisation of new areas is that information on those areas that have not been invaded by the end of a study can be included in the analysis| thus potentially increasing the accuracy of parameter estimation. We use proportional hazards regression (PHR; a type of survival regression) to model the spread of the common waxbill Estrilda astrild in Portugal. The species invaded Portugal in two peaks of invasion between 1964 and 1999. We built a PHR model with the information available up to the first invasion peak| then used this model to predict the pattern of invasion in the second peak. PHR had useful forecasting capabilities: areas that were actually colonised by 1999 had significantly higher hazards of colonization based on information from the first wave of invasion than areas that were not colonised. We then built a final model of expansion of the common waxbill that combined all available data up to 1999. Among climate variables| the most important predictor of colonization was temperature| followed by relative humidity. We used this model to estimate the invasion potential of the species under climate change scenarios| observing that an increase of 1 degrees C in mean annual temperature increased the risk of a new invasion by 47%. Our analyses suggest that survival regression may be a useful tool for studying the geographical spread of invasive species. However| PHR was conceived as a descriptive technique rather than as a predictive tool| and thus further research is needed to empirically test the predictive capabilities of PHR. 9478,2009,4,3,Using tracer observations to reduce the uncertainty of ocean diapycnal mixing and climate-carbon cycle projections,What is the uncertainty of climate-carbon cycle projections in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions| and how can we reduce this uncertainty? We address this question by quantifying the ability of available ocean tracer observations to constrain the values of diapycnal diffusivity in the pelagic ocean (K(v))| a key uncertain parameter representing sub-grid-scale diapycnal (vertical) mixing in physical circulation models. We show that model versions with weak mixing (i.e.| low K(v)) lead to higher projections of atmospheric CO(2) and larger global warming than do models with vigorous mixing. Slower heat uptake and slower carbon uptake by the oceans contribute about equally to the accelerated warming in the low-mixing models. A Bayesian data-model fusion method is developed to quantify the likelihood of different structural and parametric model choices given an array of observed 20th century ocean tracer distributions. These spatially resolved observations provide strong limits on the upper value of K(v)| whereas global metrics used in previous studies| such as the historical evolution of global average surface air temperature| global ocean heat uptake| or atmospheric CO(2) concentration| provide only poor constraints. We compare different methods to quantify the probability of a particular diffusivity value given the observational constraints. One-dimensional| globally horizontally averaged data result in sharper probability density functions compared with the full 3-D fields. This perhaps unexpected result opens up an avenue to objectively determine the optimal degree of aggregation at which model predictions have skill| and at which observations are most helpful in constraining model parameters. Our best estimate for K(v) in the pelagic pycnocline is around 0.05-0.2 cm(2)/s| in agreement with earlier independent estimates based on tracer dispersion experiments and turbulence microstructure measurements. 10312,2009,4,4,Variability of Arrival Dates of Maine Migratory Breeding Birds: Implications for Detecting Climate Change,Many authors have recently used changes in arrival dates of migratory breeding birds as a measure of environmental change due to global warming. In this paper| I present a comparative analysis of the intra-annual variability in first arrival dates for 107 species of migratory breeding birds in Maine. Data come from volunteer observers in the southern two-thirds of the state from 1994 through 2005. Using the Julian date for each first arrival| standard deviations were tabulated for each species in each year. The results indicate that some species| specifically leaf-gleaning insectivores and aerial insectivores| have relatively low variance of first arrival dates while other species show more protracted migrations and hence greater variability around the mean arrival date. Post hoc considerations of the patterns of variability suggest that diet may be an important determinant of variance in arrival date. The data indicate that researchers should concentrate on species with lower variances of arrival date to increase the statistical power for testing changes in arrival dates as global warming proceeds. 881,2009,2,4,Variable strength of top-down effects in Nothofagus forests: bird predation and insect herbivory during an ENSO event,Predators are thought to play a key role in controlling herbivory| thus having positive indirect effects on plants. However| evidence for terrestrial trophic cascades is still fragmentary| perhaps due to variation in top-down forces created by environmental heterogeneity. We examined the magnitude of predation effects on foliar damage by chewing insects and mean leaf size| by excluding birds from saplings in 'dry' and 'wet' Nothofagus pumilio forests in the northern Patagonian Andes| Argentina. The experiment lasted 2 years| encompassing a severe drought during the La Nina phase of a strong El Nino/Southern Oscillation event| which was followed by unusually high background folivory levels. Insect damage was consistently higher in wet than in dry forest saplings. In the drought year (1999)| bird exclusion increased folivory rates in both forests but did not affect tree leaf size. In the ensuing season (2000)| leaf damage was generally twice as high as in the drought year. As a result| bird exclusion not only increased the extent of folivory but also significantly decreased sapling leaf size. The latter effect was stronger in the wet forest| suggesting compensation of leaf area loss by dry forest saplings. Overall| the magnitude of predator indirect effects depended on the response variable measured. Insectivorous birds were more effective at reducing folivory than at facilitating leaf area growth. Our results indicate that bird-initiated trophic cascades protect N. pumilio saplings from insect damage even during years with above-normal herbivory| and also support the view that large-scale climatic events influence the strength of trophic cascades. 9632,2009,2,4,Variable temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon in North American forests,We investigated mean residence time (MRT) for soil organic carbon (SOC) sampled from paired hardwood and pine forests located along a 22 degrees C mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient in North America. We used acid hydrolysis fractionation| radiocarbon analyses| long-term laboratory incubations (525-d)| and a three-pool model to describe the size and kinetics of the acid insoluble C (AIC)| active and slow SOC fractions in soil. We found that active SOC was 2 +/- 0.2% (mean +/- SE) of total SOC| with an MRT of 33 +/- 6 days that decreased strongly with increasing MAT. In contrast| MRT for slow SOC and AIC (70 +/- 6% and 27 +/- 6% of total SOC| respectively) ranged from decades to thousands of years| and neither was significantly related to MAT. The accumulation of AIC (as a percent of total SOC) was greater in hardwood than pine stands (36% and 21%| respectively) although the MRT for AIC was longer in pine stands. Based on these results| we suggest that the responsiveness of most SOC decomposition in upland forests to global warming will be less than currently modeled| but any shifts in vegetation from hardwood to pine may alter the size and MRT of SOC fractions. 10292,2009,2,4,Variation in spring and autumn frost tolerance among provenances of Russian larches (Larix Mill.),Spring and autumn frost tolerance was measured using material from a range-wide (50-67 N| 38-158 E) provenance trial of four Russian larch species (Larix sukaczewii Dyl.| L. sibirica Ledeb.| L. gmelinii Rupr. and L. cajanderi Mayr.) growing in northern Sweden. Shoots were collected in early May and late September and frozen at -8| -12| -16 and -20C. Cambial damage was assessed visually after development under ideal conditions for 2 weeks. Differences in frost damage among provenances were highly significant in both spring and autumn. Autumn frost damage was significantly correlated with provenance latitude and longitude and spring frost damage was significantly correlated with provenance longitude but not latitude. Frost damage was not correlated with provenance elevation. North-western provenances showed the least damage and far-eastern provenances the greatest damage in both spring and autumn. A possible explanation for less spring frost damage to north-western provenances is adaptation to maritime conditions in proximity to the Barents Sea| which is often ice free in late winter. This would counteract early loss of frost tolerance and bud flushing if warm spells occurred in late winter. North-eastern Siberian provenances did not show similar adaptation and may exhibit increased spring frost damage if global warming eventually results in the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia becoming ice free in late winter. 895,2009,2,4,Variation in the abundance of invertebrate predators of the green spruce aphid Elatobium abietinum (Walker) (Homoptera: Aphididae) along an altitudinal transect,Green spruce aphid Elatobium abietinum (Walker) is a major defoliator of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) in north-west Europe and other parts of the world that have a mild and wet maritime climate. Periods of cold weather during the winter currently limit E. abietinum populations and the amount of damage| but as mean winter temperatures rise in response to global climate change| overwinter survival of the aphid is likely to improve and the risk of severe and more widespread defoliation will increase. Populations of E. abietinum are also influenced by mortality caused by generalist invertebrate predators| although the extent to which predation might modify the response of E. abietinum to climate change is unclear. In this study| the response of generalist predators to changes in environmental conditions and potential increases in E. abietinum populations was evaluated by sampling invertebrate predators in the canopy of Sitka spruce along an altitudinal gradient from 310 m to 610 m above sea-level. Variation in predator abundance was related to local climate and aphid numbers. Population densities of E. abietinum differed widely between altitudes| and showed different patterns in different years| but mean densities over the 3-year study were highest at mid altitudes. In contrast| the majority of invertebrate predators (coccinellid and cantharid beetles| syrphid larvae| brown lacewings| spiders and harvestmen) were most abundant at low altitudes. Their abundance was not correlated with E. abietinum densities| but coincided with the more favourable climatic conditions at low altitudes and the availability of alternative prey. The association of low population densities of E. abietinum with greater general abundance of invertebrate predators at low altitudes| where higher temperatures would have been expected to promote higher aphid populations| suggests that above a certain temperature regime generalist predators have the capacity to prevent E. abietinum responding to further increases in environmental temperatures and eventually cause mean Population densities to decline. Consequently| increases in the activity and abundance of natural enemies need to be considered when predicting how E. abietinum might respond to climate change. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 9495,2009,2,4,VARIATION IN THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOWERING PHENOLOGY AND ABUNDANCE: AN EXAMINATION OF TWO PAIRS OF CLOSELY RELATED WILDFLOWER SPECIES,Variability in plant phenological responses to climate change is likely to lead to changes in many ecological relationships as the climate continues to change. We used a 34-yr record of flowering times and flower abundance for four species (two Delphinium [Ranunculaceae] species and two Mertensia [Boraginaceae] species) from a subalpine plant community near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory to test the hypothesis that the phenologies of early-flowering species change more rapidly in response to climatological and other abiotic Cues than do late-flowering species| a pattern previously found in plant communities in North America and Europe. We also explored a related hypothesis| that flower abundance of late-flowering species is more responsive to changes in climate than that of early-flowering species. The Delphinium species did not support these hypotheses| but the Mertensia species did. The difference between the peak flowering times of the early and late Mertensia species is expanding| leading to a period of diminished resources for pollinators that specialize on this genus. Mertensia ciliata Populations are already severely declining in our study area| possibly as a result of earlier snowmelt. Together| these results show that the reported differences between early- and late-flowering species may be widespread| but they are not ubiquitous. 9832,2009,2,4,Variation in the intensity of tropical cyclones in connection with global warming,In connection with global warming| the growth in the intensity of tropical hurricanes is predicted. The onset of this intensification is partially illustrated by the western Atlantic cyclonic zone [1]. It is noted in [1]that| due to global warming| the sea-surface temperature (SST) over the entire world has increased by 0.6A degrees C since 1970. Since the SST basically determines the energy of tropical hurricanes| it is inferred that global warming will lead to an enhancement in their intensity. This publication presents a plot of the dynamics of SST annual mean anomalies for the northwestern Atlantic and pays special attention to significant excess mean temperatures since 1994. The anomalies are determined with respect to the mean temperature calculated from SSTs over 1901-1970. The same plot also shows that the SST at the end of the 1940s and during the 1950s exceeded the mean temperature by about 0.3 or even 0.4A degrees C| decreasing gradually to negative anomalies (-0.3A degrees C) in 1973. After that| the temperature started to increase again. Figure 1 shows a detail of this plot| which relates to the period 1950-2000. 9887,2009,2,4,Variations in snow cover and snowline altitude in Baspa Basin,The Himalayas has one of the largest concentrations of glaciers and permanent snowfields outside the polar region. Snow and glacier melt forms an important source for many rivers originating in the Himalayas. Numerous studies suggest that global warming has started affecting snow melt and stream run-off in the Himalayan region. Monitoring the snow-cover changes is therefore essential to assess the future hydrologic cycle. Snowline altitude is an important parameter to assess future changes in snow cover. Variations in snowline altitude and snow cover for the years 2004-05 and 2006-07 between October and June for Baspa River Basin located in the Kinnaur District| Himachal Pradesh are reported here. The snow cover was delineated using 54 images of AWiFS senor of Resourcesat-I satellite using NDSI technique and elevation information was generated using SRTM data. About 98% of the basin area is located below the elevation of 5800 m. The average monthly snowline altitude was estimated. The lowest snowline altitude was observed as 2425 m in February 2004-05 and 2846.25 m in March in 2006-07. 740,2009,5,4,Variations of geochemical compositions and the paleoclimatic significance of a loess-soil sequence from Garze County of western Sichuan Province| China,The West Sichuan Plateau is located in the southeast margin of the Tibetan Plateau| where the climate is mainly influenced by the Indian southwest summer monsoon and the Tibetan Plateau monsoon. In this study| detailed geochemical analysis has been carried out on Ganzisi loess-paleosol sequence in Ganze County of western Sichuan Province. The results indicate that Ganze loess and paleosol have experienced the incipient stage of chemical weathering in dust source regions| characterized by the decomposition of plagioclase which caused the depletion of mobile elements Na and Ca. The post-depositional chemical weathering is characterized by carbonate dissolution and oxidation of Fe(2+) The variations of some geochemical indexes (such as CIA values| Na/K and Fe(2+)/Fe(3+) ratios) in Ganzisi loess-paleosol sequence indicate a gradually decreased chemical weathering intensity in the dust source regions and deposition areas since 1.15 Ma BP consistent with the general increase of global ice volume| reflecting that the arid trend since 1.15 Ma BP in the southeast Tibetan Plateau is a regional response to the global climate change. The geochemical indexes in this section also reveal an obvious drying step occurred at about 250 ka BP in this region. We interpret this drying step as a result of decreased influence of the Indian southwest summer monsoon. This decrease in monsoon moisture is probably attributable to the uplift of the southeast margin of the Tibetan Plateau at about 250 ka BP. 10092,2009,2,4,Vascular diversity patterns of forest ecosystem before and after a 43-year interval under changing climate conditions in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve| northeastern China,The Changbaishan Nature Reserve (CNR) is the largest protected temperate forest in the world. It was established in 1960 to protect the virgin Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) mixed hardwood forest| a typical temperate forest of northeast China. Studies of vascular diversity patterns on the north slope of the CNR mountainside forest (800-1700 m a.s.l.) were conducted in 1963 and in 2006. The aim of this comparison was to assess the long-term effects of the protected status on plant biodiversity during the intervening 43 years. The research was carried out in three forest types: mixed coniferous and broad-leaved forest (MCBF)| mixed coniferous forest (MCF)| and sub-alpine coniferous forest (SCF)| characterized by different dominant species. The alpha diversity indicted by species richness and the Shannon-Wiener index were found to differ for the same elevations and forest types after the 43-year interval| while the beta diversity indicated by the Cody index depicted the altitudinal patterns of plant species gain and loss. The floral compositional pattern and the diversity of vascular species were generally similar along altitudinal gradients before and after the 43-year interval| but some substantial changes were evident with the altitude gradient. In the tree layer| the dominant species in 2006 were similar to those of 1963| though diversity declined with altitude. The indices in the three forest types did not differ significantly between 1963 and 2006| and these values even increased in the MCBF and MCF. However| originally dominant species| such as Pinus koraiensis| tended to decline| the proportion of broad-leaved trees increased| and the species turnover in the succession layers showed a trend to shift to higher altitudes. The diversity pattern of the understory fluctuated along the altitudinal gradient due to micro-environmental variations. A comparison of the alpha diversity indices among the three forest types reveals that the diversity of the shrub and herb layer decreased| and some rare and medicinal species disappeared. Meteorological records show that climate has changed significantly in this 43-year intervening period| and information collected from another field survey found that the most severe human disturbances to the CNR forests stemmed from the exploitation of Ginseng roots and Korean pine nuts. 9792,2009,2,4,Vector-borne diseases in equidae: factors| vectors| germs,Global movements of horses and men| climate change| global warming etc. are responsible for the increasing immigration of foreign organisms and an international exchange of infectious diseases. In this context the vector-borne diseases of equines and human beings are of special significance. Environmental factors| climate - driven changes are the reasons for changes in the size and activity of specific vector populations. They have significant influence to the biological behaviour of many different arthropods - acting as biovectors - and enable their transmission in previously non endemic areas| countries or continents. Factors that determine populations of reservoirs and amplifying hosts are in part due to the weather| winter mortality of adults and success of hatching. This is linked to management of land| agriculture| watering practising and the presence of wildlife hosts. Different populations of mosquitoes are sensitve to natural and man-induced factors. Climate change in the sense of global warming supports overwintering| which depends on temperature and snow cover. Summer populations are largely determined by the right quantity and frequency of rainfall| high humidity and warm temperatures. Low temperatures and low humidity can reduce it and low temperatures can also slow down the growth of virus in the vector mosquitoes. In this context the north-word migration of competent biovectors (arthropods) have established diseases in formerly non-endemic areas. Examples are the West Nile Virus (WNV) and the Virus of African Horse Sickness (AHS) expanding into the northern hemisphere. WNV belongs to the Japanese - B- Encephalitis complex| and AHS is an orbivirus. American Encephalomyelititides of Equidae (EEE| WEE| VEE) - belonging to the Flaviviruses - are also dependent on suitable weather conditions| but many other variable factors in their epidemic occurrence and spread are involved. WEE and EEE - like WNV - are maintained in nature between mosquitoes and birds| VEE between mosquitoes| birds and different| portly unidentified rodents. Cases of EEE or WEE have been reported from different Asiatic countries. In contrast to the mentioned viruses| which affects men and horses| the Equine Infectious Anaemia (EIA) is caused by a lentivirus and affects only equides. The virus can be transmitted by blood suckling biovectors| but also by different ex- and secretions| foetal infection| colostrum| tissue| blood transfusion| plasmaproducts etc. We have to consider that the invasion of EIA from endemic countries like Italy or regions in different countries like Romania and others into non-endemic countries is easy| supported by missing diagnostic tests and experience| uncontrolled horse travellings and imports| missing documentation etc. Tick borne diseases infecting men and horses are also common| examples are the Early Summer Meningoencephalitis (Flavivirus) and infections caused by bacteriums belonging to the familiy Boerrelia and Anaplasma. The chance of diseases from the mentioned viruses and bacteriums and their invasion into new countries can be reduced and controlled only by a coordinated strategy plan combining environmental management procedures| vector surveillance and control| surveillance of reservoirs in domestic animals| wild fauna - esp. birds - and humans and specific preventive measurements. The primary goal is to reduce vector populations by identifying and eliminating breeding and resting sites| use of larvacides and insecticides. International coordination in data and reporting systems| im- and export controls of animals| standardization and validation of diagnostic tests have to go hand in hand.
993,2009,2,4,Vectors and transmission dynamics for Setaria tundra (Filarioidea; Onchocercidae)| a parasite of reindeer in Finland,Background: Recent studies have revealed expansion by an array of Filarioid nematodes' into the northern boreal region of Finland. The vector-borne nematode| Setaria tundra| caused a serious disease outbreak in the Finnish reindeer population in 2003-05. The main aim of this study was to understand the outbreak dynamics and the rapid expansion of S. tundra in the sub arctic. We describe the vectors of S. tundra| and its development in vectors| for the first time. Finally we discuss the results in the context of the host-parasite ecology of S. tundra in Finland Results: Development of S. tundra to the infective stage occurs in mosquitoes| (genera Aedes and Anopheles). We consider Aedes spp. the most important vectors. The prevalence of S. tundra naturally infected mosquitoes from Finland varied from 0.5 to 2.5%. The rate of development in mosquitoes was temperature-dependent. Infective larvae were present approximately 14 days after a blood meal in mosquitoes maintained at room temperature (mean 21 C)| but did not develop in mosquitoes maintained outside for 22 days at a mean temperature of 14.1 C. The third-stage (infective) larvae were elongated (mean length 1411 mu m (SD 207)| and width 28 mu m (SD 2)). The anterior end was blunt| and bore two liplike structures| the posterior end slight tapering with a prominent terminal papilla. Infective larvae were distributed anteriorly in the insect's body| the highest abundance being 70 larvae in one mosquito. A questionnaire survey revealed that the peak activity of Culicidae in the reindeer herding areas of Finland was from the middle of June to the end of July and that warm summer weather was associated with reindeer flocking behaviour on mosquito-rich wetlands. Conclusion: In the present work| S. tundra vectors and larval development were identified and described for the first time. Aedes spp. mosquitoes likely serve as the most important and competent vectors for S. tundra in Finland. Warm summers apparently promote transmission and genesis of disease outbreaks by favouring the development of S. tundra in its mosquito vectors| by improving the development and longevity of mosquitoes| and finally by forcing the reindeer to flock on mosquito rich wetlands. Thus we predict that global climate change has the potential to promote the further emergence of Filarioid nematodes and the disease caused by them in subarctic regions. 9611,2009,2,4,Vegetation dynamics and expectations of the population in terms of landscape,The population barely perceives changes in vegetation that occur very quickly in subalpine regions. In recent decades| large areas have been invaded by woody plants| whilst demand for an open| attractive and readable landscape remains strong. The results of the modeling of vegetation dynamics carried out on the pasture of Larzey (VS) show a strong and rapid development of tree cover| accelerated by global warming| despite the maintenance of grazing pressure. This creates a loss in biodiversity as well as significant loss of attractiveness for the population. Thought should be engaged| on how maintaining landscapes with high environmental| aesthetic and social values| as well as on the means necessary to recognize and enhance landscape services provided by mountain agriculture. 9811,2009,2,3,Vegetation dynamics and plant CO(2) responses as positive feedbacks in a greenhouse world,An atmosphere-ocean-vegetation coupled model is used to quantify the biogeophysical feedback that emerges as vegetation adjusts dynamically to a quadrupling of atmospheric CO(2). This feedback amplifies global warming by 13%. About half of it is due to climatically induced expansion of boreal forest into tundra| reinforced by reductions in snow and sea ice cover. The other half represents a global climatic effect of increased vegetative cover (an indirect consequence of plant physiological responses to CO(2)) in the semi-arid subtropics. Enhanced absorption of shortwave radiation in these regions produces a net surface warming| which the atmosphere communicates poleward. The greatest vegetation-induced warming is co-located with large| vulnerable carbon stores in the north. These lose carbon| so that in the long term| the biospheric response to CO(2) and climate change becomes dominated by positive feedbacks that overwhelm the effect of CO(2) fertilization on terrestrial carbon stocks. Citation: O'ishi| R.| A. Abe-Ouchi| I. C. Prentice| and S. Sitch (2009)| Vegetation dynamics and plant CO(2) responses as positive feedbacks in a greenhouse world| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 36| L11706| doi: 10.1029/2009GL038217. 9594,2009,4,4,Vegetation-plot data and databases in Europe: an overview,During the last decade many electronic databases of vegetation plots| mainly phytosociological releves| were established in different European countries. These databases contain information which is extremely valuable for both testing various macroecological hypotheses and for nature conservation surveying or monitoring. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the number of vegetation plots there are in Europe| how many are stored in an electronic format and to assess their distribution across European countries and regions. We sent a questionnaire to the managers of national or regional databases of vegetation plots and other prominent vegetation ecologists. Meta-data obtained in this way indicate that there are > 4|300|000 vegetation-plot records in Europe| of which > 1|800|000 are already stored electronically. Of the electronic plots| 60% are stored in TURBOVEG databases. Most plot records probably exist in Germany| the Netherlands| France| Poland| Spain| Czech Republic| Italy| UK| Switzerland and Austria. The largest numbers of plots per unit area are in the Netherlands| Belgium| Denmark and countries of central Europe. The most computerized plots per country exist in the Netherlands (600|000)| followed by France| the Czech Republic and the UK. Due to its strong phytosociological tradition| Europe has many more vegetation plots than any other part of the world| This wealth of unique ecological information is a challenge for future biodiversity studies. With the alarming loss in biodiversity and environmental problems like global warming and ongoing changes in land use| there is an urgent need for wide-scale scientific and applied vegetation research. Developments of information systems such as SynBioSys Europe and facilitation of data flow between the national and regional databases should make it easier to use these vegetation-plot data. 12676,2009,3,2,Vehicle Emissions and Level of Service Standards: Exploratory Analysis of the Effects of Traffic Flow on Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions,In this feature| which originally appeared in the Transportation Research Board's 88th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers| a travel demand forecasting model simulated buildout conditions with operational deficiencies in critcal areas. Changes to roadway lane configurations were then made to achieve LOS thresholds of E through A. Many local jurisdictions seek to preserve adequate infrastructure by enacting level of service (LOS) policies for proposed new development. Understanding the relationship between roadway LOS policies and greenhouse gas emissions is an important step toward reducing the emissions related to global climate change. By influencing the evolution of urban infrastructure| these LOS standards can have a significant impact on the type and character of vehicle trips made and the subsequent emissions released. Currently| most jurisdictions establish LOS threshold policies based solely on operational standards and rarely consider the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions. Using a travel demand forecasting model for Grover Beach| CA| buildout conditions were simulated to make the network have operational deficiencies in critical areas| ultimately operating at a LOS F. Changes to roadway lane configurations were then made to achieve LOS thresholds of LOS E through LOS A. The resulting speed and flow data were analyzed in emission models to determine the relationship between the target LOS thresholds and emissions produced. The network was modeled for both roadway link LOS and intersection LOS conditions. For roadway links| overall| the lowest amounts of emissions were released at the LOS B threshold and the greatest incremental decrease in emissions occurred between LOS D and C. At intersections| the lowest emissions point was LOS A and the largest incremental decrease occurred between LOS D and C. When considering the feasibility of implementation of LOS thresholds| LOS C was determined to be the most effective operating point for emissions. 9694,2009,4,4,Veterinary medicine| food security and the global environment,The authors focus on the role of veterinary medicine in feeding the nine billion people projected to inhabit the planet by 2050| despite the problems of global warming| political constraints and environmental destruction. Population growth| predominantly urban| will occur mainly in developing countries| at a magnitude comparable to creating a city the size of Los Angeles| the second largest city in the United States of America| every three weeks for the next 40 years. Accompanying this growth will be a greatly increased demand for animal protein. How this burgeoning demand can be met by intensive and extensive systems of animal production is discussed| with particular reference to the immensely important role that the veterinary profession and schools must play.
10108,2009,3,3,Visible-light photoresponsive heterojunctions of (Nb-Ti-Si) and (Bi/Bi-o) nanoparticles,The increasing motivation to seek alternative sources of clean and sustainable energy has intensified| due to a growing awareness that fossil fuels are finite in quantity| and that the combustion products of such fuels contribute to global warming. Solar energy is considered one of the most readily available alternatives| but materials which are able to harness this form of energy need to be developed. This study details the development of a novel composite material| of the form of Bi/Bi-O nanoparticles supported on a (Nb-Ti-Si) oxide. Characterized using electrochemical and other methods| this material generates a photocurrent| and is capable of photo-oxidizing airborne-styrene in a fluidized-bed photoreactor when exposed to visible-light. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 795,2009,3,3,Visual Representation of Carbon Dioxide Adsorption in a Low-Volatile Bituminous Coal Molecular Model,Carbon dioxide can be sequestered in unmineable coal seams to aid in mitigating global climate change| while concurrently CH(4) can be desorbed from the coal seam and used as a domestic energy source. In this work| a previously constructed molecular representation was used to simulate several processes that occur during sequestration| such as sorption capacities of CO(2) and CH(4)| CO(2)-induced swelling| contraction because of CH(4) and water loss| and the pore-blocking role of moisture. This is carried out by calculating-the energy minima of the molecular model with different amounts Of CO(2)| CH(4)| and H(2)O. The model used is large ( > 22 000 atoms) and contains a molecular-weight distribution| so that it has the flexibility to be used by other researchers and for other purposes in the future. In the low-level molecular modeling presented here| it was anticipated that CO(2) would be adsorbed more readily than CH(4)| that swelling would be anisotropic| greater perpendicular to the bedding plane because of the rank of this coal| and finally| that| with the addition of moisture| CO(2) capacity in the coal would be reduced. As expected with this high-rank coal| there was swelling when CO(2) perturbed the structure of approximately 5%. It was found that| on the basis of the interconnected pore structure and molecular sizes| CO(2) was able to access 12.4% more of the pore volume (as defined by helium) than CH(4)| in the rigid molecular representation. With water as stationary molecules| mostly hydrogen bound to the coal oxygen functionality| pore access decreased by 5.1% of the pore volume for CO(2) accessibility and 4.7% of the pore volume for CH(4) accessibility. 9735,2009,3,4,Volatiles and char combustion rates of demineralised lignite and wood blends,Today| much interest is given to the utilisation of materials of plant origin as substitutions of fossil fuels in meeting energy needs to reduce the level of atmospheric pollutant emissions and global warming threat| and emphasis has been placed on the co-combustion of coal and biomass. In this study| volatiles and char combustion behaviour of the fuel pellets composed from demineralised lignite and poplar wood sawdust| were investigated in a cylindrical wire mesh basket placed in a preheated tube furnace. The results have shown that ignition times of the pellets decreased with the burning temperature and shortened further due to demineralisation of lignite. Volatiles combustion rates of the samples did not correlate well with combustion times. However| they can be correlated with their respective proximate volatile matter contents. Char burnout times decreased with increasing combustion rates and correlated well with the respective proximate fixed carbon contents of the samples. Deviations were more considerable in the case of rate data. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9967,2009,4,2,Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne,Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures(1). But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain(1-3)| complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming(4-8). Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions(9-11). Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore| the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO(2))| about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began| results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures| with a 5-95% confidence interval of 1.3-3.9 degrees C. 735,2009,2,4,Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa,Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa| with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends| this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030| or an additional 393|000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures. 9845,2009,2,4,Warming trend in northern East China Sea in recent four decades,Global warming has become a notable trend especially since an abrupt climate change in 1976. Response of the East China Sea (ECS) to the global warming trend| however| is not well understood because of sparse long-term observation. In this paper| hydrographic observation data of 1957-1996 are collected and reviewed to study climatological variability in northern ECS. Significant warming trends are found in both summer and winter. In summer| the average SST is about 0.46A degrees C higher during the period of 1977-1996 than that of 1957-1976| and the Taiwan Warm Current Water (TWCW) was strengthened. In winter| despite of the cooling effect in the coastal areas adjacent to the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Estuary (CRE)| the average SST increase was about 0.53A degrees C during the same period. The causes of this SST warming up in summer are different from in winter. The warming trend and intensification of the TWCW in summer were primarily influenced by the strengthening of the Kuroshio transport| while the warming in winter was mainly induced by the variability of the climate system. 904,2009,2,3,Water quality and coral bleaching thresholds: Formalising the linkage for the inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef| Australia,The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic climate change are widely known. Here| the additional role of poor water quality in lowering the thermal tolerance (i.e. bleaching 'resistance') of symbiotic reef corals is considered. In particular| a quantitative linkage is established between terrestrially-sourced dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loading and the upper thermal bleaching thresholds of inshore reefs on the Great Barrier Reef| Australia. Significantly| this biophysical linkage provides concrete evidence for the oft-expressed belief that improved coral reef management will increase the regional-scale survival prospects of corals reefs to global climate change. Indeed| for inshore reef areas with a high runoff exposure risk| it is shown that the potential benefit of this 'local' management imperative is equivalent to similar to 2.0-2.5 degrees C in relation to the upper thermal bleaching limit; though in this case| a potentially cost-prohibitive reduction in end-of-river DIN of >50-80% would be required. An integrated socio-economic modelling framework is outlined that will assist future efforts to understand (optimise) the alternate tradeoffs that the water quality/coral bleaching linkage presents. Crown Copyright (c) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10282,2009,2,4,Water relations and photosynthetic performance in Larix sibirica growing in the forest-steppe ecotone of northern Mongolia,Shoot water relations were studied in Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) trees growing at the borderline between taiga and steppe in northern Mongolia. Larix sibirica is the main free species in these forests covering 80% of Mongolia's forested area. Minimum shoot water potentials (Psi(m)) close to the point of zero turgor (Psi(0)) repeatedly recorded throughout the growing season Suggest that the water relations in L. sibirica were often critical. The Psi(m) varied in close relation to the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit| whereas Psi(0) was correlated with monthly precipitation. Young larch trees growing at the forest line to the steppe were more susceptible to drought than Mature trees at the same sites. Furthermore| isolated trees growing oil the steppe exhibited lower Psi(m) and recovered to a lower degree from drought overnight than the trees at the forest line. Indications of drought stress in L. sibirica were obtained in two study areas in Mongolia's forest-steppe ecotone: one in the Mountain taiga of the western Khentey in northernmost Mongolia| the other in file forest-steppe at the southern distribution limit of L. sibirica on Mt. Bogd Uul| Southern Khentey. Larix sibirica growing in riverine taiga with contact to file groundwater table was better water-supplied than the larch trees growing at the Forest line to the steppe. Larch trees from the interior of light taiga forests oil north-facing slopes| however| exhibited more critical water relations than the trees at the forest line. Frequent drought stress in mature trees and even more in young larch trees at the forest-steppe borderline suggests that L. sibirica does not have the potential to encroach oil the steppe under the present climate| except in a sequence of exceptionally moist and cool years. A regression of the present borderline between forest and steppe is likely to occur| as average temperatures are increasing everywhere and precipitation is decreasing regionally in Mongolia's taiga forest region. Higher stomatal conductance concomitant to lower Psi(m) in trees of northern-slope forests compared to trees from the forest line to the steppe may be the result of a recent increase in drought intensity that affects better drought-adapted trees at the forest edge less than the trees in the forest interior. We conclude that drought is a key Factor explaining the forest-steppe borderline in northern Mongolia. The proportion of forests within the present vegetation pattern of forests oil north-facing slopes and the grasslands oil south-facing slopes in Mongolia's forest-steppe ecotone is not likely to increase under the present climate| but may decrease with increasing aridity due to global warming.
766,2009,2,4,Water Supply Changes N and P Conservation in a Perennial Grass Leymus chinensis,Changes in precipitation can influence soil water and nutrient availability| and thus affect plant nutrient conservation strategies. Better understanding of how nutrient conservation changes with variations in water availability is crucial for predicting the potential influence of global climate change on plant nutrient-use strategy. Here| green-leaf nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations| N- and P-resorption proficiency (the terminal N and P concentration in senescent leaves| NRP and PRP| respectively)| and N- and P-resorption efficiency (the proportional N and P withdrawn from senescent leaves prior to abscission| NRE and PRE| respectively) of Leymus chinensis (Trin.) Tzvel.| a typical perennial grass species in northern China| were examined along a water supply gradient to explore how plant nutrient conservation responds to water change. Increasing water supply at low levels (< 9000 mL/year) increased NRP| PRP and PRE| but decreased green-leaf N concentration. It did not significantly affect green-leaf P concentration or NRE. By contrast| all N and P conservation indicators were not significantly influenced at high water supply levels (> 9000 mL/year). These results indicated that changes in water availability at low levels could affect leaf-level nutrient characteristics| especially for the species in semiarid ecosystems. Therefore| global changes in precipitation may pose effects on plant nutrient economy| and thus on nutrient cycling in the plant-soil systems. 9936,2009,3,3,Water-rock-CO(2) interactions in saline aquifers aimed for carbon dioxide storage: Experimental and numerical modeling studies of the Rio Bonito Formation (Permian)| southern Brazil,Mineral trapping is one of the safest ways to store CO(2) underground as C will be immobilized in a solid phase. Carbon dioxide will be| therefore| sequestered for geological periods of time| helping to diminish greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate global warming. Although mineral trapping is considered a fairly long process| owing to the existence of kinetic barriers for mineral precipitation| it has been demonstrated both experimentally and by numerical modeling. Here the results of experimental and numerical modeling studies performed in sandstones of the saline aquifer of the Rio Bonito Formation| Parang Basin| are presented. The Rio Bonito Formation consists of paralic sandstones deposited in the intracratonic Parand Basin| southern Brazil| during the Permian (Artinskian-Kungurian). These rocks have the largest potential for CO(2) storage because of their appropriated reservoir quality| depth and proximity to the most important stationary CO(2) sources in Brazil. Here it is suggested that CO(2) can be permanently stored as carbonates as CO(2) reacts with rocks of the Rio Bonito Formation and forms CaCO(3) at temperatures and pressures similar to those encountered for CO(2) storage in geological formations. Results of this work will be useful for studies of partitioning mechanisms for C trapping in CO(2) storage programs. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9713,2009,2,4,Weakening of lower tropospheric temperature gradient between Indian landmass and neighbouring oceans and its impact on Indian monsoon,The study shows that in the scenario of global warming temperature gradient (TG) between Indian landmass and Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal is significantly decreasing in the lower troposphere with maxima around 850 hPa. TG during pre-monsoon (March to May) is reducing at a significant rate of 0.036 degrees/year (Arabian Sea) and 0.030 degrees/year (Bay of Bengal). The above alarming results are based on sixty years (1948-2007) of daily temperature and wind data extracted from CDAS-NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets. TG based on ERA-40 data also indicates a decreasing trend of 0.0229 degrees/year and 0.0397 degrees/year for Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal respectively. As TG is not governed by any type of significant oscillation| there is a possibility of TG tending to zero. It is further observed that the rate of warming over the oceans is more than that over the land which has resulted into the weakening of TG. Pre-monsoon TG has significant correlations with All India Seasonal Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR)| kinetic energy of waves 1 and 2 at 850 hPa| kinetic energy| and stream function at 850 hPa over Indian landmass during monsoon season. Except AISMR| the decreasing trends observed in all the above parameters axe significant. All India rainfall for July and August together shows a significant decreasing trend of 0.995 mm/year. Reducing number of depressions and cyclonic storms and increasing number of break days during monsoon over India are the reflections of the weakening of TG.
985,2009,2,4,Wetlands and global climate change: the role of wetland restoration in a changing world,Global climate change is recognized as a threat to species survival and the health of natural systems. Scientists worldwide are looking at the ecological and hydrological impacts resulting from climate change. Climate change will make future efforts to restore and manage wetlands more complex. Wetland systems are vulnerable to changes in quantity and quality of their water supply| and it is expected that climate change will have a pronounced effect on wetlands through alterations in hydrological regimes with great global variability. Wetland habitat responses to climate change and the implications for restoration will be realized differently on a regional and mega-watershed level| making it important to recognize that specific restoration and management plans will require examination by habitat. Flood-plains| mangroves| seagrasses| saltmarshes| arctic wetlands| peatlands| freshwater marshes and forests are very diverse habitats| with different stressors and hence different management and restoration techniques are needed. The Sundarban (Bangladesh and India)| Mekong river delta (Vietnam)| and southern Ontario (Canada) are examples of major wetland complexes where the effects of climate change are evolving in different ways. Thus| successful long term restoration and management of these systems will hinge on how we choose to respond to the effects of climate change. How will we choose priorities for restoration and research? Will enough water be available to rehabilitate currently damaged| water-starved wetland ecosystems? This is a policy paper originally produced at the request of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands and incorporates opinion| interpretation and scientific-based arguments. 9935,2009,3,3,WHOLE-FARM GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS: A REVIEW WITH APPLICATION TO A PENNSYLVANIA DAIRY FARM,Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere and their potential impact on global climate have become important concerns world-wide. Livestock production systems| such as dairy farms| provide both sinks and sources for GHGs. Typical emissions have been quantified in Europe and synthesized to estimate farm-level GHG emissions. However; fewer data are available in the United States| and little has been done to estimate emissions for our farms. Through an extensive literature review| average GHG flows were quantified for each major farm source and sink including the soil| growing crops| animals| and manure storage. These typical gas exchanges were then combined to estimate farm-level net emissions for a representative| 100-cow dairy farm in Pennsylvania. Emissions from animal facilities primarily consisted of animal respiration (532 Mg CO(2) yr(-1)) and enteric fermentation (16.9 Mg CH(4) yr(-1)) with a total annual emission of 971 A g CO(2) equivalent (CO(2)e) where each unit of CH(4) is equivalent to 25 units of CO(2) in global warming potential. Manure storage emissions included CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O for a total annual emission of 216 Mg CO(2)e with each unit of N(2)O equivalent to 298 units of CO(2). Cropland provided a net flux or sink of -784 to -168 Mg CO(2)e yr(-1) depending upon the amount of manure carbon sequestered in the soil. The estimated whole-farm net annual GHG emission ranged from 2.5 to 5.8 Mg CO(2)e per 500 kg livestock unit or 0.50 to 1.2 kg CO(2)e kg(-1) of milk produced. This review and farm analysis has helped direct modeling efforts by determining the important processes that drive emissions of CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O in dairy production along with expected ranges for these emissions. Such data expand the knowledge base of researchers| farm planners| and policymakers as they work to develop and maintain sustainable farming systems in the United States. 9349,2009,2,4,Why Corals Care About Ocean Acidification: Uncovering the Mechanism,Stony corals build hard skeletons of calcium carbonate (CaCO(3)) by combining calcium with carbonate ions derived| ultimately| from seawater. The concentration of carbonate ions relative to other carbonate species in seawater is rather low| so corals expend energy to raise the pH of seawater sequestered in an isolated| extracellular compartment where crystal growth occurs. This action converts plentiful bicarbonate ions to the carbonate ions required for calcification| allowing corals to produce CaCO(3) about 100 times faster than it could otherwise form. It is this rapid and efficient production of CaCO(3) crystals that enables corals to build coral reefs. Ocean acidification reduces the pH and thus the abundance of carbonate ions in seawater. Corals living in acidified seawater continue to produce CaCO(3) and expend as much energy as their counterparts in normal seawater to raise the pH of the calcifying fluid. However| in acidified seawater| corals are unable to elevate the concentration of carbonate ions to the level required for normal skeletal growth. In several experiments| we found that boosting the energetic status of corals by enhanced heterotrophic feeding or moderate increases in inorganic nutrients helped to offset the negative impact of ocean acidification. However| this built-in defense is unlikely to benefit corals as levels of CO(2) in the atmosphere continue to rise. Most climate models predict that the availability of inorganic nutrients and plankton in the surface waters where corals live will decrease as a consequence of global warming. Thus| corals and coral reefs may be significantly more vulnerable to ocean acidification than previously thought. 9532,2009,3,4,Wilderness Conservation in an Era of Global Warming and Invasive Species: a Case Study from Minnesota's Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness,Climate warming is predicted to cause boreal forests in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW)| Minnesota| to shift to savanna and/or temperate forest in the next century. Invasive earthworms| exotic tree pests| and deer overabundance will magnify the impacts of warmer temperatures. Seldom do we assess potential threats to ecosystem and wilderness integrity in a systematic way and develop policy and management strategies ahead of time to mitigate the situation. Debates on several issues involving wilderness users| managers| and scientists need to be resolved for the BWCAW. These include whether| when| and how to: (I) use fire; (2) restore tree species to wilderness areas lost through human actions (e.g.| logging of white pine (Pinus strobus L.) that occurred before wilderness designation and potential loss of ash species from the introduced pest emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire)); (3) manage the potential overabundance of deer that threaten reproduction of some tree species; (4) facilitate (or prevent) migration of new tree species currently native south of the wilderness; (5) employ local (within wilderness) or regional assisted migration for species that cannot migrate fast enough on their own to keep up with climate change; and (6) manage invasive species. Some of these activities would not be allowed under the wilderness laws of 1964 and 1978| and may be difficult to enact or limited in effectiveness. Major change in forests of the BWCAW is a certainty| and facilitation of a 'graceful transition' to native species rather than exotic species is desirable. 10145,2009,2,4,Will a drier climate result in more lightning?,With recent projections of a warmer climate in the future| one of the key questions is related to the impact of global warming on thunderstorms| and severe weather. Will lightning activity increase in a warmer world? Since the majority of global lightning activity occurs in the tropics| changes in future global lightning activity will depend on changes in the tropical climate. The latest IPCC [intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007] projections show a partial drying out of the tropical landmasses as the global climate gets warmer. This is caused by both changes in rainfall patterns| but also due to increases in evapo-transpiration. We would expect a drier climate to produce fewer thunderstorms| and less lightning. However| experimental and modeling studies have shown that as tropical regions dry in the present climate| they experience greater lightning activity. This paradox may be explained by noting that while drier climate conditions result in fewer thunderstorms and less rainfall| the thunderstorms that do occur are more explosive| resulting in more lightning activity. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10245,2009,2,2,Will future anthropogenic climate change increase the potential distribution of the alien invasive Cuban treefrog (Anura: Hylidae)?,The invasive alien Cuban treefrog Osteopilus sepentrionalis is native to Cuba| the Bahamas and some adjacent islands. It was accidentally introduced to Florida| Puerto Rico and some Hawaiian islands| where it has become a predator and competes with native wildlife. We have used a maximum entropy ecological niche modelling approach to model its potential spread derived from current climate conditions as present in its native geographic distribution and we project that model into future climate change scenarios in order to detect new areas that are potentially threatened. Our model| applying current climatic conditions| suggested high probabilities of occurrence in countries around the Gulf of Mexico. Projections of potential distribution under future anthropogenic global warming scenarios suggest an overall extension of the potential distribution. If the predictive maps are interpreted as depicting the invasive potential of O. septentrionalis| strategies to prevent further invasion should focus on biosafety measures within the areas highlighted. 9807,2009,2,4,Wolbachia infection in Australasian and North American populations of Haematobia irritans (Diptera: Muscidae),Buffalo fly (Haematobia irritans exigua) is a major pest of beef and dairy cattle in northern Australia. Global warming is expected to increase the southern range of buffalo fly. Chemical control is compromised by resistance and may not be feasible in extensive production systems and there is rapidly growing market preference for beef and dairy products produced in low-chemical systems. Wolbachia are vertically transmitted intracellular bacteria that can profoundly influence host reproduction and fitness and are of increasing interest for use in biocontrol programs. To determine whether Australian flies are infected with Wolbachia| buffalo flies were collected from 12 cattle herds around Australia and assayed by standard PCR for the Wolbachia wsp gene. H. i. exigua from Indonesia and horn fly (H. i. irritans) from Canada were also tested. All H. i. exigua samples tested were negative for Wolbachia infection whereas a very strong signal for Wolbachia was obtained from H. i. irritans. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10266,2009,4,2,Wood fuel use in the traditional cooking stoves in the rural floodplain areas of Bangladesh: A socio-environmental perspective,A study was conducted| using a multistage simple random sampling design| to deter-mine the structural characteristics of the traditional cooking stoves| amount of wood fuel consumed in the rural floodplain areas in Bangladesh| and also to figure out the socioeconomic and environmental consequences of wood fuel usage in the traditional cooking stove. The study showed that family size| income| amount cooked and burning hours significantly affected the amount of wood fuel used per family per year. Taking into account different family sizes| the study observed that 4.24 tonne fuelwood were consumed per family per year. The study showed that 42% of families used only biomass fuel| 5% used liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and 53% used kerosene along with biomass fuels. The main source of biomass fuel was homestead forests (40%). It has been figured out that the incomplete combustion of biomass in the traditional cooking stove poses severe epidemiological consequences to human health and contributes to global warming. The study also showed that 83% of the respondents would prefer improved cooking stoves over traditional cooking stoves. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 9539,2009,3,2,ZEITMOP Concept - A Polygeneration System for Municipal Energy Demands,The reduction of greenhouse gases (to which CO(2) contributes over 60%) to stop global warming is now a major priority for governments around the world. One approach| described in this paper| concerns the "clean energy" or "zero-emission" technologies. An original concept of a semi-closed zero emission ion transport membrane oxygen power (ZEITMOP) cycle is being developed. It can be compared to other research initiatives such as clean energy systems and zero-emission natural gas| as a response to the well-recognised challenges. As an answer to the crucial question of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions we propose new zero-emission fuel-fired power plants and boiler houses ("ZEITMOP Boiler & Air Cooler" and "Zero Emission Membrane Smokeless Heating"). Zero-emission co-generation of power and heat allows such plants to be located in densely populated areas close to the consumer. 10922,2010,2,4,"Exotic Animal Diseases" - what we should be prepared for,With the appearance of bluetongue and its expansive establishment in Germany in 2007 and 2008| the term "exotic disease" becomes questionable and its validity has to be reviewed. It might be more advisable to use terms like "emerging- or re-emerging diseases" instead. Foot- and Mouth Disease| lastly seen in Germany in 1988| i. e. more than 20 years ago| could serve as a good example and would appear for many to be an exotic disease should it re-emerge in Germany. Many so-called "exotic animal epidemics"| originating in the tropics and subtropics| have been on the move into supposedly cooler regions for years. Therefore| relations between "global warming" and improved habitat conditions have to be considered at least for vector-borne diseases. This paper reflects on a number of diseases of immediate concern present in European neighbour countries or in the mediterranean neighbourhood. Some of these diseases| classified as potentially relevant in respect to an incursion| are presented in more detail. 10839,2010,2,4,"Floral Primordia Necrosis" Incidence in Mixed Buds of Japanese Pear (Pyrus pyrifolia (Burm.)Nakai var.culta) 'Housui' Grown under Mild Winter Conditions and the Possible Relation with Water Dynamics,The effects of global warming have been observed in several crops as changes in temperature-dependent processes| such as dormancy in perennial fruit trees. We exposed potted Japanese pear 'Housui' plants to 600 chilling hours (CH) below 7.2 degrees C| which is below the theoretical requirement. Such low chilling accumulation was initiated at different times (three treatments) and carried out during four consecutive seasons in order to observe the influence of these factors on the incidence and severity of floral primordia necrosis| water dynamics| phenological| and morphological changes during dormancy in lateral mixed buds| which is comprised of vegetative and reproductive primordia| obtained from the current season's shoots. The submitted amount of chilling temperatures brought about the release of dormancy stage| regardless of seasonal variations in the duration to accumulate 600 CH| but caused a remarkable increase of floral primordia necrosis and a great increase in the number of floral primordia as a consequence of the development of new inflorescences; however| these morphological changes did not increased number of opened flowers because of the progression of floral primordia necrosis. Consecutive seasons of mild winter conditions anticipated the incidence of floral primordia necrosis. The results obtained from magnetic resonance imaging in the buds of plants subjected to low chilling accumulation showed low water mobility and water content especially in scales compared to plants grown under natural conditions. In contrast| increased water mobility and relative content were observed in specific portions of the bud base in treated buds| which was more accentuated in the mixed buds of plants grown for several seasons under mild winter conditions. Moreover| abnormal functional water movement inside dormant mixed buds might result in the necrosis of floral primordia| giving way to the development of new inflorescences. 10876,2010,3,4,(GTI-tcbiomass) Life-Cycle Assessment of the BTO (R)-Process (Biomass-to-Oil) with Combined Heat and Power Generation,A life cycle assessment study of the biomass-to-oil (BTO (R)) process based on the fast ablative pyrolysis of wood chips from forest residues has been performed. The planned system consists of eight pyrolyzers with a throughput of 6 tpd each. The bio-oil will be burnt in eight modified diesel engines with a capacity of 315 kWhel each. The results were compared with a reference system (fossil diesel-fueled CHP). The comparison is made for the production of 1 kWh of electrical oleo; (kWhel) and shows significant differences for global warming potential (GWP(100): -87.7%)| eutrophication potential (ER +23.2%)| acidification potential (AP: -44.6%)| photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP -63.6%)| and ozone depletion potential (ODP: -92.4%). The results of the BTO-CHP-system show lower environmental impact values in all environmental impact categories except for the EP-value| which exceeds the reference clue to the application of bio-oil additives derived from agricultural production. (C) 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog| 29: 193-202| 2010 10870,2010,4,4,2D solar modeling,Understanding the reasons of the cyclic variation of the total solar irradiance is one of the most challenging targets of modern astrophysics. These studies prove to be essential also for a more climatologic issue| associated to the global warming. Any attempt to determine the solar components of this phenomenon must include the effects of the magnetic field| whose strength and shape in the solar interior are far from being completely known. Modeling the presence and the effects of a magnetic field requires a 2D approach| since the assumption of radial symmetry is too limiting for this topic. We present the structure of a 2D evolution code that was purposely designed for this scope; rotation| magnetic field and turbulence can be taken into account. Some preliminary results are presented and commented. 11242,2010,5,4,3-D architecture| depositional patterns and climate triggered sediment fluxes of an alpine alluvial fan (Samedan| Switzerland),The sedimentary architecture of an alpine alluvial fan with a surface of 300|000 m(2) near Samedan| Switzerland| was three-dimensionally investigated using 9 km of ground penetrating radar sections with a penetration depth of 10 m. Radar facies patterns could be very well calibrated to sedimentology and dated horizons due to a 300 m long outcrop section at the foot of the fan. Six major reflectors have been identified and represent first order| fan-wide palaeosurfaces. They are made up of up to 20 cm thick fine-grained deposits partly with initial pedogenetic structures and wood remains which yielded ages between 5670 +/- 60 and 7515 +/- 65 a (14)C BP. Between these surfaces different depositional lobes and specific architectural elements like channels| levees or snouts of debris flows could be identified. All these data were geo-referenced to establish a complete quantitative 3-D time-stratigraphic framework. This allowed us to calculate deposited sediment volumes and sediment fluxes for different time slices between the dated palaeosurfaces. Sediment fluxes show an overall decline during the Holocene which we interpret: as the decling sediment production in the catchment area a function of the paraglacial cycle. Since the middle Atlantic period| the aggradation of the fan almost ceased and climate perturbations are no longer reflected in the sedimentary record since then. Within the aggradation period| distinct peaks of high sediment fluxes could be correlated with known periods of glacier retreats in the Swiss Alps| which points to a high sensitivity of the system to climate changes. The results of our study give valuable new insights into thresholds of activity and quiescence of an alpine catchment-fan system and its stage in the course of a paraglacial cycle. Although very important for the understanding of such dynamic systems under global warming scenarios and geo-risk assessment| such data sets are rarely available. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10450,2010,3,3,A 'rare biosphere' microorganism contributes to sulfate reduction in a peatland,Methane emission from peatlands contributes substantially to global warming but is significantly reduced by sulfate reduction| which is fuelled by globally increasing aerial sulfur pollution. However| the biology behind sulfate reduction in terrestrial ecosystems is not well understood and the key players for this process as well as their abundance remained unidentified. Comparative 16S rRNA gene stable isotope probing (SIP) in the presence and absence of sulfate indicated that a Desulfosporosinus species| which constitutes only 0.006% of the total microbial community 16S rRNA genes| is an important sulfate reducer in a long-term experimental peatland field site. Parallel SIP using dsrAB (encoding subunit A and B of the dissimilatory (bi) sulfite reductase) identified no additional sulfate reducers under the conditions tested. For the identified Desulfosporosinus species a high cell-specific sulfate reduction rate of up to 341 fmol SO(4)(2-) cell(-1) day(-1) was estimated. Thus| the small Desulfosporosinus population has the potential to reduce sulfate in situ at a rate of 4.0-36.8 nmol (g soil w. wt.)(-1) day(-1)| sufficient to account for a considerable part of sulfate reduction in the peat soil. Modeling of sulfate diffusion to such highly active cells identified no limitation in sulfate supply even at bulk concentrations as low as 10 mu M. Collectively| these data show that the identified Desulfosporosinus species| despite being a member of the 'rare biosphere'| contributes to an important biogeochemical process that diverts the carbon flow in peatlands from methane to CO(2) and| thus| alters their contribution to global warming. The ISME Journal advance online publication| 10 June 2010; doi: 10.1038/ismej.2010.75 10587,2010,2,4,A 23-YEAR ASSESSMENT OF VEGETATION COMPOSITION AND CHANGE IN THE ADIRONDACK ALPINE ZONE| NEW YORK STATE,The Adirondack Mountains of New York State hold some of the southernmost communities of alpine vegetation in the eastern United States. Containing the greatest concentration of rare and endangered species in New York State| this similar to 12|000-year-old ecosystem is important to understanding the ecological history of northeastern North America. In order to monitor floristic and vegetational shifts over time| 11 permanent transects were established in 1984 on four summits (Wright| Algonquin| Boundary| and Iroquois) of the MacIntyre Range in the Adirondack High Peaks region. Using the point-intercept method| all 11 transects were sampled in 1984| 1994| 2002| and 2007. Vegetation composition changed significantly over the 23-year period| with an overall decrease in bryophytes/lichens and an increase in vascular plants| indicating that vascular plants were replacing bryophytes| particularly in areas not disturbed by hikers. Community similarity was high among all transects| and increased with time for vascular plants as they became more abundant| indicating a successional convergence. Compositional shifts may also reflect effects of global warming and atmospheric deposition on alpine plant communities. 10741,2010,2,4,A 250-year index of first flowering dates and its response to temperature changes,Widespread concerns about global biodiversity loss have led to a growing demand for indices of biodiversity status. Today| climate change is among the most serious threats to global biodiversity. Although many studies have revealed phenological responses to climate change| no long-term community-level indices have been developed. We derived a 250-year index of first flowering dates for 405 plant species in the UK for assessing the impact of climate change on plant communities. The estimated community-level index in the most recent 25 years was 2.2-12.7 days earlier than any other consecutive 25-year period since 1760. The index was closely correlated with February-April mean Central England Temperature| with flowering 5.0 days earlier for every 1 degrees C increase in temperature. The index was relatively sensitive to the number of species| not records per species| included in the model. Our results demonstrate how multi-species| multiple-site phenological events can be integrated to obtain indices showing trends for each species and across species. This index should play an important role in monitoring the impact of climate change on biodiversity. Furthermore| this approach can be extended to incorporate data from other taxa and countries for evaluating cross-taxa and cross-country phenological responses to climate change. 10664,2010,3,3,A carbon sequestration strategy involving temperate fruit crops in the trans-Himalayan region,A current major concern is increasing levels of atmospheric CO(2) which may be responsible for global warming or climate change. Fruit tree orchards have received attention in recent years by virtue of their potential to act as carbon pools. The trans-Himalayan valley (i.e.| the Nubra Valley) at an altitude of 3|048 m| is covered by > 60|000 temperate fruit trees. The focus of this paper is on the potential of these fruit-yielding trees as a means of carbon sequestration in the Nubra Valley. The valley produces approx. 4|650 metric tonnes (MT) of apricot| apple| walnut| mulberry| grape| and plum fruit. It was observed that the total biomass of the temperate fruit trees (i.e.| apricot| apple| and walnut) in the area surveyed was 40|000 MT dry weight (DW). Thus| 22|300 MT of carbon has been sequestered by these fruit species. This study revealed that the cultivation of temperate fruit crops species such as apricot| apple| and walnut could be exploited more efficiently for carbon sequestration which subsequently helps in mitigating global CO(2) levels and restoring degraded land in these cold| arid areas by improving soil organic carbon (SOC) contents. These results concluded| in part| that growing biomass to sequester carbon is a beneficial grow-and-store process for sustainable development. 10442,2010,3,4,A case study of the open-loop recycling of mixed plastic waste for use in a sports-field drainage system,The management of plastic wastes is important owing to the high levels of embodied fossil fuel energy they contain. Although the environmental benefits of closed-loop recycling of plastics have been established through a number of life cycle studies| the benefits of open-loop recycling of plastics have not been examined for many substituted materials. This paper compares two equivalent sports-field drainage systems| one based on conventional sand and aggregate drainage materials| the other incorporating a novel drainage material produced from mixed plastics waste. The scope is confined to an analysis of primary energy consumption and global warming potential. It was found that the novel drainage system had lower global warming potential and primary energy consumption than the conventional system. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses of electricity mix and transportation distance to installation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11249,2010,2,4,A checklist of the fish fauna of Greenland waters,Although the Greenland fish fauna has been studied for more than 200 years| new species continue to be discovered. We here take the opportunity of the International Polar Year 2007-08 (IPY) to present an updated check-list of the fishes of Greenland and discuss whether the growing diversity can be explained by global warming. A total of 269 species from 80 families are known from the Greenland Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)| based on published literature and specimens in museum collections. Since the latest publication covering all known Greenland fishes [ Nielsen & Bertelsen 1992]| 57 species have been added. Nineteen of these (Harriotta raleighana| Centroscymnus coelolepis| Bathytroctes microlepis| Einara edentula| Ceratoscopelus maderensis| Argyropelecus gigas| Maurolicus muelleri| Polyipnus asteroides| Nansenia oblita| Melanostomias bartonbeani| Polymetme corythaeola| Coryphaenoides mediterraneus| Merlangius merlangus| Guttigadus latifrons| Entelurus aequoreus| Helicolenus dactylopterus| Epigonus telescopus| Lophius piscatorius| Linophryne bicornis) are reported here for the first time. Twenty-nine of the species were added on the basis of taxonomic revisions and/or identification of specimens caught before 1992| whereas 28 species have been caught in Greenland waters for the first time since 1992. Ten species were new to science described since 1992. Only five of the added species are Arctic - i.e. mainly caught north of the Davis and Denmark Straits. Of the 28 species caught after 1992| five species ( Maurolicus muelleri| Merlangius merlangus| Helicolenus dactylopterus| Lophius piscatorius| Entelurus aequoreus) from the southern regions ( Atlantic) are mainly from shallow waters (< 400 m) and their arrival is likely to be a result of increasing temperatures. The explanation of the many new records of deep-water fishes is most likely increasing fishing efforts down to depths of 1500 m. The deep waters off Greenland (> 1500 m)| however| remain almost unstudied. 11278,2010,3,4,A closed-loop logistic model with a spanning-tree based genetic algorithm,Due to the problem of global warming| the green supply chain management| in particular| closed-loop logistics| has drawn the attention of researchers. Although there were logistics models that were examined in the literatures| most of them were case based and not in a closed-loop. Therefore| they lacked generality and could not serve the purposes of recycling| reuse and recovery required in a green supply chain. In this study| the integration of forward and reverse logistics was investigated| and a generalized closed-loop model for the logistics planning was proposed by formulating a cyclic logistics network problem into an integer linear programming model. Moreover| the decisions for selecting the places of manufactories| distribution centers| and dismantlers with the respective operation units were supported with the minimum cost. A revised spanning-tree based genetic algorithm was also developed by using determinant encoding representation for solving this NP model. Numerical experiments were presented| and the results showed that the proposed model and algorithms were able to support the logistic decisions in a closed-loop supply chain efficiently and accurately. Statement of scope and purposes This study concerns with operations of 3R in the green supply chain logistics and the location selection optimization. Based on 'cradle to cradle' principle of a green product| a "closed-loop" structure of a network was proposed in order to integrate the environmental issues into a traditional logistic system. Due to NP-hard nature of the model| a Genetic Algorithm| which is based on spanning tree structure was developed. Test problems from the small size for accuracy to the large scale for efficiency have been demonstrated with comparison. The promising results have shown the applicability of the proposed model with the solution procedure. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11220,2010,5,4,A combined oxygen and silicon diatom isotope record of Late Quaternary change in Lake El'gygytgyn| North East Siberia,Determining the response of sites within the Arctic Circle to long-term climatic change remains an essential pre-requisite for assessing the susceptibility of these regions to future global warming and Arctic amplification. To date| existing records from North East Russia have demonstrated significant spatial variability across the region during the late Quaternary. Here we present diatom delta(18)O and delta(30)Si data from Lake El'gygytgyn| Russia| and suggest environmental changes that would have impacted across West Beringia from the Last Glacial Maximum to the modern day. In combination with other records| the results raise the potential for climatic teleconnections to exist between the region and sites in the North Atlantic. The presence of a series of 2-3 parts per thousand decreases in delta(18)O(diatom) during both the Last Glacial and the Holocene indicates the sensitivity of the region to perturbations in the global climate system. Evidence of an unusually long Holocene thermal maximum from 11.4 ka BP to 7.6 ka BP is followed by a cooling trend through the remainder of the Holocene in response to changes in solar insolation. This is culminated over the last 900 years by a significant decrease in delta(18)O(diatom) of 2.3 parts per thousand| which may be related to a strengthening and easterly shift of the Aleutian Low in addition to possible changes in precipitation seasonality. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10711,2010,3,3,A Comparison of Diesel and Biodiesel Emissions Using Dimethyl Carbonate as an Oxygenated Additive,Diesel vehicles account for the majority of new vehicles sales in Europe. This is due to inherent fuel efficiency and high reliability. Global warming concerns have seen demand for renewable alternatives to fossil diesel with low carbon dioxide (CO(2)) producing emissions. Oxygenated biodiesel fuels such as rapeseed methyl ester (RME) can be utilized in an unmodified conventional diesel engine. RME combustion produces low emissions of unburnt total hydrocarbons (THCs)| carbon monoxide (CO)| and particulate matter (PM). This is due in part to fuel-born oxygen content (10.8% wt). This study examines the effect of adding fuel-born oxygen in the form of dimethyl carbonate (DMC) (a nontoxic potentially bioderived 53.3% wt oxygenated additive) to conventional pump diesel. It was found that nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) increased and that THCs| CO| and PM were reduced by up to 50% with a 96% diesel| 4% DMC blend. Interestingly 2% DMC in diesel can generate comparable particulate| THCs and CO emissions to RME combustion| at just 1.1% wt oxygen. A DMC blend may also have potential in the reduction of as yet unregulated carcinogenic emissions such as benzene and 1|3-butadiene. 10764,2010,3,3,A detailed greenhouse gas budget for palm oil production,We have evaluated the global warming impact of palm oil production in a model that simulates the operations of a typical palm oil mill that processes fruit from a nucleus estate and outgrowers. It estimates carbon sequestration in the crop and in mill products and by-products| and balances this against the major sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs)| all converted to carbon dioxide equivalents (CO(2)-e) over the 25-year lifespan of the crop. The model shows that most carbon sequestration occurs in the standing crop| with smaller amounts in mill products and by-products. Land-use conversion plays a dominant role in the GHG budget| with planting of oil palm after logged forest or rubber leading to a net loss of carbon| and to a net gain following grassland. In the default oil-palm-to-oil-palm case the carbon lost from cleared palms is balanced by sequestration in the current crop. Methane from mill effluent and nitrous oxide from N fertilizers are the next most important emission sources. The default replant case gives net emissions of 0.86t CO(2)-e per t crude palm oil| but these can be reduced to very low values| mainly through conversion of methane and surplus fuel in the mill to energy. 10691,2010,3,2,A feasibility study of CO(2) capture from flue gas by a facilitated transport membrane,Carbon dioxide accounts for about 80% of all greenhouse gases (GHG) and thus becomes the major source responsible for global warming which is considered as the greatest environmental challenge the world is facing. The efforts to control the GHG emissions include the recovery of CO(2) from flue gas. In this work| a feasibility analysis has been carried out with an in-house membrane program interfaced within process simulation program (AspenHysys) to investigate the influence of process parameters on the energy demand and flue gas processing cost. A novel CO(2)-selective membrane with the facilitated transport mechanism has been employed to capture CO(2) from the flue gas mixtures. The results show that a membrane process using the facilitated transport membrane is feasible| even for low CO(2) concentration (10%) in flue gas| compared to amine absorption in terms of energy requirement and it is possible to achieve more than 90% CO(2) recovery and with a purity in the permeate above 90% CO(2). Different process configurations are presented showing the effect of process conditions on the energy demand and gas processing cost to obtain 90% recovery and 90% purity. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10749,2010,3,4,A Force Field for 3|3|3-Fluoro-1-propenes| Including HFO-1234yf,The European Union (EU) legislation 2006/40/EC bans from January 2011 the cooperative marketing of new car types that use refrigerants in their heating| ventilation| and air conditioning (HVAC) systems with global warming potentials (GWP) higher than 150 Thus| the phase-out of the presently used tetrafluoroethane refrigerant R134a necessitates the adoption of alternative refrigerants. Fluoropropenes such as 2|3|3|3-tetrafluoro-1-propene (HFO-1234yf) are currently regarded as promising low GWP refrigerants| but the lack of experimental data on their thermophysical properties hampers independent studies on their performance in HVAC systems or in other technical applications In principle| molecular modeling can be used to predict the relevant properties of refrigerants| but adequate intermolecular potential functions ("force fields") arc lacking for fluoropropenes. Thus| we developed a transferable force field for fluoropropenes composed of CF(3)(-)| -CF=| -CH=| CF(2)=| and CH(2)= groups and applied the force field to study 3|3|3 trifluoro-1-propene (HFO-1243zf)| 2|3|3|3-tetrafluoro-1-propene (HFO-1234yf)| and hexafluoro-1-propene (HFO-1216) We performed Gibbs ensemble simulations on these three fluoropropenes to compute the vapor pressure| saturated densities| and heats of vaporization. In addition| molecular dynamics simulations were conducted to provide predictions for the density| thermal expansivity| isobaric heat capacity| and transport properties of liquid HFO-1234yf in the temperature range from 263.15 to 310 K and pressures up to 2 MPa. Agreement between simulation results and experimental data and/or correlations (when available) was good| thereby validating the predictive ability of the force field 662,2010,3,4,A freshwater biodiversity hotspot under pressure - assessing threats and identifying conservation needs for ancient Lake Ohrid,Immediate conservation measures for world-wide freshwater resources are of eminent importance. This is particularly true for so-called ancient lakes. While these lakes are famous for being evolutionary theatres| often displaying an extraordinarily high degree of biodiversity and endemism| in many cases these biota are also experiencing extreme anthropogenic impact. Lake Ohrid| a major European biodiversity hotspot situated in a trans-frontier setting on the Balkans| is a prime example for a lake with a magnitude of narrow range endemic taxa that are under increasing anthropogenic pressure. Unfortunately| evidence for a "creeping biodiversity crisis" has accumulated over the last decades| and major socio-political changes have gone along with human-mediated environmental changes. Based on field surveys| monitoring data| published records| and expert interviews| we aimed to (1) assess threats to Lake Ohrids' (endemic) biodiversity| (2) summarize existing conservation activities and strategies| and (3) outline future conservation needs for Lake Ohrid. We compiled threats to both specific taxa (and in cases to particular species) as well as to the lake ecosystems itself. Major conservation concerns identified for Lake Ohrid are: (1) watershed impacts| (2) agriculture and forestry| (3) tourism and population growth| (4) non-indigenous species| (5) habitat alteration or loss| (6) unsustainable exploitation of fisheries| and (7) global climate change. Among the major (well-known) threats with high impact are nutrient input (particularly of phosphorus)| habitat conversion and silt load. Other threats are potentially of high impact but less well known. Such threats include pollution with hazardous substances (from sources such as mines| former industries| agriculture) or climate change. We review and discuss institutional responsibilities| environmental monitoring and ecosystem management| existing parks and reserves| biodiversity and species measures| international conservation activities| and ongoing research on conservation and raising of public awareness. Following this summary| we evaluate the status quo and future of Lake Ohrid and its biota. A comprehensive conservation strategy should include measures that result in an immediate reduction of nutrient input| particularly with phosphorus| in order to slow down the ongoing eutrophication process. The existing watershed management should become more effective. Implementation and particularly with a view to the enforcement of national laws should be enhanced. Increased research on the lakes' limnology| biodiversity| and conservation management practices are necessary. The latter research should identify conservation priorities. Public awareness should be enhanced. Facing these parallel needs to protect the unique biodiversity of Lake Ohrid| we suggest urging (a) implementation and enforcement of the General Management Plan that would ensure long-term integrated and sustainable use of the lake and its watershed| (b) scientific studies on ecology| biodiversity and effects of human impact| (c) the establishment of Core Conservation areas (CCA)| including underwater reserves| and (d) Coastal Zone Management (CZM) areas that would constitute buffer zones for the CCAs around the lake. Given the number of identified threats| it is clear that only concerted international action can stop or at least slow down further degradation of Lake Ohrid and the creeping biodiversity crisis already evident. All conservation activities should| among others| ultimately lead to a trans-boundary major conservation area of the Ohrid-Prespa region that would allow long-term integration of both humans and nature. 10733,2010,2,4,A genetic resource for early-morning flowering trait of wild rice Oryza officinalis to mitigate high temperature-induced spikelet sterility at anthesis,Background and Aims High temperatures over 32-36 degrees C at anthesis induce spikelet sterility in rice. The use of a germplasm with an early-morning flowering (EMF) trait has been hypothesized as a way of avoiding this problem. In this study| the effect of the EMF trait on avoiding high temperature-induced sterility at anthesis by flowering at a cooler temperature in the early morning was evaluated. Methods The EMF trait was introgressed from wild rice (Oryza officinalis) into the rice cultivar 'Koshihikari' (O. saliva). First| spikelets of the EMF line and Koshihikari were subjected to rising temperatures during the daytime in the greenhouse to test for differences in spikelet sterility. Secondly| spikelets of both plants were exposed to 26| 34 and 38 degrees C at anthesis and to 38 degrees C beginning at least 1 h after flowering| in the growth chambers at 70% relative humidity| to test for differences in tolerance to high temperatures. Key Results Spikelets of the EMF line started and completed flowering a few hours earlier than Koshihikari. In a greenhouse experiment| spikelets of Koshihikari opened after the air temperature reached 35 degrees C| but those of the EMF line could open at cooler temperatures. Under these conditions| spikelet sterility significantly increased in Koshihikari| but did not in the EMF line. The number of sterile spikelets increased as their flowering time was delayed in Koshihikari. Furthermore| the chamber experiments revealed that 60% of the spikelets from both lines were sterile when exposed to 38 degrees C at anthesis| indicating that tolerance of high temperature was similar in both genotypes. Conclusions Reduced sterility in the EMF line subjected to rising temperatures at anthesis in the greenhouse was attributed to an earlier flowering time compared with Koshihikari. The EMF trait of wild rice is effective in mitigating anticipated yield loss due to global warming by escaping high-temperature stress at anthesis during the daytime. 494,2010,5,4,A global perspective on Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene climate change,While the abrupt climate events of the last deglaciation are well defined in ice core records from the polar regions of both hemispheres| their manifestation elsewhere is less well constrained. Here we compile 104 high-resolution paleoclimate records to characterize the timing and spatial pattern of climate change during the last deglaciation. This compilation indicates relatively concurrent timing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; peak glacial conditions) and the Altithermal (peak interglacial conditions) in the Northern (22.1 +/- 4.3 ka and 8.0 +/- 32 ka) and Southern (22.3 +/- 3.6 ka and 7.4 +/- 3.7 ka) Hemispheres| suggesting the hemispheres were synchronized by greenhouse gases| local insolation| and/or Northern Hemisphere induced ocean circulation changes. The magnitude of the glacial interglacial temperature change increases with latitude| reflecting the polar amplification of climate change| with a likely minimum global mean cooling of similar to -4.9 degrees C during the LGM relative to the Altithermal. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of 71 records spanning 19-11 ka indicates that two modes explain 72% of deglacial climate variability. EOF1 (61% of variance) shows a globally near-uniform pattern| with its principal component (PC1) strongly correlated with changes in atmospheric CO(2). EOF2 (11% of variance) exhibits a bipolar seesaw pattern between the hemispheres| with its principal component (PC2) resembling changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength. EOF analysis of 90 records from 15 to 11 ka indicates that northern and southern modes of climate variability characterize the Younger Dryas-Bolling/Allerod interval. These modes dominate at the higher latitudes of each hemisphere and exhibit a complex interaction in the tropics. The magnitude of the Younger Dryas climate anomaly (cooler/drier) increases with latitude in the Northern Hemisphere| with an opposite pattern (warmer/wetter) in the Southern Hemisphere reflecting a general bipolar seesaw climate response. Global mean temperature decreased by similar to 0.6 degrees C during the Younger Dryas. Therefore| our analysis supports the paradigm that while the Younger Dryas was a period of global climate change| it was not a major global cooling event but rather a manifestation of the bipolar seesaw driven by a reduction in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10390,2010,2,4,A half-century of changes in China's lakes: Global warming or human influence?,Lake size is sensitive to both climate change and human activities| and therefore serves as an excellent indicator to assess environmental changes. Using a large volume of various datasets| we provide a first complete picture of changes in China's lakes between 1960s-1980s and 2005-2006. Dramatic changes are found in both lake number and lake size; of these| 243 lakes vanished mainly in the northern provinces (and autonomous regions) and also in some southern provinces while 60 new lakes appeared mainly on the Tibetan Plateau and neighboring provinces. Limited evidence suggested that these geographically unbalanced changes might be associated primarily with climate change in North China and human activities in South China| yet targeted regional studies are required to confirm this preliminary observation. Citation: Ma| R.| H. Duan| C. Hu| X. Feng| A. Li| W. Ju| J. Jiang| and G. Yang (2010)| A half-century of changes in China's lakes: Global warming or human influence?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L24106| doi:10.1029/2010GL045514. 460,2010,5,4,A high resolution and continuous isotopic speleothem record of paleoclimate and paleoenvironment from 90 to 53 ka from Pinnacle Point on the south coast of South Africa,Coastal South Africa draws interdisciplinary interests due to the co-occurrence of a rich record for early human behavioral modernity| hyper-diverse vegetation with very high endemism (the Cape Floral Region)| and globally influential oceanic and climate systems. High resolution and continuous climate and environmental records are needed to provide the context for the evolution of behavioral modernity and this diverse flora. Here we present the first such record for climate and environmental change from 90 000 to 53 000 years ago from the southern Cape coast. This important time span covers a burst of expression of several indicators of human behavioral modernity| as well as several key cycles in global climate change. Our research location is ideally placed near the location of several critical archaeological sites| near the boundary of the winter and summer rainfall regimes| and close to isotopically distinct floral zones. We used isotopic analysis of precisely dated speleothems to document shifting vegetation and rainfall| and show that the presence of winter rain and C3 grasses waxes and wanes in response to Southern Hemisphere shifts in SSTs and global temperature. When proxies of global temperatures indicate warmer conditions| delta(18)O and delta(13)C indicate more winter rain and more C3 grasses| respectively| and vice versa. This record displays abrupt and short-term changes previously undocumented. It is often argued that the Cape Floral Region partially owes its high diversity to relative climatic stability. Our record shows isotopic variability that at least matches that displayed in the Levantine Mediterranean system| so climatic stability may not have characterized the south coast. One short-lived phase of human technological innovation (the Still Bay) associated with early evidence for behavioral modernity occurs synchronous with an abrupt environmental perturbation. Early modern humans in this region confronted a variable climate and adapted quickly in a manner similar to behaviorally modern humans. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 462,2010,5,4,A Holocene sequence of vegetation change at Lake Eteza| coastal KwaZulu-Natal| South Africa,Palynological and sedimentological data from a core extracted from Lake Eteza shed new light on the Holocene vegetation and climate history in KwaZulu-Natal and can be linked to regional and global climate change. A 2072 cm core with nineteen radiocarbon dates and chronological extrapolation to the bottom of the sequence suggests that sedimentation started ca. 10200 cal yrs BP. Between ca. 10200 and 6800 cal yrs BP pollen indicators point to a change from intermediately humid conditions to comparatively drier grassy environments. This is in good agreement with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) fluctuations from a core in the Mozambique Channel which influence precipitation in coastal KwaZulu-Natal| and the beginning of the Holocene Thermal Maximum ca. 10500 cal yrs BP. The lower section of the core corresponds to gradually increasing Holocene sea levels along the coast and development of freshwater or estuarine conditions at Lake Eteza. The middle Holocene (ca. 6800-3600 cal yrs BP)| when the sea level reached its highest stand and SST peak| indicate humid climatic conditions that favoured an increase of forest trees| e.g. Podocarpus| and undergrowth plants like Issoglossa. As a consequence of higher precipitation and increase of the water table| conditions were favourable for the spread of mangrove| swamp and possibly riverine forest. During the late Holocene after ca. 3600 cal yrs BP a decrease of Podocarpus and other trees as well as an increase of Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae| grasses and Phoenix coincide with a return to lower sea levels and drier conditions. The decrease of all trees including Phoenix at ca. 700 cal yrs BP| accompanied by rapid sedimentation rates| possibly reflect forest clearing and upland erosion induced by activities of Iron Age settlers. A dry period at the globally recognized onset of the Little Ice Age might have contributed to these changes. Late Iron Age settlers have probably already introduced Zea mays| which was detected in the profile since ca. 210 BP. The appearance of neophytes like Pinus| Casuarina and pollen of Ambrosia-type in the youngest sediments indicates increased disturbance of European settlements and land use since ca. 100 cal yrs BP. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11159,2010,2,4,A last-saturation diagnosis of subtropical water vapor response to global warming,We used boreal winter output from an IPCC AR4 GCM simulation to drive an atmospheric tracer transport model with water vapor last saturation tracers over the northern hemisphere in order to identify processes that contribute to the projected increase in specific humidity of the subtropical relative humidity minimum. Most of the increase in specific humidity at the relative humidity minimum can be attributed to last saturation within what will be a warmer free troposphere. The water vapor content of the relative humidity minimum is projected to increase in the 21st century primarily as a function of increased last saturation temperatures in the tropical lower troposphere| effectively yielding more water vapor via poleward transport. The increase in specific humidity is to a degree kept in check by a poleward and upward shift of baroclinic instability and saturation patterns that effectively yield drier air to the RH minimum via isentropic transport. Citation: Hurley| J. V.| and J. Galewsky (2010)| A last-saturation diagnosis of subtropical water vapor response to global warming| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L06702| doi: 10.1029/2009GL042316. 11273,2010,3,4,A life cycle based environmental impacts assessment of construction materials used in road construction,Industrial byproducts such as coal fly ash| coal bottom ash| and recycled concrete pavement (RCP) are being used in considerable amounts as a full or partial replacement of natural aggregates. Studies comparing road construction byproduct materials with natural aggregates are limited. In the present study| a comparison of these byproducts with natural aggregates was carried out with respect to cost| environmental pollutants generated| and energy consumption. Pollutant emission data were aggregated to express results in terms of global warming potential (GWP). acidification potential and various toxicity potentials. For assessment of toxicity potentials| all the toxicities were represented with respect to 1|4 dichlorobenzene. Mixed results were found from the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and no single material performed superiorly in all categories. Fly ash and bottom ash were found attractive in cost| GWP| and acidification potential categories. RCP had higher GWP and acidification potential compared to natural aggregates. In toxicity categories| in some cases fly ash and bottom ash had higher; and RCP| in all cases| had Much lower toxicity compared to natural aggregates. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10493,2010,2,3,A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents,The recent overall Northern Hemisphere warming was accompanied by several severe northern continental winters| as for example| extremely cold winter 2005-2006 in Europe and northern Asia. Here we show that anomalous decrease of wintertime sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara (B-K) seas could bring about extreme cold events like winter 2005-2006. Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower-troposphere heating over the B-K seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anticyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a continental-scale winter cooling reaching -1.5 degrees C| with more than 3 times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe. Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it| being in qualitative agreement with the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation realignment. Furthermore| our results suggest that high-latitude atmospheric circulation response to the B-K sea ice decrease is highly nonlinear and characterized by transition from anomalous cyclonic circulation to anticyclonic one and then back again to cyclonic type of circulation as the B-K sea ice concentration gradually reduces from 100% to ice free conditions. We present a conceptual model that may explain the nonlinear local atmospheric response in the B-K seas region by counter play between convection over the surface heat source and baroclinic effect due to modified temperature gradients in the vicinity of the heating area. 587,2010,2,4,A low-level jet along the Benguela coast| an integral part of the Benguela current ecosystem,The Benguela Current Ecosystem of Southern Africa is the strongest wind-driven coastal upwelling system known. This is one of the most productive ocean areas in the world| extremely rich in fishery resources with a total catch in excess of one million tons per annum. Marine life off the coast relies heavily on the nutrient-rich upwellings of the cold Benguela current. Warming events occur along this coast in association with many El Nios. These tremendously disrupt the coastal ecosystem| reducing productivity and devastating the anchovy and sardine fisheries. This article demonstrates for the first time the existence of a low-level atmospheric jet along the Benguela Coast of the southeastern Atlantic. Blowing parallel to the coast| this jet drives the coastal upwelling system and is part of a mechanism that links Pacific El Nio events to Southern Africa. The existence of such a jet has tremendous implications for the Benguela current and its response to climatic variability and change because a positive feedback exists between the intensity of this jet and the intensity of coastal upwelling. This may enhance the response of the Benguela Current Ecosystem to climatic variability| making it particularly susceptible to the impacts of global climate change. 453,2010,5,4,A multi-locus phylogeny of Nectogalini shrews and influences of the paleoclimate on speciation and evolution,Nectogaline shrews are a major component of the small mammalian fauna of Europe and Asia| and are notable for their diverse ecology| including utilization of aquatic habitats. So far| molecular phylogenetic analyses including nectogaline species have been unable to infer a well-resolved| well-supported phylogeny| thus limiting the power of comparative evolutionary and ecological analyses of the group. Here| we employ Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of eight mitochondrial and three nuclear genes to infer the phylogenetic relationships of nectogaline shrews. We subsequently use this phylogeny to assess the genetic diversity within the genus Episoriculus| and determine whether adaptation to aquatic habitats evolved independently multiple times. Moreover| we both analyze the fossil record and employ Bayesian relaxed clock divergence dating analyses of DNA to assess the impact of historical global climate change on the biogeography of Nectogalini. We infer strong support for the polyphyly of the genus Episoriculus. We also find strong evidence that the ability to heavily utilize aquatic habitats evolved independently in both Neomys and Chimarrogale + Nectogale lineages. Our Bayesian molecular divergence analysis suggests that the early history of Nectogalini is characterized by a rapid radiation at the Miocene/Pliocene boundary| thus potentially explaining the lack of resolution at the base of the tree. Finally| we find evidence that nectogalines once inhabited northern latitudes| but the global cooling and desiccating events at the Miocene/Pliocene and Pliocene/Pleistocene boundaries and Pleistocene glaciation resulted in the migration of most Nectogalini lineages to their present day southern distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 11132,2010,4,4,A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data| and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance| the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales| and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically| the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI)| but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance| it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics| located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions| only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an increase in drought severity associated with higher water demand as a result of evapotranspiration. Relative to the sc-PDSI| the SPEI has the advantage of being multiscalar. which is crucial for drought analysis and monitoring. 384,2010,3,4,A multivariate causality test of carbon dioxide emissions| energy consumption and economic growth in China,This paper uses multivariate co-integration Granger causality tests to investigate the correlations between carbon dioxide emissions| energy consumption and economic growth in China. Some researchers have argued that the adoption of a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption as a long term policy goal will result in a closed-form relationship| to the detriment of the economy. Therefore| a perspective that can make allowances for the fact that the exclusive pursuit of economic growth will increase energy consumption and CO(2) emissions is required; to the extent that such growth will have adverse effects with regard to global climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11103,2010,5,4,A nearly 8000 year fire history from an Arizona/Sonora borderland cienega,Sediment cores from the San Bernardino Cienega near Douglas| Arizona and Agua Prieta| Sonora. Mexico were examined to reconstruct the fire history of this region and inform restoration efforts. A nearly 8000 year vegetation and fire history record was reconstructed from these sediments using fossil pollen and charcoal. Results from the fire reconstruction show an increase in fire activity coincident with the onset of ENSO| and an increase in fire frequency during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Preliminary pollen data show taxa that reflect winter-dominated precipitation (Ephedra and Artemisia) correspond to times of greater fire activity. These fire data shed light on the long-term history of fire in desert environments that may be helpful in understanding what fire regimes may be expected with global warming and also how to best incorporate fire into management plans. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 545,2010,3,4,A Net-Present Value Analysis for a Wind Turbine Purchase at a Small US College,Wind power is becoming an increasingly attractive method of electric power generation due to concerns with global climate change| increasing uncertainty of future oil supplies| and energy security. While most large-scale wind turbines are part of wind farms| which help states meet state renewable energy standards| several colleges and universities in the United States have purchased wind turbines for financial and educational purposes. This paper gives details of a cost-benefit analysis completed for a small liberal arts college in Illinois| Principia College| which is considering buying a single large-scale turbine. The process set forth here can easily be adapted to any college| university| or school. It is found that the project has a positive net present value for both a 20-year scenario and a 30-year scenario. Assuming the project did not receive any grants| Principia College would need to have an annual real return rate of about 6% on its initial investment to gain the same economic benefits. 10823,2010,4,4,A network model for electrical transport in sea ice,Monitoring the thickness of sea ice is an important tool in assessing the impact of global warming on Earth's polar regions| and most methods of measuring ice thickness depend on detailed knowledge of its electrical properties. We develop a network model for the electrical conductivity of sea ice| which incorporates statistical measurements of the brine microstructure. The numerical simulations are in close agreement with direct measurements we made in Antarctica on the vertical conductivity of first year sea ice. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 411,2010,2,4,A new environment for aerobic anoxygenic phototrophic bacteria: biological soil crusts,P>Phototrophic microorganisms are critical to the carbon cycling and productivity of biological soil crusts| which enhance water content| nutrient relations and mechanical stability of arid soils. Only oxygen-producing phototrophs| including cyanobacteria and algae| are known from soil crusts| but Earth's second major branch of photosynthetic organisms| the evolutionarily earlier anoxygenic phototrophs| is unreported. We announce the discovery of aerobic anoxygenic phototrophs in three Canadian soil crust communities. We found in a culture-based study that they comprised 0.1-5.9% of the cultivable bacterial community in moss-| lichen- and cyanobacteria-dominated crust from sand dunes and sandy soils. Comparable in density to aerobic phototrophs in other habitats| the bacteriochlorophyll a-possessing pink and orange isolates were related to species of Methylobacterium (99.0-99.5%)| Belnapia (97.4-98.8%)| Muricoccus (94.4%) and Sphingomonas (96.6-98.5%)| based on 16S rRNA gene sequences. Our results demonstrate that proteobacterial anoxygenic phototrophs may be found in dry soil environments| implying desiccation resistance as yet unreported for this group. By utilizing sunlight for part of their energy needs| aerobic phototrophs can accelerate organic carbon cycling in nutrient-poor arid soils. Their effects will be especially important as global climate change enhances soil erosion and consequent nutrient loss. 11054,2010,5,4,A new Late-glacial and Holocene record of vegetation and fire history from Lago del Greppo| northern Apennines| Italy,Detailed Late-glacial and Holocene palaeoenvironmental records from the northern Apennines with a robust chronology are still rare| though the region has been regarded as a main area of potential refugia of important trees such as Picea abies and Abies alba. We present a new high-resolution pollen and stomata record from Lago del Greppo (1|442 m a.s.l.| Pistoia| northern Apennines) that has been dated relying on 12 terrestrial plant macrofossils. Late-glacial woodlands became established before 13000 cal b.p. and were dominated by Pinus and Betula| although more thermophilous taxa such as Quercus| Tilia and Ulmus were already present in the Greppo area| probably at lower altitudes. Abies and Picea expanded locally at the onset of the Holocene at ca. 11500 cal b.p. Fagus sylvatica was the last important tree to expand at ca. 6500 cal b.p.| following the decline of Abies. Human impact was generally low throughout the Holocene| and the local woods remained rather closed until the most recent time| ca. a.d. 1700-1800. The vegetational history of Lago del Greppo appears consistent with that of previous investigations in the study region. Late-glacial and Holocene vegetation dynamics in the northern Apennines are very similar to those in the Insubrian southern Alps bordering Switzerland and Italy| across the Po Plain. Similarities between the two areas include the Late-glacial presence of Abies alba| its strong dominance during the Holocene across different vegetation belts from the lowlands to high elevations| as well as its final fire and human-triggered reduction during the mid Holocene. Our new data suggest that isolated and minor Picea abies populations survived the Late-glacial in the foothills of the northern Apennines and that at the onset of the Holocene they moved upwards| reaching the site of Lago del Greppo. Today stands of Picea abies occur only in two small areas in the highest part of the northern Apennines| and they have become extinct elsewhere. Given the forecast global warming| these relict Picea abies stands of the northern Apennines| which have a history of at least 13|000 years| appear severely endangered. 11050,2010,2,2,A New Look at Snowpack Trends in the Cascade Mountains,This study examines the changes in Cascade Mountain spring snowpack since 1930. Three new time series facilitate this analysis: a water-balance estimate of Cascade snowpack from 1930 to 2007 that extends the observational record 20 years earlier than standard snowpack measurements; a radiosonde-based time series of lower-tropospheric temperature during onshore flow| to which Cascade snowpack is well correlated; and a new index of the North Pacific sea level pressure pattern that encapsulates modes of variability to which Cascade spring snowpack is particularly sensitive. Cascade spring snowpack declined 23% during 1930-2007. This loss is nearly statistically significant at the 5% level. The snowpack increased 19% during the recent period of most rapid global warming (1976-2007)| though this change is not statistically significant because of large annual variability. From 1950 to 1997| a large and statistically significant decline of 48% occurred. However| 80% of this decline is connected to changes in the circulation patterns over the North Pacific Ocean that vary naturally on annual to interdecadal time scales. The residual time series of Cascade snowpack after Pacific variability is removed displays a relatively steady loss rate of 2.0% decade (1)| yielding a loss of 16% from 1930 to 2007. This loss is very nearly statistically significant and includes the possible impacts of anthropogenic global warming. The dates of maximum snowpack and 90% melt out have shifted 5 days earlier since 1930. Both shifts are statistically insignificant. A new estimate of the sensitivity of Cascade spring snowpack to temperature of -11% per degrees C| when combined with climate model projections of 850-hPa temperatures offshore of the Pacific Northwest| yields a projected 9% loss of Cascade spring snowpack due to anthropogenic global warming between 1985 and 2025. 11372,2010,3,2,A NEW MARKET RISK MITIGATING APPROACH TO COMBINED HEAT AND POWER PROJECT FINANCE WITHOUT THE BENEFITS OF A POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT,This article describes a new market risk mitigating model for future combined heat and power (CHP) project finance. The need arose from the fact that federal legislative changes in 2005 no longer entitle cogeneration project financings by law to receive the benefit of a power purchase agreement underwritten by state investor-owned utilities. CHP project investment represents a potentially enormous energy efficiency benefit through its application by reducing fossil fuel use up to 55% when compared to traditional energy generation and concurrently eliminates constituent air emissions up to 50%| including global warming gases. As a supplemental approach to a comprehensive technical analysis| a quantitative multivariate modeling was used to test the statistical validity and reliability of host facility energy demand and CHP supply ratios in predicting the economic performance of CHP project finance. The resulting analytical models| although not statistically reliable at this time| suggest a radically simplified CHP design method for predicting future profitable CHP investments using four easily attainable energy ratios. This design method shows that financially successful CHP adoption occurs when the average system heat-to-power ratio is less than or equal to the average host convertible energy ratio| and when the average nominally rated capacity is less than average host facility load factor demands. New CHP investments can play a role in solving the worldwide problem of accommodating growing energy demand while preserving our precious and irreplaceable air quality for future generations. 10614,2010,3,3,A new method for estimating carbon dioxide emissions from transportation at fine spatial scales,Detailed estimates of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions at fine spatial scales are useful to both modelers and decision makers who are faced with the problem of global warming and climate change. Globally| transport related emissions of carbon dioxide are growing. This letter presents a new method based on the volume-preserving principle in the areal interpolation literature to disaggregate transportation-related CO(2) emission estimates from the county-level scale to a 1 km(2) grid scale. The proposed volume-preserving interpolation (VPI) method| together with the distance-decay principle| were used to derive emission weights for each grid based on its proximity to highways| roads| railroads| waterways| and airports. The total CO(2) emission value summed from the grids within a county is made to be equal to the original county-level estimate| thus enforcing the volume-preserving property. The method was applied to downscale the transportation-related CO(2) emission values by county (i.e. parish) for the state of Louisiana into 1 km(2) grids. The results reveal a more realistic spatial pattern of CO(2) emission from transportation| which can be used to identify the emission 'hot spots'. Of the four highest transportation-related CO(2) emission hotspots in Louisiana| high-emission grids literally covered the entire East Baton Rouge Parish and Orleans Parish| whereas CO(2) emission in Jefferson Parish (New Orleans suburb) and Caddo Parish (city of Shreveport) were more unevenly distributed. We argue that the new method is sound in principle| flexible in practice| and the resultant estimates are more accurate than previous gridding approaches. 406,2010,3,3,A new NAMA framework for dispersed energy end-use sectors,This paper presents a new approach for a nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMA) framework that can unlock the huge potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in dispersed energy end-use sectors in developing countries; specifically| the building sector and the industrial sector. These two sectors make up the largest portions of energy consumption in developing countries. However| due to multiple barriers and lack of effective polices| energy efficiency in dispersed energy end-use sectors has not been effectively put into practice. The new NAMA framework described in this paper is designed to fulfill the demand for public policies and public sector investment in developing countries and thereby boost private sector investment through project based market mechanisms| such as CDM. The new NAMA framework is designed as a need-based mechanism which effectively considers the conditions of each developing country. The building sector is used as an example to demonstrate how NAMA measures can be registered and implemented. The described new NAMA framework has the ability to interface efficiently with Kyoto Protocol mechanisms and to facilitate a systematic uptake for GHG emission reduction investment projects. This is an essential step to achieve the global climate change mitigation target and support sustainable development in developing countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10810,2010,4,2,A new one-dimensional simple energy balance and carbon cycle coupled model for global warming simulation,Global warming and accompanying climate change may be caused by an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gasses generated by anthropogenic activities. In order to supply such a mechanism of global warming with a quantitative underpinning| we need to understand the multifaceted roles of the Earth's energy balance and material cycles. In this study| we propose a new one-dimensional simple Earth system model. The model consists of carbon and energy balance submodels with a north-south zonal structure. The two submodels are coupled by interactive feedback processes such as CO(2) fertilization of net primary production (NPP) and temperature dependencies of NPP| soil respiration| and ocean surface chemistry. The most important characteristics of the model are not only that the model requires a relatively short calculation time for carbon and energy simulation compared with a General Circulation Model (GCM) and an Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC)| but also that the model can simulate average latitudinal variations. In order to analyze the response of the Earth system due to increasing greenhouse gasses| several simulations were conducted in one dimension from the years 1750 to 2000. Evaluating terrestrial and oceanic carbon uptake output of the model in the meridional direction through comparison with observations and satellite data| we analyzed the time variation patterns of air temperature in low- and middle-latitude belts. The model successfully reproduced the temporal variation in each latitude belt and the latitudinal distribution pattern of carbon uptake. Therefore| this model could more accurately demonstrate a difference in the latitudinal response of air temperature than existing models. As a result of the model evaluations| we concluded that this new one-dimensional simple Earth system model is a good tool for conducting global warming simulations. From future projections using various emission scenarios| we showed that the spatial distribution of terrestrial carbon uptake may vary greatly| not only among models used for climate change simulations| but also amongst emission scenarios. 11302,2010,2,4,A new projection of sea level change in response to collapse of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet,We present gravitationally self-consistent predictions of sea level change that would follow the disappearance of either the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) or marine sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). Our predictions are based on a state-of-the-art pseudo-spectral sea level algorithm that incorporates deformational| gravitational and rotational effects on sea level| as well as the migration of shorelines due to both local sea-level variations and changes in the extent of marine-based ice cover. If we define the effective eustatic value (EEV) as the geographically uniform rise in sea level once all marine-based sectors have been filled with water| then we find that some locations can experience a sea level rise that is similar to 40 per cent higher than the EEV. This enhancement is due to the migration of water away from the zone of melting in response to the loss of gravitational attraction towards the ice sheet (load self-attraction)| the expulsion of water from marine areas as these regions rebound due to the unloading| and the feedback into sea level of a contemporaneous perturbation in Earth rotation. In the WAIS case| this peak enhancement is twice the value predicted in a previous projection that did not include expulsion of water from exposed marine-sectors of the West Antarctic or rotational feedback. The peak enhancements occur over the coasts of the United States and in the Indian Ocean in the WAIS melt scenario| and over the south Atlantic and northwest Pacific in the EAIS scenario. We conclude that accurate projections of the sea level hazard associated with ongoing global warming should be based on a theory that includes the complete suite of physical processes described above. 11339,2010,5,4,A NEW RECONSTRUCTION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE DURING THE LAST TWO MILLENNIA,A new temperature reconstruction with decadal resolution covering the last two millennia is presented for the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere (90-30 degrees N). utilizing many palaeo-temperature proxy records never previously included in any large-scale temperature reconstruction The amplitude of the reconstructed temperature variability on centennial time-scales exceeds 0 6 degrees C This reconstruction is the first to show a distinct Roman Warm Period c AD 1-300| reaching up to the 1961-1990 mean temperature level| followed by the Dark Age Cold Period c AD 300-800 The Medieval Warm Period is seen c AD 800-1300 and the Little Ice Age is clearly visible c AD 1300-1900. followed by a rapid temperature increase in the twentieth century The highest average temperatures m the reconstruction are encountered in the mid to late tenth century and the lowest in the late seventeenth century Decadal mean temperatures Scent to have reached or exceeded the 1961-1990 mean temperature level during substantial pails of the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period The temperature of the last two decades| however| is possibly higher than during any previous time in the past two millennia| although this is only Seen in the instrumental temperature data and not in the multi-proxy reconstruction itself Our temperature reconstruction agrees well with the reconstructions by Moberg et al (2005) and Mann et al (2008) with regard to the amplitude of the variability as well as the timing of warm and cold periods| except for the period c AD 300-800| despite significant differences in both data coverage and methodology 10467,2010,5,4,A New Small-Bodied Species of Palaeonictis (Creodonta| Oxyaenidae) from the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,Oxyaenid creodonts are extinct carnivorous mammals known from the Paleogene of North America| Europe| and Asia. The genus Palaeonictis is represented by three species that together span the late Paleocene to early Eocene of North America| and at least one species from the early Eocene of Europe. Previously| only a single trigonid of Palaeonictis was known from the interval encompassing the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) in North America. We describe Palaeonictis wingi sp. nov. from the PETM in the Cabin Fork drainage| southeastern Bighorn Basin| Wyoming| based on associated right and left dentaries with P(2)-M(2). Palaeonictis wingi sp. nov. is substantially smaller than the other North American congeners| making it similar in size to P. gigantea from the earliest Eocene of Europe and the previously described PETM specimen. We suggest that a form similar to the large-bodied late Paleocene P. peloria from North America gave rise to two smaller species in the earliest Eocene of North America (P. wingi) and Europe (P. gigantea). Palaeonictis wingi may have given rise to P. occidentalis following the PETM in North America. Dispersal of Palaeonictis to Europe coincided with rapid global warming of 5-10A degrees C and related geographic range shifts in plants and other animals during the PETM. It has been suggested that certain mammalian lineages decreased in body size during the PETM| possibly in response to elevated temperature and/or higher CO(2) levels. Results from a dietary analysis of Palaeonictis indicate that it was an omnivore that primarily consumed meat. This suggests that the decreased nutritious quality of vegetation caused by increased CO(2) levels was not the direct contributing factor that caused body size reduction of this lineage during the PETM. Other selective pressures such as temperature| aridity| and prey size may have also contributed to the smaller body size of carnivorous mammals during this interval| although the presence of smaller species could also be explained by latitudinal range shifts of mammals during the PETM. 11039,2010,3,1,A novel formulation of carbon emissions costs for optimal design configuration of system transmission planning,This paper describes a methodology developed for designing an optimal configuration for system transmission planning with carbon emissions costs. The power transmission network planning problem is modeled by the mixed integer programming model| a GA| and SA. At this moment environmental issues have the most serious problem to be concerned within every part of the world. Global warming| which is mainly caused by the emissions of Green House Gases (GHGs)| is said to be a serious part of these environmental problems. Since green house gases issues become important and the new legislations are taken into account| carbon emissions costs are included in the total costs of the transmission network planning. This method of solution is demonstrated on the real problem. Finally| the genetic algorithm shows to be a very good option for network planning systems given that it obtains much accentuated reductions of iteration| which is very important for network planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10921,2010,3,4,A novel technique for the production of cool colored concrete tile and asphalt shingle roofing products,The widespread use of solar-reflective roofing materials can save energy| mitigate urban heat islands and slow global warming by cooling the roughly 20% of the urban surface that is roofed. In this study we created prototype solar-reflective nonwhite concrete tile and asphalt shingle roofing materials using a two-layer spray coating process intended to maximize both solar reflectance and factory-line throughput. Each layer is a thin| quick-drying| pigmented latex paint based on either acrylic or a poly(vinylidene fluoride)/acrylic blend. The first layer is a titanium dioxide rutile white basecoat that increases the solar reflectance of a gray-cement concrete tile from 0.18 to 0.79| and that of a shingle surfaced with bare granules from 0.06 to 0.62. The second layer is a "cool" color topcoat with weak near-infrared (NIR) absorption and/or strong NIR backscattering. Each layer dries within seconds| potentially allowing a factory line to pass first under the white spray| then under the color spray. We combined a white basecoat with monocolor topcoats in various shades of red| brown| green and blue to prepare 24 cool colored prototype tiles and 24 cool colored prototypes shingles. The solar reflectances of the tiles ranged from 0.26 (dark brown; CIELAB lightness value L*=29) to 0.57 (light green; L*=76); those of the shingles ranged from 0.18 (dark brown; L*=26) to 0.34 (light green; L*=68). Over half of the tiles had a solar reflectance of at least 0.40| and over half of the shingles had a solar reflectance of at least 0.25. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10963,2010,4,4,A parameterized model of heat storage by lake sediments,A model of seasonal heat storage by lake sediments is proposed oriented at applications in climate modeling and at lake parameterization in numerical weather prediction. The computational efficiency is achieved by reformulating of the heat transfer problem as a set of ordinary differential equations for evolution of the temperature wave inside the upper sediment layer. Arising temperature and depth scales completely replace the conductivity of the sediment in the heat transfer equation and can be easily achieved from the lake water temperature observations without any data on the sediment thermal properties. The method is proposed for the scales estimation from the inverse solution of the model equations in special case of the constant water-sediment heat flux in ice-covered lakes. The method is tested on data from sediments of Lake Krasnoye| North-Western Russia. The long-term (1961-2002) modeling of temperature in German lakes Muggelsee and Heiligensee with a coupled one-dimensional model of lake water column and sediments has demonstrated an appreciable effect of the sediment heat storage on near-bottom temperatures in both lakes. Thus| incorporation of the sediment layer into lake temperature models can essentially improve| at low computational costs| the model performance| especially for shallow lakes. In addition| a better forecast of near-bottom temperature evolution on climatic scales can provide a better understanding of the response of lake benthic communities to global warming. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10537,2010,3,4,A performance comparison of vapour-compression refrigeration system using various alternative refrigerants,A theoretical performance study on a traditional vapour-compression refrigeration system with refrigerant mixtures based on HFC134a| HFC152a| HFC32| HC290| HC1270| HC600| and HC600a was done for various ratios and their results are compared with CFC12| CFC22| and HFC134a as possible alternative replacements: In spite of the HC refrigerants' highly flammable characteristics| they are used in many applications| with attention being paid to the safety of the leakage from the system| as other refrigerants in recent years are not related with any effect on the depletion of the ozone layer and increase in global warming. Theoretical results showed that all of the alternative refrigerants investigated in the analysis have a slightly lower performance coefficient (COP) than CFC12| CFC22| and HFC134a for the condensation temperature of 50 degrees C and evaporating temperatures ranging between -30 degrees C and 10 degrees C. Refrigerant blends of HC290/HC600a (40/60 by wt.%) instead of CFC12 and HC290/HC1270 (20/80 by wt.%) instead of CFC22 are found to be replacement refrigerants among other alternatives in this paper as a result of the analysis. The effects of the main parameters of performance analysis such as refrigerant type| degree of subcooling| and superheating on the refrigerating effect| coefficient of performance and volumetric refrigeration capacity are also investigated for various evaporating temperatures. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 10505,2010,3,3,A performance study on a direct drive hydro turbine for wave energy converter,Clean and renewable energy technologies using ocean energy give us non-polluting alternatives to fossil-fueled power plants as a countermeasure against global warming and growing demand for electrical energy Among the ocean energy resources| wave power takes a growing interest because of its enormous amount of potential energy m the world Therefore| various types of wave power systems to capture the energy of ocean waves have been developed However| a suitable turbine type is not yet normalized because of relatively low efficiency of the turbine systems The purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of a newly developed direct drive hydro turbine (DDT)| which will be built in a caisson for a wave power plant Experiment and CFD analysis are conducted to clarify the turbine performance and internal flow characteristics The results show that the DDT obtains fairly good turbine efficiency in cases with and without wave conditions Most of the output power is generated at the runner passage of Stage 2 Relatively larger amount of the decreased tangential velocity at Stage 2 produces more angular momentum than that at Stage 1 and thus| the larger angular momentum at the Stage 2 makes a greater contribution to the generation of total output power in comparison with that at Stage 1 Large vortex existing in the upper-left region of the runner passage forms a large recirculation region in the runner passage| and the recirculating flow consumes the output power at Region 2 11274,2010,2,3,A projection of future changes in summer precipitation and monsoon in East Asia,The future potential changes in precipitation and monsoon circulation in the summer in East Asia are projected using the latest generation of coupled climate models under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario (a medium emission scenario). The multi-model ensemble means show that during the period of 2010-2099| the summer precipitation in East Asia will increase and experience a prominent change around the 2040s| with a small increase (similar to 1%) before the end of the 2040s and a large increase (similar to 9%) afterward. This kind of two-stage evolution characteristic of precipitation change can be seen most clearly in North China| and then in South China and in the mid and lower Yangtze River Valley. In 2010-2099| the projected precipitation pattern will be dominated by a pattern of "wet East China" that explains 33.6% of EOF total variance. The corresponded time coefficient will markedly increase after the 2040s| indicating a great contribution from this mode to the enhanced precipitation across all East China. Other precipitation patterns that prevail in the current climate only contribute a small proportion to the total variance| with no prominent liner trend in the future. By the late 21st century| the monsoon circulation will be stronger in East Asia. At low level| this is due to the intensification of southwesterly airflow north of the anticyclone over the western Pacific and the SCS| and at high level| it is caused by the increased northeasterly airflow east of the anticyclone over South Asia. The enhanced monsoon circulation will also experience a two-stage evolution in 2010-2099| with a prominent increase (by similar to 0.6 m s(-1)) after the 2040s. The atmospheric water vapor content over East Asia will greatly increase (by similar to 9%) at the end of 21st century. The water vapor transported northward into East China will be intensified and display a prominent increase around the 2040s similar to other examined variables. These indicate that the enhanced precipitation over East Asia is caused by the increases in both monsoon circulation and water vapor| which is greatly different from South Asia. Both the dynamical and thermal dynamic variables will evolve consistently in response to the global warming in East Asia| i.e.| the intensified southwesterly monsoon airflow corresponding to the increased water vapor and southwesterly moisture transport. 461,2010,5,4,A quantitative Late Quaternary temperature reconstruction from western Tasmania| Australia,Late Quaternary temperature estimates from the mid latitudes of the Australian region suggest a breakdown in the tight coupling observed between oceanic and atmospheric temperatures over the recent past that has significant implications for our understanding of the response of the Earth's climate system to global climate change and orbital forcing. Here| we present a pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstruction from the mid latitudes of Australia that spans the last 135 000 years| enabling us to address this critical issue. Gradient analysis of a pollen dataset inclusive of over 1100 Quaternary and modern pollen spectra demonstrates the dominant influence of temperature over Quaternary pollen composition and vegetation change in western Tasmania| Australia. We develop and apply a transfer function for average annual temperature that performs excellently under cross-validation (r(2) = 0.76; RMSEP 1 degrees C)| is not influenced by spatial autocorrelation and that reveals a remarkably close correlation between oceanic and atmospheric temperature change over the last 135 000 years. Significantly| we report a substantially lower degree of cooling during the LGM/MIS 2 (3.7-4.2 degrees C below present) than previously estimated; a similar degree of cooling during MIS 4 as the LGM (ca 4 degrees C); and a 1 C warming during the last Interglacial relative to today. We conclude that atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes in this region have remained coupled throughout the substantial climatic shifts associated with glacial interglacial cycles over the last 135 000 years. Western Tasmanian pollen records have great potential as a Southern Hemisphere terrestrial palaeothermometer and are critically located to provide significant input in to debates over the occurrence and influence of regional and global climatic episodes in the Southern Hemisphere. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10633,2010,3,3,A Quest for Sustainable Materials for Building Elements in Sri Lanka: Foundations,Selection of environmentally benign| economical and socially favorable materials for construction is helpful in sustainable development. This article presents a method to select such materials (i.e.| sustainable materials) for foundations of buildings (elements) in Sri Lanka taking into consideration environmental| economic and social assessments of materials in a life cycle perspective. Rubble and burnt clay bricks elements which are widely used for the masonry buildings in Sri Lanka were selected for this study. Major materials used for these elements are rubble| burnt clay bricks| cement| sand| concrete aggregates and steel (reinforcements). Environmental burdens associated with these materials were analyzed in terms of embodied energy| global warming| acidification and nutrient enrichment. Economic analysis was based on market prices and affordability of materials. Social factors that were taken into account were ability to construct rapidly| strength| reusability and durability. It was found that the rubble element was superior to the brick element in all environmental scores (embodied energy| global warming| acidification and nutrient enrichment). The embodied energy of the rubble element was found as 6.7 GJ and that of the brick element was 444.7 GJ. However| on economic score the brick element was slightly better and on social score also| this element was better. The social score of the brick element was 104.7 and that of the rubble element was 94.6. These scores are presented in a matrix which will help to select sustainable materials for these elements. (C) 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog| 29: 370-381| 2010 11495,2010,2,4,A radius-depth model for midlatitude cyclones in reanalysis data and simulations,Geometric properties of winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) midlatitude cyclones are analysed in reanalysis data| present-day and global warming simulations. Cyclone centres are identified by the minima of the 1000 hPa geopotential height. Fitting an azimuthally symmetric Gaussian function to the surrounding height field provides cyclone depth (difference between the cyclone centre and the synoptic environment)| radius (standard deviation)| geostrophic wind and vorticity. Analysing ERA-40 reanalysis data of different resolutions and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario simulations by the coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM yields mean radii of 300-500 km in winter and 300-400 km in summer. Depth maxima occur in the storm tracks (determined by the bandpass-filtered variance of the geopotential height)| and the smallest radii characterize oceanic cyclogenesis regions. The geostrophic vorticity| derived from the fitted Gaussian model| agrees reasonably well with the observed relative vorticity. Future warmer climate scenarios exhibit smaller radii and weaker depths during winter and summer. An intense growth of the depth is found during the 2-10 day cyclone life cycles| while the radii reveal negligible growth. Compositing depths with respect to normalized total lifetime leads to rescaled depth life cycles| which collapse to a simple universal function| (a) over tilde (1 - (a) over tilde)| for relative cyclone age (a) over tilde. Copyright (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society 11438,2010,4,2,A remote sensing technique for global monitoring of power plant CO(2) emissions from space and related applications,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) causing global warming. The atmospheric CO(2) concentration increased by more than 30% since pre-industrial times - primarily due to burning of fossil fuels - and still continues to increase. Reporting of CO(2) emissions is required by the Kyoto protocol. Independent verification of reported emissions| which are typially not directly measured| by methods such as inverse modeling of measured atmospheric CO(2) concentrations is currently not possible globally due to lack of appropriate observations. Existing satellite instruments such as SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT and TANSO/GOSAT focus on advancing our understanding of natural CO(2) sources and sinks. The obvious next step for future generation satellites is to also constrain anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Here we present a promising satellite remote sensing concept based on spectroscopic measurements of reflected solar radiation and show| using power plants as an example| that strong localized CO(2) point sources can be detected and their emissions quantified. This requires mapping the atmospheric CO(2) column distribution at a spatial resolution of 2x2 km(2) with a precision of 0.5% (2 ppm) or better. We indicate that this can be achieved with existing technology. For a single satellite in sun-synchronous orbit with a swath width of 500 km| each power plant (PP) is overflown every 6 days or more frequent. Based on the MODIS cloud mask data product we conservatively estimate that typically 20 sufficiently cloud free overpasses per PP can be achieved every year. We found that for typical wind speeds in the range of 2-6 m/s the statistical uncertainty of the retrieved PP CO(2) emission due to instrument noise is in the range 1.6-4.8MtCO(2)/yr for single overpasses. This corresponds to 12-36% of the emission of a mid-size PP (13 MtCO(2)/yr). We have also determined the sensitivity to parameters which may result in systematic errors such as atmospheric transport and aerosol related parameters. We found that the emission error depends linearly on wind speed| i.e.| a 10% wind speed error results in a 10% emission error| and that neglecting enhanced aerosol concentrations in the PP plume may result in errors in the range 0.2-2.5 MtCO(2)/yr| depending on PP aerosol emission. The discussed concept has the potential to contribute to an independent verification of reported anthropogenic CO(2) emissions and therefore could be an important component of a future global anthropogenic GHG emission monitoring system. This is of relevance in the context of Kyoto protocol follow-on agreements but also allows detection and monitoring of a variety of other strong natural and anthropogenic CO(2) and CH(4) emitters. The investigated instrument is not limited to these applications as it has been specified to also deliver the data needed for global regional-scale CO(2) and CH(4) surface flux inverse modeling. 541,2010,3,2,A retrospective and lessons learned from Natural Resources Canada's Forest 2020 afforestation initiative,Canada is seeking cost-effective means to mitigate anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions| particularly CO(2)| that have been linked to global climate change. In 2003 the Government of Canada launched the Forest 2020 Plantation Development and Assessment Initiative to assess the potential for fast-growing woody crops to sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Across the country 6000 ha of plantations were established and monitored on nonforested lands (afforestation) using a variety of methods. Economic analyses assessed the investment attractiveness of this mitigation measure for a range of species and suitable lands| taking into account such factors as growth rates| agricultural opportunity costs and a range of possible carbon values. Analyses illustrated that at current trading prices for carbon and for much of the available lands and expanding markets for forest bioproducts| expected rates of return on investment for afforestation were relatively low. However| higher future carbon prices| combined with monetary values for environmental benefits| could dramatically change the economics of afforestation in the future. 353,2010,4,4,A review of recent developments on turbulent entrainment in stratified flows,Stratified interfaces are present in many geophysical flow situations| and transport across such an interface is an essential factor for correctly evaluating the physical processes taking place at many spatial and temporal scales in such flows. In order to accurately evaluate vertical and lateral transport occurring when a turbulent flow impinges on a stratified interface| the turbulent entrainment and vorticity generation mechanisms near the interface must be understood and quantified. Laboratory experiments were performed for three flow configurations: a vertical thermal| a sloping gravity current and a vertical turbulent jet with various tilt angles and precession speeds. All three flows impinged on an interface separating a two-layer stably stratified environment. The entrainment rate is quantified for each flow using laser-induced fluorescence and compared to predictions of Cotel and Breidenthal (1997 Appl. Sci. Res. 57 349-66). The possible applications of transport across stratified interfaces include the contribution of hydrothermal plumes to the global ocean energy budget| turbidity currents on the ocean floor| the design of lake de-stratification systems| modeling gas leaks from storage reservoirs| weather forecasting and global climate change. 11108,2010,2,4,A simple method for estimating excess mortality due to heat waves| as applied to the 2006 California heat wave,To characterize excess mortality during a major heat wave in California and its regions; to assess the validity of a simple method. We calculated mortality rate ratios for the heat-wave period| using a reference period of the same number of days from the same summer. We conducted alternative analyses and compared our results with those from a time-series model. We estimated 655 excess deaths| a 6% increase (95% confidence interval| 3-9%)| impacting varied geographic/climate regions. Alternate analyses supported model validity. California experienced excess heat-wave related mortality not restricted to high heat regions. As climate change is anticipated to increase heat events| public health efforts to monitor effects assume greater importance. 10650,2010,3,3,A simple model for the prediction of CO(2) solubility in H(2)O-NaCl system at geological sequestration conditions,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) released in the atmosphere is the principal cause of the so-called global warming or greenhouse phenomenon. One procedure for the mitigation of CO(2) consists of the capture| transport and geological storage (sequestration) of the gas in deep saline aquifers. In this work| a model for predicting CO(2) solubility in H(2)O-NaCl system covering conditions typically encountered in geological sequestration (e.g.| 300-500 K| 50-2000 bar| and 1-4 mol salt/kg) has been developed and validated by comparison with available experimental and theoretical data. The model is a simple one with four adjustable parameters that is based on an extension of the well-known Setschenov model [K(gs)/K(g0) = (P/P(0))(f(Tr|m)) with f(T(r)|m) = (0.461 + 0.078 m) (-1 + T(r)/(1.0 + 0.1267 m)]. The model is developed by exploiting interesting features in the behavior of solubility data of CO(2) in saline water over the above-mentioned ranges of conditions. The model is capable of predicting CO(2) solubility in saline water with accuracy comparable to that made by multi-parameter models (having 20 parameters or more). It is also in very good agreement with the available experimental data with root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) in the range of 0.03-0.225 mol CO(2)/kg H(2)O. The extrapolative power of the model is acceptable at both ends of its range of applicability. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10530,2010,3,4,A study on the interference effects for tidal current power rotors,Due to global warming| the need to secure an alternative resource has become more important nationally. With the high tidal range of up to 9.7 m on the west coast of Korea| numerous tidal current projects are being planned and constructed. To extract a significant quantity of power| a tidal current farm with a multi-arrangement is necessary in the ocean. The rotor| which initially converts the energy| is a very important component because it affects the efficiency of the entire system| and its performance is determined by various design variables. The power generation is strongly dependent on the size of the rotor and the incoming flow velocity. However| the interactions between devices also contribute significantly to the total power capacity. Therefore| rotor performance considering the interaction problems needs to be investigated for generating maximum power in a specific field. This paper documents a performance study of devices considering the interference between rotating rotors with axial| transverse and diagonal arrangements. 10685,2010,2,3,A study on the relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperature and Amazonian greenness,The growth of tropical rainforest in Amazon is critically vulnerable to the change in rainfall and radiation than in temperature| and that amount of rainfall and cloudiness in the northeast region of South American is strongly affected by the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) Results from recent model experiments for future climate projection have indicated a reduction of Amazonian greenness by a weakening of tropical vapor circulation system related with the change in SST Therefore| the observational investigation of the relations between the Amazon greenness and Atlantic SST is fundamental to understand the response of Amazonian tropical forest to climate change. In this study| the effect of Atlantic SST on the spatial and temporal change of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Amazonian region is examined by using satellite remote sensing data for the period of 1981-2001. A strong correlation between NDVI and SST is found for certain regions in Amazon during the periods of 1980s and 1990s| respectively. In addition| strong correlations with NDVI lagging behind SST for two months and one year| respectively| are also identified from the interannual December-to-February (rain season) variations during 1981-2001. Despite these findings| the mechanisms behind the identified correlation remain unclear Further analyses using observed precipitation and radiation data are required to understand the potential changes of Amazonian rainforest in the context of global warming (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved 350,2010,4,4,A thermodynamic model for estimating sea and lake ice thickness with optical satellite data,Sea ice is a very important indicator and an effective modulator of regional and global climate change. Current remote sensing techniques provide an unprecedented opportunity to monitor the cryosphere routinely with relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions. In this paper| we introduce a thermodynamic model to estimate sea and lake ice thickness with optical (visible| near-infrared| and infrared) satellite data. Comparisons of nighttime ice thickness retrievals to ice thickness measurements from upward looking submarine sonar show that this thermodynamic model is capable of retrieving ice thickness up to 2.8 m. The mean absolute error is 0.18 m for samples with a mean ice thickness of 1.62 m| i.e.| an 11% mean absolute error. Comparisons with in situ Canadian stations and moored upward looking sonar measurements show similar results. Sensitivity studies indicate that the largest errors come from uncertainties in surface albedo and downward solar radiation flux estimates from satellite data| followed by uncertainties in snow depth and cloud fractional coverage. Due to the relatively large uncertainties in current satellite retrievals of surface albedo and surface downward shortwave radiation flux| the current model is not recommended for use with daytime data. For nighttime data| the model is capable of resolving regional and seasonal variations in ice thickness and is useful for climatological analysis. 11542,2010,2,4,A THREE-YEAR SURVEY ON THE IMPACT OF PRE-FLOWERING LEAF REMOVAL ON BERRY GROWTH COMPONENTS AND GRAPE COMPOSITION IN CV. BARBERA VINES,Aims: Competitiveness in modem viticulture requires that vineyard management techniques used for crop regulation. besides being economically viable| would assure stable grape composition improvement across variability of genotypes and seasons. Pre-flowering basal leaf removal has previously been shown as an effective tool in controlling yield primarily through a reduced fruit-set. This study aims to evaluate the impact of early leaf removal on the differential growth of the various berry organs (skin| flesh and seeds) as well as the constancy of such effects across season variability and their impact on final grape composition. Methods and results: Pre-bloom defoliation (D) of the first six basal leaves on main shoots was applied to the field-grown Barbera cultivar (Vitis vin(era L.) from 2006 to 2008 and compared with non-defoliated (ND) controls. Over a three-year period| defoliation induced a 34% average reduction in berry number as compared to ND| which led to a notable decrease in fruit-set (-7.6 %)| cluster mass (-34%) and yield per shoot (-30%). The berry mass showed a significant relationship with the year factor| as berry size in D shoots was larger| similar and smaller than ND in 2006| 2007 and 2008| respectively. In both treatments| skin mass was closely correlated with berry mass and| within each season and berry mass category. D had relative skin mass values higher than ND. Although the effects were milder in 2007. D induced a significant increase in soluble solids| anthocyanins and phenolics| whereas total acidity was unaffected. Conclusion: These results indicate that| regardless of final berry size| a pm-flowering defoliation favors skin development| which results in higher relative skin mass than ND vines. This effect appears to predominate over variations due to specific weather and cultural conditions along the season and leads to a marked improvement in final grape composition. Significance and impact of study: Repeatability of results implies a strong physiological regulation of this technique and encourages extension of its use in areas where the occurrence of high cropping and large clusters with a high degree of compactness does exist. In a global warming scenario| it is also relevant that the yield decrease and the improvement in overall grape composition are not obtained at the expense of a further reduction in berry acidity. 10472,2010,3,3,A time-space network based international transportation scheduling problem incorporating CO(2) emission levels,Environmental problems have received a great deal of attention in recent years. In particular| CO(2) emissions worsen global warming and other environmental problems. The transport sector accounts for 20% of the total CO(2) emissions. Therefore| the CO(2) emission reduction of the transport sector is of great importance. In order to reduce emissions effectively| it is necessary to change the distribution and transportation processes. The purpose of this study is to minimize both the transportation costs and CO(2) emissions during transportation. Our model considers a transportation scheduling problem in which loads are transported from an overseas production base to three domestic demand centers. The need for time-space networks arises naturally to improve the model. It is possible to know the distance carriers are moving| and also consider the timetables of carriers during transportation. Carrier choice| less-than carrier load| and domestic transportation among demand centers are considered as the three target areas to reduce CO(2) emissions during the distribution process. The research model was formulated as a mixed integer programming (MIP) problem. It achieves cost reduction| and will contribute to improvement of the natural environment. 619,2010,3,2,A Very Inconvenient Truth,Studies conducted after those that contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) suggest that human society may be facing a very inconvenient truth-that emission reduction efforts alone are unlikely to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at levels low enough to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Here| we discuss reasons why the IPCC process is prone to underestimating the threats of global climate change. We then review some of the critical policy-relevant scientific findings that have emerged since the release of the IPCC FAR. Finally| we discuss how these new findings fundamentally transform the debate on efforts needed to prevent dangerous changes to our climate system. It now appears that to avoid such changes| society will likely need to adopt a mixed strategy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and employing geoengineering approaches that extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and/or reduce the level of incoming solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. 10948,2010,5,4,A warming interval during the MIS 5a/4 transition in two high-resolution loess sections from China,An abrupt climatic change during the MIS 5a/4 transition is evident in the loess records of China (S1/L1) Proxies including geochemical elements| grain size| soil color| magnetic susceptibility and carbonate (CaCO(3)) content indicate a warming interval| which lasted approximately 3 ka| during the MIS 5a/4 transition in both the Wangguan and Shagou loess sections| located in Sanmenxia (Henan Province) and Wuwei (Gansu Province)| respectively. Both the winter and summer monsoon proxies demonstrate that this warming interval occurred at the same time in both sections (nearly 705-73.6 ka BP)| with maximum warming from 71 4 to 72.0 ka BP. This study suggests a universal abrupt warming interval in the East Asia monsoon region at this time. Comparisons with marine| terrestrial and ice-core records indicate this event was very likely an abrupt global warming interval during the last glacial-interglacial transition (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved 11226,2010,3,3,Abatement of Methane Production from Ruminants: Trends in the Manipulation of Rumen Fermentation,Methane emitted from ruminant livestock is regarded as a loss of feed energy and also a contributor to global warming. Methane is synthesized in the rumen as one of the hydrogen sink products that are unavoidable for efficient succession of anaerobic microbial fermentation. Various attempts have been made to reduce methane emission| mainly through rumen microbial manipulation| by the use of agents including chemicals| antibiotics and natural products such as oils| fatty acids and plant extracts. A newer approach is the development of vaccines against methanogenic bacteria. While ionophore antibiotics have been widely used due to their efficacy and affordable prices| the use of alternative natural materials is becoming more attractive due to health concerns regarding antibiotics. An important feature of a natural material that constitutes a possible alternative methane inhibitor is that the material does not reduce feed intake or digestibility but does enhance propionate that is the major hydrogen sink alternative to methane. Some implications of these approaches| as well as an introduction to antibiotic-alternative natural materials and novel approaches| are provided. 359,2010,3,4,Aboveground and belowground biomass and carbon pools in highland temperate forest landscape in Central Mexico,Temperate forests play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. However| deforestation| land use changes and differences in successional and species composition cause a spatial heterogeneity in the potential carbon storage in the landscape. The aims of this study were (1) to quantify aboveground and belowground biomass and respective carbon storage and (2) to project the future carbon storage in temperate forests landscape in Cofre de Perote| Veracruz| Mexico. Aboveground and belowground biomass was estimated in seven forests with different species composition and conservation status and management| in three grasslands and in two shrublands at a range of altitudes. Total biomass in forests ranged from 91.07 to 383.78 Mg ha(-1)| in grassland from 9.83 to 24.93 Mg ha(-1) and in successional (shrublands) from 6.33 to 7.69 Mg ha(-1). This suggests that deforestation and changes of land use could reduce aboveground biomass by 90 per cent. Mature forests had the largest aboveground and belowground biomass and the lowest density (number of trees per hectare) but a lower potential for accumulation of C in the future; in contrast| young forests and reforested areas had higher growth and carbon storage potential. Our results suggest that avoiding deforestation and improving forest management could play a major role in global climate change mitigation. 11444,2010,4,2,Absorbing aerosols: contribution of biomass burning and implications for radiative forcing,Absorbing aerosols supplements the global warming caused by greenhouse gases. However| unlike greenhouse gases| the effect of absorbing aerosol on climate is not known with certainty owing to paucity of data. Also| uncertainty exists in quantifying the contributing factors whether it is biomass or fossil fuel burning. Based on the observations of absorption coefficient at seven wavelengths and aerosol optical depth (AOD) at five wavelengths carried out at Gadanki (13.5 degrees N| 79.2 degrees E)| a remote village in peninsular India| from April to November 2008| as part of the "Study of Atmospheric Forcing and Responses (SAFAR)" pilot campaign we discuss seasonal variation of black carbon ( BC) concentration and aerosol optical depth. Also| using spectral information we estimate the fraction of fossil-fuel and non-fossil fuel contributions to absorption coefficient and contributions of soot ( Black Carbon)| non-soot fine mode aerosols and coarse mode aerosols to AOD. BC concentration is found to be around 1000 ng/m(3) during monsoon months (JJAS) and around 4000 ng/m(3) during pre and post monsoon months. Non-fossil fuel sources contribute nearly 20% to absorption coefficient at 880 nm| which increases to 40% during morning and evening hours. Average AOD is found to be 0.38 +/- 0.15| with high values in May and low in September. Soot contributes nearly 10% to the AOD. This information is further used to estimate the clear sky aerosol direct radiative forcing. Top of the atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing varies between -4 to 0 W m(-2)| except for April when the forcing is positive. Surface level radiative forcing is between -10 to -20 W m(-2). The net radiation absorbed within the atmosphere is in the range of 9 to 25 W m(-2)| of which soot contributes about 80 to 90%. 10596,2010,4,4,Abundance of narwhals (Monodon monoceros) on the hunting grounds in Greenland,Narwhals (Monodon monoceros L.) occur in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic where for centuries they have been subject to subsistence hunting by Inuit in Greenland and Canada. Scientific advice on the sustainable levels of removals from narwhal populations provides the basis for quotas implemented in both Greenland and Canada. The scientific advice relies heavily on extensive aerial surveys that are the only feasible way to acquire data on narwhal densities and abundance throughout their range. In some areas lack of information on abundance| in combination with high exploitation levels| has caused conservation concerns leading to restrictions on the international trade in narwhal tusks. Narwhals also are regarded as highly sensitive to habitat disturbance caused by global warming. This study analyzed data from aerial sighting surveys covering four major narwhal hunting grounds in Greenland. The surveys were conducted as double observer experiments with 2 independent observation platforms| 1 at the front and 1 at the rear of the survey plane. The sighting data were analyzed using mark recapture distance sampling techniques that allow for correction for whales that were missed by the observers. The surveys also were corrected for animals that were submerged during the passage of the survey plane| using diving and submergence data from satellite-linked time depth recorders deployed on 2 free-ranging narwhals. The abundance of narwhals on the wintering ground in West Greenland in 2006 was 7|819 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4|358-14|029). The abundances of narwhals in Inglefield Bredning and Melville Bay| northwest Greenland in 2007 were 8|368 (95% CI: 5|209-13|442) and 6|024 (95% CI: 1|403-25|860)| respectively. The abundance of narwhals in East Greenland in 2008 was 6|444 (95% CI: 2|505-16|575). These surveys provide the first estimates of narwhal abundance from important hunting areas in East and West Greenland and provide larger and more complete estimates from previously surveyed hunting grounds in Inglefield Bredning. The estimates can be used for setting catch limits for the narwhal harvest in West and East Greenland and as a baseline for examining the effects of climate change on narwhal abundance. DOT: 10.1644/09-MAMM-A-198.1. 10573,2010,4,3,Accelerated human activities affecting the spatial pattern of temperature in the Yangtze River Delta,A zigzag city belt along the Yangtze River and Hangzhou rim has formed in the Yangtze River Delta in China due to the accelerated development of human activities and urbanization. Local climate change in the belt has affected the spatial patterns of surface air temperature (SAT). (1) There exist six major warmer centers with increasing rates of SAT from 0.28 to 0.54 degrees C per decade during 1961-2006 along the belt| namely Yangzhou| Nanjing| Jiangyin| Shanghai| Hangzhou and Ningbo. As the greatest areas of human activities and rapid urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta| Shanghai metropolitan areas have the maximum rates of increases in annual and seasonal mean SAT| which range from 0.23 to 0.50 degrees C per decade| and the strongest urban heat island effects| which are increasing at rates in the range of 0.11-0.15 degrees C per decade. (2) Local warming and urban heat island effects have created the largest and warmest SAT core in the Shanghai metropolitan areas| contributing to spatial pattern changes in SAT over the Yangtze River Delta. The spatial patterns of SAT for 2001-2006 and 1971-2000 significantly differ in the typical latitudinal pattern for 1971-2000 that has changed| mainly in Shanghai metropolitan areas. (3) The annual mean of the regional SAT will increase from 15.4 degrees C in 1961-1990 to 18.5 degrees C in 2071-2100 due to global warming and urban heat island effects according to the IPCC SRES A2 Scenario. This increase is notably higher than the increment of 2.5 degrees C from 15.4 degrees C to 17.9 degrees C due to global warming alone. The spatial distribution of the projected SAT with global warming and urban heat island effects is markedly different from that for global warming alone. In 2071-2100| the Shanghai metropolitan areas will have summer average temperatures of about 30.0-30.5 degrees C| which are higher than summer average temperatures of about 28.7 degrees C that would be expected from global warming alone. Higher average temperatures can have negative implications for energy and water consumption| human health and local ecosystems. The development and implementation of adaptation strategies are important and required by the policy makers from local government and city planning departments. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 10673,2010,2,4,Acclimation of photosystem II to high temperature in two Wedelia species from different geographical origins: implications for biological invasions upon global warming,More intense| more frequent| and longer heat waves are expected in the future due to global warming| which could have dramatic ecological impacts. However| few studies have involved invasive species. The aims of this study were to examine the effect of extreme heating (40/35 degrees C for 30 d) on the growth and photosynthesis of an alien invasive species Wedelia trilobata and its indigenous congener (Wedelia chinensis) in South China| and to determine the development of this invasive species and its potential adaptive mechanism. In comparison with W. chinensis| W. trilobata suffered less inhibition of the relative growth rate (RGR) and biomass production due to high temperature| which was consistent with the changes of photosystem II (PSII) activity and net photosynthetic rate (P(n)). High temperature caused a partial inhibition of PSII| but the adverse effect was more severe in W. chinensis. Measurement of the minimum fluorescence (F(o)) versus temperature curves showed that W. trilobata had a higher inflexion temperature of F(o) (T(i))| indicating greater thermostability of the photosynthetic apparatus. Moreover| comparisons of absorbed light energy partitioning revealed that W. trilobata increased xanthophyll-dependent thermal dissipation (Phi(NPQ)) under high temperature| while retaining the higher fraction of absorbed light allocated to photochemistry (Phi(PSII)) relative to W. chinensis. The results suggest that the invasive W. trilobata has a high thermostability of its photosynthetic apparatus and an effective regulating mechanism in energy partitioning of PSII complexes to minimize potential damage and to retain greater capability for carbon assimilation. These factors confer greater heat stress tolerance compared with the native species. Therefore| the invasive W. trilobata may become more aggressive with the increasingly extreme heat climates. 10853,2010,3,2,Accounting for carbon cycle feedbacks in a comparison of the global warming effects of greenhouse gases,Greenhouse gases other than CO(2) make a significant contribution to human-induced climate change| and multi-gas mitigation strategies are cheaper to implement than those which limit CO(2) emissions alone. Most practical multi-gas mitigation strategies require metrics to relate the climate warming effects of CO(2) and other greenhouse gases. Global warming potential (GWP)| defined as the ratio of time-integrated radiative forcing of a particular gas to that of CO(2) following a unit mass emission| is the metric used in the Kyoto Protocol| and we define mean global temperature change potential (MGTP) as an equivalent metric of the temperature response. Here we show that carbon-climate feedbacks inflate the GWPs and MGTPs of methane and nitrous oxide by similar to 20% in coupled carbon-climate model simulations of the response to a pulse of 50 x 1990 emissions| due to a warming-induced release of CO(2) from the land biosphere and ocean. The magnitude of this effect is expected to be dependent on the model| but it is not captured at all by the analytical models usually used to calculate metrics such as GWP. We argue that the omission of carbon cycle dynamics has led to a low bias of uncertain but potentially substantial magnitude in metrics of the global warming effect of other greenhouse gases| and we suggest that the carbon-climate feedback should be considered when greenhouse gas metrics are calculated and applied. 11241,2010,3,3,Accounting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm Optimization of Water Distribution Systems,Considerable research has been carried out on the optimization of water distribution systems (WDSs) over the last three decades. In previous research| attention has mainly focused on the minimization of cost| due to the high expenditure associated with the construction and maintenance of such systems. However| the impacts of WDSs on the environment usually have not been considered adequately. The recent increasing awareness of sustainability and climate change| especially global warming| has led to research where greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are considered. In the study described in this paper a multiobjective genetic algorithm for WDS optimization has been used as an explorative tool to investigate the trade-offs between the traditional economic objective of minimizing costs and an additional environmental objective of minimizing GHG emissions. The impacts of minimizing GHG emissions on the results of WDS optimization have been explored for a case study in this paper. The results indicate that the inclusion of GHG emission minimization as one of the objectives results in significant trade-offs between the economic and environmental objectives. Furthermore| a sensitivity analysis has been conducted by using different discount rates in a present value analysis for computing both ongoing costs and GHG emissions. The results obtained show that the Pareto-optimal front is very sensitive to the discount rates used. As a result| the selection of discount rates has a significant impact on final decision making. 11526,2010,3,4,Accumulation of Soil Carbon and Phosphorus Contents of a Rehabilitated Forest,The world's tropical rainforests are decreasing at an alarming rate as they are converted to agricultural land| pasture| and plantations. Decreasing tropical forests affect global warming. As a result| afforestation progams have been suggested to mitigate this problem. The objective of this study was to determine the carbon and phosphorus accumulation of a rehabilitated forest of different ages. The size of the study area was 47.5 ha. Soil samples were collected from the 0-| 6-| 12-| and 17-year-old rehabilitated forest. Twenty samples were taken randomly with a soil auger at depths of 0-20 and 20-40 cm. The procedures outlined in the Materials and Methods section were used to analyze the soil samples for pH| total C| organic matter| total P| C/P ratio| yield of humic acid (HA)| and cation exchange capacity (CEC). The soil pH decreased significantly with increasing age of forest rehabilitation regardless of depth. Age did not affect CEC of the rehabilitated forest. Soil organic matter (SOM)| total C| and total P contents increased with age. However| C/P ratio decreased with time at 0-20 cm. Accumulation of HA with time and soil depth was not consistent. The rehabilitated forest has shown signs of being a C and P sink. 645,2010,2,4,Adapt or disperse: understanding species persistence in a changing world,The majority of studies on environmental change focus on the response of single species and neglect fundamental biotic interactions| such as mutualism| competition| predation| and parasitism| which complicate patterns of species persistence. Under global warming| disruption of community interactions can arise when species differ in their sensitivity to rising temperature| leading to mismatched phenologies and/or dispersal patterns. To study species persistence under global climate change| it is critical to consider the ecology and evolution of multispecies interactions; however| the sheer number of potential interactions makes a full study of all interactions unfeasible. One mechanistic approach to solving the problem of complicated community context to global change is to (i) define strategy groups of species based on life-history traits| trophic position| or location in the ecosystem| (ii) identify species involved in key interactions within these groups| and (iii) determine from the interactions of these key species which traits to study in order to understand the response to global warming. We review the importance of multispecies interactions looking at two trait categories: thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate and associated life-history traits and dispersal traits of species. A survey of published literature shows pronounced and consistent differences among trophic groups in thermal sensitivity of life-history traits and in dispersal distances. Our approach increases the feasibility of unraveling such a large and diverse set of community interactions| with the ultimate goal of improving our understanding of community responses to global warming. 10949,2010,4,2,Adaptation of agricultural crop production to climate change: A policy framework for Sri Lanka,Agriculture is one of the key sectors of the Sri Lankan economy| which contributes a significant percentage to its gross domestic product (GDP) and provides direct or indirect employment to a sizeable proportion of its population. Climate change involves long-term slow changes in climate| short-term year-to-year climatic variability and unpredictable extreme climatic events. Agriculture| especially crop production| is highly dependent on the prevailing weather conditions and therefore is highly sensitive to climate change| both short-term and long-term. Almost all General Circulation Models predict that the processes of climate change such as increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and global warming will continue well into the 21(st) century even If the mitigation measures to minimize the causes of climate change exert maximum effect. Therefore| it is imperative that a well-co-ordinated and sustained effort is set in motion to increase the capacity of Sri Lankan agriculture to adapt to short and long-term climate change. Adaptation involves measures to minimize the impacts of climate change. At present| implementation of climate change adaptation measures in Sri Lanka is piecemeal and lacks co-ordination and direction. Hence| a clear policy framework identifying the measures to be pursued and the roles of different stakeholders is needed for allocating and channelling the necessary financial and human resources for successful adaptation to climate change. A clear and comprehensive policy framework also becomes the basis for development of an effective road map and an action plan to achieve successful adaptation. This paper discusses a policy framework for adaptation of Sri Lankan agriculture to climate change based on the following components: (a) Quantification and forecasting of climate change; (b) Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to climate change; (c) Identification and formulation of responses to adapt to climate change; (d) Creating and strengthening the institutional framework and infrastructure to implement and monitor adaptation measures to climate change. Major advances in scientific research on components a| b and c| both locally and internationally| are briefly discussed and key policy measures to facilitate and accelerate their progress along with the relevant stakeholders are identified. Importance of allocating adequate resources to promote research on all aspects of climate change and their impacts by developing infrastructure| a critical mass of experts and an institutional framework to effectively link all stakeholders to channel the formulated adaptation measures to the farming communities at the grass-root level are emphasized. 669,2010,2,4,ADAPTATION STRATEGY TO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE,In the context of discussed global climate change the emphasis is placed mainly on the adaptability of the water management methodology at present time. Therefore a questionnaire inquiry oriented to the perception of the climate change impact and current state of adaptation strategies implementation was carried out and evaluated. The research was realised among the water management experts in six large transboundary basins: Elbe| Rhine| Guadiana| Amudaria| Orange and Nile. The questionnaire was divided into six parts concerning for example: expected climate change impacts| adaptation measures| drivers for development of adaptation strategy| adaptation barriers etc. Responses were evaluated with rating and the dominant answers and lists of priority were established. Results were evaluated looking for overall conclusions in all or almost all regions| as well as conclusions for each region. The main benefit of the research lies in the evaluation based principally on the opinions of policy makers| stakeholders and water managers in the river basins not on the climate scenarios. The outcomes have proved understanding of the climate change impact issue over all six basins| only the approach to adaptation is partly different. The historical development of water management in the basin influences the perception as well. 10416,2010,3,2,Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?,Scientific experts have confirmed that anthropogenic warming is underway| and some degree of adaptation is now unavoidable. However| the details of impacts on the scale of climate change at which humans would have to prepare for and adjust to them are still the subject of considerable research| inquiry| and debate. Planning for adaptation requires information on the scale over which human organizations and institutions have authority and capacity| yet the general circulation models lack forecasting skill at these scales| and attempts to "downscale" climate models are still in the early stages of development. Because we do not know what adaptations will be required| we cannot say whether they will be harder or easier-more expensive or less-than emissions control. Whatever improvements in regional predictive capacity may come about in the future| the lack of current predictive capacity on the relevant scale is a strong argument for why we must both control greenhouse gas emissions and prepare to adapt. 11078,2010,2,3,Addressing heterogeneities in climate change studies for water resources in Korea,Without exception| global warming affects the water resources in Korea. Several climate change projects have been initiated for future water resources assessment but have produced very different projections with a significant range of heterogeneities. Therefore| it is necessary to develop a standard procedure and scheme that can reduce this heterogeneity. In this study| we first examine all general circulation model (GCM) scenarios available at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre. The six A1B GCM scenarios are then selected (such as INM| CCCma| MPI_MIUB| UKMO| NIES and NCAR) for a climate change assessment of water resources in Korea. A modified version of a reliability ensemble average (M-REA) has been proposed as a multi-model ensemble weighting scheme that can combine the heterogeneous scenarios. When applied to the six A1B GCM scenarios| M-REA projected that Korea on an average will experience a 9.43% increase in precipitation in the year 2037. 540,2010,4,4,Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) and Monitoring Global Environmental Change,The Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) was developed for detailed observation of the Earth's surface and frequent monitoring of global environmental changes| using high-resolution optical (visible and near infrared push-broom) and active microwave sensors (L-band synthetic aperture radar). ALOS has four mission objectives: cartography| regional observations| disaster observations| and resource exploration. It has been operational since its launch in January 24| 2006| and is acquiring a large amount of land-surface data supported by the Ka-band intersatellite communication system that down-links to ground receiving stations. A global systematic acquisition strategy is implemented for all three sensors to enable consistent data collection over all land areas on a repetitive basis. Through its three sensors| acquisition strategy| and communication infrastructure| the ALOS mission is aimed to contribute to monitoring water| carbon| and global climate change. In this paper| we describe ALOS and its contribution to global environmental monitoring. 348,2010,5,4,Aerosol size confines climate response to volcanic super-eruptions,Extremely large volcanic eruptions have been linked to global climate change| biotic turnover| and| for the Younger Toba Tuff (YTT) eruption 74|000 years ago| near-extinction of modern humans. One of the largest uncertainties of the climate effects involves evolution and growth of aerosol particles. A huge atmospheric concentration of sulfate causes higher collision rates| larger particle sizes| and rapid fall out| which in turn greatly affects radiative feedbacks. We address this key process by incorporating the effects of aerosol microphysical processes into an Earth System Model. The temperature response is shorter (9-10 years) and three times weaker (-3.5 K at maximum globally) than estimated before| although cooling could still have reached -12 K in some midlatitude continental regions after one year. The smaller response| plus its geographic patchiness| suggests that most biota may have escaped threshold extinction pressures from the eruption. Citation: Timmreck| C.| H.-F. Graf| S. J. Lorenz| U. Niemeier| D. Zanchettin| D. Matei| J. H. Jungclaus| and T. J. Crowley (2010)| Aerosol size confines climate response to volcanic super-eruptions| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L24705| doi: 10.1029/2010GL045464. 10583,2010,2,4,Allelopathic Effects of Water Hyacinth [Eichhornia crassipes],Eichhornia crassipes (Mart) Solms is an invasive weed known to out-compete native plants and negatively affect microbes including phytoplankton. The spread and population density of E. crassipes will be favored by global warming. The aim here was to identify compounds that underlie the effects on microbes. The entire plant of E. crassipes was collected from El Zomor canal| River Nile (Egypt)| washed clean| then air dried. Plant tissue was extracted three times with methanol and fractionated by thin layer chromatography (TLC). The crude methanolic extract and five fractions from TLC (A-E) were tested for antimicrobial (bacteria and fungal) and anti-algal activities (green microalgae and cyanobacteria) using paper disc diffusion bioassay. The crude extract as well as all five TLC fractions exhibited antibacterial activities against both the Gram positive bacteria; Bacillus subtilis and Streptococcus faecalis; and the Gram negative bacteria; Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus. Growth of Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus niger were not inhibited by either E. crassipes crude extract nor its five fractions. In contrast| Candida albicans (yeast) was inhibited by all. Some antialgal activity of the crude extract and its fractions was manifest against the green microalgae; Chlorella vulgaris and Dictyochloropsis splendida as well as the cyanobacteria; Spirulina platensis and Nostoc piscinale. High antialgal activity was only recorded against Chlorella vulgaris. Identifications of the active antimicrobial and antialgal compounds of the crude extract as well as the five TLC fractions were carried out using gas chromatography combined with mass spectroscopy. The analyses showed the presence of an alkaloid (fraction A) and four phthalate derivatives (Fractions B-E) that exhibited the antimicrobial and antialgal activities. 10533,2010,2,4,Alpine and Subalpine Vegetation Chronosequences following Deglaciation in Coastal Alaska,Glacial recession is a major process in terrestrial ecosystems of the world and an obvious result of global warming Here we describe the alpine (above tree line) and subalpine forested and wetland/peatland vegetation chronosequences in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve| Alaska We derived the results from three products (1) 4 deglaciation map of 50|000-| 13|000| and 1 to 246-year-old (Neoglacial) surfaces| (2) a landcover map| and (3) a plant association classification For the alpine chronosequence| Neoglactal surfaces are dominated by the tall shrub (>1 5 m) (Alnus and Salix)| dwarf shrub (<0 1 m) (Salix and Dryas)| and mesic herbaceous landcover classes These landcover classes also dominate the 13|000- and 50|000-year-old surfaces but dwarf shrub dominance changes to ericaceous The subalpine forested chronosequence consists of Populus balsamifera ssp trichocarpa and Picea sitchensis classes dominating the mid- and late seral Neoglacial surfaces| then Tsuga mertensiana and Picea sitchensis classes dominating the 13|000- and 50|000-year-old surfaces Wetlands/peatlands are rare on the Neoglacial and 13|000-year-old surfaces but common on the 50|000-year-old surface Alnus is rare on the 50|000-year-old surface yet common on the 13|000-year-old surface and| we speculate| is a relict from the end of the Pleistocene 10928,2010,2,4,Alpine Taxa Exhibit Differing Responses to Climate Warming in the Snowy Mountains of Australia,The phenologies of plants and animals in snow-covered landscapes are expected to accelerate with global warming. However| there are few studies that have examined a range of unrelated taxa in alpine environments to determine whether there is commonality in the proximate causes| synchrony in timing| or the direction of any changes. Records for five alpine animal species and two alpine plant species| chosen primarily for their visibility| were examined to determine their temporal response to regional climate warming. Over the 30-year period studied| they showed an array of different phenological responses. Plant flowering appeared linked to date of snow melt| whereas animal responses varied. Although having accelerated phenologies| two migratory bird species exhibited contrary changes; one to low-altitude warming regardless of snow conditions in the alpine zone (flame robin) and the other to state of the snowpack regardless of low-altitude temperatures (Richard's pipit). By contrast| the migratory bogong moth arrived significantly later over the years with no apparent explanatory climatic cause. Although bogong moths are not responding to earlier snow melt| insectivorous predators on the ground are. This could lead to a serious mismatch in timing at different trophic levels| putting pressure on endangered vertebrates. Emergence of locally wintering insect species| March flies and Macleay's swallowtails| were not significantly related to measured climatic parameters over the study period. A consequence of the disparate responses to climate warming recorded here is the questionable value of 'indicator species' to examine the impact of climate warming on alpine ecosystems. 720,2010,2,4,Alteration of soil fertility and irrigated maize and wheat vulnerability due to climate change.,Estimation of agricultural crop vulnerability to global climate change has usually been made for rainfed crops without taking into account soil fertility alteration as a result of climate change. The main objective of this paper is to assess the role of the integrated soil fertility index modification in calculations of maize and wheat grain productivity in various irrigation districts in Mexico. The methodology to predict the alteration of some irrigated soil properties and integrated fertility index due to climate change has been developed. The results show that in Mexico| irrigated soil is less sensitive to climate change than rainfed agricultural soil and non-agricultural (virgin) soils| and it does not affect irrigated crop vulnerability to climate change significantly. The main effect of soil fertility alteration in estimations of irrigated crop vulnerability is expected in semiarid| semi-humid and humid tropical Mexican zones| where dimensionless mean annual radiative index of dryness IHT is less than 2.5. 579,2010,2,4,Altitude Effects of Climatic Variation on Tibetan Plateau and Its Vicinities,High topographies| such as the Tibetan plateau (TP) in China| have been considered as the sensitive areas in response to global climate change. By analyzing the relationship between warming structure and altitude (1 000-5 000 m) in the TP and its vicinities using the 46-year January mean observed temperature data| we found that there was a significant altitude effect of temperature warming onset time (mutation time) on the plateau and the neighboring regions: the higher the altitude| the later the climate warming happens| and vice versa. There also seems a slight altitude effect on warming magnitude: the higher the altitude| the less the warming magnitude. Therefore| the temperature warming in the high altitude area of the TP (below 5 000 m) responds to global warming less sensitively than the low-altitude neighboring areas both in onset time and magnitude| which may be mainly caused by high albedo and large thermal capacity of the ice/snow cover on the higher part of the plateau and possible heat island effect in the lower part of the plateau. 10998,2010,2,2,An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress,Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts| it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress| quantified by the wet-bulb temperature T(W)| is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. T(W) never exceeds 31 degrees C. Any exceedence of 35 degrees C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals| as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now| it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 degrees C| calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11-12 degrees C warming| such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 degrees C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record. 10610,2010,3,3,An Analysis of Liquid CO(2) Drop Formation with and without Hydrate Formation in Static Mixers,The formation process of CO(2) drops in various types of Kenics Static Mixers was analyzed from the perspective of energy dissipation in the mixer| focusing on the formation of drop surfaces. Experimental studies on CO(2) drop formation were conducted under varying temperatures| pressure| and flow rates| with and without hydrate formation. Analysis of the CO(2) drop size and distribution at several locations within the static mixer was conducted| as of pressure drop in the mixer| to determine dissipation energies. In all the experimental conditions| by considering the surface energy for hydrate formation| the energy required for the formation of CO(2) drops correlated well with total energy dissipation by mixer flow| which is represented by a pressure drop along the mixer. This process has important applications to the formation of liquid CO(2) for ocean disposal as a countermeasure to global warming. (C) 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J| 56: 2706-2716| 2010 11194,2010,2,4,An Analysis of Respiratory Activity| Q(10)| and Microbial Community Composition of Soils from High and Low Tussock Sites at Toolik| Alaska,High latitude microbial communities| incurring increased global warming| are a potential major source of respiratory CO(2) contributing to an enhanced greenhouse effect. Data on respiration and microbial density are presented for a moist| high tussock site compared with a low| water saturated site. The density of bacteria and eukaryotic microbes was nearly equivalent at both sites and potentially could yield substantial release of respiratory CO(2) with continued warming. Respiratory rates for soil from the high site were greater than the low. The Q(10) of 2.4 for the high tussock sample was approximately 1.3 x that of the low site sample (Q(10) of 1.7). 10461,2010,2,4,An Analysis of the Effect of Global Warming on the Intensity of Atlantic Hurricanes Using a GCM with Statistical Refinement,A statistical intensity adjustment is utilized to extract information from tropical cyclone simulations in a 50 km resolution global model A simple adjustment based on the modeled and observed probability distribution of storm lifetime maximum wind speed allows the model to capture the differences between ob served intensity distributions in active/inactive year composites from the 1981-2008 period in the North Atlantic This intensity adjustment is then used to examine the atmospheric model s responses to different sea surface temperature anomalies generated by coupled models for the late twenty first century In the North Atlantic all simulations produce a reduction in the total number of cyclones but with large intermodel spread in the magnitude of the reduction The intensity response is positively correlated with changes in frequency across the ensemble However there is on average an increase in intensity in these simulations despite the mean reduction in frequency The authors argue that it is useful to decompose these intensity changes into two parts an increase in intensity that is intrinsic to the climate change experiments and a change in intensity positively correlated with frequency just as in the active/inactive historical composites By isolating the intrinsic component which is relatively independent of the details of the SST warming pattern an increase is found in storm lifetime maximum winds of 5-10 m s(-1) for storms with intensities of 30-60 m s(-1) by the end of the twenty first century The effects of change in frequency which are dependent on the details of the spatial structure of the warming must then be superimposed on this intrinsic change 10829,2010,3,4,An application of life cycle assessment (LCA) within the Catalonian building sector: A case study,Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) tool has been applied to evaluate environmental impacts through the whole building life cycle. LCA has been carried out in accordance to the international standard of ISO 14040 and ISO 14044. As a reference| an application of LCA has been made to a Catalan house located in Barcelona| Spain with a projected 50 years life span. In this work| construction| use (operation and maintenance) and end-of-life phases have been considered. The operational energy consumed during the dwelling period was modeled using a mix of electrical power for electrical appliances| illumination| heating and cooling; and using thermal energy from natural gas for domestic hot water and cooking. Result shows that the highest environmental impacts during the dwelling's life cycle took place during the use phase. The total impact of global warming potential was 4.52+01 kgCO(2)-Equiv. m(-2)a(-1) of which use phase accounted for 92% (operation 90% and maintenance 2%)| construction represented 7% and end-of-life contributed less than 1%. Regarding the operation phase| cooling had the highest environmental burden with 33%| heating represented 9%| followed by illumination 26% and electrical appliances 19%. The other two household activities accounted for less than 12% (domestic hot water 9% and cooking 4%) of total phase. During the construction phase| the production of building materials represented about 97%| transport to the job site 2% and waste management 1% of total phase. The total primary energy demand was 5.26E+01 MJ m(-2) a(-1) (gross calorific value) of which non-renewable primary energy demand represents 78% and renewable energy demand 22%. In summary| data for a Catalan home has been provided to evaluate environmental impacts using LCA tool. Data have been modelled into the Gabi software system. Finally| LCA is a suitable tool to evaluate environmental impacts throughout all phases of the building life cycle.
11335,2010,2,3,An assessment of global and regional climate change based on the EH5OM climate model ensemble,An analysis of climate change for global domain and for the European/Mediterranean region between the two periods| 1961-1990 (representing the twentieth century or "present" climate) and 2041-2070 (representing future climate)| from the three-member ensemble of the EH5OM climate model under the IPCC A2 scenario was performed. Ensemble averages for winter and summer seasons were considered| but also intra-ensemble variations and the change of interannual variability between the two periods. First| model systematic errors are assessed because they could be closely related to uncertainties in climate change. A strengthening of westerlies (zonalization) over the northern Europe is associated with an erroneous increase in MSLP over the southern Europe. This increase in MSLP is related to a (partial) suppression of summer convective precipitation. Global warming in future climate is relatively uniform in the upper troposphere and it is associated with a 10% wind increase in the subtropical jet cores. However| spatial irregularities in the low-level temperature signal single out some regions as particularly sensitive to climate change. For Europe| the largest near-surface temperature increase in winter is found over its north-eastern part (more than 3A degrees C)| and the largest summer warming (over 3.5A degrees C) is over south Europe. For south Europe| the increase in temperature averages is almost an order of magnitude larger than the increase in interannual variability. The magnitude of the warming is larger than the model systematic error| and the spread among the three model realisations is much smaller than the magnitude of climate change. This further supports the significance of estimated future temperature change. However| this is not the case for precipitation| implying therefore larger uncertainties for precipitation than for temperature in future climate projections. 10645,2010,2,4,An assessment of the current and future thermal regimes of three streams located in the Wenatchee River basin| Washington State: some implications for regional river basin systems,We examine summer temperature patterns in the Wenatchee River and two of its major tributaries Icicle and Nason Creeks| located in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Through model simulations we evaluate the cooling effects of mature riparian vegetation corridors along the streams and potential increases due to global warming for the 2020s-2080s time horizons. Site potential shade influences are smaller in the mainstream due to its relatively large size and reduced canopy density in the lower reaches| proving a modest reduction of about 0.3A degrees C of the stream length average daily maximum temperature| compared with 1.5A degrees C and 2.8A degrees C in Icicle and Nason Creeks. Assuming no changes in riparian vegetation shade| stream length-average daily maximum temperature could increase in the Wenatchee River from 1-1.2A degrees C by the 2020s to 2A degrees C in the 2040s and 2.5-3.6A degrees C in the 2080s| reaching 27-30A degrees C in the warmest reaches. The cooling effects from the site potential riparian vegetation are likely to be offset by the climate change effects in the Wenatchee River by the 2020s. Buffers of mature riparian vegetation along the banks of the tributaries could prevent additional water temperature increases associated with climate change. By the end of the century| assuming site potential shade| the tributaries could have a thermal condition similar to today's condition which has less shade. In the absence of riparian vegetation restoration| at typical summer low flows| stream length average daily mean temperatures could reach about 16.4-17A degrees C by the 2040s with stream length average daily maxima around 19.5-20.6A degrees C| values that can impair or eliminate salmonid rearing and spawning. Modeled increases in stream temperature due to global warming are determined primarily by the projected reductions in summer streamflows| and to a lesser extent by the increases in air temperature. The findings emphasize the importance of riparian vegetation restoration along the smaller tributaries| to prevent future temperature increases and preserve aquatic habitat. 11244,2010,4,4,An empirical model for estimating aquatic invertebrate respiration,1. The role of metazoan respiration in aquatic system energetics has been neglected to some extent| particularly because limited resources hamper the simultaneous determination of individual respiration rates across many taxa. As global warming will affect poikilotherm metabolism on an ecosystem scale| we need versatile models to estimate respiration from 'easy-to-obtain' parameters. 2. Artificial neural networks were trained to estimate mass specific respiration of aquatic metazoans from 28 parameters: temperature| water depth| 19 taxon categories| body mass and 6 lifestyle parameters. The data base includes 22 920 data sets referring to 915 taxa (836 identified to species| 67 to genus| 12 to higher taxon) from 452 different sources. 3. Overall model fit is good (R(2) = 0.847)| but there is considerable residual variability of up to two orders of magnitude. 4. Variability of same species measurements between sources is almost as large as same-source variability between species| i.e. a substantial part of the residual variability in the data may represent methodical bias. 5. There are no universally valid scaling factors in the relationships of respiration to body mass and temperature| but a wide range of species-specific factors. 6. The model has been implemented in a Microsoft EXCEL spreadsheet that is available at http://www.thomas-brey/science/virtualhandbook. 699,2010,4,4,An experimental test of well-described vegetation patterns across slope aspects using woodland herb transplants and manipulated abiotic drivers,P>The ubiquitous transition of plant communities across slope aspects is a well-described| but rarely tested| ecological dynamic. Aspect position is often used as a proxy for microclimate changes in moisture| light and temperature| but these abiotic drivers are seldom decoupled and very rarely manipulated across slope aspects. To investigate the mechanisms and demographic stages driving the observed distribution patterns of two woodland herbs in the southeastern USA| seeds and adults were transplanted across north- and south-facing slopes| and moisture and light were experimentally manipulated. Stage- and species-specific abiotic responses resulted in similar landscape-level patterning for Hexastylis arifolia and Hepatica nobilis| but the underlying abiotic drivers were unique. Adult rather than seed survival best explained the natural distributions across slope aspects| and Hexastylis arifolia was limited by higher temperature| whereas Hepatica nobilis was limited by lower soil moisture. The stage- and species-specific responses indicated that the use of slope aspect to explain plant distributions not only obfuscates explanatory mechanisms| but probably undermines the portability of results. As abiotic drivers| not topographical proxies| are projected to shift with global climate change| distribution research requires direct abiotic data in association with key demographic stages rather than topographical proxies. 11151,2010,2,4,An increase in the upper tree-limit of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) in the Alps since the mid-20th century: A land-use change phenomenon,Global environmental changes observed during recent decades are likely to have had an impact on the distribution of species. Currently| silver fir (Abies alba) is becoming established in the subalpine forests of the west central Alps at elevations higher than 2000 m a.s.l.; prior to the 1970s its upper altitudinal limit was 2000 m. Several hypotheses could explain this recent expansion of the upper tree-limit. Silver fir regeneration could be linked (1) to land-use changes or (2) to current climatic warming. Using dendrochronology| the age structure of 31 forest plots containing at least one silver fir was examined in order to elucidate the population dynamics of subalpine communities. This allowed us to decipher the timing of fir regeneration in relation to the mean age of the stands examined and of the other tree-canopy species present. The majority of the firs germinated sporadically since 1950| before the regional temperature increase. The pattern of fir recruitment did not appear to relate to altitude| but followed a pattern characteristic of secondary succession. The age structures identified showed an exponential increase in tree-density during the 20th century; the stands were first dominated by Larix decidua during the 18th and 19th centuries| and then by Pinus cembra during the 20th century. In most stands| fir regeneration occurred after Larix and before P. cembra dominated| following a similar pattern to Picea abies regeneration. The number of local inhabitants and temperature both exhibited a negative relationship with fir tree recruitment| thus supporting the land-use change hypothesis. There has been a significant upward shift of the altitudinal range of fir| amounting to an increase of about 300 m since 1950. This followed the abandonment of low-productivity land. This trend is likely to continue during the 21st century| because of new agricultural and forestry practices which involve limited intervention in low-productivity areas and may be because of the effects of global warming. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10555,2010,3,4,An input-output approach for the efficient design of sustainable goods and services,Purpose We propose a prescriptive framework to support environmentally conscious decision making in the design of goods and services. The framework bridges recent applications of input-output analysis to conduct environmental life cycle assessment (LCA)| with seminal work in production economics. In the latter| product design| production planning| and scheduling problems are frequently formulated as input-output models with substitution| and subsequently analyzed and solved as linear programs. The use of linear programming provides an appealing theory and computational framework to support decision making| as well as to conduct sensitivity analysis Methods In this paper| we explore the benefits of integrating LCA within a linear programming (LP) framework and present a case study where we consider a hypothetical advertiser located in the Chicago Metropolitan Area| who wishes to allocate a predetermined budget to place ads in either the print or online versions of a high-circulation| local newspaper. We formulate the problem of finding an advertising strategy that minimizes global warming potential (GWP)| subject to demand and budget constraints. We then solve the problem and evaluate the optimal strategy in terms of discharges of component greenhouse gases| and in terms of requirements imposed on various energy sources. We also analyze the sensitivity of the optimal advertising strategy (and associated global warming potential) to perturbations in the model parameters and constraints. Results and discussion By embedding LCA within an LP formulation| we are able to examine the relationships between economic and environmental factors inherent within decisions to use specific products or services. Specifically| the advertiser finds that each strategy contains tradeoffs among and between environmental and monetary costs. A disaggregate comparison of greenhouse gas release and energy consumption among strategies highlights the variation between these factors and the potential dangers of aggregation. Sensitivity analysis gives us marginal costs (per dollar and per person) of GWP in the optimal solution. These and other managerial insights presented highlight the complex tradeoffs necessary for environmentally conscious| sustainable decision making. 10628,2010,3,4,Analysis of steel production in Thailand: Environmental impacts and solutions,Steels were the upstream of various products. The environmental performance of steel can affect those of the downstream products. In this work| environmental impacts of individual steels| i.e. slab| hot-rolled| cold-rolled| hot-dipped galvanized| and electro-galvanized steels| were studied| via life cycle assessment. The impact assessment methods of IPCC 2007 GWP 100a and Eco-indicator 99 (H) were used to cover the impact categories of Global warming potential| Fossil fuels| Ecotoxicity| Minerals| Carcinogens| and Respiratory inorganics. In all categories| the slab showed the lowest impacts and the hot-dipped galvanized steel showed the highest impacts. The main causes of the impacts were attributed to these inputs: steel| energy| and zinc. The emissions from steel production plants showed relatively low impacts. Small amount of zinc input can cause huge environmental impacts. The impacts of Fossil fuels| Minerals| and Ecotoxicity| of 1-kg zinc were 2.9| 116.9| and 39.6 times of those caused by 1-kg cold-rolled steel| respectively. The reduction of zinc consumption and the improvement of zinc production process| in terms of reduction of heavy metal emissions| could largely improve environmental performance of the galvanized steels. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10854,2010,3,3,Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts-a snapshot of dissonant ambitions,This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with a reduced complexity climate model| yielding global temperature increase and atmospheric CO(2) and CO(2)-equivalent concentrations. Provisions for banked surplus emission allowances and credits from land use| land-use change and forestry are assessed and are shown to have the potential to lead to significant deterioration of the ambition levels implied by the pledges in 2020. This analysis demonstrates that the Copenhagen Accord and the pledges made under it represent a set of dissonant ambitions. The ambition level of the current pledges for 2020 and the lack of commonly agreed goals for 2050 place in peril the Accord's own ambition: to limit global warming to below 2 degrees C| and even more so for 1.5 degrees C| which is referenced in the Accord in association with potentially strengthening the long-term temperature goal in 2015. Due to the limited level of ambition by 2020| the ability to limit emissions afterwards to pathways consistent with either the 2 or 1.5 degrees C goal is likely to become less feasible. 12675,2010,3,3,ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION IN BIOMASS TO ENERGY STRATEGIES AND REGULATIONS IN SPAIN,Global warming is one of the most serious challenges facing humankind as it has the potential to dramatically modify the living conditions of future generations. In order to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases| most countries are implementing regulations aimed at reducing their dependence on fossil fuels| promoting energy efficiency practices and favoring the deployment of low carbon energy technologies| including renewable energy sources. In line with the international commitments assumed as a member of the European Union (EU) and also as a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol| Spain developed a National Plan for Renewable Energies (PER 2005-2010) that forms the basis of the national strategy in this field. Spain has often been cited as an example for the rapid growth in the use of low carbon energy technologies. However| despite significant progress in the last decade| Spain is far from meeting the national objectives set in PER primarily due to slow growth in the demand for biofuels and the limited success of biomass fired power plants. The evolution in other energy technologies has been faster| situating Spain as world a leader in solar and wind energy. However| the contribution of these technologies to the national consumption is very marginal. In the midst of intense regulatory| commercial and R&D activity| this paper analyses the current situation with respect to the production of renewable energies in Spain| focusing primarily on the use of biomass resources. The paper offers a general view of policy and regulatory background| illustrates current progress towards meeting national objectives and provides a brief description of representative projects and market activity in biofuel production and biomass valorization. 10750,2010,4,1,Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series,Global warming is the observed increase of the average temperature of the Earth. The primary cause of this phenomenon is the release of the greenhouse gases by burning of fossil fuels| land cleaning| agriculture| among others| leading to the increase of the so-called greenhouse effect. An approach to deal with this important problem is the time series analysis. In this regard| different techniques can be applied to evaluate the global warming dynamics. This kind of analysis allows one to make better predictions increasing our comprehension of the phenomenon. This article applies nonlinear tools to analyze temperature time series establishing state space reconstruction and prediction. Since noise contamination is unavoidable in data acquisition| it is important to employ robust techniques. The method of delay coordinates is employed for state space reconstruction and delay parameters are evaluated using the method of average mutual information and the method of false nearest neighbors. Afterwards| the simple nonlinear prediction method is employed to estimate temperatures of the future. Temperature time series from different places of the planet are used. Initially| the approach is verified considering known parts of the time series and afterwards| results are extrapolated for future values estimating temperature until 2028. Results show that these techniques are interesting to estimate temperature time history| presenting coherent estimations. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10470,2010,2,4,Analysis of the relationships between climate variability and grapevine phenology in the Nobile di Montepulciano wine production area,Climate represents one of the main inputs necessary for plants to complete their vegetative-productive cycle| having a direct effect on the onset and duration of phenological stages and development of crops. Equally important are its indirect effects| affecting field operations such as the application of fertilizer| pruning and crop protection| finally determining the yield. In the present study| phenological stages of the Sangiovese grapevine for the production of Nobile di Montepulciano wine were analysed and related to historical series of meteorological information (since 1970 in Tuscany| Italy). Weather conditions were described through large-scale meteorological information; in particular geopotential height at the 500 hPa level (500 hPa GPH) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index were considered. All data were provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (NOAA-CIRES) Climate Diagnostics Center| Boulder| Colorado| USA| available from the NOAA-CIRES website (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/) and processed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis Project. Conventional meteorological data| such as air temperature and cumulated rainfall| from ground weather stations were also used. The effects of meteorological parameters on crop phenology (bud-break| flowering and harvest time) were investigated by means of regression analysis| while teleconnections between phenological data and large-scale meteo-climatological data were analysed through correlation maps created using the interactive plotting and analysis link from the NOAA-CIRES website (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov). All correlations were calculated on a monthly to a multi-monthly basis| and also in relation to the different physiological stages of the crop| from 1970 to 2006. The climate change and variability impact on the crop was investigated by trend analysis of meteorological information and its effect on the onset of grapevine phenological stages. The results demonstrated that large-scale meteorological information has a significant effect on the onset of the phenological stages of grapevine. In particular| winter NAO was negatively correlated with bud-break and flowering dates| while GPH of February-March| March-May and May-September were negatively correlated with bud-break| flowering and harvest dates| respectively. The trend analysis demonstrated that the change and variability of climate| due to global warming| directly affects the development of grapevine leading to an anticipation of all considered phenophases. 625,2010,2,4,Analyzing qualitative and quantitative changes in coastal wetland associated to the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors in a part of Tianjin| China,Natural and anthropogenic factors in coastal wetland changes are widely discussed in wetland studies. Previous literatures have demonstrated that many factors may cause wetland change and argued that the global climate change and nutrient enrichment may become the most important ones in the next 50 years. Through field investigation| with the help of remote sensing technology and geographic information system| this research discusses the wetland change in Tianjin under the great pressure of rapid economic development| population growth| and sea-level rising. These findings include: (1) the wetland area expanded from 466.50 km(2) to 658.38 km(2) between 1987 and 1998| but it shrank to 550.5 km(2) by the year of 2006. (2) The results show that the groundwater has not been contaminated while the surface water has been polluted. (3) The questionnaire survey shows that the social environment in some specific ways impedes the protection of natural reserve. In order to achieve the harmony between human and nature| feasible countermeasures on how to keep ecological balance should be immediately taken. Consequently| natural conservation and sustainable economic development will be realized. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10622,2010,2,4,Annual and seasonal variations of Q(10) soil respiration in the sub-alpine forests of the Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau| China,The annual and seasonal variations in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Rs) were assessed through continuous measurements during the 2004-2006 growing seasons using chamber-based techniques in two sub-alpine forest ecosystems in the Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau| China. The study sites were 40-year-old spruce plantations (Picea asperata) (FSPF) and Faxon Fir Primary Forest (FPF). Our results showed that Q(10)| regardless of site origin| exhibited a strong seasonal and annual variation pattern| and decreased with soil temperature increase. Estimated Q(10) values ranged between 1.16 and 24.3. The maximum| annual| mean Q(10) values remained consistent over 3 years| while the highest Qio values (7.01 in FSPF and 6.39 in FPF) occurred in 2005 (for all sites). There was no significant difference observed among Q(10) values between the two forest types in each year (2004-2006) (p = 0.07). Q(10) values were fitted well with data of soil temperature using linear regression models| while the correlation between Q(10) and soil moisture was not significant (p > 0.1). This study suggested that soil temperature was the dominant factor influencing Qio values| while soil moisture was a potential contributor to the annual and seasonal variations of Qm in a sub-alpine forest. Due to the complexity of correlation between Rs and soil moisture| Q(10) values derived from annual and seasonal patterns of Rs should be used with caution when predicting future soil CO(2) emissions under conditions of global warming. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 646,2010,2,4,Annual wood production in a tropical rain forest in NE Costa Rica linked to climatic variation but not to increasing CO(2),Increased atmospheric [CO(2)] could theoretically lead to increased forest productivity ('CO(2) fertilization'). This mechanism was hypothesized as a possible explanation for biomass increases reported from tropical forests in the last 30+ years. We used unique long-term records of annually measured stands (eighteen 0.5 ha plots| 10 years) and focal tree species (six species| 24 years) to assess the effects of rainfall| temperature| and atmospheric [CO(2)] on annual wood production in a neotropical rain forest. Our study area was a meso-scale section (600 ha) of old-growth Tropical Wet Forest in NE Costa Rica. Using the repeated remeasurements we directly assessed the relative effects of interannual climatic variation and increasing atmospheric [CO(2)] on wood production. A remarkably simple two-factor model explained 91% of the interannual variance in stand-level tree growth; the statistically independent factors were total dry season rainfall (positive effect| r2=0.85) and night-time temperature (negative effect| r2=0.42). Stand-level tree mortality increased significantly with night-time temperature. After accounting for dry season rainfall and night-time temperature| there was no effect of annual [CO(2)] on tree growth in either the stand or focal species data. Tree growth in this Tropical Wet Forest was surprisingly sensitive to the current range of dry season conditions and to variations in mean annual night-time temperature of 1-2 degrees. Our results suggest that wood production in the lowland rainforests of NE Costa Rica (and by extension in other tropical regions) may be severely reduced in future climates that are only slightly drier and/or warmer. 11082,2010,2,4,Anopheles culicifacies breeding in brackish waters in Sri Lanka and implications for malaria control,Background: Anopheles culicifacies is the major vector of both falciparum and vivax malaria in Sri Lanka| while Anopheles subpictus and certain other species function as secondary vectors. In Sri Lanka| An. culicifacies is present as a species complex consisting of species B and E| while An. subpictus exists as a complex of species A-D. The freshwater breeding habit of An. culicifacies is well established. In order to further characterize the breeding sites of the major malaria vectors in Sri Lanka| a limited larval survey was carried out at a site in the Eastern province that was affected by the 2004 Asian tsunami. Methods: Anopheline larvae were collected fortnightly for six months from a brackish water body near Batticaloa town using dippers. Collected larvae were reared in the laboratory and the emerged adults were identified using standard keys. Sibling species status was established based on Y-chromosome morphology for An. culicifacies larvae and morphometric characteristics for An. subpictus larvae and adults. Salinity| dissolved oxygen and pH were determined at the larval collection site. Results: During a six month study covering dry and wet seasons| a total of 935 anopheline larvae were collected from this site that had salinity levels up to 4 parts per thousand at different times. Among the emerged adult mosquitoes| 661 were identified as An. culicifacies s.l. and 58 as An. subpictus s.l. Metaphase karyotyping of male larvae showed the presence of species E of the Culicifacies complex| and adult morphometric analysis the presence of species B of the Subpictus complex. Both species were able to breed in water with salinity levels up to 4 ppt. Conclusions: The study demonstrates the ability of An. culicifacies species E| the major vector of falciparum and vivax malaria in Sri Lanka| to oviposit and breed in brackish water. The sibling species B in the An. subpictus complex| a well-known salt water breeder and a secondary malaria vector in the country| was also detected at the same site. Since global warming and the rise in sea levels will further increase of inland brackish water bodies| the findings have significant implications for the control of malaria in Sri Lanka and elsewhere. 11051,2010,2,2,Another "Great Transformation"? Social and cultural consequences of climate change,The dynamics of anthropogenic climate change is not merely a question of natural processes| but first and foremost| a question of economy| society| and culture. The humanities are therefore crucial to analyzing issues like migration| new risks because of extreme weather events| violent conflict| and the impact of global warming on political stability. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3384314] 10541,2010,2,3,Anthropogenic land cover changes in a GCM with surface albedo changes based on MODIS data,This study uses a global climate model (GCM) to investigate the climate response at the surface and in the atmosphere caused by land use change. The climate simulations are performed with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model 3.5 (CLM3.5) coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model 3 (CAM3) and a slab ocean model. We use the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface albedo product to represent surface albedo in the CLM3.5 for both present day and to reconstruct the surface albedo for natural pre-agriculture conditions. We compare simulations including vegetation changes and surface albedo changes to simulations including only surface albedo changes. We find that the surface albedo change is most dominant in temperate regions while the change in evapotranspiration drives the climate response in the tropics. Our results show that land cover changes contribute to an annual global warming of 0.04 K| but there are large regional differences. In North America and Europe| the surface temperatures decrease by -0.11 and -0.09 K| respectively| while in India the surface temperatures increase by 0.09 K. When we fix the vegetation cover in the simulations and let the climate changes be driven only by the differences in surface albedo| the annual global mean surface warming is reduced| and all three regions are now associated with surface cooling. We also show that the surface albedo value for cropland is of major importance in climate simulations of land cover change. The surface albedo effect is the main driving mechanism when the change in surface albedo between agricultural and natural vegetation is substantial. Finally| we argue that differences in the surface albedo value of cropland implemented in earlier land use change studies explain the diversity in the sign and magnitude of the climate response. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 10452,2010,2,4,Apes in a changing world - the effects of global warming on the behaviour and distribution of African apes,Aim In this study we use a modelling approach to identify: (1) the factors responsible for the differences in ape biogeography| (2) the effects that global warming might have on distribution patterns of African apes| (3) the underlying mechanisms for these effects| and (4) the implications that behavioural flexibility might be expected to have for ape survival. All African apes are highly endangered| and the need for efficient conservation methods is a top priority. The expected changes in world climate are likely to further exacerbate the difficulties they face. Our study aims to further understand the mechanisms that link climatic conditions to the behaviour and biogeography of ape species. Location Africa. Method We use an existing validated time budgets model| derived from data on 20 natural populations of gorillas (Gorilla beringei and Gorilla gorilla) and chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes and Pan paniscus)| which specifies the relationship between climate| group size| body weight and time available for various activities| to predict ape distribution across Africa under a uniform worst-case climate change scenario. Results We demonstrate that a worst-case global warming scenario is likely to alter the delicate balance between different time budget components. Our model points to the importance of annual temperature variation| which was found to have the strongest impact on ape biogeography. Our simulation indicates that rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns are likely to have strong effects on ape survival and distribution| particularly for gorillas. Even if they behaved with maximum flexibility| gorillas may not be able to survive in most of their present habitats if the climate was to undergo extreme changes. The survival of chimpanzees was found to be strongly dependent on the minimum viable group size required. Main conclusions Our model allows us to explore how climatic conditions| individual behaviour and morphological traits may interact to limit the biogeographical distributions of these species| thereby allowing us to predict the effects of climate change on African ape distributions under different climate change regimes. The model suggests that climate variability (i.e. seasonality) plays a more important role than the absolute magnitude of the change| but these data are not normally provided by climate models. 10952,2010,2,4,Aphids in the face of global changes,Global warming is one of the principal challenges facing insects worldwide. It affects individual species and interactions between species directly through effects on their physiology and indirectly through effects on their habitat. Aphids are particularly sensitive to temperature changes due to certain specific biological features of this group. Effects on individuals have repercussions for aphid diversity and population dynamics. At a pan-European scale| the EXAMINE observation network has provided evidence for an increase in the number of aphid species present over the last 30 years and for earlier spring flights. We review these results and provide a review of the principal effects of global warming on aphid communities. (C) 2010 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved. 11142,2010,2,4,Apoptosis induced by Oropouche virus infection in HeLa cells is dependent on virus protein expression,Oropouche (OROV) is a single-stranded RNA arbovirus of the family Bunyaviridae| genus Orthobunyavirus| which has caused over half a million cases of febrile illness in Brazil in the past 30 years. OROV fever has been registered almost exclusively in the Amazon region| but global warming| deforestation and redistribution of vectors and animal reservoirs increases the risk of Oropouche virus emergence in other areas. OROV causes a cytolytical infection in cultured cells with characteristic cytopathic effect 48 h post-infection. We have studied the mechanisms of apoptosis induced by OROV in HeLa cells and found that OROV causes DNA fragmentation detectable by gel electrophoresis and by flow cytometric analysis of the Sub-G1 population at 36 h post-infection. Mitochondrial release of cytochrome C and activation of caspases 9 and 3 were also detected by western blot analysis. Lack of apoptosis induced by UV-inactivated OROV reveals that virus-receptor binding is not sufficient to induce cell death. Results obtained in cells treated with chloroquine and cycloheximide indicated that viral uncoating and replication are required for apoptosis induction by OROV. Furthermore| treatment of the cells with pan-caspase inhibitor prevented OROV-induced apoptosis without affecting virus progeny production. The results show that OROV infection in vitro causes apoptosis by an intracellular pathway involving mitochondria| and activated by a mechanism dependent on viral replication and protein synthesis. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10637,2010,2,4,Apple (Malus pumila var. domestica) phenology is advancing due to rising air temperature in northern Japan,Recent studies show advancing onset of plant growing season in many regions for the last several decades. With the well-established dependence of plant phenology on temperature| these trends are interpreted as an indication of global warming. For several decades| however| other determinants of plant phenology| e.g. varieties and trends in managed systems| may have changed and confounded the phenological trends. In this study| we tested if long-term changes in phenology of apple (Malus pumila var. domestica) are attributable to long-term changes in temperature by comparing the phenological response to long-term trend in air temperature| which is of our interest| with that to year-to-year fluctuation in air temperature| which should represent the real effect of temperature on phenology. We collected records of air temperature and phenological events (budding and flowering) in apple from 1977 to 2004 at six locations in Japan. Linear trends in flowering showed advancing rate in the range from 0.21 to 0.35 day yr-1| statistically significant at three locations (P < 0.05). We also found a warming trend in mean air temperature throughout March and April| with which flowering was closely correlated| in the range from 0.047 to 0.077 degrees C yr-1| statistically significant at five locations (P < 0.05). We separated the temperature time-series into two components: a long-term trend and a year-to-year fluctuation| by fitting smoothing spline to the trend and taking the residuals as the anomaly. We then fit a multiple regression model of phenological response to air temperature with separate coefficients for long-term trend and anomaly. Flowering date responded to the long-term trend at -3.8 day degrees C-1 and to the anomaly at -4.6 day degrees C-1. The temperature coefficients were not statistically different from each other or among locations| suggesting that the advance of apple phenology has predominantly been caused by the temperature increase across the locations studied. The same result was also observed with budding. 393,2010,4,4,Application of SEBAL and Markov Models for Future Stream Flow Simulation Through Remote Sensing,Watershed hydrology| including the volumes of stream flow is widely considered to be influenced by global climate change. Traditional studies using the (GWLF) model to estimate stream flows have relied on evapotranspiration cover coefficient (Kc) obtained from published references. Other factors| such as future land-use status and evapotranspiration (ET) change| are usually not considered. This study aims to improve on traditional studies by including remote sensing techniques to estimate the Kc| as well as integrating the SEBAL model| the CGCM1 model| and the Markov model to predict land-use and ET changes. The chosen study area was in the north of Taiwan. The processes include land-use classification using hybrid approach and Landsat-5 TM images| a comparison of stream flow simulations using the GWLF model with two Kc values derived from remote sensing and traditional methods| and finally the prediction of future land-use and Kc parameters for assessing the effect of land-use change and ET change. The results indicated that the study area was classified into seven land-use types with 89.09% classification accuracy. The stream flows simulated by two estimated Kcs were different| and the simulated stream flows using the remote sensing approach presented more accurate hydrological characteristics than a traditional approach. In addition| the consideration of land-use change and ET change indeed affected the predicted stream flows under climate change conditions. These results imply that the integration of remote sensing| the SEBAL model| the CGCM1 model| and the Markov model is a feasible scheme to predict future land-use| ET change| and stream flow. Therefore| these models will improve future studies of predictions in water resource management and global environmental change. 503,2010,2,4,Aquaporins in the wild: natural genetic diversity and selective pressure in the PIP gene family in five Neotropical tree species,Background: Tropical trees undergo severe stress through seasonal drought and flooding| and the ability of these species to respond may be a major factor in their survival in tropical ecosystems| particularly in relation to global climate change. Aquaporins are involved in the regulation of water flow and have been shown to be involved in drought response; they may therefore play a major adaptive role in these species. We describe genetic diversity in the PIP sub-family of the widespread gene family of Aquaporins in five Neotropical tree species covering four botanical families. Results: PIP Aquaporin subfamily genes were isolated| and their DNA sequence polymorphisms characterised in natural populations. Sequence data were analysed with statistical tests of standard neutral equilibrium and demographic scenarios simulated to compare with the observed results. Chloroplast SSRs were also used to test demographic transitions. Most gene fragments are highly polymorphic and display signatures of balancing selection or bottlenecks; chloroplast SSR markers have significant statistics that do not conform to expectations for population bottlenecks. Although not incompatible with a purely demographic scenario| the combination of all tests tends to favour a selective interpretation of extant gene diversity. Conclusions: Tropical tree PIP genes may generally undergo balancing selection| which may maintain high levels of genetic diversity at these loci. Genetic variation at PIP genes may represent a response to variable environmental conditions. 11524,2010,3,3,Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios,This paper presents 5 km x 5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases| black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region| potential diversion traffic through emerging routes| and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution| geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow)| aerosols| and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of similar to 4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO(2) emissions (similar to 42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon| and other pollutants from ships. 10621,2010,4,4,Are ecological gradients in seasonal Q(10) of soil respiration explained by climate or by vegetation seasonality?,Soil respiration (SR) is highly sensitive to future climate change| and particularly to global warming. However| considerable uncertainties remain associated with the temperature sensitivity of SR and its controlling processes. Using 384 field measurement data from 114 published papers and one book| this study quantifies the variation in the seasonal Q(10) values of soil respiration| the multiplier by which respiration rates increase for a 10 degrees C increase in temperature| and its drivers across different sites. No significant correlation between Q(10) and mean annual temperature or mean annual precipitation is found when statistically controlling seasonal changes in vegetation activity| deduced from satellite vegetation greenness index observations (normalized difference vegetation index| or NDVI). In contrast| the seasonal amplitude of NDVI is significantly and positively correlated with the apparent Q(10) of SR. This result indicates that the variations of seasonal vegetation activity exert dominant control over the variations of the apparent Q(10) of SR across different sites| highlighting the ecological linkage between plant physiological processes and soil processes. It further implies that the seasonal variation of vegetation activity may thus dominate the apparent seasonal temperature sensitivity. We conclude that the apparent Q(10) value of SR estimated from field measurements is generally larger than the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition| and thus cautions should be taken when applying apparent Q(10) values directly in ecosystem models. Our regression analysis further shows that when the amplitude of NDVI variation approximates 0 (and thus when the seasonality in vegetation activity is marginal)| the residual Q(10) of SR for soil temperature measured at 5 cm depth is about 1.5. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10421,2010,2,4,Are Outbreaks of Nilaparvata lugens (Stal) Associated With Global Warming?,Outbreaks of the Nilaparvata lugens (stal)| have occurred frequently in China during the past few years| resulting in a broad and significant reduction in rice yield. N. lugens immigrate into China each spring from Southeast Asia| and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is the first area affected. Light trap catches for the early season period (March-June) in Guangxi for the past 30 yr have been analyzed| and the catch sequences for five observation stations (Longzhou| Hepu| Yongning Yongfu| and Quanzhou) were studied in detail. It was found that during the past 10 yr the first appearance of N. lugens at light traps occurs earlier| there is a higher frequency of days with large light-trap catches| and catches in southern Guangxi are larger. Recently light-trap catches have also increased in northern Guangxi. It is concluded that the increasing number of immigrants from overseas is one of the primary reasons for the increase in N. lugens outbreaks in the past 10 yr. Global warming| and specifically winter temperature increases| appears to be for a factor accelerating outbreaks of N. lugens in Asia. 347,2010,2,4,Are snake populations in widespread decline?,Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes| amphibians| reptiles| birds and mammals. In birds| and particularly amphibians| these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles| snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that| of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK| France| Italy| Nigeria and Australia| 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown| we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration| prey availability)| and with a common cause| e.g. global climate change| at their root. 11152,2010,2,4,Arthropod species richness in the Norway Spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) canopy along an elevation gradient,Norway Spruce is the economically most important tree species in Europe and has been cultivated in plantations on a large-scale at low elevations| far outside its natural range. In the Bohemian Forest| it naturally occurs in pure stands above 1150 m a.s.l. and as a mixed tree species from 650 to 1150 m a.s.l. An understanding of natural distributions and the diversity along temperature gradients at various elevations is important for conservation| pest management| and predictions of future species assemblages by global warming. Here we investigated the species richness of canopy arthropods in spruce trees along a gradient from 300 to 1300 m a.s.l. using flight-interception traps. We analyzed species richness by combining diversity partitioning with a moving window approach after standardizing sample size per plot. Total richness decreased linearly as the elevation increased| which reflected declining temperatures and a declining regional species pool. Phytophages (herbivores excluding xylophages) were the most influenced. Richness did not peak at the transition zones of the three ecological elevation zones| neither for all species| nor for any of the separate functional groups. However| the proportion of both beetle and true bug spruce specialists significantly increased with elevation and actually doubled in richness above 1000 m a.s.l.| where spruce is naturally dominating. Our results indicate that even planted spruce trees at lower elevations maintain high levels of species richness. Further climate warming will promote overall species richness| especially of phytophages| at all elevations. However| spruce specialists may be seriously threatened by global warming. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10905,2010,3,1,Assessing the climatic benefits of black carbon mitigation,To limit mean global warming to 2 C| a goal supported by more than 100 countries| it will likely be necessary to reduce emissions not only of greenhouse gases but also of air pollutants with high radiative forcing (RF)| particularly black carbon (BC). Although several recent research papers have attempted to quantify the effects of BC on climate| not all these analyses have incorporated all the mechanisms that contribute to its RF (including the effects of BC on cloud albedo| cloud coverage| and snow and ice albedo| and the optical consequences of aerosol mixing) and have reported their results in different units and with different ranges of uncertainty. Here we attempt to reconcile their results and present them in uniform units that include the same forcing factors. We use the best estimate of effective RF obtained from these results to analyze the benefits of mitigating BC emissions for achieving a specific equilibrium temperature target. For a 500 ppm CO(2)e (3.1 Wm(-2)) effective RF target in 2100| which would offer about a 50% chance of limiting equilibrium warming to 2.5 degrees C above preindustrial temperatures| we estimate that failing to reduce carbonaceous aerosol emissions from contained combustion would require CO(2) emission cuts about 8 years (range of 1-15 years) earlier than would be necessary with full mitigation of these emissions. 10641,2010,3,4,Assessing the environmental impact of ceramic tile production in Thailand,Ceramic tiles are one of the most widely used materials in both commercial and residential buildings. As environmental problems increase| the need for environment-friendly building design increases. To achieve this| architects and engineers need reliable data on the environmental impacts of various building materials-including ceramic tiles. This paper reports the results of environmental impact assessment of ceramic tile production in Thailand. Key impact categories| including fossil fuel impact| global warming| ozone depletion| ecotoxicity| and human toxicity were assessed. The results showed that when assessed by EDIP methodology| the global warming impact value of 3.73E+3 kg CO(2)-eq per megagram (Mg) of ceramic tile is quite prominent and is rather high compared with existing data in current literature. The human toxicity impact value is also significant. The values of the other impact categories were also determined and found to be relatively high. When assessed using the Eco-indicator 99 methodology| the results showed that the fossil fuel category was the most affected with a value of 8.62E+1 Pt per Mg of ceramic tile| followed by respiratory inorganics and climate change. Raw materials transportation stage yielded the highest environmental impact values. It is thought that the key factors responsible for the relatively high impact values are the process technologies employed and the long transportation distances of the raw materials. It was concluded that the environmental impact values of ceramic tile production in this study are different from| and in most cases higher than| the values presented in current literature. (C) 2010 The Ceramic Society of Japan. All rights reserved 553,2010,2,4,Assessing the impact of climate change on visitor behaviour and habitat use at the coast: A UK case study,Although tourism and recreation can bring economic benefits to an area| the presence of visitors may adversely impact biodiversity| particularly if they make use of sensitive environments. It is anticipated that the effects of global climate change alone may increase the vulnerability of many environments| but these effects may be magnified if warmer and drier weather encourages more visitors| or makes them more likely to participate in ecologically damaging activities. Using case study sites from the UK| this study examines how different types of beach visitors make use of coastal environments. Via a series of visitor surveys| information is elicited on the environmental preferences of a range of visitor types including walkers| bird watchers| and bathers. The use of different habitats by these visitors is also assessed via an analysis of walking routes undertaken in a Geographical Information System. From this| an assessment is made of the likely present day biodiversity impacts arising from different coastal users| and how these may change under a modified climate. This study finds that whilst higher temperatures are expected to increase visitor numbers| warmer weather may encourage greater participation in low impact activities such as bathing. The findings are discussed in the context of coastal management. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10651,2010,3,3,Assessing the regional disparities in geoengineering impacts,Solar Radiation Management (SRM) Geoengineering may ameliorate many consequences of global warming but also has the potential to drive regional climates outside the envelope of greenhouse-gas induced warming| creating 'novel' conditions| and could affect precipitation in some regions disproportionably. Here| using a fully coupled climate model we explore some new methodologies for assessing regional disparities in geoengineering impacts. Taking a 4 x CO(2) climate and an idealized 'sunshade' SRM strategy| we consider different fractions of the maximum theoretical| 4 x CO(2)-cancelling global mean cooling. Whilst regional predictions in particularly relatively low resolution global climate models must be treated with caution| our simulations indicate that it might be possible to identify a level of SRM geoengineering capable of meeting multiple targets| such as maintaining a stable mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and cooling global climate| but without reducing global precipitation below pre-industrial or exposing significant fractions of the Earth to 'novel' climate conditions. Citation: Irvine| P. J.| A. Ridgwell| and D. J. Lunt (2010)| Assessing the regional disparities in geoengineering impacts| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L18702| doi:10.1029/2010GL044447. 10859,2010,2,3,Assessment of climate change impact on residential building heating and cooling energy requirement in Australia,This study investigated the potential impact of climate change on the heating and cooling (H/C) energy requirements of residential houses in five regional climates varying from cold to hot humid in Australia. Nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three carbon emission scenarios were applied to project the local climate. It was found that significant climate change impact on H/C energy requirements may occur within the lifespan of existing housing stock. The total H/C energy requirement of newly constructed 5 star houses is projected to vary significantly in the range of -26% to 101% by 2050 and -48% to 350% by 2100 given the A1B| A1FI and 550 ppm stabilisation emission scenarios| dependent on the existing regional climate. In terms of percentage change| houses in an H/C balanced temperate climate such as Sydney is found to be the most sensitive to climate change| potentially posing more pressures on the capacity of local energy supply. It was also found that energy efficient or high star rating houses may experience less absolute changes in energy requirement. However| they appear to experience higher percentage changes in the total H/C energy requirement. Especially in the regions with an H/C balanced temperate climate such as Sydney| the increase in the total H/C energy requirement is projected up to 120% and 530% for a 7 star house when the global temperature increases 2 degrees C and 5 degrees C respectively. The high sensitivity to global warming may need to be considered in the planning of future energy requirement for energy efficient buildings. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10428,2010,3,3,Assessment of methane and nitrous oxide fluxes in rural landscapes,We estimated CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from the main land-use types in rural landscapes using data from the literature (950 study sites/experiments from the temperate and boreal zone published from 1980 to 2009 in 165 scientific papers indexed by the ISI Web of Science) and assessed the emission potential of CH(4) and N(2)O from rural landscapes in Estonia. According to this analysis| natural peatlands and marshes appeared to be the most important CH(4) emitters| whereas N(2)O is emitted mainly from drained peatlands and marshes| set aside areas| conventional arable lands| fertilized grasslands| and coniferous and mixed forests - all on hydromorphic soils. The estimated median value of annual CH(4)-C and N(2)O-N fluxes for Estonian rural landscapes are 25|519 and 11|050t respectively. CH(4) consumption makes up 13.2% of the emission. The largest CH(4) emitters are peatlands (17|746 tCH(4)-C year(-1); 60%)| whereas coniferous and mixed forests on hydromorphic soils with altered hydrologic regime are responsible for the bulk (51%) of N(2)O fluxes. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) of Estonian rural land-use types (42|685 km(2)) from potential CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes is 5.99 million t of CO(2) equivalents| of which N(2)O is responsible for 86%. Several measures for the further mitigation of greenhouse gas emission from rural landscapes are proposed. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10511,2010,3,4,Assessment of Technical and Environmental Performances of Wheat-Based Foams in Thermal Packaging Applications,This paper presents an assessment of the technical and environmental performance of a wheat-based foam (WBF) and bio-composite for shipping chilled products. The thermal conductivity of the WBF was found to be higher than that of polyurethane foams commonly used in high-value insulation packaging| but close to that of low-density (expanded polystyrene) EPS foams and significantly lower than that of polyethylene (PE) foams| which are typically used in thermal packaging of foods. The insulation performance of a simple cool box constructed from both the WBF and EPS sandwich panels without the use of any refrigerant was studied experimentally. The comparison demonstrated that the performance of the WBF cool box was comparable to that of the EPS counterpart Two industrial case studies were conducted on WBF cool boxes with refrigerants in comparison with PE or EPS counterparts The WBF cool boxes had comparable thermal performance to the EPS and PE counterparts on the basis of identical foam thickness. The performance of the WBF cool boxes was also simulated with finite element (FE) modelling. Good agreement was achieved between experimental data and the FE prediction. The model was then used to assist cool box design. WBF cool boxes made from renewable raw materials are inherently biodegradable and may be used as an alternative to those based on polymer foams in thermal packaging applications. Life-cycle assessment (LCA) was used to investigate environmental profiles of cool boxes made with WBF| EPS and PE foams. The WBF cool boxes offer substantially lower global warming and abiotic depletion potentials than equivalent cool boxes made from petrochemical foams. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 10974,2010,3,3,Assessment of the methane mitigation potentials of alternative water regimes in rice fields using a process-based biogeochemistry model,Rice production is a substantial source of atmospheric CH(4)| which is second only to CO(2) as a contributor to global warming. Since CH(4) is produced in anaerobic soil environments| water management is expected to be a practical measure to mitigate CH(4) emissions. In this study| we used a process-based biogeochemistry model (DNDC-Rice) to assess the CH(4) mitigation potentials of alternative water regimes (AWR) for rice fields at a regional scale. Before regional application| we tested DNDC-Rice using site-scale data from three rice fields in Japan with different water regimes. The observed CH(4) emissions were reduced by drainage of the fields| but were enhanced by organic amendments. DNDC-Rice gave acceptable predictions of variation in daily CH(4) fluxes and seasonal CH(4) emissions due to changes in the water regime. For regional application| we constructed a GIS database at a 1 x 1 km mesh scale that contained data on rice field area| soil properties| daily weather| and farming management of each cell in the mesh| covering 3.2% of the rice fields in Japan's Hokkaido region. We ran DNDC-Rice to simulate CH(4) emissions under five simulated water regimes: the conventional water regime and four AWR scenarios with gradually increasing drainage. We found that AWR can reduce CH(4) emission by up to 41% compared with the emission under conventional water regime. Including the changes in CO(2) and nitrous oxide emissions| potential mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) was 2.6 Mg CO(2) Eq. ha-1 yr-1. If this estimate is expanded to Japan's total rice fields| expected GHG mitigation is 4.3 Tg CO(2) Eq. yr-1| which accounts for 0.32% of total GHG emissions from Japan. For a reliable national-scale assessment| however| databases on soil| weather| and farming management must be constructed at a national scale| as these factors are widely variable between regions in Japan. 10608,2010,2,4,Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and phosphate-classified bottom-up control of Atlantic pelagic ecosystems through the 20th century,Both the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the North Atlantic Ocean (NA) biosphere have recognized associations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These multidecadal physical-biological affinities inspired a closer look at AMOC influences on bottom-up control of NA and South Atlantic Ocean (SA) pelagic ecosystem variability. Various ocean models associate changes in the AMOC with sea surface temperature (SST) differences in the western subpolar NA and SA represented as the Atlantic Dipole SST Anomaly (ADSA) index. The Extended Reconstructed SST version 2 (ERSSTv2) dataset for 2 degrees quadrangles from 1890 to 2007 was used here to represent Atlantic Ocean SST patterns and to gauge 20th century AMOC variability using an Atlantic Dipole SST (ADS) index| an un-normalized version of ADSA index. Temperature-phosphate (T-PO(4)) linear regressions were used to convert temperature to phosphate concentration ([PO(4)]). The interannual stability of T-PO(4) linear regressions first was examined using 26 Bermuda area T-PO(4) datasets between 1958 and 2001. Within the constraints provided by the Bermuda analysis| climatological T-PO(4) linear regressions based on GEOSECS-derived slopes and NODC-derived X-intercepts supported the conversion of monthly Atlantic Ocean ERSSTv2 temperatures for each 2 degrees quadrangle to monthly surface [PO(4)]. A representative annual surface phosphate utilization (SPU) was calculated for each 2 degrees quadrangle by subtracting monthly minimum surface [PO(4)] from monthly maximum surface [PO(4)] to determine the annual surface [PO(4)] ranges from 1890 to 2007. Annual average SST tended to increase and overall annual average SPU tended to decrease through the 20th century in both the NA and SA| but the NA exhibited more temporal variability. An Atlantic Dipole Phosphate Utilization (ADPU) index related to the ADS index was calculated for each year from 1890 to 2007. The ADS and ADPU indices were inversely correlated with about 57% of the variability in the ADPU index explained by the ADS index. The ADPU index exhibited three distinct cycles through the 20th century. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the NAO led the ADS and ADPU indices by about 14 years. Differences in annual average SPU for each Atlantic Ocean 2 degrees quadrangle between the three high and four low years of the ADPU cycles yielded six maps that| when averaged| clearly exhibited reversed east-west patterns distributed in alternating latitudinal bands in both the NA and SA. The east-west patterns spatially corresponded to the NA and SA surface circulation and temporally resembled NA patterns previously associated with the NAO. AMOC variability| mediated by Kelvin and Rossby waves associated with changes in both deep and surface arm circulation| likely contributed to meridional continuity of phosphate-classified| NA| and SA pelagic ecosystem variability| including fisheries| through the 20th century. Based on the results| future global warming influences on the AMOC| well short of shutdown| likely will have complex pelagic ecosystem impacts throughout the Atlantic Ocean. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10819,2010,2,4,Atlantic pycnocline theory scrutinized using a coupled climate model,Simulations with changed Southern Ocean wind-stress| oceanic vertical mixing| surface freshwater forcing and global warming confirm the basic equations of Gnanadesikan's (1999) theory for the Atlantic: one vertical scale| the pycnocline depth D| contributes inversely proportional to low-latitudinal upwelling and linearly to Southern Ocean eddy transport. The maximum Atlantic overturning is confirmed to be quadratic in D but is also shown to be linear in a meridional density difference Delta rho. Our simulations strongly suggest that the theory needs to be complemented by a dynamical equation for Delta rho since changes in both D and Delta rho are significant and mutually independent. While| under global warming D varies strongly and Delta rho is practically constant| the situation is reversed for altered surface freshwater fluxes. Similarly| variations in the meridional length scale of Southern Ocean outcropping require a dynamical equation in order to capture the fundamental behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Citation: Levermann| A.| and J. J. Furst (2010)| Atlantic pycnocline theory scrutinized using a coupled climate model| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L14602| doi:10.1029/2010GL044180. 11505,2010,3,4,Atmospheric chemistry of C(4)F(9)OC(2)H(5) (HFE-7200)| C(4)F(9)OCH(3) (HFE-7100)| C(3)F(7)OCH(3) (HFE-7000) and C(3)F(7)CH(2)OH: temperature dependence of the kinetics of their reactions with OH radicals| atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials,The atmospheric chemistry of several gases used in industrial applications| C(4)F(9)OC(2)H(5) (HFE-7200)| C(4)F(9)OCH(3) (HFE-7100)| C(3)F(7)OCH(3) (HFE-7000) and C(3)F(7)CH(2)OH| has been studied. The discharge flow technique coupled with mass-spectrometric detection has been used to study the kinetics of their reactions with OH radicals as a function of temperature. The infrared spectra of the compounds have also been measured. The following Arrhenius expressions for the reactions were determined (in units of cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)): k(OH + HFE-7200) = (6.9(-1.7)(+2.3)) x 10(-11) exp(-(2030 +/- 190)/T); k(OH + HFE-7100) = (2.8(-1.5)(+3.2)) x 10(-11) exp(-(2200 +/- 490)/T); k(OH + HFE-7000) = (2.0(-0.7)(+1.2)) x 10(-11) exp(-(2130 +/- 290)/T); and k(OH + C(3)F(7)CH(2)OH) = (1.4(-0.2)(+0.3)) x 10(-11) exp(-(1460 +/- 120)/T). From the infrared spectra| radiative forcing efficiencies were determined and compared with earlier estimates in the literature. These were combined with the kinetic data to estimate 100-year time horizon global warming potentials relative to CO(2) of 69| 337| 499 and 36 for HFE-7200| HFE-7100| HFE-7000 and CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH| respectively. 10395,2010,4,4,Atmospheric Chemistry of HCF(2)O(CF(2)CF(2)O)(x)CF(2)H (x=2-4): Kinetics and Mechanisms of the Chlorine-Atom-Initiated Oxidation,Smog chamber/FTIR techniques were used to measure k(Cl+HCF(2)O(CF(2)CF(2)O)(x)CF(2)H)=(5.3 +/- 1.5) x 10(-17) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) in 700 Torr of N(2)/O(2) diluent at 296 +/- 1 K. The Cl-initiated atmospheric oxidation of HCF(2)O(CF(2)CF(2)O)(x)CF(2)H| x = 2|3 and 4| gave COF(2) in molar yields of (593 +/- 41) %| (758 +/- 71)% and (939 +/- 73) %| respectively| with no other observable carbon-containing products (i.e.| essentially complete conversion of the hydrofluoropolyethers into COF(2)). Quantitative infrared spectra for HCF(2)O(CF(2)CF(2)O)(x)CF(2)H (x=2-4) were recorded and used to estimate the radiative efficiencies of the title compounds (1.07| 1.33| and 1.36 Wm(-2)ppb(-1)). Global warming potentials (100 year time horizon) of 3870| 4730 and 5060 were estimated for HCF(2)O(CF(2)CF(2)O)(x)CF(2)H| x = 2| 3 and 4| respectively. The results are discussed with respect to the atmospheric chemistry and environmental impact of hydrofluoropolyethers. 376,2010,2,4,Atmospheric HCH Concentrations over the Marine Boundary Layer from Shanghai| China to the Arctic Ocean: Role of Human Activity and Climate Change,From July to September 2008| air samples were collected aboard the research expedition icebreaker XueLong (Snow Dragon) as part of the 2008 Chinese Arctic Research Expedition Program. Hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) concentrations were analyzed in all of the samples. The average concentrations (+/- standard deviation) over the entire period were 33 +/- 16| 5.4 +/- 3.0| and 13 +/- 7.5 pg m(-3) for alpha-| beta- and gamma-HCH| respectively. Compared to previous studies in the same areas| total HCH (Sigma HCH| the sum of alpha-| beta-| and gamma-HCH) levels declined by more than 10x compared to those observed in the 1990s| but were approximately 4x higher than those measured by the 2003 China Arctic Research Expedition| suggesting the increase of atmospheric Sigma HCH recently. Because of the continuing use of lindane| ratios of alpha/gamma-HCH showed an obvious decrease in North Pacific and Arctic region compared with those for 2003 Chinese Arctic Research Expedition. In Arctic| the level of alpha-HCH was found to be linked to sea ice distribution. Geographically| the average concentration of alpha-HCH in air samples from the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas| neither of which contain sea ice| was 23 +/- 4.4 pg m(-3)| while samples from the area covered by seasonal ice (similar to 75 degrees N to similar to 83 degrees N)| the so-called "floating sea ice region"| contained the highest average levels of alpha-HCH at 48 +/- 12 pg m(-3)| likely due to emission from sea ice and strong air-sea exchange. The lowest concentrations of alpha-HCH were observed in the pack ice region in the high Arctic covered by multiyear sea ice (similar to 83 degrees N to similar to 86 degrees N). This phenomenon implies that the re-emission of HCH trapped in ice sheets and Arctic Ocean may accelerate during the summer as ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean decreases in response to global climate change. 10397,2010,4,4,Atmospheric Lifetimes and Global Warming Potentials of CF(3)CH(2)CH(2)OH and CF(3)(CH(2))(2)CH(2)OH,A comprehensive study of several atmospheric degradation routes for two hydrofluoroalcohols| CF(3)(CH(2))(x=1|2)CH(2)OH| is presented. The gas-phase kinetics of their reactions with hydroxyl radicals (OH) and chlorine (Cl) atoms are investigated by absolute and relative techniques| respectively. The room-temperature rate coefficients (+/-sigma| in cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) k(OH) and k(Cl)| are respectively (9.7 +/- 1.1) x 10(-13) and (1.60 +/- 0.45) x 10(-11) for CF(3)CH(2)CH(2)OH| and (2.62 +/- 0.32) x 10(-12) and (8.71 +/- 0.24) x 10(-11) for CF(3)(CH(2))(2)CH(2)OH. Average lifetimes of CF(3)CH(2)CH(2)OH and CF(3)(CH(2))(2)CH(2)OH due to the OH and Cl reactions are estimated to be 12 and 4 days| and greater than 20 and 4 years| respectively. Also| the IR and UV absorption cross sections of CF(3)(CH(2))(x=1|2)CH(2)OH are determined in the spectral ranges of 500-4000 cm(-1) and 200-310 nm. Photolysis of CF(3)(CH(2))(x=1|2)CH(2)OH in the actinic region (lambda >= 290 nm) is negligible compared to their homogeneous removal. Additionally| computational IR spectra are consistent with the experimental ones| thus giving high confidence in the obtained results. The lifetimes of CF(3)(CH(2))(x=1|2)CH(2)OH and IR spectra reported herein allow the calculation of the direct global warming potential of these hydrofluoroalcohols. The contribution of CF(3)(CH(2))(x)CH(2)OH to radiative forcing of climate change will be negligible. 612,2010,3,4,Atmospheric tracer monitoring and surface plume development at the ZERT pilot test in Bozeman| Montana| USA,A controlled release of CO(2) was conducted at a field site in Bozeman| Montana| USA in July of 2008 in a multi-laboratory study of near surface transport and detection technologies. The development of a subsurface CO(2) plume near the middle packer section of the horizontal release was studied using soil-gas and surface flux measurements of CO(2). A perfluorocarbon tracer was added to the CO(2) released from this section of the horizontal well| and the development of atmospheric plumes of the tracer was studied under various meteorological conditions using horizontal and vertical grids of monitors containing sorbent material to collect the tracer. This study demonstrated the feasibility of using remote sensing for the ultra low level detection of atmospheric plumes of tracers as means to monitor the near surface leakage of sequestered CO(2). 11252,2010,4,2,Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors,A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact| as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared| of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry| in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However| changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom| not a cause| of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper| we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change-that is| by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone| fine aerosols| aerosol-cloud interactions| methane| and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector| most relevant for the development of climate policy now| and focus on two specific time points| near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly| this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing. 10746,2010,3,3,Austria's CO(2) responsibility and the carbon content of its international trade,Seeking to limit global warming to 2 degrees C puts narrow restrictions on the remaining carbon budget. While the prevalent accounting framework for carbon emissions is production based (Production-Based Principle| PBP)| we here quantify the CO(2) emissions on the basis of the Consumption-Based Principle (CBP) for Austria. At a methodological level| a Multi-Regional Input-Output model with full linkages is used to account for Austria's CO(2) responsibility on a global scale. Estimates are carried out for the years 1997 and 2004. Results show that during 1997 CO(2) responsibility based on CBP were 36% larger than those based on PBP. This relation has increased through time. The CBP indicator of 2004 was 44% larger than the PBP. In terms of carbon emission location| for each Euro spent on Austrian final demand in 2004| it is estimated that two-thirds of the CO(2) emissions occur outside Austrian borders. Regarding the origin of the emissions embodied in imports| it is estimated that about one-fourth originated in non-Annex I countries in 1997. This proportion increased to one-third by 2004. Due to this divergence between CBP and PBP indicators| there is a need to rethink current accounting bases in order to properly assign CO(2) responsibilities. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 430,2010,4,4,Automated Polar Ice Thickness Estimation From Radar Imagery,This paper focuses on automating the task of estimating Polar ice thickness from airborne radar data acquired over Greenland and Antarctica. This process involves the identification and accurate selection of the ice sheet's surface location and interface between the ice sheet and the underlying bedrock for each measurement. Identifying the surface and bedrock locations in the radar imagery enables the computation of ice sheet thickness| which is important for the study of ice sheets| their volume| and how they may contribute to global climate change. The time-consuming manual approach requires sparse hand-selection of surface and bedrock interfaces by several human experts| and interpolating between the selections to save time. Two primary methods have been studied in this paper| namely| edge-based and active contour. Results are evaluated and presented using the metrics of time requirements and accuracy. Automated ice thickness estimation results from 2006 and 2007 Greenland field campaigns illustrate that the edge-based approach offers faster processing (seconds compared to minutes)| but suffers from a lack of continuity and smoothness aspects that active contours provide. The active contour approach is more accurate when compared to ground truth selections provided by human experts| and has proven to be more robust to image artifacts. It is shown that both techniques offer advantages which could be integrated to yield a more effective system. 11003,2010,2,4,Auxins reverse plant male sterility caused by high temperatures,With global warming| plant high temperature injury is becoming an increasingly serious problem. In wheat| barley| and various other commercially important crops| the early phase of anther development is especially susceptible to high temperatures. Activation of auxin biosynthesis with increased temperatures has been reported in certain plant tissues. In contrast| we here found that under high temperature conditions| endogenous auxin levels specifically decreased in the developing anthers of barley and Arabidopsis. In addition| expression of the YUCCA auxin biosynthesis genes was repressed by increasing temperatures. Application of auxin completely reversed male sterility in both plant species. These. findings suggest that tissue-specific auxin reduction is the primary cause of high temperature injury| which leads to the abortion of pollen development. Thus| the application of auxin may help sustain steady yields of crops despite future climate change. 600,2010,2,4,Avian distributions under climate change: towards improved projections,Birds are responding to recent climate change in a variety of ways including shifting their geographic ranges to cooler climates. There is evidence that northern-temperate birds have shifted their breeding and non-breeding ranges to higher latitudes| and tropical birds have shifted their breeding ranges to higher altitudes. There is further evidence these shifts have affected migration strategies and the composition and structure of communities. Projections based on correlative distributional models suggest many birds will experience substantial pressures under climate change| resulting in range contraction and shifts. Inherent limitations of correlative models| however| make it difficult to develop reliable projections and detailed inference. Incorporating a mechanistic perspective into species distribution models enriches the quality of model inferences but also severely narrows the taxonomic and geographic relevance. Mechanistic distributional models have seen increased applications| but so far primarily in ectotherms. We argue that further development of similar models in birds would complement existing empirical knowledge and theoretical projections. The considerable data already available on birds offer an exciting basis. In particular| information compiled on flight performance and thermal associations across life history stages could be linked to distributional limits and dispersal abilities| which could be used to develop more robust and detailed projections. Yet| only a broadening of taxonomic scale| specifically to appropriately represented tropical diversity| will allow for truly general inference and require the continued use of correlative approaches that may take on increasingly mechanistic components. The trade-off between detail and scale is likely to characterize the future of global change biodiversity research| and birds may be an excellent group to improve| integrate and geographically extend current approaches. 10459,2010,5,4,Bay-head deltas across the northern Gulf of Mexico back step in response to the 8.2 ka cooling event,Estuaries along the northern Gulf of Mexico show rapid landward shifts in estuarine environments (back-stepping) around 8200 cal yr BP. Paleogeographic maps of the estuaries based on seismic data and cores| and constrained chronologically by radiocarbon dates| depict bay-head delta retreat in excess of 25 m/yr. During these events the sub-aerial delta plain flooded to create sub-tidal upper- and middle-bay environments. Abrupt sea-level rise associated with the 8200 cal yr BP climate-change event caused these estuaries and others around the world to reorganize abruptly. In the northern Gulf of Mexico| the sea-level rise associated with the event was only similar to 0.1 m over a sub-decadal time period. This rise was superimposed on a background decelerating rate of sea-level rise of similar to 1.0-0.5 m/century. The widespread bay-head delta back-stepping| documented here| may be an appropriate analog for possible abrupt future climate change in response to global warming. It also shows that estuaries fringed by low-gradient shorelines are highly sensitive to low-amplitude and sudden sea-level rise. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 536,2010,2,4,Beech regeneration research: From ecological to silvicultural aspects,This review describes key regeneration characteristics of the genus Fagus as represented by its four most prominent species: F. crenata (F.c.)| F. grandifolia (F.g.)| F. orientalis (F.o.) and F. sylvatica (F.s.). Similarities and differences in the relevant life phases of these species are identified. Those are related to natural disturbance regimes and synecological peculiarities of the forests where they grow| thereby establishing a basis for evaluating the likely outcome of different silvicultural measures. Common ecological characteristics of these Fagus species' life cycles include the masting phenomenon| pollen dispersal with effective distances of about 100 m| seed dispersal to about 20 m| seedling sensitivity to frost| drought| and animal predation| and a very shade tolerant establishment phase. This commonality suggests its appropriateness as a "model-genus". However| some species also have unique ecological characteristics not observed in the others. F.g. exhibits root suckering| and beech bark disease seems to trigger vegetative regeneration by that means. Likewise| its masting behaviour deviates from F.s. F.o. and F.c.| occurring more frequently and more regularly. In F.c. forests| dwarf bamboo species and their ecological characteristics are important determinants of tree regeneration establishment. The small canopy gaps that commonly occur in Fagus dominated natural forests fit very well with the genus' regeneration characteristics. These conditions are best duplicated by management measures| which maintain partial overstory shading until the seedlings are large enough for release. However| such a strategy reduces chances to regenerate more light-demanding associated species. Together with differences in landowner objectives| the diversity of ecological conditions within and between the species of Fagus requires site-specific prescriptions to insure regeneration success| e.g. cutting regimes. Of particular interest to research are the challenges of managing mixed-species stands for high quality timber production in Central European and Caspian beech forests| the decline of F.g. and how to deal with the aftermath forest| and effective ways to manage F.c. in coexistence with dwarf bamboo. Further| the historic dispersal of heavy seeded Fagus species over long distances is still poorly understood. In addition| since their drought sensitive seedlings may be damaged or killed during extreme weather| research must address the possible effects of global climate change on the regeneration potential of beech forests. Species-bridging research may be needed to address these questions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10964,2010,2,4,Beechnuts and outbreaks of nephropathia epidemica (NE): of mast| mice and men,Hantaviruses are ‘emerging’ viruses and the only viral haemorrhagic fever agents with a worldwide distribution| including the temperate Northern hemisphere. They are spread by wild rodents (and perhaps also insectivores)| infecting man via their aerosolized but infectious excreta. So far| at least 22 different hantavirus species are officially recognized [1]| each with its own main rodent reservoir and hence specific geographical presence [2]. The most important pathogens are Hantaan and Seoul virus in Asia| Puumala and Dobrava virus in Europe| and Sin Nombre and Andes virus in the Americas. The American hantaviruses| discovered only in 1993| affect mainly the human lung and cause the ‘hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome’ (HCPS)| with a current fatality rate of ∼30% [2]. In contrast| all Old World hantaviruses are targeted mainly to the human kidney resulting in the ‘haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome’ (HFRS)| an often epidemic form of acute kidney injury (AKI)| characterized by interstitial haemorrhagic nephritis and sometimes acute tubular necrosis. Still| HCPS and HFRS considerably overlap: both ‘syndromes’ are rarely complete; the ‘haemorrhagic’ component is lacking in many HFRS and in virtually all HCPS cases [2–4]. In fact| HFRS and HCPS are misnomers. Of note| massive but transient proteinuria| the quintessential presenting symptom in HFRS| is also found in 100% of the so-called HCPS cases| some of which may actually need acute dialysis as a treatment [4]. Thus| as J. Desmyter proposed already in 1984| a general denomination such as ‘Hantavirus disease’ is shorter| less misleading| and more acceptable to clinicians| virologists and epidemiologists alike [5].
10851,2010,2,4,Behavior of geladas and other endemic wildlife during a desert locust outbreak at Guassa| Ethiopia: ecological and conservation implications,Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) outbreaks have occurred repeatedly throughout recorded history in the Horn of Africa region| devastating crops and contributing to famines. In June 2009| a desert locust swarm invaded the Guassa Plateau| Ethiopia| a large and unusually intact Afroalpine tall-grass ecosystem| home to important populations of geladas (Theropithecus gelada)| Ethiopian wolves (Canis simensis)| thick-billed ravens (Corvus crassirostris)| and other Ethiopian or Horn of Africa endemics. During the outbreak and its aftermath| we observed many animals| including geladas| ravens| and a wolf| feeding on locusts in large quantities. These observations suggest surprising flexibility in the normally highly specialized diets of geladas and wolves| including the potential for temporary but intensive insectivory during locust outbreaks. To our knowledge| Guassa is the highest elevation site (3|200-3|600 m) at which desert locusts| which require temperatures >20 degrees C for sustained flight| have been reported. Continued monitoring will be necessary to determine whether the June 2009 outbreak was an isolated incident or part of an emerging pattern in the Ethiopian Highlands linked to global warming. The intensive consumption of desert locusts by geladas| wolves| and ravens during the outbreak at Guassa raises concerns about pesticide-based locust control strategies and potential unintended adverse effects on endemic and endangered wildlife. 475,2010,2,4,Behavioural and respiratory response of the shallow-water hermit crab Pagurus cuanensis to hydrostatic pressure and temperature,The evolutionary history of the Anomura has long been controversially discussed. One aspect that has received little attention is the dissimilarity in physiological tolerances of the related families Paguridae and Lithodidae to environmental conditions| and how this may have determined the divergence and radiation of the families into different distribution ranges| in particular with regard to the limited penetration of the deep sea by the Paguridae. This study investigates the physiological tolerances of the temperate shallow-water hermit crab| Pagurus cuanensis| to various temperature (5| 10| 15| 20 degrees C) and pressure regimes (1 to 100 atm) by measuring the standard metabolic rate (SMR) and behavioural changes. SMR was primarily affected by temperature| with a notably low rate at 5 degrees C throughout all pressures. Behaviour was affected by pressure| with an increase in pressure from 50 to 100 atmospheres (atm) resulting in reduced activity. It is suggested that this species can tolerate hydrostatic pressures greater than those found in its natural bathymetric range. It is discussed that a lack of physiological cold tolerance and ecological factors| such as the need to find gastropod shells for protection| are the principal restrictions maintaining P. cuanensis to a maximum depth of approximately 250 m. We hypothesize that temperate shallow-water invertebrates could indeed be able to penetrate greater depths as continental shelf waters warm up in the course of global climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11160,2010,2,4,Benthic Composition of a Healthy Subtropical Reef: Baseline Species-Level Cover| with an Emphasis on Algae| in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands,The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) are considered to be among the most pristine coral reef ecosystems remaining on the planet. These reefs naturally contain a high percent cover of algal functional groups with relatively low coral abundance and exhibit thriving fish communities dominated by top predators. Despite their highly protected status| these reefs are at risk from both direct and indirect anthropogenic sources. This study provides the first comprehensive data on percent coverage of algae| coral| and non-coral invertebrates at the species level| and investigates spatial diversity patterns across the archipelago to document benthic communities before further environmental changes occur in response to global warming and ocean acidification. Monitoring studies show that non-calcified macroalgae cover a greater percentage of substrate than corals on many high latitude reef sites. Forereef habitats in atoll systems often contain high abundances of the green macroalga Microdictyon setchellianum and the brown macroalga Lobophora variegata| yet these organisms were uncommon in forereefs of non-atoll systems. Species of the brown macroalgal genera Padina| Sargassum| and Stypopodium and the red macroalgal genus Laurencia became increasingly common in the two northernmost atolls of the island chain but were uncommon components of more southerly islands. Conversely| the scleractinian coral Porites lobata was common on forereefs at southern islands but less common at northern islands. Currently accepted paradigms of what constitutes a "healthy'' reef may not apply to the subtropical NWHI| and metrics used to gauge reef health (e. g.| high coral cover) need to be reevaluated. 10970,2010,3,3,Beyond Copenhagen: mitigating climate change and achieving food security through soil carbon sequestration,This article explains the technical potential of C (carbon) sequestration in world soils for mitigating climate change and describes its positive impacts on agronomic productivity and global food security through the improvement of soil quality. It also supports the idea of economic development through the provision of payments to farmers in developing countries for their stewardship and enhancement of ecosystem services. These would be generated by their use of recommended management practices for improved agriculture. The technical potential of C sequestration in soils of terrestrial ecosystems and restoration of peat soils is similar to 3 Petagram (Pg) C/yr (i.e. 3 x 10(15) g=3x 109 tonnes C/yr) or 50 ppm draw down of atmospheric CO(2) by the end of the 21st century by increasing the soil C pool at a rate of 1 Mg/ha/yr. Depending upon climate and other variables| this could increase cereal and food legume production in developing countries by 32 million Mg/yr and roots and tubers by 9 million Mg/yr. It is precisely this strategy which would have received broad political support at the COP-15 meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009 from developing countries| emerging economies and the industrialized world. Addressing the issue of food-insecurity and global warming through sequestration of C in soils and the biota| along with payments to resource-poor farmers for the ecosystem services rendered| would be a timely win-win strategy. 10828,2010,3,3,Biodiesel production from waste soybean oil biomass as renewable energy and environmental recycled process,Alternative fuel is currently an important issue all over the world due to the efforts on reducing global warming which is contributed by the combustion of petroleum or petrol diesel. Biodiesel is non-toxic| biodegradable| produced from renewable sources and contributes a minimal amount of net green house gases| such as CO(2)| SO(2) and NO emissions to the atmosphere. The study was carried out to produce biodiesel from waste/recycled oils to reduce the cost of biodiesel| waste and pollution. Some important variables such as volumetric ratio| types of reactants and catalytic activities were selected to obtain a high quality biodiesel fuel within the specifications of the American Standard for Biodiesel Testing Method (ASTM D 6751) and European Norm (EN 14214). The highest biodiesel yield was obtained (71.2%) under the conditions of 1:1 volumetric oil-to-methanol weight ratio| 0.5% NaOH catalyst at 50 degrees C reaction temperature and 320 rpm stirring speed. The results showed that biodiesel produced from different oil to methanol ratios| alcohol types and shaking time exhibited considerable differences. There was also a considerable difference of biodiesel yield produced by using methanol| ethanol and 1-butanol. The biodiesel yield increased in the order of 1-butanol < ethanol < methanol. There was a little difference in viscosity| acid value and chemical elements (Fe| Mg| Ca| Na| P etc.) at different parameters. The research showed that biodiesel obtained under optimum conditions from completely waste oil was of good quality and could be used as a diesel fuel which is considered as potential use of waste cooking oil. In addition| bioenergy could be renewed and environmental recycling process could be maintained potentially using waste soybean cooking oil.
11344,2010,3,4,Biodiversity conservation and sustainable development in the Amazon,The Amazon Forest is the most biodiverse region on earth and is central in the struggle to conserve biodiversity and control global warming. Biodiversity is not homogeneously distributed in the region| but concentrated within areas of endemism (AOE) that vary in size| degree of deforestation and human pressure. Unfortunately| these differences have not been used to guide governmental policies| land occupation and conservation. Instead| a violent occupation process started 40 years ago and marked by a frontier economy pattern is still under way. To change this course and truly promote a sustainable development mode in the Amazon region| we argue that an ambitious plan that includes completely halting illegal deforestation is needed. This plan should start by resolving land tenure issues and correctly assigning specific land uses. The three major land-use types in the region include protected areas (49% of the region)| unprotected forests (39%) and altered lands (12-17%). Changing the current model of development implies shifting future uses and increasing support for these areas. This translates into three major goals: (1) adequately maintaining the integrity of the current protected areas| (2) protecting unprotected forests and (3) promoting higher productivity in deforested areas. The proportion of land-use types directed to each of these goals will depend on local socio-economic needs and conservation status| but must consider the AOE where it is present. Regional biodiversity corridors for each AOE should be planned and integrated into a large| Pan-Amazon biodiversity corridor to maintain the equilibrium of climatic and hydrological cycles. Politically| this corridor should aim at the integration of development and conservation plans beyond each country's boundary| minimizing impacts of infrastructure development and maximizing social and environmental benefits. 712,2010,3,3,Biofuels - for better or worse?,The present world population is largely fed by 'industrialised agriculture'. This| in turn| depends on massive inputs of fossil fuels. While this energy expenditure is inescapable| it is an expensive way of 'converting oil into potatoes'. Arguably| in view of global climate change| ever increasing population| ever increasing oil prices| ever diminishing availability of water and arable land| this is not sustainable. Despite the fact that biofuels inevitably compete for resources that might otherwise be used to grow| store and distribute food| they are frequently held to be desirable and feasible 'green' substitutes for fossil fuels and even that they spare carbon emissions to the atmosphere. This article challenges the absurdity of such 'retro-agriculture' (i.e. except in a few local circumstances) incurring yet more energy expenditure. It seeks to illustrate the misinformation on which some of the advocacy of biofuels has been based. 717,2010,3,3,Biofuels and sustainability,Interest in liquid biofuels production and use has increased worldwide as part of government policies to address the growing scarcity and riskiness of petroleum use| and| at least in theory| to help mitigate adverse global climate change. The existing biofuels markets are dominated by U.S. ethanol production based on cornstarch| Brazilian ethanol production based on sugarcane| and European biodiesel production based on rapeseed oil. Other promising efforts have included programs to shift toward the production and use of biofuels based on residues and waste materials from the agricultural and forestry sectors| and perennial grasses| such as switchgrass and miscanthus-so-called cellulosic ethanol. This article reviews these efforts and the recent literature in the context of ecological economics and sustainability science. Several common dimensions for sustainable biofuels are discussed: scale (resource assessment| land availability| and land use practices); efficiency (economic and energy); equity (geographic distribution of resources and the "food versus fuel" debate); socio-economic issues; and environmental effects and emissions. Recent proposals have been made for the development of sustainable biofuels criteria| culminating in standards released in Sweden in 2008 and a draft report from the international Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels. These criteria hold promise for accelerating a shift away from unsustainable biofuels based on grain| such as corn| and toward possible sustainable feedstock and production practices that may be able to meet a variety of social| economic| and environmental sustainability criteria. 622,2010,3,3,BIOGAS AS A RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCE,Renewable energy technology does not simply produce energy| heat and transport fuel| but also offers the opportunity to live in the footsteps of a reasonable future development. In Europe and other industrialized regions| the main reason for the development of renewable energy is the environment| in particular the concern in relation to global climate change and the need to improve security and diversity of energy supply. In the developing countries| they promise a new hope for renewable primary energy supply in regions without conventional energy and provide an opportunity for sustainable development. Production of "green energy" from biogas| which is among the renewable energy sources| promises an environmentally less damaging way of obtaining energy by reducing CO emissions into the environment and reduces energy dependence on imported energy sources. Biogas production is of major importance for the sustainable use of agrarian biomass as renewable energy source. 11026,2010,2,4,Biogeochemical Controls on PCB Deposition in Hudson Bay,PCB concentrations| congener patterns| and fluxes were examined in 13 dated and organically characterized (C| N| delta(13)C| delta(15)N) marine sediment cores from Hudson Bay| Canada| to investigate the importance of organic matter (OM) supply and transport to PCB sequestration. Drawdown of PCBs| supported by marine primary production| is reflected in elevated Sigma PCB concentrations and more highly chlorinated PCB signatures in surface sediments underlying eutrophic regions. Sediments in oligotrophic regions| which are dominated by "old" marine OM| have lower PCB concentrations and weathered signatures. For the surface of Hudson Bay| average atmospheric deposition appears to be very low (ca. 1.4 pg Sigma PCBs cm(-2) a(-1)) compared to fluxes reported for nearby lakes (ca. 44 pg Sigma PCBs cm(-2) a(-1)). (210)Pb fails to provide a means to normalize the fluxes| highlighting important differences in the biocycling of (210)Pb and PCBs. Unlike (210)Pb| atmospheric PCB exchange with the water's surface is partially forced by the aquatic organic carbon cycle. The extremely low atmospheric deposition of PCBs to the surface of Hudson Bay is likely a reflection of the Bay's exceptionally low productivity and vertical carbon fluxes. If future marine production and vertical flux of carbon increase due to loss of ice cover or change in river input as consequences of global warming| PCB deposition would also increase. 10434,2010,2,4,Biogeochemical implications of climate change for tropical rivers and floodplains,Large rivers of the tropics| many of which have extensive floodplains and deltas| are important in the delivery of nutrients and sediments to marine environments| in methane emission to the atmosphere and in providing ecosystem services associated with their high biological productivity. These ecosystem functions entail biogeochemical processes that will be influenced by climate change. Evidence for recent climate-driven changes in tropical rivers exists| but remains equivocal. Model projections suggest substantial future climate-driven changes| but they also underscore the complex interactions that control landscape water balances| river discharges and biogeochemical processes. The most important changes are likely to involve: (1) aquatic thermal regimes| with implications for thermal optima of plants and animals| rates of microbially mediated biogeochemical transformations| density stratification of water bodies and dissolved oxygen depletion; (2) hydrological regimes of discharge and floodplain inundation| which determine the ecological structure and function of rivers and floodplains and the extent and seasonality of aquatic environments; and (3) freshwater-seawater gradients where rivers meet oceans| affecting the distribution of marine| brackish and freshwater environments and the biogeochemical processing as river water approaches the coastal zone. In all cases| climate change affects biogeochemical processes in concert with other drivers such as deforestation and other land use changes| dams and other hydrological alterations and water withdrawals. Furthermore| changes in riverine hydrology and biogeochemistry produce potential feedbacks to climate involving biogeochemical processes such as decomposition and methane emission. Future research should seek improved understanding of these changes| and long-term monitoring should be extended to shallow waters of wetlands and floodplains in addition to the larger lakes and rivers that are most studied. 519,2010,2,4,Biogeographical and ecological context for managing threats to coral and rocky reef communities in the Lord Howe Island Marine Park| south-western Pacific,1. Quantitative subtidal surveys of fishes| macro-invertebrates and sessile organisms at 33 sites within the Lord Howe Island Marine Park revealed a rich fauna and. ora| including 164 fishes| 40 mobile invertebrate taxa| 53 coral and other sessile invertebrate taxa| 32 algal taxa| and two seagrasses. The biota in this newly-zoned marine park was overwhelmingly tropical when species lists were tabulated; however| species with distributions centred on temperate coasts of eastern Australia and New Zealand occurred in disproportionately high densities compared with the tropical species. 2. Lord Howe Island reefs were generally in good condition. Virtually no bleached coral was observed (0.2% of the reef surface; 0.8% of total hard coral cover). Living scleractinian coral comprised the predominant group of organisms growing on reef surfaces| with 25.5% cover overall. Other major taxa observed were brown algae (18.8% cover) and red algae (16.9% cover). 3. Three distinctive community types were identified within the marine park-coral reefs| macroalgal beds and an offshore/open coast community. The distribution of these community types was strongly related to wave exposure| as indicated by an extremely high correlation with the first principal coordinates axis for biotic data (R(2) = 50.80). 4. The close (<3 km) proximity of tropical coral and temperate macroalgal community types off Lord Howe Island is highly unusual| with localized patterns of nutrient enrichment suggested as the primary cause. The macroalgal community type is only known from a small area off the south-western coast that is not protected from fishing. This community is considered highly susceptible to threats because of potential impacts of global warming and the possibility of expansion of sea urchin barrens. Coral bleaching and ocean acidification associated with global climate change also threaten the coral reef community| which includes relatively high numbers of endemic and near endemic fish species. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 426,2010,4,4,Biogeographical Patterns of Marine Benthic Macroinvertebrates Along the Atlantic Coast of the Northeastern USA,The biogeography of marine benthic macroinvertebrates of US Atlantic estuaries and inshore coastal areas from Delaware Bay north to Passamaquoddy Bay was studied to compare recent data with historical biogeographic studies| define physical-chemical factors affecting species' distributions| and provide information for calibrating benthic indices of environmental condition. Five years (2000-2004) of data from 614 non-polluted| soft-bottom stations from the National Coastal Assessment were analyzed. Multidimensional scaling done on Bray-Curtis similarity matrices of species' relative abundance (547 species) suggested seven subregions: two based on salinity (oligohaline| mesohaline) and five based on latitude. Species' distribution patterns for stations with salinities >= 18 (n = 558) were strongly influenced by latitude; Cape Cod was a clear faunal transition zone (R = 0.92| p<0.001). Conversely| for stations with salinities <18 (n = 56)| salinity was the more important factor. An ordination of abiotic variables (temperature| salinity| sediment percent silt-clay| depth) correlated well with the ordination of species' relative abundance data (R=0.77| p<0.001). The first split of a multivariate regression tree was by a summer bottom temperature of 20 degrees C at Cape Cod. Salinity and percent silt-clay led to further splits. These results support the existence of Virginian and Transhatteran biogeographic provinces. They constitute a baseline for addressing broad-scale and long-term issues such as global climate change| species invasions| and conservation planning. 11138,2010,2,4,Biogeography and conservation in Southeast Asia: how 2.7 million years of repeated environmental fluctuations affect today's patterns and the future of the remaining refugial-phase biodiversity,Understanding the historical biogeography of this global biodiversity hotspot is as important to long-term conservation goals as ecology and evolution are to understanding current patterns and processes. Today's geography is| however| misleading and typical of only similar to 2% of the last million years; > 90% of that time the region's land area was 1.5-2.0 times larger as mean sea levels were 62 m below today's| climates were cooler| and extensive forests and savanna covered the emerged Sunda plains. The region's land area varied two-fold as sea levels fluctuated up to +/- 50 m with each of similar to 50 Pleistocene glacial cycles| and forests expanded and contracted with oscillations in land area and seasonality. This dynamic geographic history is relevant to the development of biogeographic regionalism and shows that it is today's forests that are refugial| not those of the Last Glacial Maximum. This history affects how species will adapt or shift their ranges in response to global warming and further decreases in land area (submergence of low-lying coastal areas) during the 21st century. The alternative is mass species extinction. The biota is also threatened by the continued destruction of forest| destruction of Mekong River flood-pulse based ecosystems| and continued human population growth. Human biogeography will become more important in conservation planning as tens of millions of people who depend on protected area forests| riverine ecosystems| and coastal habitats become environmental refugees. Conservation scientists need to become more involved in regional ecological education| environmental stewardship| and ecosystem-based adaptation to sustain as much as possible of this rich biota and the ecological services it provides. 589,2010,2,4,Biological responses to liming in boreal lakes: an assessment using plankton| macroinvertebrate and fish communities,P>1. Biological responses to liming of acidified surface waters are equivocal and limit the overall assessment of food web responses. In this study| we analysed community structure in limed| acidified and circumneutral lakes| based on the analyses of phytoplankton| zooplankton| macroinvertebrates (littoral| sublittoral| profundal) and fish between 2000 and 2004. We also studied associations between functional feeding groups in food webs. 2. Most univariate metrics of structure and function revealed similar community attributes among lake types| suggesting that community responses to natural recovery from acidification and liming management converge with those observed in circumneutral lakes. These trends were less clear in the multivariate analyses which showed significant community differences among lake types. For phytoplankton| these patterns were partly mediated by the invasive raphidophycean flagellate Gonyostomum semen. 3. The associations between functional feeding groups indicated less connectivity and food web complexity in limed lakes relative to the other lake types. We speculate that repeated lime applications comprise frequent pulse disturbances which offset the establishment of stable trophic relationships in the food webs of limed lakes. 4. Synthesis and applications. The limited structural and functional food web similarity among lake types supports the argument that liming constitutes an ecosystem-level disturbance. Managers should be aware of the ecosystem impacts of altered disturbance regimes when designing their management schemes because this can influence the success of restoration programmes. Furthermore| the lack of recovery| mediated in part by species invasions| suggests that impacts derived from global change are likely to lead to novel environmental situations. This calls for adaptive management strategies where managers are challenged to tackle multiple forms of anthropogenic stress simultaneously. 11460,2010,4,4,Biology students' conceptual structures regarding global warming,Global warming is one of the most important environmental issues to affect the present and the future of mankind. The purpose of this study was to investigate biology students' conceptual structures regarding global warming. Data were collected from 118 students using a free word association test. The results of this study have shown the conceptual structure of the participating students relating to global warming in its various aspects. It was seen that the participating students knew of| and could conceive of to a degree| at least one basic aspect of the global warming issue. However| it was also seen that the conceptual structure of these students relating to global warming was quite simple| superficial| and limited. Furthermore| it was determined that the conceptual structure of the participating students was based on the effects of this phenomenon rather than the causes and sources thereof. Moreover| these students had some alternative conceptions about global warming| and these alternative conceptions were similar to those determined during previous research. For example| some of the students were erroneously associating global warming with ozone layer depletion| skin cancer| and unleaded petrol. These results were compared with related literature and recommendations were developed. 437,2010,2,4,Biomarker assessment of organic matter sources and degradation in Canadian High Arctic littoral sediments,Carbon stocks in the High Arctic are particularly sensitive to global climate change and the investigation of the variation in organic matter (OM) composition is beneficial for improved understanding of OM vulnerability. OM biomarker characterization of solvent-extractable compounds and CuO oxidation products of littoral sedimentary OM in the Canadian Arctic was conducted to determine OM sources and decomposition patterns. The solvent-extracts contained a series of aliphatic lipids| steroids and one triterpenoid of higher plant origin as well as the low abundance of iso- and anteiso-alkanes originating from Cerastium arcticum (Arctic mouse-ear chickweed)| a native angiosperm. The carbon preference index (CPI) of the n-alkane| n-alkanol and n-alkanoic acid biomarkers suggests relatively fresh lipid material in the early stages of degradation. The CuO oxidation products were comprised of benzenes| lignin-derived phenols and short-chain diacids and hydroxyacids. A high abundance of these terrestrial biomarkers at sites close to the river inlet suggests soil-derived fluvial inputs are an important source of OM delivered to the littoral sediments. The high lignin-derived phenol ratios of acids to aldehydes suggest that lignin degradation is in a relatively advanced oxidation stage. The absence of ergosterol| a common fungal biomarker also suggests that lignin-derived OM may be preserved in soil OM and transported to littoral sediments. This representative OM characterization suggests that Arctic sedimentary OM is a mixture of recently deposited and/or preserved lipids in permafrost melt and oxidized lignin-derived OM that may become destabilized from external influences such as climate change. 11137,2010,3,3,Biomass burning| humans and climate change in Southeast Asia,Biomass burning is an integral part of the Earth system| influencing and being influenced by global climate conditions| vegetation cover and human activity. Fire has long been associated with certain vegetation types and land uses in Southeast Asia| but has increasingly affected forests in Indonesia over the last 50 years or so| and peat swamp forests in particular during the last two to three decades. The role of humans| as igniters of fires and as contributors to the conditions that enable fires once ignited to spread widely| is discussed. Other factors| notably the involvement of anomalous climate conditions linked to variability in the Indian and Pacific oceans| are also considered. Global warming and changes in landuse could result in biomass burning becoming more frequent in the future| threatening biodiversity and human health and leading to positive feedbacks with climate change. Deliberate action is required to break a developing disequilibrium within the Earth system: incentives currently being considered under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change aimed at curbing climate change-causing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation could help mitigate biomass burning| while the effective management of biochar| a stable form of carbon produced from the incomplete combustion of organic matter| by farmers in Southeast Asia| and in other regions where biomass burning is common| could help in carbon sequestration. The paper concludes by stressing that in order to be effective any action needs to recognise the full range of environmental and human factors underpinning biomass burning. 10598,2010,3,2,BIOMASS ENERGY - A WAY TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE,There is widespread concern that the energy demand of the present century far surpasses the existing traditional sources| whose burning determine| because of GHG emissions| harmful effects on the environment by enhancing the natural greenhouse effect| the main reason for global warming. In the current global ecological crisis and the limited degree of supportability of the environment| the authors of this paper highlight the importance of promoting biomass energy to achieve environmental protection as a component of sustainable development of human society in a clean environment free from environmental risks. 11394,2010,3,4,Biomethanation of solid wastes: analysis of case studies,Management of the organic fraction of urban solid waste using anaerobic procedures will contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions| and using biogas| which is a carbon neutral energy| to generate electrical energy will eventually help in reducing the combustion of fossil fuel. Energy recovery in the form of biogas from Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) generated in three different locations is studied. The present status of the biomethanation plants at these locations is reviewed and analysed| in order to understand the prospects of biomethanation as a technological option for managing the increasing urban solid waste sustainability. In spite of the fact that biomethanation is an established technology worldwide| including India| the scale-up of the same has become an uphill task| both for the Central Government and the Urban Local Bodies. Biomethanation for processing the organic fraction of urban solid wastes needs a lot of planning| not only with respect to the design| construction and operation| but also with institutionalising the concept of integrated solid waste management| without which biomethanation would not be a viable option. 10752,2010,5,4,Biophysical feedbacks between the Pleistocene megafauna extinction and climate: The first human-induced global warming?,A large increase in Betula during a narrow 1000 year window| similar to 13|800 years before present (YBP) in Alaska and Yukon corresponded in time with the extinction of mammoths and the arrival of humans. Pollen data indicate the increase in Betula during this time was widespread across Siberia and Beringia. We hypothesize that Betula increased due to a combination of a warming climate and reduced herbivory following the extinction of the Pleistocene mega herbivores. The rapid increase in Betula modified land surface albedo which climate-model simulations indicate would cause an average net warming of similar to 0.021 degrees C per percent increase in high latitude (53-73 degrees N) Betula cover. We hypothesize that the extinction of mammoths increased Betula cover| which would have warmed Siberia and Beringia by on average 0.2 degrees C| but regionally by up to 1 degrees C. If humans were partially responsible for the extinction of the mammoths| then human influences on global climate predate the origin of agriculture. Citation: Doughty| C. E.| A. Wolf| and C. B. Field (2010)| Biophysical feedbacks between the Pleistocene megafauna extinction and climate: The first human-induced global warming?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L15703| doi:10.1029/2010GL043985. 10900,2010,3,4,Biorefining of lignocellulosic feedstock - Technical| economic and environmental considerations,Biorefinery| an example of a multiple products system| integrates biomass conversion processes and equipment to produce fuels| power and chemicals from biomass. This study focuses on technical design| economic and environmental analysis of a lignocellulosic feedstock (LCF) biorefinery producing ethanol| succinic acid| acetic acid and electricity. As the potential worldwide demand of succinic acid and its derivatives can reach 30 million tons per year| succinic acid is a promising high-value product if production cost and market price are substantially lowered. The results of the economic analysis show that the designed refinery has great potentials compared to the single-output ethanol plant; even when the price of succinic acid is lowered or the capital investment doubled. In terms of eco-efficiency| the LCF biorefinery shows better environmental performances mainly in global warming potential due to CO(2) fixation during acid fermentation. The overall evaluation of the eco-efficiency depends on the importance attached to each impact category. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 524,2010,2,4,Biotic attrition from tropical forests correcting for truncated temperature niches,Species migration in response to warming temperatures is expected to lead to 'biotic attrition|' or loss of local diversity| in areas where the number of species emigrating or going locally extinct exceeds the number immigrating. Biotic attrition is predicted be especially severe in the low-lying hot tropics since elevated temperatures may surpass the observed tolerances of most extant species. It is possible| however| that the estimated temperature niches of many species are inaccurate and truncated with respect to their true tolerances due to the absence of hotter areas under current global climate. If so| these species will be capable of persisting in some areas where future temperatures exceed current temperatures| reducing rates of biotic attrition. Here| we use natural history collections data to estimate the realized thermal niches of > 2000 plant species from the tropical forests of South America. In accord with the truncation hypothesis| we find that the thermal niches of species from hot lowland areas are several degrees narrower than the thermal niches of species from cooler areas. We estimate rates of biotic attrition for South American tropical forests due to temperature increases ranging from 1 to 5 degrees C| and under two niche assumptions. The first is that the observed thermal niches truly reflect the plant's tolerances and that the reduction in niche breadth is due to increased specialization. The second is that lowland species have the same mean thermal niche breadth as nonlowland and nonequatorial species. The differences between these two models are dramatic. For example| using observed thermal niches we predict an almost complete loss of plant diversity in most South American tropical forests due to a 5 degrees C temperature increase| but correcting for possible niche truncation we estimate that most forests will retain > 50-70% of their current species richness. The different predictions highlight the importance of using fundamental vs. realized niches in predicting the responses of species to global climate change. 11529,2010,2,4,Biotope refuges of some apterous weevils of Rhone-Alpes,Biotope refuges of some apterous weevils of Rhone-Alpes In the large world of the weevils we observe a lot of apterous genera. Paradoxically these ground-living species of special interest are very poorly known. They live in a large diversity of biotopes present in the Rhone-Alpes region. While Dichotrachelus species are stricly localised on mountain-tops (Alps and Massif central)| Cycloderes species are exclusively attached to scrubland of southerne Ardeche. This underappreciated richness| difficult to assess| is under threat due to human activity and global warming. It must be preserved 11046,2010,3,4,Biotransformation of 2|3|3|3-tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234yf) in rabbits,2|3|3|3-Tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234yf) is a non-ozone-depleting fluorocarbon replacement with a low global warming potential and is developed as refrigerant Due to lethality observed after high concentration inhalation exposures of HFO-1234yf in a developmental toxicity study with rabbits| the biotransformation of HFO-1234yf was investigated in this species. Female New Zealand White rabbits were exposed to air containing 2000; 10|000; or 50|000 ppm (n =3/concentration) HFO234yf. All inhalation exposures were conducted for 6 h in a dynamic exposure chamber. Animals were individually housed in metabolic cages after the end of the exposures and urines were collected at 12 h intervals for 60 h. For metabolite identification| urine samples were analyzed by (1)H-coupled and (1)H-decoupled (19)F-NMR and by LC/MS-MS or GC/MS. Metabolites were identified by (19)F-NMR chemical shifts| signal multiplicity| (1)H-(19)F coupling constants and by comparison with synthetic reference compounds. In urine samples of rabbits exposed to 2000; 10|000; or 50|000 ppm HFO-1234yf| the predominant metabolite was N-acetyl-S-(3|3|3-trifluoro-2-hydroxypropanyl)-L-cysteine and accounted for app. 48% of total (19)F-NMR signal intensities. S-(3|3|3-Trifluoro-2-hydroxypropanyl)mercaptolactic acid| 3|3|3-trifluoro-1|2-dihydroxypropane| 3|3|3-trifluoro-2-propanol and inorganic fluoride were also present as urinary metabolites. In incubations of rabbit liver S9 fractions containing glutathione| NADPH and HFO-1234yf| 3|3|3-trifluoro-1|2-dihydroxypropane| S-(3|3|3-trifluoro-2-hydroxypropanyl)glutathione| 3|3|3-trifluoro-2-propanol and inorganic fluoride were identified as metabolites of HFO-1234yf by (19)F-NMR. The quantity of recovered metabolites in urine suggest a low extent (<0.1% of dose received) of biotransformation of HFO-1234yf in rabbits| and 95% of all metabolites were excreted within 12 h after the end of the exposures (t(1/2) app. 9.5 h). The obtained results indicate that HFO-1234yf is metabolized in rabbits by a CYP450-mediated epoxidation at low rates and glutathione conjugation of the epoxide. The differences in urinary metabolite patterns between rats and rabbits seen with HFO-1234yf are likely due to species-specific processing of glutathione S-conjugates. Rabbits also show a larger extent of biotransformation of HFO-1234yf. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 11022,2010,3,4,Biotransformations of carbon dioxide in photobioreactors,Laboratory experiments were performed to study the capacity of CO(2) sequestration and carbon fixation into biomass during the cultivation of the cyanobacteria Aphanothece microscopica Nageli in refinery wastewater. The influence of the photoperiod (day/night) on the rates of CO(2) sequestration and O(2) release was also determined. Rates of CO(2) sequestration were measured both in the liquid and gaseous phases. The results showed that the capacity of CO(2) sequestration and O(2) release during the day/night experiment was about one-fourth less than that achieved in the continuously illuminated experiment. Equivalence was found between rates of CO(2) sequestration measured in the two phases. Despite large amounts of CO2 that were sequestered during the cultivation| it is demonstrated that only a small fraction (about 3%) was effectively fixed as microalgae biomass| indicating the existence of other routes of CO(2) conversion in the photobioreactor. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10929,2010,2,4,Black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) growth divergence along a latitudinal gradient in Western Mediterranean mountains,Most studies of tree-growth and climate report positive responses to global warming in high latitudes and negative responses at lower ones. We analyzed tree-ring width of Pinus nigra Arn. along a 500 km latitudinal transect in the Iberian Peninsula to study the temporal trend and climate forcing in tree radial growth during the last century. Tree growth was enhanced by cool summers and moist cold seasons. Increased moisture stress has decreased tree growth rates. However| we present evidence of growth increases in some trees in all sampled populations after 1980's. Climate change negatively (positively) affected between 72% (5%) of trees in the southern populations and 40% (25%) in the north Trees with positive growth trends were favored by winter temperatures and their abundance was inversely correlated with forest productivity. Our findings add evidences of tree growth divergence in the Mediterranean basin and show the gradual transition between forests where positive (temperate and boreal) and negative (Mediterranean) growth trends dominate. 10601,2010,2,2,Brazilian Atlantic Forest lato sensu: the most ancient Brazilian forest| and a biodiversity hotspot| is highly threatened by climate change,After 500 years of exploitation and sestruction the Brazilian Atlantic Forest has been reduced to less the 8% of its original cover| and climate change may pose a new threat ot the remnants of this biodiversity hotspot In this study we used modelling techniques to determine present and future geographical distribution of 38 species of trees that are typical of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (Mata Atlantica) considering two global warming scenarios The optimistic scenario| based in a 0 5% increase in the concentration of CO(2) in the atmaosphere| predicts an increase of up to 2 degrees C in the Earth s average temperature in the pessimistic scenario based on a 1% increase in the concentration of CO(2) in the atmosphere temperature increase may reach 4 degrees C Using these parameters the occurence points of the studied species registered in literature| the Genetic Algorithm for Rule set Predictions/GARP and Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions/MaxEnt we developed models of present and future possible occurence of each species considering Earth's mean temeprature by 2050 with the optimistic and the pessimistic scenarios of CO(2) emission The results obtained show an alarming reduction in the area of possible occurence of the species studied as well as a shift towards southern areas of Brazil Using GARP on average in the optimistic scenario this reduction is of 25% while in the pessimsistic scenario it reaches 50% and the species that will suffer the worst reduction in their possible aarea of occurrence are Euterpe edulis Mollinedia schottiana Virola bicuhyba Inga sessilis and Vochyasta magnifica Using MaxEnt| on average in the optimistic scenario the reducation will be of 20% while in the pessimsistic secenario it reaches 30%| and the species that will suffer the worst reduciton are Hyeronima alchorneoides Schefflera angustissima Andira fraxinifolia and the species of Myrtaceae studied 514,2010,2,3,Building resilience into practical conservation: identifying local management responses to global climate change in the southern Great Barrier Reef,Climate change is now considered the greatest long-term threat to coral reefs| with some future change inevitable despite mitigation efforts. Managers must therefore focus on supporting the natural resilience of reefs| requiring that resilient reefs and reef regions be identified. We develop a framework for assessing resilience and trial it by applying the framework to target management responses to climate change on the southern Great Barrier Reef. The framework generates a resilience score for a site based on the evaluation of 19 differentially weighted indicators known or thought to confer resilience to coral reefs. Scores are summed| and sites within a region are ranked in terms of (1) their resilience relative to the other sites being assessed| and (2) the extent to which managers can influence their resilience. The framework was applied to 31 sites in Keppel Bay of the southern Great Barrier Reef| which has a long history of disturbance and recovery. Resilience and 'management influence potential' were both found to vary widely in Keppel Bay| informing site selection for the staged implementation of resilience-based management strategies. The assessment framework represents a step towards making the concept of resilience operational to reef managers and conservationists. Also| it is customisable| easy to teach and implement and effective in building support among local communities and stakeholders for management responses to climate change. 10932,2010,4,4,Calculation of beach change under interacting cross-shore and longshore processes,This paper presents a mathematical approach and numerical model that simulates beach and dune change in response to cross-shore processes of dune growth by wind and dune erosion by storms| and by gradients in longshore sand transport that will alter shoreline position. Sub-aerial transport processes are represented| whereas sub-aqueous transport is neglected. The system is tightly coupled morphologically| with the berm playing a central role. For example| the potential for sand to be transported to the dune by wind depends on berm width| and sand lost in erosion of the dune during storms can widen the berm. Morphologic equilibrium considerations are introduced to improve reliability of predictions and stability of the non-linear model. An analytical solution is given under simplification to illustrate properties of the model. Sensitivity tests with the numerical solution of the coupled equations demonstrate model performance| with one test exploring beach and dune response to potential increase in storm-wave height with global warming. Finally| the numerical model is applied to examine the consequences of groin shortening at Westhampton Beach| Long Island| New York| as an alternative for providing a sand supply to the down-drift beach. Results indicate that the sand will be released over several decades as the shoreline and dune move landward in adjustment to the new equilibrium condition with the shortened groins. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11448,2010,3,3,Calculation of phase equilibrium for water plus carbon dioxide system using nonrandom lattice fluid equation of state,For the geological sequestration of carbon dioxide to prevent global warming| the phase equilibrium data for water and carbon dioxide mixture play an important role in process design and operation. In this work| the nonrandom lattice fluid equation of state with hydrogen bonding (NLF-HB EOS) was applied for the prediction of phase equilibrium of mixtures containing water and carbon dioxide. A new set of pure component parameters for carbon dioxide above critical condition was found and optimum binary interaction parameters were reported to correlate mutual solubility of mixtures. The calculated results were compared with the Peng-Robinson Equation of State with the conventional mixing rule (PR-EOS) and the Wong-Sandler mixing rule (PR-WS-EOS). The calculation results show that NLF-HB EOS can correlate mutual solubility of water+carbon dioxide mixtures with reasonable accuracy within a single theoretical framework. 10400,2010,2,3,Can Global Warming Strengthen the East Asian Summer Monsoon?,The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) tends to be intensified in a global-warming scenario| with a weakened linkage with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| but how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) responds is still an open question. This study investigates the responses of the EASM from observations| theoretical| and modeling perspectives. Observational and theoretical evidence demonstrates that| in contrast to the dramatic global-warming trend within the past 50 years| the regional-mean EASM rainfall is basically dominated by considerable interannual-to-decadal fluctuations| concurrent with enhanced precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and over southern Japan and suppressed rainfall amount over the South China and Philippine Seas. From 1958 through 2008| the EASM circulation exhibits a southward shift in its major components (the subtropical westerly jet stream| the western Pacific Ocean subtropical high| the subtropical mei-yu-baiu-changma front| and the tropical monsoon trough). Such a southward shift is very likely or in part due to the meridional asymmetric warming with the most prominent surface warming in the midhigh latitudes (45 degrees-60 degrees N)| which induces a weakened meridional thermal contrast over eastern Asia. Another notable feature is the enhanced ENSO EASM relationship within the past 50 years| which is opposite to the ISM. Fourteen state-of-the-art coupled models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that the EASM strength does not respond with any pronounced trend to the global-warming "A1B" forcing scenario (with an atmospheric CO(2) concentration of 720 ppm) but shows interannual-to-decadal variations in the twenty-first century (2000-99). These results indicate that the primary response of the EASM to a warming climate may be a position change instead of an intensity change| and such position change may lead to spatial coexistence of floods and droughts over eastern Asia as has been observed in the past 50 years. 11156,2010,2,4,Can in situ floats and satellite altimeters detect long-term changes in Atlantic Ocean overturning?,Global warming has been predicted to slow the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)| resulting in significant regional climate impacts across the North Atlantic and beyond. Here| satellite observations of sea surface height (SSH) along with temperature| salinity and velocity from profiling floats are used to estimate changes in the northward-flowing| upper limb of the AMOC at latitudes around 41 degrees N. The 2004 through 2006 mean overturning is found to be 15.5 +/- 2.4 Sv (10(6) m(3)/s) with somewhat smaller seasonal and interannual variability than at lower latitudes. There is no significant trend in overturning strength between 2002 and 2009. Altimeter data| however| suggest an increase of 2.6 Sv since 1993| consistent with North Atlantic warming during this same period. Despite significant seasonal to interannual fluctuations| these observations demonstrate that substantial slowing of the AMOC did not occur during the past 7 years and is unlikely to have occurred in the past 2 decades. Citation: Willis| J. K. (2010)| Can in situ floats and satellite altimeters detect long-term changes in Atlantic Ocean overturning?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L06602| doi: 10.1029/2010GL042372. 10595,2010,2,3,Can ocean acidification affect population dynamics of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides at its southern range edge?,The global ocean and atmosphere are warming. There is increasing evidence suggesting that| in addition to other environmental factors| climate change is affecting species distributions and local population dynamics. Additionally| as a consequence of the growing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2))| the oceans are taking up increasing amounts of this CO(2)| causing ocean pH to decrease (ocean acidification). The relative impacts of ocean acidification on population dynamics have yet to be investigated| despite many studies indicating that there will be at least a sublethal impact on many marine organisms| particularly key calcifying organisms. Using empirical data| we forced a barnacle (Semibalanus balanoides) population model to investigate the relative influence of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification on a population nearing the southern limit of its geographic distribution. Hindcast models were compared to observational data from Cellar Beach (southwestern United Kingdom). Results indicate that a declining pH trend (-0.0017 unit/yr)| indicative of ocean acidification over the past 50 years| does not cause an observable impact on the population abundance relative to changes caused by fluctuations in temperature. Below the critical temperature (here T(crit) = 13.1 degrees C)| pH has a more significant affect on population dynamics at this southern range edge. However| above this value| SST has the overriding influence. At lower SST| a decrease in pH (according to the National Bureau of Standards| pH(NBS)) from 8.2 to 7.8 can significantly decrease the population abundance. The lethal impacts of ocean acidification observed in experiments on early life stages reduce cumulative survival by similar to 25%| which again will significantly alter the population level at this southern limit. Furthermore| forecast predictions from this model suggest that combined acidification and warming cause this local population to die out 10 years earlier than would occur if there was only global warming and no concomitant decrease in pH. 11397,2010,3,4,Can oceanic foams limit global warming?,When the diverse methods proposed for solar radiation management are surveyed| a relatively simple| environmentally acceptable| double-acting mechanism for increasing the earth's albedo emerges. It is a low-level environmental intervention that enhances a mechanism already active in nature by increasing the foam fraction of the ocean surface. Bubble rafts increase the optical reflectivity of the ocean and when bubbles burst| they launch seasalt particles that loft and increase the number concentration of cloud droplets in the marine boundary layer| thus increasing the reflectivity of stratocumulus. A strategy based on recent research for producing microbubbles appears to be the best option for large-scale use. 668,2010,2,4,Can storms and shore armouring exert additive effects on sandy-beach habitats and biota?,Increased storminess is a likely consequence of global climate change; its effects may be most dramatic on coasts dominated by sandy beaches. This scenario demands that the impacts of storms and the role of armouring structures| constructed as storm defences| are better understood. Here| we assess how a relatively small storm affected beach morphology and macrobenthos| and whether a seawall can modulate such impacts. The study system was a small (< 1.5 km long) beach| bisected into parts with and without a seawall. The beach became narrower and steeper during the storm| when 26% of the subaerial sediment prism eroded from the armoured section; sand losses on the unarmoured part were one-fifth of those on the armoured part. Densities of ghost crabs (Ocypode) dropped significantly (36%) and were to some extent modulated by shore armouring; losses were high (62%) just seawards of the seawall where post-storm densities remained consistently lower. There was no ecological recovery in the short term| with most (83%) post-storm density values of crabs being lower| and crab counts in front of the seawall being depressed up to 3 months after the storm. Seawalls can change the resilience of beaches to storms| which may result in stronger ecological effects on armoured coasts. 10415,2010,2,4,Canine visceral leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania infantum in Senegal: risk of emergence in humans?,In the context of global warming and the risk of spreading arthropod-borne diseases| the emergence and reemergence of leishmaniasis should not be neglected. In Senegal| over the past few years| cases of canine leishmaniasis have been observed. We aim to improve the understanding of the transmission cycle of this zoonosis| to determine the responsible species and to evaluate the risk for human health. An epidemiological and serological study on canine and human populations in the community of Mont Rolland (Thies area) was conducted. The data showed a high seroprevalence of canine leishmaniasis (>40%) and more than 30% seropositive people. The dogs' seroprevalence was confirmed by PCR data (concordance > 0.85| Kappa > 0.7). The statistical analysis showed strong statistical associations between the health status of dogs and seropositivity| the number of positive PCRs| clinical signs and the number of Leishmania isolates. For the first time| the discriminative PCRs performed on canine Leishmania strains clearly evidenced that the pathogenic agent is Leishmania infantum. The results obtained show that transmission of this species is well established in this area. That the high incidence of seropositivity in humans may be a consequence of infection with this species is discussed. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS on behalf of the Institut Pasteur. 11309,2010,3,3,Carbon accumulation at depth in Ferralsols under zero-till subtropical agriculture,Conservation agriculture can provide a low-cost competitive option to mitigate global warming with reduction or elimination of soil tillage and increase soil organic carbon (SOC). Most studies have evaluated the impact of zero till (ZT) only on surface soil layers (down to 30 cm)| and few studies have been performed on the potential for C accumulation in deeper layers (0-100 cm) of tropical and subtropical soils. In order to determine whether the change from conventional tillage (CT) to ZT has induced a net gain in SOC| three long-term experiments (15-26 years) on free-draining Ferralsols in the subtropical region of South Brazil were sampled and the SOC stocks to 30 and 100 cm calculated on an equivalent soil mass basis. In rotations containing intercropped or cover-crop legumes| there were significant accumulations of SOC in ZT soils varying from 5 to 8 Mg ha-1 in comparison with CT management| equivalent to annual soil C accumulation rates of between 0.04 and 0.88 Mg ha-1. However| the potential for soil C accumulation was considerably increased (varying from 0.48 to 1.53 Mg ha-1 yr-1) when considering the soil profile down to 100 cm depth. On average the estimate of soil C accumulation to 100 cm depth was 59% greater than that for soil C accumulated to 30 cm. These findings suggest that increasing sampling depth from 30 cm (as presently recommended by the IPCC) to 100 cm| may increase substantially the estimates of potential CO(2) mitigation induced by the change from CT to ZT on the free-draining Ferralsols of the tropics and subtropics. It was evident that that legumes which contributed a net input of biologically fixed N played an important role in promoting soil C accumulation in these soils under ZT| perhaps due to a slow-release of N from decaying surface residues/roots which favored maize root growth. 484,2010,2,4,Carbon density and distribution of six Chinese temperate forests,Quantifying forest carbon (C) storage and distribution is important for forest C cycling studies and terrestrial ecosystem modeling. Forest inventory and allometric approaches were used to measure C density and allocation in six representative temperate forests of similar stand age (42-59 years old) and growing under the same climate in northeastern China. The forests were an aspen-birch forest| a hardwood forest| a Korean pine plantation| a Dahurian larch plantation| a mixed deciduous forest| and a Mongolian oak forest. There were no significant differences in the C densities of ecosystem components (except for detritus) although the six forests had varying vegetation compositions and site conditions. However| the differences were significant when the C pools were normalized against stand basal area. The total ecosystem C density varied from 186.9 tC hm(-2) to 349.2 tC hm(-2) across the forests. The C densities of vegetation| detritus| and soil ranged from 86.3-122.7 tC hm(-2)| 6.5-10.5 tC hm(-2)| and 93.7-220.1 tC hm(-2)| respectively| which accounted for 39.7% +/- 7.1% (mean +/- SD)| 3.3% +/- 1.1%| and 57.0% +/- 7.9% of the total C densities| respectively. The overstory C pool accounted for > 99% of the total vegetation C pool. The foliage biomass| small root (diameter < 5mm) biomass| root-shoot ratio| and small root to foliage biomass ratio varied from 2.08-4.72 tC hm(-2)| 0.95-3.24 tC hm(-2)| 22.0%-28.3%| and 34.5%-122.2%| respectively. The Korean pine plantation had the lowest foliage production efficiency (total biomass/foliage biomass: 22.6 g g(-1)) among the six forests| while the Dahurian larch plantation had the highest small root production efficiency (total biomass/small root biomass: 124.7 g g(-1)). The small root C density decreased with soil depth for all forests except for the Mongolian oak forest| in which the small roots tended to be vertically distributed downwards. The C density of coarse woody debris was significantly less in the two plantations than in the four naturally regenerated forests. The variability of C allocation patterns in a specific forest is jointly influenced by vegetation type| management history| and local water and nutrient availability. The study provides important data for developing and validating C cycling models for temperate forests. 449,2010,2,3,Carbon dioxide and methane fluxes from Arctic mudboils,Climate change is expected to alter the Arctic's carbon (C) balance and changes in these C-rich ecosystems may contribute to a positive feedback on global climate change. Low-center mudboils| a form of patterned ground in the Arctic| are distinct landforms in which the exchange of greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and soil has not been fully characterized| but which may have an important influence on the overall C balance of tundra ecosystems. Chamber systems were used to sample net ecosystem exchange of CO(2) (NEE) and CO(2) and CH(4) effluxes along a 35-m transect intersecting two mudboils in a wet sedge fen in Canada's Southern Arctic (lat. 64 degrees 52'N| long. 111 degrees 34'W) during the summer months in 2008. Mudboil features gave rise to dramatic variations in vegetation| soil temperature and thaw depth| and soil organic matter content along this transect. Variations in NEE were driven by variations in the amount of vascular vegetation| while CO(2) and CH(4) effluxes were remarkably similar among the two mudboil (CO(2) effluxes: 1.1 +/- 0.9 and 1.4 +/- 0.7 mu mol m(-2) s(-1); CH(4) effluxes: 83.1 +/- 189.4 and 23.1 +/- 9.4 nmol m(-2) s(-1)| +/-1 standard deviation) and the sedge fen (CO(2) effluxes: 1.6 +/- 0.7 mu mol m(-2) s(-1); CH(4) effluxes: 28.0 +/- 62.0 nmol m(-2) s(-1)) sampling areas. Vegetation appeared to play an important role in limiting temporal variations in CH(4) effluxes through plant mediated transport in both mudboil and sedge fen sampling areas. One of the mudboils had negligible vascular plant colonization presumably due to more active frost heave processes. The relatively high CO(2) and CH(4) efflux in this mudboil area was speculated to be a result of growth and decomposition of cryptogamic organisms| inflow of dissolved organic C| and warmer soil temperatures. 613,2010,3,3,Carbon Dioxide Emission Implications if Hydrofluorocarbons are Regulated: A Refrigeration Case Study,The U.S. is strongly considering regulating hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) due to their global climate change forcing effects. A drop-in replacement hydrofluoroether has been evaluated using a gate-to-grave life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions for the trade-offs between direct and indirect carbon dioxide equivalent emissions compared to a current HFC and a historically used refrigerant. The results indicate current regulations being considered may increase global climate change. 11466,2010,3,3,Carbon dioxide emissions and other environmental indicators: contribution to the study of the European situation between 1990 and 2005,The Kyoto Protocol| adopted on 11 December 1997| was elaborated as a means to control the risk of global warming from greenhouse gases| while improving the human condition. This paper is an attempt to answer the following main questions: Does the Protocol signature have any immediate impact on countries behaviour? Is the speed of changes similar to all European countries? Are there any allometric scaling relations between the measure of country's dynamic (CO(2) emission or other environmental parameter) and the country's size (population or Gross Domestic Product)? In case of differences among European countries| are these scaling relations relevant to explain the differences? This paper examines the differences between 2 time intervals (i.e.| 1990-1997 and 1998-2005)| regarding CO(2) and other environmental indicators in 15 European countries. 10652,2010,2,4,Carbon dioxide exchange in a semidesert grassland through drought-induced vegetation change,Global warming may intensify the hydrological cycle and lead to increased drought severity and duration| which could alter plant community structure and subsequent ecosystem water and carbon dioxide cycling. We report on the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) of a semidesert grassland through a severe drought which drove succession from native bunchgrasses to forbs and to eventual dominance by an exotic bunchgrass. We monitored NEE and energy fluxes using eddy covariance coupled with meteorological and soil moisture variables for 6 years at a grassland site in southeastern Arizona| USA. Seasonal NEE typically showed a springtime carbon uptake after winter-spring periods of average rainfall followed by much stronger sink activity during the summer rainy season. The two severe drought years (2004 and 2005) resulted in a net release of carbon dioxide (25 g C m(-2)) and widespread mortality of native perennial bunchgrasses. Above average summer rains in 2006 alleviated drought conditions| resulting in a large flush of broad-leaved forbs and negative total NEE (-55 g C m(-2) year(-1)). Starting in 2007 and continuing through 2009| the ecosystem became increasingly dominated by the exotic grass| Eragrostis lehmanniana| and was a net carbon sink (-47 to -98 g C m(-2) year(-1)) but with distinct annual patterns in NEE. Rainfall mediated by soils was the key driver to water and carbon fluxes. Seasonal respiration and photosynthesis were strongly dependent on precipitation| but photosynthesis was more sensitive to rainfall variation. Respiration normalized by evapotranspiration showed no interannual variation| while normalized gross ecosystem production (i.e.| water use efficiency) was low during drought years and then increased as the rains returned and the E. lehmanniana invasion progressed. Thus| when dry summer conditions returned in 2009| the potential for ecosystem carbon accumulation was increased and the ecosystem remained a net sink unlike similar dry years when native grasses dominated ecosystem structure. 10798,2010,2,4,Carbon dioxide| methane| and nitrous oxide exchanges in an age-sequence of temperate pine forests,We investigated soil carbon dioxide (CO(2))| methane (CH(4))| and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) exchanges in an age-sequence (4| 17| 32| 67 years old) of eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.) forests in southern Ontario| Canada| for the period of mid-April to mid-December in 2006 and 2007. For both CH(4) and N(2)O| we observed uptake and emission ranging from -160 to 245 mu g CH(4) m-2 h-1 and -52 to 21 mu g N(2)O m-2 h-1| respectively (negative values indicate uptake). Mean fluxes from mid-April to mid-December across the 4| 17| 32| 67 years old stands were similar for CO(2) fluxes (259| 246| 220| and 250 mg CO(2) m-2 h-1| respectively)| without pattern for N(2)O fluxes (-3.7| 1.5| -2.2| and -7.6 mu g N(2)O m-2 h-1| respectively)| whereas the uptake rates of CH(4) increased with stand age (6.4| -7.9| -10.8| and -23.3 mu g CH(4) m-2 h-1| respectively). For the same period| the combined contribution of CH(4) and N(2)O exchanges to the global warming potential (GWP) calculated from net ecosystem exchange of CO(2) and aggregated soil exchanges of CH(4) and N(2)O was on average 4%| < 1%| < 1%| and 2% for the 4| 17| 32| 67 years old stand| respectively. Soil CO(2) fluxes correlated positively with soil temperature but had no relationship with soil moisture. We found no control of soil temperature or soil moisture on CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes| but CH(4) emission was observed following summer rainfall events. LFH layer removal reduced CO(2) emissions by 43%| increased CH(4) uptake during dry and warm soil conditions by more than twofold| but did not affect N(2)O flux. We suggest that significant alternating sink and source potentials for both CH(4) and N(2)O may occur in N- and soil water-limited forest ecosystems| which constitute a large portion of forest cover in temperate areas. 558,2010,3,4,Carbon dynamics in subtropical forest soil: effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment and nitrogen addition,The levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO(2)]) are rapidly increasing. Understanding carbon (C) dynamics in soil is important for assessing the soil C sequestration potential under elevated [CO(2)]. Nitrogen (N) is often regarded as a limiting factor in the soil C sequestration under future CO(2) enrichment environment. However| few studies have been carried out to examine what would happen in the subtropical or tropical areas where the ambient N deposition is high. In this study| we used open-top chambers to study the effect of elevated atmospheric [CO(2)] alone and together with N addition on the soil C dynamics in the first 4 years of the treatments applied in southern China. Above- and below-ground C input (tree biomass) into soil| soil respiration| soil organic C| and total N as well as dissolved organic C (DOC) were measured periodically in each of the open-top chambers. Soil samples were collected randomly in each chamber from each of the soil layers (0-20| 20-40| and 40-60 cm) using a standard soil sampling tube (2.5-cm inside diameter). Soil leachates were collected at the bottom of the chamber below-ground walls in stainless steel boxes. The highest above- and below-ground C input into soil was found in the high CO(2) and high N treatment (CN)| followed by the only high N treatment (N+)| the only high CO(2) treatment (C+)| and then the control (CK) without any CO(2) enrichment or N addition. DOC in the leachates was small for all the treatments. Export of DOC played a minor role in C cycling in our experiment. Generally| soil respiration rate in the chambers followed the order: CN treatment > C + treatment > N + treatment > the control. Except for the C+ treatment| there were no significant differences in soil total N among the CN treatment| N + treatment| and the control. Overall| soil organic C (SOC) was significantly affected by the treatments (p < 0.0001). SOC for all the soil layers in the treatments followed the order: CN treatment > N + treatment > C + treatment = CK treatment. Compared with the control| the higher SOC in the CN and N+ treatment was due to the greater above- and below-ground C input. The increased soil respiration in the C+ treatment led to the lower SOC. Elevated atmospheric [CO(2)] in the subtropical China accelerated soil C sequestration in this area; however| this increase would still need additional N input. The increased soil C pool was due to the enhanced tree growth. Special climatic condition in this area and the high density of tree planting might further accelerate soil C sequestration in this area. 429,2010,2,4,Carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau during the 20th century: an analysis with a process-based biogeochemical model,Aim The Tibetan Plateau accounts for about a quarter of the total land area of China and has a variety of ecosystems ranging from alpine tundra to evergreen tropics. Its soils are dominated by permafrost and are rich in organic carbon. Its climate is unique due to the influence of the Asian monsoon and its complex topography. To date| the carbon dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau have not been well quantified under changes of climate and permafrost conditions. Here we use a process-based biogeochemistry model| the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)| which was incorporated with a soil thermal model| to examine the permafrost dynamics and their effects on carbon dynamics on the plateau during the past century. Location The Tibetan Plateau. Methods We parameterize and verify the TEM using the existing data for soil temperature| permafrost distribution and carbon and nitrogen from the region. We then extrapolate the model and parameters to the whole plateau. Results During the 20th century| the Tibetan Plateau changed from a small carbon source or neutral in the early part of the century to a sink later| with a large inter-annual and spatial variability due to changes of climate and permafrost conditions. Net primary production and soil respiration increased by 0.52 and 0.22 Tg C year-1| respectively| resulting in a regional carbon sink increase of 0.3 Tg C year-1. By the end of the century| the regional carbon sink reached 36 Tg C year-1 and carbon storage in vegetation and soils is 32 and 16 Pg C| respectively. On the plateau| from west to east| the net primary production| soil respiration and net ecosystem production increased| due primarily to the increase of air temperature and precipitation and lowering elevation. In contrast| the decrease of carbon fluxes from south to north was primarily controlled by precipitation gradient. Dynamics of air temperature and associated soil temperature and active layer depth resulted in a higher plant carbon uptake than soil carbon release| strengthening the regional carbon sink during the century. Main conclusions We found that increasing soil temperature and deepening active layer depth enhanced soil respiration| increasing the net nitrogen mineralization rate. Together with the effects of warming air temperature and rising CO(2) concentrations on photosynthesis| the stronger plant nitrogen uptake due to the enhanced available nitrogen stimulates plant carbon uptake| thereby strengthening the regional carbon sink as the rate of increase net primary production was faster than that of soil respiration. Further| the warming and associated soil thermal dynamics shifted the regional carbon sink from the middle of July in the early 20th century to early July by the end of the century. Our study suggests that soil thermal dynamics should be considered for future quantification of carbon dynamics in this climate-sensitive region. 394,2010,3,3,Carbon emission trading and carbon taxes under uncertainties,The idea of market-based carbon emission trading and carbon taxes is gaining in popularity as a global climate change policy instrument. However| these mechanisms might not necessarily have a positive outcome unless their value reflects socioeconomic and environmental impacts and regulations. Moreover| the fact that they have various inherent exogenous and endogenous uncertainties raises serious concerns about their ability to reduce emissions in a cost-effective way. This paper aims to introduce a simple stochastic model that allows the robustness of economic mechanisms for emission reduction under multiple natural and human-related uncertainties to be analyzed. Unlike standard equilibrium state analysis| the model shows that the explicit introduction of uncertainties regarding emissions| abatement costs| and equilibrium states makes it almost impossible for existing market-based trading and carbon taxes to be environmentally safe and cost-effective. Here we propose a computerized multi-agent trading model. This can be viewed as a prototype to simulate an emission trading market that is regulated in a decentralized way. We argue that a market of this type is better equipped to deal with long-term emission reductions| their direct regulation| irreversibility| and "lock-in" equilibria. 11036,2010,3,3,Carbon emissions from international cruise ship passengers' travel to and from New Zealand,Greenhouse gas emissions from international transport contribute to anthropogenic global warming| yet these emissions are not liable under the Kyoto Protocol. International attention is being given to quantifying such emissions. This paper presents the results of research into international cruise ship journeys to and from New Zealand. CO(2) emissions from such journeys were calculated using an activity based| or "bottom-up"| model. Emissions factors for individual journeys by cruise ships to or from New Zealand in 2007 ranged between 250 and 2200 g of CO(2) per passenger-kilometre (g CO(2) per p-km)| with a weighted mean of 390 g CO(2) per p-km. The weighted mean energy use per passenger night for the "hotel" function of these cruise vessels was estimated as 1600 MJ per visitor night| 12 times larger than the value for a land-based hotel. Using a simple price elasticities calculation| international cruise journeys for transport purposes were found to have a greater relative decrease in demand than plane journeys when the impact of carbon pricing was analysed. The potential to decrease the CO(2) emissions per p-km was examined| and if passenger accommodation was compacted and some luxury amenities dispensed with values similar to those of economy-class air travel were obtained. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10640,2010,3,3,Carbon footprint of canned mussels from a business-to-consumer approach. A starting point for mussel processors and policy makers,The increasing demand for environmental information on the global warming impact of products requires a solid methodological framework which guarantees comparability and communicability. The publicly available specification PAS 2050 combines approaches to a variety of greenhouse gas specific assessment issues to deliver a globally applicable product Carbon Footprinting (CF) method| which is expected to be widely accepted. Specifically| this paper aims to demonstrate the implementation of a CF scheme for a common canned mussel product according to PAS 2050 guidelines. A final value of 4.35 kg CO(2)e per triple pack of round cans of mussels was calculated. Furthermore| this CF study led to identify primary packaging (can production) and mussel shell management as the main activities where efforts should focus for climate change mitigation. Throughout this case study. CF opportunities and drawbacks are discussed. The whole text tries to provide a starting point for both mussel processors and policy makers to benefit from the potential advantages of a responsible use of this increasingly popular tool. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11340,2010,3,3,Carbon sequestration estimates of indigenous street trees in the City of Tshwane| South Africa,Amelioration of global warming presents opportunities for urban forests to act as carbon sinks| and thereby could possibly be included in the potential future carbon trade industry. The City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality provided a strategy in 2002 to plant 115|200 indigenous street trees in the period 2002-2008. These trees hold a monetary carbon value in their potential future growth. In order to calculate the carbon sequestration potential| the growth rates of Combretum erythrophyllum| Searsia lancea and Searsia pendulina were determined. Combined species growth regressions of C. erythrophyllum-S. lancea and S. lancea-S. pendulina are also presented. Combretum erythrophyllum has the fastest growth rate while those of S. lancea and S. pendulina are slower. The results from growth regression relationships were used in a generic allometric biomass regression to calculate the carbon sequestration rate of each species| which was extrapolated to determine the total quantity of carbon to be sequestrated by the street trees over a 30-year period (2002-2032). It is estimated that the tree planting will result in 200|492 tonnes CO(2) equivalent reduction and that 54|630 tonnes carbon will be sequestrated. The carbon dioxide reductions could be valued at more than US$ 3|000|000. But this estimate should also be viewed in the context of the limitations presented in this study. This illustrates that when future carbon trade becomes operational for urban forests these forests could become a valuable source of revenue for the urban forestry industry| especially in developing countries. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 11484,2010,3,3,Carbon sequestration in reclaimed manganese mine land at Gumgaon| India,Carbon emission is supposed to be the strongest factor for global warming. Removing atmospheric carbon and storing it in the terrestrial biosphere is one of the cost-effective options| to compensate greenhouse gas emission. Millions of acres of abandoned mine land throughout the world| if restored and converted into vegetative land| would solve two major problems of global warming and generation of degraded wasteland. In this study| a manganese spoil dump at Gumgaon| Nagpur in India was reclaimed| using an integrated biotechnological approach (IBA). The physicochemical and microbiological status of the mine land improved after reclamation. Soil organic carbon (SOC) pool increased from 0.104% to 0.69% after 20 years of reclamation in 0-15 cm spoil depth. Soil organic carbon level of reclaimed site was also compared with a native forestland and agricultural land. Forest soil showed highest SOC level of 1.11% followed by reclaimed land and agriculture land of 0.70% and 0.40%| respectively. Soil profile studies of all three sites showed that SOC pool decreased from 0-15| 15-30| and 30-45 cm depths. Although reclaimed land showed less carbon than forestland| it showed better SOC accumulation rate. Reclamation of mine lands by using IBA is an effective method for mitigating CO(2) emissions. 11217,2010,3,4,Carbon storage in relation to soil size-fractions under tropical tree-based land-use systems,The extent of carbon (C) sequestration in soils under agroforestry systems in relation to soil types (fraction sizes) and vegetation structure remains largely unexplored. This study examined soil C storage| an indicator of C sequestration potential| in homegardens (HGs)| natural forest| and single-species stands of coconut (Cocos nucifera)| rice (Oryza sativa)-paddy| and rubber (Hevea brasiliensis)| in Thrissur district| Kerala| India. Soil samples collected from four depth zones up to 1 m were fractionated to three size classes (250 - 2000 A mu m| 53 - 250 A mu m| < 53 A mu m) and their total C content determined. Total C stock (Mg ha(-1)) was highest in forests (176.6)| followed by managed tree-based systems| and lowest in rice-paddy field (55.6). The results show storage of higher amounts of C in the < 53 A mu m fraction| the most stable form of C in soil| up to one- meter depth| in land-use systems with high stand density of trees such as forests and small-sized HG. Although the results do not allow comparison of changes in soil C stock in different land-use systems| they show higher C storage in soils under tree-based land-use systems compared with the treeless (rice-paddy) system| especially in lower soil depths| suggesting the higher soil C sequestration potential of tree-based systems| and thereby their role in reducing atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. 486,2010,3,4,Carbon| forests and the REDD paradox,The institutional arrangements governing forests will be a critical factor in reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) as part of the global effort to mitigate climate change. A growing body of empirical research demonstrates how local forest governance can be as| if not more| effective than centralized state-based regimes. Local forest governance can secure improvements in multiple forest outcomes such as biomass and carbon storage and livelihoods contributions for the poor| and it can do so at lower cost than is possible through centralized governance. Many national governments have implicitly recognized these findings in their pursuit of decentralized forest governance and in strengthening local rights and capacities to use and manage forests. However| such reforms are often politically resisted| particularly where the value of forest resources is high and central government bodies are able to capture the majority of benefits. Ongoing negotiations related to the design and delivery of REDD policy and practice must take into account both the importance of local forest governance arrangements and the political-economic barriers to devolving secure rights over forests to local communities. These political dimensions of forest tenure and policy create a paradox for REDD: increasing the value of forest resources through global carbon markets without attending to local governance and rights will create political incentives towards centralized governance| which could lead to greater forest loss and lower forest-related benefits for the poor. 369,2010,3,3,Catalysis Center for Energy Innovation for Biomass Processing: Research Strategies and Goals,Production of energy and chemicals from biomass is of critical importance in meeting some of the challenges associated with decreasing availability of fossil fuels and addressing global climate change. In the current article| we outline a perspective on key challenges of biomass processing. We also introduce the Catalysis Center for Energy Innovation (CCEI)| one of the 46 Energy Frontier Research Centers established by the Department of Energy in the spring of 2009| and CCEI's overall research strategies and goals along with its cross-cutting research thrusts that can enable potential technological breakthroughs in the utilization of biomass and its derivatives. The center focuses on developing innovative heterogeneous catalysts and processing schemes that can lead to viable biorefineries for the conversion of biomass to chemicals| fuels| and electricity. In order to achieve this goal| a group of over twenty faculty members from nine institutions has been assembled to bring together complementary expertise covering novel materials synthesis| advanced characterization| multiscale modeling| surface science| catalytic kinetics| and microreactors. 10784,2010,2,4,Cedrus libani (A. Rich) distribution in Lebanon: Past| present and future,Long-term vegetation studies are needed to better predict the impact of future climate change on vegetation structure and distribution. According to the IPCC scenario| the Mediterranean region is expected to undergo significant climatic variability over the course of this century. Cedrus libani (A. Rich)| in particular| is currently distributed in limited areas in the Eastern Mediterranean region| which are expected to be affected by such climate change. In order to predict the impact of future global warming| we have used fossil pollen data and model simulations. Palaeobotanical data show that C. libani has been affected by both climate change and human activities. Populations of C libani survived in refugial zones when climatic conditions were less favourable and its range extended during periods of more suitable climate conditions. Simulations of its future geographical distribution for the year 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model show that only three areas from Mount Lebanon may allow its survival. These results extrapolated for cedar forests for the entire Eastern Mediterranean region show that forests in Syria are also threatened by future global warming. In southern Turkey| cedar forests seem to be less threatened. These results are expected to help in the long-term conservation of cedar forests in the Near East. (C) 2010 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved. 11255,2010,2,4,Cellular responses of encapsulated gastropod embryos to multiple stressors associated with climate change,As a consequence of global warming| environmental conditions such as temperature and salinity are likely to change in near-shore waters. Early life history phases are expected to be particularly vulnerable to changes in these abiotic variables. To evaluate the effect of multiple stressors on the responses of invertebrate larvae| to conditions anticipated under scenarios of climate change| we examined the cellular responses of embryos of three common rocky intertidal gastropod species to temperature and salinity changes. Encapsulated embryos of each species were exposed for 72 h to six combinations of ecologically realistic temperature and salinity levels (22 degrees and 30 degrees C and 25| 35 and 45 ppt). Embryonic mortality and the responses of two biomarkers: total antioxidant capacity and lipid peroxidation| were then determined. We predicted that those organisms exposed to physiologically stressful levels of the combined stressors would show the strongest responses. The general trend was that both extremes of salinity (25 and 45 ppt) and high temperature (30 degrees C) negatively affected the embryos studied inducing oxidative stress and increasing lipid peroxidation| leading to increased embryonic mortality. The intensity of the response remained species-specific| with no clear pattern established as to which species was the most sensitive to salinity and temperature changes. Consequently| climate change induced temperature and salinity changes do exert molecular and physiological effects on early life stages of rocky shore gastropods| however| response to these stressors is species-specific. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 478,2010,5,4,Cenozoic vegetation| climate changes and hominid evolution in tropical Africa,This paper reviews information on past vegetation of tropical Africa during the Cenozoic| focused upon the last 10 Ma| a time spanning hominid record in Central and East Africa. Summary of palaeobotanical data collected at terrestrial sites are compared with new results on the long term evolution of the continental vegetation zones documented from marine pollen record of two deep sea cores recovered from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Section 2 includes a summary of modern distribution of vegetation belts in the African continent and a synthesis of the results of both macrobotanical (fossil wood| leaves and fruits) and microbotanical (mainly pollen) studies presented according to time scale and geographical location. The main features emphasized by the palaeobotanical results are I) seasonal vegetation and climate documented as soon as the Eocene in Tanzania 2) well diversified forests existing in northern West Ethiopia during the Oligocene 3) high temporal and spatial variabilities of forests composition during the Miocene when deciduous Legume woodland was documented in Ethiopia whereas wetter evergreen forests existed in Western Kenya 4) lack of evidence for an evergreen forest belt| continuous from Western Congo to East Africa. Section 3 presents new original pollen data recovered from a long core in the Gulf of Aden documenting large scale past vegetation changes in East Africa during the last 11 Ma. These results are discussed in comparison with a summarized long pollen sequence previously published from a marine core offshore the Niger delta. This comparison illustrates variations in geographical distribution of large vegetation zone at the continental scale| through time. In Section 4| vegetation changes registered during the last 10 Ma are discussed in relation with the results of isotopic studies and an updated presentation of hominids evolution in Africa. Several changes are shown in the marine records. An expansion of savanna/grassland is shown at 10 Ma in East Africa| 3 Ma earlier than in West Africa where it is documented at 7 Ma. At large geographical scale| this first increase in grass pollen simultaneously to forest increase in the marine records is interpreting as reflecting wetter conditions over the continent. Indeed| under global humid conditions| savanna could spread over the desert areas in the Northern and Eastern directions. A forest phase is well documented in West Africa between 7.5 and 7 Ma| but has not been shown in East Africa| mainly because of low resolution analysis of the DSDP East African record which needs further investigation for that period. A strong vegetation change took place between 6.3 and 6 Ma. It was marked by a trend of important decrease tree cover of the vegetation| simultaneous in West and East Africa. At that time| very arid conditions shown by scarce tree cover occurred over the whole tropical region. This happened before (or at) the early beginning of the Messinian crisis. Generally arid conditions coincide with the accepted timing for the Chimpanzee/hominid split| and record of Sahelanthropus tchadensis in Chad and Orrorin tugenensis in Kenya| although these fossils were found under locally wooded environment. The period from 6 to 4 Ma saw the appearance of Ardipithecus and diversification of Australopithecines occurring during a progressive increased tree cover in the broad-scale vegetation that culminated at 3.9 Ma| during A. anamensis time and before the first appearance of Australopithecus afarensis. Important variations in the vegetation occurred between 4 and 3 Ma| and many plant ecosystems were available to A. afarensis| a hominid which had a wide geographical distribution and persisted at Hadar under temporal climatic and environmental variability. The strongest and abrupt decline of forest pollen accompanied by an increase in the grass pollen was found at 2.7 Ma| more pronounced in the West than in East Africa. It was accompanied by a significant increase in C(4) grass proportions| well indicated in the Turkana region and likely explained by an increase in dry season length. Such marked changes correspond to the global climate change due to the establishment of the Arctic ice sheet that induced strong aridity in the tropics. Savanna expanded at the expense of rainforest| both in West and East Africa| whereas sub-desertic steppe expanded over savanna areas in the North. Mountain forests moved down slopes| closer to lowland sites in the Rift. Simultaneous faunal changes documented by the herbivores in the fauna| the appearance of early Homo and stone tools in the archaeological record of East Africa appear contemporaneous to local vegetation changes documented at terrestrial sites. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 614,2010,3,3,Challenge of global climate change: Prospects for a new energy paradigm,Perspectives on the challenge posed by potential future climate change are presented including a discussion of prospects for carbon capture followed either by sequestration or reuse including opportunities for alternatives to the use of oil in the transportation sector. The potential for wind energy as an alternative to fossil fuel energy as a source of electricity is outlined including the related opportunities for cost effective curtailment of future growth in emissions of CO(2). 637,2010,2,3,Challenges to Adaptation in Northernmost Europe as a Result of Global Climate Change,Global warming will continue| and the Arctic is expected to warm at twice the global average rate (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007). The most pronounced changes will occur during winter with increased precipitation| more precipitation falling as rain| and a shorter snow period (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007; Roderfeld et al. 2008). These changes will have far-reaching consequences for ecosystems and for the people dependent on their services and may serve as an indicator of environmental change and an “early warning system” for other parts of the world (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment| Symon et al. 2005). We assessed the likely changes in the provision of goods and services from natural and seminatural ecosystems (i.e.| excluding urban| industrial| and agricultural land) in the Barents region—the northern parts of Norway| Sweden| and Finland| and northwestern Russia—as a consequence of anticipated climate changes during the twenty-first century. This region includes approximately six million people in an area the size of France| Portugal| Spain| and Germany together| totaling 1.75 million km2; 75% of the territory and population is Russian. Several indigenous peoples and minority groups| such as the Sami| Nenets| Vepsians| and Komi| live in the region (Barents Information Service 2008).
459,2010,2,4,Change in hydraulic traits of Mediterranean Quercus ilex subjected to long-term throughfall exclusion,Mediterranean tree species experience unpredictable climate environments and severe summer droughts and they may be impaired by the trend of decline in precipitation projected as a consequence of global climate change. The response of Quercus ilex to drought was studied by measuring hydraulic traits of trees growing in a mature forest subjected to partial throughfall exclusion for 6 years. We measured hydraulic conductivity| xylem vulnerability to embolism| and anatomical features in branches and roots. Xylem vulnerability to embolism was higher in the dry treatment than in the control treatment| P(50) of branches was on average -3.88 +/- 0.80 MPa for the control treatment compared with -3.41 +/- 0.80 MPa for the dry treatment| but the difference was not statistically significant. A similar difference between treatments was observed for roots| which exhibited lower P(50) values. This change of xylem vulnerability to embolism was not linked to modification of the hydraulic conductivity or vessel anatomy| which remained unaffected by the throughfall exclusion treatment. The xylem density of branches was lower in the dry treatment. The hydraulic conductivity was correlated with the mean vessel diameter of xylem| but the P(50) was not. The main response of trees from the dry treatment to reduced water availability appeared to be a reduction in the transpiring leaf area| which resulted in significantly increased leaf-specific conductivity. 11328,2010,2,4,Change in pan evaporation over the past 50 years in the arid region of China,Pan evaporation| as a surrogate of potential evaporation| is reported to have decreased in different regions of the world since the 1950s. There is much literature to explain the decrease in pan evaporation using the so-called evaporation complimentary relationship hypothesis and it is argued that pan evaporation can be understood as a sign of global warming and indication of an accelerating hydrologic cycle. On the other hand| some scientists insist that the pan evaporation trends may be caused by a global dimming| which effectively reduces the solar radiation to the ground surface. However| few reports are available about the changes in pan evaporation and their implications to water balance in arid regions. In the present study| we investigate the trends in pan evaporation in arid regions of China over the past 50 years and attempt to characterize the changes in water balance in these areas. It is found that pan evaporation in these areas has portrayed a statistically significant decreasing trend| which may be attributed mainly to decreases in wind speed and diurnal temperature range and increase in precipitation. The trends in some major meteorological factors such as pan evaporation| precipitation| temperature| wind speed and others imply an enhanced hydrological cycle in the study area. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 11498,2010,2,4,Changes in abundance of Nile shrimp| Caridina nilotica (Roux) following the decline of Nile perch and recovery of native haplochromine fishes| Lake Victoria| Tanzanian waters,The abundance of Nile shrimp| Caridina nilotica (Roux) in Lake Victoria has fluctuated significantly over time| from the periods of 1900-1950s| 1980s-1990s and from 2000s to present day. To elucidate its current abundance| its contribution to the Rastrineobola argentea fishery catches| and its importance to the composition of the diet of Nile perch (Lates niloticus L.)| and to the bottom trawl catches| were investigated. From August 2006 to January 2007| the mean C. nilotica CPUE was 1.68 +/- 1.20 kg boat(-1) day(-1) at Kijiweni and Igombe| and its 0.37% contribution to the R. argentea total catches was insignificant. Of the 230 Nile perch stomachs containing prey items| C. nilotica comprised 54% by volume of the diet of fish < 50 cm TL; while haplochromines contributed 41% to the diet of fish > 50 cm TL. Mean catch rates of C. nilotica in bottom trawls in 8 months between 2005 and 2008 ranged between 0 and 2.45 +/- 2.50 kg hr(-1). Low catches of the C. nilotica in the R. argentea fishery| and the dietary shift of Nile perch of > 50 cm TL to once again include haplochromines| may indicate a decrease in C. nilotica's abundance in the lake| and vice versa. Overfishing and the selectivity of the fishery to take only large Nile perch for fish filleting factories| have resulted in reduced stocks and dominance of juveniles in the perch's populations. The highly reduced Nile perch stocks are currently leading to an apparent reversal of the 1980s regime with a shift to a new cichlid-dominated and C. nilotica low abundance state. Increase in predation on juvenile C. nilotica by the recovering haplochromines| and juvenile perches| as well as environmental degradation| especially eutrophication and pollution| along with the effects of global warming impacts| account for the observed decline in C. nilotica. 11121,2010,2,4,Changes in Butterfly Abundance in Response to Global Warming and Reforestation,In the Republic of Korea| most denuded forest lands have been restored since the 1960s. In addition| the annual mean temperature in the Republic of Korea has increased approximate to 1.0 degrees C during the last century| which is higher than the global mean increase of 0.74 degrees C. Such rapid environmental changes may have resulted in changes in the local butterfly fauna. For example| the number of butterflies inhabiting forests may have increased because of reforestation| whereas the number of butterflies inhabiting grasslands may have declined. Furthermore| the number of northern butterflies may have declined| whereas the number of southern butterflies may have increased in response to global warming. Therefore| we compared current data (2002 approximate to 2007) regarding the abundance of butterfly species at two sites in the central portion of the Korean Peninsula to data from the late 1950s and early 1970s for the same sites. Changes in the abundance rank of each species between the two periods were evaluated to determine whether any patterns corresponded to the predicted temporal changes. The predicted changes in butterfly abundance were confirmed in this study. In addition| the results showed a different response to habitat change between northern and southern species. In northern butterfly species| butterflies inhabiting forests increased| whereas those inhabiting grasslands declined. However| the opposite was true when southern butterfly species were evaluated. Changes in the abundance indicate that habitat change may be one of the key factors related to the survival of populations that remain around the southern boundary of butterfly species. 11067,2010,2,3,Changes in El Nio and La Nia teleconnections over North Pacific-America in the global warming simulations,The change in the teleconnections of both El Nio and La Nia over the North Pacific and American regions due to a future greenhouse warming has been analyzed herein by means of diagnostics of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). Among the IPCC-AR4 CGCM simulations| the composites of the eight-member multimodel ensemble are analyzed. In most CGCMs| the tropical Pacific warming due to the increase of CO(2) concentration in the atmosphere promotes the main convection centers in the equatorial Pacific associated with both El Nio and La Nia to the east. The eastward shift of the convection center causes a systematic eastward shift of not only El Nio but also La Nia teleconnection patterns over the North Pacific and America| which is demonstrated in the composite maps of 500 hPa circulation| surface temperature| and the precipitation against El Nio and La Nia| as observed in a comparison between the pre-industrial and CO(2) doubling experiments. Thus| a systematic eastward migration of convection centers in the tropical Pacific associated with both El Nio and La Nia due to a future global warming commonly causes the eastward shift of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the Northern Hemisphere. 11336,2010,2,4,Changes in European temperature extremes can be predicted from changes in PDF central statistics,Although uncertainties are still large| many potentially dangerous effects have already been identified concerning the impacts of global warming on human societies. For example| the record-breaking 2003 summer heat wave in Europe has given a glimpse of possible future European climate conditions. Here we use an ensemble of regional climate simulations for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries over Europe to show that frequency| length and intensity changes in warm and cold temperature extremes can be derived to a close approximation from the knowledge of changes in three central statistics| the mean| standard deviation and skewness of the Probability Distribution Function| for which current climate models are better suited. In particular| the effect of the skewness parameter appears to be crucial| especially in the case of cold extremes| since it mostly explains the relative warming of these events compared to the whole distribution. An application of this finding is that the future impacts of extreme heat waves and cold spells on non-climatological variables (e.g.| mortality) can be estimated to a first-order approximation from observed time series of daily temperature transformed in order to account for simulated changes in these three statistics. 11504,2010,2,4,Changes in Growth and Yield of Maize Grown in the Glasshouse,Upcoming increase in global warming is potential threat to crop production| which necessitates determining responses of crops to cope with this ever-increasing adversary. This study focused on the responses of two differentially heat tolerant maize (Zea mays L.) varieties Sadaf (heat tolerant) and Agatti-2002 (heat sensitive) to glasshouse condition at three growth stages across spring and autumn seasons (by keeping the plants inside the glass canopies). Results revealed that growth and yield responses of maize varieties were quite differential across the seasons and treatments| which was evident from the interactions of varieties and treatment present in one season and disappeared in the other. Among the growth attributes| silking and grain filling stages during spring season were more sensitive to glasshouse effect as most the interactions of varieties and treatments were evident for various growth attributes. Although glasshouse condition diminished all the studies growth and yield characteristics| most explicit changes were noted in shoot dry mass and leaf area per plant at all growth stages. Among the cob and seed yield characteristics| glasshouse condition was more damaging to grain yield per cob and plant especially during spring season. To conclude| increased temperature inside the canopy during later stages of spring sown crop was the main reason for reduced growth and yield of maize. (c) 2010 Friends Science Publishers
10923,2010,2,2,Changes in Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Approaching Japan due to Anthropogenic Warming in Sea Surface and Upper-Air Temperatures,The intensities of the tropical cyclones (TCs) that approach or make landfall in Japan and the possible changes in these intensities due to global warming have been investigated on the basis of the theoretical model of Holland (1997). This theoretical model calculates the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a TC as a lower limit of central sea level pressure for a given upper-air temperature profile and underlying sea surface temperature (SST). This study uses the climatology of the JRA-25 long-term reanalysis for the present environment| along with global warming anomalies derived from CMIP3 multi model climate experiments| which are added to the reanalysis climatology to form a warmed environment. A characteristic of the tropical atmosphere is that warming anomalies are amplified toward the upper troposphere| so that TC intensification due to a rise in SST is suppressed to some extent by greater warming aloft. This study evaluates the uncertainty ranges for the M PI changes by considering inter model differences in the warming structure. The MPI-SST relationship in the present climate is consistent with the historical minimum surface pressure in the western North Pacific when the eyewall relative humidity (RH)| one of the model's key parameters| is set at 88%. The average change in the MPI due to a 1 degrees C rise in the SST is -6.7 hPa [-0.6 to 12.0 hPa]| where a negative change indicates intensification and the estimated range in brackets reflects the uncertainty in the warming structure. The error of these MPI changes is estimated to be about 15%| assuming that the likely range of the RH parameter is 88 +/- 2%. The fractional change in the surface pressure drop is 3.6%| 8.4%| and 19%| in response to a 0.5| 1.0| and 2.0 degrees C rise| respectively| in SST| which is basically comparable to existing studies based on observations and numerical simulations. While TC intensification due to global warming tends to be greater for intense TCs at low latitudes| the tendencies at relatively high latitudes near the main islands of Japan suggest that TC development occurs in a broader region over a more prolonged season in a warmed environment. 597,2010,2,4,Changes in soil water dynamics due to variation in precipitation and temperature: An ecohydrological analysis in a tallgrass prairie,There is considerable evidence that future global climate change will increase temperature and alter precipitation regime. To better understand how these factors will influence soil water dynamics| it is imperative to use multifactorial experiments. A 1 year "pulse" experiment| with 4 degrees C warming and a doubling in precipitation| was performed to evaluate the changes in soil moisture dynamics. Frequency distribution analyses of soil moisture and soil temperature were used to explore the consequences of climate change on ecohydrological processes at different soil depths. There was a decrease in soil moisture frequency from 0 to 120 cm in both warming and warming with increased precipitation experiments. Different soil depths had similar patterns of change in soil moisture and soil temperature frequency. Additionally| we correlated evapotranspiration and soil moisture to look at changes in evapotranspiration from the wilting point (E(w)) to maximum evapotranspiration (E(max)). These results revealed a shift in the slope and position of E(w) to E(max) with experimental warming. Our results showed that the soil moisture dynamics and the ecohydrology were changed by different global climate change scenarios. Understanding the effects of global warming on soil moisture dynamics will be critical for predicting changes in ecosystem level processes. 11424,2010,4,4,Changes in solar energy availability for south-eastern Europe with respect to global warming,The aim of this study is to estimate projected changes of global radiation parallel to the global warming in south-eastern Europe. As a first step| statistical dependence of global radiation from local cloud indicators is analysed for a short period (1992-1996). Global radiation is derived from METEOSAT visual images| whereas cloud coverage is described in two parallel ways: surface-based visual cloudiness from 171 stations of the region and satellite based Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR). In the second step regression coefficients of these cloud indicators against the hemispherical mean temperature are determined using an adaptation of the method of instrumental variables in recent monotonously warming periods: i.e. 1973-1996 for cloudiness| and 1979-2000 for the OLR. The local variables are used as independent variables of the first step and as dependent variables of the second one. As the last step of the whole computation the regression coefficients derived in the first and second step are combined to calculate expected change of global radiation. The product of the two regression coefficients typically yields a few percent of relative changes in global radiation considering 0.5 K hemispherical warming. The signs of the changes are overwhelmingly positive| indicating more solar energy expected to be available for agricultural and industrial purposes. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11294,2010,2,3,Changes in Streamflow Dynamics in the Rhine Basin under Three High-Resolution Regional Climate Scenarios,Because of global warming| the hydrologic behavior of the Rhine basin is expected to shift from a combined snowmelt- and rainfall-driven regime to a more rainfall-dominated regime. Previous impact assessments have indicated that this leads| on average| to increasing streamflow by similar to 30% in winter and spring and decreasing streamflow by a similar value in summer. In this study| high-resolution (0.088 degrees) regional climate scenarios conducted with the regional climate model REMO (REgional MOdel) for the Rhine basin are used to force a macroscale hydrological model. These climate scenarios are based on model output from the ECHAM5-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) global climate model| which is in turn forced by three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) emission scenarios: A2| A1B| and B1. The Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC; version 4.0.5) is used to examine changes in streamflow at various locations throughout the Rhine basin. Average streamflow| peak flows| low flows| and several water balance terms are evaluated for both the first and second half of the twenty-first century. The results reveal a distinct contrast between those periods. The first half is dominated by increased precipitation| causing increased streamflow throughout the year. During the second half of the century| a streamflow increase in winter/spring and a decrease in summer is found| similar to previous studies. This is caused by 1) temperature and evapotranspiration| which are considerably higher during the second half of the century; 2) decreased precipitation in summer; and 3) an earlier start of the snowmelt season. Magnitudes of peak flows increase during both periods| and the magnitudes of streamflow droughts increase only during the second half of the century. 11305,2010,2,4,Changes in the abundance of C3/C4 species of Inner Mongolia grassland: evidence from isotopic composition of soil and vegetation,Global warming| increasing CO(2) concentration| and environmental disturbances affect grassland communities throughout the world. Here| we report on variations in the C3/C4 pattern of Inner Mongolian grassland derived from soil and vegetation. Soil samples from 149 sites covering an area of approximately 250 000 km2 within Inner Mongolia| People's Republic of China were analyzed for the isotopic composition (delta 13C) of soil organic carbon (SOC). The contrast in delta 13C between C3 and C4 plants allowed for calculation of the C3/C4 ratio from delta 13C of SOC with a two-member mixing model| which accounted for influences of aridity and altitude on delta 13C of the C3 end-member and for changes in delta 13C of atmospheric CO(2). Maps were created geostatistically| and showed a substantially lower C4 abundance in soil than in recent vegetation (-10%). The difference between soil and vegetation varied regionally and was most pronounced within an E-W belt along 44 degrees N and in a mountainous area| suggesting a spread of C4 plants toward northern latitudes (about 1 degrees) and higher altitudes. The areas of high C4 abundance for present vegetation and SOC were well delineated by the isotherms of crossover temperature based on the climatic conditions of the respective time periods. Our study indicates that change in the patterns of C3/C4 composition in the Inner Mongolia grassland was mainly triggered by increasing temperature| which overrode the antagonistic effect of rising CO(2) concentrations. 10886,2010,2,4,Changes in the Matric Potential of Soil Water With Time and Temperature,The temperature dependence of the matric potential of soil water was investigated as part of a study of the effects of climate change on soil physical properties. Undisturbed samples of topsoils were collected in cylinders. The pore water suction near the center of each cylinder was measured using two miniature tensiometers. The temperature of the samples was varied in the range of 10 degrees C to 40 degrees C. Three different phenomena were observed. The first was a slow drift to increased pore water suctions with time. This was attributed to the rearrangement of soil particles and has been described as the age-hardening or thixotropic effect. The second was the appearance of pressure transients when the temperature was changed stepwise. These were such that a step increase in temperature produced a rapid reduction of pore water suction that decayed during a period of hours. This was attributed to pressure changes of gas bubbles entrapped within water-filled pores-these pressure changes being transmitted to the pore water. The third (or TISSI) effect was a linear increase in pore water suction with time that started at temperatures around 40 degrees C. This increased rate of change persisted for at least three further days after the temperature was again reduced to 20 degrees C. Tests with sand showed none of the above effects. Several hypotheses were tested in attempts to explain the third phenomenon. These included tests to determine if some soil components were dissolving at higher temperatures. However| neither electrical conductivity nor optical absorbance showed any effects at temperatures up to 45 degrees C and times of up to 7 days. It is conjectured that the TISSI effect is associated with the formation of organic micelles| although this needs further research to confirm it. 10456,2010,2,4,Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection,Deep convection over tropical oceans is observed generally above a threshold for sea surface temperatures(1-4)| which falls in the vicinity of 26-28 degrees C. High-resolution models suggest that the related sea surface temperature threshold for tropical cyclones rises in a warming climate(5|6). Some observations for the past few decades| however| show that tropical tropospheric warming has been nearly uniform vertically(7|8)| suggesting that the troposphere may have become less stable and casting doubts on the possibility that the sea surface temperature threshold increases substantially with global warming. Here we turn to satellite observations of rainfall for the past 30 years. We detect significant covariability between tropical mean sea surface temperatures and the convective threshold on interannual and longer timescales. In addition| we find a parallel upward trend of approximately 0.1 degrees C/decade over the past 30 years in both the convective threshold and tropical mean sea surface temperatures. We conclude that| in contrast with some observational indications| the tropical troposphere has warmed in a way that is consistent with moist-adiabatic adjustment| in agreement with global climate model simulations. 10545,2010,2,3,Changes in the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Pacific in the SRES A2 Scenario,The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index (GPI) was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP). The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models' ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation| the models (CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4) found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario| however the rate of increase differs between them. 11333,2010,2,4,Changes in wind speed over China during 1956-2004,Based on two observational data sets in China from 1956 to 2004| wind speed changes are analyzed. The annual mean wind speed (MWS)| days of strong wind (SWDs)| and maximum wind (MW) all show declining trends over broad areas of China. Only in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and the regions from the Great Bend of the Yellow River southward to Yunnan and Guangxi Provinces wind speeds are not significantly reduced| but rather| in partial| these regions' winds speeds are slightly increased. The regions with declining trends match the areas with relatively strong observed winds and the regions without significant declining trends match the areas with light observed winds. In the meantime| the regions with relatively strong winds correspond to areas of reduced days of SWDs. Trends for both increasing intensities and for the number of days of light winds both impact the installation of wind energy facilities. These may be advantageous to the development of wind energy in different regions. Urbanization| the change of anemometers| or relocation of stations are factors that are mildly responsible for the decreasing trend of MWS. The main reason for the decreasing trend is that under the background of global warming| the contrasts of the sea level pressure| and near-surface temperature between the Asian continent and the Pacific Ocean have become significantly smaller| and the east Asian trough has shifted eastward and northward| and has weakened as well. Both East Asian winter and summer monsoons are decreasing| and all of these impacts have resulted in declines of MWS in China. 10647,2010,2,4,Changes of atmospheric water vapor budget in the Pearl River basin and possible implications for hydrological cycle,In this study| we thoroughly analyzed abrupt behaviors| trends| and periodicity properties of water vapor flux and moisture budget entering and exiting the four edges of the Pearl River basin based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis dataset by using the continuous wavelet transform and the simple two-phase linear regression technique. Possible implications for hydrological cycle and water resource management of these changes are also discussed. The results indicate that: (1) the water vapor propagating through the four edges of the Pearl River basin is decreasing| and it is particularly true for the changes of the water vapor flux exiting from the north edge of the study river basin. The transition point from increase to decrease occurs in the early 1960s; (2) The wavelet transform spectra indicate that the monthly water vapor flux through the north edge decreases and this decrease is mainly reflected by intermittent distribution of the wavelet power spectra after early 1980s. The periodicity properties of the water vapor flux through the north edge imply that the northward propagation of water vapor flux decreases after the 1980s; (3) close relations between water vapor flux| precipitation and streamflow implies that the altered hydrological cycle in the Pearl River basin is mainly manifested by seasonal shifts of water vapor flux after early 1960s. One of the direct consequences of these changes of water vapor flux is the seasonal transition of wet and dry conditions across the Pearl River basin. Regional responses of hydrological cycle to climate variation/change could be different from one river basin to another. Hydrological responses of the Pearl River basin to the global warming are mainly demonstrated by seasonal shifts of precipitation changes: winter comes to be wetter and summer tends to be dryer. The finding of the seasonal transition of precipitation in the Pearl River basin is of great scientific and practical merits in basin scale water resource management in the Pearl River basin under the changing climate and global warming in particular. 10465,2010,2,4,Changes of citrus climate risk in subtropics of China,Based on the citrus temperature| precipitation| sunlight and climate risk degree| the article divides subtropics of China into three types: the low risk region| the moderate risk region and the high risk region. The citrus temperature risk increases with increasing latitude (except for the western mountainous area of subtropics of China). The citrus precipitation risk in the central part of subtropics of China is higher than that in the northern and western parts. The distributions of citrus sunlight risk are not consistent to those of the citrus precipitation risk. The citrus climate risk is mainly influenced by temperature. There is latitudinal zonal law for the distribution of the climate risk| that is| the climate risk increases with increasing latitude. At the same time the climate risk in mountainous area is high and that in eastern plain area is low. There are differences in the temporal and spatial changes of the citrus climate. In recent 46 years| the citrus climate risk presents a gradual increasing trend in subtropics of China| especially it has been increasing fast since the 1980s. Because of the global warming| the low risk region in the eastern and southern parts has a gradual decreasing trend| however| the high risk region in the northern and western parts has an increasing trend and the high risk region has been extending eastward and southward. The article analyses the distribution of the citrus climate risk degree of reduction rates of >10%| >20% and >30% in subtropics of China| and studies their changes in different time periods. Results show that the risk is increasing from southeast to northwest. 11096,2010,2,4,Changes of Diurnal Temperature Range in Taiwan and Their Large-Scale Associations: Univariate and Multivariate Trend Analyses,By analyzing the long-term (1950-2007) variability of diurnal temperature range [DTR; daytime maximum (T(max)) minus nighttime minimum (T(min))] at 21 stations in Taiwan| this study applies univariate analysis| a trend-free prewhitening procedure combined with a modified Mann-Kendall test| and EOF-based multivariate trend analysis (TEOFA) to the ranked station DTR| T(max)| and T(min). To reveal the large-scale associations with the local TEOFA results| this study also uses global gridded T(max)| T(min)| nighttime marine air temperature| and sea level pressure (SLP) datasets archived at the U.K. Meteorological Office Hadley Centre. On the basis of the signs and relative magnitudes between the annually-mean T(max)| and T(min) trends| the stations can be classified into three types through univariate analysis. With a common increasing T(min)| type-A (type-B) stations have an increasing T(min) (T(max)) faster than T(max) (T(min)) whereas type-C stations have a decreasing T(max). Both type-A and type-C (type-B) thus show(s) a decreasing (an increasing) DTR. For most stations| the increasing T(min) is the largest in December-February. In contrast| all type-B stations have an increasing T(max)| peaking in June-August. Noticeably| six of nine type-B stations| either in the remote islands or in the seaports| are particularly influenced by the ocean. Three DTR trend modes stand out of TEOFA. The first mode| TEOF(1)| captures increasing DTR trends at four type-B stations and decreasing DTR trends elsewhere. The associated increasing T(min) (T(max)) trend is consistent with the increasing (decreasing) clouds during nighttime (daytime) and is well-correlated with the large-scale patterns| suggesting that it is part of the global warming scenario. Nevertheless| TEOF(1) also captures a decreasing T(max) trend in Taiwan's highly developed western plains (i.e.| type C) and eastern China where an increasing SLP pattern is observed| implying the anthropogenic forcings on DTR. TEOF(2) (TEOF(3)) depicts the decadal-to-interdecadal DTR variability in central (northern) Taiwan. Evolution of TEOF(2) shows smaller (larger) amplitude before 1970s (after mid-1980s). The associated large-scale patterns suggest that TEOF(2) (TEOF(3)) captures the relationship between an intensified (weakened) East Asian winter monsoon and La Nina (El Nino)-like condition in eastern (central) equatorial Pacific. Embedded in a Pacific-Japan-like teleconnection pattern| the southwestward intrusion of Pacific subtropical anticyclone in June August that signifies the weakened southwesterly monsoon is also depicted by TEOF(2). 482,2010,2,4,Changing climate in Hungary and trends in the annual number of heat stress days,Global climate change can have serious direct effects on animal health and production through heat stress. In Hungary| the number of heat stress days per year (YNHD)| i.e.| days when the temperature humidity index (THI) is above a specific comfort threshold| has increased in recent years based on observed meteorological data. Between 1973 and 2008| the countrywide average increase in YNHD was 4.1% per year. Climate scenarios based on regional climate models (RCM) were used to predict possible changes in YNHD for the near future (2021-2050) relative to the reference period (1961-1990). This comparison shows that| in Hungary| the 30-year mean of YNHD is expected to increase by between 1 and 27 days| depending on the RCM used. Half of the scenarios investigated in this study predicted that| in large parts of Hungary| YNHD will increase by at least 1 week. However| the increase observed in the past| and that predicted for the near future| is spatially heterogeneous| and areas that currently have large cattle populations are expected to be affected more severely than other regions. 10896,2010,2,3,Changing ecophysiological processes and carbon budget in East Asian ecosystems under near-future changes in climate: implications for long-term monitoring from a process-based model,Using a process-based model| I assessed how ecophysiological processes would respond to near-future global changes predicted by coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models. An ecosystem model| Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT)| was applied to four sites in East Asia (different types of forest in Takayama| Tomakomai| and Fujiyoshida| Japan| and an Alpine grassland in Qinghai| China) where observational flux data are available for model calibration. The climate models predicted +1-3A degrees C warming and slight change in annual precipitation by 2050 as a result of an increase in atmospheric CO(2). Gross primary production (GPP) was estimated to increase substantially at each site because of improved efficiency in the use of water and radiation. Although increased respiration partly offset the GPP increase| the simulation showed that these ecosystems would act as net carbon sinks independent of disturbance-induced uptake for recovery. However| the carbon budget response relied strongly on nitrogen availability| such that photosynthetic down-regulation resulting from leaf nitrogen dilution largely decreased GPP. In relation to long-term monitoring| these results indicate that the impacts of global warming may be more evident in gross fluxes (e.g.| photosynthesis and respiration) than in the net CO(2) budget| because changes in these fluxes offset each other. 11147,2010,2,4,Changing glaciers in a changing climate: how vanishing geomorphosites have been driving deep changes in mountain landscapes and environments,The retreat of glaciers worldwide| from the Alpine areas to Antarctica| in the course of the last few decades| is frequently mentioned as a clear and unambiguous sign of global warming. In the Alps| although the warming experienced since the early 1980s is synchronous with warming at the global scale| nevertheless its amplitude is greater and it represents roughly a two-fold amplification of the global climate signal. As a result of this rapid climate change| many small glaciers could disappear in the next few decades. These small glaciers| common in the Alps| are also important in terms of environmental and economic systems. The rapid 'disintegration' of Alpine glaciers has already been discussed in previous studies; less attention| however| has been paid to their role as changing and potentially vanishing geomorphosites. Most Alpine glaciers| in fact| subject to rapid change driven by climate| are now responsible for unexpected environmental impacts| which in the Italian Alps have only been partially investigated. This paper analyses and discusses features and evolution in two representative glacier geomorphosites included in the official 'Geosites Inventory' of the Lombardy region (Italy). In Lombardy (Italian Alps) 348 glaciers covered an area of about 92 km(2) in 2003. They were found to have decreased in area by about 21% in the period 1990-2003. The geomorphosites analysed are the Forni Glacier| the largest valley glacier in the Italian Alps| and the Val Viola glacierised basin| where various small glaciers with well-preserved moraine ridges (dating from the Lateglacial to the present) can be found. Both the geosites are located in areas identified as 'Sites of Community Importance' (SCI) under directive 92/43/EEC; furthermore| the Forni Glacier is also located in a protected area| the Stelvio National Park. These glacier geomorphosites represent well the variations affecting all Alpine glaciers; these variations are not only driving significant changes in the morphology and ecology of the present mountain landscape| but at the same time are shaping newly formed morphologies| which may develop into smaller geomorphosites with significant value from a scientific and cultural point of view. The changes include thermokarst features such as kettles and supraglacial lakes| debris-covered glacier tongues frequently without any direct connections with the actual glacier| rounded rock outcrops emerging from the glacier surface which increase ice melting and accelerate glacier shrinkage| ice contact and moraine-dammed lakes where calving phenomena occur and icebergs drift loose| moraines affected by ice core melting with subsequent collapse and generation of mud and debris flows. 11123,2010,2,4,Changing hydroclimatic and discharge patterns in the northern Limpopo Basin| Zimbabwe,Changing regional and global trends in climate and discharge| such as global warming-related declines in annual rainfall in south-eastern Africa| are likely to have a strong influence on water resource availability| and to increase livelihood risk. It is therefore important to characterise such trends. Information can be obtained by examining and comparing the rainfall and runoff records at different locations within a basin. In this study| trends in various parameters of temperature (4 stations)| rainfall (10 stations) and discharge (16 stations) from the northern part of the Limpopo Basin| Zimbabwe| were statistically analysed| using the Spearman rank test| the Mann-Kendall test and the Pettitt test. It was determined that rainfall and discharge in the study area have undergone a notable decline since 1980| both in terms of total annual water resources (declines in annual rainfall| annual unit runoff) and in terms of the temporal availability of water (declines in number of rainy days| increases in dry spells| increases in days without flow). Annual rainfall is negatively correlated to an index of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The main areas of rising risk are an increasing number of dry spells| which is likely to decrease crop yields| and an increasing probability of annual discharge below the long-term average| which could limit blue-water availability. As rainfall continues to decline| it is likely that a multiplier effect will be felt on discharge. Increasing food shortages are a likely consequence of the impact of this declining water resource availability on rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. Declining water resource availability will also further stress urban water supplies| notably those of Zimbabwe's second-largest city of Bulawayo| which depends to a large extent from these water resources and already experiences chronic water shortages. 11323,2010,2,3,Changing links between South Asian summer monsoon circulation and tropospheric land-sea thermal contrasts under a warming scenario,Forced with increased greenhouse gases| the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) circulation weakens in climate models| which appears inconsistent with the projected increases in near-surface land-sea thermal contrasts during the 21st century. Our analysis shows that the SASM intensity positively correlates with the land-sea thermal contrast in both the lower-and upper-troposphere before year 2000; thereafter a reduced upper-tropospheric thermal contrast leads to a weakened SASM circulation| despite an increasing lower-tropospheric thermal contrast. The decrease in the upper-tropospheric thermal contrast mainly results from enhanced upper-tropospheric warming over the tropical Indian Ocean due to increased latent heating. The results suggest a crucial role of enhanced tropical convection in the weakening of SASM circulation and a weak influence of lower-tropospheric thermal contrast on the SASM under global warming. They also imply a less important role of near-surface processes over the Tibetan Plateau in the long-term SASM change during the 21st century. Citation: Sun| Y.| Y. Ding| and A. Dai (2010)| Changing links between South Asian summer monsoon circulation and tropospheric land-sea thermal contrasts under a warming scenario| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L02704| doi:10.1029/2009GL041662. 10726,2010,2,4,CHARACTERISTICS OF RAINFALL VARIATION OVER EAST CHINA FOR THE LAST 50 YEARS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH DROUGHTS AND FLOODS,With the precipitation data of 113 stations in East China during the last 50 years| the characteristics of the precipitation| including Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period (PCP) and their tendencies| are analyzed. The results show that the PCD in the northern part of the region is markedly higher than that in the southern part| but the PCP in the south is much earlier than that in the north by about one and a half months| which displays significant regional differences in precipitation. With the global warming| precipitation over East China shows an increasing tendency| but PCD displays a trend that is neither increasing nor decreasing. At the same time| the PCP is later than before| which can be mainly found in Jiangxi and southern Henan provinces. As a result| there are strong associations between the precipitation| PCD and PCP| which can be shown in the years with more precipitation| stronger PCD and later-than-usual PCP. In a word| the abnormal distribution of precipitation| PCP| and PCD over East China results in more extreme events of precipitation and more droughts and floods. 364,2010,2,4,Characterizing changes in surface ozone levels in metropolitan and rural areas in the United States for 1980-2008 and 1994-2008,In this analysis| we characterize urban and rural ozone (O(3)) trends across the US for the periods 1980-2008 (29 years) and 1994-2008 (15 years) using three exposure metrics| which summarize daily O(3) concentrations to reflect different ways O(3) may affect human health and vegetation. We observe that a statistically significant trend at a specific monitoring site| using one exposure metric| does not necessarily result in a similar trend using the other two metrics. The two most common trends among the monitoring sites are either a continuation of negative trending over the 29-year period or a shift from negative to no trend status| indicating a leveling off of the trending. Very few sites exhibit statistically significant increases in the exposure indices. In characterizing the statistically significant changes in the distribution of hourly average O(3)| we observe subtle statistically significant changes in the lower part of the distribution (i.e.| below 50 ppb) that are not necessarily captured by the trending patterns associated with the three exposure metrics. Using multisite data from 12 metropolitan cities| we find that as the frequency of higher hourly average concentrations is reduced| the lower hourly average concentrations also move upward toward the mid-level values. The change in the number of the hourly average concentrations in the lower range is consistent with decreased NO scavenging. We recommend assessing possible subtle shifts in O(3) concentrations by characterizing changes in the distribution of hourly average concentrations by month. Identifying statistically significant monthly changes in the mid- and low-level hourly average concentrations may provide important information for assessing changes in physical processes associated with global climate change| long-range transport| and the efficacy of models used for emission and risk reductions. Our results indicate that it is important to investigate the change in the trending pattern with time (e.g.| moving 15-year trending) in order to assess how year-to-year variability may influence the trend calculation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10672,2010,4,2,Characterizing post-industrial changes in the ocean carbon cycle in an Earth system model,Understanding the oceanic uptake of carbon from the atmosphere is essential for better constraining the global budget| as well as for predicting the air-borne fraction of CO(2) emissions and thus degree of climate change. Gaining this understanding is difficult| because the 'natural' carbon cycle| the part of the global carbon cycle unaltered by CO(2) emissions| also responds to climate change and ocean acidification. Using a global climate model of intermediate complexity| we assess the evolution of the natural carbon cycle over the next few centuries. We find that physical mechanisms| particularly Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and gas solubility| alter the natural carbon cycle the most and lead to a significant reduction in the overall oceanic carbon uptake. Important biological mechanisms include reduced organic carbon export production due to reduced nutrient supply| increased organic carbon production due to higher temperatures and reduced CaCO(3) production due to increased ocean acidification. A large ensemble of model experiments indicates that the most important source of uncertainty in ocean uptake projections in the near term future are the upper ocean vertical diffusivity and gas exchange coefficient. By year 2300| the model's climate sensitivity replaces these two and becomes the dominant factor as global warming continues. 11198,2010,3,3,CHARACTERIZING THE IMPORTANCE OF CARBON STORED IN WOOD PRODUCTS,Carbon emissions and stores are increasingly important as solutions are sought to address climate change. Focusing on some forest-related carbon pools but omitting product carbon frequently results in invalid conclusions. This study examined carbon emissions and stores in the life cycle of wood products in comparison with alternative materials. Emissions were established from a sustainably managed| carbon-neutral forest through processing to wood product use in residential structures and their eventual disposal. A life-cycle inventory was developed to establish the quantity of emissions from each stage of processing| and a life-cycle assessment of a representative residential building was made of its impact on global warming potential. The carbon stored in wood products as an offset to emissions was shown to be significant. Comparison of various building materials wood| steel| and concrete showed that wood was more environmentally friendly because of reduced carbon emissions because of fossil fuel combustion| carbon stored in products| permanent avoidance of emissions from fossil fuel-intensive products| and use of a sustainable and renewable resource. 11087,2010,3,4,CHF(2)OCHF(2) (HFE-134): IR Spectrum and Kinetics and Products of the Chlorine-Atom-Initiated Oxidation,Smog chamber/FTIR techniques were used to measure k(Cl + CHF(2)OCHF(2)) = (5.7 +/- 1.5) x 10(-6).cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) in 700 Torr of N(2)/O(2) diluent at 296 +/- 1 K. This result is 100 times lower than the previous literature value. The chlorine-atom-initiated atmospheric oxidation of CHF(2)OCHF(2) gives COF(2) in a molar yield of (185 +/- 22) %. The IR spectrum was recorded| and a radiative efficiency of 0.44 W m(-2) ppb(-1) was determined. The results are discussed with respect to the atmospheric chemistry and environmental impact of CHF(2)OCHF(2). 388,2010,3,3,China in the transition to a low-carbon economy,China| from its own perspective cannot afford to and| from an international perspective| is not allowed to continue on the conventional path of encouraging economic growth at the expense of the environment. Instead| China needs to transform its economy to effectively address concern about a range of environmental problems from burning fossil fuels and steeply rising oil import and international pressure on it to exhibit greater ambition in fighting global climate change. This paper first discusses China's own efforts towards energy saving and pollutants cutting| the widespread use of renewable energy and participation in clean development mechanism| and puts carbon reductions of China's unilateral actions into perspective. Given that that transition to a low carbon economy cannot take place overnight| the paper then discusses China's policies on promoting the use of clean coal technologies and nuclear power. Based on these discussions| the paper provides some recommendations on issues related to energy conservation and pollution control| wind power| nuclear power and clean coal technologies and articulates a roadmap for China regarding its climate commitments to 2050. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10413,2010,5,4,Chronomics of Climatic Variations of Tree Ring Width,Variations in the average annual tree rings of 11 sequoia trees for 2189 years are studied. The power spectrum of tree ring variations| calculated by the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM)| is power-law in character with the coefficient beta close to -1.00| suggesting the fractal character of the considered time series. The calculations of the coefficient beta in a 200-year sliding window showed that this coefficient rapidly drops to zero or very small positive values| indicating a break in the fractal structure in some intervals. We identified seven such episodes| two (the latest) of which correspond to Sporer and Maunder solar minima. The other five episodes| which occurred around 100 BC and 500| 700| 820| and 880 AD| i.e.| before regular sunspot observations| may also correspond to climate changes. By combining methods aimed at identifying the specific spectral components| such as the Schwabe cycle and behavior of the 1/f dependence as a chaos characteristic| the chronobiologic (chronomics) approach can be used to study the global climatic processes-such as cycles of about 500 years-bearing on global warming. 12683,2010,2,4,CLIMATE AND LAND-USE CHANGES AS DETERMINANTS OF LESSER KESTREL FALCO NAUMANNI ABUNDANCE IN MEDITERRANEAN CEREAL STEPPES (SICILY),Climate and land-use changes as determinants of lesser kestrel Falco naumanni abundance in Mediterranean cereal steppes (Sicily). Monitoring of lesser kestrels Falco naumanni is necessary to promote conservation of this vulnerable species. To this end| 35 colonies of this species located in the NNW and SE of Sicily were monitored from 2003 to 2009. Counts of the active colonies and resident pairs were modelled by loglinear Poisson regressions to assess population trends over the study period. Afterwards| a GLM with an analysis of covariance design and a backward removal stepwise regression was performed to relate the observed trend to local- or global-scale climatic variation and to local land-use changes. Colony counts provided a better fit to the loglinear models than pair counts. Loglinear models separated the increasing trend of the SE population breeding in buildings and living in a flat semi-arid area from the non-increasing trend of the NNW population| which breeds on cliffs at higher altitudes and lives in a warm temperate area. The effect of the covariate 'population' suggests a considerable role for the geographic range in modelling the abundance of colonies| which appears to also be relevant when it interacts with climatic and land-use changes. Land-use variables have the greatest weight in predicting the abundance of lesser kestrel colonies. The transformation of arable land negatively correlates with the abundance of colonies in both areas| and the intensification of woody crop cultivation (vines| hops and orchards) is likely to be the major cause of the observed population trend in NNW Sicily. Warm| dry climatic conditions in March and April| during the onset of reproduction| negatively affect lesser kestrels and the large-scale climate significantly interacts with land uses. Conservation efforts aimed at the management of suitable habitat conditions of the SE population and the recovery of the NNW population must incorporate the effects of global warming in addition to land-use practices to allow for more effective actions to be taken.
11380,2010,3,3,Climate Change and Biomass Energy for Sustainability,The world needs to develop a coherent and practical approach to climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has recently confirmed that the evidence for global warming is unequivocal; meanwhile| an effort is under way to develop a successor to the Kyoto Protocol and provide a roadmap towards the lower carbon world of the future. On the other hand| biomass energy refers to the use of plant and other organic materials to provide desired forms of energy and energy services| such as heat| light| and motive power. Since the discovery of fire| it has been a major source of energy worldwide. Even in today's fossil fuel era| biomass provides about 11% of the world's total primary energy supply. Biomass is the major source of energy in rural regions of the developing countries. Biomass is used to meet a variety of energy needs| including generating electricity| heating homes| fueling vehicles| and providing process heat for industrial facilities. 11391,2010,2,4,Climate change and chromosomal inversions in Drosophila subobscura,In natural populations| the large changes in chromosomal structure occurring through chromosomal inversions show pronounced variations in frequency that often correspond to temporal and spatial climatic trends| which suggests that they may be employed to monitor the impact of global warming. Here we review and update the evidence on the association between chromosomal inversions and climate in D. subobscura| which provides one of the best studied models in this context. Chromosomal inversion frequencies of D. subobscura populations vary predictably with latitude| and this association has evolved independently in Europe and South and North America. They also exhibit clear seasonal trends that are consistent with temperature fluctuations. More importantly| latitudinal clines in chromosomal inversion frequencies seem to be responding to the global rise in mean temperatures in all continents. We analyze the relevance of these results in the light of climate change| and discuss how a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying these patterns may contribute to our knowledge on the impacts of global warming in biological systems. 10993,2010,2,2,Climate change and geomorphological hazards in the eastern European Alps,Climate and environmental changes associated with anthropogenic global warming are being increasingly identified in the European Alps| as seen by changes in long-term high-alpine temperature| precipitation| glacier cover and permafrost. In turn| these changes impact on land-surface stability| and lead to increased frequency and magnitude of natural mountain hazards| including rock falls| debris flows| landslides| avalanches and floods. These hazards also impact on infrastructure| and socio-economic and cultural activities in mountain regions. This paper presents two case studies (2003 heatwave| 2005 floods) that demonstrate some of the interlinkages between physical processes and human activity in climatically sensitive alpine regions that are responding to ongoing climate change. Based on this evidence| we outline future implications of climate change on mountain environments and its impact on hazards and hazard management in paraglacial mountain systems. 578,2010,2,4,Climate Change and Its Effect on Annual Runoff in Lijiang Basin-Mt. Yulong Region| China,Based on the meteorological and hydrologic data in the Lijang (sic) basin from 1979 to 2006| variational trend and characteristics of climate change and its effect on runoff in Yanggong (sic) River were examined in the study. The results show that the temperature have significantly increased in the drainage basin during the past 28 years. The average temperature increased markedly from 1979 to 2006| and the increase of temperature in winter was higher than those in other seasons. The annual precipitation varied with a slightly upward trend in the same period| suggesting that the increase mainly occurred in spring and summer while the decrease occurred in autumn and winter. The streamflow at Yanggong River showed a significant increasing trend. During the four seasons| spring experienced the most significant increase| and autumn experienced the smallest. On the basis of the above study| we found that the increasing trend in runoff was more significant than the increase in precipitation in the study area. That was the synactic results of variation of groundwater| ice-snow meltwater and precipitation caused by global climate change. 10500,2010,2,3,Climate change and its effects on rice,Since the industrial revolution there was an increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gases| such as the carbon dioxide (CO(2))| which may lead to an increase in global temperature by the end of the 21(th) century. The direct effect of the increase in the CO(2) concentration on plants is the possibility of increasing plant growth rate and crop yield| once CO(2) is the substrate for photosynthesis. If the increase in CO(2) concentration will be accompanied by an increase in air temperature| there may not be an increase in plant growth and crop yield because of a shortening of the developmental cycle an increase in plant tissue respiration. However| the response to elevated CO(2) and temperature varies depends upon the crop. Thus| the objective of this review is to assemble information about the ecophysiological response of rice crop| one of the tree major cereals produced and consumed by the world population| to climate change. Plants with the C(3) metabolism| as rice| are more benefitted from the increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration than plants with the C(4) metabolism. High daytime and nighttime temperatures may drastically reduce the yield potential of rice crop due to shortening of the developmental cycle and spikelet sterility. Such a trend can be mitigated by selecting genotypes more resistant to conditions of high air temperature during flowering and by changing the sowing date. 11080,2010,2,4,Climate change and spring-fruiting fungi,Most macrofungi produce ephemeral fruit bodies during autumn but some have adapted to spring fruiting. In this study| temporal changes in the time of spring fruiting in Norway and the UK during 1960-2007 have been investigated by statistical analyses of about 6000 herbarium and field records| covering 34 species. Nearly 30 per cent of the temporal variation in fruiting could be ascribed to spatial and species-specific effects. Correcting for these effects| linear trends towards progressively earlier fruiting were detected during the entire period in both Norway and the UK| with a change in average fruiting day of 18 days over the study period. Early fruiting was correlated with high winter temperatures in both countries| indicating that the observed phenological changes are likely due to earlier onset of spring. There were also significant correlations between climatic conditions in one year and timing of fruiting the following year| indicating that below-ground mycelia are influenced by climatic conditions over a longer time period before fruiting. Fruiting dates were| however| not strictly related to changes in vernal accumulated thermal time. Our results indicate that global warming has lead to progressively earlier fruiting of spring fungi in northwest Europe during the last half century. 628,2010,2,4,Climate change and the probability of wind damage in two Swedish forests,We simulated how possible changes in wind and ground-frost climate and state of the forest due to changes in the future climate may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within one northern and one southern study area in Sweden| respectively. The topography of the study areas was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L). Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in the site productivity equal to a relative change in NPP| we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of the site index in response to climate change using the model The Forest Time Machine. Global climate change scenarios based on two emission scenarios and one general circulation model were downscaled to the regional level. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the sensitivity of the forest to wind and the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands for the periods 2011-2041 and 2071-2100 and for a control period 1961-1990. This was done while taking into account effects on stability of the forest from expected changes in the occurrence of ground frost. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated for both study areas when adhering to recommended management rules of today. Adding also a changed wind climate further increased the probability of wind damage. Calculated probabilities of wind damage were generally higher in the southern study area than in the northern one and were explained by differences in wind climate and the state of the forests| for example with respect to tree species composition. The indicated increase in sensitivity of the forest to wind under the current management regime| and possibly increasing windiness| motivate further analysis of the effects of different management options on the probability of wind damage and what modifications of Swedish forest management are possibly warranted. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11179,2010,2,4,Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium,We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period| just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459-477| 2006) found for China. This relationship weakens in the industrialized era| and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. As the correlation is negative and weakening| it appears that global warming would not lead to an increase in violent conflict in temperature climates. 11077,2010,2,4,Climate change impacts on water resources - studies in Japan,Climate change and global warming pose serious problems for sustainability of a sound human life. There have been many natural disasters such as floods| droughts| glacier collapses| typhoons| etc. Though many general circulation models have been developed and provided for worldwide hydrological and meteorological estimations| detailed causes and countermeasures on water-related disasters have not yet been resolved. Climate change and global warming in a river basin involve many different components such as hydrological| hydraulic and water resources viewpoints. Under these circumstances| water-related issues such as system dynamics| downscaling| river basin simulation and economic damage must be discussed to understand the impact evaluation linking it with human actions and the need for interdisciplinary collaborations. 542,2010,4,3,Climate change in a shoebox: Right result| wrong physics,Classroom experiments that purport to demonstrate the role of carbon dioxide's far-infrared absorption in global climate change are more subtle than is commonly appreciated. We show| using both experimental results and theoretical analysis| that one such experiment demonstrates an entirely different phenomenon: The greater density of carbon dioxide compared to air reduces heat transfer by suppressing convective mixing with the ambient air. Other related experiments are subject to similar concerns. Argon| which has a density close to that of carbon dioxide but no infrared absorption| provides a valuable experimental control for separating radiative from convective effects. A simple analytical model for estimating the magnitude of the radiative greenhouse effect is presented| and the effect is shown to be very small for most tabletop experiments. 11005,2010,2,3,Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects,Urbanisation is estimated to result in 6 billion urban dwellers by 2050. Cities will be exposed to climate change from greenhouse gas induced radiative forcing| and localised effects from urbanisation such as the urban heat island. An urban land-surface model has been included in the HadAM3 Global Climate Model. It shows that regions of high population growth coincide with regions of high urban heat island potential| most notably in the Middle East| the Indian sub-continent| and East Africa. Climate change has the capacity to modify the climatic potential for urban heat islands| with increases of 30% in some locations| but a global average reduction of 6%. Warming and extreme heat events due to urbanisation and increased energy consumption are simulated to be as large as the impact of doubled CO(2) in some regions| and climate change increases the disparity in extreme hot nights between rural and urban areas. Citation: McCarthy| M. P.| M. J. Best| and R. A. Betts (2010)| Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L09705| doi: 10.1029/2010GL042845. 10762,2010,2,4,Climate change in the Western Mediterranean Sea 1900-2008,The deep waters in the Western Mediterranean (>600 m) are the result of mixing between the two water masses above it (Atlantic Water| 0-200 m and Levantine Intermediate Water| 200-600 m) and heat and buoyancy losses in late winter. Deep waters in the Western Mediterranean have undergone a continuous warming during the second half of the twentieth century and initially it was hypothesized that this had been caused by the warming of the contributing water masses| very likely linked to global warming. Nevertheless| no clear signals of warming have been detected in the intermediate layers and no warming trends were detected in the upper layer before the 1980s. This fact suggested that the cause of deep water warming could be linked to river damming and the consequent salinity increase| instead of to an increase of the heat absorbed by the upper ocean| as in other parts of the world ocean. In this work we use the data base MEDATLAS and data from more recent monitoring programs to construct the longest temperature and salinity time series ever analysed in the Western Mediterranean (1900 to 2008). These time series show that both the upper and intermediate layers have warmed throughout the twentieth century. Long term and decadal variability in the upper layer correlate with surface air temperature in the northern hemisphere and heat absorbed by the upper North Atlantic Ocean| suggesting that the time series analysed in this work reflect the present heat absorption of the oceans in the context of global warming. The present data set highlights the importance of monitoring programs and provides a proxy for the study of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 708,2010,2,4,Climate change induced hybridization in flying squirrels,There is now unequivocal evidence for global climate change; however| its potential impacts on evolutionary processes remain unclear. Many species have responded to contemporary climate change through shifts in their geographic range. This could lead to increased sympatry between recently diverged species; likely increasing the potential for hybridization. Recently| following a series of warm winters| southern flying squirrels (Glaucomys volans) in Ontario| Canada rapidly expanded their northern range limit resulting in increased sympatry with the closely related northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus). This provided the opportunity to test the prediction that contemporary climate change can act as a catalyst creating conditions for the formation of hybrid zones. Following extensive sampling and molecular analyses (nuclear and mitochondrial DNA)| we identified the occurrence of hybridization between sympatric G. sabrinus and G. volans. There was evidence of backcrossing but not of extensive introgession| consistent with the hypothesis of recent rather than historic hybridization. To our knowledge| this is the first report of hybrid zone formation following a range expansion induced by contemporary climate change. This is also the first report of hybridization between North American flying squirrel species. 11315,2010,2,4,Climate change might drive the invasive tree Robinia pseudacacia into nature reserves and endangered habitats,Static networks of nature reserves disregard the dynamics of species ranges in changing environments. In fact| climate warming has been shown to potentially drive endangered species out of reserves. Less attention has been paid to the related problem that a warmer climate may also foster the invasion of alien species into reserve networks. Here| we use niche-based predictive modelling to assess to which extent the Austrian Natura 2000 network and a number of habitat types of conservation value outside this network might be prone to climate warming driven changes in invasion risk by Robinia pseudacacia L.| one of the most problematic alien plants in Europe. Results suggest that the area potentially invaded by R. pseudacacia will increase considerably under a warmer climate. Interestingly| invasion risk will grow at a higher than average rate for most of the studied habitat types but less than the national average in Natura 2000 sites. This result points to a potential bias in legal protection towards high mountain areas which largely will remain too cold for R. pseudacacia. In contrast| the selected habitat types are more frequent in montane or lower lying regions| where R. pseudacacia invasion risk will increase most pronouncedly. We conclude that management plans of nature reserves should incorporate global warming driven changes in invasion risk in a more explicit manner. In case of R. pseudacacia| reducing propagule pressure by avoiding purposeful plantation in the neighbourhood of reserves and endangered habitats is a simple but crucial measure to prevent further invasion under a warmer climate. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 609,2010,2,4,Climate Change Promotes the Emergence of Serious Disease Outbreaks of Filarioid Nematodes,Filarioid parasites represent major health hazards with important medical| veterinary| and economic implications| and considerable potential to affect the everyday lives of tens of millions of people globally (World Health Organization| 2007). Scenarios for climate change vary latitudinally and regionally and involve direct and indirect linkages for increasing temperature and the dissemination| amplification| and invasiveness of vector-borne parasites. High latitude regions are especially influenced by global climate change and thus may be prone to altered associations and dynamics for complex host-pathogen assemblages and emergence of disease with cascading effects on ecosystem structure. Although the potential for substantial ecological perturbation has been identified| few empirical observations have emanated from systems across the Holarctic. Coincidental with decades of warming| and anomalies of high temperature and humidity in the sub-Arctic region of Fennoscandia| the mosquito-borne filarioid nematode Setaria tundra is now associated with emerging epidemic disease resulting in substantial morbidity and mortality for reindeer and moose. We describe a host-parasite system that involves reindeer| arthropods| and nematodes| which may contribute as a factor to ongoing declines documented for this ungulate species across northern ecosystems. We demonstrate that mean summer temperatures exceeding 14A degrees C drive the emergence of disease due to S. tundra. An association between climate and emergence of filarioid parasites is a challenge to ecosystem services with direct effects on public health| sustainability of free-ranging and domestic ungulates| and ultimately food security for subsistence cultures at high latitudes. 11075,2010,2,4,Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species,Background: Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern| but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling| if carefully implemented| can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts| even for rare and cryptic species. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity| climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species| the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus)| which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate| topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However| the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably| if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant| G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Conclusions/Significance: Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change. 11546,2010,2,4,CLIMATE CHANGE| AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE AND GOVERNMENTAL SUPPORT,Global warming has contributed to a greater frequency of extreme weather events represented by heat waves| severe drought or floods. Agriculture is exposed to such events more than many other economic sectors. Agriculture is not only one of the most exposed sector to climate change triggered risks| but it also faces sever difficulties in addressing those risks. The paper aims to provide an argument for more intense governmental involvement in agricultural risk management| based upon several factual and theoretical reasons. There were identified some theoretical reasons (market failure| co-responsibility| economics) that support a better governmental intervention through an insurance scheme with governmental support. Romania's agricultural insurance market is in its infancy| but there are signals that competition could lower premiums below the technical level. Governmental measures| such as subsidized credits and damage scheme for natural hazards produced losses impacted significantly the agricultural insurance market. However| delayed payments lowered farmers' trust in insurance as a risk management option. 626,2010,2,4,Climate change| teleconnection patterns| and regional processes forcing marine populations in the Pacific,Climate change impacts in large marine ecosystems (LMEs) are driven by global climate variability| often communicated over large distances by atmospheric teleconnections| and modified by the dominant local and regional ocean processes. The focus of this paper is to summarize the key processes and features that characterize the major coastal LMEs of the Pacific| as part of a greater effort to understand the role of past and future global climate change in driving (possibly synchronous) fluctuations in marine populations. The physical setting of five LMEs - the Humboldt Current System (HCS)| California Current System (CCS)| Gulf of Alaska (GOA)| Kuroshio Current System (KCS)| and Oyashio Current System (OCS) - and the mechanisms and impacts of climate variability on these systems are described. Because of their pivotal role in linking and perhaps synchronizing climate variability in disparate LMEs| we also review teleconnections and analyze past global atmospheric teleconnections and regional ocean response patterns. The major Pacific eastern boundary current systems| the CCS and HCS| feature similar dominant processes (e.g.| coastal upwelling)| and share atmospheric forcing from common teleconnection patterns that vary together. Sea level pressure variations forcing the KCS and OCS systems on climate scales| however| are not strongly teleconnected to the CCS and HCS. A common factor analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) within these ecosystems provides an example of how LMEs have responded to past climate variability. All LMEs display a persistent warming tendency since 1900| with multi-decadal fluctuations superimposed. However| SST fluctuations in the western Pacific lag those in the east by about a decade. Global synchrony in climate forcing is modulated by distinct processes within each LME| which reduce the correlation between long-term fluctuations. Published by Elsevier B.V. 469,2010,4,4,Climate change: a profile of US climate scientists' perspectives,Climate scientists have played a significant role in investigating global climate change. In the USA| a debate has swirled about whether a consensus on climate change exists among reputable scientists and this has entered the policy process. In order to better understand the views of US climate scientists| we conducted an empirical survey of US climate scientists (N = 468) in 2005| and compared the results with the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science report and policy summaries. Our results reveal that survey respondents generally agree about the nature| causes| and consequences of climate change| and are in agreement with IPCC findings. We also found that there is strong support for a variety of policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 11092,2010,2,4,Climate control of the global tropical storm days (1965-2008),The tropical storm days have a consistent global record over the past 44 years (1965-2008)| which provides an alternative metric for integrated information about genesis| track| and lifespan. Seasonal-reliant singular value decomposition is performed on the fields of the global storm days and sea surface temperature by using the "best track" data. The leading mode| which dominates the variability of the global total number of storm days| displays an east-west contrast between enhanced activity in the North Pacific and reduced activity in the North Atlantic and a north-south contrast in the Southern Hemisphere oceans between active tropics and inactive subtropics| which are coupled with the El Nino and a positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The second mode reveals a compensating trend pattern coupled with global warming: upward trends over the North Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific warm pool (17.5 degrees S-10 degrees N| 70-140 degrees E) and downward trends over the Pacific| especially the South Pacific. However| the global total number of storm days shows no trend and only an unexpected large amplitude fluctuation driven by El Nino-Southern Oscillation and PDO. The rising temperature of about 0.5 degrees C in the tropics so far has not yet affected the global tropical storm days. Citation: Wang| B.| Y. Yang| Q.-H. Ding| H. Murakami| and F. Huang (2010)| Climate control of the global tropical storm days (1965-2008)| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L07704| doi:10.1029/2010GL042487. 10995,2010,2,4,Climate effects on volcanism: influence on magmatic systems of loading and unloading from ice mass variations| with examples from Iceland,Pressure influences both magma production and the failure of magma chambers. Changes in pressure interact with the local tectonic settings and can affect magmatic activity. Present-day reduction in ice load on subglacial volcanoes due to global warming is modifying pressure conditions in magmatic systems. The large pulse in volcanic production at the end of the last glaciation in Iceland suggests a link between unloading and volcanism| and models of that process can help to evaluate future scenarios. A viscoelastic model of glacio-isostatic adjustment that considers melt generation demonstrates how surface unloading may lead to a pulse in magmatic activity. Iceland's ice caps have been thinning since 1890 and glacial rebound at rates exceeding 20 mm yr(-1) is ongoing. Modelling predicts a significant amount of 'additional' magma generation under Iceland due to ice retreat. The unloading also influences stress conditions in shallow magma chambers| modifying their failure conditions in a manner that depends critically on ice retreat| the shape and depth of magma chambers as well as the compressibility of the magma. An annual cycle of land elevation in Iceland| due to seasonal variation of ice mass| indicates an annual modulation of failure conditions in subglacial magma chambers. 719,2010,2,3,Climate impact on airborne particulate matter concentrations in California using seven year analysis periods,The effect of global climate change on the annual average concentration of fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) in California was studied using a climate-air quality modeling system composed of global through regional models. Output from the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM) generated under the "business as usual" global emissions scenario was downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model followed by air quality simulations using the UCD/CIT airshed model. The system represents major atmospheric processes acting on gas and particle phase species including meteorological effects on emissions| advection| dispersion| chemical reaction rates| gas-particle conversion| and dry/wet deposition. The air quality simulations were carried out for the entire state of California with a resolution of 8-km for the years 2000-2006 (present climate with present emissions) and 2047-2053 (future climate with present emissions). Each of these 7-year analysis periods was analyzed using a total of 1008 simulated days to span a climatologically relevant time period with a practical computational burden. The 7-year windows were chosen to properly account for annual variability with the added benefit that the air quality predictions under the present climate could be compared to actual measurements. The climate-air quality modeling system successfully predicted the spatial pattern of present climate PM(2.5) concentrations in California but the absolute magnitude of the annual average PM(2.5) concentrations were under-predicted by similar to 4-39% in the major air basins. The majority of this under-prediction was caused by excess ventilation predicted by PCM-WRF that should be present to the same degree in the current and future time periods so that the net bias introduced into the comparison is minimized. Surface temperature| relative humidity (RH)| rain rate| and wind speed were predicted to increase in the future climate while the ultra violet (UV) radiation was predicted to decrease in major urban areas in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). These changes lead to a predicted decrease in PM(2.5) mass concentrations of similar to 0.3-0.7 mu g m(-3) in the southern portion of the SJV and similar to 0.3-1.1 mu g m(-3) along coastal regions of California including the heavily populated San Francisco Bay Area and the SoCAB surrounding Los Angeles. Annual average PM(2.5) concentrations were predicted to increase at certain locations within the SJV and the Sacramento Valley (SV) due to the effects of climate change| but a corresponding analysis of the annual variability showed that these predictions are not statistically significant (i.e. the choice of a different 7-year period could produce a different outcome for these regions). Overall| virtually no region in California outside of coastal + central Los Angeles| and a small region around the port of Oakland in the San Francisco Bay Area experienced a statistically significant change in annual average PM(2.5) concentrations due to the effects of climate change in the present study. The present study employs the highest spatial resolution (8 km) and the longest analysis windows (7 years) of any climate-air quality analysis conducted for California to date| but the results still have some degree of uncertainty. Most significantly| GCM calculations have inherent uncertainty that is not fully represented in the current study since a single GCM was used as the starting point for all calculations. The PCM results used in the current study predicted greater wintertime increases in air temperature over the Pacific Ocean than over land| further motivating comparison to other GCM results. Ensembles of GCM results are usually employed to build confidence in climate calculations. The current results provide a first data-point for the climate-air quality analysis that simultaneously employ the fine spatial resolution and long time scales needed to capture the behavior of climate-PM(2.5) interactions in California. Future downscaling studies should follow up with a full ensemble of GCMs as their starting point| and include aerosol feedback effects on local meteorology. 375,2010,3,2,Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes,Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food| fuel| and fiber will depend on many interactive factors| including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management| and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 Wm(-2) ( approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions| including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent| and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option| only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place| and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation| even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies. 11032,2010,3,2,Climate Policy to Defeat the Green Paradox,Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However| it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO(2) emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years| a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode| and occasionally reinforce| their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time| without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC| for example| only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact| various policy measures involve a definite risk of 'backfiring' and actually increasing CO(2) emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions| it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios| targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases| this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources| but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission targets. This leads us to a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects| the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for| there are probably only three main routes in climate policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground| (b) technological leaps in zero-emission energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests. 452,2010,5,4,CLIMATE PREDICTORS OF LATE QUATERNARY EXTINCTIONS,Between 50|000 and 3|000 years before present (BP) 65% of mammal genera weighing over 44 kg went extinct| together with a lower proportion of small mammals. Why species went extinct in such large numbers is hotly debated. One of the arguments proposes that climate changes underlie Late Quaternary extinctions| but global quantitative evidence for this hypothesis is still lacking. We test the potential role of global climate change on the extinction of mammals during the Late Quaternary. Our results suggest that continents with the highest climate footprint values| in other words| with climate changes of greater magnitudes during the Late Quaternary| witnessed more extinctions than continents with lower climate footprint values| with the exception of South America. Our results are consistent across species with different body masses| reinforcing the view that past climate changes contributed to global extinctions. Our model outputs| the climate change footprint dataset| provide a new research venue to test hypotheses about biodiversity dynamics during the Late Quaternary from the genetic to the species richness level. 10980,2010,5,4,Climate response over Asia/Arctic to change in orbital parameters for the last interglacial maximum,The climate response over Asia/Arctic to the change in orbital parameters for the last interglacial maximum (LIGM) is investigated using the NCAR CCM3. After implementing LIGM orbital parameters| the insolation decreases in January and increases in July in the northern hemisphere in comparison to present values. The reduced net short-wave radiative heat fluxes in January lead to the surface cooling in low to mid latitudes of Asia| whereas a warming is obtained in northern Asia where the net short-wave radiative heat fluxes change little. The January warming in northern Asia/Arctic in the LIGM| consistent with proxy records| is mainly due to the marked increase in downward long wave heat fluxes associated with the increase in cloud and in part by the increase in the Arctic Oscillation polarity. In July| the increased insolation leads to the surface warming over most Asia| even though a slight cooling is obtained in low latitudes in spite of the increase in insolation| due to the decrease in the short-wave heat fluxes at the surface by the increase in the cloud amount. Precipitation overall increases at South and East Asia in July| due to the stronger southwest and southerly winds. The change in insolation due to the orbital parameters determines the climate change pattern in low- to mid-latitudes over Asia in the LIGM| even though the degree of climate change is much lower than suggested by proxy estimates. The results obtained in this study implies that| under the different climate background such as future global warming| the change in greenhouse effect associated with cloud feedback could play an important role in determining the climate change over Asia/Arctic. 509,2010,5,4,Climate variability recorded by n-alkanes of paleolake sediment in Qaidam Basin on the northeast Tibetan Plateau in late MIS3,Here we combine n-alkanes preserved in a shell bar section from Qarhan paleolake| Qaidam Basin with the other sedimentary proxies to elucidate the lake evolution process during the period 39.7 to 17.5 (14)C ka BP (calibrated age ranges from 43.5 to 22.4 cal. ka BP). In different stages| the n-alkane homologues exhibited different distribution modes indicative of variations in the surrounding vegetation and the hydrologic condition of the lake. The n-alkanes proxies (CPI (h) | ACL (h) | P (aq) ) have the same trends as the summer solar insolation variation| implying that the summer insolation is the most important climatic factor driving the environmental changes and also indirectly controls lake evolution on the Tibetan Plateau. CPI (h) and ACL (h) as well as the total pollen concentration appear to show a trend comparable with methane concentration record from the GRIP ice core that reflected the Dansgaard-Oeschger events. This demonstrates that the paleoclimate variations in Qarhan area generally agree with global climate change and show rapid oscillations in late MIS3. These findings provide the latest molecular fossil evidence from paleolake sediments to confirm that lake evolution on Tibetan Plateau in late MIS3 was closely associated with enhanced summer insolation. 11539,2010,5,2,Climate-model evaluation of the contribution of sea-surface temperature and carbon dioxide to the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum as a possible analogue of future climate change,The Middle Miocene Climate Optimum (MMCO)| which occurred at about 15Ma| is the most recent global warming episode. Given the fact that no dramatic tectonic movement had taken place| this historical warming episode mirrors the present warming event induced mostly by human activities. Proxy data indicate that the MMCO had a global mean surface temperature of 3-4 degrees C higher than the present| equivalent to the warming predicted for the next century by the mid-range scenarios of the IPCC Fourth Report (AR4). With this comparable magnitude of warming| it is therefore of scientific interest to examine whether or not the present warming is similar to the MMCO warming. Since the MMCO boundary conditions such as paleogeography and paleobathymetry were not greatly different from today| contentious scientific issues on possible forcing mechanisms can be assessed. The MMCO climate was simulated using the latest National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model CAM3.1 and Land Model CLM3.0 coupled to a slab ocean model. Two simulations were conducted| the MG700 with a near-present equator-pole meridional sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient and a CO2 level of 700ppmv and the HG350 with a higher equator-pole meridional SST gradient and a CO2 level of 350ppmv. These two simulations give the closest proxy global mean surface temperature of 18.4 degrees C with a difference of +/- 0.6 degrees C. This study analyses these two simulations and provides an insight into possible mechanisms of the MMCO. Results show that the north and south poles respond differently to a 50% reduction in CO2 from the upper bound value of 700ppmv (an approximate doubling of the present CO2) and a change in equator-pole meridional SST gradient. The Arctic response to a 50% reduction in CO2 is balanced by a 50% decrease in surface temperature but shows no response to the increase in equator-pole meridional SST gradient. The Antarctic situation is opposite to the Arctic: the western Antarctic's response to the increase in the equator-pole meridional SST gradient is nearly balanced by a doubling of the maximum surface temperature| but shows no response to a 50% reduction in CO2; the eastern Antarctic shows a weak response to either a 50% reduction in CO2 or to an increase in the equator-pole meridional SST gradient. This may explain why the Arctic warms much more than the Antarctic in the MMCO and the decoupling of CO2 with temperature as determined by the proxy SST. 11487,2010,2,4,Climate-related| decadal-scale assemblage changes of seagrass-associated fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico,Global temperatures are rising| and are expected to produce a poleward shift in the distribution of many organisms. We quantified changes in fish assemblages within seagrass meadows of the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) between the 1970s and 2006-2007| and observed changes consistent with this forecast. During 2006-2007 we sampled seagrass meadows using the same gears and methods previously employed by R. J. Livingston in coastal waters of northwest Florida throughout the 1970s. Comparisons between datasets revealed numerous additions to the fish fauna during 2006-2007 that were completely absent in the 1970s| including: Lutjanus synagris (lane snapper)| Epinephelus morio (red grouper)| Chaetodon ocellatus (spotfin butterflyfish)| Mycteroperca sp (grouper| non gag)| Centropristis philadelphica (rock sea bass)| Fistularia tabacaria (bluespotted cornetfish)| Ocyurus chrysurus (yellowtail snapper)| Thalassoma bifasciatum (bluehead wrasse)| Abudefduf saxatilis (sergeant major)| Acanthuridae spp. (surgeonfishes) and Sparisoma viride (stoplight parrotfish). Several other species showed large increases in abundance during the interval between 1979 and 2006| including Mycteroperca microlepis (gag grouper| up similar to 200 x)| Lutjanus griseus (gray snapper| up similar to 105 x)| and Nicholsina usta (emerald parrotfish| up similar to 22 x). All of these are tropical or subtropical species that now make up a greater percentage of seagrass-associated fish assemblages in the northern GOM than in the past. Additionally| we observed regional increases in air and sea surface temperatures (>3 degrees C) during the similar to 30 years that separate Livingston's samples and ours that correlate with northern shifts in the distribution of warm-water fishes. Documenting these range shifts is a critical first step in investigating the consequences of global warming for endemic marine communities and fishery production in the northern GOM. 10667,2010,2,4,Climatic and oceanic influences on the abundance of gelatinous zooplankton in the North Sea,Oceanographically based mechanisms are shown to explain the spatial variation in the climatic relationship between the abundance of medusae (Aurelia aurita and Cyanea spp. of the class Scyphozoa)| in the North Sea between 1971 and 1986 during June-August| and the winter (December-March) North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). A scyphomedusa population to the west of Denmark shows a strong inverse relationship between medusa abundance and fluctuations in the NAOI; the NAOI correlates strongly (P < 0.001) with both annual sea surface temperature (SST) at 6.5 degrees E 56.5 degrees N (1950-2008) and with winter precipitation on the Danish coast at Nordby (1900-2008) suggesting a direct link between the influence of climate and medusae abundance. In contrast| scyphomedusa abundance and distribution in the northern North Sea appears to be influenced by oceanic and mixed water inflow| which may overwhelm or mask any direct climatic influence on jellyfish abundance. Similarly| advection can also explain much of the interannual variability (1959-2000) in the abundance of other gelatinous zooplankton taxa (Cnidaria| Ctenophora and Siphonophora) in the northern North Sea as identified by the capture of gelatinous tissue and nematocysts (stinging cells) in Continuous Plankton Recorder samples. Jellyfish (Scyphozoa) in the southern North Sea may benefit from low temperature anomalies and the long-term effects of global warming might suppress Aurelia aurita and Cyanea spp. populations there. However| the biological response to temperature is complex and future research is required in this area. 11313,2010,3,2,Climatic impact of land use in LCA-carbon transfers between vegetation/soil and air,Human use of land areas leads to impacts on nature in several ways. Within the framework of the UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative| it was stated that life cycle assessment (LCA) of land use should assess at least the impact on biodiversity| the impact on biotic production| and the impact on the regulating functions of the natural environment. This study focuses on the climatic impact of land use as determined by the CO(2) transfers between vegetation/soil and the atmosphere in the course of terrestrial release and re-storage of carbon. Compared with the potential natural vegetation as a baseline| areas getting transformed by man (land transformations) as well as areas forced to maintain their current non-natural state (land occupations) may store reduced amounts of carbon in soil and vegetation| whereby the mobilized carbon is essentially transferred to the atmosphere in form of CO(2)| contributing to global warming. The size of this climatic impact is determined by the amount of carbon transferred per hectare| as well as by the duration of the carbon's stay in air. Generally| we consider this duration as limited by spontaneous reversal of vegetation and soil toward a quasi-natural form as soon as human land use ends. Taking the mean stay in air of 1 ton carbon from fossil fuel combustion as a basis of comparison| 1 ton carbon released by| e.g.| a forest-to-cropland transformation can be adequately weighted by considering the timing of carbon backflow from air to the spontaneously regrowing forest. Carbon transfers to the air per hectare| as well as imputable durations of carbon stay in air| are determined for the most important types of land transformation and land occupation| for locations in any of the terrestrial biomes of tropical forest| temperate forest| boreal forest| tropical grassland| and temperate grassland. The carbon quantities are expressed as "fossil-combustion-equivalent" tons of carbon so that they can be summed up with carbon amounts from fossil fuel combustion into the usual LCA indicator for global warming potential. The results confirm that on a per hectare basis| transforming forests into cropland has a more serious climatic effect than continuing to occupy such land as cropland for one additional year. But on a global basis| maintaining current cropland areas for one additional year is a serious driver of global warming due to the huge area of croplands in zones where forest would be the natural vegetation. Furthermore| forest-to-cropland transformations cause carbon transfers to air per hectare of roughly similar size in tropical| temperate| or boreal zones| but due to slow forest restoration| transformation of boreal forests has a stronger influence on global warming. The results of this study facilitate a worldwide impact assessment of land use with respect to global warming. Together with the two separate studies covering the impacts of land use on biodiversity and on biotic production| a tool will be available for a reasonably complete LCA of land use at global level. However| the data quality needs further improvement. 591,2010,5,4,Climatic signals from the (10)Be records of the Korean marine sediments,Several recent studies confirmed that (10)Be records obtained from lake and marine sediments show significant climatic signals [1-4]. We have recently investigated (10)Be and (9)Be in sedimentary core materials obtained from the East Sea [5]. The results indicate that a combination of the (10)Be and (9)Be data provides significant information to enhance our understanding of marine environmental changes for the East Sea during the last two glacial-interglacial periods. The range of the (10)Be concentrations of the sediments is consistent with previously published (10)Be concentrations from the other regions [2-4]. The (10)Be records from the East Sea tend to show significant global climate change during the warm periods of Holocene and Eemian. The results of our study deliver a new and deeper insight into marine environmental changes and paleoclimate records in the deep sea areas surrounding Korea. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 472,2010,2,4,Climatic Variability Leads to Later Seasonal Flowering of Floridian Plants,Understanding species responses to global change will help predict shifts in species distributions as well as aid in conservation. Changes in the timing of seasonal activities of organisms over time may be the most responsive and easily observable indicator of environmental changes associated with global climate change. It is unknown how global climate change will affect species distributions and developmental events in subtropical ecosystems or if climate change will differentially favor nonnative species. Contrary to previously observed trends for earlier flowering onset of plant species with increasing spring temperatures from mid and higher latitudes| we document a trend for delayed seasonal flowering among plants in Florida. Additionally| there were few differences in reproductive responses by native and nonnative species to climatic changes. We argue that plants in Florida have different reproductive cues than those from more northern climates. With global change| minimum temperatures have become more variable within the temperate-subtropical zone that occurs across the peninsula and this variation is strongly associated with delayed flowering among Florida plants. Our data suggest that climate change varies by region and season and is not a simple case of species responding to consistently increasing temperatures across the region. Research on climate change impacts need to be extended outside of the heavily studied higher latitudes to include subtropical and tropical systems in order to properly understand the complexity of regional and seasonal differences of climate change on species responses. 11081,2010,2,4,Climatic warming increases voltinism in European butterflies and moths,Climate change is altering geographical ranges| population dynamics and phenologies of many organisms. For ectotherms| increased ambient temperatures frequently have direct consequences for metabolic rates| activity patterns and developmental rates. Consequently| in many insect species both an earlier beginning and prolongation of seasonal duration occurred in parallel with recent global warming. However| from an ecological and evolutionary perspective| the number of generations (voltinism) and investment into each generation may be even more important than seasonality| since an additional generation per unit time may accelerate population growth or adaptation. Using a dataset extending back to the mid-nineteenth century| I report changes in the voltinism of butterfly and moth species of Central Europe. A significant proportion of 263 multi-voltine species showed augmented frequency of second and subsequent generations relative to the first generation in a warm period since 1980| and 44 species even increased the number of generations after 1980. Expected ecological consequences are diverse. Since multi-voltinism has been linked to insect outbreaks they include an increase in the abundance of herbivorous pests of agriculture and forestry. However| disruption of the developmental synchrony associated with multi-voltinism and host plant phenology may also reduce fitness| potentially having unexpected consequences for species of conservation concern. The ability of species to adapt evolutionarily to a changing environment may be facilitated by increased voltinism. 11521,2010,4,3,Cluster analysis of midlatitude oceanic cloud regimes: mean properties and temperature sensitivity,Clouds play an important role in the climate system by reducing the amount of shortwave radiation reaching the surface and the amount of longwave radiation escaping to space. Accurate simulation of clouds in computer models remains elusive| however| pointing to a lack of understanding of the connection between large-scale dynamics and cloud properties. This study uses a k-means clustering algorithm to group 21 years of satellite cloud data over midlatitude oceans into seven clusters| and demonstrates that the cloud clusters are associated with distinct large-scale dynamical conditions. Three clusters correspond to low-level cloud regimes with different cloud fraction and cumuliform or stratiform characteristics| but all occur under large-scale descent and a relatively dry free troposphere. Three clusters correspond to vertically extensive cloud regimes with tops in the middle or upper troposphere| and they differ according to the strength of large-scale ascent and enhancement of tropospheric temperature and humidity. The final cluster is associated with a lower troposphere that is dry and an upper troposphere that is moist and experiencing weak ascent and horizontal moist advection. Since the present balance of reflection of shortwave and absorption of longwave radiation by clouds could change as the atmosphere warms from increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases| we must also better understand how increasing temperature modifies cloud and radiative properties. We therefore undertake an observational analysis of how midlatitude oceanic clouds change with temperature when dynamical processes are held constant (i.e.| partial derivative with respect to temperature). For each of the seven cloud regimes| we examine the difference in cloud and radiative properties between warm and cold subsets. To avoid misinterpreting a cloud response to large-scale dynamical forcing as a cloud response to temperature| we require horizontal and vertical temperature advection in the warm and cold subsets to have near-median values in three layers of the troposphere. Across all of the seven clusters| we find that cloud fraction is smaller and cloud optical thickness is mostly larger for the warm subset. Cloud-top pressure is higher for the three low-level cloud regimes and lower for the cirrus regime. The net upwelling radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere is larger for the warm subset in every cluster except cirrus| and larger when averaged over all clusters. This implies that the direct response of midlatitude oceanic clouds to increasing temperature acts as a negative feedback on the climate system. Note that the cloud response to atmospheric dynamical changes produced by global warming| which we do not consider in this study| may differ| and the total cloud feedback may be positive. 10706,2010,3,3,CO oxidation from syngas (CO and H(2)) using nanoporous Pt/Al(2)O(3) catalyst,The concept of "waste-to-wealth" is spreading awareness to prevent global warming and recycle the restrictive resources. To contribute towards sustainable development| hydrogen energy is obtained from syngas (CO and H(2)) generated from waste gasification| followed by CO oxidation and CO(2) removal. in H(2) generation| it is key to produce more purified H(2) from syngas using heterogeneous catalysts. In this respect| we prepared Pt/Al(2)O(3) catalyst with nanoporous structure using precipitation method| and compared its catalytic activity with commercial alumina (Degussa). Based on the results of XRD and TEM| it was found that metal particles did not aggregate on the alumina surface and showed high dispersion. Optimum condition for CO conversion was 1.5 wt% Pt loaded on Al(2)O(3) support| and pure hydrogen was obtained after removal of CO(2) gas. 11527,2010,3,2,CO(2) capture: why| how| with what constraints?,CO(2) capture: why| how| with what constraints? Since 1900's| the fast-expanding industrialization has led to significant increase of CO(2) emissions into atmosphere| which has contributed to global warming. In spite of alternative options development to reduce greenhouse effect (energy savings| green transport| and renewable energies)| CO(2) capture and storage is an interesting| perhaps inevitable climate change mitigation measure. In fact| one of the most significant sources of CO(2) emissions worldwide is industrial fumes (flue gas stream| coal-fired power plants| refineries| cement| manufacturing plants). The process consists in recovering CO(2) from flue gas streams| carrying by ships or pipelines and finally storing in depleted gas or oil fields or in deep saltwater aquifers. Among different considered solutions| post-combustion capture is now the most advanced technology because it can be applied to retrofit plants. Current applications are based on a reversible chemical reaction between CO(2) and aqueous amine solution| which permits selective absorption. One of the main limits for this process is amine degradation| which leads to many by-products. These compounds generate many problems such as corrosion| fouling| solvent losses. As a consequence| the efficiency of capture units decreases and additional operating cost is a drawback. Thus| many investigations are still in course to improve this very promising concept. 10682,2010,3,3,CO(2) mitigation potential in farmland of China by altering current organic matter amendment pattern,The estimation of the global warming mitigation potential in terrestrial ecosystems is of great importance for decision makers to adopt measures to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) as well as to reduce greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. In this paper| we compiled data published in peer-reviewed journals| and conducted a holistic analysis of the effects of organic matter amendment on soil organic carbon sequestration| methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions in paddy and upland systems. Results showed that organic matter amendment increased soil organic carbon content| and apparent conversion rate of organic matter carbon to soil organic carbon in paddies was constant| while that in uplands decreased along with amendment years at 25 years time scale. Organic matter amendment during the rice season led to large CH(4)-C emissions| e.g on average 99.5 g CH(4)-C per kg organic carbon input under intermittent flood conditions| and 191.7 g CH(4)-C per kg organic carbon input under continuous flood conditions| respectively. By alteration of organic matter amendment from rice season to off-rice upland crop season| estimated CH(4)-C emissions in China could be cut by 3.5 Tg yr(-1)| accounting for 63% of current CH(4)-C emissions (5.5 Tg). If organic matter amendment percentage was increased from current 30% to future 50% of organic matter production and by alteration of organic matter amendment from rice season to off-rice upland crop season| the equivalent CO(2)-C mitigation potential in farmland of China would be 49.2 Tg yr(-1) at the 10th year organic matter amendment and 36.0 Tg yr(-1) at the 30th year amendment. These findings are important not only for China but also for the other rice production countries to increase farmland global warming mitigation. 351,2010,2,4,Coastal erosion and mitigation methods - Global state of art,Coastal erosion is assuming large proportions these days. Global climate change coupled with local attributes is eroding the coasts of the world in alarming proportions. Most of the conventional protection methods are hard| short lived| expensive and not eco-friendly. Trend in coastal erosion mitigation and protection has been shifting these days towards soft but novel| eco-friendly methods. Pro-active methods are being developed and used which are eco-friendly| construction-friendly| cheaper and which also reasonably address the root cause of the problem without much 'side effects'. Many non-traditional ways to armor| stabilize or restore beaches| including the use of patented precast concrete units| geotextile sand-filled bags| green belts| bio-engineering| sand fencing| beach-face dewatering systems| integrated costal protection methods are being used. Retreat from the coast is also thought about| in many circles. Present study consists the global coastal erosion scenario and also some of the state of the art soft and pro-active erosion mitigation methods. 11245,2010,5,4,COASTAL PALAEOENVIRONMENTS DURING THE LAST 8000 YEARS ON THE LION GULF WESTERN SIDE: THE SAND BAR OF THE THAU COASTAL LAGOON (SETIF CORING| SETE| HERAULT),COASTAL PALAEOENVIRONMENTS DURING THE LAST 8000 YEARS ON THE LION GULF WESTERN SIDE: THE SAND BAR OF THE THAU COASTAL LAGOON (SETIF CORING| SETE| HERAULT) The present active lagoon system of the Than lagoon has begun shortly alter 7050 BP (5580-5255 cal BC). However| the setting up of the coastal system coupling sand bar and coastal lagoon took place probably before. This system belongs to a morphosystem dominated by the waves within a sedimentary context poor in sedimentary sources. The present erosion of this littoral echoes back to an ancient dynamics showing a backing of the sand bar joining the Mount Saint-Clair to the Pioch (Agde volcano) shortly after 6500 BP (5068-4660 cal BC). The pollen analysis of sequence SETIF reports this dynamic instability and allows its to outline the coastal vegetation evolution. The pollen sequence shows both the global warming and the palaeoecological and palaeogeographical changes that are characteristic of this coastal area. The local thermophilous feature of the life conditions linked to the Mount Saint-Clair| the perception of the offshore bar arrival| the fluctuations of the unsteady environments (sand bar| lagoon banks) and the different stages of human activities recorded since the ancient Neolithic are the main contributions of the SETIF palynological results. The observations related to the local relative sea level are consistent with the regional data. but show some peculiarities such as the perched characteristic of the salt water table forming the Than coastal palaeo-lagoon until 6540 40 BP (5068-4660 BC). 11349,2010,4,3,Combined biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of large-scale forest cover changes in the MPI earth system model,Afforestation and reforestation have become popular instruments of climate mitigation policy| as forests are known to store large quantities of carbon. However| they also modify the fluxes of energy| water and momentum at the land surface. Previous studies have shown that these biogeophysical effects can counteract the carbon drawdown and| in boreal latitudes| even overcompensate it due to large albedo differences between forest canopy and snow. This study investigates the role forest cover plays for global climate by conducting deforestation and afforestation experiments with the earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-ESM). Complete deforestation of the tropics (18.75 degrees S-15 degrees N) exerts a global warming of 0.4 degrees C due to an increase in CO(2) concentration by initially 60 ppm and a decrease in evapotranspiration in the deforested areas. In the northern latitudes (45 degrees N-90 degrees N)| complete deforestation exerts a global cooling of 0.25 degrees C after 100 years| while afforestation leads to an equally large warming| despite the counteracting changes in CO(2) concentration. Earlier model studies are qualitatively confirmed by these findings. As the response of temperature as well as terrestrial carbon pools is not of equal sign at every land cell| considering forests as cooling in the tropics and warming in high latitudes seems to be true only for the spatial mean| but not on a local scale. 522,2010,2,4,COMBINED EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE| ULTRAVIOLET-B RADIATION| AND WATERING REGIME ON GROWTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL PROCESSES IN CANOLA (BRASSICA NAPUS) SEEDLINGS,Relatively few studies have investigated plant responses to the combined effects of multiple environmental factors. We studied the responses of canola (Brassica napus) seedlings to combinations of temperatures (22 degrees/18 degrees C and 28 degrees/24 degrees C)| ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation levels (5 [ambient] and 10 [enhanced] kJ m(-2) d(-1))| and watering regimes (well watered and water stressed). The higher temperature decreased stem diameter| leaf area| individual organ and total-plant dry mass (DM)| net CO(2) assimilation (AN)| water use efficiency (WUE)| the chlorophyll (Chl) a-Chl b ratio| and UV-absorbing compounds but increased specific leaf mass (SLM)| leaf mass ratio (LMR)| shoot-root ratio (SRR)| and Chl b. Enhanced UVB reduced leaf number and area| DM accumulation| SLM| LMR| AN| WUE| carotenoids| and Chl a : Chl b but increased leaf area ratio| SRR| and ethylene evolution. Water stress decreased plant growth| leaf moisture| leaf| stem| and total DM| LMR| SRR| and gas exchange but increased photosynthetic pigments| UV-absorbing compounds| epicuticular wax| and ethylene evolution. Many plant parameters were affected by two-and three-way interactions. Main factors and their interactions revealed that water stress has a larger negative influence on plants than the other two factors. We suggest that| under conditions of global climate change| water stress may have a stronger effect on plant performance than UVB radiation. 11489,2010,2,4,Combined impacts of longline fisheries and climate on the persistence of the Amsterdam Albatross Diomedia amsterdamensis,Incidental capture of seabirds in longline fishing gear is a central issue in the conservation of many long-lived marine species. Despite growing evidence of climate-induced effects on population trends of long-lived species| climate change remains generally overlooked in most risk assessments of seabirds. Because variation in climate may interact with the detrimental effects of bycatch| considering climate is of great importance| especially in the context of ongoing global warming. This paper examines the combined effects of bycatch and climate change on the persistence of one of the world's rarest birds| the Amsterdam Albatross Diomedea amsterdamensis| which has a single population in the upland plateau of Amsterdam Island (Southeast Indian Ocean). Using continuous monitoring from 1983 onwards| we first estimated the relationship between climate and the species' demographic parameters. We then built a stochastic matrix population model to estimate the population growth rate and the probability that the population declines below the level recorded in 1983 of nine breeding pairs under different scenarios involving the joint effects of additional mortality caused by longline fisheries and climate change. The results suggest that the demography of the Amsterdam Albatross is influenced by climate in both breeding and wintering grounds and that these relationships may to some extent compensate for the impact of additive bycatch mortality. However| these compensatory effects would be negligible if the annual additional mortality exceeds around six individuals per year| suggesting that the resumption of longline fishery in the foraging range of the Amsterdam Albatross would rapidly put this species at risk of extinction. 11153,2010,2,4,Combined observations of rock mass movements using satellite SAR interferometry| differential GPS| airborne digital photogrammetry| and airborne photography interpretation,Recent global warming| through the related retreat of mountain glaciers| causes a growing number of different slope instabilities requiring accurate and cost-effective monitoring. We investigate the potential of combined remote sensing observations from satellite and airborne microwave and optical sensors for an efficient survey of mountainous ground displacements. The evolution of a paraglacial deep-seated rock mass movement due to glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps has been observed between 1976 and 2008 with satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry| differential GPS| and airborne digital photogrammetry. Analysis of differential SAR interferograms revealed an acceleration of the landslide from similar to 4 cm/yr in the slope-parallel direction during the mid-1990s to more than 30 cm/yr in the summer of 2008. Differential GPS surveys performed between the summers of 2007 and 2008 indicate seasonal variations of the landslide activity. The photogrammetric analysis revealed no significant movement (i.e.| <1 cm/yr) between 1976 and 1995 and provides an overview of the total displacement between 1995 and 2006 with high spatial resolution. In situ and airborne photography interpretation suggests that the landslide was activated at earliest by the end of the Last Glaciation but without any significant long-lasting activity during the Holocene and that the exponentially increasing reactivation since the 1990s is the result of ongoing debutressing of the valley flank due to the glacier retreat in combination with strong precipitation and snowmelt events. We conclude that the employed remote sensing techniques complement each other well within a landslide hazard assessment procedure. 10553,2010,3,4,Comparative life cycle assessment of margarine and butter consumed in the UK| Germany and France,The goal of the study was to compare the environmental impact of butter and margarine. Altogether| seven products were studied in three European markets: UK| Germany and France. The approach used for the analysis is descriptive (attributional) LCA. The SimaPro software PR| 2007 was used to perform the calculations. Data for the production chain of the margarine products (production of raw materials| processing| packaging and logistics) were compiled from Unilever manufacturing sites| suppliers and from literature. The edible oil data inventories have been compared with those in proprietary databases (ecoinvent and SIK food database) and they show a high degree of similarity. For the butter products| data on milk production and butter processing were taken from various published studies for the countries of interest. Sensitivity analyses were conducted for a number of parameters (functional unit| allocation method| impact of using different oil| milk and dairy data| impact of estimating GHG emissions from land use change for certain oils) in order to evaluate their influence on the comparison between margarine and butter. The sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the initial results and conclusions are robust. The results show that margarine has significantly lower environmental impact (less than half) compared to butter for three impact categories global warming potential| eutrophication potential and acidification potential. For primary energy demand| the margarines have a lower impact than butter| but the difference is not as significant. Margarines use approximately half of the land required used for producing the butter products. For POCP| the impact is higher for the margarines due to the use of hexane in the oil extraction (no similar process occurs for butter). The margarine products analysed here are more environmentally favourable than the butter products. In all three markets (UK| DE and FR) the margarine products are significantly better than the butter products for the categories global warming potential| eutrophication potential and acidification potential. These findings are also valid when comparing margarines and butters between the markets; for this reason they are likely to be of general relevance for other Western European countries where similar margarine and butter production systems are found. 11314,2010,3,3,Comparative life cycle assessment of rapeseed oil and palm oil,The environmental effect of globalisation has been debated intensively in the last decades. Only few well-documented analyses of global versus local product alternatives exist| whilst recommendations on buying local are vast. At the same time| the European Environmental Agency's Third Assessment concludes that the resource use within the EU is stabilising at the expense of increased resource use for import of products to the EU. Taking its point of departure in vegetable oils| this article compares rapeseed oil and palm oil as a local and a global alternative for meeting the increasing demand for these products in the EU. By using detailed life cycle assessment (LCA)| this study compares the environmental impacts and identifies alternative ways of producing rapeseed oil and palm oil to the EU market in order to reduce environmental impacts. The consequential approach for system delimitation is applied (Ekvall and Weidema 2004; Weidema 2003; Schmidt 2008a; Schmidt and Weidema 2008). This approach differs from the attributional approach in a way that the actual affected suppliers and technologies are modelled instead of averages. In addition| co-product allocation is avoided by system expansion. The method for life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is EDIP97 updated (LCA-Center 2007). In addition| land use and the associated impacts on biodiversity are assessed using the LCIA method described in Schmidt (2008b). The characterised results of the LCA show that palm oil is environmentally preferable to rapeseed oil within ozone depletion| acidification| eutrophication| photochemical smog and land use| whilst the differences within global warming and biodiversity are less clear. The most significant process contributing to global warming from rapeseed oil is the cultivation of rapeseed| whilst the oil palm cultivation and the palm oil mill (effluent treatment) are equally important. Regarding land use and biodiversity for rapeseed oil| the avoided production caused by system expansion has a major role| whilst system expansion has only limited effect on the results of palm oil. Alternative cultivation practices and technologies are assessed. The findings for rapeseed oil are that local expansions of the cultivated area on set-aside area is preferable to displacement of crops which are compensated for by increased agricultural production abroad and that the full press technology in the oil mill is preferable to solvent extraction. Concerning palm oil| cultivation on peat increases the contribution to global warming significantly with a factor of 4-5 compared to cultivation on the current mix of soils types. The other hotspot related to global warming (effluent treatment) can be markedly reduced by installation of digester tanks and subsequent utilisation of biogas. The results of the scenarios show that the approach to system delimitation matters. When the consequential approach to system delimitation is applied in the agricultural stage| uncertainties show to be significant. These uncertainties are mainly related to the determination of how increased production is achieved| increased cultivated area and/or increased intensification. Overall| palm oil tends to be environmentally preferable to rapeseed oil within all impact categories except global warming| biodiversity and ecotoxicity where the difference is less pronounced and where it is highly dependent on the assumptions regarding system delimitation in the agricultural stage. Since the environmental performance of rapeseed oil and palm oil is a result of the current applied technologies and since improvement options exist in both product systems| it may be more relevant for decision makers to focus on requirements on the applied technologies in the product systems rather than preferring the one oil over the other. 510,2010,2,4,Comparative photosynthesis| growth| productivity| and nutrient use efficiency among tall- and short-stemmed rain-fed cassava cultivars,Field trials under rain-fed conditions at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in Colombia were conducted to study the comparative leaf photosynthesis| growth| yield| and nutrient use efficiency in two groups of cassava cultivars representing tall (large leaf canopy and shoot biomass) and short (small leaf canopy and shoot biomass) plant types. Using the standard plant density (10|000 plants ha(-1))| tall cultivars produced higher shoot biomass| larger seasonal leaf area indices (LAIs) and greater final storage root yields than the short cultivars. At six months after planting| yields were similar in both plant types with the short ones tending to form and fill storage roots at a much earlier time in their growth stage. Root yield| shoot and total biomass in all cultivars were significantly correlated with seasonal average LAI. Short cultivars maintained lower than optimal LAI for yield. Seasonal P (N)| across cultivars| was 12% greater in short types| with maximum values obtained in Brazilian genotypes. This difference in P (N) was attributed to nonstomatal factors (i.e.| anatomical/biochemical mesophyll characteristics). Compared with tall cultivars| short ones had 14 to 24 % greater nutrient use efficiency (NUE) in terms of storage root production. The lesser NUE in tall plants was attributed mainly to more total nutrient uptake than in short cultivars. It was concluded that short-stemmed cultivars are superior in producing dry matter in their storage roots per unit nutrient absorbed| making them advantageous for soil fertility conservation while their yields approach those in tall types. It was recommended that breeding programs should focus on selection for more efficient short- to medium-stemmed genotypes since resource-limited cassava farmers rarely apply agrochemicals nor recycle residual parts of the crop back to the soil. Such improved short types were expected to surpass tall types in yields when grown at higher than standard plant population densities (> 10|000 plants ha(-1)) in order to maximize irradiance interception. Below a certain population density (< 10|000 plants ha(-1))| tall cultivars should be planted. Findings were discussed in relation to cultivation and cropping systems strategies for water and nutrient conservation and use efficiencies under stressful environments as well as under predicted water deficits in the tropics caused by trends in global climate change. Cassava is expected to play a major role in food and biofuel production due to its high photosynthetic capacity and its ability to conserve water as compared to major cereal grain crops. The interdisciplinary/interinstitutions research reported here| including an associated release of a drought-tolerant| short-stem cultivar that was eagerly accepted by cassava farmers| reflects well on the productivity of the CIAT international research in Cali| Colombia. 11257,2010,3,3,Comparative scuffing performance and chemical analysis of metallic surfaces for air-conditioning compressors in the presence of environmentally friendly CO(2) refrigerant,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) has received significant interest as an alternative refrigerant for air-conditioning compressors due to its environmental benefits. These environmental benefits include zero ozone depletion potential and minimal global warming potential compared to commonly used hydrochlorofluorocarbon and hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants. This study presents results for three typical metallic tribopairs commonly found in air conditioning compressors| namely| Al390-T6| gray cast iron| and Mn-Si brass against 52|100 steel pins. The experiments were performed using a specialized tribometer capable of simulating compressor conditions| and in the presence of CO(2) and polyalkylene glycol lubricant. It was found that the scuffing resistance of gray cast iron and Mn-Si brass was similar and both materials performed better than Al390-T6. Through scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy it was found that lead in Mn-Si brass melted during scuffing| and prevented sudden catastrophic failure of Mn-Si brass| unlike gray cast iron and Al390-T6 which failed abruptly. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy conducted on the worn surfaces showed that chemically different species were present on the surfaces and their lubricious effect| originating from different metal oxides| could explain the scuffing behavior of the investigated alloys. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11188,2010,3,4,Comparative study of municipal solid waste treatment technologies using life cycle assessment method,The aim of the study is to analyze three different waste treatment technologies by life cycle assessment tool. Sanitary Landfill| Incineration and gasification-pyrolysis of the waste treatment technologies are studied in SimaPro software based on input-output materials flow. SimaPro software has been applied for analyzing environmental burden by different impact categories. All technologies are favorable to abiotic and ozone layer depletion due to energy recovery from the waste treatment facilities. Sanitary landfill has the significantly lower environmental impact among other thermal treatment while gases are used for fuel with control emission environment. However| sanitary landfill has significant impact on photochemical oxidation| global warming and acidification. Among thermal technology| pyrolysis-gasification is comparatively more favorable to environment than incineration in global warming| acidification| eutrophication and eco-toxicity categories. Landfill with energy recovery facilities is environmentally favorable. However| due to large land requirement| difficult emission control system and long time span| restriction on land filling is applying more in the developed countries. Pyrolysis-gasification is more environmental friendly technology than incineration due to higher energy recovery efficiency. Life cycle assessment is an effective tool to analyze waste treatment technology based on environmental performances. 417,2010,2,4,Comparative water use of native and invasive plants at multiple scales: a global meta-analysis,Ecohydrology and invasive ecology have become increasingly important in the context of global climate change. This study presents the first in-depth analysis of the water use of invasive and native plants of the same growth form at multiple scales: leaf| plant| and ecosystem. We reanalyzed data for several hundred native and invasive species from over 40 published studies worldwide to glean global trends and to highlight how patterns vary depending on both scale and climate. We analyzed all pairwise combinations of co-occurring native and invasive species for higher comparative resolution of the likelihood of an invasive species using more water than a native species and tested for significance using bootstrap methods. At each scale| we found several-fold differences in water use between specific paired invasive and native species. At the leaf scale| we found a strong tendency for invasive species to have greater stomatal conductance than native species. At the plant scale| however| natives and invasives were equally likely to have the higher sap flow rates. Available data were much fewer for the ecosystem scale; nevertheless| we found that invasive-dominated ecosystems were more likely to have higher sap flow rates per unit ground area than native-dominated ecosystems. Ecosystem-scale evapotranspiration| on the other hand| was equally likely to be greater for systems dominated by invasive and native species of the same growth form. The inherent disconnects in the determination of water use when changing scales from leaf to plant to ecosystem reveal hypotheses for future studies and a critical need for more ecosystem-scale water use measurements in invasive-vs. native-dominated systems. The differences in water use of native and invasive species also depended strongly on climate| with the greater water use of invasives enhanced in hotter| wetter climates at the coarser scales. 10476,2010,3,4,Comparing environmental impacts of electricity| heat and fuel from energy crops: Evaluating biogas utilization pathways by the basket of benefit methodology,Since the potentially available agricultural land for energy crop cultivation is limited| the area should be used in a sustainable and efficient way. In this project| the "basket of benefit" methodology| a special life-cycle assessment approach| is used to calculate emissions of different bioenergy pathways| related to 1 ha of agricultural land. The method comprises both land use and energy output in one functional unit and enables a comparison in spite of the different "end use" (electricity| heat| and fuels). In this article| environmental impacts of different utilization pathways of biogas from energy crops are assessed. Decentralized electricity and heat production in a cogeneration plant is compared with feeding purified biomethane into the gas grid for centralized electricity and heat production| and to the usage as transportation fuel. Similarly| biogas is compared with biodiesel from rapeseed and bioethanol from sugar beet. Calculations are based on the conditions in south-east Germany. Results for the impact categories global warming potential and eutrophication potential are presented. Regarding greenhouse gas emissions| the results are heterogeneous: Biogas shows fewer emissions than biodiesel and bioethanol only if a big proportion of the generated heat is consumed. Biogas use as biofuel can be rated similar to the use of the other biofuels. Due to the application of digestates as fertilizer| biogas exhibits a higher eutrophication potential than the other bioenergy carriers. At the moment| more bioenergy pathways| as well as additional impact categories| are being included into the analysis. 10743,2010,4,4,Comparing variability and trends in observed and modelled global-mean surface temperature,The observed evolution of the global-mean surface temperature over the twentieth century reflects the combined influences of natural variations and anthropogenic forcing| and it is a primary goal of climate models to represent both. In this study we isolate| compare| and remove the following natural signals in observations and in climate models: dynamically induced atmospheric variability| the El Nino-Southern Oscillation| and explosive volcanic eruptions. We make clear the significant model-to-model variability in estimates of the variance in global-mean temperature associated with these natural signals| especially associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and explosive volcanic eruptions. When these natural signals are removed from time series of global-mean temperature| the statistical uncertainty in linear trends from 1950 to 2000 drops on average by about half. Hence| the results make much clearer than before where some model estimates of global warming significantly deviate from observations and where others do not. Citation: Fyfe| J. C.| N. P. Gillett| and D. W. J. Thompson (2010)| Comparing variability and trends in observed and modelled global-mean surface temperature| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L16802| doi:10.1029/2010GL044255. 10603,2010,4,4,Comparison of greenhouse gas fluxes and nitrogen budgets from an ombotrophic bog in Scotland and a minerotrophic sedge fen in Finland,Northern peatlands cover approximately 4% of the global land surface area. Those peatlands will be particularly vulnerable to environmental and climate change and therefore it is important to investigate their total greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets| to determine the feedback on the climate. Nitrogen (N) is known to influence the GHG budget in particular by affecting the methane (CH(4)) balance. At two peatland sites in Scotland and Finland GHG fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO(2))| methane and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and nitrogen fluxes were measured as part of the European project 'NitroEurope'. The Scottish site| Auchencorth Moss| was a GHG sink of -321| -490 and -321 g CO(2) eq m(-2) year(-1) in 2006| 2007 and 2008| respectively| with CO(2) as the dominating GHG. In contrast| the dominating GHG at the Finnish site| Lompolojankka| was CH(4)| resulting in the site being a net GHG source of +485 and +431 g CO(2) eq m(-2) year(-1) in 2006 and 2007| respectively. Therefore. Auchencorth Moss had a negative global warming potential (GWP) whilst Lompolojankka had a positive GWP over the investigated time period. Initial results yielded a positive N budget for Lompolojankka of 7.1 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)| meaning the site was gaining nitrogen| and a negative N budget for Auchencorth Moss of -2.4 kg N ha year(-1)| meaning the site was losing nitrogen. 451,2010,2,4,Comparison of mayfly (Ephemeroptera) taxocenes of permanent and intermittent Central European small streams via species traits,The recurrent drying out of small streams in past decades has shown an urgent need to pay attention to the impact of global climate change. The objectives of this study were to describe the effect of drying out on the composition of the mayfly taxocene and evaluate the relevance of individual species traits for survival of mayflies to drying out. The mayfly taxocenes of two model localities| one at an intermittent and one at a permanent brook| were investigated in 2002| 2003 and 2005. Compared with the permanent stream| the taxocene of the intermittent stream was short of nine species| foremost rheobionts and high oxygen demand species. To explain further differences between both stream types in survival and recolonisation ability| 15 species traits were evaluated. These included so-called "ecological traits" (e.g.| habitat and substrate range| density| distribution| current velocity adaptation) and "biological traits" connected with life cycle and larval/adult adaptations. Species showing the highest number of advantageous traits (with only exception of Electrogena sp. cf. ujhelyii - species of taxonomically unclear status) were able to successfully survive under the unfavourable conditions of the intermittent brook. Biological traits considered more important in many respects seem to be good predictors for assessing sensitivity to extreme temperature changes| hydrological regime fluctuations and the survival/recolonisation ability of species in exposed habitats. 630,2010,4,4,Comparison of soil water content and corn yield in furrow and conventional ridge sown systems in a semiarid region of China,Water deficits and unusually warm soil temperatures can adversely affect conventional ridge sown systems. Increasingly serious water and temperature issues associated with global climate change may be problematic in the future| particularly in semiarid regions. This study explored the soil water and crop yield benefits of switching the sowing location of corn from ridges to furrows. Experiments were conducted over three years. Corn was grown in shallow furrow (SF) and deep furrow (DF) sown treatments until the V8 stage (eight visible leaf collars). New ridges were then built over the existing furrows. Grain yield was found to be higher in the SF and DF sown treatments than in a conventional ridge sown treatment (CR)| especially in drought years. Switching sowing position from ridge to furrow could increase corn yield| directly| by improving soil moisture early in the growing season and| indirectly| by stimulating the growth of resource-capturing organs (e.g.| leaves and roots). This simple and efficient approach to crop production in semiarid climates may be practical for the management of numerous agricultural systems| particularly those that are resource-limited| with greater vulnerability to the effects of global climate change. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11538,2010,4,4,Comparison of Three Bayesian Approaches to Project Surface Air Temperature Changes over Japan Due to Global Warming,We applied three Bayesian approaches with two metrics (bias and trend) to the sensitivity study of the projection of surface air temperature (SAT) changes over Japan for winter and summer due to global warming. In addition| we investigated the differences in projected probability density functions (PDFs) produced by the Bayesian approaches with the two metrics and the arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM) using available simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3. The magnitude of model weights differs among the three Bayesian approaches with the same metrics| although the models with large weights are identical. However| models with large weights differ between the two metrics. Similar projected SAT changes of the models with large weights result in narrower PDFs of SAT changes than those of AEM. The peaks and means of the Bayesian-weighted PDFs are almost identical to those of the AEM's PDF. However| in some cases| 5| 75| and 95 percentiles of the PDFs differ distinctly among the three Bayesian approaches. Therefore| impact researchers should investigate the differences in the PDFs of SAT changes due to Bayesian approaches and metrics. 10687,2010,3,4,Comparison through a LCA evaluation analysis of food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery,This study evaluated feed manufacturing including dry feeding and wet feeding| composting| and landfilling for food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery. The method of the expanded system boundaries was employed in order to compare different by-products. The whole stages of disposal involved in the systems such as separate discharge| collection| transportation| treatment| and final disposal| were included in the system boundary and evaluated. The Global Warming Potential generated from 1 tonne of food wastes for each disposal system was analyzed by the life cycle assessment method. The results showed that 200 kg of CO(2)-eq could be produced from dry feeding process| 61 kg of CO(2)-eq from wet feeding process| 123 kg of CO(2)-eq from composting process| and 1010 kg of CO(2)-eq from landfilling. Feed manufacturing and composting| the common treatment methods currently employed| have been known to be environment friendlier than other methods. However| this study shows that they can negatively affect the environment if their by-products are not appropriately utilized as intended. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11009,2010,2,4,Competition modulates the adaptation capacity of forests to climatic stress: insights from recent growth decline and death in relict stands of the Mediterranean fir Abies pinsapo,P>1. Long-term basal area increment (BAI) in Abies pinsapo was studied to investigate the way density-dependent factors modulate the responses of radial growth to climatic stresses in relict stands of a drought-sensitive Mediterranean fir. 2. First| we verified that spatially explicit competition predicts mean A. pinsapo BAI at our study site; i.e. it modulates the degree to which the average climate-driven potential for growth is expressed. Second| we verified that the long-term pattern of temperature predicts the long-term pattern of BAI| estimated as the main trend over a time period of c. 40 years. Finally| we assessed whether the intensity of tree-to-tree competition restrains the potential improvements achieved by our model of BAI when a short-term| high-frequency stressor such as drought (inter-annual precipitation variability) is introduced. 3. We applied Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA) to characterize regional climatic trends and to test the hypothesis that trees subjected to contrasting competition intensity may differ in their growth pattern. Significant long-term climate trends obtained by DFA were used as predictors of long-term BAI. 4. The mean BAI was mainly determined by competition| whereas growth trends obtained by DFA did not differ among dominant| suppressed and dying trees. Common trends of growth decline were strongly related to long-term| late-winter to summer temperatures| while the residuals were related to total annual precipitation| although with decreasing significance as competition increased. Our results support the contention that the reported patterns of A. pinsapo growth decline and death occur as a result of the interacting effects of both competition and climate stressors acting at long- and short-term time scales. 5.Synthesis. Long-term climatic drought stress was the main driving factor of growth decline in A. pinsapo. Moreover| trees already suffering from competition (a long-term stress) were predisposed to decline given an additional short-term stress| such as a severe drought. 11442,2010,4,3,Complete genome sequence of Methanoplanus petrolearius type strain (SEBR 4847(T)),Methanoplanus petrolearius Ollivier et al. 1998 is the type strain of the genus Methanoplanus. The strain was originally isolated from an offshore oil field from the Gulf of Guinea. Members of the genus Methanoplanus are of interest because they play an important role in the carbon cycle and also because of their significant contribution to the global warming by methane emission in the atmosphere. Like other archaea of the family Methanomicrobiales| the members of the genus Methanoplanus are able to use CO(2) and H(2) as a source of carbon and energy; acetate is required for growth and probably also serves as carbon source. Here we describe the features of this organism| together with the complete genome sequence and annotation. This is the first complete genome sequence of a member of the family Methanomicrobiaceae and the sixth complete genome sequence from the order Methanomicrobiales. The 2|843|290 bp long genome with its 2|824 protein-coding and 57 RNA genes is a part of the Genomic Encyclopedia of Bacteria and Archaea project. 11263,2010,2,4,Compounded effects of climate change and habitat alteration shift patterns of butterfly diversity,Climate change and habitat destruction have been linked to global declines in vertebrate biodiversity| including mammals| amphibians| birds| and fishes. However| invertebrates make up the vast majority of global species richness| and the combined effects of climate change and land use on invertebrates remain poorly understood. Here we present 35 years of data on 159 species of butterflies from 10 sites along an elevational gradient spanning 0-2|775 m in a biodiversity hotspot| the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Northern California. Species richness has declined at half of the sites| with the most severe reductions at the lowest elevations| where habitat destruction is greatest. At higher elevations| we observed clear upward shifts in the elevational ranges of species| consistent with the influence of global warming. Taken together| these long-term data reveal the interacting negative effects of human-induced changes on both the climate and habitat available to butterfly species in California. Furthermore| the decline of ruderal| disturbance-associated species indicates that the traditional focus of conservation efforts on more specialized and less dispersive species should be broadened to include entire faunas when estimating and predicting the effects of pervasive stressors. 11377,2010,3,1,Conceptual design and simulation analysis of thermal behaviors of TGR blast furnace and oxygen blast furnace,Extensive use of carbon based fuel is the main inducement for global warming and more extreme weather. Reducing carbon dioxide emission and enhancing energy use is a common subject in steel industry. In the integrated steel plant| decreasing carbon dioxide emission must consider energy balance in the whole iron and steel works| and secondary energy must be actively utilized. As promising blast-furnaces| top gas recovery blast furnace (TGR-BF) and oxygen blast furnace have been investigated. In this paper| conceptual TGR blast furnace and oxygen blast furnace are proposed. Base on the idea of blast furnace gas de-CO(2) circulating as reducing agent and the idea of pure oxygen blast decreasing the thermal reserve zone temperature| process modeling is conducted with ASPEN Plus. It is shown that the developed model reasonably describes the energy balance and mass balance feature of the furnace| and provides basic thermodynamic condition for furnaces. The effects of changes in different operation conditions are studied by sensitivity analysis and reference data from simulation. 581,2010,2,4,Conservation management approaches to protecting the capacity for corals to respond to climate change: a theoretical comparison,Multiple anthropogenic impacts| including bleaching from climate change-related thermal stress| threaten coral reefs. Protecting coral capacity to respond to the increase in future thermal stress expected with climate change can involve (1) protecting coral reefs with characteristics indicative of greater resistance and resilience to climate change| and (2) reducing other anthropogenic impacts that are more likely to reduce coral resistance and resilience to climate change. Here| we quantitatively compare possible priorities and existing recommendations for protecting coral response capacity to climate change. Specifically| we explore the relative importance of the relevant dynamics| processes| and parameters in a size-structured model of coral and zooxanthellae ecological and evolutionary dynamics given projected future thermal stress. Model results with varying initial conditions indicate that protecting diverse coral communities is critical| and protecting communities with higher abundances of more thermally tolerant coral species and symbiont types secondary| to the long-term maintenance of coral cover. A sensitivity analysis of the coral population size in each size class and the total coral cover with respect to all parameter values suggests greater relative importance of reducing additional anthropogenic impacts that affect coral-macroalgal competition| early coral life history stages| and coral survivorship (compared with reproduction| growth| and shrinkage). Finally| model results with temperature trajectories from different locations| with and without connectivity| indicate that protection of| and connectivity to| low-thermal-stress locations may enhance the capacity for corals to respond to climate change. 552,2010,2,4,Conservation of natural wilderness values in the Port Davey marine and estuarine protected area| south-western Tasmania,1. Port Davey and associated Bathurst Harbour in south-western Tasmania represent one of the world's most anomalous estuarine systems owing to an unusual combination of environmental factors. These include: (i) large uninhabited catchment protected as a National Park; (ii) ria geomorphology but with fjord characteristics that include a shallow entrance and deep 12-km long channel connecting an almost land-locked harbour to the sea; (iii) high rainfall and riverine input that generate strongly-stratified estuarine conditions| with a low-salinity surface layer and marine bottom water; (iv) a deeply tannin-stained surface layer that blocks light penetration to depth; (v) very low levels of nutrients and low aquatic productivity; (vi) weak tidal influences; (vii) marine bottom water with stable temperature throughout the year; (viii) numerous endemic species; (ix) strongly depth-stratified benthic assemblages exhibiting high compositional variability over small spatial scales; (x) deepsea species present at anomalously shallow depths; (xi) no conspicuous introduced taxa; (xii) a predominance of fragile sessile invertebrates| including slow-growing fenestrate bryozoans; and (xiii) sponge spicule-and bryozoan-based sediments that are more characteristic of deep sea and polar environments than those inshore. 2. Although this region has historically been protected by its isolation| seven major anthropogenic stressors now threaten its natural integrity: boating| fishing| dive tourism| nutrient enrichment| introduced species| onshore development| and global climate change. These threats are not randomly distributed but disproportionately affect particular habitat types. 3. For management of environmental risk| the Port Davey-Bathurst Harbour region is subdivided into six biophysical zones| each with different ecological characteristics| values| and types and levels of potential threat. In response to the various threats| the Tasmanian Government has enacted an adaptive management regime that includes a multi-zoned marine protected area and the largest 'no-take' estuarine protected area in Australia. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 10639,2010,2,4,Conservation of species interaction networks,Recent work has shown that antagonist (e.g. predator-prey food web) and mutualist (e.g. pollinator-plant) network structure can be altered by global environmental change drivers| and that these alterations may have important ecosystem-level consequences. This has prompted calls for the conservation of network structure| but precisely which attributes of webs should be conserved remains unclear. Further| the extent to which network metrics characterise the spatiotemporally-variable dynamic structure of interacting communities is unknown. Here| we summarise the attributes of web structure that are predicted to confer stability or increased function to a system| as these may be of greatest interest to conservation biologists. However| empirical evaluation of these effects is lacking in most cases| and we discuss whether stability is even desirable in all contexts. The incorporation of web attributes into conservation monitoring requires that changes in these attributes can be recorded (sampled) with relative ease. We contrast the sensitivity of metrics to sampling effort| and highlight those (such as nestedness and connectance) that could easily be incorporated into conservation monitoring. Despite our growing understanding of the characteristics of food webs that confer stability and function| numerous practical challenges need to be overcome before the goal of conserving species interaction networks can be achieved. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 398,2010,2,4,Conservation status and management of the Gove Crow Euploea alcathoe enastri (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)| a threatened tropical butterfly from the indigenous Aboriginal lands of north-eastern Arnhem Land| Australia,The Gove Crow butterfly| Euploea alcathoe enastri Fenner| 1991| is restricted to Gove Peninsula of north-eastern Arnhem Land| a remote area of northern Australia. The subspecies has been listed as an Endangered taxon under federal and Northern Territory legislation| and represents one of only a few cases in the Australian Region in which a tropical butterfly has been targeted for species-orientated conservation. However| accurate status evaluation and conservation management have been hampered by lack of detailed information on spatial distribution| critical habitat| and the extent and severity of threatening processes. Surveys carried out during 2006-2008 indicate that the subspecies has a limited geographical range (extent of occurrence approximately 6|700 km(2)) within which it is recorded from 11 locations or subpopulations embracing a total of 21 sites. Most sites comprise discrete habitat patches that are relatively small in area (< 10 ha) within which adults are localised and occur in low abundance (< 15 h(-1)). Of the four major habitat types in which E. alcathoe enastri was detected| only mixed paperbark tall open forest with rainforest elements in the understorey and rainforest edge (i.e. the ecotone between evergreen monsoon vine-forest and eucalypt/paperbark woodland) comprise breeding habitats. These habitat patches were always associated with permanent creeks or perennial groundwater seepages or springs that form swamplands| usually along drainage lines or flood plains in coastal or near coastal lowland areas. Major threats identified at the site level are habitat modification through altered fire regime and habitat disturbance by feral animals (buffalo| pig); potential threats at the landscape level include habitat loss through invasive species (grassy weeds| tramp ants) and global climate change. However| since critical breeding areas are subject to natural disturbance by both fire and flood| and occasionally cyclonic events| an optimal balance in disturbance regime is probably required to sustain breeding populations. Although E. alcathoe enastri is a narrow-range endemic that is ecologically specialised| there is no evidence of decline. Accordingly| the conservation status of the subspecies should be regarded as Near Threatened ('Conservation Dependent') under IUCN criteria. Components for an effective long-term conservation management plan of the butterfly and its habitat| which largely depend on the cooperation of traditional landowners and involvement of local indigenous ranger groups| are briefly discussed. 621,2010,2,4,Conserving migratory land birds in the New World: Do we know enough?,Migratory bird needs must be met during four phases of the year: breeding season| fall migration| wintering| and spring migration; thus| management may be needed during all four phases. The bulk of research and management has focused on the breeding season| although several issues remain unsettled| including the spatial extent of habitat influences on fitness and the importance of habitat on the breeding grounds used after breeding. Although detailed investigations have shed light on the ecology and population dynamics of a few avian species| knowledge is sketchy for most species. Replication of comprehensive studies is needed for multiple species across a range of areas. Information deficiencies are even greater during the wintering season| when birds require sites that provide security and food resources needed for survival and developing nutrient reserves for spring migration and| possibly| reproduction. Research is needed on many species simply to identify geographic distributions| wintering sites| habitat use| and basic ecology. Studies are complicated| however| by the mobility of birds and by sexual segregation during winter. Stable-isotope methodology has offered an opportunity to identify linkages between breeding and wintering sites| which facilitates understanding the complete annual cycle of birds. The twice-annual migrations are the poorest-understood events in a bird's life. Migration has always been a risky undertaking| with such anthropogenic features as tall buildings| towers| and wind generators adding to the risk. Species such as woodland specialists migrating through eastern North America have numerous options for pausing during migration to replenish nutrients| but some species depend on limited stopover locations. Research needs for migration include identifying pathways and timetables of migration| quality and distribution of habitats| threats posed by towers and other tall structures| and any bottlenecks for migration. Issues such as human population growth| acid deposition| climate change| and exotic diseases arc global concerns with uncertain consequences to migratory birds and even less-certain remedies. Despite enormous gaps in our understanding of these birds| research| much of it occurring in the past 30 years| has provided sufficient information to make intelligent conservation efforts but needs to expand to handle future challenges. 10403,2010,4,4,Considerations for parameter optimization and sensitivity in climate models,Climate models exhibit high sensitivity in some respects| such as for differences in predicted precipitation changes under global warming. Despite successful large-scale simulations| regional climatology features prove difficult to constrain toward observations| with challenges including high-dimensionality| computationally expensive simulations| and ambiguity in the choice of objective function. In an atmospheric General Circulation Model forced by observed sea surface temperature or coupled to a mixed-layer ocean| many climatic variables yield rms-error objective functions that vary smoothly through the feasible parameter range. This smoothness occurs despite nonlinearity strong enough to reverse the curvature of the objective function in some parameters| and to imply limitations on multimodel ensemble means as an estimator of global warming precipitation changes. Low-order polynomial fits to the model output spatial fields as a function of parameter (quadratic in model field| fourth-order in objective function) yield surprisingly successful metamodels for many quantities and facilitate a multiobjective optimization approach. Tradeoffs arise as optima for different variables occur at different parameter values| but with agreement in certain directions. Optima often occur at the limit of the feasible parameter range| identifying key parameterization aspects warranting attention-here the interaction of convection with free tropospheric water vapor. Analytic results for spatial fields of leading contributions to the optimization help to visualize tradeoffs at a regional level| e.g.| how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional error under minimization of global objective functions. The approach is sufficiently simple to guide parameter choices and to aid intercomparison of sensitivity properties among climate models. 11083,2010,3,3,Considering Time in LCA: Dynamic LCA and Its Application to Global Warming Impact Assessments,The lack of temporal information is an important limitation of life cycle assessment (LCA). A dynamic LCA approach is proposed to improve the accuracy of LCA by addressing the inconsistency of temporal assessment. This approach consists of first computing a dynamic life cycle inventory (LCI)| considering the temporal profile of emissions. Then| time-dependent characterization factors are calculated to assess the dynamic LCI in real-time impact scores for any given time horizon. Although generally applicable to any impact category| this approach is developed here for global warming| based on the radiative forcing concept This case study demonstrates that the use of global warming potentials for a given time horizon to characterize greenhouse gas emissions leads to an inconsistency between the time frame chosen for the analysis and the time period covered by the LCA results. Dynamic LCA is applied to the US EPA LCA on renewable fuels| which compares the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of different biofuels with fossil fuels including land-use change emissions. The comparison of the results obtained with both traditional and dynamic LCA approaches shows that the difference can be important enough to change the conclusions on whether or not a biofuel meets some given global warming reduction targets. 11157,2010,4,1,Consumption-based accounting of CO(2) emissions,CO(2) emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the primary cause of global warming. Much attention has been focused on the CO(2) directly emitted by each country| but relatively little attention has been paid to the amount of emissions associated with the consumption of goods and services in each country. Consumption-based accounting of CO(2) emissions differs from traditional| production-based inventories because of imports and exports of goods and services that| either directly or indirectly| involve CO(2) emissions. Here| using the latest available data| we present a global consumption-based CO(2) emissions inventory and calculations of associated consumption-based energy and carbon intensities. We find that| in 2004| 23% of global CO(2) emissions| or 6.2 gigatonnes CO(2)| were traded internationally| primarily as exports from China and other emerging markets to consumers in developed countries. In some wealthy countries| including Switzerland| Sweden| Austria| the United Kingdom| and France| > 30% of consumption-based emissions were imported| with net imports to many Europeans of > 4 tons CO(2) per person in 2004. Net import of emissions to the United States in the same year was somewhat less: 10.8% of total consumption-based emissions and 2.4 tons CO(2) per person. In contrast| 22.5% of the emissions produced in China in 2004 were exported| on net| to consumers elsewhere. Consumption-based accounting of CO(2) emissions demonstrates the potential for international carbon leakage. Sharing responsibility for emissions among producers and consumers could facilitate international agreement on global climate policy that is now hindered by concerns over the regional and historical inequity of emissions. 10700,2010,2,4,Continental-scale phenology: warming and chilling,With abundant evidence of recent climate warming| most vegetation studies have concentrated on its direct impacts| such as modifications to seasonal plant and animal life cycle events (phenology). The most common examples are indications of earlier onset of spring plant growth and delayed onset of autumn senescence. However| less attention has been paid to the implications of continued warming for plant species' chilling requirements. Many woody plants that grow in temperate areas require a certain amount of winter chilling to break dormancy and prepare to respond to springtime warming. Thus| a comprehensive assessment of plant species' responses to warming must also include the potential impacts of insufficient chilling. When collected at continental scale| plant species phenological data can be used to extract information relating to the combined impacts of warming and reduced chilling on plant species physiology. In this brief study| we demonstrate that common lilac first leaf and first bloom phenology (collected from multiple locations in the western United States and matched with air temperature records) can estimate the species' chilling requirement (1748 chilling hours| base 7.2 degrees C) and highlight the changing impact of warming on the plant's phenological response in light of that requirement. Specifically| when chilling is above the requirement| lilac first leaf/first bloom dates advance at a rate of -5.0/-4.2 days per 100-h reduction in chilling accumulation| while when chilling is below the requirement| they advance at a much reduced rate of -1.6/-2.2 days per 100-h reduction. With continental-scale phenology data being collected by the USA National Phenology Network (http://www.usanpn.org)| these and more complex ecological questions related to warming and chilling can be addressed for other plant species in future studies. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 11085,2010,2,3,Continuous-time| stage-structured| multiple-species model with applications to amphibians,Since the 1980s| biologists have noticed a major decline in amphibian population. The reason this is so alarming is because amphibians have been seen as a "Canary in the mine" when it comes to the world's environmental changes. With global warming and CO(2) emissions all over the news| we have become more aware of how we are impacting our world. If the decline of amphibians is a precursor to what is happening with the environment| then we need to find a good model to give us estimates on what is going to happen in the future. Here we used a predator-prey-competition model to help investigate how three amphibians might interact when confined to the same area. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 10941,2010,2,4,Contrasting effects of climatic and habitat changes on birds with northern range limits in central Europe as revealed by an analysis of breeding bird distribution in the Czech Republic,The results of spatial modelling based on various climatic change scenarios predict shifts in the geographical ranges of species Theoretically| a species can spread Into new areas if the local habitat composition meets its ecological requirements Therefore| habitat change in an unfavourable direction should inhibit climatically Induced range shifts in some species We tested this prediction using data on breeding bird distribution in the Czech Republic| a small central European country We selected 28 species whose northern range limits are in central Europe and compared their distribution in the Czech Republic between 1985-1989 and 2001-2003 From these species| we Identified 10 affected by habitat changes| such as a loss in environmental heterogeneity or agricultural intensification| using a local literature survey As a group| the 28 species did not show any significant changes in their breeding distribution However| those species affected by habitat change significantly restricted their distribution| whereas the remaining species not affected by habitat change Increased their distribution We suggest that the increasing occupancy of species not affected by habitat change could be caused by climate change However| climate cannot overshadow the negative impacts of land-use changes on the distribution of species affected by habitat change Therefore| such species could be seriously threatened they might not be able to track their climatic optima if future climate change proceeds in tandem with the destruction of their habitats 11392,2010,2,4,Contrasting effects of environmental factors during larval stage on morphological plasticity in post-metamorphic frogs,In organisms with complex life cycles| environmentally induced plasticity across sequential stages can have important consequences on morphology and life history traits such as developmental and growth rates. However| previous research in amphibians and other ectothermic vertebrates suggests that some morphological traits are generally insensitive to environmental inductions. We conducted a literature survey to examine the allometric responses in relative hind leg length and head shape of post-metamorphic anuran amphibians to induced environmental (temperature| resource level| predation and desiccation risk) variation operating during the larval phase in 44 studies using 19 species. To estimate and compare plastic responses across studies| we employed both an index of plasticity and effect sizes from a meta-analysis. We found contrasting trait responses to different environmental cues. Higher temperatures increased development more than growth rate and induced smaller heads but not overall shifts in hind leg length. In contrast| an increment in resource availability increased growth more than development| with a parallel increase in hind leg length but no change in head shape. Increases in predation risk decreased both development and growth rates and slightly reduced relative hind leg length| but there was no change in head shape. Pond desiccation induced quick development and low growth rates| with no changes in morphology. Across environments| both hind leg and head shape plasticity were positively correlated with growth rate plasticity. However| plasticity of developmental rate was only correlated with head shape plasticity. Overall| these results suggest that environmental trends predicted by global warming projections| such as increasing pond temperature and accelerating pond desiccation| will significantly influence hind leg and head morphology in metamorphic frogs| which may affect performance and| ultimately| fitness. 11219,2010,3,4,Contribution of individual waste fractions to the environmental impacts from landfilling of municipal solid waste,A number of LCA-based studies have reported on the environmental performance of landfilling of mixed waste| but little is known about the relative contributions of individual waste fractions to the overall impact potentials estimated for the mixed waste. In this paper| an empirical model has been used to estimate the emissions to the environment from landfilling of individual waste fractions. By means of the LCA-model EASEWASTE| the emissions estimated have been used to quantify how much of the overall impact potential for each impact category is to be attributed to the individual waste fractions. Impact potentials are estimated for 1 tonne of mixed waste disposed off in a conventional landfill with bottom liner| leachate collection and treatment and gas collection and utilization for electricity generation. All the environmental aspects are accounted for 100 years after disposal and several impact categories have been considered| including standard categories| toxicity-related categories and groundwater contamination. Amongst the standard and toxicity-related categories| the highest potential impact is estimated for human toxicity via soil (HTs: 12 mPE/tonne). This is mostly caused by leaching of heavy metals from ashes (e.g. residues from roads cleaning and vacuum cleaning bags)| batteries| paper and metals. On the other hand| substantial net environmental savings are estimated for the categories Global Warming (GW; -31 mPE/tonne) and Eco-Toxicity in water chronic (ETwc; -53 mPE/tonne). These savings are mostly determined by the waste fractions characterized by a high content of biogenic carbon (paper| organics| other combustible waste). These savings are due to emissions from energy generation avoided by landfill gas utilization| and by the storage of biogenic carbon in the landfill due to incomplete waste degradation. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 374,2010,2,4,Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes,Although reliable figures are often missing| considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers are universally expected for water availability in river systems under the influence of ongoing global climate change. We estimate the contribution potential of seasonally delayed glacier melt water to total water availability in large river systems. We find that the seasonally delayed glacier contribution is largest where rivers enter seasonally arid regions and negligible in the lowlands of river basins governed by monsoon climates. By comparing monthly glacier melt contributions with population densities in different altitude bands within each river basin| we demonstrate that strong human dependence on glacier melt is not collocated with highest population densities in most basins. 11174,2010,2,3,Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming,Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the year 2000. Here we show that this acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over 2000-2009 by about 25% compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. More limited data suggest that stratospheric water vapor probably increased between 1980 and 2000| which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface warming during the 1990s by about 30% as compared to estimates neglecting this change. These findings show that stratospheric water vapor is an important driver of decadal global surface climate change. 556,2010,5,4,Controls on the stratigraphic development of the Triassic Fundy Basin| Nova Scotia: implications for the tectonostratigraphic evolution of Triassic Atlantic rift basins,The Late Triassic synrift succession of the Minas sub-basin (Bay of Fundy| Nova Scotia) includes a fluvio-alluvial fan-dominated unit (lower and middle Wollville Formation)| a transitional fluvio-playa unit (upper Wolfville Formation) and an upper playa-dominated package (Blomidon Formation). We describe the facies development in the 240 m thick upper Wolfville Formation| examine vertical fades stacking patterns and develop a depositional model for this succession. The unit comprises channelized and unconfined fluvial deposits interbedded with aeolian and playa sediments that grade upward into playa deposits. The succession comprises progradational and retrogradational fluvial packages and thin aggradational playa claystones. Comparison with 11 other Atlantic margin continental Triassic rift basins allows an assessment of the controls that govern rift basin development. The transition from fluvial to playa or lacustrine conditions occurs in all basins at different times. The lack of synchronicity indicates that global climate change was not a controlling factor. We suggest that the fluvial to lacustrine or playa transition was due to a decrease in source area relief related to a decline in regional tectonic activity| and that the basin was hydrologically closed throughout sedimentation. This tectonostratigraphic model may be appropriate for other Triassic basins developed along the Atlantic margin. 11312,2010,3,3,Conversion of greenhouse gases into syngas via combined effects of discharge activation and catalysis,The topics on conversion and utilization of methane and carbon dioxide are important issues in tackling the global warming effect from the two greenhouse gases. In the present study| pure plasma and plasma catalytic activation of methane and carbon dioxide were investigated for syngas production. For pure plasma process| the effects of discharge power| CH(4)/CO(2) ratios in the feed| total flow rate| as well as the concentration of the balanced gas of Ar were studied. Ar in the feed has great effects on the conversion and the stability of the reaction. At 120 degrees C and atmospheric pressure| the conversion of CH(4) increased from 39% to 56% and that of CO(2) increased from 23% to 30% when the Ar content in the feed increased from 0% to 50%| whereas Ar showed little effect on the H(2)/CO ratios in the products. Moreover| the conversions of CH(4) and CO(2) remained unchanged within the testing hours in the presence of 50% of Ar| which was contrastive with those obtained without Ar in the feed. When Cu-Ni/Al(2)O(3) catalyst was filled in the discharge gap at 450 degrees C| the synergism between the catalyst and dielectric-barrier discharge (DBD) plasma was achieved. Conversions of CH(4) for plasma alone| plasma-catalysis and catalysis alone were 13%| 69% and 10%| respectively. Selectivities to CO and H(2) under the plasma-catalytic process were| respectively| 76% and 57%. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. 10991,2010,3,4,Cooling effect of water-holding pavements made of new materials on water and heat budgets in urban areas,People often suffer from the intense summer heat in Japan. This trend is increasing in urban areas because of the heat island effect and global warming. We evaluated the effect of pavements made of traditional and new materials on water and heat budgets. We expanded the NICE (NIES Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology) model to simulate the water and heat budgets for the various materials and to reproduce the cooling of water-holding pavement (consisting of porous asphalt and water-holding filler made of steel by-products based on a silica compound) by evaporation (NICE-URBAN); the results were compared with those from the simplified empirical model. NICE-URBAN simulated the cooling of water-holding pavement during the intense heat of summer in an urban area more correctly than the empirical model. Because the model estimates that the air temperature above the water-holding pavement is 1-2 degrees C lower than that above the lawn and 3-5 degrees C lower than that above the building rooftop| this material has a powerful positive cooling effect in combination with a lawn for a passive cooling effect. The simulation of NICE-URBAN showed that the surface temperature decrease in water-holding pavement is closely related to evaporation from the surface| the water volume of the pavement and the surface reflectance. The procedure used to integrate the model simulation with land use planning to effectively select and use ecosystem service sites is a very powerful approach to create thermally pleasing environments in a megalopolis. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11150,2010,3,4,Cooling performance of R510A in domestic water purifiers,Cooling performance of R510A is examined both numerically and experimentally in an effort to replace HFC134a in the refrigeration system of domestic water purifiers. Although the use of HFC134a is currently dominant| it is being phased out in Europe and most developed countries due to its high potential contribution to global warming. To solve this problem| cycle simulation and experimental measurements are conducted with a new refrigerant mixture of 88%RE170/12%R600a using actual domestic water purifiers. This mixture has been recently numbered and listed as R510A by ASHRAE. Test results show that| due to the small internal volume of the refrigeration system of the domestic water purifiers| system performance with R510A is greatly influenced by the amount of charge. With the optimum charge amount of 20 to 21 g| approximately 50% that of HFC134a| the energy consumption of R510A is 22.3% lower than that of HFC134a. The compressor discharge temperature of R510A is 3.7A degrees C lower than that of HFC134a at the optimum charge. Overall| R510A| a new| long term| and environmentally safe refrigerant| is a good alternative for HFC134a. Furthermore| it requires only minor changes in the refrigeration system of the domestic water purifiers. 356,2010,2,4,Coral-macroalgal phase shifts or reef resilience: links with diversity and functional roles of herbivorous fishes on the Great Barrier Reef,Changes from coral to macroalgal dominance following disturbances to corals symbolize the global degradation of coral reefs. The development of effective conservation measures depends on understanding the causes of such phase shifts. The prevailing view that coral-macroalgal phase shifts commonly occur due to insufficient grazing by fishes is based on correlation with overfishing and inferences from models and small-scale experiments rather than on long-term quantitative field studies of fish communities at affected and resilient sites. Consequently| the specific characteristics of herbivorous fish communities that most promote reef resilience under natural conditions are not known| though this information is critical for identifying vulnerable ecosystems. In this study| 11 years of field surveys recorded the development of the most persistent coral-macroalgal phase shift (> 7 years) yet observed on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). This shift followed extensive coral mortality caused by thermal stress (coral bleaching) and damaging storms. Comparisons with two similar reefs that suffered similar disturbances but recovered relatively rapidly demonstrated that the phase shift occurred despite high abundances of one herbivore functional group (scraping/excavating parrotfishes: Labridae). However| the shift was strongly associated with low fish herbivore diversity and low abundances of algal browsers (predominantly Siganidae) and grazers/detritivores (Acanthuridae)| suggesting that one or more of these factors underpin reef resilience and so deserve particular protection. Herbivorous fishes are not harvested on the GBR| and the phase shift was not enhanced by unusually high nutrient levels. This shows that unexploited populations of herbivorous fishes cannot ensure reef resilience even under benign conditions and suggests that reefs could lose resilience under relatively low fishing pressure. Predictions of more severe and widespread coral mortality due to global climate change emphasize the need for more effective identification and protection of ecosystem components that are critical for the prevention of coral reef phase shifts. 11269,2010,4,4,Correlations of clouds| cosmic rays and solar irradiation over the Earth,It is becoming apparent that the correlation of clouds at different altitudes with cosmic rays and solar activity is a matter of complexity. Specifically| evidence has been presented favouring particular regions of the Earth having positive or negative correlations of cloud cover with respect to cosmic rays and to solar irradiation. In this work we examine the evidence critically from several standpoints and conclude that the evidence for a negative correlation of low and a positive correlation for middle cloud cover with solar irradiance (as measured by UV) over a significant fraction of the Earth (20-30%) is good. No other claimed correlations are Supported. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11222,2010,2,4,Corridors| local food resources| and climatic conditions affect the utilization of the urban environment by the Black-headed Gull Larus ridibundus in winter,Black-headed Gulls Larus ridibundus (BHGs) in urban areas are a public nuisance. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the occurrence and abundance of the BHG foraging in urban areas in winter. The study was conducted in the city of Krakow (southern Poland) in four easily identifiable urban habitats: (1) areas with blocks of flats| (2) areas with congested housing| (3) detached single-family housing and (4) green areas. In each of these four habitats| 60 small (1-ha) plots were randomly chosen| and the bird's presence and abundance were noted. Results revealed that birds occurred most frequently and in the largest numbers in plots with blocks of flats and green areas as well as plots located close to rivers and water reservoirs. This highlights the importance of ecological corridors and stepping-stones for the presence of this species in the city. Food resources had no effect on the presence of the gulls but the abundance of the species was positively correlated with the number of litter-bins. This indicates that local food resources could be more important than large landfills for this species in urban habitats during winter. No human disturbance indices had an effect on the occurrence and abundance of the BHG. Higher temperature and lack of snow cover positively affected utilization of the urban habitats by the species that indicates that global warming may speed up synurbanization of the BHG. To control the number of BHGs in urban areas| we suggest preventing access to local food resources by placing litter bins with waste baskets that are inaccessible to animals. Also| the public should behave appropriately towards gulls and refrain from feeding them intentionally. 543,2010,4,4,Cosmic ray variations and space weather,In my report at the Scientific Session of the Russian Academy of Sciences on 25 November 2009 at the Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism| Ionosphere| and Radio Wave Propa- gation (IZMIRAN)| the following issues were considered:
1. Short history of cosmic ray (CR) variation investigations at the Research Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism (IZMIR) and at IZMIRAN: the role of N V Pushkov; E S Glokova's counter telescope; the government project of S N Vernov| N V Pushkov| and Yu G Shafer (1950±1951) on the development and production of a series of big ionization chambers| and involvement of students who graduated with nuclear specialities (but without the permission from the KGB to work at nuclear sites) into the organization of the first Soviet network of CR stations; development of the theory of CR meteorological effects and the method of coupling functions; the publication in 1957 of the world's first monograph on CR variations in Moscow and its English translation in the USA; the mistake made ten times by government officials regarding financing the new govern- ment project in 1960±1961 and the great development of the experimental basis for CR variations and all other areas of solar±terrestrial physics in the USSR; and the importance of the CR variation research for fundamental science and practical applications.
2. CR variations as an element of space weather: the influence of Earth's atmosphere on CR and the reverse influence of CR variations on processes in Earth's atmosphere and on global climate change; radiation hazards from galactic CRs| from solar CRs| and from energetic particles precipitated from radiation belts.
3. CR variations as a tool for space weather monitoring and forecasting: forecasting the part of global climate change caused by galactic CR intensity variations; forecasting the radiation hazard for people and electronics on aircraft| satellites| and spacecraft caused by variations of the galactic CR intensity; forecasting the radiation hazard from solar CR events by using an online one-minute ground neutron monitor network and satellite data; forecasting great mag- netic storm hazards by using an online one-hour CR intensity data from a ground-based worldwide network of neutron monitors and muon telescopes
Below| I consider the principles of the science of CR variations and the connection with space weather issues.
501,2010,2,4,Cotton Responses to Tillage and Rotation during the Turn of the Century Drought,Longer rain-free periods are predicted to occur more often in the southeastern United States as a result of global climate change. This nonirrigated field study was conducted from 1997 through 2002| which coincided with the 1998-2002 drought that affected most of the United States. The objective was to determine the effect of rotation and tillage on cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) productivity. Treatments in the study were rotation [cotton rotated with corn (Zea mays L.)| cotton planted after a rye (Secale cereale L.) winter cover crop| and continuous cotton with no cover crop] and tillage system (conventional tillage and conservation tillage). Two levels of aldicarb [2-methyl-2-(methylthio)propanal O-{(methylamino)carbonyl}oxime] (0 and 1.18 kg a.i. ha(-1)) were also included because of known soil management effects on thrips (Frankliniella sp.) and root-knot nematodes (Meloidigyne incognita). The predominant soil types were Bonneau loamy sand (loamy| siliceous| subactive| thermic Arenic Paleudult) and Norfolk loamy sand (fine-loamy| kaolinitic| thermic Typic Kandiudult). Rotation did not affect cotton yield in any year. Tillage did not affect cotton yield in 1997. Conservation tillage resulted in an average 25% yield increase in cotton lint yield over conventional tillage during the 5-yr drought. Tillage and aldicarb affected both thrips and root-knot nematodes| but lack of interaction among these factors for lint yield suggested that management of these pests was not the predominant cause for the cotton yield increase with conservation tillage. Conservation tillage for cotton production could be an important method to help mitigate the effects of climate change in the region if change occurs as predicted. 10582,2010,2,4,Counter-Gradient Variation in Respiratory Performance of Coral Reef Fishes at Elevated Temperatures,The response of species to global warming depends on how different populations are affected by increasing temperature throughout the species' geographic range. Local adaptation to thermal gradients could cause populations in different parts of the range to respond differently. In aquatic systems| keeping pace with increased oxygen demand is the key parameter affecting species' response to higher temperatures. Therefore| respiratory performance is expected to vary between populations at different latitudes because they experience different thermal environments. We tested for geographical variation in respiratory performance of tropical marine fishes by comparing thermal effects on resting and maximum rates of oxygen uptake for six species of coral reef fish at two locations on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR)| Australia. The two locations| Heron Island and Lizard Island| are separated by approximately 1200 km along a latitudinal gradient. We found strong counter-gradient variation in aerobic scope between locations in four species from two families (Pomacentridae and Apogonidae). High-latitude populations (Heron Island| southern GBR) performed significantly better than low-latitude populations (Lizard Island| northern GBR) at temperatures up to 5 degrees C above average summer surface-water temperature. The other two species showed no difference in aerobic scope between locations. Latitudinal variation in aerobic scope was primarily driven by up to 80% higher maximum rates of oxygen uptake in the higher latitude populations. Our findings suggest that compensatory mechanisms in high-latitude populations enhance their performance at extreme temperatures| and consequently| that high-latitude populations of reef fishes will be less impacted by ocean warming than will low latitude populations. 448,2010,2,4,Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China,Global climate change may impact grain production as atmospheric conditions and water supply change| particularly intensive cropping| such as double wheat-maize systems. The effects of climate change on grain production of a winter wheat-summer maize cropping system were investigated| corresponding to the temperature rising 2 and 5 degrees C| precipitation increasing and decreasing by 15% and 30%| and atmospheric CO(2) enriching to 500 and 700 ppmv. The study focused on two typical counties in the Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) Plain (covering most of the North China Plain)| Botou in the north and Huaiyuan in the south| considering irrigated and rain-fed conditions| respectively. Climate change scenarios| derived from available ensemble outputs from general circulation models and the historical trend from 1996 to 2004| were used as atmospheric forcing to a bio-geo-physically process-based dynamic crop model| Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP). VIP simulates full coupling between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance| and other energy and water transfer processes. The projected crop yields are significantly different from the baseline yield| with the minimum| mean (+/-standardized deviation| SD) and maximum changes being -46%| -10.3 +/- 20.3%| and 49%| respectively. The overall yield reduction of -18.5 +/- 22.8% for a 5 degrees C increase is significantly greater than -2.3 +/- 13.2% for a 2 degrees C increase. The negative effect of temperature rise on crop yield is partially mitigated by CO(2) fertilization. The response of a C3 crop (wheat) to the temperature rise is significantly more sensitive to CO(2) fertilization and less negative than the response of C4 (maize)| implying a challenge to the present double wheat-maize systems. Increased precipitation significantly mitigated the loss and increased the projected gain of crop yield. Conversely| decreased precipitation significantly exacerbated the loss and reduced the projected gain of crop yield. Irrigation helps to mitigate the decreased crop yield| but CO(2) enrichment blurs the role of irrigation. The crops in the wetter southern 3H Plain (Huaiyuan) are significantly more sensitive to climate change than crops in the drier north (Botou). Thus CO(2) fertilization effects might be greater under drier conditions. The study provides suggestions for climate change adaptation and sound water resources management in the 3H Plain. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11197,2010,4,4,Cross-sections and quantum yields for the atmospheric photolysis of the potent greenhouse gas nitrogen trifluoride,Although NF(3)| a trace gas of purely anthropogenic origin with a large global warming potential is accumulating in the Earth's atmosphere| little photochemical data exists from which to calculate its atmospheric removal rate. In this study| photodissociation quantum yields| Phi(1)| were derived following 193.3 nm laser photolysis of NF(3)| and quantitative conversion of the F-atom photoproducts to OH| which was detected by laser induced fluorescence. Values of Phi(1)(P| T) = (1.03 +/- 0.05) were determined at pressures between 28 and 100 mBar of He or N(2) and at either room temperature or 255 K. Absorption cross-sections| sigma| obtained between 184 and 226 nm were combined with the values of Phi(1)(P| T) to confirm a long (approximate to 700 year) photolysis lifetime for NF(3). No evidence for reaction of OH with NF(3) was found| indicating that this process makes little or no contribution to NF(3) removal from the atmosphere. These results underpin recent calculations of an NF(3) atmospheric lifetime tau approximate to 550 years| largely controlled by photolysis in the stratosphere. In the course of this work the rate coefficient k(2)(298 K) = (1.3 +/- 0.2) x 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) was obtained for the reaction F + H(2)O. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11168,2010,2,4,Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes,Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that| if addressed| would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions| and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap| (ii) achievability| (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats| and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish| reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However| there were also questions on fish demographics| physiology| behaviour and management| all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background| scientists scored questions from different topics similarly| suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research| providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities. 433,2010,2,4,Current distribution and predicted geographic expansion of the Rufous-backed Robin in Mexico: a fading endemism?,Aim The Rufous-backed Robin Turdus rufopalliatus is a bird endemic to the Pacific slope of Mexico. The species recently established populations in several localities in the Mexican Central Highlands. Based on available data| we modelled the range expansion of the Rufous-backed Robin in Mexico to understand the pattern| mechanisms and ecological and biogeographic implications of its expansion. Location Mexico. Methods We assessed the species' presence and habitat requirements at two spatial scales. At the site level| we evaluated the relationship between land use and species presence in an urban environment. At the country level| we generated a niche model. We then produced a dispersion model through the interpolation of points generated from information derived from the niche model| the location of records within and outside its native distribution range| the species' natural history| habitat requirements and its estimated dispersion rate (4.2 km year-1). Results The dispersion model predicted that the species will significantly increase its distribution range in Mexico in the coming decades. Its expansion would occur by a stepping-stone colonization of suitable habitat in areas of native vegetation and human settlements. The model predicted that the species should arrive on the Gulf slope of Mexico before 2025. Main conclusions Mechanisms that could explain the species' success in establishing viable populations outside its native distribution include its dispersion ability| competitive release| the urban heat island phenomenon and the trade of wild birds. The geographic range expansion of the Rufous-backed Robin will probably create new interactions with other species| particularly with close taxonomic and ecological relatives. The increase in the distribution range of the Rufous-backed Robin has resulted from direct and indirect human-induced dispersion; therefore| it cannot be considered a fading endemism. In part of its expanded range (to date the Mexican Central Highlands)| it should be considered an invasive alien species. 562,2010,2,4,Current selection for lower migratory activity will drive the evolution of residency in a migratory bird population,Global warming is impacting biodiversity by altering the distribution| abundance| and phenology of a wide range of animal and plant species. One of the best documented responses to recent climate change is alterations in the migratory behavior of birds| but the mechanisms underlying these phenotypic adjustments are largely unknown. This knowledge is still crucial to predict whether populations of migratory birds will adapt to a rapid increase in temperature. We monitored migratory behavior in a population of blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) to test for evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Using a common garden experiment in time and captive breeding we demonstrated a genetic reduction in migratory activity and evolutionary change in phenotypic plasticity of migration onset. An artificial selection experiment further revealed that residency will rapidly evolve in completely migratory bird populations if selection for shorter migration distance persists. Our findings suggest that current alterations of the environment are favoring birds wintering closer to the breeding grounds and that populations of migratory birds have strongly responded to these changes in selection. The reduction of migratory activity is probably an important evolutionary process in the adaptation of migratory birds to climate change| because it reduces migration costs and facilitates the rapid adjustment to the shifts in the timing of food availability during reproduction. 11359,2010,2,5,Data Analysis of Recent Warming Pattern in the Arctic,In this study| we investigate the mechanism of the arctic warming pattern in surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentrations over the last two decades in comparison with global warming since the 1970s. According to the analysis result| it is found that the patterns of SAT and sea ice before 1989 are mostly determined by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in winter. In contrast| arctic warming patterns after 1989 are characterized by the intensification of the Beaufort High and the reduced sea-ice concentrations in summer induced by the positive ice-albedo feedback. It is concluded that the arctic warming before 1989 especially in winter was explained by the positive trend of the AOI. Moreover the intensified Beaufort High and the drastic decrease of the sea ice concentrations in September after 1989 were associated with the recent negative trend of the AOI. Since the decadal variation of the AO is recognized as the natural variability of the global atmosphere| it is shown that both of decadal variabilities before and after 1989 in the Arctic can be mostly explained by the natural variability of the AO not by the external response due to the human activity. 464,2010,2,4,Decadal change in wetland-woodland boundaries during the late 20th century reflects climatic trends,Wetlands are important and restricted habitats for dependent biota and play vital roles in landscape function| hydrology and carbon sequestration. They are also likely to be one of the most sensitive components of the terrestrial biosphere to global climate change. An understanding of relationships between wetland persistence and climate is imperative for predicting| mitigating and adapting to the impacts of future climate change on wetland extent and function. We investigated whether mire wetlands had contracted| expanded or remained stable during 1960-2000. We chose a study area encompassing a regional climatic gradient in southeastern Australia| specifically to avoid confounding effects of water extraction on wetland hydrology and extent. We first characterized trends in climate by examining data from local weather stations| which showed a slight increase in precipitation and marked decline in pan evaporation over the relevant period. Remote sensing of vegetation boundaries showed a marked lateral expansion of mires during 1961-1998| and a corresponding contraction of woodland. The spatial patterns in vegetation change were consistent with the regional climatic gradient and showed a weaker co-relationship to fire history. Resource exploitation| wildland fires and autogenic mire development failed to explain the observed expansion of mire vegetation in the absence of climate change. We therefore conclude that the extent of mire wetlands is likely to be sensitive to variation in climatic moisture over decadal time scales. Late 20th-century trends in climatic moisture may be related primarily to reduced irradiance and/or reduced wind speeds. In the 21st century| however| net climatic moisture in this region is projected to decline. As mires are apparently sensitive to hydrological change| we anticipate lateral contraction of mire boundaries in coming decades as projected climatic drying eventuates. This raises concerns about the future hydrological functions| carbon storage capacity and unique biodiversity of these important ecosystems. 10912,2010,2,4,Decadal Shift in El Nino Influences on Indo-Western Pacific and East Asian Climate in the 1970s,El Nino's influence on the subtropical northwest (NW) Pacific climate increased after the climate regime shift of the 1970s. This is manifested in well-organized atmospheric anomalies of suppressed convection and a surface anticyclone during the summer (June August) of the El Nino decay year [RAW]| a season when equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have dissipated. In situ observations and ocean atmospheric reanalyses are used to investigate mechanisms for the interdecadal change. During JJA(1)| the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the NW Pacific is indirect| being mediated by SST conditions over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The results here show that interdecadal change in this influence is due to changes in the TIO response to ENSO. During the postregime shift epoch| the El Nino teleconnection excites downwelling Rossby waves in the south 110 by anticyclonic wind curls. These Rossby waves propagate slowly westward| causing persistent SST warming over the thermocline ridge in the southwest TIO. The ocean warming induces an antisymmetric wind pattern across the equator| and the anomalous northeasterlies cause the north Indian Ocean to warm through JJA(1) by reducing the southwesterly monsoon winds. The TIO warming excites a warm Kelvin wave in tropospheric temperature| resulting in robust atmospheric anomalies over the NW Pacific that include the surface anticyclone. During the preregime shift epoch| ENSO is significantly weaker in variance and decays earlier than during the recent epoch. Compared to the epoch after the mid-1970s| SST and wind anomalies over the TIO are similar during the developing and mature phases of ENSO but are very weak during the decay phase. Specifically| the southern TIO Rossby waves are weaker| so are the antisymmetric wind pattern and the North Indian Ocean warming during JJA(1). Without the anchor in the TIO warming| atmospheric anomalies over the NW Pacific fail to develop during JJA(1) prior to the mid-1970s. The relationship of the interdecadal change to global warming and implications for the East Asian summer monsoon are discussed. 592,2010,4,4,Decision support approach based on multiple objectives and resources for assessing the relocation plan of dangerous hillside aggregations,The overdevelopment of hillside areas| coupled with the effects of global climate change. has increased the likelihood of disasters with severe consequences| such as material damages and loss of lives. Thus| there is a great urgency to create relocation plans for dangerous hillside aggregations that are not suitable for human settlement. The government of Taipei City in Taiwan has not properly addressed the assessment needs for decisions involving priority and budget allocation for these relocation projects. This study proposes a hybrid approach combining the Delphi method| fuzzy-logic inference system (FLIS)| and the multi-objective programming (MOP) method to assist the city government in dealing with complex aggregation relocation decision problems. Twenty-four projects are tested by the proposed approach. Compared to the original relocation plan| results from this study reveal that the proposed approach is more objective and effective in relocation prioritization| project selection| budget utilization| and resource planning. These results will provide the city government with useful information for improving the relocation plan. thereby reducing the potential for human and material losses due to inadequate decision-making. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 414,2010,2,2,Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming,Every winter| the high-latitude oceans are struck by severe storms that are considerably smaller than the weather-dominating synoptic depressions(1). Accompanied by strong winds and heavy precipitation| these often explosively developing mesoscale cyclones-termed polar lows(1)-constitute a threat to offshore activities such as shipping or oil and gas exploitation. Yet owing to their small scale| polar lows are poorly represented in the observational and global reanalysis data(2) often used for climatological investigations of atmospheric features and cannot be assessed in coarse-resolution global simulations of possible future climates. Here we show that in a future anthropogenically warmed climate| the frequency of polar lows is projected to decline. We used a series of regional climate model simulations to downscale a set of global climate change scenarios(3) from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. In this process| we first simulated the formation of polar low systems in the North Atlantic and then counted the individual cases. A previous study(4) using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data(5) revealed that polar low frequency from 1948 to 2005 did not systematically change. Now| in projections for the end of the twenty-first century| we found a significantly lower number of polar lows and a northward shift of their mean genesis region in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. This change can be related to changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and mid-troposphere temperature; the latter is found to rise faster than the former so that the resulting stability is increased| hindering the formation or intensification of polar lows. Our results provide a rare example of a climate change effect in which a type of extreme weather is likely to decrease| rather than increase. 10983,2010,2,4,Decreasing resilience of kelp beds along a latitudinal temperature gradient: potential implications for a warmer future,Successful mitigation of negative effects of global warming will depend on understanding the link between physiological and ecological responses of key species. We show that while metabolic adjustment may assist Australasian kelp beds to persist and maintain abundance in warmer waters| it also reduces the physiological responsiveness of kelps to perturbation| and suppresses canopy recovery from disturbances by reducing the ecological performance of kelp recruits. This provides a warning not to rely solely on inventories of distribution and abundance to evaluate ecosystem function. The erosion of resilience is mediated by a shift in adult-juvenile interactions from competitive under cool to facilitative under warm conditions| supporting the prediction that positive interactions may become increasingly important in a warmer future. Kelp beds may remain intact but with a lower threshold for where additional impacts (e.g.| extreme storms or reduced water quality) will lead to persistent loss of habitat and ecological function. 358,2010,2,4,Decreasing trend and fluctuations in the mean ring density of Norway spruce through the twentieth century,Studies on wood density variations are necessary for estimating the forest carbon pool. Further| they can help predict the technological properties of wooden end-products. While there have been frequent reports on the relationships between wood density| cambial age| and ring width| there is little information about the historical trend in wood density for the last century| particularly in the context of global climate change. In this study| different sources of variations in mean ring density (site| tree| ring age| ring width| and calendar date) were studied using an original sampling design. A total of 105 Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.) trees were sampled in north-eastern France| from thirteen sites with trees of different ages growing at the same site and in similar conditions. X-ray densitometry measurements were performed on samples taken at breast height. The chronology of the mean ring density over the 20th century was estimated by using a statistical modelling approach based on linear mixed-effects models after accounting for the effect on the mean ring density introduced by different ring widths| cambial ages| sites| and trees. The mean ring density of Norway spruce was seen to decrease by about 18 kg m(-3) relative to the year 1900. The chronology showed no evolution between 1900 and 1950| a steep decline from 1950 to 1980 (reaching a maximum decrease of 30 kg m(-3))| followed by an increase from 1980 to 2000. The observed decrease was consistent with the results of previous works and supports the hypothesis that this could indicate a global trend and that this trend is independent of the wood structure. Moreover| high inter-annual density variations were found. In future studies| the influence of climate on the wood density and within-ring properties must be clarified to identify the anatomic causes for wood density variations. 10703,2010,5,4,Deglacial environments in eastern Prydz Bay| East Antarctica,A high-resolution continuous record of diatom census counts and diatom specific biomarkers in sediment core NBP0101-JPC24 allows assessment of oceanographic and environmental conditions in eastern Prydz Bay during the deglaciation (11 100-9000 cal yr BP) at decadal timescale. Our study improves previous snapshots investigations based on resin-embedded thin sections and presents a new proxy that compliments the diatom census counts. Our results suggest that the ice sheet retreat over the core site is dated at similar to 11 100 cal yr BP| setting the onset of local deglaciation and subsequent open marine conditions. The glacial retreat in Prydz Bay is due to global warming initiated at 18 cal ka BP and the regional development of the Prydz Bay cyclonic gyre. Our results further demonstrate that the deglaciation in eastern Prydz Bay can be separated in four phases: the first between 11 100 and 10 900 cal yr BP when the ice shelf was proximal and sea ice was almost perennial; the second and the third phases between 10 900-10 400 cal yr BP and 10 400-9900 cal yr BP| respectively| when the ice shelf retreated and seasonal sea ice cycle consequently developed promoting warmer water to pump into the bay within the gyre| which in turn forced the ice shelf recession and the yearly sea ice cycle establishment; and the fourth between 9900 and 9000 cal yr BP when Holocene condition were set with a recurrent seasonal sea ice cycle and a well established Prydz Bay gyre. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 550,2010,2,3,DEGRADATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF PEATLANDS IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA AND IN THE ISLANDS OF SUMATRA AND BORNEO SINCE 1990,In this study| we investigated the extent of peal land degradation and development in Peninsular Malaysia and in the islands of Sumatra and Borneo| in the western part of insular Southeast Asia| since 1990. Furthermore| carbon emissions caused by these land cover changes were estimated in order to evaluate their contribution to global climate change. High resolution Landsat (30 m spatial resolution) and Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT; 10-20 m) satellite images were used to derive information on land cover in 1990 and 2008. Analysis of land cover changes since 1990 revealed remarkable reduction and degradation of peatswamp forest ecosystems. In less than 20 years| 5.1 Mha of the total 15.5 Mha of peatland had been deforested (11.6 Mha -> 6.5 Mha; 75 per cent -> 42 per cent) and the great majority of the remaining forests had been selectively logged. Simultaneously| area covered by unmanaged secondary growth ecosystems had doubled to nearly a quarter of all peatlands and industrial plantations had expanded dramatically (0.3 -> Mha| 2.3 Mha; 2 per cent -> 15 per cent). It was conservatively estimated that these changes have caused minimum of 1.5 Gt carbon emissions into the atmosphere since 1990. Currently. peatlands of the study area emit at least 81 Mt of carbon (equivalent to 300 Mt of carbon dioxide) on annual basis clue to mere peat decomposition. Thereby| it was concluded that peal land degradation and development in insular Southeast Asia during the past two decades have not only put the existence of Southeast Asian peatswamp forest ecosystems in danger but it has also caused globally significant carbon emissions and created a constant source of carbon dioxide. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 11094,2010,2,4,DEHYDRATION-INDUCED EXPRESSION OF A 31-KDA DEHYDRIN IN POLYPODIUM POLYPODIOIDES (POLYPODIACEAE) MAY ENABLE LARGE| REVERSIBLE DEFORMATION OF CELL WALLS,Current and predicted climate changes caused by global warming compel greater understanding of the molecular mechanisms that plants use to survive drought. The desiccation-tolerant fern Polypodium polypodioides exhibits extensive cell wall folding when dried to less than 15% relative water content (RWC) and rapidly (within 24 h) rehydrates when exposed to water and high humidity. A 31-kDa putative dehydrin polypeptide expressed in partially and fully dry tissues detected via western blotting was present only during drying and rapidly dissipated (within 24 h) upon tissue rehydration. Immunostaining indicates the presence of dehydrin near the cell wall of partially and fully dried tissues. Atomic force microscopy of tracheal scalariform perforations indicates that dry vascular tissue does not undergo significant strain. Additionally| environmental scanning electron microscopy reveals differential hydrophilicity between the abaxial and adaxial leaf surfaces as well as large| reversible deformation. The ability to avoid cell wall damage in some desiccation-tolerant species may be partially attributed to cell wall localization of dehydrins enabling reversible| large cell-wall deformation. Thus| the de novo synthesis of dehydrin proteins and potential localization to the cell walls of these desiccation-tolerant species may play a role in avoiding mechanical failure during drought. 710,2010,2,4,Demographic effects of temperature-dependent sex determination: will tuatara survive global warming?,Global climate change is of particular concern for small and isolated populations of reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination because low genetic variation can limit adaptive response in pivotal temperatures| leading to skewed sex ratios. We explore the demographic consequences of skewed sex ratios on the viability of a tuatara population characterized by low genetic diversity. We studied the rare species of tuatara (Sphenodon guntheri) on the 4 ha North Brother Island in New Zealand over two nesting seasons and captured 477 individuals| with a 60% male bias in the adult population. Females first breed at 15 years and have extremely low rates of gravidity| producing clutches of three to eight eggs every 9 years. Simulations of the population using population viability analysis showed that the current population is expected to persist for at least 2000 years at hatchling sex ratios of up to 75% male| but populations with 85% male hatchlings are expected to become extinct within approximately 300 years (some eight generations). Incorporation of inbreeding depression increased the probability of extinction under male biased sex ratios| with no simulated populations surviving at hatchling sex ratios >75% male. Because recent models have predicted that climate change could lead to the production of all male S. guntheri hatchlings by 2085| we examined whether periodic intervention to produce mixed or female biased sex ratios would allow the population to survive if only males were produced in natural nests. We show that intervention every 2-3 years could buffer the effects of climate change on population sex ratios| but translocation to cooler environs might be more cost-effective. Climate change threatens tuatara populations because neither modified nesting behaviour nor adaptive response of the pivotal temperature can modify hatchling sex ratios fast enough in species with long generation intervals. 523,2010,2,4,DEMOGRAPHICS OF MORE THAN 12|000 INDIVIDUALS OF A KEYSTONE SPECIES IN THE NORTHERN SONORAN DESERT SINCE THE MID-1800S,We studied a cohort-based| long-lived species to determine whether favorable periods that promote regeneration are driven by local| regional| or global-scale factors. Limited demographic data exist for the keystone species Carnegiea gigantea over its range. We obtained a data set collected for 12|232 plants over an area of more than 11 km(2) at a restricted military zone| located far from any other studied population. We developed the establishment pattern for the species over the last 200 yr and compared population growth trends with those for other sites and with global-scale volcanism| which has been previously linked to the regeneration of the species. This population was significantly related to the two closer sites| suggesting a regional influence in regeneration and cohort establishment. Other eastern sites like ours also exhibited a regeneration peak in the 1920s. This population was not significantly related to volcanic eruptions| as has been documented elsewhere| though this may be due to subsequent mortality at the site| which would have effectively erased the record of establishment in past periods. Unlike past work| our study goes beyond a single population. We synthesized data from other known populations in order to produce| for the first time| a coherent picture of the patterns of regeneration over much of the species' range. Large-scale climatic (e. g.| unusually rainy periods) and geologic (global-scale volcanism) events promote the establishment of cohorts during the same time periods historically| though to differing extents in different populations: hot| western populations have particularly large cohorts in response to volcanism| while more eastern sites may have observable cohorts during known wetter periods. Thus| these different large-scale phenomena appear to be of varying significance in a population on the basis of the population's location and associated environment. This provides insight into global climate change impacts on the species| whose keystone status will ultimately affect the success of and changes in the entire biome. 10471,2010,4,3,Denitrification at pH 4 by a soil-derived Rhodanobacter-dominated community,P>Soil denitrification is a major source of nitrous oxide emission that causes ozone depletion and global warming. Low soil pH influences the relative amount of N(2)O produced and consumed by denitrification. Furthermore| denitrification is strongly inhibited in pure cultures of denitrifying microorganisms below pH 5. Soils| however| have been shown to denitrify at pH values as low as pH 3. Here we used a continuous bioreactor to investigate the possibility of significant denitrification at low pH under controlled conditions with soil microorganisms and naturally available electron donors. Significant NO(3)- and N(2)O reduction were observed for 3 months without the addition of any external electron donor. Batch incubations with the enriched biomass showed that low pH as well as low electron donor availability promoted the relative abundance of N(2)O as denitrification end-product. Molecular analysis of the enriched biomass revealed that a Rhodanobacter-like bacterium dominated the community in 16S rRNA gene libraries as well as in FISH microscopy during the highest denitrification activity in the reactor. We conclude that denitrification at pH 4 with natural electron donors is possible and that a Rhodanobacter species may be one of the microorganisms involved in acidic denitrification in soils. 11010,2010,2,4,Dependence of the precipitation intensity in mesoscale convective systems to temperature lapse rate,The dependence of the structure and intensity of precipitation generated within squall lines to environmental temperature lapse rate is investigated by the use of a large set of numerical experiments under idealized model configurations. The lapse rate in a convectively unstable layer is used for the present analysis. The mean precipitation intensity during the simulated period generally increases with the increase in lapse rate| while the maximum precipitation intensity increases with the decrease in lapse rate. The precipitation mean is dependent on the intensity of cold pool resulting from organized convective clouds. In contrast| the precipitation maxima is regulated by relative humidity within the tropospheric lower layer. In an environment with higher lapse rate| a larger amount of CAPE is distributed in a deeper layer of the lower troposphere| which is beneficial for the development and intensification of convection and precipitation. Lapse rate in the troposphere is useful in comparing the characteristics of precipitation produced by mesoscale convective systems that occur in various climate regions of the world and also produced in a future climate under global warming. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10966,2010,2,2,Depth of Convection and the Weakening of Tropical Circulation in Global Warming,Anthropogenic forcings| such as greenhouse gases and aerosols| are starting to show their influence on the climate| as evidenced by a global warming trend observed in the past century. The weakening of tropical circulation| a consequence of global warming| has also been found in observations and in twenty-first-century climate model simulations. It is a common belief that this weakening of tropical circulation is associated with the fact that global-mean precipitation increases more slowly than water vapor. Here| a new mechanism is proposed for this robust change| which is determined by atmospheric stability associated with the depth of convection. Convection tends to extend higher in a warmer climate because of an uplifting of the tropopause. The higher the convection| the more stable the atmosphere. This leads to a weakening of tropical circulation. 11100,2010,2,4,Desertification in Pakistan: Causes| impacts and management,The natural resource base of land| water and vegetation in arid and semi arid areas is highly fragile and extremely vulnerable to degradation. Increasing population along with the demand for more food| fodder and fuelwood has given rise to a chain of interrelated economic| social and environmental issues associated with the land degradation. Desertification is essentially a result of soil degradation. A variety of natural and human factors are contributing to desertification| including drought| overgrazing| over exploitation of land and water resources| over cultivation of marginal lands| deforestation| soil erosion| water logging and salinity and the use of inappropriate agricultural technologies. The consequences of this are: abandoned croplands| affected by waterlogging and salinity; abandoned villages| traditional irrigation systems and croplands desertified by deteriorated groundwater aquifers or lowering of the water table; siltation of rivers| irrigation systems and reservoirs; landslides in hilly areas. The desertification leads to agricultural productivity losses and enhance poverty. It also causes significant reductions in carbon storage in soils| contributing to global warming| and loss of biodiversity. Various approaches are being applied to combat the menace of desertification. Introduction of rapid growing exotic species of trees and grasses for stabilization of shifting sand dunes; creation of microclimates through shelterbelt plantation have proved highly successful towards the control of desertification. Sustainable land management (SLM)| soil and water conservation| afforestation and rehabilitation of degraded land| repetitive high resolution satellite images| delineation and mapping of affected areas| remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) arc likely to be suitable strategies for combating desertification in Pakistan. The efforts already underway to combat desertification need to be strengthened and integrated through a nationally supported| coordinated and monitored system. 11451,2010,2,4,Design Code Calibration of Offshore Platform Against Typhoon/Hurricane Attacks,Hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in the largest number of platforms destroyed and damaged in the history of Gulf of Mexico operations With the trend of global warming| sea level rising and the frequency and intensity of typhoon increase How to determine a reasonable deck elevation against the largest hurricane waves has become a key issue in offshore platforms design and construction for the unification of economy and safety In this paper| the multivariate compound extreme value distribution (MCEVD) model is used to predict the deck elevation with different combination of tide| surge height| and crest height Compared with practice recommended by American Petroleum Institute (API)| the prediction by MCEVD has probabilistic meaning and universality 11001,2010,3,4,Design strategies to minimize the radiative efficiency of global warming molecules,A strategy is devised to screen molecules based on their radiative efficiency. The methodology should be useful as one additional constraint when determining the best molecule to use for an industrial application. The strategy is based on the results of a recent study where we examined molecular properties of global warming molecules using ab initio electronic structure methods to determine which fundamental molecular properties are important in assessing the radiative efficiency of a molecule. Six classes of perfluorinated compounds are investigated. For similar numbers of fluorine atoms| their absorption of radiation in the IR window decreases according to perfluoroethers > perfluorothioethers approximate to sulfur/carbon compounds > perfluorocarbons > perfluoroolefins > carbon/nitrogen compounds. Perfluoroethers and hydrofluorethers are shown to possess a large absorption in the IR window due to (i) the C-O bonds are very polar| (ii) the C-O stretches fall within the IR window and have large IR intensity due to their polarity| and (iii) the IR intensity for C-F stretches in which the fluorine atom is bonded to the carbon that is bonded to the oxygen atom is enhanced due to a larger C-F bond polarity. Lengthening the carbon chain leads to a larger overall absorption in the IR window| though the IR intensity per bond is smaller. Finally| for a class of partially fluorinated compounds with a set number of electronegative atoms| the overall absorption in the IR window can vary significantly| as much as a factor of 2| depending on how the fluorine atoms are distributed within the molecule. 664,2010,2,3,Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity,Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated| can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL| IPSL and NCAR). We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus| recent observed changes in chlorophyll| primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead| our analyses suggest that a time series of similar to 40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions| notably equatorial regions| detection times are predicted to be shorter (similar to 20-30 years). Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001-2100 suggests that| on average| the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until similar to 2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than| or similar to| the global warming trend| a consistent| decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected. 10942,2010,2,4,Detection of Climate-Sensitive Zones and Identification of Climate Change Indicators: A Case Study from the Bavarian Forest National Park,We determined the climate-sensitive zones along an altitudinal gradient in a low mountain range forest| the Bavarian Forest National Park in south-eastern Germany| and studied which vascular plant species are likely to respond to climate change. Plants were recorded on 273 plots along four straight transects. The composition of the plant species and their environmental correlates were detected using unconstrained correspondence analysis (DCA) with post-hoc correlation of axes against site variables. We tested the effect of site variables on species composition using maximally selected rank statistics| which allow the simultaneous identification of a threshold and assessment of its significance. Species turnover within the vascular plant community along the altitudinal gradient was assessed using the same method on the basis of the DCA sample scores. Using geostatistical models of local temperature and Bayesian methods with binomial errors that account for spatial structure| we tested the influence of temperature on selected single vascular plant species and assessed the suitability of the species as climate change indicators. Temperature was the most important factor explaining the variability in vascular plant community composition| which changed discretely along the altitudinal gradient| with a climate-sensitive zone found between 1|100 and 1|200 m a.s.l. The distribution of ten species with their lower or upper altitudinal limit in this zone was significantly driven by temperature. To track vegetation responses to climate change effectively| we suggest a three-level monitoring program| flexible with regard to the volume of required sampling effort. 10561,2010,3,3,Detection of Greenhouse Gas Precursors from Diesel Engines Using Electrochemical and Photoacoustic Sensors,Atmospheric pollution is one of the worst threats to modern society. The consequences derived from different forms of atmospheric pollution vary from the local to the global scale| with deep impacts on climate| environment and human health. Several gaseous pollutants| even when present in trace concentrations| play a fundamental role in important processes that occur in atmosphere. Phenomena such as global warming| photochemical smog formation| acid rain and the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer are strongly related to the increased concentration of certain gaseous species in the atmosphere. The transport sector significantly produces atmospheric pollution| mainly when diesel oil is used as fuel. Therefore| new methodologies based on selective and sensitive gas detection schemes must be developed in order to detect and monitor pollutant gases from this source. In this work| CO(2) Laser Photoacoustic Spectroscopy was used to evaluate ethylene emissions and electrochemical analyzers were used to evaluate the emissions of CO| NO(x) and SO(2) from the exhaust of diesel powered vehicles (rural diesel with 5% of biodiesel| in this paper called only diesel) at different engine rotation speeds. Concentrations in the range 6 to 45 ppmV for ethylene| 109 to 1|231 ppmV for carbon monoxide| 75 to 868 ppmV for nitrogen oxides and 3 to 354 ppmV for sulfur dioxide were obtained. The results indicate that the detection techniques used were sufficiently selective and sensitive to detect the gaseous species mentioned above in the ppmV range. 700,2010,2,4,Determinants of ground-dwelling spider assemblages at a regional scale in the Yukon Territory| Canada,Arctic fauna is undergoing significant alteration in response to global climate change| yet we know little regarding the factors that determine species assemblages at northern latitudes. We used a latitudinal transect to assess environmental determinants of ground-dwelling spider assemblages across the boreal forest-tundra transition at a regional scale. Using multivariate techniques| we tested 3 complementary hypotheses regarding the factors that best explain patterns of assemblage structure. We predicted that spider assemblages would respond most strongly to vegetation composition and structure and that climate and spatial variables would explain less of the variation in the data. We sampled ground dwelling spiders using pitfall traps placed at 36 sites along the latitudinal transect. We constructed 3 separate matrices of spatial| climate| and vegetation variables| with each matrix representing a hypothesis. We used redundancy analysis with variation partitioning to determine which matrix of environmental variables best explained patterns in a matrix of spider abundances. We then used a separate redundancy analysis to determine which environmental variables best explained the variation in measures of species richness and activity density. We collected a total of 2890 individual spiders representing 103 species| 58 genera| and 13 families. Our analysis supports the hypothesis that vegetation composition and its related structure best explain patterns in northern spider assemblages at a regional scale. 11232,2010,2,4,Determinants of nocturnal Lepidopteran diversity and community structure in a conifer-dominated forest,Prediction of community response of fauna to anthropogenic or environmental disturbance requires knowledge of faunal distribution and abundance as well as an understanding of the mechanisms underlying community organization. We investigated linkages between Lepidoptera| one of the most influential insect taxa in forested ecosystems| and vegetation in riparian areas of conifer-dominated forests of western Oregon| USA. Using model selection techniques| we found that canopy cover explained variability in patterns of moth species dominance and diversity better than all other factors investigated| whereas elevation best explained patterns of moth species richness. Using canonical correspondence analysis| we determined that gradients in shrub species richness| elevation| and understory species richness accounted for the most variation in regional moth community structure. Results suggest that reductions of riparian forest canopy are likely to have the greatest impact on the variety and relative abundance of moths. Due to the relative rarity and patchy distribution of the majority of individual species| we predict that lower intensity vegetation manipulations distributed across larger spatial scales are likely to be less damaging to regional moth biodiversity than more intensive alterations at smaller scales. Finally| if global warming trends continue| upward elevational shifts in moth species distributions will make forested regions at higher elevation worthy of concerted protection. 10913,2010,4,4,Determination of methane and carbon dioxide fluxes during the rice maturity period in Taiwan by combining profile and eddy covariance measurements,A field campaign was undertaken over a rice paddy in Central Taiwan to investigate the flux of CH(4) through the flux-gradient method. During the campaign period| the average observed concentrations of CH(4) during the campaign period at the lower height (22.2 m above ground level| agl) and upper height (27.5 m agl) were around 2.04 ppm and 2.01 ppm| respectively. It was noticed that the profile concentration of CH(4) was lower during day time when compared to night time. However| the flux of CH(4) was observed to be higher during the day time than during night hours. In order to understand the relationship between the influences of meteorological variables on the flux of CH(4)| six meteorological variables were studied. It was observed that soil heat flux has a linear positive correlation with the flux of CH(4). During the study period| the maturity stage of rice paddy| the rice paddy ecosystem was behaving as sources of CH(4) and CO(2). Over a 100-year time frame| the global warming potential (GWP) fluxes of CH(4) and CO(2) observed at this study site were 0.16 and 0.71 mu mol CO(2) equivalents m(-2) s(-1)| respectively. The total GWP flux (CH(4) and CO(2)) was 0.86 mu mol CO(2) equivalents m(-2) s(-1) in which CH(4) and CO(2) contribute 18% and 82%| respectively. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10616,2010,4,4,Determining Confidence Intervals in Analyzing Climatic Series,In the context of the problem of global warming| the question of how much the observed increase in the mean air temperature over the last decades is likely due only to natural variability is studied. It is assumed that an observed temperature-data series of length N is a segment of a stationary random sequence with a spectrum known on an interval that does not include the lowest frequencies. The variance sigma(2)(N) of the sample mean m* and the standard deviation sigma(N)| which determines the width of the confidence interval of m*| are calculated for different continuations of the spectrum to the low-frequency region. For a continuation of the spectrum that boundlessly increases| as does omega(-2 alpha) (0 < alpha < 1/2) when the frequency omega tends to zero (red-noise spectrum)| it is shown that| the closer the parameter alpha is to 1/2| the more slowly sigma(N) tends to zero at N -> a. Using an empirical spectrum of a global mean annual temperature series as an example| it is shown that the standard deviation significantly depends on the form of the spectrum in the lowest frequency region. An attempt has been made to assess the measure of standard-deviation uncertainty due to a lack of exact information on the spectrum in the low-frequency region. Important series characteristics-the equivalent number of independent observations N (eq)(N) and the time scale of correlation T (1)(N) which are determined through the variance sigma(2)(N) of m*-also depend on the form of the spectrum in the low-frequency region. For the red-noise spectrum| N (eq)(N) increases with an increase in N proportionally to N (1-2 alpha) (but not proportionally to N as in the case of bounded spectrum); the correlation scale T (1)(N) is no longer constant (as in the case of bounded spectrum) and increases with an increase in N proportionally to N (2 alpha). 11210,2010,2,4,Detrimental effect of temperature increase on the fitness of an amphibian (Lissotriton helveticus),Increases of global temperatures have resulted in measurable shifts in the distribution| phenology and survival of some plant and animal species. However| the mechanisms showing links between global warming and biodiversity declines remain unclear. The aim of this study was to examine whether a key parameter of fitness| i.e. offspring number| could be affected by a temperature increase. To this end| we compared egg-laying traits at naturally occurring temperatures (14 degrees C| 18 degrees C and 22 degrees C) in palmate newts| Lissotriton helveticus. Our study suggests that water temperature increase has a negative effect on the fecundity of female newts. Females lay half as many eggs at high temperatures as they do at low temperatures| which results in a lower number of hatchlings. This study shows that global warming would affect amphibian populations. It complements other studies in pointing out that changes in phenology may not be driven only by warmer earlier temperatures but also by counter-selection during late-breeding| particularly in long-term breeders such as newts. More experimental studies should be carried out to understand the complex consequences of global warming and the proximate mechanisms of amphibian decline. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved. 11107,2010,2,4,Development of a Loop-mediated Isothermal Amplification (LAMP) Assay for Rapid Diagnosis of Babesia canis infections,P>Vector-borne diseases are rising in interest due to global warming| which is believed to impact on the distribution of vectors into new areas thus influencing the occurrence and epidemiology of vector-borne pathogens. Babesia canis belongs to the Piroplasmidae and there are three described subspecies| namely B. canis canis| B. canis rossi and B. canis vogeli. They are each transmitted by a different tick-species| Dermacentor reticulatus| Haemaphysalis leachi and Rhipicephalus sanguineus| respectively. There are also differences in the geographical distribution and pathogenicity to dogs of each subspecies. In this study| we aimed to establish a rapid and easy to perform DNA-based test using loop-mediated isothermal amplification to detect all three Babesia canis subspecies in one assay. 11421,2010,3,3,Development of a Runoff Model for Arid Land Afforestation in Western Australia,As a countermeasure against global warming| large scale afforestation of arid land has been performed as a means to fix atmospheric CO(2) into plants. Arid land and semi-arid land account for about one third of all land area and are characterized by extremely low productivity| which is mainly caused by low precipitation. In these areas| a considerable amount of rainwater is lost due to runoff and evaporation| but runoff water is available for tree growth when it is collected and allowed to penetrate into the deep root zone. Therefore| the selection of afforestation area suitable for effective use of rainfall/runoff water for tree growth is required for arid land afforestation. In this study| we constructed an original runoff model to represent water movement in a watershed area of several km by several km in an arid area of Western Australia. For numerical calculation with ten meter grids| the maximum required time difference value was determined to give negligibly small calculation errors. Suitable fitting parameters in our model were determined by comparing the numerical results with actual data of runoff behavior after rainfall. As a result| the water movement in the flow area could be expressed by our model calculation. 691,2010,4,3,Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models,Recent studies have indicated that the uncertainty in the global carbon cycle may have a significant impact on the climate. Since state of the art models are too computationally expensive for it to be possible to explore their parametric uncertainty in anything approaching a comprehensive fashion| we have developed a simplified system for investigating this problem. By combining the strong points of general circulation models (GCMs)| which contain detailed and complex processes| and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs)| which are quick and capable of large ensembles| we have developed a loosely coupled model (LCM) which can represent the outputs of a GCM-based Earth system model| using much smaller computational resources. We address the problem of relatively poor representation of precipitation within our EMIC| which prevents us from directly coupling it to a vegetation model| by coupling it to a precomputed transient simulation using a full GCM. The LCM consists of three components: an EMIC (MIROC-lite) which consists of a 2-D energy balance atmosphere coupled to a low resolution 3-D GCM ocean (COCO) including an ocean carbon cycle (an NPZD-type marine ecosystem model); a state of the art vegetation model (Sim-CYCLE); and a database of daily temperature| precipitation| and other necessary climatic fields to drive Sim-CYCLE from a precomputed transient simulation from a state of the art AOGCM. The transient warming of the climate system is calculated from MIROC-lite| with the global temperature anomaly used to select the most appropriate annual climatic field from the pre-computed AOGCM simulation which| in this case| is a 1% pa increasing CO(2) concentration scenario. By adjusting the effective climate sensitivity (equivalent to the equilibrium climate sensitivity for an energy balance model) of MIROC-lite| the transient warming of the LCM could be adjusted to closely follow the low sensitivity (with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 4.0K) version of MIROC3.2. By tuning of the physical and biogeochemical parameters it was possible to reasonably reproduce the bulk physical and biogeochemical properties of previously published CO(2) stabilisation scenarios for that model. As an example of an application of the LCM| the behavior of the high sensitivity version of MIROC3.2 (with a 6.3 K equilibrium climate sensitivity) is also demonstrated. Given the highly adjustable nature of the model| we believe that the LCM should be a very useful tool for studying uncertainty in global climate change| and we have named the model| JUMP-LCM| after the name of our research group (Japan Uncertainty Modelling Project). 363,2010,4,4,Development of environmental monitoring satellite systems in China,With the increase in global environmental problems| the necessity and urgency of remote sensing technology being applied to environmental monitoring has been widely recognized around the world. China has launched the environment and disaster monitoring and forecasting small satellite constellation HJ-1A/B and the FY3 atmosphere and environmental satellite| but they still cannot fully satisfy requirements for environmental monitoring. This paper summarizes the current status of satellite environmental monitoring in China and the existing problems of inadequate load design and low data utilization efficiency| and discusses the demand for environmental monitoring satellites. Based on the development of foreign satellite systems for environmental monitoring| the future development and key tasks of the environmental monitoring satellite system in China is discussed| as are some related initiatives. 11345,2010,3,3,Development of Mn-type Lithium-Ion Batteries and Study for a Pure Electric Buses Applications,From the viewpoint of reducing carbon dioxide emissions| the practical use of electric buses has been expected to be one of the effective solutions to global warming. Even though lithium-ion batteries using lithium manganese oxide have been studied for use in electric vehicles| it is still necessary to improve their characteristics such as energy density| maximum operating temperature and cycle performance. Manganese oxide lithium-ion batteries for an electric bus developed by internal-combustion spray pyrolysis methods and its performance in an actual road test have been studied. The performance of the electric bus was satisfactory; the bus could run for 74 km on a full charge. 506,2010,4,4,Development of the Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI) and short-term assessment with multi-scale remote sensing technologies,Global climate change will influence environmental conditions including temperature| surface radiation| soil moisture| and sea level| and it will also significantly impact regional-scale hydrologic processes such as evapotranspiration (ET)| precipitation| runoff| and snowmelt. The quantity and quality of water available for drinking and other domestic usage is also likely to be affected by changes in these processes. Consequently| it is necessary to assess and reflect upon the challenges ahead for water infrastructure and the general public in metropolitan regions. One approach to the problem is to use index-based assessment| forecasting and planning. The drought indices previously developed were not developed for domestic water supplies| and thus are insufficient for the purpose of such an assessment. This paper aims to propose and develop a "Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI)" to assess the status of both the quantity and quality of available potable water sources diverted from the hydrologic cycle in a metropolitan region. In this approach| the accessible water may be expressed as volume per month or week (i.e.| m(3)/month or m(3)/week) relative to a prescribed historical record| and such a trend analysis may result in final MWAI values ranging from 1 to +1 for regional water management decision making. The MWAI computation uses data and information from both historical point measurements and spatial remote-sensing based monitoring. Variables such as precipitation| river discharge| and water quality changes at drinking water plant intakes at specific locations are past "point" measurements in MWAI calculations. On the other hand| remote sensing provides information on both spatial and temporal distributions of key variables. Examples of remote-sensing images and sensor network technologies are in-situ sensor networks| ground-based radar| air-borne aircraft| and even space-borne satellites. A case study in Tampa Bay| Florida is described to demonstrate the short-term assessment of the MWAI concept at a practical level. It is anticipated that such a forecasting methodology may be extended for middle-term and long-term water supply assessment. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10694,2010,2,3,Diagnosing Australia-Asian monsoon onset/retreat using large-scale wind and moisture indices,Using large-scale variables| in this study we have developed a method for defining monsoon onset/retreat in the Australia-Asian region and used this method to study monsoon activities simulated by global climate models. For this purpose| the method needs to capture fundamental characteristics of monsoon rainfall and circulation seasonal variations and at the same time it can be reasonably simulated by current climate models. We develop the method by using both atmospheric precipitable water and wind conditions in our definition and compared our results using 44-year ERA-40 reanalysis data with some published results in the region. Our results offer similar features to several observational studies| including features in Australia-Asian summer monsoon temporal and spatial evolutions and their interannual variations. Results further show that the observed significant increase in summer rainfall in northwest Australia corresponds to earlier onset and much longer duration of its summer monsoon| with its duration significantly increased. Prolonged summer monsoon duration is also seen in central-east China where upward rainfall trend is observed. Furthermore| the Australian summer monsoon appears to be more affected by ENSO than the Asian monsoon| with delayed onsets and shortened durations during El Nino years. Finally| by analyzing results from an IPCC AR4 model| we have shown that using the two large-scale variables simulated by climate models| it is possible to conduct some detailed studies on monsoon activities in current and future climate. Results from this particular model suggest that global warming could potentially modify some of the monsoon characteristics| including earlier onset in most of the region but different features for changes in duration. In the Australian region| it also displays further southward penetration of its summer monsoon. 10577,2010,5,3,Did a Katian large igneous province trigger the Late Ordovician glaciation? A hypothesis tested with a carbon cycle model,The Ordovician is known as a period with high temperatures and high sea levels and a cooling event at the end of the period| leading to the Hirnantian glaciation and the first of the 'big five' mass extinctions of marine life. The cause of this cooling event remains unclear. Several authors correlate it with a drop in atmospheric pCO(2) to a threshold permitting the ice accumulation on the Gondwana supercontinent However| what are the reasons of the atmospheric pCO(2) decrease? Here| we follow the hypothesis initiated by Barnes (2004) that an Ordovician superplume event occurred during the Middle to Late Ordovician. Such an event would not only have a large impact on the Ordovician biodiversification (Barnes| 2004) but it would also be responsible for the climatic upheaval during the Late Ordovician by the emplacement of a low latitudinal continental basaltic province that had an impact on the atmospheric pCO(2). There is no direct evidence of a superplume event or of basaltic traps and the present study is therefore a hypothetical modelling approach where we demonstrate with a numerical box model| including carbon| alkalinity and phosphorus cycles coupled with a 1D climate model (energy balance model-EBM) (Francois and Walker|1992)| that such a scenario allows to explain both the mid-Ashgill (Katian) global warming event| known as the Boda Event (Fortey and Cocks| 2005)| and the subsequent Late Ordovician (Hirnantian) glaciation. Because silicate weathering is enhanced upon warm and wet climate| we try to constrain the size and the latitudinal emplacement of the basaltic province leading to a sufficient consumption of atmospheric pCO(2) to the threshold proposed by Herrmann et al (2004 a| b) to initiate a glaciation on Gondwana Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B V All rights reserved 11284,2010,2,4,Diet differences among age classes of Arctic seals: evidence from stable isotope and mercury biomarkers,A basic understanding of current food web dynamics and baseline data from which to measure future change is necessary to understand species re-distribution and altered competition for food with climate change. We use mercury (Hg) and carbon (delta(13)C) and nitrogen (delta(15)N) stable isotope ratios as biomarkers to understand species diet differences and age class differences among ringed (Phoca hispida)| bearded (Erignathus barbatus)| and harbour (P. vitulina) seals in a subarctic marine ecosystem. Adult bearded seals had significantly lower delta(15)N and muscle Hg than bearded seal pups| whereas the opposite was observed in ringed seals where pups had lower delta(15)N than adults| suggesting age specific foraging differences in trophic food level for both species. For harbour seals| delta(15)N did not differ significantly among ages while Hg and delta(13)C did. The delta(13)C in muscle supports that bearded seals in this study are benthic feeders and are part of a separate food web from ringed seals and harbour seals. Harbour seals had the highest levels of mercury and delta(15)N| indicating they feed at a higher trophic level relative to the other two seal species. Carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios and Hg levels illustrate how resources are partitioned among three seal species and offer evidence for separation based on life stages within species. 11520,2010,4,4,Different characteristics of char and soot in the atmosphere and their ratio as an indicator for source identification in Xi'an| China,Numerous definitions and analytical techniques for elemental (or black) carbon (EC) have been published in the scientific literature| but still no generally accepted interdisciplinary definition exists. EC is not a single chemical compound| but is mainly composed of two parts of carbon contents: combustion residues from pyrolysis and combustion emissions formed via gas-to-particle conversion. Accordingly EC is subdivided into two classes: char and soot. Char is defined as carbonaceous materials obtained by heating organic substances and formed directly from pyrolysis| or as an impure form of graphitic carbon obtained as a residue when carbonaceous material is partially burned or heated with limited access of air. Soot is defined as only those carbon particles that form at high temperature via gas-phase processes. Since the different classes of EC have different chemical and physical properties| their optical light-absorbing properties differ| so that it is essential to differentiate them in the environment. The thermal optical reflectance (TOR) method was used to differentiate between char-EC and soot-EC according to its stepwise thermal evolutional oxidation of different carbon fractions under different temperatures and atmosphere. Char-EC and soot-EC are operationally defined as EC1-OP and EC2+EC3 (EC1| EC2 and EC3 corresponding to carbon fractions evolved at 550| 700 and 800 degrees C in a 98% He/2% O(2) atmosphere| respectively)| respectively. One year of observations of the daily and seasonal variations of carbonaceous particles were conducted in Xi'an| China in 2004 to demonstrate the different characteristics of char and soot in the atmosphere. Total carbon (TC)| organic carbon (OC)| EC and char-EC showed similar seasonal trends| with high concentrations in winter and low concentrations in summer| while soot-EC revealed relatively small seasonal variations| with maximum concentration (1.85 +/- 0.72 mu g m(-3)) in spring and minimum concentration (1.15 +/- 0.47 mu g m(-3)) in summer. The strong correlation between EC and char-EC (R(2) = 0.99) and poor correlation between EC and soot-EC (R(2) = 0.31) indicate that previously reported total EC in the literature reflected the distribution characteristics of char only| while overlooking that of soot. However| soot exhibits stronger light-absorbing characteristics than char| and merits greater focus in climate research. The small seasonal variation of soot-EC indicates that soot may be the background fraction in total EC| and is likely to have an even longer lifetime in the atmosphere than previously estimated for total EC| which suggests that soot may has a greater contribution to global warming. While both char-EC/soot-EC and primary OC/EC ratios vary with emission sources| only OC/EC ratio is affected by SOA. Thus char-EC/soot-EC may be a more effective indicator than OC/EC in source identification of carbonaceous aerosol. Comparison of seasonal variations of OC/EC and char-EC/soot-EC ratios in Xi'an confirms this point. However| wet scavenging by snow and rain was more effective for char than for soot and influenced the char-EC/soot-EC ratio| and this factor should be considered in source identification as well. 355,2010,2,4,Differential effects of warming and nutrient loading on the timing and size of the spring zooplankton peak: an experimental approach with hypertrophic freshwater mesocosms,In shallow lakes| environmental warming and nutrient loading are important influences on the likelihood of a shift between clear and turbid ecosystem states. With temperatures and nutrient runoff predicted to increase within the next decades| climate change poses a threat to lake communities. However| current predictions on the effect of these environmental factors on the abundance and timing of peak zooplankton numbers are based on correlations rather than on experimental isolation of thermal from other confounding effects. We present results of warming (4 degrees C above ambient) and increased nutrient loading on plankton communities in 48 outdoor mesocosms| simulating fishless and hypertrophic ponds. The timing of the chlorophyll a peak and crustacean zooplankton peak abundance| dominated by Daphnia pulex| responded strongly to temperature and nutrient addition. Daphnia numbers reached peaks 22-24 days earlier in heated than in unheated mesocosms. The chlorophyll a peak abundance advanced by 15-19 days with heating. Phytoplankton| total zooplankton and D. pulex reached peak abundance 12-19 days later when doses of nitrogen and phosphorus were added; this finding contradicts predicted earlier phytoplankton and zooplankton spring peak abundances with nutrient enrichment. Peak zooplankton and D. pulex abundances did not differ with temperature treatment| contrary to our expectations| but peak abundances occurred at similar actual temperatures. Nutrient additions had no effect on the peak zooplankton and D. pulex abundances in our mesocosms. Overall| climate warming is likely to advance plankton phenology in fishless ponds; however| this advance could be dampened in systems with high nutrient concentration. We found very high zooplankton abundances with warming and high nutrient loadings inducing a clear water state in all our tanks owing to heavy zooplankton grazing despite high nutrient concentrations. 442,2010,2,4,Differential response to cold and warm water conditions in Pocillopora colonies from the Central Mexican Pacific,Coral communities from the Central Mexican Pacific have suffered regional bleaching as a consequence of temperature anomalies stemming from EI Nino Southern Oscillation events and local events. Due to these and other impacts| there is an urgent need to better understand the physiological response of reef corals to changes in their external environment. In this study| we measured lipid content and endosymbiont densities in colonies of the common| reef-building coral Pocillopora verrucosa in order to gauge their response to thermal stress| in particular| over a multi-month time span. Colonies were collected from different depths and different sites in the same area in three different periods. In coral colonies from the southern site| both markers varied temporally over the course of the year| though no variation was found between colonies from different depths. In colonies from the northern site| total lipid content varied significantly between depths and over time. The northern colonies which had been seriously affected by the cold water bleaching appear to be more sensitive to stress events than those from the southern site| which demonstrated an acclimatization response to the elevated temperatures to which they were exposed. And also different colonies were collected and acclimatized in laboratory aquaria and exposed to thermal stress (28 and 31 degrees C). Only colonies exposed to 31 degrees C experienced a significant decrease in total lipid content within their cells. Likewise| these colonies also demonstrated a statistically significant 82% reduction in density of endosymbiotic dinoflagellates (genus Symbiodinium). A better understanding of the ability of corals to acclimatize to different temperature regimes will allow managers to target particular reef ecosystems for enhanced protection under future periods of thermal stress| namely those expected to be brought on by global climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11231,2010,3,3,Diffusion Simulation of CO(2) Discharged in Mesoscale Deep Ocean by Using Moving-Nesting Grid Technique,Although direct injection of CO(2) into the deep ocean is believed feasible for the mitigation of global warming| its impact on the marine environment is of concern. To dilute the injected CO(2) to the point of little biological influence| using a ship that cruises and injects CO(2)| has been considered. To investigate the fate of CO(2) near the ship and in a mesoscale site| a multi-scale ocean model was developed in which a small-scale domain involving the injection ship moves in the mesoscale domain. The simulation results suggested that the moving ship is effective in suppressing the rise of CO(2) concentration. 11114,2010,4,4,Direct versus indirect effects of tropospheric humidity changes on the hydrologic cycle,Abundant evidence indicates that tropospheric specific humidity increases in a warmer atmosphere| at rates roughly comparable to those at constant relative humidity. While the implications for the planetary energy budget and global warming are well recognized| it is the net atmospheric cooling (or surface heating) that controls the hydrologic cycle. Relative humidity influences this directly through gas-phase radiative transfer| and indirectly by affecting cloud cover (and its radiative effects) and convective heating. Simple calculations show that the two indirect impacts are larger than the direct impact by roughly one and two orders of magnitude respectively. Global or regional relative humidity changes could therefore have significant indirect impacts on energy and water cycles| especially by altering deep convection| even if they are too small to significantly affect global temperature. Studies of climate change should place greater emphasis on these indirect links| which may not be adequately represented in models. 10920,2010,2,4,DISCOVERY OF NEW OHBAYASHINEMA SPP. (NEMATODA: HELIGMOSOMOIDEA) IN OCHOTONA PRINCEPS AND OCHOTONA CANSUS (LAGOMORPHA: OCHOTONIDAE) FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL ASIA| WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF HISTORICAL BIOGEOGRAPHY,Three new species of Ohbayashinema (Nematoda| Heligmosomoidea) are described from localities in western North America and central Asia. Two of these species| Ohbayashinema nearctica n. sp. and Ohbayathinema aspeira n. sp.| are parasitic in American pika| Ochotona princeps. Ohbayashinema neatrctica is differentiated from the 5 known species of the genus parasitic in Ochotonidae from the Old World by very lone spicules and an oblique axis of orientation for the ridges composing the synlophe. Ohbayashinema aspeira| described only from females| is similar to Oh. nearctica based on the number of cuticular ridges at the midbody. It is mainly differentiated by an uncoiled anterior extremity and by near equal dimensions of the vestibule and the uterus. The third species. Ohbayashinema patriciae n. sp.| is parasitic in Gansu pika| Ochotona cansus| from China. It is similar to Ohbayashinema erbaevae parasitic in Ochotona dauurica from Buriatia and Ohbayashinema ochotoni in Ochotona macrotis from Nepal| based on the length of the spicules and the ratio of spicule length to body length. It differs from the former species by possessing a smaller number of cuticular ridges and in the comparative length of the vestibule and infundibulum. Related to Oh. ochotoni by an identical number of cuticular ridges at the mid-body| it differs front this species in having smaller ridges in the dorsal rather than ventral field and in the dimensions of the dorsal ray where rays 9 are less than rays 10. Species of Ohbayashinema appear to be host-specific among the Ochotonidae but had not been previously reported in pikes from the Nearctic. Although much remains to be demonstrated about the diversity for helminths in pikas| it is apparent that factors associated with the assembly and structure of parasite faunas have been complex| involving episodic processes for geographic and host colonization along with coevolutionary mechanisms. Understanding the historical factors| particularly climate-driven fluctuations in geographic range| that have structured these faunas suggests that the current regime for global warming and habitat modification has considerable implications for the continuity of already localized assemblages of hosts and parasites. 10649,2010,2,4,Discovery of Novel Benzo[a]phenoxazine SSJ-183 as a Drug Candidate for Malaria,Malaria is a serious infectious disease caused by protozoan parasites in tropical and subtropical regions. Even inhabitants of temperate zones are exposed to the danger of malaria infection because of travel and global warming. Novel| effective|safe| and inexpensive drugs are required to treat malaria and. . contribute to the global goal of eradication. A search for new antimalarial-agents has by the synthesis of by biological evaluations. The derivative SSJ-183(5) having a 4-aminopyridine group| showed an IC(50) value against Plasmodium falciparum of 7.6 nM and a selectivity index of > 7300: Cure was acheived by three oral doses of 5 at 100 mg/kg to mice infected with the Plasmodium berghei ANKA strain. The safety of 5 was supported acute toxicity testing in mice with single doses up to 2000 mg/kg po| chromosome aberration test| in vitro as well as in vivo micronucleus tests and phototoxicity studies in mice. Thus| 5 is a promising candidate as a new antimalarial agent. 11473,2010,5,4,Distribution and Abundance of Rudist Bivalves in the Cretaceous Platform Sequences in Egypt: Time and Space,As the rudist bivalves represent important organic buildups in the Cretaceous platform sequences| this study emphasizes vertical and spatial distribution of this group of bivalves in the geographic divisions of Egypt| including Western Desert| Eastern Desert and Sinai. Rudists are encountered in different rock facies ranging from mudstones to carbonates. About sixty eight species belong to twenty one genera are reported from Egypt. They belong to six families: Requieniidae| Monopleuridae| Caprotinidae| Caprinidae| Hippuritidae| and Radiolitidae. The Radiolitidae is the most diverse family| comprising eleven genera and fifty-one species| dominated by species of Radiolites| Eoradiolites and Durania. The elevator morphotype of the Radiolitidae became the dominant species in the Turonian sequences. The diversity (richness) peaks in the Turonian (36 species) Cenomanian (26 species) and Albian (9 species)| with few records in Aptian| Coniacian| Campanian and Maastrichtian (totally 5 species). As yet rudists are not recorded from Santonian rocks. Geographically| rudists are highly represented in Sinai (60 species) concentrated in the Cenomanian (23 species) and Turonian (32 species)| followed by Western Desert (19 species) and Eastern Desert (8 species). Regarding abundance so far| the relatively highly abundant species in Egypt are Eoradiolites liratus (19 sites)| followed by Praeradiolite biskraensis and Eoradiolites sinaiticus (7 sites for each)| Praeradiolites ponsianus| Durania humei| Radiolites sauvagesi (6 sites for each)| Durania gaensis and Radiolites lusitanicus (5 sites for each). The rare occurrence during the Campanian and Maastrichtian may be attributed to stagnant conditions related to deposition of black shales and phosphatic deposits and the change to deep inner shelf setting respectively. The disappearance of rudists from some segments of the sequence is attributed oceanic anoxia or related to shelf drowning especially at the basal Turonian| which may related to global warming. 11143,2010,2,4,Distribution and Trends in Reference Evapotranspiration in the North China Plain,The distribution and trends in reference evapotranspiration (ET(o)) are extremely important to water resources planning for agriculture| and it is widely believed that rates of ET(o) will increase with global warming. This is a big concern in China| where water deficits are common in the North China Plain (NCP). In this study| Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration at 26 meteorological stations during 1961-2006 in and around the NCP was calculated. The temporal variations and spatial distribution of ET(o) were analyzed and the causes for the variations were discussed. The results showed that: (1) the NCP was divided into two climatic regions based on aridity values: a semiarid region that accounts for 69% of the area and subhumid regions that made of the remaining area; (2) over the entire NCP| the highest annual ET(o) occurred in the central and western areas and the lowest total ET(o) was observed in the east. Comparing the mean monthly ET(o) and annual ET(o) distributions| the high ET(o) values from May through July mainly determined the annual ET(o) distribution; (3) for the whole NCP| annual ET(o) showed a statistically significant decrease of 11.92 mm/decade over the 46 years of data collection in the NCP or approximately a 5% total decrease compared to the ET(o) values in 1961; (4) to determine which variable has the greatest effect on the decrease in ET(o)| decadal changes were observed for daily values of maximum air temperature (+0.16 degrees C)| minimum air temperature (+0.35 degrees C)| net radiation (-0.13 MJ m(-2))| and mean wind speed (-0.09 m s(-1)). These results indicate that the decreasing net radiation and wind speed had a bigger impact on ET(o) rates than the increases observed by the maximum and minimum temperatures. 402,2010,2,4,Distribution of American pikas in a low-elevation lava landscape: conservation implications from the range periphery,Predicting species distributions is increasingly important in conservation biology and| in the context of contemporary climate change| can be particularly informative for populations at the periphery of the range. Peripheral populations can exhibit unique patterns of habitat use in response to marginal conditions and can provide colonists adapted to novel or extreme environments. We conducted surveys for American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during 2007-2009 in 144 sites in Craters of the Moon National Monument and Preserve| Idaho. This species appears vulnerable to global climate change| and Craters of the Moon is an extensive area of low-elevation lava habitat situated on an interior edge of the species' range. We found pikas to be readily detectable when both direct and indirect sign were used. An estimate of detection probability from a subset of 72 sites that were visited twice was 0.92. We detected pikas in 31% of survey sites overall but only at sites above 1|605 m. We used logistic regression to model the distribution of pikas as a function of elevation| substrate| and vegetation cover. Pikas were most likely to occur on structurally complex pahoehoe lava flows above 1|600 m. The odds of pika occurrence on pahoehoe lava was >10 times that of aa lava flows and increased by 2 times for each SD increase in elevation. Pikas were also more likely to occur on lava flow sites with higher structural complexity and forb cover. An area of pahoehoe lava encompassing >250 km(2) in the northern portion of Craters of the Moon contained 9170 of pika detections and all predicted site-occurrence probabilities >0.38| an optimal cutoff value determined by examining model receiver operating characteristic curves. Craters of the Moon may provide long-term refugia for the species| given the extent of lava habitat there. However| the importance of elevation in our models suggests that accelerated climate change could erode suitable pika habitat in the park. Most research on pikas has relied on censuses or nonrandom convenience surveys| but we demonstrate an efficient probabilistic sampling approach that has broad application for pika monitoring and research. DOI: 10.1644/09-MAMM-A-334.1. 546,2010,2,4,Distribution of the fungus-gardening ant (Trachymyrmex septentrionalis) during and after a record drought,1. Insects are known to be influenced by global climate change| especially by drought and increased temperatures. 2. Although ants are widely regarded to be indicator or keystone species and ecosystem engineers| we do not know how ants may respond to global climate change. 3. This study reports the range contraction of an extremely abundant fungus-gardening ant (Trachymyrmex septentrionalis) over a 3-year period that coincided with the end of a record drought in southeastern North America. 4. Reduction in nest number appears to be the result of an increase in water-table levels and decrease in soil aridity. 5. Therefore T. septentrionalis should be expected to increase its abundance and presumably its ecological impact during multiyear droughts. 505,2010,5,4,Distribution of the Iberian Calopteryx damselflies and its relation with bioclimatic belts: Evolutionary and biogeographic implications,Using bioclimatic belts as habitat and distribution predictors| the present study examines the implications of the potential distributions of the three Iberian damselflies| Calopteryx Leach (Odonata: Calopterygidae)| with the aim of investigating the possible consequences in specific interactions among the species from a sexual selection perspective and of discussing biogeographical patterns. To obtain the known distributions| the literature on this genus was reviewed| relating the resulting distributions to bioclimatic belts. Specific patterns related to bioclimatic belts were clearly observed in the Mediterranean region. The potential distribution maps and relative frequencies might involve latitudinal differences in relative abundances| C. virgo meridionalis Selys being the most abundant species in the Eurosiberian region| C. xanthostoma (Charpentier) in the northern half of the Mediterranean region and C. haemorrhoidalis (Vander Linden) in the rest of this region. These differences might explain some previously described latitudinal differences in secondary sexual traits in the three species. Changes in relative abundances may modulate interactions among these species in terms of sexual selection and may produce sexual character displacement in this genus. C. virgo meridionalis distribution and ecological requirements explain its paleobiogeography as a species which took refuge in Iberia during the Wurm glaciation. Finally| possible consequences in species distributions and interactions are discussed within a global climate change context. 671,2010,2,4,Distribution| abundance| and predation effects of epipelagic ctenophores and jellyfish in the western Arctic Ocean,The Arctic Ocean is undergoing changes at an unprecedented rate because of global climate change. Especially poorly-studied in arctic waters are the gelatinous zooplankton| which are difficult to study using traditional oceanographic methods. A distinct zooplanktivore community was characterized in the surface 100 m by use of a Remotely Operated Vehicle| net collections| and SCUBA diving. The large scyphomedusa| Chrysaora melanaster| was associated with the warm Pacific water at similar to 35-75 m depth. A diverse ctenophore community lived mainly above the C. melanaster layer| including Dryodora glandula| a specialized predator of larvaceans| Beroe cucumis| a predator of other ctenophores| and the extremely fragile Bolinopsis infundibulum| which was the most abundant species. Gut content analyses showed that Mertensia ovum selectively consumed the largest copepods (Calanus spp.) and amphipods (Parathemisto libellula): B. infundibulum consumed smaller copepods and pteropods (Limacina helicina). Large copepods were digested by M. ovum in similar to 12 h at -1.5 to 0 degrees C| but by B. infundibulum in only similar to 4 h. We estimated that M. ovum consumed an average of similar to 2% d(-1) of the Calanus spp. copepods and that B. infundibulum consumed similar to 4% d(-1) of copepods < 3 mm prosome length. These are significant consumption rates given that Calanus spp. have life-cycles of 2 or more years and are eaten by vertebrates including bowhead whales and arctic cod. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10723,2010,2,4,Diurnal and seasonal variation in methane emissions in a northern Canadian peatland measured by eddy covariance,Eddy covariance measurements of methane (CH(4)) net flux were made in a boreal fen| typical of the most abundant peatlands in western Canada during May-September 2007. The objectives of this study were to determine: (i) the magnitude of diurnal and seasonal variation in CH(4) net flux| (ii) the relationship between the temporally varying flux rates and associated changes in controlling biotic and abiotic factors| and (iii) the contribution of CH(4) emission to the ecosystem growing season carbon budget. There was significant diurnal variation in CH(4) emission during the peak of the growing season that was strongly correlated with associated changes in solar radiation| latent heat flux| air temperature and ecosystem conductance to water vapor. During days 181-215| nighttime average CH(4) efflux was only 47% of the average midday values. The peak value for daily average CH(4) emission rate was approximately 80 nmol m-2 s-1 (4.6 mg CH(4) m-2 h-1)| and seasonal variation in CH(4) flux was strongly correlated with changes in soil temperature. Integrated over the entire measurement period [days 144-269 (late May-late September)]| the total CH(4) emission was 3.2 g CH(4) m-2| which was quite low relative to other wetland ecosystems and to the simultaneous high rate of ecosystem net CO(2) sequestration that was measured (18.1 mol CO(2) m-2 or 217 g C m-2). We estimate that the negative radiative forcing (cooling) associated with net carbon storage over the life of the peatland (approximately 2200 years) was at least twice the value of positive radiative forcing (warming) caused by net CH(4) emission over the last 50 years. 10796,2010,2,4,Diverging climate trends in Mongolian taiga forests influence growth and regeneration of Larix sibirica,Central and semiarid north-eastern Asia was subject to twentieth century warming far above the global average. Since forests of this region occur at their drought limit| they are particularly vulnerable to climate change. We studied the regional variations of temperature and precipitation trends and their effects on tree growth and forest regeneration in Mongolia. Tree-ring series from more than 2|300 trees of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) collected in four regions of Mongolia's forest zone were analyzed and related to available weather data. Climate trends underlie a remarkable regional variation leading to contrasting responses of tree growth in taiga forests even within the same mountain system. Within a distance of a few hundred kilometers (140-490 km)| areas with recently reduced growth and regeneration of larch alternated with regions where these parameters remained constant or even increased. Reduced productivity could be correlated with increasing summer temperatures and decreasing precipitation; improved growth conditions were found at increasing precipitation| but constant summer temperatures. An effect of increasing winter temperatures on tree-ring width or forest regeneration was not detectable. Since declines of productivity and regeneration are more widespread in the Mongolian taiga than the opposite trend| a net loss of forests is likely to occur in the future| as strong increases in temperature and regionally differing changes in precipitation are predicted for the twenty-first century. 10661,2010,5,4,Diversity dynamics of Miocene mammals in relation to the history of tectonism and climate,Continental biodiversity gradients result not only from ecological processes| but also from evolutionary and geohistorical processes involving biotic turnover in landscape and climatic history over millions of years. Here| we investigate the evolutionary and historical contributions to the gradient of increasing species richness with topographic complexity. We analysed a dataset of 418 fossil rodent species from western North America spanning 25 to 5Ma. We compared diversification histories between tectonically active (Intermontane West) and quiescent (Great Plains) regions. Although diversification histories differed between the two regions| species richness| origination rate and extinction rate per million years were not systematically different over the 20 Myr interval. In the tectonically active region| the greatest increase in originations coincided with a Middle Miocene episode of intensified tectonic activity and global warming. During subsequent global cooling| species richness declined in the montane region and increased on the Great Plains. These results suggest that interactions between tectonic activity and climate change stimulate diversification in mammals. The elevational diversity gradient characteristic of modern mammalian faunas was not a persistent feature over geologic time. Rather| the Miocene rodent record suggests that the elevational diversity gradient is a transient feature arising during particular episodes of Earth's history. 11456,2010,4,4,Diversity of methanotrophs in Zoige wetland soils under both anaerobic and aerobic conditions,Zoige wetland is one of the most important methane emission centers in China. The oxidation of methane in the wetland affects global warming| soil ecology and atmospheric chemistry. Despite their global significance| microorganisms that consume methane in Zoige wetland remain poorly characterized. In this study| we investigated methanotrophs diversity in soil samples from both anaerobic site and aerobic site in Zoige wetland using pmoA gene as a molecular marker. The cloning library was constructed according to the pmoA sequences detected. Four clusters of methanotrophs were detected. The phylogenetic tree showed that all four clusters detected were affiliated to type I methanotrophs. Two novel clusters (cluster 1| cluster 2) were found to relate to none of the recognized genera of methanotrophs. These clusters have no cultured representatives and reveal an ecological adaptation of particular uncultured methanotrophs in Zoige wetland. Two clusters were belonging to Methylobacter and Methylococcus separately. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis gel bands pattern retrieved from these two samples revealed that the community compositions of anaerobic soil and aerobic soil were different from each other while anaerobic soil showed a higher metanotrophs diversity. Real-time PCR assays of the two samples demonstrated that aerobic soil sample in Zoige wetland was 1.5 times as much copy numbers as anaerobic soil. These data illustrated that methanotrophs are a group of microorganisms influence the methane consumption in Zoige wetland. 11176,2010,3,4,Dividing climate change: global warming in the Indian mass media,Much research has now been conducted into the representation of climate change in the media. Specifically| the communication of climate change from scientists and policy-makers to the public via the mass media has been a subject of major interest because of its implications for creating national variation in public understanding of a global environmental issue. However| to date| no study has assessed the situation in India. As one of the major emerging economies| and so one of the major greenhouse gas emitters| India is a key actor in the climate change story. This study analyses the four major| national circulation English-language newspapers to quantify and qualify the frames through which climate change is represented in India. The results strongly contrast with previous studies from developed countries; by framing climate change along a 'risk-responsibility divide'| the Indian national press set up a strongly nationalistic position on climate change that divides the issue along both developmental and postcolonial lines. 639,2010,4,4,DNA uncovers Antarctic nemertean biodiversity and exposes a decades-old cold case of asymmetric inventory,With threats to biodiversity posed by anthropogenic impacts and global climate change| characterization of existing flora and fauna is increasingly important| but continues to focus predominantly on easily studied taxa. In the Southern Ocean| levels of species richness remain relatively unexplored due to remoteness and difficulties of sampling the region. Nemerteans (proboscis worms; ribbon worms) are unusually abundant and occasionally conspicuous in the Antarctic region. Despite being routinely collected| difficulties in preserving voucher material| morphological limitations| and shortage of taxonomic expertise have hindered our understanding of nemertean diversity. To assess patterns of diversity| we examined a fragment of the mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene from larval and adult nemerteans (n = 192) from 53 sites along the western Antarctic Peninsula. We found 20 distinct lineages having an uncorrected genetic distance (p) greater than 5% to the nearest sister taxon or group| 19 of which have not been genetically characterized in previous studies. Additionally| the putatively dominant adult species in the region| Parborlasia corrugatus| was found to comprise only 4.3% of larvae sampled (n = 3 out of 69 samples from 12 locations). Of 47 nemertean species recorded from Antarctic waters| 20 are heteronemerteans and therefore could have a pelagic pilidium larval phase. These results suggest that Antarctic biodiversity is underestimated| and that unknown species of nemerteans await description from Southern Ocean waters. 653,2010,2,4,Do competitors modulate rare plant response to precipitation change?,Ecologists increasingly suspect that climate change will directly impact species physiology. demography| and phenology| but also indirectly affect these measures Via changes to the Surrounding community. Unfortunately| few studies examine both the direct and indirect pathways of impact. Doing so is important because altered competitive pressures can reduce or magnify the direct responses of a focal species to climate change. Here. we examine the effects of changing rainfall on three rare annual plant species in the presence and absence of competition on the California Channel Islands. We used rain-out shelters and hand watering to exclude and augment early| late| and season-long rainfall| spanning the wide range of precipitation change forecast for the region. In the absence of competition| droughts reduced the population growth rates of two of three Cocal annuals| while increased rainfall was only sometimes beneficial. As compared to the focal species| the dominant competitors were more sensitive to the precipitation treatments| benefiting from increased season-long precipitation and harmed by droughts. Importantly| the response of two of three competitors to the precipitation treatments tended to be positively correlated with those of the focal annuals. Although this leads to the expectation that increased competition will counter the direct benefits of favorable conditions| such indirect effects of precipitation change proved weak to nonexistent in our experiment. Competitors had little influence on the precipitation response of two focal species| due to their low sensitivity to competition and highly variable precipitation responses. Competition did affect low our third focal species responded to precipitation change| but this effect only approached significance| and whether it truly resulted from competitor response to precipitation change was unclear. Our work suggests that even| when competitors respond to climate change| these responses may have little effect on the focal species. Ultimately| the strength of the indirect effect depends on how strongly climate change alters competition. and how sensitive focal species are to changes in competition. 10663,2010,2,3,Do global warming targets limit heatwave risk?,Climate change mitigation targets are often described in terms of annually averaged global mean temperature increases. However local interpretation of impacts resulting from these targets are required if the public is to have a sound appreciation of their consequences. Some of the largest impacts are likely to arise from changes in extreme events| for example heatwaves and floods. This article estimates future regional heat extreme changes consistent with specific global warming targets| using a new and presently unique ensemble of physically plausible climate simulations. We find that a subset of ensemble members giving globally averaged temperature increases of 2.0 +/- 0.5 degrees C shows a wide range of changes in regional temperature extremes. For example| changes in extreme single-day hot events range between 2 and 6 degrees C for large parts of Europe| North America and Asia for this target. Plausible variations in the model representation of forest roughness length| vegetation root depth and boundary layer cloud make the largest individual contributions to the spread of changes found in different parts of the world. However| a wide range of processes contribute to the uncertainties in the regional changes| particularly through their direct or indirect influences on the simulation of soil moisture. Citation: Clark| R. T.| J. M. Murphy| and S. J. Brown (2010)| Do global warming targets limit heatwave risk?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L17703| doi: 10.1029/2010GL043898. 725,2010,4,4,Do we need to include soil evolution module in models for prediction of future climate change?,Climate change induce increases in precipitation in Northern Europe that may in turn affect soil evolution by increasing the amounts of water flowing through soils. However| there is a general lack of consideration of the impact of climate change on soil evolution. We propose here to use agricultural soil drainage-that also increases the amount of water flowing through soils-as an analogy to climate change. We thus studied the impact of 16 years of agricultural drainage in one cropped plot of the most common type of soils of Northern Europe. To estimate the importance of the soil evolution induced by drainage| we compared it to the long term natural evolution of that soil. The recent increase in water fluxes by agricultural drainage (16 years) has resulted in an increase in the intensity and velocity of the natural pedological processes. The increased amount of water flowing thorough soils due to drainage is of same order of magnitude than that that would be induced by climate change in the next 50-100 years in northern Europe. Our results demonstrated thus that climate change will significantly affect soil evolution. This evolution induces losses of the finest particles involved in organic carbon sequestration and thus has a feedback effect on climate change. Therefore we consider that soil evolution in response to climate change has to be explicitly studied and included in models predicting global climate change. 530,2010,4,4,Does the model regional bias affect the projected regional climate change? An analysis of global model projections,An analysis is presented of the dependence of the regional temperature and precipitation change signal on systematic regional biases in global climate change projections. The CMIP3 multi-model ensemble is analyzed over 26 land regions and for the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario. For temperature| the model regional bias has a negligible effect on the projected regional change. For precipitation| a significant correlation between change and bias is found in about 30% of the seasonal/regional cases analyzed| covering a wide range of different climate regimes. For these cases| a performance-based selection of models in producing climate change scenarios can affect the resulting change estimate| and it is noted that a minimum of four to five models is needed to obtain robust precipitation change estimates. In a number of cases| models with largely different precipitation biases can still produce changes of consistent sign. Overall| it is assessed that in the present generation of models the regional bias does not appear to be a dominant factor in determining the simulated regional change in the majority of cases. 377,2010,2,4,Dominance and compensatory growth in phytoplankton communities under salinity stress,Increasing levels of environmental stress due to global warming and eutrophication| and concerns about an unparalleled global diversity loss| have triggered new interest in the question whether the stability of ecosystem properties depends on population dynamics of dominant species or on compensatory growth of rare species. Recent meta-analyses suggest that compensatory dynamics are rare in natural systems. Experimental results| however| indicate that the interdependence of stressor regime| species traits| and species richness determines which mechanisms stabilise communities. Stability will depend on population dynamics of dominant species| if they remain the best performers regardless of disturbance. If dominant species become rare or lost| compensatory growth of rare species will insure natural communities against complete failure. Salinity is an important stressor governing growth and distribution of phytoplankton in brackish ecosystems| and its impact on coastal aquatic ecosystems is likely to change due to global warming. We performed two short-term experiments to investigate the effects of salinity stress on community structure and biomass production of natural phytoplankton communities collected in tidally influenced and polymictic Lake Waihola (New Zealand). The lake was brackish when the inoculum for the first experiment was collected. The inoculum for the second experiment originated from a fresh water situation. In both experiments| the phytoplankton assemblage was exposed to a salinity gradient ranging from 0 to 5. To assess the importance of dominance and compensatory growth| we determined biomass production| species richness| diversity| evenness and dominance indices| and species specific growth rates. Biomass production in our experiments was determined by dominant species. Anabaena flos-aquae dominated in the first experiment| and Asterionella formosa in the second experiment. Despite the importance of these species| we found significant growth responses of rare and abundant species. Even if these species showed high growth rates| biomass production was carried by the dominant species as long as the salinity level allowed them to grow. When the salinity level was detrimental to the growth of the dominant species| reduced dominance and increased diversity indices emphasised the importance of compensatory growth of rare species. The salinity stress applied in our experiments was strong enough to change the hierarchy of successful functional traits| which affected community structure and biomass production of the plankton communities. If the predicted sea water rise| increasing frequency of storm tides| rising water temperatures| and altered precipitation and run-off cause the salinity of coastal aquatic ecosystems to change| major changes in community composition| diversity and dominance structure of planktonic primary producers might be expected. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11474,2010,2,4,Doubled volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under simulated climate warming,P>Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from arctic ecosystems are important in view of their role in global atmospheric chemistry and unknown feedbacks to global warming. These cold ecosystems are hotspots of climate warming| which will be more severe here than averaged over the globe. We assess the effects of climatic warming on non-methane BVOC emissions from a subarctic heath. We performed ecosystem-based chamber measurements and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of the BVOCs collected on adsorbent over two growing seasons at a wet subarctic tundra heath hosting a long-term warming and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) litter addition experiment. The relatively low emissions of monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes were doubled in response to an air temperature increment of only 1.9-2.5 degrees C| while litter addition had a minor influence. BVOC emissions were seasonal| and warming combined with litter addition triggered emissions of specific compounds. The unexpectedly high rate of release of BVOCs measured in this conservative warming scenario is far above the estimates produced by the current models| which underlines the importance of a focus on BVOC emissions during climate change. The observed changes have implications for ecological interactions and feedback effects on climate change via impacts on aerosol formation and indirect greenhouse effects. 11199,2010,2,4,DOWNSCALING EXTREMES: A COMPARISON OF EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTIONS IN POINT-SOURCE AND GRIDDED PRECIPITATION DATA,There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century| and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However| understanding these issues is limited by a fundamental issue of spatial scaling: most evidence of past trends comes from rain gauge data| whereas trends into the future are produced by climate models| which rely on gridded aggregates. To study this further| we fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the right tail of the distribution of both rain gauge and gridded events. The results of this modeling exercise confirm that return values computed from rain gauge data are typically higher than those computed from gridded data; however| the size of the difference is somewhat surprising| with the rain gauge data exhibiting return values sometimes two or three times that of the gridded data. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a family of regression relationships between the two sets of return values that also take spatial variations into account. Based on these results| we now believe it is possible to project future changes in precipitation extremes at the point-location level based on results from climate models. 421,2010,4,4,Drivers of growth variation in juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): an elasticity analysis approach,1. Estimating the relative importance of factors affecting key vital rates is an essential challenge for population ecology. In spite of a large literature on individual growth rates of north temperate-zone fishes| relative effect sizes for the wide range of abiotic and biotic factors affecting fish growth are not well characterized| strongly limiting our ability to predict the effects of environmental change on fish populations. 2. We applied generalized linear mixed models to data from a long-term (nine cohorts over 10 years) individual-based (7685 records from 4203 individuals) study of stream-dwelling juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) to estimate the relative importance and interactive effects of stream discharge| water temperature and population density on season-specific growth rates. The model explained a large proportion (r2 = 0 center dot 95) of observed variation in growth. 3. Elasticity analysis was used to estimate the relative importance of model variables on growth in length for Atlantic salmon between age 0+ autumn and the end of age 1+ winter. Effects of population density were substantially weaker than effects of discharge and temperature across all seasons. Opposing among-season temperature effects reduced the overall importance of temperature on growth in contrast to discharge| where effects were generally positive among seasons. Consistent among-season effects and a greater range of observed variation combined to increase the effect of discharge on growth compared to temperature. 4. These results suggest that robust predictions of body growth in north temperate stream fishes will need to include season-specific estimates of variation in both abiotic (temperature and discharge) and biotic (density) factors| but that variation in discharge will dominate growth responses. 424,2010,2,4,Drought impact on stream detritivores: experimental effects on leaf litter breakdown and life cycles,Predictions of effects of global climate change include decreased runoff for many parts of the world| which will result in drying of streams. Information of the effects of drought on aquatic ecosystems is limited and little is known of the effects on ecosystem functions. Our main objective was to measure the direct effects of drought on leaf litter breakdown by invertebrate shredders in a controlled laboratory experiment. We hypothesized a decreased breakdown at high drought level. Single-species and multi-species treatments with three shredder species (Asellus aquaticus| Limnephilus bipunctatus| and L. flavicornis) were set up in an experiment with three drought level treatments| control| medium| and high drought (6 cm water level| 1 cm water level| and water level below sediment surface| respectively). Breakdown measured as leaf litter loss was significantly lower in both medium and high drought treatments compared to the control. Previously| decreased breakdown due to drying has been reported| but attributed to low densities of invertebrate shredders. We show that even when shredders are present| drought decreases the breakdown. Drought treatments also induced earlier pupation for the caddisfly L. flavicornis. Shifts in species phenology due to drought| e.g.| earlier emergence| may affect species ability to adult survival and reproduction. Shifts in timing of emergence may also affect terrestrial food webs| where emerging aquatic insects may constitute an important food subsidy. Our knowledge of the complex effects of droughts in aquatic systems is limited with an urgent need of extended knowledge of the ecological effects of droughts on freshwater ecosystem functioning. 474,2010,2,4,Drought-induced mortality of Scots pines at the southern limits of its distribution in Europe: causes and consequences,Several severe drought events have been reported in southern Europe during recent decades. Drought has been found to increase the mortality of the southernmost populations of Scots pine forests in Mediterranean countries and in dry inner-alpine valleys. Therefore the ongoing global climate change is likely to endanger Scots pine in future decades. Carbon starvation might be the main cause of the increasing mortality rate due to less carbon uptake and consequently to high susceptibility to biotic attacks. Forest management| in particular| thinning and shrub removal could decrease the intensity of drought stress by decreasing competition for water resources and thus increasing carbon uptake. The ongoing climate change and adaptive forest management will both play an important role for the sustainability of this specie across southern regions of Europe. 11472,2010,3,2,Dry Sliding Behavior of Sub-Micrometer-Sized Suspension Plasma Sprayed Ceramic Oxide Coatings,Almost half of the energy produced by an automotive engine is dissipated by friction in the cylinders| the clutch| etc. In the context of reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to mitigate climate global warming (CGW)| reduction of energy losses due to friction is a critical issue. Surface treatments appear in such a context| as never than before| to be able to provide pertinent solutions to improve sliding behavior of mechanical parts. Numerous studies have clearly shown that decreasing the scale of coating structure below the micrometer scale was leading to an improvement of its tribological behavior in terms of friction coefficient and wear rate thanks to improved mechanical properties| the toughness in particular. Suspension Plasma Spraying (SPS) appears as a thermal spray process to be able to manufacture thick (i.e.| a few tens of micrometers) coatings exhibiting a sub-micrometer-sized or even a nanometer-sized architecture| while keeping the versatility and flexibility of the thermal spray routes: i.e.| the ability to process a wide range of material natures onto a wide range of substrate materials of various geometries. This article aims at studying the tribological behavior of several ceramic oxide composite coatings under dry conditions. The structural scale and the effect of composition are considered in particular. 624,2010,2,4,Dry weather induces outbreaks of human West Nile virus infections,Background: Since its first occurrence in the New York City area during 1999| West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across North America and has become a major public health concern in North America. By 2002| WNV was reported in 40 states and the District of Columbia with 4|156 human and 14|539 equine cases of infection. Mississippi had the highest human incidence rate of WNV during the 2002 epidemic in the United States. Epidemics of WNV can impose enormous impacts on local economies. Therefore| it is advantageous to predict human WNV risks for cost-effective controls of the disease and optimal allocations of limited resources. Understanding relationships between precipitation and WNV transmission is crucial for predicting the risk of the human WNV disease outbreaks under predicted global climate change scenarios. Methods: We analyzed data on the human WNV incidences in the 82 counties of Mississippi in 2002| using standard morbidity ratio (SMR) and Bayesian hierarchical models| to determine relationships between precipitation and human WNV risks. We also entertained spatial autocorrelations of human WNV risks with conditional autocorrelative (CAR) models| implemented in WinBUGS 1.4.3. Results: We observed an inverse relationship between county-level human WNV incidence risk and total annual rainfall during the previous year. Parameters representing spatial heterogeneity in the risk of human exposure to WNV improved model fit. Annual precipitation of the previous year was a predictor of spatial variation of WNV risk. Conclusions: Our results have broad implications for risk assessment of WNV and forecasting WNV outbreaks. Assessing risk of vector-born infectious diseases will require understanding of complex ecological relationships. Based on the climatologically characteristic drought occurrence in the past and on climate model predictions for climate change and potentially greater drought occurrence in the future| we suggest that the frequency and relative risk of WNV outbreaks could increase. 11445,2010,3,2,Drying of Woody Biomass for Bioenergy: Drying Technologies and Optimization for an Integrated Bioenergy Plant,The heavy reliance of mankind on fossil fuels has caused serious consequences| such as global warming and potential energy crisis. Biomass originating from plants has been recognized as the most promising alternative source for energy and fuels in the future. The biomass| in the forms of wood chips| sawdust| bagasse| grass| and agricultural residues| contains moisture from 50 to over 150% and must be dried in order to increase energy efficiency| improve energy product quality| and reduce emissions during energy conversion. A number of dryer types and drying technologies can potentially be used for biomass drying. Selection of the dryer and optimization of drying conditions requires in-depth understanding and quantification of the biomass material| requirements of energy conversion| and the drying process. This review article focuses on woody biomass; it first discusses the characteristics of woody biomass and thermochemical energy conversion technologies in industrial applications. Then| promising drying technologies and fundamental studies are reviewed and evaluated to examine their suitability and optimization for different forms of the biomass. The dryer types considered include a packed moving bed dryer (conveyor dryer)| a rotary dryer| and a pneumatic dryer. Issues involved in biomass drying and possible solutions are addressed. 387,2010,2,4,Dwarf mistletoe effects on soil basidiomycete community structure| soil fungal functional diversity| and soil enzyme function: Implications for climate change,We used a combination of molecular| culture and biochemical methods to test the hypothesis that severe infection of pine by dwarf mistletoe (genus Arceuthobium) has significant effects on structure and function of soil fungal communities| and on carbon cycling in soils. PLR and DNA sequencing of the basidiomycete communities in paired blocks of uninfected and infected trees revealed: (1) that the top| organic soil layer in this system is inhabited almost exclusively by ectomycorrhizal fungi; (2) no difference in species richness (6 species core(-1) in both) or Shannon-Wiener evenness (0.740 and 0.747 in uninfected and infected blocks respectively)| however Shannon-Wiener diversity was significantly greater in infected blocks (1.19 vs 1.94 in uninfected and infected blocks respectively| P < 0.05); (3) significant differences in basidiomycete species composition| with nearly complete absence of two system co-dominant Russula species in infected blocks| and replacement of one co-dominant Piloderma species with another in infected plots| indicating physiological variability within the genus. Soil fungal physiological diversity measured using the Fungilog system was significantly greater in terms of both number of carbon substrates used by culturable soil fungi (both ascomycetes and basidiomycetes) in infected blocks| and the rate at which these substrates were used. Soil enzyme assays revealed greater laccase| peroxidase| and cellulase activities in soils associated with infected trees. Thus| event cascades associated with severe dwarf mistletoe infection not only significantly affected soil fungal species composition and increased species diversity| but also impacted on carbon-related function and functional diversity. Given the geographic range of this pathogen| and forecasts that epidemics of this disease will increase in range in severity with global climate change| these effects have the potential to significantly impact local and global carbon budgets. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 10496,2010,3,1,Dynamic Competition under Cap and Trade Programs,Greenhouse gases (GHG)| like carbon dioxide (CO(2))| which are released in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic activities like power production| are now accepted as the main culprits for global warming. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)| an initiative of the north-east and mid-Atlantic States of the US for limiting the emission of GHG| has proposed a regional cap-and-trade program for CO(2) emissions for power plants. This forthcoming emissions market is expected to have a major impact on the developing deregulated wholesale electricity markets. Our goal is to model and study the interaction of these two markets and to assess the impact of the emissions market on wholesale electricity prices. 11324,2010,2,3,Dynamic Simulating to the Accumulation and Distribution of Dry Matter for Black Walnut (Juglans hindsii) Seedlings,It is very important to study eco-physiological processes of plants and to determine quantitative relations between accumulation| distribution of dry matter and environmental factors for regionalization| standardization and precision agriculture. Meanwhile| global changes| e.g.| atmospheric CO(2) concentration rising| global warming| and climate abnormity| have been effecting on agricultural productivity. This study provides a theoretical basis for predicting productive potentials and development trends in different agricultural regions. One-year-old black walnut (Juglans hindsii) seedlings were employed as subjects for setting up the dynamic models of dry matter accumulation and distribution| based on mechanistic models of photosynthesis| matter conservation and concentration gradient. Under optimum conditions of soil moisture and mineral nutrient| during the period of the canopy construction| the dry matter accumulation of the canopy conformed to logistic curves; but the accumulation of both total biomass and dry matter of stem-root could be divided into two phases: the first phase was exponential increase| the second was linear increase. The total biomass| dry matter of canopy and stem-root all presented a fluctuant increase| which was affected by the environmental factors. Ratio of daily increase of dry matter in the canopy and the steem-root (dW(l)/dW(s)) was changeable along with growth periods and environmental factors. At the initial stage of the canopy forming| dW(l)/dW(s) was larger| about 3.2 on average| which indicated that the photosynthetic product was mainly used to develop leaves; in the midterm| it was about 1.9| which indicated that the distribution of dry matter in the canopy and in the stem-root was relatively balanced; when the plant tended to stop growing| dW(l)/dW(s) decreased linearly| and the main distribution of dry matter moved to the roots. 663,2010,2,4,Dynamics and distribution of natural and human-caused hypoxia,Water masses can become undersaturated with oxygen when natural processes alone or in combination with anthropogenic processes produce enough organic carbon that is aerobically decomposed faster than the rate of oxygen re-aeration. The dominant natural processes usually involved are photosynthetic carbon production and microbial respiration. The re-supply rate is indirectly related to its isolation from the surface layer. Hypoxic water masses (< 2 mg L(-1)| or approximately 30% saturation) can form| therefore| under 'natural' conditions| and are more likely to occur in marine systems when the water residence time is extended| water exchange and ventilation are minimal| stratification occurs| and where carbon production and export to the bottom layer are relatively high. Hypoxia has occurred through geological time and naturally occurs in oxygen minimum zones| deep basins| eastern boundary upwelling systems| and fjords. Hypoxia development and continuation in many areas of the world's coastal ocean is accelerated by human activities| especially where nutrient loading increased in the Anthropocene. This higher loading set in motion a cascading set of events related to eutrophication. The formation of hypoxic areas has been exacerbated by any combination of interactions that increase primary production and accumulation of organic carbon leading to increased respiratory demand for oxygen below a seasonal or permanent pycnocline. Nutrient loading is likely to increase further as population growth and resource intensification rises| especially with increased dependency on crops using fertilizers| burning of fossil fuels| urbanization| and waste water generation. It is likely that the occurrence and persistence of hypoxia will be even more widespread and have more impacts than presently observed. Global climate change will further complicate the causative factors in both natural and human-caused hypoxia. The likelihood of strengthened stratification alone| from increased surface water temperature as the global climate warms| is sufficient to worsen hypoxia where it currently exists and facilitate its formation in additional waters. Increased precipitation that increases freshwater discharge and flux of nutrients will result in increased primary production in the receiving waters up to a point. The interplay of increased nutrients and stratification where they occur will aggravate and accelerate hypoxia. Changes in wind fields may expand oxygen minimum zones onto more continental shelf areas. On the other hand| not all regions will experience increased precipitation| some oceanic water temperatures may decrease as currents shift| and frequency and severity of tropical storms may increase and temporarily disrupt hypoxia more often. The consequences of global warming and climate change are effectively uncontrollable at least in the near term. On the other hand| the consequences of eutrophication-induced hypoxia can be reversed if long-term| broad-scale| and persistent efforts to reduce substantial nutrient loads are developed and implemented. In the face of globally expanding hypoxia| there is a need for water and resource managers to act now to reduce nutrient loads to maintain| at least| the current status. 10435,2010,2,4,Dynamics of a benthic microbial community in a riverine environment subject to hydrological fluctuations (Mulargia River| Italy),Temporary rivers are characterized by recurrent dry phases| and global warming will stress their hydrology by amplifying extreme events. Microbial degradation and transformation of organic matter (OM) in riverbed sediment are key processes with regard to carbon and nutrient fluxes. In this study| we describe structural and functional changes of benthic microbial communities in a riverine environment subject to hydrological fluctuation. Sampling was carried out in the outlet section of the Mulargia River (Sardinia| Italy) under various water regimes| including one flood event. Overall| sediments were characterized by low bacterial cell abundance (range 0.6-1.8 x 10(9) cell g(-1)) as a consequence of their low nutrient and OM concentrations. No major differences were found in the community composition. Alpha-Proteobacteria dominated during the whole year (range 21-30%) followed by Beta-Proteobacteria| Gamma-Proteobacteria| and Cytophaga-Flavobacteria which always contributed < 18%. Planctomycetes and Firmicutes were found in smaller amounts (< 7%). In spring| when the highest total organic carbon content was also detected (0.42% w/w)| both bacterial abundance and C production (BCP| 170 nmol C h(-1) g(-1)) reached relatively high values. During the flood event| an increase in BCP and the highest values of community respiration (CR| 74 nmol C h(-1) g(-1)) were observed. Moreover| most of the extracellular enzyme activities (EEA) changed significantly during the flood. The variation of the water flow itself can explain part of these changes and other factors also come into play. The presence of different patterns of functional parameters could suggest that the quality of the OM could be the major driving force in nutrient flux. 683,2010,3,4,Early effects of water deficit on two parental clones of Populus nigra grown under different environmental conditions,Global climate change is expected to induce a dramatic increase in the frequency and intensity of drought events in the Mediterranean region. Their effects might be particularly severe in short rotation forestry systems| such as poplar plantations| with high water demands. The aim of this study was to examine the clone-specific reaction of plant-water relations and growth to a dry-down cycle in two parental clones of Populus nigra L.: Poli| which is adapted to the dry/hot climatic conditions of southern Italy| and 58-861| which prefers the cooler and moister conditions typical in northern Italy. Plants were grown in controlled conditions in an airconditioned greenhouse| under three different irrigation regimes for 44 days. Drought stress resulted in a general decrease in plant size and predawn water potential in both clones. Although the control trees grew somewhat taller and retained leaves longer than those in other treatments| the two clones responded differently to water stress. Under severe stress conditions| Poli showed proline accumulation in old leaves to preserve plants from drought damage| without reduced stomatal activity| as shown by low values of delta(13)C. In 58-861| the accumulation of ABA in roots during drought probably stimulated stomatal control| increasing drought avoidance in this drought-sensitive clone. Although in 58-861 the expression of aquaporin genes PIP1-2 and TIP1-3 was enhanced| in Poli gene expression was downregulated. We analysed only part of the aquaporins genes| but we assume that these clones exhibited contrasting water transport strategies during drought. Clone 58-861 seems to increase the permeability of the vascular tissue by overexpressing aquaporin genes| probably in order to facilitate water transport| and Poli appears to increase water conservation in the root cells by downregulating aquaporins. 10847,2010,5,4,Early Paleogene Arctic terrestrial ecosystems affected by the change of polar hydrology under global warming: Implications for modern climate change at high latitudes,Our understanding of both the role and impact of Arctic environmental changes under the current global warming climate is rather limited despite efforts of improved monitoring and wider assessment through remote sensing technology. Changes of Arctic ecosystems under early Paleogene warming climate provide an analogue to evaluate long-term responses of Arctic environmental alteration to global warming. This study reviews Arctic terrestrial ecosystems and their transformation under marked change of hydrological conditions during the warmest period in early Cenozoic| the Paleocene and Eocene. We describe a new approach to quantitatively reconstruct high latitudinal paleohydrology using compound-specific hydrogen isotope analysis which applies empirically derived genus-specific hydrogen isotope fractionations to in situ biomolecules from fossil plants. We propose a moisture recycling model at the Arctic to explain the reconstructed hydrogen isotope signals of ancient high latitude precipitation during early Paleogene| which bears implications to the likely change of modern Arctic ecosystems under the projected accelerated global warming. 527,2010,2,2,EARTH Interactions,Recent research indicates that the warming of the climate system resulting from increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next century will persist for many centuries after the cessation of these emissions| principally because of the persistence of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentrations and their attendant radiative forcing. However| it is unknownwhether the responses of other components of the climate system-including those related to Greenland and Antarctic ice cover| the Atlantic thermohaline circulation| the West African monsoon| and ecosystem and human welfare would be reversed even if atmospheric CO(2) concentrations were to recover to 1990 levels. Here| using a simple set of experiments employing a current-generation numerical climate model| the authors examine the response of the physical climate system to decreasing CO(2) concentrations following an initial increase. Results indicate that many characteristics of the climate system| including global temperatures| precipitation| soil moisture| and sea ice| recover as CO(2) concentrations decrease. However| other components of the Earth system may still exhibit nonlinear hysteresis. In these experiments| for instance| increases in stratospheric water vapor| which initially result from increased CO(2) concentrations| remain present even as CO(2) concentrations recover. These results suggest that identification of additional threshold behaviors in response to human-induced global climate change should focus on subcomponents of the full Earth system| including cryosphere| biosphere| and chemistry. 604,2010,3,4,Earthworms| soil fertility and aggregate-associated soil organic matter dynamics in the Quesungual agroforestry system,Issues of food security| environmental degradation and global climate change underscore the need for the improved understanding of sustainable agricultural systems around the globe. The Quesungual slash-and-mulch agroforestry system (QSMAS) of western Honduras offers a promising alternative to traditional slash-and-burn (SB) agriculture for the mountainous tropical dry forest zones of Central America| but the overall influence of this system on soils is not fully understood. We examined earthworm populations| soil fertility and soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics under QSMAS and SB agriculture| with secondary forest (SF) as a reference. Both QSMAS and SB consisted of treatments with and without inorganic fertilizer (N-P-K) additions| resulting in five management treatments| each present on three replicate farms. Baseline soil samples (0-15 cm) were collected prior to forest clearing and establishment of QSMAS plots in 2003 and in SB and SF plots in 2005 to determine initial soil concentrations of C and N. Soils were sampled in 2006 and 2007 for bulk soil C and N and P availability| as well as for aggregate fractionation and determination of C and N within the different aggregate size fractions. Earthworm populations were assessed in July 2007. Earthworm numbers and biomass were higher under QSMAS than under SB (13.4 vs. 0.8 g fresh biomass m(-2) : respectively). Significant interactions between cropping system and fertilization suggest that QSMAS increased the availability of added inorganic P| 3 times more under QSMAS than for SB. Comparisons with SF| indicated that both cropping systems resulted in a dramatic loss of C (average 5gC kg(-1) soil) since treatment implementation| and that this loss was mainly associated with the disruption of C rich large macroaggregates (>2000 mu m). After taking into account baseline soil C differences between plots| no major differences in total SOM losses Were found between QSMAS and SB management. However| earlier establishment of QSMAS plots suggests that the overall rate of C loss since treatment establishment was lower for QSMAS than for SB. Results from this study suggest that the Quesungual agroforestry system offers great potential to improve soil fertility and biological health in the region relative to traditional slash-and-burn agriculture. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11383,2010,3,4,Eco-balance analysis of land use combinations to minimize environmental impacts and maximize farm income in northern Japan,Relationships among global warming potential (GWP)| farmland surplus nitrogen (FSN) and income for major land uses in the Ikushunbetsu watershed were compared using the eco-balance method. An empirical model was created for carbon dioxide| methane and nitrous oxide for both uplands and paddy rice using monitoring data from 22 fields. The greenhouse gas emissions were converted into GWP| whereas yield and FSN were obtained from interviews with farmers and a literature survey. Land use distribution was obtained by ground surveys in 2002| 2005 and 2007. The analysis showed that paddy rice and soybeans were characterized by a high GWP| low FSN and high income| whereas onions and vegetables had a high FSN but low GWP and moderate income. Wheat showed a negative GWP in some years| and abandoned areas always exhibited negative values. The total GWPs for the region were 14|184| 11|085 and 8|337 Mg CO(2) year(-1) for 2002| 2005 and 2007| respectively. The contribution of paddy rice to GWP was highest| ranging from 40 to 75%. To find optimal land use combinations that provide higher incomes and lower GWPs and FSNs than at present| all possible land use combinations were analyzed by changing the land use proportion from 0 to 100% at an interval of 10%. The number of land use combinations meeting the requirements in the three investigated years was 205. Abandoned area| which had the smallest environmental load| was included in every land use combination| indicating that land uses with low environmental impacts should be maintained at a certain proportion to mitigate the environmental load accompanying land uses with high production. 11502,2010,3,4,Eco-Conservation and Healthcare Ethics: A Call to Action,Overview: I would like to thank Dr. Myles Pensak and the Triological Society for the honor of delivering the 2009 Ogura Lecture. Dr. Ogura's legacy as an innovative thinker| as a distinguished clinician-scientist| as an outstanding teacher| as a prolific author| and as a superlative leader is indeed humbling. He provided us with a gold standard of personal and professional achievement in our field| and served as a role model and source of inspiration for seeking new knowledge and new solutions to improve the lives of our patients. More specifically| Dr. Ogura made great strides in the treatment of head and neck cancer| developing many of the principles of conservation surgery of the larynx that remain the foundation of current surgical practice.
In honoring Dr. Ogura| I would like to expand upon the topic of conservation| discussing it not in the familiar context of surgical practice| but rather in the broader and much less familiar context of the role that we| as physicians| should be playing in the “greening” of our hospitals and in the global conservation movement. As physicians| we have historically considered ourselves as healers rather than “polluters|” and have upheld the Latin maxim primum non nocere (first| do no harm). We have largely focused on interventions to improve the lives of our individual patients| and have generally distanced ourselves from the problems and politics of industrial pollution and its impact both on public health and global warming.
Although we are well aware that healthcare has burgeoned into an enormous industry| we have collectively been either unaware of or indifferent to the incongruence between our guiding ethical principle of taking care not to harm patients or put them at risk| and the environmentally irresponsible behaviors that pervade an industry in which we are key players. Buildings are often old and inefficient| and too little attention is given to low-energy alternatives to medical equipment| lighting| and heating and cooling systems. Overconsumption of water generally goes unchecked. Toxic chemicals are sometimes used in cleaning| disinfection| and exterior pesticides. Often unknowingly| hospitals purchase items that are toxic and that ultimately have a negative effect on the health of patients| workers| communities| and the ecosystem. Hospitals generate thousands of tons of waste each day| including toxic materials and chemical waste. They heavily rely on the incineration of this waste| which is a major source of toxic air emissions. In essence| hospitals paradoxically enable individuals to heal| and yet often create an environment that is deleterious to public health and destructive to our ecosystem.
This paradox raises two critical questions: 1) What is the underlying function of the healthcare sector? and 2) What role should we as physicians play in effecting change? My interest in these issues was sparked several years ago during visits to the Arctic and Antarctic| where I saw the effects of pollution firsthand.
My objective today is to present information that serves as a “going green” primer for physicians. In briefly describing a number of key environmental issues| I would like to lay the foundation for further exploration of these issues. My hope is that this information elicits interest in expanding our professional role as healers| and plants the seeds of activism in environmental conservation both within and beyond the walls of our hospitals. This would be a wonderful tribute to the far-reaching impact of the Ogura lectureship.
This study reports the effect of increased CO(2) and temperature on powdery mildew (Erysiphe necatrix) of grapevine evaluated under controlled conditions. Grapevine potted plants| belonging to the cv Moscato and Barbera| were grown in phytotrons under four different simulated climatic conditions: standard CO(2) concentration for the area (450 ppm) with standard (ranging from 22 to 26 degrees C) and elevated temperature (4 degrees C higher than standard)| elevated CO(2) (800 ppm) with standard and elevated temperature. Physiological responses of grapevine and pathogen development were studied. Results showed an increase of the chlorophyll content with higher temperatures and CO(2) concentration| to which consequently corresponded an higher fluorescence index. Disease incidence did not significantly vary between cultivars. In conclusion| an increase in CO(2) did not affect powdery mildew incidence| probably due to the increased photosynthetic activity of plants under such conditions.
372,2010,2,4,Effects of elevated CO(2)| water stress| and inoculation with Glomus intraradices or Pseudomonas mendocina on lettuce dry matter and rhizosphere microbial and functional diversity under growth chamber conditions,In this study| we investigated the effects of elevated atmospheric CO(2)| drought| and inoculation with a plant-growth-promoting rhizobacterium (PGPR) or an arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungus on microbial community composition and functional diversity in the rhizosphere of Lactuca sativa L. cv. Tafalla. The experiment was a mesocosm assay| conducted as a randomized factorial design with three factors. The first factor had three levels: control soil| soil inoculated with Glomus intraradices (Schenk and Smith)| and soil inoculated with Pseudomonas mendocina Palleroni; the second one had two regimes of watering: adequate and inadequate water supply and the third factor had two concentrations of CO(2): ambient CO(2) and elevated CO(2). Six replicates per treatment were set up| making a total of 72 pots. Community structure was studied by PCR-DGGE (polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis)| and functional properties of the microbiota were investigated by community-level physiological profiling (CLPP) with Microresp (TM). DGGE banding patterns showed that water stress affected bacterial and fungal communities| while microbial inoculation had little effect. Under well-watered and normal CO(2) conditions| the fungal diversity increased clearly by PGPR and especially by AM inoculation. Elevated CO(2) concentration changed microbial communities| but did not increase the microbial diversity (Shannon diversity index (H') based on PCR-DGGE data). A principal component analysis showed a significant effect of drought stress on CLPP. The inoculation with PGPR| especially| increased the functional diversity for different guilds of carbon source. In contrast| elevated CO(2) concentration had no influence on functional diversity. Our results revealed that elevated CO(2) decreased the negative effects of drought on soil structural microbial diversity as well as plant growth but without changes in functional microbial diversity. In addition| the synergistic effect of the PGPR on growth of lettuce plants might not only result from a direct PGP effect but also from an indirect shift of the fungal community in response to elevated CO(2) under water stress conditions. 10801,2010,2,4,Effects of elevated temperature on coral reef fishes: Loss of hypoxia tolerance and inability to acclimate,Water temperature is expected to rise on coral reefs due to global warming. Here| we have examined if increased temperature reduces the hypoxia tolerance of coral reef fish (measured as critical [O(2)])| and if temperature acclimation in adults can change the resting rate of O(2) consumption and critical [O(2)]. Two common species from Lizard Island (Great Barrier Reef| Australia) were tested| Doederlein's cardinalfish (Ostorhinchus doederleini) and lemon damselfish (Pomacentrus moluccensis). In both species| a 3 degrees C rise in water temperature caused increased oxygen consumption and reduced hypoxia tolerance| changes that were not reduced by acclimation to the higher temperature for 7 to 22 days. Critical [O(2)] increased by 71% in the cardinalfish and by 23% in the damselfish at 32 degrees C compared to 29 degrees C. The higher oxygen needs are likely to reduce the aerobic scope| which could negatively affect the capacity for feeding| growth and reproduction. The reduced hypoxia tolerance may force the fishes out of their nocturnal shelters in the coral matrix| exposing them to predation. The consequences for population and species survival could be severe unless developmental phenotypic plasticity within generations or genetic adaptation between generations could produce individuals that are more tolerant to a warmer future. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 11408,2010,2,4,Effects of elevated water temperature and food availability on the reproductive performance of a coral reef fish,Climate change is predicted to increase ocean temperatures and alter plankton communities that are food for many marine fishes. To examine the effects of increased sea surface temperature and fluctuating food levels on reef-fish reproduction| breeding pairs of the coral reef damselfish Acanthochromis polyacanthus were maintained for a full summer breeding season in an orthogonal experiment comprising 3 temperature and 2 food levels. Water temperatures were the current-day average summer temperature for the collection location (28.5 degrees C) and temperatures predicted to become close to the average for this region over the next 50 to 100 yr (30.0 and 31.5 degrees C). Pairs were fed either a high or low quantity diet based on average and minimum feeding rates in the wild. Both water temperature and food supply affected reproductive output. Fewer pairs bred at elevated water temperatures and no pairs reproduced at either of the higher temperatures on the lower quantity diet. Furthermore| eggs produced were smaller at. 30.0 and 31.5 degrees C compared to those at 28.5 degrees C. Histological analysis of the gonads and steroid hormone measurement did not reveal any apparent differences in patterns of oogenesis among treatments. However| spermatogenesis was reduced at high temperatures despite sonic increases in plasma androgen levels. Reduced breeding rate at warmer temperatures combined with reduced sperm production indicates the potential for significant declines in A. polyacanthus populations as the ocean warms. 10789,2010,2,4,EFFECTS OF ENDOLITHIC BORING ON THE MUSCLE SCAR AND GROWTH OF PINK HALIOTIS CORRUGATA (GRAY 1828),In Baja California| Mexico| pink abalone (Haliotis corrugata) banks have been found to be heavily infested by endolithic (boring) organisms| which damage the shell| reduce individual growth| and| in many cases| prevent the abalone from reaching the minimum legal size of capture (140 mm). Thus| the accumulation of endolithic borings has a negative impact on the fishery. Infested shells have a different appearance from healthy shells| decreasing their ornamental value. As the size of the muscle scar of pink abalone increases with title| we assume that endolithic infestation affects individual growth and produces adults of a smaller size than normal. The correlation among the degree of muscle scar development| shell length| and percent coverage by endolithic borings was determined. We identified five stages of muscle scar development and found a significant correlation between scar stages and percentage of endolithic boring coverage and shell length. This correlation may be an indication of the profound effects that drilling organisms have on abalone growth rates. Determining the proportion of the population unable to reach the minimum legal size of capture resulting from endolithic borings will be useful in species management. It would also be useful to assess whether global warming favors greater damage to abalone shells by boring organisms and to estimate the possible consequences for the fishery. 404,2010,2,4,Effects of fire on vegetation and small mammal communities in a Mojave Desert Joshua tree woodland,Wildfire size and frequency are increasing in Mojave Desert Joshua tree woodlands principally due to anthropogenic factors. These habitats are generally considered to be fire intolerant and the effects from fire are a major concern for land managers. This study investigated trends of ecosystem response to fire by looking at a chronosequence of historic burns. Plots were chosen at 2| 9| 13| 15 19| and 65 years since burn in which to sample vegetation and rodent communities. Rodent diversity was lower in burned plots and increased over time. The abundance of rodents however| was not significantly different between the burned and unburned plots. Vegetation showed a directional change in species composition with time since fire. However| reestablished vegetation assemblages did not converge to the assumed pre-burn condition. It is probable that this difference relates to the slow rates of establishment of certain vegetation components that make up the pre-burn condition of the plots. There is a concern that invasion by exotic plant species| nitrogen deposition| and global climate change may initiate a fire cycle in this ecosystem that will arrest succession before the Joshua tree woodland is allowed to reestablish. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 11350,2010,2,3,Effects of free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) and soil warming on CH(4) emission from a rice paddy field: impact assessment and stoichiometric evaluation,Paddy fields are an important source of atmospheric CH(4)| the second most important greenhouse gas. There is a strong concern that the increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentration ([CO(2)]) and global warming are further stimulating CH4 emissions| but the magnitude of this stimulation varies substantially by study| and few open-field evaluations have been conducted. Here we report results obtained at a Japanese rice free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) site under water and soil temperature elevation during two growing seasons. Our objectives were to evaluate the effects of high [CO(2)] (ambient + 200 mu mol mol(-1)) and elevated soil temperature (+2 degrees C) on CH(4) emissions under completely open-field conditions. We found about 80% enhancement in total seasonal emissions by the additive effects of FACE and warming| indicating a strong positive feedback effect of global warming. The enhancement in CH4 emission from the FACE-effect alone (+26%) was statistically non-significant (P = 0.19). Nevertheless| observed positive correlations between CH(4) emissions and rice biomass agreed well with previous studies| suggesting that higher photosynthesis led to greater rhizodeposition| which then acted as substrates for methanogenesis. Soil warming increased the emission by 44% (P < 0.001)| which was equivalent to a Q(10) of 5.5. Increased rice biomass by warming could only partly explain the enhanced CH(4) emissions| but stoichiometric analysis of the electron budget indicated that even a moderate enhancement in organic matter decomposition due to soil warming can cause a large increase in CH(4) production under conditions where Fe(III) reduction| which was little affected by soil warming| dominates electron-accepting processes. At later rice growth stages| advanced root senescence due to elevated temperature probably provided more substrate for methanogenesis. Our stoichiometric evaluation showed that in situ Fe reduction characteristics and root turnover in response to elevated temperature should be understood to correctly predict future CH(4) emissions from paddy fields under a changing climate. Challenges remain for determination of in situ root-exudation rate and its response to FACE and warming. 11120,2010,2,4,Effects of freeze-thaw cycles on anaerobic microbial processes in an Arctic intertidal mud flat,Insight into the effects of repeated freezing and thawing on microbial processes in sediments and soils is important for understanding sediment carbon cycling at high latitudes acutely affected by global warming. Microbial responses to repeated freeze-thaw conditions were studied in three complementary experiments using arctic sediment collected from an intertidal flat that is exposed to seasonal freeze-thaw conditions (Ymerbukta| Svalbard| Arctic Ocean). The sediment was subjected to oscillating freeze-thaw incubations| either gradual| from -5 to 4 degrees C| or abrupt| from -20 to 10 degrees C. Concentrations of low-molecular weight carboxylic acids (volatile fatty acids) were measured and sulfate reduction was assessed by measuring (35)S sulfate reduction rates (SRRs). Gradual freeze-thaw incubation decreased microbial activity in the frozen state to 0.25 % of initial levels at 4 degrees C| but activity resumed rapidly reaching >60 % of initial activity in the thawed state. Exposure of sediments to successive large temperature changes (-20 versus 10 degrees C) decreased SRR by 80% of the initial activity| suggesting that a fraction of the bacterial community recovered rapidly from extreme temperature fluctuations. This is supported by 16S rRNA gene-based denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis profiles that revealed persistence of the dominant microbial taxa under repeated freeze-thaw cycles. The fast recovery of the SRRs suggests that carbon mineralization in thawing arctic sediment can resume without delay or substantial growth of microbial populations. The ISME Journal (2010) 4| 585-594; doi:10.1038/ismej.2009.140; published online 24 December 2009 10716,2010,4,2,Effects of global warming on wind energy availability,The use of wind energy reduces our greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. In this study| we proposed a generic power-law relationship between global warming and the usable wind energy (Betz's law). The power law index (similar to 4| region dependent) is then determined using simulated atmospheric parameters from eight global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models (CGCMs). It is found that the power-law relationship holds across all eight climate models and also is time scale independent. Reduction of wind power scales with the degree of warming according to a generic power-law relationship. Thus| the earlier we switch to clean energy| and thereby decrease the global climate warming trend| the more cost-effective will be the harnessing of wind energy. This relationship is an area-averaged consequence of the reduced poleward temperature gradient as the climate warms during the 21st Century; it does not imply spatial uniformity over a region of interest. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3486072] 11074,2010,2,3,Effects of interactive global changes on methane uptake in an annual grassland,The future size of the terrestrial methane (CH(4)) sink of upland soils remains uncertain| along with potential feedbacks to global warming. Much of the uncertainty lies in our lack of knowledge about potential interactive effects of multiple simultaneous global environmental changes. Field CH(4) fluxes and laboratory soil CH(4) consumption were measured five times during 3 consecutive years in a California annual grassland exposed to 8 years of the full factorial combination of ambient and elevated levels of precipitation| temperature| atmospheric CO(2) concentration| and N deposition. Across all sampling dates and treatments| increased precipitation caused a 61% reduction in field CH(4) uptake. However| this reduction depended quantitatively on other global change factors. Higher precipitation reduced CH(4) uptake when temperature or N deposition (but not both) increased| and under elevated CO(2) but only late in the growing season. Warming alone also decreased CH(4) uptake early in the growing season| which was partly explained by a decrease in laboratory soil CH(4) consumption. Atmospheric CH(4) models likely need to incorporate nonadditive interactions| seasonal interactions| and interactions between methanotrophy and methanogenesis. Despite the complexity of interactions we observed in this multifactor experiment| the outcome agrees with results from single-factor experiments: an increased terrestrial CH(4) sink appears less likely than a reduced one. 10710,2010,3,4,Effects of liquid antistrip additives on rheology and moisture susceptibility of water bearing warm mixtures,Warm mix asphalt (WMA) has been gaining increasing popularity in recent years around the world. Rising energy prices| global warming| and more stringent environmental regulations have resulted in an interest in WMA technologies as a mean to decrease the energy consumption and emissions. However| the water absorption and release process caused by water bearing WMA additive (Asphamin) makes the charge re-distribution complex and thus may result in the moisture induced damage of asphalt mixtures. Especially| the liquid antistrip additives (ASAs) blended with the binder and then mixed with aggregate and Asphamin make the issue more complicated. The objective of this study was to investigate and evaluate the rheological properties and moisture susceptibility of the binder and mixture containing ASAs and Asphamin additive. The experimental design for this study included rheological property tests of binders and moisture susceptibility of mixtures. The materials included one binder (PG 64-16)| two liquid ASAs and hydrated lime| one water bearing additive| and three aggregate sources. The performed testing included viscosity| performance grade| creep and creep recovery| amplitude sweep| frequency sweep| boiling test| and indirect tensile strength (ITS). The results indicated that the addition of Asphamin can slightly increase the viscosity| failure temperature and G(+)/sin delta values. The mixture containing Asphamin has a lower ITS value than others. Statistical analysis illustrates that there is not significant difference in ITS value between any mixtures containing Asphamin additive and control mixtures. However| significant differences can be found between mixtures containing Asphamin and without any Asphamin additive. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 689,2010,2,4,Effects of low temperature on the schistosome-transmitting snail Oncomelania hupensis and the implications of global climate change,The impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years. As the intermediate hosts for schistosomes| snails play an obligatory role in schistosomiasis transmission. In order to determine the impact of low temperature on snail survival| we studied crystallization temperature (Tc) and lower lethal temperature (LLT) of the snail Oncomelania hupensis| the intermediate host of human blood fluke Schistosoma japonicum| under different physiological conditions. The mean T c of 'dry' snails was -12.79 +/- 1.17 degrees C| which is significantly lower than that of 'wet' snails (-5.36 +/- 2.11 degrees C). Survival of 'dry' snails was high (92% after 24 h) when the temperature was higher than -7 degrees C| then decreased rapidly between -7 degrees C and -12 degrees C (92% to 0% after 24h). LT(50) between 0.25 h and 24 h exposure was between -10.8 degrees C and -9.4 degrees C. Our data suggest that O. hupensis out of water could be avoiding freezing. As winter temperatures continue to rise due to global warming| O. hupensis may increase its range| thereby spreading schistosomiasis to the northern part of China. 640,2010,2,4,Effects of More Frequent and Prolonged El Nino Events on Life-History Parameters of the Degu| a Long-Lived and Slow-Reproducing Rodent,Global climate change (GCC) can have profound effects on species whose ecology is governed primarily by climatic factors. The ecology of small mammals inhabiting semiarid Chile is strongly affected by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During La Nina events in this area| dry conditions prevail and species may disappear from the thorn-scrub habitat. Conversely| El Nino events bring high rainfall| and associated pulses of food trigger small-mammal population increases. We used capture-mark-recapture to study responses of the degu (Octodon degus)| a dominant small mammal| to variation in rainfall over 18 years. In response to a recent trend toward wetter conditions| degus reached record-high densities and maintained more stable numbers in the area. Underlying mechanisms involved variation in adult survival| juvenile persistence| and fecundity linked to rainfall changes during consecutive years (i.e.| rainfall phases). During prolonged droughts| degus had low survival and produced fewer offspring| with low persistence. Following high rainfall| these parameters reversed; consecutive wet years resulted in further increases. Weak declines in fecundity and adult survival and high persistence of juveniles explained delayed responses to deteriorating conditions in initial dry years. If GCC leads to increased frequency of El Nino events| we anticipate greater numerical dominance of degus in semiarid Chile and possible range expansion. Furthermore| degus have strong impacts on other small mammal and some plant species| are important prey species| and are agricultural pests and disease reservoirs. Hence| GCC has the potential to dramatically influence their ecology in northern Chile and to have cascading effects on other components of this system. 10824,2010,2,2,Effects of nutritional condition on spring migration: do migrants use resource availability to keep pace with a changing world?,Because of their reliance on temporally predictable resources across large spatial scales| migratory birds may be especially vulnerable to anthropogenic climate and land-use changes. Although some long-distance migrants appear unable to adjust to phenological shifts on their wintering grounds| several short-and medium-distance migrants appear to have altered the timing and/or distance of their yearly movements to compensate for the environmental effects of global warming. Which environmental cues are responsible for stimulating these adjustments is an unanswered question| although most studies have focused on weather conditions. Here| we present a novel field experiment that demonstrates that an alternative cue| food availability| may be a crucial link between local conditions on the wintering grounds and the timing of spring departure. When we provided dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis) with an abundant food supply in early spring| we observed an advance in migration| especially among individuals that increased their mass and fat stores in response to the treatment. This finding indicates a simple mechanism by which short-distance migrants may calibrate their migration behavior such that arrival on the breeding grounds and initiation of reproduction are in sync with resource availability. 10698,2010,2,4,Effects of ocean acidification and high temperatures on the bryozoan Myriapora truncata at natural CO(2) vents,There are serious concerns that ocean acidification will combine with the effects of global warming to cause major shifts in marine ecosystems| but there is a lack of field data on the combined ecological effects of these changes due to the difficulty of creating large-scale| long-term exposures to elevated CO(2) and temperature. Here we report the first coastal transplant experiment designed to investigate the effects of naturally acidified seawater on the rates of net calcification and dissolution of the branched calcitic bryozoan Myriapora truncata (Pallas| 1766). Colonies were transplanted to normal (pH 8.1)| high (mean pH 7.66| minimum value 7.33) and extremely high CO(2) conditions (mean pH 7.43| minimum value 6.83) at gas vents off Ischia Island (Tyrrhenian Sea| Italy). The net calcification rates of live colonies and the dissolution rates of dead colonies were estimated by weighing after 45 days (May-June 2008) and after 128 days (July-October) to examine the hypothesis that high CO(2) levels affect bryozoan growth and survival differently during moderate and warm water conditions. In the first observation period| seawater temperatures ranged from 19 to 24 degrees C; dead M. truncata colonies dissolved at high CO(2) levels (pH 7.66)| whereas live specimens maintained the same net calcification rate as those growing at normal pH. In extremely high CO(2) conditions (mean pH 7.43)| the live bryozoans calcified significantly less than those at normal pH. Therefore| established colonies of M. truncata seem well able to withstand the levels of ocean acidification predicted in the next 200 years| possibly because the soft tissues protect the skeleton from an external decrease in pH. However| during the second period of observation a prolonged period of high seawater temperatures (25-28 degrees C) halted calcification both in controls and at high CO(2)| and all transplants died when high temperatures were combined with extremely high CO(2) levels. Clearly| attempts to predict the future response of organisms to ocean acidification need to consider the effects of concurrent changes such as the Mediterranean trend for increased summer temperatures in surface waters. Although M. truncata was resilient to short-term exposure to high levels of ocean acidification at normal temperatures| our field transplants showed that its ability to calcify at higher temperatures was compromised| adding it to the growing list of species now potentially threatened by global warming. 11400,2010,2,4,Effects of ocean acidification and warming on the larval development of the spider crab Hyas araneus from different latitudes (54 degrees vs. 79 degrees N),The combined effects of predicted ocean acidification and global warming on the larvae of the cold-eurythermal spider crab Hyas araneus L. were investigated in 2 populations: a southern-most around Helgoland (North Sea| 54 degrees N) and a northernmost at Svalbard (North Atlantic| 79 degrees N). Larvae were exposed at temperatures of 3| 9 and 15 degrees C to present day normocapnia (380 ppm CO(2)) and to CO(2) conditions predicted for the near or medium-term future (710 ppm by the year 2100| 3000 ppm by 2300 and beyond). Larval development time| growth and C/N ratio were studied in the larval stages Zoea I| II| and Megalopa. Permanent differences in instar duration between both populations were detected in all stages| likely as a result of evolutionary temperature adaptation. With the exception of Zoea II at 3 degrees C and under all CO(2) conditions| development in all instars from Svalbard was delayed compared to those from Helgoland. Most prominently| development was much longer and fewer specimens morphosed to the first crab instar in the Megalopa from Svalbard than from Helgoland. Enhanced CO(2) levels (particularly 3000 ppm) extended the duration of larval development and reduced larval growth (measured as dry mass) and fitness (decreasing C/N ratio| a proxy of the lipid content). Such effects were strongest in the zoeal stages of Svalbard larvae| and during the Megalopa instar of Helgoland larvae. The high sensitivity of megalopae from the Svalbard population to warming and of those from Helgoland to enhanced CO(2) levels suggests that this larval instar is a physiologically sensitive bottleneck within the life cycle of H. araneus. 457,2010,4,4,Effects of open-top chambers on physical properties of air and soil at post-disturbance sites in northwestern Quebec,Ecosystem responses to current global climate change can be predicted through experimental climate simulations. One such simulation method is the open-top chamber (OTC). The effects of OTCs on environmental factors are potentially complex| and recognizing the numerous interactions among these factors is crucial for the proper use of chambers. We studied the effects of OTCs on microclimatic factors including ambient temperature| relative humidity| soil temperature| and soil moisture. Plant abundance responses were also assessed. Our study involved the construction of 20 OTCs (1 m in diameter and 0.75 m in height; made of clear acrylic plastic) and 20 control plots on substrates with and without Sphagnum moss| at post-fire and logging sites of the transitional mixedwood-boreal forest in the southern part of James Bay region| Quebec. Experimental trials were also conducted to test the effects of OTCs on snowmelt in the Montreal region. Our results suggest that OTC treatment is most evident in terms of increased daytime maximum temperatures (2A degrees C to 3A degrees C)| and cooler (up to similar to 2.4A degrees C)| drier (up to 10% volumetric moisture content) soils. Advanced thawing of the insulating snow cover and exposure of soil in the OTCs to low spring temperatures appeared to prolong soil freeze and result in cooler soils. Earlier snowmelt probably also led to earlier onset and overall increased evaporation of meltwater in the OTCs| leading to drier soils. Plant abundance responses to OTC treatment differed depending on plant species. Overall| open-top chambers provide an effective and simple method of climate change simulation| but it is highly advisable that the complex interactive effects| both desired and undesired| are well understood and appreciated before using OTCs for experimental climate simulation. 11285,2010,3,4,Effects of organic matter incorporation on nitrous oxide emissions from rice-wheat rotation ecosystems in China,Organic matter addition is thought to be an important regulator of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from croplands. Contradictory effects| however| were reported in previous studies. To investigate the effects of crop residue management on N(2)O emissions from rice-wheat rotation ecosystems| we conducted field experiments at three sites (Suzhou| Wuxi and Jiangdu) in the Yangtze River Delta| using static chamber and gas chromatography methods. Our data show that N(2)O emissions throughout the rice season from plots treated with wheat straw application at a high rate (WS) prior to rice transplanting (1.1-2.0 kg N ha(-1)) were significantly lower (P < 0.05) than those from the control plots without organic matter addition or added with wheat straw at a moderate rate (1.6-2.9 kg N ha(-1)). Furthermore| the WS treatments had a residual inhibitory effect on N(2)O emissions in the following non-rice season| which consistently resulted in significantly lower emissions (P < 0.05) compared to the control treatments (2.2-3.1 vs. 3.9-5.6 kg N ha(-1)). In comparison to the control treatments| the WS treatments reduced both the seasonal and annual direct emission factors of the applied nitrogen (EF(d)) by 50-68% (mean: 57%). The addition of compost (aerobically composted rice or wheat straw harvested in the last rotation) reduced the seasonal and annual EF(d)s by 29-32%. Over the entire rice-wheat rotation cycle| annual N(2)O emissions from the fertilized fields at the three sites ranged from 3.3 +/- 0.3 to 16.8 +/- 0.6 kg N ha(-1)| with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 61%. Similarly| the EF(d)s during the rice-wheat rotation cycle ranged from 0.4% to 2.5%| with a CV of 67%. These high spatial variations might have been related to: variations in soil properties| such as texture and soil organic carbon; management practices| such as straw treatments (i.e.| compost versus fresh straw) and weather conditions| such as precipitation and rainfall distribution. Our results indicate that the incorporation of fresh wheat straw at a high rate during the rice season is an effective management practice for the mitigation of N(2)O emissions in rice-wheat rotation systems. Whether this practice is also effective in reducing the overall global warming potential of net N(2)O| CH(4) and CO(2) emissions needs to be seen through further studies. 11015,2010,2,2,Effects of pH on asexual reproduction and statolith formation of the scyphozoan| Aurelia labiata,Although anthropogenic influences such as global warming| overfishing| and eutrophication may contribute to jellyfish blooms| little is known about the effects of ocean acidification on jellyfish. Most medusae form statoliths of calcium sulfate hemihydrate that are components of their balance organs (statocysts). This study was designed to test the effects of pH (7.9| within the average current range| 7.5| expected by 2100| and 7.2| expected by 2300) combined with two temperatures (9 and 15A degrees C) on asexual reproduction and statolith formation of the moon jellyfish| Aurelia labiata. Polyp survival was 100% after 122 d in seawater in all six temperature and pH combinations. Because few polyps at 9A degrees C strobilated| and temperature effects on budding were consistent with published results| we did not analyze data from those three treatments further. At 15A degrees C| there were no significant effects of pH on the numbers of ephyrae or buds produced per polyp or on the numbers of statoliths per statocyst; however| statolith size was significantly smaller in ephyrae released from polyps reared at low pH. Our results indicate that A. labiata polyps are quite tolerant of low pH| surviving and reproducing asexually even at the lowest tested pH; however| the effects of small statoliths on ephyra fitness are unknown. Future research on the behavior of ephyrae with small statoliths would further our understanding of how ocean acidification may affect jellyfish survival in nature. 10490,2010,5,4,Effects of Rapid Global Warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary on Neotropical Vegetation,Temperatures in tropical regions are estimated to have increased by 3 degrees to 5 degrees C| compared with Late Paleocene values| during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM| 56.3 million years ago) event. We investigated the tropical forest response to this rapid warming by evaluating the palynological record of three stratigraphic sections in eastern Colombia and western Venezuela. We observed a rapid and distinct increase in plant diversity and origination rates| with a set of new taxa| mostly angiosperms| added to the existing stock of low-diversity Paleocene flora. There is no evidence for enhanced aridity in the northern Neotropics. The tropical rainforest was able to persist under elevated temperatures and high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide| in contrast to speculations that tropical ecosystems were severely compromised by heat stress. 10527,2010,2,4,Effects of retrogressive permafrost thaw slumping on sediment chemistry and submerged macrophytes in Arctic tundra lakes,P>1. Global warming is predicted to cause changes in permafrost cover and stability in the Arctic. Zones of high ion concentration in regions of ice-rich permafrost are a reservoir of chemicals that can potentially be transferred to fresh waters during thawing. Consequently| input of enriched runoff from the thaw and sediment and vegetation from the landscape could alter lakes by affecting their geochemistry and biological production. 2. Three undisturbed lakes and five lakes disturbed by retrogressive permafrost thaw slumps were sampled during late summer of 2006 to assess the potential effects of thermokarst shoreline slumping on water and sediment chemistry| the underwater light regime| and benthic macrophyte biomass and community structure. 3. Undisturbed lakes had sediments rich in organic material and selected micronutrients| while disturbed lakes had sediments richer in calcium| magnesium and strontium| greater transparency of the water column| and a well-developed submerged macrophyte community. 4. It is postulated that enriched runoff chemistry may alter nutrient availability at the sediment-water interface and also the degradation of organic material| thus affecting lake transparency and submerged macrophytes. The results suggest that retrogressive permafrost slumping can significantly affect food webs in arctic tundra lakes through an increase in macrophyte biomass and development of a more complex benthic habitat. 651,2010,4,4,Effects of soil conditions and drought on egg hatching and larval survival of the clover root weevil (Sitona lepidus),Soil-dwelling insect herbivores are significant pests in many managed ecosystems. Because eggs and larvae are difficult to observe| mathematical models have been developed to predict life-cycle events occurring in the soil. To date| these models have incorporated very little empirical information about how soil and drought conditions interact to shape these processes. This study investigated how soil temperature (10| 15| 20 and 25 degrees C)| water content (0.02 (air dried)| 0.10 and 0.25 g g(-1)) and pH (5| 7 and 9) interactively affected egg hatching and early larval lifespan of the clover root weevil (Sitona lepidus Gyllenhal| Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Eggs developed over 3.5 times faster at 25 degrees C compared with 10 degrees C (hatching after 40.1 and 11.5 days| respectively). The effect of drought on S. lepidus eggs was investigated by exposing eggs to drought conditions before wetting the soil (2-12 days later) at four temperatures. No eggs hatched in dry soil| suggesting that S. lepidus eggs require water to remain viable. Eggs hatched significantly sooner in slightly acidic soil (pH 5) compared with soils with higher pH values. There was also a significant interaction between soil temperature| pH and soil water content. Egg viability was significantly reduced by exposure to drought. When exposed to 2-6 days of drought| egg viability was 80-100% at all temperatures but fell to 50% after 12 days exposure at 10 degrees C and did not hatch at all at 20 degrees C and above. Drought exposure also increased hatching time of viable eggs. The effects of soil conditions on unfed larvae were less influential| except for soil temperature which significantly reduced larval longevity by 57% when reared at 25 degrees C compared with 10 degrees C (4.1 and 9.7 days| respectively). The effects of soil conditions on S. lepidus eggs and larvae are discussed in the context of global climate change and how such empirically based information could be useful for refining existing mathematical models of these processes. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11509,2010,2,4,Effects of soil freeze-thaw cycles differ between experimental plant communities,Soil freeze thaw cycles (FTC) influence nutrient cycling| but their consequences for productivity and composition of vegetation are not well investigated. Ongoing global warming will increase the recurrence of FTC in cool-temperate and high-latitude regions. Here| we report on the above- and belowground biomass production as well as the nitrogen nutrition of two common vegetation types| grassland and heath| after more frequent FTC in a controlled field experiment in Central Europe. Furthermore| we analyze the duration of the observed effects. Five FTC were induced by buried heating wires in addition to three naturally occurring FTC during winter 2005/06. More frequent FTC significantly increased aboveground production of experimental grassland early in the following growing season. However| no reaction was found for experimental heath within the first growing season. Biomass production of heath communities dropped significantly and C/N ratio increased in the freeze thaw treated plots in the second year after the manipulation| whereas production in the grassland communities was no longer affected significantly| except for an increase in C/N ratio. This response can at least partly be explained by changes in nutrient availability| as plant available nitrate increased in the manipulated grassland plots and decreased in the manipulated heath plots. The results show the high ecological importance of climate changes during winter| with the outcomes differing strongly between contrasting vegetation types. Furthermore| we show that short term climatic events can cause long-lasting effects| sometimes emerging in the vegetation only after considerable time lags (here: one growing season). (C) 2009 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier Gmbh. All rights reserved. 681,2010,2,4,Effects of solar radiation on barnacle settlement| early post-settlement mortality and community development in the intertidal zone,We examined the role of solar radiation| and particularly the role of ultraviolet radiation (UVR)| in regulating small-scale settlement patterns and early post-settlement mortality in the barnacle Balanus glandula| as well as community development of sessile organisms colonizing the upper mid-intertidal zone. Settlement of B. glandula cyprids was similar in treatments with and without UVR| suggesting that UVR does not directly influence site selection by cyprids. Once attached| mortality during the 1 to 2 d period from attachment to metamorphosis ranged from 60 to 100%| and half of the settlers that did metamorphose died during the following 5 d. Mortality during the period from attachment to metamorphosis was significantly lower in locations protected from UVR than in locations exposed to the full spectrum of solar radiation| but only by ca. 10%. Furthermore| UVR exposure had no detectable effect on the mortality rate of metamorphosed early juveniles. Ambient UVR levels also appear to have had little effect on the colonization of mid-intertidal habitats by sessile organisms: our study locations were colonized by 2 sessile invertebrate species and 2 algal species over a period of 2.5 mo in mid-summer| and densities of these species were similar in treatments with and without UVR. Nevertheless| solar radiation dose explained 43 to 65% of the variation in mortality among daily cohorts of B. glandula| and daily cohort mortality was often 100% during periods with the highest doses. This relationship between solar radiation and survival to metamorphosis was likely due to the effect of solar radiation on desiccation and heat stress. The high sensitivity of early post-settlement mortality rates to solar radiation suggests global climate change may significantly alter patterns of survivorship through this critical stage of life. 495,2010,2,4,EFFECTS OF STREAM FLOW PATTERNS ON RIPARIAN VEGETATION OF A SEMIARID RIVER: IMPLICATIONS FOR A CHANGING CLIMATE,As global climate change affects recharge and runoff processes| stream flow regimes are being altered. In the American Southwest| increasing aridity is predicted to cause declines in stream base flows and water tables. Another potential outcome of climate change is increased flood intensity. Changes in these stream flow conditions may independently affect vegetation or may have synergistic effects. Our goal was to extrapolate vegetation response to climate-linked stream flow changes| by taking advantage of the spatial variation in flow conditions over a 200 km length of the San Pedro River (Arizona). Riparian vegetation traits were contrasted between sites differing in low-flow hydrology (degree of stream intermittency) and flood intensity (stream power of the 10-year recurrence flood). Field data indicate that increased stream intermittency would cause the floodplain plant community to shift from hydric pioneer trees and shrubs (Populus| Salix| Baccharis) towards mesic species (Tamarix). This shift in functional type would produce changes in vegetation structure| with reduced canopy cover and shorter canopies at drier sites. Among herbaceous species| annuals would increase while perennials would decrease. If flood intensities increased| there would be shifts towards younger tree age| expansion of xeric pioneer shrubs (in response to flood-linked edaphic changes)| and replacement of herbaceous perennials by annuals. Woody stem density would increase and basal area would decrease| reflecting shifts towards younger forests. Some effects would be compounded: Annuals were most prevalent| and tree canopies shortest| at sites that were dry and intensely flooded. Vegetational changes would feedback onto hydrologic and geomorphic processes| of importance for modeling. Increased flood intensity would have positive feedback on disturbance processes| by shifting plant communities towards species with less ability to stabilize sediments. Feedbacks between riparian vegetation and stream low-flow changes would be homeostatic| with reduced evapotranspiration rates ameliorating declines in base flows arising from increased aridity. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 11268,2010,2,4,Effects of temperature and growth hormone on individual growth trajectories of wild-type and transgenic coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch,In this study| individual growth patterns of wild-type and growth-enhanced coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch at 8| 12 and 16 degrees C water temperature were followed. Despite large differences among individuals in growth rates| there was generally little variation in the shape of the growth curves among O. kisutch individuals of both genotypes and at all temperatures. Typically| individuals that were relatively large initially were also relatively large at the end of the growth period. The limitation in variation was more pronounced in the growth-enhanced O. kisutch than in the wild type| where the relative size of some individuals reared at 12 and 8 degrees C changed by the end of the trial. As a warmer temperature seems to decrease the plasticity of growth trajectories in wild-type fish| it is possible that global warming will influence the ability of wild fish to adapt their growth to changing conditions. 10939,2010,2,4,Effects of temperature and hydric environment on survival of the Panamanian Golden Frog infected with a pathogenic chytrid fungus,Considerable controversy exists concerning whether or not climate changes (particularly global warming) are causing outbreaks of a lethal amphibian pathogen| the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Longcore| Pessier & D.K. Nichols 1999). In the present study| groups of Panamanian golden frogs (Atelopus zeteki Dunn| 1993)| a critically endangered amphibian thought to be nearly extinct in Panama| were exposed to varying dosages of zoospores of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis| temperatures and hydric environments in order to learn whether this species is susceptible to this pathogen and| if so| how environmental factors affect survival. This pathogen proved to be highly lethal for A. zeteki. Frogs exposed to a dosage of 100 Bd zoospores survived significantly (P < 0.0001) longer than those that had been exposed to 104 or 106 zoospores. Exposed frogs housed at 23 degrees C survived significantly (P < 0.0001) longer than those that were housed at 17 degrees C. Exposed frogs held in dry conditions survived significantly longer than those in wet conditions (P < 0.0001). As a laboratory study| these results do not directly test hypotheses about the relation between climate change and the decline of these frogs in the field| but they inform the discussion about how environmental conditions can have an impact on the interaction between a susceptible amphibian and this pathogen. These data do not support the contention that rising global temperatures are necessary to cause the death of amphibians infected with this pathogen because the pathogen was equally lethal at 17 as at 23 degrees C| and frogs at the warmer temperature lived significantly longer than those at the cooler one. 11405,2010,2,4,Effects of temperature and population density on von Bertalanffy growth parameters in Atlantic herring: a macro-ecological analysis,The effect of temperature and population density on the growth of Atlantic herring Clupea harengus was studied using a comparative approach applied to 15 North Atlantic populations. The von Bertalanffy (VB) equation was applied to describe mean growth of individuals in each population| both averaged over the whole period studied and for each cohort. Water temperature was a determinant factor for herring growth at the species level: North Atlantic herring in cold water areas exhibited a lower growth coefficient (k)| longer lifespan and a higher asymptotic weight (w(inf)) than those living in warmer water. The average w(inf) of herring was positively correlated to the density of biomass of that population. This relationship was most likely due to the negative correlation found between population density and mean temperature. At the within-population level| when looking at the temporal variability in growth parameters amongst cohorts| w(inf) was still negatively correlated to temperature| but the positive correlation between k and temperature was no longer significant. In a single population| the temperature range is probably too narrow to have an identifiable effect on growth. The effect may be confounded by other factors such as density dependence. On the basis of this macroecological pattern| global warming should enhance growth of the youngest age-classes| but reduce the growth of older individuals and shorten the lifespan of herring. 11224,2010,2,4,Effects of temperature extremes on daily mortality in Castile-La Mancha (Spain): trends from 1975 to 2003,Objectives: To determine time trends and the geographical distribution of mortality trigger temperature thresholds due to extreme temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (central Spain) between 1975 and 2003. Methods: The analysis was divided into three periods (1975 - 1984| 1985 - 1994 and 1995 - 2003) for each province of the region. Daily mortality due to organic causes (dependent variable) was modelled using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) procedures. The resulting residual series was related to the maximum temperature series grouped in 2 degrees C intervals to obtain a threshold temperature for cold or heat when the residuals rose significantly (p < 0|05) above the mean residual mortality value of the corresponding study period. Results: Mortality trigger temperature thresholds decreased over time in Castile-La Mancha. In Toledo| the trigger temperature diminished from 40 degrees C to 38 degrees C. In Cuenca and Guadalajara| threshold temperatures for heat events were obtained in the last few decades but not in the first. These thresholds varied from the 92nd percentile in Cuenca to the 98th percentile in Albacete in the last decade. No threshold temperatures for cold spells were observed in any province or period. Conclusions: Castile-La Mancha registered an upward trend in the relationship between high temperatures and mortality| probably due to population aging. This trend could have been influenced by the increased frequency of extremely hot days. Prevention plans should be periodically reviewed. (C) 2009 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana| S.L. All rights reserved. 585,2010,2,4,Effects of temperature| salinity| and pH on the survival and activity of marine cercariae,Alterations of abiotic factors due to global climate change are predicted to impact disease dynamics| particularly for pathogens with complex life cycles involving free-living infectious stages| such as the cercariae of trematode parasites. Previous investigations of cercarial output| longevity| and infectivity suggest an overall increase in trematode transmission in response to elevated temperature. However| while increased temperature will likely be accompanied by changes in salinity and pH in marine ecosystems| little is known regarding their influence on cercariae. We investigated the response of trematode cercariae of the intertidal horn snail Cerithidea californica to altered temperature| salinity| and pH. The survival and activity of one trematode species| Euhaplorchis californiensis (Heterophydae)| appears to be largely unaffected by increased temperature| while that of a second species| Acanthoparyphium spinulosum (Echinostomatidae)| decreased at the warmer temperature (25A degrees C). Cercariae of E. californiensis generally fared best at the highest salinity (40 ppt)| whereas A. spinulosum showed the opposite effect. Neither species was affected by pH alone although there were interactions with salinity and time. These results may reflect different emergence patterns of the two species and demonstrate that trematode parasitism in intertidal zones may be impacted by alterations of the marine environment resulting from climate change. 10514,2010,2,4,Effects of Tibetan hulless barley on bloom-forming cyanobacterium (Microcystis aeruginosa) measured by different physiological and morphologic parameters,The current trend of global warming is expected to stimulate the expansion of harmful cyanobacteria blooms. Previously| the occidental type of barley straw has been used to control blooms in Europe and America| but very little is known about the antialgal abilities of its oriental relative. We tested the use of Tibetan hulless barley straw - the progenitor of oriental barley - to inhibit the growth of cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa. Flow cytometry allowed assessment at single-cell level| with morphologic parameters (cell volume| cell membrane integrity) and physiological parameters (in vivo Chlorophyll a fluorescence| metabolic activity) used as endpoints. The reduction of cell densities together with integrated cell membranes suggests that Tibetan barley may act as an algistatic agent. Doses from 2.0 to 8.0 g L(-1) of Tibetan barley straw efficiently inhibited the alga| but these doses were much higher than those of occidental barley. Such a large dosage introduced additional nutrients| which stimulated the intracellular metabolic activity and induced two physiological subpopulations in the acute term. After mid and long-term exposure| the growth inhibition effect exceeded the stimulation effect| so that the cells' metabolic activity and Chlorophyll a fluorescence decayed| simultaneously with shrinkage in the algal cell volume. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 570,2010,2,4,Effects of urbanization on flowering phenology in the metropolitan phoenix region of USA: Findings from herbarium records,Phenological studies have become more prominent recently because of rising interests in understanding how plants| communities| and ecosystems respond to global climate change and urban climate modifications. Herbarium records of plants can be a particularly useful source of information for studying historical trends in phenology in areas where long-term phenological records do not exist. In this study| we used herbarium records to examine the historical patterns of flowering phenology of 87 shrubs and ephemerals in the Phoenix metropolitan region in the southwestern United States from 1902 through 2006. We found that 19% of plant species examined either advanced or delayed their flowering. Also| the flowering responses of 28% of the species examined showed significant differences between urban and non-urban areas: 24% advanced in urban areas and 5% delayed. Our study indicates that urbanization may have a significant effect on the flowering phenology of a small but substantial proportion of plants| which will likely affect native biological diversity and ecosystem services due to potential changes in population and community dynamics. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11192,2010,3,3,Effects of US Maize Ethanol on Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimating Market-mediated Responses,Releases of greenhouse gases (GHG) from indirect land-use change triggered by crop-based biofuels hate taken center stage in the debate over the role of biofuels in climate policy and energy security. This article analyzes these releases for maize ethanol produced in the United States. Factoring market-mediated responses and by-product use into our analysis reduces cropland conversion by 72% from the land used for the ethanol feedstock. Consequently; the associated GHG release estimated in our framework is 800 grants of carbon dioxide per megajoule (MJ); 27 grants per MJ per year| over 30 years of ethanol production| or roughly a quarter of the only other published estimate of releases attributable to changes in indirect land use. Nonetheless| 800 grants are enough to cancel out the benefits that corn ethanol has on global warming| thereby limiting its potential contribution in the context of California's Low| Carbon Fuel Standard. 593,2010,2,4,Effects of vegetation restoration and slope positions on soil aggregation and soil carbon accumulation on heavily eroded tropical land of Southern China,Soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation is strongly affected by soil erosion and deposition that differ at slope positions of a watershed. However| studies on the effects of topography on soil aggregation and SOC dynamics| especially after the implementation of vegetation restoration| are rare. Poorly understood mechanisms and a lack of quantification for the suite of ecological benefits brought by the impacts of topography after planting further obstructed our understanding of terrestrial ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration. The purposes of this study are to (1) quantify the impacts of vegetation restoration on size and stability of soil aggregates and the sequestration of C in soil and (2) to address the impacts of various slope locations on aggregates and SOC distribution. The experimental sites were set up in 1959 on a highly disturbed barren land in a tropical and coastal area of Guangdong province in South China. One site received human-induced vegetation restoration (the restored site)| while the other received no planting and has remained as barren land (the barren site). The soil in the study sites was a latosol developed from granite. Soil samples were taken from 0 to 20 and 20 to 40 cm soil layer at shoulder and toe slope positions at both sites for comparisons. Soils were analyzed for proportion of soil macroaggregates (> 0.25 mm)| the SOC in soil layers| and the aggregate soil organic carbon (AOC) at different aggregate sizes. Measurements in 2007 showed that fractions of water stable macroaggregates in 0-40 cm at shoulder and toe slope ranged from 28% to 45%| about one third to one half of those of dry macroaggregates (91-95%) at the restored site. Soil macroaggregates were not detected at barren site in 2007. Average SOC storage in 0-40 cm soil layer of shoulder and toe slope positions at the restored site was 56.5 +/- 10.9 Mg C ha(-1)| about 2.4 times of that (23.4 +/- 4.6 Mg C ha(-1)) at barren site in 2007. Since 1959| the soil aggregation and SOC storage are significantly improved at the restored site; opposite to that| soil physical and chemical quality has remained low on the barren land without planting. SOC storage in 0-40 cm at toe slope was 15.9 +/- 1.8 Mg C ha(-1)| which is only half of that (30.9 +/- 9 Mg C ha(-1)) at shoulder slope of the barren site; this is opposite to the pattern found at restored site. The ratios of AOC in 0-20 cm to AOC in 20-40 cm at toe slope were lower than those at shoulder slope of the restored site. The comparison of organic carbon sequestered in soils at different slope positions suggest that soil aggregates played a role in sequestering C based upon landscape positions and soil profile depth as a consequence of soil erosion and deposition. Results indicate that vegetation restoration and SOC accumulation significantly enhance soil aggregation| which in turn promotes further organic C accumulation in the aggregates via physical protection. Soil aggregation and soil C accumulation differed between slope positions. Soil aggregation was significantly enhanced in 0-20 cm layer and aggregates absorb C into deep layers in depositional environment (toe slope) under protection from human disturbances. The interactions of erosion-deposition| soil aggregates| and vegetation restoration play important roles on SOC accumulation and redistribution on land. The positive feedback between SOC and soil aggregates should be evaluated for improving the quantification of the impacts of land use change| erosion| and deposition on the dynamics of SOC and soil structure under the global climate change. 10944,2010,2,4,Effects of warming and grazing on N(2)O fluxes in an alpine meadow ecosystem on the Tibetan plateau,A great deal of uncertainty is associated with estimates of global nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions because emissions from arid and polar climates were not included in the estimates due to a lack of available data. In particular| very few studies have assessed the response of N(2)O flux to grazing under future warming conditions. This experiment was conducted to determine the effects of warming and grazing on N(2)O flux at different time scales for three years under a controlled warming-grazing system. A free-air temperature enhancement system (FATE) using infrared heaters and grazing significantly increased soil temperatures for both of growing (average 1.8 degrees C in 2008) and no-growing seasons (average 3.0 degrees C for 3-years) within 20-cm depth| but only warming reduced soil moisture at 10-cm soil depth during the growing season during the drought year of 2008. Generally| the effects of warming and grazing on N(2)O flux varied with sampling date| season| and year. No interactive effect between warming and grazing was found. Warming did not affect annual N(2)O flux when grazing was moderate during the growing season because the tradeoff of the effect of warming on N(2)O flux was observed between the growing season and no-growing season. No-warming with grazing (NWG) and warming with grazing (WG) significantly increased the average annual N(2)O flux (57.8 and 31.0%) compared with no-warming with no-grazing (NWNG) and warming with no-grazing (WNG)| respectively| indicating that warming reduced the response of N(2)O flux to grazing in the region. Winter accounted for 36-57% of annual N(2)O flux for NWNG and NWG| whereas only for 5-8% of annual N(2)O flux for WNG and WG. Soil temperature could explain 5-35% of annual N(2)O flux variation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 439,2010,4,4,Effects of weed control and fertilization on soil carbon and nutrient pools in an exotic pine plantation of subtropical Australia,Purpose Soil carbon (C) and nutrient pools under different plantation weed control and fertilizer management treatments were assessed in a 7-year-old| F(1) hybrid (Pinus elliottii var. elliottii x Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis) plantation in southeast Queensland| Australia. This research aimed to investigate how early establishment silvicultural treatments would affect weed biomass| soil C| nitrogen (N) and other nutrient pools; and soil C (delta(13)C) and N isotope composition (delta(15)N) to help explain the key soil processes regulating the soil C and nutrient pools and dynamics. Materials and methods Soils were sampled in June 2006 in both the planting row and in the inter-planting row at three depths (0-5| 5-10| and 10-20 cm). Soil parameters including total and labile C and N pools; soil delta(13)C and delta(15)N; total phosphorus (P); extractable potassium (K); moisture content and weed biomass were investigated. Results and discussion The luxury weed control treatments significantly reduced weed biomass and its organic residues returned to the soil in the first 7 years of plantation development. This resulted in significant variations at some depths and positions in soil delta(13)C| delta(15)N| extractable K| hot water extractable organic C (HWEOC)| hot water extractable total N (HWETN)| potentially mineralizable N (PMN)| and soil moisture content (MC). Luxury weed control in the absence of luxury fertilization also significantly decreased extractable K. There was a significant interaction between soil depth and sampling position for soil total C| total N| HWEOC| and HWETN. Weed biomass correlated positively with soil total N| delta(13)C| PMN| MC| HWEOC| and HWETN. Conclusions Luxury weed control treatments significantly reduced weed biomass leading to a reduction of soil organic matter. Soil delta(13)C and delta(15)| together with the other soil labile C and N pools| were sensitive and useful indicators of soil C dynamics and N cycling processes in the exotic pine plantation of subtropical Australia. 573,2010,3,4,Effort sharing in ambitious| global climate change mitigation scenarios,The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050| either -10% or -50% from 1990 levels| and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry| while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches| Triptych and Multistage| were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries| with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is| however| no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches| as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last| challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions| the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 412,2010,2,4,El Nino| grazers and fisheries interact to greatly elevate extinction risk for Galapagos marine species,Comparisons between historical and recent ecological datasets indicate that shallow reef habitats across the central Galapagos Archipelago underwent major transformation at the time of the severe 1982/1983 El Nino warming event. Heavily grazed reefs with crustose coralline algae ('urchin barrens') replaced former macroalgal and coral habitats| resulting in large local and regional declines in biodiversity. Following recent threat assessment workshops| a total of five mammals| six birds| five reptiles| six fishes| one echinoderm| seven corals| six brown algae and nine red algae reported from coastal environments in Galapagos are now recognized as globally threatened. The 2008 International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List includes 43 of these species| while two additional species (Galapagos damsel Azurina eupalama and 24-rayed sunstar Heliaster solaris) not seen for > 25 years also fulfil IUCN threatened species criteria. Two endemic species (Galapagos stringweed Bifurcaria galapagensis and the damselfish A. eupalama) are now regarded as probably extinct| while an additional six macroalgal species (Dictyota galapagensis| Spatoglossum schmittii| Desmarestia tropica| Phycodrina elegans| Gracilaria skottsbergii and Galaxaura barbata) and the seastar H. solaris are possibly extinct. The removal of large lobster and fish predators by artisanal fishing probably magnified impacts of the 1982/1983 El Nino through a cascade of indirect effects involving population expansion of grazing sea urchins. Marine protected areas with adequate enforcement are predicted to ameliorate but not eliminate ecosystem impacts caused by increasing thermal anomalies associated with El Nino and global climate change. 11272,2010,3,4,Electric| Hybrid| and Fuel-Cell Vehicles: Architectures and Modeling,With the advent of more stringent regulations related to emissions| fuel economy| and global warming| as well as energy resource constraints| electric| hybrid| and fuel-cell vehicles have attracted increasing attention from vehicle constructors| governments| and consumers. Research and development efforts have focused on developing advanced powertrains and efficient energy systems. This paper reviews the state of the art for electric| hybrid| and fuel-cell vehicles| with a focus on architectures and modeling for energy management. Although classic modeling approaches have often been used| new systemic approaches that allow better understanding of the interaction between the numerous subsystems have recently been introduced. 10544,2010,3,2,Electricity and combined heat and power from municipal solid waste; theoretically optimal investment decision time and emissions trading implications,Waste management has become a great social concern for modern societies. Landfill emissions have been identified among the major contributors of global warming and climate changes with significant impact in national economies. The energy industry constitutes an additional greenhouse gas emitter| while at the same time it is characterized by significant costs and uncertain fuel prices. The above implications have triggered different policies and measures worldwide to address the management of municipal solid wastes on the one hand and the impacts from energy production on the other. Emerging methods of energy recovery from waste may address both concerns simultaneously. In this work a comparative study of co-generation investments based on municipal solid waste is presented| focusing on the evolution of their economical performance over time. A real-options algorithm has been adopted investigating different options of energy recovery from waste: incineration| gasification and landfill biogas exploitation. The financial contributors are identified and the impact of greenhouse gas trading is analysed in terms of financial yields| considering landfilling as the baseline scenario. The results indicate an advantage of combined heat and power over solely electricity production. Gasification| has failed in some European installations. Incineration on the other hand| proves to be more attractive than the competing alternatives| mainly due to its higher power production efficiency| lower investment costs and lower emission rates. Although these characteristics may not drastically change over time| either immediate or irreversible investment decisions might be reconsidered under the current selling prices of heat| power and CO(2) allowances. 11326,2010,3,3,Electrocatalytic CO(2) Conversion to Oxalate by a Copper Complex,Global warming concern has dramatically increased interest in using CO(2) as a feedstock for preparation of value-added compounds| thereby helping to reduce its atmospheric concentration. Here| we describe a dinuclear copper(I) complex that is oxidized in air by CO(2) rather than O(2); the product is a tetranuclear copper(II) complex containing two bridging CO(2)-derived oxalate groups. Treatment of the copper(II) oxalate complex in acetonitrile with a soluble lithium salt results in quantitative precipitation of lithium oxalate. The copper(II) complex can then be nearly quantitatively electrochemically reduced at a relatively accessible potential| regenerating the initial dinuclear copper(I) compound. Preliminary results demonstrate six turnovers (producing 12 equivalents of oxalate) during 7 hours of catalysis at an applied potential of -0.03 volts versus the normal hydrogen electrode. 10884,2010,2,4,Elephant survival| rainfall and the confounding effects of water provision and fences,Elephant are increasing across some areas of Africa leading to concerns that they may reduce woodlands through their feeding. Droughts may help limit elephant numbers| but they are generally both episodic and local. To explore more general impacts of rainfall| we examine how its annual variation influences elephant survival across ten sites. These sites span an almost coast-to-coast transect of southern Africa that holds the majority of the similar to 500|000 remaining savanna elephants. Elephants born in high rainfall years survive better than elephants born in low rainfall years. The relationship is generally weak| except at the two fenced sites| where rainfall greatly influenced juvenile survival. In these two sites| there are also extensive networks of artificial water. Rainfall likely affects elephant survival through its influence on food. The provision of artificial water opens new areas for elephants in the dry season| while fencing restricts their movements in the wet season. We conclude that the combination of these factors makes elephant survival more susceptible to reductions in rainfall. As a result| elephants living in enclosed reserves may be the first populations to feel the impacts of global warming which will decrease average rainfall and increase the frequency of droughts. A way to prevent these elephants from damaging the vegetation within these enclosed parks is for managers to reduce artificial water sources or| whenever practical| to remove fences. 436,2010,2,4,Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations Amplify Alternaria alternata Sporulation and Total Antigen Production,BACKGROUND: Although the effect of elevated carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration on pollen production has been established in some plant species| impacts on fungal sporulation and antigen production have not been elucidated. OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to examine the effects of rising atmospheric CO(2) concentrations on the quantity and quality of fungal spores produced on timothy (Phleum pratense) leaves. METHODS: Timothy plants were grown at four CO(2) concentrations (300| 400| 500| and 600 mu mol/mol). Leaves were used as growth substrate for Alternaria alternata and Cladosporium phlei. The spore abundance produced by both fungi| as well as the size (microscopy) and antigenic protein content (ELISA) of A. alternata| were quantified. RESULTS: Leaf carbon-to-nitrogen ratio was greater at 500 and 600 mu mol/mol| and leaf biomass was greater at 600 mu mol/mol than at the lower CO(2) concentrations. Leaf carbon-to-nitrogen ratio was positively correlated with A. alternata spore production per gram of leaf but negatively correlated with antigenic protein content per spore. At 500 and 600 mu mol/mol CO(2) concentrations| A. alternata produced nearly three times the number of spores and more than twice the total antigenic protein per plant than at lower concentrations. C. phlei spore production was positively correlated with leaf carbon-to-nitrogen ratio| but overall spore production was much lower than in A. alternata| and total per-plant production did not vary among CO(2) concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated CO(2) concentrations often increase plant leaf biomass and carbon-to-nitrogen ratio. Here we demonstrate for the first time that these leaf changes are associated with increased spore production by A. alternata| a ubiquitous allergenic fungus. This response may contribute to the increasing prevalence of allergies and asthma. 515,2010,2,4,Elevated CO(2) and Temperature Effects on the Incidence of Four Major Chili Pepper Diseases,Four major diseases of chili pepper including two fungal diseases| anthracnose (Colletotrichum acutatum) and Phytophthora blight (Phytophthora capsici)| and two bacterial diseases| bacterial wilt (Ralstonia solanacearum) and bacterial spot (Xanthomonas campestris pv. vesicatoria)| were investigated under future climate change condition treatments in growth chambers. Treatments with elevated CO(2)| and temperature were maintained at 720 ppm +/- 20 ppm CO(2)| and 30 degrees C +/- 0.5 degrees C| whereas ambient conditions were maintained at 420 ppm +/- 20 ppm CO(2)| and 25 degrees C +/- 0.5 degrees C. Pepper seedlings or fruits were infected with each pathogen| and then the disease progress was evaluated in the growth chambers. According to paired t-test analyses| bacterial wilt and spot diseases significantly increased by 24% (p=0.008) and 25% (p=0.016)| respectively| with elevated CO(2)| and temperature conditions. On the other hand| neither Phytophthora blight (p=0.906) nor anthracnose (p= 0.125) was statistically significant. The elevated CO(2)| and temperature accelerated the progress of bacterial wilt by two days and bacterial spot by one day compared to the ambient treatment. Temperature regime studies of the diseases without changes in CO(2) confirmed that the accelerated bacterial disease progress was mainly due to the increased temperature rather than the elevated CO(2) conditions. 11267,2010,2,4,Elevated water temperature impairs fertilization and embryonic development of whitefish Coregonus lavaretus,The adverse effects of high temperatures on the early life stages of anadromous whitefish Coregonus lavaretus were experimentally examined by assessing fertilization success| the percentage of developmental abnormalities| cumulative mortality and the rate of embryogenesis across a range of temperatures. Temperatures >= 7 degrees C increased the proportion of unfertilized and abnormally dividing eggs| deformed embryos and consequent mortality. The higher the temperature| the more severe were the effects. When eggs were fertilized and constantly incubated at various temperatures| the effective level for 50% of the eggs and embryos (EL50) of temperature was 7.6 degrees C at the developmental stage when eye pigmentation was visible. Fewer developmental abnormalities and a lower cumulative mortality rate were observed when embryos were exposed to high temperatures from the later| gastrula stage| than from fertilization or the four-cell stage. Irrespective of retarded development in terms of day-degrees (i.e. the sum of daily mean temperatures)| a high incubation temperature reduced the development time of C. lavaretus| leading to earlier hatching| and hatched fry were shorter than at the reference temperature of 4-5 degrees C. Global warming will particularly pose risks for stenothermic species such as C. lavaretus| with early life stages being especially susceptible. Thus| relatively small increases and fluctuations in river water temperatures during the spawning season of this anadromous species may have substantial negative impacts on its recruitment and population persistence. 10692,2010,2,4,Elevational gradients in species abundance| assemblage structure and energy use of rainforest birds in the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion,Elevational patterns of species richness| local abundance and assemblage structure of rainforest birds of north-eastern Australia were explored using data from extensive standardized surveys throughout the region. Eighty-two species of birds were recorded with strong turnover in assemblage structure across the elevational gradient and high levels of regional endemism in the uplands. Both species richness and bird abundance exhibited a humped-shaped pattern with elevation with the highest values being between 600 and 800 m elevation. While much of the variability in species richness could be explained by the species-area relationship| analyses of net primary productivity (NPP) and total daily energy consumption of the bird community (energy use) suggest that ecosystem energy flow or constraints may be a significant determinant of species richness. Species richness is positively correlated with local bird abundance which itself is closely related to total energy use of the bird community. We suggest the hypothesis that lower NPP limits bird abundance and energy use in the uplands (> 500 m) and that low bird energy use and species richness in the lowlands is limited by a seasonal bottleneck in available primary productivity and/or a species pool previously truncated by an extinction filter imposed by the almost complete disappearance of rainforest in the lowlands during the glacial maxima. We suggest that some of the previously predicted impacts of global warming on biodiversity in the uplands may be partially ameliorated by increases in NPP because of increasing temperatures. However| these relationships are complex and require further data specifically in regard to direct estimates of primary productivity and detailed estimates of energy flow within the assemblage. 10502,2010,3,4,Eliciting public preference for nuclear energy against the backdrop of global warming,One of the most important issues related to sustainability is to reduce the use of fossil fuels due to the reduction in greenhouse gases (GHG) emission. Nuclear power results in low carbon emissions and is thus important to mitigating the adverse effects of global warming and climate change. However| the downside of nuclear power cannot be overlooked| and consequently nuclear power is a controversial issue in many countries around the world. Thus an important question concerns how people should support nuclear power. Do the climate and energy security benefits of nuclear power outweigh its risks and costs? Therefore| we use a modified double-bounded contingent valuation model to explore the attitudes and the willingness to pay (WTP) of a country in order to demonstrate its implications for policy. We confirm that supporters and opponents of nuclear power are balanced both in terms of their numbers and in terms of their WTP. The policy implication is that people do not support any dramatic increase or reduction in nuclear power| and that nuclear power should still be an important means of generating electricity in Taiwan. The current share of nuclear power in electricity generation of 20% should be maintained in the near future. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10623,2010,2,4,Embryonic Developmental Rates of Northern Grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae): Implications for Climate Change and Habitat Management,Accurate models of temperature-dependent embryonic developmental rates are important to assess the effects of a changing climate on insect life cycles and to suggest methods of population management by habitat manipulation. Embryonic development determines the life cycle of many species of grasshoppers| which| in cold climates| spend two winters in the egg stage. Increasing temperatures associated with climate change in the subarctic could potentiate a switch to a univoltine life cycle. However| egg hatch could be delayed by maintaining a closed vegetative canopy| which would lower soil temperatures by shading the soil surface. Prediapause and postdiapause embryonic developmental rates were measured in the laboratory over a wide range of temperatures for Melanoplus borealis Fieber and Melanoplus sanguinipes F. (Orthoptera: Acrididae) A model was fit to the data and used to predict dates of egg hatch in the spring and prediapause development in the fall under different temperature regimens. Actual soil temperatures were recorded at several locations over 5 yr. To simulate climate warming| 2| 3| or 4 degrees C was added to each hourly recorded temperature. Results suggest that a 2| 3| or 4 degrees C increase in soil temperatures will result in eggs hatching approximate to 3| 5| or 7 d earlier| respectively. An increase of 3 degrees C would be required to advance prediapause development enough to allow for a portion of the population to be univoltine in warmer years. To simulate shading| 2 and 4 degrees C were subtracted from observed temperatures. A 4 degrees C decrease in temperatures could potentially delay hatch by 8 d. 11035,2010,3,2,Emerging energy scenario in Western Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh,The GHGs emmited by using conventional energy sources rapid industrialization and development in hills| are contributing global warming| which has resulted in melting of glaciers located in the state at the rate of 0.3-20 m(2) per year as per recent studies. The shrinking of glaciers| which are the main source of water of Himalayan rivers| can have an adverse impact on the future of hydro-power projects| many of which may become non-functional during next 40-50 years if the current trend of melting of glaciers continues and the other renewable energy sources are required to be tapped to supplement the declining hydro-electricity generation. The energy consumption for cooking| lighting and space heating in the Western Himalayan Indian state of Himachal Pradesh| is highest in the northern India. The fuelwood consumption constitutes about 52% of the total energy consumption of the state. About 2.7 h per person per trip in the rural areas| are spent for the collection of fuelwood mainly during winters. A number of options and potential of renewable energy sources for cooking| heating and lighting in the state have been discussed. The future policy interventions in the energy sector are also presented. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10617,2010,2,4,Emerging legal concerns in the Arctic: sovereignty| navigation and land claim disputes,With global warming| the clearance of the Northwest Passage and the rising demands for new energy resources| the sovereignty of Canadian and other national land claims in the Arctic north is coming into question by those wishing to control access to this region. The present paper examines issues involving emerging landmasses| maritime rights| strategic control and navigation| perhaps the most important variable| and the consequences in terms of commercial economies and geopolitical impacts. We consider many variables such as the 1982 Falkland Islands war as a demonstrative example that may have translatable impact in future years. Our purpose in this paper is to raise awareness of impending geopolitical activities that are inevitable during the 21st century as the Arctic pack ice retreats. 11178,2010,2,2,Emission scenario dependencies in climate change assessments of the hydrological cycle,Anthropogenic global warming will lead to changes in the global hydrological cycle. The uncertainty in precipitation sensitivity per 1 K of global warming across coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) has been actively examined. On the other hand| the uncertainty in precipitation sensitivity in different emission scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols has received little attention. Here we show a robust emission-scenario dependency (ESD); smaller global precipitation sensitivities occur in higher GHG and aerosol emission scenarios. Although previous studies have applied this ESD to the multi-AOGCM mean| our surprising finding is that current AOGCMs all have the common ESD in the same direction. Different aerosol emissions lead to this ESD. The implications of the ESD of precipitation sensitivity extend far beyond climate analyses. As we show| the ESD potentially propagates into considerable biases in impact assessments of the hydrological cycle via a widely used technique| so-called pattern scaling. Since pattern scaling is essential to conducting parallel analyses across climate| impact| adaptation and mitigation scenarios in the next report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| more attention should be paid to the ESD of precipitation sensitivity. 11048,2010,2,3,Emission Scenario Dependency of Precipitation on Global Warming in the MIROC3.2 Model,The precipitation sensitivity per 1 K of global warming in twenty-first-century climate projections is smaller in an emission scenario with larger greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol emissions| according to the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2 (MIROC3.2) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The authors examined the reasons for the precipitation sensitivity to emission scenarios by performing separated individual forcing runs under high and low emission scenarios. It was found that the dependency on emission scenario is mainly caused by differences in black and organic carbon aerosol forcing (the sum of which is cooling forcing) between the emission scenarios and that the precipitation is more sensitive to carbon aerosols than well-mixed greenhouse gases. They also investigated the reason for the larger precipitation sensitivity (larger magnitude of precipitation decrease per 1 K cooling of temperature) in the carbon aerosol runs. Surface dimming due to the direct and indirect effects of carbon aerosols effectively decreases evaporation and precipitation| which enhances the precipitation sensitivity in the carbon aerosol runs. In terms of the atmospheric moisture cycle| although changes of vertical circulation offset the effects of changes in the atmospheric moisture in both the carbon aerosol and greenhouse gas runs| the amplitude of vertical circulation change per 1 K temperature change is less in the carbon aerosol runs. Furthermore| the second indirect effect of organic carbon aerosol counteracts the influence of the vertical circulation change. These factors lead to suppression of changes in the moisture's atmospheric residence time and increase of the precipitation sensitivity in the carbon aerosol runs. 10989,2010,3,4,Emissions of carbon dioxide| methane and nitrous oxide from soil receiving urban wastewater for maize (Zea mays L.) cultivation,We investigated how amending maize with wastewater at 120 kg N ha(-1) affected crop growth| soil characteristics and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2))| methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) compared to plants fertilized with urea. Maize growth response was similar when fertilized with urea or wastewater despite a delayed release of nutrients upon mineralization of the organic material in the wastewater. Applying wastewater to soil significantly increased the mean CO(2) emission rate 2.4 times to 1.74 A mu g C kg(-1) soil h(-1) compared to the unamended soil (0.74 A mu g C kg(-1) soil h(-1))| and cultivating maize further increased it 3.2 times (5.61 A mu g C kg(-1) soil h(-1)). Irrigating soil with wastewater| cultivating it with maize or applying urea had no significant effect on the emission of N(2)O compared to the unamended soil (1.49 x 10(-3) A mu g N kg(-1) soil h(-1)). Adding urea to soil did no affect the CH(4) oxidation rate (0.1 x 10(-3) A mu g C kg(-1) soil h(-1))| nor did cultivating maize in the urea-amended soil| but adding wastewater to soil resulted in a significant production of CH(4) (128.4 x 10(-3) A mu g C kg(-1) soil h(-1)). Irrigating soil with wastewater increased the global warming potential (GWP) 2.5 fold compared to the urea amended soil| while in soil cultivated with maize GWP increased 1.4 times. It was found that irrigating crops with wastewater might limit the use of N fertilizer and water from aquifers| but the amount applied should be limited because nitrate (NO (3) (-) ) leaching and emissions of CO(2)| N(2)O and CH(4) will be substantial and the increased soil salt content will limit crop growth. 10765,2010,4,7,Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications,We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar power spectra. Eleven frequencies with period between 5 and 100 years closely correspond in the two records. Among them| large climate oscillations with peak-to-trough amplitude of about 0.1 and 0.25 degrees C| and periods of about 20 and 60 years| respectively| are synchronized to the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn. Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are also visible in the temperature records. A 9.1-year cycle is synchronized to the Moon's orbital cycles. A phenomenological model based on these astronomical cycles can be used to well reconstruct the temperature oscillations since 1850 and to make partial forecasts for the 21st century. It is found that at least 60% of the global warming observed since 1970 has been induced by the combined effect of the above natural climate oscillations. The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030-2040. Possible physical mechanisms are qualitatively discussed with an emphasis on the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
11513,2010,3,4,Energy consumption| greenhouse gas emissions and economic performance assessments in French Charolais suckler cattle farms: Model-based analysis and forecasts,The environmental and economic performance of five Charolais beef production systems (three specialized beef producer test cases in grassland areas and two mixed crop-livestock test cases with a more intensive production system) were assessed by coupling an economic optimization model ("Opt'INRA") with a model assessing non-renewable energy (NRE) consumption and greenhouse gas emissions ("PLANETE"). The test cases studied covered a relatively diverse range of raised and sold animals: calf-to-weanling or calf-to-beef systems (animals sold: from 10-month-old weaners to 36-month-old beef steers). In 2006| NRE consumption ranged from 26|440 to 31|863 MJ/ton of live weight produced over I year. Fuels and lubricants were the main factors of NRE consumption| followed by fertilizers and farm equipment. Livestock was the main driver of global warming potential. GHG emissions| at 14.3-18.3 tCO(2)eq/t LW| were mainly determined by the proportion of cows in the total herd livestock units| according to the farming system deployed| i.e. calf-to-weanling vs. calf-to-beef. Against a background of rising energy costs| farms running mixed crop-livestock systems enjoy greater flexibility to adjust their farming systems than grassland-based farms| enabling them to minimize the drop in income over the timeframe to 2012 (-3%). In this same setting| specialist beef producers face a 15-25% drop in income. In all the scenarios run| system adjustments designed to minimize the drop in income have only a very limited impact on NRE consumption and GHG emissions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 382,2010,3,4,Energy efficiency in India: Assessing the policy regimes and their impacts,In the recent years. India has emerged as one of the fast growing economies of the world necessitating equally rapid increase in modern energy consumption. With an imminent global climate change threat| India will have difficulties in continuing with this rising energy use levels towards achieving high economic growth. It will have to follow an energy-efficient pathway in attaining this goal. In this context| an attempt is made to present India's achievements on the energy efficiency front by tracing the evolution of policies and their impacts. The results indicate that India has made substantial progress in improving energy efficiency which is evident from the reductions achieved in energy intensities of GDP to the tune of 88% during 1980-2007. Similar reductions have been observed both with respect to overall Indian economy and the major sectors of the economy. In terms of energy intensity of GDP| India occupies a relatively high position of nine among the top 30 energy consuming countries of the world. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10506,2010,3,2,Energy ITS: Another Application of Vehicular Communications,Recent annual CO(2) emission from Japan sums up to 1.2 billion ton| and about 17 percent of it is from automobile traffic. There are many approaches to reduce CO(2) emission and to prevent the global warming| and one of the important approaches is the Intelligent Transport Systems. This article surveys the effects of the ITS on the energy saving and global warming prevention based on the data in Japan| focusing on the applications of vehicular communication technologies. The ITS could contribute to the energy saving on two aspects: one is to eliminate the congestion| which enables each automobile to drive at the fuel optimal speeds| and the other is to provide means for modal shift| which reduces the traffic. This article surveys the ITS technologies for energy saving and CO(2) emission reduction| which include traffic signal control| ETC| route guidance| cruise control| and automated driving. The road-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-vehicle communications play an essential role in energy saving as well as in the safety of automobiles and road transportation. 10873,2010,3,4,Energy recovery from waste incineration: Assessing the importance of district heating networks,Municipal solid waste incineration contributes with 20% of the heat supplied to the more than 400 district heating networks in Denmark. In evaluation of the environmental consequences of this heat production| the typical approach has been to assume that other (fossil) fuels could be saved on a 1:1 basis (e.g. 1 GJ of waste heat delivered substitutes for 1 GJ of coal-based heat). This paper investigates consequences of waste-based heat substitution in two specific Danish district heating networks and the energy-associated interactions between the plants connected to these networks. Despite almost equal electricity and heat efficiencies at the waste incinerators connected to the two district heating networks| the energy and CO(2) accounts showed significantly different results: waste incineration in one network caused a CO2 saving of 48 kg CO(2)/GJ energy input while in the other network a load of 43 kg CO2/GJ. This was caused mainly by differences in operation mode and fuel types of the other heat producing plants attached to the networks. The paper clearly indicates that simple evaluations of waste-to-energy efficiencies at the incinerator are insufficient for assessing the consequences of heat substitution in district heating network systems. The paper also shows that using national averages for heat substitution will not provide a correct answer: local conditions need to be addressed thoroughly otherwise we may fail to assess correctly the heat recovery from waste incineration. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10489,2010,2,2,Enhanced nutrient supply to the California Current Ecosystem with global warming and increased stratification in an earth system model,A leading hypothesis relating productivity with climate variability in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) describes an alternation between warmer| well-stratified periods of low productivity and cooler periods of high productivity. This empirical relationship suggests that productivity will decline with global warming. Here| we explore the response of productivity to future climate change in the CCE using an earth system model. This model projects increases in nitrate supply and productivity in the CCE during the 21st century despite increases in stratification and limited change in wind-driven upwelling. We attribute the increased nitrate supply to enrichment of deep source waters entering the CCE resulting from decreased ventilation of the North Pacific. Decreases in dissolved-oxygen concentration and increasing acidification accompany projected increases in nitrate. This analysis illustrates that anthropogenic climate change may be unlike past variability; empirical relationships based on historical observations may be inappropriate for projecting ecosystem responses to future climate change. Citation: Rykaczewski| R. R.| and J. P. Dunne (2010)| Enhanced nutrient supply to the California Current Ecosystem with global warming and increased stratification in an earth system model| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L21606| doi: 10.1029/2010GL045019. 11306,2010,2,3,Enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake in the Northern High Latitudes in the 21st century from the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project model projections,The ongoing and projected warming in the northern high latitudes (NHL; poleward of 60 degrees N) may lead to dramatic changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle. On the one hand| warming and increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentration stimulate vegetation productivity| taking up CO(2). On the other hand| warming accelerates the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM)| releasing carbon into the atmosphere. Here| the NHL terrestrial carbon storage is investigated based on 10 models from the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis suggests that the NHL will be a carbon sink of 0.3 +/- 0.3 Pg C yr-1 by 2100. The cumulative land organic carbon storage is modeled to increase by 38 +/- 20 Pg C over 1901 levels| of which 17 +/- 8 Pg C comes from vegetation (43%) and 21 +/- 16 Pg C from the soil (8%). Both CO(2) fertilization and warming enhance vegetation growth in the NHL. Although the intense warming there enhances SOM decomposition| soil organic carbon (SOC) storage continues to increase in the 21st century. This is because higher vegetation productivity leads to more turnover (litterfall) into the soil| a process that has received relatively little attention. However| the projected growth rate of SOC begins to level off after 2060 when SOM decomposition accelerates at high temperature and then catches up with the increasing input from vegetation turnover. Such competing mechanisms may lead to a switch of the NHL SOC pool from a sink to a source after 2100 under more intense warming| but large uncertainty exists due to our incomplete understanding of processes such as the strength of the CO(2) fertilization effect| permafrost| and the role of soil moisture. Unlike the CO(2) fertilization effect that enhances vegetation productivity across the world| global warming increases the productivity at high latitudes but tends to reduce it in the tropics and mid-latitudes. These effects are further enhanced as a result of positive carbon cycle-climate feedbacks due to additional CO(2) and warming. 10392,2010,3,3,Enhancement of CO(2) Sorption Uptake on Hydrotalcite by Impregnation with K(2)CO(3),The awareness of symptoms of global warming and its seriousness urges the development of technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is a representative greenhouse gas| and numerous methods to capture and storage CO(2) have been considered. Recently| the technology to remove high-temperature CO(2) by sorption has received lots of attention. In this study| hydrotalcite| which has been known to have CO(2) sorption capability at high temperature| was impregnated with K(2)CO(3) to enhance CO(2) sorption uptake| and the mechanism of CO(2) sorption enhancement on K(2)CO(3)-promoted hydrotalcite was investigated. Thermogravimetric analysis was used to measure equilibrium CO(2) sorption uptake and to estimate CO(2) sorption kinetics| The analyses based on N(2) gas physisorption| X-ray diffractometry| Fourier transform infrared spectrometry| Raman spectrometry| transmission electron microscopy| scanning electron microscopy| and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy were carried out to elucidate the characteristics of sorbents and the mechanism of enhanced CO(2) sorption. The equilibrium CO(2) sorption uptake on hydrotalcite could be increased up to 10 times by impregnation with K(2)CO(3)| and there was an optimal amount of K(2)CO(3) for a maximum equilibrium CO(2) sorption uptake. In the K(2)CO(3)-promoted hydrotalcite| K(2)CO(3) was incorporated without changing the structure of hydrotalcite and it was thermally stabilized| resulting in the enhanced equilibrium CO(2) sorption uptake and fast CO(2) sorption kinetics. 10535,2010,3,2,Enhancement of Hydrogen by laser focusing during plasma electrolysis of water,With the increasing energy costs and shortage of oil reserves| production and supply| the need of new energy sources becoming popular in recent days. In concern with global warming and climate change by emission of carbon dioxide with fossil fuel particularly coal has increased the importance of hydrogen. The Production and the enhancement of hydrogen on large scale is a goal towards the revolution of green and cheap energy. Photo catalysis and electrolysis of water are the important methods for production of hydrogen from water. In this paper the role of electrolyte as a photo catalyst was studied during electrolysis of water. The Production and the enhancement of hydrogen from the water have been investigated under the action of diode pumped solid state laser with second harmonic of wavelength 808nm. The efficiency of the hydrogen and oxygen yields was found to be greater than the normal Faradic efficiency. The parametric dependence of the yields as a function of laser beam power| irradiation time is shown. Laser focusing effect and parameters of the electrolysis fundamentals were carefully studied. 11519,2010,3,4,Enhancement of marine cloud albedo via controlled sea spray injections: a global model study of the influence of emission rates| microphysics and transport,Modification of cloud albedo by controlled emission of sea spray particles into the atmosphere has been suggested as a possible geoengineering option to slow global warming. Previous global studies have imposed changes in cloud drop concentration in low level clouds to explore the radiative and climatic effects. Here| we use a global aerosol transport model to quantify how an imposed flux of sea spray particles affects the natural aerosol processes| the particle size distribution| and concentrations of cloud drops. We assume that the proposed fleet of vessels emits sea spray particles with a wind speed-dependent flux into four regions of persistent stratocumulus cloud off the western coasts of continents. The model results show that fractional changes in cloud drop number concentration (CDNC) vary substantially between the four regions because of differences in wind speed (which affects the spray efficiency of the vessels)| transport and particle deposition rates| and because of variations in aerosols from natural and anthropogenic sources. Using spray emission rates comparable to those implied by previous studies we find that the predicted CDNC changes are very small (maximum 20%) and in one of the four regions even negative. The weak or negative effect is because the added particles suppress the in-cloud supersaturation and prevent existing aerosol particles from forming cloud drops. A scenario with five times higher emissions (considerably higher than previously assumed) increases CDNC on average by 45-163%| but median concentrations are still below the 375 cm(-3) assumed in previous studies. An inadvertent effect of the spray emissions is that sulphur dioxide concentrations are suppressed by 1-2% in the seeded regions and sulphuric acid vapour by 64-68% due to chemical reactions on the additional salt particles. The impact of this suppression on existing aerosol is negligible in the model| but should be investigated further in the real environment so that inadvertent impacts can be excluded. 11321,2010,2,2,Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate,The processes controlling the carbon flux and carbon storage of the atmosphere| ocean and terrestrial biosphere are temperature sensitive(1-4) and are likely to provide a positive feedback leading to amplified anthropogenic warming(3). Owing to this feedback| at time-scales ranging from interannual to the 20-100-kyr cycles of Earth's orbital variations(1|5-7)| warming of the climate system causes a net release of CO(2) into the atmosphere; this in turn amplifies warming. But the magnitude of the climate sensitivity of the global carbon cycle (termed gamma)| and thus of its positive feedback strength| is under debate| giving rise to large uncertainties in global warming projections(8|9). Here we quantify the median gamma as 7.7 p. p. m. v. CO(2) per degrees C warming| with a likely range of 1.7-21.4 p. p. m. v. CO(2) per degrees C. Sensitivity experiments exclude significant influence of pre-industrial land-use change on these estimates. Our results| based on the coupling of a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of proxy-based temperature reconstructions and pre-industrial CO(2) data from three ice cores| provide robust constraints for gamma on the policy-relevant multi-decadal to centennial timescales. By using an ensemble of >200|000 members| quantification of gamma is not only improved| but also likelihoods can be assigned| thereby providing a benchmark for future model simulations. Although uncertainties do not at present allow exclusion of gamma calculated from any of ten coupled carbon-climate models| we find that gamma is about twice as likely to fall in the lowermost than in the uppermost quartile of their range. Our results are incompatibly lower (P < 0.05) than recent pre-industrial empirical estimates of similar to 40 p. p. m. v. CO(2) per degrees C (refs 6| 7)| and correspondingly suggest similar to 80% less potential amplification of ongoing global warming. 10451,2010,3,3,Environmental analysis of a German strategy for carbon capture and storage of coal power plants,This paper combines an existing projection of the development of electricity production with a technology-specific environmental assessment. The combination of these two approaches| which so far have only been performed separately| allows a discussion about environmental effects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) implementation strategies on a national level. The results identify the future role of lignite and hard coal in German power production. The implementation of CCS technology leads to a considerable loss of efficiency. Due to CCS| about 50 million t of lignite will be additionally required in 2030 in comparison to the reference case without CCS in 2010. Increasing demand| the replacement of old plants and the compensation of efficiency losses lead to highly ambitious expansion rates. In the case of CCS implementation| the global warming potential (GWP) can be reduced by up to 70%. However| other environmental impacts increase in part considerably. Compliance with national ceilings for NO(x) emissions can only be reached by compensation measures in other sectors The results of the environmental assessment demonstrate the significant role of the coal composition| coal origin and the required transport. CO(2) pipeline transport and CO(2) storage make a fairly minor contribution to the overall environmental impact. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11028,2010,3,3,Environmental assessment of anaerobically digested sludge reuse in agriculture: Potential impacts of emerging micropollutants,Agricultural application of sewage sludge has been emotionally discussed in the last decades| because the latter contains organic micropollutants with unknown fate and risk potential. In this work| the reuse of anaerobically digested sludge in agriculture is evaluated from an environmental point of view by using Life Cycle Assessment methodology. More specifically| the potential impacts of emerging micropollutants| such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products| present in the sludge have been quantified. Four scenarios were considered according to the temperature of the anaerobic digestion (mesophilic or thermophilic) and the sludge retention time (20 or 10 d)| and they have been compared with the non-treated sludge. From an environmental point of view| the disposal of undigested sludge is not the most suitable alternative| except for global warming due to the dominance (65-85%) of the indirect emissions associated to the electricity use. Nutrient-related direct emissions dominate the eutrophication category impact in all the scenarios (>71.4%)| although a beneficial impact related to the avoidance of industrial fertilisers production is also quantified (up to 6.7%). In terms of human and terrestrial toxicity| the direct emissions of heavy metals to soil dominate these two impact categories (>70%)| and the contribution of other micropollutants is minimal. Moreover| only six (Galaxolide| Tonalide| Diazepam| Ibuprofen| Sulfamethoxazole and 17 alpha-ethinyloestradiol) out of the 13 substances considered are really significant since they account for more than 95% of the overall micropollutants impact. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10680,2010,3,3,Environmental assessment of home composting,In this study the environmental burdens of home composting were determined using the life cycle assessment (LCA) tool. Data used for the LCA study such as gas emissions (CH(4)| N(2)O| NH(3) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs))| tools and composter characteristics were obtained from an experimental home composting process of leftovers of raw fruits and vegetables (LRFV). Stable compost with a high content of nitrogen and organic matter was obtained. Neither pathogens nor phytotoxic compounds were found in the final compost. In relation to gaseous emissions| only volatile organic compounds (0.32 kg VOC/Mg LRFV) were detected| even though ammonia| methane and nitrous oxide emissions were also measured. Regarding environmental burdens| the composter was the major contributor to the total home composting process impact for the impact categories of abiotic depletion| ozone layer depletion| and cumulative energy demand. Gaseous emissions (based on our own measurements and literature data) caused the greatest contribution to the acidification| eutrophication| global warming and photochemical oxidation potentials. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10720,2010,3,3,Environmental assessment of organic soybean (Glycine max.) imported from China to Denmark: a case study,Growing global trade with organic products has increased the demand for environmental impact assessments during both production and transport. Environmental hotspots of organic soybeans produced in China and imported to Denmark were identified in a case study using a life cycle assessment approach. Furthermore| environmental impacts of organic and conventional soybeans at farm gate were compared in the case study. The total global warming potential (GWP) per ton organic soybeans imported to Denmark revealed that 51% came from transportation and 35% from the farm level. Comparing organic and conventional soybean at farm gate showed that GWP| non-renewable energy use| acidification and eutrophication was lower per ton organic soybeans| whereas land use was slightly higher. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10630,2010,3,4,Environmental assessment of post-consumer wood and forest residues gasification: The case study of Barcelona metropolitan area,An energy and environmental analysis of post-consumer wood and forest residues gasification in metropolitan areas is carried out to determine the most critical stages of their life cycle. Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methodology is used to identify the environmental load of three defined scenarios: (1) Post-consumer wood from recycling points; (2) Post-consumer wood from bulky wastes; and (3) Forest residues. The stages considered are biomass pre-treatment| transport and gasification. Biomass pre-treatment comprise different steps: separation| chipping| sifting| post-chipping for all the scenarios; except for the drying step which is only entailed to Scenario 3. The midpoint impact categories taken into account are: abiotic depletion (AD)| global warming (GW)| ozone layer depletion (ODP)| human toxicity (HT)| acidification (A) and eutrophication (E). Results show that| due to the high physical requirements for biomass gasification| the most appropriate biomass is that of Scenario 1| since forest residues require a drying stage| which involves high energy consumption and high environmental impact. Energy consumption in biomass pre-treatment and transport stages is low compared to the energy obtained from gasification| which represents the 5% in Scenario 1; 7% in Scenario 2; and 13% in Scenario 3. Biomass pre-treatment is associated to an important contribution in AD and ODP impact categories| calculated as 71% and 98% of the overall impact. The transport stage is of no significant influence either in the scenarios or in the impact categories (less than 24% of the overall impact). Finally| gasification represents an impact of 3-78% of the different impact categories. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10981,2010,3,3,Environmental Assessment of Wood-Based Biofuel Production and Consumption Scenarios in Norway,In Norway| the boreal forest offers a considerable resource base| and emerging technologies may soon make it commercially viable to convert these resources into low-carbon biofuels. Decision makers are required to make informed decisions about the environmental implications of wood biofuels today that will affect the medium-and long-term development of a wood-based biofuels industry in Norway. We first assess the national forest-derived resource base for use in biofuel production. A set of biomass conversion technologies is then chosen and evaluated for scenarios addressing biofuel production and consumption by select industry sectors. We then apply an environmentally extended| mixed-unit| two-region input-output model to quantify the global warming mitigation and fossil fuel displacement potentials of two biofuel production and consumption scenarios in Norway up to 2050. We find that a growing resource base| when used to produce advanced biofuels| results in cumulative global warming mitigation potentials of between 58 and 83 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents avoided (Mt-CO(2)-eq.-avoided) in Norway| depending on the biofuel scenario. In recent years| however| the domestic pulp and paper industry-due to increasing exposure to international competition| capacity reductions| and increasing production costs-has been in decline. In the face of a declining domestic pulp and paper industry| imported pulp and paper products are required to maintain the demand for these goods and thus the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the exporting region embodied in Norway's pulp and paper imports reduce the systemwide benefit in terms of avoided greenhouse gas emissions by 27%. 10804,2010,3,4,Environmental benefits from reusing clothes,Clothes are often discarded when much of their potential lifetime is left. Many charitable organizations therefore collect used clothing and resell it as second-hand clothes for example in Eastern Europe or Africa. In this connection| the question arises whether reusing clothes actually results in a decrease of the environmental burden of the life cycle of clothing. The environmental burden of clothing has been studied in several studies. However| most of these studies focus solely on the energy consumption aspects and pay little attention to the potential benefits of diverting used clothing from the waste stream. The aim of the study was to assess the net environmental benefits brought by the disposal of used clothing through charities who return them for second-hand sales assuming that second-hand clothes to some extent replace the purchase of new clothes. The extent to which second-hand clothes (SHC) introduces such a replacement was investigated applying a methodology in which a questionnaire-based survey was conducted on more than 200 consumers in second-hand shops. The survey was done in Sweden and Estonia| and Africa was included by estimation. Based on the identification of the different profiles of the consumers questioned| a methodology was developed to get a quantitative evaluation of the replacement of new clothes enabled by second-hand clothing consumption. A life cycle assessment was conducted based on the EDIP methodology. The life cycle impacts of clothes that are directly disposed of by incineration were compared with the life cycle impacts of clothes that are collected and sorted after consumer use in order to be reused. Two products were assessed: a cotton T-shirt and a pair of polyester (65%)/cotton (35%) trousers. The functional unit was 100 garments in the use stage. Based on the survey result and the methodology applied| the purchase of 100 second-hand garments would save between 60 and 85 new garments dependent of the place of reuse. Based on information about the second-hand clothing activities conducted by Humana People to People in Sweden and Estonia| it was assumed that over 100 collected items 60 would be reused| 30 recycled in other ways| and ten go to final disposal. Using these inputs| the LCA showed that the collection| processing| and transport of second-hand clothing has insignificant impacts on the environment in comparison to the savings that are achieved by replacing virgin clothing. The reduction of impacts resulting from collecting 100 garments for reuse range from 14% decrease of global warming for the cotton T-shirt to 45% reduction of human toxicity for the polyester/cotton trousers. The approach applied is a fair way of establishing the net benefits from introducing clothes reuse. Indeed| it enables to take into consideration all the activities connected to reusing clothes| including| for instance| recycling and disposal of the collected clothes not suitable for reuse. In addition| the routes followed by the collected clothes have been determined based on real figures. A main assumption concerns the estimation of avoided production of new clothes brought by clothes reuse. The method used| based on questionnaires| could be further developed but still suggests an approach on an issue that had not been investigated so far. The results of the study show that clothes reuse can significantly contribute to reducing the environmental burden of clothing. It would be beneficial to apply other methods for estimating the avoided production of new clothes in order to check the validity and reliability of the results obtained in the current study. Such further work could include the possible difference in the lifetime of second-hand clothes compared to new clothes. 10611,2010,3,4,Environmental benefits of substituting talc by sugarcane bagasse fibers as reinforcement in polypropylene composites: Ecodesign and LCA as strategy for automotive components,The auto industry is compelled to improve its environmental performance| namely by making use of renewable materials and cleaner manufacturing processes with lower energy intensity| and at the end-of-life of the auto| recyclable products and materials are desirable specifications that need to be considered at an earlier design stage| i.e.| promoting the ecodesign. This paper provides an analysis of such a strategy for a material that is used extensively in the auto industry| namely polypropylene composites| as we have quantified the environmental impacts when sugarcane bagasse-reinforced polypropylene substitutes for talc-filled polypropylene (PP). To achieve these goals| a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was performed for the two alternatives| from raw extractions to the end-of-life (EOL) phase of sugarcane bagasse-PP and talc-PP composite| where data gathered in different industries in Brazil were included in the LCA GaBi software. Our analysis shows that in addition to similar mechanical performance| natural fiber composites showed superior environmental performance throughout the entire life cycle. This superior performance is because: (1) in the cultivation phase| sugarcane absorbs carbon through the photosynthesis process while growing| thus reducing the global warming impact of the materials used; (2) the production process is cleaner; (3) sugarcane bagasse-reinforced composites are lighter for equivalent performance| which reduces the amount of polypropylene used; and (4) the economic reuse proposed for the EOL sugarcane bagasse-PP composite was the best alternative to minimize environmental impacts. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10606,2010,3,4,ENVIRONMENTAL BURDEN PREDICTION OF MANUFACTURING PROCESS IN VIRTUAL MANUFACTURING,A method for evaluating the environmental burden due to manufacturing process is proposed using virtual manufacturing processes based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The total environment| burden is evaluated from the electric consumption of machine tool components| coolant quantity; lubricant oil quantity| cutting tool status| and metal chip quantity. The initial step of this study is focused on machine tool operations Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 100 years impact is taken as a key factor and equivalent CO(2) emission is evaluated The relation between cutting conditions and environmental burden of machine tool operations is analyzed in this study The results reveal the appropriate cutting conditions and can be used to predict and reduce the amount of CO(2) generated from machine tool operations 10731,2010,3,4,Environmental burdens of producing bread wheat| oilseed rape and potatoes in England and Wales using simulation and system modelling,Food production is essential to life. Modern farming uses considerable resources to produce arable crops. Analysing the environmental burdens of alternative crop production methods is a vital tool for policymakers. The paper describes the production burdens (calculated by life cycle analysis) of three key arable crops: bread wheat| oilseed rape and potatoes as grown in England and Wales using organic and non-organic (contemporary conventional) systems. Resource use (e.g. abiotic and energy) and burdens from emissions are included (e.g. global warming potential on a 100-year basis| global warming potential (GWP)| and eutrophication and acidification potentials). Crop production was analysed| using systems models| so that the effects of factors like changing N fertiliser application rates or irrigation could be examined. Emissions of nitrate were derived from a simulation model in which soil organic N was driven to steady state so that all long-term effects were properly accounted for. Yield response curves to N were similarly derived from long-term experiments. Crop nutrient inputs and plant protection applications were derived from national survey data and the literature. All major inputs were accounted for including fertiliser extraction| manufacture and delivery; pesticide manufacture; field fuel use; machinery and building manufacture; crop drying| cooling and storage. The current balance of production systems were found from survey data. The weighted mean national production was calculated from a combination of three rainfall levels and soil textures. The system boundary is the farm gate. The functional unit is 1 t marketable fresh weight of each product. The primary energy needs for the producing the three main crops were 2.4| 4.9 and 1.4 GJ/t for bread wheat| oilseed rape and potatoes| respectively. When expressed in terms of dry matter| protein or energy| wheat incurred smaller burdens than oilseed rape| which incurred lower burdens than potatoes. The crops do| of course| all play different roles. Organically produced bread wheat needed about 80% of the energy of non-organic| while organic potatoes needed 13% more energy than non-organically produced ones. While pesticide use was always lower in organic production| other burdens were generally inconsistently higher or lower. Land occupation was always higher for organic production. Lower fertiliser use (and hence energy use) in organic systems is offset by more energy for fieldwork and lower yields. Main crop potato energy needs are dominated by cold storage. Reducing the N application rate for bread wheat production reduces energy use and GWP. The optimum for energy is with N at about 70% of the current level. It seems to be lower for GWP| but the sub-models used are beyond their range of reliability. The results are generally of the same order as those from other European studies. Arable crop production depends heavily on fossil fuel in current major production systems. The emissions causing GWP are very dependent on nitrous oxide| more so than fuel consumption. That| together with emissions of ammonia and nitrate| means that agriculture has a C-N footprint rather than the C footprint that typifies most industrial life. With the large influence of nitrous oxide on GWP| evaluation of nitrous oxide emissions by another method| e.g. crop-soil simulation modelling instead of the more rigid IPCC method would improve the robustness of the analysis. The transition between farming systems was not included in this study| but there could be short to medium term benefits of converting from non-organic to organic methods that should be evaluated. System modelling allows alternative production methods to be readily explored and this greatly enhances LCA methodology. 11056,2010,3,3,Environmental consequences of different beef production systems in the EU,The aim of this paper is to examine the environmental consequences of beef meat production in the EU| using a life cycle approach. Four beef production systems were studied - three from intensively reared dairy calves and one from suckler herds. According to the results of the analysis| the contributions from the production of 1 kg beef meat (slaughter weight) to global warming| acidification| eutrophication| land use and non-renewable energy use were lower for beef from dairy calves than from suckler herds (16.0-19.9 versus 27.3 kg CO(2)e| 101-173 versus 210 g SO(2)e| 622-1140 versus 1651 g NO(3)e| 16.5-22.7 versus 42.9 m(2)year| and 41.3-48.2 versus 59.2 MJ| respectively). The breakdown analysis helped identify the key areas in the "cradle to farm gate" beef production system where sustainable management strategies are needed to improve environmental performance. The study also included a sensitivity analysis to preliminarily estimate GHG emissions from beef production systems if land opportunity cost and land use change related to grazing and feed crop production for beef were taken into account. If so| the contribution from the production of 1 kg beef to global warming would increase by a factor of 3.1-3.9| based on a depreciation period of 20 years. This highlights the importance of taking into account the impacts of land use in assessing the environmental impacts of livestock production. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10626,2010,3,4,Environmental degradation costs in electricity generation: The case of the Brazilian electrical matrix,The main purpose of this paper is to emphasize the importance of including environmental degradation costs in the long-term planning of the Brazilian electricity sector. To this aim| environmental external costs associated to both hydro-power and thermal-power electricity generation are investigated. Monetary valuation methodologies are applied and environmental degradation costs| expressed in per kWh of generated energy| are obtained for the main types of generation sources of the Brazilian electricity matrix. Both local pollution due to particulate matter emissions and global warming effects are assessed. A classification of the sources from the point of view of their impact on the environment is given. Degradation costs associated to the installed capacity expansion in the Brazilian electricity sector during the time horizon 2007-2016 are estimated. These resulting costs represent lower boundary damage estimates associated only with the energy to be generated during the period. Results indicate that local pollution caused by a small number of plants could be even more costly to society than global warming and| also| show the importance of considering not only unitary damage costs but the participation of each source on the generated energy during the time horizon| as a guide to planning and policy making. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 654,2010,2,4,Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report| 2009,The parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP)| which deals with UV radiation and its effects on human health| animals| plants| biogeochemistry| air quality and materials. Since 2000| the analyses and interpretation of these effects have included interactions between UV radiation and global climate change. When considering the effects of climate change| it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than believed previously. As a result of this| human health and environmental problems will likely be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other panels| the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was that for 2006 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci.| 2007| 6| 201-332). In the years in between| the EEAP produces a less detailed and shorter progress report| as is the case for this present one for 2009. A full quadrennial report will follow for 2010. 349,2010,2,4,Environmental Effects on Temperature Stress Resistance in the Tropical Butterfly Bicyclus Anynana,Background: The ability to withstand thermal stress is considered to be of crucial importance for individual fitness and species' survival. Thus| organisms need to employ effective mechanisms to ensure survival under stressful thermal conditions| among which phenotypic plasticity is considered a particularly quick and effective one. Methodology/Principal Findings: In a series of experiments we here investigate phenotypic adjustment in temperature stress resistance following environmental manipulations in the butterfly Bicyclus anynana. Cooler compared to warmer acclimation temperatures generally increased cold but decreased heat stress resistance and vice versa. In contrast| short-time hardening responses revealed more complex patterns| with| e.g.| cold stress resistance being highest at intermediate hardening temperatures. Adult food stress had a negative effect on heat but not on cold stress resistance. Additionally| larval feeding treatment showed interactive effects with adult feeding for heat but not for cold stress resistance| indicating that nitrogenous larval resources may set an upper limit to performance under heat stress. In contrast to expectations| cold resistance slightly increased during the first eight days of adult life. Light cycle had marginal effects on temperature stress resistance only| with cold resistance tending to be higher during daytime and thus active periods. Conclusions/Significance: Our results highlight that temperature-induced plasticity provides an effective tool to quickly and strongly modulate temperature stress resistance| and that such responses are readily reversible. However| resistance traits are not only affected by ambient temperature| but also by| e.g.| food availability and age| making their measurement challenging. The latter effects are largely underexplored and deserve more future attention. Owing to their magnitude| plastic responses in thermal tolerance should be incorporated into models trying to forecast effects of global change on extant biodiversity. 10586,2010,3,4,Environmental impact analysis of BCHP system in different climate zones in China,The operation performance of building cooling| heating and power (BCHP) system is dependent on the seasonal atmospheric conditions. This paper presents the environmental impact models of separation production (SP) system and BCHP system respectively. Three most important energy-related environmental issues| global warming| acid precipitation and stratospheric ozone depletion| are considered to evaluate the environmental impact of BCHP system for a commercial building located in five climate zones| China. Because the global emissions of BCHP system are related to the central power plant that provides the additional electricity to building| the environmental impacts by coal-fired and gas-fired power plants are compared and discussed. The results indicate that the emission reduction potential of BCHP system over SP system in hot summer zone and mild zone is larger than in severe cold zone when the coal-fired power plant is used. Contrarily| BCHP system in severe cold zone reduces more emissions than in hot summer zone when the gas-fired power plant provides the additional electricity. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11477,2010,3,4,Environmental impact assessment of non-wood based pulp production by soda-anthraquinone pulping process,Paper pulp manufacturing is the main non-food industrial utilization of plant biomass. Non-wood and agricultural residues are potential raw materials in the production of specialty papers. This chapter aims to quantify the environmental impacts associated with non-wood high quality paper pulp manufacture via soda-anthraquinone (AQ) cooking process by means of the application of LCA methodology in a cradle-to-gate analysis. Hemp (Cannabis sativa) and Flax (Linum usitatissimum) were evaluated as raw materials for the production of high quality non-porous pulp. A specialty paper pulp mill was analysed in detail and process chain was divided in six subsystems: agricultural activities| chemicals production| electricity production| transport| pulp production and waste treatment. Inventory data came from interviews and Surveys (on-site measurements). When necessary| the data were completed with bibliographic resources. Abiotic resources depletion (AD)| global warming (GW). ozone layer depletion (OLD)| human toxicity (HT)| ecotoxicity| photochemical oxidant formation (POF)| acidification (A) and eutrophication (E) were the impact categories analysed in this study. According to the results| the environmental impact is mainly caused by the production of chemicals| electricity and fibres (agricultural activities) due to greenhouse gases emissions| phosphorous and nitrogen compounds emissions. The activities inside the pulp mill present minor contribution to almost all impact categories| excluding GW (15%) and E (6%) as well as OLD (25%). This study provides useful information for non-wood based industries related not only to pulp manufacture but also to panels or biorefineries with the aim of increasing their sustainability. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11234,2010,2,3,Environmental impact of cement production: detail of the different processes and cement plant variability evaluation,This study evaluates the environmental impact of the cement production and its variations between different cement plants| using Life Cycle Impact Assessment. For that purpose| details of the cement production processes are investigated in order to show the respective part of raw materials preparation and clinker production using environmental impacts calculated with CML01 indicators. For the kiln emission data| a European pollutant emission register for French intensive industries is used to quantify the variability of indicators between cement plants. For the CML01 indicators that are controlled by kiln emissions| some of them (i.e. global warming| photochemical oxidation) show variations between cement plants between 20 and 30%| as for other (i.e. acidification| eutrophication| terrestrial ecotoxicity) variations are greater than 40% due to the lack of accurate measurements on both pollutant content and annual flow. Finally| a normalisation| using Western Europe yearly emissions is performed and permits to highlight among all the CML01 indicators which ones are the main impacts for the cement production. Abiotic depletion| global warming| acidification and marine ecotoxicity are the four identified impacts. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10773,2010,3,4,Environmental impact of four meals with different protein sources: Case studies in Spain and Sweden,The production of food protein has a considerable impact on the environment. This paper investigates the potential environmental benefits of introducing more grain legumes in human nutrition. Four meals with different amounts of soybeans or peas (either used as feed for production of pork or directly consumed) were analysed using life cycle assessment methodology. The results of this analysis demonstrate that it is environmentally favourable to replace meat with peas. In particular| the addition of more legumes to human nutrition potentially aids in the reduction of global warming| eutrophication| acidification| and land use; however| in terms of energy use| a completely vegetarian pea burger meal requires the same amount of energy as other meat-containing meals. Feeding pigs with European-produced peas instead of imported soybeans| in addition to partial replacement (10%) of meat protein with pea protein| failed to reduce the environmental impact of the meal. In summary| peas can be considered 'green'| but there remains a significant need for more energy-efficient processing of vegetarian products. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10688,2010,2,4,Environmental impact of mining activities on the surface water quality in Tibet: Gyama valley,Nearly 20 years of industrial scale metal mining operations in Tibet have caused an impact on the region's surface water quality. However| no information with respect to the pollution has been provided to the public. The aim of this work was to evaluate the chemical quality of the stream water and to assess the present and future potential risks of acid mine drainage to the regional and downstream environments. This study| based on data collected in 2006| 2007 and 2008 in the Gyama valley| using the Environmental Risk Index (I(ER)) documents that elevated concentrations of Cu| Pb| Zn| Mn| Fe and Al in the surface water and streambed at the upper/middle part of the valley pose a considerably high risk to the local environment. In contrast| the risk level at the stream source area is zero and only minor risk at the lower reaches. The iron and copper contamination of the upper/middle part of the river appears to be both natural and accelerated by the mining activities. The level of dissolved contaminants in the water decreases within short distance downstream due to precipitation and sorption to the streambed and strong dilution by a tributary stream and eventually by the Lhasa River. A high content of heavy metals in the stream sediments as well as in a number of tailings with gangue and material from the ore processing| poses a great potential threat to the downstream water users. Environmental changes such as global warming or increased mining activity may increase the mobility of these pools of heavy metals. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11069,2010,3,4,Environmental impacts of conventional plastic and bio-based carrier bags,Worldwide| the production of biodegradable and compostable plastics has steadily grown. In Part 1 (Khoo et al. 2010)| life cycle assessment (LCA) was applied to compare the production stages of a bio-based bag (made from polyhydroxyalkanoate or bio-plastic (PHA)) with polyethylene plastic bag. The scope of the study is within the context of Singapore and does not include other types of conventional or bio-based polymers (e.g.| polylactic acid (PLA)| thermoplastics| high-density polyethylene (HDPE)| EPS| etc). This article (part 2) proposes to investigate the end-of-life options of both bags. For part 2| the same LCA methodology is used for the investigation. The LCA system for part 2 starts with disposal options: (1) land filling at Singapore's offshore Semakau Island| (2) incineration| and the (3) composting of bio-bag. Two useful products| energy and compost| will be produced from options 2 and 3| respectively. While the energy from the incineration of both bags are fed back into the LCA production stage| compost from bio-bags can be used as a peat substitute| thus generating carbon dioxide savings from reduced peat production. The end-of-life environmental impacts were generated for global warming potential| acidification| and photochemical ozone formation. A landfill impact| based on Singapore's offshore landfill capacity| was also generated. Next| the environmental impacts of the entire life cycle of both products are calculated for a few scenarios-from cradle-to-grave. The highest end-of-life impacts are observed from the land filling of bio-bags. Next highest disposal impacts are from incineration| and least of all (minimal) from the composting of bio-bags. The greenhouse gas savings from peat substitutes derived from the compost material is rather insignificant. Overall| the cradle-to-grave results demonstrates that the environmental burdens generated from any of the disposal options are less significant compared to those from both products' life cycle production stages. Unless plans for energy recovery systems are in place| the least preferred route for the disposal of bio-bags are at landfills. From the trend of the final cradle-to-grave results| it can be claimed that the life cycle production of bio-bags from PHA can only be considered as environmentally friendly alternatives to conventional plastic bags if clean energy sources are supplied throughout its production processes. This claim was in agreement with other LCA work carried out for the life cycle production of PHA| with the supply of energy by corn stover waste or the consideration of wind power supply in the replacement of grid electricity. It was also observed| however| that some of the results in this article vary from other LCA work carried out by other authors. Some of the reasons included variations in LCA scope and the different range of materials investigated (PLA| HDPE| and thermoplastic starch). Presently| the wide range of LCA work carried out on biodegradable polymers differs considerably in the amount of reported background data and the level of detail concerning the LCA system and production methods. A globally accepted as well as concerted effort to describe in detail the life cycle production steps involved| disposal options| type of energy supplied to the production chain| for a well-selected range of polymer materials should be conducted. Meanwhile| it is recommended that a conservative approach is required in introducing bio-based carrier bags as a solution for solving plastic waste issues. Future LCA investigations should also look into the reuse of carrier bags| which is anticipated to bring much greater environmental and sustainable benefit than the replacement of bio-bags with plastic ones. 11247,2010,3,4,Environmental impacts of conventional plastic and bio-based carrier bags,The use of bio-based products as carrier bags| packaging materials| and many other applications has been increasingly replacing conventional polymer products. One of the main driving forces of bio-plastic applications is the perceived depletion and scarcity of fossil fuels| especially petroleum. However| despite being introduced as an environmentally friendly alternative to plastics made from crude oil| the environmental benefits of bio-plastics remain debatable. This article serves to investigate whether or not bio-based materials are environmentally friendlier options compared to plastics and attempts to explain the rationale of the results. The production and disposal of both conventional plastic and bio-plastic carrier bags are investigated using life cycle assessment or LCA. A typical bio-based bag (made from polyhydroxyalkanoate or PHA) from the U.S. was selected to be compared with a locally produced polyethylene plastic (PP) bag in Singapore. In the LCA system| the raw materials for making polyethylene came from crude oil imported from Middle East and natural gas piped from Natuna gas field. The refinery and PP bag production processes are based in Singapore. Bio-bag production was entirely in the U.S.| and the finished product was shipped to Singapore. The impact assessment results were generated for global warming potential| acidification| and photochemical ozone formation. Next| normalized results were calculated according to the parameters of Singapore's annual emission inventory. The total environmental impacts of bio-bags showed considerable differences under various energy scenarios. When the energy expenditures to make bio-bags are supplied by U.S. electricity mix| the production impacts are about 69% higher| compared to the impacts from PP bags. With coal-fired power supply| the production impacts from bio-bag production turned out to be about five times greater than those from conventional plastics. The life cycle production impacts of PP bags are comparable to bio-bags when the energy supplied to the bio-material production chain is supplied by natural gas. Bio-bags are 80% more environmentally friendly than plastic bags when clean and renewable energy (geothermal) is used throughout its life cycle production stages. By the use of LCA with different energy scenarios| this article sheds some light on the extent of environmental benefits (or drawbacks) of replacing plastic carrier bags with PHA bags. It was concluded that the life cycle production of bio-bags can only be considered as environmentally friendly alternatives to conventional plastic bags if clean energy sources are supplied throughout its production processes. It was also highlighted that the results should not be viewed as a global representative since the case study scope was for Singapore alone. Additional work by others on different biodegradable and compostable bags vary in results. Some of the complexities of such work lie in what is included or excluded from the scope and the adoption of different environmental impact assessment methods. Nevertheless| the authors' attempt to compare the two bags may serve as a basis for identifying the major environmental burdens of such materials' life cycle production. Although bio-based products have been mostly regarded as a sustainable solution for replacing petroleum-based polymers| in most cases| the amounts of resources and energy required to produce them have not been taken into account. Before bio-based plastics can be recommended as a preferred option to plastics| a few challenges have to be overcome. The main issue lies in reducing the energy used in the life cycle production of the bio-material from crops. The environmental benefits and drawbacks of both materials should also be more clearly highlighted by expanding the system boundary to include end-of-life options; this is carried out in part 2 (Khoo and Tan| Int J Life Cycle Assess| in press| 2010). 10721,2010,3,3,Environmental impacts of disposable cups with special focus on the effect of material choices and end of life,Life cycle thinking is emphasised in EU policies and legislation. All products have environmental impacts during their production| use and disposal. It is important to ensure that environmental impacts are considered throughout the life-cycle and it will be more and more important for the industry to understand the meaning of the life cycle thinking and to adopt it. The environmental impacts of an industrial disposable cup concept were studied with help of life-cycle assessment method. The objective of the study was to create new knowledge about the life cycle effects of the carton based cup concept. The scope of the study was to compare the effects of material choices and different end-of-life scenarios. The paper focuses on the global warming potential of the cup concept The carton based products were covered either with polyethene or polylactide. In addition| the environmental impacts of the carton-based cups were compared to the estimated environmental impacts of polymer-based cups. The polymer based cups were made of polyethylene terephthalate. The paper shows that significant improvements can be achieved with help of the choice of materials and optimal end of life. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10612,2010,3,3,Environmental inventory modelling of the use of compost and peat in growth media preparation,Compost produced from biological treatment of organic waste has a potential for substituting peat in growth media preparation. The life-cycle-inventories (LCIs) of the two alternatives were compared using LCA-modelling (EASEWASTE) considering a 100-year period and a volumetric substitution ratio of 1:1. For the compost alternative| the composting process| growth media use| and offsetting of mineral fertilizers were considered. For the peat alternative| peatland preparation| excavation| transportation| and growth media use were considered. It was assumed that for compost 14% of the initial carbon was left in the soil after 100 years| while all carbon in peat was mineralized. With respect to greenhouse gas emissions| the former is considered a saving| while the later is considered an emission| because peat in a peatland is considered stored biogenic carbon. The leaching during the growth media use was assessed by means of batch leaching tests involving 4 compost samples and 7 peat samples. The compost leached 3-20 times more heavy metals and other compounds than the peat. The life-cycle-assessment showed that compost performs better regarding global warming (savings in the range of 70-150 kg CO(2)-eq. Mg(-1)) and nutrient enrichment (savings in the range of 1.7-6.8 kg NO(3) Mg(-1) compost)| while peat performs better in some toxic categories| because of the lower content of heavy metals. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11317,2010,3,3,Environmental motivation to switch to thermoacoustic refrigeration,Since modern refrigeration technologies were introduced in the early 19th century| their use has significantly increased. In fact it is now almost impossible imagine life without refrigeration and air conditioning. Currently| cooling is primarily achieved with vapor compression machines that use a specific refrigerant that can be tailored to any required temperature level. To achieve these properties| blend of hydrogen| carbon| fluorine and chlorine in various mixing ratios are utilized. Depending on those ratios| the refrigerant exhibits a specific set of properties in regard to refrigeration| but also a global warming potential and an ozone depletion potential. Since the adverse effects of those substances have been discovered| the field of refrigeration is moving away from conventional refrigerants| constant searching for better alternatives. Thermoacoustic refrigeration is such an alternative that can provide cooling to essentially any required temperature level without using any environmentally harmful substances. It is a niche technology that can be expanded into a broader market| primarily if the sizing problem can be solved. Currently| the most efficient thermoacoustic refrigerators are used in industrial settings. As an example| this work illustrates the benefits of this technology with a consideration of its Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) compared to conventional cooling in vehicles| which is shown to be a potential target application. Also| additional target applications are suggested. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11490,2010,3,3,Environmental performance of building materials: life cycle assessment of a typical Sicilian marble,The building sector is strategically important for achieving sustainability. Therefore| the improvement of energy and environmental performances are relevant targets because precious building materials such as marble have a significant impact on the environment. The aim of this paper is an analysis of a typical Sicilian marble (Perlato di Sicilia) to evaluate its energy and environmental performance. Marble plays an important role in the economy of Italy and has a global market share of 58% in terms of exports. For the main production areas of marble| relevant environmental performance data are missing except for one region (Tuscany-Massa e Carrara province). Perlato di Sicilia| the main marble of Custonaci (Sicily)| has never been analyzed previously. Life cycle assessment (LCA) according to ISO 14040/44 is applied to marble tiles and slabs. For the life cycle inventory| data were collected from a representative plant in the Custonaci basin. In this small area of 69 km(2)| about 54 quarries and related cutting plants are concentrated. The impact assessment includes the following categories: global warming potential (GWP)| acidification potential (AP)| eutrophication potential (EP)| and photochemical oxidation (POCP)| following the CML-IA baseline 2007. The results of the impact assessment for 1 mA(3) of marble tiles are 314.8 kg CO(2eq) of GWP| 1.19 kg SO(2eq) of AP| 0.073 g PO(4---eq) of EP| and 0.046 kg ethylene(eq) of POCP. For slabs| the corresponding results were 200.1 kg CO(2eq) of GWP| 0.77 kg SO(2eq) of AP| 0.053 kg PO(4---eq) of EP| and 0.029 kg ethylene(eq) of POCP. The total embodied energy values of tiles and slabs are| respectively| 1|772 MJ/m(3) and 1|168 MJ/m(3). This comparison shows that tiles manufacturing has higher values of embodied energy and environmental performance indicators. The value of the Custonaci slabs is reasonable compared to the Carrara marble (mainly slabs)| and the embodied energy value of which is between 698 MJ/m(3) and 1|414 MJ/m(3). The main contribution to the energy consumption is due to electricity demand: 80% for tiles and 75% for slabs. Moreover| a comparison with the European type I Ecolabel criteria for natural hard floor coverings has been carried out to understand the range of the environmental impacts of Perlato di Sicilia compared to the thresholds reported in European Decision 272/2002. This study is the first LCA of a typical Sicilian marble. The environmental interventions of the Custonaci marble appear to be slightly higher than Carrara marble. The nature of Custonaci marble and the technology involved in its production have reached the same performance level as in Carrara. Nevertheless| Custonaci marble is on the way to being an environmentally friendly product| as is shown by the comparison with Ecolabel criteria. The hot spots determined in this study are: the amount of spoils produced during the extraction step| the disposal of sludge resulting from cutting and finishing directly in the sawmill| the lack of the water recycling treatment in the quarry itself (as outlined in the European Ecolabel criteria)| and the high electricity consumption. 11127,2010,3,4,Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia| Spain,The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling| recycling and incineration| and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also| the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in terms of the Global Warming Potential| the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling| followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator| we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling| even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types| than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary| data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11200,2010,3,4,Environmental performance of lignocellulosic bioethanol production from Alfalfa stems,A 'well-to-wheel' analysis was conducted for bioethanol obtained from alfalfa stems by means of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. This analysis was compared with two blends of conventional gasoline with bioethanol (E10 and E85)| all used in a mid-size car. A biochemical process including enzymatic hydrolysis and simultaneous saccharification and fermentation was considered. The life cycles of the fuels include gasoline production| alfalfa agriculture| lignocellulosic bioethanol production| blend production| and finally the use of fuels. The production of the alfalfa plant has two products: high-protein leaves for animal feed (the main driving force) and high-fiber stems. In this study| we assumed two allocation procedures based on mass and protein content| the latter reflecting the greater value of the leaves. According to the results| the use of bioethanol-based fuels leads to reduced global warming potential. A reduction in fossil fuel extraction of up to 72% could be achieved when pure bioethanol is used as transport fuel. On the contrary| bioethanol fuels are not the most suitable option when assessing acidification| eutrophication| and photochemical oxidant formation impact categories| mainly due to the higher impact from the upstream processes (specifically agricultural activities). LCA methodology helped to identify the key areas in the bioethanol production where researchers and technicians need to work to improve the environmental performance| paying special attention to enzyme production| onsite energy generation and distillation processes as well as agricultural activities. (C) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons| Ltd 11038,2010,3,3,Environmental profile of ethanol from poplar biomass as transport fuel in Southern Europe,Liquid biofuels provide one of the few options for fossil fuel substitution in the short to medium-term and they are strongly being promoted by the European Union as transport fuel (such as ethanol) since they have the potential to offer both greenhouse gas (GHG) savings and energy security. A "well to wheel" analysis has been conducted for poplar based ethanol by means of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. The aim of the analysis is to assess the environmental performance of three ethanol applications (E10| E85 and E100) in comparison with conventional gasoline. To compare the environmental profiles| the study addressed the impact potentials per kilometre driven by a middle size passenger car| taking into account the performance difference between ethanol blends and gasoline. According to the results of this study| fuel ethanol derived from poplar biomass may help to reduce the contributions to global warming| abiotic resources depletion and ozone layer depletion up to 62%| 72% and 36% respectively. Reductions of fossil fuel extraction of up to 80% could be achieved when pure ethanol is used. On the contrary| contributions to other impact categories would be increased| specifically to acidification and eutrophication. In both categories| ethanol based blends are less environmentally friendly than conventional gasoline due to the higher impact from the upstream activities. Research focussed on the reduction of the environmental impacts should be pointed forward poplar cultivation as well as ethanol conversion plant (enzyme manufacturing| energy production and distillation). In this study poplar cultivation was really intensive in order to obtain a high yield. Strategic planning according to the location of the crops and its requirements should help to reduce these impacts from its cultivation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10584,2010,2,4,Environmental Symbiont Acquisition May Not Be the Solution to Warming Seas for Reef-Building Corals,Background: Coral reefs worldwide are in decline. Much of the mortality can be attributed to coral bleaching (loss of the coral's intracellular photosynthetic algal symbiont) associated with global warming. How corals will respond to increasing oceanic temperatures has been an area of extensive study and debate. Recovery after a bleaching event is dependent on regaining symbionts| but the source of repopulating symbionts is poorly understood. Possibilities include recovery from the proliferation of endogenous symbionts or recovery by uptake of exogenous stress-tolerant symbionts. Methodology/Principal Findings: To test one of these possibilities| the ability of corals to acquire exogenous symbionts| bleached colonies of Porites divaricata were exposed to symbiont types not normally found within this coral and symbiont acquisition was monitored. After three weeks exposure to exogenous symbionts| these novel symbionts were detected in some of the recovering corals| providing the first experimental evidence that scleractinian corals are capable of temporarily acquiring symbionts from the water column after bleaching. However| the acquisition was transient| indicating that the new symbioses were unstable. Only those symbiont types present before bleaching were stable upon recovery| demonstrating that recovery was from the resident in situ symbiont populations. Conclusions/Significance: These findings suggest that some corals do not have the ability to adjust to climate warming by acquiring and maintaining exogenous| more stress-tolerant symbionts. This has serious ramifications for the success of coral reefs and surrounding ecosystems and suggests that unless actions are taken to reverse it| climate change will lead to decreases in biodiversity and a loss of coral reefs. 11452,2010,3,4,Environmentally friendly tribology (Eco-tribology),The Earth is facing many serious environmental problems. The global warming problem has reached a point at which action cannot be delayed. It is necessary not only to expect novel technological development but also to create realistic solutions by extending conventional technologies. Tribology has supported various technological developments over the years and has also responded promptly to societal demands for decreasing substances from engineering products that would be hazardous to the environment. As societies aim to become sustainable| tribology needs to be involved and contribute to the solution more than ever before. Environmentally friendly tribology| eco-tribology| through progress in surface modification| is seen to be an effective engineering technology that can contribute very much to sustainable societies. Multi-scale surface texturing| which is a new concept of surface modification for tribo-materials| and diamond-like carbon (DLC) coating technology were introduced as the expected future development. 415,2010,5,4,Eocene north-south trending dikes in central Tibet: New constraints on the timing of east-west extension with implications for early plateau uplift?,East-west extension has been a prominent feature of Cenozoic tectonics in central-southern Tibet| and the onset of this extension has been interpreted as indicating the surface uplift of the Tibetan Plateau to a critical level. Previous studies suggested that extension started in the Neogene between 18-13 Ma and 8 Ma| based on dating results from north-south trending normal faults| grabens or rifts| and dikes. We report here the discovery of widespread north-south trending diabase and andesitic porphyry dikes in and around the Shuang Hu graben| central Tibet| where crustal extension has previously been argued to start from 13.5 Ma based on mineral ages from graben-bounding faults. Our results show that dikes in this area were mainly formed in the Eocene (47-38 Ma). Geochemical and Nd-Sr isotopic data suggest that the diabase dikes originated from partial melting of an enriched lithospheric mantle source metasomatized by melts from subducted continental crust| and the andesitic porphyry dikes were probably derived from interactions between the subducted continental crust-derived melts and the mantle. Given that north-south trending Eocene dikes are found widely dispersed in central Tibet| we argue that the onset of east-west extension| and likely regional uplift of the Tibetan Plateau| began much earlier than previously thought. Our study implies that a large part of the Tibetan Plateau had already attained near-maximum elevation in the Eocene and is consistent with recent investigations regarding the Middle-Late Eocene (47-34 Ma) initiation of aridification in Asia| evidence from contemporary global oceanic O-Sr isotope curves and temperatures| and the carbon cycle. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11423,2010,3,3,Equality and CO(2) emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling,The equity implications of alternative climate policy measures are an essential issue to be considered in the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions and income distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis Of CO(2) emissions distribution| a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with the popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model RICE99 over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies| the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities in the distribution of emissions and income and that their magnitude will essentially depend on technological change. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11118,2010,4,4,Estimated photochemical ozone creation potentials (POCPs) of CF(3)CF = CH(2) (HFO-1234yf) and related hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs),The photochemical ozone creation potentials (POCPs) for CF(3)CF=CH(2) and other commercially significant hydrofluoroolefins have been estimated for the first time. CF(3)CF=CH(2) (HFO-1234yf) has a POCP of 7.0 which is less than that for ethane (12.3) and greater than for methane (0.6). Methane and ethane have sufficiently low POCPs that they are usually considered unreactive with respect to ozone formation in urban areas and accordingly are exempt from volatile organic compound (VOC) emission regulations. Estimated POCPs for other hydrofluoroolefins are: CH(2)=CF(2)| 18.0; CF(2)=CF(2)| 12.5; CH(2)=CHCF(3)| 10.7; CF(2)=CFCF(3)| 5.4; Z-CHF=CFCF(3)| 5.6; E-CHF=CFCF(3)| 7.3; CH(2)=CHCF(2)CF(3)| 6.6; and t-CHF=CHCF(3)| 6.4. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10933,2010,4,2,Estimating possible impact of human activity on the warm season temperature in Beijing since the industrial era,Global surface temperature shows an increasing trend over the past 100 years. Anthropogenic and natural factors have been invoked to explain this warming| but their relative contribution and the spatial variability remain controversial. Based on a 2650-year temperature record from a stalagmite near Beijing| we explore the possible impacts of human activity on the warm season temperature in Beijing since the industrial era using the method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The results suggest that the warm season temperature in Beijing under the natural forcing should have an overall decreasing trend for the past 130 years (1870 to 2000 AD) with an amplitude of 0.45 +/- 0.84 degrees C| while the instrumental record and stalagmite data show an increase of 1.08 degrees C. These imply that human activity would have caused an increase in the warm season temperature of Beijing for about 1.53 +/- 0.84 degrees C compared to its natural trends| from 1870 AD to 2000 AD. Our results also suggest that anthropogenic forcing began to significantly influence the temperature since 1870 AD| and the effect further intensified since 1915 AD. 11182,2010,3,3,Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972-2002: Best estimates| uncertainties and research needs,Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented| accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG)| which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest| we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks| and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (+/- 13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt ( +/- 18%). By applying a long-term forest change model| we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (+/- 18%)| rising from 24 Mt ( +/- 15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging| rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest| and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10567,2010,2,4,Estimating the climate impact of linear contrails using the UK Met Office climate model,The HadGEM2 global climate model is employed to investigate some of the linear contrail effects on climate. Our study parameterizes linear contrails as a thin layer of aerosol. We find that at 100 times the air traffic of year 2000| linear contrails would change the equilibrium global-mean temperature by +0.13 K| corresponding to a climate sensitivity of 0.3 K/(Wm(-2)) and a climate efficacy of 31% (significantly smaller than the only previously published estimate of 59%). Our model suggests that contrails cause a slight warming of the surface and| as noted by most global warming modelling studies| land areas are affected more than the oceans. Also| unlike the contrail coverage and radiative forcing| the contrail temperature change response is not geographically correlated with air traffic patterns. In terms of the contrail impact on precipitation| the main feature is the northern shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. Finally| our model strongly indicates that the contrail impact on both the diurnal temperature range and regional climate is significantly smaller than some earlier studies suggested. Citation: Rap| A.| P. M. Forster| J. M. Haywood| A. Jones| and O. Boucher (2010)| Estimating the climate impact of linear contrails using the UK Met Office climate model| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L20703| doi:10.1029/2010GL045161. 11162,2010,3,4,Estimation of automobile emissions and control strategies in India,Rapid| but unplanned urban development and the consequent urban sprawl coupled with economic growth have aggravated auto dependency in India over the last two decades. This has resulted in congestion and pollution in cities. The central and state governments have taken many ameliorative measures to reduce vehicular emissions. However| evolution of scientific methods for emission inventory is crucial. Therefore| an attempt has been made to estimate the emissions (running and start) from on-road vehicles in Chennai using IVE model in this paper. GPS was used to collect driving patterns. The estimated emissions from motor vehicles in Chennai in 2005 were 431| 119| 46| 7| 4575| 29| and 0.41 tons/days respectively for CO| VOC| NO(x)| PM| CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O. It is observed from the results that air quality in Chennai has degraded. The estimation revealed that two and three-wheelers emitted about 64% of the total CO emissions and heavy-duty vehicles accounted for more than 60% and 36% of the NO(x) and PM emissions respectively. About 19% of total emissions were that of start emissions. It is also estimated that on-road transport contributes about 6637 tons/day CO(2) equivalent in Chennai. This paper has further examined various mitigation options to reduce vehicular emissions. The study has concluded that advanced vehicular technology and augmentation of public transit would have significant impact on reducing vehicular emissions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10460,2010,2,4,Estimation of Changes in Full Bloom Date of 'Niitaka' Pear Time with Global Warming,This study investigated the effect of global warming on full bloom date (FBD) of 'Niitaka' pear (Pyrus pyrifolia Nakai) tree by calculating the development stage index by hourly temperatures recorded at Pear Research Station| estimating the distribution of average FBD and the change of FBD according to temperature rising by integrating development rate at 67 locations in Korea Meteorological Administration site. Development stage index of 'Niitaka' pear tree was 0.9593 at Naju location. Differences between full bloom dates observed at Cheonan region and predictions by development stage index were 0-7 days| and matched year was 35.3%. FBDs of 67 locations were distributed from April 4 to May 28. When yearly temperature was raised 1| 2| 3| 4| and 5 degrees C at 67 locations| predicted FBD was accelerated at most of the locations. However| FBD decelerated at south coast locations from 3 degrees C rise and did not bloom at 'Gosan'| 'Seogwipo'| and 'Jeju' locations from 4 degrees C rise. When monthly temperature was raised 1| 3| and 5 degrees C at 67 locations| predicted FBD was the most accelerated at March temperature rise| and followed by April| February| January and December. Therefore| global warming will cause acceleration of the full bloom date at pear production areas in Korea. 10776,2010,3,2,Estimation of critical CO(2) values when planning the power source in water desalination: The case of the small Aegean islands,Climate change is one of the most important issues our world faces today and it is responsible for a number of natural disasters that threaten human life and existence. Carbon dioxide| produced from almost every energy consuming activity| is the dominant greenhouse gas responsible for global warming. Water desalination is an energy intensive activity| and when it is powered by conventional energy sources| significant amounts of CO(2) are released. For every cubic metre of fresh water produced| there is a 2 kg of CO(2) reduction if renewable energy sources (RES) are used instead of electricity from the local grid. On the other hand| the cost of fresh water produced by desalination is much less if conventional sources of energy are used. Making appropriate policy choices require information on both costs and benefits. So here we estimate the critical CO(2) cost| above which desalination units should use renewable energy instead of conventional energy sources. It was found that the critical CO(2) emissions cost can be close to the CO(2) capture cost and in many cases less than the penalties imposed by the European Commission. Several case studies of water desalination in the Aegean islands verify the conclusions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11206,2010,2,4,Estimation of glacier depth and moraine cover study using ground penetrating radar (GPR) in the Himalayan region,Himalayan region has one of the largest concentrations of mountain glaciers whose areal extent is changing due to global warming. In order to assess future changes in glacier extent due to global warming| information about glacier depth and debris cover is important. In this paper| application of ground penetrating radar (GPR) is discussed to assess glacier depth and debris cover. This investigation was carried out at Patseo and Samudratapu glaciers in Himachal Pradesh (West Himalaya). Antennas of frequency 50 and 100 MHz have been used for glacier depth and 500 MHz for moraine depth estimation. GPR signatures of glaciers were collected and further analyzed using velocities of electromagnetic waves in different media. The depth of Patseo glacier was estimated as 40 m. However| depth of the larger Samudra Tapu glacier could not be estimated using 50 and 100 MHz antennas. The depth of moraines was estimated using 500 MHz antenna and it varies from 0.35 cm to 0.85 cm for medial and around 1-2 m for lateral moraine at the experimental site. 11303,2010,3,3,Estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice field with rice straw management in Cambodia,To estimate the greenhouse gas emissions from paddy fields of Cambodia| the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines| IPCC coefficients| and emission factors from the experiment in Thailand and another country were used. Total area under rice cultivation during the years 2005-2006 was 2|048|360 ha in the first crop season and 298|529 ha in the second crop season. The emission of methane from stubble incorporation with manure plus fertilizer application areas in the first crop season was estimated to be 192|783.74 ton higher than stubble with manure| stubble with fertilizer| and stubble without fertilizer areas. The fields with stubble burning emitted the highest emission of methane (75|771.29 ton) followed by stubble burning with manure (22|251.08 ton)| stubble burning with fertilizer (13|213.27 ton)| and stubble burning with fertilizer application areas (3|222.22 ton). The total emission of methane from rice field in Cambodia for the years 2005-2006 was approximately 342|649.26 ton (342.65 Gg) in the first crop season and 36|838.88 ton (36.84 Gg) in the second crop season. During the first crop season in the years 2005-2006| Battambang province emitted the highest amount of CH(4) (38|764.48 ton) and| in the second crop season during the years 2005-2006| the highest emission (8|262.34 ton) was found in Takeo province (8|262.34 ton). Nitrous oxide emission was between 2.70 and 1|047.92 ton in the first crop season and it ranged from 0 to 244.90 ton in the second crop season. Total nitrous oxide emission from paddy rice field was estimated to be 9|026.28 ton in the first crop season and 1|091.93 ton in the second crop season. Larger area under cultivation is responsible for higher emission of methane and nitrous oxide. Total emission of nitrous oxide by using IPCC default emission coefficient was approximately 2|328.85 ton. The total global warming potential of Cambodian paddy rice soil is 11|723|217.03 ton (11|723 Gg) equivalents of CO(2). 10575,2010,3,2,Estimation of the carbon footprint of the Galician fishing activity (NW Spain),The food production system as a whole is recognized as one of the major contributors to environmental impacts. Accordingly| food production| processing| transport and consumption account for a relevant portion of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with any country. In this context| there is an increasing market demand for climate-relevant information regarding the global warming impact of consumer food products throughout the supply chains. This article deals with the assessment of the carbon footprint of seafood products as a key subgroup in the food sector. Galicia (NW Spain) was selected as a case study. The analysis is based on a representative set of species within the Galician fishing sector| including species obtained from coastal fishing (e.g. horse mackerel| Atlantic mackerel| European pilchard and blue whiting)| offshore fishing (e.g. European hake| megrim and anglerfish)| deep-sea fishing (skipjack and yellowfin tuna)| extensive aquaculture (mussels) and intensive aquaculture (turbot). The carbon footprints associated with the production-related activities of each selected species were quantified following a business-to-business approach on the basis of 1 year of fishing activity. These individual carbon footprints were used to calculate the carbon footprint for each of the different Galician fisheries and culture activities. Finally| the lump sum of the carbon footprints for coastal| offshore and deep-sea fishing and extensive and intensive aquaculture brought about the carbon footprint of the Galician fishing activity (i.e.| capture and culture). A benchmark for quantifying and communicating emission reductions was then provided| and opportunities to reduce the GHG emissions associated with the Galician fishing activity could be prioritized. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11243,2010,2,4,Estimation of the extinction risk for high-montane species as a consequence of global warming and assessment of their suitability as cross-taxon indicators,The evidence for climate change is increasing| and global warming could lead to the extinction of some species. Here we estimated the extinction risk of six high-montane species of different taxonomic groups (fern| vascular plant| wood-inhabiting fungus| mollusk| saproxylic beetle| and bird) by modeling their occurrence under two global warming scenarios. We also assessed the cross-taxon indicator suitability of the selected species for monitoring climate change in low-mountain-range forests in southeastern Germany (Bavarian Forest National Park). We tested the influence of temperature and other habitat variables by applying semi-parametric spatial generalized linear models with binomial error. The probability of occurrence for each species under the present conditions and under two conditions of global warming was calculated. To assess the cross-taxon suitability| we tested the predictability of the final generalized linear models for each species using the measured occurrence of the other selected species and a discrimination technique. We identified temperature as the main driver for all selected high-montane species. Our statistical models predict a considerable risk of extinction of these species within the Bavarian Forest National Park as a result of global warming. Our discrimination model indicates that these species have essentially similar relationships with the environment and that five of the six species are suitable as indicators of early signs of global warming. The choice of which indicators to use should involve a consideration of the type of monitoring systems already in place. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11102,2010,4,4,Estimation of the power of greenhouse gases on the basis of absorption spectra,The radiative forcing and global warming potential of three important greenhouse gases| carbon dioxide| methane| and nitrous oxide| are derived using their absorption spectra at the Earth's surface and their number densities in the atmosphere. The calculated values are close to the IPCC estimates except for methane. 11517,2010,4,3,Estimations of climate sensitivity based on top-of-atmosphere radiation imbalance,Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the accuracy in predicting the response of the Earth's climate to the increase of CO(2) concentration within the atmosphere. This study explores a potential to reduce uncertainties in climate sensitivity estimations using energy balance analysis| especially top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation imbalance. The time-scales studied generally cover from decade to century| that is| middle-range climate sensitivity is considered| which is directly related to the climate issue caused by atmospheric CO(2) change. The significant difference between current analysis and previous energy balance models is that the current study targets at the boundary condition problem instead of solving the initial condition problem. Additionally| climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport are considered. The climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance and surface temperature measurements of the present climate. In this study| the TOA imbalance value of 0.85 W/m(2) is used. Note that this imbalance value has large uncertainties. Based on this value| a positive climate feedback with a feedback coefficient ranging from -1.3 to -1.0 W/m(2)/K is found. The range of feedback coefficient is determined by climate system memory. The longer the memory| the stronger the positive feedback. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70 similar to 120 years) mainly owing to the deep ocean heat transport| implying that the system may be not in an equilibrium state under the external forcing during the industrial era. For the doubled-CO(2) climate (or 3.7 W/m(2) forcing)| the estimated global warming would be 3.1K if the current estimate of 0.85 W/m(2) TOA net radiative heating could be confirmed. With accurate long-term measurements of TOA radiation| the analysis method suggested by this study provides a great potential in the estimations of middle-range climate sensitivity. 722,2010,3,2,Evaluating Economic Reasons for China's Stance on Ship-Based Greenhouse Gas Reduction Negotiations,Greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping are an increasing concern of those interested in mitigating global climate change. Countries have not reached a consensus on snip-based greenhouse gas reduction strategies and on the responsibilities each country should take. In this paper| the economic reasons for China's insistence that the regulatory regime of the International Maritime Organization specifically address the Kyoto axiom of "common but differentiated responsibility" is evaluated| and fundamental equations relating power| speed| energy consumption| and cost to evaluate the impact of emission reduction on a selected set of routes and vessel data are applied. The policy options that are under discussion regarding ship-based carbon dioxide (CO(2)) reduction and China's viewpoint are reviewed| and economic justifications for China's stance are discussed. Estimates indicate that ships flying the Chinese flag accounted for 3.4% of the approximately 35 million metric tons of CO(2) emitted by container ships calling at U.S. ports in 2005| and ships carrying Chinese exports accounted for 17%. Further estimates suggest that China will pay approximately $238 to $298 million more for container ship services and international trade with the United States if all vessels are required to reduce ship-based CO(2) emissions. The direct cost is equivalent to about 0.20% of the total value of goods carried by container ships to the United States from China| or Sin $11 increase per ton of cargo. For some low-value goods| this is about an 8% increase in terms of price per ton| decreasing the already thin profit margins of Chinese exporters. These results| discussed in the context of policy-based actions| may limit or affect the choice of policy instruments. 623,2010,2,4,Evaluating environmental conditions of a temporary pond complex using rotifer emergence from dry soils,In this study we evaluated the usefulness of rotifer emergence from dry soils to indicate the environmental status of a remnant temporary pond complex in an agricultural area in central Spain. Because the ponds did not flood during our project| emergence was studied in relation to environmental variables in outdoor microcosms. Redundancy analysis and nestedness analysis showed that salinity and total nitrogen concentrations shaped the emerged communities. Depauperate rotifer assemblages from pond microcosms with higher salinity and nitrogen levels were nested subsets of species-rich communities from microcosms of less enriched sites. Rotifer community structure also identified small ponds as reference sites that should receive priority in conservation and degradation mitigation programs. Results suggest that rotifer emergence from rewetted sediments using microcosms can be useful for evaluating the nutrient status during the dry phase of temporary wetlands. While results from this approach are conservative| requiring comparisons with field observations| their tentative value lies in alerting management and providing a basis for future research of poorly studied but threatened temporary habitats. Rotifer emergence could be a useful alternative to traditional biological indicators of nutrient status that depend on the presence of water. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10449,2010,4,4,Evaluating the impacts of incubation procedures on estimated Q(10) values of soil respiration,A reliable determination of the response of soil organic carbon decomposition to temperature is critical in the context of global warming. However| uncertainties remain in estimated temperature sensitivity of soil respiration| which may be partly due to different experimental conditions. To investigate the possible effects of laboratory incubation procedures on estimated Q(10) value| soil samples taken from various ecosystems were incubated under changing temperature with different experimental conditions or procedures: 1) different rate of temperature change; 2) different intervals of temperature change; 3) equilibration time after temperature change; 4) the duration of chamber closure and 5) the size of incubated soil sample. The results indicated that respiration rate was affected by experimental procedures. The respiration rate of soil samples containing high concentration of organic carbon decreased quickly if the soil container sealed longer than 2 h. Estimated Q(10) values across all soils ranged from 1.56 to 2.70| with respect to the effects of incubation procedures. Temperature rate change| equilibration time| the duration of chamber closure and soil sample size had no effect on estimated Q(10) values of soil respiration. However. Q(10) values derived from temperature changing intervals of 2 and 7 degrees C were significantly different| despite the fact that the exponential function fitted well for the relationship between respiration rate and temperature for both intervals. The results of these experiments suggested that incubation procedures have different effects on measured soil respiration and estimated Q(10) values. For soil incubations of short-duration| the effects of incubation procedures on soil respiration and estimated Q(10) values based on respiration rate should be appropriately tested with experimental setting-up| and estimating Q(10) values with few temperatures should be avoided. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11248,2010,4,3,Evaluation of carbon dioxide equivalent values for greenhouse gases: CEWN as a new indicator replacing GWP,A new indicator| the CEWN (Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Warming Number)| is proposed as an alternative to the GWP (Global Warming Potential). CEWN is a metric where the global warming by the emission of gases is compared unifying the removal rate of each gas from the atmosphere| using carbon dioxide as a reference. To comply with the basket system of the Kyoto Protocol| GWP is used with a 100-year time horizon| making it unsatisfactory for the evaluation of long-lived compounds. As the removal rate from the atmosphere depends on the lifetime| the CEWN presents a fair assessment of the relative global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11337,2010,3,3,Evaluation of global warming impacts for different levels of stabilization as a step toward determination of the long-term stabilization target,In order to estimate the benefit attributable to alleviating global warming for a kind of cost-benefit analysis of global warming mitigation| global warming impacts were quantitatively evaluated for a pathway of unmitigated CO(2) emissions and three pathways to stabilize the atmospheric CO(2) concentration at different levels| keeping unchanged the assumed conditions on population and GDP growths| although the GDP losses which will be caused due to the warming mitigation for the three stabilization pathways are taken into account. The evaluation results show that global warming will reduce the world total number of deaths caused by thermal stress owing to the large decrease in the cold-related deaths; it will increase the water stress in some regions| while it will decrease the stress in other regions; reductions in CO(2) emissions will decrease the probability of THC collapse and terrestrial biodiversity loss; and it will enhance an increase in the wheat production potential. 10848,2010,3,4,Evaluation of non-azeotropic mixtures containing HFOs as potential refrigerants in refrigeration and high-temperature heat pump systems,With the increasing environmental concern on global warming| hydrofluoro-olefin (HFOs)| possessing low GWP| has attracted great attention of many researchers recently. In this study| non-azeotropic mixtures composed of HFOs (HFO-1234yf| HFO-1234ze(z)| HFO-1234ze(e) and HFO-1234zf) are developed to substitute for HFC-134a and CFC-114 in air-conditioning and high-temperature heat pump systems| respectively. The cycle performances were evaluated by an improved theoretical cycle evaluation methodology. The results showed that all the mixtures proposed herein were favorable refrigerants with excellent thermodynamic cycle performances. M1A presented lower discharge temperature and pressure ratio and higher COP (c) than that of HFC-134a. The volumetric cooling capacity was similar to HFC-134a. It can be served as a good environmentally friendly alternative to replace HFC-134a. M3H delivered similar discharge temperature as CFC-114 did. And the COP (h) was 3% higher. It exhibits excellent cycle performance in high-temperature heat pump and is a promising refrigerant to substitute for CFC-114. And the gliding temperature differences enable them to exhibit better coefficient of performance by matching the sink/source temperature in practice. Because the toxicity| flammability and other properties are not investigated in detail| extensive toxicity and flammability testing needs to be conducted before they are used in a particular application. 11191,2010,3,3,Evaluation of the fertilizing effect of olive mill waste compost in short-term crops,Recycling to soil Olive Mill Waste (OMW) has the potential to improve soil fertility| thus reducing CO(2) emission associated to global warming. However| the short period in which OMW are produced and the high load of recalcitrant compounds| make difficult direct land spreading of raw OMW. Consequently| sustainable biological treatments able to transform OMW into a safe amendment have been progressively developed. In comparison to a standard mineral fertilization| the present work assessed the agronomic performance of two innovative kinds of OMW compost| used as fertilizers in Lactuca sativa and Lycopersicon esculentum cultivation trials. Both crops showed yields comparable to control| thus suggesting that most of the nutrients contained in the OMW supported adequately plant growth| even in short-term crops. Six months later OMW application| no significant differences were found in the soil humic content. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10683,2010,2,4,EVALUATION OF WINTER FREEZE DAMAGE RISK TO APPLE TREES IN GLOBAL WARMING PROJECTIONS,Winter freeze damage affects fruit production regularly in the northern part of North America. This situation| which is related to climatic conditions| financially affects fruit producers and limits the affected areas to the use of cultivars that are freeze-resistant but do not always yield a sufficient market return. The purpose of this study is to conduct an experiment with a newly developed numerical model (W5L+) and its associated snow cover module to evaluate the effects of the projected climatic change on the risk of winter freeze damage to apple trees. The model W5L+ quantifies the risk of freeze damage occurrence at defined locations based on local meteorological records or projections. Risk quantification is achieved by screening daily meteorological time series with pre-identified parameters that are known to be proxies for conditions that result in freeze-damage. The model was parameterized using historical meteorological records from apple orchards in Farnham| southern Quebec| and descriptions of regional winter freeze damaging events that were recorded between 1920 and 2005. In 82% of the years studied| the model was able to identify| correctly the order of magnitude of the recorded freeze events. During the same period| results suggest that extremely low temperatures and prolonged periods of low temperatures were responsible for the majority of damaging events. When used with climatic projections downscaled from a global climate model (GCM)| the model predicted a decrease in freeze risk for apple trees at the Farnham orchards in the next 60 years. This trend is due to a decrease in extreme cold events as well as in prolonged periods of low temperature. The present study demonstrates the potential of the W5L+ modeling approach in studying the impact of climate change on the occurrence of damaging freezes. However| the predictions need to be verified by using the model with a large range of agro-climatic conditions and climate projections. 10562,2010,2,4,Evaporation change and global warming: The role of net radiation and relative humidity,The change in evaporation over the oceans in climate models is analyzed from the perspective of air-sea turbulent fluxes of water and energy. The results challenge the view that the change in evaporation is predominantly constrained by the change in the net radiation at the surface. For fixed net radiation change| it is found that (1) robust increases in near-surface relative humidity and (2) robust decreases in turbulent exchange coefficient lead to a substantial reduction in evaporation below the rate of increase implied by the net radiation alone. This reduction of evaporation is associated with corresponding changes in the sensible heat flux. In addition| a net imbalance in the surface energy budget under transient greenhouse gas forcing provides a further reduction in the evaporation change in climate models. Further results also suggest that it might be more physical to view the evaporation change as a function of relative humidity change rather than net radiation. In this view| the relative humidity controls the net surface shortwave radiation through changes in low-level cloudiness and the temperature controls the net surface radiation through the changes in longwave radiation. In addition| the results demonstrate the dominant role of both the air-sea temperature difference and relative humidity over| for example| wind speed in reducing the evaporation change in climate models below the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. 502,2010,2,4,Evidence for long-term regional changes in precipitation on the East Coast Mountains in Mauritius,Global climate change and its impacts are being increasingly studied and precipitation trends are one of the measures of quantifying climate change especially in the tropics. This study uses daily rainfall data to determine if there are changes in the long-term trends in rainfall variability in the East Coast Mountains of Mauritius during the last few decades| and to investigate the factors influencing the trends in the inter-annual to inter-decadal rainfall variability. Statistical modelling has been used to investigate the trends in total seasonal rainfall| the number of rain days and the mean amount of rain per rainy days and the local| regional and large-scale factors that affect them on inter-annual to inter-decadal time scales. The strongest inter-decadal trend was found in the number of rain days for both rainfall seasons| and the other variables were found to have weak or insignificant trends. Both local factors| such as the surrounding sea surface temperatures and large-scale phenomena such as Indian Monsoon and the El Nino Southern Oscillation were found to influence rainfall patterns. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 11454,2010,2,4,Evidence for Two Distinct Modes of Large-Scale Ocean Circulation Changes over the Last Century,Through its nonlinear dynamics and involvement in past abrupt climate shifts the thermohaline circulation (THC) represents a key element for the understanding of rapid climate changes. The expected THC weakening under global warming is characterized by large uncertainties| and it is therefore of significant importance to identify ocean circulation changes over the last century. By applying various statistical techniques on two global sea surface temperature datasets two THC-related modes are separated. The first one involves relatively slow adjustment of the whole conveyor belt circulation and has an interhemispherically symmetric pattern. The second mode is associated with the relatively fast adjustment of the North Atlantic overturning cell and has the seesaw structure. Based on the separation of these two patterns the authors show that the global conveyor has been weakening since the late 1930s and that the North Atlantic overturning cell suffered an abrupt shift around 1970. The distinction between the two modes provides also a new frame for interpreting past abrupt climate changes. 10807,2010,2,4,Evidence of a sharper decrease in a non-indigenous mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis than in indigenous bivalves from 1978 to 2006 on Japanese rocky shores,In various studies encompassing large spatiotemporal scales| the densities of non-indigenous species and indigenous species in the same habitat increased and decreased| respectively| prior to reaching an equilibrium. We examined whether this is true for a non-indigenous mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis| introduced into Japan before 1934| and the sympatric indigenous bivalves: Septifer virgatus| Septifer bilocularis| Hormomya mutabilis| Saccostrea kegaki| Saccostrea mordax and Barbatia (Savignyarca) virescens. Seven quadrat surveys during 1978-2006 on 19 rocky shores (26.6-41.4A degrees N) showed unexpected results. Density of M. galloprovincialis decreased on 89% of the shores where this mussel had previously been found. In contrast| densities of the indigenous bivalves decreased on lower percentages (17-71%) of shores where the bivalves had been found. Shore-to-shore mean density of M. galloprovincialis decreased from the 1970s (27.0-88.7 m(-2)) to the 2000s (0.0-1.1 m(-2))| more sharply than any of the indigenous bivalves (from 4.6-9.1 m(-2) to 0.7-1.5 m(-2) for S. bilocularis| which showed the most marked reduction). The conspicuous decrease for M. galloprovincialis suggests that some factors on the studied shores have become disadvantageous especially for this non-indigenous mussel from the earlier to the later surveys. 10984,2010,2,4,Evidence of olive ridley mitochondrial genome introgression into loggerhead turtle rookeries of Sergipe| Brazil,The coastline of Sergipe state hosts the main Brazilian nesting sites of Lepidochelys olivacea (Eschscholtz| 1829). The second most abundant species of turtles in Sergipe is Caretta caretta (Linnaeus| 1758). Both sea turtle species| respectively known as olive ridley and loggerhead| are currently listed as endangered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. The genetic diversity of the Sergipe loggerhead population (N = 51) was assayed by analyzing 627 bp from the control region of mitochondrial DNA in nesting females. Three haplotypes were identified: CC-A4| CC-A24 and CC x LO. The last one was recorded for specimens considered hybrids because they represent L. olivacea's mtDNA| but had the external morphology of C. caretta or of a mixture of both species. Based on the two types of hybrids| it was hypothesized that at least two hybridization events had occurred: a more ancient hybridization event| accompanied by introgression (F2 or later backcrosses)| and a recent one (F1)| both of which involving the same L. olivacea haplotype. The incidence of L. olivacea mitochondrial genome introgression into the C. caretta rookeries was only observed in Sergipe| which could be related to the large numbers of L. olivacea in this region and an overlap of reproduction periods and distribution areas of both species. This may also be associated to global warming since it might alter the sex ratio of sea turtles| thus facilitating interspecific mating. Awareness of gene flow between these species will significantly influence the development and implementation of adequate management strategies. 10996,2010,5,4,Evidence of solar and tropical-ocean forcing of hydroclimate cycles in southeastern Australia for the past 6500 years,Evidence of solar and tropical-ocean forcing of climate cycles has been found in numerous palaeoclimate records. Numerical modelling studies show physical mechanisms by which direct and indirect solar forcing may affect climate| while there is mounting evidence of solar forcing of tropical ocean-atmosphere teleconnections. This study has developed a 6500 year record of dust deposition| a proxy for regional hydroclimate variability for the Snowy Mountains region of Australia. Spectral analysis of the record provides evidence of statistically significant cycles in dust deposition of 35-43 years| 62-73 years| 161 years and 2200 years. These correlate with variability in solar irradiance and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We present evidence to support physical links between variability in solar irradiance and change in the hydroclimate of southeast Australia and suggest that the effects of global warming and solar maxima on atmospheric circulation over extra-tropical regions may exacerbate these impacts.
11020,2010,2,4,Evidence of warming effects on phytoplankton productivity rates and their dependence on eutrophication status,Using 31-yr data from measurements in a lake that has experienced change in eutrophication status| I showed that the effects of global warming on chlorophyll a (Chl a)-normalized maximum rates of photosynthesis (P(max) : Chl a) may be positive| nonsignificant| or negative| depending on nutrient availability. The magnitude of P(max) : Chl a change in response to warming showed hyperbolic relationships with phosphorus concentrations; it was positive and constant when total phosphorus (TP) in the lake water exceeded 22 mu g P L(-1) (eutrophic conditions) but was negative when TP was lower (nutrient-poor conditions)| indicating direct negative effects of warming on primary productivity (PP) under phosphorus scarcity. Vertically integrated PP responses corroborate those of P(max) : Chl a. These data also showed long-term seasonal variations in the sensitivity of phytoplankton productivity to temperature. The observed hyperbolic curves strongly suggest that the "limiting-nutrient cell quota"-based mechanism reported so far only in laboratories (by studies analyzing temperature-nutrient effects on microalgal growth or photosynthesis) operates in nature and plays a key role in determining phytoplankton response to warming of waters. The present findings provide insight on how phytoplankton productivity may respond to future warming in lakes of differing eutrophication status. 10985,2010,2,4,Evolution and maintenance of divergent lineages in an endangered freshwater fish| Macquaria australasica,Variable hydrological regimes and habitat availability are factors that affect the distribution of freshwater dependent species and are expected to influence their levels of genetic diversity. Although geologically relatively stable| the south eastern region of Australia has experienced significant changes in hydrological conditions during the Quaternary. This area has also been recently affected by anthropogenic activities| resulting in dramatic population declines of Macquarie Perch (Macquaria australasica). We conducted a range-wide phylogeographic study of this endangered fish to assess the relationship between landscape and freshwater fish evolution in south eastern Australia and infer levels of genetic diversity and population structure. Surprisingly| we detected high genetic diversity| with 46 mtDNA control region haplotypes found across 37 sampling locations. Some lineages were remarkably divergent; one represents a putative undescribed species that probably went extinct during the period of this study. Our reconstruction of population history using a combination of coalescent and phylogenetic methods indicates that the species originated on the coast| east of the Great Dividing Range (GDR)| with subsequent colonisation of the Murray-Darling basin| west of the GDR. Nested clade and IM analyses inferred a series of range expansions and fragmentations across the species range consistent with the history of climatic oscillations in south eastern Australia during the Pleistocene. We conclude that the unexpected high levels of diversity and divergence observed in M. australasica may be due to specific habitat requirements| localised recruitment| and Pleistocene climate fluctuations. Under expectations of a drier climate and increased sea levels due to global warming| populations of this and other freshwater species may be expected to experience increased habitat fragmentation and loss of genetic diversity. Conservation management should focus on habitat protection| the maintenance of genetic diversity and taxonomic review. 11531,2010,4,4,Evolution of a debris-charged glacier landsystem| Kviarjokull| Iceland,A time-series of 1:12|500 scale maps of the snout and foreland of the Icelandic glacier Kviarjokull provides a spatial and temporal assessment of landform evolution from a debris-charged glacier snout over a 58 year period between 1945 and 2003. In addition to providing a valuable record of glacier recession over a period of recent global warming| the maps enable the elaboration of existing conceptual models of the debris-charged glacier landsystem based on measurable process-form relationships. Features were identified using a combination of DEM visualization| morphometric analysis| stereoscopic viewing of aerial photographs and field verification. The maps contain twelve colour coded surficial geology units displayed as polygons and various geomorphological features represented by a combination of lines and points. The spatial and temporal evolution of the landforms on the glacier foreland indicate that the snout of Kvairjokull has been undergoing active retreat and incremental stagnation over the study period. The maps serve as excellent modern landsystem analogues for palaeoglaciological reconstructions in similar climatic and topographic settings. 529,2010,2,4,Evolutionary history of two endemic Appalachian conifers revealed using microsatellite markers,Fraser fir (Abies fraseri [Pursh] Poir.) and intermediate fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill. var. phanerolepis Fern.) exist in small populations in the Appalachian highlands of the southeastern United States. We used ten nuclear microsatellite markers to quantify genetic variation within Fraser fir and intermediate fir| and to examine their evolutionary relationships with the widespread balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.). We found little genetic differentiation among these taxa| suggesting that Fraser fir might best be classified as a variety of balsam fir. The results further appear to reject the hypothesis that intermediate fir was of hybrid origin between two comparatively distantly related species. Low levels of genetic diversity suggest that intermediate fir and Fraser fir have undergone at least some genetic degradation since post-Pleistocene isolation. The results may prove important for in situ and ex situ gene conservation efforts for Fraser fir and intermediate fir| which are imperiled by an exotic insect and by global climate change. 470,2010,2,4,Evolvability of between-year seed dormancy in populations along an aridity gradient,Under global climate change| adaptation to new conditions is crucial for plant species persistence. This requires the ability to evolve in traits that are correlated with changing climatic variables. We studied between-year seed dormancy| which correlates with environmental variability| and tested for clinal trends in its evolvability along an aridity gradient in Israel. We conducted a germination experiment under five irrigation levels with two dryland winter annuals (Biscutella didyma| Bromus fasciculatus) from four sites along the gradient. Species differed in means and evolvability of dormancy. Biscutella had high dormancy| which significantly increased with aridity but decreased with higher irrigation. In Bromus| dormancy was low| similar among populations| and only marginally affected by irrigation. Evolvability in Biscutella was high and varied among populations| without a clinal trend along the gradient. Conversely| in Bromus| trait evolvability was low and declined with increasing aridity. We argue that changes in evolvability along climatic gradients depend on the relative intensity of stabilizing selection. This may be high in Bromus and not only depends on environmental stress| but also on variability. Our findings point to the importance of measuring evolvability of climate-related traits across different natural and artificial environments and for many coexisting species. (C) 2010 The Linnean Society of London| Biological Journal of the Linnean Society| 2010| 100| 924-934. 10924,2010,2,4,Ex Situ Conservation of Orchids in a Warming World,Whilst there is overwhelming scientific evidence that dramatic changes in regional climates are likely to occur throughout the 21st century| the scientific community remains uncertain how the effects of global heating will combine with other environmental factors to affect wild orchid populations. It is| however| likely that many populations will be affected adversely and that in situ conservation techniques by themselves will not be sufficient to prevent the extinction of many species. A range of complimentary ex situ strategies are discussed. Amongst these orchid seed banking has been shown to be an invaluable tool for conserving the maximum amount of genetic diversity in the minimum space and has the potential to enable the conservation of valuable material for possible re-introduction and habitat restoration programmes in the future. The Darwin Initiative project| 'Orchid Seed Stores for Sustainable Use' (OSSSU)| is currently establishing a global network of orchid seed banks focussing initially on countries with high orchid biodiversity in Asia and Latin America. Particular reference is made to ex situ conservation in China| together with the urgent need to gather more data to determine which habitats and species are most at risk of extinction in the wild in the immediate future. 11431,2010,2,4,Expansion of Distribution Area following Climate Change versus Increasing Knowledge Accuracy: The case of Earias albovenosana in the Iberian Peninsula (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae: Nolinae),Earias albovenosana (Oberthur 1917)| for a long time considered a North African species| is reported from several locations in the Iberian Peninsula (both Portugal and Spain)| from where it is formally mentioned for the first time. Adults are characterized and compared to those of other Iberian congeneric species| particularly the most similar one| Earias vernana (Fabricius 1787). Male genitalia are illustrated and diagnosed. Geographic distribution patterns of both E albovenosana and E vernana in the Iberian area are examined; E albovenosana occupies roughly the southern 2/3 of the Iberian Peninsula| whereas E vernana displays a north-eastern distribution pattern. Faunistic data regarding E albovenosana are discussed| emphasizing geographical and temporal (i e| recording year) aspects. Some Iberian high latitude records of E albovenosana (published as E vernana; material checked) exist from the first third of the XX century; furthermore| there is no trend relating more recent records with more northern latitudes. Therefore| the hypothesis of a recent colonization of the Iberian Peninsula from the Maghrebian area is disregarded. The need for continuous monitoring is stressed in order to relate the presence of species with their causes (be it global warming or not). 10825,2010,2,4,Experimental branch warming alters tall tree leaf phenology and acorn production,An increasing number of field experiments have been initiated worldwide to study simulated effects of global warming. To experimentally determine how tall| mature trees respond to warming| we developed a new technique that heated canopy-level branches with electric heating cables. Using a canopy crane| we attached electric cables to top canopy branches of tall| mature Quercus crispula Blume (18-20 m in height) trees; shoot temperature was elevated 5 degrees C above ambient. Branch warming extended the length of the growing season of canopy leaves by later leaf fall. Moreover| branch warming increased acorn production. Application of this technique should lead to a better understanding of how tall| mature trees respond to global warming. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10911,2010,3,4,Experimental studies on a mixture of HFC-32/125/161 as an alternative refrigerant to HCFC-22 in the presence of polyol ester,In this work| experiment was conducted to examine the thermo-physical properties of an alternative refrigerant to HCFC-22 in the presence of polyol ester (POE). The new alternative refrigerant is a mixture of HFC-32/125/161| whose physical properties are similar to HCFC-22 but has a lower global warming potential (GWP) than that of R407C. POE is used as the tested lubricating oil in the experiment. The saturated vapor pressure data and vapor-liquid equilibrium data of nine different mass fractions of the new refrigerant and polyol ester (POE) in the temperature range of 253-323 K were measured by single-phase cycle method. The experiment results showed that there was no stratification| no sediment generation in the liquid phase of the mixture| and the color of liquid phase of the mixture had no change in the equilibrium cell before and after the experiment with the POE concentration greater than 20% and the temperature higher than 258 K; with POE concentration lower than 20% and temperature lower than 258K| stratification began to appear. Meanwhile| when POE and the refrigerant were miscible| the saturated pressure data of the mixture (HFC-32/125/161 + POE) revealed that POE had a very small impact on saturated vapor pressure of the mixture (almost negligible) when POE was less than 10% of the mixture; POE has an obvious effect on the saturated vapor pressure of the mixture when there is more than 10% POE in the mixture| especially when the temperature is higher than 283.15 K. Experimental data were correlated by Flory-Huggins model| Heil model| NRTL model and Wilson model. The results showed that to the average and maximum pressure deviation| the results were better with considering the effects of temperature on the energy parameters. Among the above models| the NRTL activity coefficient model was the best| the Heil and Wilson models followed and the Flory-Huggins model had the largest deviation from the experimental data. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10695,2010,3,3,Experimental study of R152a and R32 to replace R134a in a domestic refrigerator,This paper presents an experimental study of R152a and R32| environment-friendly refrigerants with zero ozone depletion potential (ODP) and low global warming potential (GWP)| to replace R134a in domestic refrigerator. A refrigerator designed and developed to work with R134a was tested| and its performance using R152a and R32 was evaluated and compared with its performance when R134a was used. The results obtained showed that the design temperature and pull-down time set by International Standard Organisation (ISO) for small refrigerator were achieved earlier using refrigerant R152a and R134a than using R32. The average coefficient of performance (COP) obtained using R152a is 4.7% higher than that of R134a while average COP of R32 is 8.5% lower than that of R134a. The system consumed less energy when R152a was used. The performance of R152a in the domestic refrigerator was constantly better than those of R134a and R32 throughout all the operating conditions| which shows that R152a can be used as replacement for R134a in domestic refrigerator. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11393,2010,2,4,Experimental thermal microevolution in community-embedded Daphnia populations,There are an increasing number of studies documenting effects of global warming on the distribution and ecology of a wide variety of organisms. However| much less is known about evolutionary responses in species to increasing temperature. As a result| thermal microevolution is often ignored when making predictions about the impact of global warming on the distribution of organisms and the composition of communities. We investigated the ability of 2 large-bodied Daphnia species| D. magna and D. pulex| to genetically respond to increased temperature under semi-natural conditions. Daphnia populations were exposed for 6 mo to different temperature treatments in large outdoor mesocosms that simulated small pond systems. The selection experiment was followed by a common garden experiment in which we quantified thermal microevolution in important life history traits. Intrinsic growth rate did not respond to thermal selection. Instead| we observed an effect of selection temperature on size at maturity| indicating that Daphnia may genetically adapt to increased temperature within one growing season. In a previous laboratory study on thermal microevolution using single-species cultures of D. magna| we documented the opposite pattern with thermal microevolution in intrinsic growth rate but not in size at maturity. These observations suggest that the ecological context (semi-natural conditions compared to single species cultures) is very important in determining with which traits species adapt to global warming. 443,2010,2,4,Experimental warming and clipping altered litter carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a tallgrass prairie,Litter carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics are important processes in regulating C and N cycling in ecosystems. However| it is not well understood how global climate change and land use practice interactively affect litter C and N dynamics in ecosystems. We conducted a field experiment in a tallgrass prairie in Oklahoma. USA| to study effects of climate warming and clipping (as mimic of agricultural hay harvest) on litter C and N dynamics in association with litter production and decomposition of dominant species C(4) grass and C(3) forb. Warming did not significantly affect specific decomposition and N immobilization/mineralization rates of either species but increased C(4) and decreased C(3) litter production. Increased C(4) litter production| together with its intrinsic low decomposition| resulted in 16-47% increase in litter mass. Warming decreased N concentrations| litter N production| litter N pool and litter N output (i.e.| litter N loss). Clipping significantly increased specific decomposition rates of C(4) litter but decreased litter production| litter mass and litter N contents. Our results suggest that indirect effects of climate change via shifts in plant species composition and decreases in litter quality are much more important than its direct effects on litter decomposition and subsequent C and N turnovers. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 724,2010,2,2,Exploring Potential Inequities Between Burdens and Benefits of Climate Change Abatement Policies,Although the connection between the storms along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico in 2005 and global climate change is still being debated| the fact that low-income communities are more likely to bear the greatest burden and are more vulnerable to potential future climate change and rising sea levels is widely acknowledged. Adding to this problem| greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming are income dependent: people with the highest incomes| both globally and within specific communities| tend to pollute more than those with the lowest incomes. A policy dilemma thus arises when abatement strategies involve regressive financing or when the benefits of such strategies are concentrated within higher-income groups. Low-income communities are in effect subsidizing the pollution abatement of higher-income communities. This paper reviews a range of evidence showing the unequal vulnerabilities| responsibilities| benefits| and costs from climate change and climate change policies. A framework for the evaluation of climate change mitigation strategies in the transportation sector is then proposed. This framework incorporates these equity issues along with other traditional measures of policy effectiveness. Exactly how these various inequities are incorporated and valued is highly case specific and is proposed as the subject of future research. 10677,2010,4,4,Exploring the cognitive loads of high-school students as they learn concepts in web-based environments,This study measured high-school learners' cognitive load as they interacted with different web-based curriculum components| and examined the interactions between cognitive load and web-based concept learning. Participants in this study were 105 11th graders from an academic senior high school in Taiwan. An online| multimedia curriculum on the topic of global warming| which lasted for four weeks| provided the learning context. After students worked through the curriculum| their feelings about the degree of mental effort that it took to complete the learning tasks were measured by self-report on a 9-point Likert scale. An online test and the flow-map method were applied to assess participants' concept achievements. The results showed that curriculum components such as scientific articles| online notebooks| flash animations and the online test induced a relatively high cognitive load| and that a lower cognitive load resulted in better concept achievement. Also| students appeared to adopt different learning approaches that were corresponding to different levels of cognitive load. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11503,2010,3,4,Exploring the possibility of using a thermostable mutant of beta-glucosidase for rapid hydrolysis of quercetin glucosides in hot water,The antioxidant quercetin was extracted from yellow onion waste and converted to its aglycone form by a combination of subcritical water extraction and enzymatic hydrolysis. The hydrolytic step was catalysed by a double residue (N221S| P342L) mutant of the thermostable beta-glucosidase (TnBgl1A)| isolated from the thermophile Thermotoga neapolitana and cloned and produced in E. coli. The activity of wt TnBgl1A was shown to be dependent on the position of the glucosylation on the quercetin backbone| favouring hydrolysis of quercetin-4'-glucoside over quercetin-3-glucoside. The mutated variant of the enzyme harboured a mutation in the +2 sub-site (N221S) and showed increased catalytic efficiency in quercetin-3-glucoside hydrolysis and also to a certain extent hydrolysis of quercetin-4'-glucoside. The mutated enzyme was used directly in yellow onion extracts| prepared by subcritical water extraction| resulting in complete hydrolysis of the glucosylated flavonoids quercetin-3|4'-diglucoside| quercetin-4'-glucoside| quercetin-3-glucoside| isorhamnetin-4'-glucoside and isorhamnetin-3|4'-diglucoside. To complete hydrolysis within five minutes| 3 mg of TnBgl1A_N221S was used per gramme of onion (dry weight). A life cycle assessment was done to compare the environmental impact of the new method with a conventional solid-liquid extraction-and-hydrolysis method utilising aqueous methanol and hydrochloric acid. Comparison of the methods showed that the new method is preferable regarding primary energy consumption and global warming potential. Another advantage of this method is that handling of toxic chemicals (methanol and HCl) is avoided. This shows that combined subcritical water extraction/enzyme hydrolysis is both a fast and sustainable method to obtain quercetin from onion waste. 11418,2010,2,4,Extralimital Distribution of Galapagos (Zalophus wollebaeki) and Northern (Eumetopias jubatus) Sea Lions in Mexico,Global pinniped distribution is greatly determined by changes in sea surface temperature. El Nino events also have been reported to directly influence pinniped distribution. These events have increased in frequency and intensity changing the foraging ecology of the two pinniped species analyzed. In this paper| we present new extralimital records of distribution of two species rarely found in Mexican waters: the Galapagos (Zalophus wollebaeki) and the Northern (Eumetopias jubatus) sea lions. Three adult Z. wollebaeki were found in Chiapas| and one E. jubatus was recorded off the coasts of Colima-both exceeding the maximum reported extralimital distance. These new records increase the number of marine mammal species recorded in Mexico and add evidence to the fact that large-scale climatic variation and possible effects of global warming shift the distribution of marine mammals. 633,2010,3,4,Facility-level energy and greenhouse gas life-cycle assessment of the global nickel industry,Nickel is an integral material to our modern| high-performance technological society. With increasing emphasis being put on energy efficiency and global climate change| it is important for companies to understand in detail the energy use and greenhouse gas implications of their business. The present analysis is a facility-level life-cycle assessment of these twin impacts covering the entire global nickel industry. Cradle-to-gate results (including extraction| production| and fabrication) are presented here for selected nickel and nickel alloy products| including upstream energy required for fuel production. Stainless steel is one of the most highly recycled metals in the world. In order to assess the energy and carbon implications of secondary material use| recycling scenarios for three grades of stainless steel (AISI 304| 409| and 430) were considered. Using the Current scenario as a baseline| maximum use of scrap (within technical limits) and all-virgin production results varied widely. Smelting/Class II refining was the most energy intensive step of production| accounting for 50-90% of total primary energy use. Transport contributed 2-11% of the total| depending on the nickel product considered. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the results are highly dependent on the energy requirements for upstream fuel production| which apply to all steps of the assessment. These results will help the nickel industry navigate energy and climate change concerns in the coming years. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10846,2010,2,4,Factors influencing zooplankton size structure at contrasting temperatures in coastal shallow lakes: Implications for effects of climate change,We assessed the importance of temperature| salinity| and predation for the size structure of zooplankton and provided insight into the future ecological structure and function of shallow lakes in a warmer climate. Artificial plants were introduced in eight comparable coastal shallow brackish lakes located at two contrasting temperatures: cold-temperate and Mediterranean climate region. Zooplankton| fish| and macroinvertebrates were sampled within the plants and at open-water habitats. The fish communities of these brackish lakes were characterized by small-sized individuals| highly associated with submerged plants. Overall| higher densities of small planktivorous fish were recorded in the Mediterranean compared to the cold-temperate region| likely reflecting temperature-related differences as have been observed in freshwater lakes. Our results suggest that fish predation is the major control of zooplankton size structure in brackish lakes| since fish density was related to a decrease in mean body size and density of zooplankton and this was reflected in a unimodal shaped biomass-size spectrum with dominance of small sizes and low size diversity. Salinity might play a more indirect role by shaping zooplankton communities toward more salt-tolerant species. In a global-warming perspective| these results suggest that changes in the trophic structure of shallow lakes in temperate regions might be expected as a result of the warmer temperatures and the potentially associated increases in salinity. The decrease in the density of large-bodied zooplankton might reduce the grazing on phytoplankton and thus the chances of maintaining the clear water state in these ecosystems. 10401,2010,5,4,Faunal evidence for a cool boundary current and decoupled regional climate cooling in the Permian of western Laurentia,Deglaciation following the late Paleozoic ice age was a complex climate transition marked by smaller glacial-interglacial transitions superimposed on an overall Permian warming trend. In contrast to this growing recognition of a dynamic climate system| few studies have investigated geographic variations in postglacial climate changes| which may have been as dynamic as the temporal variations. Because temperature and ocean circulation are important controls on the biogeography of marine invertebrates| many Permian taxa were characteristic of either paleotropical or high-latitude faunal realms. This study takes advantage of that temperature sensitivity| using a database of more than 5000 Permian fossil collections from northwestern Pangea to reconstruct spatial variations in Permian climate changes throughout the region. Cluster analysis demonstrates that localities in the Phosphoria basin (Nevada/Idaho/Wyoming) were taxonomically distinct from coeval faunas in Texas and occupied the transitional zone between Paleoequatorial and Boreal realms. Quantitative scoring of the faunal affinity of all taxa in 1 by 1 degrees paleolatitudinal bins suggests that the western margin of Laurentia was affected by a persistent southward-flowing cool boundary current| and that the effects of the current became more pronounced throughout the Permian in conjunction with cooling in the Boreal ocean. The increasingly cool-water nature of Phosphoria basin faunas contrasted with warming in Texas and implies that northern and northwest Pangea were decoupled from the broader global warming trend following the late Paleozoic ice age. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 634,2010,2,4,Favourable habitats for Coffea inter-specific hybridization in central New Caledonia: combined genetic and spatial analyses,1. Human disturbance of natural habitats has increasingly promoted hybridization between previously isolated species. Coffee trees (Coffea canephora| C. liberica and C. arabica) have been introduced into New Caledonia for cultivation since the 1850s. Many plantations have since been abandoned| leaving the cultivars to evolve in natural conditions. This historical situation and the local environmental conditions have led to gene flow between sympatric species and the creation of hybrid zones which can be considered as a natural laboratory for studying gene flow dynamics. Our objectives were to assess the nature of these hybridizations and to model the distribution of habitats favourable for these hybrid zones at a regional scale. 2. We analysed a tri-specific model population with 26 microsatellite markers using a multilocus analysis approach. We applied Bayesian methods to characterize the species identity of founder individuals and identify inter-specific hybrids. A high level of genetic diversity and inter-specific hybridization was observed in the population. To evaluate the presence of other favourable environments in the local area| a geographic information system was used to spatially differentiate the phenomenon and optimize future hybrid collecting missions. We constructed a predictive distribution model based on observation and environmental expertise (climatic parameters| physical parameters and landcover) at four reference sites of the hybrid zone. 3. At all four sites the Coffea species were found to be involved in inter-specific hybridization| with one population| in particular| revealing high genetic diversity. According to the environmental expertise| 40% of the studied region appeared to be favourable for this phenomenon and the model was validated with a prediction accuracy of 79%. 4. Synthesis and applications. The use of microsatellite markers was efficient for assessing the nature and extent of coffee tree hybridization events. The environmental expertise and model allowed comparisons between New Caledonia and Africa ecological niches. This methodology may be recommended for better management of de novo in situ coffee genetic resources and applied to other plants to provide insight into the impact of adaptation to new environment. Combining environmental and species biological parameters would help in analysing modifications in plant reproductive behaviour induced by global climate change. 531,2010,4,4,Featuring 10 phenological estimators using simulated data,1. Studies reporting phenological changes in response to climate change are numerous and concern all groups of living organisms. Phenological changes could cause mismatching in food chains| thus inducing important perturbations in ecosystem functioning. Nevertheless| the relevancy of the conclusions drawn from phenological studies strongly depends on the estimation accuracy of such phenological changes. Many different estimators exist and some have already raised major criticism| although they continue to be used. Therefore| there is a crucial need for an extensive study documenting the behaviour of phenological estimators. 2. Here| we compare the estimation efficiency of 10 phenological estimators: different first appearance dates| mean dates| different percentile dates and a smoothing method based on spline functions using simulated phenological data. Root mean-squared errors and bias of the phenological estimations are calculated in relation to different parameters of the simulated phenological data. 3. Results show that first appearance dates behave as a very inaccurate and biased estimator regarding any phenological data set. Mean dates and estimates calculated using the smoothing method provided in general the most accurate estimates of phenological shifts. They were also the most robust to variation in sample sizes and to imperfect detectability. 4. Our results allow us to warn against the use of first appearance dates in future phenological studies and to recommend using mean dates or smoothing techniques to estimate phenological change of entire distributions. We also provide advice concerning phenological monitoring effort. These recommendations should most importantly apply to studies aiming at comparing phenological variation among sites or among species. 10417,2010,2,4,FECAL PELLETS OF AMERICAN PIKAS (OCHOTONA PRINCEPS) PROVIDE A CRUDE CHRONOMETER FOR DATING PATCH OCCUPANCY,American pikas (Ochotona princeps) seem to be especially vulnerable to climate change| with recent extinctions of pika populations being attributed to global warming. Incomplete historical location records are currently used to examine changes in pika distributions. A method of determining recent pika distributions in the absence of historical records is needed. Here I report on changes over time of known-age pika fecal pellets up to 36 years old. Predictable changes in diameter| internal consistency| and color of pellets provide a method to approximate the dates of last occupation in patches where pikas have been extirpated. 10805,2010,2,4,Field Simulation of Global Change: Transplanting Northern Bog Mesocosms Southward,A large proportion of northern peatlands consists of Sphagnum-dominated ombrotrophic bogs. In these bogs| peat mosses (Sphagnum) and vascular plants occur in an apparent stable equilibrium| thereby sustaining the carbon sink function of the bog ecosystem. How global warming and increased nitrogen (N) deposition will affect the species composition in bog vegetation is still unclear. We performed a transplantation experiment in which mesocosms with intact vegetation were transplanted southward from north Sweden to north-east Germany along a transect of four bog sites| in which both temperature and N deposition increased. In addition| we monitored undisturbed vegetation in control plots at the four sites of the latitudinal gradient. Four growing seasons after transplantation| ericaceous dwarf shrubs had become much more abundant when transplanted to the warmest site which also had highest N deposition. As a result ericoid aboveground biomass in the transplanted mesocosms increased most at the southernmost site| this site also had highest ericoid biomass in the undisturbed vegetation. The two dominant Sphagnum species showed opposing responses when transplanted southward; Sphagnum balticum height increment decreased| whereas S. fuscum height increment increased when transplanted southward. Sphagnum production did not differ significantly among the transplanted mesocosms| but was lowest in the southernmost control plots. The dwarf shrub expansion and increased N concentrations in plant tissues we observed| point in the direction of a positive feedback toward vascular plant-dominance suppressing peat-forming Sphagnum in the long term. However| our data also indicate that precipitation and phosphorus availability influence the competitive balance between Sphagnum| dwarf shrubs and graminoids. 715,2010,4,4,Field theory for biogeography: a spatially explicit model for predicting patterns of biodiversity,Predicting the variation of biodiversity across the surface of the Earth is a fundamental issue in ecology| and in this article we focus on one of the most widely studied spatial biodiversity patterns: the species-area relationship (SAR). The SAR is a central tool in conservation| being used to predict species loss following global climate change| and is striking in its universality throughout different geographical regions and across the tree of life. In this article we draw upon the methods of quantum field theory and the foundation of neutral community ecology to derive the first spatially explicit neutral prediction for the SAR. We find that the SAR has three phases| with a power law increase at intermediate scales| consistent with decades of documented empirical patterns. Our model also provides a building block for incorporating non-neutral biological variation| with the potential to bridge the gap between neutral and niche-based approaches to community assembly. Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 87-95. 455,2010,3,3,Financial impact of energy efficiency under a federal combined efficiency and renewable electricity standard: Case study of a Kansas "super-utility",Historically| local| state and federal policies have separately promoted the generation of electricity from renewable technologies and the pursuit of energy efficiency to help mitigate the detrimental effects of global climate change and foster energy independence. Federal policymakers are currently considering and several states have enacted a combined efficiency and renewable electricity standard which proponents argue provides a comprehensive approach with greater flexibility and at lower cost. We examine the financial impacts on various stakeholders from alternative compliance strategies with a Combined Efficiency and Renewable Electricity Standard (CERES) using a case study approach for utilities in Kansas. Our results suggest that an investor-owned utility is likely to pursue the most lucrative compliance strategy for its shareholders-one that under-invests in energy efficiency resources. If a business model for energy efficiency inclusive of both a lost fixed cost recovery mechanism and a shareholder incentive mechanism is implemented| our analysis indicates that an investor-owned utility would be more willing to pursue energy efficiency as a lower-cost CERES compliance strategy. Absent implementing such a regulatory mechanism| separate energy efficiency and renewable portfolio standards would improve the likelihood of reducing reliance on fossil fuels at least-cost through the increased pursuit of energy efficiency. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10737,2010,2,4,Fire| Fuel Composition and Resilience Threshold in Subalpine Ecosystem,Background: Forecasting the effects of global changes on high altitude ecosystems requires an understanding of the long-term relationships between biota and forcing factors to identify resilience thresholds. Fire is a crucial forcing factor: both fuel build-up from land-abandonment in European mountains| and more droughts linked to global warming are likely to increase fire risks. Methods: To assess the vegetation response to fire on a millennium time-scale| we analyzed evidence of stand-to-local vegetation dynamics derived from sedimentary plant macroremains from two subalpine lakes. Paleobotanical reconstructions at high temporal resolution| together with a fire frequency reconstruction inferred from sedimentary charcoal| were analyzed by Superposed Epoch Analysis to model plant behavior before| during and after fire events. Principal Findings: We show that fuel build-up from arolla pine (Pinus cembra) always precedes fires| which is immediately followed by a rapid increase of birch (Betula sp.)| then by ericaceous species after 25-75 years| and by herbs after 50-100 years. European larch (Larix decidua)| which is the natural co-dominant species of subalpine forests with Pinus cembra| is not sensitive to fire| while the abundance of Pinus cembra is altered within a 150-year period after fires. A long-term trend in vegetation dynamics is apparent| wherein species that abound later in succession are the functional drivers| loading the environment with fuel for fires. This system can only be functional if fires are mainly driven by external factors (e. g. climate)| with the mean interval between fires being longer than the minimum time required to reach the late successional stage| here 150 years. Conclusion: Current global warming conditions which increase drought occurrences| combined with the abandonment of land in European mountain areas| creates ideal ecological conditions for the ignition and the spread of fire. A fire return interval of less than 150 years would threaten the dominant species and might override the resilience of subalpine forests. 11059,2010,2,4,First cellular approach of the effects of global warming on groundwater organisms: a study of the HSP70 gene expression,Whereas the consequences of global warming at population or community levels are well documented| studies at the cellular level are still scarce. The study of the physiological or metabolic effects of such small increases in temperature (between +2 degrees C and +6 degrees C) is difficult because they are below the amplitude of the daily or seasonal thermal variations occurring in most environments. In contrast| subterranean biotopes are highly thermally buffered (+/- 1 degrees C within a year)| and underground water organisms could thus be particularly well suited to characterise cellular responses of global warming. To this purpose| we studied genes encoding chaperone proteins of the HSP70 family in amphipod crustaceans belonging to the ubiquitous subterranean genus Niphargus. An HSP70 sequence was identified in eight populations of two complexes of species of the Niphargus genus (Niphargus rhenorhodanensis and Niphargus virei complexes). Expression profiles were determined for one of these by reverse transcription and quantitative polymerase chain reaction| confirming the inducible nature of this gene. An increase in temperature of 2 degrees C seemed to be without effect on N. rhenorhodanensis physiology| whereas a heat shock of +6 degrees C represented an important thermal stress for these individuals. Thus| this study shows that although Niphargus individuals do not undergo any daily or seasonal thermal variations in underground water| they display an inducible HSP70 heat shock response. This controlled laboratory-based physiological experiment constitutes a first step towards field investigations of the cellular consequences of global warming on subterranean organisms. 10409,2010,2,4,First Pacific record of the north Atlantic ascidian Molgula citrina - bioinvasion or circumpolar distribution?,The small brooding ascidian Molgula citrina Alder and Hancock| 1848 has long been known as a common inhabitant of shallow waters on both sides of the north Atlantic on subtidal natural hard substrates and also as a fouler of floating docks. There arc published records from the White Sea (NW Russia)| but none from the north Pacific. In May and August 2008| a number of adult brooding Molgula sp. specimens were collected from floating docks at the small fishing village of Seldovia on the Kenai Peninsula at Kachemak Bay| Alaska. Morphologically these individuals exactly match Atlantic specimens of Molgula citrina in all characters that were examined. The unique constellation of characters for this species differentiates it from all other Molgula species| as noted by Van Name (1945). In addition| the full-length 18S and 28S rDNA sequences are identical for both the Alaska specimens and New England M. citrina. Is this a new invasion| or is M. citrina a northern circumpolar species that was somehow overlooked? If this new record indicates a natural distribution| why has it not been collected before? If it is a recent introduction| it is unlikely that M. citrina| an inhabitant of cold waters| could survive in sea chests of ships from the N. Atlantic arriving in Alaska via the Panama Canal| but the intriguing idea exists of transport from Atlantic to Pacific through the Northwest or Northeast Passages. As global warming diminishes the ice cover in this region| more and more ships arc traversing the Northwest Passage across northern Canada as well as the NE Passage across northern Russia| representing significant new routes for anthropogenic transport of marine species. The tadpoles of this small brooder arc retained for some time after hatching| resulting in an extremely short free larval life| but could survive as metamorphosed juveniles attached in sea chests or free-floating in ballast water. They have a wide temperature tolerance and once they metamorphose can live free-floating in sea water for some time. They become very sticky and will ultimately stick to whatever they contact. Thus they could conceivably live for many generations in sea chests and sustain a viable population from which to invade new habitats. 10569,2010,2,4,First records of Heterotoma merioptera (Scopoli| 1763) and Aradus serbicus (Horvath| 1888) (Heteroptera: Miridae et Aradidae) from Germany,The plant bug Heterotoma merioptera (Scopoli| 1763) and the flat bug Aradus serbicus (Horvath| 1888) are recorded for the first time from Germany. Annotations on the circumstances of finding as well as remarks on the species general distribution are given. A. serbicus is considered to represent an ancient| primeval forest relict species within Central Europe; whereas H. merioptera may have some bearing on global warming. 10960,2010,3,3,Flammability Characteristics of HFO-1234yf,A new low global warming refrigerant| CF(3)CF=CH(2) (HFO-1234yf)| has been developed to replace HFC-134a in automotive air conditioning systems. HFC-134a is being phased out in the European Union due to high global warming potential. HFO-1234yf is highly energy efficient| exhibits low toxicity| and can potentially be used in systems currently designed for refrigerant HFC-134a with minimal modifications. Significant work has been completed to assess the flammability characteristics of HFO-1234yf. Though it is flammable per ASTM E-681| it is significantly less so than HFC-152a which has also been considered as an HFC-134a alternative. HFO-1234yf has a relatively high lower flammability limit at 6.2 vol% in air Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling has shown it is very unlikely the lower flammability limit will be reached when the refrigerant is leaked into the passenger compartment of a vehicle. HFO-1234yf also has a high minimum ignition energy (MIE) from 5|000 to 10|000 mJ which indicates there may be very lbw potential ignition sources in a vehicle. It also has very low burning velocity at 1.5 cm/sec indicating low potential for damage should an ignition occur. Several automotive industry groups have completed extensive risk assessments which have concluded HFO-1234yf is safe to use as a refrigerant in vehicles. This article will review flammability test results and challenges that were overcome to measure flammability of a mildly flammable refrigerant as well as CFD modeling work for vehicle leakage scenarios. (C) 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog 29: 150-154| 2010 721,2010,4,4,Flood Extent Mapping Based on TerraSAR-X Data,The use of Earth observation data and techniques in the context of disaster management support has received growing importance in recent years. Due to global climate change the scientific community foresees an increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. The high resolution| multi-polarization and multi-incidence angle capabilities of the radar satellite TerraSAR-X| its quick site access and receiving times open interesting perspectives for flood mapping and subsequent assessment of damages. Furthermore| the nearly all-weather capacity of SAR data constitutes its main advantage above optical systems for mapping of flood events. The work presented in this paper focuses on the development of an object-based classification approach for operational flood extent mapping in near-real time conditions using TerraSAR-X data. The object-based methodology is assisted by pixel-based operations and both are implemented in a solution within the eCognition software environment. The final objective is to develop a tool which can be easily used by an interpreter without the need of a profound knowledge of image processing. For this purpose an eCognition based semi-automated solution - a Graphical User Interface with a rule set behind - is set up. This application is tested in various scenarios and is further developed in parallel to these tests. The overall study clearly demonstrates the potential of TerraSAR-X data and object oriented methods for a rapid delineation of flood extent in an operational environment. 11458,2010,2,4,Floristic patterns| ecological gradients and biodiversity in the composite channels (Central Alps| Italy),Composite channels in the alpine region are heterogeneous environments resulting from a variety of erosive and depositional processes. They can have different ecological functions: habitats for plant species| conduits| filters| sources and sinks. They can contain sparse| intermittent vegetation cover| and are frequently free of vegetation except along the banks and levees. We hypothesised that this disturbed and fragmented landscape unit encourages biodiversity with characteristic plant species adapted to survive in the channel niches. In this study| which was carried out mostly in the subalpine belt of the Adamello-Presanella Group| we aimed to characterize floristic and biodiversity patterns with respect to the dominant channel gradients by means of a canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) ordination approach and an analysis of diversity indexes. The frequency table and CCA results showed considerable floristic heterogeneity within the composite channels mainly as a function of nutrient availability and altitude. Different gradients of biodiversity (alpha| beta and gamma diversity) depended on the geomorphological disturbances (alpha and gamma) and environmental heterogeneity across the channel subunits. Geomorphological processes seem to play key roles in the dispersal of seeds| spores and propagules and in the colonization| establishment and spread of plants in this complex environment. The composite channels could play an important refuge-habitat function for microthermic species during the widely accepted current trend of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 361,2010,2,4,Flow regime alteration effects on the organic C dynamics in semiarid stream ecosystems,There is evidence of an ongoing alteration of the flow regime owing to climate change forcing| which has resulted in substantial increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events such as floods and droughts. Such changes in the flow regime may have major implications in freshwater ecosystems and| in particular| in the organic carbon dynamics in semiarid stream ecosystems. Much is known about the role of extreme flow events on structuring stream ecosystems| but few studies explored the effects of extreme flow events magnitude| timing| and sequence on stream ecosystems. To assess the effect of extreme events on stream organic C dynamics| a simple and flexible modeling approach was applied to simulate the organic carbon dynamics in a simplified river reach. The river reach model was initially calibrated and tested using long-term data for stream water velocity and amount of organic carbon in sediment. After that| multiple scenarios differing in the extreme flow events (floods and droughts) sequence and magnitude were used to simulate the effects of possible flow regime changes on the stream organic carbon dynamics. Initial expectations were that: (i) an increase in the magnitude or frequency of extreme flow events would reduce the amount of organic carbon respired within the simulated river reach| and (ii) relationship between the timings of the extreme flow events and of the litterfall input would influence considerably the effects of the extreme flow events. Results pointed out that: (i) the amount of processed carbon respect the amount entering the ecosystem was affected by extreme events such floods and droughts| but the relevance of those events differed along the year| with a maximal effect during the litterfall period; (ii) extreme event timing rather than the magnitude was more relevant to the stream organic carbon dynamics; and (iii) the amount of respired carbon in the ecosystem could be amplified or reduced depending on event sequence. Increasing awareness of the role of inland waters in the global carbon cycle and the shaping role of hydrology on the stream organic carbon dynamics stress the need to better quantify carbon fluxes and the hydrological controls on these fluxes. 11189,2010,2,4,Flowering and Fruiting Phenology of 24 Plant Species on the North Slope of Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest),Phenological background information for alpine species is limited from extremely high altitudes. Flowering and fruiting phenology was monitored for 24 plant species at 5|180 m a.s.l. near the base camp area on the north slope of Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) in Tibet| western China. The dates of first flowering| peak flowering| end of flowering| first fruiting| peak fruiting and flowering period were recorded. There was a wide variation in onset of flowering| long flowering duration| a relative synchrony between the onset of flowering and fruiting| and one species was exclusively vegetative. These results suggest that the species have evolved various phenological strategies as adaptations to the short growing season with limited resources and pollinators in this harsh alpine environment at extremely high elevations. With a background of global warming| local plant species will represent an advancing trend in onset of flowering. 11254,2010,3,3,Food waste conversion options in Singapore: Environmental impacts based on an LCA perspective,Proper management and recycling of huge volumes of food waste is one of the challenges faced by Singapore. Semakau island - the only offshore landfill of the nation - only accepts inert| inorganic solid waste and therefore a large bulk of food waste is directed to incinerators. A remaining small percent is sent for recycling via anaerobic digestion (AD)| followed by composting of the digestate material. This article investigates the environmental performance of four food waste conversion scenarios - based on a life cycle assessment perspective - taking into account air emissions| useful energy from the incinerators and AD process| as well as carbon dioxide mitigation from the compost products derived from the digestate material and a proposed aerobic composting system. The life cycle impact results were generated for global warming. acidification| eutrophication| photochemical oxidation and energy use. The total normalized results showed that a small-scale proposed aerobic composting system is more environmentally favorable than incinerators| but less ideal compared to the AD process. By making full use of the AD's Recycling Phase II process alone. the Singapore Green Plan's 2012 aim to increase the recycling of food waste to 30% can easily be achieved| along with reduced global warming impacts. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11358,2010,5,4,Foraminiferal biostratigraphy and paleoenvironments of the Oligocene-Miocene carbonate succession in Campos Basin| southeastern Brazil,The present investigation of the Cenozoic carbonate succession of the Campos Basin| offshore southeastern Brazil| has resulted in a high resolution biostratigraphic profile of the region based on cores and cutting samples. In general| the studied carbonate successions evolved during three depositional stages: 1) In the Oligocene a warm period prevailed where temperature-sensitive organisms| such as larger benthic foraminifera| corals| algae and arthropods thrived in a reefal setting. Four different benthic foraminiferal biozones (BF1 - BF4) were defined based upon the occurrence of the following foraminiferal assemblages which were dominated by (BF1) lepidocyclinids| (BF2) miogypsinids| (BF3) Miogypsina-Amphistegina| and (BF4) Miogypsina and Heterostegina. These biozones| are equivalent to the P18-P22 planktonic foraminiferal biozones| and reflect temporal changes of environmental and ecological conditions associated with minor sea level fluctuation. 2) The warm period continued through the early Miocene| where corals| bryozoans| rare planktonic foraminifera and larger benthic foraminifera thrived in clear agitated waters of a forereefal setting. This period was represented by two benthic foraminiferal zones| BF5 - BF6| equivalent to the N4-N7 planktonic foraminiferal biozones. Miogypsinids| Lepidocyclina and Heterostegina dominate BF5| while attached forms growing in a massive branching structure| such as Sporadotrema are prominent in BF6. 3) The third depositional stage is reflected by a rapid deepening of the carbonate facies at the onset of the middle Miocene| coeval with a global warming event| the so-called mid-Miocene Climatic Maximum. This resulted in the replacement of the reefal organisms by pelagic sediments containing planktonic foraminifera. The planktonic foraminiferal biozones PF1 and PF2 are equivalent to N8-N12 planktonic foraminiferal biozones| and were present in all wells. This rapid sea level change is inferred to be related to a global warming event and related oceanographic changes. The high resolution depositional and biostratigraphic scheme put forward here for the Campos Basin will enable a more detailed understanding of the general regional evolution of the economically important Cenozoic carbonate facies that are found off the Atlantic margins of South America| the Caribbean and West Africa. 11429,2010,3,2,Forecasting petrol demand and assessing the impact of selective strategies to reduce fuel consumption,The use of fossil fuels in transportation is an important topic as a result of growing concerns over global warming. Automobile petrol demand has been of particular interest to researchers and policy-makers| given that the automobile is a major contributor to the enhanced greenhouse effect. This paper forecasts Australia's automobile petrol demand up to the year 2020 based on the best performing forecasting model selected out of eight models. In order to establish ways to reduce the demand for petrol| and the consequent by-product of reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions| we have estimated the impact on CO2 for several potential policy instruments| using Transportation and Environment Strategy Impact Simulator (an integrated transport| land use and environmental strategy impact simulation programme). We find that a carbon tax of AU$0.50/kg can reduce automobile kilometres by 5.9%| resulting in reduced demand for petrol and a reduction in CO2 of 1.5%. 10581,2010,2,4,Forecasting phenology under global warming,As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world| spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting| with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes| however| is limited. Not all species are responding similarly| and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change| but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here| we use a long-term dataset (1953-2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically| we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species| spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later| with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe| where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology. 11407,2010,2,4,Forecasting the combined effects of disparate disturbances on the persistence of long-lived gorgonians: a case study of Paramuricea clavata,The combined effects of disparate impacts on population health are a continuing problem in risk assessment and management for threatened species. Populations of red gorgonian Paramuricea clavata in the NW Mediterranean Sea are threatened both by chronic and localized increases in mortality due to high diving activity and by widespread but episodic mass mortality events related to climatic anomalies. Using demographic data obtained from 3 populations (2 under contrasting levels of diving and one affected by a 1999 mass mortality event)| we developed size-structured matrix models to forecast the long-term consequences of both disturbances and their combined effects. When we considered only the effects of diver damage| our results showed that population stability could be achieved with an increase in the annual survival of adult colonies of between 3 and 7%| demonstrating the need for diving reduction in the study locations| where there are estimated to be between 30000 and 70000 dives yr(-1). Modeling the effects of mass mortality events alone showed a low annual population growth rate (0.886) and near certain extinction risk over even short time scales. Considering these 2 types of impacts together| we found that the effects of mass mortality events aggravate the decline in gorgonian populations subjected to high diving impact| reaching the extinction threshold after 36 to 55 yr under the actual frequency of mass mortality events. Simulated reduction of diving effects dramatically increased the time to quasi-extinction for populations subjected to realistic frequencies of mass mortality events. Our simulations reveal the need of management actions to ensure the gorgonian viability in the face of climate change| and suggest that management of more controllable impacts| such as diving| can help buffer populations against the less controllable effects of climate change. 10508,2010,4,4,Forest floor CO(2) flux estimated from soil CO(2) and radon concentrations,Having a quantitative understanding of the carbon cycle in forests is of great importance for predicting global warming issues. Carbon dioxide production in soil is the largest CO(2) source in forests| and exhibits large temporal and spatial variations. Continuous observation of soil CO(2) flux at many sites over a forest is therefore necessary to obtain representative soil CO(2) fluxes for the forest. In this study| a gradient method to measure soil CO(2) flux indirectly from soil radon and CO(2) measurements was theoretically modified to conveniently measure the soil CO(2) flux from soil radon and CO(2) concentrations measured at one soil depth. To experimentally test the modified method| a field observation was conducted continuously in a forest over a 31-day period. Since changes in the soil water content near the soil surface were small throughout the observation| a constant effective diffusivity for CO(2) was assumed for the soil CO(2) flux estimation. The soil CO(2) flux was then calculated as the product of the effective diffusivity and the gradient of the soil CO(2) concentration| each calculated from soil radon and CO(2) concentrations. The estimated flux ranged from 1.9 to 5.8 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)| and| correlating well with the reference value| measured with a conventional ventilated-chamber method.. We therefore conclude that the modified gradient method based on the measurement of soil CO(2) and radon concentration at one depth is reliable| at least under conditions where the change in the soil water content is small. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10636,2010,2,4,Forest plant community changes during 1989-2007 in response to climate warming in the Jura Mountains (France and Switzerland),Question How strong are climate warming-driven changes within mid-elevation forest communities? Observations of plant community change within temperate mountain forest ecosystems in response to recent warming are scarce in comparison to high-elevation alpine and nival ecosystems| perhaps reflecting the confounding influence of forest stand dynamics. Location Jura Mountains (France and Switzerland). Methods We assessed changes in plant community composition by surveying 154 Abies alba forest vegetation releves (550-1|350 m a.s.l.) in 1989 and 2007. Over this period| temperatures increased while precipitation did not change. Correspondence analysis (CA) and ecological indicator values were used to measure changes in plant community composition. Releves in even- and uneven-aged stands were analysed separately to determine the influence of forest stand dynamics. We also analysed changes in species distribution to detect shifts along the elevation gradient by focusing on the lowest| central and highest positions of lowland and mountain species altitudinal ranges. Results We found significant shifts along the first CA axis| which reflected a change in plant community composition towards a greater frequency of lowland species. Analyses of ecological indicator values indicated increases in temperature and light availability in A. alba stands| particularly in even-aged stands. However| no major changes in overall species distribution were found. Conclusions The community-level changes are consistent with effects of climate warming and local stand dynamics. Changes in species distribution were small in comparison to observed local temperature increases| perhaps reflecting dispersal limitation| phenotypic plasticity or microclimatic buffering by the tree canopy. Causality cannot rigorously be inferred from such a descriptive study; however| we suggest that recent warming is now driving plant community change in the climatically more moderate mid-elevation forest setting. 544,2010,3,4,Forging the Solution to the Energy Challenge: The Role of Materials Science and Materials Scientists,The energy challenge is central to the most important strategic problems facing the United States and the world. It is increasingly clear that even large-scale deployments of the best technologies available today cannot meet the rising energy demands of a growing world population. Achieving a secure and sustainable energy future will require full utilization of| and substantial improvements in| a comprehensive portfolio of energy systems and technologies. This goal is complicated by several factors. First| energy strategies are inextricably linked to national security and health issues. Second| in developing and deploying energy technologies| it is vital to consider not only environmental issues| such as global climate change| but also economic considerations| which strongly influence both public and political views on energy policy. Third| a significant and sustained effort in basic and applied research and development (R&D) will be required to deliver the innovations needed to ensure a desirable energy future. Innovations in materials science and engineering are especially needed to overcome the limits of essentially all energy technologies. A wealth of historical evidence demonstrates that such innovations are also the key to economic prosperity. From the development of the earliest cities around flint-trading centers| to the Industrial Revolution| to today's silicon-based global economy| the advantage goes to those who lead in exploiting materials. I view our challenge by considering the rate of innovation and the transition of discovery to the marketplace as the relationship among R&D investment| a skilled and talented workforce| business innovations| and the activities of competitors. Most disturbing in analyzing this relationship is the need for trained workers in science| technology| engineering| and mathematics (STEM). To develop the STEM workforce needed for innovation| we need sustainable| positive change in STEM education at all levels from preschool through postgraduate. Materials sciences can be a significant magnet in attracting students to STEM areas| and a focused effort is needed to ensure that it is included in STEM programs. From this effort will come the next generation of materials scientists and the innovations that will enable us to overcome the energy challenge. 10515,2010,5,3,Fossil insect folivory tracks paleotemperature for six million years,Paleoecological studies enhance our understanding of biotic response to climate change because they consider timescales not accessible through laboratory or ecological studies. From 60 to 51 million years ago (Ma)| global temperatures gradually warmed to the greatest sustained highs of the last 65 million years. Superimposed on this gradual warming is a transient spike of high temperature and pCO(2) (partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum 55.8 Ma) and a subsequent short-term cooling event (similar to 54 Ma). The highly resolved continental fossil record of the Bighorn Basin| Wyoming| USA| spans this interval and is therefore uniquely suited to examine the long-term effects of temperature change on the two dominant groups in terrestrial ecosystems| plants and insect herbivores. We sampled insect damage on fossil angiosperm leaves at nine well-dated localities that range in age from 52.7 to 59 Ma. A total of 9071 leaves belonging to 107 species were examined for the presence or absence of 71 insect-feeding damage types. Damage richness| frequency| and composition were analyzed on the bulk floras and individual host species. Overall| there was a strong positive correlation between changes in damage richness and changes in estimated temperature| a weak positive relationship for damage frequency and temperature| and no significant correlation for floral diversity. Thus| insect damage richness appears to be more sensitive to past climate change than to plant diversity| although plant diversity in our samples only ranges from 6 to 25 dicot species. The close tracking of the richness of herbivore damage| a presumed proxy for actual insect herbivore richness| to both warming and cooling over a finely divided| extended time interval has profound importance for interpreting the evolution of insects and plant-insect associations in the context of deep time. Our results also indicate that increased insect herbivory is likely to be a net long-term effect of anthropogenic warming. 11416,2010,4,2,Fossil-fuel constraints on global warming,In 2008 and 2009 two papers by Kharecha and Hansen and by Net and Cooper examined possible fossil energy availability and energy consumption scenarios and consequences for future climate. The papers yield somewhat similar results regarding atmospheric CO(2) levels| but they reach substantially different conclusions regarding future climate change. Here| we compare their methods and results. Our work shows that Net and Cooper's paper significantly underestimates future warming. Net and Cooper conclude that even if all the available fossil fuels would be burned at the maximum possible rate during this century| the consequent warming would cap at less than 1 degrees C above the 2000 level. We find that under Net and Cooper's assumption of an intensive exploitation of fossil fuels - the global temperature in 2100 will likely reach levels which would lead to severely damaging long-term impacts. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11516,2010,4,3,Fractional release factors of long-lived halogenated organic compounds in the tropical stratosphere,Fractional release factors (FRFs) of organic trace gases are time-independent quantities that influence the calculation of Global Warming Potentials and Ozone Depletion Potentials. We present the first set of vertically resolved FRFs for 15 long-lived halocarbons in the tropical stratosphere up to 34 km altitude. They were calculated from measurements on air samples collected on board balloons and a high altitude aircraft. We compare the derived dependencies of FRFs on the mean stratospheric transit times (the so-called mean ages of air) with similarly derived FRFs originating from measurements at higher latitudes and find significant differences. Moreover a comparison with averaged FRFs currently used by the World Meteorological Organisation revealed the limitations of these measures due to their observed vertical and latitudinal variability. The presented data set could be used to improve future ozone level and climate projections. 10967,2010,2,4,Freeze-thaw Effects on Sorption/Desorption of Dissolved Organic Carbon in Wetland Soils,The effects of freeze-thaw cycles on sorption/desorption of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in two wetland soils and one reclaimed wetland soil were investigated. DOC concentrations added were 0-600 mg/L. Laboratory incubations of sorption/desorption of DOC had been carried out at -15 degrees C for 10 h| and then at +5 degrees C for 13 h. Soil samples were refrozen and thawed subsequently for 5 cycles. Initial Mass model was used to describe sorption behavior of DOC. The results indicate that freeze-thaw cycles can significantly increase the sorption capacity of DOC and reduce the desorption capacity of DOC in the three soils. The freeze-thaw effects on desorption of DOC in soils increase with the increasing freeze-thaw cycles. The conversion of natural wetlands to soybean farmland can decrease the sorption capacity and increase the desorption capacity of DOC in soils. Global warming and reclamation may increase DOC release| and subsequently increase the loss of carbon and the emission of greenhouse gas. 11389,2010,2,4,Frequency Analysis as a Tool for Assessing Adverse Conditions During a Massive Fish Kill in the St. Lawrence River| Canada,During the summer of 2001| the largest fish kill in the recorded history of the St. Lawrence River occurred. More than 25|000 dead carp were recovered. Preliminary analyses suggested hydroclimatic factors may have triggered the fish kill. Long time series of hydroclimatic variables were available upstream and downstream from the study area. In order to investigate if hydroclimatic conditions were extreme during the summer of 2001| frequency analyses were performed on time series of air and water temperature| water level| and solar radiation. During this period| the daily maximum water temperature was abnormally high (return period of 47 years) relative to other years. Air temperature was also high (return period of 22 years) and water level was very low (return period of 67 years). Results showed that hydroclimatic forcings were acting at two different time scales. First| short-term extremes are more likely to have direct impacts on ecosystems| such as lethal stress caused by oxygen depletion in shallow areas. Long-term extremes have indirect effects| which are more difficult to detect| such as immunosuppression. These results reiterate the importance of water temperature in aquatic habitat| particularly in the present context of global warming and climate change. 10572,2010,2,3,From beef cattle to sheep under global warming? An analysis of adaptation by livestock species choice in South America,This paper examines how South American farmers' choices of livestock species vary across the range of climate and in turn infer from them as to what would happen under climate changes. We examine the choice of five primary species using a multinomial logit model with and without climate variability measures based on 1300 livestock farm surveys in seven countries. The results indicate that climate variables are highly significant determinants of primary species choice after controlling for soils| geography| household characteristics| and country fixed effects. We find the probability of adopting any livestock increases with warming| but decreases when it becomes too wet. The impacts of climate change would vary by species and climate scenarios. For example| under a hot and dry CCC scenario by 2060| beef cattle decrease by 3.2%| dairy cattle by 2.3%| pigs by 0.5%| and chickens by 0.9%| which is offset by a large increase in sheep by 7%. These adaptive changes vary again by country. Large changes are observed in the Andean countries. Under the hot dry scenario| daily cattle increase in Uruguay and Argentina| but decrease elsewhere. The increase in sheep occurs mostly in the Andes mountain countries such as Chile| Colombia| Ecuador| and Venezuela. Under a milder and wetter scenario| beef cattle choice declines in Colombia. Ecuador| and Venezuela| but increases in Argentina and Chile. Sheep increase in Colombia and Venezuela| but decrease in the high mountains of Chile where chickens are chosen more frequently. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 674,2010,2,4,Frost and forest stand effects on the population dynamics of Asplenium scolopendrium,Our objective was to analyze which factors are critical for the dynamics of terrestrial Asplenium scolopendrium populations at the northern edge of its distribution. Therefore| a long-term study (1978-1999) on the performance and demography of this fern species has been carried out in three different forest stands (Picea sitchensis with Fagus sylvatica| P. sitchensis with thinning| and Fraxinus excelsior) in the Netherlands. We used the recorded demographic data to parameterize 37 transition matrices. The number of frost days in severe winters correlated closely with frond damage and resulted in increased mortality and retrogression. Landslip on the trench banks and intraspecific competition were also found to increase mortality. In the F. excelsior plot| plants grew faster and bigger| produced more fronds and formed a more closed fern cover than in the P. sitchensis stands| likely due to higher light levels. Life-table response experiments revealed that reproduction contributed greatly to the differences in projected population growth rates: reproduction was importantly higher in the F. excelsior and in the thinned P. sitchensis plots than in the P. sitchensis-F. sylvatica plot. These differences can be attributed to an initial difference in light climate and to the accumulation of F. sylvatica litter which reduced recruitment. Recruitment occurred on bare soil but also in open moss carpets. We expect that the fern Asplenium scolopendrium will profit at its northern distribution edge when severe winters will occur less frequently| which is one of the expectations for global climate change. 10597,2010,3,2,FUEL CONSUMPTION AND POLLUTANT EMISSIONS REDUCTION FOR DIESEL ENGINES BY RECOVERY OF WASTED ENERGY,The recovery of wasted energy is an important technique to reduce pollution and its global warming effects which are more pronounced associated in the last time with human activities. The internal combustion engines extensively used as power and transport equipments are responsible for a major part of this pollution. In the last decades a lot of research activity was dedicated to improving efficiency by fuel consumption reduction and wasted energy recovery. In this sense the concept of thermal engine insulation has been for many years subject of intense researches dealing with the decrease of the heat transferred to the combustion chamber surroundings looking this way for thermal efficiency increasing. A lot of these efforts leaded but to controversial results. The increase in thermal efficiency expected to result from lowering the heat lost to the chamber walls was not always confirmed by experiments. The aim of this work-in-progress is to bring a contribution to understanding the existing synergies which have to be considered when promoting the energy recovery process from the exhaust and cooling systems potentialities of the internal combustion engines. In this sense it appears not so effective to apply combustion chamber walls heat insulation with the major objective of increasing engine efficiency and effective power; it seems however to be as more justified solution applying partial thermal insulation of the turbocharger and developing some energy recovery systems. Simulations performed with dedicated codes for thermodynamic engines analysis reveal the existing potentiality of energy recovery from the exhaust gases. 10668,2010,3,2,Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning,Electricity generation is an important source of total CO(2) emissions| which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years| investment decisions today will determine the CO(2)-intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern| less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future| they may become more attractive| especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time| technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper| we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise| old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again| which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11119,2010,2,4,Fungal and bacterial mediated denitrification in wetlands: Influence of sediment redox condition,Fungal and bacterial denitrification rates were determined under a range of redox conditions in sediment from a Louisiana swamp forest used for wastewater treatment. Sediment was incubated in microcosms at 6 Eh levels (-200| -100| 0| +100| +250 and +400 mV) ranging from strongly reducing to moderately oxidizing conditions. Denitrification was determined using the substrate-induced respiration (SIR) inhibition and acetylene inhibition methods. Cycloheximide (C(15)H(23)NO(4)) was used as the fungal inhibitor and streptomycin (C(21)F(139)N(7)O(12)) as the bacterial inhibitor. At Eh values of +250 my and +400 mV| denitrification rates by fungi and bacteria were 34.3-35.1% and 1.46-1.59% of total denitrification| respectively| indicating that fungi were responsible for most of the denitrification under aerobic or weakly reducing conditions. On the other hand| at Eh -200 mV| denitrification rates of fungi and bacteria were 17.6% and 64.9% of total denitrification| respectively| indicating that bacteria were responsible for most of the denitrification under strongly reducing conditions. Results show fungal denitrification was dominant under moderately reducing to weakly oxidizing conditions (Eh > +250 mV)| whereas bacterial denitrification was dominant under strongly reducing condition (Eh < -100 mV). At Eh values between -100 to +100 mV| denitrification by fungi and bacteria were 37.9-43.2% and 53.0-51.1% of total denitrification| respectively| indicating that both bacteria and fungi contributed significantly to denitrification under these redox conditions. Because N(2)O is an important gaseous denitrification product in sediment| fungal denitrification could be of greater ecological significance under aerobic or moderately reducing conditions contributing to greenhouse gas emission and global warming potential (GWP). (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11410,2010,2,4,Fungi associated with the decline of Pinus halepensis in Spain,Fungal species richness and composition within needles and twigs in 55 stands of Pinus halepensis| spread out over the whole Iberian Peninsula| were determined. The aim was to evaluate the relationships of fungal communities with local environmental variables| in order to analyze the potential causes of the current decline of this pine species in Spain. A total of 35 fungal taxa were isolated from 1980 moist chambers analysed (990 per vegetal tissue). A taxon within the Alternaria alternata complex was most frequent| followed by Leptostroma pinastri| Aspergillus niger| Diplodia pinea and Phomopsis sp. At the tree level| tissue was a significant response variable and a higher species richness was found in needles as compared to twigs. On the other hand| the multivariate analysis showed the environmental variables 'age'| 'shadow'| 'elevation'| 'mean temperature'| 'illumination' and 'availability of water' significantly influenced fungal species composition. In particular| 'mean temperature'| was an important variable implicated in the general weakening of this thermophilic pine species| and appeared to be inversely correlated with the occurrence of several conifer pathogens such as Brunchorstia pinea| Cytospora sp.| Diplodia pinea| Naemacyclus niveus| Pestalotiopsis stevensonii and Sclerophoma pythiophila. This study shows a possible combined effect of abiotic and biotic stresses in causing the general decline of Allepo pine in Spain. 10453,2010,2,4,Future changes in Central Europe heat waves expected to mostly follow summer mean warming,Daily output from the PRUDENCE ensemble of regional climate simulations for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries over Europe is used to show that the increasing intensity of the most damaging summer heat waves over Central Europe is mostly due to higher base summer temperatures. In this context| base temperature is defined as the mean of the seasonal cycle component for those calendar days when regional heat waves occur and is close| albeit not identical| to the mean temperature for July-August. Although 36-47% of future Central Europe July and August days at the end of the twenty-first century are projected to be extreme according to the present day climatology| specific changes in deseasonalized heat wave anomalies are projected to be relatively small. Instead| changes in summer base temperatures appear much larger| clearly identifiable and of the same order of magnitude as changes in the whole magnitude of heat waves. Our results bear important consequences for the predictability of central European heat wave intensity under global warming conditions. 10961,2010,4,3,Future climate change and the British Quaternary research community,The uncertainty surrounding estimates of future global warming| even given a single scenario for increasing greenhouse gas emissions| is unacceptably large and has not declined substantially over the last three decades. The Quaternary science community is uniquely placed to constrain the array of possible futures by providing reconstructions of past climate that can be used| together with instrumental data| to weight the model variants in perturbed physics ensembles| which accept the uncertainty in many of the model parameters. The models which give the best fit with the climate of the past can then be given most weight when projected Into the future. Computing resources have restricted such experiments to relatively simple models| so that information on spatial differences in palaeoclimate could not be fully exploited. Within a few years it will be possible to apply this method to complex general circulation models| so if the Quaternary community acts now it will be possible to supply the information that is required The best time period to use is the last one to two thousand years. The wider the range of climate parameters that can be reconstructed| and the wider the range of locations| the more constraint will be provided. To be useful| the palaeoclimate reconstructions need to have realistic estimates of uncertainty| so a clear emphasis on replication| calibration and verification will be required. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved. 10938,2010,2,2,Future climate change spells catastrophe for Blanchard's cricket frog| Acris blanchardi (Amphibia: Anura: Hylidae),Climate change may be one of the greatest environmental catastrophes encountered by modern human civilization. The potential influence of this global disaster on wildlife populations is subject to question. I interpolated how seasonal variation in weather patterns influences growth and reproduction in the Blanchard's cricket frog (Acris blanchardi). Then I extrapolated the influence of future climate conditions on these life history characteristics using fuzzy regression. Fuzzy regression was an accurate predictor of growth and reproduction based on the climate conditions present from 1900-2007. It predicted that the climate projections expected for Arkansas by 2100 could reduce total reproductive investment in the Blanchard's cricket frog by 33-94%. If these results reflect responses by other poikilotherms| climate change could induce major population declines in many species. Because poikilotherms represent the vast majority of vertebrates and significant ecosystem components| it is imperative that we implement strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and circumvent this possible catastrophe. 11494,2010,2,4,Future high-mountain hydrology: a new parameterization of\\ glacier retreat,Global warming is expected to significantly affect the runoff regime of mountainous catchments. Simple methods for calculating future glacier change in hydrological models are required in order to reliably assess economic impacts of changes in the water cycle over the next decades. Models for temporal and spatial glacier evolution need to describe the climate forcing acting on the glacier| and ice flow dynamics. Flow models| however| demand considerable computational resources and field data input and are moreover not applicable on the regional scale. Here| we propose a simple parameterization for calculating the change in glacier surface elevation and area| which is mass conserving and suited for hydrological modelling. The Delta h-parameterization is an empirical glacier-specific function derived from observations in the past that can easily be applied to large samples of glaciers. We compare the Delta h-parameterization to results of a 3-D finite-element ice flow model. As case studies| the evolution of two Alpine glaciers of different size over the period 2008-2100 is investigated using regional climate scenarios. The parameterization closely reproduces the distributed ice thickness change| as well as glacier area and length predicted by the ice flow model. This indicates that for the purpose of transient runoff forecasts| future glacier geometry change can be approximated using a simple parameterization instead of complex ice flow modelling. Furthermore| we analyse alpine glacier response to 21st century climate change and consequent shifts in the runoff regime of a highly glacierized catchment using the proposed methods. 10481,2010,2,2,Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change,Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis| which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity. 10887,2010,3,3,Gas emission into the atmosphere from controlled landfills: an example from Legoli landfill (Tuscany| Italy),Landfill gas (LFG) tends to escape from the landfill surface even when LFG collecting systems are installed. Since LFG leaks are generally a noticeable percentage of the total production of LFG| the optimisation of the collection system is a fundamental step for both energy recovery and environmental impact mitigation. In this work| we suggest to take into account the results of direct measurements of gas fluxes at the air-cover interface to achieve this goal. During the last 5 years (2004-2009)| 11 soil gas emission surveys have been carried out at the Municipal Solid Waste landfill of Legoli (Peccioli municipality| Pisa Province| Italy) by means of the accumulation chamber method. Direct and simultaneous measurements of CH(4) and CO(2) fluxes from the landfill cover (about 140|000 m(2)) have been performed to estimate the total output of both gases discharged into the atmosphere. Three different data processing have been applied and compared: Arithmetic mean of raw data (AMRD)| sequential Gaussian conditional simulations (SGCS) and turning bands conditional simulations (TBCS). The total amount of LFG (captured and not captured) obtained from processing of direct measurements has been compared with the corresponding outcomes of three different numerical models (LandGEM| IPCC waste model and GasSim). Measured fluxes vary from undetectable values (< 0.05 mol m(-2) day(-1) for CH(4) and < 0.02 mol m(-2) day(-1) for CO(2)) to 246 mol m(-2) day(-1) for CH(4) and 275 mol m(-2) day(-1) for CO(2). The specific CH(4) and CO(2) fluxes (flux per surface unit) vary from 1.8 to 7.9 mol m(-2) day(-1) and from 2.4 to 7.8 mol m(-2) day(-1)| respectively. The three different estimation methodologies (AMRD| SGCS and TBCS) used to evaluate the total output of diffused CO(2) and CH(4) fluxes from soil provide similar estimations| whereas there are some mismatches between these results and those of numerical LFG production models. Isoflux maps show a non-uniform spatial distribution| with high-flux zones not always corresponding with high-temperature areas shown by thermographic images. The average value estimated over the 5-year period for the Legoli landfill is 245 mol min(-1) for CH(4) and 379 mol min(-1) for CO(2)| whereas the volume percentage of CH(4) in the total gas discharged into the atmosphere varies from 29% to 51%| with a mean value of 39%. The estimated yearly emissions from the landfill cover is about 1.29 x 10(8) mol annum(-1) (2|100 t year(-1)) of CH(4) and 1.99 x 10(8) mol annum(-1) (8|800 t year(-1)) of CO(2). Considering that the CH(4) global warming potential is 63 times greater than that of CO(2) (20 a time horizon| Lashof and Ahuja 1990)| the emission of methane corresponds to 130|000 t annum(-1) of CO(2). The importance of these studies is to provide data for the worldwide inventory of CH(4) and CO(2) emissions from landfills| with the ultimate aim of determining the contribution of waste disposal to global warming. This kind of studies could be extended to other gas species| like the volatile organic compounds. 11266,2010,3,4,Gaseous Nitrogen and Carbon Emissions from a Full-Scale Deammonification Plant,The aim of this work was to give a quantitative description of the gaseous nitrogen and carbon emissions of a full-scale deammonification plant (DEMON system). Deammonification accounted for the net carbon sequestration of 0.16 g CO(2)/g NO(2)-N. Both nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and nitric oxide (NO) were minor trace gases (<0.1% nitrogen output). However| in comparison| the nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emission (1.3% nitrogen output) was significant. The global warming potential of the N(2)O emissions from the DEMON were similar to those found in conventional simultaneous nitrification/denitrification systems; however| CO(2) emissions in the investigated system were significantly lower| thereby lessening the overall environmental effect. This was the first time such an analysis has been performed on a DEMON system. Water Environ. Res.| 82| 169 (2010). 10918,2010,2,4,Generalizing a nonlinear geophysical flood theory to medium-sized river networks,The central hypothesis of a nonlinear geophysical flood theory postulates that| given space-time rainfall intensity for a rainfall-runoff event| solutions of coupled mass and momentum conservation differential equations governing runoff generation and transport in a self-similar river network produce spatial scaling| or a power law| relation between peak discharge and drainage area in the limit of large area. The excellent fit of a power law for the destructive flood event of June 2008 in the 32|400-km(2) Iowa River basin over four orders of magnitude variation in drainage areas supports the central hypothesis. The challenge of predicting observed scaling exponent and intercept from physical processes is explained. We show scaling in mean annual peak discharges| and briefly discuss that it is physically connected with scaling in multiple rainfall-runoff events. Scaling in peak discharges would hold in a non-stationary climate due to global warming but its slope and intercept would change. Citation: Gupta| V. K.| R. Mantilla| B. M. Troutman| D. Dawdy| and W. F. Krajewski (2010)| Generalizing a nonlinear geophysical flood theory to medium-sized river networks| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L11402| doi: 10.1029/2009GL041540. 11125,2010,3,3,Generation of Bioenergy by the Aerobic Fermentation of Domestic Wastewater,This research article demonstrates the development of microbial fuel cells (MFCs) for the generation of electrical energy by the aerobic fermentation of domestic wastewater (DWW) using the yeast as a culture of microorganisms. The power output of different configurations of MFCs using distilled water (DW)| domestic wastewater (DWW) and fermented domestic wastewater (FDWW) was determined. The power output of FDWW was found to be greater than that of DWW and DW which showed that the fermentation of the organic matter present in a wastewater is the major cause of the generation of electrical energy. The highest power output (0.82 mW) was observed by the parallel combination of two units of double chamber open system MFC (DCOS-MFC). The main objective and scope of this research article is to investigate the environmental friendly alternatives of the production of energy which can overcome the global energy crisis| global pollution and global warming which are currently caused by the extensive use of fuels. 11172,2010,5,3,Geochemistry of oceanic anoxic events,Oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) record profound changes in the climatic and paleoceanographic state of the planet and represent major disturbances in the global carbon cycle. OAEs that manifestly caused major chemical change in the Mesozoic Ocean include those of the early Toarcian (Posidonienschiefer event| T-OAE| similar to 183 Ma)| early Aptian (Selli event| OAE 1a| similar to 120 Ma)| early Albian (Paquier event| OAE 1b| similar to 111 Ma)| and Cenomanian-Turonian (Bonarelli event| C/T OAE| OAE 2| similar to 93 Ma). Currently available data suggest that the major forcing function behind OAEs was an abrupt rise in temperature| induced by rapid influx of CO(2) into the atmosphere from volcanogenic and/or methanogenic sources. Global warming was accompanied by an accelerated hydrological cycle| increased continental weathering| enhanced nutrient discharge to oceans and lakes| intensified upwelling| and an increase in organic productivity. An increase in continental weathering is typically recorded by transient increases in the seawater values of (87)Sr/(86)Sr and (187)Os/(188)Os ratios acting against| in the case of the Cenomanian-Turonian and early Aptian OAEs| a longer-term trend to less radiogenic values. This latter trend indicates that hydrothermally and volcanically sourced nutrients may also have stimulated local increases in organic productivity. Increased flux of organic matter favored intense oxygen demand in the water column| as well as increased rates of marine and lacustrine carbon burial. Particularly in those restricted oceans and seaways where density stratification was favored by paleogeography and significant fluvial input| conditions could readily evolve from poorly oxygenated to anoxic and ultimately euxinic (i.e.| sulfidic)| this latter state being geochemically the most significant. The progressive evolution in redox conditions through phases of denitrification/anammox| through to sulfate reduction accompanied by water column precipitation of pyrite framboids| resulted in fractionation of many isotope systems (e.g.| N| S| Fe| Mo| and U) and mobilization and incorporation of certain trace elements into carbonates (Mn)| sulfides| and organic matter. Sequestration of CO(2) in organic-rich black shales and by reaction with silicate rocks exposed on continents would ultimately restore climatic equilibrium but at the expense of massive chemical change in the oceans and over time scales of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. 718,2010,2,4,GEODETIC STUDIES OF THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE BLACK SEA LEVEL TREND,In this paper the problem for establishing the Black sea level trend related to the global climate change is discussed. It is well known that the mean sea level is a close approximation of the geopotential surface geoid (vertical datum)| which is the true zero surface for measuring physical elevations. Definition characteristics of geoid surface are considered in two aspects (geometrical and gravimetric model) in accordance with the high accuracy and temporal-spatial resolution of modern geodetic measuring techniques. The possibility of 'absolute' sea level change determination using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations collocated to the tide gauges| precise levelling and gravimetric measurements of geodetic points to connect independent geodetic systems to a one world reference system are considered. The geodetic measurements in the Black sea region will contribute to the complex studies of the World Ocean and open seas| and to find out the correlations between trend estimates obtained from different type of data. Long-term sea level changes are statistically significant and it is a matter of future more precise determination of their values. For that purpose it is needed a comprehensive| interdisciplinary research in terms of incorporating ancillary data types and various geophysical models as well. 10852,2010,4,2,Geoengineering as an optimization problem,There is increasing evidence that Earth's climate is currently warming| primarily due to emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities| and Earth has been projected to continue warming throughout this century. Scientists have begun to investigate the potential for geoengineering options for reducing surface temperatures and whether such options could possibly contribute to environmental risk reduction. One proposed method involves deliberately increasing aerosol loading in the stratosphere to scatter additional sunlight to space. Previous modeling studies have attempted to predict the climate consequences of hypothetical aerosol additions to the stratosphere. These studies have shown that this method could potentially reduce surface temperatures| but could not recreate a low-CO(2) climate in a high-CO(2) world. In this study| we attempt to determine the latitudinal distribution of stratospheric aerosols that would most closely achieve a low-CO(2) climate despite high CO(2) levels. Using the NCAR CAM3.1 general circulation model| we find that having a stratospheric aerosol loading in polar regions higher than that in tropical regions leads to a temperature distribution that is more similar to the low-CO(2) climate than that yielded by a globally uniform loading. However| such polar weighting of stratospheric sulfate tends to degrade the degree to which the hydrological cycle is restored| and thus does not markedly contribute to improved recovery of a low-CO(2) climate. In the model| the optimal latitudinally varying aerosol distributions diminished the rms zonal mean land temperature change from a doubling of CO(2) by 94% and the rms zonal mean land precipitation minus evaporation change by 74%. It is important to note that this idealized study represents a first attempt at optimizing the engineering of climate using a general circulation model; uncertainties are high and not all processes that are important in reality are modeled. 10482,2010,3,2,Geoengineering potential of artificially enhanced silicate weathering of olivine,Geoengineering is a proposed action to manipulate Earth's climate in order to counteract global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We investigate the potential of a specific geoengineering technique| carbon sequestration by artificially enhanced silicate weathering via the dissolution of olivine. This approach would not only operate against rising temperatures but would also oppose ocean acidification| because it influences the global climate via the carbon cycle. If important details of the marine chemistry are taken into consideration| a new mass ratio of CO(2) sequestration per olivine dissolution of about 1 is achieved| 20% smaller than previously assumed. We calculate that this approach has the potential to sequestrate up to 1 Pg of C per year directly| if olivine is distributed as fine powder over land areas of the humid tropics| but this rate is limited by the saturation concentration of silicic acid. In our calculations for the Amazon and Congo river catchments| a maximum annual dissolution of 1.8 and 0.4 Pg of olivine seems possible| corresponding to the sequestration of 0.5 and 0.1 Pg of C per year| but these upper limit sequestration rates come at the environmental cost of pH values in the rivers rising to 8.2. Open water dissolution of fine-grained olivine and an enhancement of the biological pump by the rising riverine input of silicic acid might increase our estimate of the carbon sequestration| but additional research is needed here. We finally calculate with a carbon cycle model the consequences of sequestration rates of 1-5 Pg of C per year for the 21st century by this technique. 678,2010,2,4,Geographic variation in thermal plasticity of life history and wing pattern in Bicyclus anynana,Temperature is one of the main environmental cues regulating seasonal plasticity in insects. Global climate change may lead to a change in the predictive value of temperature for seasonal conditions| potentially resulting in a mismatch of phenotypic form and environment. The afrotropical butterfly Bicyclus anynana shows striking seasonal plasticity for wing patterns and life history traits. This polyphenism is an adaptation to contrasting patterns of rainfall over wet and dry seasons| and is mainly determined by temperature. To investigate the extent of local adaptation of the developmental plasticity response to regional climate| we compared the thermal reaction norms for several life history traits and wing pattern of 2 distant populations from regions with different temperature-rainfall associations. We found little to no population differentiation for the life history traits| while wing pattern showed substantially more geographic variation. Broad-sense heritabilities and cross-environment correlations for wing pattern and 2 life history traits indicated a potential for adaptation of the plasticity response of these traits. Our results indicate that thermal plasticity of wing pattern can be population-specific; thus climate change may lead to a mismatch of wing pattern to seasonal environment. Traits that can be further modified by acclimation during the butterfly's adult life span (starvation resistance| resting metabolic rate and egg size) showed no geographic differentiation for their developmental plasticity. This indicates that for these traits| adult acclimation plays an important role in coping with local climate. 11246,2010,4,4,GEOSENSING SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FOR OCEAN SECURITY AND SUSTAINABLE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT,Three major threats to ocean security and coastal zone sustainability - global warming| the loss of ocean biodiversity| and pollution - are combining to threaten the ecological integrity of our marine environment and life support systems. We put forward a geomatics-based systems engineering architecture to identify the location and extent of oil spills| thereby improving the ecological integrity of the world's oceans and helping contingency planners to determine required assets| personnel and other resources. This real-time| event-based and cost effective emergency management decision support system can aid in the classification| detection| and monitoring of oil spills in the marine environment. The developed Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR) processing and calibration techniques efficiently monitor environmental changes in inaccessible ocean regions| characterize oil spill scenarios| and help to identify spill sources. The system is used to improve emergency management in the Gulf of Mexico| with application to oil spills arising from Hurricane Katrina. 11099,2010,3,3,German central solar heating plants with seasonal heat storage,Central solar heating plants contribute to the reduction of CO(2)-emissions and global warming. The combination of central solar heating plants with seasonal heat storage enables high solar fractions of 50% and more. Several pilot central solar heating plants with seasonal heat storage (CSHPSS) built in Germany since 1996 have proven the appropriate operation of these systems and confirmed the high solar fractions. Four different types of seasonal thermal energy stores have been developed| tested and monitored under realistic operation conditions: Hot-water thermal energy store (e.g. in Friedrichshafen)| gravel-water thermal energy store (e.g. in Steinfurt-Borghorst)| borehole thermal energy store (in Neckarsulm) and aquifer thermal energy store (in Rostock). In this paper| measured heat balances of several German CSHPSS are presented. The different types of thermal energy stores and the affiliated central solar heating plants and district heating systems are described. Their operational characteristics are compared using measured data gained from an extensive monitoring program. Thus long-term operational experiences such as the influence of net return temperatures are shown. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10863,2010,3,3,Germany's dash for coal: Exploring drivers and factors,The German electricity sector has recently seen extensive planning and construction of new coal-fired power plants. Within a period of only a few years| new investments amounting to around 15% of the total sector capacity were brought on the way| and plans for a multitude of additional projects are pending. This 'dash for coal' in Germany has raised considerable public concern| especially as it risks to undermine recent political attempts to combat global warming. Yet| the question of why the dash for coal has emerged has not yet been addressed in a thorough analysis. This article attempts to close this research gap| while at the same time contributing as a case study to the general understanding of investment patterns in liberalized electricity markets. It finds that the main reasons for the dash have been (1) replacement requirements due to the nuclear phase out| (2) the onset of a new investment cycle in the power market| (3) favorable economic and technological prospects for coal compared with natural gas in the long run| (4) a status-quo bias of investors in regard to future renewable deployment| (5) explicit political support for coal| and (6) the ineffectiveness of public protest in hampering new projects. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11342,2010,2,4,GISELA - GIS-based evaluation of land use and agriculture market analysis under global warming,one of the important future issues is how agriculture production can meet the future demand increase due to the population and the income growth. Global warming would give both positive and negative impacts on them. Agriculture is often expected to supply biofuels to meet the growing transportation energy demand and the warming control policy. GISELA - GIS-based evaluation for land use and agriculture production model - is developed to evaluate the current and the potential cropland for rice| wheat| maize and soy-beans production under climate changes. We also assess the food and the feed demand based on the historical regional statistics for world into 18 regions. Finally| we assess the future food market integrating the above supply and demand conditions developing a dynamic optimization model| GISELA. Current GISELA findings are as follows: (1) potential cropland in south America will be extensively cultivated| (2) market price of wheat and soy will gradually go up while that of maize is almost stable in medium yield case| and (3) in the low-yield case| all crop prices hike rapidly in the mid of this century. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 401,2010,2,4,Glacial change in the vicinity of Mt. Qomolangma (Everest)| central high Himalayas since 1976,Glaciers are one of the most important land covers in alpine regions and especially sensitive to global climate change. Remote sensing has proved to be the best method of investigating the extent of glacial variations in remote mountainous areas. Using Landsat thematic mapping (TM) and multi-spectral-scanner (MSS) images from Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) National Nature Preserve (QNNP)| central high Himalayas for 1976| 1988 and 2006| we derived glacial extent for these three periods. A combination of object-oriented image interpretation methods| expert knowledge rules and field surveys were employed. Results showed that (1) the glacial area in 2006 was 2710.17 +/- 0.011 km(2) (about 7.41% of the whole study area)| and located mainly to the south and between 4700 m to 6800 m above sea level; (2) from 1976 to 2006| glaciers reduced by 501.91 +/- 0.035 km(2) and glacial lakes expanded by 36.88 +/- 0.035 km(2); the rate of glacier retreat was higher in sub-basins on the southern slopes (16.79%) of the Himalayas than on the northern slopes (14.40%); most glaciers retreated| and mainly occurred at an elevation of 4700-6400 m| and the estimated upper limit of the retreat zone is between 6600 m and 6700 m; (3) increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation over the study period are the key factors driving retreat. 10790,2010,2,4,Glacial populations and postglacial migration of Douglas-fir based on fossil pollen and macrofossil evidence,To understand how temperate forests might respond to future episodes of global warming| it is important to study the effects of large-scale climate change brought about by rapid postglacial warming. Compilations of fossil evidence have provided the best evidence of past plant range shifts| especially in eastern North America and Europe| and provide a context for interpreting new molecular datasets from modern forests. In western North America| however| such reviews have lagged even for common| widespread taxa. Here| we synthesize fossil evidence for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) from nearly 550 fossil pollen| sedimentary macrofossil| and packrat midden macrofossil sites to develop hypotheses about the species' late Quaternary history that can be tested with molecular phylogeographic studies. For both the coastal and interior varieties| we identified alternative hypotheses on the number of glacial populations and postglacial migration patterns that can be characterized as single-population versus multiple-population hypotheses. Coastal Douglas-fir may have been subdivided into two populations at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and colonized British Columbia from populations in Washington and Oregon. Interior Douglas-fir could have been subdivided along major topographic barriers into at least three LGM populations and colonized British Columbia and Alberta from populations in northwest Wyoming and/or northeast Utah. For both varieties| we calculated migration rates lower than previous studies| which could have been as high as 100-220 m/yr if Douglas-fir reached its modern distribution 9000 cal yr BP| or as low as 50 m/yr if it reached its modern range at present. The elevational range of populations in California and the southern Rockies shifted upslope by 700-1000 m. If there were multiple LGM populations| these elevational shifts suggest that those populations did not contribute to the colonization of Canada. Our findings emphasize the possibility of low-density northern LGM populations and that populations within species react individualistically in response to large-scale climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 698,2010,3,3,GLOBAL AND LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION EVALUATION AND CONTROL. CHALLENGES FOR A SMALL ISLAND AND FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES,The air pollution control and evaluation has acquired high importance in the modern world. Depending on the per-manence of the pollutants in the atmosphere| the pollution could be local| regional or global. The contribution of many developing countries| such as Cuba| to global climate change is very low. In these cases| while providing importance to reducing national emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG)| the priority actions would be addressed to adapting to climate change and to reducing emissions that determine local and regional pollution| which have adverse effects| especially on health. The present paper examines Cuba's contribution to global greenhouse gases emissions| which turns out to be modest. Then| the problem of local pollution in the nation is addressed| reporting data from experimental measurements and comparing them with national regulations. The methodology employed and the results obtained on the levels of pollution generated by the national energy sector and corresponding impacts on health and its costs are discussed. The work may provide support for decision makers on the priorities in the use of available resources| with the aim of environmental preservation. Some approaches about how to deal the right balance of local and global responsibilities for countries as Cuba| are also presented. As the development of those countries proceeds| their contribution to GHG emissions is expected to become more relevant. Some planned countermeasures for reducing such a trend are illustrated. 10433,2010,4,4,Global change and food webs in running waters,Riverine habitats are vulnerable to a host of environmental stressors| many of which are increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe. Climate change is arguably the greatest threat on the horizon| with serious implications for freshwater food webs via alterations in thermal regimes| resource quality and availability| and hydrology. This will induce radical restructuring of many food webs| by altering the identity of nodes| the strength and patterning of interactions and consequently the dynamics and architecture of the trophic network as a whole. Although such effects are likely to be apparent globally| they are predicted to be especially rapid and dramatic in high altitude and latitude ecosystems| which represent 'sentinel systems'. The complex and subtle connections between members of a food web and potential synergistic interactions with other environmental stressors can lead to seemingly counterintuitive responses to perturbations that cannot be predicted from the traditional focus of studying individual species in isolation. In this review| we highlight the need for developing new network-based approaches to understand and predict the consequences of global change in running waters. 362,2010,2,4,Global changes in pampean lowland streams (Argentina): implications for biodiversity and functioning,The rivers and streams in the pampean plains are characterized by a low flow rate due to the low slope of the surrounding terrain| high levels of suspended solids| silty sediment in the benthos| and reduced rithron; the riparian forest of this region has been replaced by low-altitude grasslands. Many of these environments contain a wide coverage of aquatic reeds| both submerged and floating| making the pampas limologically extraordinary. These terrains have undergone a gradual transformation in response to the progress of urbanization and agricultural activity in recent years with a resulting loss of biodiversity| leaving only few sites that continue to reflect the original characteristics of the region. Because of human activities in combination with the global climate change| variations have occurred in biological communities that are reflected in the structure and function of populations and assemblages of algae| macrophytes| and invertebrate fauna or in the eutrophication of affected ecosystems. The objective of this article is to describe the principal limnologic characteristics of the streams that traverse the Buenos Aires Province and relate these features with the predicted future global changes for the area under study. Considering the future climate-change scenarios proposed for the pampean region| the projected increment in rainfall will affect the biological communities. Higher rainfall may enhance the erosion and generate floodings; increasing the transport of sediments| nutrients| and contaminants to the ocean and affecting the degree of water mineralization. Changes in discharge and turbidity may affect light penetration in the water column as well as its residence time. The modifications in the use of the soil will probably favor the input of nutrients. This latter effect will favor autotrophy| particularly by those species capable of generating strategies for surviving in more turbid and enriched environments. An accelerated eutrophication will change the composition of the consumers in preference to herbivores and detritivores. The increase in global population projected for the next years will demand more food| and this situation coupled with the new scenarios of climate change will lead to profound socioeconomic changes in the pampean area| implying an increase in demand for water resources and land uses. 481,2010,2,4,Global climate change amplifies the entry of tropical species into the Eastern Mediterranean Sea,Using long-term data of 149 warm alien species since 1924| we show that the introduction of warm and tropical alien species has been exacerbated by the observed warming of the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The phenomenon has accelerated after an abrupt shift in both regional and global temperatures that we detect around 1998| leading to a 150% increase in the annual mean rate of species entry after this date. Abrupt rising temperature since the end of the 1990s has modified the potential thermal habitat available for warm-water species| facilitating their settlement at an unexpectedly rapid rate. The speed of alien species spreading and response to global warming is apparently much faster than temperature increase itself| presenting an important warning for the future of Mediterranean Sea biodiversity. In addition to the sea warming| other factors that enable and enhance biological invasions| such as salinity increase and oceanographic forcing| are also discussed. 365,2010,2,4,Global climate change and carbon balance in forest ecosystems of boreal zones: Simulation modeling as a forecast tool,The individual-based system of models EFIMOD simulating carbon and nitrogen flows in forest ecosystems has been used for forecasting the response of forest ecosystems to various forest management regimes with climate change. As input data the forest inventory data for the Manturovskii forestry of the Kostroma region were used. It has been shown that increase of mid-annual temperatures and precipitation influence the redistribution of carbon and nitrogen supply in organic form: supply increase of these elements in phytomass simultaneously with depletion of them in soil occurred. The most carbon and nitrogen accumulation in forest ecosystems occurs in the scenario without felling. In addition| in this scenario only the ecosystems of the modeling territory function as a carbon sink; in the other two scenarios (with selective and clear cutting) they function as a source of carbon. Climate changes greatly influence the decomposition rate of organic matter in soil| which leads to increased emission of carbon dioxide. The second consequence of the increase in the destruction rate is nitrogen increase in the soil in a form available for plants that entails productivity increase of stands. 675,2010,2,4,Global Climate Change and Implications for Disease Emergence,The early consequences of global climate change (GCC) are well documented. However| future impacts on ecosystem health| and on the health of humans| domestic animals| and wildlife| are much less well understood. Evidence of increasing frequency of extreme weather events (the 2003 trans-European heat wave| extended droughts in Australia and South America)| of geographic changes in vector-borne disease (bluetongue and hanta. viruses emerging in northern Europe| dengue virus expanding in central and northern America)| and of altered animal behavioral responses (changes in bird migration patterns and fishery numbers) warrants action. To make valid choices| however| practitioners and decision makers must understand what is known about GCC and what is only theory. There will be a multitude of microbial| vector| and host responses to climate change| for example| and not all organisms will respond similarly or across equal time scales. Unfortunately| for many organisms and ecosystems the scientific community has a relatively poor understanding of current effectors and balances| making it problematic to describe the current situation| let alone to validate future predictions. The need for enhanced basic research and systematic surveillance programs is obvious| but putting such programs into place is daunting. However| the threats are real and fast approaching. What is done in the next few years may be decisive| whether for the good or the ill of all. 565,2010,5,4,Global climate change and planktic foraminiferal response in the Maastrichtian,The lengthy warm| stable climate of the Cretaceous terminated in the Campanian with a cooling trend| interrupted in the early and latest Maastrichtian by two events of global warming| at similar to 70-68 Ma and at 65.78-65.57 Ma. These climatic oscillations had a profound effect on pelagic ecosystems| especially on planktic foraminiferal populations. Here we compare biotic responses in the tropical-subtropical (Tethyan) open ocean and mesotrophic (Zin Valley| Israel) and oligotrophic (Tunisia) slopes| which correlate directly with global warming and cooling. The two warming events coincide with blooms of Guembelitria| an extreme opportunist genus best known as the main survivor of the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) catastrophe. In the Maastrichtian| Guembelitria bloomed in the uppermost surface water above shelf and slope environments but failed to reach the open ocean as it did at K-Pg. The coldest interval of the late Maastrichtian (similar to 68-65.78 Ma) is marked by an acme of the otherwise rare species Gansserina gansseri| a deep-dwelling keeled globotruncanid. The G. gansseri acme event can be traced from the deep ocean even onto the Tethyan slope| marking copious production and circulation of cold intermediate water. This acme is abruptly terminated by extinction of the species| a dramatic reversal attributed to a short-term global warming episode. This extinction corresponds precisely with the second bloom of Guembelitria that began similar to 300 kyr prior to the K-Pg event. The antithetical relationship between blooming of Guembelitria and the G. gansseri acme reflects planktic foraminiferal sensitivity to warm-cool-warm-cool climatic oscillations marking the end of the Cretaceous. 11221,2010,2,4,Global Implications of the Recent Emergence of Bluetongue Virus in Europe,The recent emergence of bluetongue virus (BTV) infection has attracted much interest because of the potential role of climate change and increased ambient temperature in causing the drastic recent alteration in the global distribution of this virus. Although there have been repeated assertions that climate change will alter the distribution of arboviruses and their vectors| specific examples are lacking in which the role of global warming alone has been unambiguously defined in the spread of such infections. This article summarizes recent events in Europe and the current status of BTV in the Americas and elsewhere in the context of potential global emergence of the BTV infection and disease of ruminants. 11093,2010,2,4,Global long-lived chemical modes excited in a 3-D chemistry transport model: Stratospheric N(2)O| NO(y)| O(3) and CH(4) chemistry,The two longest-lived| major chemical response patterns (eigenmodes) of the atmosphere| coupling N(2)O and CH(4)| are identified with the UCI chemistry-transport model using a linearized (N(2)O| NO(y)| O(3)| CH(4)| H(2)O)-system for stratospheric chemistry and specified tropospheric losses. As in previous 1D and 2D studies| these century-long 3D simulations show that the e-folding decay time of a N(2)O perturbation (mode-1: 108.4 y) caused by a pulse emission of N(2)O is 10-years shorter than the N(2)O atmospheric lifetime (118.2 y). This mode-1 can also be excited by CH(4) emissions due to CH(4)-O(3) stratospheric chemistry: a pulse emission of 100 Tg CH(4) creates a +0.1 Tg N(2)O perturbation in mode-1 with a 108-yr e-folding decay time| thus increasing the CH(4) global warming potential by 1.2%. Almost all of the 100 Tg CH(4) appears in mode-2 (10.1 y). Citation: Hsu| J.| and M. J. Prather (2010)| Global long-lived chemical modes excited in a 3-D chemistry transport model: Stratospheric N(2)O| NO(y)| O(3) and CH(4) chemistry| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L07805| doi: 10.1029/2009GL042243. 10585,2010,2,4,Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming,Documented shifts in geographical ranges(1|2)| seasonal phenology(3|4)| community interactions(5)| genetics(3|6) and extinctions(7) have been attributed to recent global warming(8-10). Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid-to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere(4|9|10)-a latitudinal pattern that is expected(4|8|10|11) because warming is fastest in these regions(8). In contrast| shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked(4|8|10|11) because warming is less pronounced there(8). However| biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology| and metabolic rate| which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact| increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms(12). Therefore| tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest| but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large| are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions| and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic| even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism| tropical organisms| which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity| should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming(2|13|14). 10778,2010,3,3,Global observation of EKC hypothesis for CO(2)| SO(x) and NO(x) emission: A policy understanding for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh,Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is critical to understanding the developmental path of a nation in relation to its environment. How the effects of economic development processes dictate environmental changes can be found through the study of EKC. To understand the EKC phenomena for climate change| this study was undertaken by reviewing the available literature. As CO(2)| SO(x) and NO(x) are the significant greenhouse gases (GHG) responsible for global warming| thus leading to climate change| the study focused on those GHGs for EKC consideration. With an understanding of the different EKC trajectories| an attempt was made to determine the implications for the economic development of Bangladesh in regards to the EKC. It was shown that EKC for CO(2) was following a monotonous straight line in most cases. SO(x) were shown to follow the full trajectory of the EKC in most situations and NO(x) was shown the hope only for the developed countries getting the low-income turning point. The type of economic policy that Bangladesh should follow in regards to the discussed pollutants and sources is also revealed. From these discussions| contributions to policy stimulation in Bangladesh are likely to be made. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11154,2010,5,3,Global patterns in leaf (13)C discrimination and implications for studies of past and future climate,Fractionation of carbon isotopes by plants during CO(2) uptake and fixation (Delta(leaf)) varies with environmental conditions| but quantitative patterns of Delta(leaf) across environmental gradients at the global scale are lacking. This impedes interpretation of variability in ancient terrestrial organic matter| which encodes climatic and ecological signals. To address this problem| we converted 3|310 published leaf Alpha values into mean Delta(leaf) values for 334 woody plant species at 105 locations (yielding 570 species-site combinations) representing a wide range of environmental conditions. Our analyses reveal a strong positive correlation between Delta(leaf) and mean annual precipitation (MAP; R(2) = 0.55)| mirroring global trends in gross primary production and indicating stomatal constraints on leaf gas-exchange| mediated by water supply| are the dominant control of Delta(leaf) at large spatial scales. Independent of MAP| we show a lesser| negative effect of altitude on Delta(leaf) and minor effects of temperature and latitude. After accounting for these factors| mean Delta(leaf) of evergreen gymnosperms is lower (by 1-2.7%) than for other woody plant functional types (PFT)| likely due to greater leaf-level water-use efficiency. Together| environmental and PFT effects contribute to differences in mean Delta(leaf) of up to 6% between biomes. Coupling geologic indicators of ancient precipitation and PFT (or biome) with modern Delta(leaf) patterns has potential to yield more robust reconstructions of atmospheric delta(13)C values| leading to better constraints on past greenhouse-gas perturbations. Accordingly| we estimate a 4.6% decline in the delta(13)C of atmospheric CO2 at the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum| an abrupt global warming event similar to 55.8 Ma. 11327,2010,2,4,Global perspective on hydrology| water balance| and water resources management in arid basins,Arid and semiarid regions comprise a large part of the world's terrestrial area and are home to hundreds of millions of people. Water resources in arid regions are rare and critical to society and to ecosystems. The hydrologic cycle in arid and semiarid regions has been greatly altered due to long-term human exploitation. Under conditions of global warming| water resources in these regions are expected to be more unstable and ecosystems likely will suffer from severe water stress. In the current special issue contributed to understanding ecohydrologic processes and water-related problems in arid regions of western China| this paper provides a global perspective on the hydrology and water balance of six major arid basins of the world. A number of global datasets| including the state-of-the-art ensemble simulation of land surface models by GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project II| a project by GEWEX)| were used to address the water balance terms in the world's major hydroclimatic regions. The common characteristics of hydrologic cycles and water balance in arid basins are as follows: strong evapotranspiration characterizes the hydrological cycle in arid basins; and in water use sectors irrigation consumes a large amount of water| resulting in degradation of native vegetation. From the ecohydrology viewpoint| a comprehensive study of hydrological and ecological processes of water utilization in arid basins is urgently needed. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 10866,2010,3,3,Global solar radiation: Multiple on-site assessments in Abu Dhabi| UAE,Renewable energy technology and in particular solar energy is being considered worldwide due to the fluctuations in oil prices| global warming and the growing demand for energy supply. This paper investigates the climate conditions available in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in particular Abu Dhabi to implement Photovoltaic (PV) technology. Measured solar radiation was analyzed for five different geographical locations to ensure the suitability of this region. Hourly| daily and monthly global horizontal irradiation (GHI) were collected and processed. Statistical methods were used to evaluate the computed GHI and showed high values especially during the summer period. Moreover| clearness index was calculated to investigate the frequency of cloudy sky days and results have shown a high percentage of clear days during the year. This paper highlights a promising future for Abu Dhabi in the solar energy sector and in particular Photovoltaic (PV) technology. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11064,2010,2,4,Global warming affects phenology and voltinism of Lobesia botrana in Spain,Climate change is promoting alterations of a very diverse nature in the life cycle of an array of insect species| including changes in phenology and voltinism. In Spain| there is observational evidence that the moth Lobesia botrana Den. & Schiff. (Lep.: Tortricidae)| a key vine pest that is usually trivoltine in Mediterranean latitudes| tends to advance spring emergence| displaying a partial fourth additional flight| a fact that is potentially attributable to global warming. To verify this hypothesis| local temperatures were correlated with L. botrana phenology in six vine-growing areas of southwestern Spain during the last two decades (1984-2006) by exploiting the database of flight curves obtained with sexual pheromone traps. The dates of second and third flight peaks of the moth were calculated for each area and year and then correlated with both time (years) and local temperatures. The results obtained demonstrated a noteworthy trend towards local warming (as a result of global warming) in the last two decades| with mean increases in annual and spring temperatures of 0.9 and 3.0 degrees C| respectively. Therefore| L. botrana phenology has significantly advanced by more than 12 days. Moreover| the phenological advance contributed to increased moth voltinism in 2006 by promoting a complete fourth additional flight| a fact that has never been reported previously to our knowledge in the Iberian Peninsula. The potential impact of an earlier phenology and increased voltinism in L. botrana is discussed from an agro-ecological perspective. 11483,2010,2,4,Global warming and Bergmann's rule: do central European passerines adjust their body size to rising temperatures?,Recent climate change has caused diverse ecological responses in plants and animals. However| relatively little is known about homeothermic animals' ability to adapt to changing temperature regimes through changes in body size| in accordance with Bergmann's rule. We used fluctuations in mean annual temperatures in south-west Germany since 1972 in order to look for direct links between temperature and two aspects of body size: body mass and flight feather length. Data from regionally born juveniles of 12 passerine bird species were analysed. Body mass and feather length varied significantly among years in eight and nine species| respectively. Typically the inter-annual changes in morphology were complexly non-linear| as was inter-annual variation in temperature. For six (body mass) and seven species (feather length)| these inter-annual fluctuations were significantly correlated with temperature fluctuations. However| negative correlations consistent with Bergmann's rule were only found for five species| either for body mass or feather length. In several of the species for which body mass and feather length was significantly associated with temperature| morphological responses were better predicted by temperature data that were smoothed across multiple years than by the actual mean breeding season temperatures of the year of birth. This was found in five species for body mass and three species for feather length. These results suggest that changes in body size may not merely be the result of phenotypic plasticity but may hint at genetically based microevolutionary adaptations. 11166,2010,2,2,Global warming and the Arctic: a new world beyond the reach of the Grinnellian niche?,The levels of CO(2) in the atmosphere have already far exceeded values attained at any other time over at least the past 650|000 years. Temperature increases due to rising greenhouse gases will be amplified in Arctic and subarctic regions| and winter warming will be enhanced relative to summer warming. Climate in large areas of high latitudes may have no analogue in current climates or those of the recent geological past. Experimental field manipulations and laboratory studies indicate that plants will exhibit complex responses in photosynthesis| growth rates| phenology and reproductive functioning due to this combination of increasing temperatures| changing seasonality and increasing levels of CO(2). The resulting changes in the abundance| distribution| growth rates and production of fruit and phenology of plant species will in turn impact animal populations. In predicting what the future biota of the 'New Arctic' will be like and developing appropriate conservation strategies| Grinnellian niche-based approaches are likely to be insufficient| and experimental ecological studies of organism response to specific anticipated changes in climate are crucial. 10718,2010,3,4,Global warming contributions from wheat| sheep meat and wool production in Victoria| Australia - a life cycle assessment,This paper compares the life cycle global warming potential of three of Australia's important agricultural production activities - the production of wheat| meat and wool in grazed subterranean clover (sub-clover) dominant pasture and mixed pasture (perennial ryegrass/phalaris/sub-clover/grass and cape weed) systems. Two major stages are presented in this life cycle assessment (LCA) analysis: pre-farm| and on-farm. The pre-farm stage includes greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural machinery| fertilizer| and pesticide production and the emissions from the transportation of these inputs to paddock. The on-farm stage includes GHG emissions due to diesel use in on-farm transport and processing (e.g. seeding| spraying| harvesting| topdressing| sheep shearing)| and non-CO(2) (nitrous oxide (N(2)O)| and methane (CH(4))) emissions from pastures and crop grazing of lambs. The functional unit of this life cycle analysis is the GHG emissions (carbon dioxide equivalents - CO(2) -e) from 1 kg of wheat| sheep meat and wool produced from sub-clover| wheat and mixed pasture plots. The GHG emissions (e.g. CO(2)| N(2)O and CH(4) emission) from the production| transportation and use of inputs (e.g. fertilizer| pesticide| farm machinery operation) during pre-farm and on-farm stages are also included. The life cycle GHG emissions of 1 kg of wool is significantly higher than that of wheat and sheep meat. The LCA analysis identified that the on-farm stage contributed the most significant portion of total GHG emissions from the production of wheat| sheep meat and wool. This LCA analysis also identified that CH(4) emissions from enteric methane production and from the decomposition of manure accounted for a significant portion of the total emissions from sub-clover and mixed pasture production| whilst N(2)O emissions from the soil have been found to be the major source of GHG emissions from wheat production. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11201,2010,3,2,Global Warming Energy| Environmental Pollution| and the Impact of Power Electronics,Global energy consumption is dramatically increasing due to our quest for a higher standard of living and the increasing world population. Most of our energy comes from fossil fuels| and burning these fuels causes environmental problems| and in particular| the global warming problem. Global warming raises the sea level; brings drought in tropical regions near the equator; increases hurricanes| tornadoes| and floods; and causes the spread of diseases. The consequences are serious and have the potential to bring tremendous unrest in the world. Various measures to solve or mitigate the global warming problem have been outlined in this article. This article particularly highlights the impact of power electronics in solving this problem. Power electronics will play a very important role in clean energy generation| bulk storage of electricity| and efficient energy utilization| and eventually| it will be a key element in the energy policies of nations. It has been estimated that the widespread energy efficiency improvement by power electronics and other methods with the existing technologies can save 20% of the global energy demand| and another 20% can be saved by preventing waste| i.e.| by various conservation methods. Finally| the global warming problem is solvable by the united effort of humanity.
10393,2010,2,4,Global warming has been affecting some morphological characters of Pistachio trees (Pistacia vera L.),Climate changes have already affected species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. The data| on which this research is based on| were collected and studied in Kerman province. The meteorology data were on four months (December| January| February and March) from 1991 until 2008 and the phenology data were on six pistachio cultivars that were ranked in three groups: early flowering| mid flowering and late flowering collected during the summers in the following years: 1997| from 2001 until 2005 and 2007. The evaluated factors included leaf area| normal and abnormal leaves. The results showed the mean temperature in March has significantly increased during the monitored period and that fluctuations between the years have increased since 1999| in December| January and February. The abnormality of the leaves in early and late flowering cultivars had the negative correlation with the mean temperature measured in December during the monitored period of time and that the mid flowering cultivars had the positive correlation with the mean temperature measured in February during that same period of time. The changes of leaf area on Ahamadaghaei cultivar were less than in other cultivars but Kallehghoochi and Akbari had the highest range which can probably be used as a good marker for determining effects of temperature changes in winter on the production level. 11332,2010,2,3,Global warming impact on the dominant precipitation processes in the Middle East,In this study| the ability of a regional climate model| based on MM5| to simulate the climate of the Middle East at the beginning of the twenty-first century is assessed. The model is then used to simulate the changes due to global warming over the twenty-first century. The regional climate model displays a negative bias in temperature throughout the year and over most of the domain. It does a good job of simulating the precipitation for most of the domain| though it performs relatively poorly over the southeast Black Sea and southwest Caspian Sea. Using boundary conditions obtained from CCSM3| the model was run for the first and last 5 years of the twenty-first century. The results show widespread warming| with a maximum of similar to 10 K in interior Iran during summer. It also found some cooling in the southeast Black Sea region during spring and summer that is related to increases in snowfall in the region| a longer snowmelt season| and generally higher soil moisture and latent heating through the summer. The results also show widespread decreases in precipitation over the eastern Mediterranean and Turkey. Precipitation increases were found over the southeast Black Sea| southwest Caspian Sea| and Zagros mountain regions during all seasons except summer| while the Saudi desert region receives increases during summer and autumn. Changes in the dominant precipitation-triggering mechanisms were also investigated. The general trend in the dominant mechanism reflects a change away from the direct dependence on storm tracks and towards greater precipitation triggering by upslope flow of moist air masses. The increase in precipitation in the Saudi desert region is triggered by changes in atmospheric stability brought about by the intrusion of the intertropical convergence zone into the southernmost portion of the domain. 10557,2010,2,4,Global warming impacts and conservation responses for the critically endangered European Atlantic sturgeon,Due to anthropogenic actions| species have become endangered or have been driven to the verge of extinction| requiring conservation plans to be developed and implemented. These plans include measures to protect and enhance remaining populations and to reintroduce populations within the native ranges. However| future habitat suitability in the face of climate change is rarely assessed| despite the fact that it could compromise conservation opportunities. It is attempted to carry this task out for the critically endangered European Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser sturio). Species presence/absence was documented for 196 basins between 1750 and 1850 over the Western Palearctic. A predictive distribution model was established from this database using Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and a pool of relevant environmental variables. Projections were performed at two time-steps| 2050 and 2100| using the HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) and the A2 and A1FI emissions scenarios. The BRT model incorporated two general climatic descriptors| summer precipitation and annual air temperature| average slope served as a topographic predictor| and marine provinces as a macroecological variable. The statistical model performance allowed projections with the predictive deviance being 29 +/- 2.80 and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) being 0.86 +/- 0.02. The results obtained are in accordance with the species thermal preferences and with its hydrological habitat requirements. Most of the former sturgeon distribution range was assessed as being strongly affected by climate change| especially basins along the southern limit of its range. On this basis| proposals to integrate the climate change dimension into conservation strategy are discussed. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11370,2010,2,4,Global warming induces female cuttings of Populus cathayana to allocate more biomass| C and N to aboveground organs than do male cuttings,We investigated differences between the sexes of a dioecious species| Populus cathayana Rehd| in biomass accumulation| biomass allocation| and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) concentrations under elevated temperature treatments. Cuttings were subjected to three temperature regimes (control| +2 degrees C and +4 degrees C| respectively) in closed-top chambers. Compared with the control treatment| warming significantly increased the net photosynthesis rate| height growth| leaf dry mass| stem dry mass (SM)| root dry mass (RM) and total dry mass (TM)| and resulted in a higher aboveground : belowground dry mass ratio (AB) in all individuals of both sexes| except in males under the +2 degrees C warming treatment. Furthermore| warming decreased the concentration of C in the stems in both sexes| and increased the concentration of N in the leaves of females| and consequently| resulted in a lower C : N ratio in the leaves of female cuttings than in those of male cuttings. Also| further differences between males and females were detected. In the warming treatments| females exhibited significantly higher values of SM| RM| TM and AB| and lower RM : TM and RM : foliage area ratios than did the males. However| no significant differences in these traits between the two sexes were detected under ambient temperature. Our results indicated that allocation of biomass| and the concentrations of C and N in males and females are greatly affected by an elevated temperature| and that warming benefits females| which accumulate and allocate more biomass to aboveground organs than do the males. 10901,2010,3,3,Global warming mitigation by sulphur loading in the stratosphere: dependence of required emissions on allowable residual warming rate,An approach to mitigate global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied| employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM. The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenic greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860-2100 with additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the twenty-first century. Different ensemble members are constructed by varying values of the parameters governing mass| horizontal distribution and radiative forcing of the stratospheric sulphates. It is obtained that| given a global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere| among those studied in this paper latitudinal distributions of geoengineering aerosols| the most efficient one at the global basis is that peaked between 50A degrees N and 70A degrees N and with a somewhat smaller burden in the tropics. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is a little less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000-2010 amount to more than 10 TgS/year in the year 2100. These emissions may be reduced if some warming is allowed to occur in the twenty-first century. For instance| if the global temperature trend S (g) in every decade of this century is limited not to exceed 0.10 K/decade (0.15 K/decade)| geoengineering emissions of 4-14 TgS/year (2-7 TgS/year) would be sufficient. Even if the global warming is stopped| temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. In addition| for the stabilised global mean surface air temperature| global precipitation decreases by about 10%. If geoengineering emissions are stopped after several decades of implementation| their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period| surface air temperature may grow with a rate of several Kelvins per decade. The results obtained with the IAP RAS CM are further interpreted employing a globally averaged energy-balance climate model. With the latter model| an analytical estimate for sulphate aerosol emissions in the stratosphere required climate mitigation is obtained. It is shown that effective vertical localisation of the imposed radiative forcing is important for geoengineering efficiency. 11296,2010,4,3,Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall,Spatial variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall changes over the tropics are investigated based on ensemble simulations for the first half of the twenty-first century under the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario A1B with coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Despite a GHG increase that is nearly uniform in space| pronounced patterns emerge in both SST and precipitation. Regional differences in SST warming can be as large as the tropical-mean warming. Specifically| the tropical Pacific warming features a conspicuous maximum along the equator and a minimum in the southeast subtropics. The former is associated with westerly wind anomalies whereas the latter is linked to intensified southeast trade winds| suggestive of wind-evaporation-SST feedback. There is a tendency for a greater warming in the northern subtropics than in the southern subtropics in accordance with asymmetries in trade wind changes. Over the equatorial Indian Ocean| surface wind anomalies are easterly| the thermocline shoals| and the warming is reduced in the east| indicative of Bjerknes feedback. In the midlatitudes| ocean circulation changes generate narrow banded structures in SST warming. The warming is negatively correlated with wind speed change over the tropics and positively correlated with ocean heat transport change in the northern extratropics. A diagnostic method based on the ocean mixed layer heat budget is developed to investigate mechanisms for SST pattern formation. Tropical precipitation changes are positively correlated with spatial deviations of SST warming from the tropical mean. In particular| the equatorial maximum in SST warming over the Pacific anchors a band of pronounced rainfall increase. The gross moist instability follows closely relative SST change as equatorial wave adjustments flatten upper-tropospheric warming. The comparison with atmospheric simulations in response to a spatially uniform SST warming illustrates the importance of SST patterns for rainfall change| an effect overlooked in current discussion of precipitation response to global warming. Implications for the global and regional response of tropical cyclones are discussed. 11130,2010,3,4,Global Warming Potential and Fossil-Energy Requirements of Biodiesel Production Scenarios in South Africa,Life cycle assessment has been used to investigate the global warming potential (GWP) and fossil-energy requirements of the production of biodiesel from canola (oilseed rape)| soybean| and sunflower oils in South Africa. The effect of scale and transportation of raw materials and products was investigated| as well as the effect of ploughing grassland and using irrigation to grow oil crops. This research shows that the GWP and fossil-energy requirements of biodiesel produced in South Africa vary widely| depending upon predominantly the crop yield| the requirement for irrigation| and the ploughing of uncultivated land. For the best case scenario| where no uncultivated land is newly ploughed and irrigation is not required| biodiesel has a GWP 20-36% lower than that of the fossil diesel mix currently used in South Africa and a fossil-energy requirement 50-62% lower. However| in the worst case scenario| where oil-seed crops are grown on newly cultivated land requiring substantial irrigation| this paper concludes that biodiesel can have a GWP significantly higher than South African fossil diesel. The scale of operation and transport distances involved are shown to have little influence on the GWP and fossil-energy requirement of biodiesel produced in South Africa. 10899,2010,3,3,Global Warming Potential of Inhaled Anesthetics: Application to Clinical Use,BACKGROUND: Inhaled anesthetics are recognized greenhouse gases. Calculating their relative impact during common clinical usage will allow comparison to each other and to carbon dioxide emissions in general. METHODS: We determined infrared absorption cross-sections for sevoflurane and isoflurane. Twenty-year global warming potential (GWP(20)) values for desflurane| sevoflurane| and isoflurane were then calculated using the present and previously published infrared results| and best estimate atmospheric lifetimes were determined. The total quantity of each anesthetic used in 1 minimal alveolar concentration (MAC)-hour was then multiplied by the calculated GWP(20) for that anesthetic| and expressed as "carbon dioxide equivalent" (CDE(20)) in grams. Common fresh gas flows and carrier gases| both air/oxygen and nitrous oxide (N(2)O)/oxygen| were considered in the calculations to allow these examples to represent common clinical use of inhaled anesthetics. RESULTS: GWP(20) values for the inhaled anesthetics were: sevoflurane 349| isoflurane 1401| and desflurane 3714. CDE(20) values for 1 MAC-hour at 2 L fresh gas flow were: sevoflurane 6980 g| isoflurane 15|551 g| and desflurane 187|186 g. Comparison among these anesthetics produced a ratio of sevoflurane 1| isoflurane 2.2| and desflurane 26.8. When 60% N(2)O/40% oxygen replaced air/oxygen as a carrier gas combination| and inhaled anesthetic delivery was adjusted to deliver 1 MAC-hour of anesthetic| sevoflurane CDE(20) values were 5.9 times higher with N(2)O than when carried with air/O(2)| isoflurane values were 2.9 times higher| and desflurane values were 0.4 times lower. On a 100-year time horizon with 60% N(2)O| the sevoflurane CDE(100) values were 19 times higher than when carried in air/O(2)| isoflurane values were 9 times higher| and desflurane values were equal with and without N(2)O. CONCLUSIONS: Under comparable and common clinical conditions| desflurane has a greater potential impact on global warming than either isoflurane or sevoflurane. N(2)O alone produces a sizable greenhouse gas contribution relative to sevoflurane or isoflurane. Additionally| 60% N(2)O combined with potent inhaled anesthetics to deliver 1 MAC of anesthetic substantially increases the environmental impact of sevofturane and isoflurane| and decreases that of desflurane. N(2)O is destructive to the ozone layer as well as possessing GWP; it continues to have impact over a longer timeframe| and may not be an environmentally sound tradeoff for desflurane. From our calculations| avoiding N(2)O and unnecessarily high fresh gas flow rates can reduce the environmental impact of inhaled anesthetics. (Anesth Analg 2010;111:92-8) 10495,2010,2,3,Global warming shifts Pacific tropical cyclone location,A global high-resolution (similar to 40 km) atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM5 T319) is used to investigate the change of tropical cyclone frequency in the North Pacific under global warming. A time slice method is used in which sea surface temperature fields derived from a lower-resolution coupled model run under the 20C3M (in which historical greenhouse gases in 20th century were prescribed as a radiative forcing) and A1B (in which carbon dioxide concentration was increased 1% each year from 2000 to 2070 and then was kept constant) scenarios are specified as the lower boundary conditions to simulate the current and the future warming climate| respectively. A significant shift is found in the location of tropical cyclones from the western to central Pacific. The shift to more tropical cyclones in the central and less in the western Pacific is not attributable to a change in atmospheric static stability| but to a change in the variance of tropical synoptic-scale perturbations associated with a change in the background vertical wind shear and boundary layer divergence. Citation: Li| T.| M. Kwon| M. Zhao| J.-S. Kug| J.-J. Luo| and W. Yu (2010)| Global warming shifts Pacific tropical cyclone location| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L21804| doi:10.1029/2010GL045124. 11146,2010,2,4,Global Warming Will Bring New Fungal Diseases for Mammals,Fungi are major pathogens of plants| other fungi| rotifers| insects| and amphibians| but relatively few cause disease in mammals. Fungi became important human pathogens only in the late 20th century| primarily in hosts with impaired immunity as a consequence of medical interventions or HIV infection. The relatively high resistance of mammals has been attributed to a combination of a complex immune system and endothermy. Mammals maintain high body temperatures relative to environmental temperatures| creating a thermally restrictive ambient for the majority of fungi. According to this view| protection given by endothermy requires a temperature gradient between those of mammals and the environment. We hypothesize that global warming will increase the prevalence of fungal diseases in mammals by two mechanisms: (i) increasing the geographic range of currently pathogenic species and (ii) selecting for adaptive thermotolerance for species with significant pathogenic potential but currently not pathogenic by virtue of being restricted by mammalian temperatures. 10406,2010,4,4,Gravity measurements in southeastern Alaska reveal negative gravity rate of change caused by glacial isostatic adjustment,For the past 300 years| southeastern Alaska has undergone rapid ice-melting and land uplift attributable to global warming. Corresponding crustal deformation (3 cm/yr) caused by the Little Ice Age retreat is detectable with modern geodetic techniques such as GPS and tidal gauge measurements. Geodetic deformation provides useful information for assessing ice-melting rates| global warming effects| and subcrustal viscosity. Nevertheless| integrated geodetic observations| including gravity measurements| are important. To detect crustal deformation caused by glacial isostatic adjustment and to elucidate the viscosity structure in southeastern Alaska| Japanese and U. S. researchers began a joint 3-year project in 2006 using GPS| Earth tide| and absolute gravity measurements. A new absolute gravity network was established| comprising five sites around Glacier Bay| near Juneau| Alaska. This paper reports the network's gravity measurements during 2006-2008. The bad ocean model in this area hindered ocean loading correction: Large tidal residuals remain in the observations. Accurate tidal correction necessitated on-site tidal observation. Results show high observation precision for all five stations: <1 mu Gal. The gravity rate of change was found to be -3.5 to -5.6 mu Gal/yr in the gravity network. Furthermore| gravity results obtained during the 3 years indicate a similar gravity change rate. These gravity data are anticipated for application in geophysical studies of southeastern Alaska. Using gravity and vertical displacement data| we constructed a quantity to remove viscoelastic effects. The observations are thus useful to constrain present-day ice thickness changes. A gravity bias of about -13.2 +/- 0.1 mGal exists between the Potsdam and current FG5 gravity data. 11033,2010,3,4,Grazing Management Contributions to Net Global Warming Potential: A Long-term Evaluation in the Northern Great Plains,The role of grassland ecosystems as net sinks or sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is limited by a paucity of information regarding management impacts on the flux of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and methane (CH(4)) Furthermore| no long-term evaluation of net global warming potential (GWP) for grassland ecosystems in the northern Great Plains (NGP) of North America has been reported Given this need| we sought to determine net GWP for duce grazing management systems located within the NGP Grazing management systems included two native vegetation pastures (moderately grazed pasture [MGP]| heavily grazed pasture [HGP]) and a heavily grazed crested wheatgrass [Agropyron desertorum (Fisch ex Link) Schult] pasture (CWP) near Mandan| ND Factors evaluated for their contribution to GWP included (i) CO(2) emissions associated with N fertilizer production and application| (ii) literature-derived estimates of CH(4) production for enteric fermentation| (iii) change in soil organic carbon (SOC) over 44 yr using archived soil samples| and (iv) soil-atmosphere N(2)O and CH(4) fluxes over 3 yr using static chamber methodology Analysis of SOC indicated all pastures to be significant sinks for SOC| with sequestration rates ranging from 0 39 to 0.46 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1). All pastures were minor sinks for CH(4) (<2 0 kg CH(4)-C ha(-1) yr(-1)). Greater N inputs within CWP contributed to annual N(2)O emission nearly threefold greater than HGP and MGP Due to differences in stocking rate. CH(4) production from enteric fermentation was nearly threefold less in MGP than CWP and HGP When factors contributing to net GWP were summed. HGP and MGP were found to serve as net CO(2equiv) sinks| while CWP was a net CO(2equiv) source. Values for GWP and GHG intensity| however| indicated net reductions in GHG emissions can be most effectively achieved through moderate stocking rates on native vegetation in the NGP. 10462,2010,2,3,Great Plains Precipitation and Its SST Links in Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations| and Twenty-First- and Twenty-Second-Century Climate Projections,The present work assesses spring and summer precipitation over North America as well as summer precipitation variability over the central United States and Its SST links in simulations of the twentieth century climate and projections of the twenty first and twenty second century climates for the A1B scenario The observed spatial structure of spring and summer precipitation poses a challenge for models particularly over the western and central United States Tendencies in spring precipitation in the twenty first century agree with the observed ones at the end of the twentieth century over a wetter north central and a drier southwestern United States and a drier southeastern Mexico Projected wetter springs over the Great Plains in the twenty first and twenty second centuries are associated with an increase in the number of extreme springs In contrast projected summer tendencies have demonstrated little consistency The associated observed changes in SSTs bear the global warming footprint which is not well captured in the twentieth century climate simulations Precipitation variability over the Great Plains presents a coherent picture in spring but not in summer Models project an Increase in springtime precipitation variability owing to an increased number of extreme springs The number of extreme droughty (pluvial) events during the spring fall part of the year is under(over)estimated in the twentieth century without consistent projections Summer precipitation variability over the Great Plains is linked to SSTs over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans with no apparent ENSO link in spite of the exaggerated variability in the equatorial Pacific in climate simulations this h is been identified already in observations and atmospheric models forced with historical SSTs This link is concealed due to the Increased warming in the twenty first century Deficiencies in land surface atmosphere interactions and global teleconnections in the climate models prevent them from a better portrayal of summer precipitation variability in the central United States 11171,2010,3,2,Green waste compost reduces nitrous oxide emissions from feedlot manure applied to soil,Australia produces in excess of 1 million tonnes of feedlot manure (FLM) annually. Application of FLM to grain cropping and grazing soils could provide a valuable nutrient resource. However| because of high nutrient concentration| especially of N (>2%)| FLM has the potential for environmental pollution| for example| N pollution to the water bodies and N(2)O emission to the atmosphere. Therefore| controlling N supply from FLM is essential for the judicious utilisation of FLM in the field as well as reducing N(2)O emission to the atmosphere. We utilised the low N concentration green waste compost (GWC| about 3 million tonnes produced annually) as a potential management tool to assess its effectiveness in regulating N release from FLM and controlling the rates of N(2)O emission from field application when both FLM and GWC were applied together to sorghum (Sorghum bicolor Moench) grown on a Vertisol. We measured N(2)O emission rates during the sorghum crop and clean fallowing over one-year period in the field. Annual soil N(2)O emissions were 5.0 kg N(2)O ha(-1) from urea applied at 150 kg N ha(-1)| 5.1 and 5.5 kg N(2)O ha(-1) from FLM applied at 10 and 20 t ha(-1) respectively| 2.2 kg N(2)O ha-1 from GWC applied at 10 t ha(-1)| 4.3 kg N(2)O ha(-1) from FLM and GWC applied together at 10 t ha(-1) each| and 3.3 kg N(2)O ha(-1) from the unamended soil. Thus| we found that GWC application reduced N(2)O emissions below those from an unamended soil while annual emission rate from FLM approached that from fertiliser N application (similar to 0.7% N(2)O emission factor). A mixture of FLM + GWC applied at 10 t ha(-1) each reduced N(2)O emission factor by 64% (the emission factor was 0.22%)| most likely by reducing the amount of mineral N in the soil because soil NH(4)-N and NO(3)-N and the rate of N(2)O emission were significantly correlated in this soil. Since the global warming potential of N(2)O is 298 times that of CO(2)| even a small reduction in N(2)O emission from GWC application has a significant and positive impact on reducing global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10620,2010,3,3,GREEN-MAC-LCCP: A Tool for Assessing the Life Cycle Climate Performance of MAC Systems,In 2008| 95% of the vehicle fleet in the developed countries and 80% of fleet in the developing countries were equipped with mobile air conditioning systems (MACs). Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are emitted due to refrigerant leakage (direct emissions) and due to the energy consumed by MACs operation (indirect emissions). In response to reducing the global warming impact of MACs| policy makers and the industry are investigating alternative refrigerant systems that use low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants. The GREEN-MAC-LCCP model assesses the direct and indirect CO(2) equivalent emissions related to MACs usage| as well as those associated with the production| use and disposal of alternative refrigerants and MACs components. This model provides a platform for simple data input and provides an output summary as well as details that can be analyzed in a custom fashion by the user. It provides engineers and policy makers a state-of-the-art tool| based on sound engineering data and methods| in order to facilitate the process of evaluating alternate refrigerants with low lifecycle global warming impact as well as providing the total impact of any MACs on the environment It has been recognized as the standard of the MACs industry. 11144,2010,2,3,Greenhouse Gas Budget of a Cool-Temperate Deciduous Broad-Leaved Forest in Japan Estimated Using a Process-Based Model,A terrestrial ecosystem model| called the Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases model (VISIT)| which fully integrates biogeochemical carbon and nitrogen cycles| was developed to simulate atmosphere-ecosystem exchanges of greenhouse gases (CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O)| and to determine the global warming potential (GWP) taking into account the radiative forcing effect of each gas. The model was then applied to a cool-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest in Takayama| central Japan (36A degrees 08'N| 137A degrees 25'E| 1420 m above sea level). Simulations were conducted at a daily time step from 1948 to 2008| using time-series meteorological and nitrogen deposition data. VISIT accurately captured the carbon and nitrogen cycles of this typical Japanese forest| as validated by tower and chamber flux measurements. During the last 10 years of the simulation| the model estimated that the forest was a net greenhouse gas sink| having a GWP equivalent of 1025.7 g CO(2) m(-2) y(-1)| most of which (1016.9 g CO(2) m(-2) y(-1)) was accounted for by net CO(2) sequestration into forest biomass regrowth. CH(4) oxidation by the forest soil made a small contribution to the net sink (11.9 g CO(2)-eq. m(-2) y(-1))| whereas N(2)O emissions were a very small source (3.2 g CO(2)-eq. m(-2) y(-1))| as expected for a volcanic soil in a humid climate. Analysis of the sensitivity of GWP to changes in temperature| precipitation| and nitrogen deposition indicated that warming temperatures would decrease the size of the sink| mainly as a result of increased CO(2) release due to increased ecosystem respiration. 11341,2010,3,3,Greenhouse gas emission factor development for coal-fired power plants in Korea,Accurate estimation of greenhouse gas emissions is essential for developing an appropriate strategy to mitigate global warming. This study examined the characteristics of greenhouse gas emission from power plants| a major greenhouse gas source in Korea. The power plants examined use bituminous coal| anthracite| and sub-bituminous coal as fuel. The CO(2) concentration from power plants was measured using GC-FID with methanizer. The amount of carbon| hydrogen| and calorific values in the input fuel was measured using an elemental analyzer and calorimeter. For fuel analysis| CO(2) emission factors for anthracite| bituminous coal| and sub-bituminous coal were 108.9| 88.4| and 97.9 Mg/kj| respectively. The emission factors developed in this study were compared with those for IPCC. The results showed that CO(2) emission was 10.8% higher for anthracite| 5.5% lower for bituminous coal| and 1.9% higher for sub-bituminous coal than the IPCC figures. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 10843,2010,3,3,Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Relevant to Changes in Municipal Solid Waste Management System,Standard methods for assessing the environmental impact of waste management systems are needed to underpin the development and implementation of sustainable waste management practice. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a tool for comprehensively ensuring such assessment and covers all impacts associated with waste management. LCA is often called "from cradle to grave" analysis. This paper integrates information on the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of various management options for some of the most common materials in municipal solid waste (MSW). Different waste treatment options for MSW were studied in a system analysis. Different combinations of recycling (cardboard| plastics| glass| metals)| biological treatment (composting)| and incineration as well as land-filling were studied. The index of environmental burden in the global warming impact category was calculated. The calculations are based on LCA methodology. All emissions taking place in the whole life cycle system were taken into account. The analysis included "own emissions|" or emissions from the system at all stages of the life cycle| and "linked emissions|" or emissions from other sources linked with the system in an indirect way. Avoided emissions caused by recycling and energy recovery were included in the analysis. Displaced emissions of GHGs originate from the substitution of energy or materials derived from waste for alternative sources. The complex analysis of the environmental impact of municipal waste management systems before and after application of changes in MSW systems according to European Union regulations is presented in this paper. The evaluation is made for MSW systems in Poland. 10422,2010,3,3,Greenhouse gas emissions and energy use in UK-grown short-day strawberry (Fragaria xananassa Duch) crops,Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and optimizing energy consumption are important for mitigating climate change and improving resource use efficiency. Strawberry (Fragaria xananassa Duch) crops are a key component of the UK soft fruit sector and potentially resource-intensive crops. This is the first study to undertake a detailed environmental impact assessment of all methods of UK strawberry production. A total of 14 systems with six additional sub-systems grown for between 1 and 3 years were identified. They were defined by the growing of short-day (Junebearer) or everbearer varieties| organic production| covering with polytunnels or grown in the open| soil-grown (with or without fumigation) or container-grown (with peat or coir substrate) and summer or spring planted. Preharvest| the global warming potential varied between 1.5 and 10.3 t CO(2) equiv/ha/crop or 0.13 and 1.14 t CO(2) equiv/t of class 1 fruit. Key factors included the use of tunnels| mulch and irrigation| sterilization of soil with fumigants and the use of peat substrate. Seasonal crops without covers grown where rotation of sufficient length reduced Verticillium (system 4) were the most efficient. System 4a (that did not use mulch) emitted 0.13 t CO(2) equiv/t of class 1 fruit. A second or third cropping year in soil-grown systems prolonged the effect of mulch and soil fumigants. Greenhouse gases from system 4 (with mulch) averaged 0.30 t CO(2) equiv/t of class 1 fruit after 3 years of cropping compared to 0.63 and 0.36 t CO(2) equiv/t after 1 and 2 years| respectively. 11277,2010,3,4,Greenhouse gas emissions from power generation and consumption in a nordic perspective,During the last decade| there has been an intensive debate on-going in Sweden about how power generation and use affect global warming. More precisely| the discussion has considered how electricity shall be assessed from an environmental and climate perspective in different situations. This article gives a critical analysis on the main viewpoints. A number of environmental-impact assessment principles are outlined and critically examined. Concepts like average electricity and marginal electricity are discussed| and Electricity Disclosure as a basis for evaluation is addressed. The impact from Emission Trading and Tradable Green Certificates is also considered. Recommendations to concerned stakeholders are given. The clash points in the Swedish debate are highlighted and thus made available to a broader audience outside Scandinavia. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10625,2010,3,4,Greenhouse gas emissions in China 2007: Inventory and input-output analysis,For greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the Chinese economy in 2007 with the most recent statistics availability| a concrete inventory covering CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O is composed and associated with an input-output analysis to reveal the emission embodiment in final consumption and international trade. The estimated total direct GHG emission amounts to 7456.12 Mt CO(2)-eq by the commonly referred IPCC global warming potentials| with 63.39% from energy-related CO(2)| 22.31% from non-energy-related CO(2)| 11.15% from CH(4) and 3.15% from N(2)O. Responsible for 81.32% of the total GHG emissions are the five sectors of the Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply| Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals| Nonmetal Mineral Products. Agriculture| and Coal Mining and Dressing| with distinctive emission structures. The sector of Construction holds the top GHG emissions embodied in both domestic production and consumption| and the emission embodied in gross capital formation is prominently more than those in other components of the final consumption characterized by extensive investment in contrast to limited household consumption. China is a net exporter of embodied GHG emissions| with emissions embodied in exports of 3060.18 Mt CO(2)-eq| in magnitude up to 41.04% of the total direct emission. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11186,2010,3,3,Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Economics for Irrigated Cropping Systems in Northeastern Colorado,Recent soil and crop management technologies have potential for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions; however| these management strategies must be profitable if they are to be adopted by producers. The economic feasibility of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions in irrigated cropping systems was evaluated for 5 yr on a Fort Coffins clay loam soil (a fine-loamy| mixed| superactive| mesic Aridic Haplustalf). Cropping system Is included conventional tillage continuous corn (Zea mays L.) (CT-CC)| no-till continuous corn (NT-CC)| and no-till corn-bean (NT-CB) including 1 yr soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] and 1 yr dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). The study included six N fertilization rates ranging from 0 to 246 kg ha(-1). Results showed highest average net returns for NT-CB| exceeding net returns for NT-CC and CT-CC by US$182 and US$228 ha(-1)| respectively| at economically optimum N fertilizer rates. Net global warming potential (GWP) generally increased with increasing N fertilizer rate with the exception of NT-CC| where net GWP initially declined and then increased at higher N rates. Combining economic and net GWP measurements showed that producers have an economic incentive to switch from CT-CC to NT-CB| increasing annual average net returns by US$228 ha(-1) while reducing annual net GWP by 929 kg CO(2) equivalents ha(-1). The greatest GWP reductions (1463 kg CO(2) equivalents ha(-1)) could be achieved by switching from CT-CC to NT-CC while also increasing net returns| but the presence of a more profitable NT-CB alternative means NT-CC is unlikely to be chosen without additional economic incentives. 677,2010,4,4,Harmful algae and their potential impacts on desalination operations off southern California,Seawater desalination by reverse osmosis (RO) is a reliable method for augmenting drinking water supplies. In recent years| the number and size of these water projects have increased dramatically As freshwater resources become limited due to global climate change| rising demand| and exhausted local water supplies| seawater desalination will play an important role in the world's future water supply| reaching far beyond its deep roots in the Middle East Emerging contaminants have been widely discussed with respect to wastewater and freshwater sources| but also must be considered for seawater desalination facilities to ensure the long-term safety and Suitability of this emerging water supply Harmful algal blooms| frequently referred to as 'red tides' due to their vibrant colors| are a concern for desalination plants due to the high biomass of microalgae present in ocean waters during these events| and a variety of substances that some of these algae produce These compounds range from noxious substances to powerful neurotoxins that constitute significant public health risks if they are not effectively and completely removed by the RO membranes Algal blooms can cause significant operational issues that result in increased chemical consumption| increased membrane fouling rates| and in extreme cases| a plant to be taken off-line Early algal bloom detection by desalination facilities is essential so that operational adjustments can be made to ensure that production capacity remains unaffected This review identifies the toxic substances| their known producers| and our present state of knowledge regarding the causes of toxic episodes| With a special focus on the Southern California Bight (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved 10894,2010,2,4,Heat-Induced Floret Sterility of Hybrid Rice (Oryza sativa L.) Cultivars under Humid and Low Wind Conditions in the Field of Jianghan Basin| China,Projected global warming is expected to increase the occurrence of heat-induced floret sterility (HIES) in rice. However| there are few field-scale studies that could aid in predicting the potential risks to rice yield and developing countermeasures against yield losses. The aim of this study was to elucidate the factors that induce floret sterility under high temperature conditions during the flowering season in the field condition in China. Studies were conducted in irrigated paddy fields with the regional hybrid-rice cultivars grown in Jianghan Basin where air temperature is not so high during the flowering season but HIES frequently occurs. The microclimate| panicle temperature| floret sterility| pollination| and size of dehiscence formed at the base of anthers were investigated. Significant losses in seed set were observed under the high temperature condition. Although the maximum atmospheric temperature was approximately 35 degrees C| the relative humidity was very high (around 70% at the time of maximum temperature)| with low wind speeds| occasionally below 1 m s(-1). Under such conditions sunlit panicle temperature exceeded atmospheric temperature by as much as 4 degrees C. Moreover| the anthers of some cultivars exhibited short basal dehiscence| and the dehiscence length was positively correlated with the percentage of sufficiently pollinated florets (r = 0.859| P<0.05| n=7) and with seed set (r = 0.827| P<0.05| n=7) across the cultivars. The results suggest that the combination of hot| humid| and windless climatic conditions with short basal dehiscence of anthers induces HIFS in hybrid rice grown in this region. 11440,2010,3,2,Heterogeneous catalytic CO(2) conversion to value-added hydrocarbons,The impact that anthropogenic CO(2) is having on the environment has been thoroughly documented over the last 20 years. Many different technologies have been proposed to reduce its impact on global warming such as geological sequestration. However| an interesting and attractive alternative would be the recycling of the gas into energy-rich molecules. Iron rather than cobalt catalysts| based on the Fischer-Tropsch technology| have shown the greatest promise in converting CO(2) to value-added hydrocarbons. The addition of co-catalysts is| however| essential to fine tune the product distribution to the more desired alkene products. The role that both the promoter and support play on the catalyst's activity is reviewed. 11523,2010,3,4,HFC-23 (CHF(3)) emission trend response to HCFC-22 (CHClF(2)) production and recent HFC-23 emission abatement measures,HFC-23 (also known as CHF(3)| fluoroform or trifluoromethane) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG)| with a global warming potential (GWP) of 14 800 for a 100-year time horizon. It is an unavoidable by-product of HCFC-22 (CHClF(2)| chlorodifluoromethane) production. HCFC-22| an ozone depleting substance (ODS)| is used extensively in commercial refrigeration and air conditioning| in the extruded polystyrene (XPS) foam industries (dispersive applications) and also as a feedstock in fluoropolymer manufacture (a non-dispersive use). Aside from small markets in specialty uses| HFC-23 has historically been considered a waste gas that was| and often still is| simply vented to the atmosphere. Efforts have been made in the past two decades to reduce HFC-23 emissions| including destruction (incineration) in facilities in developing countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's (UNFCCC) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)| and by process optimization and/or voluntary incineration by most producers in developed countries. We present observations of lower-tropospheric mole fractions of HFC-23 measured by 'Medusa' GC/MSD instruments from ambient air sampled in situ at the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network of five remote sites (2007-2009) and in Cape Grim air archive (CGAA) samples (1978-2009) from Tasmania| Australia. These observations are used with the AGAGE 2-D atmospheric 12-box model and an inverse method to produce model mole fractions and a 'top-down' HFC-23 emission history. The model 2009 annual mean global lower-tropospheric background abundance is 22.6 (+/- 0.2) pmol mol(-1). The derived HFC-23 emissions show a 'plateau' during 1997-2003| followed by a rapid similar to 50% increase to a peak of 15.0 (+1.3/-1.2) Gg/yr in 2006. Following this peak| emissions of HFC-23 declined rapidly to 8.6 (+0.9/-1.0) Gg/yr in 2009| the lowest annual emission of the past 15 years. We derive a 1990-2008 'bottom-up' HFC-23 emission history using data from the United Nations Environment Programme and the UNFCCC. Comparison with the top-down HFC-23 emission history shows agreement within the stated uncertainties. In the 1990s| HFC-23 emissions from developed countries dominated all other sources| then began to decline and eventually became fairly constant during 2003-2008. By this point| with developed countries' emissions essentially at a plateau| the major factor controlling the annual dynamics of global HFC-23 emissions became the historical rise of developing countries' HCFC-22 dispersive use production| which peaked in 2007. Thereafter in 2007-2009| incineration through CDM projects became a larger factor| reducing global HFC-23 emissions despite rapidly rising HCFC-22 feedstock production in developing countries. 11441,2010,5,3,High Earth-system climate sensitivity determined from Pliocene carbon dioxide concentrations,Climate sensitivity-the mean global temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO(2) concentrations through radiative forcing and associated feedbacks-is estimated at 1.5-4.5 degrees C (ref. 1). However| this value incorporates only relatively rapid feedbacks such as changes in atmospheric water vapour concentrations| and the distributions of sea ice| clouds and aerosols(2). Earth-system climate sensitivity| by contrast| additionally includes the effects of long-term feedbacks such as changes in continental ice-sheet extent| terrestrial ecosystems and the production of greenhouse gases other than CO(2). Here we reconstruct atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations for the early and middle Pliocene| when temperatures were about 3-4 degrees C warmer than preindustrial values(3-5)| to estimate Earth-system climate sensitivity from a fully equilibrated state of the planet. We demonstrate that only a relatively small rise in atmospheric CO(2) levels was associated with substantial global warming about 4.5 million years ago| and that CO(2) levels at peak temperatures were between about 365 and 415 ppm. We conclude that the Earth-system climate sensitivity has been significantly higher over the past five million years than estimated from fast feedbacks alone. 11000,2010,4,4,High-Accuracy Measurements of OH Reaction Rate Constants and IR Absorption Spectra: CH(2)=CF-CF(3) and trans-CHF=CH-CF(3),Rate constants for the gas phase reactions of OH radicals with two isomers of tetrafluoropropene| CH(2)=CF-CF(3) (k(1)) and trans-CHF=CH-CF(3) (k(2)); were measured using a flash photolysis resonance-fluorescence technique over the temperature range 220 to 370 K. The Arrhenius plots were found to exhibit a noticeable curvature. The temperature dependences of the rate constants are very weak and can be represented by the following expressions over the indicated temperature intervals: k(1)(220-298 K) = 1.45 x 10(-12) x exp\{13/T\} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) k(1)(298-370 K) = 4.06 x 10(-13) x (T/298)(1.17) x exp\{+296/T\} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) k(2)(220-370 K) = 1.115 x 10(-13) x (T/298)(2.03) x exp\{+552/T\} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) The overall accuracy of the rate constant measurements is estimated to be ca. 2% to 2.5% at the 95% confidence level. The uncertainty of the measured reaction rate constants is discussed in detail. The atmospheric lifetimes due to reactions with tropospheric OH were estimated to be 12 and 19 days respectively under the assumption of a well mixed atmosphere. IR absorption cross-sections were measured for both compounds and their global warming potentials were estimated. 10525,2010,5,2,High-resolution carbon isotope record for the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum from the Nanyang Basin| Central China,The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) was a transient episode of global warming| associated with massive atmospheric greenhouse gas input that occurred at the Paleocene/Eocene boundary. Biostratigraphic and isotope stratigraphic studies indicate that the PETM event is well documented in the marl deposits of the Yuhuangding section in the Nanyang Basin| Central China| with a carbon isotope negative excursion of similar to 6.1aEuro degrees within 19-m-thick marl deposits. This is the highest resolution record of the PETM so far found in the world. The PETM event was triggered within 2-cm-thick marl sediments| with a decrease of delta(13)C (stable carbon isotope ratio) from -3.2aEuro degrees to -5.2aEuro degrees| suggesting a massive methane hydrate release for a transient period that was possibly caused by a catastrophic event. A comparison between marine and terrestrial records indicates a "Three-Phase Model" for the PETM event. Initially there is a rapid negative excursion in the delta(13)C record| followed by a slowly decreasing trend| and then a gradual positive recovery| corresponding respectively to a rapid dissociation of oceanic methane hydrate| followed by a slow release of methane and then the consumption of the released methane. 10865,2010,5,4,High-resolution deep-sea carbon and oxygen isotope records of Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 and H2,Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) and H2 were two short-lived global warming events that occurred similar to 2 m.y. after the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM| ca. 56 Ma). We have generated benthic foraminiferal stable carbon and oxygen isotope records of four sites along a depth transect on Walvis Ridge (similar to 3.5-1.5 km paleodepth| southeast Atlantic Ocean) and one site on Maud Rise (Weddell Sea) to constrain the pattern and magnitude of their carbon isotope excursions (CIEs) and deep-sea warming. At all sites| ETM2 is characterized by similar to 3 degrees C warming and a -1.4 parts per thousand CIE. The H2 event that occurred similar to 100 k.y. later is associated with similar to 2 degrees C warming and a -0.8 parts per thousand CIE. The magnitudes of the delta(13)C and delta(18)O excursions of both events are significantly smaller than those during the PETM| but their coherent relation indicates that the delta(13)C change of the exogenic carbon pool was similarly related to warming during these events| despite the much more gradual and transitioned onset of ETM2 and H2. 11417,2010,2,2,High-temperature tolerance of a tropical tree| Ficus insipida: methodological reassessment and climate change considerations,In view of anthropogenic global warming| heat tolerance of a neotropical pioneer tree| Ficus insipida Willd.| was determined. Sections of sun leaves from a mature tree and from seedlings cultivated at ambient and elevated temperatures were heated to 42-53 degrees C. Leaves from a late-successional tree species| Virola sebifera Aubl.| were also studied. Widely used chlorophyll a fluorescence methods based on heat-induced rise of initial fluorescence emission| F(o)| and decrease in the ratio of variable to maximum fluorescence| F(v)/F(m)| were reassessed. F(v)/F(m) determined 24 h after heat treatment was the fluorescence parameter most suitable to assess the lethal temperature causing permanent tissue damage. Thermo-tolerance was underestimated when F(o) and F(v)/F(m) were recorded immediately after the heat treatment. The limit of thermo-tolerance was between 50 and 53 degrees C| only a few degrees C above peak leaf temperatures measured in situ. The absence of seasonal changes in thermo-tolerance and only marginal increases in thermo-tolerance of plants grown under elevated temperatures suggest little capacity for further heat acclimation. Heat-stress experiments with intact potted seedlings also revealed irreversible leaf damage at 51-53 degrees C| but plants survived and developed new leaves during post-culture. 11208,2010,2,4,Historical changes in the distributions of invasive and endemic marine invertebrates are contrary to global warming predictions: the effects of decadal climate oscillations,Aim We tested whether a hybrid zone that has formed between an endemic and an invasive species of marine mussel has shifted poleward as expected under a general hypothesis of global warming or has responded instead to decadal climate oscillations. Location We sampled 15 locations on the coast of California| USA| that span the distributions of the two species of marine mussels and their hybrids. Methods Mussels were sampled in 2005-08 and analysed at three nuclear gene loci using methods identical to those used in a study a decade earlier in order to document the genetic architecture of this system. Change in the system was determined by comparing the frequency of species-specific alleles and multi-locus genotypes over the intervening decade. Climate variation over the same period was examined by comparing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)| El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| upwelling indices and sea surface temperature (SST) during and prior to the study period. Results Contrary to the general expectations of global warming we show that the highly invasive warm-water mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone formed with the endemic species Mytilus trossulus has rapidly contracted southwards. Mytilus galloprovincialis declined in abundance over the northern third of its geographic range (c. 540 km) and has become rare or absent across the northern 200 km of the range it previously colonized during its initial invasion. The distribution of the native species M. trossulus has remained unchanged over the same time period. Main conclusions The large-scale range shift in the warm-water invasive species M. galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone it forms with M. trossulus has been exceptionally rapid and is in the opposite direction to that predicted by the global warming hypotheses. This shift| however| is consistent with decadal climate variation associated with the ENSO and the PDO. Since the biogeography of this system was first described in 1999| the PDO has shifted from a warm phase| dominated by frequent and large El Nino events| to a cold-phase period| with minimal ENSO activity. Thus recent decadal climate variation can oppose global trends in average temperature and this study illustrates the need to integrate the effects of climate change across multiple time-scales. 574,2010,2,4,Historical trends in the flows of the Breede River,The Breede River is not a large river by world standards| but is the largest in South Africa's Western Province| and plays a significant part in the province's economy. Models predict that flows into it could be seriously affected by climate change. Accordingly a study was made of trends in flow over recent decades| in the hope that any trends detected would confirm| or otherwise| the prediction of the models. Data on flows over 30 years at various sites in the Breede Valley were downloaded from the Department of Water Affairs. The data were first checked for consistency. In 2 cases there was evidence that behaviour of the flow had changed| apparently permanently| during the course of the study period (typically the variance of the flow had changed markedly at a particular point in time). The data series was accordingly truncated to make use only of the longest series of consistent records. A simple| robust technique was then employed to detect the trends. The data at each site had a log-normal distribution| and linear regression of the log-transformed data was used to detect the trend. An F-test showed that in all cases the trends were significant; in one case a t-test indicated the detected trend was of low significance| but all others were highly significant. The results are discussed in terms of land use changes being a dominant factor in flows in the Breede River system| to an extent that should not have been ignored in attempting to use the data to predict future flows. Indeed| only one of the sites used in the study had a pristine watershed| and that showed a 14% increase in flow over the study period| contrary to the climate change predictions. There had earlier been a suggestion that climate change might be responsible for the changes in flows. It is generally recognised that climate change models cannot yet account for local climate change effects. Predictions of possible adverse local impacts from global climate change should therefore be treated with the greatest caution. Above all| they must not form the basis for any policy decisions until such time as they can reproduce known climatic effects satisfactorily. 11113,2010,2,4,How closely do changes in surface and column water vapor follow Clausius-Clapeyron scaling in climate change simulations?,The factors governing the rate of change in the amount of atmospheric water vapor are analyzed in simulations of climate change. The global-mean amount of water vapor is estimated to increase at a differential rate of 7.3% K(-1) with respect to global-mean surface air temperature in the multi-model mean. Larger rates of change result if the fractional change is evaluated over a finite change in temperature (e.g.| 8.2% K(-1) for a 3 K warming)| and rates of change of zonal-mean column water vapor range from 6 to 12% K(-1) depending on latitude. Clausius-Clapeyron scaling is directly evaluated using an invariant distribution of monthly-mean relative humidity| giving a rate of 7.4% K(-1) for global-mean water vapor. There are deviations from Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of zonal-mean column water vapor in the tropics and mid-latitudes| but they largely cancel in the global mean. A purely thermodynamic scaling based on a saturated troposphere gives a higher global rate of 7.9% K(-1). Surface specific humidity increases at a rate of 5.7% K(-1)| considerably lower than the rate for global-mean water vapor. Surface specific humidity closely follows Clausius-Clapeyron scaling over ocean. But there are widespread decreases in surface relative humidity over land (by more than 1% K(-1) in many regions)| and it is argued that decreases of this magnitude could result from the land/ocean contrast in surface warming. 10517,2010,2,4,How does local weather predict red deer home range size at different temporal scales?,P>1. There is a rapidly growing literature on how climate affects populations of vertebrates. For large herbivorous mammals| most attention has been paid to demographic responses to climate variation. Much less information is available regarding how climate affects animal behaviour| i.e. the climate mechanisms. Further| the appropriate measurement scale of climate variables remains debated. Here| we investigate how local climate variables determine home range sizes at four temporal scales using the Borger-method on GPS telemetry data from 47 female red deer Cervus elaphus L. in Norway. 2. If local climate operates directly on the immediate activity level of the animal| we predict home range sizes to show season-specific variation on short temporal scale (weekly-daily) related to temperature and precipitation. If local climate operate indirectly through plant growth| we rather predict variation in home range sizes to be apparent on longer time scales (biweekly-monthly)| and during summer only. 3. At all time scales home range size was positively correlated with temperature during winter and negatively during summer| while the effect of precipitation was season- and scale-specific| except when accumulating as snow. Extensive snow cover decreased home range size| indicating direct effects of climate. 4. The effects of local climate was weaker at the shortest time scales (weekly-daily) compared to the longest time scales (monthly-biweekly)| while the effects of day length on home range size was only apparent on the monthly and daily scale. At the longest time scales variation in local climate had a large effect on home range size. This is consistent with climatic variables operating indirectly through plant growth| but we cannot exclude a certain direct effect even at longer time scales. 5. We show how local climate-home range size correlations measured over different temporal scales can be used to infer direct and indirect climate mechanisms. Insight on the behavioural basis of responses to climate enables more accurate predictions of possible nonlinear relationships to future global warming. 408,2010,2,4,How much can the number of jabiru stork (Ciconiidae) nests vary due to change of flood extension in a large Neotropical floodplain?,The jabiru stork| Jabiru mycteria (Lichtenstein| 1819)| a large| long-legged wading bird occurring in lowland wetlands from southern Mexico to northern Argentina| is considered endangered in a large portion of its distribution range. We conducted aerial surveys to estimate the number of jabiru active nests in the Brazilian Pantanal (140|000 km(2)) in September of 1991-1993| 1998| 2000-2002| and 2004. Corrected densities of active nests were regressed against the annual hydrologic index (AHI)| an index of flood extension in the Pantanal based on the water level of the Paraguay River. Annual nest density was a non-linear function of the AHI| modeled by the equation 6.5 . 10(-8) . AHI(1.99) (corrected r(2) = 0.72| n = 7). We applied this model to the AHI between 1900 and 2004. The results indicate that the number of jabiru nests may have varied from about 220 in 1971 to more than 23|000 in the nesting season of 1921| and the estimates for our study period (1991 to 2004) averaged about 12|400 nests. Our model indicates that the inter-annual variations in flooding extent can determine dramatic changes in the number of active jabiru nests. Since the jabiru stork responds negatively to drier conditions in the Pantanal| direct human-induced changes in the hydrological patterns| as well as the effects of global climate change| may strongly jeopardize the population in the region. 11361,2010,3,4,Hydraulic Hybrid Propulsion for Heavy Vehicles: Combining the Simulation and Engine-In-the-Loop Techniques to Maximize the Fuel Economy and Emission Benefits,Hydraulic Hybrid Propulsion for Heavy Vehicles: Combining the Simulation and Engine-In-the-Loop Techniques to Maximize the Fuel Economy and Emission Benefits The global energy situation| the dependence of the transportation sector on fossil fuels| and a need fur a rapid response to the global warming challenge| provide a strong impetus for development of fuel efficient vehicle propulsion. The task is particularly challenging in the case of trucks due to severe weight/size constraints. Hybridization is the only approach offering significant breakthroughs in near and mid-term. In particular| the series configuration decouples the engine from the wheels and allows full flexibility in controlling the engine operation| while the hydraulic energy conversion and storage provides exceptional power density and efficiency. The challenge stems from a relatively low energy density of the hydraulic accumulator. This places particular emphasis on development of the supervisory controller. The conventional wisdom is to operate the engine at the "sweet spot"| but the aggressive pursuit of engine efficiency as the sole objective can lead to frequent and rapid diesel engine transients| thus causing an adverse affect on the soot emissions and driver feel. Therefore| we propose a comprehensive methodology for considering a combined hybrid system fuel-economy and emissions objective. The fuel economy is addressed with the simulation-based approach| while investigating the impact of engine transients on particulate emission relies on the Engine-In-the-loop (EIL) capability. The EIL study confirms advantages of a modulated state-of-charge control over the thermostatic approach| and demonstrates the ability of the Series Hydraulic Hybrid to improve the fuel economy of the medium truck by 72%| while reducing the particulate emission by 74% compared to the conventional baseline over the city driving schedule. 632,2010,2,4,Hyperthermic aphids: Insights into behaviour and mortality,Although the impact of warming on winter limitation of aphid populations is reasonably well understood| the impacts of hot summers and heat wave events are less clear. In this study| we address this question through a detailed analysis of the thermal ecology of three closely related aphid species: Myzus persicae| a widespread| polyphagous temperate zone pest| Myzus polaris| an arctic aphid potentially threatened by climate warming| and| Myzus ornatus| a glasshouse pest that may benefit from warming. The upper lethal limits (ULT(50)) and heat coma temperatures of the aphid species reared at both 15 and 20 degrees C did not differ significantly| suggesting that heat coma is a reliable indicator of fatal heat stress. Heat coma and CT(max) were also measured after aphids were reared at 10 and 25 degrees C for one and three generations. The extent of the acclimation response was not influenced by the number of generations. Acclimation increased CT(max) with rearing temperature for all species. The acclimation temperature also influenced heat coma; this relationship was linear for M. ornatus and M. polaris but non-linear for M. persicae (increased tolerance at 10 and 25 degrees C). Bacteria known generically as secondary symbionts can promote thermal tolerance of aphids| but they were not detected in the aphids studied here. Assays of optimum development temperature were also performed for each species. All data indicate that M. persicae has the greatest tolerance of high temperatures. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 563,2010,4,4,Hysteretic freezing characteristics of riparian peatlands in the Western Boreal Forest of Canada,Freezing characteristics were investigated for a sedge covered floating fen and spruce covered swamp located beside a shallow lake in the Western Boreal Forest of Canada. Thermal properties were measured in situ for one freeze-thaw cycle| and for two freeze-thaw cycles in laboratory columns. Thermal conductivity and liquid water content were related to a range of subsurface temperatures above and below the freezing thresholds| and clearly illustrate hysteresis between the freezing and thawing process. Thermal hysteresis occurs because of the large change in thermal conductivity between water and ice| high water content of the peat| and wide variation in pore sizes that govern ice formation. Field and laboratory results were combined to develop linear freezing functions| which were tested in a heat transfer model. For surface temperature boundary conditions| subsurface temperatures were simulated for the over-winter period and compared with field measurements. Replication of the transient subsurface thermal regime required that freezing functions transition gradually from thawed to frozen state (spanning the -0.25 to -2 degrees C range) as opposed to a more abrupt step function. Subsurface temperatures indicate that the floating fen underwent complete phase change (from water to ice) and froze to approximately the same depth as lake ice thickness. Therefore| the floating fen peatland froze as a 'shelf' adjacent to the lake| whereas the spruce covered swamp had a higher capacity for thermal buffering| and subsurface freezing was both more gradual and limited in depth. These thermal properties| and the timing and duration of frozen state| are expected to control the interaction of water and nutrients between surface water and groundwater| which will be affected by changes in air temperature associated with global climate change. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 577,2010,3,3,IA-SDSS: A GIS-based land use decision support system with consideration of carbon sequestration,Land use| land use change and forestry (LULUCF) can play a positive role in mitigating global warming by sequestering carbon from the atmosphere into vegetation and soils. Local entities (e.g. local government| community| stockholders) have been making great efforts in enhancing carbon sequestration (CS) of local forests for mitigating global climate change and participating in international carbon-trade promoted by the Kyoto Protocol. Approaches and tools are needed to assess the enhancement of CS through land use changes and proper policy decisions. This paper presents an integrated assessment framework and a spatial decision support system (IA-SDSS) as a tool to support land-use planning and local forestry development with consideration of CS. The IA-SDSS integrates two process-based carbon models| a spatial decision (EMDS) module| a spatial cost-benefit analysis (CBA) module| and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) module. It can provide spatially explicit CS information as well as CS-induced economic benefits under various scenarios of the carbon credit market. A case study conducted in Liping County| Guizhou Province| China demonstrated that the IA-SDSS developed in this study is applicable in supporting decision-making on 'where' and 'how' to adopt forestry land use options in favor of CS. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 390,2010,2,4,ICE-DAMMED LAKES AND OUTBURST FLOODS| KARAKORAM HIMALAYA: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES ON EMERGING THREATS,The largest glacier impoundments in the Karakoram Himalaya are by ice dams formed where tributary glaciers block main rivers. These can cause outburst floods that spread destruction far through the mountains and into the lowlands. More than 90 outbursts from impoundments behind such dams have been identified. Of the largest and most destructive| 17 were on the upper Indus River and 10 on the Yarkand. Unlike "dangerous lakes" recently reported elsewhere in the Himalaya| these events are associated with advancing glaciers| in some cases glacial surges. The lakes are short-lived| rarely surviving more than one summer. Their outburst styles and flood waves exhibit distinctive features. This paper summarizes the behavior and current status of advances of more than a dozen glaciers with histories of large impoundments. Recent developments are assessed in relation to historical records and the Karakoram glacier environment. Destructive outburst floods have already occurred on the Yarkand and may be imminent on the Indus. Problems of predicting dangerous outbursts are outlined| uncertainties raised by limited and mainly older investigations. Implications of global climate change appear different for these hazards in this region than reports of dangerous glacial lakes elsewhere in the Himalaya. 11251,2010,2,4,Identification of important factors for water vapor flux and CO(2) exchange in a cropland,Water vapor flux and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) exchange in croplands are crucial to water and carbon cycle research as well as to global warming evaluation. In this study| a standard three-layer feed-forward back propagation neural network technique associated with the Bayesian technique of automatic relevance determination (ARD) was employed to investigate water vapor and CO(2) exchange between the canopy of summer maize and atmosphere in responses to variations of environmental and physiological factors. These factors| namely the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR)| air temperature (T)| vapor pressure deficient (VPD)| leaf-area index (LAI)| soil water content in root zone (W)| and friction velocity (U*)| were used as inputs in neural network analysis. Results showed that PAR| VPD| T and LAI were the primary factors regulating both water vapor and CO(2) fluxes with VPD and W more critical to water vapor flux and PAR and T more crucial to CO(2) exchange. Furthermore| two time variables "day of the year (DOY)" and "time of the day (TOD)" could also improve the simulation results of neural network analysis. The important factors identified by the neural network technique used in this study were in the order of PAR > T > VPD > LAI > U* > TOD for water vapor flux and in the order of VPD > W > LAI > T > PAR > DOY for CO(2) exchange. This study suggests that neural network technique associated with ARD could be a useful tool for identifying important factors regulating water vapor and CO(2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystem. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10897,2010,2,4,Identification of QTL in soybean underlying resistance to herbivory by Japanese beetles (Popillia japonica| Newman),Soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] was one of the most important legume crops in the world in 2010. Japanese beetles (JB; Popillia japonica| Newman) in the US were an introduced and potentially damaging insect pest for soybean. JBs are likely to spread across the US if global warming occurs. Resistance to JB in soybean was previously reported only in plant introductions. The aims here were to identify loci underlying resistance to JB herbivory in recombinant inbred lines (RILs) derived from the cross of Essex x Forrest cultivars (EF94) and to correlate those with loci with factors that confer insect resistance in soybean cultivars. The RIL population was used to map 413 markers| 238 satellite markers and 177 other DNA markers. Field data were from two environments over 2 years. Pest severity (PS) measured defoliation on a 0-9 scale. Pest incidence (PI) was the percentage of plants within each RIL with beetles on them. Antibiosis and antixenosis data were from feeding assays with detached leaves in petri plates. Five QTL were detected for the mean PS field trait (16% < R (2) < 27%). The loci were within the intervals Satt632-A2D8 on linkage group (LG) A2 (chromosome 8); Satt583-Satt415 on LG B1 (11); Satt009-Satt530 on LG N (3); and close to two markers OB02_140 (LG E; 20 cM from Satt572) and OZ15_150 LG (19 cM from Satt291 C2). Two QTL were detected for the mean PI field trait (16% < R (2) < 18%) close to Satt385 on LG A1 and Satt440 on LG I. The no choice feeding studies detected three QTL that were significant; two for antixenosis (22% < R (2) < 24%) between Satt632-A2D8 on LG A2 (8) and Sat_039-Satt160 on LG F (13); and a major locus effect (R (2) = 54%) for antibiosis on LG D2 (17) between Satt464-Satt488. Therefore| loci underlying resistance to JB herbivory were a mixture of major and minor gene effects. Some loci were within regions underlying resistance to soybean cyst nematode (LGs A2 and I) and root knot nematode (LG F) but not other major loci underlying resistance to nematode or insect pests (LGs G| H and M). 10818,2010,3,3,Identification of suitable areas for aerobic rice cultivation in the humid tropics of eastern India,In view of the depleting availability of water for agriculture| higher emission of nitrous oxide and methane from low land rice cultivation and their deleterious impact on global warming phenomenon| the present study stressed the need for cultivation of aerobic rice. The study focuses on identifying and mapping suitable sites in eastern India through computation of rice aridity index from soils and climatic data and proposing suitability criteria model and assessing potential yield. This study gains further significance since aerobic rice cultivation could improve the upland production efficiency and helps reduction of greenhouse gases. 10947,2010,3,4,Identifying the factors affecting the willingness to pay for fuel-efficient vehicles in Turkey: A case of hybrids,This paper aims to determine the factors that have an impact on the consumers' willingness to pay a premium for hybrid automobiles in Turkey. A web-based random survey was conducted in different regions of Turkey. A questionnaire was administered to 1983 participants in January-March of 2009. The questionnaire was prepared by taking the issues raised in various sources into account. An ordered Probit model was used to meet the objective. Results show that variables such as income| gender| education| concerns about global warming| number of automobiles| importance of automobile performance| risk preference| attitude toward the alternative energy sources have an impact on the consumers' willingness to pay a premium for hybrids. Findings suggest that consumers who have high income| higher educational level| and concerns about the global warming are more likely to pay a premium for hybrids. This study is expected to make important contributions to the current literature related to the consumers' willingness to pay for hybrids by providing a research study from a developing country's perspective. Results of this study also make important contributions to the policy and decision makers| environmental groups and automotive industry. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10468,2010,4,4,IFME representing municipal engineering,The President of the International Federation of Municipal Engineering (IFME) for 2009 to 2012 discusses problems that are common to all member countries and the priorities for IFME to address these issues. Global warming| skills shortages and the sustainable management of infrastructure are all highlighted as matters that every country should address. The work of IFME in communicating knowledge| research and best practice is illustrated along with a call for greater travel and work placements to be made available to young professionals to facilitate better communication in the future. The briefing highlights the problem of designing infrastructure for a future when global temperatures are likely to be far higher; methods of recruiting school students into working in the public sector to overcome the demographic problem of the looming retirement of the current generation of ageing professionals; the scale of the backlog of infrastructure renewal| much of which is now near the end of its service life. The briefing concludes with a discussion about the current membership of IFME| plans to expand its size and remit and an invitation to attend the 2012 congress in Finland. 11415,2010,3,4,Illustrating limitations of energy studies of buildings with LCA and actor analysis,Does passive housing really have better environmental performance than conventional housing? Three passive houses and four conventional houses were compared using a life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The comparison also provided an actor analysis for the building supply chain and building inhabitants. Results are presented for two scenarios: 'conventional choices' and 'green choices' by the actors. The comparison confirms that passive houses have lower energy use than conventional houses| but when the environmental impact of energy production is taken into consideration| the outcome is less clear. Conventional houses can be equally good environmentally in terms of global warming| acidification| or radioactive waste as typical passive houses with electrical heating depending on the actors' choices. Actor analysis shows that inhabitants' and material producers' electricity choice are very important| while other choices (e.g. green transport) are less important. The findings highlight the importance of environmentally responsible decisions throughout the whole life cycle and the need for appropriate behaviours and actions| along with implications for improved communication. 10638,2010,2,4,Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability,Climate change| involving changes in mean climate and climatic variability| is expected to severely affect agriculture and there is a need to assess its impact in order to define the appropriate adaptation strategies to cope with. In this paper| we projected a scenario of European agriculture in a +2 degrees C (above pre-industrial levels) world in order to assess the potential effect of climatic change and variability and to test the effectiveness of different adaptation options. For this purpose| the outputs of HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) were empirically downscaled for current climate (1975-2005) and a future period (2030-2060)| to feed a process-based crop simulation model| in order to quantify the impact of a changing climate on agriculture emphasising the impact due to changes in the frequency of extreme events (heat waves and drought). The same climatic dataset was used to compare the effectiveness of different adaptations to a warmer climate strategies including advanced or delayed sowing time| shorter or longer cycle cultivar and irrigation. The results indicated that both changes in mean climate and climate variability affected crop growth resulting in different crop fitting capacity to cope with climate change. This capacity mainly depended on the crop type and the geographical area across Europe. A +2 degrees C scenario had a higher impact on crops cultivated over the Mediterranean basin than on those cultivated in central and northern Europe as a consequence of drier and hotter conditions. In contrast| crops cultivated in Northern Europe generally exhibited higher than current yields| as a consequence of wetter conditions| and temperatures closer to the optimum growing conditions. Simple| no-cost adaptation options such as advancement of sowing dates or the use of longer cycle varieties may be implemented to tackle the expected yield loss in southern Europe as well as to exploit possible advantages in northern regions. 11053,2010,2,2,Impact of biomass burning on soil organic carbon and the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in the coastal savanna ecosystem of Ghana,The impact of escalating human activities on greenhouse gas emission| global warming| and changes in global climate patterns is almost certainly the most discussed issue in the first decade of the 21st century. Two-thirds of Africa's energy consumption consists of various forms of highly inefficient traditional biomass. In rural areas| low energy consumption is both a cause and consequence of poor development and also of the degradation of the natural environment. The burning of biomass or vegetation as a conventional land preparation method has a net negative impact on the soil organic carbon as well as on the environment through the oxidation of carbon into carbon dioxide| an anthropogenic greenhouse gas. This paper reports the findings of an experiment to investigate the impact of the heat due to burning on soil organic carbon at soil depths of 0-5 and 5-10 cm. It was observed that 21% decline in soil organic carbon resulted in the release of 1446 CO(2) kg ha(-1) into the atmosphere. This underscores the fact that burning of biomass as a land preparation method may not be sustainable when viewed against the backdrop that the African continent encompasses the most vulnerable regions and populations for current climate variability. This study is significant in that it is the first to shed light on the effects of burning on soil carbon in the coastal savanna ecosystem of Ghana and would potentially provide the impetus for further research. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3449299] 10748,2010,2,3,Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity under rainfed conditions in Cameroon-A method to improve attainable crop yields by planting date adaptations,Rainfed farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa are suffering from low productivity. Prolonged dry spells and droughts often lead to significant crop losses| a situation that is expected to be exacerbated by climate change. In this study| the impact of climate change on attainable yields of maize and groundnut| as major alimentary crops in sub-Saharan Africa| is evaluated at five stations in Cameroon under rainfed conditions. It is focussed on the contribution of future climate change in terms of the direct fertilisation effect of the expected CO(2) alteration and the indirect effects of the expected temperature and precipitation change. As improved agricultural management practices in rainfed systems are crucial to increase agricultural productivity| the impact of the planting date is analysed in detail. For this purpose| a fuzzy logic-based algorithm is developed to estimate the agriculturally relevant onset of the rainy season (ORS) and| thus| the optimal planting date. This algorithm is then connected to the physically based crop model CropSyst| hereinafter referred to as optimal planting date following crop modelling system. A Monte Carlo approach is used to optimise the ORS algorithm in terms of maximising the mean annual crop yields (1979-2003). The optimal planting date following crop modelling system is applied to past and future periods| mainly for two reasons: (i) to derive optimal fuzzy rules and increase mean attainable crop yields; and (ii) to reliably estimate the impact of climate change to crop productivity with ('optimal planting date scenario') and without planting date adaptations ('traditional planting date scenario'). It is shown that the fuzzy rules derived for assessing the optimal planting dates may allow for significantly increased crop yields compared to the existing planting rules in Cameroon under current climatic conditions| especially for the drier northern regions. A change in the climatic conditions due to global warming will reduce the growing cycle and| thus| the crop yields. However| the positive effect of CO(2) fertilisation is likely to outweigh the negative effects of precipitation and temperature change for the 2020s and partly for the 2080s. When additionally considering planting date adaptations| groundnut yield is expected to increase for the 2020s and the 2080s. with maximum yield surpluses of about 30% for the 2020s compared to the extended baseline period. For maize| crop yield is likely to increase (decrease) for the 2020s (2080s) by approximately 15%. For the driest stations analysed| the negative impacts of temperature and precipitation change could be mitigated significantly by planting date adaptations. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10834,2010,2,3,Impact of climate change on commercial sector air conditioning energy consumption in subtropical Hong Kong,Past and future trend of electricity use for air conditioning in the entire commercial sector in subtropical climates using 1979-2008 measured meteorological data as well as predictions for 2009-2100 from a general circulation model (MIROC3.2-H) was investigated. Air conditioning consumption showed an increasing trend over the past 30 years from 1979 to 2008. Principal component analysis (PCA) of measured and predicted monthly mean dry-bulb temperature| wet-bulb temperature and global solar radiation was conducted to determine a new climatic index Z for 1979-2008 and future 92 years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). Through regression analysis| electricity use in air conditioning for the 92-year period was estimated. For low forcing| average consumption in 2009-2038| 2039-2068 and 2069-2100 would be| respectively| 5.7%| 12.8% and 18.4% more than the 1979-2008 average| with a mean 12.5% increase for the entire 92-year period. Medium forcing showed a similar increasing trend| but 1-4% more. Standard deviations of the monthly air conditioning consumption were found to be smaller suggesting possible reduction in seasonal variations in future years. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10549,2010,2,4,Impact of climate change on irrigation requirements in terms of groundwater resources,Climate change affects not only water resources but also water demand for irrigation. A large proportion of the world's agriculture depends on groundwater| especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In several regions| aquifer resources face depletion. Groundwater recharge has been viewed as a by-product of irrigation return flow| and with climate change| aquifer storage of such flow will be vital. A general review| for a broad-based audience| is given of work on global warming and groundwater resources| summarizing the methods used to analyze the climate change scenarios and the influence of these predicted changes on groundwater resources around the world (especially the impact on regional groundwater resources and irrigation requirements). Future challenges of adapting to climate change are also discussed. Such challenges include water-resources depletion| increasing irrigation demand| reduced crop yield| and groundwater salinization. The adaptation to and mitigation of these effects is also reported| including useful information for water-resources managers and the development of sustainable groundwater irrigation methods. Rescheduling irrigation according to the season| coordinating the groundwater resources and irrigation demand| developing more accurate and complete modeling prediction methods| and managing the irrigation facilities in different ways would all be considered| based on the particular cases. 11237,2010,2,4,Impact of climate change on plant phenology in Mediterranean ecosystems,Plant phenology is strongly controlled by climate and has consequently become one of the most reliable bioindicators of ongoing climate change. We used a dataset of more than 200 000 records for six phenological events of 29 perennial plant species monitored from 1943 to 2003 for a comprehensive assessment of plant phenological responses to climate change in the Mediterranean region. Temperature| precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were studied together during a complete annual cycle before phenological events to determine their relative importance and potential seasonal carry-over effects. Warm and dry springs under a positive phase of NAO advance flowering| leaf unfolding and fruiting dates and lengthen the growing season. Spatial variability of dates (range among sites) was also reduced during warm and dry years| especially for spring events. Climate during previous weeks to phenophases occurrence had the greatest impact on plants| although all events were also affected by climate conditions several months before. Immediate along with delayed climate effects suggest dual triggers in plant phenology. Climatic models accounted for more than 80% of variability in flowering and leaf unfolding dates| and in length of the growing season| but for lower proportions in fruiting and leaf falling. Most part of year-to-year changes in dates was accounted for temperature| while precipitation and NAO accounted for < 10% of dates' variability. In the case of flowering| insect-pollinated species were better modelled by climate than wind-pollinated species. Differences in temporal responses of plant phenology to recent climate change are due to differences in the sensitivity to climate among events and species. Spring events are changing more than autumn events as they are more sensitive to climate and are also undergoing the greatest alterations of climate relative to other seasons. In conclusion| climate change has shifted plant phenology in the Mediterranean region. 685,2010,2,4,Impact of Elevated Levels of Atmospheric CO(2) and Herbivory on Flavonoids of Soybean (Glycine max Linnaeus),Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been increasing steadily over the last century. Plants grown under elevated CO(2) conditions experience physiological changes| particularly in phytochemical content| that can influence their suitability as food for insects. Flavonoids are important plant defense compounds and antioxidants that can have a large effect on leaf palatability and herbivore longevity. In this study| flavonoid content was examined in foliage of soybean (Glycine max Linnaeus) grown under ambient and elevated levels of CO(2) and subjected to damage by herbivores in three feeding guilds: leaf skeletonizer (Popillia japonica Newman)| leaf chewer (Vanessa cardui Linnaeus)| and phloem feeder (Aphis glycines Matsumura). Flavonoid content also was examined in foliage of soybean grown under ambient and elevated levels of O(3) and subjected to damage by the leaf skeletonizer P. japonica. The presence of the isoflavones genistein and daidzein and the flavonols quercetin and kaempferol was confirmed in all plants examined| as were their glycosides. All compounds significantly increased in concentration as the growing season progressed. Concentrations of quercetin glycosides were higher in plants grown under elevated levels of CO(2). The majority of compounds in foliage were induced in response to leaf skeletonization damage but remained unchanged in response to non-skeletonizing feeding or phloem-feeding. Most compounds increased in concentration in plants grown under elevated levels of O(3). Insects feeding on G. max foliage growing under elevated levels of CO(2) may derive additional antioxidant benefits from their host plants as a consequence of the change in ratios of flavonoid classes. This nutritional benefit could lead to increased herbivore longevity and increased damage to soybean (and perhaps other crop plants) in the future. 10591,2010,4,4,Impact of expected global warming on C mineralization in maritime Antarctic soils results of laboratory experiments,This study concerned the fragility of maritime Antarctic sods under increasing temperature using the C dynamics and structural characteristics of humic substances as indicators Working with four representative soils from King George Island (Lithic Thiomorphic Cryosol (LTC1 and LTC2) Ornithogenic Cryosol (OG) and Gelic Orginosol (ORG)) we evaluated the total organic C and nitrogen contents the oxidizable C and humic substances Sod samples were incubated to assess the amount of C potentially mineralizable at temperatures typical of an Antarctic summer (5-14 degrees C) Humic acids showed a higher aliphatic character and a smaller number of condensed aromatic groups which suggests that these molecules from Antarctic soils ale generally less resistant to microbial degradation than humic acids molecules from other regions Based on (13)C NMR spectra of MAS and CP/MAS samples of soil humic acids of mineral soils (LTC1 and LTC2) have a higher content of aliphatic C and heteroatom C with lower levels of carbonyl and aromatic C when comp wed with organic matter rich sods (OG and ORG) Increasing incubation temperature led to a higher rate of mineralizable C in 111 soils A sequence of soil fragility was suggested LTC1 and LTC2 > OG > ORG which showed a correlation with the Q10 coefficient and the ratio of labile and recalcitrant C fractions of soil organic matter (R(2) = 0 83) 11360,2010,2,3,Impact of global warming on beef cattle production cost in Brazil,Global warming is affecting agribusiness in its economic aspects. Therefore| the prediction of the evolution of Brazilian beef cattle production cost was made using the IPCC forecast scenario for global warming. The methodology consisted of two steps: (i) the development of a fuzzy model that estimated the grazing land capacity (RP) decrease risk as a function of the changes in the average total rain index| air temperature and increase in extension of the dry season; and (ii) the design of an algorithm for predicting the decrease in production as function of the RP fuzzy model| that results in the impact in beef cattle productivity| and consequent increase in production costs. Historical environmental data from important producing counties in the Cerrado were organized and a set of fuzzy Gaussian functions were developed| and three possible settings (optimistic| medium and pessimistic) were considered. The decrease in beef cattle productivity was estimated using the losses in production due to the increase in air temperature and vulnerability of pasture capacity. The boundary settings for the total increase of production cost scenario used the number of animals per area of grazing land| the adoption of grain supplement and its future scenario; and the result output function pointed to a threshold within a variation from an increase in production cost of 80% (optimistic) to 160% (pessimistic). Under the optimistic scenario the total cost of Brazilian beef cattle production in the Cerrado became near to US$ 2.88 kg(-1)| while in the pessimistic scenario this cost reached US$ 4.16 kg(-1)| challenging the international competitiveness of this economic segment. 10512,2010,2,4,Impact of global warming on cowpea bean cultivation in northeastern Brazil,This study evaluated the effects of climate change on cowpea bean crop grown in northeastern Brazil based on the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The water balance model combined with Geographic Information System techniques was used to identify regional areas where the cowpea bean crop will suffer yield reduction due to climate changes. Model input variables were: rainfall| crop coefficients| potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. A limit value of 0.5 was adopted for the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI)| being the ratio of actual to maximum evapotranspiration. The acceptable seeding date was defined as the date at which the water balance simulation presented a WRSI value greater than the limit value| with a frequency of at least 80%. An increase in air temperature will cause a significant reduction in the areas currently favorable to cowpea bean crop growth in northeastern Brazil| and it is recommended that bean varieties better suited to high-temperature conditions should be planted. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10414,2010,2,4,Impact of global warming on cyclonic storms over north Indian Ocean,The impact of global warming on the cyclonic storms over the north Indian Ocean have been studied using a suite of multiple datasets that includes the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis| the extended reconstruction sea surface temperature (ERSST) and tracks of storms over the north Indian Ocean for the period 1951 to 2007. Results suggest that the frequency of storms and severe storms do not show a dramatic rise in-spite of substantial increase in the sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal from 1951-2007 compared to the 1901-1951. This prompted us to conclude that| the frequency of storms is related to the changes in a couple of atmospheric parameters over the north Indian Ocean during the global warming period. It is identified that there is a large decrease in the mid-tropospheric humidity over the Bay of Bengal during the latter period (1951-2007). The relationship between the SST over the Bay of Bengal and the maximum wind speed of the cyclonic systems is complex and there is no preferred range for the formation of cyclonic or severe cyclonic storms over the north Indian Ocean. Examination of various aspects related to storms in the present study revealed that warm SST's alone are not sufficient for the initiation of convective systems over the Bay of Bengal. The present study thus suggests that atmospheric parameters| such as low-level vorticity| mid-tropospheric humidity and vertical wind shear| play an influential role on the genesis and intensification of storms over the north Indian Ocean. The present study assumes significance due to the large contribution of rainfall over India from storms that form over the north Indian Ocean during the summer and the winter monsoons. 11024,2010,2,4,IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE PHENOLOGY OF A VARIETY OF GRAPEVINE GROWN IN SOUTHERN CHILE,The trend to increased temperatures would lead to great changes in the development cycle of plants and style of agriculture in a particular locality. The effect of the temperatures projected by the IPCC on the phenology of Vitis vinifera (L.) Gewurtztraminer variety| in two areas of cold climate viticulture in southern Chile| was analyzed in this paper. A mathematical model was adjusted on phenology data and degree-days collected for two years. The model obtained was run with temperature data from current weather and those projected with the A2 and B2 scenarios for the period 2070-2100. The analysis of the results shows that local climate would present significant increases in the temperature sums (degree-days)| reducing up to 17 d the bud-burst to flowering period and between 28-46 d the period of sprouting to harvest| in the most extreme scenario. Phenology is very sensitive to global warming scenarios and probable climate change. Characterizing its possible behavior could serve as reference to define strategies for the future planning of a vineyard. 11537,2010,2,4,Impact of high temperature on pollen germination and spikelet sterility in rice: comparison between basmati and non-basmati varieties,Increased temperature due to global warming may reduce pollen germination and induce spikelet sterility in rice crops. Anthesis is the most sensitive stage in rice and exposure to high temperature during this period may cause reduction in. oral reproduction. Increased temperature will have different effects on different rice varieties. In the present study the effect of high temperature on pollen as well as on spikelet sterility in basmati (aromatic) and non-basmati (non-aromatic) rice varieties was quantified. Rice varieties were grown at 11 different sowing dates| to see the effect of varying temperature on pollen and spikelet sterility. Rise in temperature increased pollen sterility and reduced germination of pollen grains on the stigma. Temperature above 33 degrees C during anthesis gradually increased pollen sterility in all rice cultivars. At 35.5 degrees C| variety Pusa Sugandh 2 (basmati) recorded a pollen sterility of 17% and 26% reduction in pollen germination. The principal cause of sterility was reduced anther dehiscence and less pollen deposition on the stigma at higher temperature. Increased temperature during the grain-filling period also increased spikelet sterility in rice and variety Pusa Sugandh 2 was most affected. Non-basmati rice varieties were less affected by increased temperature than basmati types. The study indicated that increasing temperature could limit rice yield by affecting pollen germination and grain formation. It also suggested that sensitivity of pollen grains to temperature damage could be taken as one of the most important parameters for predicting rice yield in warmer climates. 11177,2010,2,4,Impact of inter- and intra-annual variation in weather parameters on mass balance and equilibrium line altitude of Naradu Glacier (Himachal Pradesh)| NW Himalaya| India,Glaciers in Himalaya have been studied with respect to their mass balance to assess their response| if any| to global warming. Naradu glacier in the Baspa Valley of Himachal Pradesh is one such glacier that has been studied in the backdrop of the impact of inter- and intra-annual variation in weather parameters on the health of glaciers. The trends in seasonal and monthly mean temperatures from 1994 to 2003 show an interesting shift of peak summer (late August-September) and winter seasons (February-March). The data also suggest night warming during summer (June| August| and September) and winter (November| January| April)| and cooling during peak summer seasons (July) and very cold during winter (December| February| March). The fluctuation in ELA| snout position and surface ablation of Naradu glacier is attributed to variation in albedo of rock debris and valley walls from season to season and year to year. 10822,2010,2,3,Impact of land-use types on soil nitrogen net mineralization in the sandstorm and water source area of Beijing| China,Changes of land-use type (LUT) can affect soil nutrient pools and cycling processes that relate long-term sustainability of ecosystem| and can also affect atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and global warming through soil respiration. We conducted a comparative study to determine NH(4)(+) and NO(3)(-) concentrations in soil profiles (0-200 cm) and examined the net nitrogen (N) mineralization and net nitrification in soil surface (0-20 cm) of adjacent naturally regenerated secondary forests (NSF)| man-made forests (MMF)| grasslands and cropland soils from the windy arid and semi-arid Hebei plateau| the sandstorm and water source area of Beijing| China. Cropland and grassland soils showed significantly higher inorganic N concentrations than forest soils. NO(3)(-)-N accounted for 50-90% of inorganic N in cropland and grassland soils| while NH(4)(+)-N was the main form of inorganic N in NSF and MMF soils. Average net N-mineralization rates (mg kg(-1) d(-1)) were much higher in native ecosystems (1.51 for NSF soils and 1.24 for grassland soils) than in human disturbed LUT (0.15 for cropland soils and 0.85 for MMF soils). Net ammonification was low in all the LUT while net nitrification was the major process of net N mineralization. For more insight in urea transformation| the increase in NH(4)(+) and| NO(3)(-) concentrations as well as C mineralization after urea addition was analyzed on whole soils. Urea application stimulated the net soil C mineralization and urea transformation pattern was consistent with net soil N mineralization| except that the rate was slightly slower. Land-use conversion from NSF to MMF| or from grassland to cropland decreased soil net N mineralization| but increased net nitrification after 40 years or 70 years| respectively. The observed higher rates of net nitrification suggested that land-use conversions in the Hebei plateau might lead to N losses in the form of nitrate. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 479,2010,2,4,Impact of technology advances on China's CO(2) emission reduction,Global warming tends to be the major characteristics of the dramatic global climate change. To deal with these changes| the impact of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission on Chinese future economic and social development has to be assessed. In this paper| a Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)| which is well known and accepted widely| has been used for Chinese economic assessment of climate change after introduction| assimilation and verification. Based on a sensitivity analysis of technical parameters in the RICE model and constrained targets proposed for energy saving and emissions reduction technological advance programs of China from 2000 to 2050| the economic impact of the programs is examined. The results indicate that when technology advances| Chinese CO(2) emission| climate loss| and the growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and temperature will all decrease. It is assumed that in 2010| the CO(2) emission is 20% lower than in 2005| CO(2) emission in 2050 would only double the level in 2000| the accumulative CO(2) emission would be decreased by 12.4 GtC| and the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and temperature in 2050 would reduce by 35 GtC and 0.04A degrees C respectively from 2000 to 2050. The accumulative climate loss from 2000 to 2050 will drop down by 4.6 billion dollar| which only accounts for 6% of the global total benefits. However| the economic benefit the developed countries will obtain is 10 times that for China under such a technological advance scenario. The decrease of the CO(2) emission control rate is 1% in cooperation policy while 4.6% in non-cooperation policy| which would relieve China's burden in the control of CO(2) total emission and thereby benefit China in participation of the international cooperation for CO(2) emission reduction. 11205,2010,2,4,Impact of temperature on an emerging parasitic association between a sperm-feeding scuticociliate and Northeast Pacific sea stars,Global warming has important implications for the dynamics and ecological impacts of emerging diseases. We investigated temperature effects on scuticociliate| Orchitophrya cf. stellarum| infections in ripe testes of two Pacific northeast sea stars (Asterina miniata Brandt and Pisaster ochraceus Brandt) using laboratory and field approaches. We predicted that a small increase in temperature would result in higher ciliate growth rates and heightened infection intensities. To test this we (1) cultured free-living O. stellarum at 10 and 15 degrees C and quantified ciliate abundance after 3 days| and (2) housed sea stars of both species at 10 and 15 degrees C for durations varying from 4 to 21 days and then measured the infection intensity. Ciliate densities in cultures were two orders of magnitude higher in the warmer treatment. Infection intensity was also temperature sensitive: greater proportions of testes were infected and infection stage was more advanced at 15 versus 10 degrees C| leading to a reduction in spermatozoa and regression of the germinal layer within three weeks. In seven field populations surveyed| we found a tight linear correlation between infection prevalence (percent infected sea stars) and infection intensity (proportion of infected testes per individual and mean infection score). However| 45% of P. ochraceus testes exhibited heavy infections versus 8% of A. miniata testes| which may relate to the different thermal habitat of each species: P. ochraceus occurs higher on the shore and likely reaches higher body temperatures at low tide. While the sex ratio of A miniata is unbiased| A ochraceus populations are consistently female-biased and show no relationship to infection prevalence (ranged from 30 to 90%). O. cf stellarum infections of testes of both sea stars are prevalent in field populations| are highly temperature sensitive| and lead to rapid loss of reproductive potential. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 702,2010,2,4,Impacts of Climate Change on Narragansett Bay,The objective of this paper is to examine the impacts of global climate change on Rhode Island's coastal ecosystems. Average annual air temperature in Rhode Island has increased by 1.7 degrees C since 1880| water temperatures of Narragansett Bay have increased by 1.2 degrees C since 1950| precipitation increased 27% between 1895 and 1999| and sea level rose 0.13 m between 1931 and 2007. We can already see the effects of these climatic changes on the Narragansett Bay ecosystem| including ecological changes in the Bay's food web from phytoplankton and zooplankton to fish| e.g.| changes in phenology of seasonal phytoplankton blooms and dominant fish species (e.g.| Pseudopleuronectes umericanus [Winter Flounder]). These climatic changes have increased freshwater inputs and the concomitant pollutant loads into the Bay. Rising sea level has contributed to ongoing erosion of the coast and has put waterfront homes at increased risk. It is imperative to continue monitoring these effects. 368,2010,2,2,Impacts of climate change on winter wheat growth in Panzhuang Irrigation District| Shandong Province,Global climate change has significant impacts on agricultural production. Future climate change will bring important influences to the food security. The CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate the winter wheat growing process and production in Panzhuang Irrigation District (PID) during 2011-2040 under B2 climate scenario based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) assumptions with the result of RCMs (Regional Climate Models) projections by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) system introduced to China from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. The CERES-Wheat model was calibrated and validated with independent field-measured growth data in 2002-2003 and 2007-2008 growing season under current climatic conditions at Yucheng Comprehensive Experimental Station (YCES)| Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). The results show that a significant impact of climate change on crop growth and yield was noted in the PID study area. Average temperature at Yucheng Station rose by 0.86 degrees C for 1961-2008 in general. Under the B2 climate scenario| average temperature rose by 0.55 degrees C for 2011-2040 compared with the baseline period (1998-2008)| which drastically shortened the growth period of winter-wheat. However| as the temperature keep increasing after 2030| the top-weight and yield of the winter wheat will turn to decrease. The simulated evapotranspiration shows an increasing trend| although it is not very significant| during 2011-2040. Water use efficiency will increase during 2011-2031| but decrease during 2031-2040. The results indicate that climate change enhances agricultural production in the short-term| whereas continuous increase in temperature limits crop production in the long-term. 10772,2010,2,2,Impacts of climate changes on crop physiology and food quality,Carbon emissions related to human activities have been significantly contributing to the elevation of atmospheric [CO(2)] and temperature. More recently| carbon emissions have greatly accelerated| thus much stronger effects on crops are expected. Here| we revise literature data concerning the physiological effects of CO(2) enrichment and temperature rise on crop species. We discuss the main advantages and limitations of the most used CO(2)-enrichment technologies| the Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) and the Free-Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE). Within the conditions expected for the next few years| the physiological responses of crops suggest that they will grow faster| with slight changes in development| such as flowering and fruiting| depending on the species. There is growing evidence suggesting that C(3) crops are likely to produce more harvestable products and that both C(3) and C(4) crops are likely to use less water with rising atmospheric [CO(2)] in the absence of stressful conditions. However| the beneficial direct impact of elevated [CO(2)] on crop yield can be offset by other effects of climate change| such as elevated temperatures and altered patterns of precipitation. Changes in food quality in a warmer| high-CO(2) world are to be expected| e.g.| decreased protein and mineral nutrient concentrations| as well as altered lipid composition. We point out that studies related to changes in crop yield and food quality as a consequence of global climatic changes should be priority areas for further studies| particularly because they will be increasingly associated with food security. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11133,2010,2,4,Impacts of Climate Warming on Alpine Glacier Tourism and Adaptive Measures: A Case Study of Baishui Glacier No. 1 in Yulong Snow Mountain| Southwestern China,Alpine glaciers usually feature with best hydrothermal condition in mountain climate| and present beautiful glacier scenery| various glacier landforms| rich biodiversity| and easier accessibility| compared with continental glaciers or ice sheets. Nevertheless| Alpine glaciers are more sensitive to climate warming| and climate warming has seriously affected Alpine glaciers and surrounding environment. The quality and attractiveness of Alpine glaciers to tourism has been and will continue to be diminished with tourists' visitation and local economic development. At present| it has become a primary problem that Alpine glacier tourism adapts to climate warming. Based on this reason| the purpose of this article is to take Baishui (sic) Glacier No. 1 as an example to outline the possible impacts of climate warming on Alpine glacier tourism and put forward some adaptive measures and strategies aligned with climate warming. Specific measures are as follows: (1) optimize the space layout of glacier tourism area; (2) improve glacier tourism and environmental protection planning; (3) adopt multidimensional protective measures; (4) strengthen scientific research of glacier and environment protection; (5) develop glacier tourism products by multi-directions; (6) integrate regional tourism resources; (7) reinforce public environmental education. 10837,2010,2,3,Impacts of environmental variability and global warming scenario on Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) spawning grounds and recruitment habitat,Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) have spawning grounds in waters stretching from south of Okinawa to east of Taiwan. This species is typical of fishes that spawn seasonally in small| limited areas. Any marked change in the marine environment of the spawning grounds is likely to have a direct impact on larval survival and growth. We conducted rearing experiments on larvae to investigate these impacts and found that a reduction in temperature resulted in poor growth during the juvenile stage| even if larval survival rates did not change. In the wild| this reduced growth rate is likely to reduce survival rates because smaller juveniles have poorer swimming ability and their ability to avoid predators is also reduced. This is especially important since the Kuroshio current| which connects the spawning grounds to the nursery grounds| transports larvae rapidly because of its faster surface current (the western boundary current)| thus larvae arriving too quickly in coastal waters can be exposed to very cold temperatures. An ocean model (MIROC) simulation under a climate warming scenario (IPCC| 2007) predicted that the temperature in the spawning ground would be 3 degrees C higher in 2100 than in present time| while the transport to nursery grounds would also be faster. In this case| the combination of several mechanisms would control the recruitment of juvenile bluefin. On the spawning grounds| high temperatures exceeding the optimal range would increase larvae mortality and any surviving larvae would reach the nursery grounds more quickly| but warmer coastal waters would have less negative impact on their growth. We forced a model of larval drift with MIROC output fields to study the complex response of bluefin tuna recruitment. As a result| the predicted survival rates of larvae arriving in Japanese coastal waters in 2100 would decline to 36% of present recruitment levels. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10838,2010,4,4,Implement of filter to remove the autocorrelation's influence on the Mann-Kendall test: A case in hydrological series,The available water resources are becoming depleted due to the global warming| economic development| ecological degradation and population expansion. In order to optimally manage the water resources| plentiful statistical methods were applied to detect the characteristics of hydrological time series. Mann-Kendall (MK) test is one of the most popular statistical techniques| which can show detailed changing trends and abrupt change for the hydrological time series. However| the autocorrelation of hydrological time series inflates the variance of the estimated mean and decrease effective sample size| and consequently influences the results of the MK test. In order to remove the autocorrelation of time series| the paper firstly described the calculation of MK test and autocorrelation in detail| and put forward the filter processes with 5 steps: (1) detecting the autocorrelation of time series; (2) detrending the time series; (3) calculating the parameters of autoregressive (AR) model; (4) removing AR component and (5) combining post-AR series and "pure trend component". Finally| the paper integrated with a concrete hydrological case. It is found the filter processes are an effective procedure to remove the autocorrelation of time series| and it was still demonstrated the differences of MK results when facing the original hydrological time series and the series after filter processes. 10715,2010,2,4,Implications of a Decadal Climate Shift over East Asia in Winter: A Modeling Study,This study investigates a decadal climate shift over East Asia in winter| focusing on the changes in hydrological cycle as well as large-scale circulation using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The RSM is forced by perfect boundary conditions for winter (December-February) from 1979 to 2007. Analyses for two separate periods (1979-87 and 1999-2007) are performed to investigate the regional climate model's ability to simulate climate change in precipitation as well as large-scale circulation. The RSM reproduces differences in large-scale features associated with winter climate change over East Asia when the winter monsoon is modulated on decadal time scales with its weakening pattern observed since the late 1980s. The model adequately reproduces a weakening of the Siberian high and shallowness of the Aleutian low in the lower troposphere and a weakened East Asian coastal trough and East Asian jet in the upper troposphere during 1999-2007| as compared to the first nine winters of 1979-87. Conversely| the decadal shift in precipitation is not well reproduced by the model. The model is capable of reproducing the power spectrum of daily precipitation with maxima at 8.5 days and 45 days in 1979-87| whereas widely spread peaks in 1999-2007 are not captured. The increase of precipitation due to parameterized convection is prominent. This study shows that the dynamical numerical model has a limited capability to reproduce the wintertime hydrological climate over East Asia associated with global warming in recent years. 10518,2010,2,4,Implications of climate change for the reproductive capacity and survival of New World silversides (family Atherinopsidae),The New World silversides (family Atherinopsidae) are found in marine| estuarine and inland waters of North| Central and South America| where they are ecologically important as forage fishes and sometimes economically important for commercial and recreational fisheries. This report reviews the knowledge of the reproductive attributes of temperate and subtropical atherinopsids in relation to temperature and discusses the potential effects of climate change on their reproduction and adaptive responses. Their reproductive cycles are primarily entrained by photoperiod with high temperature acting as a limiting factor. They are generally multiple spawners which release successive batches of eggs in spring| but some species can spawn also in autumn and even summer when temperatures do not increase excessively. The decoupling of temperature patterns and photoperiod with further global warming and associated asymmetric thermal fluctuations could lead to spawning at times or temperatures that are unsuitable for larval development and growth. Many members of this family show temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD)| where the phenotypic sex of an individual is determined partly or wholly by the temperature experienced during gonadal sex differentiation| and high-temperature induced germ cell degeneration and decreased fertility. The predicted short-term reproductive responses of atherinopsids to climate change therefore include acceleration| shortening or overall disruption of spawning activity| and also more subtle| but nonetheless equally population-threatening| dysfunctions such as highly skewed sex ratios and partial or total loss of fertility. In the case of species with TSD| asymmetric thermal fluctuations could also cause larvae to encounter temperatures lower than normal during early development and be feminized. Such dysfunctions have been documented already in natural populations but are confined so far to landlocked| inland water habitats| perhaps because they impose more severe thermal fluctuations and limitations to migration and dispersal. The severity and recurrence of these dysfunctions with further climate change will depend both on the magnitude| speed and pattern of change and on how much (or how fast) physiological and behavioural traits can evolve to match the new conditions imposed by the climate| which is largely unknown. In this regard| compelling evidence is shown that numerous traits| including the sex determination system| are capable of rapid evolution and could mitigate the negative effects of temperature increases on population viability in atherinopsids. 11006,2010,2,4,Implications of climate-driven variability and trends for the hydrologic assessment of the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed| Idaho,The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the implications of long-term climate trends for the hydroclimatology of the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in the Owyhee Mountains| Idaho of the Intermountain West over a 40-year period (1967-2006). Calibration and validation of the macroscale hydrology model in this highly monitored watershed is key to address the watershed processes that are vulnerable to both natural climate variability and climate change. The model was calibrated using the streamflow data collected between 1997 and 2006 from the three nested weirs| the Reynolds Mountain East (RME)| Tollgate and Outlet. For assessing the performance of the calibrated model| this study used 30 years of streamflow data for the period between 1966 and 1996. This investigation suggested that the model predicted streamflow was best at RME| and inadequate at Outlet. Simulated soil moisture was also verified using the data available from five soil moisture measurement sites. The model was able to capture the seasonal patterns of changes in soil water storage considering the differences in the spatial extent of the observed and predicted soil water storage (point measurements against the spatially averaged values for the HRU) and uncertainty associated with the soil moisture measurements due to instrument effects. Water budget partitioning during a wet (1984) water year and a dry (1987) water year were also analyzed to characterize the differences in hydrologic cycles during the extreme hydrologic conditions. Our analysis showed that in the dry water year| vegetation at the higher elevation were under water stress by the end of the water year. Contrastingly| in the wet water year only the vegetation at low and mid-elevations were under water stress whereas vegetation at the higher elevations derived substantial soil moisture for ET processes even towards the end of the growing season. To understand the effect of climate change on the hydrologic cycle| the observed and simulated streamflow were analyzed for trends in Center of Timing (CT). Earlier CT timings for the simulated and observed streamflow at RME weir was obvious thus manifesting global warming signals at the watershed scale level in the Intermountain west region. Observed streamflow at the Tollgate and Outlet weirs| where streamflow is partially affected by the agricultural diversions| showed later CT timings and these results appeared to suggest that climate impact assessment studies need to carefully distinguish the system behavior that is altered by both natural and human-induced changes. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10736,2010,2,4,Implications of temperature and sediment characteristics on methane formation and oxidation in lake sediments,Methane emissions from aquatic environments depend on methane formation (MF) and methane oxidation (MO) rates. One important question is to what extent increased temperatures will affect the balance between MF and MO. We measured potential MF and MO rates simultaneously at 4| 10| 20 and 30A degrees C in sediment from eight different lakes representing typical boreal and northern temperate lake types. Potential MF rates ranged between 0.002 and 3.99 mu mol CH(4) g(d.w.) (-1) day(-1)| potential MO rates ranged from 0.01 to 0.39 CH(4) g(d.w.) (-1) day(-1). The potential MF rates were sensitive to temperature and increased 10 to 100 fold over the temperature interval studied. MF also differed between lakes and was correlated to sediment water content| percent of organic material and C:N ratio. Potential MO did not depend on temperature or sediment characteristics but was instead well explained by MF rates at the in situ temperature. It implies that elevated temperatures will enhance MF rates which may cause increased methane release from sediments until MO increases as well| as a response to higher methane levels. 10997,2010,2,3,Importance of carbon dioxide physiological forcing to future climate change,An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration influences climate both directly through its radiative effect (i.e.| trapping longwave radiation) and indirectly through its physiological effect (i.e.| reducing transpiration of land plants). Here we compare the climate response to radiative and physiological effects of increased CO(2) using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled Community Land and Community Atmosphere Model. In response to a doubling of CO(2)| the radiative effect of CO(2) causes mean surface air temperature over land to increase by 2.86 +/- 0.02 K (+/-1 standard error)| whereas the physiological effects of CO(2) on land plants alone causes air temperature over land to increase by 0.42 +/- 0.02 K. Combined| these two effects cause a land surface warming of 3.33 +/- 0.03 K. The radiative effect of doubling CO(2) increases global runoff by 5.2 +/- 0.6%| primarilyby increasing precipitation over the continents. The physiological effect increases runoff by 8.4 +/- 0.6%| primarily by diminishing evapotranspiration from the continents. Combined| these two effects cause a 14.9 +/- 0.7% increase in runoff. Relative humidity remains roughly constant in response to CO(2)-radiative forcing| whereas relative humidity over land decreases in response to CO(2)-physiological forcing as a result of reduced plant transpiration. Our study points to an emerging consensus that the physiological effects of increasing atmospheric CO(2) on land plants will increase global warming beyond that caused by the radiative effects of CO(2). 10902,2010,2,4,Improvement of sweating model in 2-Node Model and its application to thermal safety for hot environments,Recently| due to global warming and the heat-island effect| more and more people are exposed to the dangers of heat disorders. A hot thermal environment can be evaluated using various indices| such as new Standard Effective Temperature (SET.) using the 2-Node Model (2 NM)| Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT)| Predicted Heat Strain (PHS) model| and so on. The authors aim to develop a safety evaluation approach for hot environments. Subject experiments are performed in a laboratory to comprehend the physiological response of the human body. The results are compared with the computed values from the 2 NM and PHS models| and improved the sweating model in 2 NM in order to take into account the relationship with metabolic rate. A demonstration is provided of using the new sweating model for evaluating thermal safety in a hot environment. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 704,2010,2,4,Improving water use efficiency in grapevines: potential physiological targets for biotechnological improvement,Improving water use efficiency (WUE) in grapevines is essential for vineyard sustainability under the increasing aridity induced by global climate change. WUE reflects the ratio between the carbon assimilated by photosynthesis and the water lost in transpiration. Maintaining stomata partially closed by regulated deficit irrigation or partial root drying represents an opportunity to increase WUE| although at the expense of decreased photosynthesis and| potentially| decreased yield. It would be even better to achieve increases in WUE by improving photosynthesis without increasing water loses. Although this is not yet possible| it could potentially be achieved by genetic engineering. This review presents current knowledge and relevant results that aim to improve WUE in grapevines by biotechnology and genetic engineering. The expected benefits of these manipulations on WUE of grapevines under water stress conditions are modelled. There are two main possible approaches to achieve this goal: (i) to improve CO(2) diffusion to the sites of carboxylation without increasing stomatal conductance; and (ii) to improve the carboxylation efficiency of Ribulose-1|5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco). The first goal could be attained by increasing mesophyll conductance to CO(2)| which partly depends on aquaporins. The second approach could be achieved by replacing Rubisco from grapevine with Rubiscos from other C(3) species with higher specificity for CO(2). In summary| the physiological bases and future prospects for improving grape yield and WUE under drought are established. 10803,2010,3,3,Including CO(2)-emission equivalence of changes in land surface albedo in life cycle assessment. Methodology and case study on greenhouse agriculture,Climate change impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA) are usually assessed as the emissions of greenhouse gases expressed with the global warming potential (GWP). However| changes in surface albedo caused by land use change can also contribute to change the Earth's energy budget. In this paper we present a methodology for including in LCA the climatic impacts of land surface albedo changes| measured as CO(2)-eq. emissions or emission offsets. A review of studies calculating radiative forcings and CO(2)-equivalence of changes in surface albedo is carried out. A methodology is proposed| and some methodological issues arising from its application are discussed. The methodology is applied in a practical example dealing with greenhouse agriculture in Southern Spain. The results of the case study show that the increase in surface albedo due to the reflective plastic cover of greenhouses involves an important CO(2)-eq. emission offset| which reduces the net GWP-100 of tomato production from 303 to 168 kg CO(2)-eq. per ton tomato when a 50-year service time is considered for the agricultural activity. This example shows that albedo effects can be very important in a product system when land use plays an important role| and substantial changes in surface albedo are involved. Although the method presented in this work can be improved concerning the calculation of radiative forcing| it constitutes a first operative approach which can be used to develop regionalized characterization factors and provide a more complete evaluation of impacts on the climate change impact category. 11055,2010,3,4,Inclusion of the variability of diffuse pollutions in LCA for agriculture: the case of slurry application techniques,LCAs (life cycle assessments) are often based on average data to produce a generic evaluation of a good or service. However| ignoring variability and induced uncertainty of LCA results reduces their significance| especially when dealing with agricultural processes that present high natural fluctuations. The objective of the study was to explore the robustness of LCA results when accounting for variable emissions data| illustrated by the case of slurry application techniques. Four application techniques were compared: band spreading| broadcast spreading| harrowing after surface application and direct injection. On the basis of the normalisation results| acidification| eutrophication and global warming potentials were selected. To estimate field nitrogen emissions| an original approach was developed based on relative nitrogen loss factors for each technique from a literature review. The calculated field emissions from different soil and climate conditions were considered equally probable and were propagated into a range of LCA result using the Monte Carlo method. Injection and harrowing both showed reduced acidification and eutrophication potentials compared to band spreading and broadcast spreading but had larger global warming potentials| which could be particularly important with injection. Harrowing consequently appeared as the best compromise. Despite the large range of LCA results| robust conclusions could be drawn. To achieve a more refined comparison between the techniques| the use of process-based models in contrasted situations is suggested. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11533,2010,3,3,Incorporating Bicycle and Pedestrian Topics in University Transportation Courses A National Scan,The focus on context-sensitive design in roadway planning| increased support for addressing public health objectives through transportation and land use planning| and concerns about oil dependence and global warming are growing. Combined| these factors have raised expectations for transportation engineering and planning practitioners to possess more knowledge and skills related to pedestrian and bicycle planning and design. This demand requires more education on these topics. This paper reports on the findings of a survey of 86 university faculty members about the inclusion of bicycle and pedestrian topics in their transportation courses. Of the 134 transportation courses taught by respondents| 59% included bicycle or pedestrian topics| or both. However| because of potential response bias| the findings might be an optimistic assessment of the coverage of bicycle and pedestrian topics in current curricula. Just over half (52%) of the civil engineering courses included only 1 to 2 h of class time on the topics| whereas all of the courses in planning programs offered at least 3 h on the topics. The topics covered most often were pedestrian safety| pedestrian and bicycle planning| and pedestrian and bicycle facility design. At least 43% of the faculty were interested in course materials on pedestrian and bicycle topics that they could incorporate into existing courses. PowerPoint and lecture materials were the most commonly requested types of materials. 652,2010,3,4,Incorporating water production into forest management planning: a case study in Yalnizcam planning unit,Currently| because of water scarcity created by global climate change| integrating of water values provided from forest ecosystem into forest management planning has become great important. This research integrated water values into forest management planning and explained their effects on forest dynamics. Model outputs as Net Present Value (NPV) and amounts of timber and water were used as performance indicators. The results showed that water production aimed strategies (*W) provided minimum timber production while timber production aimed strategies (*T) obtained minimum water production. Results also showed that reforestation of Forest Openings (FO) provide high timber and low water production. 11330,2010,2,2,Increased greenhouse gases enhance regional climate response to a Maunder Minimum,The climate responses to the Maunder Minimum-type total solar irradiance (TSI) decrease in the pre-industrial (PI) era and IPCC B1 global warming scenario are examined using the NCAR CAM3 coupled with a mixed-layer slab ocean model. The TSI reduction shifts the AO/NAO state to a more negative index| resulting in regional surface air temperature (SAT) change in the model. In addition| the positive sea ice-solar radiation feedback amplifies the surface cooling due to the TSI decrease. The global annual average cooling effect induced by the TSI decrease is reduced to 0.254 degrees C in the B1 scenario from 0.347 degrees C in the PI epoch| this difference being due to both the suppressed sea ice-solar radiation feedback and the stronger greenhouse effect associated with the increase of greenhouse gases. However| regional SAT changes in the B1 scenario are strengthened markedly due to the enhanced negative AO/NAO. The warming in the western Greenland| Central Asia and East Asia will be enhanced in the B1 global warming scenario when the TSI decreases. These differences in response between the B1 and PI scenarios illustrate that the impact of multi-decadal solar variation on climate depends on the atmospheric background trace gas composition. A future solar grand minimum does not offset the CO(2)-induced warming in the B1 scenario| but through the enhanced negative AO/NAO may indeed amplify the warming in certain regions. Citation: Song| X.| D. Lubin| and G. J. Zhang (2010)| Increased greenhouse gases enhance regional climate response to a Maunder Minimum| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L01703| doi: 10.1029/2009GL041290. 11253,2010,2,4,Increased mortality can promote evolutionary adaptation of forest trees to climate change,Forecasts of rapid climate change raise the question how quickly species can evolutionarily adapt to future climates. The adaptability of forest trees to environmental changes is generally promoted by high levels of genetic diversity and gene flow| but it can also be slowed down by long generation times and low mortality of established trees. Here| we investigate the adaptation of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Silver birch (Betula pendula) to climate change induced prolongation of the thermal growing season. We use quantitative genetic individual-based simulations to disentangle the relative roles of mortality| dispersal ability and maturation age for the speed of adaptation. The simulations predict that after 100 years of climate change| the genotypic growth period length of both species will lag more than 50% behind the climatically determined optimum. This lag is reduced by increased mortality of established trees| whereas earlier maturation and higher dispersal ability had comparatively minor effects. The evolutionary lag behind environmental change shown in our simulations stresses the importance of accounting for evolutionary processes in forecasts of the future dynamics and productivity of forests. Sensitivity of the adaptation speed to mortality suggests that species experiencing high mortality rates as well as populations subject to regular disturbances such as storms or fires might be the quickest to adapt to a warming climate. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10600,2010,2,4,Increased seawater temperature and decreased dissolved oxygen triggers fish kill at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands| Indian Ocean,At the Cocos (Keeling) Islands in the north-eastern Indian Ocean > 592 fishes from at least 11 species died in a series of events in December 2007| January and February 2008 and April 2009. The dead fishes were from a wide range of taxonomic families| indicating that conditions exceeded the tolerances of a broad array of species. The 2007-2008 die-off events occurred on the warmest and calmest days of a significantly warmer and calmer summer. Fishes died in the southern inshore areas of the coral atoll lagoon at survey sites where seawater temperature was highest (33-35 degrees C) and dissolved oxygen was lowest (1 center dot 4-1 center dot 8 mg l-1). The water temperature at these fish-kill survey sites (33-35 degrees C) was significantly warmer than previous years (1997 to 2005| mean +/- s.e. = 28 center dot 7 +/- 0 center dot 1 degrees C). Fishes probably died because they were unable to obtain the additional oxygen required for metabolism at higher temperatures. Repeated die-off events over the last 130 years indicate that some fishes have not yet adapted to rises in seawater temperature. This study provides empirical evidence to support suggestions that differences in physiological tolerances to increasing sea temperatures may be important in determining the structure of future coral-reef fish communities with respect to climate change. 10588,2010,2,4,Increased Temperature Due to Global Warming Alters the Respiratory Potential in Aquatic Organisms from an Oligotrophic Lake,The influence of elevated temperature was studied on the respiratory potential of a microplankton community| two macrophytes species (Myriophyllum spicatum and Chara aspera)| and sediments| all from an oligotrophic lake| in order to estimate their susceptibility to temperature change. Samples collected in winter| spring| summer and autumn were incubated at three different temperatures. The respiratory potential| measured as electron transport system (ETS) activity at a standard temperature of 20 degrees C was| in average| greater at higher incubation temperatures for 117% in microplankton and for 30% in sediments| indicating that elevated temperature influenced the respiratory capacity of the microbial communities for mineralization of organic matter through respiration. The large increases of respiratory potential in winter microplankton community (for 184% at the highest incubation temperature compared to the temperatures of the multiyear period) and spring microplankton community (190%)| and in spring sediment (64%) reveal that those communities are most susceptible to elevated temperatures during the coldest period of a year and at the beginning of lake warming. The respiratory activity of Myriophyllum spicatum was independent of incubation temperature| indicating its wide physiological tolerance. The lower respiratory potential at higher temperatures in Chara aspera optimized the use of energy in plants. 696,2010,2,4,Increases in Growing Degree Days in the Alpine Desert of the San Luis Valley| Colorado,Most alpine ecosystem climate change studies identify changes in biota| several report abiotic factors and conditions| few report temperature changes| and few to none discuss growing degree days (GDD) changes. This study provides results of data analysis on changes in number of GDD in the alpine desert of the San Luis Valley (SLV) whose community is dominated by an irrigated agricultural region. Analysis indicates significant increases (p < 0.05) in annual and growing season GDD(10)| GDD(4.4) (potato)| and GDD(5.5) (alfalfa) during 1994-2007 compared to 1958-1993. With one exception| all stations experienced significant increases in mean annual daily GDD between 0.12 and 0.50 day(-2) and growing season GDD day(-2) 0.21 and 0.81. Higher temperatures increase numbers of GDD| quickening growth of crops and maturity at the cost of reduced yield and quality. Increases in GDD indicate the Valley's agricultural region and economy may experience negative impacts as yields decrease and water use increases. 10389,2010,4,4,Increasing atmospheric poleward energy transport with global warming,Most state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) project an increase in atmospheric poleward energy transport with global warming; however| the amount of increase varies significantly from model to model. Using an energy balance model that diffuses moist static energy| it is shown that: (1) the increase in atmospheric moisture content causes most of the increase in transport| and (2) changes in the radiation budget due to clouds explain most of the spread among GCMs. This work also shows that biases in clouds| surface albedo| ocean heat uptake| and aerosols will not only affect climate locally but will also influence other latitudes through energy transport. Citation: Hwang| Y.-T.| and D. M. W. Frierson (2010)| Increasing atmospheric poleward energy transport with global warming| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L24807| doi:10.1029/2010GL045440. 403,2010,2,4,Increasing water productivity on Vertisols: implications for environmental sustainability,BACKGROUND: The availability and quality of irrigation water have become a serious concern because of global climate change and an increased competition for water by industry| domestic users and the environment. Therefore| exploring environmentally friendly water-saving irrigation strategies is essential for achieving food and environmental security. In northern Ethiopia| where traditional furrow irrigation is widely practiced| water mismanagement and its undesirable environmental impact are rampant. A 2-year field study was undertaken to compare the traditional irrigation management with surge and deficit irrigation practices on a Vertisol plot. RESULT: Results have shown that surge and deficit irrigation practices increase water productivity by 62% and 58%| respectively| when compared to traditional management. The study also found out that these practices reduce the adverse environmental impacts (waterlogging and salinity) of traditional management by minimizing deep percolation and tail water losses. Total irrigation depth was reduced by 12% (for surge) and 27% (for deficit) when compared to traditional management. CONCLUSION: Based on the results| the study concluded that surge and deficit irrigation technologies not only improve water productivity but also enhance environmental sustainability. (C) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry 10534,2010,2,4,Increasing water temperature and disease risks in aquatic systems: Climate change increases the risk of some| but not all| diseases,Global warming may impose severe risks for aquatic animal health if increasing water temperature leads to an increase in the incidence of parasitic diseases. Essentially| this could take place through a temperature-driven effect on the epidemiology of the disease. For example| higher temperature may boost the rate of disease spread through positive effects on parasite fitness in a weakened host. Increased temperature may also lengthen the transmission season leading to higher total prevalence of infection and more widespread epidemics. However| to date| general understanding of these relationships is limited due to scarcity of long-term empirical data. Here| we present one of the first long-term multi-pathogen data sets on the occurrence of pathogenic bacterial and parasitic infections in relation to increasing temperatures in aquatic systems. We analyse a time-series of disease dynamics on two fish farms in northern Finland from 1986 to 2006. We first demonstrate that the annual mean water temperature increased significantly on both farms over the study period and that the increase was most pronounced in the late summer (July-September). Second| we show that the prevalence of infection (i.e. proportion of fish tanks infected each year) increased with temperature. Interestingly| this pattern was observed in some of the diseases (Ichthyophthirius multifiliis| Flavobacterium columnare)| whereas in the other diseases| the pattern was the opposite (Ichthyobodo necator) or absent (Chilodonella spp.). These results demonstrate the effect of increasing water temperature on aquatic disease dynamics| but also emphasise the importance of the biology of each disease| as well as the role of local conditions| in determining the direction and magnitude of these effects. (c) 2010 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved| 11227,2010,2,3,Indian Ocean Dipole Response to Global Warming: Analysis of Ocean-Atmospheric Feedbacks in a Coupled Model,Low-frequency modulation and change under global warming of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode are investigated with a pair of multicentury integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model: one under constant climate forcing and one forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. In the unforced simulation| there is significant decadal and multidecadal modulation of the IOD variance. The mean thermocline depth in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) is important for the slow modulation| skewness| and ENSO correlation of the IOD. With a shoaling (deepening) of the EEIO thermocline| the thermocline feedback strengthens| and this leads to an increase in IOD variance| a reduction of the negative skewness of the IOD| and a weakening of the IOD-ENSO correlation. In response to increasing greenhouse gases| a weakening of the Walker circulation leads to easterly wind anomalies in the equatorial Indian Ocean; the oceanic response to weakened circulation is a thermocline shoaling in the EEIO. Under greenhouse forcing| the thermocline feedback intensifies| but surprisingly IOD variance does not. The zonal wind anomalies associated with IOD are found to weaken| likely due to increased static stability of the troposphere from global warming. Linear model experiments confirm this stability effect to reduce circulation response to a sea surface temperature dipole. The opposing changes in thermocline and atmospheric feedbacks result in little change in IOD variance| but the shoaling thermocline weakens IOD skewness. Little change under global warming in IOD variance in the model suggests that the apparent intensification of IOD activity during recent decades is likely part of natural| chaotic modulation of the ocean-atmosphere system or the response to nongreenhouse gas radiative changes. 709,2010,2,4,Indirect effects of soil moisture reverse soil C sequestration responses of a spring wheat agroecosystem to elevated CO(2),Increased plant productivity under elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentrations might increase soil carbon (C) inputs and storage| which would constitute an important negative feedback on the ongoing atmospheric CO(2) rise. However| elevated CO(2) often also leads to increased soil moisture| which could accelerate the decomposition of soil organic matter| thus counteracting the positive effects via C cycling. We investigated soil C sequestration responses to 5 years of elevated CO(2) treatment in a temperate spring wheat agroecosystem. The application of (13)C-depleted CO(2) to the elevated CO(2) plots enabled us to partition soil C into recently fixed C (C(new)) and pre-experimental C (C(old)) by (13)C/(12)C mass balance. Gross C inputs to soils associated with C(new) accumulation and the decomposition of C(old) were then simulated using the Rothamsted C model 'RothC.' We also ran simulations with a modified RothC version that was driven directly by measured soil moisture and temperature data instead of the original water balance equation that required potential evaporation and precipitation as input. The model accurately reproduced the measured C(new) in bulk soil and microbial biomass C. Assuming equal soil moisture in both ambient and elevated CO(2)| simulation results indicated that elevated CO(2) soils accumulated an extra similar to 40-50 g C m(-2) relative to ambient CO(2) soils over the 5 year treatment period. However| when accounting for the increased soil moisture under elevated CO(2) that we observed| a faster decomposition of C(old) resulted; this extra C loss under elevated CO(2) resulted in a negative net effect on total soil C of similar to 30 g C m(-2) relative to ambient conditions. The present study therefore demonstrates that positive effects of elevated CO(2) on soil C due to extra soil C inputs can be more than compensated by negative effects of elevated CO(2) via the hydrological cycle. 467,2010,2,4,Individual growth rates do not predict aphid population densities under altered atmospheric conditions,Altered atmospheric composition| associated with climate change| can modify herbivore population dynamics through CO(2) and/or O(3)-mediated changes in plant quality. Although pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum genotypes exhibit intraspecific variation in population growth in response to atmospheric composition| the proximate mechanisms underlying this variation are largely unknown. By rearing single (green| pink) and mixed (green + pink) pea aphid genotypes on red clover Trifolium pratense at the Aspen Free Air CO(2) and O(3) Enrichment (Aspen FACE) site| we assessed whether: (i) elevated CO(2) and/or O(3) concentrations alter aphid growth and development and (ii) individual aphid growth rates predict aphid population densities. We showed that growth and development of individual green and pink aphids were not influenced by CO(2) and/or O(3) concentrations when reared as individual or mixed genotypes. Individual growth rates| however| did not predict population densities. Reared as a single genotype| green pea aphid populations decreased in response to elevated CO(2) concentrations| but not in response to elevated CO(2) + O(3) concentrations. Pink pea aphid populations reared as a single genotype were unaffected by augmented CO(2) or O(3). Populations of mixed genotypes| however| were reduced under elevated CO(2) concentrations| irrespective of O(3) concentrations. Herbivore population sizes may not readily be predicted from growth rates of individual organisms under atmospheric conditions associated with global climate change. 11061,2010,3,4,Industrial hemp or eucalyptus paper?,Pulp and paper production is one of the most important Portuguese economic activities. Mostly based on eucalyptus (Eucalyptus globulus)| nearly 70% of the pulp produced is exported| mainly to the European Union. The aim of this paper is to compare the environmental impacts of the production of Portuguese printing and writing paper based on eucalyptus with those from the production of paper from industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa). We have used a life cycle assessment approach to compare both types of paper. The functional unit used was a ton of white printing and writing paper. Data was mostly derived from the Portuguese literature for eucalyptus and from scientific literature for hemp. The impact categories/indicators taken into account were global warming| photochemical oxidant formation (summer smog)| acidification| eutrophication| and direct land use. Industrial hemp presents higher environmental impacts than eucalyptus paper in all environmental categories analyzed. The main differences are in the crop and the pulp production stages. This is because hemp makes use of higher number of mechanical operations and larger amounts of fertilizer in the former and larger amounts of chemical additives in the latter. There is scope for improving industrial hemp paper production. We present some suggestions on how to reduce some of the environmental impacts identified for hemp| so that the pulp and paper industry can continue its progress towards a more environmentally friendly paper production. New studies could be based on the alternatives presented throughout the paper for improving hemp paper. Further studies should incorporate analyses on water consumption| soil erosion| soil nutrient depletion| and impacts on biodiversity. 11379,2010,3,3,Inertial fusion power development: the path to global warming suppression,Shortly after the demonstration of the first lasers| it was proposed that nuclear fusion induced by laser energized implosion could be utilized for energy generation. Today| there are many facilities worldwide undertaking IFE research| and after decades of experiments| theoretical developments and simulations| it is expected that the laser fusion ignition will be demonstrated in the next few years. If this does indeed happen| we will see a new era toward the realization of a fusion power plant. 10635,2010,3,3,Influence of Antistripping Additives on Moisture Susceptibility of Warm Mix Asphalt Mixtures,Rising energy prices| global warming| and more stringent environmental regulations have resulted in an interest in warm mix asphalt (WMA) technologies as a means to decrease the energy consumption and emissions associated with conventional hot mix asphalt production. However| the utilization of the hydrated lime and liquid antistripping agents (ASA) in WMA mixture makes these issues more complicated. The objective of this study was to investigate and evaluate the moisture susceptibility of the mixtures containing ASA and WMA additives. The experimental design for this study included the utilizations of one binder source (PG 64-22)| three ASA additives and control| two WMA additives and virgin| and three aggregate sources. A total of 36 types of mixtures and 216 specimens were fabricated and tested in this study. The performed properties include indirect tensile strength (ITS)| tensile strength ratio (TSR)| flow| and toughness. The results indicated that the hydrate lime exhibits the best moisture resistance for WMA mixtures| the liquid ASA additives can increase the ITS values of the mixtures but the liquid ASA generally exhibits a weak moisture resistance compared to the hydrate lime regardless of WMA and aggregate types in this study. In addition| the wet ITS values of mixtures containing WMA additives were lower than that of the mixtures without WMA additives. 10832,2010,3,3,Influence of CaO additives on wheat-straw pyrolysis as determined by TG-FTIR analysis,The interest in utilization of biomass by CO(2) sorbent enhanced gasification is increasing due to the concerns about global warming and the wish to produce high purity hydrogen. Pyrolysis in the presence of abundant CaO additives is a fundamental step which determines primary product distribution| composition and properties. In this paper| pure wheat-straw pyrolysis and CaO catalyzed pyrolysis (loading various amounts of CaO additives) at different heating rates were compared using the thermogravimetric Fourier transform infrared (TG-FTIR) analysis. Results showed that CaO additives affected pyrolysis. In the main mass loss stage| the mass loss and maximum mass loss rate decreased with increasing amount of CaO additives. The temperature at the maximum mass loss rate shifted to lower value. CaO additives could not only absorb the released CO(2) but also restrain the CO and CH(4) yields and meanwhile catalyze the tar reduction reactions. Calculated activation energies at different heating rates were generally in close agreement with that of a previous study and the average activation energy was lowered. Unlike pure wheat-straw pyrolysis| a second mass loss stage mainly caused by calcium carbonate decomposition appeared in CaO catalyzed pyrolysis. The evolution of CO was found to be enhanced by CaO additives in this stage. The total mass loss decreased in the presence of CaO additives. CaO additives can play the roles of both CO(2) sorbent and tar reduction catalyst in sorbent enhanced biomass gasification. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11334,2010,4,4,Influence of circulation types on temperature extremes in Europe,The aim of this study is to determine the influence of atmospheric circulation on the recently observed changes in the number of warm days and cold days in Europe. The temperature series for stations in the European Climate Assessment and Data set project and the Grosswetterlagen (GWL) were used here. The temperature series were first adjusted for global warming before determining the indices for cold and warm extremes. The 29 GWLs were grouped in ten circulation types. Then| the number of days a certain circulation type occurred was determined for each winter (December| January and February) and summer (June| July and August). The relation between the circulation type frequencies and the temperature indices was modelled with a multi-regression fit over the period 1947-1974 and tested for the period 1974-2000. The difference between the observed indices and the calculated indices in the second period (using the fit coefficients for the first period) shows a warming effect for both winter and summer and for at least the warm day index| which is unaccounted for by the global warming trend. A simple snow model shows that variations in the European snow cover extent are likely influencing the cold and warm day indices in winter: there is a correlation between the decreasing trend of the snow cover extent in Europe and the increasing (decreasing) trend of the number of warm (cold) days for stations throughout Europe. 657,2010,2,4,Influence of climate and reproductive timing on demography of little brown myotis Myotis lucifugus,1. Estimating variation in demographic rates| such as survival and fecundity| is important for testing life-history theory and identifying conservation and management goals. 2. We used 16 years (1993-2008) of mark-recapture data to estimate age-specific survival and breeding probabilities of the little brown myotis Myotis lucifugus LeConte in southern New Hampshire| USA. Using Kendall & Nichols' (1995) full-likelihood approach of the robust design to account for temporary emigration| we tested whether survival and breeding propensity is influenced by regional weather patterns and timing of reproduction. 3. Our results demonstrate that adult female survival of M. lucifugus ranged from 0.63 (95% CL = 0.56| 0.68) to 0.90 (95% CL = 0.77| 0.94)| and was highest in wet years with high cumulative summer precipitation. First-year survival [range: 0.23 (95% CL = 0.14| 0.35) to 0.46 (95% CL = 0.34| 0.57)] was considerably lower than adult survival and depended on pup date of birth| such that young born earlier in the summer (c. late May) had a significantly higher probability of surviving their first year than young born later in the summer (c. mid-July). Similarly| the probability of young females returning to the maternity colony to breed in the summer following their birth year was higher for individuals born earlier in the summer [range: 0.23 (95% CL = 0.08| 0.50) to 0.53 (95% CL = 0.30| 0.75)]. 4. The positive influence of early parturition on 1st-year survival and breeding propensity demonstrates significant fitness benefits to reproductive timing in this temperate insectivorous bat. 5. Climatic factors can have important consequences for population dynamics of temperate bats| which may be negatively affected by summer drying patterns associated with global climate change. 6. Understanding long-term demographic trends will be important in the face of a novel disease phenomenon (White-Nose Syndrome) that is associated with massive mortalities in hibernating bat species| including M. lucifugus| in the northeastern United States. 636,2010,2,4,Influence of climate change on concrete durability in Yucatan peninsula,The environmental effects of global climate change (GCC) are becoming more evident. Nonetheless| efforts to document its effects on the durability of infrastructure are still limited. The present study used long term data (1961-2008) on temperature| relative humidity| precipitation and evaporation recorded in a tropical microclimate of the port of Progreso (Yucatan| Mexico) in order to detect climatic patterns associated to GCC. In addition| the authors analysed chloride profiles in concretes of different quality but of the same age (15 years) and exposed to the same microclimate. Results suggest the presence of environmental changes associated to GCC during the last 40 years| especially in terms of average and maximum temperature| which showed increases of 1 and 0.22 degrees C per decade respectively. Results also showed that seasonal and multiannual climatic cycles had an influence on the behaviour of the chloride profile of the studied concretes and thus on their durability. 10405,2010,2,4,Influence of eddy-driven jet latitude on North Atlantic jet persistence and blocking frequency in CMIP3 integrations,The distribution of daily North Atlantic jet latitude is analyzed in 45 CMIP3 integrations. It is demonstrated that models that place the jet equatorward of its observed position have more positively skewed jet latitude distributions| while models that correctly place the jet have symmetric distributions like that of the observations. The jet is shown to be more persistent at equatorward latitudes compared to poleward latitudes| consistent with previous findings in the Southern Hemisphere. There is a robust decrease in annual blocking frequency as the jet shifts poleward with global warming| with larger decreases seen for models with larger jet shifts| consistent with the effect of latitude on jet persistence. These results imply that model biases of jet latitude of 1 degrees-2 degrees could result in large differences in jet variability and frequency of extreme events predicted for the future. Citation: Barnes| E. A.| and D. L. Hartmann (2010)| Influence of eddy-driven jet latitude on North Atlantic jet persistence and blocking frequency in CMIP3 integrations| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L23802| doi:10.1029/2010GL045700. 707,2010,2,4,Influence of experimental warming and shading on host-parasitoid synchrony,As the climate warms| many species are showing altered phenology patterns| potentially disrupting synchrony between interacting species. Recent studies have documented disrupted synchrony in plant-herbivore and predator-prey interactions. However| studies investigating climate-related asynchrony in host-parasitoid interactions and exploring the relative responses of interacting hosts and parasitoids to climate change are lacking. This is an important gap in knowledge given the ubiquity of insect parasitoids and their importance in influencing the abundance and dynamics of their hosts. In the threatened marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas aurinia (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and its specialized parasitoid| Cotesia bignellii (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) phenological synchrony (and consequently population fluctuations) are thought to be weather-dependent. To assess the likely influence of climate and microenvironment change on synchrony between E. aurinia and C. bignellii| we experimentally manipulated the exposure of sensitive-stage host larvae and parasitoid pupae to temperature (ambient or elevated) and shading (shaded or unshaded) regimes. We also analysed a 20-year population dynamic dataset from the United Kingdom for E. aurinia to investigate whether population variations could be explained by interannual variations in the thermal and sunshine environment. Development times were affected significantly by the experimental temperature and shading treatments for E. aurinia but not for C. bignellii. However| the contrasting responses were insufficient to significantly affect host availability for parasitoids. In the field| thermal and sunshine conditions did not influence population fluctuations| and population variations across a large (UK-wide) scale were uncorrelated. Changes to the thermal and sunshine environment of the magnitude investigated in our experiment and within the range experienced by wild E. aurinia populations over the last 20-years thus seem unlikely to cause breakdown in host-parasitoid synchrony. We suggest that experiments investigating the mechanistic responses of interacting species to environmental change are needed to support the analysis and interpretation of observational data on species' phenology. 446,2010,2,3,Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification,This study quantifies the relative impact on future ocean acidification of different aspects of global climate change mitigation policies| such as the year that global emissions peak| how fast they reduce after their peak| and the long term minimum emissions that are possible. Relative to a scenario where emissions peak in 2016 and then decrease by 1% per year| further emissions reductions to 2| 3 and 4% per year lead to the same impact minimum pH (by 2100) if emissions peak 10| 15 and 17 years later respectively. Over the same time scale| non-mitigation scenarios lead to a decrease of global mean surface pH of 7.67 to 7.81. Strong and urgent mitigation| emissions peaking in 2016 and reducing by 5% per year| are shown to limit this minimum to 8.02. Minimum pH over longer timescales| the next 500 years| is largely determined by the minimum emission level that is attainable| owing to its relation with cumulative emissions. Citation: Bernie| D.| J. Lowe| T. Tyrrell| and O. Legge (2010)| Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L15704| doi:10.1029/2010GL043181. 10484,2010,5,4,Influence of quaternary sea-level variations on a land bird endemic to Pacific atolls,Little is known about the effect of quaternary climate variations on organisms that inhabited carbonate islands of the Pacific Ocean| although it has been suggested that one or several uplifted islands provided shelter for terrestrial birds when sea-level reached its highest. To test this hypothesis| we investigated the history of colonization of the Tuamotu reed-warbler (Acrocephalus atyphus) in southeastern Polynesia| and found high genetic structure between the populations of three elevated carbonate islands. Estimates of time since divergence support the hypothesis that these islands acted as refugia during the last interglacial maximum. These findings are particularly important for defining conservation priorities on atolls that endure the current trend of sea-level rise owing to global warming. 11432,2010,2,3,Influence of weather and global warming in chloride ingress into concrete: A stochastic approach,Reinforced concrete (RC) structures are subjected to environmental actions affecting their performance| serviceability and safety Among these actions| chloride ingress leads to corrosion and has been recognized as a critical factor reducing service life of RC structures This paper presents a stochastic approach to study the influence of weather conditions and global warming on chloride ingress into concrete The assessment of chloride ingress is carried out on the basis of a comprehensive model that couples the effects of convection| chloride binding| concrete aging| temperature and humidity. A simplified model of temperature and humidity including seasonal variations and global warming is also proposed in this work Three scenarios of global warming are defined based on. gas emissions| global population growth| introduction of new and clean technologies and use of fossil sources of energy The proposed approach is illustrated by a numerical example where the preliminary results indicate that climate changes may yield to significant lifetime reductions (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved 507,2010,2,4,Influences of gas bubble and ice density on ice thickness measurement by GPR,Lake ice thickness changes with regional hydrometeorology and is closely associated with global climate change. We tested the detection of ice thickness using ground penetrating radar (GPR) in the Hongqipao reservoir. Ice crystals| gas bubbles| ice density and ice thickness were also determined by concurrently drilling for validation. During the tests the gas bubble content was high in the upper and low in the bottom| ice density varied with the bubble content| and the ice thickness was not homogeneous. By comparisons between radar detected and in-situ measured ice thicknesses with theoretical analyses of the influence of gas bubble content on the dielectric constant| a three-layer model with snow| granular ice| and columnar ice was established and the transmission speed of radar wave within the ice was determined. Experience reveals that the equivalent dielectric constant can be used to evaluate the wave speed and the values at 1/3 ice cover depth can be used as equivalent values. Besides| the difference between the theoretical transmission time and the real detection time induced by large gas bubbles increases nonlinearly with the theoretical transmission time or ice thickness. 10387,2010,3,4,Infrared absorption spectra| radiative efficiencies| and global warming potentials of perfluorocarbons: Comparison between experiment and theory,Experimentally and theoretically determined infrared spectra are reported for a series of straight-chain perfluorocarbons: C(2)F(6)| C(3)F(8)| C(4)F(10)| C(5)F(12)| C(6)F(14)| and C(8)F(18). Theoretical spectra were determined using both density functional (DFT) and ab initio methods. Radiative efficiencies (REs) were determined using the method of Pinnock et al. (1995) and combined with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine global warming potentials (GWPs). Theoretically determined absorption cross sections were within 10% of experimentally determined values. Despite being much less computationally expensive| DFT calculations were generally found to perform better than ab initio methods. There is a strong wavenumber dependence of radiative forcing in the region of the fundamental C-F vibration| and small differences in wavelength between band positions determined by theory and experiment have a significant impact on the REs. We apply an empirical correction to the theoretical spectra and then test this correction on a number of branched chain and cyclic perfluoroalkanes. We then compute absorption cross sections| REs| and GWPs for an additional set of perfluoroalkenes. 10474,2010,4,3,Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change(dagger),Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change| it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change| and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane| desflurane| and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate| detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared| IR) absorption and atmospheric lifetimes are required. We have measured the IR spectra of these anaesthetics and conducted calculations of their contribution to radiative forcing of climate change recognizing the important fact that radiative forcing is strongly dependent on the wavelength of the absorption features. Radiative efficiencies of 0.453| 0.469| and 0.351 W m(-2) ppb(-1) and global warming potentials (GWPs) of 510| 1620| and 210 (100 yr time horizon) were established for isoflurane| desflurane| and sevoflurane| respectively. On the basis of the derived 100 yr GWPs| the average climate impact per anaesthetic procedure at the University of Michigan is the same as the emission of similar to 22 kg CO(2). We estimate that the global emissions of inhalation anaesthetics have a climate impact which is comparable with that from the CO(2) emissions from one coal-fired power plant or 1 million passenger cars. 10539,2010,2,3,Initial responses of soil CO(2) efflux and C| N pools to experimental warming in two contrasting forest ecosystems| Eastern Tibetan Plateau| China,Alpine ecosystems are harsh environments where low temperatures are generally a limiting factor. Predicted global warming is thus expected to have a profound impact on alpine ecosystems in the future. This study was conducted to compare the effect of experimental warming on soils in two contrasting forest ecosystems (a dragon spruce plantation and a natural forest) using the open top chamber (OTC) method in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau of China. The OTC enhanced average daily mean soil temperatures by 0.61A degrees C (plantation) and 0.55A degrees C (natural forest)| respectively| throughout the growing season. Conversely| soil volumetric moisture declined by 4.10% in the plantation and by 2.55% in the natural forest. Across all measuring dates| warming increased average soil CO(2) efflux by 10.6% in the plantation and by 15.4% in the natural forest. However| elevated temperatures did not affect the respiration quotient in either forest. Two-stage sulfuric acid hydrolysis was used to quantify labile and recalcitrant C and N fractions in the two contrasting soils. Warming significantly reduced labile C and N fractions in both ecosystems but did not influence the total| recalcitrant and microbial biomass C and N pools. Labile C| N and microbial biomass C showed significant interactions in warming x forest type x season. Irrespective of warming treatments| all measured pools were significantly larger in the natural forest compared to the plantation. Taken together| our results indicate that the lowered soil labile C and N pools may be induced by the increased soil CO(2) efflux. The responses of the natural forest soil were more sensitive to experimental warming than those of the plantation. We conclude that reforestation dramatically lowers soil C and N pools| further affecting the responses of forest soils to future global warming. 10589,2010,2,4,Initial soil responses to experimental warming in two contrasting forest ecosystems| Eastern Tibetan Plateau| China: Nutrient availabilities| microbial properties and enzyme activities,In order to understand the effects of projected global warming on soils in different land-use types| we compared the impacts of warming on soils in two contrasting forest ecosystems (a dragon spruce plantation and a natural forest) using the open-top chamber (OTC) method in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau of China. The OTC on average enhanced daily mean soil temperatures by 0.61 degrees C (plantation) and by 0.55 degrees C (natural forest) throughout the growing season| respectively. Conversely| soil volumetric moisture declined by 4.10% in the plantation and by 2.55% in the natural forest| respectively. Warming did not affect dissolved organic C (DOC) and N (DON) in the plantation but significantly increased them in the natural forest. Elevated temperature significantly increased net N mineralization rates and extractable inorganic N pools in both sites. Warming had no effects on microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN) and their ratios (MBC/MBN) in the plantation and significantly increased MBC and MBN only late in the growing season in the natural forest. Warming did not affect basal respiration in the plantation but significantly increased it in the natural forest. No clear change was observed in metabolic quotient between warming regimes for both forest types. Experimental warming tended to increase invertase and urease in both forest soils. Measured pools related to N turnover generally showed significant interactions in warming| forest type and sampling date. Taken together| our results indicate that responses of soils to experimental warming depend strongly on forest managements and seasons. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11235,2010,3,3,Inner Mongolia must "leapfrog" the energy mistakes of the western developed nations,The purpose of the Asian Development Bank Report was to investigate and study the energy infrastructure development of western industrialized nations along with their impact on the environment. Then there could be an analysis of how IMAR could "leapfrog" or jump over the mistakes of the west and create an energy infrastructure for itself and China. The report reflects and summarizes this historical energy infrastructure development over the 20th Century. The five countries were the UK| Germany| S. Africa| USA and Australia. The foreign energy advisors felt that there were two additional elements that needed to be included. First was the fact that the USA as a whole was different than its regions or states| particularly California. So the nation-state of California was added. Secondly| the western nations of Germany and S. Africa in particular| had carefully considered some advanced coal technologies that were "cleaner" than the traditional and conventional approaches to mining. Both nations developed these "clean coal" technologies that are now being used more and more today in other developed nations like the USA. If IMAR was to retain much of its coal production and reduce it over time| then it had to install these technologies now to reduce global warming and reverse the climate change caused by current coal mining. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 602,2010,2,4,Insect overwintering in a changing climate,Insects are highly successful animals inhabiting marine| freshwater and terrestrial habitats from the equator to the poles. As a group| insects have limited ability to regulate their body temperature and have thus required a range of strategies to support life in thermally stressful environments| including behavioural avoidance through migration and seasonal changes in cold tolerance. With respect to overwintering strategies| insects have traditionally been divided into two main groups: freeze tolerant and freeze avoiding| although this simple classification is underpinned by a complex of interacting processes| i.e. synthesis of ice nucleating agents| cryoprotectants| antifreeze proteins and changes in membrane lipid composition. Also| in temperate and colder climates| the overwintering ability of many species is closely linked to the diapause state| which often increases cold tolerance ahead of temperature-induced seasonal acclimatisation. Importantly| even though most species can invoke one or both of these responses| the majority of insects die from the effects of cold rather than freezing. Most studies on the effects of a changing climate on insects have focused on processes that occur predominantly in summer (development| reproduction) and on changes in distributions rather than winter survival per se. For species that routinely experience cold stress| a general hypothesis would be that predicted temperature increases of 1 degrees C to 5 degrees C over the next 50-100 years would increase winter survival in some climatic zones. However| this is unlikely to be a universal effect. Negative impacts may occur if climate warming leads to a reduction or loss of winter snow cover in polar and sub-polar areas| resulting in exposure to more severe air temperatures| increasing frequency of freeze-thaw cycles and risks of ice encasement. Likewise| whilst the dominant diapause-inducing cue (photoperiod) will be unaffected by global climate change| higher temperatures may modify normal rates of development| leading to a de-coupling of synchrony between diapause-sensitive life-cycle stages and critical photoperiods for diapause induction. In terms of climate warming and potential heat stress| the most recent predictions of summer temperatures in Europe of 40 degrees C or higher in 50-75 years| are close to the current upper lethal limit of some insects. Long-term data sets on insect distributions and the timing of annual migrations provide strong evidence for 'positive' responses to higher winter temperatures over timescales of the past 20-50 years in North America| Europe and Asia. 10869,2010,3,4,Integrating livestock manure with a corn-soybean bioenergy cropping system improves short-term carbon sequestration rates and net global warming potential,Carbon cycling and the global warming potential (GWP) of bioenergy cropping systems with complete biomass removal are of agronomic and environmental concern. Corn growers who plan to remove corn stover as a feedstock for the emerging cellulosic ethanol industry will benefit from carbon amendments such as manure and compost| to replace carbon removed with the corn stover. The objective of this research was to determine the effect of beef cattle feedlot manure and composted dairy manure on short-term carbon sequestration rates and net global warming potential (GWP) in a corn-soybean rotation with complete corn-stover removal. Field experiments consisting of a corn-soybean rotation with whole-plant corn harvest| were conducted near East Lansing| MI over a three-year period beginning in 2002. Compost and manure amendments raised soil carbon (C) at a level sufficient to overcome the C debt associated with manure production| manure collection and storage| land application| and post-application field emissions. The net GWP in carbon dioxide equivalents for the manure and compost amended cropping systems was -934 and -784 g m(-2) y(-1)| respectively| compared to 52 g m(-2) y(-1) for the non-manure amended synthetic fertilizer check. This work further substantiates the environmental benefits associated with renewable fuels and demonstrates that with proper management| the integration of livestock manures in biofuel cropping systems can enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) remediation. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 10903,2010,4,4,Integration of albedo effects caused by land use change into the climate balance: Should we still account in greenhouse gas units?,Due to impacts of albedo on climate change| benefits of afforestation/reforestation regimes are under debate. In this paper we investigate how to incorporate albedo changes in a carbon accounting tool to show the net effect of land use change on the climate Using a study area in southern Europe| albedo and carbon sequestration modelling results are linked to determine the combined radiative forcing balance The results show that under specific circumstances afforestation/reforestation measures may not automatically have positive impacts in a global warming context because the cooling effect of most of the carbon sequestered is neutralized by the warming effect of albedo changes However| sensitivity analyses lead to the conclusion that improved albedo data from satellite images (MODIS) could influence and enhance outputs significantly. The paper points out that accounting based exclusively on GHG units does not| in the case of land use change| reflect the entire picture. It is highly recommended that in future global warming impacts of land use systems and biogenic products (e g. solid biomass| liquid biofuels) should be studied using life cycle assessments (LCA) and should include these additional-non-GHG effects on climate change (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved 10754,2010,2,3,Intensification of hot extremes in the United States,Governments are currently considering policies that will limit greenhouse gas concentrations| including negotiation of an international treaty to replace the expiring Kyoto Protocol. Existing mitigation targets have arisen primarily from political negotiations| and the ability of such policies to avoid dangerous impacts is still uncertain. Using a large suite of climate model experiments| we find that substantial intensification of hot extremes could occur within the next 3 decades| below the 2 degrees C global warming target currently being considered by policy makers. We also find that the intensification of hot extremes is associated with a shift towards more anticyclonic atmospheric circulation during the warm season| along with warm-season drying over much of the U. S. The possibility that intensification of hot extremes could result from relatively small increases in greenhouse gas concentrations suggests that constraining global warming to 2 degrees C may not be sufficient to avoid dangerous climate change. Citation: Diffenbaugh| N. S.| and M. Ashfaq (2010)| Intensification of hot extremes in the United States| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L15701| doi: 10.1029/2010GL043888. 11295,2010,4,4,Interaction between El Nino and Extreme Indian Ocean Dipole,Climate variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific sector has undergone dramatic changes under global ocean warming. Extreme Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events occurred repeatedly in recent decades with an unprecedented series of three consecutive episodes during 2006-08| causing vast climate and socioeconomic effects worldwide and weakening the historic El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship. Major attention has been paid to the El Nino influence on the Indian Ocean| but how the IOD influences El Nino and its predictability remained an important issue to be understood. On the basis of various forecast experiments activating and suppressing air-sea coupling in the individual tropical ocean basins using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean atmosphere model with demonstrated predictive capability| the present study shows that the extreme IOD plays a key role in driving the 1994 pseudo-El Nino| in contrast with traditional El Nino theory. The pseudo El Nino is more frequently observed in recent decades| coincident with a weakened atmospheric Walker circulation in response to anthropogenic forcing. The study's results suggest that extreme IOD may significantly enhance El Nino and its onset forecast| which has being a long-standing challenge| and El Nino in turn enhances IOD and its long-range predictability. The intrinsic El Nino-IOD interaction found here provides hope for enhanced prediction skill of both of these climate modes| and it sheds new light on the tropical climate variations and their changes under the influence of global warming. 576,2010,2,4,Interactions between Walleyes and Smallmouth Bass in a Missouri River Reservoir with Consideration of the Influence of Temperature and Prey,Walleyes Sander vitreus are the most popular fish among South Dakota anglers| but smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu were introduced to provide new angling opportunities. Some walleye anglers have reported reductions in the quality of walleye fisheries since the introduction of smallmouth bass and attribute this to the consumption of young walleyes by smallmouth bass and competition for shared prey resources. We quantified the diets of walleyes and smallmouth bass in the lower reaches of Lake Sharpe (a Missouri River reservoir)| calculated the diet overlap between the two predators| and determined whether they partitioned shared prey based on size. We also quantified walleye diets in the upper reach of the reservoir| which has a different prey base and allowed us to compare the growth rates of walleyes within Lake Sharpe. Age-0 gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum composed a substantial proportion of the diets of both predators| regardless of location| for most of the growing season; the patterns in shad vulnerability appeared to drive the observed patterns in diet overlap. Smallmouth bass appeared to consume a smaller size range of gizzard shad than did walleyes| which consumed a wide range. Smallmouth bass consumed Sander spp. in some months| but in very low quantities. Given that global climate change is expected to alter the population and community dynamics in Great Plains reservoirs| we also used a bioenergetics approach to predict the potential effects of limiting prey availability (specifically| the absence of gizzard shad and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax) and increased water temperatures (as projected from global climate change models) on walleye and smallmouth bass growth. The models indicated that the absence of rainbow smelt from the diets of walleyes in upper Lake Sharpe would reduce growth but that the absence of gizzard shad would have a more marked negative effect on both predators at both locations. The models also indicated that higher water temperatures would have an even greater negative influence on walleye growth; however| smallmouth bass growth was predicted to increase with higher temperatures. Fisheries managers should consider strategies to enhance the prey base or mitigate the effects of increased water temperatures that may occur in the future as a result of global climate change. Such proactive actions may alleviate potential future competition between walleyes and smallmouth bass resulting from changes in the fish community. 498,2010,2,4,Interdecadal changes in at-sea distribution and abundance of subantarctic seabirds along a latitudinal gradient in the Southern Indian Ocean,Long-term demographic studies have recently shown that global climate change together with increasing direct impacts of human activities| such as fisheries| are affecting the population dynamics of marine top predators. However| the effects of these factors on species distribution and abundance at sea are still poorly understood| particularly in marine ecosystems of the southern hemisphere. Using a unique long-term data set of at-sea observations| we tested for interdecadal (1980s vs. 2000s) changes in summer abundance and distribution of 12 species of Albatrosses and Petrels along a 30 degrees latitudinal gradient between tropical and Antarctic waters of the southern Indian Ocean. There were contrasting effects of climate change on subantarctic seabird distribution and abundance at sea. While subtropical waters showed the highest rate of warming| the species that visited this water mass showed the greatest changes in distribution and abundance. The abundance of Wandering Albatrosses (Diomedea exulans)| White-chinned Petrels (Procellaria aequinoctialis) and Giant Petrels (Macronectes sp.) declined markedly| whereas the other species showed contrasting trends or did not change. With the exception of the White-chinned Petrel| these decreases were at least partly related to regional increase in sea surface temperature. The southward shift of Wandering Albatross and Prions (Pachyptila spp.) distributions could be ascribed to species redistribution or decrease in abundance due to warming of the subtropical waters. Surprisingly| White-chinned Petrel distribution shifted northward| suggesting more complex mechanisms. This study is the first to document a shift in species range in the Southern Ocean related to climate change and contrasting abundance changes. It suggests that some species might experience more severe impacts from climate change depending on the water masses they visit. As climate changes are predicted to continue in the next decades| understanding species responses to climate change is crucial for conservation management| especially when their conservation status is critical or unknown. 10653,2010,2,3,Intergenerational justice when future worlds are uncertain,Let there be a positive (exogenous) probability that| at each date| the human species will disappear. We postulate an Ethical Observer (EO) who maximizes intertemporal welfare under this uncertainty| with expected-utility preferences. Various social welfare criteria entail alternative von Neumann Morgenstern utility functions for the EO: utilitarian| Rawlsian| and an extension of the latter that corrects for the size of population. Our analysis covers| first| a cake-eating economy (without production)| where the utilitarian and Rawlsian recommend the same allocation. Second| a productive economy with education and capital| where it turns out that the recommendations of the two Eos are in general different. But when the utilitarian program diverges| then we prove it is optimal for the extended Rawlsian to ignore the uncertainty concerning the possible disappearance of the human species in the future. We conclude by discussing the implications for intergenerational welfare maximization in the presence of global warming. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11207,2010,2,4,International Year of Planet Earth 8. Natural Hazards in Canada,Canada| the second largest country in the world| is subject to every hazardous natural process on Earth - large earthquakes| tsunami| volcanic eruptions| landslides| snow avalanches| floods| hurricanes| tornados| severe storms| drought| and sea-level rise. Fortunately| much of the country is sparsely populated; hence risk from these hazardous processes is localized to small areas adjacent to the Canada - US border| where most Canadians live. The greatest risk comes from earthquakes and landslides on the populated south coast of British Columbia and parts of southern Ontario and Quebec; from floods in Vancouver| Calgary| Winnipeg| or Toronto; and from hurricanes in Halifax and St. John's. In the long term| Canada's coastlines are threatened by sea-level rise and Canada's northern indigenous peoples are threatened by permafrost thaw caused by global warming. 511,2010,2,3,International Year of Planet Earth 9. Geology in the Urban Environment in Canada,Over 80% of Canadians are urban dwellers| and geology plays a major role in their living environment. Aggregates| water supply| waste disposal| and building problems associated with compressible or sensitive sediments| swelling clays| and dense tills| are major urban geological concerns. A. variety of geological hazards impact our cities| including earthquakes| tsunami| volcanic eruptions| landslides| flooding and| along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts| sea level rise. New urban challenges arise from declining reserves of fossil fuels and global climate change| both of which require a rapid transition to alternative energy sources (wind| solar| geothermal) and rebuilt infrastructure. Canada will increasingly face urban issues that require enhanced public education and the services of geologists. 11164,2010,4,4,Interpreting variability in global SST data using independent component analysis and principal component analysis,Component extraction techniques are used widely in the analysis and interpretation of high-dimensional climate datasets such as global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Principal component abalysis (PCA)| a frequently used component extraction technique| provides an orthogonal representation of the multivariate data set and maximizes the variance explained by successive components. A disadvantage of PCA| however| is that the interpretability of the second and higher components may be limited. For this reason| a Varimax rotation is often applied to the PCA solution to enhance the interpretability of the components by maximizing a simple structure. An alternative rotational approach in known as independent component analysis (ICA)| which finds a set of underlying 'source signals' which drive the multivariate 'mixed' dataset. Here we compare the capacity of PCA| the Varimax rotation and ICA in explaining climate variability present in globally distributed SST anomaly (SSTA) data. We find that phenomena which are global in extent| such as the global warming trend and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)| are well represented using PCA. In contrast| the Varimax rotation provides distinct advantages in interpreting more localized phenomena such as variability in the tropical Atlantic. Finally| our analysis suggests that the interpretability of independent components (ICs) appears to be low. This does not diminish the statistical advantages of deriving components that are mutually independent| with potential applications ranging from synthetically generating multivariate datasets| developing statistical forecasts| and reconstructing spatial datasets from patchy observations at multiple point locations. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meterological Society. 10757,2010,3,4,Interruption Capability and Decomposed Gas Density of CF(3)I as a Substitute for SF(6) Gas,We investigated the fundamental characteristic of CF(3)I as a substitute gas for SF(6). CF(3)I has lower global warming potential. The use of pure CF(3)I in gas-insulated switchgear and gas circuit breakers is difficult because liquid CF(3)I has a high boiling point. We therefore mixed CF(3)I with CO(2) or N(2). In short line fault (SLF| 1 kA(peak)) and breaker terminal fault (BTF| 3 kA(peak)) interruption| the performance of CF(3)I-CO(2) approximated that of pure CF(3)I when the proportion of CF(3)I exceeded 30%. However| for BTF (20 kA(peak)) interruption| the performance of CF(3)I-CO(2) remarkably decreased. In loop current interruption for disconnecting switches| CF(3)I-CO(2) (30%/70%) was successfully used 200 times for 4000 A. We also measured CF(3)I spectra. Investigation of the decomposed gas density after current interruption revealed that fluorine release from CF(3)I was less than that from SF(6). Iodine density released from CF(3)I-CO(2) (30%/70%) was approximately one-third of that released from pure CF(3)I. In addition| iodine could be removed using an adsorbent.
11449,2010,3,4,INTROGRESSION OF DROUGHT-RESISTANCE GENE(S) FROM HELIANTHUS ARGOPHYLLUS TO HELIANTHUS ANNUUS SPECIE| USING EMBRYO RESCUE TECHNIQUES,In order to improve drought resistance of sunflower in the context of the global warming and to accelerate this improvement| introgression of resistance genes from wild species was attempted| using embryo rescue techniques| combined with classical procedures to improve crossing| self-pollination and backcrossing. Thirty four approved or pending approval lines (B and C) were tested for combination capacity with the wild Helianthus argophyllus. After crossing between H. annuus and H. argophyllus| 6 generations in two years (2008-2009) were obtained| as follows: F1 (interspecific crossing - harvest immature hybrid embryos)| BC1F1; BC2F1; BC3F1; BC4F1; BC4F2. In case of the crossing between species H. argophyllus and H. annuus only four generations (F1; BC1F1; BC1F2; BC2F1) in 2 years were obtained| due to the long vegetation period of the wild species| the long flowering period| the high degree of branching and not finally higher incompatibility between the two species. 11481,2010,3,3,Inundating contrasting boreal forest soils: CO(2) and CH(4) production rates,Flooding boreal forest ecosystems for hydroelectric power generation may release substantial amounts of carbon (C) to the atmosphere| contributing to global warming. The objectives of this study were to evaluate CO(2) and CH(4) production rates using spring/fall (14 degrees C) and summer (21 degrees C) temperatures under non-flooded and flooded conditions. Incubation temperatures represented the mean annual air temperature in May and September (14 degrees C)| and in July (21 degrees C). Greenhouse gas production rates were quantified using laboratory incubations of 2 contrasting soil types (Humo-Ferric Podzol [very dry| mineral] and a Histic Folisol [moist| organic]) collected at the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario| Canada. The mean production rate of CO(2) and CH(4) in the headspace of the incubation jars was significantly influenced by temperature| flooding and soil type. Results showed that the mean CO(2) (65 [Podzol]; 43 [Folisol]) and CH(4) (0.06 [Podzol]; 0.06 [Folisol]) production rates (mu g.g(-1).d(-1)) were significantly higher (P < 0.05) at 21 degrees C and in flooded treatments from both soil types. The greatest CO(2) and CH(4) production rates (mu g.g(-1).d(-1)) occurred from the Folisol (110 [CO(2)]; 0.03 [CH(4)]) and the L and FH horizons of the Podzol (250 [CO(2)]; 0.05 [CH4]). Q(10) values showed that decomposition of soil organic matter was more temperature dependent in non-flooded treatments| with values ranging from 1.57 to 5.03| than in flooded treatments (1.31 to 3.58). The greatest loss of soil organic carbon relative to the original C content (g.m(-2)) occurred in the Ah horizon of the Podzol in non-flooded (0.01% [14 degrees C]; 0.02% [21 degrees C]) and flooded (0.02% [14 degrees C]; 0.03% [21 degrees C]) treatments and at both temperatures. Information presented in this paper helps to evaluate how 2 contrasting soil types (Podzol and Folisol) responded to flooding and provided further insight into the dynamics of greenhouse gas (GHG) production rates as a result of hydroelectric reservoir creation. This will aid in future planning| construction| and management of hydroelectric reservoirs to help minimize GHG emissions and boreal forest disturbance. 11493,2010,2,4,Investigating changes over time of annual rainfall in Zimbabwe,There is increasing concern in southern Africa about the possible decline of rainfall as a result of global warming. Some studies concluded that average rainfall in Zimbabwe had declined by 10% or 100mm during the last 100 years. This paper investigates the validity of the assumption that rainfall is declining in Zimbabwe. Time series of annual rainfall| and total rainfall for (a) the early part of the rainy season| October-November-December (OND)| and (b) the mid to end of the rainy season| January-February-March (JFM) are analysed for the presence of trends using the Mann-Kendall test| and for the decline or increase during years with either high or low rainfall using quantile regression analysis. The Pettitt test has also been utilized to examine the possible existence of change or break-points in the rainfall time series. The analysis has been done for 40 rainfall stations with records starting during the 1892-1940 period and ending in 2000| and representative of all the rainfall regions. The Mann-Kendal test did not identify a significant trend at all the 40 stations| and therefore there is no proof that the average rainfall at each of these stations has changed. Quantile regression analysis revealed a decline in annual rainfall less than the tenth percentile at only one station| and increasing of rainfall greater than the ninetieth percentile at another station. All the other stations had no changes over time in both the low and high rainfall at the annual interval. Climate change effects are therefore not yet statistically significant within time series of total seasonal and annual rainfall in Zimbabwe. The general perception about declining rainfall is likely due to the presence of multidecadal variability characterized by bunching of years with above (e. g. 1951-1958| 1973-1980) and below (e.g. 1959-1972| 1982-1994) average rainfall. 418,2010,2,4,Investigating the Impact of Elevated Levels of Ozone on Tropical Wheat Using Integrated Phenotypical| Physiological| Biochemical| and Proteomics Approaches,Ozone (O(3))| a potent air pollutant and a significant greenhouse gas| has been recognized as a major component of global climate change. However| current increasing trends in its background level are projecting a more severe threat to natural and cultivated plants in the near future. The present study has been designed to evaluate the impact of elevated concentrations of O(3) on phenotypical| physiological| and biochemical traits in two high-yielding cultivars of wheat| followed by analysis of the leaf proteome using one/two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (1-/2-DGE) coupled to immunoblotting and mass spectrometry analyses under near-natural conditions using open top chambers. Prominently| O(3) exposure caused specific foliar injury in both the wheat cultivars. Results also showed that O(3) stress significantly decreased photosynthetic rate| stomatal conductance| and chlorophyll fluorescence kinetics (F(v)/F(m)) in test cultivars. Biochemical evaluations further revealed a higher loss in photosynthetic pigments| whereas a significantly induced antioxidant system under elevated O(3) concentrations pointed toward an ability of O(3) to generate oxidative stress. 1-DGE analysis showed drastic reductions in the abundantly present ribulose-1|5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (RuBisCO) large and small subunits. Western blot analysis confirmed induced accumulation of antioxidative enzymes like superoxide dismutase and ascorbate peroxidase protein(s) and common defense/stress-related thaumatin-like protein(s). 2-DGE analysis revealed a total of 38 differentially expressed protein spots| common in both the wheat cultivars. Among those| some major leaf photosynthetic proteins (including RuBisCO and RuBisCO activase) and important energy metabolism proteins (including ATP synthase| aldolase| and phosphoglycerate kinase) were drastically reduced| whereas some stress/defense-related proteins (such as harpin-binding protein and germin-like protein) were induced. In all| the present study reveals an intimate molecular network provoked by O(3) affecting photosynthesis and triggering antioxidative defense and stress-related proteins culminating in accelerated foliar injury in wheat plants. 11479,2010,2,4,INVESTIGATION AND ASSESSMENT OF DEPENDENCES OF THE TOTAL CARBON ON pH IN NERIS REGIONAL PARK SOIL,Soil is one of the most important natural subsystems of the Earth's landscapes| which is exceptionally vital for a human being as the main source of food resources. In order to take care of the future one of the most relevant problems of the mankind is to preserve soils of the Earth| their fertility and normal state under conditions of the increasing technogenic effect and degradation of natural landscapes. As the global warming has already started| its after-effects| which will be in-vertable faced by the Lithuanian agriculture| must be overcome as an additional negative factor. The paper aims at revealing the dependence of the total carbon on pH. It also focuses on the impact of climate change on the total carbon and soil degradation. 11478,2010,3,3,INVESTIGATION INTO EMISSIONS OF GASEOUS POLLUTANTS DURING SEWAGE SLUDGE COMPOSTING WITH WOOD WASTE,The main environmental problem of sewage sludge treatment and storing processes is unpleasant smell caused by emitted gases| such as NH(3)| H(2)S etc.; which are released during organic matter decomposition process. The second environmental problem is that during sewage sludge composting process global warming gases| such as CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O are emitted| the emissions of these gases can be reduced by creating optimal composting conditions (C:N| aeration| pH and humidity) and by adding some additives (wood cuttings| shavings| zeolites| peat etc.) into sewage sludge. In our study we analyse the experimental results on CH(4)| NH(3)| H(2)S and VOC emissions during sewage sludge composting process. For this experiment| centrifuge-dried sewage sludge from Vilnius City Municipal Sewage Treatment Plant were used. Used Ashen bark| oaken cuttings| aspen shavings| shredded deciduous tree branches. The composting process was performed in a compost site-simulating facilities. 11447,2010,2,3,Investigation of the impact of global warming on precipitation pattern of Saudi Arabia,This study has been carried out to forecast the impact of global warming on the precipitation pattern of Saudi Arabia by the end of year 2100. Simulation has been done using EdGCM model software (with available 8x10 resolution) developed at Columbia University on which there have been produced global precipitation maps for the seasonal and annual averages for the last 5 years (2096-2100). For each map| EdGCM grid values surrounding Saudi Arabia are used as input to one of the tools of Eagle point software called surface modelling (SM). SM is a new approach for downscaling global climate model results. SM software modelled out isohyets at 0.2mm/day interval. The results indicate that the present pattern of precipitation (more in winter and less in summer) is going to change by almost equal occurrence of precipitation in all seasons for double_CO2 (2CO2) experiment. The 2CO2 experiment indicates an increase of about 16.05% over the annual average precipitation across the country. 659,2010,4,4,Iron biogeochemistry across marine systems - progress from the past decade,Based on an international workshop (Gothenburg| 14-16 May 2008)| this review article aims to combine interdisciplinary knowledge from coastal and open ocean research on iron biogeochemistry. The major scientific findings of the past decade are structured into sections on natural and artificial iron fertilization| iron inputs into coastal and estuarine systems| colloidal iron and organic matter| and biological processes. Potential effects of global climate change| particularly ocean acidification| on iron biogeochemistry are discussed. The findings are synthesized into recommendations for future research areas. 594,2010,3,3,Iron enrichment stimulates toxic diatom production in high-nitrate| low-chlorophyll areas,Oceanic high-nitrate| low-chlorophyll environments have been highlighted for potential large-scale iron fertilizations to help mitigate global climate change. Controversy surrounds these initiatives| both in the degree of carbon removal and magnitude of ecosystem impacts. Previous open ocean enrichment experiments have shown that iron additions stimulate growth of the toxigenic diatom genus Pseudonitzschia. Most Pseudonitzschia species in coastal waters produce the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA)| with their blooms causing detrimental marine ecosystem impacts| but oceanic Pseudonitzschia species are considered nontoxic. Here we demonstrate that the sparse oceanic Pseudonitzschia community at the high-nitrate| low-chlorophyll Ocean Station PAPA( 50 degrees N| 145 degrees W) produces approximately 200 pg DA L(-1) in response to iron addition| that DA alters phytoplankton community structure to benefit Pseudonitzschia| and that oceanic cell isolates are toxic. Given the negative effects of DA in coastal food webs| these findings raise serious concern over the net benefit and sustainability of large-scale iron fertilizations. 10867,2010,3,3,Is aerosol scattering in the stratosphere a safety technology preventing global warming?,In accordance with numerous investigations| global climate warming due to the increased greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere can significantly influence the environment already in the near decades. In order to mitigate or prevent possible adverse consequences of this warming the technologies on reducing greenhouse gas emissions as well as a deliberate interference with climate| including its control| are under consideration. Let us analyze the present investigations on the estimate of the influence of a simultaneous increase in the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and in the stratospheric aerosol on the global and regional climate| ozone layer| and World Ocean acidification. It is noted that the production and subsequent maintenance of the artificial aerosol layer in the stratosphere could| in principle| eliminate or retard climate warming| but it would be accompanied by a decrease in the global precipitation| especially in the tropical zone. Furthermore| the stratospheric aerosol screen does not solve the problem of the atmospheric CO(2) increase| which in turn results in the further World Ocean acidification| and thus has an adverse effect on the marine part of the biosphere. Political and ethic issues connected with the deliberate global man interference with the natural environment are also under considerations. 11282,2010,2,4,Is an integrated farm more resilient against climate change? A micro-econometric analysis of portfolio diversification in African agriculture,This paper examines whether an integrated farm that owns both crops and livestock is more resilient under global warming than a specialized farm in crops. Using around 9000 farm surveys across Africa| we explore how farmers choose one of the farm types and how the net revenue of each type varies across the range of climate in Africa. The results indicate that an integrated farm increases in number while a specialized farm decreases across Africa under climate predictions for 2060. The relative profitability of each system against each other also changes. An integrated farm becomes relatively more profitable over specialized farms half a century from now. The impacts of climate change on integrated farms range from 9% loss to 27% gain depending on climate scenarios. Behavioral models can capture portfolio diversification benefits that agro-economic models cannot measure. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11076,2010,4,3,Is the basin-wide warming in the North Atlantic Ocean related to atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming?,A basin-wide warming in the North Atlantic Ocean has occurred since the mid-1990s; however| the cause of this basin-wide warming is controversial. Some studies argued that the warming is due to global warming in association with the secular increase of the atmospheric greenhouse gas of carbon dioxide (CO(2))| while others suggested that it is caused by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) - an oscillatory mode occurring in North Atlantic sea surface temperature. Here we show that both global warming and AMO variability make a contribution to the recent basin wide warming in the North Atlantic and their relative contribution is approximately equal. It is further shown that after removing a linear trend and the seasonal cycle| atmospheric CO(2) measured from 1958-2008 varies approximately with the AMO. On the assumption that a linear trend can be removed from the CO(2) time series| then there are suggestive similarities between CO(2) and AMO temperature anomalies. That is| atmospheric CO(2) increases (decreases) when the AMO is in the warm (cold) phase. This would suggest that the recent basin-wide warming of the North Atlantic might contribute to global ocean warming via its associated increase of atmospheric CO(2). Citation: Wang| C.| and S. Dong (2010)| Is the basin-wide warming in the North Atlantic Ocean related to atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L08707| doi: 10.1029/2010GL042743. 11012,2010,2,4,Is winter monsoon rainfall over South Peninsular India increasing in global warming era?,The long term (1871-2006) tendencies of Winter Monsoon Rainfall (WMR) over the five meteorological subdivisions of South Peninsular (SP) India and SP India as a whole are evaluated. These tendencies are compared with those of Global Warming (GW) era (1970-2006). It is found that during GW period| the SP India and the subdivisions experienced high positive tendencies. Further| it is observed that an increase in WMR is closely associated with the weakening of Southern Oscillation Index (SO!)| the increasing of north south temperature gradient over the Bay of Bengal and the intensification of westerly jet stream. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 564,2010,5,4,Isotopes reveal limited effects of middle Pleistocene climate change on the ecology of mid-sized mammals,To better understand how past climatic change influenced mammalian communities| we used fossils from the Pit Locality of Porcupine Cave| to evaluate how two taxa responded to climatic events spanning two glacial-interglacial transitions of the middle Pleistocene in Colorado. We analyzed the isotopes of carbon| oxygen and strontium in 84 specimens of rabbits and marmots to infer (1) if feeding and habitat preferences differed across glacial-interglacial transitions| and (2) whether these taxa responded similarly and synchronously to climatic events. Our results showed no significant differences in any of the isotopic values within taxa across levels. Stable carbon isotope values revealed a C(3)-dominated environment around Porcupine Cave during the middle Pleistocene| similar to what is present around the cave today. Oxygen isotopes did not change significantly across levels suggesting consistent water sources over time and preventing any correlation to the Marine Isotope Stages. Marmots did show significantly more positive oxygen isotope values than rabbits over most of the Pit levels likely indicative of hibernation. Lack of significant change in Sr isotopes indicates similarity in habitat range through time| or homogenization of landscape Sr values due to atmospheric inputs. These results suggest that middle Pleistocene climatic change had a negligible effect on the ecology of the sampled individuals around Porcupine Cave. The effects of climate on mammals are complex and these results cannot be extrapolated globally; research is needed to differentiate how global climate change affects mammals in different regions and of different life history to provide insight into how current global warming will affect extant species. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 10486,2010,5,3,Isotopic evidence for an anomalously low oceanic sulfate concentration following end-Permian mass extinction,The cataclysmic end-Permian mass extinction was immediately followed by a global expansion of microbial ecosystems| as demonstrated by widespread microbialite sequences (disaster facies) in shallow water settings. Here we present high-resolution carbonate carbon (delta(13)C(carb)) and carbonate-associated sulfate-sulfur isotope (delta(34)S(CAS)) records from the microbialite in the Cili Permian-Triassic (P-Tr) section in South China. A stepwise decline in delta(13)C(carb) begins in the underlying skeletal limestone| predating the main oceanic mass extinction and the first appearance of microbialite| and reaches its nadir in the upper part of the microbialite layer. The corresponding delta(34)S(CAS)| in the range of 17.4 parts per thousand to 27.4 parts per thousand| is relatively stable in the underlying skeletal limestone| and increases gradually from 2 m below the microbialite rising to a peak at the base of the microbialite. Two episodes of positive and negative shifts occurred within the microbialite layer| and exhibit a remarkable co-variance of sulfur and carbon isotope composition. The large amplitude of the variation in delta(34)S(CAS)| as high as 7 parts per thousand per 100 kiloyears| suggests a small oceanic sulfate reservoir size at this time. Furthermore| the delta(13)C(carb) and delta(34)S(CAS) records co-vary without phase lag throughout the microbialite interval| implying a marine-driven C cycle in an anoxic ocean with anomalously low oceanic sulfate concentrations. On the basis of a non-steady-state box model| we argue that the oceanic sulfate concentration may have fallen to less than 15%| perhaps as low as 3%| of that in the modern oceans. Low oceanic sulfate concentration likely was the consequence of evaporite deposition and widespread anoxic/sulfidic conditions prior to the main mass extinction. By promoting methanogenesis and a build-up of atmospheric CH(4) and CO(2)| low oceanic sulfate may have intensified global warming| exacerbating the inimical environmental conditions of the latest Permian. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11095,2010,3,3,ISSUES AND UNCERTAINTIES AFFECTING METRICS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS ON CLIMATE,Metrics such as radiative forcing and global warming potential have proven to be useful tools in climate policy-related studies| including evaluation of the effects of aviation on climate| to relate different emissions to one another in order to maximize the application of mitigation policies and their benefits. In order to be an effective tool for policymakers and their communication with scientists and industry| a metric should be easy to use and as scientifically well grounded as possible. Thus| the best metrics will be simple and will include uncertainties that reflect the state of knowledge in order to give users confidence in their scientific quality. A concern with developing new metrics is the need to weigh their applicability against the ease of understanding the results. Radiative forcing is commonly used in analyses of aviation effects on climate and is integral to other metrics| but it has known deficiencies. Well-recognized metrics like global warming potential and global temperature potential are dependent on radiative forcing but also have their own advantages and recognized limitations. Simplified integrated assessment modeling may eventually represent a useful alternative to such metrics. The objective of this study is to examine the capabilities and limitations of current climate metrics in the context of the aviation impact on climate change| to analyze key uncertainties associated with these metrics and| to the extent possible| to make recommendations on future research and development of metrics to gauge aviation-induced climate change that could potentially affect decision making| including aircraft design and operations. 11373,2010,5,4,Kaolinite peaks in early Toarcian profiles from the Polish Basin - an inferred record of global warming,In lower Toarcian clay deposits (Ciechocinek Fm.| VIII depositional sequence of the Lower Jurassic) from three borcholes from the Polish Basin| illite-dominated sedimentation representing the lower part of studied interval was interrupted by enhanced kaolinite input. Levels of high kaolinite/illite ratio at the VIIIb/VIIIc parasequence boundary suggest strong continental weathering| in a humid-subtropical to tropical climate related to the phase of the early Toarcian global warming recorded at the top of the tenuicostatum Zone and correlated wills isotope curves from a number of European sections. Kaolinite enrichment may be locally enhanced by reworking of pre-Jurassic kaolinitic rocks and differential settling. Diagenetic processes were not sufficient enough to transform the initial kaolinite. but may have altered smectite and mixed-layers into illite and/or chlorite. 516,2010,2,4,Key Technical Challenges for the Electric Power Industry and Climate Change,This paper| prepared by the Climate Change Technology Subcommittee| a subcommittee of the Power and Energy Society Energy Development and Power Generation Committee| identifies key technical issues facing the electric power industry| related to global climate change. The technical challenges arise from: 1) impacts on system operating strategies| configuration| and expansion plans of emission-reducing technologies; 2) power infrastructure response to extreme weather events; 3) effects of government policies including an expanded use of renewable and alternative energy technologies; and 4) impacts of market rules on power system operation. Possible lessons from other industries' responses to climate change are explored. 10396,2010,4,4,Kinetic Study of OH Radical Reactions with CF(3)CCl=CCl(2)| CF(3)CCl=CClCF(3) and CF(3)CF=CFCF(3),The relative rate technique has been used to determine the rate constants of the reactions of OH radicals with CF(3)CCl=CCl(2) (k(1))| CF(3)CCl=CClCF(3) (k(2)) and CF(3)CF=CFCF(3) (k(3)). Experiments were carried out at (298 +/- 2) K and atmospheric pressure using ultrapure nitrogen as gas bath. The decay rates of the organic species were measured relative to those of ethane| methanol| acetone| chloroethane and 2-butanone. The following rate constants were derived in units of cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1): k(1)=(10 +/- 1) x 10(-13)| k(2)=(2.1 +/- 0.2) x 10(-13) and k(3)=(3.7 +/- 0.2) x 10(-13). This is the first experimental determination of k(1) and k(2). The rate constants obtained are compared with previous literature data to establish reactivity trends and are used to estimate the atmospheric lifetimes of the studied perhaloalkenes. From the calculated lifetimes| using an average global concentration of hydroxyl radicals| the atmospheric loss of these compounds by the OH-initiated oxidation was determined. Also| estimations have been made of the ozone depletion potential (ODP)| the radiative forcing efficiency (RE)| the halocarbon global warming potential (HGWP) and the global warming potential (GWP) of the perhaloalkenes. The approximate nature of these values is stressed considering that these are short-lived compounds for which these atmospheric parameters may vary according to latitude and season. 10774,2010,4,4,Kinetic Study of the Gas-Phase Reaction of Hydroxyl Radical with CF(3)CH(2)OCH(2)CF(3) Using the Laser Photolysis-Laser Induced Fluorescence Method,The laser photolysis-laser-induced fluorescence method was used for measuring the kinetic parameters of the reaction of OH radicals with CF(3)CH(2)OCH(2)CF(3) (2|2|2-trifluoroethyl ether)| in the temperature range of 298-365 K. The bimolecular rate coefficient at 298 K| k(11) (298)| was measured to be (1.47 +/- 0.03) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| and the temperature dependence of k(11) was determined to be (4.5 +/- 0.8) x 10(-12) exp[-(1030 +/- 60)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The error quoted is 1 sigma of the linear regression of the respective plots. The rate coefficient at room temperature is very close to the average of the three previous measurements| whereas the values of E(a)/ R and the A-factor are higher than the two previously reported values. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals| Inc. Int J Chem Kinet 42: 519-525| 2010 11025,2010,4,4,Kinetic study of the OH reaction with some hydrochloroethers under simulated atmospheric conditions,Using the relative rate technique| rate constants for the gas-phase reactions of hydroxyl radicals with 2-chloroethyl methyl ether (k(1))| 2-chloroethyl ethyl ether (k(2)) and bis(2-chloroethyl) ether (k(3)) have been measured. Experiments were carried out at (298 2) K and atmospheric pressure using synthetic air as bath gas. Using n-pentane and n-heptane as reference compounds| the following rate constants were derived: k(1) = (5.2 +/- 1.2) x 10(-12)| k(2) = (8.3 +/- 1.9) x 10(-12) and k(3) = (7.6 +/- 1.9) x 10(-12)| in units of cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). This is the first experimental determination of k(2) and k(3) under atmospheric pressure. The rate constants obtained are compared with previous literature data and the observed trends in the relative rates of reaction of hydroxyl radicals with the ethers studied are discussed. The atmospheric implications of the results are considered in terms of lifetimes and fates of the hydrochloroethers studied. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 483,2010,2,4,Knowledge and awareness of heat-related morbidity among adult recreational endurance athletes,Adults have been increasingly motivated to compete in recreational endurance sports events. Amateurs may lack a complete understanding of recommended strategies for handling heat and humidity| making heat-related illnesses increasingly possible. This is compounded by global climate change and increasing average surface and air temperatures| especially in urban areas of industrialized nations in Europe and North America that have hosted most events to date. We conducted an on-line| secure survey at the 2nd Annual ING Georgia Marathon and Half-Marathon in Atlanta| Georgia| in 2008. We included previously validated questions on participant socio-demographics| training locations| and knowledge and awareness of heat-related illnesses. Participants were aware of heat illnesses| and of heat stroke as a serious form of heat stress. However| the majority| across age and gender| did not understand the potential severity of heat stroke. Furthermore| 1-in-5 participants did not understand the concept of heat stress as a form of heat-related illness| and how heat stress may result from buildup of muscle-generated heat in the body. Adult recreational endurance athletes are another susceptible| vulnerable population sub-group for applied research and public health educational interventions| especially in urban areas of industrialized nations in Europe and North America. 11298,2010,2,4,Land use practices and ectomycorrhizal fungal communities from oak woodlands dominated by Quercus suber L. considering drought scenarios,Oak woodlands in the Mediterranean basin have been traditionally converted into agro-silvo-pastoral systems and exemplified sustainable land use in Europe. In Portugal| in line with the trend of other European countries| profound changes in management options during the twentieth century have led to landscape simplification. Landscapes are dynamic and the knowledge of future management planning combining biological conservation and soil productivity is needed| especially under the actual scenarios of drought and increasing evidence of heavy oak mortality. We examined the ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungal community associated with cork oak in managed oak woodlands (called montado) under different land use practices| during summer. ECM fungal richness and abundance were assessed in 15 stands established in nine montados located in the Alentejo region (southern Portugal)| using morphotyping and ITS rDNA analysis. Parameters related to the montados landscape characteristics| land use history over the last 25 years| climatic and edaphic conditions were taken into account. Fifty-five ECM fungal taxa corresponding to the most abundant fungal symbionts were distinguished on cork oak roots. Cenococcum geophilum and the families Russulaceae and Thelephoraceae explained 56% of the whole ECM fungal community; other groups were represented among the community: Cortinariaceae| Boletaceae| Amanita| Genea| Pisolithus| Scleroderma| and Tuber. There were pronounced differences in ECM fungal community structure among the 15 montados stands: C. geophilum was the only species common to all stands| tomentelloid and russuloid species were detected in 87-93% of the stands| Cortinariaceae was detected in 60% of the stands| and the other groups were more unequally distributed. Ordination analysis revealed that ECM fungal richness was positively correlated with the silvo-pastoral exploitation regime and low mortality of cork oak| while ECM fungal abundance was positively correlated with extensive agro-silvo-pastoral exploitation under a traditional 9-year rotation cultivation system and recent soil tillage. The effects of land use on the ECM fungal community and its implications in different scenarios of landscape management options| oak mortality| and global warming are discussed. 10793,2010,5,3,Land-Ocean Asymmetry of Tropical Precipitation Changes in the Mid-Holocene,A series of model experiments were conducted using an intermediate ocean atmosphere land model for a better understanding of a distinct land sea asymmetry in tropical precipitation differences between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial climates. In austral (boreal) summer| most reduced (enhanced) precipitation occurs over continental convective regions| while most enhanced (reduced) precipitation occurs over oceanic convection zones. This land sea asymmetry of tropical precipitation is particularly clear in austral summer. During the mid-Holocene| the solar forcing presents both spatial and seasonal asymmetric patterns. While the boreal summer insolation is stronger at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the mid-Holocene than at present| the austral summer insolation is weaker with a more spatially symmetric distribution about the equator. Because of the slow response time of the ocean to forcing| the direct insolation forcing of the current season is cancelled by the ocean memory of an earlier insolation forcing| which in the case of the mid-Holocene is opposite to the current season insolation forcing. As a result| tropical sea surface temperature variation| as well as the tropical atmospheric temperature and moisture changes| is small| which gives rise to a different precipitation response from under the condition of stronger atmospheric temperature and moisture changes| such as in the case of postindustrial global warming induced by an increased concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Thus| the cancellation between the direct and memory effects of the seasonally asymmetric insolation forcing leaves the net energy into the atmosphere to be responsible for the land sea asymmetry of tropical precipitation changes. 10717,2010,2,4,Land-use changes as major drivers of mountain pine (Pinus uncinata Ram.) expansion in the Pyrenees,Aim To assess the spatial patterns of forest expansion (encroachment and densification) for mountain pine (Pinus uncinata Ram.) during the last 50 years at a whole mountain range scale by the study of different topographic and socio-economic potential drivers in the current context of global change. Location The study area includes the whole distributional area of mountain pine in the Catalan Pyrenees (north-east Spain). This represents more than 80 municipalities| covering a total area of 6018 km2. Methods Forest cover was obtained by image reclassification of more than 200 pairs of aerial photographs taken in 1956 and 2006. Encroachment and densification were determined according to changes in forest cover| and were expressed as binary variables on a 150 x 150 m cell-size grid. We then used logistic regression to analyse the effects of several topographic and socio-economic variables on forest expansion. Results In the period analysed| mountain pine increased its surface coverage by 8898 ha (an increase of more than 16%). Mean canopy cover rose from 31.0% in 1956 to 55.6% in 2006. Most of the expansion was found on north-facing slopes and at low altitudes. Socio-economic factors arose as major factors in mountain pine expansion| as encroachment rates were higher in municipalities with greater population losses or weaker primary sector development. Main conclusions The spatial patterns of mountain pine expansion showed a good match with the main patterns of land-use change in the Pyrenees| suggesting that land-use changes have played a more important role than climate in driving forest dynamics at a landscape scale over the period studied. Further studies on forest expansion at a regional scale should incorporate patterns of land-use changes to correctly interpret drivers of forest encroachment and densification. 10696,2010,2,4,Land-use type and temperature affect gross nitrogen transformation rates in Chinese and Canadian soils,Land-use type affects gross nitrogen transformation and this information is particularly lacking under varied low temperature conditions. In this study| the effects of land-use type (forest vs. grassland) and temperature (10 vs. 15 degrees C) on gross N transformation rates under aerobic conditions were investigated using the (15)N isotope pool dilution technique in the laboratory. Soils were collected from forest and grassland sites in China and Canada. The results showed that gross N mineralization and immobilization rates were significantly higher in forest soils than in grassland soils| while the reverse was true for gross nitrification rates. The higher TC and lower SOCw concentrations in the Chinese soils relative to the Canadian soils were related to the greater gross N mineralization rates and lower gross N immobilization rates in Chinese soils. The greater gross N mineralization rates and lower gross N immobilization rates resulted in much higher inorganic N accumulation and that may increase the risk of NO(3)(-) leaching in the Chinese soils. Increasing temperature significantly increased gross nitrification rates in grassland soils and gross N immobilization rates in forest soils| suggesting that grassland soils maybe more vulnerable to N loss through NO(3)(-) leaching or denitrification (when conditions for denitrification exist) and that conversion of grassland to forest soils may exert less negative effects on the environment by promoting the retention of N and decreasing the production of NO(3)(-) and subsequently the risk of NO(3)(-) leaching under increasing temperature by global warming. 10930,2010,2,4,Larger zooplankton in Danish lakes after cold winters: are winter fish kills of importance?,Winter fish kills can be intense under ice in shallow lakes| and have cascading effects on the food web and ultimately on lake water clarity. In maritime Western Europe| winters are usually mild| but occasional colder periods may also have strong effects on lake fish communities. Global warming may have disproportionate effects by delaying freezing and shortening the period of ice coverage. We studied differences in zooplankton (cladocerans| copepods| and rotifers): phytoplankton biomass| zooplankton community structure| and individual body size among 37 Danish lakes of various depths| chemical characteristics| and trophy| by comparing four winters of different severity (mean winter temperatures ranging from -1.19A degrees C in 1996 to +2.9A degrees C in 1995). We found that crustacean mean body sizes were significantly larger in the summer following a severely cold winter. The zooplankton communities in the summer after a cold winter had a significantly larger proportion of larger-bodied species and taxa. Phytoplankton biomass| expressed as chlorophyll-a (chl-a)| was lower and zooplankton herbivory (chl-a:TP index)| higher| in the summer after the severely cold winter of 1995/1996. All these effects were stronger in shallow lakes than in deep lakes. Changes in zooplankton during summer 1996| compared with other years| were likely caused by fish kills under ice during the preceding severe winter of 1995-1996. Fish kills due to under ice oxygen depletion would be expected to occur earlier and be more complete in the shorter water columns of shallow lakes. With climate change| severe winters are predicted to become less frequent and the winters to be milder and shorter. In general| this is likely to lead to higher winter survival of fish| lower zooplankton grazing of phytoplankton the following summer and more turbid waters| particularly in shallow eutrophic lakes. 656,2010,5,4,Late Ordovician shelly faunas from Jamtland: palaeocommunity development along the margin of the Swedish Caledonides,Late Ordovician shelly faunas occur at several localities in the Ostersund area of Jamtland (Sweden) and developed against a background of intense and rapid global climate change. In the eastern part| approximately in the middle parts of the Krykas Quartzite| and in the western part in the uppermost Kogsta Siltstone changes in faunas and sedimentary patterns provide regional evidence of these global events. In both areas the faunas occur in shale and siltstone facies and are used to effect correlations between the eastern and western parts of the region| which show major differences in facies development. These sub-basins| situated on the margins of a developing mountain belt| reacted differently to global signals providing further evidence of the heterogeneous responses to climate change at the end of the Ordovician Period. 607,2010,5,4,Late Pleistocene to early Holocene lake level and paleoclimate insights from Stansbury Island| Bonneville basin| Utah,This paper reports on recent multiproxy research conducted to determine the chronology of lake-level fluctuations recorded in sediments from a natural exposure at a classic Bonneville basin site. Grain size| carbonate percentage| magnetic susceptibility| amount of charcoal| and diatom community composition data were collected from the 16 lacustrine units that compose the 122 cm stratigraphic column in Stansbury Gulch. Trends observed in the measured proxies reveal several significant changes in lake level| and thereby effective moisture| over the approximately 14|500 yr time span represented by the sediments. Results (1) verify the effectiveness of the multiproxy approach in Bonneville basin studies| which has been underutilized in this region| (2) reaffirm the double nature of Lake Bonneville's Stansbury oscillation| (3) Suggest a previously undocumented post-Gilbert highstand of Great Salt Lake| and (4) identify possible teleconnections between climate events in the Bonneville basin and events in the North Atlantic at about 20|500 and 7500 (14)C yr BP. (C) 2009 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 10959,2010,5,2,Late-twentieth-century warming in Lake Tanganyika unprecedented since AD 500,Instrumental observations suggest that Lake Tanganyika| the largest rift lake in East Africa| has become warmer| increasingly stratified and less productive over the past 90 years (refs 1|2). These trends have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However| it remains unclear whether the decrease in productivity is linked to the temperature rise(3|4)| and whether the twentieth-century trends are anomalous within the context of longer-term variability. Here| we use the TEX(86) temperature proxy| the weight per cent of biogenic silica and charcoal abundance from Lake Tanganyika sediment cores to reconstruct lake-surface temperature| productivity and regional wildfire frequency| respectively| for the past 1|500 years. We detect a negative correlation between lake-surface temperature and primary productivity| and our estimates of fire frequency| and hence humidity| preclude decreased nutrient input through runoff as a cause for observed periods of low productivity. We suggest that| throughout the past 1|500 years| rising lake-surface temperatures increased the stratification of the lake water column| preventing nutrient recharge from below and limiting primary productivity. Our records indicate that changes in the temperature of Lake Tanganyika in the past few decades exceed previous natural variability. We conclude that these unprecedented temperatures and a corresponding decrease in productivity can be attributed to anthropogenic global warming| with potentially important implications for the Lake Tanganyika fishery. 10438,2010,5,4,Lateritized tephric palaeosols from Central Patagonia| Argentina: a southern high-latitude archive of Palaeogene global greenhouse conditions,Palaeosols of the Koluel-Kaike Formation| a red colour-banded| pyroclastic succession from southern Argentina| constitute a proxy for Eocene climate changes. Reticulated and vertically elongated ferric mottles| along with iron and manganese nodules are the most significant climate indicators| which originated by alternating cycles of waterlogging and drying conditions causing Fe-Mn mobilization and fixation. Clay minerals vary from a kaolinite > smectite suite in the lower and middle sections| to a smectite > kaolinite one in the upper part. High concentrations of iron oxides/hydroxides and kaolinite| lack of exchangeable bases| absence of carbonate cement| presence of ironstone and redness of hue in most of the palaeosols suggest intense chemical weathering related to leaching and lateritization processes. Five pedotypes| ordered in a stratigraphic sense| were identified. Strongly developed| red to orange Chornk (Fragiaquult) and Kapenk (Plinthaquult) pedotypes display argillic horizons| abundant ferric nodules and slickensides; they are dominant in the lower and middle sections| and formed in seasonal humid and megathermic (tropical) conditions with a mean annual precipitation of 1200 to 1300 mm and a mean annual temperature of 15 degrees C. Weakly developed| less structured Ornek (Vitrand) and Polnek (Placaquand) pedotypes occur in the middle and upper sections| and originated in sub-humid and mesic-megathermic conditions with a mean annual precipitation around 1000 mm and a mean annual temperature around 12 degrees C. The brownish Soorsh (Argialboll) pedotype exhibits a granular structure and is present at the uppermost part of the unit. It developed in sub-humid/semi-arid and mesic conditions| with a mean annual precipitation of 600 to 700 mm and a mean annual temperature around 10 degrees C. This pedotype succession and clay mineral distribution indicates a decrease in chemical weathering and degree of soil development with time. Koluel-Kaike palaeosols from Central Patagonia are some of the first continental non-palaeobiological data linked to the Early Palaeogene global warming in South America; they show an especially close relationship with the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum and the following long-term cooling and drying initiated by Middle to Late Eocene time. 11291,2010,2,4,Latest Advances in Climate Change Detection Techniques,In recent years| the global warming and it influences on people and social economy have received increasing attention from international communities. Determining the current trend of global temperature variation has become one of the critical issues in climate change research. Obviously| it is rather important to develop new climate change detection technology in order to identify new characteristics of the global warming. This review introduces the latest advances and past achievements on the climate change detection technology in China with emphases on new detection methods in the following five aspects: (1) abrupt climate change detection| (2) signal separation and extraction from observed data| (3) intrinsic complexity of the climate system| (4) recognition of the dynamical characteristics of the climate system| and (5) definitions and detection of extreme events. At last| some cruxes and key problems in the current climate change detection technology research are briefly discussed. 617,2010,5,4,Latitudinal migration of calcareous nannofossil Micula murus in the Maastrichtian: Implications for global climate change,Micula murus is one of the main calcareous nannofossil biostratigrapic markers of Tethyan and Intermediate provinces in the upper Maastrichtian (uppermost Cretaceous). A review of its first occurrence at 14 deep-sea sites and sections shows that it is time transgressive from the Tropical Realm of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans to the intermediate latitudes of the North Atlantic| South Atlantic| Indian Ocean| and the northern Tethys. M. murus remained confined to the Tropical Realm for similar to 1.2 m.y. in the early-late Maastrichtian| thus supporting high-latitudinal thermal gradients. It subsequently spread out in the late Maastrichtian to temperate latitudes and to the Tethys in coincidence with the onset of a thermohaline circulation change ca. 67.5 Ma| suggesting a major change in surface-water circulation and interocean communications. 10956,2010,3,4,LCA comparison of container systems in municipal solid waste management,The planning and design of integrated municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems requires accurate environmental impact evaluation of the systems and their components. This research assessed| quantified and compared the environmental impact of the first stage of the most used MSW container systems. The comparison was based on factors such as the volume of the containers| from small bins of 60-80 Ito containers of 2400 l| and on the manufactured materials| steel and high-density polyethylene (HDPE). Also| some parameters such as frequency of collections| waste generation| filling percentage and waste container contents| were established to obtain comparable systems. The methodological framework of the analysis was the life cycle assessment (LCA)| and the impact assessment method was based on CML 2 baseline 2000. Results indicated that| for the same volume| the collection systems that use HDPE waste containers had more of an impact than those using steel waste containers| in terms of abiotic depletion| global warming| ozone layer depletion| acidification| eutrophication| photochemical oxidation| human toxicity and terrestrial ecotoxicity. Besides| the collection systems using small HDPE bins (60 l or 80 l) had most impact while systems using big steel containers (2400 l) had less impact. Subsequent sensitivity analysis about the parameters established demonstrated that they could change the ultimate environmental impact of each waste container collection system| but that the comparative relationship between systems was similar. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10719,2010,3,4,LCA of comprehensive pig manure management incorporating integrated technology systems,Increased and intensified pig production has raised the needs for proper management systems of pig manure in order to reduce negative environmental impacts. The objectives of this study were to identify the most significant environmental impacts from pig manure management considering a wide range of impact categories and to determine which integrated technology system at which handling stage can achieve the highest impact reduction. Twelve scenarios applying various treatment| storage and land application systems were developed and compared. Life cycle assessment (LCA) with the aim of capturing the actual consequences of the considered scenarios was selected as the tool for impact quantification. The most important impact categories in this investigation are global warming (GWP)| aquatic eutrophication (AEP)| respiratory inorganics (RIP)| and terrestrial eutrophication (TEP). The two latter impacts| caused by ammonia emissions| have not been widely considered in most of previous LCA studies on pig manure management. The main keys for the effective impact reduction are the integration of treatment technology systems aiming at energy recovery with high nutrient recovery and control of greenhouse gas| ammonia| and nitrate emissions at every handling stage. For GWP and AEP| the anaerobic digestion-based scenario with natural crust storage achieves the highest impact reduction because of high efficiencies in energy and nutrient recovery with restricted emissions of GHG and nitrate. For RIP and TEP| the incineration and thermal gasification based scenarios and the scenario without a treatment system applying the deep injection method yield the highest impact minimisation due to the lowest ammonia emissions. This study further indicates the need to consider all significant impacts to decide the best management options taking into consideration local conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 389,2010,2,4,Leaf physiological responses to extreme droughts in Mediterranean Quercus ilex forest,Global climate change is expected to result in more frequent and intense droughts in the Mediterranean region. To understand forest response to severe drought| we used a mobile rainfall shelter to examine the impact of spring and autumn rainfall exclusion on stomatal (S(L)) and non-stomatal (NS(L)) limitations of photosynthesis in a Quercus ilex ecosystem. Spring rainfall exclusion| carried out during increasing atmospheric demand and leaf development| had a larger impact on photosynthesis than autumn exclusion| conducted at a time of mature foliage and decreasing vapour pressure deficit. The relative importance of NS(L) increased with drought intensity. S(L) and NS(L) were equal once total limitation (T(L)) reached 60%| but NS(L) greatly exceeded S(L) during severe drought| with 76% NS(L) partitioned equally between mesophyll conductance (MC(L)) and biochemical (B(L)) limitations when T(L) reached 100%. Rainfall exclusion altered the relationship between leaf water potential and photosynthesis. In response to severe mid-summer drought stress| A(n) and V(cmax) were 75% and 72% lower in the spring exclusion plot than in the control plot at the same pre-dawn leaf water potential. Our results revealed changes in the relationship between photosynthetic parameters and water stress that are not currently included in drought parameterizations for modelling applications. 10946,2010,3,4,Learning together| growing apart: Global warming| energy policy and international trust,Standard models of uncertainty in economics imply that sharing information can reduce uncertainty and help identify welfare improving policies. In international relations| "epistemic communities" of scientists are thought to help provide information for these purposes. However| conflicting preferences can frustrate the transmission of information and prevent effective information sharing. In addition| opportunities for information sharing can deepen distrust as actors observe each other's reaction to what to them is credible information. A model that assumes uncertainty both about the state of the world and the parties' motivations is applied to international climate change negotiations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 554,2010,3,3,Least-cost adaptation options for global climate change impacts on the Brazilian electric power system,Global climate change induced by the emission of greenhouse gases may pose challenges to energy security. The vulnerability of energy sources| in particular of renewable sources| to climate change raises the need to identify adaptation measures. This paper applies an integrated resource planning approach to calculate least-cost adaptation measures to a set of projected climate impacts on the Brazilian power sector. The methodology used has the advantage of finding optimal solutions that take into consideration the whole energy chain and the interactions between energy supply and demand. Results point in the direction of an increased installed capacity based| mostly| on natural gas| but also sugarcane bagasse| wind power and coal/nuclear plants| to compensate for a lower reliability of hydroelectric production| amongst other impacts. The indirect effect of these results is the displacement of natural gas from other consuming sectors| such as industry| in favor of its use for power generation. Results obtained are| however| based on the techno-economic premises used in the simulation| which may vary in the long term. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11183,2010,3,4,Let us go green ...,The field of environmental science and technology is highly interdisciplinary. It brings together knowledge and expertise from variety of disciplines ranging from different aspects of ecology to chemistry| microbiology to statistics| soil science to biology and water management to toxicology. Environmental or atmospheric scientists are not the stereotype alarmists who press the siren button of 'global warming' but they strive and employ trans-disciplinary knowledge to develop science and technology based strategy to address the sustainability of air| water and soil. Moreover| the responsibility of protecting the environment could not be solely allocated onto the shoulder of an environmental scientist| but in order to preserve and safeguard the air that we breathe| the water that we drink and the land we step in| each of us the chemists| the physicists| and the biologists should strategically design our research in a more environmentally friendly manner or employing green methods. 10860,2010,3,4,Life Cycle Assessment Integrated into Positive Mathematical Programming: A Conceptual Model for Analyzing Area-Based Farming Policy,The objective of this study was to integrate process life cycle assessment (LCA) into an activity-based microeconoinic model of production to quantify environmental impacts induced by economic incentives imposed on individual producers. The economic incentives may include price changes| technological innovations and governmental taxes/subsidies that are beyond the scope of Input-Output-based LCA. In this approach| however| traditional normative activity analysis hardly reproduces the observed input variables referred to as "reference point"| as is often the case with linear programming model widely used for farm management. Consequently| the resultant LCA deviates from the original LCA that is evaluated at the reference point. This study made an attempt to bridge the gap between the theoretically derived LCA and the original process LCA by introducing the positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach| which was established by Howitt. The PMP-based LCA was applied to conventional and reduced tillage farming systems in Hokkaido| northern Japan| to consider its potential for analyzing an area-based farm policy and to discuss several limitations to be addressed in future research.
10910,2010,3,3,Life Cycle Assessment of a Palm Oil System with Simultaneous Production of Biodiesel and Cooking Oil in Cameroon,The use of palm oil as a biofuel has been heavily debated for its land-use conflict with nature and its competition with food production| being the number one cooking oil worldwide. In that context| we present a life cycle assessment of a palm oil production process yielding both biodiesel and cooking oil| incorporating the land-use impact and evaluating the effect of treating the palm oil mill effluent (POME) prior to disposal. The results show that the nonrenewable energy requirement| global warming potential (GWP; exclusive land-use change)| and acidification potential are lower than those of the fossil alternative. However| the system triggers an increase in eutrophication potential (EP) compared to the fossil fuel reference. This system shows less energy requirement| global warming and acidification reduction| and less eutrophication increase compared to the reference than the same system converting all palm oil into biodiesel (no cooking oil production). The land occupation of palm oil triggers ecosystem quality (Ea) loss of 30-45% compared to the potential natural vegetation. Furthermore| such land-use change triggers a carbon debt neutralizing the GWP reduction for 45-53 years. The POME treatment scenarios reveal a trade-off between GWP and EP. 11482,2010,3,4,Life cycle assessment of a rice production system in Taihu region| China,In this study| a life cycle assessment (LCA) method was used to examine the environmental impact of the rice production system in Taihu region| China. The LCA considered the entire system required to produce 1 t of rice. The analysis included raw material extraction and transportation| agrochemical production and transportation| and arable farming in the field. The result shows that the significance of environmental impacts| followed by aquatic eutrophication| water depletion| global warming| acidification| and energy depletion. As such| reducing nitrogen (N) fertilizer intensity and increasing utilization efficiency are the key points to control the life cycle environmental impacts of rice| which would decrease resource consumption and emissions not only directly in the arable farming subsystem but also indirectly in the upstream production stage. Strengthening water management| especially in the early growth stage| and reduction of paddy field water discharge are also significant measures with which to minimize N and phosphorus (P) runoff losses and control acidification potential (AP) and aquatic eutrophication potential (AEP)| so as to reduce life cycle environmental impacts of the rice production system. 10554,2010,3,4,Life cycle assessment of Australian sugarcane production with a focus on sugarcane growing,Past life cycle assessments (LCA) of sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) production have commonly been based on limited datasets| and variability has not been well described. In this work| Australian sugarcane production was assessed more comprehensively in order to generate a robust set of LCA results for use in subsequent assessments of sugarcane products and also to investigate: (1) variability due to regional differences| (2) factors influencing variability| and (3) significance of the impacts. An average scenario for Australian sugarcane production was modeled based on data for the state of Queensland (98% of Australian production). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) results were generated using Impact 2002+| modified to be more representative of Australian conditions| and with the inclusion of water use and land use indicators. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis| using minimum and maximum values for production data| was undertaken to evaluate variability. Different regional production practices were also modeled to identify factors that influence variability. Normalization aimed to show the significance of total Australian sugarcane production relative to total Australian impacts. Considerable variability was found in the LCIA results| with the key variables being yield| N use efficiency| the susceptibility of soils to N leakage| irrigation (water and energy intensity)| and pre-harvest burning. N leakage was found to be an important issue that influences a range of impact categories. When normalized against total national impacts| water use and land use appear to be the most significant impacts (based on simple indicators of consumption)| followed by eutrophication potential| acidification potential| and respiratory impacts| whereas non-renewable energy input and global warming are less significant. The results suggest that toxicity impacts are insignificant; however| this may not be supported by other observations that link pesticide loss from sugarcane to toxicity concerns in receiving waters and is a subject for further research. The potential for significant variability in the impacts from sugarcane growing suggests a need for LCAs of sugarcane systems to consider ranges for key variables. The key variables and significant impacts identified in this work can guide data collection priorities for future assessment of sugarcane and possibly other Australian cropping systems. To further develop LCA as a useful predictive tool for Australian agricultural systems| further development and testing of impact assessment models for eutrophication| toxicity| and land and water resource depletion appropriate for Australia and its subregions will be required. 11512,2010,3,4,Life Cycle Assessment of biomass production in a Mediterranean greenhouse using different water sources: Groundwater| treated wastewater and desalinated seawater,An experimental biomass crop of Nicotiana tabacum was grown over a nine-month period inside a greenhouse situated in Almeria| south-eastern Spain. Two irrigation methods corresponding to treated urban wastewater and groundwater| were arranged. No significant differences were observed in the total biomass produced on the treated wastewater and groundwater plots| which ranged from 17 to 28 kg m(-2)| depending on plant density. Environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was applied in order to gain knowledge of the potential impacts of using either treated wastewater| groundwater| or desalinated water for irrigation. The LCA study included all the processes involved in agricultural production up to the final plant cutting. Since desalinated water was not actually used in the experiment| the experimental data from tobacco irrigated with groundwater was used in the LCA. Impact categories included were: global warming; acidification: water eutrophication; primary energy use; as well as aquatic and terrestrial ecotoxicity. Special attention was put on the ecotoxicity of emerging and priority pollutants in treated wastewater| as well as on soil quality impacts| namely soil organic carbon deficit and soil salinisation. The results show that using desalinated water leads to higher environmental impacts in several impact categories| including global warming| energy use| soil quality| and aquatic ecotoxicity. As an example. primary energy use increases by 80% and 50% as compared to using treated wastewater and groundwater| respectively. On the other hand| wastewater pollutants in irrigation water may involve a relevant contribution to terrestrial ecotoxicity. For this reason| the impact score of the wastewater-irrigated crop is 23% and 35% higher as compared to the crop using desalinated water and groundwater| respectively. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11275,2010,3,3,Life Cycle Assessment of Copper Sulfide-Dispersed Lead-Free Bronze,Inventory analyses of manufacturing systems for Pb-bronze (JIS: CAC406)| Pb-free bronze produced by Bi addition (JIS: CAC902) and copper sulfide-dispersed Pb-free bronze were assessed from the viewpoint of life cycle assessment. The results show that the manufacturing system of copper sulfide-dispersed Pb-free bronze significantly reduces such environmental impacts as energy consumption| global warming| acidification and resource consumption as compared with that of CAC902. [doi:10.2320/matertrans.D-M2009330] 11233,2010,3,4,Life cycle assessment of DRAM in Taiwan's semiconductor industry,The semiconductor industry plays a leading role in supporting economic stabilization and social progress in Taiwan. In this paper| Eco-indicator 95 and Impact 2002+ are utilized to evaluate the potential environmental impacts from five production processes of the double data rate synchronous dynamic random access memory (DDR SDRAM). The comparisons between these two impact methods and their scopes are also discussed. From our results| global warming potential and non-renewable energy consumption were identified as the major environmental impacts. Applications of Eco-indicator 95 and IMPACT 2002+ also suggest that summer smog and respiratory inorganics are significant impact categories. The comparison of the scopes of these two methods identifies that low GWP potential PFCs substitution and electricity saving are effective ways to decrease environmental impacts of DRAM manufacturing. In addition| IMPACT 2002+ is a more applicable LCA method for the semiconductor industry in Taiwan due to the structure and reference area of this method and the characteristics of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11239,2010,4,4,Life cycle assessment of fine chemical production: a case study of pharmaceutical synthesis,Pharmaceuticals have been recently discussed in the press and literature regarding their occurrence in rivers and lakes| mostly due to emissions after use. The production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) has been less analyzed for environmental impacts. In this work| a life cycle assessment (LCA) of the production of an API from cradle to factory gate was carried out. The main sources of environmental impacts were identified. The resulting environmental profile was compared to a second pharmaceutical production and to the production of basic chemicals. Detailed production data of a pharmaceutical production in Basel| Switzerland were used as the basis of this work. Information about the production of precursor chemicals was available as well. Using models and the ecoinvent database to cover remaining data gaps| a full life cycle inventory of the whole production was created. Using several life cycle impact assessment methods| including Cumulative Energy Demand (CED)| Global Warming Potential (GWP)| Eco-Indicator 99 (EI99)| Ecological Scarcity 2006| and TRACI| these results were analyzed and the main sources of environmental burdens identified. Pharmaceutical production was found to have significantly more environmental impacts than basic chemical production in a kilogram-per-kilogram basis. Compared to average basic chemical production| the API analyzed had a CED 20 times higher| a GWP 25 times higher and an EI99 (H/A) 17 times higher. This was expected to a degree| as basic chemicals are much less complex molecules and require significantly fewer chemical transformations and purifications than pharmaceutical compounds. Between 65% and 85% of impacts were found to be caused by energy production and use. The fraction of energy-related impacts increased throughout the production process. Feedstock use was another major contributor| while process emissions not caused by energy production were only minor contributors to the environmental impacts. The results showed that production of APIs has much higher impacts than basic chemical production. This was to be expected given the increased complexity of pharmaceutical compounds as compared with basic chemicals| the smaller production volumes| and the fact that API production lines are often newer and less optimized than the production of more established basic chemicals. The large contributions of energy-related processes highlight the need for a detailed assessment of energy use in pharmaceutical production. The analysis of the energy-related contributions to the overall impacts on a process step level allows a comprehensive understanding of each process' contribution to overall impacts and their energy intensities. Environmental impacts of API production were estimated in a cradle-to-gate boundary. The major contributors to the environmental impacts in aggregating methods were resource consumption and emissions from energy production. Process emissions from the pharmaceutical manufacturing plant itself were less of a concern in developed countries. Producers aiming to increase their sustainability should increase efforts to reduce mass intensity and to improve energy efficiency. Pharmaceutical companies have increased their efforts to optimize resource efficiency and energy use in order to improve their environmental performance. The results of this study can be used as a first step to perform a full cradle to grave LCA of pharmaceutical production and use| which could include other important phases of the pharmaceutical product life cycle. To assess a commercial pharmaceutical| the results of API production have to be compared to the contributions of other ingredients and formulation. 10510,2010,3,3,Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China,A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill| (2) incineration| (3) composting plus landfill| and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios| the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens| respiratory inorganics| terrestrial ecotoxicity| and non-renewable energy. Similarly| the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically| the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration| while potential impact generated from transport| infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition| in the global warming category| highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore| increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10441,2010,3,4,Life Cycle Assessment of fresh and canned mussel processing and consumption in Galicia (NW Spain),The environmental assessment of the processing and consumption of mussels of the species Mytilus galloprovincialis was carried out for both fresh and canned mussels. For this purpose| the application of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was considered. Inventories for mussel purification in dispatch centres and mussel transformation in canning factories were performed| along with those for household consumption of fresh and canned mussels. Environmental characterization results were computed for different impact categories| including abiotic depletion| global warming| ecotoxicity| human toxicity| acidification| ozone layer depletion| photochemical oxidant formation and eutrophication. As a whole| the environmental hot spots for fresh mussel processing included electricity and chlorine gas production| as well as water discharge in dispatch centres. Similarly| the environmental hot spots for canned mussel processing comprised electricity production| can production and transport| oil production| and fuel oil production. Finally| the implementation of the previous mussel culture stage into the LCA of mussel processing and consumption showed the relevant role of the mussel culture system when assessing the potential environmental impacts of mussel-based products. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10982,2010,3,3,Life Cycle Assessment of Frozen Tilapia Fillets From Indonesian Lake-Based and Pond-Based Intensive Aquaculture Systems,We used life cycle assessment to evaluate a subset of the cradle-to-destination-port environmental impacts associated with the production| processing| and transportation of frozen| packaged Indonesian tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) fillets to ports in Chicago and Rotterdam. Specifically| we evaluated the cumulative energy use; biotic resource use; and global warming| acidifying| and eutrophying emissions at each life cycle stage and in aggregate. We identify the importance of least environmental cost feed sourcing for reducing supply chain environmental impacts. We also highlight the need for more effective nutrient cycling in intensive aquaculture. The environmental trade-offs inherent in substituting technological inputs for ecosystem services in intensive pond-based versus lake-based production systems are discussed. We further call for more nuanced considerations of comparative environmental advantage in the production and interregional trade of food commodities than has been characteristic of historic food miles discussions. Significant opportunities exist for improving environmental performance in tilapia aquaculture. This product compares favorably| however| with several other fishery| aquaculture| and animal husbandry products| according to the suite of impact categories considered in this study. 10473,2010,3,4,Life cycle assessment of horse mackerel fisheries in Galicia (NW Spain) Comparative analysis of two major fishing methods,Atlantic horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) is one of the main target pelagic species of the coastal purse seining and bottom trawling Galician fleets The goal of this LCA study was to assess and compare the environmental impacts associated with the fishing operations related to Atlantic horse mackerel extraction in these two Galician coastal fisheries This analysis Included the operation of the vessels together with major inputs related to the production of diesel fishing nets or anti-fouling paints Data regarding vessel operation was obtained from the questionnaires filled out by a total of 54 skippers Results showed that environmental burdens regarding horse mackerel landing are associated mainly with activities related to diesel production transport and consumption of the fishing vessels Furthermore cooling agent leakage from the cooling chambers was identified as a major impact regarding ozone layer depletion and global warming potentials Horse mackerel captured by purse seiners presented reduced environmental burdens for all impact categories respect to horse mackerel landings by bottom trawlers The environmental reduction ranged from 49 to 89% depending on the Impact category analyzed Discard rates for coastal trawlers were also identified as a major environmental impact in this fishery Revision of fishing quotas and fishing strategies for the horse mackerel fishery and reduction of energy consumption through the introduction of new alternative fuels or technological actions are necessary in order to reduce the environmental impacts of a highly fuel-dependent activity (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved 10430,2010,3,4,Life cycle assessment of Jatropha biodiesel as transportation fuel in rural India,Since 2003 India has been actively promoting the cultivation of Jatropha on unproductive and degraded lands (wastelands) for the production of biodiesel suitable as transportation fuel. In this paper the life cycle energy balance| global warming potential| acidification potential| eutrophication potential and land use impact on ecosystem quality is evaluated for a small scale| low-input Jatropha biodiesel system established on wasteland in rural India. In addition to the life cycle assessment of the case at hand| the environmental performance of the same system expanded with a biogas installation digesting seed cake was quantified. The environmental impacts were compared to the life cycle impacts of a fossil fuel reference system delivering the same amount of products and functions as the Jatropha biodiesel system under research. The results show that the production and use of Jatropha biodiesel triggers an 82% decrease in non-renewable energy requirement (Net Energy Ratio| NER = 1.85) and a 55% reduction in global warming potential (GWP) compared to the reference fossil-fuel based system. However| there is an increase in acidification (49%) and eutrophication (430%) from the Jatropha system relative to the reference case. Although adding biogas production to the system boosts the energy efficiency of the system (NER = 3.40)| the GWP reduction would not increase (51%) due to additional CH(4) emissions. For the land use impact| Jatropha improved the structural ecosystem quality when planted on wasteland| but reduced the functional ecosystem quality. Fertilizer application (mainly N) is an important contributor to most negative impact categories. Optimizing fertilization| agronomic practices and genetics are the major system improvement options. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10681,2010,3,4,Life cycle assessment of raw materials for non-wood pulp mills: Hemp and flax,At the present time| there is a remarkable increasing interest for using non-woody fibres as raw materials for pulp mills. The present study aims to identify and quantify the environmental impacts associated with the production of hemp and flax fibres for speciality paper pulp by using the Life Cycle Assessment (from now| LCA) methodology. One ton of fibre entering the pulp mill was used as functional unit in both systems. Inventory data for the foreground system (agricultural inputs and outputs) were obtained directly from growers (Spanish plantations and expert advisors) and combined| when necessary| with bibliographic sources. Data for the background system such as production of chemicals and pesticides| machinery or electricity were taken from the Ecoinvent database. The CML baseline 2000 methodology was selected to quantify the potential environmental impact associated to the crops. Specifically global warming (GWP)| acidification (AP)| eutrophication (EP) and photochemical oxidant formation (POP) were evaluated. In addition| two flow indicators were considered: energy (EU) and pesticide use (PU). Production of hemp fibre reported higher values for all the impact categories analyzed. On the contrary| flow indicators were more intensive in the flax scenario due to irrigation and pesticide consumption. LCA tool aided to identify the hot spots| so that a proposal for upgrading alternatives to reduce environmental impacts could be made. Production and use of fertilizers as well as the stage of scutching were identified as the hot spots in both crops; in addition| harvesting has also significant contribution in hemp production and irrigation regarding the flax scenario. Future work will be focused on the study of non-wood fibre processing in order to get a complete picture of the non-wood pulp life cycle. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10550,2010,3,3,Life cycle assessment of sub-units composing a MSW management system,This paper summarises the results of a number of life cycle evaluations that we have carried out in recent years about some of the sub-units (in particular| the recycling of the packaging materials| the treatment of the bio-waste| and the energy recovery from the residual waste) that compose a municipal solid waste management system (MSWMS) and about the MSWMS as a whole. The range of values estimated for cumulative energy demand (CED)| global warming (GWP(100))| human toxicity| acidification| and photochemical ozone creation indicators according to the different analyses are presented in the paper for each sub-unit. The assumptions influencing the results have been identified| too. The proper aggregation of sub-units has allowed the estimation of the impacts associated with two integrated MSWMSs implemented in Italy and of the order of magnitude of those associated with a generic MSWMS| similar to those of the two case studies. The results show that the assumptions that most influence the environmental indicators are those about selection efficiencies and quality deterioration in the recycling of the packaging materials| about process emissions and avoided products in the composting| about the biogas yield and its way of utilisation in the anaerobic digestion| and about the efficiency of the plant and the kind of avoided energy in the energy recovery. All the indicators| except GWP(100) under certain assumptions| are negative in sign| thus indicating a benefit for the environment thanks to the avoided impact associated with the production of material and energy during the waste management. The estimated order of magnitude of the CED and GWP100 indicators turns out to be respectively thousands of MJ eq. and tens of kg CO(2) eq. per tonne of managed waste. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10976,2010,3,3,Life cycle assessment of switchgrass-derived ethanol as transport fuel,Background| aim| and scope The increasing gasoline price| the depletion of fossil resources| and the negative environmental consequences of driving with petroleum fuels have driven the development of alternative transport fuels. Bioethanol| which is converted from cellulosic feedstocks| has attracted increasing attention as one such alternative. This study assesses the environmental impact of using ethanol from switchgrass as transport fuel and compares the results with the ones of gasoline to analyze the potential of developing switchgrass ethanol as an environmentally sustainable transport fuel. Methods The standard framework of life cycle assessment from International Standards Organization was followed. To compare the environmental impact of driving with E10 and E85 with gasoline| "power to wheels for 1-km driving of a midsize car" was defined as the functional unit. The product system consists of all relevant processes| from agriculture of switchgrass| throughout the production of ethanol| blending ethanol with gasoline to produce E85 and E10| to the final vehicle operations. The transport of all products and chemicals is also included in the system boundaries. An allocation based on energy content was applied as a baseline| and market price-based allocation was applied for a sensitivity analysis. Results and discussion With regard to global warming potential| driving with switchgrass ethanol fuels leads to less greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than gasoline: 65% reduction may be achieved in the case of E85. Except for global warming and resource depletion| driving with ethanol fuels from switchgrass does not offer environmental benefits in the other impact categories compared to gasoline. Switchgrass agriculture is the main contributor to eutrophication| acidification| and toxicity. Emissions from bioethanol production cause a greater impact in photochemical smog formation for ethanol-fueled driving. Conclusions and recommendations Switchgrass ethanol indeed leads to less GHG emissions than gasoline on a life cycle basis; however| the problem has been shifted to other impacts. Improvement of switchgrass yields and development of ethanol production technologies may be the key to lower environmental impact in the future. For a more comprehensive evaluation of using bioethanol as transport fuel| more impact categories need to be included in the life cycle impact assessment. A comparison with bioethanol from other feedstocks| based on similar methodological choices and background data| would provide more insight in the environmental benefits of switchgrass as a feedstock. 10728,2010,3,4,Life cycle assessment of the average Spanish diet including human excretion,The aim of this work is to find out to what extent human excretion is relevant in the context of a Spaniard's overall food intake. A case study dealing with the average Spanish diet is carried out| including the whole life cycle of food: agricultural and animal production| industrial processing| distribution and retail| home storage and cooking| solid waste management and human excretion. An extensive literature review was carried out to obtain life cycle assessment (LCA) data for Spanish food products. Also| the Danish LCA Food database and other European literature sources were used| along with ecoinvent background data. Human excretion and wastewater treatment were accounted for with a specific model recently developed| which required calculating the average nutritional composition of the Spanish diet. Concerning life cycle impact assessment| only three impact categories| namely global warming potential (GWP)| acidification potential (AP) and eutrophication potential (EP)| were assessed| along with primary energy use (PEU) as environmental indicator. Food production clearly appears as the main hotspot in the Spanish diet. Human excretion| along with further wastewater treatment| is not a negligible process in EP and GWP| where it is the second most important source of emissions| with 17% of the overall emissions. However| if biogenic CO(2) emissions are not taken into account| the contribution of human excretion to GWP becomes very small (3%). The contributions to AP (2%) and PEU (3%) are also very small. The main limitation of this study is the lack of representative data to cover food production in Spain. Nevertheless| our total estimates for GWP and PEU per person per year are in accordance with previous studies| as well as the identification of animal food as a main source of environmental impacts. These studies achieve similar results without including human excretion| but concerning EP| there are no previous studies focusing on this impact category at the diet level. Food production is the most important life cycle stage in the Spanish diet| especially meat and dairy products. Nevertheless| human excretion as a life cycle stage has been found to be important in EP due to the emissions of nutrients in treated sewage. These results show that excretion should not be overlooked in LCA studies dealing with diet shifts and studies aimed at identifying the life cycle hotspots of food products. 10556,2010,3,3,Life cycle assessment of the manufacture of lactide and PLA biopolymers from sugarcane in Thailand,l-lactide is the monomer for the polymer poly-l-lactic acid (PLLA). PLLA can be made from renewable resources| and is used in an increasing amount of applications. The biopolymer PLLA is one type of polymer of the family of polylactic acids (PLAs). Purac produces l-lactide and d-lactide| and supports partners with know-how to produce their own PLA from lactide. This life cycle assessment (LCA) study supporting market development presents the eco-profile of lactides and PLA biopolymers. An LCA was carried out for l-lactide| d-lactide| PLLA| and two PLLA/PDLA blends made from cane sugar in Thailand| and were compared with that of fossil-based polymers. The LCA complies with ISO standards| and is a cradle-to-gate analysis including sugarcane cultivation| sugarcane milling| auxiliary chemicals production| transport| and production of lactide and PLAs. In the analysis| process data were taken from the designs of full-scale plants for the production of lactic acid| lactides| and PLA. The data were combined with ecoprofiles of chemicals and utilities and recalculated to the following environmental impacts: primary renewable and non-renewable energy| non-renewable abiotic resource usage| farm land use| global warming| acidification| photochemical ozone creation| human toxicity| and eutrophication. On a weight-by-weight basis| PLLA results in significantly lower emissions of greenhouse gasses| and less use of material resources and non-renewable energy| compared to fossil-based polymers. With the present calculations| the Global Warming Potential (GWP) in l-lactide production is 300-600 kg CO(2) eq./tonne and for PLLA 500-800 kg CO(2) eq./tonne. The range indicates the sensitivity of the GWP to the energy credit for electricity production from bagasse in the sugar mill. The GWP of PLLA/PDLA blends with increased heat resistance is also lower compared to fossil based polymers with similar durable character. Being based on an agricultural system the biobased PLA gives rise to higher contributions to acidification| photochemical ozone creation| eutrophication| and farm land use compared to the fossil polymers. The application spectrum of PLAs is expanding| and there are opportunities to replace various fossil-based polymers. This facilitates climate change mitigation and reduces dependence on fossil and scarce resources while promoting the use of local and renewable resources. It is evident that in emerging green economies agricultural technology will form an integral part in the changeover towards a more sustainable industry and society. 10864,2010,3,3,Life cycle assessment of the transmission network in Great Britain,Analysis of lower carbon power systems has tended to focus on the operational carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions from power stations. However| to achieve the large cuts required it is necessary to understand the whole-life contribution of all sectors of the electricity industry. Here| a preliminary assessment of the life cycle carbon emissions of the transmission network in Great Britain is presented. Using a 40-year period and assuming a static generation mix it shows that the carbon equivalent emissions (or global warming potential) of the transmission network are around 11 gCO(2-eq)/kWh of electricity transmitted and that almost 19 times more energy is transmitted by the network than is used in its construction and operation. Operational emissions account for 96% of this with transmission losses alone totalling 85% and sulphur hexafluoride (SF(6)) emissions featuring significantly. However| the CO(2) embodied within the raw materials of the network infrastructure itself represents a modest 3%. Transmission investment decisions informed by whole-life cycle carbon assessments of network design could balance higher financial and carbon 'capital' costs of larger conductors with lower transmission losses and CO(2) emissions over the network lifetime. This will| however| necessitate new regulatory approaches to properly incentivise transmission companies. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10729,2010,3,4,Life cycle assessments of consumer electronics - are they consistent?,During the last decades| the electronics industry has undergone tremendous changes due to intense research leading to advanced technology development. Multiple life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have been performed on the environmental implications of consumer electronics. The aim of this review is to assess the consistency between different LCA studies for desktop computers| laptop computers| mobile phones and televisions (TVs). A literature study was conducted covering some key LCA contributions to the consumer electronics field. The focus is primarily on global warming potential during 100 years (GWP100) efficiency in different life cycle phases and secondarily on primary energy usage/electricity usages which are normalised per year to find inconsistencies. The life cycle impact assessment GWP100 results for consumer electronics over the years suggest that most studies are of comparable quality; however| some studies are neither coherent nor transparent. Published LCAs for mobile phone and TV sets are consistent| whereas for laptop and desktop computers| the studies occasionally give conflicting messages. The inconsistencies appear to be rooted in subjective choices and different system boundaries and lifetime| rather than lack of standardisation. If included| the amounts of emissions of sulphur hexafluoride (SF(6)) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF(3)) are crucial to the GWP100 in the various life cycle phases for a desktop using liquid crystal display (LCD) screen. Another important observation is that the MEEuP methodology report/tool underestimates the GWP100 of electronic component manufacturing processes. Between 1997 and 2010| the ISO 14040/44 standards have ensured a rather consistent set of GWP100 results for the studied products. However| the lack of transparency for consumer electronics LCAs sometimes makes benchmarking difficult. It is nevertheless possible to compare new LCA calculations to existing studies. It is also possible to reveal which product studies are consistent with studies of submaterials and subcomponents. In most cases| the GWP100 results for consumer electronics are consistent. Based on the survey of published work| recycling and other end-of-life processes have a tiny share of the total GWP100 score for consumer electronics. LCA researchers should as a rule| if possible| make a historical survey of their technical system to establish trends| proportions and relations. Policy makers ought to ask for these surveys when using LCAs for decision support. This charter is necessary as to understand the reasonableness of the results. Additions to the ISO14040/44 LCA standardisation for mass-volume products would be worthwhile as a means of increasing the consistency. 10802,2010,3,3,Life cycle carbon footprint of the National Geographic magazine,Climate change is an urgent and serious global problem. Life cycle assessment methods may be used to evaluate the life cycle carbon footprint of a product| such as the National Geographic magazine. The results of the study provide the publisher and material suppliers with information to reduce life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The study also informs consumers of the GHG emissions associated with the product. The purpose of this study was to document the life cycle carbon footprint of the National Geographic magazine. Currently| there is no international standard for conducting a product life cycle carbon footprint. Both the International Standards Organization (ISO) and the World Resources Institute's Greenhouse Gas Protocol are working to develop standards. The study followed the ISO standards for life cycle assessment (ISO 14040:2006 and ISO 14044:2006). The Greenhouse Gas Protocol| A Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard also provided guidance. The study showed that the life cycle of the National Geographic magazine produces about 0.82 kg of carbon dioxide equivalents per life cycle of the average magazine. The amount of GHG emissions per life cycle of each magazine produced is about the same amount of GHG emissions produced by driving an automobile (8.5 km/liter gasoline) for about 3 km. High quality| geographically and temporally representative data for the study were provided by National Geographic| Verso Paper| and Quad Graphics. These data are specific to the magazine life cycle and account for about 88% of the total energy results and about 75% of the total GHG emissions for the entire life cycle of the magazine. The study includes extraction of raw materials from the earth| processing of raw materials| fuels| intermediate products| transportation steps| manufacture of paper| printing| distribution of the magazine| and final disposition. The results indicate that opportunities for improving the carbon footprint of the magazine are more likely to be found within the manufacturing and printing of the paper. These two steps account for the majority of the greenhouse gas emissions. Including recycled fiber into magazine paper did not improve the carbon footprint of the magazine. Incorporation of groundwood did impact end-of-life emissions from disposal into landfills. 11029,2010,3,3,Life cycle design of a single-phase induction motor,This study focuses on the optimisation of a single-phase permanent capacitor induction machine with respect to two environmental criteria: gross energy requirement and global warming potential. The study presented has been applied to roller shutter drives; these motors display a low ratio value of cumulative operating time to total lifetime. Since the studied motors are placed in roller shutter tubes| whose diameter has been fixed because of production and distribution constraints| only two free parameters are available as part of our optimisation routine: the active length and number of turns per phase. The short operating times of these motors necessitate a transient thermal modelling approach. Based on the typical operating cycle of a roller shutter| the authors have emphasised the impact of production and transport stages on our optimisation results. Minimising operating losses or maximising operating efficiency are not valid criteria for this particular application. So a new efficiency is introduced: the life-cycle efficiency. Gross energy requirement and global warming potential are the main optimisation criteria whereas active length and turn number are the main sizing parameters available in this study. Sensitivity analyses have also been conducted on: the operating cycle| cage and winding materials| and the energy mix. 11071,2010,3,4,Life cycle emissions and energy study of biodiesel derived from waste cooking oil and diesel in Singapore,Biodiesel derived from Waste Cooking Oil (WCO) is considered highly environmentally sustainable since WCO is a waste product from domestic and commercial cooking processes and then recycled to a transportation fuel in Singapore. In addition| it avoids the conversion of land use for crop production. This is a strong advantage for Singapore which has relatively smaller land space than other countries. The import of virgin oil as feedstock into Singapore is also avoided. Therefore| the more appropriate feedstock to produce biodiesel in Singapore context is WCO. According to the National Environment Agency| diesel vehicles in Singapore contribute 50% of the total particulate matter smaller than 2.5 mu m (PM(0.25)) emissions to air ambient. Hence| the aim of this life cycle assessment study was to compare the environmental performances of biodiesel derived from WCO and low sulphur diesel in terms of global warming potential| life cycle energy efficiency (LCEE) and fossil energy ratio (FER) using the life cycle inventory. The results of this study would serve as a reference for energy policy makers and environmental agencies. ISO14040 and ISO14044 (ISO14040 2006; ISO 14044 2006) are used as the method for implementing this study. This comparative study between biodiesel derived from WCO and low sulphur diesel is done by comparing the life cycle inventory results. The tailpipe emission tests were done using a gas analyser. Biodiesel production data are collected from a local facility. The production of main ingredients| types of transportation| conversion of WCO to biodiesel and the usage of biodiesel were considered within the dataset. Production of low sulphur diesel was modelled according to several references. The phases include foreign crude oil production| refining| transporting of diesel to station and finally the usage of diesel. The testing vehicle for both transportation fuels is an ISUZU pickup truck with engine capacity of 3|059 cc and in direct injection combustion chamber type. The functional unit in this study is output of 1 transportation-km. In this section| two types of emissions are discussed. First is the net life cycle emission. The second is the exhaust tailpipe emissions. Highest amount of reduction on a life cycle basis is PM(2.5) and PM(10) with a significant reduction of 99.99%. On the exhaust tailpipe emission basis| the reduction for total particulate matter is 94.80%. The LCEE of biodiesel produced from WCO is calculated as 86.93%. This is higher than biodiesel reported from US studies (using soybean as feedstock) which is 80.55%. The low LCEE value of 71.09% for low sulphur diesel could be attributed by the fact that Singapore depends greatly on foreign crude oil production and imports. The FER is calculated to be 9.39. The life cycle of biodiesel produced from the recycling of WCO produces more than nine times as much energy in its final fuel product as it uses in fossil energy. This is three times higher than biodiesel derived from soya oil in the USA. The emission results and the life cycle energy efficiencies have indicated that the replacement of low sulphur diesel with biodiesel derived from WCO as a transportation fuel is favourable. In Singapore| the potential substitution percentage of diesel by biodiesel if all of the WCO can be collected and processed to biodiesel is 1.42%. There is a need for recyclers to convince the food establishments and users of cooking oil of the benefits of recycling cooking oil| which in turn obtains a steady source of WCO as feedstock for biodiesel production. In addition| as the biodiesel life cycle defined is very much dependent on WCO as a feedstock| it is recommended to optimise the WCO collection network. 11353,2010,3,4,Life Cycle Energy and GHG Analysis of Hydroelectric Power Development in India,This study presents the results of a life cycle assessment of energy usage and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electricity generation by small hydroelectric projects for understanding the characteristics of these systems from the perspective of global warming. Two types of hydropower schemes| viz. canal-based and dam-toe schemes| have been analyzed. The energy pay-back time for canal-based scheme is found in the range of 1.18-1.31 years. The corresponding values for dam-toe are 0.44-1.12 years. Similarly| GHG emissions (gCO2eq/kWhe) from canal-based and dam-toe schemes are in the range of 32.23-35.35 and 11.91-31.2 respectively. Using the economic input-output based life cycle assessment approach| energy pay-back timeand GHG emission have been quantified. 11212,2010,3,4,Life cycle environmental and economic analyses of a hydrogen station with wind energy,This study aimed to identify the environmental and economic aspects of the wind-hydrogen system using life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC) methodologies. The target H(2) pathways are the H(2) pathway of water electrolysis (WE) with wind power (WE[Wind]) and the H(2) pathway of WE by Korean electricity mix (WE[KEM]). Conventional fuels (gasoline and diesel) are also included as target fuel pathways to identify the fuel pathways with economic and environmental advantages over conventional fuels. The key environmental issues in the transportation sector are analyzed in terms of fossil fuel consumption (FFC)| regulated air pollutants (RAPs)| abiotic resource depletion (ARD)| and global warming (GW). The life cycle costs of the target fuel pathways consist of the well-to-tank (WTT) costs and the tank-to-wheel (TTW) costs. Moreover| two scenarios are analyzed to predict potential economic and environmental improvements offered by wind energy-powered hydrogen stations. In LCA results| WE[Wind] is superior to the other pathways in all environmental categories. The LCC results show that the projected WTT cost savings of WE[Wind] and WE[KEM] compared to gasoline are US $ 0.050 and US $ 0.036 per MJ| respectively| because hydrogen will not be subjected to any fuel tax according to the Korean Energy Policy in 2015. Although WE[KEM] and WE [Wind] incur high capital costs owing to the required capital investment in fuel cell vehicles (FCVs)| they have lower well-to-wheel (WTW) costs than those of conventional fuels due to the high FCV efficiency in fuel utilization stage. WTW costs for gasoline are higher than those of WE[KEM] and WE[Wind] by US $ 12|600 and US $ 10|200| respectively. This study demonstrated the future competitiveness of the WE[Wind] pathway in both environmental and economic aspects. In the WTT stage| the point-of-sale of the electricity produced by the wind power plant (WPP) cannot be controlled because the wind-powered electricity production fluctuates considerably depending on the wind. However| the use of a wind-powered H(2) station in the future enables stable wind power plant management and provides greater economic profit than the present system since the wind-powered electricity can be used for the hydrogen production in the H(2) station and any residual electricity is sold to Korea electric power corporation (KEPCO). If 5% of conventional vehicles in Korea are substituted with FCVs using H(2) via WE[Wind] in 2015| CO(2) emission will be reduced by 2|876|000 tons/year and annual LCC costs by US $ 8559 million. Thus| the operation of wind-powered hydrogen stations will encourage the introduction of hydrogen into the transportation fuel market. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Professor T. Nejat Veziroglu. 11371,2010,3,3,Life Cycle Impact Assessment of Wood Pellets Made in Hokkaido,In order to quantitatively analyze the environmental impact of wood pellets produced in Hokkaido. we carried out a life cycle impact assessment using LIME2 The external cost of the pellets was estimated at 1461 yen/t| and the impact of CO(2) emissions on global warming accounted for 45% of the cost The production process of the pellets has the highest CO(2) emissions in the life cycle| and thus improvement of productivity in the process is important for reduction of the impact In a comparison of life cycle impact among 5 heating systems| the external cost of the pellet stove heating system was smallest| since the combustion of wood is regarded as carbon-neutral CO(2) emissions could be reduced to the range of 753 to 5642 kg/household/year if the pellet stove heating system was introduced to general households in Hokkaido For example. introducing that system as an alternative for the kerosene stove heating system would reduce CO(2) emissions by 43% per household a year 11541,2010,3,3,Life Cycle Inventory Analysis of the Production of a High-performance Foam Blowing Agent HFC-245fa (1|1|1|3|3-pentafluoropropane),A life cycle inventory analysis is described for the production of HFC-245fa (1|1|1|3|3-pentafluoropropane) from basic raw materials to the pure product ready for shipment to customers. The analysis was based on typical industrial operations| assumed to be located in southern USA. It showed the mineral requirements to be mainly salt| fluorspar| sulphur| and limestone| together with natural gas and oil used as feedstock. Energy required in processing totaled 4.4 tons of CO(2) equivalent per ton of product| including the energy required to transport raw materials and intermediates between facilities and also a 2% contribution from the release of greenhouse gases other than CO(2). Other environmental releases were waste salt brine (to the sea)| mineral tailings (landfilled at the fluorspar mine) and anhydrous calcium sulphate (to inert landfill). The quantities of sulphur dioxide and volatile organic compounds released into the atmosphere were calculated to be 5 and 1 Kg per ton| respectively. Spent catalysts are not inert and were assumed to be sent to specialist contractors for reclamation or disposal; the transport and energy requirements for this were also included. The process energy requirement amounts to < 5% of the global warming potential of HFC-245fa indicating that the principal way of reducing the climate impact of HFC-245fa is to minimize emissions of the material itself during use and during disposal of equipment containing it. 11202,2010,3,3,Life cycle modelling of fossil fuel power generation with post-combustion CO(2) capture,Due to its compatibility with the current energy infrastructures and the potential to reduce CO(2) emissions significantly| CO(2) capture and geological storage is recognised as one of the main options in the portfolio of greenhouse gas mitigation technologies being developed worldwide. The CO(2) capture technologies offer a number of alternatives| which involve different energy consumption rates and subsequent environmental impacts While the main objective of this technology is to minimise the atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions| it is also important to ensure that CO(2) capture and storage does not aggravate other environmental concerns This requires a holistic and system-wide environmental assessment rather than focusing on the greenhouse gases only Life Cycle Assessment meets this criteria as it not only tracks energy and non-energy-related greenhouse gas releases but also tracks various other environmental releases| Such as solid wastes| toxic substances and common air Pollutants| as well as the Consumption of other resources| Such as water. minerals and land use This paper presents the principles of the CO(2) capture and storage LCA model developed at Imperial College and uses the pulverised coal post-combustion capture example to demonstrate the methodology in detail At first| the LCA models developed for the coal combustion system and the chemical absorption CO(2) capture system are presented together with examples of relevant model applications Next| the two models are applied to a plant with post-combustion CO(2) capture. in order to compare the life cycle environmental performance of systems with and without CO(2) capture The LCA results for the alternative post-combustion CO(2) capture methods (including MEA| K(+)/PZ| and KS-1) have shown that| compared to plants without Capture| the alternative CO(2) capture methods can achieve approximately 80% reduction in global warming potential without a significant increase in other life cycle impact categories The results have also shown that| of all the solvent options modelled| KS-1 performed the best in most impact categories (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved. 10962,2010,3,3,Life-cycle assessment (EASEWASTE) of two municipal solid waste incineration technologies in China,The environmental profile of two municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) technologies with semi-dry flue gas cleaning| namely grated firing incinerators (GFI) and fluidised bed incinerators (FBI) that are commonly used in China were evaluated and compared by life-cycle assessment (LCA) using the EASEWASTE model. All emissions of key pollutants as well as energy| resource and material inputs and outputs associated with the two MSWI technologies were determined and the corresponding environmental impact potentials were modelled. Incineration of MSW with a lower heating value (LHV) around 4.5 MJ kg(-1) demands that auxiliary fuel is used| and both GFI and FBI caused environmental loads by contributing with environmental impact potentials in most categories except for some saving in global warming (GW100) and hazardous waste (HW). Coal combustion in FBI is a main contributor to the environmental impact potentials and thus should always be limited to a minimum. Auxiliary fuels can be avoided when the LHV of MSW is higher than 5-6 MJ kg(-1). For all scenarios| GFI saves more global warming potentials than FBI due to its higher net power generation from combustion of MSW itself. Leachate from the bunker could be sprayed into the furnace for evaporation under high temperature| as an alternative to waste-water treatment| without major changes in the environmental profile of the incinerator. The presented evaluations may contribute to a more balanced environmental assessment of the two incineration technologies with respect to incineration of MSW with low heating values as often found in Asia and China. 10725,2010,3,4,Life-Cycle Assessment Modeling of Construction Processes for Buildings,This research examined the environmental impacts due to the construction phase of commercial buildings. Previous building research has often overlooked the construction phase and focused on the material and use phases| discounting the significant environmental impacts of construction. The research was conducted using life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology| which is a systematic environmental management tool that holistically analyzes and assesses the environmental impacts of a product or process. Life-cycle inventory results focused on particulate matter| global warming potential| SO(x)| NO(x)| CO| Pb| nonmethane volatile organic compounds| energy usage| and solid and liquid wastes. Results over the entire building life cycle indicate that construction| while not as significant as the use phase| is as important as other life-cycle stages. This research used augmented process-based hybrid LCA to model the construction phase; this modeling approach effectively combined process and input-output (IO) LCA. One contribution was the development of a hybrid LCA model for construction| which can be extended to other sectors| such as building products. Including IO results| especially construction service sectors| is critical in construction LCA modeling. Results of a case study demonstrated that services had the highest level of methane emissions and were a significant contributor to CO(2) emissions. 11382,2010,3,4,Life-cycle assessment of computational logic produced from 1995 through 2010,Determination of the life-cycle environmental and human health impacts of semiconductor logic is essential to a better understanding of the role information technology can play in achieving energy efficiency or global warming potential reduction goals. This study provides a life-cycle assessment for digital logic chips over seven technology generations| spanning from 1995 through 2010. Environmental indicators include global warming potential| acidification| eutrophication| ground-level ozone (smog) formation| potential human cancer and non-cancer health effects| ecotoxicity and water use. While impacts per device area related to fabrication infrastructure and use-phase electricity have increased steadily| those due to transportation and fabrication direct emissions have fallen as a result of changes in process technology| device and wafer sizes and yields over the generations. Electricity| particularly in the use phase| and direct emissions from fabrication are the most important contributors to life-cycle impacts. Despite the large quantities of water used in fabrication| across the life cycle| the largest fraction of water is consumed in generation of electricity for use-phase power. Reducing power consumption in the use phase is the most effective way to limit impacts| particularly for the more recent generations of logic. 10795,2010,2,2,Life-cycle assessment of flash pyrolysis of wood waste,This work analyzes a process known as flash pyrolysis| which produces bio fuels using biomass for power generation. A life-cycle assessment of flash pyrolysis of wood waste was conducted to study whether a flash pyrolysis plant set up locally would be environmentally friendly. The results obtained show that the process of flash pyrolysis of wood waste is in fact environmentally friendly| and the process has little contribution to the environment. However| efforts still have to be made to address the global warming potential issue. Continuous research and developments must be carried out to further reduce the global warming potential of the flash pyrolysis. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11044,2010,3,4,Life-cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management alternatives with consideration of uncertainty: SIWMS development and application,This paper describes the development and application of the Stochastic Integrated Waste Management Simulator (SIWMS) model. SIWMS provides a detailed view of the environmental impacts and associated costs of municipal solid waste (MSW) management alternatives under conditions of uncertainty. The model follows a life-cycle inventory approach extended with compensatory systems to provide more equitable bases for comparing different alternatives. Economic performance is measured by the net present value. The model is verified against four publicly available models under deterministic conditions and then used to study the impact of uncertainty on Sydney's MSW management 'best practices'. Uncertainty has a significant effect on all impact categories. The greatest effect is observed in the global warming category where a reversal of impact direction is predicted. The reliability of the system is most sensitive to uncertainties in the waste processing and disposal. The results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty at all stages to better understand the behaviour of the MSW system. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10879,2010,3,4,Life-Cycle Assessment of Potential Algal Biodiesel Production in the United Kingdom: A Comparison of Raceways and Air-Lift Tubular Bioreactors,Life-cycle assessment has been used to investigate the global warming potential (GWP) and fossil-energy requirement of a hypothetical operation in which biodiesel is produced from the freshwater alga Chlorella vulgaris| grown using flue gas from a gas-fired power station as the carbon source. Cultivation using a two-stage method was considered| whereby the cells were initially grown to a high concentration of biomass under nitrogen-sufficient conditions| before the supply of nitrogen was discontinued| whereupon the cells accumulated triacylglycerides. Cultivation in typical raceways and air-lift tubular bioreactors was investigated| as well as different methods of downstream processing. Results from this analysis showed that| if the future target for the productivity of lipids from microalgae| such as C. vulgaris| of similar to 40 tons ha(-1) year(-1) could be achieved| cultivation in typical raceways would be significantly more environmentally sustainable than in closed air-lift tubular bioreactors. While biodiesel produced from microalgae cultivated in raceway ponds would have a GWP similar to 80% lower than fossil-derived diesel (on the basis of the net energy content)| if air-lift tubular bioreactors were used| the GWP of the biodiesel would be significantly greater than the energetically equivalent amount of fossil-derived diesel. The GWP and fossil-energy requirement in this operation were found to be particularly sensitive to (i) the yield of oil achieved during cultivation| (ii) the velocity of circulation of the algae in the cultivation facility| (iii) whether the culture media could be recycled or not| and (iv) the concentration of carbon dioxide in the flue gas. These results highlight the crucial importance of using life-cycle assessment to guide the future development of biodiesel from microalgae. 11535,2010,3,4,Life-Cycle Assessment of Reconstruction Options for Interstate Highway Pavement in Seattle| Washington,Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a tool that can be used to identify the environmental impact of a product or process This paper compares three replacement options for an aging portland cement concrete (PCC) pavement with the use of an LCA process based protocol The options are to remove and replace the aging pavement with PCC pavement remove the aging pavement and replace It with hot mix asphalt (HMA) pavement and crack and seat the existing pavement and then place an HMA overlay Each option investigated Includes a detailed construction and rehabilitation schedule and is analyzed over 50 years The results show that materials production (e g cement asphalt PCC and HMA) dominates the energy use emissions and impacts for all three options In general HMA production tends to cause the HMA option to have the highest energy use whereas cement production tends to cause the PCC option to have the highest global warming potential (GWP) The crack seat and overlay option was the lowest energy user had the lowest GWP and produced the least emissions in more categories measured than the other two options This may become a strong argument for expansion of the crack seat and overlay method of rehabilitation 10655,2010,3,4,Life-cycle assessment of selected management options for air pollution control residues from waste incineration,Based on available technology and emission data seven selected management options for air-pollution-control (APC) residues from waste incineration were evaluated by life-cycle assessment (LCA) using the EASEWASTE model. Scenarios were evaluated with respect to both non-toxicity impact categories (e.g. global warming) and toxicity related impact categories (e.g. ecotoxicity and human toxicity). The assessment addressed treatment and final placement of 1 tonne of APC residue in seven scenarios: 1) direct landfilling without treatment (baseline)| 2) backfilling in salt mines| 3) neutralization of waste acid| 4) filler material in asphalt| 5) Ferrox stabilization| 6) vitrification| and 7) melting with automobile shredder residues (ASR). The management scenarios were selected as examples of the wide range of different technologies available worldwide while at the same time using realistic technology data. Results from the LCA were discussed with respect to importance of: energy consumption/substitution| material substitution| leaching| air emissions| time horizon aspects for the assessment| and transportation distances. The LCA modeling showed that thermal processes were associated with the highest loads in the non-toxicity categories (energy consumption)| while differences between the remaining alternatives were small and generally considered insignificant. In the toxicity categories| all treatment/utilization options were significantly better than direct landfilling without treatment (lower leaching)| although the thermal processes had somewhat higher impacts than the others options (air emissions). Transportation distances did not affect the overall ranking of the management alternatives. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10872,2010,3,4,Life-cycle-assessment of the historical development of air pollution control and energy recovery in waste incineration,Incineration of municipal solid waste is a debated waste management technology. In some countries it is the main waste management option whereas in other countries it has been disregarded. The main discussion point on waste incineration is the release of air emissions from the combustion of the waste| but also the energy recovery efficiency has a large importance. The historical development of air pollution control in waste incineration was studied through life-cycle-assessment modelling of eight different air pollution control technologies. The results showed a drastic reduction in the release of air emissions and consequently a significant reduction in the potential environmental impacts of waste incineration. Improvements of a factor 0.85-174 were obtained in the different impact potentials as technology developed from no emission control at all| to the best available emission control technologies of today (2010). The importance of efficient energy recovery was studied through seven different combinations of heat and electricity recovery| which were modelled to substitute energy produced from either coal or natural gas. The best air pollution control technology was used at the incinerator. It was found that when substituting coal based energy production total net savings were obtained in both the standard and toxic impact categories. However| if the substituted energy production was based on natural gas| only the most efficient recovery options yielded net savings with respect to the standard impacts. With regards to the toxic impact categories| emissions from the waste incineration process were always larger than those from the avoided energy production based on natural gas. The results shows that the potential environmental impacts from air emissions have decreased drastically during the last 35 years and that these impacts can be partly or fully offset by recovering energy which otherwise should have been produced from fossil fuels like coal or natural gas. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 713,2010,2,4,Life-history and ecological correlates of population change in Dutch breeding birds,Predicting relative extinction risks of animals has become a major challenge in conservation biology. Identifying life-history and ecological traits related to the decline of species helps understand what causes population decreases and sets priorities for conservation action. Here| we use Dutch breeding bird data to correlate species characteristics with national population changes. We modelled population changes between 1990 and 2005 of all 170 breeding bird species using 25 life-history| ecological and behavioural traits as explanatory variables. We used multiple regression and multi-model inference to account for intercorrelated variables| to assess the relative importance of traits that best explain interspecific differences in population trend| and to identify the environmental changes most likely responsible. We found that more breeding birds have increased than decreased in number. The most parsimonious models suggest that ground-nesting and late arrival at the breeding grounds in migratory birds are most strongly correlated with decline. Increasing populations are mainly found among herbivores| sedentary and short-distance migrants| herb- and shrub-nesting birds and large species with a small European range. Declines in ground-nesting and late arriving migrant birds suggest that agricultural intensification| eutrophication and climate change are most likely responsible for changes in Dutch breeding bird diversity. We illustrate that management strategies should primarily focus on the traits and causes responsible for the population changes| in order to be effective and sustainable. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10643,2010,2,4,Light rain events change over North America| Europe| and Asia for 1973-2009,Analysis of daily precipitation data reveals diverse long-term trends of light rain events in North America (NA)| Europe (EU)| and Asia (AS)| but overall a decreasing trend is found from 1973-2009| especially over East Asia| where a remarkable shift from light to heavy rain events has been observed. Although it has been argued that global warming may lead to a shift from light to heavy rain| regionally little correspondence is found between light rain trends and temperature/precipitable water (PW) trends. This argues for the need to include other factors such as atmospheric circulation and aerosol changes that affect regional rain rates and cloud processes. Copyright (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society 727,2010,2,4,LIKELY EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE BLACK SEA BENTHIC ECOSYSTEM,Occurrence and distribution of species in the Black sea are primarily determined by seawater temperature and salinity. The most recent predictions suggest that| by 2100| average air temperatures may be between 2 and 4 degrees C higher than at present and seawater temperatures may be as much as 2 degrees C higher than in 2000. The rise of the coastal zone seawater temperature may be higher than the open sea water average. It is expected that a warming of air and seawater temperatures will result in increased diversity of benthic marine life in the Black sea with adverse effects limited mainly to declines in abundance or loss of a small number of native species. Changes to a minority of biotopes might occur in the long-term. Depending on the temperature increase Mediterranisation of the Black sea fauna is in progress and occurs owing to immigration of new species. The aim of this article is discussing the global warming and the range of likely effects on marine benthic species. These effects may be related to changing water temperatures| changing water circulation or changing habitat. At present| to predict or detect the effects of climate change on marine benthic communities are quite difficult. But we can only provide educated guesses about potential changes and the consequences of those changes for the Black sea. 10842,2010,2,2,Limnological and ecological sensitivity of Rwenzori mountain lakes to climate warming,An increasing number of studies forecast that anthropogenic climate change poses serious consequences for the biodiversity and ecosystem functioning of high-elevation mountain lakes| through a series of both direct and indirect effects. The impacts of future climate warming on alpine ecosystems are of particular concern| given that warming is expected to be most pronounced at high elevations around the globe. Here| we evaluate the limnological and ecological sensitivity of high-elevation lakes in the Rwenzori Mountains (Uganda-D. R. Congo) to climate change. This is done by comparing the species assemblages of larval chironomid remains deposited recently in lake sediments with those deposited at the base of short cores (dated to within or shortly after the Little Ice Age) in 16 lakes. Chironomid-based reconstructions of mean annual air temperature (MATemp) are made using a variety of inference models (with transfer functions based on weighted averaging| weighted-averaging partial least squares| and a weighted modern analogue technique)| and two different calibration data sets| one covering the full regional temperature gradient and one comprising only high-elevation Rwenzori lakes and ponds. The reconstructed historical temperature change ranges between a cooling of -2.03A degrees C and a warming of +3.22A degrees C (with n = 16 lakes x 3 models x 2 calibration data sets). However| excluding the atypical mid-elevation lake Mahoma (2|990 m altitude)| we find a three-to-one ratio of cases of inferred warming against inferred cooling| and of the 24 Delta MATemp values exceeding 0.60A degrees C| 23 are positive and only one is negative. Chironomid-inferred temperature changes mostly fall within the error range of the regional temperature inference models. A generalized linear mixed model analysis of the combined result from all lakes (except Mahoma) nevertheless indicates significantly warmer MATemp (on average +0.38 +/- A 0.11A degrees C) at present compared to between similar to 85 and similar to 645 years ago. Inferred temperature changes are independent of whether lakes are located in glaciated or non-glaciated catchments| and of the age of the core base| suggesting that at least part of the signal is due to relatively recent| anthropogenic warming. The direction of faunal change at the lakes in relation to established species-environment relationships suggests that part of the observed shifts in species composition reflect lake-specific evolution in habitat features other than temperature| such as nutrients| pH or oxygen regime| which in our present calibration data set co-vary with temperature to a greater or lesser extent. The fairly uniform and marked historical warming trend in Rwenzori lakes documented by this study highlights their ecological vulnerability and their value as early warning systems for detecting the limnological and ecological effects of global warming. 10751,2010,2,4,Linkages among climate change| crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration,Climate change is expected to cause mass human migration| including immigration across international borders. This study quantitatively examines the linkages among variations in climate| agricultural yields| and people's migration responses by using an instrumental variables approach. Our method allows us to identify the relationship between crop yields and migration without explicitly controlling for all other confounding factors. Using state-level data from Mexico| we find a significant effect of climate-driven changes in crop yields on the rate of emigration to the United States. The estimated semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields is approximately -0.2| i.e.| a 10% reduction in crop yields would lead an additional 2% of the population to emigrate. We then use the estimated semielasticity to explore the potential magnitude of future emigration. Depending on the warming scenarios used and adaptation levels assumed| with other factors held constant| by approximately the year 2080| climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15-65 y) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone. Although the results cannot be mechanically extrapolated to other areas and time periods| our findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions| especially developing countries| are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming. 380,2010,4,2,Linking energy and climate (before 1974),Establishing a link between the consumption of fossil fuels and global climate change has depended both on scientific research as well as assumptions about the pace of social change| technological innovation| and economic growth. Late 19th century research into the role of carbon dioxide and climate focused on explaining the historical cooling of the ice ages; consideration of future warming as a result of energy use remained theoretical and focused on benefits centuries away. After declining scientific interest in the carbon dioxide theory in the early 20th century| it was revived again in the late 1930s| gradually stimulating further research that led to a more sophisticated understanding of the global carbon cycle and prospects for future warming. This research began incorporating more realistic expectations of future energy growth. In the early 1970s| scientists| politicians| and the general public began paying more attention to research into anthropogenic climate change| in part due to a renewed attention to the social costs of energy systems alongside a growing focus on global environmental issues. Future historical research into energy and climate change should examine the role of predictions and expectations of social change in shaping the agenda of scientific research. (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. WIREs Clim Change 2010 1 773-780 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.78 538,2010,2,4,Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease,The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial| and the effect of climatic variability| in particular| has largely been ignored. For instance| it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines| putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd)| was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Nino climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability| which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested| only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread ( by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses| whereas El Nino accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence| we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability| extreme climatic events| and the strength of Central Pacific El Nino episodes| climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians| presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature. 583,2010,3,2,Lithological and Petrophysical Core-Log Interpretation in CO(2)SINK| the European CO(2) Onshore Research Storage and Verification Project,The storage of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) in saline aquifers is one of the most promising options for Europe to reduce emissions of green-house gases from power plants to the atmosphere and to mitigate global climate change. The CO(2)SINK (CO(2) Storage by Injection into a saline aquifer at Ketzin) project is a research and development (R&D) project| mainly supported by the European Commission| the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research| and the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology| targeted at developing an in-situ laboratory for CO(2) storage. The preparatory phase of the project involved a baseline geological-site exploration and the drilling of one injection and two observation wells| as well as the acquisition of a geophysical baseline and geochemical monitoring| in Ketzin| located near Berlin. The target saline aquifer is the lithologically heterogeneous Triassic Stuttgart formation| situated at approximately 630- to 710-m (2|070- to 2|330-ft) depth. A comprehensive borehole-logging program was performed consisting of routine well logging complemented with an enhanced logging program for one well that recorded nuclear-magnetic-resonance (NMR) and borehole-resistivity images| to characterize the storage formation better. A core analysis program carried out on reservoir rock and caprock included measurements of helium porosity| nitrogen permeability| and brine permeability at different pressure conditions. The saline aquifer at Ketzin shows a variable porosity/permeability distribution| which is related to grain size| facies variation| and rock cementation with values in the range from 5 to > 35% and 0.02 to > 5|000 md for porosity and permeability| respectively. On the basis of core analysis and logging data| an elemental log-analysis model for the target formation was established for all three wells. In addition| permeability was estimated using the Coates equation and compared with core data and NMR log-derived permeability| which seems to provide meaningful permeability estimates for the Ketzin reservoir. On the basis of the good core control that guided the petrophysical well-log interpretation in the first two CO(2)SINK wells| a porosity and permeability prediction by analogy for the third well is appropriate and applicable. The availability of cores was crucial for a sophisticated formation evaluation at borehole scale that characterizes the real subsurface conditions. 11406,2010,2,4,Liver energy| atresia and oocyte stage influence fecundity regulation in Northeast Arctic cod,Marine ecosystems are changing; global warming-induced increases in water temperatures and fishing have caused truncated age structures and small sizes at maturity in many stocks. This may affect both populations total reproductive output and the link between population demography and recruitment| yet detailed information on fecundity regulation is generally lacking for marine fishes. We therefore examined associations between liver energy| oocyte stage| leading cohort oocyte size (LC(20))| atresia and fecundity for the Northeast Arctic cod (NEAC) Gadus morhua L. from 2006 to 2008 in a comprehensive field and laboratory study. The relationship between the relative liver size (hepatosomatic index| HSI) and specific liver energy content was best described by an asymptotic curve| increasing rapidly at first| then levelling of at HSI > 6%. LC(20) increased towards the spawning season| but was also positively associated with total length. At present there is thus a tendency towards larger NEAC females spawning earlier. The incidence of atresia was highest during the advanced yolk granule stage. Only 1% of females that reached an LC(20) > 300 mu m absorbed all oocytes and thereby aborted spawning. Potential fecundity showed a parabolic relationship with LC(20)| peaking around 614 mu m| i.e. approximately on February 1st| and was positively associated with weight| liver energy and| presently| age. In summary| NEAC females that start vitellogenesis will likely spawn. Atresia and fecundity down-regulation appears only to become pronounced close to spawning. Finally| the size-dependent spawning time| which appears to have emerged in the stock recently| may alter the link between population demography and recruitment. 11173,2010,2,4,Local effects of climate change over the Alpine region: A study with a high resolution regional climate model with a surrogate climate change scenario,We discuss a surrogate climate change (SCC) simulation over the Alpine region with a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) using a fine scale sub-grid land surface representation. Multi-year simulations are completed with an imposed illustrative 3K warming on the forcing large scale meteorological conditions and on the sea surface temperatures in the interior domain. The corresponding relative humidity is kept constant| which results in an increase of atmospheric moisture. We find that in the winter season precipitation increases consistently with the SCC approach| with a significant dependence on topographical elevation. Other components of the surface energy and water budgets also show a marked elevation dependency| mostly tied to changes in snow cover. In summer| contrary to what might be expected from the SCC forcing| precipitation decreases over the Alpine mountain chain. This is due to a local surface-atmosphere feedback mechanism involving reduced snow cover and soil moisture at the beginning of summer. Our results suggest that over the Alps during summer local feedbacks related to the surface energy and water budgets are important factors in determining the precipitation response to global warming. This result might extend to other mid-latitude mountainous areas. Citation: Im| E.-S.| E. Coppola| F. Giorgi| and X. Bi (2010)| Local effects of climate change over the Alpine region: A study with a high resolution regional climate model with a surrogate climate change scenario| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L05704| doi:10.1029/2009GL041801. 599,2010,2,4,Local impact of temperature and precipitation on West Nile virus infection in Culex species mosquitoes in northeast Illinois| USA,Background: Models of the effects of environmental factors on West Nile virus disease risk have yielded conflicting outcomes. The role of precipitation has been especially difficult to discern from existing studies| due in part to habitat and behavior characteristics of specific vector species and because of differences in the temporal and spatial scales of the published studies. We used spatial and statistical modeling techniques to analyze and forecast fine scale spatial (2000 m grid) and temporal (weekly) patterns of West Nile virus mosquito infection relative to changing weather conditions in the urban landscape of the greater Chicago| Illinois| region for the years from 2004 to 2008. Results: Increased air temperature was the strongest temporal predictor of increased infection in Culex pipiens and Culex restuans mosquitoes| with cumulative high temperature differences being a key factor distinguishing years with higher mosquito infection and higher human illness rates from those with lower rates. Drier conditions in the spring followed by wetter conditions just prior to an increase in infection were factors in some but not all years. Overall| 80% of the weekly variation in mosquito infection was explained by prior weather conditions. Spatially| lower precipitation was the most important variable predicting stronger mosquito infection; precipitation and temperature alone could explain the pattern of spatial variability better than could other environmental variables (79% explained in the best model). Variables related to impervious surfaces and elevation differences were of modest importance in the spatial model. Conclusion: Finely grained temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation and air temperature have a consistent and significant impact on the timing and location of increased mosquito infection in the northeastern Illinois study area. The use of local weather data at multiple monitoring locations and the integration of mosquito infection data from numerous sources across several years are important to the strength of the models presented. The other spatial environmental factors that tended to be important| including impervious surfaces and elevation measures| would mediate the effect of rainfall on soils and in urban catch basins. Changes in weather patterns with global climate change make it especially important to improve our ability to predict how inter-related local weather and environmental factors affect vectors and vector-borne disease risk. Local impact of temperature and precipitation on West Nile virus infection in Culex species mosquitoes in northeast Illinois| USA. 10399,2010,2,4,Local stratification control of marine productivity in the subtropical North Pacific,Strengthened stratification of the upper ocean due to global warming is generally expected to inhibit marine primary productivity in the subtropics| based on the supposition that increased water column stability will decrease vertical mixing and consequently the entrainment of deep nutrients into the euphotic zone. A recent analysis of observational data from the subtropical North Atlantic| however| demonstrates that productivity in this region is not correlated with stratification on interannual time scales over the modern observational record| but is instead impacted by other dynamics that affect vertical mixing and nutrient supply. Herein| we examine data from the Hawaiian Ocean Time series program's Station ALOHA (A Long-Term Oligotrophic Habitat Assessment) in the subtropical North Pacific. We find that stratification and productivity are not strongly correlated at this location over the observational record. In contrast to the North Atlantic| the weakness of correlation observed at ALOHA may reflect the strongly stratified ecosystem of the eastern subtropical North Pacific and a lack of sufficiently strong interannual forcing in this region. Although basin-wide climate processes (namely El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadel Oscillation) have previously been suggested to impact local stratification and vertical nutrient supply at ALOHA| we find no evidence of a strong or consistent linkage. Comparing local ecosystem variability to the recently identified North Pacific Gyre Oscillation| however| we observe a correlation with local subsurface productivity and salinity. The correlations have similar structure in both space (i.e.| depth) and time and are possibly linked to dynamics associated with the formation and advection of water masses in the central gyre. 688,2010,4,4,Local-scale validation of the Surface Observation Gridding System with in situ weather observations in a semi-arid environment,Although the Surface Observation Gridding System (SOGS) provides spatially continuous models of meteorological conditions| little work has been done to validate SOGS data independently for site-specific research and| as a result| a single nearby weather station is commonly selected instead. This study sought to determine local-scale accuracy of SOGS data (1) by correlation with independent| in situ weather station measurements and (2) relative to a nearby weather station. Correlations between SOGS data and in situ weather observations and between in situ weather observations and a nearby weather station were examined in a semi-arid environment of southeastern Idaho over the 2006 growing season. The results indicate that both SOGS and nearby weather station data were significantly correlated with in situ weather station measurements. Although temperature correlations between in situ and the nearby weather station were slightly greater compared to SOGS| SOGS data were a better predictor of precipitation. This suggests that the use of a nearby weather station is appropriate for local temperature parameters but precipitation parameters are better estimated using SOGS data. Overall| the validation of the SOGS weather models agreed closely with independent| in situ weather measurements and| as a result| greater confidence can be placed in the accuracy of the productivity| biomass and global climate change models derived from these data. 11343,2010,3,3,Long term effects of fertilization on carbon and nitrogen sequestration and aggregate associated carbon and nitrogen in the Indian sub-Himalayas,An understanding of the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) as affected by farming practices is imperative for maintaining soil productivity and also for restraining global warming by CO(2) evolution. Results of a long-term (30 year) experiment in the Indian Himalayas under rainfed soybean (Glycine max L.)-wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) rotation was analyzed to determine the influence of mineral fertilizer and farmyard manure (FYM) application at 10 Mg ha(-1) on SOC and total soil nitrogen (TSN) stocks and distribution within different aggregate size fractions. Fertilizers (NP| NK and NPK) and FYM in combination with N or NPK were applied before the soybean crop every year and no nutrient was applied before the wheat crop. Results showed that addition of FYM with N or NPK fertilizers increased SOC and TSN contents. The overall gain in SOC in the 0- to 45-cm soil depth interval in the plots under NPK + FYM treatment over NPK was 17.18 Mg C ha(-1) in 30 year. The rate of conversion of input C to SOC was about 19% of each additional Mg C input per hectare. SOC content in large size aggregates was greater than in smaller size aggregates| and declined with decreased aggregate size. Thus| long-term soybean-wheat rotation in a sandy loam soil of the Indian Himalayas sequestered carbon and nitrogen. Soil organic C and TSN sequestration in the 0.25- to 0.1-mm size fraction is an ideal indicator of long-term C and N sequestration| since this fraction retained maximum SOC/TSN stock. 644,2010,2,4,Long- and short-term influence of environment on recruitment in a species with highly delayed maturity,Short-term effects of environmental perturbations on various life history traits are reasonably well documented in birds and mammals. But| in the present context of global climate change| there is a need to consider potential long-term effects of natal conditions to better understand and predict the consequences of these changes on population dynamics. The environmental conditions affecting offspring during their early development may determine their lifetime reproductive performance| and therefore the number of recruits produced by a cohort. In this study| we attempted to link recruitment to natal and recent (previous year) conditions in the long-lived black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophrys) at Kerguelen Islands. The environmental variability was described using both climatic variables over breeding (sea surface temperature anomaly) and non-breeding grounds (Southern Oscillation index)| and variables related to the colony (breeding success and colony size). Immature survival was linked to the breeding success of the colony in the year of birth| which was expected to reflect the average seasonal parental investment. At the cohort level| this initial mortality event may act as a selective filter shaping the number| and presumably the quality (breeding frequency| breeding success probability)| of the individuals that recruit into the breeding population. The decision to start breeding was strongly structured by the age of the individuals and adjusted according to recent conditions. An effect of natal conditions was not detected on this parameter| supporting the selection hypothesis. Recruitment| as a whole| was thus influenced by a combination of long- and short-term environmental impacts. Our results highlight the complexity of the influence of environmental factors on such long-lived species| due to the time-lag (associated with a delayed maturity) between the impact of natal conditions on individuals and their repercussion on the breeding population. 10722,2010,2,4,Long-term changes in mollusc communities of the Ognon river (France) over a 30-year period,The mollusc fauna of the Ognon river| one of the main tributaries of the Sa ne| surveyed for the first time in 1977| was re-sampled in 2007 to assess long-term changes. Overall| the total number of collected individuals increased by 33.6 % (55.2 % for gastropods and 23.7 % for bivalves) but total species richness remained stable during the period (40 vs. 39 species) although there was considerable species turnover: 8 disappearances offset by 7 appearances including that of the invasive Corbicula fluminea which accounted for 30.4 % of the total number of individuals in 2007. The use of trend test| similarity index and principal component analyses (PCA) revealed radical changes in mollusc communities between years particularly in the upstream-downstream gradients of species richness| total number of molluscs| and gastropods| bivalves| pulmonates| sphaeriid and unionid mussel densities. The upstream colonisation of several species was observed in the upper part of the river but in the lower part divergences in terms of species richness| density and structure increased in a downstream direction. The chronology of the changes observed strongly suggest that competition for food following the proliferation of C. fluminea and the 2003 heatwave may be| responsible for the dramatic decline of native bivalves (Unionidae and Sphaeriidae| respectively). Given the magnitude of these changes| a return to a state prior to the disturbance of the malacological structure is hardly conceivable. However| the evolution towards a new relatively stable state is an alternative hypothesis. 11229,2010,2,4,Long-Term Changes in Rainfall over Eastern China and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Recent Global Warming,Using precipitation data from rain gauge stations over China| the authors examine the long-term variation of the durations of persistent rainfall over eastern China for the past 40 years. The variation in the regional rainfall was related to a change in the global-mean surface temperature from the relatively cold period of the 1960s-70s to the relatively warm period of the 1980s-90s. Compared to the cold period| the persistent rainfall in the warm period began earlier and ended later over southern China| lengthening the rainy season by 23 days| but it began later and ended earlier over northern China| shortening the rainy season by 14 days. This change in the durations of persistent rainfall contributed to the pattern of the long-term change in rainfall: southern floods and northern droughts. The earlier beginning of the rainy season over southern China was associated with a more westward subtropical high over the western North Pacific and a stronger low-level low near the eastern Tibetan Plateau during spring. On the other hand| the later ending of the rainy season over southern China and the shorter rainy season over northern China were related to a more westward subtropical high over the western Pacific and a weaker trough near the eastern Tibetan Plateau during summer. The snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau exhibited a positive trend in winter and spring| which increased the local soil moisture content and cooled the overlying atmosphere during spring and summer. The sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific also displayed a positive trend. The cooling over land and the warming over oceans reduced the thermal contrast between East Asia and the adjacent oceans. Moreover| the low-level low pressure system over East Asia weakened during summer. Under such circumstances| the East Asian summer monsoon circulation weakened| with anomalous northerly winds over eastern China. Correspondingly| the mei-yu front stagnated over the Yangtze River valley| and the associated pattern of vertical motions increased the rainfall over the valley and decreased the rainfall over northern China. 11532,2010,2,4,Long-term changes in the water quality and fish community of a large boreal lake affected by rising water temperatures and nutrient-rich sewage discharges - with special emphasis on the European perch,In this study| we report the changes in the water quality and fish community of a large boreal lake (Lake Pyhaselka| Finland) in 1975-2005| when the lake was affected first by industrial and municipal sewage discharge and then by rising water temperatures. In the 1980s| the lake's trophic state proceeded from oligotrophic to mesotrophic| which favoured cyprinids. The increased cyprinid density strengthened the competition pressure on perch (Perca fluviatilis) reducing the growth rates of young perch. The lake's trophic state shifted from mesotrophic back to oligotrophic in the 1990s as a result of effective treatment of sewage waters. The water temperature in Lake Pyhaselka rose from the beginning to the end of the monitoring period. The higher temperature favoured perch. In future| the warming may benefit pikeperch (Sander lucioperca) even more than perch. This will probably affect the perch population| as pikeperch prey effectively on perch. 11356,2010,2,4,Long-Term Changes of Seasonal Progress in Baiu Rainfall Using 109 Years (1901-2009) Daily Station Data,This study investigates long-term changes in Baiu rainfall in Eastern and Western Japan using daily precipitation records at 37 stations for the years 1901 through 2009| focusing on its seasonal progress. This period is much longer than various data analyzed in previous observational studies. In the early Baiu season (early to mid June)| significant long-term decreasing trends are observed in Eastern and Western Japan| accompanying large inter-decadal variation in the former half of the 20th century. In the late Baiu season (mid to late July)| in contrast| significant long-term increasing trends are observed on the Japan Sea side of Eastern and Western Japan. No significant trends are recognized either in the mid Baiu season (late June to early July) or in the entire Baiu season (June to July) over all regions. It is interesting to note that the observed tendency of delayed Baiu withdrawal in the last 109 years| when global warming has been in progress| is similar to its future changes projected by climate models. 10874,2010,3,2,Long-term effectiveness and consequences of carbon dioxide sequestration,One proposal for the mitigation of ongoing global warming is the sequestration of carbon dioxide extracted at combustion sites or directly from the air(1|2). Such sequestration could help avoid a large rise in atmospheric CO(2) concentration from unchecked use of fossil fuels| and hence extreme warming in the near future(3|4). However| it is not clear how effective different types of sequestration and associated leakage are in the long term| and what their consequences might be. Here I present projections over 100|000 years for five scenarios of carbon sequestration and leakage with an Earth system model(5). Most of the investigated scenarios result in a large| delayed warming in the atmosphere as well as oxygen depletion| acidification and elevated CO(2) concentrations in the ocean. Specifically| deep-ocean carbon storage leads to extreme acidification and CO(2) concentrations in the deep ocean| together with a return to the adverse conditions of a business-as-usual projection with no sequestration over several thousand years. Geological storage may be more effective in delaying the return to the conditions of a business-as-usual projection| especially for storage in offshore sediments. However| leakage of 1% or less per thousand years from an underground stored reservoir| or continuous resequestration far into the future| would be required to maintain conditions close to those of a low-emission projection with no sequestration. 10713,2010,3,4,Long-term impact of water desalination plants on the energy and carbon dioxide balance of Victoria| Australia: a case study from Wonthaggi,In 2007| the state government of Victoria| Australia| announced plans to build a large desalination plant with a capacity of 150 million m3 per year of desalinated water. Currently| the only feasible source for significant expansion of the greenhouse-gas neutral (GGN) energy generation in the state is wind power. A criterion for GGN of a desalination plant has been formulated. In a case of no greenhouse gas contribution from the desalination plant| the criterion is satisfied if the annual growth of the electrical energy generated by GGN sources is around 6-9% for the period 2010-2070. Higher annual growth of 18% for the period 2008-2015| 8% annually for the period 2015-2035 and 6% annual growth thereafter are required if the desalination plant is contributing to the greenhouse-gas balance of the state. 10594,2010,4,3,Long-term in situ monitoring at Dashgil mud volcano| Azerbaijan: a link between seismicity| pore-pressure transients and methane emission,Mud volcanism is a global phenomenon usually associated with compressional tectonics that favour extrusion of fluid-and clay mineral-rich sediment both on land and offshore. Methane| the dominant gas phase| is emitted at variable rates during and after emplacement of the mud domes. In case of continental mud volcanoes| the gas is directly released into the atmosphere| thereby contributing to global warming. Azerbaijan is one of the countries with one of the highest abundances of mud domes globally. One of the most prominent mud volcanoes| Dashgil| has been chosen for a case study because of its historic record of violent eruptions| continued activity| and well-documented regional geology in the Caucasus orogenic wedge adjacent to the Caspian Sea. Since 2003| gas flux has quantitatively measured at one of the two crater lakes and is characterized by valve-type behaviour and episodically violent degassing. In 2007| the large crater lake was additionally equipped with methane fluxmeters as well as an in situ pore-pressure probe into the conduit. Our data are complemented by regional seismicity| and exhibit the following results: (1) there seems to be a significant correlation between changes in pore pressure in the conduit feeding the main crater lake and the rate of gas escape; (2) changes in gas-flux rate appear to be independent of local seismicity| in particular since no larger EQs have been recorded since 2003; (3) despite discontinuous monitoring owing to technical failures| we observe an overall increase in methane emission with time; (4) nearby earthquake activity (The paper evaluates to which extent that different designs of Voluntary Agreements (VAs) can work as catalysts for Policy Learning (PL) and thus contribute to improved policy design and management processes. Through a literature study| it is found that VAs in the form of Negotiated Agreements (NAs) are more successful in promoting PL than other types of VAs that have less focus on the participatory aspect of the policy processes. The paper contributes to the existing VA policy literature through highlighting the predominately overseen learning values of implementing NA as well as providing policy recommendations on VA learning processes.
686,2010,2,4,Nest relocation and high mortality rate in a Neotropical social wasp: Impact of an exceptionally rainy La Nina year,After noting the forecast of a La Nina episode| associated with heavy rainfall in French Guiana| we monitored the fate of wasp nests before and during the 2006 short rainy season. The population of the most abundant epiponine wasp species| Polybia bistriata| decreased dramatically during the short rainy season (60.6% of the nests disappeared) then remained low for at least 18 months. Colonies that survived moved from the shelter of large| low leaves (a situation well adapted to the previous dry season) of the most frequent substrate tree| Clusia grandiflora (Clusiaceae)| to upper leaves| better ventilated and whose orientation provides good protection from the rain. Therefore| the possibility of moving the nest higher during the first rains following the dry season seems very adaptive as colonies that do not do so are eliminated during the La Nina years| whose frequency will increase with global climate change. (C) 2009 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved. 11300,2010,3,3,Net greenhouse gas fluxes in Brazilian ethanol production systems,Biofuels are both a promising solution to global warming mitigation and a potential contributor to the problem. Several life cycle assessments of bioethanol have been conducted to address these questions. We performed a synthesis of the available data on Brazilian ethanol production focusing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and carbon (C) sinks in the agricultural and industrial phases. Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from fossil fuels| methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) from sources commonly included in C footprints| such as fossil fuel usage| biomass burning| nitrogen fertilizer application| liming and litter decomposition were accounted for. In addition| black carbon (BC) emissions from burning biomass and soil C sequestration were included in the balance. Most of the annual emissions per hectare are in the agricultural phase| both in the burned system (2209 out of a total of 2398 kg C(eq))| and in the unburned system (559 out of 748 kg C(eq)). Although nitrogen fertilizer emissions are large| 111 kg C(eq) ha-1 yr-1| the largest single source of emissions is biomass burning in the manual harvest system| with a large amount of both GHG (196 kg C(eq) ha-1 yr-1). and BC (1536 kg C(eq) ha-1 yr-1). Besides avoiding emissions from biomass burning| harvesting sugarcane mechanically without burning tends to increase soil C stocks| providing a C sink of 1500 kg C ha-1 yr-1 in the 30 cm layer. The data show a C output: input ratio of 1.4 for ethanol produced under the conventionally burned and manual harvest compared with 6.5 for the mechanized harvest without burning| signifying the importance of conservation agricultural systems in bioethanol feedstock production. 11135,2010,3,4,Net mitigation potential of straw return to Chinese cropland: estimation with a full greenhouse gas budget model,Based on the carbon nitrogen cycles and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and emission processes related to straw return and burning| a compound greenhouse gas budget model| the "Straw Return and Burning Model" (SRBM)| was constructed to estimate the net mitigation potential of straw return to the soil in China. As a full GHG budget model| the SRBM addressed the following live processes: (1) soil carbon sequestration| (2) mitigation of synthetic N fertilizer substitution| (3) methane emission from rice paddies| (4) additional fossil fuel use for straw return| and (5) CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from straw burning in the fields. Two comparable scenarios were created to reflect different degrees of implementation for straw return and straw burning. With GHG emissions and mitigation effects of the five processes converted into global warming potential (GWP)| the net GHG mitigation was estimated. We concluded that (I) when the full greenhouse gas budget is considered| the net mitigation potential of straw return differs from that when soil carbon sequestration is considered alone; (2) implementation of straw return across a larger area of cropland in 10 provinces (i.e.| Shanghai| Jiangsu| Zhejiang| Fujian| Jiangxi| Hubei| Hunan| Guangdong| Guangxi| and Hainan) will increase net GHG emission; (3) if straw return is promoted as a feasible mitigation measure in the remaining provinces| the total net mitigation potential before soil organic carbon (SOC) saturation will be 71.89 Tg CO(2) equivalent (eqv)/yr| which is equivalent to 1.733% of the annual carbon emission from fossil fuel use in China in 2003; (4) after SOC saturation| only 13 of 21 provinces retain a relatively small but permanent net mitigation potential| while in the others the net GHG mitigation potential will gradually diminish; and (5) the major obstacle to the feasibility or permanence of straw return as a mitigation measure is the increased CH(4) emission from rice paddies. The paper also suggests that comparable scenarios in which all the related carbon nitrogen cycles are taken into account be created to estimate the mitigation potentials of organic wastes in different utilizations and treatments. 684,2010,4,4,NEW CHALLENGES IN AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE MODELING,At present| when high particulate matter (PM) concentrations in ambient air cause thousands of premature deaths in Europe and global climate change is becoming the most Critical issue in environmental protection| the state-of-the-science air quality and climate models Constitute an essential research as well as decision support tools. Recently the great progress has been achieved in this research area. The present paper presents the goals and tools for Air Quality (AQ) Modeling| and gives overview of current challenges| including the meteorological| chemistry and climate modeling. The main emphasis is given to the regulatory and the Eulerian grid models. the latter are currently operating as so called off-line or on-line modeling systems. The issues connected with model implementation and validation is presented as well. Finally| the conclusions are drawn and recommendations for further development and integration of AQ and climate modeling in Poland are presented. 10654,2010,3,2,New Directions for the Photocatalytic Reduction of CO(2): Supramolecular| scCO(2) or Biphasic Ionic Liquid-scCO(2) Systems,There is an urgent need for the discovery of carbon-neutral sources of energy to avoid the consequences of global warming caused by ever-increasing atmospheric CO(2) levels. An attractive possibility is to use CO(2) captured from industrial emissions as a feedstock for the production of useful fuels and precursors such as carbon monoxide and methanol. An active field of research to achieve this goal is the development of catalysts capable of harnessing solar energy for use in artificial photosynthetic processes for CO(2) reduction. Transition-metal complexes are excellent candidates| and it has already been shown that they can be used to reduce CO(2) with high quantum efficiency. However| they generally| suffer from poor visible light absorption| short catalyst lifetimes| and poor reaction. rates. In this Perspective| the field of photocatalytic CO(2) reduction is introduced| and recent developments that seek to improve the efficiency of such catalytic processes are highlighted| especially CO(2) reduction with supramolecules and molecular systems in supercritical CO(2) (scCO(2)) or biphasic ionic liquid scCO(2) mixtures. 10458,2010,5,4,New insights on Arctic Quaternary climate variability from palaeo-records and numerical modelling,Terrestrial and marine geological archives in the Arctic contain information on environmental change through Quaternary interglacial-glacial cycles. The Arctic Palaeoclimate and its Extremes (APEX) scientific network aims to better understand the magnitude and frequency of past Arctic climate variability| with focus on the "extreme" versus the "normal" conditions of the climate system. One important motivation for studying the amplitude of past natural environmental changes in the Arctic is to better understand the role of this region in a global perspective and provide base-line conditions against which to explore potential future changes in Arctic climate under scenarios of global warming. In this review we identify several areas that are distinct to the present programme and highlight some recent advances presented in this special issue concerning Arctic palaeo-records and natural variability| including spatial and temporal variability of the Greenland Ice Sheet| Arctic Ocean sediment stratigraphy| past ice shelves and marginal marine ice sheets| and the Cenozoic history of Arctic Ocean sea ice in general and Holocene oscillations in sea ice concentrations in particular. The combined sea ice data suggest that the seasonal Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean. This has important consequences for our understanding of the recent trend of declining sea ice| and calls for further research on causal links between Arctic climate and sea ice. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11265,2010,2,4,New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina,This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast| southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye| in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength| adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop| dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand| on its westward transit| large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions| but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean's dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 degrees C and vertical shear was usually strong| despite all satellite data available| the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based oil inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 420,2010,2,4,Niche Dimensions in Fishes: An Integrative View,Current shifts in ecosystem composition and function emphasize the need for an understanding of the links between environmental factors and organism fitness and tolerance. The examples discussed here illustrate how recent progress in the field of comparative physiology may provide a better mechanistic understanding of the ecological concepts of the fundamental and realized niches and thus provide insights into the impacts of anthropogenic disturbance. Here we argue that| as a link between physiological and ecological indicators of organismal performance| the mechanisms shaping aerobic scope and passive tolerance set the dimensions of an animal's niche| here defined as its capacity to survive| grow| behave| and interact with other species. We demonstrate how comparative studies of cod or killifish populations in a latitudinal cline have unraveled mitochondrial mechanisms involved in establishing a species' niche| performance| and energy budget. Riverine fish exemplify how the performance windows of various developmental stages follow the dynamic regimes of both seasonal temperatures and river hydrodynamics| as synergistic challenges. Finally| studies of species in extreme environments| such as the tilapia of Lake Magadi| illustrate how on evolutionary timescales functional and morphological shifts can occur| associated with new specializations. We conclude that research on the processes and time course of adaptations suitable to overcome current niche limits is urgently needed to assess the resilience of species and ecosystems to human impact| including the challenges of global climate change. 10735,2010,3,3,Nitrogen fertiliser production based on biogas - Energy input| environmental impact and land use,The aim of the present paper was to investigate the land use| environmental impact and fossil energy use when using biogas instead of natural gas in the production of nitrogen fertilisers The biogas was assumed to be produced from anaerobic digestion of ley grass and maize. The calculations showed that 1 ha of agricultural land in south-west Sweden can produce 1.7 metric ton of nitrogen in the form of ammonium nitrate per year from ley grass| or 3 6 ton from maize The impact on global warming| from cradle to gate| was calculated to be lower when producing nitrogen fertiliser from biomass compared with natural gas Eutrophication and acidification potential was higher in the biomass scenarios The greatest advantage of the biomass systems however lies in the potential to reduce agriculture's dependency on fossil fuels In the biomass scenarios| only 2-4 MJ of primary fossil energy was required| while 35 MJ/kg N was required when utilising natural gas (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved 11185,2010,3,3,Nitrous Oxide and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Following Green Manure and Compost Fertilization in Corn,Alternative N fertilizers that stimulate low greenhouse gas emissions from soil are needed to reduce the impact of agriculture on global warming. Corn (Zea mays L.) grown in a calcareous silt loam soil in northwestern Italy was fertilized with a municipal solid waste compost and vetch (Vicia villosa Roth.) green manure. Their potential to reduce N(2)O and CO(2) emissions was compared with that of urea (130 kg N ha(-1)). Gaseous fluxes were measured for 2 yr in the spring (after soil incorporation of fertilizers) and in summer. In spring| the slow mineralization of compost reduced N(2)O emissions (0.11% of supplied N) relative to urea (3.4% of applied N)| without an increase in CO(2) fluxes. Nitrous oxide (2.31% of fixed N) and CO(2) emissions from rapid vetch decomposition did not differ from urea. When N(2)O and CO(2) fluxes were combined| compost reduced by 49% the CO(2) equivalent emitted following urea application. Vetch did not show such an effect. In summer| no fertilizer effect was found on N(2)O and CO(2) emissions. Compost proved to be potentially suitable to reduce the CO(2) equivalent emitted after sod incorporation while vetch did not. For a thorough evaluation| net greenhouse gas emissions assessment should be extended to the entire N life cycle. Differences between calculated N(2)O emission factors and the default Tier 1 value of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1%) confirmed the need for site- and fertilizer-specific estimations. 10914,2010,3,3,Nitrous oxide and methane emission from a coarse-textured grassland soil receiving hog slurry,Methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) are potent greenhouse gases (GHG) that contribute to global warming. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the impact of (i) timing of hog slurry application and (ii) a soil moisture gradient on CH(4) and N(2)O emission from a coarse-textured| poorly drained| grassland soil. A factorial design with three treatments and two replicates was utilized. Treatments were: (i) zero manure (Control)| (ii) hog slurry applied as a split application in the fall and spring (Split)| each at a rate of 72 +/- 8 kg plant available N ha(-1)| and (iii) a single application of hog slurry applied each spring at a rate of 148 +/- 20 kg available N ha(-1) (Single). To achieve the second objective| two parallel transects each with 30 chambers placed 9 m apart along a soil moisture gradient were utilized. Overall| CH(4) and N(2)O emission from the manured treatments (Split and Single) were significantly higher (P < 0.001) compared to the Control. Over the 3 years| average CH(4) emission from the Control| Split and Single treatments were 2.1| 6.8 and 5.3 g C ha(-1) d(-1)| while N(2)O emission were 0.2| 2.2 and 4.9 g N ha(-1) d(-1)| respectively. Similarly| cumulative CH(4) and N(2)O emission and the combined CO(2) equivalents from the manured treatments were significantly higher (P <= 0.01) than from the Control. Over the 3 years| mean cumulative CH(4) emissions were 1.6| 3.5 and 2.7 kg C ha(-1); cumulative N(2)O emission were 0.06| 0.4 and 0.8 kg N ha(-1): while cumulative CO(2) equivalent was 74|279 and 459 kg CO(2) ha(-1) for Control| Split and Single treatments| respectively. Nitrous oxide contributed more to CO(2)-equivalent emission for the manure treatments with the ratio of N(2)O/CH(4) CO(2) equivalents being 0.7| 1.9 and 5 for the Control| Split and Single treatments| respectively. Soil water and NO(3)(-) content were the main determinants of both the type and quantity of GHG emitted| i.e.| saturated soils with low NO(3)(-) produced highest CH(4)| while drier soils with high NO(3)(-) produced greatest N(2)O. Variation in height of the water table near the soil surface likely resulted in the high variability observed in CH(4) emissions between replicates and years for individual treatments. These results suggest that: (i) split application of hog slurry to grassland has the potential to reduce emission of GHGs| in particular N(2)O| compared to applying all manure in spring| (ii) grassland soils with seasonally high water tables can be significant sources of CH(4)| and (iii) that CH(4) emission increases with hog slurry application in this soil. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11500,2010,2,4,No Differences in Soil Carbon Stocks Across the Tree Line in the Peruvian Andes,Reliable soil organic carbon (SOC) stock measurements of all major ecosystems are essential for predicting the influence of global warming on global soil carbon pools| but hardly any detailed soil survey data are available for tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) and adjacent high elevation grasslands above (puna). TMCF are among the most threatened of ecosystems under current predicted global warming scenarios. We conducted an intensive soil sampling campaign extending 40 km along the tree line in the Peruvian Andes between 2994 and 3860 m asl to quantify SOC stocks of TMCF| puna grassland| and shrubland sites in the transition zone between the two habitats. SOC stocks from the soil surface down to the bedrock averaged (+/- standard error SE) 11.8 (+/- 1.5| N = 24) kg C/m(2) in TMCF| 14.7 (+/- 1.4| N = 9) kg C/m(2) in the shrublands and 11.9 (+/- 0.8| N = 35) kg C/m(2) in the grasslands and were not significantly different (P > 0.05 for all comparisons). However| soil profile analysis revealed distinct differences| with TMCF profiles showing a uniform SOC distribution with depth| shrublands a linear decrease| and puna sites an exponential decrease in SOC densities with soil depth. Organic soil layer thickness reached a maximum (similar to 70 cm) at the upper limit of the TMCF and declined with increasing altitude toward puna sites. Within TMCF| no significant increase in SOC stocks with increasing altitude was observed| probably because of the large variations among SOC stocks at different sites| which in turn were correlated with spatial variation in soil depth. 10565,2010,4,4,Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming,There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species| climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here| we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky-eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air| the snail's body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation| and that the snail's upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22 degrees C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature| it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models. 11019,2010,2,4,Non-native fishes and climate change: predicting species responses to warming temperatures in a temperate region,1. Temperate regions with fish communities dominated by cold-water species (physiological optima <20 degrees C) are vulnerable to the effects of warming temperatures caused by climate change| including displacement by non-native cool-water (physiological optima 20-28 degrees C) and warm-water fishes (physiological optima >28 degrees C) that are able to establish and invade as the thermal constraints on the expression of their life history traits diminish. 2. England and Wales is a temperate region into which at least 38 freshwater fishes have been introduced| although 14 of these are no longer present. Of the remaining 24 species| some have persisted but failed to establish| some have established populations without becoming invasive and some have become invasive. The aim of the study was to predict the responses of these 24 non-native fishes to the warming temperatures of England and Wales predicted under climate change in 2050. 3. The predictive use of climate-matching models and an air and water temperature regression model suggested that there are six non-native fishes currently persistent but not established in England and Wales whose establishment and subsequent invasion would benefit substantially from the predicted warming temperatures. These included the common carp Cyprinus carpio and European catfish Silurus glanis| fishes that also exert a relatively high propagule pressure through stocking to support angling and whose spatial distribution is currently increasing significantly| including in open systems. 4. The potential ecological impacts of the combined effects of warming temperatures| current spatial distribution and propagule pressure on the establishment and invasion of C. carpio and S. glanis were assessed. The ecological consequences of C. carpio invasion were assessed as potentially severe in England and Wales| with impacts likely to relate to habitat destruction| macrophyte loss and increased water turbidity. However| evidence of ecological impacts of S. glanis elsewhere in their introduced range was less clear and so their potential impacts in England and Wales remain uncertain. 10388,2010,2,4,Nonconservative behavior of dissolved organic carbon across the Laptev and East Siberian seas,Climate change is expected to have a strong effect on the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) region| which includes 40% of the Arctic shelves and comprises the Laptev and East Siberian seas. The largest organic carbon pool| the dissolved organic carbon (DOC)| may change significantly due to changes in both riverine inputs and transformation rates; however| the present DOC inventories and transformation patterns are poorly understood. Using samples from the International Siberian Shelf Study 2008| this study examines for the first time DOC removal in Arctic shelf waters with residence times that range from months to years. Removals of up to 10%-20% were found in the Lena River estuary| consistent with earlier studies in this area| where surface waters were shown to have a residence time of approximately 2 months. In contrast| the DOC concentrations showed a strong nonconservative pattern in areas with freshwater residence times of several years. The average losses of DOC were estimated to be 30%-50% during mixing along the shelf| corresponding to a first-order removal rate constant of 0.3 yr(-1). These data provide the first observational evidence for losses of DOC in the Arctic shelf seas| and the calculated DOC deficit reflects DOC losses that are higher than recent model estimates for the region. Overall| a large proportion of riverine DOC is removed from the surface waters across the Arctic shelves. Such significant losses must be included in models of the carbon cycle for the Arctic Ocean| especially since the breakdown of terrestrial DOC to CO(2) in Arctic shelf seas may constitute a positive feedback mechanism for Arctic climate warming. These data also provide a baseline for considering the effects of future changes in carbon fluxes| as the vast northern carbon-rich permafrost areas draining into the Arctic are affected by global warming. 11111,2010,2,4,Nonlinear responses of wolverine populations to declining winter snowpack,Understanding the population-level impacts of climate change is critical for effectively managing ecosystems. Predators are important components of many systems because they provide top-down control of community structure. Ecological theory suggests that these species could be particularly susceptible to climate change because they generally occur at low densities and have resource-limited populations. Yet| our understanding of climate-change impacts on predators is hindered by the difficulty in assessing complex| nonlinear dynamics over the large spatial scales necessary to depict a species' general response to abiotic forcing. Here we use fur-return data to characterize population dynamics of a snow-adapted carnivore| the wolverine| across most of its North American range. Using novel modeling techniques| we simultaneously measured the impact of winter snowpack on wolverine dynamics across critical thresholds in snowpack depth and two domains of population growth. Winter snowpack declined from 1970 to 2004 in nearly the entire region studied| concordant with increases in Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies. Fur returns have declined in many areas; our models show that snowpack has strong| nonlinear effects on wolverine population dynamics. Importantly| wolverine harvests dropped the fastest in areas where snowpack declined most rapidly and also where snowpack had the greatest effect on population dynamics. Moreover| declining snow cover appears to drive trends in wolverine population synchrony| with important implications for overall persistence. These results illustrate the vulnerability and complex responses of predator populations to climate change. We also suggest that declining snowpack may be an important and hitherto little-analyzed mechanism through which climate change alters high-latitude ecosystems. 11184,2010,3,3,Nonsolar energy use and one-hundred-year global warming potential of Iowa swine feedstuffs and feeding strategies,Demand for nonsolar energy and concern about the implications of fossil fuel combustion have encouraged examination of energy use associated with agriculture. The United States is a global leader in pig production| and the United States swine industry is centered in Iowa. Feed is the largest individual input in pig production| but the energy consumption of the Iowa swine feed production chain has yet to be critically examined. This analysis examines nonsolar energy use and resulting 100-yr global warming potential (GWP) associated with the swine feed production chain| beginning with cultivation of crops and concluding with diet formulation. The nonsolar energy use and accompanying 100-yr GWP associated with production of 13 common swine feed ingredients are estimated. Two diet formulation strategies are considered for 4 crop sequence x ingredient choice combinations to generate 8 crop sequence x diet formulation scenarios. The first formulation strategy (simple) does not include synthetic AA or phytase. The second strategy (complex) reduces CP content of the diet by using L-lysine to meet standardized ileal digestibility lysine requirements of pigs and includes the exogenous enzyme phytase. Regardless of crop sequence x diet formulation scenario| including the enzyme phytase is energetically favorable and reduces the potential excretion of P by reducing or removing inorganic P from the complete diet. Including L-lysine reduces the CP content of the diet and requires less nonsolar energy to deliver adequate standardized ileal digestible lysine than simply feeding soybean meal. Replacing soybean meal with full-fat soybeans is not energetically beneficial under Iowa conditions. Swine diets including dried distillers grains with solubles and crude glycerol require approximately 50% more nonsolar energy inputs than corn-soybean meal diets or corn-soybean meal diets including oats. This study provides essential information on cultivation| processing| and manufacture of swine feed ingredients in Iowa that can be coupled with other models to estimate the nonsolar energy use and 100-yr GWP of pig production. 11155,2010,2,4,Northern Rocky Mountain streamflow records: Global warming trends| human impacts or natural variability?,The similar to 60 year Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a major factor controlling streamflow in the northern Rocky Mountains| causing dryness during its positive phase| and wetness during its negative phase. If the PDO's influence is not incorporated into a trend analysis of streamflows| it can produce detected declines that are actually artifacts of this low-frequency variability. Further difficulties arise from the short length and discontinuity of most gauge records| human impacts| and residual autocorrelation. We analyze southern Alberta and environs instrumental streamflow data| using void-filled datasets from unregulated and regulated gauges and naturalized records| and Generalized Least Squares regression to explicitly model the impacts of the PDO and other climate oscillations. We conclude that streamflows are declining at most gauges due to hydroclimatic changes (probably from global warming) and severe human impacts| which are of the same order of magnitude as the hydroclimate changes| if not greater. Citation: St. Jacques| J.-M.| D. J. Sauchyn| and Y. Zhao (2010)| Northern Rocky Mountain streamflow records: Global warming trends| human impacts or natural variability?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L06407| doi:10.1029/2009GL042045. 400,2010,2,4,Northward-shift of temperature zones in China's eco-geographical study under future climate scenario,Despite the well-documented effects of global climate change on terrestrial species' ranges| eco-geographical regions as the regional scale of ecosystems have been poorly studied especially in China with diverse climate and ecosystems. Here we analyse the shift of temperature zones in eco-geographical study over China using projected future climate scenario. Projected climate data with high resolution during 1961-2080 were simulated using regional climate model of PRECIS. The number of days with mean daily temperature above 10 degrees C and the mean temperature of January are usually regarded as the principal criteria to indicate temperature zones| which are sensitive to climate change. Shifts due to future climate change were calculated by comparing the latitude of grid cells for the future borderline of one temperature zone with that for baseline period (1961-1990). Results indicated that the ranges of Tropical| Subtropical| Warm Temperate and Plateau Temperate Zones would be enlarged and the ranges of Cold Temperate| Temperate and Plateau Sub-cold Zones would be reduced. Cold Temperate Zone would probably disappear at late this century. North borderlines of temperature zones would shift northward under projected future climate change| especially in East China. Farthest shifts of the north boundaries of Plateau Temperate| Subtropical and Warm Temperate Zones would be 3.1 degrees| 5.3 degrees and 6.6 degrees latitude respectively. Moreover| northward shift would be more notably in northern China as future temperature increased. 11430,2010,4,3,Numerical Analysis of Worldwide CO(2) Emissions and Effects on Atmospheric Warming in Turkey,Fossil fuels (coal| natural gas| oil)| which are the raw materials for energy| play an effective and determining role in energy planning| the development of countries| and then sustainability of them. When the global and regional geographies are evaluated from the geo-strategic and geo-political point of view| it is clearly seen that among all fossil fuels| coal is distributed more "equally" in ratio than oil and natural gas reserves and that it is gradually gaining importance for the countries that do not have energy resources or that have limited ones or have resources on the verge of exhaustion. When the latest innovations in environmentally-friendly technologies in the field of burning-storing CO(2) emission in thermal power plants besides the principle of "sustainable development" are also added to this situation| it is an undeniable fact that the coal will continue to be a significant primary energy resource in the future| though to a limited extent| both in Turkey and around the world. In this study| in order to be able to detect numerically the impact of CO(2) resulting from the fossil fuel consumption on global warming and the process of climate change; a numerical evaluation on a global scale has been given by associating the "total primary energy supply"-"CO(2) emission" of the total 136 countries in 2005 together with such basic indicators as "total primary energy supply/capita"-"ton CO(2)/capita." The potential CO(2) emission for the year 2030 has been estimated. Moreover| with the aim of keeping the integrity of the subject studied| the distribution of the thermal power plants working with fossil fuels among geographical regions in Turkey and the relationship between the existence of forests in these regions and average annual increase in temperature (Delta T) between the periods of 1975-1992 and 1993-2006 have also been examined according to the data from a total of 133 macro-climatic meteorological stations within the scope of this study. 11414,2010,3,3,Numerical simulation on multi-scale diffusion of CO(2) injected in the deep ocean in a practical scenario,The direct injection of CO(2) into the deep ocean is one of the ways for the mitigation of the global warming. There is| however| a concern about its environmental impact near the injection point. To minimize its biological impact| it is necessary to make CO(2) disperse as fast as possible and it is thought that injection with pipes towed by moving-ships is effective for this purpose. Because the injection ships are planned to move in the site| the order of magnitude of which is 10(2) km| a mesoscale model is required to predict CO(2) fate in seawater. At the same time| it is required to predict the concentration precisely near the injection points| which move with the ships in the mesoscale domain. In this study| a multi-scale ocean model was developed to analyze the dispersion of CO(2) in the deep ocean: the model consists of a fixed mesoscale domain and 5 small-scale domains nesting in the mesoscale domain. Each small-scale domain involves 6 pipes and moves along with the trajectories of the injection ships. From the results of the present numerical simulation| the developed technique demonstrated its applicability as a tool to optimise the system to dilute CO(2) below some criterion of biological impact. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. AM rights reserved. 11062,2010,2,4,Nutritional limitations on growth and development in poultry,Geneticists have been highly successful in improving potential growth of broilers over the past 50 years| and it is likely that more genetic progress is possible. However| in order to maximise this potential it will be necessary for nutritionists to review the way in which these fast-growing strains are fed. Unless changes are made to the composition of broiler feeds in the future| constraints are likely to occur immediately after hatching| when gut capacity will not allow the consumption of sufficient of a conventional starter feed to enable the chick to grow at its potential| and towards the end of the growing period| when heat production is so high that it may be impossible for a broiler to lose sufficient heat to the environment to enable it to grow at its potential. Issues discussed are those concerning the constraining effect of the egg on embryonic development| early feeding of the embryo and chick| problems associated with meeting the amino acid requirements immediately post-hatch| and various nutritional interventions that have been suggested as methods of reducing the heat load on broilers. It is suggested that with some manipulation of feed nutrient contents nutritionists will be able to keep up with the genetic changes taking place into the near future| but that the constraining effect on growth of global warming is a challenge that will need to be addressed by biologists and engineers in poultry research. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11110,2010,4,2,Observational evidence of the impact of vegetation cover on surface air temperature change in China,Using NOAA/AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data| the impact of vegetation cover on surface air temperature change is investigated by subtracting the reanalysis from the observation (observation minus reanalysis| OMR). The results show that the temperature OMR trend is inversely correlated to the surface vegetation index and the strong (weak) surface warming corresponds to the surface barrenness (greenness). Areas with NDVI less than 0.1 show a large warming trend of more than 0.2 degrees C/10a| but areas with NDVI larger than 0. 5 show little surface warming and even decreasing trends of temperature. Moreover| the OMR trend sensitively responds to the seasonal vegetation cover change. Atmosphere-land feedbacks over areas with different vegetation covers can alter the response of regional surface air temperature to global warming induced by the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases concentrations. Thus| it is suggested that projection of future surface climate of China should incorporate the impacts of spatio-temporal variability in vegetation cover. 620,2010,4,4,Observations of HO(x) Radical in Field Studies and the Analysis of Its Chemical Mechanism,Researches on HO(x) radical chemistry would provide theoretical support for understanding the global climate change and regional air pollution control. At present stage| comprehensive field campaign including HO(x) radial measurements is one of the critical approaches to advance it. However| due to the very short lifetime and extremely low concentration of HO(x) in the atmosphere| direct measurement of HO(x) radical is one of most challenged works in atmospheric chemistry. This paper reviews the direct measurement techniques of the HO(x) radical| summarizes the observed dynamics range of its concentrations| introduces the current schematic diagram of the HO(x) radical chemistry and the important contributions from previous field studies| and discusses the main scientific questions that need further researches. Besides| the progress of the HO(x) radical chemistry in China is reviewed| and several potentially important research directions are pointed out. 567,2010,2,4,Observations of increased wind-driven coastal upwelling off central California,Alongshore wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST) from coastal National Data Buoy Center buoys are used to study the variability of wind-driven coastal upwelling from 1982 to 2008. A long-term increase in upwelling is observed in central California (35 degrees N-39 degrees N) with stronger upwelling-favorable winds| colder water| and more frequent occurrences of upwelling days during the upwelling season (March-July). Further| a longer upwelling season is observed in the same region| starting earlier in the spring and persisting later in the fall. These interannual changes in upwelling strength and seasonal duration are investigated in this study. Changes in alongshore wind (forcing of upwelling) are poorly correlated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation| but the Northern Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation correlate with the geostrophic upwelling-favorable winds in the region. However| changes in SST (an upwelling response) are correlated with both changes in wind (upwelling forcing) and the climate indices. Although this short record cannot differentiate between multidecadal cycles and persistent trends| this data-based result does corroborate model-based projections of increased upwelling in this region due to global climate change. This increase in upwelling is understood to be a response to the strengthening of large-scale pressure gradient fields partially due to global-scale climate change. Farther north and farther south in California| other processes also have a significant influence on coastal conditions| such that the tendency for increased upwelling is not evident in the same way. 11106,2010,2,4,Ocean oxygen minima expansions and their biological impacts,Climate models with biogeochemical components predict declines in oceanic dissolved oxygen with global warming. In coastal regimes oxygen deficits represent acute ecosystem perturbations Here| we estimate dissolved oxygen differences across the global tropical and subtropical oceans within the oxygen minimum zone (200-700-dbar depth) between 1960-1974 (an early period with reliable data) and 1990-2008 (a recent period capturing ocean response to planetary warming) In most regions of the tropical Pacific. Atlantic| and Indian Oceans the oxygen content in the 200-700-dbar layer has declined. Furthermore| at 200 dbar| the area with O(2) < 70 mu mol kg(-1) where some large mobile macro-organisms are unable to abide| has increased by 4.5 million km(2) The tropical low oxygen zones have expanded horizontally and vertically Subsurface oxygen has decreased adjacent to most continental shelves However| oxygen has increased in sonic regions in the subtropical gyres at the depths analyzed According to literature discussed below| fishing pressure is strong in the open ocean| which may make it difficult to isolate the impact of declining oxygen on fisheries At shallower depths we predict habitat compression will occur for hypoxia-intolerant taxa| with eventual loss of biodiversity. Should past trends in observed oxygen differences continue into the future| shifts in animal distributions and changes in ecosystem structure could accelerate (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved 11471,2010,2,4,Ocean scale hypoxia-based habitat compression of Atlantic istiophorid billfishes,Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) below near-surface optimums in the eastern tropical seas are among the largest contiguous areas of naturally occurring hypoxia in the world oceans| and are predicted to expand and shoal with global warming. In the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP)| the surface mixed layer is defined by a shallow thermocline above a barrier of cold hypoxic water| where dissolved oxygen levels are < 3.5 mL L-1. This thermocline (similar to 25-50 m) constitutes a lower hypoxic habitat boundary for high oxygen demand tropical pelagic billfish and tunas (i.e.| habitat compression). To evaluate similar oceanographic conditions found in the eastern tropical Atlantic (ETA)| we compared vertical habitat use of 32 sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) and 47 blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) monitored with pop-up satellite archival tags in the ETA and western North Atlantic (WNA). Both species spent significantly greater proportions of their time in near-surface waters when inside the ETA than when in the WNA. We contend that the near-surface density of billfish and tunas increases as a consequence of the ETA OMZ| therefore increasing their vulnerability to overexploitation by surface gears. Because the ETA OMZ encompasses nearly all Atlantic equatorial waters| the potential impacts of overexploitation are a concern. Considering the obvious differences in catchability inside and outside the compression zones| it seems essential to standardize these catch rates separately to minimize inaccuracies in stock assessments for these species. This is especially true in light of global warming| which will likely exacerbate future compression impacts. 10759,2010,2,4,Ocean warming increases threat of invasive species in a marine fouling community,We addressed the potential for climate change to facilitate invasions and precipitate shifts in community composition by testing effects of ocean warming on species in a marine fouling community in Bodega Harbor| Bodega Bay| California| USA. First| we determined that introduced species tolerated significantly higher temperatures than natives| suggesting that climate change will have a disproportionately negative impact on native species. Second| we assessed the temperature dependence of survival and growth by exposing juveniles to an ambient control temperature and increased temperatures predicted by ocean warming scenarios (+3 degrees C and +4.5 degrees C) in laboratory mesocosms. We found that responses differed between species| species origins| and demographic processes. Based on the temperature tolerance| survival| and growth results| we predict that| as ocean temperatures increase| native species will decrease in abundance| whereas introduced species are likely to increase in this system. Facilitation of invasions by climate change may already be underway; locally| invasive dominance has increased concurrent with ocean warming over the past similar to 40 years. We suggest that the effects of climate change on communities can occur via both direct impacts on the diversity and abundance of native species and indirect effects due to increased dominance of introduced species. 11311,2010,2,4,Oligotrophication outweighs effects of global warming in a large| deep| stratified lake ecosystem,Between 1951 and 1979| total phosphorous concentrations in Lake Constance increased from 7 to 87 mu g L-1. Following wastewater treatment| phosphorus levels were brought under control| returning to 7.6 mu g L-1 by spring 2007. The biological and chemical data from 1980 to 2004 were first modelled by seasonal time series analyses and then used to create a general model. Excluding collinear variables allowed the data set to be condensed to six variables that could be fitted into a general linear model that explained similar to 75% of the observed annual variation in chlorophyll a. A clear seasonal influence was apparent| with chlorophyll a tracking trends in temperature and the progress of spring. A nonseasonal influence was also observed in the interaction of two biological components| the proportion of phytoplankton biomass available to Daphnia (i.e. the percentage of ingestible size < 30 mu m) and the grazing intensity. In combination| these biotic variables had a negative impact on chlorophyll a levels. In contrast| the concentration of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) correlated positively with chlorophyll a. The effect of SRP showed a significant seasonal component| as it was more abundant in spring than at other times of year. In general| the model predicts a negative exponential response of chlorophyll a to further depletion of SRP in Lake Constance| while the temperature trends predicted by current global warming scenarios will result in a moderate increase in productivity. Data from 2005 to 2007 were used to verify the model. The modelled chlorophyll a values were nonbiased and showed a close match to the measured values (r2: 75%). Thus the applicability| reliability| and informative value of the model for pelagic Lake Constance was confirmed. The approach might easily be applied to other waters. 11310,2010,3,3,On fertilizer-induced soil carbon sequestration in China's croplands,Applications of fertilizer| often thought to enhance carbon sequestration in agricultural soils| are of no value to the mitigation of climate change if the carbon dioxide released during the production and distribution of nitrogen fertilizer exceeds the incremental carbon storage in soils from its use. Nitrogen fertilizer is also a source of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide. The recent analysis of carbon sequestration in cropland soils of China does not apply these 'discounts' to the global warming mitigation expected from greater use of fertilizer; doing so would likely eliminate all the climate benefits of the postulated enhanced carbon sequestration. 10446,2010,4,7,On some achievements and major problems in mathematical modeling of climatic characteristics of the Ocean (critical analysis),This paper is devoted to a brief critical review of major achievements and shortcomings in numerical modeling of climatic characteristics of the World Ocean. It is shown that the most interesting results are obtained due to the transition to high resolution (the horizontal grid spacing being no more than 1/18A degrees). The need to switch to higher resolution (about 0.01A degrees) is also obvious. The author deeply appreciates the study by Guo et al. [25] in which the role of JEBAR and other terms of the integral mass transport equation is assessed. High resolution| however| is not the only problem. A mathematical description of the physical processes of ice formation and melting and a four-dimensional analysis of the data remain a difficult problem. It is noted that in a number of studies extensive integration tends to filter out the results in a simulation of intense currents. This process of Sverdrupization of the integral mass transport is shown schematically in Fig. 2. An original scheme of the formation of the equatorial subsurface countercurrents is presented. The author suggests that neither modeling nor analyzing the resulting data show the presence of warming in the World Ocean; hence| there is no global warming in the atmosphere either. 10531,2010,3,4,On the performance of air conditioner with heat pipe for cooling air in the condenser,Improvement of the air conditioning system performance by using the heat pipe for cooling air before entering the condenser is presented. In the experiment| the heat pipe is fabricated from the straight copper tube with the diameter and length of 10| 600 mm| respectively. The arrangements of the heat pipe sets are arranged in the staggered layout with the tube rows of 1| 2| 3. R134a refrigerant is used as working fluid in the heat pipe set for this present study. By comparing with a conventional air conditioning system| the air conditioning system with three rows of heat pipe gives the highest COP and EER with increasing of 6.4%| 17.5%| respectively. On the global warming and environment problems| the results of this study are expected to lead to guidelines that will allow the improved performance of the air conditioning systems which reduce its energy consumption. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11042,2010,3,4,On the systematic design and selection of optimal working fluids for Organic Rankine Cycles,This work presents the first approach to the systematic design and selection of optimal working fluids for Organic Rankine Cycles (ORCs) based on computer aided molecular design (CAMD) and process optimization techniques. The resulting methodology utilizes group contribution methods in combination with multi-objective optimization technology for the generation of optimum working fluid candidates. Optimum designs of the corresponding ORC processes are then developed for the comprehensive set of molecules obtained at the CAMD stage| in order to identify working fluids that exhibit optimum performance in ORCs with respect to important economic| operating| safety and environmental indicators. The proposed approach is illustrated with a case study in the design of working fluids for a low-temperature ORC system. Particular attention is paid to safety and environmental characteristics such as flammability| toxicity| ozone depletion and global warming potential. The methodology systematically identified both novel and conventional molecular structures that enable optimum ORC process performance. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 618,2010,4,4,On the Variability of the Global Net Radiative Energy Balance of the Nonequilibrium Earth,Recent observations and model studies of the earth's radiative energy balance have focused attention on the earth's top of atmosphere (TOA) energy balance. This is the balance between the shortwave energy absorbed by the earth| which is represented by a spatially and temporally averaged absorbed flux (F) over bar (down arrow)| and the emitted longwave energy| which is represented by the corresponding averaged emitted flux (F) over bar (up arrow). The TOA average net flux (F) over bar (N) is defined as the difference between the two over the averaged area and time| which may be a local| regional| or global average. A global nonzero net flux represents a measure of imbalance between the energy being absorbed and emitted by the earth for the time interval in question. It is of interest to ask what the natural variability of the net flux might be and whether| during times of climate change| signals of important climate change processes might be detected against this natural background variation; examples of these signals include evidence of ocean heat storage| the effects of El Nino| and the radiative effects of volcanic eruptions. In this paper| the authors review the significance of the net flux| survey the observational evidence from a range of satellite instruments over several decades| and analyze some of the most recent observations from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) program to determine what signals and what natural variability might be expected in the TOA net flux. Based on this analysis| the use of broadband radiation measurements for global climate change studies can be assessed. 11116,2010,2,4,Onset and end of the rainy season and corn yields in Sao Paulo State| Brazil,The relationships between the rainy season and corn yields in Sao Paulo State were investigated. The results showed that rainfall and corn yields are strongly positively correlated in most of the region| particularly in the northeastern| eastern| northwestern and western parts of the state (i.e. values are higher than 0.5 significant at 95% confidence level). The analysis of the trends in the duration of the rainy season and the associated accumulated precipitation showed a tendency of higher precipitation and shorter rainy seasons. It has been suggested to be due to global warming. Although rainfall and crop yields were positively correlated| an increase in heavy rainfall events in future may lead to landslides| flash floods and consequently crop damage. During the period 1970-2003 there was an increase of the rainy season and rainfall in strong El Nino episodes while in the case of La Nina events the rainy season was shorter and the rainfall decreased. Results of case studies considering the 1997-98 El Nino and the 1998-99 La Nina suggested that the increase (decrease) of the duration of the rainy season during the El Nino (La Nina) event is associated with the increase (decrease) of corn yields in Sao Paulo State. Further studies with a record of corn yields longer than 14 years and considering other El Nino/La Nina episodes are needed to obtain a firm connection between corn yields and ENSO events in Sao Paulo State. 10529,2010,3,4,Open-loop recycling: A LCA case study of PET bottle-to-fibre recycling,This study assesses the environmental impact of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle-to-fibre recycling using the methodology of life-cycle assessment (LCA). Four recycling cases| including mechanical recycling| semi-mechanical recycling| back-to-oligomer recycling and back-to-monomer recycling were analysed. Three allocation methods are applied for open-loop recycling| i.e. the "cut-off" approach| the "waste valuation" approach and the "system expansion" approach. Nine environmental impact indicators were analysed| i.e. non-renewable energy use (NREU)| global warming potential (GWP)| abiotic depletion| acidification| eutrophication| human toxicity| fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity| terrestrial ecotoxicity and photochemical oxidant formation. The LCA results are compared with virgin PET fibre and other commodity fibre products| i.e. cotton| viscose| PP (polypropylene) and PLA (polylactic acid). The LCA results show that recycled PET fibres offer important environmental benefits over virgin PET fibre. Depending on the allocation methods applied for open-loop-recycling| NREU savings of 40-85% and GWP savings of 25-75% can be achieved. Recycled PET fibres produced by mechanical recycling cause lower environmental impacts than virgin PET in at least eight out of a total of nine categories. Recycled fibres produced from chemical recycling allow to reduce impacts in six to seven out of a total of nine categories compared to virgin PET fibres. Note that while mechanical recycling has a better environmental profile than chemical recycling| chemically recycled fibres can be applied in a wider range of applications than mechanically recycled fibres. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10455,2010,3,4,Optimal voltage control in distribution systems with coordination of distribution installations,In recent years| distributed generations based on natural energy or co-generation systems are increasing due to global warming and reduction of fossil fuels. Many of the distributed generations are set up in the vicinity of customers| with the advantage that this decreases transmission losses and transmission capacity. However| output power generated from renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaics| is influenced by weather conditions. Therefore if the distributed generation increases with conventional control schemes| the voltage variation in a distribution system becomes a serious problem. In this paper| an optimal control method of distribution voltage with coordination of distributed installations| such as On Load Tap Changer (OLTC)| Step Voltage Regulator (SVR)| Shunt Capacitor (SC)| Shunt Reactor (ShR)| and Static Var Compensator (SVC)| is proposed. In this research| the communication infrastructure is assumed to be widespread in the distribution network. The proposed technique combines genetic algorithm (GA) and Tabu search (TS) to determine the control operation. In order to confirm the validity of the proposed method| simulation results are presented for a distribution network model with distributed (photovoltaic) generation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10469,2010,3,3,Optimisation of carbon dioxide recovery from flue gas in a TPSA system,Power stations and industrial processes burning fossil fuels account for the largest percentage of carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon capture and sequestration has received enormous global attention to reduce the carbon footprint and combat global warming. Adsorption has become an alternative technique to the conventional absorption process for capturing carbon dioxide due to its low operating and capital costs. In this study| Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) process has been compared with Thermal Pressure Swing Adsorption (TPSA) process for CO| recovery from a flue gas composition of 10% CO(2) (by vol) in N(2) using Ceca 13X adsorbent. A factorial design set of experiments was performed to optimise the carbon dioxide recovery and study the effects and interaction of four control parameters namely| purge/feed flow ratio| purge time| purge gas temperature and adsorption column pressure. Results indicated that better regeneration conditions used in a TPSA cycle was essential over a PSA cycle for regaining maximum adsorption capacity of the used Ceca 13X adsorbent. It was found that Purge time had a significant effect on the CO(2)) recovery followed by Column pressure| purge/feed flow ratio and purge temperature. A Minitab (R) statistical software was used to analyse the data. It was found that the test of significance for lack of fit showed the fitted model to be an adequate representation of the experimental data. The results showed that to maximise the CO(2) recovery| highest values of the control parameters have to be used. 11464,2010,3,4,Optimisation of visi cooler with the low global warming potential refrigerant mixture as an alternative to R134a and HC blend,In this study| the performance of a visi cooler has been evaluated by using the ternary mixture of R134a/R290/R600a with five different mass fractions as an alternative to R134a and HC mixture. Baseline tests have been carried out with R134a and HC mixture and the performance parameters were compared with the five selected alternative refrigerant mixtures. The performance is optimised by varying the refrigerant charge and capillary tube length under experimental conditions for both the pull-down test and the energy consumption test. The optimised refrigerant charge of the ternary mixture is approximately 50% of that of the optimised R134a system and the global warming effects will be decreased by two-thirds. The cooling speed is increased by 25% and COP is increased by 9.9%. The length of the capillary is increased by 63.63% to obtain the best performance. The agreement between the predicted values and experimental values is found to be satisfactory. 10781,2010,3,4,Optimization design of BCHP system to maximize to save energy and reduce environmental impact,The energetic and environmental performances of building cooling heating and power (BCHP) system are closely dependent on its design and operation strategy. This paper analyzes the energy consumptions of a conventional separation production (SP) system and a BCHP system respectively and constructs their corresponding environmental impact models. Furthermore| three energy-related environmental issues| global warming| acid precipitation and stratospheric ozone depletion| are assessed in the proposed emission model. To maximize the benefits (energy-saving and emission-reducing) achieved by the BCHP system in comparison to the SP system| genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to optimize the capacity of BCHP system in consideration of its operation mode. A numerical case of BCHP system for a hotel building is applied to ascertain the effectiveness of the optimal method and demonstrate the performances of the optimal BCHP system. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11462,2010,3,4,Optimum organic loading rate for semi-continuous operation of an anaerobic process for biogas production from Jatropha curcas seed cake,This paper reports on biogas production by anaerobic digestion of Jatropha curcas seed cake in semi-continuous flow at 30 degrees C| focusing on increasing the organic loading rate (OLR) of seed cake by investigating levels of 1.25| 1.67| 2.5| 3.33 and 5 kg Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD)/m(3) day. Reactors were fed at flow rates of 125| 167| 250| 333 and 500 ml/day| yielding Hydraulic Retention Times (HRTs) of 40| 30| 20| 15 and 10 days. Increasing the OLR decreases the organic digestion. The highest methane yield (340 l at STP/kg COD degraded) was obtained at the OLR of 1.25 kg COD/m(3) day. 11530,2010,2,4,Orchids in Rhone-Alpes: recent knowledge and evolution,Orchids in Rhone-Alpes: recent knowledge and evolution The evolution of orchids in Rhone-Alpes observed since the middle of the 201 century is a consequence of increased coverage| most importantly since the publication of an inventory (around 1980). This work revealed the presence of hitherto unrecorded species| and others which were new to the region| aided by an improved taxonomy. Even though only one species (Anacamptis papilionacea) has disappeared from the region| many are threatened. Human activity modifies and restrains the terrain: encroachment of natural areas| abandonment of pastureland| loss of wetlands| where many rare or flagship species are found (Liparis loeselii| Spirconthes aestivalis| Anacamptis coriophora). The consequences of global warming are visible in the appearance of several taxa spreading from the south. Conversely|although no regression of alpine or cold-adapted species has yet been observed| one can seriously contemplate the disappearance of glacial relict species such as Chamorchis alpina. The SEO is preparing a new inventory of orchids in France for 2015-2020 which will require not only advanced technology and consensus| but also considerable human mobilisation. 360,2010,2,4,Organic matter availability during pre- and post-drought periods in a Mediterranean stream,Mediterranean streams are characterized by water flow changes caused by floods and droughts. When intermittency occurs in river ecosystems| hydrologic connectivity is interrupted and this affects benthic| hyporheic and flowing water compartments. Organic matter use and transport can be particularly affected during the transition from wet to dry and dry to wet conditions. In order to characterize the changes in benthic organic matter quantity and quality throughout a drying and rewetting process| organic matter| and enzyme activities were analyzed in the benthic accumulated material (biofilms growing on rocks and cobbles| leaves| and sand) and in flowing water (dissolved and particulate fractions). The total polysaccharide| amino acid| and lipid content in the benthic organic matter were on average higher in the drying period than in the rewetting period. However| during the drying period| peptide availability decreased| as indicated by decreases in leucine aminopeptidase activity| as well as amino acid content in the water and benthic material| except leaves; while polysaccharides were actively used| as indicated by an increase in beta-glucosidase activity in the benthic substrata and an increase in polysaccharide content of the particulate water fraction and in leaf material. During this process| microbial heterotrophs were constrained to use the organic matter source of the lowest quality (polysaccharides| providing only C)| since peptides (providing N and C) were no longer available. During the flow recovery phase| the microbial community rapidly recovered| suggesting the use of refuges and/or adaptation to desiccation during the previous drought period. The scouring during rewetting was responsible for the mobilization of the streambed and loss of benthic material| and the increase in high quality organic matter in transport (at that moment| polysaccharides and amino acids accounted for 30% of the total DOC). The dynamics of progressive and gradual drought effects| as well as the fast recovery after rewetting| might be affected by the interaction of the individual dynamics of each benthic substratum: sand sediments and leaves providing refuge for microorganisms and organic matter storage| while on cobbles| an active bacterial community is developed in the rewetting. Since global climate change may favor a higher intensity and frequency of droughts in streams| understanding the effects of these disturbances on the materials and biota could contribute to reliable resource management. The maintenance of benthic substrata heterogeneity within the stream may be important for stream recovery after droughts. 603,2010,2,4,Organismal climatology: analyzing environmental variability at scales relevant to physiological stress,Predicting when| where and with what magnitude climate change is likely to affect the fitness| abundance and distribution of organisms and the functioning of ecosystems has emerged as a high priority for scientists and resource managers. However| even in cases where we have detailed knowledge of current species' range boundaries| we often do not understand what| if any| aspects of weather and climate act to set these limits. This shortcoming significantly curtails our capacity to predict potential future range shifts in response to climate change| especially since the factors that set range boundaries under those novel conditions may be different from those that set limits today. We quantitatively examine a nine-year time series of temperature records relevant to the body temperatures of intertidal mussels as measured using biomimetic sensors. Specifically| we explore how a 'climatology' of body temperatures| as opposed to long-term records of habitat-level parameters such as air and water temperatures| can be used to extrapolate meaningful spatial and temporal patterns of physiological stress. Using different metrics that correspond to various aspects of physiological stress (seasonal means| cumulative temperature and the return time of extremes) we show that these potential environmental stressors do not always occur in synchrony with one another. Our analysis also shows that patterns of animal temperature are not well correlated with simple| commonly used metrics such as air temperature. Detailed physiological studies can provide guidance to predicting the effects of global climate change on natural ecosystems but only if we concomitantly record| archive and model environmental signals at appropriate scales. 10463,2010,3,3,Organizational forms for knowledge management in photovoltaic solar energy industry,In recent years. China has put great efforts into the combat against global warming and the mission of zero carbon emission. However| compared with leading countries such as Japan and Germany| China is still under high pressure to prosper its photovoltaic (PV) solar energy industry since its technologies are still far behind those countries. In knowledge intensive industry| a firm needs to develop new products as a participant within a certain industry because knowledge has become a critical factor that affects industry dynamics. In light of this situation| it is essential to propose a strategic policy to facilitate a firm in knowledge distribution| knowledge absorption| knowledge creation| and then to obtain competitive advantages. Until now| there has not been such strategic policy in China. In order to fulfill this vacancy| a conceptual model is proposed. First| the proposed model examines critical characteristics of successful PV solar energy industry in China. Second| a fuzzy analytic network process is developed to analyze suitable forms of organization for knowledge management in order to distribute existing knowledge as well as to create new knowledge. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 566,2010,2,4,Origins and scales of hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf: Importance of seasonal plankton dynamics and river nutrients and discharge,Management plans for the Mississippi River Basin call for reductions in nutrient concentrations up to 40% or more to reduce hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM)| while at the same time the government is considering new farm subsidies to promote development of biofuels from corn. Thus there are possibilities of both increasing and decreasing river nutrients depending on national priorities. River flow rates which also influence the extent of hypoxia on the shelf may be altered by global climate change. We have therefore developed a series of simulations to forecast ecosystem response to alterations in nutrient loading and river flow. We simulate ecosystem response and hypoxia events using a linked model consisting of multiple phytoplankton groups competing for nitrogen| phosphorus and light| zooplankton grazing that is influenced by prey edibility and stoichiometry| sub-pycnocline water-column metabolism that is influenced by sinking fecal pellets and algal cells| and multi-element sediment diagenesis. This model formulation depicts four areas of increasing salinity moving westward away from the Mississippi River point of discharge| where the surface mixed layer| four bottom layers and underlying sediments are represented in each area. The model supports the contention that a 40% decrease in river nutrient will substantially reduce the duration and areal extent of hypoxia on the shelf. But it also suggests that in low and middle salinity areas the hypoxia response is saturated with respect to nutrients| and that in high salinity regions small increases in nutrient and river flow will have disproportionally large effects on GOM hypoxia. The model simulations also suggest that river discharge is a stronger factor influencing hypoxia than river nutrients in the Mississippi River plume. Finally| the model simulations suggest that primary production in the low salinity regions is light limited while primary production in the higher salinity zones is phosphate limited during the May to October period when hypoxia is prevalent in the Mississippi River plume. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10704,2010,5,4,Ostracods and stable isotopes of a late glacial and Holocene lake record from the NE Tibetan Plateau,Ostracod assemblage changes and stable isotopes of ostracod shells were used to reconstruct the salinity history of Lake Donggi Cona on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau in response to the late glacial and Holocene climate history. Brackish and relatively unstable conditions were inferred for the earlier part of the late glacial between 18.9 and 13.4 cal ka BP and for the early to mid Holocene (11.9-6.8 cal ka BP). A saline lake existed in the intervening period probably representing colder and drier conditions during the Greenland Stadial 1 (=Younger Dryas in North Atlantic region). Freshwater conditions similar to the present stage of Lake Donggi Cona were established for the first time at 6.8 cal ka BP. This inference and the implied increase in moisture availability in the latter half of the Holocene is in contrast to most climate records from the Tibetan Plateau which suggest drier and colder conditions. However| three lake records from the eastern Tibetan Plateau including our new record show that the Holocene insolation-driven monsoonal weakening and temperature decrease caused a catchment-specific| opposite response of the moisture availability in comparison to those at the majority of sites. Catchments with relatively low precipitation at present experienced apparently a moisture availability increase during the colder second half of the Holocene in contrast to the inferred drier conditions at predominantly generally wetter sites. The increase in moisture availability at relatively dry sites mainly results from the lowered temperature and evaporation but is probably further controlled by a complex of factors including the amount and timing of precipitation| the altitudes of the lake basins and upper reaches| and the existence or development of glaciers| snow fields and frozen ground in a given catchment. Our record from Lake Donggi Cona suggests that the recently observed reduction in Yellow River discharge in response to present global warming will likely continue or even increase under warmer climatic conditions in the future. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11262,2010,4,3,Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction,Decadal-scale climate variations over the Pacific Ocean and its surroundings are strongly related to the so-called Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) which is coherent with wintertime climate over North America and Asian monsoon| and have important impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. In a near-term climate prediction covering the period up to 2030| we require knowledge of the future state of internal variations in the climate system such as the PDO as well as the global warming signal. We perform sets of ensemble hindcast and forecast experiments using a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model to examine the predictability of internal variations on decadal timescales| in addition to the response to external forcing due to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols| volcanic activity| and solar cycle variations. Our results highlight that an initialization of the upper-ocean state using historical observations is effective for successful hindcasts of the PDO and has a great impact on future predictions. Ensemble hindcasts for the 20th century demonstrate a predictive skill in the upper-ocean temperature over almost a decade| particularly around the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension (KOE) and subtropical oceanic frontal regions where the PDO signals are observed strongest. A negative tendency of the predicted PDO phase in the coming decade will enhance the rising trend in surface air-temperature (SAT) over east Asia and over the KOE region| and suppress it along the west coasts of North and South America and over the equatorial Pacific. This suppression will contribute to a slowing down of the global-mean SAT rise. 549,2010,5,4,Paleoenvironmental and archaeological investigations at Qinghai Lake| western China: Geomorphic and chronometric evidence of lake level history,Qinghai Lake| located on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (Qing-Zang Gaoyuan)| is China's largest extant closed-basin lake. Its position relative to major Asian climate systems makes it sensitive to global climate change. The lake has been the subject of numerous paleoenvironmental investigations including dating of shoreline features around the lake basin. Here we report new age estimates of shoreline features| geomorphic exposures and archaeological sites that contribute to the development of a lake-level history for Qinghai Lake and a landscape model of the Qinghai Lake Basin. Lake highstands above 3230 m (similar to 36 m above the modern lake level) appear to date to late MIS 5| similar to 70-110 ka. The lake has had much more modest highstands since then: no evidence of MIS 3 lake stands higher than modern were found| and early Holocene highstands are no more than similar to 12 m above modern. If the age of highstands greater than 3230 m is confirmed through future work| then the Qinghai Lake Basin hydrologic balance prior to similar to 70 ka was dramatically different than after that time| including during the Holocene. A simple hydrologic balance model provides insights into the combination of precipitation| evaporation| and runoff generation needed to sustain the lake at 3260 m| the highest shoreline observed. A range of factors may explain the difference| primarily the relative strength of the East Asian monsoon. The basin was apparently subject to extensive alluviation during MIS 3| interrupted by widespread erosion and development of cryogenic features before and during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Loess that presently drapes much of the lower basin landscape began to be deposited after the LGM| similar to 16-18 ka. The landscape model outlined here has implications for archaeological visibility of early human occupation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 11238,2010,3,4,Parameter uncertainty in LCA: stochastic sampling under correlation,At the parameter level| data inaccuracy| data gaps| and the use of unrepresentative data have been recognized as sources of uncertainty in life cycle assessment (LCA). In many LCA uncertainty studies| parameter distributions were created based on the measured variability or on "rules of thumb|" but the possible existence of correlation was not explored. The correlation between parameters may alter the sampling space and| thus| yield unrepresentative results. The objective of this article is to describe the effect of correlation between input parameters (and the final product) on the outcome of an uncertainty analysis| carried out for an LCA of an agricultural product. After a theoretical discussion about the statistical concepts on the creation of multivariate random distributions for a Monte Carlo simulation| a LCA case study for potatoes was performed. LCA followed the International Standards Organization guidelines| and the CML baseline characterization method was applied. The functional unit was 1 t of potatoes| while the inputs were restricted to inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. Differences among the two ways to assess uncertainty (with or without correlation) were analyzed through Monte Carlo methodologies| based on the respective estimated probability density functions. In order to demonstrate the effect of correlation on the final outcome| only global warming potential| acidification| and eutrophication impact categories are presented. The LCA outcome evidenced the highest environmental impact for N-based fertilizers. Environmental impact of the pesticides to the categories considered was minimum| while its contribution in the characterization phase was lower than 10%. Different degrees of correlation were found between the input factors analyzed and also in relation with yield. Uncertainty analysis results indicated a lower uncertainty level for abiotic depletion and global warming when correlation was taken into account| and the Monte Carlo simulations were based on a multivariate sampling space. The results presented allowed the inclusion of the existence of such correlation within the sampling space for a Monte Carlo simulation. Multivariate sampling spaces can be included in LCA uncertainty analysis but only if sensitivity analysis are done previously in order to identify the input factors with the highest contribution to the output uncertainty. The results of an LCA uncertainty analysis at the parameter level may lead to the wrong conclusions when the input parameters are correlated. Under a Monte Carlo procedure| the sampling space derived from univariate or multivariate normal distributions exert a varying degree of error propagation leading to different responses in the uncertainty analysis. 11402,2010,2,4,Parasites and global warming: net effects of temperature on an intertidal host-parasite system,Climate changes| particularly global warming| are likely to impact host-parasite interactions. However| our understanding of the effects of environmental factors on marine host-parasite systems is limited. We conducted a series of laboratory experiments on the effects of temperature on all transmission steps of the intertidal trematode Maritrema novaezealandensis from its first intermediate snail host Zeacumantus subcarinatus to the second intermediate amphipod host Paracalliope novizealandiae. By measuring output of cercarial transmission stages from snails| cercarial survival and infectivity| susceptibility of amphipods to infections| amphipod survival and parasite development within amphipods| we evaluated overall net temperature effects. At low temperatures (<20 degrees C)| transmission was low and amphipod survival unaffected. At intermediate temperatures (20 to 25 degrees C)| output and infectivity of cercarial transmission stages was at an optimum| which may increase the risk of infection intensity-dependent mortality of amphipods. Also| temperature directly increased amphipod mortality| but accelerated parasite development within amphipods. At high temperatures (>= 30 degrees C)| transmission of the parasite was reduced (few cercariae| low infectivity)| but temperature-induced mortality of amphipods was most pronounced. Our approach revealed that temperature strongly| but differentially| affects the various steps of the transmission process| pointing to the amphipod as the most vulnerable component. An increased impact of parasites on amphipod populations with global warming is predicted and the possible disruption of the host-parasite system seems realistic under unusual future circumstances such as prolonged heatwaves. We suggest that more holistic studies of host-parasite interactions are essential for a better understanding of potential responses of host-parasite systems to global changes. 399,2010,2,4,Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application,Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation| few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply| for a limited number of adaptation strategies| and apply the method using results of two climate models. In this paper| adaptation costs are defined as those for providing enough raw water to meet future industrial and municipal water demand| based on country-level demand projections to 2050. We first estimate costs for a baseline scenario excluding climate change| and then additional climate change adaptation costs. Increased demand is assumed to be met through a combination of increased reservoir yield and alternative backstop measures. Under such controversial measures| we project global adaptation costs of $12 bn p.a.| with 83-90% in developing countries; the highest costs are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Globally| adaptation costs are low compared to baseline costs ($73 bn p.a.)| which supports the notion of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into broader policy aims. The method provides a tool for estimating broad costs at the global and regional scale; such information is of key importance in international negotiations. 10419,2010,3,3,Particuology and climate change,The global concern over the greenhouse gas emissions and its effect on global warming and climate change has focused attention on the necessity of carbon dioxide capture and sequestration. There are many processes proposed to capture carbon either before or after combustion and these processes invariably involve investigation and application of traditional particuology. The solids employed are of different sizes| densities| morphologies. and strengths. Their handling| transportation| recirculation| and reactor applications are the essence of 'particuology'. Particuology can play an important and vital role in achieving cost-effective removal of carbon and minimize emissions of greenhouse gases. In this paper| the existing and developing carbon capture processes are briefly reviewed and the opportunities for application of particuology are identified. The review was not intended to be exhaustive. It is only in sufficient detail to make connection between particuology and climate change. For immediate and future challenges of reducing global warming and carbon capture and sequestration| innovative reactor design and application of particuology is imperative. Expertise and innovation in particuology can greatly enhance the speed of development of those technologies and help to achieve cost-effective implementation. Particuology is indeed intimately related to the climate change and global warming. (C) 2010 Chinese Society of Particuology and Institute of Process Engineering| Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11319,2010,2,4,Past| current and future thermal profiles of green turtle nesting grounds: Implications from climate change,Sex determination and hatching success in sea turtles is temperature dependent and as a result global warming poses a threat to sea turtles. Warmer sand temperatures may skew sea turtle population's sex ratios towards predominantly females and decrease hatching success. Therefore| understanding the rates at which sand temperatures are likely to increase as climate change progresses is warranted. We recorded sand temperature and used historical sea surface and air temperature to model past and to predict future sand temperature under various scenarios of global warming at key sea turtle nesting grounds (n = 7) used by the northern Great Barrier Reef (nGBR) green turtle| Chelonia mydas| population. Reconstructed temperatures from 1990 to the present suggest that sand temperatures at the nesting sites studied have not changed significantly during the last 18 years. Current thermal profile at the nesting grounds suggests a bias towards female hatchling production into this population. Inter-beach thermal variance was observed at some nesting grounds with open areas in the sand dune at northern facing beaches having the warmest incubating environments. Our model projections suggest that a near complete feminization of hatchling output into this population will occur by 2070 under an extreme scenario of climate change (A1T emission scenario). Importantly| we found that some nesting grounds will still produce male hatchlings| under the most extreme scenario of climate change| this finding differs from predictions for other locations. Information from this study provides a better understanding of possible future changes in hatching success and sex ratios at each site and identifies important male producing regions. This allowed us to suggest strategies that can be used at a local scale to offset some of the impacts of warmer incubating temperatures to sea turtles. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11209,2010,2,4,Patterns of ant species diversity and turnover across 2000 km of Amazonian floodplain forest,Aim To determine the effect and relative importance of geographic and local environmental factors on species richness and turnover of ant assemblages in floodplain forests across the Amazon basin. Location Twenty-six mature forest sites scattered along the entire extension of the Amazon River in Brazil. The study area encompassed nearly 18 degrees of longitude and 3.5 degrees of latitude. Methods Systematic collections of ants were performed at each site during the low-water season (i.e. when forests are not inundated) using three complementary sampling methods. We used variance partitioning techniques to assess the relative effects of the spatial (latitude and longitude) and environmental (rainfall| length of the dry season and flood height) variables on ant species richness and composition. Results There was a twofold variation in the number of species per site| which was largely explained by inter-site variations in rainfall seasonality and flooding intensity. In general| there were more species at sites located in the western part of the basin| where the dry season is less severe| or near the river estuary| where precipitation is also high and flooding is less intense. Ant community composition was also affected by environmental heterogeneity. For instance| some species only occurred at those sites less affected by the river's seasonal flooding| whereas others were mostly associated with the drier or wetter regions of the basin. In addition| the turnover of species increased significantly as geographic distances increased. Nevertheless| the rate of change was small given that many species had a broad distribution across the study area. Main conclusions Ant distribution patterns along the floodplain forests of the Amazon appear to be controlled to a relatively large extent by the current gradient in flooding intensity and - most importantly - in precipitation. Altered rainfall regimes resulting from global warming and land-use change thus have the potential to influence these patterns. 11290,2010,2,4,Patterns of covariation among weather conditions| winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and reproductive traits in Mediterranean kestrels,Changes in local weather conditions may affect reproduction in birds. In this study| we evaluated how changes in both local weather and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (the NAO| an index of non-local climatic conditions) could explain variation in selected reproductive traits (laying date| clutch size| hatching and fledging success) in Mediterranean kestrels Falco tinnunculus over 10 years. Kestrels (1) delayed the laying date in rainier springs; (2) laid smaller clutches after warmer and rainier winters| independently from the laying date; (3) had higher hatching success after warmer and dry winters and in warmer and rainier springs; (4) had higher fledging success in warmer and rainier springs. Thus| changes in the weather and the winter NAO index affected reproductive decisions and reproductive success. Predicting the long-term effects of global warming on the viability of Mediterranean populations of kestrels and other birds of prey is difficult. Whether the reproduction of birds of prey will be positively or negatively affected by global warming will depend on the relative importance of changes in temperature and rainfall. 378,2010,2,4,Perennial snow and ice variations (2000-2008) in the Arctic circumpolar land area from satellite observations,Perennial snow and ice (PSI) extent is an important parameter of mountain environments with regard to its involvement in the hydrological cycle and the surface energy budget. We investigated interannual variations of PSI in nine mountain regions of interest (ROI) between 2000 and 2008. For that purpose| a novel MODIS data set processed at the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing at 250 m spatial resolution was utilized. The extent of PSI exhibited significant interannual variations| with coefficients of variation ranging from 5% to 81% depending on the ROI. A strong negative relationship was found between PSI and positive degree-days (threshold 0 degrees C) during the summer months in most ROIs| with linear correlation coefficients (r) being as low as r = -0.90. In the European Alps and Scandinavia| PSI extent was significantly correlated with annual net glacier mass balances| with r = 0.91 and r = 0.85| respectively| suggesting that MODIS-derived PSI extent may be used as an indicator of net glacier mass balances. Validation of PSI extent in two land surface classifications for the years 2000 and 2005| GLC-2000 and Globcover| revealed significant discrepancies of up to 129% for both classifications. With regard to the importance of such classifications for land surface parameterizations in climate and land surface process models| this is a potential source of error to be investigated in future studies. The results presented here provide an interesting insight into variations of PSI in several ROIs and are instrumental for our understanding of sensitive mountain regions in the context of global climate change assessment. 10712,2010,3,3,Performance analyses of oxy-fuel power generation systems including CO(2) capture: comparison of two cycles using different recirculation fluids,With increasing concerns on global warming| reduction of CO(2) emission has become a hot issue and studies of CO(2) capture and storage (CCS) technology in power plant applications are in progress. Oxy-fuel combustion is one of the several available technologies that intend to capture CO(2). Since the combustion gas consists mainly of CO(2) and H(2)O in oxy-fuel combustion systems| it is easy to separate CO(2) from the flue gas using a simple mechanical method instead of complex chemical processes. There have been suggested a couple of power cycles using different recirculation fluids for combustion dilution purpose. This study aimed to investigate the influence of CO(2) capture on the performance of two promising oxy-fuel combustion power cycles adopting H(2)O and CO(2) as the recirculation fluid. Optimal integration between the carbon capture process and the power cycle was examined and the influences of carbon capture on the entire system performance were compared for the two cycles. 10833,2010,3,2,Performance and emission studies on port injection of hydrogen with varied flow rates with Diesel as an ignition source,Automobiles are one of the major sources of air pollution in the environment. In addition CO(2) emission| a product of complete combustion also has become a serious issue due to global warming effect. Hence the search for cleaner alternative fuels has become mandatory. Hydrogen is expected to be one of the most important fuels in the near future for solving the problems of air pollution and greenhouse gas problems (carbon dioxide)| thereby protecting the environment. Hence in the present work| an experimental investigation has been carried out using hydrogen in the dual fuel mode in a Diesel engine system. In the study| a Diesel engine was converted into a dual fuel engine and hydrogen fuel was injected into the intake port while Diesel was injected directly inside the combustion chamber during the compression stroke. Diesel injected inside the combustion chamber will undergo combustion first which in-turn would ignite the hydrogen that will also assist the Diesel combustion. Using electronic control unit (ECU)| the injection timings and injection durations were varied for hydrogen injection while for Diesel the injection timing was 23 degrees crank angle (CA) before injection top dead centre (BITDC). Based on the performance| combustion and emission characteristics| the optimized injection timing was found to be 5 degrees CA before gas exchange top dead centre (BGTDC) with injection duration of 30 degrees CA for hydrogen Diesel dual fuel operation. The optimum hydrogen flow rate was found to be 7.5 lpm. Results indicate that the brake thermal efficiency in hydrogen Diesel dual fuel operation increases by 15% compared to Diesel fuel at 75% load. The NO(x) emissions were higher by 1-2% in dual fuel operation at full load compared to Diesel. Smoke emissions are lower in the entire load spectra due to the absence of carbon in hydrogen fuel. The carbon monoxide (CO)| carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions were lesser in hydrogen Diesel dual fuel operation compared to Diesel. The use of hydrogen in the dual fuel mode in a Diesel engine improves the performance and reduces the exhaust emissions from the engine except for HC and NO(x) emissions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11354,2010,3,4,Performance Assessment of an R-134A Domestic Dehumidifier Retrofitted with a Hydrocarbon Mixture,This study evaluates the feasibility and coefficient of performance of a domestic dehumidifier when its refrigerant is changed from R-134a to R-600a/R-290 mixed refrigerant (50:50 by mass). Without changing any dehumidifier components| experimental results demonstrate that superior performance characteristics can be achieved with 67.5 g of HC refrigerant| which is only 50% of the original mass of the R-134a refrigerant. Generally| the refrigerant in domestic dehumidifiers can be changed from R-134a to a R-600a/R-290 refrigerant mixture| and the ozone depletion potential and global warming potential are negligible when compared with those of the R-134a refrigerant. 11316,2010,3,4,Performance of a single-stage Linde-Hampson refrigerator operating with binary refrigerants at the temperature level of-60 degrees C,The optimization of the performance of a single-stage Linde-Hampson refrigerator (LHR) operating with six different binary refrigerants (R23/R134a| R23/R227ea| R23/R236ea| R170/R290| R170/R600a and R170/R600) with ozone depletion potentials (ODPs) of zero was conducted using a new approach at the temperature level of -60 degrees C. Among these binary refrigerants| the 0.55 and the 0.6 mole fractions of R23 for R23/R236ea are the most prospective nonflammable ones for the medium and low suction pressure compressors| respectively. For these two kinds of compressors| the 0.6 and the 0.65 mole fractions of R170 for R170/R600| respectively| are the most prospective binary refrigerants with low global warming potentials (GWPs). The results of optimization of pressure levels indicate that the optimum low pressure value for coefficients of performance (COP) is achieved when the minimum temperature differences occur at both the hot and the cold ends of the recuperator at a specified composition and pressure ratio. Two useful new parameters| the entropy production per unit heat recuperated and the ratio of heat recuperating capacity to the power consumption of the compression| were introduced to analyze the exergy loss ratio in the recuperator. The new approach employed in this paper also suggests a promising application even to the optimization of the performance with multi-component refrigerants. 466,2010,2,4,Performance of the invasive weevil Polydrusus sericeus is influenced by atmospheric CO(2) and host species,Natural forest systems constitute a major portion of the world's land area| and are subject to the potentially negative effects of both global climate change and invasion by exotic insects. A suite of invasive weevils has become established in the northern hardwood forests of North America. How these insects will respond to increasing CO(2) or O(3) is unknown. The present study examined the effects of elevated atmospheric CO(2) and O(3) on the invasive weevil Polydrusus sericeus Schaller at the Aspen Free Air CO(2) Enrichment (FACE) site near Rhinelander| Wisconsin. A performance assay was conducted in the laboratory during the summer of 2007 using mated pairs of P. sericeus fed a combination of aspen| birch and maple foliage. We recorded leaf area consumption| oviposition and adult longevity. We also conducted visual abundance surveys in the field from 2004 to 2007 on aspen and birch at Aspen FACE. Elevated CO(2)| but not O(3)| significantly affected P. sericeus performance. Female| but not male| longevity was reduced under elevated CO(2). Polydrusus sericeus also produced fewer eggs under elevated CO(2) conditions compared with ambient conditions. Adult P. sericeus strongly preferred birch over both aspen and maple| regardless of fumigation treatment. The effects of elevated CO(2) on P. sericeus populations at Aspen FACE were minimal| and varied among years and host tree species. Polydrusus sericeus abundance was significantly greater on birch than aspen. Over the long term| elevated CO(2) may reduce adult female longevity and fecundity of P. sericeus. Further studies are needed to evaluate how this information may scale to ecosystem impacts. 10391,2010,2,4,Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10-1900,Recent studies have linked climatic and social instabilities in ancient China; the underlying causal mechanisms have| however| often not been quantitatively assessed. Here| using historical records and palaeoclimatic reconstructions during AD 10-1900| we demonstrate that war frequency| price of rice| locust plague| drought frequency| flood frequency and temperature in China show two predominant periodic bands around 160 and 320 years where they interact significantly with each other. Temperature cooling shows direct positive association with the frequency of external aggression war to the Chinese dynasties mostly from the northern pastoral nomadic societies| and indirect positive association with the frequency of internal war within the Chinese dynasties through drought and locust plagues. The collapses of the agricultural dynasties of the Han| Tang| Song and Ming are more closely associated with low temperature. Our study suggests that food production during the last two millennia has been more unstable during cooler periods| resulting in more social conflicts owing to rebellions within the dynasties or/and southward aggressions from northern pastoral nomadic societies in ancient China. 10412,2010,4,5,Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes,Time series of solar radiation and north Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) index were used to analyze their causality relationship with various periodic oscillations in reconstructed millennial global-mean temperature series. The three long-term periods of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP)| Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent Global Warming Period (GWP) were distinct in the temperature series. 21-year| 65-year| 115-year and 200-year oscillations were derived from the temperature series after removing three long-term climatic temperatures. The phases of temperature oscillations significantly lagged behind oceanic SST and solar radiation variability. The recent decadal warm period was caused by the quasi-21-year temperature oscillation. At this century-cross period| the four oscillations reached their peaks simultaneously| which did not occur during the last millennium. Based on the long-term trend during the GWP and the four periodic oscillations| global-mean temperature is expected to drop to a new cool period in the 2030s and then a rising trend would be towards to a new warm period in the 2060s.
395,2010,3,2,Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases,Emissions of a broad range of greenhouse gases of varying lifetimes contribute to global climate change. Carbon dioxide displays exceptional persistence that renders its warming nearly irreversible for more than 1|000 y. Here we show that the warming due to non-CO(2) greenhouse gases| although not irreversible| persists notably longer than the anthropogenic changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations themselves. We explore why the persistence of warming depends not just on the decay of a given greenhouse gas concentration but also on climate system behavior| particularly the timescales of heat transfer linked to the ocean. For carbon dioxide and methane| nonlinear optical absorption effects also play a smaller but significant role in prolonging the warming. In effect| dampening factors that slow temperature increase during periods of increasing concentration also slow the loss of energy from the Earth's climate system if radiative forcing is reduced. Approaches to climate change mitigation options through reduction of greenhouse gas or aerosol emissions therefore should not be expected to decrease climate change impacts as rapidly as the gas or aerosol lifetime| even for short-lived species; such actions can have their greatest effect if undertaken soon enough to avoid transfer of heat to the deep ocean. 631,2010,2,4,Perspectives: Gene expression in fisheries management,Functional genes and gene expression have been connected to physiological traits linked to effective production and broodstock selection in aquaculture| selective implications of commercial fish harvest| and adaptive changes reflected in non-commercial fish populations subject to human disturbance and climate change. Gene mapping using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to identify functional genes| gene expression (analogue microarrays and real-time PCR)| and digital sequencing technologies looking at RNA transcripts present new concepts and opportunities in support of effective and sustainable fisheries. Genomic tools have been rapidly growing in aquaculture research addressing aspects of fish health| toxicology| and early development. Genomic technologies linking effects in functional genes involved in growth| maturation and life history development have been tied to selection resulting from harvest practices. Incorporating new and ever-increasing knowledge of fish genomes is opening a different perspective on local adaptation that will prove invaluable in wild fish conservation and management. Conservation of fish stocks is rapidly incorporating research on critical adaptive responses directed at the effects of human disturbance and climate change through gene expression studies. Genomic studies of fish populations can be generally grouped into three broad categories: 1) evolutionary genomics and biodiversity; 2) adaptive physiological responses to a changing environment; and 3) adaptive behavioral genomics and life history diversity. We review current genomic research in fisheries focusing on those that use microarrays to explore differences in gene expression among phenotypes and within or across populations| information that is critically important to the conservation of fish and their relationship to humans [Current Zoology 56 (1): 157-174| 2010]. 11488,2010,3,3,PFC-Free Dry Etching Method for Si Using Narrow-Gap VHF Plasma at Subatmospheric Pressure,We propose a Si dry etching method that does not require any perfluorocarbon (PFC) source gases with a high global warming potential. This method uses a narrow-gap| very high frequency (VHF) glow plasma of an O(2)/He gas mixture at subatmospheric pressure to generate etchant species (such as fluorine atoms) from the stable solid poly(tetrafluoroethylene) (PTFE) resin. The gas component generated by the chemical reaction between the plasma and PTFE is studied by Fourier transform IR gas analysis. In using a pure He plasma| the generated gases almost consist of PFC molecules. On the contrary| in the O(2)/He mixture plasma| stable gaseous species generated from the PTFE source mainly consist of CO(2) and COF(2). The etching rate of Si depends on both oxygen partial pressure (P(O2)) and input electric power (W(VHF)). Especially| the Si etching rate is very sensitive to P(O2). These results combined with the detailed analysis of optical emission spectra suggest that the oxygen addition suppresses the generation of higher order C(x)F(y) (x>1) molecules and increases the etchant species| such as F(2) and COF(2). A very high Si etching rate of 27 mu m/min at P(O2)=40 Torr and W(VHF)=250 W has been attained. 10580,2010,2,2,Phenological asynchrony between herbivorous insects and their hosts: signal of climate change or pre-existing adaptive strategy?,Climate change alters phenological relations between interacting species. We might expect the historical baseline| or starting-point| for such effects to be precise synchrony between the season at which a consumer most requires food and the time when its resources are most available. We synthesize evidence that synchrony was not the historical condition in two insect-plant interactions involving Edith's checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha)| the winter moth (Operophtera brumata) and their host plants. Initial observations of phenological mismatch in both systems were made prior to the onset of anthropogenically driven climate change. Neither species can detect the phenology of its host plants with precision. In both species| evolution of life history has involved compromise between maximizing fecundity and minimizing mortality| with the outcome being superficially maladaptive strategies in which many| or even most| individuals die of starvation through poor synchrony with their host plants. Where phenological asynchrony or mismatch with resources forms the starting point for effects of anthropogenic global warming| consumers are particularly vulnerable to impacts that exacerbate the mismatch. This vulnerability likely contributed to extinction of a well-studied metapopulation of Edith's checkerspot| and to the skewed geographical pattern of population extinctions underlying a northward and upward range shift in this species. 10552,2010,2,4,Phenological shifts of three interacting zooplankton groups in relation to climate change,Over the past several decades| global warming has been linked to shifts in the distributions and abundances of species. In the southern North Sea| temperatures have increased in the last three decades and this will likely have consequences on the seasonality of marine organisms living in the area. Ctenophores such as Beroe gracilis and Pleurobrachia pileus could be particularly affected by changes in their own phenology and that of their prey| thus causing shifts in ecosystem function. Despite their global relevance and their potentially deleterious effect on the fishing industry| only a few long-term records of ctenophore abundance exist| and most of these records are semiquantitative in nature. Therefore| our knowledge of the influence of environmental factors on their population development is presently very limited. In this study| the long-term abundance dynamics of B. gracilis| P. pileus and their food calanoid copepods were analysed for a highly temporally resolved time series in the German Bight at Helgoland Roads. Special attention was focused on the response of these organisms to climate warming. Bayesian statistics showed that the phenology of the two ctenophores shifted in a step-like mode in the year 1987/1988 to permanent earlier appearances. The seasonal change in the population blooms of P. pileus and B. gracilis correlated remarkably well with a step-like increase in winter and spring sea surface temperatures of the southern North Sea. Possible explanations for the changes observed in these organisms include higher reproductive rates| increased winter survival rates or both. Interannual variations in ctenophore abundances correlated best with the interannual changes in spring temperatures| although the impact of temperature on B. gracilis appeared less pronounced. The changes in copepods abundance were not consistent with changes in P. pileus and B. gracilis. P. pileus showed longer periods of high abundance after the permanent seasonal advancement. These longer periods were correlated with a decline in the average autumn abundance of copepods. Changes in the phenology of these organisms raise the concerns on the declining state of fish stocks| which could potentially be exacerbated by gelatinous zooplankton outbreaks. These conditions may ultimately lead to trophic dead ends by channelling the flow of energy away from higher trophic levels. 11499,2010,2,4,Phenology| ontogeny and the effects of climate change on the timing of species interactions,Climate change is altering the phenology of many species and the timing of their interactions with other species| but the impacts of these phenological shifts on species interactions remain unclear. Classical approaches to the study of phenology have typically documented changes in the timing of single life-history events| while phenological shifts affect many interactions over entire life histories. In this study| we suggest an approach that integrates the phenology and ontogeny of species interactions with a fitness landscape to provide a common mechanistic framework for investigating phenological shifts. We suggest that this ontogeny-phenology landscape provides a flexible method to document changes in the relative phenologies of interacting species| examine the causes of these phenological shifts| and estimate their consequences for interacting species. Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 1-10. 11190,2010,2,4,Photosynthetic temperature adaptation of Pinus cembra within the timberline ecotone of the Central Austrian Alps,Temperature is suggested to determine the upper limit of tree life. Therefore| future climate warming may be of importance for tree distribution within the European Alps| where low temperatures limit carbon metabolism. We focused on the effects of air and soil temperature on net photosynthesis (P(n)) of Pinus cembra an evergreen climax species of the timberline ecotone of the Central Austrian Alps. Light response and temperature response curves were estimated along an altitudinal gradient ranging from the forest limit up to the krummholz limit in both summer and fall. In general| P(n) was significantly lower in fall as compared to summer. Nevertheless| independent from season mean P(n) values tended to increase with elevation and were positively correlated with root zone temperatures. The specific leaf area by contrast declined with increasing elevation. Furthermore| the temperature optimum of net photosynthesis declined with increasing elevation and was positively correlated with the mean maximum air temperature of the 10 days prior the date of measurement. Thus| our findings appear to reflect a long-term adaptation of the photosynthetic apparatus of Pinus cembra to the general temperature conditions with respect to elevation combined with a short term acclimation to the prevailing temperature regime. 11167,2010,2,4,Physiological climatic limits in Drosophila: patterns and implications,Physiological limits determine susceptibility to environmental changes| and can be assessed at the individual| population or species/lineage levels. Here I discuss these levels in Drosophila| and consider implications for determining species susceptibility to climate change. Limits at the individual level in Drosophila depend on experimental technique and on the context in which traits are evaluated. At the population level| evidence from selection experiments particularly involving Drosophila melanogaster indicate high levels of heritable variation and evolvability for coping with thermal stresses and aridity. An exception is resistance to high temperatures| which reaches a plateau in selection experiments and has a low heritability/evolvability when temperatures are ramped up to a stressful level. In tropical Drosophila species| populations are limited in their ability to evolve increased desiccation and cold resistance. Population limits can arise from trait and gene interactions but results from different laboratory studies are inconsistent and likely to underestimate the strength of interactions under field conditions. Species and lineage comparisons suggest phylogenetic conservatism for resistance to thermal extremes and other stresses. Plastic responses set individual limits but appear to evolve slowly in Drosophila. There is more species-level variation in lower thermal limits and desiccation resistance compared with upper limits| which might reflect different selection pressures and/or low evolvability. When extremes are considered| tropical Drosophila species do not appear more threatened than temperate species by higher temperatures associated with global warming| contrary to recent conjectures. However| species from the humid tropics may be threatened if they cannot adapt genetically to drier conditions. 11140,2010,2,4,Plankton response to weakening of the Iberian coastal upwelling,Coastal upwelling regions| which are affected by equatorward-wind variability| are among the most productive areas of the oceans. It has been suggested that global warming will lead to a general strengthening of coastal upwelling| with important ecological implications and an impact on fisheries. However| in the case of the Iberian upwelling| the long-term analysis of climatological variables described here reveals a weakening in coastal upwelling. This is linked to a decrease of zonal sea level pressure gradient| and correlated with an observed increase of sea surface temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation. Weakening of coastal upwelling has led to quantifiable modifications of the ecosystem. In outer shelf waters a drop in new production over the last 40 years is likely related to the reduction of sardine landings at local harbors. On the other hand| in inner shelf and Ria waters| the observed weakening of upwelling has slowed down the residual circulation that introduces nutrients to the euphotic layer| and has increased the stability of the water column. The drop in nutrient levels has been compensated by an increase of organic matter remineralization. The phytoplankton community has responded to those environmental trends with an increase in the percentage of dinoflagellates and Pseudonitzschia spp. and a reduction in total diatoms. The former favors the proliferation of harmful algal blooms and reduces the permitted harvesting period for the mussel aquaculture industry. The demise of the sardine fishery and the potential threat to the mussel culture could have serious socio-economic consequences for the region. 10975,2010,3,4,Planning Energy-Efficient and Eco-Sustainable Telecommunications Networks,Global warming and escalating energy costs have provided the impetus for a worldwide movement to reduce energy consumption and the associated environmental impacts arising from carbon emissions. Telecommunications providers are contributing to this effort by assessing the impacts of their products and offering telepresence and enhanced data services to their customers to reduce the need for travel and shipping. While greater use of services like these results in lower worldwide energy needs| higher energy usage by the telecommunications providers themselves will occur unless they make changes to their operations environment. There are many ways to reduce the energy usage and environmental impact of telecommunications networks. Choosing the most appropriate direction requires planning. Developing an optimal energy reduction plan requires an understanding of the current network| future service offerings| and the technology roadmap| along with numerous additional data to support the analysis. The complexity of the planning process led Bell Labs to develop the Telecom Power Estimator. This paper describes energy usage in telecommunications networks| identifies possible network changes to reduce energy usage| evaluates the potential of alternative (solar and wind) energy use in telecommunications| and discusses the business case (including government incentives) for implementing environmental impact reductions all in support of the eco-sustainability planning process. The Telecom Power Estimator will also be introduced| along with a discussion of how it is used to develop a holistic| cost-effective energy efficiency and eco-susta inability plan for a telecommunications network operator. (C) 2010 Alcatel-Lucent. 10522,2010,4,4,Plant Hsp100/ClpB-like proteins: poorly-analyzed cousins of yeast ClpB machine,ClpB/Hsp100 proteins act as chaperones| mediating disaggregation of denatured proteins. Recent work shows that apart from cytoplasm| these proteins are localized to nuclei| chloroplasts| mitochondria and plasma membrane. While ClpB/Hsp100 genes are essentially stress-induced (mainly heat stress) in vegetative organs of the plant body| expression of ClpB/Hsp100 proteins is noted to be constitutive in plant reproductive structures like pollen grains| developing embryos| seeds etc. With global warming looming large on the horizon| ways to genetically engineer plants against high temperature stress are urgently needed. Yeast mutants unable to synthesize active ClpB/Hsp100 protein show a clear thermosensitive phenotype. ClpB/Hsp100 proteins are implicated in high temperature stress tolerance in plants. We herein highlight the selected important facets of this protein family in plants. 10662,2010,3,2,Plant polymer biodegradation in relation to global carbon management,Natural polymers such as starch| protein| and algae are renewable and sustainable materials. They are used in many industrial applications such as polymeric blends for films| fibers| and injection molded articles. However| biodegradability of these materials in anaerobic sludge digestion is largely unreported. Extensive laboratory results were acquired to elucidate biodegradability and biodegradation kinetics of the selected materials according to ASTM D5210. There was no remarkable difference in biodegradability of wheat| native corn| and modified corn starches. For the protein samples| wheat gluten biodegraded to a great extent than soy protein isolate. For the algal samples| Spirulina biodegraded to a great extent than Nannochloropsis. A first order kinetic equation was used to fit all experimental data. A separate set of (14)C data examined if the carbon source| which is a building-block for all plant polymers| was bio-based (recent carbon) or fossil-based. The former is a part of global carbon cycle| and the latter is believed to cause adverse greenhouse gas effects resulting in global warming. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10559,2010,2,4,Plant species' range shifts in mountainous areas-all uphill from here?,Species from many different habitats are responding to recent climate change. Mountainous areas are of particular interest as they provide pronounced gradients and have experienced above-average temperature increases. Data from the beginning of the 20th century of both the upper and lower range limits of plants of the European Alps were updated a century later and analyzed in order to identify common trends and deviating patterns of shifts at opposing ends of species' ranges. At the upper limit| there was a strong trend towards an increase in species richness per summit| including 33 species that were recorded for the first time on any of the investigated summit areas. The species experienced a consistent upward shift exceeding 100 elevational meters| and 49 out of the 125 investigated species shifted upwards to a present altitude which is higher than any reported occurrence in the region one century ago. The response at the lower range limit was more heterogeneous and suggests species-specific differences in responsiveness and response patterns. With this approach of the combined analysis of upper and lower range limits along elevational gradients| it is possible to identify candidate species that might not keep pace with climate change| and thus| might face an increased risk of extinction with continued global warming. 11230,2010,2,4,Plant-soil relationships in fragments of Mediterranean snow-beds: ecological and conservation implications,We investigated the spatial structures of soil properties and snow-bed vegetation| and their relationships| in southern Italy. We analyzed data on 26 plant species and 10 soil traits from adjacent 1 x 1 m plots in two snow-bed patches. Measures of spatial autocorrelation revealed striking spatial structures for plant cover and soil properties at both sites. Bivariate statistics and Mantel tests highlighted a significant correlation between spatial patterns of plants and soil in the study sites. Canonical correspondence analysis related such relationships to an ecological gradient connecting soil properties and plant assemblages in this unusual ecological context. Among the variables significantly related to plant patterns is the soil organic matter| which is recognized as being sensitive to global warming. Our analyses suggest that soil dynamics due to increasing temperature may promote the replacement of species typical of southern snow-bed ecosystems by more mesophilous plants. 10443,2010,3,4,Plastic waste management in the context of a European recycling society: Comparing results and uncertainties in a life cycle perspective,A number of life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have been undertaken within the last 15 years comparing end-of-life treatment options for post-consumer plastic waste| including techniques such as: mechanical recycling| feedstock recycling| incineration with energy recovery and landfilling. These have attempted to support decisions in the formulation of waste management strategies and policies. In light of the introduction of life cycle thinking into European waste policies| specifically in relation to the waste hierarchy| a literature review of publically available LCA studies evaluating alternative end-of-life treatment options for plastic waste has been conducted. This has been done in order to: establish if a consensus exists as to the environmentally preferable treatment option for plastic waste; identify the methodological considerations and assumptions that have led to these conclusions; and determine the legitimacy of applying the waste hierarchy to the plastic waste stream. The majority of the LCA studies concluded that| when single polymer plastic waste fractions with little organic contamination are recycled and replace virgin plastic at a ratio of close to 1:1| recycling is generally the environmentally preferred treatment option when compared to municipal solid waste incineration. It has been found that assumptions relating to the virgin material substitution ratio and level of organic contamination can have a significant influence upon the results of these studies. Although a limited number of studies addressed feedstock recycling| feedstock recycling and the use of plastic waste as a solid recovered fuel in cement kilns were preferred to municipal solid waste incineration. Landfilling of plastic waste compared to municipal solid waste incineration proved to be the least preferred option for all impact categories except for global warming potential. Due to the uncertainty surrounding some assumptions in the studies| it cannot be said with confidence that the waste hierarchy should be applied to plastic waste management as a general rule. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10702,2010,4,4,Plasticity of larval pre-competency in response to temperature: observations on multiple broadcast spawning coral species,The pre-competency period of coral larvae influences dispersal| and this may be affected under projected climate change conditions. In this laboratory study| we examined the influence of sea water temperature on the duration of pre-competency of larvae of four broadcast spawning coral species. Fungia repanda| Acropora millepora| A. spathulata and Symphyllia recta larvae demonstrated large differences in cohort competency levels when cultured over a 4A degrees C range during the first 4 days post fertilisation. Warmer temperatures reduced pre-competency periods by at least a day for all species| but there were also indications of an upper temperature threshold of less than 32A degrees C for the development of F. repanda| A. millepora and S. recta. These data suggest a general flexibility in ontogenic response to ambient water temperatures. Sea surface temperatures (SST) that differ at spawning time by as little as 2A degrees C| due to inter-annual or latitudinal variation| are likely to alter coral larval dispersal ranges. In some locations| notably the central Indo-Pacific| where major coral spawning activity can coincide with seasonal SST maxima| a future 2A degrees C increase due to climate change may have serious negative effects on coral development and distribution. 608,2010,5,4,Plio-Pleistocene climate change and the onset of aridity in southeastern Australia,Extreme global climate change in the Late Neogene is well known. In Australia| climate changed from wet conditions in the Late Neogene to the arid conditions that characterize much of the continent today. We constrain the nature and timing of the onset of aridity in southeastern Australia by detailed stratigraphic analysis of palaeo megalake Bungunnia. The demise of the megalake has previously been thought to herald the onset of arid climatic regimes and the sedimentary record of this event has become a proxy-type section for understanding Plio-Pleistocene climate in southern Australia. Our investigations of this sedimentary record reveal regionally extensive and correlatable aeolo-lacustrine quartz silts that represent a major and previously unrecognised step in the aridification of the continent| prior to the demise of the megalake. The age of the aeolo-lacustrine silts is constrained to be around 1.4 Ma to 1.5 Ma| just prior to the middle Pleistocene transition. The silts are preserved in a record of maximum lake fill and not long after their deposition the lake began to contract. Our data show that the youngest lake sediment| the Bungunnia Limestone| is diachronous and preserved on at least 5 distinct terraces| ranging over more than 20 m in elevation. The terraces are interpreted to represent downcutting events during arid conditions| while the sediments on each terrace represent deposition during wet periods. The mineralogy of the limestone preserved on these terraces changes from calcite| aragonite and dolomite dominated at higher elevations to gypsum and magnesite dominated on the lower terraces| providing a unique record of the increasing amplitude of arid climatic cycles. These observations suggest that the onset of aridity in southern Australia was progressive and step-wise| beginning significantly earlier than previously suggested. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 610,2010,4,4,Plutonium isotopes as tracers for ocean processes: A review,Since the first nuclear weapons tests in the 1940s| Pulsed inputs of plutonium isotopes have served as excellent tracers for understanding sources| pathways| dynamics and the fare of pollutants and particles in the marine environment. Due to the well-defined spatial and temporal inputs of Pu| the long half-lives of (240)Pu and (239)pu and its unique chemical properties| Pu is a potential tracer for various physical and biogeochemical ocean processes| including circulation| sedimentation and biological productivity| and hence a means of assessing the impacts of global climate change. Due to the Source dependency of the Pu isotopic signature| plutonium isotopes are beginning to be exploited as tools for the evaluation and improvement of regional and global ocean models that will enhance understanding of past and future changes in the oceans. This paper addresses the major sources of Pu and the physical and biogeochemical behaviour in the marine environment. Finally| the use of Pu isotopes as tracers for various oceanic processes (e.g. water mass transport| particle export| and sedimentation) is considered. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 391,2010,5,4,Pollen evidence for an Eocene to Miocene elevation of central southern Tibet predating the rise of the High Himalaya,Quantifying the elevation history of the 2000 km-wide Tibetan Plateau to an average elevation of 5 km is important for understanding key aspects of Cenozoic global climate change| collision tectonics and the evolution of the Asian monsoon| yet quantitative measures of Cenozoic surface height change across Tibet remain few and are sometimes contradictory. Here we report the first exploratory application of a modified Coexistence Approach (CoA) using previously published fossil pollen records to reconstruct quantitatively the Cenozoic minimum palaeoaltitudes of Gangdise-Nyainqentanglha Area of the Tibetan Plateau. GCM simulations were used to adjust Eocene and Miocene raw CoA values for secular climate change and changes in palaeolatitude. This modelled correction increased the CoA-derived altitudes by 895 +/- 96 m to give a minimum overall Eocene altitude of 3295-3495 m. The Miocene correction factor of 481 +/- 25 m gave an overall minimum altitude estimate of 3000-3150 m. For the Holocene CoA returns four equally likely elevations of 4800-4950 m| 3800-3900 m| 3000-3100 m and 2900-3000 m. The first of these is indistinguishable from the present day regional average while the others suggest significant upslope pollen transport. Both the Eocene and Miocene palynologically-derived height estimates are consistent with suggestions of significant core plateau elevation by the Eocene| but are likely to underestimate the true palaeoelevation due to pre-Himalayan upslope pollen transport. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11486,2010,2,4,Population genetics of south European Atlantic salmon under global change,Populations at the edge of species distributions are especially vulnerable to climate change. Genetic changes as well as modification of their population structure are expected as reactions to global warming. Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) inhabiting south France has been chosen as a model for studying the effect of global warming in marginal populations during the last 15 years. Increased gene flow between neighboring populations and dichotomy of maturation age between sexes have been identified as two main population changes significantly associated with high values of the North Atlantic Oscillation index| a global climate indicator. Although occurrence of isolated populations in each river (or even tributary) is a paradigm for this species| at least in northern areas| increased gene flow between rivers is forecasted as long as climate warming increases| favoring metapopulations at regional level. 548,2010,2,4,Population responses within a landscape matrix: a macrophysiological approach to understanding climate change impacts,Global environmental change (GEC) is a significant concern. However| forecasting the outcomes of this change for species and ecosystems remains a major challenge. In particular| predicting specific changes in systems where initial conditions| instabilities| and model errors have large impacts on the outcome is problematic. Indeed| predictive community ecology has been deemed unworthy of pursuit or an unreachable goal. However| new developments in large-scale biology provide ways of thinking that might substantially improve forecasts of local and regional impacts of climate change. Most notably| these are the explicit recognition of the regional and landscape contexts within which populations reside| the matrix approach that can be used to investigate the consequences of population variation across space and within assemblages| and the development of macrophysiology| which explicitly seeks to understand the ecological implications of physiological variation across large spatial and temporal scales. Here we explore how a combination of these approaches might promote further understanding and forecasting of the effects of global climate change and perhaps other GEC drivers on biodiversity. We focus on the population level| examining the ways in which environmental variation might be translated through performance and its plasticity to variation in demography. 11304,2010,2,3,Population trends of European common birds are predicted by characteristics of their climatic niche,Temperate species are projected to experience the greatest temperature increases across a range of modelled climate change scenarios| and climate warming has been linked to geographical range and population changes of individual species at such latitudes. However| beyond the multiple modelling approaches| we lack empirical evidence of contemporary climate change impacts on populations in broad taxonomic groups and at continental scales. Identifying reliable predictors of species resilience or susceptibility to climate warming is of critical importance in assessing potential risks to species| ecosystems and ecosystem services. Here we analysed long-term trends of 110 common breeding birds across Europe (20 countries)| to identify climate niche characteristics| adjusted to other environmental and life history traits| that predict large-scale population changes accounting for phylogenetic relatedness among species. Beyond the now well-documented decline of farmland specialists| we found that species with the lowest thermal maxima (as the mean spring and summer temperature of the hottest part of the breeding distribution in Europe) showed the sharpest declines between 1980 and 2005. Thermal maximum predicted the recent trends independently of other potential predictors. This study emphasizes the need to account for both land-use and climate changes to assess the fate of species. Moreover| we highlight that thermal maximum appears as a reliable and simple predictor of the long-term trends of such endothermic species facing climate change. 10885,2010,2,4,Population-specificity of heat stress gene induction in northern and southern eelgrass Zostera marina populations under simulated global warming,Summer heat waves have already resulted in mortality of coastal communities| including ecologically important seagrass meadows. Gene expression studies from controlled experiments can provide important insight as to how species/genotypes react to extreme events that will increase under global warming. In a common stress garden| we exposed three populations of eelgrass| Zostera marina| to extreme sea surface temperatures| simulating the 2003-European heat wave. Populations came from locations widely differing in their thermal regime| two northern European locations [Ebeltoft (Kattegat)| Doverodde (Limfjord| Baltic Sea)]| and one southern population from Gabicce Mare (Adriatic Sea)| allowing to test for population specificity in the response to a realistic heat stress event. Eelgrass survival and growth as well as the expression of 12 stress associated candidate genes were assessed during and after the heat wave. Contrary to expectations| all populations suffered equally from 3 weeks of heat stress in terms of shoot loss. In contrast| populations markedly differed in multivariate measures of gene expression. While the gene expression profiles converged to pre-stress values directly after the heat wave| stress correlated genes were upregulated again 4 weeks later| in line with the observed delay in shoot loss. Target genes had to be selected based on functional knowledge in terrestrial plants| nevertheless| 10/12 genes were induced relative to the control treatment at least once during the heat wave in the fully marine plant Z. marina. This study underlines the importance of realistic stress and recovery scenarios in studying the impact of predicted climate change. 10485,2010,3,2,Pore-scale simulation of density-driven convection in fractured porous media during geological CO(2) sequestration,Global warming is attributed to the excessive emission of greenhouse gases| one of whose main components is carbon dioxide (CO(2)). A promising long-term solution for mitigating global warming is geological CO(2) sequestration| which is the capture and storage of enormous amounts of CO(2) in underground reservoirs in order to reduce CO(2) build up in the atmosphere. In this study| a pore-scale lattice Boltzmann method was used to simulate density-driven convection in a porous medium with a fracture| to study geological CO(2) sequestration in deep saline aquifers. The CO(2)-brine interface was located at the top of the domain. Both fracture width and body force were varied to generate different Ra numbers in order to investigate the effect of Ra on the convection. All simulated data can be fitted by the same trend| implying that the characteristic length of the system was dominated by the fracture width. When Ra was high enough| increasing Ra did not reduce the critical time for the onset of instability apparently. Also| it did not increase the maximum peak vertical velocity noticeably. Therefore| there existed asymptotic values for the critical time and maximum peak vertical velocity. With high Ra numbers| the high-frequency oscillation of turbulence greatly enhanced the dissolution of CO(2) into brine. After the onset of convective instability| the brine with a high CO(2) concentration intruded into the underlying unaffected brine| which increased the interfacial area between the CO(2)-rich brine and unaffected brine| and consequently favored the migration of CO(2) into the fracture and porous medium. This study is the first pore-scale one investigating density-driven convection during geological CO(2) sequestration in deep saline aquifers| whereas most existing research is focused on the field scale and the dissolved CO(2) concentration at the top boundary is usually assumed to be saturated. 11141,2010,2,3,Post-larval development of two intertidal barnacles at elevated CO(2) and temperature,Ocean acidification and global warming are occurring concomitantly| yet few studies have investigated how organisms will respond to increases in both temperature and CO(2). Intertidal microcosms were used to examine growth| shell mineralogy and survival of two intertidal barnacle post-larvae| Semibalanus balanoides and Elminius modestus| at two temperatures (14 and 19A degrees C) and two CO(2) concentrations (380 and 1|000 ppm)| fed with a mixed diatom-flagellate diet at 15|000 cells ml(-1) with flow rate of 10 ml(-1) min(-1). Control growth rates| using operculum diameter| were 14 +/- A 8 mu m day(-1) and 6 +/- A 2 mu m day(-1) for S. balanoides and E. modestus| respectively. Subtle| but significant decreases in E. modestus growth rate were observed in high CO(2) but there were no impacts on shell calcium content and survival by either elevated temperature or CO(2). S. balanoides exhibited no clear alterations in growth rate but did show a large reduction in shell calcium content and survival under elevated temperature and CO(2). These results suggest that a decrease by 0.4 pH((NBS)) units alone would not be sufficient to directly impact the survival of barnacles during the first month post-settlement. However| in conjunction with a 4-5A degrees C increase in temperature| it appears that significant changes to the biology of these organisms will ensue. 11216,2010,3,3,POSTHARVEST NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONS FROM A SUBTROPICAL OXISOL AS INFLUENCED BY SUMMER CROP RESIDUES AND THEIR MANAGEMENT,Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) is the most important non-CO(2) greenhouse gas and soil management systems should be evaluated for their N(2)O mitigation potential. This research evaluated a long-term (22 years) experiment testing the effect of soil management systems on N(2)O emissions in the postharvest period (autumn) from a subtropical Rhodic Hapludox at the research center FUNDACEP| in Cruz Alta| state of Rio Grande do Sul. Three treatments were evaluated| one under conventional tillage with soybean residues (CTsoybean) and two under no-tillage with soybean (NTsoybean) and maize residues (NTmaize). N(2)O emissions were measured eight times within 24 days (May 2007) using closed static chambers. Gas flows were obtained based on the relations between gas concentrations in the chamber at regular intervals (0| 15| 30|45 min) analyzed by gas chromatography. After soybean harvest| accumulated N(2)O emissions in the period were approximately three times higher in the untilled soil (164 mg m(-2) N) than under CT (51 mg m(-2) N)| with a short-lived N(2)O peak of 670 mg m(-2) h(-1) N. In contrast| soil N(2)O emissions in NT were lower after maize than after soybean| with a N(2)O peak of 127 g m(-2) h(-1) N. The multivariate analysis of N(2)O fluxes and soil variables| which were determined simultaneously with air sampling| demonstrated that the main driving variables of soil N(2)O emissions were soil microbial activity| temperature| water-filled pore space| and NO(3)(-) content. To replace soybean monoculture| crop rotation including maize must be considered as a strategy to decrease soil N(2)O emissions from NT soils in Southern Brazil in a Autumn. 11117,2010,2,3,Potato tuber simulated yield in climate change scenarios,The objective of this study was to simulate potato (Solanum tuberosum) tuber yield in different climate change scenarios of increased carbon dioxide concentration [CO(2)] and air temperature| considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures. Spitters model was used to simulate Asterix cultivar tuber yield considering two growing seasons (spring and fall) recommended for Santa Maria| state of Rio Grande do Sul| Brazil. In each growing season| five planting dates were evaluated in climate scenarios of a hundred years with no increase in [CO(2)] and temperature (current scenario)| and in scenarios with doubling [CO(2)] and temperature increases of 0| 1| 2| 3| 4| 5 and 6 degrees C. A symmetric increase of 4 degrees C and an asymmetric increase of 5 degrees C in air temperature offset the yield beneficial effect of increasing [CO(2)] during spring| whereas increase in air temperature does not affect potato tuber yield during fall. Anticipating planting date in spring and delaying it in fall decrease the negative impact of the increasing air temperature on potato tuber yield. 10889,2010,2,4,Potential consequences of climate warming for tropical plant species in high mountains of southern Ethiopia,Aim Species in the tropics respond to global warming by altitudinal distribution shifts. Consequences for biodiversity may be severe| resulting in lowland attrition| range-shift gaps| range contractions and extinction risks. We aim to identify plant groups (growth forms| families| endemic status) with higher than average risks. Location South Ethiopian highlands. Methods Based on observational data from mainly unexplored and remote mountain regions| we applied a published model to project the consequences of an upward shift of thermal site conditions on the altitudinal distribution of 475 plant species. Annual average temperature increases of up to 5 degrees C were evaluated. Differences between groups of species were analysed by a permutation procedure and Generalized Linear Models. Results Because of a limited regional species pool| even mild warming is projected to create strong potential risks concerning lowland attrition| i.e. the net loss of species richness because of upward range shifts in the absence of new species arriving. Likewise| many species are expected to face range-shift gaps| i.e. the absence of an overlap between future and current altitudinal ranges already under mild warming scenarios. Altitudinal contractions and mountain-top extinctions will potentially become important when warming exceeds 3.5 degrees C. Mean area per species is projected to decline by 55% for the A2 emissions scenario (+4.2 degrees C until 2100) because of the physical shape of the mountains. Higher than average vulnerability is expected for endemic species as well as for herbs and ferns. Plant families that are especially threatened are identified. Main conclusions Lowland biotic attrition and range-shift gaps as predicted by a simple model driven by shifts of isotherms will result in novel challenges for preserving mountain biodiversity in the inner tropics. Whereas contractions of occupied area are expected to threaten endemic and already endangered species in particular| we suggest that conservation priorities can be identified based on simple prognostic models even without precise regional warming scenarios. 11261,2010,2,4,Potential effects of climate change on insect herbivores in European forests-General aspects and the pine processionary moth as specific example,The nature of "climate change" will differ with geographical regions and its final impact on ecosystems vary with the extent of temperature increase| changes in irradiance and levels of UVB| amount and patterns of precipitation and humidity| and alterations in the incidence and nature of abiotic disturbances. Despite many uncertainties| there is consensus in the fact that global warming already has and will have impact on the temporal and spatial dynamics of insect herbivores. Ectothermic organisms are affected by the changes in environmental conditions directly in dispersal| reproduction| development and mortality| and indirectly through altered plant nutritional quality| resistance and via community interactions. Ambiguous consequences are to be expected depending on the individual host plant and herbivore species| probably involving altered incidence and intensity of pest outbreaks and changes in distributional ranges. Regions that represent northern or upper limits of occurrence| such as the Alps or the boreal zone| are likely to be affected most by an increase in stability and population density of certain pest species| such as defoliating insects or bark beetles. At the same time| temperature increase and drought will render areas of distribution in southern and continental parts of Europe less suitable for heat susceptible species| which will probably not only result in northwards shifts| but range contractions. The review is based on chapters of the "Study on impacts of climate change on European forests and options for adaptation" led by the European Forest Institute (Efi) and on results of the EU project "PROMOTH - Global change and pine processionary moth: a new challenge for integrated pest management". Thaumetopoea piryocampa serves as illustrative example for insect herbivores whose latitudinal and altitudinal distribution is mainly controlled by temperature and already modified by global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11158,2010,2,4,Potential impact of ocean ecosystem changes due to global warming on marine organic carbon aerosols,Production of organic carbon (OC) aerosols by biological activity in the ocean is hypothesized to influence climate change. We employ model sensitivity studies to assess the effects of ocean ecosystem changes on the marine OC fluxes by using an integrated Earth system model. Our modeled estimate of global marine primary OC emission (7 Tg OC yr(-1)) is comparable with that calculated from sensitivity simulation which uses chlorophyll concentration constrained by the satellite observations. The model significantly underestimates OC concentration in summer over the remote ocean without the ocean source| but better agreement could be achieved by adding the marine source. We apply simulated perturbations in chlorophyll concentration and the sea-ice extent by previous model run for the IPCC AR4 to the OC source function only. Our model results suggest an insignificant change in the global mean primary OC flux from the ocean to the atmosphere but with considerably large spatial variability due to the changes in chlorophyll concentration projected by the climate warming simulation. The major features of the geographical distribution are increases over the Arctic Ocean| which are associated with the chlorophyll concentration and the sea-ice extent changes primarily driven by the enhanced light efficiency for photosynthesis in the sea-ice free ocean. In climate chemistry and aerosol models that ignore this process| the future (late 21st century) surface OC concentration would be underestimated by 40-200 ng m(-3) in September over the Arctic Ocean (70-90 degrees N). 568,2010,4,3,Potential impact of vegetation feedback on European heat waves in a 2 x CO (2) climate,Inclusion of the effects of vegetation feedback in a global climate change simulation suggests that the vegetation-climate feedback works to alleviate partially the summer surface warming and the associated heat waves over Europe induced by the increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. The projected warming of 4A degrees C over most of Europe with static vegetation has been reduced by 1A degrees C as the dynamic vegetation feedback effects are included.. Examination of the simulated surface energy fluxes suggests that additional greening in the presence of vegetation feedback effects enhances evapotranspiration and precipitation| thereby limiting the warming| particularly in the daily maximum temperature. The greening also tends to reduce the frequency and duration of heat waves. Results in this study strongly suggest that the inclusion of vegetation feedback within climate models is a crucial factor for improving the projection of warm season temperatures and heat waves over Europe. 10590,2010,2,4,Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Sphagnum Bogs of the Southern Appalachian Mountains,Sphagnum bogs in the southern Appalachian Mountains of eastern North America are rare and diverse ecosystems the unique climate range they occupy allows for a mixture of northern and southern species to thrive creating isolated biodiversity hotspots Research on northern bogs in Europe and North America has found that climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition can shift species composition of bog communities and release carbon however research on southern bogs has not begun to answer questions about their fate We reviewed research conducted in northern bogs and applied this information to southern Appalachian bogs to explore the potential impacts that climate change may have on southern Sphagnum bogs The projected increase in evapotranspiration coupled with nitrogen deposition may lead to the drying up of southern bogs causing (1) increased decomposition rates which can lead to the system becoming a carbon source rather than a sink and (2) local extinction of many bog species allowing alternative ecosystems to replace the bogs Because of these threats we suggest a call to action for scientists and managers to begin investigating the specific Impacts that climate change will have on bogs in the southeastern United States so we may better protect and conserve these unique and diverse habitats 10613,2010,2,4,Potential implications of global warming and barrier island degradation on future hurricane inundation| property damages| and population impacted,Hurricane flooding is a leading natural threat to coastal communities Recent evidence of sea level rise coupled with potential future global warming indicate that sea level rise will accelerate and hurricanes may intensify over the coming decades In regions fronted by barrier islands the protective capacity of these islands may diminish as they are degraded by rising sea level Here we present a hydrodynamic and geospatial analysis of the relative role of barrier island degradation on potential future hurricane flooding For the City of Corpus Christi Texas USA hurricane flooding is projected to rise between 20% and 70% by the 2030s resulting in an increase in property damages and impacted population These findings indicate that adaptive management strategies should be developed and adopted for mitigating loss of natural barrier islands when these Islands act as protective features for populated bayside communities Finally this study illustrates a method for applying models to forecast future storm protection benefits of barrier island restoration projects (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved 11134,2010,2,4,Potential Remobilization of Belowground Permafrost Carbon under Future Global Warming,Research on permafrost carbon has dramatically increased in the past few years. A new estimate of 1672 Pg C of belowground organic carbon in the northern circumpolar permafrost region more than doubles the previous value and highlights the potential role of permafrost carbon in the Earth System. Uncertainties in this new estimate remain due to relatively few available pedon data for certain geographic sectors and the deeper cryoturbated soil horizons| and the large polygon size in the soil maps used for upscaling. The large permafrost carbon pool is not equally distributed across the landscape: peat deposits| cryoturbated soils and the loess-like deposits of the yedoma complex contain disproportionately large amounts of soil organic matter| often exhibiting a low degree of decomposition. Recent findings in Alaska and northern Sweden provide strong evidence that the deeper soil carbon in permafrost terrain is starting to be released| supporting previous reports from Siberia. The permafrost carbon pool is not yet fully integrated in climate and ecosystem models and an important objective should be to define typical pedons appropriate for model setups. The thawing permafrost carbon feedback needs to be included in model projections of future climate change. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 10788,2010,4,4,POTENTIAL ROLE OF SEA SPRAY GENERATION IN THE ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT OF PERFLUOROCARBOXYLIC ACIDS,The observed environmental concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and its conjugate base (PFO) in remote regions such as the Arctic have been primarily ascribed to the atmospheric transport and degradation of fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs) and to direct PFO transport in ocean currents. These mechanisms are each capable of only partially explaining observations. Transport within marine aerosols has been proposed and may explain transport over short distances but will contribute little over longer distances. However| PFO(A) has been shown to have a very short half-life in aqueous aerosols and thus sea spray was proposed as a mechanism for the generation of PFOA in the gas phase from PFO in a water body. Using the observed PFO concentrations in oceans of the Northern Hemisphere and estimated spray generation rates| this mechanism is shown to have the potential for contributing large amounts of PFOA to the atmosphere and may therefore contribute significantly to the concentrations observed in remote locations. Specifically| the rate of PFOA release into the gas phase from oceans in the Northern Hemisphere is calculated to be potentially comparable to global stack emissions to the atmosphere. The subsequent potential for atmospheric degradation of PFOA and its global warming potential are considered. Observed isomeric ratios and predicted atmospheric concentrations due to FTOH degradation are used to elucidate the likely relative importance of transport pathways. It is concluded that gas phase PFOA released from oceans may help to explain observed concentrations in remote regions. The model calculations performed in the present study strongly suggest that oceanic aerosol and gas phase field monitoring is of vital importance to obtain a complete understanding of the global dissemination of PFCAs. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2010;29:1703-1708. (C) 2010 SETAC 10895,2010,2,4,Potential shift in tree species composition after interaction of fire and drought in the Central Alps,The future trajectory of forest ecosystems under climate change is heavily debated. Previous studies on the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems have focused mainly on direct effects of altered climatic conditions| whereas interactions with disturbance events have been largely neglected. The aim of this study is to explore interactions of drought with fire disturbance and to assess their effects on tree species shifts in the European Central Alps. Tree recruitment after a stand replacing wildfire in the Rhone valley| Switzerland| was measured along an altitudinal temperature moisture gradient. Recruitment was more successful in pioneer species (Betula pendula| Populus tremula and Salix appendiculata) than in pre-fire stand forming (PFSF) species (Larix decidua| Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris). Seedling and sapling density was not related to fire intensity| but it correlated with the distance to the forest edge in PFSF species. The window of opportunity for seedling establishment was short (1-2 years)| and moisture deficit was the main limiting factor for tree recruitment at lower altitudes. We suggest that prolonged drought periods| as projected under continued global warming| will further aggravate tree recruitment success after fire disturbance at low altitudes of the Central Alps and may eventually lead to a shift from PFSF species to either more drought-tolerant species or to forest-free vegetation. 547,2010,3,3,Power Generation Expansion Planning Model Towards Low-Carbon Economy and Its Application in China,Climate change poses a huge threat to human welfare. Hence| developing a low-carbon economy has become a prevailing and inevitable trend. Decarbonization of power generation| especially converting the current power mix into a low-carbon structure| will be a critical option for CO emission mitigation. In this paper| an integrated power generation expansion (PGE) planning model towards low-carbon economy is proposed| which properly integrates and formulates the impacts of various low-carbon factors on PGE models. In order to adapt to the characteristics of PGE models based on low-carbon scenario| a compromised modeling approach is presented| which reasonably decreases complexities of the model| while properly keeping the significant elements and maintaining moderate precision degree. In order to illustrate the proposed model and approach| a numerical case is studied based on the background of China's power sector| making decisions on the optimal PGE plans and revealing the prospects and potentials for CO emission reduction. 425,2010,3,3,Power plant post-combustion carbon dioxide capture: An opportunity for membranes,Carbon dioxide capture from power plant flue gas and subsequent sequestration is expected to play a key role in mitigating global climate change. Conventional amine technologies being considered for separating CO(2) from flue gas are costly| energy intensive| and if implemented| would result in large increases in the cost of producing electricity. Membranes offer potential as an energy-efficient| low-cost CO(2) capture option. Recently| working with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)| we have developed membranes with CO(2) permeances of greater than 1000 gpu and a CO(2)/N(2) selectivity of 50 at 30 degrees C. This permeance is ten times higher than commercial CO(2) membranes and the selectivity is among the highest reported for non-facilitated transport materials. These membranes| in combination with a novel process design that uses incoming combustion air as a sweep gas to generate driving force| could meet DOE CO(2) capture cost targets. Under these conditions| improving membrane permeance is more important than increasing selectivity to further reduce the cost of CO(2) capture from flue gas. Membrane cost and reliability issues will be key to the eventual competitiveness of this technology for flue gas treatment. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 682,2010,2,3,Practicing Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change: Lessons from Integrated Coastal Management,The challenges faced in adapting to climate change present themselves with increasing urgency. Nowhere will these challenges be greater than in the developing world where often weak institutions and governance systems struggle to deal with mounting pressures from population growth| inadequate infrastructure| and diminishing or already depleted natural resources. This article synthesizes the many global climate change and other anthropogenic threats to coastal ecosystems and draws on lessons and good practices from global experience in integrated coastal management (ICM) that can be transferred to coastal adaptation to these challenges. The case is made that the process and best practices of ICM are not radically changed by applying a climate lens. For the most part| the good practices of planning and implementation coastal management measures apply equally to climate change as they do to other coastal issues. However| there are some new and important considerations that enter into planning and decision-making with respect to climate change. These considerations include the need for an even greater emphasis on nature-based coastal protection strategies and measures| more pronounced issues of uncertainty in decision-making| the need for a longer planning horizon| and the importance of including in the decision-making equation opportunities to mitigate the sources of climate change with adaptation measures. 432,2010,2,4,Pre-laying climatic cues can time reproduction to optimally match offspring hatching and ice conditions in an Arctic marine bird,Individuals breeding in seasonal environments are under strong selection to time reproduction to match offspring demand and the quality of the post-natal environment. Timing requires both the ability to accurately interpret the appropriate environmental cues| and the flexibility to respond to inter-annual variation in these cues. Determining which cues are linked to reproductive timing| what these cues are predicting and understanding the fitness consequences of variation in timing| is therefore of paramount interest to evolutionary and applied ecologists| especially in the face of global climate change. We investigated inter-annual relationships between climatic variation and the timing of reproduction in Canada's largest breeding population of Arctic common eiders (Somateria mollissima) in East Bay| Nunavut. Warmer spring temperatures predicted both earlier mean annual laying dates and the earlier ice-free conditions required by ducklings for post-natal growth. Warmer springs had higher variation in this temperature cue| and the population laying distribution became increasingly positively-skewed in warmer summers| potentially indicating that more low-quality females had the opportunity to commence laying in warmer years. Females that timed laying to match duckling hatching just prior to fully ice-free conditions obtained the highest duckling survival probability. Inter-annual data on repeated breeding attempts revealed that the individuals examined show a similar degree of laying flexibility in response to climatic variation; however| there was significant individual variation in the absolute timing of laying within an average year. This work sheds light on how reproductive timing is related to and influenced by variation in local climate and provides vital information on how climate-related variation in reproductive timing influence a fitness measure in an Arctic species. Results are especially relevant to future work in polar environments given that global climatic changes are predicted to be most intense at high latitudes. 10670,2010,2,4,Precipitation and temperature are associated with advanced flowering phenology in a semi-arid grassland,Advances in spring blooming of wildflowers have been associated with climate change; however| the majority of long-term community-level studies have been conducted in humid-temperate regions. Less is known about phenological changes in herbaceous| semi-arid plant communities. We recorded first-bloom date of common spring wildflowers in a semi-arid grassland in the Rocky Mountains| USA from 1995 through 2008 and analyzed these data along with mean monthly temperature and precipitation. Advanced flowering predominated; 75% of the 32 species displayed a negative linear regression slope| and this trend was strong for nine species (slope < 1.0|p < 0.10). Only one species showed a strong trend for later flowering. Mean advance for all 32 species was 0.61 days/year and mean advance for the nine species displaying a strong tendency to flower earlier was 1.6 days/year. Species flowering early showed stronger trends toward advanced flowering than later species. Average March temperature and January plus December precipitation| falling mainly as snow| were explanatory variables in the best multiple linear regression model for mean first-flowering date of strongly advanced species. Our results suggest that flowering phenology may be changing faster and precipitation may play a more important role in semi-arid grasslands than in humid-temperate systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 703,2010,2,4,Precipitation magnitude and timing differentially affect species richness and plant density in the sotol grassland of the Chihuahuan Desert,Arid and semi-arid environments are dynamic ecosystems with highly variable precipitation| resulting in diverse plant communities. Changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation due to global climate change may further alter plant community composition in desert regions. In this study| we assessed changes in species richness and plant density at the community| functional group| and species level in response to variation in the magnitude of natural seasonal precipitation and 25% increases in seasonal precipitation [e.g.| supplemental watering in summer| winter| or summer and winter (SW)] over a 5-year period in a sotol grassland in the Chihuahuan Desert. Community species richness was higher with increasing winter precipitation while community plant density increased with greater amounts of winter and summer precipitation| suggesting winter precipitation was important for species recruitment and summer precipitation promoted growth of existing species. Herb and grass density increased with increasing winter and summer precipitation| but only grass density showed a significant response to supplemental watering treatments (SW treatment plots had higher grass density). Shrubs and succulents did not exhibit changes in richness or density in response to natural or supplemental precipitation. In this 5-year study| changes in community species richness and density were driven by responses of herb and grass species that favored more frequent small precipitation events| shorter inter-pulse duration| and higher soil moisture. However| due to the long life spans of the shrub and succulent species within this community| 5 years may be insufficient to accurately evaluate their response to variable timing and magnitude of precipitation in this mid-elevation grassland. 477,2010,4,4,Precision genetics for complex objectives in animal agriculture,Indirect modification of animal genomes by interspecific hybridization| cross-breeding| and selection has produced an enormous spectrum of phenotypic diversity over more than 10|000 yr of animal domestication. Using these established technologies| the farming community has successfully increased the yield and efficiency of production in most agricultural species while utilizing land resources that are often unsuitable for other agricultural purposes. Moving forward| animal well-being and agricultural sustainability are moral and economic priorities of consumers and producers alike. Therefore| these considerations will be included in any strategy designed to meet the challenges produced by global climate change and an expanding world population. Improvements in the efficiency and precision of genetic technologies will enable a timely response to meet the multifaceted food requirements of a rapidly increasing world population. 10787,2010,2,4,Predator-prey systems in streams and rivers,Many predator-prey systems are found in environments with a predominantly unidirectional flow such as streams and rivers. Alterations of natural flow regimes (e. g.| due to human management or global warming) put biological populations at risk. The aim of this paper is to devise a simple method that links flow speeds (currents) with population retention (persistence) and wash-out (extinction). We consider systems of prey and specialist| as well as generalist| predators| for which we distinguish the following flow speed scenarios: (a) coexistence| (b) persistence of prey only or (c) predators only (provided they are generalists)| and (d) extinction of both populations. The method is based on a reaction-advection-diffusion model and traveling wave speed approximations. We show that this approach matches well spread rates observed in numerical simulations. The results from this paper can provide a useful tool in the assessment of instream flow needs| estimating the flow speed necessary for preserving riverine populations. 367,2010,2,3,Predicting changes in soil organic carbon in mediterranean and alpine forests during the Kyoto Protocol commitment periods using the CENTURY model,Six Italian research sites| representative of Mediterranean and mountain forests and equipped with eddy covariance towers| were used in this study to test the performance of the CENTURY 4.5 model in predicting the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes during the commitment periods (CP) of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012; 2013-2017). We show that changes in SOC stocks over short periods of time are difficult to detect| and explore the potential for models to be used for reporting SOC changes for forests that will remain forests| under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol. As the eddy covariance flux sites have been active for 10 yr on average| being initiated over the period between 1996 and 1998| the model was evaluated by comparing the modelled SOC stocks with those directly measured at each site in different years. Since long term series of observed values for soil carbon were not available| the validation of other model outputs such as net primary production (NPP) and soil nitrogen stocks| gives some confidence in long term simulations. Once the model performance was evaluated| two climate change scenarios| A1F1 (world markets-fossil fuel intensive) and B2 (local sustainability)| were considered for prediction of C stock changes during the commitment periods of the Kyoto Protocol. In general| despite the need to consider the uncertainties in the direct measurements| at each site model fit with measured SOC stocks was good| with the simulated values within the standard deviation of the measurements. In this regard| the similarity between the SOC measured in 2008 and that predicted for the two forthcoming commitment periods points out the difficulty of detecting carbon stock changes by direct measurements| given the closeness in time to the present of the commitment periods. In any case| all sites show positive variations that are possibly related to the fertilization effects of increasing CO(2) and to longer growing seasons| since no change in management occurred. Compared with the SOC measured in 2008| at the end of the second commitment period| the modelled SOC variations were smaller than 2% in the Mediterranean forests and comprised between 2% and 7% in the mountain forests. These variations| although small| indicate it might be possible to statistically detect differences after 10 yr in mountain forests with a reasonable number of samples. In conclusion| this work shows that since SOC stock changes are minimal within both CP| models can be effective tools for estimating future changes in SOC amounts| as an alternative to| or in support of| direct measurements when a short period of time is considered. 10999,2010,2,4,Predicting future effects from nutrient abatement and climate change on phosphorus concentrations in Lake Bourget| France,Like many temperate European lakes| Lake Bourget (France) has suffered from eutrophication during the second half of the last century. Due to a remarkable restoration program| the lake has been recovering for the past 25 years after a massive decrease in total phosphorus (TP) loading. TP concentrations have decreased from about 100-120 to 20-25 mu g/L Additional efforts are| however| still required to obtain a perennially sustainable good ecological status and model parameterisation of fluxes can assist in predicting future outcomes| especially in the context of global warming. In this paper| a dynamic model (MeroLakeMab) was developed and tested with the purpose to reconstruct the loading history of Lake Bourget and to predict TP concentrations during scenarios of increased temperature| decreased water runoff and decreased P loading. Simulations suggested that the historical TP loading decrease may have been as extensive as 88%. Decreases in water discharge to Lake Bourget at magnitudes forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would not affect TP concentrations notably| but marked concentration changes could| however| occur if decreases in runoff would have a strong impact on the TP loading. Increasing temperature effects on yearly mean TP concentrations in the water column would be very small compared to effects from changes in the TP loading. Predictions such as these could be instrumental for future successful lake management. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 697,2010,2,4,Predicting population dynamics of the parasitoid Cotesia marginiventris (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) resulting from novel interactions of temperature and selenium,Changes in trophic level interactions due to global climate change and the increasing occurrence of pollution are likely to have consequences for natural enemies. Specifically| information regarding the effects of these factors on insect parasitoids is relatively sparse. We examined the individual and joint effects of temperature and the pollutant selenium on the fitness correlates of the parasitoid wasp Cotesia marginiventris (Cresson) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae)| parasitizing Spodoptera exigua (Hubner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Our specific objective was to determine in a factorial experiment how three temperatures (constant 28.6 degrees C| constant 33 degrees C and a fluctuating temperature between 28.6 and 33 degrees C) and three concentrations of seleno-DL-methionine (0.00| 21.21| and 42.42 mu g/g) affected the parasitoid's fitness and life history. Parasitoids failed to complete development at the constant 33 degrees C| but developed significantly faster at the fluctuating temperature compared to the constant 28.6 degrees C. There were significant declines due to increased temperature| but not selenium| on C. marginiventris survival time| adult body weight| body size| hind tibia length| female life span and number of progeny that survived to adulthood. Mean generation times and the intrinsic rate of increase (r) further show that both of these life table statistics declined under conditions of increased temperatures. We discuss the implications of these results in helping to understand and predict the effectiveness of biological control programs and pest management strategies as climate changes in the presence of metal and metalloid pollution. 10564,2010,2,4,Predicting regime shifts in flow of the Colorado River,The effects of continued global warming on water resources are a concern for water managers and stake holders. In the western United States| where the combined climatic demand and consumptive use of water is equal to or greater than the natural supply of water for some locations| there is growing concern regarding the sustainability of future water supplies. In addition to the adverse effects of warming on water supply| another issue for water managers is accounting for| and managing| the effects of natural climatic variability| particularly persistently dry and wet periods. Analyses of paleo-reconstructions of Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) flow demonstrate that severe sustained droughts| and persistent pluvial periods| are a recurring characteristic of hydroclimate in the Colorado River basin. Shifts between persistently dry and wet regimes (e.g.| decadal to multi-decadal variability (D2M)) have important implications for water supply and water management. In this study paleo-reconstructions of UCRB flow are used to compute the risks of shifts between persistently wet and dry regimes given the length of time in a specific regime. Results indicate that low frequency variability of hydro-climatic conditions and the statistics that describe this low frequency variability can be useful to water managers by providing information about the risk of shifting from one hydrologic regime to another. To manage water resources in the future water managers will have to understand the joint hydrologic effects of natural climate variability and global warming. These joint effects may produce future hydrologic conditions that are unprecedented in both the instrumental and paleoclimatic records. Citation: Gangopadhyay| S.| and G. J. McCabe (2010)| Predicting regime shifts in flow of the Colorado River| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L20706| doi:10.1029/2010GL044513. 11491,2010,2,4,Predicting the effect of climate change on aggregation behaviour in four species of terrestrial isopods,Climate warming has changed the spatial distributions and temporal behaviours of several taxa. A key question that remains is how behaviours that alter microclimatic conditions might be used to buffer the effects of climate change. In this study| we focus on the aggregation behaviour of four species of terrestrial isopods| in which groups of individuals clump together to prevent moisture-loss| and use a laboratory protocol to investigate the effects of changes in relative humidity (RH) and temperature on aggregation. We find that three species aggregate more at lower RH and at higher temperatures| and that species that are better adapted to reducing moisture loss aggregate less than do species with fewer such adaptations. These results suggest that behavioural variation can buffer the effects of changes in microclimate. We finish by suggesting that it is critical to determine how such behavioural shifts will affect isopod densities and competitive hierarchies. 11195,2010,2,4,Predicting the effects of climate change on natural enemies of agricultural pests,Climate change can have diverse effects on natural enemies of pest species. Here we review these effects and their likely impacts on pest control. The fitness of natural enemies can be altered in response to changes in herbivore quality and size induced by temperature and CO(2) effects on plants. The susceptibility of herbivores to predation and parasitism could be decreased through the production of additional plant foliage or altered timing of herbivore life cycles in response to plant phenological changes. The effectiveness of natural enemies in controlling pests will decrease if pest distributions shift into regions outside the distribution of their natural enemies| although a new community of enemies might then provide some level of control. As well as being affected by climate through host plants and associated herbivores| the abundance and activity of natural enemies will be altered through adaptive management strategies adopted by farmers to cope with climate change. These strategies may lead to a mismatch between pests and enemies in space and time| decreasing their effectiveness for biocontrol. Because of the diverse and often indirect effects of climate change on natural enemies| predictions will be difficult unless there is a good understanding of the way environmental effects impact on tritrophic interactions. In addition| evolutionary changes in both hosts and natural enemies might have unexpected consequences on levels of biocontrol exerted by enemies. We consider interactions between the pest light brown apple moth and its natural enemies to illustrate the type of data that needs to be collected to make useful predictions. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 11543,2010,2,4,Predicting the Impact of Global Warming on Soil Water Resources in Marginal Forests of the Middle Volga Region,The response of local forest ecosystems to changes in summer soil moisture content in the context of possible climate changes. A procedure for local hydrological forecasting is presented. Calculations based on prediction climate models GISS and HadCM3 for forest ecosystems on zonal ecotones between forest and steppe showed a progressive development in the XXI century of a thermoarid trend with pronounced soil drying during the vegetation period| which should result in decay of broad-leaved and mixed forests and their replacement by small-leaved-pine and oak-grove forest-steppe. 10701,2010,2,3,Predicting the impact of global warming on the timing of spring flowering,Many plants flower in response to a change in the environment. Since one of the main goals for a plant is to complete a growth cycle in order to produce seed| flowering is a key stage in plant development. We have developed a statistical procedure for explaining the variations in flowering date| which is based on a well-accepted phenological model (growing degree-days). Our approach has several advantages over previous methods based around multiple-regression procedures| the main one being that we have a direct interpretation in terms of just two meaningful phenological parameters (thermal requirement and thermal threshold) per species. The model is used to classify 79 flowering plants. By using a statistical approach based on empirical p-values| we can decide which species can be regarded as sensitive to temperature. Our model| while a simplification of the real system| is easy to work with and enables the consequences of future temperature change to be predicted. By adopting a simple (linear)| but realistic| approximation to the rise in temperature each spring| we derive a simple expression for the change in expected flowering dates under global warming. We use the expression to examine changes under three different climate change scenarios involving increasing warmth| oceanicity and continentality. Variations in flowering from species to species and year to year are explained in a straightforward manner by variations in our two parameters and the linear temperature functions| respectively. We find that the sensitivity of spring flowering dates to temperature is strongly governed by the continentality of the climate. We make predictions that will allow the assumptions used in constructing our model to be validated or repudiated. Our formulae can be used for any global warming scenario of the type we consider| whenever our basic assumptions hold. In particular| we predict the likely change in world-wide spring flowering dates under the likely climatic conditions in the 2080s as predicted under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario A1FI. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 11329,2010,4,4,Prediction of long-term changes in ecosystem functions of a peatland site with the semi-quantitative decision support system PMDSS,For implementation of sustainable land use strategies in Europe tools for evaluating long-term changes of peatland functions are essential. Therefore a semi-quantitative peatland management decision support system for agricultural used peatlands in Europe was developed. It is called Peatland Management Decision Support System (PMDSS). The aim of the tool is to better understand and to forecast long-term processes in peatland ecosystems in order to help scientists| water boards and environmental agencies in decision making about long-term management. PMDSS is based on derived indicators of ecosystem functions of peatlands| which are: harvest of plant products| land use category| mean summer water table (MSWT)| nitrogen discharge| Global Warming Potential (GWP) and conservation value of plants. PMDSS is realized as an easy to use spreadsheet program in Excel. The model is one-dimensional and applicable for a site or field| where the input parameters| particularly land use category| vegetation type and MSWT are relatively homogenous. It is running with annual intervals and for a time span of 100 years (vegetation 50 years). Results are presented as values| text and diagrams. PMDSS is accessible via internet. PMDSS was applied to sites in several European countries. A case study in the Eider Valley peatland is presented| which is typical for Weichselian landscapes of northwest Germany. The site has a deep peat layer and is mainly influenced by groundwater discharge. It was used as a meadow and pasture during the past centuries and is left abandoned since the mid 1990s. Effects of different land use and water management scenarios onto the development of the site are determined. The scenarios are typical for peatland sites in northwest Germany and northwest Europe. Results are plausible as a rough estimate of magnitude and development trend. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 392,2010,2,4,Predictions of Turbidity Due to Enhanced Sediment Resuspension Resulting from Sea-Level Rise on a Fringing Coral Reef: Evidence from Molokai| Hawaii,Accelerating sea level rise associated with global climate change will affect sedimentary processes on coral reefs and other shoreline environments by increasing energy and sediment resuspension On reefs sedimentation is known to increase coral stress and bleaching as particles that settle on coral surfaces interfere with photosynthesis and feeding and turbidity induced by suspended sediment reduces incident light levels Using relationships developed from observations of wave orbital velocity water surface elevation and suspended sediment concentration on a fringing reef flat of Molokai Hawaii predictions of the average daily maximum in suspended sediment concentration increase from similar to 11 mg/l to similar to 20 mg/l with 20 cm sea level rise The duration of time concentrations exceeds 10 mg/l increases from 9% to 37% An evaluation of the reduction of wave energy flux through breaking and frictional dissipation across the reef flat shows an increase of similar to 80% relative to the present will potentially reach the shoreline as sea level increases by 20 cm Where the shoreline exists on low| flat terrain the increased energy could cause significant erosion of the shoreline Considering the sediment budget the sediment flux is predicted to increase and removal of fine grained sediment may be expedited on some fringing reefs| and sediment in storage on the inner reef could ultimately be reduced However increased shoreline erosion may add sediment and offset removal from the reef flat The shifts in sediment availability and transport that will occur as result of a modest increase in sea level have wide application to fringing coral reefs elsewhere as well as other shoreline environments 11030,2010,3,4,Predictive tool for an accurate estimation of carbon dioxide transport properties,In the present work| simple-to-use predictive tool| which is simpler than current available models and involves a fewer number of parameters| requiring less complicated and shorter computations| is formulated to arrive at an appropriate estimation of the transport properties (namely viscosity and thermal conductivity) of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) as a function of pressure and temperature. The correlation developed accurately works for temperatures between 260 and 450 K as well as pressures between 10 and 70 MPa which is the range of pressure that is widely considered in CO(2) sequestration. Results have been compared with the reported data and excellent agreement has been obtained between the predicted results and observed values. The average absolute deviations were found to be 1.1 and 1.3% for viscosity and thermal conductivity of carbon dioxide respectively. Proposed simple predictive tool and can be of immense practical value for the engineers to have a quick check on the transport properties (namely viscosity and thermal conductivity) of carbon dioxide at various temperatures and pressures without performing any experimental measurements. In particular| personnel dealing with regulatory bodies of greenhouse gas control and process industries would find the proposed approach to be user friendly involving transparent calculations with no complex expressions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10836,2010,2,3,Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario,An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices| movements| and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2 degrees x 2 degrees geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources| and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries| both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO(2)| from historical records over 1860-2000| and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO(2) concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for bigeye tuna spawning. The adult feeding habitat also improved in the ETP due to the increase of dissolved oxygen concentration in the sub-surface allowing adults to access deeper forage. Conversely| in the Western Central Pacific the temperature becomes too warm for bigeye tuna spawning. The decrease in spawning is compensated by an increase of larvae biomass in subtropical regions. However| natural mortality of older stages increased due to lower habitat values (too warm surface temperatures| decreasing oxygen concentration in the sub-surface and less food). This increased mortality and the displacement of surviving fish to the eastern region led to stable then declining adult biomass at the end of the century. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 521,2010,2,4,Preliminary global assessment of terrestrial biodiversity consequences of sea-level rise mediated by climate change,Considerable attention has focused on the climatic effects of global climate change on biodiversity| but few analyses and no broad assessments have evaluated effects of sea-level rise on biodiversity. Taking advantage of new maps of marine intrusion under scenarios of 1 and 6 m sea-level rise| we calculated areal losses for all terrestrial ecoregions globally| with areal losses for particular ecoregions ranging from nil to complete. Marine intrusion is a global phenomenon| but its effects are most prominent in Southeast Asia and nearby islands| eastern North America| northeastern South America| and western Alaska. Making assumptions regarding faunal responses to reduced distributional areas of species endemic to ecoregions| we estimated likely numbers of extinctions caused by sea-level rise| and found that marine-intrusion-caused extinctions of narrow endemics are likely to be most prominent in northeastern South America| although anticipated extinctions in smaller numbers are scattered worldwide. This assessment serves as a complement to recent estimates of losses owing to changing climatic conditions| considering a dimension of biodiversity consequences of climate change that has not previously been taken into account. 10660,2010,4,4,Premonsoon aerosol characterization and radiative effects over the Indo-Gangetic Plains: Implications for regional climate warming,The Himalayas have a profound effect on the South Asian climate and the regional hydrological cycle| as it forms a barrier for the strong monsoon winds and serves as an elevated heat source| thus controlling the onset and distribution of precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon. Recent studies have suggested that radiative heating by absorbing aerosols| such as dust and black carbon over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and slopes of the Himalayas| may significantly accelerate the seasonal warming of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas-Tibetan Plateau (HKHT) and influence the subsequent evolution of the summer monsoon. This paper presents a detailed characterization of aerosols over the IGP and their radiative effects during the premonsoon season (April-May-June) when dust transport constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading| using ground radiometric and spaceborne observations. During the dust-laden period| there is a strong response of surface shortwave flux to aerosol absorption indicated by the diurnally averaged forcing efficiency of -70 Wm(-2) per unit optical depth. The simulated aerosol single-scattering albedo| constrained by surface flux and aerosol measurements| is estimated to be 0.89 +/- 0.01 (at similar to 550 nm) with diurnal mean surface and top-of-atmosphere forcing values ranging from -11 to -79.8 Wm(-2) and + 1.4 to + 12 Wm(-2)| respectively| for the premonsoon period. The model-simulated solar heating rate profile peaks in the lower troposphere with enhanced heating penetrating into the middle troposphere (5-6 km)| caused by vertically extended aerosols over the IGP with peak altitude of similar to 5 km as indicated by spaceborne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization observations. On a long-term climate scale| our analysis| on the basis of microwave satellite measurements of tropospheric temperatures from 1979 to 2007| indicates accelerated annual mean warming rates found over the Himalayan-Hindu Kush region (0.21 degrees C/decade +/- 0.08 degrees C/decade) and underscores the potential role of enhanced aerosol solar absorption in the maximum warming localized over the western Himalayas (0.26 degrees C/decade +/- 0.09 degrees C/decade) that significantly exceed the entire HKHT and global warming rates. We believe the accelerated warming rates reported here are critical to both the South Asian summer monsoon and hydro-glaciological resource variability in the Himalayan-Hindu Kush snowpack and therefore to the densely populated downstream regions. 10423,2010,2,4,Primary production and climatic variability in the European sector of the Arctic Ocean prior to 2007: preliminary results,The primary production in the Greenland Sea| Fram Strait| Barents Sea| Kara Sea and adjacent Polar Ocean was investigated through the physically-biologically coupled| nested 3D SINMOD model with 4 km grid size for the years 1995-2007. The model had atmospheric forcing from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data. Three basic gross primary production (GPP) domains were distinguished: (i) an extensive domain dominated by Atlantic Water| (ii) an elongated domain roughly corresponding to the seasonal ice zone (SIZ) and (iii) a compact perennial ice zone (> 100| between 100 and 30 and < 30 g C m(-2) year(-1)| respectively). The interannual coefficient of variation for GPP in domain (i) was < 0.1| and increased northwards towards > 0.6 in the northwesternmost and northeasternmost fringe of the SIZ. The primary production in the northern sector of the European Arctic Corridor (EAC) region prior to 2007 was characterised by limited interannual variability| on average 75.2 +/- A 10% and 24.0 +/- A 16% g C m(-2) year(-1) for the EAC region at 74-80 and > 80A degrees N| respectively. The main primary production anomalies were found early in the productive season and in sections of the SIZ| generally in regions with low GPP. There was no significant trend of increasing GPP in the 1995-2007 time interval. 11450,2010,2,4,Probabilistic Approach of Coastal Defense Against Typhoon Attacks for Nuclear Power Plant,With the global warming and sea level rising| it is widely recognized that there is an increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequency and intensity. The defenses code against typhoon attacks for nuclear power plant should be calibrated because of the increasing threat of typhoon disaster and severe consequences. This paper discusses the probabilistic approach of definitions about "probable maximum typhoon" and "probable maximum storm surge" in nuclear safety regulations of China and has made some design code calibrations by use of a newly proposed Double Layer Nested Multi-objective Probability Model (DLNMPM). 11049,2010,2,3,Probing the Fast and Slow Components of Global Warming by Returning Abruptly to Preindustrial Forcing,The fast and slow components of global warming in a comprehensive climate model are isolated by examining the response to an instantaneous return to preindustrial forcing. The response is characterized by an initial fast exponential decay with an e-folding time smaller than 5 yr| leaving behind a remnant that evolves more slowly. The slow component is estimated to be small at present| as measured by the global mean near-surface air temperature| and| in the model examined| grows to 0.4 degrees C by 2100 in the A1B scenario from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)| and then to 1.4 degrees C by 2300 if one holds radiative forcing fixed after 2100. The dominance of the fast component at present is supported by examining the response to an instantaneous doubling of CO(2) and by the excellent fit to the model's ensemble mean twentieth-century evolution with a simple one-box model with no long times scales. 10540,2010,3,4,Process integration| modelling and optimisation for energy saving and pollution reduction,Energy saving| global warming and greenhouse gas emissions have become major technological| societal| and political issues. Being closely related to energy supply| they are of a strategic importance. Various conferences are being organised for providing international venues for closer cooperation among researchers. The series of conferences "Process Integration| Modelling and Optimisation for Energy Saving and Pollution Reduction" (PRES) play a pioneering role in contributing to the solution of the related problems through presenting new methodologies and initiating cooperation among participants that often result in international projects. The PRES conferences have been dedicated both to the theoretical and to the practical aspects of energy saving and pollution reduction. The PRES series| established thirteen years ago| was originally dedicated to energy integration and improving thermal efficiency. Following the new challenges and priorities| the scope of the conferences has been extended to include all energy and pollution prevention related issues. This contribution focuses on the period covered by PRES| reviewing at least some major presentations contributing to the development of process integration and optimisation tools for energy saving and pollution reduction. The development of the mathematical models has been covered as well| since it is closely related to the area. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 10892,2010,3,4,Production and energetic utilization of wood from short rotation coppice-a life cycle assessment,Ambitious targets for the use of renewable energy have recently been set in the European Union. To reach these targets| a large share of future energy generation will be based on the use of woody biomass. Therefore| there is an increasing interest in the cultivation of fast-growing tree species on agricultural land outside forests. Intensive crop production is always considered to harm the environment. The study explores the environmental burdens of the cultivation of fast-growing tree species on agricultural land and their subsequent energetic conversion in comparison to the fossil reference energy system. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology according to the ISO 14040 and 14044 is used. Input data were partly collected within the German joint research project AGROWOOD. Two utilization paths of short rotation poplar chips are analyzed: heat and power generation in a cogeneration plant and the production of Fischer-Tropsch (FT) diesel. Subsequently| the bioenergy systems are compared with their fossil references. The production and distribution of 1 oven dry tonne (odt) of short-rotation poplar chips require 432 MJ non-renewable energy. This equals an output-input ratio of 43:1| which includes all process steps from field preparation to road transport. Emissions of this energy use amount to a global warming potential of 38.4 kg CO(2) eq odt(-1)| an acidification potential of 0.24 kg SO(2) eq odt(-1)| and a eutrophication potential of 0.04 kg PO(4) eq odt(-1). The greatest reductions of environmental impacts can be achieved by substituting power from lignite with cogenerated power from short-rotation coppice (SRC). Compared with the average German power generation mix GWP and AP of power generation from short rotation poplar chips are lower by 97% and 44%| respectively| while eutrophication potential is about 26% higher. FT diesel made from short-rotation poplar chips has an 88% lower global warming potential and a 93% lower acidification potential than fossil diesel. But| the eutrophication potential of FT diesel is twice as high as of fossil diesel. It was found that even intensively produced wood from SRC can reduce environmental burdens if it is used for biofuel instead of fossil fuel. The utilization of the same amount of short-rotation poplar chips for heat and power production causes fewer environmental impacts than its use for FT diesel. 11131,2010,3,3,Production of Biofuels and Biochemicals from Lignocellulosic Biomass: Estimation of Maximum Theoretical Yields and Efficiencies Using Matrix Algebra,The dependence on fossil fuels in developed countries is causing increasing concern. Global warming| issues related to peak oil| sustainability issues| and mounting concern for national energy security are the main drivers for a worldwide effort toward a reduction in fossil fuel consumption. The challenge is substantial| because fossil resources are such an integral part of our economy. However| there are many efforts to address this challenge. Development of conversion technologies fed by renewable resources is seen as a promising option. Many technologies for renewable energy are already well-developed and competitive in the market. Emerging technologies include biorefinery complexes| where biomass is used as a renewable carbon-based source for the production of bioenergy and biochemicals. The latter is perceived as a promising alternative to oil-based chemicals. Given the constraints on availability for renewable biomass supply| the importance of efficient use of biomass with a maximization of useful final products is well-acknowledged. Assessing the potentials for biochemicals can be achieved with an a priori estimation of the maximum theoretical yields| as well as a prediction of the conversion efficiencies (in terms of mass| carbon| and energy efficiency) of selected biorefinery production chains. This paper addresses this issue| providing a calculation procedure with which the theoretical yields and efficiencies of some biorefinery systems are estimated. Among the possible biomass sources| lignocellulosic biomass is selected as the raw material| because it is the most-widespread renewable source available in the world| it is locally available in many countries| and it does not compete with food and feed industries. The conversion of biomass to biofuels and chemicals requires conversion of the feedstock from a solid to a liquid state| but also the addition of hydrogen and rejection of excess oxygen| together with other undesired elements. The carbon contents of lignocellulosic biomass components (cellulose| hemicellulose| and lignin) and products are calculated with the help of mathematical equations| and then the chemical reactions for the conversion of feedstock to products are modeled using matrix algebra: the maximum amount of biofuels and/or biochemicals from biomass and the maximum mass| energy| and carbon conversion efficiency of the biorefinery pathway are determined. Following this calculation procedure| an application to some biorefinery systems is performed and discussed. Combining the best feedstock with the most promising final products| results show that up to 0.33 kg of bioethanol| 0.06 kg of furfural| and 0.17 kg of FT-diesel per kg of softwood can be produced and mass| carbon| and energy conversion efficiencies of 56%| 70%| and 82%| respectively| are achieved. 11476,2010,2,4,Production of biological soil crusts in the early stage of primary succession on a High Arctic glacier foreland,We examined the photosynthetic characteristics and net primary production of biological soil crusts to evaluate their contribution to the carbon cycle in the High Arctic glacier foreland. Biological soil crust samples were collected from a deglaciated area in Ny-Alesund| Svalbard| Norway. Net photosynthetic rates (Pn) and dark respiration rates (R) of biological soil crusts were determined using CO(2) gas exchange rates. We examined the effects of moisture conditions| temperature and photon flux density on Pn and R| and estimated the net primary production by a model based on the relationships between abiotic factors and Pn and R. The maximum Pn value occurred at 50% of the maximum water-holding capacity. Pn decreased with increasing temperature and dropped below zero at high temperatures (c. > 13 degrees C). The estimated net primary production of the biological soil crust was greater than the net primary production of other vegetation when based on ground surface area| during the early stage of primary succession. Model simulation showed that the net primary production of the biological soil crust decreased with increasing temperature. These results suggest that biological soil crust productivity plays an important role in the carbon cycle during the early stage of succession of the High Arctic glacier foreland| and is susceptible to temperature increases from global warming. 11365,2010,5,3,Productivity feedback did not terminate the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM),The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) occurred approximately 55 million years ago| and is one of the most dramatic abrupt global warming events in the geological record. This warming was triggered by the sudden release of thousands of gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere and is widely perceived to be the best analogue for current anthropogenic climate change. Yet| the mechanism of recovery from this event remains controversial. A massive increase in the intensity of the marine biological pump ('productivity feedback') has been suggested to cause a drawdown of atmospheric CO(2) and subsequent carbon sequestration in the ocean. A re-evaluation of the 'productivity feedback hypothesis'| based on biogenic barium mass accumulation rates (Ba-MARs) for a site in the Southern Ocean| finds that any increase in export production lagged the initial carbon release by at least similar to 70 000 years. This implies that export production did not facilitate rapid removal of excess carbon from the atmosphere. Thus| the most likely mechanism for carbon removal appears to be silicate weathering| which occurred at much slower rates than previously assumed. 10479,2010,2,4,Progressive development of water resources in the Middle East for sustainable water supply in a period of climate change,The history of the Middle East has been influenced by past global climatic changes. Warm periods caused droughts| resulting in desertification| migration and war. Cold periods were humid and brought prosperity and agricultural settlement to the desert fringes. The forecast based on this correlation is that the present global warming will cause the drying up of the Middle East. As in the past| this negative impact should be mitigated by using the groundwater resources stored from past wetter times. This will involve deep drilling| pumping and modern irrigation methods within the framework of a new policy of 'progressive development'| which will entail the use of currently undeveloped natural water resources beyond that of present water replenishment. While the use of the one-time groundwater reserves is taking place| a master long-term comprehensive progressive development plan for the Middle East will be prepared. This plan will include the step-by-step development of other water resources such as treated effluents| desalinated brackish groundwater and desalination of seawater. 11425,2010,2,4,Projected climate change effects on water level of an oxbow,One of the most vulnerable regions in the Carpathian Basin is the Great Hungarian Plain| where small and shallow oxbows are endangered along river Tisza. The purpose of this paper is to determine how the global warming affects a typical oxbow| located on the floodplain of river Tisza| in Hungary. A coupled meteorological-hydraulic model is developed and applied for this oxbow. Results suggest that the monthly minimum water levels are expected to decrease| moreover| extreme drought events sometimes result temporary drying-up of the oxbow. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10753,2010,2,3,Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness,Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date| the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios| relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100| global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario| but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios| the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions| a CSR increase is expected| the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR| whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction| we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras. 440,2010,2,4,Projected Loss of a Salamander Diversity Hotspot as a Consequence of Projected Global Climate Change,Background: Significant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms| so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation. Many plethodontid species in southern Appalachia exist in high elevation habitats that may be at or near their thermal maxima| and may also have limited dispersal abilities across warmer valley bottoms. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used a maximum-entropy approach (program Maxent) to model the suitable climatic habitat of 41 plethodontid salamander species inhabiting the Appalachian Highlands region (33 individual species and eight species included within two species complexes). We evaluated the relative change in suitable climatic habitat for these species in the Appalachian Highlands from the current climate to the years 2020| 2050| and 2080| using both the HADCM3 and the CGCM3 models| each under low and high CO(2) scenarios| and using two-model thresholds levels (relative suitability thresholds for determining suitable/unsuitable range)| for a total of 8 scenarios per species. Conclusion/Significance: While models differed slightly| every scenario projected significant declines in suitable habitat within the Appalachian Highlands as early as 2020. Species with more southern ranges and with smaller ranges had larger projected habitat loss. Despite significant differences in projected precipitation changes to the region| projections did not differ significantly between global circulation models. CO(2) emissions scenario and model threshold had small effects on projected habitat loss by 2020| but did not affect longer-term projections. Results of this study indicate that choice of model threshold and CO(2) emissions scenario affect short-term projected shifts in climatic distributions of species; however| these factors and choice of global circulation model have relatively small affects on what is significant projected loss of habitat for many salamander species that currently occupy the Appalachian Highlands. 10483,2010,2,4,Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming,Mountains| especially in the tropics| harbour a unique and large portion of the world's biodiversity. Their geographical isolation| limited range size and unique environmental adaptations make montane species potentially the most threatened under impeding climate change. Here| we provide a global baseline assessment of geographical range contractions and extinction risk of high-elevation specialists in a future warmer world. We consider three dispersal scenarios for simulated species and for the world's 1009 montane bird species. Under constrained vertical dispersal (VD)| species with narrow vertical distributions are strongly impacted; at least a third of montane bird diversity is severely threatened. In a scenario of unconstrained VD| the location and structure of mountain systems emerge as a strong driver of extinction risk. Even unconstrained lateral movements offer little improvement to the fate of montane species in the Afrotropics| Australasia and Nearctic. Our results demonstrate the particular roles that the geography of species richness| the spatial structure of lateral and particularly vertical range extents and the specific geography of mountain systems have in determining the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change. Our findings confirm the outstanding levels of biotic perturbation and extinction risk that mountain systems are likely to experience under global warming and highlight the need for additional knowledge on species' vertical distributions| dispersal and adaptive capacities. 10950,2010,4,2,Projecting climate change impacts on species distributions in megadiverse South African Cape and Southwest Australian Floristic Regions: Opportunities and challenges,Increasing evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change is affecting biodiversity. Reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions may slow global warming| but past emissions will continue to contribute to further unavoidable warming for more than a century. With obvious signs of difficulties in achieving effective mitigation worldwide in the short term at least| sound scientific predictions of future impacts on biodiversity will be required to guide conservation planning and adaptation. This is especially true in Mediterranean type ecosystems that are projected to be among the most significantly affected by anthropogenic climate change| and show the highest levels of confidence in rainfall projections. Multiple methods are available for projecting the consequences of climate change on the main unit of interest - the species - with each method having strengths and weaknesses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges. Aggregation of models for different species allows inferences of impacts on biodiversity| though excluding the effects of species interactions. The modelling approach is based on several further assumptions and projections and should be treated cautiously. In the absence of comparable approaches that address large numbers of species| SDMs remain valuable in estimating the vulnerability of species. In this review we discuss the application of SDMs in predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with special reference to the species-rich South West Australian Floristic Region and South African Cape Floristic Region. We discuss the advantages and challenges in applying SDMs in biodiverse regions with high levels of endemicity| and how a similar biogeographical history in both regions may assist us in understanding their vulnerability to climate change. We suggest how the process of predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with SDMs can be improved and emphasize the role of field monitoring and experiments in validating the predictions of SDMs. 11485,2010,2,2,Projecting the distribution of forests in New England in response to climate change,Aim To project the distribution of three major forest types in the northeastern USA in response to expected climate change. Location The New England region of the United States. Methods We modelled the potential distribution of boreal conifer| northern deciduous hardwood and mixed oak-hickory forests using the process-based BIOME4 vegetation model parameterized for regional forests under historic and projected future climate conditions. Projections of future climate were derived from three general circulation models forced by three global warming scenarios that span the range of likely anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Results Annual temperature in New England is projected to increase by 2.2-3.3 degrees C by 2041-70 and by 3.0-5.2 degrees C by 2071-99 with corresponding increases in precipitation of 4.7-9.5% and 6.4-11.4%| respectively. We project that regional warming will result in the loss of 71-100% of boreal conifer forest in New England by the late 21st century. The range of mixed oak-hickory forests will shift northward by 1.0-2.1 latitudinal degrees (c. 100-200 km) and will increase in area by 149-431% by the end of the 21st century. Northern deciduous hardwoods are expected to decrease in area by 26% and move upslope by 76 m on average. The upslope movement of the northern deciduous hardwoods and the increase in oak-hickory forests coincide with an approximate 556 m upslope retreat of the boreal conifer forest by 2071-99. In our simulations| rising atmospheric CO(2) concentrations reduce the losses of boreal conifer forest in New England from expected losses based on climatic change alone. Main conclusion Projected climate warming in the 21st century is likely to cause the extensive loss of boreal conifer forests| reduce the extent of northern hardwood deciduous forests| and result in large increases of mixed oak-hickory forest in New England. 11090,2010,2,2,Projection of changes in tropical cyclone activity and cloud height due to greenhouse warming: Global cloud-system-resolving approach,Tropical cyclone (TC) activity change due to global warming (GW) has been investigated using general circulation models. However| they involve uncertainty in treating the ensemble effects of deep convections. Here we sidestep such uncertainty by using a global cloud-system-resolving model (GCRM) and assess TC changes with a time-slice experiment for the present-day and future GW experiments spanning 5 months each. The results support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report; reduction in global frequency but increase in more intense TCs. Consistent with recent studies| frequency is reduced over the North Atlantic due to intensified vertical wind shear. Over the Pacific| frequency is almost unchanged and the genesis location shifts eastward under the prescribed El-Nino like sea surface temperature change. With the GCRM's advantage of representing mesoscale properties| we find that the cloud height becomes taller for more intense TCs and that this relationship is strengthened with GW. Citation: Yamada| Y.| K. Oouchi| M. Satoh| H. Tomita| and W. Yanase (2010)| Projection of changes in tropical cyclone activity and cloud height due to greenhouse warming: Global cloud-system-resolving approach| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L07709| doi:10.1029/2010GL042518. 10919,2010,2,3,PROJECTIONS OF SUITABLE HABITAT FOR RARE SPECIES UNDER GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS,Premise of the study: Modeling the contemporary and future climate niche for rare plants is a major hurdle in conservation| yet such projections are necessary to prevent extinctions that may result from climate change. Methods: We used recently developed spline climatic models and modified Random Forests statistical procedures to predict suitable habitats of three rare| endangered spruces of Mexico and a spruce of the southwestern USA. We used three general circulation models and two sets of carbon emission scenarios ( optimistic and pessimistic) for future climates. Key results: Our procedures predicted present occurrence perfectly. For the decades 2030| 2060| and 2090| the ranges of all taxa progressively decreased| to the point of transient disappearance for one species in the decade 2060 but reappearance in 2090. Contrary to intuition| habitat did not develop to the north for any of the Mexican taxa; rather| climate niches for two taxa re-materialized several hundred kilometers southward in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The climate niche for a third Mexican taxon shrank drastically| and its two mitotypes responded differently| one of the first demonstrations of the importance of intraspecific genetic variation in climate niches. The climate niche of the U. S. species shrank northward and upward in elevation. Conclusion: The results are important for conservation of these species and are of general significance for conservation by assisted colonization. We conclude that our procedures for producing models and projecting the climate niches of Mexican spruces provide a way for handling other rare plants| which constitute the great bulk of the world's endangered and most vulnerable flora. 11384,2010,3,2,Promotion of Environmental Protetcion in the Danube River Basin,For transport purposes a great amount of fossil fuels is exploited which represents the biggest threat to global warming and the realization of sustainable development concept. European Union is trying to implement and plan this concept on the entire European continent. In order to manage the sustainable development strategy| it is necessary to conduct an all-inclusive analysis of the current state and depending on the results| set some goals and define the activities that will make their realization possible. This research is based on the analysis of the waterway transport on Danube River and its aim is to point out the facts| based on which it will be possible to predict further directions of sustainable transport development on the most important waterway of Europe. The research indicates the basic rules of European politics of sustainable inland waterway development. The River Danube is considered to be the backbone of water transport in Europe. It connects| via Rhine - Main Canal| Western Europe and Rotterdam harbor with the Black Sea| that is with Russia and the East. The authors also analyse the data about the use of Danube waterway for transport of goods This research covered a short description of Danube| the analysis of Danube fleet| the analysis of the amount of transported goods as well as the analysis of load and unload of goods. The research covered these points in the period starting from the year of 1950. Based on the result analysis the authors arrived at a conclusion that the use of River Danube for waterway transport purposes is unsatisfactory and that as such cannot be sustained in long term. Also| the research points to the basic European initiatives and investment projects in the field of river transport which is in implementation stage. Considering the basic regulation documents and research results| the authors present an overview of measures and suggestions for efficient management conducted so far| development of a unique information system and promotion of Danube waterway| which will lead towards long-term sustainable development transport on Danube and so it will stimulate a stable and sustainable development of all countries and regions in Europe. 10538,2010,3,4,Prospectives for China's solar thermal power technology development,China's total installed electrical power capacity reached 700 GW by the end of 2007 and is predicted to surpass 900 GW in 2010. The rapid increase in energy demand and increasing global warming have both pushed China to change its current electrical power structure where coal power accounts for nearly 75% of the total electric power generation. China has already become the world's largest solar water heater producer and user. However| there is still much to be done in the solar thermal power field before its commercialization. Solar thermal power technologies including solar power towers| solar parabolic trough concentrators| solar dish/stirling systems| linear Fresnel reflectors| and solar chimneys have been studied in China since the 1980s. A 10 kW dish/stirling project was funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) during 2000-2005 with a 1 MW solar power tower and research of trough concentrator metal-glass evacuated tubes supported during 2006-2010. This paper describes a continued solar thermal power development roadmap in China in 5-year intervals between 2006 and 2025. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11436,2010,3,4,Prospects of Livestock Production in Balochistan,Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan and makes about 44% of the total geographical area of the country. Most of the area is rangelands with only 5% arable. Animal agriculture is centuries old occupation of the people of Balochistan. Livestock are one of the major important sectors of the province having about 20% of the national stock. However| with little manufacturing facilities and underdeveloped infrastructure| the provincial economy lags far behind other parts of the country. This is the cradle of many precious livestock breeds and livestock make an important part of the socio-cultural and socioeconomic survival of its inhabitants. The biodiversity of animal genetic resources plays very pivotal role in the economy of the province and each breed has its own uniqueness and socioeconomic importance. The exact value of such precious animal genetic resource has never been realized as yet and no serious steps have been taken for its improvement. It is the utmost need of the time to rethink on the policies relating to livestock production in the province while keeping the needs of the growing population| socio-cultural change and the global warming issues in mind. (c) 2010 PVJ. All rights reserved 10883,2010,3,4,Protection behavior of fluorine-containing cover gases on molten magnesium alloys,The sulphur hexa-fluoride gas(SF(6))| which is commonly used as the cover gas of molten magnesium alloys in the magnesium industry today| has an extremely high global warming potential(GWP). The protection mechanism of SF(6) containing cover gases on molten magnesium alloys was presented. The cover gas protects the melt by reacting with the melt to form a coherent protective film on the melt surface. The film contains MgO and MgF(2). Particles containing MgF2 form on the interface between the oxide film and the bulk magnesium alloy| which correspond to the concave areas from the surface observation. These particles increase the Pilling and Bedworth ratio of surface film and enhance the protective capability of the films. Based on the understanding of the mechanism of SF(6)| a melting technology in a sealed furnace was proposed| and the protection behavior of magnesium alloys in the sealed melting furnace was investigated under the protective atmosphere containing HFC-134a. The morphology and composition of the surface film were also studied. Experiments to evaluate the protective effect of two other fluorine containing gases with low GWPs on AZ91D alloy in the sealed furnace were also carried out| and the results show that the new gases are potential substitutes for SF(6). 580,2010,2,4,Protein expression and genetic structure of the coral Porites lobata in an environmentally extreme Samoan back reef: does host genotype limit phenotypic plasticity?,The degree to which coral reef ecosystems will be impacted by global climate change depends on regional and local differences in corals' susceptibility and resilience to environmental stressors. Here| we present data from a reciprocal transplant experiment using the common reef building coral Porites lobata between a highly fluctuating back reef environment that reaches stressful daily extremes| and a more stable| neighbouring forereef. Protein biomarker analyses assessing physiological contributions to stress resistance showed evidence for both fixed and environmental influence on biomarker response. Fixed influences were strongest for ubiquitin-conjugated proteins with consistently higher levels found in back reef source colonies both pre and post-transplant when compared with their forereef conspecifics. Additionally| genetic comparisons of back reef and forereef populations revealed significant population structure of both the nuclear ribosomal and mitochondrial genomes of the coral host (F(ST) = 0.146 P < 0.0001| F(ST) = 0.335 P < 0.0001 for rDNA and mtDNA| respectively)| whereas algal endosymbiont populations were genetically indistinguishable between the two sites. We propose that the genotype of the coral host may drive limitations to the physiological responses of these corals when faced with new environmental conditions. This result is important in understanding genotypic and environmental interactions in the coral algal symbiosis and how corals may respond to future environmental changes. 454,2010,2,4,Proteomics application of crops in the context of climatic changes,Abiotic stress caused by global climate change varies widely| which negatively affect crops growth and productivity throughout the world. Environmental changes can alter plant's physiological state and trigger several signaling pathways for adaptation to unfavorable conditions. Plant response to abiotic stress includes changes in protein expression and post-translational modification of proteins to activate their defense system against the challenges. Research on plant proteomes has provided beneficial information for a comprehensive understanding of the protein networks in plants in response to external stimuli. Large-scale proteomics is a powerful approach for studies of complex biological processes in which a number of proteins take part; proteome analysis of sub-cellular structures and modified proteins has enabled identification of novel components of plant stress responses that had not previously been discovered. In this review| we have discussed the recent developments of crop proteomics in the context of several climatic factors including photosynthetic stress| air pollutants| thermal stress including heat and cold| and osmotic stress| including drought| salt| and flooding stress| and metal stress. The aim of this review is to take a snapshot of several proteomic approaches in crop plants that provide a comprehensive list of components affected by certain abiotic stresses in climate. The biological relevance of these proteins in regard to plant stress tolerance will be described as well. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10990,2010,3,4,Quantification of the Environmental Benefits of Ultrafine/Nanotitanium Dioxide Photocatalyst Coatings for Concrete Pavement Using Hybrid Life-Cycle Assessment,The use of titanium dioxide (TiO(2)) ultrafine particulates as coating for concrete pavement have received considerable attention in recent years as these coatings can trap and absorb organic and inorganic air pollutants by a photocatalytic process. Despite these promising benefits| the promotion of TiO(2) coatings based on a single factor such as air quality does not provide a complete evaluation of this technology and may omit critical environmental factors that should be considered in the selection of sustainable materials. The objective of this study was to determine the life-cycle assessment of TiO(2) coating technology based on a hybrid life-cycle methodology. To achieve this objective| a life-cycle inventory that quantifies the energy| abiotic raw material inputs| and emission of TiO(2) coatings from cradle to grave were developed. Based on this inventory| life-cycle impact assessment of TiO(2) coatings for concrete pavement was conducted using the BEES impact assessment model. The use of titanium dioxide coating reduces the concentration of harmful pollutants by a photocatalytic process| and therefore| reduces the environmental impacts in four main categories: acidification| eutrophication| criteria air pollutants| and smog formation. However| during the production phases and due to the consumption of fossil energy| titanium dioxide will cause an increase in global warming| fossil fuel depletion| water intake| ozone depletion| and impacts on human health. Based on the overall environmental performance of this product| life-cycle assessment shows that titanium dioxide coating has an overall beneficial effect on the environment. 10821,2010,2,3,Quantifying the relative importance of lake emissions in the carbon budget of a subarctic catchment,Climate change and thawing of permafrost will likely result in increased decomposition of terrestrial organic carbon and subsequent carbon emissions to the atmosphere from terrestrial and aquatic systems. The quantitative importance of mineralization of terrestrial organic carbon in lakes in relation to terrestrial carbon fluxes is poorly understood and a serious drawback for the understanding of carbon budgets. We studied a subarctic lake in an area of discontinuous permafrost to assess the quantitative importance of lake carbon emission for the catchment carbon balance. Estimates of net ecosystem production and stable carbon-isotope composition of dissolved organic carbon in the lake water suggest substantial input and respiration of terrestrial organic carbon in the lake. The lake was a net source of CO(2) and CH(4) to the atmosphere at ice breakup in spring and during the whole ice-free period. The carbon emission from the lake was similar in magnitude to the terrestrial net release of carbon to the atmosphere. The results indicate that lakes are important sources of catchment carbon emission| potentially increasing the positive feedback from permafrost thawing on global warming. 11534,2010,3,4,Quantitative Assessment of Environmental and Economic Benefits of Recycled Materials in Highway Construction,The benefits of using recycled materials in highway pavements was assessed quantitatively by conducting life-cycle analysis and life-cycle cost analysis on pavements consisting of conventional and recycled materials for a highway construction project in Wisconsin. Results of the analysis indicate that using recycled materials in the base and subbase layers of a pavement can result in reductions in global warming potential (20%)| energy consumption (16%)| water consumption (11%)| and hazardous waste generation (11%) while also extending the service life of the pavement. In addition| using recycled materials in the base and subbase layers can result in a life-cycle cost savings of 21%. The savings are even greater if landfill avoidance costs are considered for the recycled materials incorporated in the pavement. Extrapolation of the benefits to conditions nationwide indicates that modest changes in pavement design to incorporate recycled materials can contribute substantially to the emission reductions required to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at current levels. 11501,2010,5,3,Quaternary climates: a perspective for global warming,This brief review provides an Earth Science perspective on present climate change (global warming) using evidence from past ice ages with details from the Quaternary ice age. It places the present (Quaternary) ice age in the context of Earth history and outlines possible causes of ice ages and the scale and style of ice age climate. Milankovitch climate forcing is described and explained as the cause of relatively predictable climatic variations within an ice age (and at other times)| and this is followed by an outline of the factors likely to be responsible for short and rapid sub-Milankovitch climate variations that are superimposed on the predictable changes. Finally the anomalous| relatively constant climate of the last 11.5 ka (Holocene) is highlighted and explained in terms of human input of greenhouse gasses into the Earth's atmosphere. (C) 2010 The Geologists' Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10593,2010,5,4,Quaternary oceans and climate change: lessons for the future?,There is much interest in ice-age studies in recent decades| in the context of global warming. The relevant findings are these: large regular changes in climate occurred within the last million years| especially in the northern North Atlantic. Extreme conditions were similar| suggesting strong negative feedback at the edges of the range of variation. The nature of the periods of climate variation suggests orbital forcing by modulation of internal oscillations involving lagged negative feedback on ice buildup. Transitions from cold to warm were rapid and they were not readily reversed| indicating that ice dynamics underlies abrupt climate change. Accelerated rates of ice decay upon warming correspond to a sea-level rise of one to two m/century. Millennial-scale abrupt disturbances known as "Dansgaard-Oeschger'' and "Heinrich'' Events occur when large ice masses are present in the northern hemisphere. They may be considered experiments on the ocean's response to massive meltwater input. When using results from ice-age studies to project future developments| one must be aware that the future will be largely outside of experience with regard to the recent geologic past. Also| there are as yet no generally accepted explanations for striking changes in the past| such as the rapid rise of carbon dioxide during deglaciation| demonstrating a profound lack of understanding of climate dynamics. This is| so far| the lesson from ice-age studies: they say much about the deficiencies in our level of understanding| and not so much about what is ahead. 11308,2010,2,4,Radial growth response of four dominant boreal tree species to climate along a latitudinal gradient in the eastern Canadian boreal forest,To address the central question of how climate change influences tree growth within the context of global warming| we used dendroclimatological analysis to understand the reactions of four major boreal tree species - Populus tremuloides| Betula papyrifera| Picea mariana| and Pinus banksiana - to climatic variations along a broad latitudinal gradient from 46 to 54 degrees N in the eastern Canadian boreal forest. Tree-ring chronologies from 34 forested stands distributed at a 1 degrees interval were built| transformed into principal components (PCs)| and analyzed through bootstrapped correlation analysis over the period 1950-2003 to identify climate factors limiting the radial growth and the detailed radial growth-climate association along the gradient. All species taken together| previous summer temperature (negative influences)| and current January and March-April temperatures (positive influences) showed the most consistent relationships with radial growth across the gradient. Combined with the identified species/site-specific climate factors| our study suggested that moisture conditions during the year before radial growth played a dominant role in positively regulating P. tremuloides growth| whereas January temperature and growing season moisture conditions positively impacted growth of B. papyrifera. Both P. mariana and P. banksiana were positively affected by the current-year winter and spring or whole growing season temperatures over the entire range of our corridor. Owing to the impacts of different climate factors on growth| these boreal species showed inconsistent responsiveness to recent warming at the transition zone| where B. papyrifera| P. mariana| and P. banksiana would be the most responsive species| whereas P. tremuloides might be the least. Under continued warming| B. papyrifera stands located north of 49 degrees N| P. tremuloides at northern latitudes| and P. mariana and P. banksiana stands located north of 47 degrees N might benefit from warming winter and spring temperatures to enhance their radial growth in the coming decades| whereas other southern stands might be decreasing in radial growth. 533,2010,2,4,Radiation partitioning and its relation to environmental factors above a meadow ecosystem on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,Understanding the energy balance on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is essential for better prediction of global climate change. To characterize the energy balance on the plateau| we examined the radiation partitioning over a Kobresia meadow| the most widely distributed vegetation on the plateau| for the period from 2002 to 2005. The incident solar radiation (R(s)) and net radiation (R(n)) averaged 6298 and 2779 MJ m(-2) yr(-1)| respectively. The albedo averaged 0.220 annually| with a slightly low value of 0.202 in the growing season from May to September. An increase in soil water or leaf area index was correlated with a decrease of albedo over the meadow. The annual solar radiation lost 34% as longwave radiation| which was higher than values reported for lowland grasslands. The annual radiation efficiency (R(n)/R(s)) over the meadow| at an average of 0.44| was| however| much lower than that for lowland grasslands. The net longwave radiation (L(n)) and the normalized effective radiation (L(n)/R(s)) over the meadow were much higher than that for the global surface or for lowland grasslands| indicating that the longwave exchange between alpine meadow and atmosphere is the most important component of energy losses. A path analysis suggests that the water vapor pressure| air temperature| and cloud cover are the major factors governing the variations of both the net radiation and the net longwave radiation in the alpine meadow ecosystem. 11089,2010,4,3,Radiative signature of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide in HIRS satellite observations,We examine the cause and implications of decadal trends observed in the High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) CO(2) channels over the period 1980-1999 in conjunction with Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) O(2) channel measurements and climate model simulations. Simulated HIRS brightness temperatures (TBs) from the climate model with constant carbon dioxide indicate a global warming trend (similar to 0.2 K/decade) consistent with the corresponding MSU observations. By contrast| simulations with observed time-varying CO(2) concentration result in a global decreasing TB trend (similar to-0.3 K/decade)| indicating a greater influence of increased CO(2) on the HIRS radiances compared to the tropospheric warming. Moreover| comparison between observation and simulations suggests that there may be important regional variations in the CO(2) trends| particularly over the northern hemisphere midlatitudes downstream from major CO(2) sources (U. S. and China). Thus the HIRS CO(2) radiances may provide one opportunity to supplement existing surface networks by constraining regional patterns of decadal CO(2) variability. Citation: Chung| E.-S.| and B. J. Soden (2010)| Radiative signature of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide in HIRS satellite observations| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L07707| doi:10.1029/2010GL042698. 489,2010,2,4,Rainfall induces time-lagged changes in the proportion of tropical aquatic hosts infected with metazoan parasites,Rainfall serves as a powerful driving force| shifting temporal abundance and prevalence patterns in parasites and free-living aquatic organisms in tropical environments. However| there is a lack of sound evidence showing the temporal scales at which rainfall influences infection parameters of parasites in the tropics either directly by affecting the parasite life cycle or indirectly by modifying host population abundance. In the present study| we demonstrate that changes in rainfall patterns lead to changes in the proportion of infected hosts with several parasite species| causing immediate or lagged favourable conditions for an increase in levels of infection. However| the temporal scale of the influence of rainfall varied depending on the ecological characteristics of aquatic ecosystems. Despite the environmental heterogeneity and stochastic events (storms and hurricanes) which affect the study sites| the proportion of infected hosts shows frequency cycles on a yearly scale| suggesting that environmental changes are within the range of variability that naturally occur at the study sites. We propose that the incorporation of stochastic events into long-term predictive models is crucial for understanding the potential effects of global climate change on infection parameters of tropical parasites. (C) 2010 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10551,2010,2,4,Range dynamics of small mammals along an elevational gradient over an 80-year interval,One expected response to observed global warming is an upslope shift of species elevational ranges. Here| we document changes in the elevational distributions of the small mammals within the Ruby Mountains in northeastern Nevada over an 80-year interval. We quantified range shifts by comparing distributional records from recent comprehensive field surveys (2006-2008) to earlier surveys (1927-1929) conducted at identical and nearby locations. Collector field notes from the historical surveys provided detailed trapping records and locality information| and museum specimens enabled confirmation of species' identifications. To ensure that observed shifts in range did not result from sampling bias| we employed a binomial likelihood model (introduced here) using likelihood ratios to calculate confidence intervals around observed range limits. Climate data indicate increases in both precipitation and summer maximum temperature between sampling periods. Increases in winter minimum temperatures were only evident at mid to high elevations. Consistent with predictions of change associated with climate warming| we document upslope range shifts for only two mesic-adapted species. In contrast| no xeric-adapted species expanded their ranges upslope. Rather| they showed either static distributions over time or downslope contraction or expansion. We attribute these unexpected findings to widespread land-use driven habitat change at lower elevations. Failure to account for land-use induced changes in both baseline assessments and in predicting shifts in species distributions may provide misleading objectives for conservation policies and management practices. 10457,2010,5,3,Rapid carbon sequestration at the termination of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)| an approximately 170|000-year-long period of global warming about 56 million years ago| has been attributed to the release of thousands of petagrams of reduced carbon into the ocean| atmosphere and biosphere(1|2). However| the fate of this excess carbon at the end of the event is poorly constrained: drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide has been attributed to an increase in the weathering of silicates or to increased rates of organic carbon burial(1|3-5). Here we develop constraints on the rate of carbon drawdown based on rates of carbon isotope change in well-dated marine and terrestrial sediments spanning the event. We find that the rate of recovery is an order of magnitude more rapid than that expected for carbon drawdown by silicate weathering alone. Unless existing estimates of carbon stocks and cycling during this time are widely inaccurate| our results imply that more than 2|000 Pg of carbon were sequestered as organic carbon over 30|000-40|000 years at the end of the PETM. We suggest that the accelerated sequestration of organic carbon could reflect the regrowth of carbon stocks in the biosphere or shallow lithosphere that were released at the onset of the event. 11129,2010,3,3,Rapid climate change problem and wind energy investments for Turkey,The aim of this study is that| giving theoretical information about climate change| making some explanation about global trend of wind energy market and developments of Turkish wind energy market finally giving some information about wind energy regulations in Germany. Energy is one of the main sources of economical and social developments. Energy demand Is increasing day by day both global and national scale of many countries. Current energy paradigm is based on foss| I fuels but fossil energy sources decrease day by day and go through to death point. While this process| fossil sources constitute the main source of green house gas and fast climate change. Today| at this point usage and spread of renewable energy Sources is taking place on the agenda of many countries. Wind energy systems have high learning curve value (92%) and when making comparison between wind energy and other renewable energy systems according to cost and efficiency parameter in that reason wind energy systems are more preferable. At the end of the 2008| global installed wind power was reached to 121000 MW and 158 million tones carbon dioxide emission was prevented with this installed power. According to Turkish Met office studies| mean temperature of Turkey has growing trend. Mean temperature of Turkey could be increase between 5 degrees C and 6 degrees C when comparing between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 period. Energy production paradigm of Turkey is based on thermal conventional technology. In that reason CO(2) emission level was increased 74.4% between 1990 and 2004 in Turkey. This emission growth is a part of mean temperature increasing problem. Turkey wind energy potential is 47849 MW and nearly 62 million tones carbon dioxide emission could be prevented with this potential. 11091,2010,4,4,Rate Coefficients for the Gas-Phase Reaction of the Hydroxyl Radical with CH(2)= CHF and CH(2)= CF(2),Rate coefficients| k| for the gas-phase reaction of the OH radical with CH(2)= CHF (k(1)) and CH(2)= CF(2) (k(2)) were measured under pseudo-first-order conditions in OH using pulsed laser photolysis to produce OH and laser-induced fluorescence (PLP-LIF) to detect it. Rate coefficients were measured over a range of temperature (220-373 K) and bath gas pressure (20-600 Tom He| N(2)). The rate coefficients were found to be independent of pressure. The measured rate coefficient for reaction 1 at room temperature was k(1)(296 K) = (5.18 +/- 0.50) x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| independent of pressure| and the temperature dependence is given by the Arrhenius expression k(1)(T) = (1.75 +/- 0.20) x 10(-12) exp[(316 +/- 25)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1); the rate coefficients for reaction 2 were k(2)(296 K) = (2.79 +/- 0.25) x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and k(2)(T) = (1.75 +/- 0.20) x 10(-12) exp[(140 +/- 20)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The quoted uncertainties are 2 sigma (95% confidence level) and include estimated systematic errors. The fall-off parameters for reaction 2 of k(infinity) = 3 x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and k(0)(296 K) = 1.8 x 10(-28) cm(6) molecule(-2) s(-1) with F(c) = 0.6 reproduce the room temperature data obtained in this study combined with the low pressure rate coefficient data from Howard (J. Chem. Phys. 1976| 65| 4771). OH radical formation was observed for reactions 1 and 2 in the presence of O(2)| and the mechanism was investigated using (18)OH and OD rate coefficient measurements with CH(2)= CHF and CH(2)= CF(2) over a range of temperature (260-373 K) and pressure (20-100 Torr| He). Quantum chemical calculations using density functional theory (DFT) were used to determine the geometries and energies of the reactants and adducts formed in reactions 1 and 2 and the peroxy radicals formed following the addition of O(2). The atmospheric lifetimes of CH(2)= CHF and CH(2)= CF(2) due to loss by reaction with OH are approximately 2 and 4 days| respectively. Infrared absorption spectra of CH(2)= CHF and CH(2)= CF(2) were measured| and global warming potentials (GWP) values of 0.7 for CH(2)= CHF and 0.9 for CH(2)= CF(2) were obtained for the 100 year time horizon. 11088,2010,4,4,Reactive and nonreactive quenching of O((1)D) by the potent greenhouse gases SO(2)F(2)| NF(3)| and SF(5)CF(3),A laser flash photolysis-resonance fluorescence technique has been employed to measure rate coefficients and physical vs. reactive quenching branching ratios for O(1D) deactivation by three potent greenhouse gases| SO(2)F(2)(k(1))| NF(3)(k(2))| and SF(5)CF(3)(k(3)). In excellent agreement with one published study| we find that k(1)(T) = 9.0 x 10(-11) exp (+98/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and that the reactive quenching rate coefficient is k(1b) (5.8 +/- 2.3) x 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) independent of temperature. We find that k(2)(T) = 2.0 x 10(-11) exp (+52/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) with reaction proceeding almost entirely (similar to 99%) by reactive quenching. Reactive quenching of O((1)D) by NF(3) is more than a factor of two faster than reported in one published study| a result that will significantly lower the model-derived atmospheric lifetime and global warming potential of NF(3). Deactivation of O((1)D) by SF(5)CF(3) is slow enough (k(3) < 2.0 x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) at 298 K) that reaction with O((1)D) is unimportant as an atmospheric removal mechanism for SF(5)CF(3). The kinetics of O((1)D) reactions with SO(2) (k(4)) and CS(2) (k(5)) have also been investigated at 298 K. We find that k(4) = (2.2 +/- 0.3) x 10(-10) and k(5) = (4.6 +/- 0.6) x 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1); branching ratios for reactive quenching are 0.76 +/- 0.12 and 0.94 +/- 0.06 for the SO(2) and CS(2) reactions| respectively. All uncertainties reported above are estimates of accuracy (2 sigma) and rate coefficients k(i) (T) (i = 1; 2) calculated from the above Arrhenius expressions have estimated accuracies of +15% (2 sigma). 11386,2010,3,4,Reactive Ion Etching of Si Using Ar/F(2) Plasma,We investigated the Si dry etching process using Ar/F(2) plasma. A vertical etching profile and a smooth etched surface| which satisfy the requirements for optical device fabrication| were obtained. The etching rate of Si was approximately 0.1 mu m/min at 5 Pa and 150 W. We believe that Ar/F2 plasma etching is a very simple and useful process for fabricating Si-based optical devices| such as photonic crystals| narrow optical waveguides| and micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS). In addition| this etching process is suitable for the protection of the earth environment| because the global warming potential (GWP) of F is 0. (C) 2010 The Japan Society of Applied Physics 10915,2010,5,4,Reassessing the temporal evolution of orchids with new fossils and a Bayesian relaxed clock| with implications for the diversification of the rare South American genus Hoffmannseggella (Orchidaceae: Epidendroideae),Background: The temporal origin and diversification of orchids (family Orchidaceae) has been subject to intense debate in the last decade. The description of the first reliable fossil in 2007 enabled a direct calibration of the orchid phylogeny| but little attention has been paid to the potential influence of dating methodology in obtaining reliable age estimates. Moreover| two new orchid fossils described in 2009 have not yet been incorporated in a molecular dating analysis. Here we compare the ages of major orchid clades estimated under two widely used methods| a Bayesian relaxed clock implemented in BEAST and Penalized Likelihood implemented in r8s. We then perform a new family-level analysis by integrating all 3 available fossils and using BEAST. To evaluate how the newly estimated ages may influence the evolutionary interpretation of a species-level phylogeny| we assess divergence times for the South American genus Hoffmannseggella (subfam. Epidendroideae)| for which we present an almost complete phylogeny (40 out of 41 species sampled). Results: Our results provide additional support that all extant orchids shared a most recent common ancestor in the Late Cretaceous (similar to 77 million years ago| Ma). However| we estimate the crown age of the five orchid subfamilies to be generally (similar to 1-8 Ma) younger than previously calculated under the Penalized Likelihood algorithm and using a single internal fossil calibration. The crown age of Hoffmannseggella is estimated here at similar to 11 Ma| some 3 Ma more recently than estimated under Penalized Likelihood. Conclusions: Contrary to recent suggestions that orchid diversification began in a period of global warming| our results place the onset of diversification of the largest orchid subfamilies (Orchidoideae and Epidendroideae) in a period of global cooling subsequent to the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. The diversification of Hoffmannseggella appears even more correlated to late Tertiary climatic fluctuations than previously suggested. With the incorporation of new fossils in the orchid phylogeny and the use of a method that is arguably more adequate given the present data| our results represent the most up-to-date estimate of divergence times in orchids. 11065,2010,2,4,Recent (137)Cs deposition in sediments of Admiralty Bay| Antarctica,Cesium-137| radium-226 and lead-210 profiles of a 25 cm sediment core give an indication of recent changes in land ocean interactions at a polar coastal environment (Admiralty Bay| King George Island| Antarctica). The linear sedimentation accumulation rate at the study site calculated from the unsupported (210)Pb profile was 6.7 mm/year from 1965 to 2005. A 3.5-fold increase in (137)Cs concentrations was observed in the top layer of this sediment core. This sharp increase seems to indicate a recent redistribution of fallout radionuclides previously deposited on soil| vegetation and snow. These results imply enhanced land ocean interactions at this site likely as a result of climate change. Because our results are based on a single core| additional investigations are needed to confirm our observations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10536,2010,2,4,Recent Changes in Body Size of the Eurasian Otter Lutra lutra in Sweden,We studied geographical and temporal body size trends among 169 adult museum specimens of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) collected in Sweden between 1962 and 2008| whose sex| year of collection| and locality were known. Skull size and body mass increased significantly in relation to the year of collection| and skull size (but not body mass) was significantly and negatively related to latitude| contrasting Bergmann's rule and the trend found for Norwegian otters. Latitudinal differences in body size between the two countries may be due to differences in food availability. The temporal increase in body size among Swedish otters resembled that observed for Norway otters| though Swedish otters are smaller with respect to their Norwegian counterparts. Latitude and year represent a combination of environmental factors| including ambient temperature in the year of collection as well as the number of days of ice coverage. We replaced the above factors with mean annual temperature or the number of days of ice coverage| and found that each of these factors explains a similar proportion of the variation in body size as did latitude and year. We hypothesize that this temporal increase in body size is related to a combination of factors| including reduced energy expenditure resulting from increasing ambient temperature| and increased food availability from longer ice-free periods. 11510,2010,2,4,RECENT CHANGES OF THE TURKISH ANCHOVY FISHERY IN THE BLACK SEA WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE,The Black Sea ecosystem| suffering ecological deteriorations through long-term changes induced by natural and anthropogenic factors| needs to be continuously monitored for its environmental state and ecological processes. In this study we have analysed the changes of the sea temperature over the 25 years of period in the southern Black Sea to look at if there has been an effect of climate changes on the Turkish anchovy fishery. Conclusions derived through this present study| comparisons for assessing changes in the Black Sea ecosystem related to climate changes and Turkish anchovy fishery can be summarised as follows: It is clear that there has been an increase in temperature especially in the winter months in the southern Black Sea. Although the data set is not good enough for a complete analysis of the effect of global warming on anchovy fishery| together with ecological problems| pollution| over-fishing| oil prices and tendency in temperature increase over the years may be of the other reasons for anchovy crisis observed in the late 80's. 11409,2010,2,4,RECENT OCCURRENCES OF OPAH| LAMPRIS GUTTATUS (ACTINOPTERYGII| LAMPRIFORMES| LAMPRIDAE)| IN THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA,The first records of Lampris guttatus in the Mediterranean Sea date back to 1807. Yet| until now it has been considered as a rare species (less than 25 specimens recorded in the literature). Since 2008| at least 23 specimens have been fished or observed along the French Mediterranean coast. In this paper| we present an updated review of records in the Mediterranean and discuss the possible link with the present sea water warming. We hypothesise that the recent Mediterranean specimens could come from the Atlantic| throughout the Gibraltar Strait| following a northward migration along the Northeast Atlantic coast due to present global warming. 10861,2010,3,4,Recent Trends in Porous Sound-Absorbing Materials,Sound-absorbing materials absorb most of the sound energy striking them| making them very useful for the control of noise. They are used in a variety of locations - close to sources of noise| in various paths| and sometimes close to receivers. Although all materials absorb some incident sound| the term "acoustical material" has been primarily applied to those materials that have been produced for the specific purpose of providing high values of absorption. The major uses of absorbing materials are almost invariably found to include the reduction of reverberant sound pressure levels and| consequently| the reduction of the reverberation time in enclosures| or rooms. A wide range of sound-absorbing materials exist. In the 1970s| public health concerns helped change the main constituents of sound-absorbing materials from asbestos-based materials to new synthetic fibers. Although| these new fibers are much safer for human health| more recently| issues related to global warming may increase the use of natural fibers instead of synthetic ones. 11297,2010,5,4,Reconstruction of Holocene high-altitude vegetation cover in the French southern Alps: evidence from soil charcoal,The study presented here from the southern French Alps demonstrates the reliability of soil charcoal analysis for the study of Holocene past treeline positions. The occurrence of charcoal in mineral soils along transects from 1950 m up to 2920 m demonstrates the role of fire in the establishment of the present vegetation patterns. The abrupt decrease of charcoal concentration at about 2400-2600 m (which varies across the study sites) corresponds to the modern transition between subalpine forest and alpine tundra. Charcoal particles formed in situ provide high spatial-resolution data for the reconstruction of past forest and treeline changes. Soil charcoal analysis indicated that: (1) treeline was 300 m higher around 6800 cal. BP than today; and (2) the uppermost forest belt up to 2810 m was colonized by larch (Larix decidua Mill.) and arolla pine (Pinus cembra L.). This pine is present today but patchily distributed: it is absent from the three areas studied. Radiocarbon dates| ranging from c. 6800 cal. BP to the modern period| along with historical and archaeological data| suggest that the present pattern of the uppermost forest belt| and the patchy distribution of arolla pine in the studied area are the results of anthropogenic fire (mainly agropastoral activities). The question of global warming consequences on treelines in this part of the French Alps is discussed. 10936,2010,4,4,Reconstruction of the Earth's surface temperature based on data of deep boreholes| global warming in the last millennium| and long-term solar cyclicity. Part 1. Experimental data,The most reliable pattern of climate changes is obtained using data of instrumental observations at the network of meteorological stations. However| the series of such data have short timescales (about 150 years). Indirect data from natural archives make it possible to judge specific features of climate changes in the more distant past. In contrast to indirect methods| when data are related to temperature through statistical correlations with air temperature| the borehole geothermal method makes it possible to directly determine the surface air temperature. The reconstructions of the temperature obtained using different indirect data for the Northern Hemisphere have been compared with the surface air temperature reconstructions based on the data of borehole thermometry and solar activity variations| and the possibilities of using the method in order to reconstruct long-term trends in climate changes have been indicated. 10937,2010,5,6,Reconstruction of the Earth's surface temperature based on data of deep boreholes| global warming in the last millennium| and long-term solar cyclicity. Part 2. Experimental data analysis,The effect of the natural factors (solar activity) on the long-term variations of global temperatures has been analyzed based on studying the borehole thermal regime in a time interval of 1000 years ago. It has been indicated that the temperatures started rising about 500 rather than 150 years ago as adherents of the anthropogenic impact on climate consider. The temperature maximum| the amplitude of which is larger than the present-day rise of temperature| is determined about 1000 years ago. The appearance of this maximum corresponds to the time interval of a long-term increase in solar activity according to the data of the (14)C and (10)Be cosmogenic isotopes. The stabilization of the global temperature in the last decades at a constant increase in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere contradicts the concept| according to which an increase in the global temperature in the last decades is only explained by the anthropogenic impact.
480,2010,5,4,Records of the East Asian winter monsoon from the mud area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea since the mid-Holocene,AMS(14)C dating and analysis of grain size| major elements and clay minerals were applied to Core MZ01 from the mud area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea. Based on the environmentally sensitive grain size| clay mineral and major element assemblages| the history of the East Asia winter monsoon since the mid-Holocene could be reconstructed. These three proxies| mean grain size (>9.71 mu m)| chemical index of alteration (CIA) and ratio of smectite to kaolinite in particular| show similar fluctuation patterns. Furthermore| 10 extreme values corresponding to the contemporary cooling events could be recognized since the mid-Holocene; these extreme values are likely to have been caused by the strengthening of the East Asia winter monsoon. The cooling events correlated well with the results of the delta(18)O curves of the Dunde ice core and GISP2| which therefore revealed a regional response to global climate change. Four stages of the East Asia winter monsoon were identified| i.e. 8300-6300 a BP| strong and unstable; 6300-3800 a BP| strong but stable; 3800-1400 a BP| weak and unstable; after 1400 a BP| weak but stable. 10548,2010,3,4,Recycling of automotive aluminum,With the global warming of concern| the secondary aluminum stream is becoming an even more important component of aluminum production and is attractive because of its economic and environmental benefits. In this work| recycling of automotive aluminum is reviewed to highlight environmental benefits of aluminum recycling| use of aluminum alloys in automotive applications| automotive recycling process| and new technologies in aluminum scrap process. Literature survey shows that newly developed techniques such as laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) and solid state recycling provide promising alternatives in aluminum scrap process. Compared with conventional remelting and subsequent refinement| solid state recycling utilizing compression and extrusion at room or moderate temperature can result in significant energy savings and higher metal yield. 493,2010,2,4,Red Mangrove Seedling Survival| Growth| and Reproduction: Effects of Environment and Maternal Genotype,An adequate understanding of the nature and extent of response to stressors and resources by marine foundation plant species requires study of local adaptation and plasticity in traits. Analyses of variation among genotypes in growth and morphology and genotype x environment interactions are necessary for restoration in| for example| different combinations of tide| soil| and salinity regimes| and for assessing how foundation plant species will respond to global climate change. We conducted a field experiment to assess differences in responses among 86 half-sibling (same maternal tree) seedling families of the red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) to different environmental conditions of hydrology imposed at low- and high-intertidal settings. At 3 years| Rhizophora survival and growth varied with maternal tree genotype| elevation| and genotype x elevation. This effect was independent of size of propagules at planting. Growth also differed among the five islands planted| a main effect that is a composite of a number of microenvironmental differences stemming from island size and shape| proximity to passes (and thus fetch)| and island slope. Significant genotype x island interactions for some response variables further support the hypothesis that seedlings of different maternal genotypes can perform very differently under various suites of environmental conditions. Planted seedlings reproduced at an early age| and at 3 years there were differences in reproductive output among genotypes but not an overall mean difference between plants at low or high elevation. Whether our results show adaptation to local conditions or differences in plasticity among genotypes will require further study as the plants mature further to demonstrate fitness differences. However| either adaptation or plasticity provides a basis for maintenance of Rhizophora dominance over a wider range of environmental conditions and may be important for adaptation to conditions that will vary with global climate change. 10659,2010,5,4,Reduced North Atlantic Central Water formation in response to early Holocene ice-sheet melting,Central waters of the North Atlantic are fundamental for ventilation of the upper ocean and are also linked to the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here| we show based on benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios| that during times of enhanced melting from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) between 9.0-8.5 thousand years before present (ka) the production of central waters weakened the upper AMOC resulting in a cooling over the Northern Hemisphere. Centered at 8.54 +/- 0.2 ka and 8.24 +/- 0.1 ka our dataset records two similar to 150-year cooling events in response to the drainage of Lake Agassiz/Ojibway| indicating early slow-down of the upper AMOC in response to the initial freshwater flux into the subpolar gyre (SPG) followed by a more severe weakening of both the upper and lower branches of the AMOC at 8.2 ka. These results highlight the sensitivity of regional North Atlantic climate change to the strength of central-water overturning and exemplify the impact of both gradual and abrupt freshwater fluxes on eastern SPG surface water convection. In light of the possible future increase in Greenland Ice Sheet melting due to global warming these findings may help us to better constrain and possibly predict future North Atlantic climate change. Citation: Bamberg| A.| Y. Rosenthal| A. Paul| D. Heslop| S. Mulitza| C. Ruhlemann| and M. Schulz (2010)| Reduced North Atlantic Central Water formation in response to early Holocene ice-sheet melting| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L17705| doi: 10.1029/2010GL043878. 11240,2010,3,4,Reducing Life Cycle Environmental Impacts of Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment Recycling,P>Collection and treatment of waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) is regulated in the European Union by the WEEE Directive. Producers are responsible for take-back and recycling of discarded equipment. Valuable materials are| however| at risk of "getting lost" in current processes. Thus| strategies to minimize losses are sought after. The material hygiene (MH) concept was introduced to address this issue. Structural features| which are important for the outcome of reuse| recovery| and recycling| were investigated in an earlier field study of discarded dishwashers. It was proposed that a prestep| manual removal of copper prior to shredding could increase the purity of recovered material fractions. This article builds on the field study and theoretical reasoning underlying the MH concept. Dishwashers are assumed to be designed for disassembly when the prestep is introduced. A limited life cycle assessment was performed to determine whether the proposed prestep may be environmentally beneficial in a life cycle perspective. Two alternatives were analyzed: Case 1: the current shredding process. Case 2: prestep removal of copper before shredding. Targeted disassembly prior to shredding may reduce the abiotic depletion and global warming potential in a life cycle perspective. The prestep results in increased copper recovery| but| more important| copper contamination of the recovered steel fractions is reduced. The results also highlight the importance of minimizing energy consumption in all process stages. 11375,2010,3,2,Reducing transport emissions: the simultaneous challenges of global warming and oil shortage,The use of gas for fuel transportation in Australia is proposed as an interim strategy to address a looming oil shortage crisis and to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from transport vehicles as an important response to global warming. 10431,2010,3,3,Reduction of environmental pollution through optimization of energy use in cement industries,Industrial development has lead to higher energy consumption| emission of greenhouse gases| as well as air pollutants. Cement factories play an important role in over all greenhouse emissions. This study aims to investigate the role of Iranian cement industries and their contribution of greenhouse gases contribution. The measured emission factors for oil and fuel gas shows that carbon dioxide contribution from fuel oil based cement industries is almost 2.7 times higher than gas based cement factories. The strength| weakness| opportunity and threat technique analysis showed that the best strategy to combat greenhouse gases from Iranian cement factory is to implement energy efficiency measures. Further| strategic position and action evaluation matrix analysis indicates that Iranian cement industries fall within invasive category. Therefore| exploitation of opportunities must carefully be used. One of these opportunities is the utilization of financial assistance provided by clean development mechanism. The results show that replacement of ball mills with vertical roller mill can reduce the electricity consumption from 44.6 to 28 kWh/ton. As a result of such substitution about 720 million kWh/y of electricity would be saved (almost a power plant of 125 MW capacities). Though implementation of new mills may not be economic for the cement industries' owner| but the overall gain for the government of Iran will be about US$ 304 million. If the duration of such efficiency measure is considered as about 12 y| then the overall CO(2) reduction/phase-out would be around 4.3 million tons. 11426,2010,3,4,Refrigeration plants using carbon dioxide as refrigerant: measuring and modelling the solubility and diffusion of carbon dioxide in polymers used as sealing materials,Because of increased environmental pressure| there is currently a movement away from more traditional refrigerants such as HCFC's toward refrigerants with lower global warming potential such as carbon dioxide (CO(2)). However| the use of CO(2) as a refrigerant requires a refrigeration cycle with greater extremes of pressure| placing greater demands on the polymer materials used for seals and packing. in this work we have measured the solubility and diffusivity of gaseous CO(2) in two polymers used as sealing materials in CO(2) refrigeration plants. These are Hydrogenated Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (HNBR) and Ethylene Propylene Diene Monomer (EPDM) which are used in seals such as O-rings. The experiments were performed on a high-pressure microbalance. Solubility results were modelled using an equation of state for polymers (simplified PC-SAFT). The necessary polymer parameters were obtained using a previously published method. The measured results can be successfully correlated using simplified PC-SAFT. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 10909,2010,4,4,Regional atmospheric emissions determined from measurements at Jeju Island| Korea: Halogenated compounds from China,High-frequency in-situ measurements of a wide range of halogenated compounds including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)| halons| hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)| hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)| perfluorinated compounds (PFCs)| sulfur hexafluoride (SF(6))| and other chlorinated and brominated compounds have been made at Gosan (Jeju Island| Korea). Regional emissions of HCFC-22 (CHClF(2)) calculated from inverse modeling were combined with interspecies correlation methods to estimate national emissions for China| a major emitter of industrial halogenated gases. Our results confirm the signs of successful phase-out of primary ozone-depleting species such as CFCs| halons and many chlorinated or brominated compounds| along with substantial emissions of replacement HCFCs. Emissions derived for HFCs| PFCs| and SF6 were compared to published estimates and found to be a significant fraction of global totals. Overall| Chinese emissions of the halogenated compounds discussed here represent 19(14-17)% and 20(15-26)% of global emissions when evaluated in terms of their Ozone Depletion Potentials and 100-year Global Warming Potentials| respectively. Citation: Kim| J.| et al. (2010)| Regional atmospheric emissions determined from measurements at Jeju Island| Korea: Halogenated compounds from China| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L12801| doi: 10.1029/2010GL043263. 10560,2010,2,4,Regional droughts in southern South America,From a regional inventory of monthly droughts| which was evaluated in six regions of southern South America| the seasonal occurrence of the phenomenon and its persistence together with the duration of monthly and annual sequences| extreme events| and other statistical estimates of the proposed index have been studied. In a primary analysis| it is possible to observe that regions present different behaviors regarding the duration of dry sequences| with more persistence in the Argentinean continental region. Temporal behaviors of the annual indexes have also been analyzed| in the attempt to determine any aspects of the impact of global warming. Through this analysis| the presence of long favorable tendencies regarding precipitations or the inverse of droughts occurrence are confirmed for the eastern Andes Mountains in Argentina (ARG) with its five sub-regions (Northwest Argentina-NWA| Northeast Argentina-NEA| Humid Pampa-HP| West-Centre Provinces-WC and Patagonia-PAT| and the inverse over the central region of Chile (CHI). Other climatic great-scale changes are interdecadales variations and variances explained according to ENSO. 596,2010,2,3,Regional scenarios of sea level rise and impacts on Basque (Bay of Biscay) coastal habitats| throughout the 21st century,Global climate models have predicted a rise on mean sea level of between 0.18 m and 0.59 m by the end of the 21 st Century| with high regional variability. The objectives of this study are to estimate sea level changes in the Bay of Biscay during this century| and to assess the impacts of any change on Basque coastal habitats and infrastructures. Hence| ocean temperature projections for three climate scenarios| provided by several atmosphere-ocean coupled general climate models| have been extracted for the Bay of Biscay: these are used to estimate thermosteric sea level variations. The results show that| from 2001 to 2099| sea level within the Bay of Biscay will increase by between 28.5 and 48.7 cm| as a result of regional thermal expansion and global ice-melting| under scenarios A1B and A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A high-resolution digital terrain model| extracted from LiDAR| data was used to evaluate the potential impact of the estimated sea level rise to 9 coastal and estuarine habitats: sandy beaches and muds| vegetated dunes| shingle beaches| sea cliffs and supralittoral rock| wetlands and saltmarshes| terrestrial habitats| artificial land| piers| and water surfaces. The projected sea level rise of 48.7 cm was added to the high tide level of the coast studied| to generate a flood risk map of the coastal and estuarine areas. The results indicate that 110.8 ha of the supralittoral area will be affected by the end of the 21 st Century; these are concentrated within the estuaries| with terrestrial and artificial habitats being the most affected. Sandy beaches are expected to undergo mean shoreline retreats of between 25% and 40%| of their width. The risk assessment of the areas and habitats that will be affected| as a consequence of the sea level rise| is potentially useful for local management to adopt adaptation measures to global climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10642,2010,4,4,Relation analysis between biomass and yield in maize seed production,The fact and volume of global warming in Hungary is proven by accurate meteorological measurements from the previous century. In agriculture and cultivation one should count with frequent changes of weather conditions due to climate change. Although the tendency of 0.6 degrees C raise in the annual average of temperature in the past one hundred years does not risk our cultivation so far| the high fluctuation of temperature| the winters| and the shorter transition seasons cause real problems. Similar potential threads are the decreasing trend of precipitation volume| the longer drought periods| and more frequent sudden heavy rainfalls. To provide a safe and well scheduled production| it is essential to maintain a decision support monitoring system based on up-to-date and accurate weather data. It is extraordinary needed in site-specific precision farming systems| where the aim is to produce goods of the highest quality. Nowadays| remote sensing is one of the basic instruments of continuous monitoring. Processing the collected data provides information for many fields of cultivation from technological parts to decision support processes. The survey the vegetation state of plants| a measure can be calculated from remote sensing data| the so-called normalized vegetation index (NDVI). The aim of our research is to prove that satellite records can be a useful tool for maize seed production in two aspects: first| to find correlation between the NDVI and the weather conditions of a given year| and second| to find the optimal time interval for NDVI based crop estimation method. 11017,2010,4,4,Relation between temperature changes of the mid-upper troposphere over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance in the twentieth century,The delta(18)O data obtained from an 18.7 m ice core drilled in Chongce Ice Cap at an elevation of 6|530 m a.s.l. in the West Kunlun Mountains on the northern Tibetan Plateau show a strong correlation with the summer temperature of the middle to upper troposphere over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. Based on this| the delta(18)O record can be used as a proxy of the June-September mean temperature of the mid-upper troposphere (MUT) from 1903 to 1992. The time span of the ice core record is much longer than the meteorological data available only after 1948. Using the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD)| the delta(18)O record is decomposed into various frequency components and compared with the solar irradiance variations of the same period. The results show that (1) The June-September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes is completely decomposed into four IMF (intrinsic mode function) components and an increasing trend. (2) Solar irradiance is decomposed into the Schwabe cycle| the Hale cycle| the Gleissberg cycle| and an increasing trend. (3) The correlation coefficients between the June and September mean temperatures of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance on the longer timescales (at least more than 11-year) show the significant correlations; their phase changes are basically identical in general| and (4) the 11-year Schwabe cycle exists in the June-September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes during most of the time from 1903 to 1992| and only in the two high-temperature phases (1929-1944 and from 1975 to the present) may global warming disturb this relation. A full understanding of this phenomenon would shed insight into the potential consequence of global warming on the MUT. 379,2010,5,4,Relation of Phanerozoic stable isotope excursions to climate| bacterial metabolism| and major extinctions,Conspicuous global stable carbon isotope excursions that are recorded in marine sedimentary rocks of Phanerozoic age and were associated with major extinctions have generally paralleled global stable oxygen isotope excursions. All of these phenomena are therefore likely to share a common origin through global climate change. Exceptional patterns for carbon isotope excursions resulted from massive carbon burial during warm intervals of widespread marine anoxic conditions. The many carbon isotope excursions that parallel those for oxygen isotopes can to a large degree be accounted for by the Q10 pattern of respiration for bacteria: As temperature changed along continental margins| where similar to 90% of marine carbon burial occurs today| rates of remineralization of isotopically light carbon must have changed exponentially. This would have reduced organic carbon burial during global warming and increased it during global cooling. Also contributing to the delta(13)C excursions have been release and uptake of methane by clathrates| the positive correlation between temperature and degree of fractionation of carbon isotopes by phytoplankton at temperatures below similar to 15 degrees| and increased phytoplankton productivity during "ice-house" conditions. The Q10 pattern for bacteria and climate-related changes in clathrate volume represent positive feedbacks for climate change. 10424,2010,2,4,Relationships between primary production and vertical particle export at the Atlantic-Arctic boundary (Fram Strait| HAUSGARTEN),The lack of extended dataset has so far prevented an inclusive understanding of the long-term relationships between primary production (PP) and vertical export in the Arctic Ocean. It is urgent to investigate these connections as Arctic ecosystems are on the verge of climate-related shifts| which could be caused by the combined effects of increase in Pacific and Atlantic inflow| climate warming| and sea ice decline. For a period of 6 years we investigated the degree of coupling between PP and export by making use of modelled PP rates and vertical particle fluxes collected with sediment traps moored at similar to 300 m depth in the eastern Fram Strait. Our analyses indicate that total and new simulated PP averaged for different areas centered on the mooring location (5-200 km radius) explain at best 20-44% of the observed biogenic particle fluxes at 300 m| when applying extended time-lags (55-90 days) between PP and vertical fluxes. Based on this phasing| we define a conceptual framework that presents the temporal dimension as a prime determinant of the maximum strength of the PP-export coupling at a given depth. Our results support that planktonic food webs in the Fram Strait process heavily biogenic material in the epipelagic zone| but we further suggest that Atlantic-Arctic water interactions induce a particular ecological setting responsible for the extended turn-over. In conclusion| we hypothesize that global warming could promote a transition toward a more retentive ecosystem in the Fram Strait region despite the likely increase of pelagic PP in the Arctic Ocean. 10437,2010,2,4,Relics of the Europe's warm past: Phylogeography of the Aesculapian snake,Understanding how species responded to past climate change can provide information about how they may respond to the current global warming. Here we show how a European reptile species responded to the last natural global warming event at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition that led to the Holocene climatic optimum approximately 5000-8000 years ago. The Aesculapian snake| Zamenis longissimus. is a thermophilous species whose present-day distribution in the southern half of Europe is a remnant of much wider range during the Holocene climatic optimum when populations occurred as far north as Denmark. These northern populations went extinct as the climate cooled| and presently the species is extinct from all central Europe| except few relic populations in locally suitable microhabitats in Germany and the Czech Republic. Our phylogenetic and demographic analyses identified two major clades that expanded from their respective western and eastern refugia after the last glacial maximum (18|000-23|000 years ago) and contributed approximately equally to the present range. Snakes from the relic northern populations carried the Eastern clade| showing that it was primarily the snakes from the eastern| probably Balkan| refugium that occupied the central and northern Europe during the Holocene climatic optimum. Two small| deep-branching clades were identified in near the Black Sea and in Greece. These clades provide evidence for two additional refugia| which did not successfully contribute to the colonization of Europe. If| as our results suggest| some populations responded to the mid-Holocene global warming by shifting their ranges further north than other populations of the same species| knowing what populations were able to expand in different species may provide information about what populations will be important for the species' ability to cope with the current global warming. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 11547,2010,3,2,Renewable Energies,At prevailing economic practice the alarming "two degrees-limit" of global warming will be reached long before the known fossil fuel reserves are gone. A future alternative energy economy relying on renewable energies will be more diverse yet more expensive than traditional combustion the new figure of merit is the cost of CO(2) avoidance. This communication surveys the relevant alternatives - solar energy in its various manifestations| geothermal and tidal energy - and assesses their current contribution to the over-all energy supply| revealing a deplorable lag between renewable capability and the needs of climate conservation. Nuclear energy is seen as low-CO(2) bridging technology between the fossil period and the age of renewables; being restrained in Germany in favor of subsidizing alternative energies| the German experience with renewables is drawn upon in this survey. Thermodynamics teaches: Energy can be transferred from one system to another| as from sun to earth. It can be transformed from one form into another| as from light to electricity. Energy can not be produced nor destroyed nor renewed. The term "Renewable Energy" is applied to energy derived from our surrounding for human use. Renewable energies will have to replace fossil fuels - coal| oil and gas - for two reasons: If we continue to burn them| reserves will be exhausted before long; emission of carbon dioxide is about to change our climate by the so-called green house effect. 10631,2010,3,3,Renewable energy carriers: Hydrogen or liquid air/nitrogen?,The world's energy demand is met mainly by the fossil fuels today. The use of such fuels| however| causes serious environmental issues| including global warming| ozone layer depletion and acid rains. A sustainable solution to the issues is to replace the fossil fuels with renewable ones. Implementing such a solution| however| requires overcoming a number of technological barriers including low energy density| intermittent supply and mobility of the renewable energy sources. A potential approach to overcoming these barriers is to use an appropriate energy carrier| which can store| transport and distribute energy. The work to be reported in this paper aims to assess and compare a chemical energy carrier| hydrogen| with a physical energy carrier| liquid air/nitrogen| and discuss potential applications of the physical carrier. The ocean energy is used as an example of the renewable energy sources in the work. The assessment and comparison are carried out in terms of the overall efficiency| including production| storage/transportation and energy extraction. The environmental impact| waste heat recovery and safety issues are also considered. It is found that the physical energy carrier may be a better alternative to the chemical energy carrier under some circumstances| particularly when there are waste heat sources. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11086,2010,2,4,Replacement of CTV-susceptible sour orange rootstock by CTV-tolerant ones may have triggered outbreaks of Tetranychus urticae in Spanish citrus,The two spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae Koch (Acari: Tetranychidae) is a major pest of citrus in Spain. Commercial citrus plants are always propagated asexually by bud-grafting onto a seedling rootstock. During the last 70 years| millions of citrus trees grafted on sour orange have been destroyed because of Citrus tristeza virus (CTV). Therefore other rootstocks are nowadays predominant. The aim of this study was to asses the influence of the rootstock on selected life history parameters of T. urticae. Mites were reared on leaves of Citrus unshiu trees grafted on six different rootstocks: sour orange| Troyer citrange| trifoliate orange| Volkamer lemon| Alemow and Cleopatra mandarin. Some parameters (sex ratio| egg hatching and survival) were not affected by the rootstock| whereas many other important ones were (fecundity| oviposition rate| lifespan and development time). These differences may explain the diversity found in the selected life history parameters (net fecundity| generation time and intrinsic rate of increase| r(m)). Sour orange appeared as the worst rootstock for T. urticae (r(m) = 0.140). It was closely followed by Troyer citrange and trifoliate orange (6% and 9% increase in r(m)| respectively)| then by Alemow (35.3% increase in r(m))| Volkamer lemon (77.6% increase in r(m)) and finally Cleopatra mandarin which yielded an r(m) 89.1% higher than sour orange. These results can explain| at least partially| the increasing prevalence of T. urticae as a pest in Spanish citrus orchards. Furthermore| problems could become much more severe on salt-tolerant rootstocks because of global warming| which is expected to exacerbate the threat of salinity| especially in areas with a semi-arid climate. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10513,2010,4,4,Resolution of an uncertain closed-loop logistics model: An application to fuzzy linear programs with risk analysis,With the urgency of global warming| green supply chain management| logistics in particular| has drawn the attention of researchers. Although there are closed-loop green logistics models in the literature| most of them do not consider the uncertain environment in general terms. In this study| a generalized model is proposed where the uncertainty is expressed by fuzzy numbers. An interval programming model is proposed by the defined means and mean square imprecision index obtained from the integrated information of all the level cuts of fuzzy numbers. The resolution for interval programming is based on the decision maker (DM)'s preference. The resulting solution provides useful information on the expected solutions under a confidence level containing a degree of risk. The results suggest that the more optimistic the DM is| the better is the resulting solution. However| a higher risk of violation of the resource constraints is also present. By defining this probable risk| a solution procedure was developed with numerical illustrations. This provides a DM trade-off mechanism between logistic cost and the risk. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10521,2010,2,4,Resource quantity and seasonal background alter warming effects on communities of biofilm ciliates,The impacts of experimental warming on field-related communities of biofilm ciliates were studied in contrasting seasons (winter vs. summer)| which incorporated both different species sets and environmental background conditions. The biofilms for the experiments were cultivated in river bypass systems that were exposed to increasing temperatures based on the ambient river temperature. Opposing effects of warming were observed for ciliate 'summer' and 'winter' communities. While winter warming resulted in both stimulation (abundance and biomass) of the ciliate communities and significant shifts in the community structure| summer warming induced a significant decline in the ciliate biomass| but did not affect the relative community composition. By the simultaneous manipulation of temperature and resource density in summer| it was demonstrated that negative warming effects on the ciliate quantity during summer could be compensated by increasing the availability of food. Taken together| our results indicate that the responses of ciliate communities towards warming are strongly coupled to the availability of resources| and that the strongest impacts of environmental warming should thus be expected in resource-rich environments. 10756,2010,5,4,Response of coral reefs to climate change: Expansion and demise of the southernmost Pacific coral reef,Coral reefs track sea level and are particularly sensitive to changes in climate. Reefs are threatened by global warming| with many experiencing increased coral bleaching. Warmer sea surface temperatures might enable reef expansion into mid latitudes. Here we report multibeam sonar and coring that reveal an extensive relict coral reef around Lord Howe Island| which is fringed by the southernmost reef in the Pacific Ocean. The relict reef| in water depths of 25-50 m| flourished in early Holocene and covered an area more than 20 times larger than the modern reef. Radiocarbon and uranium-series dating indicates that corals grew between 9000 and 7000 years ago. The reef was subsequently drowned| and backstepped to its modern limited extent. This relict reef| with localised re-establishment of corals in the past three millennia| could become a substrate for reef expansion in response to warmer temperatures| anticipated later this century and beyond| if corals are able to recolonise its surface. Citation: Woodroffe| C. D.| B. P. Brooke| M. Linklater| D. M. Kennedy| B. G. Jones| C. Buchanan| R. Mleczko| Q. Hua| and J. Zhao (2010)| Response of coral reefs to climate change: Expansion and demise of the southernmost Pacific coral reef| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L15602| doi: 10.1029/2010GL044067. 10862,2010,2,4,Response of endophytic fungi of Stipa grandis to experimental plant function group removal in Inner Mongolia steppe| China,Endophytic fungi associated with Stipa grandis in the Inner Mongolia steppe were investigated. Thirty-four fungal taxa were identified from plant tissues obtained in four treatments where different plant functional groups were removed. Nine taxa were obtained from leaves and 25 from roots; and no taxa occurred in both leaves and roots. Colonization rates were significantly higher in roots than in leaves. This finding differs from most previous studies and may be due to the small size of the leaves which grow annually| as compared to the roots which persist from year to year under the ground. Alternaria sp. 1 and Pyrenophora sp.| both isolated from leaves| were the dominant species in the four treatments. Fusarium redolens was dominant in the roots in treatments I and II| and Phialophora sp. was dominant in treatments III and IV. Horizontal transmission of endophytes may occur between the same and different grass species. This would normally occur through the roots| again accounting for the higher diversity. The results suggest that surrounding plant diversity or plant composition can affect endophyte communities of S. grandis. If endophyte communities alter with change of functional plant groups| then this is likely to affect the dynamics of ecosystem functioning. Global warming and human activities can increase species extinction| therefore| if some functional groups disappear| then the fungi communities will also change. 10994,2010,2,4,Response of faults to climate-driven changes in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface,Numerical models including one or more faults in a rheologically stratified lithosphere show that climate-induced variations in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface considerably affect the slip evolution of both thrust and normal faults. In general| the slip rate and hence the seismicity of a fault decreases during loading and increases during unloading. Here| we present several case studies to show that a postglacial slip rate increase occurred on faults worldwide in regions where ice caps and lakes decayed at the end of the last glaciation. Of note is that the postglacial amplification of seismicity was not restricted to the areas beneath the large Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets but also occurred in regions affected by smaller ice caps or lakes| e. g. the Basin-and-Range Province. Our results do not only have important consequences for the interpretation of palaeoseismological records from faults in these regions but also for the evaluation of the future seismicity in regions currently affected by deglaciation like Greenland and Antarctica: shrinkage of the modern ice sheets owing to global warming may ultimately lead to an increase in earthquake frequency in these regions. 11352,2010,2,4,Response of ocean phytoplankton community structure to climate change over the 21st century: partitioning the effects of nutrients| temperature and light,The response of ocean phytoplankton community structure to climate change depends| among other factors| upon species competition for nutrients and light| as well as the increase in surface ocean temperature. We propose an analytical framework linking changes in nutrients| temperature and light with changes in phytoplankton growth rates| and we assess our theoretical considerations against model projections (1980-2100) from a global Earth System model. Our proposed "critical nutrient hypothesis" stipulates the existence of a critical nutrient threshold below (above) which a nutrient change will affect small phytoplankton biomass more (less) than diatom biomass| i.e. the phytoplankton with lower half-saturation coefficient K are influenced more strongly in low nutrient environments. This nutrient threshold broadly corresponds to 45 degrees S and 45 degrees N| poleward of which high vertical mixing and inefficient biology maintain higher surface nutrient concentrations and equatorward of which reduced vertical mixing and more efficient biology maintain lower surface nutrients. In the 45 degrees S 45 degrees N low nutrient region| decreases in limiting nutrients associated with increased stratification under climate change - are predicted analytically to decrease more strongly the specific growth of small phytoplankton than the growth of diatoms. In high latitudes| the impact of nutrient decrease on phytoplankton biomass is more significant for diatoms than small phytoplankton| and contributes to diatom declines in the northern marginal sea ice and subpolar biomes. In the context of our model| climate driven increases in sur-face temperature and changes in light are predicted to have a stronger impact on small phytoplankton than on diatom biomass in all ocean domains. Our analytical predictions explain reasonably well the shifts in community structure under a modeled climate-warming scenario. Climate driven changes in nutrients| temperature and light have regionally varying and sometimes counterbalancing impacts on phytoplankton biomass and structure| with nutrients and temperature dominant in the 45 degrees S 45 degrees N band and light-temperature effects dominant in the marginal sea-ice and subpolar regions. As predicted| decreases in nutrients inside the 45 degrees S 45 degrees N "critical nutrient" band result in diatom biomass decreasing more than small phytoplankton biomass. Further stratification from global warming could result in geographical shifts in the "critical nutrient" threshold and additional changes in ecology. 10504,2010,2,4,RESPONSE OF RED ABALONE REPRODUCTION TO WARM WATER| STARVATION| AND DISEASE STRESSORS: IMPLICATIONS OF OCEAN WARMING,Changes in ocean temperature can have direct and indirect effects on the population dynamics of marine invertebrates. We examined the impacts of warn water| starvation| and disease on reproduction in red abalone (Haliotis rufescens). We found that sperm production was highly sensitive to warm water and starvation| suggesting there may be a dramatic temperature threshold above which sperm production fails. Wild males from northern (72%) and southern (81%) California had sperm. In contrast| only 30% of the males exposed to warm water (18 degrees C) for 6 mo or starvation for 13 mo had sperm| with spermatogenesis dropping dramatically from 300|000 presperm cells/mm(3) (wild) to 46|000 presperm cells/mm(3) (warm water) and 84|000 presperm cells/mm(3) (starvation). In a longer warm-water experiment (12 mo)| males had total reproductive failure in temperatures greater than 16 degrees C| irrespective of food treatment. Egg production was less sensitive to warm water| but was impacted more by starvation| especially food quantity relative to quality. Wild females from northern (97%) and southern (100%) California had mature oocytes averaging 3 million eggs and 21 million eggs| respectively. Females exposed to 18 degrees C water for 6 mo had diminished fecundity| averaging only 400|000 mature eggs whereas females in the starvation experiment did not produce any mature eggs. Normal sperm and egg production was found in abalone testing positive for Rickettsiales-like-prokaryote (12 LP)| the agent of Withering Syndrome in cool water. However| abalone with RLP also exposed to warm water developed the disease withering syndrome and did not produce any mature gametes. The temperature-mediated lethal and sublethal effects on red abalone reproduction described here| combined with temperature's known impacts on abalone growth| kelp abundance| and disease status| clearly demonstrate population-level consequences. We suggest that temperature needs to be explicitly incorporated into red abalone recovery and management planning| because California's ocean has warmed and is predicted to warm in the future. 10466,2010,2,4,Response of runoff in the headwater region of the Yellow River to climate change and its sensitivity analysis,Response of the runoff in the headwater region of the Yellow River to climate change and its sensibility are analyzed based on the measured data at the four hydrological stations and ten weather stations during the period 1959-2008. The result indicates that change of temperature in the region has an obvious corresponding relationship with global warming and the changes of annual average temperature in each subregion in the region have been presenting a fluctuant and rising state in the past 50 years. However the change of precipitation is more intricate than the change of temperature in the region because of the influences of the different geographical positions and environments in various areas| and the change of annual precipitation in the main runoff-producing area has been presenting a fluctuant and decreasing state in the past 50 years. And there is a remarkable nonlinear correlativity between runoff and precipitation and temperature in the region. The runoff in the region has been decreasing continuously since 1990 because the precipitation in the main runoff-producing area obviously decreases and the annual average temperature continuously rises. As a whole| the runoff in each subregion of the headwater region of the Yellow River is quite sensitive to precipitation change| while the runoff in the subregion above Jimai is more sensitive to temperature change than that in the others in the region| correspondingly. 10578,2010,2,4,Response of runoff in the source region of the Yellow River to climate warming,The changing characteristics of temperature| precipitation and runoff in the source region of the Yellow River above Tangnag station were analyzed by using hydrological and meteorological data from the past 50 years. The evolving trend of runoff in the future decades is forecasted based on the method of suppositional climate scenarios. The results indicate temperature variation in the region has an evident positive relation with global warming. Precipitation variations are quite intricate in the region at various geographic positions. Runoff in the region has been decreasing continually since the end of the 1980s. because the mean temperature in the region has been rising and precipitation in the main areas of runoff formation in the region has been decreasing. The increased magnitude of runoff may be more than that of precipitation because of the synchronously increasing supply of meltwater from snow| glacier| and frozen soils in future several decades. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 10627,2010,2,4,Response of Southern Ocean circulation to global warming may enhance basal ice shelf melting around Antarctica,We investigate the large-scale oceanic features determining the future ice shelf-ocean interaction by analyzing global warming experiments in a coarse resolution climate model with a comprehensive ocean component. Heat and freshwater fluxes from basal ice shelf melting (ISM) are parameterized following Beckmann and Goosse [Ocean Model 5(2):157-170| 2003]. Melting sensitivities to the oceanic temperature outside of the ice shelf cavities are varied from linear to quadratic (Holland et al. in J Clim 21| 2008). In 1% per year CO(2)-increase experiments the total freshwater flux from ISM triples to 0.09 Sv in the linear case and more than quadruples to 0.15 Sv in the quadratic case after 140 years at which 4 x 280 ppm = 1|120 ppm was reached. Due to the long response time of subsurface temperature anomalies| ISM thereafter increases drastically| if CO(2) concentrations are kept constant at 1|120 ppm. Varying strength of the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) is crucial for ISM increase| because southward advection of heat dominates the warming along the Antarctic coast. On centennial timescales the ACC accelerates due to deep ocean warming north of the current| caused by mixing of heat along isopycnals in the Southern Ocean (SO) outcropping regions. In contrast to previous studies we find an initial weakening of the ACC during the first 150 years of warming. This purely baroclinic effect is due to a freshening in the SO which is consistent with present observations. Comparison with simulations with diagnosed ISM but without its influence on the ocean circulation reveal a number of ISM-related feedbacks| of which a negative ISM-feedback| due to the ISM-related local oceanic cooling| is the dominant one. 11180,2010,4,4,Response of the starting dates and the lengths of seasons in Mainland China to global warming,The climatic seasons in China| defined by station-specific daily temperature measures| have changed substantially during the past decades. In the majority of the country| the length of summer has extended and the length of winter has shortened since the 1950s. These changes in the lengths of seasons are linked to the changes in the starting dates of seasons. Namely| the starting date of summer has advanced and the starting date of winter has shifted back. Averaged across the whole country| the starting date of summer has been brought forward by 5.8 days and the season has extended 9 days. On the other hand| the starting date of winter has been delayed by 5.6 days and the season has shortened by 11 days. The changes for spring and fall are relatively smaller. Particularly| spring has started earlier by 5.7 days but shortened by 0.3 day| and fall has started later by 3.2 days but lengthened by 2.3 days. The changes in seasons exhibit apparent regional differences. They are more significant in the north than in the south where the trend of some local changes in seasons is opposite to that of the rest of the country. 11228,2010,2,3,Response of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity to a Global Warming Scenario in the IPCC AR4 CGCMs,This paper reports on an analysis of the tropical cyclone (TC) potential intensity (PI) and its control parameters in transient global warming simulations. Specifically| the TC PI is calculated for phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) integrations during the first 70 yr of a transient run forced by a 1% yr(-1) CO(2) increase. The linear trend over the period is used to project a 70-yr change in relevant model parameters. The results for a 15-model ensemble-mean climate projection show that the thermodynamic potential intensity (THPI) increases on average by 1.0% to; 3.1% over various TC basins| which is mainly attributed to changes in the disequilibrium in enthalpy between the ocean and atmosphere in the transient response to increasing CO(2) concentrations. This modest projected increase in THPI is consistent with that found in other recent studies. In this paper the effects of evolving large-scale dynamical factors on the projected TC PI are also quantified| using an empirical formation that takes into account the effects of vertical shear and translational speed based on a statistical analysis of present-day observations. Including the dynamical efficiency in the formulation of PI leads to larger projected changes in PI relative to that obtained using just THPI in some basins and smaller projected changes in others. The inclusion of the dynamical efficiency has the largest relative effect in the main development region (MDR) of the North Atlantic| where it leads to a 50% reduction in the projected PI change. Results are also presented for the basin-averaged changes in PI for the climate projections from each of the 15 individual models. There is considerable variation among the results for individual model projections| and for some models the projected increase in PI in the eastern Pacific and south Indian Ocean regions exceeds 10%. 11390,2010,2,4,Responses of reference evapotranspiration to changes in atmospheric humidity and air temperature in Spain,We studied the sensitivity of reference evapotranspiration (ET(o)) to global warming in Spain at the end of the 21st century. The FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation was used to estimate ET(o)| and we examined the sensitivity of the latter to changes in temperature and relative humidity. Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increased CO(2) concentration were not evaluated| nor were the changes in wind velocity and solar radiation. Different scenarios were used for estimation of future ET(o) in different river basins as a consequence of trends in the maximum and minimum temperatures and maximum and minimum humidities during the period 1973-2002| as observed from 38 meteorological stations. The temperature increases ranged between 0.3 and 0.7 degrees C decade(-1)| and the relative humidities fluctuated between 0.1 and -3.7% decade(-1). Four scenarios were simulated that considered the variations in linear tendency of the maximum and minimum temperatures and maximum and minimum relative humidities. The trends of the 4 scenarios were incorporated with the data from 338 agrometeorological stations to estimate future ET(o). In all cases| there was an annual increase in ET(o) of 11| 21| 36 and 7% above the annual ET(o) (1196 mm) for Scenarios 0| 1| 2 and 3| respectively. The river basin most affected by these changes was the Ebro River valley. The most affected months were May| June| July and August| while the least affected months were November| December and January. 661,2010,2,4,Responses of soil respiration to elevated carbon dioxide and nitrogen addition in young subtropical forest ecosystems in China,Global climate change in the real world always exhibits simultaneous changes in multiple factors. Prediction of ecosystem responses to multi-factor global changes in a future world strongly relies on our understanding of their interactions. However| it is still unclear how nitrogen (N) deposition and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO(2)] would interactively influence forest floor soil respiration in subtropical China. We assessed the main and interactive effects of elevated [CO(2)] and N addition on soil respiration by growing tree seedlings in ten large open-top chambers under CO(2) (ambient CO(2) and 700 mu mol mol(-1)) and nitrogen (ambient and 100 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)) treatments. Soil respiration| soil temperature and soil moisture were measured for 30 months| as well as above-ground biomass| root biomass and soil organic matter (SOM). Results showed that soil respiration displayed strong seasonal patterns with higher values observed in the wet season (April-September) and lower values in the dry season (October-March) in all treatments. Significant exponential relationships between soil respiration rates and soil temperatures| as well as significant linear relationships between soil respiration rates and soil moistures (below 15%) were found. Both CO(2) and N treatments significantly affected soil respiration| and there was significant interaction between elevated [CO(2)] and N addition (p < 0.001| p=0.003| and p=0.006| respectively). We also observed that the stimulatory effect of individual elevated [CO(2)] (about 29% increased) was maintained throughout the experimental period. The positive effect of N addition was found only in 2006 (8.17% increased)| and then had been weakened over time. Their combined effect on soil respiration (about 50% increased) was greater than the impact of either one alone. Mean value of annual soil respiration was 5.32 +/- 0.08| 4.54 +/- 0.10| 3.56 +/- 0.03 and 3.53 +/- 0.03 kg CO(2) m(-2) yr(-1) in the chambers exposed to elevated [CO(2)] and high N deposition (CN)| elevated [CO(2)] and ambient N deposition (CC)| ambient [CO(2)] and high N deposition (NN)| and ambient [CO(2)] and ambient N deposition (CK as a control)| respectively. Greater above-ground biomass and root biomass was obtained in the CN| CC and NN treatments| and higher soil organic matter was observed only in the CN treatment. In conclusion| the combined effect of elevated [CO(2)] and N addition on soil respiration was apparent interaction. They should be evaluated in combination in subtropical forest ecosystems in China where the atmospheric CO(2) and N deposition have been increasing simultaneously and remarkably. 431,2010,2,4,Restoring Ecological Function to a Submerged Salt Marsh,Impacts of global climate change| such as sea level rise and severe drought| have altered the hydrology of coastal salt marshes resulting in submergence and subsequent degradation of ecosystem function. A potential method of rehabilitating these systems is the addition of sediment-slurries to increase marsh surface elevation| thus ameliorating effects of excessive inundation. Although this technique is growing in popularity| the restoration of ecological function after sediment addition has received little attention. To determine if sediment subsidized salt marshes are functionally equivalent to natural marshes| we examined above- and belowground primary production in replicated restored marshes receiving four levels of sediment addition (29-42 cm North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [NAVD 88]) and in degraded and natural ambient marshes (4-22 cm NAVD 88). Moderate intensities of sediment-slurry addition| resulting in elevations at the mid to high intertidal zone (29-36 cm NAVD 88)| restored ecological function to degraded salt marshes. Sediment additions significantly decreased flood duration and frequency and increased bulk density| resulting in greater soil drainage and redox potential and significantly lower phytotoxic sulfide concentrations. However| ecological function in the restored salt marsh showed a sediment addition threshold that was characterized by a decline in primary productivity in areas of excessive sediment addition and high elevation (> 36 cm NAVD 88). Hence| the addition of intermediate levels of sediment to submerging salt marshes increased marsh surface elevation| ameliorated impacts of prolonged inundation| and increased primary productivity. However| too much sediment resulted in diminished ecological function that was equivalent to the submerged or degraded system. 606,2010,2,4,Restricted dispersal and genetic diversity in populations of an endangered montane lizard (Eulamprus leuraensis| Scincidae),Many alpine species are under threat from global climate change| as their geographic ranges become increasingly fragmented and unsuitable. Understanding rates and determinants of gene flow among such fragmented populations| over historical as well as recent timescales| can help to identify populations under threat. It is also important to clarify the degree to which loss of local populations reduces overall genetic diversity within the taxon. The endangered Blue Mountains Water Skink (Eulamprus leuraensis) is restricted to < 40 small swamps in montane south-eastern Australia. Our analyses of seven microsatellite loci of 241 animals from 13 populations show strong geographic structure| with major genetic divergence even between populations separated by < 0.5 km. Dispersal between populations is scarce| and appears to involve mostly males. Our analyses suggest potential recent bottleneck events in all the identified populations| and lower genetic diversity and population size parameter at lower-elevation sites than at higher-elevation sites. Management of this endangered taxon thus needs to treat most populations separately| because of their genetic distinctiveness and low rates of genetic exchange. 10744,2010,2,4,Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures,Data from farmer-managed fields have not been used previously to disentangle the impacts of daily minimum and maximum temperatures and solar radiation on rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia. We used a multiple regression model to analyze data from 227 intensively managed irrigated rice farms in six important rice-producing countries. The farm-level detail| observed over multiple growing seasons| enabled us to construct farm-specific weather variables| control for unobserved factors that either were unique to each farm but did not vary over time or were common to all farms at a given site but varied by season and year| and obtain more precise estimates by including farm-and site-specific economic variables. Temperature and radiation had statistically significant impacts during both the vegetative and ripening phases of the rice plant. Higher minimum temperature reduced yield| whereas higher maximum temperature raised it; radiation impact varied by growth phase. Combined| these effects imply that yield at most sites would have grown more rapidly during the high-yielding season but less rapidly during the low-yielding season if observed temperature and radiation trends at the end of the 20th century had not occurred| with temperature trends being more influential. Looking ahead| they imply a net negative impact on yield from moderate warming in coming decades. Beyond that| the impact would likely become more negative| because prior research indicates that the impact of maximum temperature becomes negative at higher levels. Diurnal temperature variation must be considered when investigating the impacts of climate change on irrigated rice in Asia. 10516,2010,2,4,Rising stream and river temperatures in the United States,Water temperatures are increasing in many streams and rivers throughout the US. We analyzed historical records from 40 sites and found that 20 major streams and rivers have shown statistically significant| long-term warming. Annual mean water temperatures increased by 0.009-0.077 degrees C yr(-1)| and rates of warming were most rapid in| but not confined to| urbanizing areas. Long-term increases in stream water temperatures were typically correlated with increases in air temperatures. If stream temperatures were to continue to increase at current rates| due to global warming and urbanization| this could have important effects on eutrophication| ecosystem processes such as biological productivity and stream metabolism| contaminant toxicity| and loss of aquatic biodiversity. 445,2010,2,4,Role of groundwater in watershed response and land surface feedbacks under climate change,We use an integrated| distributed groundwater-surface water-land surface model| ParFlow| to analyze integrated watershed response and groundwater-land surface feedbacks in the Little Washita River watershed| located within the southern Great Plains region of North America| under observed and perturbed climate conditions. Basin-scale hydrologic sensitivity to temperature and precipitation perturbations is shown to be greatest under energy-limited (direct runoff) conditions compared to moisture-limited (base flow) conditions. Feedbacks between groundwater depth and the land surface water and energy balance are shown to significantly influence surface fluxes under moisture-limited conditions| with differences in latent and sensible heat flux between areas of shallow and deep groundwater depth exceeding 75 W/m(2) under strongly energy-limited conditions. The influence of groundwater feedbacks on sensitivity of surface fluxes to changing climate conditions is shown to depend on changes in both moisture and energy availability over the watershed. Results demonstrate that hydrologic sensitivity to climate change depends on feedbacks between groundwater| overland flow| and the land surface water and energy balance. Results suggest not only that local and watershed response to global climate change depends on groundwater feedbacks but that the magnitude and seasonality of these feedbacks is sensitive to changes in climate. 11204,2010,3,4,Role of nuclear energy to a future society of shortage of energy resources and global warming,Human society entered into the society of large energy consumption since the industrial revolution and consumes more than 10 billion tons of oil equivalent energy a year in the world in the present time| in which over 80% is provided by fossil fuels such as coal| oil and natural gas. Total energy consumption is foreseen to increase year by year from now on due to significant economical and population growth in the developing countries such as China and India. However| fossil fuel resources are limited with conventional crude|oil estimated to last about 40 years| and it is said that the peak oil production time has come now. On the other hand| global warming due to green house gases (GHG) emissions| especially carbon dioxide| has become a serious issue. Nuclear energy plays an important role as means to resolve energy security and global warming issues. Four hundred twenty-nine nuclear power plants are operating world widely producing 16% of the total electric power with total plant capacity of 386 GWe without emission of CO(2) as of 2006. It is estimated that another 250 GWe nuclear power is needed to keep the same level contribution of electricity generation in 2030. On the other hand| the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) developed the very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) named high temperature gas-cooled engineering test reactor (HTTR) and carbon free hydrogen production process (IS process). Nuclear energy utilization will surely widen in| not only electricity generation| but also various industries such as steel making| chemical industries| together with hydrogen production for transportation by introduction of HTGRs. The details of development of the HTTR and IS process are also described. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10880,2010,2,4,Role of Polar Amplification in Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Variations and Modern Arctic Warming,This study uses an extensive dataset of monthly surface air temperature (SAT) records (including previously unutilized) from high-latitude (>60 degrees N) meteorological land stations. Most records have been updated by very recent observations (up to December 2008). Using these data| a high-latitude warming rate of 1.36 degrees C century(-1) is documented for 1875-2008-the trend is almost 2 times stronger than the Northern Hemisphere trend (0.79 degrees C century(-1))| with an accelerated warming rate in the most recent decade (1.35 degrees C decade(-1)). Stronger warming in high-latitude regions is a manifestation of polar amplification (PA). Changes in SAT suggest two spatial scales of PA-hemispheric and local. A new stable statistical measure of PA linking high-latitude and hemispheric temperature anomalies via a regression relationship is proposed. For 1875-2008| this measure yields PA of similar to 1.62. Local PA related to the ice-albedo feedback mechanisms is autumnal and coastal| extending several hundred kilometers inland. Heat budget estimates suggest that a recent reduction of arctic ice and anomalously high SATs cannot be explained by ice-albedo feedback mechanisms alone| and the role of large-scale mechanisms of PA of global warming should not be overlooked. 10841,2010,3,3,Role of sunshades in space as a climate control option,Placing reflectors in the stratosphere or in higher-altitude space to shade sunlight is expected to be a promising geoengineering option for use as a countermeasure against climate change. While the sunshade technology has been evaluated from earth-scientific viewpoints| no study has evaluated when and on what scale it can be deployed from a cost-effectiveness viewpoint| presuming that it is used in combination with CO(2) abatement options as a pillar of the mitigation of climatic change. Nor have the contributions of geoengineering research and development to the economics of overall climate control measures been evaluated. Such evaluations are attempted in this study| which focuses on a space-based sunshade technology. As a result| it is recommended that radiative forcing be reduced by 0.8 W/m(2) through the sunshades over a period of approximately a century from the latter half of the 21st century. In this case| an increase in global CO(2) emissions by some 15% is allowed in the former half of the 21st century| and the total climate control cost is reducible by 240 billion constant 2005 US$ on a present value basis compared to the case in which the sunshades are unavailable. To enjoy the above advantages| the mass of the sunshade stock required to offset the increase in radiative forcing due to a doubling of the atmospheric CO(2) concentration should be lower than 100 Mt/2xCO(2) assuming a continuous decline in the cost of placing (space-launching) sunshades from 6000 to 1000 US$/kg over a half-century. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10814,2010,2,2,Role of synoptic eddy feedback on polar climate responses to the anthropogenic forcing,Amplified polar warming and moistening under global warming are critical issues for the climate changes. The authors find that a poleward shift of the westerly jet stream and associated synoptic eddy feedback play a critical role in enhancing polar warming and moistening. Namely| the mean circulation changes due to anthropogenic forcing lead to the changes in storm feedbacks| which reinforce again climate responses| particularly the polar responses such as the enhanced polar warming and moistening. It is demonstrated here that the storm feedback can be explained by a simple rule based on the mean circulation change. This rule can be used for understanding other regional climate responses to the anthropogenic forcing. Citation: Kug| J.-S.| D.-H. Choi| F.-F. Jin| W.-T. Kwon| and H.-L. Ren (2010)| Role of synoptic eddy feedback on polar climate responses to the anthropogenic forcing| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L14704| doi:10.1029/2010GL043673. 10779,2010,2,3,Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming,The response of El Nio and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variability to global warming varies comparatively between the two different climate system models| i.e.| the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Here| we examine the role of the simulated upper ocean temperature structure in the different sensitivities of the simulated ENSO variability in the models based on the different level of CO(2) concentrations. In the MRI model| the sea surface temperature (SST) undergoes a rather drastic modification| namely a tendency toward a permanent El Nio-like state. This is associated with an enhanced stratification which results in greater ENSO amplitude for the MRI model. On the other hand| the ENSO simulated by GFDL model is hardly modified although the mean temperature in the near surface layer increases. In order to understand the associated mechanisms we carry out a vertical mode decomposition of the mean equatorial stratification and a simplified heat balance analysis using an intermediate tropical Pacific model tuned from the CGCM outputs. It is found that in the MRI model the increased stratification is associated with an enhancement of the zonal advective feedback and the non-linear advection. In the GFDL model| on the other hand| the thermocline variability and associated anomalous vertical advection are reduced in the eastern equatorial Pacific under global warming| which erodes the thermocline feedback and explains why the ENSO amplitude is reduced in a warmer climate in this model. It is suggested that change in stratification associated with global warming impacts the equatorial wave dynamics in a way that enhances the second baroclinic mode over the gravest one| which leads to the change in feedback processes in the CGCMs. Our results illustrate that the upper ocean vertical structure simulated in the CGCMs is a key parameter of the sensitivity of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming. 11412,2010,2,4,Runoff and mass-balance simulations from the Greenland Ice Sheet at Kangerlussuaq (Sondre Stromfjord) in a 30-year perspective| 1979-2008,This study provides insights into surface mass-balance (SMB) and runoff exiting the Watson River drainage basin| Kangerlussuaq| West Greenland during a 30 year period (1978/1979-2007/2008) when the climate experienced increasing temperatures and precipitation. The 30-year simulations quantify the terrestrial freshwater output from part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the land between the GrIS and the ocean| in the context of global warming and increasing GrIS surface melt. We used a snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to simulate the winter accumulation and summer ablation processes| including runoff and SMB| of the ice sheet: indicating that the simulated equilibrium line altitude (ELA) was in accordance with independent observations. To a large extent| the SMB fluctuations could be explained by changes in net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation and sublimation)| with 8 out of 30 years having negative SMB| mainly because of relatively low annual net precipitation. The overall trend in net precipitation and runoff increased significantly| while SMB increased insignificantly throughout the simulation period| leading to enhanced precipitation of 0.59 km(3) w.eq. (or similar to 60%)| runoff of 0.43 km(3) w.eq. (or similar to 55%)| and SMB of 0.16 km(3) w.eq. (or similar to 85%). Runoff rose on average from 0.80 km(3) w.eq. in 1978/1979 to 1.23 km(3) w.eq. in 2007/2008. The GrIS satellite-derived melt-extent increased significantly| and the melting intensification occurred simultaneously with the increase in local Kangerlussuaq runoff| indicating that satellite data can be used as a proxy (r(2)=0.64) for runoff from the Kangerlussuaq drainage area. 10817,2010,2,4,Sahara Slide: Age| initiation| and processes of a giant submarine slide,The Sahara Slide is a giant submarine landslide on the northwest African continental margin. The landslide is located on the open continental slope offshore arid Western Sahara| with a headwall at a water depth of similar to 2000 m. High primary productivity in surface waters drives accumulation of thick fine-grained pelagic/hemipelagic sediment sequences in the slide source area. Rare but large-scale slope failures| such as the Sahara Slide that remobilized approximately 600 km(3) of sediment| are characteristic of this sedimentological setting. Seismic profiles collected from the slide scar reveal a stepped profile with two 100 m high headwalls| suggesting that the slide occurred retrogressively as a slab-type failure. Sediment cores recovered from the slide deposit provide new insights into the process by which the slide eroded and entrained a volcaniclastic sand layer. When this layer was entrained at the base of the slide it became fluidized and resulted in low apparent friction| facilitating the exceptionally long runout of similar to 900 km. The slide location appears to be controlled by the buried headwall of an older slope failure| and we suggest that the cause of the slide relates to differential sedimentation rates and compaction across these scarps| leading to local increases of pore pressure. Sediment cores yield a date of 50-60 ka for the main slide event| a period of global sea level rise which may have contributed to pore pressure buildup. The link with sea level rising is consistent with other submarine landslides on this margin| drawing attention to this potential hazard during global warming. 10767,2010,3,4,Saving energy by using underfloor-air-distribution (UFAD) system in commercial buildings,The number of attempts by researchers to reduce building energy consumption has increased| ever since global warming became a serious issue. In this trend| a relatively new approach of air distribution| underfloor-air-distribution system (UFAD)| has been widely used in new commercial buildings. This technique is simply accomplished by supplying air through a raised floor using different types of distribution configurations and outlets. In UFAD| the air is directly supplied to the occupants' area (occupied zone) causing occupants plumes and zone heat load stratify to the upper layer of the zone (unoccupied zone)| which are later extracted from return points at high level. This flow pattern gives UFAD the advantage of using less energy than a conventional air-distribution system| ceiling-based air distribution (CBAD) due to lower pressure drop and lower air flow rate. This paper investigates the effectiveness of UFAD systems in commercial buildings for various types of application and at different air supply temperatures in a hot climate (The State of Kuwait). The findings show that UFAD has a significant saving of energy compared to CBAD (similar to 30%); in particular with high ceiling building types| as well as providing satisfactory comfort conditions for the occupants. Ultimately| more investigations should be done on conventional building heights (offices) to optimize the utilization of thermal stratification at design and operation stages. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 438,2010,2,3,Scale effect of climate on soil organic carbon in the Uplands of Northeast China,Purpose Climate factors| considered significant factors in regulating soil organic carbon (SOC)| are not equally important at all spatial scales. However| the scale which provides the optimal relationship between climate and SOC and how that relationship varies at multiple scales are still unclear. Thus| it is crucial to study the relationship between climate factors and SOC at multiple scales when attempting to accurately predict the SOC pool and evaluate the influence of climate change on global carbon cycling. The objective of this research is to examine the scale effect of climate factors on SOC content in the Uplands of Northeast China. Materials and methods The relationship between climate factors and SOC content at the regional| provincial| city| and county scales was evaluated at 0-20 and 0-100 cm using correlation and regression analysis. Data for the study in the Uplands of Northeast China were examined using 1|022 profiles obtained from the Second National Soil Survey of China. A nested sampling scheme was adopted at four scales for this research. Results and discussion Differences exist in the degree of correlation and relative importance of temperature and precipitation at different scales. Temperature is the main climate factor controlling SOC content at the regional scale. At the provincial scale| temperature is also the main climate factor controlling SOC content in the Uplands of Heilongjiang and Eastern Inner Mongolia. SOC content in Jilin and Liaoning is influenced jointly by temperature and precipitation. Additionally| obvious regional differences occurred in the relationship between climate factors and SOC content at the provincial scale. Although this scale differs from those by other researchers| similar results have been reported in China| Spain| and the USA. The reasons might be attributed to the differences in soil type| ecosystem| and topographic position. At both the city and county scales| weak or no relation was observed between climate factors and SOC content. Climate factors have limited ability to explain SOC content variability given that SOC is affected by multiple factors which were not taken into account by this research. Therefore| multiple scales should be considered when the feedback relationship between global climate change and SOC content is studied. Conclusions The relationship between climate factors and SOC content weakens with decreasing scale| especially from the provincial to city scale. The main climate factors controlling SOC content vary with different scales. The provincial scale is optimal for studying the relationship between climate factors and SOC content in the Uplands of Northeast China. Seasonal change of temperature and precipitation may also influence SOC. Thus| it is necessary to consider climate factors at multiple timescales. Moreover| further studies focusing on the scale effect of other factors (including climate) on SOC content variability will be carried out at different scales to determine the main factors controlling SOC content. 10658,2010,2,4,Scaling of tropical-cyclone dissipation,The influence of climate variability and global warming on the occurrence of tropical cyclones is a controversial issue(1-10). Existing historical databases on the subject are not fully reliable(9|11-13)| but a more fundamental hindrance is the lack of basic understanding regarding the intrinsic nature of tropical-cyclone genesis and evolution(14). It is known that tropical cyclones involve more than a passive response to changing external forcing(15)| but it is not clear which dynamic behaviour best describes them. Here we present an approach based on the application of the power dissipation index| which constitutes an estimation of released energy(3)| to individual tropical cyclones. A robust law emerges for the statistics of power dissipation index| valid in four different ocean basins and over long time periods. In addition to suggesting a description of the physics of tropical cyclones in terms of critical phenomena(16|17)| the scaling law enables us to quantify their response to changing climatic conditions| with an increase in the largest power dissipation index values with sea surface temperature or the presence of El Nino phenomena| depending on the basin under consideration. In this way| we demonstrate that the recent upswing in North Atlantic hurricane activity does not involve tropical cyclones that are quantitatively different from those in other sustained high-activity periods before 1970. 492,2010,3,3,Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition,China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change| there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China| this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways| each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making| infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario| the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 723,2010,3,3,Scenarios for Future Urbanization Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Passenger Travel in Three Indian Cities,The growth of motorization and travel activity associated with India's rapid urban development has serious implications for global climate change. Effective mitigation action requires comprehension of the scale of the problem. Data limitations| however| have thus far constrained efforts to understand how changes in demographics| travel behavior| and policy might affect future emissions of greenhouse gases. This study uses recently available data on city-level travel patterns to forecast emissions from passenger transport for three metropolitan areas in India: Mumbai| Ahmedabad| and Surat. The forecasts compare carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions for three scenarios by using various mode choice and trip length assumptions. The results predict dramatic increases in emissions under all circumstances. Travel in Surat is forecast to generate between 1.9 and 9.5 million tons of CO(2); in Mumbai| travel could generate 10.3 to 49 million tons. Differences| however| between scenarios suggest the potential positive effects of policy interventions. While the results help convey the magnitude of the emissions problem| further analysis requires more complete data on individual travel behavior. 10394,2010,2,3,Sea surface temperature cooling mode in the Pacific cold tongue,[1] Long-term variability in sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and its relationship with global warming were investigated using three SST data sets (Hadley Center Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature| extended reconstruction sea surface temperature| and Kaplan)| atmospheric fields from National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis| and subsurface sea temperature from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation data set. A cooling mode in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue is evident in all three SST data sets for two periods: 1870-2007 and 1948-2007. This cooling| which is indicated by the second empirical orthogonal function mode| is characterized by cooling in the Pacific cold tongue and warming elsewhere in the tropical Pacific. Its principal component time series is highly correlated with global mean surface temperature combining air temperature and SST. In association with the SST cooling mode| atmospheric fields and subsurface sea temperature are coupled in the tropical Pacific during recent decades. Moreover| for the coupled models in the 20th century run (20C3M)| obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report database| those with realistic features of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can well show the cooling mode. However| the cooling mode is not shown in these coupled models in a preindustrial scenario with no forcing attributed to global warming. Results from observations and models suggest that the cooling mode is very likely caused by global warming. This conclusion is supported by a hypothesis that considers dynamic effects in the equatorial Pacific Ocean in response to global warming. 10800,2010,2,4,Seasonal and diurnal presence of finless porpoises at a corridor to the ocean from their habitat,A number of local populations of finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides) are widely distributed throughout the warm coastal waters of Asia. The Omura Bay population| consisting of approximately 300 individuals| is the smallest of five populations inhabiting Japanese waters. It is a relatively new population that established after the global warming that took place approximately 9000 years ago. To observe whether these porpoises appear in the major corridor to the ocean from Omura Bay| we used acoustic monitoring to record occurrences of finless porpoises from November 2007 to May 2009. A stereo acoustic event recorder recorded the intensity and the sound source direction of biosonar signals| providing independent traces of sound sources corresponding to each detected animal. A total of 226 individuals were detected over the 1.5-year monitoring period| of which 76% occurred at night and 73% occurred during March and April. We compared the presence of porpoises to the Japanese anchovy catch in Omura Bay and the Hario Strait over the same period. Results suggested that possible reductions in anchovy resources in the bay could attract porpoises to the outside of their normal habitat. In total| 70% of the porpoise recordings took place when the tidal current was moving out of Omura Bay. Porpoises might follow the prey that are transported out of the bay due to the strong outbound current. The finless porpoises confined to the bay might extend their swimming area if prey is available. 10954,2010,2,4,Seasonal and interannual variability of cladoceran communities in two peri-alpine lakes: uncoupled response to the 2003 heat wave,Seasonal and interannual dynamics of cladoceran species were analyzed during the period 1995-2003 in two deep peri-alpine lakes morphologically different but subjected to similar regional climatic forcing. The seasonal succession of cladoceran species was characterized and the impact of extreme climatic events on the annual pattern of species succession was assessed. Using a multivariate method| we show that the cladoceran species display marked seasonality patterns that differed in the two lakes. The differences observed between the lakes were driven by their trophic state| the plankton species composition and the abundance of predators. We show that the sensitivity of the annual pattern of species succession to extreme weather changes| illustrated by the 2003 heat wave| differs markedly in these two lakes. In Lake Annecy| the annual pattern of cladoceran succession observed in 2003 is not different from the one usually observed. In contrast| in Lake Geneva| the annual pattern recorded in 2003 is unusual and characterized by the maintenance of herbivorous cladocera during summer. These findings underline the need to consider the morphology of lakes and trophic state in the assessment of ecological responses to global warming. Our results contribute to the debate about the predictability of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems| and their extrapolation from one site to another. 11084,2010,2,4,Seasonal contribution and interannual variation of evapotranspiration over a reed marsh (Phragmites australis) in Northeast China from 3-year eddy covariance data,At present| one of unresolved critical issues relating to climate change is whether evapotranspiration (ET) is increasing or decreasing with global warming. There has been great interest| therefore| in studying ET in a variety of ecosystems to better understand the nature of the controlling interactions and the links between ET and other ecosystem processes. Especially| relatively few studies on ET have been conducted in wetland environments. In this paper| we present the results from 3 years (2005-2007) of direct ET measurements| using eddy covariance method| over a reed (Phragmites australis) marsh in Liaohe Delta| Northeast China. The seasonal and interannual variation of daily ET and its main controls were analysed. Annual ET for the reed marsh was 432| 480| and 445 mm in 2005| 2006 and 2007| respectively. The contribution of ET during non-growing season was not negligible; it ranged from 13% to 16% of the annual ET for the investigated years. On annual course| ET increased associating with increasing temperature and reed plant growth in late-April and early-May| and peaked in the rapid growing season with weekly mean rates of 3D7 mm day(-1) (2005)| 3D7 mm day(-1) (2006)| and 3D4 mm day(-1) (2007). Decoupling factor (Omega) also varied seasonally| with its minimum values occurred in the non-growing season and the maximum values in the rapid growing season| especially in July. During the rapid growing season| the values of decoupling factor (Omega) were generally between 0.5 and 0.8| indicating that solar radiation was main factor affecting ET other than vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Moreover| biological factor and canopy conduction also controlled the interannual ET variation in the reed marsh. The results would be helpful to better understand ET for this particular reed marsh. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 11508,2010,2,4,Seasonal effect of PM(10) concentrations on mortality and morbidity in Seoul| Korea: A temperature-matched case-crossover analysis,Background: Explorations of interactions between air pollution and seasonal changes have represented one approach in examining the consequences of global warming. However| only a few studies have focused on evaluating the effects of seasonal air pollution using data on both morbidity and mortality in Asia. Method: We examined the associations between PM(10) concentrations and mortality and hospital admissions in Seoul| Korea for the periods 2000-2006 and 2001-2006. We employed a temperature-matched case-crossover design| where reference periods matched case days in regard to temperature (same rounded to degrees celsius (degrees C))| month| and year. Results: A total of 238|826 deaths were identified| along with 98|570 and 93|553 inpatient admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases| respectively. We found that the association with PM(10) and mortality/morbidity increased during the summer. During the study period| 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM(10) was associated with the increase in mortality by 0.28% (95% confidence interval: 0.12| 0.44)| 0.51% (0.19| 0.83)| and 0.59% (-0.08| 1.26) for non-accidental| cardiovascular| and respiratory causes. 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM(10) was also associated with increase in hospitalization from cardiovascular and respiratory causes by 0.77% (0.53| 1.01) and 1.19% (0.94| 1.44). In the summer| the increase in mortality and hospitalization was 0.57% (0.20| 0.93)| 0.64% (-0.10| 1.38)| 0.50% (-1.02| 2.05)|1.52% (0.89| 2.16)| and 1.55% (0.87| 2.22). Conclusions: This study provides evidence that the effect of PM(10) on mortality and morbidity varies with season and increases during the summer season. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 10436,2010,4,4,Seasonal Temperature Extremes in Potsdam,The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam| where observation records over the last 117 years| i.e.| from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past| while "warm" extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover| the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing| while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However| many changes are not statistically significant| since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong. 11286,2010,4,4,Secular and multidecadal warmings in the North Atlantic and their relationships with major hurricane activity,Analysis of recent literature finds weaknesses in arguments to the effect that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) - roughly 50-90 year fluctuations in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures - is externally forced by anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases rather than an internal climate mode| Plus indications from other sources that the contrary may be true. We are led to the conclusion that the AMO is probably comprised of both natural and anthropogenic forcing in ways that preclude a physically based separation of the two| using the limited historical data sets. A straightforward quadratic fitting of trend to temperature data accounts for some of the 20th Century nonlinearity in Secular warming and separates the secular and multidecadal components of variability without inherent assumptions about the nature of the multidecadal fluctuations. Doing this shows that the 20th Century secular ocean warming in the North Atlantic is about equal to the peak-to-peak amplitude of the multidecadal fluctuations. However| over the last quarter-century (1975-2000) the most recent multidecadal warming has been almost three times the secular sea surface temperature (SST) increase over the main development region (MDR) for major Atlantic hurricanes. In the last quarter-century the multidecadal increase in late Summer Atlantic warm pool (AWP) size (area of SSTs in excess of 28 degrees C) has been 36%| and the secular increase| 14%. Projections to the year 2025 show that the cumulative change in summer warm pool size since 1975 will depend critically on whether a subsequent cooling in the multidecadal cycle Occurs| comparable to the warming between 1975 and 2000 AD. This places a high premium on understanding to what extent the AMO is a man-made or a natural phenomenon. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 11395,2010,2,4,Sedimentological and geochemical records of past trophic state and hypolimnetic anoxia in large| hard-water Lake Bourget| French Alps,Sedimentological| geochemical and particle-size analyses were used to reconstruct the evolution of both trophic state and hypolimnetic anoxia in Lake Bourget (French Alps) during the last century. Radionuclide dating ((210)Pb| (137)Cs and (241)Am) confirmed the annual rhythm of laminations in the upper sediment profile. In Lake Bourget| biochemical varves are triplets composed of a diatom layer (spring lamina)| a bio-precipitated calcite-rich layer (spring/summer lamina)| and a layer rich in organic matter and detrital particles (winter lamina). The onset of eutrophication and the first appearance of an anoxic facies occurred simultaneously and were dated by laminae counting to AD 1943 +/- 1 year. Persistent anoxic conditions began in AD 1960. Eutrophication is characterised by drastic increases in the flux of biogenic silica (mostly diatoms)| lacustrine organic matter| and larger calcite crystals (15-30 mu m). The increase of organic matter also represents a marker of the onset of anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion. Our results show that eutrophication was the main factor controlling anoxia in the hypolimnion. This eutrophication was caused mostly by the inflow of untreated sewage effluents| and to a lesser extent| by input of fertilizer-derived phosphorus during floods of the Rhone River and run-off from the lake catchment. The Rhone River| however| can also be a source of re-oxygenation via underflows that originate during flood events. Oxygenation of the hypolimnion is also controlled by low winter temperatures| which enable turnover of the lake. Thus| global warming| associated with a forecasted reduction in precipitation| might reduce the efficiency of hypolimnetic re-oxygenation in Lake Bourget. 11363,2010,2,3,Sedimentological characteristics of key sea turtle rookeries: potential implications under projected climate change,Sea turtles rely on reef islands for key parts of their reproductive cycle and require specific sediment characteristics to incubate their eggs and dig their nests. However| little is known about the sedimentological characteristics of sea turtle rookeries| how these sediment characteristics affect the vulnerability of rookeries to climate change| and the ecological implications of different sediment or altered sediment characteristics to sea turtles. Therefore| we described the sediment and identified the reef-building organisms of the seven most important rookeries used by the northern Great Barrier Reef (nGBR) green turtle population. We then reviewed the literature on the vulnerability of each identified reef-building organism to climate change and how various sediment characteristics ecologically affect sea turtles. Sediments from the studied rookeries are predominantly composed of well-sorted medium-grained to coarse-grained sands and are either dominated by Foraminifera| molluscs or both. Dissimilarities in the contemporary sedimentology of the rookeries suggest that each may respond differently to projected climate change. Potential ecological impacts from climate change include: (1) changes in nesting and hatchling emergence success and (2) reduction of optimal nesting habitat. Each of these factors will decrease the annual reproductive output of sea turtles and thus have significant conservation ramifications. 11497,2010,2,4,Seed Production Enhanced by Antiauxin in the pat-2 Parthenocarpic Tomato Mutant,There is concern that high temperatures resulting from global warming could reduce fruit set of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum). However| fruit set of parthenocarpic tomato genotypes| which often bears seedless fruit| is not reduced when grown under a high temperature. The cause of seedless fruit development was studied with the aim of increasing the seed number in parthenocarpic tomato. Ovule number at anthesis in parthenocarpic and non-parthenocarpic fruit did not differ| but the proportion of undeveloped ovules increased with time after anthesis in parthenocarpic tomato| whereas most ovules in non-parthenocarpic tomato developed normally. Pollen grains germinated on the stigma and extruded pollen tubes in parthenocarpic and non-parthenocarpic tomatoes| but in parthenocarpic tomato| pollen tube elongation was markedly inhibited in the style base. Elongation of pollen tubes on agar containing indoleacetic acid (IAA) was depressed in parthenocarpic and non-parthenocarpic tomato plants. p-Chlorophenoxyisobutyric acid (PCIB)| which inhibits auxin action| did not affect the fruit set and fresh weight in either type of tomato| although seed number per fruit in parthenocarpic tomato was significantly increased from 13 +/- 2 to 74 +/- 6 seeds by PCIB treatment. These results indicated that a high IAA concentration in the ovary of parthenocarpic tomato inhibited pollen tube elongation| and that poor fertilization resulted in failure of ovule development. Moreover| floral organs in parthenocarpic tomato were normally developed as in non-parthenocarpic tomato| and seed development could be induced in parthenocarpic tomato by PCIB treatment. 423,2010,3,3,Sensitivity analysis of CO(2) sequestration in saline aquifers,Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has been considered as an important method for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and for mitigating global climate change. Three primary options are being considered for large-scale storage of CO(2) in subsurface formations oil and gas reservoirs| deep saline aquifers| and coal beds There are very many large saline aquifers around the world| which could make a big contribution to mitigating global warming However| we have much less understanding of saline aquifers than oil and gas reservoirs Several mechanisms are involved in the storage of CO(2) in deep saline aquifers| but the ultimate goal of injection of CO(2) into the aquifers containing salt water is to dissolve the CO(2) in the water So it is important to study the solubility trapping and sensitivity factors of CO(2) in saline aquifers. This paper presents results of modeling CO(2) storage in a saline aquifer using the commercial reservoir simulator ECLIPSE The objective of this study was to better understand the CO(2)/brine phase behavior (PVT properties) and quantitatively estimate the most important CO(2) storage mechanism in brine-solubility trapping This would provide a tool by performing theoretical and numerical studies that help to understand the feasibility of CO(2) geological storage. A 3-dimensional. 2-phase (water/gas) conceptional reservoir model used finite| homogenous and isothermal formations into which CO| is injected at a constant rate. The effects of main parameters were studied| including the vertical to horizontal permeability ratio k(v)/k(h)| salinity| and residual phase saturations The results show that the vertical to horizontal permeability ratio has a significant effect on CO(2) storage Moreover| more CO(2) dissolves in the brine at lower k(v)/k(h) values 665,2010,4,3,Sensitivity analysis of municipal drinking water distribution system energy use to system properties,Municipal Drinking Water Distribution Systems (MDWDSs) consume a significant quantity of energy to transport water| thereby exacerbating greenhouse gas emissions and global climate change. The current study is a sensitivity analysis that uses a network solver to quantify energy savings due to the alteration of three system propertiessystem-wide water demand| storage tank parameters (maximum water level| diameter| elevation)| and pumping stations (horsepower| number of boosters| and their locations) of seven diverse MDWDSs. It was found that a 50% reduction in water demand| main pump horsepower| and booster horsepower resulted in an average energy savings of 47| 41| and 9.5% respectively| for the seven systems analyzed. Other properties examined showed insignificant savings. Even though an individual system analysis is more conclusive| this sensitivity analysis can guide optimization studies to focus on the most sensitive properties. 11016,2010,2,3,Sensitivity of arctic summer sea ice coverage to global warming forcing: towards reducing uncertainty in arctic climate change projections,Substantial uncertainties have emerged in Arctic climate change projections by the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report climate models. In particular| the models as a group considerably underestimate the recent accelerating sea ice reduction. To better understand the uncertainties| we evaluated sensitivities of summer sea ice coverage to global warming forcing in models and observations. The result suggests that the uncertainties result from the large range of sensitivities involved in the computation of sea ice mass balance by the climate models| specifically with the changes in sea ice area (SIA) ranging from 0.09 x 106 to -1.23 x 106 km2 in response to 1.0 K increase of air temperature. The sensitivities also vary largely across ensemble members in the same model| indicating impacts of initial condition on evolution of feedback strength with model integrations. Through observationally constraining| the selected model runs by the sensitivity analysis well captured the observed changes in SIA and surface air temperatures and greatly reduced their future projection uncertainties to a certain range from the currently announced one. The projected ice-free summer Arctic Ocean may occur as early as in the late 2030s using a criterion of 80% SIA loss and the Arctic regional mean surface air temperature will be likely increased by 8.5 +/- 2.5 degrees C in winter and 3.7 +/- 0.9 degrees C in summer by the end of this century. 11124,2010,2,3,Sensitivity of North Atlantic subpolar gyre and overturning to stratification-dependent mixing: response to global warming,We use a reduced complexity climate model with a three-dimensional ocean component and realistic topography to investigate the effect of stratification-dependent mixing on the sensitivity of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG)| and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)| to idealized CO(2) increase and peaking scenarios. The vertical diffusivity of the ocean interior is parameterized as kappa similar to N (-I +/-)| where N is the local buoyancy frequency. For all parameter values 0 a parts per thousand currency sign alpha a parts per thousand currency sign 3| we find the SPG| and subsequently the AMOC| to weaken in response to increasing CO(2) concentrations. The weakening is significantly stronger for alpha a parts per thousand yen alpha(cr) a parts per thousand 1.5. Depending on the value of alpha| two separate model states develop. These states remain different after the CO(2) concentration is stabilized| and in some cases even after the CO(2) concentration has been decreased again to the pre-industrial level. This behaviour is explained by a positive feedback between stratification and mixing anomalies in the Nordic Seas| causing a persistent weakening of the SPG. 627,2010,2,2,Sensitivity of plant-pollinator-herbivore communities to changes in phenology,For many species in seasonal environments| warmer springs associated with anthropogenic climate change are causing phenological changes. Within ecological communities| the timing of interactions among species may be altered if the species experience asymmetrical phenological shifts. We present a model that examines the consequences of changes in the relative timing of herbivory and pollination in a community of herbivores and pollinators that share a host plant. Our model suggests that phenological shifts can alter the abundances of these species and| in some cases| their population dynamics. If historical patterns of interactions in a community change and herbivores become active before pollinators| the community could see a reduction in pollinators and an increase in herbivores| while if pollinators become active before herbivores| there could be a loss of stable coexistence. Previous studies have warned of the potential for climate change to cause large phenological mismatches whereby species that depend on one another become so separated in time that they can no longer interact. Our results suggest that climate change-induced phenological shifts can have a major impact on communities even in cases where complete phenological mismatches do not occur. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 532,2010,2,3,Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate,Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas| modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land-cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall-to-streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2)| for 2010-2099. Four land-cover change scenarios increase forest| grassland| crops| or urban land use| respectively| reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also| through increased infiltration| reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET| increase annual streamflow and groundwater release| while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land-cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land-use plus climate-change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter-annual variability. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 10607,2010,2,4,Severity of the 1998 and 2005 bleaching events in Venezuela| southern Caribbean,This study describes the seventy of the 2005 bleaching event at 15 reef sites across Venezuela and compar s the 1998 and 2005 bleaching events at one of them During August and September 2005 bleached corals wen first observed on oceanic reefs rather than coastal reefs affecting 1 to 4% of coral colonies in the community (3 reef sites n=736 colonies) At that time however no bleached corals were recorded along the eastern coast of Venezuela an area of seasonal upwelling (3 reefs n=181 colonies) On coastal reefs bleaching started in October but highest levels were reached in November 2005 and January 2006 when 16% of corals were affected among t wide range of taxa (e g scleractinians octocorals Millepora and zoanthids) In the Acropora habitats of Los Rogues (an oceanic reef) no bleached was recorded in 2005 (four sites n=643 colonies) At Cayo Sombrero a coastal reef site bleaching was less severe in 1998 than in 2005 (9% of the coral colonies involving 2 species vs 26% involving 23 species respectively) Our results indicate that bleaching was more severe in 2005 than in 1998 on Venezuelan reefs however no mass mortality was observed in either of these two events Rev Biol Trop 58 (Suppl 3) 189 196 Epub 2010 October 01 444,2010,4,3,Shapes of soot aerosol particles and implications for their effects on climate,Soot aerosol particles (also called light-absorbing| black| or elemental carbon) are major contributors to global warming through their absorption of solar radiation. When embedded in organic matter or sulfate| as is common in polluted areas such as over Mexico City (MC) and other megacities| their optical properties are affected by their shapes and positions within their host particles. However| large uncertainties remain regarding those variables and how they affect warming by soot. Using electron tomography with a transmission electron microscope| three-dimensional (3-D) images of individual soot particles embedded within host particles collected from MC and its surroundings were obtained. From those 3-D images| we calculated the optical properties using a discrete dipole approximation. Many soot particles have open| chainlike shapes even after being surrounded by organic matter and are located in off-center positions within their host materials. Such embedded soot absorbs sunlight less efficiently than if compact and located near the center of its host particle. In the case of our MC samples| their contribution to direct radiative forcing is similar to 20% less than if they had a simple core-shell shape| which is the shape assumed in many climate models. This study shows that the shapes and positions of soot within its host particles have an important effect on particle optical properties and should be recognized as potentially important variables when evaluating global climate change. 10648,2010,3,4,Shea meal and cotton stalk as potential fuels for co-combustion with coal,The efficient management of waste biomass is an important environmental problem in agricultural countries. Often land-fill is the main disposal route with ramifications including CH(4) release having 21 times greater global warming potential per molecule than CO(2). Biomasses are considered to be CO(2)-neutral fuels when combusted. Moreover| they are renewable and covered by the renewable obligation scheme and eligible for certificates in the UK. The overall objective of the investigation is to assess the performance of selected biomass and coal co-firing under two different modes of operation| air-staging and fuel-staging with the benefit of reduced-NO(x) and SO(2) emissions in power plant. The biomasses chosen for the study| shea meal (SM) and cotton stalk (CS) have very different cellulose/lignin compositions and different reported thermal behaviour. A series of experiments have been carried out in a 20 kW| down fired combustor using coal| shea meal-coal and cotton stalk-coal blends under un-staged| air-staged and fuel-staged co-combustion configurations. For air-staging| an optimum value of primary zone stoichiometry SR(1) = 0.9 was found. Keeping it fixed| the shea meal and cotton stalk content in the coal-biomass blends was set to 5%| 10% and 15% on thermal basis. NO reductions of 51% and 60% were achieved using SM and CS| respectively| with an optimum thermal biomass blending ratio (BBR) of 10%. The results obtained were compared with un-staged and air-staged results for coal without the addition of biomass. Similarly for fuel-staging| keeping the length of the reburn and burnout zone fixed| SM and CS were evaluated as reductive fuel using different reburn fuel fractions (R(ff)) of 5%| 10%| 15% and 20%. NO reductions of 83% and 84% were obtained with an optimum R(ff) of 15% with an optimum reburn zone stoichiometry of SR(2) = 0.8 for both SM and CS| respectively. SO(2) reduction and char burnout efficiency were also evaluated. It was found that addition of biomass coupled with air and fuel-staging techniques reduced-NO(x) and SO(2) simultaneously while at the same time improving the char burnout efficiency. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11376,2010,3,4,Shift to a low carbon society through energy systems design,Concern about global warming calls for an advanced approach for designing an energy system to reduce carbon emissions as well as to secure energy security for each country. Conventional energy systems tend to introduce different technologies with high conversion efficiency| leading to a higher average efficiency. Advanced energy systems can be achieved not by an aggregate form of conversion technologies but by an innovative system design itself. The concept of LCS (low carbon society) is a unique approach having multi-dimensional considerations such as social| economic and environmental dimensions. The LCS aims at an extensive restructuring of worldwide energy supply/demand network system by not only replacing the conventional parts with the new ones| but also integrating all the necessary components and designing absolutely different energy networks. As a core tool for the LCS design| energy-economic models are applied to show feasible solutions in future with alternatives such as renewable resources| combined heat and power| and smart grid operations. Models can introduce changes in energy markets| technology learning in capacity| and penetration of innovative technologies| leading to an optimum system configuration under priority settings. The paper describes recent trials of energy models application related to waste-to-energy| clean coal| transportation and rural development. Although the modelling approach is still under investigation| the output clearly shows possible options having variety of technologies and linkages between supply and demand sides. Design of the LCS means an energy systems design with the modelling approach| which gives solution for complex systems| choices among technologies| technology feasibility| R&D targets| and what we need to start. 10770,2010,4,4,Short-term effect of increasing nitrogen deposition on CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau| China,An increasing nitrogen deposition experiment (2 g N m(-2) year(-1)) was initiated in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in May 2007. The greenhouse gases (GHGs)| including CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O| was observed in the growing season (from May to September) of 2008 using static chamber and gas chromatography techniques. The CO(2) emission and CH(4) uptake rate showed a seasonal fluctuation| reaching the maximum in the middle of July. We found soil temperature and water-filled pore space (WFPS) were the dominant factors that controlled seasonal variation of CO(2) and CH(4) respectively and lacks of correlation between N(2)O fluxes and environmental variables. The temperature sensitivity (Q(10)) of CO(2) emission and CH(4) uptake were relatively higher (3.79 for CO(2)| 3.29 for CH(4)) than that of warmer region ecosystems| indicating the increase of temperature in the future will exert great impacts on CO(2) emission and CH(4) uptake in the alpine meadow. In the entire growing season| nitrogen deposition tended to increase N(2)O emission| to reduce CH(4) uptake and to decrease CO(2) emission| and the differences caused by nitrogen deposition were all not significant (p < 0.05). However| we still found significant difference (p < 0.05) between the control and nitrogen deposition treatment at some observation dates for CH(4) rather than for CO(2) and N(2)O| implying CH(4) is most susceptible in response to increased nitrogen availability among the three greenhouse gases. In addition| we found short-term nitrogen deposition treatment had very limited impacts on net global warming potential (GWP) of the three GHGs together in term of CO(2)-equivalents. Overall| the research suggests that longer study periods are needed to verify the cumulative effects of increasing nitrogen deposition on GHG fluxes in the alpine meadow. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10815,2010,3,1,Short-term effects of controlling fossil-fuel soot| biofuel soot and gases| and methane on climate| Arctic ice| and air pollution health,This study examines the short-term (similar to 15 year) effects of controlling fossil-fuel soot (FS) (black carbon (BC)| primary organic matter (POM)| and S(IV) (H(2)SO(4)(aq)| HSO(4)(-)| and SO(4)(2-)))| solid-biofuel soot and gases (BSG) (BC| POM| S(IV)| K(+)| Na(+)| Ca(2+)| Mg(2+)| NH(4)(+)| NO(3)| Cl and several dozen gases| including CO(2) and CH(4))| and methane on global and Arctic temperatures| cloudiness| precipitation| and atmospheric composition. Climate response simulations were run with GATOR-GCMOM| accounting for both microphysical (indirect) and radiative effects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation. The model treated discrete size-resolved aging and internal mixing of aerosol soot| discrete size-resolved evolution of clouds/precipitation from externally and internally mixed aerosol particles| and soot absorption in aerosols| clouds/precipitation| and snow/sea ice. Eliminating FS| FS+BSG (FSBSG)| and CH(4) in isolation were found to reduce global surface air temperatures by a statistically significant 0.3-0.5 K| 0.4-0.7 K| and 0.2-0.4 K| respectively| averaged over 15 years. As net global warming (0.7-0.8 K) is due mostly to gross pollutant warming from fossil-fuel greenhouse gases (2-2.4 K)| and FSBSG (0.4-0.7 K) offset by cooling due to non-FSBSG aerosol particles (-1.7 to -2.3 K)| removing FS and FSBSG may reduce 13-16% and 17-23%| respectively| of gross warming to date. Reducing FS| FSBSG| and CH(4) in isolation may reduce warming above the Arctic Circle by up to similar to 1.2 K| similar to 1.7 K| and similar to 0.9 K| respectively. Both FS and BSG contribute to warming| but FS is a stronger contributor per unit mass emission. However| BSG may cause 8 times more mortality than FS. The global e-folding lifetime of emitted BC (from all fossil sources) against internal mixing by coagulation was similar to 3 h| similar to data| and that of all BC against dry plus wet removal was similar to 4.7 days. About 90% of emitted FS BC mass was lost to internal mixing by coagulation| similar to 7% to wet removal| similar to 3% to dry removal| and a residual remaining airborne. Of all emitted plus internally mixed BC| similar to 92% was wet removed and similar to 8% dry removed| with a residual remaining airborne. The 20 and 100 year surface temperature response per unit continuous emissions (STRE) (similar to global warming potentials (GWPs)) of BC in FS were 4500-7200 and 2900-4600| respectively; those of BC in BSG were 2100-4000 and 1060-2020| respectively; and those of CH(4) were 52-92 and 29-63| respectively. Thus| FSBSG may be the second leading cause of warming after CO(2). Controlling FS and BSG may be a faster method of reducing Arctic ice loss and global warming than other options| including controlling CH(4) or CO(2)| although all controls are needed. 10624,2010,3,2,Should the US clean air act include CO(2) emission control?: Examination by data envelopment analysis,This study proposes a new use of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure the operational| environmental and both-unified efficiency measures of US coal-fired power plants. The power plants produce not only desirable outputs (e.g.| electricity) but also undesirable outputs (e.g.| CO(2) and NO(x)) as a result of their plant operations. A Range-Adjusted Measure (RAM) is used as an original non-radial DEA model. Then| it is reformulated for handling undesirable (bad) outputs. The proposed use of DEA models measures the environmental and unified performance of power plants under two variable alternatives (with and without CO(2) emission control) in order to examine both the influence of US Clean Air Act (CAA) on the acid rain causing gases (NO(x) and SO(2)) and its extension to the CO(2) regulation. This study finds that the acid rain program under the CAA has been effective on the emission control of SO(2) and NO(x) produced at US coal-fired power plants. Moreover| additional regulation on CO(2) may enhance their environmental and unified performance. Thus| it is recommended that the US federal and state governments need to expand the legal scope of CAA to the emission control on CO(2) because the gas is considered as a main source of global warming and climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10820,2010,5,3,Silicate weathering machine at work: Rock magnetic data from the late Paleocene-early Eocene Cicogna section| Italy,We describe a scenario of climate forcing on sedimentation recorded in the late Paleocene-early Eocene Cicogna marine section from the Belluno Basin ( NE Italy). Previously published magneto-biostratigraphic data revealed that the similar to 81 m Cicogna section extends from Chron C25r to Chron C23r spanning the NP7/NP8-NP12 nannofossil zones (similar to 52.2-56.6 Ma). Using previously published rock magnetic data| augmented by data from this study| we describe and thoroughly discuss a pronounced increase of hematite ( relative to maghemite or magnetite) between similar to 54.9 and 54.6 Ma immediately above the Paleocene-Eocene boundary| followed by a second| long-term increasing trend from similar to 54 Ma up to similar to 52.2 Ma in the early Eocene. This hematite is essentially of detrital origin| insofar as it is associated with a strong shallow bias of paleomagnetic inclinations| and is interpreted to have formed on land by the weathering of Fe-bearing silicates and other primary minerals. We speculate that the warm and humid climate typical of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM| similar to 54.9 Ma) as well as of the warming trend leading to the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO; similar to 52-50 Ma) enhanced continental weathering of silicate rocks with the consequent production| transport| and sedimentation of detrital hematite grains. This hypothesis is confirmed by a statistical correlation between the rock magnetic properties and global climate as revealed by a standard benthic oxygen isotope record from the literature. Our temporal coupling between oxidation state of sedimentary magnetic phases and global climate is therefore consistent with the existence in the Paleocene-Eocene of the silicate weathering negative feedback mechanism for the long-term stabilization of the Earth's surface temperature. 10978,2010,3,4,Simplified tools for global warming potential evaluation: when 'good enough' is best,Background| aim and scope In spite of a number of lingering issues| life cycle assessment (LCA) is widely recognised as one of the most powerful tools to investigate the environmental performance of a product or service. Carbon footprint (CF) analysis can also be considered a subset of LCA| limited to a single impact category (i.e. global warming potential (GWP)). However| the inherent complexity of a full LCA or CF analysis often stands in the way of their widespread application in the industry and policy-making sectors. For these latter ambits| this paper advocates the adoption of tailor-made streamlined approaches| with reduced inventory requirements and impact assessment scope. Two such examples are provided| respectively addressing the evaluation of GWP in the development of new product standards and the GWP savings attainable through the use of recycled materials. Materials and methods Both the application examples presented here are firmly rooted in life cycle thinking| and follow the guidelines provided by the current ISO standards on LCA. At the same time| the employed models are structured in such a way as not to require the deployment of specific LCA software but rely on simple algorithms instead| complemented by tables of data for the associated background processes sourced from standard life cycle inventory databases. Results In the first example| the simplified algorithm was found to produce reliable and satisfactorily accurate results in terms of GWP| i.e. within 10% of those produced by a fully fledged LCA performed in parallel for validation purposes. In the second example| the adopted simplification only applied to the goal of the study (i.e. assessment of the absolute GWP savings| with no quantitative indication of their relative extent with respect to the total). Within these limits| the proposed simplified tool provided accurate indications| which enabled a clear ranking of the analysed products| in terms of desirability of recycling. Discussion To the extent possible within the given set of constraints| simplified tools such as those presented here do not lose their scientific rigour and take into account all phases of the product life cycle. Their reduced goal and scope does of course limit the breadth of the information that they can produce| but this can be mitigated through a case-specific selection of the adopted inventory simplifications and impact category/ies. Conclusions The two application examples presented here have provided solid evidence that streamlined approaches such as these can go a long way in facilitating the introduction of life cycle thinking and LCA in the day-today practice of industries and policy makers| while still producing scientifically sound and robust results. Recommendations and perspectives Simplified LCA tools lend themselves to a wealth of possible applications in the industry and policy-making sectors. More case studies are in order| and it will be advisable not to limit the goal and scope of all streamlined approaches to carbon footprint evaluation but to pick the most relevant impact categories to be included in the model on a case-by-case basis. 10705,2010,2,4,Simulated change in the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon in the 21st century,This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO-monsoon relationships in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and A2| respectively| by analyzing the simulated results of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) coupled models. The dynamical monsoon index (DMI) was adopted to describe the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon| and the standard deviation (SD) was used to illustrate the intensity of interannual variability. It was found that most models could project enhanced interannual variability of monsoon in the 21st century. The multi-model ensemble (MME) results showed increases in the interannual variability of DMI: 14.3% and 20.0% under scenarios A1B and A2| respectively. The MME result also showed increases in the rainfall variability are of about 10.2% and 22.0% under scenarios A1B and A2. The intensification of interannual variability tended to occur over the regions that have larger variability currently; that is| "the strong get stronger". Another finding was that ENSO-monsoon relationships are likely to be enhanced in the 21st century. The dynamical component of the monsoon will be more closely correlated to ENSO in the future under global warming| although the ENSO-summer rainfall relationship cannot be reasonably projected by current models. This suggests that the South Asian summer monsoon is more predictable in the future| at least dynamically. 10499,2010,2,3,Simulating grain yield of irrigated rice in climate change scenarios,The objective of this work was to simulate rice grain yield in climate change scenarios with increasing of current atmospheric CO(2) concentration and increases in mean air temperature in Santa Maria| RS| as well as to verify possible implications on current recommendations of sowing period. Climate change scenarios for the next one hundred years considering doubled CO(2) concentration and increases of 1| 2| 3| 4 and 5 degrees C were used. Rice grain yield was simulated with the InfoCrop model. Simulations were performed considering three rice cultivars - IRGA 421| IRGA 417 and EPAGRI 109 - and seven sowing dates spaced monthly from July 20(th) to January 20(th). An increase in rice grain yield was observed in the climate change scenarios simulated for the three cultivars| with higher increase for the very early cultivar (IRGA 421) and lower increase for the late cultivar (EPAGRI 109). If climate change takes place| currently sowing period recommended for irrigated rice shall be enlarged. 10979,2010,2,3,Simulating impacts| potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India,Climate change associated global warming| rise in carbon dioxide concentration and uncertainties in precipitation has profound implications on Indian agriculture. Maize (Zea mays L.)| the third most important cereal crop in India| has a major role to play in country's food security. Thus| it is important to analyze the consequence of climate change on maize productivity in major maize producing regions in India and elucidate potential adaptive strategy to minimize the adverse effects. Calibrated and validated InfoCrop-MAIZE model was used for analyzing the impacts of increase in temperature| carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and change in rainfall apart from HadCM3 A2a scenario for 2020| 2050 and 2080. The main insights from the analysis are threefold. First| maize yields in monsoon are projected to be adversely affected due to rise in atmospheric temperature; but increased rainfall can partly offset those loses. During winter| maize grain yield is projected to reduced with increase in temperature in two of the regions (Mid Indo-Gangetic Plains or MIGP| and Southern Plateau or SP)| but in the Upper Indo-Gangetic Plain (UIGP)| where relatively low temperatures prevail during winter| yield increased up to a 2.7 degrees C rise in temperature. Variation in rainfall may not have a major impact on winter yields| as the crop is already well irrigated. Secondly| the spatio-temporal variations in projected changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to lead to differential impacts in the different regions. In particular| monsoon yield is reduced most in SP (up to 35%)| winter yield is reduced most in MIGP (up to 55%)| while UIGP yields are relatively unaffected. Third| developing new cultivars with growth pattern in changed climate scenarios similar to that of current varieties in present conditions could be an advantageous adaptation strategy for minimizing the vulnerability of maize production in India. 525,2010,2,4,Simulating the effects of climate change on forest dynamics on Gongga Mountain| Southwest China,Forest gap models are important tools for assessing the impact of global climate change on forest dynamics of tree species composition and size structure. In this study| the FAREAST gap model was used to examine the response of forest dynamics on Gongga Mountain| which is located on the southeastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau| under three climate change scenarios. The simulated results showed that the climax community of the deglaciation slash would be mixed species of Picea brachytyla| Tsuga chinensis| and Pinus densata under climate change scenarios| as opposed to the pure Abies fabri forest under the current climate. Climate change also drove replacement of Populus purdomiis by Betula utilis| which became the most abundant pioneer tree species on the deglaciation slash. Under scenarios of climate change| three responses of the four typical forests distributed between 2200 and 3580 m above sea level are observed| such as dieback of today's forest at 2200 and 3150 m| gradual change of the species composition at 2780 m| and afforestation at 3580 m. It is worth noting that the scenarios of climatic change are of inherent uncertainty| in the same way as the formulation of the ecological factors used in the models. It is suggested that simulations not be interpreted as predictions of the future development of the forest| but as a means of assessing their sensitivity to climate change. It is concluded that mountainous forests are quite sensitive to climate change. 11292,2010,2,4,Simulating the Impacts of Global Warming on Wheat in China Using a Large Area Crop Model,Temperature is one of the most prominent environmental factors that determine plant growth| development| and yield. Cool and moist conditions are most favorable for wheat. Wheat is likely to be highly vulnerable to further warming because currently the temperature is already close to or above optimum. In this study| the impacts of warming and extreme high temperature stress on wheat yield over China were investigated by using the general large area model (CLAM) for annual crops. The results showed that each 1 degrees C rise in daily mean temperature would reduce the average wheat yield in China by about 4.6%-5.7% mainly due to the shorter growth duration| except for a small increase in yield at some grid cells. When the maximum temperature exceeded 30.5 degrees C| the simulated grain-set fraction declined from 1 at 30.5 degrees C to close to 0 at about 36 degrees C. When the total grain-set was lower than the critical fractional grain-set (0.575-0.6)| harvest index and potential grain yield were reduced. In order to reduce the negative impacts of warming| it is crucial to take serious actions to adapt to the climate change| for example| by shifting sowing date| adjusting crop distribution and structure| breeding heat-resistant varieties| and improving the monitoring| forecasting| and early warning of extreme climate events. 366,2010,2,3,Simulation in maize-water relations: a case study for continental climate (Hungary),Local consequences of the global climate change in the Carpathian Basin were followed on the basis of simulated stomatal resistances. The Crop Microclimate Simulation Model of Goudriaan was applied in our study. The expected weather| plant and soil modifications were based on long-term observations during the time period 1961-1990 in the Keszthely area (Hungary. N 46 degrees 44'| E 17 degrees 14'; altitude 112 m). Besides application of the A2 and B2 SRES scenarios| the impact of extreme hot days was also included in the study. This was necessary as these events have recently occurred more and more frequently. Demonstration of weather scenarios with relatively high warming rates was made possible by the high resolution of the model| simulating even daily changes. The stomatal resistance significantly increased in all scenarios| as was indeed experienced in the last decade (1997-2006). A twofold increase in CO(2) concentration approximately halves stomatal openings even under unchanged weather conditions. This can be considered as an advantageous side effect of the global climate change on the plant's water balance| important in continental climate because of scarce precipitation. In Scenarios A2 and B2| increases in resistance were close to the effect of doubled CO(2) concentration. Surprisingly| the effect of an increase in the number of extreme hot days on stomatal resistance was moderate| below than what might have been expected. The common impact of the environmental and biological factors on stomatal resistance was realized using normalized leaf area indices| where the highest increases were predicted by using the hottest and driest scenario. Moderate changes in water loss and photosynthesis indicated a certain amount of available soil moisture reserve even in the extreme weather situations in July| at Keszthely. Decrease in carbon assimilation can occur in days with extreme temperatures. Our scenarios do not include significant precipitation decline because of forecast uncertainties. A significant precipitation decrease would fundamentally reshape our results| so we do not propose to extend our conclusions in the case of significant modification in rainfall amount or distribution. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 10927,2010,2,3,Simulation of global warming effect on outdoor thermal comfort conditions,In the coming decades| global warming and increase in temperature| in different regions of the world| may change indoor and outdoor thermal comfort conditions and human health. The aim of this research was to study the effects of global warming on thermal comfort conditions in indoor ambiences in Iran. To study the increase in temperature| model for assessment of greenhouse-gas induced climate change scenario generator compound model has been used together with four scenarios and to estimate thermal comfort conditions| adaptive model of the American Society of Heating| Refrigerating and Air-conditioning Engineers has been used. In this study| Iran was divided into 30 zones| outdoor conditions were obtained using meteorological data of 80 climatological stations and changes in neutral comfort conditions in 2025| 2050| 2075 and 2100 were predicted. In accordance with each scenario| findings from this study showed that temperature in the 30 zones will increase by 2100 to between 3.4 degrees C and 5.6 degrees C. In the coming decades and in the 30 studied zones| neutral comfort temperature will increase and be higher and more intense in the central and desert zones of Iran. The low increase in this temperature will be connected to the coastal areas of the Caspian and Oman Sea in southeast Iran. This increase in temperature will be followed by a change in thermal comfort and indoor energy consumption from 8.6 % to 13.1 % in air conditioning systems. As a result| passive methods as thermal inertia are proposed as a possible solution. 11453,2010,4,4,Simulation of Present-Day and Twenty-First-Century Energy Budgets of the Southern Oceans,The energy budget of the modern-day Southern Hemisphere is poorly simulated in both state-of-the-art reanalyses and coupled global climate models. The ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere has low surface reflectivity and therefore its albedo is particularly sensitive to cloud cover. In modern-day climates| mainly because of systematic deficiencies in cloud and albedo at mid-and high latitudes| too much solar radiation enters the ocean. Along with too little radiation absorbed at lower latitudes because of clouds that are too bright| unrealistically weak poleward transports of energy by both the ocean and atmosphere are generally simulated in the Southern Hemisphere. This implies too little baroclinic eddy development and deficient activity in storm tracks. However| projections into the future by coupled climate models indicate that the Southern Ocean features a robust and unique increase in albedo| related to clouds| in association with an intensification and poleward shift in storm tracks that is not observed at any other latitude. Such an increase in cloud may be untenable in nature| as it is likely precluded by the present-day ubiquitous cloud cover that models fail to capture. There is also a remarkably strong relationship between the projected changes in clouds and the simulated current-day cloud errors. The model equilibrium climate sensitivity is also significantly negatively correlated with the Southern Hemisphere energy errors| and only the more sensitive models are in the range of observations. As a result| questions loom large about how the Southern Hemisphere will actually change as global warming progresses| and a better simulation of the modern-day climate is an essential first step. 11322,2010,2,4,Simulation study of the vegetation structure and function in eastern Siberian larch forests using the individual-based vegetation model SEIB-DGVM,The global ecosystem model SEIB-DGVM was adapted for an eastern Siberian larch forest through incorporation of empirical rules of allometry| allocation| and phenology developed for a larch stand at the Spasskaya-pad tower site| Yakutsk| Russia. After calibration| the model reconstructed post-fire successional patterns of forest structure and carbon cycling. It also reconstructed seasonal changes in carbon| water| and energy cycling in a mature larch forest. Sensitivity analysis showed that simulated functional properties of forest (LAI| NPP| carbon pools| and water runoff) are mainly determined by climatic environment| and population dynamic parameters (i.e.| parameters for establishment and mortality) plays only minor role on them. Sensitivity analysis also showed that plant productivity and biomass were mainly limited by available water at Spasskaya-pad| where mean annual precipitation is only 257 mm. In the model| higher air temperature increases plant productivity via extension of growing season| and decreases plant productivity via causing drought and higher respiration. We found that the net effect is reduction of productivity| suggesting a possibility that global warming induces decrement of plant productivity in eastern Siberian larch forests. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10558,2010,2,4,Singing behavior of fin whales in the Davis Strait with implications for mating| migration and foraging,Most baleen whales undertake migrations between low-latitude breeding grounds and high-latitude feeding grounds. Though little is known about the timing of their migration from the Arctic| fin whales are assumed to undertake a similar migratory pattern. To address questions about habitat use and migrations| the acoustic activity of fin whales in Davis Strait| between Greenland and Canada| was monitored continuously for two years using three bottom-moored acoustic recorders. The acoustic power in the fin whale call frequencies peaked in November-December| showing that fin whales are present in Davis Strait much later in the year than previously expected. The closely timed peaks in song activity and conception time imply that not all fin whales migrate south to mate| but rather start mating at high latitudes rather than or before migrating. Singing activity was strongly linked to daylight hours| suggesting that fin whales might feed during the few daylight hours of the late fall and early Arctic winter. A negative correlation between the advancing sea ice front and power in fin whale frequencies indicates that future changes in sea ice conditions from global warming might change the distribution and migratory patterns of fin whales near the poles. (C) 2010 Acoustical Society of America. [DOI:10.1121/1.3495946] 10917,2010,5,4,Small mammal diversity loss in response to late-Pleistocene climatic change,Communities have been shaped in numerous ways by past climatic change; this process continues today(1). At the end of the Pleistocene epoch about 11|700 years ago| North American communities were substantially altered by the interplay of two events. The climate shifted from the cold| arid Last Glacial Maximum to the warm| mesic Holocene interglacial| causing many mammal species to shift their geographic distributions substantially(2|3). Populations were further stressed as humans arrived on the continent(4). The resulting megafaunal extinction event| in which 70 of the roughly 220 largest mammals in North America (32%) became extinct 5| has received much attention. However| responses of small mammals to events at the end of the Pleistocene have been much less studied| despite the sensitivity of these animals to current and future environmental change. Here we examine community changes in small mammals in northern California during the last 'natural' global warming event at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and show that even though no small mammals in the local community became extinct| species losses and gains| combined with changes in abundance| caused declines in both the evenness and richness of communities. Modern mammalian communities are thus depauperate not only as a result of megafaunal extinctions at the end of the Pleistocene but also because of diversity loss among small mammals. Our results suggest that across future landscapes there will be some unanticipated effects of global change on diversity: restructuring of small mammal communities| significant loss of richness| and perhaps the rising dominance of native 'weedy' species. 11404,2010,2,4,Snow cover response to climate change in a high alpine and half-glacierized basin in Switzerland,In alpine areas| the accumulation and melting of snow controls the hydrological regime. Even in watersheds where glacier melt dominates| the snow pack strongly influences the stream-flow dynamics. Prognostic simulations of the response of the snow pack to climate change were conducted in a high alpine and half-glacierized basin in central Switzerland. The snow cover and glacier were simulated using a high-resolution alpine surface model. The simulations cover a reference period (1981-2007) and two predictions (2071-2100) where the measured records of temperature| precipitation and longwave radiation were modified using six regional climate model projections for two different emission scenarios of greenhouse gases. The results show that the snow season shortens by one month at the beginning of the winter and by one and a half months at the end of the season| compared to today. The maximum snow water equivalent decreases by 27% on average. The difference in the response of the snow pack to a change in climate between the emission scenarios is rather small. The most pronounced effects of a warming climate are simulated for the highest altitudes| where all snow completely melts during summer and no snow remains for glacier accumulation. 11068,2010,2,4,Snow-induced changes in dwarf birch chemistry increase moth larval growth rate and level of herbivory,Changes in snow cover might influence arctic ecosystems to the same extent as increased temperatures. Although the duration of snow cover is generally expected to decrease in the future as a result of global warming| the amounts of snow might increase in arctic areas where much of the elevated precipitation will fall as snow. We examined the effects of an increased snow cover| as a result of a snow fence treatment| on soil nitrogen mineralization| plant phenology| plant chemistry (nitrogen and potential defense compounds)| the level of invertebrate herbivory| and performance of invertebrate herbivores in an arctic ecosystem| using dwarf birch (Betula nana) and the autumnal moth (Epirrita autumnata) as study organisms. An enhanced and prolonged snow cover increased the level of herbivory on dwarf birch leaves. Larvae feeding on plants that had experienced enhanced snow cover grew faster and pupated earlier than larvae fed with plant material from control plots| indicating that plants from enhanced snow-lie plots produce higher-quality food to herbivores. The increased larval growth rate was strongly correlated with higher leaf nitrogen concentration in plants subjected to snow manipulation| and also to certain phenolic acids. Snow manipulation did not change net nitrogen mineralization rates in the soil or total carbon concentration in leaves| but it altered the within-season fluctuating pattern of leaf phenolic compounds. This study demonstrates a positive relationship between increased snow cover and level of herbivory on deciduous shrubs| thus proposing a negative feedback on the climate-induced dwarf shrub expansion in arctic areas. 10605,2010,3,2,Societal Choice for Climate Change Futures: Trees| Biotechnology| and Clean Development,The rate and magnitude of predicted climate change require that we urgently mitigate emissions or sequester carbon on a substantial scale in order to avoid runaway climate change. Geo- and bioengineering solutions are increasingly proposed as viable and practical strategies for tackling global warming. Biotechnology companies are already developing transgenic "super carbon-absorbing" trees| which are sold as a cost-effective and relatively low-risk means of sequestering carbon. The question posed in this article is| Do super carbon trees provide real benefits or are they merely a fanciful illusion? It remains unclear whether growing these trees makes sense in terms of the carbon cost of production and the actual storage of carbon. In particular| it is widely acknowledged that "carbon-eating" trees fail to sequester as much carbon as they oxidize and return to the atmosphere; moreover| there are concerns about the biodiversity impacts of large-scale monoculture plantations. The potential social and ecological risks and opportunities presented by such controversial solutions warrant a societal dialogue. 10477,2010,3,3,Soil carbon change and its affecting factors following afforestation in China,The effects of afforestation on soil carbon (C) stocks are of concern to the plantation carbon budget and the migration of global warming China has the largest tree plantation areas in the world but the effects of afforestation on soil C are poorly understood We reviewed Chinese data of soil C available from 70 public mons to analyze the change of soil C and its affecting factors following afforestation Our results indicated that afforestation could accumulate soil C in China with the accumulation rate of 42 05 30 07 and 73 94 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in 0-20 20-40 and 0-40 cm soil depths Five years after afforestation plantations began to accumulate soil C rapidly and plantations with the age of 10-20 years old had the highest soil C accumulation rate Afforestation on former cropland and wasteland had higher accumulation rates of soil C than on former grassland In middle-temperature and warmer regions the accumulation rate of soil C was higher than that in colder regions and in semi-humid regions the accumulation rate of soil C was significantly higher than that in semi-and regions Soil C accumulated rapidly in broadleaved and mixed plantations and the accumulation rate in broadleaved was higher than that in coniferous plantations Although some uncertainties existed with regard to the data and methods a reasonable analysis of soil C change following afforestation in China was achieved for the first time Future studies should be fulfilled with improved sampling and analytical techniques reliable soil carbon models and synchronous investigation of soil nitrogen dynamics (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved 465,2010,3,4,Soil carbon sequestration in a changing global environment,Throughout its long history the Earth has undergone warm periods with high atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG)| and has responded with different buffering mechanisms whereby atmospheric C has been transferred to other geochemical compartments. Strategies for the mitigation and adaptation to the current climatic forcing may thus be generated by the acceleration of such natural mechanisms| especially those involved in short cycles| mainly in the biosphere and the pedosphere. Although these contain smaller C stocks than other compartments (< 0.01% of the total C)| they circulate large amounts of C from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and mineral weathering (e. g.| 120 Pg C are circulated through terrestrial ecosystems and total C in the atmospheric compartment is 805 Pg C). Increased C sequestration can thus be achieved in terrestrial ecosystems| by: (1) favouring growth of biomass; (2) promoting and facilitating carbonation processes; (3) reducing erosion and favouring pedogenesis; (4) developing organic matter-rich horizons; (5) recovering degraded or contaminated soils| and/or (6) managing waste by use of systems that minimize emissions of GHG. Within the latter option| the following actions are considered here in more detail: 1) production of Technosols| and 2) production of biochar. All of the above options should form part of a strategy for the mitigation and adaptation to global climate change. In this review| we analyze those focused on promoting soil conservation| soil restoration and soil formation. 666,2010,3,4,Soil Carbon Sequestration in Grazing Lands: Societal Benefits and Policy Implications,This forum manuscript examines the importance of grazing lands for sequestering soil organic carbon (SOC)| providing societal benefits| and potential influences on them of emerging policies and legislation. Global estimates are that grazing lands occupy similar to 3.6 billion ha and account for about one-fourth of potential carbon (C) sequestration in world soils. They remove the equivalent of similar to 20% of the carbon dioxide (CO(2)) released annually into the earth's atmosphere from global deforestation and land-use changes. Atmospheric CO(2) enters grazing lands soils through photosynthetic assimilation by green plants| subsequent cycling| and sequestration of some of that C as SOC to in turn contribute to the ability of grazing lands to provide societal (environmental and economic) benefits in every country where they exist. Environmental benefits provided include maintenance and well-being of immediate and surrounding soil and water resources| air quality| human and wildlife habitat| and esthetics. Grazing lands contribute to the economic well-being of those living on the land| to trade| and to exchange of goods and services derived from them at local| regional| or national levels. Rates of SOC sequestration vary with climate| soil| and management; examples and conditions selected from US literature illustrate the SOC sequestration that might be achieved. Public efforts| policy considerations| and research in the United States illustrate possible alternatives that impact grazing lands. Discussion of US policy issues related to SOC sequestration and global climate change reflect the importance attached to these topics and of pending legislative initiatives in the United States. Addressing primarily US policy does not lessen the importance of such issues in other countries| but allows an in-depth analysis of legislation| US Department of Agriculture program efforts| soil C credits in greenhouse gas markets| and research needs. 11181,2010,2,4,Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects,Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric and climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example| warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition| thus indirectly altering the soil communities that depend on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning| we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO(2)]| warming| and precipitation in Tennessee (USA). Specifically| we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils) and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: (I) Overall| while there were some interactions| water| relative to increases in [CO(2)] and warming| had the largest impact on plant community composition| soil enzyme activity| and soil nematodes. Multiple climate-change factors can interact to shape ecosystems| but in our study| those interactions were largely driven by changes in water. (2) Indirect effects of change| via changes in plant communities| had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning| and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate-change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils| but also within plant-specific soils. These results indicate that accurate assessments of climate-change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate-change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct impact of atmospheric and climate change on soil ecosystem functioning| and hence| these indirect effects should be taken into account when predicting the manner in which global change will alter ecosystem functioning. 11299,2010,3,4,Soil nitrous oxide and methane fluxes are low from a bioenergy crop (canola) grown in a semi-arid climate,Understanding nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and methane (CH(4)) fluxes from agricultural soils in semi-arid climates is necessary to fully assess greenhouse gas emissions from bioenergy cropping systems| and to improve our knowledge of global terrestrial gaseous exchange. Canola is grown globally as a feedstock for biodiesel production| however| resulting soil greenhouse gas fluxes are rarely reported for semi-arid climates. We measured soil N(2)O and CH(4) fluxes from a rain-fed canola crop in a semi-arid region of south-western Australia for 1 year on a subdaily basis. The site included N fertilized (75 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and nonfertilized plots. Daily N(2)O fluxes were low (-1.5 to 4.7 g N(2)O-N ha-1 day-1) and culminated in an annual loss of 128 g N(2)O-N ha-1 (standard error| 12 g N(2)O-N ha-1) from N fertilized soil and 80 g N(2)O-N ha-1 (standard error| 11 g N(2)O-N ha-1) from nonfertilized soil. Daily CH(4) fluxes were also low (-10.3 to 11.9 g CH(4)-C ha-1 day-1)| and did not differ with treatments| with an average annual net emission of 6.7 g CH(4)-C ha-1 (standard error| 20 g CH(4)-C ha-1). Greatest daily N(2)O fluxes occurred when the soil was fallow| and following a series of summer rainfall events. Summer rainfall increased soil water contents and available N| and occurred when soil temperatures were > 25 degrees C| and when there was no active plant growth to compete with soil microorganisms for mineralized N; conditions known to promote N(2)O production. The proportion of N fertilizer emitted as N(2)O| after correction for emissions from the no N fertilizer treatment| was 0.06%; 17 times lower than IPCC default value for the application of synthetic N fertilizers to land (1.0%). Soil greenhouse gas fluxes from bioenergy crop production in semi-arid regions are likely to have less influence on the net global warming potential of biofuel production than in temperate climates. 11187,2010,2,3,Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Alaska Estimated with Spatial and Pedon Data,Temperatures in high-latitude ecosystems are increasing faster than the average rate of global warming| which may lead to a positive feedback for climate change by increasing the respiration rates of soil organic C. If a positive feedback is confirmed| soil C will represent a source of greenhouse gases that is not currently considered in international protocols to regulate C emissions. We present new estimates of the stocks of soil organic C in Alaska| calculated by linking spatial and field data developed by the USDA NRCS. The spatial data are from the State Soil Geographic database (STATSGO)| and the field and laboratory data are from the National Soil Characterization Database| also known as the pedon database. The new estimates range from 32 to 53 Pg of soil organic C for Alaska| formed by linking the spatial and field data using the attributes of Soil Taxonomy. For modelers| we recommend an estimation method based on taxonomic subgroups with interpolation for missing areas| which yields an estimate of 48 Pg. This is a substantial increase over a magnitude of 13 Pg estimated from only the STATSGO data as originally distributed in 1994| but the increase reflects different estimation methods and is not a measure of the change in C on the landscape. Pedon samples were collected between 1952 and 2002| so the results do not represent a single point in time. The linked databases provide an improved basis for modeling the impacts of climate change on net ecosystem exchange. 10745,2010,2,4,Soil organic matter formation along a chronosequence in the Morteratsch proglacial area (Upper Engadine| Switzerland),Global warming leads to the melting of ice caps and glaciers and| consequently| the exposure of new areas of land to the atmosphere and weathering. These areas usually have a high reactivity to both biotic and abiotic changes. Proglacial areas in the Alps usually have a deglaciation time span of around 150 years (time since the end of the "Little Ice Age" in the 1850's). We investigated a chronosequence of very young soils in the proglacial area Morteratsch (Swiss Alps) to derive time-trends of soil organic matter accumulation and evolution. Total organic C and N contents| C and N contents of the various organic matter (OM) density fractions and of the labile (oxidised by H(2)O(2)) and stable (H(2)O(2)-resistant) fractions were measured. Further characterisation of OM and the various fractions was performed using Diffuse Reflection Infrared Fourier Transform (DRIFT). Soil organic matter has been accumulated over 150 years at very high rates| values lay between 7 and 368 C/m(2)/year. This led to a soil organic matter abundance of about 1-5.5 kg C/m(2) after 140 years. Even at the start of soil formation| a very stable fraction of soil organic matter was detectable. Stable organic matter (resistant to the H(2)O(2) treatment) comprised about 6% of the total soil organic carbon and 10% of the total nitrogen. At the start of soil formation| a very high proportion of soil organic matter was present in the density fractions <1.6 g/cm(3). After about 140 years| 15% of soil organic carbon and 35-40% of the nitrogen was already present in the highest density fraction (>2 g/cm(3)). With time| the quality of soil organic matter changed: a decrease of hydrophobicity| an increase in aromatic compounds in the bulk soil and a decrease in phenolic functional groups in the heaviest density fraction were detectable with increasing age. In general| stable organic matter as well as the density fraction >2 g/cm(3) had a low C/N ratio and were enriched in proteinaceous materials. The adsorption of proteinaceous materials points to a strong organomineral association. This process has existed since the very beginning of soil formation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 643,2010,2,4,Soil organic-matter stocks and characteristics along an Alpine elevation gradient,Mountain regions are known to be especially vulnerable to climatic changes; however| information on the climate sensitivity of alpine ecosystems is still scarce to date. In this study| we investigate the impacts of climate and vegetation composition on soil organic-matter (SOM) stocks and characteristics along an elevation gradient (900 to 1900 m asl) in the Austrian Limestone Alps. The soils classified as Leptic Histosols| i.e.| organic soils directly overlying the calcareous bedrock. Soil organic-carbon stocks (SOC; mean +/- standard deviation) to bedrock increased in the low-elevation forest sites from 19 +/- 3 kg m(-2) (900 m asl) to 31 +/- 3 kg m(-2) (1300 m asl)| reached a maximum (38 +/- 5 kg m(-2)) in the shrubland at 1500 m asl| but decreased again in the high-elevation grassland sites (26 +/- 3 kg m(-2) at 1700 m asl and 13 +/- 3 kg m(-2) at 1900 m asl). Thermogravimetic measurements and Fourier-transtorm infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) suggest that the upper soil layers were dominated by more labile organic compounds| whereas more persistent materials increased with depth. Along the studied climosequence| the aliphatic FTIR band (2920 cm(-1)) was lower in the low-elevation forest sites compared to the high-elevation grassland sites. Most other FTIR bands did not change with altitude| but were related to specific site conditions| such as vegetation composition and associated differences in soil pH. Our results demonstrate that differences in SOM stocks and characteristics are not consistently related to variations in climatic conditions along the studied elevation gradient| but are strongly affected by the vegetation composition| their C input and litter quality. This| in turn| is expected to shift in response to climate change. 10760,2010,2,3,Soil phosphorus availability in no-till versus conventional tillage following freezing and thawing cycles,Messiga| A. J.| Ziadi| N.| Morel| C. and Parent L.-E. 2010. Soil phosphorus availability in no-till versus conventional tillage following freezing and thawing cycles. Can. J. Soil Sci. 90: 419-428. Projected global warming may result in colder soil temperatures and a greater number of soil freezing and thawing cycles (FTC) during the winter in cool temperate and high-latitude regions. We evaluated the effects of seasons and repeated FTC on soil P availability in the topsoil of no-till (NT) and conventional tillage (CT) systems. In order to determine P availability during fall 2007 and spring 2008| soil samples (0-15 cm) were collected in both seasons from a long-term corn-soybean rotation experiment in plots that received 0| 17.5 and 35 kg P ha(-1) and 160 kg N ha(-1) every 2 yr since 1992. In addition| soil cores (0-5 cm) were collected in fall 2007 in plots that received 35 kg P ha(-1) and 160 kg N ha(-1) every 2 yr and were enriched or not with 2 g of soybean residues. Under controlled conditions| the cores were subjected to various FTC treatments| with each cycle consisting of 5 d of freezing and 5 d of thawing. The water-extractable P (Pw) and Mehlich-3 extractable P (P(M3)) contents were higher in soil samples collected in the spring compared with those collected the previous fall. After one and three FTC| Pw values averaged 17.4 mg kg(-1) in NT and 7.5 mg kg(-1) in CT and were not influenced by the addition of soybean residues. At the end of the sixth FTC| the Pw content of soil cores collected in NT increased up to 25.9 mg kg(-1) with the addition of residues but decreased in the absence of residues. The effects of freezing and thawing on soil cores with crop residues occurred at the end of the sixth FTC| where P(M3) in the NT + residues treatment increased twofold| reaching 100 mg P kg(-1). These results confirm that both Pw and P(M3) in NT can be enhanced by increasing the number of FTC.
10656,2010,2,4,Soil-atmosphere exchange potential of NO and N(2)O in different land use types of Inner Mongolia as affected by soil temperature| soil moisture| freeze-thaw| and drying-wetting events,Changes in precipitation and temperature in Asian continental steppelands may affect soil physical| chemical and biological processes that control the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of N-trace gases. The changes include regional desertification| global warming and strong El Nino events that impact the large steppe land area in China and Mongolia. The area is so large that feedbacks to the global greenhouse gas balance may occur. In this study we investigated how changes in soil moisture and temperature| and especially drying-rewetting and freeze-thaw events| affect nitric oxide (NO) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) fluxes from large intact soil cores taken from representative land use/cover types in the region of the Xilin River catchment| Inner Mongolia. These soil cores were incubated under varying conditions with respect to temperature (ranging from -10 to 15 degrees C) and simulated rainfall (25| 45 and 65 mm). Following drying-rewetting and freeze-thaw transitions| we observed pulses of NO and N(2)O emissions from the soils of typical steppe| mountain meadow| sand dune and marshland. A comparable trend in soil CO(2) emissions and soil air N(2)O concentrations indicated that the high substrate availability and rapid recovery of microbial activity after soil wetting and thawing resulted in high gas fluxes. Across the whole temperature range| NO and N(2)O fluxes from all soils| except for N(2)O emissions from marshland soils| showed a positive exponential relationship with soil temperature. A combination of soil temperature and soil moisture explained most of the observed variations in NO (up to 74-90%) and N(2)O (up to 67-89%) fluxes for individual soils. Spatial differences in NO emissions between land use/cover types could be explained by differences in soil organic carbon and pH| whereas spatial variations of N(2)O fluxes were primarily correlated with differences in soil microbial biomass. On the basis of the incubation under controlled conditions| the average annual flux| weighted by the areal extent of the different investigated land use/cover types in the region| was estimated at similar to 3.9 +/- 1.1 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) for NO and 0.53 +/- 0.20 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) for N(2)O| respectively. It is noteworthy that our measurements were conducted using soil cores without a vegetation cover| which probably resulted in an overestimation of N-trace gas fluxes. However| our results indicate that the rarely determined NO formation appears to be a significant pathway in the N cycle of semiarid steppe| which is highly sensitive to the climatic change taking place in these regions| especially an increase in intensity and frequency of drying-wetting and freeze-thaw cycles. 11104,2010,3,3,Solid Oxide Fuel Based Auxiliary Power Unit for Regional Jets: Design and Mission Simulation With Different Cell Geometries,Although it accounts for only 4.2% of the total global warming potential| the concern today is that aviation generated CO(2) is projected to grow to approximately 5.7% by 2050. Aviation emissions are growing faster than any other sector and they risk undermining the progress achieved through emission cuts in other areas of the economy. Rapidly emerging hydrogen and fuel-cell-based technologies could be developed for future replacement of on-board electrical systems in "more-electric" or "all-electric" aircrafts. Primary advantages of deploying these technologies are low emissions and low noise (important features for commuter airplanes| which takeoff and land in urban areas). Solid oxide fuel-cell (SOFC) systems could result advantageous for some aeronautical applications due to their capability of accepting hydrocarbons and high energy-density fuels. Moreover they are suitable for operating in combined-heat-and-power configurations| recovering heat from the high-temperature exhaust gases| which could be used to supply thermal loads therefore reducing the electric power requested by the aircraft. ENFICA-FC is a project selected by the European Commission in the Aeronautics and Space priority of the Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) and led by Politecnico di Torino| in Turin| Italy. One of the objectives of the project is to carry out a feasibility study on a more-electric intercity aircraft (regional jet: 32 seats). After the characterization of the power consumption of electrical and nonelectrical loads| and the definition of a mission profile| the design of the SOFC-based energy system as well as the simulation of a complete mission is performed hypothesizing different system configurations. The simulation concerns both the stack (current and current density| cell and stack voltage| etc.) and the balance-of-plant (air compressor power| gross stack power| system efficiency| etc.). The obtained results are analyzed and discussed. [DOI: 10.1115/1.3176282] 714,2010,2,3,Sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge and groundwater in a headwater catchment of the Upper Nile Basin| Uganda,The changing availability of freshwater resources is likely to be one of the most important consequences of projected 21st century climate change for both human and natural systems. However| substantial uncertainty remains regarding the precise impacts of climate change on water resources| due in part due to uncertainty in GCM projections of climate change. Here we explore the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater resources in a humid| tropical catchment (the River Mitano) in the Upper Nile Basin of Uganda. Uncertainty associated with GCM structure and climate sensitivity is explored| as well as parameter specification within hydrological models. These aims are achieved by running pattern-scaled output from seven GCMs through a semi-distributed hydrological model of the catchment (developed using SWAT). Importantly| use of pattern-scaled GCM output allows investigation of specific thresholds of global climate change including the purported 2 A degrees C threshold of 'dangerous' climate change. In-depth analysis of results based on the HadCM3 GCM climate scenarios shows that annual river discharge first increases| then declines with rising global mean air temperature. A coincidental shift from a bimodal to unimodal discharge regime also results from a projected reduction in baseflow (groundwater discharge). Both of these changes occur after a 4 A degrees C rise in global mean air temperature. These results are| however| highly GCM dependent| in both the magnitude and direction of change. This dependence stems primarily from projected differences in GCM scenario precipitation rather than temperature. GCM-related uncertainty is far greater than that associated with climate sensitivity or hydrological model parameterisation. 10494,2010,5,4,South Pacific intermediate water oxygen depletion at the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum as depicted in New Zealand margin sections,Extreme global warming and massive input of (13)C-depleted carbon into the exogenic carbon cycle characterize the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) circa 55.5 Ma. Previous work indicates that dissolved O(2) concentrations dropped in some regions of the ocean during this event| but spatial| temporal| and causal relationships between warming| carbon input| and O(2) deficiency remain elusive. We present lithologic| carbon isotopic| and trace fossil results from outcrops in New Zealand that clarify this issue. Sections exposed at Mead and Dee Streams in eastern Marlborough| South Island| contain expanded sedimentary intervals that were deposited before| during| and after the PETM on an upper continental slope. The PETM in these intervals is characterized by enhanced siliciclastic deposition| a hallmark negative carbon isotope excursion| and a loss of bioturbation. Importantly| however| the latter only occurs during the prominent drop in delta(13)C and not during its recovery. Our results suggest that South Pacific intermediate waters became hypoxic coincident to carbon injection at the start of the PETM. While higher sea surface temperatures throughout the PETM would have decreased the dissolved oxygen content of sinking surface waters| we argue here that oxygen depletion was driven by some combination of elevated temperature| water column stratification| and intermediate water methane oxidation. 10794,2010,4,4,Space Solar Patrol data and changes in weather and climate| including global warming,In this paper| the results obtained during the execution of several ISTC projects are presented. The general aim of these projects has been the study of global changes in the environment| connected with solar activity. A brief description of the optical apparatus of the Space Solar Patrol (SSP) developed and built in the framework of the ISTC projects 385| 385.2| 1523 and 2500 is given. The SSP is intended for permanent monitoring of spectra and absolute fluxes of soft x-ray and extreme ultraviolet (x-ray/EUV) radiation from the full disk of the Sun which ionizes the upper atmosphere of the Earth. Permanent solar monitoring in the main part of the ionizing radiation spectra 0.8-115 (119) nm does not exist. The apparatus of the SSP was developed in the years 1996-2005 with multiyear experience of developing such apparatus in S I Vavilov State Optical Institute. The basis of this apparatus is the use of unique detectors of ionizing radiation-open secondary electron multipliers| which are 'solar blind' to near UV| visible and IR radiation from the Sun| and new methodology of these solar spectroradiometric absolute measurements. The prospects are discussed of using the SSP data for the investigation and forecast of the influence of solar variability on the weather and climate including global warming and also on the biosphere including human beings (proposal 3878). 673,2010,2,4,Spatial and interannual variations of seasonal sea surface temperature patterns in the Baltic Sea,On the basis of monthly averaged satellite data| this study examined how the annual cycle of the Baltic Sea surface temperature (SST) varied spatially and temporally during the period 1986-2005. We conclude that there are two main thermal seasons in the Baltic Sea separated only by short transitional periods spring lasting about one month| and autumn lasting two months. Generally speaking| summer covers the part of the year from June to October with the highest monthly mean SST in August. Winter| with a minimum monthly mean SST in February in shallow waters or in March in deeper areas| lasts from December to April. As a result of climate changes over the Baltic Sea region| strong positive trends in SST occur in the summer months. In consequence; the period with extremely high sea surface water temperatures has become slightly longer in the central Baltic. In the last decade winter changes in SST display zero or even negative tendencies. The investigated period was characterized by an annual increase in mean temperatures of about 0.03-0.07 degrees C. However| the rates of monthly mean SST changes were sometimes more than three times as high. 660,2010,2,3,Spatial and temporal patterns of CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of North America during 1979-2008: application of a global biogeochemistry model,Continental-scale estimations of terrestrial methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) fluxes over a long time period are crucial to accurately assess the global balance of greenhouse gases and enhance our understanding and prediction of global climate change and terrestrial ecosystem feedbacks. Using a process-based global biogeochemical model| the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM)| we quantified simultaneously CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes in North America's terrestrial ecosystems from 1979 to 2008. During the past 30 years| approximately 14.69 +/- 1.64 T g C a(-1) (1 T g = 10(12) g) of CH(4)| and 1.94 +/- 0.1 T g Na(-1) of N(2)O were released from terrestrial ecosystems in North America. At the country level| both the US and Canada acted as CH(4) sources to the atmosphere| but Mexico mainly oxidized and consumed CH(4) from the atmosphere. Wetlands in North America contributed predominantly to the regional CH(4) source| while all other ecosystems acted as sinks for atmospheric CH(4)| of which forests accounted for 36.8%. Regarding N(2)O emission in North America| the US| Canada| and Mexico contributed 56.19%| 18.23%| and 25.58%| respectively| to the continental source over the past 30 years. Forests and croplands were the two ecosystems that contributed most to continental N(2)O emission. The inter-annual variations of CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes in North America were mainly attributed to year-to-year climatic variability. While only annual precipitation was found to have a significant effect on annual CH(4) flux| both mean annual temperature and annual precipitation were significantly correlated to annual N(2)O flux. The regional estimates and spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial ecosystem CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes in North America generated in this study provide useful information for global change research and policy making. 10708,2010,2,4,Spatial and temporal patterns of soil respiration over the Japanese Archipelago: a model intercomparison study,We used terrestrial ecosystem models to estimate spatial and temporal variability in and uncertainty of estimated soil carbon dioxide (CO(2)) efflux| or soil respiration| over the Japanese Archipelago. We compared five carbon-cycle models to assess inter-model variability: Biome-BGC| CASA| LPJ| SEIB| and VISIT. These models differ in approaches to soil carbon dynamics| root respiration estimation| and relationships between decomposition and environmental factors. We simulated the carbon budget of natural ecosystems over the archipelago for 2001-2006 at 1-day time steps and 2-min (latitude and longitude) spatial resolution. The models were calibrated using measured flux data to accurately represent net ecosystem CO(2) exchange. Each model successfully reproduced seasonal changes and latitudinal gradients in soil respiration. The five-model average of estimated total soil respiration of Japanese ecosystems was 295 Tg C year(-1)| with individual model estimates ranging from 210 to 396 Tg C year(-1) (1 Tg = 10(12) g). The differences between modeled estimates were more evident in summer and in warmer years| implying that they were mainly attributable to differences in modeling the temperature dependence of soil respiration. There was a large discrepancy between models in the estimated contribution of roots to total soil respiration| ranging from 3.9 to 48.4%. Although model calibration reduced the uncertainty of flux estimates| substantial uncertainties still remained in estimates of underground processes from these terrestrial carbon-cycle models. 10464,2010,5,4,Spatial and temporal patterns of variations in tree growth over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the period ad 1450-2001,We analyzed spatial and temporal growth variations of Qilian Junipers over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the period 1450-2001 by applying the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique to seven moisture-sensitive tree ring-width chronologies. The first three principal components together explain 78.21% of the total variance. The first principal component (PC1) accounts for 51.58% of the total variance| and represents consistent tree-growth variations in the northeastern TP. The second EOF mode reveals an opposite structure for the southern and northern parts of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau| reflecting the effect of huge topography and associated atmospheric circulation on tree-growth anomalies. The third EOF mode represents an opposite structure for the eastern and western parts of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau| possibly indicating the influence of different branches of atmospheric circulation system in this area. The EOF analysis results of instrumental precipitation data resemble those derived from the seven regional chronologies| providing further support that tree growth is a good indicator of regional precipitation variations. According to the PC1| dry conditions occurred in ad 1450-1510| 1631-1739| 1765-1833| 1866-1883 and 1921-1947| whereas periods of relatively wet years are identified for ad 1511-1630| 1740-1764| 1834-1865| 1884-1920 and 1948-2001. During the past 550 years| 28 years with extreme regional growth depressions was identified. These ring-width extremes generally occurred in century-scale dry periods. The years 1467| 1484| 1641| 1721| and 1928 with extreme tree-growth reductions in the northeastern TP are coeval with severe drought events in eastern China. In addition| the dry intervals or extreme growth depressions generally coincided with cold periods in the northeastern TP and vice versa| implying that the probability of occurrence of wet events in the northeastern TP will be higher in the future under the ongoing global warming. 499,2010,2,4,Spatial and temporal variability of fires in relation to ecosystems| land tenure and rainfall in savannas of northern South America,Fire is a predominant factor forcing global terrestrial biomass dynamics| with more than 30% of the land surface showing frequent burning| particularly in the tropics| where it mostly affects savannas ecosystems annually. Savannas| which cover approximately 269 million ha in South America| play a major role in the global carbon cycle. They are affected by increasing human pressures and global climate change. Using satellite data| this study quantifies vegetation burning in the Colombian Llanos savannas for the period 2000-2008| and analyzes how fire spatial pattern| frequency and extent vary with ecosystem type| land tenure and rainfall. On average 2.75 +/- 0.5 million ha (24 +/- 4.2%) of the savannas burn each year. Burned area is highly variable| with 3.4 million ha burned in 2002-2003 and < 1.9 million ha in 2005-2006. However| during the 2000-2008 period near of 3.7 million ha (33.5%) of the savannas never burned. Compared with the average 8-10 years of fire return time for the tropics and subtropics| these savannas burn twice as often. In addition| the average burn size figure for tropical and subtropical grassland savannas (with < 5% trees) of 7000 ha (median 5000 ha)| is about seven times the average burned patch size we found in our study. Fires predominate in the well-drained high plain savannas| lowest figures occurring along the Andean foothills| in forested areas and in pasture and croplands. Annual proportion burned varies with land tenure| being highest in National Parks. This study is the first complete regional map of fire disturbance in a South American savanna. This detailed regional data provides a unique opportunity for increasing the accuracy of global carbon emission calculations. 557,2010,2,4,Spatial and temporal variability of plant-available water in calcium carbonate-cemented soils and consequences for arid ecosystem resilience,Increased variability in precipitation| including frequency of drought| is predicted for many arid and semiarid regions globally. The ability of soils to retain water can increase resilience by buffering vegetation communities against precipitation extremes. Little is known| however| about water retention by carbonate-cemented soil horizons| which occur extensively in arid and semiarid ecosystems. It has been speculated that they may significantly modify vertical and temporal distribution of plant-available water (PAW). To investigate this hypothesis| PAW was monitored at three sites in a mixed shrub-grass community in southern New Mexico| USA| across soils with differing degrees of carbonate horizon development: no carbonate horizon| a horizon partially cemented with carbonates (calcic)| and a horizon continuously cemented with carbonates (petrocalcic). Results are presented from 3 years that included extremely dry and wet periods. Both carbonate-cemented horizons absorbed and retained significantly greater amounts of PAW for several months following an extremely wet winter and summer compared to the non-carbonate soil. Following a wet summer| continuously cemented horizons retained very high PAW (16-18% volumetric or similar to 72-80% of soil water holding capacity) through early spring of the following year| more than double the PAW retained by similar depths in the non-carbonate soil. Drying dynamics indicate both carbonate-cemented horizons release stored water into the grass rooting zone during growing seasons following extreme wet events. Water dynamics of these horizons during extreme events provide a mechanism to explain previous observations that perennial grasses exhibit greater resilience to drought when carbonate-cemented horizons occur at shallow depths (< 50 cm). Water holding capacity of the entire profile| including horizons cemented with carbonates| should be considered when evaluating the potential resilience of vegetation communities to disturbance| including the increased variability in precipitation expected to occur as a result of global climate change. 680,2010,2,4,Spatial changes in the sensitivity of Atlantic cod to climate-driven effects in the plankton,Recent strategies to sustain fish stocks have Suggested a move towards an ecosystem based fisheries management (EBFM) approach. While EBFM considers the effect of fishing at the ecosystem level| it generally struggles with climate-driven environmental variability| In this Study we show that the position of a fish stock within its distributional range or thermal niche (we use Icelandic and North Sea cod as examples of stocks at the centre and edge of their niche| respectively) will influence the relative importance of fishing and climate on abundance. At the warmer edge of the thermal niche of cod in the North Sea| we show a prominent influence of climate oil the cod stock that is mediated through temperature effects on the plankton. In contrast| the influence of climate through its effects on plankton appears much less important at the present centre of the niche around Iceland. Recognising the potentially strong effect. of climate on fish stocks| at a time of rapid global climate change| is probably an important prerequisite towards the synthesis of a cod management strategy. 10953,2010,2,4,Spatial variability of N(2)O| CH(4) and CO(2) fluxes within the Xilin River catchment of Inner Mongolia| China: a soil core study,In order to identify the effects of land-use/cover types| soil types and soil properties on the soil-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gases (GHG) in semiarid grasslands as well as provide a reliable estimate of the midsummer GHG budget| nitrous oxide (N(2)O)| methane (CH(4)) and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) fluxes of soil cores from 30 representative sites were determined in the upper Xilin River catchment in Inner Mongolia. The soil N(2)O emissions across all of the investigated sites ranged from 0.18 to 21.8 mu g N m(-2) h(-1)| with a mean of 3.4 mu g N m(-2) h(-1) and a coefficient of variation (CV| which is given as a percentage ratio of one standard deviation to the mean) as large as 130%. CH(4) fluxes ranged from -88.6 to 2|782.8 mu g C m(-2) h(-1) (with a CV of 849%). Net CH(4) emissions were only observed from cores taken from a marshland site| whereas all of the other 29 investigated sites showed net CH(4) uptake (mean: -33.3 mu g C m(-2) h(-1)). CO(2) emissions from all sites ranged from 3.6 to 109.3 mg C m(-2) h(-1)| with a mean value of 37.4 mg C m(-2) h(-1) and a CV of 66%. Soil moisture primarily and positively regulated the spatial variability in N(2)O and CO(2) emissions (R(2) = 0.15-0.28| P < 0.05). The spatial variation of N(2)O emissions was also influenced by soil inorganic N contents (P < 0.05). By simply up-scaling the site measurements by the various land-use/cover types to the entire catchment area (3|900 km(2))| the fluxes of N(2)O| CH(4) and CO(2) at the time of sampling (mid-summer 2007) were estimated at 29 t CO(2)-C-eq d(-1)| -26 t CO(2)-C-eq d(-1) and 3|223 t C d(-1)| respectively. This suggests that| in terms of assessing the spatial variability of total GHG fluxes from the soils at a semiarid catchment/region| intensive studies may focus on CO(2) exchange| which is dominating the global warming potential of midsummer soil-atmosphere GHG fluxes. In addition| average GHG fluxes in midsummer| weighted by the areal extent of these land-use/cover types in the region| were approximately -30.0 mu g C m(-2) h(-1) for CH(4)| 2.4 mu g N m(-2) h(-1) for N(2)O and 34.5 mg C m(-2) h(-1) for CO(2). 10602,2010,2,4,Spatial variation of the Arctic Oscillation and its long-term change,The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is spatially varied| but lack of study. The authors defined the spatial variation of AO as the temporal variation of the ensemble of grids with sea level pressure (SLP) varying consistent with the AO index in certain time span. The region of the ensemble is called as 'AO-dominant region'| identified by the running correlation coefficient of gridded SLP with the AO index. The positive and negative AO-dominant regions show that the SLP oscillated sometimes between the polar and mid-latitude regions and sometimes between land and ocean. Along the Atlantic-Pacific section| the North Atlantic Oscillation exists as a stationary seesaw-like dipole| while on the Pacific side the oscillation is intermittent with lower intensity and swinging boundary. The long-term spatial variation of the AO with three stages is clearly identified by the relative area of the SLP anomaly regions. Positive SLP anomaly area dominated before 1970| showing the state before the global warming. Negative SLP anomaly area dominated during 1971-1995| indicating the effect of global warming before the Arctic warming being apparent. Since 1996 both positive and negative SLP anomaly areas are all small| being possibly caused by the sea-ice retreat during the Arctic warming. 10740,2010,2,3,Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change,The statistical spatial-temporal features of the intense snowfall event (ISE) in China are investigated over the period of 1962-2000. The results indicate that eastern China| northern Xinjiang| the eastern Tibetan plateau| and northeastern China are four key regions for the ISE| with more frequency and strong variability. Annual cycle analysis shows the ISE exhibits a unimodal distribution with maximum frequency at winter months for eastern China| a bimodal distribution with maximum frequency at early winter and spring months for northern Xinjiang and northeastern China| and a bimodal distribution with maximum frequency at autumn and spring months for the eastern Tibetan plateau. Linear trend analysis indicates that in the last 39 years| the ISE exhibits a decreasing trend for eastern China and an increasing trend for northern Xinjiang and the eastern Tibetan plateau. The linear trend of the ISE is weak over northeastern China. Based on the simulations of the most recent and comprehensive climate models in the 20th century run| the performance of the current climate models in simulating the Chinese ISE is investigated. The results indicate that| of the 20 models| there are four models that can reasonably reproduce the spatial-temporal features of the Chinese ISE. Based on these four models' simulation for the 21st century under A1B and A2 scenarios| the future variability of the Chinese ISE is projected. It is found that global warming will cause the ISE frequency over southern China to decrease| while the ISE over northern China will initially increase and then decrease. 10875,2010,5,4,Spatiotemporal patterns of carbonate sedimentation in the South Atlantic: Implications for carbon cycling during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum,Rapid carbon input into the ocean-atmosphere system caused a dramatic shoaling of the lysocline during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM)| a transient (similar to 170 kyr) global warming event that occurred roughly 55 Ma. Carbon cycle models invoking an accelerated carbonate-silicate feedback mechanism to neutralize ocean acidification predict that the lysocline would subsequently deepen to depths below its original position as the marine carbonate system recovered from such a perturbation. To test this hypothesis| records of carbonate sedimentation and preservation for PETM sections in the Weddell Sea (ODP Site 690) and along the Walvis Ridge depth transect (ODP Sites 1262| 1263| and 1266) were assembled within the context of a unified chronostratigraphy. The meridional gradient of undersaturation delimited by these records shows that dissolution was more severe in the subtropical South Atlantic than in the Weddell Sea during the PETM| a spatiotemporal pattern inconsistent with the view that Atlantic overturning circulation underwent a transient reversal. Deepening of the lysocline following its initial ascent is signaled by increases in %CaCO(3) and coarse-fraction content at all sites. Carbonate preservation during the recovery period is appreciably better than that seen prior to carbon input with carbonate sedimentation becoming remarkably uniform over a broad spectrum of geographic and bathymetric settings. These congruent patterns of carbonate sedimentation confirm that the lysocline was suppressed below the depth it occupied prior to carbon input| and are consistent with the view that an accelerated carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle played an important role in arresting PETM conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 370,2010,2,4,Spatiotemporal Variations of Fire Frequency in Central Boreal Forest,Determination of the direct causal factors controlling wildfires is key to understanding wildfire-vegetation-climate dynamics in a changing climate and for developing sustainable management strategies for biodiversity conservation and maintenance of long-term forest productivity. In this study| we sought to understand how the fire frequency of a large mixedwood forest in the central boreal shield varies as a result of temporal and spatial factors. We reconstructed the fire history of an 11|600-km(2) area located in the northwestern boreal forest of Ontario| using archival data of large fires occurring since 1921 and dendrochronological dating for fires prior to 1921. The fire cycle decreased from 295 years for the period of 1820-1920 to approximately 100 years for the period of 1921-2008. Spatially| fire frequency increased with latitude| attributable to higher human activities that have increased fragmentation and fire suppression in the southern portion of the study area. Fire frequency also increased with distance to waterbodies| and was higher on Podzols that were strongly correlated with moderate drainage and coniferous vegetation. The temporal increase of fire frequency in the central region| unlike western and eastern boreal forests where fire frequency has decreased| may be a result of increased warm and dry conditions associated with climate change in central North America| suggesting that the response of wildfire to global climate change may be regionally individualistic. The significant spatial factors we found in this study are in agreement with other wildfire studies| indicating the commonality of the influences by physiographic features and human activities on regional fire regimes across the boreal forest. Overall| wildfire in the central boreal shield is more frequent than that in the wetter eastern boreal region and less frequent than that in the drier western boreal region| confirming a climatic top-down control on the fire activities of the entire North American boreal forest. 10501,2010,2,4,SPECIAL SECTION: RANGEWIDE ECOLOGY OF THE DECLINING RUSTY BLACKBIRD RUSTY BLACKBIRD: MYSTERIES OF A SPECIES IN DECLINE,The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) breeds across the boreal forest zone of North America and winters throughout the eastern United States. Over the past four decades| the North American Breeding Bird Survey and the Christmas Bird Count have shown high rates of population decline ranging from approximately 5 to 12% per year. Regional surveys suggest declines and range retractions in the southern boreal zone. Analyses of historical accounts suggest that the Rusty Blackbird's abundance has been dropping steadily for over a century. A number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the decline. The species relies on wooded wetlands throughout the year| so loss and degradation of these habitats-particularly in the winter range-is a prime suspect. Blackbird-control programs may have contributed. In recent decades| habitat disturbance| global warming| and environmental contamination in the boreal zone may have taken their toll on breeding populations. In 2005| the International Rusty Blackbird Working Group was formed to develop research efforts toward understanding the mysterious decline. This special section presents the group's research findings-the first on the species' use of breeding and winter habitat| reproductive success| parasite prevalence| patterns of molt| and migratory connectivity. Data on the levels of methylmercury in tissues and the role of timber management on reproductive success are intriguing. We outline research needed for assessment of the roles of various factors in causing the decline of the Rusty Blackbird. 487,2010,2,4,Species-Specific Growth Responses to Climate Variations in Understory Trees of a Central African Rain Forest,Basic knowledge of the relationships between tree growth and environmental variables is crucial for understanding forest dynamics and predicting vegetation responses to climate variations. Trees growing in tropical areas with a clear seasonality in rainfall often form annual growth rings. In the understory| however| tree growth is supposed to be mainly affected by interference for access to light and other resources. In the semi-deciduous Mayombe forest of the Democratic Republic of Congo| the evergreen species Aidia ochroleuca| Corynanthe paniculata and Xylopia wilwerthii dominate the understory. We studied their wood to determine whether they form annual growth rings in response to changing climate conditions. Distinct growth rings were proved to be annual and triggered by a common external factor for the three species. Species-specific site chronologies were thus constructed from the cross-dated individual growth-ring series. Correlation analysis with climatic variables revealed that annual radial stem growth is positively related to precipitation during the rainy season but at different months. The growth was found to associate with precipitation during the early rainy season for Aidia but at the end of the rainy season for Corynanthe and Xylopia. Our results suggest that a dendrochronological approach allows the understanding of climate-growth relationships in tropical forests| not only for canopy trees but also for evergreen understory species and thus arguably for the whole tree community. Global climate change influences climatic seasonality in tropical forest areas| which is likely to result in differential responses across species with a possible effect on forest composition over time. 10855,2010,4,2,Spectral analysis of solar variability and their possible role on global warming,In this study| the effect of solar variability on global warming has been studied. This enables us to understand the existence of solar variability effects on temperature. Monthly| four components that may be closely associated with the climate have been studied| which are geomagnetic activity index aa| solar sunspot number Rz from 1868 - 2008| global surface temperature (GST) from 1880 - 2008 and total solar irradiance TSI from 1978 - 2003. The clear 11-year variation was found in Rz| TSI and aa due to the variation of solar activity| while the 21.3 year variation was found only in GST. It is related to the changes in the polarity of main solar magnetic field| in which the obtained result demonstrates that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) effect is more powered on GST. It is believed that the solar and anthropogenic greenhouse forcing are roughly equal contributions to the rise in global temperature during the recent years. Finally| the power law index (n) for Rz and TSI have a higher value than aa and GST. However| this indicates that the modulations of PSD of Rz and TSI are higher than the PSD of the others. 10816,2010,4,4,Spectroscopic study of CHBrF(2) up to 9500 cm(-1): Vibrational analysis| integrated band intensities| and ab initio calculations,The gas-phase infrared spectra of bromodifluoromethane| CHBrF(2)| have been examined at medium resolution in the range of 200-9500 cm(-1). The assignment of the absorptions in terms of fundamental| overtone| combination| and hot bands| assisted by quantum chemical calculations is consistent all over the region investigated. Accurate values of integrated band intensities have also been determined for the first time in the range of 500-6000 cm(-1). Structural and molecular spectroscopic properties have been calculated at high level of theory. The coupled cluster CCSD(T) method in conjunction with a hierarchical series of correlation consistent basis sets has been employed and extrapolation to complete basis set has been considered for the equilibrium geometry. Vibrational analysis based on the second order perturbation theory has been carried out with the ab initio anharmonic force constants calculated using the second order Moller-Plesset perturbation as well as coupled cluster [CCSD(T)] theory. A good agreement between the computed and the experimental data also including the integrated infrared band intensities has been obtained. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3460922] 11457,2010,2,4,Spiny east Mediterranean plant species flower later and in a drier season than non-spiny species,We compared the flowering phenology of spiny and non-spiny native species belonging to three families (Asteraceae| Fabaceae and Lamiaceae)| which include the highest number of spiny species in the flora of Israel. We found that the peak of flowering (when the highest number of species flowered) was 4-8 weeks later for spiny species than for non-spiny species. The flowering peak of non-spiny species was in late March| while that of spiny species was at the beginning of May. The seasonal shift in flowering time from the main season| when most Mediterranean plants bloom| to the end of the flowering season| when fewer species bloom| might be the evolutionary result of a change in phenology reducing the competition for pollinators. Our results clearly indicate that spinescence of plants in the semi-arid east Mediterranean region is associated with a delayed flowering season at the beginning of the dry summer when most of the herbaceous vegetation is already dry. During this season| mammalian grazers consume any edible herbaceous vegetation| selecting for late flowering species that allocate more resources for anti-herbivore defenses than early flowering species. There is a well-known global geographical trend where the occurrence of spiny plants is higher in arid regions than in humid ones. In parallel to the global trend| we show a seasonal one| that non-spiny plants grow and flower in the spring| which is the main flowering season in the Mediterranean basin| while spiny plants flower later| in the hot and dry summer. Under the current trend of global warming| there are prospects of future increase in the dominance of spiny species in the Mediterranean region. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 10646,2010,4,3,Spline models of contemporary| 2030| 2060 and 2090 climates for Mexico and their use in understanding climate-change impacts on the vegetation,Spatial climate models were developed for M|xico and its periphery (southern USA| Cuba| Belize and Guatemala) for monthly normals (1961-1990) of average| maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation using thin plate smoothing splines of ANUSPLIN software on ca. 3|800 observations. The fit of the model was generally good: the signal was considerably less than one-half of the number of observations| and reasonable standard errors for the surfaces would be less than 1A degrees C for temperature and 10-15% for precipitation. Monthly normals were updated for three time periods according to three General Circulation Models and three emission scenarios. On average| mean annual temperature would increase 1.5A degrees C by year 2030| 2.3A degrees C by year 2060 and 3.7A degrees C by year 2090; annual precipitation would decrease -6.7% by year 2030| -9.0% by year 2060 and -18.2% by year 2090. By converting monthly means into a series of variables relevant to biology (e. g.| degree-days > 5A degrees C| aridity index)| the models are directly suited for inferring plant-climate relationships and| therefore| in assessing impact of and developing programs for accommodating global warming. Programs are outlined for (a) assisting migration of four commercially important species of pine distributed in altitudinal sequence in Michoacan State (b) developing conservation programs in the floristically diverse Tehuacan Valley| and (c) perpetuating Pinus chiapensis| a threatened endemic. Climate surfaces| point or gridded climatic estimates and maps are available at"http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/ 10669,2010,4,3,Stable Isotope Probing Analysis of the Diversity and Activity of Methanotrophic Bacteria in Soils from the Canadian High Arctic,The melting of permafrost and its potential impact on CH(4) emissions are major concerns in the context of global warming. Methanotrophic bacteria have the capacity to mitigate CH(4) emissions from melting permafrost. Here| we used quantitative PCR (qPCR)| stable isotope probing (SIP) of DNA| denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) fingerprinting| and sequencing of the 16S rRNA and pmoA genes to study the activity and diversity of methanotrophic bacteria in active-layer soils from Ellesmere Island in the Canadian high Arctic. Results showed that most of the soils had the capacity to oxidize CH(4) at 4 degrees C and at room temperature (RT)| but the oxidation rates were greater at RT than at 4 degrees C and were significantly enhanced by nutrient amendment. The DGGE banding patterns associated with active methanotrophic bacterial populations were also different depending on the temperature of incubation and the addition of nutrients. Sequencing of the 16S rRNA and pmoA genes indicated a low diversity of the active methanotrophic bacteria| with all methanotroph 16S rRNA and pmoA gene sequences being related to type I methanotrophs from Methylobacter and Methylosarcina. The dominance of type I methanotrophs over type II methanotrophs in the native soil samples was confirmed by qPCR of the 16S rRNA gene with primers specific for these two groups of bacteria. The 16S rRNA and pmoA gene sequences related to those of Methylobacter tundripaludum were found in all soils| regardless of the incubation conditions| and they might therefore play a role in CH(4) degradation in situ. This work is providing new information supporting the potential importance of Methylobacter spp. in Arctic soils found in previous studies and contributes to the limited body of knowledge on methanotrophic activity and diversity in this extreme environment. 10690,2010,5,4,State-space model for proxy-based millennial reconstruction,It is important to study historical temperature time series prior to the industrial revolution so that one can view the current global warming trend from a long-term historical perspective. Because there are no instrumental records of such historical temperature data| climatologists have been interested in reconstructing historical temperatures using various proxy time series. In this paper| the authors examine a state-space model approach for historical temperature reconstruction which not only makes use of the proxy data but also information on external forcings. A challenge in the implementation of this approach is the estimation of the parameters in the state-space model. The authors developed two maximum likelihood methods for parameter estimation and studied the efficiency and asymptotic properties of the associated estimators through a combination of theoretical and numerical investigations. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 488-505; 2010 (C )2010 Crown in the right of Canada 10404,2010,2,4,Statistical properties of record-breaking temperatures,A record-breaking temperature is the highest or lowest temperature at a station since the period of time considered began. The temperatures at a station constitute a time series. After the removal of daily and annual periodicities| the primary considerations are trends (i.e.| global warming) and long-range correlations. We first carry out Monte Carlo simulations to determine the influence of trends and long-range correlations on record-breaking statistics. We take a time series that is a Gaussian white noise and give the classic record-breaking theory results for an independent and identically distributed process. We then carry out simulations to determine the influence of long-range correlations and linear temperature trends. For the range of fractional Gaussian noises that are observed to be applicable to temperature time series| the influence on the record-breaking statistics is less than 10%. We next superimpose a linear trend on a Gaussian white noise and extend the theory to include the effect of an additive trend. We determine the ratios of the number of maximum to the number of minimum record-breaking temperatures. We find the single governing parameter to be the ratio of the temperature change per year to the standard deviation of the underlying white noise. To test our approach| we consider a 30 yr record of temperatures at the Mauna Loa Observatory for 1977-2006. We determine the temperature trends by direct measurements and use our simulations to infer trends from the number of record-breaking temperatures. The two approaches give values that are in good agreement. We find that the warming trend is primarily due to an increase in the (overnight) minimum temperatures| while the maximum (daytime) temperatures are approximately constant. 491,2010,2,3,Status of Peatland Degradation and Development in Sumatra and Kalimantan,Peatlands cover around 13 Mha in Sumatra and Kalimantan| Indonesia. Human activities have rapidly increased in the peatland ecosystems during the last two decades| invariably degrading them and making them vulnerable to fires. This causes high carbon emissions that contribute to global climate change. For this article| we used 94 high resolution (10-20 m) satellite images to map the status of peatland degradation and development in Sumatra and Kalimantan using visual image interpretation. The results reveal that less than 4% of the peatland areas remain covered by pristine peatswamp forests (PSFs)| while 37% are covered by PSFs with varying degree of degradation. Furthermore| over 20% is considered to be unmanaged degraded landscape| occupied by ferns| shrubs and secondary growth. This alarming extent of degradation makes peatlands vulnerable to accelerated peat decomposition and catastrophic fire episodes that will have global consequences. With on-going degradation and development the existence of the entire tropical peatland ecosystem in this region is in great danger. 10408,2010,3,4,Strategic plan for the development of core technologies for the Korean advanced nuclear power reactor for export,With the soaring oil price and worsening global warming| nuclear power has attracted considerable attention on a global scale and a new large market of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is expected. The Korean government aims to export up to 10 NPPs by 2012| based on the successful export of 2 NPPs to the UAE in 2009. It is also going to develop a follow-up model of the Advanced Power Reactor (APR) 1400| and join the world's NPP market under the banner of Korea's original reactor type. For this| it promulgated the strategic plan| NuTech 2012| a technology development plan intended for the early acquisition of core technologies for the Korean advanced NPP design and domestic production of the main components in NPP. This paper introduces the strategic plan of NuTech 2012. 11536,2010,3,4,Strategy for Overcoming Cost Hurdles of Plug-In-Hybrid Battery in California Integrating Post-Vehicle Secondary Use Values,Advances in electric drive technology| including lithium ion batteries as well as the development of strong policy drivers such as California's Global Warming Solutions Act| now contribute to a more promising market environment for the widespread introduction of plug-in vehicles in California. Nevertheless| battery costs remain high. This study explores a strategy for overcoming the significant hurdle to electric transportation fuel use presented by high battery costs. It describes offsetting plug-in-vehicle battery costs with value derived from post-vehicle stationary use of hybrid batteries and quantifies the possible effect the net present value that several of these benefits might have on battery lease payments. With a focus on blended-mode plug-in hybrids with minimized battery size| even the subset of values explored (regulation| peak power| arbitrage| and some carbon reduction credit) promises to lower battery lease payments while simultaneously allowing vehicle upgrades and profitable repurposing of vehicle batteries for stationary use as grid support| electrical storage and generation devices. Such stationary| post-vehicle battery-to-grid devices could not only provide valuable services needed by existing statewide grid-support markets but could also provide customer side benefits| improve utility operation| help defer costly grid upgrades| and potentially support the profitability and penetration of intermittent renewable energy. 560,2010,4,4,Stream geochemistry as an indicator of increasing permafrost thaw depth in an arctic watershed,The presence of permafrost has a strong influence on arctic hydrology| ecology| and engineering. Therefore| understanding the response of permafrost to arctic warming is critical to predicting the regional effects of global climate change. Recent research suggests that thaw depth may be increasing in response to warming| but physical thaw depth surveys in the Alaskan arctic are often not sensitive enough to detect incremental increases and cannot measure increases in the permafrost thaw bulbs beneath lakes and streams. Here we assess the use of geochemical tracers in stream water to identify changes in thaw depth in an arctic watershed. Based on marked differences in geochemistry with depth in soils and permafrost on the Alaskan North Slope| we used (87)Sr/(86)Sr and elemental ratios in an arctic stream as tracers of increases in the maximum depth of soil water flow and therefore the integrated thaw depth in the watershed. From 1994 to 2004| stream water (87)Sr/(86)Sr| Ca/Na| and Ca/Ba at base flow showed significant trends with time| consistent with increasing depth of soil water flowpaths. Although long time series will be necessary to identify long-term trends| stream geochemistry may be useful as a qualitative indicator of changes in thaw depth in other areas where permafrost and active layer soil geochemistry differs. (C) 2010 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved. 598,2010,2,4,Streamflow responses to vegetation manipulations along a gradient of precipitation in the Colorado River Basin,The Colorado River Basin has been| and continues to be| the focus of a wide diversity of research efforts to learn more about the effects of natural and human-induced disturbances on the processes and functioning of the basin's upland watersheds. These watersheds are situated at the headwaters of streams and rivers that supply much of the water to downstream users in the western United States. Responses of streamflow to vegetation manipulations have been| and are| one of the research foci in this water-deficient part of the country. The watershed-scale research| led by the U.S. Forest Service and its cooperators| has spanned nearly a century and included an array of vegetation types along a wide range of precipitation gradients. Results from this research have shown that vegetation can be managed to enhance annual water yields while still providing the other natural resource benefits. Analyses of the research results suggest that the effect of vegetation manipulation on streamflow is associated with precipitation-elevational gradient and| therefore| vegetation type. An annual water yield increase between 25 and 100 mm could be achieved by implementing vegetation manipulations in the high elevation subalpine and mixed conifer forests| the ponderosa pine forests (in the Lower Basin)| and portions of the low elevation chaparral shrublands. Negligible effects or small increases in water yield were observed for treating sagebrush| pinyon-juniper woodland and desert scrubs. Results from this research have improved our understanding of the basin's hydrology and provided much needed insights to manage forest to mitigate global climate change induced hydrologic impact and meet the increased needs of people living in the basin. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11225,2010,2,4,Streamflow Trends and Climate Variability Impacts in Poyang Lake Basin| China,Under the background of global warming| does the effect of the rising global surface temperature accelerate the hydrological cycle? To address this issue| we use the hydro-climatic data from five sub-basins in Poyang Lake basin in the southeast China over the past 50 years| to investigate the annual and seasonal trends of streamflow and the correlations between streamflow and climatic variables. The Theil-Sen Approach and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test are applied to identify the trends in the annual and seasonal streamflow| precipitation and evapotranspiration series. It was found that annual and seasonal streamflow of all the stations had increasing trends except Lijiadu station in wet season. Only 37.5% hydro-stations in annual streamflow increased significantly| while most stations increased at 95% significance level in dry season. Trends in annual and seasonal precipitation during the whole period were generally not as significant as those in evapotranspiration. The correlations between streamflow and climate variables (precipitation and evapotranspiration) were detected by the Pearson's test. The results showed that streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin are more sensitive to changes in precipitation than potential evapotranspiration. 520,2010,3,4,Structure| Function| Application| and Ecological Benefit of a Single-slope| Energy-efficient Solar Greenhouse in China,Single-slope| energy-efficient solar greenhouses in China use solar energy as the sole source of light and heat for winter crop production in the region between latitudes 32 degrees N and 43 degrees N. The use of solar greenhouses has greatly reduced energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions. Solar greenhouses are the best structure for growing winter horticultural crops in China| and have been adopted by countries such as Japan| Korea| and Russia. Increased proliferation of efficient solar greenhouses in China may contribute to solving worldwide problems such as the energy crisis and global climate change. This article summarizes the structure| function| application| and ecological benefits of energy-efficient| single-slope solar greenhouses in China| based on 20 years of systematic studies. We hope this technology can be applied to regions of similar climate to help reduce energy consumption and CO(2) emissions. 10497,2010,3,4,Study of Air-Conditioning Load: Comparison of Steel and RC Residence Units,Recently| the fight against global warming is becoming increasingly important. Being major energy consumers| air-conditioning (AC) loads are gaining importance. Therefore| the effects of heat insulation methods and AC usage patterns on AC loads should be verified before a building is constructed. This paper examines the AC loads of two typical residential units of steel (S) and reinforced concrete (RC). To compare and analyze these cases| THERB| software for dynamic simulation of the thermal environment of residential buildings| is employed to simulate the loads. Three common patterns based on the lifestyle in Japan are applied in this study to show that different family makeup can lead to varying AC loads. Further| two RC units (exterior wall insulated on the inside/outside) and one S unit (exterior wall insulated on the inside) are studied. The results reveal that the high heat capacity of concrete influences the living environment and causes differences between the RC and S units. The AC load of an RC unit with an exterior wall that is insulated on the inside is lower than that of a unit with an exterior wall that is insulated on the outside and is almost equal to that of the S unit. 11223,2010,3,4,Study of full-scale elements of a ferrocement roof system for Caribbean application,The Caribbean region is exposed to hurricanes annually and the frequency of occurrence is expected to increase due to global warming. However| as revealed due to hurricane Ivan in 2004| the current roofing systems of the houses are particularly vulnerable. In other parts of the world ferrocement roofing is a technically and economically viable solution but for acceptance in the Caribbean| the aesthetic factor controls the roof design in terms of topology prompting a new innovative solution. Load test data is also required by the approving agencies of the various jurisdictions in the Caribbean. The results of structural testing of the full-scale main components of a proposed ferrocement roof system are presented. This comprises of a 9.0 m wide and 2.5 m high pitched-portal frame of channel-section with bolted steel connections; a 6.10 m hollow-section roof slab in bending| and slab-to-frame bolted connections in pullout. It was found that the performance of the elements is consistent with the acknowledged beneficial behavior of ferrocement| and the proposed ferrocement roof system should adequately address the loading conditions expected in the Caribbean. The data can also be used to determine safe spans of the proposed roof system for application in other regions as well. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10792,2010,3,3,Study on Effect Factors for CO(2) Hydrate Rapid Formation in a Water-Spraying Apparatus,To study effect factors on the rapid formation of CO(2) hydrate| which has a high capacity for storage of CO(2) to weaken global warming impacts| a specific visual water-spraying gas hydrate formation apparatus was designed. The gas consumption in the process of hydrate formation (in the initial pressure range of 2.1-3.5 MPa and initial temperature range of 1.5-3.0 degrees C) was observed| and the induction time| mole formation rate| and gas storage density within 1 h had been analyzed systematically under different gas supply modes| initial pressures| water volumes| and nozzle atomizing angles; also| the formation heat had been induced. Results showed that the hydrate formation rate| gas storage density| and total formation heat in the reactor were larger in the condition of the oscillating gas supply mode than continuous for the larger mass-transfer driving force caused by pressure disturbance in the former mode or| in a higher initial pressure| with a larger volume of water and nozzle atomizing angle. A larger volume of water in a reasonable range is beneficial for hydrate formation for a relatively larger dissolution quality| and a larger nozzle atomizing angle is also favorable because of higher gas liquid contact probability and larger contact area. Also| with a higher driving force| it can be realized that the morphology of hydrate particles transited from spherical to branching more quickly by the camera online observation of hydrate growth| for larger Gibbs free-energy differences of the phase transition. 10444,2010,3,4,Study on expansion power recovery in CO(2) trans-critical cycle,Due to the ozone depletion potential and global warming potential of CFCs and HCFCs. CO(2) is considered as most potential alternative refrigerant. However| there are serious throttle losses and low system efficiency to CO(2) trans-critical cycle because of its low critical temperature and high operating pressure. The aim of this paper is to design an expander to recover expansion power in CO(2) trans-critical cycle. The theoretical analysis and calculation show that 14-23% of input power of compressor can be recovered. A prototype of rolling piston expander is designed and manufactured and its test facility is established. The test facility consists of CO(2) trans-critical cycle| the expander| the chilling water system and the cooling water system. The experimental results show that the recovery ratio and expander efficiency are affected by rotational speed| inlet temperature and mass flow of expander. The highest recovery ratio can reach to 0.145| which means 14.5% of input power of compressor can be recovered. The expander efficiency can reach to 45%. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 508,2010,2,4,Study on rainfall variations in the middle part of Inner Mongolia| China during the past 43 years,The study area| the middle part of Inner Mongolia including Hohhot city| Baotou city| Wulanchabu city| Ordos city| Bayannaoer city and Wuhai city| is one of typical eco-geographical transition zones in China. Using monthly precipitation data (1961-2003) from 45 meteorological stations in the study area| this paper analyzes characteristics and tendencies of annual and seasonal rainfall variations| and reveals multi-time scales structures of these time series through wavelet analyses; also| the periods of annual and seasonal precipitation series are identified| and the periodical oscillations and points of abrupt change at the principal period scale are discovered. The results show that annual precipitation varies in a large range| and has an ascending tendency at an increasing rate of 1.482 mm/10a; the multi-time scales periodical oscillations are clear; differences in tendencies| ranges and decadal precipitation anomalies exist within each decade during 1961-2000. The seasonal allocation of overall annual precipitation is extremely uneven; in terms of tendencies of seasonal precipitation| winter and spring have upward trends while summer and autumn have downward tendencies; distinctions in tendencies| ranges and decadal precipitation anomalies among each seasons are in existence within each decade during 1961-2000. The periodical oscillations of each seasonal precipitation time series are also evident. The research results not only provide convincing evidence for global climate change research| but also facilitate the understanding of specific natural process and pattern to make steps to rehabilitate and reconstruct vegetation| and contribute to fulfill the sustainability of water management. 11218,2010,4,4,Studying the physical basis of global warming: thermal effects of the interaction between radiation and matter and greenhouse effect,We present a teaching module dealing with the thermal effects of interaction between radiation and matter| the infrared emission of bodies and the greenhouse effect devoted to university level and teacher education. The module stresses the dependence of the optical properties of materials (transparency| absorptivity and emissivity) on radiation frequency| as a result of interaction between matter and radiation. Multiple experiences are suggested to favour a progressive construction of knowledge on the physical aspects necessary to understand the greenhouse effect and global warming. Some results obtained with university students are briefly reported. 582,2010,2,4,Sub-littoral and supra-littoral amphipods respond differently to acute thermal stress,Thermal tolerance was determined in two closely related amphipod species from contrasting environments (sub-littoral and supra-littoral zones of the sea) using HSP expression and the activity of antioxidant enzymes. The levels of HSP70 and small HSPs present in untreated control animals were higher in the supra-littoral Orchestia gammarellus than in the sub-littoral Gammarus oceanicus. Under the acute thermal stress| HSP levels increased less strongly in O. gammarellus than in G. oceanicus. Activities of antioxidant enzymes peroxidase| catalase and glutathione S-transferase| were more pronounced in the supra-littoral O. gammarellus then in the sub-littoral G. oceanicus. We conclude that the environmental temperature regime modifies key cellular defense mechanisms in amphipods. Higher levels of constitutive HSP synthesis and higher levels of antioxidant enzymes in the supra-littoral species likely reflects adaptation to this highly thermally variable environment. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 11362,2010,2,4,Summer warming effects on biomass production and clonal growth of Leymus chinensis,Understanding how the biomass production and clone growth of perennial grasses respond to summer warming is crucial for understanding how grassland productivity responds to global warming. Here| we experimentally investigated the effects of summer warming on the biomass production and clonal growth of potted Leymus chinensis in a phytotron. Summer warming significantly decreased the biomass of both parent and daughter shoots| slightly increased the belowground biomass| and lead to a significant increase in root : shoot ratio. Warming significantly increased the total belowground bud number and decreased the daughter shoot number. Importantly| the proportions of each type of bud changed; vertical apical rhizome buds decreased| while horizontal rhizome buds increased in number. The change in proportions of each type of bud is closely related to the decrease in daughter shoot number| rhizome number and length| as well as the decrease in aboveground biomass and increase in belowground biomass. These results indicate that| as a rhizomatous| perennial grass| L. chinensis adopts a selective growth strategy that reduces the energy allocated to aboveground growth and emphasises the development of belowground organs. The implication is that continued summer warming| will further reduce the aboveground biomass production of temperate grasslands dominated by rhizomatous| perennial grasses. Inevitably| species that depend on these grasses for forage will suffer should global climate warming continue. 11398,2010,4,4,Surface air temperature variability over India during 1901-2007| and its association with ENSO,Seasonal and annual trends in surface air temperature over India and 7 homogeneous regions (western Himalaya| northwest| north-central| northeast| east coast| west coast and interior peninsula) were assessed during 3 periods: 1901-2007| 1971-2007 and 1998-2007. Indian annual mean (average of maximum and minimum)| maximum and minimum temperatures showed significant warming trends of 0.51| 0.72 and 0.27 degrees C 100 yr(-1)| respectively| during the period 1901-2007. However| accelerated warming was observed in the recent period 1971-2007| mainly due to intense warming in the recent decade 1998-2007. Temperatures (mean| maximum and minimum) increased by about 0.2 degrees C per decade for the period 1971-2007| with a much steeper increase in minimum temperature than maximum temperature. In the most recent decade| maximum temperature was significantly higher compared to the long-term (1901-2007) mean| with a stagnated trend during this period| whereas minimum temperature showed an increasing trend| almost equal to that observed during 1971-2007. On a seasonal scale| pronounced warming trends in mean temperature were observed in winter and monsoon seasons| and a significant influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation events on temperature anomalies during certain seasons across India was observed. The composites of maximum and minimum temperatures of El Nino years showed positive anomalies during monsoon| post-monsoon and subsequent year winter and pre-monsoon seasons. However| statistically significant positive anomalies were observed only during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons over large areas of the country. The composite temperature anomalies of La Nina years were almost opposite to El Nino composites: the negative temperature anomalies associated with La Nina events persisted from the current monsoon season to the subsequent year pre-monsoon season. 11459,2010,3,4,Surface modification of cathode materials from nano- to microscale for rechargeable lithium-ion batteries,The present concern with global warming urgently requires a large increase in the energy share provided by green| renewable energy sources| as well as massive commercialization of sustainable vehicles. The widespread availability of reliable energy storage systems and highly efficient lithium batteries can| in principle| meet this need. For example| many individuals already own at least one lithium-ion battery portable device| such as a cellular phone| MP3 player| digital camera| or laptop computer. Hybrid electric vehicles and full electric vehicles will sooner or later be marketed with lithium-ion batteries. However| to acquire an established role in the commercial sector| lithium-ion batteries must be improved with regard to energy density| cost| and particularly| safety. Further development of electrode materials| especially the cathode active materials| is important to satisfy the above requirements. The easiest route to cathode improvement is to modify the cathode surface. This article describes recent advances in cathode active materials with surface modification from the nano-to microscale. 11073,2010,2,4,Surface temperature spatial and temporal variations in North America from homogenized satellite SMMR-SSM/I microwave measurements and reanalysis for 1979-2008,We have developed procedures for deriving land surface temperature and homogenizing 30 years of daily microwave brightness temperatures from the NOAA/NASA Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (DMSP SSM/I) Pathfinder EASE-Grid database. Processing includes normalization of variable acquisition overpass time| removing the effects of changing satellite orbits| intercalibration of sensors| and filling gaps between missing data. The derived new database over North America (above 45 degrees N)| limited to snow-free periods| provides the first estimate of the trends of consistent mean daily summer land surface temperature over the last three decades. By comparison with near-surface air temperatures derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 year Reanalysis (ERA-40)| the National Centers for Environmental Prediction North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR)| and the exhaustive ground-based meteorological measurements across Canada| we highlighted significant systematic biases in the satellite-derived surface temperatures for the 1983-1991 period| spanning from the second half of Nimbus 7 SMMR lifetime (1983-1987; mean bias of -0.87 degrees C compared to ERA-40) and the entire period of DMSP-F8 SSM/I lifetime (1987-1991; mean bias of -1.56 degrees C compared to ERA-40). The biased data were corrected with use of a relative offset derived from ERA-40 and DMSP-F11/F13 mean difference over the 1992-2002 period. The comparison of corrected data from the 9 day overlap between SMMR and DMSP-F8 SSM/I and from ground-based meteorological measurements over the 1983-1991 biased period shows the usefulness of the correction method. The mean difference between corrected satellite-derived surface temperature and in situ meteorological air temperature is +0.05 degrees C +/- 1.85 degrees C for the entire period (1979-2008). The NARR data appear| in general| to be too warm by about 1 degrees C. The satellite-derived homogenized database gives new observational evidence for global warming over North American regions (mean summer temperature trend of +0.018 degrees C/a throughout the studied period) with regional variable trends| in agreement with reanalysis and in situ measurement trends. However| over the Canadian Arctic tundra| the increase in observed land surface temperatures appears slightly less than the estimates based on near-surface air temperature. 427,2010,2,4,Surface Water Metabolism Potential in a Tropical Estuary| Hilo Bay| Hawai'i| USA| During Storm and Non-storm Conditions,Surface water gross primary production potential (pGPP)| respiration (RESP)| metabolism potential (pMET)| and CO(2) fluxes in Hilo Bay| Hawai'i| USA| were examined along two river plumes during storm (high-flow) and non-storm (low-flow) conditions. Significant differences in pGPP| RESP| and pMET were found between low- and high-flow conditions| with lowest rates of all processes occurring during high-flow conditions. CO(2) fluxes were influenced by metabolic processes at all but one site| with the bay's surface waters being autotrophic and a sink for atmospheric CO(2) during low-flow conditions and less autotrophic and a source of atmospheric CO(2) during high-flow conditions. Significant differences in pMET were found between the two river plumes during low-flow conditions at spatial scales of 1.5 km; however| no differences between river plumes were found during high-flow conditions. Our study suggests that an increase in storms associated with global climate change could impact surface water metabolic dynamics of tropical estuaries. 10813,2010,4,3,Surfing the nanowaves 2: Non-equilibrium thermodynamics of the gas-liquid interface,The ultimate magnitude of global warming is likely to be limited mainly by the rate of absorption of CO(2) by the oceans. Model calculations of this limit need to take account of the effect of the temperature gradient at the ocean surface on the effective saturation pressure of CO(2) above that surface. We present a description of this and other unfamiliar phenomena in terms of Onsager's irreversible thermodynamics. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11346,2010,2,4,Survival| growth and regeneration in explants of four temperate gorgonian species in the Mediterranean Sea,During the last few decades| Mediterranean epibenthic assemblages have been involved in mass mortality events| in which sea fans were one of the most threatened groups. Explants of the most common Mediterranean gorgonians (Paramuricea clavata| Eunicella cavolinii| E. singularis| and E. verrucosa| 40 explants from each species) were transplanted in the field in order to evaluate the response to transplantation| survival and growth rate of the cuttings during an annual cycle| from February 2003 to March 2004. Colonies of each species overcame transplantation stress and during the first three months they showed a mean survival rate of 98% and an average positive growth rate of 7.65%. In the summer season 2003| during the heatwave that affected the Mediterranean basin| the experimental cuttings suffered| showing a mean negative growth rate and a reduction of survival. At the end of the stress event| P. clavata revealed the worst recovery while all Eunicella species showed a good ability to recover. In particular| E. singularis evidenced the highest resilience among the species. The transplant method described here could be employed to try to recover sea fan populations in the precoralligenous and coralligenous communities in possible future projects of restocking| where anthropic activities (anchoring and/or fishing) and global warming are deeply compromising their survival. Moreover| a species-specific capability to recover was identified after the stress event concomitant to the increase of the sea temperature. 490,2010,3,3,Sustainability of ruminant agriculture in the new context: feeding strategies and features of animal adaptability into the necessary holistic approach,There are numerous recent studies highlighting sustainability problems for the development of ruminant production systems (RPS) while facing increasing human food necessities and global climate change. Despite the complexity of the context| in our view the main objectives of the ruminants' physiologist should be convergent for both industrialized (IC) and developing countries (DC) in a common and global strategy of advancing knowledge. In DC| this means improving the efficiency of RPS| taking into account the unique possibility of using rangelands. For IC settings| RPS should be revisited in terms of autonomy and environment- friendly feeding and managing practices. Assuming that competition for feed/food use is still a crucial criterion| future ruminant feeding systems (FeSyst) should preferably focus on lignocellulosic sources. According to biome distributions| and the recent increases in volumes of crop residues and their by-products| the annually renewed volumes of these biomasses are considerable. Therefore| we need to redesign our strategies for their efficient utilization at the local level. For this purpose| digestion processes and rumen functioning need to be better understood. The renewed vision of ruminal digestion through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is also a key aspect as it is an environmental demand that cannot be ignored. With regard to other ruminants' physiological functions| accumulated knowledge could be mobilized into an integrative approach that puts forward the adaptive capacities of animals to face variability in quantity and quality of supplied feeds. Basically| the reduction of inputs that were traditionally used to ensure FeSyst will need more flexible animals. In that sense| the concepts of homeostasis and teleophorhesis need to be updated and adapted to domestic species and breeds that were until now largely excluded from the dominant productive systems. In conclusion| a more holistic approach of research targets is required in which physiological functions and farmers' practices must converge and respond to each particular situation in an integral| dynamic and flexible conceptual perspective. From a scientific point of view| both for ICs and DCs| a broader range of experimental scenarios should be explored in order to arrive at innovative practices and solutions that respect environmental| ethical and economical issues. The clear challenge is to in evaluate the sustainability of RPSs. This includes| in our opinion| a strong interaction with other disciplines (multi- and trans-disciplinary conception)| thus structuring new relevant indicators for the evaluation sustainability. 11439,2010,3,3,Sustainability: the capacity of smokeless biomass pyrolysis for energy production| global carbon capture and sequestration,Smokeless biomass pyrolysis for biochar and biofuel production is a possible arsenal for global carbon capture and sequestration at gigatons of carbon (GtC) scales. The United States can annually harvest over 1.3 Gt (gigaton) of dry biomass. Use of the smokeless (clean and efficient) biomass-pyrolysis technology would enable the United States to converts its 1.3 Gt of annually harvestable biomass to biochar products equivalent to 325 million tons of stable carbon plus significant amount of biofuels including syngas and bio-oils. Currently| the world could annually harvest more than 6.5 GtC y(-1) of biomass. The 6.5 GtC y(-1) of biomass could be converted to biochar (3.25 GtC y(-1)) and biofuels (with heating value equivalent to that of 6500 million barrels of crude oil). Because biochar is mostly not digestible to microorganisms| a biochar-based soil amendment could serve as a permanent carbon-sequestration agent in soils/subsoil earth layers for thousands of years. By storing 3.25 GtC y(-1) of biochar (equivalent to 11.9 Gt of CO(2) per year) into soil and/or underground reservoirs alone| it would offset the world's 8.67 GtC y(-1) of fossil fuel CO(2) emissions by about 38%. The worldwide maximum capacity for storing biochar carbon into agricultural soils (1411 million hectares) is estimated to be about 428 GtC. It may be also possible to provide a global carbon "thermostat" mechanism by creating biochar carbon energy storage reserves. This biomass-pyrolysis "carbon-negative" energy approach merits serious research and development worldwide to help provide clean energy and control global warming for a sustainable future of human civilization on Earth. 471,2010,3,3,Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change,Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon| while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist| however| regarding the impact| capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2))| methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8Pg CO(2)-C equivalent (CO(2)-C(e)) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO(2)-C(e) emissions; 1Pg = 1Gt)| and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO(2)-C(e)| without endangering food security| habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy| except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset. 10425,2010,3,2,Sustainable Energy-Efficient Wireless Applications Using Light,As we step further into the 21st century| the demand for sustainable energy-efficient technology grows higher. The important area of electric lighting| currently dominated by decades-old incandescent and fluorescent sources| is being taken over by white light emitting diodes| which are solid state devices with much greater energy savings. Replacement of current inefficient lighting by these LEDs will result in reduction of global carbon dioxide emissions| a major cause of global warming| among other things. WLEDs hold the potential| in the field of photonics| to be as transformational as the transistor was in electronics. This core device has the potential to revolutionize how we use light| including not only for illumination| but also for communications| sensing| navigation| imaging| and many more applications. In this tutorial we highlight some of the potentials. 11338,2010,3,4,Sustainable tillage: results from long-term field experiments on Cambisol,The goal of this paper is to present the newly obtained data on the changes in soil physical and chemical properties| weed incidence and crop yielding capacity from the long-term tillage experiments| lasting for more than 10 successive years| carried out in the middle lowland of Lithuania on an Endocalcari-Epihypogleyic Cambisol (CMg-p-w-can)| at the Institute of Agriculture| Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry. It was revealed that conventional tillage (CT) produced the best soil physical properties (the lowest bulk density| cone penetration resistance| and the highest air permeability). Significantly worse soil physical properties were registered after no-tillage (NT) application| while under global warming conditions the application of the NT system may be the right measure to preserve soil moisture at the early stage of crop development. NT caused higher soil total N| available P(2)O(5) and K(2)O stratification in the soil during crop rotation period compared to reduced tillage (RT) and CT. Effectiveness of moderate rate of NPK fertilisers on loam decreased in this order according to tillage intensity: CT -> RT -> NT| while on sandy loam the effectiveness of moderate rate of NPK fertilisers tended to increase in the same tillage order. Application of high rate of fertilisers on loam was ineffective in CT and RT systems| but in NT system this measure increased metabolizable energy (ME) by 16% compared to moderately fertilised treatments. Efficacy of high rate of fertilisers on sandy loam was not significant in all tillage systems investigated compared to moderately fertilised treatments. The heavier weeds population| the more favourable conditions for herbicide action were created. Therefore a combination of NT and glyphosate application on sandy loam was less effective than mechanical weed control in CT and RT. In CT treatment the changes in weed incidence were irregular in a 4-course crop rotation in the experiment set up in 1956. Application of both RT systems tended to decrease weed mass during the experimental period. NT application produced significantly lesser amount of ME during an 8-course crop rotation| compared to CT and RT on both loam and sandy loam. 413,2010,2,4,Synchrony of butterfly populations across species' geographic ranges,Understanding the mechanisms by which global climate change and habitat loss impact upon biodiversity is essential in order to mitigate any negative impacts. One such impact may be changes to population synchrony (defined as correlated fluctuations in the density of separate populations). It is well established that synchrony depends on both dispersal ability and correlated environmental conditions| for example shared climate. However| what is not clear is whether differences in habitat or position within a species' range also mediate synchrony. Since synchronous metapopulations are thought to be more extinction-prone| establishing the drivers of synchrony has clear conservation implications. Using three butterfly species (Maniola jurtina| Pyronia tithonus and Aphantopus hyperantus) we investigated the effects of habitat similarity and range position on population synchrony| after accounting for the effects of distance and climate. Range position was present in all minimum adequate models| though non-significant using Mantel randomization tests in one case. We show that M. jurtina and P. tithonus synchrony is not consistent across species' ranges| with marginal populations showing more synchronous dynamics. Increased climatic constraints on marginal populations| leading to a narrower range of suitable microhabitats may be responsible for this| which is supported by the result that habitat similarity between sites was also positively correlated with population synchrony. As the landscape becomes increasingly homogeneous| overall population synchrony may be expected to rise. We conclude that habitat modification and climate change have the capacity to drive changes in population synchrony that could make species more vulnerable to extinction. 10632,2010,3,3,Synthesis of methanol from oxygen-containing coalbed methane and environmental benefit analysis,Methane (CH(4)) is an acknowledged greenhouse gas (GHG)| and it is playing more and more important role in global warming. So| CH(4) emission must be controlled in order to restrain the greenhouse effect. However| coalbed methane (CBM) emission is an important source of the methane in the atmosphere. Wherefore| it is of significance to study conversion of CBM to methanol for reducing CH(4) emission into the atmosphere. Technologies of syngas production from CBM| including coupling of CBM deoxygenation and CH(4) steam rearming| coupling of CH(4) partial oxidation and CO(2) rearming| and non-catalytic transforming of CBM| are introduced. The method of making methanol with syngas is also described. Moreover| based on the increase trend of atmospheric methane and the destructive effect of CH(4) on environment| the environmental benefit on methanol production with CBM is discussed. At the same time| those problems| which should be adverted in the process of synthesizing methanol with CBM| are emphasized 435,2010,4,4,Systems-level modeling-A new approach for engineering efficient photosynthetic machinery,Photosynthesis produces the basic building block for crop biomass and yields; however| improving photosynthesis has not been effectively used as a breeding goal. More and more evidences suggested that improving photosynthesis can substantially increase crop yields. The complexity of photosynthesis however makes experimentally identifying new ways to engineer higher photosynthesis inherently time-consuming and costly. Combining systems modeling with evolutionary algorithm makes it possible to identify optimal engineering options for future global climate change scenarios and simultaneously consider environmental constraints| such as with constant or even decreasing nitrogen fertilizer application in the field. This method enables in silico examination of a large number of engineering options which natural selection has not explored| for higher photosynthetic energy conversion efficiency. The new approach comes particularly timely for now when our society is facing serious challenges in food security and global climate change. The traditional reductionist's approach will continue generating critical knowledge required to support this systems biology method to engineering higher photosynthesis. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11060,2010,3,4,Taking a life cycle look at crianza wine production in Spain: where are the bottlenecks?,This paper presents the results of the LCA of wine production in the region of La Rioja (Spain). The aim of this study was twofold: to identify the most critical life cycle stages of an aged Spanish wine from the point of view of the associated environmental impacts and to compare its environmental performance with that of other wines and beers for which comparable information could be found in the scientific literature. All the product's life cycle stages were accounted for| namely: grapes cultivation (viticulture)| wine making and bottling| distribution and sales| and disposal of empty bottles. Foreground data were directly obtained from wine producers| farmers| and oenologists; background data were instead sourced from the GaBi professional database. In order to limit the uncertainty and subjectivity of the results| the choice was made to only employ midpoint indicators of environmental impact (global warming potential (GWP)| acidification potential| eutrophication potential| photochemical ozone creation potential)| in addition to gross energy requirement (GER) and water demand (WD). The calculated environmental indicators were allocated to the following co-products on the basis of the associated economic revenues: wine| pomace| lees| and press syrup. The avoided impacts associated to electricity generation were accounted for according to the displaced marginal technology. The GWP of Rioja wine was found to lie between 900 and 1|000 g(CO(2)-eq)/bottle| depending on the assumed distribution scenario. GER is around 8-9 MJ/bottle| and WD is approximately 5 kg/bottle. The most relevant life cycle stages from the point of view of most of the considered impact categories were found to be viticulture (and fertilizer use in particular) and the production of glass for the bottles. Transportation of the wine and final disposal of the empty bottles cumulatively account for a maximum of 30% of the overall impact| depending on the specific indicator and the assumed distribution scenario. The analysis appears to be in good agreement with previous literature studies| the results of which lie within a comparatively narrow range. Within such range| the more upmarket Rioja wine can arguably be seen as providing a greater net benefit to the economy per unit of impact. The present analysis has shed light on which are the two main environmental bottlenecks in the life cycle of industrialized wine| namely viticulture and glass production for bottle manufacture; GWP results are in the same range as those from previous literature studies. New insight is also provided on a possible measure of "economic return on environmental investment." As it stands| the study presented here is arguably among the most complete and transparent analyses in the alcoholic beverage sector. It could be further enhanced at a later stage by also including those secondary sub-processes which were cut off due to lack of available data (including herbicides and pesticides). As for cross-comparability| it would be recommendable for all authors to never omit presenting their results in terms of transparent| disaggregated impact indicators. 11175,2010,3,2,Techno-Economic Analysis of Postcombustion Processes for the Capture of Carbon Dioxide from Power Plant Flue Gas,Capture and sequestration of CO(2) from power plant flue gas have become an important issue in the discussion about global warming. Different concepts of capture are being pursued. The advantages of postcombustion processes| such as processes based on absorption and stripping| is the possibility of retrofitting a state-of-the-art power plant with a capture plant under reasonable effort. Capturing CO(2) by using an absorption/stripping process requires energy in the form of electricity and steam both supplied by the power plant. The capture process thereby reduces the overall efficiency of the power plant by up to 13% pts (percentage points). Apart from the development of new solvents| alternative and novel configurations of the process can lower the energy requirements. Three alternative configurations are economically and technically evaluated and compared to a baseline process represented by a standard absorption/stripping process using monoethanolamine (MEA) as a solvent. Savings in cost of CO(2)-avoided of 2-5% were attained. Regarding the total power required| savings of 4-7% were obtained. The results showed that not the process with the highest energy savings has the lowest cost of CO(2)-avoided| but that the influence of rising in investment costs of more complex configurations cannot be ignored. For a comprehensive analysis of different configurations it is essential to perform both an economic evaluation and a technical study. 11355,2010,3,2,Techno-Economic Potential of Retrofitting Diesel Power Systems with Hybrid Wind-Photovoltaic-Diesel Systems for Off-Grid Electrification of Remote Villages of Saudi Arabia,Recent climatic anomalies such as hot summers| cold winters| hurricanes| and cyclones are all reflections of global warming due to burning of fossil fuels. To combat unprecedented global warming and to mitigate future energy challenges| there is worldwide interest in utilization of renewable sources of energy such as solar-photovoltaic (solar-PV) and wind energy. Other driving forces paving avenue for renewable energy include rapid escalation in oil prices| growing concerns regarding depletion of oil/gas reserves| etc. Retrofitting of diesel systems with hybrid wind-PV-diesel systems is being widely disseminated to reduce diesel fuel consumption and to minimize atmospheric degradation. One of the potential market for deployment of hybrid systems is in remote locations which are driven by diesel generators. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has a number of remote villages scattered all over the Kingdom. The aim of this study is to analyze wind speed and solar radiation data of Rafha| KSA| and to assess the technical and economic potential of hybrid wind-PV-diesel power systems to meet the load requirements of a typical remote village Rawdhat Bin Habbas (RBH) with annual electrical energy demand of 15|943 MWh. Rafha is located near RBH. The monthly average wind speeds range from 2.99 m/s to 4.84 m/s at 10 m height. The monthly average daily global solar radiation ranges from 3.04 to 7.3 kWh/sq.m. The hybrid systems simulated consist of different combinations of 600 kW wind machines| PV panels| supplemented by diesel generators. National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables (HOMER) software has been used to perform the techno-economic study. The simulation results indicate that for a hybrid system comprising of 1.2 MW wind farm capacity (two 600 kW units| 50 m hub-height) and 1.2 MW of PV capacity together with 4.5 MW diesel system (three 1.5 MW units)| the renewable energy fraction with 0% annual capacity shortage is 24% (10% wind + 14% PV). The cost of generating energy (COE) from this hybrid wind-PV-diesel system has been found to be 0.118 $/kWh (oassuming diesel fuel price of 0.1$/lo). The study exhibits that for a given hybrid configuration| the number of operational hours of diesel generators decreases with increase in wind farm and PV capacity. Attention has also been focused on wind/PV penetration| unmet load| excess electricity generation| percentage of fuel savings and reduction in carbon emissions (relative to diesel-only situation) of different hybrid systems| cost breakdown of wind-PV-diesel systems| COE of different hybrid systems| etc. 11422,2010,3,2,Technoeconomic analysis of electricity generation from wind energy in Kutahya| Turkey,Conventional energy usage has various environmental effects that cause global warming. Renewable energy sources are thus more favorable because they have nearly zero emission. Wind energy| among the various renewable sources| finds increasing usage| concurrent with developing technology. In addition| wind is an infinite energy source. In this study| the electricity-generation ability of Kutahya has been investigated. With this aim| wind data| from the measurement station located on Bunelek Hill| Kutahya| have been collected for a period of 36 months (July 2001-June 2004). From the collected data| the electricity generated has been calculated for different types of wind turbines. The calculations have been based on the electricity requirement of the main campus of the Dumlupinar University. Finally| the economic evaluation has been analyzed using life-cycle cost analysis. For the analysis of the economical aspects| the social and CO(2) costs have also been taken into account. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11165,2010,2,4,Temperature and rainfall variation over Dhahran| Saudi Arabia| (1970-2006),The paper presents an analysis of daily mean| maximum and minimum temperature and daily total rainfall records from a meterological data collection station in Dhahran| Saudi Arabia over a period of 37 years spanning from 1970 to 2006. The temperature data analysis indicated a warming trend of the local air and the total annual rainfall values showed almost a constant trend during the reporting period. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meterological Society. 11079,2010,5,4,Temperature beneath continents as a function of continental cover and convective wavelength,Geodynamic modeling studies have demonstrated that mantle global warming can occur in response to continental aggregation| possibly leading to large-scale melting and associated continental breakup. Such feedback calls for a recipe describing how continents help to regulate the thermal evolution of the mantle. Here we use spherical mantle convection models with continents to quantify variations in subcontinental temperature as a function of continent size and distribution and convective wavelength. Through comparison to a simple analytical boundary layer model| we show that larger continents beget warming of the underlying mantle| with heating sometimes compounded by the formation of broader convection cells associated with the biggest continents. Our results hold well for purely internally heated and partially core heated models with Rayleigh numbers of 10(5) to 10(7) containing continents with sizes ranging from that of Antarctica to Pangea. Results from a time-dependent model with three mobile continents of various sizes suggests that the tendency for temperatures to rise with continent size persists on average over timescales of billions of years. 11145,2010,2,3,Temperature responses of photosynthesis and respiration in Populus balsamifera L.: acclimation versus adaptation,To examine the role of acclimation versus adaptation on the temperature responses of CO(2) assimilation| we measured dark respiration (R (n)) and the CO(2) response of net photosynthesis (A) in Populus balsamifera collected from warm and cool habitats and grown at warm and cool temperatures. R (n) and the rate of photosynthetic electron transport (J) are significantly higher in plants grown at 19 versus 27A degrees C; R (n) is not affected by the native thermal habitat. By contrast| both the maximum capacity of rubisco (V (cmax)) and A are relatively insensitive to growth temperature| but both parameters are slightly higher in plants from cool habitats. A is limited by rubisco capacity from 17-37A degrees C regardless of growth temperature| and there is little evidence for an electron-transport limitation. Stomatal conductance (g (s)) is higher in warm-grown plants| but declines with increasing measurement temperature from 17 to 37A degrees C| regardless of growth temperature. The mesophyll conductance (g (m)) is relatively temperature insensitive below 25A degrees C| but g (m) declines at 37A degrees C in cool-grown plants. Plants acclimated to cool temperatures have increased R (n)/A| but this response does not differ between warm- and cool-adapted populations. Primary carbon metabolism clearly acclimates to growth temperature in P. balsamifera| but the ecotypic differences in A suggest that global warming scenarios might affect populations at the northern and southern edges of the boreal forest in different ways. 405,2010,2,3,Temperature sensitivity increases with soil organic carbon recalcitrance along an elevational gradient in the Wuyi Mountains| China,No consensus exists regarding soil organic carbon (SOC) lability and the temperature sensitivity of its decomposition. This lack of clear understanding limits the accuracy in predicting the long-term impacts of climate change on soil carbon (C) storage. In this study| we determined the temperature responses of labile and recalcitrant organic carbon (LOC vs. ROC) by comparing the time required to decompose a given amount of C at different incubation temperatures along an elevational gradient in the Wuyi Mountains in southeastern China. Results showed that the temperature sensitivity increased with increasing SOC recalcitrance (Q(10-labile) = 1.39 +/- 0.04 vs. Q(10-recalcitrant) = 3.94 +/- 0.30). Q(10-labile) and Q(10-recalcitrant) values significantly increased with increasing soil depth. The effect of elevational vegetation change was significant for Q(10-recalcitrant) but not for Q(10-labile)| though they increased along the elevational gradient. The response of ROC pools to changes in temperature would accelerate the soil-stored C losses in the Wuyi Mountains. Kinetic theory suggested that SOC decomposition was both temperature- and quality-dependent due to an increased temperature. This would promote more CO(2) release from recalcitrant soil organic matter (SOM) in cold regions| resulting in a greater positive feedback to global climate change than previously expected. Moreover| the response of ROC to changes in temperature will determine the magnitude of the positive feedback due to its large storage in soils. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 11027,2010,2,4,Temperature Sensitivity of Black Carbon Decomposition and Oxidation,Global warming accelerates decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools with varying rates and temperature sensitivities. Black carbon (BC) materials are among the slowest decomposing components of the SOC pool. Although BC is a large component of SOC in many systems| the influence of temperature on decomposition of BC bearing different chemical and physical structures remains poorly understood. Four BC materials| produced by carbonizing corn residue and oak wood at 350 and 600 degrees C (corn-350-BC| corn-600-BC| oak-350-BC| and oak-600-BC)| were mixed with pure sand and incubated at 4| 10| 20| 30| 45| and 60 C for 1 year. Corn-BC was more porous than oak-BC as determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Increasing the charring temperature from 350 to 600 C led to greater aromaticity with 5-15% more C in aromatic rings and a 39-57% increase in both nonprotonated aromatic C and aromatic bridgehead C quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and a greater degree of order and development of C layers as observed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). With a temperature increase from 4 to 60 degrees C| C loss of corn-350-BC increased from 10 to 20%| corn-600-BC| from 4 to 20%| oak-350-BC| from 2.3 to 15%| and oak-600-BC from 1.5 to 14% of initial C content| respectively. Temperature sensitivity (Q(10)) decreased with increasing incubation temperature and was highest in oak-600-BC| followed by oak-350-BC| corn-600-BC| and corn-350-BC| indicating that decomposition of more stable BC was more sensitive to increased temperature than less stable materials. Carbon loss and potential cation exchange capacity (CECp) significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with O/C ratios and change in O/C ratios| suggesting that oxidative processes were the most important mechanism controlling BC decomposition in this study. 10742,2010,4,4,Temperature sensitivity of forest soil organic matter decomposition along two elevation gradients,The temperature sensitivity of the soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition along the slopes of mountain forests in Austria and Spain was analyzed. High-altitude forest soils store large quantities of organic carbon (C) and are particularly vulnerable to global warming if the decomposition of the SOM is more temperature sensitive than at lower altitude. Mineral soil and O-layer material was incubated in the laboratory at temperatures increasing from 5 degrees C to (20 degrees C) 25 degrees C. The temperature sensitivity (Q(10)) was determined by fitting different temperature response functions to the measured CO(2) efflux. Bulk soil and density fractions were analyzed for organic C and nitrogen (N) contents. C and N stocks along the elevation gradients were estimated. Q(10) over the whole incubation temperature range varied between 1.5 and 2.5 but did not show any altitudinal trends for O-layer material and mineral soils along both gradients. Besides that| Q(10) generally increased with decreasing soil temperatures. SOM decomposition at higher elevation forests will be more responsive to global warming because it will be affected in a more sensitive (cooler) temperature range compared to lower elevation sites. This effect was modeled by the Lloyd and Taylor function and Gaussian but not by the frequently used exponential temperature function. Both soil C and N contents increased with increasing altitude. Density fractionation showed deviating altitudinal C and N patterns of labile and recalcitrant SOM pools along the Spanish gradient. Soil C stocks along both gradients did not resemble the trend in C contents and were determined by other site-specific factors. This| and significantly low C and N contents and stocks of a site that was used as a forest pasture| indicates that both forest management and land use can play equally important roles in the development of soil C as climatic factors. 11011,2010,2,4,Temperature sensitivity of nutrient release from dung along elevation gradient on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau,The temperature sensitivity of nutrient release from dung decomposition will influence ecosystem nutrient recycling in the future global warming. However| the relationship between temperature and nutrient release is not well understood. We conducted a 2-year-long study to understand the yak dung decomposition and its potential response to climate change along an elevation gradient from 3|200 to 4|200 m above sea level on an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. Mass loss of different chemical components of dung [organic carbon (C)| cellulose| hemicellulose| lignin| N| P| potassium (K)| calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg)] significantly decreased with elevation. The ratios of C:N and N:P in the remaining dung increased significantly with decrease in elevation. The average temperature sensitivities (% A degrees C(-1)) (i.e.| increase of the mass loss (%) per 1A degrees C temperature increase among elevations) were approximately 37| 75| 168| 41| 29| 37| 29| 34| and 31% per 1A degrees C warming within a 273-day decomposition period| which decreased with decomposition time| for organic C| cellulose| hemicellulose| lignin| N| P| K| Ca| and Mg| respectively. The temperature sensitivity of organic C mass loss is positively correlated to the C:N ratios in dung. The average temperature sensitivity of phosphorus mass loss was higher than that of nitrogen mass loss for the first 273 days and thereafter this situation was reversed. 679,2010,2,4,Temperature sensitivity of organic matter decomposition in two boreal forest soil profiles,Controversial conclusions from different studies suggest that the decomposition of old soil organic matter (SOM) is either more| less| or equally temperature sensitive compared to the younger SOM. Based on chemical kinetic theory| the decomposition of more recalcitrant materials should be more temperature sensitive| unless environmental factors limit decomposition. Here| we show results for boreal upland forest soils supporting this hypothesis. We detected differences in the temperature sensitivity I between soil layers varying in their decomposition stage and SOM quality| and 2) inside the layers during a 495 day laboratory incubation. Temperature sensitivity increased with increasing soil depth and decreasing SOM quality. In the organic layers| temperature sensitivity of decomposition increased during the early part of a 495 day laboratory incubation| after respiration rate and SOM quality had notably This indicates that decomposition of recalcitrant compounds was more temperature sensitive decreased. than that of the labile ones. Our results imply that Q(10) values for total heterotrophic soil respiration determined from short-term laboratory incubations can either underestimate or overestimate the temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition| depending on soil layer| initial labile carbon content and temperature range used for the measurements. Using Q(10) values that ignore these factors in global climate models provides erroneous estimates on the effects of climate change on soil carbon storage. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10797,2010,2,4,Temperature| predator-prey interaction strength and population stability,Warming could strongly stabilize or destabilize populations and food webs by changing the interaction strengths between predators and their prey. Predicting the consequences of warming requires understanding how temperature affects ingestion (energy gain) and metabolism (energy loss). Here| we studied the temperature dependence of metabolism and ingestion in laboratory experiments with terrestrial arthropods (beetles and spiders). From this data| we calculated ingestion efficiencies (ingestion/metabolism) and per capita interaction strengths in the short and long term. Additionally| we investigated if and how body mass changes these temperature dependencies. For both predator groups| warming increased metabolic rates substantially| whereas temperature effects on ingestion rates were weak. Accordingly| the ingestion efficiency (the ratio of ingestion to metabolism) decreased in all treatments. This result has two possible consequences: on the one hand| it suggests that warming of natural ecosystems could increase intrinsic population stability| meaning less fluctuations in population density; on the other hand| decreasing ingestion efficiencies may also lead to higher extinction risks because of starvation. Additionally| predicted long-term per capita interaction strengths decreased with warming| which suggests an increase in perturbation stability of populations| i.e.| a higher probability of returning to the same equilibrium density after a small perturbation. Together| these results suggest that warming has complex and potentially profound effects on predator-prey interactions and food-web stability. 595,2010,2,4,Temperature-associated increases in the global soil respiration record,Soil respiration| R(S)| the flux of microbially and plant-respired carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from the soil surface to the atmosphere| is the second-largest terrestrial carbon flux(1-3). However| the dynamics of R(S) are not well understood and the global flux remains poorly constrained(4|5). Ecosystem warming experiments(6|7)| modelling analyses(8|9) and fundamental biokinetics(10) all suggest that R(S) should change with climate. This has been difficult to confirm observationally because of the high spatial variability of R(S)| inaccessibility of the soil medium and the inability of remote-sensing instruments to measure R(S) on large scales. Despite these constraints| it may be possible to discern climate-driven changes in regional or global R(S) values in the extant four-decade record of R(S) chamber measurements. Here we construct a database of worldwide R(S) observations matched with high-resolution historical climate data and find a previously unknown temporal trend in the R(S) record after accounting for mean annual climate| leaf area| nitrogen deposition and changes in CO(2) measurement technique. We find that the air temperature anomaly (the deviation from the 1961-1990 mean) is significantly and positively correlated with changes in R(S). We estimate that the global R(S) in 2008 (that is| the flux integrated over the Earth's land surface over 2008) was 98 +/- 12 Pg C and that it increased by 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) between 1989 and 2008| implying a global R(S) response to air temperature (Q(10)) of 1.5. An increasing global R(S) value does not necessarily constitute a positive feedback to the atmosphere| as it could be driven by higher carbon inputs to soil rather than by mobilization of stored older carbon. The available data are| however| consistent with an acceleration of the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to global climate change. 11203,2010,2,4,Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination and Contemporary Climate Change,Whether species that have persisted throughout historic climatic upheavals will survive contemporary climate change will depend on their ecological and physiological traits| their evolutionary potential| and potentially upon the resources that humans commit to prevent their extinction. For those species where temperatures influence sex determination| rapid global warming poses a unique risk of skewed sex ratios and demographic collapse. Here we review the specific mechanisms by which reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) may be imperilled at current rates of warming| and discuss the evidence for and against adaptation via behavioural or physiological means. We propose a scheme for ranking reptiles with TSD according to their vulnerability to rapid global warming| but note that critical data on the lability of the sex determining mechanism and on the heritability of behavioural and threshold traits are unavailable for most species. Nevertheless| we recommend a precautionary approach to management of reptiles identified as being at relatively high risk. In such cases| management should aim to neutralise directional sex ratio biases (e.g. by manipulating incubation temperatures or assisted migration) and promote adaptive processes| possibly by genetic supplementation of populations. These practices should aid species' persistence and buy time for research directed at more accurate prediction of species' vulnerability. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG| Basel 10532,2010,2,3,Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany,Climate change is expected to manifest in the shift of organisms to regions where they were not present in the past| potentially entailing previously unseen biological risks. However| studies evaluating these future trends are scarce. Here| an important group of vectors (sandflies) and the pathogen transmitted (Leishmania infantum complex) causing the infectious disease visceral leishmaniasis is investigated| focussing on potential establishment in Germany during the 21(st) century. As the most important habitat factor| temperature requirements of pathogen and vector were derived from the literature and compared with recent climate records - provided by worldclim - and climate change scenarios. Climate data from the Regional Climate Model REMO were obtained and averaged over the time periods 20112040| 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. Projected temperature changes (based on the A1B and A2 scenarios) were correlated with the constraints of vector and pathogen. Simulated potentially suitable habitat areas for vector and pathogen were merged to generate a temperature-derived risk map of visceral leishmaniasis. Temperature conditions seem to become suitable for the vector across large swaths of Germany. Nevertheless| temperature constraints for the pathogen may defer the establishment of the parasitic disease| particularly during the first half of the 21st century. Long-lasting epidemics of visceral leishmaniasis are therefore not expected in Germany during the next few decades| although during extremely warm years an increase in autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis may occur. The southwest (Upper Rhine Valley) and west (Cologne Bight) of Germany are identified as risk areas. The time of potential establishment and corresponding rise in biological risk varies between scenarios| due to differences in the predicted rate of temperature increase. 10576,2010,5,3,Tempo and scale of late Paleocene and early Eocene carbon isotope cycles: Implications for the origin of hyperthermals,The upper Paleocene and lower Eocene are marked by several prominent (>1%.) carbon isotope (delta(13)C) excursions (CIE) that coincide with transient global warmings| or thermal maxima| including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). The CIE| which are recorded mainly in marine sedimentary sequences| have also been identified in continental sequences| occurred episodically| and yet appear to be paced or triggered by orbital forcing. To constrain the timing and scale of the CIE relative to long-term baseline variability| we have constructed a 4.52 million year (myr) long| high-resolution (similar to 3 kyr) bulk sediment carbon isotope record spanning the lower Eocene to upper Paleocene (C25r-C24n) from a pelagic sediment section recovered at ODP Site 1262 in the southeast Atlantic. This section| which was orbitally-tuned utilizing high-resolution core log physical property and geochemical records| is the most stratigraphically complete upper Paleocene to lower Eocene sequence recovered to date. Time-series analysis of the carbon isotope record along with a high-resolution Fe intensity record obtained by XRF core scanner reveal cyclicity with variance concentrated primarily in the precession (21 kyr) and eccentricity bands (100 and 400-kyr) throughout the upper Paleocene-lower Eocene. In general| minima in delta(13)C correspond with peaks in Fe (i.e.| carbonate dissolution)| both of which appear to be in phase with maxima in eccentricity. This covariance is consistent with excess oceanic uptake of isotopically depleted carbon resulting in lower carbonate saturation during periods of high eccentricity. This relationship includes all late Paleocene and early Eocene CIE confirming pacing by orbital forcing. The lone exception is the PETM| which appears to be out of phase with the 400-kyr cycle| though possibly in phase with the 100-kyr cycle| reinforcing the notion that a mechanism other than orbital forcing and/or an additional source of carbon is required to account for the occurrence and unusual scale of this event. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11514,2010,2,4,Temporal and spatial patterns in the diet of northern fulmars Fulmarus glacialis in the Canadian High Arctic,The northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis is a medium-sized seabird with a broad| circum-polar range in the northern hemisphere| and is the only petrel that inhabits the High Arctic. We used stomach analysis and stable isotopes (delta(15)N| delta(13)C) of muscles to examine the diet of 179 fulmars during the breeding season at 4 locations in Arctic Canada| to compare diet to those from studies conducted in these regions >2 decades earlier. Across sampling locations| cephalopods| polychaetes and crustaceans dominated dietary remains in fulmars| although there was some regional variation. Both stable isotopes and stomach dissections showed that a seasonal shift in diet occurred in May| after which fulmars fed at a higher trophic level| suggesting a difference in winter/migration diet and breeding season diet. After migration| fulmar digestive organs decreased markedly in size| and by the time chicks were hatching| these organs were still 17 to 39% smaller than their size when birds arrived at the colony. Despite ongoing changes in the marine environment in much of the Arctic due to global warming| recent fulmar diet samples were similar to samples collected in the 1970s and 1980s| except that a higher proportion of recent collections contained fish. 10971,2010,2,4,Temporal and spatial variation of annual mean air temperature in arid and semiarid region in northwest China over a recent 46 year period,We analyzed the 1961-2006 mean surface air temperature data of 138 stations in China's northwest arid and semi-arid areas (CNASA)| to measure climate change in terms of annual mean air temperature changes. We used methods of linear regression analysis| multinomial fitting| Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF)| Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF)| Mann-Kendall| Glide T-examination| wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis. The results show that (1) the warming rate of the annual mean air temperature in CNASA was 0.35 degrees C/10a during the 1961-2006 study period. Some places in the west part of Xinjiang and east part of the Qinghai plateau| which is impacted by the terrain of leeward slope| exhibit smaller increasing trends. However| the majority of region has shown distinct warming in line with general global warming; (2) The standard deviation of the annual mean temperature distribution is non-uniform. The south Xinjiang and east Qinghai-south Gansu areas show relatively small standard deviations| but the inter-annual variation in annual mean air temperature in the greater part of the region is high; (3) Inner Mongolia| Shaanxi| Gansu| Ningxia and Tarim Basin are the areas where the temperature changes are most sensitive to the environment. The degree of uniformity in annual mean air temperature increase is higher in the arid and semi-arid area. From the early 1970s| the trend in temperature changed from a decrease to an increase| and there was a marked increase in mean temperature in 1986. After that mean temperature went through a period of rapid increase. The entire area's 10 hottest years all occurred in or since the 1990s| and 90% of various sub-districts' hottest years also occurred after 1990. The process of temperature change appears to have a roughly 5-year and a 10-year cycle; (4) Annual mean air temperature variation has regional differences. In Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang and Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai areas| the temperature variation in their northern areas was very different from that in their southern areas; (5) Using the REOF method we divided the region into 4 sub-regions: the Northern region| the Plateau region| the Southern Xinjiang region and the Eastern region. The region's annual mean air temperature transition has regional differences. The Plateau and Southern Xinjiang regions got warmer steadily without any obvious acceleration in the rate of warming. The Northern region's warming started about 5-years earlier than that of the low latitude Eastern region. The 'Startup region' of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau| appears to undergo temperature changes 3 to 10 years earlier than the other regions| and exhibits inter-decadal variations 1 to 2 years ahead of the other regions. 586,2010,2,4,Temporal Variation of Trypanosoma cruzi Infection in Native Mammals in Chile,In the present study| we compared Trypanosoma cruzi infection in four native mammals from a hyperendemic area of Chagas disease in Chile for two different periods to assess the occurrence of interannual variation (1999-2000 vs. 2005-2006). Parasite detection in mammals is performed by polymerase chain reaction assays and confirmed by Southern blot analysis and hybridization test with a universal probe. Results showed significant differences in the levels of T. cruzi infection between the compared periods. We suggest that the major El Nino event occurred in 1997-1998| a large-scale global climatic fluctuation| could be indirectly explaining the extremely high T. cruzi infection in 1999-2000 by means of a time-lag response of the wild transmission cycle of Chagas disease in semiarid Chile after the irruption of small rodent populations. 10907,2010,2,3,Temporary acceleration of the hydrological cycle in response to a CO(2) rampdown,Current studies of the impact of climate change mitigation options tend to scale patterns of precipitation change linearly with surface temperature. Using climate model simulations| we show a nonlinear hydrological response to transient global warming and a substantial side effect of climate mitigation. In an idealised representation of mitigation action| where we reverse the trend of global warming| the precipitation response shows significant hysteresis behaviour due to heat previously accumulated in the ocean. Stabilising or reducing CO(2) concentrations in the atmosphere is found temporarily to strengthen the global hydrological cycle| while reducing rainfall over some tropical and subtropical regions. The drying trend under global warming over The Amazon| Australia and western Africa may intensify for decades after CO(2) reductions. The inertia due to accumulated heat in the ocean implies a commitment to hydrological cycle changes long after stabilisation or reduction of atmospheric CO(2) concentration. Citation: Wu| P.| R. Wood| J. Ridley| and J. Lowe ( 2010)| Temporary acceleration of the hydrological cycle in response to a CO(2) rampdown| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L12705| doi: 10.1029/2010GL043730. 11428,2010,2,4,Ten years after: krill as indicator of changes in the macro-zooplankton communities of two Arctic fjords,A macro-zooplankton study from 1996 was repeated in 2006 and focused on euphausiid species as indicators of advection and warming effects in Kongsfjorden| West Spitsbergen| Svalbard. The influence of warmer Atlantic water in Kongsfjorden was indicated by the findings of three additional euphausiid species of typically Atlantic origin| relative to the previous study 10 years ago. The predominant presence of Thysanoessa inermis in Hornsund suggested persisting cold conditions in this more southerly| but more Arctic influenced fjord. In this species| moult stage analysis showed that trophic effects can override temperature forcing. Histology and lipid analysis suggest that reproductive activity should be monitored as an indication of warming and possibly a shift in food web composition. 10755,2010,2,3,Testing a theory for the effect of latitude on the persistence of eddy-driven jets using CMIP3 simulations,The effect of latitude on the persistence of north-south shifts in the position of the jet is investigated in 37 CMIP3 integrations over four forcing scenarios. The persistence of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) decreases when the mean jet is located closer to the pole. An asymmetry is shown whereby the equatorward-shifted jet is more persistent than the poleward-shifted jet. The sphericity of the earth inhibits wave breaking on the poleward flank of the jet which decreases the feedback between the eddies and the mean-flow and yields a wider| less self-sustaining jet. The results suggest a decrease in e-folding time of the SAM of 3 days per degree of poleward shift of the jet. The mechanism described explains why models with jets too far equatorward relative to observations over-predict the timescale of the SAM and suggests that these models will also exaggerate poleward shifts of jets associated with global warming. Citation: Barnes| E. A.| and D. L. Hartmann (2010)| Testing a theory for the effect of latitude on the persistence of eddy-driven jets using CMIP3 simulations| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L15801| doi: 10.1029/2010GL044144. 10771,2010,2,4,Testing DayCent and DNDC model simulations of N(2)O fluxes and assessing the impacts of climate change on the gas flux and biomass production from a humid pasture,Simulation models are one of the approaches used to investigate greenhouse gas emissions and potential effects of global warming on terrestrial ecosystems. DayCent which is the daily time-step version of the CENTURY biogeochemical model| and DNDC (the DeNitrification-DeComposition model) were tested against observed nitrous oxide flux data from a field experiment on cut and extensively grazed pasture located at the Teagasc Oak Park Research Centre| Co. Carlow| Ireland. The soil was classified as a free draining sandy clay loam soil with a pH of 7.3 and a mean organic carbon and nitrogen content at 0-20 cm of 38 and 4.4 g kg(-1) dry soil| respectively. The aims of this study were to validate DayCent and DNDC models for estimating N(2)O emissions from fertilized humid pasture| and to investigate the impacts of future climate change on N(2)O fluxes and biomass production. Measurements of N(2)O flux were carried out from November 2003 to November 2004 using static chambers. Three climate scenarios| a baseline of measured climatic data from the weather station at Carlow| and high and low temperature sensitivity scenarios predicted by the Community Climate Change Consortium For Ireland (C4I) based on the Hadley Centre Global Climate Model (HadCM(3)) and the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario were investigated. DayCent predicted cumulative N(2)O flux and biomass production under fertilized grass with relative deviations of +38% and (-23%) from the measured| respectively. However| DayCent performs poorly under the control plots| with flux relative deviation of (-57%) from the measured. Comparison between simulated and measured flux suggests that both DayCent model's response to N fertilizer and simulated background flux need to be adjusted. DNDC overestimated the measured flux with relative deviations of +132 and +258% due to overestimation of the effects of SOC. DayCent| though requiring some calibration for Irish conditions| simulated N(2)O fluxes more consistently than did DNDC. We used DayCent to estimate future fluxes of N(2)O from this field. No significant differences were found between cumulative N(2)O flux under climate change and baseline conditions. However| above-ground grass biomass was significantly increased from the baseline of 33 t ha(-1) to 45 (+34%) and 50 (+48%) t dry matter ha(-1) for the low and high temperature sensitivity scenario respectively. The increase in above-ground grass biomass was mainly due to the overall effects of high precipitation| temperature and CO(2) concentration. Our results indicate that because of high N demand by the vigorously growing grass| cumulative N(2)O flux is not projected to increase significantly under climate change| unless more N is applied. This was observed for both the high and low temperature sensitivity scenarios. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10893,2010,2,4,Testing for criticality in ecosystem dynamics: the case of Amazonian rainforest and savanna fire,P>We test for two critical phenomena in Amazonian ecosystems: self-organized criticality (SOC) and critical transitions. SOC is often presented in the complex systems literature as a general explanation for scale invariance in nature. In particular| this mechanism is claimed to underlie the macroscopic structure and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. These would be inextricably linked to the action of fire| which is conceived as an endogenous ecological process. We show that Amazonian savanna fires display the scale-invariant features characteristic of SOC but do not display SOC. The same is true in Amazonian rainforests subject to moderate drought. These findings prove that there are other causes of scale invariance in ecosystems. In contrast| we do find evidence of a critical transition to a megafire regime under extreme drought in rainforests; this phenomenon is likely to determine the time scale of a possible loss of Amazonian rainforest caused by climate change. 10987,2010,4,3,The 2007 dry spell in Luzon (Philippines): its cause| impact and corresponding response measures,Climate change| involving both human-induced global warming and natural climate variability| has been called upon to explain the occurrences of weather extremes with their associated natural hazards. The Philippines experienced a dry spell in 2007 specifically in parts of Luzon which occurred during the rainy season. On the other hand| areas in Mindanao| southern Philippines which were supposed to be dry| were wet due to the non-migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone northward. The 2007 dry spell in Luzon| northern Philippines affected the agricultural| power| water and health sectors. The local effects of this weather extreme have to be documented and studied to ensure that the appropriate response measures are adopted should there be a recurrence. The building up of the database on this weather extreme and related natural hazards will definitely help the country cope with future similar events. 373,2010,3,4,The aesthetics of water and land: a promising concept for managing scarce water resources under climate change,The eastern Mediterranean faces a severe water crisis: water supply decreases due to climate change| while demand increases due to rapid population growth. The GLOWA Jordan River project generates science-based management strategies for maximizing water productivity under global climate change. We use a novel definition of water productivity as the full range of services provided by landscapes per unit blue (surface) and green (in plants and soil) water. Our combined results from climatological| ecological| economic and hydrological studies suggest that| in Israel| certain landscapes provide high returns as ecosystem services for little input of additional blue water. Specifically| cultural services such as recreation may by far exceed that of food production. Interestingly| some highly valued landscapes (e. g. rangeland) appear resistant to climate change| making them an ideal candidate for adaptive land management. Vice versa| expanding irrigated agriculture is unlikely to be sustainable under global climate change. We advocate the inclusion of a large range of ecosystem services into integrated land and water resources management. The focus on cultural services and integration of irrigation demand will lead to entirely different but productive water and land allocation schemes that may be suitable for withstanding the problems caused by climate change. 10707,2010,2,4,The Biological Flora of Coastal Dunes and Wetlands: Spartina patens (W. Aiton) GH Muhlenberg,Spartina patens (W. Aiton) G.H. Muhlenberg is a New World tropical-| subtropical-| and temperate-zone rhizomatous grass that often is a dominant species in coastal environments. It occurs in habitats ranging from foredunes to saturated soil conditions in high marshes and swabs. Herein| we present a review of the extensive literature of this important species. Spartina patens occurs where salinity ranges from 1 to 27 ppt| but it will tolerate salinities up to 40 ppt for brief periods. It tolerates moderate tidal inundation| low nutrient levels| and low to moderate sand coverage. Also known as marshhay cordgrass| it may account for almost all net productivity in high marshes on the Gulf of Mexico coast of Louisiana. High marshes dominated by S. patens are affected by flooding depths associated with global warming and rising sea levels. It is a valuable species for coastal restoration projects for it quickly invades dredged material and storm washover sites. Spartina patens provides cover for wildlife and forage for livestock. 10747,2010,5,4,The bryozoan dispersion into the Mediterranean margin of Gondwana during the pre-glacial Late Ordovician,A quantitative palaeobiogeographical study of the late Katian bryozoans provides new insights into the debate on climatic changes immediately prior to the Hirnantian glaciation. It focuses primarily on the Mediterranean bryozoans| for which new data are now available| and compares their distribution with those from other Gondwanan terranes and the rest of the Late Ordovician palaeocontinents. The analysis shows that the bryozoans that invaded the Mediterranean margin of Gondwana| during the late Katian global transgression| were not a simple expansion of the range of those inhabiting the palaeocontinent of Baltica. The immigrant associations| although preserving Baltic affinities| developed an independent faunal signal| denoting clear environmental differences from those in the tropical palaeocontinents from which they came. The largest bryozoan biogeographical units underwent reorganization during the late Katian. They intermixed at low latitudes| making it impossible to distinguish between the former Siberian and North-American provinces| and a new independent Mediterranean Province emerged at mid latitudes. The late Katian loss of endemism amongst the bryozoans at tropical latitudes is counter to the increasing endemism reported for other tropical faunas in support of the hypothesis of a global warming event However| the extinction of several bryozoan genera in tropical palaeocontinents| simultaneously with their immigration into the Mediterranean cool waters| is consistent with the hypothesis of a late Katian global warming: the Boda event The Mediterranean Province bordered the southern half of Gondwana and could have extended from what is now Himalayan India to the Precordilleran terrane of Argentina. A palaeolatitude between 40 and 55 degrees south is suggested for the province. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11052,2010,3,2,The budget approach: A framework for a global transformation toward a low-carbon economy,Latest research shows that there is only a realistic chance of restricting global warming to 2 degrees C if a limit is set to the total amount of CO(2) emitted globally between now and 2050 (global carbon dioxide budget). We move this global budget to the forefront of our considerations regarding a new global climate treaty in the post-Copenhagen process. [The authors are members of the "German Advisory Council on Global Change" (WBGU). The WBGU recently published a study on "Solving the climate dilemma: The budget approach." This paper builds on the fundamental ideas and findings of the WBGU study and demonstrates that the budget approach could serve as a cornerstone for an institutional design for a global low-carbon economy.] Combining findings from climate science and economics with fundamental concepts of equity| the "budget approach" provides concrete figures for the emission allowances that are still available to countries| assuming they want to prevent the destabilization of the planet's climate system. Our calculations demonstrate that the time pressure for acting is almost overwhelming-in industrialized countries and also in emerging economies and many developing nations. We suggest several institutional innovations and rules to manage the global and the national CO(2) budgets in a transparent| fair| and flexible way. A sober analysis of the state of the art of climate change science and of the state of multilateral attempts to create an effective climate protection accord so far reveals that the budget approach can provide crucial orientation for the negotiations toward a comprehensive post-Copenhagen climate regime. The approach facilitates at the same time an institutional design for a low-carbon global economy| setting the necessary incentives for decoupling economic growth from the burning of fossil fuels. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3318695] 11276,2010,2,3,The change in the East Asian summer monsoon simulated by the MIROC3.2 high-resolution coupled model under global warming scenarios,In order to investigate changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) under the global warming| the MIROC3.2 (hires) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) developed by the Center for Climate System Research is utilized. The outputs of MIROC3.2 (hires) model have been analyzed using two scenarios; the 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) scenario and the Special Reports for Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B). Eight Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models are also analyzed to compare model performances. It is shown that the simulation skill of MIROC3.2 (hires) for the EASM is relatively superior to these IPCC CGCMs. It has been found that the intensified rain band and the extended duration of the EASM are anticipated with MIROC3.2 (hires) under the global warming in well accordance with previous studies. Especially| the precipitation due to the cumulus convection is predicted to increase more significantly than the precipitation by the large-scale condensation. Due to the increased land-sea thermal contrast in summer under the global warming| water vapor fluxes in the lower troposphere are enhanced. Consequently| the convective instability may be strengthened and thus it leads to the increase of precipitation by cumulus convection. Moreover| the upper tropospheric circulations associated with the EU pattern would lead to the larger interannual variability of precipitation over the EASM region in the future warm climate. In addition| it is found that the relationship between the sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the wintertime and the summer rainfall over the East Asia may be weakened| suggesting that the predictability of the EASM might become more difficult under the global warming. 11475,2010,2,3,The climatic sensitivity of the forest| savanna and forest-savanna transition in tropical South America,P>We used a climate-vegetation-natural fire (CVNF) conceptual model to evaluate the sensitivity and vulnerability of forest| savanna| and the forest-savanna transition to environmental changes in tropical South America. Initially| under current environmental conditions| CVNF model results suggested that| in the absence of fires| tropical forests would extend c. 200 km into the presently observed savanna domain. Environmental changes were then imposed upon the model in temperature| precipitation and lightning strikes. These changes ranged from 2 to 6 degrees C warming| +10 to -20% precipitation change and 0 to 15% increase in lightning frequency| which| in aggregate form| represent expected future climatic changes in response to global warming and deforestation. The most critical vegetation changes are projected to take place over the easternmost portions of the basin| with a widening of the forest-savanna transition. The transition width would increase from 150 to c. 300 km| with tree cover losses ranging from 20 to 85%. This means that c. 6% of the areas currently covered by forests could potentially turn into grass-dominated savanna landscapes. The mechanism driving tree cover reduction consists of the combination of less favorable climate conditions for trees and more fire activity. In addition| this sensitivity analysis predicts that the current dry shrubland vegetation of northeast Brazil could potentially turn into a bare soil landscape. 10644,2010,2,4,The conservation genetics of Ash Meadows pupfish populations. I. The Warm Springs pupfish Cyprinodon nevadensis pectoralis,The Warm Springs pupfish (Cyprinodon nevadensis pectoralis) inhabits several low flow (<0.15 cfs) springs in an otherwise dry Mojave Desert landscape. Increasing demands on groundwater coupled with predictions of decreased precipitation from global warming make this species a sentinel for biodiversity dependent on springs. Here we examine mitochondrial DNA haplotypes and nuclear microsatellite genotypes for individuals sampled in 1998 and 2007 as a means of inferring the historical demography of the subspecies. Estimates of genetic effective population size from comparison of allele frequencies over time underscores that all spring populations support small populations| typically <100 individuals. Such small population sizes suggest spring populations may have heightened probabilities of extirpation. Despite small population sizes| all springs harbor relatively high levels of genetic variation for both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA. Unexpectedly high levels of variation may be explained by recent declines in population size coupled with rare episodes of gene flow between springs suspected of occurring during flooding events. The inferences gained from the genetic data provide the basis for evaluating current and future restoration plans. The genetic data suggest there is a need to balance the predicted positive effects of restoring hydrological connectivity with the potential negative impacts of providing avenues for the spread of exotic species detrimental to pupfish populations. 11008,2010,3,1,The Copenhagen Accord for limiting global warming: Criteria| constraints| and available avenues,At last| all the major emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have agreed under the Copenhagen Accord that global average temperature increase should be kept below 2 degrees C. This study develops the criteria for limiting the warming below 2 degrees C| identifies the constraints imposed on policy makers| and explores available mitigation avenues. One important criterion is that the radiant energy added by human activities should not exceed 2.5 (range: 1.7-4) watts per square meter (Wm(-2)) of the Earth's surface. The blanket of man-made GHGs has already added 3 (range: 2.6-3.5) Wm(-2). Even if GHG emissions peak in 2015| the radiant energy barrier will be exceeded by 100%| requiring simultaneous pursuit of three avenues: (i) reduce the rate of thickening of the blanket by stabilizing CO(2) concentration below 441 ppm during this century (a massive decarbonization of the energy sector is necessary to accomplish this Herculean task)| (ii) ensure that air pollution laws that reduce the masking effect of cooling aerosols be made radiant energy-neutral by reductions in black carbon and ozone| and (iii) thin the blanket by reducing emissions of short-lived GHGs. Methane and hydrofluorocarbons emerge as the prime targets. These actions| even if we are restricted to available technologies for avenues ii and iii| can reduce the probability of exceeding the 2 degrees C barrier before 2050 to less than 10%| and before 2100 to less than 50%. With such actions| the four decades we have until 2050 should be exploited to develop and scale-up revolutionary technologies to restrict the warming to less than 1.5 degrees C. 10782,2010,3,2,THE COPENHAGEN ACCORD: A CATASTROFIC WARM FUTURE. DO WE NEED A PLAN B?,The Copenhagen Accord (December 2009) underlines that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time and emphasizes the political will to urgently combat it| in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Also| it recognizes that deep cuts in global emissions of greenhouse gases are required to maintain the temperature increase below 2 degrees C; the limit to prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Unfortunately| the proposed emission reduction commitments (mitigation) submitted to the Accord fall short of required levels. From the analysis of the present situation| a significant global warming during the current century appears to be inevitable| with likely catastrophic increases of temperature (4 degrees C by 2100). Urgently| all countries should establish comprehensive adaptation programs. Furthermore| in order to alleviate the situation| it will be necessary to appeal to all the available mitigation options| including short lived compounds and atmospheric CO(2) sequestration techniques. The participation of developing countries is crucial| as they currently contribute with similar to 58% of global emissions| which are growing substantially. On the other hand| to confront an eventual climatic crisis| it may be a good idea to develop a plan B. At present| several geoengineering proposals which could counteract warming in a relatively short time after implementation| such as injection of sulfur compounds in the stratosphere| are being discussed. This would give some extra time for mitigation options| the real solution. Obviously| the intentional alteration of the climate system could have negative environmental consequences| which should be fully investigated before proceeding. 11112,2010,2,4,The current and future potential geographical distribution of Hyparrhenia hirta,P>Hyparrhenia hirta is a pasture grass that has become highly invasive in several parts of the world| including Australia where it has become a serious environmental weed in recent decades. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution and relative abundance of this invasive species| under current and future climate scenarios| will help biosecurity and weed control authorities to plan better strategies to manage the invasion. The CLIMEX modelling package was used to investigate the impacts of climate change on the potential global distribution of H. hirta| based on eco-physiological data. The worldwide potential distribution of H. hirta under current climatic conditions is vast and far greater than the current distribution| with suitable climate conditions extending over much of the tropics and subtropics. Under future climate scenarios| the range of H. hirta is likely to expand into areas currently too cold for its survival and contract from areas that are projected to become hotter and drier under climate change. The effects of likely climatic scenarios on the global potential distribution of H. hirta are sufficiently great that they should be considered routinely in strategic control plans for biotic invasions. Changes in the potential range of an invasive species such as H. hirta| under global warming scenarios| will mean that it could invade new jurisdictions. Knowledge of this emerging threat could help to formulate effective prevention| surveillance and response measures in these presently marginally unsuitable regions. 10666,2010,4,2,The development of general circulation models of climate,With the coming of digital computers in the 1950s| a small American team set out to model the weather| followed by attempts to represent the entire general circulation of the atmosphere. The work spread during the 1960s| and by the 1970s a few modelers had produced somewhat realistic looking models of the planet's regional climate pattern. The work took on wider interest when modelers tried increasing the level of greenhouse gases| and invariably found serious global warming. Skeptics pointed to dubious technical features| but by the late 1990s these problems were largely resolved-thanks to enormous increases in computer power| the number and size of the closely interacting teams that now comprised the international modeling community| and the crucial availability of field experiments and satellite data to set against the models' assumptions and outputs. By 2007 nearly all climate experts accepted that the climate simulations represented reality well enough to impel strong action to restrict gas emissions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10528,2010,2,3,The economic impact of future increase in tropical cyclones in Japan,This article estimates the non-first-order economic loss in Japan due to a future increase in tropical cyclones. One possible effect of global warming could be the increase in intensity of tropical cyclones. Using historical storm tracks between the years 1978 and 2007 and altering their intensities due to this potential increase in their intensity| this paper calculates the future potential regional GDP loss in a certain area that is affected by tropical cyclones. Most of the literature is concerned with physical damage and the loss of lives due to tropical cyclones. However| there are additional economic costs when sustained wind speeds are higher than 30 knots (55.56 km/h)| a level that generally will lead to a precautionary cessation of many human activities. Using a Monte Carlo simulation| the paper calculates the potential economic costs for the year 2085 under a climate change scenario with a linear one-per cent yearly increase in CO(2). Using a spatial distribution of economic activity in Japan| it is possible to forecast which parts of the country are likely to experience the highest loss risk. 10509,2010,3,4,The Effect of Biofuel Production on Swine Farm Methane and Ammonia Emissions,Methane (CH(4)) and ammonia (NH(3)) are emitted to the atmosphere during anaerobic processing of organic matter| and both gases have detrimental environmental effects. Methane conversion to biofuel production has been suggested to reduce CH(4) emissions from animal manure processing systems. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the change in CH(4) and NH(3) emissions in an animal feeding operation due to biofuel production from the animal manure. Gas emissions were measured from swine farms differing only in their manure-management treatment systems (conventional vs. biofuel). By removing organic matter (i.e.| carbon) from the biofuel farms' manure-processing lagoons| average annual CH(4) emissions were decreased by 47% compared with the conventional farm. This represents a net 44% decrease in global warming potential (CO(2) equivalent) by gases emitted from the biofuel farms compared with conventional farms. However| because of the reduction of methanogenesis and its reduced effect on the chemical conversion of ammonium (NH(4)(+)) to dinitrogen (N(2)) gas| NH(3) emissions in the biofuel farms increased by 46% over the conventional farms. These studies show that what is considered an environmentally friendly technology had mixed results and that all components of a system should be studied when making changes to existing systems. 10709,2010,3,4,The effect of biogas digestion on the environmental impact and energy balances in organic cropping systems using the life-cycle assessment methodology,A life-cycle assessment (LCA) was carried out to compare the environmental performance of different organic cropping systems with and without digestion of slurry and crop residues. The aims of the present study are: (1) to compare the environmental performance of organic farming dairy systems with the currently prevalent animal housing systems [solid farmyard manure (FYM) versus liquid slurry] as the main reference systems; (2) to analyze the effect of the implementation of a biogas digestion system on the consumption of fossil fuels and production of electrical energy; (3) to quantify the effects of the implementation of a biogas digestion system on the environment; and (4) to compare the obtained net energy yields with other means of obtaining energy by using the farmland area. The considered impact categories are greenhouse gas (GHG) balances| acidification| eutrophication and groundwater pollution. LCA results indicated that total emissions in systems based on FYM are much higher than in liquid slurry systems for most of the considered impact categories. The benefits of digestion of stable wastes in comparison with the reference system without digestion are mainly (1) the net reduction of the emissions of GHG and (2) energy recovery from produced biogas| while the disadvantages can be higher emissions of NH(3) after spreading. The effects of additional biogas digestion of biomass such as crop residues (e. g.| straw of peas and cereals) and cover crops are: (1) an optimization of the N-cycle and therewith higher yields; (2) higher energy production per unit arable land; (3) a further reduction of the GHG balance; but (4) higher N-related environmental burdens like eutrophication and acidification. The offsets of fossil fuel emissions were the largest GHG sink in most of the biogas digestion systems. The inclusion of a biogas plant into organic cropping systems and the use of the available wastes for production of energy largely increased the overall productivity of the farming system and matched very well the basic principles of organic farming such as a high self-sufficiency of the cropping system and reducing as much as possible the environmental impact of farming. 10845,2010,2,4,The effect of climate change on the growth of Japanese chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) using a bioenergetics model coupled with a three-dimensional lower trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO),From the 1970s to 1990s| a reduction in the body size of Japanese chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) was observed. To investigate this body size reduction in the North Pacific| we developed a bioenergetics model for chum salmon coupled with the results from a lower trophic ecosystem model embedded into a three-dimensional global model. In the bioenergetics model| respiration and consumption terms are assumed to be functions of water temperature and prey zooplankton density| which are the determining factors of the reduction of body size. The model reproduced the body size of the 1972 and 1991 year classes of chum salmon. The reproduced body size of the 1972 year class was larger than that of 1991 year class| and this result agrees with observations from the Bering Sea. Our model also reproduced the body size trend from 1970 to 2000. The prey density| especially in the eastern North Pacific| had a greater influence on the change of body size than did the SST. This suggests that the size reduction of Japanese chum salmon in the 1990s was partly affected by changes in prey zooplankton density. In the context of the global warming scenario| we discuss changes in the migration route of chum salmon and predict that the population of Japanese chum salmon experience significant declines over this century. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11470,2010,3,3,The Effect of Different Irrigation Methods on Soil Carbon Dioxide Emission,Global warming and greenhouse gas emission are one of the important researches in recent years. There are a wide range of greenhouse gas resources and one of them is agricultural activities. During agricultural activities CO(2) emission from soil occurs. Water requirement in plant production is met by using various irrigation methods. The most widely used methods are drip irrigation| sprinkler irrigation and surface irrigation. Drip irrigation in recent years has been preferred due to its less water use. This study was carried out to determine soil CO(2) emission in apple orchard of Jersey Mac apple cultivars grafted on M9 which was irrigated by drip irrigation| sprinkler irrigation and surface irrigation methods. In the study| soil CO(2) flux was measured after irrigation. CO(2) flux of drip| sprinkler and surface irrigation was 0.065| 0.071 and 0.084 g.CO(2).m(-2).h(-1)| respectively. Evaporation from the soil was 8.06| 8.85 and 8.95 g.H(2)O.m(-2).h(-1) for drip| sprinkler and surface irrigation| respectively. Even though there were no significant differences among irrigation methods in terms of CO(2) flux and evaporation value (P>0.05)| these results indicated that CO(2) emission and evaporation values in drip irrigation method tended to decrease. 10519,2010,2,4,The effect of elevated temperature on spawning of introduced pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus in Europe,In an experimental comparison of pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus reproduction under ambient and climate change water temperature regimes| spawning occurred earlier in the season| which is likely to lead to greater young-of-the-year survival with concomitant implications in the U.K. under warmer climatic conditions. 11468,2010,3,2,The Effect of Nitrogenous Fertilizers on Methane Oxidation in Soil,One of the most prominent applications to increase agricultural yield is the application of nitrogenous fertilizers to the soil. The intermediate and final products of the mineralization/humidification include carbon dioxide (CO(2))| methane (CH(4))| and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) are released into the atmosphere while other final products are cycled into the soil upon completion of the related reactions that take place in soil. Released CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O are the most notable factors responsible for global warming and are claimed to be remarkably serious When one accounts for all of the agricultural lands and other similar fields all around the globe. In the present study| the impact of NH(4)NO(3) with 26% N| which consisted of 19% NH(4)-N (ammonium-N) and 7% NO(3)-N (nitrate-N)| with and without nitrification inhibitor in the soil on CH(4)| CO(2) and N(2)O gas emissions was monitored in a controlled laboratory environment as three parallel experiments. The amount of fertilizer applied to the soil layer was 90 kg N per hectare. The two treated soils and one control soil were incubated at 60% maximal water holding capacity at 25 degrees C during the test period of 18 days to investigate| (a) nitrogenous fertilizer (NH(4)NO(3))| (b) nitrogenous fertilizer phis nitrification inhibitor (NH(4)NO(3) + N.I.)| and finally (c) control for CH(4)| CO(2)| and N(2)O emissions. Gas compositions from the experimental soils were sampled at predetermined times in order to assess the CH(4) release along with N(2)O and CO(2) emissions. Analyses of the headspace on the 1(st)| 2(nd)| 4(th)| 7(th)| 10(th)| 14(th) and 18(th) days were completed in order to evaluate gas concentrations. The overall results indicate that NH(4)NO(3) fertilization and NH(4)NO(3) with a nitrification inhibitor application causes a statistically significant decrease in CH(4) emissions and an increase in CO(2) emissions into the atmosphere. N(2)O emissions were found to be statistically different with the NH(4)NO(3) application and control treatments. Yet| no significant change was observed in| the N(2)O concentrations with respect to nine| based on the NH(4)NO(3) with a nitrification inhibitor application compared to the control group.
11435,2010,3,3,THE EFFECT OF REFRIGERANT OUTLET TEMPERATURE FOR EXERGY EFFICIENCY OF HEAT PUMPS USING CO(2),Because of the global warming| usage of natural refrigerants is being common in large scale. CO| cooling systems especially preferred at vehicle air conditioners and hot water heat pump applications. In this study| a single stage heat pump using CO(2) refrigerant and having transcritical cycle is theoretically modeled. The effect of gas cooler outlet temperature for exergetic efficiency of heat pump is presented. Range of evaporating temperature is selected between -10 and +10 C degrees values. Calculations are made by software (EES-Engineering Equation Solver)| and results are presented graphically. 10629,2010,3,4,The effects of Al(2)O(3)-TiO(2) coating in a diesel engine on performance and emission of corn oil methyl ester,Today| as a result of increase in oil prices| limited fossil fuel resources| environmental consideration and global warming| the methyl ester fuels have been focused on alternative fuels. Methyl ester fuels can be used more efficiently in low heat rejection engines (LHR)| in which the temperature of combustion chamber is increased by creating a thermal barrier. In this study| the piston| cylinder head| exhaust and inlet valves of a diesel engine were coated with the ceramic material Al(2)O(3)-TiO(2) by the plasma spray method. Thus| a thermal barrier was provided for the parts of the combustion chamber with these coatings. The effects of corn oil methyl ester that produced by the transesterification method| and No. D2 fuels' performance and exhaust emissions' rate were studied by using equal in every respect coated and uncoated engines. Tests were performed on the uncoated engine| and then repeated on the coated engine and the results were compared. A decrease in engine power and specific fuel consumption| as well as significant improvements in exhaust gas emissions (except NOx)| were observed for all test fuels used in the coated engine compared with that of the uncoated engine. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 434,2010,2,4,The effects of alterations in temperature and flow regime on organic carbon dynamics in Mediterranean river networks,It is only recently that freshwaters have been identified as important quantitative components of the carbon (C) cycle at global and regional scales. To date there are no studies that quantitatively predict the effects of alterations in temperature and flow regimes| individually| or in concert| on organic C dynamics in streams. To address this need| we applied a mechanistic model to simulate organic C dynamics in Mediterranean river networks under 27 different scenarios of altered temperature and flow regimes. We predict that the organic C dynamics in freshwaters in the Mediterranean| as well as in other semiarid regions| will be highly sensitive to global climate change owing to major increases in the degree of intermittency as well as in flood frequency and magnitude. Results indicate that flow regime alterations increase C export rates| whereas temperature alterations increase instream metabolism of organic C. However| flow regime alterations exhibit a much greater influence on C dynamics than do changes in the temperature regime. Reservoirs partly counteract the effects of flow extremes on C export rates| and their role in the C dynamics increases with increasing flow variability. The present study is one of the first studies to quantify the complex interactions between the flow and the temperature regime on C dynamics| emphasizing the key role of extreme events such as dry periods and floods| compared with overall trend effects. This information is pivotal in understanding the impact of future climate change on global C dynamics. 11469,2010,2,4,The Effects of Cold Shock on The Longevity in Oregon R wild and Vestigial mutant of Drosophila melanogaster (Diptera: Drosophilidae),The affects global warming and climate change promise to be one of the most important environmental problem In the next millenium. It is indicated that|in increase in temperature by changes in global climate will not only happen at the same time. but some regions may incur in the sudden cooling. In this study| the effects of cold shock on the longevity of Drosophila melanogaster were analyzed. The flies used in the experiments were Oregon R wild type and Vestigial mutant type of D. melanogaster. For this study| a -3 degrees C cold shock was applied to the experimental groups it different durations (1| 2 and 3 hours). According to our results| it was observed that the mean female and male populations life span of the Oregon R wild type and Vestigial mutant type of D. melanogaster was reduced depending on the increase in the groups. duration on the experimental groups. The difference in terms of life span was statistically significant (p<0.05 and p<0.001) according to the control group. 419,2010,2,4,The effects of host size and temperature on the emergence of Echinoparyphium recurvatum cercariae from Lymnaea peregra under natural light conditions,The production of cercariae from their snail host is a fundamental component of transmission success in trematodes. The emergence of Echinoparyphium recurvatum (Trematoda: Echinostomatidae) cercariae from Lymnaea peregra was studied under natural sunlight conditions| using naturally infected snails of different sizes (10-17 mm) within a temperature range of 10-29 degrees C. There was a single photoperiodic circadian cycle of emergence with one peak| which correlated with the maximum diffuse sunlight irradiation. At 21 degrees C the daily number of emerging cercariae increased with increasing host snail size| but variations in cercarial emergence did occur between both individual snails and different days. There was only limited evidence of cyclic emergence patterns over a 3-week period| probably due to extensive snail mortality| particularly those in the larger size classes. Very few cercariae emerged in all snail size classes at the lowest temperature studied (10 degrees C)| but at increasingly higher temperatures elevated numbers of cercariae emerged| reaching an optimum between 17 and 25 degrees C. Above this range emergence was reduced. At all temperatures more cercariae emerged from larger snails. Analysis of emergence using the Q(10) value| a measure of physiological processes over temperature ranges| showed that between 10 and 21 degrees C (approximate to 15 degrees C) Q(10) values exceeded 100 for all snail size classes| indicating a substantially greater emergence than would be expected for normal physiological rates. From 14 to 25 degrees C (approximate to 20 degrees C) cercarial emergence in most snail size classes showed little change in Q(10)| although in the smallest size class emergence was still substantially greater than the typical Q(10) increase expected over this temperature range. At the highest range of 21-29 degrees C (approximate to 25 degrees C)| Q(10) was much reduced. The importance of these results for cercarial emergence under global climate change is discussed. 10768,2010,2,4,THE EFFECTS OF SAND TEMPERATURE ON PRE-EMERGENT GREEN SEA TURTLE HATCHLINGS,Sand temperature can play an important role in the survival of pre-emergent sea turtle hatchlings. High sand temperatures may inhibit coordinated muscle action in the ascent process to the sand surface and also may cause a decline in oxygen levels within the nest. These factors can increase mortality of hatchlings prior to emergence. In this study we analyze the effects of sand temperature on pre-emergent Green Sea Turtle (Chelonia mydas) hatchlings in Tortuguero| Costa Rica. We also analyze the relationship between sand temperature and egg incubation period| hatching success and hatchling emergence percentage. Nests were selected from June to August 2000| so that hatchlings would emerge during two distinct periods: a period of low temperatures and abundant rainfall mainly during August (wet period| WP) and a period of higher temperatures and lower rainfall mainly during September and early October (dry period| DP). Air and sand temperatures were significantly higher in the DP. Increases in sand temperature reduced incubation period from 58.6 +/- 0.6 days in the WP to 56.4 +/- 0.5 days in the DP. Mean hatching success and emergence percentage were 86 +/- 3% and 96 +/- 1%| respectively| and were not associated with the nest initiation date. However| a negative association was found between the emergence percentage and the mean sand temperature at 40 cm depth in the pre-emergence days. Pre-emergent hatchlings may experience increased mortality when sand temperatures at the egg chamber neck level exceed 33 degrees C. When one takes into account global warming projections| hatchling mortality during pre-emergence days could increase and pose a serious threat to this green sea turtle population. 10679,2010,3,4,The environmental impact of the construction phase: An application to composite walls from a life cycle perspective,Life Cycle Assessment methodology has been applied to a typical block of flats located in Barcelona| Spain to evaluate environmental impacts during the construction phase. The aim of this paper is to develop and apply several criteria for the building sector that help decision making at the design and construction stages| thereby allowing the selection of sustainable building materials| reducing the environmental impact of the materials used| minimizing the amount of waste generated| and increasing the percentage of this waste that is recycled. From a life cycle perspective during the construction phase| results showed that regarding to environmental impact of global warming potential| there was a total emission of 1.19E+01 kg CO(2) equiv. m(-2) y(-1) (referred to m(2) of horizontal constructed area) of which about 85% was during the fabrication| while the rest was due to the energy consumed (8%)| transport (6%) and waste management (1%). When analysing the whole building| the total waste obtained in the construction phase was 4.56E+01 kg m(-2) of which rest of materials account for 84% (internal and external walls 30%| architectural finishing 23% and foundations and basement 19%) and packaging waste represents 16% (roofing 31%| structural frame 22%| architectural finishing 15% and internal and external walls 10% of the total waste). Finally| in this paper we compare the different combinations of real construction scenarios for external and internal walls while taking into account the environmental and economic aspects and also three different systems of waste management: landfill| incineration and recycling have been evaluated. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10734,2010,3,4,The environmental performance of milk production on a typical Portuguese dairy farm,The activities associated with raw milk production on dairy farms require an effective evaluation of their environmental impact. The present study evaluates the global environmental impacts associated with milk production on dairy farms in Portugal and identifies the processes that have the greatest environmental impact by using life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The main factors involved in milk production were included| namely: the dairy farm| maize silage| ryegrass silage| straw| concentrates| diesel and electricity. The results suggest that the major source of air and water emissions in the life cycle of milk is the production of concentrates. The activities carried out on dairy farms were the major source of nitrous oxides (from fuel combustion)| ammonia| and methane (from manure management and enteric fermentation). Nevertheless| dairy farm activities| which include manure management| enteric fermentation and diesel consumption| make the greatest contributions to the categories of impact considered| with the exception of the abiotic depletion category| contributing to over 70% of the total global warming potential (1021.3 kg CO(2) eq. per tonne of milk)| 84% of the total photochemical oxidation potential (0.2 kg C(2)H(4) eq. per tonne of milk)| 70% of the total acidification potential (20.4 kg SO(2) eq. per tonne of milk)| and 41% of the total eutrophication potential (7.1 kg PO(4)(3-) eq. per tonne of milk). The production of concentrates and maize silage are the major contributors to the abiotic depletion category| accounting for 35% and 28%| respectively| of the overall abiotic depletion potential (1.4 Sb eq. per tonne of milk). Based on this LCA case study| we recommend further work to evaluate some possible opportunities to improve the environmental performance of Portuguese milk production| namely: (i) implementing integrated solutions for manure recovery/treatment (e.g. anaerobic digestion) before its application to the soil as organic fertiliser during maize and ryegrass production; (ii) improving manure nutrient use efficiency in order to decrease the importation of nutrients; (iii) diversifying feeding crops| as the dependence on two annual forage crops is expected to lead to excessive soil mobilisation (and related impacts) and to insignificant carbon dioxide sequestration from the atmosphere; and (iv) changing the concentrate mixtures. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10881,2010,5,3,The Eocene storm-dominated foralgal ramp of the western Pyrenees (Urbasa-Andia Formation): An analogue of future shallow-marine carbonate systems?,If the ongoing phenomenon of global warming prevails| three main consequences are expected in tropical seas: a higher sea level| a reduction in coral reefs and more intense cyclones. What will shallow-marine carbonate systems be like? Insights can be gained from the Pyrenean Urbasa-Andia Formation| a transgressive heterozoan-like foralgal (larger foraminiferal and red algal) ramp that formed in Middle Eocene times| a greenhouse interval characterized by high atmospheric CO(2) content. Firstly| the evolution of future tropical shallow-marine systems subject to a sea-level rise is very likely to be similar to that seen in the backstepping architecture of the Urbasa-Andia Formation. Secondly| Eocene larger foraminifers rose when the Paleocene-Eocene hyperthermal event caused a decline in corals in tropical seas. Coral reefs are again among the ecosystems that are likely to be particularly affected by current global warming. It is therefore probable that future shallow-marine tropical ecosystems will be devoid of platform margin coral reefs| heterozoan ramps being far more common. Thirdly| strong storm influence was common on the Urbasa-Andia carbonate ramp| the most distinctive feature being a distal dune field that was formed below storm wave base by high-energy return currents. Similar features also characterize other Eocene carbonate ramps. Furthermore| numerical simulations highlighted the effect of strong tropical cyclones during the equable climate of the Eocene. Together this information supports the hypothesis that tropical cyclone activity may increase under future greenhouse conditions. Taking everything into account| the transgressive storm-dominated foralgal ramp represented by the Urbasa-Andia Formation can be used as a virtual analogue of future shallow-marine carbonate sedimentary environments developed under greenhouse conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11031,2010,3,6,The Fallacies of Concurrent Climate Policy Efforts,Climate policy has assumed an extreme degree of urgency in the international debate in recent years. This article begins by taking a critical look at the scientific underpinnings of the efforts to stabilize the climate. It points to several serious question marks on the purported relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming| and expresses distrust about claims of impending catastrophes related to rising sea levels| hurricanes| and spread of infectious disease. It then reviews the concurrent climate policy efforts and concludes that they are incoherent| misguided and unduly costly| and that they have so far had no perceptible impact on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The exceedingly ambitious policy plans currently under preparation suffer from similar fallacies. For these reasons| but also because of the remaining scientific doubts and the exorbitant costs that have to be incurred| skepticism is expressed about the preparedness to implement the climate policy plans currently on the table. 10410,2010,2,4,The first record of the parthenogenetic Marmorkrebs (Decapoda| Astacida| Cambaridae) in the wild in Saxony (Germany) raises the question of its actual threat to European freshwater ecosystems,A cambarid specimen was collected in a brook in Saxony (south-cast Germany). Preliminary morphological inspection identified it as the parthenogenetic Marmorkrebs (Decapoda| Astacida| Cambaridae). However| this individual showed some striking morphological differences compared to specimens of our laboratory Marmorkrebs culture. Hence| we conducted a molecular analysis based on two mitochondria! genes| COI and 12S| to check its identity. The results of the genetic study verified the initial assumption of a Marmorkrebs identity for the Saxon specimen. Thus| in addition to the two indigenous species| the new find is the fourth recorded introduced crayfish species in this area. However| a search for further Marmorkrebs specimens at the same site was not successful. Most published records of Marmorkrebs in European waters concern just single individuals and an established population has so far not been observed. This stands in contrast to other recently introduced cambarid species. Thus| we critically discuss the potential of the Marmorkrebs to spread within Europe. The major obstacle may be that the temperature necessary for optimal development and reproduction of the Marmorkrebs is significantly higher than that found in most European waters. However| given globally increasing temperatures| this might change in the future. 10761,2010,5,4,The flora of Early Permian coal measures from the Parana Basin in Brazil: A review,This paper presents an updated overview integrating both previous and newly published data on the most important floras found associated with Early Permian coal seams in the Parana Basin| Brazil. These floras occur within the Rio Bonito Formation and correspond to the Gondwana "Glossopteris Flora." For this review| five floras are selected| in ascending stratigraphic order: the "Sao Joao do Triunfo|" "Figueira." "Quiteria|" "Morro do Papaleo" and "Irapua Bed" floras. They are the best-known floras of the basin in terms of taxonomic composition| paleoecology and environments of deposition. An early-mid Sakmarian to earliest Artinskian age is indicated for the Rio Bonito Formation based on absolute radiometric and relative biostratigraphic ages. Integration of available information about the selected floras allows evaluation of taphonomic and paleoecological factors to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the Early Permian floral record in the Parana Basin. The variation observed in both the taxonomic composition of individual floras and in the frequency of occurrence of different plant groups is due to the broad range of environmental/edaphic conditions that prevailed in the many different depositional settings represented in the Rio Bonito Formation. A more precise age determination obtained for the plant-bearing deposits permits the establishment of a more confident correlation between the Early Permian floral succession in the Parana Basin and other Early Permian floral successions in other basins. The Sakmarian global warming favored the appearance of pecopterid and sphenopterid ferns amongst the spore-producing plants| and the glossopterids amongst the pollen-producing plants. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10609,2010,2,4,The Frankincense tree (Boswellia sacra| Burseraceae) from Oman: ITS and ISSR analyses of genetic diversity and implications for conservation,DNA sequences from the ITS region of the nuclear genome and Inter-Simple Sequence Repeat markers (ISSR) were used to estimate genetic diversity among and within populations of the Frankincense tree Boswellia sacra from Dhofar| Oman. This is a culturally and ecologically relevant species that is showing symptoms of decline due to anthropic factors and| possibly| global warming. ITS sequences were 511 bp long and showed low (6.4%) variation among geographically different populations. The four selected ISSR primers yielded 93 reproducible bands| of which 91 (97.9%) were polymorphic in the 97 individual profiles obtained. Total genetic diversity (H (T)) and average heterozygosity within populations (H (S)) resulted fairly low (0.22 and 0.136| respectively). The accession from Wadi Dowkah| an UNESCO world heritage site| showed the lowest level of genetic diversity (H (E) = 0.107)| while the eastern populations from the Hasik area harboured a slightly greater amount of variation. Analysis of Molecular Variance showed that differentiation among populations was relatively high (38.1%)| possibly due to the reduced gene flow between the largely isolated stands of Boswellia (N (m) = 0.39). Genetic distances and AMOVA suggested a clear differentiation between the eastern and western coastal populations| while those from the internal area did not form a consistent group. For conservation| the eastern sites should be given priority as core populations harbouring significant amounts of allelic diversity. Reasons for reinforcing the more depauperated stands| such as Wadi Dowkah| with local plant material only or| alternatively| with the introduction of germplasm from genetically distinct stands are discussed. 10689,2010,4,4,The functional potential of high Arctic permafrost revealed by metagenomic sequencing| qPCR and microarray analyses,The fate of the carbon stocked in permafrost following global warming and permafrost thaw is of major concern in view of the potential for increased CH(4) and CO(2) emissions from these soils. Complex carbon compound degradation and greenhouse gas emissions are due to soil microbial communities| but no comprehensive study has yet addressed their composition and functional potential in permafrost. Here| a 2-m deep permafrost sample and its overlying active layer soil were subjected to metagenomic sequencing| quantitative PCR (qPCR) and microarray analyses. The active layer soil and the 2-m permafrost microbial community structures were very similar| with Actinobacteria being the dominant phylum. The two samples also possessed a highly similar spectrum of functional genes| especially when compared with other already published metagenomes. Key genes related to methane generation| methane oxidation and organic matter degradation were highly diverse for both samples in the metagenomic libraries and some (for example| pmoA) showed relatively high abundance in qPCR assays. Genes related to nitrogen fixation and ammonia oxidation| which could have important roles following climatic change in these nitrogen-limited environments| showed low diversity but high abundance. The 2-m permafrost showed lower abundance and diversity for all the assessed genes and taxa. Experimental biases were also evaluated using qPCR and showed that the whole-community genome amplification technique used caused representational biases in the metagenomic libraries by increasing the abundance of Bacteroidetes and decreasing the abundance of Actinobacteria. This study describes for the first time the detailed functional potential of permafrost-affected soils. The ISME Journal (2010) 4| 1206-1214; doi: 10.1038/ismej.2010.41; published online 15 April 2010 11320,2010,3,3,The Genome Sequence of the Rumen Methanogen Methanobrevibacter ruminantium Reveals New Possibilities for Controlling Ruminant Methane Emissions,Background: Methane (CH(4)) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG)| having a global warming potential 21 times that of carbon dioxide (CO(2)). Methane emissions from agriculture represent around 40% of the emissions produced by human-related activities| the single largest source being enteric fermentation| mainly in ruminant livestock. Technologies to reduce these emissions are lacking. Ruminant methane is formed by the action of methanogenic archaea typified by Methanobrevibacter ruminantium| which is present in ruminants fed a wide variety of diets worldwide. To gain more insight into the lifestyle of a rumen methanogen| and to identify genes and proteins that can be targeted to reduce methane production| we have sequenced the 2.93 Mb genome of M. ruminantium M1| the first rumen methanogen genome to be completed. Methodology/Principal Findings: The M1 genome was sequenced| annotated and subjected to comparative genomic and metabolic pathway analyses. Conserved and methanogen-specific gene sets suitable as targets for vaccine development or chemogenomic-based inhibition of rumen methanogens were identified. The feasibility of using a synthetic peptide-directed vaccinology approach to target epitopes of methanogen surface proteins was demonstrated. A prophage genome was described and its lytic enzyme| endoisopeptidase PeiR| was shown to lyse M1 cells in pure culture. A predicted stimulation of M1 growth by alcohols was demonstrated and microarray analyses indicated up-regulation of methanogenesis genes during co-culture with a hydrogen (H(2)) producing rumen bacterium. We also report the discovery of non-ribosomal peptide synthetases in M. ruminantium M1| the first reported in archaeal species. Conclusions/Significance: The M1 genome sequence provides new insights into the lifestyle and cellular processes of this important rumen methanogen. It also defines vaccine and chemogenomic targets for broad inhibition of rumen methanogens and represents a significant contribution to worldwide efforts to mitigate ruminant methane emissions and reduce production of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. 10934,2010,2,4,The impact of an urban dry island on the summer heat wave and sultry weather in Beijing City,This paper studies interdecadal variations of heat waves and sultry weather (HW&SW) in Beijing City by using climatological data gathered from 1940-2000. In general| HW&SW decreased during the 1940s-1970s and increased during the 1970s-1990s. Although variation trends in the number of HW&SW days coincide with air temperature variations| the greatest number of HW&SW days occurred during the 1940s rather than during the much hotter 1990s (which had an average 1.0 degrees C higher air temperature than during the 1940s). The synoptic situations of HW&SW and the correlation analysis between HW&SW occurrences and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) index seem to indicate that HW&SW days during the 1990s should exceed those during the 1940s; however| that is not the case. Post-1980s interdecadal variations of the Urban Dry Island (UDI) effect in Beijing City were analyzed in order to explain this inconsistent phenomenon. Our results show that| while the probability of HW&SW occurrences in Beijing City should have been greater due to global warming and increasing summer Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity| the UDI effect is magnified by rapid urbanization. In addition| the physical comfort index is more sensitive to relative humidity under high temperature conditions. Therefore| the occurrence of HW&SW days during the 1990s is partially offset by the enhanced UDI in Beijing City. 10969,2010,2,3,The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape,Weather data generated for different parts of the UK under five climate change scenarios (baseline| 2020s low CO(2) emissions| 2020s high emissions| 2050s low emissions| 2050s high emissions) were inputted into weather-based models for predicting oilseed rape yields and yield losses from the two most important diseases| phoma stem canker and light leaf spot. An economic analysis of the predictions made by the models was done to provide a basis to guide government and industry planning for adaptation to effects of climate change on crops to ensure future food security. Modelling predicted that yields of fungicide-treated oilseed rape would increase by the 2020s and continue to increase by the 2050s| particularly in Scotland and northern England. If stem canker and light leaf spot were effectively controlled| the value of the crop was predicted to increase above the baseline 1980s value by 13 pound M in England and 28 pound M in Scotland by the 2050s under a high CO(2) emissions scenario. However| in contrast to predictions that phoma stem canker will increase in severity and range with climate change| modelling indicated that losses due to light leaf spot will decrease in both Scotland and England. Combined losses from both phoma stem canker and light leaf spot are predicted to increase| with yield losses of up to 40% in southern England and some regions of Scotland by the 2050s under the high emission scenarios. For this scenario| UK disease losses are predicted to increase by 50 pound M (by comparison with the baseline losses). However| the predicted increases in fungicide-treated (potential) yield and phoma stem canker/light leaf spot yield losses compensate for each other so that the net UK losses from climate change for untreated oilseed rape are small. 10992,2010,2,4,The impact of droughts and water management on various hydrological systems in the headwaters of the Tagus River (central Spain),The influence of climate variation on the availability of water resources was analyzed in the headwaters of the Tagus River basin using two drought indices| the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). This basin is highly regulated and strategic| and contains two hyperannual reservoirs that are the origin of the water supply system for Mediterranean areas of southeast Spain. The indices confirmed that drought conditions have prevailed in the headwaters of the Tagus River since the 1970s. The responses in river discharge and reservoir storage were slightly higher when based on the SPEI rather than the SPI| which indicates that although precipitation had a major role in explaining temporal variability in the analyzed parameters| the influence of temperature was not negligible. Moreover| the greatest response in hydrological variables was evident over longer timescales of the climatic drought indices. Although the effect of climate variability on water resources was substantial during the analyzed period| we also showed a major change in hydrological-climatic relationships in regulated systems including reservoir storage and outflow. These were closely related to changes in external demand following commencement of the water transfer system to the jucar and Segura basins after the 1980s. The marked reduction in water availability in the basin| which is related to more frequent droughts| contrasts with the amount of water transferred| which shows a clear upward trend associated with increasing water demand in the Mediterranean basin. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11433,2010,2,4,The impact of environmental temperature on larval development and metamorph body condition in the common toad| Bufo bufo,The dates when common toads first started to spawn (1980-2009) and when metamorphs first started to emerge from the natal pond (1984-2009) were recorded annually at a pond in southern England. Data loggers were used to record daily pond water temperatures between 1995-1999 and 2002-2009. The SVL and body mass of newly emerged metamorphs were recorded between 2003-2009. The dates of first spawn deposition varied between years by up to 60 days| from 28th January 2007 to 29th March 2006. The duration of the tadpole stage was negatively correlated with the date of first spawn deposition and with the mean pond water temperature during the tadpole stage. Although the duration of the tadpole stage was longer when spawning was early| compared to when it was late| metamorphs emerged from the pond up to 37 days earlier when spawning was early but with a lower body condition than when spawning was late. The body condition of newly emerged metamorphs was highly correlated with the temperature of the pond water they experienced as tadpoles. The potential benefit of early metamorphosis in providing a longer period of time for toadlet growth| before entering their first hibernation| may be counterbalanced by their poorer body condition when compared with later emerging metamorphs. 11136,2010,3,3,The impact of extensive planting of Miscanthus as an energy crop on future CO(2) atmospheric concentrations,A process-based model of the energy crop Miscanthus x giganteus is integrated into the global climate impact model IMOGEN| simulating the potential of large-scale Miscanthus plantation to offset fossil fuel emissions during the 21st century. This simulation produces spatially explicit| annual projections of Miscanthus yields from the present day to the year 2100 under an SRES A2 anthropogenic emissions scenario and includes the effects of climate change. IMOGEN also simulates natural vegetation and soil carbon storage throughout the 21st century. The benefit of Miscanthus cultivation (avoiding fossil fuel emissions of CO(2)) is then compared with the cost of displacing natural vegetation (carbon emissions from vegetation and soil). The time taken for these effects to cancel out| the pay-back time| is calculated regionally. The effects of large-scale Miscanthus plantation are then integrated globally to produce an estimate of atmospheric CO(2) concentrations throughout the 21st century. Our best estimate of the pay-back time for Miscanthus plantation is 30 years. We project a maximum possible reduction in atmospheric CO(2) of 323 ppmv by the end of 21st century| with a reduction of 162 ppmv corresponding to the best estimate scenario. 10546,2010,2,3,The Impact of Global Warming on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds over the Eastern Pacific-A Regional Model Study,Cloud simulations and cloud-climate feedbacks in the tropical and subtropical eastern Pacific region in 16 state-of-the-art coupled global climate models (GCMs) and in the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) Regional Atmospheric Model (iRAM) are examined. The authors find that the simulation of the present-day mean cloud climatology for this region in the GCMs is very poor and that the cloud-climate feedbacks vary widely among the GCMs. By contrast| iRAM simulates mean clouds and interannual cloud variations that are quite similar to those observed in this region. The model also simulates well the observed relationship between lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and low-level cloud amount. To investigate cloud-climate feedbacks in iRAM| several global warming scenarios were run with boundary conditions appropriate for late twenty-first-century conditions. All the global warming cases simulated with iRAM show a distinct reduction in low-level cloud amount| particularly in the stratocumulus regime| resulting in positive local feedback parameters in these regions in the range of 4-7 W m(-2) K(-1). Domain-averaged (30 degrees S-30 degrees N| 150 degrees-60 degrees W) feedback parameters from iRAM range between +1.8 and +1.9 W m(-2) K(-1). At most locations both the LTS and cloud amount are altered in the global warming cases| but the changes in these variables do not follow the empirical relationship found in the present-day experiments. The cloud-climate feedback averaged over the same east Pacific region was also calculated from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B simulations for each of the 16 GCMs with results that varied from -1.0 to +1.3 W m(-2) K(-1)| all less than the values obtained in the comparable iRAM simulations. The iRAM results by themselves cannot be connected definitively to global climate feedbacks; however| among the global GCMs the cloud feedback in the full tropical-subtropical zone is correlated strongly with the east Pacific cloud feedback| and the cloud feedback largely determines the global climate sensitivity. The present iRAM results for cloud feedbacks in the east Pacific provide some support for the high end of current estimates of global climate sensitivity. 10454,2010,2,4,The impact of ice melting on bacterioplankton in the Arctic Ocean,Global warming and the associated ice melt are leading to an increase in the organic carbon in the Arctic Ocean. We evaluated the effects of ice melt on bacterioplankton at 21 stations in the Greenland Sea and Arctic Ocean in the summer of 2007| when a historical minimum of Arctic ice coverage was measured. Polar Surface Waters| which have a low temperature and low salinity and originate mainly from melted ice| contained a very low abundance of bacteria (7.01 x 10(5) +/- A 2.20 x 10(5) cells ml(-1)); however| these bacteria had high specific bacterial production (2.40 +/- A 1.61 fmol C bac(-1) d(-1)) compared to those in Atlantic Waters. Specifically| bacterioplankton in Polar Surface Waters showed a preference for utilizing carbohydrates and had significantly higher specific activities of the glycosidases assayed| i.e. beta-glucosidase| xylosidase| arabinosidase and cellobiosidase. Furthermore| bacterioplankton in Polar Sea Waters showed preferential growth on some of the carbohydrates in the Biolog Ecoplate| such as d-cellobiose and N-acetyl-d-glucosamine. Our results suggest that climate change and the associated melting of Arctic ice might induce changes in bacterioplankton functional diversity by enhancing the turnover of carbohydrates. Since organic aggregates are largely composed of polysaccharides| higher solubilization of aggregates might modify the carbon cycle| weaken the biological pump and have biogeochemical and ecological implications for the future Arctic Ocean. 11368,2010,2,4,The impact of temperature and precipitation variation on drought in China in last 50 years,Based on homogeneo us temeperature| precipitation and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data between 1958 and 2007 of 194 stations in China| quantitative measure of impact of global warming and precipitation variation on the formation of drought in China is made through a statistical model. Dividing China into eight regions| we analyzed the importance of global warming and precipitation variations in each region respectively. Under the background of global warming| the trend of drought in north China still persists. The most probable region of drought in the next five years shows a tendendy of expansion in north China| especially in the direction to the south. Decreased precipitation is still the key factor in drought formation in most regions. However| in the north| northeast and cast-northwest China| global warming plays a bigger role in drought formation. 11366,2010,5,4,The Impact of the Little Ice Age on Coccolithophores in the Central Mediterranea Sea,The Little Ice Age (LIA) is the last episode of a series of Holocene climatic anomalies. There is still little knowledge on the response of the marine environment to the pronounced cooling of the LIA and to the transition towards the 20th century global warming. Here we present decadal-scale coccolithophore data from four short cores recovered from the central Mediterranean Sea (northern Sicily Channel and Tyrrhenian Sea)| which on the basis of (210)Pb activity span the last 200-350 years. The lowermost part of the record of one of the cores from the Sicily Channel| Station 407| which extends down to 1650 AD| is characterized by drastic changes in productivity. Specifically| below 1850 AD| the decrease in abundance of F. profunda and the increase of placoliths| suggest increased productivity. The chronology of this change is related to the main phase of the Little Ice Age| which might have impacted the hydrography of the southern coast of Sicily and promoted vertical mixing in the water column. The comparison with climatic forcings points out the importance of stronger and prolonged northerly winds| together with decreased solar irradiance. 10503,2010,3,3,The impacts of carbon tax and complementary policies on Chinese economy,Under the pressure of global warming| it is imperative for Chinese government to impose effective policy instruments to promote domestic energy saving and carbon emissions reduction. As one of the most important incentive-based policy instruments| carbon tax has sparked a lively controversy in China. This paper explores the impact of carbon tax on Chinese economy| as well as the cushion effects of the complementary policies| by constructing a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model. The model can describe the new equilibrium for each sequential independent period (e.g. one year) after carbon tax and the complementary policies are imposed| and thus describe the long-term impacts of the policies. The simulation results show that carbon tax is an effective policy tool because it can reduce carbon emissions with a little negative impact on economic growth; reducing indirect tax in the meantime of imposing carbon tax will help to reduce the negative impact of the tax on production and competitiveness: in addition| giving households subsidy in the meantime will help to stimulate household consumptions. Therefore| complementary policies used together with carbon tax will help to cushion the negative impacts of carbon tax on the economy. The dynamic CGE analysis shows the impact of carbon tax policy on the GDP is relatively small| but the reduction of carbon emission is relatively large. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved| 10693,2010,2,3,The impacts of rising CO(2) concentrations on Australian terrestrial species and ecosystems,The increasing atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide ([CO(2)]) contributes to global warming and the accompanying shifts in climate. However| [CO(2)] itself has the potential to impact on Australia's terrestrial biodiversity| due to its importance in the photosynthetic process| which underlies all terrestrial food webs. Here| we review our knowledge regarding the impacts of elevated [CO(2)] on native terrestrial species and ecosystems| and suggest key areas in which we have little information on this topic. Experimental information exists for 70 (or less than 0.05%) of Australia's native terrestrial plant and animal species. Of these| 68 are vascular plants. The growth of Australian woody species is more reliably increased by elevated [CO(2)] than it is in grasses. At the species level| the most overwhelming responses to increased [CO(2)] are a reduction in plant nitrogen concentration and an increase in the production of secondary metabolites. This is of particular concern for Australia's unique herbivorous and granivorous marsupials| for which no information is available. While many plant species also displayed increased growth rates at higher [CO(2)]| this was far from universal| indicating that changes in community structure and function are likely| leading to alterations of habitat quality. Future research should be directed to key knowledge gaps including the relationship between [CO(2)]| fire frequency and fire tolerance and the impacts of increasing [CO(2)] for Australia's iconic browsing mammals. We also know virtually nothing of the impacts of the increasing [CO(2)] on Australia's unique shrublands and semi-arid/arid rangelands. In conclusion| there is sufficient information available to be certain that the increasing [CO(2)] will affect Australia's native biodiversity. However| the information required to formulate predictions concerning the long-term future of almost all organisms is far in excess of that currently available. 692,2010,4,4,The implementation of international geospatial standards for earth and space sciences,The Earth and Space Sciences Informatics division of European Geosciences Union (EGU) and the Open Geospatial Consortium jointly organised a special event entitled: 'Implementation of international geospatial standards for earth and space sciences event' - at the EGU General Assembly meeting held in Vienna| April 2009. The event objectives included: (a) to discuss the integration of information systems from different geosciences disciplines; (b) to promote and discuss the present process to scale from specific and monolithic systems towards independent and modular enabling infrastructures - forming an earth system science (ESS) infrastructure; and (c) to show some of the latest advances in implementing open standards. This manuscript introduces the event motivations and describes the abstract and holistic framework| which can be used to situate the topics and the developments presented by the event speakers. This manuscript introduces important| and relatively new technologies to build a multi-disciplinary geosciences information system: the System of Systems approach and the Model Driven Approach. To achieve that| three important information infrastructure categories are recognised: (a) ESS information infrastructure; (b) geospatial information infrastructure; and (c) distributed information infrastructure. Digital Earth should support the discussed framework to accelerate information transfer from theoretical discussions to applications| in all fields related to global climate change| natural disaster prevention and response| new energy-source development| agricultural and food security| and urban planning and management. 397,2010,2,4,The importance of phylogeny to the study of phenological response to global climate change,Climate change has resulted in major changes in the phenology-i.e. the timing of seasonal activities| such as flowering and bird migration-of some species but not others. These differential responses have been shown to result in ecological mismatches that can have negative fitness consequences. However| the ways in which climate change has shaped changes in biodiversity within and across communities are not well understood. Here| we build on our previous results that established a link between plant species' phenological response to climate change and a phylogenetic bias in species' decline in the eastern United States. We extend a similar approach to plant and bird communities in the United States and the UK that further demonstrates that climate change has differentially impacted species based on their phylogenetic relatedness and shared phenological responses. In plants| phenological responses to climate change are often shared among closely related species (i.e. clades)| even between geographically disjunct communities. And in some cases| this has resulted in a phylogenetically biased pattern of non-native species success. In birds| the pattern of decline is phylogenetically biased but is not solely explained by phenological response| which suggests that other traits may better explain this pattern. These results illustrate the ways in which phylogenetic thinking can aid in making generalizations of practical importance and enhance efforts to predict species' responses to future climate change. 11545,2010,3,3,THE IMPORTANCE OF THE COPENHAGEN CONFERENCE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION,The article outlines the context in which the Copenhagen Conference took place at the end of 2009 in the field of environmental protection| as well as the main conclusions of the treaty concluded at this reunion against global warming Some of the failures of tins conference are also presented| as well as the disappointments of the representatives from the European Union or emerging countries regarding the establishment of the joint objectives for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or the lack of agreement among the EU Member States regarding the allotted carbon shares. However| the conference is a step into the right direction| because the parties involved in the reduction of the polluting emissions and the diminishing of the impact of climate change on the environmental degradation took part in the negotiations. 10840,2010,2,4,The Incidence of Norovirus-Associated Gastroenteritis Outbreaks in Victoria| Australia (2002-2007) and Their Relationship with Rainfall,The relationship between the incidence of norovirus-associated gastroenteritis outbreaks (NAGOs) in Victoria| Australia for the period 2002-2007 and rainfall was examined. Statistical analysis involving the correlation between time series indicated that there was a statistically significant (p < 0.05) correlation between monthly NAGO incidence and average monthly rainfall. There was a lag of an average of about three months between peak average rainfall and a NAGO epidemic. The findings thus indicate rainfall can influence NAGO incidence. In an era where there is concern about the potential effects of global warming on weather patterns| it should be borne in mind that future changes in NAGO incidence may reflect altered world weather patterns. 11148,2010,2,4,The influence of climate change on glacier geomorphosites: the case of two Italian glaciers (Miage Glacier| Forni Glacier) investigated through dendrochronology,Global warming is inducing huge changes in Alpine environment: glaciers defined as glacial geomorphosites are affected by severe shrinkage and new territories are progressively becoming suitable for study and evaluation. Landforms related to glacial erosion and deposition are visible at different scales and the consequences of climate change on vegetation (e.g.| faster colonisation of new areas) are also evident. Research on the evolution of glacier geomorphosites is significant in order to define their scientific attribute and characteristics as 'model of evolution'. This paper presents a proposal to investigate the 'natural' evolution of glacier geomorphosites using tree vegetation. The basic concept is that information can be gathered about past and present dynamics by analysing tree-growth on debris-covered glaciers and on their proglacial areas. Moreover| by investigating trees which colonise the glacial forefield of debris-free glaciers| the effects of climate change on tree colonisation can be analysed. New territories deriving from glacial shrinkage are revealed and may be integrated to the glacial geomorphosite defined. The use of dendrochronology for evaluating the evolution of glacial geomorphosites is proposed and discussed on the basis of past studies and of new data collected at two sample sites: the Miage Glacier (western Italian Alps) and the Forni Glacier (central Italian Alps). 10888,2010,2,4,The influence of natural stressors on the toxicity of nickel to Daphnia magna,Global warming has become a source of awareness regarding the potential deleterious effects of extreme abiotic factors (e.g.| temperature| dissolved oxygen (DO) levels) and also their influence on chemicals toxicity. In this work| we studied the combined effects of nickel and temperature (low and high levels) and nickel and low levels of DO to Daphnia magna| and concentration addition and independent action concepts as well as their deviations for synergism/antagonism| dose ratio and dose level dependency| were applied to survival and feeding rate data. Nickel single exposure showed an LC(50) value for 48 h of 7.36 mg l(-1) and an EC(50) value for feeding impairment at 2.41 mg l(-1). In the acute exposures to high and low temperatures| 50% of mortality was observed| respectively| at 30.7A degrees C and 4.2A degrees C whereas 50% reduction on the feeding activity was recorded at 22.6A degrees C and 16.0A degrees C. Relatively to low DO levels| a LC(50) value for 48 h of 0.5 mg l(-1) was obtained; feeding activity EC(50) value was 2 mg l(-1). On acute combined experiments| antagonism was observed for the combination of nickel and extreme temperatures| whereas a synergistic behaviour was observed in the combined exposure of nickel and low DO levels. At sublethal levels| nickel showed to be the main inducer of toxicity at high and low temperatures but not at low levels of dissolved oxygen. Toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics modelling studies should be made in the future to understand the toxicological pathways involved on complex combinations of stressors and to validate any conclusions. 655,2010,2,4,The influence of weather on birds wintering in the farmlands of eastern Poland,Counts of wintering birds were conducted in the extensively cultivated farmland of eastern Poland during three seasons. The number of wintering species of birds was negatively correlated with the depth of snow and positively related to the number of species recorded during the previous count. The total number of birds was negatively correlated with the depth of snow cover and positively correlated with the total number of birds recorded during the previous count. To a great extent it was the presence of snow cover that shaped the assemblages of birds wintering in farmland. During long-lasting snow| birds may leave this type of landscape. At wintering grounds influenced by conditions similar to those in eastern Poland the depth of snow may be of greater importance for birds than the presence of suitable feeding habitats because food is limited. As a consequence of the global climate change| changes in snow cover will occur and should increase the numbers and abundance of bird species wintering in eastern Poland. 11325,2010,2,4,The influence of weathering and organic matter on heavy metals lability in silicatic| Alpine soils,We investigated the effect of organic matter and weathering on the lability and solid phase speciation of heavy metals (Cd| Cr| Cu| Ni| Pb| Zn) in two contrasting subalpine regions in the Italian Alps. Cr| Ni and Cu could be linked to weathering. This was not the case for Pb. Since organic matter (OM) influences the solid phase speciation of heavy metals| the total organic C and N content| the C and N content of different density fractions of OM and also of the labile (oxidised by H(2)O(2)) and stable (H(2)O(2)-resistant) fractions were determined. Soil OM stocks were high and soils on north-facing slopes had more OM than the south-facing sites to which they were paired. Density measurements and the H(2)O(2) fractionation indicated that the higher OM content on north-facing sites was due to an accumulation of weakly degraded organic material. Due to higher weathering intensity on north-facing sites| the abundance of the EDTA-extractable heavy metals was higher than on south-facing sites. All EDTA-extractable heavy metals showed a good correlation to the water-soluble phenolic concentrations which indicates that the metals were probably translocated as metal-organic complexes. Pb and Cu correlate not only to the light (density <1 g/cm(3)) and labile| organic fraction but also to the heavy (density>2 g/cm(3)) and stable fraction. High-mountain ecosystems like the Alps are sensitive to changing environmental conditions such as global warming. A warmer climate and the more favourable conditions it brings for biological activity| especially at cooler sites| will probably lead in the short-to mid-term to an increased loss of accumulated| weakly degraded OM. As the Pb and Cu content is significantly related to the labile organic matter pools| the risk exists that an increase in OM mineralisation could affect the storage capacity and mobility of these metals in soils. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 648,2010,2,4,The interface between metabolic and stress signalling,It is becoming increasingly clear that stress and metabolic signalling networks interact and that this interaction is important in plant responses to herbivory| pathogen attack| drought| cold| heat and osmotic stresses including salinity. At the interface between these two major signalling systems are the hormone abscisic acid (ABA) and signalling factors including protein kinases and transcription factors. This briefing reviews links between ABA| stress and sugar signalling| focusing on the roles of sucrose non-fermenting-1-related protein kinases (SnRKs)| SnRK1-activating protein kinases (SnAKs)| calcium-dependent protein kinases (CDPKs) and ABA response element binding proteins (AREBPs| which are transcription factors). Links between stress and nitrogen / amino acid signalling are also described| including the roles of a protein kinase called general control non-derepressible (GCN)-2 in regulating protein synthesis through phosphorylation of the alpha-subunit of translation initiation factor-2 (eIF2 alpha) in response not only to decreases in amino acid levels but also to a range of stresses. Evidence of a link between sugar and amino acid signalling is explored| with nitrate reductase being a target for regulation by both SnRK1 and GCN2 through different mechanisms; possible links between SnRK1 and GCN2 via a pathway including the protein kinase target of rapamycin (TOR)-1 are described. The significance of these interactions to the concept of signalling networks as opposed to simple cascades and pathways| and the importance of the subject in the context of the predicted increase in severity and range of stresses that plants will have to withstand as a result of global climate change are discussed. 11196,2010,5,3,The latest Permian mass extinction in the Alborz Mountains (North Iran),The Elikah River section in the Alborz Mountains (North Iran) is a fossiliferous| continuous| marine section spanning the Permian-Triassic (P T) boundary interval. Sixty-eight taxa of brachiopods| foraminifers and algae have been collected bed-by-bed from the topmost 36 m of the Nesen Formation and the basal 2 m of the Elikah Formation| across the P-T boundary that is located in the basal metre of the latter formation. Forty-six of these taxa from 62 samples have been considered for statistical analyses to unravel the pattern of extinction. First| their range extensions have been determined| which should be added to the highest stratigraphic occurrence of each taxon to identify the extinction level within a certain confidence interval (95%). Then the pattern of the extinction has been analysed| plotting the stratigraphic abundance versus last occurrence below the extinction horizon. The resulting pattern is of a sudden extinction occurring 30 cm below the biostratigraphically defined base of the Triassic. The confidence interval (95%) for the mass extinction is 30 cm thick. As predicted by the 'Signor-Lipps effect'| brachiopod last occurrences underestimate the time of extinction| as their abundance is below 15%. Therefore| also in North Iran located at equatorial palaeolatitudes along the southern shore of the Palaeotethys Ocean| the pattern of the latest Permian mass extinction is abrupt as observed in South China| in peri-Gondwana and in the Southern Alps. One of the most plausible mechanisms of the latest Permian sudden mass extinction could have been the emissions of tholeiitic magmas (Siberian Traps)| which could have caused greenhouse gases emission into the atmosphere and thus global warming and ozone depletion| triggering the crisis (Svensen et al. 2008). Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 10592,2010,2,4,The Little Ice Age and the emergence of influenza A,Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of the haemagglutinin and neuraminidase proteins of influenza A virus demonstrates that their respective most recent common ancestors (MRCAs) both existed approximately 1000 years ago. Most of the bifurcations within the haemagglutinin and neuraminidase phylogenetic trees occurred within a time window that can be dated with 95% confidence to the years 1411-1932 of the Common Era (AD) for haemagglutinin and 1366-1874 AD for neuraminidase. This subtype diversification episode is temporally congruent with the "Little Ice Age"| a period of climatic cooling over the northern hemisphere. Furthermore. Bayesian probability mean ages for the bifurcation points within the haemagglutinin tree indicate two bursts of diversification from 1672 to 1715 AD and from 1825 to 1868 AD. The first of these follows in the wake of the coldest epoch in the Little Ice Age| and the second overlaps a later cooling episode. Since climate change is known to affect migration patterns in the reservoir host of influenza A. the aquatic wildfowl| and allopatric cladogenesis following population disruption is well supported in the evolutionary literature| a mechanism is proposed linking the Little Ice Age to influenza subtype diversification via ecological disruption of the wildfowl annual cycle. The suggestion that past climate change has impacted on influenza evolution implies that current global warming may cause a further burst of influenza subtype diversification with possible serious epidemiological consequences becoming apparent in the 22nd and 23rd centuries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 690,2010,4,4,The Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) for the CMAQ modeling system: updates through MCIPv3.4.1,The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system| a state-of-the-science regional air quality modeling system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency| is being used for a variety of environmental modeling problems including regulatory applications| air quality forecasting| evaluation of emissions control strategies| process-level research| and interactions of global climate change and regional air quality. The Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) is a vital piece of software within the CMAQ modeling system that serves to| as best as possible| maintain dynamic consistency between the meteorological model and the chemical transport model (CTM). MCIP acts as both a post-processor to the meteorological model and a pre-processor to the emissions and the CTM in the CMAQ modeling system. MCIP's functions are to ingest the meteorological model output fields in their native formats| perform horizontal and vertical coordinate transformations| diagnose additional atmospheric fields| define gridding parameters| and prepare the meteorological fields in a form required by the CMAQ modeling system. This paper provides an updated overview of MCIP| documenting the scientific changes that have been made since it was first released as part of the CMAQ modeling system in 1998. 11043,2010,2,4,The North American summer Arctic front during 1948-2007,Boundaries between air masses| frontal zones| are associated with vegetation boundaries. Using gridded climate reanalysis data| we analyse the air masses and frontal zones of North America in relation to the atmospheric circulation and vegetation productivity. The position of the July Arctic front varies significantly through the period 1948-2007| with a mean position similar to that found by Bryson (1966). The variability of the frontal position can be associated with changes in the general circulation; when the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are positive (negative)| the position of the July Arctic front is further north (south). There is also more spatial variability in the July Arctic frontal position in eastern versus western North America. The location of the frontal zone affects the vegetation through impacts on vegetative production; when the July Arctic front is north (south) of the mean position| the boreal forest and tundra vegetation is more (less) productive. Contrary to other studies that have identified changes in air mass frequency distributions and properties in several regions in response to global warming| we could not find clear evidence of significant changes in the position of the Arctic front in recent years. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 11413,2010,2,3,The Northeast Asia mountain glaciers in the near future by AOGCM scenarios,We studied contrasting glacier systems in continental (Orulgan| Suntar-Khayata and Chersky) mountain ranges| located in the region of the lowest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere at the boundary of Atlantic and Pacific influences - and maritime ones (Kamchatka Peninsula) - under Pacific influence. Our purpose is to present a simple projection method to assess the main parameters of these glacier regions under climate change. To achieve this| constructed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and ablation) based both on meteorological data for the 1950-1990s (baseline period) and ECHAM4 for 2049-2060 (projected period) are used| the latter - as a climatic scenario. The observations and scenarios were used to define the recent and future equilibrium line altitude and glacier terminus altitude level for each glacier system as well as areas and balance components. The altitudinal distributions of ice areas were determined for present and future| and they were used for prediction of glacier extent versus altitude in the system taking into account the correlation between the ELA and glacier-terminus level change. We tested two hypotheses of ice distribution versus altitude in mountain (valley) glaciers - "linear" and "non-linear". The results are estimates of the possible changes of the areas and morphological structure of northeastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance characteristics for 2049-2060. Glaciers in the southern parts of northeastern Siberia and those covering small ranges in Kamchatka will likely disappear under the ECHAM4 scenario; the best preservation of glaciers will be on the highest volcanic peaks of Kamchatka. Finally| we compare characteristics of the stability of continental and maritime glacier systems under global warming. 658,2010,2,2,The phenology mismatch hypothesis: are declines of migrant birds linked to uneven global climate change?,P>1. Migrant bird populations are declining and have been linked to anthropogenic climate change. The phenology mismatch hypothesis predicts that migrant birds| which experience a greater rate of warming in their breeding grounds compared to their wintering grounds| are more likely to be in decline| because their migration will occur later and they may then miss the early stages of the breeding season. Population trends will also be negatively correlated with distance| because the chances of phenology mismatch increase with number of staging sites. 2. Population trends from the Palaearctic (1990-2000) and Nearctic (1980-2006) were collated for 193 spatially separate migrant bird populations| along with temperature trends for the wintering and breeding areas. An index of phenology mismatch was calculated as the difference between wintering and breeding temperature trends. 3. In the Nearctic| phenology mismatch was correlated with population declines as predicted| but in the Palaearctic| distance was more important. This suggests that differential global climate change may be responsible for contributing to some migrant species' declines| but its effects may be more important in the Nearctic. 4. Differences in geography and so average migration distance| migrant species composition and history of anthropogenic change in the two areas may account for the differences in the strength of the importance of phenology mismatch on migrant declines in the Nearctic and Palaearctic. 381,2010,4,2,The physical concept of climate forcing,Since the beginning of the debate on global climate change| scientists| economists| and policy makers alike have been using 'climate forcing' as a convenient measure for evaluating climate change. Researchers who run complex computer models conceived the theoretical concept of climate forcing in the late 1960s (Charney Report| 1979). This overview describes the development and basics of the physical framework| as radiative energy imbalance in the atmosphere| inflicted by a perturbation in the climate system. Such disturbances and forced changes can alter processes in the climate system| which enhance or dampen the initial effects and thus introduce positive or negative feedback loops. With increased understanding of the nature of the climate system| this basic concept has become more complex and hence more difficult to interpret. The identification of additional anthropogenic disturbances| the interdependence of individual forcings| and difficulties to account for spatial and temporal variabilities of disturbances are only few issues that complicate the overall picture. Although numerous scientific studies exist that evaluate climate forcings by allocating watts per square meter values to individual forcings (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports| 2010)| the actual number of publications that interpret the physical meaning of the climate-forcing concept remains surprisingly small. Here| this overview focuses on explaining to an interdisciplinary audience the physical interpretation of the concept| including its limitations. It also examines new developments| such as polluter-based emission scenarios| energy budget approaches| and climate impacts other than temperature change. (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. WIREs Clim Change 2010 1 786-802 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.75 11169,2010,2,4,The physiology of climate change: how potentials for acclimatization and genetic adaptation will determine 'winners' and 'losers',Physiological studies can help predict effects of climate change through determining which species currently live closest to their upper thermal tolerance limits| which physiological systems set these limits| and how species differ in acclimatization capacities for modifying their thermal tolerances. Reductionist studies at the molecular level can contribute to this analysis by revealing how much change in sequence is needed to adapt proteins to warmer temperatures - thus providing insights into potential rates of adaptive evolution - and determining how the contents of genomes - protein-coding genes and gene regulatory mechanisms influence capacities for adapting to acute and long-term increases in temperature. Studies of congeneric invertebrates from thermally stressful rocky intertidal habitats have shown that warm-adapted congeners are most susceptible to local extinctions because their acute upper thermal limits (LT(50) values) lie near current thermal maxima and their abilities to increase thermal tolerance through acclimation are limited. Collapse of cardiac function may underlie acute and longer-term thermal limits. Local extinctions from heat death may be offset by in-migration of genetically warm-adapted conspecifics from mid-latitude 'hot spots'| where midday low tides in summer select for heat tolerance. A single amino acid replacement is sufficient to adapt a protein to a new thermal range. More challenging to adaptive evolution are lesions in genomes of stenotherms like Antarctic marine ectotherms| which have lost protein-coding genes and gene regulatory mechanisms needed for coping with rising temperature. These extreme stenotherms| along with warm-adapted eurytherms living near their thermal limits| may be the major 'losers' from climate change. 10432,2010,4,4,The Position of the Mid latitude Storm Track and Eddy-Driven Westerlies in Aquaplanet AGCMs,The sensitivity of the midlatitude storm track and eddy-driven wind to the sea surface temperature (SST) boundary forcing is studied over a wide range of perturbations using both simple and comprehensive general circulation models over aquaplanet lower boundary conditions. Under the single-jet circulation regime similar to the conditions of the present climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter or the Southern Hemisphere summer| the eddy-driven jet shifts monotonically poleward with both the global mean and the equator-to-pole gradient of the SST. The eddy-driven jet can have a reverse relationship to the gradient if it is well separated from the subtropical jet and Hadley cell boundary in a double-jet circulation regime. A simple scaling is put forward to interpret the simulated sensitivity of the storm-track/eddy-driven westerly wind position within the single-jet regime in both models. The rationale for the scaling is based on the notion that the wave activity flux can propagate horizontally away from the source region| resulting in a broader distribution of eddy potential vorticity (PV) flux in the upper troposphere than that of the flux in the opposite direction in the lower troposphere. As a consequence| the position of the maximum of the eddy-driven westerlies tends to be controlled by the profile of the relatively sharp-peaked low-level PV flux| which is dominated by the eddy heat flux component of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux. Thus| the position of the eddy-driven surface westerlies may be inferred from the vertical EP flux coming out of the lower troposphere. The vertical EP flux can be parameterized by a measure of baroclinicity| whose latitudinal variations show a linear relationship with the meridional displacement of the eddy-driven westerlies and the storm track. This relationship still holds well within the single-jet regime| even when only the variation of static stability is taken into consideration in estimating the baroclinicity (the temperature gradient component of which is fixed). To the extent that the static stability is deterministically constrained by and hence can be predicted from the given SST conditions through a moist scaling for the midlatitude stratification| one may| given SST perturbations| predict which way the storm track and eddy-driven wind should shift with respect to a chosen reference climate state. The resultant anomaly-wise scaling turns out to be valid for both the idealized and comprehensive models| regardless of the details in the model physics. By corollary| it can be argued that the poleward shift of storm track found in the global warming simulations by fully coupled climate models may be attributed| at least partially| to the increase in the subtropical and midlatitude static stability with global warming. 476,2010,2,4,The potential impact of global warming on the efficacy of field margins sown for the conservation of bumble-bees,Climate change is expected to drive species extinct by reducing their survival| reproduction and habitat. Less well appreciated is the possibility that climate change could cause extinction by changing the ecological interactions between species. If ecologists| land managers and policy makers are to manage farmland biodiversity sustainably under global climate change| they need to understand the ways in which species interact with each other as this will affect the way they respond to climate change. Here| we consider the ability of nectar flower mixtures used in field margins to provide sufficient forage for bumble-bees under future climate change. We simulated the effect of global warming on the network of plant-pollinator interactions in two types of field margin: a four-species pollen and nectar mix and a six-species wildflower mix. While periods without flowering resources and periods with no food were rare| curtailment of the field season was very common for the bumble-bees in both mixtures. The effect of this| however| could be ameliorated by adding extra species at the start and end of the flowering season. The plant species that could be used to future-proof margins against global warming are discussed. 383,2010,3,2,The potential of fission nuclear power in resolving global climate change under the constraints of nuclear fuel resources and once-through fuel cycles,Nuclear fission is receiving new attention as a developed source of carbon-free energy. A much larger number of nuclear reactors would be needed for a major impact on carbon emission. The crucial question is whether it can be done without increasing the risk of nuclear proliferation. Specifically| can a larger nuclear share in world energy production| well above the present 6%| be achieved in the next few decades without adding the proliferation-sensitive technologies of reprocessing spent fuel and recycling plutonium to the problems of the unavoidable use of enrichment technology? The answer depends on the available uranium resources. We first looked for the maximum possible nuclear buildup in the 2025-2065 period under the constraints of the estimated uranium resources and the use of once-through nuclear fuel technology. Our results show that nuclear energy without reprocessing could reduce carbon emission by 39.6% of the total reduction needed to bring the WEO 2009 Reference Scenario prediction of total GHG emissions in 2065 to the level of the WEO 450 Scenario limiting global temperature increase to 2 degrees C. The less demanding strategy of the nuclear replacement of all non-CCS coal power plants retiring during the 2025-2065 period would reduce emission by 26.1%. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 396,2010,2,4,The proteomic response of the mussel congeners Mytilus galloprovincialis and M-trossulus to acute heat stress: implications for thermal tolerance limits and metabolic costs of thermal stress,The Mediterranean blue mussel| Mytilus galloprovincialis| an invasive species in California| has displaced the more heat-sensitive native congener| Mytilus trossulus| from its former southern range| possibly due to climate change. By comparing the response of their proteomes to acute heat stress we sought to identify responses common to both species as well as differences that account for greater heat tolerance in the invasive. Mussels were acclimated to 13 degrees C for four weeks and exposed to acute heat stress (24 degrees C| 28 degrees C and 32 degrees C) for 1 h and returned to 13 degrees C to recover for 24. h. Using two-dimensional gel electrophoresis and tandem mass spectrometry we identified 47 and 61 distinct proteins that changed abundance in M. galloprovincialis and M. trossulus| respectively. The onset temperatures of greater abundance of some members of the heat shock protein (Hsp) 70 and small Hsp families were lower in M. trossulus. The abundance of proteasome subunits was lower in M. galloprovincialis but greater in M. trossulus in response to heat. Levels of several NADH-metabolizing proteins| possibly linked to the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS)| were lower at 32 degrees C in the cold-adapted M. trossulus whereas proteins generating NADPH| important in ROS defense| were higher in both species. The abundance of oxidative stress proteins was lower at 32 degrees C in M. trossulus only| indicating that its ability to combat heat-induced oxidative stress is limited to lower temperatures. Levels of NAD-dependent deacetylase (sirtuin 5)| which are correlated with lifespan| were lower in M. trossulus in response to heat stress. In summary| the expression patterns of proteins involved in molecular chaperoning| proteolysis| energy metabolism| oxidative damage| cytoskeleton and deacetylation revealed a common loci of heat stress in both mussels but also showed a lower sensitivity to high-temperature damage in the warm-adapted M. galloprovincialis| which is consistent with its expanding range in warmer waters. 10445,2010,2,4,The Relationship between Body and Ambient Temperature and Corneal Temperature,PURPOSE. Exposure to elevated ambient temperatures has been mentioned as a risk factor for common eye diseases| primarily presbyopia and cataract. The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship among ambient| cornea| and body core temperature. METHODS. The relation between corneal temperature and ambient temperature was examined in 11 human volunteers. Furthermore| corneal temperature was measured using a thermal camera during elevation of body core temperature in three human volunteers and four rats. RESULTS. A linear relationship between corneal temperature and body temperature was found in the rat. For humans there was an initial linear increase in corneal temperature with increasing body temperature| but corneal temperature seemed to plateau at 36.5 degrees C to 37.0 degrees C despite a continued increase of body core temperature. A linear relationship between ambient and corneal temperature was found in humans but with a less steep slope than that between corneal and body core temperature. CONCLUSIONS. Corneal temperature is estimated to reach the maximum of 36.5 degrees C to 37.0 degrees C at ambient temperatures between 32.0 degrees C and 34.5 degrees C. If there is a causal relationship between elevated eye temperature| cataract| and presbyopia| the incidence of these eye diseases is predicted to increase with global warming. Importantly| the strong association between corneal temperature and body core temperature indicates that frequent infections could also be considered a risk factor for age-related lens disorders. (Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2010; 51: 6593-6597) DOI:10.1167/iovs.10-5659 357,2010,2,4,The relationship between fog| floods| groundwater and tree growth along the lower Kuiseb River in the hyperarid Namib,At our study site in the western half of the Namib Desert rainfall is extremely low averaging between 0 and 12 mm a year. Fog events are| however| more frequent| occurring on average 60-200 days per annum Research has demonstrated that where there are frequent fog events trees have adapted to intercept and utilise the moisture from these events In hyperarid environments such as at our study site trees are confined to the banks of ephemeral rivers. Here we determine the extent to which these trees are able to utilise both deep groundwater as well as fog water The results of our model show that none of the trees in this study are able to utilise fog water even though fog events may contain considerable amounts of water. Rather| all of the trees are reliant on a seasonally fluctuating combination of groundwater| shallow soil water and deep soil water. These water sources directly depend on Kuiseb aquifer recharge resulting from flood water infiltration If predictions for increased water abstraction and global climate change are realized and water levels of the aquifer decline substantially then the vegetation structure along ephemeral rivers such as the Kuiseb will be seriously threatened. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved 11018,2010,3,3,The response of nematodes to deep-sea CO(2) sequestration: A quantile regression approach,One proposed approach to ameliorate the effects of global warming is sequestration of the greenhouse gas CO(2) in the deep sea. To evaluate the environmental impact of this approach| we exposed the sediment-dwelling fauna at the mouth of the Monterey Submarine Canyon (3262 m) and a site on the nearby continental rise (3607 m) to CO(2)-rich water. We measured meiobenthic nematode population and community metrics after similar to 30-day exposures along a distance gradient from the CO(2) source and with sediment depth to infer the patterns of mortality. We also compared the nematode response with that of harpacticoid copepods. Nematode abundance| average sediment depth| tail-group composition| and length: width ratio did not vary with distance from the CO(2) source. However| quantile regression showed that nematode length and diameter increased in close proximity to the CO(2) source in both experiments. Further| the effects of CO(2) exposure and sediment depth (nematodes became more slender at one site| but larger at the other| with increasing depth in the sediment) varied with body size. For example| the response of the longest nematodes differed from those of average length. We propose that nematode body length and diameter increases were induced by lethal exposure to CO(2)-rich water and that nematodes experienced a high rate of mortality in both experiments. In contrast| copepods experienced high mortality rates in only one experiment suggesting that CO(2) sequestration effects are taxon specific. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11399,2010,2,4,The response of organic matter mineralisation to nutrient and substrate additions in sub-arctic soils,Global warming in the Arctic may alter decomposition rates in Arctic soils and therefore nutrient availability. In addition| changes in the length of the growing season may increase plant productivity and the rate of labile C input below ground. We carried out an experiment in which inorganic nutrients (NH(4)NO(3) and NaPO(4)) and organic substrates (glucose and glycine) were added to soils sampled from across the mountain birch forest-tundra heath ecotone in northern Sweden (organic and mineral soils from the forest. and organic soil only from the heath). Carbon dioxide production was then monitored continuously over the following 19 days. Neither inorganic N nor P additions substantially affected soil respiration rates when added separately. However| combined N and P additions stimulated microbial activity| with the response being greatest in the birch forest mineral soil (57% increase in CO(2) production compared with 26% in the heath soil and 8% in the birch forest organic soil). Therefore| mineralisation rates in these soils may be stimulated if the overall nutrient availability to microbes increases in response to global change| but N deposition alone is unlikely to enhance decomposition. Adding either| or both| glucose and glycine increased microbial respiration. Isotopic separation indicated that the mineralisation of native soil organic matter (SOM) was stimulated by glucose addition in the heath soil and the forest mineral soil| but not in the forest organic soil. These positive 'priming' effects were lost following N addition in forest mineral soil| and following both N and P additions in the heath soil. In order to meet enhanced microbial nutrient demand| increased inputs of labile C from plants could stimulate the mineralisation of SOM| with the soil C stocks in the tundra-heath potentially most vulnerable. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11348,2010,4,5,The role of cosmic rays in the Earth's atmospheric processes,In this paper| we have provided an overview of cosmic ray effects on terrestrial processes such as electrical properties| global electric circuit| lightning| cloud formation| cloud coverage| atmospheric temperature| space weather phenomena| climate| etc. It is suggested that cosmic rays control short-term and long-term variations in climate. There are many basic phenomena which need further study and require new and long-term data set. Some of these have been pointed out. 11115,2010,2,4,The role of mean ocean salinity in climate,We describe numerical simulations designed to elucidate the role of mean ocean salinity in climate. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model| we study a 100-year sensitivity experiment in which the global-mean salinity is approximately doubled from its present observed value| by adding 35 psu everywhere in the ocean. The Salinity increase produces a rapid global-mean seasurface warming of 0.8 degrees C within a few years| caused by reduced vertical mixing associated with changes in cabbeling. The warming is followed by a gradual global-mean sea-surface cooling of 0.4 degrees C within a few decades| caused by an increase in the vertical (downward) component of the isopycnal diffusive heat flux. We find no evidence of impacts on the variability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) or El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The mean strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning is reduced by 20% and the North Atlantic Deep Water penetrates less deeply. Nevertheless| our results dispute claims that higher salinities for the world ocean have profound consequences for the thermohaline circulation. In additional experiments with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide| we find that the amplitude and spatial pattern of the global warming signal are modified in the hypersaline ocean. In particular| the equilibrated global-mean sea-surface temperature increase caused by doubling carbon dioxide is reduced by 10%. We infer the existence ofa non-linear interaction between the climate responses to modified carbon dioxide and modified salinity. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10958,2010,3,4,The role of shrub (Potentilla fruticosa) on ecosystem CO(2) fluxes in an alpine shrub meadow,Aims Recent studies have shown that alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau act as significant CO(2) sinks. On the plateau| alpine shrub meadow is one of typical grassland ecosystems. The major alpine shrub on the plateau is Potentilla fruticosa L. (Rosaceae)| which is distributed widely from 3 200 to 4 000 m. Shrub species play an important role on carbon sequestration in grassland ecosystems. In addition| alpine shrubs are sensitive to climate change such as global warming. Considering global warming| the biomass and productivity of P. fruticosa will increase on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Thus| understanding the carbon dynamics in alpine shrub meadow and the role of shrubs around the upper distribution limit at present is essential to predict the change in carbon sequestration on the plateau. However| the role of shrubs on the carbon dynamics in alpine shrub meadow remains unclear. The objectives of the present study were to evaluate the magnitude of CO(2) exchange of P. fruticosa shrub patches around the upper distribution limit and to elucidate the role of P. fruticosa on ecosystem CO(2) fluxes in an alpine meadow. Methods We used the static acrylic chamber technique to measure and estimate the net ecosystem productivity (NEP)| ecosystem respiration (Re)| and gross primary productivity (GPP) of P. fruticosa shrub patches at three elevations around the species' upper distribution limit. Ecosystem CO(2) fluxes and environmental factors were measured from 17 to 20 July 2008 at 3 400| 3 600| and 3 800 m a.s.l. We examined the maximum GPP at infinite light (GPP(max)) and maximum R(e) (R(emax)) during the experimental time at each elevation in relation to aboveground biomass and environmental factors| including air and soil temperature| and soil water content. Important Findings Patches of P. fruticosa around the species' upper distribution limit absorbed CO(2)| at least during the daytime. Maximum NEP at infinite light (NEP(max)) and GPP(max) of shrub patches in the alpine meadow varied among the three elevations| with the highest values at 3 400 m and the lowest at 3 800 m. GPP(max) was positively correlated with the green biomass of P. fruticosa more strongly than with total green biomass| suggesting that P. fruticosa is the major contributor to CO(2) uptake in the alpine shrub meadow. Air temperature influenced the potential GPP at the shrub-patch scale. R(max) was correlated with aboveground biomass and R(emax) normalized by aboveground biomass was influenced by soil water content. Potentilla fruticosa height (biomass) and frequency increased clearly as elevation decreased| which promotes the large-scale spatial variation of carbon uptake and the strength of the carbon sink at lower elevations. 10806,2010,4,4,The scientific consensus of climate change revisited,This paper first reviews previous work undertaken to assess the level of scientific consensus concerning climate change| concluding that studies of scientific consensus concerning climate change have tended to measure different things. Three dimensions of consensus are determined: manifestation| attribution and legitimation. Consensus concerning these dimensions are explored in detail using a time series of data from surveys of climate scientists. In most cases| little difference is discerned between those who have participated in the IPCC process and those who have not. Consensus| however| in both groups does not amount to unanimity. Results also suggest rather than a single group proclaiming the IPCC does not represent consensus| there are now two groups| one claiming the IPCC makes overestimations (a group previously labeled skeptics| deniers| etc.) and a relatively new formation of a group (many of whom have participated in the IPCC process) proclaiming that IPCC tends to underestimate some climate related phenomena. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 385,2010,2,4,The Spatial Factor| Rather than Elevated CO(2)| Controls the Soil Bacterial Community in a Temperate Forest Ecosystem,The global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration is expected to increase continuously over the next century. However| little is known about the responses of soil bacterial communities to elevated CO(2) in terrestrial ecosystems. This study aimed to partition the relative influences of CO(2)| nitrogen (N)| and the spatial factor (different sampling plots) on soil bacterial communities at the free-air CO(2) enrichment research site in Duke Forest| North Carolina| by two independent techniques: an entirely sequencing-based approach and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. Multivariate regression tree analysis demonstrated that the spatial factor could explain more than 70% of the variation in soil bacterial diversity and 20% of the variation in community structure| while CO(2) or N treatment explains less than 3% of the variation. For the effects of soil environmental heterogeneity| the diversity estimates were distinguished mainly by the total soil N and C/N ratio. Bacterial diversity estimates were positively correlated with total soil N and negatively correlated with C/N ratio. There was no correlation between the overall bacterial community structures and the soil properties investigated. This study contributes to the information about the effects of elevated CO(2) and soil fertility on soil bacterial communities and the environmental factors shaping the distribution patterns of bacterial community diversity and structure in temperate forest soils. 10891,2010,2,4,The temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition: seasonal temperature variations turn a sharp short-term temperature response into a more moderate annually averaged response,The temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition is a critically important determinant of any long-term changes of soil-carbon stocks in response to global warming. Because of practical experimental constraints| most knowledge of this temperature dependence is based on short-term studies. These studies generally show a strong temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition. At the same time| many modelling studies| especially global studies| or studies that investigate the effects of climate change| use longer time steps| such as annual. It is investigated here to what extent the use of short-term temperature dependencies are appropriate| or how they may need to be modified| for application over longer time steps. The work indicated that for global applications| it is critically important to explicitly consider seasonal temperature variations. Across the globe| observed annual mean temperature and the annual temperature range are negatively correlated. Inclusion of this correlation means that the strong short-term temperature dependence becomes much weaker when data are expressed as annual averages for the temperatures experienced across the globe. For short-term responses| the temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition is greater at low than high temperature and deviates strongly from an assumption of a constant Q(10) across temperature. For annually averaged values| this pattern also weakens| and temperature dependencies change only slightly with temperature. Using short time steps for simulations leads to the expectation of more positive changes (sequestration) in soil carbon especially for cold regions of the globe than would be predicted for simulations at annual time steps without explicit consideration of seasonal temperature variations. These considerations help to reconcile some of the apparent differences in temperature dependencies obtained by different workers using different approaches. 11374,2010,2,4,The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human health in Shanghai,With global warming forecast to continue into the foreseeable future| heat waves are very likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. In urban regions| these future heat waves will be exacerbated by the urban heat island effect| and will have the potential to negatively influence the health and welfare of urban residents. In order to investigate the health effects of the urban heat island (UHI) in Shanghai| China| 30 years of meteorological records (1975-2004) were examined for 11 first- and second-order weather stations in and around Shanghai. Additionally| automatic weather observation data recorded in recent years as well as daily all-cause summer mortality counts in 11 urban| suburban| and exurban regions (1998-2004) in Shanghai have been used. The results show that different sites (city center or surroundings) have experienced different degrees of warming as a result of increasing urbanization. In turn| this has resulted in a more extensive urban heat island effect| causing additional hot days and heat waves in urban regions compared to rural locales. An examination of summer mortality rates in and around Shanghai yields heightened heat-related mortality in urban regions| and we conclude that the UHI is directly responsible| acting to worsen the adverse health effects from exposure to extreme thermal conditions. 10957,2010,3,4,The use of life cycle assessment for the comparison of biowaste composting at home and full scale,Environmental impacts and gaseous emissions associated to home and industrial composting of the source-separated organic fraction of municipal solid waste have been evaluated using the environmental tool of life cycle assessment (LCA). Experimental data of both scenarios were experimentally collected. The functional unit used was one ton of organic waste. Ammonia| methane and nitrous oxide released from home composting (HC) were more than five times higher than those of industrial composting (IC) but the latter involved within 2 and 53 times more consumption or generation of transport| energy| water| infrastructures| waste and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) emissions than HC. Therefore| results indicated that IC was more impacting than HC for four of the impact categories considered (abiotic depletion| ozone layer depletion| photochemical oxidation and cumulative energy demand) and less impacting for the other three (acidification| eutrophication and global warming). Production of composting bin and gaseous emissions are the main responsible for the HC impacts| whereas for IC the main contributions come from collection and transportation of organic waste| electricity consumption| dumped waste and VOCs emission. These results suggest that HC may be an interesting alternative or complement to IC in low density areas of population. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 584,2010,4,4,The Utilization of Physisorption Analyzer for Studying the Hygroscopic Properties of Atmospheric Relevant Particles,The hygroscopic behavior of atmospheric aerosols has a significant effect on the global climate change. In this study a physisorption analyzer was used to measure the water adsorption capacity of Al(2)O(3)| NaCl| NH(4)NO(3)| and (NH(4))(2)SO(4) particles at 273.6 K. Qualitative and quantitative information about water adsorption on these particles was obtained with changing the temperature and/or relative humidity (RH). Uptake of water on Al(2)O(3) showed a type-II BET adsorption isotherm with the monolayer formed at similar to 18% relative humidity (RH). The hygroscopic properties of NaCl| (NH(4))(2)SO(4)| and NH(4)NO(3)| including the deliquescence relative humidities (DRH)| the temperature dependence of the DRH for NH(4)NO(3)| and the growth factors of NaCl and (NH(4))(2)SO(4) were determined. All these results were in good agreement with the results obtained by other methods and/or theoretical prediction with a deviation less than 2%. For NaCl| the water adsorption amount increase rate exhibits three stages (<30% RH| similar to 30%-65% RH| and >65% RH) in the predeliquescence process and monolayer thin film water was formed at about 30% RH. It demonstrated that this instrument was practicable for studying the hygroscopic behavior of both soluble and insoluble but wettable atmospheric nonviolate aerosol particles. 559,2010,2,3,The vulnerability of wind power to climate change in Brazil,The availability and reliability of wind power depend a great deal on current and future climate conditions| which may vary in light of possible global climate change (GCC). Long-term energy planning| however| does not normally take possible future GCC into consideration| which may turn out to be a risky exercise. In the case of Brazil| the untapped wind power potential is known to be impressive| provided that climate conditions remain the same over time. The focus of this study is to analyze some possible impacts of GCC on the wind power potential of Brazil| by simulating wind conditions associated with the IPCC A2 and B2 Scenarios. Results based on the HadCM3 general circulation model and the analysis of the country's wind database indicate that the wind power potential in Brazil would not be jeopardized in the future due to possible new climate conditions. On the contrary| improved wind conditions are expected| particularly in the Northeast coast of the country. Therefore| investments in wind power generation can be an interesting way to expand renewable energy production in Brazil. However| given the large uncertainties associated with GCC models and scenarios| the findings of this paper should be viewed as a possibility rather than as a projection. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 638,2010,3,3,The water needs for LDV transportation in the United States,Concern over increased demand for petroleum| reliable fuel supply| and global climate change has resulted in the US government passing new Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards and a Renewable Fuels Standard. Consequently| the fuel mix for light duty vehicle (LDV) travel in the United States will change over the coming years. This paper explores the embodied water consumption and withdrawal associated with two projections for future fuel use in the US LDV sector. This analysis encompasses conventional and unconventional fossil fuels| corn ethanol| cellulosic ethanol| soy biodiesel| electricity| and hydrogen. The existing mandate in the US to blend ethanol into gasoline had effectively committed 3300 billion liters of irrigation water in 2005 (approximately 2.4% of US 2005 fresh water consumption) for producing fuel for LDVs. With current irrigation practices| fuel processing| and electricity generation| it is estimated that by 2030| approximately 14|000 billion liters of water per year will be consumed and 23|000-27|000 billion liters withdrawn to produce fuels used in LDVs. Irrigation for biofuels dominates projected water usage for LDV travel| but other fuels (coal to liquids| oil shale| and electricity via plug-in hybrid vehicles) will also contribute appreciably to future water consumption and. withdrawal| especially on a regional basis. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11066,2010,2,4,The western Mediterranean climate: how will it respond to global warming?,The paper discusses the newly produced temperature and precipitation series from instrumental observations in the Western Mediterranean (WM) area| dating back to 1654. The two series had a continuous swing and unstable coupling passing from correlation to anti-correlation. Only after 1950 are they permanently anti-correlated with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. It is not clear how long this coupling will persist. The analysis of the correlation between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the WM temperature anomalies and their trends shows a certain variability from 1850 to 1950; later a strong coupling between NH and WM. Results suggest that the WM climate is approaching a turning point that might locally oppose the adverse effects of Global Warming. 647,2010,2,4,The Wet and Dry Spells across India during 1951-2007,Characteristics of wet spells (WSs) and intervening dry spells (DSs) are extremely useful for water-related sectors. The information takes on greater significance in the wake of global climate change and climate-change scenario projections. The features of 40 parameters of the rainfall time distribution as well as their extremes have been studied for two wet and dry spells for 19 subregions across India using gridded daily rainfall available on 1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude spatial resolution for the period 1951-2007. In a low-frequency-mode| intra-annual rainfall variation| WS (DS) is identified as a "continuous period with daily rainfall equal to or greater than (less than) daily mean rainfall (DMR) of climatological monsoon period over the area of interest.'' The DMR shows significant spatial variation from 2.6 mm day(-1) over the extreme southeast peninsula (ESEP) to 20.2 mm day(-1) over the southern-central west coast (SCWC). Climatologically| the number of WSs (DSs) decreases from 11 (10) over the extreme south peninsula to 4 (3) over northwestern India as a result of a decrease in tropical and oceanic influences. The total duration of WSs (DSs) decreases from 101 (173) to 45 (29) days| and the duration of individual WS(DS) from 12 (18) to 7 (11) days following similar spatial patterns. Broadly| the total rainfall of wet and dry spells| and rainfall amount and rainfall intensity of actual and extreme wet and dry spells| are high over orographic regions and low over the peninsula| Indo-Gangetic plains| and northwest dry province. The rainfall due to WSs (DSs) contributes similar to 68% (similar to 17%) to the respective annual total. The start of the first wet spell is earlier (19 March) over ESEP and later (22 June) over northwestern India| and the end of the last wet spell occurs in reverse| that is| earlier (12 September) from northwestern India and later (16 December) from ESEP. In recent years/decades| actual and extreme WSs are slightly shorter and their rainfall intensity higher over a majority of the subregions| whereas actual and extreme DSs are slightly (not significantly) longer and their rainfall intensity weaker. There is a tendency for the first WS to start approximately six days earlier across the country and the last WS to end approximately two days earlier| giving rise to longer duration of rainfall activities by approximately four days. However| a spatially coherent| robust| long-term trend (1951-2007) is not seen in any of the 40 WS/DS parameters examined in the present study. 11193,2010,3,3,The zero discounting and maximin optimal paths in a simple model of global warming,Following Stollery (1998)| we extend the Solow-Dasgupta-Heal model to analyze the effects of global warming. The rise in temperature is caused by the use of fossil resources so that the temperature level can be linked to the remaining stock of these resources. The rise in temperature affects both productivity and utility. We characterize optimal solutions for the maximin and zero discounting cases and present closed-form solutions for the case where the production and utility functions are Cobb-Douglas| and the temperature level is an exponential function of the remaining stock of resources. We show that a greater weight on temperature in intratemporal preferences and a larger intertemporal elasticity of substitution both lead to postponing resource use. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10877,2010,3,4,Theoretical Estimation of Incinerability of Halons and Hydrochlorofluorocarbons,Theoretical calculations are given for design of thermal destruction conditions for multi-halogenated organic compounds. Arrhenius parameters and equations were used to calculate relative incinerability of three bromofluorocarbons (halon 1301| halon 1211| and halon 2402) and two hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22 and HCFC-123) that are not in the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency Thermal Stability-Based Ranking of Hazardous Waste Incinerability. Halons and HCFCs evaluated in this report have Incinerability Indices that rank below Class I. Thus| they may be disposed of in incinerators that have proven destruction and removal efficiency > 99.99% for at least one Class I principal organic hazardous constituent. A discussion of thermal destruction mechanisms of these compounds is given. Thermal destruction may result in products of incomplete combustion that exhibit ozone-depleting or global-warming potential. Additional theoretical and possibly experimental evaluations will be required to address these issues. 10809,2010,4,4,Thermal analysis scheme aimed at better understanding of the Earth's climate changes due to the alternating irradiation,Methodological scheme of thermal analysis is used for portraying the Earth environmental research and climate changes showing particularly the history| effect of atmosphere reflection (albedo) and absorption (so called greenhouse effect included). The net behavior of the Earth as a black body is reviewed. The most influential on climate changes is alteration of the geometry of the Earth trajectory and the irradiative power of the Sun (as a standard thermo-analytical pair of the sample and radiator). Thermodynamic basis of water vapor impacts is pointed out| the absorption spectra of atmosphere emphasized and temperature gradients indicated. The historical course of the Earth temperature and CO(2) concentration is put in analogy with the method of gas desorption analysis| which supports the view that the variation of CO(2) concentration recorded in the past may not be alone blamed for temperature changes. 650,2010,2,4,Thermal plasticity in young snakes: how will climate change affect the thermoregulatory tactics of ectotherms?,Climate change will result in some areas becoming warmer and others cooler| and will amplify the magnitude of year-to-year thermal variation in many areas. How will such changes affect animals that rely on ambient thermal heterogeneity to behaviourally regulate their body temperatures? To explore this question| we raised 43 captive-born tiger snakes Notechis scutatus in enclosures that provided cold (19-22 degrees C)| intermediate (19-26 degrees C) or hot (19-37 degrees C) thermal gradients. The snakes adjusted their diel timing of thermoregulatory behaviour so effectively that when tested 14 months later| body temperatures (mean and maximum)| locomotor speeds and anti-predator behaviours did not differ among treatment groups. Thus| the young snakes modified their behaviour to compensate for restricted thermal opportunities. Then| we suddenly shifted ambient conditions to mimic year-to-year variation. In contrast to the earlier plasticity| snakes failed to adjust to this change| e. g. snakes raised at cooler treatments but then shifted to hot conditions showed a higher mean body temperature for at least two months after the onset of the new thermal regime. Hence| thermal conditions experienced early in life influenced subsequent thermoregulatory tactics; the mean selected temperature of a snake depended more upon its prior raising conditions than upon its current thermoregulatory opportunities. Behavioural plasticity thus allows snakes to adjust to suboptimal thermal conditions but this plasticity is limited. The major thermoregulatory challenge from global climate change may not be the shift in mean values (to which our young snakes adjusted) but the increased year-to-year variation (with which our snakes proved less able to deal). 10799,2010,2,4,Thermal plasticity of photosynthesis: the role of acclimation in forest responses to a warming climate,The increasing air temperatures central to climate change predictions have the potential to alter forest ecosystem function and structure by exceeding temperatures optimal for carbon gain. Such changes are projected to threaten survival of sensitive species| leading to local extinctions| range migrations| and altered forest composition. This study investigated photosynthetic sensitivity to temperature and the potential for acclimation in relation to the climatic provenance of five species of deciduous trees| Liquidambar styraciflua| Quercus rubra| Quercus falcata| Betula alleghaniensis| and Populus grandidentata. Open-top chambers supplied three levels of warming (+0| +2| and +4 degrees C above ambient) over 3 years| tracking natural temperature variability. Optimal temperature for CO(2) assimilation was strongly correlated with daytime temperature in all treatments| but assimilation rates at those optima were comparable. Adjustment of thermal optima was confirmed in all species| whether temperatures varied with season or treatment| and regardless of climate in the species' range or provenance of the plant material. Temperature optima from 17 degrees to 34 degrees were observed. Across species| acclimation potentials varied from 0.55 degrees C to 1.07 degrees C per degree change in daytime temperature. Responses to the temperature manipulation were not different from the seasonal acclimation observed in mature indigenous trees| suggesting that photosynthetic responses should not be modeled using static temperature functions| but should incorporate an adjustment to account for acclimation. The high degree of homeostasis observed indicates that direct impacts of climatic warming on forest productivity| species survival| and range limits may be less than predicted by existing models. 11544,2010,2,4,Thermal sensitivity of metabolic enzymes in subarctic and temperate freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionoida),Temperature has a major impact oil the physiological processes of freshwater invertebrates. Despite the endangered status of many freshwater Mussel species and the potential effect of global warming on North America's northern aquatic habitats| thermal sensitivity of the metabolic apparatus of freshwater bivalves has received little attention. By examining the thermal sensitivity of 10 key metabolic enzymes and in situ growth rates of latitudinally separated populations (temperate and subarctic) of two closely-related Pyganodon species from northeastern North America| we provide the first insights into thermal sensitivity of key enzymes of energy and reactive oxygen species metabolism in relation to habitat localization and growth performance. The subarctic population of Pyganodon grandis displayed higher in situ growth rates than the temperate population of Pyganodon fragilis. The subarctic population of P. grandis had a lower mitochondrial capacity as expressed by citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase but displayed similar electron transport system (ETS) and higher isocitrate dehydrogenase capacities. Our results suggest that higher growth performance of the subarctic population of P. grandis is not associated with higher aerobic capacity. The high thermal sensitivity of mitochondrial enzymes in subarctic population of P. grandis might rather reflect enhanced stenothermy. The higher electron transport system/cytochrome c oxidase ratio for the subarctic P. grandis species than P. fragilis might affect mitochondrial regulation or reactive oxygen species production. Antioxidant enzymes displayed lower Q(10)s suggesting thermal independence of antioxidant capacity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 605,2010,2,4,THERMAL TOLERANCE OF JUVENILE FRESHWATER MUSSELS (UNIONIDAE) UNDER THE ADDED STRESS OF COPPER,Freshwater mussels fulfill an essential role in aquatic communities| but are also one of the most sensitive and rapidly declining faunal groups in North America. Rising water temperatures| caused by global climate change or industrial discharges| can further challenge impaired unionid communities| but thermal stress is almost certainly not the only stressor affecting freshwater mussels. Metals| such as copper (Cu)| are a common source of toxicant exposure in aquatic environments. The toxic effects of Cu on the early life stages of freshwater mussels have been well studied| and freshwater mussels are more sensitive to Cu than most aquatic organisms. The purpose of the present study was to determine the effect of a sublethal copper concentration on the upper thermal tolerance of three species| Lampsilis siliquoidea| Potamilus alatus| and Ligumia recta| of juvenile freshwater mussels in 48- and 96-h tests. Thermal tolerance was determined over a range of experimental temperatures (20-42 degrees C) at three acclimation temperatures (17| 22| and 27 degrees C). Median lethal temperatures (LT50s) were calculated in the absence and presence of Cu| and at 48 h ranged from 34.6 to 44.4 degrees C (mean 37.7 degrees C) without Cu| and from 33.8 to 38.9 degrees C (mean 35.8 degrees C) with Cu. The LT50s at 96 h ranged from 32.5 to 35.6 degrees C (mean 34.5 degrees C) without Cu and from 33.0 to 35.4 degrees C (mean 34.2 degrees C) with Cu. Potamilus alatus had a significantly lower 48 h LT50 with Cu than without Cu at the 22 degrees C acclimation temperature; there were no other significant differences in LT50s attributed to Cu. Survival trends showed limited evidence of interactive effects between copper and temperature for all three species| suggesting the combined stress of elevated temperatures and copper exposure to freshwater mussels should be further explored. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2010;29:691-699. (C) 2009 SETAC 10714,2010,2,4,Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming,The mechanisms of changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle projected by 15 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 and used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report are analyzed by computing differences between 2046 and 2065 and 1961 and 2000. The contributions to changes in precipitation minus evaporation| P-E| caused thermodynamically by changes in specific humidity| dynamically by changes in circulation| and by changes in moisture transports by transient eddies are evaluated. The thermodynamic and dynamic contributions are further separated into advective and divergent components. The nonthermodynamic contributions are then related to changes in the mean and transient circulation. The projected change in P-E involves an intensification of the existing pattern of P-E with wet areas [the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and mid-to high latitudes] getting wetter and arid and semiarid regions of the subtropics getting drier. In addition| the subtropical dry zones expand poleward. The accentuation of the twentieth-century pattern of P-E is in part explained by increases in specific humidity via both advection and divergence terms. Weakening of the tropical divergent circulation partially opposes the thermodynamic contribution by creating a tendency to decreased P-E in the ITCZ and to increased P-E in the descending branches of the Walker and Hadley cells. The changing mean circulation also causes decreased P 2 E on the poleward flanks of the subtropics because the descending branch of the Hadley Cell expands and the midlatitude meridional circulation cell shifts poleward. Subtropical drying and poleward moistening are also contributed to by an increase in poleward moisture transport by transient eddies. The thermodynamic contribution to changing P-E| arising from increased specific humidity| is almost entirely accounted for by atmospheric warming under fixed relative humidity. 11378,2010,3,4,Thermodynamic Consideration on the Absorption Properties of Carbon Dioxide to Basic Oxide,Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key technology for greatly reducing CO| emissions in the long term| and therefore a low-energy CCS process needs to be developed. This study focused on the solid absorption process using basic oxide| and thermodynamically examined the carbonation abilities of various basic oxides and compounds containing CaO| BaO or Li(2)O. The CO(2) absorption and desorption behavior of these materials containing alkali earth metal oxides was investigated by measuring the weight change over a wide range of temperatures from room temperature to 1 100 degrees C in CO(2) atmosphere. It was experimentally confirmed that the partial pressure of CO(2) equilibrated with both Ba(2)TiO(4) and BaCO(3) was higher than that equilibrated with both BaO and BaCO(3). The formation of compound increased the equilibrium partial pressure of CO(2) and lowered the starting temperature of CO(2) desorption. 10599,2010,3,2,Thermodynamic study of combining chemical looping combustion and combined reforming of propane,Existing energy generation technologies emit CO(2) gas and are posing a serious problem of global warming and climate change. The thermodynamic feasibility of a new process scheme combining chemical looping combustion (CLC) and combined reforming (CR) of propane (LPG) is studied in this paper. The study of CLC of propane with CaSO(4) as oxygen carrier shows thermodynamic feasibility in temperature range (400-782.95 degrees C) at 1 bar pressure. The CO(2) generated in the CLC can be used for combined reforming of propane in an autothermal way within the temperature range (400-1000 degrees C) at 1 bar pressure to generate syngas of ratio 3.0 (above 600 degrees C) which is extremely desirable for petrochemical manufacture. The process scheme generates (a) huge thermal energy in CLC that can be used for various processes| (b) pure N(2) and syngas rich streams can be used for petrochemical manufacture and (c) takes care of the expensive CO(2) separation from flue gas stream and CO(2) sequestration. The thermoneutral temperature (TNP) of 702.12 degrees C yielding maximum syngas of 5.98 mol per mole propane fed| of syngas ratio 1.73 with negligible methane and carbon formation was identified as the best condition for the CR reactor operation. The process can be used for different fuels and oxygen carriers. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11525,2010,4,3,Thermodynamics of climate change: generalized sensitivities,Using a recent theoretical approach| we study how global warming impacts the thermodynamics of the climate system by performing experiments with a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. The intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle| the Carnot efficiency| the material entropy production| and the degree of irreversibility of the system change monotonically with the CO(2) concentration. Moreover| these quantities feature an approximately linear behaviour with respect to the logarithm of the CO(2) concentration in a relatively wide range. These generalized sensitivities suggest that the climate becomes less efficient| more irreversible| and features higher entropy production as it becomes warmer| with changes in the latent heat fluxes playing a predominant role. These results may be of help for explaining recent findings obtained with state of the art climate models regarding how increases in CO(2) concentration impact the vertical stratification of the tropical and extratropical atmosphere and the position of the storm tracks. 11281,2010,3,3,Thermoelectric power generation from biomass cook stoves,The use of biomass cook stoves is widespread in the rural communities of developing countries. It is important to improve the efficiency of these stoves in order to reduce the global warming contribution. An improved biomass fired stove has been developed in our laboratory and a prototype has been built. The combustion chamber is designed to achieve the almost complete combustion of wood thus increasing the efficiency and decreasing indoor air pollution. An additional development| introduced in this paper| involves the use of a thermoelectric (TE) module in order to generate electricity to power the fan and give light. The air blowing through the stove increases the air/fuel ratio to achieve a complete combustion. In the first part| the paper presents the results from an experimental benchtest using commercial TE modules (Bismuth Telluride). The evaluation of the conversion efficiency is allowed at various temperature ranges. Then| the feasibility of adding commercial TE modules to the biomass cook stove prototype is investigated searching the best position of the modules. Lastly| a TE power generator experimental set up is presented showing that a 6 watts ready to use electrical production is possible with the biomass cook stove. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10769,2010,2,4,THERMOSENSITIVE PERIOD FOR SEX DETERMINATION IN THE TUATARA,Understanding the timing of the thermosensitive period| when the gonad is irreversibly committed to either a testis or ovary| in reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination| is important for evaluation of effects of global warming. We investigated the thermosensitive period of the Tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) using laboratory switching experiments| where incubation temperatures above 22 degrees C produce male hatchlings. Sex is determined by 28% of the full incubation period at 23 degrees C| the male-producing temperature (week 7 of an average 21 week incubation period)| and 39% of the full incubation period at 20 degrees C| the female-producing temperature (week 11 of an average 31 week incubation period). The thermosensitive period for the tuatara corresponds broadly to that of other reptiles| at the beginning of the middle third of development| although clearly temperatures prior to this period may also influence sex determination. Refining knowledge of the timing of the thermosensitive period is invaluable for interpreting the effects of nest temperatures on sex determination of hatchling tuatara| as well as predicting sex ratios under climate change scenarios. 10487,2010,5,4,Three thousand years of extreme rainfall events recorded in stalagmites from Spring Valley Caverns| Minnesota,Annual layer analysis in two stalagmites collected from Spring Valley Caverns| southeastern Minnesota| reveals hydrological response of the cave to extreme rainfall events in the Midwest| USA. Cave-flooding events are identified within the two samples by the presence of detrital layers composed of clay sized particles. Comparison with instrumental records of precipitation demonstrates a strong correlation between these cave-flood events and extreme rainfall observed in the Upper Mississippi Valley. A simple model is developed to assess the nature of rainfall capable of flooding the cave. The model is first calibrated to the last 50-yr (1950-1998 A.D.) instrumental record of daily precipitation data for the town of Spring Valley and verified with the first 50 yr of record from 1900 to 1949 AD. Frequency analysis shows that these extreme flood events have increased from the last half of the nineteenth century. Comparison with other paleohydrological records shows increased occurrence of extreme rain events during periods of higher moisture availability. Our study implies that increased moisture availability in the Midwestern region| due to rise in temperature from global warming could lead to an increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10935,2010,2,4,Timberline change detection using topographic map and satellite imagery,High altitude ecosystems| defined by low temperatures| are known to react sensitively to climate warming. This study reports vegetation ingression and land cover changes in an area of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve in Central Himalaya using satellite imagery of 1986| 1999 and 2004. The topographic map of 1960 was taken as benchmark. The SRTM DEM data was used to extract information on elevation| slope and the aspect. The March 1986 satellite imagery showed snow| glaciers and scree as dominant land cover types with a few dense vegetation patches. The 1999 imagery showed marginal increase in vegetation cover while 2004 imagery revealed >20% increase. in the vegetation cover and drastic reduction in snow cover| thereby showing vegetation ingression in erstwhile snow/ice areas. The elevation contours| overlaid on the 2004 imagery| showed the timberline at 4300 in| the alpine scrub line at 4900 m and the tundra vegetation line at 5300 m above m.s.l.. The topographic map of 1960 showed scrub| scattered trees and timberline between 3900 and 4000 m above m.s.l.. The study indicates rapid recession of glaciers and snow cover and ingression by vegetation probably due to global warming related rise in temperature. 11287,2010,2,4,Timing and duration of European larch growing season along altitudinal gradients in the Swiss Alps,The 2007 European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) growing season was monitored along two elevational transects in the Lotschental valley in the Swiss Alps. Phenological observations and weekly microcore sampling of 28 larch trees were conducted between April and October 2007 at seven study sites regularly spaced from 1350 to 2150m a.s.l. on northwest- and southeast-facing slopes. The developmental stages of nearly 75|000 individual cells assessed on 1200 thin sections were used to investigate the links between the trees' thermal regimes and growth phases including the beginning and ending of cell enlargement| wall thickening and maturation of the stem wood. Needles appeared similar to 3-4 weeks earlier than stem growth. The duration of ring formation lasted from mid-May to the end of October| with the length of the growing season decreasing along elevation from 137 to 10 1 days. The onset of the different growing seasons changed by 3-4 days per 100 m elevation; the ending of the growing season| however| appeared minimally related to altitude. If associated with the monitored altitudinal lapse rate of -0.5 degrees C per 100 m| these results translate into a lengthening of the growing season by similar to 7 days per degree Celsius. This study provides new data on the timing and duration of basic growth processes and contributes to quantification of the impacts of global warming on tree growth and productivity. 10440,2010,2,4,Timing of eclosion affects diapause development| fat body consumption and longevity in Osmia lignaria| a univoltine| adult-wintering solitary bee,Most Insects from temperate areas enter diapause ahead of winter Species diapausing in a feeding stage and accumulating metabolic reserves during permissive pre-wintering conditions are expected to enter diapause shortly before the onset of winter In contrast species diapausing in a non-feeding stage are expected to lower their metabolism as soon as possible to avoid excessive consumption of metabolic reserves The solitary bee Osmia lignaria winters as a non-feeding adult within its cocoon but previous studies show important weight losses and increased winter mortality in populations pre-wintered for extended periods We measured respiration rates to assess diapause initiation and maintenance during pre-wintering and tested whether timing of adult eclosion affected fitness by measuring fat body depletion winter mortality and post-winter longevity We worked with different cohorts of a population reared under natural conditions and manipulated pre-wintering duration in a population reared under artificial conditions In agreement with our expectation O lignaria lower their metabolic rates within a few days of adult eclosion but nonetheless suffer strong weight loss during pre-wintering Early developing individuals suffer greater weight loss and fat body depletion and have short post-winter longevity Although we found no differences in winter mortality among treatments our results indicate that Increased mortality may occur in years with late winter arrivals We discuss fundamental ecophysiological differences between adult and prepupal diapause within the Megachilidae and hypothesize that species wintering as adults will be more negatively affected by a situation of extended summers under a scenario of global warming Published by Elsevier Ltd 11385,2010,3,3,Titanium-Catalyzed C-F Activation of Fluoroalkenes,The thermodynamic and kinetic inertness of carbon–fluorine bonds has proven to be a mixed blessing to mankind. Ideally suited for practical applications| organofluorine compounds have found their way into everyday life in chemically stable polymers like polytetrafluoroethene (PTFE) and in modern pharmaceutical chemistry| where fluorine substitution has beneficial effects on the physicochemical and physiological properties of organic molecules.1 However| halofluorocarbons have also found their way into the upper atmosphere| where their long-time persistence has had a deleterious effect on the ozone layer and has contributed to global warming.2Consequently| there is a long-standing interest in selectively activating the inert carbon–fluorine bond| although the number of catalytically active systems for such applications is still very sparse.3| 4 Most of these catalysts are based on late transition metals| but recently they have been competing with first-row transition metals as well as with Lewis acidic main-group species.
10826,2010,2,4,Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts,Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However| the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data| the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions| although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index| we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically| tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and| in some regions under some circumstances| possibly more so. 11105,2010,2,4,Topography and spatial arrangement of reef-building corals on the fringing reefs of North Jamaica may influence their response to disturbance from bleaching,Knowledge of factors that are important in reef resilience helps us understand how reefs react following major environmental disturbances such as hurricanes and bleaching. Here we test factors that might have influenced Jamaican reef resilience to| and subsequent recovery from| the 2005 bleaching event| and which might help inform management policy for reefs in the future: reef rugosity and contact of corals with macroalgae. In addition| we test in the field| on Dairy Bull reef| whether aggregated Porites astreoides colonies exhibit enhanced growth when exposed to superior competition from Acopora palmata| as has been found by experiment with the Indo-Pacific corals Porites lobata and the superior competitor Porites rus [Idjadi| J.A.| Karlson| R.H.| 2007. Spatial arrangement of competitors influences coexistence of reef-building corals. Ecology 88| 2449-2454]. There were significant linear relationships between rugosity and the increase in smallest size classes for Sidastrea siderea| Colpophyllia notans| P. astreoides and Agaricia species| and between rugosity and cover of the branching coral Acropora cervicornis. Linear extension rates of A. cervicornis and radial growth rates of A astreoides were significantly lower (p < 0.025: F > 6) when in contact with macroalgae. Aggregated colonies of P. astreoides in contact with one another| one of which was in contact with the faster growing competitor A. palmata showed significantly greater growth rates than with just two aggregated P. astreoides colonies alone. These findings suggest that three dimensional topography and complexity is important for reef resilience and viability in the face of environmental stressors such as bleaching. Our findings also support the idea that aggregated spatial arrangements of corals can influence the outcome of interspecific competition and promote species coexistence| important in times of reef recovery after disturbance. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11518,2010,4,3,Total aerosol effect: radiative forcing or radiative flux perturbation?,Uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcings| especially those associated with clouds| contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of precipitation formation. In former assessments of aerosol radiative forcings| these effects have not been quantified. Also| with global aerosol-climate models simulating interactively aerosols and cloud microphysical properties| a quantification of the aerosol forcings in the traditional way is difficult to define properly. Here we argue that fast feedbacks should be included because they act quickly compared with the time scale of global warming. We show that for different forcing agents (aerosols and greenhouse gases) the radiative forcings as traditionally defined agree rather well with estimates from a method| here referred to as radiative flux perturbations (RFP)| that takes these fast feedbacks and interactions into account. Based on our results| we recommend RFP as a valid option to compare different forcing agents| and to compare the effects of particular forcing agents in different models. 11264,2010,2,4,Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: modeling climate impact on dengue transmission,Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans in tropical lands. As an efficient vaccine is not yet available| the only means to prevent epidemics is to control mosquito populations. These are influenced by human behavior and climatic conditions and thus| need constant effort and are very expansive. Examples of succeeded prevention are rare because of the continuous reintroduction of virus or vector from outside| or growing resistance of mosquito populations to insecticides. Climate variability and global warming are other factors which may favour epidemics of dengue. During a pilot study in Claris EC project| a model for the transmission of dengue was built| to serve as a tool for estimating the risk of epidemic transmission and eventually forecasting the risk under climatic change scenarios. An ultimate objective would be to use the model as an early warning system with meteorological forecasts as input| thus allowing better decision making and prevention. 11098,2010,3,2,Trade-off between productivity enhancement and global warming potential of rice and wheat in India,Increased use of irrigation and nitrogen (N) in rice and wheat would increase productivity. It would also enhance the emission of greenhouse gases from soil causing global warming and climate change. This study quantified the trade-offs between increased production with N fertilizer and irrigation application and the global warming potential (GWP) in the major rice and wheat growing regions of India. The InfoCrop model was used to simulate yield and GWP of rice and wheat for five regions in the country for two climatic scenarios i.e.| current (1990-1999) and future (2050)| two irrigation practices i.e.| supply-driven irrigation (SDI) and demand-driven irrigation (DDI)| and 10 levels of N and organic manure. Rice and wheat productivity of India can be increased from their current productivity of 3.26 and 2.73 Mg ha(-1) to 5.66 and 6.15 Mg ha(-1)| respectively with increased irrigation and N use. But this would increase the GWP by 27 and 40%| respectively. In spite of the increased GWP the carbon efficiency ratio (CER) would increase from the current values of 0.67 and 0.85 to 1.06 and 1.75 in rice and wheat| respectively. Thus there is a 'win-win' situation in terms of increased CER for increasing productivity. These situations need to be identified to harness the benefit with more rational management practices including efficient use of irrigation and N| the major drivers for yield and GWP. 441,2010,3,4,Trade-offs between ecosystem services: Water and carbon in a biodiversity hotspot,Carbon sequestration by afforestation can help mitigate global climate change but may have adverse environmental and economic impacts in some regions. For example| economic incentives for carbon sequestration may encourage the expansion of Pinus radiata timber plantations in the Fynbos biome of South Africa| with negative consequences for water supply and biodiversity. I built a dynamic ecological-economic model to investigate whether afforestation of a Fynbos catchment with Pinus radiata is economically viable when the potential benefits of carbon sequestration and timber production are balanced against the losses to water supply. I found that afforestation appears viable to the forestry industry under current water tariffs and current carbon accounting legislation| but would appear unviable if the forestry industry were to pay the true cost of water used by the plantations. I also found that under various plausible future economic scenarios. afforestation can be associated with either large future economic gains or losses| suggesting a need for future analyses based on branches of decision theory that deal with severe uncertainty. I conclude with a general recommendation that climate legislation should be explicit about the conditions under which afforestation for carbon sequestration of native vegetation is a legitimate climate mitigation strategy. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11047,2010,2,4,Trait plasticity in species interactions: a driving force of community dynamics,Evolutionary community ecology is an emerging field of study that includes evolutionary principles such as individual trait variation and plasticity of traits to provide a more mechanistic insight as to how species diversity is maintained and community processes are shaped across time and space. In this review we explore phenotypic plasticity in functional traits and its consequences at the community level. We argue that resource requirement and resource uptake are plastic traits that can alter fundamental and realised niches of species in the community if environmental conditions change. We conceptually add to niche models by including phenotypic plasticity in traits involved in resource allocation under stress. Two qualitative predictions that we derive are: (1) plasticity in resource requirement induced by availability of resources enlarges the fundamental niche of species and causes a reduction of vacant niches for other species and (2) plasticity in the proportional resource uptake results in expansion of the realized niche| causing a reduction in the possibility for coexistence with other species. We illustrate these predictions with data on the competitive impact of invasive species. Furthermore| we review the quickly increasing number of empirical studies on evolutionary community ecology and demonstrate the impact of phenotypic plasticity on community composition. Among others| we give examples that show that differences in the level of phenotypic plasticity can disrupt species interactions when environmental conditions change| due to effects on realized niches. Finally| we indicate several promising directions for future phenotypic plasticity research in a community context. We need an integrative| trait-based approach that has its roots in community and evolutionary ecology in order to face fast changing environmental conditions such as global warming and urbanization that pose ecological as well as evolutionary challenges. 10571,2010,2,4,Traits responsible for variation in pollination and seed set among six rice cultivars grown in a miniature paddy field with free air at a hot| humid spot in China,Severe rice sterility induced by high temperatures occurred in the Yangtze Valley of China in the summer of 2003; the cause for an increase in its occurrence is believed to be global warming. Proposed traits for maintenance of high fertility in rice under conditions of high temperature were: (1) long dehiscence formed at the basal part of the anther at the time of the flowering; (2) early time flowering; and (3) decreased panicle temperature. The objective of this study was to clarify whether or not these three possible traits are effective on the seed set of rice under free-air hot condition in this region. These traits were examined in a miniature paddy field in 2005-2006 with six cultivars that had shown variation in seed set rates in the Yangtze Valley in 2003. The effects of the cultivars on these three traits were significant as revealed by the analysis of variance. Percentage seed set was significantly correlated with the length of basal dehiscence (r = 0.682| n = 12| p = 0.015) across cultivars under normal high temperature| but not with the other traits. Analysis of covariance showed that year (fixed variable)| length of basal dehiscence (covariant variable) and daily maximum temperature (covariant variable) explained 82.1% of variance in seed set rate across the cultivars. Moreover| the percentage of sufficiently pollinated florets was correlated with both the length of basal dehiscence and seed set percentage. From these results| we conclude that long basal dehiscence is an effective trait in maintaining seed set under high atmospheric temperatures in the paddy fields in this region and that the long basal dehiscence enables high seed set rate through the stable pollination. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10492,2010,5,3,Transient Middle Eocene Atmospheric CO(2) and Temperature Variations,The long-term warmth of the Eocene (similar to 56 to 34 million years ago) is commonly associated with elevated partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO(2)). However| a direct relationship between the two has not been established for short-term climate perturbations. We reconstructed changes in both pCO(2) and temperature over an episode of transient global warming called the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO; similar to 40 million years ago). Organic molecular paleothermometry indicates a warming of southwest Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) by 3 to 6 degrees C. Reconstructions of pCO(2) indicate a concomitant increase by a factor of 2 to 3. The marked consistency between SST and pCO(2) trends during the MECO suggests that elevated pCO(2) played a major role in global warming during the MECO. 10448,2010,3,2,Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Land transport,Emissions from land transport| and from road transport in particular| have significant impacts on the atmosphere and on climate change. This assessment gives an overview of past| present and future emissions from land transport| of their impacts on the atmospheric composition and air quality| on human health and climate change and on options for mitigation. In the past vehicle exhaust emission control has successfully reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides| carbon monoxide| volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. This contributed to improved air quality and reduced health impacts in industrialised countries. In developing countries however| pollutant emissions have been growing strongly| adversely affecting many populations. In addition| ozone and particulate matter change the radiative balance and hence contribute to global warming on shorter time scales. Latest knowledge on the magnitude of land transport's impact on global warming is reviewed here. In the future| road transport's emissions of these pollutants are expected to stagnate and then decrease globally. This will then help to improve the air quality notably in developing countries. On the contrary| emissions of carbon dioxide and of halocarbons from mobile air conditioners have been globally increasing and are further expected to grow. Consequently| road transport's impact on climate is gaining in importance. The expected efficiency improvements of vehicles and the introduction of biofuels will not be sufficient to offset the expected strong growth in both| passenger and freight transportation. Technical measures could offer a significant reduction potential| but strong interventions would be needed as markets do not initiate the necessary changes. Further reductions would need a resolute expansion of low-carbon fuels| a tripling of vehicle fuel efficiency and a stagnation in absolute transport volumes. Land transport will remain a key sector in climate change mitigation during the next decades. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10447,2010,3,3,Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Metrics,The transport sector emits a wide variety of gases and aerosols| with distinctly different characteristics which influence climate directly and indirectly via chemical and physical processes. Tools that allow these emissions to be placed on some kind of common scale in terms of their impact on climate have a number of possible uses such as: in agreements and emission trading schemes; when considering potential trade-offs between changes in emissions resulting from technological or operational developments; and/or for comparing the impact of different environmental impacts of transport activities. Many of the non-CO(2) emissions from the transport sector are short-lived substances| not currently covered by the Kyoto Protocol. There are formidable difficulties in developing metrics and these are particularly acute for such short-lived species. One difficulty concerns the choice of an appropriate structure for the metric (which may depend on| for example| the design of any climate policy it is intended to serve) and the associated value judgements on the appropriate time periods to consider; these choices affect the perception of the relative importance of short- and long-lived species. A second difficulty is the quantification of input parameters (due to underlying uncertainty in atmospheric processes). In addition| for some transport-related emissions| the values of metrics (unlike the gases included in the Kyoto Protocol) depend on where and when the emissions are introduced into the atmosphere - both the regional distribution and| for aircraft| the distribution as a function of altitude| are important. In this assessment of such metrics| we present Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) as these have traditionally been used in the implementation of climate policy. We also present Global Temperature Change Potentials (GTPs) as an alternative metric| as this| or a similar metric may be more appropriate for use in some circumstances. We use radiative forcings and lifetimes from the literature to derive GWPs and GTPs for the main transport-related emissions| and discuss the uncertainties in these estimates. We find large variations in metric (GWP and GTP) values for NO(x)| mainly due to the dependence on location of emissions but also because of inter-model differences and differences in experimental design. For aerosols we give only global-mean values due to an inconsistent picture amongst available studies regarding regional dependence. The uncertainty in the presented metric values reflects the current state of understanding; the ranking of the various components with respect to our confidence in the given metric values is also given. While the focus is mostly on metrics for comparing the climate impact of emissions| many of the issues are equally relevant for stratospheric ozone depletion metrics| which are also discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10675,2010,4,4,Tree-ring-based May-July mean temperature history for Luliang Mountains| China| since 1836,As a consequence of recent global warming and its social impact| regional climate change is attracting an increasing amount of attention from scientists. A May-July temperature proxy extending back to 1836 was developed from tree-ring width of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) found in the middle Luliang Mountains| northern China. Correlations with climatic data from six nearby meteorological stations range from -0.58 to -0.65| indicating a strong response of tree-ring index to May-July mean temperatures| which were subsequently reconstructed. The reconstruction captures 45% (F=38.474| P < 0.001) of the regional variance in the instrumental data over the calibration period 1955-2003. Reconstructed warm and cold periods were verified by additional temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring data from northern China. In addition| the reconstruction was significantly correlated with May-July mean temperatures from 13 other meteorological stations in northern China| suggesting that our reconstruction is also representative of north-central China. The warming trend during the second half of the 20th century is seen in the reconstruction| but only the 1994-2002 mean temperature seems unprecedented over the whole reconstructed period. 458,2010,2,4,Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall time series in the Mediterranean area,Precipitation trend analysis| on different spatial and temporal scales| has been of great concern during the past century because of the attention given to global climate change by the scientific community. According to some recent studies| the Italian territory has been suffering a precipitation decrease| especially in the last 50 years| and the southern areas seem to be more affected. The aim of the present study is to analyse rainfall time series over a wide time interval and a wide area| detecting potential trends and assessing their significance. For this purpose| 211 gauged stations| mainly located within the Campania region| southern Italy| have been analysed for the period 1918-1999. An accurate database has been set up through a data quality and time series homogeneity process. Statistical analysis of the database highlight that (1) the trend appears predominantly negative| both at the annual and seasonal scale| except for the summer period when it appears to be positive; (2) over the whole reference period| positive and negative trends are significant respectively for 9 and 27% of total stations and (3) over the last 30 years| a negative trend is instead significant for 97% of the total stations. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 10904,2010,4,4,Trend discrepancies among three best track data sets of western North Pacific tropical cyclones,The hot debate over the influence of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific over the past several decades is partly due to the diversity of TC data sets used in recent publications. This study investigates differences of track| intensity| frequency| and the associated long-term trends for those TCs that were simultaneously recorded by the best track data sets of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)| the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo| and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI). Though the differences in TC tracks among these data sets are negligibly small| the JTWC data set tends to classify TCs of category 2-3 as category 4-5| leading to an upward trend in the annual frequency of category 4-5 TCs and the annual accumulated power dissipation index| as reported by Webster et al. (2005) and Emanuel (2005). This trend and potential destructiveness over the period 1977-2007 are found only with the JTWC data set| but downward trends are apparent in the RSMC and STI data sets. It is concluded that the different algorithms used in determining TC intensity may cause the trend discrepancies of TC activity in the western North Pacific. 10439,2010,2,4,Trends in Global Warming and Evolution of Nucleoproteins from Influenza A Viruses since 1918,P>Global warming affects not only the environment where we live| but also all living species to different degree| including influenza A virus. We recently conducted several studies on the possible impact of global warming on the protein families of influenza A virus. More studies are needed in order to have a full picture of the impact of global warming on living organisms| especially its effect on viruses. In this study| we correlate trends in global warming with evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus and then analyse the trends with respect to northern/southern hemispheres| virus subtypes and sampling species. The results suggest that global warming may have an impact on the evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus. 11396,2010,4,4,Trends in rainfall and extreme temperatures in northwestern Mexico,The impact of global warming across northwestern Mexico is difficult to discern because long-term climatic data series are lacking| and this semi-arid region is subject to strong seasonal variability. Using data between 1922 and 2004 from 55 weather stations located in the State of Sonora| the Baja California Peninsula| and some stations in the United States near the Mexican border| we analyzed trends observed for weather variables. The magnitude and statistical significance of trends were determined| using the least squares regression procedure. Microregional series were delimited after applying varimax rotated empirical orthogonal functional analysis to the weather series. The limits between the 9 microregions were defined by considering a rotated factor loading >= 0.6. Series with significant trends were correlated with 5 different climatic indices: Pacific Decadal Oscillation| Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation| Southern Oscillation Index| North Atlantic Oscillation Index| and values of 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies. Results show that northwestern Mexico has high meteorological heterogeneity| as observed in spatial and seasonal variability of precipitation and temperature. Different trends were found across the region. Correlation analyses indicate that trends in several variables are associated with inter-decadal changes in the Pacific and the Atlantic| as well as with variations of the 700 hPa atmospheric flow patterns| changes in sea surface temperatures| penetration of extratropical fronts| and| for the State of Baja California Sur| higher incidence of tropical cyclones. 11434,2010,4,4,Trends of the thermal growing season in China| 1951-2007,Observed 20th century changes ill the length of the growing season (GS) across the Northern Hemisphere have been linked to increasing temperatures| associated with global warming. Past studies of GS changes in China have largely been based on phenological observations and satellite data| and little attention has been paid to changes in starting and ending dates of GS. Here we examine changes in the thermal GS over China from 1951 to 2007 based on observed daily surface air temperature. Using five indices| trends of three GS parameters| start| end and length| were determined at 114 high-quality stations over China. Our results show large spatial and temporal differences in the GS parameters in China| where the most prominent changes have Occurred in northern China relative to southern China. On average| from 1951 to 2007 the GS has been extended by 2.3 days/decade in northern China where most of these changes is due to an earlier onset of the GS in spring (-1.7 days/decade). In southern China| there is an average increase of GS by 1.3 days/decade with 0.6 days/decade earlier onsets in spring. Furthermore| most stations showing significant trends of GS changes are located in northern China. An extended GS in northern China indicates improved agricultural conditions due to warmer and longer GS. However| this effect may be counteracted by changes in the precipitation pattern. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 11161,2010,2,2,Tropical cloud forest climate variability and the demise of the Monteverde golden toad,Widespread amphibian extinctions in the mountains of the American tropics have been blamed on the interaction of anthropogenic climate change and a lethal pathogen. However| limited meteorological records make it difficult to conclude whether current climate conditions at these sites are actually exceptional in the context of natural variability. We use stable oxygen isotope measurements from trees without annual rings to reconstruct a century of hydroclimatology in the Monteverde Cloud Forest of Costa Rica. High-resolution measurements reveal coherent isotope cycles that provide annual chronological control and paleoclimate information. Climate variability is dominated by interannual variance in dry season moisture associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation events. There is no evidence of a trend associated with global warming. Rather| the extinction of the Monteverde golden toad (Bufo periglenes) appears to have coincided with an exceptionally dry interval caused by the 1986-1987 El Nino event. 11250,2010,5,4,Tropical cyclones and permanent El Nino in the early Pliocene epoch,Tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes and typhoons) are now believed to be an important component of the Earth's climate system(1-3). In particular| by vigorously mixing the upper ocean| they can affect the ocean's heat uptake| poleward heat transport| and hence global temperatures. Changes in the distribution and frequency of tropical cyclones could therefore become an important element of the climate response to global warming. A potential analogue to modern greenhouse conditions| the climate of the early Pliocene epoch (approximately 5 to 3 million years ago) can provide important clues to this response. Here we describe a positive feedback between hurricanes and the upper-ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean that may have been essential for maintaining warm| El Nino-like conditions(4-6) during the early Pliocene. This feedback is based on the ability of hurricanes to warm water parcels that travel towards the Equator at shallow depths and then resurface in the eastern equatorial Pacific as part of the ocean's wind-driven circulation(7|8). In the present climate| very few hurricane tracks intersect the parcel trajectories; consequently| there is little heat exchange between waters at such depths and the surface. More frequent and/or stronger hurricanes in the central Pacific imply greater heating of the parcels| warmer temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific| warmer tropics and| in turn| even more hurricanes. Using a downscaling hurricane model(9|10)| we show dramatic shifts in the tropical cyclone distribution for the early Pliocene that favour this feedback. Further calculations with a coupled climate model support our conclusions. The proposed feedback should be relevant to past equable climates and potentially to contemporary climate change. 11271,2010,2,4,Tropical phytoplankton taxa in Aquitaine lakes (France),In the last decades| numerous exotic species of microalgae have been found in the continental waters of Europe. In three natural shallow lakes located in the southwest of France| several planktonic species typically encountered in tropical areas were observed during 2006 and 2007. The most representative taxa were Planktolyngbya microspira Kom. & Cronb. P. circumcreta (G. S. West) Anagn. & Kom.| Cyanodictyon tropicale Senna| Delazari & Sant'Anna and Staurastrum excavatum var. planctonicum Krieg. These species had so far only been reported from African lakes and other tropical areas| but in this study they accounted for up to 58 and 12% of the total abundance and biomass| respectively| during spring and summer. Some of these lakes were studied in the 1970s and only exotic desmids were reported; but at that time| the three cited cyanobacteria were not described yet. Waterfowl are considered as the main dispersers because they migrate over long distances| transporting algae on the feet and feathers or in the digestive tract. In fact| the Aquitaine Region is one of the main bird migration corridors in Europe. Survival of cyanobacteria| diatoms and desmids carried by birds could be possible due to resting stages| sheaths investments or vegetative cells. In addition| global warming may have contributed to the success of these tropical species in temperate lakes. Indeed| minimal temperatures have increased significantly in the Aquitaine region over the last 30 years and could have played a key role in algal survival through winter. 726,2010,2,4,Tropical storm and environmental forcing on regional blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) settlement,Global climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and magnitude of hurricanes| typhoons and other extreme cyclonic disturbance events| with little known consequences for recruitment dynamics of marine species that rely on wind-driven larval transport to coastal settlement and nursery habitats. We conducted a large-scale settlement study of the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) in the Croatan-Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System (CAPES) in North Carolina| the second largest estuary in the US| during a 10-yr period that encompassed 35 tropical storms of varying magnitudes and tracks| to determine the effects of hurricane track| wind speed and direction as well as lunar-associated explanatory variables on spatiotemporal variation in settlement. The results suggest that much of the spatiotemporal variation in blue crab settlement within the CAPES is due to a combination of: (i) stochastic| meteorological events such as the number of tropical storm days during the fall recruitment season (similar to 28% of the monthly variation explained)| (ii) the frequency and duration of wind events blowing toward the southwest and| to a lesser degree| (iii) periodic events such as hours of dark flood tide. Tropical storms and hurricanes expand the blue crab nursery capacity of the CAPES. The benefits of hurricane-forcing to megalopal settlement was dependent upon the storm track| with highest settlement events generally associated with 'onshore' storm tracks that made landfall from the ocean and moved inland along a southeasterly/northwesterly path| or 'coastal' storms that followed a path roughly parallel to the coastline and were located < 300 km offshore of the coast. 561,2010,2,4,Tropical warming and the dynamics of endangered primates,Many primate species are severely threatened| but little is known about the effects of global warming and the associated intensification of El Nino events on primate populations. Here| we document the influences of the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and hemispheric climatic variability on the population dynamics of four genera of ateline (neotropical| large-bodied) primates. All ateline genera experienced either an immediate or a lagged negative effect of El Nino events. ENSO events were also found to influence primate resource levels through neotropical arboreal phenology. Furthermore| frugivorous primates showed a high degree of interspecific population synchrony over large scales across Central and South America attributable to the recent trends in large-scale climate. These results highlight the role of large-scale climatic variation and trends in ateline primate population dynamics| and emphasize that global warming could pose additional threats to the persistence of multiple species of endangered primates. 468,2010,2,4,Tropics| trophics and taxonomy: the determinants of parasite-associated host mortality,Empirical studies often reveal deleterious effects of parasites on host survival| but the ecological and environmental processes modulating parasite-associated host mortality are not well understood. We conducted meta-analysis of experimental studies assessing parasite-associated mortality (n = 52) to evaluate broad-scale patterns in host mortality risk relative to host or parasite taxon| parasite life cycle| or local environmental conditions. Overall| likelihood of host mortality was similar to 2.6 times higher among infected individuals when compared with hosts that either lacked parasites or had experimentally-reduced parasite burdens. Parasites with complex life cycles reliant on predation-mediated transmission generally were associated with higher mortality risk than those exploiting other transmission strategies. We also detected a negative relationship between parasite-associated host mortality and latitude; host mortality risk declined by similar to 2.6% with each degree increase in latitude. This result indicated the likely importance of abiotic factors in determining parasite effects. Host taxonomy further influenced parasite-associated mortality risk| with amphibian| fish| and mollusc hosts generally having higher hazard than arthropod| mammal| and bird hosts. Our results suggest patterns that conform to the predicted link between host mortality and parasite transmissibility| and pathogenicity. The relationship between host mortality and latitude in particular may portend marked shifts in host-parasite relationships pursuant to ongoing and projected global climate change. 10808,2010,2,4,Turbidity Hampers Mate Choice in a Pipefish,European coastal waters have in recent years become more turbid as algal growth has increased| probably due to eutrophication| global warming and changes in fish communities. Turbidity reduces visibility| and such changes may in turn affect animal behaviour as well as evolutionary processes that are dependent on visual stimuli. In this study we experimentally manipulated water visibility and olfactory cues to investigate mate choice using the sex role-reversed broad-nosed pipefish Syngnathus typhle as our study organism. We show that males spent significantly longer time assessing females when they had access to full visual cues| compared to when visibility was reduced. Presence or absence of olfactory cues from females did not affect mate choice| suggesting that the possible use of smell could not make up for a reduction in visibility. This implies that mate choice is environmentally dependent and that an increased turbidity may affect processes of sexual selection through an impaired possibility for visually based mate choice. 11070,2010,3,4,Twisting biomaterials around your little finger: environmental impacts of bio-based wrappings,Packaging uses nearly 40% of all polymers| a substantial share of which is used for sensitive merchandise such as moisture-sensitive food. To find out if bio-based materials are environmentally advantageous for this demanding application| we compared laminated| printed film across the whole life cycle. We compared bio-based materials (paper| polylactic acid| bio-based polyethylene| and a bio-based polyester) as well as conventional ones (polypropylene| polyethylene). Data stemmed from 13 companies that produce raw materials| films and/or laminates and which co-operated with us in a project commissioned by a large food producer. The functional unit chosen for this study is 1 m(2) of packaging film. This is (mostly) laminated| printed film that is delivered on reels to the food industry| where the laminate is cut| sealed and filled. The impact assessment is presented for non-renewable energy use| total energy use| global warming potential| depletion of abiotic resources| photo-oxidant formation| acidification| eutrophication| water use| and land use. For Inner Packs that get in direct contact with food and therefore require certain barrier properties| the environmental performance of many laminates is not better than the reference| petrochemical material. However| our study shows that paper/polypropylene laminates perform equally well as the current material (polypropylene) if the material is landfilled| and better if incinerated with energy recovery. For Outer Packs| bio-based polyethylene film shows a particularly low environmental impact. Paper/bio-based polyester laminates also offer significant savings compared with the current material. For Inner as well as Outer Packs| laminates including polylactic acid offer environmental advantages when accounting for wind credits or when assuming a future technology level for polymer or film production. Increased technology maturity of PLA and cellulose in the film production stage offers significant environmental improvement with respect to global warming potential compared with today's technology. Though large| the uncertainty regarding the degree of degradation of paper| cellulose| PLA and bio-based polyester| is not decisive for the conclusions. Generally| laminates and films (partly) consisting of bio-based polymers offer opportunities for significantly reducing environmental impacts of food packaging. Large variations in land-use are possible depending on the type of bio-based material that is used. The environmental advantages differ depending on the polymer and the final product (Inner vs. Outer Pack). Lack of experience and investment in converting bio-based polymers into final products and comparatively unfavourable material properties result in lower environmental advantages for some novel bio-based materials than one may expect. However| a) already today| the options with the lowest global warming potential are partly or fully bio-based and b) bio-based materials will benefit more from technological progress than conventional materials| potentially making certain bio-based laminates highly attractive options for the future. Overall| Outer Packs are more promising than Inner Packs when introducing bio-based wrappings to replace the current petrochemical material because a) the opportunities are clearer for this application and b) the product specifications (required barrier properties) are less demanding. Starting with the Outer Packs would also allow bio-based polymer producers and processors to invest and learn| thus offering the opportunity to reduce the environmental impact even further. 11528,2010,2,4,Two centuries of regional odonatology,Two centuries of regional odonatology A general presentation of the order Odonata (systematics| biology) is proposed first of all| followed by information on these insects in Rhone-Alpes| a region situated at the crossroads of Alpine| Atlantic and Mediterranean climates. Then| a synthesis summarizes more than two centuries of regional odonatology| where the local status of 7 species is discussed and specified. Finally| the study leads to the report of an improvement of the biodiversity of the regional dragonflies| especially owed these last 50 years to a much better knowledge of their current distribution and| additionally| to the effects of the global warming. 10411,2010,5,4,Two Necessary Conditions for the Glacial-Interglacial Cycles in the Quaternary,Milankovitch Theory shows that glacial-interglacial cycles in the Quaternary are related to the variation of solar insolation forcing linked to the earth's astronomical parameters. However| the summer insolation at northern high latitudes| usually considered as the main external forcing for the ice age as Milankovitch pointed out| is marked by the 19- and 23-ka precession periodicities| which is not consistent with the glacial-interglacial cycles. On the other hand| recent studies indicate that the annual mean insolation dominated by the obliquity is also an important external forcing in glacial cycles. In this paper| it is assumed that the glacial oscillation Is regulated simultaneously by the annual mean insolation at northern high latitudes related to obliquity and the noon insolation at summer solstice at the ice-line latitude related to precession. Only when both of them exceed some thresholds| does the ice sheet start to melt continuously to induce the global warming and deglaciation. Furthermore| the periodicity transition of glacial cycles at mid-Pleistocene was a natural change when the ice sheet thickness altered. A conceptual model based on this idea gives encouraging results compared with the isotopic data. 10977,2010,3,3,Uncertainties in the carbon footprint of food products: a case study on table potatoes,Background| aim| and scope Carbon footprint (CF) has become a hot topic as public awareness of climate change is placing demands on manufacturers to declare the climate impact of their products. Calculating the CF of food products is complex and associated with unavoidable uncertainty due to the inherent variability of natural processes. This study quantifies the uncertainty of a common food product and discusses the results in relation to different types of CF systems for food product labelling. Materials and methods A detailed LCI with global warming potential as the only impact category was performed on King Edward table potatoes grown in the Ostergotland region of Sweden. Parameters were described using one probability distribution for spatial and temporal variation and one separate distribution describing measuring/data uncertainty| allowing the effect of parameter resolution on CF uncertainty to be studied. Monte Carlo simulation was used to quantify the overall uncertainty. The influence of individual parameters on the CF was analysed and differences in CF for food products from different production systems| with and without climate impact reduction rules| were simulated. Results The potato CF fell in the range 0.10-0.16 kg CO(2)e per kilogram of potatoes with 95% certainty for an arbitrary year and field. Emissions of N(2)O from soil dominated the CF uncertainty. Locking the temporal variation to a specific year lowered the uncertainty range by 19%. Parameter collection on a spatial scale of one field did not reduce the uncertainty. The most sensitive parameters were the yield| the soil humus content and the emissions factors for N(2)O emissions from soil. Potatoes grown according to climate rules lowered the CF by 9% with a probability of 53% for an arbitrary year and field. Discussion The importance of yield| which proved to be the most influential parameter| is a common characteristic of agricultural products in general| since the accumulated emissions from a cultivated area are divided across the yield from that area. Maximising the yield reduces the CF but could have negative impacts on other environmental aspects. The purpose of the CF labelling scheme| together with uncertainty analysis| needs to be considered when determining how the CF should be calculated| as an average or for a specific year| farm| field| region| etc. Conclusions The CF of a potato crop calculated for an arbitrary year and field varied between approximately -17% and +30% of the average value with 95% certainty| showing that uncertainty analysis in the design| calculation and evaluation of food product CF labelling schemes is important to ensure fair comparisons. Recommendations and perspectives Similar studies comparing different production systems for the same type of product and products from different categories| on large and small scale depending on the purpose of the CF system| are needed in order to determine how the CF of food products can be compared and the precision with which data have to be collected in order to allow fair and effective comparison of the CF of food products. 10812,2010,4,4,Uncertainties of global warming metrics: CO(2) and CH(4),We present a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainties in the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) of CH(4)| using a simple climate model calibrated to AOGCMs and coupled climate-carbon cycle models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In addition| we estimate uncertainties in these metrics probabilistically by using a method that does not rely on AOGCMs but instead builds on historical constraints and uncertainty estimates of current radiative forcings. While our mean and median GWPs and GTPs estimates are consistent with previous studies| our analysis suggests that uncertainty ranges for GWPs are almost twice as large as estimated in the AR4. Relative uncertainties for GTPs are larger than for GWPs| nearly twice as high for a time horizon of 100 years. Given this uncertainty| our results imply the possibility for substantial future adjustments in best-estimate values of GWPs and in particular GTPs. Citation: Reisinger| A.| M. Meinshausen| M. Manning| and G. Bodeker (2010)| Uncertainties of global warming metrics: CO(2) and CH(4)| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L14707| doi:10.1029/2010GL043803. 11256,2010,4,3,Uncertainty propagation in soil greenhouse gas emission models: An experiment using the DNDC model and at the Oensingen cropland site,The increase of green house gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere is predominantly caused by the anthropogenic activities of fossil fuel burning and land use change. The flux of GHGs from soils and ecosystems to the atmosphere is large| and any errors in estimating these fluxes have a significant impact oil our quantification of the relative importance of land use in contributing to global warming. Numerical models have been developed to estimate the net flux of the biogenic GHGs: CO(2)| N(2)O and CH(4)| for various agricultural management practices. These models have been developed using data from many different experimental sites around the world| encompassing different crops| farm management systems| soil and climatic conditions. Crop experiments and GHG flux measurements are expensive and last several years if not decades so these models are Often used to test hypothesis about the effect of future conditions| land use scenarios and also to predict the effect of novel land management scenarios to reduce emissions. However| uncertainties in the input Soil parameters and meteorological data that drive these models propagates through them| resulting in uncertainties in the predictions of biogenic GHG emissions. This paper describes an experiment that investigates how well the commonly used de-nitrification decomposition (DNDC) soil model performs when used to predict the eddy-covariance CO(2) fluxes and crop yields measured in the first full year of the Oensingen cropland site in Switzerland. DNDC N(2)O predictions are compared to the IPCC emissions factors for arable land. This study includes an estimation of the uncertainty of soil input parameters| a sensitivity Study as to their effect on predicted GHG emissions and the propagation of their uncertainty through the model. This study considers uncertainty in meteorological measurements and the impact of using Subsets of this data in the model. In particular the effect of using monthly meteorological parameters to generate daily time series for input into the model is investigated and the error propagation quantified. The overall impact of uncertainty in input parameters on predicted biogenic GHG emissions is relatively small with the PDF of the uncertainties indicating that the NEE is over estimated by 3.6% and has a SD of 3.6% of the actual NEE. Nitrous oxide emissions are not biased but have a larger SD of 23% of emissions| which when the global warming impact is considered is only 3% of net flux. DNDC can therefore be used with confidence to predict emissions. with the caveat that the biomass production needs to be match to local conditions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10844,2010,2,4,Uncoupled transport of chlorofluorocarbons and anthropogenic carbon in the subpolar North Atlantic,Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) 11 and 12 transports across the transoceanic World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) A25 section in the subpolar North Atlantic are derived from an inverse model using hydrographic and ADCP data (Lherminier et al.| 2007). CFC and anthropogenic carbon (C(ANT)) advective transports contrary to expected are uncoupled: C(ANT) is transported northeastwards (82 +/- 39 kmol s(-1)) mainly within the overturning circulation| while CFC-11 and CFC-12 are transported southwestwards (-24 +/- 4 and -11 +/- 2 mol s(-1)| respectively) as part of the large-scale horizontal circulation. The main reason for this uncoupled behaviour is the complex CFC vs. C(ANT) relation in the ocean| which stems from the contrasting temperature relation for both tracers: more C(ANT) dissolves in warmer waters with a low Revel le factor| while CFC's solubility is higher in cold waters. These results point to C(ANT) and CFC having different routes of uptake| accumulation and transport within the ocean| and hence: C(ANT) transport would be more sensitive to changes in the overturning circulation strength| while CFC to changes in the East Greenland Current and Labrador Sea Water formation in the Irminger Sea. Additionally| C(ANT) and CFCs would have different sensitivities to circulation and climate changes derived from global warming as the slowdown of the overturning circulation| increase stratification due to warming and changes in wind stress. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10491,2010,2,4,Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change,Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum| energy| and water in the atmosphere| and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports| the ocean circulation and carbon cycle| and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change| and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere| and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming| including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature| so that| for example| a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past. 10857,2010,2,4,Unexpected Dominance of the Subtropical Copepod Temora turbinata in the Temperate Changjiang River Estuary and Its Possible Causes,Guang-Tao Zhang| Song Sun| Zhao-Li Xu| and Qi-Long Zhang (2010) Unexpected dominance of the subtropical copepod Temora turbinate in the temperate Changjiang River estuary and its possible causes. Zoological Studies 49(4): 492-503. The zooplankton community in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary (CRE) was sampled quarterly in 2004| the 1st yr after the Three Gorges Reservoir was impounded to a water level of 135 m| in order to investigate possible changes in the community structure after freshwater control upstream at the dam. Zooplankton assemblages were consistent with previous studies in all seasons except summer. A tropical-subtropical copepod species| Temora turbinata| was found to be the most abundant zooplankton species in this area for the 1st time in Aug. 2004| while previously dominant species| such as Calanus sinicus| Euchaeta concinna| and Labidocera euchaeta| decreased in abundance and appearance frequency. From historical data| T. turbinata was never dominant in this area before 2003. It was present only in summer| in accordance with the northerly invasion of the Taiwan Warm Current (TWC). In this study| the range of the Changjiang River Diluted Water was found to have shrunk in summer| and the TWC occupied a larger area of both the bottom and surface layers| compared to the long-term average. Our results indicate that T. turbinata in the CRE area was recruited from the southern part of the East China Sea by the TWC. Its unexpected dominance suggests a northward extension of warm-water species resulting from global warming| although it appeared immediately following water control at the Three Gorges Reservoir. http://zoolstud.sinica.edu.tw/Journals/49.4/492.pdf 706,2010,2,4,Unidirectional hybridization at a species' range boundary: implications for habitat tracking,Aim Introgressive hybridization between a locally rare species and a more abundant congener can drive population extinction via genetic assimilation| or the replacement of the rare species gene pool with that of the common species. To date| however| few studies have assessed the effects of such processes at the limits of species' distribution ranges. In this study| we have examined the potential for hybridization between range-edge populations of the wintergreen Pyrola minor and sympatric populations of Pyrola grandiflora. Location Qeqertarsuaq| Greenland and Churchill| Manitoba| Canada. Methods Genetic analysis of samples from Greenland and Canada was carried out using a combination of nuclear and chloroplast single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Results Analysis of nuclear SNPs confirmed hybridization in populations of morphologically intermediate individuals| as well as revealing the existence of cryptic hybrids in ostensibly morphologically pure P. minor populations. Analysis of chloroplast SNPs revealed that this hybridization is unidirectional and suggests that hybrids originate via pollen swamping of P. minor by the more common P. grandiflora. Main conclusions Extensive unidirectional hybridization may lead to the extinction of peripheral populations of P. minor where the two species grow sympatrically. Extinction could occur as a result of genetic assimilation where F(1)s are fertile| or via the removal of unidirectionally pollinated sterile F(1)s| or by a combination of these processes. This could compromise the ability of species to respond to climate change via habitat tracking| although the final outcome of these processes may ultimately depend on the rate of global climate change and its effect on the species' distributions. 10871,2010,2,4,UNITED STATES' INTERANNUAL PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY OVER THE PAST CENTURY: IS VARIABILITY INCREASING AS PREDICTED BY MODELS?,Many numerical models of climate predict an increase in interannual precipitation variability given the ongoing changes in global atmospheric composition. Few empirical studies exist in which trends in observed temporal precipitation variability have been systematically analyzed. In this investigation| we examine trends in interannual precipitation variability over the past century for the conterminous United States. A variety of statistical methods are applied to the time series| and we consistently find upward trends (most are statistically significant) in seasonal variability. Although strong spatial gradients or clusters do not appear in the trend values| trends toward increasing variability were substantially higher in the low-sun season than in the high-sun season. Our results from the United States provide empirical support for the many modeling studies simulating an increase in precipitation variability given continued global warming. 11007,2010,2,4,Unprecedented coastal upwelling in the East/Japan Sea and linkage to long-term large-scale variations,Unprecedented cold water was observed off the east coast of Korea in the summer of 2007| with the lowest temperature since 1961. The 9-year QuikSCAT satellite scatterometer wind field showed that the spectacular coastal upwelling was induced by Ekman transport to the offshore area by strong southerly winds. These characteristic winds were produced by the large scale air pressure distribution of typhoon Pabuk to the west| which stayed longest for the past half century| along with the North Pacific High (NPH) in the east. The duration of both tropical depressions and the westward moving NPH have shown characteristic increasing trends over several decades| which facilitate favorable conditions for the surface cooling. The negative trend in coastal water temperatures| in contrast with a positive trend offshore by global warming| supports the conclusion that small scale sea surface temperature variations at the coastal area could be remotely affected by long-term large-scale variations. Citation: Park| K.-A.| and K.-R. Kim (2010)| Unprecedented coastal upwelling in the East/Japan Sea and linkage to long-term large-scale variations| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L09603| doi: 10.1029/2009GL042231. 11040,2010,5,4,Unprecedented low twentieth century winter sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas since AD 1200,We reconstructed decadal to centennial variability of maximum sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas for A.D. 1200-1997 using a combination of a regional tree-ring chronology from the timberline area in Fennoscandia and delta(18)O from the Lomonosovfonna ice core in Svalbard. The reconstruction successfully explained 59% of the variance in sea ice extent based on the calibration period 1864-1997. The significance of the reconstruction statistics (reduction of error| coefficient of efficiency) is computed for the first time against a realistic noise background. The twentieth century sustained the lowest sea ice extent values since A.D. 1200: low sea ice extent also occurred before (mid-seventeenth and mid-eighteenth centuries| early fifteenth and late thirteenth centuries)| but these periods were in no case as persistent as in the twentieth century. Largest sea ice extent values occurred from the seventeenth to the nineteenth centuries| during the Little Ice Age (LIA)| with relatively smaller sea ice-covered area during the sixteenth century. Moderate sea ice extent occurred during thirteenth-fifteenth centuries. Reconstructed sea ice extent variability is dominated by decadal oscillations| frequently associated with decadal components of the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO)| and multi-decadal lower frequency oscillations operating at similar to 50-120 year. Sea ice extent and NAO showed a non-stationary relationship during the observational period. The present low sea ice extent is unique over the last 800 years| and results from a decline started in late-nineteenth century after the LIA. 10634,2010,2,4,Unusual Central Indian Drought of Summer Monsoon 2008: Role of Southern Tropical Indian Ocean Warming,While many of the previous positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) years were associated with above (below)normal monsoon rainfall over central (southern) India during summer monsoon months [June-September (JJAS)]| the IOD event in 2008 is associated with below (above)-normal rainfall in many parts of central (southern peninsular) India. Because understanding such regional organization is a key for success in regional prediction| using different datasets and atmospheric model simulations| the reasons for this abnormal behavior of the monsoon in 2008 are explored. Compared to normal positive IOD events| sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) in JJAS 2008 were abnormally high. Downwelling Rossby waves and oceanic heat advection played an important role in warming SST abnormally in the STIO. It was also found that the combined influence of a linear warming trend in the tropical Indian Ocean and warming associated with the IOD have resulted in abnormal warming of the STIO. This abnormal SST warming resulted in enhancement of convection in the southwest tropical Indian Ocean and forced anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the Bay of Bengal and central India| leading to suppressed rainfall over this region in JJAS 2008. The above mechanism is tested by conducting several model sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). These experiments confirmed that the subsidence over central India and the Bay of Bengal was forced mainly by the anomalous warming in the STIO region driven by coupled ocean-atmosphere processes. This study provides the first evidence of combined Indian Ocean warming| associated with global warming| and IOD-related warming influence on Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined influence may force below-normal rainfall over central India by inducing strong convection in the STIO region. The conventional seesaw in convection between the Indian subcontinent and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may shift to the central equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal if the central Indian Ocean consistently warms in the global warming scenario. 428,2010,2,4,Upper thermal tolerances of early life stages of freshwater mussels,Freshwater mussels (order Unioniformes) fulfill an essential role in benthic aquatic communities| but also are among the most sensitive and rapidly declining faunal groups in North America. Rising water temperatures| caused by global climate change| industrial discharges| drought| or land development| could further challenge imperiled unionid communities. The aim of our study was to determine the upper thermal tolerances of the larval (glochidia) and juvenile life stages of freshwater mussels. Glochidia of 8 species of mussels were tested: Lampsilis siliquoidea| Potamilus alatus| Ligumia recta| Ellipsaria lineolata| Lasmigona complanata| Megalonaias nervosa| Alasmidonta varicosa| and Villosa delumbis. Seven of these species also were tested as juveniles. Survival trends were monitored while mussels held at 3 acclimation temperatures (17| 22| and 27 degrees C) were exposed to a range of common and extreme water temperatures (20-42 degrees C) in standard acute laboratory tests. The average median lethal temperature (LT50) among species in 24-h tests with glochidia was 31.6 degrees C and ranged from 21.4 to 42.7 degrees C. The mean LT50 in 96-h juvenile tests was 34.7 degrees C and ranged from 32.5 to 38.8 degrees C. Based on comparisons of LT50s| thermal tolerances differed among species for glochidia| but not for juveniles. Acclimation temperature did not affect thermal tolerance for either life stage. Our results indicate that freshwater mussels already might be living close to their upper thermal tolerances in some systems and| thus| might be at risk from rising environmental temperatures. 11401,2010,2,4,Upwelling areas do not guarantee refuge for coral reefs in a warming ocean,Global warming is a severe threat to coral reefs. It has been proposed that upwelling could minimise the thermal stress caused by ocean warming| and therefore upwelling areas may serve as a refuge for corals. Here| using 21 yr of satellite sea surface temperature data| we analysed the degree to which the thermal stress experienced by corals is reduced in 4 seasonal upwelling areas with reef development: Colombia in the southern Caribbean| Panama in the eastern tropical Pacific| Oman in the Arabian Sea and Madagascar in the Indian Ocean. Upwelling areas do not always offer protection from thermal stress. When compared with nearby non-upwelling areas| upwelling can only provide defence against warming events if: (1) the threat and the upwelling coincide| and (2) this overlap produces a meaningful decrease in thermal stress in upwelling areas. These conditions were met in only 2 of the 4 upwelling areas analysed: Colombia and Oman. In Oman| upwelling decreased the magnitude| frequency and duration of thermal disturbances (identified when Coral Bleaching HotSpots| anomalies exceeding the average temperature of the warmest month| are larger than 1 C)| while in Colombia upwelling only decreased their frequency. The protective role of upwelling seems to be limited geographically; therefore| further upwelling areas need to be assessed individually in order to evaluate their capacity as a refuge from thermal stress. 672,2010,2,4,Upwelling couples chemical and biological dynamics across the littoral and pelagic zones of Lake Tanganyika| East Africa,We studied the effects of upwelling on nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics in the pelagic and littoral zones of Lake Tanganyika near Kigoma| Tanzania. During the dry season of 2004| a rise in the thermocline and sudden drop in surface water temperatures indicated a substantial upwelling event. Increases in concentrations of nitrate| soluble reactive phosphorus| and silica in the surface waters occurred simultaneously after the temperature drop. Within days| chlorophyll a concentrations increased and remained elevated| while inorganic nutrient concentrations returned to preupwelling levels and organic nutrient concentrations peaked. We observed parallel temporal patterns of water temperature| nutrient concentrations| and phytoplankton chlorophyll in both the pelagic and the littoral zones| demonstrating that upwelling strongly affects the nearshore ecosystem as well as the pelagic zone. Concurrent records from 12 littoral sites indicated spatial variation in the timing| magnitude| and biological response to upwelling. There was no discernable latitudinal pattern in the timing of upwelling| suggesting that mixing did not result from a progressive wave. Our monitoring| as well as other multiyear studies| suggests that dry-season upwelling occurs during most years in northern Lake Tanganyika. The observed sensitivity of littoral nutrients and phytoplankton to upwelling suggests that reductions in upwelling due to global climate change could strongly affect the dynamics of the spectacular nearshore ecosystem of Lake Tanganyika| as has been proposed for the pelagic zone. 422,2010,3,4,Urban climate,Urban areas play an outstanding role regarding to the impact assessment of Global Climate Change at the local and regional scale. Due to the high population density towns and cities exhibit an increased vulnerability towards shifting climatic conditions. To perform counteractive measures against the changing climate impacts in urban areas| detailed knowledge about urban climatic phenomena and causalities is essential. Therefore characteristic differences between urban and rural climates are outlined within the frames of the given paper. On part 1 an analysis of the urban atmospheric boundary layer structure| modifications of the urban radiation and energy balance are discussed. In addition to the characteristics of the urban heat island effect and urban air quality| the impact of built-up areas on atmospheric humidity| precipitation and fog are reviewed. In part 2 methods for illustration and evaluation of urban climatic effects| as well as tasks for meliorating the urban climate are considered. The article ends with a prospect on future changes in urban climate modifications caused by global climatic changes which are predicted by model simulations. Recommendations for mitigation of these impacts on the neighborhood are given. 571,2010,2,3,US local action on heat and health: are we prepared for climate change?,Global climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves| hot weather| and temperature variability| which contribute to mortality and illness. Baseline information on local efforts to reduce heat vulnerability| including public advisories; minimizing greenhouse gas emissions; and mitigating urban heat islands| is lacking. We designed a survey about local government programs to prevent health problems and reduce heat exposure during heatwaves and administered it to 285 US communities. Of 70 respondents| 26 indicated that excessive heat events are a significant issue for the local government; 30 had established preventive programs. Local government leadership and public health impacts of heat were cited most frequently as extremely important determinants of preventive programs| followed by implementation costs| economic impacts of hot weather| and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. Cool paving materials and vegetated roofs were common heat mitigation strategies. Fact sheets and case studies were desired guidance for protecting communities during hot weather. New partnerships and financial resources are needed to support more widespread local action to prevent adverse health consequences of climate change and promote environmental sustainability. 10684,2010,2,4,Use of digital cameras for phenological observations,Vegetation phenology such as the onset of green-up and senescence is strongly controlled by climate and other environmental factors| and in turn affects the terrestrial carbon balance. Therefore| phenological observation is important as an indicator of global warming and for estimation of the terrestrial carbon balance Because phenological responses differ from species to species| precise monitoring from the species scale to the global scale is required. In this study| we analyzed images from digital cameras| which have proliferated in recent years| to investigate their utility as remote sensors. We collected daily images taken by digital cameras in national parks across Japan over 8 years in wetland mixed deciduous forest| and evergreen broadleaved forest Values of red| green| and blue (RGB) channels in each pixel within images were extracted| and a vegetation green excess index (2G-RBI) was calculated to detect phenology. The time series of 2G-RBI showed clear phenological patterns of each vegetation type in each year at the species or community scale. Even physiological damage due to a typhoon was detected The dates of green-up were estimated easily and objectively from the second derivative of 2G-RBI| and a trend in yearly green-up dates of various types of vegetation was demonstrated Furthermore| a strong correlation between interannual variations in green-up dates and local spring temperature was found| and the sensitivity of green-up date to temperature was revealed. The results suggest the utility of digital cameras for phenological observations at precise temporal and spatial resolutions| despite a year-to-year drift of color balance of camera as a technical device. As a form of near-surface remote sensing| digital cameras could obtain significant ecological information Establishing camera networks could help us understand phenological responses at a wide range of scales (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved 11004,2010,2,3,Using genetic algorithms to calibrate a dimethylsulfide production model in the Arctic Ocean,The global climate is intimately connected to changes in the polar oceans. The variability of sea ice coverage affects deep-water formations and large-scale thermohaline circulation patterns. The polar radiative budget is sensitive to sea-ice loss and consequent surface albedo changes. Aerosols and polar cloud microphysics are crucial players in the radioactive energy balance of the Arctic Ocean. The main biogenic source of sulfate aerosols to the atmosphere above remote seas is dimethylsulfide (DMS). Recent research suggests the flux of DMS to the Arctic atmosphere may change markedly under global warming. This paper describes climate data and DMS production (based on the five years from 1998 to 2002) in the region of the Barents Sea (30-35 degrees E and 70-80 degrees N). A DMS model is introduced together with an updated calibration method. A genetic algorithm is used to calibrate the chlorophyll-a (CHL) measurements (based on satellite SeaWiFS data) and DMS content (determined from cruise data collected in the Arctic). Significant interannual variation of the CHL amount leads to significant interannual variability in the observed and modeled production of DMS in the study region. Strong DMS production in 1998 could have been caused by a large amount of ice algae being released in the southern region. Forcings from a general circulation model (CSIRO Mk3) were applied to the calibrated DMS model to predict the zonal mean sea-to-air flux of DMS for contemporary and enhanced greenhouse conditions at 70-80 degrees N. It was found that significantly decreasing ice coverage| increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing mixed-layer depth could lead to annual DMS flux increases of more than 100% by the time of equivalent CO(2) tripling (the year 2080). This significant perturbation in the aerosol climate could have a large impact on the regional Arctic heat budget and consequences for global warming. 11419,2010,4,4,Using L-band SAR coherence to delineate glacier extent,Significant retreat has been seen in many glaciers worldwide. With increasing concern about the impact of global warming| there has been a concerted effort to monitor ongoing change. Projects such as Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) rely on the contributions of institutions worldwide to update a global database of digital glacier outlines. To a great extent| this effort relies on the manual extraction of glacier area from satellite optical instruments| such as the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). Unfortunately| dependence on optical imagery poses two significant challenges. First| clouds preclude the viewing of many glaciers| making periodic measurements impossible. Second| many alpine glaciers have significant debris cover| additionally complicating delineation of glacier extent from optical data. The sensitivity of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) coherence to motion offers a method for detecting glacial extent that is independent of weather and allows for the discrimination of active glaciers| with and without debris cover. In this paper| we describe an automated method for delineating the surface area of two glaciers in Alaska| one with and one without a debris-covered terminus. We use the periodic global observations of the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array L-band SAR (PALSAR) instrument to generate coherence images. Low coherence serves as our primary indicator of glacial extent. However| coherence can be degraded by dense vegetation and the topography of mountainous areas. Hence we develop a decision tree that also considers phase gradients and mountain slope to identify glacier boundaries. The result is a robust technique for generating digital glacier outlines. Coupled with the comprehensive global acquisitions of ALOS| it suggests a new method for measuring glacier extents around the world. 512,2010,4,4,Using soil sensing technology to examine interactions and controls between ectomycorrhizal growth and environmental factors on soil CO(2) dynamics,Soils play a critical role in the global carbon cycle| yet the biophysical factors regulating soil CO(2) dynamics remain unclear. We combined high-frequency in situ observations of fine roots and ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi with data from multiple soil sensor arrays to examine the biophysical interactions influencing soil CO(2) production for one year in a mixed conifer forest. Using structural equation modeling we constructed a hypothesized model to test for causal interactions among environmental factors| biotic factors| and soil CO(2) dynamics throughout the soil profile. According to our model| seasonal variation in CO(2) production was significantly influenced by EM rhizomorph production| soil temperature| and soil moisture. Fine root production| on the other hand| did not appear to significantly influence soil CO(2) production. The relationship between EM rhizomorph production and soil CO(2) production was also supported by a zero temporal lag between these two measurements in a cross-correlation analysis. In contrast| CO(2) production increased before fine root production suggesting that these two measurements were decoupled in time. Results from this study highlight the need to better understand differences in carbon allocation between plant roots and EM fungi to improve our predictions of soil carbon dynamics under global climate change. 694,2010,3,4,Using the Multiactor-Approach in Glowa-Danube to Simulate Decisions for the Water Supply Sector Under Conditions of Global Climate Change,Glowa-Danube (http://www.glowa-danube.de) is an interdisciplinary project that aims to develop integrated strategies and tools for water and land use management in the upper Danube catchment (Germany| Austria similar to 77|000 km(2)). The project is one of five within the Glowa research program (http://www.glowa.org) dealing with Global Change effects on the water cycle in six meso-scale catchments (up to 100|000 km(2)) in Central Europe| West Africa and the Middle East. In the Glowa-Danube project| 16 natural science and socio-economic simulation models are integrated in the coupled simulation system Danubia. This article describes the underlying concept and implementation of WaterSupply| a multiactor-based model of the water supply sector with a focus on water resource utilization and distribution of individual water supply companies. Within Danubia| WaterSupply represents the link between water supply and demand| where the former is simulated by a groundwater and a surface water model and the latter by water consumption models of four different sectors (domestic| industrial| agricultural and tourism). WaterSupply interprets the quantitative state of water resources for defined spatial and temporal units according to sustainability requirements and assesses the state of resources in relation to present water supply schemes and the dynamics of user demand. WaterSupply then seeks both to optimize the resource use of supply companies and to identify critical regions for which further adaptation of the water supply scheme will become necessary under changing climatic conditions. In this article| a brief description of the Glowa-Danube project and the integrated simulation system Danubia is followed by a short presentation of the DeepActor framework| which provides a common conceptual and technical basis for the socio-economic simulation models of Glowa-Danube. The main body of the article is devoted to the concept| the implementation and simulation results of WaterSupply. Results from different scenario calculations demonstrate the capabilities and the potential fields of application of the model. 11463,2010,3,3,Utilisation of eggshell membrane as an adsorbent for carbon dioxide,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is a major greenhouse gas responsible for global warming. This work aims to explore a cheap and easy way for CO(2) adsorption from the atmosphere| by using an eggshell membrane. Eggshell membrane could be used upto four times with intermediate regeneration with acetic acid solution. Atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS) analysed the amount of CO(2) adsorbed as equivalent calcium (Ca) present in calcium carbonate (CaCO(3)). An average of 6824 mg CO(2) could be adsorbed per g of eggshell membrane. Scanning electron micrograph (SEM) was used to analyse the surface morphology of the fresh and regenerated eggshell membrane.
10724,2010,2,4,Variability in exchange of CO(2) across 12 northern peatland and tundra sites,Many wetland ecosystems such as peatlands and wet tundra hold large amounts of organic carbon (C) in their soils| and are thus important in the terrestrial C cycle. We have synthesized data on the carbon dioxide (CO(2)) exchange obtained from eddy covariance measurements from 12 wetland sites| covering 1-7 years at each site| across Europe and North America| ranging from ombrotrophic and minerotrophic peatlands to wet tundra ecosystems| spanning temperate to arctic climate zones. The average summertime net ecosystem exchange of CO(2) (NEE) was highly variable between sites. However| all sites with complete annual datasets| seven in total| acted as annual net sinks for atmospheric CO(2). To evaluate the influence of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R(eco)) on NEE| we first removed the artificial correlation emanating from the method of partitioning NEE into GPP and R(eco). After this correction neither R(eco) (P = 0.162) nor GPP (P = 0.110) correlated significantly with NEE on an annual basis. Spatial variation in annual and summertime R(eco) was associated with growing season period| air temperature| growing degree days| normalized difference vegetation index and vapour pressure deficit. GPP showed weaker correlations with environmental variables as compared with R(eco)| the exception being leaf area index (LAI)| which correlated with both GPP and NEE| but not with R(eco). Length of growing season period was found to be the most important variable describing the spatial variation in summertime GPP and R(eco); global warming will thus cause these components to increase. Annual GPP and NEE correlated significantly with LAI and pH| thus| in order to predict wetland C exchange| differences in ecosystem structure such as leaf area and biomass as well as nutritional status must be taken into account. 575,2010,2,4,VARIABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT HAVE AFFECTED MEXICO,Mexico is vulnerable to the influence of tropical cyclones that develop in the Pacific Northeast and North Atlantic Oceans. During the last years| the destructive force of some of them has led to the idea that their frequency or/and intensity tend to increase due to the global climate change. A greater number of topical cyclones are formed in the Pacific Ocean; however| oceanic and atmospheric circulation displaces them away from the Mexican coasts. That is no the case for the tropical cyclones from the Atlantic Ocean. The analysis over a period of more than 50 years shows that there is no clear increase tendency of those meteors| and that the Mexican states with greater impact from tropical cyclones at the Pacific coast are Baja California Sur| Sinaloa| while for the Atlantic coast they are Tamaulipas and Quintana Roo. 11289,2010,2,4,Variable winter moisture in the southwestern United States linked to rapid glacial climate shifts,During the last glacial period| the climate of the Northern Hemisphere was characterized by rapid| large-amplitude temperature fluctuations through cycles lasting a few thousand years(1-3). These fluctuations are apparent in Greenland temperature reconstructions(2|3)| and corresponding temperature and hydrological variations have been documented throughout the Northern Hemisphere(4|5). Here we present a record of precipitation in the southwestern United States from 56|000 to 11|000 yr ago| on the basis of delta(18)O measurements of speleothem calcite from New Mexico. Our record shows that increased winter precipitation in the southwestern United States is associated with Northern Hemisphere cooling| which we attribute to a southward shift in the polar jet stream| which modulated the position of the winter storm track over North America. On the western side of the Pacific Ocean basin| decreases in summer monsoon precipitation are associated with Northern Hemisphere cooling| due to southward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone(4). We conclude that cooling and warming excursions in the Northern Hemisphere lead to concurrent latitudinal displacement of both the intertropical convergence zone and the polar jet stream over the Pacific Ocean. Our data are consistent with modern evidence for a northward shift of the polar jet stream in response to global warming(6-8)| which could lead to increasingly arid conditions in southwestern North America in the future. 616,2010,2,4,Variation in Organic Matter and Water Color in Lake Malaren during the Past 70 Years,Interest in long time series of organic matter data has recently increased due to concerns about the effects of global climate change on aquatic ecosystems. This study presents and evaluates unique time series of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and water color from Lake Malaren| Sweden| stretching almost seven decades (1935-2004). A negative linear trend was found in COD| but not in water color. The decrease was mainly due to installation of sewage works around 1970. Time series of COD and water color had cyclic pattern. It was strongest for COD| with 23 years periodicity. Similar periodicity observed in air temperature and precipitation in Sweden has been attributed to the North Atlantic Oscillation index and solar system orbit| suggesting that COD in Lake Malaren is partly derived from algae. Discharge influenced water color more than COD| possibly because water color consists of colored substances brought into the lake from surrounding soils. 601,2010,2,4,Variation in the heat shock response and its implication for predicting the effect of global climate change on species' biogeographical distribution ranges and metabolic costs,The preferential synthesis of heat shock proteins (Hsps) in response to thermal stress [the heat shock response (HSR)] has been shown to vary in species that occupy different thermal environments. A survey of case studies of aquatic (mostly marine) organisms occupying stable thermal environments at all latitudes| from polar to tropical| shows that they do not in general respond to heat stress with an inducible HSR. Organisms that occupy highly variable thermal environments (variations up to >20 degrees C)| like the intertidal zone| induce the HSR frequently and within the range of body temperatures they normally experience| suggesting that the response is part of their biochemical strategy to occupy this thermal niche. The highest temperatures at which these organisms can synthesize Hsps are only a few degrees Celsius higher than the highest body temperatures they experience. Thus| they live close to their thermal limits and any further increase in temperature is probably going to push them beyond those limits. In comparison| organisms occupying moderately variable thermal environments (<10 degrees C)| like the subtidal zone| activate the HSR at temperatures above those they normally experience in their habitats. They have a wider temperature range above their body temperature range over which they can synthesize Hsps. Contrary to our expectations| species from highly (in comparison with moderately) variable thermal environments have a limited acclimatory plasticity. Due to this variation in the HSR| species from stable and highly variable environments are likely to be more affected by climate change than species from moderately variable environments. 11236,2010,2,4,Variation of soil and biomass carbon pools in beech forests across a precipitation gradient,Temperate forests have recently been identified as being continuing sinks for carbon even in their mature and senescent stages. However| modeling exercises indicate that a warmer and drier climate as predicted for parts of Central Europe may substantially alter the source/sink function of these economically important ecosystems. In a transect study with 14 mature European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests growing on uniform geological substrate| we analyzed the influence of a large reduction of annual precipitation (970-520 mm yr-1) on the carbon stocks in fast and slow pools| independent of the well-known aging effect. We investigated the C storage in the organic L| F| H layers| the mineral soil to 100 cm| and in the biomass (stem| leaves| fine roots)| and analyzed the dependence of these pools on precipitation. Soil organic carbon decreased by about 25% from stands with > 900 mm yr-1 to those with < 600 mm yr-1; while the carbon storage in beech stems slightly increased. Reduced precipitation affected the biomass C pool in particular in the fine root fraction but much less in the leaf biomass and stem fractions. Fine root turnover increased with a precipitation reduction| even though stand fine root biomass and SOC in the organic L| F| and H layers decreased. According to regression analyses| the C storage in the organic layers was mainly controlled by the size of the fine root C pool suggesting an important role of fine root turnover for the C transfer from tree biomass to the SOC pool. We conclude that the long-term consequence of a substantial precipitation decrease would be a reduction of the mineral soil and organic layer SOC pools| mainly due to higher decomposition rates. This could turn temperate beech forests into significant carbon sources instead of sinks under global warming. 10526,2010,2,4,Variations in equilibrium line altitude of the Qiyi Glacier| Qilian Mountains| over the past 50 years,Based on observations of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountain| we established a statistical model between ELA and its major influencing factors| warm season air temperature (air temperature averages for September| July and August) and cold season precipitation (total precipitation in the period January through March). Warm season air temperature was the leading climatic factor influencing ELA variations. The glacier ELA ascends (descends) 172 m when warm season air temperature increases (decreases) by 1A degrees C| and ascends (descends) 62 m when cold season precipitation decreases (increases) by 10%. In the period 1958-2008| the glacier ELA showed a general increasing trend| ascending 230 m and reaching its highest altitude in 2006 at 5131 m a.s.l.| close to the glacier summit. If future climate is similar to that in the period 2001-2008| the Qiyi Glacier will not stabilize until it retreats by 2.08 km. 11293,2010,5,4,Vegetation Response to Early Holocene Warming as an Analog for Current and Future Changes,Temperatures in southwestern North America are projected to increase 3.5-4 degrees C over the next 60-90 years. This will precipitate ecological shifts as the ranges of species change in response to new climates. During this shift| rapid-colonizing species should increase| whereas slow-colonizing species will at first decrease| but eventually become reestablished in their new range. This successional process has been estimated to require from 100 to over 300 years in small areas| under a stable climate| with a nearby seed source. How much longer will it require on a continental scale| under a changing climate| without a nearby seed source? I considered this question through an examination of the response of fossil plant assemblages from the Grand Canyon| Arizona| to the most recent rapid warming of similar magnitude that occurred at the start of the Holocene| 11|700 years ago. At that time| temperatures in southwestern North America increased about 4 degrees C over less than a century. Grand Canyon plant species responded at different rates to this warming climate. Early-successional species rapidly increased| whereas late-successional species decreased. This shift persisted throughout the next 2700 years. I found two earlier| less-extreme species shifts following rapid warming events around 14|700 and 16|800 years ago. Late-successional species predominated only after 4000 years or more of relatively stable temperature. These results suggest the potential magnitude| duration| and nature of future ecological changes and have implications for conservation plans| especially those incorporating equilibrium assumptions or reconstituting past conditions. When these concepts are extended to include the most rapid early-successional colonizers| they imply that the recent increases in invasive exotics may be only the most noticeable part of a new resurgence of early-successional vegetation. Additionally| my results challenge the reliability of models of future vegetation and carbon balance that project conditions on the basis of assumptions of equilibrium within only a century. 10898,2010,2,4,Vibrio infections triggering mass mortality events in a warming Mediterranean Sea,Mass mortality events of benthic invertebrates in the temperate north-western (NW) Mediterranean Sea have been observed in recent seasons. A 16 month in situ study in the Ligurian Sea (NW Mediterranean Sea) demonstrated that the occurrence of Paramuricea clavata mortality episodes were concomitant to a condition of prolonged high sea surface temperatures| low chlorophyll concentrations and the presence of culturable Vibrio spp. in seawater. The occurrence of Vibrio spp. at the seasonal scale was correlated with temperature; with few vibrios retrieved on specific media when the temperature dropped below 18 degrees C and a sharp increase of vibrios abundance (up to 3.4 x 10(4) MPN I(-1)) when the temperature was greater than or equal to 22 degrees C. Phylogenetic and phenotypic analysis of Vibrio isolates associated with healthy and diseased P clavata colonies collected during a mortality episode showed that these bacteria were significantly more abundant in diseased than in healthy corals and were related to the V. harveyi| V. splendidus and V. coralliilyticus groups| the latter only identified in diseased organisms. Inoculation of bacterial isolates from these groups onto healthy P. clavata in aquaria caused disease signs and death in a range of Vibrio concentrations| temperature values and trophic conditions consistent with those recorded in the field. It is concluded that Vibrio infections may act as an additional triggering mechanism of mass mortality events in the coastal Mediterranean Sea and that their occurrence is climate-linked. Predicted global warming leading to long-lasting hot summer periods together with stratification resulting in energetic constraints represent a major threat to the survival of benthic invertebrates in the temperate NW Mediterranean Sea due to potential disease outbreak associated with Vibrio pathogens. 10402,2010,2,4,Vulnerability assessment of climate-induced water shortage in Phoenix,Global warming has profound consequences for the climate of the American Southwest and its overallocated water supplies. This paper uses simulation modeling and the principles of decision making under uncertainty to translate climate information into tools for vulnerability assessment and urban climate adaptation. A dynamic simulation model| WaterSim| is used to explore future water-shortage conditions in Phoenix. Results indicate that policy action will be needed to attain water sustainability in 2030| even without reductions in river flows caused by climate change. Challenging but feasible changes in lifestyle and slower rates of population growth would allow the region to avoid shortage conditions and achieve groundwater sustainability under all but the most dire climate scenarios. Changes in lifestyle involve more native desert landscaping and fewer pools in addition to slower growth and higher urban densities. There is not a single most likely or optimal future for Phoenix. Urban climate adaptation involves using science-based models to anticipate water shortage and manage climate risk. 10520,2010,2,4,Vulnerability of pejerrey Odontesthes bonariensis populations to climate change in pampean lakes of Argentina,The vulnerability of the pejerrey Odontesthes bonariensis population in Lake Chasico was assessed under different climate change conditions. During the sampling period| the water temperature was adequate for fish reproduction and to sustain an adequate sex ratio. Climate-driven higher temperatures| however| may severely distort population structure and cause drastic reduction or local extinction of stocks. Lake Chasico can be classified as eutrophic with clear waters and cyanobacteria that regularly cause fish mortality were identified as Nodularia spumigena and Oscillatoria sp. Global warming may strengthen the effects of eutrophication (e.g. toxic blooms or anoxia). Since many Cyanophyta species tolerate higher temperatures better than other algae| toxic blooms could increase. Furthermore| cyanobacteria have low nutritional value and could decouple the low-diversity food web. Lake Chasico has currently the salinity optimum (c. 20) for the development of the early life-history stages of O. bonariensis. Climate change| however| is likely to amplify the intensity of droughts or inundations. Floods can endanger O. bonariensis development due to its sub-optimal growth at low salinity and droughts could increase lake salinity and also temperature and nutrient concentration. In order to reduce some of the effects of climate change on the O. bonariensis population in Lake Chasico| integrated basin management based on an eco-hydrological approach is proposed. 11259,2010,2,4,Vulnerability of Pinus cembra L. in the Alps and the Carpathian mountains under present and future climates,Proactive management should be applied within a forest conservation context to prevent extinction or degradation of those forest ecosystems that we suspect will be affected by global warming in the next century. The aim of this study is to estimate the vulnerability under climate change of a localized and endemic tree species Pinus cembra that occurs in the alpine timberline. We used the Random Forest ensemble classifier and available bioclimatic and ecological data to model present and future suitable areas for A cembra and estimate its current and future vulnerability. Future projections for years 2020| 2050 and 2080 were simulated using two IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios run under four global climate models. The suitability model described the optimal environmental conditions for P. cembra. Model scores (kappa = 0.77| sensitivity = 0.99 and specificity = 0.80) are robust. The main factors defining the model were Kira's warmth index and summer temperatures. Results show that there is potential for P. cembra to regenerate and persist in currently suitable areas. Future trends analysis suggested a cumulated mean loss of suitable areas of between 53% and 72% for different scenarios. All modeled projections predicted an upslope shift of the optimally suitable A cembra belt and no downslope shift. We discuss environmental factors/plant interactions| the theoretical assumptions behind the model| model strengths and limitations| and we highlight the conservative traits of our analysis. The results suggest that forest management practices will play a fundamental role in the conservation of P. cembra habitats in the Alps. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10827,2010,2,3,Warming alters the metabolic balance of ecosystems,The carbon cycle modulates climate change| via the regulation of atmospheric CO(2)| and it represents one of the most important services provided by ecosystems. However| considerable uncertainties remain concerning potential feedback between the biota and the climate. In particular| it is unclear how global warming will affect the metabolic balance between the photosynthetic fixation and respiratory release of CO(2) at the ecosystem scale. Here| we present a combination of experimental field data from freshwater mesocosms| and theoretical predictions derived from the metabolic theory of ecology to investigate whether warming will alter the capacity of ecosystems to absorb CO(2). Our manipulative experiment simulated the temperature increases predicted for the end of the century and revealed that ecosystem respiration increased at a faster rate than primary production| reducing carbon sequestration by 13 per cent. These results confirmed our theoretical predictions based on the differential activation energies of these two processes. Using only the activation energies for whole ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration we provide a theoretical prediction that accurately quantified the precise magnitude of the reduction in carbon sequestration observed experimentally. We suggest the combination of whole-ecosystem manipulative experiments and ecological theory is one of the most promising and fruitful research areas to predict the impacts of climate change on key ecosystem services. 10786,2010,3,2,Warming influenced by the ratio of black carbon to sulphate and the black-carbon source,Black carbon is generated by fossil-fuel combustion and biomass burning. Black-carbon aerosols absorb solar radiation| and are probably a major source of global warming(1|2). However| the extent of black-carbon-induced warming is dependent on the concentration of sulphate and organic aerosols-which reflect solar radiation and cool the surface-and the origin of the black carbon(3|4). Here we examined the impact of black-carbon-to-sulphate ratios on net warming in China| using surface and aircraft measurements of aerosol plumes from Beijing| Shanghai and the Yellow Sea. The Beijing plumes had the highest ratio of black carbon to sulphate| and exerted a strong positive influence on the net warming. Compiling all the data| we show that solar-absorption efficiency was positively correlated with the ratio of black carbon to sulphate. Furthermore| we show that fossil-fuel-dominated black-carbon plumes were approximately 100% more efficient warming agents than biomass-burning-dominated plumes. We suggest that climate-change-mitigation policies should aim at reducing fossil-fuel black-carbon emissions| together with the atmospheric ratio of black carbon to sulphate. 386,2010,5,4,Warming magnitude of Indonesian Throughflow during the penultimate deglaciation (Termination II) and its relationship with climate change in high-latitude regions,The tropical oceans are important source areas for global heat and water vapor transport| and changes in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) will have important impacts on high-latitude and global climate change. It is crucial to establish the precise phase relationship between tropical and high-latitude climate variability to gain insight into the mechanisms of global climate change. Here| we present multi-proxy records across the penultimate deglaciation (Termination II) from sediment Core SO18459| which is located in the outflow area of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) of the Timor Sea. These proxy records include planktonic and benthic foraminifera delta(18)O| planktonic foraminifera G. ruber Mg/Ca-derived SST| and delta(18)O(w) of sea surface water. The Mg/Ca-SST records indicate a warming of 4.1 degrees C in the Timor Sea over Termination 11| which is in phase with decrease in planktonic and benthic delta(18)O. Our results suggest that at millennial timescales| climate change of the tropical oceans is synchronous with high-latitude ice volume changes. Furthermore| warming of the Timor Sea is almost simultaneous with warming of the Antarctic| suggesting a rapid heat transfer from the tropics to the Antarctic via the atmosphere and/or ocean circulations. The G. ruber delta(18)O and SST records of Core SO18459 show a marked YD-like event during Termination II| which is probably caused by decrease in Australian rainfall or strengthening of the Western Pacific Warm Pool. However| a similar YD-like event is not observed in East Asian rainfall records. This discrepancy indicates that different tropical climate systems may have different responses to the same forcing| such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. A similar YD-like event is observed in the global benthic foraminiferal delta(18)O records during Termination II| implying teleconnection of millennial scale climate change between the tropical regions and high latitudes. 534,2010,2,4,Water conservation of forest ecosystem in Beijing and its value,Under a scenario of global climate change| the water conservation function of Beijing's forest ecosystems has attracted considerable public attention. In this paper| the term of water conservation is described as a comprehensive regulation of forests on water resources through various hydrological processes| and grouped into three services| i.e.| rainfall interception| soil water storage and fresh water provision. On the basis of Beijing's forest resource survey data and mathematical simulations| the function and the economic value of water conservation was estimated. The result showed that| the forest ecosystems of Beijing could intercept approximately 1.43 billion cubic meters of rainfall and 277.82 million cubic meters of soil water under ideal conditions| and supply 286.67 million cubic meters of fresh water| their economic values were estimated to be about 2.77 billion RMB(Chinese Currency| 8.28RMB=US$1)| 2.15 billion RMB| and 315.33 million RMB| respectively. The total economic value of water conservation provided by Beijing's forests was 5.23 billion RMB| and the economic benefit per hectare was equal to 5704 RMB. Furthermore| the spatial variation of water conservation functions and the monetary values of the main forest ecosystems in different locations in Beijing were analyzed| and the effects of water conservation provided by the forest ecosystem on the development of society and economy in Beijing were discussed. This work contributes to the realization and preservation of forest resources in Beijing. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10478,2010,2,3,Water cycle changes over the Mediterranean: a comparison study of a super-high-resolution global model with CMIP3,Water cycle components over the Mediterranean for both a current run (1979-2007) and a future run (2075-2099) are studied with the Japan Meteorological Agency's 20 km grid global climate model. Results are compared with another study using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 ensemble model (hereafter| the Mariotti model). Our results are surprisingly close to Mariotti's. The projected mean annual change rates of precipitation (P) between the future and the current run for sea and land are -11 per cent and -10 per cent| respectively| which are not as high as Mariotti's. Projected changes for evaporation (E) are +9.3 per cent and -3.6 per cent| compared with +7.2 per cent and -8.1 per cent in Mariotti's study| respectively. However| no significant difference in the change in P-E over the sea body was found between these two studies. The increased E over the eastern Mediterranean was found to be higher than that in the western Mediterranean| but the P decrease was lower. The net moisture budget| P-E| shows that the eastern Mediterranean will become even drier than the western Mediterranean. The river model suggests decreasing water inflow to the Mediterranean of approximately 36 per cent (excluding the Nile). 11443,2010,3,4,Water for Haemodialysis and Related Therapies: Recent Standards and Emerging Issues,Dialysis is a well-established and widely used procedure. For a number of years| the focus has been on ensuring that water used in the preparation of dialysis fluid meets the required chemical and microbiological quality and complies with national or international standards which have recently been updated. Continued vigilance is required| in particular when new chemicals such as silver-stabilized hydrogen peroxide and chlorine dioxide are used to prevent growth of Legionella bacteria in hospital water systems| since residues are harmful to patients receiving dialysis. To achieve the required quality| large volumes of water are processed| and a substantial portion is sent to waste via the municipal sewer systems with little attempt to reuse such water on site. In view of concern about global warming and climate change| there is a need to adopt a more environmentally conscious attitude requiring dialysis providers to focus on this aspect of water usage. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG| Basel 488,2010,2,4,Water limitation and plant inter-specific competition reduce rhizosphere-induced C decomposition and plant N uptake,Plants can affect soil organic matter decomposition and mineralization through litter inputs| but also more directly through root-microbial interactions (rhizosphere effects). Depending on resource availability and plant species identity| these rhizosphere effects can be positive or negative. To date| studies of rhizosphere effects have been limited to plant species grown individually. It is unclear how belowground resources and inter-specific interactions among plants may influence rhizosphere effects on soil C decomposition and plant N uptake. In this study| we tested the simple and interactive effects of plant diversity and water availability on rhizosphere-mediated soil C decomposition and plant N uptake. The study was conducted in the greenhouse with five semi-arid grassland species (monocultures and mixtures of all five species) and two water levels (15 and 20% gravimetric soil moisture content). We hypothesized that microbial decomposition and N release would be less in the low compared to high water treatment and less in mixtures compared to monocultures. Rhizosphere effects on soil C decomposition were both positive and negative among the five species when grown in monoculture| although negative effects prevailed by the end of the experiment. When grown in mixture| rhizosphere effects reduced soil C decomposition and plant N uptake compared to monocultures| but only at the low-water level. Our results suggest that when water availability is low| plant species complementarity and selection effects on water and N use can decrease soil C decomposition through rhizosphere effects. Although complementarity and selection effects can increase plant N uptake efficiency| plant N uptake in the mixtures was still lower than expected| most likely because rhizosphere effects reduced N supply in the mixtures more than in the monocultures. Our results indicate that rhizosphere effects on C and N cycling depend on water availability and inter-specific plant interactions. Negative rhizosphere effects on soil C decomposition and N supply in mixtures relative to monocultures of the component species could ultimately increase soil C storage and possibly influence how plant communities in semi-arid grasslands respond to global climate change. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 10890,2010,2,4,Water temperature and stratification depth independently shift cardinal events during plankton spring succession,In deep temperate lakes| the beginning of the growing season is triggered by thermal stratification| which alleviates light limitation of planktonic producers in the surface layer and prevents heat loss to deeper strata. The sequence of subsequent phenological events (phytoplankton spring bloom| grazer peak| clearwater phase) results in part from coupled phytoplankton-grazer interactions. Disentangling the separate| direct effects of correlated climatic drivers (stratification-dependent underwater light climate vs. water temperature) from their indirect effects mediated through trophic feedbacks is impossible using observational field data| which challenges our understanding of global warming effects on seasonal plankton dynamics. We therefore manipulated water temperature and stratification depth independently in experimental field mesocosms containing ambient microplankton and inocula of the resident grazer Daphnia hyalina. Higher light availability in shallower surface layers accelerated primary production| warming accelerated consumption and growth of Daphnia| and both factors speeded up successional dynamics driven by trophic feedbacks. Specifically| phytoplankton peaked and decreased earlier and Daphnia populations increased and peaked earlier at both shallower stratification and higher temperature. The timing of ciliate dynamics was unrelated to both factors. Volumetric peak densities of phytoplankton| ciliates and Daphnia in the surface layer were also unaffected by temperature but declined with stratification depth in parallel with light availability. The latter relationship vanished| however| when population sizes were integrated over the entire water column. Overall our results suggest that| integrated over the entire water column of a deep lake| surface warming and shallower stratification independently speed up spring successional events| whereas the magnitudes of phytoplankton and zooplankton spring peaks are less sensitive to these factors. Therefore| accelerated dynamics under warming need not lead to a trophic mismatch (given similar grazer inocula at the time of stratification). We emphasize that entire water column dynamics must be studied to estimate global warming effects on lake ecosystems. 10523,2010,2,4,WeMOI and NAOi influence on major avalanche activity in the Eastern Pyrenees,Major avalanche episodes registered in the Eastern Pyrenees (north-eastern Iberian Peninsula) are correlated with both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO). The NAO is one of the most important and recurrent patterns of atmospheric circulation variability in the Northern Hemisphere and affects the behaviour of surface temperatures and precipitation in Western Europe. The Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) controls intense precipitation in the eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula. The link between both indices and major avalanche activity is undertaken by applying a cumulative index. A link between avalanche activity and the NAO has been found in Iceland| but it has not been detected in areas closer to the Pyrenees| such as the French Alps. This paper examines the linkage to the NAO in an area further from the centres of the dipole than is the case for Iceland. Results show a significant negative correlation between major avalanche activity in the Eastern Pyrenees and both NAO index (NAOi) and WeMOi| which is even higher with the cumulative NAOi (CNI) and the cumulative WeMOi (CWI). The cumulative index reflects the cumulative effect of snow accumulation in the avalanche starting zones as precipitation is affected by the variations of NAOi and WeMOi. Consequently| the correlation is negative since it has been demonstrated that increased precipitation in the Eastern Pyrenees is linked to negative values of both low frequency patterns. Nevertheless| results from the diverse avalanche forecasting regions in the Eastern Pyrenees suggest a different response of avalanche activity to both indices| confirming the Pyrenees as a complex snow-climate boundary. Lastly| possible changes in avalanche activity in the coming decades may be suggested by the NAO evolution associated with global warming scenarios that are foreseen and the present interannual trend of the WeMOi. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 10732,2010,5,4,What happens when the ocean is overheated? The foraminiferal response across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum at the Alamedilla section (Spain),The global warming and major perturbation of the global carbon cycle that occurred during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) have been investigated in the lower bathyal-upper abyssal Alamedilla section (Spain). Geochemical anomalies and dramatic faunal changes (including the globally recognized extinction event of deep-sea benthic foraminifera and the rapid evolutionary turnover of planktic foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils) are associated with the PETM at Alamedilla. Biotic changes in the plankton and benthos indicate environmental instability similar to 11-14 k.y. before the onset of carbon isotope excursion that marks the Paleocene/Eocene boundary. The reorganization of the planktic ecosystem points to warm and oligotrophic conditions in surface waters during the earliest Eocene| whereas faunal and geochemical data indicate that the extinctions of benthic foraminifera occurred over an interval with a high CaCO(3) content and oxic conditions at the seafloor. The proliferation of disaster taxa (Glomospira spp.) after the extinctions has been related to a potential source of isotopically light carbon in the western Tethys and North Atlantic. Significant changes in foraminiferal test size are documented across the PETM. We suggest that increased temperatures played an important role in benthic foraminiferal test size| increasing their metabolic rates and| consequently| their food requirements. Decreased planktic foraminiferal test size may be related to decreased nutrient availability or surface-water density. However| the differences in test size evolution among different species of both benthic and planktic foraminifera may be related to interspecific competition and ecological adaptations to direct or indirect consequences of the carbon addition during the PETM. 10968,2010,2,4,Whitebark pine vulnerability to climate-driven mountain pine beetle disturbance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem,Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetles (MPB) are occurring throughout the range of this native insect. Episodic outbreaks are a common occurrence in the beetles' primary host| lodgepole pine. Current outbreaks| however| are occurring in habitats where outbreaks either did not previously occur or were limited in scale. Herein| we address widespread| ongoing outbreaks in high-elevation| whitebark pine forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem| where| due to an inhospitable climate| past outbreaks were infrequent and short lived. We address the basic question: are these outbreaks truly unprecedented and a threat to ecosystem continuity? In order to evaluate this question we (1) present evidence that the current outbreak is outside the historic range of variability; (2) examine system resiliency to MPB disturbance based on adaptation to disturbance and host defenses to MPB attack; and (3) investigate the potential domain of attraction to large-scale MPB disturbance based on thermal developmental thresholds| spatial structure of forest types| and the confounding influence of an introduced pathogen. We conclude that the loss of dominant whitebark pine forests| and the ecological services they provide| is likely under continuing climate warming and that new research and strategies are needed to respond to the crisis facing whitebark pine. 11411,2010,3,3,Why microalgal biofuels won't save the internal combustion machine,Proponents of microalgae biofuel technologies often claim that the world demand of liquid fuels| about 5 trillion liters per year| could be supplied by microalgae cultivated on only a few tens of millions of hectares. This perspective reviews this subject and points out that such projections are greatly exaggerated| because (1) the productivities achieved in large-scale commercial microalgae production systems| operated year-round| do not surpass those of irrigated tropical crops; (2) cultivating| harvesting and processing microalgae solely for the production of biofuels is simply too expensive using current or prospective technology; and (3) currently available (limited) data suggest that the energy balance of algal biofuels is very poor. Thus| microalgal biofuels are no panacea for depleting oil or global warming| and are unlikely to save the internal combustion machine. (C) 2009 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons| Ltd 11301,2010,2,2,Why tropical island endemics are acutely susceptible to global change,Tropical islands are species foundries| formed either as a by-product of volcanism| when previously submerged seabed is thrust upwards by tectonics| or when a peninsula is isolated by rising sea level. After colonisation| the geographical isolation and niche vacancies provide the competitive impetus for an evolutionary radiation of distinct species-island endemics. Yet the very attributes which promote speciation in evolutionary time also leave island endemics highly vulnerable to recent and rapid impacts by modern people. Indeed| the majority of documented human-driven extinctions have been exacted upon island endemics. The causes include over-exploitation| invasive species brought by people and destruction of island's naturally constrained habitats. Imminent threats include inundation by rising sea levels and other adaptive pressures related to anthropogenic global warming. We review recent work which underscores the susceptibility of island endemics to the drivers of global change| and suggest a methodological framework under which| we argue| the science and mitigation of island extinctions can be most productively advanced. 11480,2010,2,4,WIND AFFECTS MORPHOLOGY| FUNCTION| AND CHEMISTRY OF EUCALYPT TREE SEEDLINGS,Wind is a powerful abiotic influence on plants that is predicted to increase with global warming. The resulting changes to plant function and interaction with herbivores are likely to have significant ecological| forestry| and agricultural consequences. We used a glasshouse manipulative study to test the effects of wind exposure on a range of morphological| functional| and chemical characteristics of seedlings of Eucalyptus tereticornis| a widespread coastal tree. Chronic wind exposure (6 wk of 3 h d(-1)) resulted in reduced height growth and leaf area| thicker leaf cuticle| slightly higher leaf dry matter| and greater phenolic concentration. Chronic and acute (single 3-h pulse) exposure to wind induced greater variability in minimum epidermal water conductance. The changes that occurred to seedlings show the significance of wind as an active abiotic agent in shaping plants. The changes| particularly if they are maintained or enhanced over time| may alter rates of herbivory and have the potential to lead to cascading ecological consequences that are especially relevant as climate changes. 11037,2010,3,3,Wind power smoothing using fuzzy logic pitch controller and energy capacitor system for improvement Micro-Grid performance in islanding mode,The need of reducing CO(2) emissions in electricity generation field for solving global warming problems has led to increase interest in Micro-Grid (MG) especially the one with renewable sources such as solar and wind generations. Wind speed fluctuations cause high fluctuations in output power of wind turbine which cause fluctuations in fr and voltages of the MG in the islanding mode and originate stability problems. In this study| a new fuzzy logic pitch controller and an energy storage ultra capacitor are proposed and developed to smooth the output power of wind turbine and enhance MG's performance in islanding mode. These two proposed controllers are compared with the conventional PI pitch controller| which is usually used to control wind generation system when the wind speed exceeds a rated value. Obtained results proved that our two proposed strategies are effective for the MG performance improvement during islanding mode. All models and controllers are developed using Matlab (R) Simulink (R) environment. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10831,2010,2,3,Winter climate change: a critical factor for temperate vegetation performance,Winter ecological processes are important drivers of vegetation and ecosystem functioning in temperate ecosystems. There| winter conditions are subject to rapid climate change. The potential loss of a longer-lasting snow cover with implications to other plant-related climate parameters and overwintering strategies make the temperate zone particularly vulnerable to winter climate change. A formalized literature search in the ISI Web of Science shows that plant related research on the effects of winter climate change is generally underrepresented. Temperate regions in particular are rarely studied in this respect| although the few existing studies imply strong effects of winter climate change on species ranges| species compositions| phenology| or frost injury. The generally positive effect of warming on plant survival and production may be counteracted by effects such as an increased frost injury of roots and shoots| an increased insect pest risk| or a disrupted synchrony between plants and pollinators. Based on the literature study| gaps in current knowledge are discussed. Understanding the relative effects of interacting climate parameters| as well as a stronger consideration of short-term events and variability of climatic conditions is urgent. With respect to plant response| it would be particularly worthwhile to account for hidden players such as pathogens| pollinators| herbivores| or fungal partners in mycorrhization. 10563,2010,2,3,Winter intensification of the moist branch of the circulation in simulations of 21st century climate,In this paper| changes in isentropic circulations associated with global warming in the A1B model outputs for the 20th and 21st centuries are analyzed. The changes in the circulations on dry and moist isentropes are quantified through the use of three bulk measures of the circulations: mass transport| entropy transport and effective stratification. The circulation on dry isentropes is expected to weaken due to a reduction of the meridional heat transport and to an increase in stratification. In contrast| the moist branch of the circulation| measured in terms of the difference between the circulations on moist and dry isentropes| strengthens during the winter months. This intensification is characterized not only by an increase in the eddy latent heat transport but also by an increase in the mass transport. This indicate a larger poleward mass flow of warm moist subtropical air into the stormtracks leading to enhanced moist ascent within baroclinic eddies. Citation: Laliberte| F.| and O. Pauluis (2010)| Winter intensification of the moist branch of the circulation in simulations of 21st century climate| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 37| L20707| doi:10.1029/2010GL045007. 10951,2010,3,3,Would methanol formed from CO(2) from the atmosphere give the advantage of hydrogen at lesser cost?,Our energy situation is called precarious because of the frequent changes in reports on the date of Hubert's peak and the danger of oncoming global warming. Further| there is the several decades needed to build a new system of energy production and distribution. This paper describes various likely methods which we could use. It concludes that methanol synthesized from hydrogen and CO(2) removed from the atmosphere allows this substance to be used in our situation with zero net CO(2) results. It would then remove the problem of the cost of storage| transportation and reconversion to electricity which hangs on to the use of hydrogen itself. On the other hand its use would provide| in practice| a "liquid form" of hydrogen. (C) 2010 Professor T. Nejat Veziroglu. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 10925,2010,2,4,Yeast and yeast-like diversity in the southernmost glacier of Europe (Calderone Glacier| Apennines| Italy),The present study reports the characterization of psychrophilic yeast and yeast-like diversity in cold habitats (superficial and deep sediments| ice cores and meltwaters) of the Calderone Glacier (Italy)| which is the southernmost glacier in Europe. After incubation at 4 and 20 degrees C| sediments contained about 102-103 CFU of yeasts g-1. The number of viable yeast cells in ice and meltwaters was several orders of magnitude lower. The concomitant presence of viable bacteria and filamentous fungi has also been observed. In all| 257 yeast strains were isolated and identified by 26S rRNA gene D1/D2 and internal transcribed spacers (1 and 2) sequencing as belonging to 28 ascomycetous and basidiomycetous species of 11 genera (Candida| Cystofilobasidium| Cryptococcus| Dioszegia| Erythrobasidium| Guehomyces| Mastigobasidium| Mrakia| Mrakiella| Rhodotorula and Sporobolomyces). Among them| the species Cryptococcus gastricus accounted for almost 40% of the total isolates. In addition| 12 strains were identified as belonging to the yeast-like species Aureobasidium pullulans and Exophiala dermatitidis| whereas 15 strains| presumably belonging to new species| yet to be described| were also isolated. Results herein reported indicate that the Calderone Glacier| although currently considered a vanishing ice body due to the ongoing global-warming phenomenon| still harbors viable psychrophilic yeast populations. Differences of yeast and yeast-like diversity between the glacier under study and other worldwide cold habitats are also discussed. 535,2010,3,4,Zeolitic imidazolate framework ZIF-7 based molecular sieve membrane for hydrogen separation,Hydrogen-based energy system could address issues related to global climate change| energy security| and local air pollution. Thermally and hydrothermally stable microporous membranes with intrinsic high H(2)/CO(2) selectivity are highly demanded. A novel zeolitic imidazolate framework (ZIF-7) membrane was tested for its gas separation performance. ZIFs are microporous materials and belong to the new class of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs). ZIF-7 is formed by bridging benzimidazolate anions and zinc cations resulting in a sodalite (SOD) topology with a pore size of about 0.3 nm. The ZIF-7 membrane exhibited promising H(2) separation abilities. At 220 degrees C| the H(2) permeance is similar to 4.5 x 10(-8) mol m(-2) s(-1) Pa(-1) and the mixture separation factors for H(2)/CO(2)| H(2)/N(2)| and H(2)/CH(4) are 13.6| 18.0| and 14.0| respectively. As a result of molecular sieving mechanism| the ideal selectivities and mixture separation factors are identical. The permeation of H(2) through the ZIF-7 membrane is highly activated with an apparent activation energy of 11.9 kJ mol(-1). Due to the ultra-hydrophobic properties of ZIF materials| the ZIF-7 membrane also showed excellent hydrothermal stability in the presence of steam. Our results clearly demonstrate that ZIF-7 membranes have an intrinsic high H(2)/CO(2) selectivity and a promising application in hydrogen separation| which is based on its very narrow and well-defined crystal pore structure. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11057,2010,5,3,Zircon dating ties NE Atlantic sill emplacement to initial Eocene global warming,The Earth experienced rapid greenhouse gas induced global warming during the Palaeocene Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). The source of the gas is| however| debated. We have| for the first time| determined the ages of magmatic sills in the Voring Basin offshore Norway. Zircon U-Pb ages of 55.6 +/- 0.3 and 56.3 +/- 0.4 Ma demonstrate that sill emplacement was synchronous with the PETM within small errors. This discovery strengthens the hypothesis that global warming was triggered by rapid release of greenhouse gases generated by heating of organic-rich sediments around intrusions in the NE Atlantic rather than from dissociation of gas hydrates. 10785,2010,2,4,Zooplankton of lakes in the spurs of the Putorana Plateau and adjacent territories (North of Krasnoyarsk Krai),Species composition and parameters of biomass of net plankton were analyzed for four large and 35 small lakes from 10 areas located between 69.5A degrees and 67.5A degrees N and 87A degrees and 92A degrees E that were examined in July-August| 2001 and 2003-2004. In the composition of the first (dominant) and/or second (subdominant) species in the ranged row of the average biomass| the lakes were copepod in 78.8% of cases| in 67.3%| calanoid. The share of biomass of cladocerans in the total biomass of zooplankton exceeded 50% only in 31% of cases. By the frequency of occurrence as dominant or subdominant by biomass the first place is occupied by copepodites calanoid (34.6% of cases)| the second| by sexually mature Heterocope appendiculata (26.9%)| the third| by copepodites cyclopoid (17.3%)| the fourth| by Polyphemus pediculus (15.4%)| the fifth| by Acanthodiaptomus denticornis (13.5%)| the sixth| by Bosmina cf. longispina (11.5%)| the seventh| by Heterocope borealis (9.6%)| the eighth| by Daphnia cf. longispina (7.7% of cases). For the first time in the region 14 species of crustacean zooplankton are given. The known range of some species and subspecies (for example| Chydorus biovatus| Camptocercus fennicus| Ophyoxus gracilis kolymensis| Arctodiaptomus acutilobatus| Acanthrodiaptomus tibetanus) is widened owing to the findings in the studied region. The groups of the areas are more similar in terms of zooplankton north to south than east to west; the number of the cladoceran species and the number of cladoceran lakes grew north to south and east to west| which corresponded to the general change of climate towards more mild north to south for similar altitudes and east to west for different altitudes from mountain areas to the low lands. The comparison of the species lists from different northern regions showed that the species diversity (total number of species) of cladocerans and copepods does not change significantly west to east. Distribution of species and changes in the zooplankton structure are discussed from the point of view of possible influence of the global warming. 11751,2011,3,4,"Give Energy to Your Study": Students Worldwide Gather in Europe To Design Future Materials for Energy Storage and Conversion,Global warming| finite fossil-fuel supplies| and urban pollution rapidly change the landscape of energy research worldwide and our training and education programs must change accordingly. Because of the natural intermittency of many renewable energy sources| there will be a far greater need for advanced electrical energy storage technology. Establishing highly diversified education programs that embrace worldwide scientists in this strategic area of science is of primary importance for bringing newly emerging concepts to fruition and securing our future. Five European universities pooled their efforts to create a specific| integrated| European Master's-level degree program| Materials for Energy Storage and Conversion| which offers high-level education while providing high mobility to students| as well as beneficial knowledge and exposure to relevant industrial settings. 12685,2011,2,4,'Caribbean Creep' Chills Out: Climate Change and Marine Invasive Species,Background: New marine invasions have been recorded in increasing numbers along the world's coasts due in part to the warming of the oceans and the ability of many invasive marine species to tolerate a broader thermal range than native species. Several marine invertebrate species have invaded the U. S. southern and mid-Atlantic coast from the Caribbean and this poleward range expansion has been termed 'Caribbean Creep'. While models have predicted the continued decline of global biodiversity over the next 100 years due to global climate change| few studies have examined the episodic impacts of prolonged cold events that could impact species range expansions. Methodology/Principal Findings: A pronounced cold spell occurred in January 2010 in the U. S. southern and mid-Atlantic coast and resulted in the mortality of several terrestrial and marine species. To experimentally test whether cold-water temperatures may have caused the disappearance of one species of the 'Caribbean Creep' we exposed the non-native crab Petrolisthes armatus to different thermal treatments that mimicked abnormal and severe winter temperatures. Our findings indicate that Petrolisthes armatus cannot tolerate prolonged and extreme cold temperatures (4-6 degrees C) and suggest that aperiodic cold winters may be a critical 'reset' mechanism that will limit the range expansion of other 'Caribbean Creep' species. Conclusions/Significance: We suggest that temperature 'aberrations' such as 'cold snaps' are an important and overlooked part of climate change. These climate fluctuations should be accounted for in future studies and models| particularly with reference to introduced subtropical and tropical species and predictions of both rates of invasion and rates of unidirectional geographic expansion. 12288,2011,4,3,'Home made' model to study the greenhouse effect and global warming,In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed| starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets| by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect| and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of greenhouse effect and their actual ones. It may also be used to predict the average temperature of the Earth surface in the future| depending on the variations of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities. This model can promote an elementary understanding of global warming since it allows a simple formalization of the energy balance for the Earth in the stationary condition| in the presence of greenhouse gases. For these reasons it can be introduced in courses for undergraduate physics students and for teacher preparation. 12573,2011,3,4,2nd Generation biofuels a sure bet? A life cycle assessment of how things could go wrong,Biofuels are heavily debated as to their potential to reduce transport-related greenhouse gas emissions. Life cycle thinking gave rise to formal evaluations of the energy balance of such fuels| which led to the vigorously conducted "corn to ethanol" debates. Just as consensus was building on such evaluations came the "carbon debt" insights| a result of applying consequential Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) backed by advanced economic modeling. Increasingly| hopes have shifted to the 2nd generation biofuels| viewed as a "technological home run". Could this also backfire? We investigate a simple South African case in which there might not be improvements in environmental performance: a sugar mill sells its bagasse| currently used at low efficiency to provide process heat| to an advanced biofuels producer| and buys an equivalent amount of coal without investing in efficiency improvements. Seven scenarios are generated| ranging from the status quo| where no bagasse is diverted| to 100% bagasse diversion| with one scenario including an energy efficiency improvement in the sugar mill. A consequential LCA is applied to the seven scenarios| covering global warming potential (GWP)| non-renewable energy use| aquatic eutrophication and terrestrial acidification. A basic financial analysis of the proposed scenarios shows that they are realistic| with potentially lucrative returns. Results show that diverting bagasse without efficiency improvements from its current use to an ethanol bio-refinery would indeed backfire for all environmental impacts studied. The base case outperforms all the other scenarios| with the 100% bagasse diversion scenario emerging the worst. Investments into energy efficiency are therefore a precondition for diverting cellulosic residues into biofuel production. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12068,2011,2,4,A brown-world cascade in the dung decomposer food web of an alpine meadow: effects of predator interactions and warming,Top-down control has been extensively documented in food webs based on living plants| where predator limitation of herbivores can cascade to facilitate plant growth (the green-world hypothesis)| particularly in grasslands and aquatic systems. Yet the ecosystem role of predators in detrital food webs is less explored| as is the potential effect of climate warming on detritus-based communities. We here show that predators have a "brown-world" role in decomposer communities via a cascading top-down control on plant growth| based on the results of an experiment that factorially manipulated presence and size of two predator species as well as temperature (warmed vs. unwarmed). The inclusion of predatory beetles significantly decreased abundance of coprophagous beetles and thus the rate of dung decomposition and productivity of plants growing surrounding the dung. Moreover| the magnitude of these decreases differed between predator species and| for dung loss| was temperature dependent. At ambient temperature| the larger predators tended to more strongly influence the dung loss rate than did the smaller predators; when both predators were present| the dung loss rate was higher relative to the treatments with the smaller predators but comparable to those with the larger ones| suggesting an antagonistic effect of predator interaction. However| warming substantially reduced dung decomposition rates and eliminated the effects of predation on dung decomposition. Although warming substantially decreased dung loss rates| warming only modestly reduced primary productivity. Consistent with these results| a second experiment exploring the influence of the two predator species and warming on dung loss over time revealed that predatory beetles significantly decreased the abundance of coprophagous beetles| which was positively correlated with dung loss rates. Moreover| experimental warming decreased the water content of dung and hence the survival of coprophagous beetles. These results confirm that the "brown-world" effect of predator beetles was due to cascading top-down control through coprophagous beetles to nutrient cycling and primary productivity. Our results also highlight potentially counterintuitive effects of climate warming. For example| global warming might significantly decrease animal-mediated decomposition of organic matter and recycling of nutrients in a future warmed world. 11809,2011,3,4,A Comparative Environmental Life-Cycle Analysis for Removing Phosphorus from Wastewater: Biological versus Physical/Chemical Processes,Phosphorus can be removed from wastewater biologically| chemically| or through a combination of the two. In this study| we applied environmental life-cycle assessment to develop a metric with which decision-makers can compare processes. Two phosphorus-removal scenarios were contrasted-one based on a desktop-level design and one based on full-scale operational data. To achieve 0.5 mg/L effluent phosphorus (desktop design)| a biological-only process would incur 5.2% less effect on global warming potential| as contrasted with a chemical-only process. At an effluent quality of 0.1 mg/L (full-scale facilities)| where a biological process augmented with chemicals was contrasted with a chemical-only process| the relative gap increases to 13.2%. As chemical usage increased| the adverse environmental effect of chemical treatment only increased. The results of this study suggest that best practices would center phosphorus removal first on the biological process| with chemical processes added only as necessary. Water Environ. Res.| 83| 750 (2011). 12094,2011,3,3,A comparative life cycle assessment of marine fuels: liquefied natural gas and three other fossil fuels,Air emissions from shipping have received attention in recent years and the shipping industry is striving for solutions to reduce their emissions and to comply with stricter regulations. Strategies to reduce emissions can consist of a fuel switch| engine changes| or end-of-pipe technologies| but they do not necessarily imply reduced life cycle emissions. The present paper assesses the environmental performance of marine fuels from well-to-propeller using life cycle assessment (LCA). Four fossil fuels are compared: heavy fuel oil (HFO)| marine gas oil| gas-to-liquid (GTL) fuel| and liquefied natural gas (LNG)| combined with two exhaust abatement techniques: open-loop scrubber and selective catalytic reduction. LNG and other alternatives that comply with the SECA 2015 and Tier III NO(x) requirements give decreased acidification and eutrophication potentials with 78-90 per cent in a life cycle perspective compared with HFO. In contrast| the use of LNG does not decrease the global warming potential by more than 8-20 per cent| the amount depending mainly on the magnitude of the methane slip from the gas engine. None of the fossil fuels scrutinized here would decrease the greenhouse gas emissions significantly from a life cycle perspective. The study supports the need for LCA when evaluating the environmental impact of a fuel change| e.g. it is found that the highest global warming potential during the whole life cycle is connected to the alternatives with GTL fuel. 11662,2011,4,4,A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period| Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model,To compare differences among the Medieval Warm Period (MWP)| Little Ice Age (LIA)| and 20th century global warming (20CW)| six sets of transient and equilibrium simulations were generated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. This model was developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics| Institute of Atmospheric Physics| Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results indicate that MWP warming is evident on a global scale| except for at mid-latitudes of the North Pacific. However| the magnitude of the warming is weaker than that in the 20th century. The warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is stronger than that in the Southern Hemisphere. The LIA cooling is also evident on a global scale| with a strong cooling over the high Eurasian continent| while the cooling center is over the Arctic domain. Both the MWP and the 20CW experiments exhibit the strongest warming anomalies in the middle troposphere around 200-300 hPa| but the cooling center of the LIA experiment is seen in the polar surface of the Northern Hemisphere. A comparison of model simulation against the reconstruction indicates that model's performance in simulating the surface air temperature changes during the warm periods is better than that during the cold periods. The consistencies between model and reconstruction in lower latitudes are better than those in high latitudes. Comparison of the inter-annual variability mode of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall during the MWP| LIA and 20CW reveals a similar rainfall anomalies pattern. However| the time spectra of the principal component during the three typical periods of the last millennium are different| and the quasi-biannual oscillation is more evident during the two warm periods. At a centennial time scale| the external mode of the EASM variability driven by the changes of effective solar radiation is determined by the changes of large scale land-sea thermal contrast. The rainfall anomalies over the east of 110 E exhibit a meridional homogeneous change pattern| which is different from the meridional out-of-phase change of rainfall anomalies associated with the internal mode. 12348,2011,3,3,A comprehensive overview of hybrid electric vehicle: Powertrain configurations| powertrain control techniques and electronic control units,The studies for hybrid electrical vehicle (HEV) have attracted considerable attention because of the necessity of developing alternative methods to generate energy for vehicles due to limited fuel based energy| global warming and exhaust emission limits in the last century. HEV incorporates internal composition engine| electric machines and power electronic equipments. In this study| overview of HEVs with a focus on hybrid configurations| energy management strategies and electronic control units are presented. Advantages and disadvantages of each configuration are clearly emphasized. The existing powertrain control techniques for HEVs are classified and comprehensively described. Electronic control units used in HEV configuration are also elaborated. The latest trends and technological challenges in the near future for HEVs are discussed. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3393,2011,3,3,A developed asymmetric PVDF hollow fiber membrane structure for CO(2) absorption,Carbon dioxide (CO(2))| the main greenhouse gas| has been associated with global climate change. Therefore| it is important to develop technologies to mitigate this issue. In present study| porous hydrophobic polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) hollow fiber membranes with developed structure for CO(2) absorption were prepared via a wet spinning process. The prepared membranes were characterized in terms of morphology examination| gas permeability| critical water entry pressure (CER(W)) and mass transfer resistance. From the morphology examination| the membrane showed an almost sponge-like structure with inner skinless layer and ultra-thin outer skin layer. Results of gas permeation test indicated that the membrane possess very small mean pore size (3.96 nm) with high surface porosity. The CO(2) absorption experiment demonstrated a significant improvement in the CO(2) flux of the prepared PVDF membrane compared to the commercial porous polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) hollow fiber membrane. At the absorbent flow rate of 200 ml/min| CO(2) flux of the PVDF membrane (4.10 x 10(-4) mol/m(2) s) was approximately 68% higher than the CO(2) flux of the PTFE membrane. In addition| the results indicated that an approximate 25% CO(2) flux reduction was gradually occurred at initial 26h| then the CO(2) flux maintained constant over 140h of the operation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11994,2011,2,4,A Dynamical Interpretation of the Poleward Shift of the Jet Streams in Global Warming Scenarios,The role played by enhanced upper-tropospheric baroclinicity in the poleward shift of the jet streams in global warming scenarios is investigated. Major differences between the twentieth-and twenty-first-century simulations are first detailed using two coupled climate model outputs. There is a poleward shift of the eddy-driven jets| an increase in intensity and poleward shift of the storm tracks| a strengthening of the upper-tropospheric baroclinicity| and an increase in the eddy length scale. These properties are more obvious in the Southern Hemisphere. A strengthening of the poleward eddy momentum fluxes and a relative decrease in frequency of cyclonic wave breaking compared to anticyclonic wave breaking events is also observed. Then| baroclinic instability in the three-level quasigeostrophic model is studied analytically and offers a simple explanation for the increased eddy spatial scale. It is shown that if the potential vorticity gradient changes its sign below the midlevel (i.e.| if the critical level is located in the lower troposphere as in the real atmosphere)| long and short wavelengths become respectively more and less unstable when the upper-tropospheric baroclinicity is increased. Finally| a simple dry atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) is used to confirm the key role played by the upper-level baroclinicity by employing a normal-mode approach and long-term simulations forced by a temperature relaxation. The eddy length scale is shown to largely determine the nature of the breaking: long (short) wavelengths break more anticyclonically (cyclonically). When the upper-tropospheric baroclinicity is reinforced| long wavelengths become more unstable| break more strongly anticyclonically| and push the jet more poleward. Short wavelengths being less unstable| they are less efficient in pushing the jet equatorward. This provides an interpretation for the increased poleward eddy momentum fluxes and thus the poleward shift of the eddy-driven jets. 12322,2011,3,2,A feasibility study of hybrid wind power systems for remote communities,Global warming| climate change and the recent global financial crisis have emphasised the need for reducing carbon emissions whilst also ensuring economic feasibility. This study addresses this topic by investigating the technical and economic feasibility of replacing diesel power generation with hybrid wind power systems in remote communities. For this purpose| the economic| technical and environmental characteristics of eight different hybrid wind power systems were established and compared in respect to their performance in the isolated community of French Island (Victoria| Australia). The results obtained in this study demonstrated the economic and environmental superiority of the hybrid wind-diesel-battery system over all other systems studied in this project. This system was found to have the lowest net present cost and cost per kWh among the modelled systems. Furthermore| the results clearly indicated that hybrid wind power systems are| in general| a feasible and preferable alternative to diesel power generation on the French Island. The research methodology and procedure that were developed in this project can be used to investigate and identify the most viable hybrid power system for other remote communities based on their specific environmental| social and economic circumstances. Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12062,2011,3,3,A Forecast of Effective Global Warming Countermeasures for the Residential Sector in China for the year 2050,Energy consumption in the Chinese residential sector is increasing quickly. In this study| we developed a Micro-model to forecast residential CO(2) emissions. The model outputs support decision making for appropriate CO(2) emission reduction goals. First| for Chinese urban residential buildings| we developed a CO(2) emissions forecast model for 2050 taking into account lifestyle changes and Global Warming countermeasures. Second| we used the model to estimate the CO(2) reduction potential of both residential and electrical countermeasures. Compared to the business as usual (BaU) scenario| implementation of residential countermeasures achieved 38%| 24% and 23% emissions reductions for Beijing| Shanghai and Hong Kong respectively. After combining them with the implementation of electrical countermeasures the reduction rates rose to 60%. We also compared the countermeasures to see which could bring the greatest emissions reduction. For Beijing| improvement of insulation was most efficient. For Shanghai and Hong Kong| COP increase of hot water supply appears to be the most efficient countermeasure. Through this study we were able to model global warming countermeasures for the Chinese residential sector| and found that reducing CO(2) emissions by 60% from BaU is an achievable goal. 12165,2011,4,4,A framework for assessing threats and benefits to species responding to climate change,P>1. Current national and international frameworks for assessing threats to species have not been developed in the context of climate change| and are not framed in a way that recognises new opportunities that arise from climate change. 2. The framework presented here separates the threats and benefits of climate change for individual species. Threat is assessed by the level of climate-related decline within a species' recently occupied (e.g. pre-1970s) historical distribution| based on observed (e.g. repeat census) and/or projected changes (e.g. modelled bioclimate space). Benefits are assessed in terms of observed and/or projected increases outside the recently occupied historical range. 3. Exacerbating factors (e.g. small population size| low dispersal capacity) that might increase levels of threat or limit expansion in response to climate change are taken into consideration within the framework. Protocols are also used to identify levels of confidence (and hence research and/or monitoring needs) in each species' assessment. 4. Observed and projected changes are combined into single measures of expected decline and increase| together with associated measures of confidence. We weight risk classifications towards information that is most certain. Each species is then placed in one of six categories (high risk| medium risk| limited impact| equivalent risks & benefits| medium benefit| high benefit) reflecting whether climate change is expected (or has been observed) to cause net declines or increases in the region considered| based on the balance of benefits and threats. 5. We illustrate the feasibility of using the framework by applying it to (i) all British butterflies (N = 58 species) and (ii) an additional sample of British species: 18 species of plants| bats| birds and beetles. 6. Synthesis. Our framework assesses net declines and increases associated with climate change| for individual species. It could be applied at any scale (regional| continental or global distributions of species)| and complements existing conservation assessment protocols such as red-listing. Using observed and projected population and/or range data| it is feasible to carry out systematic conservation status assessments that inform the development of monitoring| adaptation measures and conservation management planning for species that are responding to climate change. 12208,2011,3,3,A Fully Flexible Valve Actuation System for Internal Combustion Engines,The automotive industry has been under continued pressure to improve fuel efficiency because of air pollution| global warming| and rising gasoline prices. One technology to address this need is electronic valve timing. It promises to achieve fuel savings of 10%-15% by reducing pumping losses| introducing cylinder deactivation| and enabling new combustion strategies| like homogeneous charge compression ignition. To date| valve actuators for this application primarily rely on resonant spring arrangements to achieve the necessary dynamics. This leads to a fixed amplitude of the valve trajectory and only allows for variable valve timing. In this paper| a fully flexible valve actuation system for intake valves is introduced that provides variable lift in addition to variable timing| without reducing valve dynamics or energy efficiency. Optimization procedures for the mechanical system| the servo motor selection| and the valve trajectory are presented. The combined effect of these optimizations leads to valve accelerations that are an order of magnitude higher than conventional electric servo systems. Simulations and an experimental test bed are used to validate the system performance. A comparison with other electronic valve actuation systems confirms the excellent performance of this approach. 12434,2011,4,3,A fuzzy-neural approach for global CO2 concentration forecasting,The global CO2 concentration is considered to be one of the most important causes of global warming that must be closely monitored| accurately forecasted| and controlled as good as possible. To accurately forecast the global CO2 concentration| a hybrid fuzzy linear regression (FLR) and back propagation network (BPN) approach is proposed in this study. In this proposed approach| multiple experts construct their own FLR equations from various viewpoints to forecast future global CO2 concentrations. Each FLR equation can be converted into two equivalent nonlinear programming problems to be solved. To combine these fuzzy forecasts| a two-step aggregation mechanism is applied. At the first step| fuzzy intersection is applied to combine the fuzzy global CO2 concentration forecasts into a polygon-shaped fuzzy number| in order to improve the precision. After that| a BPN is constructed to defuzzify the polygon-shaped fuzzy number and to generate a representative/crisp value| so as to enhance the accuracy. Some historical data on global CO2 concentrations were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. According to the experimental results| the proposed methodology improved both the precision and the accuracy of forecasting the global CO2 concentration by 28% and 91%| respectively. 12753,2011,3,2,A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions,Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change| the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation| extrapolating the HDI| and using three population scenarios| the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained| we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular| 300 Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20 % to 30 % of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2 degrees C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2 degrees C target after a particular development threshold is reached. For example| in each time step of five years| countries with an HDI of 0.85 would need to reduce their per capita emissions by approx. 17% and countries with an HDI of 0.9 by 33 %. Under this approach| global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100 Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2 degrees C. 11964,2011,5,3,A hydrothermal origin for isotopically anomalous cap dolostone cements from south China,The release of methane into the atmosphere through destabilization of clathrates is a positive feedback mechanism capable of amplifying global warming trends that may have operated several times in the geological past(1-3). Such methane release is a hypothesized cause or amplifier for one of the most drastic global warming events in Earth history| the end of the Marinoan 'snowball Earth' ice age| similar to 635 Myr ago(4-7). A key piece of evidence supporting this hypothesis is the occurrence of exceptionally depleted carbon isotope signatures (delta(13)C(PDB) down to -48 parts per thousand; ref. 8) in post-glacial cap dolostones (that is| dolostone overlying glacial deposits) from south China; these signatures have been interpreted as products of methane oxidation at the time of deposition(5|6|8). Here we show| on the basis of carbonate clumped isotope thermometry| (87)Sr/(86)Sr isotope ratios| trace element content and clay mineral evidence| that carbonates bearing the (13)C-depleted signatures crystallized more than 1.6 Myr after deposition of the cap dolostone. Our results indicate that highly (13)C-depleted carbonate cements grew from hydrothermal fluids and suggest that their carbon isotope signatures are a consequence of thermogenic methane oxidation at depth. This finding not only negates carbon isotope evidence for methane release during Marinoan deglaciation in south China| but also eliminates the only known occurrence of a Precambrian sedimentary carbonate with highly (13)C-depleted signatures related to methane oxidation in a seep environment. We propose that the capacity to form highly (13)C-depleted seep carbonates| through biogenic anaeorobic oxidation of methane using sulphate| was limited in the Precambrian period by low sulphate concentrations in sea water(9). As a consequence| although clathrate destabilization may or may not have had a role in the exit from the 'snowball' state| it would not have left extreme carbon isotope signals in cap dolostones. 11826,2011,2,3,A life cycle approach to the management of household food waste - A Swedish full-scale case study,Environmental impacts from incineration| decentralised composting and centralised anaerobic digestion of solid organic household waste are compared using the EASEWASTE LCA-tool. The comparison is based on a full scale case study in southern Sweden and used input-data related to aspects such as source-separation behaviour| transport distances| etc. are site-specific. Results show that biological treatment methods - both anaerobic and aerobic| result in net avoidance of GHG-emissions| but give a larger contribution both to nutrient enrichment and acidification when compared to incineration. Results are to a high degree dependent on energy substitution and emissions during biological processes. It was seen that if it is assumed that produced biogas substitute electricity based on Danish coal power| this is preferable before use of biogas as car fuel. Use of biogas for Danish electricity substitution was also determined to be more beneficial compared to incineration of organic household waste. This is a result mainly of the use of plastic bags in the incineration alternative (compared to paper bags in the anaerobic) and the use of biofertiliser (digestate) from anaerobic treatment as substitution of chemical fertilisers used in an incineration alternative. Net impact related to GWP from the management chain varies from a contribution of 2.6 kg CO(2)-eq/household and year if incineration is utilised| to an avoidance of 5.6 kg CO(2)-eq/household and year if choosing anaerobic digestion and using produced biogas as car fuel. Impacts are often dependent on processes allocated far from the control of local decision-makers| indicating the importance of a holistic approach and extended collaboration between agents in the waste management chain. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12791,2011,3,3,A life cycle assessment of end-of-life computer monitor management in the Seattle metropolitan region,A life cycle assessment was performed on the management of waste computer monitors from King| Pierce| Snohomish| and Kitsap counties in Washington State considering four options for the final destination of the monitors; reuse| recycling| sanitary landfilling| or hazardous waste landfilling. The system was interpreted in two ways; comparing the disposal of a single cathode ray tube (CRT) and liquid crystal display (LCD) monitor and the expected regional change in monitor disposals between 2008 and 2010. The results were separated into two scenarios| one in which credit was given for the avoidance of primary material production in response to the generation of recyclables and one where credit was not given. The effect of avoiding primary material production was large enough to change the impact assessment results from a system that consumed energy| contributed to global warming| and generated air emissions to one that produced energy| reduced global warming| and was a sink of air emissions. LCD monitor disposal had lower impacts than CRT monitor disposal in all impact categories except for the management of mercury. This translates into a reduction of the impact or an increase in the benefit for each impact category| except the management of mercury| for the system from 2008 to 2010 due to changing composition of the monitor disposal stream from CRT to LCD technology. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12332,2011,3,3,A life cycle assessment of injectable drug primary packaging: comparing the traditional process in glass vials with the closed vial technology (polymer vials),Purpose This study compares environmental impacts of two primary packaging alternatives used for injectable drugs: the traditional method based on glass vials and the method developed by Aseptic Technologies based on polymer vials. A critical review by an external LCA expert was made. Methods The boundaries of the systems include the packaging production| the product assembly| the filling process| the distribution and the packaging end-of-life by incineration. The study was made in accordance with the international standards ISO 14040 and ISO 14044. Some data were obtained in the scientific literature or by interview with packaging producers. Ecoinvent databases were also used. The LCA study was made using two methodologies: IMPACT 2002+ and ReCiPe. Some sensibility analyses were performed on different points of uncertainty both on method and on systems (polymer vial body and transport conditions). Results and discussion Results show an environmental gain using a polymer vial over glass. The impact is reduced by 23% for global warming| 25% for primary energy and 32% for respiratory inorganics. For each production step| the environmental impact of both technologies is nearly the same except for the material production| the filling step and the transportation of the finished goods. The production of the polymer vials| made of fuel| leads to a more important environmental impact| especially concerning global warming and primary energy. On the contrary| the two others steps| i.e. filling and transport of the finished goods are more favourable for the polymer vials. This technology allows the elimination of preparation and sterilisation steps which are highly energy consuming and mandatory in the case of the glass vials filling which are supplied unclean and unsterile. The major source of energy consumption comes from water heating| in order to clean the glass vial components. In addition| the filling process| made with a needle through the cork followed by laser re-sealing| is strongly simplified with additional beneficial impact as reduction of energy consumption and pollutants emissions. The transportation step has shown a more positive impact especially when exported over long distance. The sensitivity analyses show that the hypotheses made in both scenarios are rather conservative. Conclusions The life cycle assessment methodology has been successfully applied to both systems of production| filling| distribution and end-of-life of vials for injectable drugs. For identical disclosers| the polymer vials system has lower environmental impacts than the glass vials system. 11979,2011,4,3,A mathematical model of atmospheric retention of man-made CO(2) emissions,Rust and Thijsse have previously shown that changes in global annual average temperature anomalies T(t(i)) compiled by the Climatic Research Unit vary linearly with atmospheric CO(2) concentrations c(t(i)). The c(t(i)) can be related to man-made CO(2) emissions F(t(i)) by a linear regression model whose solution vector gives the unknown retention fractions gamma(t(i)) of the F(t(i)) in the atmosphere. Gaps in the c(t(i)) record make the system underdetermined| but the constraints 0 <= gamma(t(i)) <= 1 make estimation tractable. The gamma(t(i)) are estimated by two methods: (1) assuming a finite harmonic expansion for gamma(t)| and (2) using a constrained least squares algorithm to compute average values of gamma(t) on suitably chosen time subintervals. The final result is an estimate of gamma(t) with enough accuracy to establish the connection between emissions from fossil fuel use and land use changes and increases in global average annual temperature anomalies. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of IMACS. 3323,2011,4,3,A method for calculating the variance and confidence intervals for tree biomass estimates obtained from allometric equations,The need for accurate quantification of the amount of carbon stored in the environment has never been greater. Carbon sequestration has become a vital component of the battle against global climate change| and monitoring and quantifying this process are major challenges for policymakers. Plant allometric equations allow managers and scientists to quantify the biomass contained in a tree without cutting it down| and therefore can play a pivotal role in measuring carbon sequestration in forests and savannahs. These equations have been available since the beginning of the 20th century| but their usefulness depends on the ability to estimate the error associated with the equations - something which has received scant attention in the past. This paper provides a method based on the theory of linear regression and the lognormal distribution to derive confidence limits for estimates of biomass derived from plant allometric equations. Allometric equations for several southern African savannah species are provided| as well as the parameters and equations required to calculate the confidence intervals. This method was applied to data collected from a sampling campaign carried out in a savannah landscape at the Skukuza flux site| Kruger National Park| South Africa. Here the error was 10% of the total site biomass for the woody biomass and 2% for the leaf biomass. When the data were split into individual plots and used to estimate site biomass (as would occur in most sampling schemes) the error increased to 16% and 12% of the woody and leaf biomasses| respectively| as the sampling errors were added to the errors in the allometric equation. These methods can be used in any discipline that applies allometric equations| such as health sciences and animal physiology. 12014,2011,4,4,A methodological note on the making of causal statements in the debate on anthropogenic global warming,At best| the empirical evidence for human impact on climate change| more specifically| the anthropogenic global warming (AGW)| is based on correlational research. That is| no experiment has been carried out that confirms or falsifies the causal hypothesis put forward by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that anthropogenic increasing of green house gas concentrations very likely causes increasing of the (mean) global temperature. In this article| we point out the major weaknesses of correlational research in assessing causal hypotheses. We further point out that the AGW hypothesis is in need of potential falsifiers in the Popperian (neopositivistic) sense. Some directions for future research on the formulation of such falsifiers in causal research are discussed. Of course| failure to find falsifying evidence in empirical climate data will render the AWG hypothesis much stronger. 11577,2011,5,4,A model for orbital pacing of methane hydrate destabilization during the Palaeogene,A series of transient global warming events(1|2) occurred during the late Palaeocene and early Eocene| about 59 to 50 million years ago. The events| although variable in magnitude| were apparently paced by orbital cycles(2-4) and linked to massive perturbations of the global carbon cycle(5|6). However| a causal link between orbital changes in insolation and the carbon cycle has yet to be established for this time period. Here we present a series of coupled climate model simulations that demonstrate that orbitally induced changes in ocean circulation and intermediate water temperature can trigger the destabilization of methane hydrates. We then use a simple threshold model to show that progressive global warming over millions of years| in combination with the increasing tendency of the ocean to remain in a more stagnant state| can explain the decreasing magnitude and increasing frequency of hyperthermal events throughout the early Eocene. Our work shows that nonlinear interactions between climate and the carbon cycle can modulate the effect of orbital variations| in this case producing transient global warming events with varying timing and magnitude. 12146,2011,3,2,A Multidisciplinary| Science-Based Approach to the Economics of Climate Change,Economic analyses of environmental mitigation and other interdisciplinary public policy issues can be much more useful if they critically examine what other disciplines have to say| insist on using the most relevant observational data and the scientific method| and examine lower cost alternatives to the change proposed. These general principles are illustrated by applying them to the case of climate change mitigation| one of the most interdisciplinary of public policy issues. The analysis shows how use of these principles leads to quite different conclusions than those of most previous such economic analyses| as follows: The economic benefits of reducing CO(2) emissions may be about two orders of magnitude less than those estimated by most economists because the climate sensitivity factor (CSF) is much lower than assumed by the United Nations because feedback is negative rather than positive and the effects of CO(2) emissions reductions on atmospheric CO(2) appear to be short rather than long lasting. The costs of CO(2) emissions reductions are very much higher than usually estimated because of technological and implementation problems recently identified. Geoengineering such as solar radiation management is a controversial alternative to CO(2) emissions reductions that offers opportunities to greatly decrease these large costs| change global temperatures with far greater assurance of success| and eliminate the possibility of low probability| high consequence risks of rising temperatures| but has been largely ignored by economists. CO(2) emissions reductions are economically unattractive since the very modest benefits remaining after the corrections for the above effects are quite unlikely to economically justify the much higher costs unless much lower cost geoengineering is used. The risk of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming appears to be so low that it is not currently worth doing anything to try to control it| including geoengineering. 12468,2011,2,4,A multisystem climate change adaptation approach for water sustainability in regional Australia,Climate change represents the possibility of losing the quality of the existing ecosystems around the world. To manage such consequences| dedicated actions for resilience are needed and the process of adaptation is the key that has to be carried out at a regional level. The challenge at this level is not only to assess vulnerabilities and risks to each ecosystem| but also to develop policies to adapt so as to achieve sustainability. In this paper| we focus on the ecosystem of water and study the different impacts on it from the perspective of regional Australia. We then propose a digital ecosystem-based architecture in a multisystem approach| which can be utilised for the process of water sustainability adaptation in regional Australia. 12193,2011,3,3,A new method for assessing CO(2)-emissions from container terminals: a promising approach applied in Rotterdam,At present| the notion is generally accepted that societies have to combat climate change. The reduction of CO(2)-emissions| an important cause for global warming| has become a priority| and consequently there is increasing pressure on governments and industries to come forward with initiatives to reduce CO(2)-emissions. This is highly relevant for the transport sector| as the share of transportation is still increasing| while other sectors are reducing their CO(2)-footprint. The main purpose of this paper is to present a methodology to analyse the CO(2)-emissions from container terminals| illustrated by the Port of Rotterdam. The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly| the development of a methodology to analyse and gain a better understanding of the CO(2)-emissions by container terminals in port areas is described. Secondly| the most effective solutions to reduce CO(2)-emissions by container terminals in port areas are identified. The study provides insight into the processes of container transshipment at the terminals and the contribution of these processes to the CO(2)-emissions of the container terminals. Using these insights| potential solutions to reduce the CO(2) at the terminals are identified and policy proposals are made for the operators of existing terminals and for governments. The most effective measure for CO(2) reduction is undoubtedly the adaptation of the terminal layout as in the example of the Rotterdam Shortsea Terminal. This makes it possible to reduce the CO(2)-emissions of the current terminals by nearly 70 per cent. The other perspective is the incorporation of mixing 30 per cent biofuels with the presently used diesel. This results in a reduction of CO(2)-emissions by between 13 and 26 per cent per terminal and a reduction of the emissions of the total container sector by 21 per cent. On the basis of these findings| concrete recommendations are made to reducing CO(2)-emissions at container terminals. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3310,2011,4,2,A New Method for the Comparison of Trend Data with an Application to Water Vapor,Global total column water vapor trends have been derived from both the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) and the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) satellite data and from globally distributed radiosonde measurements| archived and quality controlled by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The control of atmospheric water vapor amount by the hydrological cycle plays an important role in determining surface temperature and its response to the increase in man-made greenhouse effect. As a result of its strong infrared absorption| water vapor is the most important naturally occurring greenhouse gas. Without water vapor| the earth surface temperature would be about 20 K lower| making the evolution of life| as we know it| impossible. The monitoring of water vapor and its evolution in time is therefore of utmost importance for our understanding of global climate change. Comparisons of trends derived from independent water vapor measurements from satellite and radiosondes facilitate the assessment of the significance of the observed changes in water vapor. In this manuscript| the authors have compared observed water vapor change and trends| derived from independent instruments| and assessed the statistical significance of their differences. This study deals with an example of the Behrens-Fisher problem| namely| the comparison of samples with different means and different standard deviations| applied to trends from time series. Initially the Behrens-Fisher problem for the derivation of the consolidated change and trends is solved using standard (frequentist) hypothesis testing by performing the Welch test. Second| a Bayesian model selection is applied to solve the Behrens-Fisher problem by integrating the posterior probabilities numerically by using the algorithm Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DEMC). Additionally| an analytical approximative solution of the Bayesian posterior probabilities is derived by means of a quadratic Taylor series expansion applied in a computationally efficient manner to large datasets. The two statistical methods used in the study yield similar results for the comparison of the water vapor changes and trends from the different measurements| yielding a consolidated and consistent behavior. 3405,2011,4,4,A New Single-Filter Method for Analyzing Coastal Aerosol Production and Links to Meteorology,Aerosols are known to influence the climate system in a range of ways; they affect radiation budgets| cloud formation and circulation patterns| and contribute to local biogeochemical cycling and ecology. Despite this recognized role for marine aerosol| however| recent research has emphasized the impact of global climate change on coastal environments rather than the other way around. This occurs in part because most methods for sampling marine aerosol are expensive and studies tend to occur only on specialized marine stations and ocean-crossing research vessels. This project tests a new method for aerosol sampling| specifically designed for use in local studies of coastal environments and costing little to set up. It also reports the results of a pilot study in Alderney (Channel Islands) where changes in both aerosol abundance and aerosol composition| including fractionation effects| were observed using the new method and linked to local meteorological conditions. 12053,2011,5,4,A New Zealand record of sea level rise and environmental change during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,The global warming associated with the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) ca. 55.5 Myr ago is the most dramatic identified short-term temperature increase of the Cenozoic. One direct consequence of a warming world is a rise in sea level| due primarily to the thermal expansion of water as oceans warmed. The Kumara-2 core| South Island| New Zealand| spans the Paleocene/Eocene transition and provides a rare southern hemisphere continental margin record of the PETM. Lithology| palynology and compound-specific stable isotope compositions of higher plant leaf wax n-alkanes reveal a 4.85 m PETM and a carbon isotope excursion (CIE) of ca. -4.5%.| larger than the -2.5 to -3.5%. CIEs generally recorded by deep sea foraminifera. There is a shift from a terrestrial to a marine| potentially anoxic| sedimentary depositional environment at the base of the PETM| interpreted as being the result of a local sea level rise. Coincident with the onset of the CIE is the appearance of pollen associated with thermophilic conditions and the development of Nypa mangrove swamps. Moreover| there is a reorganisation of the angiosperm pollen assemblage during the PETM| and an initial increase in fern spores and decrease in gymnosperms. Crucially| all of these changes occur below the horizon characterised by the most negative delta(13)C values| suggesting that: 1) the recorded negative excursion of 4.5% may indeed reflect the shift in atmospheric CO(2) isotopic composition; and 2) that the large input of (13)C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system was not geologically instantaneous| with at least some of the added carbon lagging warming| sea level rise and vegetation change. Furthermore| compound-specific hydrogen isotope analyses show a large degree of variability both directly before and during the CIE| suggesting that the PETM in New Zealand was characterised by complex and transient changes in the hydrological regime| similar to those reported in North America| the Arctic and Eastern Africa. Thus| the new PETM record from Kumara-2 reveals local climatic and biotic responses| driven by a combination of global warming and the consequential change in local depositional environment induced by sea level rise. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12635,2011,3,2,A novel paradigm in greenhouse gas mitigation,The ultimate chemical fate of the conventional fossil fuel combustion is always CO2 and H2O| two well-known greenhouse gases responsible for contributing considerably to the global warming. We propose a radically new concept where CO2 and H2O are converted into carbon monoxide and hydrogen (individually) at one hand and into syngas (if present together; a more likely scenario) under mild experimental conditions. The products then become practical feeds for generating clean electric power via solid oxide fuel cells. Syngas is also an ideal precursor for the manufacturing of scores of valuable organic compounds| including synthetic fuels by FischerTropsch process. Thus| the technique promotes beneficiation rather than sequestration and storagecurrently the most widely accepted option for addressing the issue of mitigating the CO2-related greenhouse gas emission. The process uses either a ferrous metal or its oxide for the target-specific conversion. In addition to being inexpensive and readily available commodities| the oxide| in particular| happens to be an industrial waste as well; most of it is landfill destined. Furthermore| the two greenhouse gases are reduced into ready-to-use fuel precursors| and the solid reactants are transformed into a component from which ceramic magnets (ferrites) could be manufactured. Thus| the concept is innovative because it not only creates valuable clean energy precursors| but it does so while reducing the impact of yet another industrial and ecological pollutant. (c) 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog| 2010 11615,2011,3,4,A parametric study of electrocoagulation as a recovery process of marine microalgae for biodiesel production,Microalgal biomass as feedstock for biofuel production is rapidly gaining appreciation in response to the increasing petroleum prices and the upsurge in global warming concerns. However| the process of creating concentrated biomass from microalgal cultures is limited by ineffective dewatering procedures. The economics of existing culture clarification unit operations make the process of creating biomass from microalgae unattractive for biofuel development. This work involves the comparison of the removal efficiency (recovery) of two marine microalgae species Chlorococcum sp. and Tetraselmis sp. by electrocoagulation (EC)| a technique that has not been thoroughly explored in marine microalgae dewatering. High recovery efficiencies were obtained of up to 99 and 98% for Tetraselmis sp. and Chlorococcum sp.| respectively. The effect of culture temperature and salinity on removal efficiency was also observed. A starting temperature of 60 degrees C resulted in optimal recovery values of 96 and 94% for Chlorococcum sp. and Tetraselmis sp.| respectively. Whereas a starting temperature of 5 degrees C achieved optimal recovery of only Sand 68% for Chlorococcum sp. and Tetraselmis sp.| respectively. Increased salinity of microalgae culture showed increased microalgae recovery. Salinity of 20% gave optimal microalgae recovery values of only 6 and 9% for Chlorococcum sp. and Tetraselmis sp.| respectively. Zeta potential (ZP) analysis was carried out to verify and further understand the charge neutralization mechanism due to Fe(2+) cations. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11753,2011,4,4,A perspective on decadal climate variability and predictability,The global surface air temperature record of the last 150 years is characterized by a long-term warming trend| with strong multidecadal variability superimposed. Similar multidecadal variability is also seen in other (societal important) parameters such as Sahel rainfall or Atlantic hurricane activity. The existence of the multidecadal variability makes climate change detection a challenge| since global warming evolves on a similar timescale. The ongoing discussion about a potential anthropogenic signal in the Atlantic hurricane activity is an example. A lot of work was devoted during the last years to understand the dynamics of the multidecadal variability| and external and internal mechanisms were proposed. This review paper focuses on two aspects. First| it describes the mechanisms for internal variability using a stochastic framework. Specific attention is given to variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)| which is likely the origin of a considerable part of decadal variability and predictability in the Atlantic Sector. Second| the paper discusses decadal predictability and the factors limiting its realization. These include a poor understanding of the mechanisms involved and large biases in state-of-the-art climate models. Enhanced model resolution| improved subgrid scale parameterisations| and the inclusion of additional climate subsystems| such as a resolved stratosphere| may help overcome these limitations. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12727,2011,4,4,A Political Ecology of "Water in Mind": Attributing Perceptions in the Era of Global Climate Change,This article explores how researchers can apply social science methods and theoretical frames to capture how place-based communities are perceiving and responding to the immediate effects of global climate change. The study focuses on research with Viliui Sakha-native horse and cattle breeders of northeastern Siberia| Russia| who are increasingly challenged by one of global climate change's most prevalent effects: altered water regimes. By applying the theoretical framework of political ecology| the article shows how researchers can better understand how affected peoples have| in this case| "water in mind" via their histories| cosmologies| and management practices of water. Such awareness can inform research activities and findings| facilitate effective adaptation| and| ultimately| affect policy. Given the widespread emphasis on adaptation| including the urgent need for| increasing interest in| and funding support for transdisciplinary research projects on adaptation| and the facilitative role researchers and policymakers can play in adaptation| this move to understanding and integrating a population's shifting perceptions-in this case| of water in mind-into research is fundamental. 11818,2011,2,3,A possible mechanism for El Nino-like warming in response to the future greenhouse warming,Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| a possible mechanism for the El Nino-like warming in response to the greenhouse warming is suggested. From the coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulations with climate change scenario| it is found that the Bjerknes air-sea coupled process is a dominant contributor to the tropical Pacific response. However| it is revealed that most CGCMs commonly simulate the off-equatorial maximum of precipitation change. It is suggested here that the off-equatorial precipitation and the associated equatorial westerlies play a seeding role in triggering an El Nino-like warming response. Atmospheric GCM (AGCM) experiments show that even uniform sea-surface temperature (SST) warming leads to off-equatorial increase in precipitation which brings equatorial westerlies| implying that these non-uniform (off-equatorial) responses can play a seeding role for the El Nino-like warming pattern. Copyright (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society 3209,2011,3,4,A Prediction-Based Green Scheduler for Datacenters in Clouds,With energy shortages and global climate change leading our concerns these days| the energy consumption of datacenters has become a key issue. Obviously| a substantial reduction in energy consumption can be made by powering down servers when they are not in use. This paper aims at designing| implementing and evaluating a Green Scheduler for reducing energy consumption of datacenters in Cloud computing platforms. It is composed of four algorithms: prediction| ON/OFF| task scheduling| and evaluation algorithms. The prediction algorithm employs a neural predictor to predict future load demand based on historical demand. According to the prediction| the ON/OFF algorithm dynamically adjusts server allocations to minimize the number of servers running| thus minimizing the energy use at the points of consumption to benefit all other levels. The task scheduling algorithm is responsible for directing request traffic away from powered-down servers and toward active servers. The performance is monitored by the evaluation algorithm to balance the system's adaptability against stability. For evaluation| we perform simulations with two load traces. The results show that the prediction mode| with a combination of dynamic training and dynamic provisioning of 20% additional servers| can reduce energy consumption by 49.8% with a drop rate of 0.02% on one load trace| and a drop rate of 0.16% with an energy consumption reduction of 55.4% on the other. Our method is also proven to have a distinct advantage over its counterparts. 11789,2011,2,2,A projection of extreme climate events in the 21(st) century over east Asia using the community climate system model 3,A series of coupled atmosphere-ocean-land global climate model (GCM) simulations using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) has been performed for the period 1870-2099 at a T85 horizontal resolution following the GCM experimental design suggested in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). First| a hindcast was performed using the atmospheric concentrations of three greenhouse gases (CO(2)| CH(4)| N(2)O) specified annually and globally on the basis of observations for the period 1870-1999. The hindcast results were compared with observations to evaluate the GCM's reliability in future climate simulations. Second| climate projections for a 100-year period (2000-2099) were made using six scenarios of the atmospheric concentrations of the three greenhouse gases according to the A1FI| A1T| A1B| A2| B1| and B2 emission profiles of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The present CCSM simulations are found to be consistent with IPCC's AR4 results in the temporal and spatial distributions for both the present-day and future periods. The GCM results were used to examine the changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation in East Asia and Korea. The extreme temperatures were categorized into warm and cold events: the former includes tropical nights| warm days| and heat waves during summer (June-July-August) and the latter includes frost days| cold days| and cold surges during winter (December-January-February). Focusing on Korea| the results predict more frequent heat waves in response to future emissions: the projected percentage changes between the present day and the late 2090s range from 294% to 583% depending on the emission scenario. The projected global warming is predicted to decrease the frequency of cold extreme events; however| the projected changes in cold surge frequency are not statistically significant. Whereas the number of cold surges in the A1FI emission profile decreases from the present-day value by up to 24%| the decrease in the B1 scenario is less than 1%. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events year-round were examined. Both the frequency and the intensity of these events are predicted to increase in the region around Korea. The present results will be helpful for establishing an adaptation strategy for possible climate change nationwide| especially extreme climate events| associated with global warming. 11942,2011,4,4,A quantification of uncertainties in historical tropical tropospheric temperature trends from radiosondes,The consistency of tropical tropospheric temperature trends with climate model expectations remains contentious. A key limitation is that the uncertainties in observations from radiosondes are both substantial and poorly constrained. We present a thorough uncertainty analysis of radiosonde-based temperature records. This uses an automated homogenization procedure and a previously developed set of complex error models where the answer is known a priori. We perform a number of homogenization experiments in which error models are used to provide uncertainty estimates of real-world trends. These estimates are relatively insensitive to a variety of processing choices. Over 1979-2003| the satellite-equivalent tropical lower tropospheric temperature trend has likely (5-95% confidence range) been between -0.01 K/decade and 0.19 K/decade (0.05-0.23 K/decade over 1958-2003) with a best estimate of 0.08 K/decade (0.14 K/decade). This range includes both available satellite data sets and estimates from models (based upon scaling their tropical amplification behavior by observed surface trends). On an individual pressure level basis| agreement between models| theory| and observations within the troposphere is uncertain over 1979 to 2003 and nonexistent above 300 hPa. Analysis of 1958-2003| however| shows consistent model-data agreement in tropical lapse rate trends at all levels up to the tropical tropopause| so the disagreement in the more recent period is not necessarily evidence of a general problem in simulating long-term global warming. Other possible reasons for the discrepancy since 1979 are: observational errors beyond those accounted for here| end-point effects| inadequate decadal variability in model lapse rates| or neglected climate forcings. 3426,2011,2,4,A Review of Elevated Atmospheric CO(2) Effects on Plant Growth and Water Relations: Implications for Horticulture,Empirical records provide incontestable evidence for the global rise in carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration in the earth's atmosphere. Plant growth can be stimulated by elevation of CO(2); photosynthesis increases and economic yield is often enhanced. The application of more CO(2) can increase plant water use efficiency and result in less water use. After reviewing the available CO(2) literature| we offer a series of priority targets for future research| including: 1) a need to breed or screen varieties and species of horticultural plants for increased drought tolerance; 2) determining the amount of carbon sequestered in soil from horticulture production practices for improved soil water-holding capacity and to aid in mitigating projected global climate change; 3) determining the contribution of the horticulture industry to these projected changes through flux of CO(2) and other trace gases (i.e.| nitrous oxide from fertilizer application and methane under anaerobic conditions) to the atmosphere; and 4) determining how CO(2)-induced changes in plant growth and water relations will impact the complex interactions with pests (weeds| insects| and diseases). Such data are required to develop best management strategies for the horticulture industry to adapt to future environmental conditions. 11746,2011,2,4,A semi-analytical model for the propagation of Rossby waves in slowly varying flow,Instead of using complicated general circulation models (GCMs)| a simple semi-analytical model based on ray theory has been used to study energy evolution and ray path of Rossby waves in slowly varying mean flows. Our model yields similar results to those calculated from barotropic models| and also provides a chance to study Rossby waves in the slowly varying flows with both vertical and meridional shears. The model results show that upward Rossby waves can only grow in westerlies| and decay when further ascend. The baroclinic Rossky waves are restrained by the beta effect in lower latitude. In the westerly jet with meridional and vertical shears| the barotropic Rossby waves originated from south of the westerly jet| and these can grow while propagating upper-northward. The baroclinic Rossby waves originated from north of the westerly jet and can grow while propagating upward and southward. Such a semi-analytical model provides a simple forecasting tool to allow study of the local weather anomalies to the heating/topography forcing associated with the global warming. 11749,2011,4,4,A semiparametric panel model for unbalanced data with application to climate change in the United Kingdom,This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is an unbalanced panel. We allow the trend to evolve in a nonparametric way so that we obtain a fuller picture of the evolution of common temperature in the medium timescale. Profile likelihood estimators (PLE) are proposed and their statistical properties are studied. The proposed PLE has improved asymptotic property comparing the sequential two-step estimators. Finally| forecasting based on the proposed model is studied. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12327,2011,4,3,A Significant Component of Unforced Multidecadal Variability in the Recent Acceleration of Global Warming,The problem of separating variations due to natural and anthropogenic forcing from those due to unforced internal dynamics during the twentieth century is addressed using state-of-the-art climate simulations and observations. An unforced internal component that varies on multidecadal time scales is identified by a new statistical method that maximizes integral time scale. This component| called the internal multidecadal pattern (IMP)| is stochastic and hence does not contribute to trends on long time scales; however| it can contribute significantly to short-term trends. Observational estimates indicate that the trend in the spatially averaged "well observed" sea surface temperature (SST) due to the forced component has an approximately constant value of 0.1 K decade(-1)| while the IMP can contribute about +/- 0.08 K decade(-1) for a 30-yr trend. The warming and cooling of the IMP matches that of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and is of sufficient amplitude to explain the acceleration in warming during 1977-2008 as compared to 1946-77| despite the forced component increasing at the same rate during these two periods. The amplitude and time scale of the IMP are such that its contribution to the trend dominates that of the forced component on time scales shorter than 16 yr| implying that the lack of warming trend during the past 10 yr is not statistically significant. Furthermore| since the IMP varies naturally on multidecadal time scales| it is potentially predictable on decadal time scales| providing a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. While the IMP can contribute significantly to trends for periods of 30 yr or shorter| it cannot account for the 0.8 degrees C warming that has been observed in the twentieth-century spatially averaged SST. 12405,2011,3,2,A Simple Parametric Model for the Analysis of Cooled Gas Turbines,A natural gas fired gas turbine combined cycle power plant is the most efficient option for fossil fuel based electric power generation that is commercially available. Trade publications report that currently available technology is rated near 60% thermal efficiency. Research and development efforts are in place targeting even higher efficiencies in the next two decades. In the face of diminishing natural resources and increasing carbon dioxide emissions| leading to greenhouse gas effect and global warming| these efforts are even more critical today than in the last century. The main performance driver in a combined cycle power plant is the gas turbine. The basic thermodynamics of the gas turbine| described by the well-known Brayton cycle| dictates that the key design parameters that determine the gas turbine performance are the cycle pressure ratio and maximum cycle temperature at the turbine inlet. While performance calculations for an ideal gas turbine are straightforward with compact mathematical formulations| detailed engineering analysis of real machines with turbine hot gas path cooling requires complex models. Such models| requisite for detailed engineering design work| involve highly empirical heat transfer formulations embedded in a complex system of equations that are amenable only to numerical solutions. A cooled turbine modeling system incorporating all pertinent physical phenomena into compact formulations is developed and presented in this paper. The model is fully physics-based and amenable to simple spreadsheet calculations while illustrating the basic principles with sufficient accuracy and extreme qualitative rigor. This model is valuable not only as a teaching and training tool| it is also suitable to preliminary gas turbine combined cycle design calculations in narrowing down the field of feasible design options. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4001829] 11865,2011,3,3,A simulation study on the enhancement of the shift reaction by water injection into a gasifier,Although coal gasification is a clean and efficient use of coal| a reduction of CO(2) emissions is needed to mitigate global warming. The aim of this study was to improve the thermal efficiency of fuel production and electricity generation by dry coal feed gasification. The primary cause of thermal efficiency loss is steam use in a water-gas shift reactor. The shift reactor| installed downstream from the gasifier| uses a catalyst to adjust the H(2)/CO ratio of the syngas. We have proposed a new process in which water is injected at the outlet of the gasifier and is vaporized to enhance the extent of the shift reaction. This process utilizes the high temperature of the syngas| which is sufficient for the shift reaction to occur without a catalyst. We have developed a model that incorporates the shift reaction velocity to evaluate our proposed process. In an optimized 5-stage water supply case| we found that the CO conversion reaches 9.9% at a water/syngas ratio of 0.14 mol/mol (water/CO = 0.25 mol/mol); the CO conversion needed for dimethyl ether production is 31%. This new process can improve the efficiency and reduce the cost of coal gasification. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12232,2011,4,4,A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE TEMPERATURE PROXIES: ARE RECONSTRUCTIONS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST 1000 YEARS RELIABLE?,Predicting historic temperatures based on tree rings| ice cores| and other natural proxies is a difficult endeavor. The relationship between proxies and temperature is weak and the number of proxies is far larger than the number of target data points. Furthermore| the data contain complex spatial and temporal dependence structures which are not easily captured with simple models. In this paper| we assess the reliability of such reconstructions and their statistical significance against various null models. We find that the proxies do not predict temperature significantly better than random series generated independently of temperature. Furthermore| various model specifications that perform similarly at predicting temperature produce extremely different historical backcasts. Finally| the proxies seem unable to forecast the high levels of and sharp run-up in temperature in the 1990s either in-sample or from contiguous holdout blocks| thus casting doubt on their ability to predict such phenomena if in fact they occurred several hundred years ago. We propose our own reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere average annual land temperature over the last millennium| assess its reliability| and compare it to those from the climate science literature. Our model provides a similar reconstruction but has much wider standard errors| reflecting the weak signal and large uncertainty encountered in this setting. 12453,2011,4,2,A study of the radiative forcing and global warming potentials of hydrofluorocarbons,We developed a new radiation parameterization of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)| using the correlated k-distribution method and the high-resolution transmission molecular absorption (HITRAN) 2004 database. We examined the instantaneous and stratospheric adjusted radiative efficiencies of HFCs for clear-sky and all-sky conditions. We also calculated the radiative forcing of HFCs from preindustrial times to the present and for future scenarios given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES| in short). Global warming potential and global temperature potential were then examined and compared on the basis of the calculated radiative efficiencies. Finally| we discuss surface temperature changes due to various HFC emissions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12415,2011,2,2,A study on the impact of climate change on streamflow at the watershed scale in the humid tropics,Climate change is recognized to be one of the most serious challenges facing mankind today. Driven by anthropogenic activities| it is known to be a direct threat to our food and water supplies and an indirect threat to world security. Increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will certainly affect hydrological regimes. The consequent global warming is expected to have major implications on water resources management. The objective of this research is to present a general approach for evaluating the impacts of potential climate change on streamflow in a river basin in the humid tropical zone of India. Large-scale global climate models (GCMs) are the best available tools to provide estimates of the effect of rising greenhouse gases on rainfall and temperature. However the spatial resolution of these models (250 km x 250 km) is not compatible with that of watershed hydrological models. Hence the outputs from GCMs have to be downscaled using regional climate models (RCMs)| so as to project the output of a GCM to a finer resolution (50 km x 50 km). In the present work| the projections of a GCM for two scenarios| A2 and B2 are downscaled by a RCM to project future climate in a watershed. Projections for two important climate variables| viz| rainfall and temperature are made. These are then used as inputs for a physically-based hydrological model| SWAT| in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on streamflow and vegetative growth in a humid tropical watershed. 11938,2011,4,4,A study on the prospective teachers' knowledge| teaching methods and attitudes towards global warming with respect to different variables,This study was conducted with the aim of examining the prospective teachers' knowledge about the subject| their skills in preparing activities about global warming and their attitudes towards global warming with respect to different variables. The study was carried out at the Faculty of Education| in Giresun University during 2008-2009 Spring term. 154 senior prospective teachers from different departments participated in the study. As the data collection tool| nine open-ended questions and Global Warming Attitude Scale (GWAS) which was made up of 37 items and developed by Bozdogan were used. The data obtained from open-ended questions were analyzed descriptively and in terms of content. The data obtained from GWAS were analyzed by using ANOVA. With the help of the data| it was concluded that the prospective teachers' knowledge about global warming showed parallelism with their taking courses about this subject. Besides| it was revealed that the prospective teachers preferred techniques which brought visual elements in the foreground for the arrangement of activities about global warming. In addition to these| it was found that gender| club or group membership| taking courses about global warming and following developments about global warming did not have a significant effect on the attitudes of prospective teachers from different departments. 12488,2011,2,4,A synthesis of the impacts of climate change on the First Nations and Inuit of Canada,Climate change is impacting multiple aspects of life| many of which resonate with the wellbeing of humankind. Indigenous peoples| including First Nations and Inuit communities around the world are more vulnerable to the risks associated with global warming. In this synthesis| examples of direct and indirect impacts and vulnerabilities on First Nations and Inuit people inhabiting Canada have been provided. Examples from other countries as a reminder that these populations are not alone have also been included. After visiting the topics of biophysical environment| cultural identity| cultural activities| food security and health with respect to First Nations and Inuit peoples conclusion on adaptation within the context of change has been given. The paper stresses also the importance of linking health to cultural identity and land use. To fully grasp the impact of climate change on First Nations and the Inuit| government stakeholders| policy makers| as well as researchers need to understand the connection that these people retain with their land. Reports from the Nunatsiaq News related to climate change to reiterate the concerns of Inuit people have been compiled. Graphs| stemming from the compilation| indicate what are perceived as the growing problems linked to climate changes in these communities. In order to take a positive| forward thinking| inclusive action| at the local level science will need to team up with traditional knowledge.
12102,2011,5,4,A thousand years of human impact in the northern Scandinavian mountain range: Long-lasting effects on forest lines and vegetation,The vegetation history has been examined by pollen| microscopic and macroscopic charcoal analyses in the vicinity of two alpine Stallo settlement sites and one forested 'Reference area' with no settlement remains in northwestern Sweden in the northern part of the Scandinavian mountain range. The acquired data provide indications of the effects of human activities on local vegetation during the settlement phase| and on ecological processes in both long-and short-term perspectives. The results show that one settlement site| Gieddealge| was established just above the forest line in the Betula treeline zone| and the other| Varenodjukke| in the Betula forest. At Gieddealge an increase in herbs and graminoids appears to have occurred c. 700 cal. BP (during the thirteenth century) suggesting that the vegetation was altered by nutrient addition| most likely related to human activities associated with the settlement. At Varenodjukke| the Betula trees around the settlement were cut down and the site developed into an alpine heath dominated by Betula nana| which still characterizes the site today. In the Reference area evidence of changes to the vegetation probably caused by human impact was also found from c. 3500 to 700 cal. BP. In conclusion| the vegetation currently present at Gieddealge and Varenodjukke has been strongly influenced by previous human activities| which have clearly had profound effects| both short and long term| on the composition of the vegetation and the properties of the ecosystems in these areas. Further| when studying processes| such as anticipated global warming that will influence future patterns of vegetation in these forest-line areas| legacies of land use must be taken into consideration. 12329,2011,2,4,A WAY OF DETERMINING HOW SMALL RIVER BASINS OF SOMES RIVER ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH-FLOODS,The increase in intensity of torrential rains of Romania over the last decades| as a consequence of the general tendency of global warming| has triggered many flash-floods especially in small and very small river basins which in turn have generated a lot of damages| from loss of human lives to important material prejudices. The paper focuses on determining the vulnerability degree of small river basins from Some river basin regarding flash-floods in general and is composed primarily of two parts: in the first part we have presented one of the most destructive flash floods that took place in Some river basin| on the 20-21 June 2006| in the second part we have calculated an index that estimates the vulnerability degree that small river basins from Some river basin have when discussing the matter of flash floods. 12093,2011,3,3,a|omega-dialkoxyfluoropolyethers: a promising class of hydrofluoroether (HFE),The alpha|omega-dialkoxyfluoropolyethers (DA-FPEs) characterized by structure RHO(CF(2)CF(2)O)(n)(CF(2)O)(m)RH have been recently developed as a new class of environmental friendly hydrofluoropolyethers (HFPEs) suitable as solvents| refrigerants and heat transfer. The synthetic methodologies for the preparation of this new class of fluid have been reviewed and physical properties of selected alpha|omega-dimethoxyfluoropolyethers have been evaluated and compared with analogous hydrofluoropolyethers (H-FPEs) having -OCF2H as end-groups. Atmospheric implications and global warming potentials (GWP) of selected alpha|omega-dimethoxyfluoropolyethers have been also considered. 11557,2011,2,2,Abiotic drivers and their interactive effect on the flux and carbon isotope ((14)C and delta(13)C) composition of peat-respired CO(2),Feedbacks to global warming may cause terrestrial ecosystems to add to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions| thus exacerbating climate change. The contribution that soil respiration makes to these terrestrial emissions| particularly from carbon-rich soils such as peatlands| is of significant importance and its response to changing climatic conditions is of considerable debate. We collected intact soil cores from an upland blanket bog situated within the northern Pennines| England| UK and investigated the individual and interactive effects of three primary controls on soil organic matter decomposition: (i) temperature (5| 10 and 15 degrees C); (ii) moisture (50 and 100% field capacity - FC); and (iii) substrate quality| using increasing depth from the surface (0-10| 10-20 and 20-30 cm) as an analogue for increased recalcitrance of soil organic material. Statistical analysis of the results showed that temperature| moisture and substrate quality all significantly affected rates of peat decomposition. Q(10) values indicated that the temperature sensitivity of older/more recalcitrant soil organic matter significantly increased (relative to more labile peat) under reduced soil moisture (50% FC) conditions| but not under 100% FC| suggesting that soil microorganisms decomposing the more recalcitrant soil material preferred more aerated conditions. Radiocarbon analyses revealed that soil decomposers were able to respire older| more recalcitrant soil organic matter and that the source of the material (deduced from the delta(13)C analyses) subject to decomposition| changed depending on depth in the peat profile. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3495,2011,2,4,Abiotic Stress and Induced DNA Hypomethylation Cause Interphase Chromatin Structural Changes in Rice rDNA Loci,Global climate change| i.e. higher and more variable temperatures| and a gain in soil salinity are increasing plant stress with direct consequences on crop yield and quality levels. Rice productivity is strongly affected by abiotic stress conditions. The regulation of chromatin structure in response to environmental stress is poorly understood. We investigated the interphase chromatin organization from rice plants in non-stress versus stress conditions. We have used a cytogenetic approach| based on fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with 45S| 55 rDNA and centromeric probes on rice tissue sections. The abiotic stress conditions included cold| heat and mild salinity and were applied during seed germination. In contrast to cold| saline and heat stresses caused extensive decondensation of 455 rDNA chromatin and also an increase in the distance between the 2 homologous 5S rDNA loci. 5-Azacytidine (5-AC)| a DNA hypomethylating drug| greatly increased 455 rDNA chromatin decondensation and interestingly was able to induce polarization of centromeres in rice interphase nuclei. The abiotic stresses tested did not perturb the spatial position of centromeres| typically with circular arrangement around the nucleolus. The results suggest a role for chromatin plasticity in a world of climate changes. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG| Basel 3275,2011,2,4,Abrupt warming of the Red Sea,Coral reef ecosystems| often referred to as "marine rainforests|" concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment| fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task| as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures| it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s| with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7 degrees C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area. Citation: Raitsos| D.E.| I. Hoteit| P.K. Prihartato| T. Chronis| G. Triantafyllou| and Y. Abualnaja (2011)| Abrupt warming of the Red Sea| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L14601| doi: 10.1029/2011GL047984. 12789,2011,5,3,Abundant Early Palaeogene marine gas hydrates despite warm deep-ocean temperatures,Abrupt periods of global warming between 57 and 50 million years ago-known as the Early Palaeogene hyperthermal events-were associated with the repeated injection of massive amounts of carbon into the atmosphere(1-4). The release of methane from the sea floor following the dissociation of gas hydrates is often invoked as a source(5). However| seafloor temperatures before the events were at least 4-7 degrees C higher than today(1)| which would have limited the area of sea floor suitable for hosting gas hydrates(6|7). Palaeogene gas hydrate reservoirs may therefore not have been sufficient to provide a significant fraction of the carbon released. Here we use numerical simulations of gas hydrate accumulation(8) at Palaeogene seafloor temperatures to show that near-present-day values of gas hydrates could have been hosted in the Palaeogene. Our simulations show that warmer temperatures during the Palaeogene would have enhanced the amount of organic carbon reaching the sea floor as well as the rate of methanogenesis. We find that under plausible temperature and pressure conditions| the abundance of gas hydrates would be similar or higher in the Palaeogene than at present. We conclude that methane hydrates could have been an important source of carbon during the Palaeogene hyperthermal events. 12203,2011,2,4,Acclimation to predicted ocean warming through developmental plasticity in a tropical reef fish,Determining the capacity of organisms to acclimate and adapt to increased temperatures is key to understand how populations and communities will respond to global warming. Although there is evidence that elevated water temperature affects metabolism| growth and condition of tropical marine fish| it is unknown whether they have the potential to acclimate| given adequate time. We reared the tropical reef fish Acanthochromis polyacanthus through its entire life cycle at present day and elevated (+1.5 and+3.0 degrees C) water temperatures to test its ability to thermally acclimate to ocean temperatures predicted to occur over the next 50-100 years. Fish reared at 3.0 degrees C greater than the present day average reduced their resting oxygen consumption (RMR) during summer compared with fish reared at present day temperatures and tested at the elevated temperature. The reduction in RMR of up to 69 mg O(2) kg-1 h-1 in acclimated fish could represent a significant benefit to daily energy expenditure. In contrast| there was no acclimation to summer temperatures exhibited by fish reared at 1.5 degrees C above present day temperatures. Fish acclimated to +3.0 degrees C were smaller and in poorer condition than fish reared at present day temperatures| suggesting that even with acclimation there will be significant consequences for future populations of tropical fishes caused by global warming. 3217,2011,4,4,Accounting for the Nodal Tide to Improve Estimates of Sea Level Acceleration,The 18.6-year nodal tide is a component of all tide gauge records. It can affect estimates of sea level acceleration| in particular for tide gauge records with lengths of less than 60 years. We provide an analytic solution that shows the effect of the nodal tide on estimates of sea level trend and acceleration. By adding a term to the least squares formulation used to estimate sea level trend and acceleration| we can account for the nodal tide and eliminate its effect on the estimate. Using representative world-wide tide gauge records| we demonstrate that accounting for the nodal tide can improve estimates| particularly of acceleration. 11786,2011,2,4,ACTUAL OR PERCEIVED ABUNDANCE? INTERPRETING ANNUAL SURVEY DATA IN THE FACE OF CHANGING PHENOLOGIES,Many annual monitoring programs assume that availability the probability that an animal will be visible| make an audible sound| or leave other evidence of its presence is not changing systematically from year to year. Until recently| this assumption of unchanging availability seemed reasonable| but recent studies report changes in breeding phenology that are presumed to be linked to climate change. Because the rate of bird song is often correlated with stage of breeding| earlier breeding could shift timing of peak bird availability| changing the number of birds counted during annual surveys on set dates. Such changes could be erroneously interpreted as population trends. To better understand how changes in phenology might affect the probability of detecting birds| we modeled availabilities of 31 species in southern Alabama through the breeding season| documenting strong seasonal variation in availability. Then| using our availability estimates| we investigated whether changes in detection probabilities could underlie observed changes in the abundances of some species. We calculated the expected change in the number of times a species would be recorded during surveys conducted within fixed dates by assuming a 1-week shift in breeding activity. We found that summer residents were more likely to show changes in availability but that such changes in availability did not account for trends in Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data for Alabama. Our results suggest that while summer residents' availability may be declining during BBS dates| population declines observed in BBS data for Alabama cannot be dismissed as due to shifting phenology. 3384,2011,3,3,Adaptation and risk management,Adaptation assessment methods are compatible with the international risk management standard ISO:31000. Risk management approaches are increasingly being recommended for adaptation assessments at both national and local levels. Two orientations to assessments can commonly be identified: top-down and bottom-up| and prescriptive and diagnostic. Combinations of these orientations favor different types of assessments. The choice of orientation can be related to uncertainties in prediction and taking action| in the type of adaptation and in the degree of system stress. Adopting multiple viewpoints is to be encouraged| especially in complex situations. The bulk of current guidance material is consistent with top-down and predictive approaches| thus is most suitable for risk scoping and identification. Abroad range of material from within and beyond the climate change literature can be used to select methods to be used in assessing and implementing adaptation. The framing of risk| correct formulation of the questions being investigated and assessment methodology are critical aspects of the scoping phase. Only when these issues have been addressed should be issue of specific methods and tools be addressed. The reorientation of adaptation from an assessment focused solely on anthropogenic climate change to broader issues of vulnerability/resilience| sustainable development and disaster risk| especially through a risk management framework| can draw from existing policy and management understanding in communities| professions and agencies| incorporating existing agendas| knowledge| risks| and issues they already face. (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 296-308 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.97 3480,2011,2,4,Adaptation behavior in the face of global climate change: Survey responses from experts and decision makers serving the Florida Keys,We conduct a survey to elicit responses from experts and decision makers serving the Florida Keys regarding vulnerability to global climate change. Study findings reveal deep concern among federal| state and local experts and decision makers about adverse impacts at the local level. A large majority of respondents recognize the increasing likelihood of dynamic| potentially irreversible| socioeconomic and ecological repercussions for the Florida Keys. However| very few experts and decision makers report that their respective agencies have developed formal adaptation plans. Respondents identify significant institutional and social barriers to adaptation and convey their support for a host of strategic measures to facilitate adaptation on an urgent basis. The implications of our findings are discussed in the context of enhancing adaptive capacity and resilience in the Florida Keys and beyond. Information generated from this study can provide functional guidance for improving decision-support systems and promoting adaptation policies. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12263,2011,2,3,Adapting conservation efforts to face climate change: Modifying nest-site provisioning for lesser kestrels,Adaptation to climate change has recently become a crucial element on the climate change policy agenda as it is now recognized that even the most stringent mitigation efforts may not arrest the effects of climate warming. The ecological impacts and costs of predicted weather-related extreme events| such as extreme temperatures| are not fully understood and may present unexpected challenges to conservationists that require solutions. In Portugal| provisioning of artificial nests has been the main driver of the spectacular increase in the endangered lesser kestrel population. Nevertheless| atypically high temperatures recorded during the 2009 breeding season coincided with a mortality of 22% of surveyed chicks in provided nests. Hot days did not affected prey delivery rates to the nestlings| suggesting that the die-off was due to chicks' acute dehydration. Chick mortality was significantly higher amongst younger individuals. Within survivors| physiological costs of high temperatures significantly affected chick growth and body condition at fledging. Nest-site microclimate was influenced by nest-type and compass orientation: wooden nest-boxes attained the highest temperatures| exceeding 55 degrees C when facing south| so explaining the recorded higher mortality| lower growth rates and lower fledging body condition among broods in these nests. Simulated scenarios of global warming with increasing occupation rate of artificial nests due to reductions in alternatives predicted a reduction in population growth rate. In the worst scenario| with a 100% occupancy of nest-boxes| the population growth would decline on average 7% per year. The impact of high temperatures on lesser kestrel breeding success highlights a need for actions to modify and research to adapt conservation efforts and future planning to account for climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3491,2011,2,4,Additive effects of enhanced ambient ultraviolet B radiation and increased temperature on immune function| growth and physiological condition of juvenile (parr) Atlantic Salmon| Salmo salar,Climate change models predict increased ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation levels due to stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. In order to study the impact of these two environmental stressors acting simultaneously on the physiology of fish| Atlantic salmon parr were exposed| for 8 weeks in outdoor tanks| to different combinations of UVB radiation (depleted and enhanced) and temperature (standard rearing temperature of 14 degrees C or 19 degrees C). The immune function (plasma IgM| lysozyme activity and complement bacteriolytic activity)| growth (body weight) and physiological condition (haematocrit and plasma protein concentration) of the fish were determined. Increased UVB level| regardless of water temperature| had a negative effect on immune function parameters| growth and physiological condition. Higher temperature increased plasma IgM concentration but had a negative effect on complement bacteriolytic activity under both spectral treatments. Increased temperature| irrespective of UVB level| increased fish growth but negatively affected haematocrit and plasma protein. Exposing the fish to enhanced UVB at elevated temperature increased plasma IgM concentration and slightly improved growth. However| complement activity and physiological condition parameters decreased more than when the fish were exposed to each stressor separately. The changes were mainly additive; no interactive or synergistic effects were observed. The negative impact of multiple stressors on immune function| together with predicted increases in pathogen load in warmer waters resulting from global climate change| suggest an increased risk to diseases in fishes. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3351,2011,2,4,Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus),We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins| Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (X) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost| with low survival during an extreme drought year| a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer| and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (lambda = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival| followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. 3321,2011,2,4,Advanced Autumn Migration of Sparrowhawk Has Increased the Predation Risk of Long-Distance Migrants in Finland,Predation affects life history traits of nearly all organisms and the population consequences of predator avoidance are often larger than predation itself. Climate change has been shown to cause phenological changes. These changes are not necessarily similar between species and may cause mismatches between prey and predator. Eurasian sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus| the main predator of passerines| has advanced its autumn phenology by about ten days in 30 years due to climate change. However| we do not know if sparrowhawk migrate earlier in response to earlier migration by its prey or if earlier sparrowhawk migration results in changes to predation risk on its prey. By using the median departure date of 41 passerine species I was able to show that early migrating passerines tend to advance| and late migrating species delay their departure| but none of the species have advanced their departure times as much as the sparrowhawk. This has lead to a situation of increased predation risk on early migrating long-distance migrants (LDM) and decreased the overlap of migration season with later departing short-distance migrants (SDM). Findings highlight the growing list of problems of declining LDM populations caused by climate change. On the other hand it seems that the autumn migration may become safer for SDM whose populations are growing. Results demonstrate that passerines show very conservative response in autumn phenology to climate change| and thus phenological mismatches caused by global warming are not necessarily increasing towards the higher trophic levels. 11683,2011,3,3,Advances and perspectives in using microalgae to produce biodiesel,Carbon-neutral renewable liquid biofuels are needed to displace petroleum-derived transport fuels in the near future - which contribute to global warming and are of a limited availability. A promising alternative is conveyed by microalgae| the oil content of which may exceed 80% (w/w(DW)) - as compared with 5% of the best agricultural oil crops. However| current implementation of microalga-based systems has been economically constrained by their still poor volumetric efficiencies - which lead to excessively high costs| as compared with petrofuel prices. Technological improvements of such processes are thus critical - and this will require a multiple approach| both on the biocatalyst and bioreactor levels. Several bottlenecks indeed exist at present that preclude the full industrial exploitation of microalgal cells: the number of species that have been subjected to successful genetic transformation is scarce| which hampers a global understanding (and thus a rational design) of novel blue-biotechnological processes; the mechanisms that control regulation of gene expression are not fully elucidated| as required before effective bioprocesses based on microalgae can be scaled-up; and new molecular biology tools are needed to standardize genetic modifications in microalgae - including efficient nuclear transformation| availability of promoter or selectable marker genes| and stable expression of transgenes. On the other hand| a number of pending technological issues are also present: the relatively low microalga intrinsic lipid productivity; the maximum cell concentration attainable; the efficiency of harvest and sequential recovery of bulk lipids; and the possibility of by-product upgrade. This review briefly covers the state of the art regarding microalgae toward production of biofuels| both from the point of view of the microalgal cell itself and of the supporting bioreactor; and discusses| in a critical manner| current limitations and promising perspectives in this field. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12716,2011,2,4,After 33 Years| Trees More Frequent and Shrubs More Abundant in Northeast US Alpine Community,Alpine plant communities are sensitive to global climate change| which has been predicted to cause increases in woody vegetation| possibly at the expense of herbs. We studied a community in western Maine| comparing the frequency and abundance of alpine plants in 2009 with frequency and abundance recorded in 1976. During the 33 years between surveys| the most common tree became more frequent| and as a result| the frequency of trees as a functional group increased. Shrubs did not become more frequent but did become more abundant| driven by the increasing abundance of two Vaccinium species. Several species provided evidence of strong affinities for the north or south slope of the mountain| but in most cases such evidence was apparent in a species' frequency or its abundance| not both| indicating that different forces regulate dispersal and vegetative growth of alpine plants| which could have implications for understanding responses to changing environmental conditions. Total species richness of the community increased| with the addition of several lower montane herbs. The changes are consistent with predictions and with observations made in tundra communities elsewhere. 11715,2011,2,4,Agni's fungi: heat-resistant spores from the Western Ghats| southern India,This study concerns the thermotolerance of spores of mesophilic fungi isolated from a tropical semi-arid habitat subject to dry season fire in the Western Ghats| southern India. Among 25 species of Ascomycota isolated from leaf litter| nine were able to grow after incubation in a drying oven for 2 h at 100 degrees C; the spores of two of these species survived 2 h incubation at 110 degrees C| and one survived exposure to 115 degrees C for 2 h. The range of thermotolerance among mesophilic fungi isolated from the leaf litter was surprising: filamentous fungi from other habitats| including species that colonize scorched vegetation after fires and thermophilic forms occurring in self-heating plant composts| cannot survive even brief exposure to such high temperatures. It is possible that the exceptional heat resistance of the Indian fungi is related to adaptations to surviving fires. Genetic analysis of the physiological mechanisms of heat resistance in these fungi offers prospects for future biotechnological innovations. The discovery of extreme thermotolerance among common saprotrophs shows that this physiological trait may be more widespread than recognized previously| adding to concern about the evolution of opportunistic pathogens on a warmer planet. The fungi in this study are among the most heat-resistant eukaryotes on record and are referred to here as 'Agni's Fungi'| after the Hindu God of Fire. (C) 2011 British Mycological Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11770,2011,4,4,Agreement between monthly precipitation estimates from TRMM satellite| NCEP reanalysis| and merged gauge-satellite analysis,Global monthly precipitation is a critical element in understanding variability of the Earth's climate including changes in the hydrological cycle associated with global warming. The NCEP reanalysis (R1)| GPCP| CMAP| and TMPA precipitation data sets are often used in climate studies. This study compares the data sets (R1| GPCP| CMAP| and TMPA) with the TRMM precipitation data sets derived from the TRMM precipitation radar (TPR)| microwave imager (TMI)| and combined algorithm (TCA) for 11 years (1998-2008) over the satellite's domain (40 degrees S-40 degrees N). The domain precipitation estimates from seven data sets range from 2.44 to 3.38 mm d (1) over the ocean and from 1.98 to 2.83 mm d (1) over land. The regional differences between the TPR and the other data sets are analyzed by a paired t test. Particularly| statistically significant differences between TPR and GPCP and between TPR and CMAP are found in most oceanic regions and in some land areas. In general| there exists substantial disagreement in precipitation intensities from the precipitation data sets. Therefore| significant consideration is given to the uncertainties in the data sets prior to applying the results to climate studies such as estimations of the global hydrological budget analyses. Meanwhile| the anomalies from all the data sets agree relatively well in their variability patterns. It is also found that the dominant mode of interannual variability which is associated with the ENSO pattern is clearly demonstrated by all precipitation data sets. These results suggest that all considered precipitation data sets may produce similar results when they are used for climate variability analyses on annual to interannual time scales. 12464,2011,3,3,AGROFORESTRY SYSTEMS AS AN ALTERNATIVE FOR CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN THE MEXICAN TROPICS,This paper is a review regarding the role of agroforestry systems (AFS) as an alternative for carbon sequestration in ecosystems in the Mexican tropics. The AFS are presented as a productive and ecologically friendly strategy. It also highlights the importance of the AFS in the global carbon cycle| citing some factors related to carbon sequestration in vegetation and soil. Looking to the future| the need for further studies on the implementation and sustainable development of AFS is outlined. We conclude that AFS are a sustainable alternative to help increase productivity and play a significant role in mitigating global warming in the tropics. 11664,2011,2,3,Air quality and public health impacts of UK airports. Part I: Emissions,The potential adverse human health and climate impacts of emissions from UK airports have become a significant political issue| yet the emissions| air quality impacts and health impacts attributable to UK airports remain largely unstudied. We produce an inventory of UK airport emissions including aircraft landing and takeoff (LTO) operations and airside support equipment with uncertainties quantified. The airports studied account for more than 95% of UK air passengers in 2005. We estimate that in 2005| UK airports emitted 10.2 Gg [-23 to +29%] of NO(x)| 0.73 Gg [-29 to +32%] of SO(2)| 11.7 Gg [-42 to +77%] of CO| 1.8 Gg [-59 to +155%] of HC| 2.4 Tg [-13 to +12%] of CO(2)| and 0.31 Gg [-36 to +45%] of PM(2.5). This translates to 2.5 Tg [-12 to +12%] CO(2)-eq using Global Warming Potentials for a 100-year time horizon. Uncertainty estimates were based on analysis of data from aircraft emissions measurement campaigns and analyses of aircraft operations. The First-Order Approximation (FOA3) - currently the standard approach used to estimate particulate matter emissions from aircraft - is compared to measurements and it is shown that there are discrepancies greater than an order of magnitude for 40% of cases for both organic carbon and black carbon emissions indices. Modified methods to approximate organic carbon emissions| arising from incomplete combustion and lubrication oil| and black carbon are proposed. These alterations lead to factor 8 and a 44% increase in the annual emissions estimates of black and organic carbon particulate matter| respectively| leading to a factor 3.4 increase in total PM(2.5) emissions compared to the current FOA3 methodology. Our estimates of emissions are used in Part II to quantify the air quality and health impacts of UK airports| to assess mitigation options| and to estimate the impacts of a potential London airport expansion. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3347,2011,2,4,Air temperature and winter mortality: Implications for the persistence of the invasive mussel| Perna viridis in the intertidal zone of the south-eastern United States,Global climate change and invasive species represent two of the biggest threats to the environment. Biological communities are responding to global climate change through poleward shifts in distribution| and changes in abundance and phenology of both native and non-native species. An increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events is predicted with global climate change. Much is known about mortality events of marine organisms in relation to warm thermal stress with relatively little known about cold thermal stress| particularly in the tropics. Intertidal species are particularly susceptible to fluctuations in aerial conditions and many are considered indicators of climate change. Perna viridis is a recent invader to the United States where it fouls hard substrates and soft sediment habitats. During winter 2007/08| a mortality event was observed for P. viridis across Tampa Bay| Florida. This mortality event coincided with extreme weather conditions when air temperatures dropped below 2 degrees C for a period of 6 h during low water. The minimum air temperature recorded was 0.53 degrees C. During this period water temperature remained relatively constant (similar to 20 degrees C). We provide strong evidence supporting the hypothesis that thermal stress relating to exposure to cold air temperatures during emersion was the primary factor underpinning the mortality event. Similar mortality events occurred in 2009 and 2010| also coinciding with prolonged exposure to low air temperatures. In the short term| weather may be responsible for the temporary trimming back of populations at the edge of their geographic range but in the longer-term| it is expected that climate warming will trigger the poleward movement of both native and non-native species potentially facilitating biotic homogenisation of marine communities. The challenge now is to devise adaptive management strategies in order to mitigate any potential negative impacts to native biodiversity. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11734,2011,3,3,Albedo enhancement of marine clouds to counteract global warming: impacts on the hydrological cycle,Recent studies have shown that changes in solar radiation affect the hydrological cycle more strongly than equivalent CO(2) changes for the same change in global mean surface temperature. Thus| solar radiation management "geoengineering" proposals to completely offset global mean temperature increases by reducing the amount of absorbed sunlight might be expected to slow the global water cycle and reduce runoff over land. However| proposed countering of global warming by increasing the albedo of marine clouds would reduce surface solar radiation only over the oceans. Here| for an idealized scenario| we analyze the response of temperature and the hydrological cycle to increased reflection by clouds over the ocean using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. When cloud droplets are reduced in size over all oceans uniformly to offset the temperature increase from a doubling of atmospheric CO(2)| the global-mean precipitation and evaporation decreases by about 1.3% but runoff over land increases by 7.5% primarily due to increases over tropical land. In the model| more reflective marine clouds cool the atmospheric column over ocean. The result is a sinking motion over oceans and upward motion over land. We attribute the increased runoff over land to this increased upward motion over land when marine clouds are made more reflective. Our results suggest that| in contrast to other proposals to increase planetary albedo| offsetting mean global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying| on average| of the continents. However| we note that the changes in precipitation| evaporation and P-E are dominated by small but significant areas| and given the highly idealized nature of this study| a more thorough and broader assessment would be required for proposals of altering marine cloud properties on a large scale. 12435,2011,2,4,Alpine grassland soils contain large proportion of labile carbon but indicate long turnover times,Alpine soils are expected to contain large amounts of labile carbon (C) which may become a further source of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) as a result of global warming. However| there is little data available on these soils| and understanding of the influence of environmental factors on soil organic matter (SOM) turnover is limited. We extracted 30 cm deep cores from five grassland sites along a small elevation gradient from 2285 to 2653 ma.s.l. in the central Swiss Alps. Our aim was to determine the quantity| allocation| degree of stabilization and mean residence time (MRT) of SOM in relation to site factors such as soil pH| vegetation| and SOM composition. Soil fractions obtained by size and density fractionation revealed a high proportion of labile C in SOM| mostly in the uppermost soil layers. Labile C in the top 20 cm across the gradient ranged from 39.6-57.6% in comparison to 7.2-29.6% reported in previous studies for lower elevation soils (810-1960 ma.s.l.). At the highest elevation| MRTs measured by means of radiocarbon dating and turnover modelling| increased between fractions of growing stability from 90 years in free POM (fPOM) to 534 years in the mineral associated fraction (mOM). Depending on elevation and pH| plant community data suggested considerable variation in the quantity and quality of organic matter input| and these patterns could be reflected in the dynamics of soil C. (13)C NMR data confirmed a relationship of SOM composition to MRT. While low temperature in alpine environments is likely to be a major cause for the slow turnover rate observed| other factors such as residue quality and soil pH| as well as the combination of all factors| play an important role in causing small scale variability of SOM turnover. Failing to incorporate this interplay of controlling factors into models may impair the performance of models to project SOM responses to environmental change. 11616,2011,3,4,Alternative "Global Warming" Metrics in Life Cycle Assessment: A Case Study with Existing Transportation Data,The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) impact category "global warming" compares emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) using Global Warming Potential (GWP) with a 100-year time-horizon as specified in the Kyoto Protocol. Two weaknesses of this approach are (1) the exclusion of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and biophysical factors despite their established importance| and (2) the use of a particular emission metric (GWP) with a choice of specific time-horizons (20| 100| and 500 years). The GWP and the three time-horizons were based on an illustrative example with value judgments and vague interpretations. Here we illustrate| using LCA data of the transportation sector| the importance of SLCFs relative to LLGHGs| different emission metrics| and different treatments of time. We find that both the inclusion of SLCFs and the choice of emission metric can alter results and thereby change mitigation priorities. The explicit inclusion of time| both for emissions and impacts| can remove value-laden assumptions and provide additional information for impact assessments. We believe that our results show that a debate is needed in the LCA community on the impact category "global warming" covering which emissions to include| the emission metric(s) to use| and the treatment of time. 11685,2011,3,4,Alternative fuel for gas turbine: Esterified jatropha oil-diesel blend,The oil crisis and the global effort to control the greenhouse effect have forced the researchers to think of various alternative energy sources. This decade has seen increasing importance of chemically treated vegetable oil biodiesel fuels for various applications in heat engines. Post-Kyoto negotiations refer to high level talks attempting to address global warming by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. During Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen the potential topics discussed were carbon capture and storage| biofuels| adaptation financing| technology transfer| sustainable agriculture| emissions targets| tropical forests and rural and transport electrification. Our area of interest is biofuels under which nonedible Jatropha oil due to its properties which are very close to diesel fuel is being explored as an alternative fuel. A lot of research is underway in the use of different biodiesel fuels in Internal Combustion engines| but very limited work has been reported in its use in gas turbines. This paper describes the results of an ongoing development program aimed at determining the technical feasibility of utilizing biodiesel in IS/60 Rovers gas turbine. The test rig is equipped with a dynamometer for turbine loading and AVL exhaust gas analyzer has been used to record emissions. The test results of 2 blends have been reported in this paper. Analyzing the results compared with the base line performance using diesel fuel under normal conditions show encouraging outcomes. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12706,2011,4,4,Alternatives for erosion control by using conventional coverage| non-conventional coverage and revegetation,Humankind's unsustainable behaviour regarding land-use has negative effects on the environment| leading to loss of fertility and degradation and desertification; this has a direct impact on the decline and deterioration of water resources| soil erosion and thus changes in the weather leading to drier conditions. The foregoing are caused by the misuse of soil(2). The way soil resources have suffered gradual deterioration has become evident in Colombia during recent years; this has been produced by erosion and the removal of mass caused by various factors including physical and chemical erosion. All the above| together with negative events such as global climate change and the sedimentation of rivers| means a negative environmental impact. Soil erosion and desertification are major environmental issues regarding disturbances and threats affecting the arid| semiarid and dry sub-humid Mediterranean region's geo-ecosystems in the third millennium; additionally| economic global change may exacerbate such problems (Ingram etal.| 1996; Williams etal.| 1996). Regarding soil deterioration| soil vegetation cover and erosion control and mitigation measures should be introduced by using mechanisms which should be as natural as possible and do not induce fresh impacts on the environment. This literature review has thus documented the state of the art regarding several alternatives for erosion control currently involving bioengineering.
12609,2011,2,4,Altitude and temperature dependence of change in the spring vegetation green-up date from 1982 to 2006 in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,Research in phenology change has been one heated topic of current ecological and climate change study. In this study| we use satellite derived NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the timing of spring vegetation green-up in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau from 1982 to 2006 and to characterize their relationship with elevation and temperature using concurrent satellite and climate data sets. At the regional scale| no statistically significant trend of the vegetation green-up date is observed during the whole study period (R(2) = 0.00| P = 0.95). Two distinct periods of green-up changes are identified. From 1982 to 1999| the vegetation green-up significantly advanced by 0.88 days year(-1) (R(2) = 0.56| P < 0.001). In contrast| from 1999 to 2006| a marginal delaying trend is evidenced (R(2) = 0.44. P = 0.07)| suggesting that the persistent trend towards earlier vegetation green-up in spring between 1980s and 1990s was stalled during the first decade of this century. This shift in the tendency of the vegetation green-up seems to be related to differing temperature trends between these two periods. Statistical analysis shows that the average onset of vegetation green-up over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau would advance by about 4.1 days in response to 1 degrees C increase of spring temperature. In addition| results from our analysis indicate that the spatial patterns of the vegetation green-up date and its change since 1982 are altitude dependent. The magnitude of the vegetation green-up advancement during 1982-1999| and of its postponement from 1999 to 2006 significantly increases along an increasing elevation gradient. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12139,2011,2,4,ALTITUDINAL GENETIC VARIATION AMONG Pinus patula POPULATIONS FROM OAXACA| MEXICO| IN GROWTH CHAMBERS SIMULATING GLOBAL WARMING TEMPERATURES,Climatic change will decouple the matching between genotypes and environments. Studying the patterning of genetic variation among pine populations along altitudinal gradients under simulated climatic change temperatures| would provide insights about how to realign the present populations to future environments. Fourteen Pinus patula populations from the forests of the Native Indian Community of Ixtlan de Juarez| state of Oaxaca| Mexico| were collected in January-March 2005 and 2006 along an altitudinal gradient (2400 m to 3050 m| one population every 50 m of altitudinal difference). Seedlings were grown in growth chambers at the Laurentides Forestry Center| Quebec city| Canada| under two temperature treatments aiming to simulate: contemporary temperature (average 17 degrees C) and a future global warming scenario (average 21 degrees C). Seedlings were evaluated after inducing a second growing season (between 8 and 12 months of age). Populations differed significantly (p <= 0.001) for seedling height and aerial dry weight| and exhibited a significant (p <= 0.02) although weak altitudinal clinal pattern| with populations from lower altitudes having on average taller and heavier seedlings than populations from higher altitudes (r(2)=0.064 and r(2)=0.094). 3449,2011,2,4,Altitudinal trends in the phenology of butterflies in a mountainous area in central Spain,One of the best documented effects of climate change on biodiversity are shifts in phenology. However| long-term data quantifying and projecting the expected changes in phenology associated with climate warming are limited to a few well-recorded areas in the world. In the absence of temporal recording| an alternative approach is to determine the phenological response of species along marked gradients in climate or along latitudinal or altitudinal transects (space-for-time substitution). We studied the phenology (timing and duration of the flight period) of butterflies in 2006 along an altitudinal gradient (900-1680 m; estimated temperature lapse rate = -6.6 degrees C/km) in the Serrania de Cuenca (central Spain) at the assemblage and individual species levels. Timing of the flight period was later for assemblages at high than at low altitudes. A similar trend of an increasing delay in the flight period with altitude was recorded for some individual species. However| there were also some exceptions to this pattern regardless of the number of sites and the altitudinal ranges of the species| suggesting possible local adaptation to regional climate. The duration of the flight period was shorter at high altitudes for assemblages| but this trend was not mirrored in the response of individual species. The results partly support substituting space-for-time when assessing the potential effect of climate change on phenophases such as the timing of the flight period| but we recommend extreme caution in extrapolating the results in the absence of information on how the responses of populations differ. 3176,2011,4,3,Amazon vegetation greenness as measured by satellite sensors over the last decade,During the last decade two major drought events| one in 2005 and another in 2010| occurred in the Amazon basin. Several studies have claimed the ability to detect the effect of these droughts on Amazon vegetation response| measured through satellite sensor vegetation indices (VIs). Such monitoring capability is important as it potentially links climate changes (increasing frequency and severity of drought)| vegetation response as observed through vegetation greenness| and land-atmosphere carbon fluxes which directly feedback into global climate change. However| we show conclusively that it is not possible to detect the response of vegetation to drought from space using VIs. We analysed 11 years of dry season (July-September) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) images. The VI standardised anomaly was analysed alongside the absolute value of EVI and NDVI| and the VI values for drought years were compared with those for non-drought years. Through a series of analyses| the standardised anomalies and VI values for drought years were shown to be of similar magnitude to those for non-drought years. Thus| while Amazon vegetation may respond to drought| this is not detectable through satellite-observed changes in vegetation greenness. A significant long-term decadal decline in VI values is reported| which is independent of the occurrence of drought. This trend may be caused by environmental or noise-related factors which require further investigation. Citation: Atkinson| P. M.| J. Dash| and C. Jeganathan (2011)| Amazon vegetation greenness as measured by satellite sensors over the last decade| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L19105| doi:10.1029/2011GL049118. 3349,2011,3,4,Ameliorating the effects of climate change: Modifying microclimates through design,Microclimatic planning and design can ameliorate negative effects of global climate change. Design modifications to outdoor environments can increase thermal comfort| and in extreme cases can be life-saving. This is not work for amateurs| or for professionals using their intuition or personal experiences. This work must be based on scholarly evidence acquired through carefully designed studies| accurate and precise measurements| and appropriate analysis. Built landscapes should be evaluated to determine if they achieved their microclimate modifying objectives| and the resulting information should be used to inform future studies. Methods for incorporating microclimate information in design should be made more user-friendly and accessible to designers| and knowledge about the effects of landscape planning and design on climate should be effectively communicated to decision-makers at all levels. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11780,2011,5,4,Ammonite paleobiogeography during the Pliensbachian-Toarcian crisis (Early Jurassic) reflecting paleoclimate| eustasy| and extinctions,The Pliensbachian-Toarcian crisis (Early Jurassic) is one of the major Mesozoic paleoecological disturbances when ca. 20% of marine and continental families went extinct. Contemporaneously| profound paleobiogeographical changes occurred in most oceanic domains including a disruption of ammonite provincialism during the Early Toarcian. Here| we quantitatively reappraise the structure and evolution of paleobiogeographical patterns displayed by ammonite faunas before| during| and after the biological crisis| over a time-interval including 13 biochronozones. The high-resolution study presented here involves the use of hierarchical Cluster Analyses| non-metric Multi-Dimensional Scaling methods| and Bootstrap Spanning Network approaches that we apply to a large database including 772 ammonite species from 16 northwestern Tethyan and Arctic basins. Our results confirm a robust faunal dichotomy between Euro-Boreal and Mediterranean areas throughout the Pliensbachian| with the first emergence of an Arctic biome during the cooling regressive event of the Spinatum Zone. Whatever its complexity| Pliensbachian provincialism could be directly linked to paleogeographical barriers and to latitudinal paleoclimatic and paleoecological contrasts. During the Early Toarcian| this pattern was progressively lost| with northward expansions of Mediterranean ammonites during the Tenuicostatum Zone| followed by a strong interprovincial mixing during the Falciferum Zone. This faunal homogenization results from the combination of several parameters including a major sea-level rise facilitating basinal connections| a global warming event stretching the spatial range limits of southern taxa| and a mass extinction preferentially removing endemic species. Ammonite provincialism| although slightly different| was progressively re-established during the cooling regressive trend of the Middle Toarcian. These results therefore suggest a paramount influence of paleoclimatic| eustatic| and extinction constraints on the paleobiogeography of Early Jurassic ammonites| even if some threshold effects or independent biological factors may sporadically complicate the patterns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11854,2011,2,4,An abrupt increase of intense typhoons over the western North Pacific in early summer,The frequency and intensity of typhoons have been a focus in studying typhoon-related climate changes. In this study| we focus on a seasonal cycle of intense typhoons (category 4 and 5) over the western North Pacific| particularly changes in the number of intense typhoons in early summer. In general| 81% of intense typhoons occur in July-November (JASON)| with maxima in September and October. Our analysis shows that intense typhoons have tended to occur more frequently in May since the year 2000. Before 2000| intense typhoons seldom occurred in May| with a frequency of around once per decade. After 2000| however| the frequency of intense typhoons has become much higher in May-almost once per year. We have also examined changes in the large-scale environment in the past few decades. The results show that the large-scale environment did become more favorable for intense typhoons in the 2000s| which is consistent with a larger tropical cyclone genesis index. The changes include warmer sea surface temperature| higher sea surface height| larger upper-ocean heat content| weaker vertical wind shear| increased tropospheric water vapor| and greater water vapor in the mid-troposphere. The last two might be more important than the others. 3392,2011,5,4,AN AGRICHNIAL FEEDING STRATEGY FOR DEEP-MARINE PALEOGENE OPHIOMORPHA GROUP TRACE FOSSILS,Ophiomorpha group trace fossils occur abundantly in a range of Eocene-aged deep-marine environments of deposition in the Basque basin| northern Spain. The morphology and dimensions of these trace fossils| observed in off-axis submarine lobe deposits| are discussed. The reported specimens display a highly organized and systematic burrowing behavior preserved on turbidite bed bases that display interconnecting Y-shaped (hexagonal-polygonal) morphologies. This observation| together with the cross-cutting relationship with tool marks| suggests construction of postdepositional agrichnial burrow networks. The networks probably harvested microbes that broke down cellulose-based organic matter providing an exploitable nutrient source for crustacean trace makers of Ophiomorpha. Therefore| the Ophiomorpha group related traces discussed herein are postulated to represent an ethological response to changes in deep marine environmental conditions driven by global climate change during the early Paleogene| including the early Eocene hyperthermal events. 12091,2011,4,4,An alternative approach for infrared heater control in warming and extreme event experiments in terrestrial ecosystems,P>1. The infrared (IR) heating technique used in terrestrial vegetation warming experiments has been continuously improved over the past two decades| but the temperature control methods applied thus far inadequately reflect natural conditions. 2. Current control methods base the IR radiation administered on measured canopy or air temperatures. However| these temperatures are influenced by stomatal responses of the vegetation| which depend on moisture conditions and therefore also on warming. In nature| drought-stressed vegetation warms up more than well-watered vegetation| leading to potential differences in heat stress. Current control methods preclude such differences from developing. 3. We propose an alternative approach to render temperature control independent of plant responses. Theoretical canopy temperatures associated with given (target) air temperatures are calculated| based on reference canopy conductance determined from controls and fluctuating meteorological conditions. The IR radiation needed to attain the theoretical temperature is subsequently applied. Actual canopy and air temperatures are free to deviate from that temperature| as measured temperatures no longer control the heaters' radiation output. 4. Synthesis. We devised an alternative control method for IR heaters that is independent of plant responses to heating. This is especially critical in extreme event studies| where differences in plant water status| and therefore canopy temperatures| are likely to be exacerbated. 3219,2011,3,4,An analysis of cropland carbon sequestration estimates for North Central Monana,A pilot cropland carbon sequestration program within north central Montana has allowed farmers to receive carbon credit for management adjustments associated with changing from tillage-based agricultural systems to no-till. Carbon credit can also be obtained by adopting conservation reserve| where cropland is planted into perennial vegetation. Summer fallowing is also considered within the crediting process as credit is not given in years that a field is left un-vegetated. The carbon sequestration program has been advocated as a means to mitigate climate change while providing an added source of income for Montana farmers. There is lack of data| however| pertaining to the percentage of lands within this region that have not converted to no-till management| lands under certain crop intensities (e.g. those that are cropped every growing season vs. those that use a fallow-crop-fallow system)| or cropland that have converted to perennial vegetation outside of the popular Conservation Reserve Program. Data is also sparse concerning the amount of soil organic carbon that might be sequestered given a conversion to no-till or conservation reserve. This study established regional percentage estimates of cropland under no-till| various degrees of crop intensity| and conservation reserve within north central Montana. Literature-based carbon sequestration estimates were used to generate carbon gain data associated with the conversation to no-till and to conservation reserve. These estimates were then applied to the area-based cropland statistics to estimate potential regional carbon sequestration associated with these management changes. 12556,2011,3,4,An analysis of development and research on spent nuclear fuel reprocessing,Nuclear energy comes back to the discussions on the world stage as an energy source that does not contribute to global warming during production process. It can be chosen as the main source of power generation in some countries or complement the energy matrix in others. In this context| there is the need to develop new technologies for the management of radioactive waste generated by the production process. Final repositories for spent fuel are not yet in commercial operation| and techniques for fuel reprocessing have been developed| because after use| the fuel still has materials that produce energy. Some countries already use reprocessing| and develop research to make it more secure and more competitive| while others prefer to adopt policies to prevent developments in this area due to the problem of nuclear proliferation. In another line of research| new reactors are being developed in order to reduce the amount of waste in energy production and some will be designed to work in closed loop| recycling the materials generated. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12462,2011,2,4,An analysis of the potato production in Brazil upon global warming,The future of the potato production in Brazil is discussed upon prediction of temperature rise due to global warming. A literature review was carried out on the effects of high temperatures on the potato plant metabolism| and their consequences upon vegetative development and yield. Although higher emphasis was devoted to the climate effect on food production| the risk of genetic erosion by disappearance of wild species is stressed| with consequences to the future of plant breeding. Based on this information and on climate data from the main growing regions published on Brazilian documents| we carried out a prospective analysis of the potato production in Brazil. For that| a temperature rise of up to 5 degrees C was considered to the end of the century| and the range of 10 degrees C to 25 degrees C as the optimum for potato growth| according to specialized literature. For the study| six counties| representative of the main growing regions| were selected: Sao Joaquim| Santa Catarina State; Guarapuava| Parana State; Cristalina| Goias State; Mucuge| Bahia State; Vargem Grande do Sul| Sao Paulo State and Araxa| Minas Gerais State. For cooler counties| such as Sao Joaquim| major drawbacks on potato production are not expected| even though adjustments in planting season should be required. However| cropping on those counties subject to high temperatures which today allow potato production all year round| like Mucuge| and Cristalina| is expected to be restricted to few months of the year. The aim of this article was to alert| not alarm| the Brazilian potato chain in order to promote the management changes to preserve the crop in case the expected temperature rise comes true. In addition| the role of plant breeding to counteract the negative effects of high temperature is discussed.
12475,2011,2,4,An approach to impact assessments of buildings in a changing climate,Future climate change caused by global warming could have dramatic consequences for the built environment. An approach is presented to understand and assess these impacts on the Norwegian building stock in a changing climate. The approach is tested using calculations for the decay potential in timber structures (possessing wood cladding| timber frames or both). First| building data and climate data are compiled in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Second| the computer model calculates the number of buildings that could be affected by a particular climate parameter for historical climate data (1961-1990) and a future climate scenario (2071-2100). The results show that today approximately 615 000 buildings are situated in areas with a high potential risk of rot-decay. In 2100 this number could increase to roughly 2.4 million. The large current amount of wooden buildings and a high number of building defects indicates that future new and refurbished buildings need to be built more robustly to meet the future impacts of climate change. Other climate parameters| e. g. sea level rise| changes in permafrost| the risk of frost decay| temperature change and changes in the amount of wet winter precipitation - are under investigation for their effect on the Norwegian building stock. 3413,2011,4,4,An automated method to monitor lake ice phenology,A simple method to automatically measure the date of ice-on| the date of ice-off| and the duration of lake ice cover is described. The presence of ice cover is detected by recording water temperature just below the ice/water interface and just above the lake bottom using moored temperature sensors. The occurrence of ice-on rapidly leads to detectible levels of inverse stratification| defined as existing when the upper sensor records a temperature at least 0.1 degrees C below that of the bottom sensor| whereas the occurrence of ice-off leads to the return of isothermal mixing. Based on data from 10 lakes over a total of 43 winter seasons| we found that the timing and duration of inverse stratification monitored by recording temperature sensors compares well with ice cover statistics based on human observation. The root mean square difference between the observer-based and temperature-based estimates was 7.1 d for ice-on| 6.4 d for ice-off| and 10.0 d for the duration of ice cover. The coefficient of determination between the two types of estimates was 0.93| 0.86| and 0.91| respectively. The availability of inexpensive self-contained temperature loggers should allow expanded monitoring of ice cover in a large and diverse array of lakes. Such monitoring is needed to improve our ability to monitor the progression of global climate change| and to improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and ice cover over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. 3256,2011,3,3,AN ECONOMIC SENSE OF COAL FIRED POWER PLANT WITH CCS,The use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology on an industrial scale is essential to any hope of meeting global climate change targets. Joint study Germany's Kiel University| Kiel Institute for the World Economy and UK's University of Cambridge has been presented assessment of the economics of building a power plant with CCS facility to replace an aging coal fired plant as a City of Kiel case study. 12174,2011,4,3,An ENSO stability analysis. Part II: results from the twentieth and twenty-first century simulations of the CMIP3 models,In this study| a Bjerknes stability (BJ) index| proposed by Jin et al. (2006)| is adopted to assess the overall stability of El Nio and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in state-of-the-art coupled models. The twentieth and twenty-first century simulations of 12 coupled models among the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 models used in the intergovernmental panel on climate change forth assessment report demonstrate a significant positive correlation between ENSO amplitude and ENSO stability as measured by the BJ index. The simulations also show a diversity of behavior regarding the ENSO stability among the coupled models| which can be attributed to different mean state and sensitivity of an oceanic and atmospheric response to wind and SST forcing from model to model. When respective components of the BJ index obtained from the coupled models are compared with those from observations| it is revealed that most coupled models underestimate the thermodynamic damping effect and the positive effect of the zonal advective and thermocline feedback. Under increased CO(2) induced warm climate| changes| relative to the twentieth century simulations| in the damping and feedback terms responsible for the ENSO stability measured by the BJ index can be linked to mean state changes and associated atmospheric and oceanic response sensitivity changes. There is a clear multi-model trend in the damping terms and positive zonal advective feedback| thermocline feedback| and Ekman feedback terms under enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. However| the various behavior among the coupled models in competition between the positive feedback and negative damping terms in the BJ index formula prevent the formation of a definitive conclusion regarding future projections of ENSO stability using the current coupled models. 11930,2011,3,3,An environmental evaluation of geopolymer based concrete production: reviewing current research trends,In this study we carry out a detailed environmental evaluation of geopolymer concrete production using the Life Cycle Assessment methodology. The literature shows that the production of most standard types of geopolymer concrete has a slightly lower impact on global warming than standard Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) concrete. Whilst our results confirm this they also show that the production of geopolymer concrete has a higher environmental impact regarding other impact categories than global warming. This is due to the heavy effects of the production of the sodium silicate solution. Geopolymer concrete made from fly ashes or granulated blast furnace slags based require less of the sodium silicate solution in order to be activated. They therefore have a lower environmental impact than geopolymer concrete made from pure metakaolin. However| when the production of fly ashes and granulated blast furnace slags is taken into account during the life cycle assessment (using either an economic or a mass allocation procedure)| it appears that geopolymer concrete has a similar impact on global warming than standard concrete. This study highlights that future research and development in the field of geopolymer concrete technology should focus on two potential solutions. First of all the use of industrial waste that is not recyclable within other industries and secondly on the production of geopolymer concrete using a mix of blast furnace slag and activated clays. Furthermore geopolymer concrete production would gain from using waste material with a suitable Si/Al molar ratio in order to minimise the amount of sodium silicate solution used. Finally| by taking into account mix-design technology| which has already been developed for OPC concrete| the amount of binder required to produce a geopolymer concrete could be reduced. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12574,2011,3,4,An environmental impact assessment of quantum dot photovoltaics (QDPV) from raw material acquisition through use,Some emerging technologies are expected to be pivotal for solving many of the environmental challenges faced today| especially those related to energy. However| many of these technologies may incur significant environmental impacts over their life cycle| while having environmental benefits during their use. This paper presents results of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of a proposed type of nanophotovoltaic| quantum dot photovoltaic (QDPV) module. The LCA is confined to the stages of raw materials acquisition| manufacturing| and use. The impacts of QDPV are compared with other types of PV modules and energy sources both renewable and nonrenewable. To provide a comprehensive comparative assessment| QDPV modules were compared with mature as well as emerging PV types for which data are available. Comparative assessment with other types of energy sources includes coal| oil| lignite| natural gas| diesel| nuclear| wind| and hydropower. QDPV modules may have the potential to overcome two current barriers of solar technology: low efficiencies and high manufacturing costs. If higher efficiencies are realized| QDPV modules could pave the way to large scale implementation of solar energy| helping nations move toward greater energy independence. On the other hand| candidate materials as quantum dots for solar cell applications are mostly compound semiconductors such as cadmium selenide| cadmium telluride| and lead sulfide which may be toxic and for which renewable options are limited. Toxic effects of these materials may be exacerbated by their nanoscale features. The LCA was carried out using the software SimaPro| and the Ecoinvent Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) database supplemented with available literature and patent information. Our results indicate that while QDPV modules have shorter Energy PayBack Time (EPBT)| lower Global Warming Potential (GWP)| SO(x) and NO emissions than other types of PV modules| they have higher heavy metal emissions| underscoring the need for investigation of emerging technologies| especially nano-based ones| from a life cycle perspective. QDPV modules are better in all impact categories assessed than carbon-based energy sources but they have longer EPBT than wind and hydropower and higher GWR (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 3273,2011,3,3,An estimation of energy consumption and CO(2) emissions in tourism sector of China,In 2009| nearly 900 million international tourist arrivals were counted worldwide. A global activity of this scale can be assumed to have a substantial impact on the environment. In this contribution| five major aspects such as the change of LUCC and the use of energy and its associated impacts had been recognized. Recently| the impact of tourism on environment and climate attracts the attention of international organizations and societies in pace with rapid development of tourism industry. Energy consumption and CO(2) emissions in tourism sector are becoming a hot spot of international tourism research in recent five years. The use of energy for tourism can be divided according to transport-related purposes (travel to| from and at the destination) and destination-related purposes excluding transports (accommodation| food| tourist activities| etc.). In addition| the transports| accommodation and foods are related to many other industries which are dependent on energy. Thus| the estimations of energy consumption and CO(2) emissions in tourism sector have become a worldwide concern. Tourism in China grows rapidly| and the number of domestic tourists was 1902 million in 2009. Energy use and its impact on the environment increase synchronously with China's tourism. It is necessary to examine the relationship between energy use and CO(2) emissions. In this article| a preliminary attempt was applied to estimate the energy consumption and CO(2) emissions from China's tourism sector in 2008. Bottom-up approach| literature research and mathematical statistics technology were also adopted. According to the calculations| Chinese tourism-related may have consumed approximately 428.30 PJ of energy in 2008| or about 0.51% of the total energy consumptions in China. It is estimated that CO(2) emissions from tourism sector amounted to 51.34 Mt| accounting for 0.86% of the total in China. The results show that tourism is a low-carbon industry and also a pillar industry coping with global climate change| energy-saving and CO(2) emission reduction. Based on this| the authors suggested that tourism should become an important field in low-carbon economic development. 12006,2011,3,2,An Evaluation of Trading Methods for a Distributed Energy Management System,Control of CO(2) emissions| which are the main factor causing global warming| is one of the most important problems in the 21st century for the preservation of the earth's environment. Therefore| efficient supply and use of energy are indispensable. We have proposed distributed energy management systems (DEMS)| which are intended to obtain optimal plans that minimize both costs and CO(2) emissions by electrical and thermal trading. In this paper we evaluate trading methods for the DEMS through computational experiments. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals| Inc. Electron Comm Jpn| 94(6): 32-40| 2011; Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com). DOI 10.1002/ecj.10203 12244,2011,4,4,An exergy-based framework for evaluating environmental impact,The analysis framework introduced in this paper utilizes the recognition that exergy is a form of environmental free energy to provide a fundamental basis for valuing environmental interactions independent from their secondary impacts (e.g.| global warming| photochemical smog). In order to extend exergy to analyze environmental interactions| modifications are required to the traditional representation of the environment and definition of the dead state used in technical exergy analysis. These are accomplished through a combination of logical extensions and use of non-equilibrium thermodynamic principles. The framework is comprised of two separate components: (1) environmental exergy analysis and (2) anthropocentric sensitivity analysis. Environmental exergy analysis is based on fundamental thermodynamic principles and analysis techniques. It extends the principles of technical exergy analysis to the environment in order to quantify the locations| magnitudes| and types of environmental impact state change| alteration of natural transfers| and destruction change. Anthropocentric sensitivity analysis is based on the concepts of anthropocentric value and anthropocentric sensitivity. It enables the results of environmental exergy analysis to be interpreted for decision making| but at the expense of introducing some subjectivity into the framework. A key attribute of the framework is its ability to evaluate and compare the environmental performance of energy systems on a level playing field| regardless of the specifics of the systems-resources| by-products| sizes| time scales. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3190,2011,2,4,An experimental facility for free air humidity manipulation (FAHM) can alter water flux through deciduous tree canopy,A facility for free air humidity manipulation (FAHM) was established to investigate the effect of increased air humidity on trees' performance and their canopy functioning with respect to rising air humidity predicted for Northern Europe. The FAHM system enables air relative humidity (RH) to be increased up to 18 units (%) over the ambient level during mist fumigation| depending on the wind speed inside the experimental stand. Water was dispersed inside 14 x 14m experimental plots in the form of mist with an average particle size of 50 mu m from June to August in 2008| and from May to September in 2009. The average increase in RH was 7 units (%) over the whole period of humidification in 2008 (P<0.05). The average diurnal stem sap flux density per unit projected leaf area (F) in silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.) trees was 24.8% (P<0.05) and 27.2% (P<0.01) higher in control (C) plots compared to humidification (H) plots during misting in 2008 and 2009| respectively. However| the difference between C and H plots was statistically insignificant (P>0.05) in silver birch on the days without misting. In hybrid aspen (Populus tremula L x P. tremuloides Michx.) the average difference in F between C and H plots was 61.1% (P<0.001) during mist fumigation in the summer of 2009. Nevertheless| the difference was considerable (38.8%; P<0.001) also on the days without misting| reflecting the impact of plant inner factors on F as a result of long-term acclimation to fumigation. The leaves of silver birch in a humidified plot demonstrated up to 2.4 degrees C lower (P<0.05) leaf temperature (T(L)) compared to the control plot in 2009. The decline in T(L) decreased the humidity gradient between leaf and air by about 1/3| whereas 2/3 of the effect was caused directly by changes in air humidity in the leaf boundary layer. Our preliminary data suggest that the FAHM experimental facility enables water fluxes through a deciduous tree canopy to be reduced and this effect is attributable both to the increased air humidity and decreased leaf temperature. Changes in these two basic factors may create considerable differences in the physiology| anatomy and nutrition of a whole tree| also affecting forest functioning in the light of global climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved. 12461,2011,3,3,AN EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECT OF REFRIGERANT CHARGE LEVEL ON AN AUTOMOTIVE AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM,During the last 25 years automotive air conditioning (AAC) systems have significant development introduced by the industry and research institutes in the world to minimize the global warming threat to the environment. This paper reports the results of a study on the performance of an AAC system with measuring the compressor driving speed and the refrigerant leakage. For this purpose an experimental set up is designed and constructed to investigate the system performance. Although| the manufacturer's recommended amount for the tests with R-134a as refrigerant was 750 g| the experiments were also carried out by selecting different amount of the same refrigerant charges to analyse the coefficient of performance (COP)| the cooling capacity and the compressor power change with respect to the rotating speed of the compressor. The evaluation of experimental data revealed that the best cooling capacity was achieved at 500 g refrigerant charge. Although| while the charge level decreased 40% below or increased 20% above the 500g of the charge amount| cooling capacity loss increased up to 25% when optimum value of 500 g of the cooling refrigerant was utilized. The test results proved in each case that increasing the compressor driving speed cause almost a linear change in the corresponding power level. The test results also shown that COP of the cooling system was decreased effectively when the revolution speed increased for any specified charge amount of the refrigerant. 12452,2011,3,4,AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON HEAT TRANSFER COEFFICIENTS OF A CO(2)-FILLED THERMOSYPHON,Because carbon dioxide is ozone friendly and has negligible global warming potential| it has received renewed interest in recent years as an important alternative refrigerant. In this article| the heat transfer characteristics of a carbon dioxide-filled two-phase closed thermosyphon were investigated experimentally| and the empirical heat transfer correlations are reported. The heat transfer data were analyzed| and heat transfer coefficients were compared with conventional heat transfer correlations. The results represent that heat transfer correlation of the heated section can be expressed with Kutatelatze's correlation| and heat transfer coefficients of the condenser section are found to be in reasonable agreement with the Nusselt equation. 11722,2011,3,4,An experimental study on the performance of enthalpy recovery system for building applications,In recent years| the attention of researchers has been focused on energy conservation demands due to the environmental impact of energy consumption throughout the built environment and global warming issue. Heat or energy recovery is one of the main energy-efficient systems that has been approved to overcome this problem. However| in conventional heat or energy recovery for building applications| only sensible energy has been recovered and neglecting the latent energy. In this work| enthalpy recovery system has been developed and the performances of sensible and latent energy have been investigated experimentally. The efficiency of close to 66% has been achieved for sensible energy and the latent energy efficiency was nearly 59% gained. Comparison of efficiency with effectiveness-NTU method showed both were in good agreement. Recovered energy was achieved up to 167 W at 3.0 m/s air velocity with 4.3 degrees C temperature difference. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3295,2011,2,4,An experimental test of the role of environmental temperature variability on ectotherm molecular| physiological and life-history traits: Implications for global warming,Global climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity; one of the most important effects is the increase in the mean earth surface temperature. However| another but poorly studied main characteristic of global change appears to be an increase in temperature variability. Most of the current analyses of global change have focused on mean values| paying less attention to the role of the fluctuations of environmental variables. We experimentally tested the effects of environmental temperature variability on characteristics associated to the fitness (body mass balance| growth rate| and survival)| metabolic rate (VCO(2)) and molecular traits (heat shock protein expression| Hsp70)| in an ectotherm| the terrestrial woodlouse Porcellio laevis. Our general hypotheses are that higher values of thermal amplitude may directly affect life-history traits| increasing metabolic cost and stress responses. At first| results supported our hypotheses showing a diversity of responses among characters to the experimental thermal treatments. We emphasize that knowledge about the cellular and physiological mechanisms by which animals cope with environmental changes is essential to understand the impact of mean climatic change and variability. Also| we consider that the studies that only incorporate only mean temperatures to predict the life-history| ecological and evolutionary impact of global temperature changes present important problems to predict the diversity of responses of the organism. This is because the analysis ignores the complexity and details of the molecular and physiological processes by which animals cope with environmental variability| as well as the life-history and demographic consequences of such variability. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 12074,2011,2,4,An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250,Forest fires play a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus| can affect regional and global climate. Although fires in extended areas of Russian boreal forests have a considerable influence on atmospheric greenhouse gas and soot concentrations| estimates of their impact on climate are hampered by a lack of data on the history of forest fires. Especially regions with strong continental climate are of high importance due to an intensified development of wildfires. In this study we reconstruct the fire history of Southern Siberia during the past 750 years using ice-core based nitrate| potassium| and charcoal concentration records from Belukha glacier in the continental Siberian Altai. A period of exceptionally high forest-fire activity was observed between AD 1600 and 1680| following an extremely dry period AD 1540-1600. Ice-core pollen data suggest distinct forest diebacks and the expansion of steppe in response to dry climatic conditions. Coherence with a paleoenvironmental record from the 200 km distant Siberian lake Teletskoye shows that the vegetational shift AD 1540-1680| the increase in fire activity AD 1600-1680| and the subsequent recovery of forests AD 1700 were of regional significance. Dead biomass accumulation in response to drought and high temperatures around AD 1600 probably triggered maximum forest-fire activity AD 1600-1680. The extreme dry period in the 16th century was also observed at other sites in Central Asia and is possibly associated with a persistent positive mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No significant increase in biomass burning occurred in the Altai region during the last 300 years| despite strongly increasing temperatures and human activities. Our results imply that precipitation changes controlled fire-regime and vegetation shifts in the Altai region during the past 750 years. We conclude that high sensitivity of ecosystems to occasional decadal-scale drought events may trigger unprecedented environmental reorganizations under global-warming conditions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12724,2011,3,3,An improved design of gasifier equipment for Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China,Considering the disadvantage of the present home and aboard biomass gasifiers| a new design was conducted to improve the current conditions such as low combustion| high tar and dust| low heat value and so on. A suite of gasification was achieved to decrease tar| sulfur and dust during gasification process. The developing system provides a feasible strategy for improving and developing gasifier equipment. The improved gasifier equipment includes gas generator| high temperature pyrolysis apparatus| the first dust filter| the second dust filter| heat-cold exchange apparatus| washing apparatus| motive power apparatus| tar removal apparatus| and sulfur removal apparatus. The harmless combustible gases enter the gas container| and go through a dedicated pipeline| and then the gas was delivered to the house for coking| heating or generating electricity. Up to now| the improved gasifier equipment has been successfully applied to some communities in Qinghai and inner Mongolia of China. Implications of the improved gasifier equipment is improving human health| reducing fuel consumption| deforestation and global climate change. It was found cost-effective and renewable in nature and suitable for both urban and rural areas| especially in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau because of the anoxia. The study has applied the patent of the State Intellectual Property Office of the People's Republic of China (Patent number: 201020192115.2). The product has produced by Lanzhou MinSheng straw liquefied gas stove Co.| LTD| Gansu| China.
11579,2011,2,4,An In Situ Leaf and Branch Warming Experiment in the Amazon,Leaves and branches of mature trees| lianas| and gap species were warmed in an Amazonian forest for 4 mo to observe the effect of warming on photosynthesis| stomatal conductance| and transpiration. Electric resistance heaters increased air temperatures near the leaves by approximately 2 degrees C. Sunlit leaf temperatures increased by 2-3 degrees C on average| but during some periods leaf temperatures increased by >5 degrees C. Maximum photosynthesis (A(max)) decreased significantly in the warmed leaves vs. the control leaves over the 13-wk study period with an average decrease in A(max) of 1.4 mu mol/m(2)s (19% decrease from a mean A(max) of 7.2 mu mol/m(2)s) when measured at 30 degrees C and there were no signs of acclimation to higher temperatures within existing leaves. The decline in A(max) was likely due to irreversible temperature damage caused by very high leaf temperatures and not due to C(i) limitation of carboxylation. Warming had a larger negative impact on A(max) in canopy level tree species than other tested functional groups such as lianas or gap species. Transpiration did not significantly increase in the warmed leaves compared with the control group. This study indicates that increased temperatures due to global warming could potentially decrease future tropical forest carbon uptake by a significant amount. 11936,2011,3,3,An intelligent system for monitoring and diagnosis of the CO(2) capture process,Amine-based carbon dioxide capture has been widely considered as a feasible ideal technology for reducing large-scale CO(2) emissions and mitigating global warming. The operation of amine-based CO(2) capture is a complicated task| which involves monitoring over 100 process parameters and careful manipulation of numerous valves and pumps. The current research in the field of CO(2) capture has emphasized the need for improving CO(2) capture efficiency and enhancing plant performance. In the present study| artificial intelligence techniques were applied for developing a knowledge-based expert system that aims at effectively monitoring and controlling the CO(2) capture process and thereby enhancing CO(2) capture efficiency. In developing the system| the inferential modeling technique (IMT) was applied to analyze the domain knowledge and problem-solving techniques| and a knowledge base was developed on DeltaV Simulate. The expert system helps to enhance CO(2) capture system performance and efficiency by reducing the time required for diagnosis and problem solving if abnormal conditions occur. The expert system can be used as a decision-support tool that helps inexperienced operators control the plant: it can be used also for training novice operators. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12087,2011,3,4,An investigation of energy harvesting from renewable sources with PVDF and PZT,Piezoelectric materials have been in use for many years; however| with an increasing concern about global warming| piezoelectricity has gained significant importance in research and development for extracting energy from the environment. In this work the voltage responses of ceramic based piezoelectric fibre composite structures (PFCs) and polymer based piezoelectric strips| PVDF (polyvinylidene fluoride)| were evaluated when subjected to various wind speeds and water droplets in order to investigate the possibility of energy generation from these two natural renewable energy sources for utilization in low power electronic devices. The effects of material dimensions| drop mass| releasing height of the drops and wind speed on the voltage output were studied and the power was calculated. This work showed that piezoelectric polymer materials can generate higher voltage/power than ceramic based piezoelectric materials and it was proved that producing energy from renewable sources such as rain drops and wind is possible by using piezoelectric polymer materials. 12648,2011,4,4,An observational evidence of climate change during global warming era,The relationships of the Frequency of the Cyclonic Systems (FCS) over the Bay of Bengal in the Summer Monsoon (SM) season (June through September) with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from January through May for the period 1950-2005 are examined. The NAOI (January and February) and the SOI (April) showed significant inverse and positive relationships respectively with the FCS generated in SM season over the Bay of Bengal. These relationships are marked on a decadal scale. In the Global Warming (GW) era| a significant reduction in the FCS is associated with a significant increase of NAOI| relaxation of 501 and a weak vertical zonal wind shear in the domain 5 degrees-22 degrees N and 80 degrees-100 degrees E. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3420,2011,3,3,An option for solar thermal repowering of fossil fuel fired power plants,Global climate change urges immediate measures to be taken to limit greenhouse gas emission coming from the fossil fuel fired power plants. Solar thermal energy can be involved in different ways in existing power generation plants in order to replace heat produced by fossil fuels. Solar field feed water preheating is mainly discussed in this paper as an option for fast and feasible RES penetration. Rankine regenerative steam cycled power plant has been modelled with Thermoflow software. The plant model incorporates also a field with solar Fresnel collectors that directly heats boiler's feed water. The proposed plant modification yields substantial fossil fuel input reduction. The best results can be obtained when the group of high pressure heaters is replaced and feed water temperature exceeds its original design value. The solar power generation share can reach up to 23% of the power plant capacity in this case| having efficiency higher than 39% for the best solar hour of the year. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12012,2011,2,4,An urban boreal lake basin as a source of CO(2) and CH(4),Up to now| carbon gas fluxes from urban lakes in the boreal zone have seldom been studied. In summer 2005 we investigated fluxes from an urban boreal lake basin in southern Finland with long history of eutrophication and anoxia. Hypolimnetic CO(2) and CH(4) concentrations were high compared to other boreal lakes. During the open-water period| the lake basin acted as a source of CO(2) and CH(4) with fluxes of 2.10 mol m(-2) and 0.04 mol m(-2)| respectively. Despite the high oxidation rate (83%)| CH(4) flux was higher than in other lakes and CH(4) contributed 60% to Global Warming Potential. The ratio of carbon emission to accumulation was 4| i.e. emissions were an important route for carbon departure but less so than in rural lakes. Since the lake oxygen conditions affected nutrient availability| there was a positive feedback from hypolimnion to carbon uptake| which was reflected in gas concentrations. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12779,2011,3,4,Anaerobic digestion of starch-polyvinyl alcohol biopolymer packaging: Biodegradability and environmental impact assessment,The digestibility of a starch-polyvinyl alcohol (PVOH) biopolymer insulated cardboard coolbox was investigated under a defined anaerobic digestion (AD) system with key parameters characterized. Laboratory results were combined with industrial operational data to develop a site-specific life cycle assessment (LCA) model. Inoculated with active bacterial trophic groups| the anaerobic biodegradability of three starch-PVOH biopolymers achieved 58-62%. The LCA modeling showed that the environmental burdens of the starch-PVOH biopolymer packaging under AD conditions on acidification| eutrophication| global warming and photochemical oxidation potential were dominated by atmospheric emissions released from substrate degradation and fuel combustion| whereas energy consumption and infrastructure requirements were the causes of abiotic depletion| ozone depletion and toxic impacts. Nevertheless| for this bio-packaging| AD of the starch-PVOH biopolymer combined with recycling of the cardboard emerged as the environmentally superior option and optimization of the energy utilization system could bring further environmental benefits to the AD process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12734,2011,2,4,Analysis of Coastal Climate Change| against the background of Global Climate Change over the Last Fifty Years| in Jiaodong Peninsula|China,Tian| Q.; Wang| Q.; zhan| C.; Li| X.G.; Liu| X.P.; Yi| H.P. and Liu|Y.L.| 2011. Analysis of Coastal Climate Change| against the background of Global Climate Change over the Last Fifty Years| in Jiaodong Peninsula| China. Journal of Coastal Research| SI 64 (Proceedings of the 11 th International Coastal Symposium)| 250-254. Szczecin| Poland| ISSN 0749-0208. The cosatal zone has always been the most developed region| with dense population and many cities; also| it is the ecologically-fragile area| which is very sensitive to climate change. In this paper| the climate change in Jiaodong Peninsula| China was analyzed by the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test| Accumulated Difference Curve and Order Cluster Analysis methods| based upon the temperature and precipitation data over the past 50 years. Results obtained showed a number of observations: (1) The annual mean temperature of Jiaodong Peninsula showed a significant increasing trend| with a distinct abrupt change point detected around 1990| during the past 5 decades. The warming of Jiaodong Peninsula over the last 50 years was due mainly to the significant increase of annual minimum temperature. (2)The annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend during the past 5 decades| with an abrupt change detected around 1980 at most stations; there was an earlier transition point at 1966| at a few stations. The reduction in precipitation| from June to September| was responsible mainly for the decrease of annual precipitation. (3)The temperature evolution in Jiaodong Peninsula was basically consistent with most parts of the world| but warmed at a faster rate over the same period; the decreasing trend of precipitation was more significant. Within the Peninsula| the southeastern part has earlier transition points of temperature and precipitation| as well as larger reduction of precipitation than the northwest. This research was of great importance to understand the climate change and its environmental effects in the coastal zone. 11744,2011,2,4,Analysis of extreme low-temperature events during the warm season in Northeast China,The trends of global warming are increasingly significant| especially in the middle and high latitude regions of the northern hemisphere| where the impact of climate change on extreme events is becoming more noticeable. Northeast China is located in a high latitude region and is sensitive to climate change. Extreme minimum temperatures causing cold damage during the warm season is a major type of agro-meteorological disaster in Northeast China| which causes serious reductions in crop yield. In this paper| we analyzed the temporal and spatial trends in the frequency of extreme minimum temperatures during the warm season (from May to September) during 1956-2005 in Northeast China. Abrupt climatic changes were identified using the Mann-Kendall test. The results show that the frequency of extreme minimum temperature days during the warm season in Northeast China decreases significantly from 1956 to 2005 with a background of climate warming. The highest number of extreme minimum temperature days occurred in the 1970s and 1980s| and there was an abrupt climatic change in 1993. The spatial analysis identified that the north and southeast of the region experienced a larger decrease in the number of extreme low temperature days than the west and south of the region. Rice| sorghum| corn| and soybeans are most vulnerable to cold damage. In severe low temperature years| the average crop yield was reduced by 15.2% in Northeast China. 3421,2011,2,4,Analysis of Leaf and Root Transcriptomes of Soil-Grown Avena barbata Plants,Slender wild oat (Avena barbata) is an annual grass dominant in many grassland ecosystems in Mediterranean climate. This species has been the subject of ecological studies aimed at understanding the effect of global climate change on grassland ecosystems and the genetic basis for adaptation under varying environmental conditions. We present the sequencing and analysis of cDNA libraries constructed from leaf and root samples collected from A. barbata grown on natural soil and under varying rainfall patterns. More than 1 million expressed sequence tags (ESTs) were generated using both GS 454-FLX pyrosequencing and Sanger sequencing| and these tags were assembled into consensus sequences. We identified numerous candidate polymorphic markers in the data set| providing possibilities for linking the genomic and the existing genetic information for A. barbata. Using the digital Northern method| we showed that genes involved in photosynthesis were down-regulated under high rainfall while stress-related genes were up-regulated. We also identified a number of genes unique to the root library with unknown function. Real-time reverse transcription-PCR was used to confirm the root specificity of some of these transcripts such as two genes encoding O-methyl transferase. Also we showed differential expression of five root-specific genes under three water levels and two developmental stages. Through a combination of Sanger and 454-based sequencing technologies| we were able to generate a large set of transcribed sequences for A. barbata. This data set provides a platform for further studies of this important wild grass species. 3340,2011,3,3,Analysis on bargaining about global climate change mitigation in international aviation sector,Understanding the basic interaction mechanism among nations surrounding the CO(2) emissions is critically important for the policy formulation analysis in aviation sector at present| especially for market-based measures such as emission allowance trading. We performed simulation analysis of the effects on pricing of emission allowances by including major players such as China and India into the hypothetical global CO(2) emission trading scheme according to non-cooperative game framework. In the presence of a negative public good| i.e.| CO(2)| we extended the Lindahl-Bowen-Samuelson condition to include a class of uncertainty typical in climate change policy into utility. By using the result| we explained| with some numerical examples| the welfare effects caused by the changes of factors| such as level of uncertainty| degree of risk averse| asymmetric utility structure| initial allocation among players| based on our model surrounding the bargaining of CO(2) emissions allocation games. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12806,2011,3,3,Analysis on influence factors of China's CO2 emissions based on Path-STIRPAT model,With the intensification of global warming and continued growth in energy consumption| China is facing increasing pressure to cut its CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions down. This paper discusses the driving forces influencing China's CO2 emissions based on Path-STIRPAT model-a method combining Path analysis with STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population| affluence and technology) model. The analysis shows that GDP per capita (A)| industrial structure (IS)| population (P)| urbanization level (R) and technology level (T) are the main factors influencing China's CO2 emissions| which exert an influence interactively and collaboratively. The sequence of the size of factors' direct influence on China's CO2 emission is A>T>P>R>IS| while that of factors' total influence is A>R>P>T>IS. One percent increase in A| IS| P| R and T leads to 0.44| 1.58| 1.31| 1.12 and -1.09 percentage change in CO2 emission totally| where their direct contribution is 0.45| 0.07| 0.63| 0.08| 0.92| respectively. Improving T is the most important way for CO2 reduction in China. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3489,2011,4,4,Analytical estimate of the critical global-warming level for the Antarctic ice sheet mass gain-to-loss transition,We suggested a relatively simple model describing changes in the total balance of the ice sheet mass due to global climate change. Taking into account the basic mechanisms behind change in the ice sheet mass and their relations with temperature| we obtained a nonlinear analytical dependence of the ice sheet thickness on the global near-surface temperature. The behavior of the ice sheet can be split into six regimes. Implementation of some regime or another depends essentially on the initial (present-day) value of the mass balance and the sensitivity parameters of precipitation and ice melt to the temperature. Based on this model| we obtained an analytical estimate of the critical level in global warming| in excess of which the regime of the Antarctic ice sheet gain due to snow accumulation changes to sheet degradation due to more intense growth in ice melting. 11609,2011,3,4,Analytical model based on green criteria for optical backbone network interconnection,Key terms such as Global warming| Green House Gas emissions| or Energy efficiency are currently on the scope of scientific research. Regarding telecommunications networks| wireless applications| routing protocols| etc. are being designed following this new "Green" trend. This work contributes to the evaluation of the environmental impact of networks from physical interconnection point of view. Networks deployment| usage| and disposal are analyzed as contributing elements to ICT's (Information and Communications Technology) CO(2) emissions. This paper presents an analytical model for evaluating and quantifying the CO(2) emissions of optical backbone networks during their lifetime. The main goal of this work is to present the model and illustrate how to evaluate the physical interconnection of backbones from an environmental perspective. This model can be applied as a new type of decision support criteria for backbone's interconnection| since minimization of CO(2) emissions is becoming an important factor. In addition| two case studies are presented to illustrate the use and application of this model| and the need for de facto and international standards to reduce CO(2) emissions through good network planning. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12189,2011,3,3,Analyzing a self-managed CHP system for greenhouse cultivation as a profitable way to reduce CO(2)-emissions,To counter global warming| a transition to a low-carbon economy is needed. The greenhouse sector can contribute by installing Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems| known for their excellent energy efficiency. Due to the recent European liberalization of the energy market| glass horticulturists have the opportunity to sell excess electricity to the market and by tailored policy and support measures| regional governments can fill the lack of technical and economic knowledge| causing initial resistance. This research investigates the economic and environmental opportunities using two detailed cases applying a self managed cogeneration system. The Net Present Value is calculated to investigate the economic feasibility. The Primary Energy Saving| the CO(2) Emission Reduction indicator and an Emission Balance are applied to quantify the environmental impact. The results demonstrate that a self-managed CHP system is economic viable and that CO(2) emissions are reduced. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12681,2011,4,4,AND I SAY TO MYSELF: "WHAT A FRACTIONAL WORLD!",This paper discusses several complex systems in the perspective of fractional dynamics. For prototype systems are considered the cases of deoxyribonucleic acid decoding| financial evolution| earthquakes events| global warming trend| and musical rhythms. The application of the Fourier transform and of the power law trendlines leads to an assertive representation of the dynamics and to a simple comparison of their characteristics. Moreover| the gallery of different systems| both natural and man made| demonstrates the richness of phenomena that can be described and studied with the tools of fractional calculus. 12309,2011,2,2,Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000,Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing(1). Yet climate models used to study the attribution problem typically do not resolve the weather systems associated with damaging events(2) such as the UK floods of October and November 2000. Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766(3|4)| these floods damaged nearly 10|000 properties across that region| disrupted services severely| and caused insured losses estimated at 1.3 pound billion (refs 5| 6). Although the flooding was deemed a 'wakeup call' to the impacts of climate change at the time(7)| such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming| but fail(8|9) to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology(4|10) associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step| physically based 'probabilistic event attribution' framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing(11|12)| we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather| both under realistic conditions| and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain| but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%| and in two out of three cases by more than 90%. 3445,2011,2,3,Anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems in Antarctica,Antarctica is the most isolated continent on Earth| but it has not escaped the negative impacts of human activity. The unique marine ecosystems of Antarctica and their endemic faunas are affected on local and regional scales by overharvesting| pollution| and the introduction of alien species. Global climate change is also having deleterious impacts: rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification already threaten benthic and pelagic food webs. The Antarctic Treaty System can address local- to regional-scale impacts| but it does not have purview over the global problems that impinge on Antarctica| such as emissions of greenhouse gases. Failure to address human impacts simultaneously at all scales will lead to the degradation of Antarctic marine ecosystems and the homogenization of their composition| structure| and processes with marine ecosystems elsewhere. 3381,2011,3,2,Application of Amine-Tethered Solid Sorbents for Direct CO(2) Capture from the Ambient Air,While current carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies for large point sources can help address the impact of CO(2) buildup on global climate change| these technologies can at best slow the rate of increase of the atmospheric CO(2) concentration. In contrast| the direct CO(2) capture from ambient air offers the potential to be a truly carbon negative technology. We propose here that amine-based solid adsorbents have significant promise as key components of a hypothetical air capture process. Specifically| the CO(2) capture characteristics of hyperbranched aminosilica (HAS) materials are evaluated here using CO(2) mixtures that simulate ambient atmospheric concentrations (400 ppm CO(2) = "air capture") as well as more traditional conditions simulating flue gas (10% CO(2)). The air capture experiments demonstrate that the adsorption capacity of HAS adsorbents are only marginally influenced even with a significant dilution of the CO(2) concentration by a factor of 250| while capturing CO(2) reversibly without significant degradation of performance in multicyclic operation. These results suggest that solid amine-based air capture processes| have the potential to be an effective approach to extracting CO(2) from the ambient air. 12188,2011,4,4,Application of DSC-TG and NMR to study the soil organic matter,The environmental concern on soil exploitation| linked to global warming by the Kyoto protocol| is responsible for increasing interest in the understanding of the role of the composition and structure of the soil organic matter (SOM) on soil carbon| C| dynamics. Thermal analysis and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) are applied to study the thermal properties| the structure and composition of the SOM of six samples with different C contents in order to improve the interpretation of results given by thermal analysis. Results showed that the direct integral of the combustion peaks obtained by DSC and the percentage of SOM given by TG were both directly related to the quantity of total soil C. Thus| soils with higher C content showed higher energy content too. The combustion temperatures of the curves given by DSC are those reported for labile OM. NMR results indicated the presence of aliphatic C| carbohydrates| and a weak signal in the aromatic C band in all the samples that was not detected in the DSC curves. Only two samples showed carboxyl/carbonyl C which was not detected by DSC also. 12073,2011,3,2,Application of exergy balances for the optimization of non-adiabatic small turbomachines operation,In the current context of global warming due to CO(2) (carbon dioxide) emissions| mainly produced by power plants and road transportation| it is imperative to optimize the operation of thermal engines in general and of gas turbines in particular. This requires accurate knowledge of their performance. In the case of turbomachines| performance is usually estimated by assuming an adiabatic flow. This assumption is inappropriate| however| for small-scale machines such as turbochargers and micro gas turbines. This study presents the influence of heat transfer on their performance. The concept of entropic temperature is developed and a general exergy analysis conducted in order to quantify accurately the available energy dissipation. Both a turbocharger and a gas turbine with internal heat transfer are investigated. Under the adiabatic assumption| the model results are overestimated. New gas turbine maps have therefore been generated and new operating points defined. The trends of the modeling results thus obtained are compared with the performance measured on a micro gas turbine with and without insulation. Fuel consumption is higher with internal heat transfer. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 3401,2011,4,4,Application of Landsat ETM plus in Monitoring of Desertification in Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China,Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is a transitional and interlaced zone of agricultural cultivation region and grazing region. The ecotone is a complex containing several ecosystems. Soil desertification has become a serious problem that endangered sustainable development in the ecotone. The area of desertification land has been increasing year after year in agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China. This problem concerns the ecological environment| economic development and living quality of people in northern and central eastern of China. For these reasons| ecotone has recently become a focus of research of restoration ecology and global climate change. Remote sensing monitoring of desertification land is a key technique to collect the status and development of sandy land| providing scientific bases for the national desertification control. Landsat ETM+ is an advanced multispectral remote sensing system for the research of regional scale and has been widely used in many fields| such as geologic surveys| mapping| vegetation monitoring| etc. In the present| the authors introduce that spectral characteristics| desertification information extraction| desertification classification and development analyses in detail| and summarizes the study progresses discusses the problems and trends. 12652,2011,3,4,Applications of Laser Assisted Metal Rapid Tooling Process to Manufacture of Molding & Forming Tools - State of the Art,Recently| researchers related to the development of eco-friendly molding and forming tools have refocused on the laser assisted metal rapid tooling process to cope the global warming and the resource depletions. The advantageous inherent features of the laser assisted metal rapid tooling process| include an additive proves| switchable supply material and material deposition along an arbitrary trajectory| provide the tool designer and manufacturer with a chance to overcome the limitations of the conventional molding and forming tools from viewpoints of the energy consumption| the environmental impact and the material usage. This paper presents recent researches related to the application of laser assisted metal rapid tooling process to manufacture molding and forming tools. In addition| key technologies of important applications are discussed. Finally| the future issues of the laser assisted metal rapid tooling process related to the development of eco-friendly molding and forming tools are described. 11899,2011,3,3,Applying heat pipes to a novel concept aero engine PART 1-Design of a heat-pipe heat exchanger for an intercooled aero engine,Civil aviation has instilled new perceptions of a smaller world| creating new opportunities for trade| exchange of cultures and travelling for leisure. However| it also brought with it an unforeseen impact on the environment. Aviation currently contributes to about 3.5% of the global warming attributed from human activities. With the forecasted rate of growth| this is expected to rise to about 15% over the next 50 years. Although it is projected that the annual improvements in aircraft fuel efficiency are of the order of 1-2%| it is suggested that the current gas turbine design is fully exploited and further improvements are difficult to achieve. A new generation of aero engine core concepts that can operate at higher thermal efficiencies and lower emissions is required. One possibility of achieving higher core efficiencies is through the use of an intercooled (IC) core at high overall pressure ratios (OPR). The concept engine| expected to enter into service around 2020| will make use of a conventional heat exchanger (HEX) for the intercooler. This paper seeks to introduce a heat pipe heat exchanger (HPHEX) as an alternative design of the intercooler. The proposed HPHEX design takes advantage of the convenience of the geometry of miniature heat pipes to provide a reduction in pressure losses and weight when compared to conventional HEX. The HPHEX will be made of a number of stages| each stage being made of a large number of miniature heat pipes in radial configuration| that will extend from the inter-compressor duct to the bypass split| thus eliminating any ducting to and from the intercooler. This design offers up to 32% reduction in hot pressure losses| 34% reduction in cold pressure losses and over 41% reduction in weight. 11567,2011,3,3,Appraisal of Alternative Building Materials for Reduction of CO(2) Emissions by Case Modeling,Global Warming is one of the major concerns in environmental issues. Its effects are being exposed faster than anticipated recently. It causes adverse ecological and socioeconomical effects. The 4(th) Assessment Report issued by the U.N. 's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that it is appropriate to define Global Warming was caused by greenhouse gases due to human activities which plays a significant role by over loading the atmosphere with carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions since 1750. One of the most effective ways to prevent global warming is to replace materials which emit high level of CO| with those of low level CO(2) emission materials. Usually| CO(2) emission can be presented as embodied CO(2) (ECO(2)) and operational CO(2) emissions. In this paper| appraisal of the embodied CO(2) emission level of using traditional building materials (i.e. cement| steel| glass and timber) and alternative building materials (i.e. slag cement| recycle steel| cullet glass and plywood formwork) have been made by case modelling. The results show that the amount of CO(2) emission is reduced after using alternative building materials by more than one-third (34.8%). 3437,2011,3,3,Approaches to classifying and restoring degraded tropical forests for the anticipated REDD plus climate change mitigation mechanism,Inclusion of improved forest management as a way to enhance carbon sinks in the Copenhagen Accord of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (December 2009) suggests that forest restoration will play a role in global climate change mitigation under the post-Kyoto agreement. Although discussions about restoration strategies often pertain solely to severely degraded tropical forests and invoke only the enrichment planting option| different approaches to restoration are needed to counter the full range of degrees of degradation. We propose approaches for restoration of forests that range from being slightly to severely degraded. Our methods start with ceasing the causes of degradation and letting forests regenerate on their own| progress through active management of natural regeneration in degraded areas to accelerate tree regeneration and growth| and finally include the stage of degradation at which re-planting is necessary. We argue that when the appropriate techniques are employed| forest restoration is cost-effective relative to conventional planting| provides abundant social and ecological co-benefits| and results in the sequestration of substantial amounts of carbon. For forest restoration efforts to succeed| a supportive post-Kyoto agreement is needed as well as appropriate national policies| institutional arrangements| and local participation. 3304,2011,4,3,Are golf courses a source or sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide? A modelling approach,Sports facilities have been shown to have a positive impact on local biodiversity| quality of life| and the economy. Their impact on global carbon balances is less clearly understood. Increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been linked with global climate change. Currently there is a debate as to whether amenity turf is a net source or a net sink for atmospheric CO(2). The turf grass of a natural sports pitch will sequester carbon through photosynthesis| but there are numerous emission sources associated with the management of turf which release CO(2) into the atmosphere. These include the engines used to power mechanized operations such as mowing and spraying| the application of agrochemicals| including fertilizers| and the disposal of waste. In order to determine whether a real-world example of a sports facility was a source or sink of carbon a mechanistic mass balance model was developed. Analysis indicated that the areas of the golf course that received the most management attention were a net source of carbon emissions. The magnitude of these releases was significantly different on an equal-area basis (p < 0.01). The net carbon budget for turf grass areas across the whole golf course accounting for the sequestration by the turfgrass was -33.01 Mg C/year. The mature trees that formed an integral part of the landscape of the modelled course had a significant impact on the net carbon balance| resulting in overall net sequestration of -177.3 Mg C/year for the whole golf course| equivalent to -1.93 Mg C/ha/year. The variability in the size| shape| and vegetation composition of different golf courses has a considerable impact on their net carbon balance| and the resultant environmental impact of sports facilities must be assessed on an individual basis. 3160,2011,4,2,Are secular correlations between sunspots| geomagnetic activity| and global temperature significant?,Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction| measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity| has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number| geomagnetic activity| and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008| solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity| properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance| but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically-significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity| Pearson p < 10(-4)| but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant| p = 0.9954| (p = 0.8171). In other words| straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number| geomagnetic-activity| and global-temperature data| three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation| or| (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature| or| (3) the null hypothesis| recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction. Citation: Love| J. J.| K. Mursula| V. C. Tsai| and D. M. Perkins (2011)| Are secular correlations between sunspots| geomagnetic activity| and global temperature significant?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L21703| doi:10.1029/2011GL049380. 12290,2011,2,4,Arthropod colonisation of a debris-covered glacier,The largest debris-covered glacier in the Alps (Miage Glacier| western Italian Alps) has been studied to explore the effects of debris-cover extent and depth on the spatial distribution of ground-dwelling arthropods. A multitaxa approach has been used to compare taxa richness and distribution to the functional role (dietary habits) of each taxon along the glacier tongue. Spiders and ground beetles have been studied in detail. Taxa richness declines with distance from the wooded sites (in front of the glacier tongue) to those above the glacier tongue. At each of the supraglacial sites| spiders| ground beetles| aphids| springtails and flies were found. A change in the dominance of the different functional roles was observed along the tongue. Wooded sites are characterised by predatory (e.g. spiders| beetles)| detrivore (e.g. springtails and certain flies)| phytophagous (e.g. aphids| certain beetles) and parasitoid (e.g. certain wasps) assemblages| whereas at the debris-covered sites| aphids| flies and springtails are likely to be prey for spiders and beetles. The species richness of the predominant predators (spiders and beetles) shows a positive relationship with vegetation cover and debris thickness. Two mutually exclusive spider and ground beetle assemblages were found; one within the debris cover and one within the wooded sites. In our opinion| debris-covered glaciers are acting as a refuge area for the cryophil stenotherm species living at higher altitudes which descend the glacial tongue to lower elevations. A similar hypothesis supports the biogeographical interpretation of the distribution of many boreo-alpine relict species in the Alps. We discuss our results in the light of possible future scenarios which suggest an increase in debris cover with global warming. 12629,2011,2,4,Artificial soils to assess temperature sensitivity of the decomposition of model organic compounds: effects of chemical recalcitrance and clay-mineral composition,Understanding the temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition is important to predict the response of soil carbon (C) dynamics to projected global warming. There is no consensus| however| as to whether or not the decomposition of recalcitrant soil C is as sensitive to temperature as is that of labile soil C. Soil C is stabilized by three mechanisms: chemical recalcitrance| mineral interaction and physical accessibility. We used artificial soils with controlled compositions to assess the effects of chemical recalcitrance (cellulose compared with lignin) and clay-mineral composition with montmorillonite (M) or kaolinite (K) on the decomposition of model organic compounds at 2| 12| 22 and 32 degrees C. When only substrate composition was varied| the presence of cellulose enhanced the decomposition rate of lignin. Treatments with relatively large amounts of cellulose were very sensitive to temperature only at low temperatures (212 degrees C)| whereas treatments with relatively large amounts of lignin had similar temperature sensitivities at all temperatures. When only clay-mineral composition was varied| CO(2) production rates were greatest in soils containing kaolinite-montmorillonite mixtures (10% K:20% M) and least in soils containing kaolinite only at temperatures >= 12 degrees C. Clay mixtures and pure montmorillonite treatments had their greatest temperature sensitivities at 2-12 degrees C| whereas pure kaolinite treatments had the greatest temperature sensitivities at 1222 degrees C. Temperature sensitivities at the highest temperatures (22-32 degrees C) were all small (Q10 < 1.1 on days 30 and 140). Artificial soils with controlled but flexible compositions may serve as simple and useful models for evaluating SOM dynamics with a minimum of confounding factors. 3241,2011,3,4,Assess the potential of solar irrigation systems for sustaining pasture lands in arid regions - A case study in Northwestern China,The combined impact of global climate change and increasing human activities has led to the severe deterioration of grasslands in China. Using the solar irrigation systems is an effective way for sustaining pasture lands in arid regions. A solar irrigation system is the device that uses the solar cell from the sun's radiation to generate electricity for driving the pump. And photovoltaic pump consists of an array of photovoltaic cells and pumps water from a well or reservoir for irrigation. Although ecologists and organizations constantly work and find ways to conserve grasslands through irrigation systems that use solar energy| issues on water resources are not yet thoroughly discussed. This paper takes into account the main factors in the study of water resources| including precipitation and groundwater| to analyze the feasibility of using a photovoltaic (PV) pumping irrigation. The appropriate area for such a PV pumping irrigation in Qinghai Province is also presented. The results show that the grasslands appropriate for PV pumping cover about 8.145 million ha| accounting for 22.3% of the grasslands in the entire province. Finally| the problems and countermeasures of PV pumping irrigation| including the impact on regional water balance| groundwater level and highland permafrost| are also considered. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12152,2011,2,4,ASSESSING CLIMATE RISK AND CLIMATE CHANGE USING RAINFALL DATA - A CASE STUDY FROM ZAMBIA,Rainfall variability both within and between seasons| is reflected in highly variable crop growth and yields in rain fed agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa and results in varying degrees of weather-induced risk associated with a wide range of crop| soil and water management innovations. In addition there is both growing evidence and concern that changes in rainfall patterns associated with global warming may substantively aka the nature of such risk. Eighty nine| years of daily rainfall data from a site in southern Zambia are analysed. The analyses illustrate approaches to assessing the extent of possible trends in rainfall patterns and the calculation of weather-induced risk associated with the inter- and intra-seasonal variability of the rainfall amounts. Trend analyses use monthly rainfall totals and the number of rain clays in each month. No simple trends were build. The daily data were then processed to examine important rain dependent aspects of crop production such as the date of the start of the rains and the risk of a long dry spell| both following planting and around flowering. The same approach is used to assess the risk of examples of crop disease in instances when a 'weather trigger' for the disease can be specified. A crop water satisfaction index is also used to compare risks from choices of crops with different maturity lengths and cropping strategies. Finally a different approach to the calculations of these risks fits a Markov chain model to the occurrence of rain| results then derived from this model. The analyses shows the relevance of this latter approach when relatively short daily rainfall records are available and is illustrated through a comparison of the effects of El Nino| La Nina and Ordinary years on rainfall distribution patterns. 12294,2011,3,4,Assessing energy efficiencies and greenhouse gas emissions under bioethanol-oriented paddy rice production in northern Japan,To establish energetically and environmentally viable paddy rice-based bioethanol production systems in northern Japan| it is important to implement appropriately selected agronomic practice options during the rice cultivation step. In this context| effects of rice variety (conventional vs. high-yielding) and rice straw management (return to vs. removal from the paddy field) on energy inputs from fuels and consumption of materials| greenhouse gas emissions (fuel and material consumption-derived CO(2) emissions as well as paddy soil CH(4) and N(2)O emissions) and ethanol yields were assessed. The estimated ethanol yield from the high-yielding rice variety| "Kita-aoba" was 2.94 kL ha(-1)| a 32% increase from the conventional rice variety| "Kirara 397". Under conventional rice production in northern Japan (conventional rice variety and straw returned to the paddy)| raising seedlings| mechanical field operations| transportation of harvested unhulled brown rice and consumption of materials (seeds| fertilizers| biocides and agricultural machinery) amounted to 28.5 GJ ha(-1) in energy inputs. The total energy input was increased by 14% by using the high-yielding variety and straw removal| owing to increased requirements for fuels in harvesting and transporting harvested rice as well as in collecting| loading and transporting rice straw. In terms of energy efficiency| the variation among rice variety and straw management scenarios regarding rice varieties and rice straw management was small (28.5-32.6 GJ ha(-1) or 10.1-14.0 MJ L(-1)). Meanwhile| CO(2)-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions varied considerably from scenario to scenario| as straw management had significant impacts on CH(4) emissions from paddy soils. When rice straw was incorporated into the soil| total CO(2)-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions for "Kirara 397" and "Kita-aoba" were 25.5 and 28.2 Mg CO(2) ha(-1)| respectively; however| these emissions were reduced notably for the two varieties when rice straw was removed from the paddy fields in an effort to mitigate CH(4) emissions. Thus| rice straw removal avers itself a key practice with respect to lessening the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in paddy rice-based ethanol production systems in northern Japan. More crucially| the rice straw removed is available for ethanol production and generation of heat energy with a biomass boiler| all elements required for biomass-to-ethanol transformation steps including saccharification| fermentation and distillation. This indicates opportunities for further improvement in energy efficiency and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions under whole rice plant-based bioethanol production systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3223,2011,4,4,Assessing Greenland ice mass loss by means of point-mass modeling: a viable methodology,Greenland ice mass loss is one of the most serious phenomena of present-day global climate change. In this context| both the quantification of overall deglaciation rates and its spatial localization are highly significant. We have thoroughly investigated the technique of point-mass modeling in order to derive mass-balance patterns from GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) gravimetry. The method infers mass variations on the Earth's surface from gravitational signals at satellite altitude. In order to solve for point-mass changes| we applied least-squares adjustment. Due to downward continuation| numerical stabilization of the inversion process gains particular significance. We stabilized the ill-posed problem by Tikhonov regularization. Our simulation and real data experiments show that point-mass modeling provides both rational deglaciation rates and high-resolution spatial mass variation patterns. 3218,2011,2,4,Assessing potential impacts of climatic change on subalpine forests on the eastern Tibetan Plateau,Forest gap models have been used widely in the study of forest dynamics| including predicting long-term succession patterns and assessing the potential impacts of climate change on forest structure and composition. However| little effort is devoted to predict forest dynamics in the high elevation areas| although they have the sensitive response to global climate change. In the present study| based on a modified height-diameter function| we developed a new version (FAREAST-GFSM) of the forest patch model| FAREAST for simulating the changes of subalpine forests. The observed data from the Gongga Mt. Alpine Station were also used to test model precision. With the improved performance of FAREAST-GFSM| we explored the impact of three warming scenarios on subalpine forest on the eastern Tibetan plateau within a 100-year period. The study result indicates that the effects of climate change were evident on subalpine forests in the high elevation areas. The response of different species to the warming climate might eventually transform the subalpine Abies fabric forest into Betula utilis forest similar to that which is now widely distributed in the eastern Tibetan Plateau mountainous areas with the relatively lower elevation. Subalpine forests could move to higher and colder areas| which are currently tundra. 12409,2011,3,2,Assessing soil carbon stocks under pastures through orbital remote sensing,The growing demand of world food and energy supply increases the threat of global warming due to higher greenhouse gas emissions by agricultural activity. Therefore| it is widely admitted that agriculture must establish a new paradigm in terms of environmental sustainability that incorporate techniques for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. This article addresses to the scientific demand to estimate in a fast and inexpensive manner current and potential soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in degraded pastures| using remote sensing techniques. Four pastures on sandy soils under Brazilian Cerrado vegetation in Sao Paulo state were chosen due to their SOC sequestration potential| which was characterized for the soil depth 0-50 cm. Subsequently| a linear regression analysis was performed between SOC and Leaf Area Index (LAI) measured in the field (LAI(field)) and derived by satellite (LAI(satellite)) as well as SOC and pasture reflectance in six spectra from 450 nm - 2350 nm| using the Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) sensor of satellite Landsat 7. A high correlation between SOC and LAI(field) (R(2) = 0.9804) and LAI(satellite) (R(2) = 0.9812) was verified. The suitability of satellite derived LAI for SOC determination leads to the assumption| that orbital remote sensing is a very promising SOC estimation technique from regional to global scale. 12792,2011,3,4,Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign,The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO(2)) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products| depending on their location. "Indoor products" included a convertible cot/bed| a kitchen cabinet| an office table| a living room furniture| a headboard| youth room accessories and a wine crate| while the "Outdoor products" analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology| using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results| metals| boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment| with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore| eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail| accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO(2) emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells| the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11907,2011,2,4,Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: Lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories,Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change| relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature mortality relationship| particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane| Australia| a subtropical city| 1996-2004. For a 1 degrees C increase above the threshold| the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% Cl: 4.3%| 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 C decrease below the threshold| the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% Cl: 1.9%| 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% Cl: 0.9%| 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases| respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12399,2011,3,2,Assessing the scenario concerning environmental sustainability in Malaysia,There is strong scientific evidence that energy consumption and production are often related to greenhouse emissions. It has been argued that the cost of taking smart| effective cooperative action towards reducing global warming should be manageable. Following an effective approach| our work investigates the scenario of environmental sustainability in Malaysia and reassesses energy policy and alternative energy sources such as the utilization of oil palm (that is as a source of renewable energy) to reduce the economic and environmental burden. Our efforts try to lessen the gap between greenhouse gas mitigation and sustainable development| focusing on changing conventional energy instruments. This paper may be useful in the formulation of policies on renewable energy in Malaysia and possibly elsewhere. 3341,2011,2,4,Assessment of change in design flood frequency under climate change using a multivariate downscaling model and a precipitation-runoff model,Precipitation and runoff are key elements in the hydrologic cycle because of their important roles in water supply| flood prevention| river restoration| and ecosystem management. Global climate change| widely accepted to be happening| is anticipated to have enormous consequences on future hydrologic patterns. Studies on the potential changes in global| regional| and local hydrologic patterns under global climate change scenarios have been an intense area of research in recent years. The present study contributes to this research topic through evaluation of design flood under climate change. The study utilizes a weather state-based| stochastic multivariate model as a conditional probability model for simulating the precipitation field. An important premise of this study is that large-scale climatic patterns serve as a major driver of persistent year-to-year changes in precipitation probabilities. Since uncertainty estimation in the study of climate change is needed to examine the reliability of the outcomes| this study also applies a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme to the widely used SAC-SMA (Sacramento soil moisture accounting) precipitation-runoff model. A case study is also performed with the Soyang Dam watershed in South Korea as the study basin. Finally| a comprehensive discussion on design flood under climate change is made. 12243,2011,3,4,Assessment of climate change impact on building energy use and mitigation measures in subtropical climates,Likely increase in energy use in air-conditioned office buildings due to climate change in subtropical Hong Kong was estimated for two emissions scenarios. Towards the end of the 21st century (i.e. 2091 - 2100)| the average annual building energy use would be 6.6% and 8.1% more than that in 1979-2008 for low and medium forcing| respectively. Potential mitigation measures concerning the building envelope| internal condition| lighting load density (LLD) and chiller plant were considered. Thermal insulation to the external wall would not be effective to mitigate the expected increase in building energy use due to climate change. Controlling the amount of solar heat gain through the window would be a better option. Lowering the current LLD of 15 W/m(2) to about 13 W/m(2) would result in substantial energy savings because of the reduction in electricity consumption for both electric lighting and air-conditioning. As for the chiller plant| the coefficient of performance (COP) should be improved from the current minimum requirement of 4.7 to at least 5.5 to alleviate the impact of climate change. Raising the summer set point temperature (SST) to 25.5 degrees C or higher would have high energy saving and hence mitigation potential| which could be readily applied to both new and existing buildings. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12121,2011,2,4,Assessment of GCM simulations of annual and seasonal rainfall and daily rainfall distribution across south-east Australia,Global warming can potentially lead to changes in future rainfall and runoff and can significantly impact the regional hydrology and future availability of water resources. All the large-scale climate impact studies use the future climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) to estimate the impact on future water availability. This paper presents results from a detailed assessment to investigate the capability of 15 GCMs to reproduce the observed historical annual and seasonal mean rainfalls| the observed annual rainfall series and the observed daily rainfall distribution across south-east Australia. The assessment shows that the GCMs can generally reproduce the spatial patterns of mean seasonal and annual rainfalls. However| there can be considerable differences between the mean rainfalls simulated by the GCMs and the observed rainfall. The results clearly show that none of the GCMs can simulate the actual annual rainfall time series or the trend in the annual rainfall. The GCMs can also generally reproduce the observed daily (ranked) rainfall distribution at the GCM scale. The GCMs are ranked against their abilities to reproduce the observed historical mean annual rainfall and daily rainfall distribution| and| based on the combined score| the better GCMs include MPI-ECHAM5| MIUB| CCCMA_T47| INMCM| CSIRO-MK3.0| CNRM| CCCMA_T63 and GFDL 2.0 and those with poorer performances are MRI| IPSL| GISS-AOM| MIROC-M| NCAR-PCM1| IAP and NCAR-CCSM. However| the reduction in the combined score as we move from the best-to the worst-performing GCMs is gradual| and there is no evident cut-off point or threshold to remove GCMs from climate impact studies. There is some agreement between the results here and many similar studies comparing the performance of GCMs in Australia| but the results are not always consistent and do significantly disagree with several of the studies. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 12780,2011,3,3,Assessment of Portuguese thermal building legislation in an energetic and environmental perspective,The aim of this study is to assess the consistency of Portuguese thermal building legislation in terms of energy and environmental performance. To illustrate this| a case study has been carried out for different scenarios of a dwelling home located in an extreme climate zone (I3| V1 north) in Portugal with a T3 typology: four occupants and net floor area of 150 m(2)| modelled according to Regulation Thermal Performance Characteristics of Buildings and a Life Cycle Assessment approach. The results show that the Portuguese thermal building legislation can be considered consistent in terms of energy efficiency and environmental performance if we take the damage categories into account - "human health" or "ecosystem quality" or the impact category - "emission into air". It cannot be considered consistent if we take the damage category into account - "resources" or the impact category - "CO(2) eq" (equivalent carbon dioxide emissions)/"climate change"/"global warming". (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12731,2011,4,4,Assessment of Vulnerability and Integrated Management of Coastal Dunes in Veracruz| Mexico,Dune systems are essential to the ecological balance and sediment inputs of coastal environments and they provide numerous environmental services; however| their existence is threatened by natural and human stressors that contribute to their degradation. Future impacts are expected to be greater because of global climate change in association with further rises in sea level. Beaches and dune systems occupy large areas along the coastline of the state of Veracruz on the Gulf of Mexico. The aim of this study is to establish the intrinsic vulnerability of nine dune fields in Veracruz to current and future impacts and to assess their integrated management status. These dune-beach systems are more vulnerable to the effects of economic activities and land use change than to those induced by natural forces. Results show that six of these dune systems have medium vulnerability and an ecological conservation policy should be adopted; the other three| with high or very high vulnerability| are candidates for a restoration policy. 12863,2011,2,4,ASSESSMENT OF WATER QUALITY OF EAST PART OF THE ERGENE BASIN| TURKEY,Although Turkey| particularly the Thrace region| seems to be rich in soil and water resources in comparison to its location| population growth| pollution caused by industrialisation and possible global warming threaten the high potential cultivated lands and important water resources. Very rapid industrialisation process has been occurring in recent years in Thrace| especially in the east part| as in other regions of Turkey. This development creates many environmental problems. The region is close to the EU countries which are the most important importers of Turkey and besides it is very near to Istanbul that comprises approximately 1/7 of Turkish population. Nearness of the region accelerates development of chemicals and fertilisers used in agricultural and industrial production which have caused quick pollution of groundwater resources together with housing and industrial wastewaters. In this study 17 groundwater and 2 surface water sampling points in the Cerkezkoy-Corlu region of Thrace were chosen. Water samples were collected during a 12-month period. All samples were analysed for Cu| Fe| Zn| Mn| Cr| Cd| Pb| Ca2+| Mg2+| K+| HCO3-| SO4| Cl| and NO3 ions. Analyses show that Cu| Cr and Pb contents in some samples exceed TSE| WHO and EPA standards. 11689,2011,4,4,Atmospheric Chemistry of (Z)-CF(3)CH=CHCF(3): OH Radical Reaction Rate Coefficient and Global Warming Potential,Rate coefficients| k| for the gas-phase reaction of the OH radical with (Z)-CF(3)CH-CH=CF(3) (cis-1|1|1|4|4|4-hexafluoro-2-butene) were measured under pseudo-first-order conditions in OH using pulsed laser photolysis (PLP) to produce OH and laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) to detect it. Rate coefficients were measured over a range of temperatures (212-374 K) and bath gas pressures (20-200 Torr; He| N(2)) and found to be independent of pressure over this range of conditions. The rate coefficient has a non-Arrhenius behavior that is well-described by the expression k(1)(T) = (5.73 +/- 0.60) x 10(-19) x T(2) x exp[(678 +/- 10)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) where k(1)(296 K) was measured to be (4.91 +/- 0.50) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and the uncertainties are at the 2 sigma level and include estimated systematic errors. Rate coefficients for the analogous OD radical reaction were determined over a range of temperatures (262-374 K) at 100 Torr (He) to be k(2)(T) = (4.81 +/- 0.20) x 10(-19) x T(2) x exp[(776 +/- 15)/T]| with k(2)(296 K) = (5.73 +/- 0.50) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). OH radical rate coefficients were also measured at 296| 345| and 375 K using a relative rate technique and found to be in good agreement with the PLP-LIF results. A room-temperature rate coefficient for the O(3) + (Z)-CF(3)CH-CH=CF(3) reaction was measured using an absolute method with O(3) in excess to be <6 x 10(-21) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The atmospheric lifetime of (Z)-CF(3)CH-CHCF(3) due to loss by OH reaction was estimated to be similar to 20 days. Infrared absorption spectra of (Z)-CF(3)CH-CH=CF(3) measured in this work were used to determine a (Z)-CF(3)CH-CH=CF(3) global warming potential (GWP) of similar to 9 for the 100 year time horizon. A comparison of the OH reactivity of (Z)-CF(3)CH-CHCF(3) with other unsaturated fluorinated compounds is presented. 12528,2011,4,4,Atmospheric chemistry of C(2)F(5)CH(2)OCH(3) (HFE-365mcf),FTIR smog chamber techniques were used to measure k(Cl + C(2)F(5)CH(2)OCH(3)) = (2.52 +/- 0.37) x 10(-11) and k(OH + C(2)F(5)CH(2)OCH(3)) = (5.78 +/- 1.02) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) in 700 Torr of air diluent at 296 +/- 1 K. The atmospheric lifetime of C(2)F(5)CH(2)OCH(3) is estimated to be 20 days. Reaction of chlorine atoms with C(2)F(5)CH(2)OCH(3) proceeds 18 +/- 2% at the -CH(2)-group and 82 +/- 2% at the -CH(3) group. Reaction of OH radicals with C(2)F(5)CH(2)OCH(3) proceeds 44 +/- 5% at the -CH(2)-group and 56 +/- 5% at the -CH(3) group. The atmospheric fate of C(2)F(5)CH(2)OCH(2)O radicals is reaction with O(2) to give C(2)F(5)CH(2)OCHO. The atmospheric fate of C(2)F(5)CH(O)OCH(3) radicals is C-C bond-cleavage to give C(2)F(5) radicals and CH(3)OCHO (methyl formate). The infrared spectrum was recorded and used to estimate a global warming potential of 6 (100 year time horizon) for C(2)F(5)CH(2)OCH(3). 12382,2011,4,4,Atmospheric Chemistry of CF(3)CF=CH(2) and (Z)-CF(3)CF=CHF: Cl and NO(3) Rate Coefficients| Cl Reaction Product Yields| and Thermochemical Calculations,Rate coefficients| k| for the gas-phase reactions of Cl atoms and NO(3) radicals with 2|3|3|3-tetrafluoropropene| CF(3)CF=CH(2) (HFO-1234yf)| and 1|2|3|3|3-pentafluoropropene| (Z)-CF(3)CF=CHF (HFO-1225ye)| are reported. Cl-atom rate coefficients were measured in the fall-off region as a function of temperature (220-380 K) and pressure (50-630 Torr; N(2)| 0(2)| and synthetic air) using a relative rate method. The measured rate coefficients are well represented by the fall-off parameters k(0)(T) = 6.5 x 10(-28) (T/300)(-6.9) cm(6) molecule(-2) s(-1) and k(infinity)(T) = 7.7 x 10(-11) (T/300)(-0.65) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for CF(3)CF=CH(2) and k(0)(T) = 3 x 10(-27) (T/300)(-6.5) cm(6) molecule(-2) s(-1) and k(infinity)(T) = 4.15 x 10(-11) (T/300)(-0.5) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for (Z)-CF(3)C=CHF with F(c) = 0.6. Reaction product yields were measured in the presence of O(2) to be (98 +/- 7)% for CF(3)C(O)F and (61 +/- 4)% for HC(O)Cl in the CF(3)CF=CH(2) reaction and (108 +/- 8)% for CF(3)C(O)F and (112 +/- 8)% for HC(O)F in the (Z)-CF(3)CF=CHF reaction| where the quoted uncertainties are 2 sigma (95% confidence level) and include estimated systematic errors. NO(3) reaction rate coefficients were determined using absolute and relative rate methods. Absolute measurements yielded upper limits for both reactions between 233 and 353 K| while the relative rate measurements yielded k(3)(295 K) = (2.6 +/- 0.25) x 10(-17) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and k(4)(295 K) = (4.2 +/- 0.5) x 10(-18) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for CF(3)CF=CH(2) and (Z)-CF(3)CF=CHF| respectively. The Cl-atom reaction with CF(3)CF=CH(2) and (Z)-CF(3)CF=CHF leads to decreases in their atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials and formation of a chlorine-containing product| HC(O)Cl| for CF(3)CF=CH(2). The NO(3) reaction has been shown to have a negligible impact on the atmospheric lifetimes of CF(3)CF=CH(2) and (Z)-CF(3)CF=CHF. The energetics for the reaction of Cl| NO(3)| and OH with CF(3)CF=CH(2) and (Z)-CF3CF=CHF in the presence of O(2) were investigated using density functional theory (DFT). 12123,2011,4,4,Atmospheric chemistry of hexafluorocyclobutene| octafluorocyclopentene| and hexafluoro-1|3-butadiene,The relative rate method was used to measure k(Cl + hexafluorocyclobutene) = (8.88 +/- 0.69) x 10 x 13| k(Cl + octafluorocyclopentene) = (1.02 +/- 0.11) x 10 (12)| k(Cl + hexafluoro-1|3- butadiene) = (7.28 +/- 0.99) x 10 (11)| k(OH + hexafluorocyclobutene) = (8.6 +/- 1.6) x 10 14| k(OH + octafluorocyclopentene) = (1.01 +/- 0.16) x 10 (13)| and k(OH + hexafluoro- 1|3- butadiene) = (9.64 +/- 1.76) x 10 (12) cm(3) molecule (1) s (1) in 700 Torr N(2)| or air| diluent at 295 K. The atmospheric lifetimes of hexafluorocyclobutene| octafluorocyclopentene| and hexafluoro- 1|3- butadiene were estimated to be 135| 104| and 1.1 days| respectively. The 100 year time horizon global warming potentials for hexafluorocyclobutene and octafluorocyclopentene are 42 and 28. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved. 11580,2011,3,3,Atmospheric Emissions of Nitrous Oxide| Methane| and Carbon Dioxide from Different Nitrogen Fertilizers,Alternative N fertilizers that produce low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soil are needed to reduce the impacts of agricultural practices on global warming potential (GWP). We quantified and compared growing season fluxes of N(2)O| CH(4)| and CO(2) resulting from applications of different N fertilizer sources| urea (U)| urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN)| ammonium nitrate (NH(4)NO(3))| poultry litter| and commercially available| enhanced-efficiency N fertilizers as follows: polymer-coated urea (ESN)| SuperU| UAN + AgrotainPlus| and poultry litter + AgrotainPlus in a no-till corn (Zea mays L.) production system. Greenhouse gas fluxes were measured during two growing seasons using static| vented chambers. The ESN delayed the N(2)O flux peak by 3 to 4 wk compared with other N sources. No significant differences were observed in N(2)O emissions among the enhanced-efficiency and traditional inorganic N sources| except for ESN in 2009. Cumulative growing season N(2)O emission from poultry litter was significantly greater than from inorganic N sources. The N(2)O loss (2-yr average) as a percentage of N applied ranged from 0.69% for SuperU to 4.5% for poultry litter. The CH(4)-C and CO(2)-C emissions were impacted by environmental factors| such as temperature and moisture| more than the N source. There was no significant difference in corn yield among all N sources in both years. Site specifics and climate conditions may be responsible for the differences among the results of this study and some of the previously published studies. Our results demonstrate that N fertilizer source and climate conditions need consideration when selecting N sources to reduce GHG emissions. 12783,2011,4,4,Atmospheric Responses of Gill-Type and Lindzen-Nigam Models to Global Warming,The equatorial Pacific atmosphere responds differently to global warming in the Gill-type and Lindzen-Nigam models. Under an assumption of no change in the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the Gill-type model| the Walker circulation is intensified in a warmer climate relative to current climatic conditions| while slightly weakened in the Lindzen-Nigam model. Furthermore| for more accurate derivation of the surface wind| the free atmosphere in the Gill-type model is combined with the atmospheric boundary layer. This modified Gill-type model actually produces weaker surface wind than the Gill-type model would| but the sensitivity of the Walker circulation to the warmer climate is similar to that obtained from the Gill-type model. These results may explain why the zonal gradient of equatorial Pacific SST during the twentieth century is observed to strengthen while the Walker circulation is not| even though they are dynamically linked. 11925,2011,3,4,Atomic layer-deposited tunnel oxide stabilizes silicon photoanodes for water oxidation,A leading approach for large-scale electrochemical energy production with minimal global-warming gas emission is to use a renewable source of electricity| such as solar energy| to oxidize water| providing the abundant source of electrons needed in fuel synthesis. We report corrosion-resistant| nanocomposite anodes for the oxidation of water required to produce renewable fuels. Silicon| an earth-abundant element and an efficient photovoltaic material| is protected by atomic layer deposition (ALD) of a highly uniform| 2nm thick layer of titanium dioxide (TiO(2)) and then coated with an optically transmitting layer of a known catalyst (3nm iridium). Photoelectrochemical water oxidation was observed to occur below the reversible potential whereas dark electrochemical water oxidationwas found to have low-to-moderate overpotentials at all pH values| resulting in an inferred photovoltage of similar to 550 mV. Water oxidation is sustained at these anodes for many hours in harsh pH and oxidative environments whereas comparable silicon anodes without the TiO(2) coating quickly fail. The desirable electrochemical efficiency and corrosion resistance of these anodes is made possible by the low electron-tunnelling resistance (< 0.006 Omega cm(2) for p(+) -Si) and uniform thickness of atomic-layer deposited TiO(2). 12818,2011,4,2,Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability,Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge| then| is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is "unequivocal" and 'very likely' caused by human activities| the reverse should now be the case. The task| then| could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate| although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics| this change might be thought of as adding a 'prior'. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover| the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called 'Type II errors' whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 3394,2011,2,4,Australian agriculture: coping with dangerous climate change,Australian agriculture has operated successfully in one of the world's most hostile environments for two centuries. However| climate change is posing serious challenges to its ongoing success. Determining what might constitute dangerous climate change for Australian agriculture is not an easy task| as most climate-related risks are associated with changes in the highly uncertain hydrological cycle rather than directly to more predictable changes in temperature. In addition| the adaptive capacity of Australian producers is generally high| as they have had to cope with a highly variable climate in which periodic| severe droughts are the norm. As the underlying global trends in climate interact with the continent's patterns of natural variability| producers can generally deal with gradual changes in climate but are most concerned about high rates of change in regional and local climates and with abrupt| unexpected shifts in climate patterns. Perhaps the best indicator of dangerous climate change for Australian agriculture is the persistence| or not| of the drying trends in many of the Country's most productive regions and the strength of the linkage between these trends and global climate change. 12520,2011,3,4,Autotrophic nitrogen removal from black water: Calcium addition as a requirement for settleability,Black (toilet) water contains half of the organic load in the domestic wastewater| as well as the major fraction of the nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus. When collected with vacuum toilets| the black water is 25 times more concentrated than the total domestic wastewater stream| i.e. including grey water produced by laundry| showers etc. A two-stage nitritation-anammox process was successfully employed and removed 85%-89% of total nitrogen in anaerobically treated black water. The (free) calcium concentration in black water was too low (42 mg/L) to obtain sufficient granulation of anammox biomass. The granulation and retention of the biomass was improved considerably by the addition of 39 mg/L of extra calcium. This resulted in a volumetric nitrogen removal rate of 0.5 gN/L/d| irrespective of the two temperatures of 35 degrees C and 25 degrees C at which the anammox reactors were operated. Nitrous oxide| a very strong global warming gas| was produced in situations of an incomplete anammox conversion accompanied by elevated levels of nitrite. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12571,2011,2,4,Average conditions of thermal stress in Mexican cities with more than one million inhabitants in the face of climatic change,Human bioclimatic scenarios are presented for Mexican cities with more than a million inhabitants. For this| both urban and global warming were considered| the former having been inferred from demographic data| and the latter from the output of general circulation models. Thus| it was possible to estimate increases in temperature and modifications in hygrometric conditions| which were then used to estimate the human bioclimate for the period of 1981-2000 and the decades of 2030 and 2050| as well as the domestic electrical consumption for air-conditioning in housing resulting there from. 11981,2011,4,4,Balancing the Sea Level Budget,Sea level rise is both a powerful impact of and indicator for global warming and climate change. Observing sea level change| as well as its causes| is therefore a top priority for scientists and society at large. By measuring the ocean's temperature| salinity| mass| and surface height| the relative sources of recent sea level rise can be discerned. With these observations| sea level change is determined in terms of total sea level:and its two major components| ocean mass and steric (density-related) sea level. The sea level budget is closed-when the sum of the independent components agrees with measurements of total sea level| indicating that the observations can be used to interpret the causes of sea level change. While nearly global monitoring of sea level from space-based radar altimeters has been available since the early 1990s| satellite gravity missions capable of weighing changes in ocean mass have been available for less than 10 years. Even more-recently| the Argo array of profiling floats achieved a level of coverage that now allows assessment of global sea level change due to temperature and salinity in the upper 2|000 m of the ocean. Only during the overlapping period of all three observing systems can the sea level budget be directly addressed by observations. 3397,2011,2,4,Barrier Island Population along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts,Barrier islands| the dominant geomorphic features along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts| are a favorite place for living and visiting. Unfortunately| barrier islands are vulnerable to storm-surge flooding and erosion because of low elevations and the movement of sand by waves and tides. In order to estimate the impacts of surge flooding| sea-level rise| and erosion on barrier islands| the lengths and areas of barrier islands and population living there were quantified using high-resolution satellite imagery from Google Earth and 1990-2000 census block data. The total length and area of barrier islands spanning 18 states along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are about 3700 km and 6800 km(2)| respectively. There are approximately 1.4 million people living on barrier islands| half of which are in Florida according to 2000 census data. The population densities of barrier islands are three times those of coastal states on average| and the population increased 14% from 1990 to 2000. The collision course of population increases and development in the face of accelerated sea-level rise due to global climate change makes barrier islands more vulnerable. 3324,2011,4,4,Bayesian Models and Methods in Public Policy and Government Settings,Starting with the neo-Bayesian revival of the 1950s| many statisticians argued that it was inappropriate to use Bayesian methods| and in particular subjective Bayesian methods in governmental and public policy settings because of their reliance upon prior distributions. But the Bayesian framework often provides the primary way to respond to questions raised in these settings and the numbers and diversity of Bayesian applications have grown dramatically in recent years. Through a series of examples| both historical and recent| we argue that Bayesian approaches with formal and informal assessments of priors AND likelihood functions are well accepted and should become the norm in public settings. Our examples include census-taking and small area estimation| US election night forecasting| studies reported to the US Food and Drug Administration| assessing global climate change| and measuring potential declines in disability among the elderly. 12204,2011,2,4,Behavioral thermoregulation in a tropical gastropod: links to climate change scenarios,Tropical species are vulnerable to global warming because they live at| or near to| their upper thermal threshold limits. Therefore| the predicted increase in the frequency of warming events in the tropics is expected to be critical for the survival of local species. This study explored the major environmental variables which were thought to be correlated with body temperatures (BTs) of the tropical snail Littoraria scabra at the niche level. A correlation between BT and substrate temperature (ST) was detected from field observations which suggests a possible causal relationship between both substrate and BTs. In contrast| there was no correlation between BT and air temperature. Field observations suggest that 33.4 degrees C may be L. scabra upper limit of substrate surface temperature| although further experiments are needed to assess if the upper limit of physiological tolerance is actually different. As L. scabra individuals were free to choose their substrata| the observed distribution pattern at the niche level is related to L. scabra's behavior. Additionally| substrate surface temperatures were very heterogeneous at centimeter scale (i.e. from 22.5 to 53.1 degrees C) and L. scabra was shown to select specific STs (i.e. between 22.5 and 33.4 degrees C) rather than microhabitat type. Therefore| L. scabra did not seem to behaviorally thermoregulate through microhabitat selection nor aggregation. In contrast| behavioral experiments showed that L. scabra has the ability to actively select a thermally favorable site over short temporal scale (i.e. individual average speed of 1.26 cm min-1) following exposure to high temperatures above 33.4 degrees C. Hence| this study supports the crucial need to integrate intertidal invertebrate behavioral responses to thermal constraints in climate change studies. 12042,2011,3,4,Behavioural| physical and socio-economic factors in household cooling energy consumption,As global warming continues| the current trend implies that the uptake of air conditioning in the residential sector will go up. thus potentially increasing domestic cooling energy consumption. In this context| this paper investigates the significance of behavioural| physical and socio-economic parameters on cooling energy in order to improve energy efficiency in residential buildings. It demonstrates that such factors exert a significant indirect as well as direct influence on energy use| showing that it is particularly important to understand indirect relationships. An initial study of direct factors affecting cooling energy reveals that occupant behaviour is the most significant issue (related to choices about how often and where air conditioning is used). This is broadly confirmed by path analysis| although climate is seen to be the single most significant parameter| followed by behavioural issues| key physical parameters (e.g. air conditioning type)| and finally socio-economic aspects (e.g. household income). (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11959,2011,3,3,Benchmarking the Environmental Performance of the Jatropha Biodiesel System through a Generic Life Cycle Assessment,In addition to available country or site-specific life cycle studies on Jatropha biodiesel we present a generic| location-independent life cycle assessment and provide a general but in-depth analysis of the environmental performance of Jatropha biodiesel for transportation. Additionally| we assess the influence of changes in byproduct use and production chain. In our assessments| we went beyond the impact on energy requirement and global warming by including impacts on ozone layer and terrestrial acidification and eutrophication. The basic Jatropha biodiesel system consumes eight times less nonrenewable energy than conventional diesel and reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 51%. This result coincides with the lower limit of the range of reduction percentages available in literature for this system and for other liquid biofuels. The impact on the ozone layer is also lower than that provoked by fossil diesel| although eutrophication and acidification increase eight times. This study investigates the general impact trends of the Jatropha system| although not considering land-use change. The results are useful as a benchmark against which other biodiesel systems can be evaluated| to calculate repayment times for land-use change induced carbon loss or as guideline with default values for assessing the environmental performance of specific variants of the system. 11908,2011,2,4,Between the devil and the deep blue sea: Florida's unenviable position with respect to sea level rise,This paper introduces and summarizes a series of articles on the potential impacts of sea level rise on Florida's natural and human communities and what might be done to reduce the severity of those impacts. Most of the papers in this special issue of Climatic Change were developed from presentations at a symposium held at Archbold Biological Station in January 2010| sponsored by the Florida Institute for Conservation Science. Symposium participants agreed that adaptation to sea level rise for the benefit of human communities should be planned in concert with adaptation to reduce vulnerability and impacts to natural communities and native species. The papers in this special issue discuss both of these categories of impacts and adaptation options. In this introductory paper| I place the subject in context by noting that that the literature in conservation biology related to climate change has been concerned largely about increasing temperatures and reduced moisture availability| rather than about sea level rise. The latter| however| is the most immediate and among the most severe impacts of global warming in low-lying regions such as Florida. I then review the content of this special issue by summarizing and interpreting the following 10 papers. I conclude with a review of the recommendations for research and policy that were developed from group discussions at the Archbold symposium. The main lesson that emerges from this volume is that sea level rise| combined with human population growth| urban development in coastal areas| and landscape fragmentation| poses an enormous threat to human and natural well-being in Florida. How Floridians respond to sea level rise will offer lessons| for better or worse| for other low-lying regions worldwide. 12095,2011,2,2,Beyond 2 degrees C: redefining dangerous climate change for physical systems,Most efforts to define a level of dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system are framed in terms of global annual mean surface temperature change| with 2 degrees C above preindustrial being the most widely accepted climate policy 'target'. Yet| no actual large-scale threshold (or 'tipping point') in the climate system (of which there are probably several) has been clearly linked to 2 degrees C global warming. Of those that can be indirectly linked to global temperature change| the dangerous levels are necessarily imprecise and vary| with estimates ranging from similar to 1 degrees C above preindustrial upwards. Some potential thresholds cannot be meaningfully linked to global temperature change| others are sensitive to rates of climate change| and some are most sensitive to spatial gradients of climate change. In some cases| the heterogeneous distributions of reflective (sulfate) aerosols| absorbing (black carbon) aerosols| and land use could be more dangerous than changes in globally well-mixed greenhouse gases. Hence| the framing of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)| in terms of stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations (within a time frame)| is too narrow to prevent some types of DAI. To address this| a reframed policy objective is proposed; to limit the overall magnitude| rate of change| and spatial gradients of anthropogenic radiative forcing| and resultant climate change| through restriction of emissions of anthropogenic aerosols| patterns of land use| and concentrations of short-lived| as well as long-lived| greenhouse gases. (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 451-461 DOI:10.1002/wcc.107 3348,2011,2,4,Beyond the view: Future directions in landscape aesthetics research,The dominant view of landscape research in the latter half of the 20th century saw landscape aesthetics as a discrete area of study| a socio-cultural value detached from other considerations. This view was later challenged by proponents of ecological aesthetics| who countered that what makes landscapes beautiful is often intimately linked to other intrinsic landscape values| such as biodiversity| and that these other values can shift perceptions of how we perceive and appreciate the beauty of landscapes. At the same time| environmental psychologists and others wrestled with questions regarding the extent to which landscape aesthetics had a biological or cultural basis| and examined the impact of individual differences and life experiences. More recently landscape urbanism has reexamined the drivers of urban landscape change| prompting questions of whether landscape aesthetics should be abandoned in favour of landscape pragmatism and instrumentality. Furthermore| new understandings of how we might best sustain biological diversity in the context of global climate change signal an end to the perceived biological status quo and the advent of an aesthetics of necessity. This essay outlines these trends and explores their implications for researching landscape aesthetics. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. 12154,2011,3,4,Biochar as a viable carbon sequestration option: Global and Canadian perspective,Biochar production and mixing in soil are seen as the best options for atmospheric carbon sequestration| providing simultaneous benefits to soil and opportunities for distributed energy generation. The proximity of biomass source and biochar dispersal greatly reduces the energy and emissions footprint of the whole process. The viability of the whole biochar process is examined from two boundary points: is there enough biomass around to have significant impact on the atmospheric CO(2) levels and is there enough soil area for biochar dispersal. The answers are soundly positive| both for the world as a whole and for Canada| for which a more detailed analysis was done. However| the massive adoption of biochar solution is critically dependent on proper recognition of its carbon sequestration impact its soil improvement potentials. To that extent the International Biochar Initiative| together with national chapters| including recently formed Canadian Biochar Initiative| are actively promoting biochar related research and policy framework. This paper addresses the questions of availability of sources and sites that would benefit from its dispersal. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11684,2011,3,3,Biodiesel from oilgae| biofixation of carbon dioxide by microalgae: A solution to pollution problems,Algae containing 30-75% of lipid by dry basis can be called oilgae. All microalgac species produce lipid however some species can contain up to 70% of their dry weight. Microalgae appear to be the only source of renewable biodiesel that is capable of meeting the global demand for transport fuels. Biodiesel production by using oilgac is an alternative process in contrast to other procedures not only being degradable and non-toxic but also as a solution to global warming via reducing emission gases. Algae-based technologies could provide a key tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power plants and other carbon intensive industrial processes. Because algae are rich in oil and can grow in a wide range of conditions| many companies are betting that it can create fuels or other chemicals cheaper than existing feedstocks. The aim of microalgae biofixation of CO(2) is to operate large-scale systems that are able to convert a significant fraction of the CO(2) outputs from a power plant into biofuels. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12160,2011,3,3,Biodiesel Production in a Semiarid Environment: A Life Cycle Assessment Approach,While the use of biodiesel appears to be a promising alternative to petroleum fuel| the replacement of fossil fuel by biofuel may not bring about the intended climate cooling because of the increased soil N(2)O emissions due to N-fertilizer applications. Using a life cycle assessment approach| we assessed the influence of soil nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions on the life cycle global warming potential of the production and combustion of biodiesel from canola oil produced in a semiarid climate. Utilizing locally measured soil N(2)O emissions| rather than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default values| decreased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the production and combustion of 1 GJ biodiesel from 63 to 37 carbon dioxide equivalents (CO(2)-e)/GJ. GHG were 1.1 to 2.1 times lower than those from petroleum or petroleum-based diesel depending on which soil N(2)O emission factors were included in the analysis. The advantages of utilizing biodiesel rapidly declined when blended with petroleum diesel. Mitigation strategies that decrease emissions from the production and application of N fertilizers may further decrease the life cycle GHG emissions in the production and combustion of biodiesel. 12304,2011,2,4,Biodiversity measures applied to stand-level management: Can they really be useful?,Global warming is creating the need to incorporate a considerable amount of knowledge on diversity and functionality into management plans| but this is not always an easy task. We have developed an approach that includes the analysis of biodiversity measures and their relation with physiographic or soil parameters| for use in forestry management plans in Hoyocasero (central Spain). Considering the richness in forest plants and according to their morphological and functional traits| we grouped the species present under the canopy into four groups. Then we have calculated their richness and biodiversity indices and for the set of plants as a whole. The species groups showed differences in richness and diversity indices for the two forest types in the study| while the set of plants as a whole was not sensitive enough to detect variations in the quality of the floristic species. The use of diversity indices applied to particular species groups proved to be a useful method of defining levels of forest quality. This methodology has enabled us to establish that the pinewood is in a better state of conservation than the oakwood. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12833,2011,3,4,Bioethanol fuel production from rambutan fruit biomass as reducing agent of global warming and greenhouse gases,The depletion of fossil fuels impacts on the increase of petroleum price and has triggered the finding of alternative and renewable energy. Biofuel has attracted the attention of researchers all over the world due to reducing the environmental impacts of elevated carbon monoxide. Abundant of fruits waste can be reused in the bioethanol production. Hence| it can reduce pollution and waste material| thus| helps in waste disposal management and reducing global warming. The aim of the study of producing bioethanol from rotten rambutan was to manage rambutan wastes| cleaning the environment and reduction of greenhouse gases and global warming. This study was conducted from rambutan fruit waste biomass in different parameters using yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) fermentation. The optimum condition of bioethanol yield was having 3 g of yeast at 30 degrees C by following pH 6 for two days of incubation. Glucose content| total soluble solid (TSS) and pH values reduced after fermentation due to the conversion of glucose to ethanol and carbon dioxide in case of all parameters. The chemical content| viscosity and acid values of the bioethanol produced were within ASTM (American Society for Testing and Materials) standard specifications with less hazardous chemical content in produced bioethanol. Furthermore| the engine test result showed that greenhouse gas emission like hydrocarbon (HC)| NOx and SO(2) content in E5 and E10 were significantly lower in bioethanol than in 100% gasoline tested in (proton Gen 2 multicylinder) car. Thus| it can potentially be used as good biofuel for petrol engine purposes. 11820,2011,3,3,Biofuels carbon footprints: Whole-systems optimisation for GHG emissions reduction,A modelling approach for strategic design of ethanol production systems combining lifecycle analysis (LCA) and supply chain optimisation (SCO) can significantly contribute to assess their economic and environmental sustainability and to guide decision makers towards a more conscious implementation of ad hoc farming and processing practices. Most models applications so far have been descriptive in nature; the model proposed in this work is "normative" in that it aims to guide actions towards optimal outcomes (e.g. optimising the nitrogen balance through the whole supply chain). The modelling framework was conceived to steer strategic policies through a geographically specific design process considering economic and environmental criteria. Results shows how a crop management strategy devised from a whole systems perspective can significantly contribute to mitigate global warming even in first generation technologies. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12118,2011,2,4,Biogenic habitat structure of seaweeds change along a latitudinal gradient in ocean temperature,Global warming is affecting all major ecosystems| including temperate reefs where canopy-forming seaweeds provide biogenic habitat. In contrast to the rapidly growing recognition of how climate affects the performance and distribution of individuals and populations| relatively little is known about possible links between climate and biogenic habitat structure. We examined the relationship between several ocean temperature characteristics| expressed on time-scales of days| months and years| and habitat patch characteristics on 24 subtidal temperate reefs along a latitudinal gradient (Western Australia; similar to 34 to 27 degrees S). Significant temperature-related variation in habitat structure was observed| even though the total landscape cover of kelp and fucalean canopies did not change across the climate gradient: monospecific patches of kelp became increasingly dominant in warmer climates| at the expense of mixed kelp-fucalean canopies. The decline in mixed canopies was associated with an increase in the abundance of Sargassum spp.| replacing a more diverse canopy of Scytothalia doryocarpa and several other large fucoids. There were no observed differences in the proportion of open gaps or gap characteristics. These habitat changes were most closely related to patterns in minimum temperatures and hot temperature thresholds (days >20 degrees C)| presumably because temperate algae require cool periods for successful reproduction and recruitment (even if the adults can survive warmer temperatures). Although the observed habitat variation may appear subtle| similar structural differences have been linked to a range of effects on canopy-associated organisms through the provision of habitat and ecosystem engineering. Consequently| our study suggests that the magnitude of projected warming might cause changes in habitat structure and thereby indirectly affect numerous habitat-dependent plants and animals. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11838,2011,3,4,Biogeochemical controls on methane| nitrous oxide| and carbon dioxide fluxes from deciduous forest soils in eastern Canada,The exchange of the important trace gases| methane (CH(4))| nitrous oxide (N(2)O)| and carbon dioxide (CO(2))| between forested soils and the atmosphere can show great temporal and spatial variability. We measured the flux of these three gases over 2 years along catenas at two forested sites| to determine the important controls. Well-drained soils consumed atmospheric CH(4)| while poorly drained swamp soils embedded in depressions were a source. CH(4) fluxes could be predicted primarily by temperature and moisture| and tree cover exerted an influence mainly through the creation of large soil porosity| leading to increased consumption rates. In contrast| there were very poor relationships between N(2)O fluxes and environmental variables| reflecting the complex interactions of microbial| edaphic| and N cycling processes| such as nitrification in well-drained soils and denitrification in poorly drained soils| which led to N(2)O production (or consumption) in soils and hence larger variability. At the broad temporal and spatial scale| soil C: N ratio was a good predictor of N(2)O emission rates| through its influence upon N cycling processes. Soil CO(2) emission rates showed less spatial and temporal variability| and were controlled by temperature and moisture. The source strength| in global warming potential of CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes in CO(2) equivalents| was reduced markedly when trace gas fluxes from 5 to 15% poorly drained soils were included in the net global warming potential calculation of whole forested watersheds. Soils drainage class integrates many of the biogeochemical processes controlling the flux of these gases providing a framework for extrapolating results. 12570,2011,5,4,Biogeography and Speciation Patterns of the Golden Orb Spider Genus Nephila (Araneae: Nephilidae) in Asia,The molecular phylogeny of the globally distributed golden orb spider genus Nephila (Nephilidae) was reconstructed to infer its speciation history| with a focus on SE Asian/W Pacific species. Five Asian| two Australian| four African| and one American species were included in the phylogenetic analyses. Other species in Nephilidae| Araneidae| and Tetragnathidae were included to assess their relationships with the genus Nephila| and one species from Uloboridae was used as the outgroup. Phylogenetic trees were reconstructed from one nuclear (18S) and two mitochondrial (COI and 16S) markers. Our molecular phylogeny shows that the widely distributed Asian/Australian species| N. pilipes| and an African species| N. constricta| form a clade that is sister to all other Nephila species. Nested in this Nephila clade are one clade with tropical and subtropical/temperate Asian/Australian species| and the other containing African and American species. The estimated divergence times suggest that diversification events within Nephila occurred during mid-Miocene to Pliocene (16 Mya-2 Mya)| and these time periods were characterized by cyclic global warming/cooling events. According to Dispersal and Vicariance Analysis (DIVA)| the ancestral range of the Asian/Australian clade was tropical Asia| and the ancestral range of the genus Nephila was either tropical Asia or Africa. We conclude that the speciation of the Asian/Australian Nephila species was driven by Neogene global cyclic climate changes. However| further population level studies comparing diversification patterns of sister species are needed to determine the mode of speciation of these species. 12052,2011,2,4,Biomarkers in Natural Fish Populations Indicate Adverse Biological Effects of Offshore Oil Production,Background: Despite the growing awareness of the necessity of a sustainable development| the global economy continues to depend largely on the consumption of non-renewable energy resources. One such energy resource is fossil oil extracted from the seabed at offshore oil platforms. This type of oil production causes continuous environmental pollution from drilling waste| discharge of large amounts of produced water| and accidental spills. Methods and principal findings: Samples from natural populations of haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in two North Sea areas with extensive oil production were investigated. Exposure to and uptake of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were demonstrated| and biomarker analyses revealed adverse biological effects| including induction of biotransformation enzymes| oxidative stress| altered fatty acid composition| and genotoxicity. Genotoxicity was reflected by a hepatic DNA adduct pattern typical for exposure to a mixture of PAHs. Control material was collected from a North Sea area without oil production and from remote Icelandic waters. The difference between the two control areas indicates significant background pollution in the North Sea. Conclusion: It is most remarkable to obtain biomarker responses in natural fish populations in the open sea that are similar to the biomarker responses in fish from highly polluted areas close to a point source. Risk assessment of various threats to the marine fish populations in the North Sea| such as overfishing| global warming| and eutrophication| should also take into account the ecologically relevant impact of offshore oil production. 12155,2011,3,4,Biomass from agriculture in small-scale combined heat and power plants - A comparative life cycle assessment,Biomass produced on farm land is a renewable fuel that can prove suitable for small-scale combined heat and power (CHP) plants in rural areas. However| it can still be questioned if biomass-based energy generation is a good environmental choice with regards to the impact on greenhouse gas emissions| and if there are negative consequences of using of agricultural land for other purposes than food production. In this study| a simplified life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted over four scenarios for supply of the entire demand of power and heat of a rural village. Three of the scenarios are based on utilization of biomass in 100 kW (e) combined heat and power (CHP) systems and the fourth is based on fossil fuel in a large-scale plant. The biomass systems analyzed were based on 1) biogas production with ley as substrate and the biogas combusted in a microturbine| 2) gasification of willow chips and the product gas combusted in an IC-engine and 3) combustion of willow chips for a Stirling engine. The two first scenarios also require a straw boiler. The results show that the biomass-based scenarios reduce greenhouse gas emissions considerably compared to the scenario based on fossil fuel| but have higher acidifying emissions. Scenario 1 has by far the best performance with respect to global warming potential and the advantage of utilizing a byproduct and thus not occupying extra land. Scenario 2 and 3 require less primary energy and less fossil energy input than 1| but set-aside land for willow production must be available. The low electric efficiency of scenario 3 makes it an unsuitable option. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12542,2011,3,3,Biomass fuel use| burning technique and reasons for the denial of improved cooking stoves by Forest User Groups of Rema-Kalenga Wildlife Sanctuary| Bangladesh,Use of biomass fuel in traditional cooking stoves (TCS) is a long-established practice that has incomplete combustion and generates substances with global warming potential (GWP). Improved cooking stoves (ICS) have been developed worldwide as an alternative household fuel burning device| as well as a climate change mitigation. A study was conducted among female Forest User Groups (FUGs) of Rema-Kalenga Wildlife Sanctuary| Bangladesh| to assess the status of ICS disseminated by the Forest Department (FD) under the Nishorgo (2009) Support Project| along with the community's biomass fuel consumption pattern. Wood consumption was highest (345kg month-1 household-1) followed by agricultural residues (60kg month-1 household-1)| tree leaves (51kg month-1 household-1) and cow dung (25kg month-1 household-1). Neighbouring forests of the sanctuary was the core source for wood fuel| with little or no reduction in the extraction even after joining the FUG. Twenty-two species| both indigenous and introduced| were preferred as wood fuel. None of the respondents were found willing to use ICS although 43% owned one; either as a status symbol or to meet the conditions of the FD for membership in FUG. Seven negative features of the disseminated ICS were identified by households| which made them unwilling to use them further. Manufacturing faults may be responsible for some ICS demerits| while the FD failed to convince the community of the benefits. A proper examination of the disseminated ICS efficacy is crucial| with active involvement of community members. The Sustainable Energy Triangle Strategy (SETS) could be implemented for this purpose. Findings of the study are of immense importance in designing a strategy for the introduction of ICS into Bangladesh. 12665,2011,3,3,Bioplastics and Petroleum-based Plastics: Strengths and Weaknesses,The application of biomass| such as starch| cellulose| wood| and sugar| used to substitute fossil resources for the production of plastics| is a widely accepted strategy towards sustainable development. In fact| this way a significant reduction of non renewable energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission is accomplished. In recent years| several typologies of bioplastics were introduced and the most important are those based on cellulosic esters| starch derivatives| polyhydroxybutyrate| polylactic acid| and polycaprolactone. Nowadays| the most important tool to evaluate the environmental impact of a (bio) plastic is the life cycle assessment that determines the overall impact of a plastic on the environment by defining and analyzing several impact categories index like the global warming; the human toxicity; the abiotic depletion; the eutrophication; the acidification; and many others directly related to the production| utilization| and disposal of the considered plastics. The aim of this work is to present a comparison between bioplastics and conventional plastics through the use of the "Life Cycle Assessment" methodology. In particular| the life cycle assessment's Cradle to Grave of shoppers made from Mater-Bi (starch-based plastic) an polyethylene were reported and compared as a case study in order to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the bioplastics and the conventional plastics. 12674,2011,3,3,Biorefining| a promising alternative to petrochemistry,Biorefining| a promising alternative to petrochemistry. Because of the price increase of fossil resources| of their uncertain availability and because of environmental concerns| alternative solutions able to mitigate global warming| and reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and carbon dioxide emissions should be promoted. The replacement of petroleum with biomass as raw material for bioenergy (biofuels| power and heat) and chemical production is an interesting option and is the driving force for the development of biorefinery complexes that will have a critical role to play in our common future. A biorefinery is a facility that integrates biomass conversion processes and equipment to produce fuels| power| heat and chemicals from biomass. In biorefinery| almost all types of biomass feedstocks can be converted to different classes of biofuels and biochemicals through various processes that maximize economic and environmental benefits| while minimizing waste and pollution. Through the integration of green chemistry into biorefineries| and the use of low environmental impact technologies| future sustainable production chains of biofuels and high value chemicals from biomass can therefore be established. Currently| the green biorefinery| the whole-crop biorefinery| the oilseed biorefinery and the lignocellulosic feedstock biorefinery are favoured in research| development and industrial implementation| essentially through fully integrated biorefinery complexes. 3233,2011,2,4,Bird migration on Helgoland: the yield from 100 years of research,The island of Helgoland (or Heligoland; in the North Sea) was the very first place on Earth to be the focus of systematic studies on bird migration (since the mid-nineteenth century). The "Vogelwarte Helgoland" was founded in 1910| and since 1909 more than 800|000 birds have been ringed. Most of these are nocturnally migrating songbirds that cross the German Bight in a broad front on their way to or from their Scandinavian breeding grounds. In good weather conditions (tail winds| clear sky)| the majority of the migrants does not land on Helgoland| but deteriorating weather strongly increases their attraction to this island. Wind can cause rare birds such as raptors and continental landbirds to be blown offshore or pelagic seabirds to be blown into the German Bight| where they can drift to Helgoland. Migrants stay for hours to weeks| depending on species| age| sex| body condition| season| weather| food availability| intra- and interspecific competition| and predation pressure. The direction of departure also appears to be influenced by body and weather conditions. The reported circumstances for the almost 7|000 recoveries have changed substantially over the last 100 years| and show definite regional differences. Indices from constant-effort trapping reveal decreased numbers of long-distance migrants| while numbers of short/medium-distance migrants have not changed much. In all "true migrants|" the mean spring passage time has become earlier since 1960 (by up to 18 days). Whereas changes in autumn are less uniform| the time between both periods has increased in most species. This earliness in spring is best explained by local temperatures in short/medium-distance migrants| and by the winter NAO index in long-distance migrants. 3188,2011,2,4,Birth seasonality and offspring production in threatened neotropical primates related to climate,Given the threatened status of many primate species| the impacts of global warming on primate reproduction and| consequently| population growth should be of concern. We examined relations between climatic variability and birth seasonality| offspring production| and infant sex ratios in two ateline primates| northern muriquis| and woolly monkeys. In both species| the annual birth season was delayed by dry conditions and El Nino years| and delayed birth seasons were linked to lower birth rates. Additionally| increased mean annual temperatures were associated with lower birth rates for northern muriquis. Offspring sex ratios varied with climatic conditions in both species| but in different ways: directly in woolly monkeys and indirectly in northern muriquis. Woolly monkeys displayed an increase in the proportion of males among offspring in association with El Nino events| whereas in northern muriquis| increases in the proportion of males among offspring were associated with delayed onset of the birth season| which itself was related| although weakly| to warm| dry conditions. These results illustrate that global warming| increased drought frequency| and changes in the frequency of El Nino events could limit primate reproductive output| threatening the persistence and recovery of ateline primate populations. 3163,2011,2,4,Bluetongue: History| global epidemiology| and pathogenesis,Bluetongue is an arthropod-transmitted viral disease of ruminants and certain other animals that was recognized and described more than 100 years ago in southern Africa. Bluetongue virus (BTV) infection of ruminants and vector Culicoides insects is enzootic throughout tropical and temperate regions of the world; however| there have been drastic recent regional alterations in the global distribution of BTV infection| particularly in Europe since 1998. Multiple novel BTV serotypes also have been detected since 1998 in the south-eastern United States| apparently encroaching from the adjacent Caribbean ecosystem| and novel serotypes of BTV have been identified recently in other historically enzootic regions of the world| including the Middle East and Australia. It has been proposed| but certainly not proven| that global climate change is responsible for these events. BTV infection of ruminants is often subclinical| but outbreaks of severe disease occur with regular frequency especially at the upper and lower limits of the virus' global range where infection is highly seasonal - occurring in the late summer and autumn. Bluetongue disease results from vascular injury| likely through a process analogous to that of human hemorrhagic viral fevers in which production of vasoactive mediators from virus-infected macrophages and dendritic cells results in enhanced endothelial paracellular permeability with subsequent vascular leakage and hypovolemic shock. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12623,2011,3,4,Boiling heat transfer of HFO-1234yf flowing in a smooth small-diameter horizontal tube,The flow boiling heat transfer coefficient of the low-GWP (global warming potential) refrigerant HFO-1234yf inside a smooth small-diameter horizontal tube (inner diameter: 2 mm) was experimentally investigated. The local heat transfer coefficient was measured at heat fluxes of 6-24 kW m(-2)| mass fluxes of 100-400 kg m(-2) s(-1)| an evaporating temperature of 288.15 K| and an inlet vapor quality of 0-0.25. The results show that the effect of heat flux on the heat transfer was large at low vapor quality| while the effect of mass flux was large at high vapor quality. The heat transfer coefficient of HFO-1234yf was almost the same as that of R-134a. The heat transfer coefficients calculated based on correlations with Saitoh et al. agreed well with the measured values compared to other correlations. The measured pressure drop agreed well with that predicted by the Lockhart-Martinelli correlation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved. 11997,2011,3,2,Borate-Catalyzed Carbon Dioxide Hydration via the Carbonic Anhydrase Mechanism,The hydration of CO(2) plays a critical role in carbon capture and geoengineering technologies currently under development to mitigate anthropogenic global warming and in environmental processes such as ocean acidification. Here we reveal that borate catalyzes the conversion of CO(2) to HCO(3)(-) via the same fundamental mechanism as the enzyme carbonic anhydrase| which is responsible for CO(2) hydration in the human body. In this mechanism the tetrahydroxyborate ion| B(OH)(4)(-)| is the active form of boron that undergoes direct reaction with CO(2). In addition to being able to accelerate CO(2) hydration in alkaline solvents used for carbon capture| we hypothesize that this mechanism controls CO(2) uptake by certain saline bodies of water| such as Mono Lake (California)| where previously inexplicable influx rates of inorganic carbon have created unique chemistry. The new understanding of CO(2) hydration provided here should lead to improved models for the carbon cycle in highly saline bodies of water and to advances in carbon capture and geoengineering technology. 12181,2011,2,4,Brackish meltponds on Arctic sea ice-a new habitat for marine metazoans,Meltponds on Arctic sea ice have previously been reported to be devoid of marine metazoans due to fresh-water conditions. The predominantly dark frequently also green and brownish meltponds observed in the Central Arctic in summer 2007 hinted to brackish conditions and considerable amounts of algae| possibly making the habitat suitable for marine metazoans. Environmental conditions in meltponds as well as sympagic meiofauna in new ice covering pond surfaces and in rotten ice on the bottom of ponds were studied| applying modified techniques from sea-ice and under-ice research. Due to the very porous structure of the rotten ice| the meltponds were usually brackish to saline| providing living conditions very similar to sub-ice water. The new ice cover on the surface had similar characteristics as the bottom layer of level ice. The ponds were thus accessible to and inhabitable by metazoans. The new ice cover and the rotten ice were inhabited by various sympagic meiofauna taxa| predominantly ciliates| rotifers| acoels| nematodes and foraminiferans. Also| sympagic amphipods were found on the bottom of meltponds. We suggest that| in consequence of global warming| brackish and saline meltponds are becoming more frequent in the Arctic| providing a new habitat to marine metazoans. 11912,2011,3,3,Brick and mortar treatment by cream emulsion for improved water repellence and thermal insulation,A novel polymer cream was applied to brick and mortar in an attempt to reduce water absorption and to improve thermal insulation for household heating energy saving. Tests were carried out on surface energy| water contact angle| thermal conductivity and sorptivity of brick and mortar with and without cream treatment. A model house was built and a heating and monitoring system was developed to quantitatively evaluate the heating energy consumption in different conditions before and after cream treatment. It was found out that cream treatment can successfully impart good water repellence and enhanced the thermal insulation of the brick and mortar. The results from contact angle and surface energy measurements showed that the materials became highly hydrophobic. Experimental results from the model house showed approximately 9% heating energy consumption reduction in dry conditions and approximately 50% in wet conditions. In addition| the internal humidity typically was reduced to almost 1/3 of that of the control. It has been demonstrated that the novel cream treatment on masonry buildings can help reduce damp problems and save household heating energy consumption which can make a significant contribution to addressing social| environmental| ecological and economic problems resulting from climate change and global warming. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12044,2011,4,4,Broader perspectives for comparing different greenhouse gases,Over the last 20 years| different greenhouse gases have been compared| in the context of climate change| primarily through the concept of global warming potentials (GWPs). This considers the climate forcing caused by pulse emissions and integrated over a fixed time horizon. Recent studies have shown that uncertainties in GWP values are significantly larger than previously thought and| while past literature in this area has raised alternative means of comparison| there is not yet any clear alternative. We propose that a broader framework for comparing greenhouse gases has become necessary and that this cannot be addressed by using simple fixed exchange rates. From a policy perspective| the framework needs to be clearly aligned with the goal of climate stabilization| and we show that comparisons between gases can be better addressed in this context by the forcing equivalence index (FEI). From a science perspective| a framework for comparing greenhouse gases should also consider the full range of processes that affect atmospheric composition and how these may alter for climate stabilization at different levels. We cover a basis for a broader approach to comparing greenhouse gases by summarizing the uncertainties in GWPs| linking those to uncertainties in the FEIs consistent with stabilization| and then to a framework for addressing uncertainties in the corresponding biogeochemical processes. 12396,2011,4,4,Bubbles emerging from a submerged granular bed,This paper explores the phenomena associated with the emergence of gas bubbles from a submerged granular bed. While there are many natural and industrial applications| we focus on the particular circumstances and consequences associated with the emergence of methane bubbles from the beds of lakes and reservoirs since there are significant implications for the dynamics of lakes and reservoirs and for global warming. This paper describes an experimental study of the processes of bubble emergence from a granular bed. Two distinct emergence modes are identified| mode 1 being simply the percolation of small bubbles through the interstices of the bed| while mode 2 involves the cumulative growth of a larger bubble until its buoyancy overcomes the surface tension effects. We demonstrate the conditions dividing the two modes (primarily the grain size) and show that this accords with simple analytical evaluations. These observations are consistent with previous studies of the dynamics of bubbles within porous beds. The two emergence modes also induce quite different particle fluidization levels. The latter are measured and correlated with a diffusion model similar to that originally employed in river sedimentation models by Vanoni and others. Both the particle diffusivity and the particle flux at the surface of the granular bed are measured and compared with a simple analytical model. These mixing processes can be consider applicable not only to the grains themselves| but also to the nutrients and/or contaminants within the bed. In this respect they are shown to be much more powerful than other mixing processes (such as the turbulence in the benthic boundary layer) and could| therefore| play a dominant role in the dynamics of lakes and reservoirs. 12576,2011,2,4,Bud set in poplar - genetic dissection of a complex trait in natural and hybrid populations,P>The seasonal timing of growth events is crucial to tree distribution and conservation. The seasonal growth cycle is strongly adapted to the local climate that is changing because of global warming. We studied bud set as one cornerstone of the seasonal growth cycle in an integrative approach. Bud set was dissected at the phenotypic level into several components| and phenotypic components with most genetic variation were identified. While phenotypic variation resided in the timing of growth cessation| and even so more in the duration from growth cessation to bud set| the timing of growth cessation had a stronger genetic component in both natural and hybrid populations. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) were identified for the most discriminative phenotypic bud-set components across four poplar pedigrees. The QTL from different pedigrees were recurrently detected in six regions of the poplar genome. These regions of 1.83-4.25 Mbp in size| containing between 202 and 394 genes| form the basis for further molecular-genetic dissection of bud set. 12134,2011,4,3,Bulk density of Harran plain soils in relation to other soil properties,Global warming is one of the most important problems of the present day. The increase of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and other greenhouse gases causes a great problem in the atmosphere. However| CO(2) gas constituted the biggest threat at present| though the other gases increase| too. One of the primary precautions to take for this is the context of soil earth atmospheric CO(2) through plants. Beside the context of soil carbon| some other factors are also affecting this context. Some of them are texture| bulk density (BD)| cation exchange capacity (CEC)| exchangeable cations (EC)| soil reaction (pH) and electrical conductivity (Ec). In Harran plain| an organic carbon amount ranged from 0.28 to 4.95 kg C m(-2). The statistic analyses data in the factors are: BD| organic carbon (OC)| texture (clay| silt and sand%)| CEC| EC| pH and Ec. The strongest correlation was found as BD and OC (R(2) = 99.96)| but when compared with the other factors| it was detected as R(2) = 99.4. The reason for its height when we consider all the parameters is the involvement of organic carbon in the calculation. When we deal with them individually| the correlation falls below 50%. In this study| a point of high correlation is made between OC and BD. The study aims to determine| in the soils| BD| which is costly| hard and time consuming| and OC which is known by means of this correlation. In the comparison analysis of the entire data and the determination of the equations| student t test was used and the data were investigated at p<0.01 significance levels. However| ANOVA techniques were used regularly in this comparison. 11773,2011,2,4,C(4) grasses prosper as carbon dioxide eliminates desiccation in warmed semi-arid grassland,Global warming is predicted to induce desiccation in many world regions through increases in evaporative demand(1-3). Rising CO(2) may counter that trend by improving plant water-use efficiency(4|5). However| it is not clear how important this CO(2)-enhanced water use efficiency might be in offsetting warming-induced desiccation because higher CO(2) also leads to higher plant biomass| and therefore greater transpirational surface(2|6|7). Furthermore| although warming is predicted to favour warm-season| C(4) grasses| rising CO(2) should favour C(3)| or cool-season plants(8). Here we show in a semi-arid grassland that elevated CO(2) can completely reverse the desiccating effects of moderate warming. Although enrichment of air to 600 p. p. m. v. CO(2) increased soil water content (SWC)| 1.5/3.0 degrees C day/night warming resulted in desiccation| such that combined CO(2) enrichment and warming had no effect on SWC relative to control plots. As predicted| elevated CO(2) favoured C(3) grasses and enhanced stand productivity| whereas warming favoured C(4) grasses. Combined warming and CO(2) enrichment stimulated above-ground growth of C(4) grasses in 2 of 3 years when soil moisture most limited plant productivity. The results indicate that in a warmer| CO(2)-enriched world| both SWC and productivity in semi-arid grasslands may be higher than previously expected. 11740,2011,5,4,Calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphic study of forearc basin sediments: Lower to Upper Cretaceous Budden Canyon Formation (Great Valley Group)| northern California| USA,The results of a calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphic investigation of the North Fork Cottonwood Creek section of the Budden Canyon Formation (BCF; Hauterivian-Turonian) in northern California are summarized using the Boreal - cosmopolitan Boreal Nannofossil Biostratigraphy (BC) - Upper Cretaceous Nannofossil Biostratigraphy (UC) nannofossil zonal schemes of Bown et al. and Burnett et al. Sixteen intervals| ranging from the BC15 to UC8 zones| were established in the section. Combined biostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic studies suggest a Hauterivian to mid-Turonian age for the studied sequence. The Hauterivian-Barremian| Barremian-Aptian| Aptian-Albian| Albian-Cenomanian| and Cenomanian-Turonian stage boundaries were delineated near the top of the Ogo Member| below the Huling Sandstone Member| within the upper Chickabally Member| in the upper portion of the Bald Hills Member and within the Gas Point Member| respectively. Unconformities probably exist at the base of the Huling Sandstone Member and the upper part of the upper Chickabally Member. The nannofossil assemblage in the North Fork Cottonwood Creek suggests that the study area was under the influence of cold-water conditions during the Barremian to Lower Aptian interval| shifting to tropical/warm-water conditions during the Albian to Turonian interval as a result of the mid-Cretaceous global warming. Although oceanic anoxic events have not yet been reported in the BCF| preliminary total organic carbon| along with nannofossil data| suggest the presence of the global Cenomanian-Turonian boundary oceanic anoxic event 2. 12759,2011,4,3,Calculation of joint PDFs for climate change with properties matching recent Australian projections,The 2007 report Climate Change in Australia presented single-variable probability density functions for climatological change driven by global warming. However| their use is limited to climate impact applications involving one variable or if uncertainty in pairs of variables can be assumed to be independent. As is shown here| local changes in mean rainfall and temperature from 23 individual climate models are often strongly anticorrelated| particularly for summer and annual cases in inland Australia. Relatively large warming tends to coincide with declines in rainfall. A simple iterative approach is developed that produces a joint density function for the pair that includes this anticorrelation and has marginal distributions matching the single-variable ones. An extension of the approach to three variables was also successful. These joint functions can be used in applications where two or more related variables are important. The approach is illustrated using results for Dubbo| New South Wales| in 2070 under the A1B forcing scenario. A brief comparison of the method to an alternative of using a Gaussian copula is made. 12427,2011,2,4,CAN ENVIRONMENTAL VARIATION AFFECT SEEDLING SURVIVAL OF PLANTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO?,The effects of global warming increase the frequency and intensity of many climate events such as rainfall. We evaluated the effects of environmental conditions on early stage seedling survival of the native thorn scrub species Caesalpinia mexicana A. Gray| Celtis pallida Torr.| Cordia boissieri A. DC.| and Ebenopsis ebano (Berland.) Barneby and J.W. Grimes| during the summer of 2009 and 2010. The experimental design had two factors| two levels of rainfall and three microhabitats of thorn scrub: (i) open interspace| (ii) thorn scrub edge and (iii) under the canopy of dense thorn scrub. In dense thorn scrub| seedling survival was higher for Caesalpinia mexicana and Celtis pallida| and for Cordia boissieri and Ebenopsis ebano seedling survival was higher in dense thorn scrub and thorn scrub edge. The effect of rainfall on seedling survival depended on the year. Rainfall in 2010 and dense thorn scrub increased seedling survival of native species. For survival| the limiting factors of microhabitats appear to change across the years. Besides rainfall events| biological aspects like competition and mycorrhiza effects would need to be considered in models of plant establishment. 12220,2011,5,2,Can humans force a return to a 'Cretaceous' climate?,The modern pole-to-equator sea-level temperature difference is about 50 degrees C; that of the mid-Cretaceous ranged from 30 degrees C to as little as 24 degrees C| implying a much more equable climate. This may have been caused by 1) reduction of the ice-forced albedo of the polar regions| 2) more efficient meridional energy transport by the atmosphere and ocean| and 3) increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Earth's icy polar regions stabilize its present 'inequable' climate through the ice-albedo feedback effect The polar ice results in permanent atmospheric highs that stabilize Earth's wind systems. In turn the stable winds drive the ocean currents and determine the location of the frontal systems that separate the low- and high-latitude oceanic gyre systems and bound the region where water sinks into the ocean interior as thermocline and intermediate water masses. Increased ocean heat transport can assist in making a more equable climate| but unrealistic volume transports would be required to warm the polar regions to Cretaceous levels. The major factor forcing the equable climate of the Cretaceous is now thought to be increased greenhouse gas concentrations| dominated by CO(2). The modern rate of change in atmospheric concentration is greater than 200 ppmv per century and increasing. This compares with 1 ppmv per century during the last deglaciation. At current rates of fossil fuel burning| atmospheric CO(2) levels will reach Cretaceous levels of 2 times the pre-industrial level about 2070 and 8 times the pre-industrial level shortly after 2300. It is likely that Cretaceous atmospheric CO(2) concentrations will last for many thousands to tens of thousands of years. In addition to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations| a return to climatic conditions resembling those of the Cretaceous would require ice-free poles and large changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Arctic sea-ice is melting much more rapidly than had been expected| and the Arctic Ocean will soon be free of sea-ice in summer. The Greenland ice sheet is melting more rapidly than expected because of greenhouse warming. Surface meltwater forms lakes| and then flows down through crevasses and holes in the ice to lubricate the base| allowing ice steams to flow much more rapidly. The lifetime of the Greenland ice sheet may be only a few hundred years. The West Antarctic ice sheet is inherently unstable| being grounded on rock well below sea level. The ice shelves blocking ice streams off West Antarctica have begun to melt from beneath and break up as the southern ocean warms. The East Antarctic ice sheet has been regarded as highly stable but discovery of lakes beneath the ice and fast-flowing ice streams raises questions about whether the ice sheet will ultimately succumb to global warming and disintegrate. I conclude that a return to climatic conditions resembling those of the mid-Cretaceous is not only possible but also likely unless humanity can organize an effective campaign to stop CO(2) emissions to the atmosphere and remove some of the excess CO(2) already introduced. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12530,2011,2,4,Can increases in temperature stimulate blooms of the toxic benthic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis ovata?,Ostreopsis ovata Fukuyo is an epiphytic| toxic dinoflagellate| inhabiting tropical and sub-tropical waters worldwide and also in certain temperate waters such as the Mediterranean Sea. Toxic blooms of O. ovata have been reported in SE Brazil in 1998/99 and 2001/02 and the French-Italian Riviera in 2005 and 2006. These blooms had negative effects on human health and aquatic life. Chemical analyses have indicated that O. ovate cells produce palytoxin| a very strong toxin| only second in toxicity to botulism. Increase in water temperature by several degrees has been suggested as the reason for triggering these blooms. Four laboratory experiments were performed with O. ovata isolated from Tyrrhenian Sea| Italy to determine the effects of water temperature and co-occurring algae on the cell growth and/or the toxicity of O. ovata. The cells were grown under different temperatures ranging from 16 degrees C to 30 degrees C| and cell densities| growth rates and the cell toxicities were studied. Results indicated high water temperatures (26-30 degrees C) increased the growth rate and biomass accumulation of O. ovata. In mixed cultures of O. ovata with other co-occurring algae| biomass decreased due to grazing by ciliates. Cell toxicity on the other hand was highest at lower temperatures| i.e.| between 20 and 22 degrees C. The present study suggests that sea surface temperature increases resulted by global warming could play a crucial role inducing the geographical expansion and biomass accumulation by blooms of O. ovata. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11890,2011,2,4,Can the Increase in the Eddy Length Scale under Global Warming Cause the Poleward Shift of the Jet Streams?,The question of whether an increase in the atmospheric eddy length scale may cause a poleward shift of the midlatitude jet streams is addressed. An increase in the length scale of the eddy reduces its zonal phase speed and so causes eddies to dissipate farther from the jet core. If the eddy dissipation region on the poleward flank of the jet overlaps with the eddy source latitudes| shifting this dissipation to higher latitudes will alter which latitudes are a net source of baroclinic eddies| and hence the eddy-driven jet stream may shift poleward. This behavior does not affect the equatorward flank of the jet in the same way because the dissipation region on the equatorward flank is well separated from the source latitudes. An experiment with a barotropic model is presented in which an increase in the length scale of a midlatitude perturbation results in a poleward shift in the acceleration of the zonal flow. Initial investigations indicate that this behavior is also important in both observational data and the output of comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs). A simplified GCM is used to show that the latitude of the eddy-driven jet is well correlated with the eddy length scale. It is argued that the increase in the eddy length scale causes the poleward shift of the jet in these experiments| rather than vice versa. 12381,2011,2,3,Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming?,A global Earth System model is employed to investigate the role of direct temperature effects in the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. While model configurations with and without consideration of explicit temperature effects can reproduce observed current biogeochemical tracer distributions and estimated carbon export about equally well| carbon flow through the model ecosystem reveals strong temperature sensitivities. Depending on whether biological processes are assumed temperature sensitive or not| simulated marine net primary production (NPP) increases or decreases under projected climate change driven by a business-as-usual CO(2) emission scenario for the 21st century. This suggests that indirect temperature effects such as changes in the supply of nutrients and light are not the only relevant factors to be considered when modeling the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of direct temperature effects on marine ecosystems is required before even the direction of change in NPP can be reliably predicted. Citation: Taucher| J.| and A. Oschlies (2011)| Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L02603| doi: 10.1029/2010GL045934. 3165,2011,4,4,Carbon Accumulation in Temperate Wetlands of Sanjiang Plain| Northeast China,Wetland ecosystems contain large C stocks and are considered to play an important role in global C cycling| thus having potential implications for global climate change. The Sanjiang Plain wetland is the largest freshwater marsh in China and a principle element of the Wetlands of International Importance with three Ramsar wetland sites (Xingkai Lake| Sanjiang| and Honghe) since 2002. Nevertheless| little is known about organic C storage| and no data combining both long-and short-term C accumulation rates have been reported for this region. We used 10 cores collected from previous investigations to determine radiocarbon age and long-term (apparent) rate of C accumulation (LORCA) based on dry bulk density and organic C content; we used five recent cores representing the three main wetland types in Sanjiang Plain to estimate the recent (apparent) rate of C accumulation (RERCA) inferred from (210)Pb dating. The LORCA ranged from 5 to 61 g C m(-2) yr(-1) with an average of 22 +/- 5 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (+/- SE)| and the RERCA ranged from 170 to 384 g C m(-2) yr(-1) with a mean of 264 +/- 45 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (+/- SE). Th e average C flux was 0.05 Tg C yr(-1) for herbaceous peatland| 0.02 Tg C yr(-1) for humus marsh| and 0.03 Tg C yr(-1) for marshy meadow and the total soil C pool in Sanjiang Plain wetlands was estimated to be 0.36 Pg C. Our results are in good agreement with other published relevant data and may be useful for predicting global climate change. Th e Sanjiang Plain wetlands deserve more attention in wetland protection and restoration of the wetland ecosystem and wise use of wetlands for agricultural development. 12671,2011,4,4,CARBON AND NITROGEN STOCKS AND C:N RATIOS OF HARRAN PLAIN SOILS,Previous studies have focused on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stocks of soils because of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and terrestrial ecosystems with wide N storages. The goal of this study was to determine C amounts and stocks that are important for global warming| N amounts and stocks and C:N ratios. To this end| 16 series were opened on the Harran Plain and soil samples were taken from 100 cm depth and each horizon. The results showed that total carbon amounts varied between 0.80 and 1.85 kg C m(-2). N amounts were between 0.16 and 0.34 kg N m(-2)| C:N ratios were between 4.32:1 and 6.04:1 and bulk density (BD) was 1.23-1.34 Mg m(-3). Carbon and N stocks were determined as 10.53 Tg C and 1.96 Tg N| respectively. 12200,2011,3,3,Carbon budget and methane and nitrous oxide emissions over the growing season in a Miscanthus sinensis grassland in Tomakomai| Hokkaido| Japan,Species in the Miscanthus genus have been proposed as biofuel crops that have potential to mitigate elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) levels and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and methane (CH(4)) emissions. Miscanthus sinensis is widespread throughout Japan and has been used for biomass production for centuries. We assessed the carbon (C) budget and N(2)O and CH(4) emissions over the growing season for 2 years in a M. sinensis-dominated grassland that was naturally established around 1972 in Tomakomai| Hokkaido| Japan| which is near the northern limit for M. sinensis grassland establishment on Andisols. Average C budget was -0.31 Mg C ha-1| which indicates C was released from the grassland ecosystem to the atmosphere. Dominant components in the C budget appeared to be aboveground net primary production of plants (1.94-2.80 Mg C ha-1) and heterotrophic respiration (2.27-3.11 Mg C ha-1). The measurement of belowground net primary production (BNPP) of plants in the M. sinensis grassland was extremely variable| thus only an approximate value could be calculated. Mean C budget calculated with the approximated BNPP value was 1.47 and -0.23 Mg C ha-1 for 2008 and 2009| respectively. Given belowground biomass (9.46-9.86 Mg C ha-1) was 3.1-6.5 times higher than that of aboveground biomass may provide additional evidence suggesting this grassland represents a C sink. Average CH(4) emissions across years of -1.34 kg C ha-1 would indicate this grassland acts as an atmospheric CH(4) sink. Furthermore| average N(2)O emissions across years were 0.22 kg N ha-1. While the site may contribute N(2)O to the atmosphere| this value is lower compared with other grassland types. Global warming potential calculated with the approximated BNPP value was -5.40 and 0.95 Mg CO(2) Eq ha-1 for 2008 and 2009| respectively| and indicates this grassland could contribute to mitigation of global warming. 12600,2011,3,3,Carbon budgeting in golf course soils of Central Ohio,As global climate change (GCC) becomes an increasing societal concern| scientists are assessing soils' capacity to sequester atmospheric CO(2) to off-set anthropogenic emissions. Therefore| this study was conducted to determine C sequestration potential in golf turfgrass systems in Central Ohio| USA| and to determine the effect of management practices on the net soil C sink capacity. Ohio farmland soils converted to golf course turfgrasses sequestered C at mean rates of 3.55 +/- 0.08 Mg/ha/yr in fairways and 2.64 +/- 0.06 Mg/ha/yr in rough areas. Soils in both fairway and rough areas sequestered C to 15 cm depth. However| hidden C costs of golf course development and management were also significant and major C emissions were attributed to diesel fuel combustion (6|557 kg Ce(Carbon Equivalents)/yr)| unleaded fuel combustion (3|618 kg Ce/yr)| N fertilizer use (1|498 kg Ce/yr)| fungicide application (1|377 kg Ce/yr) and irrigation (626 kg Ce/yr)| for an overall C emission of 14.15 Mg Ce per course per year (0.30 Mg C/ha/yr). Analysis of sequestration and emissions data showed that a newly constructed golf course has a technical C sequestration capacity of 2|224 Mg C over a 91.4 year period or the equivalent of 0.44 Mg C/ha/yr. However| the large C emissions generated by maintenance practices render courses from sinks to sources within 30 years. To maximize the potential environmental benefits of turfgrass systems while increasing the economic efficiency of each site| management practices with low C-intensity should be utilized. 12819,2011,3,3,Carbon dioxide (CO2) utilizing strain database,Culling of excess carbon dioxide from our environment is one of the major challenges to scientific communities. Many physical| chemical and biological methods have been practiced to overcome this problem. The biological means of CO2 fixation using various microorganisms is gaining importance because database of their substantial role in reversing global warming. Carbon dioxide utilizing strain database (CSD) presents a comprehensive overview of microorganisms involved in biological fixation of carbon dioxide. As a part of this work| the wealth of information on CO2 utilizing strains was first collected and was then managed within four classes| that is| microorganisms| genus listing| mechanisms and literature. The first two classes consolidate information regarding the microbial genus and species| while the later two provide information regarding the CO2 fixing pathways and the taxonomic details of these organisms. The database also holds the current information about the issue. CSD can be used to gain information related to CO2 fixing microbes. It can also contribute to devising biological strategies for reducing carbon dioxide from the environment. It introduces an innovative idea of exploring the potential of these bacterial strains for reversing global warming. The CSD can be accessed at http://csd.igib.res.in. 11555,2011,3,3,Carbon dioxide capture under ambient conditions using 2-chloroethylamine,This is the first case applying 2-haloethylamine to CO(2) capture. The prospect of global warming and the urgent need to reduce atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has prompted actions at many levels. The conventional capture of carbon dioxide is predominantly based on chemical absorption using ethanolamine. Recent developments of carbon dioxide capture focus on new materials| such as ionic liquids| zeolites| membranes| carbonaceous absorbents| and metal-organic frameworks. However| no unique solution exists currently to solve the problem of carbon dioxide capture. In order to examine the efficiency of 2-chloroethylamine as an absorbent of CO(2)| we treated an aqueous solution of 2-chloroethylamine hydrochloride with CO(2) in the presence of an alkali| e.g.| NaOH| under ambient conditions. The absorption was complete within 30 min| seemingly following first-order reaction kinetics. Furthermore| we succeeded in capturing CO(2) from ambient air using 2-chloroethanolamine. The efficiency of 2-chloroethylamine as an absorbent of CO(2) could be attributed to the production of stable 2-oxazolidinone| therefore| this reaction is favored thermodynamically. Compared with previously reported absorbents| this novel system is capable of capturing CO(2) with an extremely high efficiency of 1 mol per mol absorbent under ambient conditions| even from the atmosphere. This potential method could be used to capture CO(2) particularly from small| mobile| or low-concentration emission sources. 11800,2011,3,3,CARBON DIOXIDE FIXATION BY CHLORELLA MINUTISSIMA BATCH CULTURES IN A STIRRED TANK BIOREACTOR,Increasing concentrations of CO(2) in the atmosphere is causing severe environmental destruction to the earth. To capture the excess CO(2)| its microalgal sequestration is increasingly being explored. This technique could become a profitable industry that would help mitigate global warming and produce a large number of value-added products like pigments| carotenoids| carbohydrates| lipids| etc. In this regard| three microalgal strains viz.| Calothrix sp.| Spirulina platensis and Chlorella minutissima were studied for their growth characteristics. Based upon the kinetic parameters| possible by-products| tolerance to CO(2)| etc.| the best strain was selected for further studies. The optimum pH| photoperiod| nitrate concentration and light intensity for this strain were experimentally determined. Also| studies were conducted with and without baffles| with varying aeration rates and with two different impellers and i.e.| marine propeller and disc turbine impeller| in the presence of air alone and a mixture containing air with 15% CO(2). Among the three strains studied| C. minutissima was found to be the best strain for further work. It has maximum biomass productivity at pH 6. photoperiod of 14 h light:10 h dark cycles| 5 g/l nitrate and 6000 lx light intensity. Runs with baffles yielded higher biomass. Marine propeller gave better biomass yields in both runs i.e.| with and without additional CO(2). Also| the optimum aeration rate was determined to be 1 lpm. The carbohydrate| lipid| protein| chlorophyll and carotenoid content of the biomass were estimated. Biotechnol. & Biotechnol. Eq. 2011| 25(3)| 2468-2476 12510,2011,3,3,Carbon footprint of shopping (grocery) bags in China| Hong Kong and India,Carbon footprint has become a term often used by the media in recent days. The human carbon footprint is professed to be a very serious global threat and every nation is looking at the possible options to reduce it since its consequences are alarming. A carbon footprint is a measure of the impact of human activities on earth and in particular on the environment; more specifically it relates to climate change and to the total amount of greenhouse gases produced| measured in units of carbon dioxide emitted. Effort of individuals in minimizing the carbon footprint is vital to save our planet. This article reports a study of the carbon footprint of various types of shopping bags (plastic| paper| non-woven and woven) using life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) technique in two stages. The first stage (baseline study)| comprised the study of the impact of different types of shopping bags in the manufacturing phase| without considering their usage and disposal phases (cradle to gate stage). The LCIA was accomplished by the IPCC 2007 method| developed by the Inter Panel on Climate Change in SIMAPRO 7.2. The GWP (Global Warming Potential) values calculated by the IPCC 2007 method for 100 years were considered as a directive to compare the carbon footprint made by the different types of shopping bags under consideration. The next stage was the study of the carbon footprint of these bags including their usage and disposal phases (cradle to grave stage) and the results derived were compared with the results derived from the baseline study| which is the major focus of this research work. The values for usage and end-of-life phases were obtained from the survey questionnaire performed amongst different user groups of shopping bags in China| Hong Kong and India. The results show that the impact of different types of shopping bags ill terms of their carbon footprint potential is very high if no usage and disposal options were provided. When the carbon footprint values from different disposal options were compared| the carbon footprint values were lower in the case where a higher percentage of reuse is preferred to recycling and disposing to landfill. The results indicate that a higher percentage of reuse could significantly scale down the carbon footprint. Once the shopping bags reached the point where they can no longer be reused| they must be forwarded to recycling options| rather than being disposed to landfill. At this juncture| consumer's perceptions and behaviours in connection with the respective government's policies in promoting 82 facilitating recycling systems could be critical in reducing the carbon footprint of various shopping bags. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11917,2011,4,2,Carbon footprint: current methods of estimation,Increasing greenhouse gaseous concentration in the atmosphere is perturbing the environment to cause grievous global warming and associated consequences. Following the rule that only measurable is manageable| mensuration of greenhouse gas intensiveness of different products| bodies| and processes is going on worldwide| expressed as their carbon footprints. The methodologies for carbon footprint calculations are still evolving and it is emerging as an important tool for greenhouse gas management. The concept of carbon footprinting has permeated and is being commercialized in all the areas of life and economy| but there is little coherence in definitions and calculations of carbon footprints among the studies. There are disagreements in the selection of gases| and the order of emissions to be covered in footprint calculations. Standards of greenhouse gas accounting are the common resources used in footprint calculations| although there is no mandatory provision of footprint verification. Carbon footprinting is intended to be a tool to guide the relevant emission cuts and verifications| its standardization at international level are therefore necessary. Present review describes the prevailing carbon footprinting methods and raises the related issues. 12284,2011,3,4,Carbon resources of residue and manure in Japanese farmland soils,This study calculated the carbon (C) input to farmland soils in Japan in an effort to investigate the potential increase in soil C of farmland soils by proper application of crop residues (straw and root) and manure. The calculation was based on inventory and activity data obtained from statistics| literature sources and inquiry reports for the year 2005. The total C resources from crop residues and manure in Japan were 6.1 Tg C year(-1) and 2.3 Tg C year(-1)| of which 4.9 Tg C year(-1) and 1.9 Tg C year(-1)| respectively| were applied to farmland soil. The average C application rate was 1.7 +/- A 1.6 Mg C ha farmland(-1) year(-1) and the proportion of manure was 23 +/- A 26%. One scenario that improved the allocation of manure and crop residue input to farmland soil increased the average C input to farmland soil to 1.8 +/- A 1.3 Mg C ha farmland(-1) year(-1). This agricultural C flow represented only a small percentage of the global warming potential of the whole of Japan. Thus| management of C resources in the agricultural sector should focus on the sustainable use of soil rather than the C sequestration potential of soil. To improve the C flow for areas with high C input| the transportation of manure to neighboring municipalities failed to reduce the excessive amount of manure since those areas are concentrated in only a few regions. Other measures were required to reduce environmental problems due to the over-supply of manure to farmland soils. For areas with low C input| the introduction of green manure| changes in cultivation methods| and land use type itself must be considered in relation to the individual C requirements specific to land use| soil type and climate conditions. 12293,2011,3,2,Carbonation of brine impacted fractionated coal fly ash: Implications for CO(2) sequestration,Coal combustion by-products such as fly ash (FA)| brine and CO(2) from coal fired power plants have the potential to impact negatively on the environment. FA and brine can contaminate the soil| surface and ground water through leaching of toxic elements present in their matrices while CO(2) has been identified as a green house gas that contributes significantly towards the global warming effect. Reaction of CO(2) with FA/brine slurry can potentially provide a viable route for CO(2) sequestration via formation of mineral carbonates. Fractionated FA has varying amounts of CaO which not only increases the brine pH but can also be converted into an environmentally benign calcite. Carbonation efficiency of fractionated and brine impacted FA was investigated in this study. Controlled carbonation reactions were carried out in a reactor set-up to evaluate the effect of fractionation on the carbonation efficiency of FA. Chemical and mineralogical characteristics of fresh and carbonated ash were evaluated using XRF| SEM| and XRD. Brine effluents were characterized using ICP-MS and IC. A factorial experimental approach was employed in testing the variables. The 20-150 mu m size fraction was observed to have the highest CO(2) sequestration potential of 71.84 kg of CO(2) per ton of FA while the >150 mu m particles had the lowest potential of 36.47 kg of CO(2) per ton of FA. Carbonation using brine resulted in higher degree of calcite formation compared to the ultra-pure water carbonated residues. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11921,2011,3,3,Case study on the carbon consumption of two metropolitan cities,The cities merit special attention in global warming since they produce up to 80% of the global greenhouse gas emissions. Even though this has been widely acknowledged| only few papers exist that have studied cities holistically from a demand| i.e.| consumption| perspective. The study presents a detailed analysis of the carbon footprint of two metropolitan cities from a consumption perspective. With the analysis of consumer carbon footprints (carbon consumption)| the distribution of emissions in the key source categories is presented and compared. The study utilizes Finnish consumer survey data by cities| regional emission data for key processes| and general emission data to produce a hybrid LCA model for a holistic assessment of city-level greenhouse gas emissions from the consumption perspective. The study results showed the carbon consumption to be 13.2 t CO2e per person in Helsinki with a 17|400 a|not sign annual consumption expenditure and 10.3 t CO2e per person in Porvoo with a 15|900 a|not sign annual consumption expenditure| respectively. The dominant carbon sources for metropolitan living are heat and electricity| building and property| private driving| and services. Within the cities| some significant differences were found. The carbon emissions from energy consumption are 4.5 t CO2e for an average consumer in Helsinki| whereas an average consumer in Porvoo only causes 2.0 t CO2e due to the cleaner energy production in Porvoo. On the other hand| private driving causes 2.0 t CO2e in Porvoo| but only 1.3 t in Helsinki. The overall trip generation in Helsinki is only half of that in Porvoo| and also| the usage of public transport is at a substantially higher level in Helsinki. The current results contradict interestingly some earlier studies in finding that the theoretical carbon-reducing influence of city density is overridden with other factors| such as the type of energy production| energy efficiency of the housing stock| and increased use of services. In our study| Helsinki represents a metropolitan area with a denser structure and a more efficient public transport system| but still consuming around 25% more carbon emissions than the other city in the metropolitan area| Porvoo. The sensitivity analysis showed that even with the normalization of the key parameters between the two cities| the main finding still holds. The evaluation of the carbon footprint of cities from the consumption perspective| instead of a more traditional production perspective| seems to offer an interesting new insight into the carbon footprints of the cities. It identifies similar key sources of carbon as production-oriented studies but further emphasizes the significance of the utilized services in the carbon footprint evaluations. In the future| the carbon footprint of services| especially in the service-intensive economies and cities that tend to outsource their manufacturing and carbon emissions| should be further examined since they cause an ever increasing proportion of the carbon consumption of consumers. 11847,2011,3,3,Catalytic applications of amorphous alloys: Expectations| achievements| and disappointments,This review intends to summarize the major achievements in the application of amorphous alloys as precursors of catalyst materials. This non-traditional catalyst preparation method may provide supported catalysts with novel chemical and structural properties. Selected examples for both glassy alloy precursors and those fabricated by mechanochemistry include CO oxidation over binary and ternary alloys| dehydrogenation over Cu-M (M = Ti| Zr or Hf)| one-step synthesis of methyl isobutyl ketone| and selective hydrogenation of unsaturated carbonyl compounds. Ni alloys for methanation developed for the project to solve global warming by recycling carbon dioxide are also discussed. (C) 2010 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved. 12547,2011,3,3,Catalytic routes for the conversion of biomass into liquid hydrocarbon transportation fuels,Concerns about diminishing fossil fuel reserves along with global warming effects caused by increasing levels of CO(2) in the atmosphere are driving society toward the search for new renewable sources of energy that can substitute for coal| natural gas and petroleum in the current energy system. Lignocellulosic biomass is abundant| and it has the potential to significantly displace petroleum in the production of fuels for the transportation sector. Ethanol| the main biomass-derived fuel used today| has benefited from production by a well-established technology and by partial compatibility with the current transportation infrastructure| leading to the domination of the world biofuel market. However| ethanol suffers from important limitations as a fuel (e.g.| low energy density| high solubility in water) than can be overcome by designing strategies to convert non-edible lignocellulosic biomass into liquid hydrocarbon fuels (LHF) chemically similar to those currently used in internal combustion engines. The present review describes the main routes available to carry out such deep chemical transformation (e. g.| gasification| pyrolysis| and aqueous-phase catalytic processing)| with particular emphasis on those pathways involving aqueous-phase catalytic reactions. These latter catalytic routes achieve the required transformations in biomass-derived molecules with controlled chemistry and high yields| but require pretreatment/hydrolysis steps to overcome the recalcitrance of lignocellulose. To be economically viable| these aqueous-phase routes should be carried out with a small number of reactors and with minimum utilization of external fossil fuel-based hydrogen sources| as illustrated in the examples presented here. 12708,2011,3,3,CCS TECHNOLOGIES IN THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKETS,The use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) on an industrial and commercial scale is essential to any hope of meeting global climate change targets. While the components pieces of the technology exist| the application of the technique and assessment of the economical effectiveness are in its infancy. Full-scale deployment has yet to be achieved on fossil fuel power plant anywhere. In the presented paper Carbon Capture and Storage technologies in the European competitive energy markets on the basis of the numerical model LIBEMOD| used to identify the 2030 market equilibrium| are discussed. Review of various sources for CCS technical efficiency and cost estimates| for the existing coal and gas power plants| retrofitted by CCS and new (greenfields) ones arc performed. Some discussions and conclusions are also presented. 12078,2011,5,3,Cenozoic climate gradients in Eurasia - a palaeo-perspective on future climate change?,Recent studies in the frame of the NECLIME (Neogene Climate Evolution in Eurasia) network provide a comprehensive inventory of continental palaeoclimate data for various time slices reconstructed from the palaeobotanical record. The integrative analysis of spatial gradients and patterns observed from the proxy data| together with data obtained from numeric modelling studies considerably improved our knowledge about the functioning of the climate system in the Cenozoic. When compared to the present an overall warmer| more humid climate existed. Cenozoic climates are characterized by warm high latitudes| shallow latitudinal and longitudinal gradients and wet continental interiors while concentration of greenhouse gases was about at the present-day level or considerably higher. Thus| these past climates potentially are valuable to better understand future climate change because they allow empirical access to climate situations that do not or not yet exist today. In the present study| continental climate data calculated from micro- and macrofloras using the Coexistence Approach are analysed in order to compare past gradients and patterns and their anomalies relative to present-day conditions with future climate change scenarios. For the case study| three time intervals are selected: The Mid-Eocene represents a very warm period of the Cenozoic exemplifying greenhouse conditions with high atmospheric CO(2) of over 1.100 ppmv. The Mid-Miocene is known as outstanding warm time interval as well. The concentration of greenhouse gases is still controversially discussed| but was certainly below the Eocene level. A third interval selected| the Tortonian| represents a time-span of subsequent cooling with the beginning of Arctic glaciation. For this period| a pre-industrial CO(2) level is assumed. It is shown that the study of past climate patterns provides important clues when evaluating modelling results for future scenarios. Anomalies predicted under global warming partly coincide with the palaeoclimate data sets. As an example for greenhouse conditions| the Mid-Eocene data also show a strong warming of the high latitudes and a significant positive anomaly of winter temperatures in the continental interior as in the model study for the future scenario. However| for the Tortonian where a pre-industrial CO(2) can be assumed data show the best agreement with predicted patterns. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12829,2011,4,4,Centennial scale warming over Japan: are the rural stations really rural?,In this study| we used two novel methods to estimate urban contamination in the Japanese temperature record of the last century. First| we tested different criteria for choosing the rural stations| and found little sensitivity to the method| though the presence of a decreasing local population trend appeared to be a useful indicator. Second| we investigated the relationship between the regional sea surface temperature (SST) and surface air temperature over land| and found a very strong relationship across the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 multi-model ensemble. Applying this relationship to observational SST data indicates little or no contamination of the trends from the stations identified as rural. Copyright (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society 11582,2011,3,4,Ceria-zirconia mixed oxides as thermal resistant catalysts for the decomposition of nitrous oxide at high temperature,This present study deals with the development of thermally stable catalysts for the decomposition of nitrous oxide. There is actually a growing interest to minimise the emissions of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) as side-product from nitric acid plants due to a global warming potential of approximately 300 times higher than that of CO(2). Different strategies have already been implemented at industrial scale but they are still suffering from significant drawbacks essentially associated to a poor selectivity and sometimes a short lifetime in particular when the catalytic process is inserted downstream the ammonia burner. In those critical conditions| with high residual temperature of similar to 900 degrees C| significant surface and bulk reconstructions take place and then lead to drastic losses of specific surface area and related catalytic performances in the decomposition of N(2)O to N(2). Previous investigations performed in our laboratory revealed the potentiality of zirconia particularly after yttria incorporation [Appl. Catal. B 62 (2005) 236]. Novel developments of more stable ceria-zirconia based catalysts are reported in this study. Further stabilisation and enhancement in activity have been discussed on the basis of oxygen mobility related to structural properties. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3458,2011,2,4,Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing geo-politics and changing climate,For most of the 20th century| the Nile River has been the source of political tensions and low-intensity conflicts among three of its major riparian countries (Ethiopia| Sudan and Egypt). However| since the late 1990s| the Nile basin countries-with the encouragement and support of the international community-have made some attempts to establish basin-wide cooperative institutions. This process of engagement and collaboration is presently under severe stress due to increasing demand and decreasing supply of water resources in the basin. This situation may be complicated further by the global climate change| which is anticipated to result in long-term changes in the volume and pattern of runoff in the Nile River system. Moreover| the emergence of China as a major player in the power politics of the Nile basin has facilitated a number of unilateral initiatives for large-scale water development projects. In this context| this paper critically examines the survival and sustainability of water cooperation endeavours in the Nile basin as the river faces challenges from the global climate change and shifting regional geo-politics. 11561,2011,2,4,Change of Tipra Glacier in the Garhwal Himalaya| India| between 1962 and 2008,Systematic observations of Himalayan glaciers over the last few decades provide reliable indications of continuous shrinkage of most of the glaciers. Changes in mass| volume| area and length of glaciers are reported| but an up-to-date regional assessment of glacier changes is lacking. In the present study| satellite data| maps and ground-based measurements have been used to obtain the snout retreat and surface changes of the Tipra Glacier in the Alaknanda river basin of the Garhwal Himalaya for the period 1962-2008. The study reveals that a large part of the glacier has been detached from the main trunk and separated into the Tipra (7.5 km(2)) and Rataban (7.4 km(2)) Glaciers as it had one outlet (snout) in 1987. Between 1962 and 2002 estimated surface area reduced by similar to 18% and snout retreat was similar to 535 m with an average rate of 13.4 m a(-1). Measurement of snout positions of the Tipra and Rataban Glaciers from 2002 to 2008 indicates an enhanced annual retreat of 21.3 and 21.2 m a(-1)| respectively. Total frontal area vacated during this period was calculated to be 0.084 km(2) for Tipra Glacier and 0.028 km(2) for Rataban Glacier. The estimated Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) rise was 76 m for the Tipra Glacier and 57 m for the Rataban Glacier. Accumulation Area Ratio (AAR) was calculated as 0.47 for the Tipra Glacier and 0.49 for the Rataban Glacier| during the study period. The observations compared with the other studies carried out in the region show a significant reduction in glacier areas. The increased retreat rate of glacier snouts is probably a direct consequence of global warming. The present snouts of the Tipra and Rataban Glaciers are located at altitudes of 3865 and 4120 m| respectively. 12437,2011,2,4,Changes in chromosomal polymorphism and global warming: The case of Drosophila subobscura from Apatin (Serbia),In this study| chromosomal inversion polymorphism data for a natural population of Drosophila subobscura from a swampy region near the town of Apatin (Serbia) were compared with data for the same population collected approximately 15 years earlier. The pattern of chromosomal inversion polymorphism changed over time. There were significant increases in the frequency of characteristic southern latitude ("warm" adapted) chromosomal arrangements and significant decreases in the frequency of characteristic northern latitude ("cold" adapted) chromosomal arrangements in the O and U chromosomes. The chromosomal arrangements O(3+4) and O(3+4+22) (derived from the O(3+4) arrangement) showed significant increases in 2008 and 2009 with regard to the 1994 sample. There was also a significant increase (similar to 50%) in the U(1+2) arrangement| while U(1+8+2) (a typical southern arrangement) was detected for the first time. Since the Apatin swampy population of D. subobscura has existed for a long time in a stable habitat with high humidity that has not been changed by man our results indicate that natural selection has produced chromosomal changes in response to the increase in temperature that has occurred in the Balkan Peninsula of central southeastern European. 12310,2011,2,3,Changes in global-mean precipitation in response to warming| greenhouse gas forcing and black carbon,Precipitation changes are a key driver of climate change impacts. On average| global precipitation is expected to increase with warming. However| model projections show that precipitation does not scale linearly with surface air temperature. Instead| global hydrological sensitivity| the relative change of global-mean precipitation per degree of global warming| seems to vary across different scenarios and even with time. Based on output from 20 coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models for up to 7 different scenarios| we discuss to what extent these variations can be explained by changes in the tropospheric energy budget. Our analysis supports earlier findings that long-and shortwave absorbers initially decrease global-mean precipitation. Including these absorbers into a multivariate scaling approach allows to closely reproduce the simulated global-mean precipitation changes. We find a sensitivity of global-mean precipitation to tropospheric greenhouse gas forcing of -0.42 +/- 0.23%/(W/m(2)) ( uncertainty given as one std of inter-model variability) and to black carbon emissions of -0.07 +/- 0.02%/(Mt/yr). In combination with these two predictors the dominant longer-term effect of surface air temperatures on precipitation is estimated to be 2.2 +/- 0.52%/K - much lower than the 6.5%/K that may be expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship.
11553,2011,2,4,Changes in life-history traits of the water strider Aquarius paludum in accordance with global warming,Seasonal records of nymphs of the water strider Aquarius paludum Fabricius (Heteroptera: Gerridae) at a waterway in Kochi prefecture| Japan (33 degrees 00'N to 33 degrees 30'N)| in 2007| show that populations of new generation adults occur four or more times during the year| in mid and late May; late July to early August; September; and October to November. In laboratory experiments| more than 50% of adults are reproductive| irrespective of photoperiod| and this ratio increases to 80% even under a short-day LD 11.5 : 13.5 h photocycle| which corresponds to the winter season at Kochi (33 degrees N). There is a diminishing photoperiodic response in relation to the induction of diapause compared with measurements made in previous years (1995-1997)| suggesting that reproduction may be possible over a much longer period in the near future (and even in winter) if local climate warming is sustained. A high proportion of males sampled in 2008 have small testes and a high proportion of females do not have mature oocytes even in summer. This contrasts with earlier data showing that the testis volume index for the same period is greater in 1995-1997| and that 75% of females have mature oocytes. These changes suggest that the Kochi-Nankoku population of A. paludum is beginning to show partial aestivation. Overwintering adults of both sexes are found to have no mature flight muscles in October/November 2008. This is in marked contrast with earlier data from 1995 and 2004. Adults that are reared in the laboratory also show a lower flight propensity in response to shorter day lengths. The absence of mature flight muscles in the autumn and lower flight propensity under shorter days may indicate a cessation of dispersal between the summer habitats and overwintering sites on land far from the waterways. Taken together| these data suggest that populations of A. paludum in the Kochi-Nankoku region are continuing to show adaptive changes| apparently in relation to global warming. 12701,2011,2,3,Changes in potential habitat of 147 North American breeding bird species in response to redistribution of trees and climate following predicted climate change,Mounting evidence shows that organisms have already begun to respond to global climate change. Advances in our knowledge of how climate shapes species distributional patterns has helped us better understand the response of birds to climate change. However| the distribution of birds across the landscape is also driven by biotic and abiotic components| including habitat characteristics. We therefore developed statistical models of 147 bird species distributions in the eastern United States| using climate| elevation| and the distributions of 39 tree species to predict contemporary bird distributions. We used randomForest| a robust regression-based decision tree ensemble method to predict contemporary bird distributions. These models were then projected onto three models of climate change under high and low emission scenarios for both climate and the projected change in suitable habitat for the 39 tree species. The resulting bird species models indicated that breeding habitat will decrease by at least 10% for 6179 species (depending on model and emissions scenario) and increase by at least 10% for 3852 species in the eastern United States. Alternatively| running the species models using only climate/elevation (omitting tree species)| we found that the predictive power of these models was significantly reduced (p<0.001). When these climate/elevation-only models were projected onto the climate change scenarios| the change in suitable habitat was more extreme in 60% of the species. In the end| the strong associations with vegetation tempers a climate/elevation-only response to climate change and indicates that refugia of suitable habitat may persist for these bird species in the eastern US| even after the redistribution of tree species. These results suggest the importance of interacting biotic processes and that further fine-scale research exploring how climate change may disrupt species specific requirements is needed. 12482,2011,2,4,Changes in precipitation with climate change,There is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying| thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. However| the water holding capacity of air increases by about 7% per 1 C warming| which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Hence| storms| whether individual thunderstorms| extratropical rain or snow storms| or tropical cyclones| supplied with increased moisture| produce more intense precipitation events. Such events are observed to be widely occurring| even where total precipitation is decreasing: 'it never rains but it pours!' This increases the risk of flooding. The atmospheric and surface energy budget plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle| and also in the slower rate of change that occurs in total precipitation than total column water vapor. With modest changes in winds| patterns of precipitation do not change much| but result in dry areas becoming drier (generally throughout the subtropics) and wet areas becoming wetter| especially in the mid-to high latitudes: the 'rich get richer and the poor get poorer'. This pattern is simulated by climate models and is projected to continue into the future. Because| with warming| more precipitation occurs as rain instead of snow and snow melts earlier| there is increased runoff and risk of flooding in early spring| but increased risk of drought in summer| especially over continental areas. However| with more precipitation per unit of upward motion in the atmosphere| i.e. 'more bang for the buck'| atmospheric circulation weakens| causing monsoons to falter. In the tropics and subtropics| precipitation patterns are dominated by shifts as sea surface temperatures change| with El Nino a good example. The volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to an unprecedented drop in land precipitation and runoff| and to widespread drought| as precipitation shifted from land to oceans and evaporation faltered| providing lessons for possible geoengineering. Most models simulate precipitation that occurs prematurely and too often| and with insufficient intensity| resulting in recycling that is too large and a lifetime of moisture in the atmosphere that is too short| which affects runoff and soil moisture. 11864,2011,2,3,Changes in storm tracks and energy transports in a warmer climate simulated by the GFDL CM2.1 model,Storm tracks play a major role in regulating the precipitation and hydrological cycle in midlatitudes. The changes in the location and amplitude of the storm tracks in response to global warming will have significant impacts on the poleward transport of heat| momentum and moisture and on the hydrological cycle. Recent studies have indicated a poleward shift of the storm tracks and the midlatitude precipitation zone in the warming world that will lead to subtropical drying and higher latitude moistening. This study agrees with this key feature for not only the annual mean but also different seasons and for the zonal mean as well as horizontal structures based on the analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2.1 model simulations. Further analyses show that the meridional sensible and latent heat fluxes associated with the storm tracks shift poleward and intensify in both boreal summer and winter in the late twenty-first century (years 2081-2100) relative to the latter half of the twentieth century (years 1961-2000). The maximum dry Eady growth rate is examined to determine the effect of global warming on the time mean state and associated available potential energy for transient growth. The trend in maximum Eady growth rate is generally consistent with the poleward shift and intensification of the storm tracks in the middle latitudes of both hemispheres in both seasons. However| in the lower troposphere in northern winter| increased meridional eddy transfer within the storm tracks is more associated with increased eddy velocity| stronger correlation between eddy velocity and eddy moist static energy| and longer eddy length scale. The changing characteristics of baroclinic instability are| therefore| needed to explain the storm track response as climate warms. Diagnosis of the latitude-by-latitude energy budget for the current and future climate demonstrates how the coupling between radiative and surface heat fluxes and eddy heat and moisture transport influences the midlatitude storm track response to global warming. Through radiative forcing by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and water vapor| more energy is gained within the tropics and subtropics| while in the middle and high latitudes energy is reduced through increased outgoing terrestrial radiation in the Northern Hemisphere and increased ocean heat uptake in the Southern Hemisphere. This enhanced energy imbalance in the future climate requires larger atmospheric energy transports in the midlatitudes which are partially accomplished by intensified storm tracks. Finally a sequence of cause and effect for the storm track response in the warming world is proposed that combines energy budget constraints with baroclinic instability theory. 11918,2011,2,4,Changes in the area of inland lakes in arid regions of central Asia during the past 30 years,Inland lakes are major surface water resource in arid regions of Central Asia. The area changes in these lakes have been proved to be the results of regional climate changes and recent human activities. This study aimed at investigating the area variations of the nine major lakes in Central Asia over the last 30 years. Firstly| multi-temporal Landsat imagery in 1975| 1990| 1999| and 2007 were used to delineate lake extents automatically based on Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) threshold segmentation| then lake area variations were detailed in three decades and the mechanism of these changes was analyzed with meteorological data and hydrological data. The results indicated that the total surface areas of these nine lakes had decreased from 91|402.06 km(2) to 46|049.23 km(2) during 1975-2007| accounting for 49.62% of their original area of 1975. Tail-end lakes in flat areas had shrunk dramatically as they were induced by both climate changes and human impacts| while alpine lakes remained relatively stable due to the small precipitation variations. With different water usage of river outlets| the variations of open lakes were more flexible than those of other two types. According to comprehensive analyses| different types of inland lakes presented different trends of area changes under the background of global warming effects in Central Asia| which showed that the increased human activities had broken the balance of water cycles in this region. 12472,2011,2,4,Changes in the East Asian Cold Season since 2000,Using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and observational data from meteorological stations in China| the evolution of the East Asian cold season (EACS) and its long-term changes after 2000 were studied. A monsoon tendency index (MITI)| defined as the temporal difference of the East Asian monsoon index| indicates that the winter monsoon setup has been postponed in autumn| while the setup has quickened in early winter. In mid winter| the EACS breakdown process has accelerated| while it has lingered in late winter. The authors suggest that the postponement of monsoon setup in autumn may be caused by strong global warming at the lower levels| which further limits the setup time period and leads to the quickening of the setup process in early winter. Meanwhile| a north-south seesaw of temperature tendency change in China can be observed in December and February| which may be related to large-scale circulation changes in the stratosphere| characterized by a polar warming in mid winter and polar cooling in early spring. This linkage is possibly caused by the dynamical coupling between stratosphere and troposphere| via the variation of planetary wave activities. in spring| the speed of the. EACS breakdown has decreased| which favors the revival of the EACS in East Asia. 11802,2011,2,4,Changes in the phenology of the ground beetle Pterostichus madidus,A growing body of evidence shows that climate change can alter the phenology of plants and animals. In this study long-term data from the UK Environmental Change Network (ECN) were analyzed to investigate whether there has been a change in the phenology of the ground beetle Pterostichus madidus (Fabricius| 1775). Pitfall trap data were available from 12 ECN sites across the United Kingdom| most of which have been in operation for more than 15 years. Weather and vegetation datasets were also utilized. Pitfall trap lines were categorized to eight vegetation types. Trend analysis over time was carried out first using all the available dates of capture events| then the datasets grouped by vegetation type and site. Shifts in high-activity periods were also analyzed. P. madidus appearance dates advanced significantly at seven sites and in five vegetation types. Peak activity advanced at two sites. At one site the timing of activity became significantly later. The last day of activity did not change significantly| supporting the theory that the cessation of the activity period is more likely to be controlled by photoperiod than temperature. The relationships between phenological variables and climatic factors were also investigated. However| no significant correlations were detected. These results demonstrate that between 1992 and 2008| phenology of P. madidus at seven sites from the eight analyzed has changed. Global warming may be driving these changes and future work will investigate underlying processes. 12390,2011,2,3,Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet,The future of tropical forests has become one of the iconic issues in climate-change science. A number of studies that have explored this subject have tended to focus on the output from one or a few climate models| which work at low spatial resolution| whereas society and conservation-relevant assessment of potential impacts requires a finer scale. This study focuses on the role of climate on the current and future distribution of humid tropical forests (HTFs). We first characterize their contemporary climatological niche using annual rainfall and maximum climatological water stress| which also adequately describe the current distribution of other biomes within the tropics. As a first-order approximation of the potential extent of HTFs in future climate regimes defined by global warming of 2 degrees C and 4 degrees C| we investigate changes in the niche through a combination of climate-change anomaly patterns and higher resolution (5 km) maps of current climatology. The climate anomalies are derived using data from 17 coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) used in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our results confirm some risk of forest retreat| especially in eastern Amazonia| Central America and parts of Africa| but also indicate a potential for expansion in other regions| for example around the Congo Basin. The finer spatial scale enabled the depiction of potential resilient and vulnerable zones with practically useful detail. We further refine these estimates by considering the impact of new environmental regimes on plant water demand using the UK Met Office land- surface scheme (of the HadCM3 AOGCM). The CO(2)-related reduction in plant water demand lowers the risk of die-back and can lead to possible niche expansion in many regions. The analysis presented here focuses primarily on hydrological determinants of HTF extent. We conclude by discussing the role of other factors| notably the physiological effects of higher temperature. 12092,2011,2,3,Changes in the vertical profiles of mean temperature and humidity in the Hawaiian Islands,Recent drought and warmer than normal temperatures affecting the Hawaiian Islands have raised concern among natural resource managers that impacts associated with global warming are becoming manifest in the region. A number of studies published over the past few decades have documented changes in the climate of Hawai'i that are generally consistent with expectations from climate change projections| such as those found in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report (IPCC| 2007). In this study we examine a suite of climate variables that are important from the point of view of ecosystem impacts| but that also relate to societal concerns such Island water resources. Our results are consistent with previous studies in showing a significant warming trend| especially evident at higher elevations. In particular| we document a decrease in the frequency of occurrence of freezing temperatures in the upper slopes of the higher terrain on Maui and the Big Island and a concomitant rise in the freezing level surface in the region that is in good agreement with analogous studies done for other mountainous areas of the world. Temperatures at standard reference surfaces in the free atmosphere have warmed throughout the troposphere| with a maximum near the 850 mb level. The warming peak at this level could be associated with an increased frequency of occurrence and/or lowering of the trade wind inversion layer. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3205,2011,2,4,Changes in variability of soil moisture alter microbial community C and N resource use,Grassland ecosystems contain similar to 12% of global soil organic carbon (C) stocks and are located in regions where global climate change will likely alter the timing and size of precipitation events| increasing soil moisture variability. In response to increased soil moisture variability and other forms of stress| microorganisms can induce ecosystem-scale alterations in C and N cycling processes through alterations in their function. We explored the influence of physiological stress on microbial communities by manipulating moisture variability in soils from four grassland sites in the Great Plains| representing a precipitation gradient of 485-1003 mm y(-1). Keeping water totals constant| we manipulated the frequency and size of water additions and dry down periods in these soils by applying water in two different| two-week long wetting-drying cycles in a 72-day laboratory incubation. To assess the effects of the treatments on microbial community function| we measured C mineralization| N dynamics| extracellular enzyme activities (EEA) and a proxy for substrate use efficiency. In soils from all four sites undergoing a long interval (LI) treatment for which added water was applied once at the beginning of each two-week cycle| 1.4-2.0 times more C was mineralized compared to soils undergoing a short interval (SI) treatment| for which four wetting events were evenly distributed over each two-week cycle. A proxy for carbon use efficiency (CUE) suggests declines in this parameter with the greater soil moisture stress imposed in LI soils from all four different native soil moisture regimes. A decline in CUE in LI soils may have been related to an increased effort by microbes to obtain N-rich organic substrates for use as protection against osmotic shock| consistent with EEA data. These results contrast with similar in situ studies of response to increased soil moisture variability and may indicate divergent autotrophic vs. heterotrophic responses to increased moisture variability. Increases in microbial N demand and decreases in microbial CUE with increased moisture variability observed in this study| regardless of the soils' site of origin| imply that these systems may experience enhanced heterotrophic CO(2) release and declines in plant-available N with climate change. This has particularly important implications for C budgets in these grasslands when coupled with the declines in net primary productivity reported in other studies as a result of increases in precipitation variability across the region. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11779,2011,2,4,Changes of Accumulated Temperature| Growing Season and Precipitation in the North China Plain from 1961 to 2009,Using the high-quality observed meteorological data| changes of the thermal conditions and precipitation over the North China Plain from 1961 to 2009 were examined. Trends of accumulated temperature and negative temperature| growing season duration| as well as seasonal and annual rainfalls at 48 stations were analyzed. The results show that the accumulated temperature increased significantly by 348.5 degrees C day due to global warming during 1961-2009 while the absolute accumulated negative temperature decreased apparently by 175.3 degrees C day. The start of growing season displayed a significant negative trend of -14.3 days during 1961-2009| but the end of growing season delayed insignificantly by 6.7 days. As a result| the length of growing season increased by 21.0 days. The annual and autumn rainfalls decreased slightly while summer rainfall and summer rainy days decreased significantly. In contrast| spring rainfall increased slightly without significant trends. All the results indicate that the thermal conditions were improved to benefit the crop growth over the North China Plain during 1961-2009| and the decreasing annual and summer rainfalls had no direct negative impact on the crop growth. But the decreasing summer rainfall was likely to influence the water resources in North China| especially the underground water| reservoir water| as well as river runoff| which would have influenced the irrigation of agriculture. 12744,2011,2,4,Changing freeze-thaw seasons in northern high latitudes and associated influences on evapotranspiration,Seasonal frozen states in the northern terrestrial cryosphere limit vegetation photosynthetic activities and evapotranspiration (ET) through cold temperature constraints to biological processes and chemical unavailability of water as a result of being frozen. Seasonal transitions of the landscape between predominantly frozen and thawed conditions are analogous to a biospheric and hydrological on/off switch| with marked differences in ET| vegetation productivity and other biological activity between largely dormant winter and active summer conditions. We investigated changes in freezethaw (FT) seasons and ET from 1983 to 2006 and their connections in the northern cryosphere by analyzing independent satellite remote sensing derived FT and ET records. Our findings show that the northern cryosphere (>= 40 degrees N) has experienced advancing (-2.5 days/decade; P = 0.005) and lengthening (3.5 days/decade; P = 0.007) non-frozen season trends over the 24-year period| coinciding with an upward trend (6.4 mm/year/decade; P = 0.014) in regional mean annual ET over the same period. Regional average timing of spring primary thaw and the annual non-frozen period are highly correlated with regional annual ET (vertical bar r vertical bar >= 0.75; P < 0.001)| with corresponding impacts to annual ET of approximately 0.6 and 0.5% per day| respectively. The impact of primary fall freeze timing on ET is relatively minor compared with primary spring thaw timing. Earlier onset of the non-frozen season generally promotes annual ET in colder areas but appears to suppress summer ET by increasing drought stress in the southernmost parts of the domain where water supply is the leading constraint to ET. The cumulative effect of future freeze-thaw changes on ET in the region will largely depend on future changes of large-scale atmosphere circulations and rates of vegetation disturbance and adaptation to continued warming. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 12450,2011,3,4,Characterising dye-sensitised solar cells,In today's society there is a vast and in many cases not fully appreciated dependence on electrical power for everyday life. Furthermore| with growing energy and environmental concerns arising due to fossil fuel depletion and climate change/global warming| ever increasing attention is being given to alternative and/or renewable sources of energy such as biomass| hydropower| geothermal| wind and solar energy. Devices such as photovoltaic cells are therefore of enormous importance. The more widely used and commercially available silicon (semiconductor) based cells currently have the greatest reported efficiencies and have received considerable attention. However the manufacturing of these cells is complex and expensive due to the cost and difficulty of producing and processing pure silicon. One alternative technology being explored is the development of dye-sensitisecl solar cells (DSSCs) or Gratzel cells. In this paper we report on our current work to develop simple test equipment and optoelectronic models describing the performance and behaviours of DSSCs. We describe some of the background to our work and also some of our initial experimental results. Based on these results we aim to characterise the opto-electrical properties and bulk characteristics of simple dye-sensitised solar cells and then to proceed to test new cell compositions. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 11916,2011,3,4,Characteristic of Local Boiling Heat Transfer of Ammonia and Ammonia/Water Binary Mixture on the Plate Type Evaporator,Power generation using small temperature difference such as ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) and discharged thermal energy conversion (DTEC) is expected to be the countermeasures against global warming problem. As ammonia and ammonia/water are used in evaporators for OTEC and DTEC as working fluids| the research of their local boiling heat transfer is important for improvement of the power generation efficiency. Measurements of local boiling heat transfer coefficients were performed for ammonia /water mixture (z = 0.9-1) on a vertical flat plate heat exchanger in a range of mass flux (7.5-15 kg/m(2) s)| heat flux (15- 23 kW/m(2))| and pressure (0.7-0.9 MPa). The result shows that in the case of ammonia /water mixture| the local heat transfer coefficients increase with an increase of mass flux and composition of ammonia| and decrease with an increase of heat flux. 11891,2011,2,4,Characteristics and Changes of Extreme Precipitation in the Yellow-Huaihe and Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers Basins| China,Many works suggest that the intensity of extreme precipitation might be changing under the background of global warming. Because of the importance of extreme precipitation in the Yellow-Huaihe and Yangtze-Huaihe River basins of China and to compare the spatial difference| the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) function is used to fit the daily precipitation series in these basins and an estimate of the extreme precipitation spatial distribution is presented. At the same time| its long-term trends are estimated for the period between 1951 and 2004 by using a generalized linear model (GLM)| which is based on GPD. High quality daily precipitation data from 215 observation stations over the area are used in this study. The statistical significance of the trend fields is tested with a Monte Carlo experiment based on a two-dimensional Hurst coefficient| H(2). The spatial distribution of the shape parameter of GPD indicates that the upper reaches of the Huaihe River (HuR) basin have the largest probability of extreme rainfall events| which is consistent with most historical flood records in this region. Spatial variations in extreme precipitation trends are found and show significant positive trends in the upper reaches of Poyang Lake in the Yangtze River (YaR) basin and a significant negative trend in the mid-to lower reaches of the Yellow River (YeR) and Haihe River (HaR) basins. The trends in the HuR basin and the lower reaches of Poyang Lake in the YaR basin are nearly neutral. All trend fields are significant at the 5% level of significance from the Monte Carlo experiments. 3184,2011,5,4,Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day,Using meteorological observations| proxies of precipitation and temperature| and climate simulation outputs| we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day| the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years| the EASM circulation and precipitation| indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans| had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale| the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years| the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker| the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward| with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore| there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s| precipitation had a pattern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought| with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP| there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover| the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years| although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased| the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years| the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance. 11958,2011,2,3,Characterization Factors for Water Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Based on Freshwater Fish Species Extinction,Human-induced changes in water consumption and global warming are likely to reduce the species richness of freshwater ecosystems. So far| these impacts have not been addressed in the context of life cycle assessment (LCA). Here| we derived characterization factors for water consumption and global warming based on freshwater fish species loss. Calculation of characterization factors for potential freshwater fish losses from water consumption were estimated using a generic species-river discharge curve for 214 global river basins. We also derived characterization factors for potential freshwater fish species losses per unit of greenhouse gas emission. Based on five global climate scenarios| characterization factors for 63 greenhouse gas emissions were calculated. Depending on the river considered| characterization factors for water consumption can differ up to 3 orders of magnitude. Characterization factors for greenhouse gas emissions can vary up to 5 orders of magnitude| depending on the atmospheric residence time and radiative forcing efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions. An emission of 1 ton of CO(2) is expected to cause the same impact on potential fish species disappearance as the water consumption of 10-1000 m(3)| depending on the river basin considered. Our results make it possible to compare the impact of water consumption with greenhouse gas emissions. 3198,2011,3,2,Characterization of a limestone in a batch fluidized bed reactor for sulfur retention under oxy-fuel operating conditions,CO(2) and SO(2) are some of the main polluting gases emitted into atmosphere in combustion processes using fossil fuel for energy production. The former is one of the major contributors to build-up the greenhouse effect implicated in global climate change and the latter produces acid rain. Oxy-fuel combustion is a technology| which consists in burning the fuel with a mix of pure O(2) and recirculated CO(2). With this technology the CO(2) concentration in the flue gas may be enriched up to 95%| becoming possible an easy CO(2) recovery. In addition| oxy-fuel combustion in fluidized beds allows in situ desulfurization of combustion gases by supplying calcium based sorbent. In this work| the effect of the principal operation variables affecting the sulfation reaction rate in fluidized bed reactors (temperature. CO(2) partial pressure| SO(2) concentration and particle size) under typical oxy-fuel combustion conditions have been analyzed in a batch fluidized bed reactor using a limestone as sorbent. It has been observed that sulfur retention can be carried out by direct sulfation of the CaCO(3) or by sulfation of the CaO (indirect sulfation) formed by CaCO(3) calcination. Direct sulfation and indirect sulfation operating conditions depended on the temperature and CO(2) partial pressure. The rate of direct sulfation rose with temperature and the rate of indirect sulfation for long reaction times decreased with temperature. An increase in the CO(2) partial pressure had a negative influence on the sulfation conversion reached by the limestone due to a higher temperature was needed to work in conditions of indirect sulfation. Thus| it is expected that the optimum temperature for sulfur retention in oxy-fuel combustion in fluidized bed reactors be about 925-950 degrees C. Sulfation reaction rate rose with decreasing sorbent particle size and increasing SO(2) concentration. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11798,2011,2,4,Characterizing Water Use Efficiency and Water Deficit Responses in Apple (Malus Xdomestica Borkh. and Malus sieversii Ledeb.) M. Roem.,Reduced availability of water for agricultural use has been forecast for much of the planet as a result of global warming and greater urban demand for water in large metropolitan areas. Strategic improvement of water use efficiency (WUE) and drought tolerance in perennial crops| like fruit trees| could reduce water use without compromising yield or quality. We studied water use in apple trees using 'Royal Gala'| a relatively water use-efficient cultivar| as a standard. To examine whether genes useful for improving WUE are represented in a wild relative genetically close to M. xdomestica| we surveyed Malus sieversii for traits associated with WUE and drought resistance using material collected from xeric sites in Kazakhstan. This collection has been maintained in Geneva| NY| and surveyed for various phenotypes and has been genetically characterized using simple sequence repeats (SSRs). These data suggest that most of the diversity in this population is contained within a subpopulation of 34 individuals. Analysis of this subpopulation for morphological traits traditionally associated with WUE or drought resistance| e.g.| leaf size and stomata size and arrangement| indicated that these traits were not substantially different. These results imply that some of the genetic diversity may be associated with changes in the biochemistry| uptake| and/or transport of water| carbon| or oxygen that have allowed these trees to survive in water-limited environments. Furthermore| genes responding to drought treatment were isolated from 'Royal Gala' and categorized according to the biological processes with which they are associated. A large fraction of upregulated genes from roots were identified as stress-responsive| whereas genes from leaves were for the most part associated with photosynthesis. We plan to examine expression of these genes in the M. sieversii population during water deficit in future studies to compare their patterns of expression with 'Royal Gala'. 11999,2011,4,4,Chemical characterization of nanometer-sized elemental carbon particles emitted from diesel vehicles,In order to obtain the exact chemical structure and further discuss the global warming effect of elemental carbon (EC) particles| the morphology and the chemical structure of EC particles emitted from diesel vehicles were first investigated in detail using scan electron microscopy equipped with an energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer (SEM-EDX)| matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF-MS)| Fourier Transformation Infrared (FT-IR) spectrum and (13)C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectrum in this study. The SEM-EDX results showed that EC particles emitted from diesel bus are 50 nm spherical particles with smooth surface and an O/C ratio (mass ratio) of 0.07 +/- 0.01. The 50 nm EC particles were further deduced to be an aggregate of new fullerene C(36)(OH)(2) according to the results of MALDI-TOF-MS| FT-IR and (13)C NMR. Fullerenes smaller than (60)C were considered to be unstable since they cannot fulfill the so-called isolated pentagon rule. So far| most of our knowledge regarding small fullerenes comes from gas-phase experiments and theoretical investigations| the production and separation of small fullerene solids in the macroscopic quantity has been reported. The present report is the first discovery of C(36)(OH)(2)-based solid. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11931,2011,2,4,Chickpea evolution has selected for contrasting phenological mechanisms among different habitats,Arguably the most important adaptive criterion in annual crops is appropriate phenology that minimizes exposure to climatic stresses and maximizes productivity in target environments. To date this has been achieved empirically by selecting among diverse genotypes in target locations. This approach is likely to become inadequate with pending climate change because selection is imposed on the outcome (flowering time) rather than the underlying mechanism (i.e. responses to daylength| ambient or vernalizing temperatures). In contrast to the cereals| in legumes the interaction between phenological mechanisms and environmental selection pressure is largely unknown. This paper addresses this shortcoming through photothermal modelling of chickpea germplasm from the world's key production areas using a meta-analysis of multi-environment trials located from 49A degrees A N to 35A degrees A S. Germplasm origin had significant effects on temperature and daylength responsiveness| the former strongly correlated to vegetative phase temperatures at the collection or development site (r = 0.8). Accordingly| temperature responses increase from winter- to spring-sown Mediterranean and Australian material| and then to north| central & southern India. Germplasm origin also affects the relationship between photoperiod and temperature response. In Eastern Mediterranean material a strong negative relationship (r = -0.77) enables temperature insensitive genotypes to compensate through a strong photoperiod response. Clearly| chickpea evolution has selected for different phenological mechanisms across the habitat range. Given that under the anticipated global warming temperature sensitive cultivars will flower relatively earlier than those responding largely to photoperiod| it is important to exploit this diversity in developing better-adapted genotypes for future cropping environments. 11946,2011,3,3,Chloroform decreases rumen methanogenesis and methanogen populations without altering rumen function in cattle,Anthropogenic CH(4) emissions are widely recognised as a world wide problem due to their global warming potential and because they represent a loss of dietary energy to ruminants. Few recent studies have examined medium or long term effects of methanogen inhibitors on rumen functional parameters and development of resistance to them. The aim of our study was to investigate medium term effects of a potent methanogen inhibitor on methanogen populations using molecular techniques and rumen function. Six rumen fistulated cows were divided into two groups and allocated to control and chloroform treatment and fed at a fixed rate of 8.4 kg dry matter (DM)/cow/d. After 7 d of acclimatization. treatment cows were dosed daily with 1.5 ml of chloroform in 30 ml of sunflower oil for 42 d| while control cows only received sunflower oil. Key indicators of rumen function monitored included rumen pH| rumen fill| apparent feed digestibility| apparent rumen digesta retention time| total protozoa numbers| and volatile fatty acid (VFA) and NH(3) concentrations. Methane emissions were monitored using the SF(6) tracer technique| and methanogens using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and four clone libraries. Methanogens and acetogens were monitored in a single cow by most probable number culturing methods. Chloroform| a known inhibitor of methanogenesis| resulted in an immediate and dramatic decrease in CH(4) emissions and methanogen numbers| with the effect being most pronounced 1 wk after the start of the treatment. Thereafter| CH(4) emissions increased slowly| reaching 62% of pre-treatment levels by d 42. The effect on CH(4) emissions was reflected by a near complete disappearance of DGGE bands associated with methanogens in treated cows. This response was particularly obvious for Methanobrevibacter species. There were no effects of chloroform on apparent rumen digesta retention time| apparent feed digestibility| pH. NH(3) or rumen fill. Total protozoa numbers tended to increase during the study in both groups. Total VFA concentrations did not change with chloroform treatment| but the acetate:propionate ratio during the period of dosing was lower (P<0.01) for treated cows (1.9) in the middle of the study (d 23) than in the control cows (2.7)| but did not differ after treatment ceased at d 53. Despite profound effects of chloroform on CH(4) emissions and methanogens| chloroform did not appear to alter basic rumen function. Whether a reduction in CH(4) loss improves feed conversion efficiency requires further research using substances which have a sustained anti-methanogenic effect. This article is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture - Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions| Guest Edited by T.A. McAllister| Section Guest Editors; K.A. Beauchemin| X. Hao| S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology| P.H. Robinson. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
12610,2011,5,4,Chronological and ecological information on Late-glacial and early Holocene reindeer from northwest Europe using radiocarbon ((14)C) and stable isotope ((13)C| (15)N) analysis of bone collagen: Case study in southwestern Germany,The Late-glacial and early Holocene periods are characterized by significant climatic and environmental changes that result in a global warming. In this context| typical glacial species such as reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) were extirpated from the southern regions of western Europe following different timing according to the geographical location. A new direct radiocarbon date was performed on a reindeer metatarsus from the Mesolithic site of Rottenburg-Siebenlinden in the Swabian Jura. The result (9225 +/- 35 BP: 10|270-10|500 cal BP) confirmed the survival of this species during the early Holocene in southwestern (SW) Germany. Collagen (13)C and (15)N abundances (delta(13)C(coll) and delta(15)N(coll)) were measured on this Holocene reindeer and on Late-glacial reindeer from Magdalenian sites - Petersfels| Schussenquelle| Felsstalle and Kesslerloch - of the same region to investigate their diet and environment. During the first part of the Late-glacial (ca. 16.6-14 ka cal BP)| the delta(13)C(coll) values of the SW Germany reindeer were slightly lower than those found in reindeer from Stellmoor and Meiendorf sites in northern Germany| probably as a result of lower lichen consumption and higher humidity. Lower delta(15)N(coll) values in SW Germany reindeer compared to southwestern France could be linked to less advanced soil maturation as the inheritance of higher permafrost intensity linked to harsher climatic conditions during the Late-Glacial Maximum. In SW Germany| the early Holocene reindeer had a higher delta(15)N(coll) value (4%) than those of its late-glacial counterparts (1.2-3.3 parts per thousand)| which would reflect the expected increase in (15)N abundances of soils and plants with higher temperature. However| relatively high delta(15)N values (ca. 4-5 parts per thousand) were also found in the reindeer of southwestern England as early as during the Younger Dryas| the last cold stadial preceding the early Holocene. In contrast| northern and western Germany reindeer exhibited increasing delta(13)C(coll) values but stable delta(15)N(coll) values during the Younger Dryas compared to the previous Bolling/Allerod interstadial. This could indicate a slower response in (15)N(coll) than in (13)C(coll) abundances of ancient reindeer to climatic changes. Finally| the reindeer of southern England and SW Germany survived the Younger Dryas/early Holocene transition in a relatively open landscape as confirmed by the delta(13)C(coll) values measured on coeval deer. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 3261,2011,2,4,Classification of Climate-Change-Induced Stresses on Biological Diversity,Conservation actions need to account for and be adapted to address changes that will occur under global climate change. The identification of stresses on biological diversity (as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity) is key in the process of adaptive conservation management. We considered any impact of climate change on biological diversity a stress because such an effect represents a change (negative or positive) in key ecological attributes of an ecosystem or parts of it. We applied a systemic approach and a hierarchical framework in a comprehensive classification of stresses to biological diversity that are caused directly by global climate change. Through analyses of 20 conservation sites in 7 countries and a review of the literature| we identified climate-change-induced stresses. We grouped the identified stresses according to 3 levels of biological diversity: stresses that affect individuals and populations| stresses that affect biological communities| and stresses that affect ecosystem structure and function. For each stress category| we differentiated 3 hierarchical levels of stress: stress class (thematic grouping with the coarsest resolution| 8); general stresses (thematic groups of specific stresses| 21); and specific stresses (most detailed definition of stresses| 90). We also compiled an overview of effects of climate change on ecosystem services using the categories of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and 2 additional categories. Our classification may be used to identify key climate-change-related stresses to biological diversity and may assist in the development of appropriate conservation strategies. The classification is in list format| but it accounts for relations among climate-change-induced stresses. 11617,2011,2,4,Clay mineral evolution along a soil chronosequence in an Alpine proglacial area,As a consequence of global warming| additional areas will become ice-free and subject to weathering and soil formation. The most evident soil changes in the Alps will occur in proglacial areas where young soils will continuously develop due to glacier retreat. Little is known about the initial stages of weathering and soil formation| i.e. during the first decades of soil genesis. In this study| we investigated clay minerals formation during a time span 0-150 years in the proglacial area of Morteratsch (Swiss Alps). The soils developed on granitic till and were Lithic Leptosols. Mineralogical measurements of the clay (<2 mu m) and fine silt fraction (2-32 mu m) were carried out using XRD (X-ray Diffraction) and DRIFT (Diffuse Reflectance Infrared Fourier Transform). Fast formation and transformation mechanisms were measured in the clay fraction. The decreasing proportion of trioctahedral phases with time confirmed active chemical weathering. Since the start of soil formation| smectite was actively formed. Some smectite (low charge) and vermiculite (high charge) was however already present in the parent material. Main source of smectite formation was biotite| hornblende and probably plagioclase. Furthermore| irregularly and regularly interstratified clay minerals (mica-HIV or mica-vermiculite) were formed immediately after the start of moraine exposure to weathering. In addition| hydroxy-interlayered smectite (HIS) as a transitory weathering product from mica to smectite was detected. Furthermore| since the start of soil evolution| kaolinite was progressively formed. In the silt fraction| only little changes could be detected: i.e. some formation of an interstratified mica-HIV or mica-vermiculite phase. The detected clay mineral formation and transformation mechanisms within this short time span confirmed the high reactivity of freshly exposed sediments| even in a cryic environment. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12256,2011,2,4,Climate and conflicts: the security risks of global warming,Since the publication of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007| the securitization of global warming has reached a new level. Numerous public statements and a growing research literature have discussed the potential security risks and conflicts associated with climate change. This article provides an overview of this debate and introduces an assessment framework of climate stress| human security and societal impacts. Key fields of conflict will be addressed| including water stress| land use and food security| natural disasters and environmental migration. A few regional hot spots of climate security will be discussed| such as land-use conflicts in Northern Africa; floods| sea-level rise and human security in Southern Asia; glacier melting and water insecurity in Central Asia and Latin America; water conflicts in the Middle East; climate security in the Mediterranean; and the potential impact on rich countries. Finally| concepts and strategies will be considered to minimize the security risks and move from conflict to cooperation in climate policy. 12219,2011,3,3,Climate and Health Relevant Emissions from in-Use Indian Three-Wheelers Fueled by Natural Gas and Gasoline,Auto-rickshaws in India use different fuels and engine technologies| with varying emissions and implications for air quality and climate change. Chassis dynamometer emission testing was conducted on 30 in use auto-rickshaws to quantify the impact of switching from gasoline to compressed natural gas (CNG) in spark-ignition engines. Thirteen test vehicles had two stoke CNG engines (CNG-2S) and 17 had four-stroke CNG engines (CNG-4S)| of which 11 were dual-fuel and operable on a back-up gasoline (petrol) system (PET-4S). Fuel-based emission factors were determined for gaseous pollutants (CO(2)| CH(4)| NO(x)| THC| and CO) and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)). Intervehicle variability was high| and for most pollutants there was no significant difference (95% confidence level) between "old" (1998-2001) and "new" (2007-2009) age-groups within a given fuel-technology class. Mean fuel-based PM(2.5) emission factor (mean (95% confidence interval)) for CNG-2S (14.2 g kg(-1) (6.2-26.7)) was almost 30 times higher than for CNG-4S (0.5 g kg(-1) (0.3-0.9)) and 12 times higher than for PET-4S (1.2 g kg(-1) (0.8-1.7)). Global warming commitment associated with emissions from CNG-2S was more than twice that from CNG-4S or PET-4S| due mostly to CH(4) emissions. Comprehensive measurements and data should drive policy interventions rathar than assumption about the impacts of clean fuels. 12347,2011,2,4,Climate and population density drive changes in cod body size throughout a century on the Norwegian coast,Understanding how populations respond to changes in climate requires long-term| high-quality datasets| which are rare for marine systems. We estimated the effects of climate warming on cod lengths and length variability using a unique 91-y time series of more than 100|000 individual juvenile cod lengths from surveys that began in 1919 along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Using linear mixed-effects models| we accounted for spatial population structure and the nested structure of the survey data to reveal opposite effects of spring and summer warming on juvenile cod lengths. Warm summer temperatures in the coastal Skagerrak have limited juvenile growth. In contrast| warmer springs have resulted in larger juvenile cod| with less variation in lengths within a cohort| possibly because of a temperature-driven contraction in the spring spawning period. A density-dependent reduction in length was evident only at the highest population densities in the time series| which have rarely been observed in the last decade. If temperatures rise because of global warming| nonlinearities in the opposing temperature effects suggest that negative effects of warmer summers will increasingly outweigh positive effects of warmer springs| and the coastal Skagerrak will become ill-suited for Atlantic cod. 3170,2011,2,4,Climate and vegetation determine soil organic matter status in an alpine inner-tropical soil catena in the Fan Si Pan Mountain| Vietnam,High mountain ecosystems are generally considered to be particularly sensitive to global climate change. Studies of pedogenesis associated with altitudinal variation| vegetation type and soil carbon content on the same type of parent rock are very limited in inter-tropical mountain areas. Therefore the altitudinal variation of soil pedogenesis through 9 selected profiles from the altitude of 1340 m to 3143 mast| the summit of the Fan Si Pan Mountain| in the north of Vietnam was examined. Fan Si Pan Mountain is composed of a homogenous alkaline granite rock and is the highest point of the Inter-tropical Continental Asia. The Soil Organic Matter properties (C| N| delta(13)C and delta(15)N contents) of the different grain-size fractions of the topsoil of 4 selected profiles corresponding to different ecosystems were also examined. Three zones of different soil forming processes were present: Acrisols and Alisols at lower altitudes in sub montane forest| Podzols formed in montane and upper montane forest while Umbrisols formed at high altitude where the forest vegetation had given way to a shrubby vegetation or a steppe composed of dwarfed bamboo. With altitude| soils become sandier| have higher concentration of SiO(2) and are lower in Al(2)O(3). The selective Fe and Al oxalate (Fe(o) and Al(o)) and pyrophosphate (Few and Alp) extracts show a clear discrepancy between Acrisols or Umbrisols with no clear variation with soil depth and Podzols with high enrichment in their Bs horizon. The SOM status is highly dependent of the organic matter input by the vegetation. In Acrisols| the SOC is linked to the fine fraction within the soil profile with rapid turnover and low C/N values. Podzols are formed by the accumulation on soil surface of OM enriched in the coarse fraction with depleted delta(15)N and high C/N values. The organic matter input is exogenic and probably seasonal from leaves forming the surface litter while in Acrisols or Umbrisols the SOC is mainly linked to the fine fraction| and with constant delta(15)N values at depth. In Umbrisols| the SOC origin seems to be linked with endogenic inputs deep in the soil profile mostly produced by the decay of bamboo roots. In this tropical mountainous soil catena| the soil carbon mineralization depends not only on temperature and organo-metallic complexes that stabilize the non labile carbon pool but also is controlled by the pedogenetic process| which is linked with the vegetal ecosystem change with altitude. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12051,2011,2,3,Climate Change Affects Winter Chill for Temperate Fruit and Nut Trees,Background: Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields. Methodology/Principal Findings: We estimated winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios (mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models [GCMs]; 3 greenhouse gas emissions [GHG] scenarios). For 4|293 weather stations around the world and GCM projections| Safe Winter Chill (SWC)| the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of all years| was estimated for all scenarios using the "Dynamic Model" and interpolated globally. We found that SWC ranged between 0 and about 170 Chill Portions (CP) for all climate scenarios| but that the global distribution varied across scenarios. Warm regions are likely to experience severe reductions in available winter chill| potentially threatening production there. In contrast| SWC in most temperate growing regions is likely to remain relatively unchanged| and cold regions may even see an increase in SWC. Climate change impacts on SWC differed quantitatively among GCMs and GHG scenarios| with the highest GHG leading to losses up to 40 CP in warm regions| compared to 20 CP for the lowest GHG. Conclusions/Significance: The extent of projected changes in winter chill in many major growing regions of fruits and nuts indicates that growers of these commodities will likely experience problems in the future. Mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce the impacts| however| adaption to changes will have to occur. To better prepare for likely impacts of climate change| efforts should be undertaken to breed tree cultivars for lower chilling requirements| to develop tools to cope with insufficient winter chill| and to better understand the temperature responses of tree crops. 12343,2011,2,4,Climate change and atopic dermatitis,The prevalence of atopic diseases seems to be increasing worldwide. Climate change induced by global warming has been reported to increase allergic respiratory diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis (AR)| and appears to aggravate atopic dermatitis (AD). Increasing air pollution and pollen associated with climate change| acting individually or synergistically| may have harmful effects on the prevalence and symptoms of AD| because they can easily penetrate the damaged epithelium of AD and sensitize patients. However| the direct scientific evidence supporting the linear correlation between climate change and increase of AD is quite limited compared to that available for respiratory allergic diseases. Large-scale population studies are necessary to observe the effects of climate change on AD in a more detailed and objective way. In terms of allergic march| climate change may aggravate and increase AD and lead to more increases in asthma and AR in the long run 3320,2011,3,3,Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation,Background: Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe| far reaching| and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry| commerce| and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals| if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods: In 2008| we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results: Of 771 individuals surveyed| 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring| and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility)| Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4 - 4.0)| endanger their life (perceived severity)| OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1)| or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change| OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption| either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1) or plan| OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 - 3.2) for their household| but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability| either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95% CI: 1.0 - 2.2). Conclusions: Motivation for voluntary mitigation is mostly dependent on perceived susceptibility to threats and severity of climate change or climate variability impacts| whereas adaptation is largely dependent on the availability of information relevant to climate change. Thus| the climate change discourse could be framed from a health perspective to motivate behaviour change. 11554,2011,2,4,Climate change and community disassembly: impacts of warming on tropical and temperate montane community structure,Both tropical and temperate species are responding to global warming through range shifts| but our understanding of the consequences of these shifts for whole communities is limited. Here| we use current elevational range data for six taxonomic groups spanning 90 degrees in latitude to examine the potential impacts of climate-driven range shifts on community change| or disassembly| across latitude. Elevational ranges are smaller at low latitudes for most groups and| as a consequence| tropical communities appear to be more sensitive to temperature increases compared with temperate communities. Under site-specific temperature projections| we generally found greater community disassembly in tropical compared with temperate communities| although this varied by dispersal assumptions. Mountain height can impact the amount of community disassembly| with greater change occurring on smaller mountains. Finally| projected community disassembly was higher for ectotherms than endotherms| although the variation among ectotherms was greater than the variation separating endotherms and ectotherms. 3231,2011,2,4,Climate change and disease: bleaching of a chemically defended seaweed,Disease is emerging as an important impact of global climate change| due to the effects of environmental change on host organisms and their pathogens. Climate-mediated disease can have severe consequences in natural systems| particularly when ecosystem engineers| such as habitat-formers or top predators are affected| as any impacts can cascade throughout entire food webs. In temperate marine ecosystems| seaweeds are the dominant habitat-formers on rocky reefs. We investigated a putative bleaching disease affecting Delisea pulchra| a chemically defended seaweed that occurs within a global warming 'hot-spot' and assessed how patterns of this phenomenon were influenced by ocean temperature| solar radiation| algal chemical defences and microbial pathogens. Warmer waters were consistently and positively correlated with higher frequencies of bleaching in seaweed populations| but patterns of bleaching were not consistently influenced by light levels. Bleached thalli had low levels of antibacterial chemical defences relative to healthy conspecifics and this was observed across entire thalli of partially bleached algae. Microbial communities associated with bleached algae were distinct from those on the surfaces of healthy seaweeds. Direct testing of the importance of algal chemical defences| done here for the first time in the field| demonstrated that they protected the seaweed from bleaching. Treatment of algal thalli with antibiotics reduced the severity of bleaching in experimental algae| especially at high water temperatures. These results indicate that bleaching in D. pulchra is the result of temperature-mediated bacterial infections and highlight the potential for warming to influence disease dynamics by stressing hosts. Understanding the complex ways in which global change may affect important organisms such as habitat-forming seaweeds| is essential for the management and conservation of natural resources. 12577,2011,5,4,Climate Change and Elevated Extinction Rates of Reptiles from Mediterranean Islands,Recent climate change has caused the distributions of many species to shift poleward| yet few empirical studies have addressed which species will be vulnerable to longer-term climate changes. To investigate past consequences of climate change| we calculated the population extinction rates of 35 reptile species from 87 Greek land-bridge islands in the Mediterranean that occurred over the past 16|000 years. Population extinction rates were higher for those species that today have more northern distributions. We further found that northern species requiring cool| mesic habitats had less available suitable habitat among islands| implicating loss of suitable habitat in their elevated extinction rates. These extinctions occurred in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation| with islands shrinking and separating as sea levels rose. Thus| the circumstances faced by reptiles on the islands are similar to challenges for numerous species today that must cope with a changing climate while living in an increasingly human-fragmented landscape. Our island-biogeographical approach to investigating historical population extinctions gives insight into the long-term patterns of species responses to climate change. 12855,2011,2,2,Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations,Background: In 2007| the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors| climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed specifically considering their exposure and sensitivity to long range transported contaminants. Methods: Considering that the different parts of pregnancy are particularly sensitive time periods for the effects of environmental exposure| this review focuses on the impacts on maternal and newborn health. Environmental stressors known to affects human health and how these will change with the predicted climate change are addressed. Air pollution and food security are crucial issues for the pregnant population in a changing climate| especially indoor climate and food security in Arctic areas. Results: The total number of environmental factors is today responsible for a large number of the global deaths| especially in young children. Climate change will most likely lead to an increase in this number. Exposure to the different environmental stressors especially air pollution will in most parts of the world increase with climate change| even though some areas might face lower exposure. Populations at risk today are believed to be most heavily affected. As for the persistent organic pollutants a warming climate leads to a remobilisation and a possible increase in food chain exposure in the Arctic and thus increased risk for Arctic populations. This is especially the case for mercury. The perspective for the next generations will be closely connected to the expected temperature changes; changes in housing conditions; changes in exposure patterns; predicted increased exposure to Mercury because of increased emissions and increased biological availability. Conclusions: A number of environmental stressors are predicted to increase with climate change and increasingly affecting human health. Efforts should be put on reducing risk for the next generation| thus global politics and research effort should focus on maternal and newborn health.
12084,2011,2,4,Climate change and fish culture in Patagonia: present situation and perspectives,Temperature increment is one of the most visible aspects of climate change. Reservoirs in northern Patagonia are the main location for rainbow trout cage aquaculture activities in Argentina and here| surface water temperature shows an increment that despite leading towards better growth rates| also provokes lack of ovulation| atresia and a partial or total absence of spawning during the breeding season. During the early life history| low survival rates at hatching and first feeding are also observed. The increase in market size (> 2 kg) has changed management practices| minimizing the difference between brood stock and individuals destined for consumption. Thus| the present situation differs deeply from carrying capacities forecasted few years ago and this analysis attempts to contribute to management policies including the idea of adaptation to climate change in the making of decisions. 12342,2011,2,2,Climate change and human health,Climactic changes| especially global warming| are potentially the largest global threat to human health and the source of the greatest number of cases of disease. If current emissions and land use trends continue unchecked| future generations will face more serious conditions| including injury| disease| and death related to natural disasters and heat waves| higher rates of climate-related infections| widespread malnutrition| and more allergy and air pollution-related morbidity and mortality. This review highlights the relationship between global climate changes and human health and provides some suggestions for improvement. According to the Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in 2007| global warming is caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The most important GHG is carbon dioxide (CO(2))| which is released by the burning of fossil fuels and| to a lesser extent| by land use practices| followed by nitrous oxide and methane. IPCC predicts that global temperatures will rise 1.8 degrees C-4.0 degrees C by 2099. According to the report| we can expect a significant rise in sea levels| massive species extinctions| changes in storm and drought cycles| altered ocean circulation| and redistribution of vegetation after crossing the "tipping point" of global warming. Human health will be adversely affected by the accelerating climate change. This review stimulates health care providers to provide quality care to susceptible individuals confronting new threats from climactic changes| as well as to work toward a mitigation of the drivers of climate change at the individual| community| and policy levels as part of a long-term commitment to protecting public health. 3478,2011,2,4,Climate change and its effect on agriculture water requirement in Khuzestan plain| Iran,Global climate change is one of important issues interesting to water resources experts in recent decades. Regarding global climate change| temperature and precipitation forecasting can have significant role in decision making and optimum use of water resources. Carried studies in Iran| like other regions of world| show increasing pattern in annual temperature. The present study was designed to survey temperature increase in Khuzestan plain that is located in the southwest of Iran and its effect on potential evapotranspiration and water uses in agriculture. The effect of temperature increase on agriculture water uses in Khuzestan plain was carried out based on analysis of annual temperature time series and theoretical base of evapotranspiration and crop water requirement. Study area includes vast part of Khuzestan province that has 16 meteorological stations in Behbahan| Ahvaz| Dezful and Karkheh regions. Results of analysis of annual temperature time series showed 3.7 degrees C increase in temperature for a 100-year period. Sensitive analysis of water requirement model showed 14| 8|4 and 2.7% change in potential evapotranspiration per 1% change in temperature| wind speed| sun hours and relative humidity parameters| respectively. Increasing rate of potential evapotranspiration due to temperature increase was 2.04| 2.01| 1.52 and 2.23 mm/year in Behbahan| Ahvaz| Dezful and Karkheh regions| respectively. Also| the increasing rate of wheat water requirement due to temperature increase was 723| 508| 339 and 488 (m(3)/ha) in study regions during the next 50 years.
3240,2011,3,4,Climate change and optimal energy technology R&D policy,Public policy response to global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty. Theoretical work has shown that explicitly accounting for uncertainty and learning in climate change can have a large impact on optimal policy| especially technology policy. However| theory also shows that the specific impacts of uncertainty are ambiguous. In this paper| we provide a framework that combines economics and decision analysis to implement probabilistic data on energy technology research and development (R&D) policy in response to global climate change. We find that| given a budget constraint| the composition of the optimal R&D portfolio is highly diversified and robust to risk in climate damages. The overall optimal investment into technical change| however| does depend (in a non-monotonic way) on the risk in climate damages. Finally| we show that in order to properly value R&D| abatement must be included as a recourse decision. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11705,2011,2,2,Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Impact On Agriculture Along Andhra Pradesh Coast-A Geomatics Analysis,Climate change due to anthropogenic forcing through escalating greenhouse gas emissions and destruction of carbon sinks by deforestation is leading to floods and droughts affecting agriculture production. Global warming induces steric as well as eustatic rise in sea-level| by thermal expansion and addition of ice-melt water| respectively. Although the IPCC (2007) estimated a maximum possible sea-level rise of about 59 cm| more recent estimates show a global average rise of a parts per thousand yen1 m by the 2100 AD. The low-lying coastal zones are more vulnerable to rising sea levels as they face submergence or saltwater intrusion which affects the agriculture activities. Geomatics-based models on the possible impact of the predicted sea-level rise on coastal agriculture are necessary to initiate appropriate mitigation plans. The present study is an attempt in this direction taking the Andhra Pradesh (AP) coast as an example. The land use / land cover of the AP coast was mapped through the interpretation of IRS-P6 LISS III imagery from 2008. SRTM digital elevation models coupled with landform evidences have been used to interpolate contours at 0.5 m interval| although highly approximate| for the entire coastal region. If the sea level rises by 1.0 m| about 4040 km(2) area including the present intertidal wetlands as well as the land between the present and future high tide lines would be affected along the entire 1030-km-long AP coast displacing about 1.67 million inhabitants and their economic activities| in about 351 revenue villages. The low-lying Krishna-Godavari delta region in the central part of the AP coast would be the worst affected zone as 2205 km(2) of its area including about 1593 km(2) under various types of agricultural activities is lying within the future high tide limit of 2.5 m elevation. 12353,2011,2,4,Climate change and the future distributions of aquatic macrophytes across boreal catchments,Aim Aquatic-terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change| and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have severe ecological consequences for freshwater| wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Our aim was to uncover future changes in boreal emergent aquatic macrophyte zones by modelling the occurrence and percentage cover of emergent aquatic vegetation under different climate scenarios in Finland by the 2050s. Location Finland| northern Europe. Methods Data derived from different GIS sources were used to estimate future emergent aquatic macrophyte distributions in all catchments in Finland (848 in total). We used generalized additive models (GAM) with a full stepwise selection algorithm and Akaike information criterion to explore the main environmental determinates (climate and geomorphology) of emergent aquatic macrophyte distributions| which were derived from the national subclass of CORINE land-cover classification. The accuracy of the distribution models (GAMs) was cross-validated| using percentage of explained deviance and the area under the curve derived from the receiver-operating characteristic plots. Results Our results indicated that emergent aquatic macrophytes will expand their distributions northwards from the current catchments and percentage cover will increase in all of the catchments in all climate scenarios. Growing degree-days was the primary determinant affecting distributions of emergent aquatic macrophytes. Inclusion of geomorphological variables clearly improved model performance in both model exercises compared with pure climate variables. Main conclusions Emergent aquatic macrophyte distributions will expand due to climate change. Many emergent aquatic plant species have already expanded their distributions during the past decades| and this process will continue in the years 2051-80. Emergent aquatic macrophytes pose an increasing overgrowth risk for sensitive macrophyte species in boreal freshwater ecosystems| which should be acknowledged in management and conservation actions. We conclude that predictions based on GIS data can provide useful 'first-filter' estimates of changes in aquatic-terrestrial ecotones. 3427,2011,2,3,Climate change and the outdoor regional living plant collections: an example from mainland Portugal,Climate change threatens not only plant species occurring naturally| but also impacts on regional living plant collections| which play an important role in ex situ conservation strategies. In the last few years| several global circulation models have been used to predict different global climate change scenarios. Due to their coarse resolutions| and while more detailed regional approaches are not available| downscaling techniques have been proposed| as a very simple first approach to increase detail. We analysed seven sites on mainland Portugal with potential for species conservation (four botanic gardens and three universities)| in the light of downscaled climate change scenarios| using an environmental envelope approach and a predefined bioclimatic neighbourhood for each site. Thresholds for the bioclimatic neighbourhood were based on Rivas-Martinez's Bioclimatic Classification of the Earth. For each site| the expected geographical shift of its original bioclimatic neighbourhood (1950-2000) was mapped for 2020| 2050 and 2080. Analysing those shifts enabled us to delineate knowledge-transfer paths between sites| according to the analysed scenarios. We concluded that| according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 scenario| all considered sites will be outside the predefined bioclimatic neighbourhood by 2080| while according to the B2 scenario all of them will be inside that neighbourhood| although sometimes marginally so. Therefore| the implementation of global sustainability measures as considered in the B2 scenario family can be of great importance in order to delay significantly the impacts of climate change| giving extra time for the adaptation of the outdoor regional living plant collections. 12316,2011,3,3,Climate change diffusion: While the world tips| business schools lag,The influence of business schools on business practitioners is considerable. An important proportion of corporate leaders hold a degree in business administration or an MBA| if not both. In the context of climate change| this influence matters: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a selection of global 500 companies approximate that of the USA and the EU15 combined. Not only do corporations have a significant climate footprint| but the impact of climate change on the business landscape is already noticeable. Yet| meeting the managerial challenges that climate change brings requires knowledge only moderately addressed in business education and scholarship today. Climate change tends to be discussed in electives - hence reaching only a fraction of students - and tends to be treated alongside a myriad of other corporate social responsibility issues. Moreover| from 1992 to 2008| only seven articles with titles containing climate change or global warming were published in the top-30 peer-reviewed management journals (this paper| see also Goodall| 2008). In this paper| by mapping the diffusion of climate change within press media and academic peer-reviewed publications| I argue that understanding the existing lag in business scholarship engagement requires a fundamental understanding of processes that either hinder or lead to the diffusion of new ideas. To do so| I present a simple yet novel approach for the quantification of climate change or global warming (CCorGW) coverage relative to population size. My results on the diffusion of the climate change idea over time show: (a) an overall increase in proportional coverage in all databases (b) tipping points around the late 1980s and circa 2005 and (c) delays in adoption between press categories. I explicate the occurrence of these tipping points as well as the existence of delays by theoretically unifying my analyses with results from previous studies under the umbrella of the diffusion of innovation paradigm. I suggest that the following key factors have contributed in slowing the diffusion within business scholarship: (a) corporate values| beliefs and operational modes (b) social structures and incentives prevailing within academia and finally (b) academia's valued research communication channels. I conclude by elaborating key recommendations to facilitate the diffusion of this idea to business scholars and other influential audiences. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3258,2011,4,4,Climate change drives warming in the Hudson River Estuary| New York (USA),Estuaries may be subject to warming due to global climate change but few studies have considered the drivers or seasonality of warming empirically. We analyzed temperature trends and rates of temperature change over time for the Hudson River estuary using long-term data| mainly from daily measures taken at the Poughkeepsie Water Treatment Facility. This temperature record is among the longest in the world for a river or estuary. The Hudson River has warmed 0.945 degrees C since 1946. Many of the warmest years in the record occurred in the last 16 years. A seasonal analysis of trends indicated significant warming for the months of April through August. The warming of the Hudson is primarily related to increasing air temperature. Increasing freshwater discharge into the estuary has not mitigated the warming trend. 12033,2011,2,4,Climate change features along the Brahmaputra Valley in the past 26 years and possible causes,Through analyzing the changes of averaged temperature and precipitation along the Brahmaputra Valley from 1980 to 2005| and investigating the correlation between atmospheric circulation indices and these changes| the respondence of the Brahmaputra Valley to the global warming had been analyzed in this paper. It is found that the Brahmaputra Valley climate became warmer and wetter from 1980 to 2005| and the change magnitude is higher than that over the whole Tibetan Plateau. Therefore| the respondence of the Brahmaputra valley to the global warming is more evident than that of the whole plateau during the period. The relationship between atmospheric circulation indices and the regional climate change is significant. When North Atlantic Oscillation index is higher in summer| the climate of the Brahmaputra Valley becomes warmer and dryer; vice versa. When South Oscillation index is higher| it becomes warmer and wetter; vice versa.Worthy of note| the results in this study only emphasize some evidence of change in temperature and precipitation over the Brahmaputra Valley during 1980-2005. 3249,2011,2,4,Climate Change Hastens the Conservation Urgency of an Endangered Ungulate,Global climate change appears to be one of the main threats to biodiversity in the near future and is already affecting the distribution of many species. Currently threatened species are a special concern while the extent to which they are sensitive to climate change remains uncertain. Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) is classified as endangered and a conservation focus on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using measures of species range shift| we explored how the distribution of Przewalski's gazelle may be impacted by projected climate change based on a maximum entropy approach. We also evaluated the uncertainty in the projections of the risks arising from climate change. Modeling predicted the Przewalski's gazelle would be sensitive to future climate change. As the time horizon increased| the strength of effects from climate change increased. Even assuming unlimited dispersal capacity of gazelles| a moderate decrease to complete loss of range was projected by 2080 under different thresholds for transforming the probability prediction to presence/absence data. Current localities of gazelles will undergo a decrease in their occurrence probability. Projections of the impacts of climate change were significantly affected by thresholds and general circulation models. This study suggests climate change clearly poses a severe threat and increases the extinction risk to Przewalski's gazelle. Our findings 1) confirm that endangered endemic species is highly vulnerable to climate change and 2) highlight the fact that forecasting impacts of climate change needs an assessment of the uncertainty. It is extremely important that conservation strategies consider the predicted geographical shifts and be planned with full knowledge of the reliability of projected impacts of climate change. 12175,2011,2,3,Climate change impact and risks of concrete infrastructure deterioration,Atmospheric CO(2) is a major cause of reinforcement corrosion in bridges| buildings| wharves| and other concrete infrastructure in Australia| United States| United Kingdom and most other countries. The increase in CO(2) levels associated with global warming will increase the likelihood of carbonation-induced corrosion. Moreover| temperature rises will increase corrosion rates. Clearly| the impact of climate change on existing and new infrastructure is considerable| as corrosion damage is disruptive to society and costly to repair. The paper describes a probabilistic and reliability-based approach that predicts the probability of corrosion initiation and damage (severe cracking) for concrete infrastructure subjected to carbonation and chloride-induced corrosion resulting from elevated CO(2) levels and temperatures. The atmospheric CO(2) concentration and local temperature and relative humidity changes with time over the next 100 years in the Australian cities of Sydney and Darwin are projected based on nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) under (i) high CO(2) emission scenario| (ii) medium CO(2) emission scenario| and (iii) CO(2) emission reduction scenario based on policy intervention. The probabilistic analysis included the uncertainty of CO(2) concentration| deterioration processes| material properties| dimensions| and predictive models. It was found that carbonation-induced damage risks can increase by over 400% over a time period to 2100 for some regions in Australia. Damage risks for chloride-induced corrosion increase by no more than 15% over the same time period due to temperature increase| but without consideration of ocean acidity change in marine exposure. Corrosion loss of reinforcement is not significant. The results were most sensitive to increases in atmospheric CO(2). (C) 2001 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11982,2011,2,4,Climate change impact on crop water requirements in arid Rajasthan,The impact of projected climate change by 21(st) century on water requirements of rainfed monsoon and irrigated winter crops of arid Rajasthan has been studied. Crop water requirements were estimated from daily potential evapotranspiration at ambient and projected air temperature by 2020| 2050| 2080 and 2100 using modified Penman-Monteith equation and then by multiplying with crop coefficients. Crop water requirements in the region varied from 308 to 411 mm for pearl millet| 244 to 332 mm for clusterbean| 217 to 296 mm for green gram| 189 to 260 mm for moth bean| 173 to 288 mm for wheat and 209 to 343 mm for mustard. Further| due to global warming| if the projected temperatures rises by 4 degrees C| by the end of 21(st) century| water requirement in arid Rajasthan increases from the current level| by 12.9% for pearl millet and clusterbean| 12.8% for green gram| 13.2% for moth bean| 17.1% for wheat and 19.9% for mustard. The increased crop water requirements in the region| resulted in reduction in crop growing period by 5 days for long duration crops| but the crop acreage where rainfall satisfies crop water requirements| reduced by 23.3% in pearl millet| 15.2% in clusterbean| 6.7% in green gram| 13% in moth bean. The study reveals that the impact will be more severe on rabi crops than kharif crops| the rabi crops being dependent on depleting ground water resources in the region. 3451,2011,2,2,Climate change impacts on coastal and pelagic environments in the southeastern Bay of Biscay,The impacts of global climate change on the Basque coast and the pelagic systems within the southeastern Bay of Biscay are reviewed. Climate projections under greenhouse gas emission scenarios indicate that this area will experience changes in climate throughout the 21st century| including warming of surface air (especially heat wave episodes)| intensification of extreme daily rainfall (10%)| warming of the upper 100 m of the ocean layer (1.5 to 2.05 degrees C)| and sea level rise (SLR; 29 to 49 cm). Observations made in the bay throughout the 20th century for air temperature and mean sea level are in agreement with these projections. Trends in ocean-climatic historical observations within the area| including sea temperature| precipitation| upwelling/downwelling| turbulence and wave climate| are also reviewed. The main impacts on the coast are expected to be from SLR| especially in low-lying areas (mostly urbanised) within estuaries. Sandy beaches are also expected to undergo significant mean shoreline retreats of between 25 and 40% of their width. As the sea level rises| the natural migration of saltmarshes and intertidal seagrasses landward will be constrained| in most cases| by existing anthropogenic fixed boundaries. Empirical relationships between the distribution and dynamics of the long-term biological measures (plankton| primary production| benthos| and fisheries) on the one hand| and ocean-climatic variability on the other| indicate that pelagic and coastal water ecosystems will be affected by ocean warming| increased stratification| shifts in anomaly patterns and streamflow regimes. The largest uncertainties are associated with the lack of down-scaled projections within the bay on ocean circulation| ocean-meteorological indices| wave climate and ocean acidification. 3484,2011,2,4,Climate change impedes scleractinian corals as primary reef ecosystem engineers,Coral reefs are among the most diverse and productive ecosystems on our planet. Scleractinian corals function as the primary reef ecosystem engineers| constructing the framework that serves as a habitat for all other coral reef-associated organisms. However| the coral's engineering role is particularly susceptible to global climate change. Ocean warming can cause extensive mass coral bleaching| which triggers dysfunction of major engineering processes. Sub-lethal bleaching results in the reduction of both primary productivity and coral calcification. This may lead to changes in the release of organic and inorganic products| thereby altering critical biogeochemical and recycling processes in reef ecosystems. Thermal stress-induced bleaching and subsequent coral mortality| along with ocean acidification| further lead to long-term shifts in benthic community structure| changes in topographic reef complexity| and the modification of reef functioning. Such shifts may cause negative feedback loops and further modification of coral-derived inorganic and organic products. This review emphasises the critical role of scleractinian corals as reef ecosystem engineers and highlights the control of corals over key reef ecosystem goods and services| including high biodiversity| coastal protection| fishing| and tourism. Thus| climate change by impeding coral ecosystem engineers will impair the ecosystem functioning of entire reefs. 3311,2011,5,4,Climate change imprinting on stable isotopic compositions of high-elevation meteoric water cloaks past surface elevations of major orogens,Stable isotope paleoaltimetry has been widely used to estimate Cenozoic surface elevation of major orogens. The influence of global climate change on stable isotope paleoaltimetry is uncertain| with proposals that warming could cause either overestimates or underestimates of past surface elevations. In this study we increase atmospheric pCO(2) by two and four times in an isotope-tracking atmospheric general circulation model to investigate the effect of global warming on oxygen isotopic compositions of precipitation (delta(18)O(p)) over the continents. As in other climate models| the response in the GENESIS version 3 model to global warming is an amplification of upper troposphere temperatures through enhanced infrared absorption and a reduction in the surface to upper-level temperature gradient. Due to the temperature dependence of isotopic fractionation| vapor delta(18)O (delta(18)O(v)) follows suit| leading to a reduction in the surface to upper troposphere delta(18)O(v) gradient. In regions of subsidence| including the major orogens and deserts| downward mixing of (18)O-enriched vapor from the troposphere to the near surface further reduces the lapse rate of delta(18)O(v). As a consequence of these effects| the isotopic composition of precipitation in high-elevation regions| including the Tibetan Plateau| Rocky Mountains| European Alps| and Andean Plateau| increases by 3%-6% relative to that at low elevations. Neglect of this climate effect on high-elevation delta(18)O(p) has likely led to underestimates of the surface elevation of Cenozoic orogens. 12401,2011,3,4,Climate change in the context of global environmental governance possibilities,Recent information campaigns of media and the ongoing substantive discussions of experts have been more and more devoted to the climate change issue and its impacts that could affect our future and threaten the sustainable and balanced development of the planet Earth. However| the categorical apparatus as presented at the above mentioned events is not always used correctly and the same is true about the objective interpretation of the very nature of the processes. Also the explanations of realistic options of governance to mitigate and streamline the effects associated with climate variability in order to achieve the least possible damage of global environment are not always given appropriately. Because of a lack of specific statistical data on climate variability| which are usually at the sole disposal of professional climate scientists| and owing to the attention the public pays to these phenomena only at times of climatic anomalies (floods| extreme heat and drought| etc.)| the issue is still on the edge of a broader awareness of people and academic research. This paper is in essence an overview of scientific works| which aims to contribute to the understanding of the issue of climate change by the means of summarizing the main approaches and use of categories| defining their substance and especially clarifying the phenomena in relation to possibilities of global governance. 12108,2011,2,2,Climate change increases the risk of malaria in birds,Malaria caused by Plasmodium parasites is one of the worst scourges of mankind and threatens wild animal populations. Therefore| identifying mechanisms that mediate the spread of the disease is crucial for both human health and conservation. Human-induced climate change has been hypothesized to alter the geographic distribution of malaria pathogens. As the earth warms| arthropod vectors may display a general range expansion or may enjoy longer breeding season| both of which can enhance parasite transmission. Moreover| Plasmodium species may directly benefit for elevating temperatures| which provide stimulating conditions for parasite reproduction. To test for the link between climate change and malaria prevalence on a global scale for the first time| I used long-term records on avian malaria| which is a key model for studying the dynamics of naturally occurring malarial infections. Following the variation in parasite prevalence in more than 3000 bird species over seven decades| I show that the infection rate by Plasmodium is strongly associated with temperature anomalies and has been augmented with accelerating tendency during the last 20 years. The impact of climate change on malaria prevalence varies across continents| with the strongest effects found for Europe and Africa. Migration habit did not predict susceptibility to the escalating parasite pressure by Plasmodium. Consequently| wild birds are at an increasing risk of malaria infection due to recent climate change| which can endanger both naive bird populations and domesticated animals. The prevailing avian example may provide useful lessons for understanding the effect of climate change on malaria in humans. 12690,2011,2,4,Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions| connectivity| and dispersal corridors,Boreal species sensitive to the timing and duration of snow cover are particularly vulnerable to global climate change. Recent work has shown a link between wolverine (Gulo gulo) habitat and persistent spring snow cover through 15 May| the approximate end of the wolverine's reproductive denning period. We modeled the distribution of snow cover within the Columbia| Upper Missouri| and Upper Colorado River Basins using a downscaled ensemble climate model. The ensemble model was based on the arithmetic mean of 10 global climate models (GCMs) that best fit historical climate trends and patterns within these three basins. Snow cover was estimated from resulting downscaled temperature and precipitation patterns using a hydrologic model. We bracketed our ensemble model predictions by analyzing warm (miroc 3.2) and cool (pcm1) downscaled GCMs. Because Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based snow cover relationships were analyzed at much finer grain than downscaled GCM output| we conducted a second analysis based on MODIS-based snow cover that persisted through 29 May| simulating the onset of spring two weeks earlier in the year. Based on the downscaled ensemble model| 67% of predicted spring snow cover will persist within the study area through 2030-2059| and 37% through 2070-2099. Estimated snow cover for the ensemble model during the period 20702099 was similar to persistent MODIS snow cover through 29 May. Losses in snow cover were greatest at the southern periphery of the study area (Oregon| Utah| and New Mexico| USA) and least in British Columbia| Canada. Contiguous areas of spring snow cover become smaller and more isolated over time| but large (>1000 km(2)) contiguous areas of wolverine habitat are predicted to persist within the study area throughout the 21st century for all projections. Areas that retain snow cover throughout the 21st century are British Columbia| north-central Washington| northwestern Montana| and the Greater Yellowstone Area. By the late 21st century| dispersal modeling indicates that habitat isolation at or above levels associated with genetic isolation of wolverine populations becomes widespread. Overall| we expect wolverine habitat to persist throughout the species range at least for the first half of the 21st century| but populations will likely become smaller and more isolated.
12428,2011,2,4,Climate change threatens the survival of highly endangered Sardinian populations of the snake Hemorrhois hippocrepis,Sardinian populations of the snake Hemorrhois (= Coluber) hippocrepis are likely the most endangered populations of snakes in Italy. Major threats to survivorship are the anthropogenic habitat alteration and the extremely low population density| while nothing is known about the potential effects that climate change could exert on this species. The main goal of this paper is to provide helpful instruments for the short- and long-term conservation of H. hippocrepis in Sardinia. By means of an ecological modeling approach| we derived the Sardinian whip snake habitat suitability map| and we compared the potential range extent under present condition and future climatic scenarios. Results clearly show an alarming trend for H. hippocrepis conservation: changing climate conditions will cause a dramatic reduction on suitable surface since 2020| with a further collapse by 2050 (down to 11 km(2)). We also identified areas of species potential persistence up till 2050| where prospective management initiatives could have the greatest probability of success in this region. In particular| only one existing protected area will likely still keep suitable habitats for H. hippocrepis. Therefore| we suggest that very careful management of this relictual area should be implemented by now if we really want to save these exceedingly threatened snake populations. (C) Koninklijke Brill NV| Leiden| 2011. 11589,2011,4,2,Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment,We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models| including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways| ozone concentration| aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1)| constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K| is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models| but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin| and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere| and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative to 1990| with further large reductions needed beyond that to achieve the E1 concentrations pathway. Negative allowable anthropogenic carbon emissions at and beyond 2100 cannot be ruled out for the E1 scenario. There is self-consistency between the multi-model ensemble of allowable anthropogenic carbon emissions and the E1 scenario emissions from IMAGE 2.4. 12507,2011,2,4,Climate Change| Aeroallergens| and Pediatric Allergic Disease,The degree to which aeroallergens are contributing to the global increase in pediatric allergic disease is incompletely understood. We review the evidence that links climate change to changes in aeroallergens such as pollen and outdoor mold concentrations and| subsequently| aeroallergen association with pediatric allergic disease. We specifically explore the evidence on both the exacerbation and the development of allergic disease in children related to outdoor pollen and mold concentrations. Pediatric allergic diseases include atopic dermatitis or eczema| allergic rhinitis or hay fever| and some types of asthma in children| typically defined as <18 years of age. We discuss how the timing of aeroallergen exposure both in utero and in childhood could be associated with allergies. We conclude that the magnitude and type of health impacts due to climate change will depend on improved understanding of the relationship between climatic variables| multiple allergen factors| and allergic disease. Improved public-health strategies such as adequate humidity control| optimum air filtration and ventilation| and improved anticipatory public-health messaging will be critical to adaptation. Mt Sinai J Med 78:78-84| 2011. (C) 2011 Mount Sinai School of Medicine 12356,2011,2,4,Climate change| chytridiomycosis or condition: an experimental test of amphibian survival,Variation in climatic temperature is frequently cited as playing a powerful role in driving host/pathogen dynamics| and as a consequence future patterns of disease are predicted to change owing to global warming. However| the preponderance of data is correlative and few quantitative tests exist that dissect the relative effects of changing temperature on host and pathogen responses. In this study| we experimentally tested the effect overwintering temperature had on the susceptibility of a vertebrate ectothermic host| the common toad Bufo bufo| to infection and mortality caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). We show that a 'poor' (warmer) overwintering regime increases the probability of infection| supporting the concept that the dynamics of infection are altered by changing environmental temperature profiles. We also show once established| the proliferation of Bd in the host was better in toadlets that experienced a 'good' (colder) winter. We find no relationship between survival and the different overwintering regimes or any consistent deleterious influence of disease on survival. Instead| survival is overwhelmingly predicted by measurements of condition (mass| mass lost over winter) that were not determined by overwintering temperature. We conclude that the survival of a cohort of overwintering toadlets is primarily driven by patterns of growth during the larval period rather than winter temperature or infectious disease. 12590,2011,2,4,Climate Change| Crop Yields| and Undernutrition: Development of a Model to Quantify the Impact of Climate Scenarios on Child Undernutrition,BACKGROUND: Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security| thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex| and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. OBJECTIVES: We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. METHODS: We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model| using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). RESULTS: We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting| which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). CONCLUSIONS: Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA| even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition| it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions| as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 12251,2011,3,4,Climate Change| Nuclear Economics| and Conflicts of Interest,Merck suppressed data on harmful effects of its drug Vioxx| and Guidant suppressed data on electrical flaws in one of its heart-defibrillator models. Both cases reveal how financial conflicts of interest can skew biomedical research. Such conflicts also occur in electric-utility-related research. Attempting to show that increased atomic energy can help address climate change| some industry advocates claim nuclear power is an inexpensive way to generate low-carbon electricity. Surveying 30 recent nuclear analyses| this paper shows that industry-funded studies appear to fall into conflicts of interest and to illegitimately trim cost data in several main ways. They exclude costs of full-liability insurance| underestimate interest rates and construction times by using "overnight" costs| and overestimate load factors and reactor lifetimes. If these trimmed costs are included| nuclear-generated electricity can be shown roughly 6 times more expensive than most studies claim. After answering four objections| the paper concludes that| although there may be reasons to use reactors to address climate change| economics does not appear to be one of them. 12720,2011,2,3,Climate change| phenological shifts| eco-evolutionary responses and population viability: toward a unifying predictive approach,The debate on emission targets of greenhouse gasses designed to limit global climate change has to take into account the ecological consequences. One of the clearest ecological consequences is shifts in phenology. Linking these shifts to changes in population viability under various greenhouse gasses emission scenarios requires a unifying framework. We propose a box-in-a-box modeling approach that couples population models to phenological change. This approach unifies population modeling with both ecological responses to climate change as well as evolutionary processes. We advocate a mechanistic embedded correlative approach| where the link from genes to population is established using a periodic matrix population model. This periodic model has several major advantages: (1) it can include complex seasonal behaviors allowing an easy link with phenological shifts; (2) it provides the structure of the population at each phase| including the distribution of genotypes and phenotypes| allowing a link with evolutionary processes; and (3) it can incorporate the effect of climate at different time periods. We believe that the way climatologists have approached the problem| using atmosphere-ocean coupled circulation models in which components are gradually included and linked to each other| can provide a valuable example to ecologists. We hope that ecologists will take up this challenge and that our preliminary modeling framework will stimulate research toward a unifying predictive model of the ecological consequences of climate change. 3433,2011,3,4,Climate change| water resources| and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa,Through an examination of global climate change models combined with hydrological data on deteriorating water quality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)| we elucidate the ways in which the MENA countries are vulnerable to climate-induced impacts on water resources. Adaptive governance strategies| however| remain a low priority for political leaderships in the MENA region. To date| most MENA governments have concentrated the bulk of their resources on large-scale supply side projects such as desalination| dam construction| inter-basin water transfers| tapping fossil groundwater aquifers| and importing virtual water. Because managing water demand| improving the efficiency of water use| and promoting conservation will be key ingredients in responding to climate-induced impacts on the water sector| we analyze the political| economic| and institutional drivers that have shaped governance responses. While the scholarly literature emphasizes the importance of social capital to adaptive governance| we find that many political leaders and water experts in the MENA rarely engage societal actors in considering water risks. We conclude that the key capacities for adaptive governance to water scarcity in MENA are underdeveloped. 12763,2011,2,4,Climate change| zoonoses and India,Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector| but at the expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now| however| the reverse is beginning to happen| i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water| air and food| animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years| vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region| including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis| causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised| and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research| as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly| climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses| and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review. 12034,2011,3,4,Climate change: a crop protection challenge for the twenty-first century,Convincing data now show that temperatures are increasing| and that changing precipitation patterns are already affecting agriculture. Predicted future impacts vary by region| but all are projected to suffer productivity declines by the late twenty-first century unless successful mitigation measures are implemented soon. Exacerbating the climate change challenge| doubling of overall crop productivity will be required by mid-century. Clearly| crop protection will become increasingly difficult as higher-yielding varieties present a larger and more tempting target to all pests| and the pests themselves extend their ranges poleward and into other new geographies owing to reduced winter kill and longer growing seasons. Fortunately| good progress on enhancing crop protection technology to meet these challenges is already being made| but the scope of this climatic provocation is such that complacency is not an option. Increased investment into new technologies and adoption of new agricultural practices with improved adaptive and mitigation potential are both essential. (C) 2011 Society of Chemical Industry 11977,2011,2,2,Climate determines upper| but not lower| altitudinal range limits of Pacific Northwest conifers,Does climate determine species' ranges? Rapid rates of anthropogenic warming make this classic ecological question especially relevant. We ask whether climate controls range limits by quantifying relationships between climatic variables (precipitation| temperature) and tree growth across the altitudinal ranges of six Pacific Northwestern conifers on Mt. Rainier| Washington| USA. Results for three species (Abies amabilis| Callitropsis nootkatensis| Tsuga mertensiana) whose upper limits occur at treeline (>1600 m) imply climatic controls on upper range limits| with low growth in cold and high snowpack years. Annual growth was synchronized among individuals at upper limits for these high-elevation species| further suggesting that stand-level effects such as climate constrain growth more strongly than local processes. By contrast| at lower limits climatic effects on growth were weak for these high-elevation species. Growth-climate relationships for three low-elevation species (Pseudotsuga menziesii| Thuja plicata| Tsuga heterophylla) were not consistent with expectations of climatic controls on upper limits| which are located within closed-canopy forest (<1200 m). Annual growth of these species was poorly synchronized among individuals. Our results suggest that climate controls altitudinal range limits at treeline| while local drivers (perhaps biotic interactions) influence growth in closed-canopy forests. Climate-change-induced range shifts in closed-canopy forests will therefore be difficult to predict accurately. 12049,2011,2,4,Climate Effects on Anthocyanin Accumulation and Composition in the Pomegranate (Punica granatum L.) Fruit Arils,Worldwide pomegranate (Punica granatum L.) production has expanded greatly due to recent evidence on the fruit health attributes. The fruit's unique red color| conferred by anthocyanins| is an imperative sensory quality. Climate effects on the fruit's internal color were reported earlier. The present study investigated the influence of a wide range of temperature regimes (similar to 7-40 degrees C) on pomegranates' aril anthocyanins. The study included two deciduous and two evergreen accessions as well as desert and Mediterranean orchards. RP-HPLC analysis of the arils' anthocyanins revealed mono- and diglucosylated delphinidins and cyanidins as the major anthocyanins and pelargonidins as minor components. Anthocyanin accumulation changed inversely to the season's temperatures. Cyanidins were generally more abundant but delphinidin accumulation was enhanced in cooler season. Monoglucosylated anthocyanins prevailed at cooler temperatures and subsided during seasonal warming with a concomitant increase in diglucoside proportion. The findings can benefit breeding and agricultural efforts to enhance pomegranate quality| especially in the face of "global warming". 11660,2011,2,4,Climate Extremes and the Length of Gestation,BACKGROUND: Although future climate is predicted to have more extreme heat conditions| the available evidence on the impact of these conditions on pregnancy length is very scarce and inconclusive. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the impact of maternal short-term exposure to extreme ambient heat on the length of pregnancy. METHODS: This study was based on a cohort of births that occurred in a major university hospital in Barcelona during 2001-2005. Three indicators of extreme heat conditions based on 1-day exposure to an unusually high heat-humidity index were applied. Each mother was assigned the measures made by the meteorological station closest to maternal residential postcodes. A two-stage analysis was developed to quantify the change in pregnancy length after maternal exposure to extreme heat conditions adjusted for a range of covariates. The second step was repeated for lags 0 (delivery date) to 6 days. RESULTS: We included data from 7|585 pregnant women in our analysis. We estimated a 5-day reduction in average gestational age at delivery after an unusually high heat-humidity index on the day before delivery. CONCLUSION: Extreme heat was associated with a reduction in the average gestational age of children delivered the next day| suggesting an immediate effect of this exposure on pregnant women. Further studies are required to confirm our findings in different settings. 3284,2011,2,4,Climate forcing and the California Current ecosystem,The Climate Forcing and Marine Ecosystem (CFAME) Task Team of the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) was formed to address climate forcing impacts on ecosystem structure and productivity of marine species. For the California Current system| the Task Team described the physical processes| built an overview of species across trophic levels| and described how the population dynamics of these species have changed over time. Based on the synthesis work| conceptual models were developed describing the potential pathways linking climate forcing| oceanography| and species' responses. The resultant empirical data scenarios draw on ecosystem histories to provide a synopsis of expected change given global climate change. The multidisciplinary team faced challenges and limitations in their attempt to draw connections between the outputs from global climate models (GCMs)| the physical processes| and the subsequent impacts on species via the identified pathways. To some degree| there was a mismatch of variables that fishery scientists identified as important in determining species' response to climate and physical forcing and the variables that current GCMs can now resolve at the regional level. These gaps will be important for researchers to consider as they begin to develop higher-resolution climate and regional oceanographic models for forecasting changes in species' productivity. 3395,2011,2,2,Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Implications for Forage and Rangeland Production,Projections of temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the next 50 yr anticipate a 1.5 to 2 degrees C warming and a slight increase in precipitation as a result of global climate change. There have been relatively few studies of climate change effects on pasture and rangeland (grazingland) species compared to those on crop species| despite the economic and ecological importance of the former. Here we review the literature on responses of pastureland and rangeland species to rising atmospheric CO(2) and climate change (temperature and precipitation) and discuss plant and management factors likely to influence pastureland and rangeland responses to change (e.g.| community composition| plant competition| perennial growth habit| seasonal productivity| and management methods). Overall| the response of pastureland and rangeland species to increased [CO(2)] is consistent with the general responses of C(3) and C(4) vegetation| although exceptions exist. Both pastureland and rangeland species may experience accelerated metabolism and advanced development with rising temperature| often resulting in a longer growing season. However| soil resources will often constrain temperature effects. In general| it is expected that increases in [CO(2)] and precipitation will enhance rangeland net primary production (NPP) whereas increased air temperatures will either increase or decrease NPP. Much of the uncertainty in predicting how pastureland and rangeland species will respond to climate change is due to uncertainty in future projections of precipitation| both globally and regionally. This review reveals the need for comprehensive studies of climate change impacts on pastureland and rangeland ecosystems that include an assessment of the mediating effects of grazing regimes and mutualistic relationships (e.g.| plant roots-nematodes; N-fixing organisms) as well as changes in water| carbon| and nutrient cycling. 12465,2011,4,3,Climate is changing| can we? A scientific exhibition in schools to understand climate change and raise awareness on sustainability good practices,Climate change is recognised as the most urgent environmental problem we are facing today. Communication initiatives can play a key role in addressing people's perception of climate change possibly driving them to change their lifestyles. The Institute of Biometeorology of Italian National Research Council realised in 2006-2007 a communication campaign through a science exhibition visited by more than 2000 students with the aim of raising awareness on climate change impacts and sustainability "good practices"| involving also 240 students in a carbon diet contest. This work describes the concept of the educational exhibition and the impressive carbon cuts obtained by students. 12239,2011,2,4,Climate response of tree-ring width in Larix sibirica growing in the drought-stressed forest-steppe ecotone of northern Mongolia,Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) has its southern distribution limit in Mongolia in an area of rapidly rising temperatures. Direct effects of climate on tree-ring formation due to drought stress or indirect effects via the control of insect herbivore populations are little studied. The hypotheses were tested that stem increment of Siberian larch is reduced by (1) drought during the growing season and (2) high snow cover| as the latter is thought to protect hibernating herbivores| including gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). Tree-ring width increases with decreasing summer temperature| increasing precipitation during the growing season and decreasing winter precipitation. The susceptibility of stem wood formation to drought during the growing season suggests that a future climate warming will decrease productivity of Siberian larch| thus affecting its existence within the forest-steppe ecotone of Mongolia. Narrow tree rings in years following winters with low snowfall support the hypothesis that winter precipitation exerts an indirect effect on the growth of Siberian larch by controlling the survival rates of gypsy moth eggs. 12112,2011,2,4,Climate Warming and the Recent Treeline Shift in the European Alps: The Role of Geomorphological Factors in High-Altitude Sites,Global warming and the stronger regional temperature trends recently recorded over the European Alps have triggered several biological and physical dynamics in high-altitude environments. We defined the present treeline altitude in three valleys of a region in the western Italian Alps and reconstructed the past treeline position for the last three centuries in a nearly undisturbed site by means of a dendrochronological approach. We found that the treeline altitude in this region is mainly controlled by human impacts and geomorphological factors. The reconstruction of the altitudinal dynamics at the study site reveals that the treeline shifted upwards of 115 m over the period 1901-2000| reaching the altitude of 2505 m in 2000 and 2515 m in 2008. The recent treeline shift and the acceleration of tree colonization rates in the alpine belt can be mainly ascribed to the climatic input. However| we point out the increasing role of geomorphological factors in controlling the future treeline position and colonization patterns in high mountains. 3173,2011,5,4,Climate| environment| and humans in North America's Great Basin during the Younger Dryas| 12|900-11|600 calendar years ago,Global climate change associated with the onset of the Younger Dryas chronozone affected different regions of the northern hemisphere in different ways. In the Great Basin of western North America| the effect was positive for human populations. Relatively cool temperatures causing effectively wetter conditions filled some pluvial basins with shallow but permanent lakes and other basins with well-watered marshes or meadows. Vegetation communities dominated by sagebrush and grasses promoted healthy and diverse animal populations. Ten archaeological sites from the region have been dated to the Younger Dryas chronozone. Evidence from these sites indicates that Paleoindians with skull shapes and mitochondrial DNA similar to modern western North American Indians occupied the region. These early humans produced a material culture characterized predominantly by large stemmed bifacial points| although one site contained a small fluted point. Curated tool forms and technological activities represented in analyzed lithic assemblages suggest a highly mobile settlement strategy| and redundant short-term occupations of sites indicate frequent and long-distance residential moves across territories span:ling distances of up to 400 km. Paleoindian subsistence pursuits focused on artiodactyls (primarily mule deer| bighorn sheep| and pronghorn antelope)| leporids (chiefly jackrabbits)| birds (sage grouse and waterfowl)| insects (grasshoppers)| and possibly fish. Easy-to-process plants like cactus pads were also eaten| but small seeds do not seem to have been an important part of Great Basin human diets until long after the Younger Dryas| closer to 9500 cal BP. The Great Basin record contains no evidence for natural catastrophe at the onset of the chronozone. Instead| the Younger Dryas appears to have been among the best of times for human foragers in this region of North America. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. 11635,2011,2,4,Climate| icing| and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects,Across the Arctic| heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is an "extreme" climatic event that is expected to become increasingly frequent with global warming. This has potentially large ecosystem implications through changes in snowpack properties and ground-icing| which can block the access to herbivores' winter food and thereby suppress their population growth rates. However| the supporting empirical evidence for this is still limited. We monitored late winter snowpack properties to examine the causes and consequences of ground-icing in a Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) metapopulation. In this high-arctic area| heavy ROS occurred annually| and ground-ice covered from 25% to 96% of low-altitude habitat in the sampling period (2000-2010). The extent of ground-icing increased with the annual number| of days with heavy ROS (>= 10 mm) and had a strong negative effect on reindeer population growth rates. Our results have important implications as a downscaled climate projection (2021-2050) suggests a substantial future increase in ROS and icing. The present study is the first to demonstrate empirically that warmer and wetter winter climate influences large herbivore population dynamics by generating ice-locked pastures. This may serve as an early warning of the importance of changes in winter climate and extreme weather events in arctic ecosystems.
3185,2011,2,3,Climate-change winners and losers: stream macroinvertebrates of a submontane region in Central Europe,1. Freshwater ecosystems will be profoundly affected by global climate change| especially those in mountainous areas| which are known to be particularly vulnerable to warming temperatures. We modelled impacts of climate change on the distribution ranges of 38 species of benthic stream macroinvertebrates from nine macroinvertebrate orders covering all river zones from the headwaters to large river reaches. 2. Species altitudinal shifts as well as range changes up to the year 2080 were simulated using the A2a and B2a Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate-warming scenarios. Presence-only species distribution models were constructed for a stream network in Germany's lower mountain ranges by means of consensus projections of four algorithms| as implemented in the BIOMOD package in R (GLM| GAM| GBM and ANN). 3. Species were predicted to shift an average of 122 and 83 m up in altitude along the river continuum by the year 2080 under the A2a and B2a climate-warming scenarios| respectively. No correlation between altitudinal shifts and mean annual air temperature of species' occurrence could be detected. 4. Depending on the climate-warming scenario| most or all (97% for A2a and 100% for B2a) of the macroinvertebrate species investigated were predicted to survive under climate change in the study area. Ranges were predicted to contract for species that currently occur in streams with low annual mean air temperatures but expand for species that inhabit rivers where air temperatures are higher. 5. Our models predict that novel climate conditions will reorganise species composition and community structure along the river continuum. Possible effects are discussed| including significant reductions in population size of headwater species| eventually leading to a loss of genetic diversity. A shift in river species composition is likely to enhance the establishment of non-native macroinvertebrates in the lower reaches of the river continuum. 11824,2011,2,4,Climate-induced input of turbid glacial meltwater affects vertical distribution and community composition of phyto- and zooplankton,Receding glaciers are among the most obvious changes caused by global warming| and glacial meltwater entering lakes generally forms plumes of particles. By taking vertical samples along a horizontal gradient from such a particle source| we found that photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and ultraviolet radiation (UVR) attenuated 20-25% faster close to the inflow of suspended particles compared with the more transparent part of the gradient. All sampled stations had a deep chlorophyll a (Chl a) maximum at 15-20 m which was more distinct in the transparent part of the horizontal gradient. Picocyanobacteria increased in abundance in more transparent water and their numbers were tightly correlated with the intensity of the deep Chl a maxima. Motile species of phytoplankton had a deeper depth distribution in transparent versus less transparent water. Yet other species| like Chrysochromulina parva| that can withstand high PAR intensities and low nutrient concentrations| increased in abundance as the water became more transparent. Also copepods increased in abundance| indicating that they are more successful in transparent water. We conclude that sediment input into lakes creates horizontal gradients in PAR and UVR attenuation which strongly affect both distribution and behavior of phyto-and zooplankton. The input of glacial flour creates a sub-habitat that can function as a refuge for species that are sensitive to high PAR and UVR exposure. When the glacier has vanished| this habitat may disappear. During the melting period| with heavy sediment input| we predict that competitive species in transparent waters| like Chrysocromulina| picocyanobacteria and copepods| will become less common. The deep Chl a maxima is also likely to become less developed. Hence| glacier melting will probably have profound effects on both species composition and behavior of several planktonic taxa with potential effects on the food web. 3459,2011,3,4,Climate-proofing transboundary water agreements,Global climate change will pose a wide range of challenges to freshwater resources| altering water quantity| quality| system operations| and imposing new governance complications. Among the many unresolved challenges is how to integrate information on future hydroclimatological conditions into the politically complex system of transboundary water agreements| including formal treaties| international agreements| and transnational management institutions. Yet| most treaties and international agreements lack important tools for dealing with current challenges| such as flood control and water quality| and they lack adequate mechanisms for addressing changing social| economic or climate conditions. There are various approaches that can be incorporated into existing treaties to allow for flexibility in the face of climate change| including: (1) adjustable allocation strategies and water-quality standards; (2) response strategies for extreme events; (3) amendment and review procedures; and (4) joint management institutions. We offer some explicit examples where specific strategies have been successfully implemented in ways that both reduce the risks of political conflicts over shared waters and lessen vulnerabilities to climatic changes. 11576,2011,5,4,Climate-related changes during the Late Glacial and early Holocene in northern Poland| as derived from the sediments of Lake Sierzywk,Reconstruction of past climate change and ecosystem response is important to correctly assess the impacts of global warming. In this study| we provide a paleoenvironmental record of in-lake and catchment changes in northern Poland during the Late Glacial and early Holocene using various biotic proxies (pollen| macrofossils and Cladocera) preserved in the lake sedimentary record. Chronology was derived from palynological correlation with a well-dated pollen sequence from nearby-lying Lake Ostrowite and some well-dated events of vegetation history in Central Europe. Pollen analysis provided information on regional climate change affecting vegetation dynamics| whereas macrofossils supplied substantial information on the response of local flora and fauna to climatic| geomorphological and limnological changes. Data were supplemented by analysis of Cladocera remains| which are of special importance because of their quick response to changes in trophic conditions and climate (especially temperature). The bottom of the sediment core reflects an initial stage of the lake formed during the late Allerod. The Younger Dryas cooling apparently resulted in forest recession and presence of cold tolerant Cladocera species. Due to amelioration of climate at the end of the Younger Dryas and melting of ice| the lake deepened. The beginning of the Holocene was characterised by forest shrinkage and induced clear changes in local flora and fauna communities. The regional vegetation development deduced from the lake's core is generally consistent with the vegetation history of central Europe. Due to the location of the site near the seashore (oceanic climate and western wind)| signals of warming came earlier than inland and in eastern Poland. 12444,2011,2,3,Climate-related changes in marine ecosystems simulated with a 3-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea,The combined effect of changing climate and changing nutrient loads from land due to altered land use| sewage water treatment and emissions was studied using a 3-dimensional high-resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical model for the Baltic Sea. Results suggest that global warming causes increased water temperatures and reduced sea ice cover| combined (eventually) with increased winter mean wind speeds and increased river runoff. The projected hydrographic changes could therefore have significant effects on the marine ecosystem. These changes may compete with nutrient load reductions-presently under discussion-that aim to improve the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. Targets that may be sufficient in the present climate might fail under future climate conditions. Using the model| we investigated 4 climate change scenarios and 3 nutrient load scenarios| ranging from a pessimistic 'business as usual' to the 'most optimistic' case (including the Baltic Sea Action Plan| BSAP). In addition| using cause-and-effect studies| we analyzed changing simulated nutrient cycles| oxygen concentrations| and phytoplankton concentrations. As model results for the northern part of the Baltic (Bothnian Bay and Bothnian Sea) are not reliable| we focus the analysis on the Baltic proper| including the Arkona| Bornholm and Gotland basins. The degree of nutrient reduction in nutrient-load reduction scenarios is likely to differ under a future climate| but actions of the BSAP will reduce phytoplankton concentrations also in the future climate. However| the sensitivity of non-linear responses to climate change depends on processes that are not well understood| with current understanding limited by modelling uncertainties (e.g. in the long-term functioning of Baltic Sea sediments as sources and sinks of nutrients). 11782,2011,2,2,Climatic and non-climatic drivers of spatiotemporal maize-area dynamics across the northern limit for maize production-A case study from Denmark,It is expected that the ongoing anthropogenic climate change will drive changes in agricultural production and its geographic distribution. Here| we assess the extent to which climate change is already driving spatiotemporal dynamics in maize production in Denmark. We use advanced spatial regression modeling with multi-model averaging to assess the extent to which the recent spatiotemporal dynamics of the maize area in Denmark are driven by climate (temperature as represented by maize heating units [MHU] and growing-season precipitation)| climate change and non-climatic factors (cattle density [in Denmark| maize is mainly grown for ensilage to feed livestock]| and sandy soil [facilitates maize growing in cold areas due to higher soil temperature than loamy soils]). Our results indicate that there has been a geographical expansion of maize in Denmark from 1999 to 2008| with a strong link to rising MHU at the national scale. The geographic distribution of maize cultivation in Denmark was mainly related to the distribution of cattle-livestock farming followed by sandy soils and climate (MHU). Cattle density has increased in importance over time indicating an increasing coupling of maize cultivation and cattle farming| probably reflecting a change to a more favorable climate for maize cultivation: in the beginning of the study period| northern areas were mostly too cold for maize cultivation| irrespective of cattle density| but this limitation has been diminishing as climate has warmed| allowing maize production also in northern locations with high cattle density. Similarly| the association of maize cultivation with sandy soils has decreased over the study period| again consistent with a decreasing overall climatic limitation. Thereby| reflecting an interactive effect of climatic and non-climatic factors on the maize area dynamics. Our results show that even the relatively small climate changes that have been realized in the last decades have been partly driving the spatiotemporal dynamics of an important agricultural crop towards its northern cultivation limit in Europe. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11844,2011,3,3,CO(2) capture using whey protein isolate,The removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is one of the most attractive methods to reduce global warming. This can be achieved by using various kinds of sorbents. In this study| the possibility of using proteins| such as whey protein isolates (WPI)| to capture carbon dioxide has been studied| together with the possible mechanisms. A Buchi (B 290) laboratory scale spray dryer was used to spray dry WPI solutions at different inlet gas temperatures. The gas sorption behaviour of the WPI samples was studied using a thermogravimetric analyser (TGA). The maximum capture capacities found in the TGA system were 0.4% for commercial WPI| and 0.78% and 0.74% for laboratory spray-dried WPI at 130 degrees C and 170 degrees C inlet gas temperatures| respectively. The reversibility of the WPI as a carbon dioxide sorbent was studied isothermally. The decrease in the capture capacity was 20% over 15 cycles| which was better than other solid sorbents found in the literature. The secondary structure was also investigated using ATR-FTIR. The amount of the beta-sheet was increased by spray drying. However| the carbon dioxide-protein interaction was not obviously enhanced by increasing the amount of the beta-sheets. Furthermore| protein denaturation was studied using differential scanning calorimetry. The results of this study are promising for the carbon dioxide capture by whey protein isolate. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11677,2011,3,3,CO(2) emissions from biomass combustion for bioenergy: atmospheric decay and contribution to global warming,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions from biomass combustion are traditionally assumed climate neutral if the bioenergy system is carbon (C) flux neutral| i.e. the CO(2) released from biofuel combustion approximately equals the amount of CO(2) sequestered in biomass. This convention| widely adopted in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies of bioenergy systems| underestimates the climate impact of bioenergy. Besides CO(2) emissions from permanent C losses| CO(2) emissions from C flux neutral systems (that is from temporary C losses) also contribute to climate change: before being captured by biomass regrowth| CO(2) molecules spend time in the atmosphere and contribute to global warming. In this paper| a method to estimate the climate impact of CO(2) emissions from biomass combustion is proposed. Our method uses CO(2) impulse response functions (IRF) from C cycle models in the elaboration of atmospheric decay functions for biomass-derived CO(2) emissions. Their contributions to global warming are then quantified with a unit-based index| the GWP(bio). Since this index is expressed as a function of the rotation period of the biomass| our results can be applied to CO(2) emissions from combustion of all the different biomass species| from annual row crops to slower growing boreal forest. 12506,2011,2,4,CO(2) maximum in the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ),Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs)| known as suboxic layers which are mainly localized in the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems| have been expanding since the 20th "high CO(2)" century| probably due to global warming. OMZs are also known to significantly contribute to the oceanic production of N(2)O| a greenhouse gas (GHG) more efficient than CO(2). However| the contribution of the OMZs on the oceanic sources and sinks budget of CO(2)| the main GHG| still remains to be established. We present here the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) structure| associated locally with the Chilean OMZ and globally with the main most intense OMZs (O(2) < 20 mu mol kg(-1)) in the open ocean. To achieve this| we examine simultaneous DIC and O(2) data collected off Chile during 4 cruises (2000-2002) and a monthly monitoring (2000-2001) in one of the shallowest OMZs| along with international DIC and O(2) databases and climatology for other OMZs. High DIC concentrations (>2225 mu mol kg(-1)| up to 2350 mu mol kg-1) have been reported over the whole OMZ thickness| allowing the definition for all studied OMZs a Carbon Maximum Zone (CMZ). Locally off Chile| the shallow cores of the OMZ and CMZ are spatially and temporally collocated at 21 degrees S| 30 degrees S and 36 degrees S despite different cross-shore| long-shore and seasonal configurations. Globally| the mean state of the main OMZs also corresponds to the largest carbon reserves of the ocean in subsurface waters. The CMZs-OMZs could then induce a positive feedback for the atmosphere during upwelling activity| as potential direct local sources of CO(2). The CMZ paradoxically presents a slight "carbon deficit" in its core (similar to 10%)| meaning a DIC increase from the oxygenated ocean to the OMZ lower than the corresponding O(2) decrease (assuming classical C/O molar ratios). This "carbon deficit" would be related to regional thermal mechanisms affecting faster O(2) than DIC (due to the carbonate buffer effect) and occurring upstream in warm waters (e. g.| in the Equatorial Divergence)| where the CMZOMZ core originates. The "carbon deficit" in the CMZ core would be mainly compensated locally at the oxycline| by a "carbon excess" induced by a specific remineralization. Indeed| a possible co-existence of bacterial heterotrophic and autotrophic processes usually occurring at different depths could stimulate an intense aerobic-anaerobic remineralization| inducing the deviation of C/O molar ratios from the canonical Redfield ratios. Further studies to confirm these results for all OMZs are required to understand the OMZ effects on both climatic feedback mechanisms and marine ecosystem perturbations. 3300,2011,3,3,CO(2) solvation free energy using quasi-chemical theory,Accumulation of greenhouse gases| especially carbon dioxide| is believed to be the key factor in global climate change. To develop effective ways to remove CO(2) from the atmosphere| it is helpful to understand the mechanism of CO(2) solvation first. Here we investigate the thermodynamics of CO(2) hydration using quasi-chemical theory. Two approaches for estimating hydration free energy are carried out. Both agree reasonably well with experimental measurements. Analysis of the free energy components reveals that the weak hydration free energy results from a balance of unfavorable molecular packing and favorable chemical association. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3598470] 3422,2011,2,4,CO(2)-mediated changes of plant traits and their effects on herbivores are determined by leaf age,2. In this study| we assess whether increased CO(2) quantitatively affects multiple defensive and nutritive traits in different leaf stages of cyanogenic wildtype lima bean plants (Phaseolus lunatus)| and whether plant responses influence performance and choice behaviour of a natural insect herbivore| the Mexican bean beetle (Epilachna varivestis). 3. We cultivated lima bean plants in climate chambers at ambient| 500| 700| and 1000 ppm CO(2) and analysed cyanogenic precursor concentration (nitrogen-based defence)| total phenolics (carbon-based defence)| leaf mass per area (LMA; physical defence)| and soluble proteins (nutritive parameter) of three defined leaf age groups. 4. In young leaves| cyanide concentration was the only parameter that quantitatively decreased in response to CO(2) treatments. In intermediate and mature leaves| cyanide and protein concentrations decreased while total phenolics and LMA increased. 5. Depending on leaf stage| CO(2)-mediated changes in leaf traits significantly affected larval performance and choice behaviour of adult beetles. We observed a complete shift from highest herbivore damage in mature leaves under natural CO(2) to highest damage of young leaves under elevated CO(2.) Our study shows that leaf stage is an essential factor when considering CO(2)-mediated changes of plant defences against herbivores. Since in the long run preferred consumption of young leaves can strongly affect plant fitness| variable effects of elevated CO(2) on different leaf stages should receive highlighted attention in future research. 12667,2011,3,3,Co-benefits of large-scale renewables in remote Australia: energy futures and climate change,Desert/remote Australia is blessed with abundant natural energy resources from solar| geothermal and other renewable sources. If these were harnessed and connected appropriately desert/remote Australia could be not only energy self-sufficient but a net exporter. Generation of abundant| clean energy can also attract energy-intensive industries and provide local income and employment. Such co-benefits should be included in any cost-benefit analysis. Regardless of renewable energy's contribution to reducing climate change| the world is already committed to global warming and associated climate changes. Desert/remote Australia will thus inevitably get warmer| with implications for health| energy demand and other issues| and may be subject to increased extremes such as flooding| longer dry spells| more severe storms and coastal inundation. In addition| the prospect of world demand for oil from conventional sources exceeding supply will likely lead to oil shortages| higher oil prices| and additional incentives to provide alternative energy supplies. The region is heavily reliant on diesel generators and fossil fuel-powered motor vehicles and airplanes for transport for within-region mobility| the importation of goods| the tourism industry and emergency medical services. Without adaptation| climate change and peak oil will make living in desert/remote Australia less attractive| resulting in increased difficulty of attracting and retaining skilled workers| which would constrain development. This paper focuses on the climate and energy-related impacts and potential responses. These are both a challenge and an opportunity. They could provide additional employment and income| thus helping remote communities to participate in the clean energy economy of the future and thus overcome some serious social problems. The paper attempts to review current knowledge and provoke debate on relevant investment strategies| and it teases out the questions in need of further research. 12864,2011,3,3,CO2 reduction strategies for the Northern Netherlands,The concern about global warming initiated ambitious CO2 reduction goals in cities and regions in the Netherlands. This article describes a study of such a local initiative for the Northern Netherlands. The research aimed to develop CO2 reduction scenarios for 2035 with national and international politics| and regional goals and opportunities being integrated. The scenarios were calculated using a bottom-up model. Four scenarios were developed with a defined goal of a 50% CO2 reduction on the starting year (2000). The four scenarios were developed along two axes: centralized versus decentralized energy supply systems| and international climate policy versus a European-oriented energy policy. Primary energy consumption varied between 273 and 443PJ. Although 50% CO2 reduction is possible in all scenarios| an enormous effort would be required to reach this goal. Depending on the scenario: an almost 50% reduction of the primary energy demand| the installation of 4 GW of offshore wind or the shift to a bio based economy is needed. 11675,2011,3,2,Coal to gas: the influence of methane leakage,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions from fossil fuel combustion may be reduced by using natural gas rather than coal to produce energy. Gas produces approximately half the amount of CO(2) per unit of primary energy compared with coal. Here we consider a scenario where a fraction of coal usage is replaced by natural gas (i.e.| methane| CH(4)) over a given time period| and where a percentage of the gas production is assumed to leak into the atmosphere. The additional CH(4) from leakage adds to the radiative forcing of the climate system| offsetting the reduction in CO(2) forcing that accompanies the transition from coal to gas. We also consider the effects of: methane leakage from coal mining; changes in radiative forcing due to changes in the emissions of sulfur dioxide and carbonaceous aerosols; and differences in the efficiency of electricity production between coal- and gas-fired power generation. On balance| these factors more than offset the reduction in warming due to reduced CO(2) emissions. When gas replaces coal there is additional warming out to 2|050 with an assumed leakage rate of 0%| and out to 2|140 if the leakage rate is as high as 10%. The overall effects on global-mean temperature over the 21st century| however| are small. 12132,2011,4,4,Coastal cooling and increased productivity in the main upwelling zone off Peru since the mid-twentieth century,We reconstructed a high-resolution| alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) record spanning the last ca. 150 years| from a sediment core retrieved within the main upwelling zone off Peru. A conspicuous SST decline is evidenced since the 1950s despite interdecadal SST variability. Instrumental SST data and reanalysis of ECMWF ERA 40 winds suggest that the recent coastal cooling corresponds mainly to an intensification of alongshore winds and associated increase of upwelling in spring. Consistently| both proxy and instrumental data evidence increased productivity in phase with the SST cooling. Our data expand on previous reports on recent SST cooling in other Eastern Boundary upwelling systems and support scenarios that relate coastal upwelling intensification to global warming. Yet| further investigations are needed to assess the role of different mechanisms and forcings (enhanced local winds vs. spin-up of the South Pacific High Pressure cell). Citation: Gutierrez| D.| et al. (2011)| Coastal cooling and increased productivity in the main upwelling zone off Peru since the mid-twentieth century| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L07603| doi:10.1029/2010GL046324. 11725,2011,5,4,Coastal dysoxia accompanies Early Miocene warming based on benthic foraminiferal and sedimentary records from Oregon,The Newport Member of the Astoria Formation| exposed on the central Oregon coast| was deposited at shallow marine depths during the Early Miocene global warming that led to the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. This record thus provides the opportunity to examine a coastal environment over past warming and ask if the low oxygen conditions observed in recent years on the modern Oregon shelf is a recent phenomenon or a repeated symptom of global warming. Although delta(18)O variation can be influenced by freshwater flux| if due to temperature delta(18)O values suggest 2.4-4.5 4.5 degrees C of local warming during deposition of the Newport Member. Species of Buliminacea. Fursenkoina| and Nonionella| abundant in organic-rich| low-oxygen sediments in modern seas| increased in proportional abundance after warming began. In addition| the offset in delta(13)C values between epifaunal to shallow infaunal taxa and a deeper infaunal species is greater in sediments with higher abundances of these taxa| further supporting increased organic carbon flux. An increase in laminated sediments coincident with these faunal and geochemical changes suggests dysoxic conditions accompanied the increase in organic carbon. Taken together| this multiproxy record suggests that high-organic| low-oxygen| environments developed in shallow waters during Early Miocene warming| perhaps driven by similar upwelling mechanisms thought to drive hypoxia on the modern Oregon coast. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3462,2011,3,3,COGENERATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY FROM ORGANIC WASTE IN INSULAR SETTINGS: A CASE FOR THE VIETNAMESE ISLAND OF PHU QUOC,Against the background of global climate change and increasing prices of fossil fuel| the importance of producing sustainable renewable energy increases significantly. CO(2)-neutral energy generation using biomass or organic waste is an alternative option that deserves attention particularly in developing countries. The aim of this paper is to provide an integrated framework for the preparation of feasibility studies for the renewable energy sector there| considering technical| environmental| economic| socio-cultural| legal and institutional aspects which are particular applicable for developing countries. Such a feasibility framework involves a definition of the scope| which reflects the aims and objectives of the target groups (supplier| operator| etc. of renewable energy supply) and the methodologies and tools involved. All relevant aspects are covered: data collection| selection of sites and assessment of options. Furthermore| methods and tools for risk assessment and decision-making are presented and a practical plan of procedures is last provided. The proposed framework is then applied to a selected area in Vietnam and certain results of the study| showing that the implementation of a biogas plant utilising organic waste would be feasible| are presented in this paper. 12641,2011,4,4,Cold months in a warming climate,The frequency of cold months in the 21st century is studied using the CMIP3 ensemble of climate model simulations| using month-| location- and model-specific threshold temperatures derived from the simulated 20th century climate. Unsurprisingly| cold months are projected to become less common| but not non-existent| under continued global warming. As a multi-model mean over the global land area excluding Antarctica and under the SRES A1B scenario| 14% of the months during the years 2011-2050 are simulated to be colder than the 20th century median for the same month| 1.3% colder than the 10th percentile| and 0.1% record cold. The geographic and seasonal variations in the frequency of cold months are strongly modulated by variations in the magnitude of interannual variability. Thus| for example| cold months are most infrequently simulated over the tropical oceans where the variability is smallest| not over the Arctic where the warming is largest. Citation: Raisanen| J.| and J. S. Ylhaisi (2011)| Cold months in a warming climate| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L22704| doi: 10.1029/2011GL049758. 12275,2011,3,4,Combined application of LCA and eco-design for the sustainable production of wood boxes for wine bottles storage,The main objective of this study is to combine the environmental evaluation of a basic wood box used to store wine bottles by means of the integration of two environmental methodologies: a quantitative methodology known as life cycle assessment (LCA) and a qualitative methodology which is useful in integrating environmental aspects into design| that is| the design for the environment (DfE). The LCA study covers the life cycle of wood box production from a cradle-to-gate perspective. A wood processing company located in Galicia (NW| Spain) was analysed in detail| dividing the process chain into five stages: cogeneration unit| material assembling| painting| packaging and distribution to clients. Abiotic depletion (AD)| acidification| eutrophication| global warming| ozone layer depletion (OD)| photochemical oxidant formation (PO)| human toxicity (HT) and toxicological impact categories (HT| fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity| marine aquatic ecotoxicity and terrestrial ecotoxicity) were the impact categories analysed in the LCA study. According to the environmental results| the assembling stage contributed more than 57% to all impact categories| followed by the cogeneration unit and packaging. Contributions from packaging are mainly due to transoceanic transport activities related to the rope distribution and wood-based materials production. In addition| it is interesting to remark that all energy requirements were produced by on-site cogeneration boilers using a non-renewable fossil fuel. Several processes were identified as hot spots in this study: medium density fibreboards (MDF) production (with large contribution to ecotoxicity categories)| energy production (with contributions to AD| GW and OD) and finally| the transportation of jute fibres (the main contributor to all the impact categories). Concerning the results from the DfE| the proposed eco-design strategies were evaluated from a technological| economic and social point of view by an interdisciplinary team of researchers and enterprise's workers. The results show that the strategies with more viability of improvement were: reduction of resources used| multifunctional design| substitution of MDF by plywood| substitution of jute fibres| alternatives to the ink| optimization of energy requirement| transport alternatives for the final product and inputs distribution and definition of a protocol for disassembling the product. The results obtained in this work allow forecasting the importance of the chosen raw materials as well as their origin for the environmental burdens associated with the wood-based box manufacture. Future work will focus on the manufacturing of a prototype eco-designed wood-based box. 12777,2011,5,2,Combined dendro-documentary evidence of Central European hydroclimatic springtime extremes over the last millennium,A predicted rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and associated effects on the Earth's climate system likely imply more frequent and severe weather extremes with alternations in hydroclimatic parameters expected to be most critical for ecosystem functioning| agricultural yield| and human health. Evaluating the return period and amplitude of modern climatic extremes in light of pre-industrial natural changes is| however| limited by generally too short instrumental meteorological observations. Here we introduce and analyze 11|873 annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurement series from living and historical fir (Abies alba Mill.) trees sampled across France| Switzerland| Germany| and the Czech Republic| which continuously span the AD 962-2007 period. Even though a dominant climatic driver of European fir growth was not found| ring width extremes were evidently triggered by anomalous variations in Central European April June precipitation. Wet conditions were associated with dynamic low-pressure cells| whereas continental-scale droughts coincided with persistent high-pressure between 35 and 55 degrees N. Documentary evidence independently confirms many of the dendro signals over the past millennium| and further provides insight on causes and consequences of ambient weather conditions related to the reconstructed extremes. A fairly uniform distribution of hydroclimatic extremes throughout the Medieval Climate Anomaly| Little Ice Age and Recent Global Warming may question the common believe that frequency and severity of such events closely relates to climate mean stages. This joint dendro-documentary approach not only allows extreme climate conditions of the industrial era to be placed against the backdrop of natural variations| but also probably helps to constrain climate model simulations over exceptional long timescales. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11614,2011,3,4,Comment on "Indirect land use change for biofuels: Testing predictions and improving analytical methodologies" by Kim and Dale: statistical reliability and the definition of the indirect land use change (iLUC) issue,"Indirect land use change for biofuels: Testing predictions and improving analytical methodologies" by S. Kim and B. Dale [1]| presents a principal inference not supported by its results| that rests on a fundamental conceptual error| and that has no place in the current discussion of biofuels' climate effects. The paper takes correlation between two variables in a system with many interacting factors to indicate (or contraindicate) causation| and draws a completely incorrect inference from observed sample statistics and their significance levels. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11849,2011,3,3,Communities self-sufficient in fuels for humans| transport and electrical needs,In view of the present problems facing the world with respect to fossil fuels (pollution and global warming| availability and price)| the possibility was studied of a small community becoming self-sufficient in sugar| automotive fuel (ethanol) and electricity| all from renewable biomass (sugarcane). The study was carried out| based on a real project that is presently installed on similar lines. The fuel needs of a community of 100|000 people were quantified in terms of sugar| ethanol| and electricity. A mass and energy balance was calculated to determine the amounts of cane and trash needed to produce the sugar| ethanol and electricity by generation and cogeneration. The results showed that 100 t of cane per hour can supply sufficient sugar and electrical energy for a community of 100|000 people and run their cars on 96% (by volume) ethanol (no mix with gasoline) and still be able to export surplus ethanol. The self-sufficiency is for the whole year and not only the crop period. The overall results show that| when compared with the importation of 'fuels'| the project is positive.
3346,2011,2,4,Community ecology in a warming world: The influence of temperature on interspecific interactions in marine systems,Ecological patterns are determined by the interplay between abiotic factors and interactions among species. As the Earth's climate warms| interactions such as competition| predation| and mutualism are changing due to shifts in per capita interaction strength and the relative abundance of interacting species. Changes in interspecific relationships| in turn| can drive important local-scale changes in community dynamics| biodiversity| and ecosystem functioning| and can potentially alter large-scale patterns of distribution and abundance. In many cases| the importance of indirect effects of warming| mediated by changing species interactions| will be greater-albeit less well understood-than direct effects in determining the community-and ecosystem-level outcomes of global climate change. Despite considerable community-specific idiosyncrasy| ecological theory and a growing body of data suggest that certain general trends are emerging at local scales: positive interactions tend to become more prevalent with warming| and top trophic levels are disproportionately vulnerable. In addition| important ecological changes result when the geographic overlap between species changes| and when the seasonal timing of life history events of interacting species falls into or out of synchrony. We assess the degree to which such changes are predictable| and urge advancement on several high priority questions surrounding the relationships between temperature and community ecology. An improved understanding of how assemblages of multiple| interacting species will respond to climate change is imperative if we hope to effectively prepare for and adapt to its effects. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12408,2011,3,4,COMPARATIVE COST ANALYSIS OF PRESSURE EXCHANGER (PX) AND TURBINE TYPE ENERGY RECOVERY DEVICES AT SEAWATER REVERSE OSMOSIS (SWRO) PLANTS,Water is essential for human life and sustainable development. Most of the world agricultural production| hydroelectric power and water supplies depend on the water cycle. Water is scarce and will be scarcer in future due to global warming and increasing population and technology. The purpose of this paper was to compare two widely accepted energy recovery systems used in seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination| which were with either pressure exchanger (PX) or turbine devices| based on cost. Systems were compared based on their first cost and energy consumption costs for different water flow capacities. It was concluded that the system with PX was economically more advantageous than the system with turbine.
11808,2011,3,4,Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Charcoal| Biogas| and Liquefied Petroleum Gas as Cooking Fuels in Ghana,Standard life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology has been used to determine and compare the environmental impacts of three different cooking fuels used in Ghana| namely| charcoal| biogas| and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). A national policy on the use of cooking fuels would have to look at the environmental| social| and cost implications associated with the fuel types. This study looked at the environmental aspect of using these fuels. The results showed that global warming and human toxicity were the most significant overall environmental impacts associated with them| and charcoal and LPG| respectively| made the largest contribution to these impact categories. LPG| however| gave relatively higher impacts in three other categories of lesser significance-that is| eutrophication| freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity| and terrestrial ecotoxicity potentials. Direct comparison of the results showed that biogas had the lowest impact in five out of the seven categories investigated. Charcoal and LPG had only one lowest score each. From the global warming point of view| however| LPG had a slight overall advantage over the others| and it was also the most favorable at the cooking stage| in terms of its effect on humans. 12773,2011,3,3,Comparative study of the performance of the M-cycle counter-flow and cross-flow heat exchangers for indirect evaporative cooling - Paving the path toward sustainable cooling of buildings,This paper provides a comparative study of the performance of cross-flow and counter-flow M-cycle heat exchangers for dew point cooling. It is recognised that evaporative cooling systems offer a low energy alternative to conventional air conditioning units. Recently emerged dew point cooling| as the renovated evaporative cooling configuration| is claimed to have much higher cooling output over the conventional evaporative modes owing to use of the M-cycle heat exchangers. Cross-flow and counter-flow heat exchangers| as the available structures for M-cycle dew point cooling processing| were theoretically and experimentally investigated to identify the difference in cooling effectiveness of both under the parallel structural/operational conditions| optimise the geometrical sizes of the exchangers and suggest their favourite operational conditions. Through development of a dedicated computer model and case-by-case experimental testing and validation| a parametric study of the cooling performance of the counter-flow and cross-flow heat exchangers was carried out. The results showed the counter-flow exchanger offered greater (around 20% higher) cooling capacity| as well as greater (15%-23% higher) dew-point and wet-bulb effectiveness when equal in physical size and under the same operating conditions. The cross-flow system| however| had a greater (10% higher) Energy Efficiency (COP). As the increased cooling effectiveness will lead to reduced air volume flow rate| smaller system size and lower cost| whilst the size and cost are the inherent barriers for use of dew point cooling as the alternation of the conventional cooling systems| the counter-flow system is considered to offer practical advantages over the cross-flow system that would aid the uptake of this low energy cooling alternative. In line with increased global demand for energy in cooling of building| largely by economic booming of emerging developing nations and recognised global warming| the research results will be of significant importance in terms of promoting deployment of the low energy dew point cooling system| helping reduction of energy use in cooling of buildings and cut of the associated carbon emission. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11875,2011,2,4,Comparing demersal fish assemblages between periods of contrasting climate and fishing pressure,Fish communities are dynamic and their structure is known to change over time. Traditionally| these changes were considered to be fisheries-induced| but recent analyses also suggest that global warming could affect the distribution| abundance| and assemblage composition of marine fish. However| disentangling the effects of fisheries and those resulting from climate change is difficult| because both potential drivers act simultaneously. In our study| we distinguished between the effects of fisheries and climate change on the fish assemblage of the southern North Sea by comparing survey catch data for that region during four unique periods throughout the past century| characterized by (i) low fishing pressure during a cold period (1902-1908)| (ii) low fishing pressure during a warm period (1950-1956)| (iii) high fishing pressure during a cold period (1978-1984)| and (iv) high fishing pressure during a warm period (2002-2008). Our analysis indicates that the demersal fish community in the southern North Sea has changed in response to changes in both climate and fishing pressure. Our results suggest both a relatively higher richness of Lusitanian (warm-favouring) species compared with boreal (cool-favouring) species| and a lower mean body size of the fish community during times of warming| independent of fishing pressure. 12550,2011,3,4,Comparing nutritional value and yield as functional units in the environmental assessment of horticultural production with organic or mineral fertilization,We report the environmental assessment of the cultivation cycle of cauliflower (Brassica oleracea L. var. botrytis)| chosen due to its high levels of natural bioactive compounds| using different fertilization practices. The functional units used during the impact assessment were linked with the quantity produced| considering different units of commercialization| or with the cauliflower quality| considering its antioxidant compounds content. Although nutrient content has been described and used as a possible functional unit| using antioxidant compounds as a functional unit has not previously been published. Three cultivation options with similar dosages of total nitrogen were considered: using mineral fertilizers (M) alone or mineral fertilizers plus compost| with a high (C(H)) or a low (C(L)) dosage. During the cultivation period| the soil characteristics and nitrogen and moisture content of the fruit were monitored| and the yield and the fruit size were analyzed. In addition| the glucosinolates and the phenolic compounds (sinapic acid| phenols| and flavonoids) content were assessed for the three options. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to determine the environmental impacts of the whole cauliflower production cycle| including production of mineral and organic fertilizers| fertilizers transport| and crop stage. Commercial yields were higher for cultivation options with M and C(L) than for option C(H)| while higher levels of bioactive compounds were detected in the latter. For C(H) and C(L)| eutrophication| global warming and ozone layer depletion potentials were generally lower and photochemical oxidation potential was always higher than for the M option| regardless of the functional unit. Regarding functional units involving production (yield| fruit and dry matter harvest)| there were higher impacts with the C(H) cultivation option than with M for abiotic depletion| acidification| photochemical oxidation| and cumulative energy demand. When the differences in bioactive compounds content (total sinapic acid derivatives and total phenols) were sufficiently high| this was reversed| with C(H) having lower impacts for all the environmental categories apart from photochemical oxidation and abiotic depletion. The differences in the magnitude of individual environmental impacts between cultivation options| and also the order| were highly dependant on the functional unit considered. When functional units associated with production and total phenols content were considered| the C(H) cultivation option had the highest impact in four out of seven categories| whereas for the functional unit involving sinapic acid content| this cultivation option had the least impact in five out of seven categories. 3243,2011,4,4,Comparison of coincident snow-freeboard and sea ice thickness profiles derived from helicopter-borne laser altimetry and electromagnetic induction sounding,Sea ice thickness plays a critical role in global climate change| but it cannot be measured directly from space. Alternatively| sea ice freeboard is measured and converted to sea ice thickness with assumptions made for snow depth and snow/ice densities. This paper investigates the relationship between snow-freeboard (ice-freeboard plus snow) and total thickness (ice thickness plus snow) and addresses the uncertainties that arise from the unknown snow depth and snow/ice densities. A unique data set of coincident measurements of snow-freeboard and total thickness was collected in the Arctic and Antarctic. Snow-freeboard was determined by laser altimetry| and total thickness was determined by electromagnetic induction with a helicopter-borne instrument. Obtained total thickness/snow-freeboard ratios range from 2 to 12 in the Arctic and from 2 to 8 in the Antarctic. The principal finding is that the ratios vary greatly within each region| and a fixed ratio per profile should not be used| as this can induce incorrect ice thicknesses. The ratio uncertainties can induce a relative thickness error of 5.4% and 4.9% in the first-year and multiyear ice mode. Additionally| the coincident measurements allow the calculation of snow depth that can be used to densify existing in situ measurements. To assess accuracy| calculated snow depths were compared to in situ measurements and agree within +/- 5 cm. This increases if measurements and calculations differ spatially. The method of deriving snow-freeboard from laser altimetry is briefly described| and the variability of the total thickness/snow-freeboard ratio is shown for one profile in the Lincoln Sea and one in the Weddell Sea. 12762,2011,3,4,COMPARISON OF POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ON THE PRODUCTION AND USE OF HIGH AND LOW SULFUR REGULAR DIESEL BY LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT,This paper provides a comparative analysis using the concept of life cycle assessment (LCA)| between high-sulfur (3 000 ppm) and low-sulfur diesel (500 ppm) diesel. The comparative LCA considers the stages of production| transport and oil refining| as well as the transport of refined products and their respective end use. This last stage of the life cycle is important for the analysis of potential environmental impacts| due to sulfur oxide (SOX) emissions| which contribute to the formation of acid rain| damage air quality and the ecosystem (land and water acidification)| causing gradual damage to human health and the environment. Therefore| comparative LCA identifies critical points from the environmental perspective| weighing the contributions of pollutants (NO2| CH4 and CO2) known as greenhouse gases (GHG) and criteria pollutants (CO| SOX| NOXw| VOCs and PM). Simapro 7|2 (R) was used to simulate and evaluate potential environmental impacts generated during the production and use by end consumers of the two fossil fuels. In order to evaluate the impact categories| two methods available in said calculation tool were selected: the first is the IPCC-2007 (GWP-100 years)| which estimates the carbon footprint and the contributions of each stage of the production chain to the "Global Warming" effect. The second method of evaluation is the Impact 2002+| which assesses the various contributions to the categories of toxicity to "Human Health"| "Ecosystem Quality"| "Climate Change" and "Depletion of Natural Resources'. Thus| the preliminary results of comparative LCA show a slight increase in the carbon footprint (total emissions of CO2 equivalent in the productive chain) of low-sulfur diesel| approximately 3|8% compared to high-sulfur diesel| as a result of the increased emissions generated by the operation of the hydrogenation plant. However| low-sulfur diesel achieves a significant reduction of about 80% in comparison with high-sulfur diesel| in terms of damage to "Human Health" and "Ecosystem Quality". On the contrary| there was an increase of 2% and 6% in the categories of "Climate Change" and "Depletion of Natural Resources"| respectively. Finally| despite the minor increase in the carbon footprint| although with remarkable reductions in "Ecosystem Quality" and "Human Health"| the production and use of low-sulfur diesel has a single score of environmental impact equivalent to 0|23 milli points (mPt) compared to the single score obtained by high-sulfur diesel of 1|23 (mPt).
11970,2011,4,4,Comparison of Three Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Best Track Datasets in a Seasonal Context,The quality of tropical cyclone (TC) best track data has increasingly received more attention in climate research in recent years because of the rising interest in the possible effects of global warming on TC activity. In this paper| three best track datasets for the western North Pacific TCs were compared in a seasonal context. Firstly| the statistical characteristics were examined based on their distributions. Then| the potential impact of particular features within the datasets was evaluated by using contrastive cluster analyses. The mean amplitude of the annual cycle in the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) data is largest among the three datasets. The smallest interannual variability helped the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration (CMA-STI) dataset to resist the negative effect of outliers. An inhomogeneity around 2003-2004 was identified in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data by the outliers and was compared with the JMA and CMA-STI data. By using contrastive cluster analyses| the differences among the datasets and some effects related to particular issues| including the representation of the annual cycle| the outliers| and wind conversion were evaluated. The JTWC dataset is affected by outliers and wind conversion among the different average times| whereas the representation of the annual cycle was important for the CMA-STI data. After excluding all the outliers| the results indicated more consistent classifications of the TC annual cycle between the JMA and JTWC data. 11966,2011,2,4,Composition and distribution of the Orthoptera assemblage (Insecta) in an arid basin in North-Central Chile,The Elqui river basin (Coquimbo Region| Chile) is an important fruit-growing and tourist center in the North and Central area of Chile| where climate conditions are characterized by a rise in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Within the context of global warming| the hydrographical basin of the Elqui River is expected to show a rising trend toward aridity| as well as alterations in the phenology of plants and arthropods| and changes in the local biodiversity and richness of ecosystems. In this respect| this research analyzes the taxonomic composition| abundance and distribution of the assemblage of Orthoptera (Insecta) through hand-collecting in rangeland and farmland of the localities of Marquesa| Diaguitas| and Pisco Elqui in the Elqui valley. We documented the taxonomic composition and abundance of the Orthoptera assemblage (Insecta)| and analyzed the spatial distribution of its component species by using SIG. We also documented the potential orthopterans have to become a plague in this arid watershed of North-Central Chile. A total of 204 specimens were captured| belonging to four families and six species| five of which were common to rangeland and farmland. Acrididae was the most abundant and varied family among the study sites (65.2% of the total captured) and Trimerotropis ochraceipennis the most abundant species. The families Gryllidae| Ommexechidae and Tristiridae were represented by only one species. The presence of these species in the rangeland can be a risk factor for agriculture| considering potential irruptive outbreaks under certain climate conditions| and can also cause damage to crops| plantations and grasslands. The relationship between microdistribution of the Orthoptera assemblage present in the Elqui valley and the NDVI index showed a clear preference for dense and not so dense vegetation (NDVI = 0.1 - 0.49). This is a first approach to the study of orthopterans which are considered potential plagues to the Elqui valley. 12631,2011,4,3,Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model,The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations| which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification| an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions| the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple| globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model| which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies| which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation| the atmospheric hydrological cycle| sensible turbulent heat flux| transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes| the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification| the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous distribution of atmospheric water vapor and the non-linear sensitivity of the downward thermal radiation to changes in the atmospheric water vapor concentration partly cause the land-sea contrast and may also contribute to the polar amplification. The combination of these characteristics causes| in general| dry and cold regions to warm more than other regions. 12315,2011,3,4,Conflicts over industrial tree plantations in the South: Who| how and why?,Industrial tree plantations for wood| palm oil and rubber production are among the fastest growing monocultures and are currently being promoted as carbon sinks and energy producers. Such plantations are causing a large number of conflicts between companies and local populations| mostly in the tropics and subtropics. Within a political ecology framework| the present paper investigates the nature of such conflicts as related to the alleged impacts of the plantations| the protesters involved| and the modalities of the conflicts with a special emphasis on their outcomes. Relying on the most comprehensive literature review to date| corresponding to 58 conflict cases| I find that the prominent cause of resistance is related to corporate control over land resulting in displacements and the end of local uses of ecosystems as they are replaced by monocultures. Resistance includes the "weapons of the weak" and ranges from dialogue to direct confrontation and from local to international. It often involves NGOs| especially for legal issues. Demonstrations| lawsuits| road blockades and tree uprooting have been reported in several countries. Authorities have responded by repression in about half of the cases analysed| while popular struggles have been able to stop plantations in about one fifth| mainly through winning lawsuits or massive social unrest. While these movements can be regarded as classical land conflicts| they usually also have an ecological content| corresponding to forms of the "environmentalism of the poor". The documented large number of such conflicts suggests that policies promoting large-scale tree plantations should be reappraised. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11670,2011,4,4,Consequences of changes in thermal regime for plankton diversity and trait composition in a polymictic lake: a matter of temporal scale,1. Changes in plankton species diversity and community structure as a result of global warming are of growing concern in ecological studies| as these properties contribute substantially to key ecosystem processes. 2. We analysed the effect of short-term temperature rise and changes in the thermal regime during summer on plankton diversity of the eutrophic and polymictic Muggelsee in Germany| from 26 years of summer records (1982-2007). We tested for changes in community properties| such as species richness| evenness and population size of phyto- and zooplankton| during alternating periods of thermal stratification and mixing| which were between 2 and 8 weeks long. Moreover| we tested for overall long-term temporal trends in annual averages of the community properties during stratified and mixed events. 3. We found that the overall number of stratification events increased significantly across the study period. When the lake was stratified| consistently higher surface water temperatures and lower epilimnetic nutrient concentrations were found. As the length of thermal stratification increased| the phytoplankton shifted towards a higher proportion of buoyant cyanobacteria capable of N-fixation (Aphanizomenon| Anabaena). Diatoms were at a disadvantage because of high temperature| exceeding their upper lethal limit and sedimentation losses. Zooplankton species with high thermal tolerances (i.e. Thermocyclops oithonoides| Thermocyclops crassus) and/or those that grow quickly at high temperatures (i.e. rotifers) became more common. 4. During periods of continuous mixing| the community remained largely unchanged| except for some minor increase in the biomass of diatoms. 5. While a noticeable shift towards N-fixing cyanobacteria was observed with increasing length of stratified events| and rotifers and copepods became the main predators| there were minimal changes in diversity| except for an increase in cyclopoid copepods and a decrease in diatom diversity. As for cyanobacteria| the net short-term effect on their diversity was neutral as a result of species replacements. In the long term| however| the diversity of cyanobacteria and cladocerans declined while that of rotifers increased. 6. Overall| our study presents a cautionary example of how we might fail to foresee the impact of climate-induced changes on ecosystem processes if we restrict our studies to seasonal or yearly temporal scales| thus neglecting the impact of substantial changes operating at smaller temporal scales. 11901,2011,2,4,Conservation planning under climate change: Toward accounting for uncertainty in predicted species distributions to increase confidence in conservation investments in space and time,Climate warming challenges our approach to building systems of protected areas because it is likely to drive accelerating shifts in species distributions| and the projections of those future species distributions are uncertain. There are several important sources of uncertainty intrinsic to using species occurrence projections for reserve system design including uncertainty in the number of occurrences captured by any reserve selection solution| and uncertainty arising from the different approaches used to fit predictive models. Here we used the present and future predicted distributions of Iberian herptiles to analyze how dynamics and uncertainty in species distributions may affect decisions about resource allocation for conservation in space and time. We identified priority areas maximizing coverage of current and future (2020 and 2080) predicted distributions of 65 species| under "Mild" and "Severe" uncertainty. Next| we applied a return-on-investment analysis to quantify and make explicit trade-offs between investing in areas selected when optimizing for different times and with different uncertainty levels. Areas identified as important for conservation in every time frame and uncertainty level were the ones considered to be robust climate adaptation investments| and included chiefly already protected areas. Areas identified only under "Mild" uncertainty were considered good candidates for investment if extra resources are available and were mainly located in northern Iberia. However| areas selected only in the "Severe" uncertainty case should not be completely disregarded as they may become climatic refugia for some species. Our study provides an objective methodology to deliver "no regrets" conservation investments. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3400,2011,2,4,Conserving the diversity of Ontario tree species under multiple uncertain climatic futures,In an environment of uncertain climatic change| there is an urgent need to develop robust reserve networks| i.e.| networks that conserve species across multiple climatic futures. Using climatic envelopes based on multiple future climatic scenarios| we first estimate the impacts that these scenarios might have on the distributions of 63 native tree species in the Province of Ontario. Next| an optimization model is applied to expand an existing system of reserves in this province by determining the minimum number of optimal locations for additional reserves both with and without the need for migration. The optimization model formulated differs from previous work in that it meets the need for present and future distributions to occur in the same reserve and accommodates multiple differing climate change scenarios rather than a single scenario. The reserve selection approach described here can be applied anywhere that species' distributions and environmental grids are available. Although this approach is designed to produce a robust solution to the uncertainties over future climatic scenarios| it does not eliminate these uncertainties because the proposed solutions inherit the uncertainties of the global climate change models. 11619,2011,2,4,Consistent Changes in the Sea Ice Seasonal Cycle in Response to Global Warming,The Northern Hemisphere sea ice cover has diminished rapidly in recent years and is projected to continue to diminish in the future. The year-to-year retreat of Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is faster in summer than winter| which has been identified as one of the most striking features of satellite observations as well as of state-of-the-art climate model projections. This is typically understood to imply that the sea ice cover is most sensitive to climate forcing in summertime| and previous studies have explained this by calling on factors such as the surface albedo feedback. In the Southern Hemisphere| however| it is the wintertime sea ice extent that retreats fastest in climate model projections. Here| it is shown that the interhemispheric differences in the model projections can be attributed to differences in coastline geometry| which constrain where sea ice can occur. After accounting for coastline geometry| it is found that the sea ice changes simulated in both hemispheres in most climate models are consistent with sea ice retreat being fastest in winter in the absence of landmasses. These results demonstrate that| despite the widely differing rates of ice retreat among climate model projections| the seasonal structure of the sea ice retreat is robust among the models and is uniform in both hemispheres. 12636,2011,2,4,Consistent flowering response to global warming by European plants introduced into North America,1. The reliability of species distribution models (SDM) to predict the probable response of alien plants to climate change rests on the assumption that plant performance in relation to temperature in the introduced range will be similar to that observed in the native range. Yet| alien plants may exhibit enhanced performance or different environment-distribution relationships following their introduction into a new area. Empirical data are therefore essential to test whether the responsiveness of species to climate is equivalent in the native and introduced ranges. 2. This study tests the assumption that phenological responses of plants to temperature are similar in both their native and introduced range. First flowering date (FFD) is widely used to assess the responsiveness of plants to recent warming arising from global change. For 19 species native to Europe| FFD observed in both the UK and USA between 1970 and 2000 was examined in relation to interannual variation in local temperatures. General trends| variability and responsiveness of FFD to warming were examined for consistency in the contrasting climate of Oxfordshire and Washington DC. 3. Mean FFD in Oxfordshire was a powerful predictor of the same variable in Washington DC| although summer flowering plants in Oxfordshire tended to flower earlier in the season in Washington DC. FFD varied considerably over 30 years| but across all species| the range in FFD revealed a similar trend in both regions with larger ranges observed for earlier flowering species. 4. Comparable trends were found between Oxfordshire and Washington DC in the degree to which flowering advanced or regressed per unit temperature increase. In response to warming| the majority of species flowered earlier in both countries and the degree to which FFD responded to increasing temperature was greatest for species flowering earlier in the year. 5. These equivalent phenological responses to temperature across continents imply prediction of the performance of alien plants under climate change may be derived from a species' behaviour in its native range. While these findings support the use of SDM| they also indicate that these models could be significantly improved through the integration of phenological relationships parameterized from data in the native range. 3288,2011,2,4,Constant proportion harvest policies: Dynamic implications in the Pacific halibut and Atlantic cod fisheries,Overfishing| pollution and other environmental factors have greatly reduced commercially valuable stocks of fish. In a 2006 Science article| a group of ecologists and economists warned that the world may run out of seafood from natural stocks if overfishing continues at current rates. In this paper| we explore the interaction between a constant proportion harvest policy and recruitment dynamics. We examine the discrete-time constant proportion harvest policy discussed in Ang et al. (2009) and then expand the framework to include stock-recruitment functions that are compensatory and overcompensatory| both with and without the Allee effect. We focus on constant proportion policies (CPPs). CPPs have the potential to stabilize complex overcompensatory stock dynamics| with or without the Allee effect| provided the rates of harvest stay below a threshold. If that threshold is exceeded. CPPs are known to result in the sudden collapse of a fish stock when stock recruitment exhibits the Allee effect. In case studies| we analyze CPPs as they might be applied to Gulf of Alaska Pacific halibut fishery and the Georges Bank Atlantic cod fishery based on harvest rates from 1975 to 2007. The best fit models suggest that| under high fishing mortalities| the halibut fishery is vulnerable to sudden population collapse while the cod fishery is vulnerable to steady decline to zero. The models also suggest that CPP with mean harvesting levels from the last 30 years can be effective at preventing collapse in the halibut fishery| but these same policies would lead to steady decline to zero in the Atlantic cod fishery. We observe that the likelihood of collapse in both fisheries increases with increased stochasticity (for example| weather variability) as predicted by models of global climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 11729,2011,4,2,Constraints of fossil fuels depletion on global warming projections,A scientific debate is in progress about the intersection of climate change with the new field of fossil fuels depletion geology. Here| new projections of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and global-mean temperature change are presented| should fossil fuels be exploited at a rate limited by geological availability only. The present work starts from the projections of fossil energy use| as obtained from ten independent sources. From such projections an upper bound| a lower bound and an ensemble mean profile for fossil CO(2) emissions until 2200 are derived. Using the coupled gas-cycle/climate model MAGICC| the corresponding climatic projections out to 2200 are obtained. We find that CO(2) concentration might increase up to about 480 ppm (445-540 ppm)| while the global-mean temperature increase w.r.t. 2000 might reach 1.2 degrees C (0.9-1.6 degrees C). However| future improvements of fossil fuels recovery and discoveries of new resources might lead to higher emissions; hence our climatic projections are likely to be underestimated. In the absence of actions of emissions reduction| a level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system might be already experienced toward the middle of the 21st century| despite the constraints imposed by the exhaustion of fossil fuels. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12319,2011,4,4,CONTINUOUS SURFACE TEMPERATURE MONITORING TO ESTIMATE SENSIBLE HEAT LOSS BY BUILDING FINISHES,This paper proposes a novel technique| Continuous Surface Temperature Monitoring (CSTM)| that uses infrared technology to estimate the sensible heat (SH) transfer between building finishes materials and the surrounding environment without knowing the physical and thermal properties of the tested materials. It is critical to study the contribution of heat transferred by building fabrics to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect because of the increasing threat of global warming. One method to investigate this is to measure the SH loss of building fabrics. Its magnitude is the product of object's mass| m| its specific heat| c| and its temperature change| T. In this study| CSTM estimates the cooling curves of four building finishes tiles: concrete| marble| clay| and ceramic. The results are quite satisfactory in that there is only 11.86% error between the SH calculated by the formal Sensible eat equation (mc Delta T) and the CSTM technique. The study also shows that clay tiles have the highest SH loss per unit volume to the surrounding environment| and the optimal parameter settings for the technique are discussed. 11625,2011,2,2,Contrasting calcification responses to ocean acidification between two reef foraminifers harboring different algal symbionts,Ocean acidification| which like global warming is an outcome of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions| severely impacts marine calcifying organisms| especially those living in coral reef ecosystems. However| knowledge about the responses of reef calcifiers to ocean acidification is quite limited| although coral responses are known to be generally negative. In a culture experiment with two algal symbiont-bearing| reef-dwelling foraminifers| Amphisorus kudakajimensis and Calcarina gaudichaudii| in seawater under five different pCO(2) conditions| 245| 375| 588| 763 and 907 mu atm| maintained with a precise pCO(2)-controlling technique| net calcification of A. kudakajimensis was reduced under higher pCO(2)| whereas calcification of C. gaudichaudii generally increased with increased pCO(2). In another culture experiment conducted in seawater in which bicarbonate ion concentrations were varied under a constant carbonate ion concentration| calcification was not significantly different between treatments in Amphisorus hemprichii| a species closely related to A. kudakajimensis| or in C. gaudichaudii. From these results| we concluded that carbonate ion and CO(2) were the carbonate species that most affected growth of Amphisorus and Calcarina| respectively. The opposite responses of these two foraminifer genera probably reflect different sensitivities to these carbonate species| which may be due to their different symbiotic algae. Citation: Hikami| M.| H. Ushie| T. Irie| K. Fujita| A. Kuroyanagi| K. Sakai| Y. Nojiri| A. Suzuki| and H. Kawahata (2011)| Contrasting calcification responses to ocean acidification between two reef foraminifers harboring different algal symbionts| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L19601| doi: 10.1029/2011GL048501. 3314,2011,2,4,Contrasting diurnal variations in soil organic carbon decomposition and root respiration due to a hysteresis effect with soil temperature in a Gossypium s. (cotton) plantation,To understand the characteristics of the diurnal variation in soil respiration and its response to temperature| we used root exclusion plots| and buried CO(2) sensors in situ during the late growing season in northwestern China. Soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition and root respiration dynamics were quantified. In our study| we found that the diurnal variations in root respiration and soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition showed a contrasting diurnal pattern. SOC decomposition peaked in the afternoon and was in phase with an increase in soil temperature at 10 cm; whereas root respiration decreased from similar to 08:00-09:00 and was minimal at similar to 17:00-18:00 despite an increase in soil temperature. Furthermore| an exponential function explained the diurnal variation in total soil respiration and SOC decomposition (r(2) > 0.6| n = 504)| but not so for root respiration (r(2) < 0.3| n = 504). The fitted Q (10) value of 4.3 for SOC decomposition was significantly higher than the Q (10) value of 3.1 for root respiration. This result suggested that the root respiration rate had a different temperature sensitivity to the microbial respiration rate. In addition| we observed a significant (p < 0.001) clockwise hysteretic effect for SOC decomposition with respect to soil temperature at 10 cm over a 24 h period| with higher rates when soil temperature was increasing and lower rates when soil temperature was decreasing. By contrast| the diurnal hysteresis in root respiration with soil temperature at 10 cm was always counter-clockwise| with lower rates when soil temperature was increasing than when soil temperature was decreasing. This study emphasizes that root respiration and SOC decomposition have different responses to changing soil temperature. Therefore| modeling the impact of global climate change on soil carbon efflux should consider simultaneously| but separately| the impact of the two components. 12534,2011,2,4,Contribution of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration to soil CO(2) efflux in Chinese fir plantations,Soil respiration (R(s)) is overwhelmingly the sum of autotrophic respiration (R(a)| root and rhizosphere) and heterotrophic respiration (R(h)| microbes and soil fauna). Separating R(s) into R(a) and R(h) components is a major challenge but necessary for understanding the implications of environmental change on soil C cycling and sequestration. In this study| a trenching method was employed to partition R(s) sources in Chinese fir plantations in Southern China. Soil CO(2) efflux (FCO(2)) rates were measured using an infrared gas analyser system with soil chambers at the trenched and untrenched (Control) plots from January 2007 to December 2008. Soil temperature (T(soil)) and soil water content (W(soil)) were also measured at the plots during the study period. The results showed that the mean soil FCO(2) rate from trenched plots (0.88 +/- 0.12 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)| mean +/- s.e.) was significantly lower than that from untrenched plots (1.22 +/- 0.18 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)) (P < 0.001) during the study period. Compared with R(a)| R(h) made a major contribution to annual flux ofRs in Chinese fir forests. The relative proportion of R(h) to R(s) averaged 76 and 69% in 2007 and 2008| respectively. The seasonal changes of R(a) to R(s) ratio ranged from 13 to 56% with a mean of 33%. The annual mean R(s) was 455 +/- 249 gCm(-2) year(-1) in the study site for the study period| of which R(h) and R(a) were 330 +/- 219 and 125 +/- 65 gCm(-2) year(-1)| respectively. Both R(s) and R(h) was strongly correlated with T(soil) at a 5-cm depth| while R(a) had no relationship with T(soil). Temporal variation in W(soil) had little effect on R(s) and R(h). The results indicated that the fluxes of R(a) and R(h) were controlled by different factors and the microbial communities| compared with roots| were likely more sensitive to global warming in affecting soil C fluxes in Chinese fir ecosystems in subtropical regions. 12377,2011,4,5,Contribution of changing galactic cosmic ray flux to global warming,The well established excellent correlation between low-level clouds and primary cosmic ray intensity| which act as nuclei for cloud condensation| clearly shows that a decrease in primary cosmic ray intensity results in lesser low cloud cover. Reduced albedo radiation reflected back into space| due to lesser low cloud cover| results in an increase in the surface temperature on the earth. Extrapolation of the intensity of galactic cosmic radiation using (10)Be measurements in deep polar ice as the proxy| clearly shows that the primary cosmic ray intensity has decreased by 9% during the last 150 years| due to the continuing increase in solar activity. We present evidence to show that the radiative forcing component due to the decrease in primary cosmic ray intensity during the last 150 years is 1.1 Wm(-2)| which is about 60% of that due to CO(2) increase. We conclude that the future prediction of global warming presented by IPCC4 requires a relook to take into the effect due to long-term changes in the galactic cosmic ray intensity. 12448,2011,3,4,Contribution of natural and drained wetland systems to carbon stocks| CO(2)| N(2)O| and CH(4) fluxes: an Australian perspective,Greenhouse gas (GHG) flux from wetland systems| both in their natural state and following drainage| has not been well accounted for in the carbon accounting process. We review GHG production from both natural and drained wetlands| and estimate the likely GHG emissions from these systems in Australia. Only a small number of studies have quantified GHG emissions from undisturbed Australian wetland environments. Consequently| in order to estimate GHG flux for Australia| it was necessary to collate data collected overseas from similar climatic zones. Using this approach| it appears that undisturbed| vegetated wetlands in Australia are likely to be net GHG sinks| with the greatest rates of sequestration occurring in mangrove ecosystems (-2669 g CO(2)-e/m(2).year) where biomass production is high but CH(4) emissions are limited by salinity. The uncertainty surrounding these values is high| however| due to (a) the low number of measurements from Australia| (b) the low number of measurements for CO(2) flux| and (c) the low number of studies where all GHGs have been measured concurrently. It was estimated that the drainage of melaleuca and mangrove forest wetlands in Australia would turn them from carbon sinks into carbon sources| and that in the first 50 years since drainage| this has increased global warming potential by 1149 Tg CO(2)-e or 23 Tg CO(2)-e/year. This is significant given that GHG emissions due to land-use change in 2007 totalled 77.1 Tg CO(2)-e. However| data surrounding the area of wetlands drained| carbon stocks in drained wetlands| and the effect of drainage on CH(4) and N(2)O flux are limited| making the uncertainty surrounding these estimates high. Further study is clearly required if Australia wishes to accurately incorporate wetland systems into national carbon and greenhouse gas accounting budgets. 12540,2011,3,2,Control of Methane Emission in Ruminants and Industrial Application of Biogas from Livestock Manure in Korea,Methane is known to be one of the major greenhouse gases. On a global scale| livestock farming may contribute 18% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Though methane contribution is less than 2% of all the factors leading to global warming| it plays an important role because it is 21 times more effective than carbon dioxide. Methane emission is a direct result of the fermentation process performed by ruminal microorganisms and| in particular| the archael methanogens. Reducing methane emission would benefit both ruminant production and the environment. Methane generation can be reduced by electron-sink metabolic pathways to dispose of the reducing moieties. An alternative way for methane control in the rumen is to apply inhibitors against methanogens. Generating methane from manure has considerable merit because it appears to offer at least a partial solution to two pressing problems-environmental crisis and energy shortage. An obvious benefit from methane production is the energy value of the gas itself. Control of methane emission by rumen microbes in Korea has mainly been focused on application of various chemicals| such as BES and PMDI| that inhibit the growth and activity of methanogens in the rumen. Alternatives were to apply long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids and oils with or without organic acids (malate and fumarate). The results for trials with methane reducing agents and the situation of biogas production industries and a typical biogas plant in Korea will be introduced here. (Key Words : Methane| Methanogens| Ruminants| Biogas| Livestock Manure)
3216,2011,2,2,Convergence of atmospheric and North Atlantic carbon dioxide trends on multidecadal timescales,Oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide substantially reduces the rate at which anthropogenic carbon accumulates in the atmosphere(1)| slowing global climate change. Some studies suggest that the rate at which the oceans take up carbon has significantly decreased in recent years(2-8). Others suggest that decadal variability confounds the detection of long-term trends(9-11). Here| we examine trends in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the surface waters of three large biogeographic regions in the North Atlantic| using observational data collected between 1981 and 2009. We compare these oceanic observations with trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels| taken from a global observational network. We show that trends in oceanic carbon dioxide concentrations are variable on a decadal timescale| often diverging from trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However| when the entire 29-year period is considered| oceanic trends converge with atmospheric trends in all three regions; it takes 25 years for this long-term trend to emerge and overcome the influence of decadal-scale variability. Furthermore| in the southernmost biome| the data suggest that warming-driven by a multidecadal climate oscillation and anthropogenic forcing(12|13)-has started to reduce oceanic uptake of carbon in recent years. 11893,2011,2,4,Copula-Based Analysis of Hydrological Extremes and Implications of Hydrological Behaviors in the Pearl River Basin| China,It is believed that the currently increasing temperature| also known as global warming| has altered the hydrological cycle and thus the hydrometeorological extremes become frequent. In this study| the authors analyze hydrological extremes defined by 7-day high flow and low flow of the Pearl River Basin by using a copula family. The results indicate that the concurrent occurrence of extreme high and low flow is of small probability. It implies that the probability is small that the lower Pearl River Basin is attacked by heavy droughts or floods because of the combined effects of high or low flow of the two major tributaries of the Pearl River| i.e.| the West and North Rivers. Therefore| the authors can conclude that the joint probability of hydrological extremes of two tributaries of a river basin could be small| albeit the occurrence of hydrological extremes of an individual river is of large probability. Besides| the results of this study also reveal increasing 7-day low flow in winter| which should be because of seasonal shifts of precipitation on the basis of the previous studies. The results of this study mean much for the sound human understanding of statistical behaviors of hydrological extremes in humid regions| and also for effective water resource management and development of human mitigation to the natural hazards in the changing environment. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000350. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers. 11711,2011,2,4,Coral and mollusc resistance to ocean acidification adversely affected by warming,Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentrations are expected to decrease surface ocean pH by 0.3-0.5 units by 2100 (refs 1|2)| lowering the carbonate ion concentration of surface waters. This rapid acidification is predicted to dramatically decrease calcification in many marine organisms(3|4). Reduced skeletal growth under increased CO(2) levels has already been shown for corals| molluscs and many other marine organisms(4-9). The impact of acidification on the ability of individual species to calcify has remained elusive| however| as measuring net calcification fails to disentangle the relative contributions of gross calcification and dissolution rates on growth. Here| we show that corals and molluscs transplanted along gradients of carbonate saturation state at Mediterranean CO(2) vents are able to calcify and grow at even faster than normal rates when exposed to the high CO(2) levels projected for the next 300 years. Calcifiers remain at risk| however| owing to the dissolution of exposed shells and skeletons that occurs as pH levels fall. Our results show that tissues and external organic layers play a major role in protecting shells and skeletons from corrosive sea water| limiting dissolution and allowing organisms to calcify(10|11). Our combined field and laboratory results demonstrate that the adverse effects of global warming are exacerbated when high temperatures coincide with acidification. 12255,2011,2,2,Coral reef ecosystems and anthropogenic climate change,Coral reef ecosystems are among the most biologically diverse ecosystems on the planet. In addition to their value in terms of biodiversity| coral reefs provide food and resources for over 500 million people. Despite their importance| coral reefs are declining at a rapid rate (1-2% per year) as a result of a range of local (e.g.| overexploitation of fisheries| declining water quality) and global (e.g.| global warming and ocean acidification) drivers. Extensive experimental and field evidence suggests that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 450 ppm will lead to the loss of coral-dominated reef systems| with the prospect that dangerous levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide for coral reefs were exceeded in 1979 when mass coral bleaching was reported for the first time. The exact response of coral reefs remains uncertain although it is highly unlikely that coral-dominated reef systems will be present in future oceans at the current rate of warming and acidification of the world's tropical oceans. The loss of these important coastal ecosystems will diminish the resources available to hundreds of millions of people along tropical coastlines. Understanding the impacts on people and industry is an imperative if we are to devise effective systems by which tropical coastal communities are to adapt to rapidly changing tropical coastal environments. Our current understanding of these important issues| however| is in a relatively undeveloped state and must be a priority of future research. 12028,2011,2,4,Coral reproduction in the world's warmest reefs: southern Persian Gulf (Dubai| United Arab Emirates),Despite extensive research on coral reproduction from numerous geographic locations| there remains limited knowledge within the Persian Gulf. Given that corals in the Persian Gulf exist in one of the most stressful environments for reef corals| with annual variations in sea surface temperature (SST) of 12A degrees C and maximum summer mean SSTs of 36A degrees C| understanding coral reproductive biology in the Gulf may provide clues as to how corals may cope with global warming. In this study| we examined six locally common coral species on two shallow reef sites in Dubai| United Arab Emirates (UAE)| in 2008 and 2009 to investigate the patterns of reproduction| in particular the timing and synchrony of spawning. In total| 71% colonies in April 2008 and 63% colonies in April 2009 contained mature oocytes. However| the presence of mature gametes in May indicated that spawning was potentially split between April and May in all species. These results demonstrate that coral reproduction patterns within this region are highly seasonal and that multi-species spawning synchrony is highly probable. Acropora downingi| Cyphastrea microphthalma and Platygyra daedalea were all hermaphroditic broadcast spawners with a single annual gametogenic cycle. Furthermore| fecundity and mature oocyte sizes were comparable to those in other regions. We conclude that the reproductive biology of corals in the southern Persian Gulf is similar to other regions| indicating that these species have adapted to the extreme environmental conditions in the southern Persian Gulf. 3225,2011,4,4,Coral skeletal carbon isotopes (delta(13)C and Delta(14)C) record the delivery of terrestrial carbon to the coastal waters of Puerto Rico,Tropical small mountainous rivers deliver a poorly quantified| but potentially significant| amount of carbon to the world's oceans. However| few historical records of land-ocean carbon transfer exist for any region on Earth. Corals have the potential to provide such records| because they draw on dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) for calcification. In temperate systems| the stable- (delta(13)C) and radiocarbon (Delta(14)C) isotopes of coastal DIC are influenced by the delta(13)C and Delta(14)C of the DIC transported from adjacent rivers. A similar pattern should exist in tropical coastal DIC and hence coral skeletons. Here| delta(13)C and Delta(14)C measurements were made in a 56-year-old Montastraea faveolata coral growing similar to 1 km from the mouth of the Rio Fajardo in eastern Puerto Rico. Additionally| the delta(13)C and Delta(14)C values of the DIC of the Rio Fajardo and its adjacent coastal waters were measured during two wet and dry seasons. Three major findings were observed: (1) synchronous depletions of both delta(13)C and Delta(14)C in the coral skeleton are annually coherent with the timing of peak river discharge| (2) riverine DIC was always more depleted in delta(13)C and Delta(14)C than seawater DIC| and (3) the correlation of delta(13)C and Delta(14)C was the same in both coral skeleton and the DIC of the river and coastal waters. These results indicate that coral skeletal delta(13)C and Delta(14)C are recording the delivery of riverine DIC to the coastal ocean. Thus| coral records could be used to develop proxies of historical land-ocean carbon flux for many tropical regions. Such information could be invaluable for understanding the role of tropical land-ocean carbon flux in the context of land-use change and global climate change. 12191,2011,3,3,Correlation of COD and BOD of Domestic Wastewater with the Power Output of Bioreactor,This research article deals with the studies on the development of the correlation of COD| BOD| and BOD(5) of domestic wastewater (DWW)| and fermented domestic wastewater (FDWW) with the power output of the microbial fuel cell (MFC). The fermentation of DWW was carried out with yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae)| and yogurt bacteria (Streptococcus lactis) to produce biohydrogen which was converted to the electrical energy through the development of microbial fuel cell (MFC). The values of COD| BOD| and BOD(5) for yogurt fermented domestic wastewater (Yogurt-FDWW) were found to be greater than the values of yeast fermented domestic wastewater (Yeast-FDWW). The power output of DWW and FDWW was increased with the increase in COD| BOD and BOD(5) values. The main objective of this article is to develop the renewable alternative of fossil fuels which are the major cause of global warming and global pollution.
12075,2011,4,4,Correlation of green house molecules with global and surface temperature and its effect on environment,A critical analysis has been made on contribution to green house molecules on global warming and surface air temperature rise. The nature of yearly variations of concentrations of green house molecules and global and surface temperature has been presented. Climate change| environmental and economic effects are briefly mentioned. Various diseases caused by global warming are also discussed. 12531,2011,2,4,Correlations between environmental factors and toxic and non-toxic Microcystis dynamics during bloom in Daechung Reservoir| Korea,While it has been known that toxic and non-toxic Microcystis coexist in lakes and their relative proportions vary depending on environmental factors| the main driving force for such variations is still unclear. Therefore| this study attempted to verify the environmental factors related to the dynamics of the abundance of toxic and non-toxic Microcystis in the Daechung Reservoir| Korea. Water samples were collected at weekly intervals from June to October| 2006. Microcystis was a dominant cyanobacterial genus during this period. The proportion of toxic Microcystis genotypes was quantified using a real-time PCR with 2 primer sets for the cpcBA-IGS and mcyJ genes to determine the total Microcystis and potentially toxic genotypes| respectively. Cell densities of toxic and non-toxic Microcystis were strongly related| implying that their growth may be governed by the same environmental factors. Although nontoxic Microcystis was generally dominant over potentially toxic genotypes| the toxic proportion briefly predominated during the Microcystis bloom. While the phosphorus concentration was the fundamental regulating factor for cyanobacterial proliferation| the proportion changes of potentially toxic Microcystis genotypes were more closely related with the water temperature (P < 0.01)| suggesting that eutrophication together with global warming could lead to more frequent toxic blooms. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11961,2011,4,4,Cosmic rays and global warming,It has been claimed by others that observed temporal correlations of terrestrial cloud cover with `the cosmic ray intensity' are causal. The possibility arises| therefore| of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true| the implications would be very great. We have examined this claim to look for evidence to corroborate it. So far we have not found any and so our tentative conclusions are to doubt it. Such correlations as appear are more likely to be due to the small variations in solar irradiance| which| of course| correlate with cosmic rays. We estimate that less than 15% of the 11-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2% of the warming over the last 35 years is due to this cause. 11988,2011,3,4,Could Impact Fees Be Used for CO(2) Mitigation?,Development impact fees are an effective way for communities to recoup some of the costs of growth. Typically| they have been used to raise revenues to help pay for new capital spending. In this paper| the possibility of using impact fees to help offset the costs of additional carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions that are caused by growth is explored. After briefly summarizing the problem of CO(2) pollution| the author identifies eight issues that make a CO(2) impact fee unique| and which would likely be confronted by a community attempting to implement such a fee. The author concludes by organizing these issues by whether they pose primarily a legal| practical| and/or political challenge. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000053. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers. 12321,2011,4,1,Coupled climate-society modeling of a realistic scenario to achieve a sustainable Earth,A conceptual model was developed to project the global warming for this century. This model incorporated several important factors associated with the climate and society. Under the forcing of anthropogenic carbon dioxide| the climate system is represented by a global mean surface air temperature (SAT) and carbon storage| which is separated into the atmosphere| land and oceans. The SAT rises due to the atmospheric carbon| which is partially absorbed by the terrestrial ecosystem and the ocean. These absorption rates are reduced by the rising SAT. The anthropogenic carbon dioxide is emitted by society| which is described by global energy production (P) and energy efficiency/carbon intensity (E)| yielding a rate of P/E. P consists of the energy production per capita (H) and the population (M) in developed countries and regions| P = H 9 M. These society components were set to grow| based on the historical record from the last 50 years| while societal incentives to reduce the growth rate H and to increase E in proportion to the increase in SAT were introduced. It is shown that| among the basic scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) for this century| medium-level carbon emission-where the growth rate of H is reduced by 30% and E is doubled| with 1 degrees C of warming-could be achieved. Until the end of this century| both the terrestrial ecosystem and the oceans act as sinks. If societal incentives are eliminated| carbon emission approaches the upper limit considered in the SRES scenarios| and the terrestrial ecosystem changes into a source of carbon dioxide. Since H and E are closely related to lifestyle and technology| respectively| individuals in the developed countries are urged to change their lifestyles| and institutions need to develop low-carbon technologies and spread them to developing countries. When society achieves medium-level carbon emission for a couple of centuries| oceanic absorption was found to become more crucial than terrestrial absorption| so oceanic behavior has to be estimated more accurately. 12813,2011,5,3,Coupled high-resolution marine and terrestrial records of carbon and hydrologic cycles variations during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM),The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum is characterized by a massive perturbation of the global carbon cycle reflected in a large| negative carbon isotope excursion associated with rapid global warming and changes in the hydrologic system. The magnitude of the carbon isotope excursion from terrestrial carbonates and organic carbon is generally larger relative to marine carbonates. However| high-resolution marine and terrestrial isotopic records from the same locality for direct comparison are limited. Here we present coupled carbon isotope records from terrestrial biomarkers (delta(13)C(n-alkane))| marine bulk carbonates (delta(13)C(carbonate))| and bulk organic carbon (delta(13)C(organic)) from the continuous sedimentary record of the Forada section in northern Italy in order to evaluate the magnitude and phase relationships between terrestrial and marine environments. Consistent with previous reports| we find that the carbon isotope excursion established from delta(13)C(n-alkane) values is more negative than those established from delta(13)C(carbonate) and delta(13)C(organic) values. In contrast to the majority of PETM records| all Forada delta(13)C records show a sharp (13)C-enrichment immediately following the onset of the carbon isotope excursion. Further| the terrestrial delta(13)C(n-alkane) record lags delta(13)C(carbonate)/delta(13)C(organic) trends by similar to 4-5 kyr-offsets that reflect the long residence time of soil organic carbon. Hydrogen isotope records from higher-plant leaf waxes (delta D(n-alkane)) and sea-surface temperatures (TEX(86)) were established to assess hydrologic and ocean temperature trends. We find delta D(n-alkane) values trend more positive| associated with higher temperatures prior to the onset of the carbon isotope excursion| and conclude that regional changes in the hydrologic cycle likely occurred before the onset of the carbon isotope anomaly. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12372,2011,2,4,Crop responses to temperature and precipitation according to long-term multi-location trials at high-latitude conditions,Global warming has accelerated in recent decades and the years 1995-2006 were the warmest ever recorded. Also| in Finland| the last decade has been exceptionally warm. Hence| this study examines how current field crop cultivars| adapted to northern long-day conditions and short growing seasons| have responded to the elevated temperatures| especially with regard to determination of yield potential and quality. These comparisons were carried out with spring and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)| oats (Avena sativa L.)| barley (Hordeum vulgare L.)| winter rye (Secale cereale L.)| pea (Pisum sativum L.) and rapeseed (turnip rape| Brassica rapa L. and oilseed rape| B. napus L.). Long-term data sets of MTT Official Variety Trials and the Finnish Meteorological Institute were used to study crop responses to precipitation and elevated temperatures at different growth phases. The MTT data sets were also grouped into experiments that could be considered typical of the temperature conditions in the period 1971-2000 seasons (termed '1985' conditions) or typical of the period 2010-39 (termed '2025'). At elevated temperatures| yields generally declined in these relatively cool growing conditions of northern Europe| except for pea. Elevated temperatures tended to have negative effects both in the pre- and post-anthesis phases| but the response depended on species. The response was probably associated with reduced water availability| which limited yield determination| especially in early growth phases. For example| in spring cereals a decrease in early summer precipitation by 10 mm decreased yields by 45-75 kg/ha. As warmer conditions also typically hastened development and growth in such generally cool growing conditions of Finland| it is essential that breeding programmes produce cultivars that are less sensitive to elevated temperatures| which are likely to become more frequent in future. 3201,2011,2,4,Cryptic biodiversity loss linked to global climate change,Global climate change (GCC) significantly affects distributional patterns of organisms(1)| and considerable impacts on biodiversity are predicted for the next decades. Inferred effects include large-scale range shifts towards higher altitudes and latitudes(2)| facilitation of biological invasions(3) and species extinctions(1|3). Alterations of biotic patterns caused by GCC have usually been predicted on the scale of taxonomically recognized morphospecies(1). However| the effects of climate change at the most fundamental level of biodiversity-intraspecific genetic diversity-remain elusive(4). Here we show that the use of morphospecies-based assessments of GCC effects will result in underestimations of the true scale of biodiversity loss. Species distribution modelling and assessments of mitochondrial DNA variability in nine montane aquatic insect species in Europe indicate that future range contractions will be accompanied by severe losses of cryptic evolutionary lineages and genetic diversity within these lineages. These losses greatly exceed those at the scale of morphospecies. We also document that the extent of range reduction may be a useful proxy when predicting losses of genetic diversity. Our results demonstrate that intraspecific patterns of genetic diversity should be considered when estimating the effects of climate change on biodiversity. 3494,2011,2,4,Culture and climate change: Japanese cherry blossom festivals and stakeholders' knowledge and attitudes about global climate change,Most global climate change models predict serious ecological and social problems. In Japan| biologists have found climate change is affecting species and ecosystems| including the earlier flowering time of cherry trees which are an important cultural symbol in Japan. Cherry blossom festivals are also important to local economies. This study explored the perceptions of Japanese residents regarding climate change impacts on culturally significant events such as flower timing of cherry trees. We conducted interviews of stakeholders of three cherry blossom festivals| including sixteen organizers of festivals and 26 managers of festival-dependent businesses| to understand their awareness| attitudes and behaviors toward global climate change and impacts on cherry blossom festivals. Most organizers of the festival in Kakunodate were concerned about global warming and its impact on cherry blossom times while organizers of festivals in Nakano and Komoro felt it was unimportant if flower timing affected the festival schedule. Most (92%) managers of festival-dependent businesses mentioned that global warming is occurring and affecting the flower timing of cherry trees| but there were diverse perceptions of global warming impacts on their business. Managers more dependent on income from cherry blossom festivals indicated greater concern for the effects of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12392,2011,3,2,Cumulative carbon emissions| emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy,A number of recent studies have found a strong link between peak human-induced global warming and cumulative carbon emissions from the start of the industrial revolution| while the link to emissions over shorter periods or in the years 2020 or 2050 is generally weaker. However| cumulative targets appear to conflict with the concept of a 'floor' in emissions caused by sectors such as food production. Here| we show that the introduction of emissions floors does not reduce the importance of cumulative emissions| but may make some warming targets unachievable. For pathways that give a most likely warming up to about 4 degrees C| cumulative emissions from pre-industrial times to year 2200 correlate strongly with most likely resultant peak warming regardless of the shape of emissions floors used| providing a more natural long-term policy horizon than 2050 or 2100. The maximum rate of CO(2)-induced warming| which will affect the feasibility and cost of adapting to climate change| is not determined by cumulative emissions but is tightly aligned with peak rates of emissions. Hence| cumulative carbon emissions to 2200 and peak emission rates could provide a clear and simple framework for CO(2) mitigation policy. 12115,2011,2,4,Current drought and future hydroclimate projections in southeast Australia and implications for water resources management,Southeast Australia is currently in a prolonged drought. The ongoing drought has placed immense pressure on the limited water resources and a perception that this may be the start of a persistent change from historical conditions. Several studies have suggested that part of the current drought could be associated with global warming| and many global climate model projections for southeast Australia are for a drier future on average. However| it is difficult| if not impossible| to separate a global warming signal from the high natural variability observed over the last two centuries and revealed in palaeo-climate records. Historically| water resources planning have considered past climate variability over different timescales together with impacts of other drivers of water availability. Currently| projections of future climate are highly uncertain and they are best treated as multiple plausible futures. In the future| improved hydroclimate projections| with reliable probabilistic quantification of uncertainties| would help make more informed risk-based water sharing and management decisions. Given the current prolonged drought and predictions of a generally drier future in southeast Australia| it is prudent to plan for conditions that will be drier than those experienced in the long-term historical climate. For short-term and medium-term planning| the recent climate should be considered as one possible scenario because there is a need to manage the drought and there is every possibility that the drought will continue for some time yet (either under climate change or as part of long-term natural variability). 12445,2011,5,2,Current global warming appears anomalous in relation to the climate of the last 20 000 years,To distinguish between natural and anthropogenic forcing| the supposedly ongoing global warming needs to be put in a longer| geological perspective. When the last ca. 20 000 yr of climate development is reviewed| including the climatically dramatic period when the Last Ice Age ended| the Last Termination| it appears that the last centuries of globally rising temperatures should be regarded as an anomaly. Other| often synchronous climate events are not expressed in a globally consistent way| but rather are the expression of the complexities of the climate system. Due to the often poor precision in the dating of older proxy records| such a statement will obviously be met with some opposition. However| as long as no globally consistent climate event prior to today's global warming has been clearly documented| and considering that climate trends during the last millennia in different parts of the world have| in the last century or so| changed direction into a globally warming trend| we ought to regard the ongoing changes as anomalies| triggered by anthropogenically forced alterations of the carbon cycle in the general global environment. 12651,2011,3,3,Current status of waste to power generation in Japan and resulting reduction of carbon dioxide emissions,We discuss the current status of waste to power generation (WPG) in Japan and various scenarios involving indirect reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by WPG. The number of WPG facilities domestically as of 2005 was 286. Power generation capacity attained 1|515 MW and power generation 7|050 GWh/year. This amount substitutes energy otherwise acquired from natural resources such as fossil fuels in thermal power plants. If the basic unit of carbon dioxide is 0.555 kg-CO(2)/kWh| then the corresponding carbon dioxide emission reduction is calculated to be 3.9 million tons| equivalent to 26.7% of the 14.6 million tons emitted by municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWI) in 2005. Using various existing technological options| the power generation efficiency could reach more than 20% in MSWI facilities with capacity of 300 tons/day| although present efficiency is only 12.0%. If about 85% of MSW were incinerated in MSWI with power generation efficiency of 20% as a feasible assumption| the total power generation and the corresponding carbon dioxide reduction would be 16|540 GWh/year and 9.18 million tons| respectively| equivalent to 62.7% of the carbon dioxide emitted by MSWI. Also| the ratio of the additional reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by WPG to the total additional reduction (20|000 ktons/year) in Japan during the first commitment period would be 26.3%| suggesting that promotion of WPG in MSWI is an effective option for prevention of global warming. 3195,2011,5,4,Current topics in ESR dating,After over 25 years| the use of electron spin resonance (ESR) is well-established in dating sites of geological| paleontological and archaeological interest. Like any scientific technique| there have been changes in understanding and in methodology. Improvements have not| however| changed the observation that external dose calculations are still a significant source of uncertainty in ages. Examples from Europe| Africa and the Americans illustrate this point. For Pradayrol Cave (France)| the occupation age| 330 ka| is unchallenged| making this the oldest known Neanderthal site in France. For Roc de Marsal| also in France| on the other hand| discrepancies between TL and sedimentary dose rates imply substantial differences in interpretation. In the Western Egyptian Desert| where artifacts and datable material are not well-correlated| the dating results show consistency with expectations based on global climate change| even in deflated sites. Climate change is also the question in geological studies in the Bahamas where| despite concerns about cosmic dose history| ESR dates confirm other evidence for sea level changes. We show that an uncertain age is not the same as an impossible one. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 12460,2011,3,4,Cyclic dipeptides: catalyst/promoter-free| rapid and environmentally benign cyclization of free amino acids,"The best catalyst is no catalyst." With growing public concern over global warming and the amount of greenhouse gases| it is important to reduce the amount of chemicals and eliminate waste| to obtain better results in a simple| selective| safe| and environmentally benign fashion compared to conventional tedious chemical synthesis. Herein| we disclose an environmentally benign| rapid| catalyst/promoter/coupling reagent-free cyclization procedure of free amino acids to furnish exclusively cyclic dipeptides (2|5-diketopiperazines| DKPs) in excellent or even quantitative yield| along with their solid state self-assembling properties. This process is extremely simple and highly efficient with little or no traditional synthetic skills and without any chromatographic purification. Synthesis of structurally diverse DKPs has been achieved with a dramatic decrease in the reaction time| the amount/number of solvents used| a significant increase in the yield and nearly complete elimination of waste. As a result| this is an excellent example for the environmentally benign| clean and green chemistry concept. The most exciting outcome of our investigation is an unusual case of chiral self-recognition encountered upon the cyclization of rac-pipecolic acid| which resulted in the formation of the meso-product exclusively. 3316,2011,2,4,CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC,Tropical cyclones occur relatively frequently throughout the South Pacific with resultant changes to coral reefs and low lying coral islands. Cyclones can result in both accumulation of coral rock| rubble and sand to parts of coral reefs| whereas there can be severe damage and erosion to other parts of reefs and islands. Many coral reef islands owe their existence to the accumulation of material during tropical storms. The location of cyclones is strongly influenced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation| with more in the Eastern Pacific during El Nino events. The frequency of cyclones is unlikely to alter significantly in the future| however the strength of these cyclones will be strongly influenced by increasing global climate change and rising sea surface temperatures. The result is that there will probably be more large category 4 and 5 storms| which will result in even more localized damage to coral reefs and associated islands. While these cyclones will not be devastating for reefs at ocean scales| the synergy between their localized damage and more widespread effects of increasing sea surface temperatures| ocean acidification and rising sea levels| pose major threats for the long term existence of coral reefs as they occur today. Coral reef resource managers have no mechanisms to combat cyclones other than by joining global campaigns against climate change and the release of greenhouse gases; however they can assist in making reefs more resistant and resilient to cyclone damage by taking serious action to reduce direct and localized anthropogenic damage. 11902,2011,2,4,Daily Time-Step Refinement of Optimized Flood Control Rule Curves for a Global Warming Scenario,Pacific Northwest temperatures have warmed by 0.8 degrees C since 1920 and are predicted to increase in the 21st century. Streamflow timing shifts associated with climate change would degrade the water resources system performance for climate change scenarios using existing system operation policies for the Columbia River Basin. To mitigate the hydrologic impacts of anticipated climate change on this complex water resource system| optimized flood control operating rule curves were developed at a monthly time step in a previous study and were evaluated with a monthly time-step simulation model. Here| a daily time-step simulation model is used over a smaller portion of the domain to evaluate and refine the optimized flood-control curves derived from monthly time-step analysis. Daily time-step simulations demonstrate that maximum evacuation targets for flood control derived from the monthly analysis were remarkably robust. However| the evacuation schedules for Libby and Duncan Dams from February to April conflicted with Kootenay Lake level requirements specified in the 1938 International Joint Commission Order on Kootenay Lake. We refined the flood rule curves derived from monthly analysis by creating a gradual evacuation schedule| keeping the timing and magnitude of maximum evacuation the same as in the monthly analysis. After these refinements| the performance at monthly timescales reported in our previous study proved robust at daily timescales. Owing to a decrease in July storage deficits| additional benefits such as more revenue from hydropower generation and more July and August outflow for fish augmentation were observed when the optimized flood-control curves were used for a climate-change scenario. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000125. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers. 12816,2011,5,3,Deccan Volcanism Linked to the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary Mass Extinction: New Evidence from ONGC Wells in the Krishna-Godavari Basin,A scientific challenge is to assess the role of Deccan volcanism in the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) mass extinction. Here we report on the stratigraphy and biologic effects of Deccan volcanism in eleven deep wells from the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) Basin| Andhra Pradesh| India. In these wells| two phases of Deccan volcanism record the world's largest and longest lava mega-flows interbedded in marine sediments in the K-G Basin about 1500 km from the main Deccan volcanic province. The main phase-2 eruptions (similar to 80% of total Deccan Traps) began in C29r and ended at or near the KTB| an interval that spans planktic foraminiferal zones CF1-CF2 and most of the nannofossil Micula prinsii zone| and is correlative with the rapid global warming and subsequent cooling near the end of the Maastrichtian. The mass extinction began in phase-2 preceding the first of four mega-flows. Planktic foraminifera suffered a 50% drop in species richness. Survivors suffered another 50% drop after the first mega-flow| leaving just 7 to 8 survivor species. No recovery occurred between the next three mega-flows and the mass extinction was complete with the last phase-2 mega-flow at the KTB. The mass extinction was likely the consequence of rapid and massive volcanic CO(2) and SO(2) gas emissions| leading to high continental weathering rates| global warming| cooling| acid rains| ocean acidification and a carbon crisis in the marine environment. Deccan volcanism phase-3 began in the early Danian near the C29R/C29n boundary correlative with the planktic foraminiferal zone P1a/P1b boundary and accounts for similar to 14% of the total volume of Deccan eruptions| including four of Earth's longest and largest mega-flows. No major faunal changes are observed in the intertrappeans of zone P1b| which suggests that environmental conditions remained tolerable| volcanic eruptions were less intense and/or separated by longer time intervals thus preventing runaway effects. Alternatively| early Danian assemblages evolved in adaptation to high-stress conditions in the aftermath of the mass extinction and therefore survived phase-3 volcanism. Full marine biotic recovery did not occur until after Deccan phase-3. These data suggest that the catastrophic effects of phase-2 Deccan volcanism upon the Cretaceous planktic foraminifera were a function of both the rapid and massive volcanic eruptions and the highly specialized faunal assemblages prone to extinction in a changing environment. Data from the K-G Basin indicates that Deccan phase-2 alone could have caused the KTB mass extinction and that impacts may have had secondary effects. 3309,2011,2,3,Declining body size: a third universal response to warming?,A recently documented correlate of anthropogenic climate change involves reductions in body size| the nature and scale of the pattern leading to suggestions of a third universal response to climate warming. Because body size affects thermoregulation and energetics| changing body size has implications for resilience in the face of climate change. A review of recent studies shows heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of size responses| exposing a need for large-scale phylogenetically controlled comparative analyses of temporal size change. Integrative analyses of museum data combined with new theoretical models of size-dependent thermoregulatory and metabolic responses will increase both understanding of the underlying mechanisms and physiological consequences of size shifts and| therefore| the ability to predict the sensitivities of species to climate change. 11886,2011,3,4,Decomposition of PFC gas using a water jet plasma,Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) have been adopted for plasma etching and chemical vapor deposition process in semiconductor manufacturing. Among the other exhaust gases| PFCs have longer residual time in air and higher global warming potential. To remove PFCs| water jet gliding arc plasma was designed and prepared. Water jet gliding arc plasma has received the attention as a PFCs decomposition technique due to the formation of OH radical and wide range of plasma. Using water jet gliding arc plasma| the efficacy on the decomposition of CF(4)| one of the major PFCs| was evaluated. As the results of experiments| the amount of water jet increases the decomposition efficiency of CF(4). From the experimental results| a combination of plasma and water jet is considered to be effective for the decomposition of CF(4). Regarding the parametric researches| input feed of water jet| input concentration change| variation in input power| electrode gap| and electrode length were selected for experiments. The highest decomposition efficiency of CF(4) was achieved with 2.1% of input concentration| 7200 kJ/m(3) of specific energy input (SEI)| 1.53x10(-4) m(3)/s of total gas amount| and 4.25x10(-7) m(3)/s of water jet feed. 3325,2011,5,4,Deconstructing the Last Glacial termination: the role of millennial and orbital-scale forcings,Using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity forced by continuously varying boundary conditions and a hypothetical profile of freshwater forcing| the model simulates Heinrich event 1 (HI)| the Bolling warm period| the Older Dryas| the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) and the Younger Dryas in close agreement with paleo-proxy data from different regions worldwide. The ACR can be simulated as the bipolar seesaw response to the AMOC recovery during the termination of H1. However| this study also demonstrates that the amplitude of the ACR can be further amplified by a rapid deglacial retreat of the Antarctic Ice sheets. We suggest that melting from both| the Laurentide and the Antarctic Ice sheets contributed to the sea level rise associated with Meltwater Pulse 1-A (MWP-1A). It is hypothesized that the northern hemispheric source of MWP-1A caused the Older Dryas cooling in the Northern Hemisphere| whereas the Southern Hemispheric source contributed to the ACR. The study also documents that for the majority of paleo-climate proxies considered here| the relative timing can be qualitatively reproduced by the transient modeling experiments. The climate model solution presented here may provide a means to further constrain dating uncertainties of some of paleo-climate proxies during the Last Glacial Termination. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3193,2011,2,4,Decreased streamflow in semi-arid basins following drought-induced tree die-off: A counter-intuitive and indirect climate impact on hydrology,Drought- and infestation-related tree die-off is occurring at regional scales and is projected to increase with global climate change. These large-scale changes in vegetation are expected to influence hydrological responses| but the ecohydrological consequences of die-off have rarely been studied empirically and consequently remain uncertain. Here we evaluate observed hydrologic responses to recent regional-scale die-off of pinon pine (Pinus edulis) in Southwestern USA. Basins with the most tree die-off showed a significant decrease in streamflow over several years following die-off| and this decrease was not attributable to climate variability alone. The results are counterintuitive compared to responses to reductions in tree cover by harvest that have shown an increase in streamflow| although such increases are more substantial for locations with higher precipitation than where the pinon pine die-off occurred. We are unable to isolate the cause of the increase| but note that it is consistent with a reported increase in understory herbaceous cover post-die-off and associated increase in solar radiation reaching near-ground (below the tree canopy overstory)| which together would be expected to reduce overland flow. Our study highlights the need to more fully evaluate hydrological responses to drought-induced tree die-off empirically| in addition to modelling studies. More generally| the result illustrate potential indirect effects of climate on hydrological responses mediated through ecohydrological changes in vegetation| which will need to be considered in future water resources assessments. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved. 12317,2011,2,4,Decreasing water resources and a comprehensive approach to seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO): Case study-Cost analysis of a sample SWRO system,Water is used for a number of different purposes that are predicted to be affected by global warming. Good management of future water resources will become increasingly important as global warming takes its toll. The purpose of this study was to make a cost analysis of seawater desalination in Turkey for reverse osmosis systems| which would be filling a gap in the current literature. Investment costs| operating costs and total production costs of these systems were analyzed. Furthermore| the effects of varyingly priced consumption materials on operating and total production costs were determined. Due to the fact that energy costs constituted the greatest part of the operating costs (70%)| the most discussed part of Seawater Reverse Osmosis systems| has been the energy recovery booster pumps. Thus leading to the utilization of energy recovery booster pumps as the decision criterion| as it was examined in detail in this study. It was concluded that implementation of the energy recovery system was beneficial both economically and environmentally. 12597,2011,5,4,Deglacial nitrogen isotope changes in the Gulf of Mexico: Evidence from bulk sedimentary and foraminifera-bound nitrogen in Orca Basin sediments,Constraining variations in marine N(2)-fixation over glacial-interglacial timescales is crucial for determining the role of the marine nitrogen cycle in modifying ocean productivity and climate| yet paleo-records from N2-fixation regions are sparse. Here we present new nitrogen isotope (delta(15)N) records of bulk sediment and foraminifera test-bound (FB) nitrogen extending back to the last ice age from the oligotrophic Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Previous studies indicate a substantial terrestrial input during the last ice age and early deglacial| for which we attempt to correct the bulk sediment delta(15)N using its observed relationship with the C/N ratio. Both corrected bulk and FB-delta(15)N reveal a substantial glacial-to-Holocene decrease of delta(15)N toward Holocene values of around 2.5 parts per thousand| similar to observations from the Caribbean. This delta(15)N change is most likely due to a glacial-to-Holocene increase in regional N(2)-fixation. A deglacial peak in the FB-delta(15)N of thermocline dwelling foraminifera Orbulina universa probably reflects a whole ocean increase in the delta(15)N of nitrate during deglaciation. The delta(15)N of the surface dwelling foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber and the corrected bulk delta(15)N show little sign of this deglacial peak| both decreasing from last glacial values much earlier than does the delta(15)N of O. universa; this may indicate that G. ruber and bulk N reflect the euphotic zone signal of an early local increase in N(2)-fixation. Our results add to the evidence that| during the last ice age| the larger iron input from dust did not lead to enhanced N(2)-fixation in this region. Rather| the glacial-to-Holocene decrease in delta(15)N is best explained by a response of N(2)-fixation within the Atlantic to the deglacial increase in global ocean denitrification. 12454,2011,2,3,Delay of the First Transition of Asian Summer Monsoon under Global Warming Condition,We evaluate reproducibility of seasonal evolution of the thermal fields associated with the first transition of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) in atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Many CGCMs reproduce seasonal evolution of the thermal fields related to the first transition of ASM well| though the degree of reproducibility differs to some extent. Based on this evaluation| weighted multi-model ensembles are calculated| and the future projections of the ASM onset from the viewpoint of lower-tropospheric westerlies are conducted. The onset dates over the Bay of Bengal| the Indochina Peninsula and the South China Sea are projected to delay by 5 to 10 days in the end of the 21st century under the A1B scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)| compared to those in the end of the 20th century. This change might be related with delay of the reversal of upper-tropospheric meridional thermal gradient between over the Eurasian Continent and the north Indian Ocean. 3335,2011,2,4,Dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region: impact of climate change and socio-environmental factors,To review the scientific evidence about the impact of climate change and socio-environmental factors on dengue transmission| particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. Methods Search of the published literature on PubMed| ISI web of Knowledge and Google Scholar. Articles were included if an association between climate or socio-environmental factors and dengue transmission was assessed in any country of the Asia-Pacific region. Results Twenty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. The weight of the evidence indicates that global climate change is likely to affect the seasonal and geographical distribution of dengue fever (DF) in the Asia-Pacific region. However| empirical evidence linking DF to climate change is inconsistent across geographical locations and absent in some countries where dengue is endemic. Conclusion Even though climate change may play an increasing role in the transmission of DF| no clear evidence shows that such impact has already occurred. More research is needed across countries to better understand the relationship between climate change and dengue transmission. Future research should also consider and adjust for the influence of important socio-environmental factors in the assessment of the climate change-related effects on dengue transmission. 12702,2011,4,4,Density-dependent dispersal and the formation of range borders.,Knowledge about the mechanisms of range formation is crucial for scientifically based species conservation strategies in the face of ongoing global climate change. In recent years an increasing amount of studies have focused on the influences of density-dependent dispersal on demographic and biogeographical patterns. However| it still remains unclear| to what extent and in what ways this strategy would affect the range formation of species. In order to fill this gap| we present a study using individual-based simulations of a species with discrete generations living along a dispersal mortality gradient. We compare the evolution of range sizes for species following density-dependent and density-independent emigration. Furthermore we assess the influence of environmental stochasticity and Allee effects on range formation| as both processes are known to play an important role for dispersal evolution. We find that density-dependent dispersal always results in much wider ranges than unconditional dispersal. Increasing environmental stochasticity| a predicted consequence of climate change| can remarkably expand the ranges of species living in such connectivity gradients if dispersal decisions are based on local population density. A strong Allee effect causes range contraction for both strategies| but the effect is considerably less dramatic under density-dependent compared to density-independent emigration. We strongly recommend accounting for these findings in future attempts to model species range shifts due to climate change. 11945,2011,3,4,Description of HFO-1234yf with BACKONE equation of state,The hydrofluoroolefin 2|3|3|3-tetrafluoroprop-1-ene (HFO-1234yf) is a refrigerant with a low global warming potential that can be used as a working fluid in refrigeration cycles| heat pumps| and organic Rankine cycles (ORC). This paper aims to accurately describe the thermodynamic properties of HFO-1234yf with the molecular based BACKONE equation of state (EOS). The BACKONE parameters are fitted to experimental vapour pressures and saturated liquid densities. For the ideal gas heat capacities very recent experimental results are taken. For the data used in the fit| the uncertainties of calculated values from the BACKONE EOS are 0.36% for vapour pressures and 0.37% for saturated liquid densities. For predicted data| the uncertainties of calculated values from the BACKONE EOS are 0.29% for liquid densities and 0.99% for pressures in the gas phase. Predicted isobaric heat capacities in the liquid are within the experimental uncertainties of +/-5%. Comparisons with the results from the extended corresponding state (ECS) model and with recent molecular simulation data confirm the high quality of the BACKONE EOS. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11706,2011,3,4,Design of the advanced accumulator for the pressurized water reactor,With the increased requirement for nuclear power generation as an effective countermeasure against global warming| Mitsubishi has developed the advanced pressurized water reactor (APWR) by adopting a new component of the emergency core cooling system (ECCS)| a new instrumentation and control system| and other newfound improvements. The ECCS introduces a new passive component called the advanced accumulator which integrates both functions of the conventional accumulator and the low-pressure pump without any moving parts. The advanced accumulator uses a new fluidics device that automatically regulates flow rates of injected water in case of a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). This fluidics device is referred to as a flow damper. This paper describes the design method of the flow damper and the standpipe. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11842,2011,5,4,Detailed correlation and age of continental late Changhsingian and earliest Triassic beds: Implications for the role of the Siberian Trap in the Permian-Triassic biotic crisis,Conchostracan-rich beds between the Siberian Trap flood basalts and within the thick underlying Hungtukun tuffs of the Tunguska Basin can be closely correlated with conchostracan faunas of Dalongkou (NW China) and the Germanic Basin. The Germanic Basin faunas in turn can be closely correlated with the marine international stratigraphic time scale| and the accuracy of the biostratigraphic correlation of the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) is confirmed by a minimum in delta(13)C(crab) values at this level. These high-resolution correlations demonstrate conclusively that the PTB is located within the temporally brief but thick Siberian Trap flood basalt sequence. The PTB lies slightly above the level of the main Permo-Triassic extinction event in low latitude marine beds| which occurred at the base of the C. meishanensis-H. praeparvus conodont zone and correlates with the beginning of the Siberian Trap flood basalt event. The main end-Permian continental extinction event was somewhat earlier| within the middle of the C. changxingensis-C. deflecta conodont zone. This horizon marks a mass extinction that devastated a diverse conchostracan fauna and left only low diversity faunas at low and high latitudes. This continental extinction event horizon lies within the middle of the Hungtukun tuffs of the Tunguska Basin and 107 m above the base of the Guodikeng Formation at Dalongkou (NW China). A "Triassic type" pioneer flora with numerous lycopod spores appears immediately above this level. Severe high northern and southern latitude marine extinctions occurred concurrently with this continental event| but low latitude marine biota was not then affected. This earlier event is best explained by global warming. The main low latitude extinction event in marine warm water faunas occurred somewhat later and left no signature in high latitude marine faunas or in continental faunas| but it does coincide with a rapid collapse of tropical rain forest environments (disappearance of the highly diverse Gigantopteris flora). This collapse likely was caused by global cooling due to a volcanic winter event. Published by Elsevier B.V. 12680,2011,2,4,Detection of recent climate change using daily temperature extremes in Khorasan Province| Iran,Climate change is considered one of the main environmental concerns of the 21st century. Increased variation and changes in mean temperature and precipitation are expected to dominate future changes in climate and affect crop productivity. It is highly important to identify regions vulnerable to climate change and to identify suitable adaptation practices that can sustain productivity to some extent. In the present study| an iterative chi(2) method was applied to detect recent possible climate change in extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures for 5 different regions (Birjand| Boujnord| Mashhad| Sabzevar and Torbat Heydarieh) in Khorasan Province| Iran| during a recent 15 yr period and a prior 30 yr period. The method determines the values of extreme daily temperature that are most significantly different between the prior and recent periods and gives a measure of the weekly significance of that difference. We determined the percentage change in the frequency of the number of extreme days for each period of continuous significant weeks. In all 5 regions| a few days of extreme low minimum temperature (especially in Mashhad and Sabzevar) were experienced during the recent period. The major changes in climate for minimum temperature were determined in Mashhad. In this region the highest percentage change of climate (min. temperature) occurred during Week 33| when a 41% decrease of extreme low minimum temperatures occurred. In Mashhad the highest warming (decrease in days of min. temperature) occurred during late March to late December. Among 5 regions during the recent period some weeks experienced a greater number of days of extreme high maximum temperature (except Torbat Heydarieh and Birjand). In Torbat Heydarieh| the highest percentage change occurred during Week 24| when a 26% decrease of extreme high maximum temperatures was detected. In Torbat Heydarieh| the highest cooling occurred from April to early December. 3356,2011,2,3,Detection of the timing and duration of snowmelt in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya using QuikSCAT| 2000-2008,The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region holds the largest mass of ice in Central Asia and is highly vulnerable to global climate change| experiencing significant warming (0.21 +/- 0.08 degrees C/decade) over the past few decades. Accurate monitoring of the timing and duration of snowmelt across the HKH region is important| as this region is expected to experience further warming in response to increased greenhouse gas forcing. Despite the many advantages and applications of satellite-derived radar scatterometer data shown for capturing ice and snow melt dynamics at high latitudes| similar comprehensive freeze/thaw detection studies at lower latitudes (including the HKH region) are still absent from the scientific literature. A comprehensive freeze/thaw detection study is utilized on perennial snow/ice and seasonal snow cover for the first time in the Himalayan and Karakoram regions. A dynamic threshold-based method is applied to enhanced QuikSCAT Ku-band backscatter observations from 2000 to 2008 that (a) provides spatial maps of the timing of melt| freeze| and melt season duration| and (b) emphasizes regional variability in freeze/thaw dynamics. The resulting average melt durations for 2000-2008 are 161 +/- 11 days (early May-mid-October) for the eastern Himalayas| 130 +/- 16 days (late May-early October) for the central Himalayas| 124 +/- 13 days (mid-May-mid-September) for the western Himalayas| and 124 +/- 12 days (late May-late September) for the Karakoram region. The eastern Himalayan region has on average an earlier melt onset| a later freeze-up| and therefore a longer melt season (similar to 5 weeks) relative to the central and western Himalayan and the Karakoram regions. Snowmelt dynamics exhibit regional and interannual variability with clear connections to terrain features| in particular elevation and aspect. With respect to ongoing controversies surrounding melt in the Himalayan region| this study provides an overall perspective of regional differences in melt onset| freeze-up| and melt duration that have important implications for glaciological and hydrological processes across the HKH region. 12857,2011,3,2,Determinants of vehicle fuel-type preference in developing countries: a case of Turkey,Motor vehicles play a major role in global warming. The main contribution of motor vehicles comes from the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). This study aims to identify the factors affecting the preferences for vehicle fuel types in Turkey. To meet this objective| a survey was conducted with 1983 participants in different regions of Turkey by the DataProfil survey firm. Results obtained from a multinomial logit model show that variables such as gender| attitudes towards alternative energy sources| social responsibility and sensitivity to environmental problems have an impact on preference of vehicle fuel type. 12422,2011,3,3,Determination of Algae Biomass Production Efficiency in a Tubular Reactor using Effluent from the Anaerobic Bioreactor as a Food,Traditional fuels| in addition to deepening the effect of global warming are also characterized by limited availability and are steadily declining resources. Therefore| it seems necessary to seek full-fledged replacement of fossil fuels. Such an alternative are biofuels. Algae can be source of several types of renewable biofuels. Starting from the methane generated in the processes of anaerobic decomposition of biomass| by biodiesel made from algal oil| until photobiological hydrogen production. The idea of using algae to produce fuel is not new| but until now it is taken into account| due to the rising prices of fossil fuels such as coal and oil| and the need of reduction of global warming| which is associated with the burning of fossil fuels. The article presents the results of the efficiency of microalgae biomass production using effluent from the methane fermentation bioreactors as food. For the algal culture production tubular photo-bioreactors was used. The study was conducted simultaneously in two identical systems| of which one was fed with a synthetic food| and the other one used efluent from fermenters. In both systems| the amount of nutrients entering was identical. The study was conducted for 48 days| every three days| the compactness of dry matter and dry organic matter were determined in bioreactors. In filtrate remaining after the analysis of weight of dry matter content| organic compounds as COD| total nitrogen content (as total organic nitrogen| ammonium and nitrate and nitrite) and total phosphorus was determined. Every six days from each photo-bioreactor 0.5 1 of the algae mixture was taken| and then the reactor was supplemented with an equal volume of synthetic food under option 1| or the effluent from the fermenter in option 2. Our results indicate the possibility of using effluent from the fermenter as food for algae culture production. The resulting biomass growth rates were similar in both systems. They amounted to 56.3 mgs.mo / l . d for a variant with synthetic food and 54.3 mgs.mo / l . d with application of effluent. Photo-bioreactors can be an effective solution for collecting and storing biomass collected from wild algae. They can be a source of substrate fermentation reactors to power in winter when the availability of algae from the environment is small. A considerable potential for application of the effluents from the reactors as a fermentation medium for the cultivation of algae.
12551,2011,3,4,Determination of environmental impacts of antimicrobial usage for US Northern Great Plains swine-production facilities: a life-cycle assessment approach,This study used life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to examine the environmental effects associated with sub-therapeutic tylosin and chlortetracycline (CTC) antimicrobial use within US Northern Great Plains (NGP) swine-production facilities. Antimicrobial feed-additive use is widespread within this industry and is expected to play an integral role within future carbon-management strategies due to its ability to increase feed efficiency and control disease. The LCA model system boundaries for this study were: (1) antimicrobial manufacturing; (2) feed manufacturing; (3) transport of antimicrobials to the feed-mill and completed feed to the swine-production facility; (4) electricity and propane use associated with swine-production operations; and (5) swine enteric and manure-storage and handling emissions. The functional unit is the growth life cycle of one head of swine from starter (7 kg) to finisher (111 kg market weight; "wean-to-finish") production stages. Environmental impacts considered include global warming| acidification and eutrophication| ecotoxicity| and fossil-fuel use following EcoIndicator 99 assessment methodology. High-estimated energy requirements associated with CTC and tylosin manufacturing| coupled with the large transportation distances to the feed manufacturing and swine-production facilities increased climate change and ecotoxicity impacts compared with a no antimicrobial-use scenario. However| feeding CTC resulted in several local positive changes including increased feed utilization| lower producer costs due to shortened production times| and reduced manure greenhouse gas emissions. These positive changes in the local environment however did not offset negative global impacts associated with material manufacturing and transport for the specific scenarios analyzed. Increased use of renewable-energy sources for both swine and antimicrobial production resulted in net environmental enhancement. This study demonstrates both the beneficial and negative environmental aspects associated with sub-therapeutic antimicrobial within the swine-production industry| and provides swine producers and environmental practitioners with tangible alternatives for meeting both livestock-health management and future carbon-management constraints within a reduced-carbon-emission consumer and regulatory marketplace. 12586,2011,2,4,Determination of photosynthetic parameters Vc(max) and J(max) for a C(3) plant (spring hulless barley) at two altitudes on the Tibetan Plateau,On the Tibetan Plateau| the unique alpine climate factors of low air pressure| low CO(2) partial pressure and low air temperature have significant but non-explicit influences on the photosynthetic capacity of plants. To evaluate these influences| we measured the net photosynthetic rates for spring hulless barley leaves at two altitudes of 3688 m (the low altitude) and 4333 m (the high altitude)| respectively. Two photosynthetic parameters-Vc(max)| the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylase activity| and J(max) the maximum rate of photosynthetic electron transport-were determined. The net photosynthetic rate and the photosynthetic parameters Vc(max) and J(max) were higher for leaves from plants grown at the high altitude than for those at the low altitude. Vc(max) and J(max) were approximately 24% and 22% greater| respectively| for leaves from plants grown at the high altitude. The CO(2) and air temperature at the high altitude were lower than those at the low altitude. As a consequence| plants exposed to lower CO(2) partial pressure and lower air temperature have a higher photosynthetic capacity on the Tibetan Plateau. The optimal temperatures for Vc(max) and J(max) were approximately 6.5% and 3.5% higher| respectively| in leaves from plants grown at the high altitude than those grown at the low altitude| and the ratio of J(max) to Vc(max) was 12.7% lower at the low altitude. Simulation analyses revealed that the photosynthetic capacities of plants decreased after long-term increases in CO(2) partial pressure and temperature associated with global climate change on the Tibetan Plateau. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12616,2011,2,4,Detritivores feeding on poor quality food are more sensitive to increased temperatures,As temperature increases the metabolic rates| the effect of warming on animals will also enhance animal-driven nutrient cycling with important consequences on ecosystem dynamics. We tested the effects of increased temperature (15 and 20 degrees C| optimal and suboptimal temperatures| respectively) on metabolic rates of the shredder larvae Sericostoma vittatum fed on three diets| Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn.| Eucalyptus globulus Labill. and Quercus robur L. We measured P and N content in leaves| faeces and excreta and calculated C| N| and P assimilation efficiencies| and mass balances. Carbon assimilation efficiency (AE) was reduced at 20 degrees C when larvae fed on Q. robur; nitrogen-AE was reduced at 20 degrees C in all diets and phosphorus-AE was not affected by temperature. Larvae achieved a net N gain in all treatments| however| increased temperatures had a negative effect on N incorporation into body tissue. The mass balance of P was negatively affected by temperature; larvae fed on Q. robur and on E. globulus had null balances at 15 degrees C and negative at 20 degrees C. Our results showed that high temperature increased nutrient excretion and affected N:P ratios in excreta| thus changes in temperature may have severe consequences on larval mediated leaf litter processing and nutrient cycling. However| the type of diet seemed to modulate the way temperature affects larval metabolism regarding excretion rate and assimilation efficiencies. The extent to which optimal-suboptimal temperature variation will alter detritivore metabolism performance| internal nutrient balance and hence| cycling of elements in the environment seems crucial under global warming scenarios. 11608,2011,3,4,Developing low-carbon economy: Actions| challenges and solutions for energy savings in China,Global warming and financial crisis have brought severe threats to human existence and economic growth. Utilization of potential for energy savings is necessary for alleviating energy shortage| protecting environment and achieving sustainable economic and social development. This paper has not only comprehensively evaluated the China's energy savings opportunities| but also systematically analyzed the primary challenges and deficiencies in China's energy savings policies| and proposed targeted countermeasures and suggestions. This is of important guiding significance for China to establish a long-term effective mechanism to boost energy-saving technologies and products| and to promote the economic development toward a low-carbon mode. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3376,2011,3,3,Development and commercialization of renewable energy technologies in Canada: An innovation system perspective,The increased environmental awareness coupled with the recent changes in the oil prices triggered the necessity of focusing on effective management of energy systems. Global climate change has caused many people to consider ways of reducing greenhouse gases Renewable energy has become an essential feature in curtailing emission of Green House Gases| while meeting the demand for energy. This paper presents an innovation system framework for development and diffusion of renewable energy technologies. The framework is used to identify opportunities for small and medium enterprises in the renewable energy sector. A case study on a successful development| installation and implementation of solar thermal systems households in Calgary. Alberta| by an entrepreneurial firm| is also presented. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 12058,2011,3,3,Development of a multi-scale ocean model by using particle Laplacian method for anisotropic mass transfer,The direct injection of CO(2) into the deep ocean is one of the feasible ways for the mitigation of the global warming| although there is a concern about its environmental impact near the injection point. To minimize its biological impact| it is necessary to make CO(2) disperse as quickly as possible| and it is said that injection with a pipe towed by a moving ship is effective for this purpose. Because the injection ship moves over a spatial scale of O(10(2) km)| a mesoscale model is necessary to analyse the dispersion of CO(2). At the same time| since it is important to investigate high CO(2) concentration near the injection point| a small-scale model is also required. Therefore| in this study| a numerical model was developed to analyse CO(2) dispersion in the deep ocean by using a fixed mesoscale and a moving small-scale grid systems| the latter of which is nested and moves in the former along the trajectory of the moving ship. To overcome the artificial diffusion of mass concentration at the interface of the two different grid systems and to keep its spatial accuracy almost the same as that in the small-scale| a particle Laplacian method was adopted and newly modified for anisotropic diffusion in the ocean. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 12784,2011,3,3,Development of an Intelligent System for Monitoring and Diagnosis of the Carbon Dioxide Capture Process,The technology of amine-based carbon dioxide (CO(2)) capture has been widely adopted for reducing CO(2) emissions and mitigating global warming. The primary research objective in the field of post-combustion CO(2) capture process system is to improve effectiveness and efficiency of the process. Extensive literature review of the research showed that the dominant approach was to investigate the behaviors of the aqueous amine solvents for enchancing CO(2) capture efficiency. As the operation of an amine-based CO(2) capture system is complicated and involves monitoring over one hundred process parameters and careful manipulation of numerous valves and pumps| automated monitoring and process control can be a fruitful approach to enhance efficiency of the CO(2) capture process system. In this study| artificial intelligence techniques were applied for development of a knowledge-based expert system that effectively monitors and controls the CO(2) capture process system so as to enhance CO(2) capture efficiency. The Knowledge-Based System for Carbon Dioxide Capture (KBSCDC) was implemented with DeltaV Simulate (trademark of Emerson Corp.| USA). DeltaV Simulate provides control utilities and algorithms which support the configuration of control strategies in modular components. The KBSCDC can conduct real-time monitoring and diagnosis| as well as suggest remedies for any abnormality detected. Also| the control strategies applied to the control devices of the process are simulated in KBSCDC. The expert system enhances performance and efficiency of the CO(2) capture process system because it supports automated diagnosis of the system should any abnormal conditions occur. In this way| costly downtime and maintenance are avoided. 12619,2011,2,4,Development of DNA chip for jellyfish verification from South Korea,Global warming and environmental change have been responsible for an exponential increase in the number of jellyfish. The mass propagation of jellyfish has inflicted great damage to the economy worldwide. Therefore| in order to instantly determine the possible types of jellyfish| DNA barcode data analysis was conducted using molecular markers. DNA chip technology is an efficient method for species-level identification and| as such| will contribute powerfully to taxonomic and biodiversity research. In order to identify jellyfish species| the mitochondrial COI gene| which has been shown to be widely applicable in animal barcoding| was used; the selected species-specific probe was 23 bp and was printed onto silylated slides using a robotic microarrayer. Additionally| COI genes were amplified from the genomic DNA of jellyfish using the primers LCO1490 and HCO2198 targeted to COI. In this study| we amplified and analyzed species-specific COI sequences for six jellyfish species (Aequorea coerulescens| Aurelia aurita| Bolinopsis sp.| Cyanea nozakii| Dactylometra quinquecirrha| Nemopilema nomurai) collected at Jangmok Bay in Geoje. Herein| we describe each of the jellyfish species detected via microarray analysis. As a result| the COI barcode sequence technique was found to be suitable for the identification of jellyfish from South Korea. 12128,2011,3,2,Development| performance and stability of sulfur-free| macrovoid-free BSCF capillaries for high temperature oxygen separation from air,Capture and storage of CO(2) (CCS) from fossil-fuel power plants is vital in order to counteract a pending anthropogenic global warming. High temperature oxygen transport perovskite membranes can fulfill an important role in the separation of oxygen from air needed in the oxy-fuel technologies for CCS. In this study we present the development| performance and stability of gastight| macrovoid-free and sulfur-free Ba(0.5)Sr(0.5)Co(0.8)Fe(0.2)O(3-delta) (BSCF) mixed conductor capillary membranes prepared by phase-inversion spinning and sintering. A sulfur-free phase-inversion polymer was chosen in order to obtain a phase-pure BSCF crystal phase. Special attention was given to the polymer solution and ceramic spinning suspension in order to avoid macrovoids and achieve gastight membranes. The sulfur-free BSCF capillaries showed an average 4-point bending strength of 64 +/- 8 MPa and a maximum oxygen flux of similar to 5.3 Nml/(cm(2) min) at 950 degrees C for an argon sweep flow rate of 125 Nml/min. The comparison of the performance of sulfur-free and sulfur-containing BSCF capillaries with similar dimensions revealed a profound impact of the sulfur contamination on both the oxygen flux and the activation energy of the overall oxygen transport mechanism. Both long-term oxygen permeation at different temperatures and post-operation analysis of a sulfur-free BSCF capillary were performed and discussed. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12432,2011,2,4,Diagnosing the Dry: Historical Case Notes from Southwest Western Australia| 1945-2007,Long regarded for its reliable winter rainfall| the Southwest region of Western Australia was beset by unexpected dry conditions in the early 1970s whose persistence was baffling. The gradual growth of scientific interest in the region's rainfall| as this article contends| was strongly influenced by political| social| and economic concerns about the challenges posed by drought and climate change. The experience of rainfall decline coincided with international scientific and political interest in the global climate and the perception that it was deviating from its "normal" state. Indeed| this extended "dry" provided an Australian link to international concerns regarding anthropogenic global warming. This article argues that the historical| political| and economic importance of the Southwest's agricultural industries has led policy makers and researchers to perceive the region's changing climatic conditions as pathological and in need of diagnosis. 12511,2011,2,4,Diatom to dinoflagellate shift in the summer phytoplankton community in a bay impacted by nuclear power plant thermal effluent,Understanding how nuclear power plant thermal effluents influence the phytoplankton community may provide insights into the potential ecological consequences of global warming. In the present study| long-term trends in the phytoplankton community structure under the influence of nuclear power plant thermal effluent in the subtropical Daya Bay (DYB) in China were investigated in the summer season from 1982 to 2005. Water temperature at the outfall station was significantly higher than in the surrounding water| by as much as 5.6 degrees C| and increased by 6.8 degrees C during the 23 yr study period. The contribution of diatoms and dinoflagellates to the total phytoplankton showed significant correlation with temperature (R(2) > 0.65)| negative for diatoms| while positive for dinoflagellates. Although dinoflagellate abundance increased over time at both the outfall and adjacent (control) stations| the increase at the outfall station was much more dramatic and accelerated over time. No clear relationship between the phytoplankton shift and stratification was evident. When water temperature reached 35 degrees C or > d 3.7 degrees C above that at the control station| dinoflagellates| such as Ceratium furca| C. fusus| C. trichoceros| Dinophysis caudate and Protoperidinium depressum| grew to prominence| accounting for about 50% of the total phytoplankton abundance. On the contrary| the diatom contribution decreased during the study period| from 82.0% in 1982 to 53.1% in 2005. These results suggest that the rise in temperature caused by power plant thermal discharge has imposed strong influences on the phytoplankton community| favoring dinoflagellates over diatoms| with a remarkable diatom to dinoflagellate shift when temperature increases to a threshold level of 35 degrees C or reaches a threshold differential of 3.7 degrees C relative to the normal ambient temperature in DYB. 12177,2011,2,4,Did global warming and alien invasions affect surf zone hyperbenthic communities on sandy beaches in Belgium?,Due to global warming| southern hyperbenthic species were expected| which extend their distribution range northwards. It was also expected that alien species would have invaded the surf zone hyperbenthos. Therefore| the species composition of the hyperbenthos occurring along the Belgian coast was determined| and spatial and temporal patterns in community composition were assessed. The hyperbenthos was sampled with a hand-pushed sledge on 10 sandy beaches during summer 1995| winter 1996| summer 2009 and winter 2010. Neither alien species nor any southern species which recently extended its distribution range northwards were observed during the present study| indicating that alien species and global warming did not yet affect the species composition of the surf zone hyperbenthos along the Belgian coast. The hyperbenthic community was dominated by Mysida| while Amphipoda were the most diverse group. Multivariate analysis revealed that temporal patterns dominated over spatial patterns: winter and summer hyperbenthic communities clearly differed in species composition and different species assemblages were also observed between the first and the recent sampling campaigns. Although for several other groups| a decline in species richness has been observed closer to the mouth of the Westerschelde| no spatial gradient could be recognised for the surf zone hyperbenthos. Instead| it was found that species richness was positively related to beach width. It could be concluded that the species composition and the total abundance of surf zone hyperbenthic communities along sandy beaches of the Belgian coast strongly vary in space| but especially in time. 3213,2011,2,4,Diet of Bulwer's Petrel (Bulweria bulwerii) in the Azores| NE Atlantic,Studying the diet of top marine predators| such as seabirds| is important in understanding their place in the trophic network and effects of global climate change| but knowledge of the diet of several procellariiformes remains anecdotal. The diet of Bulwer's Petrel (Bulweria bulwerii) in the Azores was studied over two consecutive years using stomach Bushings from 85 birds. The frequency of occurrence of prey taxa (%O) was similar in both years (chi(2) = 5.396| d.f. = 5| p = 0.370)| with squid being the most common. Fish and squid were of similar occurrence by number (%N) in the diet (49% and 51%| respectively) in 1998 but in 1999 fish were more numerous (62% against 38% for squid). Squid lower beaks from five families and fish otoliths from six families were identified| representing 20 taxa. The most abundant prey in both years were squid Pyroteuthis margnritifera and the mesopelagic fish Electrona risso. The maximum standard length of fish and squid consumed was 7 cm and 11 cm| respectively. Given most of the identified prey are luminescent| the findings corroborate earlier studies suggesting Bulwer's Petrel feed on small mesopelagic prey that migrate to the surface at night. Received 16 December 2010| accepted 10 May 2011.
12849,2011,2,4,Differences in sensitivity of native and exotic fish species to changes in river temperature,This paper describes the effects that temperature changes in the Rhine river distributaries have on native and exotic fish diversity. Site-specific potentially affected fractions (PAFs) of the regional fish species pool were derived using species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for water temperature. The number of fish species in the river distributaries has changed remarkably over the last century. The number of native rheophilous species declined up until 1980 due to anthropogenic disturbances such as commercial fishing| river regulation| migration barriers| habitat deterioration and water pollution. In spite of progress in river rehabilitation| the native rheophilous fish fauna has only partially recovered thus far. The total number of species has strongly increased due to the appearance of more exotic species. After the opening of the Rhine-Main-Danube waterway in 1992| many fish species originating from the Ponto-Caspian area colonized the Rhine basin. The yearly minimum and maximum river temperatures at Lobith have increased by circa 4 degrees C over the period 1908-2010. Exotic species show lower PAFs than native species at both ends of the temperature range. The interspecific variation in the temperature tolerance of exotic fish species was found to be large. Using temporal trends in river temperature allowed past predictions of PAFs to demonstrate that the increase in maximum river temperature negatively affected a higher percentage of native fish species than exotic species. Our results support the hypothesis that alterations of the river Rhine's temperature regime caused by thermal pollution and global warming limit the full recovery of native fish fauna and facilitate the establishment of exotic species which thereby increases competition between native and exotic species. Thermal refuges are important for the survival of native fish species under extreme summer or winter temperature conditions [Current Zoology 57 (6): 852-862| 2011]. 11940,2011,4,4,Different characteristics of cold day and cold surge frequency over East Asia in a global warming situation,This study investigates the changes in winter cold extreme events over East Asia in the present and future climates. Two distinct terms to indicate cold extreme events are analyzed: "cold day|" which describes a temperature below a certain threshold value (e. g.| simply cold weather)| and " cold surge|" which describes an abrupt temperature drop (e. g.| relatively colder weather than a previous day). We analyze both observations and long-term climate simulations from 13 atmospheric and oceanic coupled global climate models (CGCMs). The geographical distribution of sea level pressure corresponding to a cold day (cold surge) is represented by a dipole (wave train) feature. Although cold day and cold surge show similar patterns of surface air temperature| they are induced by the out-of-phase sea level pressures. From the results of our analysis of a series of future projections for the mid and late twenty-first century using the 13 CGCMs| cold day occurrences clearly decrease with an increasing mean temperature (a correlation coefficient of -0.49)| but the correlation between cold surge occurrences and the mean temperature is insignificant (a correlation coefficient of 0.08)| which is supported by the same results in recent observation periods (1980-2006). Thus| it is anticipated that cold surge occurrences will remain frequent even in future warmer climate. This deduction is based on the future projections in which the change in the day-to-day temperature variability is insignificant| although the mean temperature shows significant increase. The present results suggest that living things in the future| having acclimatized to a warmer climate| would suffer the strong impact of cold surges| and hence the issue of vulnerability to cold surges should be treated seriously in the future. 12726,2011,2,4,Different temperature tolerance of northern and southern European populations of a freshwater Isopod Crustacean species (Asellus aquaticus L.),Temperature is a major factor for ectothermic organisms| directly affecting biochemical and physiological processes. The increase in temperature and its effects have prompted many climate change studies| many of which focus on latitudinal gradients as they readily provide contrasting thermal regimes. In this study we evaluated the response in terms of growth| survival| and reproduction rates of two latitudinally separate populations of Asellus aquaticus (L.) to high temperature (30 degrees C). The comparisons revealed i) differences between the two populations| with higher tolerance found in the southern group| as well as between genders and body size classes. Only individuals from the southern population were able to complete the biological cycle at 30 degrees C| and no individuals from the northern population survived after 60 days; ii) differences between life stages: the survival rate of juveniles was greater than that of adults and the southern population had the highest proportion of temperature-resistant juveniles. The results confirm the importance of body size in the response to rising temperature and suggest that life stage should be taken into account in thermal adaptation studies. Analyses of intraspecific variability across different thermal regimes associated with the different latitudes illustrate how rising temperature can affect biological traits. 12546,2011,2,4,Differential response of benthic macrofauna to the formation of novel oyster reefs (Crassostrea gigas| Thunberg) on soft and rocky substrate in the intertidal of the Bay of Brest| France,When the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas| Thunberg) was introduced into France for aquaculture in the mid-sixties| it was initially confined to the sites where it was farmed. Subsequent global warming most likely facilitated the establishment of wild populations throughout the French coastline. This phenomenon of spread has become so great that oyster reefs have recently appeared in sheltered estuaries| on both soft and hard substrate. The present study examined two such sites in the Bay of Brest| Brittany. It is the first to investigate the impacts of this new substrate on the biocoenosis of uncolonised intertidal habitats in France. Increased species richness and abundance of intertidal macrofauna were observed in the presence of oyster reefs on both| mud (4 and 20 fold respectively) and rock (5 fold for both). The dominance of suspension feeders in mud changed to carnivores in reefs and their underlying sediment. Calculation of biotic coefficients (BC) of the soft-bottom fauna revealed only a slight organic enrichment| and the organic and silt composition in the sediment beneath oyster reefs were not significantly different from that on bare sites. On rock| the dominance of grazers remained unchanged between bare rock and oyster reef| while reef on rock was also characterised by deposit and detritic feeders. C. gigas is suspected to cause a homogenisation of coastal habitats with an impoverishment of overall quality but we detected only 11 common species between reefs on mud (60 species) and those on rock (55 species). (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3290,2011,2,4,Differential sensitivity of coral larvae to natural levels of ultraviolet radiation during the onset of larval competence,Scleractinian corals are the major builders of the complex structural framework of coral reefs. They live in tropical waters around the globe where they are frequently exposed to potentially harmful ultraviolet radiation (UVR). The eggs and early embryonic stages of some coral species are highly buoyant and remain near the sea surface for prolonged periods of time and may therefore be the most sensitive life stages with respect to UVR. Here| we analysed gene expression changes in five developmental stages of the Caribbean coral Montastraea faveolata to natural levels of UVR using high-density cDNA microarrays (10 930 clones). We found that larvae exhibit low sensitivity to natural levels of UVR during early development as reflected by comparatively few transcriptomic changes in response to UVR. However| we identified a time window of high UVR sensitivity that coincides with the motile planula stage and the onset of larval competence. These processes have been shown to be affected by UVR exposure| and the transcriptional changes we identified explain these observations well. Our analysis of differentially expressed genes indicates that UVR alters the expression of genes associated with stress response| the endoplasmic reticulum| Ca(2+) homoeostasis| development and apoptosis during the motile planula stage and affects the expression of neurogenesis-related genes that are linked to swimming and settlement behaviour at later stages. Taken together| our study provides further data on the impact of natural levels of UVR on coral larvae. Furthermore| our results might allow a better prediction of settlement and recruitment rates after coral spawning events if UVR climate data are taken into account. 11972,2011,5,4,DIMMING OF THE 17TH CENTURY SUN,Reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) rely mainly on linear relations between TSI variation and indices of facular area. When these are extrapolated to the prolonged 15th-17th century Sporer and Maunder solar activity minima| the estimated solar dimming is insufficient to explain the mid-millennial climate cooling of the Little Ice Age. We draw attention here to evidence that the relation departs from linearity at the lowest activity levels. Imaging photometry and radiometry indicate an increased TSI contribution per unit area from small network faculae by a factor of 2-4 compared with larger faculae in and around active regions. Even partial removal of this more TSI-effective network at prolonged minima could enable climatically significant solar dimming| yet be consistent with the weakened but persistent 11 yr cycle observed in Be 10 during the Maunder Minimum. The mechanism we suggest would not alter previous findings that increased solar radiative forcing is insufficient to account for 20th century global warming. 3424,2011,4,4,Diode laser-based sensor for high precision measurements of ambient CO(2) in network applications,The increasing need for better spatial and temporal measurements of greenhouse gases| especially CO(2)| to support global climate change modeling is driving the expansion of monitoring networks. Currently| networks making ambient CO(2) measurements use environmentally stabilized sensors based on non-dispersive infrared absorption spectroscopy. To expand both measurement capability and coverage| much work is underway to develop highly accurate| reliable yet economical sensors for the greenhouse gases. The US Department of Energy has created specifications for a new sensor that has high performance but at a cost that permits widespread deployment. We report on a sensor designed to meet this need. We have demonstrated a compact| automated| high precision sensor for ambient CO(2) that offers good performance in an economical package. The sensor is a near-IR diode laser-based absorption spectrometer operating near 2 mu m and using Integrated Cavity Output Spectroscopy (ICOS). Field demonstrations were carried out at both the UNH/AirMap Thompson Farm Observatory and the NOAA Boulder Atmospheric Observatory. The sensor has a demonstrated precision of between 0.090 and 0.125 ppmv for a 30 sec acquisition| or 1 part in 3000 to 4000. 12476,2011,2,4,Direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forests: three case studies from British Columbia,Climate is an important driver of forest dynamics. In this paper| we present three case studies from the forests of British Columbia to illustrate the direct and indirect effects of climatic variation and global warming on forest composition and function. (1) Tree mortality rates in old forests of western North America have doubled in recent decades. Regional warming and water deficits directly affected tree death rates or indirectly increased insect and pathogen activity and wind storms causing tree deaths. Concurrently| tree density and basal area declined significantly| indicating lagged growth responses of surviving trees or long-term decline of these forests. (2) Yellow-cedar decline along coastal British Columbia and Alaska shows that small changes in average climatic conditions| coupled with extreme weather events| can have large ecological effects. A small persistent increase in mean temperatures has reduced snow-cover depth and duration. Coupled with extreme cold events which damage unprotected tree roots| these climatic changes are considered the primary cause of widespread yellow-cedar mortality. (3) Interactions between climate and disturbance are complex in the mountain forests of the East Kootenay region. Understanding historic climate-fire interactions is key to anticipating future frequent and severe fires. Here| climate change effects may be exacerbated by the cumulative effects of human land use| fire exclusion and mountain pine beetle outbreaks. We conclude that understanding past climate variation and its effects on forests help us to anticipate the potential effects of global warming. 12031,2011,2,4,Direct and interaction-mediated effects of environmental changes on peatland bryophytes,Ecosystem processes of northern peatlands are largely governed by the vitality and species composition in the bryophyte layer| and may be affected by global warming and eutrophication. In a factorial experiment in northeast China| we tested the effects of raised levels of nitrogen (0| 1 and 2 g m(-2) year(-1))| phosphorus (0| 0.1 and 0.2 g m(-2) year(-1)) and temperature (ambient and +3A degrees C) on Polytrichum strictum| Sphagnum magellanicum and S. palustre| to see if the effects could be altered by inter-specific interactions. In all species| growth declined with nitrogen addition and increased with phosphorus addition| but only P. strictum responded to raised temperature with increased production of side-shoots (branching). In Sphagnum| growth and branching changed in the same direction| but in Polytrichum| the two responses were uncoupled: with nitrogen addition there was a decrease in growth (smaller than in Sphagnum) but an increase in branching; with phosphorus addition growth increased but branching was unaffected. There were no two-way interactions among the P| N and T treatments. With increasing temperature| our results indicate that S. palustre should decrease relative to P. strictum (Polytrichum increased its branching and had a negative neighbor effect on S. palustre). With a slight increase in phosphorus availability| the increase in length growth and production of side-shoots in P. strictum and S. magellanicum may give them a competitive superiority over S. palustre. The negative response in Sphagnum to nitrogen could favor the expansion of vascular plants| but P. strictum may endure thanks to its increased branching. 3383,2011,2,2,Direct climate effects of perennial bioenergy crops in the United States,Biomass-derived energy offers the potential to increase energy security while mitigating anthropogenic climate change| but a successful path toward increased production requires a thorough accounting of costs and benefits. Until recently| the efficacy of biomass-derived energy has focused primarily on biogeochemical consequences. Here we show that the biogeophysical effects that result from hypothetical conversion of annual to perennial bioenergy crops across the central United States impart a significant local to regional cooling with considerable implications for the reservoir of stored soil water. This cooling effect is related mainly to local increases in transpiration| but also to higher albedo. The reduction in radiative forcing from albedo alone is equivalent to a carbon emissions reduction of 78 t C ha(-1)| which is six times larger than the annual biogeochemical effects that arise from offsetting fossil fuel use. Thus| in the near-term| the biogeophysical effects are an important aspect of climate impacts of biofuels| even at the global scale. Locally| the simulated cooling is sufficiently large to partially offset projected warming due to increasing greenhouse gases over the next few decades. These results demonstrate that a thorough evaluation of costs and benefits of bioenergy-related land-use change must include potential impacts on the surface energy and water balance to comprehensively address important concerns for local| regional| and global climate change. 11821,2011,3,4,Direct concentration and viability measurement of yeast in corn mash using a novel imaging cytometry method,Worldwide awareness of fossil-fuel depletion and global warming has been increasing over the last 30 years. Numerous countries| including the USA and Brazil| have introduced large-scale industrial fermentation facilities for bioethanol| biobutanol| or biodiesel production. Most of these biofuel facilities perform fermentation using standard baker's yeasts that ferment sugar present in corn mash| sugar cane| or other glucose media. In research and development in the biofuel industry| selection of yeast strains (for higher ethanol tolerance) and fermentation conditions (yeast concentration| temperature| pH| nutrients| etc.) can be studied to optimize fermentation performance. Yeast viability measurement is needed to identify higher ethanol-tolerant yeast strains| which may prolong the fermentation cycle and increase biofuel output. In addition| yeast concentration may be optimized to improve fermentation performance. Therefore| it is important to develop a simple method for concentration and viability measurement of fermenting yeast. In this work| we demonstrate an imaging cytometry method for concentration and viability measurements of yeast in corn mash directly from operating fermenters. It employs an automated cell counter| a dilution buffer| and staining solution from Nexcelom Bioscience to perform enumeration. The proposed method enables specific fluorescence detection of viable and nonviable yeasts| which can generate precise results for concentration and viability of yeast in corn mash. This method can provide an essential tool for research and development in the biofuel industry and may be incorporated into manufacturing to monitor yeast concentration and viability efficiently during the fermentation process. 11806,2011,3,3,Direct Decomposition of Anesthetic Gas Exhaust Using Atmospheric Pressure Multigas Inductively Coupled Plasma,In our research group| an atmospheric multigas inductively coupled plasma (ICP) source was developed for industrial plasma processing and elemental analysis. The plasma source can stably generate atmospheric thermal plasma not only by Ar but also by He| O(2)| N(2)| CO(2)| air| and their mixture gas. In this paper| the plasma source was applied for anesthetic gas decomposition including N(2)O| which is a kind of global warming gases. Atmospheric thermal plasma was generated by mixture gas of N(2)O| O(2)| and air. It corresponds to actual gas composition for up to three surgery exhaust. Spectroscopic characteristics of generated plasma and composition of treated gas were investigated. By using optimally shaped ICP torch| 99.9% of decomposition rate and 942 g/kWh of high energy efficiency were achieved. However| around 3% of NO(x) was generated as by-products due to high gas temperature. 12697,2011,2,4,Directions in modelling partial migration: how adaptation can cause a population decline and why the rules of territory acquisition matter,Modelling of partial migration in birds has progressed from simple graphical representations to sophisticated analyses that use evolutionary invasion analysis to determine how the success of the two strategies (stay year round on the breeding grounds| or migrate) can become frequency dependent. Here I build two models to relax two assumptions commonly made in models and often violated in nature: that individuals do not vary in any trait other than their migratory propensity| and that the prior residence effect (which grants priority access of good habitats to non-migrants) operates at maximum strength. The same framework can incorporate and merge aspects of various hypotheses proposed to explain partial migration (dominance| body size| arrival timing| and limited foraging opportunities)| and shows that either small (subdominant) or large (dominant) individuals may emerge as the more likely migrants; the latter case occurs when it is easy for socially dominant migrants to win back prime breeding locations upon their arrival. The dynamics of territory acquisition is shown to be an important and understudied topic| as variations in the relative importance of prior residency versus resource holding power can shift a population from complete migration to complete year-round residency. These models also highlight exceptions to a tacit assumption in discussions of evolution of migration under climate change| which is that populations can decline if genetic adaptation or phenotypic plasticity do not occur fast enough. Competition can also yield the opposite pattern where adaptation itself leads to a population decline. 12169,2011,3,3,Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 degrees C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges,Aggregations of greenhouse gas mitigation pledges by countries are frequently used to indicate whether resulting global emissions in 2020 will be 'on track' to limit global temperature increase to below specific warming levels such as 1.5 or 2 degrees C. We find that historical emission levels aggregated from data that are officially reported by countries to the UNFCCC are lower than independent global emission estimates| such as the IPCC SRES scenarios. This discrepancy in historical emissions could substantially widen the gap between 2020 pledges and 2020 benchmarks| as the latter tend to be derived from scenarios that share similar historical emission levels to IPCC SRES scenarios. Three methods for resolving this discrepancy| here called 'harmonization'| are presented and their influence on 'gap' estimates is discussed. Instead of a 3.4-9.2 GtCO(2)eq shortfall in emission reductions by 2020 compared with the 44 GtCO(2)eq benchmark| the actual gap might be as high as 5.4-12.5 GtCO(2)eq (a 22-88% increase of the gap) if this historical discrepancy is accounted for. Not applying this harmonization step when using 2020 emission benchmarks could lead to an underestimation of the insufficiency of current mitigation pledges. 3417,2011,2,4,Discrete-time growth-dispersal models with shifting species ranges,Many species are responding to global climate change by shifting their ranges poleward in latitude or upward in elevation. We analyze an integrodifference equation that combines growth| dispersal| and a constant-speed| climate-induced range shift and find that a shifting population can die out| even if the width of its range remains constant. We show how to determine the critical range-shift speed (for extinction) and study the effects of the growth rate and of the shape and scale of the dispersal kernel on persistence. 12289,2011,3,3,Dispersion Modeling of Leaks of Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerant HFO-1234yf in an Automobile Garage,HFO-1234yf (Hydrofluoro-Olefin) is a new| low global warming refrigerant developed for automotive air-conditioning (A/C) systems [Nielsen et al.| Chem Phys Lett 439 (2007)| 18-22]. It was developed to replace R-134a| which is being phased out in the European Union because of its high global warming potential (IPCC| Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report| 2007). HFO-1234yf is highly energy efficient| exhibits low toxicity| and can be potentially used in direct expansion automotive A/C systems with minimal design modifications. Significant work has been previously completed to confirm the mild flammability characteristics of HFO-1234yf To understand the impact of accidental releases of HFO-1234yf into a garage environment| computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to simulate releases of HFO-1234yf under various A/C line rupture scenarios. In panicular; releases were simulated using a leak source in. a calm open area| a room with no forced ventilation and the same space but impinging on a flat plate. The refrigerant concentration was determined as function of distance (x| y| and z directions) from the leak point during leak event. The size and shape of the portion of the refrigerant plume above the lower flammability limit was also determined. This work enforces the benefit of using the inherently safer practice of minimization of refrigerant quantities. This article will review CID modeling results for given refrigerant leak scenarios. (C) 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog 30: 27-34| 2011. 3199,2011,2,4,Dissolved oxygen in the bottom water of the Sea of Japan as a sensitive alarm for global climate change,The Sea of Japan| a semi-closed marginal sea (greatest depth similar to 3700 m) in the northwestern-most Pacific Ocean| has an independent| deep convection system| which is driven by the formation and the sinking of cool| saline surface water towards the bottom in severe winters. Continuous measurement of dissolved oxygen using highly precise versions of the Winkler titration method has revealed 8-10% decreases in the bottom concentration of oxygen (O(2)) over the past 30 years. The temporal decrease in O(2) means an imbalance between the supply of O(2) from the surface and the in situ consumption of O(2) in decomposing organic matter| suggesting that the change in the deep convection pattern of the Sea of Japan is probably caused by global climate change to reduce winter cooling of surface seawater. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12080,2011,3,3,Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models,The recent failure of Copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies. A wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level. In this paper I use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution. Results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in GDP across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12133,2011,4,2,Distributions of decadal means of temperature and precipitation change under global warming,There remains uncertainty in the projected climate change over the 21st century| in part because of the range of responses forced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations among global climate models. This paper applies a method of estimating distributions and "probability density functions" (PDFs) for forced change| based on the pattern scaling technique and previously used for Australia| to generate changes in temperature and precipitation at locations over the globe| from simulations of 23 CMIP3 models. Changes for 2030 and 2100| under the A1B scenario for concentrations| for both seasonal and annual cases are presented. The PDFs for temperature have a standard deviation that averages 31% of the mean change| and they tend to be positively skewed. The standard deviation for precipitation averages 15% of the base climate mean| leading to five and 95 percentile estimates that are of opposite sign for most of the globe. A further source of uncertainty of change for a particular period of time| such as a decadal average| is the unforced or internal variability of climate. A joint probability distribution approach is used to produce PDFs for decadal means by adding in an estimate of internal variability. In the decade centered on 2030| this broadens the PDFs substantially. The results are related to time series of observations and projections over 1900-2100 for the agricultural regions of Iowa and the Murray-Darling Basin. For most land areas| warming becomes clearly discernable| allowing for both uncertainties| in the next few decades. Data files of the key results are provided. 12649,2011,2,4,Diversity of the alpine vegetation in central Taiwan is affected by climate change based on a century of floristic inventories,Floristically| Taiwan is a very rich island due to her varied geography| topography and habitats. Through extended historical research involving past and present botanical inventories of the central mountains| particularly of the Hehuanshan area of Taiwan| we are now able to examine the floristic composition of four elevation zones| 2|000-2|500 m| 2|500-3|000 m| 3|000-3|500 m| and 3|500-3|950 m. We selected four study sites| namely Shinjenkan (SJK) at 2|250-2|585 m| Shihmenshan (SMS) at 3|000 m| Hehuan East Peak (HEP) at: 3|401 m| and Hehuan Major Peak (HMP) at 3|408 m| and determined their alpha| beta| and gamma diversities along with their Simpson"s diversity indices. Our results clearly showed that the species richness (alpha diversity) was significantly high and decreased as the altitude increased. Coincidently| Simpson's diversity index at 2|250 m was significantly high at 0.85| drastically decreased to 0.17 at 3|145 m| and continued to decrease to 0.10 at both sites at 3408 m. On the other hand| by comparing plant distribution data collected over a century for the Hehuanshan| Alishan and Yushan areas| we were able to predict that plants would migrate mostly from a lower to a higher elevation when the global temperature increases. For instance| in the Hehuanshan area| 16 species would move towards higher elevations and seven species would remain in their original zone. In the Alishan area| seven species would migrate and four would remain in their original zone| and in Yushan| 15 species would migrate out of their zone and five would remain. Of all of the species| at least six risk extinction| since their expected migration would take them far beyond the limits of the land available above 3|950 m. It is concluded that the alpine vegetation will be redistributed| many plant species will move towards a higher elevation and| eventually| at least six plant species (Anaphalis morrisonicola| Artemisia morrisonensis| Swertia randaiensis| Hypericum nagasawai| Angelica morrisonicola| and Cirsium arisanensis) will become extinct. 11738,2011,3,3,Do Mitigation Strategies Reduce Global Warming Potential in the Northern U.S. Corn Belt?,Agricultural management practices that enhance C sequestration| reduce greenhouse gas emission (nitrous oxide [N(2)O]| methane [CH(4)]| and carbon dioxide [CO(2)])| and promote productivity are needed to mitigate global warming without sacrificing food production. The objectives of the study were to compare productivity| greenhouse gas emission| and change in soil C over time and to assess whether global warming potential and global warming potential per unit biomass produced were reduced through combined mitigation strategies when implemented in the northern U.S. Corn Belt. The systems compared were (i) business as usual (BAU); (ii) maximum C sequestration (MAXC); and (iii) optimum greenhouse gas benefit (OGGB). Biomass production| greenhouse gas flux| change in total and organic soil C| and global warming potential were compared among the three systems. Soil organic C accumulated only in the surface 0 to 5 cm. Three-year average emission of N(2)O and CH(4) was similar among all management systems. When integrated from planting to planting| N(2)O emission was similar for MAXC and OGGB systems| although only MAXC was fertilized. Overall| the three systems had similar global warming potential based on 4-yr changes in soil organic C| but average rotation biomass was less in the OGGB systems. Global warming potential per dry crop yield was the least for the MAXC system and the most for OGGB system. This suggests management practices designed to reduce global warming potential can be achieved without a loss of productivity. For example| MAXC systems over time may provide sufficient soil C sequestration to off set associated greenhouse gas emission. 3374,2011,2,4,Do plants remember drought? Hints towards a drought-memory in grasses,The frequency of extreme drought events is projected to increase under global climate change| causing damage to plants and crop yield despite potential acclimation. We investigated whether grasses remain acclimated to drought even after a harvest and remember early summer drought exposure over a whole vegetation period. For this| we compared the response of Arrhenatherum elatius plants under a second| late| drought (they were pre-exposed to an early drought before)| to plants exposed to a single| only late| extreme drought. Surprisingly| the percentage of living biomass after a late drought increased for plants that were exposed to drought earlier in the growing season compared to single-stressed plants| even after harvest and resprouting after the first drought. Relative leaf water content did not differ between the two treatments. Net photosynthesis was non-significantly reduced by 25% in recurrent drought treatment. Maximum quantum efficiency (F(v)/F(m))and maximum fluorescence (F(m)) were reduced in plants that were exposed to recurrent drought. These findings indicated improved photoprotection in double-stressed plants. Our results provide first hints towards a "drought memory" over an entire vegetation period| even after harvest and resprouting. However| the advantage of improved photoprotection might also cause reductions in photosynthesis that could have adverse effects on crop yield under more severe or longer droughts. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11687,2011,2,4,Does Carcinus maenas facilitate the invasion of Xenostrobus securis?,Introduction of non-indigenous species can generate new trophic interactions that may facilitate or control their spread. The first recorded Atlantic population of the mytilid Xenostrobus seams| originally from New Zealand| offers an opportunity to examine how native predators may control the outcome of invasions. Laboratory experiments were done to evaluate the impact of the native crab. Carcinus maenas| on 2 species of mussels| X. securis and the native Mytilus galloprovincialis| at 3 different temperatures (15| 20 and 25 degrees C). In addition| we investigated handling time| breaking time and profitability for both species of mussel. We tested the hypotheses that (1) C. maenas exerts a greater predation pressure on the native mussel and (2) C. maenas increases its ingestion of the most profitable species of mussel at higher temperatures. The first hypothesis was supported because C maenas consumed greater than twice as many native mussels as invasive ones at all temperatures. This greater consumption of M. galloprovincialis could be explained by its greater profitability and shorter handling and breaking time. These results are in concordance with the enemy release hypothesis suggesting that C. maenas might facilitate the invasion of X. securis. The consumer-prey relationship was not significantly affected by temperature although the number of X. securis ingested by C maenas tended to decrease with increasing temperature| whereas the number of M. galloprovincialis consumed increased at the highest temperature. Results| therefore| suggest that global warming could enhance the facilitation of the invasion of X. securis due to its lower profitability and greater handling and breaking time. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12184,2011,2,4,Does Climate Warming Stimulate or Inhibit Soil Protist Communities? A Test on Testate Amoebae in High-Arctic Tundra with Free-Air Temperature Increase,Soil testate amoebae assemblages in a grassland area at Zackenberg (Northeast Greenland) were subjected to simulated climate-warming during the growing season using the Free-Air Temperature Increase technique. Samples were collected in upper (0 - 3 cm) and deeper (3 - 6 cm) soil horizons. Mean temperature elevations at 2.5 and 7.5cm depth were 2.58 +/- SD 1.11 and 2.13 +/- SD 0.77 degrees C| respectively| and did not differ significantly. Soil moisture in the top 11cm was not affected by the warming. During the manipulation| the densities of living amoebae and empty shells were higher in the experimental plots but only in the upper layer. Possibly| testate amoebae in the deeper layer were limited by other factors| suggesting that warming enhances the carrying capacity only in favourable conditions. Species richness| on the other hand| was only increased in the deeper horizon. Warming did not change the percentage of individuals belonging to small-sized species in any of the living assemblages| contrary to our expectation that those species would quickly increase their density. However| in the empty shell assemblages| the proportion of small-sized individuals in the experimental plots was higher in both layers| indicating a rapid| transient increase in small amoebae before the first sampling date. Changes in successional state of testate amoebae assemblages in response to future climate change might thus be ephemeral| whereas alterations in density and species richness might be more sustained. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 3398,2011,2,4,Does Enhanced Solar UV-B Radiation Affect Marine Primary Producers in Their Natural Habitats?,This article is a highlight of the paper by Li et al. in this issue of Photochemistry and Photobiology as well as a short summary of the research on the effects of solar UV-B radiation on primary production in the oceans. Laboratory experiments under controlled conditions using artificial light sources indicate species-specific damage of many phytoplankton groups. Mesocosm studies in enclosures of limited volume allow analyzing UV effects in multigeneration monitoring of natural assemblages. Field studies to determine the effects of short-wavelength solar radiation require sensitive instrumentation and measurements over extended areas of the open ocean to yield significant results. Results from a cruise described in the paper by Li et al. indicate clear effects of UV-B and UV-A on the photosynthetic carbon fixation of phytoplankton communities with spatial differences between coastal and open-ocean waters. Increasing temperatures and acidification in the ocean due to global climate change may exacerbate the detrimental effects of solar UV-B radiation. 11696,2011,2,4,Does Global Warming Increase Establishment Rates of Invasive Alien Species? A Centurial Time Series Analysis,Background: The establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions| but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process| it is crucial to understand the relationship between global warming and establishment rate of invasive alien species| especially for poikilothermic invaders such as insects. Methodology/Principal Findings: We present data that demonstrate a significant positive relationship between the change in average annual surface air temperature and the establishment rate of invasive alien insects in mainland China during 1900-2005. This relationship was modeled by regression analysis| and indicated that a 1 degrees C increase in average annual surface temperature in mainland China was associated with an increase in the establishment rate of invasive alien insects of about 0.5 species year(-1). The relationship between rising surface air temperature and increasing establishment rate remained significant even after accounting for increases in international trade during the period 1950-2005. Moreover| similar relationships were detected using additional data from the United Kingdom and the contiguous United States. Conclusions/Significance: These findings suggest that the perceived increase in establishments of invasive alien insects can be explained only in part by an increase in introduction rate or propagule pressure. Besides increasing propagule pressure| global warming is another driver that could favor worldwide bioinvasions. Our study highlights the need to consider global warming when designing strategies and policies to deal with bioinvasions. 12369,2011,2,4,Does global warming threaten the dynamics of Arctic charr in Lake Geneva?,In France| the Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) is native in only two lakes (Lakes Bourget and Geneva)| in the most southerly part of its distribution area. It is a profundal morph living at depths of between 30 and 100 m in Lake Geneva. Following considerable stocking of Lake Geneva with juvenile Arctic charr and some good results during the 1980s| catches are currently declining. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this decrease| but the potential influence of warming of the lake in the 1990s has not been considered. This article studies the relationship between the strength of the cohorts and the temperature in Lake Geneva from 1992 to 2002| and discusses the various potential causes of the population collapse observed. The findings reveal close correlation between water temperature and the strength of the cohorts. It is concluded that the recent warming of Lake Geneva may have a significant direct or indirect impact on the Arctic charr population. 12183,2011,2,4,Does low temperature prevent Spartina alterniflora from expanding toward the austral-most salt marshes?,Along the Atlantic coast of South America| the northern salt marshes (lower than 43A degrees S) are dominated by Spartina species while the southern salt marshes (greater than 43A degrees S) are dominated by Sarcocornia perennis. The most abundant Spartina species are Spartina densiflora which is present in most coastal marshes| and Spartina alterniflora that was never recorded above the similar to 42A degrees 25'S. It is not clear why S. alterniflora has not succeeded in the southern marshes| in which the low marsh zone remains as an extensive bared mud flat. We address the hypothesis that the absence of S. alterniflora in the south is driven by the cold temperatures inversely related with increasing latitudes along the East coast of Patagonia. To evaluate this hypothesis| we carried out an experiment in which we manipulated the temperature in combination with frost formation and photoperiod. We found that cold temperature produced a negative effect on S. alterniflora| and this effect seems accentuated by the frost but not by the reduction in the photoperiod. Our results support the hypothesis that the absence of S. alterniflora in the southernmost salt marshes of Patagonia is a consequence of the frost as an outcome of the co-occurrence of low temperature and high humidity. The importance of our results are discussed in the context of the global warming and how Spartina species enlarge their distributional range toward higher latitudes. 11947,2011,3,3,Does the complexity of the rumen microbial ecology preclude methane mitigation?,Ruminant livestock are responsible for production of a portion of greenhouse gases| particularly methane (61 Tg/yr) which is believed to contribute to global warming and climate change. Methane is an end product of fermentation of plant material by the microbial ecosystem in the rumen. Methanogenesis is undertaken by methanogenic archaea and is a mechanism by which H(2) is removed from fermentation in order to regenerate biochemical co-factors such as NAD+. The microbial ecosystem is very complex and involves thousands of species of bacteria (10(10)-10(11) cells/ml)| archaea (10(7)-10(9) cells/ml)| protozoa (10(4)-10(6) cells/ml)| fungi (10(3)-10(6) cells/ml)| and viruses (10(9)-10(10) cells/ml)| which interact with the feed| their host and each other. This ecosystem is relatively poorly understood| particularly inter-species interactions and interactions with the host. Less than 15% of the microbial species in the gastrointestinal tract have been cultured and characterised. However| knowledge of this ecosystem is accumulating| particularly with the advent of molecular biology and culture independent technologies. New high throughput sequencing methodologies| such as pyrosequencing| will greatly improve the rate of knowledge acquisition and techniques such as Stable Isotope Probing will enhance our ability to understand species inter-relationships. While we can expect an increase in our knowledge of this complex ecosystem| and an improved ability to predictably lower CH(4) emissions| examples of successful reductions already exist| including use of feeds (e.g.| cereal grains) and chemical additives (e.g.| 2-bromo-ethane sulfonate| bromochloromethane). Achieving meaningful reductions in CH(4) emissions may be possible with advances in our knowledge of the intricacies of this complex ecosystem. This paper is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions| Guest Edited by T.A. McAllister| Section Guest Editors: K.A. Beauchemin| X. Hao| S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology| P.H. Robinson. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11836,2011,2,4,Does the Southern Annular Mode contribute to the persistence of the multidecade-long drought over southwest Western Australia?,Record low austral winter rainfall totals over southwest Western Australia (SWWA) in 2010 saw a continuation of the multidecade-long winter drought plaguing the region. During this season| the highest recorded positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) value was measured| adding weight to an association of a positive SAM with anomalously low SWWA winter rainfall (SWR)| and vice-versa. However| such a SAM-SWR teleconnection has been recently questioned. Using observational data in the post-1979 satellite era| it is shown that such a SAM influence does exist. This coherence is confirmed with 1150 years of modelled 20th century SWR anomalies and SAM values from 23 climate models| showing that a nonlinear impact operates: the influence from a negative SAM is greater than that from a positive SAM. This explains why a small positive shift in the SAM can cause a large SWR reduction| as has been observed. A further test shows that models with a greater positive SAM trend systematically produce a greater future SWR reduction. As all climate models project an increase in the SAM these results suggest that as global warming continues unabated| SWWA winter droughts will be more persistent as atmospheric conditions become more unfavourable for drought-breaking rains. Citation: Cai| W.| P. van Rensch| S. Borlace| and T. Cowan (2011)| Does the Southern Annular Mode contribute to the persistence of the multidecade-long drought over southwest Western Australia?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L14712| doi:10.1029/2011GL047943. 11923,2011,2,4,Does wing dimorphism affect mobility in Metrioptera roeselii (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae)?,Range shifts are among the most conspicuous effects of global warming. Marked changes in distribution are recorded both for highly mobile species of insects| which are capable of flight| and wing-dimorphic species with predominantly short-winged individuals. One of these species is the bush-cricket Metrioptera roeselii| which occasionally produces long-winged individuals. However| there is little known about the locomotory behaviour of wing-dimorphic insects. Yet to be able to predict potential range shifts it is necessary to know the dispersal potential of macropters. Therefore| an experiment was conducted in which individually marked M. roeselii were released at four sites. Different movement parameters| such as daily movement| activity radius| dispersal range| net displacement and crowding rate| were calculated. The statistical analyses showed that the movement of long-winged and short-winged individuals did not differ| but the percentage of individuals that were not seen again was twice as high for long-winged bush-crickets. These results suggest that most of the long-winged individuals that were seen again did not fly; i.e.| they had the same basic mobility as the short-winged individuals. However| the comparatively low number of long-winged individuals that were seen again suggests that at least some macropters are long-distance dispersers| which is relevant for the dispersal process. The comparison of sexes showed that males were significantly more mobile than females. This sex-specific locomotory behaviour in M. roeselii might depend on a complex series of social interactions and physiological conditions. 12224,2011,2,4,Drizzle correlations with giant nuclei,Giant nuclei (GN) concentrations (N(GN)) below RICO small cumulus clouds were substantially correlated with drizzle drop concentrations (N(d))| especially at higher cloud altitudes. The N(GN)-N(d) correlation coefficients (R) progressively increased with altitude whereas R for CCN concentrations with Nd were negative with mostly decreasing magnitudes at increasing altitudes. These results indicate that the positive influence of GN [or CCN with low critical supersaturations (S(c))] on N(d) is greater than the negative influence of high S(c) CCN on N(d) at high cloud altitudes where there are more drizzle drops. This work has implications not only for fundamental cloud physics but also for climate change; i.e.| global warming and the indirect aerosol effect as well as geoengineering and hygroscopic cloud seeding. Citation: Hudson| J. G.| V. Jha| and S. Noble (2011)| Drizzle correlations with giant nuclei| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L05808| doi: 10.1029/2010GL046207. 3313,2011,2,4,Drought and fire suppression lead to rapid forest composition change in a forest-prairie ecotone,Altered fire regimes and increased drought can lead to major vegetation changes| especially in ecotones. A decrease in fire can lead to woody species encroachment in prairies and increasing forest stand density. The threat of global climate change raises questions about potential increases in the length| severity| and incidence of droughts substantially altering species composition. Re-measured upland forests in south-central North America's midcontinent forest-prairie ecotone exhibited major changes in woody species composition and structure over fifty years and successional trajectories appeared to favor invasive Juniperus virginiana L over the previous dominant Quercus species. The objective of this study was to determine whether climate and fire exclusion affected the recruitment history of dominant woody species in these upland forests located near the xeric western edge of the eastern deciduous forest biome of North America. We removed cores and cross-sections from 992 J. virginiana| Quercus marilandica Munchh. and Q. stellata Wangenh. trees from eleven forest stands located across central and northwest Oklahoma| and determined their ages using standard dendrochronological methods. Recruitment of all species increased following a severe mid-20th century drought| but a rapid increase in J. virginiana recruitment and decrease in Quercus recruitment appeared to be linked to a decrease in fire. Future fire regime changes and increased drought due to global climate change could lead to widespread shifts from Quercus-to Juniperus-dominated forests and cause substantial changes to ecosystem services. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12790,2011,2,4,Drought responses in Aleppo pine seedlings from two wild provenances with different climatic features,Global warming will likely exacerbate the negative effects of limited water availability in the Mediterranean area. The Italian Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) provenances are distributed along the coasts except Otricoli provenance growing in an unusual location between 300 and 1|000 m a. s. l.| in Umbria (central Italy). The aim of the present study was to investigate the photosynthetic response to a 28-day-long drought and to a subsequent reestablishment of water availability in Otricoli and North Euboea (Greece) provenances| representing different locations along a rainfall gradient in the natural range of this species. Six-month-old seedlings were used in this experiment since at this age Aleppo pine plants in Mediterranean climate face their first water stress potentially affecting plant survival. Water potential (psi(w))| net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance decreased during drought in both provenances and showed minimal values 28 days after beginning the treatment (DAT). Otricoli seedlings adjusted psi(w) gradually as the stress level increased and 21 DAT showed a lower psi(w) than North Euboea. In contrast| in North Euboea seedlings psi(w) that was not affected until 21 DAT rapidly dropped to a minimum of -3.81 MPa 28 DAT. At the onset of the stress the intercellular CO(2) concentration (C (i)) was reduced| and the "instrinsic" water-use efficiency (WUE(i)) was enhanced in both provenances| as stomatal conductance decreased more rapidly than photosynthesis. However| 28 DAT| C (i) increased and WUEi decreased as stomatal conductance and photosynthesis declined to minimum levels| revealing nonstomatal limitations of photosynthesis. A rapid decrease in PSII maximal photochemical efficiency estimated by chlorophyll (Chl) fluorescence (F(v)/F(m)) was also observed when the stress became severe. At the final stage of water stress| North Euboea seedlings maintained significantly higher values of F(v)/F(m) than Otricoli seedlings. Upon rewatering| photosynthesis did not fully recover in Otricoli seedlings (41 DAT)| while all other parameters recovered to control levels in both provenances. No drought-induced physiological differences were consistent with the regional climatic features of these two provenances. Our results suggest that phenotypic plasticity in drought response may help Otricoli provenance cope with global warming| but that recurrent drought episode may slow down the primary productivity of this provenance. 12606,2011,2,4,Drought-driven change in wildlife distribution and numbers: a case study of koalas in south west Queensland,Context. Global climate change will lead to increased climate variability| including more frequent drought and heatwaves| in many areas of the world. This will affect the distribution and numbers of wildlife populations. In south-west Queensland| anecdotal reports indicated that a low density but significant koala population had been impacted by drought from 2001-2009| in accord with the predicted effects of climate change. Aims. The study aimed to compare koala distribution and numbers in south-west Queensland in 2009 with pre-drought estimates from 1995-1997. Methods. Community surveys and faecal pellet surveys were used to assess koala distribution. Population densities were estimated using the Faecal Standing Crop Method. From these densities| koala abundance in 10 habitat units was interpolated across the study region. Bootstrapping was used to estimate standard error. Climate data and land clearing were examined as possible explanations for changes in koala distribution and numbers between the two time periods. Key results. Although there was only a minor change in distribution| there was an 80% decline in koala numbers across the study region| from a mean population of 59 000 in 1995 to 11 600 in 2009. Most summers between 2002 and 2007 were hotter and drier than average. Vegetation clearance was greatest in the eastern third of the study region| with the majority of clearing being in mixed eucalypt/acacia ecosystems and vegetation on elevated residuals. Conclusions. Changes in the area of occupancy and numbers of koalas allowed us to conclude that drought significantly reduced koala populations and that they contracted to critical riparian habitats. Land clearing in the eastern part of the region may reduce the ability of koalas to move between habitats. Implications. The increase in hotter and drier conditions expected with climate change will adversely affect koala populations in south-west Queensland and may be similar in other wildlife species in arid and semiarid regions. The effect of climate change on trailing edge populations may interact with habitat loss and fragmentation to increase extinction risks. Monitoring wildlife population dynamics at the margins of their geographic ranges will help to manage the impacts of climate change. 12100,2011,2,4,Dry matter and nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in rice (Oryza sativa L.) exposed to experimental warming with elevated CO(2),Effects of elevated CO(2) concentration ([CO(2)]) and air temperature (T(air)) on accumulation and intra-plant partitioning of dry matter (DM) and nitrogen in paddy rice were investigated by performing a pot experiment in six natural sunlit temperature gradient chambers (TGCs) with or without CO(2) fumigation. Rice (Oryza sativa L.) plants were grown in TGCs for a whole season under two levels of [CO(2)] (ambient| 380 ppm; elevated| 622 ppm) and two daily T(air) regimes (ambient| 25.2A degrees C; elevated| 27.3A degrees C) in split-plot design with triplication. The effects of elevated [CO(2)] and T(air) on DM were most dramatic for grain and shoot with a significant (P < 0.05) interaction between [CO(2)] and T(air). Overall| total grain DM increased with elevated [CO(2)] by 69.6% in ambient T(air) but decreased with elevated T(air) by 33.8% in ambient [CO(2)] due to warming-induced floral sterility. Meanwhile| shoot DM significantly increased with elevated T(air) by 20.8% in ambient [CO(2)] and by 46.6% in elevated [CO(2)]. Although no [CO(2)] x T(air) interaction was detected| the greatest total DM was achieved by co-elevation of [CO(2)] and T(air) (by 42.8% relative to the ambient conditions) via enhanced shoot and root DM accumulation| but not grain. This was attributed largely both to increase in tiller number and to accumulation of photosynthate in the shoot and root due to inhibition of photosynthate allocation to grain caused by warming-induced floral sterility. Distribution of N (both soil N and fertilizer (15)N) among rice parts in responding to climatic variables entirely followed the pattern of DM. Our findings demonstrate that the projected warming is likely to induce a significant reduction in grain yield of rice by inhibiting DM (i.e.| photosynthates) allocation to grain| though this may partially be mitigated by elevated [CO(2)]. 3379,2011,2,4,Duration tenacity: A method for assessing acclimatory capacity of the Antarctic limpet| Nacella concinna,The limpet| Nacella concinna| collected from the Antarctic Peninsula (67 S)| was incubated at -0.3 degrees C and 2.9 degrees C for 9 months to test if the previously reported absence of acclimation capacity in Antarctic marine ectotherms could be due to the extended time it takes for them to adjust their physiology to a new stable state. Acclimation was tested through acute measurements of upper lethal limit and a modified measure of tenacity| that tested muscle capacity by measuring the length of time that N. concinna were able to remain attached to the substratum at different temperatures. Both measures acclimated in response to incubation to the higher temperature. Lethal limits were elevated in N. concinna incubated at 2.9 degrees C (8.1 +/- 0.3 degrees C) compared to those incubated at -0.3 degrees C (6.9 +/- 0.4 degrees C). 2.9 degrees C incubated N. concinna also had a maximum tenacity at 2.1 degrees C. a higher temperature than the maximum tenacity of those incubated at -0.3 degrees C| which occurred at -1.0 degrees C. This study is the first to show that the Antarctic limpet can acclimate its physiology| but that it requires a greater period of time for acclimation to occur than previous studies have allowed for. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3343,2011,2,3,Dynamic characteristics of monthly rainfall in the Korean Peninsula under climate change,Global climate change is one of the most serious issues we are facing today. While its exact impacts on our water resources are hard to predict| there is a general consensus among scientists that it will result in more frequent and more severe hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods| droughts). Since rainfall is the primary input for hydrologic and water resource studies| assessment of the effects of climate change on rainfall is essential for devising proper short-term emergency measures as well as long-term management strategies. This is particularly the case for a region like the Korean Peninsula| which is susceptible to both floods (because of its mountainous terrain and frequent intense rainfalls during the short rainy season) and droughts (because of its smaller area| long non-rainy season| and lack of storage facilities). In view of this| an attempt is made in the present study to investigate the potential impacts of climate change on rainfall in the Korean Peninsula. More specifically| the dynamics of 'present rainfall' and 'future rainfall' at the Seoul meteorological station in the Han River basin are examined and compared; monthly scale is considered in both cases. As for 'present rainfall|' two different data sets are used: (1) observed rainfall for the period 1971-1999; and (2) rainfall for the period 1951-1999 obtained through downscaling of coarse-scale climate outputs produced by the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research-Bergen Climate Model Version 2 (BCCR-BCM2.0) climate model with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) scenario. The 'future rainfall' (2000-2099) is obtained through downscaling of climate outputs projected by the BCCR-BCM2.0 with the A2 emission scenario. For downscaling of coarse-scale climate outputs to basin-scale rainfall| a K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) technique is used. Examination of the nature of rainfall dynamics is made through application of four methods: autocorrelation function| phase space reconstruction| correlation dimension| and close returns plot. The results are somewhat mixed| depending upon the method| as to whether the rainfall dynamics are chaotic or stochastic; however| the dynamics of the future rainfall seem more on the chaotic side than on the stochastic side| and more so when compared to that of the present rainfall. 12311,2011,2,4,Dynamical Role of Mode Water Ventilation in Decadal Variability in the Central Subtropical Gyre of the North Pacific,Decadal variability in the interior subtropical North Pacific is examined in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled model (CM2.1). Superimposed on a broad| classical subtropical gyre is a narrow jet called the subtropical countercurrent (STCC) that flows northeastward against the northeast trade winds. Consistent with observations| the STCC is anchored by mode water characterized by its low potential vorticity (PV). Mode water forms in the deep winter mixed layer of the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) east of Japan and flows southward riding on the subtropical gyre and preserving its low-PV characteristic. As a thick layer of uniform properties| the mode water forces the upper pycnocline to shoal| and the associated eastward shear results in the surface-intensified STCC. On decadal time scales in the central subtropical gyre (15 degrees-35 degrees N| 170 degrees E-130 degrees W)| the dominant mode of sea surface height variability is characterized by the strengthening and weakening of the STCC because of variations in mode water ventilation. The changes in mode water can be further traced upstream to variability in the mixed layer depth and subduction rate in the KOE region. Both the mean and anomalies of STCC induce significant sea surface temperature anomalies via thermal advection. Clear atmospheric response is seen in wind curls| with patterns suggestive of positive coupled feedback. In oceanic and coupled models| northeast-slanted bands often appear in anomalies of temperature and circulation at and beneath the surface. The results of this study show that such slanted bands are characteristic of changes in mode water ventilation. Indeed| this natural mode of STCC variability is excited by global warming| resulting in banded structures in sea surface warming. 12538,2011,2,4,Dynamics of gaseous nitrogen and carbon fluxes in riparian alder forests,We studied greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in two differently loaded riparian Alnus incana-dominated forests in agricultural landscapes of southern Estonia: a 33-year-old stand in Porijogi| in which the uphill agricultural activities had been abandoned since the middle of the 1990s. and a 50-year-old stand in Viiratsi| which still receives polluted lateral flow from uphill fields fertilized with pig slurry. In Porijogi| closed-chamber based sampling lasted from October 2001 to October 2009| whereas in Viiratsi the sampling period was from November 2003 to October 2009. Both temporal and spatial variations in all GHG gas fluxes were remarkable. Local differences in GHG fluxes between micro-sites ("Edge"| "Dry" and "Wet" in Porijogi| and "Wet"| "Slope" and "Dry" in Viiratsi) were sometimes greater than those between sites. Median values of GHG fluxes from both sites over the whole study period and all microsites did not differ significantly| being 45 and 42 mg CO(2)-C m(-2) h(-1)| 8 and 0.5 mu g CH(4)-C m(-2) h(-1)| 1.0 and 2.1 mg N(2)-N m(-2) h(-1)| and Sand 9 mu g N(2)O-N m(-2) h(-1)| in Porijogi and Viiratsi| respectively. The N(2):N(2)O ratio in Viiratsi (40-1200) was lower than in Porijogi (10-7600). The median values-based estimation of the Global Warming Potential of CH(4) and N(2)O was 19 and 185 kg CO(2) equivalents (eq) ha(-1) yr(-1) in Porijogi and 14 and 336 kg CO(2) eq ha(-1) yr(-1) in Viiratsi| respectively. A significant Spearman rank correlation was found between the mean monthly air temperature and CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2) fluxes in Porijogi| and N(2)O flux in Viiratsi| and between the monthly precipitation and CH(4) fluxes in both study sites. Higher groundwater level significantly increases CH(4) emission and decreases CO(2) and N(2)O emission| whereas higher soil temperature significantly increases N(2)O| CH(4) and N(2) emission values. In Porijogi| GHG emissions did not display any discernable trend| whereas in Viiratsi a significant increase in CO(2)| N(2)| and N(2)O emissions has been found. This may be a result of the age of the grey alder stand| but may also be caused by the long-term nutrient load of this riparian alder stand| which indicates a need for the management of similar heavily loaded riparian alder stands. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12236,2011,3,4,DYNAMICS OF METHANE EMISSION FROM FLODDED RICE SOILS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL,Paddy soils under flooded rice produce nearly 18% of all methane (CH(4)) emissions in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. However| CH(4) release depends on the intensity of soil reduction. The objective of this study was to evaluate the dynamics of emissions of this greenhouse gas from six representative soils [Albaqualf (2)| Endoaqualf (2)| Udorthent and Hapludoll] of rice cultivation in southern Brazil| to identify the relation with soil proprieties and electrochemical changes in the soil solution after flooding. The experiment was carried out in a greenhouse with three replications in a randomized block design. Rice was grown in PVC pots filled with soil and covered with a 10 cm water layer. CH(4) emissions were evaluated weekly from the 3(rd) to the 66(th) day after flooding| using a gas trap fixed on top of the pots. The gas was collected every five minutes| four times| to estimate CH(4) emission rates. Soil solution was collected and analyzed as well. The beginning of CH(4) emissions varied according to the soil type and usually occurred when 90 % of Fe(3+) had been reduced to Fe(2+) and pH and Eh stabilized. Total CH(4) emission varied from 8.5 to 44.2 g m(-2) and had a sigmoid relation to soil organic C (r(2) = 0.83| p < 0.05)| suggesting that C availability only limited methanogenesis when levels were below 8 g kg(-1) C soil. The results illustrate that the dynamics and total fluxes were strongly affected by the soil type and efforts must be directed toward determining CH(4) emission factors for the different representative soil types of rice cultivation in southern Brazil| and agricultural practices to mitigate greenhouse gases from the different soils should be evaluated. 12137,2011,2,4,Dynamics of the larch taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia under climate change,Larch taiga| also known as Siberian boreal forest| plays an important role in global and regional water-energy-carbon (WEC) cycles and in the climate system. Recent in situ observations have suggested that larch-dominated taiga and permafrost behave as a coupled eco-climate system across a broad boreal zone of Siberia. However| neither field-based observations nor modeling experiments have clarified the synthesized dynamics of this system. Here| using a new dynamic vegetation model coupled with a permafrost model| we reveal the processes of interaction between the taiga and permafrost. The model demonstrates that under the present climate conditions in eastern Siberia| larch trees maintain permafrost by controlling the seasonal thawing of permafrost| which in turn maintains the taiga by providing sufficient water to the larch trees. The experiment without permafrost processes showed that larch would decrease in biomass and be replaced by a dominance of pine and other species that suffer drier hydroclimatic conditions. In the coupled system| fire not only plays a destructive role in the forest| but also| in some cases| preserves larch domination in forests. Climate warming sensitivity experiments show that this coupled system cannot be maintained under warming of about 2 degrees C or more. Under such conditions| a forest with typical boreal tree species (dark conifer and deciduous species) would become dominant| decoupled from the permafrost processes. This study thus suggests that future global warming could drastically alter the larch-dominated taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia| with associated changes of WEC processes and feedback to climate. 11924,2011,2,4,Dynamics| deterministic nature and correlations of outdoor (222)Rn and (220)Rn progeny concentrations measured at Bacau| Romania,The long-term variation| nature and correlations of outdoor (222)Rn and (220)Rn progeny concentrations measured during the period 1994-2009 were investigated. The time series of data were obtained within the framework of the monitoring program performed by the Environmental Radioactivity Monitoring Station (ERMS) Bacau| a component part of the National Environmental Radioactivity Survey Network (NERSN)| coordinated by National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA). The measuring method is based on the total beta measurements of atmospheric aerosol filters| using a low background total beta counter and ((90)Sr/Y) reference standard. Analysis of the time series of progeny concentrations in the low atmosphere makes evident different patterns of variation of these concentrations: diurnal| seasonal and annual. A possible relationship of progeny concentration increase with global warming is emphasized. In order to find the dominant frequency of the physical processes determining progeny concentration variability the power spectrum has been used. The deterministic nature of the time series of concentrations has been studied making use of the autocorrelation function and stationarity of the original data and of their phase randomized time series. Also| the correlations with meteorological parameters have been investigated using Pearson's correlation coefficient with corresponding level of significance. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12803,2011,2,4,Earlier rice phenology as a result of climate change can increase the risk of cold damage during reproductive growth in northern Japan,The present study analyzed the impact of earlier rice phenology as a result of climate change on the risk of cold damage during reproductive growth using the historical temperature record from 1961 to 2010 at four locations in northern Japan. During this period| heading date has become 0.7-1.9 days earlier per 10 years. Air temperatures during the booting stage (6-15 days before heading) decreased by 0.18 degrees C per 10 years even though the air temperature on a given calendar date has increased slightly. The estimated potential yield losses caused by cold damage have increased since the start of the study period. Thus| the advance in phonological events as a result of global warming is likely to increase the risk of future yield losses| and this has important implications for future adaptation strategies (breeding new cultivars and changing crop management strategies) to reduce the risk of cold damage. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11853,2011,2,1,Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries,The Earth is warming on average| and most of the global warming of the past half-century can very likely be attributed to human influence. But the climate in particular locations is much more variable| raising the question of where and when local changes could become perceptible enough to be obvious to people in the form of local warming that exceeds interannual variability; indeed only a few studies have addressed the significance of local signals relative to variability. It is well known that the largest total warming is expected to occur in high latitudes| but high latitudes are also subject to the largest variability| delaying the emergence of significant changes there. Here we show that due to the small temperature variability from one year to another| the earliest emergence of significant warming occurs in the summer season in low latitude countries (approximate to 25 degrees S-25 degrees N). We also show that a local warming signal that exceeds past variability is emerging at present| or will likely emerge in the next two decades| in many tropical countries. Further| for most countries worldwide| a mean global warming of 1 degrees C is sufficient for a significant temperature change| which is less than the total warming projected for any economically plausible emission scenario. The most strongly affected countries emit small amounts of CO(2) per capita and have therefore contributed little to the changes in climate that they are beginning to experience. 3293,2011,5,4,Early Pleistocene formation of the asymmetric east-west pattern of upper water structure in the equatorial Pacific Ocean,Surface- and subsurface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from the upper 43 m of Hole A at the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 807| which was recovered from the western Pacific warm pool during ODP Leg 130| were analyzed for stable oxygen and carbon isotopes. By comparing these results with data from ODP Site 851 in the eastern equatorial Pacific| this study has reconstructed the paleoceanographic changes in upper ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific since 2.5 Ma. During the period from 1.6-1.4 Ma| the oxygen isotopes of surface and subsurface waters were found to markedly change in the western and eastern equatorial Pacific| further confirming the final formation of the well-defined asymmetric east-west (E-W) pattern at that time. This feature was similar to the zonal temperature gradient (sea surface temperature is higher in the west and lower in the east) and the asymmetric upper water structure (thermocline depth is deeper in the west and shallower in the east) in the modern equatorial Pacific. The zonal gradient change of subsurface water delta (18)O was greater than that of surface water delta (18)O| indicating that the formation of the asymmetric E-W pattern in the equatorial Pacific should be much more related to the shoaled thermocline and markedly decreased subsurface water temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Moreover| since similar to 1.6 Ma| the carbon isotopic differences between surface and subsurface waters clearly decreased in the equatorial Pacific| and their long-term eccentricity periods changed from 400 ka to similar to 500 ka| reflecting the reorganization of the ocean carbon reservoir. This probably resulted from the deep water reorganization in the Southern Ocean at that time and its enhanced influence on the tropical Pacific (especially subsurface water). Our study demonstrates that the tropical ocean plays an important role in global climate change. 12730,2011,4,1,Earth's energy imbalance and implications,Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is radiating to space as heat| even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance| 0.58 +/- 0.15Wm(-2) during the 6-yr period 2005-2010| confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change. Observed surface temperature change and ocean heat gain together constrain the net climate forcing and ocean mixing rates. We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be -1.6 +/- 0.3Wm(-2)| implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes. Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large forcing is untenable| as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change. We conclude that recent slowdown of ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. Observed sea level rise during the Argo float era is readily accounted for by ice melt and ocean thermal expansion| but the ascendency of ice melt leads us to anticipate acceleration of the rate of sea level rise this decade. 12020,2011,3,3,Eco-efficiency for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation of municipal solid waste management: A case study of Tianjin| China,The issue of municipal solid waste (MSW) management has been highlighted in China due to the continually increasing MSW volumes being generated and the limited capacity of waste treatment facilities. This article presents a quantitative eco-efficiency (E/E) analysis on MSW management in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. A methodology for E/E analysis has been proposed| with an emphasis on the consistent integration of life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). The environmental and economic impacts derived from LCA and LCC have been normalized and defined as a quantitative E/E indicator. The proposed method was applied in a case study of Tianjin| China. The study assessed the current MSW management system| as well as a set of alternative scenarios| to investigate trade-offs between economy and GHG emissions mitigation. Additionally| contribution analysis was conducted on both LCA and LCC to identify key issues driving environmental and economic impacts. The results show that the current Tianjin's MSW management system emits the highest GHG and costs the least| whereas the situation reverses in the integrated scenario. The key issues identified by the contribution analysis show no linear relationship between the global warming impact and the cost impact in MSW management system. The landfill gas utilization scenario is indicated as a potential optimum scenario by the proposed E/E analysis| given the characteristics of MSW| technology levels| and chosen methodologies. The E/E analysis provides an attractive direction towards sustainable waste management| though some questions with respect to uncertainty need to be discussed further. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11896,2011,3,4,Eco-efficiency in the production chain of Dutch semi-hard cheese,To achieve a sustainable cheese production chain| not only its ecological impact must be minimized| but economic value must be added along the chain also. The objectives of this study were to gain insight into ecological hotspots of the cheese chain| and to judge the ecological impact of chain stages in the context of their economic value added. A life cycle assessment (LCA) was performed to determine hotspots for global warming potential (GWP)| land use and fossil energy use during production of Dutch| semi-hard cheese. To place ecological impact in an economic perspective| eco-efficiency of chain stages was determined| which was defined as the ratio of gross value added| and ecological impact. LCA and economic computations were based on empirical data from a specific Dutch cheese chain. Production of 1 kg cheese resulted in a GWP of 8.5 kg CO(2)-eq.| and required 6.8 m(2) land and 47.2 MJ energy. Of all stages| on-farm milk production contributed most to GWP (65%)| and to land use (58%)| followed by cultivation of concentrate ingredients (12% to GWP and 24% to land use). Regarding energy use| cultivation of concentrate ingredients had the highest contribution (33%). The after farm gate stages cheese-making| storage| and packaging each contributed about 7%-13% to energy use and about 3%-4% to GWP| whereas retail had a marginal impact. To decrease the ecological impact of cheese production| reducing the impact of on-farm milk production (e.g.| by using feed ingredients that reduce enteric methane emission in the cow)| and reducing the impact of cultivation of concentrate ingredients (e.g.| by using locally produced ingredients or by-products) would be most effective. Stages after farm gate can lower their impact by minimizing use of fossil energy and use of alternative energy resources. Minimizing losses of milk and cheese in stages after farm gate| furthermore| is an important improvement option to reduce the impact per kg cheese of the whole chain. Total gross value added of the whole chain was (sic)5.94 per kg cheese. On-farm milk production added most economic value (34%)| followed by retail (27%)| cheese-making (17%)| and packaging (17%). Total eco-efficiency of cheese was (sic)0.78 per kg CO(2)-eq.| (sic)1.03 per m(2) land| and (sic)0.16 per MJ energy. Of all stages| cultivation of concentrate ingredients and storage had the lowest eco-efficiency for each impact| whereas retail had the highest. Combining ecological impact and eco-efficiency| shows that cultivation of concentrate ingredients is the most problematic stage. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12484,2011,3,4,Eco-efficiency of H(2) and fuel cell buses,Urban governments are continually striving to improve air quality by making public transportation more environmentally friendly. H(2) fuel cell buses (FCBs) offer one of the best ways to reduce air pollution. FCB has high energy efficiency and lower air pollutant emissions than conventional buses (e.g. diesel bus/Compressed natural gas bus| CNGB)| and H(2) is an attractive alternative energy source in the face of depleting fossil fuels and global warming. H(2) can be produced via fossil fuels and renewable sources and then stored and distributed in a variety of different ways. While many contend that H(2) and FCB are not yet commercially viable| H(2) technology has developed a great deal over recent years. This fact alone demands that governments as well as for-profit businesses take a discerning look at what H(2) and FCB have to offer in terms of both environmental and economic opportunities. In this study| environmental and economic aspects of hydrogen pathways are analyzed according to plausible production methods and capacity| and distribution options in Korea using life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC) methods. This study considers the following means of hydrogen production: naphtha steam reforming (Naphtha SR)| natural gas steam reforming (NG SR)| and water electrolysis (WE). Additionally| conventional fuels (Diesel and CNG) are also included as target fuel pathways in order to identify which hydrogen pathway in particular has the greatest environmental advantage over conventional fuels. This study aimed to identify whether H(2) and FCB can compete with conventional fuels used in buses in terms of the eco-efficiency method| which focuses on economic feasibility and environmental improvement. The conclusion of this study is that H(2) pathways| especially| Naphtha SR [C] and NG SR [S]| are more competitive than conventional fuels from an eco-efficiency perspective. As a result| switching from conventional transportation fuel to these suggested H(2) pathways is expected to offer an economically and environmentally more eco-efficient means of transportation. Henceforth| drawing upon evidence within this report| decision-makers would be wise to invest in more cost-effective and environment-friendly fuels by constructing an optimal H(2) infrastructure. (C) 2010 Professor T. Nejat Veziroglu. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11894,2011,3,3,Ecological and economic evaluation of Dutch egg production systems,The upcoming ban on battery cages in the European Union is expected to cause a shift in husbandry systems from predominantly battery cages to enriched cages and loose housing systems| such as barn| free range and organic systems. To gain insight into ecological and economic consequences of such a ban| we quantified the ecological and economic performance of the most commonly used egg production systems in the Netherlands| and identified which parameters explain differences in performance. We included the conventional battery cage system and the following loose housing systems: single and multi-tiered barn systems| single and multi-tiered free range systems| and single and multi-tiered organic systems. Ecological indicators used were deduced from a life cycle assessment| and were: global warming potential| energy use| land occupation| fossil phosphorus use| acidification potential| nitrogen and phosphorus deficit| and nitrogen and phosphorus surplus| each expressed per kg of egg. Economic indicator used was net farm income per full time employee. Based on our ecological evaluation of Dutch egg production systems| we predict that a ban on battery cages in the European Union will increase global warming potential| land occupation and acidification potential per kg of egg produced| whereas the effect on energy use| fossil phosphorus use| nitrogen and phosphorus deficit| and nitrogen and phosphorus surplus depends on relative importance of different loose housing systems. Of all loose housing systems| organic systems had lowest global warming potential| energy use| fossil phosphorus use| and nitrogen and phosphorus surplus| whereas land occupation and nitrogen and phosphorus deficit was lowest for barn systems. Acidification potential was lowest for a multi-tiered barn system. Differences in LCA results among production systems can be explained mainly by differences; in feed conversion| in parameters that determine ecological impact per kg feed ingredient (e.g.| crop yield per ha; number field operations| type and amount of fertilization)| in drying of grain| in transport of concentrates and manure| in type of hen house and in N excretion per hen per year. Free range systems had highest net farm income| followed by organic systems. Multi-tiered systems had a higher net farm income than single-tiered systems. In case differences among egg and cost prices of different systems do not change after a ban on the battery cage| multitiered free range and organic systems are economically most favourable. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
3298,2011,2,4,Ecological factors associated with dengue fever in a central highlands Province| Vietnam,Background: Dengue is a leading cause of severe illness and hospitalization in Vietnam. This study sought to elucidate the linkage between climate factors| mosquito indices and dengue incidence. Methods: Monthly data on dengue cases and mosquito larval indices were ascertained between 2004 and 2008 in the Dak Lak province (Vietnam). Temperature| sunshine| rainfall and humidity were also recorded as monthly averages. The association between these ecological factors and dengue was assessed by the Poisson regression model with adjustment for seasonality. Results: During the study period| 3|502 cases of dengue fever were reported. Approximately 72% of cases were reported from July to October. After adjusting for seasonality| the incidence of dengue fever was significantly associated with the following factors: higher household index (risk ratio [RR]: 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.62-1.70 per 5% increase)| higher container index (RR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.73-1.83 per 5% increase)| and higher Breteau index (RR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.53-1.60 per 5 unit increase). The risk of dengue was also associated with elevated temperature (RR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.25-1.55 per 2 degrees C increase)| higher humidity (RR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.51-1.67 per 5% increase)| and higher rainfall (RR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.21-1.74 per 50 mm increase). The risk of dengue was inversely associated with duration of sunshine| the number of dengue cases being lower as the sunshine increases (RR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.73-0.79 per 50 hours increase). Conclusions: These data suggest that indices of mosquito and climate factors are main determinants of dengue fever in Vietnam. This finding suggests that the global climate change will likely increase the burden of dengue fever infection in Vietnam| and that intensified surveillance and control of mosquito during high temperature and rainfall seasons may be an important strategy for containing the burden of dengue fever. 12433,2011,3,3,ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS ON ENERGY ALTERNATIVES FOR A CLEAN AIR - HYDROPOWER PLANTS,The phenomenon of climate change and its main effect| the global warming| is more and more present at the planetary level. The reduction of the greenhouse gas emissions represents a way to avoid significant environmental degradation by climate change. The use of renewable energy offers a "clean" alternative for energy production| which allows considerable reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissons. Romania| as part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and of the Kyoto Protocol| and also as a EU member| committed to contribute to the global effort for GHG emissions mitigation. Starling from the significant potential of Romania's hydropower resources| the following paper presents an estimation of GMG emissions reduction by using hydropower energy. 11939,2011,3,4,Economic and environmental viability analysis for a photovoltaic-powered LED system in tunnel illumination,In this study| we conduct an economical and environmental viability analysis for a photovoltaic-powered tunnel illumination system in Aydin| Turkey. Recently| the rapid depletion of fossil fuels and global warming concerns render the renewable energy resources as major solutions for the global energy problem. Our study focuses on solar energy and its application to tunnel illumination. One of the longest tunnels in Turkey is considered for the analysis| and three alternative systems are proposed for replacing the current system in the tunnel that uses the grid power. A detailed cost and feasibility analysis is performed for the alternatives| taking into account the time value of money in an inflationary economy. Net present worth| payback period and internal rate of return calculations are used for analytical purposes. The environmental viability is assessed via the computation of resulting reduction in CO(2) emissions by the proposed systems. Results indicate that the proposed systems are more advantageous than the existing one. 12015,2011,3,4,Economic and European Union Environmental Sustainability Criteria Assesment of Bio-Oil-Based Biofuel Systems: Refinery Integration Cases,The biofuel mix in transport in the U.K. must be increased from currently exploited 3.33% to the EU target mix of 10% by 2020. Under the face of this huge challenge| the most viable way forward is to process infrastructure-compatible intermediate| such as bio-oil from fast pyrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass| into biofuels. New facilities may integrate multiple distributed pyrolysis units producing bio-oil from locally available biomass and centralized biofuel production platforms| such as methanol or Fischer-Tropsch liquid synthesis utilizing syngas derived from gasification of bio-oil. An alternative to bio-oil gasification is hydrotreating and hydrocracking (upgrading) of bio-oil into stable oil with reduced oxygen content. The stable oil can then be coprocessed into targeted transportation fuel mix within refinery in exchange of refinery hydrogen to the upgrader. This Article focuses on the evaluation of economic and environmental sustainability of industrial scale biofuel production systems from bio-oils. An overview of bio-oil gasification-based system evaluation is presented| while comprehensive process reaction modeling (with 40 overall bio-oil hydrocracking and hydrotreating reaction steps)| simulation| integration| and value analysis frameworks are illustrated for bio-oil upgrading and refinery coprocessing systems. The environmental analysis shows that the former technologies are able to meet the minimum greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target of 60%| to be eligible for the European Union (EU) Directive's 2020 target of 10% renewable energy in transport| while at least 20% renewable energy mix from an upgrader is required for meeting the EU GHG emission reduction target. Increases in the price of biodiesel and hydrogen make coprocessing of stable oils from bio-oil upgrader using refinery facilities economically more favorable than final biofuel blending from refineries and create win-win economic scenarios between the bio-oil upgrader and the refinery. The range of the cost of production (COP) of stable oil (328 MW or 0.424 t/t bio-oil)| steam (49.5 MW or 0.926 t/t bio-oil)| and off-gas or fuel gas (72.3 MW or 0.142 t/t bio-oil) from a bio-oil (LHV of 23.3 MJ/kg) upgrader process is evaluated on the basis of individual product energy values and global warming potential (GWP) impacts. The minimum and the maximum annualized capital charges predicted by the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis correspond to 25 operating years and 10% IRR| and 10 operating years and 20% IRR respectively. On the basis of this DCF strategy and 1200 $/t of hydrogen and 540 $/t of biodiesel market prices| the selling prices of 259.32 $/t| 34.85 $/t| and 174.27 $/t of the stable oil| steam| and fuel gas| respectively| from the upgrader to the refinery were obtained to create win-win marginal incentive for the upgrader and refinery systems| individually. If stable oil from a bio-oil upgrader can be launched as a product potentially to be used in refinery hydrocracker (at a competitive price of 490 $/t)| for the production of renewable diesel| upgrader can be operated independently| such as purchase hydrogen from vendors at competitive price| with comparative marginal incentives. The bio-oil upgraders| either stand-alone or integrated| were designed to meet desired product specifications| diesel with specific gravity 0.825 and cetane number 57 and stable oil with API 30.1 and cetane number 28.7| for coprocessing through the refinery hydrocracker| respectively. 3363,2011,4,3,Economic growth| energy conservation and emissions reduction: A comparative analysis based on panel data for 8 Asian-Pacific countries,This study was conducted to evaluate the causality between energy consumption| GDP growth and carbon emissions for eight Asia-Pacific countries from 1971 to 2005 using the panel data. The results indicate that there are long-run equilibrium relationships between these variables. Additionally| causality from energy consumption to CO(2) emissions was observed generally| but there were some opposite relationships also. Parameter estimations of the panel data model indicate that there are great differences in the carbon emissions| the efficiencies of energy use| carbon emissions of unit GDP and unit energy consumption between developed and developing countries. The base carbon emissions| per capita energy consumption and efficiency of energy use in developing countries are far lower than in developed countries; however| the CO(2) emissions per unit of energy use is higher. Although developing countries may reduce their CO(2) emission per unit energy use| total energy consumption will rise rapidly with economic development. Thus| developing countries must determine how to undergo economic growth while conserving energy and reducing emissions. To respond to global climate change| it is necessary to develop innovative technology for energy use| transform the energy structure and conduct the clean development mechanism. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11928,2011,2,4,Ecophysiological responses to temperature of the "killer shrimp" Dikerogammarus villosus: Is the invader really stronger than the native Gammarus pulex?,With global climate changes| biological invasions are considered to be one of the main causes of the decline of freshwater biodiversity. In this context| predicted increases in global temperature may alter the geographical distributions of native and invasive species. The purpose of our study was to examine the metabolic| behavioral and physiological responses to short-term temperature acclimation of two widely distributed species (the most successful European invader| Dikerogammarus villosus| and its main victim| Gammarus pulex)| in order to estimate the potential effect of global warming on its invasion of freshwater ecosystems. Our results show that D. villosus is more vulnerable to high temperatures than G. pulex. The native species seems to be best adapted to intermediate temperatures (10-20 degrees C) with a possibility of adjustment to "extreme" temperatures (5-27 degrees C)| whereas the "killer shrimp" D. villosus seems best adapted to lower temperatures (5-10 degrees C) with a limited possibility of adjustment above 20 degrees C In the light of our results| global warming is likely to be less favorable to the invasive species. However| D. villosus showed reduced metabolic and activity rates| associated with higher glycogen content. This adaptive strategy was interpreted as having functional advantages| allowing D. villosus to successfully invade harsh and/or unpredictable biotopes. In addition| our results show that glycogen stores may be used as a powerful indicator of the optimal thermal window for aquatic ectotherms. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 3297,2011,2,4,Ecotone characteristics of a southern Appalachian Mountain wetland,Southern Appalachian Mountain wetlands support important habitat and serve several hydrologic functions. However| they may be threatened by human activities and global climate change. These wetlands are often located in remote| biogeographically isolated locations at high elevations. One of the largest of these wetlands the peatlands within the Cranberry Glades Botanical Area was assessed for meadow-forest ecotone characteristics. The Cranberry Glades have been reported to be infilling with trees from the surrounding forest| but little research has been conducted on the patterns of tree growth within the moss-dominated communities. Tree establishment patterns were analyzed in regard to location within the ecotone| hummock/hollow topography| and soil conditions by recording the growing conditions of 1389 trees located within nine| 10 x 100 m belt transects. The results indicated that tree growth within the ecotone occurred in decreasing density from the forest to the meadow interior| and much of the tree establishment occurred in tree islands (80% of trees were found in tree islands). Significantly more trees (92%) were also found on hummocks than hollows (8%)| likely in response to the greater distance from the water table that the hummocks provide. Most soil properties did not vary significantly across the ecotone or in association with topography. The results add to the minimal literature on southern peatlands and may assist in peatland restoration and conservation efforts. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12090,2011,2,4,Ecotypes of European grass species respond differently to warming and extreme drought,P>1. Climate extremes are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming. 2. Managed permanent grasslands cover a large surface in Europe and contribute substantially to agricultural production. These managed plant communities are dominated by perennial clonal species. Their capacity to adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions may be limited. 3. We hypothesize that those plant populations that have already been exposed to conditions that are expected to occur due to future climate change| particularly conditions that would be 'extreme' in the target area| are able to cope better with these conditions. 4. For a common-garden experiment we selected ecotypes (provenances as supported by accessions in seed banks) of important European grass species: Arrhenatherum elatius| Festuca pratensis| Holcus lanatus and Alopecurus pratensis. Southern target locations of ecotypes (populations) were identified based on climate model projections for the local site in Northern Bavaria| Germany. 5. In a controlled experiment| the plants were exposed to warming and extreme drought. Drought conditions(16-19 days| depending on the species) were imposed starting from the end of May in combination with and without an increase in the average temperature from May to September 2009 (+1.5 K compared with control; +2.5 K compared with ambient conditions outside of the experimental units). 6. Ecotypes and drought manipulation had significant impacts on biomass production and tissue die-back. Significant interactions between ecotype and drought indicated a different drought tolerance of the ecotypes in some cases. The warming treatment yielded a less significant response. The local ecotype generally did not perform significantly worse than the presumably better-adapted southern ecotypes. 7. Synthesis. The selection of ecotypes that are adapted to more extreme climatic conditions could be an option for maintaining future ecosystem functioning in temperate managed grasslands| as was indicated by the clear differences between ecotypes in our experiment. Based on our data| however| performance cannot be predicted from climatic origin. Therefore| we recommend enhancing the genetic variability within populations of species in general. 12414,2011,3,3,Eddy covariance flux measurements confirm extreme CH(4) emissions from a Swiss hydropower reservoir and resolve their short-term variability,Greenhouse gas budgets quantified via land-surface eddy covariance (EC) flux sites differ significantly from those obtained via inverse modeling. A possible reason for the discrepancy between methods may be our gap in quantitative knowledge of methane (CH(4)) fluxes. In this study we carried out EC flux measurements during two intensive campaigns in summer 2008 to quantify methane flux from a hydropower reservoir and link its temporal variability to environmental driving forces: water temperature and pressure changes (atmospheric and due to changes in lake level). Methane fluxes were extremely high and highly variable| but consistently showed gas efflux from the lake when the wind was approaching the EC sensors across the open water| as confirmed by floating chamber flux measurements. The average flux was 3.8 +/- 0.4 mu g C m(-2) s(-1) (mean +/- SE) with a median of 1.4 mu g C m(-2) s(-1)| which is quite high even compared to tropical reservoirs. Floating chamber fluxes from four selected days confirmed such high fluxes with 7.4 +/- 1.3 mu g C m(-2) s(-1). Fluxes increased exponentially with increasing temperatures| but were decreasing exponentially with increasing atmospheric and/or lake level pressure. A multiple regression using lake surface temperatures (0.1 m depth)| temperature at depth (10 m deep in front of the dam)| atmospheric pressure| and lake level was able to explain 35.4% of the overall variance. This best fit included each variable averaged over a 9-h moving window| plus the respective short-term residuals thereof. We estimate that an annual average of 3% of the particulate organic matter (POM) input via the river is sufficient to sustain these large CH(4) fluxes. To compensate the global warming potential associated with the CH(4) effluxes from this hydropower reservoir a 1.3 to 3.7 times larger terrestrial area with net carbon dioxide uptake is needed if a European-scale compilation of grass-lands| croplands and forests is taken as reference. This indicates the potential relevance of temperate reservoirs and lakes in local and regional greenhouse gas budgets. 12199,2011,2,4,Effect of changes in season and temperature on mortality associated with air pollution in Seoul| Korea,Backgrounds Global warming has increased concern about the synergistic or interactive effects of temperature and air pollution on human health. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of changes in season and temperature on mortality associated with air pollution in Seoul| Korea| from June 1999 to December 2007. Methods We used Poisson regression models with natural cubic splines. The effect of modifications was explored with two models: a time-varying coefficient model and a temperature-stratified model. Results In the summer season with high temperatures| we observed a considerable increase in the association between mortality and air pollution. The elevated risk was pronounced particularly in the effect of SO(2)| and the increase of RR on non-accidental mortality was 0.83% (95% CI 0.42 to 1.25) at high temperatures (>= 26.2 degrees C) whereas the overall estimate was 0.21% (95% CI 0.07 to 0.36) per 0.5 ppb increment of SO(2). Those aged 65 y and over generally showed a higher risk of mortality. At extremely high temperature| the age group 85 y and older was especially vulnerable to air pollution. In a two-pollutant model| the significant effect of SO(2) at high temperatures (>= 26.2 degrees C) was not confounded by adjusting for other pollutants and the effect of CO at temperatures of 19.1-26.2 degrees C remained largely unchanged by adjusting for other pollutants. The dominant adverse effect of SO(2) at high temperatures might be explained by an increase in concentration of sulfates by enhanced photochemical reaction| whereas at milder temperatures without vigorous photochemical activity the effect of CO may predominate in increasing mortality. Conclusions Season and temperature strongly modified the adverse effect of air pollution| which implicates that an increase in the number of hot summer days by global warming may alter the health effects of air pollution. 12563,2011,2,4,Effect of Climate Change on Seasonal Foraging Activity of Termites (Isoptera),Seasonal foraging activity of termites depends principally on air temperatures which are increasing in recent years due to global warming. To examine the seasonal foraging activity of termites| a walking belt transects of 1 m wide was randomly laid every two weeks in four plots. Inside the frame of each plot| 100 wood logs were examined for the presence or absence of termites during one year. To determine the effect of temperature on termite foraging activity| the relation between the monthly mean temperatures (maximum and minimum) and the termite foraging activity were analyzed. The effect of climate change on this activity was analyzed by comparing our results with a previous study. In our study period| termites foraged throughout all the year. Their activities were low (but occurred) in winter. Foraging increased significantly in summer| reaching a maximum in autumn (especially for Odontoterms formosanus). Odontotermes species were the most active termites in our study sites. The species of this genus attacked 23% of the examined wood logs. Odontotermes dimorphus was also recorded for the first time in Hangzhou. The foraging activity of termites was positively correlated with air temperature. The occurrence of termite activity in winter and the presence of O. dimorphus in our study sites could be a result of global warming. We suggest that any management strategy against termites in these sites should be carried out at the period of high foraging activity. 12802,2011,2,4,Effect of elevated tropospheric ozone on methane and nitrous oxide emission from rice soil in north India,Physiological changes in crop plants in response to the elevated tropospheric ozone (O(3)) may alter N and C cycles in soil. This may also affect the atmosphere-biosphere exchange of radiatively important greenhouse gases (GHGs)| e.g. methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) from soil. A study was carried out during July to November of 2007 and 2008 in the experimental farm of Indian Agricultural Research Institute| New Delhi to assess the effects of elevated tropospheric ozone on methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice (Oryza sativa L) soil. Rice crop was grown in open top chambers (OTC) under elevated ozone (EO)| non-filtered air (NF)| charcoal filtered air (CF) and ambient air (AA). Seasonal mean concentrations of O(3) were 4.3 +/- 0.9| 26.2 +/- 1.9| 59.1 +/- 4.2 and 27.5 +/- 2.3 ppb during year 2007 and 5.9 +/- 1.1| 37.2 +/- 2.5| 69.7 +/- 3.9 and 39.2 +/- 1.8 ppb during year 2008 for treatments CF| NF| EO and AA| respectively. Cumulative seasonal CH(4) emission reduced by 29.7% and 40.4% under the elevated ozone (EO) compared to the non-filtered air (NF)| whereas the emission increased by 21.5% and 16.7% in the charcoal filtered air (CF) in 2007 and 2008| respectively. Cumulative seasonal emission of N(2)O ranged from 47.8 mg m(-2) in elevated ozone to 54.6 mg m(-2) in charcoal filtered air in 2007 and from 46.4 to 62.1 mg m(-2) in 2008. Elevated ozone reduced grain yield by 11.3% and 12.4% in 2007 and 2008| respectively. Global warming potential (GWP) per unit of rice yield was the least under elevated ozone levels. Dissolved organic C content of soil was lowest under the elevated ozone treatment. Decrease in availability of substrate i.e.| dissolved organic C under elevated ozone resulted in a decline in GHG emissions. Filtration of ozone from ambient air increased grain yield and growth parameters of rice and emission of GHGs. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12306,2011,2,4,Effect of high water temperature during vegetative growth on rice growth and yield under a cool climate,Global warming is likely to increase spring temperatures in regions with a cool climate. To examine the effects of this change on rice productivity| we exposed rice plants to a higher (by +2.7 to +2.8 degrees C) water temperature (T(w)) during the vegetative growth period (for 35-50 days) under three levels of N fertilization. High T(w) during vegetative growth made the heading stage occur 4-7 days earlier for all levels of N fertilization in both years. The crop growth rate during the treatment period was greatly enhanced by high T(w): by 51-82% in 2008 and by 49-62% in 2009. There was no T(w) x N fertilizer interaction. This increased growth was associated with increased leaf expansion and increased canopy radiation capture rather than with increased radiation-use efficiency. However| the positive effect decreased during subsequent growth stages under all levels of N fertilization| leading to no significant differences in total biomass at maturity. High T(w) during vegetative growth greatly reduced SPAD values during the grain-filling stage compared with SPAD values in the control T(w) treatment| for all levels of N fertilization| and decreased leaf photosynthesis during the mid-grain filling stage. Grain yield was not significantly affected by high T(w) at any N fertilizer level or in either year. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12522,2011,3,3,Effect of multiple-feedstock strategy on the economic and environmental performance of thermochemical ethanol production under extreme weather conditions,Current US transportation sector mainly relies on liquid hydrocarbons derived from petroleum and about 60% of the petroleum consumed is from areas where supply may be disturbed by regional instability. This has led to serious concerns on energy security and global warming. To address these issues| numerous alternative energy carriers have been proposed. Among them| second generation biofuel is one of the most promising technologies. Gasification-based thermochemical conversion will bring flexibility to both feedstock and production sides of a plant| thus presents an attractive technical route to address both the energy security and global warming concerns. In this paper| thermochemical ethanol production using multiple-feedstock (corn stover| municipal solid waste| and wood chips) is simulated using Aspen Plus and compared with the single-feedstock scenario| in terms of economic performances| life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and survivability under extreme weather conditions. For a hypothetical facility in southwest Indiana it is found that multiple-feedstock strategy improves the net present value by 18% compared to single-feedstock strategy. This margin is increased to 57% when effects of extreme weather conditions on feedstock supply are considered. Moreover| multiple-feedstock fuel plant has no potential risk of bankruptcy during the payback period| while single-feedstock fuel plant has a 75% chance of bankruptcy. Although the multiple-feedstock strategy has 26% more GHG emission per liter of ethanol produced than the single-feedstock strategy| the trend is reversed if feedstock supply disruption is taken into account. Thus the idea of multiple-feedstock strategy is proposed to the future thermo chemical biofuel plants. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11679,2011,3,4,Effect of nitrogen addition on decomposition of Calamagrostis angustifolia litters from freshwater marshes of Northeast China,Wetland ecosystems store a large amount of organic carbon (C) in soils| due to the slow decomposition rates of plant litter and soil organic matter. Increased nitrogen (N) availability induced by human activities and global warming may accelerate litter decomposition and affect soil organic C dynamics in wetlands. In the present study| we investigated the effect of N addition on decomposition of Calamagrostis angustifolia litters from freshwater marshes in the Sanjiang Plain of Northeast China under field and laboratory conditions. First| we assessed the changes in initial litter chemical composition and subsequent decomposition following three years of N addition at the rate of 24 g N m(-2) year(-1) under field conditions. Our results showed that N addition increased litter N concentration and decreased C/N ratio| and thus stimulated litter decomposition. Secondly| we examined the effect of increased N availability (0| 25| 50 and 100 mg N g(-1) litter) on litter decomposition under laboratory conditions. Increased exterior N availability also enhanced microbial respiration and increased litter mass loss under both waterlogging and non-waterlogging conditions. In addition| waterlogging conditions inhibited microbial respiration and suppressed litter mass loss. These findings demonstrated that N addition increased litter decomposition rates through improved litter quality and enhanced microbial activity in freshwater marshes of Northeast China. This implies that increased N availability accelerates litter decomposition rates| and thus may cause substantial losses of soil C and diminish and even reverse the C sink function of wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of Northeast China. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12363,2011,3,3,Effect of sugarcane harvesting systems on soil carbon stocks in Brazil: an examination of existing data,Agricultural management practices that promote net carbon (C) accumulation in the soil have been considered as an important potential mitigation option to combat global warming. The change in the sugarcane harvesting system| to one which incorporates C into the soil from crop residues| is the focus of this work. The main objective was to assess and discuss the changes in soil organic C stocks caused by the conversion of burnt to unburnt sugarcane harvesting systems in Brazil| when considering the main soils and climates associated with this crop. For this purpose| a dataset was obtained from a literature review of soils under sugarcane in Brazil. Although not necessarily from experimental studies| only paired comparisons were examined| and for each site the dominant soil type| topography and climate were similar. The results show a mean annual C accumulation rate of 1.5 Mg ha-1 year-1 for the surface to 30-cm depth (0.73 and 2.04 Mg ha-1 year-1 for sandy and clay soils| respectively) caused by the conversion from a burnt to an unburnt sugarcane harvesting system. The findings suggest that soil should be included in future studies related to life cycle assessment and C footprint of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol. 11632,2011,2,4,Effect of temperature on biogeochemistry of marine organic-enriched systems: implications in a global warming scenario,Coastal biogeochemical cycles are expected to be affected by global warming. By means of a mesocosm experiment| the effect of increased water temperature on the biogeochemical cycles of coastal sediments affected by organic-matter enrichment was tested| focusing on the carbon| sulfur| and iron cycles. Nereis diversicolor was used as a model species to simulate macrofaunal bioirrigation activity in natural sediments. Although bioirrigation rates of N. diversicolor were not temperature dependent| temperature did have a major effect on the sediment metabolism. Under organic-enrichment conditions| the increase in sediment metabolism was greater than expected and occurred through the enhancement of anaerobic metabolic pathway rates| mainly sulfate reduction. There was a twofold increase in sediment metabolism and the accumulation of reduced sulfur. The increase in the benthic metabolism was maintained by the supply of electron acceptors through bioirrigation and as a result of the availability of iron in the sediment. As long as the sediment buffering capacity toward sulfides is not surpassed| an increase in temperature might promote the recovery of organic-enriched sediments by decreasing the time for mineralization of excess organic matter. 12669,2011,3,4,Effect of the global warming and energy consumption on residential buildings for environmental sustainability: a case study in Turkey,There are significant evidences that the world is warming. The International Panel of Climate Change stated that there would be a steady increase in the ambient temperature during the end of the 21st century. This increase will impact the built environment| particularly the requirements of energy consumption in residential buildings. In this case| there is a need to measure sustainable planning practices in building construction projects. Research has shown a relationship between planning and better project performance and between more sustainable planning and better project performance. This paper presents global warming and energy consumption on residential buildings for environmental sustainability. 11754,2011,2,3,Effect of the potential melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the Meridional Overturning Circulation and global climate in the future,Multiple recent observations indicate an accelerated mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet since the mid-1990s. This increased ice sheet mass loss might be an evidence of global warming and could be related to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Here| we use the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 3 to assess the potential influence of a shrinking Greenland Ice Sheet on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)| the surface climate| and sea level in the next two centuries under the IPCC A1B scenario with prescribed rates of Greenland Ice Sheet melting. Results show that a low rate of Greenland melting will not significantly alter the MOC. However a moderate or high rate of Greenland melting does make the MOC weaken further. This further weakened MOC will not make the global climate in the next two centuries cooler than in the late 20th century| but will lessen the warming| especially in the northern high latitudes. Moreover| the sea level changes due to steric effect and ocean dynamics could potentially aggravate the sea level problem near the northeast North America coast and the islands in the western Pacific region. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12859,2011,3,4,Effect of the solid content on biogas production from Jatropha curcas seed cake,Anaerobic conversion of Jatropha curcas seed cake was studied in a five-litre working volume batch reactor at 30 degrees C. Over a 60-day operating period| a slurry of seed cake in water at a 1 : 20 seed cake-to-water ratio showed the highest methane yield of 296 litre methane/kg Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) degraded (or 156 litre/kg of Jatropha curcas seed cake added) and achieved 52% COD removal. The results revealed that Jatropha curcas seed cake treated anaerobically can be a good source of methane| with optimal seed cake-to-water ratio in the range of 1 : 20 to 1 : 10. 12627,2011,3,4,Effect of timing and duration of midseason aeration on CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from irrigated lowland rice paddies in China,Midseason aeration (MSA) of rice paddy fields functions to mitigate CH(4) emission by a large margin| while simultaneously promoting N(2)O emission. Alternation of timing and duration of MSA would affect CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from intermittently irrigated rice paddies. A pot trial and a field experiment were conducted to study the effect of timing and duration of MSA on CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from irrigated lowland rice paddy soils in China. Four different water regimes| i.e.| early aeration| normal aeration (the same as the local practice in timing and duration of aeration)| delayed aeration| and prolonged aeration| were adopted separately and compared with respect to global warming potential (GWP) of CH(4) and N(2)O emissions and rice yields as well. Total emission of CH(4) from the rice fields ranged from 28.6 to 64.1 kg CH(4) ha(-1)| while that of N(2)O did from 1.71 to 6.30 kg N(2)O-N ha(-1) during the study periods. Compared with the local practice| early aeration reduced CH(4) emission by 13.3-16.2% and increased N(2)O emission by 19.1-68.8%| while delayed aeration reduced N(2)O emission by 6.8-26.0% and increased CH(4) emission by 22.1-47.3%. The lowest GWP of CH(4) and N(2)O emissions occurred in prolonged aeration treatment| however| rice grain yield was reduced by 15.3% in this condition when compared with normal practice. It was found in the experiments that midseason aeration starting around D 30 after rice transplanting| just like the local practice| would optimize rice yields while simultaneously limiting GWPs of CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from irrigated lowland rice fields in China. 12498,2011,2,4,Effect of variable and constant thermal conditions on embryonic and early larval development of fish from the genus Leuciscus (Cyprinidae| Teleostei),The aim of this study was to determine the effects of variable and constant thermal conditions on embryonic development of three endangered fish species from the genus Leuciscus. Wild living spawners of dace Leuciscus leuciscus (L.)| ide L. idus (L.) and chub L. cephalus (L.) were obtained from rivers belonging to the Pasleka River basin (northeastern Poland) and next transported to a hatchery for the purpose of conducting artificial reproduction. The obtained eggs were fertilized and next incubated under a variety of thermal protocols: slow gradual heating of water (M1)| rapid increase in temperature at the end of incubation (M2)| fluctuating temperature (M3) and two constant temperatures (optimum and sublethal). Variable thermal changes of water were also continued after hatching| up to the yolk sac resorption by larvae. During the study it was shown that relative to incubation at optimal temperatures (12.3 degrees C for dace| 15.7 degrees C for ide and 19.0 degrees C for chub)| thermal modifications had no clear influence on a decrease in survival rates (differences among regimes did not exceed 5%) and increase in developmental deformations (differences below 1.0%) observed among the hatched embryos. The duration of egg incubation and developmental rate increased with increasing temperature. In the systems with modified temperature the embryonic development of dace (from fertilisation to commencement of exogenous food intake) took from 9.5 to 22.5 days| for ide from 6.1 to 12 days and for chub from 5.0 to 10.5 days. The yolk sac resorption stage in the particular species occurred from 11.7 to 23 days for dace| 7.5 to 13.2 days for ide and 5.5 to 12.8 days for chub. Different time of hatching was also reflected in the level of ontogeny of hatched embryos. Among the fish hatched at modified temperatures the largest sizes| similar to those characteristic of fish incubated at optimum temperatures| were observed in individuals originating from variants where the temperature fluctuated. The developmental disproportions among the embryos of studied species originating from different thermal regimes observed at the time of leaving the egg shells were definitely larger than during the following development stages. This study also confirmed that the embryos of studied species can adapt to increasing water temperature due to global warming up to 19.0 (dace)| 23.0 degrees C (ide) and 27.5 degrees C (chub). The obtained results are very important not only for practical purposes but also from physiological and ecological aspects. 3473,2011,2,4,Effect of water availability on physiological performance and lettuce crop yield (Lactuca sativa),M.A. Molina-Montenegro| A. Zurita-Silva| and R. Oses. 2011. Effect of water availability on physiological performance and lettuce crop yield (Lactuca sativa). Cien. Inv. Agr. 38(1): 65-74. Water is essential for plants| affecting the majority of the physiological processes related to growth and productivity. Water shortage is one of the most common factors that limit crop productivity worldwide. Many cultivars have elevated water requirements| nevertheless in some countries due to global climate change effects| the availability of water for irrigation is becoming limited. In fact| current models of climate changes predict that central Chile will be a sensitive zone where precipitation will drastically decrease. In this study| the variation of gas exchange and production of fresh biomass in a lettuce cultivar| grown under different water availability regimes| was evaluated. Additionally| the concentration of total soluble sugar and water use efficiency (WUE) as mechanisms related to water shortage responses were also evaluated. Overall| individuals with the lowest water availability (50%) showed lower gas exchange and fresh biomass values than their conspecifics grown in optimal irrigated conditions. On the other hand| those individuals with moderate water shortage showed the highest concentration of total soluble sugars and WUE. Our results suggested that cultures exposed to extensive or intense drought events| could be negatively affected in both physiological performance and productivity. Nevertheless| slight decreases in water availability can enable lettuce plants to exhibit a high WUE| maintaining high levels of physiological performance and productivity. 12659,2011,2,4,Effect of weather conditions on photosynthetic and flavonoid pigment contents in leaves of grapevine cultivars during growing season,The ecophysiological response of vine varieties under global warming-induced climate conditions was assessed by using leaf photosynthetic and flavonoid pigment contents as indicators of photosynthesis and plant resistance to stress conditions. The experiments were conducted on 4 vine varieties| Feteasca alba| Feteasca neagra| Feteasca regala and Cabernet Sauvignon| grown in the vineyard center Iasi| Experimental Farm of University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine| Romania| during 2007 - 2009. Temperature and rainfall were recorded by decade during the period from spring to autumn| and the values of mean temperatures and the sum of monthly rainfall were related to mean multiannual temperatures. The evolution of temperature and rainfall in the growing season of the grapevine showed the occurrence of the global warming phenomenon| represented by the appearance of drought in 2007 and 2009. In 2007| the drought was caused by an excessive overheating during the summer| with an increase of the monthly average temperature with up to +4.6 degrees C and the daily temperature| which frequently exceeded +40 degrees C. In 2009| the drought was caused by a severe deficit of rainfall| which represents only 55.6% of the multi-annual average value. The ecophysiological response of grape vine varieties was estimated by determination of visible and near UV light absorption capacity of leaf acetone extracts (1%). The a 663-664 nm chlorophyll may assess the intensity of photosynthesis in the response centre| while a 431-432 nm and b 453 nm chlorophyll may evaluate the light absorption capacity in the light absorption centre of photosynthetic systems; the flavonoid pigments with near UV absorption (321-322 nm) may evaluate the plant response to different factors of climate stress. The comparative study of leaf pigment contents of vegetative and flower shoots may evaluate the various mechanisms controlling plant growth| fructification and stress resistance. Under overheating conditions of 2007| the French variety Cabernet Sauvignon and the Romanian Feteasca neagra had the highest photosynthetic intensity and capacity of light absorption. Under conditions of severe water shortage of 2009| Cabernet Sauvignon reacted by reducing the photosynthetic intensity and the intensification of light absorption| while the autochthonous varieties showed a more balanced behaviour. The content of flavonoid pigments was highly reduced at all varieties because of the water shortage. The red varieties of Feteasca neagra and Cabernet Sauvignon reacted to severe water shortage by reducing the intensity of photosynthesis| and by increasing the capacity of light absorption in the leaves of the vegetative shoots compared to floriferous ones especially during the ripening period. Water deficit in 2009 reduced flavonoid pigment content in leaves in all studied varieties compared to 2008. 11647,2011,3,4,Effect of Well Orientation (Vertical vs. Horizontal) and Well Length on the Injection of CO(2) in Deep Saline Aquifers,Simulations of CO(2) injection into confined saline aquifers were conducted for both vertical and horizontal injection wells. The metrics used in quantifying the performances of different injection scenarios included changes in pressure near the injection well| mass of CO(2) dissolved into brine (solubility trapping)| and storage efficiency| all evaluated with an assumed injection period of 50 years. Metrics were quantified as functions of well length| well orientation| CO(2) injection rate| and formation anisotropy (ratio of vertical to horizontal conductivity). When equal well lengths are compared| there is not a significant difference between the predicted performances of horizontal and vertical wells. However| the length of a horizontal well may exceed the length of a vertical well because the length of the horizontal well is not constrained to the vertical thickness of the geologic formation. Simulations show that| as the length of the horizontal well is allowed to increase| the geologic formation can receive a significantly higher CO(2) injection rate without exceeding a maximum allowable pressure. This result is observed in both isotropic and anisotropic formations| and suggests that horizontal wells may be advantageous under pressure-limited conditions. However| the use of horizontal wells does not significantly improve the storage efficiency| and under strongly anisotropic conditions| a vertical well provides higher storage efficiency than a horizontal well. We conclude that horizontal wells may be preferable if the goal is to sequester a large amount of CO(2) in a short period of time| but do not offer a significant advantage in terms of long-term capacity of a potential repository. 12135,2011,3,3,Effects and fate of biochar from rice residues in rice-based systems,Although crop residues constitute an enormous resource| actual residue management practices in rice-based systems have various negative side effects and contribute to global warming. The concept of a combined bioenergy/biochar system could tackle these problems in a new way. Rice residues would be used for energy production| thereby reducing field burning and the use of fossil fuels| and the biochar by-product could help to improve soils| avoid methane emissions| and sequester carbon in soils. To examine some of these promises| we conducted field experiments from 2005 to 2008 in three different rice production systems. Objectives were to study the effect of biochar from rice husks on soil characteristics| assess the stability of carbonized rice residues in these different systems| and evaluate the agronomic effect of biochar applications. The results showed that application of untreated and carbonized rice husks (RH and CRH) increased total organic carbon| total soil N. the C/N ratio| and available P and K. Not significant or small effects were observed for soil reaction| exchangeable Ca| Mg| Na| and the CEC. On a fertile soil| the high C/N ratio of CRH seemed to have limited N availability| thereby slightly reducing grain yields in the first three seasons after application. On a poor soil| where the crop also suffered from water stress| soil chemical and physical improvements increased yields by 16-35%. Together with a parallel study including methane and CO(2) emission measurements at one site| the results strongly suggest that CRH is very stable in various rice soils and systems| possibly for thousands of years. However| the study also showed that CRH was very mobile in some soils. Especially in poor sandy soil| about half of the applied carbon seemed to have moved below 0.30 m in the soil profile within 4 years after application. We concluded that biochar from rice residues can be beneficial in rice-based systems but that actual effects on soil fertility| grain yield| and soil organic carbon will depend on site-specific conditions. Long-term studies on biochar in field trials seem essential to better understand biochar effects and to investigate its behavior in soils. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12707,2011,2,4,Effects of a snowstorm event on the interactions between plants and hummingbirds: fast recovery of spatio-temporal patterns,The global climatic change could cause| in some places| appearance of meteorological phenomena considered rare. If we understand the effect of these phenomena on birds we can understand how birds respond to weather changes We report here the effect of a severe snowfall on hummingbird activity| flower abundance and hummingbird-plant interaction in a temperate forest of central Mexico. During our study we registered 1 hummingbird species (Hylocharis leucotis) and 7 plant species (Fuchsia thymifolia| P microphyla Salvia amarissima| S. elegants| Cestrum raseum. Penstemon campanulatus and Lonicera mexicana). Before the sudden climatic phenomena we registered 66 records of hummingbirds| 8 700 flowers| and 6 hummingbird visits to flowers. During the phenomena| there were zero hummingbird records| 160 flowers and zero visits. A month after the event there were 67 hummingbirds records| 1 825 flowers and 13 visits. Hummingbird activity recovered rapidly after the snowstorm| but 6 of 7 plants species lost all their flowers| except for L. mexicana| which received all hummingbird visits a month after the climatic event.
12810,2011,3,3,Effects of biochar addition on N2O and CO2 emissions from two paddy soils,Impacts of biochar addition on nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from paddy soils are not well documented. Here| we have hypothesized that N2O emissions from paddy soils could be depressed by biochar incorporation during the upland crop season without any effect on CO2 emissions. Therefore| we have carried out the 60-day aerobic incubation experiment to investigate the influences of rice husk biochar incorporation (50 tha(-1)) into two typical paddy soils with or without nitrogen (N) fertilizer on N2O and CO2 evolution from soil. Biochar addition significantly decreased N2O emissions during the 60-day period by 73.1% as an average value while the inhibition ranged from 51.4% to 93.5% (P<0.05-0.01) in terms of cumulative emissions. Significant interactions were observed between biochar| N fertilizer| and soil type indicating that the effect of biochar addition on N2O emissions was influenced by soil type. Moreover| biochar addition did not increase CO2 emissions from both paddy soils (P>0.05) in terms of cumulative emissions. Therefore| biochar can be added to paddy fields during the upland crop growing season to mitigate N2O evolution and thus global warming. 12750,2011,3,2,Effects of boreal forest management practices on the climate impact of CO2 emissions from bioenergy,In Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)| carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from biomass combustion are traditionally assumed climate neutral if the bioenergy system is CO2 flux neutral| i.e. the quantity of CO2 released approximately equals the amount of CO2 sequestered in biomass. This convention is a plausible assumption for fast growing biomass species| but is inappropriate for slower growing biomass| like forests. In this case| the climate impact from biomass combustion can be potentially underestimated if CO2 emissions are ignored| or overestimated| if biogenic CO2 is considered equal to anthropogenic CO2. The estimation of the effective climate impact should take into account how the CO2 fluxes are distributed over time: the emission of CO2 from bioenergy approximately occurs at a single point in time| while the absorption by the new trees is spread over several decades. Our research target is to include this dynamic time dimension in unit-based impact analysis| using a boreal forest stand as case study. The boreal forest growth is modelled with an appropriate function| and is investigated under different forestry regimes (affecting the growth rate and the year of harvest). Specific atmospheric decay functions for biomass-derived CO2 are then elaborated for selected combinations of forest management options. The contribution to global warming is finally quantified using the GWP(bio); index as climate metric. Results estimates the effects of these practices on the characterization factor used for the global warming potential of CO2 from bioenergy| and point out the key role played by the selected time horizon. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3479,2011,3,2,Effects of carbon capture on the performance of an advanced coal-based integrated gasification fuel cell system,Integrated gasification fuel cell (IGFC) power plants combining gasification and solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technologies are very promising for highly efficient and environmentally friendly power generation from coal. IGFC plant amenability to carbon capture for sequestration makes the technology more attractive given the increasing concern over global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions. With the support of the US Department of Energy and the National Energy Technology Laboratory| the Advanced Power and Energy Program has conducted a study to identify promising conceptual designs for IGFC plants. The most promising IGFC concept identified so far is a system with catalytic hydro-gasification| a pressurized (operating pressure of 10 bar) SOFC followed by a turbo-expander and a steam cycle. The design requirement for recycling de-carbonized anode exhaust back to the gasifier for hydro-gasification not only produces a synergistic integration of SOFC and gasification subsystems| but also makes carbon separation a natural result. The current analyses of this system show an efficiency of 58.4 per cent (coal higher heating value basis) while capturing 94 per cent of the CO(2). Using this system as a baseline case| this work investigates the sensitivity of IGFC system performance on the extent of carbon capture. It is shown that the proposed IGFC system can achieve ultra-high carbon capture (> 99 per cent) at small system efficiency expense while reducing carbon capture to below 90 per cent actually diminishes the system efficiency because less fuel is converted in the SOFC. 12695,2011,2,4,Effects of climate change and wave direction on longshore sediment transport patterns in Southern California,Changes in deep-water wave climate drive coastal morphologic change according to unique shoaling transformation patterns of waves over local shelf bathymetry. The Southern California Bight has a particularly complex shelf configuration| of tectonic origin| which poses a challenge to predictions of wave driven| morphologic coastal change. Northward shifts in cyclonic activity in the central Pacific Ocean| which may arise due to global climate change| will significantly alter the heights| periods| and directions of waves approaching the California coasts. In this paper| we present the results of a series of numerical experiments that explore the sensitivity of longshore sediment transport patterns to changes in deep water wave direction| for several wave height and period scenarios. We outline a numerical modeling procedure| which links a spectral wave transformation model (SWAN) with a calculation of gradients in potential longshore sediment transport rate (CGEM)| to project magnitudes of potential coastal erosion and accretion| under proscribed deep water wave conditions. The sediment transport model employs two significant assumptions: (1) quantity of sediment movement is calculated for the transport-limited case| as opposed to supply-limited case| and (2) nearshore wave conditions used to evaluate transport are calculated at the 5-meter isobath| as opposed to the wave break point. To illustrate the sensitivity of the sedimentary system to changes in deep-water wave direction| we apply this modeling procedure to two sites that represent two different coastal exposures and bathymetric configurations. The Santa Barbara site| oriented with a roughly west-to-east trending coastline| provides an example where the behavior of the coastal erosional/accretional character is exacerbated by deep-water wave climate intensification. Where sheltered| an increase in wave height enhances accretion| and where exposed| increases in wave height and period enhance erosion. In contrast| all simulations run for the Torrey Pines site| oriented with a north-to-south trending coastline| resulted in erosion| the magnitude of which was strongly influenced by wave height and less so by wave period. At both sites| the absolute value of coastal accretion or erosion strongly increases with a shift from northwesterly to westerly waves. These results provide some examples of the potential outcomes| which may result from increases in cyclonic activity| El Nio frequency| or other changes in ocean storminess that may accompany global climate change. 11909,2011,2,4,Effects of climate change on coastal disasters: new methodologies and recent results,Humanity faces an increasing possibility that unusual and extreme natural disasters will increase| compounded with climate change| including global warming. These compound events are designated as compounded natural hazards in this study. A methodology must be developed for predicting what events and risks will confront future societies| to propose countermeasures and adaptation strategies against these events| and to evaluate the influences of compound disasters on infrastructure which is particularly situated near coasts and rivers. Based on the above-stated background and demands| this study was undertaken with the intention of upgrading the methodology for estimating effects on infrastructure of compound events such as increased typhoon and rainfall severity caused by global warming occurring concurrently with a great earthquake in Japan. Such a methodology is expected to contribute to progress in the fields of natural disaster mitigation and land preservation| particularly benefiting coastal and river areas in Japan. Additionally in this study| risk and economic loss analyses for the possible occurrence of compound disasters for coastal infrastructure and foundations are produced for establishing environmental strategies at the governmental level. The authors further propose adaptation strategies and techniques as countermeasures against these events. 12113,2011,2,3,Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs| and possible implications,Meteorologic-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes' internal heating| cooling| and mixing. Thus| continued global warming and climate change will affect lakes' thermal properties| dynamics| and ecosystem. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (in the states of California and Nevada in the United States) is investigated here| as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within a lake. In the Tahoe basin| air temperature data show upward trends and streamflow trends indicate earlier snowmelt. Precipitation in the basin is shifting from snow to rain| and the frequency of intense rainfall events is increasing. In-lake water temperature records of the past 38 years (1970-2007) show that Lake Tahoe is warming at an average rate of 0.013A degrees C/year. The future trends of weather variables| such as air temperature| precipitation| longwave radiation| downward shortwave radiation| and wind speed are estimated from predictions of three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period 2001-2100. Future trends of weather variables of each GCM are found to be different to those of the other GCMs. A series of simulation years into the future (2000-2040) is established using streamflows and associated loadings| and meteorologic data sets for the period 1994-2004. Future simulation years and trends of weather variables are selected so that: (1) future simulated warming trend would be consistent with the observed warming trend (0.013A degrees C/year); and (2) future mixing pattern frequency would closely match with the historical mixing pattern frequency. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable| and mixing is reduced. Continued warming in the Tahoe has important implications for efforts towards managing biodiversity and maintaining clarity of the lake. 12192,2011,2,4,Effects of climate on diameter growth of co-occurring Fagus sylvatica and Abies alba along an altitudinal gradient,In high-elevation forests| growth is limited by low temperatures| while in Mediterranean climates drought and high temperatures are the main limiting factors. Consequently| the climate-growth relationships on Mont Ventoux| a mountain in the Mediterranean area| are influenced by both factors. Two co-occurring species were studied: silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)| whose geographical distribution depends on their low tolerance to summer drought at low altitude/latitude| and low temperatures (late frost and short length of the growing season) at high altitude/latitude. Firs and beeches distributed along an elevational gradient were investigated using dendroecological methods. Silver fir growth was found to be more sensitive to summer water stress than beech. On the other hand| beech growth was more impacted by extreme events such as the 2003 heat wave| and negatively related to earlier budburst| which suggests a higher sensitivity to late frost. These results are confirmed by the different altitudinal effects observed in both species. Beech growth decreases with altitude whereas an optimum of growth potential was observed at intermediate elevations for silver fir. Recent global warming has caused a significant upward shift of these optima. As found for the period 2000-2006| rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall may restrain growth of silver fir. If these trends continue in the future beech might be favored at low altitudes. The species will have a reduced capacity to migrate to higher altitudes due to its sensitivity to late frosts| although an upward shift of silver fir is likely. 3416,2011,2,4,Effects of decreasing water potential on gross ammonification and nitrification in an acid coniferous forest soil,Changes in the soil water regime| predicted as a consequence of global climate change| might influence the N cycle in temperate forest soils. We investigated the effect of decreasing soil water potentials on gross ammonification and nitrification in different soil horizons of a Norway spruce forest and tested the hypotheses that i) gross rates are more sensitive to desiccation in the Oa and EA horizon as compared to the uppermost Oi/Oe horizon and ii) that gross nitrification is more sensitive than gross ammonification. Soil samples were adjusted by air drying to water potentials from about field capacity to around -1.0 MPa| a range that is often observed under field conditions at our site. Gross rates were measured using the (15)N pool dilution technique. To ensure that the addition of solute label to dry soils and the local rewetting does not affect the results by re-mineralization or preferential consumption of (15)N| we compared different extraction and incubation times. To times ranging from 10 to 300 min and incubation times of 48 h and 72 h did not influence the rates of gross ammonification and nitrification. Even small changes of water potential decreased gross ammonification and nitrification in the 0 horizon. In the EA horizon| gross nitrification was below detection limit and the response of the generally low rates of gross ammonification to decreasing water potentials was minor. In the Oi/Oe horizon gross ammonification and nitrification decreased from 37.5 to 18.3 mg N kg(-1) soil d(-1) and from 15.4 to 5.6 mg N kg(-1) soil d(-1) when the water potential decreased from field capacity to -0.8 MPa. In the Oa horizon gross ammonification decreased from 7.4 to 4.0 mg N kg(-1) soil d(-1) when the water potential reached -0.6 MPa. At such water potential nitrification almost ceased| while in the Oi/Oe horizon nitrification continued at a rather high level. Hence| only in the Oa horizon nitrification was more sensitive to desiccation than ammonification. Extended drought periods that might result from climate change will cause a reduction in gross N turnover rates in forest soils even at moderate levels of soil desiccation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3391,2011,2,4,Effects of elevated CO(2) on plant growth and nutrient partitioning of rice (Oryza sativa L.) at rapid tillering and physiological maturity,This work investigates the relationship between plant growth| grain yield| nutrient acquisition and partitioning in rice (Oryza saliva L.) under elevated CO(2). Plants were grown hydroponically in growth chambers with a 12-h photoperiod at either 370 or 700 mu mol CO(2) mol(-1) concentration. Plant dry mass (DM)| grain yield and macro- and micronutrient concentrations of vegetative organs and grains were determined. Elevated CO(2) increased biomass at tillering| and this was largely due to an increase in root mass by 160%. Elevated CO(2) had no effect on total nutrient uptake (N| P| K. Mg and Ca). However| nutrient partitioning among organs was significantly altered. N partitioning to leaf blades was significantly decreased| whereas the N partitioning into the leaf sheaths and roots was increased. Nutrient use efficiency of N| P| K| and Mg in all organs was significantly increased at elevated CO(2). At harvest maturity| grain yield was increased by 27% at elevated CO(2) while grain (protein) concentration was decreased by a similar magnitude (28%)| suggesting that critical nutrient requirements for rice might need to be reassessed with global climate change. 3257,2011,2,4,Effects of elevated CO(2) on the interspecific competition between two sympatric species of Aphis gossypii and Bemisia tabaci fed on transgenic Bt cotton,Effects of elevated CO(2) (twice ambient vs. ambient) and Bt Cry1Ac transgene (Bt cotton cv. 33(B) vs. its nontransgenic parental line cv. DP5415) on the interspecific competition between two ecologically similar species of cotton aphid Aphis gossypii and whitefly biotype-Q Bemisia tabaci were studied in open-top chambers. The results indicated that elevated CO(2) and Bt cotton both affected the population abundances of A. gossypii and biotype-Q B. tabaci when introduced solely (i.e.| without interspecific competition) or two species coexisted (i.e.| with interspecific competition). Compared with ambient CO(2)| elevated CO(2) increased the population abundances of A. gossypii and biotype-Q B. tabaci as fed on Bt and nontransgenic cotton on 45 (i.e.| seedling stage) and 60 (i.e.| flowering stage) days after planting (DAP)| but only significantly enhanced aphid abundance without interspecific competition on the 45-DAP nontransgenic cotton and 60-DAP Bt cotton| and significantly increased whitefly abundance with interspecific competition on the 45-DAP Bt cotton and 60-DAP nontransgenic cotton. In addition| compared with nontransgenic cotton at elevated CO(2)| Bt cotton significantly reduced biotype-Q B. tabaci abundances without and with interspecific competition during seedling and flowering stage| while only significantly decreasing A. gossypii abundances without interspecific competition during the seedling stage. When the two insect species coexisted| the proportions of biotype-Q B. tabaci were significantly higher than those of A. gossypii on Bt and nontransgenic cotton at the same CO(2) levels| and elevated CO(2) only significantly increased the percentages of biotype-Q B. tabaci and significantly reduced the proportions of A. gossypii on seedling and flowering nontransgenic cotton. Therefore| the effects of elevated CO(2) were favorable for biotype-Q B. tabaci to out-compete A. gossypii under the predicted global climate change. 12402,2011,2,4,Effects of elevated CO(2) partial pressure and temperature on the coccolithophore Syracosphaera pulchra,The effects of elevated partial pressure of CO(2) (pCO(2)) and temperature on the coccolithophore Syracosphaera pulchra were investigated in isolation and in combination. Both the diploid and the haploid life stages were studied. Batch cultures were grown under 4 conditions: 400 mu atm and 19 degrees C; 400 mu atm and 22 degrees C; 740 mu atm and 19 degrees C; and 740 mu atm and 22 degrees C. The growth rate (mu) significantly increased under elevated pCO(2) only in the haploid stage and showed a different pattern with respect to temperature: it was higher at an elevated temperature in the haploid stage at 400 mu atm whereas it decreased in the diploid stage at 740 mu atm. Increasing both parameters together increased the growth rate by 11 % in the haploid stage only. Elevated pCO(2) had a negative impact on the content of particulate organic carbon (POC)| production and cell size in both life stages at 19 degrees C| while no significant effect was observed at 22 degrees C. Increasing temperature significantly increased the content of POC and production in the diploid stage at 740 mu atm| while at 400 mu atm it significantly decreased both the content of POC and production in the haploid stage. A simultaneous increase in pCO(2) and temperature had a negative effect on the content of POC and production in the haploid stage only. Neither the rate of calcification (production of particulate inorganic carbon| PIC) nor the PIC:POC ratio were significantly affected by elevated pCO(2)| temperature or their interaction. These results showed a strong interactive effect between pCO(2) and temperature in affecting the physiology of S. pulchra| an effect that was often more pronounced in the haploid life stage. Elevated pCO(2) had a stronger effect than temperature. 3289,2011,2,4,Effects of elevated CO(2)| warming and drought episodes on plant carbon uptake in a temperate heath ecosystem are controlled by soil water status,The impact of elevated CO(2)| periodic drought and warming on photosynthesis and leaf characteristics of the evergreen dwarf shrub Calluna vulgaris in a temperate heath ecosystem was investigated. Photosynthesis was reduced by drought in midsummer and increased by elevated CO(2) throughout the growing season| whereas warming only stimulated photosynthesis early in the year. At the beginning and end of the growing season| a T x CO(2) interaction synergistically stimulated plant carbon uptake in the combination of warming and elevated CO(2). At peak drought| the D x CO(2) interaction antagonistically down-regulated photosynthesis| suggesting a limited ability of elevated CO(2) to counteract the negative effect of drought. The response of photosynthesis in the full factorial combination (TDCO(2)) could be explained by the main effect of experimental treatments (T| D| CO(2)) and the two-factor interactions (D x CO(2)| T x CO(2)). The interactive responses in the experimental treatments including elevated CO(2) seemed to be linked to the realized range of treatment variability| for example with negative effects following experimental drought or positive effects following the relatively higher impact of night-time warming during cold periods early and late in the year. Longer-term experiments are needed to evaluate whether photosynthetic down-regulation will dampen the stimulation of photosynthesis under prolonged exposure to elevated CO(2). 12357,2011,2,4,Effects of elevated ozone concentration on methane emission from a rice paddy in Yangtze River Delta| China,Few investigations have been made on the impact of elevated ozone (O(3)) concentration on methane (CH(4)) emission from rice paddies. Using open-top chambers in situ with different O(3) treatments| CH(4) emissions were measured in a rice paddy in Yangtze River Delta| China in 2007 and 2008. There were four treatments applied: charcoal-filtered air (CF)| nonfiltered air (NF)| and charcoal-filtered air with different O(3) additions (O(3)-1 and O(3)-2). The mean O(3) concentrations during the O(3) fumigation were 19.7| 22.6| 69.6 and 118.6 ppb in 2007 and 7.0| 17.4| 82.2 and 138.3 ppb in 2008 for treatments CF| NF| O(3)-1 and O(3)-2| respectively. The rice yields| as compared with CF| were reduced by 32.8% and 37.1%| 58.3% and 52.1% in treatments O(3)-1 and O(3)-2 in 2007 and 2008| respectively. The diurnal patterns of CH(4) emission varied temporally with treatments and there was inconsistence in diurnal variations in CH(4) emissions from the paddy field. The daily mean CH(4) emissions were significantly lower in treatments O(3)-1 and O(3)-2 than those in treatments CF and NF. Compared with CF treatment| CH(4) emissions from the paddy field were decreased to 46.5% and 38.3%| 50.6% and 46.8% under treatments O(3)-1 and O(3)-2 in the whole growing seasons of 2007 and 2008| respectively. The seasonal mean CH(4) emissions were negatively related with AOT40 (accumulative O(3) concentration above 40 ppb; P < 0.01 in both years)| but positively related to the relative rice yield (reference to CF; P < 0.01 in 2007 and P < 0.001 in 2008)| aboveground biomass (P < 0.01 in both years) and underground biomass (P < 0.01 in 2007 and P < 0.05 in 2008). The decreased CH(4) emission from the rice paddy due to an increased O(3) exposure might partially mitigate the global warming potential induced by soil carbon loss under elevated O(3) concentrations. 12729,2011,2,4,Effects of experimental seawater acidification on an estuarine plankton community,The atmospheric CO2 concentration is rising| and models predict that by the end of the century it will have increased to twice the amount seen at any given time during the last 15 million yr. This will cause a decrease in average surface water pH of 0.4| and planktonic protists will be among the organisms to be affected first by this change. We tested whether reduced pH (and increased free CO2) would affect plankton communities over an incubation period of 14 d. In a laboratory microcosm setup using a natural plankton community from the Derwent River estuary| Australia| 2 treatments with reduced pH (8.0 and 7.7) were compared to an unaltered control of pH 8.3. An extreme pH 6.3 was included for comparison. Measured parameters included community photosynthesis| nutrient uptake and biomass build-up as well as enumeration of 25 protist taxa and quantitative HPLC of phytoplankton pigments. A major succession was seen during the 14 d| but no effects at all were found in pH treatments 8.0 and 7.7| whereas the extreme pH 6.3 clearly affected the community for all measured parameters. Thus| it is unlikely that the investigated plankton community would be significantly affected by a pH and CO2 change as predicted for the 21st century. This has previously been found for other coastal plankton assemblages as well| and we suggest that high pH resilience is a necessity for protist species living in coastal waters with relatively large pH fluctuations. 3406,2011,2,4,Effects of experimental warming of air| soil and permafrost on carbon balance in Alaskan tundra,The carbon (C) storage capacity of northern latitude ecosystems may diminish as warming air temperatures increase permafrost thaw and stimulate decomposition of previously frozen soil organic C. However| warming may also enhance plant growth so that photosynthetic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) uptake may| in part| offset respiratory losses. To determine the effects of air and soil warming on CO(2) exchange in tundra| we established an ecosystem warming experiment - the Carbon in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research (CiPEHR) project - in the northern foothills of the Alaska Range in Interior Alaska. We used snow fences coupled with spring snow removal to increase deep soil temperatures and thaw depth (winter warming) and open-top chambers to increase growing season air temperatures (summer warming). Winter warming increased soil temperature (integrated 5-40 cm depth) by 1.5 degrees C| which resulted in a 10% increase in growing season thaw depth. Surprisingly| the additional 2 kg of thawed soil C m-2 in the winter warming plots did not result in significant changes in cumulative growing season respiration| which may have been inhibited by soil saturation at the base of the active layer. In contrast to the limited effects on growing-season C dynamics| winter warming caused drastic changes in winter respiration and altered the annual C balance of this ecosystem by doubling the net loss of CO(2) to the atmosphere. While most changes to the abiotic environment at CiPEHR were driven by winter warming| summer warming effects on plant and soil processes resulted in 20% increases in both gross primary productivity and growing season ecosystem respiration and significantly altered the age and sources of CO(2) respired from this ecosystem. These results demonstrate the vulnerability of organic C stored in near surface permafrost to increasing temperatures and the strong potential for warming tundra to serve as a positive feedback to global climate change. 12529,2011,3,3,Effects of land use type and incubation temperature on greenhouse gas emissions from Chinese and Canadian soils,Purpose Land use type is an important factor influencing greenhouse gas emissions from soils| but the mechanisms involved in affecting potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in different land use systems are poorly understood. Since the northern regions of Canada and China are characterized by cool growing seasons| GHG emissions under low temperatures are important for our understanding of how soil temperature affects soil C and N turnover processes and associated greenhouse gas emissions in cool temperate regions. Therefore| we investigated the effects of temperature on the emission of N(2)O| CO(2)| and CH(4) from typical forest and grassland soils from China and Canada. Materials and methods The soils were incubated in the laboratory at 10 degrees C and 15 degrees C under aerobic conditions for 15 days. Results and discussion The results showed that land use type had a large impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The N(2)O emissions were significantly higher in grassland than in forest soils| while CO(2) emissions were higher in forest than in grassland soils. Grassland soils were weak sources of CH(4) emission| while forest soils were weak sinks of atmospheric CH(4). The global warming potential of forest soils was significantly greater than that of grassland soils. Soil pH| C/N ratio| and soluble organic carbon concentrations and clay content were dominant factors influencing the emissions of N(2)O and CO(2)| respectively. Increasing temperature from 10 degrees C to 15 degrees C had no effects on CH(4) flux| but significantly increased N(2)O emissions for all studied soils. The same pronounced effect was also found for CO(2) emission from forest soils. Conclusions Indications from this study are that the effects of land use type on the source-sink relationship and rates of GHG emissions should be taken into consideration when planning management strategies for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in the studied region| and temperature changes must be taken into account when scaling up point-or plot-based N(2)O and CO(2) flux data to the landscape level due to large spatial and temporal variations of temperature that exist in the field. The reader is cautioned about the limitation with incubation studies on a limited number of samples/locations| and care need to be exercised to extrapolate the result to field conditions. 12172,2011,2,3,Effects of nitrate contamination and seasonal variation on the denitrification and greenhouse gas production in La Rocina Stream (Donana National Park| SW Spain),Climatic influence (global warming and decreased rainfall) could lead to an increase in the ecological and toxicological effects of the pollution in aquatic ecosystems| especially contamination from agricultural nitrate (NO(3)(-)) fertilizers. Physicochemical properties of the surface waters and sediments of four selected sites varying in NO(3)(-) concentration along La Rocina Stream| which feeds Marisma del Rocio in Donana National Park (South West| Spain)| were studied. Electrical conductivity| pH| content in macro and microelements| total organic carbon and nitrogen| and dissolved carbon and nitrogen were affected by each sampling site and sampling time. Contaminant NO(3)(-) in surface water at the site with the highest NO(3)(-) concentration (ranged in 61.6-106.6 mg L(-1)) was of inorganic origin| most probably from chemical fertilizers| as determined chemically (90% of the total dissolved nitrogen from NO(3)(-)) and by isotopic analysis of delta(15)N-NO(3)(-). Changes in seasonal weather conditions and hydrological effects at the sampling sites were also responsible for variations in some biological activities (dehydrogenase| beta-glucosidase| arylsulphatase| acid phosphatase and urease) in sediments| as well as in the production of the greenhouse gases CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O. Both organic matter and NO(3)(-) contents influenced rates of gas production. Increased NO(3)(-) concentration also resulted in enhanced levels of potential denitrification measured as N(2)O production. The denitrification process was affected by NO(3)(-) contamination and the rainfall regimen| increasing the greenhouse gases emissions (CO(2)| CH(4) and especially N(2)O) during the driest season in all sampling sites studied. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11948,2011,3,3,Effects of oral nitroethane administration on enteric methane emissions and ruminal fermentation in cattle,Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and its release to the atmosphere is widely believed to contribute to global warming. Ruminal enteric CH(4) production represents a loss of 2-15% of the animal's gross energy (GE) intake and contributes nearly 20% of US CH(4) emissions. Studies have evaluated the CH(4) inhibiting potential of select short chain nitrocompounds| such as nitroethane| but results demonstrating their effects on ruminant exhaled CH(4) emissions are lacking. Our study determined effects of oral nitroethane administration on CH(4) emissions| accumulations of volatile fatty acids (VFA) and on ruminal CH(4) producing activity in steers fed a forage based diet containing 8.8 MJ/kg of metabolizable energy on a dry matter (DM) basis. Effects of nitroethane administration on ruminal nitroethane reducing activity were also determined. Holstein steers (n = 24) of 317 +/- 6.5 kg body weight (BW) were assigned to 4 treatments that included: 0| 30| 60 and 120 mg nitroethane/kg BW/d. Treatments were administered via oral gavage twice daily at 08:00 and 16:00 h for 8 d. DM intake decreased quadratically as level of nitroethane increased with steers administered 60 and 120 mg nitroethane/kg BW consuming 14 and 7% lower DM| respectively| than steers administered 0 or 30 mg nitroethane/kg BW. Methane emissions as a proportion of GE intake and ruminal CH(4) producing activity both decreased linearly (P<0.001) as level of nitroethane increased. Compared to control steers| daily administration of nitroethane at 60 and 120 mg/kg BW reduced CH(4) emissions as a proportion of GE intake 9-22% and ruminal CH(4) producing activity 24-26%. Ruminal VFA accumulations were unaffected by nitroethane treatment. Results demonstrate that short term oral administration of nitroethane may be an effective anti-methanogenic compound in steers fed high forage diets. Further research is warranted to determine if strategies using nitroethane lower enteric CH(4) emissions in ruminants long term. Ultimately| nitrocompounds which can be reduced by rumen microbes to yield compounds with nutritional value for the host| such as amino acids| would be preferred. This paper is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture - Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions| Guest Edited by T.A. McAllister| Section Guest Editors: K.A. Beauchemin| X. Hao| S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology| P.H. Robinson. Published by Elsevier B.V. 12018,2011,3,3,Effects of organic and mineral fertilizer nitrogen on greenhouse gas emissions and plant-captured carbon under maize cropping in Zimbabwe,Optimizing a three-way pact comprising crop yields| fertility inputs and greenhouse gases may minimize the contribution of croplands to global warming. Fluxes of N(2)O| CO(2) and CH(4) from soil were measured under maize (Zea mays L.) grown using 0| 60 and 120 kg N hm(-2) as NH(4)NO(3)-N and composted manure-N in three seasons on clay (Chromic luvisol) and sandy loam (Haplic lixisol) soils in Zimbabwe. The fluxes were measured using the static chamber methodology involving gas chromatography for ample air analysis. Over an average of 122 days we estimated emissions of 0.1 to 0.5 kg N(2)O-N hm(-2)| 711 to 1574 kg CO(2)-C hm(-2) and-2.6 to 5.8 kg CH(4)-C hm(-2) from six treatments during season II with the highest fluxes. The posed hypothesis that composted manure-N may be better placed as a mitigation option against soil emissions of GHG than mineral fertilizer-N was largely supported by N(2)O fluxes during the wet period of the year| but with high level of uncertainty. Nitrogen addition might have stimulated both emissions and consumption of CH(4) but the sink or source strength depended highly on soil water content. We concluded that the application of mineral-N and manure input may play an important role with reference to global warming provided the season can support substantial crop productivity that may reduce the amount of N(2)O loss per unit yield. Confidence in fluxes response to agricultural management is still low due to sporadic measurements and limited observations from the southern African region. 3456,2011,2,4,Effects of precipitation on soil acid phosphatase activity in three successional forests in southern China,Phosphorus (P) is often a limiting nutrient for plant growth in tropical and subtropical forests. Global climate change has led to alterations in precipitation in the recent years| which inevitably influences P cycling. Soil acid phosphatase plays a vital role in controlling P mineralization| and its activity reflects the capacity of organic P mineralization potential in soils. In order to study the effects of precipitation on soil acid phosphatase activity| an experiment with precipitation treatments (no precipitation| natural precipitation and doubled precipitation) in three successional forests in southern China was carried out. The three forests include Masson pine forest (MPF)| coniferous and broadleaved mixed forest (MF) and monsoon evergreen broadleaved forest (MEBF). Results showed that driven by seasonality of precipitation| changes in soil acid phosphatase activities coincided with the seasonal climate pattern| with significantly higher values in the wet season than in the dry season. Soil acid phosphatase activities were closely linked to forest successional stages| with enhanced values in the later stages of forest succession. In the dry season| soil acid phosphatase activities in the three forests showed a rising trend with increasing precipitation treatments. In the wet season| soil acid phosphatase activity was depressed by no precipitation treatment in the three forests. However| doubled precipitation treatment exerted a significantly negative effect on it only in MEBF. These results indicate that the potential transformation rate of organic P might be more dependent on water in the dry season than in the wet season. A decrease in organic P turnover would occur in the three forests if there was a drought in a whole year in the future. More rainfall in the wet season would also be adverse to organic P turnover in MEBF due to its high soil moisture. 12035,2011,2,4,Effects of river ice on riparian vegetation,P>1. Many rivers and streams experience pronounced ice dynamics caused by the formation of anchor and frazil ice| leading to flooding and disturbance of riparian and aquatic communities. However| the effects of dynamic ice conditions on riverine biota are little known. 2. We studied the formation of anchor ice in natural streams over 2 years and assessed the effects of anchor ice on riparian vegetation by comparing sites with frequent or abundant and little or no anchor ice formation. We also studied the direct impact of ice on riparian plants by experimentally creating ice in the riparian zone over three winters and by exposing plants of different life forms to -18 degrees C cold ice in the laboratory. 3. Riparian species richness per 1-m2 plot was higher at sites affected by anchor ice than at sites where anchor ice was absent or rare| whereas dominance was lower| suggesting that disturbance by ice enhances species richness. Species composition was more homogenous among plots at anchor ice sites. By experimentally creating riparian ice| we corroborated the comparative results| with species richness increasing in ice-treated plots compared to controls| irrespective of whether the sites showed natural anchor ice. 4. Because of human alterations of running waters| the natural effects of river ice on stream hydrology| geomorphology and ecology are little known. Global warming in northern streams is expected to lead to more dynamic ice conditions| offering new challenges for aquatic organisms and river management. Our results should stimulate new research| contributing to a better understanding of ecosystem function during winter. 3181,2011,2,4,Effects of salinity on photosynthesis and respiration of the seagrass Zostera japonica: A comparison of two established populations in North America,Photosynthetic responses were quantified for two Zostera japonica Aschers. and Graebn. populations from the northern and southern limits of distribution exposed to a range of salinities along the Pacific Coast of North America. Plants were collected from Padilla Bay| Washington (northern) and Coos Bay| Oregon| USA (southern) and cultured together in experimental tanks at 3 salinities (5| 20 and 35) under saturating irradiance for 3 weeks. Subsequently| photosynthesis-irradiance (P vs. E curves) relationships for leaf segments from the two populations were assessed using an oxygen electrode system. We found no evidence for diet rhythms in either light saturated photosynthesis (Pm) or dark respiration (R(d)). For the Padilla Bay population| P(max) ranged from 192 to 390 mu mol O(2) g DW(-1) h(-1); for the Coos Bay population P(max) ranged from 226 to 774 mu mol O(2) g DW(-1) h(-1). Photosynthetic maxima of the Coos Bay plants occurred at a salinity of 20| whereas salinity had no effect on the photosynthetic maxima of the Padilla Bay plants. There were significant differences in leaf tissue R(d) among salinity treatments but the two populations responded similarly to salinity. North American populations of Z.japonica are best adapted to intermediate salinities| displaying minimum R(d) rates| lower compensation irradiance| higher saturation irradiance| and greater Pmax rates at a salinity of 20. Additionally| the southern population may be better adapted to southward expansion along the Pacific Coast and changes associated with global climate change. Published by Elsevier B.V. 11649,2011,2,4,Effects of short-term ecosystem experimental warming on water-extractable organic matter in an ombrotrophic Sphagnum peatland (Le Forbonnet| France),In a future warmer world| peatlands may change from a carbon sink function to a carbon source function. This study tracks changes in water-extractable organic matter (WEOM) after 1 year of in situ experimental warming using open top chambers (OTCs). WEOM was studied in the upper peat layers (0-10 cm) through analysis of water-extractable organic carbon (WEOC)| stable C isotopic composition (delta(13)C)| specific UV absorbance at 280 nm and sugar composition of cores taken from an open bog (DRY sites) and a transitional poor fen (WET sites). At the DRY sites| the impact of OTCs was weak with respect to WEOM parameters| whereas at the WET sites| the air warming treatment led to a decrease in peat water content| suggesting that the supply of heat by OTCs was used mainly for evapotranspiration. OTCs at the WET sites also induced a relative enrichment at the surface (0-5 cm depth) of aliphatic and/or aromatic compounds with concomitant decrease in WEOC| as a result of decomposition. On the contrary| WEOC and sugar content increased in the deeper peat layer (7.5-10 cm depth) probably as a result of increased leaching of phenolic compounds by roots| which then inhibits microbial activity. The different response to experimental warming at DRY and WET sites suggests that the spatial variability of moisture is critical for understanding of the impact of global warming on the fate of OM and the carbon cycle in peatlands. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11672,2011,2,4,Effects of Short-Term High Temperature on Photosynthesis and Photosystem II Performance in Sorghum,Gas exchange and chlorophyll a fluorescence transient were examined in leaves of sorghum at high temperatures. No changes were found in photosynthetic rate (Pn) and photosystem II (PS II) performance index on absorption base (PI(abs)) at 40 degrees C for 1 h. But transpiration rate was enhanced significantly| which served as a self-protection response for dissipating heat. The Pn decreased significantly at 40 degrees C for 3 h| and the decrease became greater at 45 degrees C. Decrease in Pn mainly resulted from stomatal limitation at 40 degrees C for 3 h| whereas it was due to non-stomatal limitation at 45 degrees C. Decline in PS II function indicated by the significant decrease in PI(abs)| trapped energy flux and electron transport flux were responsible for the decrease in Pn at 45 degrees C. PS II reaction centre and oxygen-evolving complex in the donor side were not affected at high temperatures| but electron transport in the acceptor side was sensitive to high temperature. The PS II function recovered completely 1 day after high temperature stress even as high as 45 degrees C| which is favourable for sorghum to meet the challenge of global warming. However| Pn did not completely recover possibly due to heat-induced irreversible damage to CO(2) fixation process. 3239,2011,2,4,Effects of simulated storm sizes and nitrogen on three Chihuahuan Desert perennial herbs and a grass,Establishment and growth of three perennial herbs and a small tussock grass were studied in an experiment that provided simulated rainfall of 6 mm week(-1) or 25 mm once per month and nitrogen fertilization in combination with the different simulated rainfall regimes. Wild onion| Allium macropetalum| failed to establish in plots receiving 25 mm month(-1) simulated rainfall. The perennial composite| Bahia absinthifolia| occurred at higher densities in plots that were not irrigated but there were no differences in biomass in any of the irrigation or fertilization treatments. Desert holly| Perezia nana| failed to establish in nitrogen fertilized plots and developed higher abundance and biomass in plots receiving 25 mm month(-1). Nitrogen fertilization had either no effect or an adverse effect on the perennial herbs. The tussock grass. Dasychloa pulchella exhibited highest abundance and biomass with 6 mm week(-1) added water plus nitrogen. Since global climate change will affect both rain storm frequency and size and atmospheric nitrogen deposition| the results of this study are applicable to understanding vegetation responses climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3157,2011,2,4,Effects of Single and Multifactor Treatments with Elevated Temperature| CO(2) and Ozone on Oilseed Rape and Barley,We investigated the effect of elevated [CO(2)]| [O(3)] and temperature on plant productivity and if these climate factors interacted with each other in multifactor treatments. The climate effects were studied in 14 different cultivars/lines of European spring oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) and spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.). Seven genotypes of each species were cultivated in six single-and multifactor treatments with ambient or elevated CO(2) (385 ppm and 700 ppm)| O(3) (20 ppb and 60 ppb) and temperature (12/19 degrees C and 17/24 degrees C). Growth and production parameters were measured. Elevated CO(2) increased yield and biomass. Seed number increased by about 47 % in barley and by 26 % in oilseed rape| but in oilseed rape| the TSW was significantly decreased| possibly because of shortening of the seed filling period. Higher temperatures decreased yield and biomass significantly in both species. A significantly decreased yield and thousand grain weight was also seen in barley due to elevated O(3). The multifactor combination of elevated CO(2)| O(3) and temperature showed a decrease in growth and production in the two species| though not statistically significant for all parameters. This trend suggests that the expected increase in the plant production in northern Europe| indicated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a consequence of increased [CO(2)] and temperature| may not hold| due to interactions between these abiotic factors. 3230,2011,2,4,Effects of soil flooding and changes in light intensity on photosynthesis of Eugenia uniflora L. seedlings,The increased frequency of heavy rains as a result of global climate change can lead to flooding and changes in light availability caused by the presence of thick clouds. To test the hypothesis that reduction in light availability can alleviate the harmful effects of soil flooding on photosynthesis| the authors studied the effects of soil flooding and acclimation from high to low light on the photosynthetic performance of Eugenia uniflora. Seedlings acclimated to full sunlight (about 35 mol m(-2) d(-1)) for 5 months were transferred to partial sunlight (about 10 mol m(-2) d(-1)) and were either subjected to soil flooding or not flooded. Chlorophyll fluorescence was measured throughout the flooding period and leaf gas exchange was measured 16 days after flooding was initiated. Minimal fluorescence yield (Fo) was significantly higher and the quantum efficiency of open PSII centres (Fv/Fm) was significantly lower in flooded than in non-flooded plants in full sunlight. Sixteen days after flooding was initiated| stomatal conductance (gs(sat)) and net photosyntheses expressed on a leaf area (A(sat-area))| weight (A(sat-wt)) and chlorophyll (A(sat-Chl)) basis decreased in response to soil flooding. Flooding decreased stomatal conductance by similar amounts in full and partial sunlight| but A(sat-area) in partial and full sunlight was 3.4 and 16.8 times lower| respectively| in flooded than in non-flooded plants. These results indicate that changes from full to partial sunlight during soil flooding can alleviate the effects of flooding stress on photosynthesis in E. uniflora seedlings acclimated to full sunlight. The responses of photosynthesis in trees to flooding stress may be dependent on changes in light environment during heavy rains. 11665,2011,2,4,Effects of soil frost on growth| composition and respiration of the soil microbial decomposer community,Most climate change scenarios predict that the variability of weather conditions will increase in coming decades. Hence| the frequency and intensity of freeze-thaw cycles in high-latitude regions are likely to increase| with concomitant effect on soil carbon biogeochemistry and associated microbial processes. To address this issue we sampled riparian soil from a Swedish boreal forest and applied treatments with variations in four factors related to soil freezing (temperature| treatment duration| soil water content and frequency of freeze-thaw cycles)| at three levels in a laboratory experiment| using a Central Composite Face-centred (CCF) experimental design. We then measured bacterial (leucine incorporation) and fungal (acetate in ergosterol incorporation) growth| basal respiration| soil microbial phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) composition| and concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Fungal growth was higher in soil exposed to freeze-thawing perturbations and freezing temperatures of -6 degrees C and -12 degrees C| than under more constant conditions (steady 0 degrees C). The opposite pattern was found for bacteria| resulting in an increasing fungal-to-bacterial growth ratio following more intensive winter conditions. Soil respiration increased with water content| decreased with treatment duration and appeared to mainly be driven by treatment-induced changes in the DOC concentration. There was a clear shift in the PLFA composition at 0 degrees C| compared with the two lower temperatures| with PLFA markers associated with fungi as well as a number of unsaturated PLFAs being relatively more common at 0 degrees C. Shifts in the PLFA pattern were consistent with those expected for phenotypic plasticity of the cell membrane to low temperatures. There were small declines in PLFA concentrations after freeze-thawing and with longer durations. However| the number of freeze-thaw events had no effect on the microbiological variables. The findings suggest that the higher frequency of freeze-thaw events predicted to follow the global warming will likely have a limited impact on soil microorganisms. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3389,2011,2,4,Effects of Spring Drought on Carbon Sequestration| Evapotranspiration and Water Use Efficiency in the Songnen Meadow Steppe in Northeast China,Global climate change projections suggest an increasing frequency of droughts and extreme rain events in the steppes of the Eurasian region. Using the eddy covariance method| we measured carbon and water balances of a meadow steppe ecosystem in Northeast China during 2 years which had contrasting precipitation patterns in spring seasons in 2007 and 2008. The meadow steppe sequestrated only 64.2 gC m(-2) year(-1) in 2007 compared to 160.5 gC m(-2) year(-1) in 2008| due to a severe spring drought in 2007. The 2007 spring drought resulted in a dramatic reduction of leaf area index (LAI) and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP). However| the meadow steppe still acted as a carbon sink in 2007. The strength of the sink was much greater than that in the typical steppes in Central Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. Spring drought also caused a reduction of plant transpiration (Tr) and total ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET). However| the suppression of ET in 2007 was relatively small in comparison to gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) reduction. Thus| ecosystem water use efficiency (WEU) (GEP/ET) in 2007 was reduced to 5.0 gCO(2) kg(-1) H(2)O or 75% of that of 2008. We concluded that spring drought detrimentally impacted meadow steppe ecosystem by reducing leaf areas| biomass| GEP| WUE and associated increases in soil evaporation (Es) that might aggravate soil salinization of the Songnen Plain. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 12400,2011,2,4,Effects of temperature and CO(2) on phytoplasma multiplication pattern in vector and plant,Multiplication patterns of two phytoplasmas| chrysanthemum yellows and 'flavescence doree' were characterized over time in insect vectors and plant hosts under different climatic (temperature| T| and CO(2)) conditions. Acquisition and transmission experiments were run in parallel in two phytotrons (P1 and P2). Euscelidius variegatus and daisy were used as chrysanthemum yellows hosts| Scaphoideus titanus and broad bean as 'flavescence doree' hosts. Phytoplasma concentration was measured three times in insects and four in plants| at different days after acquisition and inoculation| respectively. Latent period in the vector was also evaluated for both phytoplasmas under the two conditions. On average| phytoplasma multiplication was faster under cooler conditions in insects (P1| 18-22 degrees C; CO(2) 400 ppm) and under warmer conditions in plants (P2| 22-26 degrees C; CO(2) 800 ppm). An influence of T and CO(2) concentrations was observed for chrysanthemum yellows latency in the vector only. Results suggest that T and CO(2) influence on phytoplasma multiplication is host-dependent. 12481,2011,2,4,Effects of temperature change on water discharge| and sediment and nutrient loading in the lower Pearl River basin based on SWAT modelling,The impact of climate change on hydrological processes and nutrient input is one of the major uncertainties in projecting future global warming. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool ( SWAT) model is applied to simulate the effects of temperature on the hydrology and sediment and nutrient load in the lower Pearl River Basin| South China. Calibration and validation results for SWAT showed that the Yamen estuary is appropriate for simulating the impacts of temperature change on both hydrological processes and nutrient input. The possible temperature change scenarios were set at T-2| T-1.5| T-1| T-0.5| T+0.5| T+1| T+1.5| T+2| T+2.5| T+3 degrees C compared to the current temperature| T degrees C. The results showed that the relative variation of discharge with temperature was slight. The sediment load at T+3 degrees C is increased by 13.58% compared to that at T degrees C. Inorganic N and P inputs to the Yamen estuary showed an increasing trend with the temperature increase from T-2 degrees C to T+3 degrees C. Global warming can reduce the vegetation land cover by slowing plant growth| which will aggravate the water and soil loss. Temperature changes would have an effect on mineralization and nitrification by changing soil temperature and temperatures. The warming is projected to cause an increase of sediment and nutrient load into the estuary and accelerate eutrophication in the coastal area. 12596,2011,2,4,Effects of temperature during soybean seed development on defense-related gene expression and fungal pathogen accumulation,Soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr] plants were exposed to three temperature regimens during seed development to investigate the effect of temperature on the expression of eight defense-related genes and the accumulation of two fungal pathogens in inoculated seeds. In seeds prior to inoculation| either a day/night warm (34/26A degrees C) or a cool temperature (22/18A degrees C) relative to normal (26/22A degrees C) resulted in altered patterns of gene expression including substantially lower expression of PR1| PR3 and PR10. After seed inoculation with Cercospora kikuchii| pathogen accumulation was lowest in seeds produced at 22/18A degrees C in which of all defense genes| MMP2 was uniquely most highly induced. For seeds inoculated with Diaporthe phaseolorum| pathogen accumulation was lowest in seeds produced at 34/26A degrees C in which of all defense genes| PR10 was uniquely most highly induced. Our detached seed assays clearly demonstrated that the temperature regimens we applied during seed development produced significant changes in seed defense-related gene expression both pre- and post inoculation and our findings support the hypothesis that global climate change may alter plant-pathogen interactions and thereby potentially crop productivity. 3432,2011,2,4,Effects of temperature| soil moisture| soil type and their interactions on soil carbon mineralization in Zoig alpine wetland| Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Wetland stores substantial amount of carbon and may contribute greatly to global climate change debate. However| few researches have focused on the effects of global climate change on carbon mineralization in Zoig alpine wetland| Qinghai-Tibet Plateau| which is one of the most important peatlands in China. Through incubation experiment| this paper studied the effects of temperature| soil moisture| soil type (marsh soil and peat soil) and their interactions on CO(2) and CH(4) emission rates in Zoig alpine wetland. Results show that when the temperature rises from 5A degrees C to 35A degrees C| CO(2) emission rates increase by 3.3-3.7 times and 2.4-2.6 times under non-inundation treatment| and by 2.2-2.3 times and 4.1-4.3 times under inundation treatment in marsh soil and peat soil| respectively. Compared with non-inundation treatment| CO(2) emission rates decrease by 6%-44%| 20%-60% in marsh soil and peat soil| respectively| under inundation treatment. CO(2) emission rate is significantly affected by the combined effects of the temperature and soil type (p < 0.001)| and soil moisture and soil type (p < 0.001)| and CH(4) emission rate was significantly affected by the interaction of the temperature and soil moisture (p < 0.001). Q (10) values for CO(2) emission rate are higher at the range of 5A degrees C-25A degrees C than 25A degrees C-35A degrees C| indicating that carbon mineralization is more sensitive at low temperature in Zoig alpine wetland. 12776,2011,2,4,Effects of the 2003 European heatwave on the benthic community of a severe transitional ecosystem (Comacchio Saltworks| Italy),The summer of 2003 was the warmest summer in Europe since the 16th century. Its consequences on the fauna of a transitional ecosystem were studied through biodiversity| functional and ecological indicators| from summer 2002 to winter 2005. The heatwave caused considerable changes in the benthic community structure and relative composition| persisting in 2005. Animal assemblages switched from mollusc- to annelida-dominated. Biodiversity and functional indicators captured changes in community structure and composition| proving to be powerful tools to detect responses related to global warming. Ecological indicators rendered a monotonic response oscillating between bad and poor ecological status across the study period. The resilience of mollusc biocoenosis resulted limited with respect to other taxa| posing concerns about their conservation if| as predicted| the frequency of summers as hot as that of 2003 will progressively increase to become the norm at the end of this century. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11708,2011,2,4,Effects of thinning intensity on radial growth patterns and temperature sensitivity in Pinus canariensis afforestations on Tenerife Island| Spain,Context The suitability of thinning to prevent forest growth decline as a result of global warming has not been tested extensively in Macaronesian Canary pine (Pinus canariensis Sweet ex Spreng.). Aims This study aimed to answer the following questions: (1) are tree growth patterns modified by the aspect and thinning intensity? (2) Is sensitivity to climate modulated by thinning? (3) Do trees of different crown classes respond differentially to thinning intensity and climate? Methods We used tree-ring series from dominant| codominant| and overtopped trees to study the effects of thinning intensity on basal area increments (BAI) and climate sensitivity on windward (wet) and leeward (dry) slopes on Tenerife| Canary Islands. Three replicated blocks of control| light thinning| and heavy thinning stands were set on each slope in 1988| and cores were extracted in 2007. Results Heavy thinning induced growth release and increased BAI| mainly on dominant and codominant trees| whereas light thinning effects were negligible; their impacts were more intense on the windward side. Temperature sensitivity was hardly affected by thinning on leeward| where climate control was stronger. On windward| thinning enhanced the influence of summer temperatures. Upper crown classes were more sensitive overall| but overtopped trees responded better in summer. Thinning intensity and aspect greatly influence growth on Canary pine afforestations| but individual responses are highly dependent on crown classes. In addition| thinning may be less effective to modify growth conditions on leeward slopes| at least if not intense. 12287,2011,2,4,Effects of warming and nutrients on sediment community respiration in shallow lakes: an outdoor mesocosm experiment,P>1. Climate warming is expected to change respiration in shallow lakes but to an extent that depends on nutrient state. 2. We measured sediment respiration (SR) over the season in the dark on intact sediment cores taken from a series of flow-through| heated and unheated| nutrient-enriched and unenriched mesocosms. The natural seasonal temperature cycle ranged from 2 to 20 degrees C in the unheated mesocosms. In the heated mesocosms| the temperature was raised 4-6 degrees C above ambient temperatures| depending on season| following the A2 climate change scenario downscaled to the local position of the mesocosms| but enlarged by 50%. We further measured ecosystem respiration (ER) in the mesocosms based on semi-continuous oxygen measurements. 3. SR changed over the season and was approximately ten times higher in summer than in winter. SR showed no clear response to warming in the nutrient-enriched treatment| while it increased with warming in the unenriched mesocosms which also had lower fish densities. 4. ER was not affected by artificial warming or nutrient enrichment| but it was ten times higher in summer than in winter. 5. SR contributed 24-32% to ER. The SR:ER ratio was generally stimulated by warming and was higher in winter than in summer| especially in the nutrient-enriched mesocosms. 6. Our results indicate that climate warming may lead to higher SR| especially in clear| macrophyte-dominated systems. Moreover| the contribution of SR to ER will increase with higher temperatures| but decrease as the winters get shorter. 12429,2011,4,3,Effects of warming processes on droughts and water resources in the NW Iberian Peninsula (1930-2006),We analysed the evolution of drought on the NW Iberian Peninsula from 1930 to 2006| and identified differences between the effects of precipitation variability and warming processes on drought severity and surface water resources. Two drought indices were used| one based on precipitation (the standardised precipitation index| SPI) and the other based on water balance| as reflected by the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration| PET (the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index| SPEI). The results show that precipitation has increased in the region| but a significant increase has also occurred in PET. No statistically significant differences were found over the study period for the severity of drought| as assessed by both the SPI and SPEI. In addition| although in the last 3 decades the mean duration of drought episodes has increased by approximately 1 mo as a consequence of the increase of the PET rates| the differences are not statistically significant. River discharge is mainly driven by precipitation variability| whereas warming processes did not have a noticeable influence on the streamflow variability between 1930 and 2006. The implications of global warming projected by global climate models on future drought severity and the availability of water resources are highly relevant in the near future. 11603,2011,3,3,Effects of waste recovery on carbon footprint: a case study of the Gulf of Bothnia steel and zinc industries,This article analyses the impact of waste recovery on climate change mitigation on a regional scale. We focus on the EU End of Waste (EoW) policy| which aims at reducing negative impacts on the environment through the minimization of generated waste. At the same time| the EU climate objectives set challenging goals for the industry to lower greenhouse gas emissions. We argue that the goals of these two policies are conflicting: under certain circumstances| the EoW will lead into increased greenhouse gas emissions because of a number of negative feedback effects that function on multiple spatial and temporal scales. To assess the effects of waste recovery on greenhouse gas emissions| we carry out a consequential life-cycle inventory on a proposed industrial ecosystem around the Gulf of Bothnia between Finland and Sweden. The system recovers currently unutilized steelmaking dust and slag from four steel mills in Finland and Sweden and converts them into iron and zinc raw materials in a novel rotary hearth furnace. The recovered iron is led back into the blast furnace of one of the steel mills and zinc is treated in an existing zinc plant. In the European scale| the model system is significant in size| serving thus as a model for integrated EoW and carbon footprint assessments in other similar cases within the EU. The analysis reveals the relative greenhouse gas emissions from raw material extraction and production| heat and power generation| transport and the production process itself| in comparison to the present system with limited material recovery. To test the model viability| we conduct a sensitivity analysis with respect to increasing energy and production capacity. Our analysis shows that from the point of view of a single operator| material recovery may bring noteworthy reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. If the scale of the assessment is expanded beyond the confines of a single plant| however| we find limited potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions through further recovery of steelmaking residues. In conclusion| we provide policy recommendations with which the EoW paradigm can provide better support for climate change mitigation on a regional scale. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3329,2011,2,4,Effects of water temperatures| UV radiation and low vs high PAR on phlorotannin content and germination in zoospores of Saccorhiza dermatodea (Tilopteridales| Phaeophyceae),Global climate change will have multiple effects on our environment and might especially change marine coastal ecosystems and their communities due to rising water temperatures and changing light regimes in the water column. Due to the key role of zoospores in the life-history cycle of kelps| we investigated how zoospores of the shallow water species Saccorhiza dermatodea (B. de la Pylaie) J.E. Areschoug respond to interactive effects of changing water temperatures| low/high photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and UV radiation (UVR). Zoospores were examined with respect to germination pattern (germination rates| light micrographs) and phlorotannin content (Folin-Ciocalteu method). In summer 2007| we exposed S. dermatodea zoospores| obtained from fertile thalli in Kongsfjorden (Svalbard| Norway)| to low PAR laboratory [UV-B:UV-A:PAR (W m(-2)) 8:114:100; 2-17 degrees C] and high PAR outdoor experimental conditions [UV-B:UV-A:PAR (W m(-2)) 0.1:5:100; 7 degrees C] for 8 h. Under low PAR+UVR conditions and at 2-12 degrees C| almost 98% of zoospores germinated in all light treatments. The germination rate was reduced under PAR+UV-A+UV-B only in the 17 degrees C and 7 degrees C outdoor treatment| to 21.4% and 9.6%| respectively. Light microscopic investigations showed differences in germling appearance| growth and pigmentation in the outdoor treatment and at 17 degrees C low PAR conditions| compared with all other treatments| after an exposure time of 8 h. However| phlorotannin content within zoospores remained unaffected by changing UV and low/high PAR conditions. These results suggest that combined effects of present water temperatures| high PAR and UVR can exhibit similar effects on germination as the combined effects of unnatural high temperatures (17 degrees C)| low PAR and UVR. With respect to global climate change| the ecological implications of the present study illustrate that zoospores of S. dermatodea are able to survive enhanced water temperatures up to 12 degrees C. Moreover| high PAR in combination with UVR might potentially affect zoospores of S. dermatodea stronger than expected in clear waters. 3206,2011,3,3,Effects of wood char and activated carbon on the hydrolysis of cellobiose by beta-glucosidase from Aspergillus niger,Biochar amendments to soils have been suggested as a strategy to sequester carbon and therefore mitigate global climate change. The enrichment of soils with charred materials also increases their fertility. This fertilising effect of biochar may be caused by various mechanisms: an acceleration of nutrient cycling has been suggested as one such mechanism. The rate-limiting step in nutrient cycling is thought to be the extracellular enzymatic attack on biological macromolecules. In this study| therefore| the effects of chestnut wood char (specific surface area 2.0 m(2) g(-1)) and of activated carbon (specific surface area approximately 900 m(2) g(-1)) on an extracellular enzymatic reaction involved in the degradation of cellulose (i.e.| hydrolysis of cellobiose by beta-glucosidase from Aspergillus niger) were investigated. Cellobiose was not adsorbed by chestnut wood char| whereas activated carbon absorbed more than 97% of it. Both charred materials adsorbed more than 99% of beta-glucosidase. For chestnut wood char| adsorption of the enzyme caused a decrease of approximately 30% in the reaction rate| whereas for activated carbon| the nearly complete absorption of both substrate and enzyme entirely inhibited the reaction. These results show that beta-glucosidase from A. niger retains most of its activity when adsorbed to chestnut wood char and that the reaction it catalyses in nature is only slightly affected by this charred material. On the other hand| a material characterised by a high specific surface area and high porosity| such as activated carbon| can make even a highly soluble substrate unavailable for soil enzymes and therefore completely inhibit the reaction. Thus| charred materials may affect nutrient cycling mainly by regulating the availability of substrates: the degradation of highly soluble substrates may be accelerated by materials with low specific surface area| which maintain an active and protected enzyme pool| whereas materials with high specific surface and high porosity may slow down the degradation by making substrates unavailable. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12607,2011,3,4,Efficient Solar-Driven Synthesis| Carbon Capture| and Desalinization| STEP: Solar Thermal Electrochemical Production of Fuels| Metals| Bleach,STEP (solar thermal electrochemical production) theory is derived and experimentally verified for the electrosynthesis of energetic molecules at solar energy efficiency greater than any photovoltaic conversion efficiency. In STEP the efficient formation of metals| fuels| chlorine| and carbon capture is driven by solar thermal heated endothermic electrolyses of concentrated reactants occuring at a voltage below that of the room temperature energy stored in the products. One example is CO2| which is reduced to either fuels or storable carbon at a solar efficiency of over 50% due to a synergy of efficient solar thermal absorption and electrochemical conversion at high temperature and reactant concentration. CO2-free production of iron by STEP| from iron ore| occurs via Fe(III) in molten carbonate. Water is efficiently split to hydrogen by molten hydroxide electrolysis| and chlorine| sodium| and magnesium from molten chlorides. A pathway is provided for the STEP decrease of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to pre-industial age levels in 10 years. 3246,2011,2,4,El Nino and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean,This paper addresses the question of whether the increased occurrence of central Pacific (CP) versus Eastern Pacific (EP) El Ninos is consistent with greenhouse gas forced changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific as inferred from global climate change models. Our analysis uses high-quality satellite and in situ ocean data combined with wind data from atmospheric reanalyses for the past 31 years (1980-2010). We find changes in background conditions that are opposite to those expected from greenhouse gas forcing in climate models and opposite to what is expected if changes in the background state are mediating more frequent occurrences of CP El Ninos. A plausible interpretation of these results is that the character of El Nino over the past 31 years has varied naturally and that these variations projected onto changes in the background state because of the asymmetric spatial structures of CP and EP El Ni os. Citation: McPhaden| M. J.| T. Lee| and D. McClurg (2011)| El Nino and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L15709| doi: 10.1029/2011GL048275. 12403,2011,3,3,Electrosynthesis of cyclic carbonates from epoxides and atmospheric pressure carbon dioxide,The use of CO(2) for the preparation of value-added compounds has dramatically increased due to increased global warming concerns. We herein report an electrochemical cell containing a copper cathode and a magnesium anode that effectively converts epoxides and carbon dioxide to cyclic carbonates under mild electrochemical conditions at atmospheric pressure. 3431,2011,2,4,Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide impairs the performance of root-feeding vine weevils by modifying root growth and secondary metabolites,Predicting how insect crop pests will respond to global climate change is an important part of increasing crop production for future food security| and will increasingly rely on empirically based evidence. The effects of atmospheric composition| especially elevated carbon dioxide (eCO(2))| on insect herbivores have been well studied| but this research has focussed almost exclusively on aboveground insects. However| responses of root-feeding insects to eCO(2) are unlikely to mirror these trends because of fundamental differences between aboveground and belowground habitats. Moreover| changes in secondary metabolites and defensive responses to insect attack under eCO(2) conditions are largely unexplored for root herbivore interactions. This study investigated how eCO(2) (700 mu mol mol-1) affected a root-feeding herbivore via changes to plant growth and concentrations of carbon (C)| nitrogen (N) and phenolics. This study used the root-feeding vine weevil| Otiorhynchus sulcatus and the perennial crop| Ribes nigrum. Weevil populations decreased by 33% and body mass decreased by 23% (from 7.2 to 5.4 mg) in eCO(2). Root biomass decreased by 16% in eCO(2)| which was strongly correlated with weevil performance. While root N concentrations fell by 8%| there were no significant effects of eCO(2) on root C and N concentrations. Weevils caused a sink in plants| resulting in 8-12% decreases in leaf C concentration following herbivory. There was an interactive effect of CO(2) and root herbivory on root phenolic concentrations| whereby weevils induced an increase at ambient CO(2)| suggestive of defensive response| but caused a decrease under eCO(2). Contrary to predictions| there was a positive relationship between root phenolics and weevil performance. We conclude that impaired root-growth underpinned the negative effects of eCO(2) on vine weevils and speculate that the plant's failure to mount a defensive response at eCO(2) may have intensified these negative effects. 12712,2011,2,3,Elevated atmospheric CO2 and drought effects on leaf gas exchange properties of barley,Atmospheric CO2 concentration (C-a) is rising| predicted to cause global warming| and alter precipitation patterns. During 1994| spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L cv. Alexis) was grown in a strip-split-plot experimental design to determine the effects that the main plot C-a treatments [A: Ambient at 370 mu mol (CO2) mol(-1); E: Enriched with free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) at similar to 550 mu mol (CO2) mol(-1)] had on several gas exchange properties of fully expanded sunlit primary leaves. The interacting strip-split-plot irrigation treatments were Dry or Wet [50% (D) or 100% (W) replacement of potential evapotranspiration] at ample nitrogen (261 kg N ha(-1)) and phosphorous (29 kg P ha(-1)) fertility. Elevated C-a facilitated drought avoidance by reducing stomatal conductance (g(s)) by 34% that conserved water and enabled stomata to remain open for a longer period into a drought. This resulted in a 28% reduction in drought-induced midafternoon depression in net assimilation rate (A). Elevated C-a increased A by 37% under Dry and 23% under Wet. Any reduction in A under Wet conditions occurred because of nonstomatal limitations| whereas under Dry it occurred because of stomatal limitations. Elevated C-a increased the diurnal integral of A (A') that resulted in an increase in the seasonal-long integral of A' (A '') for barley leaves by 12% (P = 0.14) under both Dry and Wet - 650| 730| 905 and 1020 +/- 65 g (C) m(-2) y(-1) for AD| ED. AW and EW treatments| respectively. Elevated C-a increased season-long average dry weight (DWS; crown| shoots) by 14% (P = 0.02)| whereas deficit irrigation reduced DWS by 7% (P = 0.06)| although these values may have been affected by a short but severe pea aphid [Acyrthosiphon pisum (Harris)] infestation. Hence| an elevated-C-a-based improvement in gas exchange properties enhanced growth of a barley crop. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. 12241,2011,2,4,Elevated Autumn temperature promotes growth cessation and flower formation in black currant cultivars (Ribes nigrum L.),Actively-growing| single-stemmed plants of five Scandinavian and British cultivars of black currant (Ribes nigrum L.) were exposed to autumn temperatures of 9 degrees| 12 degrees| 18 degrees| and 24 degrees C in daylight phytotron compartments with natural daylength conditions at As| Norway (59 degrees 40' N) in order to evaluate the effects of elevated autumn temperature on growth cessation and floral initiation in this species. The treatments were started on 11 August and lasted until 13 October (9 weeks) when the plants were moved outdoors for cold-hardening for 7 weeks| then cold-stored at -2 degrees C over the Winter. The following Spring| the plants were moved into a heated greenhouse at 15 degrees C with natural daylength conditions and monitored for bud burst and flowering and fruiting performance. Unexpectedly| the cessation of growth in the Autumn was promoted by increasing temperature| and was earliest at 24 degrees C. The high-latitude cultivar| 'Ojebyn'| and the Norwegian-bred 'Kristin' were the most temperature-responsive cultivars| while the Norwegian cultivar| 'Narve Viking' was least influenced by Autumn temperature. Leaf senescence and abscission| which followed in due course| were also promoted by high Autumn temperature in 'Ojebyn'| but by low Autumn temperature in all other cultivars. Bud burst in the following Spring was consistently delayed by a few days by high Autumn temperature| while flowering was earliest in plants from intermediate temperatures. Furthermore| the magnitude of flowering was increased several-fold by elevated Autumn temperature| usually reaching an optimum at 18 degrees C. Again| this enhancement effect was least in `Narve Viking'| in which the extent of flowering was also significantly reduced when autumn temperatures increase from 18 degrees C to 24 degrees C. It is concluded that elevated Autumn temperature| as a consequence of global warming| does not represent a threat to the normal cessation of growth or floral initiation in black currant. 11552,2011,2,4,Elevated temperature may accelerate invasive expansion of the liana plant Ipomoea cairica,Numerous studies have shown that elevated CO(2) levels promote liana establishment in forests| thus suggesting their increased prevalence in the future in these habitats. Limited information exists| however| concerning the effects of potentially increasing global temperatures on these plants. The invasive liana Ipomoea cairica has infested many forests in South China. We hypothesised that elevated temperature could change the resource allocation pattern and allelopathic potential of this plant| resulting in increased invasiveness. We compared seed germination| growth rates and leachate phytotoxicity of I. cairica at three temperatures (22| 26 and 30 degrees C). The seed germination rates of I. cairica were 11.6%| 21.2% and 26.4% at 22| 26 and 30 degrees C respectively. Elevated temperature resulted in significant changes in morphology and biomass allocation of I. cairica. Shoot biomass of the plant increased| while the root biomass decreased with increasing temperature. Phytotoxicity of aqueous leachates from fresh leaves of I. cairica varied depending on receptor plants| but showed the strongest phytotoxic effects at the highest temperature (30 degrees C). Our results provide key information concerning the effects of elevated temperatures on the allelopathic potential| germination and growth of I. cairica and indicate that global warming could increase the invasiveness of this species. 12719,2011,3,3,Embodiment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Chinese Economy Based on Global Thermodynamic Potentials,This paper considers the Global Thermodynamic Potential (GTP) indicator to perform a unified assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions| and to systematically reveal the emission embodiment in the production| consumption| and international trade of the Chinese economy in 2007 as the most recent year available with input-output table and updated inventory data. The results show that the estimated total direct GHG emissions by the Chinese economy in 2007 amount to 10|657.5 Mt CO(2)-eq by the GTPs with 40.6% from CH(4) emissions in magnitude of the same importance as CO(2) emissions. The five sectors of Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply| Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals| Nonmetal Mineral Products| Agriculture| and Coal Mining and Dressing| are responsible for 83.3% of the total GHG emissions with different emission structures. The demands of coal and coal-electricity determine the structure of emission embodiment to an essential extent. The Construction sector holds the top GHG emissions embodied in both domestic production and domestic consumption. The GHG emission embodied in gross capital formation is more than those in other components of final demand characterized by extensive investment and limited household consumption. China is a net exporter of embodied GHG emissions| with a remarkable share of direct emission induced by international trade| such as textile products| industrial raw materials| and primary machinery and equipment products exports. The fractions of CH(4) in the component of embodied GHG emissions in the final demand are much greater than those fractions calculated by the Global Warming Potentials| which highlight the importance of CH(4) emissions for the case of China and indicate the essential effect of CH(4) emissions on global climate change. To understand the full context to achieve GHG emission mitigation| this study provides a new insight to address China's GHG emissions status and hidden emission information induced by the final demand to the related policy-makers. 12221,2011,4,1,Emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system in the Anthropocene,Global CO(2) emissions are understood to be the largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change| and have| to date| been highly correlated with economic output. However| there is likely to be a negative feedback between climate change and human wealth: economic growth is typically associated with an increase in CO(2) emissions and global warming| but the resulting climate change may lead to damages that suppress economic growth. This climate-economy feedback is assumed to be weak in standard climate change assessments. When the feedback is incorporated in a transparently simple model it reveals possible emergent behaviour in the coupled climate-economy system. Formulae are derived for the critical rates of growth of global CO(2) emissions that cause damped or long-term boom-bust oscillations in human wealth| thereby preventing a soft landing of the climate-economy system. On the basis of this model| historical rates of economic growth and decarbonization appear to put the climate-economy system in a potentially damaging oscillatory regime. 12860,2011,3,4,EMISSIONS DURING VOLATILES AND CHAR COMBUSTION PERIODS OF DEMINERALIZED LIGNITE AND WOOD BLENDS,Today| much interest has been given to the utilization of materials of plant origin as substitutions of fossil fuels in meeting energy needs to reduce the level of atmospheric pollutant emissions and global warming threat. Special emphasis has been placed on the co-combustion of coal and biomass. In this study| SO2 and NOx emission levels during volatiles evolution and combustion periods of single pellets of one high sulfur content lignite| demineralized lignite| poplar wood| and their blends were studied by burning them in a cylindrical wire mesh basket placed into a preheated tube furnace. Flue gas composition revealed that majority of sulfur-containing components evolved and oxidized to SO2 during volatiles combustion| and no SO2 was involved during the most length of char combustion period. NOx emissions were only in the form of NO| confined mostly in volatile matter combustion periods| and continued after disappearance of volatiles flames in very smaller levels. NO formation can be explained mostly by fuel and volatiles flame NO mechanisms. Except lignite-wood blend| no synergy was observed in the combustion of demineralized lignite-wood blends in terms of pollutant components. 11637,2011,2,4,Emotions| Trust| and Perceived Risk: Affective and Cognitive Routes to Flood Preparedness Behavior,Despite the prognoses of the effects of global warming (e.g.| rising sea levels| increasing river discharges)| few international studies have addressed how flood preparedness should be stimulated among private citizens. This article aims to predict Dutch citizens' flood preparedness intentions by testing a path model| including previous flood hazard experiences| trust in public flood protection| and flood risk perceptions (both affective and cognitive components). Data were collected through questionnaire surveys in two coastal communities (n = 169| n = 244) and in one river area community (n = 658). Causal relations were tested by means of structural equation modeling (SEM). Overall| the results indicate that both cognitive and affective mechanisms influence citizens' preparedness intentions. First| a higher level of trust reduces citizens' perceptions of flood likelihood| which in turn hampers their flood preparedness intentions (cognitive route). Second| trust also lessens the amount of dread evoked by flood risk| which in turn impedes flood preparedness intentions (affective route). Moreover| the affective route showed that levels of dread were especially influenced by citizens' negative and positive emotions related to their previous flood hazard experiences. Negative emotions most often reflected fear and powerlessness| while positive emotions most frequently reflected feelings of solidarity. The results are consistent with the affect heuristic and the historical context of Dutch flood risk management. The great challenge for flood risk management is the accommodation of both cognitive and affective mechanisms in risk communications| especially when most people lack an emotional basis stemming from previous flood hazard events. 12277,2011,4,4,Energy budget of the extreme Autumn 2006 in Europe,Autumn 2006 was extraordinarily mild in many parts of Europe. Near-surface temperatures were more than three standard deviations above the 1961-1990 climatology. Even accounting for global warming| this event was far outside the probability density function of previous observations or climate model simulations. To investigate the mechanisms behind this event| the energy-budget for Autumn 2006 in Europe is estimated. Atmospheric energy-transport convergence over Europe is calculated and compared with the net energy flux at the top of the atmosphere as well as at the earth's surface. The central North-Atlantic Ocean constituted the major source of energy. Here| the release of both sensible and latent heat was anomalously high. Atmospheric circulation played a crucial role by transporting the excess energy into Europe. Of this energy excess| dry-static energy was larger than the latent part| partly due to an additional contribution derived from a conversion of latent energy to sensible heat| which occurred upstream of the study area in the eastern Atlantic. In Europe| surface turbulent-energy fluxes into the atmosphere respond to atmospheric energy-transport convergence and are accordingly suppressed due to the anomalously high temperature and humidity content of the overlying air. The net outflow of radiational energy to space is anomalously high but not sufficient to offset the large positive anomaly of energy found over Europe. Even though the relative humidity was near its normal values in Europe| the specific humidity was considerably higher than usual. The high water-vapour content induced a local radiative positive feedback| increasing the opacity of the atmosphere to long-wave radiation. This appears to have significantly contributed to the extreme event. Atmospheric circulation played a crucial role in sustaining this feedback loop. 12815,2011,3,2,Energy Consumption and the Power Saving Potential of a University in Korea: Using a Field Survey,With its rapid economic development Korea is faced with the problems of energy consumption and environmental destruction that are in need of urgent solutions. Since buildings account for 25% of Korea's total energy consumption they are the key target in the reduction of carbon dioxide| the principal culprit of global warming. This paper focused on the thoughtless energy waste in universities and researched the characteristics of campus buildings| surveying the energy consumption patterns identified in accordance with the number of users and the period of use. In addition| this paper also established an optimized limitation of future energy consumption by forecasting the trend of growing consumption after examining the kinds and quantities of energy installations being utilized in campus buildings. 11663,2011,3,4,Energy consumption criteria and labeling program of wet cooling towers in Iran,Increasing concerns about the lack of energy resources| global warming and environmental pollution have pushed the relevant organizations to develop energy saving strategies such as energy labeling programs. In this research| a new energy labeling program is developed and evaluated for the wet cooling towers in Iran. The cooling tower parameters| including its cooling capacity and the fan power consumption| are measured using an experimental setup. The experimental data are standardized to compensate the effect of the ambient wet bulb temperature on the cooling tower performance which cannot be controlled during the experiments. The results show that the cooling tower capacity and the fan power consumption may be correlated properly using a linear function which conducts the authors to present a linear energy index (El). Based on the statistical analysis of a comprehensive range of products| the energy rating limits are extracted for the main types of cooling towers| including induced draft and forced draft ones. The economical and environmental impression of the program authorization is also discussed in detail. Administration of such program may lead to considerable energy saving in the cooling systems which have major economical and environmental benefits| especially in the large industries. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11987,2011,3,3,ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IRRIGATED WHEAT AND RAINFED WHEAT PRODUCTION: CASE STUDY FOR TOKAT REGION| TURKEY,The aim of this study was to determine the input-output energy consumption and to make a cost analysis of both irrigated wheat and rainfed wheat production in Tokat province (Turkey). The results showed that the amount of energy consumed in irrigated wheat production was 13 205.90 MJ ha(-1) and in rainfed wheat production was 14 134. 93 MJ ha(-1). In the surveyed farm holdings| the energy input-output ratio for the irrigated wheat was 3.80| while benefit-cost ratio was 0.81. The productivity of irrigated wheat was calculated to be 3.67. The energy input-output ratio for rainfed wheat was 2.51| while the benefit-cost ratio was 0.53. The productivity of rainfed wheat was calculated to be 2.43. About 77% of the total energy inputs used in irrigated wheat production was non-renewable| while only about 23% was renewable. The total energy input used in rainfed wheat production was non-renewable 75% and 25% renewable energy. This study suggested that diesel-oil and fertilizers were not efficiently used. Intensive input use in irrigated wheat and rainfed wheat raises some problems like environmental pollution and global warming 12480,2011,3,4,Energy performance of lighting systems,For a number of years| the attention has been drawn to the issue of energy saving not only in the field of lighting| but also in many other areas. A crucial moment in the process of dealing with this issue was the opening of the discussions on global warming. One of the effects of this discussion is that the pressure on a fast introduction of new technologies| procedures and new legislation| which would result in reducing energy performance of outdoor as well as indoor lighting systems| has been increasing. This paper deals with the relationship between the technical parameters of illumination and the energy performance of lighting and describes possible trends in achieving energy efficient lighting systems. 11937,2011,3,3,Energy saving potential and repercussions on indoor air quality of demand controlled residential ventilation strategies,Ventilation is ambiguously related to the energy saving rationale originating from the mitigation of global warming| the reaching of peak oil or health concerns related to fossil fuel burning. Since it makes up for about half of the energy consumption in well-insulated buildings| it is an attractive target for energy saving measures. However| simply reducing ventilation rates has unwanted repercussions on the indoor air quality. Two main strategies have been developed to reconcile these seemingly opposing interests: heat recovery and demand control ventilation. This paper focuses on the energy saving potential of demand controlled mechanical exhaust ventilation in residences and on the influence such systems may have on the indoor air quality to which the occupants of the dwellings are exposed. The conclusions are based on simulations done with a multi-zone airflow model of a detached house that is statistically representative for the average Belgian dwelling. Four approaches to demand based control are tested and reported. Within the paper exposure to carbon dioxide and to a tracer gas are used as indicators for indoor air quality. Both energy demand and exposures are reported and compared to the results for a standard| building code compliant| exhaust system| operating at continuous flow rates. The sensitivity of the control strategies to environmental and user variations is tested using Monte-Carlo techniques. Under the conditions that were applied| reductions on the ventilation heat loss of 25-60% are found| depending on the chosen control strategy (with the exclusion of adventitious ventilation and infiltration). (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11604,2011,3,4,Energy-related logics of action throughout the ages in France: historical milestones| stages of life and intergenerational transmissions,Energy use is a very important question nowadays in the context of global warming and the cost of energy. "Energy conservation" is paradoxal: environmental awareness is increasing| but so is energy demand. Sociological knowledge concerning energy uses and energy savings remain important to understand the possible evolution of practices and values and thus possible future energy policies. Can the "consumer society" become a "less energy-intensive" society? This paper's purpose was to understand how individuals| at each stage of life| in the context of historic events and intra-familial relationships| build a specific relationship to energy and "energy care" (paying attention to energy) and a specific appropriation of public policies| energy-efficient technologies and environmental discourses. The notion of "logics of action" provides a way to combine the analysis of historical events and the analysis of daily practices| integrating the way people act| the justification of actions and the dynamics of life course stages. The social age approach has policy implications| for example| helping to segment people's profiles and to tailor the tools to age groups. The paper also questions the fact that some policies focus on children to transmit their messages. This paper is based on the analysis of several qualitative studies in various age groups of French people. 12376,2011,2,4,Enhanced Modern Heat Transfer to the Arctic by Warm Atlantic Water,The Arctic is responding more rapidly to global warming than most other areas on our planet. Northward-flowing Atlantic Water is the major means of heat advection toward the Arctic and strongly affects the sea ice distribution. Records of its natural variability are critical for the understanding of feedback mechanisms and the future of the Arctic climate system| but continuous historical records reach back only similar to 150 years. Here| we present a multidecadal-scale record of ocean temperature variations during the past 2000 years| derived from marine sediments off Western Svalbard (79 degrees N). We find that early-21st-century temperatures of Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean are unprecedented over the past 2000 years and are presumably linked to the Arctic amplification of global warming. 12581,2011,3,3,Enhanced role of Al or Ga-doped graphene on the adsorption and dissociation of N(2)O under electric field,To find an effective strategy for the capture and decomposition of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) is very important in order to protect the ozone layer and control the effects of global warming. Based on first-principles calculations| such a strategy is proposed by the systemic study of N(2)O interaction with pristine and Al (or Ga)-doped graphene| and N(2)O dissociation on the surface of Al (or Ga)-doped graphene in an applied electric field. The calculated adsorption energy value shows the N(2)O molecule more firmly adsorbs on the surface of Al (or Ga)-doped graphene than that of pristine graphene| deriving from a stronger covalent bond between the N(2)O molecule and the Al (or Ga) atom. Furthermore| our study suggests that N(2)O molecules can be easily decomposed to N(2) and O(2) with the appropriate electric field| which reveals that Al-doped graphene may be a new candidate for control of N(2)O. 11591,2011,2,4,ENSO nonlinearity in a warming climate,The El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known as the strongest natural inter-annual climate signal| having widespread consequences on the global weather| climate| ecology and even on societies. Understanding ENSO variations in a changing climate is therefore of primordial interest to both the climate community and policy makers. In this study| we focus on the change in ENSO nonlinearity due to climate change. We first analysed high statistical moments of observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) timeseries of the tropical Pacific based on the measurement of the tails of their Probability Density Function (PDF). This allows defining relevant metrics for the change in nonlinearity observed over the last century. Based on these metrics| a zonal "see-saw" (oscillation) in nonlinearity patterns is highlighted that is associated with the change in El Nio characteristics observed in recent years. Taking advantage of the IPCC database and the different projection scenarios| it is showed that changes in El Nio statistics (or "flavour") from a present-day climate to a warmer climate are associated with a significant change in nonlinearity patterns. In particular| in the twentieth century climate| the "conventional" eastern Pacific El Nio relates more to changes in nonlinearity than to changes in mean state whereas the central Pacific El Nio (or Modoki El Nio) is more sensitive to changes in mean state than to changes in nonlinearity. An opposite behaviour is found in a warmer climate| namely the decreasing nonlinearity in the eastern Pacific tends to make El Nio less frequent but more sensitive to mean state| whereas the increasing nonlinearity in the west tends to trigger Central Pacific El Nio more frequently. This suggests that the change in ENSO statistics due to climate change might result from changes in the zonal contrast of nonlinearity characteristics across the tropical Pacific. 11631,2011,3,2,Environmental and economic assessments of magnetic and inertial fusion energy reactors,Global warming due to rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is one of the present-day crucial problems| and fusion reactors are expected to be abundant electric power generation systems to reduce human GHG emission amounts. To search for an environmental-friendly and economical fusion reactor system| comparative system studies have been done for several magnetic fusion energy reactors| and have been extended to include inertial fusion energy reactors. We clarify new scaling formulae for the cost of electricity and GHG emission rate with respect to key design parameters| which might be helpful in making a strategy for fusion research development. Comparisons with other conventional electric power generation systems are carried out taking into account the introduction of GHG taxes and the application of the carbon dioxide capture and storage system to fossil power generators. 11569,2011,3,4,Environmental and economic profile of six typologies of wastewater treatment plants,The objective of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is to prevent pollution. However| it is necessary to assess their sustainability in order to ensure that pollution is being removed| not displaced. In this research| the performance of 24 WWTPs has been evaluated using a streamlined Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) with Eutrophication Potential (EP) and Global Warming Potential (GWP) as environmental indicators| and operational costs as economic indicators. WWTPs were further classified in six typologies by their quality requirements according to their final discharge point or water reuse. Moreover| two different functional units (FU)| one based on volume (m(3)) and the other on eutrophication reduction (kg PO(4)(3-) removed) were used to further determine sustainability. A correlation between legal requirements and technologies used to achieve them was found: Organic matter removal plants were found to be less costly both in environmental and economic terms if volume was used as the functional unit| while more demanding typologies such as reuse plants showed a trade-off between lower EP and higher cost and GWP; however| this is overcome if the second FU is used instead| proving the sustainability of these options and that this FU better reflects the objectives of a WWTP. (C) 2011. Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12238,2011,3,4,Environmental Assessment of a Sugar Cane Bagasse Food Tray Produced by Roots Biopack-Results of a Shortcut-Life Cycle Assessment,In this study| an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) is performed| in which a sugar cane bagasse food tray (produced by Roots Biopack) is compared to food trays made from polyethylene terephthalate (PET)| polylactide (PLA) and moulded pulp. This LCA study has been conducted both for the system boundary "cradle-to-factory gate" and "cradle-to-grave." As default case| electricity from wind energy is assumed for the bagasse tray factory in China. The cradle-to-factory gate results show that the bagasse tray has lowest impacts for non-renewable energy use (NREU) global warming| abiotic depletion and acidification. The PET tray has highest environmental impacts for NREU| global warming and abiotic depletion. Compared to PLA| the bagasse tray has lower impacts for NREU| abiotic depletion| acidification| eutrophication| global warming and land use| but higher impacts for renewable energy use (REU) and photochemical oxidant formation. If incineration with energy recovery is applied in the waste stage| the environmental impacts decrease| except for global warming. A contribution analysis of the full life cycle of the bagasse tray (cradle-to-grave) shows that waste management and the production of the sugar cane bagasse contribute most to the total environmental impacts. All in all| it can be concluded that the bagasse tray has good environmental performance. 3315,2011,3,4,Environmental assessment of black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.)-based ethanol as potential transport fuel,Lignocellulosic ethanol has received special research interest| driven by concerns over high fuel prices| security of energy supplies| global climate change as well as the search of opportunities for rural economic development. A well-to-wheel analysis was conducted for ethanol obtained from black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) by means of the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. This study assesses the environmental profile of using ethanol in mixtures E10 and E85 as transport fuel in comparison with conventional gasoline (CG). In addition| the best model of black locust cultivation was analysed under an environmental point of view. The standard framework of LCA from International Standards Organisation was followed. To compare the environmental profiles| the study addressed the impact potentials taking into account the distance travelled by vehicles with the fuel tank full of CG. The product system includes all the processes involved from the black locust cultivation to the final use of fuels in a vehicle. The transport of all the chemicals and products is also included in the system boundaries. According to the results| fuel ethanol derived from black locust biomass may help to reduce the contributions to global warming| acidification| eutrophication and fossil fuels use specifically due to the low input production regime of the agricultural stage. These reductions would be increased with the increasing ratio of ethanol in the blend. Moreover| the use of lignin| biogas and other solid waste as fuel to meet the energy requirements of the plant| positively contribute to the environmental profile of cellulosic ethanol. On the contrary| ethanol blends are less environment friendly that CG in terms of photochemical oxidants formation. The cultivation of black locust following a low-input production regime| without agrochemicals application and extra irrigation is an important reason for the environmental improvement. Efforts should be made to promote the production of black locust according to principles of sustainable cultivation. Moreover| technological development in ethanol production could help to improve the environmental profile in the life cycle of ethanol-based fuels. It could be interesting to develop a strategic planning which allows identifying the potential regions not only in Italy but also in other European countries in order to increase the black locust biomass yield. The cultivation of short rotation forestry and/or short rotation coppices under low-input regimes presents potential environmental benefits and advantages for the future of second-generation ethanol production in Europe. 11828,2011,4,4,Environmental assessment of cod (Gadus morhua) from autoline fisheries,Purpose The main purpose of this study has been to document the environmental performance of products based on autoline-caught cod and the distribution of environmental impacts in the value chain from fishing to retail. Another aim has been to document the performed environmental improvement analyses. Methods Standard life cycle assessment methodology has been employed and the following impact categories studied: global warming potential (GWP)| acidification| eutrophication| photochemical oxidant formation| ozone layer depletion and cumulative energy demand. Results and discussion Products derived from autoline-caught cod have a GWP in the range of 0.16-7.6/1.7-4.4 kg CO2-eq/kg product delivered to consumer| using economic and mass allocation| respectively. The main impacts come from fuel consumption and release of refrigerants in the fishery. The products studied represent each of the four major processing outputs. The differences between the products can partly be attributed to differences in methodology (system borders| allocation)| partly to actual physical differences. A comparison with published results from other studies indicates that seafood products sourced from Northeast Arctic cod fished with the autoline method has a relatively good environmental performance. A number of possible options for improving the environmental performance of the products were identified. The most internal improvement action was stopping leakages in fish freezers. Conclusions This study has given a detailed overview of the environmental performance of seafood products sourced from Northeast Arctic cod from autoline fisheries in Norwegian territorial waters. This study has demonstrated the usefulness of such results in improving the environmental performance of the products. However| the usefulness of the results in communication to external actors is limited because few data exists on other products fulfilling the same functions and using the exact same methodology and assumptions. In order to achieve comparability between results from competing products| it is necessary to use a standardised and detailed calculation method. At the moment| no such method seems to be available. The literature study indicated that the environmental impact of Northeast Arctic cod products sourced from autoline fisheries compares well with other cod products on the market. Some cod stocks are sustainably managed| others not. Hence| it is recommended to break down results not only to species level but also fish stock level when the aim is to guide seafood customers towards making informed purchasing decisions. 11712,2011,3,4,Environmental assessment of dehydrated alfalfa production in Spain,Alfalfa is the major forage crop produced in temperate regions worlwide. Although this crop is currently used mainly for producing high-value livestock feed| its application for bioenergy production is a recent focus of interest. Even though it is not mandatory| alfalfa is normally dried in order to improve the quality of the final product. In this study| Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was used to quantify the environmental impacts linked to alfalfa production in the major cultivation zone in Spain (Ebro Valley). including field activities| dehydration and transport to farms for livestock feeding. In addition| the identification of the most relevant processes contributing to the environmental impact and the potential improvements actions were also defined as objectives. Inventory data were obtained mainly from interviews with farmers complemented with published literature and comments from experts. LCA results were obtained for global warming| acidification| eutrophication| photochemical oxidant Formation| land use| non-renewable cumulative energy demand and human| terrestrial and aquatic ecotoxicities. Within the life cycle of alfalfa| the dehydration process| production of phosphate fertilizer. application of nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides| water consumption and final transport to the consumer (by road and ship) were identified as hot spots. Based on these| some improvement measures were proposed and evaluated: (i) reduction of the moisture content of alfalfa and the use of a higher percentage of biomass for combustion in the dehydration process| (ii) no application of nitrogen fertilizer in maintenance years and (iii) use of more efficient trucks for transport. Their implementation would produce significant reduction of eutrophication| global warming| acidification| non-renewable cumulative energy demand and| to a lesser extent| photochemical oxidation formation and human toxicity impacts. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12273,2011,3,4,Environmental assessment of green hardboard production coupled with a laccase activated system,European consumption of wood-based panels reached record levels in recent years driven mostly by demand from end-use sectors: residential construction| furniture| cabinets| flooring and mouldings. The main panel types are composite boards such as particleboard| high density fiberboard (HDF)| medium-density fiberboard (MDF) and other adhesively bonded composites such as plywood and wet-process fiberboard (hardboard). The synthetic resins used in their manufacture come from non-renewable resources| such as oil and gas. Several consequences are associated to this type of adhesives: variation in the availability and cost of these wood adhesives depends on raw materials| the formaldehyde emissions as well as the limited recyclability of the final product. Hence| in the search for alternatives to petroleum-based wood adhesives| efforts are being devoted to develop adhesives by using phenolic substitutes based on lignin| tannin or starch. In this context| the forest industry is increasingly approaching to enzyme technology in the search of solutions. The main goal of this study was to assess the environmental impacts during the life cycle of a new process for the manufacture of hardboards manufacture| considering the use of a two-component bio-adhesive formulated with a wood-based phenolic material and a phenol-oxidizing enzyme. This new product was compared to the one manufactured with the conventional phenol-formaldehyde resin. The study covers the life cycle of green hardboards production from a cradle-to-gate perspective| analysing in detail the hardboard plant and dividing the process chain in three subsystems: Fibers Preparation| Board Forming and Board Finishing. Auxiliary activities such as chemicals| bio-adhesive| wood chips| thermal energy and electricity production and transport were included within the system boundaries. Global warming (GW)| photochemical oxidant formation (PO)| acidification (AC) and eutrophication (EP) were the impact categories analysed in this study. Additionally| the cumulative energy demand was evaluated as another impact category. According to the results| four stages significantly influenced the environmental burdens of the production system: laccase production| on-site thermal energy and electricity production as well as wood chipping stage. Due to the environmental impact associated to the production of green bonding agents| a sensitivity analysis with special focus on the eutrophying emissions was carried out by evaluating the amount of laccase and lignin based phenolic material used. The combined reduction in both bonding agents may slightly reduce the contributions to this impact category. In addition| a hypothetical scenario with no laccase and with a higher concentration of the lignin based material (25% more) could improve the environmental profile in all impact categories with a reduction of 1.5% in EP. Further research should focus mainly on laccase production| in order to reduce its energy demand as well as on the amount of green adhesive required to obtain mechanical and swelling properties similar to those of conventional hardboard. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12019,2011,3,4,Environmental assessment of sewage sludge as secondary raw material in cement production - A case study in China,A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of sewage sludge as secondary raw material in cement production. To confirm and add credibility to the study| uncertainty analysis was conducted. Results showed the impact generated from respiratory inorganics| terrestrial ecotoxicity| global warming| and non-renewable energy categories had an important contribution to overall environmental impact| due to energy| clinker| and limestone production stages. Also| uncertainty analysis results showed the technology of sewage sludge as secondary raw material in cement production had little or no effect on changing the overall environmental potential impact generated from general cement production. Accordingly| using the technology of sewage sludge as secondary raw material in cement production is a good choice for reducing the pressure on the environment from dramatically increased sludge disposal. In addition| increasing electricity recovery rate| choosing natural gas fired electricity generation technology| and optimizing the raw material consumption in clinker production are highly recommended to reduce the adverse effects on the environment. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11879,2011,3,4,Environmental assessment: (LCA) and spatial modelling (GIS) of energy crop implementation on local scale,Environmental analysis tools as LCA and GIS have been combined to provide an integrated methodology able to determine suitable areas for cultivating Brassica spp. (B. carinata and B. napus) and Populus spp and for proposing local and decentralised energy production and consumption scenario. The methodology is applied and verified in a Catalonia (southern Europe) case study area but it can be extrapolated to other Mediterranean regions with similar agroclimates. The results obtained show that a high impact reduction in potential global warming category can be achieved annually (annual reduction of 1|954|904 Mg of CO(2) eq.) in a local scale scenario. Environmental integration such as GIS and LCA provide a methodology capable of giving enough information and results to determine an energy crop implementation strategy for reducing energy consumption and CO(2) eq. emissions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11911,2011,3,4,Environmental Consequences of Future Biogas Technologies Based on Separated Slurry,This consequential life cycle assessment study highlights the key environmental aspects of producing biogas from separated pig and cow slurry| a relatively new but probable scenario for future biogas production| as it avoids the reliance on constrained carbon cosubstrates. Three scenarios involving different slurry separation technologies have been assessed and compared to a business-as-usual reference slurry management scenario. The results show that the environmental benefits of such biogas production are highly dependent upon the efficiency of the separation technology used to concentrate the volatile solids in the solid fraction. The biogas scenario involving the most efficient separation technology resulted in a dry matter separation efficiency of 87% and allowed a net reduction of the global warming potential of 40%| compared to the reference slurry management. This figure comprises the whole slurry life cycle| including the flows bypassing the biogas plant. This study includes soil carbon balances and a method for quantifying the changes in yield resulting from increased nitrogen availability as well as for quantifying mineral fertilizers displacement. Soil carbon balances showed that between 13 and 50% less carbon ends up in the soil pool with the different biogas alternatives| as opposed to the reference slurry management. 11898,2011,2,4,Environmental constraints influencing survival of an African parasite in a north temperate habitat: effects of temperature on development within the host,The monogenean Protopolystoma xenopodis has been established in Wales for >40 years following introduction with Xenopus laevis from South Africa. This provides an experimental system for determining constraints affecting introduced species in novel environments. Parasite development post-infection was followed at 15| 20 and 25 degrees C for 15 weeks and at 10 degrees C for >= 1 year and correlated with temperatures recorded in Wales. Development was slowed/arrested at <= 10 degrees C which reflects habitat conditions for >6 months/year. There was wide variation in growth at constant temperature (body size differing by >10 times) potentially attributable in part to genotype-specific host-parasite interactions. Parasite density had no effect on size but host sex did: worms in males were 1.8 times larger than in females. Minimum time to patency was 51 days at 25 degrees C and 73 days at 20 degrees C although some infections were still not patent at both temperatures by 105 days p.i. In Wales| fastest developing infections may mature within one summer (about 12 weeks)| possibly accelerated by movements of hosts into warmer surface waters. Otherwise| development slows/stops in October-April| delaying patency to about 1 year p.i.| while wide variation in developmental rates may impose delays of 2 years in some primary infections and even longer in secondary infections. 11897,2011,2,4,Environmental constraints influencing survival of an African parasite in a north temperate habitat: effects of temperature on egg development,Factors affecting survival of parasites introduced to new geographical regions include changes in environmental temperature. Protopolystoma xenopodis is a monogenean introduced with the amphibian Xenopus laevis from South Africa to Wales (probably in the 1960s) where low water temperatures impose major constraints on life-cycle processes. Effects were quantified by maintenance of eggs from infections in Wales under controlled conditions at 10| 12| 15| 18| 20 and 25 degrees C. The threshold for egg viability/development was 15 degrees C. Mean times to hatching were 22 days at 25 degrees C| 32 days at 20 degrees C| extending to 66 days at 15 degrees C. Field temperature records provided calibration of transmission schedules. Although egg production continues year-round| all eggs produced during >8 months/year die without hatching. Output contributing significantly to transmission is restricted to 10 weeks (May-mid-July). Host infection| beginning after a time lag of 8 weeks for egg development| is also restricted to 10 weeks (July-September). Habitat temperatures (mean 15.5 degrees C in summer 2008) allow only a narrow margin for life-cycle progress: even small temperature increases| predicted with 'global warming'| enhance infection. This system provides empirical data on the metrics of transmission permitting long-term persistence of isolated parasite populations in limiting environments. 11873,2011,2,4,Environmental controls of phenology of high-latitude Chinook salmon populations of the Yukon River| North America| with application to fishery management,Phenologies of a number of anadromous fish species have been demonstrated to vary in concert with environmental factors that change with global warming| such as water and air temperatures. Anadromous fishery managers will need advice from models of phenology| or migratory timing| as functions of environmental factors in those harvest areas where annual migratory timing can vary sharply. Such models are also necessary to advise fishery managers on how and when global warming projections of the IPCC model ensemble should be factored into regulatory decisions. Specifically| we demonstrate that the annual timing of marine exit of Yukon River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) at 63 degrees N 165 degrees W for 1961-2009 varied in close concert with modelled sea surface temperature| air temperature| and sea ice cover. The best linear model for 1961-2009 combines sea surface and air temperatures to explain 59% of the annual variability in migratory timing (ice cover is available only for 1970-2009). Changes in phenology of high-latitude Chinook salmon are expected in response to global warming. As average temperatures increase| the frequency of earlier migrations is expected to increase| making management of the fishery more challenging. 11593,2011,2,4,Environmental dependence of population dynamics and height growth of a subalpine conifer across its vertical distribution: an approach using high-resolution aerial photographs,Many studies have reported shifts in the altitudinal ranges of plant species in response to recent global warming. However| most studies of tree species have been conducted on a small scale and have focused on tree line ecotones by examining tree rings and age structure on account of the long life spans of the trees. To examine the impact of climate change on forest dynamics at a regional scale| we investigated differences in the population density and canopy height of a Japanese subalpine coniferous species| Abies mariesii| between 1967 and 2003 by analysis of high-resolution aerial photographs of the Hakkoda Mountains| Honshu| Japan. In 712 plots within the photographs we analyzed which environmental variables (including elevation| aspect| wetness| and distance from moorlands) account for these changes. The population density of A. mariesii decreased below 1000 m a.s.l. and increased above 1300 m a.s.l. It also increased around moorlands| which may provide refugia at low elevations. The rate of increase in canopy height was lowest on the southeastern slopes and on the periphery of the moorlands. The distinct changes in the population density of A. mariesii at its distribution limits probably reflect the responses of the population to climatic changes during three decades. Areas surrounding the moorlands may offer refugia in spite of the poor growing conditions there. 11792,2011,3,3,Environmental evaluation of hydrogen production via thermochemical water splitting using the Cu-Cl Cycle: A parametric study,Variations of environmental impacts with lifetime and production capacity are reported for nuclear based hydrogen production plants using the three-| four- and five-step (copper-chlorine) Cu-CI thermochemical water decomposition cycles. Life cycle assessment is utilized which is essential to evaluate and to decrease the overall environmental impact of any system and/or product. The life cycle assessments of the hydrogen production processes indicate that the four-step Cu-Cl cycle has lower environmental impacts than the three- and five-step cycles due to its lower thermal energy requirement. Parametric studies show for the four-step Cu-Cl cycle that acidification and global warming potentials can be reduced from 0.0031 to 0.0028 kg SO(2)-eq and from 0.63 to 0.55 kg CO(2)-eq| respectively| if the lifetime of the system increases from 10 to 100 years. Copyright (C) 2011| Hydrogen Energy Publications| LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12800,2011,3,3,Environmental evaluation of municipal waste prevention,Waste prevention has been addressed in the literature in terms of the social and behavioural aspects| but very little quantitative assessment exists of the environmental benefits. Our study evaluates the environmental consequences of waste prevention on waste management systems and on the wider society| using life-cycle thinking. The partial prevention of unsolicited mail| beverage packaging and food waste is tested for a "High-tech" waste management system relying on high energy and material recovery and for a "Low-tech" waste management system with less recycling and relying on landfilling. Prevention of 13% of the waste mass entering the waste management system generates a reduction of loads and savings in the waste management system for the different impacts categories; 45% net reduction for nutrient enrichment and 12% reduction for global warming potential. When expanding our system and including avoided production incurred by the prevention measures| large savings are observed (15-fold improvement for nutrient enrichment and 2-fold for global warming potential). Prevention of food waste has the highest environmental impact saving. Prevention generates relatively higher overall relative benefit for "Low-tech" systems depending on landfilling. The paper provides clear evidence of the environmental benefits of waste prevention and has specific relevance in climate change mitigation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12483,2011,3,3,Environmental impact analysis of chemicals and energy consumption in wastewater treatment plants: case study of Oslo| Norway,Wastewater treatment plants| while performing the important function of treating wastewater to meet the prescribed discharge standards| consume energy and a variety of chemicals. This paper analyses the consumption of energy and chemicals by wastewater treatment plants in Oslo over eight years| and their potential environmental impacts. Global warming and acidification were the dominant impacts for chemicals and energy| respectively. Avoided impacts due to usable by-products - sludge| ammonium nitrate and biogas - play a key role in shrinking the environmental footprint of the wastewater plants. The scope for decreasing this footprint by streamlining energy and chemicals consumption is limited| however| considering that over 70% of the impact is accounted for by the eutrophication potential (thanks to the nitrogen and phosphorus which is discharged to the sink) of the treated effluent wastewater. 3488,2011,3,2,Environmental impact of coal mine methane emissions and responding strategies in China,The impact on global climate change from coal mine methane emissions in China has been drawing attention as coal production has powered its economic development. Data on coal mine methane emissions from the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety of China has been analyzed. It is estimated that the methane emission from coal mining in China reached 20 billions of cubic meters in 2008| most of which comes from state-owned coal mines with high-gas content. China releases six times as much of methane from coal mines as compared to the United States. However| Chinese methane emission from coal production accounts for only a very small proportion on the environmental impact when compared to emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption. The Chinese government has shown environmental awareness and resolution on the mitigation and utilization of coal mine methane emissions. Measures have been taken to implement the programs of mitigation and utilization of coal mine methane| and at the same time| to ensure mining safety. Nearly 7.2 billions of cubic meters of methane were drained from the coal mines| and 32% of it was utilized in 2008. The slow advancement of technologies for the drainage and utilization of low-concentration methane from ventilation air hinders the progress of mitigation of atmospheric methane and the utilization of coal mine methane emissions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12318,2011,3,3,ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT SCENARIO OF AN AZIMUTHAL TRACKED PV PLATFORM BASED ON CO(2) EMISSIONS REDUCTION,The progressive technological development of world countries contributed to global warming effect due to the quantities of greenhouse gases emitted. The development and implementation of photovoltaic (PV) systems| and thus renewable energies| represents a trend in achieving the objectives specified in Kyoto protocol. The aim of this theoretical study is to quantify the CO(2) emission reduction from electricity generation of a particularly small sized azimuthal tracked PV platform (approximately 1.7 kW(p)|) under real average and ideal radiation conditions. The quantification is based on a simple framework: CO(2) estimation reduction is determined on the assumption that the electricity produced by the azimuthal tracked PV system displaces an equal quantity of electricity generated by the local grid in Romania. The system is designed| modelled and analyzed considering the factors that influence the CO(2) emissions. The analysis results provide an overall view of the azimuthal tracked PV system sustainability potential in a mountain region (case study Brasov-Romania). Compared to local grid the green source of energy avoids greenhouse gas output with the annual energetic gain estimated at 620 kWh/yr results in an annual CO(2) reduction of 249 kg. 12129,2011,3,4,Environmental impacts of the Swiss collection and recovery systems for Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE): A follow-up,While Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) collection and recovery have significantly gained in importance all over Europe in the last 15 years| comprehensive studies assessing the environmental loads and benefits of these systems still are not common. In this paper we present the results of a combined material flow analysis and life cycle assessment study| which aimed to calculate the overall environmental impacts of collection| pre-processing and end-processing for the existing Swiss WEEE collection and recovery systems| as well as of incineration and land filling scenarios| in which the same amount of WEEE is either incinerated in a an MSWI plant or landfilled. According to the calculations based on the material flow data for the year 2009 and a new version of the ecoinvent life cycle inventory database (ecoinvent v2.01)| collection| recovery and disposal result in significantly lower environmental impacts per t of WEEE for midpoint indicators such as global warming or ozone depletion and the endpoint indicator Eco-Indicator '99 points. A comparison between the environmental impacts of the WEEE recovery scenarios 2009 and 2004| both calculated with ecoinvent v2.01 data| shows that the impacts per t of WEEE in 2009 were slightly lower. This appears to be mainly due to the changes in the treatment of plastics (more recycling| less incineration). Compared to the overall environmental impacts of the recovery scenario 2004 obtained with an old version of ecoinvent (ecoinvent v1.1)| the calculation with ecoinvent v2.01 results in an increase of the impacts by about 20%| which is primarily the consequence of a more adequate modeling of several WEEE fractions (e.g. metals| cables or CRT devices). In view of a further increase of the environmental benefits associated with the Swiss WEEE collection and recovery systems| the recovery of geochemically scarce metals should be further investigated| in particular. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12603,2011,2,4,Environmental implications of skeletal micro-density and porosity variation in two scleractinian corals,The correlations between skeletal parameters (bulk density| micro-density and porosity)| coral age and sea surface temperature were assessed along a latitudinal gradient in the zooxanthellate coral Balanophyllia europaea and in the azooxanthellate coral Leptopsammia pruvoti. In both coral species| the variation of bulk density was more influenced by the variation of porosity than of micro-density. With increasing polyp age| B. europaea formed denser and less porous skeletons while L pruvoti showed the opposite trend| becoming less dense and more porous. B. europaea skeletons were generally less porous (more dense) than those of L pruvoti| probably as a consequence of the different habitats colonized by the two species. Increasing temperature had a negative impact on the zooxanthellate species| leading to an increase of porosity. In contrast| micro-density increased with temperature in the azooxanthellate species. It is hypothesized that the increase in porosity with increasing temperatures observed in B. europaea could depend on an attenuation of calcification due to an inhibition of the photosynthetic process at elevated temperatures| while the azooxanthellate species appears more resistant to variations of temperature| highlighting possible differences in the sensitivity/tolerance of these two coral species to temperature changes in face of global climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 3294,2011,3,4,Environmental Lessons from China: Finding Promising Policies in Unlikely Places,BACKGROUND: Alongside the major health risks posed by environmental pollution in China are recent achievements on several environmental issues that have affluent Western nations racing to catch up. The country has propelled itself to a position of leadership in clean energy and efficiency| for instance| with important consequences for public health. OBJECTIVES: We comment on China's challenges and recent accomplishments in addressing environmental problems from domestic pollution to global climate change. We compare China's commitment to clean energy technology with that of other leading nations and discuss key achievements in other areas| including vehicle efficiency standards and transportation policy. DISCUSSION: We discuss policy directions that would secure much-needed improvements to environmental quality and health in China| along with actions that could motivate global action on issues of energy conservation and pollution reduction. CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive regulatory and institutional framework for environmental policy is within reach in China but will require addressing major hurdles such as the lack of an independent monitoring mechanism and the need for greater transparency and enforcement in environmental matters. Meanwhile| China can continue to set important examples by investing in renewable energy| improving energy efficiency| and limiting greenhouse gas emissions. 11845,2011,3,3,Environmental life-cycle comparisons of two polychlorinated biphenyl remediation technologies: Incineration and base catalyzed decomposition,Remediation action is critical for the management of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contaminated sites. Dozens of remediation technologies developed internationally could be divided in two general categories incineration and non-incineration. In this paper| life cycle assessment (LCA) was carried out to study the environmental impacts of these two kinds of remediation technologies in selected PCB contaminated sites| where Infrared High Temperature Incineration (IHTI) and Base Catalyzed Decomposition (BCD) were selected as representatives of incineration and non-incineration. A combined midpoint/damage approach was adopted by using SimaPro 7.2 and IMPACTA2002+ to assess the human toxicity| ecotoxicity| climate change impact| and resource consumption from the five subsystems of IHTI and BCD technologies| respectively. It was found that the major environmental impacts through the whole lifecycle arose from energy consumption in both IHTI and BCD processes. For IHTI| primary and secondary combustion subsystem contributes more than 50% of midpoint impacts concerning with carcinogens| respiratory inorganics| respiratory organics| terrestrial ecotoxity| terrestrial acidification/eutrophication and global warming. In BCD process| the rotary kiln reactor subsystem presents the highest contribution to almost all the midpoint impacts including global warming| non-renewable energy| non-carcinogens| terrestrial ecotoxity and respiratory inorganics. In the view of midpoint impacts| the characterization values for global warming from IHTI and BCD were about 432.35 and 38.5 kg CO(2)-eq per ton PCB-containing soils| respectively. LCA results showed that the single score of BCD environmental impact was 1468.97 Pt while IHTI's score is 2785.15 Pt| which indicates BCD potentially has a lower environmental impact than IHTI technology in the PCB contaminated soil remediation process. (C) 2011 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved. 3267,2011,2,4,Environmental metabolomics links genotype to phenotype and predicts genotype abundance in wild plant populations,'The Holy Grail' of plant ecology is to uncover rules that associate species and traits with environmental constraints| community composition and subsequent ecosystem functioning. These aims have been crystallized in recent years within the context of global climate change and environmental pollution| increasing the urgency of the need to predict how vegetation will respond across spatial scales. We investigated whether genetic diversity is associated with the way in which phenotypic plasticity within plant populations is realized and whether this is related to genotype abundance. We used environmental metabolomics to demonstrate biochemical variation between co-occurring genotypes of Carex caryophyllea L. A novel combined metabolomic/functional trait analysis was used to test the functionality of this variation in governing plasticity to variation in edaphic conditions| with particular reference tometabolic pathways that play important roles in growth-related traits. We show that genetic diversity within a wild C. caryophyllea population relates to differences in metabolic composition and functional traits in response to soil nutrient variation| influencing genotype abundance within a community. Our findings highlight the vital role genetic diversity plays within a population in facilitating plant phenotypic plasticity and the potential usefulness of environmental metabolomics to future ecological studies. 11969,2011,3,2,Environmental Potential Applications of Alkali Metal exchanged Zeolite X in Carbon Dioxide Adsorption,The increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentration| mainly caused by the Thermal Power Stations| Industrial sector and fossil fuel combustion| has led to consequences of global warming. Zeolitic adsorption processes is more promising| energy saving and viable method for CO(2) removal in Comparison to other technologies. In order to examine the behavior and to establish the trends in carbon dioxide sorption| NaX zeolite (Si/Al = 1.15) and it's the modified forms with identical degree (55.5 +/- 2.5) of exchange by K+| Rb+ and Cs+ cations have been selected.| The samples were characterized by powder XRD| Low temperature nitrogen adsorption/desorption measurements| chemical analysis and also for the intermediate electronegativity and the partial charges on the atoms using Sanderson's electronegativity equalization principle. The isotherms of carbon dioxide using these NaX| NaKX| NaRbX and NaCsX samples were measured at an interval of 30 K in the temperature range of 273 to 363 K up to 600 Torr. The uptake of CO(2) was found to depend on both| the size of the nonframework cation and the temperature at which the isotherms were measured. The cations with lower charge density will have lower extent of electrostatic interaction with the sorbate molecules. Since CO(2) has more linear quadrupole moment| it interacts mainly with the extra-framework cations and framework oxygen. The carbon dioxide sorption data satisfactorily represented by Langmuir and also analyzed for the chemical affinity. The Isosteric heat (q(st)) of NaX for the coverage of 20 molecules per unit cell is nearly equal to 26 kJ| mol(-1). The NaX and NaKX comparatively show a flat heat profile with the increasing amount sorbed than those of NaRbX and NaCsX indicating a balance between the strength of energetic heterogeneity of sorbate-sorbent interactions and sorbate-sorbate interactions. 11741,2011,3,4,Environmental product development: replacement of an epoxy-based coating by a polyester-based coating,The purpose of this study is to document and assess the environmental impacts associated with two competing powder coating solutions using current life cycle assessment (LCA) methods and available data and to check whether there is a conflict between environmental performance and occupational health issues. Data have been gathered for the manufacture and application of the two different powder coatings. The case study is a cradle-to-gate study| using retrospective data. The data were entered into the SimaPro 7.2.4 LCA software and environmental impacts calculated using IPPC 2007| CML-IA and USEtox (TM) classification and characterisation methods. The USEtox methods were used both with and without interim factors| and this distinction was very important for the ranking of the alternatives. The study was performed using the functional unit: Surface treatment of the "foot-cross" of one H05 5300 office chair for 15 years (the lifetime of the chair)| where the reference flow was 172 g of powder coating to fulfil this function. Literature about the known health effects associated with chemicals in the two solutions was also consulted in order to assess whether the main concerns driving the desire to replace the epoxy-based powder coating have been addressed and improved through using the polyester-based alternative. The life cycle environmental impacts evaluated show improvements in the potential environmental impacts analysed due to the substitute polyester-based coating. The results for human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity potentials are dependent on the inclusion of interim characterisation factors. Literature sources provide evidence of irritation and sensitisation effects associated with epoxy resin| but not for the polyester resin alternative. Substitution of the epoxy-based coating by a polyester-based alternative reduces the occupational health risk for workers coming into contact with the powder coating. The results show that this substitution has also led to reduced potential environmental impacts: global warming| ozone depletion| photochemical oxidant creation| acidification| eutrophication| human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity| when the interim factors for some metals and organics are included in the USEtox calculations. 12794,2011,3,3,Environmental Property Modeling of Perfluorodecalin and its Implications for Environmental Fate and Hazards,In a variety of medical and industrial uses| small amounts of perfluorodecalin (C(10)F(18)) may have been released into the environment. However| it may significantly contribute to the global warming due to its highly radiative efficiency and global warming potential (GWP). Using the chemical similarity approach| this article aimed at calculating the fate properties and discussing the environmental implications of the perfluorinated compound for the purpose of mitigating its emissions. The environmental fate properties of perfluorodecalin| including octanol-water partition coefficient| water solubility and Henry's law constant| were first estimated in the present study. These predicted values were further compared with those of other chemically similar compounds such as naphthalene| decalin and decane. From the computational findings| perfluorodecalin| which has exceptionally low solubility in water and high vaporization from the water bodies| tends to be hydrophobic and partitioned into organic matter| suggesting that it will sink into the atmosphere. Also addressed in the paper was a possible proposal for forming trifluoroacetic acid in the atmosphere by the ionized photolysis of perfluorodecalin. 12336,2011,3,4,Environmental trade-offs in nitrogen oxide removal from ship engine exhausts,The emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) from ship engines constitute an increasing part of the total global emissions of NO(x) while the share from land-based sources is decreasing. In the coming years| new regulations will set limits to emissions in specific areas and various technical countermeasures will be developed and implemented. However| when taking technical measures against emissions on a local scale| there is always a risk of inducing an increase in the total environmental impact related to the technology used| owing to increased energy use and emissions in other places. In the present study| an investigation of the difference in environmental impact from passenger transport vessels with and without catalytic NO(x) emission purification was performed in a life cycle assessment. The production and transport of chemicals used in the catalyst are included in the study. The study shows that the use of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) gives a considerable decrease in the environmental impact compared with using a diesel engine without a catalyst. The transport of urea solution over a 500 km distance makes a very small contribution to the total environmental impact. The global warming potential is the only impact category for which values are increased when including the urea production and transport. When looking at the contribution from urea to the total impact from the SCR process| the increase is less than 10 per cent for most impact categories. 12214,2011,5,3,Eocene global warming events driven by ventilation of oceanic dissolved organic carbon,'Hyperthermals' are intervals of rapid| pronounced global warming known from six episodes within the Palaeocene and Eocene epochs (similar to 65-34 million years (Myr) ago)(1-13). The most extreme hyperthermal was the 170 thousand year (kyr) interval(2) of 5-7 degrees C global warming(3) during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM| 56 Myr ago). The PETM is widely attributed to massive release of greenhouse gases from buried sedimentary carbon reservoirs(1|3|6|11|14-17)| and other| comparatively modest| hyperthermals have also been linked to the release of sedimentary carbon(3|6|11|16|17). Here we show| using new 2.4-Myr-long Eocene deep ocean records| that the comparatively modest hyperthermals are much more numerous than previously documented| paced by the eccentricity of Earth's orbit and have shorter durations (40 kyr) and more rapid recovery phases than the PETM. These findings point to the operation of fundamentally different forcing and feedback mechanisms than for the PETM| involving redistribution of carbon among Earth's readily exchangeable surface reservoirs rather than carbon exhumation from| and subsequent burial back into| the sedimentary reservoir. Specifically| we interpret our records to indicate repeated| large-scale releases of dissolved organic carbon (at least 1|600 giga-tonnes) from the ocean by ventilation (strengthened oxidation) of the ocean interior. The rapid recovery of the carbon cycle following each Eocene hyperthermal strongly suggests that carbon was re-sequestered by the ocean| rather than the much slower process of silicate rock weathering proposed for the PETM(1|3). Our findings suggest that these pronounced climate warming events were driven not by repeated releases of carbon from buried sedimentary sources(3|6|11|16|17)| but| rather| by patterns of surficial carbon redistribution familiar from younger intervals of Earth history. 12098,2011,2,3,Equilibrium of vegetation and climate at the European rear edge. A reference for climate change planning in mountainous Mediterranean regions,Mediterranean mountains harbour some of Europe's highest floristic richness. This is accounted for largely by the mesoclimatic variety in these areas| along with the co-occurrence of a small area of Eurosiberian| Boreal and Mediterranean species| and those of Tertiary Subtropical origin. Throughout the twenty-first century| we are likely to witness a climate change-related modification of the biogeographic scenario in these mountains| and there is therefore a need for accurate climate regionalisations to serve as a reference of the abundance and distribution of species and communities| particularly those of a relictic nature. This paper presents an objective mapping method focussing on climate regions in a mountain range. The procedure was tested in the Cordillera Central Mountains of the Iberian Peninsula| in the western Mediterranean| one of the ranges occupying the largest area of the Mediterranean Basin. This regionalisation is based upon multivariate analyses and upon detailed cartography employing 27 climatic variables. We used spatial interpolation of data based on geographic information. We detected high climatic diversity in the mountain range studied. We identified 13 climatic regions| all of which form a varying mosaic throughout the annual temperature and rainfall cycle. This heterogeneity results from two geographically opposed gradients. The first one is the Mediterranean-Euro-Siberian variation of the mountain range. The second gradient involves the degree of oceanicity| which is negatively related to distance from the Atlantic Ocean. The existing correlation between the climatic regions detected and the flora existing therein enables the results to be situated within the projected trends of global warming| and their biogeographic and ecological consequences to be analysed. 3444,2011,4,4,ERNST JULIUS OPIK| SOLAR VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE,This paper covers some aspects of the life and work of the Estonian astronomer Ernst Opik (1893-1985)| who contributed to a very wide range of astronomical disciplines| and whose publications span more than 70 years. He worked in Estonia| the Soviet Union| the United States| Germany and Northern Ireland. His visions on the role of solar variability in global climate change are emphasized| and his opinions on modelling in science are explained| in addition to his views about scientific refereeing and publishing. 12345,2011,2,4,Estimating the adaptive potential of critical thermal limits: methodological problems and evolutionary implications,P>1. Current studies indicate that estimates of thermal tolerance limits in ectotherms depend on the experimental protocol used| with slower and presumably more ecologically relevant rates of warming negatively affecting the upper thermal limits (CT(max)). Recent empirical evidence also gives credence to earlier speculations suggesting that estimates of heritability could drop with slower heating rates. 2. Using published data from the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster| we show that empirical patterns can be explained if flies' physical condition decreases with experimental time in thermal tolerance assays. This problem could even overshadow potential benefits of thermal acclimation| also suggesting that a drop in CT(max) with slower heating rates does not necessarily rule out beneficial acclimatory responses. 3. Numerical results from a simple illustrative model show that no clear conclusions can be obtained on how the phenotypic variance in CT(max) will be affected with different rates of thermal change. Conversely| the genetic variance and estimated heritabilities are expected to drop with slower heating rates| hence ramping rates in experiments aiming to study the evolutionary potential of thermal tolerance to respond to global warming should be as fast as possible (within the range in which measurement accuracy and physical condition are not affected). 4. Measurements under ecologically realistic warming rates should also consider the impact of other physiological and behavioural strategies that might partly compensate the negative effects of slow heating rates. However| there are situations in which slow heating rates closely mimic natural conditions| as those encountered by some aquatic ectotherms. These heating rates may be an issue of major concern in these species| given its negative impact on CT(max) and its adaptive potential. 12079,2011,3,3,Estimating the climate and air quality benefits of aviation fuel and emissions reductions,In this study we consider the implications of our current understanding of aviation climate impacts as it relates to the ratio of non-CO(2) to CO(2) effects from aviation. We take as inputs recent estimates from the literature of the magnitude of the component aviation impacts and associated uncertainties. We then employ a simplified probabilistic impulse response function model for the climate and a range of damage functions to estimate the ratio of non-CO(2) to CO(2) impacts of aviation for a range of different metrics| scientific assumptions| future background emissions scenarios| economic growth scenarios| and discount rates. We take cost-benefit analysis as our primary context and thus focus on integral metrics that can be related to damages: the global warming potential| the time-integrated change in surface temperature| and the net present value of damages. We also present results based on an endpoint metric| the global temperature change potential. These latter results would be more appropriate for use in a cost-effectiveness framework (e.g.| with a well-defined policy target for the anthropogenic change in surface temperature at a specified time in the future). We find that the parameter that most influences the ratio of non-CO(2) to CO(2) impacts of aviation is the discount rate| or analogously the time window used for physical metrics; both are expressions of the relative importance of long-lived versus short-lived impacts. Second to this is the influence of the radiative forcing values that are assumed for aviation-induced cloudiness effects. Given the large uncertainties in short-lived effects from aviation| and the dominating influence of discounting or time-windowing| we find that the choice of metric is relatively less influential. We express the ratios of non-CO(2) to CO(2) impacts on a per unit fuel burn basis so that they can be multiplied by a social cost of carbon to estimate the additional benefits of fuel burn reductions from aviation beyond those associated with CO(2) alone (all else being equal). For a non-CO(2) to CO(2) ratio based on economic damage costs| we find a central value of 1.8 at a 3% discount rate| with a range from 0.6 to 2.5 for the upper and lower bounds of scientific and scenario-based uncertainty. Since estimating the co-benefits in this way is an important requirement for cost-benefit analyses| we also provide estimates of the air quality benefits of aviation fuel burn reduction in a similar format. We find the marginal damage costs of aircraft emissions below 3000 feet to be of similar magnitude to the climate costs on a per unit fuel burn basis| or an order of magnitude smaller on a per flight basis since we take no account of the air quality impacts of emissions above 3000 feet where the majority of fuel is consumed for the fleet. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11884,2011,4,4,Estimating the Ice Crystal Enhancement Factor in the Tropics,The ice crystal enhancement (IE) factor| defined as the ratio of the ice crystal to ice nuclei (IN) number concentrations for any particular cloud condition| is needed to quantify the contribution of changes in IN to global warming. However| the ensemble characteristics of IE are still unclear. In this paper| a representation of the IE factor is incorporated into a three-ice-category microphysical scheme for use in long-term cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations. Model results are compared with remote sensing observations| which suggest that| absent a physically based consideration of how IE comes about| the IE factor in tropical clouds is about 10 3 times larger than that in midlatitudinal ones. This significant difference in IE between the tropics and middle latitudes is consistent with the observation of stronger entrainment and detrainment in the tropics. In addition| the difference also suggests that cloud microphysical parameterizations depend on spatial resolution (or subgrid turbulence parameterizations within CRMs). 11840,2011,2,4,Estimation and trend detection of water storage at Nam Co Lake| central Tibetan Plateau,Nam Co Lake is the highest lake in the central Tibetan Plateau| and existing research on water storage and water level variations are lacking. This paper provides a method for estimating the lake water storage based on historical meteorological records from 1976 to 2009| remote sensing images scattered in this period| in situ bathymetric survey| and GIS techniques| and presents a comprehensive 34-year analysis of intra-annual and inter-annual variations of Nam Co Lake water storage. The multi-year mean water storage of Nam Co Lake is 842.36 x 10(8) m(3)| with the maximum water depth of about 98 m. During 1976-2009| the lake water storage increased from 786.06 x 10(8) m(3) to 870.30 x 10(8) m(3)| with a tendency value of 2.67 x 10(8) m(3)/a; the lake area enlarged from 1927.48 km(2) to 2015.12 km(2)| with a tendency value of 2.71 km(2)/a. The lake area fluctuations annually| increasing from April of each year until late September and early October| then decreasing until March of the next year. Climate change has a significant impact on the water storage variation of the lake. A general pattern of warming temperature is evident with the regional annual mean air temperature increasing significantly by 0.404 degrees C/10 a. Preliminary analysis indicates that the enlarging status of Nam Co Lake water storage is closely related to increasing of precipitation and stream runoff especially coming from the input of glacial meltwater. By combining this data with other research| it can be presented that under the trend of global warming| on Tibetan Plateau| the inland lakes which depend on the rainfall and river supply in the basin are shrinking| while the lakes which depend on glacial meltwater supply are enlarging. Climate change is an important factor promoting the lake variation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11976,2011,2,4,Estimation of physical efficiency of hail protection accounting for changes in hail climatology,Results are considered of study of climate global warming effects on hail climatology and on technique of estimation of physical efficiency of hail protection taking account of the region hail danger trend. It is found that during last 30 years| occurrence frequency of hail and the number of heavy hailstorms in the mountainous areas of the Northern Caucasus decreased| on average| by a factor of 1.5-2| and in the foothill areas increased by 15-20%. It is shown that efficiency of hail protection works should be estimated taking into account the hail danger trend for each region. 11772,2011,2,4,Estimation of potential changes in cereals production under climate change scenarios,This survey proposed a new methodology - iGAEZ (improved GAEZ)| developed based on the GAEZ (Global Agro-Ecological Zones) model| capable of simulating crop yields on a global scale for wheat| potato| cassava| soybean| rice| sweet potato| maize| green beans. iGAEZ determines the optimum criteria of crop parameter of growth cycles to ensure best realistic crop yield combinations under comprehensive consideration of climate and crop condition. Global-scale crop yields were calculated using iGAEZ model for the period of 1990-1999. Through comparing simulated yields and FAO statistics| iGAEZ has demonstrated a very good ability to reproduce realistic crop yields on a global scale. We also predicted the impact of global warming on crop yields from the 1990s to 2090s by projecting five GCM outputs for AR4 under SRES A1B scenarios. According to the result| temperature rise will make many cultivated areas (eastern part of USA| India| eastern China| Africa) less productive. On the other hand| the regions with cold weather under current climate condition (Canada| northern Europe| northeastern China) become suitable for crop productivity under future climate scenario. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 12781,2011,4,4,Estimation of probable contribution of global warming to the genesis of abnormally hot summers in the European part of Russia,Temperature records for the Russian territory in summer 2010 are presented. The potential role that the current global warming plays in the formation of abnormally hot summers in the European part of Russia is discussed. Although the main reason for the extreme heat wave in 2010 was a quasi-stationary anticyclone blocking westerlies| global warming could also contribute to the observed temperature extremums adversely affecting the biota. 12876,2011,2,4,ETIOLOGY AND EPIDEMIOLOGY OF TICK-BORNE ENCEPHALITIS. A REVIEW,This article presents a review of the literature on tick-borne encephalitis virus and epidemiology of tick-borne encephalitis. Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) is a member of the Flaviviridae family. The most important antigen of TBEV is the envelope protein E| which induces protective immunity| functions as the ligand to the cell receptors and is responsible for the virulence of TBEV. TBEV consists of three subtypes: the European| Far Eastern and Siberian. Despite very similar antigen structure the virulence of different subtypes of TBEV differs. The main vector of TBEV are Ixodes spp. ticks. Ticks can be infected by viremic| non-viremic| transovarial and transstadial tarnsmission. Non-viremic transmission of TBEV is the most important for the maintenance and spreading of TBEV in natural foci. 0.1-26.6% of ticks are infected with TBEV within endemic areas. More than one hundred animal species| including mammals| birds and reptiles| can serve as hosts of the ticks| which are divided into reservoir| indicator and accidental hosts. Small rodents are the main reservoir of TBEV. TBEV prevalence in small rodents is in a range from 15 to 47.9%. Birds are not important as reservoir hosts| but can spread the virus into new areas. The incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Europe has increased 4 times over the last three decades. The reasons of the increase in incidence of TBE are complex and associated with expanding vector and host populations| influenced by global warming. Other reasons are social| economical and associated with human activities. Increased awareness of tick-borne diseases| improved diagnostics and epidemiological surveillance also influence the increasing number of TBE cases. 11866,2011,3,4,EUE (energy use efficiency) of cropping systems for a sustainable agriculture,Energy efficiency of agriculture needs improvement to reduce the dependency on non-renewable energy sources. We estimated the energy flows of a wheat-maize-soybean-maize rotation of three different cropping systems: (i) low-input integrated farming (LI)| (ii) integrated farming following European Regulations (IFS)| and (iii) conventional farming (CONV). Balancing N fertilization with actual crop requirements and adopting minimum tillage proved the most efficient techniques to reduce energy inputs| contributing 64.7% and 11.2% respectively to the total reduction. Large differences among crops in energy efficiency (maize: 2.2 MJ kg(-1) grain; wheat: 2.6 MJ kg(-1) grain; soybean: 4.1 MJ kg(-1) grain) suggest that crop rotation and crop management can be equally important in determining cropping system energy efficiency. Integrated farming techniques improved energy efficiency by reducing energy inputs without affecting energy outputs. Compared with CONV| energy use efficiency increased 31.4% and 32.7% in IFS and LI| respectively| while obtaining similar net energy values. Including SOM evolution in the energy analysis greatly enhanced the energy performance of IFS and| even more dramatically. LI compared to CONV. Improved energy efficiency suggests the adoption of alternative farming systems to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. However| a thorough evaluation should include net global warming potential assessment. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11957,2011,4,3,European cold winter 2009-2010: How unusual in the instrumental record and how reproducible in the ARPEGE-Climat model?,Boreal winter 2009-2010 made headlines for cold anomalies in many countries of the northern mid-latitudes. Northern Europe was severely hit by this harsh winter in line with a record persistence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the present study| we first provide a wider perspective on how unusual this winter was by using the recent 20th Century Reanalysis. A weather regime analysis shows that the frequency of the negative NAO was unprecedented since winter 1939-1940| which is then used as a dynamical analog of winter 2009-2010 to demonstrate that the latter might have been much colder without the background global warming observed during the twentieth century. We then use an original nudging technique in ensembles of global atmospheric simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) and radiative forcings to highlight the relevance of the stratosphere for understanding if not predicting such anomalous winter seasons. Our results demonstrate that an improved representation of the lower stratosphere is necessary to reproduce not only the seasonal mean negative NAO signal| but also its intraseasonal distribution and the corresponding increased probability of cold waves over northern Europe. Citation: Ouzeau| G.| J. Cattiaux| H. Douville| A. Ribes| and D. Saint-Martin (2011)| European cold winter 20092010: How unusual in the instrumental record and how reproducible in the ARPEGE-Climat model?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L11706| doi: 10.1029/2011GL047667. 11903,2011,3,4,Evaluating industrial symbiosis and algae cultivation from a life cycle perspective,A comparative life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted on 20 scenarios of microalgae cultivation. These scenarios examined the utilization of nutrients and CO(2) from synthetic sources and waste streams as well as the materials used to construct a photobioreactor (PBR). A 0.2-m(3) closed PBR of Chlorella vulgaris at 30%-oil content by weight with the productivity of 25 g/m(2) x day was used as a case study. Results of the study show that the utilization of resources from waste streams mainly avoided global warming potential (GWP) and eutrophication impacts. Impacts from the production of material used to construct the PBR dominate total impacts in acidification and ozone depletion categories| even over longer PBR lifetimes; thus| the choice of PBR construction materials is important. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12865,2011,2,3,Evaluating sources of uncertainty in modelling the impact of probabilistic climate change on sub-arctic palsa mires,We present an analysis of different sources of impact model uncertainty and combine this with probabilistic projections of climate change. Climatic envelope models describing the spatial distribution of palsa mires (mire complexes with permafrost peat hummocks) in northern Fennoscandia were calibrated for three baseline periods| eight state-of-the-art modelling techniques and 25 versions sampling the parameter uncertainty of each technique - a total of 600 models. The sensitivity of these models to changes in temperature and precipitation was analysed to construct impact response surfaces. These were used to assess the behaviour of models when extrapolated into changed climate conditions| so that new criteria| in addition to conventional model evaluation statistics| could be defined for determining model reliability. Impact response surfaces were also combined with climate change projections to estimate the risk of areas suitable for palsas disappearing during the 21st century. Structural differences in impact models appeared to be a major source of uncertainty| with 69% of the models giving implausible projections. Generalized additive modelling (GAM) was judged to be the most reliable technique for model extrapolation. Using GAM| it was estimated as very likely (>90% probability) that the area suitable for palsas is reduced to less than half the baseline area by the period 2030-2049 and as likely (>66% probability) that the entire area becomes unsuitable by 2080-2099 (A1B emission scenario). The risk of total loss of palsa area was reduced for a mitigation scenario under which global warming was constrained to below 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial climate| although it too implied a considerable reduction in area suitable for palsas. 12252,2011,2,4,Evaluating the economic effects of climate change on the European sardine fishery,This study evaluates the economic effects of climate change on one of the most relevant fisheries of the Iberian Peninsula| the European sardine fishery; a fishing ground that is particularly sensitive to environmental impacts. For this| the sea surface temperature is introduced into the problem as an additional variable. This variable allows for the gathering of climate change evidence and its repercussions on the oceans and| consequently| on the marine life and ecosystems. Various plausible scenarios are posed with respect to the trends involving the sea surface temperature. The results show that if the trend of rising surface temperatures continues in the Iberian-Atlantic fishing grounds| both the sardine biomass and the expected profits will noticeably decrease. The biomass and profits will further decrease with greater intensity if the immediate effects of global warming on sea surface temperature become more significant. On the other hand| in a palliation of global warming scenario| both variables decrease to a lesser degree. 12416,2011,2,3,Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine,The runoff regime of glacierized headwater catchments in the Alps is essentially characterized by snow and ice melt. High Alpine drainage basins influence distant downstream catchments of the Rhine River basin. In particular| during the summer months| low-flow conditions are probable with strongly reduced snow and ice melt under climate change conditions. This study attempts to quantify present and future contributions from snow and ice melt to summer runoff at different spatial scales. For the small Silvretta catchment (103 km(2)) in the Swiss Alps| with a glacierization of 7%| the HBV model and the glacio-hydrological model GERM are applied for calculating future runoff based on different regional climate scenarios. We evaluate the importance of snow and ice melt in the runoff regime. Comparison of the models indicates that the HBV model strongly overestimates the future contribution of glacier melt to runoff| as glaciers are considered as static components. Furthermore| we provide estimates of the current meltwater contribution of glaciers for several catchments downstream on the River Rhine during the month of August. Snow and ice melt processes have a significant direct impact on summer runoff| not only for high mountain catchments| but also for large transboundary basins. A future shift in the hydrological regime and the disappearance of glaciers might favour low-flow conditions during summer along the Rhine. 12379,2011,3,4,Evaluating the environmental impacts of an urban wetland park based on emergy accounting and life cycle assessment: A case study in Beijing,In this paper| emergy accounting (EA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) methods are employed to investigate a typical urban wetland park| the Green Lake Urban Wetland Park (GLUWP) of Beijing| in terms of its environmental and capital inputs| ecosystem services and organic matter yields| environmental support| and sustainability. The LCA method is also used to obtain a quantitative estimation of the environmental impact of discharges during the entire life cycle of the GLUWP. Various emergy-based indices| such as emergy yield ratio (EYR)| environmental load ratio (ELR)| emergy sustainability index (ESI)| net economic benefit (Np)| and environmental impacts of process-based LCA| including global warming potential (GWP)| eutrophication (EU)| nonrenewable resource depletion (RU)| energy consumption (EN)| acidification potential (AP)| photochemical oxidant creation potential (POCP)| particulate matter (PM) and wastes (W)| are calculated. The results show that the GLUWP has higher proportions of renewable resource input| less pressure on the environment| more environmental support and better ecological and economic benefits| which can be considered as an environment-friendly and long-term sustainable ecological practice| compared with another constructed wetland in Beijing. Meanwhile| the dominant environmental impact is induced by POCP with the construction phase contributing the most on the entire life cycle. It is expected that increasing green area| extensively using environment-friendly materials| optimizing construction techniques and reducing power consumption can promote the sustainability of the GLUWP. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11717,2011,5,4,Evaluating the use of weathering indices for determining mean annual precipitation in the ancient stratigraphic record,Different quantitative methods have been developed to determine paleo-rainfall using paleosols. Of particular interest are methods that use bulk geochemistry to calculate a weathering index and| from that| mean annual precipitation. Twenty-three paleosols that formed during a time of significant climate change-the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)-were analyzed to evaluate the relative merits of two geochemical proxies that have been developed for estimating paleoprecipitation: one depends on the chemical index of alteration without potash (CIA-K) and the other uses the CALMAG weathering index| which depends on CaO and MgO. The paleosols are located in the Paleogene Fort Union and Willwood formations in the Bighorn Basin| WY. Morphologic differences among the paleosols indicate that they formed under varied soil moisture conditions. A morphology index was developed from pedogenic features that are sensitive to soil drainage| and thus to rainfall| to assess that variability. Quantitative mean annual precipitation (MAP) values were calculated for each paleosol using the CIA-K index and the CALMAG index| which was developed specifically for Vertisols. Those results were compared to the morphology index for 23 paleosols. The results indicate that increases and decreases in MAP calculated from both methods correlate relatively well to changes in the soil morphology index; however| the results from the CALMAG weathering index show a stronger correlation. The results suggest that the CALMAG proxy provides a more robust MAP estimate for Vertisols. In addition to comparing MAP estimates to the soil morphology index| we compared the MAP values to paleorainfall estimates determined from paleofloras at the same stratigraphic levels as three of the paleosols. That comparison confirms that the CALMAG method is reliable for reconstructing MAP from ancient Vertisols. The results also show that| in the Bighorn Basin| Vertisols with a B horizon <1 m thick should not be used to determine MAP. Thinner paleosols have had less time for weathering and may not have cation distributions representative of precipitation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11655,2011,2,4,Evaluation of an improved strain of Porphyra yezoensis Ueda (Bangiales| Rhodophyta) with high-temperature tolerance,the red algae Porphyra yezoensis has high commercial and nutritional value; however| its cultivation and product quality are jeopardized by global warming. Screening of high-temperature-tolerant strains would greatly reduce cultivation risks and benefit the Porphyra industry. Single somatic cells isolated enzymatically from the wildtype (WT) blades irradiated by (60)Co-gamma rays were screened at 25 degrees C; one strain| T-17| displayed significant high-temperature resistance. Further culture studies showed that conchospore germlings of T-17 showed 76.2% survival at 23 degrees C and 65.7% survival at 24 degrees C| while the WT conchospore germlings survived at significantly lower percentages of 16.9% and 11.5%| respectively| over a period of 16 days. Furthermore| T-17 conchospore germlings divided at higher percentages of 100% at both 23 and 24 degrees C compared to the WT conchospores with 99.8% and 81.8%| respectively. When the 50-day-old F(1) gametophytic blades were transferred from the optimal temperature of 18 degrees C to high temperatures of 23 and 24 degrees C| the T-17 blades sustained growth over a 45-day period without rot| and their mean lengths increased by 20 and 4.2 times| respectively. The mean lengths of WT blades only increased by a factor of 0.6 and 0.4 times and were severely decayed after being cultured for 15 days at high temperatures. The mean wet weights of T-17 blades increased by 418.9 and 195.3 times| but only 7.8 and 4.6 times in WT at 23 and 24 degrees C| respectively. These results indicate that T-17 is superior to WT in growth and high-temperature tolerance| which may offer a new cultivar for the nori industry as a high-temperature-resistant strain to counteract the effects of global warming. 12337,2011,3,4,Evaluation of Breakdown Characteristics of CO(2) Gas for Non-standard Lightning Impulse Waveforms - Breakdown Characteristics under Single-frequency Oscillation Waveforms of 1.3 MHz to 4.0 MHz,SF(6) gas| an insulation medium used for gas insulated switchgear (GIS)| has a high global warming potential| hence the search for an effective alternative means from the environmental perspective. One of the alternative candidates is CO(2) gas| which has a lower global warming potential. In order to use this CO(2) gas for actual GIS| the insulation specification must be rationalized by lowering the lightning impulse withstand voltage because the dielectric strength of CO(2) gas is lower than that of SF(6) gas. To lower the lightning impulse withstand voltage of GIS while maintaining the high reliability of its insulation performance| it is important to define in an organized way the insulation characteristics for non-standard lightning impulse voltage waveforms (non-standard-LIWs) that represent actual surge waveforms in the field and compare them with the characteristics for the standard lightning impulse waveform (standard-LIW) quantitatively. In this paper| with single-frequency oscillations as typical examples of non-standard-LIWs| the insulation characteristics for the CO(2) gas gap were experimentally obtained while changing the frequency and damping rate. Consequently| even if the frequency and damping rate were changed| the dielectric breakdown voltage varied little| consistently remaining higher than that with standard-LIW at a level of 1.08 to 1.17 times. Accordingly| it was found that| for GIS using CO(2) gas| the insulation specification could be rationalized by approximately 10% by converting non-standard-LIWs to equivalent standard-LIWs. In addition| the influence of gas pressure and gap length was examined and it emerged that the results obtained under basic experimental conditions were likely to be applicable to the conditions close to actual GIS conditions. 12338,2011,3,4,Evaluation of Breakdown Characteristics of CO(2) Gas for Non-standard Lightning Impulse Waveforms - Breakdown Characteristics under Single-Frequency Oscillation Waveforms of 5.3 MHz to 20.0 MHz,SF(6) gas| an insulation medium used for gas insulated switchgear (GIS)| has a high global warming potential| hence the search for an effective alternative means from the environmental perspective. The authors are focusing on CO(2) gas| which has a lower global warming potential (GWP)| as one of its potential alternatives. In order to use this CO(2) gas for actual GIS| the insulation characteristics for actual overvoltage waveforms generated in the field (called non-standard lightning impulse waveforms) must be obtained. For this purpose| the preceding study experimentally obtained and evaluated the insulation characteristics for relatively low frequency oscillation waveforms in disconnector switching surges generated in the actual field. In this paper| the insulation characteristics of the CO(2) gas gap for higher frequency oscillation waveforms were experimentally obtained while changing the frequency and damping rate. Consequently| in the high frequency area| if the frequency was raised or the damping rate increased| the dielectric breakdown voltage tended to increase| consistently remaining higher than that for standard lightning impulse waveforms at a level of 1.08 to 1.36 times. Accordingly| it was found that the insulation specification could be rationalized by approximately 10% by converting non-standard lightning impulse waveforms to equivalent standard lightning impulse waveforms. In addition| the influence of gas pressure and gap length was examined and it emerged that the results obtained under basic experimental conditions were likely to be applicable to the conditions close to actual GIS conditions. 11657,2011,3,4,Evaluation of Breakdown Characteristics of CO(2) Gas for Non-standard Lightning Impulse Waveforms - Method for Converting Non-standard Lightning Impulse Waveforms into Standard Lightning Impulse Waveforms,SF(6) gas| an insulation medium used for gas insulated switchgear (GIS)| has a high global warming potential| hence an effective alternative means is expected from the environmental perspective. The authors are focusing on CO(2) gas| which has a lower global warming potential| as one of its potential alternatives. To use this CO(2) gas for the actual GIS| the insulation characteristics for overvoltage waveforms generated in the actual fields (non-standard lightning impulse waveforms) must be obtained. For this purpose| the preceding study experimentally obtained and evaluated the insulation characteristics for various non-standard lightning impulse waveforms covering the surge waveforms generated in the actual field. In the present paper| the experimental results accumulated to date were comprehensively handled to conduct a study on the evaluation method of the insulation characteristics of the CO(2) gas gap for non-standard lightning impulse waveforms. Consequently| similarly to the previous study using SF(6) gas| the insulation characteristics could be expressed by one characteristic line using the duration as a parameter. Furthermore| after establishing an evaluation method of the insulation specification for generated waveforms based on the characteristic line and applying it to actual surge waveforms at substations as an example| it emerged that the insulation specification could potentially be reduced by about 10%. 12176,2011,3,4,Evaluation of Breakdown Characteristics of CO(2) Gas for Non-standard Lightning Impulse Waveforms under Non-uniform Electric Field - Breakdown Characteristics for Single-Frequency Oscillation Waveforms,SF(6) gas| an insulation medium used for gas insulated switchgear (GIS)| has a high global warming potential| hence an effective alternative means is expected from the environmental perspective. As one of its potential alternatives| the authors are focusing on CO(2) gas| which has relatively good insulation characteristics among gases with a low environmental impact (natural gases). To use this CO(2) gas for actual GIS| the insulation characteristics for actual overvoltage waveforms generated in the field (known as nonstandard lightning impulse waveforms) must be obtained. The present study| with single-frequency oscillation waveforms as a representative basis| experimentally obtained the insulation characteristics by changing the polarity| frequency| and damping rate of the applied voltage in the non-uniform electric field represented by the presence of metallic particle in the equipment. As a result| the breakdown voltage was lower for the positive polarity under the non-uniform electric field. In this polarity| the breakdown voltage was 1.05 to 1.68 higher than that by standard lightning impulse waveforms even if the frequency and damping rate were changed. These results support the rationalization of insulation for actual surge waveforms under the quasi-uniform electric field. 11658,2011,3,4,Evaluation of Breakdown Characteristics of N(2) Gas for Non-standard Lightning Impulse Waveforms - Breakdown Characteristics under Single-frequency Oscillation Waveforms and with Bias Voltages,SF(6) gas| an insulation medium used for gas insulated switchgear (GIS)| has a high global warming potential| hence the search for an effective alternative is required from an environmental perspective. As one of its potential alternatives| the authors are focusing on N(2) gas| which has relatively good insulation characteristics among natural gases and a low environmental impact. However| to use this N(2) gas for actual GIS| the insulation characteristics for actual overvoltage waveforms generated in the field (non-standard lightning impulse waveforms; non-standard-LIWs) must be obtained. The present study| with single-frequency oscillation waveforms as a representative basis among non-standard LIWs| experimentally obtained the insulation characteristics of an N(2) gas gap by changing the frequency and the damping factor. Consequently| the breakdown voltage (BDV) was lower for the negative polarity under a quasi-uniform electric field| hence the conclusion that it was reasonable to conduct experiments using negative polarity waveforms in order to discuss the dielectric strength. In addition| even if the frequency and damping factor changed| the BDV remained relatively constant| and that is consistently higher than that for the standard lightning impulse waveforms (standard-LIWs) at a level of 1.14 to 1.24 times. As a result| it was also confirmed for GIS using N(2) gas that the insulation specification could be rationalized by about 20% by converting lightning impulse waveforms from non-standard to equivalent standard-LIWs of 1.2/50 mu s. Furthermore| insulation characteristics were obtained under the pattern in which a disconnector switching surges are superposed on residual dc elements generated through the operation of disconnectors (bias voltages). Consequently| the bias voltage had only a minor influence on the insulation characteristics and it emerged that insulation characteristics were likely to be evaluated using a single polarity waveform. 11731,2011,3,4,Evaluation of food waste disposal options by LCC analysis from the perspective of global warming: Jungnang case| South Korea,The costs associated with eight food waste disposal options| dry feeding| wet feeding| composting| anaerobic digestion| co-digestion with sewage sludge| food waste disposer| incineration| and landfilling| were evaluated in the perspective of global warming and energy and/or resource recovery. An expanded system boundary was employed to compare by-products. Life cycle cost was analyzed through the entire disposal process| which included discharge| separate collection| transportation| treatment| and final disposal stages| all of which were included in the system boundary. Costs and benefits were estimated by an avoided impact. Environmental benefits of each system per 1 tonne of food waste management were estimated using carbon prices resulting from CO(2) reduction by avoided impact| as well as the prices of by-products such as animal feed| compost| and electricity. We found that the cost of landfilling was the lowest| followed by co-digestion. The benefits of wet feeding systems were the highest and landfilling the lowest. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12262,2011,3,4,Evaluation of ONU Power Saving Modes for Gigabit-Capable Passive Optical Networks,Energy efficiency has become an increasingly important aspect of designing access networks| due to both increased concerns for global warming and increased network costs related to energy consumption. Comparing access| metro| and core| the access constitutes a substantial part of the per subscriber network energy consumption and is regarded as the bottleneck for increased network energy efficiency. One of the main opportunities for reducing network energy consumption lies in efficiency improvements of the customer premises equipment. Access networks in general are designed for low utilization while supporting high peak access rates. The combination of large contribution to overall network power consumption and low utilization implies large potential for CPE power saving modes where functionality is powered off during periods of idleness.
3352,2011,2,4,Evaluation of precipitation-vegetation interaction on a climate-sensitive landscape using vegetation indices,Many places in the world show spectacular landscape changes caused by increasingly rapid alterations of natural phenomena observed in the last 3 to 4 decades. More and more studies reveal the consequences of global climate change strengthened by anthropogenic effects. The cause of rapid changes in the landscape is often due to the alteration of the natural water-cycle. Using moderate resolution imaging spectoradiometer vegetation indices| this study analyzed the relationship between biomass and precipitation| being one of the most important climate elements| over a Hungarian landscape that has been highly affected by the process of groundwater-table sinking in the last decades. Research proved that the reasons for this decrease are mainly the precipitation shortage due to climate change and to a much smaller extent| anthropogenic effects. In the forests of the study area| the annual distribution of precipitation proved to be an important factor| and the biomass produced by forests is influenced by the precipitation over a shorter interval-compared to less sensitive landscapes. Under increasing aridification| further degradation of vegetation can be expected as has already been observed during drier periods in the case of tree species with high water demand. (C) 2011 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). [DOI: 10.1117/1.3576115] 12804,2011,3,3,Evaluation of RothC model using four Long Term Fertilizer Experiments in black soils| India,Carbon content in soils changes depending on the land use system| type of management practice and time. There is an increasing concern about the soil quality vis-a-vis organic carbon content in soils due to global warming and enhanced CO(2) concentration in the atmosphere. This has led to estimate carbon stock in soils at global and regional levels. The objective of the present study was to evaluate RothC model to estimate total organic carbon (TOC) changes under four long term fertilizer experimental sites representing sub-humid moist (Sarol and Nabibagh)| sub-humid dry (Panjri) and semi-arid (Teligi) climate in India. The plant carbon input rate was calibrated using organic carbon and other soil parameters using RothC. The results showed that RothC could simulate changes in TOC in two contrasting eco-sites for surface soil layers. The root mean square error (RMSE) considered as modelling error ranged from 11.50 to 15.01| 4.70 to 11.60| 2.14 to 6.52 and 1.45 to 13.74 in the surface layers of Sarol| Nabibagh| Panjri| and Teligi sites| respectively. The simulation biases expressed by M (relative error) by Student't' value for all the treatments at these sites were non-significant with two exceptions. Observed trends in TOC consist of an increase for all the four treatments in the sub-humid site of Sarol and Nabibagh; while manures alone or in combination increase TOC appreciably in Teligi and Panjri. TOC remained| however| almost similar over years for the control (no fertilizer or manure) and NPK treatments in all the four sites. Analysis of RothC output data showed that this model could be used as a tool to arrive at different threshold values of rainfall to influence decomposition rate modifier and thus to find out rate of organic carbon sequestration in various bioclimatic systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12478,2011,2,4,EVALUATION OF THE THERMAL CONVECTION INFLUENCE IN ATMOSPHERE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLIMATE CHANGES,The studies of the long-term trends in radiation and convection fluxes| cloudiness and temperature have great importance for the investigations of the climate changes. The main problems of the thermal radiation and convection can be also linked to the influence of the gases on the evolution of global warming. The main element of the system| permitting the evaluation of the thermal and dynamic aspects and its dynamic| is the intensity of the heat exchange. In order to analyse this problem| a model needs to consider: the convection| the radiation and the heat exchange in the atmosphere. The objective is to establish a correlation between the components| the thermal source and the equilibrium of the system. Based on a proposed model| the paper considers some aspects regarding the problems of the thermal convection in the troposphere. The present work tries to analyse some particularities of the convection in the troposphere establishing the variation of the temperature| the turbulence and the speed of the air streams influenced by general and local physical properties of the air. The solutions have to take into account more complex situations in the atmosphere. Finally| the goal of the model is to bring a contribution to the questions on the climate changes. 12875,2011,3,4,Evaluation of Variables Affecting Sustainable Highway Design With (BEST)-S-2-in-Highways System,The Building Environmentally and Economically Sustainable Transportation-Infrastructure-Highways ((BBST)-S-2-in-Highways) sustainability rating system was developed to provide a quantitative methodology for rating the benefits of sustainable highway construction. The methodology is grounded in quantitative metrics so that a transparent linkage exists between the project rating and the sustainable practices employed in design and construction. This rating system can be employed by the highway construction industry and agencies to evaluate sustainable practices quantitatively and to incorporate sustainable elements into projects. To illustrate how (BEST)-S-2-in-Highways is employed| 10 alternative designs were evaluated and compared with two reference pavement designs for a pilot project (Baraboo Bypass| Wisconsin). The results of this pilot project evaluation indicate that the use of recycled materials instead of conventional materials in highway construction can improve sustainability considerably: about 27% reduction in global warming potential and energy and water use. Reductions in carbon dioxide emissions and energy and water consumption are largely due to the reduction of the material production phase (e.g.| mining and processing) by substituting existing recycled materials and reducing the thickness of the base layer and the number of rehabilitation events due to longer service life because of superior properties. Use of recycled material resulted in reductions in the life-cycle cost by as much as 30%. Using recycled materials in the surface layer is not the use with the highest value. Using recycled materials in the base course is thus more advantageous and has higher value because larger material quantities are involved in the base course with greater potential for cost savings| as shown in this case study. 3396,2011,2,4,Evergreens favored by higher responsiveness to increased CO(2),Physical CO(2) diffusion from sub-stomatal cavities to the chloroplasts where photosynthesis takes place is an important limitation of photosynthesis largely neglected in research related to global climate change. This limitation is particularly important in leaves with robust structures such as evergreen sclerophylls. In these leaves| photosynthesis is less sensitive to changes in stomatal openness| which is considered to be the primary limitation of photosynthesis. In this review we state that| because of large limitations in internal diffusion in C(3) plants| photosynthesis and the intrinsic efficiency of the use of plant water responds more strongly to elevated levels of CO(2) in leaves with more robust structures. This provides an additional explanation for the current apparent expansion of evergreen sclerophylls in many Earth ecosystems| and adds a new perspective to research of the biological effects of increasing atmospheric CO(2). 12526,2011,2,4,Evidence for Changes to the Northeast Pacific Wave Climate,A large database of deep water wave buoy measurements over a 24-year period is created for four regions comprising the West Coast of the United States. The regional monthly mean significant wave height (MMSWH) is selected as the defining wave climate parameter and averaging multiple data sources within a region is found to significantly reduce data gaps. Two 12-year periods are compared| showing significant temporal variability but high correlation between regions| allowing the further collapse of the data to a northern and a southern region. Correlations between MMSWH records with three global-scale climate indices are investigated and only the North Pacific Index (NPI)| a measure of atmospheric pressure in the Gulf of Alaska| shows strong correlation. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MET) is less correlated and the Pacific Decadal Index (PDO)| which is a measure of ocean surface temperature| provides no significant correlation. A method for displaying multiple correlations is developed that shows the mean of all MMSWH records that occur at unique temporal combinations of two climate indices. The graphics depicting the mean wave height as a function of NPI and MET for the two 12-year periods are shown to be very instructive in establishing why the two periods are so different. On the contrary| the same procedure with PDO substituted for MEI produces uniform distributions with little interpretive value. Century-scale variation in the climate indices is investigated| and significant linear trends are found for NPI and MET| both consistent with causing increases in mean wave energy in these regions. Causal relationships for the observed correlations are discussed| and conclusions are reached indicating that global warming is a likely contributor to observed increases in wave intensity in the North Pacific. 11776,2011,4,4,Evidence for under-reported western European emissions of the potent greenhouse gas HFC-23,Western European emission inventories of the potent greenhouse gas trifluoromethane (HFC-23) are validated at a country level by combining 2-hourly atmospheric in-situ measurements at Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) and Mace Head (Ireland) with Lagrangian transport simulations. HFC-23 has an atmospheric lifetime of similar to 270 yr and a 100-yr global warming potential (GWP) of 14|800 and is unintentionally produced during the manufacture of chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22). For the study region we derive emissions of 144-216 Mg/yr for July 2008-July 2010| which are 60-140% higher than the official emissions gathered from the national reports for the year 2009. The largest discrepancy is found for Italy| where our estimate of 26-56 Mg/yr exceeds the national inventory (2.6 Mg/yr) by more than an order of magnitude. These findings suggest that non-reported emissions from Annex 1 countries partly explain the recently derived gap between global bottom-up and top-down HFC-23 emission estimates. The results presented here provide independent information to relevant authorities on effective reporting of HFC-23 emissions| and demonstrate the potential of atmospheric measurements for real-world verification of greenhouse gas emissions. Citation: Keller| C. A.| D. Brunner| S. Henne| M. K. Vollmer| S. O'Doherty| and S. Reimann (2011)| Evidence for under-reported western European emissions of the potent greenhouse gas HFC-23| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L15808| doi:10.1029/2011GL047976. 3373,2011,2,3,Evidence that elevated CO(2) reduces resistance to the European large raspberry aphid in some raspberry cultivars,Global climate change| such as elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO(2))| may accelerate the breakdown of crop resistance to insect pests by compromising expression of resistance genes. This study investigated how eCO(2) (700 mu mol/mol) affected the susceptibility of red raspberry (Rubus idaeus) to the European large raspberry aphid (Amphorophora idaei) Borner (Homoptera: Aphididae)| using a susceptible cultivar (Malling Jewel) and cultivars containing either the A(1) (Glen Lyon) or A(10) (Glen Rosa) resistance genes. Compared to plants grown at ambient CO(2) (aCO(2)) (375 mu mol/mol)| growth rates were significantly increased (ranging from 42-300%) in all cultivars at eCO(2). There was some evidence that plants containing the A(1) gene were more susceptible to aphids at eCO(2)| with aphid populations doubling in size compared to the same plants grown at aCO(2). Moreover| aphids grew 38% larger (1.36 mg compared with 0.98 mg) on plants with the A(1) resistance gene at eCO(2) compared with those at aCO(2). Aphid performance on plants containing the A(1) gene grown at eCO(2) was therefore similar to that of aphids reared on entirely susceptible plants under either CO(2) treatment. In contrast| aphids did not respond to eCO(2) when reared on plants with the A(10) resistance gene| suggesting that plants with this resistance gene remained resistant to aphids at eCO(2). 3440,2011,2,4,Evolution of dispersal in explicitly spatial metacommunities,We apply an evolutionary game theoretic approach to the evolution of dispersal in explicitly spatial metacommunities| using a flexible parametric class of dispersal kernels| namely 2Dt kernels| and study the resulting evolutionary dynamics and outcomes. We observe strong selective pressure on mean dispersal distance (i.e.| the first moment)| and weaker| but significant| one on the shape of dispersal kernel (i.e.| higher moments). We investigate the effects of landscape topology and spatial heterogeneity on the resulting 'optimal' dispersal kernels. The shape-importantly the tail structure-and stability of evolutionarily optimal dispersal strategies are strongly affected by landscape topology or connectivity. Specifically| the results suggest that the optimal dispersal kernels in the river network topology have heavier tails and are stable| while those in the direct topology| where organisms are allowed to travel directly from one location to another| have relatively thin tails and may be unstable. We also find that habitat spatial heterogeneity enables coexistence and controls spatial distribution of distinct groups of dispersal strategies and that alteration in topology alone may not be sufficient to change such coexistence. This work provides a tool to translate environmental changes such as global climate change and human intervention into changes in dispersal behavior| which in turn may lead to important alterations of biodiversity and biological invasion patterns. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11771,2011,2,4,Evolution of extreme temperatures in a warming climate,The ongoing increase in extremely warm temperature events across large areas of the globe is generally thought to be a signature of a more extreme climate. However| it is still unclear whether global warming is accompanied by changes in statistical properties beyond the mean| such as an increasing temperature variability. Here we shed light on this issue by uncovering the way probabilities of extremes are being influenced by temperature evolution. Focusing on Europe| we show how the behavior of warm and cold extremes can be determined to a high accuracy by statistically modeling daily temperatures and their changes. Detailed comparison with observations over the past decades puts forward the dominant role of the mean in explaining exceptionally hot events| and rules out contributions from potential changes in second and higher moments. Citation: Simolo| C.| M. Brunetti| M. Maugeri| and T. Nanni (2011)| Evolution of extreme temperatures in a warming climate| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L16701| doi:10.1029/2011GL048437. 12611,2011,2,4,Evolution of habitat and environment of red deer (Cervus elaphus) during the Late-glacial and early Holocene in eastern France (French Jura and the western Alps) using multi-isotope analysis (delta(13)C| delta(15)N| delta(18)O| delta(34)S) of archaeological remains,Red deer (Cervus elaphus) is a flexible species that survived the significant climatic and environmental change toward warming temperature and forested landscape of the Late-glacial to early Holocene transition (ca. 17-6 ka cal BP). To investigate the conditions of ethological adaptation of red deer at that time| isotopic analysis of carbon| nitrogen| sulfur in collagen (delta(13)C(coll)| delta(15)N(coll)| delta(34)S(coll)) and of oxygen in phosphate (8180) were performed on red deer from archaeological sites of the French Jura and the western Alps. Fifty out of eighty two samples benefited from direct AMS radiocarbon dating| which confirmed the few number of red deer record during the cold Younger Dryas oscillation (ca. 12.8 -11.6 ka cal BP) in Western Europe. The French Jura red deer showed a significant decrease in their delta(13)C(coll) values and increase in their delta(15)N(coll) values in the early Holocene compared to the Late-glacial| which is most likely due to the change in environment from open areas with low pedogenic activity to warm dense forests with increasing soil maturity. In contrast| the stable delta(13)C(coll) and delta(15)N(coll) values over time in the western Alps were thought to indicate a change to higher altitude for the red deer habitat in this mountainous region. A decrease of the delta(18)O(p) values between the Late-glacial and the early Holocene was observed in the western Alps red deer| in contrast to the expected increase with rising temperature which was indeed confirmed for the French Jura red deer. The multi-isotope results pointed to open areas home range at higher altitude for the Alps red deer in the Holocene compared to the previous period. The similarity of the delta(34)S(coll) patterns with those of the delta(15)N(coll) suggested the primarily influence of soil activity on the (34)S abundances recorded by red deer in a purely terrestrial context. Red deer of the French Jura on one hand and of the western Alps on the other hand showed different adaptive response to the global warming of the early Holocene| with an ethological change in the first case and a change in home range in the second case. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 12684,2011,4,4,Evolution of hydrological and carbon cycles under a changing climate. Part III: global change impacts on landscape scale evapotranspiration,Hydrological and carbon cycles are inherently coupled and play a pivotal role in the earth system. Water stress is one of the most limiting factors constraining vegetation productivity in both direct and indirect ways (mainly through nutrition cycling). In this article| we first reviewed the concepts of hydrological and carbon cycles and their interactions and then summarized recent advances in our understanding of how global climate change affects water stress| ecosystem carbon cycling| disturbances| and water use efficiency. A warming climate may continue to benefit plant growth in energy limited areas such as high latitudes and altitudes. However| over many water-limited regions of the world| a warming climate has led to a drying trend| posing negative effects on land carbon sink capability| as shown by reductions in vegetation growth and increases in ecosystem disturbances (wildfires| insect outbreaks| and tree mortality). Carbon cycle and water use efficiency have responded to climate change in different ways in different areas. Further integrating information from climate records| flux measurements at eddy flux towers| and observations from satellites will greatly advance our understanding of the hydrological and carbon cycles and their evolution. Advancement in our understanding of the evolution of hydrological and carbon cycles under the changing climate will help us to adapt and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 11839,2011,2,4,Evolution of time-keeping mechanisms: early emergence and adaptation to photoperiod,Virtually all species have developed cellular oscillations and mechanisms that synchronize these cellular oscillations to environmental cycles. Such environmental cycles in biotic (e. g. food availability and predation risk) or abiotic (e. g. temperature and light) factors may occur on a daily| annual or tidal time scale. Internal timing mechanisms may facilitate behavioural or physiological adaptation to such changes in environmental conditions. These timing mechanisms commonly involve an internal molecular oscillator (a 'clock') that is synchronized ('entrained') to the environmental cycle by receptor mechanisms responding to relevant environmental signals ('Zeitgeber'| i.e. German for time-giver). To understand the evolution of such timing mechanisms| we have to understand the mechanisms leading to selective advantage. Although major advances have been made in our understanding of the physiological and molecular mechanisms driving internal cycles (proximate questions)| studies identifying mechanisms of natural selection on clock systems (ultimate questions) are rather limited. Here| we discuss the selective advantage of a circadian system and how its adaptation to day length variation may have a functional role in optimizing seasonal timing. We discuss various cases where selective advantages of circadian timing mechanisms have been shown and cases where temporarily loss of circadian timing may cause selective advantage. We suggest an explanation for why a circadian timing system has emerged in primitive life forms like cyanobacteria and we evaluate a possible molecular mechanism that enabled these bacteria to adapt to seasonal variation in day length. We further discuss how the role of the circadian system in photoperiodic time measurement may explain differential selection pressures on circadian period when species are exposed to changing climatic conditions (e. g. global warming) or when they expand their geographical range to different latitudes or altitudes. 12430,2011,2,4,Evolution of upwelling systems coupled to the long-term variability in sea surface temperature and Ekman transport,In the early 1990s it was hypothesized that the global warming process would produce an increase in sea-land temperature gradients and| subsequently| enhance the wind patterns responsible for coastal upwelling. Hence| an increase in the intensity of coastal upwelling was expected in the main upwelling ecosystems around the world. However| recently published analyses of the evolution of coastal upwelling processes have shown contradictory evidence. For this reason| time series of sea-surface temperature (SST) and the upwelling index I(w) extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project database and covering the last 6 decades were studied. The time series analyses focused on the northern part of the Canary Current System and included comparisons with upwelling systems off NW Africa| California| Benguela and Peru. Climatic indices| including the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation| Eastern Atlantic Pattern| Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Index and North Atlantic Oscillation| were investigated to explain the variability found in the NCEP/NCAR time series. A general sea-surface warming and weakening of the upwelling intensity in the Iberian/Canary and NW African regions were found and these have intensified in the last 4 decades. These trends were clearly observed in winter and autumn for both regions| and a weakening in the upwelling intensity was also detected in summer in the NW African region. The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Eastern Atlantic Pattern indices correlated with both SST and I(w)| particularly in winter and spring| and also with both the Iberian/Canary and NW African regions. No clear trend was found for the California region| while| conforming to the hypothesis| the Benguela region exhibited enhancement of upwelling| but only slight sea-surface warming. In contrast| the Peru region indicated a weakening of upwelling accompanied by marginal sea-surface warming. 12410,2011,2,4,Evolution Under Environmental Stress at Macro- and Microscales,Environmental stress has played a major role in the evolution of living organisms (Hoffman AA| Parsons PA. 1991. Evolutionary genetics and environmental stress. Oxford: Oxford University Press; Parsons PA. 2005. Environments and evolution: interactions between stress| resource inadequacy| and energetic efficiency. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 80:589-610). This is reflected by the massive and background extinctions in evolutionary time (Nevo E. 1995a. Evolution and extinction. Encyclopedia of Environmental Biology. New York: Academic Press| Inc. 1:717-745). The interaction between organism and environment is central in evolution. Extinction ensues when organisms fail to change and adapt to the constantly altering abiotic and biotic stressful environmental changes as documented in the fossil record. Extreme environmental stress causes extinction but also leads to evolutionary change and the origination of new species adapted to new environments. I will discuss a few of these global| regional| and local stresses based primarily on my own research programs. These examples will include the 1) global regional and local experiment of subterranean mammals; 2) regional experiment of fungal life in the Dead Sea; 3) evolution of wild cereals; 4) "Evolution Canyon"; 5) human brain evolution| and 6) global warming. 11843,2011,5,4,Evolutionary dynamics of the Permian-Triassic foraminifer size: Evidence for Lilliput effect in the end-Permian mass extinction and its aftermath,There is growing evidence of the Lilliput effect in the end-Permian mass extinction and its aftermath. However| very little has been published on assessing the Lilliput effect on protozoans in the Early Triassic based on quantitative analysis of a great quantity of samples from outcrop sections. This study investigates foraminiferal test size variations through the Changhsingian to the Olenekian based on fossil records from three outcrop sections in South China. The sharp reduction in foraminifer sizes coincides with the first or main episode of the end-Permian mass extinction. Foraminifers remained small in sizes in the early Induan. Their body sizes increased slowly in the late Induan to Olenekian| but never recovered to the pre-extinction test size levels. The Lilliput effect on foraminifera in the aftermath of the end-Permian crisis is indicated by the extinction of large taxa| decrease in size for surviving taxa and rise of small-sized new forms. Physiological reactions of various foraminifer groups reveal that several defaunation events such as anoxia| ocean acidification| and global warming that prevailed through the Permian-Triassic interval may be responsible for both the end-Permian crisis and the Lilliput effect. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11739,2011,2,4,Exceptional aerobic scope and cardiovascular performance of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) may underlie resilience in a warming climate,Little is known of the physiological mechanisms underlying the effects of climate change on animals| yet it is clear that some species appear more resilient than others. As pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in British Columbia| Canada| have flourished in the current era of climate warming in contrast to other Pacific salmonids in the same watershed| this study investigated whether the continuing success of pink salmon may be linked with exceptional cardiorespiratory adaptations and thermal tolerance of adult fish during their spawning migration. Sex-specific differences existed in minimum and maximum oxygen consumption rates ((M) over dot(O2| min) and (M) over dot(O2| max)| respectively) across the temperature range of 8 to 28 degrees C| reflected in a higher aerobic scope ((M) over dot(O2| max)-(M) over dot(O2| min)) for males. Nevertheless| the aerobic scope of both sexes was optimal at 21 degrees C (T(opt)) and was elevated across the entire temperature range in comparison with other Pacific salmonids. As T(opt) for aerobic scope of this pink salmon population is higher than in other Pacific salmonids| and historic river temperature data reveal that this population rarely encounters temperatures exceeding Topt| these findings offer a physiological explanation for the continuing success of this species throughout the current climate-warming period. Despite this| declining cardiac output was evident above 17 degrees C| and maximum attainable swimming speed was impaired above similar to 23 degrees C| suggesting negative implications under prolonged thermal exposure. While forecasted summer river temperatures over the next century are likely to negatively impact all Pacific salmonids| we suggest that the cardiorespiratory capacity of pink salmon may confer a selective advantage over other species. 12059,2011,4,4,Excitability in ramped systems: the compost-bomb instability,The paper studies a novel excitability type where a large excitable response appears when a system's parameter is varied gradually| or ramped| above some critical rate. This occurs even though there is a (unique) stable quiescent state for any fixed setting of the ramped parameter. We give a necessary and a sufficient condition for the existence of a critical ramping rate in a general class of slow-fast systems with folded slow (critical) manifold. Additionally| we derive an analytical condition for the critical rate by relating the excitability threshold to a canard trajectory through a folded saddle singularity. The general framework is used to explain a potential climate tipping point termed the 'compost-bomb instability'-an explosive release of soil carbon from peatlands into the atmosphere occurs above some critical rate of global warming even though there is a unique asymptotically stable soil carbon equilibrium for any fixed atmospheric temperature. 12559,2011,3,3,Exhaust emissions from a diesel powered vehicle fuelled by soybean biodiesel blends (B3-B20) with ethanol as an additive (B20E2-B20E5),The effects of diesel oil-soybean biodiesel blends on a passenger vehicle exhaust pollutant emissions were investigated. Blends of diesel oil and soybean biodiesel with concentrations of 3% (B3)| 5% (B5)| 10% (B10) and 20% (B20) were used as fuels. Additionally| the effects of anhydrous ethanol as an additive to B20 fuel blend with concentrations of 2% (B20E2) and 5% (B20E5) were also studied. The emissions tests were carried out following the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC). The results showed that increasing biodiesel concentration in the fuel blend increases carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and oxides of nitrogen (NO(X)) emissions| while carbon monoxide (CO)| hydrocarbons (HC) and particulate matter (PM) emissions are reduced. The addition of anhydrous ethanol to B20 fuel blend proved it can be a strategy to control exhaust NO(X) and global warming effects through the reduction of CO(2) concentration. However| it may require fuel injection modifications| as it increases CO| HC and PM emissions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11869,2011,3,4,Experimental investigation of a single-bed pressure swing adsorption refrigeration system towards replacement of halogenated refrigerants,Replacement of halogenated refrigerants with a suitable refrigeration system in order to prevent ozone layer depletion and minimize global warming has been a matter of research and worldwide attention for some decades. This paper presents the design and description of a single chambered experimental model for cold generation based on pressure swing adsorption mechanism with an objective to propose a feasible refrigeration system to replace halogenated refrigerants. Granular activated carbon (ACG-825-1.5) manufactured indigenously from matured coconut shell and carbon dioxide has been used as representative adsorbent-adsorbate pair. Refrigerating effect and coefficient of performance for the system have been investigated and were found to be 120.61 J/s and 3.014 respectively. The model successfully produced chilled water at 4 degrees C (277 K) from ambient water available at 26 degrees C (299 K). Details of the experimental results and adsorption-desorption isotherm for the system has been described. This work also highlights a novel method of capturing carbon dioxide by utilizing it as an adsorbate in such a refrigeration system. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12147,2011,3,3,Experimental investigation of solar-hydrogen energy system performance,Recently| the Solar-hydrogen energy system (SHES) becomes a reality thanks as well as a very common topic to energy research in Egypt as it is now being the key solution of different energy problems including global warming| poor air quality and dwindling reserves of liquid hydrocarbon fuels. Hydrogen is a flexible storage medium for energy and can be generated by the electrolysis of water. It is more particularly advantageous and efficient when the electrolyzer is simply coupled to a source of renewable electrical energy. This paper examines the operation of alkaline water electrolysis coupled with solar photovoltaic (PV) source for hydrogen generation with emphasis on the electrolyzer efficiency. PV generator is simulated using Matlab/Simulink to obtain its characteristics under different operating conditions with solar irradiance and temperature variations. The experimental alkaline water electrolysis system is built in the fluid mechanics laboratory of Menoufiya University and tested at certain input voltages and currents which are fed from the PV generator. The effects of voltage| solution concentration of electrolyte and the space between the pair of electrodes on the amount of hydrogen produced by water electrolysis as well as the electrolyzer efficiency are experimentally investigated. The water electrolysis of different potassium hydroxide aqueous solutions is conducted under atmospheric pressure using stainless steel electrodes. The experimental results showed that the performance of water electrolysis unit is highly affected by the voltage input and the gap between the electrodes. Higher rates of produced hydrogen can be obtained at smaller space between the electrodes and also at higher voltage input. The maximum electrolyzer efficiency is obtained at the smallest gap between electrodes| however| for a specified input voltage value within the range considered. Crown Copyright (C) 2011| Hydrogen Energy Publications| LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12245,2011,3,3,Experimental investigation of the natural gas confined flames using the OEC,The concept of environmental efficiency in equipment is increasing with the unfolding of global warming. In terms of industrial equipment| it is the burners which have a major impact in this discussion because of industrial combustion. Demand for environmentally more efficient burners with a reduction in emissions is essential for the proper use of fossil fuels during the transition between this energy and alternative energy sources for the next fifty years or more. This study experimentally evaluates the technique of oxygen-enhanced combustion - OEC - and its interaction with soot formation and thermal radiation in natural gas confined flames. The literature shows that the OEC technique - an important technique for improving the thermal efficiency of combustion - causes under certain conditions an increase in soot formation. Soot| as an important participant in radiant heat transfer| can increase the thermal efficiency of burners| implementing heat transfer from the flame to the heating areas| thereby reducing fuel consumption| the temperature of the flame| and consequently a reduction in the emission of NO(x). In the experiment was used low enriched with oxygen| which does not require significant existing equipment changes. This technology can play an important role in preparing particularly the oil and gas industry for the technological challenge of reducing global warming. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11926,2011,2,4,Experimental warming effects on the microbial community of a temperate mountain forest soil,Soil microbial communities mediate the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM). The amount of carbon (C) that is respired leaves the soil as CO(2) (soil respiration) and causes one of the greatest fluxes in the global carbon cycle. How soil microbial communities will respond to global warming| however| is not well understood. To elucidate the effect of warming on the microbial community we analyzed soil from the soil warming experiment Achenkirch| Austria. Soil of a mature spruce forest was warmed by 4 degrees C during snow-free seasons since 2004. Repeated soil sampling from control and warmed plots took place from 2008 until 2010. We monitored microbial biomass C and nitrogen (N). Microbial community composition was assessed by phospholipid fatty acid analysis (PLFA) and by quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) of ribosomal RNA genes. Microbial metabolic activity was estimated by soil respiration to biomass ratios and RNA to DNA ratios. Soil warming did not affect microbial biomass| nor did warming affect the abundances of most microbial groups. Warming significantly enhanced microbial metabolic activity in terms of soil respiration per amount of microbial biomass C. Microbial stress biomarkers were elevated in warmed plots. In summary| the 4 degrees C increase in soil temperature during the snow-free season had no influence on microbial community composition and biomass but strongly increased microbial metabolic activity and hence reduced carbon use efficiency. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11681,2011,2,4,Experimental warming had little effect on carbon-based secondary compounds| carbon and nitrogen in selected alpine plants and lichens,Global warming is expected to change plant defence through its influence on plant primary resources. Increased temperature (T) will increase photosynthesis| and thus carbon (C) availability| but may also increase soil mineralization and availability of nitrogen (N). More access to C and N is expected to mainly increase plant growth| and| according to hypotheses on resource based defence| this could lower plant concentrations of carbon-based secondary compounds (CBSCs). We used two already established warming experiment with open top chambers (OTCs) and control plots in alpine south-western Norway| one on a ridge (8 years' treatment) and a one in a leeside (3 years' treatment)| to study the effects of warming on plant and lichen defensive compound concentrations. The study included five vascular plant and six lichen species. One vascular plant species had lower concentration of CBSCs under elevated T| while the others did not respond to the treatment. In lichens there were no effects of warming on CBSCs| but a tendency to reduced total C concentrations. However| there were effects of warming on nitrogen| as the concentration decreased inside OTCs for three species| while it increased for one lichen species. Lichens generally had higher CBSC and total C concentrations on the ridge than in the leeside| but no such pattern were seen for vascular plants. No elevated temperature effect on CBCSs is most probably a result of high constitutive defence under the limiting alpine conditions| suggesting that chemical defence is little subject to change under climate warming| at least on a short-term basis. We suggest that the driving forces of plant defence in the arctic-alpine should be tested individually under controlled conditions| and suggest that competition from other plants may be a greater threat under climate warming than increased herbivory or disease attacks. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12016,2011,2,4,Experimental warming induces degradation of a Tibetan alpine meadow through trophic interactions,P>1. It is well known that climate change alters abiotic factors (temperature and water availability) that directly affect ecosystem properties. However| less is known about the indirect impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Here| we show that experimental warming may deteriorate ecosystems via trophic interactions. 2. In a Tibetan alpine meadow| plant species composition| size| coverage and above-ground biomass were investigated to reveal the effect of artificial warming (c. 1 degrees C mean annual temperature at the soil surface)| which was accomplished using warmed and ambient open top chambers. In addition| rodent damage to plants was assessed. 3. The dicot forb silverweed Potentilla anserina increased significantly| while other species groups remained unchanged or decreased in plant community dominance rank after 2 years of artificial warming. The change in community structure was attributed to the difference in biomass allocation and growth form among species. 4. In the third year| plateau zokors Myospalax fontanierii| a widespread rodent herbivore| damaged plants in the warmed chambers| while leaving plants in the ambient chambers mostly undamaged. Above-ground biomass was found to be smaller in the warmed chambers than the controls in the third year| in contrast to the trend of the first 2 years. In addition| zokor burrow density was positively correlated with silverweed biomass and its dominance within communities| which was consistent with findings of independent field investigations that silverweed-dominated plots were more likely to be visited and damaged by the zokors than sites-dominated by grass species. 5. Synthesis and applications. The top-down negative effect of zokor damage on above-ground biomass in the warmed chambers was induced by the bottom-up effect of changes in species composition and community structure on zokor foraging behaviour| which were driven by artificial warming. Such trophic interactions may invalidate some predictions of ecological effects by current species-climate envelope models. Furthermore| because management measures including increasing the water table| planting grass and moderate cattle grazing may prevent silverweed dominance| we suggest that these interventions could be employed to control zokor damage in alpine meadows that are predicted to be drier and warmer in the future. 12340,2011,2,4,Experimentally Simulated Global Warming and Nitrogen Enrichment Effects on Microbial Litter Decomposers in a Marsh,Atmospheric warming and increased nitrogen deposition can lead to changes of microbial communities with possible consequences for biogeochemical processes. We used an enclosure facility in a freshwater marsh to assess the effects on microbes associated with decomposing plant litter under conditions of simulated climate warming and pulsed nitrogen supply. Standard batches of litter were placed in coarse-mesh and fine-mesh bags and submerged in a series of heated| nitrogen-enriched| and control enclosures. They were retrieved later and analyzed for a range of microbial parameters. Fingerprinting profiles obtained by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) indicated that simulated global warming induced a shift in bacterial community structure. In addition| warming reduced fungal biomass| whereas bacterial biomass was unaffected. The mesh size of the litter bags and sampling date also had an influence on bacterial community structure| with the apparent number of dominant genotypes increasing from spring to summer. Microbial respiration was unaffected by any treatment| and nitrogen enrichment had no clear effect on any of the microbial parameters considered. Overall| these results suggest that microbes associated with decomposing plant litter in nutrient-rich freshwater marshes are resistant to extra nitrogen supplies but are likely to respond to temperature increases projected for this century. 12807,2011,3,2,Exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on political| economic and environmental considerations,This study provides a conceptual framework for exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on important economic| political and environmental considerations. Based on it| we analyse combinations of the proposed emission reduction ranges for Annex I countries as a group (25-40% below 1990 levels) and non-Annex I as a group (15-30% below baseline) by 2020 to limit global warming to 2 degrees C. We use results of the FAIR model with costs estimates based on two energy system models. We conclude that the range of targets that comply with a set of criteria for economic| political and environmental considerations is smaller than that by environmental considerations alone. More specifically| we find that according to our criteria| a 30% Annex I reduction target below 1990 levels| combined with a 20% non-Annex I reduction target below baseline emission levels (i.e. 20 to 30% above 2005 levels)| is the only combination of targets fulfilling all our criteria for both energy system models. Otherwise| reaching the 2 degrees C target becomes less likely| technically infeasible| or non-Annex I abatement costs are likely to exceed those of Annex I| a result| which we consider less plausible from a political viewpoint in our conceptual framework. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11721,2011,2,2,Exploring the Interplay between Natural Decadal Variability and Anthropogenic Climate Change in Summer Rainfall over China. Part I: Observational Evidence,Summer rainfall over China has experienced substantial variability on longer time scales during the last century| and the question remains whether this is due to natural| internal variability or is part of the emerging signal of anthropogenic climate change. Using the best available observations over China| the decadal variability and recent trends in summer rainfall are investigated with the emphasis on changes in the seasonal evolution and on the temporal characteristics of daily rainfall. The possible relationships with global warming are reassessed. Substantial decadal variability in summer rainfall has been confirmed during the period 1958-2008; this is not unique to this period but is also seen in the earlier decades of the twentieth century. Two dominant patterns of decadal variability have been identified that contribute substantially to the recent trend of southern flooding and northern drought. Natural decadal variability appears to dominate in general but in the cases of rainfall intensity and the frequency of rainfall days| particularly light rain days| then the dominant EOFs have a rather different character| being of one sign over most of China| and having principal components (PCs) that appear more trendlike. The increasing intensity of rainfall throughout China and the decrease in light rainfall days| particularly in the north| could at least partially be of anthropogenic origin| both global and regional| linked to increased greenhouse gases and increased aerosols. 12492,2011,4,4,Exponential Analysis in Assessing the Contribution of Greenhouse Gases Emissions to Global Warming,Several carbon cycle models listed in the IPCC materials are used for assessing the atmospheric CO(2) response to various scenarios for the CO(2) anthropogenic emission into the atmosphere. The same materials present the Green function expressions of these models in terms of this exponential approximation| i.e.| in the form of a sum of exponents. The uncertainties that occur when the Green function is substituted by its exponential approximation are investigated. The reason of such an analysis is a classic conclusion that a general problem of the exponential approximation refers to the class of inconsistent problems. 3207,2011,2,4,Expressed sequence tags from heat-shocked seagrass Zostera noltii (Hornemann) from its southern distribution range,Predicted global climate change threatens the distributional ranges of species worldwide. We identified genes expressed in the intertidal seagrass Zostera midi during recovery from a simulated low tide heat-shock exposure. Five Expressed Sequence Tag (EST) libraries were compared| corresponding to four recovery times following sub-lethal temperature stress| and a non-stressed control. We sequenced and analyzed 7009 sequence reads from 30 min| 2 h| 4 h and 24 h after the beginning of the heat-shock (AHS)| and 1585 from the control library| for a total of 8594 sequence reads. Among 51 Tentative UniGenes (TUGs) exhibiting significantly different expression between libraries| 19 (37.3%) were identified as 'molecular chaperones' and were over-expressed following heat-shock| while 12 (23.5%) were 'photosynthesis TUGs' generally under-expressed in heat-shocked plants. A time course analysis of expression showed a rapid increase in expression of the molecular chaperone class| most of which were heat-shock proteins; which increased from 2 sequence reads in the control library to almost 230 in the 30 min AHS library| followed by a slow decrease during further recovery. In contrast| 'photosynthesis TUGs' were under-expressed 30 min AHS compared with the control library| and declined progressively with recovery time in the stress libraries| with a total of 29 sequence reads 24 h AHS| compared with 125 in the control. A total of 4734 TUGs were screened for EST-Single Sequence Repeats (EST-SSRs) and 86 microsatellites were identified. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11807,2011,3,4,Extended Life Cycle Assessment of Southern Pink Shrimp Products Originating in Senegalese Artisanal and Industrial Fisheries for Export to Europe,Southern pink shrimp (Penaeus notialis) are an important Senegalese export commodity. Artisanal fisheries in rivers produce 60%. Forty percent are landed in trawl fisheries at sea. The shrimp from both fisheries result in a frozen| consumer-packed product that is exported to Europe. We applied attributional life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the environmental impact of the two supply chains and identify improvement options. In addition to standard LCA impact categories| biological impacts of each fishery were quantified with regard to landed by-catch| discard| seafloor impact| and size of target catch. Results for typical LCA categories include that artisanal fisheries have much lower inputs and emissions in the fishing phase than does the industrial fishery. For the product from artisanal fisheries| the main part of the impact in the standard LCA categories occurs during processing on land| mainly due to the use of heavy fuel oil and refrigerants with high global warming and ozone depletion potentials. From a biological point of view| each fishery has advantages and drawbacks| and a number of improvement options were identified. If developing countries can ensure biological sustainability of their fisheries and design the chain on land in a resource-efficient way| long distance to markets is not an obstacle to sustainable trading of seafood products originating in artisanal fisheries. 12754,2011,4,3,Extended warming of the northern high latitudes due to an overshoot of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation,The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the climate system because of the associated heat and freshwater transports. Global warming is projected to weaken the AMOC by up to 50% towards the end of the 21st century. Here we show a delayed aspect of climate change| linked to AMOC changes| in an idealised scenario of greenhouse-gas-increase and subsequent mitigation as projected by two comprehensive coupled climate models. Under an imposed increase in CO(2)| there is a reduction in meridional exchange of ocean waters due to the associated weakening AMOC| and an intensification of the hydrological cycle| which result in a tendency to increase salinity in the subtropics and to freshen the northern latitudes. The AMOC and meridional ocean transports recover during the subsequent mitigation phase. As the reservoir of very warm and saline water previously built up in the subtropics is transported northwards| a consequent massive increase of salinity in the Arctic/subpolar North Atlantic results in large density increases in the deep water formation regions. This drives an overshoot in the strength of the AMOC by 30-100% relative to its pre-industrial strength. This AMOC overshoot gives an extended period of anomalously strong northward heat transport| maintaining warmer northern high latitudes for decades after the atmospheric CO2 concentration returns to preindustrial values. This work demonstrates the important role of coupling between the hydrological cycle and large scale ocean dynamics in future climate change| and that some aspects of currently committed climate change have yet to be revealed. Citation: Wu| P.| L. Jackson| A. Pardaens| and N. Schaller (2011)| Extended warming of the northern high latitudes due to an overshoot of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L24704| doi:10.1029/2011GL049998. 12159,2011,5,4,Extinction of water plants in the Hula Valley: Evidence for climate change,We describe two events of water plant extinction in the Hula Valley| northern Israel: the ancient| natural extinction of 3 out of 14 extinct species at Gesher Benot Ya'aqov| which occurred some 800-700 k.yr.| and an anthropogenic| near contemporary extinction of seven species in the artificial drainage of the Hula Lake in the 1950s. We conclude that the considerable fraction of water plants that disappeared from the Hula Valley in the Early-Middle Pleistocene was the result of habitat desiccation and not global warming. Thus| there is evidence that the hominins who lived in the Hula Valley inhabited a comparatively dry place. The disappearance of water plant species was partially the result of reduced seed dispersal by birds (ornitochory) as a result of the shrinkage of water bodies and their number along the Rift Valley. We suggest that the disappearance of a group of rare| local water plants can be used as an indicator of climate drying and impacts on the local vegetation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12412,2011,2,3,Extreme climatic events over Vietnam from observational data and RegCM3 projections,Extreme climatic events| including hot days| cold nights and heavy rainfall days| were analysed for 7 climatic sub-regions in Vietnam| based on historical observed data and climate projections of the International Center for Theoretical Physics regional climate model version 3 (RegCM3). Firstly| historical observed data sets covering 1961-2007 were analyzed to detect extreme events and their decade-by-decade trends. Extreme events and their changes are quite different over the 7 sub-regions| owing to their different local climate. Secondly| the extremes of each sub-region detected from the simulation of RegCM3 for the baseline period 1980-1999 were applied to the projection in the years 2001-2050| based on the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios| to reveal the changing trend of extremes in the future. The RegCM3 projections indicate that| in general| hot summer days will increase and cold winter nights will decrease as a consequence of global warming. The rainy season heavy rainfall events tend to decrease for all sub-regions except for 2| in northwest and south-central Vietnam. Strong opposite projected changes in precipitation extremes over the southern half of Vietnam seem to be linked to changes in southwesterly air flow from the Bay of Bengal and the number of strong tropical cyclones coming from the South China Sea and the NW Pacific. 12202,2011,2,4,Extreme climatic events reduce ocean productivity and larval supply in a tropical reef ecosystem,Increasing ocean temperatures due to global warming are predicted to have negative effects on coral reef fishes. El Nino events are associated with elevated water temperatures at large spatial (1000s of km) and temporal (annual) scales| providing environmental conditions that enable temperature effects on reef fishes to be tested directly. We compared remote sensing data of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies| surface current flow and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration with monthly patterns in larval supply of coral reef fishes in nearshore waters around Rangiroa Atoll (French Polynesia) from January 1996 to March 2000. This time included an intense El Nino (April 1997-May 1998) event between two periods of La Nina (January-March 1996 and August 1998-March 2000) conditions. There was a strong relationship between the timing of the El Nino event| current flow| ocean productivity (as measured by Chl-a) and larval supply. In the warm conditions of the event| there was an increase in the SST anomaly index up to 3.5 degrees C above mean values and a decrease in the strength of the westward surface current toward the reef. These conditions coincided with low concentrations of Chl-a (mean: 0.06 mg m-3| SE +/- 0.004) and a 51% decline in larval supply from mean values. Conversely| during strong La Nina conditions when SST anomalies were almost 2 degrees C below mean values and there was a strong westward surface current| Chl-a concentration was 150% greater than mean values and larval supply was 249% greater. A lag in larval supply suggested that productivity maybe affecting both the production of larvae by adults and larval survival. Our results suggest that warming temperatures in the world's oceans will have negative effects on the reproduction of reef fishes and survival of their larvae within the plankton| ultimately impacting on the replenishment of benthic populations. 12605,2011,2,3,Extreme ecosystems and geosystems in the Canadian High Arctic: Ward Hunt Island and vicinity,Global circulation models predict that the strongest and most rapid effects of global warming will take place at the highest latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Consistent with this prediction| the Ward Hunt Island region at the northern terrestrial limit of Arctic Canada is experiencing the onset of major environmental changes. This article provides a synthesis of research including new observations on the diverse geosystems/ecosystems of this coastal region of northern Ellesmere Island that extends to latitude 83.11 degrees N (Cape Aldrich). The climate is extreme| with an average annual air temperature of -17.2 degrees C| similar to Antarctic regions such as the McMurdo Dry Valleys. The region is geologically distinct (the Pearya Terrane) and contains steep mountainous terrain intersected by deep fiords and fluvial valleys. Numerous glaciers flow into the valleys| fiords| and bays| and thick multi-year sea ice and ice shelves occur along the coast. These extreme ice features are currently undergoing rapid attrition. The polar desert landscape contains sparse| discontinuous patches of vegetation| including dense stands of the prostrate shrub Salix arctica (Artic willow) at some sites| and 37 species of vascular plants on Ward Hunt Island. Diverse aquatic ecosystems occur throughout the area| including meromictic| epishelf| and perennially ice-covered lakes. Many of these have responded strongly to climate shifts in the past and like other geosystems/ecosystems of the region are now sentinels of ongoing global climate change. 12163,2011,2,4,Extreme physiological adaptations as predictors of climate-change sensitivity in the narwhal| Monodon monoceros,P>Rapid changes in sea ice cover associated with global warming are poised to have marked impacts on polar marine mammals. Here we examine skeletal muscle characteristics supporting swimming and diving in one polar species| the narwhal| and use these attributes to further document this cetacean's vulnerability to unpredictable sea ice conditions and changing ecosystems. We found that extreme morphological and physiological adaptations enabling year-round Arctic residency by narwhals limit behavioral flexibility for responding to alternations in sea ice. In contrast to the greyhound-like muscle profile of acrobatic odontocetes| the longissimus dorsi of narwhals is comprised of 86.8% +/- 7.7% slow twitch oxidative fibers| resembling the endurance morph of human marathoners. Myoglobin content| 7.87 +/- 1.72 g/100 g wet muscle| is one of the highest levels measured for marine mammals. Calculated maximum aerobic swimming distance between breathing holes in ice is < 1|450 m| which permits routine use of only 2.6%-10.4% of ice-packed foraging grounds in Baffin Bay. These first measurements of narwhal exercise physiology reveal extreme specialization of skeletal muscles for moving in a challenging ecological niche. This study also demonstrates the power of using basic physiological attributes to predict species vulnerabilities to environmental perturbation before critical population disturbance occurs. 12167,2011,2,4,Extreme Precipitation over the West Coast of North America: Is There a Trend?,Heavy precipitation and the resulting flooding are the most serious weather-related hazards over the west coast of North America. This paper analyzes the trends in heavy precipitation for the period 1950-2009 by examining the decadal distributions of the top 60| 40| and 20 two-day precipitation events for a collection of stations along the coastal zone of the United States and British Columbia| as well as the decadal distribution of maximum daily discharge for unregulated rivers from northern California to Washington State. During the past 60 years there has been a modest increase in heavy precipitation events over southern and central coastal California| a decline in heavy events from northern California through the central Oregon coast| a substantial increase in major events over Washington| and a modest increase over coastal British Columbia. Most of these trends are not significantly different from zero at the 95% level. The trends in maximum daily discharge of unregulated rivers are consistent with the above pattern| with increasing discharges over the past three decades over Washington and northern Oregon and declines over the remainder of Oregon and northern California. Finally| the above trends in heavy rainfall and daily discharge are compared to the future patterns indicated by general circulation models under various global warming scenarios. 11868,2011,2,3,Extreme rainfall indices and its impact on rice productivity-A case study over sub-humid climatic environment,Frequent occurrences of extreme rainfall events create severe threat to agricultural production. This is one of the most significant consequences of global warming due to increase in greenhouse gases. A precise understanding of frequency and magnitude of these events and its influence on agricultural productivity can extensively help in policy decisions and planning agricultural as well as water management operations. This study has analyzed observed trends in extreme rainfall indices during monsoon months as well as seasonally at four stations located over different agro-ecological zones of Bihar| namely Samastipur (zone-I)| Madhepura (zone-II)| Sabour (zone-IIIA) and Patna (zone-IIIB). Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was employed for detection of trends and the slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. Since rice is the important crop in this part of the region| the vulnerability of extreme rainfall indices on productivity also analysed using simple correlations. All the sites show an increasing trend of number of clays with rainfall 10.0 cm or more (very heavy precipitation event) during monsoon season. Sabour shows a significant increasing trend of 0.4 and 0.6 day/decade| respectively during monsoon ancl annually. During September| occurrence of heavy precipitation events over Madhepura recorded a significant positive trend of 0.4 day/decade. Highly significant magnitudes of increasing trends were noticed for Madhepura (46.6 mm/decade) and Sabour (27.5 mm/decade) for occurrence of highest five-day total precipitation during monsoon season. The results show statistically significant positive trends of number of days with rainfall > R2.5 cm for all the study sites during August. All the sites| the magnitude of highest 1-day and 5-days maximum rainfall is showing increasing trend. Increasing trends of fraction of rainfall due to extremely wet days is also showing increasing trend in all the sites. The rice productivity showed 10th degree polynomial technological trend in all the sites and steady increase in all the sites except Samastipur. The correlation between extreme rainfall indices during monsoon season and productivity anomaly index indicate that almost all the extreme rainfall indices contribute positively to rice productivity except P95pTOT and R99pTOT over Sabour and R7.5 cm over Patna. If we assume the observed increasing trends in different extreme rainfall indices will continue| as estimated by the global circulation models| the chances of occurrence of intense rainfall events in near future will also increase proportionally and efforts should be made to prepare detailed site specific at least at district level disastrous management plan especially to reduce impact of extreme rainfall event on agricultural production system under changing climatic scenarios. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12621,2011,2,4,Factors affecting moorland plant communities and component species in relation to prescribed burning,1. The role of prescribed burning of vegetation to manage fire risk is controversial in a variety of situations worldwide. It is becoming more topical (i) as a result of potential global warming where the risk of wildfire might increase and (ii) because fire might affect the various ecosystem services provided in a different way. Where prescribed fire is used| ecologists need to know the impact on biodiversity (post-fire recovery) and on provisioning and regulating services such as water collection and carbon sequestration. Here| we assess the effect of prescribed burning on plant community composition and its component species at the regional scale of the Peak District| where the moorland vegetation is severely degraded. 2. Species cover (%) was assessed on five moors with respect to elapsed time since prescribed burning and vegetation height. A stratified random method was used to choose burn patches covering a range of ages since burning; quadrats were then sampled randomly within these patches over a 3-year period. Detrended correspondence analysis was used to relate species composition to significant environmental variables| and variation partitioning was used to assess their relative contribution. Response curves were produced for the major species with respect to elapsed time since burning and vegetation height. 3. The species ordination produced two gradients| (i) a continuum from a graminoid-dominated vegetation to one dominated by Erica tetralix| Vaccinium myrtillus and Rubus chamaemorus and (ii) a post-fire growth response of the dominant species| Calluna vulgaris. Species composition was more highly correlated with vegetation height than elapsed time since burning. The environmental variables explained 15.2% of the variation. 4. Calluna vulgaris was the only species to show an increasing response after burning; all others showed an increase immediately after burning| but then they either decreased or showed a unimodal/skewed response. Most other species were restricted to vegetation <40 cm height and 20-25 years after burning. 5. Synthesis and applications. We found two major results of importance to policy makers and land managers: (i) that prescribed burning maintains species diversity in the immediate post-burn phase| and (ii) as the vegetation ages and increases in height| most species disappear and the vegetation becomes dominated by C. vulgaris. From a policy perspective| prescribed burning (or some other disturbance) is needed to maintain burning and a no-burn policy will result in a low-diversity| C. vulgaris-dominated vegetation. As vegetation height is the easiest measure for land managers to use in judging when to burn| we recommend moorland vegetation be burned before it reaches 25 cm in height to maintain the pre-burn complement of plant species. If the rotation allows the vegetation to become much taller (>40 cm)| then most species will be lost and they will have to colonize after subsequent fires from the seedbank or from the surrounding area. 12541,2011,3,4,Failure analysis and risk management of a collapsed large wind turbine tower,Developing renewable energy is crucial as nations face the twin threats of global warming and a reduction in energy supplies Wind turbines are one of the most promising sources of renewable energy in Taiwan However on September 28 2008 Typhoon Jangmi struck Taiwan bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall that collapsed a wind turbine tower located on the shore of Taichung Harbor This study provides significant insights into and lessons learned from post-disaster inspection into the causes of tower failure during this typhoon This event represented the first time that a wind turbine in Taiwan that had to be reconstructed after collapsing To prevent similar accidents the likely causal mechanisms are examined from the risk management perspective Data for case analysis are collected from original tower design reports the tower design code construction records and documents historical wind-speed data structural tower analysis and intact and fractured bolt material tests Furthermore similar accidents in other countries and their causes are reviewed to identify potential risk factors affecting the lifecycle of wind turbines (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved 11610,2011,3,3,Fast and Exothermic Reaction of CO(2) and Li(3)N into C-N-Containing Solid Materials,The conversion of CO(2) to valuable compounds| which is considered as an effective approach to solve the global warming| represents a great challenge due to the high stability and low reactivity of CO(2). Herein| thermodynamic calculations predicted the feasibility of exothermic reactions between CO(2) and Li(3)N into two important solid materials carbon nitride and lithium cyanamide. Furthermore| the feasibility was confirmed by experiments| namely| the fast reaction between CO(2) and Li(3)N produced crystal lithium cyanamide and amorphous carbon nitrides. This provides a novel process to control CO(2) emissions. 11566,2011,2,3,Fate of (13)C in metabolic pathways and effects of high CO(2) on the alteration of metabolites in Rumex obtusifolius L.,In present study| in vivo turn-over of (13)CO(2) to organic acids such as oxalate and citrate in Rumex obtusifolius L. was explored. Conversion of fixed carbon to oxalate was studies using "new leaves"| i.e.| leaves removed from 2-month-old-plants grown under different environmental conditions. Collected new leaves and stems were subjected to metabolomic analyses using capillary electrophoresis mass spectrometry. The results showed the mobilization of metabolites from stems to new leaves| where active TCA cycle and oxalate pathways occurred. The (13)C labeling experiments also indicated that these pathways are active in new leaves. Subsequently| we compared the effects of high carbon dioxide level (1000 ppm) and nutrients (Hoagland's formulation) on the metabolite accumulation in R. obtusifolius. Data analysed by both principal component and hierarchical clustering analyses revealed significant changes in metabolite accumulation. The accumulation of most abundant metabolite oxalate in leaves was affected by both high CO(2) as the carbon source and nutrients. We suggest that the common weed R. obtusifolius may proliferate in cultivated lands under high CO(2) level| a potential cause of global warming. 3435,2011,2,4,Fertilization trajectory of the root crop Raphanus sativus across atmospheric pCO(2) estimates of the next 300 years,Plant biomass is known to increase in response to elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentration (pCO(2)); however| no experiments have quantified the trajectory of crop fertilization across the full range of pCO(2) levels estimated for the next 300 years. Here we quantify the above- and below-ground biomass response of Raphanus sativus (common radish) across eight pCO(2) levels ranging from 348 to 1791 ppmv. We observed a large net biomass increase of 58% above ground and 279% below ground. A large part of the net increase (38% of the above-ground and 53% of the below-ground) represented biomass fertilization at the high levels of pCO(2) (700-1791 ppmv) predicted if fossil fuel emissions continue unabated. The trajectory of below-ground fertilization in R. sativus greatly exceeded a trajectory based on extrapolation of previous experiments for plants grown at pCO(2) < 800 ppmv. Based on the experimental parameters used to grow these plants| we hypothesize that these experiments represent the maximum CO(2) fertilization that can be achieved for this plant growing under low light levels. If the below-ground biomass enhancement that we have quantified for R. sativus represents a generalized root-crop response that can be extrapolated to agricultural systems| below-ground fertilization under very high pCO(2) levels could dramatically augment crop production in some of the poorest nations of the world| provided that water resources are sufficient and sustainable. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12007,2011,3,2,Field experiments on greenhouse gas emissions and nitrogen and phosphorus losses from rice paddy with efficient irrigation and drainage management,Greenhouse gas emissions| nitrogen and phosphorous losses through ammonia volatilization| leaching and surface drainage from rice paddy under efficient irrigation and drainage were analyzed based on field experimental data in order to reveal the eco-environmental impacts of efficient irrigation and drainage on rice paddy. The results showed that total methane emission from rice paddy under the controlled irrigation was reduced by more than 80% and total nitrous oxide emission increased by 15.9% compared with flooding irrigation. Seasonal comprehensive global warming potentials (GWP) of methane and nitrous oxide were 62.23 gCO(2) m(-2) for rice paddy under the controlled irrigation| reduced by 68.0% compared with flooding irrigation. Due to large reduction in seepage and surface drainages| nitrogen and phosphorous losses through leaching were reduced by 40.1% and 54.8%| nitrogen and phosphorous losses through surface drainage were reduced by 53.9% and 51.6% from rice paddy under efficient irrigation and drainage compared with traditional irrigation and drainage. Nitrogen loss through ammonia volatilization was reduced by 14.0%. Efficient irrigation and drainage management is helpful to mitigate greenhouse gases emission| nitrogen and phosphorus losses and their pollution on groundwater and surface water. 3466,2011,2,4,Field studies on the relation between the accumulation of heavy metals and metabolic and HSR in the bearded horse mussel Modiolus barbatus,The present study aims to examine whether the seasonal changes in the levels of heavy metals Cd and Pb in the gills of sublittoral mussel Modiolus barbatus from populations distributed in Thermaikos Gulf are correlated to seasonal molecular (Heat Shock Response) and metabolic stress responses of this species. Our results indicate a season effect in the accumulation of heavy metals in the gills of bivalves in the area of Thermaikos Gulf| possibly implicating biological (reproductive cycle)| natural (rivers' flow) and anthropogenic factors. Among the members of heat shock proteins (Hsps) examined| inducible Hsp70 seemed to play a major cytoprotective role against toxicity of metals. However| bivalves' tolerance against heavy metals may decrease during warming| arising further questions for their survival in context of global warming. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 12063,2011,2,4,Field Survey on the Relation between IAQ and Occupants' Health in 40 Houses in Southern Taiwan,Taiwan and Japan are similar in life style and customs. Taiwan is geographically situated in a subtropical climate zone which is deemed as a future model of Japanese climate if global warming continues. It is therefore advantageous for Japanese to know the present IAQ (Indoor Air Quality) situations in Taiwan. The research was carried out in two phases. The first phase used questionnaire surveys to collect the relevant information of the occupants and their living environments| and QEESI questionnaires (Chinese version) for information regarding their health conditions. In the second phase| IAQ measurements were conducted in the 40 houses which were selected among volunteers of the first survey. Measurement items were temperature| humidity and concentrations of carbonyl compounds and VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds). Verification measurements were conducted to investigate the hypothesis in the two houses| A and B| selected from 40 measured houses. The amount of furnishing materials in the two houses was quite different. Finally| the questionnaire results| QEESI (Quick Exposure Sensitivity Inventory) scores| and IAQ data were compared accordingly to determine the factors that cause SHS (Sick House Syndrome). The results are as follows. 1. For areas deficient in SHS and/or MCS (Multiple Chemical Sensitivity) diagnoses| combining QEESI investigations and IAQ measurements in the surveys is successful in screening SH and discovering SHS. 2. To reduce indoor air pollution effectively| it is insufficient just to regulate the materials and the quantity of interior furnishings. Construction process| ventilation rate| airflow path| and an overall plan with strict assessment should all be included in the regulations.
3497,2011,4,4,Flowering phenology change and climate warming in southwestern Ohio,Global surface temperature has increased markedly over the last 100 years. This increase has a variety of implications for human societies| and for ecological systems. One of the most obvious ways ecosystems are affected by global climate change is through alteration of organisms' developmental timing (phenology). We used annual botanical surveys that documented the first flowering for an array of species from 1976 to 2003 to examine the potential implications of climate change for plant development. The overall trend for these species was a progressively earlier flowering time. The two earliest flowering taxa (Galanthus and Crocus) also exhibited the strongest shift in first flowering. We detected a significant trend in climate suggesting higher temperatures in winter and spring over the sampling interval and found a significant relationship between warming temperatures and first flowering time for some species. Although 60% of the species in our study flowered earlier over the sampling interval| the remaining species exhibited no statistically detectable change. This variation in response is ostensibly associated with among-species variation in the role of climate cues in plant development. Future work is needed to isolate specific climate cues| and to link plant phenology to the physiological processes that trigger plant development. 12086,2011,4,4,Fluctuations| in some climate parameters,There is argument as to the extent to which there has been an increase over the past few decades in the frequency of the extremes of climatic parameters| such as temperature| storminess| precipitation| etc| an obvious point being that Global Warming might be responsible. Here we report results on those parameters of which we have had experience during the last few years: Global surface temperature| Cloud Cover and the MODIS Liquid Cloud Fraction. In no case we have found indications that fluctuations of these parameters have increased with time. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11698,2011,4,4,Fluorescence of coral larvae predicts their settlement response to crustose coralline algae and reflects stress,Multi-coloured homologues of the green fluorescent protein generate some of the most striking visual phenomena in the ocean. Despite their natural prominence in reef-building corals and widespread use in biotechnology| their biological role remains obscure. Here| we experimented with larvae of Acropora millepora to determine what can be learned about a coral larva or recruit from its fluorescent colour. We performed 12 crosses between seven A. millepora colonies representing differing fluorescence phenotypes| the larvae of which were exposed to a natural settlement cue (crustose coralline algae) and heat-light stress. Parental effects explained 18 per cent of variation in colour and 47 per cent of variation in settlement. The colour of the larval family emerged as a predictor of the settlement success: redder families were significantly less responsive to the provided settlement cue (p 0.006). This relationship was owing to a correlation between parental effects on settlement and colour (r 2 0.587| p 0.045). We also observed pronounced (16%) decline in settlement rate| as well as subtle (2%)| but a statistically significant decrease in red fluorescence| as a consequence of heat-light stress exposure. Variation in settlement propensity in A. millepora is largely owing to additive genetic effects| and is thought to reflect variation in dispersal potential. Our results suggest an optical signature to discriminate between long-and short-range dispersing genotypes| as well as to evaluate stress. Further research in this direction may lead to the development of field applications to trace changes in coral life history and physiology caused by global warming. 12010,2011,5,4,Foraminiferal faunal evidence of twentieth-century Barents Sea warming,Instrumental monitoring of the climate at high northern latitudes has documented the ongoing warming of the last few decades. Climate modelling has also demonstrated that the global warming signal will be amplified in the polar region. Such temperature increases would have important implications on the ecosystem and biota of the Barents Sea. This study therefore aims to reconstruct the climatic changes of the Barents Sea based on benthic foraminifera over approximately the last 1400 years at the decadal to sub-decadal scale. Oxygen and carbon isotope analysis and benthic foraminiferal species counts indicate an overall warming trend of approximately 2.6 degrees C through the 1400-year record. In addition| the well-documented cooling period equating to the 'Little Ice Age' is evident between c. 1650 and 1850. Most notably| a series of highly fluctuating temperatures are observed over the last century. An increase of 1.5 degrees C is shown across this period. Thus for the first time we are able to demonstrate that the recent Arctic warming is also reflected in the oceanic micro-fauna. 12474,2011,2,3,FORECASTING CARBON BUDGET UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE AND CO(2) FERTILIZATION FOR SUBTROPICAL REGION IN CHINA USING INTEGRATED BIOSPHERE SIMULATOR (IBIS) MODEL,The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO| concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS)| a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM)| was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO| fertilization on net primary production (NPP)| net ecosystem production (NEP)| and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101|800 Km(2)| mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA| HC3GG| CGCM-srcsa2| and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical bio-mass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data| which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr(-1) during the last half of the 21(st) century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21(st) century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO(2) and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr(-1). NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr(-1) by the end of the 21(st) century with the increasing atmospheric CO| concentration and climate change. However| climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO(2) concentration will have little contribution to vegetation changes. Simulated NPP shows geographic patterns consistent with temperature to a certain extent| and precipitation is not the limiting factor for forest NPP in the subtropical climate conditions. There is no close relationship between the spatial pattern of NEP and climate condition. 12299,2011,2,4,Forecasting ecological and evolutionary strategies to global change: an example from habitat selection by lemmings,Ecologists and evolutionary biologists must develop theories that can predict the consequences of global warming and other impacts on Earth's biota. Theories of adaptive habitat selection are particularly promising because they link distribution and density with fitness. The evolutionarily stable strategy that emerges from adaptive habitat choice is given by the system's habitat isodar| the graph of densities in pairs of habitats such that the expectation of fitness is the same in each. We illustrate how isodars can be converted into adaptive landscapes of habitat selection that display the density- and frequency-dependent fitness of competing strategies of habitat use. The adaptive landscape varies with the abundance of habitats and can thus be used to predict future adaptive distributions of individuals under competing scenarios of habitat change. Application of the theory to three species of Arctic rodents living on Herschel Island in the Beaufort Sea predicts changes in selection gradients as xeric upland increases in frequency with global warming. Selection gradients will become more shallow for brown lemming (Lemmus trimucronatus) and tundra vole (Microtus oeconomus) strategies that preferentially exploit mesic habitat. Climate change will cause selection gradients for the alternative strategy of using mostly xeric habitat to become much steeper. Meanwhile| the adaptive landscape for collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus)| which specialize on xeric Dryas-covered upland| will become increasingly convex. Changes in the adaptive landscapes thus predict expanding niches for Lemmus and Microtus| and a narrower niche for Dicrostonyx. The ability to draw adaptive landscapes from current patterns of distribution represents one of the few methods available to forecast the consequences of climate change on the future distribution and evolution of affected species. 12771,2011,2,3,Forecasting estimates of weather conditions for fire-hazardous season in forests,Possible changes of climatic conditions for fire-hazardous seasons for the XXI century have been considered. Forecasting calculations are based on the results of climatic conditions simulation on the ensemble of atmosphere and ocean coupled general circulation models (CGCM) considering different scenarios of social development and anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gas. 3238,2011,3,3,Forest management for mitigation and adaptation to climate change: Insights from long-term silviculture experiments,Developing management strategies for addressing global climate change has become an increasingly important issue influencing forest management around the globe. Currently| management approaches are being proposed that intend to (1) mitigate climate change by enhancing forest carbon stores and (2) foster adaptation by maintaining compositionally and structurally complex forests. However| little is known about the compatibility of these two objectives or the long-term efficacy of a given management regime at simultaneously achieving adaptation and mitigation. To address this need| we examined stand-level carbon and complexity responses using five long-term (> 50 yrs) silviculture experiments within the upper Great Lakes region| USA. In particular| live tree carbon stores and sequestration rates| and compositional and structural complexity were analyzed from three thinning experiments in Pinus resinosa and two selection method experiments in northern hardwood systems to elucidate the long-term effects of management on these ecosystem attributes and the general compatibility of mitigation and adaptation objectives. As expected| we observed a general increase in large tree densities with stand age and positive relationships between stand stocking level and live tree carbon stores. More importantly| our results clearly identify tradeoffs between the achievement of mitigation and adaptation objectives across each study. For example| maintaining higher stocking levels (i.e.| enhanced mitigation by increasing carbon stores) resulted in decreases in stand-level structural and compositional complexity (i.e.| reduced adaptation potential). In addition| rates of live tree carbon increment were also the lowest within the highest stocking levels; despite the benefits of these stand conditions to maximizing carbon stores. Collectively| these findings underscore the importance of avoiding rigid adherence to a single objective| such as maximum on-site carbon stores| without recognizing potential consequences to other ecosystem components crucial to ensuring long-term ecosystem functioning within the context of environmental change. One potential stand-level strategy for balancing these goals may be to employ multi-aged management systems| such as irregular shelterwood and selection systems| that maintain a large proportion of carbon stores in retained mature trees while using thinning to create spatial heterogeneity that promotes higher sequestration rates in smaller| younger trees and simultaneously enhances structural and compositional complexity. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11905,2011,2,4,Formula of incipient velocity for flooded vehicles,With the climate change caused by global warming| the occurrence probability of urban flooding due to flash floods has increased gradually. Flush floods propagate rapidly| which can lead to significant hazard to human life and property. Flood hazard to vehicles has become more noticeable and frequent in recent years. Therefore| it is important to investigate the behaviour of vehicles on flooded streets or roads. In the current study| a formula has been derived to predict the incipient velocity of flooded vehicles according to the mechanical condition of sliding equilibrium. A series of flume experiments were conducted using three types of scaled die-cast model vehicles| with two scales being tested for each type of vehicle. The experimental data obtained for the small-scale model vehicles were used to determine the two parameters in the derived formula| and the prediction accuracy of this formula was validated using the experimental data obtained for the large-scale model vehicles. Finally| the corresponding incipient velocities under various incoming depths were computed using this formula for these three prototype vehicles. It is found that for a specified vehicle| the value of incipient velocity reaches its minimum as the incoming flow depth approaches the height of the vehicle| and the smaller and lighter vehicle like Mini Cooper is the easiest to start sliding in floodwaters. The results can be used as a preliminary assessment to define the hazard to vehicles parking on flooded streets or roads. 11694,2011,4,4,Fossil organic matter characteristics in permafrost deposits of the northeast Siberian Arctic,Permafrost deposits constitute a large organic carbon pool highly vulnerable to degradation and potential carbon release due to global warming. Permafrost sections along coastal and river bank exposures in NE Siberia were studied for organic matter (OM) characteristics and ice content. OM stored in Quaternary permafrost grew| accumulated| froze| partly decomposed| and refroze under different periglacial environments| reflected in specific biogeochemical and cryolithological features. OM in permafrost is represented by twigs| leaves| peat| grass roots| and plant detritus. The vertical distribution of total organic carbon (TOC) in exposures varies from 0.1 wt % of the dry sediment in fluvial deposits to 45 wt % in Holocene peats. Variations in OM parameters are related to changes in vegetation| bioproductivity| pedogenic processes| decomposition| and sedimentation rates during past climate variations. High TOC| high C/N| and low delta(13)C reflect less decomposed OM accumulated under wet| anaerobic soil conditions characteristic of interglacial and interstadial periods. Glacial and stadial periods are characterized by less variable| low TOC| low C/N| and high delta(13)C values indicating stable environments with reduced bioproductivity and stronger OM decomposition under dryer| aerobic soil conditions. Based on TOC data and updated information on bulk densities| we estimate average organic carbon inventories for ten different stratigraphic units in northeast Siberia| ranging from 7.2 kg C m(-3) for Early Weichselian fluvial deposits| to 33.2 kg C m(-3) for Middle Weichselian Ice Complex deposits| to 74.7 kg C m(-3) for Holocene peaty deposits. The resulting landscape average is likely about 25% lower than previously published permafrost carbon inventories. 3467,2011,2,4,Freshwater Flow and Fisheries Production in Estuarine and Coastal Systems: Where a Drop of Rain Is Not Lost,This review presents a synopsis of the impacts of freshwater flow on fisheries production in estuarine and coastal systems| with particular emphasis on regional examples from eastern Australia and southern Africa. Freshwater flow impacts habitat availability| trophic interactions| and fishers' harvesting behavior in estuarine and coastal systems. Seasonal and interannual variation in freshwater flow influences the distribution and abundance of fish and invertebrates through changes in growth| survival| and recruitment. Episodic flood and drought events have pronounced impacts on fisheries production due to rapid changes in physicochemical conditions modifying species richness and diversity. Many documented reductions in fisheries production have been attributed to river regulation modifying natural variation in freshwater flow. Protecting natural flow regimes is likely to be an effective management strategy to maintain the production of estuarine and coastal fisheries. Understanding the freshwater requirements of estuarine and coastal fisheries will become increasingly important as climate change modifies the hydrological cycle and as human population growth increases demand for water resources. One major challenge for scientists seeking to explore relationships between freshwater flow and fisheries production is to understand how variable flows influence resource availability| fishing activity| and the economic performance of commercial fisheries in estuarine and coastal systems. 3164,2011,4,4,From Dust Bowl to Dust Bowl: Soils are Still Very Much a Frontier of Science,When the Soil Science Society of America was created| 75 yr ago| the USA was suffering from major dust storms| causing the loss of enormous amounts of topsoil as well as human lives. These catastrophic events reminded public officials that soils are essential to society's well-being. The Soil Conservation Service was founded and farmers were encouraged to implement erosion mitigation practices. Still| many questions about soil processes remained poorly understood and controversial. In this article| we argue that the current status of soils worldwide parallels that in the USA at the beginning of the 20th century. Dust bowls and large-scale soil degradation occur over vast regions in a number of countries. Perhaps more so even than in the past| soils currently have the potential to affect populations critically in several other ways as well| from their effect on global climate change| to the toxicity of brownfield soils in urban settings. Even though our collective understanding of soil processes has experienced significant advances since 1936| many basic questions still remain unanswered| for example whether or not a switch to no-till agriculture promotes C sequestration in soils| or how to account for microscale heterogeneity in the modeling of soil organic matter transformation. Given the enormity of the challenges raised by our (ab) uses of soils| one may consider that if we do not address them rapidly| and in the process heed the example of U. S. public officials in the 1930s who took swift action| humanity may not get a chance to explore other frontiers of science in the future. From this perspective| insistence on the fact that soils are critical to life on earth| and indeed to the survival of humans| may again stimulate interest in soils among the public| generate support for soil research| and attract new generations of students to study soils. 11596,2011,4,4,From population-level effects to individual response: modelling temperature dependence in Gammarus pulex,Population-level effects of global warming result from concurrent direct and indirect processes. They are typically described by physiologically structured population models (PSPMs). Therefore| inverse modelling offers a tool to identify parameters of individual physiological processes through population-level data analysis| e. g. the temperature dependence of growth from size-frequency data of a field population. Here| we make use of experiments under laboratory conditions| in mesocosms and field monitoring to determine the temperature dependence of growth and mortality of Gammarus pulex. We found an optimum temperature for growth of approximately 17 degrees C and a related temperature coefficient| Q(10)| of 1.5 degrees C(-1)| irrespective of whether we classically fitted individual growth curves or applied inverse modelling based on PSPMs to laboratory data. From a comparison of underlying data sets we conclude that applying inverse modelling techniques to population-level data results in meaningful response parameters for physiological processes if additional temperature-driven effects| including within-population interaction| can be excluded or determined independently. If this is not the case| parameter estimates describe a cumulative response| e. g. comprising temperature-dependent resource dynamics. Finally| fluctuating temperatures in natural habitats increased the uncertainty in parameter values. Here| PSPM should be applied for virtual monitoring in order to determine a sampling scheme that comprises important dates to reduce parameter uncertainty. 12261,2011,3,4,Fuel cycle CO(2)-e targets of renewable hydrogen as a realistic transportation fuel in Australia,The claim of catastrophic man made climate change or global warming through anthropogenic CO(2) has presently focused the interest on the tailpipe emissions of CO(2) per km| with recent legislations obsessively targeting these emissions of CO(2) with defectively implemented procedures. With a variety of different propulsion solutions (electric| hybrid electric| hybrid mechanic| conventional) and different fuels (Diesel| Petrol| alternative fossil| alternative renewable) available in the near future| a more comprehensive approach based on the full fuel cycle| and eventually also the full life cycle of the vehicle appear to be necessary. The paper is a contribution to trigger further improvement to currently implemented procedures. The paper discusses the CO(2) emission data in the present form| some simple but effective measures to improve the accuracy of the data collection procedure| and propose results of fuel cycle CO(2)-e analysis of vehicles with electric and thermal engines having different fuels. Vehicles with advanced internal combustion engines and power trains fuelled with Diesel may reach CO(2)-e values of 100 g/km in Australia. Use of bio-ethanol in these vehicles may deliver in Australia a significant reduction of CO(2)-e emissions to values below 36 g/km. Emission factors for Victoria are presently 1.23 kg CO(2)-e/kWh for the purchased electricity and vehicles powered by electric motors will need a significant reduction of this indirect CO2-e emission to become competitive. Values below 0.5 kg CO(2)-e/kWh are needed to make electric cars competitive with Diesel cars while values below 0.1 kg CO(2)-e/kWh are needed to make electric cars competitive with bio-ethanol cars. Compared with all these alternatives| renewable hydrogen may possibly compete with Diesel when produced with renewable energy sources and made available at the pump for less than 0.1 kg CO(2)-e/MJ of fuel energy| and with bio-ethanol if produced and distributed at a cost below 0.02 kg CO(2)-e/MJ of fuel energy. Copyright (C) 2011| Hydrogen Energy Publications| LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11572,2011,2,4,Functional and spatial pressures on terrestrial vegetation in Antarctica forced by global warming,There is growing interest in what controls the present distribution of terrestrial vegetation in Antarctica because of the potential use of biodiversity as an indicator or predictor of the effects of climate change. Recent advances in knowledge of distribution and ecophysiological performance of terrestrial vegetation means that an initial analysis of the potential influence of temperature is now possible. Regressions of species numbers of lichens| mosses and hepatics on latitude and mean annual temperature (standard macroclimatic data) were carried out| and the terrestrial vegetation in Antarctica could be divided into two zones. The microenvironmental zone lies south of around 72 degrees S| and biodiversity (richness and location) is uncoupled from the macroenvironment and is| instead| determined by the occasional coincidences of warmth| water| light and shelter. The macroenvironmental zone lies north of about 72 degrees S| and biodiversity (richness| cover and growth) is strongly positively linked to mean annual temperature; species numbers increase at about 9-10% per K (24.0| 9.3 and 1.8 species for lichens| mosses and hepatics| respectively) probably due to improved water availability through increased precipitation and longer active period (monthly degree-days also reach zero at about 72 degrees S) allowing greater productivity| completion of metabolic processes and a switch from survival to growth strategies. Cyanobacterial lichens appear to be a special case and may be expanding after being forced into northerly refugia. Warming will cause a southward movement of the boundary between the two zones but distribution in the microenvironmental zone will remain determined by local coincidences of environment and resources. 12226,2011,2,4,Functional Structure of Biological Communities Predicts Ecosystem Multifunctionality,The accelerating rate of change in biodiversity patterns| mediated by ever increasing human pressures and global warming| demands a better understanding of the relationship between the structure of biological communities and ecosystem functioning (BEF). Recent investigations suggest that the functional structure of communities| i.e. the composition and diversity of functional traits| is the main driver of ecological processes. However| the predictive power of BEF research is still low| the integration of all components of functional community structure as predictors is still lacking| and the multifunctionality of ecosystems (i.e. rates of multiple processes) must be considered. Here| using a multiple-processes framework from grassland biodiversity experiments| we show that functional identity of species and functional divergence among species| rather than species diversity per se| together promote the level of ecosystem multifunctionality with a predictive power of 80%. Our results suggest that primary productivity and decomposition rates| two key ecosystem processes upon which the global carbon cycle depends| are primarily sustained by specialist species| i.e. those that hold specialized combinations of traits and perform particular functions. Contrary to studies focusing on single ecosystem functions and considering species richness as the sole measure of biodiversity| we found a linear and non-saturating effect of the functional structure of communities on ecosystem multifunctionality. Thus| sustaining multiple ecological processes would require focusing on trait dominance and on the degree of community specialization| even in species-rich assemblages. 12756,2011,2,3,Future Change in Extratropical Cyclones Associated with Change in the Upper Troposphere,Future changes in Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm activity as a consequence of global warming are investigated using the AGCM of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with horizontal grid sizes of 60 and 20 km. A future (2075-99) climate experiment| in which the change in sea surface temperature (SST) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel ensemble mean is added to observed SST| is compared with a present-day (1979-2003) climate experiment. Results of three-member simulations using the 60-km model are presented. A single simulation using the 20-km model is also presented| showing that similar results are obtained. In the future climate experiment| the number of intense cyclones (sea level pressure below 980 hPa) shows a significant increase whereas the number of total cyclones shows a significant decrease| similar to the results obtained from the CMIP3 models themselves. The increase in intense cyclones is seen on the polar side and downstream side of Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks. At the same time| the growth rate of the cyclones increases in areas upstream of these regions. For the regions with the increasing growth rate| a high correlation is seen between the growth rate of the surface cyclones and upper-tropospheric zonal wind at a monthly-mean time scale. Months of high cyclone growth rate with strong zonal wind in these regions become more frequent| and months of low cyclone growth rate with weak zonal wind become less frequent. One of the possibilities that can explain this relationship is changes in the wave-breaking pattern| that is| a decrease in wave breakings in areas of cyclonic shear and an increase in wave breakings in areas of anticyclonic shear. Associated with these changes| rapid cyclone developments are more commonly seen| and weak| long-lived cyclones become less frequent. 12136,2011,4,3,Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways,Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O depend on their background concentrations| the removal of CO(2) is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks| and atmospheric residence times of CH(4) and N(2)O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO(2)| which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs| and specifically the GWPs of CH(4) and N(2)O| along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO(2) decreases under all RCPs| although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH(4) would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N(2)O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs| or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions| such as global temperature change potentials. 12633,2011,2,3,Future changes in the East Asian rain band projected by global atmospheric models with 20-km and 60-km grid size,Global warming projection experiments were conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model| focusing on the change in the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon. To assess the uncertainty of climate change projections| we performed ensemble simulations with the 60-km resolution model combining four different SSTs and three atmospheric initial conditions. In the present-day climate simulations| the 20-km model reproduces the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon better than lower resolution models in terms of geographical distribution and seasonal march. In the future climate simulation by the 20-km model| precipitation increases over the Yangtze River valley in May through July| Korean peninsula in May| and Japan in July. The termination of rainy season over Japan tends to be delayed until August. Ensemble simulations by the 60-km model show that precipitation in the future climate for July increases over the Yangtze River valley| the East China Sea and Japan. These changes in precipitation are partly consistent with those projected by the 20-km model. Simulations by the 20-km and 60-km models consistently show that in the future climate the termination of rainy season over Japan tends to be delayed until August. The changes in the vertically integrated water vapor flux show the intensification of clockwise moisture transport over the western Pacific subtropical high. Most precipitation changes over the East Asia can be interpreted as the moisture convergence resulting from change in the horizontal transport of water vapor. 3448,2011,2,2,Future climate and changes in flow patterns in Czech headwater catchments,The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of anticipated global climate change on runoff and evapotranspiration in small-forested catchments. The investigated Lysina and Pluhuv Bor catchments are situated in the Slavkov Forest in western Czech Republic. To forecast hydrological patterns for the period 2071-2100| outputs from 2 general circulation models| HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3| were downscaled using 3 regional climate models (RCM; RCAO| CHRM| HIRHAM) under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios). Corrected RCM daily outputs were used in combination with the hydrological model Brook90. Annual runoff is projected to decline by 10 to 30%| and impacts on the distribution of monthly flow are projected to be significant| with summer-autumn decreases of 30 to 95%| and winter increases of up to similar to 40% compared to mean discharge for the period 1967-1990. Mean daily flows are estimated to decrease by similar to 70% from August to November. These changes would have serious ecological consequences since streams could regularly dry up for short periods. 12557,2011,2,3,Future climate and runoff projections across New South Wales| Australia: results and practical applications,This paper describes the rainfall-runoff modelling for New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) under historical climate and the likely changes to runoff around the year 2030 for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES A1B global warming scenario. Results show that the mean annual historical rainfall and runoff| averaged over the entire region| are 516 and 55 mm| respectively. There is considerable uncertainty in the global climate modelling (GCM) of rainfall response in the region to global warming. The majority of GCMs show a decrease in the mean annual rainfall and the median estimate indicates that future mean annual runoff in the region in similar to 2030 relative to similar to 1990 will be lower by 0-20% in the southern parts| no change to a slight reduction in the eastern parts and higher by 0-20% in the northwest corner. Averaged across the entire region| the median estimate is a 5% decrease in the mean annual runoff and the extreme estimates range from a 14% decrease to a 10% increase in mean annual runoff. This is the first comprehensive study on the hydrological impacts of climate change done in NSW that covers the entire state. Outputs from this study are being used to underpin the hydrology for a number of major climate change impact studies that are presently underway across NSW. The results and output datasets from this study will be available through a web interface and they can be used by all state government agencies and industries in NSW to plan for and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 3412,2011,2,4,Future distribution modelling: A stitch in time is not enough,The last two decades have seen an increasing number of studies assessing the impact of climate change upon biodiversity. A central assumption underpinning research into the potential future habitat of terrestrial biota is that species are presently in equilibrium with their environments and that quantitative climate models adequately represent the distribution of species. Recently| many alarming predictions have emerged concerning the extinction and redistribution of species. Here| we show that even large-scale models of the climatic niche dimensions of species are temporally variable. Distributional models were developed for Salix (willow) species occurring in the province of Ontario| Canada| using three historical climate data sets. Although historical data very accurately represented the distributions of willows| the inherent variability within the models of species based on different periods greatly influenced the direction and magnitude of projected distributional change. We expose a fundamental uncertainty with respect to predicting the responses of species to climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3501,2011,4,4,Future research priorities for animal production in a changing world,This paper reports the outcomes from an International Workshop on 'Animal Production in a Changing World' held in Clermont-Ferrand (INRA-Theix| France) on 9-10 September 2009 in which 35 participants from 15 different countries participated. The main objective was to discuss the main challenges within the livestock sector: its environmental impact and role in global climate change; balancing the need for increased production of animal products coupled with a lower footprint and addressing societal needs in terms of product quality for the consumer. Five key lectures presented the main drivers of animal agriculture: population growth| environmental impact| mitigation and adaptation options| efficiency of production and quality of animal products. The key lectures highlighted the synergies between research needs and strategies dedicated to improving food quality and safety and those devoted to decreasing the environmental impact of ruminant livestock production. After the lectures two discussion groups were set up to discuss the main research priorities in relation to reducing environmental footprint and improving product quality. The main remarks from the group working on product quality were that the existing knowledge is not fully applied| the priorities with regards to quality differ between developing and developed countries and that| as one component in assessing food quality| an environmental index needs to be established taking into account carbon footprint| water and energy use. The discussion within the group working on environmental issues highlighted the importance of focusing on whole life cycle analysis in the mitigation area| while the adaptation strategy should be based on selection for profitable animals under different production systems. In summary| a fundamental shift in designing our production systems is required to help ensure present needs for animal products are met without compromising future generations. 12023,2011,2,4,Future wave climate over the west-European shelf seas,In this paper| we investigate changes in the wave climate of the west-European shelf seas under global warming scenarios. In particular| climate change wind fields corresponding to the present (control) time-slice 1961-2000 and the future (scenario) time-slice 2061-2100 are used to drive a wave generation model to produce equivalent control and scenario wave climate. Yearly and seasonal statistics of the scenario wave climates are compared individually to the corresponding control wave climate to identify relative changes of statistical significance between present and future extreme and prevailing wave heights. Using global| regional and linked global-regional wind forcing over a set of nested computational domains| this paper further demonstrates the sensitivity of the results to the resolution and coverage of the forcing. It suggests that the use of combined forcing from linked global and regional climate models of typical resolution and coverage is a good option for the investigation of relative wave changes in the region of interest of this study. Coarse resolution global forcing alone leads to very similar results over regions that are highly exposed to the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast| fine resolution regional forcing alone is shown to be insufficient for exploring wave climate changes over the western European waters because of its limited coverage. Results obtained with the combined global-regional wind forcing showed some consistency between scenarios. In general| it was shown that mean and extreme wave heights will increase in the future only in winter and only in the southwest of UK and west of France| north of about 44-45 degrees N. Otherwise| wave heights are projected to decrease| especially in summer. Nevertheless| this decrease is dominated by local wind waves whilst swell is found to increase. Only in spring do both swell and local wind waves decrease in average height. 12370,2011,3,4,Gap-free fibre laser welding of Zn-coated steel on Al alloy for light-weight automotive applications,As a result of new policies related to global warming announced by the European Union| avoiding unnecessary energy waste and reducing environmental pollution levels are becoming a major issue in the automotive industry. Accordingly| the lap welding of Zn-coated steels process| which is commonly used for producing car doors| has been gradually developed to lap welding of Zn-coated steel to light materials| such as Al alloy| Mg alloy and composite materials| in order to effectively reduce the vehicle weight. In certain part of car manufacture| organic glues are used to temporally join the Zn-coated steels and Al alloys before permanent welding takes place. The stability of such temporary joining by glues needs improving. Laser "stitching" or low strength welding could be considered as an alternative. However| challenges exist in joining Zn-coated steel on Al alloy by laser welding| due to significant differences of material properties between the two welding materials. Porosity| spatter and intermetallic brittle phases are readily produced in the weld. In this study| the effects of welding speed| laser power| number of the welding passes and type of shielding gas in gap-free welding of Zn-coated steel on Al alloy were investigated using a 1 kW single mode continuous wave fibre laser. Results show that a weld with higher shear strengths in the laser stitching application and less intermetallic phases could be obtained when nitrogen gas was used as the shielding gas. The corrosion resistance and the surface finish of the weld could be improved in double pass welding| especially when argon gas was used as the shielding gas. Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3317,2011,2,4,Gas exchange and water relations of spring wheat under full-season infrared warming,Gas exchange and water relations were evaluated under full-season in situ infrared (IR) warming for hard red spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yecora Rojo) grown in an open field in a semiarid desert region of the southwest USA. A temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) apparatus utilizing IR heaters maintained canopy air temperature above 3.0 m Heated plots of wheat by 1.3 and 2.7 degrees C (0.2 and 0.3 degrees C below the targeted set-points of Reference plots with dummy heaters) during daytime and nighttime| respectively. Control plots had no apparatus. Every 6 weeks during 2007-2009 wheat was sown under the three warming treatments (i.e.| Control| Heated| Reference) in three replicates in a 3 x 3 Latin square (LSQ) design on six plantings during 4 months (i.e.| January| March| September| December)| or in a natural temperature variation treatment (i.e.| Control) in three replicates in a randomized complete block (RCB) design on nine plantings during 7 months (i.e.| January| February| April| June| July| August| October). Soil temperature (T(s)) and volumetric soil-water content (theta(s)) were 1.3 degrees C warmer and 14% lower in Heated compared with Reference plots| respectively. Other than a 1% shading effect| no artifacts on gas exchange or water relations were associated with the IR warming apparatus. IR warming increased carbon gain characteristic of an increase in metabolic rates to higher temperature that may have been attributed to the well-watered wheat crop and the supplemental irrigation that minimized plant-to-air water vapor pressure differences between IR-warmed and nonwarmed plots. Nevertheless| seasonal oscillations in the IR warming response on carbon gain occurred. IR warming decreased leaf water status and provided thermal protection during freeze events. IR warming is an effective experimental methodology to investigate the impact of global climate change on agronomic cropping and natural ecosystems to a wide range of natural and artificially imposed air temperatures. 12305,2011,2,3,Gene expression profiling of rice grown in free air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) and elevated soil temperature,Rising atmospheric CO(2) concentration is accompanied by global warming. However| interactive effects of elevated CO(2) and soil temperature have not been well studied in plants. Here| we studied the effects of free air CO(2) enrichment (FACE| ambient +20 Pa)| elevated soil temperature (+2 degrees C)| or a combination of both on gene expression in developing 10th and fully expanded flag leaves of rice by microarray. Gene expression was significantly affected by FACE and 400-600 up-regulated or down-regulated genes were identified in each experimental condition. Overall| elevated soil temperature was likely to increase the number of differently expressed genes. Among them| only 31 up-regulated and 83 down-regulated genes were common irrespective of the leaf stage and soil temperature. These included up-regulation of sucrose transporter and fructosyltransferase and down-regulation of chlorophyll a/b binding protein| nitrate transporter and aquaporin| though most of differently expressed genes were functionally unknown. Although there were some exceptions| the expression of most of primary metabolism genes was not significantly altered by FACE. The expression of genes related to CO(2) fixation such as Rubisco and carbonic anhydrase were down-regulated| whereas a large proportion of genes related to sucrose synthesis| glycolysis| TCA cycle and N fixation were up-regulated under FACE| though changes were small in all cases. These results might reflect the transcriptional adaptation of metabolism to FACE| reducing the CO(2) fixation capacity and stimulating the dark respiration. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12584,2011,3,3,General Anesthetic Gases and the Global Environment,General anesthetics are administered to approximately 50 million patients each year in the United States. Anesthetic vapors and gases are also widely used in dentists' offices| veterinary clinics| and laboratories for animal research. All the volatile anesthetics that are currently used are halogenated compounds destructive to the ozone layer. These halogenated anesthetics could have potential significant impact on global warming. The widely used anesthetic gas nitrous oxide is a known greenhouse gas as well as an important ozone-depleting gas. These anesthetic gases and vapors are primarily eliminated through exhalation without being metabolized in the body| and most anesthesia systems transfer these gases as waste directly and unchanged into the atmosphere. Little consideration has been given to the ecotoxicological properties of gaseous general anesthetics. Our estimation using the most recent consumption data indicates that the anesthetic use of nitrous oxide contributes 3.0% of the total emissions in the United States. Studies suggest that the influence of halogenated anesthetics on global warming will be of increasing relative importance given the decreasing level of chlorofluorocarbons globally. Despite these nonnegligible pollutant effects of the anesthetics| no data on the production or emission of these gases and vapors are publicly available. The primary goal of this article is to critically review the current data on the potential effects of general anesthetics on the global environment and to describe possible alternatives and new technologies that may prevent these gases from being discharged into the atmosphere. (Anesth Analg 2011;112:213-7) 3443,2011,2,4,Genetic and phenotypic variation of the malaria vector Anopheles atroparvus in southern Europe,Background: There is a growing concern that global climate change will affect the potential for pathogen transmission by insect species that are vectors of human diseases. One of these species is the former European malaria vector| Anopheles atroparvus. Levels of population differentiation of An. atroparvus from southern Europe were characterized as a first attempt to elucidate patterns of population structure of this former malaria vector. Results are discussed in light of a hypothetical situation of re-establishment of malaria transmission. Methods: Genetic and phenotypic variation was analysed in nine mosquito samples collected from five European countries| using eight microsatellite loci and geometric morphometrics on 21 wing landmarks. Results: Levels of genetic diversity were comparable to those reported for tropical malaria vectors. Low levels of genetic (0.004 < F(ST) < 0.086) and phenotypic differentiation were detected among An. atroparvus populations spanning over 3|000 km distance. Genetic differentiation (0.202 < F(ST) < 0.299) was higher between the sibling species An. atroparvus and Anopheles maculipennis s.s. Differentiation between sibling species was not so evident at the phenotype level. Conclusions: Levels of population differentiation within An. atroparvus were low and not correlated with geographic distance or with putative physical barriers to gene flow (Alps and Pyrenees). While these results may suggest considerable levels of gene flow| other explanations such as the effect of historical population perturbations can also be hypothesized. 11550,2011,3,4,Genetic parameters for predicted methane production and potential for reducing enteric emissions through genomic selection,Mitigation of enteric methane (CH(4)) emission in ruminants has become an important area of research because accumulation of CH(4) is linked to global warming. Nutritional and microbial opportunities to reduce CH(4) emissions have been extensively researched; but little is known about using natural variation to breed animals with lower CH(4) yield. Measuring CH(4) emission rates directly from animals is difficult and hinders direct selection on reduced CH(4) emission. However| improvements can be made through selection on associated traits (e.g.; residual feed intake| RFI) or through selection on CH(4) predicted from feed intake and diet composition. The objective was to establish phenotypic and genetic variation in predicted CH(4) output| and to determine the potential of genetics to reduce methane emissions in dairy cattle. Experimental data were used and records on daily feed intake; weekly body weights| and weekly milk production were available from 548 heifers. Residual feed intake (MJ/d) is the difference between net energy intake and calculated net energy requirements for maintenance as a function of body weight and for fat- and protein-corrected milk production. Predicted methane emission (PME; g/d) is 6% of gross energy intake (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change methodology) corrected for energy content of methane (55.65 kJ/g). The estimated heritabilities for PME and RFI were 0.35 and 0.40| respectively. The positive genetic correlation between RFT and PME indicated that cows with lower RFI have lower PME (estimates ranging from 0.18 to 0.84). Hence| it is possible to decrease the methane production of a cow by selecting more-efficient cows; and the genetic variation suggests that reductions in the order of 11 to 26% in 10 yr are theoretically possible| and could be even higher in a genomic selection program. However| several uncertainties are discussed; for example| the lack of true methane measurements (and the key assumption that methane produced per unit feed is not affected by RFI level)| as well as the limitations of predicting the biological consequences of selection. To overcome these limitations| an international effort is required to bring together data on feed intake and methane emissions of dairy cows. 3268,2011,2,4,Genetic variation in cue sensitivity involved in avian timing of reproduction,1. Annual variation in the timing of avian reproduction is associated with predictive cues related to ambient temperature. Understanding how these cues affect timing| and estimating the genetic variation in sensitivity to these cues| is essential to predict the micro-evolutionary changes in timing which are needed to adapt to climate change. 2. We carried out a 2-year experiment with great tits Parus major of known genetic background| which were kept in pairs in climate-controlled aviaries with simulated natural photoperiod and exposed to a seasonal change in temperature| where the two treatments differed by 4 degrees C. We recorded the dates of laying the first and last eggs and timing of moult| as well as physiological proxies associated with reproduction: plasma luteinizing hormone (LH)| prolactin| and gonadal size at four-weekly intervals. 3. The temperature treatments did not affect first-egg dates| nor gonadal growth or plasma LH and prolactin concentrations. However| birds terminated egg laying| regressed their testes and started their moult earlier at higher temperatures. 4. There were marked family differences in both the start of egg laying| with sisters from early laying maternal families laying early| and in the termination of laying| indicating that there is heritable variation in sensitivity to cues involved in timing. 5. Our experiment| the first to use genetically related individuals in an experimental design with a natural change in photoperiod and biologically realistic temperature differences| thus shows that genetic adaptation in cue sensitivity is possible| essential for species to be able to adapt to a warming world. 3155,2011,2,4,Genetic variation in productivity of foundation riparian species at the edge of their distribution: implications for restoration and assisted migration in a warming climate,We examined the hypothesis that genotypic variation among populations of commonly co-occurring phreatophytic trees (Populus fremontii| Salix gooddingii) and the shrub (Salix exigua) regulates aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) at a hot site at the edge of the species' distribution. We used a provenance trial in which replicated genotypes from populations varying in mean annual temperature were transplanted to a common garden adjacent to the Lower Colorado River in southeastern California. The garden environment represented an extreme maximum temperature for the study species. Four major findings emerged: (1) Genotypic variation in ANPP was significant for all species with broad-sense heritability (H(2)) across populations of 0.11| 0.13| and 0.10 for P. fremontii| S. gooddingii| and S. exigua| respectively| and within-population H(2) ranging from 0.00 to 0.25| 0.00 to 0.44| and 0.02 to 0.21| respectively. (2) Population ANPP decreased linearly as mean annual maximum temperature (MAMT) transfer distance increased for both P. fremontii (r(2) = 0.64) and S. gooddingii (r(2) = 0.37)| whereas it did not change for S. exigua; (3) Populations with similar MAMT to that of the common garden were 1.5 and 1.2 times more productive than populations with 5.0 degrees C MAMT transfer distances for P. fremontii and S. gooddingii| respectively; and (4) Variation in regression slopes among species for the relationship between ANPP and MAMT indicate species-specific responses to temperature. As these plant species characterize a threatened habitat type and support a diverse community that includes endangered species| ecosystem restoration programs should consider using both local genotypes and productive genotypes from warmer environments to maximize productivity of riparian ecosystems in the face of global climate change. 12164,2011,4,4,Geodetic Constraints on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Present-Day Geophysical Processes,The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the largest and the highest area in the world with distinct and competing surface and subsurface processes. The entire Plateau has been undergoing crustal deformation and accompanying isostatic uplift as a result of the Cenozoic collision of the Indian and Eurasian continents. Regional secular surface mass changes include the melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps| and permafrost layer degradation due to global warming. There is also a plausible effect of glacial isostatic adjustment due to the removal of a possible Pleistocene ice-sheet. In this article| we present an assessment of the sizes and extents of these competing interior and exterior dynamical processes| and their possible detections using contemporary space geodetic techniques. These techniques include| in addition to GPS| satellite radar altimetry over land| and temporal gravity field measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. These techniques are complementary: land satellite altimetry| similar to GPS| is sensitive only to surface uplift| whereas GRACE is sensitive to both surface uplift and mass changes inside the Earth. Each process may dominate the others in a particular region. Our analysis shows that GRACE data are more sensitive (than GPS or land altimetry) to hydrologic and meteorology signals| some of which are larger than the combined effect of geodynamic processes and permafrost degradation. 12130,2011,2,4,Geology and climate conditions affect more humus forms than forest canopies at large scale in temperate forests,We investigated by linear gradient analysis (RDA) the relationships between forest humus forms (9 humus forms and the Humus Index) and 148 variables describing geology\}| climate| soil type| geography and the floristic composition of forest canopies| using 3441 plots of the EcoPI ant database covering the whole French territory. Among these variables| geology (alkaline vs acidic substrate) and climate (warm/dry vs cold/rainy) were the major determinants of humus forms| scaling mull humans forms from eumull to dysmull and opposing them to mor/moder| while the contribution of tree canopies was negligible. This trend was verified by partial RDA with environment or abundance of tree species from forest canopy as co-factors. The original position of amphi was confirmed: it was the only humus form not included in the gradient of increasing biological activity ordinated according to climate and geology. Results and possible forecasts of humus forms according to global warming were discussed to the light of existing aknowledge. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12535,2011,3,2,Getting biofuels on the green and narrow path: why we must get advanced biofuels started and started in the right way,We need every tool we can get our hands on in the fight against global warming; a truly low-carbon liquid fuel is clearly a tool we cannot give up lightly and arguably a tool we cannot do without. Unfortunately| our current policies do not require or reward broadly sustainably and truly low-carbon biomass. What's more| the small policy steps forward are under atttack and the comprehensive policy solutions are not even being debated. As a result| any supply estimate that does not start by identifying the policies that would guide the market to choose sustainably managed feedstocks in sustainable quantities can be nothing more than a proof of concept| technical assessment. These estimates are misleadingly high in the current policy climate. Nevertheless to stop global warming we must try to get the right policies in place and with an aggressive package of policies| they might actually turn out to be low. A modest proposal for a billion gallon challenge with rich incentives and rigorous environmental requirements (perhaps building of voluntary sustainability certification standards such as the Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels) is offered as a way to launch the advanced biofuels industry on the right track in a way will build public support. 12406,2011,3,3,GIS-Based Estimation of Global Carbon Sequestration Potential Due to Forest Management,Biomass utilization is one of the most important methods for global warming mitigation from the viewpoints of both carbon sequestration and carbon-neutral energy use. Carbon sequestration potential should result from phytomass stock expansion| and in this study| the potential of phytomass stock expansion due to afforestation/rehabilitation with additional special water management was estimated by using several sets of global geographical information systems (GIS) data. The estimation was conducted under unified conditions for all the world areas by using a computer program based on the GIS data. The carbon sequestration potential of a land area was assumed to be primarily determined by its precipitation level if the area satisfied certain meteorological and geographical conditions for phytomass stock expansion| such as land use| temperature| slope| and soil type| and the sensitivities of these conditions were studied. The carbon sequestration potential due to regular afforestation/rehabilitation was estimated to be about 169 GtC in the world| and the effective regions for carbon sequestration were Brazil| etc. On the other hand| the increase in the carbon sequestration potential due to the additional special water management was estimated to be about 21 GtC in the world| and the effective regions were Saudi Arabia| west Australia| etc. 12162,2011,2,4,Glacier retreat and climate change: Documenting the last 50 years of Alpine glacier history from area and geometry changes of Dosde Piazzi glaciers (Lombardy Alps| Italy),The recent rapid mass loss of mountain glaciers in response to climate warming has been reported for high and low latitudes all over the Earth. The paper analyses and discusses the recent evolution of a representative glacierized group within the Italian Alps| the Piazzi-DosdS| where small glaciers are experiencing considerable retreat and shrinking. We analysed aerial photos to calculate area and geometry changes in the time window 1954-2003| and glaciological and geomorphological surveys were also performed. The estimated area change during 1954-2003 was -3.97 km(2) (-51% of the area coverage in 1954). Area reduction increased more recently: area change during 1991-2003 (12 years) was -1.74 km(2)| against -0.67 km(2) during 1981-1991 (10 years)| and -1.57 km (2) during 1954-1981 (27 years). Moreover| analysis of the most recent orthophotos acquired during the summer of 2003 under exceptional conditions (i.e. total absence of snow cover) allowed observation and mapping of changes affecting glacier shape and morphology| including growing rock outcrops| tongue separations| formation of proglacial lakes| increasing supraglacial debris and collapse structures. Such processes cause positive feedbacks that accelerate further glacier disintegration once they appear. From a geodynamical perspective| the DosdS Piazzi is now experiencing transition from a glacial system to a paraglacial one; areas where in the past the shaping and driving factors were glaciers are now subject to the action of melting water| slope evolution and periglacial processes. 12740,2011,2,4,GLIMATE CHANGES AND NEMATODES: EXPECTED EFFECTS AND PERSPECTIVES FOR PLANT PROTECTION,Some factors interfering with plant protection from phytoparasitic nematodes are reviewed in the light of changes brought about by the global warming in action. The mechanisms mainly concern changes in temperature and water regimes. The effects of climate changes on the epidemiology and management of the main phytoparasitic species occurring in Mediterranean environments include the alteration of the reproductive cycles due to plants productivity| the geographic dispersion by more northern or higher altitude shifts| the spread of vectors. Other related indirect mechanisms are feedback effects due to the reactions of cultivated species or weeds| and those related to natural enemies. The potential management of some operational tools are briefly discussed| including the development and application of models and monitoring. An exemple of modeling changes induced by increasing temperatures on the carrot cyst nematode Heterodera carotae is briefly discussed.
12594,2011,2,4,Global change impacts on groundwater in Southern Germany-Part 1: Natural aspects,In order to account for complex interactions between humans climate and the water cycle| the research consortium GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) has developed the simulation system DANUBIA which consists of 17 coupled models. DANUBIA was applied to investigate various impacts of global-change between 2011 and 2060 in the Upper Danube Catchment. This article represents part 1 of an article series and describes groundwater and natural aspects of the investigations| while part 2 describes socio-economic aspects (Barthel et al. in Grundwaser 16(4)| doi:10.1007/s00767-011-0180-y| 2011). Here we describe concepts of GLOWA-Danube and DANUBIA as well as groundwater-related model components. This leads to selected simulation results for water balance| groundwater quantity and quality. The chosen scenarios show decreasing precipitation| increasing temperatures| and changes in the annual distribution that lead to significant decreases in groundwater recharge. Regional predictions of groundwater quality were difficult to achieve because of complex soil and groundwater processes. However| climatic change will probably have little impact. 12595,2011,2,4,Global change impacts on groundwater in Southern Germany-Part 2: Socioeconomic aspects,In order to account for complex interactions between humans climate and the water cycle| the research consortium GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) has developed the simulation system DANUBIA which consists of 17 coupled models. DANUBIA was applied to investigate various impacts of global-change between 2011 and 2060 in the Upper Danube Catchment. This article describes part 2 of an article series with investigations of socio-economic aspects| while part 1 (Barthel et al. in Grundwasser 16(4)| doi:10.1007/s007-011-01794| 2011) deals with natural-spatial aspects. The principles of socioeconomic actor-modeling and interactions between socioeconomic and natural science model components are described here. We present selected simulations that show impacts on groundwater from changes in agriculture| tourism| economy| domestic water users and water supply. Despite decreases in water consumption| the scenario simulations show significant decreases in groundwater quantity. On the other hand| groundwater quality will likely be influenced more severely by land use changes compared to direct climatic causes. However| overall changes will not be dramatic. 12733,2011,2,3,Global Climate Change and Aspects of Regional Climate Change in the Berlin-Brandenburg Region,To obtain an estimate of the average temperature of the northern hemisphere during the last 1200 years| proxy data have been merged with instrumental recordings. These instrumental measurements are| with a few exceptions| only available for the recent 150 years. In the city of Berlin the temperature has been recorded since as early as 1701. However| during the first 150 years the measurements were problematic as location| measurement procedure and instruments changed frequently and without proper documentation. From 1847 onwards observations became more reliable once the Royal Prussian Meteorological Institute had been established. For the last 100 years temperature and precipitation measurements have been performed in parallel at Berlin-Dahlem and Potsdam. The datasets recorded in the city of Berlin and in Berlin-Dahlem have been merged to obtain a record of more than 300 years. It indicates that the temperature of Berlin has risen by 1.04 degrees C during the last 100 years after correcting for the urbanisation effect. In the same period| the total number of frost days has significantly decreased by almost 17 days| and the number of summer days has significantly increased by about 12 days. Annual mean precipitation has hardly changed (decrease less than 0.2 %) during the last century. However| rainfall has decreased by about 4 % in summer and increased by 3 % in winter. All precipitation changes are below the 95 % significance level. Model projections indicate that warming will continue which means that Berlin-Brandenburg will experience a temperature rise of about 3-3.5 degrees C by the end of this century for the IPCC scenario A1B. For the same scenario precipitation is expected to increase by 10-20 % in winter and to decrease by 10-30 % in summer: The seasonal precipitation changes compensate each other resulting in an almost unchanged annual mean. 3342,2011,2,4,Global climate change and its impacts on water resources planning and management: assessment and challenges,Population explosion and its many associated effects (e.g. urbanization| water pollution| deforestation) have already caused enormous stress on the world's fresh water resources and| in turn| environment| health| and economy. According to latest World Health Organization estimates| about 900 million people still lack access to safe drinking water| about 2.5 billion people lack access to proper sanitation| millions of people die every year from water-related disasters and diseases| and economic losses in the order of billions of dollars occur due to water-related disasters. With the global climate change anticipated to have threatening consequences on our water resources and environment both at the global level and at local/regional levels (e.g. increases in the number and magnitude of floods and droughts| increases in sea levels)| a general assessment is that the future state of our water resources will be a lot worse than it is now. The facts that over 300 rivers around the world are being shared by two or more nation states and that there are already numerous conflicts in the planning| development| and management of water resources in these basins further complicate matters for future water resources planning. In view of these| any sincere effort towards proper management of our future water resources and resolving potential future water-related conflicts will need to overcome many challenges. These challenges are both biophysical science-related and human science-related. The biophysical science challenges include: identification of the actual causes of climate change| development of global climate models (GCMs) that can adequately incorporate these causes to generate dependable future climate projections at larger scales| formulation of appropriate techniques to downscale the GCM outputs to local conditions for hydrologic predictions| and reliable estimation of the associated uncertainties in all these. The human science challenges have social| political| economic| and environmental facets that often act in an interconnected manner; proper 'communication' of (or lack thereof) our climate-water 'scientific' research activities to fellow scientists and engineers| policy makers| economists| industrialists| farmers| and the public at large crucially contributes to these challenges. The present study is intended to review the current state of our water resources and the climate change problem and to detail the challenges in dealing with the potential impacts of climate change on our water resources. 12705,2011,2,4,Global climate change and small mammal populations in north-central Chile,Since 1989 we have monitored small mammal populations at a semiarid site in north-central Chile with a large-scale livetrapping grid complex. Selective exclusions of vertebrate predators or putative small mammal competitors| or both| have yielded relatively small or mostly transitory effects| or both| on small mammal population dynamics and plant community composition. During the study period 5 El Nino-high rainfall episodes have occurred lasting 1-3 years. Resident or core small mammals such as Abrothrix olivaceus| Phyllotis darwini| and Octodon degus experience dramatic fluctuations during and following rainfall pulses. Temporary resident or opportunistic species such as Oligoryzomys longicaudatus and A. longipilis disappear from the thorn scrub for varying periods of time. All species persist in more mesic nearby habitats near dry stream courses (aguadas). Since a 3-year high rainfall event in 2000-2002 mean annual rainfall has increased in this region| mainly due to a lack of prolonged droughts. Under these conditions| and building on a qualitative model proposed by Noy-Meir| long-lived species might become more abundant. Changes in the small mammal assemblage are consistent with these predictions; O. degus| a caviomorph rodent with a long life span| now comprises a more constant proportion of the small mammal biomass in the thorn scrub| and we have documented reduced variation in species diversity. Increased rainfall| a predicted consequence of global climate change in this region| might be leading to changes in small mammal assemblage structure and composition and ultimately will result in a more stable| less oscillatory assemblage in the thorn scrub. Additionally| invasive groups such as introduced lagomorphs and ephemeral plants might become more abundant in this community. The long-term consequences of changes in rainfall patterns due to El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSOs)| with important teleconnections to global-scale phenomena| will lead to diverse changes at the community level here. 3461,2011,3,3,Global Climate Change and the Industrial Animal Agriculture Link: The Construction of Risk,This paper examines discourses of stakeholders regarding global climate change to assess whether and how they construct industrial animal agriculture as posing a risk. The analysis assesses whether these discourses have shifted since the release of Livestock's Long Shadow| a report by the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization| which indicated that the industrial animal agriculture sector as a whole contributes more to global climate change than the transportation sector. Using Ulrich Beck's theorizing of the "risk society|" this paper examines how various animal rights and welfare groups| environmental organizations| meat industry stakeholders| governmental agencies| and newspapers in Canada| the United States| and internationally investigate and construct industrial animal agriculture as a risk| if at all| and how their respective discourses conflict. The findings indicate that while some stakeholders acknowledge industrial animal agriculture's contribution to global climate change| for the most part the problematization of animal agriculture has not increased since the release of Livestock's Long Shadow| and the animal agriculture industry has seemingly not lost its power to "rationalize risk." 3282,2011,2,4,Global Climate Change and the Production of "Pequi" Fruits (Caryocar brasiliense) in the Brazilian Cerrado,Several recent studies have predicted decreased environmental suitability for species in future scenarios of climate change| which will affect the economy of many municipalities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of global climate change on environmental suitability for "Pequi" tree (Caryocar brasiliense; an economically important Cerrado fruit tree) and investigate the relationship between environmental suitability (according to an ecological niche model - ENM) and production of "Pequi" fruit in Brazilian cities. For the ENM| we used 312 occurrence points of "Pequi" tree and nine climatic variables to model current distribution and project it into future scenarios (scenario A2a for CCCma AOGCM). "Pequi" production averaged 30.89 kg/km(2)| and the Gross Internal Product at municipal level and "Pequi" production were negatively but marginally correlated (r = -0.16; P = 0.05 using Dutilleul's correction for spatial autocorrelation)| suggesting that poor municipalities tend to have more use of this natural resource. Future scenarios showed large losses of suitable environments for the species in 2050 in Central Brazil. There is also a significant positive correlation between environmental suitability in current time and "Pequi" production across municipalities (r = 0.382| P= 0.032). Our results suggest that municipality currently using "Pequi" fruit will have lower production in the future| because their regions will be less suitable for "Pequi" tree| which in turn may affect the local economies. Thus| it is necessary that governments develop policies that mitigate adverse impacts| enhance positive impacts| and supports adaptation to climate change| together with enhancing local food security. 12691,2011,2,3,Global climate change implications for coastal and offshore oil and gas development,The discussion and debate about climate change and oil and gas resource development has generally focused on how fossil fuel use affects the Earth's climate. This paper explores how the changing climate is likely to affect oil and gas operations in low-lying coastal areas and the outer continental shelf. Oil and gas production in these regions comprises a large sector of the economies of many energy producing nations. Six key climate change drivers in coastal and marine regions are characterized with respect to oil and gas development: changes in carbon dioxide levels and ocean acidity| air and water temperature| precipitation patterns| the rate of sea level rise| storm intensity| and wave regime. These key drivers have the potential to independently and cumulatively affect coastal and offshore oil and gas exploration| production| and transportation| and several impacts of climate change have already been observed in North America. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 3415,2011,2,4,GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED PARTICULARITIES IN THE RODNEI MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK,A series of aspects in the evolution and characteristic features of some environmental variables are clearly related to global climate change| some climatic variables being major indicators of this change-induced disturbances. In the Rodnei Mountains National Park| at the Weather Station Iezer| some manifestations of global warming are visible in the evolution of air temperature and of the quantity of precipitation| particularly in the warm season of the year. As significant is the effect of the variation in the major climate indicators connected directly with the thermal and/or precipitation regime. Some of the main indicators analyzed in this paper suggest that multi-annual mean temperatures and shower days are increasing| while the annual precipitation mean and snow pack thickness are decreasing| foggy days and liquid precipitation become more numerous| solid precipitation days being ever fewer. All these aspects are relevant of the extent to which the study-area is being affected by global climate change. 3508,2011,2,4,Global climate cycles and cyclones: consequences for rainfall patterns and lemur reproduction in southeastern Madagascar,Most studies that examine the influence of climatic change on flora and fauna have focused on northern latitudes; however| there is increasing recognition that tropical regions are also being affected. Despite this| regions such as Madagascar| which are rich in endemic biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climatic change| are poorly represented in studies examining the effects of climate variability on biota. We investigated how El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) influence precipitation patterns in the rainforest region of southeastern Madagascar (1962-2006) and then constructed models to assess the potential contribution of climatic variables on the reproductive parameters of the Milne Edward's sifaka| a threatened lemur species (Propithecus edwardsi)| over a 20-year period. The Southern Oscillation Index of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific was associated with precipitation patterns including wetter wet seasons during warmer phases and drier dry seasons following cooler phases. The best-supported models of lemur fecundity (female offspring per female that survive to 1 year of age per year) included cyclone presence during gestation and ENSO phase before conception and during the first 6 months of life. Models also suggested that heavy rains during gestation may limit birth rates and that prolonged drought during female lactation may limit first year offspring survival; although these variables were given little importance for predicting overall fecundity relative to ENSO phases and cyclone presence. Our results linking lemur reproduction with climatic variability suggest that climatic changes may be an additional threat to Madagascar's unique and already endangered flora and fauna. The association between precipitation in southeastern Madagascar and SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific suggests that dynamics of wildlife populations even in tropical areas such as Madagascar can be affected by global climate cycles making them potentially vulnerable to global climate change. 12828,2011,4,4,Global Climate Model projected changes in 10 m wind speed and direction due to anthropogenic climate change,Changes in wind due to global warming may have large geophysical and societal impacts. The 10 m winds from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 multi-model ensemble are assessed against reanalysis winds and found to exhibit lowest skill over land areas. Maps of future change in mean wind speed| direction and 99th percentile wind speed are presented to convey spatial information as well as the multi-model agreement on sign and magnitude of the change. The utility of these maps in providing context for the design of more detailed impact studies| for which wind is a required input| is discussed. Copyright (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society 12418,2011,3,4,Global cloud condensation nuclei influenced by carbonaceous combustion aerosol,Black carbon in carbonaceous combustion aerosol warms the climate by absorbing solar radiation| meaning reductions in black carbon emissions are often perceived as an attractive global warming mitigation option. However| carbonaceous combustion aerosol can also act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) so they also cool the climate by increasing cloud albedo. The net radiative effect of carbonaceous combustion aerosol is uncertain because their contribution to CCN has not been evaluated on the global scale. By combining extensive observations of CCN concentrations with the GLOMAP global aerosol model| we find that the model is biased low (normalised mean bias = -77%) unless carbonaceous combustion aerosol act as CCN. We show that carbonaceous combustion aerosol accounts for more than half (52-64%) of global CCN with the range due to uncertainty in the emitted size distribution of carbonaceous combustion particles. The model predicts that wildfire and pollution (fossil fuel and biofuel) carbonaceous combustion aerosol causes a global mean cloud albedo aerosol indirect effect of -0.34 W m(-2)| with stronger cooling if we assume smaller particle emission size. We calculate that carbonaceous combustion aerosol from pollution sources cause a global mean aerosol indirect effect of -0.23 W m(-2). The small size of carbonaceous combustion particles from fossil fuel sources means that whilst pollution sources account for only one-third of the emitted mass they cause two-thirds of the cloud albedo aerosol indirect effect that is due to carbonaceous combustion aerosol. This cooling effect must be accounted for| along with other cloud effects not studied here| to ensure that black carbon emissions controls that reduce the high number concentrations of fossil fuel particles have the desired net effect on climate. 3476,2011,4,4,Global cloud-layer distribution statistics from 1 year CALIPSO lidar observations,In this paper| the cloud statistics and global cloud distributions are derived from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) level 2| 5 km lidar cloud-layer products between 13 June 2006 and 24 June 2007. The global cloud-layer occurrence frequency| the horizontal and the vertical distributions of cloud-occurrence frequency| the global cloud-top height statistics and their seasonal changes are given for 1 year CALIPSO observations. Opaque cloud-layer statistics are analysed for better understanding the statistics of the clouds observed using CALIPSO. Parts of the results are compared with some results from the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) observations| the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) observations and the global rawinsonde observations| the Aqua MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) monthly cloud-fraction data. The comparisons show that results are in agreement with other observations. Due to the primary advance from the active optical sensing| CALIPSO lidar can offer measurements of accurate| highly resolved vertical profiles of atmospheric scattering layers. It has advantages in determining the location of optically thin clouds and detecting occurrences of multiple layers. Long-term observations by CALIPSO lidar can provide valuable information for the better understanding of the climate system and global climate change. 12227,2011,2,3,Global CO(2) rise leads to reduced maximum stomatal conductance in Florida vegetation,A principle response of C3 plants to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) (CO(2)) is to reduce transpirational water loss by decreasing stomatal conductance (g(s)) and simultaneously increase assimilation rates. Via this adaptation| vegetation has the ability to alter hydrology and climate. Therefore| it is important to determine the adaptation of vegetation to the expected anthropogenic rise in CO(2). Short-term stomatal opening-closing responses of vegetation to increasing CO(2) are described by free-air carbon enrichments growth experiments| and evolutionary adaptations are known from the geological record. However| to date the effects of decadal to centennial CO(2) perturbations on stomatal conductance are still largely unknown. Here we reconstruct a 34% (+/- 12%) reduction in maximum stomatal conductance (g(smax)) per 100 ppm CO2 increase as a result of the adaptation in stomatal density ( D) and pore size at maximal stomatal opening (a(max)) of nine common species from Florida over the past 150 y. The species-specific gsmax values are determined by different evolutionary development| whereby the angiosperms sampled generally have numerous small stomata and high gsmax| and the conifers and fern have few large stomata and lower gsmax. Although angiosperms and conifers use different D and amax adaptation strategies| our data show a coherent response in gsmax to CO(2) rise of the past century. Understanding these adaptations of C3 plants to rising CO(2) after decadal to centennial environmental changes is essential for quantification of plant physiological forcing at timescales relevant for global warming| and they are likely to continue until the limits of their phenotypic plasticity are reached. 11737,2011,4,4,Global distribution of a key trophic guild contrasts with common latitudinal diversity patterns,Most hypotheses explaining the general gradient of higher diversity toward the equator are implicit or explicit about greater species packing in the tropics. However| global patterns of diversity within guilds| including trophic guilds (i.e.| groups of organisms that use similar food resources)| are poorly known. We explored global diversity patterns of a key trophic guild in stream ecosystems| the detritivore shredders. This was motivated by the fundamental ecological role of shredders as decomposers of leaf litter and by some records pointing to low shredder diversity and abundance in the tropics| which contrasts with diversity patterns of most major taxa for which broad-scale latitudinal patterns haven been examined. Given this evidence| we hypothesized that shredders are more abundant and diverse in temperate than in tropical streams| and that this pattern is related to the higher temperatures and lower availability of high-quality leaf litter in the tropics. Our comprehensive global survey (129 stream sites from 14 regions on six continents) corroborated the expected latitudinal pattern and showed that shredder distribution (abundance| diversity and assemblage composition) was explained by a combination of factors| including water temperature (some taxa were restricted to cool waters) and biogeography (some taxa were more diverse in particular biogeographic realms). In contrast to our hypothesis| shredder diversity was unrelated to leaf toughness| but it was inversely related to litter diversity. Our findings markedly contrast with global trends of diversity for most taxa| and with the general rule of higher consumer diversity at higher levels of resource diversity. Moreover| they highlight the emerging role of temperature in understanding global patterns of diversity| which is of great relevance in the face of projected global warming.
3425,2011,2,4,Global features and trends of the tropopause derived from GPS/CHAMP RO data,The global characteristics and trends of the tropopause physical parameters| height and temperature| obtained from the GPS/CHAMP radio occultation (RO) data in the period from Jul. 2001 to Oct. 2008| were modeled and analyzed in this work. The global distribution and variation of these parameters with latitude were estimated and analyzed using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF)| which was introduced to reveal the possible relationship between the tropopause variations and global climate change. The tropopause height and temperature varied with latitude. The results obtained by using the Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis suggested a recent rise in tropopause height and decrease in tropopause temperature; and also partly supported the argument that the global rise in the tropopause is consistent with global climate change. These results also revealed that the tropopause height increased mainly in the Polar regions| particularly in the South Polar region| as well as the regions where human activity is relatively significant| and decreased in the areas that are sparsely populated or have less human activity| such as the tropic region and south hemisphere. This paper also confirms that the GPS/LEO RO data are more reliable and can be effectively used to analyze the tropopause physical parameters. 3368,2011,4,4,Global Land Surface Emissivity Retrieved From Satellite Ultraspectral IR Measurements,Ultraspectral resolution infrared (IR) radiances obtained from nadir observations provide information about the atmosphere| surface| aerosols| and clouds. Surface spectral emissivity (SSE) and surface skin temperature from current and future operational satellites can and will reveal critical information about the Earth's ecosystem and land-surface-type properties| which might be utilized as a means of long-term monitoring of the Earth's environment and global climate change. In this study| fast radiative transfer models applied to the atmosphere under all weather conditions are used for atmospheric profile and surface or cloud parameter retrieval from ultraspectral and/or hyperspectral spaceborne IR soundings. An inversion scheme| dealing with cloudy as well as cloud-free radiances observed with ultraspectral IR sounders| has been developed to simultaneously retrieve atmospheric thermodynamic and surface or cloud microphysical parameters. This inversion scheme has been applied to the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). Rapidly produced SSE is initially evaluated through quality control checks on the retrievals of other impacted surface and atmospheric parameters. Initial validation of retrieved emissivity spectra is conducted with Namib and Kalahari desert laboratory measurements. Seasonal products of global land SSE and surface skin temperature retrieved with IASI are presented to demonstrate seasonal variation of SSE. 11709,2011,2,4,Global ocean re-analyses for climate applications,One of the main objectives of the global ocean modelling activities at Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) is the production of global ocean re-analyses over multidecadal periods to reconstruct the state of the ocean and the large scale circulation over the recent past. The re-analyses are used for climate applications and for the assessment of the benefits of assimilating ocean observations on seasonal and longer predictions. Here we present the main characteristics of an optimal interpolation based assimilation system used to produce a set of global ocean re-analyses validated against a set of high quality in situ observations and independent data. Differences among the experiments of the set are analyzed in terms of improvements in the method used to assimilate the data and the quality of observations themselves. For example| the integrated ocean heat content| which can be taken as an indicator of climate changes| is examined to detect possible sources of uncertainty of its long-term changes. Global and basin scale upper ocean heat content exhibits warming trends over the last few decades that still depend in a significant way on the assimilated observations and the formulation of the background covariances. However| all the re-analyses show a global warming trend of the oceanic uppermost 700 m over the last five decades that falls within the range of the most recent observation-based estimates. The largest discrepancies between our estimates and observational based ones are confined in the upwelling regions of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Finally| the results show that the climatological heat and salt transports as a function of latitude also fall within the range of the estimates based on observations and atmospheric re-analyses. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11794,2011,3,4,Global Optimization of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Design and Allocation to Minimize Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions,We pose a reformulated model for optimal design and allocation of conventional (CV)| hybrid electric (HEV)| and plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) vehicles to obtain global solutions that minimize life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the fleet. The reformulation is a twice-differentiable| factorable| nonconvex mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model that can be solved globally using a convexification-based branch-and-reduce algorithm. We compare results to a randomized multistart local-search approach for the original formulation and find that local-search algorithms locate global solutions in 59% of trials for the two-segment case and 18% of trials for the three-segment case. The results indicate that minimum GHG emissions are achieved with a mix of PHEVs sized for 25-45 miles of electric travel. Larger battery packs allow longer travel on electrical energy| but production and weight of underutilized batteries result in higher GHG emissions. Under the current average U.S. grid mix| PHEVs offer a nearly 50% reduction in life cycle GHG emissions relative to equivalent conventional vehicles and about 5% improvement over HEVs when driven on the standard urban driving cycle. Optimal allocation of different PHEVs to different drivers turns out to be of second order importance for minimizing net life cycle GHGs. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4004538] 3447,2011,3,3,Global perspectives on first generation liquid biofuel production,Transport today is mostly sustained by liquid fossil fuels| despite the fact that the invention of the combustion engine started with biofuels. However| known environmental impacts and the instability of the fossil-fuel market have revived the status of biofuels. Some concerns have appeared regarding how emerging global climate changes will affect biofuels' feedstock production| since agriculture is strongly dependent on climate variables. Therefore| numerical models were introduced to calculate how temperature and precipitation could affect crop production for biodiesel and bioethanol production. Furthermore| 4 scenarios projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were put into the calculations. The results show that temperature has significant impact on feedstock production in all cases (P < 0.05)| while precipitation seems to be less significant. If the temperature increases by 6.4 degrees C as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts| production of bioethanol made from sugar beets will decrease by as much as 70%. For other feedstocks| the share of production decrease will be smaller. Only biodiesel made of soybean will be positively affected by a temperature increase. Since global climate change will have negative impacts on feedstock for biofuel production| it is a challenge to meet the projected increases in biofuels' share in the fuel market. 12824,2011,4,4,Global temperature evolution 1979-2010,We analyze five prominent time series of global temperature (over land and ocean) for their common time interval since 1979: three surface temperature records (from NASA/GISS| NOAA/NCDC and HadCRU) and two lower-troposphere (LT) temperature records based on satellite microwave sensors (from RSS and UAH). All five series show consistent global warming trends ranging from 0.014 to 0.018 K yr(-1). When the data are adjusted to remove the estimated impact of known factors on short-term temperature variations (El Nino/southern oscillation| volcanic aerosols and solar variability)| the global warming signal becomes even more evident as noise is reduced. Lower-troposphere temperature responds more strongly to El Nino/southern oscillation and to volcanic forcing than surface temperature data. The adjusted data show warming at very similar rates to the unadjusted data| with smaller probable errors| and the warming rate is steady over the whole time interval. In all adjusted series| the two hottest years are 2009 and 2010. 12367,2011,2,3,Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding,Tens of millions of people around the world are already exposed to coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Global warming has the potential to increase hurricane flooding| both by hurricane intensification and by sea level rise. In this paper| the impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise are evaluated using hydrodynamic surge models and by considering the future climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the Corpus Christi| Texas| United States study region| mean projections indicate hurricane flood elevation (meteorologically generated storm surge plus sea level rise) will| on average| rise by 0.3 m by the 2030s and by 0.8 m by the 2080s. For catastrophic-type hurricane surge events| flood elevations are projected to rise by as much as 0.5 m and 1.8 m by the 2030s and 2080s| respectively. 12207,2011,3,3,Global warming and its implication to emission reduction strategies for residential buildings,Carbon emission reduction schemes by improving residential building energy performance are often developed and assessed upon the assumption of current or stationary climates. This study investigated the heating and cooling (H-C) energy requirements and corresponding carbon emissions of residential houses in different climatic conditions in relation to global warming. This included assessing and quantifying the efficacy of emission reduction schemes based on emission reduction capacity (ERG). ERC represents the percentage of projected carbon emission reduction under changing climate in a specific year compared to the expected reduction by a scheme at current or stationary climates. It is shown that in a heating-dominated region with a cold climate or temperate climate with cold winter| ERC is projected to increase (or the projected emission reduction is higher than the expected reduction under the emission reduction scheme) in the presence of global warming. In contrast| in a cooling-dominated region with a hot dry or hot humid climate or an H-C balanced temperate climate| ERC is projected to decline. This implies that emission reductions will be lower than those initially targeted by the emission reduction scheme without consideration of global warming. Additionally| to reflect the changing carbon emission over years due to climate change| the average emission reduction capacity (AERC) was also proposed for the assessment of reduction schemes. It was concluded that the design and assessment of carbon emission reduction schemes for residential buildings need to move beyond its assumptions of a current or stationary climate to take into account climate change impacts. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11971,2011,2,2,Global Warming and Local Dimming: The Statistical Evidence,Two effects largely determine global warming: the well-known greenhouse effect and the less well-known solar radiation effect. An increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases contributes to global warming: the greenhouse effect. In addition| small particles| called aerosols| reflect and absorb sunlight in the atmosphere. More pollution causes an increase in aerosols| so that less sunlight reaches the Earth (global dimming). Despite its name| global dimming is primarily a local (or regional) effect. Because of the dimming the Earth becomes cooler: the solar radiation effect. Global warming thus consists of two components: the (global) greenhouse effect and the (local) solar radiation effect| which work in opposite directions. Only the sum of the greenhouse effect and the solar radiation effect is observed| not the two effects separately. Our purpose is to identify the two effects. This is important| because the existence of the solar radiation effect obscures the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. We propose a simple climate model with a small number of parameters. We gather data from a large number of weather stations around the world for the period 1959-2002. We then estimate the parameters using dynamic panel data methods| and quantify the parameter uncertainty. Next| we decompose the estimated temperature change of 0.73 degrees C (averaged over the weather stations) into a greenhouse effect of 1.87 degrees C| a solar radiation effect of -1.09 degrees C| and a small remainder term. Finally| we subject our findings to extensive sensitivity analyses. 11654,2011,3,4,Global warming contributions from alternative approaches to waste management in the Norwegian Armed Forces,Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions emanating from waste management practices in five Norwegian military camps were assessed. The GHG emission accounting practices examined included fuel provision upstream of a material recovery facility (MRF)| operational activities at the MRF| and downstream processes. The latter means recycling of waste compared to primary production using virgin materials| or the incineration of waste with energy recovery compared to heating based on the average energy mix for both EU and Norway. The results show that the operational activities at the MRF cause more GHG emissions than the provision of fuel upstream of the MRF (116 vs. 16-21 tonnes CO(2)-eq.| respectively). Furthermore| the downstream activities provided far greater avoidance of GHG emissions than the load caused by upstream activities and the activities at the MRF. Recycling proves to be beneficial over incineration of waste when compared to the EU energy mix (savings of -257 tonnes CO(2)-eq.)| and the advantage is even larger when compared to the average energy mix for Norway (savings of -779 tonnes CO(2)-eq.). In conclusion| the results show that sorting of mixed waste at military camp collection sites followed by recycling of the separated fractions at MRF would result in significant avoidance of GHG emissions| compared to the current practice of incineration with energy recovery of the mixed waste. 12626,2011,5,5,Global warming during the Roman era?,The high rate of increase in global temperature we are experiencing since the last century is commonly ascribed to industrial activities. However| the mean sea level variations inferred from the remnants of the Roman era suggest that a similar high rate of increase may have occurred more than 2|000 years ago. This issue is essentially based on two data points and is admittedly weak| but dismissing these as outliers seems unjustified since neither local geology nor the Italian seismic catalogs support a tectonic origin for such a high rate of vertical motion. On the contrary| independent data on both ocean sediments in the Sargasso Sea and dendrology favor repeated strong temperature oscillations with comparably large gradients in historic times. 12820,2011,2,3,Global Warming Effects on US Hurricane Damage,While many studies of the effects of global warming on hurricanes predict an increase in various metrics of Atlantic basin-wide activity| it is less clear that this signal will emerge from background noise in measures of hurricane damage| which depend largely on rare| high-intensity landfalling events and are thus highly volatile compared to basin-wide storm metrics. Using a recently developed hurricane synthesizer driven by large-scale meteorological variables derived from global climate models| 1000 artificial 100-yr time series of Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall along the U. S. Gulf and East Coasts are generated for four climate models and for current climate conditions as well as for the warmer climate of 100 yr hence under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenario A1b. These synthetic hurricanes damage a portfolio of insured property according to an aggregate wind-damage function; damage from flooding is not considered here. Assuming that the hurricane climate changes linearly with time| a 1000-member ensemble of time series of property damage was created. Three of the four climate models used produce increasing damage with time| with the global warming signal emerging on time scales of 40| 113| and 170 yr| respectively. It is pointed out| however| that probabilities of damage increase significantly well before such emergence time scales and it is shown that probability density distributions of aggregate damage become appreciably separated from those of the control climate on time scales as short as 25 yr. For the fourth climate model| damages decrease with time| but the signal is weak. 11693,2011,2,4,Global warming over the period 1961-2008 did not increase high-temperature stress but did reduce low-temperature stress in irrigated rice across China,Climate change is recognized to increase the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events that lead to declining crop yield| but this impact has not been well evaluated in China. We examined the changes in extreme temperature stress over the past five decades by quantifying the indices of temperature stress (TSI) during different growth stages of irrigated rice across mainland China. Our results suggest that the indices of low- or high-temperature stress can be used to explain the year-to-year changes in rice yield. Analysis using the TSI indicated that low-temperature stress (LTS) in the seedling and heading-flowering stages of single rice in northeast China| the seedling stage of early rice and the heading-flowering stage of late rice in the double rice regions has reduced over the period of 1961-2008. No significant trends in LTS were detected during the booting stage. Moreover| global warming did not enhance high-temperature stress (HTS) in the heading-flowering stage over the same period| except in early rice in the mid-lower Yangtze River Valley where the HTS in the 2000s was higher than in previous decades. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12656,2011,3,3,Global warming potential of emissions from rice paddies in Northeastern China,In this study| paddy fields in Jilin province which are flooded parcel of arable lands used for growing rice (Oryza sativa Linn.) were selected as the object. Long-term exploitation of paddy fields led to variations of soil organic carbon (SOC) and green house gases (GHGs) emissions which might contribute to global warming. In order to calculate the amount of global warming potentials (GWPs) of emissions from ricepaddies and find the correlations among rice yield| SOC storage and GWP| DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model was used to simulate SOC densities and fluxes of main GHGs emitted from paddy fields. After verification| simulation results were used to calculate SOC storages and 100-year GWPs from 1949 to 2009. Results indicated that SOC densities in depths of 0-10 cm| 10-20 cm and 20-30 cm all kept increasing. Average methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) fluxes were 278.55 kg carbon (kgC) ha(-1) a(-1) and 2.22 kg nitrogen (kgN) ha(-1) a(-1). The SOC storage (0-30 cm) had increased from 3.96x10(9)kgC in 1949 to 47.85x 10(9)kgC in 2009. In addition| GWP emission was increasing exponentially in the past 61 years| from 0.16x10(6) Mg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO(2)-equivalents) to 66.36x10(6) Mg CO(2)-equivalents. Both SOC storage and GWP presented obviously linear relation to rice yields. Overall| the research suggested that long-term rice yields could be used to estimate the SOC storage and GWP variations. 12117,2011,2,4,Global warming's impact on the performance of GSHP,Since heating and cooling systems of buildings consume 30-50% of the global energy consumption| increased efficiency of such systems means a considerable reduction in energy consumption. Ground source heat pumps (GSHP) are likely to play a central role in achieving this goal due to their high energy efficient performance. The efficiency of GSHP depends on the ground temperature| heating and cooling demands| and the distribution of heating and cooling over the year. However| all of these are affected by the ongoing climatic change. Consequently| global warming has direct effects on the GSHP performance. Within the framework of current study| heating and cooling demands of a reference building were calculated for different global warming scenarios in different climates i.e. cold| mild and hot climate. The prime energy required to drive the GSHP system is compared for each scenario and two configurations of ground heat exchangers. Current study shows that the ongoing climatic change has significant impact on GSHP systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11573,2011,4,4,Global Warming| El Nino| and High-Impact Storms at Extreme Altitude: Historical Trends and Consequences for Mountaineers,The twentieth century was bracketed by two high-profile events on Mount Everest: the 1924 Mallory and Irvine disappearance and the 1996 Into Thin Air storm. During both events| fatalities occurred high on the mountain during deteriorating weather conditions. Although there have been dramatic improvements in knowledge of the mountain and in the technology used on it| it is shown that an unappreciated change that has also occurred| as a result of warming in the region| is an increase in barometric pressure. A rare and unique set of meteorological data collected at various elevations on the mountain during the 1924 British Everest expedition as well as modern datasets are used to compare and contrast conditions during the two storms and the two climbing seasons. It is shown that both storms were associated with weather systems known locally as western disturbances that resulted in summit barometric pressure drops sufficient to have exacerbated altitude-induced hypoxia. It is further shown that the Mallory and Irvine attempt occurred later in the season than typically is the case now and that this was most likely the result of a concurrent El Nino event. Despite the trend of increasing barometric pressure| the pressure drop associated with storms in the region should remain a concern for those who venture to extreme altitudes. The authors therefore argue that success and failure on Everest and other Himalayan peaks requires knowledge of the variability and trends in both the weather and climate. 12543,2011,2,4,Global warming| elevational ranges and the vulnerability of tropical biota,Tropical species with narrow elevational ranges may be thermally specialized and vulnerable to global warming. Local studies of distributions along elevational gradients reveal small-scale patterns but do not allow generalizations among geographic regions or taxa. We critically assessed data from 249 studies of species elevational distributions in the American| African| and Asia-Pacific tropics. Of these| 150 had sufficient data quality| sampling intensity| elevational range| and freedom from serious habitat disturbance to permit robust across-study comparisons. We found four main patterns: (1) species classified as elevational specialists (upper- or lower-zone specialists) are relatively more frequent in the American than Asia-Pacific tropics| with African tropics being intermediate; (2) elevational specialists are rare on islands| especially oceanic and smaller continental islands| largely due to a paucity of upper-zone specialists; (3) a relatively high proportion of plants and ectothermic vertebrates (amphibians and reptiles) are upper-zone specialists; and (4) relatively few endothermic vertebrates (birds and mammals) are upper-zone specialists. Understanding these broad-scale trends will help identify taxa and geographic regions vulnerable to global warming and highlight future research priorities. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12598,2011,4,4,GPS radio occultation for climate monitoring and change detection,Observation of the atmospheric climate and detection of changes require high quality data. Radio Occultation (RO) using Global Positioning System (GPS) signals is based on time measurements with precise atomic clocks. It provides a long-term stable and consistent data record with global coverage and favorable error characteristics. Highest quality and vertical resolution is given in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). RO data exist from the GPS/Met mission within 1995-1997| and continuous observations are available since 2001. We give a review on studies using RO data for climate monitoring and change detection in the UTLS and discuss RO characteristics and error estimates| climate change indicators| trend detection| and comparison to conventional upper-air data. These studies showed that RO parameters cover the whole UTLS with useful indicators of climate change| being most robust in the tropics. Refractivity is most sensitive in the lower stratosphere (LS) and tropopause region| pressure/geopotential height and temperature over the UTLS region. An emerging climate change signal in the RO record can be detected for geopotential height of pressure levels and for temperature| reflecting warming of the troposphere and cooling of the LS. The results are in agreement with trends in radiosonde and ERA-Interim records. Climate model trends basically agree as well but they show less warming/cooling contrast across the tropical tropopause. (Advanced) Microwave Sounding Unit LS bulk temperature anomalies show significant differences to RO. Overall| the quality of RO climate records is suitable to fulfill the requirements of a global climate change monitoring system. 12050,2011,2,4,GRACE era secular trends in Earth rotation parameters: A global scale impact of the global warming process?,Recent trends in the two primary anomalies in the rotational state of the planet are analyzed in detail| namely those associated with the speed and direction of polar wander and with the non-tidal acceleration of the rate of axial rotation (via the measurement of the changing oblateness of the Earth's shape). It is demonstrated that a significant change in the secular trends in both of these independent parameters became evident subsequent to approximately 1992. It is suggested that both parameters might have come to be substantially influenced by mass loss from both the great polar ice sheets| and from the very large number of small ice-sheets and glaciers that are also being influenced by the global warming phenomenon. The modern values for the secular drifts in those parameters that we estimate are appropriate to the period during which measurements have been made by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). These changes in secular rates might greatly assist in understanding why the GRACE-inferred values of the time derivatives of the degree two and order one Stokes coefficients differ so significantly from those associated with Late Quaternary ice-age influence. Citation: Roy| K.| and W. R. Peltier (2011)| GRACE era secular trends in Earth rotation parameters: A global scale impact of the global warming process?| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L10306| doi:10.1029/2011GL047282. 12713,2011,3,3,Green growth in the post-Copenhagen climate,Global climate change stands out from most environmental problems because it will span generations and force us to think in new ways about intergenerational fairness. It involves the delicate problem of complex coordination between countries on a truly global scale. As long as fossil fuels are too cheap| climate change policy will engage all major economies. The costs are high enough to make efficiency a priority| which means striving toward a single market for carbon plus tackling the thorny issues of fairness. Hopes for a grand deal were mercilessly shattered at Copenhagen in December 2009 and in other recent UNFCCC meetings| with the result that "green growth" is promoted as an alternative path. Indeed| green growth is clearly the goal| but it is no magic bullet. The world economy will require clear and rather tough policy instruments for growth to be green-and it is naive to think otherwise. Growth| green or not| will boost demand for energy and coal is normally the cheapest source. The magnitude of the challenge is greater if we also consider the problems related to nuclear (fission) energy and| in some instances| to bioenergy (such as its competition for land that may be essential for the poor). This paper discusses some necessary ingredients for a long-term global climate strategy. As we wait for the final (and maybe elusive) worldwide treaty| we must find a policy that makes sense and is not only compatible with| but facilitates the development of such a treaty. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12872,2011,3,4,Green heterogeneous catalyst for biodiesel synthesis,The depletion of fossil fuel and global warming are major environmental concerns in recent decades and alternative sources of energy like solar| wind| hydro| biomass and even nuclear has been extensively studied by different scientists as potential solutions. However| one important problem associated with the running out of fossil fuel is normally overlooked i.e. the cease of chemical raw materials supply for plastics| medicine and other fine chemicals. Among all| biomass is the only hope that would harvest energy from sun with the cogeneration of important raw materials for our future. Also| due to its carbon neutrality| non toxicity| biodegradability and compatibility with the existing infrastructures for oil refinery and transportation system| biofuel has become a promising alternative as liquid transportation fuel.
3387,2011,3,3,Green projects: An information drives analysis of four cases,An analysis of four transportation systems (Velib| Zipcar| ERP Singapore| and Transantiago) shows the strategic value of creating a symbiotic relationship between physical and informational systems in order to increase the convenience and patronage of these systems. The four information drives (ubiquity| uniqueness| unison| and universality) are extended to a physical setting and used to report the key characteristics of each system from both a physical and informational perspective. The article argues that the traditional customer orientation to determining systems requirements may fail to create the breakthrough systems designs that are required to reduce society's climate harming emissions. Rather| we need an innovation orientation based on understanding consumers' fundamental physical and informational needs. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11927,2011,3,2,GREEN-MAC-LCCP (c): Life-Cycle Climate Performance Metric for Mobile Air Conditioning Technology Choice,Most refrigerants used today are potent chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)| hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC)| and hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)| greenhouse gases (GHG) that can contribute significantly to anthropogenic climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion. In a business-as-usual scenario| HFC emissions in 2050 have been predicted to be equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions. This percentage increases to 28-45% if projected CO(2) emissions result in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. Half of current direct HFC emissions are from mobile air conditioning (MAC) and alternative refrigerants with lower global warming potential (GWP) should have higher energy efficiency. The European f-Gas Directive phases out the use of refrigerants with GWP > 150| including HFC-134a (GWP = 1430) from MACs by 2017. Life-Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) identifies environmentally superior technology to minimize GHG emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning applications. The comprehensive LCCP model| GREEN-MAC-LCCP (c) focuses on the current choice among alternative refrigerants that meet the f-Gas requirement starting in 2011. Using GREEN-MAC-LCCP (c) we estimate that the current MAC technology based on HFC-134a refrigerant demands additional fuel during vehicle A/C operation in the: USA by 7%| in the EU by 7%| in Japan by 9%| in India by 15-20%| and in China by 7-10% depending on the humidity. We compare these data with the projected LCCP CO(2)-eq. savings by the year 2017 when HFC-134a will be replaced by a low GWP alternative (GWP < 150) according to the f-Gas rule. We find that refrigerant HFO-1234yf has the potential to reduce global LCCP CO(2)-eq. greenhouse gas emissions by about 7% in 2017| whereas greenhouse gas emissions from air conditioning systems using R-744 (carbon dioxide) refrigerants are estimated to be about 2% greater| compared to the current HFC-134a MAC baseline systems. (C) 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog| 30: 234-247| 2011 12283,2011,3,2,Greenhouse effect of clusterization of CO(2) and CH(4) with atmospheric moisture,Carbon dioxide and methane are major compounds involved in global warming. The process of CO(2) and CH(4) molecules absorption by water clusters was investigated by the molecular dynamics method. The frequency spectra of dielectric permittivity for systems consisting of (H(2)O) (n) | (CO(2)) (i) (H(2)O)(10) and (CH(4)) (i) (H(2)O)(10) clusters mixed in various proportions were determined. The IR radiation absorption spectra of these systems were calculated and compared. Also| the radiating power of these systems was established. The capture of greenhouse gases' molecules by ultra disperse water media reduces the ability of the media to absorb the Earth's radiation| i.e.| it reduces the greenhouse effect. 3475,2011,3,2,GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION CAUSED BY DIFFERENT LAND-USES IN BRAZILIAN SAVANNAH,The conversion of native forests by cutting and burning into farming areas leads to alterations in the dynamics of soil organic matter| with changes in emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs: CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O) from the biosphere to the atmosphere. These cause an average temperature rise and| consequently| global climate change. The aim of this study was to examine relationships between the fluxes of CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O with moisture| microbial biomass and inorganic N forms in soil with different land uses in the Cerrado biome (Rio Verde county| State of Goias - Brazil). The climate (Koppen-Geiger) was classified as Aw and the soil as Latossolo Vermelho distrofico caulinitico I a clayey kaolinitic Oxisol under original Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) vegetation. The experiment was arranged in a completely randomized design (CRD) with four treatments (areas): Native vegetation - Cerrado (CE); brachiaria pasture (PA); soybean in conventional tillage (SC) and no-tillage (NT) corn followed by millet. No significant differences in annual CO(2) and N(2)O emissions were observed between treatments. This can be explained by the variability of gas fluxes due to climate seasonality| with lower emissions in the winter due to low soil moisture. Mean emissions of CO(2) were 108.9 +/- 85.6 mu g m(-2) h(-1)| and N(2)O 13.5 +/- 7.6 mu g m(-2) h(-1). For CH(4) significant differences in the fluxes were only observed in pasture (32 mu g m(-2) h(-1))| while in the other areas inflows between 46 and 15 mu g m(-2) h(-1) were observed. The GHG fluxes showed close correlation with soil moisture. The N-NO(3)(-) emissions were significantly correlated with CO(2)-emissions in all areas. Considering all treatments together| the three GHG fluxes were correlated with the microbial C and N contents. However| the Cmicro: Nmicro ratio was not significantly correlated with the GHG flux. Only for pasture the CO(2) and N(2)O fluxes were correlated with the content of soil inorganic-N. Results suggested that the GHG fluxes in the Cerrado are related to rainfall| mainly in farming areas treated with high fertilizer closes to increase productivity. 12218,2011,3,3,Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions from Domestic Anaerobic Digesters Linked with Sustainable Sanitation in Rural China,Anaerobic digesters provide clean| renewable energy (biogas) by converting organic waste to methane| and are a key part of China's comprehensive rural energy plan. Here| experimental and modeling results are used to quantify the net greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction from substituting a household anaerobic digester for traditional energy sources in Sichuan| China. Tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy and radial plume mapping were used to estimate the mass flux of fugitive methane emissions from active digesters. Using household energy budgets| the net improvement in GHG emissions associated with biogas installation was estimated using global warming commitment (GWC) as a consolidated measure of the warming effects of GHG emissions from cooking. In all scenarios biogas households had lower GWC than nonbiogas households| by as much as 54%. Even biogas households with methane leakage exhibited lower GWC than nonbiogas households| by as much as 48%. Based only on the averted GHG emissions over 10 years| the monetary value of a biogas installation was conservatively estimated at US$28.30 ($16.07 ton(-1) CO(2).eq)| which is available to partly offset construction costs. The interaction of biogas installation programs with policies supporting improved stoves| renewable harvesting of biomass| and energy interventions with substantial health cobenefits are discussed. 3274,2011,3,4,Greenhouse gas emissions and natural resources use by the world economy: Ecological input-output modeling,For the world economy as a biophysical network associated with financial links| an ecological endowment inventory and corresponding ecological input-output modeling are presented to investigate the greenhouse gas emissions and natural resources use in 2000. A forty-sector global economic input-output table is constructed through an integration and extension of existing statistics which covers thirty-four countries accounting for about 80% of the world economy. Global inventories for ecological endowments of six categories| i.e.| greenhouse gas emissions| energy sources| water resources| exergy resources| solar emergy resources| and cosmic emergy resources| are accounted in detail. As a result of the modeling| embodied intensities of different ecological endowments are obtained for all forty sectors| based on which the sectoral embodiments for consumptive and productive uses are presented separately. Results of this study provide a sound scientific database for policy making on global climate change mitigation as well as on global resources management. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11819,2011,3,3,Greenhouse gas emissions associated with photovoltaic electricity from crystalline silicon modules under various energy supply options,The direct and indirect emissions associated with photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation are evaluated| focussing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar module production. Electricity supply technologies used in the entire PV production chain are found to be most influential. Emissions associated with only the electricity-input in the production of PV vary as much as 0-200 g CO(2)-eq per kWh electricity generated by PV. This wide range results because of specific supply technologies one may assume to provide the electricity-input in PV production| i.e.| whether coal-| gas-| wind-| or PV-power facilities in the "background" provide the electricity supply for powering the entire PV production chain. The heat input in the entire PV production chain| for which mainly the combustion of natural gas is assumed| adds another similar to 16 CO(2)-eq/kWh. The GHG emissions directly attributed to c-Si PV technology alone constitute only similar to 1-2 g CO(2)-eq/kWh. The difference in scale indicates the relevance of reporting "indirect" emissions due to energy input in PV production separately from "direct" emissions particular to PV technology. In this article| we also demonstrate the utilization of "direct" and "indirect" shares of emissions for the calculation of GHG emissions in simplified world electricity-and PV-market development scenarios. Results underscore very large GHG mitigation realized by solar PV toward increasingly significant PV market shares. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 11620,2011,3,3,Greenhouse gas emissions control in integrated municipal solid waste management through mixed integer bilevel decision-making,Recent studies indicated that municipal solid waste (MSW) is a major contributor to global warming due to extensive emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However| most of them focused on investigating impacts of MSW on GHG emission amounts. This study presents two mixed integer bilevel decision-making models for integrated municipal solid waste management and GHG emissions control: MGU-MCL and MCU-MGL The MGU-MCL model represents a top-down decision process| with the environmental sectors at the national level dominating the upper-level objective and the waste management sectors at the municipal level providing the lower-level objective. The MCU-MGL model implies a bottom-up decision process where municipality plays a leading role. Results from the models indicate that: the top-down decisions would reduce metric tonne carbon emissions (MTCEs) by about 59% yet increase about 8% of the total management cost; the bottom-up decisions would reduce MTCE emissions by about 13% but increase the total management cost very slightly; on-site monitoring and downscaled laboratory experiments are still required for reducing uncertainty in GHG emission rate from the landfill facility. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12032,2011,3,4,Greenhouse gas emissions from rice based cropping systems: Economic and technologic challenges and opportunities,Recent market slump in rice| less rainfall during monsoon| high temperature and scarcity of water during dry season leads to lower grain yield and less profit from rice cultivation in India. Farmers' grow upland crops like chickpea (Cicer arietinum)| greengram (Vigna radiate)| mustard (Brassica nigra)| corn (Zea maize)| pigeonpea (Cajanus cajan)| potato (Solanum tuberosum)| sunflower (Helianthus annuus) etc. along with rice (Oryza sativa) during the dry season. However| knowledge of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from these rice based cropping systems is very limited. In the present study four rice based cropping systems was studied along with rice-rice rotation system as control in respect of GHG emission| yield potential and economic feasibility. Conventional plantation and fertilizer application methodology was followed for each crop. Methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) flux from field plots were studied with conventional closed chamber method using gas chromatograph. CH(4) flux was recorded highest from rice-rice rotation plots (304.25 kg ha(-1)). N(2)O flux was recorded 1.02 kg ha(-1) from rice-rice rotation system during wet season. However| during wet season| higher N(2)O flux (1.93 kg ha(-1)) was recorded from rice-potato-sesame rotation plots. Annual N(2)O flux was also recorded significantly low (3.42 kg ha(-1)) from rice-rice rotation plots and high (6.19 kg ha(-1)) from rice-chickpea-greengram rotation plots. Significantly lower annual grain yield was recorded from rice-rice rotation plots (9.25 Mg ha(-1)) whereas it was 18.84 Mg rice eq ha(-1) from rice-potato-sesame rotation system. The global warming potential (GWP) of rice-rice rotation system was recorded significantly high (8.62 Mg CO(2) ha(-1)) compare to plots with different rice based cropping systems. Computing all C-emission from cradle-to-grave| highest total C-cost was recorded from the rice-rice rotation system ($62.00 ha(-1)). We have made an attempt to calculate the C-credit of different rice based cropping systems by considering the difference of C-cost with control. The study suggests that the rice-potato-sesame is most sustainable among different cropping system studied in terms of economic profit ($1248.21 ha(-1)) and C-credit ($38.60 ha(-1)). The result of the study may be limited to the study region; however| the study has potential use in respect to the development of agriculture practice for adaptation to climate change. 11949,2011,3,3,Greenhouse gas emissions from swine manure stored at different stack heights,Swine manure storage is a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study was conducted to quantify CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from swine manure stored at different stack heights using dynamic emission vessels. Stack heights of 10| 20| and 40 cm to cover the typical range of manure stack heights| were examined at 25 degrees C with a ventilation rate of 20 air changes/h with each regimen replicated thrice. Results show that the GHG emissions increased on the 2nd to 3rd day of manure storage then decreased to became stable after 10 d of storage. Manure stack height affected GHG emissions from stored swine manure| with the lower stack height having higher CO(2) and N(2)O| but lower CH(4)| emissions/kg of initial manure weight. On the basis of 100 yr global warming potential for CH(4) and N(2)O| cumulative emissions were 7.5 +/- 1.11| 6.8 +/- 1.32 and 10.8 +/- 1.23 g CO(2)-eqv/kg initial manure| respectively| for the 10| 20| and 40 cm stacks over the 6 wk storage period. Results suggest that 20 cm stack height produced the least GHG emissions. This paper is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions| Guest Edited by T.A. McAllister| Section Guest Editors: K.A. Beauchemin| X. Hao| S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology| P.H. Robinson. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
11983,2011,3,3,Greenhouse gas fluxes respond to different N fertilizer types due to altered plant-soil-microbe interactions,The application of inorganic nitrogen (N) fertilizers strongly influences the contribution of agriculture to the greenhouse effect| especially by potentially increasing emissions of nitrous oxide (N(2)O)| carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and methane (CH(4)) from soils. The present microcosm-study investigates the effect of different forms of inorganic N fertilizers on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from two different agricultural soils. The relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and soil microbial communities| N transformation rates and plant (Hordeum vulgare L. cv. Morex) growth were investigated. Repeated N fertilization led to increased N(2)O emissions. In a parallel survey of functional microbial population dynamics we observed a stimulation of bacterial and archaeal ammonia oxidisers accompanied with these N(2)O emissions. The ratio of archaeal to bacterial ammonium monooxygenase subunit A (amoA) gene copies (data obtained from Inselsbacher et al.| 2010) correlated positively with N(2)O fluxes| which suggests a direct or indirect involvement of archaea in N(2)O fluxes. Repeated N fertilization also stimulated methane oxidation| which may also be related to a stimulation of ammonia oxidizers. The fertilizer effects differed between soil types: In the more organic Niederschleinz soil N-turnover rates increased more strongly after fertilization| while in the sandy Purkersdorf soil plant growth and soil respiration were accelerated depending on fertilizer N type. Compared to addition of NH (4) (+) and NO (3) (-) | addition of NH(4)NO(3) fertilizer resulted in the largest increase in global warming potential as a summary indicator of all GHG related effects. This effect resulted from the strongest increase of both N(2)O and CO(2) emission while plant growth was not equally stimulated| compared to e.g. KNO(3) fertilization. In order to decrease N losses from agricultural ecosystems and in order to minimize soil derived global warming potential| this study points to the need for interdisciplinary investigations of the highly complex interactions within plant-soil-microbe-atmosphere systems. By understanding the microbial processes underlying fertilizer effects on GHG emissions the N use efficiency of crops could be refined. 12687,2011,2,4,Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance 1870 to 2010 based on Twentieth Century Reanalysis| and links with global climate forcing,We present a reconstruction of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB) from 1870 to 2010| based on merged Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) meteorological reanalyses| and we compare our new SMB series with global and regional climate and atmospheric circulation indices during this period. We demonstrate good agreement between SMB annual series constructed from 20CR and ECMWF reanalyses for the common period of overlap and show statistically significant agreement of long-term modeled snowfall with ice-core-based accumulation data. We analyze variations in SMB for the last 140 years and highlight the periods with significantly increased runoff and decreased SMB since 1870| which have both been enhanced in the period since 1990| as well as interannual variations in SMB linked to Greenland climate fluctuations. We show very good agreement of our SMB series variations with existing| independently derived SMB series (RACMO2) variations for the past few decades of overlap but also a significant disparity of up to similar to 200 km(3) yr(-1) in absolute SMB values due to poorly constrained modeled accumulation reflecting a lack of adequate validation data in southeast Greenland. There is no significant correlation between our SMB time series and a widely referenced time series of North Atlantic icebergs emanating from Greenland for the past century| which may reflect the complex nature of the relationship between SMB and ice dynamical changes. Finally| we discuss how our analysis sheds light on the sensitivity and response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to ongoing and future global climate change| and its contribution to global sea level rise. 11607,2011,3,3,Grey forecasting model for CO(2) emissions: A Taiwan study,Among the various greenhouse gases associated with climate change. CO(2) is the most frequently implicated in global warming. The latest data from Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) shows that the coal-fired power plant in Taichung. Taiwan emitted 39.7 million tons of CO(2) in 2007 - the highest of any power plant in the world. Based on statistics from Energy International Administration| the annual CO(2) emissions in Taiwan have increased 42% from 1997 until 2006. Taiwan has limited natural resources and relies heavily on imports to meet its energy needs| and the government must take serious measures control energy consumption to reduce CO(2) emissions. Because the latest data was from 2009| this study applied the grey forecasting model to estimate future CO(2) emissions in Taiwan from 2010 until 2012. Forecasts of CO(2) emissions in this study show that the average residual error of the GM(1|1) was below 10%. Overall| the GM(1|1) predicted further increases in CO(2) emissions over the next 3 years. Although Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations and is not bound by the Kyoto Protocol| the findings of this study provide a valuable reference with which the Taiwanese government could formulate measures to reduce CO(2) emissions by curbing the unnecessary the consumption of energy. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12743,2011,2,4,Groundwater legislation in Turkey: problems of conception and application,The uneven distribution of water resources| a growing population| urbanization and global climate change require new approaches for groundwater management in Turkey. "Safe yield" should yield to broader concepts such as "sustainability". Groundwater management needs to consider future needs of the people and all ecosystems in accordance with basin development models. Groundwater law needs to be expanded beyond quantity to address quality concerns. A new institutional framework should be established and groundwater regulation should reflect new approaches and ideas| in particular to address problems of application. 12446,2011,2,3,Growth and community responses of alpine dwarf shrubs to in situ CO(2) enrichment and soil warming,Rising CO(2) concentrations and the associated global warming are expected to have large impacts on high-elevation ecosystems| yet long-term multifactor experiments in these environments are rare. We investigated how growth of dominant dwarf shrub species (Vaccinium myrtillus| Vaccinium gaultherioides and Empetrum hermaphroditum) and community composition in the understorey of larch and pine trees responded to 9 yr of CO(2) enrichment and 3 yr of soil warming at the treeline in the Swiss Alps. Vaccinium myrtillus was the only species that showed a clear positive effect of CO(2) on growth| with no decline over time in the annual shoot growth response. Soil warming stimulated V. myrtillus growth even more than elevated CO(2) and was accompanied by increased plant-available soil nitrogen (N) and leaf N concentrations. Growth of Vaccinium gaultherioides and E. hermaphroditum was not influenced by warming. Vascular plant species richness declined in elevated CO(2) plots with larch| while the number of moss and lichen species decreased under warming. Ongoing environmental change could lead to less diverse plant communities and increased dominance of the particularly responsive V. myrtillus in the studied alpine treeline. These changes are the consequence of independent CO(2) and soil warming effects| a result that should facilitate predictive modelling approaches. 3172,2011,2,3,Habitat Correlates of the Red Panda in the Temperate Forests of Bhutan,Anthropogenic activities and associated global climate change are threatening the biodiversity in the Himalayas against a backdrop of poor knowledge of the region's threatened species. The red panda (Ailurus fulgens) is a threatened mammal confined to the eastern Himalayas| and because of Bhutan's central location in the distributional range of red pandas| its forests are integral to the long-term viability of wild populations. Detailed habitat requirements of the red panda are largely speculative| and there is virtually no ecological information available on this species in Bhutan. Between 2007 and 2009| we established 615 presence/absence plots in a systematic sampling of resident habitat types within Jigme Dorji and Thrumshingla National Parks| Bhutan| to investigate broad and fine-scale red panda habitat associations. Additional locality records of red pandas were obtained from interviewing 664 park residents. Red pandas were generally confined to cool broadleaf and conifer forests from 2|110-4|389 m above sea level (asl)| with the majority of records between 2|400-3|700 m asl on south and east-facing slopes. At a finer scale| multivariate analysis revealed that red pandas were strongly associated with old growth Bhutan Fir (Abies densa) forest dominated by a dense cover of Yushania and Arundanaria bamboo with a high density of fallen logs and tree stumps at ground level; a high density of trees| dead snags| and rhododendron shrubs in the mid-storey; and locations that were close to water. Because Bhutan's temperate forests that encompass prime red panda habitat are also integral to human subsistence and socio-economic development| there exists an inadvertent conflict between the needs of people and red pandas. As such| careful sustainable management of Bhutan's temperate forests is necessary if a balance is to be met between the socioeconomic needs of people and the conservation goals for red pandas. 3179,2011,2,4,Hail impact on leaves and endophytes of the endemic threatened Coccoloba cereifera (Polygonaceae),There is increasing evidence that some natural disturbances are increasing in frequency and intensity with global change| but the effects of these changes on plant populations is poorly understood. It is estimated that for every 1 degrees C increase in the summer mean minimum temperature| there is a 40% increase in hail damage. Severe hailstorms can cause large impacts on biological communities. In 2008| a strong hailstorm hit the speciose and endemic rupestrian vegetation in Serra do Cipo| Brazil. This event prompted us to record its effects on the narrowly distributed and threatened species Coccoloba cereifera (Polygonaceae). About 33 to 60% of the leaves on the 246 individuals surveyed were lost. The disturbance also influenced some of the physiological traits of C. cereifera| increasing the concentration of photosynthetic pigments (chlorophyll and carotenoid) and polyphenols in the leaves. The most pronounced increase of chlorophyll was in young leaves (ca. 60%). Carotenoid content increased by ca. 50% in all leaf ages| while polyphenols increased tenfold. Contrarily| the endophyte richness decreased drastically after the event (from 104 to 33 species)| only 12% of similar species remain. The hail storm strongly influenced all variables evaluated in this study| i.e.| structure| physiology| and associated fungi. These results show that hailstorm had a dramatic and immediate impact on C. cereifera and may also severely affect other endemic or threatened plant species. Therefore| it is imperative that we broaden our knowledge on global climate change impacts for the conservation of native species. 12821,2011,3,4,HEALTH-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF POWER PLANTS USING MULTI CRITERIA DECISION MAKING METHOD,Growing importance of environmental issues at global and regional levels including pollution of water| air etc. as well as the outcomes such as global warming and climate change have led to environmental aspects being considered as effective factors for power generation. The aim of this study is the examination of risks resulting from activities of the Yazd Combined Cycle Power Plant located in Iran. The method applied in the research is analytical hierarchy process. After identification of factors causing risk| the analytical hierarchy structure of the power plant risks was designed and the weights of the criteria and sub-criteria were calculated by intensity probability product using Eigenvector method and Expert Choice software. Results indicate that in technological| health-safety| biophysical and socioeconomic sections of the power plant| factors influenced by the power plant activities like fire and explosion| hearing loss| quantity of groundwater| power generation are among the most important factors causing risk in the power plant. The drop in underground water levels is the most important natural consequence influenced on Yazd combined cycle power plant. 3371,2011,2,4,Heat tolerance and its plasticity in Antarctic fishes,The adaptive radiation of the Antarctic notothenioid ancestral benthic fish stock within the chronic freezing waters of the Southern Ocean gave rise to five highly cold adapted families. Their stenothermy| first observed from several high-latitude McMurdo Sound species| has been of increasing recent interest given the threat of rising polar water temperatures from global climate change. In this study we determined the heat tolerance in a geographically diverse group of 11 Antarctic species as their critical thermal maximum (CTMax). When acclimatized to their natural freezing water temperatures| environmental CTMaxs ranged from 11.95 to 16.17 degrees C| well below those of fishes endemic to warmer waters. There was a significant regional split| with higher CTMaxs in species from the more northerly and thermally variable Seasonal Pack-ice Zone. When eight of the Antarctic species were warm acclimated to 4 degrees C all showed a significant increase over their environmental CTMaxs| with several showing plasticity comparable in magnitude to some far more eurythermal fishes. When the accrual of heat tolerance during acclimation was followed in three high-latitude McMurdo Sound species| it was found to develop slowly in two of them| which was correlated with their low metabolic rates. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 11728,2011,3,4,Heating and cooling energy demand and related emissions of the German residential building stock under climate change,The housing sector is a major consumer of energy. Studies on the future energy demand under climate change which also take into account future changes of the building stock| renovation measures and heating systems are still lacking. We provide the first analysis of the combined effect of these four influencing factors on the future energy demand for room conditioning of residential buildings and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Germany until 2060. We show that the heating energy demand will decrease substantially in the future. This shift will mainly depend on the number of renovated buildings and climate change scenarios and only slightly on demographic changes. The future cooling energy demand will remain low in the future unless the amount of air conditioners strongly increases. As a strong change in the German energy mix is not expected| the future GHG emissions caused by heating will mainly depend on the energy demand for future heating. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3386,2011,2,4,Herbicides increase the vulnerability of corals to rising sea surface temperature,In order to examine the potential interactive pressures of local pollution and global climate change| we exposed corals and crustose coralline algae (CCA) to three agricultural photosystem II (PSII) herbicides at four temperatures (26-32 degrees C). The coral Acropora millepora was 3- to 10-fold more sensitive to the three herbicides than the CCA Neogoniolithon fosliei. While the photosynthesis of CCA was not affected by the herbicide concentrations used (< 1 mu g L(-1))| temperatures of 31 degrees C and 32 degrees C alone significantly inhibited photosynthetic efficiency (Delta F: F(m)') and caused chronic photoinhibition (reduced F(v) : F(m)) and substantial bleaching. Environmentally relevant concentrations of each herbicide increased the negative effects of thermal stress on coral at 31 degrees C and 32 degrees C. Mixed model analyses of variance showed that the effects of elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) and herbicide on photosynthetic efficiency of coral symbionts were additive. Furthermore| the effect of either diuron or atrazine in combination with higher SST (31 degrees C and 32 degrees C) on chronic photoinhibition was distinctly greater than additive (synergistic). Reducing the herbicide concentration by 1 mu g L-1 diuron above 30 degrees C would protect photosynthetic efficiency by the equivalent of 1.8 degrees C and reduce chronic photoinhibition by the equivalent of a 1 degrees C reduction. Reduced water quality increases the vulnerability of corals to elevated SSTs| and effective management of local water quality can reduce negative effects of global stressors such as elevated SST. 12088,2011,2,4,Heritability of heat tolerance in a small livebearing fish| Heterandria formosa,Climate change is expected to result in an increased occurrence of heat stress. The long-term population-level impact of this stress would be lessened in populations able to genetically adapt to higher temperatures. Adaptation requires the presence of genetically-based variation. At-risk populations may undergo strong declines in population size that lower the amount of genetic variation. The objectives of this study were to quantify the heritability of heat tolerance in populations of the least killifish| Heterandria formosa| and to determine if heritabilities were reduced following a population bottleneck. Heritabilities of heat tolerance were determined for two lines of each of two source populations; two bottlenecked lines (established with one pair of fish) and two regular lines. Heat tolerance was quantified as temperature-at-death (TAD)| when fish acclimated at 28A degrees C were subjected to an increase in water temperature of 2A degrees C/day. Mid-parent/mean offspring regressions and full-sib analyses were used to estimate the heritability of TAD. Heritability estimates from parent/offspring regressions ranged from 0.185 to 0.462| while those from sib analyses ranged from 0 to 0.324| with an overall estimate of 0.203 (0.230 for the regular lines| 0.168 for bottlenecked ones). Fish from the bottlenecked line from one source population (but not the other) had a lower heritability than did those from the regular line. These results show that the populations tested had some potential for adaptation to elevated water temperatures| and that this potential may be reduced following a population bottleneck. This should not be construed as evidence that natural populations will not suffer negative consequences from global warming; this study only showed that these specific populations have some potential to adapt under a very specific set of conditions. 3192,2011,2,4,Heritable Variation in Garter Snake Color Patterns in Postglacial Populations,Global climate change is expected to trigger northward shifts in the ranges of natural populations of plants and animals| with subsequent effects on intraspecific genetic diversity. Investigating how genetic diversity is patterned among populations that arose following the last Ice Age is a promising method for understanding the potential future effects of climate change. Theoretical and empirical work has suggested that overall genetic diversity can decrease in colonial populations following rapid expansion into postglacial landscapes| with potential negative effects on the ability of populations to adapt to new environmental regimes. The crucial measure of this genetic variation and a population's overall adaptability is the heritable variation in phenotypic traits| as it is this variation that mediates the rate and direction of a population's multigenerational response to selection. Using two large full-sib quantitative genetic studies (N(Manitoba) = 144; N(South Dakota) = 653) and a smaller phenotypic analysis from Kansas (N(Kansas) = 44)| we compared mean levels of pigmentation| genetic variation and heritability in three pigmentation traits among populations of the common garter snake| Thamnophis sirtalis| along a north-south gradient| including a postglacial northern population and a putative southern refuge population. Counter to our expectations| we found that genetic variance and heritability for the three pigmentation traits were the same or higher in the postglacial population than in the southern population. 3345,2011,2,4,Hidden signals of climate change in intertidal ecosystems: What (not) to expect when you are expecting,One of the most significant biological impacts of global climate change is through alterations of organismal body temperature| which ultimately drives almost all physiological processes. Using a simple heat budget model ground-truthed using similar to 5 years of in situ temperature data collected using biomimetic sensors| we explored the sensitivity of aerial (low tide) mussel body temperature at three tidal elevations to changes in air temperature| solar radiation| wind speed| wave height| and the timing of low tide at a site in central California| USA (Bodega Bay). Results suggest that while increases in air temperature and solar radiation can significantly alter the risk of exposure to stressful conditions| especially at upper intertidal elevations| patterns of risk can be substantially reduced by convective cooling such that even moderate increases in mean wind speed (similar to 1 m s(-1)) can theoretically counteract the effects of substantial (2.5 degrees C) increases in air temperature. Simulations further suggest that shifts in the timing of low tide (+1 h)| such as occur moving to different locations along the coast of California| can have very large impacts on sensitivity to increases in air temperature. Depending on the timing of low tide| at some sites increases in air temperature will primarily affect animals in the upper intertidal zone| while at other sites animals will be affected across all tidal elevations. Field measurements and model predictions show that animal temperatures are often high even when air temperatures are not| confirming the importance of solar radiation in the heat budgets of intertidal ectotherms. Conversely| body temperatures are not always elevated even when low tide air temperatures are extreme due to the combined effects of convective cooling and wave splash. The results of these simulations. coupled with ongoing field measurements| suggest that the timing and magnitude of warming will be highly variable at coastal sites| and can be driven to a large extent by local oceanographic and meteorological processes. Moreover| they strongly caution against the use of single environmental metrics such as air temperature as indicators of past| current and future physiological stress on the west coast of North America| and instead advocate for approaches that consider the interactive roles of multiple physical drivers. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12561,2011,5,3,High carbon sequestration in Siberian permafrost loess-paleosols during glacials,Recent findings show that the amount of organic carbon stored in high-latitude permafrost regions has been greatly underestimated. While concerns are rising that thawing permafrost and resultant CO(2) and methane emissions are a positive feedback mechanism at times of anthropogenic global warming| the potential role of permafrost carbon dynamics on glacial-interglacial timescales has received little attention. Here we present new results from a well-studied permafrost loess-paleosol sequence in north-east Siberia that almost spans two glacial cycles (similar to 220 ka). We analysed the deuterium/hydrogen isotopic ratios (delta D) of alkanes| which serve as proxy for paleo-temperature. Thus circumventing difficulties to obtain exact age control for such sequences| the results corroborate our previous notion that more soil organic carbon was sequestered during glacials than during inter-glacials. This fact highlights the role of permafrost in favouring preservation of soil organic matter. Reduced biomass production during glacials may have been of second-order importance on these timescales. Although future studies are needed to evaluate existing large estimates of carbon dioxide releases from thawing permafrost during the last termination (> 1000 Pg C)| we suggest that permafrost carbon dynamics contributed to the observed glacial-interglacial variation in atmospheric CO(2) and need to be included in carbon cycle and climate models. 12242,2011,2,4,High night temperature and plant growth regulator effects on spikelet sterility| grain characteristics and yield of rice (Oryza sativa L.) plants,The presence of seasonally high night temperature (HNT) as a result of global warming| occurring during the critical stages of development| could reduce rice yield and quality. To understand how a combination of HNT and plant growth regulators (PG R; alpha-tocopherol and glycine betaine) affects yield and yield-related parameters of rice plants| we conducted three pot experiments under two levels of night temperature (NT; 27 and 32 degrees C) with or without PGR treatments. Plants were subjected to a HNT through the use of continuously controlled infrared heaters| starting 20 d after emergence (DAE)| from 2000 until 0600. Plants were treated with alpha-tocopherol and glycine betaine 20 DAE. The NT had no effect on number of productive tillers| main-stem panicle length or number of primary branches per panicle; however| reduced yield resulted from significant effects on spikelet sterility (SS)| and grain length| width| and weight. The grains located at the base of the panicle showed decreased length and width compared with grains located at the tip of the panicle. Application of glycine betaine increased grain yield by predominantly decreasing SS in rice plants| suggesting the potential future use of glycine betaine to help partially prevent HNT damage to rice. 12838,2011,4,4,High-Accuracy Measurements of OH center dot Reaction Rate Constants and IR and UV Absorption Spectra: Ethanol and Partially Fluorinated Ethyl Alcohols,Rate constants for the gas phase reactions of OH center dot radicals with ethanol and three fluorinated ethyl alcohols| CH3CH2OH (k(0))| CH2FCH2OH (k(2))| CHF2CH2OH (k(2))| and CF3CH2OH (k(3)) were measured using a flash photolysis resonance-fluorescence technique over the temperature range 220 to 370 K. The Arrhenius plots were found to exhibit noticeable curvature for all four reactions. The temperature dependences of the rate constants can be represented by the following expressions over the indicated temperature intervals: k(0)(220-370 = 5.98 x 10(-13)(T/298)(1.99) exp(+515/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| k(0)(220-298 = (3.35 +/- 0.06) x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) [for atmospheric modeling purposes| k(0)(T) is essentially temperature-independent below room temperature| k(0)(220-298 = (3.35 +/- 0.06) x 10(-12) cm molecule(-1) s(-1)]| k(1)(230-370 K) = 3.47 x 10(14)(T/298)(4.49) exp(+977/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| k(2)(220-370 = 3.87 x 10(14)(T/298)(4.25) exp(+578/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and k(3)(220-370 = 2.48 x 10(-14)(T/298)(4.03) exp (+418/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The atmospheric lifetimes due to reactions with tropospheric OH center dot were estimated to be 4| 16| 62| and 171 days| respectively| under the assumption atmosphere. UV absorption cross sections of all four ethanols were measured between 160 and 215 mn. The IR absorption cross sections of the three fluorinated ethanols were measured between 400 and 1900 cm(-1)| and their global warming potentials were estimated. 11774,2011,4,4,High-Accuracy Measurements of OH(center dot) Reaction Rate Constants and IR and UV Absorption Spectra: Ethanol and Partially Fluorinated Ethyl Alcohols,Rate constants for the gas phase reactions of OH(center dot) radicals with ethanol and three fluorinated ethyl alcohols| CH(3)CH(2)OH (k(0))| CH(2)FCH(2)OH (k(2))| CHF(2)CH(2)OH (k(2))| and CF(3)CH(2)OH (k(3)) were measured using a flash photolysis resonance-fluorescence technique over the temperature range 220 to 370 K. The Arrhenius plots were found to exhibit noticeable curvature for all four reactions. The temperature dependences of the rate constants can be represented by the following expressions over the indicated temperature intervals: k(0)(220-370 = 5.98 x 10(-13)(T/298)(1.99) exp(+515/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| k(0)(220-298 = (3.35 +/- 0.06) x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) [for atmospheric modeling purposes| k(0)(T) is essentially temperature-independent below room temperature| k(0)(220-298 = (3.35 +/- 0.06) x 10(-12) cm molecule(-1) s(-1)]| k(1)(230-370 K) = 3.47 x 10(14)(T/298)(4.49) exp(+977/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| k(2)(220-370 = 3.87 x 10(14)(T/298)(4.25) exp(+578/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and k(3)(220-370 = 2.48 x 10(-14)(T/298)(4.03) exp (+418/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The atmospheric lifetimes due to reactions with tropospheric OH(center dot) were estimated to be 4| 16| 62| and 171 days| respectively| under the assumption atmosphere. UV absorption cross sections of all four ethanols were measured between 160 and 215 mn. The IR absorption cross sections of the three fluorinated ethanols were measured between 400 and 1900 cm(-1)| and their global warming potentials were estimated. 11985,2011,2,4,High-Resolution Coupled Climate Runoff Simulations of Seasonal Snowfall over Colorado: A Process Study of Current and Warmer Climate,Climate change is expected to accelerate the hydrologic cycle| increase the fraction of precipitation that is rain| and enhance snowpack melting. The enhanced hydrological cycle is also expected to increase snowfall amounts due to increased moisture availability. These processes are examined in this paper in the Colorado Headwaters region through the use of a coupled high-resolution climate-runoff model. Four high-resolution simulations of annual snowfall over Colorado are conducted. The simulations are verified using Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) data. Results are then presented regarding the grid spacing needed for appropriate simulation of snowfall. Finally| climate sensitivity is explored using a pseudo-global warming approach. The results show that the proper spatial and temporal depiction of snowfall adequate for water resource and climate change purposes can be achieved with the appropriate choice of model grid spacing and parameterizations. The pseudo-global warming simulations indicate enhanced snowfall on the order of 10%-25% over the Colorado Headwaters region| with the enhancement being less in the core headwaters region due to the topographic reduction of precipitation upstream of the region (rain-shadow effect). The main climate change impacts are in the enhanced melting at the lower-elevation bound of the snowpack and the increased snowfall at higher elevations. The changes in peak snow mass are generally near zero due to these two compensating effects| and simulated wintertime total runoff is above current levels. The 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) is reduced by 25% in the warmer climate| and the date of maximum SWE occurs 2-17 days prior to current climate results| consistent with previous studies. 3410,2011,5,4,High-resolution stalagmite reconstructions of Australian-Indonesian monsoon rainfall variability during Heinrich stadial 3 and Greenland interstadial 4,Little is known about the possible teleconnections between abrupt climatic changes originating in the North Atlantic and precipitation dynamics in the Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) domain. We examine the climatic impacts of Heinrich stadial 3 (HS3) and Greenland interstadials 4 and 3 (GIS4/3) on AISM-associated precipitation through a high-resolution analysis of stable isotope (delta(18)O| delta(13)C) and trace element (Mg/Ca| P/Ca) ratios in a stalagmite from Liang Luar cave| Flores| Indonesia. Sixteen high precision (230)Th dates indicate that stalagmite LR07-E1 grew rapidly (similar to 0.3-1.0 mm/yr) in two phases between similar to 31.5-30.1 ka and similar to 27.8-25.6 ka| separated by a similar to 2.3 kyr unconformity. Temporally consistent abrupt responses occur in the Flores record during HS3 and GIS4| which are coherent with changes in stalagmite delta(18)O records from China and Brazil. The response of low-latitude precipitation to HS3 cooling and GIS4 warming| as demonstrated by the widely separated sites| comprises three distinct simplified phases: (1) a strong southward migration of the ITCZ during HS3 is associated with a decrease in rainfall at Liang Luar cave and in China| while wetter conditions are reconstructed from Brazil| (2) represents the peak of HS3 impacts and an extended hiatus begins in the Flores record and (3) where suggested dry conditions at Liang Luar throughout GIS4 form part of a coherent north-south anti-phasing in precipitation changes. The reconstructed changes are also broadly consistent with NASA GISS ModelE-R simulations of a Heinrich-like freshwater perturbation in the North Atlantic basin| which produces a southward shift in the ITCZ. The relationship between the palaeoclimate records indicates that atmospheric teleconnections rapidly propagate and synchronise climate change across the hemispheres during periods of abrupt climate change. Our findings augment recent proposals that large-scale atmospheric re-organisations during stadials and interstadials play a key role in driving changes in atmospheric CO(2) concentration| air temperature and global climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11618,2011,2,2,Higher Hydroclimatic Intensity with Global Warming,Because of their dependence on water| natural and human systems are highly sensitive to changes in the hydrologic cycle. The authors introduce a new measure of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT)| which integrates metrics of precipitation intensity and dry spell length| viewing the response of these two metrics to global warming as deeply interconnected. Using a suite of global and regional climate model experiments| it is found that increasing HY-INT is a consistent and ubiquitous signature of twenty-first-century| greenhouse gas induced global warming. Depending on the region| the increase in HY-INT is due to an increase in precipitation intensity| dry spell length| or both. Late twentieth-century observations also exhibit dominant positive HY-INT trends| providing a hydroclimatic signature of late twentieth-century warming. The authors find that increasing HY-INT is physically consistent with the response of both precipitation intensity and dry spell length to global warming. Precipitation intensity increases because of increased atmospheric water holding capacity. However| increases in mean precipitation are tied to increases in surface evaporation rates| which are lower than for atmospheric moisture. This leads to a reduction in the number of wet days and an increase in dry spell length. This analysis identifies increasing hydroclimatic intensity as a robust integrated response to global warming| implying increasing risks for systems that are sensitive to wet and dry extremes and providing a potential target for detection and attribution of hydroclimatic changes. 3418,2011,2,4,Highlights for Agave Productivity,Agaves can grow in marginal arid and semiarid lands where their special ecological and physiological adaptations to environmental conditions give them the potential to produce substantial biomass. Agave americana was the first agave species shown to be a Crassulacean Acid Metabolism plant| with CO(2) uptake occurring primarily at night and with high water-use efficiency (photosynthesis/transpiration). A. salmiana and A. mapisaga can have high nocturnal net CO(2) uptake rates and high productivities averaging 40 tonnes dry weight ha-1 yr-1. Agaves can benefit from the increases in temperature and atmospheric CO(2) levels accompanying global climate change. An Environmental Productivity Index can predict the effects of soil and environmental factors on CO(2) uptake and hence on the regions appropriate for cultivating agaves. In turn| their increased cultivation can support the production of innovative earth-friendly commodities that can be used as new bioenergy feedstocks. 12045,2011,2,3,Highly contrasting effects of different climate forcing agents on terrestrial ecosystem services,Many atmospheric constituents besides carbon dioxide (CO(2)) contribute to global warming| and it is common to compare their influence on climate in terms of radiative forcing| which measures their impact on the planetary energy budget. A number of recent studies have shown that many radiatively active constituents also have important impacts on the physiological functioning of ecosystems| and thus the 'ecosystem services' that humankind relies upon. CO(2) increases have most probably increased river runoff and had generally positive impacts on plant growth where nutrients are non-limiting| whereas increases in near-surface ozone (O(3)) are very detrimental to plant productivity. Atmospheric aerosols increase the fraction of surface diffuse light| which is beneficial for plant growth. To illustrate these differences| we present the impact on net primary productivity and runoff of higher CO(2)| higher near-surface O(3)| and lower sulphate aerosols| and for equivalent changes in radiative forcing. We compare this with the impact of climate change alone| arising| for example| from a physiologically inactive gas such as methane (CH(4)). For equivalent levels of change in radiative forcing| we show that the combined climate and physiological impacts of these individual agents vary markedly and in some cases actually differ in sign. This study highlights the need to develop more informative metrics of the impact of changing atmospheric constituents that go beyond simple radiative forcing. 12739,2011,4,4,Historical Analysis of the Spring Arrival of Migratory Birds to Dutchess County| New York: A 123-year Record,Through an examination of historical records maintained by a local bird club| consisting of naturalist diaries| daily check-lists| and informal bird surveys| we found that 44 springtime migrant bird species show evidence of an increasingly early first arrival date (FAD) during a 123-year record (1885 to 2008) in Dutchess County| NY. Ninety-one percent of the species showed a significant advance in FAD over this period| with the mean advance being 11.6 days/century. Using truncations of the full data-set corresponding to available data for changes in observer effort and population trends| we found that adding these ancillary independent variables to a multiple linear regression contributed little to explain the change in FAD in recent years. The advance in FAD is potentially an index of global climate change in this region. 12281,2011,3,2,Historical and future anthropogenic emission pathways derived from coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations,Using a coupled climate-carbon cycle model| fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions are derived through a reverse approach of prescribing atmospheric CO(2) concentrations according to observations and future projections| respectively. In the second half of the twentieth century| the implied fossil fuel emissions| and also the carbon uptake by land and ocean| are within the range of observational estimates. Larger discrepancies exist in the earlier period (1860-1960)| with small fossil fuel emissions and uncertain emissions from anthropogenic land cover change. In the IPCC SRES A1B scenario| the simulated fossil fuel emissions more than double until 2050 (17 GtC/year) and then decrease to 12 GtC/year by 2100. In addition to A1B| an aggressive mitigation scenario was employed| developed within the European ENSEMBLES project| that peaks at 530 ppm CO(2)(equiv) around 2050 and then decreases to approach 450 ppm during the twenty-second century. Consistent with the prescribed pathway of atmospheric CO(2) in E1| the implied fossil fuel emissions increase from currently 8 GtC/year to about 10 by 2015 and decrease thereafter. In the 2050s (2090s) the emissions decrease to 3.4 (0.5) GtC/year| respectively. As in previous studies| our model simulates a positive climate-carbon cycle feedback which tends to reduce the implied emissions by roughly 1 GtC/year per degree global warming. Further| our results suggest that the 450 ppm stabilization scenario may not be sufficient to fulfill the European Union climate policy goal of limiting the global temperature increase to a maximum of 2A degrees C compared to pre-industrial levels. 12143,2011,3,3,Historical carbon emissions and uptake from the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon,Tropical ecosystems play a large and complex role in the global carbon cycle. Clearing of natural ecosystems for agriculture leads to large pulses of CO(2) to the atmosphere from terrestrial biomass. Concurrently| the remaining intact ecosystems| especially tropical forests| may be sequestering a large amount of carbon from the atmosphere in response to global environmental changes including climate changes and an increase in atmospheric CO(2). Here we use an approach that integrates census-based historical land use reconstructions| remote-sensing-based contemporary land use change analyses| and simulation modeling of terrestrial biogeochemistry to estimate the net carbon balance over the period 1901-2006 for the state of Mato Grosso| Brazil| which is one of the most rapidly changing agricultural frontiers in the world. By the end of this period| we estimate that of the state's 925 225 km(2)| 221 092 km(2) have been converted to pastures and 89 533 km(2) have been converted to croplands| with forest-to-pasture conversions being the dominant land use trajectory but with recent transitions to croplands increasing rapidly in the last decade. These conversions have led to a cumulative release of 4.8 Pg C to the atmosphere| with similar to 80% from forest clearing and 20% from the clearing of cerrado. Over the same period| we estimate that the residual undisturbed ecosystems accumulated 0.3 Pg C in response to CO2 fertilization. Therefore| the net emissions of carbon from Mato Grosso over this period were 4.5 Pg C. Net carbon emissions from Mato Grosso since 2000 averaged 146 Tg C/yr| on the order of Brazil's fossil fuel emissions during this period. These emissions were associated with the expansion of croplands to grow soybeans. While alternative management regimes in croplands| including tillage| fertilization| and cropping patterns promote carbon storage in ecosystems| they remain a small portion of the net carbon balance for the region. This detailed accounting of a region's carbon balance is the type of foundation analysis needed by the new United Nations Collaborative Programmme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). 12005,2011,3,4,Hour-by-Hour Analysis for Increased Accuracy of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for a Low-Energy Condominium Design,P>This article proposes a linear programming model that is based on the wastewater treatment input-output model (W2IO) to identify the lowest-emission choice among alternative feasible options for wastewater treatment; this model can be considered as an application of the waste input-output linear programming model (WIO-LP) to wastewater issues. Using the data of the Tokyo metropolitan W2IO table| I apply this model to obtain the optimal wastewater treatment options under alternative scenarios. The Pareto frontiers of environmental loads are derived to show the trade-off relationships among various types of environmental load and the effect of the introduction of high-temperature incineration of dewatered sludge on the generation of environmental loads. The main conclusion of the study is that when all three types of environmental load (landfill level| global warming potential| and chemical oxygen demand) are considered| the introduction of high-temperature incineration causes the widening of the Pareto frontier of environmental loads and also causes it to move closer to the origin. 3511,2011,3,4,Household energy use and travel: Opportunities for behavioral change,This study examines personal travel decisions and residents' opinions on energy policy options in the Austin metropolitan area. The vast majority of respondents recognized global warming as a problem| and most agreed that lifestyle changes are needed to combat climate change. Many also believe that climate change can be combated by application of stricter policies in the areas of vehicle technology| fuel economy| and building design. Results of the study illuminate the importance of home-zone attributes on vehicle ownership| vehicle miles| and emissions. Most households agree that energy regulations should be pursued to curb global climate change| and most prefer caps on consumption over taxation. The results suggest that substantial US energy and greenhouse gas savings are likely to come from vehicle fuel-economy regulation| rebates on relatively fuel-efficient vehicle purchases| caps on maximum household energy use| and long-term behavioral shifts. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12041,2011,3,3,How can we improve biomethane production per unit of feedstock in biogas plants?,Biogas production is one of the number of tools that may be used to alleviate the problems of global warming| energy security and waste management. Biogas plants can be difficult to sustain from a financial perspective. The facilities must be financially optimized through use of substrates with high biogas potential| low water content and low retention requirement. This research carried out in laboratory scale batch digesters assessed the biogas potential of energy crops (maize and grass silage) and solid manure fractions from manure separation units. The ultimate methane productivity in terms of volatile solids (VS) was determined as 330| 161| 230| 236| 361 L/kg VS from raw pig slurry| filter pressed manure fiber (FPMF)| chemically precipitated manure fiber (CPMF)| maize silage and grass silage respectively. Methane productivity based on mass (L/kg substrate) was significantly higher in FPMF (55 L/kg substrate)| maize silage (68 L/kg substrate) and grass silage (45-124 L/kg substrate (depending on dry solids of feedstock)) as in comparison to raw pig slurry (10 L/kg substrate). The use of these materials as co-substrates with raw pig slurry will increase significantly the biomethane yield per unit feedstock in the biogas plant. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11785,2011,2,4,How natural disturbance triggers political conflict: Bark beetles and the meaning of landscape in the Bavarian Forest,The incidence of natural disturbance in forests is increasing globally as a consequence of global warming. The concomitant large-scale transformation of landscapes can have profound social impacts and trigger political conflict that hampers resource management. This paper explores the link between landscape transformations and political conflict using the example of the bark beetle epidemic in Bavarian Forest National Park| Germany. For a significant part of the local population| the bark beetle represented a threat to their homeland and the post-disturbance landscape of dead wood reflected the dominance of outside interests in land management. This resentment sparked the formation of a local political movement| which was successful in pressing for changes in the current land management policy that were based on the ideal of a green forest landscape that needed to be protected by human intervention. An alternative interpretation of the post-disturbance landscape| however| welcomed it as a step towards authentic wilderness and opposed interventions to control the bark beetle. These contrasting understandings of the post-disturbance landscape underpin the protracted political conflict over the appropriate management of natural disturbance that has been smouldering for more than 20 years. The article concludes that it is vital to understand the cultural meaning of landscapes before adopting a disturbance management policy in order to avoid paralysing political conflict and social unrest. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12655,2011,2,5,HOW NATURAL IS THE RECENT CENTENNIAL WARMING? AN ANALYSIS OF 2249 SURFACE TEMPERATURE RECORDS,We evaluate to what extent the temperature rise in the past 100 years was a trend or a natural fluctuation and analyze 2249 worldwide monthly temperature records from GISS (NASA) with the 100-year period covering 1906-2005 and the two 50-year periods from 1906 to 1955 and 1956 to 2005. No global records are applied. The data document a strong urban heat island effect (UHI) and a warming with increasing station elevation. For the period 1906-2005| we evaluate a global warming of 0.58 degrees C as the mean for all records. This decreases to 0.41 degrees C if restricted to stations with a population of less than 1000 and below 800 meter above sea level. About a quarter of all the records for the 100-year period show a fall in temperatures. Our hypothesis for the analysis is| as generally in the papers concerned with long-term persistence of temperature records| that the observed temperature records are a combination of long-term correlated records with an additional trend| which is caused for instance by anthropogenic CO(2)| the UHI or other forcings. We apply the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and evaluate Hurst exponents between 0.6 and 0.65 for the majority of stations| which is in excellent agreement with the literature and use a method only recently published| which is based on DFA| synthetic records and Monte Carlo simulation. As a result| the probabilities that the observed temperature series are natural have values roughly between 40% and 90%| depending on the stations characteristics and the periods considered. "Natural" means that we do not have within a defined confidence interval a definitely positive anthropogenic contribution and| therefore| only a marginal anthropogenic contribution cannot be excluded. 3471,2011,2,4,How small-scale variation in oyster reef patchiness influences predation on bivalves,As oyster fishing continues to degrade reef habitat along the US Atlantic coast| oyster reefs appear increasingly fragmented on small spatial scales. In outdoor mesocosms| experiments tested how consumption of representatives of 4 different bivalve guilds by each of 3 mesopredators varies between continuous and fine-scale patches of oyster reef habitat. The mesopredator that fed least (stone crab) exhibited no detectable change in consumption on any bivalve (ribbed mussel| bay scallop| hard clam| and 3 size classes of eastern oyster). Consumption of bay scallops by both blue crabs and sheepshead fish was greater in small patches than in continuous oyster reef habitat. Of the bivalve guilds tested| only the scallop possesses swimming motility sufficient to reduce predation| an escape response that would likely leave the bivalve protected within structured habitat in larger continuous oyster reefs. Sheepshead consumed more small oysters in the continuous habitat than in the fine patches| while no other predator-prey interaction exhibited differential feeding as a function of habitat patchiness. Consequently| predation by mesopredators on bivalves can vary with the scale of oyster reef patchiness| but this process may depend upon the bivalve guild. Understanding the role of habitat patchiness on fine scales may be increasingly important in view of the declines in apex predatory sharks leading to mesopredator release| and global climate change directly and indirectly enhancing stone crab abundances| thereby increasing potential predation on bivalves. 12197,2011,2,4,How will fish that evolved at constant sub-zero temperatures cope with global warming? Notothenioids as a case study,Current climate change has raised concerns over the fate of the stenothermal Antarctic marine fauna (animals that evolved to live in narrow ranges of cold temperatures). The present paper focuses on Notothenioidei| a taxonomic group that dominates Antarctic fish. Notothenioids evolved in the Southern Ocean over the last 20 million years| providing an example of a marine species flock with unique adaptations to the cold at morphological| physiological and biochemical levels. Their phenotypic modifications are often accompanied by 'irreversible' genomic losses or gene amplifications. On a micro-evolutionary scale| relatively 'shallow' genetic variation is observed| on account of past fluctuations in population size| and a significant genetic structure is evident| suggesting low population connectivity. These features suggest that Antarctic fish might have relatively little potential to adapt to global warming| at least at a genetic level. The extent of their phenotypic plasticity| which is evident to some degree| awaits further research. 3228,2011,2,4,Human appropriation of aboveground photosynthetic production in the Czech Republic,We assessed human impacts on ecosystems by calculating the proportion of aboveground net primary production appropriated by humans (aHANPP) in the territory of the Czech Republic. The human appropriation of aboveground net primary production reached 21.5 Tg C per year in 2006 or 56% of the annual potential natural productivity. Harvested productivity equivalent aNPP(H) is contributing to the overall appropriation of photosynthetic production by 80%. Considerable productivity losses have been induced by agricultural land conversion and urbanization. While artificial surfaces are responsible for the appropriation of whole ecosystem production| productivity of urban green areas and managed forests can even exceed natural productivity levels. In the period 1990-2000| the aHANPP dropped by 7%| but the indicator shows an increase by over 2% in the period 2000-2006. The indicator of human appropriation of net primary production enables translation of land cover changes into measures of ecosystem services affected by human activities. We found aHANPP to be a suitable indicator of human impacts on ecosystems| as it detects trends and enables spatial mapping of human impacts. 12308,2011,2,2,Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes,Extremes of weather and climate can have devastating effects on human society and the environment(1|2). Understanding past changes in the characteristics of such events| including recent increases in the intensity of heavy precipitation events over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere land area(3-5)| is critical for reliable projections of future changes. Given that atmospheric water-holding capacity is expected to increase roughly exponentially with temperature-and that atmospheric water content is increasing in accord with this theoretical expectation(6-11)-it has been suggested that human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for increases in heavy precipitation(3|5|7). Because of the limited availability of daily observations| however| most previous studies have examined only the potential detectability of changes in extreme precipitation through model-model comparisons(12-15). Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique. Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models| and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation| may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming(16). 11996,2011,2,4,Human Impacts to River Temperature and Their Effects on Biological Processes: A Quantitative Synthesis,Land-use change and water resources management increasingly impact stream and river temperatures and therefore aquatic organisms. Efforts at thermal mitigation are expected to grow in future decades. Yet the biological consequences of both human thermal impacts and proposed mitigation options are poorly quantified. This study provides such context for river thermal management in two ways. First| we summarize the full spectrum of human thermal impacts to help thermal managers consider the relative magnitudes of all impacts and mitigation options. Second| we synthesize biological sensitivity to river temperature shifts using thermal performance curves| which relate organism-level biological processes to temperature. This approach supplements the popular use of thermal thresholds by directly estimating the impact of temperature shifts on the rates of key biological processes (e.g.| growth). Our results quantify a diverse array of human thermal impacts| revealing that human actions tend to increase more than decrease river temperatures. Our results also provide a practical framework in which to quantify the sensitivity of river organisms to such impacts and related mitigation options. Finally| among the data and studies we synthesized| river organisms appear to be more sensitive to temperature above than below their thermal maxima| and fish are more sensitive to temperature change than invertebrates. 12694,2011,2,2,Human-induced changes in wind| temperature and relative humidity during Santa Ana events,The frequency and character of Southern California's Santa Ana wind events are investigated within a 12-km-resolution downscaling of late-20th and mid-21st century time periods of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model global climate change scenario run. The number of Santa Ana days per winter season is approximately 20% fewer in the mid 21st century compared to the late 20th century. Since the only systematic and sustained difference between these two periods is the level of anthropogenic forcing| this effect is anthropogenic in origin. In both time periods| Santa Ana winds are partly katabatically-driven by a temperature difference between the cold wintertime air pooling in the desert against coastal mountains and the adjacent warm air over the ocean. However| this katabatic mechanism is significantly weaker during the mid 21st century time period. This occurs because of the well-documented differential warming associated with transient climate change| with more warming in the desert interior than over the ocean. Thus the mechanism responsible for the decrease in Santa Ana frequency originates from a well-known aspect of the climate response to increasing greenhouse gases| but cannot be understood or simulated without mesoscale atmospheric dynamics. In addition to the change in Santa Ana frequency| we investigate changes during Santa Anas in two other meteorological variables known to be relevant to fire weather conditions-relative humidity and temperature. We find a decrease in the relative humidity and an increase in temperature. Both these changes would favor fire. A fire behavior model accounting for changes in wind| temperature| and relative humidity simultaneously is necessary to draw firm conclusions about future fire risk and growth associated with Santa Ana events. While our results are somewhat limited by a relatively small sample size| they illustrate an observed and explainable regional change in climate due to plausible mesoscale processes. 3388,2011,2,4,Hurricane impact on Thalassia testudinunm (Hydrocharitaceae) beds in the Mexican Caribbean.,Hurricane impact on Thalassia testudinum (Hydrocharitaceae) beds in the Mexican Caribbean. Hurricanes have increased in strength and frequency as a result of global climate change. This research was conducted to study the spatio-temporal distribution and changes of Thalassia testudinum| the dominant species in Bahia de la Ascension (Quintana Roo| Mexico)| when affected by heavy weather conditions. To complete this objective| a 2001 Landsat ETM+ image and the information from 525 sampling stations on morpho-functional and coverage of T. testudinum were used| and the seeds generated for the classification of eight benthic habitats. To quantify the changes caused by two hurricanes| we used two images| one of 1988 (Gilberto) and another of 1995 (Roxanne); other three data sets (2003| 2005 and 2007) were also used to describe the study area without major weather effects. Six categorial maps were obtained and subjected to analysis by 8 Landscape Ecology indexes| that describe the spatial characteristics| structure| function| change of the elements (matrix-patch-corridor)| effects on ecosystems| connectivity| edges| shape and patch habitat fragmentation. Models indicate that T. testudinum may be classified as a continuum (matrix)| since the fragments were not observed intermittently| but as a progression from minimum to maximum areas in reference to their coverage (ecological corridors). The fragments do not have a regular shape| indicating that the impacts are recent and may be due to direct effects (high-intensity hurricanes) or indirect (sediment). Fragments of type "bare soils" have a discontinuous distribution| and are considered to be the sites that have remained stable over a long timescale. While more dense coverage areas ("beds"| "medium prairie" and "prairie") have low fragmentation and high connection of fragments. Features have an irregular perimeter and radial growth of formal; suggesting that the impact of meteors has no effect on the resilience of T. testudinum in this ecosystem| indicating good environmental quality to prow in this bay. Rev. Biol. Trop. 59(1): 385-401. Epub 2011 March 01.
3504,2011,2,4,Hurricane Katrina impacts the breeding bird community in a bottomland hardwood forest of the Pearl River basin| Louisiana,We monitored breeding bird communities and vegetation both before and after Hurricane Katrina category 2 winds severely damaged extensive bottomland hardwood forest of the Pearl River basin| south Louisiana. Many trees were felled by wind| most others were stripped of leaves and branches| and the canopy opened considerably (57%). Blackberry thickets sprouted and expanded to cover almost all of what was previously a patchily open forest understory. The bird community changed distinctively following the hurricane| driven primarily by increased density of species that prefer dense understory (regenerating) habitat. Individual species that increased significantly in density included one year-round resident| Carolina wren| and five breeding migrants| white-eyed vireo| Swainson's warbler| Kentucky warbler| hooded warbler| and yellow-breasted chat. These patterns were predictable responses to the opened canopy and increased density of understory vegetation. However| over three years following the storm| most species| especially canopy breeders| showed no distinct numerical response to the hurricane| which suggests that the initial bird community was resistant to hurricane disturbance. Only one species. Acadian flycatcher| declined significantly after the hurricane| presumably because of loss of its preferred open understory breeding and feeding habitat. Our results thus document and reinforce the important role hurricanes play along the Gulf coast in structuring forest bird communities by altering understory habitat. We expect habitat changes will continue as invasive plant species further change forest community structure| and as large storms increase in frequency in relation to global climate change. Thus| we also expect continued changes to the bird community| which may include additional future declines. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11862,2011,3,4,Hybrid Solid Oxide Fuel Cell and Micro Gas Turbine for Regional Jets,Although it accounts for only 4.2% of the total global warming potential| aviation-generated CO(2) is projected to grow to approximately 5.7% by 2050| faster than any other sector. Rapidly emerging fuel-cell-based technologies could be developed for future replacement of onboard electrical systems in larger more-electric or all-electric aircraft. The Environmentally Friendly Inter City Aircraft Powered by Fuel Cells project| led by Politecnico di Torino in the Sixth Framework Programme| has carried out a feasibility study on all-electric intercity aircraft to provide a preliminary definition of new forms of aircraft systems that can be obtained by fuel cell technologies. Solid oxide fuel cell systems could be advantageous for some aeronautical applications| due to their capability of accepting hydrocarbons fuels with lower pollutant effects (e.g.| natural gas)| especially sustainable biofuels such as second-generation bioethanol. In this paper| the design of a hybrid solid oxide fuel cell and micro gas turbine energy system| as well as the simulation of complete missions of a regional jet| has been performed. The system will be discussed in two fuel configurations| natural gas and bioethanol| and the difference in the system structure and regulation will be discussed. Preliminary estimations on size and weight of these new systems have been carried out. The obtained results are discussed. 3270,2011,2,4,Hydraulic failure and tree dieback are associated with high wood density in a temperate forest under extreme drought,Catastrophic hydraulic failure will likely be an important mechanism contributing to large-scale tree dieback caused by increased frequency and intensity of droughts under global climate change. To compare the susceptibility of 22 temperate deciduous tree and shrub species to hydraulic failure during a record drought in the southeastern USA| we quantified leaf desiccation| native embolism| wood density| stomatal conductance and predawn and midday leaf water potential at four sites with varying drought intensities. At the two driest sites| there was widespread leaf wilting and desiccation| and most species exhibited predawn leaf water potentials of <= 3MPa and >60% loss of xylem conductivity in branches. Although species with high wood density were more resistant to cavitation| they had higher levels of native embolism and greater canopy dieback than species with low wood density. This unexpected result can be explained by the failure of species with dense wood to avert a decline in water potential to dangerous levels during the drought. Leaf water potential was negatively correlated with wood density| and the relationship was strongest under conditions of severe water deficit. Species with low wood density avoided catastrophic embolism by relying on an avoidance strategy that involves partial drought deciduousness| higher sensitivity of stomata to leaf water potential and perhaps greater rooting depth. These species therefore maintained water potential at levels that ensured a greater margin of safety against embolism. These differences among species may mediate rapid shifts in species composition of temperate forests if droughts intensify due to climate change. 12679,2011,2,3,HYDROCLIMATOLOGY OF THE US GULF COAST UNDER GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS,The historical climate record and climate change scenarios of the north--central Gulf of Mexico Coast (roughly from Houston| Texas to Mobile| Alabama) was examined to assess past and future temperature and hydrology of the region. Historical temperature data show an annual temperature pattern with high values in the 1920s-1940s| a drop in annual temperatures in late 1950s| persisting through the 1970s| and then an increase over the past two-plus decades. However| recent temperatures have mostly not reached the highs of previous decades. Annual precipitation is generally increasing| with some climate divisions| in particular those in Mississippi and Alabama| having significant long-term trends. Over the entire record since 1919| there was an increase in rainfall| and that| combined with relatively cool temperatures| led to a 36% increase in runoff. To assess future extremes in regional hydroclimatology| the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were examined for the region. Output from an ensemble of 21 global climate models run with the two emission scenarios indicates a wide range of possible climates in the mid-21st century| centered on the year 2050. The models suggest a warmer Gulf Coast region of about 1.5 degrees C +/- 1 degrees C. Precipitation projections are more uncertain| with conflicting increases and decreases projected by the various models| although most suggest a decrease in annual rainfall across the Gulf Coast. By compounding changing precipitation with increasing temperatures| overall runoff is likely to remain the same or decrease| while deficits (or droughts) could become less severe because of possible increases in summer and autumn precipitation. Impacts to the natural landscape (geomorphology and ecology) would likely be negligible. 3499,2011,2,4,Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin| Northeastern China,Under the background of global climate change| hydrological responses to climate change were investigated in Northeastern China. This study analyses the trends of annual and seasonal temperature| precipitation and streamflow series in Nenjiang River Basin. Correlations between streamflow and meteorological variables were investigated| while parametric method and nonparametric tests were applied to determine the trends and correlations. Data collected from a series of monitoring stations showed significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean temperature versus time| whereas during the whole period the annual and seasonal precipitation in the basin did not exhibit similar trends although temporal and spatial variations were detected. Affected by the precipitation and temperature changes| significant trends of decreasing annual| spring and autumn streamflow were demonstrated; the decrease concentrating mainly on the mainstream and tributaries of the left bank. Correlation analyses revealed strong relationships between the streamflow and meteorological variables in Nenjiang River Basin| and the impacts of climate change on streamflow were complicated. Results from this study will help water resource managers for decision makings that address the consequences of climate change. 3460,2011,2,4,Hydropsychology: the human side of water research,The world's freshwater resources are already under severe stress. The anticipated population increase and global climate change raise further concerns on the future. Transboundary and other shared waters have been the sources of numerous conflicts between the countries and communities sharing them| and there are fears that many of these shared basins will be hotspots for violent conflicts in this century. Proper planning and management of these shared waters will play a key role in resolving future water problems and conflicts. Despite the many existing legal frameworks and bilateral/multilateral agreements| tremendous challenges remain in managing the shared waters. These challenges have scientific| political| economic| environmental| social| cultural| racial| religious| linguistic and other facets. This study discusses the human side of water planning| management and conflicts. The positive and negative effects of water planning and management on human life are presented| with particular emphasis on human behaviour. How these effects| in turn| can shape our perception of water planning and management and motivate us towards specific agenda(s) is also discussed. The water dispute in an inter-state river basin (the Cauvery River basin) in south India is chosen as a representative for discussion. It is argued that studying the transactions between humans and water-related activities should be an integral part of water research. The field of "hydropsychology" is proposed for this kind of study| and a few ideas are also presented for making fundamental advances. 12795,2011,4,4,Hypoxia by degrees: Establishing definitions for a changing ocean,The marked increase in occurrences of low oxygen events on continental shelves coupled with observed expansion of low oxygen regions of the ocean has drawn significant scientific and public attention. With this has come the need for the establishment of better definitions for widely used terms such as "hypoxia" and "dead zones". Ocean chemists and physicists use concentration units such as mu molO(2)/kg for reporting since these units are independent of temperature| salinity and pressure and are required for mass balances and for numerical models of ocean transport. Much of the reporting of dead zone occurrences is in volumetric concentration units of mlO(2)/l or mgO(2)/l for historical reasons. And direct measurements of the physiological state of marine animals require reporting of the partial pressure of oxygen (pO(2)) in matm or kPa since this provides the thermodynamic driving force for molecular transfer through tissue. This necessarily incorporates temperature and salinity terms and thus accommodates changes driven by climate warming and the influence of the very large temperature range around the world where oxygen limiting values are reported. Here we examine the various definitions used and boundaries set and place them within a common framework. We examine the large scale ocean pO(2) fields required for pairing with pCO(2) data for examination of the combined impacts of ocean acidification and global warming. The term "dead zones"| which recently has received considerable attention in both the scientific literature and the press| usually describes shallow| coastal regions of low oxygen caused either by coastal eutrophication and organic matter decomposition or by upwelling of low oxygen waters. While we make clear that bathyal low oxygen waters should not be confused with shallow-water "dead zones"| as deep water species are well adapted| we show that those waters represent a global vast reservoir of low oxygen water which can readily be entrained in upwelling waters and contribute to coastal hypoxia around the world and may be characterized identically. We examine the potential for expansion of those water masses onto continental shelves worldwide| thereby crossing limits set for many not adapted species. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12628,2011,2,4,Ice surface-elevation change and velocity of Qingbingtan glacier No.72 in the Tomor region| Tianshan Mountains| central Asia,Glaciers in the Tomor region of Tianshan Mountains preserve vital water resources. However| these glaciers suffer from strong mass losses in the recent years because of global warming. From 2008 to 2009| a large-scale scientific expedition has been carried out in this region. As an individual reference glacier| the tongue area of Qingbingtan glacier No. 72 was measured by the high precise Real Time Kinematic-Global Position System (RTK-GPS). In this paper| changes of the tongue area of Qingbingtan glacier No.72 has been studied based on topographic map| remote sensing image and the survey during 2008#x2013;2009 field campaign. Results indicated that the ice surface-elevation of the tongue area changed - 0.22 +/- 0.14 m a(-1) from 1964 to 2008. The estimated loss in ice volume was 0.014 +/- 0.009 km(3)| which represented a similar to 20 % decrease from the 1964 volume and was equivalent to average annual mass balance of -0.20 +/- 0.12 m water equivalent for the tongue area during 1964-2008. Terminus retreated by 1852 m| approximately 41 m a(-1)| with the area reduction of 1.533 km(2) (0.034 km(2) a(-1)) from 1964 to 2009. Furthermore| the annual velocity reached to similar to 70 m a(-1). Comparing with the other monitored glaciers in the eastern Tianshan Mountains| Qingbingtan glacier No.72 experienced more intensive in shrinkage| which resulted from the combined effects of climate change and glacier dynamic| providing evidence of the response to climatic warming. 12738,2011,2,4,Ichthyoplankton distribution in South Patagonia| Chile: potential effects of ice melting from the Southern Ice Field,In October-November 2009| an oceanographic survey was carried out between 50 and 53 degrees S off southern Chile| near the Southern Ice Field. The stations near the glacier showed low temperatures (1-3 degrees C) and salinity (< 25)| and high stability (Brunt-Vaisala frequency N > 0.1 cycles s(-1)). Main ichthyoplankton taxa were eggs and larvae of southern sprat Sprattus fuegensis| lightfish Maurolicus parvipinnis| Macrouridae| and southern hake Merluccius australis. The main spawning area of S. fuegensis (similar to 8000 eggs 10 m(-2)) occurred in mixed zones of the adjacent continental shelf| whereas the spawning of M. parvipinnis occurred in intermediate channels associated with medium stability values (N similar to 0.06 cycles s(-1)). Fish egg and larval abundances were null or scarce near the glacier| and the abundance of M. parvipinnis eggs was positively related to the temperature and salinity of the water column| and negatively related to water column stability. Moreover| a negative relationship was observed between seawater density and the diameter of S. fuegensis eggs. The relation between ice melting and ichthyoplankton may have consequences for advective transport and mass mortality of fish eggs and larvae| as well as pelagic-benthic coupling in the Chilean South Patagonia. Global climate change has increased glacier ice melting at high latitudes| and the increased entry of colder| less saline waters in coastal areas may have consequences for the ichthyoplankton in the Chilean Patagonia. 11747,2011,2,4,Identification and Evaluation of Chickpea Germplasm for Tolerance to Heat Stress,Global warming and extreme temperatures are predicted in the future| hence identification of appropriate varieties that could adapt to such changes is imperative for sustaining crop productivity. Thirty-five early maturing chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) germplasm accessions were evaluated for their tolerance to heat stress. Plant traits such as plant width| flowering duration| days to maturity| pod number| seed weight| grain yield and per-day productivity were affected under heat stress. Genotypes differed in their sensitivity to heat stress| and the yield loss among genotypes varied from 10 to 15% of potential yield for every degree increase in temperature beyond the optimum temperature range. Multiple regression analysis indicated that the plant trait expression can be predicted accurately for the assumed change in climate on the basis of mean temperature| daylength| duration of bright sunshine| incident solar radiation| relative humidity| wind velocity| and potential evaporation. Mitigation of heat stress by irrigation and application of additional nitrogen to the crop resulted in sustaining the potential yield (up to 80%). ICC 14346 showed high tolerance to heat stress and could be used as a parent in crop improvement research. ICC 5597| ICC 5829| ICC 6121| ICC 7410| ICC 11916| ICC 13124| ICC 14284| ICC 14368| and ICC 14653 were heat stress tolerant| responsive to irrigation and nitrogen management| and consistently high yielding (>1400 kg ha(-1)) compared with the control ICCV 92944 (1333 kg ha(-1)). 12004,2011,3,4,Identifying Lowest-Emission Choices and Environmental Pareto Frontiers for Wastewater Treatment Wastewater Treatment Input-Output Model based Linear Programming,This article proposes a linear programming model that is based on the wastewater treatment input-output model (W(2)IO) to identify the lowest-emission choice among alternative feasible options for wastewater treatment; this model can be considered as an application of the waste input-output linear programming model (WIO-LP) to wastewater issues. Using the data of the Tokyo metropolitan W(2)IO table| I apply this model to obtain the optimal wastewater treatment options under alternative scenarios. The Pareto frontiers of environmental loads are derived to show the trade-off relationships among various types of environmental load and the effect of the introduction of high-temperature incineration of dewatered sludge on the generation of environmental loads. The main conclusion of the study is that when all three types of environmental load (landfill level| global warming potential| and chemical oxygen demand) are considered| the introduction of high-temperature incineration causes the widening of the Pareto frontier of environmental loads and also causes it to move closer to the origin. 3359,2011,4,4,IDENTIFYING SPATIAL PATTERNS AND DYNAMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE USING RECURRENCE QUANTIFICATION ANALYSIS: A CASE STUDY OF QINGHAI-TIBET PLATEAU,The climate system is a prototypical nonlinear complex system exhibiting nonstationary temporal variation and complicated spatial patterns. One of the ideal locations for studying climate systems is the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP)| which is considered an amplifier of global climate change. In this study| recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) was used to analyze the annual temperature series of 17 stations in different climate zones of the QTP| based on station observation data of daily temperature (minimum| maximum and mean) from 1961 to 2008. Spatial patterns and variation of RQA indices of Determinism (DET) and Kolmogorov (K(2)) entropy suggested that there are marked differences in temperature pattern in the QTP. Correlation analysis between RQA indices of temperature series and environmental factors| such as topographical variation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index suggest that both the source and effect of climate complexity are nonlinear. Results of this study indicate that RQA measurement was indeed an efficient approach to analyze the dynamics of a climate system. 12837,2011,2,4,Imaging groundwater beneath a rugged proglacial moraine,With the changing precipitation patterns and melting of mountain glaciers and permafrost that result from global warming| information on the distribution of groundwater in mountainous terrains is becoming increasingly important for developing prudent resource and hazard management strategies. Obtaining this information across topographically craggy and variably frozen ground in a cost-effective and nonintrusive manner is challenging. We introduce a modified 2D surface nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) tomographic technique that allows us to account for substantial variations in surface topography in locating and quantifying groundwater occurrences in rugged mountains. Because contact with the ground is not necessary| it is a rare geophysical technique not affected by sensor-to-ground coupling problems common in high mountain environments. To demonstrate the efficacy of the tomographic imaging scheme| we invert a large multioffset surface NMR data set collected across a partially ice-cored proglacial terminal moraine in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Our preferred model contains a 2- to 5-m-thick water layer| the top of which has practically the same elevation as the surface of a nearby lake and the bottom of which coincides with bedrock resolved in companion seismic and ground-penetrating radar studies. 3408,2011,2,4,Immune defence under extreme ambient temperature,Owing to global climate change| the extreme weather conditions are predicted to become more frequent| which is suggested to have an even greater impact on ecological interactions than the gradual increase in average temperatures. Here| we examined whether exposure to high ambient temperature affects immune function of the great pond snail (Lymnaea stagnalis). We quantified the levels of several immune traits from snails maintained in a non-stressful temperature (15 degrees C) and in an extreme temperature (30 degrees C) that occurs in small ponds during hot summers. We found that snails exposed to high temperature had weaker immune defence| which potentially predisposes them to infections. However| while phenoloxidase and antibacterial activity of snail haemolymph were reduced at high temperature| haemocyte concentration was not affected. This suggests that the effect of high temperature on snail susceptibility to infections may vary across different pathogens because different components of invertebrate immune defence have different roles in resistance. 12811,2011,3,4,Impact of biochar application to a Mediterranean wheat crop on soil microbial activity and greenhouse gas fluxes,Biochar has been recently proposed as a management strategy to improve crop productivity and global warming mitigation. However| the effect of such approach on soil greenhouse gas fluxes is highly uncertain and few data from field experiments are available. In a field trial| cultivated with wheat| biochar was added to the soil (3 or 6 kg m(-2)) in two growing seasons (2008/2009 and 2009/2010) so to monitor the effect of treatments on microbial parameters 3 months and 14 months after char addition. N(2)O| CH(4) and CO(2) fluxes were measured in the field during the first year after char addition. Biochar incorporation into the soil increased soil pH (from 5.2 to 6.7) and the rates of net N mineralization| soil microbial respiration and denitrification activity in the first 3 months| but after 14 months treated and control plots did not differ significantly. No changes in total microbial biomass and net nitrification rate were observed. In char treated plots| soil N(2)O fluxes were from 26% to 79% lower than N(2)O fluxes in control plots| excluding four sampling dates after the last fertilization with urea| when N(2)O emissions were higher in char treated plots. However| due to the high spatial variability| the observed differences were rarely significant. No significant differences of CH(4) fluxes and field soil respiration were observed among different treatments| with just few exceptions. Overall the char treatments showed a minimal impact on microbial parameters and GHG fluxes over the first 14 months after biochar incorporation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12140,2011,2,4,Impact of climate change on agriculture in eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar states (India),Production of crops is greatly influenced by weather phenomena and therefore any change in climate will have major effects on crop yield and productivity. Using NYD analysis for prediction of crop yield on seasonal basis| it has been observed that maximum temperature may cause the reduction in yield of rice in Eastern Uttar Pradesh by 1.0 to 1.1% per ha by 2020. Similarly| minimum temperature may decrease the yield of rice by 1.5 to 1.9% per ha in Eastern Uttar Pradesh. From future scenario of rainfall it was observed that south-west monsoonal rainfall would be the major factor for controlling the yield of rice. The role of maximum temperature for wheat production in Bihar state is more significant as compared to Eastern Uttar Pradesh. The model predicts that wheat yield may decrease by 5-6% in Bihar state due to increase in maximum temperature by the end of 2080 whereas this decrement in Eastern Uttar Pradesh may be 1.5-2.0%. 3372,2011,2,4,Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of dry season Boro rice in northwest Bangladesh,Climate change will affect irrigation water demand of rice via changes in rice physiology and phenology| soil water balances| evapotranspiration and effective precipitation. As agriculture is the main sector of water use in Bangladesh| estimation of the agricultural water demand in the changing environment is essential for long-term water resources development and planning. In the present paper| a study has been carried out to estimate the change of irrigation water demand in dry-season Boro rice field in northwest Bangladesh in the context of global climate change. The study shows that there will be no appreciable changes in total irrigation water requirement due to climate change. However| there will be an increase in daily use of water for irrigation. As groundwater is the main source of irrigation in northwest Bangladesh| higher daily pumping rate in dry season may aggravate the situation of groundwater scarcity in the region. 12856,2011,2,4,Impact of climate change on runoff in the upper part of the Euphrates basin,Among the processes most affected by global warming are the hydrological cycle and water resources. Regions where the majority of runoff consists of snowmelt are very sensitive to climate change. It is significant to express the relationship between climate change and snow hydrology and it is imperative to perform climate change impact studies on snow hydrology at global and regional scales. Climate change impacts on the mountainous Upper Euphrates Basin were investigated in this paper. First| historical data trend analysis of significant hydro-meteorological data is presented. Available future climate data are then explained| and| finally| future climate data are used in hydrological models| which are calibrated and validated using historical hydro-meteorological data| and future streamflow is projected for the period 2070-2100. The hydrological model outcomes indicate substantial runoff decreases in summer and spring season runoff| which will have significant consequences on water sectors in the Euphrates Basin. 12832,2011,2,4,Impact of climate change on the temporal and regional occurrence of Cercospora leaf spot in Lower Saxony,The effect of climate change on the temporal and regional occurrence of Cercospora leaf spot (CLS) of sugar beet in Lower Saxony is analysed using the forecasting model CERCBET1. Based on the hourly weather parameters temperature and relative humidity| this model predicts three events: the time when 1%| 50% and 100% of the fields in a region are infested (T1| T50 and T100). Input data are the results of the regional climate model REMO. The effects of climate change are studied in three time windows: a baseline period B (1971-2000)| a medium-term period M (2021-2050) and a long-term period L (2071-2100). A comparison of the time windows B and M shows that T1 has an earlier occurrence by 5.2 days| T50 by 6.7 days and T100 by 10.6 days. In period L| T1 is reached 22.9 days earlier than in period B; the occurrence of T50 and TWO is 25.2 and 32.7 days earlier. For a regional risk analysis| Lower Saxony is subdivided into four interpolation areas. In all three time windows| in every season the epidemic starts in the west and ends in the north| while the east and the south are consistently in the middle of the timeline. One consequence of the earlier occurrence could be an increase of the frequency of fungicide application but from today's perspective the consequences are hardly predictable due to the lack of knowledge about multiple interactions between host and pathogen and the social-economic developments in the future.
11835,2011,2,3,Impact of climate change on water availability in the Macquarie-Castlereagh River Basin in Australia,The impact of future climate on runoff generation and the implications of these changes for management of water resources in a river basin are investigated by running these changes through catchment and river system models. Two conceptual daily rainfall-runoff models are used to simulate runoff across the Macquarie-Castlereagh region for historical (1895-2006) and future (similar to 2030) climate based on outputs from 15 of the 23 IPCC AR4 GCMs for the A1B global warming scenario. The estimates of future runoff are used as inputs to the river system model. The mean annual historical rainfall averaged across the Macquarie-Castlereagh region is 544 mm and the simulated runoff is 34 and 30 mm for SIMHYD and Sacramento rainfall-runoff models| respectively. The mean annual future rainfall and runoff across the region are projected to decrease. The modelling results show a median estimate of a 5% reduction for SIMHYD (50% confidence interval -11 to +7%) and a 7% reduction for Sacramento (50% confidence interval -15 to +8%) in mean annual runoff under a similar to 2030 climate for the region. The results from the river system modelling indicate that under the similar to 2030 climate scenario| the median of general security and supplementary diversions are projected to decrease by 4% (50% confidence interval -10 to +5%) and 2% (50% confidence interval -5 to +3%) respectively for the SIMHYD inflows and 8% (50% confidence interval -17 to +6%) and 5% (50% confidence interval -11 to +3%) for the Sacramento inflows. The future annual and seasonal storage volumes for the Burrendong Dam and inflows at all major locations across the region are projected to be lower than the historical records. Copyright. (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 3178,2011,2,4,Impact of climate induced hypoxia on calcifying biota in the Arabian Sea: An evaluation from the micropaleontological records of the Indian margin,High biological productivity combined with the poor ventilation produces severe oxygen depletion (hypoxia) in upper intermediate waters of the Arabian Sea. The naturally developed Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) is one of the most pronounced low oxygen ocean environments known today. The OMZ impinges the Indian margin where oxygen concentration reaches values less than 0.05 ml/l leading denitrification. In recent studies| it has been observed that the OMZ strength has varied considerably in the past| in tune with the global climate change. But the effect of changes in natural mid-water hypoxic environment on the marine biota particularly of the eastern Arabian Sea is unknown. Here| we analyzed 30|000 yr record of temporal changes in two major groups of marine calcifying microfauna pteropods secreting aragonitic shells and foraminifera secreting calcitic shells in terms of abundance and diversity variations. This study will provide an insight into our understanding of potential impact of rising atmospheric CO(2) on marine ecosystem. 12778,2011,2,3,Impact of climate warming upon the fish assemblages of the Portuguese coast under different scenarios,Impact of sea-surface warming upon the fish assemblages of the Portuguese coast was assessed under two scenarios| the A2 and the B2 scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios)| which when coupled with a regional circulation model HadRM3 predict 1 and 2A degrees C of sea-surface warming until the year 2100. Species richness increased in the Portuguese coast. In both scenarios| there was a latitudinal gradient in the amount of lost and gained species| increasing from north to south. An anomaly in the latitudinal gradient of species richness was detected in the southernmost area| which presented the lowest species richness of all areas| in the A2 scenario| and appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Very few species were totally eliminated from Portuguese waters. For the Portuguese coast as a whole| there were more new than lost species| in both scenarios. Most of the new species were commercially important species| in the majority subtropical in the north and tropical in the south| mainly demersal and reef-associated. Reef-associated species also increased in relative importance. A commercial opportunity for fisheries may arise from climate warming| since most of the new species were commercial species and not many commercial species were lost. An increasing gradient from north to south was detected in the colonization of new species of herbivores| planktivores| and omnivores| as well as lower mean trophic level| which might have consequences for the future of trophic webs. 12421,2011,2,2,Impact of declining intermediate-water oxygen on deepwater fishes in the California Current,Although declining oxygen concentration has been reported for the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) of the tropical oceans and the North Pacific Ocean| consistent with model predictions of the effects of global warming| its ecological impacts are poorly understood. We report the apparent impact of declining oxygen on midwater fishes within the OMZ of the southern California Current (CC). Principal component analysis of the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) ichthyoplankton time series from 1951 to 2008 indicates that the dominant temporal pattern (principal component 1 [PC1]) represents the marked decline of the region's mesopelagic fishes during periods of reduced oxygen. Of the 27 taxa with loadings > 0.5 on PC1| 24 were mesopelagic. PC1 was strongly correlated with intermediate-water oxygen concentrations (r = 0.75| p < 0.05)| which were about 20% lower in the past decade and the 1950s than in the period from 1970 to 1995. The abundance of mesopelagic fishes represented by PC1 was reduced| on average| by 63% between periods of high and low oxygen concentrations. We hypothesize that the underlying mechanism is the shoaling of the hypoxic boundary layer during periods of reduced oxygen| which renders the mesopelagic fauna more vulnerable to visually orienting predators. The mesopelagic fish fauna provides a vital trophodynamic link between the marine plankton and many higher predators. The decline of deepwater fish populations has profound implications for commercial fisheries| marine food webs and marine conservation: climate models predict a 20 to 40% decline in global deepwater oxygen concentrations over the coming century. 12761,2011,3,4,Impact of Eucalyptus Leaves as Biofertilizer : A Remedy to Global Warming And Biodiversity Conservation,Present paper deals with the biochemical impact of Eucalyptus leaves as biofertilizer on the seedling growth in Vigna mungo (L) Hepper. Aqueous extract of dried leaves of Eucalyptus citriodora in various concentrations were tested on the seedling growth of Vigna mungo (L) Hepper to standardize the optimum doses.
12215,2011,4,3,Impact of Global Ocean Surface Warming on Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction,Surface air temperature (SAT) over the globe| particularly the Northern Hemisphere continents| has rapidly risen over the last 2-3 decades| leading to an abrupt shift toward a warmer climate state after 1997/98. Whether the terrestrial warming might be caused by local response to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations or by sea surface temperature (SST) rise is recently in dispute. The SST warming itself may be driven by both the increasing GHG forcing and slowly varying natural processes. Besides| whether the recent global warming might affect seasonal-to-interannual climate predictability is an important issue to be explored. Based on the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) climate prediction system in which only observed SSTs are assimilated for coupled model initialization| the present study shows that the historical SST rise plays a key role in driving the intensified terrestrial warming over the globe. The SST warming trend| while negligible for short lead predictions| has substantial impact on the climate predictability at long lead times (>1 yr) particularly in the extratropics. The tropical climate predictability| however| is little influenced by global warming. Given a perfect warming trend and/or a perfect model| global SAT and precipitation could be predicted beyond two years in advance with an anomaly correlation skill above similar to 0.6. Without assimilating ocean subsurface observations| model initial conditions show a strong spurious cooling drift of subsurface temperature; this is caused by large negative surface heat flux damping arising from the SST-nudging initialization. The spurious subsurface cooling drift acts to weaken the initial SST warming trend during model forecasts| leading to even negative trends of global SAT and precipitation at long lead times and hence deteriorating the global climate predictability. Concerning the important influence of the subsurface temperature on the global SAT trend| future efforts are required to develop a good scheme for assimilating subsurface information particularly in the extratropical oceans. 11743,2011,2,4,Impact of global warming on European tidal estuaries: some evidence of northward migration of estuarine fish species,The aim of this study was to determine whether the latitudinal distribution of fish species that use estuaries to complete their entire life cycle has shifted northward as an expected consequence of global warming. The mean latitude of past fish species distributions found in 1970s' literature was compared with the mean latitude of distributions today based on fish density indices collected in 55 tidal estuaries along the Atlantic European seaboard| from Portugal to Scotland. Among the 15 most common species| 11 displayed a positive difference between current and past mean latitudes suggesting a northward shift of the populations. Using the occurrence of subtropical species in temperate areas as an indicator of water warming| the northernmost range limit of 10 subtropical species was subsequently focused on. Six of them were recorded up to their past northern latitudinal limit. These results reinforced the idea that a number of fish species associated to estuaries have migrated northwards over the last 30 years| possibly due to water warming. These ecological changes can get important managerial implications| i.e. in the assessment of the ecological status in European directives. 12500,2011,2,4,IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON MONSOON VARIABILITY IN PAKISTAN,This study is based on fifty years (1951-2000) data of temperature and rainfall from six different stations of Pakistan. The selection of the stations is based on hilly areas that are totally dependant on rains. This study is divided into three parts Pre-Monsoon (April-May)| Summer Monsoon (June-August) and Post Monsoon (September-October). Variation trends are analyzed based on the processed data that temperature is increasing during Pre and Post Monsoon while rainfall has over all decreasing trend during the study period. Pakistan needs better prediction of Monsoon| accurate calculation of water storage and losses| particularly for the agriculture use. 11590,2011,2,2,Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model,In this study| a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model| so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO(2) concentration for the B1| A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres| retreat of glaciers and sea-ice| with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs| reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. 11668,2011,2,3,Impact of high-temperature stress on rice plant and its traits related to tolerance,The predicted 2-4 degrees C increment in temperature by the end of the 21st Century poses a threat to rice production. The impact of high temperatures at night is more devastating than day-time or mean daily temperatures. Booting and flowering are the stages most sensitive to high temperature| which may sometimes lead to complete sterility. Humidity also plays a vital role in increasing the spikelet sterility at increased temperature. Significant variation exists among rice germplasms in response to temperature stress. Flowering at cooler times of day| more pollen viability| larger anthers| longer basal dehiscence and presence of long basal pores are some of the phenotypic markers for high-temperature tolerance. Protection of structural proteins| enzymes and membranes and expression of heat shock proteins (HSPs) are some of the biochemical processes that can impart thermo-tolerance. All these traits should be actively exploited in future breeding programmes for developing heat-resistant cultivars. Replacement of heat-sensitive cultivars with heat-tolerant ones| adjustment of sowing time| choice of varieties with a growth duration allowing avoidance of peak stress periods| and exogenous application of plant hormones are some of the adaptive measures that will help in the mitigation of forecast yield reduction due to global warming. 11636,2011,3,2,Impact of hydrogen on the environment,The present work considers the impact of hydrogen fuel on the environment within the cycles of its generation and combustion. Hydrogen has been portrayed by the media as a fuel that is environmentally clean because its combustion results in the formation of harmless water. However| hydrogen first must be generated. The effect of hydrogen generation on the environment depends on the production process and the related by-products. Hydrogen available on the market at present is mainly generated by using steam reforming of natural gas| which is a fossil fuel. Its by-product is CO(2)| which is a greenhouse gas and its emission results in global warming and climate change. Therefore| hydrogen generated from fossil fuels is contributing to global warming to the similar extent as direct combustion of the fossil fuels. On the other hand hydrogen obtained from renewable energy| such solar energy| is environmentally clean during the cycles of its generation and combustion. Consequently| the introduction of hydrogen economy must be accompanied by the development of hydrogen that is environmentally friendly. The present work considers several aspects related to the generation and utilisation of hydrogen obtained by steam reforming and solar energy conversion (solar-hydrogen). Copyright (C) 2011| Hydrogen Energy Publications| LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12533,2011,2,4,Impact of monsoon-driven surface ocean processes on a coral off Port Blair on the Andaman Islands and their link to North Atlantic climate variations,North Atlantic climate variations are reflected in sedimentary records from the northern Indian Ocean in which two basins| the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal| are strongly affected by the monsoon. Contrary to the Bay of Bengal the Arabian Sea plays an important role in the global marine nitrogen cycle. In its mid-water oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) bioavailable fixed nitrogen is reduced to nitrogen gas (NO(3)(-) -> N(2))| whereas oxygen concentrations are slightly above the threshold of nitrate reduction in the OMZ of the Bay of Bengal. A coral colony (Porites lutea) growing south of Port Blair on the Andaman Islands in the Bay of Bengal was studied for its response to changes in the monsoon system and its link to temperature changes in the North Atlantic Ocean| between 1975 and 2006. Its linear extension rates| delta(13)C and delta(18)O values measured within the coral skeleton reveal a strong seasonality| which seems to be caused by the monsoon-driven reversal of the surface ocean circulation. The sampling site appears to be influenced by low salinity Bay of Bengal Water during the NE monsoon (boreal winter) and by the high salinity Arabian Sea Water during the SW monsoon in summer. The high salinity Arabian Sea Water circulates along with the Summer Monsoon Current (S-MC) from the Arabia Sea into the Bay of Bengal. Decreasing delta(18)O and reconstructed salinity values correlate to the increasing SSTs in the North Atlantic Ocean indicating a reduced influence of the S-MC at the sampling site in the course of northern hemispheric warming. During such periods oxygen depletion became stronger in the OMZ of the Arabian Sea as indicated by the sedimentary records. A reduced propagation of oxygen-depleted high salinity Arabian Sea Water into the Bay of Bengal could be a mechanism maintaining oxygen concentration above the threshold of nitrate reduction in the OMZ of the Bay of Bengal in times of global warming. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12420,2011,2,4,IMPACT OF OCEAN WARMING AND OCEAN ACIDIFICATION ON MARINE INVERTEBRATE LIFE HISTORY STAGES: VULNERABILITIES AND POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENCE IN A CHANGING OCEAN,Global warming and increased atmospheric CO(2) are causing the oceans to warm| decrease in pH and become hypercapnic. These stressors have deleterious impacts on marine invertebrates. Increasing temperature has a pervasive stimulatory effect on metabolism until lethal levels are reached| whereas hypercapnia has a narcotic effect. Ocean acidification is a major threat to calcifying larvae because it decreases availability of the carbonate ions required for skeletogenesis and also exerts a direct pH effect on physiology. Marine invertebrate propagules live in a multistressor world and climate change stressors are adding to the mix. Ocean pH| pCO(2) and CaCO(3) covary and will change simultaneously with temperature| challenging our ability to predict future outcomes for marine biota. To address questions of future vulnerabilities| data on the thermo- and pH/pCO(2) tolerance of fertilization and development in marine invertebrates are reviewed in the context of the change in the oceans that are forecast to occur over the next 100-200 years. Gametes and fertilization in many invertebrates exhibit a broad tolerance to warming and acidification beyond stressor values projected for 2100. Available data show that all development stages are highly sensitive to warming. Larvae may be particularly sensitive to acidification/hypercapnia. Embryos that develop through the bottleneck of mortality due to warming may succumb as larvae to acidification. Early juveniles may be vulnerable to skeletal dissolution| although warming may diminish the negative impact of acidification on calcification. The effects of climate change stressors and their interaction differ among life history stages and species. Multistressor experiments show that if thermal thresholds are breached| embryos may not reach the calcifying stage. If the bottleneck for species persistence is embryonic thermotolerance| then the question of compromised calicification due to acidification may not be relevant. Our limited knowledge of the interactive effects of climate change stressors is a major knowledge gap. Although climate change is deleterious for development in a broad range of marine invertebrates| some species and regional faunas will be more resilient than others. This has implications for persistence| faunal shifts| species invasions and community function in a changing ocean. 12840,2011,2,4,Impact of sea level rise and over-pumping on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers,Climate change| sea level rise| over-pumping and saltwater intrusion present some of the future challenges of water resources management in coastal areas. Over-abstraction is considered one of the main causes of seawater intrusion and the rise in sea levels accelerates the intrusion. With the combined impact of sea level rise and over-pumping the problem becomes exacerbated and requires urgent solutions. Previous studies have mainly focused on the study of impact of sea level rise or over-abstraction on seawater intrusion separately and their combined effects have not been studied in the literature. This paper presents application of a coupled transient density-dependent finite element model to simulate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers and investigates the individual and combined effects of likely sea level rise and over-pumping on seawater intrusion. Three scenarios are considered: rise in sea levels due to climate change| decline in groundwater table due to over-pumping and combination of sea level rise and over-pumping. The results show that| in the case study considered in this paper| the rise in the sea level moved the transition zone inland by about 5%. However| the combination of sea level rise and over-pumping resulted in further inland movement of the transition zone (about 8%). The amount of intrusion greatly depends on the depth| size and properties of the aquifer. While the intrusion is a few metres in a small aquifer| it could be several kilometres in a large aquifer. 12466,2011,2,4,Impact of surface ocean acidification on the CO(2) absorption rate,The rising level of atmospheric CO(2) and consequently the acidification of the surface ocean affect the CO(2) absorption rate. However| there are no mathematical models to describe the impacts of acidification on the rate of CO(2) absorption. Therefore| the objective of this study was to develop simple mathematical models to describe the dependence of the CO(2) absorption rate on the pH of the surface ocean. The developed models predict that the CO(2) absorption rate is enhanced with acidification directly proportional to the increase in the abundance of H(2)CO(3)* in the surface ocean. In addition| the models predict that the increasing rate of CO(2) absorption reflects the increasing rate of increase of CO(2) in the atmosphere. 12725,2011,2,4,Impact of the Indian Ocean high pressure system on winter precipitation over western and southwestern Australia,Previous studies have linked ongoing winter drought in southwest Western Australia (SWWA) to changes in local| as well as large-area| sea-level pressure. Because the area of SWWA occupies only a few grid points of a typical global climate model (GCM)| it is difficult to infer the possible role of global climate change in the drought in SWWA. Since the Indian Ocean High is a robust and large scale feature of atmospheric general circulation| it is simulated qualitatively in all GCMs. A quantitative comparison of the simulated past changes in its pressure and position in a GCM with those found in reanalysis data call be used to verify its suitability ill projecting future changes in winter rainfall in southwest Western Australia. This paper examines the linkages between changes in the Indian Ocean High and rainfall in SWWA| as well as a larger section of Western Australia. By introducing objective indices for area-weighted pressure| the area-weighted latitude and longitude positions of the High| this analysis shows that winter rainfall in a large section of Western Australia and in SWWA is significantly correlated with longitudinal displacement of the Indian Ocean High. Rainfall in SWWA is also correlated with the area-averaged pressure of the High. A regression model of May to August rainfall in SWWA using the pressure and longitude of the Indian Ocean High as independent variables explains 52 per cent of the rainfall variance during 1951-2008. 12127,2011,5,4,Impact of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum on the macrobenthic community: Ichnological record from the Zumaia section| northern Spain,Trace fossil assemblages from the latest Paleocene to the earliest Eocene were significantly affected by the environmental perturbation of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). High-resolution ichnological analysis shows well marked different ichnological features pre-| syn-| and post-event. A well developed normal| tiered burrowing community is present in the sediments below the PETM| indicating oxic conditions and normal benthic food availability. During the PETM the record of trace fossil producers disappeared gradually but rapidly| reflecting the global increase in temperature| and the concentration of benthic food in the very shallow surface layer and| probably| the local depletion of oxygen within the sediments| although probably not true anoxia. The environmental perturbation significantly affected the whole benthic habitat| as shown by the correspondence with the main phase of the benthic foraminiferal extinction. After the PETM| the normal| tiered burrowing community recovered gradually and slowly| in a delayed return to pre-PETM environmental conditions. The changes in the trace fossil assemblage thus document the impact of the PETM on the macrobenthic community| a decline in oxygen levels during the PETM in a globally perturbed habitat due to global warming and the similarities and differences in the response of micro- and macrobenthic communities to global phenomena. Thus| ichnological analysis reveals as a very useful additional tool to understanding atmosphere-ocean dynamic during PETM and a potential way in future climate research. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12272,2011,2,3,Impact of two different types of El Nino events on the Amazon climate and ecosystem productivity,The Amazon basin plays an important role in the global carbon budget. Interannual climate variability associated with El Nino can affect the Amazon ecosystem carbon balance. In recent years| studies have suggested that there are two different types of El Ninos: eastern-Pacific (EP) El Nino and central-Pacific (CP) El Nino. The impacts of two types of El Nino on the Amazon climate and Amazon ecosystem are analyzed in the study. A composite method has been applied to highlight the common features for the EP- and CP-El Nino events using observational data| IPCC-AR4 model output. Potential impacts of the two different types of El Nino on ecosystem carbon sequestration over the Amazon have been investigated using a process-based biogeochemical model| the Biome-BioGeochemical Cycles model (Biome-BGC). Below-normal rainfall is observed year round in northern| central and eastern Amazonia during EP-El Nino years. During CP-El Nino years| negative rainfall anomalies are observed in most of the Amazon during the austral summer wet season| while there is average or above-average precipitation in other seasons. EP- and CP-El Nino events produce strikingly different precipitation anomaly pattern in the tropical and subtropical Andes during the austral fall season: wetter conditions prevail during EP-El Nino years and drier conditions during CP-El Nino years. Temperatures are above-average year round throughout tropical South America during EP-El Nino events| especially during austral summer. During CP-El Nino events| average or slightly above-average temperatures prevail in the tropics| but these temperatures are less extreme than EP year's temperature except in austral fall. These precipitation and temperature anomalies influence ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration throughout the Amazon. Using the Biome-BGC model| we find that net ecosystem production (NEP) in the EP-El Nino years is below average| in agreement with most previous studies; such results indicate that the Amazon region acts as a net carbon source to the atmosphere during EP-El Nino years. In the CP-El Nino years| NEP does not differ significantly from its climatological value| suggesting that the Amazon forest remains a carbon sink for the atmosphere. Thus| even if CP-El Nino events increase in frequency or amplitude under global warming climate as predicted in some Global Climate Models| the Amazon rainforest may remain a carbon sink to the atmosphere during El Nino years in the near future. 12567,2011,2,3,Impacts from Climate Change and Adaptation Responses on Energy Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Toronto-Niagara Region| Canada,Climate change may impact the energy sector directly and indirectly. The objective of this study is to develop a systematic approach for assessing impacts of climate change and adaptation response as well as the growing population on energy economy and greenhouse gas emissions. Such an approach was based on regional energy systems characterization|climate change scenario analysis| vulnerability assessment| energy systems modeling| and climate change policy analysis. The developed methodology is then applied to the Toronto-Niagara Region| Canada. The results suggested that| through modeling energy demand sensitivity to temperature variations within an energy systems management framework| the approach can effectively reflect the impacts from climate change and adaptation response| not only on energy demands and supplies but also on various energy-related technologies and greenhouse gas emissions. It can reflect the system's interactive and dynamic complexities quantitatively; thus| it could provide robust decision bases for supporting effective energy systems management and sustainable energy development under changing climatic conditions. 3250,2011,3,4,Impacts of carbon motivated border tax adjustments on competitiveness across regions in China,China is a large developing country with high carbon intensity. It is likely that China will have to face the challenge of CBTA (carbon motivated border tax adjustments) in future. Meanwhile| CBTA would create price gap between CBTA users and target countries| and change the competitiveness of different producers. Under such circumstances| this paper seeks to contribute to the debate on CBTA by focusing on the potential impacts of CBTA on different regions of China from a perspective of competitiveness. We adopt two geographical divides in China (eastern-central-western zones| high-trade-openness to low-trade-openness regions)| and simulate the potential impacts across regions through a general equilibrium model. Our simulation results show that CBTA would affect competitiveness of different producers| their comparative advantages| relative trade shares| outputs and emissions. CBTA would induce structure change of the economy| and result in a shift of industrial output toward non-industrial output. There are significant differences in the effects of CBTA among different regions in China. CBTA would result in a relocation of outputs across regions in China. Therefore| CBTA would also have impact on China's regional development policy. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12119,2011,2,4,Impacts of climate change in a global hotspot for temperate marine biodiversity and ocean warming,Temperate Australia is a global hotspot for marine biodiversity and its waters have experienced well-above global average rates of ocean warming. We review the observed impacts of climate change (e.g. warming| ocean acidification| changes in storm patterns) on subtidal temperate coasts in Australia and assess how these systems are likely to respond to further change. Observed impacts are region specific with the greatest number of species responses attributable to climate change reported in south-eastern Australia| where recent ocean warming has been most pronounced. Here| a decline of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) and poleward range extension of a key herbivore (sea urchin) and other trophically important reef organisms has occurred. Although| evidence of changes on other coastlines around Australia is limited| we suggest that this is due to a lack of data rather than lack of change. Because of the east-west orientation of the south coast| most of Australia's temperate waters are found within a narrow latitudinal band| where any southward movement of isotherms is likely to affect species across very large areas. Future increases in temperature are likely to result in further range shifts of macroalgae and associated species| with range contractions and local extinctions to be expected for species that have their northern limits along the southern coastline. While there is currently no evidence of changes attributable to non-temperature related climate impacts| potentially due to a lack of long-term observational data| experimental evidence suggests that ocean acidification will result in negative effects on calcifying algae and animals. More importantly| recent experiments suggest the combined effects of climate change and non-climate stressors (overharvesting| reduced water quality) will lower the resilience of temperate marine communities to perturbations (e.g. storms| diseases| and introduced species)| many of which are also predicted to increase in frequency and/or severity. Thus climate change is likely to| both by itself and in synergy with other stressors| impose change to southern Australian coastal species| including important habitat-forming algae and the associated ecological functioning of temperate coasts. Management of local and regional-scale stresses may increase the resistance of temperate marine communities to climate stressors and as such| provides an attractive tool for building resilience in temperate systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12313,2011,2,3,Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions,The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10|000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to <2 degrees C| current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The "Global 200" comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional biodiversity [Olson DM| Dinerstein E (2002) Ann Mo Bot Gard 89:199-224]. We assess the likelihood that| by 2070| these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in 1961-1990. Using >600 realizations from climate model ensembles| we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns >2 SDs (2 sigma) of the 1961-1990 baseline| including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of <2 degrees C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions| and mangroves| face extreme conditions earliest| some with <1 degrees C warming. In contrast| few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average| precipitation regimes do not exceed 2s of the baseline period| although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further| the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100. 12286,2011,4,4,Impacts of diurnal temperature cycles on the geothermal regime on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,This study investigates whether the diurnal temperature cycle affects the geothermal regime on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. To separately characterize this effect| the impact of climatic warming on the ground's thermal regime is eliminated by setting the global warming rate to 0 degrees C/year. The diurnal temperature cycle at the natural ground surface is denoted as sinusoidal functions with amplitudes of 0| 5| 8| and 12 degrees C| respectively. A one-dimensional heat conduction model was utilized to compute the geo-temperature under the natural ground surface| eliminating the effect of geometric boundaries| such as the roadway's embankment| on the geothermal regime. The results show that the diurnal temperature cycle does affect the geothermal regime as (1) under the same mean annual ground temperature| the higher diurnal temperature fluctuation amplitude (DTFA) on the ground surface| the thinner the active layer; (2) the higher the DTFA| the colder the underlying soil. An analysis of the heat flow at the ground surface showed that the diurnal temperature cycle resulted in a net negative heat balance at the earth's surface. This heat loss induced by the diurnal temperature cycle cools the underlying soil. The results and analysis suggest that| currently| the documented numerical model which ignores the diurnal temperature cycle overestimates the warming of the underlying soil. This overestimation| if the DTFA at ground surface is 12 degrees C| would be up to 0.4 degrees C. Considering that pavement surface usually undergoes high diurnal temperature cycles| the impact of the DTFA on pavement subgrade's frost conditions and on the pavement deformation is simply discussed. Published by Elsevier B.V. 12425,2011,2,3,Impacts of extreme air temperatures on cyanobacteria in five deep peri-Alpine lakes,Cyanobacteria are of major interest in freshwater ecosystems| since they are able to produce toxins with potentially negative impacts on the environment| health and thus on economics and society. It is therefore important for water management authorities to assess the manner in which cyanobacteria may evolve under climate change| especially in the Alpine Region where warming is projected by climate models to be More important than the global average. In this study| air temperature extremes under current climate were used as a proxy for future "average" climate forced by enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. The impacts of extreme temperature events on cyanobacteria were analyzed in five deep pen-Alpine lakes| covering the entire trophic gradient and using a synoptic approach. Extreme air temperatures were observed to alter the biomass of the cyanobacteria community. In general| extreme hot events are associated with high biomass while extreme cold events are characterised by low biomass. However| the assessed air temperature extremes did not lead to a dominance of cyanobacteria over the other phytoplankton groups| which also showed responses in relative biomass change during extreme events. Both extreme hot and extreme cold events were seen to generate a loss of diversity among cyanobacteria. In addition| the use of extreme events as a proxy to "average" future climates is a useful approach to enhance possible impacts of Attire global warming on the biota in freshwater systems. The outcomes of a synoptic approach provide general responses and are a useful tool for further modelling purposes. 3469,2011,2,4,Impacts of future climate change and effects of biogenic emissions on surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the United States,Simulations of present and future average regional ozone and PM(2.5) concentrations over the United States were performed to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional air quality using CMAQ. Various emissions and climate conditions with different biogenic emissions and domain resolutions were implemented to study the sensitivity of future air quality trends from the impacts of changing biogenic emissions. A comparison of GEOS-Chem and CMAQ was performed to investigate the effect of downscaling on the prediction of future air quality trends. For ozone| the impacts of global climate change are relatively smaller when compared to the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction| except for the Northeast area| where increasing biogenic emissions due to climate change have stronger positive effects (increases) to the regional ozone air quality. The combination effect from both climate change and emission reductions leads to approximately a 10% or 5 ppbv decrease of the maximum daily average eight-hour ozone (MDA8) over the Eastern United States. For PM(2.5)| the impacts of global climate change have shown insignificant effect| where as the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction account for the majority of overall PM(2.5) reductions. The annual average 24-h PM(2.5) of the future-year condition was found to be about 40% lower than the one from the present-year condition| of which 60% of its overall reductions are contributed to by the decrease of SO(4) and NO(3) particulate matters. Changing the biogenic emissions model increases the MDA8 ozone by about 5-10% or 3-5 ppbv in the Northeast area. Conversely| it reduces the annual average PM(2.5) by 5% or 1.0 mu g m(-3) in the Southeast region. 11669,2011,2,4,Impacts of global warming perturbation on water resources in arid zone: Case study of Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China,The main goal of this study was to assess the long-term impacts of global warming perturbation on water resources of the Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China. Temperature| precipitation and hydrology data during the past 29 years from 1979 to 2007 were collected and analyzed using parametric and non-parametric methods| the connection between temperature and precipitation by the combination of grey correlation analysis method and the hypothesis testing for trend of climate change. The results show a high increase in temperature in the study area as well as an extreme and highly variable hydrological regime in this region| where flash floods can exceed the total runoff from a sequence of years. These variations may be due to the geographical location of the Kaidu River Basin in arid zone. It also reveals that precipitation has a much greater impact on stream flow than that of temperature. The development of new approaches was proposed as responses to climate change in this arid region. 11756,2011,2,4,Impacts of temperature and precipitation on runoff in the Tarim River during the past 50 years,The relationship between climate change and water resources in the Tarim River was analyzed by combining the temperature| precipitation and streamflow data from 1957 to 2007 from the four headstreams of the Tarim River (Aksu| Hotan| Yarkant and Kaidu rivers) in the study area. The long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature| precipitation and streamflow were studied using correlation analysis and partial correlations analysis. Holt double exponential smoothing was used to fit the trends between streamflow and the two climatic factors of Aksu River| Hotan River and Yarkant River. The streamflow of the main stream was forecasted by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) modeling by the method of time series analysis. The results show that the temperature experienced a trend of monotonic rising. The precipitation and runoff of the four headstreams of the Tarim River increased| while the inflow to the headstreams increased and the inflow into the Tarim River decreased. Changes of temperature and precipitation had a significant impact on runoff into the four headstreams of the Tarim River: the precipitation had a positive impact on water flow in the Aksu River| Hotan River and Kaidu River| while the temperature had a positive impact on water flow in the Yarkant River. The results of Holt double exponential smoothing showed that the correlation between the independent variable and dependent variable was relatively close after the model was fitted to the headstreams| of which only the runoff and temperature values of Hotan River showed a significant negative correlation. The forecasts by the ARIMA model for 50 years of annual runoff at the Allar station followed the pattern of the measured data for the same years. The short-term forecasts beyond the observed series adequately captured the pattern in the data and showed a decreasing tendency in the Tarim River flow of 3.07% every ten years. The results showed that global warming accelerated the water recharge process of the headstreams. The special hydrological characteristics of the arid area determined the significant association between streamflow and the two climatic factors studied. Strong glacier retreat is likely to bring a series of flood disasters within the study area. 12491,2011,2,4,Impacts of urbanization on the groundwater resources in Shahrood| Northeastern Iran: Comparison with other Iranian and Asian cities,Urbanization may lead to the contamination of groundwater and/or it may alter the hydrogeological regime. Shahrood is a medium size city in northeastern Iran| underlain by an alluvial aquifer. Analysis of 45 samples collected from the Shahrood Plain's aquifer in 2003 and 2005 revealed that: (1) Shahrood's wastewater disposal wells and deep cesspits have led to the nitrate pollution of groundwater (up to 140 mg/L NO(3)-NO(3)): (2) urban recharge has lowered the groundwater temperature and pH and (3) urbanization has possibly resulted in the incomplete interaction between various flow compartments of the aquifer. In four other Iranian cities| Gorgan| Kerman| Zahedan and Mashad| urbanization has led to water quality deterioration| alarming rise of groundwater levels endangering foundations of the buildings as well as collapse of 'qanat's galleries. The maximum concentration of nitrate (MCN) in groundwater in all these cities has been compared with the ratio of population/rainfall in each city. A similar exercise has been carried out for Asian megacities. These show that MCN in an urban aquifer is directly controlled by population and average annual rainfall. This has serious implications for the management of urban groundwater resources and suggests that the current world population growth rate and the likely reduction in the atmospheric precipitation induced by global warming will further deteriorate the quality of such resources. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12022,2011,2,4,Implications of a warming North Sea for the growth of haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus,The present study aimed firstly| to test for a temperature effect on North Sea haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus growth and secondly| to develop a model that could be used to assess total length (L(T)) and mass (M)-at-age response to different temperature scenarios. The von Bertalanffy growth model was fitted on a cohort-by-cohort basis from 1970 to 2006. The asymptotic L(T) (L(infinity)) was negatively correlated with temperature while the rate at which L(infinity) is reached (K) was positively correlated with temperature. K was negatively correlated with density| whereas no effect on L(infinity) was observed. These effects were incorporated into a von Bertalanffy model which was extended to include temperature and density as explanatory variables. Only the temperature variable was significant. Fitting the extended von Bertalanffy model revealed that L(infinity) decreased while K increased with increasing temperature| resulting in up to a 40% loss of individual yield at older ages. The dramatic decline observed in the mean age at which 50% of the population becomes mature suggests that higher temperatures resulted in larger young M. aeglefinus that matured earlier and therefore reached a smaller maximum size. In a global warming context| the loss of individual yield observed at old ages is likely to reduce the fisheries yield for M. aeglefinus in the North Sea. Journal of Fish Biology (C) 2011 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles No claim to original US government works 12257,2011,2,4,Implications of climate change in sustained agricultural productivity in South Asia,One of the targets of the United Nations 'Millennium Development Goals' adopted in 2000 is to cut in half the number of people who are suffering from hunger between 1990 and 2015. However| crop yield growth has slowed down in much of the world because of declining investments in agricultural research| irrigation| and rural infrastructure and increasing water scarcity. New challenges to food security are posed by accelerated climatic change. Considerable uncertainties remain as to when| where and how climate change will affect agricultural production. Even less is known about how climate change might influence other aspects that determine food security| such as accessibility of food for various societal groups and the stability of food supply. This paper presents the likely impacts of thermal and hydrological stresses as a consequence of projected climate change in the future potential agriculture productivity in South Asia based on the crop simulation studies with a view to identify critical climate thresholds for sustained food productivity in the region. The study suggests that| on an aggregate level| there might not be a significant impact of global warming on food production of South Asia in the short term (<2 degrees C; until 2020s)| provided water for irrigation is available and agricultural pests could be kept under control. The increasing frequency of droughts and floods would| however| continue to seriously disrupt food supplies on year to year basis. In long term (2050s and beyond)| productivity of Kharif crops would decline due to increased climate variability and pest incidence and virulence. Production of Rabi crops is likely to be more seriously threatened in response to 2 degrees C warming. The net cereal production in South Asia is projected to decline at least between 4 and 10% under the most conservative climate change projections (a regional warming of 3 degrees C) by the end of this century. In terms of the reference to UNFCCC Article 2 on dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system| the critical threshold for sustained food productivity in South Asia appears to be a rise in surface air temperature of similar to 2 degrees C and a marginal decline in water availability for irrigation or decrease in rainfall during the cropping season. 12231,2011,3,4,Implications of land use change on the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from palm biodiesel production in Thailand,The study evaluates the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of biodiesel production through three chosen land use change scenarios in Thailand: rubber plantation to oil palm plantation in Krabi| cassava plantation to oil palm plantation in Chonburi| and abandoned land to oil palm plantation in Pathumthani. The carbon stock changes were estimated based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and combined with the life cycle GHG emissions from palm oil and biodiesel production in Thailand. For 1 million liters of biodiesel production per day| the Krabi| Chonburi and Pathumthani cases resulted in -709 Mg CO(2)-eq/day| -748 Mg CO(2)-eq/day and -600 Mg CO(2)-eq/day| respectively. The Pathumthani case showed the lowest negative GHG balance even with least fertilization partly because of larger transportation distances while the Chonburi case was the highest despite low yield as it would require more land to grow oil palm for the same amount of biodiesel| resulting in more soil carbon being sequestered. However| the land use change scenarios chosen for this study all show a negative GHG balance which means that biodiesel helps reduce GHG in the atmosphere. (C) 2011 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 12749,2011,4,4,Importance of pan evaporation for irrigation scheduling and proper use of crop-pan coefficient (Kcp)| crop coefficient (Kc) and pan coefficient (Kp),The objectives of this study were: (1) to submit comprehensive information about the distinctions among pan coefficient (Kp)| crop coefficient (Kc)| and crop-pan coefficient (Kcp); (2) to reveal the importance of using pan evaporation for irrigation scheduling. The amount of water allocated for agricultural production has been decreasing due to rapid population growth| industrialization and contamination. Therefore| to obtain maximum yield and avoid excessive water application| the water requirements of the cultivated plants should be accurately determined| and irrigation water should be applied according to the needs of the plants. Crop water consumption (ETc) varies from region to region depending on crop type| stage of growth| soil| and climate conditions. Different evapotranspiration rates may be observed even in different parts of the same region. Considering global warming and climate change in recent years| it is clear that the predicted ET values of a year can not be used safely for upcoming years. Research studies have revealed a linear correlation between crop water consumption and the amount of water evaporated from open water surface. Therefore| irrigation scheduling through using the combination of proper crop-pan coefficient and pan evaporation (Class-A pan) is very important due to both ease of adjustment to the climate changes and ease of application. Even though many studies have been conducted on this issue| there is still need to collective and detailed information about use of evaporation pan for irrigation scheduling and above mentioned coefficients. 11960,2011,3,3,Improved Thermal Stability and Mechanical Properties of Poly(propylene carbonate) by Reactive Blending with Maleic Anhydride,To extend the application of a carbon dioxide sourced environmental friendly polymer: poly (propylene carbonate) (PPC)| a small amount of maleic anhydride (MA) was melt blended to end-cap with PPC to improve its thermal stability and mechanical properties. Thermal and mechanical properties of end-capped PPC were investigated by TGA| GPC| mechanical test| and DMA. TGA and titration results demonstrate that PPC can be easily end-capped with MA through simple melt blending. TGA results show that the thermal degradation temperature of PPC could be improved by around 140 degrees C by adding MA. GPC measurement indicates that the molecular weight of PPC can be maintained after blending with MA| where pure PPC experiences a dramatic degradation in molecular weight during melt process. More importantly| the tensile strength of PPC after blending with MA was found to be nearly eight times higher than that of pure PPC. It has approached the mechanical properties of polyolefin polymers| indicating the possibility of replacing polyolefin polymers with PPC for low temperature applications. The method described here could be used to extend the applications of PPC and fight against the well known global warming problem. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals| Inc. J Appl Polym Sci 120: 3565-3573| 2011 12747,2011,3,4,In Situ Methane Recovery and Carbon Dioxide Sequestration in Methane Hydrates: A Molecular Dynamics Simulation Study,One intriguing idea for the simultaneous recovery of energy and sequestration of global warming gas is proposed by the transformation of methane hydrates to carbon dioxide hydrates with the injection of liquid CO(2). Here we use molecular dynamics simulations to show that the replacement can take place without melting of the network of hydrogen-bonded water molecules. Depending on the distance to the interface between the liquid CO(2) and solid clathrate hydrate| we find that the replacement occurs either via direct swapping of methane and CO(2) or via a transient co-occupation of both methane and CO(2) in one cavity. Our results suggest that| with a careful design of the operation condition| it is possible to replace methane from methane hydrates with CO(2) in the solid phase without much change in the geological stability. 3358,2011,2,4,In vitro ecology of Seiridium cardinale and allied species: the effect of solute stress and water potential on fungal growth,Defining the potential implications of global climate change on Mediterranean forest ecosystems requires a basic knowledge on the ecology of fungal pathogens under conditions that would stress host plants. The Mediterranean cypress (Cupressus sempervirens)-Seiridium spp. pathosystem represents an important case study. In the last century| epidemics of cypress canker have killed historical plantations and the decades-long host resistance will probably break down in the future as a result of both host and pathogen adaptation to increasing temperature and decreasing summer precipitation. In this study| the effect of osmotic water stress on mycelial growth of Seiridium cardinale| S. unicorne and S. cupressi in culture was examined and compared to that of Diplodia cupressi| which is a pathogen of cypress known to be favoured by host water stress. Growth responses were evaluated on potato sucrose agar amended with KCl or NaC1 to give water potentials in the range of -0.34 to -15 MPa. Mycelial growth decreased with decreasing water potential and ceased at -15 MPa| although the mycelium remained alive. Histochemical analysis conducted on S. cardinale grown at -12 MPa revealed melanization and thickening of hyphal walls| in addition to abundance of lipid-rich organelles. These results suggest that the three Seiridium spp. might survive drying cycles in cypress wood| but their tolerance is different. Successful survival strategies may partly result from changes in mycelium structure. Furthermore| S. unicorne was positively stimulated by a water potential of -3 MPa| suggesting that it may have high adaptive potential for life in a drier Mediterranean ecosystem| which is predicted to occur under-scenarios of global warming. 11622,2011,3,4,Including greenhouse gas emissions during benchmarking of wastewater treatment plant control strategies,The main| objective of this paper is to demonstrate how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be quantified during the evaluation of control strategies in wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). A modified version of the IWA Benchmark Simulation Model No 2 (BSM2G) is hereby used as a simulation case study. Thus| the traditional effluent quality index (EQI)| operational cost index (OCI) and time in violation (TIV) used to evaluate control strategies in WWTP are complemented with a new dimension dealing with GHG emissions. The proposed approach is based on a set of comprehensive models that estimate all potential on-site and off-site sources of GHG emissions. The case study investigates the overall performance of several control strategies and demonstrates that substantial reductions in effluent pollution| operating costs and GHG emissions can be achieved when automatic control is implemented. Furthermore| the study is complemented with a scenario analysis that examines the role of i) the dissolved oxygen (DO) set-point| ii) the sludge retention time (SRT) and iii) the organic carbon/nitrogen ratio (COD/N) as promoters of GHG emissions. The results of this study show the potential mechanisms that promote the formation of CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O when different operational strategies are implemented| the existing synergies and trade-offs amongst the EQI| the OCI and TIV criteria and finally the need to reach a compromise solution to achieve an optimal plant performance. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 11858,2011,2,4,Increase in Rubisco activity and gene expression due to elevated temperature partially counteracts ultraviolet radiation-induced photoinhibition in the marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii,We performed outdoor experiments to evaluate the effect of temperature on photoinhibition properties in the cosmopolitan diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii. Cultures were exposed to solar radiation with or without ultraviolet radiation (UVR| 280-400 nm)| UV-A (320-400 nm)| and UV-B (280-320 nm) at both 20 degrees C and 25 degrees C. Four possible cellular mechanisms involved in UVR stress were simultaneously addressed: carbon incorporation| chlorophyll a fluorescence of photosystem II| xanthophyll cycle activity| and ribulose-1|5-biphosphate carboxylase : oxygenase (Rubisco) activity and gene expression. Experiments consisted of daily cycles (i.e.| the daylight period) and short-term incubations (i.e.| 1 h centered on local noon). Samples incubated at 25 degrees C had significantly less UVR-induced inhibition of carbon fixation and effective photochemical quantum yield compared to those incubated at 20 degrees C. At 25 degrees C Rubisco activity and gene expression were significantly higher than at 20 degrees C. The higher Rubisco activity and gene expression were correlated with less dissipation of excess energy| evaluated via non-photochemical quenching| and the de-epoxidation state of the xanthophyll pigments| as more photons could be processed. An increase in temperature due to climate change would partially counteract the negative effects of UVR by increasing the response of metabolic pathways| such as those involved in Rubisco. This| in turn| may have important consequences for the ecosystem| as higher production (due to more Rubisco activity) could be expected under a scenario of global warming. 11594,2011,2,4,Increase of extreme events in a warming world,We develop a theoretical approach to quantify the effect of long-term trends on the expected number of extremes in generic time series| using analytical solutions and Monte Carlo simulations. We apply our method to study the effect of warming trends on heat records. We find that the number of record-breaking events increases approximately in proportion to the ratio of warming trend to short-term standard deviation. Short-term variability thus decreases the number of heat extremes| whereas a climatic warming increases it. For extremes exceeding a predefined threshold| the dependence on the warming trend is highly nonlinear. We further find that the sum of warm plus cold extremes increases with any climate change| whether warming or cooling. We estimate that climatic warming has increased the number of new global-mean temperature records expected in the last decade from 0.1 to 2.8. For July temperature in Moscow| we estimate that the local warming trend has increased the number of records expected in the past decade fivefold| which implies an approximate 80% probability that the 2010 July heat record would not have occurred without climate warming. 12398,2011,2,3,Increase of South Pacific eastern subtropical mode water under global warming,The response of South Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (SPESTMW) to global warming is investigated by comparing solutions from a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled models between a present-day climate and a future| warmer climate. Under the warmer climate scenario| the SPESTMW extends southwestward and is significantly increased in volume. This is because all the local surface forcing mechanisms (i.e.| wind stress| heat and freshwater fluxes) in the eastern subtropical South Pacific tends to de-stratify the upper ocean and thus deepen the mixed layer. Further| a suite of process-oriented experiments with an ocean general circulation model suggest that it is the intensified southeast trade winds under the warmer climate that promotes more heat flux from the ocean into the atmosphere that then results in a deepening of the mixed layer in the eastern subtropics of the South Pacific. Citation: Luo| Y.| Q. Liu| and L. M. Rothstein (2011)| Increase of South Pacific eastern subtropical mode water under global warming| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L01601| doi:10.1029/2010GL045878. 12653,2011,3,3,INCREASED SECURITY OPERATION OF NUCLEAR FACILITIES BY USING REFRIGERATION SYSTEMS WITH ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY FREON,One of the basic conditions for the operation of nuclear installations is security operation. The complexity of the phenomena in heavy water detritiation plants| determine the use of advanced equipment for technological processes involved. Pilot Plant for Tritium and Deuterium Separation developed the cryogenic technology of tritium separation from tritiated heavy water. The process is based on an catalyzed isotopic exchange module| where the tritium is extracted from tritiated heavy water. An important process in this way is to extract moisture from the wet hydrogen gas coming from the exchange column. This process takes place on two phases: extracting moisture from the gas resulting from isotopic exchange column on the primary system consists of a fully automated chiller; cleaning systems on molecular sieve adsorbents. The refrigeration system (chiller system) used Freon as refrigerant. Refrigerants are working fluid in any refrigeration system. They absorb heat from one source and send it to another source| usually through evaporation and condensation processes due to phase change. Chlorofluorocarbons - CFCs and hydrochlorofluorocarbons HCFCs were developed as a series of non-toxic refrigerants| stable (at normal temperatures) that belong to a larger family of substances known as halogens. These refrigerants contained| amongst other elements| like chlorine. Refrigerants known as CFC12 (R12) and HCFC22 (R22) are stable| remaining in the atmosphere for many years| and eventually diffuse into the stratosphere. In the upper atmosphere the molecules of refrigerants with chlorine can destroys the ozone layer. In the lower atmosphere the molecules absorbs infrared radiation and contribute to global warming. Paper try to meet the safety of the operation requirements of nuclear facilities| technological performance of work required by the thermodynamic conditions but also environmental protection as an important factor in sustainable development of society. 3189,2011,2,3,Increased [CO(2)] does not compensate for negative effects on yield caused by higher temperature and [O(3)] in Brassica napus L.,The projected changes of atmospheric composition and associated climatic parameters will challenge the agricultural production in ways| which existing crop populations have not previously experienced. Therefore| understanding the responsiveness to changes of multiple environmental parameters in existing genotypes is vital. In this study| the responses in yield and biomass production of four different cultivars of oilseed rape (Brassica naps L.) were tested under five different combinations of increased [CO(2)] (700 ppm)| temperature (+5 degrees C) and [O(3)] (+40 ppb). Especially the multifactor treatments are relevant for predictions of the future production| as they mimic the multidimensional environmental changes that are expected within this century. All treatments were given the same amount of water| which mimicked future limited water availability e.g. in treatments with elevated temperature. The biomass and yield parameters were found to be significantly cultivar dependent. However| in all cultivars elevated temperature caused a significant reduction in yield parameters| while biomass was not affected significantly. Elevated [CO(2)] increased the vegetative biomass significantly| but seed yield was only significantly enhanced in one of the four cultivars studied. Increased [O(3)] did not have significant effects on any of the cultivars. In general| the negative effects of a 5 degrees C temperature elevation on yield could not be compensated by elevated [CO(2)]| when simultaneously applied in multifactor treatments. The evaluation of cultivar differences in productivity under elevated [CO(2)] in combination with increased temperatures and [O(3)] is necessary to derive at a realistic prediction for the future food and biomass production and for the selection of cultivars providing an adaptation potential to environmental change. Our results suggest that future breeding of B. napus should be based on old cultivars| since more modern varieties seem to have lower potentials to respond to CO(2) and thus counteract the detrimental effects of yield reducing environmental factors such as temperature and O(3). (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12110,2011,3,3,Increases in soil organic carbon sequestration can reduce the global warming potential of long-term liming to permanent grassland,The application of calcium- and magnesium-rich materials to soil| known as liming| has long been a foundation of many agro-ecosystems worldwide because of its role in counteracting soil acidity. Although liming contributes to increased rates of respiration from soil thereby potentially reducing soils ability to act as a CO(2) sink| the long-term effects of liming on soil organic carbon (C(org)) sequestration are largely unknown. Here| using data spanning 129 years of the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted (UK)| we show net C(org) sequestration measured in the 0-23 cm layer at different time intervals since 1876 was 2-20 times greater in limed than in unlimed soils. The main cause of this large C(org) accrual was greater biological activity in limed soils| which despite increasing soil respiration rates| led to plant C inputs being processed and incorporated into resistant soil organo-mineral pools. Limed organo-mineral soils showed: (1) greater C(org) content for similar plant productivity levels (i.e. hay yields); (2) higher 14C incorporation after 1950s atomic bomb testing and (3) lower C : N ratios than unlimed organo-mineral soils| which also indicate higher microbial processing of plant C. Our results show that greater C(org) sequestration in limed soils strongly reduced the global warming potential of long-term liming to permanent grassland suggesting the net contribution of agricultural liming to global warming could be lower than previously estimated. Our study demonstrates that liming might prove to be an effective mitigation strategy| especially because liming applications can be associated with a reduced use of nitrogen fertilizer which is a key cause for increased greenhouse gas emissions from agro-ecosystems. 11748,2011,2,4,Increasing ocean temperature reduces the metabolic performance and swimming ability of coral reef damselfishes,Tropical coral reef teleosts are exclusively ectotherms and their capacity for physical and physiological performance is therefore directly influenced by ambient temperature. This study examined the effect of increased water temperature to 3 degrees C above ambient on the swimming and metabolic performance of 10 species of damselfishes (Pomacentridae) representing evolutionary lineages from two subfamilies and four genera. Five distinct performance measures were tested: (a) maximum swimming speed (U(crit))| (b) gait-transition speed (the speed at which they change from strictly pectoral to pectoral-and-caudal swimming| U(p-c))| (c) maximum aerobic metabolic rate (MO(2-MAX))| (d) resting metabolic rate (MO(2-REST))| and (e) aerobic scope (ratio of MO(2-MAX) to MO(2-REST)| A(SC)). Relative to the control (29 degrees C)| increased temperature (32 degrees C) had a significant negative effect across all performance measures examined| with the magnitude of the effect varying greatly among closely related species and genera. Specifically| five species spanning three genera (Dascyllus| Neopomacentrus and Pomacentrus) showed severe reductions in swimming performance with Ucrit reduced in these species by 21.3-27.9% and U(p-c) by 32.6-51.3%. Furthermore| five species spanning all four genera showed significant reductions in metabolic performance with aerobic scope reduced by 24.3-64.9%. Comparisons of remaining performance capacities with field conditions indicate that 32 degrees C water temperatures will leave multiple species with less swimming capacity than required to overcome the water flows commonly found in their respective coral reef habitats. Consequently| unless adaptation is possible| significant loss of species may occur if ocean warming of >= 3 degrees C arises. 11690,2011,2,4,Increasing Oxygen Radicals and Water Temperature Select for Toxic Microcystis sp.,Pronounced rises in frequency of toxic cyanobacterial blooms are recently observed worldwide| particularly when temperatures increase. Different strains of cyanobacterial species vary in their potential to produce toxins but driving forces are still obscure. Our study examines effects of hydrogen peroxide on toxic and non-toxic (including a non-toxic mutant) strains of M. aeruginosa. Here we show that hydrogen peroxide diminishes chlorophyll a content and growth of cyanobacteria and that this reduction is significantly lower for toxic than for non-toxic strains. This indicates that microcystins protect from detrimental effects of oxygen radicals. Incubation of toxic and non-toxic strains of M. aeruginosa with other bacteria or without (axenic) at three temperatures (20| 26 and 32 degrees C) reveals a shift toward toxic strains at higher temperatures. In parallel to increases in abundance of toxic (i.e. toxin gene possessing) strains and their actual toxin expression| concentrations of microcystins rise with temperature| when amounts of radicals are expected to be enhanced. Field samples from three continents support the influence of radicals and temperature on toxic potential of M. aeruginosa. Our results imply that global warming will significantly increase toxic potential and toxicity of cyanobacterial blooms which has strong implications for socio-economical assessments of global change. 12248,2011,2,4,Increasing Regional Temperatures Associated with Delays in Atlantic Salmon Sea-Run Timing at the Southern Edge of the European Distribution,Populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar at the edge of the species' distribution are the most vulnerable to environmental changes. Those inhabiting southern European rivers are expected to be particularly affected by global warming. However| they are exploited as a very valuable resource for the region| attracting tourism and generating substantial income. In the central part of northern Spain (Asturias)| there is a long tradition of sport fisheries (angling). The first salmon caught in a river each year is called the "campanu." Analysis of a 50-year time series demonstrates that the run timing of the Asturian Atlantic salmon has changed over this period| as inferred from significant delays in the date of capture of the campanu. Average campanu weight has experienced a parallel significant decrease but age has not changed| indicating diminution of salmon condition. These changes are statistically associated with an increase in regional temperature| there being a minor effect of the global climate North Atlantic Oscillation index. Negative effects of high temperatures on salmon run and feeding| together with long migratory routes| may explain these results. 3510,2011,2,4,Indicators for strategic environmental assessment in regional land use planning to assess conflicts with adaptation to global climate change,The paper presents the use of indicators in a site-specific assessment method for strategic environmental assessment in regional land use planning (here: SEA-REP). It is explained with the example of the state of environment indicator 'LUCCA 4 Urban Areas at Risk of Flooding'| how SEA as a decision-aiding instrument can contribute to the prevention of conflicts with policy for adaptation to climate change. The method begins with the determination of impact factors for SEA. In the presented study| the physical impact factors of land consumption| land use change| and directed flooding were recognised. A core problem during the selection of indicators for land uses for the adaptation to climate change (here: LUCCA) and the derivation of assessment thresholds was a lack of region-wide policy objectives for the protection of land and resources. Therefore| in a second step| regional environmental orientation objectives were derived from national and EU environmental policy. A standard method for the selection of LUCCA indicators and the derivation of assessment thresholds for conflict analysis is described. Three classes of conflict classification for regional plan designations on the individual site are proposed. It is recommended that future adaptation measures of regional land use planning should be designations of specific land uses as priority areas for urban areas prone to flood risk. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 11790,2011,4,4,Indices of the factors that form climate changes of different scales,Radiative forcing| the global warming potential| and the recently proposed global temperature potential are widely used not only in scientific studies but also in a number of economic and political evaluations of the effects of an increase in the contents of greenhouse gases and aerosols and other factors that form climate and its changes. New indices have appeared| and| to calculate them| information is required on the quantitative characteristics of the climate system's components-current and expected-within standard periods of 20| 100| and 500 years. The calculations of some of these indices and potentials require consideration for variations in the rate of energy exchange between the atmosphere and the underlying surface (ocean) within the indicated periods. This leads to a more general problem of analyzing the sensitivity of the climate system to external (radiative) forcing and its response to such a forcing for the conditions of both stationary (equilibrium) and nonstationary "greenhouse" climates. A brief review of the few existing studies of such a response is given. 3286,2011,2,4,Individual and combined effects of heat stress and aqueous or dietary copper exposure in fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas),Despite its role as an essential micronutrient| copper (Cu) can be present in aquatic ecosystems at concentrations able to cause adverse health effects on aquatic organisms. Although Cu is acquired by fish by either water or diet| studies that have investigated Cu impacts in fish have mainly focused on the toxicity of waterborne Cu. Moreover| as the majority of experiments were carried out under simplified conditions| little is known about the effects of natural factors other than competitive ions on Cu toxicity in fish. As temperature is a primary factor that affects the physiological state of poikilotherm organisms| we investigated the individual and combined effects of temperature and waterborne or dietary Cu on fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas). Fish were exposed to environmentally realistic concentrations of waterborne or dietary Cu at 20 degrees C and 32 degrees C. Transcriptional and enzymatic responses of various indicators of metabolic capacities as well as indicators of heat| oxidative and metal stresses were measured in fish muscle. Under our experimental conditions| temperature was the most important factor affecting the general condition of fish. Although no significant Cu accumulation was observed in the muscle of Cu-exposed fish| at 20 degrees C| waterborne and dietary Cu triggered significant changes in the transcription level of genes encoding for proteins involved in energy metabolism| metal detoxification and protein protection. Moreover| the response was quantitatively more important for dietary Cu than for waterborne Cu. Combined exposure to heat and Cu triggered the most significant changes in gene transcription levels and enzyme activities. During combined exposure to heat and Cu| in addition to synergistic effects of the two factors| both waterborne and dietary Cu impaired the adaptive response developed by fish to curb heat stress. Reciprocally| temperature impaired the adaptive response developed by fish to combat Cu toxicity. These results suggest that wild fish populations subjected to elevated temperatures due to seasonal warming or global climate change may become more susceptible to Cu pollution| and vice versa. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11856,2011,4,4,Inferring the global mean sea level from a global tide gauge network,An attempt is made to infer the global mean sea level (GMSL) from a global tide gauge network and frame the problem in terms of the limitations of the network. The network| owing to its limited number of gauges and poor geographical distribution complicated further by unknown vertical land movements| is ill suited for measuring the GMSL. Yet it remains the only available source for deciphering the sea level rise over the last 100 a. The poor sampling characteristics of the tide gauge network have necessitated the usage of statistical inference. A linear optimal estimator based on the Gauss-Markov theorem seems well suited for the job. This still leaves a great deal of freedom in choosing the estimator. GMSL is poorly correlated with tide gauge measurements because the small uniform rise and fall of sea level are masked by the far larger regional signals. On the other hand| a regional mean sea level (RMSL) is much better correlated with the corresponding regional tide gauge measurements. Since the GMSL is simply the sum of RMSLs| the problem is transformed to one of estimating the RMSLs from regional tide gauge measurements. Specifically for the annual heating and cooling cycle| we separate the global ocean into 10A degrees-latitude bands and compute for each 10A degrees-latitude band the estimator that predicts its RMSL from tide gauges within. In the future| the statistical correlations are to be computed using satellite altimetry. However| as a first attempt| we have used numerical model outputs instead to isolate the problem so as not to get distracted by altimetry or tide gauge errors. That is| model outputs for sea level at tide gauge locations of the GLOSS network are taken as tide gauge measurements| and the RMSLs are computed from the model outputs. The results show an estimation error of approximately 2 mm versus an error of 2.7 cm if we simply average the tide gauge measurements to estimate the GMSL| caused by the much larger regional seasonal cycle and mesoscale variation plaguing the individual tide gauges. The numerical model| Los Alamos POP model Run 11 lasting 3 1/4 a| is one of the best eddy-resolving models and does a good job simulating the annual heating and cooling cycle| but it has no global or regional trend. Thus it has basically succeeded in estimating the seasonal cycle of the GMSL. This is still going to be the case even if we use the altimetry data because the RMSLs are dominated by the seasonal cycle in relatively short periods. For estimating the GMSL trend| longer records and low-pass filtering to isolate the statistical relations that are of interest. Here we have managed to avoid the much larger regional seasonal cycle plaguing individual tide gauges to get a fairly accurate estimate of the much smaller seasonal cycle in the GMSL so as to enhance the prospect of an accurate estimate of GMSL trend in short periods. One should reasonably expect to be able to do the same for longer periods during which tide gauges are plagued by much larger regional interannual (e. g.| ENSO events) and decadal sea level variations. In the future| with the availability of the satellite altimeter data| we could use the same approach adopted here to estimate the seasonal variations of GMSL and RMSL accurately and remove these seasonal variations accordingly so as to get a more accurate statistical inference between the tide gauge data and the RMSLs (therefore the GMSL) at periods longer than 1 a| i. e.| the long-term trend. 11817,2011,3,4,Influence of biochar on drought tolerance of Chenopodium quinoa Willd and on soil-plant relations,The application of pyrogenic carbon| biochar| to agricultural soils is currently discussed as a win-win strategy to sequester carbon in soil| thus improving soil fertility and mitigate global warming. Our aim was to investigate if biochar may improve plant eco-physiological responses under sufficient water supply as well as moderate drought stress. A fully randomized greenhouse study was conducted with the pseudo-cereal Chenopodium quinoa Willd| using three levels of biochar addition (0| 100 and 200 t ha(-1)) to a sandy soil and two water treatments (60% and 20% of the water holding capacity of the control)| investigating growth| water use efficiency| eco-physiological parameters and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. Biochar application increased growth| drought tolerance and leaf-N- and water-use efficiency of quinoa despite larger plant-leaf areas. The plants growing in biochar-amended soil accumulated exactly the same amount of nitrogen in their larger leaf biomass than the control plants| causing significantly decreased leaf N-| proline- and chlorophyll-concentrations. In this regard| plant responses to biochar closely resembled those to elevated CO(2). However| neither soil- nor plant-soil-respiration was higher in the larger plants| indicating less respiratory C losses per unit of biomass produced. Soil-N(2)O emissions were significantly reduced with biochar. The large application rate of 200 t ha(-1) biochar did not improve plant growth compared to 100 t ha(-1); hence an upper beneficial level exists. For quinoa grown in a sandy soil| biochar application might hence provide a win-win strategy for increased crop production| GHG emission mitigation and soil C sequestration. 11659,2011,2,4,Influence of Global Warming on Aggregate Stability and Hydraulic Conductivity Under Highland Soil Order in Turkey,Ongoing global warming may cause an increase in air and soil temperatures. These increases can then lead to increase in the frequency of soil freezing and thawing cycle during the winter in cool-temperate and other high-latitude regions. The purpose of this study was to explore the effects of repeated soil freezing and thawing treated cycles (FTTC) on wet aggregate stability (WAS) and hydraulic conductivity (HC) in incubation laboratory and field experiment on Pellustert| Argiustoll| Haplustept| and Fluvaquent soils| the major soil groups in the eastern part of Turkey. To provide long-term climatic effect of soil FTTC on WAS and HC| a laboratory study was conducted simulating with three steps based on 60-year temperature cycles occurring in the region. The results demonstrated that the initial WAS increased with increases in FTTC from 3 to 6| by 18% to 113% but decreased after that point in all the soil freeze-thaw treatments by 2% to 25%| depending on soil type. The effect was more pronounced with increased moisture contents at freezing. The percent decrease in HC of soils ranged from 19% to 44%. The highest WAS values of soil samples under laboratory condition were determined in the Argiustoll soil| followed by Pellustert > Haplustept > Fluvaquent but was Fluvaquent > Haplustept > Pellustert > Argiustoll for HC of the soils. The field study results showed that global climate changes occurring in recent decades in the region deeply affected the WAS and HC values and that the highland soils are most sensitive to the global climatic change. Increasing air temperature has resulted in the rise of soil temperature| increasing the frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles during the winter in cool-temperature and other high-latitude regions. If ongoing global warming continues this trend| WAS and HC changes in highland soils may lead to decrease and alterations in regional agricultural production such that regular organic manure or green manure amendments will be needed to sustain soil management and crop production for these major soil groups. 3339,2011,4,4,Influence of submerged macrophytes| temperature| and nutrient loading on the development of redox potential around the sediment-water interface in lakes,Redox potential is a significant factor in aquatic systems to regulate the availability of nutrients and some metals. To assess the driving variables regulating redox potential| background parameters (dissolved oxygen| pH| temperature| chlorophyll-a| soluble reactive and total phosphorus content of water| coverage and height of submerged macrophytes) and redox potential profiles around the sediment-water interface (SWI) were measured in simulated shallow lake ecosystems. There were two nutrient regimes (enriched and non-enriched) and three temperature scenarios (unheated; +3.5A degrees C; +5A degrees C) installed in the experimental setups| which were constructed to study the effects of global climate change. Temperature did not have any detectable effect on redox potentials| and we presume that nutrient addition had only indirect positive effects through triggering phytoplankton dominance which causes macrophyte absence. When submerged macrophytes were present in high density (80-100% coverage)| redox potentials at the SWI varied between 60-215 mV and the mean redox potential was 133 +/- A 34 mV (mean +/- A 1 SD). In contrast to this| when phytoplankton dominance was coupled to low macrophyte density (0-20% coverage)| the range of redox potentials at the SWI was 160-290 mV and the mean redox potential was 218 +/- A 34 mV. The results revealed the primary importance of submersed macrophytes; macrophyte coverage determined alone the redox potential of the sediment-water interface by 81%. This study suggests that possible positive effects of macrophytes on redox potential can be suppressed by their negative effects in case of 80-100% coverage and total inhabitation of the water column. 12843,2011,2,4,Influence of temperature on growth| toxicity and carbohydrate production of a Japanese Ostreopsis ovata strain| a toxic-bloom-forming dinoflagellate,Ostreopsis ovata is a benthic dinoflagellate that produces palytoxin and its analogues. Since the end of the 1990s| toxic blooms of O. ovata have been recorded in many tropical and temperate marine waters. These blooms often kill benthic invertebrates and cause health problems for humans. We hypothesize that increases in seawater temperature might induce these blooms. A strain of O. ovata isolated from the southern coast of Japan was selected for study. O. ovata cells were exposed to 7 different temperatures from 24 to 30 degrees C for 30 d| and growth rates were noted. The specific growth rate was found to be highest at 25 degrees C| next highest at 24 degrees C and lower at 26| 28| 27| 30 and 29 degrees C| in that order. The hypothesis that increased seawater temperature causes increases in growth rate was thus not supported. The cell toxicity and car bohydrate production of O. ovata were highest at the temperature range that is optimal for cell growth. Increasesing sea surface temperature| as a result of global warming| is therefore not likely to have a substantial effect on the bloom formation and toxicity of this Japanese strain of O. ovata. 3505,2011,2,4,Influences of 20th-century warming at the upper tree line contingent on local-scale interactions: evidence from a latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains| USA,Aims Twentieth-century climate| the spatial pattern of tree establishment and positive feedback influence upper tree line ecotones. Here| I investigate how these factors interact to gain a more holistic understanding of how broad-scale abiotic and local-scale site conditions regulate tree establishment within upper tree line ecotones. Location A latitudinal gradient (c. 35-45 degrees N) in the US Rocky Mountains. Study sites (n = 22) were located in the Bighorn (BH)| Medicine Bow (MB)| Front Range (FR) and Sangre de Cristo (SDC) mountain ranges. Methods Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct tree establishment dates that were compared with 20th-century climate data using correlation and regime shift analyses. Spatial patterns of tree establishment were analysed by Ripley's K and used to determine local-scale interactions capable of ameliorating broad-scale climate inputs through positive feedback. Results Significant correlations (P < 0.01) between tree establishment and climate were confined to the FR| where a positive correlation was found with summer (June-August) and cool season (November-April) temperature range (T(max) - T(min)). These trees were almost exclusively situated in a random spatial pattern. Similar patterns exist in the BH| yet their establishment was contingent on the availability of local shelter in the lee of boulders. Trees in the MB and SDC were primarily clustered in space and had no significant correlations with climate. Considerable lag times exist between regime shift changes in climate towards more favourable growing conditions and corresponding shifts in tree establishment in all mountain ranges except the FR| where synchronous shifts occurred in the early 1950s. Main conclusions These results suggest that the influence of broad-scale climate on upper tree line dynamics is contingent on the local-scale spatial patterns of tree establishment and related influences of positive feedback. This research has important implications for understanding how vegetation communities will respond to global climate change. 12812,2011,3,4,Information services for European pork chains - Closing gaps in information infrastructures,Several global developments (e.g. diminishing production resources| growing demand for bio-energy) and numerous sector-wide crises (e.g. BSE| swine fever| dioxin) have led to a changing attitude of society towards the consequences of the food systems activities for social| economic and environmental issues| captured in the term of sustainability. Consumers in their role as final customers| and as a consequence also enterprises within agri-food supply chains| show increasing interest in the characteristics of food| and in turn| on the availability of related information and guarantees. Enterprises in agri-food supply chains are facing new expectations and are seeking to communicate social| economic and environmental performance of their business to customers within their supply chain and to consumers. New solutions for determination and communication of sustainability are needed for the agri-food sector| covering single aspects of sustainability as well as sustainability in a broader sense| including social| economic and environmental issues. Integrated| computer-based information services| since they are mainly building on existing systems| provide flexible solutions for enterprises to measure and evaluate sustainability of products throughout agri-food supply chains. Gained information on product characteristics might be used for decision support within enterprises as well as for communication of sustainable practices to customers and consumers| resulting in increased competitiveness of enterprises| supply chains and the sector by satisfying customers' and consumers' demands for information on the sustainability of a product. The present paper introduces a framework for developing information services for European pork chains using the three selected information domains food safety (representing social sustainability)| quality (representing economic sustainability) and global warming potential (representing environmental sustainability). Resulting information models give an aggregated overview on information availability and exchange in European pork chains| additional information demands of possible service users and deficiencies in the existing information infrastructures. The paper supports different stakeholders involved in agri-food production| such as service developers| enterprise decision makers and management consultants| in developing enterprise- and chain-specific solutions which meet customers' and consumers' demands by providing appropriate sustainability information and guarantees. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3302,2011,4,4,Infrared Thermography Applied to the Evaluation of Metabolic Heat Loss of Chicks Fed with Different Energy Densities,Brazil must comply with international quality standards and animal welfare requirements in order to maintain its position as world's largest exporter of poultry meat. With the scenario of global climate change there is the forecast of occurrence of extreme events with characteristics of both excess cold and heat for several regions of the country. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of using images of infrared thermography to evaluate the loss of sensible heat in young broilers fed different dietary energy levels. Twenty birds were reared in a house with appropriate brooding using infrared lamps. Birds were distributed in a completely randomized experimental into two treatments: T1 (control diet with 2950 kcal ME/kg(-1))| and T2 (high-energy diet with 3950 kcal ME/kg(-1)). Infrared thermographic images of the birds were recorded for four consecutive days. One bird was randomly chosen per treatment| and had special images taken and analyzed. Average surface temperature of the body area was calculated using the surface temperature recorded at 100 spots (50 at the front and 50 at the lateral side of the bird's body). Mean surface temperature of the flock was calculated recording 100 spots on the group of birds. Total radiant heat loss was calculated based on the average data of surface temperature. The results indicated that the young broilers fed the high-energy diet presented a metabolic energy loss equivalent to 0.64 kcal h(-1)| while the birds fed with the control diet lost 2.18 kcal h(-1). This finding confirms that oil supplementation to the diet reduces bird heat loss. The infrared camera was able to record young broilers' surface temperature variation when birds were fed diets with different energy contents.
12440,2011,2,3,Initial results of the SeaRISE numerical experiments with the models SICOPOLIS and IcIES for the Greenland ice sheet,SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) is a US-led multi-model community effort to predict the likely range of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea-level rise over the next few hundred years under global warming conditions. The Japanese ice-sheet modelling community is contributing to SeaRISE with two large-scale| dynamic/thermodynamic models: SICOPOLIS and IcIES. Here we discuss results for the Greenland ice sheet| obtained using both models under the forcings (surface temperature and precipitation scenarios) defined by the SeaRISE effort. A crucial point for meaningful simulations into the future is to obtain initial conditions that are close to the observed state of the present-day ice sheet. This is achieved by proper tuning during model spin-up from the last glacial/interglacial cycle to today. Experiments over 500 years indicate that both models are more sensitive (exhibit a larger rate of ice-sheet mass loss) to future climate warming (based on the A1B emission scenario) than to a doubling in the basal sliding speed. Ice-sheet mass loss varies between the two models by a factor of similar to 2 for sliding experiments and a factor of similar to 3 for climate-warming experiments| highlighting the importance of improved constraints on the parameterization of basal sliding and surface mass balance in ice-sheet models. 11551,2011,4,1,Insights on Global Warming,The global temperature increase over the last century and a half (similar to 0.8 degrees C)| and the last three decades in particular| is well outside of that which can be attributed to natural climate fluctuations. The increase of atmospheric CO(2) over this period has been conclusively demonstrated to be a result largely of fossil fuel burning. The global mean temperature change that results in response to a sustained perturbation of the Earth's energy balance after a time sufficiently long for both the atmosphere and oceans to come to thermal equilibrium is termed the Earth's climate sensitivity. The purely radiative (blackbody) warming from a doubling of CO(2) from its preindustrial level of 280 parts-per-million (ppm) to 560 ppm is similar to 1.2 degrees C; the actual warming that would result is considerably larger owing to amplification by climate feedbacks| including that owing to water vapor. Increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) levels are estimated to have contributed about +3.0 W m(-2) perturbation (radiative forcing) to the Earth's energy balance. Particles (aerosols)| on the whole| exert a cooling effect on climate| with a total forcing estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007)(1) as -1.2 W m(-2)| a value that is subject to considerable uncertainty. If the actual magnitude of aerosol forcing is close to the low end of its estimated uncertainty range| then it offsets a considerably smaller fraction of the GHG forcing and the total net forcing is at the high end of its range| similar to 2.4 W m(-2); at the other extreme| if the actual aerosol cooling is at the high end of its range| then aerosol forcing is currently offsetting a major fraction of GHG forcing| and the total net forcing is only similar to 0.6 W m(-2). To explain the actual global increase in temperature of similar to 0.8 degrees C| these two extremes have major implications in terms of the Earth's climate sensitivity. Climate sensitivity is determined by the strength of feedbacks| of which cloud feedback is the most uncertain. That the Earth has warmed and that GHGs are responsible is unequivocal; the Earth's climate sensitivity and the effect of aerosols complicate answers to the question: how much warming and how soon? (C) 2011 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J| 57: 3259-3284| 2011
3365,2011,2,4,Instability in a marginal coral reef: the shift from natural variability to a human-dominated seascape,As global climate change drives the demise of tropical reef ecosystems| attention is turning to the suitability o refuge habitat. For the Great Barrier Reef| are there historically stable southern refugia where corals from th north might migrate as climate changes? To address this question| we present a precise chronology of margina coral reef development from Moreton Bay| southeast Queensland| Australia. Our chronology shows that ree growth was episodic| responding to natural environmental variation throughout the Holocene| and tha Moreton Bay was inhospitable to corals for about half of the past 7000 years. The only significant change ii coral species composition occurred between similar to 200 and similar to 50 years ago| following anthropogenic alterations of th| bay and its catchments. Natural historical instability of reefs| coupled with environmental degradation sinc| European colonization| suggests that Moreton Bay offers limited potential as refuge habitat for reef species or human time scales. 12194,2011,3,4,Integrating energy efficiency performance in production management - gap analysis between industrial needs and scientific literature,For governments and for manufacturing companies| global warming| rising energy prices| and customers' increasing ecological awareness have pushed energy efficient manufacturing to the top of the agenda. Governments and companies are both striving to identify the most effective measures to increase energy efficiency in manufacturing processes. Based on results of a recent EU-funded road-mapping project| this paper highlights the needs of industrial companies for integrating energy efficiency performance in production management. First| it analyses concepts and tools for measurement| control and improvement of energy efficiency in production management proposed in literature. Second| the paper outlines that ICT tools and standardization are important enablers for energy efficient manufacturing. Third| industrial needs in these areas are presented based on expert interviews. The industrial needs thus identified are contrasted with concepts proposed in literature to point out the implementation gaps between practice and theory. The paper demonstrates that there exists a gap between the solutions available and the actual implementation in industrial companies. It concludes by deriving requirements for energy management in production that future collaborative research projects should address. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12575,2011,4,4,Inter-linking issues and dimensions in sustainability reporting,During the last decade| Sustainability Reporting (SR) has been increasingly adopted by corporations worldwide. This is evidenced by the adoption of several guidelines| such as the ISO 14000 series| the Social Accountability 8000 standard| and the GRI Sustainability Guidelines. SR shows promise to help corporate leaders and their employees to contribute towards achieving sustainable societies. However| most of the guidelines and standards address sustainability issues through comparmentalisation| thereby| leading to the separation of the economic| environmental| and social dimensions. Due to these divisive approaches| holistic assessments of the effects of their efforts are seldom properly integrated into coporate decisions and procedures to make improvements for example through Cleaner Production| Worker Health and Safety| Consumer Safety| and reductions in the negative short and long-term Social and Environmental Impacts. This paper analyses SR reports from three companies with the help of Grounded Theory's constant comparative analysis. This analytical framework helped the authors to systematically assess the degree to which the companies addressed economic| ecological and social issues separately or in an integrated and inter-linked manner. From the inter-linkages found| a new category is proposed to be added to future SR. This new category can help corporate SR planners and researchers on sustainability reports to better understand how the company leaders understand their responsibilities with regard to SD. These inter-connectednesses are highly relevant in many short and long-term dimensions of supply chain management| global warming| ecological disruption and societal equity issues| especially with regard to the local| national and global energy issues of fuels and oils| the central themes of the conference at which this paper was originally presented. It also plays a key role in real| long-term changes towards Sustainability| where the time dimension plays a key role in human survival on Planet Earth. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12373,2011,2,4,Interactions between Predation and Resources Shape Zooplankton Population Dynamics,Identifying the relative importance of predation and resources in population dynamics has a long tradition in ecology| while interactions between them have been studied less intensively. In order to disentangle the effects of predation by juvenile fish| algal resource availability and their interactive effects on zooplankton population dynamics| we conducted an enclosure experiment where zooplankton were exposed to a gradient of predation of roach (Rutilus rutilus) at different algal concentrations. We show that zooplankton populations collapse under high predation pressure irrespective of resource availability| confirming that juvenile fish are able to severely reduce zooplankton prey when occurring in high densities. At lower predation pressure| however| the effect of predation depended on algal resource availability since high algal resource supply buffered against predation. Hence| we suggest that interactions between mass-hatching of fish| and the strong fluctuations in algal resources in spring have the potential to regulate zooplankton population dynamics. In a broader perspective| increasing spring temperatures due to global warming will most likely affect the timing of these processes and have consequences for the spring and summer zooplankton dynamics. 11859,2011,2,3,Interactive effects of light and temperature on iron limitation in a marine diatom: Implications for marine productivity and carbon cycling,We examined effects of light intensity| photoperiod| and temperature on iron uptake rates| cellular iron : carbon (Fe : C) ratios| chlorophyll a| and specific growth rate in the coastal diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana. Decreasing any of these variables decreased growth and increased the cellular Fe : C ratio needed to support a given growth rate. However| because iron-limited growth rates (mu) and iron-sufficient growth rates (mu(max)) decreased by similar relative amounts| relationships between the relative degree of iron limitation (mu/mu(max)) and the mean daily concentration of biologically available dissolved inorganic iron species (mean [Fe']) varied little| as we had observed previously in three other algal species with varying light intensity. Thus| one might expect changes in light and temperature to have only a minimal effect on iron limitation in the ocean. However| because increasing light can increase [Fe'] via photolysis of ferric chelates and resulting iron redox cycling| light increases can decrease iron limitation of algal growth rate| an effect we observed here for diatom growth in media containing Fe chelates with ethylenediaminetetraacetate (EDTA). This photochemical effect is enhanced at low temperatures| which should increase algal growth rates in cold water regions of the ocean| where growth is often limited by an insufficient supply of iron. This effect could increase the ocean's biological carbon pump and thereby decrease CO(2)-linked greenhouse warming. But this cold water enhancement of iron availability may be countered by ongoing global warming| generating a potential positive feedback that further increases atmospheric CO(2) and global temperatures. 12518,2011,2,4,Interannual and decadal SST-forced responses of the West African monsoon,We review the studies carried out during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)-EU on the changes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST)-West African monsoon (WAM) covariability at multidecadal timescales| together with the influence of global warming (GW). The results obtained in the AMMA-EU suggest the importance of the background state| modulated by natural and anthropogenic variability| in the appearance of different interannual modes. The lack of reliability of current coupled models in giving a realistic assessment for WAM in the future is also stated. Copyright (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society 3474,2011,2,4,Interannual flexibility in breeding phenology of a Neotropical migrant songbird in response to weather conditions at breeding and wintering areas,Changes in climate that affect breeding phenology can have important ramifications for the population dynamics of migratory wildlife. In birds| predicted changes in global climate raise concerns over the ability of migratory species| especially long-distance migrants| to adapt to changes in spring weather conditions. At a riparian breeding site in southern Manitoba| we found that over 3 decades (1974 to 2003)| migratory yellow warblers (Dendroica petechia) exhibited considerable plasticity in their timing of clutch initiation in response to mean May temperatures at the breeding site. Spring arrival dates estimated during the last 9 y of our study were also highly variable and correlated with mean May temperatures. By contrast| we found no support for an effect of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation| a climatic phenomenon known to affect weather conditions on wintering grounds of yellow warblers| on spring arrival dates or timing of breeding. This suggests that El Nino/Southern Oscillation did not have carry-over effects on spring arrival dates or timing of clutch initiation. The results from our study are consistent with the timing of breeding in Neotropical migrant songbirds being flexible and closely coupled with spring temperatures (mean daily May temperatures) at breeding sites. These findings are important for predicting how sensitive long-distance migrant birds may be to changes in spring conditions caused by climatic warming. 12065,2011,5,4,Interdecadal modulation of El Nino amplitude during the past millennium,The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on Earth| alternating between anomalously warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) conditions in the tropical Pacific at intervals of 2-8 years(1|2). The amplitude of ENSO variability affects the occurrence and predictability of climate extremes around the world(3|4)| but our ability to detect and predict changes in ENSO amplitude is limited by the fact that the instrumental record is too short to characterize its natural variability(5-8). Here we use the North American Drought Atlas(9|10)-a database of drought reconstructions based on tree-ring records-to produce a continuous| annually resolved record of ENSO variability over the past 1|100 years. Our record is in broad agreement with independent| ENSO-sensitive proxy records in the Pacific and surrounding regions. Together| these records indicate that ENSO amplitude exhibits a quasi-regular cycle of 50-90 years that is closely coupled to the tropical Pacific mean state. Anomalously warm conditions in the eastern Pacific are associated with enhanced ENSO variability| consistent with model simulations(11). The quasi-periodic ENSO amplitude modulation reported here offers a key observational constraint for improving models and their prediction of ENSO behaviour linked to global warming. 11736,2011,2,4,Interdependent effects of habitat quality and climate on population growth of an endangered plant,1. To predict the viability of populations| it is essential to clarify how performance depends both on large-scale environmental changes| such as climate warming| and on the local habitat. However| in spite of their potential importance| effects of interactions between large-scale environmental changes and the local environment on population viability have rarely been examined. 2. We investigated how population dynamics of the endangered alpine plant Dracocephalum austriacum depend on local habitat quality and climatic variation| as well as how effects of climate depend on local habitat. We used lasso regression shrinkage and integral projection models to identify effects on vital rates and population growth rates in seven populations over seven annual transitions. 3. Populations on steeper slopes had lower survival and stochastic population growth rate than populations on more gentle slopes. In years with low spring temperatures and high summer temperatures| survival and population growth rate were lower. In addition| the negative effects of high summer temperatures did depend on local habitat quality| being more negative in populations on steeper slopes. 4. Combining the net positive effects of high spring temperature and the net negative effects of high summer temperature on plant vital rates with predicted climate change over the next 30 years suggested that effects on D. austriacum would be relatively small. 5. Synthesis. Our results show that different aspects of a warmer climate may have opposing effects on populations| and that climatic effects may depend on local habitat quality. Such interactive effects should be accounted for when determining effects of large-scale environmental changes on population and community dynamics. 3312,2011,2,4,Interdisciplinary progress in food production| food security and environment research,This review examines contributions of interdisciplinary (ID) research to understanding interactions between environmental quality| food production and food security. Global patterns of food insecurity and crop production are reviewed in relation to climate| land use and economic changes| as well as potential productivity increases compatible with environmental conservation. Interactions between food production and global processes make food insecurity a complex problem that requires ID analysis at local to global scales. Census and satellite data contribute to understanding of global cropland distribution. Analysis of land-use change exemplifies research between natural and social sciences. Quantitative modelling of global climate change impacts indicates relatively greater potential food insecurity in developing countries. International food security is increasingly interconnected through economic globalization and incentives for increased food production are required. Societies may not be able to expand available cropland without significant environmental risks; enhanced land and water productivity are the major opportunities available to increase food production. This requires renewed efforts in ID work to design and implement sound and efficient agricultural management practices. Models need to be informed by data from field experiments| long-term measurements and watershed monitoring by ground and remote sensing methods. Agricultural intensification may spare natural land but lead to increased pollution and water demand; reconciling conservation and productivity is a critical need. ID work provides many opportunities for synergies including conservation agriculture at the local level| efficient use of inputs| smarter land use taking into account spatial patterns and landscape ecology principles| and improved water management at field| system| watershed and basin levels. Goal-directed ID research is crucial| since producers| practitioners and policy makers should be involved. Geospatial| biotechnological and precision agriculture technologies linked with models can help inform strategies to achieve sustainable food production increases that maintain environmental quality. Implementation also requires ID work to overcome impediments due to human factors and facilitate adoption by farmers. 3285,2011,2,4,Interesting times: winners| losers| and system shifts under climate change around Australia,Feedback and change are basic features of ecosystems| something global change has highlighted. Changes in the physical environment will see shifts in species ranges| community compositions| and ultimately the form and function of ecosystem and the human societies that exploit them. What these shifts will be depends on which of the competing (and potentially counteracting) mechanisms dominate through space and time. Moreover| changes are unlikely to be simple or linear; there will be winners| losers| and surprises. It also means that management will be complex and non-stationary| presenting management| scientific| and statistical challenges. 11955,2011,3,3,International support of climate change policies in developing countries: Strategic| moral and fairness aspects,International transfers in climate policy channeled from the industrialized to the developing world either support the mitigation of climate change or the adaptation to global warming. From a purely allocative point of view| transfers supporting mitigation tend to be Pareto-improving whereas this is not very likely in the case of adaptation support. We illustrate this by regarding transfer schemes currently applied under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto framework. However| if we enrich the analysis by integrating distributional aspects| we find that international adaptation funding may help both the developing and developed world. Interestingly this is not due to altruistic incentives| but due to follow-up effects on international negotiations on climate change mitigation. We argue that the lack of fairness perceived by developing countries in the international climate policy arena can be reduced by the support of adaptation in these countries. As we show - taking into account different fairness concepts - this might raise the prospects of success in international negotiations on climate change. Yet| we find that the influence of transfers may induce different fairness effects on climate change mitigation negotiations to run counter. We discuss whether current transfer schemes under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto framework adequately serve the distributive and allocative objectives pursued in international climate policy. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11676,2011,2,4,Interpreting the temperature-induced response of ammonia oxidizing microorganisms in soil using nitrogen isotope fractionation,Although nitrification plays a key role in the fate of soil nitrogen (N) under global warming| little information is available for the nitrifiers' response to changing temperatures. Nitrogen isotope fractionation associated with nitrification can be a proxy of nitrifiers' sensitivity to changing temperature. We hypothesized that the temperature-induced balance between the transport of substrate NH (4) (+) into the microbial cell (supply) and the intracellular NH (4) (+) oxidation (consumption) governs the intracellular NH (4) (+) concentration and then affects nitrification rates and associated isotope fractionations. This study was conducted to understand the microbial response of NH (4) (+) oxidation to changing temperatures by examining the effect of changing temperature on nitrification rate and apparent isotope fractionation. A batch aerobic incubation was conducted with a sandy loam soil over 150 days at three different soil temperatures: 10| 20| and 30A degrees C. After applying ammonium sulfate| we analyzed the temporal variations in the concentrations and the isotopic compositions of soil inorganic N and calculated nitrification rates and isotope fractionation factors. Net nitrification rate increased with increasing soil temperature| while apparent isotope fractionation factors decreased. The increased net nitrification rate was attributable to both an increase in NH (4) (+) transport across cell membranes and an increase in intracellular enzymatic activity. Meanwhile| the decreased apparent isotope fractionation suggested that NH (4) (+) oxidation rate became faster than NH (4) (+) transport rate| resulting in a decrease in intracellular NH (4) (+) concentrations. Although intracellular NH (4) (+) transport and oxidation were not directly measured in this study| it is concluded that NH (4) (+) oxidation is more sensitive to increasing temperature than NH (4) (+) transport judging from the apparent N isotopic fractionation associated with NH (4) (+) concentration changes (mainly by nitrification) under different temperature regimes. 3222,2011,2,4,Intra and interannual variability in the Madeira River water chemistry and sediment load,Concentrations of cations (Na(+)| Ca(2+)| Mg(2+)| K(+)| NH(4) (+))| anions (HCO(3) (-)| Cl(-)| NO(3) (-)| SO(4) (2-)| PO(4) (3-)) and suspended sediments in the Madeira River water were determined near the city of Porto Velho (RO)| in order to assess variation in water chemistry from 2004 to 2007. Calcium and bicarbonate were the dominant cation and anion| respectively. Significant seasonal differences were found| with highest concentrations occurring during the dry season| as expected from the drainage of Andean carbonate-rich substratum. Interannual variations were also observed| but became significant only when annual average discharge was 25% less than normal. Under this atypical discharge condition| bicarbonate was replaced by sulfate| and higher suspended sediment concentrations and loads were also observed. Compared to previously published studies| it appears that no significant changes in water chemistry have occurred during the last 20-30 years| although differences in approaches and sampling designs among this and previous studies may not allow detection of modest changes. The calculated suspended sediment load reported here is close to the values presented elsewhere| reinforcing the relative importance of this river as a sediment supplier for the Amazon Basin. Seasonality has a significant control on the chemistry of Madeira River waters| and severe decrease in discharge due to anthropogenic changes| such as construction of reservoirs or the occurrence of drier years-a plausible consequence of global climate change-may lead to modification in the chemical composition as well in the sediment deliver to the Amazon River. 11752,2011,2,4,Intra-specific variability and plasticity influence potential tree species distributions under climate change,Aim To assess the effect of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity on the potential distribution of species under future climate changes. Trees may be adapted to specific climatic conditions; however| species range predictions have classically been assessed by species distributionmodels (SDMs) that do not account for intra-specific genetic variability and phenotypic plasticity| because SDMs rely on the assumption that species respond homogeneously to climate change across their range| i.e. a species is equally adapted throughout its range| and all species are equally plastic. These assumptions could cause SDMs to exaggerate or underestimate species at risk under future climate change. Location The Iberian Peninsula. Methods Species distributions are predicted by integrating experimental data and modelling techniques. We incorporate plasticity and local adaptation into a SDM by calibrating models of tree survivorship with adaptive traits in provenance trials. Phenotypic plasticity was incorporated by calibrating our model with a climatic index that provides a measure of the differences between sites and provenances. Results We present a new modelling approach that is easy to implement and makes use of existing tree provenance trials to predict species distribution models under global warming. Our results indicate that the incorporation of intra- population genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity in SDMs significantly altered their outcome. In comparing species range predictions| the decrease in area occupancy under global warming conditions is smaller when considering our survival-adaptation model than that predicted by a 'classical SDM' calibrated with presence-absence data. These differences in survivorship are due to both local adaptation and plasticity. Differences due to the use of experimental data in the model calibration are also expressed in our results: we incorporate a null model that uses survival data from all provenances together. This model always predicts less reduction in area occupancy for both species than the SDM calibrated with presence-absence. Main conclusions We reaffirm the importance of considering adaptive traits when predicting species distributions and avoiding the use of occurrence data as a predictive variable. In light of these recommendations| we advise that existing predictions of future species distributions and their component populations must be reconsidered. 12723,2011,2,4,Invasion of non-native grasses causes a drop in soil carbon storage in California grasslands,Vegetation change can affect the magnitude and direction of global climate change via its effect on carbon cycling among plants| the soil and the atmosphere. The invasion of non-native plants is a major cause of land cover change| of biodiversity loss| and of other changes in ecosystem structure and function. In California| annual grasses from Mediterranean Europe have nearly displaced native perennial grasses across the coastal hillsides and terraces of the state. Our study examines the impact of this invasion on carbon cycling and storage at two sites in northern coastal California. The results suggest that annual grass invasion has caused an average drop in soil carbon storage of 40 Mg/ha in the top half meter of soil| although additional mechanisms may also contribute to soil carbon losses. We attribute the reduction in soil carbon storage to low rates of net primary production in non-native annuals relative to perennial grasses| a shift in rooting depth and water use to primarily shallow sources| and soil respiratory losses in non-native grass soils that exceed production rates. These results indicate that even seemingly subtle land cover changes can significantly impact ecosystem functions in general| and carbon storage in particular. 11650,2011,4,2,Investigating the possibility of a human component in various pacific decadal oscillation indices,The pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is a mode of natural decadal climate variability| typically defined as the principal component of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. To remove any global warming signal present in the data| the traditional definition specifies that monthly-mean| global-average SST anomalies are subtracted from the local anomalies. Differences in the warming rates over the globe and the PDO region may therefore be aliased into the PDO index. Here| we examine the possibility of a human component in the PDO| considering three different definitions. The implications of these definitions are explored using SSTs from both observations and simulations of historical and future climate| all projected onto (definition-dependent) observed PDO patterns. In the twenty first century scenarios| a systematic anthropogenic component is found in all three PDO indices. Under the first definition-in which no warming signal is removed-this component is so large that it is also statistically detectable in the observed PDO. Using the second/traditional definition| this component is also large| and arises primarily from the differential warming rates predicted in the North Pacific and over global oceans. Removing the spatial average SST signal in the PDO region (in the third definition) partially solves this problem| but a human signal persists because the predicted pattern of SST response to human forcing projects strongly onto the PDO pattern. This illustrates the importance of separating internally-generated and externally-forced components in the PDO| and suggests that caution should be exercised in using PDO indices for statistical removal of "natural variability" effects from observational datasets. 11634,2011,3,3,Investigation of the potential for mineral carbonation of PGM tailings in South Africa,Increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentration is currently of considerable concern in terms of global warming. A possible technology that can contribute to the reduction of CO(2) emissions is its sequestration by mineral carbonation. In this study| tailings from several different platinum mines in South Africa will be mineralogically characterised and their potential for mineral carbonation reviewed. Mg and Ca-rich minerals (plagioclase| olivine| orthopyroxene| clinopyroxene) present in the tailings are good candidates for mineral carbonation| which mimics natural weathering processes in which these minerals react with gaseous CO(2) to form Ca or Mg carbonates. Since the reaction is influenced by particle surface area| the ultra fine grained nature of the PGM tailings provides another reason for the promise of PGM tailings for mineral carbonation. A preliminary ranking of the tailings samples and their efficacy for mineral carbonation has been developed according to whether the samples showed harzburgtic (e.g. Northam Platinum mine)| pyroxenetic (e.g. BRPM) or noritic mineral assemblages. This information and understanding will assist in identifying opportunities and guiding the development of engineered facilities for the sequestration of CO(2) by means of mineral carbonation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12142,2011,2,4,Ionomic response of Lotus japonicus to different root-zone temperatures,The effects of root-zone temperature (RZT) on the ion uptake| distribution and interactions of 21 (11 essential and 10 non-essential) elements using Lotus japonicus were studied. After acclimation in hydroponics at ambient (25 degrees C) RZT for three weeks| seedlings were exposed to sub-optimal (15 degrees C and 20 degrees C) and ambient RZTs. After one week| plants were harvested and then growth and mineral elements were analyzed. The highest shoot and root biomass was at 25 degrees C and lowest at 15 degrees C RZT. In shoots| the highest concentrations of all elements| except for nickel (Ni)| were at 25 degrees C RZT. At lower RZTs| the reductions in concentrations were more evident especially for trace elements and heavy metals. Except for magnesium (Mg)| the highest root concentrations were at 15 degrees C RZT for all essential elements. Unlike other non-essential elements| the highest cadmium (Cd) and cobalt (Co) concentrations in roots were at 25 degrees C RZT. The shoot/root ratios of almost all elements were affected by sub-optimal RZTs. Only manganese (Mn) and Co showed increased shoot/root ratio at sub-optimal RZTs; and this ratio decreased for other elements. Nickel in shoots and Mn| Co and Cd in roots tended to be negatively correlated with most other elements (either| essential or non-essential) in each respective organ. The present study showed that RZT significantly changed the ion profile of L. japonicus and suggests possible connection between global warming and phyto-accumulation of heavy metals| especially in temperate regions| since most metals tended to accumulate in shoots at higher RZT. 11700,2011,3,4,Iron reduction process using transferred plasma,As global warming regulations are expected to become more stringent by the Kyoto Protocol| the steel industry| one of the representative industries in the view of greenhouse-gas emission and huge-energy consumption| has been strained to prepare for the new environmental protocol. Hereupon| low-carbon technologies for the iron reduction process draw much attention from both academia and industries. At sufficiently high temperature| it is reported that an arc plasma torch system has a higher reduction power compared to the conventional system which uses coke for iron reduction. In this paper| we have studied the arc plasma torch system for the iron production with low-carbon emission; hydrogen is added to the plasma-forming gas to realize the reduction atmosphere; a furnace| composed of a graphite crucible and a refractory wall| is designed to control the process conditions| such as temperature| pressure| and surrounding gas in a water-cooled chamber. The relations between the iron production and the carbon dioxide emission are investigated at various operating conditions of input power| gas flow rate and hydrogen mole fraction. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12564,2011,2,4,Irradiance and pH affect coccolithophore community composition on a transect between the North Sea and the Arctic Ocean,Little is known about the distribution of coccolithophores in Arctic regions| or the reasons why they are absent from certain locations but thrive in others. Factors thought to affect coccolithophore distribution include nutrients| salinity| temperature and light| as well as carbonate chemistry parameters. Here we present data collected in summer 2008 along a transect between the North Sea and Svalbard (Arctic). Coccolithophore abundance and diversity were measured and compared with a set of environmental variables that included macronutrients| salinity| temperature| irradiance| pH and Omega(calcite). Eighteen coccolithophore species were found in the southern North Sea where coccolithophores were previously thought to be absent. In the ice-covered region north of Svalbard| coccolithophores were scarce and dominated by the family Papposphaeraceae. A multivariate approach showed that changes in pH and mixed layer irradiance explained most of the variation in cocco lithophore distribution and community composition (Spearman's r(S) = 0.62). Differences between the Svalbard population and those from other regions were mostly explained by pH (r(S) = 0.45)| whereas mixed layer irradiance explained most of the variation between the North Sea| Norwegian Sea and Arctic water assemblages (r(S) = 0.40). Estimates of cell specific calcification rates showed that species composition can considerably affect community calcification. Consequently| future ocean acidification (changes in pH) and stratification due to global warming (changes in mixed layer irradiance) may influence pelagic calcification by inducing changes in the species composition of cocco lithophore communities. 11910,2011,3,4,Is Biodegradability a Desirable Attribute for Discarded Solid Waste? Perspectives from a National Landfill Greenhouse Gas Inventory Model,There is increasing interest in the use of biodegradable materials because they are believed to be "greener". In a landfill| these materials degrade anaerobically to form methane and carbon dioxide. The fraction of the methane that is collected can be utilized as an energy source and the fraction of the biogenic carbon that does not decompose is stored in the landfill. A landfill life-cycle model was developed to represent the behavior of MSW components and new materials disposed in a landfill representative of the U.S. average with respect to gas collection and utilization over a range of environmental conditions (i.e.| arid| moderate wet| and bioreactor). The behavior of materials that biodegrade at relatively fast (food waste)| medium (biodegradable polymer) and slow (newsprint and office paper) rates was studied. Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyoctanoate) (PHBO) was selected as illustrative for an emerging biodegradable polymer. Global warming potentials (GWP) of 26| 720| -1000| 990| and 1300 kg CO(2)e wet Mg(-1) were estimated for MSW| food waste| newsprint| office paper| and PHBO| respectively in a national average landfill. In a state-of-the-art landfill with gas collection and electricity generation| GWP's of -250| 330| -1400| -96| and -420 kg CO(2)e wet Mg(-1) were estimated for MSW| food waste| newsprint| office paper and PHBO| respectively. Additional simulations showed that for a hypothetical material| a slower biodegradation rate and a lower extent of biodegradation improve the environmental performance of a material in a landfill representative of national average conditions. 12666,2011,4,7,Is Global Warming Mainly Due to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions?,Although there is little controversy about global warming| there is still a debate regarding whether global warming is mainly due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Many researchers strongly believe that global warming is mainly due to greenhouse gas emissions. However| other scientists argue that the standard models overstate the importance of CO(2) emissions. We propose a reduced-form regression-based test. With the temperature and CO(2) emissions data from the U.S.| we find little evidence in support of the notion that recent global warming is mainly due to CO(2) emissions. Our results| therefore| call for more research on the causes of recent global warming.
12413,2011,2,4,Is the distribution of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus ecotypes in the Mediterranean Sea affected by global warming?,Biological communities populating the Mediterranean Sea| which is situated at the northern boundary of the subtropics| are often claimed to be particularly affected by global warming. This is indicated| for instance| by the introduction of (sub) tropical species of fish or invertebrates that can displace local species. This raises the question of whether microbial communities are similarly affected| especially in the Levantine basin where sea surface temperatures have significantly risen over the last 25 years (0.50 +/- 0.11 degrees C in average per decade| P < 0.01). In this paper| the genetic diversity of the two most abundant members of the phytoplankton community| the picocyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus| was examined during two cruises through both eastern and western Mediterranean Sea basins held in September 1999 (PROSOPE cruise) and in June-July 2008 (BOUM cruise). Diversity was studied using dot blot hybridization with clade-specific 16S rRNA oligonucleotide probes and/or clone libraries of the 16S-23S ribosomal DNA Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) region| with a focus on the abundance of clades that may constitute bioindicators of warm waters. During both cruises| the dominant Prochlorococcus clade in the upper mixed layer at all stations was HLI| a clade typical of temperate waters| whereas the HLII clade| the dominant group in (sub) tropical waters| was only present at very low concentrations. The Synechococcus community was dominated by clades I| III and IV in the northwestern waters of the Gulf of Lions and by clade III and groups genetically related to clades WPC1 and VI in the rest of the Mediterranean Sea. In contrast| only a few sequences of clade II| a group typical of warm waters| were observed. These data indicate that local cyanobacterial populations have not yet been displaced by their ( sub) tropical counterparts. 12477,2011,2,4,Is the health of British Columbia's forests being influenced by climate change? If so| was this predictable?,Over 14 million hectares of lodgepole pine-dominated forests in British Columbia (BC)| Canada| have been severely impacted by the current mountain pine beetle epidemic. Simultaneously| a Dothistroma needle blight epidemic in northwest BC has been responsible for killing thousands of hectares of pine plantations and has even resulted in the death of mature trees| which is unprecedented. Both of these globally significant forest pest epidemics have been linked to climate change. The beetle epidemic has grossly exceeded the scale of all previously recorded outbreaks| in large part due to a lack of cold winters. In this sense| the link to global warming is relatively straightforward and foreseeable. Of all climate change projections| the prediction of an increase in winter temperatures has been associated with as high a degree of confidence as any. The Dothistroma needle blight epidemic and its link to climate change were not so predictable. Based on weather records over the past four decades| short-term increases in mean summer precipitation correlate closely with historical records of Dothistroma outbreaks in the northwest. The current most severe outbreak has occurred during a prolonged period of above-average summer precipitation. An increase in summer precipitation would more typically be thought of as beneficial for forests| but that increase in moisture has improved the conditions for a pathogen that has outweighed any benefits. Similar trends of increasing incidence and severity for other forest pathogens in BC appear in areas that have been receiving increased summer precipitation. Conversely| in the southern interior of the province decreased summer precipitation and increased drought conditions are resulting in stressed trees which can favour root diseases. Early indications are that climate change will have profound effects on forest health. Some effects will be more predictable than others. 11765,2011,2,3,Is the northern high-latitude land-based CO(2) sink weakening?,[1] Studies indicate that| historically| terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high-latitude region may have been responsible for up to 60% of the global net land-based sink for atmospheric CO(2). However| these regions have recently experienced remarkable modification of the major driving forces of the carbon cycle| including surface air temperature warming that is significantly greater than the global average and associated increases in the frequency and severity of disturbances. Whether Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems will continue to sequester atmospheric CO(2) in the face of these dramatic changes is unknown. Here we show the results of model simulations that estimate a 41 Tg C yr(-1) sink in the boreal land regions from 1997 to 2006| which represents a 73% reduction in the strength of the sink estimated for previous decades in the late 20th century. Our results suggest that CO(2) uptake by the region in previous decades may not be as strong as previously estimated. The recent decline in sink strength is the combined result of (1) weakening sinks due to warming-induced increases in soil organic matter decomposition and (2) strengthening sources from pyrogenic CO(2) emissions as a result of the substantial area of boreal forest burned in wildfires across the region in recent years. Such changes create positive feedbacks to the climate system that accelerate global warming| putting further pressure on emission reductions to achieve atmospheric stabilization targets. 12682,2011,2,6,Is the recessional pattern of Himalayan glaciers suggestive of anthropogenically induced global warming?,Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report of 2001| a hype regarding the future of Himalayan glaciers| flooding of Indo-Gangetic plains and coastal areas and drying of glacially fed rivers has been created. However| the recent studies of some of the Himalayan glaciers indicate that the rate of recession of most of the glaciers in general is on decline. These observations are in contradiction to the widely popularized concept of anthropogenically induced global warming. It is believed that the rise of temperature of around 0.6A degrees C since mid-nineteenth century is a part of decadal to centennial-scale climatic fluctuations that have been taking place on this Earth for the past few thousands of years. 3330,2011,3,2,Is there an optimum level for renewable energy?,Because continued heavy use of fossil fuel will lead to both global climate change and resource depletion of easily accessible fuels| many researchers advocate a rapid transition to renewable energy (RE) sources. In this paper we examine whether RE can provide anywhere near the levels of primary energy forecast by various official organisations in a business-as-usual world. We find that the energy costs of energy will rise in a non-linear manner as total annual primary RE output increases. In addition| increasing levels of RE will lead to increasing levels of ecosystem maintenance energy costs per unit of primary energy output. The result is that there is an optimum level of primary energy output| in the sense that the sustainable level of energy available to the economy is maximised at that level. We further argue that this optimum occurs at levels well below the energy consumption forecasts for a few decades hence. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11841,2011,2,4,Isolated and integrated effects of sea level rise| seasonal runoff shifts| and annual runoff volume on California's largest water supply,A 3-step perturbation ratio method is designed to facilitate the separation of seasonal pattern shifts of inflow to reservoirs from 2 other climate change factors: annual inflow change and sea level rise. The modeled region provides source water for the State Water Project and Central Valley Project of California. Four groups of the water planning simulation model CALSIM II run are implemented to isolate individual impacts of seasonal pattern shift of inflow to reservoirs| annual inflow volume change| and sea level rise on water supply in this region. Estimates of climate change impacts on water supply are made for the middle and end of the 21st century. These impacts are in terms of the ensemble means of CALSIM II simulation results for each of 12 climate model projections under the A2 or B1 emission scenario. The results indicate that around the middle of this century annual inflow changes contribute most to climate change impacts on water supply. But near the end of the century sea level rise of 61 cm in San Francisco Bay plays a major role in affecting water supplies. Published by Elsevier B.V. 11755,2011,3,1,Isolation and application of SO(X) and NO(X) resistant microalgae in biofixation of CO(2) from thermoelectricity plants,Microalgae have been studied for their potential use in foodstuffs| agriculture| in the treatment of wastewater and| in particular| in the reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide| the main cause of global warming. Thermoelectricity plants account for 22% of CO(2) emitted into the atmosphere and native microalgae may be more tolerant to the gases emitted from burning fossil fuels. In the study presented here| microalgae were isolated from ponds next to a Thermoelectricity Plant| located in southern Brazil| and identified as Synechococcus nidulans and Chlorella vulgaris. The isolated microalgae were grown and compared with two different strains of microalgae| Spirulina sp. and Scenedesmus obliquus| for CO(2) biofixation. The microalgae were exposed to 12% CO(2)| 60 ppm of SO(2) and 100 ppm of NO| simulating a gas from coal combustion. The C. vulgaris had similar behavior to Spirulina sp.| with 13.43% of maximum daily fixation. The microalgae with the greater fixing capacity were C. vulgaris and Spirulina sp. and these can be grown in electric power plants for CO(2) biofixation of the coal combustion gas| which would help reduce global warming. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12760,2011,2,4,Joint PDFs for Australian climate in future decades and an idealized application to wheat crop yield,The possible range of climate variables at a location for decades in the future is represented using a probability density function derived by summing distributions for both change forced by global warming and unforced decadal variability. Both components are estimated from CMIP3 climate model simulations. Standard deviations of decadal means in temperature and rainfall for locations in the Australian region are presented. The methods are extended to determine joint PDFs for rainfall and temperature| and these allow for the anticorrelations diagnosed for the pair over much of Australia. The distributions derived for the change in climate by 2070 in central New South Wales are then combined with a simple impact function for wheat| to illustrate a potential application of joint PDFs. The forced change in the crop in this idealized example has a distribution that ranges from small declines to substantial increases| largely driven by the effect of CO2 on plant growth. The anticorrelation broadens the range of impact| compared to the case where this is not allowed for. The distribution is also broadened in the decadal case| in which warmer and drier decades can produce declines in the crop. Increases are less likely in corresponding results for three southern and western wheat regions| where decreased rainfall is likely. This joint PDF approach can potentially allow efficient estimation of various impacts in multiple locations provided realistic impact functions are available. 3292,2011,3,4,Keep it alive| don't freeze it: a conceptual perspective on the conservation of continuously evolving satoyama landscapes,In recent years| efforts to conserve and restore satoyama landscapes have become increasingly prevalent throughout Japan. These efforts have conserved threatened landscapes| protected biodiversity and engaged civil society in land-use planning and management. However| the conservation of satoyama continues to present a paradox familiar to landscape planners and ecologists: how can we conserve| but avoid freezing| landscapes of dynamic change? This article works through this paradox by examining the dynamic and continually evolving history of satoyama woodlands. The history of satoyama presented here demonstrates that these landscapes have been| and continue to be| produced in tandem with the evolving needs of successive generations. Accordingly| it is imperative to consider how satoyama landscapes might mesh with present day social needs and values. Faced with curbing global climate change| we suggest that present day social needs and values are well aligned with utilizing satoyama woodlands as a source of renewable biomass energy to reduce carbon emissions and realize associated multifunctional woodland values. Thus| the conceptual perspective advanced here is that resolution of the continuing conservation paradox lies in taking the freeze off satoyama woodlands-and by extension other vernacular landscapes-and thereby letting them live. 12622,2011,4,4,Kinetic study of gas phase reactions of OH with CF(3)CH(2)OH| CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH| and CHF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH using LP-LIF method,The rate coefficients for the reactions of OH radicals with three fluoroalcohols| CF(3)CH(2)OH (k(1))| CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH (k(2))| and CHF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH (k(3))| have been measured in the temperature range of 298-363 K| at a total pressure of similar to 55 torr| using LP-LIF method. The kinetic parameters measured for CF(3)CH(2)OH| which is well studied| matches with the previous reports within error limits. The rate expression for k(2) is (1.54 +/- 0.80) x 10(-12) exp (-765 +/- 170)/T) and for k(3) is (1.12 +/- 0.26) x 10(-12) exp (-560 +/- 80)/T). Based on the above values of the rate coefficients| the tropospheric lifetimes with respect to removal by reaction with OH have been estimated to be 0.38 and 0.26 years for CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH and CHF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH respectively| supporting their potential use as HFC alternatives. The results are discussed along with the literature data on other fluoroalcohols. The present study is aimed to assess the effect of additional CF(2) groups and H atoms on tropospheric lifetime and global warming potential of fluoroalcohols. The results confirm that the rate coefficients at room temperature and activation energy parameters are independent of n| for the reaction of OH with fluoroalcohols of general formula CF(3)(CF(2))(n)CH(2)OH| which are potential CFC/HFC alternatives. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12544,2011,3,4,Kurihara Green ICT Project - Towards Symbiosis between Human's Life and Nature,The Kurihara Green ICT Project is aimed to create "symbiosis between our daily life and nature via information communication technology (ICT)." This is a Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications project of Japan| with a budget of 250 million yen for year 2010 and Professor Norio Shiratori is serving as the project leader. Our goal is to conduct a real-world experiment in the community based field to test the technical specification of necessary communication protocol| to realize network integrated control system aimed at community development to reduce environmental burden in the wide-area distributed community. We are also considering international standardization of our proposed protocols. Two themes have been discussed| which will be achieved by the symbiosis between natural environment and human by integration of wide-area distributed community. Theme-1 is an integrated system to ensure seamless communication among heterogenous networks in a wide-area distributed community/offices. Theme-2 is an efficient network management system for reducing environmental burden of wide-area distributed community. Kurihara city| situated in northern Japan| is our experimental field| selected as our demonstration area because of its special characteristics. Human inhabitants of Kurihara are scattered around the entire city area including some in mountainous places. The sub-offices of this city are also far from each other. For these above features| it is considered as a perfect example of distributed system and so an ideal location to test our system. In view of the ongoing debate on global warming| among other developed countries| Japan's former prime minister Yukio Hatoyama pledged to reduce Green House Gas (GHG) emission by 25% by year 2020. To achieve such an ambitious goal| in a symbiosis society a cooperative coexistence of human and information technology is very much essential. In this paper| we describe our project's concept and initial experimental result for human-nature symbiosis. 11978,2011,3,2,Kyoto Protocol and "deforestation" A legal analysis on Turkish environment and forest legislation,Today| one of the most important environmental issues that pose international threats is global warming and| as a result| climate changes. As a result of the researches led by developed nations to detect adverse effects of human-originated greenhouse gas emissions| which have already reached dangerous levels in the atmosphere| on the climate system| the need to take global action about this matter has been revealed. Kyoto Protocol| which is adopted in 1997 and now considered as the most significant international effort ever made to minimize the effects of global warming and climate changes| is of great importance for determining the obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the applicable mechanisms. After a long process| Turkey has become a party to Kyoto Protocol in 2009 and thus undertaken the obligations stipulated for the parties thereto. In the present study| "deforestation" has been picked out of the five driving factors of the said Protocol due to importance of forests as significant carbon sinks| and adequacy of Turkish environment and forest legislation relating to this matter has been analyzed. Purpose of this study is to assess| under the title of "deforestation". Turkish environment and forest legislation with respect to achievement of Kyoto Protocol's goal and to reveal deficiencies of this legislation| and according to the results of such assessment| to make suggestions for Turkey's fulfillment of its obligations mentioned above. As a result of the general assessment made in the light of all data above on Turkish environment and forestry legislation with respect to deforestation| we can say that this legislation is currently cannot be considered as adequate to fulfill the obligations under Kyoto Protocol. However| this does not mean that the norms are wholly negative and inadequate. Having signed Kyoto Protocol short time ago. Turkey has not undertaken any responsibility for the first period of obligations| but will be subject to the next period of obligations. The first step to fulfill the obligations under the Protocol is to revise the existing legal arrangements| to determine their gaps and to begin working to ensure that the legislation will be adequate to fulfill the obligations to be imposed during the second period of obligations. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12213,2011,3,4,Kyoto protocol and social accounting implication on global-warming in Malaysia: An action research approach,This study examines the relationship between social change demands and tactical decision making processes resulting from apparent global-warming and climate-change by employing an action research methodology. The objective was to uncover the perceptions of Malaysian corporate management concerning the present debate on climate change. These corporate officers occupy the top decision making positions that disperse the day to day operational decisions as well as being directly involved with longer term considerations| particularly of the financial implications of the debates and forthcoming national and international legal implications concerning global-warming/climate-change. This research is a descriptive study. Interviews with the management of 30 randomly selected companies were conducted| and the results and conclusions support the view that carbon trading is not an effective approach to resolve the apparent carbon dioxide problem. This study has provided greater understanding of the corporate view regarding measures aimed at prevention of large rise in global temperatures. 3419,2011,4,4,Land Use Effects on Sample Size Requirements for Soil Organic Carbon Stock Estimations,Soil organic carbon (SOC) stock (in metric tons of carbon per hectare) is calculated from SOC concentration (in grams per kilogram) and soil bulk density (rho(b); in grams per cubic centimeter). Temporal changes in SOC stock are used to calculate terrestrial carbon sequestration rates used in global climate change models. The inherent variability in soil properties like SOC and rho(b) means that larger sample sizes may be needed to accurately determine SOC stocks. Our objective was to calculate the minimum sample size required to detect changes in rho(b)| SOC| and SOC stock for two land uses. Surface soils (0-5 cm) from two reclaimed mine soils and two managed hay fields in northern West Virginia were intensively sampled (60-74 samples each). Mean SOC and SOC stock values were larger in the hay fields (40 g/kg| 29 Mg ha(-1)) than in the mine soils (20 g/kg| 20 Mg ha(-1))| but rho(b) was larger in reclaimed mine soils (1.4 g cm(-3)) than in hay field soils (1.2 g cm(-3)). The rho(b) variance was larger in mine soils than that in hay field soils| but field variances for a given land use were similar (0.09 and 0.11 [g cm(-3)](2) in mine soils; 0.02 and 0.03 [g cm(-3)](2) in hay field soils). The variances in SOC concentration and SOC stock were not related to land use and were not similar within a land use. As a result| the minimum number of samples required to detect a change in rho(b)| SOC| and SOC stock was a site-specific property and cannot be assumed a priori. 12728,2011,3,4,Landowner Willingness to Supply Timber for Biofuel: Results of an Alabama Survey of Family Forest Landowners,A key factor determining the potential for development of cellulosic bioenergy in the southeastern United States ( the South) will be the availability of feedstock| which in turn depends on landowner willingness to direct timber production to biomass rather than existing markets or nonmarket uses. Most timberland in this region is owned by family forest landowners whose forest management objectives are varied. This study evaluates the conditions under which family forest landowners from Lee County| Alabama| would be willing to supply wood biomass energy feedstock for a prospective local biofuel industry. Using standard survey methodology| a questionnaire was mailed to every family forest landowner of 20 or more acres of forestland in Lee County| resulting in 363 valid responses and a response rate of 41%. Results indicate that most family forest landowners are willing to supply both timber and harvest residues for production of biofuels and that such willingness is positively correlated with the number of acres owned| the existence of an effective market| and the opportunity to contribute to local economic development and global climate change. Three-quarters of all respondents indicated willingness to manage their land for biomass production| compared with 43% of respondents who actively manage their land at present. 12198,2011,2,4,Large genetic variation for heat tolerance in the reference collection of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) germplasm,Chickpea is the third most important pulse crop worldwide. Changes in cropping system that necessitate late planting| scope for expansion in rice fallows and the global warming are pushing chickpeas to relatively warmer growing environment. Such changes demand identification of varieties resilient to warmer temperature. Therefore| the reference collection of chickpea germplasm| defined based on molecular characterization of global composite collection| was screened for high temperature tolerance at two locations in India (Patancheru and Kanpur) by delayed sowing and synchronizing the reproductive phase of the crop with the occurrence of higher temperatures (>= 35 degrees C). A heat tolerance index (HTI) was calculated using a multiple regression approach where grain yield under heat stress is considered as a function of yield potential and time to 50% flowering. There were large and significant variations for HTI| phenology| yield and yield components at both the locations. There were highly significant genotypic effects and equally significant G x E interactions for all the traits studied. A cluster analysis of the HTI of the two locations yielded five cluster groups as stable tolerant (n = 18)| tolerant only at Patancheru (n = 34)| tolerant only at Kanpur (n = 23)| moderately tolerant (n 120) and stable sensitive (n = 82). The pod number per plant and the harvest index explained >= 60% of the variation in seed yield and >= 49% of HTI at Kanpur and >= 80% of the seed yield and >= 35% of HTI at Patancheru| indicating that partitioning as a consequence of poor pod set is the most affected trait under heat stress. A large number of heat-tolerant genotypes also happened to be drought tolerant. 12578,2011,2,4,Large geographical differences in the sensitivity of ice-covered lakes and rivers in the Northern Hemisphere to temperature changes,Based on a unique dataset of more than 50 000 observations of ice phenology from 1213 lakes and 236 rivers in 12 different countries| we show that interannual variations in the timing of ice-on and ice-off on lakes and rivers are not equally pronounced over the entire Northern Hemisphere| but increase strongly towards geographical regions that experience only short periods during which the air temperature falls below 0 degrees C. We explain our observations by interannual fluctuation patterns of air temperature and suggest that lake and river ecosystems in such geographical regions are particularly vulnerable to global warming| as high interannual variability is known to have important ramifications for ecosystem structure and functioning. We estimate that the standard deviation of the duration of ice cover| viewed as a measure of interannual variability| exceeds 25 days for lakes and rivers located on 7% of the land area of the Northern Hemisphere. Such high variability might be an early warning signal for a critical transition from strictly dimictic| ice-covered systems to monomictic| open-water systems. Using the Global Lake and Wetland Database| we suggest that 3.7% of the world's lakes larger than 0.1 km2 are at high risk of becoming open-water systems in the near future| which will have immediate consequences for global biogeochemical cycles. 12271,2011,4,3,Large Greenhouse Gas Emissions from a Temperate Peatland Pasture,Agricultural drainage is thought to alter greenhouse gas emissions from temperate peatlands| with CH(4) emissions reduced in favor of greater CO(2) losses. Attention has largely focussed on C trace gases| and less is known about the impacts of agricultural conversion on N(2)O or global warming potential. We report greenhouse gas fluxes (CH(4)| CO(2)| N(2)O) from a drained peatland in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta| California| USA currently managed as a rangeland (that is| pasture). This ecosystem was a net source of CH(4) (25.8 +/- A 1.4 mg CH(4)-C m(-2) d(-1)) and N(2)O (6.4 +/- A 0.4 mg N(2)O-N m(-2) d(-1)). Methane fluxes were comparable to those of other managed temperate peatlands| whereas N(2)O fluxes were very high; equivalent to fluxes from heavily fertilized agroecosystems and tropical forests. Ecosystem scale CH(4) fluxes were driven by "hotspots" (drainage ditches) that accounted for less than 5% of the land area but more than 84% of emissions. Methane fluxes were unresponsive to seasonal fluctuations in climate and showed minimal temporal variability. Nitrous oxide fluxes were more homogeneously distributed throughout the landscape and responded to fluctuations in environmental variables| especially soil moisture. Elevated CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes contributed to a high overall ecosystem global warming potential (531 g CO(2)-C equivalents m(-2) y(-1))| with non-CO(2) trace gas fluxes offsetting the atmospheric "cooling" effects of photoassimilation. These data suggest that managed Delta peatlands are potentially large regional sources of greenhouse gases| with spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture modulating the relative importance of each gas for ecosystem global warming potential. 12443,2011,2,4,Large methane releases lead to strong aerosol forcing and reduced cloudiness,The release of vast quantities of methane into the atmosphere as a result of clathrate destabilization is a potential mechanism for rapid amplification of global warming. Previous studies have calculated the enhanced warming based mainly on the radiative effect of the methane itself| with smaller contributions from the associated carbon dioxide or ozone increases. Here| we study the effect of strongly elevated methane (CH(4)) levels on oxidant and aerosol particle concentrations using a combination of chemistry-transport and general circulation models. A 10-fold increase in methane concentrations is predicted to significantly decrease hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations| while moderately increasing ozone (O(3)). These changes lead to a 70% increase in the atmospheric lifetime of methane| and an 18% decrease in global mean cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC). The CDNC change causes a radiative forcing that is comparable in magnitude to the long-wave radiative forcing ("enhanced greenhouse effect") of the added methane. Together| the indirect CH(4)-O(3) and CH(4)-OHaerosol forcings could more than double the warming effect of large methane increases. Our findings may help explain the anomalously large temperature changes associated with historic methane releases. 12688,2011,5,3,Late Cretaceous-Neogene trends in deep ocean temperature and continental ice volume: Reconciling records of benthic foraminiferal geochemistry (delta O-18 and Mg/Ca) with sea level history,We reconstruct trends in ice volume and deep ocean temperature for the past 108 Myr| resolving variations on timescales of similar to 2 Myr and longer. We use a sea level record as a proxy for ice volume| a benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca-bf record as a proxy for temperature| and a benthic foraminiferal d(18)O(bf) record as a proxy for both. This allows us to construct dual estimates of temperature and ice volume variations for the interval 10-60 Ma: extracting temperature from d(18)O(bf) by using sea level as a proxy for ice volume to constrain the d(18)O(sw) component| and extracting seawater d(18)O(sw) (which reflects ice volume) from d(18)O(bf) by using Mg/Ca-bf to constrain the temperature component. Each of these approaches requires numerous assumptions| but the range of plausible solutions are concordant on timescales >2 Myr and within an uncertainty of +/- 2 degrees C temperature and +/- 0.4 parts per thousand delta O-18(sw). The agreement between the two approaches for the last 50 Myr provides empirical justification for the use of d(18)O(bf)| Mg/Ca-bf| and sea level records as robust climate proxies. Our reconstructions indicate differences between deep ocean cooling and continental ice growth in the late Cenozoic: cooling occurred gradually in the middle-late Eocene and late Miocene-Pliocene while ice growth occurred rapidly in the earliest Oligocene| middle Miocene| and Plio-Pleistocene. These differences are consistent with climate models that imply that temperatures| set by the long-term CO2 equilibrium| should change only gradually on timescales >2 Myr| but growth of continental ice sheets may be rapid in response to climate thresholds due to feedbacks that are not yet fully understood. 3234,2011,2,4,Late-arriving barn swallows linked to population declines,Barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) are arriving later in the spring than they did 30-40 years ago at numerous sites in Korea. In some cases their arrival times are later by more than 1 month. This result is perplexing as spring activities of plants and animals are generally getting earlier due to warming temperatures. The first arrival dates of swallows are not related to temperature| suggesting that another factor is involved. On the basis of a questionnaire| a large majority of long-term observers are confident that there has been a moderate to severe decline in swallow populations at their field site over the study period. The greatest delays in arrival times are associated with sites with more severe reported declines in population size. Simulations using trapping data of large migratory bird populations from the United States| consisting of hundreds of individuals| suggest that severe population declines of 99% can result in delays of 10-12 days in arrival times. In summary| our results suggest that the large delays in arrival time of Korean swallows are due| at least in part| to severe reductions of more than 99% in what were formerly very large populations. Significant delays in spring phenology over time during a period of climatic warming may indicate population decline| though alternative explanations| such as changes in range or migration path or changing number of broods per season| should also be investigated. Delays in first arrival data can provide a valuable new tool to conservation biologists by indicating declines in a population that would otherwise go unnoticed. This can| in turn| lead to efforts by researchers to verify the dynamics of a population and draw attention to the conservation needs of the species. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12235,2011,2,3,Latitudinal Pattern in Species Diversity and its Response to Global Warming in Permafrost Wetlands in the Great Hing'an Mountains| China,Permafrost wetlands are one of the most sensitive plant communities in response to global warming. Global warming could induce natural plant communities to shift into cooler climate zones| or extirpate. To understand how plant communities in permafrost wetlands are affected by global warming| we examined the patterns of plant species diversity in the 24 permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing'an Mountains along a latitudinal gradient. This gradient was characterized by a northward decline in mean annual temperature (Delta= 3.5 degrees C) and mean annual precipitation (Delta= 38.7 mm). Our results indicated that latitudinal patterns in species diversity existed in the permafrost wetlands. The numbers of family| genus and species| the Gleason index and Shannon-Wiener index for shrubs decreased linearly with decreasing latitude| but increased for herbaceous plants. The latitudinal patterns in species diversity had influenced strongly by temperature. Simple linear regression yielded about 2 decreases in shrub number and 9 increases in herbaceous species number with an increase of mean annual temperature by 1 degrees C| with 0.33 decreases in shrub diversity and 0.29 increases in herbaceous species diversity. If temperature warms 3.7 degrees C by 2100| herbaceous plants might increase in the permafrost wetlands| with species number increasing 48% or 6 times and species diversity increasing 40% or 2 times; and some shrub species might decrease and even disappear in part of the areas with lower latitude| with species number decreasing 50-100% and species diversity decreasing 69-100%. The permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing'an Mountains might continue degenerating and shift northward with global warming over the next century. 12120,2011,2,4,Latitudinal variations in the physiology of marine gammarid amphipods,In order to examine the physiological capabilities of marine invertebrates in their natural environment| a series of physiological measurements were conducted on congeneric amphipod species (Genus Gammarus) distributed along a natural thermal gradient in the NE Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. This synoptic paper summarises our most recent findings by describing physiological differences within and between Gammarus species collected from the intertidal between Portugal at 38 degrees N and Svalbard at 79 degrees N. Two physiological variables were examined to include temperature-adaptive responses at two different levels of biological organisation: (1) whole animal responses by measuring oxygen uptake rates as a measure of metabolic rates or costs of living; and (2) molecular responses by examining sequence variation in two functional regions of the myosin heavy chain gene (loops 1 and 2) which influence muscle contractibility. Our initial observations on Gammarus species showed that physiological variation as a function of latitude was species-specific. For instance| the sub-arctic/boreal species Gammarus oceanicus did not compensate its metabolism at polar latitudes. Instead| metabolic rates declined with latitudinal changes in temperature resulting in relatively low rates of metabolism in the sub-arctic population. In contrast| the boreal and temperate species G. locusta and G. duebeni duebeni conserved metabolic rate across latitudes indicating a capacity for physiological compensation. A similar response was observed at the molecular level as sequence diversity in the loop 2 region of the myosin heavy chain gene remained unchanged with latitude in G. oceanicus but increased with latitude in G. d. duebeni which was attributed to differences in thermal habitat. Further work is required to establish whether these physiological differences involve local adaptation or are dependent on phenotypic plasticity. These findings provide valuable information on the ability of each species to adjust their physiology to maintain function despite increases in temperature due to global warming. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11929,2011,3,4,LCA and economic evaluation of landfill leachate and gas technologies,Landfills receiving a mix of waste| including organics| have developed dramatically over the last 3-4 decades; from open dumps to engineered facilities with extensive controls on leachate and gas. The conventional municipal landfill will in most climates produce a highly contaminated leachate and a significant amount of landfill gas. Leachate controls may include bottom liners and leachate collection systems as well as leachate treatment prior to discharge to surface water. Gas controls may include oxidizing top covers| gas collection systems with flares or gas utilization systems for production of electricity and heat. The importance of leachate and gas control measures in reducing the overall environmental impact from a conventional landfill was assessed by life-cycle-assessment (LCA). The direct cost for the measures were also estimated providing a basis for assessing which measures are the most cost-effective in reducing the impact from a conventional landfill. This was done by modeling landfills ranging from a simple open dump to highly engineered conventional landfills with energy recovery in form of heat or electricity. The modeling was done in the waste LCA model EASEWASTE. The results showed drastic improvements for most impact categories. Global warming went from an impact of 0.1 person equivalent (PE) for the dump to -0.05 PE for the best design. Similar improvements were found for photochemical ozone formation (0.02 PE to 0.002 PE) and stratospheric ozone formation (0.04 PE to 0.001 PE). For the toxic and spoiled groundwater impact categories the trend is not as clear. The reason for this was that the load to the environment shifted as more technologies were used. For the dump landfill the main impacts were impacts for spoiled groundwater due to lack of leachate collection| 2.3 PE down to 0.4 PE when leachate is collected. However| at the same time| leachate collection causes a slight increase in eco-toxicity and human toxicity via water (0.007E to 0.013PE and 0.002 to 0.003 PE respectively). The reason for this is that even if the leachate is treated| slight amounts of contaminants are released through emissions of treated wastewater to surface waters. The largest environmental improvement with regard to the direct cost of the landfill was the capping and leachate treatment system. The capping| though very cheap to establish| gave a huge benefit in lowered impacts| the leachate collection system though expensive gave large benefits as well. The other gas measures were found to give further improvements| for a minor increase in cost. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11601,2011,3,4,LCA of environmental and socio-economic impacts related to wood energy production in alpine conditions: Valle di Fiemme (Italy),An extended Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is performed for evaluating the impacts of a woody biomass supply chain for heating plants in the alpine region. Three main aspects of sustainability are assessed: greenhouse gas emissions| represented by global warming potential (GWP) impact category| costs and direct employment potential. We investigate a whole tree system (innovative logging system) where the harvest of logging residues is integrated into the harvest of conventional wood products. The case study is performed in Valle di Fiemme in Trentino region (North Italy) and includes theoretical and practical elements. The system boundary is the alpine forest fuel system| from logging operations at the forest stand to combustion of woody biofuels at the heating plant. The functional unit is 1 m(3) solid over bark of woody biomass| delivered to the district heating plant in Cavalese (Trento). The relative sustainability of traditional and innovative systems is compared and energy use is estimated. Results show that the overall GWP and costs are about 13 kg CO(2equivalent) and 42 euro per functional unit respectively for the innovative system. Along the product supply chain| chipping contributes the greatest share of GWP and energy use| while extraction by yarder has the highest financial costs. The GWP is reduced by 2.3 ton CO(2equivalent) when bioenergy substitutes fuel oil and 1.7 ton CO(2equivalent) when it substitutes natural gas. The sensitivity analysis illustrates that variations in fuel consumption and hourly rates of costs have a great influence on chipping operation and extraction by cable yarder concerning GWP and financial analysis| respectively. This is confirmed by sensitivity analysis. Better technologies| the use of biofuels along the product supply chain and more efficient systems might reduce these impacts. Replacing the traditional system with the innovative one reduces emissions and costs. A low energy input ratio is required for harvesting logging residues. The direct employment potential is a conflicting aspect and needs further investigations. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11761,2011,3,3,LCA of eucalyptus wood charcoal briquettes,This paper sets out to describe the environmental impact assessment for wood charcoal briquettes produced from eucalyptus wood in Brazil| with specific reference to those impacts associated with Global Warming Potential. To achieve that objective| the work was undertaken in accordance with ISO 14040 "Environmental management - Life cycle assessment - Principles and framework" which describes essential LCA characteristics and good practices. Charcoal briquettes are produced from two basic raw materials| charcoal fines and starch. The fines result from the production of charcoal from sustainably managed eucalyptus plantations. Starch is extracted from babacu pulp in the Amazon region. Multi -output processes were allocated based on income from the different by-products. The results showed that more than 90% of incoming CO(2) was due to biomass production for charcoal| and the remainder to starch biomass production. Based on Brazilian data| as well as information provided by the GaBi4.3 database| it turned out that supplying the energy content of 1 kg of briquettes resulted in the sequestration of 3.9690 kg of CO(2)| i.e. around 4 kg of CO(2) per kg of briquettes produced. CO(2) emissions throughout the briquette production process are totally compensated for by the environmental quality of the raw materials used. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12278,2011,3,4,LCA of local strategies for energy recovery from waste in England| applied to a large municipal flow,An intense waste management (WM) planning activity is currently undergoing in England to build the infrastructure necessary to treat residual wastes| increase recycling levels and the recovery of energy from waste. From the analyses of local WM strategic and planning documents we have identified the emerging of three different energy recovery strategies: established combustion of residual waste; pretreatment of residual waste and energy recovery from Solid Recovered Fuel in a dedicated plant| usually assumed to be a gasifier; pre-treatment of residual waste and reliance on the market to accept the 'fuel from waste' so produced. Each energy recovery strategy will result in a different solution in terms of the technology selected; moreover| on the basis of the favoured solution| the total number| scale and location of thermal treatment plants built in England will dramatically change. To support the evaluation and comparison of these three WM strategy in terms of global environmental impacts| energy recovery possibilities and performance with respect to changing 'fuel from waste' market conditions| the LCA comparison of eight alternative WM scenarios for a real case study dealing with a large flow of municipal wastes was performed with the modelling tool WRATE. The large flow of waste modelled allowed to formulate and assess realistic alternative WM scenarios and to design infrastructural systems which are likely to correspond to those submitted for approval to the local authorities. The results show that all alternative scenarios contribute to saving abiotic resources and reducing global warming potential. Particularly relevant to the current English debate| the performance of a scenario was shown to depend not from the thermal treatment technology but from a combination of parameters| among which most relevant are the efficiency of energy recovery processes (both electricity and heat) and the calorific value of residual waste and pre-treated material. The contribution and relative importance of recycling and treatment/recovery processes change with the impact category. The lack of reprocessing plants in the area of the case study has shown the relevance of transport distances for recyclate material in reducing the efficiency of a WM system. Highly relevant to the current English WM infrastructural debate| these results for the first time highlight the risk or a significant reduction in the energy that could be recovered by local WM strategies relying only on the market to dispose of the 'fuel from waste' in a non dedicated plant in the case that the SRF had to be sent to landfill for lack of treatment capacity. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11829,2011,3,4,LCA of the timber sector in Ghana: preliminary life cycle impact assessment (LCIA),Purpose Most life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) approaches in life cycle assessment (LCA) are developed for western countries. Their LCIA approaches and characterization methodologies for different impact categories may not be necessarily relevant to African environmental conditions and particularly not for the timber sector in Ghana. This study reviews the relevance of existing impact categories and LCIA approaches| and uses the most relevant for the timber sector of Ghana. Materials and methods The study reviewed 23 life cycle inventories (LCIs) and LCAs on forestry| timber| and wood products for relevant impact categories and LCIA approaches for their relevance to the specific conditions in Ghana. This study uses an earlier LCI study of the timber industry as a starting point for an additional LCIA. We next performed a correlation and regression analysis to learn whether wood wastes may function as a reasonable single indicator for land use as proxy for biodiversity loss and the other impact categories. Results and discussion The literature review shows that no LCI or LCA studies were developed for Africa or the tropics. The LCIA approaches in the reviewed LCAs are indeed shown to take their basis in the environmental problems in western countries and characterization methodologies relating to how these problems manifest themselves in the western world. Characterization methodologies for different impact categories in CML-2000 and other LCIA approaches may not be necessarily relevant to African tropical environmental conditions and particularly not for the timber sector in Ghana. This situation hampers the reliability of our LCIA and points to a serious research gap in LCIA development in general. We applied the scientifically well-recognized CML 2000 to the earlier LCI results and characterized the preliminary selected impact categories of global warming| acidification| eutrophication| photochemical oxidant formation| and human toxicity. The correlation analysis indicated that wood waste is indeed strongly correlated with land use as proxy for biodiversity loss and also positively correlated with the other five potential impact results. It can be concluded that wood waste production is a major driving force for biodiversity loss and a sufficiently good single indicator for all other environmental performance indicators in the timber sector of Ghana. Conclusions This study and the previous LCI paper are pioneering a field not yet explored| since the correct environmental performance indicators are not yet developed or adapted to tropical conditions. The development of LCIA approaches in the tropics may be the start of a never-ending journey in LCA research in Africa| particularly Ghana. 3360,2011,2,4,LEAF AREA REDUCTION IN CORN GROWN IN A TROPICAL REGION OF BRAZIL AND ITS EFFECTS ON AGRONOMIC TRAITS,Global climate change may reduce leaf area in crop plants due to factors such as increasing occurrence of pests and diseases. The aim of this work was to estimate the impact of leaf area reduction on agronomic traits in corn. An experiment simulating leaf area reduction was carried out in a tropical region of Brazil. The agronomic performance of corn plants was evaluated at different percentages of leaf loss. It was observed that leaf area reductions over 41.01% significantly harm yield| mass of 1000 grains| cob density| and stem and root quality Crop improvement programs should take into account the development of genotypes resistant to factors that cause leaf area reduction in tropical crops. 11667,2011,2,4,Leaf CO(2) efflux is attenuated by acclimation of respiration to heat and drought in a Mediterranean tree,1. Understanding the effect of water deficit on plant respiration and its temperature sensitivity at long time-scales is important for anticipating the shift in ecosystem dynamics that is expected to occur as a result of climate change. 2. We investigated seasonal variations of leaf dark respiration and sensitivity to temperature in the upper and lower canopy of Quercus ilex trees in a forest stand that had been exposed to either 33% throughfall reduction or normal rainfall for the preceding 6 years. 3. For upper and lower canopy leaves| light-saturated photosynthesis and respiration at a reference temperature of 15 degrees C (R(15)) had the lowest values in late summer| when both traits were lower in trees subjected to throughfall reduction than in those subject to control conditions. Respiration acclimated to seasonal shifts in temperature| more intensively through summer than winter and in throughfall-exclusion than control trees. Foliar concentration of soluble sugars was positively correlated with R(15) across seasons. 4. As leaf respiration decreased with increasing water deficit| and the relationship between water status and respiration did not differ between trees that had been exposed to 7 years of enhanced drought when compared with controls| we suggest that drier conditions projected for the Mediterranean may attenuate the stimulation of leaf respiratory CO(2) release by global warming in Q. ilex forests. 3481,2011,2,4,Leaf-level gas-exchange uniformity and photosynthetic capacity among loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) genotypes of contrasting inherent genetic variation,Variation in leaf-level gas exchange among widely planted genetically improved loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) genotypes could impact stand-level water use| carbon assimilation| biomass production| C allocation| ecosystem sustainability and biogeochemical cycling under changing environmental conditions. We examined uniformity in leaf-level light-saturated photosynthesis (A(sat))| stomatal conductance (g(s))| and intrinsic water-use efficiency (A(sat)/g(s) or delta) among nine loblolly pine genotypes (selected individuals): three clones| three full-sib families and three half-sib families| during the early years of stand development (first 3 years)| with each genetic group possessing varying amounts of inherent genetic variation. We also compared light- and CO(2)-response parameters between genotypes and examined the relationship between genotype productivity| gas exchange and photosynthetic capacity. Within full-sib| half-sib and clonal genotypes| the coefficient of variation (CV) for gas exchange showed no consistent pattern; the CV for g(s) and delta was similar within clonal (44.3-46.9 and 35.5-38.6%) and half-sib (41.0-49.3 and 36.8-40.9%) genotypes| while full-sibs showed somewhat higher CVs (46.9-56.0 and 40.1-45.4%). In contrast| the CVs for A(sat) were generally higher within clones. With the exception of delta| differences in gas exchange among genotypes were generally insignificant. Tree volume showed a significant positive correlation with A(sat) and delta| but the relationship varied by season. Individual-tree volume and genotype volume were positively correlated with needle dark respiration (R(d)). Our results suggest that uniformity in leaf-level physiological rates is not consistently related to the amount of genetic variation within a given genotype| and delta| A(sat) and R(d) were the leaf-level physiological parameters that were most consistently related to individual-tree and genotype productivity. An enhanced understanding of molecular and environmental factors that influence physiological variation within and between loblolly pine genotypes may improve assessments of genotype growth potential and sensitivity to global climate change. 12111,2011,3,2,Life cycle analysis of biodiesel production,Biodiesel has attracted considerable attention as a renewable| biodegradable| and nontoxic fuel and can contribute to solving the energy problems| significantly reducing the emission of gases which cause global warming. The first stage of this work was to simulate different alternative processes for producing biodiesel. The method used for the production of biodiesel is the transesterification of vegetable oils with an alcohol in the presence of a catalyst. The raw materials used were palm oils and waste cooking oil. The second stage was a life cycle analysis for all alternatives under study| followed by an economic analysis for the alternatives that present minor impacts and which are more promising from an economic point of view. Finally| we proceeded to compare the different alternatives from both the point of view of life cycle and economic analysis. The feasibility of all processes was proven and the biodiesel obtained had good specifications. From the standpoint of life cycle analysis| the best alternative was the process of alkaline catalysis with acid pretreatment for waste cooking oil. The economic analysis was done to the previous mentioned process and to the process that uses raw virgin oils. methanol| and sodium hydroxide. This process has lower investment costs but the process of alkaline catalysis with acid pre-treatment| whose main raw material is waste oil| is much more profitable and has less environmental impacts. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12658,2011,3,3,Life cycle assessment (LCA) of crops for energy production,The replacement of fossil fuels by biomass in the power generation process is an important strategy promoted by the European Union (EU). This is aimed at reducing the effects of climate change along with increased security of supply and diversification of energy sources. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an increasingly popular method for research due to the difficulties associated with environmental impact assessment. This technique is aimed at analysing and evaluating the environmental impact of materials| products or services through the entire cycle of production. The paper presents the application of an LCA study to assess the impact of energy crops on the environment. The aim of the study was to compare the environmental impact of various crops used for biofuel production. We have estimated the potential global warming| acidification and eutrophication for crops from the lignocelluloses group (willow| Miscanthus) and traditional plants for Polish agriculture (wheat| rapeseed| potato). 11653,2011,3,3,Life cycle assessment of a household solid waste source separation programme: a Swedish case study,The environmental impact of an extended property close source-separation system for solid household waste (i.e. a systems for collection of recyclables from domestic properties) is investigated in a residential area in southern Sweden. Since 2001| households have been able to source-separate waste into six fractions of dry recyclables and food waste sorting. The current system was evaluated using the EASEWASTE life cycle assessment tool. Current status is compared with an ideal scenario in which households display perfect source-separation behaviour and a scenario without any material recycling. Results show that current recycling provides substantial environmental benefits compared to a non-recycling alternative. The environmental benefit varies greatly between recyclable fractions| and the recyclables currently most frequently source-separated by households are often not the most beneficial from an environmental perspective. With optimal source-separation of all recyclables| the current net contribution to global warming could be changed to a net-avoidance while current avoidance of nutrient enrichment| acidification and photochemical ozone formation could be doubled. Sensitivity analyses show that the type of energy substituted by incineration of non-recycled waste| as well as energy used in recycling processes and in the production of materials substituted by waste recycling| is of high relevance for the attained results. 11678,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of an industrial symbiosis based on energy recovery from dried sludge and used oil,Recovering energy from wastes is a useful strategy for integrated waste and energy management in an eco-industrial park (EIP) and gives promising reduction of wastes| total energy consumption and operation cost. In Jinqiao EIP| Pudong New Area| Shanghai| an industrial symbiosis| based on the energy recovery from municipal sewage sludge and re-refined oil| was proposed in the central heat-supplying company of Jinqiao EIP. It is expected that hot off-gas or part of the steam from the central heat-supplying company could be used for sludge drying and used oil re-refining while the dried sludge and refined oil can be partial substitution for fossil fuel. For the purpose of assessing the environmental performance of this industrial symbiosis| life cycle assessment (LCA) was used and different scenarios were set up in this study to evaluate the Global warming Potential (GWP)| Acidification Potential (AP)| Eutrophication Potential (EP)| Human toxicity air (HTA) and Total Environmental Impact Potential (TEIP) of the system. Results indicate that when the substitute ratio of coal by sludge is 14%| the proposed industrial symbiosis has the least environmental impact. Compared with the current situation (sludge is landfilled)| co-combustion of dried sludge and re-refined oil with coal at optimal scale will release less CO(2)| CH(4)| NO.. N(2)O and CO| but more SO(2)| H(2)S| NH(3)| HCl| polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)| non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and heavy metals. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12331,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of Australian sugarcane products with a focus on cane processing,Purpose This work generates attributional life cycle assessment (LCA) results for products produced from Australian sugarcane-raw sugar| molasses| electricity (from bagasse combustion)| and ethanol (from molasses). It focuses on cane processing in sugar mills and is a companion to the work presented in (Renouf et al. 2010)| where the focus is on cane growing. This work also examines the preferred approach for assigning impacts to the multiple products from cane processing| and the influence that variability in cane growing has on the results. Method Initially| global warming potentials were generated for a range of cane processing models| using economic allocation (EA)| mass allocation (MA)| and system expansion (SE). A preferred approach was identified and applied to generate results for a wider set of impact categories based on the Impact 2002+ method. Uncertainty in the results due to cane-growing variability was assessed using Monte Carlo analysis and compared with the results for substitute products to determine the significance of the variability. Results While the generation of results using SE was appealing for assessing the determining product (raw sugar)| it was found to be less valid for the co-products (molasses| electricity| and ethanol). Results could be generated more consistently across all products using allocation. MA was found to be best suited to sugarcane products| whereas EA posed some problems. The uncertainty due to variability in sugarcane growing was found to be significantly higher than that of substitute products. Conclusions and recommendations LCA results for sugarcane products are influenced by (1) the nature of cane processing system| (2) variability in sugarcane growing| and (3) the approach taken for assigning impacts to the multiple products from sugarcane processing. The first two factors imply that results should be specific to the cane-growing region and the cane processing used to produce them. In relation to the latter issue| for generating attributional LCA results that are consistent across all sugarcane products| the recommended approach is to use mass allocation (with energy allocation for bagasse combustion and cogeneration). 12274,2011,3,3,Life cycle assessment of base-load heat sources for district heating system options,There has been an increased interest in utilizing renewable energy sources in district heating systems. District heating systems are centralized systems that provide heat for residential and commercial buildings in a community. While various renewable and conventional energy sources can be used in such systems| many stakeholders are interested in choosing the feasible option with the least environmental impacts. This paper evaluates and compares environmental burdens of alternative energy source options for the base-load of a district heating center in Vancouver| British Columbia (BC) using the life cycle assessment method. The considered energy sources include natural gas| wood pellet| sewer heat| and ground heat. The life cycle stages considered in the LCA model cover all stages from fuel production| fuel transmission/transportation| construction| operation| and finally demolition of the district heating system. The impact categories were analyzed based on the IMPACT 2002+ method. On a life-cycle basis| the global warming effect of renewable energy options were at least 200 kgeqCO2 less than that of the natural gas option per MWh of heat produced by the base-load system. It was concluded that less than 25% of the upstream global warming impact associated with the wood pellet energy source option was due to transportation activities and about 50% of that was resulted from wood pellet production processes. In comparison with other energy options| the wood pellets option has higher impacts on respiratory of inorganics| terrestrial ecotoxicity| acidification| and nutrification categories. Among renewable options| the global warming impact of heat pump options in the studied case in Vancouver| BC| were lower than the wood pellet option due to BC's low carbon electricity generation profile. Ozone layer depletion and mineral extraction were the highest for the heat pump options due to extensive construction required for these options. Natural gas utilization as the primary heat source for district heat production implies environmental complications beyond just the global warming impacts. Diffusing renewable energy sources for generating the base-load district heat would reduce human toxicity| ecosystem quality degradation| global warming| and resource depletion compared to the case of natural gas. Reducing fossil fuel dependency in various stages of wood pellet production can remarkably reduce the upstream global warming impact of using wood pellets for district heat generation. 12642,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of biogas digestate processing technologies,Driven by a high increase of large scale biogas plants based on bio waste| agricultural by-products and waste from food industry| there is a rapid structural development of the agricultural holdings in Germany. Particularly in regions with intensive livestock husbandry| this leads to an overprovision of nutrients. New technologies have been introduced during the last years to treat biogas digestate for optimal transport and application conditions. An environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was carried out in order to compare the environmental impacts and the energy efficiency of seven treatment options of biogas digestate. The treatment options include one conventional digestate management option (storage and application of untreated manure on agricultural land)| one stabilization process (composting)| three mechanical drying options (belt dryer| drum dryer and solar dryer)| one option using thermal vaporization (concentration) and finally one physical-chemical treatment (combination of separation| ultra-filtration| reverse osmosis and ionic exchanger). Primary energy demand (PED)| global warming potential (GWP) and acidification potential (AP) were analysed and presented per kg of digestate on the input side of the system as functional unit (fu). Based on the default parameter setting| four scenarios have been defined to analyse the influence of different feedstock| different kinds of energy supply| different emission reductions techniques and different logistic chains on the LCA results. In the overall comparison| solar drying| composting and physical-chemical treatment were identified to be the most suitable options to reduce the use of resources and environmental impacts compared to the conventional digestate management. Belt drying turned out to be the handling process with the highest PED demand| GWP and AP among the compared options. Total PED varies from -0.09 MJ/fu (i.e. savings) in the composting option up to 1.3 MJ/fu in the belt drying option. The GWP was in a range between 0.06 CO(2) eq./fu for solar drying to 0.1 kg CO(2) eq./fu for belt drying. The amount of AP ranged from 2.7 kg SO(2) g eq./fu in composting to 7.1 g SO(2) eq./fu in belt drying. The results indicate that the environmental impact depends largely on nitrogen related emissions from digestate treatment| storage and field application. Another important aspect is the amount and kind of fuel used for heat supply (biogas| natural gas) and the procedure chosen for the allocation among heat and power. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11833,2011,3,3,Life cycle assessment of biogas infrastructure options on a regional scale,A life cycle assessment has been completed of potential biogas infrastructures on a regional scale. Centralised and distributed infrastructures were considered along with biogas end uses of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and injection to the gas grid for either transport fuel or domestic heating end uses. Damage orientated (endpoint) life cycle impact assessment method identified that CHP with 80% heat utilisation had the least environmental impact| followed by transport fuel use. Utilisation for domestic heating purposes via the gas grid was found to perform less well. A 32% difference in transportation requirement between the centralised and distributed infrastructures was found to have a relatively small effect on the overall environmental impact. Global warming impacts were significantly affected by changes in methane emissions at upgrading stage| highlighting the importance of minimising operational losses. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12798,2011,3,4,Life Cycle Assessment of Biomass-based Combined Heat and Power Plants,Norway| like many countries| has realized the need to extensively plan its renewable energy future sooner rather than later. Combined heat and power (CHP) through gasification of forest residues is one technology that is expected to aid Norway in achieving a desired doubling of bioenergy production by 2020. To assess the environmental impacts to determine the most suitable CHP size| we performed a unit process-based attributional life cycle assessment (LCA)| in which we compared three scales of CHP over ten environmental impact categoriesmicro (0.1 megawatts electricity [MWe])| small (1 MWe)| and medium (50 MWe) scale. The functional units used were 1 megajoule (MJ) of electricity and 1 MJ of district heating delivered to the end user (two functional units)| and therefore| the environmental impacts from distribution of electricity and hot water to the consumer were also considered. This study focuses on a regional perspective situated in middle-Norway's Nord- and Sor-Trondelag counties. Overall| the unit-based environmental impacts between the scales of CHP were quite mixed and within the same magnitude. The results indicated that energy distribution from CHP plant to end user creates from less than 1% to nearly 90% of the total system impacts| depending on impact category and energy product. Also| an optimal small-scale CHP plant may be the best environmental option. The CHP systems had a global warming potential ranging from 2.4 to 2.8 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule of thermal (g CO2-eq/MJth) district heating and from 8.8 to 10.5 grams carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule of electricity (g CO2-eq/MJel) to the end user. 11713,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of Brazilian sugarcane products: GHG emissions and energy use,Sugarcane is currently the main renewable energy source in Brazil. Due to the importance of the cane industry and its contribution to a wide range of biobased energy and other products| LCA studies regarding cane-derived products are needed to assess their environmental benefits. The main objective of this work was the assessment of life cycle energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to cane sugar and ethanol| considering bagasse and electricity surpluses as coproducts. We performed an overall balance for the Brazilian Center-South Region| adopting different methods to evaluate sugar and ethanol production separately. The GREET 1.8c.0 model was used for the 'well-to-wheels' calculations but adapted to the comprehensive set of Brazilian parameters that best represent the Center-South Region. For the reference case| fossil energy use and GHG emissions related to sugar production were evaluated as 721 kJ/kg and 234 g CO(2)eq/kg| respectively. For the ethanol life cycle| these values were 80 kJ/MJ and 21.3 g CO(2)eq/MJ. Special attention was paid to the variation of some parameters among producing units based on data collected by industry. The consequent uncertainties in ethanol life cycle emissions were assessed through a Monte Carlo analysis based on assigned distribution of probability curves for eleven selected parameters and informed by partial statistical data available from industry for distribution generation. Projections were also made for 2020 scenario parameters based on the best in current class technologies and technological improvements deemed commercially possible today. Published in 2011 by John Wiley & Sons| Ltd 11599,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of ceramic tiles. Environmental and statistical analysis,The aim of this paper is to conduct a life cycle assessment study of ceramic tiles (single-fired glazed stoneware) in order to identify the stages that produce the greatest impact on the environment and the materials and/or processes that make the largest contribution to that impact. The life cycle is considered to be made up of seven stages: (1) mining the clay| (2) atomising the clay| (3) production of frits and glazes| (4) production of ceramic tiles| (5) distribution| (6) installation and usage| and| on ending their useful life (7) treatment as construction and demolition waste. A specific life cycle inventory was developed taking 1 m(2) of ceramic tile over a period of 20 years as the functional unit and using annual data gathered directly from 35 Spanish enterprises involved in the different stages of the life cycle of ceramic tiles. This inventory was then used to obtain environmental indicators (global warming| ozone layer depletion| acidification| eutrophication| photochemical oxidation and human toxicity) for each enterprise and each stage of the life cycle under study. Environmental data were submitted to a statistical analysis. This analysis made it possible to model the distribution of environmental behaviour of the life cycle of ceramic tiles considering the different influences from the different companies that were consulted for each stage in the life cycle. The statistical study allowed also obtaining confidence intervals for the mean and standard deviation of the environmental results obtained for each impact category. The stage of the life cycle with the greatest environmental impact for all the impact categories is the manufacture of the tile| followed by the process of atomising the clay and the distribution of the product. There is a direct correlation between these findings and the high level of energy consumption (mainly natural gas and fuel) in these stages. Moreover| the statistical analysis provided 95% level of confidence intervals for the mean and the standard deviation very accurate which shows that using the mean inventory values from all the enterprises that were consulted within the same stage of the life cycle is a suitable method of working. Future users of the inventory may use the probability distributions obtained for calculating percentiles or other measures to assess their data. 11815,2011,3,3,Life Cycle Assessment of Chinese Shrimp Farming Systems Targeted for Export and Domestic Sales,We conducted surveys of six hatcheries and 18 farms for data inputs to complete a cradle-to-farm-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the environmental performance for intensive (for export markets in Chicago) and semi-intensive (for domestic markets in Shanghai) shrimp farming systems in Hainan Province| China. The relative contribution to overall environmental performance of processing and distribution to final markets were also evaluated from a cradle-to-destination-port perspective. Environmental impact categories included global warming| acidification| eutrophication| cumulative energy use| and biotic resource use. Our results indicated that intensive farming had significantly higher environmental impacts per unit production than semi-intensive farming in all impact categories. The grow-out stage contributed between 96.4% and 99.6% of the cradle-to-farm-gate impacts. These impacts were mainly caused by feed production| electricity use| and farm-level effluents. By averaging over intensive (15%) and semi-intensive (85%) farming systems| 1 metric ton (t) live-weight of shrimp production in China required 38.3 +/- 4.3 GJ of energy| as well as' 40.14 +/- 1.7 t of net primary productivity| and generated 23.1 +/- 2.6 kg of SO(2) equiv| 36|9 4.3 kg of PO(4) equiv| and 3.1 +/- 0|4 t of CO(2) equiv. Processing made a higher contribution to cradle-to-destination-port impacts than distribution of processed shrimp from farm gate to final markets in both supply chains. In 2008| the estimated total electricity consumption| energy consumption| and greenhouse gas emissions from Chinese white-leg shrimp production would be 1.1 billion kW.h| 49 million GJ| and 4 million metric tons| respectively. Improvements suggested for Chinese shrimp aquaculture include changes in feed composition| farm management| electricity-generating sources| and effluent treatment before discharge. Our results can be used to optimize market-oriented shrimp supply chains and promote more sustainable shrimp production and consumption. 11763,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of coated white board: a case study in China,Life cycle assessment was carried out using IMPACT2002+ to estimate the environmental impact of coated white board production| which is common in China. Normalized results showed that the potential impacts of respiratory inorganics| terrestrial ecotoxicity| global warming| and non-renewable energy had a dominant contributions to overall environmental impact. Specifically| emissions from chemical and energy production processes exhibited higher potential impact (more than 80% of the total contribution) on the environment than that of emissions generated from transport| landfill| wastewater treatment| and paper plants infrastructure. Energy recovery from black liquor and energy generation based on natural gas are key factors in reducing overall environmental potential impact. The current paper presents improvements on the environmental performance of a coated white board production site in China. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11895,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of food production in integrated agriculture-aquaculture systems of the Mekong Delta,This study evaluated the environmental impact of integrated agriculture-aquaculture (IAA) farming systems in the Mekong Delta that differ in types of aquaculture intensification. Daily inputs and outputs for rice| fruits| vegetables| pigs| poultry| and fish were collected on 11 farms over a period of two years: three farms in a rice-based and high input fish system (R-HF); four in a rice-based and medium input fish system (R-MF); and four in an orchard-based and low input fish system (O-LF). For each farm| a detailed cradle-to-farm-gate life cycle assessment was performed. Kcal as functional unit (FU) enabled a comparison of the integral environmental impact among farming systems| and identification of major processes influencing the outcome of an impact category. kg product as RI enabled evaluation of impacts for the individual products of IAA farms. The environmental impact was also quantified for each farm as a whole to identify which farm components explained the majority of the environmental impact in absolute terms. Land use per kcal farm product did not differ among the three farming systems. Global warming potential (GWP)| energy use and eutrophication potential (EP) per kcal farm product tended to be higher| whereas acidification potential (AP) was higher| in O-LF than in R-HF and R-MF| mainly due to the low calorie content of the two main products| fruits and vegetables| and the small fish yield in O-LF. One kg of fish produced in O-LF farms showed 28% higher land use| 35% higher energy use| 54% higher GWP| 45% higher EP| and 52% higher AP than the average kg of fish produced in the other two systems| due to the pond management system and small fish yield in O-LF. For each impact category| the impact per kg pig and poultry protein were on average 1.6-1.8 times higher than the impacts per kg fish protein. Overall| rice and pigs were the main contributors to the environmental impact of food production in the MD. Excessive and inefficient use of fertilizers| and CH(4) emission from the paddy fields contributed most to the environmental impact in rice production| whereas the use of external feeds contributed most to the impact in pigs. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
12572,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of hydrotreated vegetable oil from rape| oil palm and Jatropha,A life cycle assessment of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) biofuel was performed. The study was commissioned by Volvo Technology Corporation and Volvo Penta Corporation as part of an effort to gain a better understanding of the environmental impact of potential future biobased liquid fuels for cars and trucks. The life cycle includes production of vegetable oil from rape| oil palm or Jatropha| transport of the oil to the production site| production of the HVO from the oil| and combustion of the HVO. The functional unit of the study is 1 kWh energy out from the engine of a heavy-duty truck and the environmental impact categories that are considered are global warming potential (GWP)| acidification potential (AP)| eutrophication potential (EP) and embedded fossil production energy. System expansion was used to take into account byproducts from activities in the systems; this choice was made partly to make this study comparable to results reported by other studies. The results show that HVO produced from palm oil combined with energy production from biogas produced from the palm oil mill effluent has the lowest environmental impact of the feedstocks investigated in this report. HVO has a significantly lower life cycle GWP than conventional diesel oil for all feedstocks investigated| and a GWP that is comparable to results for e.g. rape methyl ester reported in the literature. The results show that emissions from soil caused by microbial activities and leakage are the largest contributors to most environmental impact categories| which is supported also by other studies. Nitrous oxide emissions from soil account for more than half of the GWP of HVO. Nitrogen oxides and ammonia emissions from soil cause almost all of the life cycle EP of HVO and contribute significantly to the AP as well. The embedded fossil production energy was shown to be similar to results for e.g. rape methyl ester from other studies. A sensitivity analysis shows that variations in crop yield and in nitrous oxide emissions from microbial activities in soil can cause significant changes to the results. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11598,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of intensive striped catfish farming in the Mekong Delta for screening hotspots as input to environmental policy and research agenda,Intensive striped catfish production in the Mekong Delta has| in recent years| raised environmental concerns. We conducted a stakeholder-based screening life cycle assessment (LCA) of the intensive farming system to determine the critical environmental impact and their causative processes in producing striped catfish. Additional to the LCA| we assessed water use and flooding hazards in the Mekong Delta. The goal and scope of the LCA were defined in a stakeholder workshop. It was decided there to include all processes up to the exit-gate of the fish farm in the inventory and to focus life cycle impact assessment on global warming| acidification| eutrophication| human toxicity| and marine (MAET) and freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity (FWET). A survey was used to collect primary inventory data from 28 farms on fish grow-out| and from seven feed mills. Hatching and nursing of striped catfish fingerlings were not included in the assessment due to limited data availability and low estimated impact. Average feed composition for all farms had to be applied due to limitation of budget and data availability. Feed ingredient production| transport and milling dominated most of the impact categories in the LCA except for eutrophication and FWET. Most feed ingredients were produced outside Vietnam| and the impact of transport was important. Because of the screening character of this LCA| generic instead of specific inventory data were used for modelling feed ingredient production. However| the use of generic data is unlikely to have affected the main findings| given the dominance of feed production in all impact categories. Of the feed ingredients| rice bran contributed the most to global warming and acidification| while wheat bran contributed the most to eutrophication. The dominance of both was mainly due to the amounts used. Fishmeal production| transport and energy contributed the most to MAET. The biggest impacts of grow-out farming in Vietnam are on eutrophication and FWET. Water nutrient discharge from grow-out farming was high but negligible compared with the natural nutrient content of the Mekong River. The discharge from all grow-out farms together hardly modified river water quality compared with that before sector expansion. Feed production| i.e. ingredient production and transport and milling| remains the main contributor to most impact categories. It contributes indirectly to eutrophication and FWET through the pond effluents. The environmental impact of Pangasius grow-out farming can be reduced by effectively managing sludge and by using feeds with lower feed conversion ratio and lower content of fishery products in the feed. To consider farm variability| a next LCA of aquaculture should enlist closer collaboration from several feed-milling companies and sample farms using their feeds. Future LCAs should also preferably collect specific instead of generic inventory data for feed ingredient production| and include biodiversity and primary production as impact categories. 11857,2011,3,4,Life Cycle Assessment of Internal Recycling Options of Steel Slag in Chinese Iron and Steel Industry,The internal recycling process of BOF slag which is one of the huge solid wastes from iron and steel industry was emphasized. Based on the four scenarios of different internal recycling strategies for BOF slag| life cycle assessment (LCA) as a valuable tool for industrial solid waste management was applied to analyze the contribution to reducing environmental impacts and resources burdens for each scenario. The global warming potential (GWP) results of the four scenarios show that the scenario which performs best in carbon reduction cuts off 14. 2% of GWP impacts of the worst scenario. The results of this study show that the optimized internal recycling process of BOF slag can improve the environmental performance of crude steel. It is important to assess and choose an appropriate strategy to recycle BOF slag from LCA perspective to reduce the environmental impacts and resource burdens as much as possible. 11762,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of milk produced in two smallholder dairy systems in the highlands and the coast of Peru,Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was applied to two smallholder milk production systems in Peru in order to evaluate the environmental burden of milk produced in each. An Andean highland milk production system where livestock feeding is restricted to permanent pastures supplemented with on farm grown ryegrass-clover was opposed to a coastal system with dairy cows fed a diet consisting of fodder maize and purchased concentrate. Milk production levels (kg/cow day) differed considerably with 2.57 for the highland and 19.54 for the coastal system. A Life Cycle Inventory was calculated for the functional unit of 1 kg energy corrected milk (ECM) and the environmental impacts global warming| acidification and eutrophication were estimated for 1 kg ECM| 1 ha and 1 animal| considering the multi-functionality of the system. The highland system was characterized by a high land use (23.1 m(2)a/kg ECM vs. 1.71 m(2)a/kg ECM at the coast). Irrigation water and energy were on the other hand used to a much higher amount at the coast (7291 l/kg ECM and 8791 MJ/kg ECM| respectively) than in the highlands (848 l/kg ECM and 0.20 MJ/kg ECM). Global warming potential| acidification and eutrophication were higher for 1 kg ECM produced in the highlands than at the coast by 10.6 kg CO(2) equivalents| 6.58 g sulfur dioxide equivalents and 10.63 g phosphate equivalents| respectively. Nevertheless| 5220 kg CO(2) equivalents more were emitted per animal at the coast than in the highlands. Also acidification and eutrophication were estimated to be on average 6 and 4 times higher at the coast compared to the highlands when expressed for the functional units of 1 ha and 1 animal. Results: Whereas livestock is mainly responsible for impacts on the environment in the highlands| at the coast both livestock related emissions and forage cultivation play an important role. Furthermore CO(2) releases from soybean cultivations heavily contribute to total emissions. Sensitivity analysis indicates that for dairy systems relying on crop by-products as feed the choice of the allocation method is a crucial point in a LCA study. Based on the results of this study| strategies in order to reduce the environmental burden of milk production should focus on an increase of production levels and a reduction of methane emissions from enteric fermentation in the highlands and a modification of the concentrate components replacing soya as the protein source at the coast. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12103,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of mineral oil-based and vegetable oil-based hydraulic fluids including comparison of biocatalytic and conventional production methods,Lubricants are used in numerous applications in our society| for instance| as hydraulic fluids. When used in forestry| 60-80% of these hydraulic fluids are released into the environment. This is one of the reasons for the growing interest for developing and utilising hydraulic fluids with good environmental performance. Another driving force in the development of hydraulic fluids is to replace fossil products with renewable ones. The aim of this paper is to investigate the environmental impact of two types of hydraulic fluids| one based on mineral oil and one on vegetable oil. The difference in environmental impact of using chemical or biocatalytic production methods is also assessed. This life cycle assessment is from cradle-to-gate| including waste treatment. A complementary| laboratory| biodegradability test was also performed. The functional unit is 1 l of base fluid for hydraulic fluids| and mass allocation is applied. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of the energy used and of the allocation method. The impact categories studied are primary energy consumption| global warming potential (GWP)| eutrophication potential (EP)| acidification potential (AP)| photooxidant creation potential (POCP) and biodegradability. The contribution to GWP and primary energy consumption was higher for the mineral oil-based hydraulic fluid than the vegetable oil-based hydraulic fluids. The contributions to EP and AP were higher for the vegetable oil-based hydraulic fluid than the mineral oil-based one. The vegetable oil-based hydraulic fluid had better biodegradability than the one based on mineral oil. The impact of production method was minor| thus the biocatalytic method gives no significant advantage over chemical methods concerning energy and environmental performance. For the environmental impact categories GWP| POCP and primary energy consumption| hydraulic fluids based on rapeseed oil make a lower contribution than a mineral oil-based hydraulic fluid. For EP and AP| the contributions of TMP oleate are higher than the contribution of mineral oil-based hydraulic fluid. The difference between the chemically catalysed method and the ezymatically catalysed method is negligible because the major environmental impact is due to the production of the raw materials. The vegetable oil-based hydraulic fluid| TMP oleate| was more biodegradable than the mineral oil-based hydraulic fluid. 11597,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of mini-hydropower plants in Thailand,The conversion of electricity in Thailand is mainly based on fossil fuels that account more than 90% of electricity generated in the country. The use of fossil fuels has large environmental impacts| and being largely imported| also affects the energy security of the country. From the oil shock situation in 1970s| there has been interest in renewable energy in Thailand resulting in the policy goal for the year 2020 to increase the portion of renewable energy to 20% of energy used in the country. Now| hydropower contributes a significant portion of the renewable energy in Thailand| and mini-hydropower (run-of-river type with capacity between 200 to 6000 kW) tends to be most attractive. This is particularly suitable for Thailand| and it is being applied at several locations. Thus| the overall life cycle assessment (LCA)| from cradle to gate| of mini-hydropower plants needs to be assessed for quantitative evaluation. There are five mini-hydropower plants in this study. The inputs and outputs of materials and energy used since before construction stage to demolition stage are inventoried and assessed via LCA using the CML 2001 baseline methodology for impact assessment. The impact categories considered in this study are global warming (GWP)| abiotic depletion (ADP)| acidification (ACP)| fresh water aquatic toxicity (FWAP)| human toxicology (HTP)| photochemical oxidation (POP)| and fossil fuel resource depletion (FRP) potential. The functional unit used is 1 MWh electricity produced from mini-hydropower plants in Thailand| and the life span of the power plants is 50 years. For each of the environmental impact categories considered| the impact potentials were evaluated for each of the five mini-hydropower plants; 76.39-151.55 g Sb eq/MWh for ADP| 57.28-116.94 g SO(2) eq/MWh for ACP| 11.01-23.01 kg CO(2) eq/MWh for GWP| 23.01-52.05 kg 1|4-DB eq/MWh for HTP| 4.58-9.08 kg 1|4-DB eq/MWh for FWAP| 2.93-7.47 g C(2)H(4) eq/MWh for POP| and 35.11-79.13 g Sb eq/MWh for FRP. The main contributors to the impacts are the huge amount of materials used for construction of the mini-hydropower plant; sand| gravel| cement| reinforcement steel| pressure pipeline steel| iron| copper| and electric equipment and energy used for construction activities| construction equipment| and transportation. The remoteness of the mini-hydropower plants and the requirement of importing electric equipment technology from overseas are significant contributors to the environmental impacts. The environmental "hot spots" are construction and transportation stage because of remoteness| huge amount of materials and energy use in construction period| and the use of imported equipment. Mini-hydropower plants do not only generate power| but being in hilly regions that are often quite scenic| can serve as public knowledge centers for renewable energy. Thus| the multiple purposes of mini-hydropower power plants should be utilized in the future. The proper management of environmental and social issues throughout the project cycle is essential taking into consideration the hydrological cycle and seasonal variations. Fresh water is a necessary resource for many living things and hence necessary to be managed wisely. These study results would serve as basic information for decision makers| environmentalists| and all stakeholders and provide a general picture of environmental impacts from mini-hydropower plants in Thailand. 12076,2011,3,3,Life cycle assessment of natural gas combined cycle power plant with post-combustion carbon capture| transport and storage,Hybrid life cycle assessment has been used to assess the environmental impacts of natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) electricity generation with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). The CCS chain modeled in this study consists of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) capture from flue gas using monoethanolamine (MEA)| pipeline transport and storage in a saline aquifer. Results show that the sequestration of 90% CO(2) from the flue gas results in avoiding 70% of CO(2) emissions to the atmosphere per kWh and reduces global warming potential (GWP) by 64%. Calculation of other environmental impacts shows the trade-offs: an increase of 43% in acidification| 35% in eutrophication| and 120-170% in various toxicity impacts. Given the assumptions employed in this analysis| emissions of MEA and formaldehyde during capture process and generation of reclaimer wastes contributes to various toxicity potentials and cause many-fold increase in the on-site direct freshwater ecotoxicity and terrestrial ecotoxicity impacts. NO(x) from fuel combustion is still the dominant contributor to most direct impacts| other than toxicity potentials and GWP. It is found that the direct emission of MEA contribute little to human toxicity (HT <1%)| however it makes 16% of terrestrial ecotoxicity impact. Hazardous reclaimer waste causes significant freshwater and marine ecotoxicity impacts. Most increases in impact are due to increased fuel requirements or increased investments and operating inputs. The reductions in GWP range from 58% to 68% for the worst-case to best-case CCS system. Acidification| eutrophication and toxicity potentials show an even large range of variation in the sensitivity analysis. Decreases in energy use and solvent degradation will significantly reduce the impact in all categories. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11563,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of small-scale high-input Jatropha biodiesel production in India,In the current scenario of depleting energy resources| increasing food insecurity and global warming| Jatropha has emerged as a promising energy crop for India. The aim of this study is to examine the life cycle energy balance for Jatropha biodiesel production and greenhouse gas emissions from post-energy use and end combustion of biodiesel| over a period of 5 years. It's a case specific study for a small scale| high input Jatropha biodiesel system. Most of the existing studies have considered low input Jatropha biodiesel system and have used NEB (Net energy balance i.e. difference of energy output and energy input) and NER (Net energy ratio i.e. ratio of energy output to energy input) as indicators for estimating the viability of the systems. Although| many of them have shown these indicators to be positive| yet the values are very less. The results of this study| when compared with two previous studies of Jatropha| show that the values for these indicators can be increased to a much greater extent| if we use a high input Jatropha biodiesel system. Further| when compared to a study done on palm oil and Coconut oil| it was found even if the NEB and NER of biodiesel from Jatropha were lesser in comparison to those of Palm oil and Coconut oil| yet| when energy content of the co-products were also considered| Jatropha had the highest value for both the indicators in comparison to the rest two. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11878,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of SNG from wood for heating| electricity| and transportation,The conversion of wood to synthetic natural gas (SNG) via gasification and catalytic methanation is a renewable close to commercialization technology that could substitute fossil fuels and alleviate global warming. In order to assure that it is beneficial from the environmental perspective| a cradle to grave life cycle assessment (LCA) of SNG from a first-of-its-kind polygeneration unit for heating| electricity generation| and transportation was conducted. These SNG systems were compared to fossil and conventional wood reference systems and environmental benefits from their substitution evaluated. Finally| we conduct sensitivity analysis for expected technological improvements and factors that could decrease environmental performance. It is shown that substituting fossil technologies with SNG systems is environmentally beneficial with regard to global warming and for selected technologies also with regard to aggregated environmental impacts. On the condition that process heat is used efficiently| technological improvements such as increased efficiency and denitrification could further increase this advantage. On the other hand| lower GHG emissions and aggregated impacts are partly compensated by other environmental effects| e.g. eutrophication| ecotoxicity| and respiratory disease caused by inorganics. Since more efficient alternatives exist for the generation of heat and electricity from wood| it is argued that SNG is best used for transportation. In the light of a growing demand for renewable transportation fuels and commercial scale technological development being only in its initial stage| the production of SNG from wood seems to be a promising technology for the near future. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12558,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of solar photo-Fenton and solar photoelectro-Fenton processes used for the degradation of aqueous alpha-methylphenylglycine,A comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of solar photo-Fenton and solar photoelectro-Fenton| two solar-driven advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) devoted to the removal of non-biodegradable pollutants in water| is performed. The study is based on the removal| at laboratory scale| of the amino acid alpha-methylphenylglycine| a good example of soluble and non-biodegradable target pollutant. The system under study includes chemicals| electricity| transport of all raw materials to the plant site| and the generation of emissions| but it does not take into account the impact of the infrastructure needed to build a hypothetical solar plant. Nine environmental impact categories are included in the LCA: global warming potential| ozone depletion potential| aquatic eutrophication potential| acidification potential| human toxicity potential| photochemical ozone formation potential| fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity potential| marine aquatic ecotoxicity potential| and terrestrial ecotoxicity potential and abiotic resource depletion potential. Although previous experimental results show that both AOPs are able to efficiently degrade the pollutant| the LCA indicates that solar-driven photo-Fenton is the most environmentally friendly alternative| mainly because the use of electricity in solar photoelectro-Fenton experiments involves high environmental impacts. 12265,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of Swiss farming systems: II. Extensive and intensive production,Extensive or low-input farming is considered a way of remedying many problems associated with intensive farming practices. But do extensive farming systems really result in a clear reduction in environmental impacts| especially if their lower productivity is taken into account? This question is studied for Swiss arable cropping and forage production systems in a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) study. Three long-term experiments (DOC experiment comparing bio-dynamic| bio-organic and conventional farming| the "Burgrain" experiment including integrated intensive| integrated extensive and organic systems and the "Oberacker" experiment with conventional ploughing and no-till soil cultivation| are considered in the LCA study. Furthermore| model systems for arable crops and forage production for feeding livestock are investigated by using the Swiss Agricultural Life Cycle Assessment method (SALCA). The analysis covers an overall extensification of cropping systems and forage production on the one hand and a partial extensification of fertiliser use| plant protection and soil cultivation on the other. The overall extensification of an intensively managed system reduced environmental impacts in general| both per area unit and per product unit. In arable cropping systems medium production intensity gave the best results for the environment| and the intensity should not fall below the environmental optimum in order to avoids deterioration of eco-efficiency. In grassland systems| on the contrary| a combination of both intensively and extensively managed plots was preferable to medium intensity practices on the whole area. The differences in yield| production intensity and environmental impact were much more pronounced in grassland than in arable cropping systems. Partial extensification of a farming system should be conceived in the context of the whole system in order to be successful. For example| the extensification solely of fertiliser use and soil cultivation resulted in a general improvement in the environmental performance of the farming system| whereas a reduction in plant protection intensity by banning certain pesticide categories reduced negative impacts on ecotoxicity and biodiversity only| while increasing other burdens such as global warming| ozone formation| eutrophication and acidification per product unit. The replacement of mineral fertilisers by farmyard manure as a special form of extensification reduced resource use and improved soil quality| while slightly increasing nutrient losses. These results show that a considerable environmental improvement potential exists in Swiss farming systems and that a detailed eco-efficiency analysis could help to target a further reduction in their environmental impacts. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11671,2011,3,4,Life cycle assessment of two palm oil production systems,In 2009 approx. 40 Mt of palm oil were produced globally. Growing demand for palm oil is driven by an increasing human population as well as subsidies for biodiesel and is likely to increase further in coming years. The production of 1 t crude palm oil requires 5 t of fresh fruit bunches (FFB). On average processing of 1 t FFB in palm oil mills generates 0.23 t empty fruit bunches (EFB) and 0.65 t palm oil mill effluents (POME) as residues. In this study it is assumed that land use change does not occur. In order to estimate the environmental impacts of palm oil production a worst and a best case scenario are assessed and compared in the present study using 1000 kg of FFB as functional unit. The production and treatment of one t FFB causes more than 460 kg CO(2eq) in the worst case scenario and 110 kg CO(2eq) in the best case scenario. The significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction is achieved by co-composting residues of the palm oil mill. Thus treating those residues appropriately is paramount for reducing environmental impacts particularly global warming potential (GWP) and eutrophication potential (EP). Another important contributor to the EP but also to the human toxicity potential (HTP) is the biomass powered combined heat and power (CHP) plant of palm oil mills. Frequently CHP plants of palm oil mills operate without flue gas cleaning. The CHP plant emits heavy metals and nitrogen oxides and these account for 93% of the HTP of the advanced palm oil production system| of which heavy metal emissions to air are responsible for 79%. The exact emission reduction potential from CHP plants could not be quantified due to existing data gaps| but it is apparent that cleaning the exhaust gas would reduce eutrophication| acidification and toxicity considerably. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11920,2011,3,4,Life cycle energy and GHG emissions of PET recycling: change-oriented effects,The demand of PET bottles has increased rapidly in the past decades. The purpose of this study is to understand the environmental impact of PET recycling system| in which used bottles are recycled into both fibre and bottles| and to compare the recycling system with single-use PET. Consequential LCA modelling was applied to understand four change-oriented effects for the recycling system. These include the effect of multiple-recycling trips| the effect of changing the share of recycled PET pellets used to make bottles or fibre| the effect of changing the reference system and the effect of introducing bio-based PET. The functional unit of the baseline case was determined as 350 kg of bottles and 650 kg of fibre based on the current market demand of PET. The system boundary is cradle to grave excluding the use phase. We applied the "system expansion" method to open-loop recycling. The analysis compares the baseline recycling system| where PET is recycled once| with the reference system| where PET is not recycled. The environmental impacts assessed are non-renewable energy use and global warming. The baseline recycling system reduces both impacts by 20% when compared to the reference system. Multiple-recycling trips can maximally reduce the impacts by 26% but the additional savings are negligible after three recycling trips. Bottle-to-fibre recycling offers more impact reduction than bottle-to-bottle recycling when more fibre is needed than bottles in a functional unit. The maximal impact reduction of 25% can be achieved when all recycled PET pellets are used to make fibre. If the functional unit is reversed| i.e. changed to 650 kg of bottles and 350 kg of fibre| 30% of the impact reduction can be achieved. Both impacts can be further reduced when the quantity of the recycled PET is maximised. The bio-based PET recycling system| offers at least 36% impact reduction| has the lowest impact among all systems studied. The sensitivity analyses show that the recycled PET content in a recycled bottle is not influential to the overall environmental performance. All PET recycling systems in this study show important impact reduction compared to the reference system. The impact savings are around 20-30% depends on the configurations of the recycling system. We conclude that the system's environmental impact can be optimised by maximising the amount of recycled PET in the system and by using bio-based polymers. 12056,2011,3,4,Life Cycle Environmental Assessment of Lithium-Ion and Nickel Metal Hydride Batteries for Plug-In Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles,This study presents the life cycle assessment (LCA) of three batteries for plug-in hybrid and full performance battery electric vehicles. A transparent life cycle inventory (LCI) was compiled in a component-wise manner for nickel metal hydride (NiMH)| nickel cobalt manganese lithium-ion (NCM)| and iron phosphate lithium-ion (LFP) batteries. The battery systems were investigated with a functional unit based on energy storage| and environmental impacts were analyzed using midpoint indicators. On a per-storage basis| the NiME technology was found to have the highest environmental impact| followed by NCM and then LFP| for all categories considered except ozone depletion potential. We found higher life cycle global warming emissions than have been previously reported. Detailed contribution and structural path analyses allowed for the identification of the different processes and value-chains most directly responsible for these emissions. This article contributes a public and detailed inventory| which can be easily be adapted to any powertrain| along with readily usable environmental performance assessments. 11822,2011,3,3,Life cycle greenhouse gas assessment of infrastructure construction for California's high-speed rail system,This study estimates of the life cycle greenhouse gas inventory for construction of high-speed rail infrastructure from San Francisco to Anaheim indicates it will result in 2.4 million metric tons of CO(2) with material production comprising 80% of emissions and transportation of construction materials| 16%. While tunneling and aerial structures account for only 15% of the route's length| they are responsible for 60% of emissions. Based on estimates of avoided emissions from operation of the system of just over one million metric tons of CO(2) per year| construction emissions would be recuperated in about two years and their global warming effect in about six after services begin. This range of recuperation times is relatively short given the long-life of the constructed infrastructure. Avoided emissions estimates are dependent on ridership and if low ridership lead to a 75% decrease in offset emissions| recuperation times may increase to more than 20 years. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11980,2011,3,3,Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions impacts of the adoption of the EU Directive on biofuels in Spain. Effect of the import of raw materials and land use changes,The objective of this paper is to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impacts of the use of different alternative biofuels in passenger vehicles in Spain in order to meet EU biofuel goals. Different crop production alternatives are analysed| including the possible import of some raw materials. Availability of land for national production of the raw materials is analysed and indirect land use changes and associated GHG emissions are quantified. There are important differences in GHG emissions of biofuels depending on the raw material used and whether this is domestically produced or imported. Ethanol production using imported cereals and FAME production using domestic rapeseed have the highest GHG emissions per kilometre driven. Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) production from sunflower has shown the lowest emissions. When taking into account the results of GHG emissions savings per hectare| these findings are somehow reversed. Production of ethanol and around 12% of FAME can be done domestically. The rest will need to be imported and will cause indirect land use change (ILUC). Therefore| ethanol production will not displace any land| whereas FAME production will displace some amounts of land. Calculated ILUC factors are 29%-34%. The additional GHG emissions due to these indirect land use changes are significant (67%-344% of life cycle GHG emissions). Standalone| the EU biofuel targets can have important benefits for Spain in terms of global warming emissions avoided. However| when considering the impact of land use change effects| these benefits are significantly reduced and can even be negative. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11963,2011,3,3,Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) of paper making process in Iran,Forests play an important role on carbon concentration| unchecked harvesting could cause increase in carbon concentration. In this study| the environmental impact caused by paper production at Pars Paper Factory| Iran| was evaluated using life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. The ISO 14040 series were used as references. The functional unit considered was producing one metric tonne of paper for one year. The Centre of Environmental Science| Leiden University| NL| 2000 (CML2 Baseline2000) method was chosen for this LCA study. Ten impact categories were identified as follow: Abiotic depletion| acidification| eutrophication| global warming| ozone layer depletion| human toxicity| fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity| marine aquatic ecotoxicity| terrestrial ecotoxicity and photochemical oxidation. From the results| using bagasse and electricity contributed the lowest impact value because both of these inputs used renewable sources. However| using heavy fuel oil (in this case mazut) gives the highest impact to global warming. Chlorine from bleaching sector contributes the impact for photochemical oxidation and ozone layer depletion. From the results obtained| the use of bagasse instead of wood in paper and pulp factory| has potential to reduce global warming impact. Hydroelectricity as the source of energy has less impact on the environment| while mazut may result in acidification| global warming and ozone layer depletion. 11830,2011,3,4,Life cycle impact assessment and interpretation of municipal solid waste management scenarios based on the midpoint and endpoint approaches,Purpose Few studies have examined differing interpretations of life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) results between midpoints and endpoints for the same systems. This paper focuses on the LCIA of municipal solid waste (MSW) systems by taking both the midpoint and endpoint approaches and uses LIME (Life Cycle Impact Assessment Method based on Endpoint Modeling| version 2006). With respect to global and site-dependent factors| environmental impact categories were divided into global| regional| and local scales. Results are shown as net emissions consisting of system emissions and avoided emissions. Materials and methods This study is divided into five segments. The first segment develops the LCIA framework and four MSW scenarios based on the current MSW composition and systems of Seoul| considering adaptable results from the hierarchy MSW systems. In addition| two systems are considered: main MSW systems and optional systems. Several "what if" scenarios are discussed| including various compositions and classifications of MSW. In the second segment| life cycle inventory (LCI) analysis is applied to define various inputs and outputs to and from MSW systems| including air (23 categories)| water (28 categories) and land (waste) emissions| resource consumption| land use| recovered material| compost| landfill gas| biogas| and heat energy. The third segment| taking the midpoint approach| investigates the nine environmental impacts of the system and avoided emissions. In the fourth segment| this study| taking the endpoint approach| evaluates the damages| dividing the four safeguard subjects affected by 11 environmental impact categories of the system and avoided emissions. In these third and fourth segments| LCIA is applied to analyze various end-of-life scenarios for same MSW materials. The final segment defines the differences from the results in accordance with the two previous life cycle assessment methodologies (the LCIA and interpretations with respect to midpoints and endpoints). Results and discussion With the respect to midpoints| Scenario 1 (S1) using 100% landfills (L) is the worst performer in terms of global (global warming and resource consumption)| regional (acidification| human toxicity| and ecotoxicity)| and local (waste: landfill volume) impacts. In terms of all impacts except global warming and waste| Scenario 2 (S2) using 64.2% L and 35.8% material recycling (MR) was found to be the most effective system. With respect to global-scale endpoints| S1 was the worst performer in terms of human health and social assets| whereas the other scenarios with MR were poor and bad performers in terms of biodiversity and primary production. With respect to regional- and local-scale endpoints| S1 was the worst performer in terms of human health| biodiversity| and primary production| whereas Scenario 4 (S4) using 4.2% L (only incombustibles)| 35.8% MR| 28.5% biological treatment (BT)| and 31.5% incineration (I) was the worst performer in terms of social assets. S4 was the best performer in terms of global-scale endpoints| whereas S2 and Scenario 3 (S3| using 35.7% L| 35.8% MR| and 28.5% BT) were the best on regional- and local-scale endpoints| respectively. With respect to the monetization analysis| which considered net emissions and integrated all endpoints| S3 was found to be "the most effective system|" indicating US $31.6 savings per ton-waste. Conclusions The results of this study illustrate the differences in the LCIA outcomes and interpretations with respect to the midpoint and endpoint approaches. In addition| it would be possible to interpret the effect of each indicator on safeguard subjects by integrating separate midpoints. The LCIA results of each endpoint for the scenarios were generally consistent with those of each midpoint. However| the results changed dramatically when the main contributor was a new category not included in midpoint categories. The key advantage with respect to grouping impact categories in the midpoint and endpoint approaches can be described as "the simplification of midpoints and the segmentation of endpoints." Recommendations and perspectives This research raises many questions that warrant further research. This method does not provide an uncertainty evaluation of input data at the inventory level; it addresses only the main contributor for each impact category to four endpoints. In addition| it would be beneficial to investigate the suitability of midpoints and endpoints for different stakeholders with a low or high level of environmental expertise by comparing previous studies. 12267,2011,3,2,Life-cycle assessment of a Solar Assist Plug-in Hybrid electric Tractor (SAPHT) in comparison with a conventional tractor,The most well-known reason of global warming is equivalent carbon dioxide (CO(2equ)) emitted from fossil fuels combustion in on-road and off-road vehicles. An appreciable portion of off-road pollution is allocated to farm implements. All cited studies have shown that renewable based electric vehicles (EVs) decrease petroleum consumption and consequently reduce criteria emissions under nearly all circumstances. Considering this| a Solar Assist Plug-in Hybrid electric Tractor (SAPHT) was designed| constructed and evaluated. This research evaluated the life cycle analysis of SAPHT project and compared the results with that of an internal combustion engine tractor (ICET). The life cycle was analyzed based on economical cost and environmental emissions. The externality of environmental pollutions was calculated to derive the life-cycle costs (LCC). The results showed that substituting each ICET by SAPHT can prevent 14 ton CO(2equ) emission to atmosphere annually. Also it prevents a high volume of other emissions such as CO| NO(x) and PM(10) entering the atmosphere. LCC assessment emphasizes on economical effectiveness of SAPHT rather than ICET at any diesel fuel price| therefore| increasing fuel unit prices leads to more effectiveness. It is concluded that levelized cost of energy (LCE) in (sic)/kW h for ICET is almost twice as that of SAPHT. Some of these advantages for SAPHT are offset in part by high purchase costs| heavy and massive batteries and low operating range. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12346,2011,3,4,Life-Cycle Assessment of NAND Flash Memory,Solid state drives (SSDs) show potential for environmental benefits over magnetic data storage due to their lower power consumption. To investigate this possibility| a life-cycle assessment (LCA) of NAND flash over five technology generations (150 nm| 120 nm| 90 nm| 65 nm| and 45 nm) is presented to quantify environmental impacts occurring in flash production and to view their trends over time. The inventory of resources and emissions in flash manufacturing| electricity generation| and some chemicals are based on process data| while that of fab infrastructure| water and the remaining chemicals are determined using economic input-output life-cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) or hybrid LCA. Over the past decade| impacts have fallen in all impact categories per gigabyte. Sensitivity analysis shows that the most influential factors over the life-cycle global warming potential (GWP) of flash memory are abatement of perfluorinated compounds and reduction of electricity-related emissions in manufacturing. A limited comparison between the life-cycle energy use and GWP of a 100GB laptop SSD and hard disk drive shows higher impacts for SSD in many use phase scenarios. This comparison is not indicative for all impact categories| however| and is not conclusive due to differences in boundary and functional unit. 12846,2011,3,3,Life-cycle evaluation of nitrogen-use in rice-farming systems: implications for economically-optimal nitrogen rates,Nitrogen (N) fertilizer plays an important role in agricultural systems in terms of food yield. However| N application rates (NARs) are often overestimated over the rice (Oryza sativa L.) growing season in the Taihu Lake region of China. This is largely because negative externalities are not entirely included when evaluating economically-optimal nitrogen rate (EONR)| such as only individual N losses are taken into account| or the inventory flows of reactive N have been limited solely to the farming process when evaluating environmental and economic effects of N fertilizer. This study integrates important material and energy flows resulting from N use into a rice agricultural inventory that constitutes the hub of the life-cycle assessment (LCA) method. An economic evaluation is used to determine an environmental and economic NAR for the Taihu Lake region. The analysis reveals that production and exploitation processes consume the largest proportion of resources| accounting for 77.2% and 22.3% of total resources| respectively. Regarding environmental impact| global warming creates the highest cost with contributions stemming mostly from fertilizer production and farming processes. Farming process incurs the biggest environmental impact of the three environmental impact categories considered| whereas transportation has a much smaller effect. When taking account of resource consumption and environmental cost| the marginal benefit of 1 kg rice would decrease from 2.4 to only 1.05 yuan. Accordingly| our current EONR has been evaluated at 187 kgNha(-1) for a single rice-growing season. This could enhance profitability| as well as reduce the N losses associated with rice growing. 12030,2011,3,4,Life-cycle greenhouse gas effects of introducing nano-crystalline materials in thin-film silicon solar cells,Solar PV is widely considered as a "green" technology. This paper| however| investigates the environmental impact of the production of solar modules made from thin-film silicon. We focus on novel applications of nano-crystalline Silicon materials (nc-Si) into current amorphous Silicon (a-Si) devices. Two nc-Si specific details concerning the environmental performance can be identified| when we want to compare to a-Si modules. First| in how far the extra (and thicker) silicon layer (s) affects upstream material requirements and energy use. Second| in how far depositing an extra silicon layer may increase emissions of greenhouse gases as additional emissions of Fluor gases (F-gases) are associated to this step. The much larger global warming potential of F-gases (17 200-22 800 times that of CO(2)) may lead to higher environmental burdens. To date| no study has yet analyzed the effect of F-gas usage on the environmental profile of thin-film silicon solar modules. We performed a life-cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the current environmental usefulness of pursuing this novel micromorph concept. The switch to the new micromorph technology will result in a 60-85% increase in greenhouse gas emissions (per generated kWh solar electricity) in case of NF(3) based clean processing| and 15-100% when SF(6) is used. We conclude that F-gas usage has a substantial environmental impact on both module types| in particular the micromorph one. Also| micromorph module efficiencies need to be improved from the current 8-9% (stabilized efficiency) toward 12-16% (stab. eff.) in order to compensate for the increased environmental impacts. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 3375,2011,2,4,Linking leaf transcript levels to whole plant analyses provides mechanistic insights to the impact of warming and altered water availability in an annual grass,Insights into the effects of climatic changes on primary metabolism in plants will enhance our understanding of ecosystem response to global climate change. In a greenhouse experiment| we studied the impact of total annual rainfall| intermittent wet and dry periods| and increased soil and air temperature (+3 degrees C) on an annual C(3) grass| Avena barbata| dominant in many California and Mediterranean grasslands. In order to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant response| analyses were carried out at scales ranging from the leaf (gene expression and enzyme activity) to the whole plant (biomass and phenology). Plant gene expression was more responsive to short-term changes in water availability (wet vs. dry periods) than to differences in cumulative rainfall. The effect of elevated temperature depended on total rainfall: flowering started earlier in high vs. low temperature under high rainfall| but not under low rainfall. Gene expression indicative of advanced development could be measured in leaves several weeks before flowering| linking gene expression to the phenological impact of altered climate. Given these responses of a dominant annual grass to manipulation of rain and temperature| we suggest that the impact of increased temperature on California annual grasslands will vary between wet and dry years. In wet years| biomass production will increase and flowering will occur earlier compared with dry years. Leaf transcript abundance analyses provided insights into the mechanisms of plant response to warming and altered precipitation patterns. 3344,2011,2,4,Little change in the distribution of rocky shore faunal communities on the Australian east coast after 50 years of rapid warming,Rocky shore faunal communities are tractable systems which are sensitive to climate change. Here| we resurveyed a historical census of rocky shore fauna conducted in the 19405 and 1950s to assess whether there were latitudinal changes in distribution and abundance consistent with global climate change along Australia's east coast. This region has undergone rapid warming| with increases in temperature of similar to 1.5 degrees C over the past 60 years. We also tested a historical hypothesis that a dramatic transition from tropical species to temperate species at 25 degrees S represents a biogeographical boundary caused by environmental transitions in wave action and dispersal barriers. Twenty-two rocky shores were sampled between 23 degrees S and 35 degrees S| covering 1500 km of the coastline. A total of 80 species of macro-fauna were identified. Historical comparison of the 30 most common species revealed little change in species distribution with warming ocean temperature. We conclude that the environmental transition driven by wave exposure| local currents and the presence of large sand islands| and not temperature| is the primary factor influencing biogeographic distributions along the subtropical east coast of Australia. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11952,2011,4,4,Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions: The importance of getting the numbers right,Estimates of global greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions attributable to livestock range from 8 to 51%. This variability creates confusion among policy makers and the public as it suggests that there is a lack of consensus among scientists with regard to the contribution of livestock to global GHG emissions. In reality| estimates of international scientific organizations such as the International Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are in close agreement| with variation mainly arising on how GHG emissions are allocated to land use and land use change. Other estimates involve major deviations from international protocols| such as estimated global warming potential of CH(4) or including respired CO(2) in GHG emissions. These approaches also fail to differentiate short-term CO(2) arising from oxidation of plant C by ruminants from CO(2) released from fixed fossil C through combustion. These deviances from internationally accepted protocols create confusion and direct attention from anthropomorphic practices which have the most important contribution to global GHG emissions. Global estimates of livestock GHG emissions are most reliable when they are generated by internationally recognized scientific panels with expertise across a range of disciplines| and with no preconceived bias to particular outcomes. This paper is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions| Guest Edited by TA. McAllister| Section Guest Editors; K.A. Beauchemin| X. Hao| S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology| P.H. Robinson. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11935,2011,2,4,Living on the edge? - On the thermobiology and activity pattern of the large herbivorous desert lizard Uromastyx aegyptia microlepis Blanford| 1875 at Mahazat as-Sayd Protected Area| Saudi Arabia,Field active body temperatures (T(b)) and operative temperatures (T(e)) were assessed in a population of Uromastyx aegyptia microlepis at Mahazat as-Sayd Protected Area| Saudi Arabia. In summer T(b) ranged between 23.2 and 47.2 degrees C| in winter between 23.0 and 451 degrees C and in spring between 25.5 and 45.9 degrees C. There is a significant difference between respective T(b) and T(e) distributions which suggests that U. a. microlepis is an active thermoregulator. Above ground activity is very variable between seasons| with the highest activity level in spring. In winter the animals showed an unimodal activity profile. In spring and summer the lizards exhibit bimodal activity profiles with afternoon activity being generally lower than morning activity levels. Species distribution models were calculated to estimate the future impact of global warming on this taxon. Estimates on the basis of temperature data suggest that the range size on the Arabian Peninsula might be stable but with a remarkable decrease of environmental suitability of up to 70-80%. Based on a synthesis of thermo-ecological data and species distribution models we consider climate warming as a potential threat to the survival of the species. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12106,2011,2,4,Local indications of climate changes in Turkey: Bursa as a case example,This study aims to put out on what ratio Bursa province| one of the important heavy industry regions of Turkey| has been affected climatic process called "Global Warming" or "Climate Change". For this intend climatic measurement results from Bursa center| top of Uludag Mount| YeniAYehir and Keles meteorological stations were used. These measurements were taken as minimum temperature at night-time| maximum temperature at day-time| and mean temperature| mean pressure| insolation intensity| insolation duration| mean wind speed| minimum temperature above soil| soil temperatures at depths of 5| 10| and 20 cm rainfall. Overall| our statistical results showed that there was a considerable warming at statistically 1% and 5% levels in summer months| particularly in July Almost all performed measurements confirm this result. According to climatic data for thirty years (1975-2005)| in the last twelve years contrary to previous 18 years| mean temperature values were higher than long-term mean value nine times (years) repetitively. Temperatures did not deviated higher than 0.5A degrees C in six of these. At the temperatures below mean| The maximum deviation was -0.4A degrees C. 12673,2011,3,4,LOCAL PERCEPTION OF INDOOR AIR POLLUTION WITH USE OF BIOFUEL IN RURAL COMMUNITIES OF UCHALLI WETLANDS COMPLEX| SALT RANGE PAKISTAN,More than 2.4 billion people around the world in the rural community depend on biomass fuel (wood| charcoal animal dung| and crop residue). Incomplete combustion of this fuel has led to increased amounts of indoor pollution and raise in global warming; this has further led to the increase in the incidence of diseases. Therefore| interventions to reduce biomass fuel related emission by alternative fuels and improved combustion efficiency can improve health| add to socioeconomic development. The area selected for sampling was the Uchalli Wetlands Complex which in the Northwest of Khushab district in Pakistan which houses three saline lakes surrounded by forest and villages. A questionnaire was designed with questions regarding the household fuel use and techniques to improve livelihood and to create awareness and locals from the age of 19-95 were interviewed with a majority of males| houses in the area were mainly of stone blocks and majority males in the area worked in the city. Combined family system was prevalent in the area (80%) with about 42% of the population having no formal education. A wide variety of stoves were observed in the area with wives having a major decision (69%) in fuel choice which mainly depended on the cheapness and availability of the fuel. The cooking being mostly done (79.8%) outside in summers and indoors in winters. Majority of the respondents (94.7%) were aware that liquid petroleum gas and natural gas are better ways of reducing pollution and decreasing the incidence of diseases which included using dry wood| proper ventilation and many others.
12179,2011,3,3,Long term fertilization effects on soil organic carbon pools in a sandy loam soil of the Indian sub-Himalayas,An understanding of the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) as affected by farming practices is imperative for maintaining soil productivity and mitigating global warming. Results of a long-term (32 years) experiment in the Indian Himalayas under rainfed soybean (Glycine max L.)- wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) rotation was analyzed to determine the effects of mineral fertilizer and farmyard manure (FYM) application at 10 Mg ha(-1) on SOC stocks and depth distribution of the labile and recalcitrant pools of SOC. Results indicate all treatments increased SOC contents over the control. The annual application of NPK significantly (P < 0.05) enhanced total SOC| oxidizable soil organic C and its fractions over the control plots. The increase in these SOC fractions was greater with the NPK + FYM treatment. Nearly 16% (mean of all treatments) of the estimated added C was stabilized into SOC both in the labile and recalcitrant pools| preferentially in the 0-30 cm soil layer. However| the labile:recalcitrant SOC ratios of applied C stabilized was largest in the 15-30 cm soil layer. About 62% of total SOC was present in the labile pool. Plots under the N + FYM and NPK + FYM treatments contained a larger proportion of total SOC in the recalcitrant pool than the plots with mineral or no fertilizer| indicating that FYM application promoted SOC stabilization. 12038,2011,2,4,Long tree-ring chronologies reveal 20th century increases in water-use efficiency but no enhancement of tree growth at five Iberian pine forests,We investigated the tree growth and physiological response of five pine forest stands in relation to changes in atmospheric CO(2) concentration (c(a)) and climate in the Iberian Peninsula using annually resolved width and delta 13C tree-ring chronologies since ad 1600. 13C discrimination (delta approximate to c(i)/c(a))| leaf intercellular CO(2) concentration (c(i)) and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) were inferred from delta 13C values. The most pronounced changes were observed during the second half of the 20th century| and differed between stands. Three sites kept a constant c(i)/c(a) ratio| leading to significant c(i) and iWUE increases (active response to c(a)); whereas a significant increase in c(i)/c(a) resulted in the lowest iWUE increase of all stands at a relict Pinus uncinata forest site (passive response to c(a)). A significant decrease in c(i)/c(a) led to the greatest iWUE improvement at the northwestern site. We tested the climatic signal strength registered in the delta 13C series after removing the low-frequency trends due to the physiological responses to increasing c(a). We found stronger correlations with temperature during the growing season| demonstrating that the physiological response to c(a) changes modulated delta 13C and masked the climate signal. Since 1970 higher delta 13C values revealed iWUE improvements at all the sites exceeding values expected by an active response to the c(a) increase alone. These patterns were related to upward trends in temperatures| indicating that other factors are reinforcing stomatal closure in these forests. Narrower rings during the second half of the 20th century than in previous centuries were observed at four sites and after 1970 at all sites| providing no evidence for a possible CO(2) 'fertilization' effect on growth. The iWUE improvements found for all the forests| reflecting both a c(a) rise and warmer conditions| seem to be insufficient to compensate for the negative effects of the increasing water limitation on growth. 3477,2011,2,2,Long-term analysis of carbon dioxide and methane column-averaged mole fractions retrieved from SCIAMACHY,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and methane (CH(4)) are the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases contributing to global climate change. SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT (launch 2002) was the first and is now with TANSO onboard GOSAT (launch 2009) one of only two satellite instruments currently in space whose measurements are sensitive to CO(2) and CH(4) concentration changes in the lowest atmospheric layers where the variability due to sources and sinks is largest. We present long-term SCIAMACHY retrievals (2003-2009) of column-averaged dry air mole fractions of both gases (denoted XCO(2) and XCH(4)) derived from absorption bands in the near-infrared/shortwave-infrared (NIR/SWIR) spectral region focusing on large-scale features. The results are obtained using an upgraded version (v2) of the retrieval algorithm WFM-DOAS including several improvements| while simultaneously maintaining its high processing speed. The retrieved mole fractions are compared to global model simulations (CarbonTracker XCO(2) and TM5 XCH(4)) being optimised by assimilating highly accurate surface measurements from the NOAA/ESRL network and taking the SCIAMACHY averaging kernels into account. The comparisons address seasonal variations and long-term characteristics. The steady increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels can be clearly observed with SCIAMACHY globally. The retrieved global annual mean XCO(2) increase agrees with CarbonTracker within the error bars (1.80 +/- 0.13 ppm yr(-1) compared to 1.81 +/- 0.09 ppm yr(-1)). The amplitude of the XCO(2) seasonal cycle as retrieved by SCIAMACHY| which is 4.3 +/- 0.2 ppm for the Northern Hemisphere and 1.4 +/- 0.2 ppm for the Southern Hemisphere| is on average about 1 ppm larger than for CarbonTracker. An investigation of the boreal forest carbon uptake during the growing season via the analysis of longitudinal gradients shows good agreement between SCIAMACHY and CarbonTracker concerning the overall magnitude of the gradients and their annual variations. The analysis includes a discussion of the relative uptake strengths of the Russian and North American boreal forest regions. The retrieved XCH(4) results show that after years of stability| atmospheric methane has started to rise again in recent years which is consistent with surface measurements. The largest increase is observed for the tropics and northern mid- and high-latitudes amounting to about 7.5 +/- 1.5 ppb yr(-1) since 2007. Due care has been exercised to minimise the influence of detector degradation on the quantitative estimate of this anomaly. 11998,2011,3,3,Long-Term Bioethanol System and Its Implications on GHG Emissions: A Case Study of Thailand,The study evaluates greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions performance of future bioethanol systems in Thailand to ascertain whether bioethanol for transport could help the country mitigate a global warming impact. GHG emission factors of bioethanol derived from cassava| molasses| and sugar cane are analyzed using 12 scenarios covering the critical variables possibly affecting the GHG performance| i.e.| (1) the possible direct land use change caused by expanding feedstock cultivation areas; (2) types of energy carriers used in ethanol plants; and (3) waste utilization| e.g.| biogas recovery and dry distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) production. The assessment reveals that GHG performance of a Thai bioethanol system is inclined to decrease in the long run due to the effects from the expansion of plantation areas to satisfy the deficit of cassava and molasses. Therefore| bioethanol will contribute to the country's strategic plan on GHG mitigation in the transportation sector only if the production systems are sustainably managed| i.e.| coal replaced by biomass in ethanol plants| biogas recovery| and adoption of improved agricultural practices to increase crop productivity without intensification of chemical fertilizers. Achieving the year 2022 government policy targets for bioethanol with recommended measures would help mitigate GHG emissions up to 4.6 Gg CO(2)-eq per year. 12513,2011,2,4,Long-term climate-associated dynamics of a tropical seagrass meadow: implications for the future,The long-term changes of tropical intertidal seagrass| mainly Halodule uninervis and Halophila ovalis meadows and their relationship to climate are poorly documented. Developing a greater understanding of the effects of climate on seagrass meadows is critical for estimating the effects of future climate change scenarios. Here we document the temporal dynamics of coastal intertidal seagrass in tropical northeast Australia over 16 yr of detailed monitoring. This study is the first to directly relate such change to long-term climate variability in the Indo-Pacific region and southern hemisphere. Regression modelling was used to relate seagrass biomass and meadow area measurements to climate data. The aboveground biomass and area of the meadow were correlated with the interacting factors of air temperature| precipitation| daytime tidal exposure and freshwater runoff from nearby rivers. Elevated temperature and reduced flow from rivers were significantly correlated (R(2) = 0.6| p < 0.001) with periods of lower seagrass biomass. Results of this study have important implications for the long-term viability of seagrasses with regard to climate change scenarios. Modelling of our findings indicates that future higher temperatures could be detrimental to Indo-Pacific intertidal| coastal and estuarine seagrass meadows. 12352,2011,2,4,Long-term climate-related changes in somatic growth and population dynamics of Hokkaido chum salmon,We used multiple regression and path analysis to examine the effects of regional and larger spatial scales of climatic/oceanic conditions on the growth| survival| and population dynamics of Hokkaido chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta). Variability in the growth of chum salmon at ages 1 to 4 was estimated from scale analysis and the back-calculation method using scales of 4-year-old adults returning to the Ishikari River in Hokkaido| Japan| during 1943-2005. Growth of chum salmon at age 1 was less during the period from the 1940s to the mid-1970s compared to the period from the mid-1980s to the present. On the other hand| growth of chum salmon at ages 2| 3| and 4 has declined since the 1980s. Path analysis indicated that growth at age 1 in the Okhotsk Sea was directly affected by warmer sea surface temperatures associated with global warming. The increased growth at age 1 led directly to higher survival rates and indirectly to larger population sizes. Subsequently| in the Bering Sea| the larger population size was directly associated with decreased growth at age 3 and indirectly associated with shorter adult fork lengths despite the lack of relationships among sea surface temperature| zooplankton biomass| and growth at ages 2 to 4. Therefore| higher growth at age 1 related to global warming positively affected the survival rate of juvenile chum salmon in the Okhotsk Sea. The higher survival rates in turn appear to be causing a population density-dependent effect on growth at ages 2 to 4 and maturation in the Bering Sea due to limited carrying capacity. 3434,2011,4,4,Long-term dynamics of herbaceous vegetation structure and composition in two African savanna reserves,P>1. Small fenced reserves are perceived to require management interventions to maintain ecosystems in a natural state. Such interventions are typically initiated and assessed on the basis of short-term observations| while slow changes are often misunderstood or missed entirely. Long-term monitoring is therefore crucial to understand the effect of reserve management on ecosystem structure and functioning. 2. We analysed a 15-year data set of herbaceous vegetation data for 59 monitoring sites in two nature reserves of different size and with different management regimes in a semi-arid| South African savanna. Community composition and vegetation structure (basal cover) were assessed in response to rainfall and management variables. 3. No directional changes over time were found. Basal cover as measured by two proxies (distance to the nearest tuft and tuft diameter) increased with current and previous year rainfall. The relative abundance of functional groups also responded to rainfall| with perennial grasses increasing in relative abundance following a wet year. Compositional responses| as measured by a dissimilarity index of species relative abundance| showed a 2-year lag and responses were larger following dry years than wet years. 4. The response to rainfall of distance to the nearest tuft was significantly weaker in the smaller reserve| while compositional change during dry years was larger than in the larger reserve. 5. Synthesis and applications. Most of the variation in herbaceous basal cover and community composition was associated with differences between years (time) at each site| rather than with differences between sites (space)| indicating that inter-annual variation in rainfall is the most important driver of herbaceous layer dynamics in these systems. However| management did modify the effects of rainfall on herbaceous structure and community composition. The smaller reserve| which had higher grazer and waterhole density| showed greater fluctuations in key herbaceous variables. Such reserves are common in southern Africa and probably require more careful management than larger reserves in the face of global climate change. 11639,2011,3,3,Long-term effects of clear-cutting and selective cutting on soil methane fluxes in a temperate spruce forest in southern Germany,Based on multi-year measurements of CH(4) exchange in sub-daily resolution we show that clear-cutting of a forest in Southern Germany increased soil temperature and moisture and decreased CH(4) uptake. CH(4) uptake in the first year after clear-cutting (-4.5 +/- 0.2 mu g C m(-2) h(-1)) was three times lower than during the pre-harvest period (-14.2 +/- 1.3 mu g C m(-2) h(-1)). In contrast| selective cutting did not significantly reduce CH4 uptake. Annual mean uptake rates were -1.18 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (spruce control)| -1.16 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (selective cut site) and -0.44 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (clear-cut site)| respectively. Substantial seasonal and inter-annual variations in CH(4) fluxes were observed as a result of significant variability of weather conditions| demonstrating the need for long-term measurements. Our findings imply that a stepwise selective cutting instead of clear-cutting may contribute to mitigating global warming by maintaining a high CH(4) uptake capacity of the soil. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12835,2011,2,4,Long-Term Effects of Grazing and Global Warming on the Composition and Carrying Capacity of Graminoid Marshes for Moulting Geese in East Greenland,Greening of the Arctic due to climate warming may provide herbivores with richer food supplies| resulting in higher herbivore densities. In turn| this may cause changes in vegetation composition and ecosystem function. In 1982-1984| we studied the ecology of non-breeding moulting geese in Jameson Land| low Arctic East Greenland. By then| geese consumed most of the graminoid production in available moss fens| and it appeared that the geese had filled up the available habitat. In 2008| we revisited the area and found that the number of moulting geese and the temperature sum for June-July had tripled| while the above-ground biomass in a moss fen ungrazed by geese had more than doubled. In a goose-grazed fen| the overall plant composition was unchanged| but the frequency of graminoids had decreased and the area with dead vegetation and open spots had increased. We suggest that climate warming has lead to increased productivity| allowing for higher numbers of moulting geese. However| the reduction of vegetation cover by grazing may have longer term negative consequences for the number of geese the habitat can sustain. 3328,2011,2,4,Long-term effects of salinity and disturbance regime on active and dormant crustacean communities,In a large-scale and long-term outdoor mesocosm (400-liter) experiment| we studied the interacting effects of salinity and disturbance (hydrological) regime on the active and dormant crustacean communities of Mediterranean temporary wetlands (Camargue| southern France). Sixty-four mesocosms| inoculated with a regional species pool (mixed dormant egg banks)| were exposed to a full factorial treatment combination of four salinity levels and four disturbance regimes during three consecutive years. Both in the active and dormant community component| considerable shifts in community composition occurred because of direct and probably also second-order effects of the treatments. All large branchiopod species had low long-term salinity tolerances and showed species-specific preferences for disturbance regimes according to their life cycle strategy. The highest salinity (5) was not limiting for cladocerans and ostracods| which thrived in the absence of the competitively stronger| predatory| and bioturbating large branchiopods. Copepods were negatively associated with salinity and coped better with the imposed biotic pressure. Zooplankton diversity and density peaked in intermediate-disturbance regimes| probably because only specialized species survived the high-disturbance regimes| whereas at low-disturbance frequencies high densities of predatory Triops controlled zooplankton communities. Although crustacean dormant egg banks can temporarily buffer against unfavorable conditions| persisting bad conditions may lead to their exhaustion within 4 to 10 yr. Predicted aridification (leading to more intense disturbance regimes) may result in the loss of late successional species (chydorids and ostracods)| whereas salinization may wipe out sensitive freshwater species such as large branchiopods. 12459,2011,2,4,Long-term joint effect of nutrients and temperature increase on algal growth in Lake Taihu| China,To study how global warming and eutrophication affect water ecosystems| a multiplicative growth Monod model| modified by incorporating the Arrhenius equation| was applied to Lake Taihu to quantitatively study the relationships between algal biomass and both nutrients and temperature using long-term data. To qualitatively assess which factor was a limitation of the improved model| temperature variables were calculated using annual mean air temperature (AT)| water temperature (WT)| and their average temperature (ST)| while substrate variables were calculated using annual mean total nitrogen (TN)| total phosphorus (TP)| and their weighted aggregate (R)| respectively. The nine fitted curves showed that TN and AT were two important factors influencing algal growth; AT limited growth as algal photosynthesis is mainly carried out near the water surface; N leakage of phytoplankton and internal phosphorus load from sediment explains why TN was the best predictor of peak biomass using the Monod model. The fitted results suggest that annual mean algal biomass increased by 0.145 times when annual mean AT increased by 1.0 degrees C. Results also showed that the more eutrophic the lake| the greater the effect AT had on algal growth. Subsequently| the long-term joint effect of annual temperature increase and eutrophication to water ecosystems can be quantitatively assessed and predicted. 3208,2011,2,4,LONG-TERM SHIFTS IN AUTUMN MIGRATION BY SONGBIRDS AT A COASTAL EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN STOPOVER SITE,We investigated long-term trends in mean autumn capture dates of 19 species of migratory passerines including 11 long-distance migrants and eight short-distance migrants. Birds were captured between 1960 and 2007 at a banding station in southern Rhode Island. We detected annual trends in the highest ranked models with mean capture dates of seven species significantly delayed by an average of 3.0 days per decade; 38% of long-distance migrants and 50% of short-distance migrants studied significantly delayed migration. We found no evidence of long-term shifts in autumn migration timing for seven species and mean capture dates of five species exhibited non-linear annual trends. Mean autumn temperature was an important factor in explaining annual trends for eight species. Changes in annual capture rates for some species may have an equal or greater role than year or temperature in explaining long-term trends in autumn migration timing. Our analysis suggests that some migratory bird species are now departing the region later than in the 1960s. Important differences among species and regions are likely to influence species-specific responses to changes in climate patterns. Received 30 August 2010. Accepted 9 February 2011.
3509,2011,2,4,Long-term warming and litter addition affects nitrogen fixation in a subarctic heath,Nitrogen (N) availability is the main constraint on primary production in most Arctic ecosystems| with microbial fixation of atmospheric N as the primary source of N input. However| there are only few reports on N fixation rates in relation to climate change in the Arctic. In order to investigate the effects of anticipated global climate change on N fixation rates in a subarctic moist heath| a field experiment was carried out in Northern Sweden. Warming was induced by plastic tents| and in order to simulate the effects of future increased tree cover| birch litter was added each fall for 9 years before the measurements. We analyzed N fixation rates on both whole-ecosystem level and specifically on two moss species: Sphagnum warnstorfii and Hylocomium splendens. The whole-ecosystem N fixation of the warmed plots almost tripled compared with the control plots. However| in the Sphagnum and Hylocomium mosses we observed either no change or occasionally even a decrease in N fixation after warming. Both measured on whole-ecosystem level and on the two moss species separately| litter addition increased N fixation rates. The results suggest that warming will lead to a general increased ecosystem N input| but also that the N fixation associated to some moss species is likely to decrease. Hence| this study shows that the scale of measurements is crucial when investigating on ecosystem responses to manipulations. 11611,2011,2,4,Longer growing seasons do not increase net carbon uptake in the northeastern Siberian tundra,With global warming| snowmelt is occurring earlier and growing seasons are becoming longer around the Arctic. It has been suggested that this would lead to more uptake of carbon due to a lengthening of the period in which plants photosynthesize. To investigate this suggestion| 8 consecutive years of eddy covariance measurements at a northeastern Siberian graminoid tundra site were investigated for patterns in net ecosystem exchange| gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R(eco)). While GPP showed no clear increase with longer growing seasons| it was significantly increased in warmer summers. Due to these warmer temperatures however| the increase in uptake was mostly offset by an increase in R(eco). Therefore| overall variability in net carbon uptake was low| and no relationship with growing season length was found. Furthermore| the highest net uptake of carbon occurred with the shortest and the coldest growing season. Low uptake of carbon mostly occurred with longer or warmer growing seasons. We thus conclude that the net carbon uptake of this ecosystem is more likely to decrease rather than to increase under a warmer climate. These results contradict previous research that has showed more net carbon uptake with longer growing seasons. We hypothesize that this difference is due to site-specific differences| such as climate type and soil| and that changes in the carbon cycle with longer growing seasons will not be uniform around the Arctic. 12168,2011,3,3,Low energy synthesis of cement compounds in molten salt,The world cement industry is responsible for >5% of the total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions blamed for causing global warming. The production of cement clinker minerals by precipitation from a molten salt solvent offers a potential route to energy reduction in cement manufacture. Molten salt synthesis of the major cement compounds beta-dicalcium silicate (beta-Ca(2)SiO(4)| beta-C(2)S) and tricalcium silicate (Ca(3)SiO(5)| C(3)S) has been attempted in fused sodium chloride (NaCl). The synthesis of beta-Ca(2)SiO(4) was carried out by the reaction of CaCO(3) with SiO(2) in molten NaCl (CaCO(3)-SiO(2)-NaCl mole ratios 2 : 1 : 19.2 at 908 degrees C| and 2 : 1 : 20.4| 2 : 1 : 13.5| 2 : 1 : 10.3 and 2 : 1 : 8 at 1140 degrees C). The product was characterised by powder X-ray diffraction| Raman scattering and scanning electron microscopy. For the synthesis of Ca(3)SiO(5)| reactants with a molar ratio of 3 : 1 were used (CaCO(3)-SiO(2)-NaCl 3 : 1 : 19.8 at 908 and 1000 degrees C| and 3: 1 : 20| 3 : 1 : 14| 3: 1: 9.9 and 3 : 1 : 8.1 at 1140 degrees C). In all cases beta-Ca(2)SiO(4) was the principal product| with the CaO phase still present and (if any) only small quantities of Ca(3)SiO(5). These observations| coupled with previous studies on the solid state synthesis of Ca(3)SiO(5)| indicate that beta-Ca(2)SiO(4) is an intermediate compound| requiring in excess of 1140 degrees C to react with CaO in order to form tricalcium silicate.
11564,2011,3,2,Low grade heat driven multi-effect distillation technology,Low grade heat driven multi-effect distillation (MED) desalination has received tremendous attention recently. The primary reason is that many countries| such as Australia| are water short and conventional desalination technology is energy intensive. If the required energy hails from fossil fuel source| then the freshwater production will contribute to carbon dioxide emission and consequently global warming. Low grade heat sources such as geothermal energy and waste heat from process plants generate minimal carbon dioxide. This source of energy is generally abundant at a typical temperature around 65-90 degrees C in many localities| and matches perfectly with the MED technology which is driven with a maximum temperature of about 90 degrees C. In this paper| we propose a MED design to better harness the low grade thermal energy. By means of a calibrated simulation model| validated with experimental data of single effect freshwater generators| we demonstrate that 25-60% improvement to the freshwater yield compared with conventional MED design is possible. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12593,2011,2,3,Low mountain ranges: summit traps for montane freshwater species under climate change,Global climate change (GCC) is expected to lead to massive loss of global biodiversity in the alpine regions of mountain ranges. Studies on the potential effects of GCC on low mountain areas remain sparse| however| despite the high conservation value of these areas as biodiversity refugia. We chose a species distribution modeling approach to assess potential GCC impacts on the future distributions of montane freshwater invertebrates under two different greenhouse gas scenarios and three averaged general circulation models. For this| ensemble models consisting of six algorithms [generalized linear model (GLM)| generalized boosted model (GBM)| generalized additive model (GAM)| classification tree analysis (CTA)| artificial neural networks (ANN)| and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)] were applied to project areas of 23 cold-stenothermic aquatic insects from montane regions of Central Europe. We found an average loss of 70-80% of the potential distribution for the study species until 2080| depending on the underlying Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario. Species distribution ranges below 1000 m above sea level were found to decrease by up to similar to 96% according to the severest greenhouse gas emission scenario. While the Alps remain the single main refugium under the A2a greenhouse gas emission scenario| the more moderate climate scenario B2a shows fragmented potential persistence of montane insects in some low mountain ranges. The results show that montane freshwater assemblages in low mountain ranges are particularly threatened by ongoing GCC. As vertical dispersal is limited by elevational restriction| low mountain ranges may act as summit traps under GCC. We thus propose that GCC will lead to the extinction of several species and unique genetic lineages of postglacial relict species| resulting in a significant decline in Central European fauna. 12463,2011,3,4,Magnetite decorated graphite nanoplatelets as cost effective CO(2) adsorbent,Investigation of cost effective CO(2) adsorbent has been a long demanding task in the present scenario of global warming. The present work investigates the high pressure carbon dioxide capture capacity of low cost magnetite decorated functionalized graphite nanoplatelets novel nanocomposite. Graphite nanoplatelets were prepared by acid intercalation followed by thermal exfoliation. Functionalization of graphite nanoplatelets was done by treatment in acidic medium. Magnetite nanoparticles were decorated onto functionalized graphite nanoplatelets surface by a chemical method. Magnetite decorated functionalized graphite nanoplatelets nanocomposite was characterized by electron microscopy| X-ray powder diffraction pattern| surface area analysis| Raman spectroscopy and FTIR spectroscopy techniques. The carbon dioxide capture capacity was measured using high pressure Sieverts apparatus. Adsorption capacity was calculated using the gas equation and incorporating van der Waals corrections at three different temperatures (25| 50 and 100 degrees C). A large enhancement in carbon dioxide uptake capacity of 55%| 80%| and 90% at near 11.5 bar pressure for 100 degrees C| 50 degrees C and 25 degrees C| respectively| was achieved by decorating magnetite nanoparticles onto functionalized graphite nanoplatelet surface. 12196,2011,3,4,Maize silage for dairy cows: mitigation of methane emissions can be offset by land use change,Increasing the digestibility of cattle rations by feeding grains and whole plant silages from maize have been identified as effective options to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The effect of ploughing grassland for maize crops have not been taken into account yet. A intensive dairy farm is used as an example to demonstrate the trade offs by this type of land use change when more maize silage is fed to dairy cows. The model DAIRY WISE has been used to calculate the mitigation by the changed ration| the Introductory Carbon Balance Model to calculate the changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen caused by ploughing grassland for maize crops. The losses of soil carbon and the loss of sequestration potential are much larger than the annual mitigation by feeding more maize. The ecosystem carbon payback time defines the years of mitigation that are needed before the emissions due to land use change are compensated. For ploughing grassland on sandy soils| the carbon payback time is 60 years. A higher global warming potential for methane can reduce the carbon payback time with 30%. Ploughing clay soils with a higher equilibrium level of soil organic matter increases the payback time by maximally 70%. The payback times occur only in the case of permanent maize cropping| grass maize rotations cause annual losses of nitrous oxide that are larger than the mitigation by feeding more maize. 12514,2011,4,2,MAMAP - a new spectrometer system for column-averaged methane and carbon dioxide observations from aircraft: instrument description and performance analysis,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and Methane (CH(4)) are the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases. CH(4) is furthermore one of the most potent present and future contributors to global warming because of its large global warming potential (GWP). Our knowledge of CH(4) and CO(2) source strengths is based primarily on bottom-up scaling of sparse in-situ local point measurements of emissions and up-scaling of emission factor estimates or top-down modeling incorporating data from surface networks and more recently also by incorporating data from low spatial resolution satellite observations for CH(4). There is a need to measure and retrieve the dry columns of CO(2) and CH(4) having high spatial resolution and spatial coverage. In order to fill this gap a new passive airborne 2-channel grating spectrometer instrument for remote sensing of small scale and mesoscale column-averaged CH(4) and CO(2) observations has been developed. This Methane Airborne MAPper (MAMAP) instrument measures reflected and scattered solar radiation in the short wave infrared (SWIR) and near-infrared (NIR) parts of the electro-magnetic spectrum at moderate spectral resolution. The SWIR channel yields measurements of atmospheric absorption bands of CH(4) and CO(2) in the spectral range between 1.59 and 1.69 mu m at a spectral resolution of 0.82 nm. The NIR channel around 0.76 mu m measures the atmospheric O(2)-A-band absorption with a resolution of 0.46 nm. MAMAP has been designed for flexible operation aboard a variety of airborne platforms. The instrument design and the performance of the SWIR channel| together with some results from on-ground and in-flight engineering tests are presented. The SWIR channel performance has been analyzed using a retrieval algorithm applied to the nadir measured spectra. Dry air column-averaged mole fractions are obtained from SWIR data only by dividing the retrieved CH(4) columns by the simultaneously retrieved CO(2) columns for dry air column CH(4) (XCH(4)) and vice versa for dry air column CO(2) (XCO(2)). The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the SWIR channel is approximately 1000 for integration times (t(int)) in the range of 0.6-0.8 s for scenes with surface spectral reflectances (SSR)/albedo of around 0.18. At these integration times the ground scene size is about 23 x 33 m(2) for an aircraft altitude of 1 km and a ground speed of 200 km/h. For these scenes the actual XCH(4) or XCO(2) dry air column retrieval precisions are typically about 1% (1 sigma). Elevated levels of CH(4) have been retrieved above a CH(4) emitting land-fill. Similarly the plume of CO(2) from coal-fired power plants can be well detected and tracked. The measurements by the MAMAP sensor could enable estimates of anthropogenic| biogenic and geological emissions of localized intense CH(4) and CO(2) sources such as anthropogenic fugitive CH(4) emissions from oil and gas industry| coal mining| disposal of organic waste| CO(2) emissions from coal-fired power plants| steel production or geologic CH(4) and CO(2) emissions from seepage and volcanoes. Appropriate analysis of the measurements of MAMAP potentially also yields natural CH(4) emissions from less intense but extensive sources such as wet-lands. 11831,2011,3,3,Managing carbon footprints in inventory management,There is a broad consensus that mankind must reduce carbon emissions to mitigate global warming. It is generally accepted that carbon emission trading is one of the most effective market-based mechanisms to curb the amount of carbon emissions. This paper investigates how firms manage carbon footprints in inventory management under the carbon emission trading mechanism. We derive the optimal order quantity| and analytically and numerically examine the impacts of carbon trade| carbon price| and carbon cap on order decisions| carbon emissions| and total cost. We make interesting observations from the numerical examples and provide managerial insights from the analytical results. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3254,2011,3,3,Managing the Embodied Carbon of Precast Concrete Columns,With the rising recognition of global climate change| the term CO(2) emissions is now part of everyday language. The construction industry plays a significant role in economic growth both directly through its activities and indirectly through the provision of buildings and infrastructures for the smooth functioning of businesses. However| this industry is now highly challenged for its detrimental effect on carbon neutral by consuming materials and energy. Research has been conducted to estimate the embodied carbon of construction materials around the world| such as cement| aggregates| aluminum| and steel. These research findings provided fundamental support in estimating the embodied carbon of precast concrete products. This study investigates the production cycle and estimates the embodied carbon of precast concrete columns| which are typically adopted in the Singapore construction industry| where there is a large demand in public housing projects. The results indicate that 609.59 kg of CO(2) is emitted in the production cycle of a specific type of precast concrete column. Knowing the embodied carbon of precast concrete columns| regulatory bodies are able to provide further recommendations toward sustainable construction. Research institutes can also benefit from this study to conduct further estimation of embodied carbon of other precast concrete products and finally complete the carbon inventory for the construction industry. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)MT.1943-5533.0000287. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers. 12585,2011,2,4,Mapping forest dynamics under climate change: A matrix model,Global climate change may be affecting forests around the world. However| the impact of climate change on forest population dynamics| especially at the landscape or regional level| has hardly been addressed before. A new methodology was proposed to enable matrix transition models to account for climate impact on forest population dynamics. The first climate-sensitive matrix (CSMatrix) model was developed for the Alaska boreal forest based on observations from over 15 years of forest inventory. The spatially explicit model was used to map climate-induced forest population dynamics across the region. The model predicted that the basal area increment in the region under natural succession would be hindered by global warming| more so for dry upland areas than for moist wetlands. It was suggested that temperature-induced drought stress could more than offset a predicted increase of future precipitation in the region to lower overall forest productivity. At the same time| stand diversity would increase across the region through transient species redistribution. Accounting for climate conditions made the CSMatrix model more accurate than conventional matrix models. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12054,2011,2,4,Mapping organic carbon stocks in eucalyptus plantations of the central highlands of Madagascar: A multiple regression approach,Recent concerns about global warming have resulted in more concerted studies on quantification and modeling of carbon (C) storage in different ecosystems. The aim of this study was to assess and map the carbon stocks in above (ABG)| below-ground (BLG) biomass and soil organic carbon contained in the 30 centimeter top-layer (SOC) in coppices of eucalyptus plantations in the central highlands of Madagascar in an area of 1590 ha. Relationships between C stock and various biophysical (stool or shoot stockings and ages| circumferences) and spatial (elevation| slope| and soil type) factors that may affect C storage within each pool were investigated. Three different modeling techniques were tested and compared for various factor sets: (i) simple linear regression (SLM)| (ii) multiple linear (MLM) models and| (iii) boosted regression tree (BRT) models. Weights of the factors in the respective model were analyzed for the three pool-specific models that produced the highest accuracy measurement. A regional spatial prediction of carbon stocks was performed using spatial layers derived from a digital elevation model| remote sensing imagery and expert knowledge. Results showed that BRT had the best predictive capacity for C stocks compared with the linear regression models. Elevation and slope were found to be the most relevant predictors for modeling C stock in each pool| and mainly for the SOC. A factor representing circumferences of stools and their stocking (stools.ha(-1)) largely influenced BLG. Shoot circumference at breast height and shoot age were the best factors for ABG fitting. Accuracy assessment carried out using coefficient of determination (R(2)) and ratio of standard deviation to prediction error (RPD) showed satisfactory results| with 0.74 and 1.95 for AGB| 0.85 and 2.59 for BLG| and 0.61 and 1.6 for SOC respectively. Application of the best fitted models with spatial explanatory factors allowed to map and estimate C contained within each pool : 32 +/- 13 Gg C for ABG| 67 +/- 15 Gg C for BLG and| 139 +/- 36 Gg C for SOC (1 Gg=10(9) g). A total of 238 +/- 40 Gg C was obtained for the entire study area by combining the three C maps. Despite their relatively low predictive quality| models and C maps produced herein provided relevant reference values of C storage under plantation ecosystems in Madagascar. This study contributed to the reducing of uncertainty related to C monitoring and baseline definition in managed terrestrial ecosystem. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3439,2011,4,4,Mapping permeability over the surface of the Earth,Permeability| the ease of fluid flow through porous rocks and soils| is a fundamental but often poorly quantified component in the analysis of regional-scale water fluxes. Permeability is difficult to quantify because it varies over more than 13 orders of magnitude and is heterogeneous and dependent on flow direction. Indeed| at the regional scale| maps of permeability only exist for soil to depths of 1-2 m. Here we use an extensive compilation of results from hydrogeologic models to show that regional-scale (>5 km) permeability of consolidated and unconsolidated geologic units below soil horizons (hydrolithologies) can be characterized in a statistically meaningful way. The representative permeabilities of these hydrolithologies are used to map the distribution of near-surface (on the order of 100 m depth) permeability globally and over North America. The distribution of each hydrolithology is generally scale independent. The near-surface mean permeability is of the order of similar to 5 x 10(-14) m(2). The results provide the first global picture of near-surface permeability and will be of particular value for evaluating global water resources and modeling the influence of climate-surface-subsurface interactions on global climate change. Citation: Gleeson| T.| L. Smith| N. Moosdorf| J. Hartmann| H. H. Durr| A. H. Manning| L. P. H. van Beek| and A. M. Jellinek (2011)| Mapping permeability over the surface of the Earth| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L02401| doi: 10.1029/2010GL045565. 12375,2011,2,4,Marine methane cycle simulations for the period of early global warming,Geochemical environments| fates| and effects are modeled for methane released into seawater by the decomposition of climate-sensitive clathrates. A contemporary global background cycle is first constructed| within the framework of the Parallel Ocean Program. Input from organics in the upper thermocline is related to oxygen levels| and microbial consumption is parameterized from available rate measurements. Seepage into bottom layers is then superimposed| representing typical seabed fluid flow. The resulting CH(4) distribution is validated against surface saturation ratios| vertical sections| and slope plume studies. Injections of clathrate-derived methane are explored by distributing a small number of point sources around the Arctic continental shelf| where stocks are extensive and susceptible to instability during the first few decades of global warming. Isolated bottom cells are assigned dissolved gas fluxes from porous-media simulation. Given the present bulk removal pattern| methane does not penetrate far from emission sites. Accumulated effects| however| spread to the regional scale following the modeled current system. Both hypoxification and acidification are documented. Sensitivity studies illustrate a potential for material restrictions to broaden the perturbations| since methanotrophic consumers require nutrients and trace metals. When such factors are considered| methane buildup within the Arctic basin is enhanced. However| freshened polar surface waters act as a barrier to atmospheric transfer| diverting products into the deep return flow. Uncertainties in the logic and calculations are enumerated including those inherent in high-latitude clathrate abundance| buoyant effluent rise through the column| representation of the general circulation| and bacterial growth kinetics. 12767,2011,3,4,Measurement and analysis of product energy efficiency to assist energy star criteria development: An example for desktop computers,The Energy Star labeling program contributes to reducing economic and environmental impacts. Although product-specific criteria for the label are developed by taking into account potential energy savings| more robust criteria need to be developed to minimize energy consumption (and consequential global warming potential (GWP)). The objectives of this study are: (i) to measure what we refer to as the technical and cost efficiencies of products with respect to the relative Energy Star criteria achievement rate and GWP| respectively; and (ii) to analyze the relationship between these efficiencies and product design features| using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA). As an example| these analyses are applied to data for desktop computers. The results indicate that desktop computer manufacturers currently achieve energy savings that exceed those required by the Energy Star label. The principal product design features affecting the efficiencies are primarily the efficiency and power capacity of the power supply and the number of cores in the central processing unit. This study can help the program develop more robust criteria that ultimately reduce GWP and can provide guidance to manufacturers to strategically improve energy efficiency. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12170,2011,4,4,Measuring temperature variability of five major cities of Pakistan,Changes in surface air temperature during the last century are widely discussed among researches in the field of climate change. This paper measures the variability of annual surface air temperature of five major cities of Pakistan (Lahore| Peshawar| Quetta| Hyderabad and Karachi) for the period from 1882 to 2003. We perform an exploratory analysis which shows that the annual landmass air temperature series of five relatively more important climate stations of Pakistan obey the normal distribution. A subsequent trend analysis shows that the temperature has been increasing in the twentieth century for the five (major) cities of Pakistan| the increase being 0.3A degrees C to 1.0A degrees C. We computations based on Bayesian analysis for two samples (e.g.| for Lahore| we use data for the period from 1882 to 1960 and 1961-2000 for first sample and second sample| respectively) of temperature data of five cites shows that the average of annual mean temperature for the second period is higher than the average of first period. Thus| Bayesian inferencing shows that the general pattern of evolution of temperature over Pakistan is pretty similar to the current global warming configuration. 11805,2011,2,3,Mechanism of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge overflow variation under different atmospheric CO(2) scenarios,Baroclinic transport and the barotropic effect are two different viewpoints for understanding the mechanism of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge overflow. The mechanism of this overflow| being an important deep branch of thermohaline circulation| deserves research discussion| especially against the background of global warming. Using the newly developed ECHAM5/MPI-OM| of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology| which is an advanced atmosphere-sea ice-ocean coupled climate model| the mechanism of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge overflow variation under different atmospheric CO(2) scenarios is studied. First| a control experiment is forced by a fixed CO(2) concentration of 280 ppmv| which is the pre-industrial level before 1860. Three sensitive experiments are carried out under different scenarios of increased atmospheric CO(2) concentrations| which are listed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (B1| A1B and A2). In the control run| more water with higher salinity intruding into the Greenland-Icelandic-Norwegian Seas results in greater barotropic transport and greater overflow because of the baroclinic effect. Therefore| the barotropic effect and baroclinic effect on the overflow are unified. Under the atmospheric CO(2) scenarios| the strength of overflow across the Faro-Bank Channel is controlled by the baroclinic effect and the increase in Denmark Strait overflow is attributed to the barotropic effect. 12276,2011,3,4,Media Literacy as a Key Strategy toward Improving Public Acceptance of Climate Change Science,Without public trust of climate change science| policymaking in a democratic society cannot address the serious threats that we face. Recent calls for proposals to increase "climate literacy" from federal agencies such as NASA| NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)| and the National Science Foundation illustrate the urgency of this crisis. Although more climate change education is certainly needed| focusing solely on climate literacy will not garner public trust and may leave out high-impact media literacy education. Climate change deniers have been more effective "educators" than scientists and science educators because their messages are (a) empowering| built on the premise that every individual can quickly learn enough to enter public discourse on climate change; and (b) delivered through many forms of media. A more effective strategy for scientists and science educators should include not only discourse approaches that enable trust| with emphasis on empowerment through reasoning skills| but also approaches that embrace the maturing discipline of media literacy education.
12868,2011,2,4,META-ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF SOIL WARMING ON SOIL RESPIRATION IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS,No consensus has emerged on the sensitivity of soil respiration to increasing temperatures under global warming due partly to the lack of data and unclear feedbacks. Our objective was to investigate the general trends of warming effects on soil respiration. This study used meta-analysis as a means to synthesize data from eight sites with a total of 140 measurements taken from published studies. The results presented here suggest that average soil respiration in forest ecosystems was increased approximately by 22.5% with escalating soil temperatures while soil moisture was decreased by 16.5%. The decline in soil moisture seemed to be offset by the positive effects of increasing temperatures on soil respiration. Therefore| global warming will tend to increase the release of carbon normally stored within forest soils into the atmosphere due to increased respiration. 11592,2011,2,3,Methane and soil CO(2) production from current-season photosynthates in a rice paddy exposed to elevated CO(2) concentration and soil temperature,Quantification of rhizodeposition (root exudates and root turnover) represents a major challenge for understanding the links between above-ground assimilation and below-ground anoxic decomposition of organic carbon in rice paddy ecosystems. Free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) fumigating depleted (13)CO(2) in rice paddy resulted in a smaller (13)C/(12)C ratio in plant-assimilated carbon| providing a unique measure by which we partitioned the sources of decomposed gases (CO(2) and CH(4)) into current-season photosynthates (new C) and soil organic matter (old C). In addition| we imposed a soil-warming treatment nested within the CO(2) treatments to assess whether the carbon source was sensitive to warming. Compared with the ambient CO(2) treatment| the FACE treatment decreased the (13)C/(12)C ratio not only in the rice-plant carbon but also in the soil CO(2) and CH(4). The estimated new C contribution to dissolved CO(2) was minor (ca. 20%) at the tillering stage| increased with rice growth and was about 50% from the panicle-formation stage onwards. For CH(4)| the contribution of new C was greater than for heterotrophic CO(2) production; ca. 40-60% of season-total CH(4) production originated from new C with a tendency toward even larger new C contribution with soil warming| presumably because enhanced root decay provided substrates for greater CH(4) production. The results suggest a fast and close coupling between photosynthesis and anoxic decomposition in soil| and further indicate a positive feedback of global warming by enhanced CH(4) emission through greater rhizodeposition. 12246,2011,3,4,Methane emission from rice fields in relation to management of irrigation water,A field experiment was conducted for two years to find out best water management practice to mitigate methane emission from the rice-fields. Continuously flooded conditions yielded two major flushes of methane emission and on an average resulted in relatively higher rate of methane emission (2.20 and 1.30 mg m(-2) hr(-1)| respectively in 2005 and 2006) during the kharif season. The methane flux was reduced to half (1.02 and 0.47 mg m(-2) hr(-1)| respectively in 2005 and 2006) when rice fields were irrigated 2-3 days after infiltration of flood water into the soil. Irrigating the field at 0.15 bar matric potential reduced seasonal methane flux by 60% (0.99 and 0.41 mg m(-2) hr(-1)| respectively in 2005 and 2006) as compared to completely flooded conditions| without any decline in grain yield (60 q ha(-1)). 11559,2011,4,3,Methane emissions from sheep pasture| measured with an open-path eddy covariance system,Methane (CH(4)) is an important greenhouse gas| contributing 0.4-0.5 W m(-2) to global warming. Methane emissions originate from several sources| including wetlands| rice paddies| termites and ruminating animals. Previous measurements of methane flux from farm animals have been carried out on animals in unnatural conditions| in laboratory chambers or fitted with cumbersome masks. This study introduces eddy covariance measurements of CH(4)| using the newly developed LI-COR LI-7700 open-path methane analyser| to measure field-scale fluxes from sheep grazing freely on pasture. Under summer conditions| fluxes of methane in the morning averaged 30 nmol m (2) s (1)| whereas those in the afternoon were above 100 nmol m(-2) s(-1)| and were roughly two orders of magnitude larger than the small methane emissions from the soil. Methane emissions showed no clear relationship with air temperature or photo-synthetically active radiation| but some diurnal pattern was apparent| probably linked to sheep grazing behaviour and metabolism. Over the measurement period (days 60-277| year 2010)| cumulative methane fluxes were 0.34 mol CH(4) m(-2)| equating to 134.3 g CO(2) equivalents m(-2). By comparison| a carbon dioxide (CO(2)) sink of 819 g CO(2) equivalents m(-2) was measured over the same period| but it is likely that much of this would be released back to the atmosphere during the winter or as off-site losses (through microbial and animal respiration). By dividing methane fluxes by the number of sheep in the field each day| we calculated CH(4) emissions per head of livestock as 7.4 kg CH(4) sheep(-1) yr(-1)| close to the published IPCC emission factor of 8 kg CH(4) sheep(-1) yr(-1). 11950,2011,3,2,Methane emissions from southern High Plains dairy wastewater lagoons in the summer,Methane is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 25-fold that of CO(2)| and animal agriculture is recognized as a source of CH(4) to the atmosphere. Dairy farms on the southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas (USA) are typically open lot| and sources of CH(4) are enteric emissions from cattle and wastewater lagoons. Uncovered anaerobic lagoons are identified by the US Environmental Protection Agency as a source of CH(4) in dairy manure management systems. Our objective was to quantify summer CH(4) emissions from wastewater lagoons of a commercial dairy farm in eastern New Mexico. Research was conducted during 8 days in August (2009) at a 3500 cow open lot dairy farm with flush alleys. Methane concentration over three lagoons (total area of 1.8 ha) was measured using open path laser spectroscopy. Background CH(4) concentration was measured using a back-flush gas chromatography system with flame ionization. Wind and turbulence data were measured using a three-axis sonic anemometer. Emissions were estimated using an inverse dispersion model. Methane concentrations in the air over the lagoons ranged from 3 to 12 ppm| and averaged 5.6 ppm| with a background CH(4) concentration of 1.83 ppm. Methane flux density (i.e.| emission rate/unit area) ranged from 165 to 1184 mu g/m(2)/s| with a mean daily CH(4) flux density of 402 kg/ha/d. Methane emission rate averaged 0.211 kg/head/d. Uncovered anaerobic lagoons were a source of CH(4) emitted from this southern High Plains dairy farm| and lagoons could be a control point for emission reductions. This article is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions| Guest Edited by TA. McAllister| Section Guest Editors: K.A. Beauchemin| X. Hatt S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology. P.H. Robinson. Published by Elsevier B.V.
11951,2011,3,2,Methane emissions from stored liquid dairy manure in a cold climate,Climate change has been linked to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases including CH(4)| which has a global warming potential 25 times greater than CO(2). Stored liquid animal manure is an important emissions source of CH(4) globally and in Canada. As part of ongoing efforts to mitigate CH(4) emissions| it may be beneficial to obtain field scale flux estimates which can be used to verify CH(4) emission factors. The objective of this study was to measure CH(4) fluxes from a liquid dairy manure storage tank and compare measured fluxes with predicted values using US EPA methodology. Fluxes were measured from a circular concrete tank 11.25 m in diameter storing liquid dairy manure in Bright| Ontario| Canada. Measurements were conducted semi-continuously from January through July 2003| using a tunable diode laser and the non-interfering micrometeorological mass balance method. Monthly average CH(4) flux ranged from 11 mu g/m(2)/s in June after the tank had been emptied| to 153 mu g/m(2)/s in July. Large bubble flux events occurred in February and March that coincided with surface thawing. Predicted emissions using the US EPA approach with carryover of volatile solids showed overestimation unless a substantial correction factor was used. In contrast| if volatile solids were not carried over| predicted fluxes had acceptable agreement with measurements. This article is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions| Guest Edited by TA. McAllister| Section Guest Editors: K.A. Beauchemin| X. Hoo| S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology| P.H. Robinson. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11727,2011,3,4,Methanol production from CO(2) using solar-thermal energy: process development and techno-economic analysis,We describe a novel solar-based process for the production of methanol from carbon dioxide and water. The system utilizes concentrated solar energy in a thermochemical reactor to reenergize CO(2) into CO and then water gas shift (WGS) to produce syngas (a mixture of CO and H(2)) to feed a methanol synthesis reactor. Aside from the thermochemical reactor| which is currently under development| the full system is based on well-established industrial processes and component designs. This work presents an initial assessment of energy efficiency and economic feasibility of this baseline configuration for an industrial-scale methanol plant. Using detailed sensitivity calculations| we determined that a break-even price of the methanol produced using this approach would be 1.22 USD/kg; which while higher than current market prices is comparable to other renewable-resource-based alternatives. We also determined that if solar power is the sole primary energy source| then an overall process energy efficiency (solar-to-fuel) of 7.1% could be achieved| assuming the solar collector| solar thermochemical reactor sub-system operates at 20% sunlight to chemical energy efficiency. This 7.1% system efficiency is significantly higher than can currently be achieved with photosynthesis-based processes| and illustrates the potential for solar thermochemical based strategies to overcome the resource limitations that arise for low-efficiency approaches. Importantly| the analysis here identifies the primary economic drivers as the high capital investment associated with the solar concentrator/reactor sub-system| and the high utility consumption for CO/CO(2) separation. The solar concentrator/reactor sub-system accounts for more than 90% of the capital expenditure. A life cycle assessment verifies the opportunity for significant improvements over the conventional process for manufacturing methanol from natural gas in global warming potential| acidification potential and non-renewable primary energy requirement provided balance of plant utilities for the solar thermal process are also from renewable (solar) resources. The analysis indicates that a solar-thermochemical pathway to fuels has significant potential| and points towards future research opportunities to increase efficiency| reduce balance of plant utilities| and reduce cost from this baseline. Particularly| it is evident that there is much room for improvement in the development of a less expensive solar concentrator/reactor sub-system; an opportunity that will benefit from the increasing deployment of concentrated solar power (electricity). In addition| significant advances are achievable through improved separations| combined CO(2) and H(2)O splitting| different end products| and greater process integration and distribution. The baseline investigation here establishes a methodology for identifying opportunities| comparison| and assessment of impact on the efficiency| lifecycle impact| and economics for advanced system designs. 11548,2011,4,3,Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production,Ecophysiological models are widely used to forecast potential impacts of climate change on future agricultural productivity and to examine options for adaptation by local stakeholders and policy makers. However| protocols followed in such assessments vary to such an extent that they constrain cross-study syntheses and increase the potential for bias in projected impacts. We reviewed 221 peer-reviewed papers that used crop simulation models to examine diverse aspects of how climate change might affect agricultural systems. Six subject areas were examined: target crops and regions; the crop model(s) used and their characteristics; sources and application of data on [CO(2)] and climate; impact parameters evaluated; assessment of variability or risk; and adaptation strategies. Wheat| maize| soybean and rice were considered in approximately 170 papers. The USA (55 papers) and Europe (64 papers) were the dominant regions studied. The most frequent approach used to simulate response to CO(2) involved adjusting daily radiation use efficiency (RUE) and transpiration| precluding consideration of the interacting effects of CO(2)| stomatal conductance and canopy temperature| which are expected to exacerbate effects of global warming. The assumed baseline [CO(2)] typically corresponded to conditions 10-30 years earlier than the date the paper was accepted| exaggerating the relative impacts of increased [CO(2)]. Due in part to the diverse scenarios for increases in greenhouse gas emissions| assumed future [CO(2)] also varied greatly. further complicating comparisons among studies. Papers considering adaptation predominantly examined changes in planting dates and cultivars; only 20 papers tested different tillage practices or crop rotations. Risk was quantified in over half the papers| mainly in relation to variability in yield or effects of water deficits| but the limited consideration of other factors affecting risk beside climate change per se suggests that impacts of climate change were overestimated relative to background variability. A coordinated crop| climate and soil data resource would allow researchers to focus on underlying science. More extensive model intercomparison| facilitated by modular software| should strengthen the biological realism of predictions and clarify the limits of our ability to forecast agricultural impacts of climate change on crop production and associated food security as well as to evaluate potential for adaptation. Published by Elsevier B.V. 11788,2011,3,3,Methyl Coenzyme M Reductase (mcrA) Gene Based Phylogenetic Analysis of Methanogens Population in Murrah Buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis),The aim of the present study was to decipher the diversity of methanogens in rumen of Murrah buffaloes so that effective strategies can be made in order to mitigate methane emission from these methanogens. In the present study diversity of rumen methanogens in Murrah buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) from North India was evaluated by using mcr-A gene library obtained from the pooled PCR product from four animals and by using MEGA4 software. A total of 104 clones were examined| revealing 26 different mcr-A gene sequences or phylotypes. Of the 26 phylotypes| 16 (64 of 104 clones) were less than 97% similar to any of the cultured strain of methanogens. Seven clone sequences were clustered with Methanomicrobium mobile and three clone sequences were clustered with Methanobrevibacter gottschalkii during the phylogenetic analysis. Uncultured group of methanogens comes out to he the major component of the methanogens community structure in Murrah buffaloes. Methanomicrobium phylotype conies out to be major phylotype among cultured methanogens followed by Methanobrevibacter phylotype. These results help in making effective strategies to check the growth of dominant methanogenic communities in the rumen of this animal which in turn help in the reduction of methane emission in the environment and ultimately helps us in fighting with the problem of global warming. 12662,2011,2,4,Microbial community and activity shifts after soil transplantation in a glacier forefield,The majority of Alpine glaciers are currently receding because of global warming. Their forefields have become interesting sites to study primary microbial colonisation and microbial adaptation. Here| the structure and enzyme activity of microbial communities in exposed rock substrates and their changes in a gradient of temperature and soil moisture conditions within the forefield of the Damma glacier in the Swiss Central Alps are discussed. The temperature at the sites differed in the course of a day and also showed differing mean temperatures over the summer. Distinct bacterial communities inhabit the differing sites at the beginning of the experiment and even after transplantation they stay distinct. But a seasonal shift in the communities could be observed| which followed the same pattern for all the samples. Interestingly| microbial enzyme activity was highest at the site with the smallest temperature shifts. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12029,2011,2,4,Microbial community in seawater reverse osmosis and rapid diagnosis of membrane biofouling,Due to the acceleration of global warming and the stress that population growth has placed on the global water supply| seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination is arising as a promising technology to overcome the stress placed on current water resources. However| the biofouling of RO membranes is a common problem| as it causes flux decline| demands frequent cleanings. and consumes high energy| resulting in a shortened lifespan of the system. In an attempt to address these issues| detailed knowledge of the microbial bacteria present| which have a strong correlation between biofilm community structure and operational problems| is ultimately expected to lead to greater control of biofouling. Furthermore| a more rapid diagnosis of biofilm bacteria in SWRO processes is required for faster process feedback. In this study| previous approaches that have been proposed for understanding| diagnosing| and predicting biofouling are reviewed. Finally| the future outlook towards controlling biofouling in SWRO is discussed. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12751,2011,2,4,Microcystin-LR induced DNA damage in human peripheral blood lymphocytes,Human exposure to microcystins| which are produced by freshwater cyanobacterial species| is of growing concern due to increasing appearance of cyanobacterial blooms as a consequence of global warming and increasing water eutrophication. Although microcystins are considered to be liver-specific| there is evidence that they may also affect other tissues. These substances have been shown to induce DNA damage in vitro and in vivo| but the mechanisms of their genotoxic activity remain unclear. In human peripheral blood lymphocytes (HPBLs) exposure to non-cytotoxic concentrations (0| 0.1| 1 and 10 mu g/ml) of microcystin-LR (MCLR) induced a dose- and time-dependent increase in DNA damage| as measured with the comet assay. Digestion of DNA from MCLR-treated HPBLs with purified formamidopyrimidine-DNA glycosylase (Fpg) displayed a greater number of DNA strand-breaks than non-digested DNA| confirming the evidence that MCLR induces oxidative DNA damage. With the cytokinesis-block micronucleus assay no statistically significant induction of micronuclei| nucleoplasmic bridges and nuclear buds was observed after a 24-h exposure to MCLR. At the molecular level| no changes in the expression of selected genes involved in the cellular response to DNA damage and oxidative stress were observed after a 4-h exposure to MCLR (1 mu g/ml). After 24 h| DNA damage-responsive genes (p53| mdm2| gadd45a| cdkn1a)| a gene involved in apoptosis (bax) and oxidative stress-responsive genes (cat| gpx1| sod 1| gsr| gclc) were up-regulated. These results provide strong support that MCLR is an indirectly genotoxic agent| acting via induction of oxidative stress| and that lymphocytes are also the target of microcystin-induced toxicity. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11645,2011,3,3,Microporous organic polymers for carbon dioxide capture,Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are thought to be one cause of global warming. Current methods for CO(2) capture result in large energy penalties. Solid adsorbents are a potential method to capture CO(2)| but the sorbent-sorbate affinity is critical in determining the energetic viability of such processes. In this study| the adsorption of CO(2) in a range of microporous organic polymers was tested. These materials adsorb up to 2.20 mmol/g CO(2) at 298 K and 1 bar| and thus performance is compared with related porous solids in the literature. The relationship between CO(2) uptake and apparent surface area and pore size is described| and this showed that heats of adsorption were important in the low pressure regime. The chemical tuning of gas-sorbent affinity provides a blueprint for the development of improved materials in this area. 12040,2011,3,4,Microstructure of magnesium potassium phosphate cement,The ever growing concerns over global warming and other detrimental ecological changes have spurred the research and development of new types of cementitious materials. Along this line| magnesium potassium phosphate cement (MKPC) appears as one of the most promising candidates| especially in the field of rapid repair. A systematic study of the microstructure of MKPC is conducted| starting from paste design and phase identification| to morphology examination and compositional analysis. The experimental results show that the mechanical properties of the cement pastes are influenced by the crystallinity and growth of magnesium potassium phosphate hexahydrate| the principal reaction product of the heterogeneous system. The final form of the hexahydrate developed in the matrix largely depends on the growth conditions| which is closely related to the calculated molar ratio of magnesia to phosphate (M/P). It is demonstrated that a poor crystal growth and a significant amount of unreacted raw materials can be observed in the cement pastes with low M/P ratios| while a better crystal growth associated with high early strength can be achieved for the pastes with an M/P ratio as high as ten folds of the theoretical one. Finally| the microstructural observations of the different crystalline phases in MKPC are further verified by compositional analysis which agree well with the theoretical values. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3276,2011,2,4,Migratory Responses to Agricultural Risk in Northern Nigeria,We investigate the extent that Nigerian households engage in internal migration to ensure against ex ante and ex post agricultural risk due to weather-related variability and shocks. We use data on the migration patterns of individuals over a twenty-year period and temperature degree days to proxy agricultural risk. We find suggestive evidence of household response to ex ante risk by sending males to migrate. Robust findings show that males migrate in response to ex post risk. As global climate change increases risk| these results suggest that increased migration could result as households mitigate risk and strain limited resources in Nigerian cities. 12141,2011,2,3,Millennial-scale oscillations in the Southern Ocean in response to atmospheric CO(2) increase,A coupled climate-ice-sheet model is used to investigate the response of climate at the millennial time scale under several global warming long-term scenarios| stabilized at different levels ranging from 2 to 7 times the pre-industrial CO(2) level. The climate response is mainly analyzed in terms of changes in temperature| oceanic circulation| and ice-sheet behaviour. For the 4 x CO(2) scenario| the climate response appears to be highly non-linear: abrupt transitions occur in the Southern Ocean deep water formation strength with a period of about 1200 yr. These millennial oscillations do not occur for both lower and larger CO(2) levels. We show that these transitions are associated with internal oscillations of the Southern Ocean| triggered by the Antarctic freshwater budget. We first analyse the oscillatory mechanism. Secondly| through a series of 420 sensitivity experiments we also explore the range of temperature and freshwater flux for which such oscillations can be triggered. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11816,2011,2,4,Minimum| maximum| and mean annual temperatures| relative humidity| and precipitation trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran,One of the most important scientific concerns of the last few decades is climate change| which is the result of a great many factors like global warming. Although a number of studies have been dedicated to understand the phenomenon of climate change| more attention is required to understand the potential effects of global warming on the ecosystems as well as on human life. The present study was designed to survey the trends of minimum| maximum and mean temperatures| relative humidity| and the time series of annual precipitation and 10-year moving average low-pass filter in the 13 synoptic weather stations of Iran's arid and semi-arid regions during the last 55 years by using tau Kendall test. The analyses indicate a significantly increasing trend for the minimum and mean temperatures while a decreasing trend for the mean relative humidity in the arid and semi-arid regions| especially during the last few years up to the year 2000. Any clear increasing or decreasing trend was not found for the maximum temperature| while the precipitation did not show any increasing/decreasing trend for most of the surveyed stations. Further studies| with long-term programming| are recommended to be carried out to evaluate the climate change and its effects on such regions. 3253,2011,5,4,Miocene vegetation and climatic changes reconstructed from a sporopollen record of the Tianshui Basin| NE Tibetan Plateau,The Miocene vegetation and climate history of western China remains unclear. However| widely-distributed Miocene sediments of the Tianshui Basin in the NE Tibetan Plateau provide a great potential for deciphering the Miocene vegetation and climate history of this region. This paper presents first sporopollen record from these sediments| covering the period from 17.1 to 6.1 Ma. Sporopollen data reveal that temperate| warm-temperate broad-leaved forest of Quercus. Ulmus and Betula dominated the Tianshui region between 17.1 and 14.7 Ma| which was replaced by forest or forest-steppe of Ulmus| Artemisia and Betula between 14.7 and 11.7 Ma. After a return to a broad-leaved forest of Betula and Quercus during 11.7-8.5 Ma| the forest decreased rapidly and was replaced mostly by steppe vegetation (mainly composed of Artemisia| Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae) after 8.5 Ma. We interpret the observed vegetation changes as a result of global climate change| which is characterized by global cooling| development of Arctic ice-sheets and permanent El Nino state after the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum. The rapid development of steppe at about 8.5 Ma suggested a permanent drying of the Asian interior at this time| coinciding with the onset of the well-known Hipparion red clay deposition in North China. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12237,2011,3,4,MITIGATION OF METHANE AND NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONS FROM FLOOD-IRRIGATED RICE BY NO INCORPORATION OF WINTER CROP RESIDUES INTO THE SOIL,Winter cover crops are sources of C and N in flooded rice production systems| but very little is known about the effect of crop residue management and quality on soil methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions. This study was conducted in pots in a greenhouse to evaluate the influence of crop residue management (incorporated into the soil or left on the soil surface) and the type of cover-crop residues (ryegrass and serradella) on CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from a flooded Albaqualf soil cultivated with rice (Oryza sativa L.). The closed chamber technique was used for air sampling and the CH(4) and N(2)O concentrations were analyzed by gas chromatography. Soil solution was sampled at two soil depths (2 and 20 cm)| simultaneously to air sampling| and the contents of dissolved organic C (DOC)| NO(3)(-)| NH(4)(+)| Mn(2+)| and Fe(2+) were analyzed. Methane and N(2)O emissions from the soil where crop residues had been left on the surface were lower than from soil with incorporated residues. The type of crop residue had no effect on the CH(4) emissions| while higher N(2)O emissions were observed from serradella (leguminous) than from ryegrass| but only when the residues were left on the soil surface. The more intense soil reduction verified in the deeper soil layer (20 cm)| as evidenced by higher contents of reduced metal species (Mn(2+) and Fe(2+))| and the close relationship between CH(4) emission and the DOC contents in the deeper layer indicated that the sub-surface layer was the main CH(4) source of the flooded soil with incorporated crop residues. The adoption of management strategies in which crop residues are left on the soil surface is crucial to minimize soil CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from irrigated rice fields. In these production systems| CH(4) accounts for more than 90 % of the partial global warming potential (CH(4)+N(2)O) and| thus| should be the main focus of research. 12071,2011,3,4,Mitigation of methane emissions from paddy fields by prolonging midseason drainage,In order to analyze the mitigation of methane (CH(4)) emissions and the global warming potentials (GWPs) of CH(4) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from paddy fields by modifying the adopted water-management technique| we conducted field experiments to measure the CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes at nine sites across Japan. Over 2 years| we tested different water-management strategies such as prolonged midseason drainage (MD) in each site. The CH(4) emission rates at each site varied considerably; the rates were dependent on the ratio of reductive and oxidative capacities of the fields. Seasonal CH(4) emission was effectively reduced at most sites by prolonging MD beyond its conventional duration| especially at sites where organic matter was added to the soil before the cultivation. We attribute this result to the effective suppression of the CH(4) emission peak that occurs early in the cultivation period. Despite the large variation in seasonal CH(4) emissions among the sites| the rate of CH(4) emission resulting from alternative water-management strategies relative to that resulting from conventional water-management strategies is highly dependent on the degree of drainage during the MD period. N(2)O emission at most sites| in terms of GWP-based CO(2)-equivalent| was much smaller than that of CH(4) emission. Compared to conventional water-management strategies| the seasonal CH(4) emissions and the net 100-year GWPs (CH(4) + N(2)O) can be suppressed to 69.5 +/- 3.4 (SE)% and 72.0 +/- 3.1% while maintaining grain yields as high as 96.2 +/- 2.0% by prolonging MD on average by employing the selected alternative water-management strategies that satisfied the following conditions: the percent of CH(4) emission of alternative water-management strategies was less than 90% and the grain yield was greater than 85% relative to conventional water-management strategies. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11642,2011,3,2,Mitigation of short-lived heating components may lead to unwanted long-term consequences,A mitigation strategy for reducing emissions of short-lived heating components such as black carbon (BC) aerosols and ozone precursors to limit global warming has frequently been suggested (Bond| 2007; Grieshop et al.| 2009; Hansen et al.| 2000; Jacobson| 2002; Molina et al.| 2009; Nature Editorial| 2009). BC emissions influence the radiative balance in several ways through direct and semi-direct aerosol effects| as well as by impacting the surface albedo (Forster et al.| 2007)| and their net effect is likely a warming that enhances the total man-made warming. However| the role that BC or other short-lived heating components may play in future mitigation strategies must be formulated with caution to avoid unforeseen and unwanted consequences. A near-term mitigation of short-lived heating components could lead to a delayed action on CO(2) and other long-lived greenhouse gases and thus an increased long-term warming. A key element is whether policies are designed as a consequence of predicted warming or observed warming. Without a clear strategy| early BC or ozone reductions may even lead to an unexpectedly larger temperature change. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12397,2011,3,3,Modeling and simulation of an oxy-fuel combustion boiler system with flue gas recirculation,In this paper| a mathematical model of an oxy-fuel combustion boiler system with flue gas recirculation is investigated. The reduction of CO(2) emission from coal-fired power plants is an important research issue in alleviating the global warming. The entire dynamics are decomposed in two main parts; fireside dynamics and water-side dynamics. The fire-side dynamics consist of the mass and energy balance equations in the furnace (combustion process) and the flue gas dynamics represented by the mass balance equations of five gases (O(2)| CO(2)| SO(2)| H(2)O and NO(2)). The water-side dynamics include a drum pressure equation and a steam temperature equation. To validate the developed models| the real experimental data in Karakas. Koumanakos| et al. (2007) are used. To investigate the local behavior near an operating point| a linearization method at its steady-state condition is pursued. The time responses of the entire dynamics using step inputs (the oxygen mass flow rate| the coal mass flow rate| the primary air mass flow rate| etc.) are also discussed. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12351,2011,3,3,Modeling Carbon Footprints of Organic Orchard Production Systems to Address Carbon Trading: An Approach Based on Life Cycle Assessment,Carbon footprint is widely accepted as an indicator of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. Modeling carbon footprints based on life cycle assessment is applied as a way to evaluate the net contribution of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from orchard production systems over one growing year. This net balance approach considers the sources and sinks of carbon and therefore provides a better reflection of an orchard system's net contribution to climate change. Carbon footprinting of organic kiwifruit and apple production systems in New Zealand indicated that the studied systems had a net sequestration from 2.4 to 5 t of CO(2)e/ha/year and therefore can be potentially considered as carbon sinks under the Kyoto Protocol. This finding implies that the organic kiwifruit and apple orchardist can gain a monetary benefit by earning carbon credits. However| further research to improve and validate this approach is essential before it can be practically used for decision-making at the orchard level and for policymaking at the national level.
12077,2011,3,4,Modeling Carbon Sequestration in Home Lawns,Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and the impact of carbon (C) cycling in urban soils are themes of increasing interest. A model was developed to investigate the potential of C sequestration in home lawns. The model contrasted gross C sequestered versus the hidden C costs (HCC) associated with typical lawn maintenance practices. The potential of SOC sequestration for U.S. home lawns was determined from SOC sequestration rates of turfgrass and grasslands. Net SOC sequestration in lawn soils was estimated using a simple mass balance model derived from typical homeowner lawn maintenance practices. The average SOC sequestration rate for U.S. lawns was 46.0 to 127.1 g C/m(2)/year. Additional C sequestration can result from biomass gains attributable to fertilizer and irrigation management. Hidden C costs are the amount of energy expended by typical lawn management practices in grams of carbon equivalents (CE)/m(2)/year and include practices including mowing| irrigating| fertilizing| and using pesticides. The net SOC sequestration rate was assessed by subtracting the HCC from gross SOC sequestration rate. Lawn maintenance practices ranged from low to high management. Low management with minimal input (MI) included mowing only| a net SOC sequestration rate of 25.4 to 114.2 g C/m(2)/year. The rate of SOC sequestration for do-it-yourself (DIY) management by homeowners was 80.6 to 183.0 g C/m(2)/year. High management| based on university and industry-standard best management recommendation practices (BMPs)| had a net SOC sequestration rate of 51.7 to 204.3 g C/m(2)/year. Lawns can be a net sink for atmospheric CO(2) under all three evaluated levels of management practices with a national technical potential ranging from 25.4 to 204.3 g C/m(2)/year. 12361,2011,2,4,Modeling coupled biogeochemical cycles,Organisms require about 30 essential elements to sustain life. The cycles of these elements are coupled to one another through the specific physiological requirements of the organisms. Here| I contrast several approaches to modeling coupled biogeochemical cycles using an example of carbon| nitrogen| and phosphorus accumulation in a Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forest ecosystem and the response of that forest to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and global warming. Which of these approaches is most appropriate is subject to debate and probably depends on context; nevertheless| this question must be answered if scientists are to understand ecosystems and how they might respond to a changing global environment. 12870,2011,3,4,Modeling Impact of Climate Change and Management Practices on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Arable Soils,Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) were simulated from commonly used crop rotations in eastern Poland for conventional and conservation tillage systems. We used denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model baseline climate conditions and two future climate scenarios (2030 and 2050). Analyzed cropping systems included corn| rapeseed| and spring and winter wheat. It has been shown that an increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation can reduce net global warming potential (GWP) by 2% in the 2030 climate scenario and by 5% in the 2050 scenario in conventional tillage with reference to the baseline scenario. In the case of conservation tillage| a reduction of GWP by 5% and by 10% was estimated. The use of conservation tillage results decrease the GWP by 17-19% in the baseline scenario| in the 2030 scenario by 16-18%| and in the 2050 scenario by 15-17%. It also has been shown that change in climate conditions has declined biomass production of winter wheat and corn| which may suggest that a larger area would be needed for these crops to maintain production at the same level. 12424,2011,3,4,Modeling impacts of farming management practices on greenhouse gas emissions in the oasis region of China,Agricultural ecosystems are major sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions| specifically nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and carbon dioxide (CO(2)). An important method of investigating GHG emissions in agricultural ecosystems is model simulation. Field measurements quantifying N(2)O and CO(2) fluxes were taken in a summer maize ecosystem in Zhangye City| Gansu Province| in northwestern China in 2010. Observed N(2)O and CO(2) fluxes were used for validating flux predictions by a DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. Then sensitivity tests on the validated DNDC model were carried out on three variables: climatic factors| soil properties and agricultural management. Results indicated that: (1) the factors that N(2)O emissions were sensitive to included nitrogen fertilizer application rate| manure amendment and residue return rate; (2) CO(2) emission increased with increasing manure amendment| residue return rate and initial soil organic carbon (SOC); and (3) net global warming potential (GWP) increased with increasing N fertilizer application rate and decreased with manure amendment| residue return rate and precipitation increase. Simulation of the long-term impact on SOC| N(2)O and net GWP emissions over 100 yr of management led to the conclusion that increasing residue return rate is a more efficient method of mitigating GHG emission than increasing fertilizer N application rate in the study area. 12587,2011,3,4,Modeling long-term soil carbon dynamics and sequestration potential in semi-arid agro-ecosystems,Long-term soil carbon (C) dynamics in agro-ecosystems is controlled by interactions of climate| soil and agronomic management. A modeling approach is a useful tool to understand the interactions| especially over long climatic sequences. In this paper| we examine the performance of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to predict the long-term soil C dynamics under various agricultural practices at four semi-arid sites across the wheat-belt of eastern Australia. We further assessed the underlying factors that regulate soil C dynamics in the top 30 cm of soil through scenario analysis using the validated model. The results show that APSIM is able to predict aboveground biomass production and soil C dynamics at the study sites. Scenario analyses indicate that nitrogen (N) fertilization combined with residue retention (SR) has the potential to significantly slow or reverse the loss of C from agricultural soils. Optimal N fertilization (N(opt)) and 100% SR| increased soil C by 13%| 46% and 45% at Warra| Wagga Wagga and Tarelee| respectively. Continuous lucerne pasture was the most efficient strategy to accumulate soil C| resulting in increases of 49%| 57% and 50% at Warra| Wagga Wagga and Tarlee| respectively. In contrast| soil C decreases regardless of agricultural practices as a result of cultivation of natural soils at the Brigalow site. Soil C input| proportional to the amount of retained residue| is a significant predictor of soil C change. At each site| water and nitrogen availability and their interaction| explain more than 59% of the variation in soil C. Across the four sites| mean air temperature has significant (P < 0.05) effects on soil C change. There was greater soil C loss at sites with higher temperature. Our simulations suggest that detailed information on agricultural practices| land use history and local environmental conditions must be explicitly specified to be able to make plausible predictions of the soil C balance in agro-ecosystems at different agro-ecological scales. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11558,2011,4,3,Modeling methane emissions from irrigated rice cultivation in China from 1960 to 2050,Rice paddy is a major source of anthropogenic terrestrial methane (CH(4)). China has the second-largest area of rice cultivation in the world| accounting for ca. 19% of the world's rice-producing area. Recognizing the significance of China's rice cultivation in the global CH(4) budget| we estimated the CH(4) emissions resulting from irrigated rice cultivation in China from 1960 to 2050 using a CH(4)MOD model. The model estimates suggest that the annual CH(4) emissions decreased from 5.62 Tg yr(-1) in 1960 to 4.13 Tg yr(-1) in 1970| and this decrease was attributed to changes in water management from continuous flooding to mid-season drainage irrigation. Since the early 1970s| the amount of CH(4) emissions gradually increased to 6.85 Tg yr(-1) by 2009 because of significant improvements in crop production that led to high-crop residue retention. Higher levels of CH(4) emissions occurred in southern China| where double rice cropping systems are most common. For the A1B and B1 scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)| the amount of CH(4) emissions from 2010 to 2050 is predicted to increase at an average rate of 1.2 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) in response to global warming. Compared to 2009| the CH(4) flux is predicted to increase by ca. 14% by the late 2040s| and the increase in these emissions in northeastern China is estimated to become more significant than in the other rice-growing regions of the country. Under the assumptions that the rice-producing land area will remain the same| decrease by 25% or increase by 38% by the late 2040s| the CH(4) emissions are projected to be 7.8| 5.6 or 11.7 Tg yr(-1)| respectively. 11823,2011,3,3,Modeling nitrogen removal for a denitrification biofilter,Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) is a major greenhouse gas| heavily contributing to global warming. N(2)O is emitted from various sources such as wastewater treatment plants| during the nitrification and denitrification steps. ASM models| which are commonly used in wastewater treatment| usually consider denitrification as a one-step process (NO(3) (-) directly reduced to N(2)) and are as such unable to provide values for intermediate products of the reaction like N(2)O. In this study| a slightly modified ASM1 model was implemented in the GPS-X (TM) software to simulate the concentration of such intermediate products (NO(2) (-)| NO and N(2)O) and to estimate the amounts of gaseous N(2)O emitted by the denitrification stage (12 biofilters) of the Seine-Centre WWTP (SIAAP| Paris). Simulations running on a 1-year period have shown good agreements with measured effluent data for nitrate and nitrite. The calculated mean value for emitted N(2)O is 4.95 kgN-N(2)O/day| which stands in the typical range of estimated experimental values of 4-31 kgN-N(2)O/day. Nitrous oxide emissions are usually not measured on WWTPs and so| as obtained results show| there is a certain potential for using models that quantify those emissions using traditionally measured influent data. 12711,2011,4,4,MODELING POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF TWO FORESTED WATERSHEDS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,Global climate change has direct impacts on watershed hydrology through altering evapotranspiration (ET) processes at multiple scales. There are many methods to estimate forest ET with models| but the most practical and the most popular one is the potential ET (PET) based method. However; the choice of PET methods for AET estimation remains challenging. This study explored ways to identify appropriate PET models for two small forested watersheds| one dominated by conifer plantation and one dominated by native naturally regenerated deciduous hardwoods| by using long-term hydrometeorological data collected at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory in the humid Appalachians in the southeastern U.S. Our specific objectives were to: (I) contrast three common PET models (FAO-56 grass reference ET Hamon PET| and Priestley-Taylor PET) and compare these PET estimates with measured AET at monthly and annual temporal scales| and (2) derive correction factors for the FAO-56 grass reference ET and Hamon PET models at the monthly scale using the Priestley-Taylor equation as the|standard method for estimating forest PET We found that different PET models gave significantly different PET estimates. The Priestley-Taylor equation gave the most reasonable estimates of forest PET for both watersheds. We conclude that the uncorrected Hamon and FAO PET methods would cause large underestimates of forest PET Annual PET rates of the conifer watershed were higher than those of the native deciduous watershed due to the lower albedo (thus higher net radiation) in the former compared to the latter. Monthly correction factors provided useful tools for forest PET estimation in those areas lacking climatic data (i.e.| radiation| humidity| and wind speed). 12638,2011,2,3,Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study,Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [Combo ("COral Mortality and Bleaching Output")] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. Combo calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets| to use as a baseline for running Combo under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1| A1B| and A1FI)| coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035| if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1-1.5A degrees C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue| coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss. 3259,2011,2,4,Modeling soil respiration and variations in source components using a multi-factor global climate change experiment,Soil respiration is an important component of the global carbon cycle and is highly responsive to changes in soil temperature and moisture. Accurate prediction of soil respiration and its changes under future climatic conditions requires a clear understanding of the processes involved. Most current empirical soil respiration models incorporate just few of the underlying mechanisms that may influence its response. In this study| a new partially process-based component model that separately treated several source components of soil respiration was tested with data from a climate change experiment that manipulated atmospheric [CO(2)]| air temperature and soil moisture. Results from this model were compared to results from other widely used models with the parameters fitted using experimental data. Using the component model| we were able to estimate the relative proportions of heterotrophic and autotrophic respiration in total soil respiration for each of the different treatments. The value of the Q (10) parameters for temperature response component of all of the models showed sensitivity to soil moisture. Estimated Q (10) parameters were higher for wet treatments and lower for dry treatments compared to the values estimated using either the data from all treatments or from only the control treatments. Our results suggest that process-based models provide a better understanding of soil respiration dynamics under changing environmental conditions| but the extent and contribution of different source components need to be included in mechanistic and process-based soil respiration models at corresponding scales. 12755,2011,5,3,Modeling the Miocene Climatic Optimum. Part I: Land and Atmosphere,This study presents results from the Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) forced with early to middle Miocene (similar to 20-14 Ma) vegetation| topography| bathymetry| and modern CO(2). A decrease in the meridional temperature gradient of 6.5 degrees C and an increase in global mean temperature of 1.5 degrees C are modeled in comparison with a control simulation forced with modern boundary conditions. Seasonal poleward displacements of the subtropical jet streams and storm tracks compared to the control simulation are associated with changes in Hadley circulation and significant cooling of the polar stratosphere| consistent with previously predicted effects of global warming. Energy budget calculations indicate that reduced albedo and topography were responsible for Miocene warmth in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere while a combination of increased ocean heat transport and reduced albedo was responsible for relative warmth in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere| compared to the present. Model-data analysis suggests Miocene climate was significantly warmer and wetter than simulated here| consistent with previous uncoupled Miocene models and supports recent reconstructions of Miocene CO(2) substantially higher than present. 3507,2011,2,4,Modelled spatial distribution of marine fish and projected modifications in the North Atlantic Ocean,The objectives of this work were to examine the past| current and potential influence of global climate change on the spatial distribution of some commercially exploited fish and to evaluate a recently proposed new ecological niche model (ENM) called nonparametric probabilistic ecological niche model (NPPEN). This new technique is based on a modified version of the test called Multiple Response Permutation Procedure (MRPP) using the generalized Mahalanobis distance. The technique was applied in the extratropical regions of the North Atlantic Ocean on eight commercially exploited fish species using three environmental parameters (sea surface temperature| bathymetry and sea surface salinity). The numerical procedure and the model allowed a better characterization of the niche (sensu Hutchinson) and an improved modelling of the spatial distribution of the species. Furthermore| the technique appeared to be robust to incomplete or bimodal training sets. Despite some potential limitations related to the choice of the climatic scenarios (A2 and B2)| the type of physical model (ECHAM 4) and the absence of consideration of biotic interactions| modelled changes in species distribution explained some current observed shifts in dominance that occurred in the North Atlantic sector| and particularly in the North Sea. Although projected changes suggest a poleward movement of species| our results indicate that some species may not be able to track their climatic envelope and that climate change may have a prominent influence on fish distribution during this century. The phenomenon is likely to trigger locally major changes in the dominance of species with likely implications for socio-economical systems. In this way| ENMs might provide a new management tool against which changes in the resource might be better anticipated. 12011,2011,4,4,Modelling aboveground tree biomass while achieving the additivity property,Measuring forest tree biomass is becoming a very important issue due to the general environmental awareness motivated by global warming and climate change. However| weighing a tree is a very complicated| expensive| and destructive process. The tree is divided into several parts| and the total weight is obtained by adding the weight of the different components. The biomass information of a forest is obtained using statistical models| but one of the main difficulties is that the additivity property is not generally satisfied| i.e.| when adding the predicted weights for the different tree components| the result does not match up with the total weight predicted for the tree. In this work| alternative methods for obtaining biomass predictions satisfying the additivity property are analyzed. In particular| segmented regression models with a common break point and penalized splines with the same smoothing parameter achieve the additivity property without any further adjustments. Some classical models will be also used for comparison purposes. Results are illustrated with real data from a beech forest (European project FORSEE-020) in the province of Navarre| Spain. 12161,2011,2,4,Modelling the effect of temperature variation on the seasonal dynamics of Ixodes ricinus tick populations,Seasonal variation in temperature is known to drive annual patterns of tick activity and can influence the dynamics of tick-borne diseases. An age-structured model of the dynamics of Ixodes ricinus populations was developed to explore how changes in average temperature and different levels of temperature variability affect seasonal patterns of tick activity and the transmission of tick-borne diseases. The model produced seasonal patterns of tick emergence that are consistent with those observed throughout Great Britain. Varying average temperature across a continuous spectrum produced a systematic pattern in the times of peak emergence of questing ticks which depends on cumulative temperature over the year. Examination of the effects of between-year stochastic temperature variation on this pattern indicated that peak emergence times are more strongly affected by temperature stochasticity at certain levels of average temperature. Finally the model was extended to give a simple representation of the dynamics of a tick-borne disease. A threshold level of annual cumulative temperature was identified at which disease persistence is sensitive to stochastic temperature variation. In conclusion| the effect of changing patterns of temperature variation on the dynamics of I. ricinus ticks and the diseases they transmit may depend on the cumulative temperature over the year and will therefore vary across different locations. The results also indicate that diapause mechanisms have an important influence on seasonal patterns of tick activity and require further study. (C) 2011 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12602,2011,4,4,Modelling the long-term morphological evolution of the Clyde Estuary| Scotland| UK,The long-term morphodynamic response of the Clyde Estuary to any possible change in environmental forcing associated with global climate change and human interference is examined here using a model based on a systems approach. The model| which uses Boolean Algebra as its formal mathematical language| provides a qualitative insight into the long term morphodynamic behaviour of the estuarine system| at this level without the need for detailed and quantitative hydrodynamic and morphodynamic process knowledge or extensive data resources. The model predictions suggest that the long-term morphological changes in the Clyde Estuary largely depend on the fluvial flow of the River Clyde. Salt marshes in the upper reaches of the estuary were found to be the most vulnerable morphological feature of the estuary. In the event of increased river flow in the future| a likely situation according to climate change scenarios| saltmarshes will deplete or disappear altogether| irrespective of the sediment influx into the estuary. Changes to waves and tides will also contribute to the evolution by taking the estuary through significantly different intermediate morphological states whilst evolving towards a stable end state. 12640,2011,2,4,Modelling the potential impact of global warming on Ips typographus voltinism and reproductive diapause,The Eurasian spruce bark beetle| Ips typographus| is one of the major forest insect pests in Europe| capable of mass-attacking and killing mature Norway spruce trees. The initiation and development of a new generation are strongly controlled by temperature and a warmer climate may affect the number of generations that is produced per year and hence the outbreak dynamics. Experimental knowledge regarding reproductive diapause adaptations is| however| too sparse for large-scale assessments of future trends. We developed a model description of diapause induction| and used gridded observational temperature data to evaluate multiple combinations of day length and temperature thresholds to find the model parameterisation most coherent with I. typographus monitoring data from Scandinavia. The selected model parameterisation is supported by European literature data| though further experimental studies are required to analyse population specific adaptations and capacity for adjustments to changing climate conditions. Implementing the model description of reproductive diapause in a temperature driven model of bark beetle phenology (swarming activity and development from egg to mature bark beetle)| enabled us to assess the length of the late summer swarming period that is a critical determinant of the risk of forest damage. By using regional climate model data we show that higher temperatures can result in increased frequency and length of late summer swarming events| producing a second generation in southern Scandinavia and a third generation in lowland parts of central Europe. Reproductive diapause will not prevent the occurrence of an additional generation per year| but the day length cues may restrict the length of the late summer swarming period. 3318,2011,4,4,Models as multiple working hypotheses: hydrological simulation of tropical alpine wetlands,Tropical alpine grasslands| locally known as paramos| are the water towers of the northern Andes. They are an essential water source for drinking water| irrigation schemes and hydropower plants. But despite their high socio-economic relevance| their hydrological processes are very poorly understood. Since environmental change| ranging from small scale land-use changes to global climate change| is expected to have a strong impact on the hydrological behaviour| a better understanding and hydrological prediction are urgently needed. In this paper| we apply a set of nine hydrological models of different complexity to a small| well monitored upland catchment in the Ecuadorian Andes. The models represent different hypotheses on the hydrological functioning of the paramo ecosystem at catchment scale. Interpretation of the results of the model prediction and uncertainty analysis of the model parameters reveals important insights in the evapotranspiration| surface runoff generation and base flow in the paramo. However| problems with boundary conditions| particularly spatial variability of precipitation| pose serious constraints on the differentiation between model representations. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 12555,2011,3,3,MOLECULAR IDENTIFICATION OF METHANOGENIC ARCHAEA FROM SURTI BUFFALOES (BUBALUS BUBALIS)| REVEALS MORE HYDROGENOTROPHIC METHANOGENS PHYLOTYPES,Methane emissions from ruminant livestock are considered to be one of the more potent forms of greenhouses gases contributing to global warming. Many strategies to reduce emissions are targeting the methanogens that inhabit the rumen| but such an approach can only be successful if it targets all the major groups of ruminant methanogens. Therefore| a thorough knowledge of the diversity of these microbes in breeds of buffaloes| as well as in response to geographical location and different diets| is required. Therefore| molecular diversity of rumen methanogens in Surti buffaloes was investigated using 16S rRNA gene libraries prepared from pooled rumen contents from three Surti buffaloes. A total of 171 clones were identified revealing 23 different sequences (phylotypes). Of these 23 sequences| twelve sequences (12 OTUs| 83 clones) and 10 sequences (10 OTUs| 83 clones) were similar to methanogens belonging to the orders Methanomicrobiales and Methanobacteriales| and the remaining 1 phylotype (5 clones) were similar to Methanosarcina barkeri. These unique sequences clustered within a distinct and strongly supported phylogenetic group. Further studies and effective strategies can be made to inhibit the growth of Methanomicrobiales and Methanobacteriales phylotypes to reduce the methane emission from rumen and thus help in preventing global warming. 11848,2011,2,4,Monitoring lake level changes on the Tibetan Plateau using ICESat altimetry data (2003-2009),In this study. ICESat altimetry data are used to provide precise lake elevations of the Tibetan Plateau (IF) during the period of 2003-2009. Among the 261 lakes examined ICESat data are available on 111 lakes: 74 lakes with ICESat footprints for 4-7 years and 37 lakes with footprints for 1-3 years. This is the first time that precise lake elevation data are provided for the 111 lakes. Those ICESat elevation data can be used as baselines for future changes in lake levels as well as for changes during the 2003-2009 period. It is found that in the 74 lakes (56 salt lakes) examined| 62 (i.e. 84%) of all lakes and 50 (i.e. 89%) of the salt lakes show tendency of lake level increase. The mean lake water level increase rate is 0.23 m/year for the 56 salt lakes and 0.27 m/year for the 50 salt lakes of water level increase. The largest lake level increase rate (0.80 m/year) found in this study is the lake Cedo Caka. The 74 lakes are grouped into four subareas based on geographical locations and change tendencies in lake levels. Three of the four subareas show increased lake levels. The mean lake level change rates for subareas I| II| III| IV| and the entire TP are 0.12| 0.26| 0.19| -0.11| and 0.2 m/year| respectively. These recent increases in lake level| particularly for a high percentage of salt lakes| supports accelerated glacier melting due to global warming as the most likely cause. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 12735,2011,4,4,Monitoring sea level change at Cascais tide gauge,Antunes| C.| 2011. Monitoring sea level change at Cascais tide gauge. Journal of Coastal Research| SI 64 (Proceedings of the 11th International Coastal Symposium)| 870 - 874. Szczecin| Poland| ISSN 0749-0208 Sea level change (SLC) real-time monitoring has being developed and improved for the Portuguese tide gauge| based in FTP access to the internet server of the Portuguese geographical institute. A software application| named MareVB and in development since 2008| gets a 3 minute stream input of sea level height and a 10 minute stream input of air-pressure. Based on a predicted tide model| the sea level height is compared and analyzed| and storm-surge amplitude is determined| as well as the high frequency oscillation (seichas) due to the storm and tsunami waves. Using such real-time SLC data analysis| the application is now running as a coastal hazard warning system| emailing automatic warnings in real-time to national authorities and to other institutions and coworkers| where the levels of coastal hazards of SLC are considered. A post-processing monitoring of SLC is also performed and a time series is evaluated and actualized. Such SLC time series enables the statistics of storm-surges and the determination of the sea level rise rate associated to the global climate change and other regional phenomena. The computational methodology| the application for real-time monitoring and the statistics of storm-surges at Cascais for the period of last 10 years are presented here. 12630,2011,2,4,More Winter Chill for Fruit Trees in Warmer Winters?,The objective of this study was the calculation of winter chill for fruit trees in the Meckenheim fruit growing region for all winters since 1958 and the evaluation of long-term trends in response to global warming. A further objective was the comparison of three winter chill models| the Chilling Hours Model (Chilling Hours-CH)| the Utah Model (Chill Units-CU) and the Dynamic Model (Chill Portions-CP) with respect to temporal trends and seasonal variation in chilling intensity. To meet these objectives| about 120|000 hourly temperature measurements from Klein-Altendorf were correlated with daily temperature extremes. From this relationship| a long-term record of 466|000 hourly temperature data was constructed and used to calculate winter chill between 1st October of each year and three dates of the following year for all winters since 1958/1959. On average over all years| 955 CH| 1160 CU and 58.0 CP had accumulated in the Meckenheim fruit growing region by 1st January| 1356 CH| 1527 CU and 77.3 CP by 1st February| and 1727 CH| 1883 CU and 96.1 CP by 1st March. Coefficients of variation varied between 14 and 16% for the Chilling Hours Model| between 18 and 19% for the Utah Model and between 9 and 10% for the Dynamic Model. In spite of significant warming of the site| no clear long-term trends were detected. Due to the structure of the winter chill models| which do not consider freezing temperatures as chilling-effective| the highest chilling was not registered in the coldest winters| but rather when average temperatures between early December and late February were between 2 and 6A degrees C. The coldest winter on record (1963/1964; mean winter temperature of -aEuro parts per thousand 4A degrees C) had by far the lowest winter chill total| and chilling during the more recent cold winters 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 was also below average. Only very pronounced warming reduced winter chill| with the warmest winter on record (2006/2007; mean winter temperature of 7.1A degrees C) accumulating less winter chill than slightly cooler winters. As long as such extreme temperatures remain exceptional| fulfilment of chilling requirements of local apple and cherry cultivars should not become critical. It is important to note| however| that substantial knowledge gaps exist in the field of fruit tree dormancy| which will have to be closed| before more reliable projections of future fulfilment of chilling requirements can be made. 11680,2011,2,4,MORPHOFUNCTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF PITUITARY ADRENOCORTICOTROPES IN AN ANIMAL MODEL OF HEAT STRESS,As a result of the global warming| the average ambient temperature during summertime has increased in regions with moderate continental climate. The effects of 24 h exposure to heat stress (35 +/- 1 degrees C) on the morphology and function of pituitary adrenocorticotropes were examined in adult male Wistar rats. Significant changes in the morphofunctional features of adrenocorticotropes were found after the heat stress| with no differences noted in the cell shape or localization| compared to controls. The adrenocorticotropes cell volume| as well as the volume density| were significantly decreased (p<0.05) by 12.3% and 26.7%| respectively| in comparison with controls. The concentration of plasma adrenocorticotropic hormone and serum corticosterone in the heat stressed group were significantly decreased (p<0.05) by 21.9% and 27.2%| respectively| compared to controls. These findings suggest that 24 h exposure of adult male rats to heat stress has an inhibitory effect on the morphofunctional characteristics of adrenocorticotropes. 12449,2011,2,3,Morphological Mechanism of Growth Response in Treeline Species Minjiang Fir to Elevated CO(2) and Temperature,To test whether and how morphological traits are linked with growth responses of plants to temperature and CO(2) is important for understanding the mechanism underlying how plant growth will respond to global warming. In this study| using closed-top chambers to mimic future elevated CO(2) and temperature| the growth response| morphological traits of Minjiang fir (Abies faxoniana Rehd.et Wils.) and the relationship of the two were investigated after two years of exposure to the single and combined elevation of CO(2) and temperature. The results showed that biomass of Minjiang fir was 21%| 31%| and 35% greater than the control in elevated CO(2)| elevated temperature and the combination of elevated CO(2) and temperature treatments| respectively. Elevated CO(2) and temperature significantly affected the morphology of Minjiang fir| and a few morphological traits were highly correlated with growth responses. Larger branch angles at the upper layer| crown volume| and relative crown length contributed to positive growth responses to elevated CO(2)| while decreased specific leaf area (SLA) constricted any further growth response. Leaf morphological traits were more closely correlated with the response ratio than crown did in the elevated temperature| while in the combination of elevated CO(2) and temperature| crown was more correlated with the response ratio than the leaf morphological traits. Thus| our results indicate that morphological traits may contribute differently to growth responses under different experimental conditions. 12024,2011,2,4,Morphology and protein profiles of salivary glands of filarial vector mosquito Mansonia uniformis; possible relation to blood feeding process,Background: Vector control is a key strategy for eradication of filariasis| but it is limited| possibly due to rapid propagation from global warming. In Thailand| Mansonia mosquitoes are major vectors of filariasis caused by Brugia malayi filarial nematodes. However| little is yet known about vector biology and host-parasite relationship. Objectives: Demonstrate the preliminary data of salivary gland morphology and protein profile of human filarial mosquitoes M uniformis. Methods: Morphology of M. uniformis salivary gland in both sexes was comparatively studied under a light microscope. Total protein quantization and sodium dodecyl sulphate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) was performed to compare protein profile between male and female. In addition| quantitative analysis prior to and after blood feeding was made at different times (0| 12| 24| 36| 48| 60| and 72 hours) Results: Total salivary gland protein of males and females was 0.32+/-0.03 and 1.38+/-0.02 mu g/pair gland| respectively. SDS-PAGE analysis of the female salivary gland protein prior to blood meal demonstrated twelve bands of major proteins at 21| 22| 24| 26| 37| 39| 44| 53| 55| 61| 72| and 100 kDa. Compared to female| male salivary gland was composed of seven major protein bands at 39| 44| 53| 55| 61| 83| and 100 kDa. Quantitative study after blood feeding revealed that protein of 37 kDa decreased gradually whereas proteins of 61 and 83 kDa started to increase dramatically at 24 hours. It was postulated that the 37 kDa band| found only in the female| might serve as a candidate molecule for facilitating blood feeding. Conclusion: Morphology and protein components of M. uniformis salivary glands might relate to blood feeding process and filarial disease transmission.
12599,2011,2,4,Mortality and recruitment in an urban forest (Forest Park in Portland| Oregon) between 1993 and 2003,I examined tree recruitment and mortality over a ten-year period at permanent plots in an urban forest| Forest Park| in Portland| Oregon. The density and diameter at breast height (dbh) for all trees living and dead were measured in 1993 and again in 2003. Data were analyzed using paired Student t-tests. I found significantly fewer live and significantly more dead trees in 2003 than in 1993. The increase in mortality was significant for all species of trees and for all sizes except large diameter trees. Mortality rates ranged from 0% to 67% at my sites. Recruitment was lower at all sites in 2003 with significantly fewer seedlings and saplings. The high mortality and low recruitment resulted in a net loss of trees at all sites. Loss of trees was not offset by increasing tree diameter| which suggests self-thinning is not the cause. No strong correlation with an urban to rural land use gradient was observed. The results may be related to global climate change or pollution. The high mortality of trees of all species in many diameter classes without a concomitant increase in recruitment could lead to dramatic changes in forest structure. 12766,2011,4,4,Multi-model climate projections for biodiversity risk assessments,Species distribution models| linked to climate projections| are widely used in extinction-risk assessment and conservation planning. However| the degree of confidence that we can place on future climate-change projections depends on global climate-model performance and involves uncertainties that need to be assessed rigorously via climate-model evaluation. Performance assessments are important because the choice of climate model influences projections of species' range movement and extinction risk. A consensus view from the climate modeling community is that no single climate model is superior in its ability to forecast key climatic features. Despite this| the advantages of using multi-model ensemble-averaged climate forecasts to account for climate-model uncertainties have not been recognized by ecologists. Here we propose a method to use a range of skill and convergence metrics to rank commonly used atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) according to their skill in reproducing 20-year observed patterns of regional and global climates of interest| and to assess their consistency with other AOGCMs. By eliminating poorly performing models and averaging the remainder with equal weights| we show how downscaled annual multi-climate-model ensemble-averaged forecasts| which have a strong regional focus| can be generated. We demonstrate that: (1) model ranking (match of simulated to observed conditions) differs according to the skill metric used| as well as the climate variable and season considered; (2) although the multi-model averaged result tends to outperform single models at a global scale| at the continental scale at least some models can perform better than the multi-model average; and (3) forecasts for the Australian region| which are often based on a single AOGCM (CSIRO-3.0)| show spatial patterns of change that differ noticeably from ensemble-average projections based on a subset of better-performing AOGCMs. Our suggested approach-novel in the ecology discipline-provides a straightforward| consistent| and defensible method for conservation practitioners and natural-resource managers to generate estimates of future climate change at a spatial resolution suitable for biodiversity impact studies. 12298,2011,2,3,Multi-model Projection of July-August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO(2) Doubling. Part I: Precipitation,Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July-August over China in response to CO(2) doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (2003M) experiment and the 1% per year CO(2) increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). Evaluation of the models' performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However| all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by similar to 50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is similar to 2-3 times larger than that over the other areas. Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the 1pctto2x scenario| the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation| indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China| which follows the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Whereas| the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence| which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming. 12718,2011,5,4,Multi-proxy identification of the Laschamp geomagnetic field excursion in Lake Pupuke| New Zealand,We present palaeomagnetic and cosmogenic radionuclide records of the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion in Lake Pupuke| a maar lake in Auckland| New Zealand. Laschamp was identified by a combination of relative palaeointensity| (10)Be and (14)C data from the lake sediments and represents the first such record from the Southern Hemisphere. Despite the high organic carbon content| which causes relatively weak natural remanent magnetisations| the geomagnetic intensity minimum associated with the Laschamp excursion is identifiable as a relative palaeointensity minimum that is synchronous with (i) a peak in (10)Be concentration and (ii) an anomaly in Delta(14)C. The Lake Pupuke time scale| provided by (14)C data calibrated with INTCAL09| places the (10)Be maximum at the same time as a (10)Be maximum in Greenland ice cores when secured to the GICC05 time scale. The central age of the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion in Lake Pupuke as defined by the (10)Be prediction peak is c. 41 kyr| which confirms its global application as a palaeomagnetic isochron. Anomalous palaeomagnetic directional data at c. 32 kyr in the Lake Pupuke sediments may represent the Mono Lake geomagnetic excursion| but tephra layers caused by frequent eruptions in the Auckland volcanic field during this excursion probably disrupted the palaeointensity signal. The study highlights the value of combining traditional palaeomagnetic methods with measurements of cosmogenic radionuclides in the quest for accurate and precise geochronologies during MIS3| a time of rapid global climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12131,2011,2,4,Multidecadal variability of the North Brazil Current and its connection to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation,The North Brazil Current (NBC) connects the North and South Atlantic and is the major pathway for the surface return flow of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here| we calculate the NBC geostrophic transport time series based on 5 decades of observations near the western boundary off the coast of Brazil. Results reveal a multidecadal NBC variability that lags Labrador Sea deep convection by a few years. The NBC transport time series is coherent with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in sea surface temperature| which also has been widely linked to AMOC fluctuations in previous modeling studies. Our results thus suggest that the observed multidecadal NBC transport variability is a useful indicator for AMOC variations. The suggested connection between the NBC and AMOC is assessed in a 700 year control simulation of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's CM2.1 coupled climate model. The model results are in agreement with observations and further demonstrate that the variability of NBC transport is a good index for tracking AMOC variations. Concerning the debate about whether a slowdown of AMOC has already occurred under global warming| the observed NBC transport time series suggests strong multidecadal variability but no significant trend. 12349,2011,3,4,Multiobjective bacteria foraging algorithm for electrical load dispatch problem,In this paper the bacteria foraging meta-heuristic is extended into the domain of multiobjective optimization. In this multiobjective bacteria foraging (MOBF) optimization technique| during chemotaxis a set of intermediate bacteria positions are generated. Next| we use pareto non-dominance criterion to determine final set of bacteria positions| which constitute the superior solutions among current and intermediate solutions. To test the efficacy of our proposed algorithm we have chosen a highly constrained optimization problem namely economic/emission dispatch. Economic dispatch is a constrained optimization problem in power system to distribute the load demand among the committed generators economically. Now-a-days environmental concern that arises due to the operation of fossil fuel fired electric generators and global warming| transforms the classical economic load dispatch problem into multiobjective environmental/economic dispatch (EED). In the proposed work| we have considered the standard IEEE 30-bus six-generator test system on which several other multiobjective evolutionary algorithms are tested. We have also made a comparative study of the proposed algorithm with that of reported in the literature. Results show that the proposed algorithm is a capable candidate in solving the multiobjective economic emission load dispatch problem. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3490,2011,4,4,Multiplicity of solutions of the inverse problem for determining optical atmospheric parameters from remote observations,Global climate change observed during the last two decades of the 20th century has attracted the attention of the world's scientific community. The non-uniqueness of atmospheric aerosols and the impact of clouds on warming (or cooling) of the atmosphere-underlying surface system need more detailed modelling to elucidate the optical properties of the atmosphere and surface. In multi-angle remote sensing| inverse problem retrieval using radiances over only one pixel presents a fundamental difficulty involving the multiplicity of solutions. In particular| it was found that different analytical approaches for the retrieval of optical parameters give a multiplicity of solutions| even in the simplest case of the slab homogeneous model and the standard scheme of illumination of the clear atmosphere. The phase function was approximated with one parameter functions. Only four parameters of the homogeneous atmosphere are retrieved in our simple variant. The found effect does not link with the low information content of observational data in respect to the desired parameters. It is not a result of the ill-posed inverse problem| insofar as it concerns properties of integral functionals in customary comprehension and calls for strong variations of vertical profiles of parameters. It seems that the effect of solution multiplicity is a direct consequence of radiation field non-linear dependence on atmospheric and surface parameters that leads to closely coinciding radiation fields forming with essentially different combinations of optical parameters. 12268,2011,4,4,Multiyear analysis of Terra/Aqua MODIS aerosol optical depth and ground observations over tropical urban region of Hyderabad| India,Remote sensing of global aerosols has constituted a great scientific interest in a variety of applications related to global warming and climate change. The present study uses Level 2 (10 x 10 km) and Level 3 (1 degrees x 1 degrees) Terra/Aqua MODIS (C005) derived aerosol optical depths at 550 nm (AOD(550)) and compares them with ground-based (MICROTOPS-II| MT) sun photometer measured AOD(550) in the period 2002-2008 over Hyderabad| India. The correlation coefficient (R(2)) between Level 3 Terra/Aqua MODIS and MT AOD(550) in all seasons ranges from 0.30 to 0.46. Even lower correlations revealed when the Level 2 MODIS data are used (R(2) = 0.16-0.30). The Level 3 MODIS AOD(550) underestimates significantly the MT AOD(550)| while the Level 2 AOD(550) values are much larger than those of Level 3. The comparison of the Terra/Aqua MODIS AOD(550) at regional scale| and especially over urban/industrial areas with significant aerosol diurnal variation| constitutes a real challenge and may reveal the ability of the two sensors to capture the temporal variation of the aerosol loading within a time interval of 3 h. The results show relatively good correlation (R(2) similar to 0.6-0.7) regarding the Level 3 dataset; however| the Level 2 data showed large scatter and very poor correlations. On the other hand| the mean seasonal AOD(550) values are similar| while Terra AOD(550) is higher than that obtained from Aqua. Both satellite and ground-based measurements show remarkable increasing trends in AOD over Hyderabad| which are attributed to the extension of the urbanized area| the growing of population| motor vehicles and local emissions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11697,2011,4,4,N(2)O binding at a [4Cu:2S] copper-sulphur cluster in nitrous oxide reductase,Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) is generated by natural and anthropogenic processes and has a critical role in environmental chemistry. It has an ozone-depleting potential similar to that of hydrochlorofluorocarbons as well as a global warming potential exceeding that of CO(2) 300-fold(1|2). In bacterial denitrification| N(2)O is reduced to N(2) by the copper-dependent nitrous oxide reductase (N(2)OR)(3). This enzyme carries the mixed-valent Cu(A) centre and the unique| tetranuclear Cu(Z) site. Previous structural data were obtained with enzyme isolated in the presence of air that is catalytically inactive without prior reduction. Its Cu(Z) site was described as a [4Cu:S] centre| and the substrate-binding mode and reduction mechanism remained elusive. Here we report the structure of purple N(2)OR from Pseudomonas stutzeri| handled under the exclusion of dioxygen| and locate the substrate in N(2)O-pressurized crystals. The active Cu(Z) cluster contains two sulphur atoms| yielding a [4Cu:2S] stoichiometry; and N(2)O bound side-on at Cu(Z)| in close proximity to Cu(A). With the substrate located between the two clusters| electrons are transferred directly from Cu(A) to N(2)O| which is activated by side-on binding in a specific binding pocket on the face of the [4Cu:2S] centre. These results reconcile a multitude of available biochemical data on N(2)OR that could not be explained by earlier structures| and outline a mechanistic pathway in which both metal centres and the intervening protein act in concert to achieve catalysis. This structure represents the first direct observation| to our knowledge| of N(2)O bound to its reductase| and sheds light on the functionality of metalloenzymes that activate inert small-molecule substrates. The principle of using distinct clusters for substrate activation and for reduction may be relevant for similar systems| in particular nitrogen-fixing nitrogenase(4). 12624,2011,4,3,N(2)O Fluxes from Peatland Buffer Areas after High N Loadings in Five Forested Catchments in Finland,Peatlands are becoming increasingly used as buffer areas to reduce nutrient transport into watercourses| but knowledge on the dynamics of the element cycle| particularly in gas phase is scant. We investigated if peatland buffer areas significantly contribute to emissions of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) from forested catchments. We used an artificial addition of 150 kg NH(4)NO(3) per buffer area (146-750 kg NH(4)NO(3) ha(-1)) and quantified the N(2)O emission before and after the N loading. We conducted an extensive study with eight sampling positions and sampling interval of 1-5 weeks at five buffer areas| and an intensive study using 14 sampling positions and sampling frequency of 1-7 days at one area. In the extensive study| the average fluxes were -0.33-0.14 mg N(2)O m(-2) d(-1) before the N addition| and after the N addition they were 0.99-5.30 mg N(2)O m(-2) d(-1). During the intensive study| overall loss of N(2)O was estimated to be 0.74 kg N(2)O or 0.15 kg N(2)O ha(-1). Considering the impacts on stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming| the study indicated low N(2)O emissions even when N loading increased to higher level than is likely to occur under actual conditions in forested catchments. 12854,2011,2,4,Natural radioactive isotopes in glacier meltwater studies,Glaciers are decaying due to global warming. Svalbard is a very sensitive area within the European High Arctic and studies on glacier changes and evolutions are representative for the Arctic. The present work aims glaciers at Spitsbergen; we investigated meltwater supplied by glacierized basins in introducing radioactive isotope measurements in combination with classical parameters. Among the natural radioactive elements| the most promising is the noble gas radon| more precisely the isotope Rn-222| with a short half life of 3.8 days and the possibility of automated continuous measurements. Measurements of radon in glacier meltwater showed surprisingly high concentrations thus enabling investigations with radon as valuable tracer. Only meltwater in contact with rock or sediments has the possibility to be charged with radon. Varying radon concentrations can be linked to changes in mixing meltwater from different origins| roughly the surface of glaciers (supraglacial)| within (englacial) and under ice (subglacial). We are able to collect information on the glacier drainage system and its evolution over time and thus contribute to the study of glacier dynamics. Results from three sampling periods on Werenskioldbreen glacier| covering different glaciological seasons| are presented and discussed in this study. The potential results of further continuous measurements will give supplementary information on drainage footpaths and the style and system of the draining of glaciers. Our study intends also a better understanding of the response of glaciers to environmental parameters and| on a longer term| to make a contribution to climate change studies. 11674,2011,2,2,Near-term increase in frequency of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2 degrees C global warming target,Given current international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2A degrees C| relative to the pre-industrial era| we seek to determine the impact such a temperature increase might have upon the frequency of seasonal-mean temperature extremes; further we seek to determine what global-mean temperature increase would prevent extreme temperature values from becoming the norm. Results indicate that given a 2A degrees C global mean temperature increase it is expected that for 70-80% of the land surface maximum seasonal-mean temperatures will exceed historical extremes (as determined from the 95th percentile threshold value over the second half of the 20th Century) in at least half of all years| i.e. the current historical extreme values will effectively become the norm. Many regions of the globe-including much of Africa| the southeastern and central portions of Asia| Indonesia| and the Amazon-will reach this point given the "committed" future global-mean temperature increase of 0.6A degrees C (1.4A degrees C relative to the pre-industrial era) and 50% of the land surface will reach it given a future global-mean temperature increase of between 0.8 and 0.95A degrees C (1.6-1.75A degrees C relative to the pre-industrial era). These results suggest substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity| even if the global-mean temperature increase remains below the 2A degrees C target. 12359,2011,2,2,Negative effects of stress-resistant drift algae and high temperature on a small ephemeral seagrass species,Seagrasses are threatened by multiple anthropogenic stressors| such as accumulating drift algae and increasing temperatures (associated with eutrophication and global warming| respectively). However| few seagrass experiments have examined whether exposure to multiple stressors causes antagonistic| additive| or synergistic effects| and this has limited our ability to predict the future health status of seagrass beds. We conducted a laboratory experiment to test whether abundance of Gracilaria comosa (3 levels; 0| 1.2| and 3.4 kg WW m(-2))| an algae that is resistant to wide environmental fluctuations (e.g. light| temperature| salinity| and oxygen levels)| has negative effects on the small ephemeral seagrass| Halophila ovalis and whether the effects are exacerbated by high temperature (3 levels; 20| 25| and 30A degrees C). We found an additive negative effect of the two stressors when tested simultaneously on 14 seagrass performance measures| with most data variability explained by the drift algae. For the individual plant performance measures (above- and below-ground growth and mortality| leaf area| internode distance| and root length and root volume)| we found 5 additive effects| 4 synergistic effects| and 5 effects that were significant only for drift algae. We also documented a significant additive effect of drift algae and temperature on dissolved porewater sulphide (DS). A follow-up correlation analysis between DS and the 14 plant performance measures revealed significant or near-significant linear correlations on 9 of these responses (above- and below-ground growth| leaf area and weight| leaf mortality| and internode distance). In summary| we showed (a) that a stress-resistant drift algae can have strong negative effects on a small ephemeral seagrass| (b) this negative effect can increase both additively and synergistically with increasing temperature depending on performance measure| and (c) the negative effects may be mediated by a build-up of porewater DS. An implication of our findings is that resource managers aiming to preserve healthy seagrass beds in an almost certain future warmer world should increase efforts to keep drift algae populations low. 12291,2011,5,4,Neoproterozoic loess and limits to snowball Earth,Neoproterozoic tillites overlain by limestones and dolostones (cap carbonates) have been interpreted as evidence of abrupt climate change from glaciers to tropical seas on the assumption that cap carbonates were marine. This assumption is here challenged by evidence for loess deposition of the Nuccaleena Formation of South Australia from granulometry (angular| randomly oriented| silt| modal diameter 7 phi) and sedimentary structures (climbing-translatent cross-stratification| linear dunes). In addition| a variety of palaeosols in the Nuccaleena Formation have red clayey horizons| replacive micritization| expansion cracks| and thufur mounds| as well as low carbon and oxygen isotope values| high strontium isotope ratios| and geochemical evidence of leaching and clay formation. This cap carbonate has no definitively marine features| and is here interpreted as periglacial loess overlying the fluvioglacial-intertidal Elatina Formation| so it is not a record of abrupt global warming from snowball Earth. Other cap carbonates around the world differ in various ways| and may have formed in different depositional environments| but could profitably be reconsidered from the new perspective of the loess depositional model proposed here. 12471,2011,2,4,Nest site selection and nesting biology of Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonicus in Japan,Capsule The population of Rock Ptarmigan in Japan have the southernmost distribution of Rock Ptarmigan in the world; they nest in moderately open sites which facilitate the detection of predators. Aims To assess nest site selection of this population of Rock Ptarmigan and to compare the data with those for other populations of this species. Methods Nest site characteristics were recorded and compared with random sites. Nest success| clutch size| and hatching rate were determined. Results All nests (n = 24) were found in Pinus pumila shrubs. Vegetation height at nests was significantly lower than at random sites. While the nests were well concealed| one direction of lateral cover was moderately open and its cover was significantly less than at random sites. Such nest placements may provide a good view from the nests| facilitating the detection of predators. Nesting success was 75.3% in 2006 and 61.1% in 2007| which is higher than reported in other populations of this species. Conclusion Rock Ptarmigan selected P. pumila shrubs with moderately open sites for their nests. We propose that these nest characteristics are related to nesting predation. Selection of nesting sites may depend on several factors. We suggest how this information can be used to guide conservation measures for this and perhaps other populations of Rock Ptarmigan. The population in Japan are at risk of extinction due to global warming and/or habitat loss. 12013,2011,4,4,Net air-sea surface heat flux during 1984-2004 over the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans (10A degrees N-50A degrees N): annual mean climatology and trend,Using the Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes dataset (and also the National Oceanography Centre Southampton Flux Dataset v2.0)| we examined both the annual mean climatology and trend of net air-sea surface heat flux (Q (net)) for 1984-2004 over the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans (10A degrees N-50A degrees N). The annual mean Q (net) climatology shows that oceans obtain the positive Q (net) over much of the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. Exceptions are the regions of western boundary currents (WBCs) including the Kuroshio and its extension off Japan and the Gulf Stream off the USA and its extension| where oceans release lots of heat into the atmosphere| mainly ascribed to the large surface turbulent heat loss. The statistically significant negative Q (net) trends occurred in the WBCs| while the statistically significant positive Q (net) trends appeared in the central basins of Northern Subtropical Oceans (CNSOs) including the central basin of Northern Subtropical Pacific and the central basin of Northern Subtropical Atlantic. These indentified Q (net) trends| which are independent of both El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki but closely related to global warming forcing| are predominately due to the statistically significant surface latent heat (LH) trends. Over the WBCs| the positive LH trends are mainly induced by the sea surface temperature increasing| indicating the ocean forcing upon overlying atmosphere. In contrast| over the CNSOs| the negative LH trends are mainly caused by the near-surface air specific humidity increasing| indicative of an oceanic response to overlying atmospheric forcing. 12039,2011,3,4,Net annual global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in Chinese double rice-cropping systems: a 3-year field measurement in long-term fertilizer experiments,The impact of agricultural management on global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) is not well documented. A long-term fertilizer experiment in Chinese double rice-cropping systems initiated in 1990 was used in this study to gain an insight into a complete greenhouse gas accounting of GWP and GHGI. The six fertilizer treatments included inorganic fertilizer [nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer (NP)| nitrogen and potassium fertilizer (NK)| and balanced inorganic fertilizer (NPK)]| combined inorganic/organic fertilizers at full and reduced rate (FOM and ROM)| and no fertilizer application as a control. Methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) fluxes were measured using static chamber method from November 2006 through October 2009| and the net ecosystem carbon balance was estimated by the changes in topsoil (0-20 cm) organic carbon (SOC) density over the 10-year period 1999-2009. Long-term fertilizer application significantly increased grain yields| except for no difference between the NK and control plots. Annual topsoil SOC sequestration rate was estimated to be 0.96 t C ha-1 yr-1 for the control and 1.01-1.43 t C ha-1 yr-1 for the fertilizer plots. Long-term inorganic fertilizer application tended to increase CH(4) emissions during the flooded rice season and significantly increased N(2)O emissions from drained soils during the nonrice season. Annual mean CH(4) emissions ranged from 621 kg CH(4) ha-1 for the control to 1175 kg CH(4) ha-1 for the FOM plots| 63-83% of which derived from the late-rice season. Annual N(2)O emission averaged 1.15-4.11 kg N(2)O-N ha-1 in the double rice-cropping systems. Compared with the control| inorganic fertilizer application slightly increased the net annual GWPs| while they were remarkably increased by combined inorganic/organic fertilizer application. The GHGI was lowest for the NP and NPK plots and highest for the FOM and ROM plots. The results of this study suggest that agricultural economic viability and GHGs mitigation can be simultaneously achieved by balanced fertilizer application. 12057,2011,3,3,Net exchanges of CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O between China's terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere and their contributions to global climate warming,China's terrestrial ecosystems have been recognized as an atmospheric CO(2) sink; however| it is uncertain whether this sink can alleviate global warming given the fluxes of CH(4) and N(2)O. In this study| we used a process-based ecosystem model driven by multiple environmental factors to examine the net warming potential resulting from net exchanges of CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O between China's terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere during 1961-2005. In the past 45 years| China's terrestrial ecosystems were found to sequestrate CO(2) at a rate of 179.3 Tg C yr(-1) with a 95% confidence range of (62.0 Tg C yr(-1)| 264.9 Tg C yr(-1)) while emitting CH(4) and N(2)O at rates of 8.3 Tg C yr(-1) with a 95% confidence range of (3.3 Tg C yr(-1)| 12.4 Tg C yr(-1)) and 0.6 Tg N yr(-1) with a 95% confidence range of (0.2 Tg N yr(-1)| 1.1 Tg N yr(-1))| respectively. When translated into global warming potential| it is highly possible that China's terrestrial ecosystems mitigated global climate warming at a rate of 96.9 Tg CO(2)eq yr(-1) (1 Tg = 10(12) g)| substantially varying from a source of 766.8 Tg CO(2)eq yr(-1) in 1997 to a sink of 705.2 Tg CO(2)eq yr(-1) in 2002. The southeast and northeast of China slightly contributed to global climate warming; while the northwest| north| and southwest of China imposed cooling effects on the climate system. Paddy land| followed by natural wetland and dry cropland| was the largest contributor to national warming potential; forest| followed by woodland and grassland| played the most significant role in alleviating climate warming. Our simulated results indicate that CH(4) and N(2)O emissions offset approximately 84.8% of terrestrial CO(2) sink in China during 1961-2005. This study suggests that the relieving effects of China's terrestrial ecosystems on climate warming through sequestering CO(2) might be gradually offset by increasing N(2)O emission| in combination with CH(4) emission. 3248,2011,2,4,New highland distribution records of multiple Anopheles species in the Ecuadorian Andes,Background: Several recent climate change reviews have stressed the possibility of some malaria vectors occupying regions of higher altitudes than previously recorded. Indeed| highland malaria has been observed in several African nations| possibly attributable to changes in land use| vector control and local climate. This study attempts to expand the current knowledge of the distribution of common Anopheles species in Ecuador| with particular attention to highland regions (> 500 m) of the Andes. Methods: Extensive field collections of larvae were undertaken in 2008| 2009 and 2010 throughout all regions of Ecuador (except the lower-altitude Amazonian plain) and compared to historical distribution maps reproduced from the 1940s. Larvae were identified using both a morphological key and sequencing of the 800 bp region of the CO1 mitochondrial gene. In addition| spatial statistics (Getis-Ord Hotspot Analysis: Gi*) were used to determine high and low-density clusters of each species in Ecuador. Results: Distributions have been updated for five species of Anopheles in Ecuador: Anopheles albimanus| Anopheles pseudopunctipennis| Anopheles punctimacula| Anopheles eiseni and Anopheles oswaldoi s.l.. Historical maps indicate that An. pseudopunctipennis used to be widespread in highland Andean valleys| while other species were completely restricted to lowland areas. By comparison| updated maps for the other four collected species show higher maximum elevations and/or more widespread distributions in highland regions than previously recorded. Gi* analysis determined some highland hot spots for An. albimanus| but only cold spots for all other species. Conclusions: This study documents the establishment of multiple anopheline species in high altitude regions of Ecuador| often in areas where malaria eradication programs are not focused. 3187,2011,2,4,New microsatellite markers for the assessment of fine-scale dispersal patterns in the endangered montane caddisfly Drusus discolor,We present a panel of variable microsatellite markers for the montane caddisfly Drusus discolor| a rare species that we use as a model for the assessment of climate change effects on the montane freshwater community. 454 sequencing technology was used in order to generate random sequence data. Of a total of 2|648 microsatellite-carrying fragments identified| 11 variable| reproducible markers were generated and tested on 41 individuals from two populations. Allelic diversity ranged from 3 to 10 alleles and heterozygosity values varied from 0 to 0.89 (H (O)) and 0.12 to 0.86 (H (E)). A cross-species test on four caddisfly species showed that a subset of markers amplifies in related taxa. 11797,2011,2,3,New threats of an old enemy: The distribution of the shipworm Teredo navalis L. (Bivalvia: Teredinidae) related to climate change in the Port of Rotterdam area| the Netherlands,The effects of four climate change scenarios for the Netherlands on the distribution of the shipworm upstream of the Rhine-Meuse estuary are described. Global warming will cause dry and warmer summers and decreased river discharges. This will extend the salinity gradient upstream in summer and fall and may lead to attacks on wooden structures by the shipworm. Scenarios including one or two degree temperature increases by 2050 compared to 1990 with a weak change in the air circulation over Europe will lead to an increased chance of shipworm damage upstream from once in 36 years to once in 27 or 22 years| respectively; however| under a strong change in air circulation| the chance of shipworm damage increases to once in 6 or 3 years| respectively. The upstream expansion of the distribution of the shipworm will also be manifested in other northwest European estuaries and will be even stronger in southern Europe. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3327,2011,2,4,Nineteen years of field data on ant communities (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): What can we learn?,For 19 consecutive years I sampled litter-ant communities in three temperate deciduous forests in the northeastern USA (West Virginia| New York| Vermont). Cumulative species richness per site ranged from 13 to 16 species but had not reached a sampling asymptote at the southern-most site (West Virginia). Nest density varied seasonally| but was consistently higher in the two northern sites (New York and Vermont). In the Vermont site| nest density declined significantly over the 19 years| probably because of ongoing forest succession; studies of ant community shifts to infer large-scale phenomena such as global climate change must separate out such background temporal variation. We detected patchiness of ant nests at three spatial scales. The smallest-scale reflected colony subdivision (polydomy) whereas medium-scale and large-scale patchiness reflected habitat heterogeneity; differences between sites indicated effects at a larger regional scale as well. There was little evidence that competition between species affected co-occurrence or nest spacing. While resource competition and behavioral interactions predominate in many ant assemblages| their effects appear to be weak in temperate litter-ant assemblages.
11787,2011,3,4,Nitrogen cycle of effluent-irrigated energy crop plantations: From wastewater treatment to thermo-chemical conversion processes,This paper reviews nitrogen (N) cycle of effluent-irrigated energy crop plantations| starting from wastewater treatment to thermo-chemical conversion processes. In wastewater| N compounds contribute to eutrophication and toxicity in water cycle. Removal of N via vegetative filters and specifically in short-rotation energy plantations| is a relatively new approach to managing nitrogenous effluents. Though combustion of energy crops is in principle carbon neutral| in practice| N content may contribute to NOx emissions with significant global warming potential. Intermediate pyrolysis produces advanced fuels while reducing such emissions. By operating at intermediate temperature (500 degrees C)| it retains most N in char as pyrrolic-N| pyridinic-N| quaternary-N and amines. In addition| biochar provides long-term sequestration of carbon in soils.
11613,2011,3,3,Nitrogen fertilization of switchgrass increases biomass yield and improves net greenhouse gas balance in northern Michigan| USA,Nitrogen (N) fertilization can increase bioenergy crop production; however| fertilizer production and application can contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions| potentially undermining the GHG benefits of bioenergy crops. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of N fertilization on GHG emissions and biomass production of switchgrass bioenergy crop| in northern Michigan. Nitrogen fertilization treatments included 0 kg ha(-1) (control)| 56 kg ha(-1) (low) and 112 kg ha(-1) (high) of N applied as urea. Soil fluxes of CO(2)| N(2)O and CH(4) were measured every two weeks using static chambers. Indirect GHG emissions associated with field activities| manufacturing and transport of fertilizer and pesticides were derived from the literature. Switchgrass aboveground biomass yield was evaluated at the end of the growing season. Nitrogen fertilization contributed little to soil GHG emissions; relative to the control| there were additional global warming potential of 0.7 Mg ha(-1) y(-1) and 1.5 Mg ha(-1) y(-1) as CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)eq)| calculated using the IPCC values| in the low and high N fertilization treatments| respectively. However| N fertilization greatly stimulated CO(2) uptake by switchgrass| resulting in 1.5- and 2.5-fold increases in biomass yield in the low and high N fertilization treatments| respectively. Nitrogen amendments improved the net GHG benefits by 2.6 Mg ha(-1) y(-1) and 9.4 Mg ha(-1) y(-1) as CO(2)eq relative to the control. Results suggest that N fertilization of switchgrass in this region could reduce (15-50%) the land base needed for bioenergy production and decrease pressure on land for food and forage crop production. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12107,2011,3,3,Nitrogen losses from two grassland soils with different fungal biomass,Nitrogen losses from agricultural grasslands cause eutrophication of ground- and surface water and contribute to global warming and atmospheric pollution. It is widely assumed that soils with a higher fungal biomass have lower N losses| but this relationship has never been experimentally confirmed. With the increased interest in soil-based ecosystem services and sustainable management of soils| such a relationship would be relevant for agricultural management. Here we present a first attempt to test this relationship experimentally. We used intact soil columns from two plots from a field experiment that had consistent differences in fungal biomass (68 +/- 8 vs. 111 +/- 9 mu g C g(-1)) as a result of different fertilizer history (80 vs. 40 kg N ha(-1) y(-1) as farm yard manure)| while other soil properties were very similar. We performed two greenhouse experiments: in the main experiment the columns received either mineral fertilizer N or no N (control). We measured N leaching| N(2)O emission and denitrification from the columns during 4 weeks| after which we analyzed fungal and bacterial biomass and soil N pools. In the additional (15)N experiment we traced added N in leachates| soil| plants and microbial biomass. We found that in the main experiment. N(2)O emission and denitrification were lower in the high fungal biomass soil| irrespective of the addition of fertilizer N. Higher (15)N recovery in the high fungal biomass soil also indicated lower N losses through dentrification. In the main experiment. N leaching after fertilizer addition showed a 3-fold increase compared to the control in low fungal biomass soil (11.9 +/- 1.0 and 3.9 +/- 1.0 kg N ha(-1). respectively)| but did not increase in high fungal biomass soil (6.4 +/- 0.9 after N addition vs. 4.5 +/- 0.8 kg N ha(-1) in the control). Thus| in the high fungal biomass soil more N was immobilized. However| the (15)N experiment did not confirm these results: N leaching was higher in high fungal biomass soil| even though this soil showed higher immobilization of (15)N into microbial biomass. However| only 3% of total (15)N was found in the microbial biomass 2 weeks after the mineral fertilization. Most of the recovered (15)N was found in plants (approximately 25%) and soil organic matter (approximately 15%)| and these amounts did not differ between the high and the low fungal biomass soil. Our main experiment confirmed the assumption of lower N losses in a soil with higher fungal biomass. The additional (15)N experiment showed that higher fungal biomass is probably not the direct cause of higher N retention| but rather the result of low nitrogen availability. Both experiments confirmed that higher fungal biomass can be considered as an indicator of higher nitrogen retention in soils. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3214,2011,4,4,NMR velocimetry with 13-interval stimulated echo multi-slice imaging in natural porous media under low flow rates,Characterization and quantification of root water uptake processes play a key role in understanding and managing the effects of global climate change on agricultural production and ecosystem dynamics. Part of this understanding is related to the flow of water towards plant roots in soils. In this study we demonstrate for the first time| to our knowledge| that fluid flow in the voids of the pore space of a model soil system (natural sand) can be detected and mapped to an NMR image for mean flows as low as 0.06 mm/s even under the influence of internal magnetic field gradients. To accomplish this we combined multi-slice imaging with a 13-interval pulse sequence to the NMR pulse sequence 13-interval stimulated echo multi-slice imaging (13-interval STEMSI). The result is a largely reduced influence of the internal magnetic field gradients| leading to an improved signal-to-noise ratio which in turn enables one to acquire velocity maps where conventional stimulated echo methods fail. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 12216,2011,2,3,No matter how it is measured| income declines with global warming,The contemporaneous relationship between temperature and income is important because it enables economists to estimate the economic impact of global warming without assuming a structural model. Until recently| empirical evidence generally suggests that there is a negative relationship between temperature and income| and| therefore| global warming has an adverse impact on economic activity. However| Nordhaus (2006) argues that the temperature-income relationship depends on how income is measured. We show in this paper that the results of Nordhaus (2006) may be due to an omitted-variable problem. Based on a well-motivated temperature-income model| we find that the relationship between temperature and income is not dependent on income measurement. Our regression results show that the adverse impact of an increase of 1 C in temperature can be as much as a 3% decrease in total income for the G-7 nations. Therefore| our results suggest an aggressive climate mitigation policy. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12639,2011,5,2,Nonparametric testing of variability and trend in some climatic records,We use the method of surrogates to test the structure of variability in nine paleoclimate reconstructions and to compare temperature trends with that of the modern temperature record in the Northern hemisphere. Three different algorithms are used to generate surrogate time series: the iterated amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (IAAFT)| the statically transformed autoregressive process (STAP) and a modification of STAP| which generates surrogates of arbitrary length (STAPL). We assessed through formal statistical tests that the surrogates preserve the LTP structure of the reconstructed time series of global temperature| using different measures (Hurst exponent| DFA exponent and R/S analysis). Then using the same surrogates we tested for the presence of a linear trend at least as great as the trend of the modern time series against the null hypothesis that the observed trend is only due to LTP. The null hypothesis could be rejected at the lowest possible significance level for all but two of the reconstructions. The result from the non-parametric test adds further statistical evidence to that of earlier parametric studies that the observed global warming trend in the modern time series cannot be adequately explained by natural agents of variability. 12604,2011,2,4,Nonpoint Source Pollution,This article presents a comprehensive review of research advances in 2010 on nonpoint source (NPS) water pollution caused by various known (urban stormwater| highway stormwater| agricultural runoff| and atmospheric deposition) and unknown sources. Progresses in modeling approaches| total maximum daily load (TMDL) calculations| low impact development (LID) technologies and best management practices (BMPs) for NPS pollution controls| as well as their socioeconomic impacts are reviewed. In addition| impacts of global climate change on NPS pollution are also summarized. 12817,2011,4,4,Nullifying the climate null hypothesis,This essay addresses Trenberth's statement that 'Given that global warming is "unequivocal"| and is "very likely" due to human activities to quote the 2007 IPCC report| the null hypothesis should now be reversed| thereby placing the burden of proof on showing that there is no human influence.' We examine how the concept of a null hypothesis is being used implicitly and explicitly in the scientific and policy debate on climate change| in the context of scientific hypothesis testing| as a framework for 'burden of proof' arguments and policy deliberations| and metaphorically in the context of a polemic. It is argued that the statement of a null hypothesis is not particularly useful in the broader context of the scientific inferences surrounding the topic of the attribution of climate change and also policy decisions. (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 12212,2011,3,3,Numerical analysis of wave-induced fluid flow effects on seismic data: Application to monitoring of CO(2) storage at the Sleipner field,In this work we analyze how patchy distributions of CO(2) and brine within sand reservoirs may lead to significant attenuation and velocity dispersion effects| which in turn may have a profound impact on surface seismic data. The ultimate goal of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of these processes within the framework of the seismic monitoring of CO(2) sequestration| a key strategy to mitigate global warming. We first carry out a Monte Carlo analysis to study the statistical behavior of attenuation and velocity dispersion of compressional waves traveling through rocks with properties similar to those at the Utsira Sand| Sleipner field| containing quasi-fractal patchy distributions of CO(2) and brine. These results show that the mean patch size and CO(2) saturation play key roles in the observed wave-induced fluid flow effects. The latter can be remarkably important when CO(2) concentrations are low and mean patch sizes are relatively large. To analyze these effects on the corresponding surface seismic data| we perform numerical simulations of wave propagation considering reservoir models and CO(2) accumulation patterns similar to the CO(2) injection site in the Sleipner field. These numerical experiments suggest that wave-induced fluid flow effects may produce changes in the reservoir's seismic response| modifying significantly the main seismic attributes usually employed in the characterization of these environments. Consequently| the determination of the nature of the fluid distributions as well as the proper modeling of the seismic data constitute important aspects that should not be ignored in the seismic monitoring of CO(2) sequestration problems. 12240,2011,2,4,Numerical Investigation on the Influence of Tide on Cyclic Seaward Bar Migration,The influences of tide and water level rise on the cyclic medium-term seaward bar migration were examined using a one-dimensional numerical model of beach profile change| in which the cross-shore sediment transport rate was assumed to consist of four contributions due to sediment suspension and undertow| velocity skewness| velocity atiltness and beach slope. The model was calibrated with a year-long dataset of beach profiles obtained at the Hasaki coast of Japan in 1989| when the duration of medium-term seaward bar migration was approximately 1 year. The comparison between bar crest positions predicted with and without the tide at Hasaki during a two-year period including the calibration period of 1989 and the following year shows that the bar migrated further seaward without the tide than with the tide. The comparison between bar crest positions during the two-year period predicted with the tide and the water levels 0.5 m higher indicates that the bar crest positions were located further seaward with the higher water levels than with the tide in 1989. The difference between cyclic medium-term seaward bar migrations with and without the tide| and that with the tide and the higher water levels| are attributed to wave breaking on and seaward of the bar crests. 11804,2011,2,3,Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent| unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries,Given the severe impacts of extreme heat on natural and human systems| we attempt to quantify the likelihood that rising greenhouse gas concentrations will result in a new| permanent heat regime in which the coolest warm-season of the 21st century is hotter than the hottest warm-season of the late 20th century. Our analyses of global climate model experiments and observational data reveal that many areas of the globe are likely to permanently move into such a climate space over the next four decades| should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase. In contrast to the common perception that high-latitude areas face the most accelerated response to global warming| our results demonstrate that in fact tropical areas exhibit the most immediate and robust emergence of unprecedented heat| with many tropical areas exhibiting a 50% likelihood of permanently moving into a novel seasonal heat regime in the next two decades. We also find that global climate models are able to capture the observed intensification of seasonal hot conditions| increasing confidence in the projection of imminent| permanent emergence of unprecedented heat. 12808,2011,4,4,Observational constraints of the past CO2 concentration on the results of carbon cycle models,A paper by Zecca and Chiari has followed the work of Nel and Cooper (both in Energy Policy)| dealing with the same issue of evaluating the future atmospheric CO2 concentration under the constraints imposed by fossil-fuels depletion. The two papers suggest the need of revising the IPCC SRES emission scenarios. In this number| further works by Ward and Nel and by Zecca and Chiari aim at improving the outcomes of the carbon cycle models used for the calculation of the CO2 concentration starting from the emission values. Here| methodological differences between the two groups are discussed. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3472,2011,2,4,Observational Evidence for Poleward Expansion of the Hadley Circulation,How the Hadley circulation changes in response to global climate change and how its change impacts upon regional and global climates has generated a. lot of interest in the literature in the past few years. In this paper| consistent and statistically significant poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation in the past few decades is demonstrated| using independent observational datasets as proxy measures of the Hadley circulation. Both observational outgoing longwave radiation and precipitation datasets show an annual average total poleward expansion of the Hadley cells of about 3.6 degrees latitude. Sea level pressure from observational and reanalysis datasets show smaller magnitudes of poleward expansion| of about 1.2 degrees latitude. Ensemble general circulation model simulations forced by observed time-varying sea surface temperatures were found to generate a total poleward expansion of about 1.23 degrees latitude. Possible mechanisms behind the changes in the horizontal extent of the Hadley circulation are discussed. 12612,2011,2,4,Observed decreases in oxygen content of the global ocean,Comparing the high-quality oxygen climatology from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment to earlier data we reveal near-global decreases in oxygen levels in the upper ocean between the 1970s and the 1990s. This globally averaged oxygen decrease is -0.93 +/- 0.23 mu mol l(-1)| which is equivalent to annual oxygen losses of -0.55 +/- 0.13 x 10(14) mol yr(-1) (100-1000 m). The strongest decreases in oxygen occur in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres| near regions where there is strong water renewal and exchange between the ocean interior and surface waters. Approximately 15% of global oxygen decrease can be explained by a warmer mixed-layer reducing the capacity of water to store oxygen| while the remainder is consistent with an overall decrease in the exchange between surface waters and the ocean interior. Here we suggest that this reduction in water mass renewal rates on a global scale is a consequence of increased stratification caused by warmer surface waters. These observations support climate model simulations of oxygen change under global warming scenarios. Citation: Helm| K. P.| N. L. Bindoff| and J. A. Church (2011)| Observed decreases in oxygen content of the global ocean| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L23602| doi: 10.1029/2011GL049513. 3191,2011,2,4,Observing copepods through a genomic lens,Background: Copepods outnumber every other multicellular animal group. They are critical components of the world's freshwater and marine ecosystems| sensitive indicators of local and global climate change| key ecosystem service providers| parasites and predators of economically important aquatic animals and potential vectors of waterborne disease. Copepods sustain the world fisheries that nourish and support human populations. Although genomic tools have transformed many areas of biological and biomedical research| their power to elucidate aspects of the biology| behavior and ecology of copepods has only recently begun to be exploited. Discussion: The extraordinary biological and ecological diversity of the subclass Copepoda provides both unique advantages for addressing key problems in aquatic systems and formidable challenges for developing a focused genomics strategy. This article provides an overview of genomic studies of copepods and discusses strategies for using genomics tools to address key questions at levels extending from individuals to ecosystems. Genomics can| for instance| help to decipher patterns of genome evolution such as those that occur during transitions from free living to symbiotic and parasitic lifestyles and can assist in the identification of genetic mechanisms and accompanying physiological changes associated with adaptation to new or physiologically challenging environments. The adaptive significance of the diversity in genome size and unique mechanisms of genome reorganization during development could similarly be explored. Genome-wide and EST studies of parasitic copepods of salmon and large EST studies of selected free-living copepods have demonstrated the potential utility of modern genomics approaches for the study of copepods and have generated resources such as EST libraries| shotgun genome sequences| BAC libraries| genome maps and inbred lines that will be invaluable in assisting further efforts to provide genomics tools for copepods. Summary: Genomics research on copepods is needed to extend our exploration and characterization of their fundamental biological traits| so that we can better understand how copepods function and interact in diverse environments. Availability of large scale genomics resources will also open doors to a wide range of systems biology type studies that view the organism as the fundamental system in which to address key questions in ecology and evolution. 12549,2011,5,4,Occurrence of palygorskite and sepiolite in upper Paleocene-middle Eocene marine deep sediments of the Lagonegro Basin (Southern Apennines-Italy): Paleoenvironmental and provenance inferences,A mineralogical and geochemical study of clay lithologies and a biostratigraphic analysis of the carbonates from the deep-sea Lagonegro Basin (Southern Apennines Italy) have been carried out to deduce in general the provenance of clay sediments and their paleoenvironmental conditions and particular to recognize the signature of the Paleocene-Eocene climatic global warming. The analysed succession comprising a wide stratigraphic interval of the Sannio Unit| spanning between Albian to the upper Oligocene-lower Miocene| is exposed near Accettura and Stigliano villages. Eighteen clay samples were analysed by XRD| XRF| SEM| TG-DTA. Their age was framed by biostratigraphic analyses carried out on carbonate sediments. Mineral assemblage of the clay sediments includes quartz| carbonates (calcite and dolomite)| feldspars (plagioclase and k-feldspars)| hematite| randomly illite/smectite mixed layers with a low illite percentage| kaolinite| discrete illite-muscovite| chlorite| palygorskite and sepiolite. The low illite percentage in randomly illite/smectite mixed layers indicates low diagenetic conditions for the studied successions. These features are unique for the Cretaceous-Tertiary successions of the Lagonegro domain and are particularly significant for the preservation of the native mineralogical assemblage useful to determine the provenance and paleoenvironmental conditions of the clayey sediments. Palygorskite and sepiolite are concentrated in the upper Paleocene-middle Eocene stratigraphic interval and particularly in the upper part of the early Eocene lower part of the middle Eocene (biozone of Blow P 9-12). Clay sediments rich in palygorskite and sepiolite show a higher P(2)O(5) amount and a lower kaolinite percentage| compatible with warm and arid climatic conditions typical of the global warming event well recorded in the southern tethyan margin. Likely palygorskite and sepiolite formed in lagoonal environment in nearby carbonate platform margins and then they were transported into the Lagonegro Basin as indicated by the well developed habitus of palygorskite. During the Paleogene the Lagonegro Basin and the nearby carbonate platforms represented a key sector the southern paleodomains of the Tethys. The discovery of these minerals gives a contribution to the reconstruction paleoenvironmental conditions of the Tethian paleo-margin during the early-middle Eocene. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V. 12250,2011,2,2,Ocean Heat Transport as a Cause for Model Uncertainty in Projected Arctic Warming,The Arctic climate is governed by complex interactions and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere| ocean| and solar radiation. One of its characteristic features| the Arctic sea ice| is very vulnerable to anthropogenically caused warming. Production and melting of sea ice is influenced by several physical processes. The authors show that the northward ocean heat transport is an important factor in the simulation of the sea ice extent in the current general circulation models. Those models that transport more energy to the Arctic show a stronger future warming| in the Arctic as well as globally. Larger heat transport to the Arctic| in particular in the Barents Sea| reduces the sea ice cover in this area. More radiation is then absorbed during summer months and is radiated back to the atmosphere in winter months. This process leads to an increase in the surface temperature and therefore to a stronger polar amplification. The models that show a larger global warming agree better with the observed sea ice extent in the Arctic. In general| these models also have a higher spatial resolution. These results suggest that higher resolution and greater complexity are beneficial in simulating the processes relevant in the Arctic and that future warming in the high northern latitudes is likely to be near the upper range of model projections| consistent with recent evidence that many climate models underestimate Arctic sea ice decline. 11933,2011,2,4,Ocean warming and acidification; implications for the Arctic brittlestar Ophiocten sericeum,The Arctic Ocean currently has the highest global average pH. However| due to increasing atmospheric CO(2) levels| it will become a region with one of the lowest global pH levels. In addition| Arctic waters will also increase in temperature as a result of global warming. These environmental changes can pose a significant threat for marine species| and in particular true Arctic species that are adapted to the historically cold and relatively stable abiotic conditions of the region. Consequently| we investigated some key physiological responses of brittlestar Ophiocten sericeum| a polar endemic which can dominate benthic infauna| to a temperature increase of 3.5A degrees C (ambient| 5-8.5A degrees C) and CO(2) induced reduction in pH of 0.6 units (pH 7.7) and 1 unit (pH 7.3) below ambient (pH 8.3). Metabolism was upregulated at low pH. Faster arm regeneration stimulated by increased temperature was counteracted by low pH; at pH 7.3 in the high-temperature treatment| the maintenance of calcium carbonate structures in undersaturated conditions resulted in reduction in the rate of arm regeneration| possibly due to accelerated the use of energy reserves. If so| this could result in an energy deficit at times of increased energetic costs associated with responding to the combined factors of high temperature and low pH. 12745,2011,4,4,OH reaction rate constant| IR absorption spectrum| ozone depletion potentials and global warming potentials of 2-bromo-3|3|3-trifluoropropene,The rate constant for the gas phase reaction of OH radicals with BTP (2-bromo-3|3|3-trifluoropropene| CH(2) = CBrCF(3)) was measured using a flash photolysis resonance-fluorescence technique over the temperature range 220 K to 370 K. The Arrhenius plot was found to exhibit noticeable curvature. The temperature dependence of the rate constant can be represented as k(BTP)(220 - 370 K) = 4.85 x 10(-13) x (T/298)(0.92) x exp\{+613/T\} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). For atmospheric modeling purposes| k(BTP)(T) can be equally well represented by the standard Arrhenius expression k(BTP)(220 - 298 K) = 1.05 x 10(-12) x exp\{+381/T\} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The IR absorption cross-sections of BTP were also measured between 450 cm(-1) and 1900 cm(-1). BTP atmospheric lifetime| Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP)| and Global Warming Potential (GWP) were evaluated in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model for land emissions from 30 to 60 degrees N and from 60 degrees S to 60 degrees N. The global| annual average atmospheric lifetime of BTP in the former scenario was 7.0 days| its ODP was 0.0028| and its GWP (100-yr time horizon) was 0.0050; in the latter scenario| the global| annual average BTP lifetime was 4.3 days| ODP was 0.0052| and 100-yr GWP was 0.0028. The short lifetime| low ODP| and low GWP indicate that BTP should have minimal effects on ozone and climate. Little BTP reaches the stratosphere in either emission scenario| but 27% of the ozone loss in the 30 to 60 degrees N scenario and 46% of the ozone loss in the 60 degrees S to 60 N scenario occurs above the tropopause due to Br(y) from BTP. 12021,2011,2,4,Oil exposure in a warmer Arctic: potential impacts on key zooplankton species,Oil exploration activities are rapidly increasing in Arctic marine areas with potentially higher risks of oil spills to the environment. Water temperatures in Arctic marine areas are simultaneously increasing as a result of global warming. Potential effects of a combination of increased water temperature and exposure to the PAH pyrene were investigated on fecal pellet and| egg production and hatching success of two copepod species| Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus glacialis| sampled in Disko Bay| Greenland on 23-25 April 2008. The two species were exposed daily to nominal pyrene concentrations of 0-0.01-0.1-1-10-100 nM at water temperatures of 0.5| 5 and 8 degrees C for 9 and 7 days| respectively. Daily measurements of faecal pellet production| egg production and hatching showed different responses of the two species to the applied stressors. When temperature increased| low concentrations of pyrene caused a decrease in faecal pellet production by C. finmarchicus| whereas C. glacialis faecal pellet production showed no negative response to pyrene exposure when temperatures increased. Pyrene exposure decreased egg production of C. finmarchicus at all temperatures| but the species was more sensitive at 0.5 and 8 degrees C. A lag period of 1 day before egg production began was prolonged with several days when warmer water was combined with pyrene exposure. Egg production by C. glacialis was only negatively affected by pyrene in a dose-dependent manner at 0.5 degrees C. Hatching success in both species was not affected by pyrene| where increased water temperatures led to a higher hatching success. In conclusion| C. glacialis seemed to be the less sensitive of the two species to the stress combination of increased water temperature and pyrene exposure. As a consequence of the differential responses of the two species| their competition can be impaired with a consequent impact on energy transfer between trophic levels. 11575,2011,4,4,On climate reconstruction using bivalves: Three methods to interpret the chemical signature of a shell,To improve our understanding of the climate process and to assess the human impact on current global warming| past climate reconstruction is essential. The chemical composition of a bivalve shell is strongly coupled to environmental variations and therefore ancient shells are potential climate archives. The nonlinear nature of the relation between environmental condition (e.g. the seawater temperature) and proxy composition makes it hard to predict the former from the latter| however. In this paper we compare the ability of three nonlinear system identification methods to reconstruct the ambient temperature from the chemical composition of a shell. The comparison shows that nonlinear multi-proxy approaches are potentially useful tools for climate reconstructions and that manifold based methods result in smoother and more precise temperature reconstruction. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. 11602,2011,4,4,On periodically isotonic climate change,In a view of the past two millennia| is the recent 160-year global warmth an anomaly or a continuation of past climate pattern? In this work| we present two non-parametric chi(2) tests based on the U-test for the isotonic change-point problem proposed in an unpublished work by G. Shen and H. Xu (henceforth abbreviated as SX (unpublished)) and apply them to the global warming data. Our tests do not require any structure assumption on the underlying the deterministic mean process \{mu(t)\} under the periodically isotonic alternative| but accommodate a large class of the models for the random error process. Being more attractive| the two tests obviate estimation of \{mu(t)\} and possess explicit asymptotic distributions for short-range dependence data| and have asymptotic power 1 even under the local alternative. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12320,2011,4,4,On the Elevation Dependency of Present-day Climate and Future Change over Korea from a High Resolution Regional Climate Simulation,This study investigates the elevation dependency of the present-day climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation over Korea. A dynamically downscaled fine-scale climate simulation (20 km) shows reasonable agreement with two types of observations maintained by the Korea Meteorological Administration. The model exactly captures the strong relationship between the elevation and local climatology as seen in observed temperature and precipitation patterns. The behavior of the elevation dependency shown by the present-day climate simulation is also appeared in the climate change signal. The warming amplification is highly correlated with elevation. The warming is more pronounced at higher elevations than at lower elevations during winter| and maximum warming occurs at minimum temperature| showing an asymmetric response between minimum and maximum temperature. A noticeable differential rate of winter warming in response to the elevation can be explained by the snow-albedo feedback. Precipitation and snow changes also show the relevant topographical modulation under global warming. This study clearly demonstrates the importance of a refined topography for improving the accuracy of the local climatology and suitably reflecting the altitudinal distribution. 12002,2011,5,3,On the sensitivity of ocean circulation to arctic freshwater input during the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum,The Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) similar to 55 Ma ago| corresponds to a time characterized by extreme global warming caused by a massive carbon input into the ocean and atmosphere. Climate proxies from sedimentary records suggest that fresh water flow from an ice-free Arctic into the remainder of the global ocean increased due to tectonic changes| enhanced runoff| and thermal expansion. In this study we use the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM-3)| including a carbon cycle model| to examine the sensitivity of the ocean circulation to freshwater outflow from the Arctic Ocean during the PETM| and whether these changes may have contributed to an additional warming during the PETM. Two experiments| the first with freshwater exchange between the Arctic and Pacific Oceans and the second between the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans| are compared with a reference experiment with exchange between the Arctic and Indian Oceans and with independent stratigraphic and geochemical records from the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP). As freshwater is transported from the Arctic into the North Pacific Ocean| stratification is enhanced in the North Pacific due to a significant reduction in surface salinity. As a consequence| intermediate to deep-water sources shift from both hemispheres in the Pacific Ocean to a dominant source in the South Pacific Ocean and an additional source in the northern Tethys Ocean. This simulated shift of deep-water sources during the PETM is in agreement with recent Nd isotope measurements. The circulation patterns in the Pacific are similar to those inferred from stable isotope reconstructions| but contradicting a strong North Atlantic deep-water source during the PETM. Freshwater input into the Pacific Ocean results in a warming of intermediate water masses of >2 degrees C in the North Pacific. When freshwater flow is routed from the Arctic into the Atlantic Ocean| surface density changes are too small to change vertical stratification substantially| contrary to a previous study. In summary| based upon circulation patterns and temperature increases due to freshwater flux through the Bering Strait| Arctic freshwater input into the North Pacific may have contributed to methane hydrate destabilization| an event suggested to have accelerated warming during the PETM. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11813,2011,4,1,On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature,The Earth has warmed at an unprecedented pace in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s (IPCC in Climate change 2007: the scientific basis| Cambridge University Press| Cambridge| 2007). In Wu et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889-14894| 2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (similar to 65-year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08A degrees C per decade since similar to 1980. Here we demonstrate the robustness of those results and discuss their physical links| considering in particular the shape of the secular trend and the spatial patterns associated with the secular trend and the multidecadal variability. The shape of the secular trend and rather globally-uniform spatial pattern associated with it are both suggestive of a response to the buildup of well-mixed greenhouse gases. In contrast| the multidecadal variability tends to be concentrated over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and particularly over the North Atlantic| suggestive of a possible link to low frequency variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Depending upon the assumed importance of the contributions of ocean dynamics and the time-varying aerosol emissions to the observed trends in global-mean surface temperature| we estimate that up to one third of the late twentieth century warming could have been a consequence of natural variability.
3279,2011,3,4,Opening up new strategic options in the pulp and paper industry: Case biorefineries,Due to the global climate change discussion and drastic challenges within the external operational environment| many traditional pulp and paper industry (PPI) companies are forced to search for new value creating business opportunities. This paper discusses this development in the PPI and offers some illustrative examples to demonstrate the vital need for opening up new strategic options. To address these challenges| we launch a dynamic strategic framework for a PPI firm. This dynamic capabilities- and strategic options-based framework comprises of (i) sensing the weak signals of the operational environment| (ii) formulating them as strategic options in order to capture their upside potential| (iii) hedging against the downside risks of the options| (iv) exercising these options in often thin (i.e.| imperfect) intangible knowledge assets markets| and (v) reconfiguring the existing knowledge base and capabilities to sustain competitive advantage obtained. The framework will be illustrated with strategic options possible for the PPI the main focus being on the interface between the PPI and energy industry by means of a forest biorefinery case. (C) 2011 Elsevier By. All rights reserved. 3493,2011,4,4,openModeller: a generic approach to species' potential distribution modelling,Species' potential distribution modelling is the process of building a representation of the fundamental ecological requirements for a species and extrapolating these requirements into a geographical region. The importance of being able to predict the distribution of species is currently highlighted by issues like global climate change| public health problems caused by disease vectors| anthropogenic impacts that can lead to massive species extinction| among other challenges. There are several computational approaches that can be used to generate potential distribution models| each achieving optimal results under different conditions. However| the existing software packages available for this purpose typically implement a single algorithm| and each software package presents a new learning curve to the user. Whenever new software is developed for species' potential distribution modelling| significant duplication of effort results because many feature requirements are shared between the different packages. Additionally| data preparation and comparison between algorithms becomes difficult when using separate software applications| since each application has different data input and output capabilities. This paper describes a generic approach for building a single computing framework capable of handling different data formats and multiple algorithms that can be used in potential distribution modelling. The ideas described in this paper have been implemented in a free and open source software package called openModeller. The main concepts of species' potential distribution modelling are also explained and an example use case illustrates potential distribution maps generated by the framework. 11666,2011,3,4,Operating Cost Analysis of an Annexed Ethanol Distillery in a Rural| Landlocked African Country,Given the high cost of crude oil| uncertainties regarding future reserves as well as the phenomenon of global warming| alternative fuels such as bioethanol need to be developed and deployed. This work presents an economic analysis (operating cost analysis) of one annexed African distillery operating in a landlocked and rural location. Specifically| the study attempts to analyze the impacts that some of the critical factors influencing bioethanol production will have on its viability and also present an analysis of the breakdown of the operating costs of the distillery| in an equation format to enable easier and more rapid use of the data in numerical and economic models| and in the preliminary design and optimization of bioethanol plants. The cost of ethanol production was estimated at $19.57/HL with cost of feedstock (molasses "type C") constituting about one third of the production cost. The study also identified other major| intermediate| and minor input factors| which can provide insights to both the possible barriers to implementation that should be overcome| and on the technological improvement options that should be stimulated by research and development in ethanol industry. Finally| from the operating cost analysis of the annexed distillery| it emerged that the factorial approach to estimation is principally a sound one| with no indication of untypical cost items. Some of the typical cost items do however display ratios to the base cost that are outside of previously reported limits. (C) 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog| 30: 500-515| 2011 3224,2011,2,4,Optical diagnostic test of stress conditions of aquatic organisms,Global climate change has become a dire reality and its impact is expected to rise dramatically in the near future. Combined with the day-to-day human activities the climatic changes heavily affect the environment. In particular| a global temperature increase accompanied by a number of anthropogenic chemicals falling within the freshwater ecosystem results in a dramatic enhancement of the overall stress for most aquatic organisms. This leads to a significant shift in the species inventory and potential breakdown of the water ecosystem with severe consequences for local economies and water supply. In order to understand and predict the influence of climatic changes on the physiological and biochemical processes that take place in living aquatic organisms we explore the application of optical spectroscopy for monitoring and quantitative assessment of antioxidant enzymes activity in benthic amphipods of Lake Baikal. We demonstrate that the changes of the enzymes activity in Baikal amphipods undergoing thermal and/or hypoxia stress can be observed and documented by UV and optical spectroscopy both in vivo and in vitro. 12279,2011,3,3,Optimal utilization of waste-to-energy in an LCA perspective,Energy production from two types of municipal solid waste was evaluated using life cycle assessment (LCA): (1) mixed high calorific waste suitable for production of solid recovered fuels (SRF) and (2) source separated organic waste. For SRF| co-combustion was compared with mass burn incineration. For organic waste| anaerobic digestion (AD) was compared with mass burn incineration. In the case of mass burn incineration| incineration with and without energy recovery was modelled. Biogas produced from anaerobic digestion was evaluated for use both as transportation fuel and for heat and power production. All relevant consequences for energy and resource consumptions| emissions to air| water and soil| upstream processes and downstream processes were included in the LCA. Energy substitutions were considered with respect to two different energy systems: a present-day Danish system based on fossil fuels and a potential future system based on 100% renewable energy. It was found that mass burn incineration of SRF with energy recovery provided savings in all impact categories| but co-combustion was better with respect to Global Warming (GW). If all heat from incineration could be utilized| however| the two alternatives were comparable for SRF. For organic waste| mass burn incineration with energy recovery was preferable over anaerobic digestion in most impact categories. Waste composition and flue gas cleaning at co-combustion plants were critical for the environmental performance of SRF treatment| while the impacts related to utilization of the digestate were significant for the outcome of organic waste treatment. The conclusions were robust in a present-day as well as in a future energy system. This indicated that mass burn incineration with efficient energy recovery is a very environmentally competitive solution overall. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12508,2011,3,4,Optimal| Environmentally Friendly Departure Procedures for Civil Aircraft,In the current aviation context| one of the major concerns of commercial aviation stakeholders is to improve the environmental footprint of aviation. This research| integrated into the European Clean Sky project| addresses the optimization of commercial aircraft departure procedures in order to minimize their environmental footprint. The environmental impact is defined by noise nuisance in the protected zones near airports| local air quality| and global warming. A recent| innovating method is proposed to solve the problem of a real-world aircraft departing from an ideal airport. A multiobjective| constrained| nonlinear optimization problem is formulated to obtain optimal departure procedures. The promising results obtained by the application of this methodology to a theoretical but representative scenario strongly encourage research activities in this direction. 11984,2011,3,3,Optimizing FT-IR Sampling for a Method to Determine the Chemical Composition of Microbial Materials,The need for new energy sources has been a major concern for many years. The fear over global warming and CO(2) emissions has drastically increased the worldwide awareness of this critical problem. The conversion of biomass into fuel is one of the most promising technologies to replace fossil fuels as a main energy source| particularly for transportation. Although food crops such as corn and soybeans have been successfully used to create bioethanol and biodiesel| the use of food crops and viable farmland is not really a sustainable long-term solution. A great deal of research is being funded to investigate alternative sources of biomass that can be economically converted into fuel. Algae and other aquatic species appear to be one of the most promising sources for the large quantities of biomass required for a successful biofuels program. The concept of producing biofuels from algae is not a recent idea and government funding for this research has been significant. A report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Golden| Colorado) provides an excellent background in this area| describing research that started in 1978 and extended over 20 years (1). One reason for the interest in algae as a source of biodiesel is that CO(2) and a source of nutrients are required for biomass production. In one scenario| large algae "farms" are positioned near power plants or incinerators to convert their waste CO(2) into biomass. Waste-treatment facilities also could provide most of the required nutrients.
11707,2011,2,4,Optofluidic characterization of marine algae using a microflow cytometer,The effects of global warming| pollution in river effluents| and changing ocean currents can be studied by characterizing variations in phytoplankton populations. We demonstrate the design and fabrication of a Microflow Cytometer for characterization of phytoplankton. Guided by chevron-shaped grooves on the top and bottom of a microfluidic channel| two symmetric sheath streams wrap around a central sample stream and hydrodynamically focus it in the center of the channel. The lasers are carefully chosen to provide excitation light close to the maximum absorbance wavelengths for the intrinsic fluorophores chlorophyll and phycoerythrin| and the excitation light is coupled to the flow cytometer through the use of an optical fiber. Fluorescence and light scatter are collected using two multimode optical fibers placed at 90-degree angles with respect to the excitation fiber. Light emerging from these collection fibers is directed through optical bandpass filters into photomultiplier tubes. The cytometer measured the optical and side scatter properties of Karenia b.| Synechococcus sp.| Pseudo-Nitzchia| and Alexandrium. The effect of the sheath-to-sample flow-rate ratio on the light scatter and fluorescence of these marine microorganisms was investigated. Reducing the sample flow rate from 200 mu L/min to 10 mu L/min produced a more tightly focused sample stream and less heterogeneous signals. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3608136] 3502,2011,2,4,OsRAN2| essential for mitosis| enhances cold tolerance in rice by promoting export of intranuclear tubulin and maintaining cell division under cold stress,With global climate change| abnormally low temperatures have affected the world's rice production. Many genes have been shown to be essential for molecular improvement of rice cold-tolerance traits. However| less is known about the molecular cellular mechanism of their response to cold stress. Here| we investigated OsRAN2 involved in regulation of cell division during cold stress in rice. Expression of OsRAN2 was increased under cold treatment| but not during salt and drought stress. The mean root mitotic index was closely related to the expression level of OsRAN2. Knockdown transgenic rice lines showed an aberrant organization of spindles during mitosis and stunted growth during development. Overexpression of OsRAN2 enhanced cold tolerance in rice. The transgenic rice overexpressing OsRAN2 showed maintained cell division| decreased proportion of cells with intranuclear tubulin and formation of a normal nuclear envelope under the cold condition. Our study suggests a mechanism for OsRAN2 in regulating cold resistance in rice by maintaining cell division through promoting the normal export of intranuclear tubulin at the end of mitosis. This insight could help improve the cold-tolerance trait in rice. 3498,2011,5,4,Ostracod distribution in Ulungur Lake (Xinjiang| China) and a reassessed Holocene record,Ostracod shells in surface sediments from Ulungur Lake (Xinjiang| China) belong mainly to Limnocythere inopinata as the dominant species| and Candona neglecta and Darwinula stevensoni as accompanying| less abundant taxa. Shells of an additional nine species were recorded only sporadically. The three most abundant ostracods have wide tolerance ranges in terms of salinity| substrate and water depth. The similarly recorded bivalve Pisidium subtruncatum| and the gastropods Gyraulus chinensis and Radix auricularia belong to the most tolerant representatives of the genera. The bivalve and gastropods| in addition to the ostracod assemblage| reflect the fact that Ulungur Lake has experienced strong lake level and salinity variations due to water withdrawal in the catchment and the counteracting diversion of river waters to the lake in recent decades. The substrate in Ulungur Lake is typically fine-grained| apart from the delta region of the Ulungur River channel| which is marked by relatively coarse-grained detrital sediments barren of ostracod shells. This channel was created 40 years ago to divert water to Ulungur Lake and support its local fisheries and recreational facilities. A reassessed Holocene ostracod record from the lake shows that a significantly higher salinity and lower lake level existed in the early Holocene before 6.0 ka in response to the regional climate. In contrast| a higher lake level and lowest salinity is inferred for the late Holocene period between ca. 3.6 and 1.3 ka before present. Afterwards| the lake level declined and salinity increased in response to regional moisture reduction| although conditions similar to the early Holocene lake status were not re-established. Our surface-sediment-derived data provide a baseline for analysis of future environmental variations due to global climate change and regional water management. 11995,2011,2,4,Oxidative stress and physiological damage under prolonged heat stress in C(3) grass Lolium perenne,Improving tolerance to heat stress is a major challenge in many C(3) crops given the threat of global warming. Populations of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) tolerant and sensitive to summer stress in the field were exposed to moderately high temperature stress (36 degrees C) or high temperature stress (40 degrees C). Physiological damage (maximal efficiency of photosystem II| cell membrane stability and lipid peroxidation) and contents of hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) in leaves were monitored during the exposure to stress. The tolerant populations showed significantly lower degree of physiological damage than the sensitive one only at moderate levels of stress (36 degrees C); the tolerant population had significantly lower amounts of H(2)O(2) in leaves. The accumulated H(2)O(2) content showed a linear relationship with the extent of physiological damage. These results suggest that population difference in heat tolerance is associated with tolerance to oxidative stress and the difference in sensitivity is due to accumulation of H(2)O(2) rather than tolerance to H(2)O(2). 12748,2011,2,4,Oxygen Sensitivity of Anammox and Coupled N-Cycle Processes in Oxygen Minimum Zones,Nutrient measurements indicate that 30-50% of the total nitrogen (N) loss in the ocean occurs in oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). This pelagic N-removal takes place within only similar to 0.1% of the ocean volume| hence moderate variations in the extent of OMZs due to global warming may have a large impact on the global N-cycle. We examined the effect of oxygen (O-2) on anammox| NH3 oxidation and NO3- reduction in N-15-labeling experiments with varying O-2 concentrations (0-25 mu mol L-1) in the Namibian and Peruvian OMZs. Our results show that O-2 is a major controlling factor for anammox activity in OMZ waters. Based on our O-2 assays we estimate the upper limit for anammox to be similar to 20 mu mol L-1. In contrast| NH3 oxidation to NO2- and NO3- reduction to NO2- as the main NH4+ and NO2- sources for anammox were only moderately affected by changing O-2 concentrations. Intriguingly| aerobic NH3 oxidation was active at non-detectable concentrations of O-2| while anaerobic NO3- reduction was fully active up to at least 25 mu mol L-1 O-2. Hence| aerobic and anaerobic N-cycle pathways in OMZs can co-occur over a larger range of O-2 concentrations than previously assumed. The zone where N-loss can occur is primarily controlled by the O-2(-) sensitivity of anammox itself| and not by any effects of O-2 on the tightly coupled pathways of aerobic NH3 oxidation and NO3- reduction. With anammox bacteria in the marine environment being active at O-2 levels similar to 20 times higher than those known to inhibit their cultured counterparts| the oceanic volume potentially acting as a N-sink increases tenfold. The predicted expansion of OMZs may enlarge this volume even further. Our study provides the first robust estimates of O-2 sensitivities for processes directly and indirectly connected with N-loss. These are essential to assess the effects of ocean de-oxygenation on oceanic N-cycling. 11795,2011,2,4,Oxygen supply in aquatic ectotherms: Partial pressure and solubility together explain biodiversity and size patterns,Aquatic ectotherms face the continuous challenge of capturing sufficient oxygen from their environment as the diffusion rate of oxygen in water is 3 x 10(5) times lower than in air. Despite the recognized importance of oxygen in shaping aquatic communities| consensus on what drives environmental oxygen availability is lacking. Physiologists emphasize oxygen partial pressure| while ecologists emphasize oxygen solubility| traditionally expressing oxygen in terms of concentrations. To resolve the question of whether partial pressure or solubility limits oxygen supply in nature| we return to first principles and derive an index of oxygen supply from Fick's classic first law of diffusion. This oxygen supply index (OSI) incorporates both partial pressure and solubility. Our OSI successfully explains published patterns in body size and species across environmental clines linked to differences in oxygen partial pressure (altitude| organic pollution) or oxygen solubility (temperature and salinity). Moreover| the OSI was more accurately and consistently related to these ecological patterns than other measures of oxygen (oxygen saturation| dissolved oxygen concentration| biochemical oxygen demand concentrations) and similarly outperformed temperature and altitude| which covaried with these environmental clines. Intriguingly| by incorporating gas diffusion rates| it becomes clear that actually more oxygen is available to an organism in warmer habitats where lower oxygen concentrations would suggest the reverse. Under our model| the observed reductions in aerobic performance in warmer habitats do not arise from lower oxygen concentrations| but instead through organismal oxygen demand exceeding supply. This reappraisal of how organismal thermal physiology and oxygen demands together shape aerobic performance in aquatic ectotherms and the new insight of how these components change with temperature have broad implications for predicting the responses of aquatic communities to ongoing global climate shifts. 12532,2011,2,4,Oxygenation variability in Mejillones Bay| off northern Chile| during the last two centuries,The Peru Chile Current ecosystem is characterized by high biological productivity and important fisheries. Although this system is likely to be severely affected by climate change| its response to current global warming is still uncertain. In this paper| we analyze 10-166 year-old sediments in two cores collected from Mejillones Bay| an anoxic sedimentary setting favorable for the preservation of proxies. Based on a 166-year chronology| we used proxies of bottom-water oxygenation (Mo| V| S| and the (lycopane+n-C(35))/n-C(31) ratio) and surface water productivity (biogenic opal| counts of diatom valves| biogenic Ba| organic carbon| and chlorins) to reconstruct environmental variations in Mejillones Bay. During the last two centuries| a shift took place in the coastal marine ecosystem of Bahia Mejillones at decadal scales. This shift was characterized by intense ENSO-like activity| large-scale fluctuations in biological export productivity and bottom water oxygenation| and increased eolian activity (inferred from Ti/Al and Zr/Al). This short-term variability was accompanied by a gradual increase of sulfidic conditions that has intensified since the early 1960s. 12072,2011,5,4,Paleoanalogues of Global Warming in the 21st Century,On the basis of landscape-climatic reconstructions for warming periods in the past| likely scenarios of future global warming have been developed for various warming levels that might be reached during the current century. The paleoanalogue of global warming by 0.7-1 degrees C is the Holocene climatic optimum (5.5-6 ka B.P.) and that by 1.7-2 degrees C is the last interglacial optimum (about 125 ka B.P.). The complex analysis concerning response of the principal ecosystem components to the expected warming signifies that there will not be any shifts of vegetation zones during the 21st century; reconstruction will touch only the internal structure of vegetable associations and broadening of interzonal ecotones. 12502,2011,5,4,PALEOCLIMATOLOGICAL EVIDENCE FOR UNPRECEDENTED RECENT TEMPERATURE RISE AT THE EXTRATROPICAL PART OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE,P>Eight| millennial-scale proxy reconstructions of temperature of the Northern Hemisphere were compared to instrumentally measured temperatures. The effect of anomalous reduction in sensitivity over the last decades (divergence) in the tree-ring based records was taken into account. Statistical analyses showed that in the extratropical part of the Northern Hemisphere the time period 1988-2008 was the warmest two decades within the last 1000 years and had a probability of more than 0.70. The established exceptional level of current temperature changes over those areas that were the least disturbed by local anthropogenic impact indicates that over the last two decades the climatic system was perturbed by an additional global-scale forcing factor| which had not operated in the past. 3280,2011,5,4,Paleosol carbonates from the Omo Group: Isotopic records of local and regional environmental change in East Africa,Pliocene and Pleistocene sedimentary rocks from the Omo-Turkana Basin in East Africa are well known for fossil and archeological evidence of human evolution and provide a unique opportunity to study four million years of environmental change in a rift basin. This study uses carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of pedogenic carbonates to examine environmental variability across similar to 5000 km(2) within the Omo-Turkana Basin. An expanded isotopic dataset| including the first isotopic data on pedogenic carbonates from the Shungura Formation and new data from the Nachukui and Koobi Fora formations| is compared to published isotopic records from both the Omo-Turkana Basin and the lower Awash Basin| Ethiopia. Regionally| the carbon isotope record indicates a steady increase of C(4) vegetation in floodplain environments for the past 4 million years. The oxygen isotopic record indicates that the isotopic composition of rainfall was depleted in (18)O relative to today's waters and that both basins likely received more rainfall in the Pliocene than today. A shift to higher delta(18)O values in paleosol carbonate after 2 Ma in the Omo-Turkana Basin but not in the lower Awash Basin suggests that the ecology and hydrology in these two rift basins were influenced by different climatic regimes. In addition to regional trends| pedogenic carbonates sampled from different parts of the basin show that the distribution of C(4) vegetation and soil water delta(18)O values varied with proximity to the axial river system| and specifically that C(3) vegetation was more dominant in soils of the Shungura Formation compared with coeval sediments downstream in the Nachukui and Koobi Fora formations. This large isotopic dataset from pedogenic carbonates provides the opportunity to examine how terrestrial systems responded to global climate change during the last 4 million years| from both local and regional perspectives. The isotopic data indicate that local basin and climate dynamics strongly influenced the impact of large-scale environmental change in East African rift basins. 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12171,2011,2,4,Paramuricea clavata (Anthozoa| Octocorallia) loss in the Marine Protected Area of Tavolara (Sardinia| Italy) due to a mass mortality event,Recent studies highlight an increase in the frequency and intensity of marine mass mortalities of several species over the past 30-40 years| mainly in tropical and temperate areas. In the Mediterranean Sea these episodes particularly affect benthic suspension feeders| such as sponges and cnidarians. The main objective of this work was to document the loss of one of the main Mediterranean seascapes| Paramuricea clavata forests at the Marine Protected Area of Tavolara Punta Coda Cavallo| Sardinia (Italy)| during the summer of 2008. Data regarding colony height| density| level of damage| and microbiological community were collected at two sites. Such parameters help us understand how mass mortality mechanisms act on this ecosystem engineer. We identified a change in size class distribution following a mass mortality that leaves mainly small colonies with a decrease in habitat complexity. Several tests on water chemistry demonstrate that the mortality event was not caused by local contamination. Moreover| microbiological tests on potential pathogenic agents suggest that bacteria belonging to the genus Vibrio are present as an opportunistic and not an etiological cause of P. clavata mortality events. Possible restoration approaches are discussed. 11682,2011,2,4,Parental overwintering history affects the responses of Thlaspi arvense to warming winters in the North,The overwintering conditions of northern plants are expected to change substantially due to global warming. For perennial plants| winter warming may increase the risk of frost damage if the plants start dehardening prematurely. On the other hand| evergreen plants may remain photosynthetically active and thereby benefit from milder winters. The positive and negative effects of mild winters on annual plants remain| however| largely unknown. We postulated that summer annuals may be susceptible to frost damage if the seeds germinate during a mild spell in winter. Winter annuals may utilize a warm period for photosynthesis. These questions were addressed in two consecutive experiments in which pot-grown individuals of Thlaspi arvense that overwintered in the field were exposed to an elevated temperature for 8 clays in growth chambers in mid-winter. No premature germination was observed in summer annuals. However| in accordance with our hypothesis| winter annuals started photosynthesising very rapidly upon exposure to elevated temperature. The winter warming treatment affected neither the total number of seeds produced nor the mean seed weight. These seeds| possessing divergent parental overwintering histories| were used as starting material for the second experiment. Seeds originating from both summer and winter annual plants germinated both in the autumn and in the following spring. We observed a major parental effect associated with the winter warming treatment. The warm spell experienced by the mother plant (either as a winter annual rosette or as a summer annual seed) reduced the proportion of autumn germination in the next generation. Only 43% of the seeds of summer annuals possessing a parental warming history germinated before the winter| whereas the germination percentage of seeds with no previous winter warming history was 71%. In the case of seeds collected from winter annual plants| 4% of the seeds germinated in autumn if the mother plants experienced the warming treatment during the previous winter| whereas the corresponding value was 37% if the mother plants did not experience warming. Our results show that summer and winter annual individuals show diverse responses to warm spells in winter. Since the responses are not limited only to the generation that actually experiences the warm spell| but also appear in their offspring| long-term studies consisting of several generations are called for. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3244,2011,2,4,Particles dynamics in a deep reservoir triggered by typhoons,Increases in extreme weather events as a result of global climate change are likely to impact aquatic systems in unconventional ways| raising the importance of studies on these events. The particle dynamics induced by intense typhoons in a deep subtropical reservoir are investigated by conducting weekly sampling of settling particles at depths of 20 m and 70 m collected from sediment traps| as well as biweekly sampling of total suspended matter (TSM) from the water column| for a period of 406 days| during which seven typhoons visited. It is observed that intensive typhoon events trigger the increase of settling flux to an amount that is one order of magnitude higher than the amount of the flux during normal days. The non-typhoon related weather events with high precipitations intriguingly did not induce a significantly high increase in settling flux or in TSM. An empirical "after typhoon" decay pattern of settling flux is observed which follows a first order relation| where a decay constant of 0.08 d(-1) is found. The predicted settling fluxes obtained using this empirical relation fit the measured data rather well. The influence of intense typhoons on particle dynamics in a deep inland water system can be understood as the joint effect of erosion on a land surface resulting from powerful winds and high runoff resulting from high levels of precipitation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11778,2011,3,3,Past land use decisions have increased mitigation potential of reforestation,Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) influences global mean temperatures via counteracting effects: CO(2) emissions contribute to global warming| while biogeophysical effects| in particular the increase in surface albedo| often impose a cooling influence. Previous studies of idealized| large-scale deforestation found that albedo cooling dominates over CO(2) warming in boreal regions| indicating that boreal reforestation is not an effective mitigation tool. Here we show the importance of past land use decisions in influencing the mitigation potential of reforestation on these lands. In our simulations| CO(2) warming dominates over albedo cooling because past land use decisions resulted in the use of the most productive land with larger carbon stocks and less snow than on average. As a result past land use decisions extended CO(2) dominance to most agriculturally important regions in the world| suggesting that in most places reversion of past land cover change could contribute to climate change mitigation. While the relative magnitude of CO(2) and albedo effects remains uncertain| the historical land use pattern is found to be biased towards stronger CO(2) and weaker albedo effects as compared to idealized large-scale deforestation. Citation: Pongratz| J.| C. H. Reick| T. Raddatz| K. Caldeira| and M. Claussen (2011)| Past land use decisions have increased mitigation potential of reforestation| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L15701| doi:10.1029/2011GL047848. 12326,2011,2,4,PATTERNS AND MAGNITUDE OF TEMPORAL CHANGE IN AVIAN COMMUNITIES IN THE ECUADORIAN ANDES,The tropical Andes rank first among the world's 25 "hotspots" of biodiversity and endemism yet are threatened and little studied. We contrast population trends in avian diversity in montane cloud forest (bosque altoandino) and similar forest degraded by the planting of introduced tree species (bosque introducido) in the Mazan Reserve| Ecuador. We describe changes in bird diversity and abundance in these habitats over 12 years and evaluate the nature of change within these avian communities. On the basis of 2976 count detections and 419 net captures of 76 species of landbirds| indices of similarity between the habitats were low| with only 47.6% of species occurring in both forest types. From 1994-95 to 2006-07| species richness decreased from 54 to 31 in bosque introducido and from 67 to 30 in bosque altoandino. Capture rates also declined from 56.0 to 28.5 birds per 100 mist-net hr in bosque introducido and from 38.0 to 22.4 birds per 100 mist-net hr in bosque altoandino. We explore various potentially interacting factors that might have caused the observed changes in bird communities| including changes in vegetation within the Mazan Reserve and environmental changes resulting from global warming. But our results also suggest that local and regional changes in habitat outside of the Mazan Reserve were likely responsible for some community changes within the reserve. We argue for increased population monitoring to verify trends and to strengthen the effectiveness of conservation efforts in the Andes. 12826,2011,4,2,Patterns of change: whose fingerprint is seen in global warming?,Attributing observed climate change to causes is challenging. This letter communicates the physical arguments used in attribution| and the statistical methods applied to explore to what extent different possible causes can be used to explain the recent climate records. The methods use fingerprints of climate change that are identified on the basis of the physics governing our climate system| and through the use of climate model experiments. These fingerprints characterize the geographical and vertical pattern of the expected changes caused by external influences| for example| greenhouse gas increases and changes in solar radiation| taking also into account how these forcings and their effects vary over time. These time-space fingerprints can be used to discriminate between observed climate changes caused by different external factors. Attribution assessments necessarily take the natural variability of the climate system into account as well| evaluating whether an observed change can be explained in terms of this internal variability alone| and estimating the contribution of this source of variability to the observed change. Hence the assessment that a large part of the observed recent warming is anthropogenic is based on a rigorous quantitative analysis of these joint drivers and their effects| and proceeds through a much more comprehensive and layered analysis than a comparison at face value of model simulations with observations. 12654,2011,2,4,Patterns of hydroid (Cnidaria| Hydrozoa) species richness and distribution in an Arctic glaciated fjord,The consequences of global warming are particularly evident in high polar areas. Deglaciation phenomenon-negative mass balance of Svalbard glaciers and recession of tidal glaciers-results in landscape and shoreline change. These areas of very dynamic conditions are now open for primary colonists| among them hydroids| typical early colonists of the vacant substratum. This study aims to explore the patterns of Hydrozoan diversity and distribution in Hornsund (west Spitsbergen). Hydroids associated with shallow water kelp beds as well as those occurring on deeper subtidal soft bottom were collected at sites located along gradients of glacial disturbance (i.e.| high mineral sedimentation| ice-berg scouring). Samples were collected by scuba diving (three sites of different distance to active tidal glaciers)| van Veen grabs (two sites located in the inner and outer fjord basin)| and dredges taken from along a fjord transect. Hydroid diversity differed significantly between sites located in the vicinity of glaciers fronts in glaciated bays and sites comparatively free from glacier disturbance. Glacial disturbance results in low frequencies of occurrence and high levels of rarity of hydroids at sites located close to glacier fronts. The species richness of hydroids colonizing the hard substrate elements present in deeper subtidal decreases along the fjord axis (i.e.| along the glacial sedimentation gradient). 12362,2011,2,3,Pedotransfer functions for estimating total soil nitrogen up to the global scale,Realistic model representation of the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems| including all relevant biophysical and biogeochemical interactions| is a prerequisite to accurate predictions of climate change. However| the current generation of models requires improvement. In particular| it is important to know the nitrogen status of soil for modelling global vegetation and the emission of pollutants such as nitrous oxide. For this reason| we collated several major datasets that record total nitrogen (TN) and other key properties of soils. From these data| we derived pedotransfer functions (PTFs) to predict TN of soils from other soil and site properties using stepwise multiple regressions. The most important predictor was found to be soil organic carbon (SOC). Other helpful soil and site properties for predicting TN included distance from the equator| soil texture class| soil group C:N ratio| pH| % clay and whether the soil contains more or less than 10% SOC. Several different PTFs are presented| giving the user a choice| depending on which soil and site properties are available. In all| we calculated that over 9000 observations were available| although not all datasets contained all the site properties listed above. The most useful PTF was found to be: TN = 0.0232 + 0.0250*C - 0.000534*D + 0.521*G + a(T)| for C < 10%| and TN = 0.269 + 0.0449*C - 0.00575*D - 0.157*G + b(T)| for C >= 10%| where C is % SOC| D is the degrees from the equator| G is a soil group factor defined as (C/Median C:N ratio of soil group)| T is a factor based on texture classes (1| 2 or 3)| depending on clay and sand content and a takes the value 0.0| 0.0228 or 0.0296 when T is 1| 2 or 3| respectively| and similarly b takes one of the values 0.0| 0.328 or 0.440| respectively. The PTFs were validated against data not used in their derivation| which were held back for this specific purpose. On the basis of the PTF above and the pre-existing digital soil map of the world| we publish a map of the global distribution of TN. It has been suggested that additional CO(2) may be emitted from soils as a result of global warming| exacerbating warming still further. We calculate that the nitrous oxide formed as a result of the nitrogen that also mineralized could contribute a further 30% of additional warming. 12489,2011,2,4,PENETRATION OF THE STELLER'S SEA LION (EUMETOPIAS JUBATUS) INTO WATERS OF THE CHUKCHI AND EAST-SIBERIAN SEAS,The penetration of Steller's sea lions into the waters of the Chukchi and East-Siberian seas to the west from Bering Strait| beyond the limits of the northern part of their main area are discussed. The information collected by the authors during their own investigations and inquiry of local people and officers of different services| showed that at the end of the 1970s-1980s| Steller's sea lions started to penetrate regularly into the waters of the Chukchi and East-Siberian seas. They appeared to the west of the Kolyma river mouth and in the mouth of other rivers| especially frequently in the 2000s. Such far penetrations of the Steller's sea lions in the western direction may be connected with the phenomenon of global warming that resulted in the decrease of the ice cover in the Chukchi and East-Siberian Seas and rise of water temperature. The northern seas investigated appeared to become more attractive for these seals normally inhabiting warmer seas. Probably| the first stage of the colonization of new territories by the Steller's sea lions was revealed. 12149,2011,2,4,Percentage of Dehisced Thecae and Length of Dehiscence Control Pollination Stability of Rice Cultivars at High Temperatures,Global warming may reduce rice yield through poor pollination caused by high temperatures at flowering. The dominant parameter controlling the pollination stability in rice cultivars at high temperatures was studied. We examined the effects of a high daytime temperature (35.0 degrees C| 37.5 degrees C| 40.0 degrees C) and its duration (1| 3| 5 days) on the percentage of dehisced thecae| the length of dehiscence in the basal part of the theca for pollen dispersal| and pollination stability. The percentage of sufficiently pollinated florets (%SPF) decreased with the increase in daytime temperature and the duration of treatment. At a daytime temperature of 37.5 degrees C| %SPF varied widely among the cultivars and was highly correlated with the length of dehiscence formed at the basal part of the theca (r=0.930| P < 0.01| n=6) and the percentage of dehisced thecae (r=0.868| P < 0.05| n=6). The factor that better explained the variation in %SPF shifted from the length of the basal dehiscence to the percentage of dehisced thecae with increasing duration of high-temperature treatment. Thus| the process preventing pollination shifted from pollen release to anther dehiscence with the increase of exposure to a high temperature. 12324,2011,3,4,Performance of a single-stage auto-cascade refrigerator operating with a rectifying column at the temperature level of-60 degrees C,This paper proposes a new approach to the performance optimization of an auto-cascade refrigerator (ACR) operating with a rectifying column and six types of binary refrigerants (R23/R134a| R23/R227ea| R23/R236fa| R1701R290| R170/R600a| and R170/R600) at a temperature level of -60 degrees C. Half of the six binary refrigerants are nonflammable| of which the 0.5 and the 0.6 mole fractions of R23 for the R23/R236fa possess the most prospective composition for the medium and low suction pressure compressors| respectively. The remaining three binary refrigerants are flammable but with low global warming potentials| of which the 0.6 mole fraction of R170 for the R170/R600 is the most prospective one. The results show that the overall matching as well as local matching of heat capacity rates of hot and cold refrigerants in the recuperators are important for the improvement of coefficient of performance of the cycle| which can be adjusted through the simultaneous optimization of the pressure level and composition. The new approach proposed also offers a wider range of applications to the optimization in performance of the cycle using multi-component refrigerants. 3197,2011,3,1,Performance of amine-multilayered solid sorbents for CO(2) removal: Effect of fabrication variables,The emission of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO(2)) to the atmosphere is implicated as the predominant cause of global climate change; therefore| advanced CO(2) capture technologies are of the utmost importance. In this study| innovative amine-multilayered sorbents were fabricated using layer-by-layer (LbL) nanoassembly technology via alternate deposition of a CO(2)-adsorbing amine polymer (e.g. polyethylenimine or PEI) and an oppositely-charged polymer (e.g. polystyrene sulfonate or PSS). We found that the developed sorbents could be used for CO(2) capture and that LbL nanoassembly allows us to engineer their CO(2) capture performance through the fabrication variables (e.g. deposition polymers| deposition media| and number of bilayers). PEI/PSS was found to be the best polymer combination for developing sorbents with relatively high CO(2) capture capacity. The amine-multilayered solid sorbents possessed fine microstructures and may have similar polymer deposition within and on the surface of solid sorbents. These amine-multilayered sorbents had much faster CO(2) desorption rates compared to sorbents prepared using the current PEI-impregnation approach. Such fast CO(2) desorption could make sorbents a good option for CO2 removal from power plants and even the atmosphere. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12710,2011,2,4,Perioxidases play important roles in abscisic acid (ABA)-simulating photosystem II (PSII) thermostabilty of apple tree rootstock leaves,Leaf photosynthetic activity limited by summer heat stress represents large constraint to production process of fruit trees. To cope with this problem| we tested photosystem II (PS II) thermostability in clonal apple tree rootstocks with different growth intensity - semi-vigorous-MM106 and dwarfing-J-TE-F experiencing summer heat stress| and related antioxidative activity and phytohormonal balance. For this purpose| expanded leaves were collected and utilized for determination of 3-indoleacetic acid (IAA)| cytokinins (CKs)| abscisic acid (ABA) concentrations| and superoxide dismutase (SOD)| total peroxidases (POX)| catalase (CAT)| total antioxidative activity (TAA) and PS II thermostability before and after 30 min dark exposition to temperature of 42 degrees C (because of relatively-stable PS II). Leaves from dwarfing-J-TE-F showed higher PS II thermostability than that from semi-vigorous-MM106 as indicated by higher maximal quantum yield of primary photochemistry (Phi(Po))| excitation transfer efficiency to electron transport chain (psi(o))| electron transport yield (Phi(Eo)) and lower thermal dissipation yield (Phi(Do)). From antioxidant parameters| genotypic specifity can be seen in total peroxidases activity and only JTE-F leaves predominated. Despite higher CKs concentration in leaves of MM106| active CKs did not show any difference between two rootstocks. IAA also exhibited balanced level| but ABA concentration was four times higher in J-TE-F leaves than MM106 ones. We can conclude that in PS II heat-hardening of apple tree rootstock leaves| which is at least partly provided by enhanced peroxidases activity| ABA plays the central role and J-TE-F rootstock can be recomended to heat stress in the prone regions. 3194,2011,2,3,Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming,Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon| which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics| inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers| vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers| and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas| and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks| to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)| when permafrost processes are included| terrestrial ecosystems north of 60 degrees N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios ( SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100| the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source| depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero| which is within the range of previous model estimates| to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C| depending on processes included in the model| with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 TgCH(4)/y| with increases due to CO(2) fertilization| permafrost thaw| and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent. 11624,2011,2,4,Persistence of soil organic matter as an ecosystem property,Globally| soil organic matter (SOM) contains more than three times as much carbon as either the atmosphere or terrestrial vegetation. Yet it remains largely unknown why some SOM persists for millennia whereas other SOM decomposes readily-and this limits our ability to predict how soils will respond to climate change. Recent analytical and experimental advances have demonstrated that molecular structure alone does not control SOM stability: in fact| environmental and biological controls predominate. Here we propose ways to include this understanding in a new generation of experiments and soil carbon models| thereby improving predictions of the SOM response to global warming. 12047,2011,5,3,Persistent El Nino-Southern Oscillation variation during the Pliocene Epoch,There is an urgent requirement to understand how large fluctuations in tropical heat distribution associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Intervals of global warmth in Earth history provide a unique natural laboratory to explore the behavior of ENSO in a warmer world. To investigate interannual climatic variability| specifically ENSO| in the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP) (3.26-3.03 Ma)| we integrate observations from the stable isotopes of multiple individual planktonic foraminifera from three different species from the eastern equatorial Pacific with ENSO simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3)| a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. Our proxy data and model outputs show persistent interannual variability during the mPWP caused by a fluctuating thermocline| despite a deeper thermocline and reduced upwelling. We show that the likely cause of the deeper thermocline is due to warmer equatorial undercurrents rather than reduced physical upwelling. We conclude that the mPWP was characterized by ENSO-related variability around a mean state akin to a modern El Nino event. Furthermore| HadCM3 predicts that the warmer Pliocene world is characterized by a more periodic| regular-amplitude ENSO fluctuation| suggestive that the larger and deeper west Pacific warm pool is more easily destabilized eastward. These conclusions are comparable to the observed trend over the last 40 years to more regular and intense ENSO events. Future research must resolve whether global warming alone| or in concert with tectonic factors| was sufficient to alter ENSO variability during warm intervals of the Pliocene. 12588,2011,3,4,Perspectives on studies on soil carbon stocks and the carbon sequestration potential of China,Soil carbon stocks and sequestration have been given a lot of attention recently in the study of terrestrial ecosystems and global climate change. This review focuses on the progress made on the estimation of the soil carbon stocks of China| and the characterization of carbon dynamics of croplands with regard to climate change| and addresses issues on the mineralization of soil organic carbon in relation to greenhouse gas emissions. By integrating existing research data| China's total soil organic carbon (SOC) stock is estimated to be 90 Pg and its inorganic carbon (SIC) stock as 60 Pg| with SOC sequestration rates in the range of 20-25 Tg/a for the last two decades. An estimation of the biophysical potential of SOC sequestration has been generally agreed as being 2 Pg over the long term| of which only 1/3 could be attainable using contemporary agricultural technologies in all of China's croplands. Thus| it is critical to enhance SOC sequestration and mitigate climate change to improve agricultural and land use management in China. There have been many instances where SOC accumulation may not induce an increased amount of decomposition under a warming scenario but instead favor improved cropland productivity and ecosystem functioning. Furthermore| unchanged or even decreased net global warming potential (GWP) from croplands with enhanced SOC has been reported by a number of case studies using life cycle analysis. Future studies on soil carbon stocks and the sequestration potential of China are expected to focus on: (1) Carbon stocks and the sequestration capacity of the earths' surface systems at scales ranging from the plot to the watershed and (2) multiple interface processes and the synergies between carbon sequestration and ecosystem productivity and ecosystem functioning at scales from the molecular level to agro-ecosystems. Soil carbon science in China faces new challenges and opportunities to undertake integrated research applicable to many areas. 11612,2011,3,2,Photocatalytic reduction of CO(2) to hydrocarbons using AgBr/TiO(2) nanocomposites under visible light,Urgent development of effective and low-cost technologies for reduction CO(2) is needed to address global warming caused by atmospheric CO(2) and the depletion of fossil fuels. In this investigation| an effective photocatalytic reduction of CO(2) using AgBr/TiO(2) photocatalyst under visible light (lambda > 420 nm) was studied. The nanostructured AgBr/TiO(2) photocatalyst was prepared by the deposition-precipitation method in the presence of cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB)| and characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD)| diffuse reflectance spectra (DRS)| scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Their photocatalytic activities were evaluated by the reduction yield in the presence of CO(2) and water. The experiment results showed that 23.2% AgBr/TiO(2) had relatively high reduction yields under visible-light irradiation for 5 h| with a methane yield of 128.56| methanol yield of 77.87| ethanol yield of 13.28| and CO yield of 32.14 mu mol g(-1)| respectively. The highly efficiently photocatalytic activities of AgBr/TiO(2) in the reduction process of CO(2) is attributed to its strong absorption in the visible-light region. In addition| it was found that AgBr/TiO(2) photocatalyst was stable in the repeated uses under visible light irradiation| due to the transfer of photoexcited electrons from the conduction band of well-dispersed AgBr to that of TiO(2). (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3186,2011,2,4,Photosynthesis acclimation| leaf nitrogen concentration| and growth of four tree species over 3 years in response to elevated carbon dioxide and nitrogen treatment in subtropical China,Up to date| most studies about the plant photosynthetic acclimation responses to elevated carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration have been performed in temperate areas| which are often N limited under natural conditions and with low ambient N deposition. It is unclear whether photosynthetic downregulation is alleviated with increased N availability| for example| from increased N deposition due to fossil fuel combustion in the tropics and subtropics. Awareness of plant photosynthetic responses to elevated CO(2) concentration will contribute to the better understanding and prediction of future forest productivity under global change. Four tree species| Schima superba Gardn. et Champ.| Ormosia pinnata (Lour.) Merr| Castanopsis hystrix AC. DC.| and Acmena acuminatissima (Blume) Merr. et Perry were exposed to a factorial combination of atmospheric CO(2) concentration (ambient and elevated CO(2) concentration at ca. 700 mu mol CO(2) mol(-1)) and N deposition (ambient and ambient + 100 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)) in open-top chambers in southern China for 3 years since March 2005. Light-saturated net photosynthetic rate| leaf N concentration| and tree growth of all species were measured. The CO(2) treatments did not affect light-saturated net photosynthetic rate of all species grown with the high N treatment. However| S. superba grown with the low N treatment (ambient) had 23% and 47% greater net photosynthesis in the ambient CO(2) concentration than those in the elevated CO(2) concentration for December 2006 and November 2007 (20 and 31 months after the treatments were applied)| respectively| and A. acuminatissima grown with the low N treatment had 173%| 26%| and 121% greater net photosynthesis in trees grown in the ambient CO(2) concentration than those in the elevated CO(2) concentration for July 2006 (16 months after the treatments)| December 2006 (20 months)| and November 2007 (31 months)| respectively| whereas| photosynthetic acclimation was not found for C. hystrix and O. pinnata. With the photosynthetic acclimation of S. superba and A. acuminatissima| we also found that the elevated CO(2) concentration decreased significantly leaf N concentration in trees of S. superba and A. acuminatissima grown with the low N treatment| respectively. C. hystrix seems to be a good species for C fixation under global climate change| particularly with the rising CO(2) concentration. We demonstrated that the relative responses to elevated CO(2) concentration and N treatment differ among tree species and functional types in the tropical and subtropical areas. 11990,2011,2,4,Photosynthetic Responses of Smilax goyazana (Smilacaceae),PALHARES D.| FRANCO A. C. & PENTEADO ZAIDAN L. B. 2011. Photosynthetic responses of Smilax goyazana (Smilacaceae). - Phyton (Horn| Austria) 51 (1): 115-132| with 4 figures. Smilax goyazana A. DC. (Smilacaceae) is a herbaceous species very common in the Cerrado. The gas exchange| the fluorescence of chlorophyll| the leaf water potential| the titratable acidity and the chlorophyll and carotenoid contents were measured in order to disclose its photosynthetic plasticity of responses to field conditions. The female plants tended to a higher degree of electron transport rate than the male plants. The maximum value of net CO(2) assimilation and the transpiration rates were similar between male and female plants. The rates of CO(2) assimilation| transpiration and electron transport on sunny days were stable throughout the day and also during the rainy and dry seasons. The leaf water potential is isohydric and constant even during the dry season. There was no difference in titrable acidity between dawn and dusk. The chlorophyll contents are typical of plants adapted to high levels of sunlight. 12742,2011,2,4,Phylogeographic Pattern of Populus cathayana in the Southeast of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China Revealed by cpSSR Markers,The vegetation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is thought to be highly sensitive and more vulnerable to global climate change than that of other areas. The uplift of the plateau as well as the climatic oscillations during glacial periods had a profound impact on plant species distribution and genetic diversity there. In the present study| seven pairs of cpSSR (chloroplast Simple Sequence Repeat) primers were utilized to detect genetic varieties of Populus cathayana Rehd populations from their natural range in the southeastern areas of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. A total of 28 alleles and 12 different haplotypes were detected. The proportion of haplotype variation among populations (G(ST) = 0.794| N-ST = 0.900) indicated high level of genetic differentiation among populations and a significant phylogeographic structure (N-ST > G(ST)| P < 0.05). This appears to support the hypothesis that these populations were derived from multiple refugia areas during the Quaternary climatic oscillations. Based on the haplotype network and mismatch distribution analyses| we found no evidence of postglacial range recolonization and expansion by P cathayana in this region. This might be mainly due to the complex topography of the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The lofty mountain ranges and deep valleys in this region might have prevented long-distance migrations of this species during the climatic amelioration. 3338,2011,2,4,Phylogeography of the copepod Acartia hudsonica in estuaries of the northeastern United States,Copepods of the genus Acartia dominate zooplankton assemblages in northwestern Atlantic estuaries| many of which originated after the last glacial maximum 10|000-18|000 years ago. Acartia hudsonica occurs| at least seasonally| in estuaries from Chesapeake Bay to Labrador/Newfoundland. We sequenced the mitochondrial gene Cytochrome B (CytB) of 75 individuals of A. hudsonica from 26 estuaries from New Jersey to Maine| covering four biogeographic regions| and 11 individuals of Acartia tonsa from four of these estuaries in the southern part of the sampling range. A. hudsonica exhibited exceptionally high intraspecific DNA sequence variation. Uncorrected p-distances between sequences ranged from 0.3 to 31%. Five highly divergent sequence groups differed in frequencies across populations and biogeographic regions. One sequence group dominated northern localities| and two sequence groups were found at intermediate to high frequencies in two southern biogeographic regions. Ages of the sequence groups were estimated to be 11| 13| 30| and 37 million years| by applying a molecular clock calibrated by divergence in Alpheus snapping shrimps across the Isthmus of Panama. These ages were compared with independent biogeographic paleoceanographic data| and may have coincided with periods of global climate change over the past 40 MY. 12105,2011,2,4,Physiological flexibility and climate change: The case of digestive function regulation in lizards,Our planet is undergoing fast environmental changes| which are referred as global change. In this new scenario| it is of paramount relevance to understand the mechanistic basis of animal responses to environmental change. Here we analyze to what extent seasonal changes in the digestive function of the lizard Liolaemus moradoensis is under endogenous (Le.| hard wired) or exogenous (i.e.| environmentally determined) control. For this purpose we compared animals collected in the field during autumn| winter and summer| against (experimental) specimens collected in the field at the beginning of autumn and reared in the laboratory under simulated summer conditions until winter. We found that different aspects of the digestive function are under different types of control: small intestine length appears to be under endogenous control (i.e.| experimental animals were similar to winter animals)| small intestine mass appears to be under exogenous control (i.e.| experimental animals were similar to summer animals)| and specific enzyme activities did not change throughout the year. Thus| we suspect that processes related with gut length| such as cell division| may be under endogenous control| while others related with gut mass| such as enterocyte size and content| may be determined by exogenous factors| such as the presence of food in the intestinal lumen. Faced with accelerated changing conditions| the ability of vertebrates to cope will be closely related with their plasticity in fitness-associated traits. More studies aimed at determining the levels and limits of physiological flexibility will be necessary to understand this phenomenon. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 12101,2011,2,2,Physiology of invasion: cane toads are constrained by thermal effects on physiological mechanisms that support locomotor performance,Understanding the mechanisms that constrain the invasiveness of introduced animals is essential for managing invasions and for predicting their limits. In most vertebrate species| the capacity for invasion relies upon the physiological systems that support locomotion| and oxygen transport and metabolism may become limiting as environmental temperatures increase as predicted by the oxygen limitation hypothesis. Here we test the oxygen limitation hypothesis and propose the alternative hypothesis that within-individual plasticity will compensate for thermal variation. We show that during exercise in the invasive cane toad (Rhinella marina) oxygen transport by the cardiovascular system was maximised in warm-acclimated toads at high (30 degrees C) temperatures| and that oxygen content of arterial blood was not affected by temperature. Resting oxygen consumption remained stable across a 10 degrees C temperature range (20-30 degrees C) when toads were allowed to acclimate| so that there was no increase in resting oxygen demand that could lead to a decrease in aerobic scope at high temperatures. Additionally| temperature acclimation had no effect on arterial-venous differences in oxygen partial pressures. Toads relied more on glycolytic ATP production at low temperatures to support locomotor activity. Mitochondrial capacities (citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase activities) were greatest at warmer temperatures. Interestingly| the metabolic cost of exercise increased at low temperatures. In contradiction to predictions by the oxygen limitation hypothesis| aerobic performance was not limited by high temperatures. On the contrary| the relatively slow advance of cane toads to cooler climates can be explained by the constraints of low temperatures on the physiological systems supporting locomotion. It is likely that human-induced global warming will facilitate invasions of environments that are currently too cool to support cane toads. 11641,2011,4,4,Planetary albedo in strongly forced climate| as simulated by the CMIP3 models,In an ensemble of general circulation models| the global mean albedo significantly decreases in response to strong CO(2) forcing. In some of the models| the magnitude of this positive feedback is as large as the CO(2) forcing itself. The models agree well on the surface contribution to the trend| due to retreating snow and ice cover| but display large differences when it comes to the contribution from shortwave radiative effects of clouds. The "cloud contribution" defined as the difference between clear-sky and all-sky albedo anomalies and denoted as Delta CC is correlated with equilibrium climate sensitivity in the models (correlation coefficient 0.76)| indicating that in high sensitivity models the clouds to a greater extent act to enhance the negative clear-sky albedo trend| whereas in low sensitivity models the clouds rather counteract this trend. As a consequence| the total albedo trend is more negative in more sensitive models (correlation coefficient 0.73). This illustrates in a new way the importance of cloud response to global warming in determining climate sensitivity in models. The cloud contribution to the albedo trend can primarily be ascribed to changes in total cloud fraction| but changes in cloud albedo may also be of importance. 12334,2011,3,3,Plant influence on nitrification,Modern agriculture has promoted the development of high-nitrification systems that are susceptible to major losses of nitrogen through leaching of nitrate and gaseous emissions of nitrogen oxide (NO and N(2)O)| contributing to global warming and depletion of the ozone layer. Leakage of nitrogen from agricultural systems forces increased use of nitrogen fertilizers and causes water pollution and elevated costs of food production. Possible strategies for prevention of these processes involve various agricultural management approaches and use of synthetic inhibitors. Growing plants capable of producing nitrification suppressors could become a potentially superior method of controlling nitrification in the soil. There is a need to investigate the phenomenon of biological nitrification inhibition in arable crop species. 12814,2011,2,4,Plant phenological variation related to temperature in Norway during the period 1928-1977,First flowering was observed in some native herbaceous and woody plants in Norway at latitudes of similar to 58 degrees N to nearly 71 degrees N from 1928 to 1977. For woody plants| the timing for first bud burst was also often observed. Generally| there were highly significant correlations (0.1% level) between the timing of nearly all spring-early summer observations in plants and gridded mean monthly temperatures for the various phenophases (up to 65% of the variance was accounted for| less so for the autumn phenophases). Analyses by a low pass Gaussian smoothing technique showed early phenophases in the warm period of the early 1930s| delayed phases for most sites and species in colder periods in the early 1940s| mid-1950s| late 1960s and also towards the end of the study period in the late 1970s| all in approximately 10- to 12-year cycles. The study thus starts in a relatively early (warm) period and ends towards a late (cooler) period| resulting in mainly weak linear trends in phenophases throughout the total period. The end of the observation period in 1977 also predates the strongly increasing "earliness" in phenology of plants in most Norwegian lowland areas due to global warming. The strong altitudinal and latitudinal variations in Norway| however| do cause regional differences in trends. The study showed a tendency towards earlier spring phenophases all along the western coast from south to north in the country. On the other hand| the northeasternmost site and also the more continental sites in the southeast showed tendencies to weak trends for later phenophases during the 50 years of these field observations. 12017,2011,4,4,Plant-mediated CH(4) transport and C gas dynamics quantified in-situ in a Phalaris arundinacea-dominant wetland,Northern peatland methane (CH(4)) budgets are important for global CH(4) emissions. This study aims to determine the ecosystem CH(4) budget and specifically to quantify the importance of Phalaris arundinacea by using different chamber techniques in a temperate wetland. Annually| roughly 70 +/- 35% of ecosystem CH(4) emissions were plant-mediated| but data show no evidence of significant diurnal variations related to convective gas flow regardless of season or plant growth stages. Therefore| despite a high percentage of arenchyma| P. arundinacea-mediated CH(4) transport is interpreted to be predominantly passive. Thus| diurnal variations are less important in contrast to wetland vascular plants facilitating convective gas flow. Despite of plant-dominant CH(4) transport| net CH(4) fluxes were low (-aEuro parts per thousand 0.005-0.016 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)) and annually less than 1% of the annual C-CO(2) assimilation. This is considered a result of an effective root zone oxygenation resulting in increased CH(4) oxidation in the rhizosphere at high water levels. This study shows that although CH(4)| having a global warming potential 25 times greater than CO(2)| is emitted from this P. arundinacea wetland| less than 9% of the C sequestered counterbalances the CH(4) emissions to the atmosphere. It is concluded that P. arundinacea-dominant wetlands are an attractive C-sequestration ecosystem. 11870,2011,2,4,Plants used as Agricultural seasons indicator by Mao Naga tribe| Manipur| India,The paper presents four plants used as an agricultural season indicator by Mao Naga tribe of Manipur| India. Agriculture is the main occupation of the tribe and they have a unique way of knowing plantation season for different crops by observing the flowering of some plants. The indicator plants are peach (Prunus persica)| wild cherry (P. carmesina)| camel foot (Bauhinia purpurea) and dancing girl (Mantisia spathulata). The information on plants used as season indicators may help understanding the global warming and climate change in recent years. There is a need for involving interdisciplinary research to unveil the mystery of folklore science for the prosperity of mankind.
3245,2011,3,3,Plasma-enhanced atomic layer deposition of titania on alumina for its potential use as a hydrogen-selective membrane,As a clean energy carrier| hydrogen has attracted global attention in recent years| because it could address issues that are related to reducing global climate change. It has to be stipulated that to date's processes for hydrogen production using fossil fuels need to be coupled with CO(2) separation and storage. Thermally and hydrothermally stable microporous membranes with intrinsic high H(2)/CO(2) selectivity are highly demanded in steam-reforming and water gas-shift processes for H(2) gas separation. In this study a composite alumina-titania membrane was synthesized by the combination of atomic layer deposition (ALD) and sol-gel processes. By adjusting the number of ALD cycles (280 cycles)| a thin TiO(2) layer corresponding to a thickness of similar to 10 nm was deposited on the surface of gamma-Al(2)O(3) membranes. The gas permeation was tested to assess the membranes' gas separation performance. The membranes exhibited a good balance between H(2) permeance and separation properties. At 450 K| the H(2) permeance is approximately 12.5 x 10(-8) mol m(-2) s(-1) Pa(-1) and the separation factor is 5.8 for a H(2)/CO(2) mixture. The results clearly demonstrate that the studied deposition method ALD is a promising route to prepare ceramic microporous membranes for hydrogen separation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3487,2011,2,4,Plasticity and evolution in drought avoidance and escape in the annual plant Brassica rapa,P>A key question in ecological genetics is to what extent do plants adapt to changes in climatic conditions| such as drought| through plasticity or evolution. To address this question| seeds of 140 maternal families of Brassica rapa were generated from collections made before (1997) and after (2004) a natural drought. These seeds were planted in the glasshouse and grown under low-water and high-water conditions. Post-drought lines flowered earlier than pre-drought lines| showing an evolutionary shift to earlier flowering. There was significant genetic variation and genotype by environment (G x E) interactions in flowering time| indicating genetic variation in plasticity in this trait. Plants that flowered earlier had fewer leaf nodes and lower instantaneous (A/g) and integrated (delta 13C) water use efficiency than late-flowering plants. These results suggest that B. rapa plants escape drought through early flowering rather than avoid drought through increased water use efficiency. The mechanism of this response appears to be high transpiration and inefficient water use| leading to rapid development. These findings demonstrate a trade-off between drought avoidance and escape| and indicate that| in this system| where drought acts to shorten the growing season| selection for drought escape through earlier flowering is more important than phenotypic plasticity. 3322,2011,5,4,Plio-Pleistocene climate change and timing of Peninsular Ranges uplift in southern California: Evidence from paleosols and stable isotopes in the Fish Creek-Vallecito basin,Abundant Plio-Pleistocene paleosols in the Fish Creek-Vallecito basin record the effects of late Neogene global climate change on inland southern California. Analysis of 82 paleosol horizons ranging in age from 3.9 to 0.7 Ma reveals two primary populations: vertic paleosols with abundant mud cracks and calcic paleosols with pronounced calcite accumulation zones. Vertic paleosols are dominant in older deposits but disappear from the stratigraphic record by 2.8 Ma| after which point calcic paleosols are nearly the only paleosol type present. Pedogenic carbonate nodules from 47 horizons were analyzed for oxygen and carbon isotopic compositions. In late Pliocene time carbonate delta(13)C values become depleted| from an average of -5.1% between 3.9 and 3.5 Ma to -7.3%. (VPDB) between 2.75 and 2.25 Ma| recording an increase in C3 plants at the expense of C4 grasses. This finding suggests that summer precipitation decreased in the study area from 3.8 to 2.5 Ma| possibly due to a weakening of the summer monsoon. The absence of vertic paleosols in post-2.8 Ma deposits supports this hypothesis. The increase in abundance of calcic paleosols through time suggests a long-term increase in aridity. A gradual enrichment of about 2%. in delta(18)O values from 3.9 to 0.7 Ma also likely resulted from increased aridification and evaporative enrichment of soil water. Our findings suggest that global cooling in late Pliocene time resulted in increased aridity in southern California due to decreased monsoonal activity and the end of persistent El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The observed enrichment in delta(18)O in the Fish Creek-Vallecito basin is opposite the change that would be produced by the onset of a rain shadow| suggesting that significant uplift of the Peninsular Ranges occurred before 3.8 Ma. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12539,2011,3,3,Politics and Economics of Second-Best Regulation of Greenhouse Gases: The Importance of Regulatory Credibility,Compared with economically ideal policies| actual limits on global warming gases are likely to be "second-best" in many ways. Most studies focus on "second-best" approaches such as delaying emission controls in developing countries| constraining international emission trading| or regulating gases piecemeal by sector rather than equally across the whole economy. We show that another second-best approach-lacking of regulatory credibility-imposes up to six times the extra costs on the economy when compared with all other "second-best" factors combined. When regulatory rules are not believable then firms and other agents become short-sighted and unable to make optimal investments in research and development as well as long-lived technologies. Although analysts have largely ignored this issue| low credibility is commonplace when governments tackle international problems because international institutions such as treaties are usually weak and fickle. Governments can help solve credibility problems with strategies such as "pre-committing" regulations into domestic law that is usually more credible than international commitments. We show that China| for example| can justify unilateral| emission controls because such pre-commitment would encourage Chinese firms to invest with a clearer eye to the future.
3492,2011,2,4,Population decline of the White-fronted Chat (Epthianura albifrons) in New South Wales| Australia,Habitat modification through urbanisation and the alteration of the natural flows of rivers is a major contributor to the global decline of birds occupying specialist habitats. We measured the extent and pattern of change in range and relative abundance over 25 years of the White-fronted Chat| a small passerine that is predominantly found in saltmarsh. A particular focus of the study was the population in the Sydney region| which is now restricted to two locations in which we measured the response of birds to human disturbance. A significant decline of 65% in the reporting rate of White-fronted Chats was observed over the 25 years| with a decline of 44% over the last 10 years in New South Wales. Historical analysis of the White-fronted Chat in the Sydney region revealed a change in geographical distribution| with the current population now confined to only two of 56 former locations. Surveys of these locations concluded that in 2008| nine White-fronted Chats remained at Newington Nature Reserve and similar to 20 at Towra Point Nature Reserve. Measurements of the distance at which foraging birds flushed from an approaching observer suggest that this species is more sensitive to human disturbance than other co-occurring species. This study documents the decline of a species listed in 2010 as vulnerable under the New South Wales Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995| and confirms the need for recovery planning to prevent the further loss of populations| particularly those in the highly urbanised coastal zone. 12180,2011,2,4,Population dynamics of tundra voles in relation to configuration of willow thickets in southern arctic tundra,The areal extent and configuration of thickets of willow shrubs are currently changing in the Arctic both as an effect of global warming and changed browsing pressure of reindeer. These changes have been predicted to impact the distribution and abundance of wildlife species relying on willow thickets as habitat. We assessed the relation between variables quantifying willow thicket configuration and population dynamics of tundra voles (Microtus oeconomus) in three riparian regions in Finnmark| northern Norway| which were subject to intense browsing by semi-domesticated reindeer. The tundra vole| which exhibits 5-year population cycles in Finnmark| is the dominant small rodent species in riparian landscape elements in southern arctic tundra. In the course of a 4-year trapping study| tundra vole populations went through the cyclic phases of increase| peak and crash| however| with distinct differences between the three regions in the population dynamics. Within regions| the occupancy pattern during the increase phase was positively related to willow thicket configuration (in particular edge density and willow height) only in the region attaining the highest abundance and occupancy. However| local abundance was not clearly related to habitat features within any regions. The lack of consistency in the response of tundra vole populations to willow thicket configuration| as well as the positive relation between the degree of thicket shredding and tundra vole habitat occupancy in one of the regions| indicates that tundra voles will not be much affected by climate or browsing induced changes in the shrubbiness of the tundra in the future. 11861,2011,3,3,Porous covalent electron-rich organonitridic frameworks as highly selective sorbents for methane and carbon dioxide,Carbon dioxide capture from point sources like coal-fired power plants is considered to be a solution for stabilizing the CO(2) level in the atmosphere to avoid global warming. Methane is an important energy source that is often highly diluted by nitrogen in natural gas. For the separation of CO(2) and CH(4) from N(2) in flue gas and natural gas| respectively| sorbents with high and reversible gas uptake| high gas selectivity| good chemical and thermal stability| and low cost are desired. Here we report the synthesis and CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2) adsorption properties of hierarchically porous electron-rich covalent organonitridic frameworks (PECONFs). These were prepared by simple condensation reactions between inexpensive| commercially available nitridic and electron-rich aromatic building units. The PECONF materials exhibit high and reversible CO(2) and CH(4) uptake and exceptional selectivities of these gases over N(2). The materials do not oxidize in air up to temperature of 400 degrees C. 3272,2011,2,3,Possible effects of global climate change on the ecosystem of Lake Tanganyika,Any change in the air temperature| wind speed| precipitation| and incoming solar radiation induced by increasing greenhouse gasses and climate change will directly influence lakes and other water bodies. The influence can cause changes in the physical (water temperature| stratification| transparency)| chemical (nutrient loading| oxygen) and biological (structure and functioning of the ecosystem) components of the Lake. In this work an influence of the likely effects of the climate change on the above three components of Lake Tanganyika are studied by means of a simple ecological model. Simulations for the years 2002-2009 have been performed using the wind and solar radiation data from the National Centres for Environmental Protection (NCEP) reanalysis. Various possible climatic scenarios are studied by changing the surface layer depth| its temperature and the wind stress. Any change in any of the above physical forcing parameters modifies the timing and intensity of the dry season peaks of the biogeochemical parameters. It is seen that the gross production increases as temperature of the surface layer increases and its depth decreases. High temperature and low wind stress| reduces the biomass. The effects of a slight increase in lake water temperature on the Lake Tanganyika ecosystem might be mitigated by increased windiness| if the latter was sufficient to induce greater mixing. 11874,2011,2,4,Possible effects of global warming on fish recruitment: shifts in spawning season and latitudinal distribution can alter growth of fish early life stages through changes in daylength,Changes in growth rates| shifts in the spawning season| and shifts in the spawning area (latitude) are expected after an increase in sea temperature resulting from global warming. Fish can avoid higher temperatures by a poleward shift in the spawning area and a temporal shift in spawning timing. However| these shifts will include changes in daylength experienced during their early life stages. To understand comprehensively the possible effects of global warming on fish recruitment| effects of temperature and daylength on growth| daily ration| and growth efficiency of black rockfish| Sebastes cheni| a dominant species in coastal waters of the western North Pacific| were examined under wild and laboratory conditions. The growth rate was elevated at higher temperatures between 11.1 and 21.3 degrees C. Growth efficiency was highest at 16 degrees C. The effect of photoperiod on growth was also significant| with enhanced growth resulting from the longer daylength. The effect of shifts in spawning season and spawning area would differ among fish species and spawning season. Comparison of early growth under different daylength conditions between S. cheni and ayu| Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis| indicated that the shifts in spawning season and spawning area would have different effects on fish early life stages (FELSs) related to changes in daylength. Changes in daylength resulting from a poleward shift in the spawning area will have opposite effects for summer- and winter-growing FELSs| and the effects are more prominent at higher latitudes. 12325,2011,2,4,Possible Impact of Global Warming on the Evolution of Hemagglutinins from Influenza A Viruses,Objective To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses| because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world. Methods 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time-series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global| northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures| to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point-to-point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species. Results The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction. Conclusion Global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses. 12384,2011,2,4,Possible impact of rising sea levels on vector-borne infectious diseases,Background: Vector-borne infectious diseases are a significant cause of human and animal mortality and morbidity. Modeling studies predict that changes in climate that accompany global warming will alter the transmission risk of many vector-borne infectious diseases in different parts of the world. Global warming will also raise sea levels| which will lead to an increase in saline and brackish water bodies in coastal areas. The potential impact of rising sea levels| as opposed to climate change| on the prevalence of vector-borne infectious diseases has hitherto been unrecognised. Presentation of the hypothesis: Mosquito species possessing salinity-tolerant larvae and pupae| and capable of transmitting arboviruses and parasites are found in many parts of the world. An expansion of brackish and saline water bodies in coastal areas| associated with rising sea levels| can increase densities of salinity-tolerant vector mosquitoes and lead to the adaptation of freshwater vectors to breed in brackish and saline waters. The breeding of non-mosquito vectors may also be influenced by salinity changes in coastal habitats. Higher vector densities can increase transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases in coastal localities| which can then spread to other areas. Testing the hypothesis: The demonstration of increases in vector populations and disease prevalence that is related to an expansion of brackish/saline water bodies in coastal areas will provide the necessary supportive evidence. However the implementation of specific vector and disease control measures to counter the threat will confound the expected findings. Implications of the hypothesis: Rising sea levels can act synergistically with climate change and then interact in a complex manner with other environmental and socio-economic factors to generate a greater potential for the transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases. The resulting health impacts are likely to be particularly significant in resource-poor countries in the tropics and semi-tropics. Some measures to meet this threat are outlined. 3210,2011,3,2,Post-combustion CO(2) capture with chemical absorption: A state-of-the-art review,Global concentration of CO(2) in the atmosphere is increasing rapidly. CO(2) emissions have an impact on global climate change. Effective CO(2) emission abatement strategies such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are required to combat this trend. There are three major approaches for CCS: post-combustion capture| pre-combustion capture and oxyfuel process. Post-combustion capture offers some advantages as existing combustion technologies can still be used without radical changes on them. This makes post-combustion capture easier to implement as a retrofit option (to existing power plants) compared to the other two approaches. Therefore| post-combustion capture is probably the first technology that will be deployed. This paper aims to provide a state-of-the-art assessment of the research work carried out so far in post-combustion capture with chemical absorption. The technology will be introduced first| followed by required preparation of flue gas from power plants to use this technology. The important research programmes worldwide and the experimental studies based on pilot plants will be reviewed. This is followed by an overview of various studies based on modelling and simulation. Then the focus is turned to review development of different solvents and process intensification. Based on these| we try to predict challenges and potential new developments from different aspects such as new solvents| pilot plants| process heat integration (to improve efficiency)| modelling and simulation| process intensification and government policy impact. (C) 2010 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12404,2011,4,3,Post-fire soil fluxes of CO(2)| CH(4) and N(2)O along the Colorado Front Range,Wildfires affect Rocky Mountain ecosystems across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Many of the resulting changes are greatest for environmental factors| such as substrate and microclimate that control exchanges of greenhouse gases. We investigated this link to understand how time since fire influences the cycling of these gases through ponderosa pine forests. We measured and compared trace gas flux rates between recently burned sites and topographical aspects (north- and south-facing slopes). We calculated the ability of five factors (soil temperature| soil moisture| fire severity| aspect and time since fire) to describe the variability in the flux rates. Our study revealed that carbon dioxide (CO(2)) fluxes were significantly different between sites; however| methane (CH(4)) uptake was not different between sites or aspects. Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) fluxes had a significant interaction between site and aspect. Using a likelihood approach| we determined the strength of support in the data for model combinations of five variables. Of these| the single variable models soil moisture| time since fire and severity best described the CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O flux data respectively. Our data show that following a forest fire in the Colorado Front Range| >98% of the global warming potential of the measured soil-atmosphere fluxes is contributed by the soil CO(2) flux. 12388,2011,3,3,Potential and cost of carbon sequestration in Indian agriculture: Estimates from long-term field experiments,Carbon sequestration in tropical soils has potential for mitigating global warming and increasing agricultural productivity. We analyzed 26 long-term experiments (LTEs) in different agro-climatic zones (ACZs) of India to assess the potential and cost of C sequestration. Data on initial and final soil organic C (SOC) concentration in the recommended N| P and K (NPK); recommended N| P and K plus farmyard manure (NPK + FYM) and unfertilized (control) treatments were used to calculate carbon sequestration potential (CSP) i.e.. capacity to sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) by increasing SOC stock| under different nutrient management scenarios. In most of the LTEs wheat equivalent yields were higher in the NPK + FYM treatment than the NPK treatment. However| partial factor productivity (PFP) was more with the NPK treatment. Average SOC concentration of the control treatment was 0.54%| which increased to 0.65% in the NPK treatment and 0.82% in the NPK + FYM treatment. Compared to the control treatment the NPK + FYM treatment sequestered 0.33 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) whereas the NPK treatment sequestered 0.16 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1). The CSP in different nutrient management scenarios ranged from 2.1 to 4.8 Mg C ha(-1) during the study period (average 16.9 yr) of the LTEs. In 17 out of 26 LTEs| the NPK + FYM treatment had higher SOC and also higher net return than that of the NPK treatment. In the remaining 9 LTEs SOC sequestration in the NPK + FYM treatment was accomplished with decreased net return suggesting that these are economically not attractive and farmers have to incur into additional cost to achieve C sequestration. The feasibility of SOC sequestration in terms of availability of FYM and other organic sources has been discussed in the paper. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3299,2011,3,2,Potential CO(2) emissions mitigation through forest prescribed burning: A case study in Patagonia| Argentina,Wildland fire is a natural force that has shaped most vegetation types of the world. However| its inappropriate management during the last century has led to more frequent and catastrophic fires. Wildland fires are also recognized as one of the sources of CO(2) and other greenhouse gases (GHG) that influence global climate change. As one of the techniques used to reduce the risk of destructive wildfires| prescribed burning has the potential of mitigating carbon emissions| and effectively contributes to the efforts proposed as part of the Clean Development Mechanism within the Kyoto protocol. In order to apply this concept to a real case| a simulation study was conducted in pine afforestation in the Andean region of Patagonia| Argentina| with the objective of evaluating the potential of prescribed burning for reducing GHG emissions. The scenario was established for a ten year period| in which simulated prescribed burning was compared to the traditional management scheme| which included the probability of annual average of wildfire occurrence based on available wildfire statistics. The two contrasting scenarios were: (1) managed afforestation| affected by the annual average rate of wildfires occurred in the same type of afforestation in the region| without prescribed burning| and (2) same as (1) but with the application of simulated prescribed burning. In order to estimate carbon stocks| and CO2 removals and emissions| we followed the guidelines given for GHG inventories on the Agriculture| Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) sector of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)| while the terminology used was the established by IPCC (2003). Data of afforested area| thinnings| and biomass growth were taken from previous surveys in the study area. Downed dead wood and litter (forest fuel load| FFL) was estimated adjusting equations fitted to those fuels| based on field data. Results show that comparing the two scenarios| prescribed burning reduced CO2 emissions by 44% compared to the situation without prescribed burning. The prescribed burning scenario represented about 12% of the total emissions (prescribed burning plus wildfires). Furthermore| avoided wildfires by simulated prescribed burning allowed an additional 78% GHG emissions mitigation due to extra biomass growth. Simulated prescribed burning in commercial afforestation of Patagonia appears to be an effective management practice not only to prevent wildfires| but also an efficient tool to mitigate GHG emissions. However| more studies in different scenarios would be needed to generalize these benefits to other ecosystems. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12439,2011,4,4,Potential evaporation trends over land between 1983-2008: driven by radiative fluxes or vapour-pressure deficit?,We model the Penman potential evaporation (PE) over all land areas of the globe for the 25-yr period 1983-2008| relying on radiation transfer models (RTMs) for the shortwave and longwave fluxes. Penman's PE is determined by two factors: available energy for evaporation and ground to atmosphere vapour transfer. Input to the PE model and RTMs comprises satellite cloud and aerosol data| as well as data from reanalyses. PE is closely linked to pan evaporation| whose trends have sparked controversy in the community| since the factors responsible for the observed pan evaporation trends are not determined with consensus. Our particular interest is the temporal evolution of PE| and the provided insight to the observed trends of pan evaporation. We examine the decadal trends of PE and various related physical quantities| such as net solar flux| net longwave flux| water vapour saturation deficit and wind speed. Our findings are the following: Global warming has led to a larger water vapour saturation deficit. The periods 1983-1989| 1990-1999| and 2000-2008 were characterised by decreasing| increasing| and slightly decreasing PE| respectively. In these last 25 yr| global dimming/brightening cycles generally increased the available energy for evaporation. PE trends seem to follow more closely the trends of energy availability than the trends of the atmospheric capability for vapour transfer| at most locations on the globe| with trends in the Northern hemisphere significantly larger than in the Southern. These results support the hypothesis that global potential evaporation trends are attributed primarily to secular changes in the radiation fluxes| and secondarily to vapour transfer considerations. 3166,2011,2,4,Potential for high-latitude marine invasions along western North America,Aim High-latitude regions host many fewer non-native species than temperate ones. The low invasion loads of these colder regions may change with increases in human-mediated propagule supply. We test the hypothesis that colonization by non-native species that have already invaded temperate shorelines would be precluded by environmental conditions if they were introduced to Alaska and other high-latitude regions by shipping or other vectors. Location Pacific coast of North America as well as coastal oceans world-wide. Methods Using 16 habitat descriptors in ecological niche models| we characterized the conditions throughout the native and introduced distributions of four marine species (Amphibalanus improvisus| Carcinus maenas| Littorina saxatilis and Styela clava) that have invaded multiple global regions to test the extent to which suitable conditions for these species exist in Alaska and other high-latitude regions under current and predicted future climate scenarios. Results Models projected environmental match for all four species in many areas beyond their present range limits| suggesting that Alaska and other high-latitude shorelines are currently vulnerable to invasion by non-native species that occur in lower latitudes. Main conclusions Given current and possibly increasing human-mediated species transfers and suitable environmental conditions that exist now and with projected warming| policy and management efforts are urgently needed to minimize invasion opportunities at high latitudes. 11556,2011,2,4,Potential impact of spatial patterns of future atmospheric warming on Asian dust emission,Spatial patterns of future atmospheric warming presented by climate model projections indicate that the temperatures of the lower troposphere will increase markedly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and also the upper troposphere at low-middle latitudes. In this study| potential impacts of the spatial patterns of future atmospheric warming on Asian dust emission were investigated by performing numerical experiments using a dynamical downscaling method. After three significant Asian dust outbreak events were reproduced as control runs| initial and boundary conditions of the control runs were updated by adding differences in atmospheric variables between the future climate (2091-2100) and the recent climate (1991-2000) to execute pseudo global warming runs. The results showed that the dust emission fluxes in the main Asian dust sources (MADSs)| i.e.| the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts| decrease markedly in the future climate condition. The future decreases in the dust emission fluxes are likely to be caused by a combination of the relatively large increases in sea level pressures (SLPs) in MADSs and the small SLP changes to the north of MADSs| which reduces the meridional SLP gradients between the two areas and consequently weakens cold air outbreaks. The large SLP increases in MADSs may be due to a northward shift of storm tracks and increased atmospheric stabilities caused by the large upper-tropospheric warming at low-middle latitudes. The small SLP changes to the north of MADSs corresponded to the large increases in surface air temperatures| which would be influenced by the large lower-tropospheric warming at high latitudes. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3237,2011,4,4,Potential of herbarium records to sequence phenological pattern: a case study of Aconitum heterophyllum in the Himalaya,Several pieces of evidence indicate that global climate change is affecting biological systems all across the world. Phenology is one of the tools that may indicate changing patterns. The paper focuses on the phenological pattern of alpine/sub-alpine species Aconitum heterophyllum| a high-value medicinal herb of the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR)| a global hotspot and known to be sensitive to climatic change. In all 117 herbarium specimens of the species collected from three provinces (Western Himalaya| North West Himalaya and Trans Himalaya) of the region were recorded. Historic herbarium records (1848-2003) were analyzed to predict the flowering patterns using Generalized Additive Model (GAM) in view of complexity in the herbarium-based data structure. GAM indicated that the flowering time responded significantly| 26 days earlier per 1|000 m (P < 0.02). Likewise| the model showed significantly earlier flowering (17-25 days) during the last 100 years (P < 0.01). Moreover| maximum temperature of winter (December-February) explained increasing trends at both elevations (lower and mid) and mean winter temperature influenced the early flowering time (19-27 days) with an increase of 1A degrees C. The overall early flowering of A. heterophyllum may perhaps be considered as indicator of climate change; however| more datasets of herbarium records are required to further strengthen this premise. This study was undertaken to show that herbarium records could be utilized as a potential resource for assessing climate change using GAM. 12786,2011,2,4,Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty,Water resources management is in a difficult transition phase| trying to accommodate large uncertainties associated with climate change while struggling to implement a difficult set of principles and institutional changes associated with integrated water resources management. Water management is the principal medium through which projected impacts of global warming will be felt and ameliorated. Many standard hydrological practices| based on assumptions of a stationary climate| can be extended to accommodate numerous aspects of climate uncertainty. Classical engineering risk and reliability strategies developed by the water management profession to cope with contemporary climate uncertainties can also be effectively employed during this transition period| while a new family of hydrological tools and better climate change models are developed. An expansion of the concept of "robust decision making|'' coupled with existing analytical tools and techniques| is the basis for a new approach advocated for planning and designing water resources infrastructure under climate uncertainty. Ultimately| it is not the tools and methods that need to be revamped as much as the suite of decision rules and evaluation principles used for project justification. They need to be aligned to be more compatible with the implications of a highly uncertain future climate trajectory| so that the hydrologic effects of that uncertainty are correctly reflected in the design of water infrastructure. 12625,2011,2,4,Precipitation effects on temperature-A case study in China,To discover the mechanism of the continuous summer temperature decline in certain regions against significant global warming| 456 national meteorological observational stations with long term of observed daily temperature and precipitation data were applied to analyze the relationship between precipitation and temperature. Results show that there is a significant negative correlation between precipitation and temperature| indicating that precipitation influences temperature significantly: the more the precipitation| the lower the temperature| and vice versa. The precipitation effect on temperature can reasonably interpret the typical summer temperature in Southwest China and can partly explain why global warming is more significant in winter than in summer and more significant in higher latitude areas than in lower latitude. 12229,2011,2,4,Precipitation response to land subsurface hydrologic processes in atmospheric general circulation model simulations,Several studies have established that soil moisture increases after adding a groundwater component in land surface models| owing to the additional supply of subsurface water. However| the impact of groundwater on the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation has received little attention. This study explores how a groundwater representation in land surface models alters precipitation distributions through coupled groundwater-land-atmosphere simulations. Results indicate that the addition of groundwater yields a global increase in soil water content and evapotranspiration| a decrease in surface air temperature| and an increase in cloud cover fraction. These result in globally inhomogeneous changes in precipitation. In the boreal summer| tropical land regions show a positive anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere and a negative anomaly in the Southern Hemisphere. As a result| an asymmetric dipole is found over tropical land regions along the equator. Furthermore| in the transition climatic zone where the land and atmosphere are strongly coupled| precipitation also increases. Two main mechanisms are suggested for the two different regions with increased precipitation. The "rich-get-richer" mechanism is responsible for the positive precipitation anomalies over the tropical land regions| while a positive feedback of land-atmosphere interaction is the major contributor to increased precipitation over central North America. This study highlights the importance of land subsurface hydrologic processes in the climate system and has further implications for global water cycle dynamics. 11922,2011,2,4,Predicted changes in vegetation structure affect the susceptibility to invasion of bryophyte-dominated subarctic heath,Background and Aims A meta-analysis of global change experiments in arctic tundra sites suggests that plant productivity and the cover of shrubs| grasses and dead plant material (i.e. litter) will increase and the cover of bryophytes will decrease in response to higher air temperatures. However| little is known about which effects these changes in vegetation structure will have on seedling recruitment of species and invasibility of arctic ecosystems. Methods A field experiment was done in a bryophyte-dominated| species-rich subarctic heath by manipulating the cover of bryophytes and litter in a factorial design. Three phases of seedling recruitment (seedling emergence| summer seedling survival| first-year recruitment) of the grass Anthoxanthum alpinum and the shrub Betula nana were analysed after they were sown into the experimental plots. Key Results Bryophyte and litter removal significantly increased seedling emergence of both species but the effects of manipulations of vegetation structure varied strongly for the later phases of recruitment. Summer survival and first-year recruitment were significantly higher in Anthoxanthum. Although bryophyte removal generally increased summer survival and recruitment| seedlings of Betula showed high mortality in early August on plots where bryophytes had been removed. Conclusions Large species-specific variation and significant effects of experimental manipulations on seedling recruitment suggest that changes in vegetation structure as a consequence of global warming will affect the abundance of grasses and shrubs| the species composition and the susceptibility to invasion of subarctic heath vegetation. 12089,2011,2,4,Predicted levels of future ocean acidification and temperature rise could alter community structure and biodiversity in marine benthic communities,A mesocosm experiment was conducted to quantify the effects of reduced pH and elevated temperature on an intact marine invertebrate community. Standardised faunal communities| collected from the extreme low intertidal zone using artificial substrate units| were exposed to one of eight nominal treatments (four pH levels: 8.0| 7.7| 7.3 and 6.7| crossed with two temperature levels: 12 and 16 degrees C). After 60 days exposure communities showed significant changes in structure and lower diversity in response to reduced pH. The response to temperature was more complex. At higher pH levels (8.0 and 7.7) elevated temperature treatments contained higher species abundances and diversity than the lower temperature treatments. In contrast| at lower pH levels (7.3 and 6.7)| elevated temperature treatments had lower species abundances and diversity than lower temperature treatments. The species losses responsible for these changes in community structure and diversity were not randomly distributed across the different phyla examined. Molluscs showed the greatest reduction in abundance and diversity in response to low pH and elevated temperature| whilst annelid abundance and diversity was mostly unaffected by low pH and was higher at the elevated temperature. The arthropod response was between these two extremes with moderately reduced abundance and diversity at low pH and elevated temperature. Nematode abundance increased in response to low pH and elevated temperature| probably due to the reduction of ecological constraints| such as predation and competition| caused by a decrease in macrofaunal abundance. This community-based mesocosm study supports previous suggestions| based on observations of direct physiological impacts| that ocean acidification induced changes in marine biodiversity will be driven by differential vulnerability within and between different taxonomical groups. This study also illustrates the importance of considering indirect effects that occur within multispecies assemblages when attempting to predict the consequences of ocean acidification and global warming on marine communities. 11783,2011,4,3,Predicting daily ozone concentration maxima using fuzzy time series based on a two-stage linguistic partition method,Air pollution is a result of global warming| greenhouse effects| and acid rain. Especially in highly industrialization areas| air pollution has become a major environmental issue. Poor air quality has both acute and chronic effects on human health. The detrimental effects of ambient ozone on human health and the Earth's ecosystem continue to be a national concern in Taiwan. The pollutant standard index (PSI) has been adopted to assess the degree of air pollution in Taiwan. The standardized daily air quality report provides a simple number on a scale of 0 to 500 related to the health effects of air quality levels. The report focuses on health and the current PSI subindices to reflect measured ozone (O(3)) concentrations. Therefore| this study uses the O(3) attribute to evaluate air quality. In an effort to forecast daily maximum ozone concentrations| many researchers have developed daily ozone forecasting models. However| this continuing worldwide environmental problem suggests the need for more accurate models. This paper proposes two new fuzzy time series based on a two-stage linguistic partition method to predict air quality with daily maximum O(3) concentration: Stage 1| use the fuzzy time series based on the cumulative probability distribution approach (CPDA) to partition the universe of discourse into seven intervals; Stage 2| use two linguistic partition methods| the CPDA and the uniform discretion method (UDM)| to repartition each interval into three subintervals. To verify the forecasting performance of the proposed methods in detail| the practical collected data is used as and evaluating dataset; five other methodologies (AR| MA| ARMA| Chen's and Vu's) are used as comparison models. The proposed methods both show a greatly improved performance in daily maximal ozone concentration prediction accuracy compared with the other models. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12660,2011,2,4,Predicting wetland distribution under climate warming based on radial basic function network in the Great Xing'an Mountains,Wetland as a transition ecosystem between terrestrial and marine ecosystems proved to be more vulnerable to hydrological conditions and climate changes. Global warming had been widely accepted in scientific community. The Great Xing'an Mountains| located in northeast China| has a large area of wetlands with rare human disturbance. The predictions of the global circulation model CGCM3 (the third generation coupled global climate model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis) indicated that the temperature in the Great Xing'an Mountains will rise by 2-4 degrees C over the next 100 years. This paper predicted the potential distributions of wetlands in this area under the current and warming climate condition using RBF (Radial Basic Function) network method. This predication was carried out with 18 environmental variables which reflect the climate and topography conditions. The model prediction results for all three future climate scenarios show that the wetland area in the Great Xing'an Mountains tends to decrease| while higher emission will cause drastic shrinkage of wetland distributions. About 30% of wetland area will disappear by 2050. The area will decrease 61.94%| 76.88% and 85.75%| respectively| under CGCM3-B1| CGCM3-A1B and CGCM3-A2 by 2100. Spatially| wetlands may begin to disappear from sides to center and south to north under climate warming. Under CGCM3-B1| the loss of wetlands may mainly occur in the southern hills with flatterrain| and some may occur in the northern hills and intermontane plains. Under CGCM3-A1B| severely vanishing of wetlands is predicted. Under CGCM3-A2| only small area of wetlands may remain in the north of high mountains. 12114,2011,4,4,Prediction of daily rainfall state in a river basin using statistical downscaling from GCM output,Conventional statistical downscaling techniques for prediction of multi-site rainfall in a river basin fail to capture the correlation between multiple sites and thus are inadequate to model the variability of rainfall. The present study addresses this problem through representation of the pattern of multi-site rainfall using rainfall state in a river basin. A model based on K-means clustering technique coupled with a supervised data classification technique| namely Classification And Regression Tree (CART)| is used for generation of rainfall states from large-scale atmospheric variables in a river basin. The K-means clustering is used to derive the daily rainfall state from the historical daily multi-site rainfall data. The optimum number of clusters in the observed rainfall data is obtained after application of various cluster validity measures to the clustered data. The CART model is then trained to establish relationship between the daily rainfall state of the river basin and the standardized| dimensionally-reduced National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis climatic data set. The relationship thus developed is applied to the General Circulation Model (GCM)-simulated| standardized| bias free large-scale climate variables for prediction of rainfall states in future. Comparisons of the number of days falling under different rainfall states for the observed period and the future give the change expected in the river basin due to global warming. The methodology is tested for the Mahanadi river basin in India. 12436,2011,3,2,Prediction of Pre-reduction Shaft Furnace with Top Gas Recycling Technology Aiming to Cut Down CO(2) Emission,Top gas recycling is considered as one of the highest potential technologies to improve reduction efficiency and correspondingly to reduce carbon consumption. As a typical nitrogen free ironmaking process| pre-reduction shaft furnace of COREX (R) process (COREX (R) shaft furnace) for short is suitable to adopt the technology aiming to cut down CO(2) emission. Under the premise of constant total injection volume| three kinds of reducing gas injection methods are numerically studied by employing a two-dimensional mathematical model. The method that 20% of total reducing gas in volume fraction is blasted through normal inlet (NI) while the rest through down pipe inlet (PI) rather than deadman inlet (DI) could apparently improve gas flow in the inactive zone located near the bottom direct reduced iron (DRI) outlet| thus increasing DRI reduction degree to 61% under present calculation conditions. Meanwhile| either decreasing the vertical height of PI or increasing its diameter makes further improvement on furnace efficiency. After adopting top gas recycling to the shaft furnace by NI+PI method with optimal parameters| CO utilization ratio reaches above 46% when DRI reduction degree correspondingly increases by 12%| what's more| CO(2) emission from the whole process is reduced by about 540 Nm(3)/tHM. The results prove that top gas recycling technology promotes reduction efficiency inside shaft furnace and greatly reduces the greenhouse gas emission| which will contribute to suppressing global warming.
12371,2011,4,5,Predictions based on the cumulative curves: Basic principles and nontrivial example,In this paper the new prediction method based on analysis of the integrated (cumulative) curves is suggested. This method includes the procedure of the optimal linear smoothing (POLS) for the finding of optimal trends| independent "reading" of relative fluctuations in terms of beta-distribution function that are formed after subtraction of the calculated trend and the recognition of the proper fitting hypothesis for the integrated optimal trends by the eigen-coordinates method. The combined noninvasive approach was applied to analysis of temperature data obtained from the site http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ related to the global warming (GW) phenomenon. These data are considered as nontrivial examples of verification of new forecasting method. The available data were combined into six files covering the mean/anomalous temperature 1546 month's points covering the period from the January of 1880 up to October of 2008. Besides the global registered points the combined files included in themselves the north/south data points measured independently for both the Earth's hemispheres. The combined new method (preliminary verified on mimic data) applied to these files predicts the changing of the GW period by the global cooling (GC) period that will happen during the years 2038-2136. Besides this important result a new method helps to discover the influence of a small but stable oscillating process with a set of self-similar periods Omega(n) = Omega(0)xi(n)| n = 0| +/- 1| +/- 2| +/- 3| +/- 4 with mean period < T > = 12.55 year. This fact should present interest for ecologists and meteorologists working in this field. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12775,2011,3,4,Preliminary Comparative Life-Cycle Impacts of Streetlight Technology,As part of a streetlight-retrofitting project in Pittsburgh| this study performed a cradle-to-grave life-cycle assessment of four lighting technologies: the widespread high-pressure sodium and metal halide lights| and the newer and more efficient induction and light-emitting-diode technologies. The study used a hybrid life-cycle-assessment approach to build life-cycle models for the various technologies| including manufacturing and installation data for process models and energy supply and input-output data to complete life-cycle models. Three different electricity scenarios were used to examine the sensitivity of the impacts to changes in energy supply: the United States average mix| the regional mix for the ReliabilityFirst Corporation region| and a scenario with 100% wind power. The results show that for all technologies| the impacts of electricity in the use phase dominates the results. Because of their lower wattage| light-emitting diode ( LED) and induction technology perform favorably and similarly. With anticipated improvements in technology| however| LEDs are expected to be more efficient than induction in the near future and have lower environmental impacts by the time that Pittsburgh and other cities buy and install lights as part of these streetlight projects| which have the potential to show large cost and emissions savings. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000064. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers. 12301,2011,4,4,Preliminary investigation of a vapor-open envelope tailored for subtropical climate,Concerning global warming and resource depletion the impact of buildings in subtropical regions is becoming even greater due to a high growth rate of urbanized areas From the viewpoint of building physics the main problem concerning subtropical climate is the high level of humidity in combination with high temperature In this study a flexible building envelope consisting of wood and clay components was developed so that the materials and the assemblies can be easily tailored to comply with local climatic conditions The movement and accumulation of moisture in the wall was of prime concern This has been investigated by means of testing full scale walls in a climate chamber and the corresponding one dimensional transient heat and transfer simulation In order to achieve a consistency between calculation and measurement the individual materials were tested for their hygric and thermal properties Based on these findings attempts were made to calculate the behavior of an optimized wall assembly under real climatic conditions of central Japan As a result it was shown that the hygrothermal behavior of the envelope is predictable by means of the models and the simulation program used and that no risk of interstitial condensation and mold growth was predicted under the real climatic conditions of Kyoto (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved 11560,2011,3,4,Preparation of cis-1|1|1|4|4|4-hexafluorobut-2-ene by cis-selective semi-hydrogenation of perfluoro-2-butyne,Cis-1|1|1|4|4|4-hexafluorobut-2-ene has a zero ozone depletion potential (ODP)| low global warming potential (GWP) and non-flammable properties| so it is believed to be a potential foam expansion agent. For the synthetic process of cis-1|1|1|4|4|4-hexafluorobut-2-ene| the process catalysts are the key factors for its yield and cost. In this paper| the catalysts of palladium attached to porous aluminum fluoride| to active carbon| to Al(2)O(3)| and the blends of palladium and bismuth to AlF(3) used to prepare cis-1|1|1|4|4|4-hexafluorobut-2-ene by cis-selective semi-hydrogenation of perfluoro-2-butyne were investigated. The performance of above-mentioned catalysts was compared in reaction process. The experimental results indicate that the additive of bismuth to palladium catalyst is useful for improving the activity and selectivity compared to Pd/C and Pd/Al(2)O(3). The role of bismuth in the synthetic process is discussed based on the experimental results and theory analysis. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12259,2011,2,3,Preparedness and storm hazards in a global warming world: lessons from Southeast Asia,The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 found an average increase in global surface temperature of 0.74 degrees C between 1906 and 2005. There is general agreement in the literature that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in Southeast Asia will increase with global warming. In particular| the potential impact of associated storm hazards will render the densely populated countries in Southeast Asia vulnerable to such changes in precipitation events. One main adaptation strategy given such impending changes is preparedness. Using existing literature and historical meteorological data| this paper establishes that Southeast Asia is indeed experiencing storms of higher intensities and more frequently. Two case of extreme storm event in Southeast Asia| the extreme high rainfall event in December 2006 in Southern Johor and Typhoon Vamei| are presented to consider the implications of the increased storm activities due to global warming. These two examples also discuss the need for preparedness in adapting to the impact of global warming. 3366,2011,2,4,Present-Day Lake Level Variation from Envisat Altimetry over the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Links with Precipitation and Temperature,Lakes in permafrost regions are highly sensitive to changes in air temperature| snowmelt| and soil frost. In particular| the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is one of the most sensitive regions in the world influenced by global climate change. In this study| we use retracked Enivsat radar altimeter measurements to generate water level change time series over Lake Qinghai and Lake Ngoring in the northeastern QTP and examine their relationships with precipitation and temperature changes. The response of water levels in Lake Qinghai and Lake Ngoring is positive with regards to precipitation amount. There is a negative relationship between water level and temperature change. These findings further the idea that the arid and high-elevation lakes in the northeastern QTP are highly sensitive to climate variations. Water level increases in Lake Qinghai in winter may indicate inputs of subsurface water associated with freeze-thaw cycles in the seasonally frozen ground and the active layer. 12496,2011,2,4,Prevalence of cutaneous reactions to the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) in an adult population,Thaumetopoea pityocampa [pine processionary moth (PPM)] is one of the most important lepidopteran agents causing urticant cutaneous reactions in humans in Mediterranean countries. This species is also expanding northwards| because of global warming. Objectives. To investigate the prevalence| distribution by habitat group and possible risk factors of PPM cutaneous reactions in adults. Methods. A randomly designed survey was carried out on 1224 adults. Results. A point prevalence| estimated after corrections| of 8.7% was obtained (12% rural areas| 9.6% for semi-urban areas| and 4.4% for urban areas). The data showed a significantly higher risk of self-reported symptoms according to sex [p < 0.005; males| adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.84]| habitat (p < 0.0005; rural| aOR 1.8; semi-urban| aOR 1.2)| frequency of visits to pinewood areas (p < 0.005; daily exposure| aOR 2.1)| and occupational exposure (p < 0.0001; aOR 5.04| 90% were males). Airborne contamination was the most important cause of reactions (83.3% of 48 participants who visited the hospital and fulfilled the criteria for a convincing reaction presented with symptoms after walking on/passing by pine tree areas). Conclusions. These findings show that PPM cutaneous reactions are common in this southern European population| including peripheral urban areas| and that the main risk is related to exposure to this insect. 12025,2011,3,3,Preventing Disasters: Public Health Vulnerability Reduction as a Sustainable Adaptation to Climate Change,Global warming could increase the number and severity of extreme weather events. These events are often known to result in public health disasters| but we can lessen the effects of these disasters. By addressing the factors that cause changes in climate| we can mitigate the effects of climate change. By addressing the factors that make society vulnerable to the effects of climate| we can adapt to climate change. To adapt to climate change| a comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction has been proposed. By reducing human vulnerability to disasters| we can lessen-and at times even prevent-their impact. Human vulnerability is a complex phenomenon that comprises social| economic| health| and cultural factors. Because public health is uniquely placed at the community level| it has the opportunity to lessen human vulnerability to climate-related disasters. At the national and international level| a supportive policy environment can enable local adaptation to disaster events. The purpose of this article is to introduce the basic concept of disaster risk reduction so that it can be applied to preventing and mitigating the negative effects of climate change and to examine the role of community-focused public health as a means for lessening human vulnerability and| as a result| the overall risk of climate-related disasters. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2011; 5: 140-148) 12303,2011,3,3,Pricing and affordability of renewable energy in China - A case study of Shandong Province,The global warming and climate change have put enormous pressure on both governments and industries to re-think their attitudes and behaviours towards sustainability issues. The past decades have witnessed a number of renewable energy developments across the world. Even though these developments are not issue-free| it is generally recognized that the benefits outweigh disadvantages. However| there is an increasing level of concern on the high initial cost associated with the renewable energies| which was claimed as one of critical barriers to the promotion of its further developments. A case study approach is adopted in this study to investigate the pricing and affordability issues associated with the renewable energy in China. The policy framework and related statistics are critically reviewed in order to discuss these issues from different stakeholders' perspective in Shandong province| China. It is concluded that the affordability remains a critical issue despite numerous efforts have been made by the Chinese Government and Shandong Provincial Government on renewable power pricing. This study offers a useful reference to pricing and affordability of renewable energy. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12678,2011,3,3,Procedure to use phosphogypsum industrial waste for mineral CO(2) sequestration,Industrial wet phosphoric acid production in Huelva (SW Spain) has led to the controversial stockpiling of waste phosphogypsum by-products| resulting in the release of significant quantities of toxic impurities in salt marshes in the Tinto river estuary. In the framework of the fight against global climate change and the effort to reduce carbon dioxide emissions| a simple and efficient procedure for CO(2) mineral sequestration is presented in this work| using phosphogypsum waste as a calcium source. Our results demonstrate the high efficiency of portlandite precipitation by phosphogypsum dissolution using an alkaline soda solution. Carbonation experiments performed at ambient pressure and temperature resulted in total conversion of the portlandite into carbonate. The fate of trace elements present in the phosphogypsum waste was also investigated| and trace impurities were found to be completely transferred to the final calcite. We believe that the procedure proposed here should be considered not only as a solution for reducing old stockpiles of phosphogypsum wastes| but also for future phosphoric acid and other gypsum-producing industrial processes| resulting in more sustainable production. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3227,2011,2,4,Profiling gene expression responses of coral larvae (Acropora millepora) to elevated temperature and settlement inducers using a novel RNA-Seq procedure,Elevated temperatures resulting from climate change pose a clear threat to reef-building corals; however| the traits that might influence corals' survival and dispersal during climate change remain poorly understood. Global gene expression profiling is a powerful hypothesis-forming tool that can help elucidate these traits. Here| we applied a novel RNA-Seq protocol to study molecular responses to heat and settlement inducers in aposymbiotic larvae of the reef-building coral Acropora millepora. This analysis of a single full-sibling family revealed contrasting responses between short- (4-h) and long-term (5-day) exposures to elevated temperatures. Heat shock proteins were up-regulated only in the short-term treatment| while the long-term treatment induced the down-regulation of ribosomal proteins and up-regulation of genes associated with ion transport and metabolism (Ca(2+) and CO(3)(2-)). We also profiled responses to settlement cues using a natural cue (crustose coralline algae| CCA) and a synthetic neuropeptide (GLW-amide). Both cues resulted in metamorphosis| accompanied by differential expression of genes with known developmental roles. Some genes were regulated only by the natural cue| which may correspond to the recruitment-associated behaviour and morphology changes that precede metamorphosis under CCA treatment| but are bypassed under GLW-amide treatment. Validation of these expression profiles using qPCR confirmed the quantitative accuracy of our RNA-Seq approach. Importantly| qPCR analysis of different larval families revealed extensive variation in these responses depending on genetic background| including qualitative differences (i.e. up-regulation in one family and down-regulation in another). Future studies of gene expression in corals will have to address this genetic variation| which could have important adaptive consequences for corals during global climate change. 12617,2011,4,4,Progress in monitoring high-temperature damage to rice through satellite and ground-based optical remote sensing,The occurrence of rice high-temperature damage (HTD) has increased with global warming. Cultivation of rice is seriously affected by the HTD in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River| which directly affects food security in this region and in the whole of China. It is important to monitor and assess crop HTD using satellite remote sensing information. This paper reviews the recent development of monitoring rice HTD using optical remote sensing information. It includes the use of optical remote sensing information to obtain the regional spatial distribution of high temperatures| mixed-surface temperature retrieval for rice fields based on mixed decomposition information| the development of field and thermal infrared testing and modeling| and the satellite/ground-based remote sensing coupled method for monitoring rice HTD. Finally| the prospects for monitoring crop HTD based on remote sensing information are summarized. 11888,2011,2,4,Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Africa under Global Warming. Part II: East Africa,Probable changes in mean and extreme precipitation in East Africa are estimated from general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Bayesian statistics are used to derive the relative weights assigned to each member in the multimodel ensemble. There is substantial evidence in support of a positive shift of the whole rainfall distribution in East Africa during the wet seasons. The models give indications for an increase in mean precipitation rates and intensity of high rainfall events but for less severe droughts. Upward precipitation trends are projected from early this (twenty first) century. As in the observations| a statistically significant link between sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Indian Ocean and short rains (October-December) in East Africa is simulated in the GCMs. Furthermore| most models project a differential warming of the Indian Ocean during boreal autumn. This is favorable for an increase in the probability of positive Indian Ocean zonal mode events| which have been associated with anomalously strong short rains in East Africa. On top of the general increase in rainfall in the tropics due to thermodynamic effects| a change in the structure of the Eastern Hemisphere Walker circulation is consistent with an increase in East Africa precipitation relative to other regions within the same latitudinal belt. A notable feature of this change is a weakening of the climatological subsidence over eastern Kenya. East Africa is shown to be a region in which a coherent projection of future precipitation change can be made| supported by physical arguments. Although the rate of change is still uncertain| almost all results point to a wetter climate with more intense wet seasons and less severe droughts. 12292,2011,2,3,Projected changes in South Asian summer monsoon by multi-model global warming experiments,South Asian summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall simulation and its potential future changes are evaluated in a multi-model ensemble of global coupled climate models outputs under World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP CMIP3) dataset. The response of South Asian summer monsoon to a transient increase in future anthropogenic radiative forcing is investigated for two time slices| middle (2031-2050) and end of the twenty-first century (2081-2100)| in the non-mitigated Special Report on Emission Scenarios B1| A1B and A2 .There is large inter-model variability in the simulation of spatial characteristics of seasonal monsoon precipitation. Ten out of the 25 models are able to simulate space-time characteristics of the South Asian monsoon precipitation reasonably well. The response of these selected ten models has been examined for projected changes in seasonal monsoon rainfall. The multi-model ensemble of these ten models projects a significant increase in monsoon precipitation with global warming. The substantial increase in precipitation is observed over western equatorial Indian Ocean and southern parts of India. However| the monsoon circulation weakens significantly under all the three climate change experiments. Possible mechanisms for the projected increase in precipitation and for precipitation-wind paradox have been discussed. The surface temperature over Asian landmass increases in pre-monsoon months due to global warming and heat low over northwest India intensifies. The dipole snow configuration over Eurasian continent strengthens in warmer atmosphere| which is conducive for the enhancement in precipitation over Indian landmass. No notable changes have been projected in the El Nio-Monsoon relationship| which is useful for predicting interannual variations of the monsoon. 11876,2011,2,3,Projected expansion of the subtropical biome and contraction of the temperate and equatorial upwelling biomes in the North Pacific under global warming,A climate model that includes a coupled ocean biogeochemistry model is used to define large oceanic biomes in the North Pacific Ocean and describe their changes over the 21st century in response to the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario A2 future atmospheric CO(2) emissions scenario. Driven by enhanced stratification and a northward shift in the mid-latitude westerlies under climate change| model projections demonstrated that between 2000 and 2100| the area of the subtropical biome expands by similar to 30% by 2100| whereas the area of temperate and equatorial upwelling (EU) biomes decreases by similar to 34 and 28%| respectively| by 2100. Over the century| the total biome primary production and fish catch is projected to increase by 26% in the subtropical biome and decrease by 38 and 15% in the temperate and the equatorial biomes| respectively. Although the primary production per unit area declines slightly in the subtropical and the temperate biomes| it increases 17% in the EU biome. Two areas where the subtropical biome boundary exhibits the greatest movement is in the northeast Pacific| where it moves northwards by as much as 1000 km per 100 years and at the equator in the central Pacific| where it moves eastwards by 2000 km per 100 years. Lastly| by the end of the century| there are projected to be more than 25 million km(2) of water with a mean sea surface temperature of 31 degrees C in the subtropical and EU biomes| representing a new thermal habitat. The projected trends in biome carrying capacity and fish catch suggest resource managers might have to address long-term trends in fishing capacity and quota levels. 12692,2011,3,3,Projecting long-run socioeconomic and demographic trends in California under the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios,The State of California is developing and implementing a new generation of environmental policies to transition to a low-carbon economy and energy system in order to reduce the risks of future damages from global climate change. At the same time| it is increasingly clear that climate change impacts are already occurring and that further effects cannot be completely avoided. Thus| anticipating and planning for emerging and potential future climate change impacts in California must complement the state's greenhouse gas mitigation efforts. These impacts will depend substantially on the future evolution of the state's social structure and economy. To support impact studies| this report describes socioeconomic storylines and key scenario elements for California that are broadly consistent with the global "A2" and "B1" storylines in the 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| including qualitative socioeconomic context as well as quantitative projections of key variables such as population| urbanization patterns| economic growth| and electricity prices. 11872,2011,2,4,Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions,During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here| we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection| we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches| differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First| models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range| but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species| however| were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established| including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step| the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040| 2041-2070| and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models| the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand| a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate| as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps can aid in identifying suitable habitats for Ae. albopictus and hence support monitoring and control activities to avoid disease vector establishment. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11732,2011,4,4,Projection of global mean surface air temperature changes in next 40 years: Uncertainties of climate models and an alternative approach,The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the climate projection using climate models that took account of both human and natural factors provided credible quantitative estimates of future climate change; however| the mismatches between the IPCC AR4 model ensembles and the observations| especially the multi-decadal variability (MDV)| have cast shadows on the confidence of the model-based decadal projections of future climate. This paper reports an evaluation of many individual runs of AR4 models in the simulation of past global mean temperature. We find that most of the individual model runs fail to reproduce the MDV of past climate| which may have led to the overestimation of the projection of global warming for the next 40 years or so. Based on such an evaluation| we propose an alternative approach| in which the MDV signal is taken into account| to project the global mean temperature for the next 40 years and obtain that the global warming during 2011-2050 could be much smaller than the AR4 projection. 3287,2011,3,4,Promoting Environmental Public Health in Rapidly Urbanizing Areas of Less-Developed Countries in Africa: A Collaborative Interdisciplinary Training in Ibadan| Nigeria,Globally| urbanization has been occurring more rapidly in small-to-medium-sized cities in less-developed countries of Africa and Asia. Studies have suggested associations between traffic and industry-related air pollutants and adverse health outcomes. These chemical and physical exposure agents have also received increased attention for environmental quality concerns like global climate change. Most research to date| however| was conducted in larger industrialized country urban centers. Ibadan| Nigeria| is a historic city characterized by urban sprawl and increasing modernization as an academic and medical training center but is lacking in the implementation of environmental laws. The authors conducted their first training in Ibadan| Nigeria| May 19-23| 2008| based on initial collaborative work during 2006-2008 as well as a trip in mid-March 2007. They describe the rationale for and components of the training| likely one of the first of its kind in Africa. The title of the training was "Advances in Community Outdoor and Indoor Air and Environmental Quality Monitoring and Exposure Assessment." Content was multimedia and interdisciplinary The authors included lectures| group discussions| field experiences at community and industrial sites with cross-sectional environmental monitoring| and planned pilot studies including master's thesis projects based on real-time| grant-funded monitoring equipment provided to the University of Ibadan| including protocol development demonstrations.
3212,2011,4,3,Prospects of India's energy and emissions for a long time frame,For any nation| sector-wise forecasts of energy demand and emissions are becoming valuable elements in devising its national and international policies relating to energy security| local environment| and global climate change. It is in this context that this work attempts to forecast India's possible energy demands and emissions adopting a key indicator approach on least cost generation expansion optimization methodology for a long time frame. This study developed key indicators for useful-energy demand for end-use sectors such as industry| commerce| and residence. Key indicators for transport sector and non-energy use sectors were developed on transport mobility demand and end-use fuel demand. The main drivers of these key indicators are socio-economic parameters. This work was conducted in a linear programmed (LP) TIMES G5 model on TIMES modeling framework for model horizon of 1990-2100. By the end of the 21st-century| India's energy demands are projected to be about 1825 Mtoe of primary energy| 1263 Mtoe of final energy consumption| 4840 TWh of electricity generations| 723 Mtoe of energy import| and 4414 Mt of CO(2) emissions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12788,2011,2,4,Protracted storage of biospheric carbon in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin,The amount of carbon stored in continental reservoirs such as soils| sediments and the biosphere greatly exceeds the amount of carbon in the atmosphere(1). As such| small variations in the residence time of organic carbon in these reservoirs can produce large variations in the atmospheric inventory of carbon dioxide. One such reservoir is the Ganges-Brahmaputra system draining the Himalayas| which represents one of the largest sources of terrestrial biospheric carbon to the ocean(2). Here| we examine the radiocarbon content of river sediments collected from the Ganges-Brahmaputra drainage basin to determine the residence time of organic carbon in this reservoir. We show that the average age of biospheric organic carbon in the drainage basin ranges from 0.5 to 17 thousand years. The radiocarbon age of plant-derived fatty acids-a proxy for labile terrestrial vegetation-ranges from just 0.05 to 1.3 thousand years. We propose that the bulk ages can be explained by the existence of a refractory| slowly cycling component of the organic carbon pool that is mixed with a younger labile pool. We estimate that this refractory component has an average age of over 15|000 years| and represents up to 20% of total biospheric carbon exported by the Ganges-Brahmaputra system. We suggest that global warming might destabilize this ancient pool of carbon| if warming stimulates microbial decomposition of organic carbon reserves. 11989,2011,2,4,Pyramiding of Ryd2 and Ryd3 conferring tolerance to a German isolate of Barley yellow dwarf virus-PAV (BYDV-PAV-ASL-1) leads to quantitative resistance against this isolate,Barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) is an economically important pathogen of barley| which may become even more important due to global warming. In barley| several loci conferring tolerance to BYDV-PAV-ASL-1 are known| e.g. Ryd2| Ryd3 and a quantitative trait locus (QTL) on chromosome 2H. The aim of the present study was to get information whether the level of tolerance against this isolate of BYDV in barley can be improved by combining these loci. Therefore| a winter and a spring barley population of doubled haploid (DH) lines were genotyped by molecular markers for the presence of the susceptibility or the resistance encoding allele at respective loci (Ryd2| Ryd3| QTL on chromosome 2H) and were tested for their level of BYDV-tolerance after inoculation with viruliferous (BYDV-PAV-ASL-1) aphids in Weld trials. In DH-lines carrying the combination Ryd2 and Ryd3| a significant reduction of the virus titre was detected as compared to lines carrying only one of these genes. Furthermore| spring barley DH-lines with this allele combination also showed a significantly higher relative grain yield as compared to lines carrying only Ryd2 or Ryd3. The QTL on chromosome 2H had only a small effect on the level of tolerance in those lines carrying only Ryd2| or Ryd3 or a combination of both| but the effect in comparison to lines carrying no tolerance allele was significant. Overall| these results show that the combination of Ryd2 and Ryd3 leads to quantitative resistance against BYDV-PAV instead of tolerance. 12495,2011,3,4,Qualitative Assessment of Soil Carbon in a Rehabilitated Forest using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy,Logging and poor shifting cultivation negatively affect initial soil carbon (C) storage| especially at the initial stage of deforestation| as these practices lead to global warming. As a result| an afforestation program is needed to mitigate this problem. This study assessed initial soil C buildup of rehabilitated forests using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The relatively high E4/E6 values of humic acids (HAs) in the rehabilitated forest indicate prominence of aliphatic components| suggesting that the HAs were of low molecular weight. The total acidity| carboxylic (-COOH) and phenolic (-OH) of the rehabilitated forest were found to be consistent with the ranges reported by other researchers. The spectra of all locations were similar because there was no significant difference in the quantities of C in humic acids (CHA) regardless of forest age and soil depth. The spectra showed distinct absorbance at 3290| 1720| 1630| 1510| 1460| 1380| and 1270 cm-1. Increase of band at 1630 and 1510 cm-1 from 0-20 to 40-60 cm were observed| suggesting C buildup from the lowest depths 20-40 and 40-60 cm. However| the CHA content in the soil depths was not different. The band at 1630 cm-1 was assigned to carboxylic and aromatic groups. Increase in peak intensity at 1510 cm-1 was because C/N ratio increased with increasing soil depth. This indicates that decomposition rate decreased with increasing soil depth and decreased with CHA. The finding suggests that FTIR spectroscopy enables the assessment of C composition functional group buildup at different depths and ages. 12620,2011,3,3,Quantification of energy related industrial eco-efficiency of China,Improving eco-efficiency is propitious for saving resources and reducing emissions| and has become a popular route to sustainable development. We define two energy-related eco-efficiencies: energy efficiency (ENE) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-related eco-efficiency (GEE) using energy consumption and the associated GHG emissions as the environmental impacts. Using statistical data| we analyze China's energy consumption and GHG emissions by industrial subsystem and sector| and estimate the ENE and GEE values for China in 2007 as 4.871x10(7) US$/PJ and 4.26x10(8) US$/TgCO(2)eq| respectively. Industry is the primary contributing subsystem of China's economy| contributing 45.2% to the total economic production| using 79.6% of the energy consumed| and generating 91.4% of the total GHG emissions. We distinguish the individual contributions of the 39 industrial sectors to the national economy| overall energy consumption| and GHG emissions| and estimate their energyrelated eco-efficiencies. The results show that although ferrous metal production contributes only 3.5% to the national industrial economy| it consumes the most industrial energy (20% of total)| contributes 16% to the total industrial global warming potential (GWP)| and ranks third in GHG emissions. The power and heat sector ranks first in GHG emissions and contributes one-third of the total industrial GWP| although it only consumes about 8% of total industrial energy and| like ferrous metal production| contributes 3.5% to the national economy. The ENE of the ferrous metal and power and heat sectors are only 8 and 2.1x10(7) US$/PJ| while the GEE for these two sectors are 9 and 4x10(4) US$/GgCO(2)eq| respectively; these are nearly the lowest ENE and GEE values among all 39 industry sectors. Finally| we discuss the possibility of ecoefficiency improvement through a comparison with other countries. 3464,2011,2,4,Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning,Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo| Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming| and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning. 12043,2011,4,4,Quantifying greenhouse-gas emissions from atmospheric measurements: a critical reality check for climate legislation,Emissions reduction legislation relies upon 'bottom-up' accounting of industrial and biogenic greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions at their sources. Yet| even for relatively well-constrained industrial GHGs| global emissions based on 'top-down' methods that use atmospheric measurements often agree poorly with the reported bottom-up emissions. For emissions reduction legislation to be effective| it is essential that these discrepancies be resolved. Because emissions are regulated nationally or regionally| not globally| top-down estimates must also be determined at these scales. High-frequency atmospheric GHG measurements at well-chosen station locations record 'pollution events' above the background values that result from regional emissions. By combining such measurements with inverse methods and atmospheric transport and chemistry models| it is possible to map and quantify regional emissions. Even with the sparse current network of measurement stations and current inverse-modelling techniques| it is possible to rival the accuracies of regional 'bottom-up' emission estimates for some GHGs. But meeting the verification goals of emissions reduction legislation will require major increases in the density and types of atmospheric observations| as well as expanded inverse-modelling capabilities. The cost of this effort would be minor when compared with current investments in carbon-equivalent trading| and would reduce the volatility of that market and increase investment in emissions reduction. 11758,2011,3,4,Quantifying GWI of Wood Pellet Production in the Southern United States and Its Subsequent Utilization for Electricity Production in The Netherlands/Florida,This study attempts to determine global warming impact (GWI) of imported wood pellets from the Southern United States for electricity production in The Netherlands. An attempt is also made to determine GWI of utilizing produced wood pellets within the state of Florida for electricity generation instead of exports. A life-cycle approach is adopted to determine overall GWIs of both the cases. Economic objectives of forest landowners are also incorporated to determine biomass (pulpwood and harvesting residues) availability from a hectare of slash pine plantation. The GWI of a unit of electricity produced at a power plant located at Geertruidenberg| The Netherlands and Gainesville| Florida was 296.4 and 177.5 g of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas| respectively. An overall saving of 72.6% in greenhouse gas emissions was estimated for every kilowatt-hour of electricity generated using imported wood pellets in The Netherlands when compared with coal-based electricity. This value was found to be 82.4% if produced wood pellets are utilized within Florida for electricity generation instead of exports. A need exists to evaluate the potential of other feedstocks for wood pellet production like understory forest biomass. Additionally| macroeconomic and ecological impacts of utilizing forest biomass for wood pellet production needs to be quantified. 12494,2011,2,2,Quantifying immediate radiative forcing by black carbon and organic matter with the Specific Forcing Pulse,Climatic effects of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) differ from those of long-lived greenhouse gases| because they occur rapidly after emission and because they depend upon the region of emission. The distinctive temporal and spatial nature of these impacts is not captured by measures that rely on global averages or long time integrations. Here| we propose a simple measure| the Specific Forcing Pulse (SFP)| to quantify climate warming or cooling by these pollutants| where we define "immediate" as occurring primarily within the first year after emission. SFP is the amount of energy added to or removed from a receptor region in the Earth-atmosphere system by a chemical species| per mass of emission in a source region. We limit the application of SFP to species that remain in the atmosphere for less than one year. Metrics used in policy discussions| such as total forcing or global warming potential| are easily derived from SFP. However| SFP conveys purely physical information without incurring the policy implications of choosing a time horizon for the global warming potential. Using one model (Community Atmosphere Model| or CAM)| we calculate values of SFP for black carbon (BC) and organic matter (OM) emitted from 23 source-region combinations. Global SFP for both atmosphere and cryosphere impacts is divided among receptor latitudes. SFP is usually greater for open-burning emissions than for energy-related (fossil-fuel and biofuel) emissions because of the timing of emission. Global SFP for BC varies by about 45% for energy-related emissions from different regions. This variation would be larger except for compensating effects. When emitted aerosol has larger cryosphere forcing| it often has lower atmosphere forcing because of less deep convection and a shorter atmospheric lifetime. A single model result is insufficient to capture uncertainty. We develop a best estimate and uncertainties for SFP by combining forcing results from 12 additional models. We outline a framework for combining a large number of simple models with a smaller number of enhanced models that have greater complexity. Adjustments for black carbon internal mixing and for regional variability are discussed. Emitting regions with more deep convection have greater model diversity. Our best estimate of global-mean SFP is +1.03 +/- 0.52 GJ g(-1) for direct atmosphere forcing of black carbon| +1.15 +/- 0.53 GJ g(-1) for black carbon including direct and cryosphere forcing| and -0.064 (-0.02| -0.13) GJ g(-1) for organic matter. These values depend on the region and timing of emission. The lowest OM: BC mass ratio required to produce a neutral effect on top-of-atmosphere direct forcing is 15: 1 for any region. Any lower ratio results in positive direct forcing. However| important processes| particularly cloud changes that tend toward cooling| have not been included here. Global-average SFP for energy-related emissions can be converted to a 100-year GWP of about 740 +/- 370 for BC without snow forcing| and 830 +/- 440 with snow forcing. 100-year GWP for OM is -46 (-18| -92). Best estimates of atmospheric radiative impact (without snow forcing) by black and organic matter are +0.47 +/- 0.26 W m(-2) and -0.17 (-0.07| -0.35) W m(-2) for BC and OM| respectively| assuming total emission rates of 7.4 and 45 Tg yr(-1). Anthropogenic forcing is +0.40 +/- 0.18 W m(-2) and -0.13 (-0.05| -0.25) W m(-2) for BC and OM| respectively| assuming anthropogenic emission rates of 6.3 and 32.6 Tg yr(-1). Black carbon forcing is only 18% higher than that given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)| although the value presented here includes enhanced absorption due to internal mixing. 12493,2011,3,4,Quantifying the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Associated with Recycling Hot Mix Asphalt,Market based policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have become increasingly popular in the last decade. These policies provide economic incentives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A life-cycle inventory model was developed to evaluate three alternatives for the management of waste hot mix asphalt (HMA) including| (I) recycling as new aggregate| (2) recycling as new HMA| and (3) disposal in a landfill. Global warming potential| environmental emissions| and total energy use were quantified for each management alternative. The recycling of used asphalt into new HMA results in a reduction of 16 kg CO(2)e compared to landfilling. Recycling used HMA as aggregate reduced GHG emissions by 9 kg CO(2)e. A Monte Carlo analysis on the alternatives showed that the range of reduction for recycling as HMA was 12 to 26 kg CO(2)e and for recycling as aggregate 6 to 11 kg CO(2)e. 12527,2011,2,3,Quantifying uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on river discharge in sub-catchments of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins| China,Quantitative evaluations of the impacts of climate change on water resources are primarily constrained by uncertainty in climate projections from GCMs. In this study we assess uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on river discharge in two catchments of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins that feature contrasting climate regimes (humid and semi-arid). Specifically we quantify uncertainty associated with GCM structure from a subset of CMIP3 AR4 GCMs (HadCM3| HadGEM1| CCSM3.0| IPSL| ECHAM5| CSIRO| CGCM3.1)| SRES emissions scenarios (A1B| A2| B1| B2) and prescribed increases in global mean air temperature (1 degrees C to 6 degrees C). Climate projections| applied to semi-distributed hydrological models (SWAT 2005) in both catchments| indicate trends toward warmer and wetter conditions. For prescribed warming scenarios of 1 degrees C to 6 degrees C| linear increases in mean annual river discharge| relative to baseline (19611990)| for the River Xiangxi and River Huangfuchuan are + 9% and 11% per + 1 degrees C respectively. Intra-annual changes include increases in flood (Q05) discharges for both rivers as well as a shift in the timing of flood discharges from summer to autumn and a rise (24 to 93%) in dry season (Q95) discharge for the River Xiangxi. Differences in projections of mean annual river discharge between SRES emission scenarios using HadCM3 are comparatively minor for the River Xiangxi (13 to 17% rise from baseline) but substantial (73 to 121%) for the River Huangfuchuan. With one minor exception of a slight (-2%) decrease in river discharge projected using HadGEM1 for the River Xiangxi| mean annual river discharge is projected to increase in both catchments under both the SRES A1B emission scenario and 2 degrees rise in global mean air temperature using all AR4 GCMs on the CMIP3 subset. For the River Xiangxi| there is substantial uncertainty associated with GCM structure in the magnitude of the rise in flood (Q05) discharges (-1 to 41% under SRES A1B and -3 to 41% under 2 degrees global warming) and dry season (Q95) discharges (2 to 55% under SRES A1B and 2 to 39% under 2 degrees global warming). For the River Huangfuchuan| all GCMs project a rise in the Q05 flow but there is substantial uncertainty in the magnitude of this rise (7 to 70% under SRES A1B and 2 to 57% under 2 degrees global warming). Differences in the projected hydrological changes are associated with GCM structure in both catchments exceed uncertainty in emission scenarios. Critically| estimated uncertainty in projections of mean annual flows is less than that calculated for extreme (Q05| Q95) flows. The common approach of reporting of climate change impacts on river in terms of mean annual flows masks the magnitude of uncertainty in flows that are of most importance to water management. 11633,2011,4,3,Quantitative estimates of warming by urbanization in South Korea over the past 55 years (1954-2008),The quantitative values of the urban warming effect over city stations in the Korean peninsula were estimated by using the warming mode of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of 55 years of temperature data| from 1954 to 2008. The estimated amount of urban warming was verified by applying the multiple linear regression equation with two independent variables: the rate of population growth and the total population. Through the multiple linear regression equation| we obtained a significance level of 0.05% and a coefficient of determination of 0.60. This means that it is somewhat liable to the estimated effects of urbanization| in spite of the settings of some supposition. The cities that show great warming due to urbanization are Daegu| Pohang| Seoul| and Incheon| which show values of about 1.35| 1.17| 1.16| and 1.10 degrees C| respectively. The areas that showed urban warming less than 0.2 degrees C are Chupungnyeong and Mokpo. On average| the total temperature increase over South Korea was about 1.37 degrees C: the amount of increase caused by the greenhouse effect is approximately 0.60 degrees C| and the amount caused by urban warming is approximately 0.77 degrees C. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3215,2011,2,4,Quantitative Shotgun Proteomics Using a Uniform (15)N-Labeled Standard to Monitor Proteome Dynamics in Time Course Experiments Reveals New Insights into the Heat Stress Response of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii,Crop-plant-yield safety is jeopardized by temperature stress caused by the global climate change. To take countermeasures by breeding and/or transgenic approaches it is essential to understand the mechanisms underlying plant acclimation to heat stress. To this end proteomics approaches are most promising| as acclimation is largely mediated by proteins. Accordingly| several proteomics studies| mainly based on two-dimensional gel-tandem MS approaches| were conducted in the past. However| results often were inconsistent| presumably attributable to artifacts inherent to the display of complex proteomes via two-dimensional-gels. We describe here a new approach to monitor proteome dynamics in time course experiments. This approach involves full (15)N metabolic labeling and mass spectrometry based quantitative shotgun proteomics using a uniform (15)N standard over all time points. It comprises a software framework| IOMIQS| that features batch job mediated automated peptide identification by four parallelized search engines| peptide quantification and data assembly for the processing of large numbers of samples. We have applied this approach to monitor proteome dynamics in a heat stress time course using the unicellular green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii as model system. We were able to identify 3433 Chlamydomonas proteins| of which 1116 were quantified in at least three of five time points of the time course. Statistical analyses revealed that levels of 38 proteins significantly increased| whereas levels of 206 proteins significantly decreased during heat stress. The increasing proteins comprise 25 (co-) chaperones and 13 proteins involved in chromatin remodeling| signal transduction| apoptosis| photosynthetic light reactions| and yet unknown functions. Proteins decreasing during heat stress were significantly enriched in functional categories that mediate carbon flux from CO(2) and external acetate into protein biosynthesis| which also correlated with a rapid| but fully reversible cell cycle arrest after onset of stress. Our approach opens up new perspectives for plant systems biology and provides novel insights into plant stress acclimation. Molecular & Cellular Proteomics 10: 10.1074/mcp.M110.004739| 1-27| 2011. 3404,2011,5,4,Radiation and extinction patterns in Permian floras from North China as indicators for environmental and climate change,Permian continental sequences from North China contain previously unrecognized episodes of plant radiation and elevated extinction. The earliest extinction| in the Lower Shihhotse Formation (Roadian| Guadalupian)| records a 45% floral species loss and is tentatively correlated with global extinctions amongst dinocephalian reptiles. Two younger extinctions are dated by correlating the Illawara Reversal and palaeomagnetic polarity sequences from Shanxi Province against global palaeomagnetic history. Missing data from the Shanxi sequence are evaluated using a novel approach estimating likely maximum and minimum sequence changes that provide age estimates for post-Illawara events in North China. The second extinction in the middle Upper Shihhotse Formation is more significant and is dated to the mid-Capitanian| with a loss of 56% of plant species coinciding with two phases of volcanism of the Emeishan Large Igneous Province in South China| previously linked to the mid-Capitanian marine mass extinction. The youngest extinction in the upper Upper Shihhotse Formation (late Capitanian to mid-Wuchapingian) is catastrophic and represents the end of range in the sequence. Changes in sedimentary facies suggest it to be related to global climatic warming and drying. Other viable causal mechanisms for the extinction episodes include plate motion and collision| global climate change| volcanism and biological competition. 11832,2011,4,4,Radiative efficiencies and global warming potentials using theoretically determined absorption cross-sections for several hydrofluoroethers (HFEs) and hydrofluoropolyethers (HFPEs),Integrated infrared cross-sections and wavenumber positions for the vibrational modes of a range of hydrofluoroethers (HFEs) and hydrofluoropolyethers (HFPEs) have been calculated. Spectra were determined using a density functional method with an empirically derived correction for the wavenumbers of band positions. Radiative efficiencies (REs) were determined using the Pinnock et al. method and were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine global warming potentials (GWPs). For the HFEs and the majority of the molecules in the HG series HFPEs| theoretically determined absorption cross-sections and REs lie within ca. 10% of those determined using measured spectra. For the larger molecules in the HG series and the HG' series of HFPEs| agreement is less good| with theoretical values for the integrated cross-sections being up to 35% higher than the experimental values; REs are up to 45% higher. Our method gives better results than previous theoretical approaches| because of the level of theory chosen and| for REs| because an empirical wavenumber correction derived for perfluorocarbons is effective in predicting the positions of C-F stretching frequencies at around 1250 cm(-1) for the molecules considered here. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12417,2011,4,3,Radiative efficiencies for fluorinated esters: indirect global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers,Density Functional Theory (DFT) has been used with an empirically-derived correction for the wavenumbers of vibrational band positions to predict the infrared spectra of several fluorinated esters (FESs). Radiative efficiencies (REs) were then determined using the method of Pinnock et al. and these were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine the direct global warming potentials of FESs. FESs| in particular fluoroalkylacetates| alkylfluoroacetates and fluoroalkylformates| are potential greenhouse gases and their likely long atmospheric lifetimes and relatively large REs| compared to their parent HFEs| make them active contributors to global warming. Here| we use the concept of indirect global warming potential (indirect GWP) to assess the contribution to the warming of several commonly used HFEs emitted from the Earth's surface| explicitly taking into account that these HFEs will be converted into the corresponding FESs in the troposphere. The indirect GWP can be calculated using the radiative efficiencies and lifetimes of the HFE and its degradation FES products. We found that the GWPs of those studied HFEs which have the smallest direct GWP can be increased by 100-1600% when taking account of the cumulative effect due to the secondary FESs formed during HFE atmospheric oxidation. This effect may be particularly important for non-segregated HFEs and some segregated HFEs| which may contribute significantly more to global warming than can be concluded from examination of their direct GWPs. 12099,2011,3,3,Radiative forcing and global warming potential of perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride,We developed two radiation parameterizations with different resolutions (17-band and 998-band) for perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF(6)) using the updated High-resolution Transmission Molecular Absorption (HITRAN) 2004 database and the correlated k-distribution method. We analyzed the impacts of the two radiation schemes on heating rates. Then we studied their instantaneous radiative efficiency| stratospheric adjusted radiative efficiency| global warming potential (GWP)| and global temperature potential (GTP)| for both clear- and all-sky conditions using a high-resolution radiation scheme. We found that the stratosphere-adjusted radiative efficiencies of C(2)F(6)| CF(4)| and SF(6) for the whole sky were 0.346| 0.098| and 0.680 W m(-2) ppbv(-1)| respectively. Radiative forcing from the industrial revolution to 2005 was 0.001| 0.007| and 0.004 W m(-2)| respectively; and was predicted to rise to 0.008| 0.036| and 0.037 W m(-2)| respectively| by 2100| according to emission scenarios provided by the IPCC. The GWPs of C(2)F(6)| CF(4)| and SF(6) are 17035| 7597| and 31298| respectively| for a time horizon of 100 years relative to CO(2). Their GTPs of pulse and sustained emissions| GTP(P) and GTP(S)| are 22468| 10052| and 40935 and 16498| 7355| and 30341| respectively| for a 100-year time horizon. 12509,2011,4,2,Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector,The year 2000 radiative forcing (RF) due to changes in O(3) and CH(4) (and the CH(4)-induced stratospheric water vapour) as a result of emissions of short-lived gases (oxides of nitrogen (NO(x))| carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons) from three transport sectors (ROAD| maritime SHIPping and AIRcraft) are calculated using results from five global atmospheric chemistry models. Using results from these models plus other published data| we quantify the uncertainties. The RF due to short-term O(3) changes (i.e. as an immediate response to the emissions without allowing for the long-term CH(4) changes) is positive and highest for ROAD transport (31 mW m(-2)) compared to SHIP (24 mW m(-2)) and AIR (17 mW m(-2)) sectors in four of the models. All five models calculate negative RF from the CH(4) perturbations| with a larger impact from the SHIP sector than for ROAD and AIR. The net RF of O(3) and CH(4) combined (i.e. including the impact of CH(4) on ozone and stratospheric water vapour) is positive for ROAD (+16(+/- 13) (one standard deviation) mW m(-2)) and AIR (+6(+/- 5) inW m(-2)) traffic sectors and is negative for SHIP (-18(+/- 10) inW m(-2)) sector in all five models. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potentials (GTP) are presented for AIR NO(x) emissions: there is a wide spread in the results from the 5 chemistry models| and it is shown that differences in the methane response relative to the O(3) response drive much of the spread. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12069,2011,3,3,RADIOACTIVE (85)KR AND CO(2) BALANCE FOR VENTILATION RATE MEASUREMENTS AND GASEOUS EMISSIONS QUANTIFICATION THROUGH NATURALLY VENTILATED BARNS,Animal housing is a major source of gaseous emissions| such as ammonia (NH(3))| methane (CH(4))| nitrous oxide (N(2)O)| and carbon dioxide (CO(2)). Ammonia is an atmospheric pollutant and responsible for eutrophication and soil acidification| while CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O are greenhouse gases (GHG) that contribute to global warming. The quantification of gaseous emissions from livestock buildings with natural ventilation systems is a particularly difficult task and is associated with uncertainties that are largely unknown. One key issue is to measure the ventilation rate and then to quantify the gaseous emissions. Therefore| in this study| the ventilation rate was determined by three different methods simultaneously. Field experiments were carried out to study the ventilation rate in a naturally ventilated dairy barn located in northern Germany during the summer seasons from 2006 to 2010. The air exchange rates (AER) as well as the ventilation rates were determined by the decay of the radioactive tracer krypton-85| the carbon dioxide (CO(2)) balance| which was used as the reference method in this study| and the combined effects of wind pressure and temperature difference forces (WT method). Subsequently| the results were compared with each other by carrying out Pearson correlation analysis and developing a regression model. During each field experiment| continuous measurements of gas concentrations (NH(3)| CO(2)| CH(4)| and N(2)O) inside and outside the building and (85)Kr tracer gas experiments were carried out. Meanwhile| the temperature was measured and recorded inside and outside the barn. Furthermore| the wind velocity was measured. Although the WT method showed minor overestimation by about 1.11 (p < 0.05) times the reference method| it is not reliable because it showed no linear correlation (0.05; p = 0.88) with the reference method. This was due to large fluctuations in the wind velocity (direction and speed)| which negatively affected the WT method| which is basically dependent on wind velocity. In contrast| the (85)Kr tracer gas technique showed a good linear correlation (0.82; p < 0.05) with the reference method| which accentuates that the (85)Kr tracer gas technique is a promising method. However| this technique overestimated the air exchange rate by about 2.05 (p < 0.05) times the reference method. Therefore| the (85)Kr tracer gas technique should be further developed to produce values consistent with those estimated by the reference method. The emissions factors| subject to the reference method| were 32| 157.7| 13736| and 7.9 kg year(-1) AU(-1) for NH(3)| CH(4)| CO(2)| and N(2)O| respectively.
12847,2011,2,4,Rainfall patterns after fire differentially affect the recruitment of three Mediterranean shrubs,In fire-prone environments| the "event-dependent hypothesis" states that plant population changes are driven by the unique set of conditions of a fire (e. g. fire season| climate). Climate variability| in particular changes in rainfall patterns| can be most important for seeder species| since they regenerate after fire from seeds| and for Mediterranean shrublands| given the high yearly variability of rainfall in these ecosystems. Yet| the role of rainfall variability and its interaction with fire characteristics (e. g. fire season) on plant populations has received little attention. Here we investigated the changes in seedling emergence and recruitment of three seeder species (Cistus ladanifer| Erica umbellata and Rosmarinus officinalis) after fires lit during three different years and at two times (early and late) during the fire season. Three plots were burned at each season| for a total of 18 plots burned during the three years. After fire| emerged seedlings were tallied| tagged and monitored during three years (two in the last burning year). Rainfall during the study period was rather variable and| in some years| it was well below average. Postfire seedling emergence varied by a factor of 3 to 12| depending on the species and on the burning year. The bulk of seedling emergence occurred during the first year after fire; seedling recruitment at the end of the study period was tightly correlated with this early emergence. Emergence in Erica and Rosmarinus| but not in Cistus| was correlated with precipitation in the fall and winter immediately after fire| with Erica being the most sensitive to reduced rainfall. Fire season was generally neither an important factor in controlling emergence nor| in particular| recruitment. We discuss how projected changes in rainfall patterns with global warming could alter the balance of species in this shrubland| and could drive some species to near local extinction. 12223,2011,4,5,Random walk lengths of about 30 years in global climate,We have applied the relation for the mean of the expected values of the maximum excursion in a bounded random walk to estimate the random walk length from time series of eight independent global mean quantities (temperature maximum| summer lag| temperature minimum and winter lag in land and over the ocean) derived from the NOAA-CIRES twentieth century reanalysis (V2) for 1871-2008 and the ECHAM5 IPCC AR4 twentieth century run for 1860-2100| and also the Millenium 3100 yr control run mil01| which was segmented into records of specified period. The results for NOAA-CIRES| ECHAM5| and mil01 (mean of thirty 100 yr segments) are very similar and indicate a random walk length on land of 24 yr and over the ocean of 20 yr. Using three 1000 yr segments from mil01| the random walk lengths increased to 37 yr on land and 33 yr over the ocean. This result indicates that the shorter records may not totally capture the random variability of climate relevant on the time scale of civilizations| for which the random walk length is likely to be about 30 years. For this random walk length| the observed standard deviations of maximum temperature and minimum temperature yield respective expected maximum excursions on land of 1.4 and 2.3 degrees C and over the ocean of 0.5 and 0.7 degrees C| which are substantial fractions of the global warming signal. Citation: Bye| J.| K. Fraedrich| E. Kirk| S. Schubert| and X. Zhu (2011)| Random walk lengths of about 30 years in global climate| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L05806| doi: 10.1029/2010GL046333. 12419,2011,3,4,Ranking Objects Using Fuzzy Orders| with an Application to Refrigerants,Ranking objects means pairwise comparing their features| mostly using certain parameters| for example real-valued functions| the values of which allow to put the objects in a certain order. However| due to the ordinal character of ranking not all slight numerical differences in the values of features should be considered as relevant. The possible appearance of data noise may support the idea to robustify the order relations. For this reason| elements of fuzzy order theory are used in the present paper that allow stepwise to relax the requirements on the influence of numerical differences of feature values. The methods described are applied to the ranking of refrigerants based upon their ozone depletion potential| global warming potential and atmospheric lifetime. It is found that trifluoroiodomethane| dimethyl ether and ammonia are the least environmentally problematic substances for a wide range of relaxation in their environmental properties. Pentafluorodimethyl ether| mooted as replacement of problematic refrigerants| turns out to be a problematic substance for different levels of data relaxation| which raises questions regarding its environmental impact. 11965,2011,2,4,Rapid change in semi-diurnal tides in the North Atlantic since 1980,An anomalously large trend of M(2) and S(2) amplitudes and phases| beginning in the early 1980s| is observed in the North Atlantic. Harmonic analysis of long-term sea-level records from tide-gauge stations along the North American Atlantic coast and European Atlantic coast shows a large decrease in M(2) and S(2) amplitudes and an increase in phase lag. The characteristics of the evolution of M(2) and S(2) tides are similar| but not fully conclusive| which may suggesting different causes. In general| the trends may be due to global warming| which significantly increased in the early 1980s in the North Atlantic region. Several climate-related driving mechanisms for the observed changes in tides are discussed. Citation: Muller| M. (2011)| Rapid change in semi-diurnal tides in the North Atlantic since 1980| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L11602| doi: 10.1029/2011GL047312. 3319,2011,2,4,Rapid Evolution of Coral Proteins Responsible for Interaction with the Environment,Background: Corals worldwide are in decline due to climate change effects (e. g.| rising seawater temperatures)| pollution| and exploitation. The ability of corals to cope with these stressors in the long run depends on the evolvability of the underlying genetic networks and proteins| which remain largely unknown. A genome-wide scan for positively selected genes between related coral species can help to narrow down the search space considerably. Methodology/Principal Findings: We screened a set of 2|604 putative orthologs from EST-based sequence datasets of the coral species Acropora millepora and Acropora palmata to determine the fraction and identity of proteins that may experience adaptive evolution. 7% of the orthologs show elevated rates of evolution. Taxonomically-restricted (i.e. lineage-specific) genes show a positive selection signature more frequently than genes that are found across many animal phyla. The class of proteins that displayed elevated evolutionary rates was significantly enriched for proteins involved in immunity and defense| reproduction| and sensory perception. We also found elevated rates of evolution in several other functional groups such as management of membrane vesicles| transmembrane transport of ions and organic molecules| cell adhesion| and oxidative stress response. Proteins in these processes might be related to the endosymbiotic relationship corals maintain with dinoflagellates in the genus Symbiodinium. Conclusion/Relevance: This study provides a birds-eye view of the processes potentially underlying coral adaptation| which will serve as a foundation for future work to elucidate the rates| patterns| and mechanisms of corals' evolutionary response to global climate change. 12037,2011,2,4,Rapid northwards expansion of a forest insect pest attributed to spring phenology matching with sub-Arctic birch,Species range displacements owing to shifts in temporal associations between trophic levels are expected consequences of climate warming. Climate-induced range expansions have been shown for two irruptive forest defoliators| the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata| causing more extensive forest damage in sub-Arctic Fennoscandia. Here| we document a rapid northwards expansion of a novel irruptive geometrid| Agriopis aurantiaria| into the same region| with the aim of providing insights into mechanisms underlying the recent geometrid range expansions and subsequent forest damage. Based on regional scale data on occurrences and a quantitative monitoring of population densities along the invasion front| we show that| since the first records of larval specimens in the region in 1997-1998| the species has spread northwards to approximately 70 degrees N| and caused severe defoliation locally during 2004-2006. Through targeted studies of larval phenology of A. aurantiaria and O. brumata| as well as spring phenology of birch| along meso-scale climatic gradients| we show that A. aurantiaria displays a similar dynamics and development as O. brumata| albeit with a consistent phenological lag of 0.75-1 instar. Experiments of the temperature requirements for egg hatching and for budburst in birch showed that this phenological lag is caused by delayed egg hatching in A. aurantiaria relative to O. brumata. A. aurantiaria had a higher development threshold (LDT(A.a.)=4.71 degrees C| LDT(O.b.)=1.41 degrees C)| and hatched later and in less synchrony with budburst than O. brumata at the lower end of the studied temperature range. We can conclude that recent warmer springs have provided phenological match between A. aurantiaria and sub-Arctic birch which may intensify the cumulative impact of geometrid outbreaks on this forest ecosystem. Higher spring temperatures will increase spring phenological synchrony between A. aurantiaria and its host| which suggests that a further expansion of the outbreak range of A. aurantiaria can be expected. 11953,2011,4,4,Rate Constants for the Reactions between OH and Perfluorinated Alkenes,The rate constants for the reactions of OH radicals with fully fluorinated alkenes containing different numbers of -CF(3) groups next to olefinic carbon| CF(2)=CF(2)| CF(2)=CFCF(3)| CF(3)CF=CFCF(3)| and (CF(3))(2)C=CFC(2)F(5)| were measured between 230 and 480 K using the flash photolysis resonance fluorescence technique to give the following expressions: K(c2F4)(250-480 K) = 1.32 x 10(-12) x (T/298 K)(0.9) x exp((+600 K/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| k(c3F6)(230-2 480 K) = 9.75 x10(-14) x (T/298 K)(1.94) x exp(+922 KIT) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-)1| k(trans C4F8) (230-370 K) = 7.50 x 10(-14) x (T/298 K)(1.68) exp(+612 K/T) cm(3) molecule-1 s-1| k(cis-C4F8)(230-370 K) = 2.99 x 10(-14) x (T/298 K)(2.61) x exp(+760 KIT) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)| and k(C6F12)(250-480 = 2.17 x 10(-15) x (T/298 K)(3.90) x exp( 1044K/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The kinetics of the OH reaction in an industrial sample of octofluoro-2-propene (a mixture of the cis- and trans-isomers of CF3CF=CFCF3) was studied to determine the "effective" reaction rate constant for the typically industrial mixture: k(< C4F8 >)(230-480 = 7.89 x 10(-14) x (T/298K)(1.71) x exp(+557 K/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). On the basis of these results| the atmospheric lifetimes were estimated to be 1.2| 5.3| 21| 34| and 182 days for CF(2)=CF(2)| CF(3)CF=CF(2)| trans-CF(3)CF=CFCF(3)| cis-CF(3)CF=CFCF(3)| and (CF(3))(2)C=CFC(2)F(5) respectively. The general pattern of halolalkene reactivity toward OH is discussed. 11646,2011,3,4,Reaction Behavior of Ferro Coke and Its Evaluation in Blast Furnace,In recent years| the reduction of CO(2) emissions and the stable supply of raw materials arc two major issues for the steel industry. Low reducing agent operation in the blast furnace is required to reduce CO(2) emissions in ironmaking. As a mean of realizing low reducing agent operation with using low-grade raw materials| ferro coke characterized by high coke reactivity is considered to be useful. Theoretical and experimental studies were carried out to verify the effect of the ferro coke usage on reaction behavior in blast furnace. Investigation of CO(2) reactivity at the simulated blast furnace condition revealed that the initial temperature of CO(2) reaction of ferro coke is lower than the temperature of conventional coke. At the temperature of over 1100 degrees C| the deterioration of ferro coke strength after reaction was depressed because the reaction occurred preferentially at the surface of the ferro coke. The coke and ferro coke strength after reaction was estimated based on the experimental results with the two-dimensional mathematical model of the blast furnace. The average coke strength of ferro coke and conventional coke with charging of ferro coke (100 kg/t) was little less than the coke strength without ferro coke charging. It is predicted that the carbon saving with charging of ferro coke (100 kg/t) is about 6% in comparison to without ferro coke charging. 11644,2011,3,3,Recent advances in capture of carbon dioxide using alkali-metal-based oxides,Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is a major greenhouse gas and makes a significant contribution to global warming and climate change. Thus CO(2) capture and storage (CCS) have attracted worldwide interest from both fundamental and practical research communities. Alkali-metal-based oxides such as alkali-metal oxides| binary oxides| and hydrotalcite-like compounds are promising adsorbents for CO(2) capture because of their relatively high adsorption capacity| low cost| and wide availability. They can also be applied to the adsorption-enhanced reactions involving CO(2). The microstructures (e.g.| surface area| porosity| particle size| and dispersion) of these oxides determine the CO(2) adsorption capacity and multicycle stability. This perspective critically assesses and gives an overview of recent developments in the synthesized method| adsorption mechanism| operational conditions| stability| and regenerability of a variety of oxides. Both pros and cons of these oxides are also discussed. Insights are provided into several effective procedures regarding microstructural control of alkali-metal-based oxides| including preparation optimization| modification| stream hydration| etc. 12805,2011,3,3,Recent development of energy supply and demand in China| and energy sector prospects through 2030,Facing multiple pressures| including its commitment to energy efficiency improvement| the current worldwide recession| and global warming concerns| China is making great efforts to maintain its continuous economic growth and reduce pollutant emissions. Many policies to encourage investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy have been issued. This article provides insights into the latest development of energy production| energy consumption and energy strategic planning and policies in China| and also describes the analysis| carried out by the authors as part of the Asian Energy Security project using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) modeling tool| of the impacts of implementing new and expected energy and environmental policies. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12512,2011,2,2,Recent impacts of anthropogenic climate change on a higher marine predator in western Britain,Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems are now widely acknowledged. In the NE Atlantic| abundant evidence from the partly enclosed waters of the North Sea indicates that recent climate-induced changes in primary and secondary productivity have been propagated up the food chain| with marked consequences for higher vertebrate predators such as seabirds. In contrast| however| there is much less indication of such impacts on higher predators in the more open Atlantic waters around the west coast of the British Isles. Through an annual comparison of chick growth and adult food provisioning behaviour of Manx shearwaters in SW Wales| we found that birds bred later and chicks attained lower peak and fledging masses in 2007 and 2008 than in any previous recorded year dating back to 1965. These changes were accompanied by a reduction in parental attendance at the colony| which was probably the result of parents switching to a dual foraging strategy in 2007 and 2008. These events were linked to higher sea surface temperature in the preceding winter and to a reduction in prey quality| as indicated by the mean body mass of 2 yr old herring. These are the first such findings for the west coast of Britain and indicate that within the NE Atlantic region| adverse impacts of climate change on higher marine predators are no longer restricted to the vicinity of the North Sea. 11686,2011,3,3,Recent renewable energy developments| studies| incentives in Turkey,Energy is indispensable for human life. Energy is not only a measurement for economical and social improvement but also a fundamental human necessity. Every country in the planet are trying to find a way to solve energy problems such as depending on energy importation| all kind of environmental pollution| global warming| increasing cost of energy| and energy inefficiency. Industrial and technologic developments are continuing rapidly| the need of energy consuming is increasing accordingly| and also concerning the population increase; the governments are given vast amount of incentives for renewable energy for the solutions to these kinds of problems and for the aims to be realized| which are saving money| saving energy and therefore saving the world. In this study| recent renewable energy developments| the evaluation of renewable energy| the importance of renewable energy use| the incentives and subsidies| the renewable energy policies in Turkey are investigated. In this regard some barriers and recommendations are submitted.
12097,2011,2,4,Recent spatial and temporal changes in body size of terrestrial vertebrates: probable causes and pitfalls,Geographical and temporal variations in body size are common phenomena among organisms and may evolve within a few years. We argue that body size acts much like a barometer| fluctuating in parallel with changes in the relevant key predictor(s)| and that geographical and temporal changes in body size are actually manifestations of the same drivers. Frequently| the principal predictors of body size are food availability during the period of growth and ambient temperature| which often affects food availability. Food availability depends on net primary productivity that| in turn| is determined by climate and weather (mainly temperature and precipitation)| and these depend mainly on solar radiation and other solar activities. When the above predictors are related to latitude the changes have often been interpreted as conforming to Bergmann's rule| but in many cases such interpretations should be viewed with caution due to the interrelationships among various environmental predictors. Recent temporal changes in body size have often been related to global warming. However| in many cases the above key predictors are not related to either latitude and/or year| and it is the task of the researcher to determine which particular environmental predictor is the one that determines food availability and| in turn| body size. The chance of discerning a significant change in body size depends to a large extent on sample size (specimens/year). The most recent changes in body size are probably phenotypic| but there are some cases in which they are partly genetic. 11628,2011,2,4,Recent trends and variations in surface meteorological parameters over Indian Antarctic station Maitri,Utilizing surface meteorological data of temperature| pressure and wind of recent two decades| 1991-2010 over Indian Antarctic research station Maitri the trends and variabilities in surface meteorological parameters have been discussed. The trend in mean air temperature at Maitri has been -0.4/decade during past two decades showing no impact of global warming on Maitri surface temperature. There is no trend in surface pressure at Maitri during last two decades. Mean surface wind speed has shown slight increasing trend during the decade 1991-2000 whereas it has shown slight decreasing trend during the decade 2001-2010. However| there are large interannual variations in surface parameters and the linear trends seem to be the result of such variations. During Jan-March of two contrasting monsoon years 2009 and 2010 interesting anomalies in surface pressure at Maitri have been observed. Surface pressure was anomalously lower at Matri in Jan-March of drought year 2009 whereas positive pressure anomalies prevailed during the same period of excess monsoon year 2010. Negative temperature anomalies during January-March over Maitri preceded drought monsoon 2009 and positive anomalies prevailed during the same period before good monsoon 2010. 3450,2011,2,4,Recent trends in airborne pollen for tree species in Galicia| NW Spain,The global climate change recorded over recent years may prompt changes in phenological events. The present study sought to analyse the varying impact of changes in weather conditions at different times of the year on woody-plant flowering| by analysing recent trends in airborne count for 3 pollen types abundant in Galicia belonging to the Fagales order: Alnus| which flowers in early winter; Betula| in early spring; and Castanea| in early summer. Pollen sampling was performed using Hirst-type volumetric traps in Ourense| Santiago| Vigo and Lugo; data were subjected to regression models| applied using the SPSS 17.0 statistical software package. The atmospheric pollen season started later in Lugo; the lower winter minimum temperatures in Lugo compared to the other 3 cities over the study period would explain the higher chilling accumulation recorded. The trend towards increasing temperatures was more marked in the south of Galicia (Vigo and Ourense) than in more northern cities. Mainly| maximum temperatures in September or October displayed an increasing trend at Ourense| Vigo and Lugo| while summer temperatures showed significant increases in Ourense. The temperature increase detected| especially during spring and summer| could account for the slight trend towards an earlier pollen season onset in all 4 cities| and for the advance of the Castanea pollen-season end date observed in Ourense. 12060,2011,2,4,Recent trends of the tropical hydrological cycle inferred from Global Precipitation Climatology Project and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data,Scores of modeling studies have shown that increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere impact the global hydrologic cycle; however| disagreements on regional scales are large| and thus the simulated trends of such impacts| even for regions as large as the tropics| remain uncertain. The present investigation attempts to examine such trends in the observations using satellite data products comprising Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud and radiation. Specifically| evolving trends of the tropical hydrological cycle over the last 20-30 years were identified and analyzed. The results show (1) intensification of tropical precipitation in the rising regions of the Walker and Hadley circulations and weakening over the sinking regions of the associated overturning circulation; (2) poleward shift of the subtropical dry zones (up to 2 degrees decade(-1) in June-July-August (JJA) in the Northern Hemisphere and 0.3-0.7 degrees decade(-1) in June-July-August and September-October-November in the Southern Hemisphere) consistent with an overall broadening of the Hadley circulation; and (3) significant poleward migration (0.9-1.7 degrees decade(-1)) of cloud boundaries of Hadley cell and plausible narrowing of the high cloudiness in the Intertropical Convergence Zone region in some seasons. These results support findings of some of the previous studies that showed strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle and expansion of the Hadley cell that are potentially related to the recent global warming trends. 12228,2011,2,3,Recent warming by latitude associated with increased length of ragweed pollen season in central North America,A fundamental aspect of climate change is the potential shifts in flowering phenology and pollen initiation associated with milder winters and warmer seasonal air temperature. Earlier floral anthesis has been suggested| in turn| to have a role in human disease by increasing time of exposure to pollen that causes allergic rhinitis and related asthma. However| earlier floral initiation does not necessarily alter the temporal duration of the pollen season| and| to date| no consistent continental trend in pollen season length has been demonstrated. Here we report that duration of the ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) pollen season has been increasing in recent decades as a function of latitude in North America. Latitudinal effects on increasing season length were associated primarily with a delay in first frost of the fall season and lengthening of the frost free period. Overall| these data indicate a significant increase in the length of the ragweed pollen season by as much as 13-27 d at latitudes above similar to 44 degrees N since 1995. This is consistent with recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections regarding enhanced warming as a function of latitude. If similar warming trends accompany long-term climate change| greater exposure times to seasonal allergens may occur with subsequent effects on public health. 11766,2011,2,4,Reconstruction of a 1|910-y-long locust series reveals consistent associations with climate fluctuations in China,It is becoming increasingly clear that global warming is taking place; however| its long-term effects on biological populations are largely unknown due to lack of long-term data. Here| we reconstructed a 1|910-y-long time series of outbreaks of Oriental migratory locusts (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China| on the basis of information extracted from >8|000 historical documents. First by analyzing the most recent period with the best data quality using generalized additive models| we found statistically significant associations between the reconstructed locust abundance and indexes of precipitation and temperature at both annual (A.D. 1512-1911) and decadal (A.D. 1000-1900) scales: There were more locusts under dry and cold conditions and when locust abundance was high in the preceding year or decade. Second| by exploring locust-environment correlations using a 200-y moving window| we tested whether these associations also hold further back in time. The locust-precipitation correlation was found to hold at least as far back as to A.D. 500| supporting the robustness of this link as well as the quality of both reconstructions. The locust-temperature correlation was weaker and less consistent| which may reflect this link being indirect and thus more easily moderated by other factors. We anticipate that further analysis of this unique time series now available to the scientific community will continue to provide insights into biological consequences of climate change in the years to come. 11757,2011,2,4,Recovery of photosynthetic capacity in Vaccinium vitis-idaea during mild spells in winter,Recent studies suggest that evergreen plants may maintain their photosynthetic capacity through the winter. Since mild winters are predicted to be more frequent in the future| the metabolic activity of plants is also likely to increase. The aim of the present study was to assess how various environmental factors| such as temperature| photoperiod and preceding frost| affect the recovery of photosynthesis during a mild spell in winter. The recovery of photosynthesis was studied in a series of growth chamber experiments where the overwintering of lingonberry (Vaccinium vitis-idaea) was interrupted by an intermittent warm spell of 1 week during different phases of winter. Rapid activation was observed in all the experiments during the first 3-4 days. No obvious effects of the phase of winter or photoperiod on the recovery of photosynthesis were observed| but a severe freezing treatment prior to the warm spell retarded the recovery significantly. Once recovered| however| lingonberry was able to maintain high rates of photosynthesis even at near-freezing temperatures| which prevail in their natural sub-nivean environment. The apparent quantum yield of photosynthesis remained high through the winter for lingonberry. This may prove advantageous for evergreen dwarf shrubs which overwinter in dim environments under snow. 12516,2011,2,4,Redesigning biodiversity conservation projects for climate change: examples from the field,Few conservation projects consider climate impacts or have a process for developing adaptation strategies. To advance climate adaptation for biodiversity conservation| we tested a step-by-step approach to developing adaptation strategies with 20 projects from diverse geographies. Project teams assessed likely climate impacts using historical climate data| future climate predictions| expert input| and scientific literature. They then developed adaptation strategies that considered ecosystems and species of concern| project goals| climate impacts| and indicators of progress. Project teams identified 176 likely climate impacts and developed adaptation strategies to address 42 of these impacts. The most common impacts were to habitat quantity or quality| and to hydrologic regimes. Nearly half of expected impacts were temperature-mediated. Twelve projects indicated that the project focus| either focal ecosystems and species or project boundaries| need to change as a result of considering climate impacts. More than half of the adaptation strategies were resistance strategies aimed at preserving the status quo. The rest aimed to make ecosystems and species more resilient in the face of expected changes. All projects altered strategies in some way| either by adding new actions| or by adjusting existing actions. Habitat restoration and enactment of policies and regulations were the most frequently prescribed| though every adaptation strategy required a unique combination of actions. While the effectiveness of these adaptation strategies remains to be evaluated| the application of consistent guidance has yielded important early lessons about how| when| and how often conservation projects may need to be modified to adapt to climate change. 3370,2011,2,4,Reduced body mass gain in small passerines during migratory stopover under simulated heat wave conditions,For birds that migrate long distances| maximizing the rate of refueling at stopovers is advantageous| but ambient conditions may adversely influence this vital process. We simulated a 3-day migratory stopover for garden warblers (Sylvia borin) and compared body temperatures (T(b)) and rates of refueling under conditions of a heat wave (T(a)=40 degrees C by day| and 15 degrees C at night) with those under more moderate conditions (T(a)=27 degrees C by day| and 15 degrees C at night). We measured T(b) with implanted thermo-sensitive radio transmitters. Birds had significantly lower rates of body mass gain on the first day of stopover (repeated measures mixed model ANOVA| p=0.002) affecting body mass during the entire stopover (p=0.034) and higher maximum T(b) during the day when exposed to high T(a) than when exposed to moderate T(a) (p=0.002). In addition| the birds exposed to high T(a) by day had significantly lower minimum T(b) at night than those exposed to moderate daytime T(a) (p=0.048)| even though T(a) at night was the same for both groups. We interpret this lower nighttime T(b) to be a means of saving energy to compensate for elevated daytime thermoregulatory requirements| while higher T(b) by day may reduce protein turnover. All effects on T(b) were significantly more pronounced during the first day of stopover than on days two and three| which may be linked to the rate of renewal of digestive function during stopover. Our results suggest that environmental factors| such as high T(a)| constrain migratory body mass gain. Extreme high T(a) and heat waves are predicted to increase due to global climate change| and thus are likely to pose increasing constraints on regaining body mass during stopover and therefore migratory performance in migratory birds. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 12768,2011,3,4,Reducing the greenhouse gas footprint of shale gas,Shale gas is viewed by many as a global energy game-changer. However| serious concerns exist that shale gas generates more greenhouse gas emissions than does coal. In this work the related published data are reviewed and a reassessment is made. It is shown that the greenhouse gas effect of shale gas is less than that of coal over long term if the higher power generation efficiency of shale gas is taken into account. In short term| the greenhouse gas effect of shale gas can be lowered to the level of that of coal if methane emissions are kept low using existing technologies. Further reducing the greenhouse gas effect of shale gas by storing CO(2) in depleted shale gas reservoirs is also discussed| with the conclusion that more CO(2) than the equivalent CO(2) emitted by the extracted shale gas could be stored in the reservoirs at significantly reduced cost. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11967,2011,3,3,Reduction of green house gases by dry reforming: Effect of support,Reforming of methane with carbon dioxide has recently received an increasing interest since it has significant environmental implications in view of the fact that both methane and carbon dioxide are greenhouse gases which have significant contribution on the global warming problem. A series of Ni loading 5| 8 and 11% catalysts supported on gamma-Al(2)O(3) and MgO were prepared by the incipient wetness impregnation method Their catalytic properties for the dry reforming of methane were studied experimentally. The fresh and spent catalysts and deposited carbon were characterized by means of EDX| SEM| BET and TGA. The combined characterization and catalyst performance tests results reveal that Ni//gamma-Al(2)O(3) provide better catalytic activity than Ni/MgO. But lower stability is due to higher catalyst deactivation rate. Using the 5 wt % Ni/MgO catalyst| at 500 degrees C reaction temperature| the conversions of CH(4) and CO(2) were 11.2 and 18.4% respectively. While at 800 degrees C| the conversions of CH(4) and CO(2) were 81.7 and 91.8% respectively. On the other hand| when 5 wt %Ni /gamma-Al(2)O(3) catalyst was used| at 500 degrees C reaction temperature| the conversions of CH(4) and CO(2) were 15.8 and 24.3% respectively. While at 800 degrees C| the conversions of CH(4) and CO(2) were 91.1 and 92.5% respectively. Ni//gamma-Al(2)O(3) catalyst is found in sensitive to the amounts of the Ni loading. Alternatively| for all temperatures the Ni/MgO catalyst is improved by the increasing the amounts of Ni loading. Both supports demonstrated the formation of filamentous coke on the surface of the catalyst and formed carbon nanofibers seem almost identical. 11701,2011,3,3,Reduction of SnO(2) with Hydrogen,This study deals with the reduction of tin oxide by hydrogen in the temperature range of 773 similar to 1023 K and the hydrogen partial pressure of 30.4 similar to 101.3 kPa. It aims to investigate the kinetics of the reaction between tin oxide and hydrogen. The hydrogen reduction of tin oxide is to be related with the efforts to extract tin metal with decreasing the emission of carbon dioxide which causes global warming. The experiments were carried out under isothermal condition in hydrogen atmosphere using TGA equipment. The reduction rate of tin oxide to tin metal by hydrogen was found to be relatively fast under the whole conditions until the reduction ratio of SnO(2) approaches to about 0.95. As an example| at 1023 K under a hydrogen partial pressure of 101.3 kPa| almost 100% of tin oxide was reduced to tin metal in 10 min. The nucleation and growth model yielded a satisfactory fit to these experimental data. The reaction was first order with respect to hydrogen partial pressure and had an activation energy of 62.5 kJ/mol (15.0 kcal/mol). [doi:10.2320/matertrans.M2011118] 3428,2011,2,4,Refinement of the fundamental niche of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) seedlings in Louisiana: Applications for restoration,Black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) occurs at the northern boundary of its North American range in the coastal salt marshes and barrier islands of Louisiana. This species provides important habitat and sustainability to Louisiana's coastal salt marshes via its woody structure and extensive root system. Refinement of the physiological tolerances of A. germinans seedlings to salinity| sand burial and hydrologic regime provides valuable insight into the fundamental niche of A. germinans and thereby the potential for increased restoration success in coastal and back-barrier salt marshes. We subjected two age classes of A. germinans seedlings used in restoration (young seedlings of 6 or 12 months of age| and older seedlings of either 18 or 24 months of age) to abiotic stressors frequently encountered at coastal restoration sites: (1) elevated salinity levels| from 0 to 96 ppt| (2) sediment burial| from 0 to +20 cm| and (3) varying water levels| ranging from 0 cm to -60 cm. A. germinans seedlings displayed a non-linear response to each environmental factor| with greatest biomass occurring between low and moderate levels of stress or disturbance (i.e.| between 24 and 48 ppt salinity| 0 to +10 cm burial| and -15 to -30 cm water level). The two age classes displayed similar physiological tolerances; however| older seedlings may confer an advantage due to greater total biomass and reserves| most notably in response to burial. We suggest that this refinement of the fundamental niche be utilized as a guideline for improved restoration success in micro-tidal environments within black mangrove's range. 12186,2011,2,4,Regional and local climatic effects on the Dead-Sea evaporation,The natural evaporation in the Dead-Sea is a very important meteorological parameter to the local industries at Sdom. It was found that the pan evaporation in Sdom has recently increased by 20-25%. In this paper we explore the reasons for this increase. It is found that both large-scale and local climatic changes have contributed to the evaporation increase in the Dead Sea Valley. The large-scale (global) change potentially associated with the global warming| resulted in changes of the frequencies of some synoptic systems in the region. The local change is a result of the recent Dead-Sea drying| which reduced the local Dead-Sea breeze while intensifying the Mediterranean-Sea breeze penetrating the Dead Sea Valley. It is suggested that while the local effect was the dominant climatic change factor in the Dead-Sea Valley in the 1970-1990| the global effect becomes the dominant one in the more recent evaporation increase in the Dead-Sea. 11992,2011,2,4,Regional and yearly variations of hail frequency and intensity in France,In addition to the ground seeding hail prevention project| the Association Nationale d'Etude et de Lutte contre les Fleaux Atmospheriques (ANELFA) operates hailpad networks in four of the most hailed regions of France: Atlantic| Pyrenean| Central and Mediterranean. During the past 22 years of continuous measurements| more than five thousand point hailfalls have been recorded at 922 stations (mean annual value) installed in a 66|500 km(2) area. At the scale of a region and of a hail season| hail is found to be the product of two nearly independent parameters| the frequency and the mean intensity of hailfalls. The frequency is highest in the Pyrenean region| while the intensity is highest both in the Pyrenean and Central regions. This can be explained| for the frequency| by the proximity of Spain| and| for the intensity| by the mean hailstone size distributions which are different in the continental and maritime regions. The time variations and trends of hail during the 1989-2009 period are computed from the data at 457 stations which never changed during this period. The annual frequency is subject to cyclic variations| while the yearly mean intensity is affected by irregular severe hail events. The frequency did not change significantly during the period| while the intensity increased by 70%. The mean monthly distribution of hail is bimodal| with two maximums in May and July| suggesting that two types of meteorological conditions are at the origin of hailstorms. April and May are solely responsible for the mean hail increase observed during the period. A computation of the year-to-year correlation between hail intensity and mean minimum surface temperature for each month suggests that the large hail increase in April and May is at least partially due to the observed concomitant increase in temperature| and then may be a consequence of global warning. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3283,2011,2,4,Regional differences in climate factors controlling chum and pink salmon abundance,Chum and pink salmon abundances vary on a decadal time-scale. We examined the relationship between large-scale climate indices (Os)| regional climate factors (RFs)| and rates of change in regional catches (RCs) of chum and pink salmon in five regions of the North Pacific. Correlation coefficients of RCs with RFs were larger than those of RCs with CIs| although the correlation coefficient of particular variables varied among regions. Climate affected salmon stocks as indicated by significant relationships with various terrestrial and ocean climate factors on a regional scale. These results suggest that no single CI or RF controls salmon abundance in all regions; however| global climate changes could affect regional climate directly and regional salmon abundance indirectly. A warming trend in the North Pacific might affect the long-term change in salmon abundance. The mechanisms controlling regional salmon abundance must be understood better to forecast successfully future conditions for Pacific salmon stocks| because the response of salmon stocks to global climate change varies among regions. 12383,2011,2,2,Regional distribution of sea level changes resulting from enhanced greenhouse warming in the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 3.2,Using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 3.2 (MIROC 3.2)| we investigated the physical nature of regional sea level changes due to enhanced greenhouse warming. The regional sea level changes were not spatially uniform| and their patterns were principally determined by the baroclinic component (density change) due to surface fluxes of heat| freshwater| and wind stress. Sea level changes in the barotropic circulation were mainly confined to the Southern Ocean. We decomposed the baroclinic response into vertical modes of ocean climatological stratification| considering the vertical structure of the baroclinic pressure change. The first baroclinic mode was responsible for about 78% of the variance in the baroclinic response| suggesting that the regional distribution of sea level change under global warming is mainly determined by displacement of the main pycnocline. The second and third modes were responsible for about 12% and 4% of the variance| respectively| some of which was related to subduction of the global warming signal. The decomposition of the baroclinic response mentioned above is suggestive of sea level changes due to global warming as results of region-by-region physical processes. Citation: Suzuki| T.| and M. Ishii (2011)| Regional distribution of sea level changes resulting from enhanced greenhouse warming in the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 3.2| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L02601| doi:10.1029/2010GL045693. 12085,2011,2,2,Regional Impacts of Climate Change and Atmospheric CO(2) on Future Ocean Carbon Uptake: A Multimodel Linear Feedback Analysis,The increase in atmospheric CO(2) over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air sea CO(2) uptake| which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO(2) itself and climate change. Here| the future oceanic CO(2) uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO(2) emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010-2100) oceanic CO(2) uptake into a CO(2)-induced component| due to rising atmospheric CO(2) concentrations| and a climate-induced component| due to global warming. The models capture the observation-based magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO(2) uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models| with reduced CO(2) uptake in the subpolar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions| owing to decreased CO(2) solubility; and reduced CO(2) uptake in the midlatitudes| owing to decreased CO(2) solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extratropics| to large freshwater fluxes in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean| and to small changes in the CO(2) solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO(2) uptake regions| the climate-induced component offsets the CO(2)-induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extratropics and 25% in the southern extratropics and equatorial regions. Consequently| the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO(2) uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers| such as oxygen. 11793,2011,3,3,Regional landfills methane emission inventory in Malaysia,The decomposition of municipal solid waste (MSW) in landfills under anaerobic conditions produces landfill gas (LFG) containing approximately 50-60% methane (CH(4)) and 30-40% carbon dioxide (CO(2)) by volume. CH(4) has a global warming potential 21 times greater than CO2; thus| it poses a serious environmental problem. As landfills are the main method for waste disposal in Malaysia| the major aim of this study was to estimate the total CH(4) emissions from landfills in all Malaysian regions and states for the year 2009 using the IPCC| 1996 first-order decay (FOD) model focusing on clean development mechanism (CDM) project applications to initiate emission reductions. Furthermore| the authors attempted to assess| in quantitative terms| the amount of CH(4) that would be emitted from landfills in the period from 1981-2024 using the IPCC 2006 FOD model. The total CH(4) emission using the IPCC 1996 model was estimated to be 318.8 Gg in 2009. The Northern region had the highest CH(4) emission inventory| with 128.8 Gg| whereas the Borneo region had the lowest| with 24.2 Gg. It was estimated that Pulau Penang state produced the highest CH(4) emission| 77.6 Gg| followed by the remaining states with emission values ranging from 38.5 to 1.5 Gg. Based on the IPCC 1996 FOD model| the total Malaysian CH(4) emission was forecast to be 397.7 Gg by 2020. The IPCC 2006 FOD model estimated a 201 Gg CH(4) emission in 2009| and estimates ranged from 98 Gg in 1981 to 263 Gg in 2024. 12696,2011,2,4,Regional Modeling of Climate Change Impact on Peninsular Malaysia Water Resources,The future projections of climate change by means of global climate models of the Earth provide fundamental coarse-grid-resolution hydroclimate data for studies of the effect of climate change on water resources. This paper reports on a study that was performed during 2001-2006| in which the climate change simulations of the coupled global climate model of the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis were downscaled by a regional hydroclimate model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) to the scale of the subregions and watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia (PM)| to assess the effect of future climate change on its water resources. On the basis of the simulations of hydroclimatic conditions during the historical period of 1984-1993 and future periods of 2025-2034 and 2041-2050| this report concludes that the overall mean monthly streamflow is approximately the same during both the future period| and the historical period for most of the watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia| except Kelantan and Pahang. In those two watersheds| a significant increase occurs in the overall mean monthly streamflow during the future period. In the future| high flow conditions will be magnified in the Kelantan| Terengganu| Pahang| and Perak River watersheds during the wet months| whereas low monthly flows will be significantly lower in the Selangor and Klang watersheds during the dry months. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000305. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers. 12393,2011,4,3,Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (>= 4 degrees C) global warming,Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes| but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios| assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as 'high-end' ( those projecting 4 degrees C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change| normalized against the global rate of warming| are generally similar in high-end and 'non-high-end' simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes| where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models| but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average| with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer| and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures| including Mediterranean fringe regions| indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas. 12378,2011,2,4,Regulation of Apoptotic Mediators Reveals Dynamic Responses to Thermal Stress in the Reef Building Coral Acropora millepora,Background: Mass coral bleaching is increasing in scale and frequency across the world's coral reefs and is being driven primarily by increased levels of thermal stress arising from global warming. In order to understand the impacts of projected climate change upon corals reefs| it is important to elucidate the underlying cellular mechanisms that operate during coral bleaching and subsequent mortality. In this respect| increased apoptotic cell death activity is an important cellular process that is associated with the breakdown of the mutualistic symbiosis between the cnidarian host and their dinoflagellate symbionts. Methodology/Principal Findings: The present study reports the impacts of different stressors (colchicine and heat stress) on three phases of apoptosis: (i) the potential initiation by differential expression of Bcl-2 members| (ii) the execution of apoptotic events by activation of caspase 3-like proteases and (iii) and finally| the cell disposal indicated by DNA fragmentation in the reef building coral Acropora millepora. In corals incubated with colchicine| an increase in caspase 3-like activity and DNA fragmentation was associated with a relative down-regulation of Bcl-2| suggesting that the initiation of apoptosis may be mediated by the suppression of an anti-apoptotic mechanism. In contrast| in the early steps of heat stress| the induction of caspase-dependent apoptosis was related to a relative up-regulation of Bcl-2 consecutively followed by a delayed decrease in apoptosis activity. Conclusions/Significance: In the light of these results| we propose a model of heat stress in coral hosts whereby increasing temperatures engage activation of caspase 3-dependent apoptosis in cells designated for termination| but also the onset of a delayed protective response involving overexpression of Bcl-2 in surviving cells. This mitigating response to thermal stress could conceivably be an important regulatory mechanism for cell survival in corals exposed to sudden environmental changes. 11860,2011,3,3,Regulatory framework for geological storage of CO(2) in Brazil - Analyses and proposal,The lack of specific regulation for new technologies such as Carbon Dioxide Geological Storage (CGS) represents an obstacle in the fight against global warming and its consequences. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and a reduction in its concentration in the atmosphere through geological storage has been highlighted as an important initiative. As this is a little researched technology there is a lack of specific regulation to accompany its large scale usage. However| some developed countries have already structured their CGS regulatory framework. According to international studies one basic aspect in building a CGS regulatory structure lies in its correlation with natural gas and oil regulation. This article presents a regulatory framework Brazilian CGS proposal and suggests the creation of a new law on the subject and the development of its main regulatory mechanisms. The methodology used in this article is based on a review of literature and comparative analysis. A survey of the existing Brazilian legal framework on oil and gas was made. Focusing on the critical points of a Brazilian regulatory framework for CGS proposal this article identifies several technical| legal and structural aspects that must be present in the regulation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12565,2011,3,2,Relationship between construction characteristics and carbon emissions from urban household operational energy usage,Carbon emitted from urban metabolism constitutes a substantial proportion of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission which is at least partially responsible for the recent global warming Part of the urban carbon emission comes from residential energy consumption Given the ongoing rapid urbanization and strict emission-reduction requirement understanding the urban home energy usage carbon emission (UHEUCE) is of great importance to optimize the sustainability of social and economic developments in China For this reason a survey has been conducted to exam the condition of home energy usage in Xiamen Island SE China This study was based on 340 valid responses and a general linear model for univariate method The analysis showed (1) among the residential building characteristics window thermal insulation has the greatest effect on UHEUCE (2) Construction age and wall thermal insulation could also influence UHEUCE in areas where summer is hot and winter is warm The better heat prohibiting effect of external wall and window as well as the newer construction the more UHEUCE can be generated The survey provided helpful first-hand data for design and planning on urban energy saving emission reduction and for relevant scientific researches (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved 12490,2011,2,4,Relative drought tolerance of various desert saltgrass (Distichlis spicata) genotypes,Desertification of arable lands due to urbanization| global warming| and low rainfall mandates water conservation and using low quality waters for irrigation. Using low quality irrigation water imposes more stress on plants which are already under stress in these regions. Thus| there is an urgent need for finding drought tolerant plants to survive under water deficit conditions. The objectives of this study were to find the most drought tolerant saltgrass genotypes for use in arid regions| where limited water supplies coupled with saline soils result in drought/salinity stresses| for use in urban landscapes. Various saltgrass genotypes were studied to evaluate their growth responses under progressive drought stress. Drought stress was imposed via a competitive dry down technique. Drought tolerance was ascertained by relative shoot dry weight and green leaf area. Though all the grasses showed a high level of drought tolerance| there was a wide range of variations observed in their stress tolerance levels. Overall| the results (clipping dry weights and the percent of the visual green cover) showed that the A138 and A137 (Arizona accessions) were the most drought tolerant accessions and the C10 and C66 (Colorado accessions) were the least tolerant ones. In regards to drought tolerance| the rest of the grass accessions were between these two groups. Most of the saltgrass accessions were more tolerant to drought stress than the bermudagrass. Bermudagrass reached full dormancy and/or necrosis stage before most of the saltgrass accessions. 3265,2011,2,4,Relative effects of environment and direct species interactions on the population growth rate of an exotic ascidian,The success of exotic species can be influenced by both the abiotic environment and species interactions. Many studies have demonstrated significant effects of either type of factor on aspects of exotic success| but few have considered their relative effects on population growth rate| a more holistic measure of success. To quantify the relative effects of environment and direct competition on an exotic ascidian| Botrylloides violaceus| I manipulated direct contact interactions at four sites with different abiotic environments and tracked individual colonies over 3 years. I tested site and contact treatment effects on survival| growth and fecundity| and then conducted a life table response experiment on a periodic| size-structured population matrix model to test their effects on population growth rate. Both site and contact interaction were important to explaining variation in survival and growth. Contact interactions decreased the survival and growth of larger colonies but unexpectedly increased the survival of small colonies at some sites| which led to relatively weaker and spatially variable effects on overall population growth rates. Site effects on population growth rates were an order of magnitude larger than contact effects| and site variation in winter vital rates made the largest contributions to changes in population growth rate. The results of this study suggest that the abiotic environment plays a larger role in the success of B. violaceus. Thus| environmental variables| such as temperature and salinity| could be used to predict this exotic species' success under different environmental scenarios| including global climate change. 12205,2011,2,3,Reliability of current Spanish irrigation designs in a changed climate: a case study,A very serious effort to modernize irrigation systems is being made in Spain| to reduce water and energy losses in an environmentally sustainable way. This is expensive and it is important that the new irrigation systems work properly over a long period. The systems have been designed taking into account historical evapotranspiration (ET) averages during the months of maximum demand| as well as the crop-specific ET values (Kc coefficients) of typical crops. However| the increase in ET rates due to global warming could mean that the capacity of these new and expensive irrigation systems to fulfil the crop water requirements may be exceeded in the near future. However| the expected increase in CO| concentration could diminish crop transpiration rates for similar water demands from the atmosphere| thereby reducing irrigation requirements. A methodology was developed in order to estimate crop water requirements under climate change conditions. The reliability of a new irrigation system designed in Valladolid| Northern Spain was tested. The regionalized climate change scenarios for Valladolid| provided by the National Institute of Meteorology| were used for the periods 2011-40| 2041-70 and 2071-2100 and the A2 and B2 emission scenarios were considered using the ECHAM and coupled general circulation model (CGCM) global circulation models. A historical series of daily meteorological data for Valladolid was used to generate statistical ET distributions through the LARS-WG generator. Simulations considered each of the above periods| global circulation models (GCM) and emission scenarios. Furthermore| the Kc of the typical irrigated crops of the zone (maize| potato and sugar beet) were reduced for each period| GCM and emission scenario according to the relationships between CO(2) concentrations and transpiration obtained by Kruijt et al. (2008). The results indicated that| on average| historical ET rates provide a sufficiently robust indicator to enable estimations of the crop ET in the future| particularly considering the CO(2) effect in reducing crop transpiration. However| ET variability is significantly increased after 2040| especially for the A2 emission scenario. The results show that ET variability rather than global increase is the most serious risk that current irrigation systems must face in the near future in Northern Spain| as consequence of climate change. Such variability should be included in irrigation designs. 12389,2011,4,3,Reliability of flipper-banded penguins as indicators of climate change,In 2007| the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted an urgent need to assess the responses of marine ecosystems to climate change(1). Because they lie in a high-latitude region| the Southern Ocean ecosystems are expected to be strongly affected by global warming. Using top predators of this highly productive ocean(2) (such as penguins) as integrative indicators may help us assess the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems(3|4). Yet most available information on penguin population dynamics is based on the controversial use of flipper banding. Although some reports have found the effects of flipper bands to be deleterious(5-8)| some short-term (one-year) studies have concluded otherwise(9-11)| resulting in the continuation of extensive banding schemes and the use of data sets thus collected to predict climate impact on natural populations(12|13). Here we show that banding of free-ranging king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) impairs both survival and reproduction| ultimately affecting population growth rate. Over the course of a 10-year longitudinal study| banded birds produced 39% fewer chicks and had a survival rate 16% lower than non-banded birds| demonstrating a massive long-term impact of banding and thus refuting the assumption that birds will ultimately adapt to being banded(6|12). Indeed| banded birds still arrived later for breeding at the study site and had longer foraging trips even after 10 years. One of our major findings is that responses of flipper-banded penguins to climate variability (that is| changes in sea surface temperature and in the Southern Oscillation index) differ from those of non-banded birds. We show that only long-term investigations may allow an evaluation of the impact of flipper bands and that every major life-history trait can be affected| calling into question the banding schemes still going on. In addition| our understanding of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems based on flipper-band data should be reconsidered. 11825,2011,3,3,Removal of C(3)F(8) Via the Combination of Non-Thermal Plasma| Adsorption and Catalysis,The feasibility of C(3)F(8) abatement via combining nonthermal plasma with adsorption and/or catalysis is investigated in this study. In terms of the simultaneous combination of plasma| adsorption and catalysis (CPAC)| three different configurations including A/C layer (adsorbent layer prior to catalyst layer)| C/A layer (catalyst layer prior to adsorbent layer) and A/C mixture (adsorbent and catalyst are mechanically mixed) are adopted. For all the experimental tests conducted in this study| the gas stream consists of 500 ppm C(3)F(8)| 2% O(2)| and balanced N(2). The experimental results indicate that C(3)F(8) removal efficiencies depend on what kind of packing material is adopted (adsorbent| catalyst or both) and how the material is packed within the plasma reactor. The removal efficiencies obtained with different reactors are in the order as: CPAC (A/C layer; AC mixture) > CPA (plasma with adsorbent alone) > CPC (plasma with catalyst alone) > CPAC (C/A layer). The indentified products after treatment include CO(2)| CO| N(2)O and CF(4). The formation of C(2)F(6) is not observed in this study| which is encouraging since the global warming potential of C(2)F(6) is actually higher than that of C(3)F(8). 12407,2011,3,3,Removal of the potent greenhouse gas NF(3) by reactions with the atmospheric oxidants O((1)D)| OH and O(3),Nitrogen trifluoride| NF(3)| a trace gas of purely anthropogenic origin with a large global warming potential is accumulating in the Earth's atmosphere. Large uncertainties are however associated with its atmospheric removal rate. In this work| experimental and theoretical kinetic tools were used to study the reactions of NF(3) with three of the principal gas-phase atmospheric oxidants: O((1)D)| OH and O(3). For reaction (R2) with O((1)D)| rate coefficients of k(2)(212-356 K) = (2.0 +/- 0.3) x 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) were obtained in direct competitive kinetics experiments| and experimental and theoretical evidence was obtained for F-atom product formation. These results indicate that whilst photolysis in the stratosphere remains the principal fate of NF(3)| reaction with O((1)D) is significant and was previously underestimated in atmospheric lifetime calculations. Experimental evidence of F-atom production from 248 nm photolysis of NF(3) was also obtained| indicating that quantum yields for NF(3) destruction remain significant throughout the UV. No evidence was found for reaction (R3) of NF(3) with OH indicating that this process makes little or no contribution to NF(3) removal from the atmosphere. An upper-limit of k(3)(298 K) < 4 x 10(-16) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) was obtained experimentally; theoretical analysis suggests that the true rate coefficient is more than ten orders of magnitude smaller. An upper-limit of k(4)(296 K) < 3 x 10(-25) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) was obtained in experiments to investigate O(3) + NF(3) (R4). Altogether these results underpin calculations of a long (several hundred year) lifetime for NF(3). In the course of this work rate coefficients (in units of 10(-11) cm 3 molecule(-1) s(-1)) for removal of O(1 D) by n-C(5)H(12)| k(6) = (50 +/- 5) and by N(2)| k(7) = (3.1 +/- 0.2) were obtained. Uncertainties quoted throughout are 2 sigma precision only. 12067,2011,3,4,Requirements for change in new car buying practices-observations from Sweden,The Swedish car fleet today consists of the largest| heaviest| most powerful and most fuel-consuming automobiles in Europe. This cannot be explained by demographics| national income| geography and climate reasons only. Beyond the reasons for the current state of affairs| the main focus for the present study is to learn more on how the individual car buyer deliberates when considering buying a new automobile. Have there been any substantial changes in preferences| especially in regard to car size| engine choice and the type of fuel (energy source) used to propel the vehicle? Around the individual consumer there are a number of stakeholders that have a vested interest in affecting the choice of the individual consumer. Among these stakeholders| we find car producers| car dealers| importers| the government represented by many different agents| the automobile industry organisations| environmental organisations and representatives for the media. These stakeholders are all taking action in pursuing their interests and achieving their goals| which by nature are in conflict towards other stakeholders. The study maps the way these stakeholders act to affect the development of the new car market. All this is taking place in the midst of the present debate on global warming and increased fuel prices| which enhances the interest from most parties and stakeholders to navigate in these turbulent times of changing consumer preferences and car-buying patterns. 12851,2011,3,3,Research on heavy oil thermal recovery by CO2 steam flooding with help of combination of borehole-surface electric potential and cross-borehole electric potential,With an increasing tendency towards more demand for energy resources| the supply of energy as a focus of global strategy is attracting more and more attention from the world. However| on the one hand| conventional hydrocarbon resources are decreasing gradually| and therefore it is definitely an urgent task to search for renewable and replaceable resources at the present time. On the other hand| it has been proved that the total reserves of heavy oil are already up to 1105x108 tons around the world| which means that exploring heavy oil can be a beneficial supplement for alleviating the shortage of oil and gas. Moreover| it is noteworthy that because the heavy oil can be exploited by heated CO2| collecting and consuming CO2 during the production process will help to relieve global warming. In this study| we take the feasibility of heavy oil recovery by CO2 steam into consideration only from the viewpoint of geophysics. In the process of research| with the help of borehole-surface electric potential and cross-borehole electric potential| the entire procedures from heating heavy oil reservoir and optimizing the location of well to deciding the layer of perforation are exhibited completely. In the course of calculation| potential distributions corresponding to a point source of current are acquired by solving the Poisson equation using a direct and explicit finite difference technique for a lower half-space with 3-D distribution of conductivity. As for computation of a large sparse matrix| the technique of non-zero bandwidth storage and the Incomplete Cholesky Conjugate Gradient method are adopted. The consequences prove that with the assistance of cross-borehole electric potential combining with borehole-surface electric potential| the project of heavy oil recovery by CO2 steam is feasible and effective. 3399,2011,2,4,Resilience in Agriculture through Crop Diversification: Adaptive Management for Environmental Change,Recognition that climate change could have negative consequences for agricultural production has generated a desire to build resilience into agricultural systems. One rational and cost-effective method may be the implementation of increased agricultural crop diversification. Crop diversification can improve resilience in a variety of ways: by engendering a greater ability to suppress pest outbreaks and dampen pathogen transmission| which may worsen under future climate scenarios| as well as by buffering crop production from the effects of greater climate variability and extreme events. Such benefits point toward the obvious value of adopting crop diversification to improve resilience| yet adoption has been slow. Economic incentives encouraging production of a select few crops| the push for biotechnology strategies| and the belief that monocultures are more productive than diversified systems have been hindrances in promoting this strategy. However| crop diversification can be implemented in a variety of forms and at a variety of scales| allowing farmers to choose a strategy that both increases resilience and provides economic benefits. 3271,2011,2,4,Resilience of an isopod population (Cyathura carinata) to multiple stress factors in a temperate estuarine system,The Mondego Estuary (Portugal) underwent major modifications in the late 1980s| because of eutrophication| for which it was developed a restoration programme that has been effective in recovering seagrass beds. Recently| this system has been affected by successive weather extremes: floods| droughts| and heat waves. The effect of these multiple stressors on a Cyathura carinata (Isopoda) population has been evaluated| through a long-term data series (16 years) in a seagrass bed| an intermediate area| and a sand flat. A well age-structured and abundant population of C. carinata was observed in the sand flat| in contrast with the seagrass bed and intermediate area. After introducing the restoration measures| C. carinata's abundance increased even in the stations where it was formerly scarce. This recovery was compromised by successive extreme events. C. carinata declined severely in terms of total abundance and growth production during the 2003 summer heat wave| at the sand flat| also endangering its reproductive success. Floods and droughts affected dispersion of the individuals| which was reflected in the population's density and production. Nevertheless| this isopod had great resilience| recovering successfully after disturbances. In contrast| the population of C. carinata had less resilience in the seagrass bed and intermediate area| being unable to recover after a succession of disturbances| which may threaten the success of this species in the system. Because the frequency and intensity of weather extremes are expected to continue to increase in a scenario of global climate change| their repercussions will affect such populations| which will have difficulty surviving. This will have severe implications on the functioning of the whole ecosystem. 12841,2011,4,4,Resource Location and Relocation Models with Rolling Horizon Forecasting for Wildland Fire Planning,A location and relocation model are proposed for air tanker initial attack basing in California for regional wildland fires that require multiple air tankers that may be co-located at the same air base. The Burning Index from the National Fire Danger Rating System is modeled as a discrete mean-reverting process and estimated from 2001-2006 data for select weather stations at each of 12 California Department of Forestry's units being studied. The standard p-median formulation is changed into a k-server p-median problem to assign multiple servers to a node. Furthermore| this static problem is extended into the time dimension to obtain a chance-constrained dynamic relocation problem. Both problems are solved using branch and bound in the numerical example. The relocation model is shown to perform better than the static location model by as much as 20-30% when using fire weather data to forecast short term future demand for severe fires| whereas relocating without rolling horizon forecasting can be less cost-effective than a static location model. The results suggest that state fire agencies should identify the threshold beyond which it would be more cost-effective to adopt a regional relocation model with forecasting from fire weather data| especially in a global warming environment. 11584,2011,3,4,Resources and eco-environmental protection of salt lakes in China,The Chinese salt lake mega-region is controlled by an arid and semi-arid climate| and modern salt lakes are mainly distributed within areas with mean annual precipitation < 500 mm. According to their geomorphological features| structural conditions| and material composition| salt lakes in China can be broadly divided into four regions. The degrees of exploitation and utilization of these salt lakes differ because these four regions have experienced different climatic changes and structural activities and have had their own characteristics of salt lake evolution since the beginning of the Quaternary. The salt lakes in these regions have different scales| economic value| and technical conditions for traffic. Among others| Jarantai (Jartai) Salt Lake and Yuncheng Salt Lake are better in terms of comprehensive utilization and environmental protection| and the potash salt lakes represented by Qarhan are most important in terms of exploitation. At present| there exist many environmental problems in the salt lake regions of China| especially in remote| small and medium-sized basins| where abusive or wasteful mining| low recovery| and mining of a single saline mineral have caused impoverishment and large quantities of byproducts. Furthermore| climatic environmental factors can also cause significant changes of salt lake environment. Since 1987| against the background of global warming| the climate in the northwest salt lake region has turned warm and wet| and lakes have exhibited a tendency for expansion and rise| whereas in the east of the region| the climate has remained in a warm dry stage| lake levels have dropped| and salt lakes have become desertified. With the implementation of the strategy of building an environmentally friendly society in China| increasing attention is being paid to eco-environmental protection. It is suggested that experience and advanced techniques in terms of comprehensive utilization| overall development| and environmental protection of salt lakes at home and abroad be further developed to strengthen observation and monitoring of environmental changes of salt lakes and build an environmentally friendly| great salt lake industry. 12689,2011,2,4,Respiratory Response of the Deep-Sea Amphipod Stephonyx biscayensis Indicates Bathymetric Range Limitation by Temperature and Hydrostatic Pressure,Depth zonation of fauna on continental margins is well documented. Whilst increasing hydrostatic pressure with depth has long been considered a factor contributing significantly to this pattern| discussion of the relative significance of decreasing temperature with depth has continued. This study investigates the physiological tolerances of fed and starved specimens of the bathyal lysianassoid amphipod Stephonyx biscayensis at varying temperature to acute pressure exposure by measuring the rate of oxygen consumption. Acclimation to atmospheric pressure is shown to have no significant interaction with temperature and/or pressure effects. Similarly| starvation is shown to have no significant effect on the interaction of temperature and pressure. Subsequently| the effect of pressure on respiration rate is revealed to be dependent on temperature: pressure equivalent to 2000 m depth was tolerated at 1 and 3 degrees C; pressure equivalent to 2500 m depth was tolerated at 5.5 degrees C; at 10 degrees C pressure equivalent to 3000 m depth was tolerated. The variation in tolerance is consistent with the natural distribution range reported for this species. There are clear implications for hypotheses relating to the observed phenomenon of a biodiversity bottleneck between 2000 and 3000 metres| and for the potential for bathymetric range shifts in response to global climate change. 12663,2011,2,4,Response and adaptation of soybean systems to climate warming in Northeast China: insights gained from long-term field trials,Developing and assessing successful strategies to alleviate adverse impact of climate warming presents a new opportunity for sustainable agriculture and adaptation investment. Efforts to anticipate adaptation of cropping systems may benefit from understanding the global warming effects within decades. This study quantitatively examines the temperature warming impacts during| respectively| growing season and seed filling on soybean yields by using data from long-term field fertilisation experiments from 1987 to 2004. Here we report that grain yields significantly decreased with rising temperature during growing season| whereas the effects of increasing temperature at seed-filling stage on crop yields were significantly positive. The results indicate that a further temperature increment during seed filling appears to decrease soybean system's risk of yield reduction. Importantly| we inferred that earlier occurrence of seed filling would increase the temperature of this period. The implication is that advancing the onset of soybean seed filling could be an effective adaptation option to global warming| providing an average yield benefit of similar to 14% per 10 days before the present date. 12211,2011,4,4,Response and impact of equatorial ocean dynamics and tropical instability waves in the tropical Atlantic under global warming: A regional coupled downscaling study,A regional coupled model is used for a dynamic downscaling over the tropical Atlantic based on a global warming simulation carried out with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1. The regional coupled model features a realistic representation of equatorial ocean dynamical processes such as the tropical instability waves (TIWs) that are not adequately simulated in many global coupled climate models. The coupled downscaling hence provides a unique opportunity to assess their response and impact in a changing climate. Under global warming| both global and regional models exhibit an increased (decreased) rainfall in the tropical northeast (South) Atlantic. Given this asymmetric change in mean state| the regional model produces the intensified near-surface cross-equatorial southerly wind and zonal currents. The equatorial cold tongue exhibits a reduced surface warming due to the enhanced upwelling. It is mainly associated with the increased vertical velocities driven by cross-equatorial wind| in contrast to the equatorial Pacific| where thermal stratification is suggested to be more important under global warming. The strengthened upwelling and zonal currents in turn amplify the dynamic instability of the equatorial ocean| thereby intensifying TIWs. The increased eddy heat flux significantly warms the equator and counters the effect of enhanced upwelling. Zonal eddy heat flux makes the largest contribution| suggesting a need for sustained monitoring of TIWs with spatially denser observational arrays in the equatorial oceans. Overall| results suggest that eddy heat flux is an important factor that may impact the mean state warming of equatorial oceans| as it does in the current climate. 12801,2011,2,4,Response of a shallow-water sediment system to warming,Effects of predicted global warming (+4 degrees C) on the structure and function of a temperate shallow-water sediment system were studied for 1.5 months during spring (March-April)| using intact sediment in a flow-through system under close to natural light conditions. Although significant effects from temperature were observed during the entire experimental period| many were rather moderate and probably a combination of both direct and indirect effects. With the exception of an earlier development of floating microalgal mats at raised temperature| dividing the autotrophic compartment into a benthic and pelagic part| autotrophic variables| such as oxygen production| biomass| and species composition of benthic microalgae did not respond to warming. However| uptake of nutrients did increase| strengthening the role of shallow-water sediments as sinks for inorganic nutrients in spring. As hypothesized| heterotrophic variables (bacterial production| meiofaunal biomass| and dark fluxes of oxygen and total alkalinity) responded more clearly to warming than did autotrophic variables. Warming is generally hypothesized to push ecosystems towards heterotrophy| but there was no support for this in the present study. Although community respiration and anaerobic mineralization increased| the system remained highly autotrophic during the entire experiment due to the photosynthetic activity of benthic microalgae. The presence of a well-developed benthic microalgal community| already in early spring| appeared to moderate the temperature response. It therefore seems that| in spring| benthic microalgae dampen ecological consequences of global warming in illuminated sediment systems by maintaining the system net autotrophic. 12869,2011,2,4,RESPONSE OF ALPINE PLANT COMMUNITY TO SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGE: TWO-YEAR RESULTS OF RECIPROCAL TRANSLOCATION EXPERIMENT (TIBETAN PLATEAU),The great sensitivity of the response of alpine plant community to climate change makes the identification of these responses important. In 2007| we conducted a reciprocal translocation experiment on 100 x 100 x 40 cm coherent turf and soil along an elevation gradient of 3200-3800 m on the south slope of Qilian Mountains northeast of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The aim was to understand the warming/cooling effects on the alpine ecosystem where treatments were simulated by donor elevations below/above receptors. Translocated vegetation comprised the Kobresia meadow at 3200 m| deciduous shrub meadow at 3400 m| forbs meadow at 3600 m| and sparse vegetation at 3800 m. The 5 x 5 cm grid method (50 x 50 cm| 100 grids) was used for surveying plant species absolute abundance in translocated quadrats. Results showed that species richness and Shannon-Weaver index of Kobresia meadow increased significantly (P <0.05) when translocated to 3400 m. Shannon-Weaver index of shrub meadow declined| while shrub species abundance responded slightly both to warming and cooling treatments. Both species richness and Shannon-Weaver index of forbs meadow and sparse vegetation were enhanced evidently at 3200 m and 3400 m. Four groups were identified by non-metric multidimensional scaling based on receptor elevation. Responses of the alpine plant community and the function group appeared to be specific to climate magnitude and specific to function type| respectively. Correlation indicated that climatic factors played a much more important role than soil in the response of the alpine plant community. Four vegetation types were sensitive to climate change| while Kobresia meadow behaved flexibly. Global warming would depress sedges but favor legumes and graminoids. 11648,2011,2,3,Response of precipitation extremes to idealized global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: towards a robust projection across different horizontal resolutions,Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation extremes to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles| a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation extremes. 12158,2011,2,4,Response of the Hadley Circulation to Climate Change in an Aquaplanet GCM Coupled to a Simple Representation of Ocean Heat Transport,It is unclear how the width and strength of the Hadley circulation are controlled and how they respond to climate changes. Simulations of global warming scenarios with comprehensive climate models suggest the Hadley circulation may widen and weaken as the climate warms. But these changes are not quantitatively consistent among models| and how they come about is not understood. Here| a wide range of climates is simulated with an idealized moist general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a simple representation of ocean heat transport| in order to place past and possible future changes in the Hadley circulation into a broader context and to investigate the mechanisms responsible for them. By comparison of simulations with and without ocean heat transport| it is shown that it is essential to take low-latitude ocean heat transport and its coupling to wind stress into account to obtain Hadley circulations in a dynamical regime resembling Earth's| particularly in climates resembling present-day Earth's and colder. As the optical thickness of an idealized longwave absorber in the simulations is increased and the climate warms| the Hadley circulation strengthens in colder climates and weakens in warmer climates; it has maximum strength in a climate close to present-day Earth's. In climates resembling present-day Earth's and colder| the Hadley circulation strength is largely controlled by the divergence of angular momentum fluxes associated with eddies of midlatitude origin; the latter scale with the mean available potential energy in midlatitudes. The importance of these eddy momentum fluxes for the Hadley circulation strength gradually diminishes as the climate warms. The Hadley circulation generally widens as the climate warms| but at a modest rate that depends sensitively on how it is determined. 12782,2011,2,3,Response of the Indian Ocean Basin Mode and Its Capacitor Effect to Global Warming,The development of the Indian Ocean basin (JOB) mode and its change under global warming are investigated using a pair of integrations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1). In the simulation under constant climate forcing| the El Nino-induced warming over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and its capacitor effect on summer northwest Pacific climate are reproduced realistically. In the simulation forced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations| the IOB mode and its summer capacitor effect are enhanced in persistence following El Nino| even though the ENSO itself weakens in response to global warming. In the prior spring| an antisymmetric pattern of rainfall wind anomalies and the meridional SST gradient across the equator strengthen via increased wind evaporation sea surface temperature (WES) feedback. ENSO decays slightly faster in global warming. During the summer following El Nino decay| the resultant decrease in equatorial Pacific SST strengthens the SST contrast with the enhanced TIO warming| increasing the sea level pressure gradient and intensifying the anomalous anticyclone over the northwest Pacific. The easterly wind anomalies associated with the northwest Pacific anticyclone in turn sustain the SST warming over the north Indian Ocean and South China Sea. Thus| the increased TIO capacitor effect is due to enhanced air sea interaction over the TIO and with the western Pacific. The implications for the observed intensification of the IOB mode and its capacitor effect after the 1970s are discussed. 11877,2011,2,4,Response of the ocean mixed layer depth to global warming and its impact on primary production: a case for the North Pacific Ocean,This study investigates changes in the mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific Ocean in response to global warming and their impact on primary production by comparing outputs from 11 models of the coupled model intercomparison projects phase 3. The MLD in the 21st century decreases in most regions of the North Pacific| whereas the spatial pattern of the MLD is nearly unchanged. The overall shoaling results in part from intensified upper-ocean stratification caused by both surface warming and freshening. A significant MLD decrease (>30 m) is found in the Kuroshio extension (KE)| which is predominantly driven by reduced surface cooling| caused by weakening of wind. Associated with the mixed layer shoaling in the KE| the primary production component resulting from seasonal vertical mixing will be reduced by 10.7-40.3% (ranges of medians from 11 models) via decreased nitrate fluxes from below it. Spring blooms in most models are projected to initiate earlier in the KE by 0-13 d (ranges of medians from 11 models). Despite the overall trends| the magnitude of changes in primary production and timing of spring blooms are quite different depending on models and latitudes. 11702,2011,2,3,Response of the Pacific Ocean Circulation to Climate Change,The response of the Pacific Ocean circulation to climate change is investigated by comparing solutions from a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled models for a present-day climate (the 20C3M experiments) and a future| warmer climate (the SRESA1B experiments). Under the warmer climate scenario| the oceanic changes in the tropical Pacific include a relatively weak warming of the western equatorial thermocline| a weakening of the surface current system and a complicated change in the structure of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) with an increased flow in its upper branch but a decreased flow in its lower branch. As the climate warms| the North Pacific Ocean features a basin-scale reduction in mixed layer depth| a weakening of the subtropical countercurrent (STCC)| a northward shift of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) and an overall slowdown of the subtropical gyre. In the South Pacific| the warmer climate induces significant changes in the upper ocean of the eastern subtropics including a relatively weak warming| a deepening of mixed layer depth and an anticylonic circulation. 11811,2011,2,4,Response of the South Atlantic circulation to an abrupt collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation,The South Atlantic response to a collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. A reduced Agulhas leakage (about 3.1 Sv; 1 Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) is found to be associated with a weaker Southern Hemisphere (SH) supergyre and Indonesian throughflow. These changes are due to reduced wind stress curl over the SH supergyre| associated with a weaker Hadley circulation and a weaker SH subtropical jet. The northward cross-equatorial transport of thermocline and intermediate waters is much more strongly reduced than Agulhas leakage in relation with an AMOC collapse. A cross-equatorial gyre develops due to an anomalous wind stress curl over the tropics that results from the anomalous sea surface temperature gradient associated with reduced ocean heat transport. This cross-equatorial gyre completely blocks the transport of thermocline waters from the South to the North Atlantic. The waters originating from Agulhas leakage flow somewhat deeper and most of it recirculates in the South Atlantic subtropical gyre| leading to a gyre intensification. This intensification is consistent with the anomalous surface cooling over the South Atlantic. Most changes in South Atlantic circulation due to global warming| featuring a reduced AMOC| are qualitatively similar to the response to an AMOC collapse| but smaller in amplitude. However| the increased northward cross-equatorial transport of intermediate water relative to thermocline water is a strong fingerprint of an AMOC collapse. 12545,2011,2,4,Response of Tropical Precipitation to Global Warming,Using high-resolution cloud-resolving simulations with different CO(2) concentrations| local precipitation fluxes are found to obey Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. Previous studies of the effect of CO(2) concentration on precipitation extremes have used general circulation models| which are poor platforms for studying tropical convection because convection is parameterized. In idealized cloud-resolving simulations| it is possible to identify not only the changes in local precipitation fluxes| but also the factors responsible for those changes. There are many properties of convection that can change as the atmosphere warms| each of which could produce deviations from CC scaling. These properties include the effective water-vapor gradient| cloud pressure depth| and cloud velocity. A simple theory is developed that predicts the changes in these properties consistent with CC scaling. Convection in the cloud-resolving simulations is found to change as predicted by this theory| leading to an similar to 20% increase in local precipitation fluxes when the CO(2) concentration is doubled. Overall| an increase in CO(2) leads to more vigorous convection| composed of clouds that are wider| taller| and faster. 11695,2011,2,4,Responses of biomass growth and grain yield of midseason rice to the anticipated warming with FATI facility in East China,Crop model projections and historical data analyses have shown that global warming may cause serious decrease in crop productivity| however| many uncertainities remain on the impact quantification due to the unclear understanding of actual crop response. Therefore| we performed a three-year field warming experiment with free air temperature increase (FATI) facility to investigate the actual response of midseason rice growth in East China. There were four treatments (AW: all-day warming; DW: daytime warming; NW: nighttime warming; CK: ambient control) with three replicates. This FATI facility presented a good simulation of the local air temperature pattern with an increase in the daily mean temperature of about 1.1-2.0 degrees C during rice whole growth duration compared to the ambient control. Warming shortened the pre-heading phase respectively by 3.3 d| 1.7 d and 2.0 d in the AW. DW and NW plots| while the post-heading phase stayed almost unchanged. During the three years| warming slightly decreased the aboveground biomass by an average of 9.1%| 10.3% and 3.3%| and the grain yield by an average of 0.9%| 6.4% and 6.1% in the AW| DW and NW plots| respectively. Warming tended to decrease rice photosynthesis rate and stimulate the nighttime respiration rate. It also enlarged the flag leaf area and increased its chlorophyll content. No significant difference and interaction in the actual response of rice growth were found between the warming regimes. The above evidences suggest that the expected warming less than 2.0 degrees C may not cause significant decrease in rice productivity in East China. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3436,2011,2,4,Responses of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved nitrogen in surface water and soil to CO(2) enrichment in paddy field,Increasing evidences have shown that dissolved organic components are responsible for the significant C and N exports from terrestrial ecosystems to the surrounding aquatic ecosystems and very sensitive to CO(2) enrichment. However| there is still a lack of direct evidence about CO(2)-led effects on these components at the ecosystem scale| especially in wetlands. We| therefore| simultaneously investigated the contents of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved nitrogen (DN) in the surface water and soil layer in a paddy field under FACE facility in Eastern China. Elevated CO(2) significantly increased the contents of DOC and DN in the surface water by 18.0% and 14.3% on average. Elevated CO(2) also increased DOC content in the soil| but decreased DN content. The contents of DOC and DN in the soil-water interface of 0-1cm soil layer were Dn average 22.4% and 47.5% higher than in the 5-15 cm soil layer. Besides| significant higher DOC and DN contents existed in the soil porewater than in the surface water. Due to multiple drainage regime and rainstorm-induced runoffs in rice cropping regions| CO(2)-led DOC and DN increments in the surface water may increase C and N exports from paddies to the surrounding aquatic ecosystems under future climate patterns. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11834,2011,2,4,Responses of grassland vegetation to climatic variations on different temporal scales in Hulun Buir Grassland in the past 30 years,Global warming has led to significant vegetation changes especially in the past 20 years. Hulun Buir Grassland in Inner Mongolia| one of the world's three prairies| is undergoing a process of prominent warming and drying. It is essential to investigate the effects of climatic change (temperature and precipitation) on vegetation dynamics for a better understanding of climatic change. NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)| reflecting characteristics of plant growth| vegetation coverage and biomass| is used as an indicator to monitor vegetation changes. GIMMS NDVI from 1981 to 2006 and MODIS NDVI from 2000 to 2009 were adopted and integrated in this study to extract the time series characteristics of vegetation changes in Hulun Buir Grassland. The responses of vegetation coverage to climatic change on the yearly| seasonal and monthly scales were analyzed combined with temperature and precipitation data of seven meteorological sites. In the past 30 years| vegetation coverage was more correlated with climatic factors| and the correlations were dependent on the time scales. On an inter-annual scale| vegetation change was better correlated with precipitation| suggesting that rainfall was the main factor for driving vegetation changes. On a seasonal-interannual scale| correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors showed that the sensitivity of vegetation growth to the aqueous and thermal condition changes was different in different seasons. The sensitivity of vegetation growth to temperature in summers was higher than in the other seasons| while its sensitivity to rainfall in both summers and autumns was higher| especially in summers. On a monthly-interannual scale| correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors during growth seasons showed that the response of vegetation changes to temperature in both April and May was stronger. This indicates that the temperature effect occurs in the early stage of vegetation growth. Correlations between vegetation growth and precipitation of the month before the current month| were better from May to August| showing a hysteresis response of vegetation growth to rainfall. Grasses get green and begin to grow in April| and the impacts of temperature on grass growth are obvious. The increase of NDVI in April may be due to climatic warming that leads to an advanced growth season. In summary| relationships between monthly-interannual variations of vegetation coverage and climatic factors represent the temporal rhythm controls of temperature and precipitation on grass growth largely. 11745,2011,2,3,Responses of South and East Asian summer monsoons to different land-sea temperature increases under a warming scenario,We used outputs from climate models that participated in the fourth assessment (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to evaluate the responses of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulations to different warming over land and ocean under a medium warming scenario| SRES A1B. Our results suggest that| even though near-surface warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is greater than that over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the northwestern Pacific (NWP)| the upper-tropospheric land-sea thermal contrasts between the TP and the TIO (TP-TIO) and between the TP and the NWP (TP-NWP) will decrease. At interdecadal and longer time scales| the change in the SASM circulation is consistent with the TP-TIO upper-troposphere thermal contrast. Conversely| the change in the EASM circulation is consistent with the TP-NWP lower-troposphere thermal contrast. However| at the interannual time scale| both changes in the EASM and SASM are significantly correlated with the upper-troposphere thermal contrast. Further analyses suggest that increases in moisture and changes in cloud cover induced by global warming may cause amplified upper-tropospheric warming over the TP and the oceans resulting in inconsistent changes in the vertical temperature distribution over these regions. Because the warming over the TIO and NWP is greater than that over the TP| the TP-TIO meridional and TP-NWP zonal thermal contrasts will both decrease. However| at the lower layer| the difference in thermal capacity between land and sea result in a larger thermal effect in the near-surface region of the TP than those over the surrounding oceans. We showed that a range of factors that affect thermal conditions will likely cause changes in the Asian monsoon across a range of time scales under a warming scenario. These changes reflect differences in the influence of the greenhouse effect and natural variability. 11570,2011,2,4,Responses of time of anthesis and maturity to sowing dates and infrared warming in spring wheat,Reliable prediction of the potential impacts of global warming on agriculture requires accurate data on crop responses to elevated temperatures. Controlled environments can precisely regulate temperature but may impose unrealistic radiation| photoperiod and humidity regimes. Infrared warming with automatic control of temperature rise has shown potential for warming field plots above ambient temperatures| while avoiding such biases. In a field experiment conducted at Maricopa| AZ| we assessed the utility of a temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) approach by comparing phenology of wheat from a series of six sowing date treatments using T-FACE and an additional nine sowing dates that exposed crops to an exceptionally wide range of air temperatures (<0 degrees C to >40 degrees C). The T-FACE treatments were intended to achieve a warming of +1.5 degrees C during the daytime and +3.0 degrees C at night: the achieved warming averaged +1.3 degrees C during daytime and +2.8 degrees C at night. T-FACE and sowing date treatments had large effects on phenology. A regression-based analysis of simulations with the CSM-CROPSIM-CERES model showed that effects of T-FACE on phenology were similar to what would be expected from equivalent changes in air temperature. However| systematic deviations from the expected 1-to-1 relation suggested that assumed cardinal temperatures for phenology should be revised. Based on the single cultivar and location| it appeared that the base temperature for emergence to anthesis should be reduced from 0 degrees C to -5 degrees C| whereas the base temperature for grain filling should be increased from 0 degrees C to 4 degrees C and the optimal temperature| from 30 degrees C to 34 degrees C. Both T-FACE and extreme sowing date treatments proved valuable for improving understanding of high temperature effects on plant processes| as required for accurate prediction of crop responses to elevated temperatures under climate change. Published by Elsevier B.V. 11855,2011,2,4,RESPONSES OF TREE ISLANDS TO AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT TREELINE ON NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE CHANGBAI MOUNTAINS,A total of 60 scattered tree islands from seven typical plots were collected in the upper treeline on the north-facing slopes of the Changbai Mountains. We selected eight ecological variables related to air temperature| which were simulated based on measured air temperature data and the records at the Tianchi meteorological station. Annual stem recruitment of the Betula ermanii (Ermans Birch) population was calculated using tree-ring analysis and field observations. We linked these ecological variables with annual stem recruitment from 1953 to 2008 to examine the relationship between population dynamics and air temperature change. Our results showed that the mean annual rate of air temperature increase was 0.045 degrees C/yr between 1953 and 2008| which was far higher than that of global average warming| suggesting that the study area may be more sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. Different propagation forms and annual stem recruitment of the Betula ermanii population responded significantly to the increase of air temperature. The population first occupied a point niche using the shrub life form during the period 1953-1988| when air temperature increased at a slow pace (0.007 degrees C/yr on average). In contrast| the population expanded its niche rapidly using a single-trunk life form during the period 1988-2008| when air temperature increased at a much faster pace (0.11 degrees C/yr on average). Under global warming| the population expansion and the domain enlargement of Betula ermanii led to a treeline shift. The population has continued to vary its physiological traits to adapt to air temperature change. 12657,2011,2,4,Responses of various saltgrass (Distichlis spicata) clones to drought stress at different mowing heights,Conversion of agricultural lands and continuous desertification processes due to urban development and global warming causes increasing evapotranspiration rates resulting in more water deficit and drought stress conditions. This phenomenon mandates use of low quality waters for irrigation| especially in regions experiencing water shortage. Using low quality water for irrigation imposes more stress on plants which are already under stress in these regions. Thus| a reasonable remedy could be finding drought tolerant plant species to survive/sustain under such stressful water deficit conditions. Since the native plants are already growing under such conditions and are adapted to these stresses| they are the most suitable candidates fir use under these harsh arid conditions. If drought tolerant species/genotypes of these native plants are identified| there would be a substantial success in re-vegetation of the arid regions by using these plant species under these stressful conditions. Our studies on various native grasses indicated that saltgrass| a drought tolerant species with very low water requirements| has a great potential to be used under harsh environmental desert conditions and combat desertification. The objectives of this study were to find the most drought tolerant types of various saltgrass clones and to recommend them as the potential species for use under arid regions and areas with limited water supplies or drought conditions for sustainable agriculture and combating desertification. Various saltgrass clones were studied in a greenhouse to evaluate their growth responses under prolonged drought stress at different mowing heights. Grasses were grown vegetatively in galvanized cans contained fritted clay. The growth responses of the grasses were evaluated under progressive drought condition for 4 months in a split plot design experiment with 3 replications at two mowing heights. Shoots were harvested bi-weekly for DM determination and grass quality was weekly evaluated. Although growth responses reduced as drought period progressed| all the grasses showed a high degree of drought tolerance. However| there was a wide range of variations observed in drought tolerance among the clones at each mowing height. At the termination of the drought period| some clones did not survive| while some showed about 20% green canopy. Compared with the 5 cm mowing height| the 2.5 cm mowing height grasses maintained their canopy green color for longer time. The superior drought tolerant clones were identified which could be recommended as the potential turfgrass species for use under regions with limited water supplies or drought conditions as well as for sustainable production under arid regions and combating desertification processes. 11827,2011,2,4,Responses to climate by tree-ring widths and maximum latewood densities of two Abies species at upper and lower altitudinal distribution limits in central Japan,This study examined the effects of climate on tree-ring widths and maximum latewood densities of Abies veitchii and Abies mariesii at the upper and lower distribution limits in central Japan. A. veitchii and A. mariesii dominated at the lower and upper parts of the subalpine zone| respectively. Residual chronologies of tree-ring width and maximum latewood density were developed for the two Abies species at the upper and lower distribution limits| and were compared with monthly mean temperatures and monthly sums of precipitation. Tree-ring widths of the two Abies species at the upper and lower distribution limits positively correlated with temperatures during the beginning of the dormant season and during the growing season of the current year| except for A. veitchii at the lower distribution limit| which showed no positive correlation with temperature. Maximum latewood densities of the two Abies species at the upper and lower distribution limits positively and negatively correlated with temperatures and precipitation| respectively| during the growing season of the current year. Therefore| tree-ring widths and maximum latewood densities of the two Abies species were sensitive to low temperature| except for the tree-ring width of A. veitchii at the lower distribution limit with the warmest thermal conditions along the altitude. Global warming is suggested to affect maximum latewood densities and tree-ring widths of the two Abies species along the altitude. 3354,2011,2,2,Responses to historical climate change identify contemporary threats to diversity in Dodecatheon,Anthropogenic climate change may threaten many species with extinction. However| species at risk today survived global climate change in recent geological history. Describing how habitat tracking and adaptation allowed species to survive warming since the end of the Pleistocene can indicate the relative importance of dispersal and natural selection during climate change. By taking this historical perspective| we can identify how contemporary climate change could interfere with these mechanisms and threaten the most vulnerable species. We focused on a group of closely related plant species in the genus Dodecatheon (Primulaceae) in eastern North America. Two rare species (Dodecatheon amethystinum and Dodecatheon frenchii) that are endemic to patchy cool cliffs may be glacial relicts whose ranges constricted following the last glacial maximum. Alternatively| these species may be extreme ecotypes of a single widespread species (Dodecatheon meadia) that quickly adapted to microclimatic differences among habitats. We test support for these alternative scenarios by combining ecophysiological and population genetic data at a regional scale. An important ecophysiological trait distinguishes rare species from D. meadia| but only a few northern populations of D. amethystinum are genetically distinctive. These relict populations indicate that habitat tracking did occur with historical climate change. However| relatively stronger evidence for isolation by distance and admixture suggests that local adaptation and genetic introgression have been at least as important. The complex response of Dodecatheon to historical climate change suggests that contemporary conservation efforts should accommodate evolutionary processes| in some cases by restoring genetic connectivity between ecologically differentiated populations. 3378,2011,3,3,Restoring Coastal Plants to Improve Global Carbon Storage: Reaping What We Sow,Long-term carbon capture and storage (CCS) is currently considered a viable strategy for mitigating rising levels of atmospheric CO(2) and associated impacts of global climate change. Until recently| the significant below-ground CCS capacity of coastal vegetation such as seagrasses| salt marshes| and mangroves has largely gone unrecognized in models of global carbon transfer. However| this reservoir of natural| free| and sustainable carbon storage potential is increasingly jeopardized by alarming trends in coastal habitat loss| totalling 30-50% of global abundance over the last century alone. Human intervention to restore lost habitats is a potentially powerful solution to improve natural rates of global CCS| but data suggest this approach is unlikely to substantially improve long-term CCS unless current restoration efforts are increased to an industrial scale. Failure to do so raises the question of whether resources currently used for expensive and time-consuming restoration projects would be more wisely invested in arresting further habitat loss and encouraging natural recovery. 12391,2011,2,3,Rethinking adaptation for a 4 degrees C world,With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation| it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4 degrees C and more of global warming. In such a world| adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4 degrees C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2 degrees C; it will be a more substantial| continuous and transformative process. However| a variety of psychological| social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes| with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper| we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime| the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly. 11581,2011,2,4,Revised heating degree days due to global warming for 15 major cities of South Korea,Because of the rapid rise in ambient temperatures in urban cities due to global warming| this research study was conducted to revise the heating degree days (HDDs) for main cities of South Korea. Current HDDs used in the design of heating systems were established some 30 years ago. Therefore| there is a need to revisit and revise the HDDs used in Korea. The HDDs were computed at five different indoor set-point and unloaded temperatures. The validity of the methodology used for computing HDDs was ascertained by comparing the calculated HDDs with the published values. The impact of the length of time on total annual HDDs was examined. The results show that higher temperature trends due to global warming witnessed over the past decade in general decreased the HDDs. The impact was higher for warmer climate cities than the cold regions. The revised annual HDDs for 15 major cities of South Korea are presented in this paper. Practical applications: The HDDs corrected for global warming effects for 15 major cities of South Korea presented in this article are useful for designers in estimating the impact on equipment size and energy consumption. Towards this end| several scenarios of global warming effects are presented by assuming several unloaded temperature levels. This is useful for the designers in examining the uncertainties in the estimation of energy consumption. The results published are also important for policy makers in South Korea to examine the need for revising the degree day database in light of the global warming trends. 11726,2011,2,4,Revision of chamois infection by lung nematodes under ecological conditions of national parks of Slovakia with respect to ongoing global climate changes,The aim of our study was to analyze helminth status and to evaluate ecological conditions for infections of chamois with lung nematodes in national parks of Slovakia during global warming. The autopsies and larvoscopic examination of faeces collected from localities inhabited by Tatra chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra tatrica) in Tatra National Park (TANAP) and Low Tatras National Park (NAPANT) revealed the presence of following protostrongylids: Muellerius capillaris| Neostrongylus linearis and the specific chamois species Muellerius tenuispiculatus. Same species of lung nematodes were found in introduced chamois of Alpine origin (Rupicapra rupicapra rupicapra) in the Slovak National Park VeA3/4ka Fatra (NAPVF) and the Slovak Paradise National Park (NAPSR)| and in the latter park also geohelminth Dictyocaulus viviparus was sporadically determined. The mean prevalence of lung nematodes in individual parks varied from 70.9 to 97.2 %. The mean number of L1 larvae per 1 g of faeces in Tatra chamois from TANAP in Belianske Tatras and in Alpine subspecies from NAPSR corresponded to a high level of infection (120.3 and 110.1| respectively). In other studied biotopes the mean number of L1 larvae (19.4-42.5) revealed the moderate infection. Although no significant differences concerning levels of infection within the monitored years were observed| the level of infection during the summer was significantly lower than that during spring and autumn periods. The variety of snail species as the intermediate hosts of lung nematodes provide suitable conditions for the development of lung nematodes in the all studied Slovak National Parks. Global climatic changes have also likely contributed to an increase of infectivity rate. 12046,2011,2,4,Revisiting the trend of the tropical and subtropical Pacific surface latent heat flux during 1977-2006,Using the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes data provided by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and the trend empirical orthogonal function analysis method| we have investigated the trend of ocean surface latent heat flux (LHF) over the tropical and subtropical Pacific (100 degrees E-70 degrees W| 35 degrees S-35 degrees N) during the period 1977-2006. The present study suggests that the ocean surface LHF presents a large-scale upward trend pattern| and the identified positive surface LHF trend is closely associated with both the sea surface temperature (SST) warming and the surface wind speed strengthening. The SST increasing is the primary direct/local cause of the surface LHF trend| while the large-scale surface wind speed strengthening| ascribed to its contribution to the observed SST trend pattern| is an important indirect/nonlocal factor of the surface LHF trend. The present work also suggests that the coherent upward trends in surface LHF| surface wind speed| and SST should be in essence closely linked to the global warming forcing. To some extent| these results unify the two seemingly contradictory conclusions proposed previously by other researchers and attempt to help obtain a new insight into the causes of the positive basin-scale surface LHF trend. 12126,2011,2,3,Rising Arctic Ocean temperatures cause gas hydrate destabilization and ocean acidification,Vast amounts of methane hydrates are potentially stored in sediments along the continental margins| owing their stability to low temperature - high pressure conditions. Global warming could destabilize these hydrates and cause a release of methane (CH(4)) into the water column and possibly the atmosphere. Since the Arctic has and will be warmed considerably| Arctic bottom water temperatures and their future evolution projected by a climate model were analyzed. The resulting warming is spatially inhomogeneous| with the strongest impact on shallow regions affected by Atlantic inflow. Within the next 100 years| the warming affects 25% of shallow and mid-depth regions containing methane hydrates. Release of methane from melting hydrates in these areas could enhance ocean acidification and oxygen depletion in the water column. The impact of methane release on global warming| however| would not be significant within the considered time span. Citation: Biastoch| A.| et al. (2011)| Rising Arctic Ocean temperatures cause gas hydrate destabilization and ocean acidification| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L08602| doi: 10.1029/2011GL047222. 12138,2011,2,4,RISK ASSESSMENT OF DENGUE VIRUS AMPLIFICATION IN EUROPE BASED ON SPATIO-TEMPORAL HIGH RESOLUTION CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS,During the last decades dengue incidences are emerging significantly around the globe. Currently| about one fifth of the human population lives in dengue risk zones| which are mainly located in (sub-) tropical regions of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. Dengue infections in European population mainly referred to returning travellers from tropical endemic regions. Nevertheless| vector establishment in Europe already took place and therefore the risk increases. Currently| autochthonous cases of dengue fever have been reported in Europe. Studies estimating the risk of dengue epidemics regarding changing climatic conditions in Europe are missing. Therefore| we close this gap by using the temperature constraints for virus amplification within the vector Aedes aegypti from two laboratory experiments. We transfer these findings to the changing European climate based on data provided from a regional climate model (COSMO-CLM; A1B and B1 scenario). Daily mean temperature were averaged for the time-steps 2011-2040|2041-2070 and 2071-2100 in order to reduce natural variability but rather point out climatic trends for risk assessments. For both scenarios the strongest increase of temperature is projected after mid-century Results indicate a growing threat of virus amplification in Europe especially towards the end of this century. Larger parts of the Mediterranean will be at risk. The southwest of the Iberian Peninsular appears to be especially threatened. Even in some parts of Central Europe| such as Southwest Germany| dengue virus amplification can no longer be excluded at the end of the century However| it is unlikely that Aedes aegypti will serve as an efficient vector in Europe. In fact| it is Aedes albopictus that is an invasive species in Europe and potential differences in extrinsic incubation period between Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have to be identified. Policy and public health authorities have to consider these emerging biorisks in order to establish surveillance systems and develop counteraction strategies. Hence| we strongly emphasize the need for a growing European awareness in the face of biological hazards that are responding to climatic changes. 11944,2011,3,4,Risk of collective failure provides an escape from the tragedy of the commons,From group hunting to global warming| how to deal with collective action may be formulated in terms of a public goods game of cooperation. In most cases| contributions depend on the risk of future losses. Here| we introduce an evolutionary dynamics approach to a broad class of cooperation problems in which attempting to minimize future losses turns the risk of failure into a central issue in individual decisions. We find that decisions within small groups under high risk and stringent requirements to success significantly raise the chances of coordinating actions and escaping the tragedy of the commons. We also offer insights on the scale at which public goods problems of cooperation are best solved. Instead of large-scale endeavors involving most of the population| which as we argue| may be counterproductive to achieve cooperation| the joint combination of local agreements within groups that are small compared with the population at risk is prone to significantly raise the probability of success. In addition| our model predicts that| if one takes into consideration that groups of different sizes are interwoven in complex networks of contacts| the chances for global coordination in an overall cooperating state are further enhanced. 12698,2011,2,4,Risk of tropical hurricanes in the cities of the Gulf de Mexico. Tampico's case,This research is a contribution to the discussion of natural hazards in urban areas in the context of Climate Change. The study analyzes the dangerousness and exposure by tropical cyclones in the metropolitan area of Tampico| which historically has suffered catastrophic flooding. The methodology uses a Geographic Information System for de cartographic integration of the climate| hydrometeorological y geomorphological data| and to determine the space-time frequency and distribution of the extraordinary events associated to the city floods danger. As a result| a valuable mapping of natural hazards associated with the impact of tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall was achieved| which is necessary for future risk management and urban planning of cities in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast warned of an increased risk of flooding in the study area| associated with more extreme hydrometeorological phenomena| possibly linked to global climate change and| above all| the growth of urban areas at risk. In the 21st century| the impact high-intensity tropical cyclones (categories IV and V) in the region are expected. The consequences can be catastrophic for the metropolitan area and its population in a context of lack of planning and prevention. 12323,2011,2,4,Rivers Through Time: Historical Changes in the Riparian Vegetation of the Semi-Arid| Winter Rainfall Region of South Africa in Response to Climate and Land Use,This paper examines how the riparian vegetation of perennial and ephemeral rivers systems in the semi-arid| winter rainfall region of South Africa has changed over time. Using an environmental history approach we assess the extent of change in plant cover at 32 sites using repeat photographs that cover a time span of 36-113 years. The results indicate that in the majority of sites there has been a significant increase in cover of riparian vegetation in both the channel beds and adjacent floodplain environments. The most important species to have increased in cover across the region is Acacia karroo. We interpret the findings in the context of historical changes in climate and land use practices. Damage to riparian vegetation caused by mega-herbivores probably ceased sometime during the early 19th century as did scouring events related to large floods that occurred at regular intervals from the 15th to early 20th centuries. Extensive cutting of riparian vegetation for charcoal and firewood has also declined over the last 150 years. Changes in the grazing history as well as increased abstraction and dam building along perennial rivers in the region also account for some of the changes observed in riparian vegetation during the second half of the 20th century. Predictions of climate change related to global warming anticipate increased drought events with the subsequent loss of species and habitats in the study area. The evidence presented here suggests that an awareness of the region's historical ecology should be considered more carefully in the modelling and formulation of future climate change predictions as well as in the understanding of climate change impacts over time frames of decades and centuries. 12442,2011,3,3,Role of Acid Sites on gamma-Al(2)O(3) Based Catalyst for CF(4) Hydrolysis,PFC (perfluorocompounds)| such as CF(4)| C(2)F(6) and SF(6) are strong global warming gases with 6500 to 23900 times higher global warming potential than CO(2). To decompose PFC over a catalyst effectively| it is necessary to promote their adsorption on the catalyst surface. We focused on the amount of acid sites and added metal oxides to gamma-Al(2)O(3) to increase the acid sites. We found that ZnO/gamma-Al(2)O(3) can decompose CF(4) by more than 99% at about 923 K. Analysis of the catalyst showed a good relationship between the amount of strong acidic sites| which could adsorb NH(3) at up to 973 K| and the rate of CF(4) decomposition. 11759,2011,2,4,Role of essential lipids in determining food quality for the invasive freshwater clam Corbicula fluminea,The invasive clam Corbicula fluminea has become a widespread benthic invertebrate in many freshwater ecosystems throughout Europe and North and South America. Invasive bivalves can dramatically alter the structure of native benthic communities| so understanding the factors responsible for successful invasion is important. We investigated C. fluminea nutritional requirements for essential lipids in a standardized growth experiment. Juvenile clams were fed different cyanobacteria (Aphanizomenon flos-aquae| Anabaena variabilis| Synechococcus elongatus) or eukaryotic algae (Scenedesmus obliquus| Cryptomonas sp.). Somatic growth rates were then correlated with elemental (C:N and C:P) and biochemical (sterol and fatty acid content) components of the food sources and clam tissue. Somatic growth rates were significantly higher when juveniles were fed eukaryotic algae than when fed cyanobacteria. Linear regression analyses revealed significant positive relationships between somatic growth rates and dietary sterol and polyunsaturated fatty acid content. Somatic growth rates also were highly correlated with the total sterol and alpha-linolenic acid content of clam tissues. This result suggests that the growth of C. fluminea is partially dependent on the availability of these essential lipids in the diet. Algal nutritional value may influence the successful geographic spread of this highly invasive species because food quality and quantity are changing as a result of global warming. 12312,2011,3,3,Role of Motor Vehicle Lifetime Extension in Climate Change Policy,Vehicle replacement schemes such as the "cash for clunkers" program in the U.S. and the "scrappage scheme" in the UK have featured prominently in the economic stimulation packages initiated by many governments to cope with the global economic crisis. While these schemes were designed as economic instruments to support the vehicle production industry| governments have also claimed that these programs have environmental benefits such as reducing CO(2) emissions by bringing more fuel-efficient vehicles onto the roads. However| little evidence is available to support this claim as current energy and environmental accounting models are inadequate for comprehensively capturing the economic and environmental trade-offs associated with change's in product life and product use. We therefore developed a new dynamic model to quantify the carbon emissions due to changes in product life and consumer behavior related to product use. Based on a case study of Japanese vehicle use during the 1990-2000 period| we found that extending| not shortening| the lifetime of a vehicle helps to reduce life-cycle CO(2) emissions throughout the supply chain. Empirical results also revealed that even if the fuel economy of less fuel-efficient ordinary passenger vehicles were improved to levels comparable with those of the best available technology| i.e. hybrid passenger cars currently being produced in Japan| total CO(2) emissions would decrease by only 0.2%. On the other hand| we also find that extending the lifetime of a vehicle contributed to a moderate increase in emissions of health-relevant air pollutants (NO(x)| HC| and CO) during the use phase. From the results| this study concludes that the effects of global warming and air pollution can be somewhat moderated and that these problems can be addressed through specific policy instruments directed at increasing the market for hybrid cars as well as extending lifetime of automobiles| which is contrary to the current wisdom. 3278,2011,2,4,Root standing crop and chemistry after six years of soil warming in a temperate forest,Examining the responses of root standing crop (biomass and necromass) and chemistry to soil warming is crucial for understanding root dynamics and functioning in the face of global climate change. We assessed the standing crop| total nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) compounds in tree roots and soil net N mineralization over the growing season after 6 years of experimental soil warming in a temperate deciduous forest in 2008. Roots were sorted into four different categories: live and dead fine roots (<= 1 mm in diameter) and live and dead coarse roots (1-4 mm in diameter). Total root standing crop (live plus dead) in the top 10 cm of soil in the warmed area was 42.5% (378.4 vs. 658.5 g m(-2)) lower than in the control area| while live root standing crop in the warmed area was 62% lower than in the control area. Soil net N mineralization over the growing season increased by 79.4% in the warmed relative to the control area. Soil warming did not significantly change the concentrations of C and C compounds (sugar| starch| hemicellulose| cellulose and lignin) in the four root categories. However| total N concentration in the live fine roots in the warmed area was 10.5% (13.7 vs. 12.4 mg g(-1)) higher and C: N ratio was 8.6% (38.5 vs. 42.1) lower than in the control area. The increase in N concentration in the live fine roots could be attributed to the increase in soil N availability due to soil warming. Net N mineralization was negatively correlated with both live and dead fine roots in the mineral soil that is home to the majority of roots| suggesting that soil warming increases N mineralization| decreases fine root biomass and thus decreases C allocation belowground. 11974,2011,2,4,ROOT ZONE TEMPERATURE INFLUENCES NUTRIENT ACCUMULATION AND USE IN MAIZE,Root-zone temperature (RZT) changes with season| geographical location and global warming. Nutrient accumulation and use behaviour of two maize (Zea mays L.) genotypes were evaluated under low (22.4 +/- 5 degrees C) and high (28.8 +/- 5 degrees C) root-zone temperatures. In greenhouse study| hybrid maize (FHY-396) and indigenous variety (EV-7004) were sown in calcareous loam soil filled in pots. Shoot and root dry matter yield of both the genotypes was significantly (p<0.05) increased at the higher RZT. On an average| shoot dry matter at the higher RZT was 38% more for hybrid and 52% for indigenous variety (EV-7004). Concentration and uptake of estimated nutrients (P| K| Cu and Zn) was significantly (p<0.05) influenced by RZT. At the higher RZT| shoot concentrations of both Cu and Zn were increased by about 30%. There was 1.5-fold increase in P| 1.4-fold increase in K| 1.9-fold increase in Cu and 1.8-fold increase in Zn uptake at the higher RZT. Nutrient uptake (uptake g(-1) root) and use efficiencies (shoot utilization efficiency and usage index) were significantly (p<0.05) increased at the higher RZT. Genotypes also differed significantly (p<0.05) for P and Zn utilization efficiencies. Conclusively| RZT had a pronounced role in nutrient uptake from soil and their use by plants and hence on plant growth. 3203,2011,2,4,Rooting depth explains [CO(2)] x drought interaction in Eucalyptus saligna,Elevated atmospheric [CO(2)] (eC(a)) often decreases stomatal conductance| which may delay the start of drought| as well as alleviate the effect of dry soil on plant water use and carbon uptake. We studied the interaction between drought and eC(a) in a whole-tree chamber experiment with Eucalyptus saligna. Trees were grown for 18 months in their C(a) treatments before a 4-month dry-down. Trees grown in eC(a) were smaller than those grown in ambient C(a) (aC(a)) due to an early growth setback that was maintained throughout the duration of the experiment. Pre-dawn leaf water potentials were not different between C(a) treatments| but were lower in the drought treatment than the irrigated control. Counter to expectations| the drought treatment caused a larger reduction in canopy-average transpiration rates for trees in the eC(a) treatment compared with aC(a). Total tree transpiration over the dry-down was positively correlated with the decrease in soil water storage| measured in the top 1.5 m| over the drying cycle; however| we could not close the water budget especially for the larger trees| suggesting soil water uptake below 1.5 m depth. Using neutron probe soil water measurements| we estimated fractional water uptake to a depth of 4.5 m and found that larger trees were able to extract more water from deep soil layers. These results highlight the interaction between rooting depth and response of tree water use to drought. The responses of tree water use to eC(a) involve interactions between tree size| root distribution and soil moisture availability that may override the expected direct effects of eC(a). It is essential that these interactions be considered when interpreting experimental results. 12048,2011,2,4,RS and GIS in mapping of geomorphic records and understanding the local controls of glacial retreat from the Baspa Valley| Himachal Pradesh| India,We report here the role of remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) in the identification of geomorphic records and understanding of the local controls on the retreat of glaciers of the Baspa Valley| Himachal Pradesh| India. The geomorphic records mapped are accumulation zone| exposed ablation zone| moraine-covered ablation zone| snout| deglaciated valley| lateral moraine| medial moraine| terminal moraine and hanging glacier. Details of these features and stages of deglaciation have been extracted from RS data and mapped in a GIS environment. Glacial geomorphic data have been generated for 22 glaciers of the Baspa Valley. The retreat of glaciers has been estimated using the glacial maxima observed on satellite images. On the basis of percentage of retreat and the critical analysis of glacial geomorphic data for 22 glaciers of the Baspa Valley| they are classified into seven categories of very low to very very high retreat. From the analysis of the above 22 glaciers| it has been found that other than global warming| the retreat of glaciers of the Baspa Valley is inversely proportional to the size of the accumulation zone and the ratio of the moraine covered ablation/exposed ablation zone. 11724,2011,3,2,Safe storage of Co(2) together with improved oil recovery by Co(2)-enriched water injection,The 2007 IEA's World Energy Outlook report predicts that the world's energy needs will grow by 55% between 2005 and 2030| with fossil fuels accounting for 84% of this massive projected increase in energy demand. An undesired side effect of burning fossil fuels is carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emission which is now widely believed to be responsible for the problem of global warming. Various strategies are being considered for addressing the increase in demand for energy and at the same time developing technologies to make energy greener by reducing CO(2) emissions. One of these strategies is to 'capture' produced CO(2) instead of releasing it into the atmosphere. Capturing CO(2) and its injection in oil reservoirs can lead to improved oil recovery as well as CO(2) retention and storage in these reservoirs. The technology is referred to as CCS (carbon capture and storage). Large point sources of CO(2) (e.g.| coal-fired power plants) are particularly good candidates for capturing large volumes of CO(2). However| CO(2) capture from power plants is currently very expensive. In addition to high costs of CO(2) capture| the very low pressure of the flue gas (1 atm) and its low CO2 content (typically 10-15%) contribute to the high cost of CO(2) capture from power plants and the subsequent compression. This makes conventional CO(2) flooding (which requires very large volumes of CO(2)) uneconomical in many oil reservoirs around the world which would otherwise be suitable candidates for CO(2) injection. Alternative strategies are therefore needed to utilize smaller sources of CO(2) that are usually available around oil and gas fields and can be captured at lower costs (due to their higher pressure and higher CO(2) concentration). We investigate the potential of carbonated (CO(2)-enriched) water injection (CWI) as an injection strategy for improving recovery from oil reservoirs with the added benefit of safe storage of CO(2). The performance of CWI was investigated by conducting high-pressure flow visualization as well as coreflood experiments at reservoir conditions. The results show that CWI significantly improves oil recovery from water flooded porous media. A relatively large fraction of the injected CO(2) was retained (stored) in the porous medium in the form of dissolved CO(2) in water and oil. The results clearly demonstrate the huge potential of CWI as a productive way of utilizing CO(2) for improving oil recovery and safe storage of potentially large cumulative quantities of CO(2). (C) 2011 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12470,2011,4,4,Saharan desert dust radiative effects: a study based on atmospheric modelling,This work investigates the Saharan desert storms direct effect| through the assessment of regional-scale Desert Dust (DD) aerosol Radiative Forcing (RF). Simulated parameters| obtained from atmospheric modelling| are used. The effect over different surfaces on the dust RF is analysed and the stratospheric ozone is considered. In the presence of DD aerosols| a shortwave cooling and a longwave warming effects are found both at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface. The underlying surface seems to interfere in the aerosol RF and the total ozone column changes have small impact on the dust RF at the surface. 11810,2011,2,4,Sahel rainfall and decadal to multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability,Decadal Sahelian rainfall variability was mainly driven by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the twentieth century. At the same time SSTs showed a marked long-term global warming (GW) trend. Superimposed on this long-term trend decadal and multi-decadal variability patterns are observed like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Using an atmospheric general circulation model we investigate the relative contribution of each component to the Sahelian precipitation variability. To take into account the uncertainty related to the use of different SST data sets| we perform the experiments using HadISST1 and ERSSTv3 reconstructed sets. The simulations show that all three SST signals have a significant impact over West Africa: the positive phases of the GW and the IPO lead to drought over the Sahel| while a positive AMO enhances Sahel rainfall. The tropical SST warming is the main cause for the GW impact on Sahel rainfall. Regarding the AMO| the pattern of anomalous precipitation is established by the SSTs in the Atlantic and Mediterranean basins. In turn| the tropical SST anomalies control the impact of the IPO component on West Africa. Our results suggest that the low-frequency evolution of Sahel rainfall can be interpreted as the competition of three factors: the effect of the GW| the AMO and the IPO. Following this interpretation| our results show that 50% of the SST-driven Sahel drought in the 1980s is explained by the change to a negative phase of the AMO| and that the GW contribution was 10%. In addition| the partial recovery of Sahel rainfall in recent years was mainly driven by the AMO. 12515,2011,2,4,SALINISATION IN BULGARIA: INSTITUTIONAL SETTINGS FOR SOIL CONSERVATION (A CASE STUDY OF BELOZEM VILLAGE),Soil salinisation is one of the major soil degradation problems for Southern European countries and global warming is expected to increase the threat of secondary salinisation. This paper investigates salinisation in the village of Belozem| Bulgaria. The central argument is that the technical solutions and policy measures need to be backed up by appropriate institutional settings. This paper focuses on the natural and institutional factors involved. Further| it examines the causes driving the current salinisation process in this village. It is based on data collected by means of interviews with local people| and analysis of the existing farming practices and policy. The paper concludes that the new institutional settings do not support the technical decisions implemented in the past| and the implementation of possible new technical measures. The findings of this paper could provide lessons for land conservation policy that may apply beyond the case study region. The implementations of technical solutions need to be supported by appropriate institutions. The formal legislation and the incentive measures might not have the desired impact if cooperation among all participants is not sufficient or if farmers are discouraged from applying because of difficult application procedures. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 12809,2011,4,4,Sampling errors of the global mean sea level derived from TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry,Sampling errors of the global mean sea level derived from TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) altimetry are explored using 3 1/4 a of eddy-resolving numerical model outputs for sea level. By definition| the sampling errors would not exist if data were available everywhere at all times. Four problems with increasing and progressively added complexities are examined to understand the causes of the sampling errors. The first problem (P1) explores the error incurred because T/P with turning latitudes near 66 degrees latitudes does not cover the entire globe. The second problem (P2) examines| in addition| the spatial sampling issue because samples are only available along T/P ground tracks. The third problem (P3) adds the additional complexity that sea level at any along track location is sampled only once every 10 d versus every 3 d for the model (i.e.| the temporal sampling issue). The fourth problem (P4) incorporates the full complexity with the addition of real T/P data outages. The numerical model (Los Alamos POP model Run 11) conserves the total water volume| thus generating no global mean sea level variation. Yet when the model sea level is sampled in the four problems (with P4 using the real T/P sampling)| variations occur as manifestations of the sampling errors. The results show root-mean-squares (rms) sampling errors for P1 of 0.67 (0.75) mm for 10 d (3 d) global mean sea level| 0.78 (0.86) mm for P2| 0.79 mm for P3| and 1.07 mm for P4| whereas the amplitudes of the sampling errors can be as large as 2.0 (2.7) mm for P1| 2.1 (2.7) mm for P2| 2.2 mm for P3| and 2.5 mm for P4. The results clearly show the largest source of the sampling errors to be the lack of global coverage (i.e.| P1)| which the model has actually underestimated due to its own less-than-global coverage (between latitudes about 77 degrees latitudes). We have extrapolated that a truly global model would show the rms sampling error to be 1.14 (1.28) mm for P1| thus implying a substantially larger sampling error for P4. 3385,2011,4,4,Satellite-Observed Surface Temperature Changes after the 2004 Taylor Complex Fire in Alaska,Land-use and land-cover change has been recognized as a key component in global climate change. In the boreal forest ecosystem| fires often cause significant changes in vegetation structure and surface biophysical characteristics| which in turn dramatically change energy and water balances of land surface. Several studies have characterized fire-induced changes in surface energy balance in boreal ecosystem based on site observations. This study provides satellite-observed impacts of a large fire on surface climate in Alaska's boreal forest. A land surface temperature (LST) product from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is used as the primary data. Five years after fire| surface temperature over the burned area increased by an average of 2.0 degrees C in the May-August period. The increase reached a maximum of 3.2 degrees C in the year immediately following the fire. The warm anomaly decreased slightly after the second year but remained until the fifth year of the study. These changes in surface temperature may directly affect surface net radiation and thus partition of surface available energy. By documenting continuous and synoptic surface temperature changes over multiple years| this paper demonstrates the value of Earth Observing System (EOS) observations for land-climate interaction research. The observed characteristics of surface temperature change as well as changes in key surface biophysical parameters such as albedo and leaf area index (LAI) can be used in the next generation of climate models to improve the representation of large-scale ecosystem disturbances. 12082,2011,3,4,Saturated Pressure Measurements of 2|3|3|3-Tetrafluoroprop-1-ene (R1234yf) for Reduced Temperatures Ranging from 0.67 to 0.93,2|3|3|3-Tetrafluoroprop-1-ene (R1234yf) is one of the most promising alternative refrigerants because of its low global warming potential and a vapor pressure similar to 1|1|1|2-tetrafluoroethane (R134a). At present| its measured thermodynamic properties are scarce. Herein| vapor pressure data measurements and corresponding correlations are discussed. In particular| 40 vapor pressure measurements in the temperature range between (245.65 and 343.15) K were obtained| and these results| together with available literature data| were regressed using Wagner-type and extended Antoine-type equations. The normal boiling temperature for R1234yf was calculated to be 243.71 K. 11704,2011,3,3,Sawah ecotechnology - a trigger for a rice green revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa Basic concept and policy implications,The green revolution has yet to be realized in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) even 40 years after its success in tropical Asia| suggesting that there was a missing element in the basic principles underlying the Asian green revolution when they were transferred to SSA. The authors argue that this missing element is 'ecotechnology'. Ecotechnology improves the crop growing environment in farmers' fields and enables them to accommodate basic green revolution technologies such as modern varieties| chemical fertilizers and irrigation facilities. The authors focus on sawah ecotechnology| a sustainable rice production technology. The term 'sawah' refers to a levelled| bunded and puddled rice field under controlled submergence| and 'sawah ecotechnology' indicates the technology for designing| developing and managing the sawah system. The sawah system development potential is at least 20 million ha in the West Africa (WA) subregion only. Realizing this potential| WA can sustainably produce food for more than 300 million people| as well as enabling the conservation and restoration of hundreds of millions of hectares of upland forests| contributing to carbon sequestration and global warming mitigation in the future. 12366,2011,2,2,Scenarios with MIT integrated global systems model: significant global warming regardless of different approaches,A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations| sea level rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melt| oceanic acidity| and global mean temperature increases computed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) using scenarios for twenty-first century emissions developed by three different groups: intergovernmental (represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)| government (represented by the U.S. government Climate Change Science Program) and industry (represented by Royal Dutch Shell plc). In all these scenarios the climate system undergoes substantial changes. By 2100| the CO(2) concentration ranges from 470 to 1020 ppm compared to a 2000 level of 365 ppm| the CO(2)-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases ranges from 550 to 1780 ppm in comparison to a 2000 level of 415 ppm| oceanic acidity changes from a current pH of around 8 to a range from 7.63 to 7.91| in comparison to a pH change from a preindustrial level by 0.1 unit. The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0A degrees C relative to 2000. Such increases will require considerable adaptation of many human systems and will leave some aspects of the earth's environment irreversibly changed. Thus| the remarkable aspect of these different approaches to scenario development is not the differences in detail and philosophy but rather the similar picture they paint of a world at risk from climate change even if there is substantial effort to reduce emissions. 12517,2011,2,4,Scientific results regarding the gene(s) introgression of drought-resistance to Helianthus annuus species| using Embryo rescue,NARDI Fundulea has obtained an invaluable genetic basis during over 50 years of research| being considered as main Romanian institution producing sunflower parental lines and hybrids (Pacureanu & al. [1]). Taking into account the climatic changes and current requirements at European level| the improvement of the drought resistance for sunflower hybrids is one of the main objectives in the sunflower breeding program. In order to improve drought resistance of sunflower in the context of the global warming and to accelerate this improvement. introgression of resistance genes from wild species (Helianthus argophyllus) was attempted using embryo rescue techniques| combined with classical procedures to improve crossing| self-pollination and backcrossing (BC). Four cultivated sunflower lines (LC I039B; LC1099C; LC 1010B; LC 1066C) presented a high compatibility with the wild species when Helianthus annuus was used as female parent and Helianthus argophyllus as male parent. In crosses between Helianthus argophyllus and Helianthus annuus| the absence of compatibility was registered for: H. argophyllus x LC1050B; H. argophyllus x LC1093B; and H. argophyllus x LC0305C. Generally the hybridization compatibility degree expressed as achenes/head was not correlated with the response to embryo culture. The results represent an opportunity for the acceleration of sunflower breeding for drought resistance and for increasing biodiversity in the global warming conditions.
11760,2011,3,3,Screening life cycle assessment of an office used for academic purposes,The aim of this study is to contribute to the analysis of the environmental impacts deriving from common aspects of the service sector activity and to identify auxiliary actions and hot spots in order to improve the environmental performance of offices used for educational purposes. In that aspect| a screening life cycle assessment (LCA) for a university office-workstation of Democritus University of Thrace| Greece| was performed with the application of the SimaPro LCA software| and the Impact 2002+ method with fifteen impact categories for the interpretation of results. Findings from this research indicated that energy consumption for the powering electronic appliances was the key factor affecting most of the environmental impact categories examined. The impact categories most seriously affected by the office life cycle were the emissions of respiratory inorganics (39%)| global warming (31%) and non-renewable energy use (27%). The saving of the energy consumed due to standby mode could lead to a reduction of 2.4% of the total energy consumption in the office in a yearly basis with proportional positive influence in all the respective impact categories. Additionally| utilization of solar energy through photovoltaic panels could lead to a reduction close to 90% for a number of impact categories. Therefore| actions and strategies for improving the environmental performance of academic offices should focus on the reduction of energy consumption. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11718,2011,2,4,Screening the USDA Watermelon Germplasm Collection for Drought Tolerance at the Seedling Stage,Because of the growing threat of global warming| drought stress could severely affect the normal growth and development of crop plants. To alleviate such an adverse effect| there is a need to screen watermelon germplasm collections to identify genetic sources for potential drought tolerance. In the present study| 820 accessions of USDA's Citrullus PIs and 246 watermelon breeding lines were evaluated for their drought tolerance at the seedling stage under extreme water stress conditions in a greenhouse. Significant variations in drought tolerance were observed in the Citrullus germplasm collections. Using fast clustering analysis| the tested watermelon materials could be assigned into four groups| including tolerant| intermediate tolerant| moderately sensitive| and sensitive| respectively. The most drought-tolerant Citrullus germplasm| including 13 Citrullus lanatus var. lanatus and 12 C. lanatus var. citroides accessions| were originated from Africa. These genetic materials could be used for rootstock breeding or for developing drought-tolerant watermelon cultivars.
12615,2011,4,4,Sea-Land Limits: a case study,The limits between sea and land were estimated at "Pulso" beach located in the Southeastern Brazilian shelf (phi =23 degrees 33'17.4886 '' S;. lambda=045 degrees 13'13.0504 '' W - WGS84)| between the island of Sao Sebastiao and the city of Ubatuba| SP| Brazil. The relative sea level of the year 1831 at "Pulso" beach| as per Brazilian law Number 9760 dated from 1946| was estimated and materialized. The retro-estimation allowed the demarcation of the Legal Sea-Land Limits at "Pulso" beach as per the terms of the law. The accuracy of the procedure for the transference of the long-term sea level from the research station of Ubatuba to "Pulso" beach was assessed by parallel work of geometrical leveling referred to the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) geodetic network. The motivation| the hypotheses (Brest| Cananeia and IPCC) and the methods here used are described| together with a short history of the Legal Sea-Land Limits. The results indicated that the legal Sea-Land Limits at "Pulso" beach are well within the beach area. They were determined as per law 9760| and there is the need to reactivate the national network of sea level gauge. 3331,2011,2,4,Sea-Level Acceleration Based on US Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses,HOUSTON| J.R. and DEAN| R.G.| 2011. Sea-level acceleration based on U.S. tide gauges and extensions of previous global-gauge analyses. Journal of Coastal Research| 27(3)| 409-417. West Palm Beach (Florida)| ISSN 0749-0208. Without sea-level acceleration| the 20th-century sea-level trend of 1.7 mm/y would produce a rise of only approximately 0.15 m from 2010 to 2100; therefore| sea-level acceleration is a critical component of projected sea-level rise. To determine this acceleration| we analyze monthly-averaged records for 57 U.S. tide gauges in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) data base that have lengths of 60-156 years. Least-squares quadratic analysis of each of the 57 records are performed to quantify accelerations| and 25 gauge records having data spanning from 1930 to 2010 are analyzed. In both cases we obtain small average sea-level decelerations. To compare these results with worldwide data| we extend the analysis of Douglas (1992) by an additional 25 years and analyze revised data of Church and White (2006) from 1930 to 2007 and also obtain small sea-level decelerations similar to those we obtain from U.S. gauge records. 12003,2011,2,4,Seasonal and Annual Trends of Temperature and Precipitation within 1951/1971-2007 in South-Eastern Styria| Austria,This work investigates seasonal and annual trends of temperature and precipitation from 1951/1971 to 2007 in the south-eastern part of Styria| Austria. Linear trends are calculated by least squares regression and analyzed for single station records and two different area-average time series. The focus area is represented by a regional mean and the two single stations Bad Gleichenberg and Gleisdorf. The regional mean over the focus area is calculated on the basis of seventeen stations in total previously tested by the standard normal homogeneity test. Changes in south-eastern Styria are compared with the urban station Graz University and with trends on a larger scale by the supra-regional mean over a greater territory north-east of the Alpine crest. In addition| some information regarding the sensitivity of linear trends is briefly discussed. The results reflect the warming in the 20(th) century and its acceleration since the 1950s and| in particular| since the 1970s. In the period from 1971 to 2007| significant trends are detected on annual and seasonal scales| except for winter temperatures. Similar trends are observed in spring and autumn (similar to 1.8 degrees C) but the maximum increase occured in summer (similar to 2.5 degrees C). For precipitation| annual data as well as the summer and winter seasons show a decreasing tendency from 1951 to 2007 and from 1971 to 2007. Although spring and autumn conditions are characterized by a much higher spatial variability| the regional mean over the focus area indicates an increase from 1971 to 2007. The findings of the present study illustrate south-eastern Styria as a region of high sensitivity to global warming. In particular since the 1970s| the changes in temperature and precipitation are an enhanced reflection of the large-scale trends. 12765,2011,2,4,SEASONAL OCCURRENCES OF HUMBOLDT SQUID (DOSIDICUS GIGAS) IN THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM,Recent visits by Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas) to the northern California Current system (CCS) were suggested to be related to larger climatic events such as El Nino| global warming| and expansion and shoaling of the oxygen minimum zone. Due to their plasticity in foraging behavior| coupled with an increased availability of prey resources| these excursions may also represent opportunistic foraging explorations. Fisheries-independent surveys initiated by the Northwest Fisheries Science Center in 1998 first encountered Humboldt squid in coastal waters off central Oregon and Washington in 2004. Squid ranging from 36-79 cm mantle length were caught during the following six years of sampling (2004-2009)| with individuals generally increasing in abundance shoreward in late summer. The highest observed densities were in 2009 and measured 1|671 squid (10(6) m(3))(-1). Physical features associated with increased squid catch included station depth| subsurface water temperature| ocean salinity| ocean density| and dissolved oxygen. In addition| the arrival of Humboldt squid onto the shelf in late summer was coincident with declines of juvenile (10-30 cm total length) Pacific hake (Merluccius productus)| in contrast to the typical increases of hake recorded in late summer during recent years. Our results suggest that predator-prey interactions and ocean conditions in the CCS epipelagic zone lead to seasonal expansions| yet unsuccessful colonization attempts| by Humboldt squid populations. Identifying the economic and ecological impacts of this newly arrived predator should be a top research priority. 3361,2011,2,4,Seasonal variation and meteorological control of CO(2) flux in a hilly plantation in the mountain areas of North China,The carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems is an important scientific issue in global climate change research. Plantation forest plays an important role in terrestrial carbon budget in China. In this study| eddy covariance flux data measured at Xiaolangdi forest ecosystem research station (XLD) in 2007 and 2008 are used to analyze the seasonal variation and meteorological control of CO(2) flux in a 30-yr-old mixed plantation. The plantation forest mainly consists of Quercus variabilis| Platycladus orientalis| and Robinia pseudoacacia. The results show that the seasonal variations of net ecosystem exchange of CO(2) (NEE)| gross primary production (GPP)| and ecosystem respiration (R (e)) display single-peak curves. The maximum of carbon sequestration appears during May and June each year. The relative contribution of carbon release from ecosystem respiration to GPP varied slightly between 2007 and 2008. The relationship between NEE and photosynthetic active radiation (Q (p)) accords with the rectangular hyperbola model on diurnal scale| and shows a good linear correlation on monthly scale. The ecosystem photosynthetic parameters: the maximum photosynthetic rate (P (max))| the ecosystem photosynthetic photonyield (alpha)| and the daytime ecosystem respiration (R (d)) exhibit seasonal variations. P (max) reaches the maximum in August each year| with small interannual difference. The interannual differences of alpha and R (d) are obvious| which is attributed to the changes of meteorological factors| such as solar radiation| vapor pressure deficit (D)| precipitation| etc. Parameters R (e)| GPP| and NEP (net ecosystem production) have obvious exponential relations with temperature on monthly scale. There is a hysteresis in the response of GPP and NEP to temperature| i.e.| the carbon sequestration is not the maximum when the temperature reaches the peak value. The Q (10) values were 1.37 and 1.45 in 2007 and 2008| respectively. On monthly scale| R (e)| GPP| and NEE increase as D increases| but rise slowly and even decrease when D is higher than 1.5 kPa. 12582,2011,3,3,Seasonal variation in nitrous oxide and methane emissions from subtropical estuary and coastal mangrove sediments| Australia,Mangrove sediments can act as sources of the greenhouse trace gases| nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and methane (CH(4)). Confident reporting of trace gas emissions from mangrove sediments at local levels is important for regional emissions inventories| since small changes in N(2)O and CH(4) fluxes greatly influence greenhouse gas budgets due to their high global warming potentials. It is also important to identify the drivers of trace gas emission| to prioritise management for minimising emissions. We measured N(2)O and CH(4) fluxes and abiotic sediment parameters at midday low tide in winter and summer seasons| at four sites (27 degrees 33'S| 152 degrees 59'E) ranging from estuary to ocean sub-tropical mangrove sediments| having varied anthropogenic impacts. At all sites| sediment N(2)O and CH(4) emissions were significantly lower during winter (7-26 mu g N(2)O m-2 center dot h-1; 47-466 mu g CH(4) m-2 center dot h-1) compared to summer (28-202 mu g N(2)O m-2 center dot h-1; 247-1570 mu g CH(4) m-2 center dot h-1). Sediment temperature| ranging from 18 to 33 degrees C| strongly influenced N(2)O and CH(4) emissions. Highest emissions (202 mu g N(2)O m-2 center dot h-1| 1570 mu g CH(4) m-2 center dot h-1) were detected at human-impacted estuary sites| which generally had higher total carbon (< 8%) and total nitrogen (< 0.4%) in sediments and reduced salinity (< 16 dS center dot m-1). Large between-site variation highlights the need for regular monitoring of sub-tropical mangroves to capture short-lived| episodic N(2)O and CH(4) flux events that are affected by sediment biophysico-chemical conditions at site level. This is important| particularly at sites receiving anthropogenic nutrients| and that have variable freshwater inputs and tidal hydrology. 12589,2011,2,4,Seasonal variation in plasma thyroid hormone concentrations in coastal versus inland populations of juvenile American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis): Influence of plasma iodide concentrations,Thyroid hormones| essential for normal growth and health| are associated with changes in temperature| photoperiod| and reproduction. Iodide| a necessary element for thyroid hormone production| varies in diet| and is more abundant in estuarine environments| which could alter thyroid hormone variation. However| associations between thyroid hormone concentrations in animals from marine versus freshwater environments| which could become more pertinent with rising sea levels associated with global climate change| are not well studied. To determine the importance of dietary iodide in seasonal variation of plasma thyroid hormone concentrations| we analyzed seasonal variation of plasma thyroxine (T(4)) and triiodothyronine (T(3)) concentrations in juvenile alligators from an estuarine habitat (Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge; MI) and a freshwater habitat (Lake Woodruff National Wildlife Refuge; LW) and compared these results to plasma inorganic iodide (PII) concentrations. Alligators from MI did not display seasonal variation in plasma T(4)| but exhibited a seasonal pattern in plasma T(3) concentrations similar to alligators from LW. Plasma thyroid hormone concentrations were consistently higher at MI than at LW. PII concentrations were correlated with plasma T(4) and T(3) concentrations in juvenile alligators from LW but not MI. The data on plasma T(4) and T(3) concentrations suggest altered iodide metabolism in estuarine alligators. Differences in thyroid hormone concentrations between the populations could be due to differences in dietary iodide| which need to be further evaluated. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 11801,2011,2,4,Seasonal Variation of Surface Temperature Change during the Last Several Decades,Using the historical surface temperature dataset compiled by Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the Hadley Centre of the United Kingdom| this study examines the seasonal and latitudinal profile of the surface temperature change observed during the last several decades. It reveals that the recent change in zonal-mean surface air temperature is positive at practically all latitudes. In the Northern Hemisphere| the warming increases with increasing latitude and is large in the Arctic Ocean during much of the year except in summer| when it is small. At the Antarctic coast and in the northern part of the circumpolar ocean (near 55 degrees S)| where limited data are available| the changes appear to be small during most seasons| though the warming is notable at the coast in winter. However| this warming is much less than the warming over the Arctic Ocean. The seasonal variation of the surface temperature change appears to be broadly consistent with the result from a global warming experiment that was conducted some time ago using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model. 3161,2011,2,4,Seaweed Communities in Retreat from Ocean Warming,In recent decades| global climate change [1] has caused profound biological changes across the planet [2-6]. However| there is a great disparity in the strength of evidence among different ecosystems and between hemispheres: changes on land have been well documented through long-term studies| but similar direct evidence for impacts of warming is virtually absent from the oceans [3| 7]| where only a few studies on individual species of intertidal invertebrates| plankton| and commercially important fish in the North Atlantic and North Pacific exist. This disparity of evidence is precarious for biological conservation because of the critical role of the marine realm in regulating the Earth's environmental and ecological functions| and the associated socioeconomic well-being of humans [8]. We interrogated a database of >20|000 herbarium records of macroalgae collected in Australia since the 1940s and documented changes in communities and geographical distribution limits in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans| consistent with rapid warming over the past five decades [9| 10]. We show that continued warming might drive potentially hundreds of species toward and beyond the edge of the Australian continent where sustained retreat is impossible. The potential for global extinctions is profound considering the many endemic seaweeds and seaweed-dependent marine organisms in temperate Australia. 12769,2011,4,3,Second California Assessment: integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems.,Since 2006 the scientific community in California| in cooperation with resource managers| has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32)| these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level| helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments| some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012| are offered. 12458,2011,4,6,Second thoughts on global warming,Purpose - The widely accepted view that global warming is man-made and largely due to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been disputed in a powerful and closely argued "critique" reviewed here| including some retraction by James Lovelock. Attention is drawn to a new online video on the life and contributions of the economist Adam Smith| and to development of the smallest-ever diamond transistor. The death of the experimental psychologist Richard Gregory is reported. Design/methodology/approach - The aim is to review developments on the internet| especially those of general cybernetic interest. Findings - The main finding is that currently accepted views of anthropomorphic global warming are subject to serious doubt. Practical implications - It seems likely that the "greenhouse" effect of carbon dioxide can be discounted| allowing major revisions of energy policy and increased exploitation of fossil fuel resources| though with attention also to renewable sources that will be needed when the fossil fuels run out. The diamond transistor will eventually allow increase in speed in digital devices. Originality/value - It is hoped this is a valuable periodic review.
11814,2011,3,2,Sectoral CO(2)| CH(4)| N(2)O and SO(2) emissions from fossil fuel consumption in Nagpur City of Central India,Emission inventory of CO(2)| CH(4)| N(2)O and SO(2) has been prepared for Nagpur city in Central India for the year 2004. Data on fossil fuel (coal| light diesel oil| high speed diesel| petrol/gasoline| low sulphur heavy stock| furnace oil and kerosene) consumption in thermal power| industrial| transport and domestic sectors were collected. Thermal power sector had the maximum coal consumption followed by the industrial and domestic sectors| whereas kerosene| liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)| diesel and gasoline were used only in any single sector. Total annual CO(2)| CH(4)| N(2)O and SO(2) emissions from these fuels in Nagpur city for the year 2004 was found to be 14792418 MT (14.8 Tg)| 4649 (4.6 Tg)| 1529 (1.5 Tg) and 69093 (6.9 Tg)| respectively| in which thermal power and domestic sector had the maximum share. Coal was found to be the major contributor to Green House Gas (GHG) and SO(2) emissions in all the sectors barring transport and domestic sectors. Carbon dioxide was the predominant GHG emitted by the selected sectors in terms of absolute emissions and also global warming contribution (GWC)| though the share in the latter was lesser in magnitude due to higher global warming potential (GWP) of CH(4) and N(2)O than CO(2). Thermal power sector had a share of 51% in total CO(2) emissions from all the sectors| followed by domestic| industrial and transport sectors having 27| 12 and 10% contributions| respectively. Share of thermal power sector in total SO(2) emissions was 61%| followed by 24% from industrial| 10% from domestic and 5% from transport sector. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12222,2011,4,4,Sediment flux and the Anthropocene,Data and computer simulations are reviewed to help better define the timing and magnitude of human influence on sediment flux-the Anthropocene epoch. Impacts on the Earth surface processes are not spatially or temporally homogeneous. Human influences on this sediment flux have a secondary effect on floodplain and delta-plain functions and sediment dispersal into the coastal ocean. Human impact on sediment production began 3000 years ago but accelerated more widely 1000 years ago. By the sixteenth century| societies were already engineering their environment. Early twentieth century mechanization has led to global signals of increased sediment flux in most large rivers. By the 1950s| this sediment disturbance signal reversed for many rivers owing to the proliferation of dams| and sediment load reduction below pristine conditions is the dominant signal today. A delta subsidence signal began in the 1930s and is now a dominant signal in terms of sea level for many coastal environments| overwhelming even the global warming imprint on sea level. Humans have engineered how most water and sediment are discharged into the coastal ocean. Hyperpycnal flow events have become more common for some rivers| and less common for other rivers. Bottom trawling is now widespread| suggesting that even continental shelves have received a significant but as yet quantified Anthropocene impact. The Anthropocene attains the level of a geological climate event| such as that seen in the transition between the Pleistocene and the Holocene. 12360,2011,4,2,Seismological Identification and Characterization of a Large Hurricane,Much debate within the weather| climate| disaster mitigation| and insurance communities centers on whether rising sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean due to anthropogenic global warming are resulting in discernible trends in hurricane frequency or energy. However| some of the apparent increase in hurricane frequency may be due to the recent availability of aircraft-and satellite-based observations. A possible approach to this issue is via microseisms| seismic signals traditionally thought of as noise because they are not generated by earthquakes. These surface waves generated by ocean storms are detected even in continental interiors far from source regions. Here we show that the August 1992 Saffir/Simpson category 5 Hurricane Andrew can be detected using microseisms recorded at the Harvard| Massachusetts| seismic station even while the storm is as far as similar to 2000 km away and still at sea. When applied to decades of existing analog seismograms| this methodology could yield a seismically identified hurricane record for comparison to the pre-aircraft and pre-satellite observational record. 11906,2011,2,4,Selection on flowering time in Mediterranean high-mountain plants under global warming,Under climate warming| plants will undergo novel selective pressures to adjust reproductive timing. Adjustment between reproductive phenology and environment is expected to be higher in arctic and alpine habitats because the growing season is considerably short. As early- and late-flowering species reproduce under very different environmental conditions| selective pressures on flowering phenology and potential effects of climate change are likely to differ between them. However| there is no agreement on the magnitude of the benefits and costs of early- vs. late-flowering species under a global warming scenario. In spite of its relevance| phenotypic selection on flowering phenology has rarely been explored in alpine plants and never in Mediterranean high mountain species| where selective pressures are very different due to the summer drought imposed over the short growth season. We hypothesized that late-flowering plants in Mediterranean mountains should present stronger selective pressures towards early onset of reproduction than early-flowering species| because less water is available in the soil as growing season progresses. We performed selection analyses on flowering onset and duration in two high mountain species of contrasting phenology. Since phenotypic selection can be highly context-dependent| we studied several populations of each species for 2 years| covering their local altitudinal ranges and their different microhabitats. Surrogates of biotic selective agents| like fruitset for pollinators and flower and fruit loss for flower and seed predators| were included in the analysis. Differences between the early- and the late-flowering species were less than expected. A consistent negative correlational selection of flowering onset and duration was found affecting plant fitness| i.e.| plants that bloomed earlier flowered for longer periods improving plant fitness. Nevertheless| the late-flowering species may experience higher risks under climate warming because in extremely warm and dry years the earlier season does not bring about a longer flowering duration due to summer drought. 11692,2011,4,2,Self-enforcing strategies to deter free-riding in the climate change mitigation game and other repeated public good games,As the Copenhagen Accord indicates| most of the international community agrees that global mean temperature should not be allowed to rise more than two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels to avoid unacceptable damages from climate change. The scientific evidence distilled in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and recent reports by the US National Academies shows that this can only be achieved by vast reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Still| international cooperation on greenhouse gas emissions reductions suffers from incentives to free-ride and to renegotiate agreements in case of noncompliance| and the same is true for other so-called "public good games." Using game theory| we show how one might overcome these problems with a simple dynamic strategy of linear compensation when the parameters of the problem fulfill some general conditions and players can be considered to be sufficiently rational. The proposed strategy redistributes liabilities according to past compliance levels in a proportionate and timely way. It can be used to implement any given allocation of target contributions| and we prove that it has several strong stability properties. 3177,2011,4,4,Sensitivity of Anopheles gambiae population dynamics to meteo-hydrological variability: a mechanistic approach,Background: Mechanistic models play an important role in many biological disciplines| and they can effectively contribute to evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of mosquito populations| in the light of the increasing knowledge of the crucial driving role on vector dynamics played by meteo-climatic features as well as other physical-biological characteristics of the landscape. Methods: In malaria eco-epidemiology landscape components (atmosphere| water bodies| land use) interact with the epidemiological system (interacting populations of vector| human| and parasite). In the background of the eco-epidemiological approach| a mosquito population model is here proposed to evaluate the sensitivity of An. gambiae s.s. population to some peculiar thermal-pluviometric scenarios. The scenarios are obtained perturbing meteorological time series data referred to four Kenyan sites (Nairobi| Nyabondo| Kibwesi| and Malindi) representing four different eco-epidemiological settings. Results: Simulations highlight a strong dependence of mosquito population abundance on temperature variation with well-defined site-specific patterns. The upper extreme of thermal perturbation interval (+ 3 degrees C) gives rise to an increase in adult population abundance at Nairobi (+111%) and Nyabondo (+61%)| and a decrease at Kibwezi (-2%) and Malindi (-36%). At the lower extreme perturbation (-3 degrees C) is observed a reduction in both immature and adult mosquito population in three sites (Nairobi -74%| Nyabondo -66%| Kibwezi -39%)| and an increase in Malindi (+11%). A coherent non-linear pattern of population variation emerges. The maximum rate of variation is +30% population abundance for + 1 C of temperature change| but also almost null and negative values are obtained. Mosquitoes are less sensitive to rainfall and both adults and immature populations display a positive quasi-linear response pattern to rainfall variation. Conclusions: The non-linear temperature-dependent response is in agreement with the non-linear patterns of temperature-response of the basic bio-demographic processes. This non-linearity makes the hypothesized biological amplification of temperature effects valid only for a limited range of temperatures. As a consequence| no simple extrapolations can be done linking temperature rise with increase in mosquito distribution and abundance| and projections of An. gambiae s.s. populations should be produced only in the light of the local meteo-climatic features as well as other physical and biological characteristics of the landscape. 12423,2011,4,3,Sensitivity of atmospheric CO(2) and climate to explosive volcanic eruptions,Impacts of low-latitude| explosive volcanic eruptions on climate and the carbon cycle are quantified by forcing a comprehensive| fully coupled carbon cycle-climate model with pulse-like stratospheric aerosol optical depth changes. The model represents the radiative and dynamical response of the climate system to volcanic eruptions and simulates a decrease of global and regional atmospheric surface temperature| regionally distinct changes in precipitation| a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation| and a decrease in atmospheric CO(2) after volcanic eruptions. The volcanic-induced cooling reduces overturning rates in tropical soils| which dominates over reduced litter input due to soil moisture decrease| resulting in higher land carbon inventories for several decades. The perturbation in the ocean carbon inventory changes sign from an initial weak carbon sink to a carbon source. Positive carbon and negative temperature anomalies in subsurface waters last up to several decades. The multi-decadal decrease in atmospheric CO(2) yields a small additional radiative forcing that amplifies the cooling and perturbs the Earth System on longer time scales than the atmospheric residence time of volcanic aerosols. In addition| century-scale global warming simulations with and without volcanic eruptions over the historical period show that the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds for different physical and biogeochemical parameters such as steric sea level or dissolved oxygen. Results from a suite of sensitivity simulations with different magnitudes of stratospheric aerosol optical depth changes and from global warming simulations show that the carbon cycle-climate sensitivity gamma| expressed as change in atmospheric CO(2) per unit change in global mean surface temperature| depends on the magnitude and temporal evolution of the perturbation| and time scale of interest. On decadal time scales| modeled gamma is several times larger for a Pinatubo-like eruption than for the industrial period and for a high emission| 21st century scenario. 3438,2011,2,3,Sensitivity of nocturnal boundary layer temperature to tropospheric aerosol surface radiative forcing under clear-sky conditions,Since the middle of the last century| global surface air temperature exhibits an increasing trend| with nocturnal temperatures increasing at a much higher rate. Proposed causative mechanisms include the radiative impact of atmospheric aerosols on the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) where the temperature response is amplified due to shallow depth and its sensitivity to potential destabilization. A 1-D version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System is used to examine the sensitivity of the nocturnal boundary layer temperature to the surface longwave radiative forcing (SLWRF) from urban aerosol loading and doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The analysis is conducted for typical midlatitude nocturnal boundary layer case days from the CASES-99 field experiment and is further extended to urban sites in Pune and New Delhi| India. For the cases studied| locally| the nocturnal SLWRF from urban atmospheric aerosols (2.7-47 W m(-2)) is comparable or exceeds that caused by doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (3 W m(-2))| with the surface temperature response ranging from a compensation for daytime cooling to an increase in the nocturnal minimum temperature. The sensitivity of the NBL to radiative forcing is approximately 4 times higher compared to the daytime boundary layer. Nighttime warming or cooling may occur depending on the nature of diurnal variations in aerosol optical depth. Soil moisture also modulates the magnitude of SLWRF| decreasing from 3 to 1 W m(-2) when soil saturation increases from 37% to 70%. These results show the importance of aerosols on the radiative balance of the climate system. 3229,2011,2,4,Sensitivity of potential natural vegetation in China to projected changes in temperature| precipitation and atmospheric CO(2),A sensitivity study was performed to investigate the responses of potential natural vegetation distribution in China to the separate and combined effects of temperature| precipitation and [CO(2)]| using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME4. The model shows a generally good agreement with a map of the potential natural vegetation distribution based on a numerical comparison using the Delta V statistic (Delta V = 0.25). Mean temperature of each month was increased uniformly by 0-5 K| in 0.5- or 1-K intervals. Mean precipitation of each month was increased and decreased uniformly by 0-30%| in 10% intervals. The analyses were run at fixed CO(2) concentrations of 360 and 720 ppm. Temperature increases shifted most forest boundaries northward and westward| expanded the distribution of xeric biomes| and confined the tundra to progressively higher elevations. Precipitation increases led to a greater area occupied by mesic biomes at the expense of xeric biomes. Most vegetation types in the temperate regions| and on the Tibetan Plateau| expanded westward into the dry continental interior with increasing precipitation. Precipitation decreases had opposite effects. The modelled effect of CO(2) doubling was to partially compensate for the negative effect of drought on the mesic biomes and to increase potential ecosystem carbon storage by about 40%. Warming tended to counteract this effect| by reducing soil carbon storage. Forest biomes showed substantial resilience to climate change| especially when the effects of increasing [CO(2)] were taken into account. Savannas| dry woodland and tundra biomes proved sensitive to temperature increases. The transition region of grassland and forest| and the Tibetan plateau| was the most vulnerable region. 12210,2011,2,4,Sensitivity of simulated extent and future evolution of marine suboxia to mixing intensity,Geological and hydrographic records contain evidence of substantial past variations in the oxygenation of the global ocean. Numerical models predicts a future decrease of marine oxygen levels under global warming. Using a global biogeochemical-climate model in which diapycnal mixing is parametrised as the sum of the regionally heterogenous tidal and homogenous background vertical mixing| we here show that simulated total oceanic oxygen content and the extent of marine suboxia are both sensitive to the strength of background vertical mixing. Eight otherwise identical configurations of the model were spun up under pre-industrial conditions for different vertical diffusivities ranging from background values of 0.01 cm(2)/s to 0.5 cm(2)/s. This range corresponds to various observational estimates and to values currently used in numerical ocean circulation models. Whereas the simulated total oceanic oxygen content is larger for larger mixing intensities| the simulated suboxic volume displays a maximum at intermediate diffusivities of about 0.2 cm(2)/s. The intensity of vertical mixing also determines the evolution of suboxic areas under projected 21st century CO(2) emissions: while all model configurations predict a decline in total oceanic oxygen| the simulated extent of marine suboxia shows a 21st century expansion only for mixing rates higher than 0.2 cm(2)/s| whereas the suboxic volume declines for lower mixing rates despite an overall loss of marine oxygen. Differences in the poorly constrained mixing parameterisation can thus lead to qualitatively different estimates about the future evolution of marine suboxia under projected climate change. Citation: Duteil| O.| and A. Oschlies (2011)| Sensitivity of simulated extent and future evolution of marine suboxia to mixing intensity| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L06607| doi: 10.1029/2011GL046877. 11571,2011,4,1,Sensitivity of the attribution of near surface temperature warming to the choice of observational dataset,A number of studies have demonstrated that much of the recent warming in global near surface temperatures can be attributed to increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. While this conclusion has been shown to be robust in analyses using a variety of climate models there have not been equivalent studies using different available observational datasets. Here we repeat the analyses as reported previously using an updated observational dataset and other independently processed datasets of near surface temperatures. We conclude that the choice of observational dataset has little impact on the attribution of greenhouse gas warming and other anthropogenic cooling contributions to observed warming on a global scale over the 20th century| however this robust conclusion may not hold for other periods or for smaller subregions. Our results show that the dominant contributor to global warming over the last 50 years of the 20th century is that due to greenhouse gases. Citation: Jones| G. S.| and P. A. Stott (2011)| Sensitivity of the attribution of near surface temperature warming to the choice of observational dataset| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L21702| doi:10.1029/2011GL049324. 3174,2011,2,4,Sensitivity of the snowcover energetics in a mountain basin to variations in climate,Snow is an important natural reservoir that holds water on the landscape for release later in the season in western North America and other portions of the world. As air temperature increases with global climate change| the character of the generally established seasonal snowcover will be affected. To study the specific response to variable climate| a carefully collected and processed meteorological data set for the 1984-2008 water years (WYs) was assembled for a snow-dominated headwater mountain catchment. The data were used to force a physically based| distributed energy balance snow model to simulate patterns of snow deposition and melt over the catchment for the 25-year period. This period covers both the highest (1984) and lowest (1992) snow seasons on record and exhibits extreme inter-annual variability. This unique forcing data set captured meteorological conditions that resulted in the range of variability in snowcover accumulation| timing of ablation| and the timing and amount of surface water input (SWI)| and discharge during the 25-year study period. SWI is the amount of liquid water delivered to the soil surface from melting snow or from rain that passes through the snowcover or falls directly on the soil. Warm winters| characterized by early-and mid-winter rain| triggered earlier inputs from SWI and response in discharge than cool winters. Cool conditions prolonged the generation of SWI and streamflow out of the basin. Very wet conditions that were warm passed 50% of the SWI 27 days earlier and passed 50% of the discharge 15 days earlier| when compared to very wet conditions that were cool. Warmer conditions produced less snow water equivalent| shortened the melt season| and would be expected to extend the summer drought. Copyright. (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 11723,2011,3,2,Separation and capture of carbon dioxide from CO(2)/H(2) syngas mixture using semi-clathrate hydrates,The relation between anthropogenic emissions of CO(2) and its increased levels in the atmosphere with global warming and climate change has been well established and accepted. Major portion of carbon dioxide released to the atmosphere| originates from combustion of fossil fuels. Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) offers a promising fossil fuel technology considered as a clean coal-based process for power generation particularly if accompanied by precombustion capture. The latter includes separation of carbon dioxide from a synthesis gas mixture containing 40 mol% CO(2) and 60 mol% H(2). A novel approach for capturing CO(2) from the above gas mixture is to use gas hydrate formation. This process is based on selective partition of CO(2) between hydrate phase and gas phase and has already been studied with promising results. However high-pressure requirement for hydrate formation is a major problem. We have used semiclathrate formation from tetrabutylammonium bromide (TBAB) to experimentally investigate CO(2) capture from a mixture containing 40.2 mol% of CO(2) and 59.8 mol% of H(2). The results shows that in one stage of gas hydrate formation and dissociation| CO(2) can be enriched from 40 mol% to 86 mol% while the concentration of CO(2) in equilibrium gas phase is reduced to 18%. While separation efficiency of processes based on hydrates and semi-clathrates are comparable| the presence of TBAB improves the operating conditions significantly. Furthermore| CO(2) concentration could be increased to 96 mol% by separating CO(2) in two stages. (C) 2011 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12457,2011,3,4,Separation of SF6 from Binary Mixtures with N2 Using Commercial Poly(4-Methyl-1-Pentene) Films,Systematic studies on gas permeation of pure SF6 and N2 as well as their mixture in poly(4-methyl-1-pentene) (PMP) at different temperatures and pressures| using commercially available thin PMP films| are reported in this article. The effective separation of SF6 from binary mixtures with N2 is critical for the proposed replacement of pure SF6| used as an insulating gas in high power industry| by the mixtures of these two gases. This replacement is driven by the fact that SF6 is the most potent greenhouse gas| with a global warming potential of 22|200 times that of CO2. The experiments with a 1:1 mixture of N2 and SF6 revealed the permselectivity of PMP as high as 476 with the corresponding N2 permeability coefficient of 7.6 Barrer. These properties| which are much better than those of other glassy polymers considered for this separation| were not affected by a long-term exposure to SF6| which indicates the excellent resistance of PMP to plasticization by this gas. Using a single stage membrane system utilizing the PMP membrane would allow separating the above gas mixture into a 99% pure SF6 product with the corresponding recovery rate of SF6 greater than 99%. 3200,2011,3,4,Sequential climate change policy,Successfully managing global climate change will require a process of sequential| or iterative| decision-making| whereby policies and other decisions are revised repeatedly over multiple decades in response to changes in scientific knowledge| technological capabilities| or other conditions. Sequential decisions are required by the combined presence of long lags and uncertainty in climate and energy systems. Climate decision studies have most often examined simple cases of sequential decisions| with two decision points at fixed times and initial uncertainties that are resolved at the second decision point. Studies using this formulation initially suggested that increasing uncertainty favors stronger immediate action| while the prospect of future learning favors weaker immediate action| but subsequent work with more general formulations showed that the direction of either effect is indeterminate| depending on multiple elements of model structure and parameter values. Current issues in sequential climate decision-making include assessing responses to potential slow learning or negative learning| and examining the implications of various mechanisms by which current decision-makers may seek to influence future decisions by altering the choice sets| knowledge states| marginal costs and benefits| or default procedural requirements faced by future decision-makers. (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 744-756 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.128 11975,2011,2,4,Sequestration of Roots-derived Carbon in Paddy Soil under Elevated CO(2) with Two Temperature Regimes as Assessed by Isotope Technique,Paddy soils are considered to have a great soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration potential. The present study was conducted to estimate the amount of new C derived from rice-roots in a paddy soil under global warming with elevated CO(2) concentration ([CO(2)]) using delta(13)C technique. Roots of rice grown with elevated [CO(2)] were significantly depleted in (13)C by more than 6 parts per thousand compared to those with ambient [CO(2)]| leading to a low delta(13)C of SOC via rhizodeposition of (13)C-depleted C under elevated [CO(2)]. The net C storage derived from roots was estimated to be 0.25 and 0.31 kg m(-2) under ambient and elevated air temperature (T(air)) conditions| respectively. The greater roots-derived C under elevated T(air) than that under ambient T(air) collaborated with increased root biomass by elevated T(air). However| SOC balance analysis revealed that 0.16 and 0.21 kg m(-2) of autochthonous SOCs were decomposed under ambient and elevated T(air)| respectively| during the growth season. Therefore| elevated T(air) may enhance incorporation of new C derived from roots to SOC pool due to increased belowground biomass| but warming may also increase decomposition of old SOC by stimulating temperature-sensitive microbial activities. 12799,2011,2,4,Serosurveillance for Japanese encephalitis virus in wild birds captured in Korea,Climate change induced by recent global warming may have a significant impact on vector-borne and zoonotic diseases. For example| the distribution of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) has expanded into new regions. We surveyed the levels of hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibodies against JEV (Family Flaviviridae| genus Flavivirus) in wild birds captured in Korea. Blood samples were collected from 1|316 wild birds including the following migratory birds: Oceanodroma castro (n = 4)| Anas formosa (n = 7)| Anas penelope (n = 20)| Fulica atra (n = 30)| Anas acuta (n = 89)| Anas crecca (n = 154)| Anas platyrhynchos (n = 214)| Aix galericulata (n = 310)| and Anas poecilorhyncha (n = 488). All were captured in 16 locations in several Korea provinces between April 2007 and December 2009. Out of the 1|316 serum samples tested| 1|141 (86.7%) were positive for JEV. Wild birds captured in 2009 had a higher seroprevalence of ant-JEV antibodies than those captured in 2007. Wild birds with an HI antibody titer of 1: 1|280 or higher accounted for 21.2% (280/1|316) of the animals tested. These findings indicated that wild birds from the region examined in our study have been exposed to JEV and may pose a high risk for introducing a new JEV genotype into Korea. 3403,2011,5,4,Seven glacial cycles in the middle-late Pleistocene of northwest Europe: Geomorphic evidence from buried tunnel valleys,The deep-ocean marine isotope record and the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps record numerous glacial and interglacial cycles since the middle Pleistocene| and yet evidence for similar numbers of ice-sheet advances over the continent and shallow shelves of northwest Europe is absent. Here| we document seven generations of regionally correlatable subglacial tunnel valleys that record the geomorphic imprint of ice sheets traversing the North Sea basin between ca. 500 and 40 ka| consistent with that predicted by proxy records of glacial and interglacial climate change. Over 180 subglacial tunnel valleys that incise into Pleistocene sediments in the North Sea basin were mapped over similar to 60|000 km(2) of three-dimensional seismic-reflection data. Using a subset of these data| we identified seven separate episodes of subglacial erosion that can be correlated regionally in the UK sector of the central North Sea. The characteristics of the valley morphologies| orientations| and infill stratigraphy indicate that each set of tunnel valleys formed during a separate ice-sheet advance and retreat cycle. Stratigraphic data suggest that the tunnel valleys formed significantly later than the Brunhes-Matuyama reversal event at 780 ka and before the Last Glacial Maximum (marine isotope stage [MIS] 2; 21 ka). These results imply a more complicated glacial history for northwest Europe and more glaciations than the three-glaciation model traditionally interpreted from the terrestrial record for the past 500 k.y. Our data provide the most complete documentary evidence for repeated advance and retreat of the northwest European ice sheets since the middle Pleistocene| and for the first time indicate that terrestrial ice-sheet advances in the North Sea can be matched in number with the cold events recorded in oceanic and/or ice-core proxies of climate change over the past 500 k.y. 3305,2011,2,4,Shifting phenology and abundance under experimental warming alters trophic relationships and plant reproductive capacity,Phenological mismatches due to climate change may have important ecological consequences. In a three-year study| phenological shifts due to experimental warming markedly altered trophic relationships between plants and insect herbivores| causing a dramatic decline of reproductive capacity for one of the plant species. In a Tibetan meadow| the gentian (Gentiana formosa) typically flowers after the peak larva density of a noctuid moth (Melanchra pisi) that primarily feeds on a dominant forb (anemone| Anemone trullifolia var. linearis). However| artificial warming of similar to 1.5 degrees C advanced gentian flower phenology and anemone vegetative phenology by a week| but delayed moth larvae emergence by two weeks. The warming increased larval density 10-fold| but decreased anemone density by 30%. The phenological and density shifts under warmed conditions resulted in the insect larvae feeding substantially on the gentian flowers and ovules; there was similar to 100-fold more damage in warmed than in unwarmed chambers. This radically increased trophic connection reduced gentian plant reproduction and likely contributed to its reduced abundance in the warmed chambers. 3251,2011,2,4,Shifting Threats Faced by the San Clemente Sage Sparrow,Threats to a species' persistence are likely to change as conservation measures reduce some threats| while natural and anthropogenic changes increase others. Despite a variety of potential underlying mechanisms| extinction threats will be manifested through one of the 3 components of population dynamics: reducing population growth potential| increasing population variability| or lowering the population ceiling. Consequently| effective management can be guided by monitoring programs and population models that examine each of these components. We examined the potential for a coupled monitoring and modeling effort to guide management of species-at-risk while accounting for evolving risks using the case study of the threatened San Clemente sage sparrow (Amphispiza belli clementeae). Originally listed due to a low population ceiling imposed by severe habitat loss| we found that the major threat to San Clemente sage sparrow persistence has shifted to low population growth potential driven by high juvenile mortality. We further found that successful mitigation of high juvenile mortality will shift the primary threat to drought frequency| which is predicted to increase on San Clemente Island as a consequence of global climate change. The latter shift is a consequence of the boom-bust ecology exhibited by San Clemente sage sparrows in response to rainfall-likely a common characteristic of short-lived terrestrial vertebrates in arid environments. Our ability to successfully recover this species hinges on a comprehensive monitoring and modeling program incorporating all 3 components of population dynamics informing changes in management priorities to reflect shifting threats. Our study indicates that the next critical step to recovering sage sparrows is to understand and mitigate the causes of high juvenile mortality. In response to these predictions| the United States Navy has funded a radio-telemetry study to determine the cause(s) of juvenile mortalities. (c) 2011 The Wildlife Society. 3221,2011,2,4,Shoreline evolution under climate change wave scenarios,This paper investigates changes in shoreline evolution caused by changes in wave climate. In particular| a number of nearshore wave climate scenarios corresponding to a 'present' (1961-1990) and a future time-slice (2071-2100) are used to drive a beach evolution model to determine monthly and seasonal statistics. To limit the number of variables| an idealised shoreline segment is adopted. The nearshore wave climate scenarios are generated from wind climate scenarios through point wave hindcast and inshore transformation. The original wind forcing comes from regional climate change model experiments of different resolutions and/or driving global climate models| representing different greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. It corresponds to a location offshore the south central coast of England. Hypothesis tests are applied to map the degree of evidence of future change in wave and shoreline statistics relative to the present. Differential statistics resulting from different global climate models and future emission scenarios are also investigated. Further| simple| fast| and straightforward methods that are capable of accommodating a great number of climate change scenarios with limited data reduction requirements are proposed to tackle the problem under consideration. The results of this study show that there are statistically significant changes in nearshore wave climate conditions and beach alignment between current and future climate scenarios. Changes are most notable during late summer for the medium-high future emission scenario and late winter for the medium-low. Despite frequent disagreement between global climate change models on the statistical significance of a change| all experiments agreed in future seasonal trends. Finally| a point of importance for coastal management| material shoreline changes are generally linked to significant changes in future wave direction rather than wave height. 12552,2011,3,4,Short life-cycle deteriorating product remanufacturing in a green supply chain inventory control system,Due to global warming| environmental consciousness and shortening product life-cycles| more attentions have been paid to ecological protection and resource utilization. Green products and production process designs significantly influence the environment and resource re-usage. The relevant EU regulations| such as WEEE and EuP| have reduced negative effects by controlling the disposals and the resource re-usage. In this study| green product designs and remanufacturing efforts are investigated when we develop an integrated production inventory model with short life-cycles. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the theory. We have shown that new technology evolution| remanufacturing ratios and system's holding costs are critical factors affecting decision making in a green supply chain inventory control system. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11638,2011,5,4,Short-term dynamics of a low-centred ice-wedge polygon near Chokurdakh (NE Yakutia| NE Siberia) and climate change during the last ca 1250 years,Palaeoecological studies (including analysis of pollen| macrofossils| geochemistry| and AMS radiocarbon dates) of four peat sections from one low-centred ice-wedge polygon in NE Yakutia (NE Siberia) allow the three-dimensional reconstruction of polygon development during the last ca 1250 years. After drainage of a lake| peat forming vegetation invaded rapidly. Comparison with palaeotemperature data shows that the initial formation of mature ridges coincided with a period of high summer temperatures around AD 1400. The ridges persisted and expanded during the subsequent colder ca 200 years. Partial collapse of various ridges at the end of the 18th century corresponded to a phase with low summer temperatures. During the warm| 20th century one collapsed ridge regenerated| whereas another persisted in its collapsed state. Ice-wedge polygons are| thus| complex and highly dynamic ecosystems| in which changes in temperature and precipitation may induce rapid ecological changes by the complex interplay of water| ice and vegetation. Our study indicates that global warming associated with a decrease in summer precipitation may initially result in enhanced polygon ridge formation. The combination of longer summers and increased winter precipitation| as predicted for high latitudes will| however| eventually result in larger meltwater input in the polygon mires| which may cause the (partial) collapse of polygon ridges and underlying ice-wedges. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12473,2011,3,2,Short-Term Inventory of GHG Fluxes in Semi-Natural and Anthropogenized Grassland,Climate change accelerates global warming and has thus become an increasing concern with need for prompt solutions. This process occurs due to increased atmospheric green house gas (GEIG) emissions. The agro sector (crop and livestock agriculture) contributes 10 to 12% per year of the total global anthropogenic emission and tends to increase. Most agricultural G FIG emissions are generated by intensively fertilized soils| enteric fermentation| and manure management. Remarkable GHG fluxes occurred from grasslands which occupy 69% of global agricultural land. The aim of this investigation was to evaluate and estimate GHG emissions in natural and abandoned grassland improved by managed fertilizing. Experimental data sets cover grassland (clay loam topsoil over silt loam| Calc(ar)i-Endohypogleyic Luvisol) abandoned more than 20 years| which has subsequently been fertilized with different rates of N and multiple N PK. Direct CO(2)| N(2)O| and CH(4) emissions were measured in differently studied treatments (semi-natural sward: Control (0)| N(60)| N(120)| N(180)| N(240)| N(180)P(120|) N(180)K(150)| N(60)P(40)K(50)| and N(180)P(120)K(150); cultural pasture: N(180)P(120)K(150)) during vegetation period (2009). Decreasing tendency of emission fluxes was determined during vegetation period and employing lower fertilizer rates. Therefore| appropriate fertilizing rate (N(60)P(40)K(50)) of extensive grassland should be considered for its mitigating impact on climate change. 11799,2011,2,4,Short-term nitrogen additions can shift a coastal wetland from a sink to a source of N(2)O,Coastal salt marshes sequester carbon at high rates relative to other ecosystems and emit relatively little methane particularly compared to freshwater wetlands. However| fluxes of all major greenhouse gases (N(2)O| CH(4)|and CO(2)) need to be quantified for accurate assessment of the climatic roles of these ecosystems. Anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (via run-off| atmospheric deposition| and wastewater) impact coastal marshes. To test the hypothesis that a pulse of nitrogen loading may increase greenhouse gas emissions from salt marsh sediments| we compared N(2)O| CH(4) and respiratory CO(2) fluxes from nitrate-enriched plots in a Spartina patens marsh (receiving single additions of NaNO(3) equivalent to 1.4 g N m(-2)) to those from control plots (receiving only artificial seawater solutions) in three short-term experiments (July 2009| April 2010| and June 2010). In July 2009| we also compared N(2)O and CH(4) fluxes in both opaque and transparent chambers to test the influence of light on gas flux measurements. Background fluxes of N(2)O in July 2009 averaged -33 mu mol N(2)O m(-2) day(-1). However| within 1 h of nutrient additions| N(2)O fluxes were significantly greater in plots receiving nitrate additions relative to controls in July 2009. Respiratory rates and CH(4) fluxes were not significantly affected. N(2)O fluxes were significantly higher in dark than in transparent chambers| averaging 108 and 42 mu mol N(2)O m(-2) day(-1) respectively. After 2 days| when nutrient concentrations returned to background levels| none of the greenhouse gas fluxes differed from controls. In April 2010| N(2)O and CH(4) fluxes were not significantly affected by nitrate| possibly due to higher nitrogen demands by growing S. patens plants| but in June 2010 trends of higher N(2)O fluxes were again found among nitrate-enriched plots| indicating that responses to nutrient pulses may be strongest during the summer. In terms of carbon equivalents| the highest average N(2)O and CH(4) fluxes observed| exceeded half the magnitude of typical daily net carbon sequestration rates by salt marshes. Thus| anthropogenic additions of nitrate to coasts can substantially alter N(2)O fluxes from marshes| although substantial temporal variation in these fluxes was observed. To better assess the climatic roles of salt marshes| greenhouse gas emissions need to be studied in the context of chronic nitrogen loads that impact many coastal ecosystems. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11719,2011,2,4,Short-term temperature dependence of heterotrophic soil respiration after one-month of pre-incubation at different temperatures,Quantification of microbial activities involved in soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition is critical for the prediction of the long-term impact of climate change on soil respiration (SR) and SOC stock. Although the temperature sensitivity of SR is especially critical in semi-arid regions| such as North West Tunisia| where the SOC stock is low| little research has been carried out in these environments. More needs to be known about factors| such as SOC availability that influence temperature sensitivity. In this study| soil samples were incubated with and without glucose addition for 28 days after a 28-day pre-incubation period. Pre-incubation and incubation was carried out at 20 degrees C| 30 degrees C| 40 degrees C and 50 degrees C. Respiration measurements were taken with temperature| glucose addition and incubation time as independent variables. The highest pre-incubation temperature reduced the temperature sensitivity of SR during the subsequent incubation period| both with and without glucose addition. Soil samples pre-incubated at 50 degrees C had the lowest SR at all subsequent incubation temperatures and the lowest temperature sensitivity of SR| even after glucose addition. However| after glucose addition| the effect of a high pre-incubation temperature on soil respiration lasted only two days. Measuring the water-soluble carbon (WSC) in soil samples suggested that the high pre-incubation temperature may have killed part of the microbial biomass| modified microbial communities or solubilized SOC. For quantifying the possible effect of global warming| in particular heat waves| on soil respiration in the soil studied| the results indicate a moderate response of soil respiration to temperature at high temperatures| as shown by Q(10) close to 1.7| even in the range 40-50 degrees C. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3171,2011,2,4,Shrinking lakes of the Arctic: Spatial relationships and trajectory of change,Over the past 3 decades the Arctic has seen substantial warming. Previous local to regional scale studies have shown a considerable reduction in the size of lakes in this region. The subsequent exposure of carbon- and methane-rich sediments and the direct changes in surface albedo feed back into the drivers of regional and global climate change. Understanding and quantifying changes in the Arctic is a critical component of climate modeling due to the cooling effect of the Arctic on the global climate. The current work utilizes global satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) instrument to investigate changes in lakes across Canada between 2000 and 2009. The results show a net reduction of more than 6|700 km(2) in the surface area of water in lakes across Canada. Modest gains in the southern regions are offset by larger losses in surface area farther north. Additionally| spatial analysis shows that the lakes showing change are clustered in groups. This suggests that local variability may play a role in the observed changes. Further work is needed to extend the analysis to the circumpolar Arctic. Citation: Carroll| M. L.| J. R. G. Townshend| C. M. DiMiceli| T. Loboda| and R. A. Sohlberg (2011)| Shrinking lakes of the Arctic: Spatial relationships and trajectory of change| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L20406| doi: 10.1029/2011GL049427. 11630,2011,2,4,Signature of ice melt over the Greenland derived from MSMR (OCEANSAT-1) data,In order to monitor the impact of global warming phenomena over the Polar Regions| it is necessary to monitor snow/ice melt on the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets. Using MSMR data| it is possible to differentiate sea ice at different concentration levels. On the basis of microwave emissivities of continental ice and sea ice| useful information on the formation and melting of the ice can be derived. The paper discusses different strategies to derive a melt signal from the MSMR observations for the continental ice sheets in Greenland. The Polarization Difference (PD) for 21 GHz| available from MSMR data| is studied and an appropriate threshold is selected to detect the presence of melt signal. The results of the present study have bearing on climate changes. 12335,2011,4,4,SIGNATURES OF UNIVERSAL CHARACTERISTICS OF FRACTAL FLUCTUATIONS IN GLOBAL MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES,This paper proposes a general systems theory for fractals visualising the emergence of successively larger scale fluctuations resulting from the space-time integration of enclosed smaller scale fluctuations. Global gridded time series data sets of monthly mean temperatures for the period 1880 2007/2008 are analysed to show that data sets and corresponding power spectra exhibit distributions close to the model predicted inverse power law distribution. The model predicted and observed universal spectrum for interannual variability rules out linear secular trends in global monthly mean temperatures. Global warming results in intensification of fluctuations of all scales and manifested immediately in high frequency fluctuations. 11703,2011,2,3,Simulated Changes in the Freezing Rain Climatology of North America under Global Warming Using a Coupled Climate Model,A precipitation typing algorithm was applied to climate model simulations in order to investigate the effect of global warming on the occurrence of freezing rain over North America. The model used in the study was the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis' CGCM3. Two realizations of the present-day (1981-2000) climate and two realizations of a global warming (2081-2100) simulation were run using scenario A2 from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The algorithm was applied to the four twenty-year periods in order to determine the change in the number and distribution of freezing rain events. The model results indicate that the present-day freezing rain maximum over eastern North America will shift poleward and weaken with the result that freezing rain events will decrease significantly in the eastern United States and the Atlantic Provinces. To the north of the maximum and over central Canada there will be modest increases in freezing rain. When averaged over North America| there will be an overall decrease in freezing rain events with global warming. 11775,2011,2,3,Simulated projections for summer monsoon climate over India by a high-resolution regional climate model (PRECIS),Impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon climate is examined using Hadley Centre's high-resolution regional climate model| PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies). Three simulations from a 17-member Perturbed Physics Ensemble generated using Hadley Center Coupled Model (HadCM3) for the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project| are used to drive PRECIS. The PRECIS simulations corresponding to the IPCC-SRES A1B emission scenario are carried out for a continuous period of 1961-2098. The model shows reasonable skill in simulating the monsoon climate over India. The climate projections are examined over three time slices| viz. short (2020s| i.e. 2011-2040)| medium (2050s| i.e. 2041-2070) and long (2080s| i.e. 2071-2098). The model projections indicate significant warming over India towards the end of the 21st century. The summer monsoon precipitation over India is expected to be 9-16% more in 2080s compared to the baseline (1970s| i.e. 1961-1990) under global warming conditions. Also| the rainy days are projected to be less frequent and more intense over central India. 12825,2011,2,3,Simulated reduction in upwelling of tropical oxygen minimum waters in a warmer climate,Waters of the Atlantic and Pacific tropical oxygen minimum zones (OMZs)| located in the poorly ventilated shadow zones of their respective ocean basins| reach the sea surface mostly in the eastern boundary and equatorial upwelling regions| thereby providing nutrients sustaining elevated biological productivity. Associated export of sinking organic matter leads to oxygen consumption at depth| and thereby helps to maintain the tropical OMZs. Biogeochemical feedback processes between nutrient-rich OMZ waters and biological production in the upwelling regions and their net impact on the evolution of the OMZs depend on the strengths of the flow pathways connecting OMZs and the upper ocean| because even though water has to be isolated below the mixed layer for some time in order for OMZs to develop| it has to be brought up to the surface mixed layer eventually in order to exchange properties with the atmosphere. Here| we investigate the connections between OMZs and the surface mixed layer| and their sensitivity to global warming with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model by analyzing the fate of simulated floats released in the OMZs. We find that under present-day climate conditions| on decadal time scales a much larger portion of the model's OMZ waters reaches the surface ocean in the Pacific than in the Atlantic Ocean: within 20 years| 75% in the Pacific and 38% in the Atlantic. When atmospheric CO(2) is doubled| the fraction of modeled OMZ waters reaching the upwelling in the same time decreases by about 25% in both oceans. As a consequence| feedback between biogeochemical processes in OMZs and in the surface ocean is likely to be weakened in the future. 3303,2011,4,4,Simulated Spatiotemporal Response of Ocean Heat Transport to Freshwater Enhancement in North Atlantic and Associated Mechanisms,The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports a large amount of heat to northern high latitudes| playing an important role in the global climate change. Investigation of the freshwater perturbation in North Atlantic (NA) has become one of the hot topics in the recent years. In this study| the mechanism and pathway of meridional ocean heat transport (OHT) under the enhanced freshwater input to the northern high latitudes in the Atlantic are investigated by an ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model. The results show that the anomalous OHT in the freshwater experiment (FW) is dominated by the meridional circulation kinetic and ocean thermal processes. In the FW| OHT drops down during the period of weakened AMOC while the upper tropical ocean turns warmer due to the retained NA warm currents. Conversely| OHT recovers as the AMOC recovers| and the mechanism can be generalized as: 1) increased ocean heat content in the tropical Southern Ocean during the early integration provides the thermal condition for the recovery of OHT in NA; 2) the OHT from the Southern Ocean enters the NA through the equator along the deep Ekman layer; 3) in NA| the recovery of OHT appears mainly along the isopycnic layers of 24.70-25.77 below the mixing layer. It is then transported into the mixing layer from the "outcropping points" in northern high latitudes| and finally released to the atmosphere by the ocean-atmosphere heat exchange. 12591,2011,5,4,Simulated variations of eolian dust from inner Asian deserts at the mid-Pliocene| last glacial maximum| and present day: contributions from the regional tectonic uplift and global climate change,Northern Tibetan Plateau uplift and global climate change are regarded as two important factors responsible for a remarkable increase in dust concentration originating from inner Asian deserts during the Pliocene-Pleistocene period. Dust cycles during the mid-Pliocene| last glacial maximum (LGM)| and present day are simulated with a global climate model| based on reconstructed dust source scenarios| to evaluate the relative contributions of the two factors to the increment of dust sedimentation fluxes. In the focused downwind regions of the Chinese Loess Plateau/North Pacific| the model generally produces a light eolian dust mass accumulation rate (MAR) of 7.1/0.28 g/cm(2)/kyr during the mid-Pliocene| a heavier MAR of 11.6/0.87 g/cm(2)/kyr at present| and the heaviest MAR of 24.5/1.15 g/cm(2)/kyr during the LGM. Our results are in good agreement with marine and terrestrial observations. These MAR increases can be attributed to both regional tectonic uplift and global climate change. Comparatively| the climatic factors| including the ice sheet and sea surface temperature changes| have modulated the regional surface wind field and controlled the intensity of sedimentation flux over the Loess Plateau. The impact of the Tibetan Plateau uplift| which increased the areas of inland deserts| is more important over the North Pacific. The dust MAR has been widely used in previous studies as an indicator of inland Asian aridity; however| based on the present results| the interpretation needs to be considered with greater caution that the MAR is actually not only controlled by the source areas but the surface wind velocity. 12693,2011,4,4,Simulating cold season snowpack: Impacts of snow albedo and multi-layer snow physics,This study used numerical experiments to investigate two important concerns in simulating the cold season snowpack: the impact of the alterations of snow albedo due to anthropogenic aerosol deposition on snowpack and the treatment of snow physics using a multi-layer snow model. The snow albedo component considered qualitatively future changes in anthropogenic emissions and the subsequent increase or decrease of black carbon deposition on the Sierra Nevada snowpack by altering the prescribed snow albedo values. The alterations in the snow albedo primarily affect the snowpack via surface energy budget with little impact on precipitation. It was found that a decrease in snow albedo (by as little as 5-10% of the reference values) due to an increase in local emissions enhances snowmelt and runoff (by as much as 30-50%) in the early part of a cold season| resulting in reduced snowmelt-driven runoff (by as much as 30-50%) in the later part of the cold season| with the greatest impacts at higher elevations. An increase in snow albedo associated with reduced anthropogenic emissions results in the opposite effects. Thus| the most notable impact of the decrease in snow albedo is to enhance early-season snowmelt and to reduce late-season snowmelt| resulting in an adverse impact on warm season water resources in California. The timing of the sensitivity of snow water equivalent (SWE)| snowmelt| and runoff vary systematically according to terrain elevation; as terrain elevation increases| the peak response of these fields occurs later in the cold season. The response of SWE and surface energy budget to the alterations in snow albedo found in this study shows that the effects of snow albedo on snowpack are further enhanced via local snow-albedo feedback. Results from this experiment suggest that a reduction in local emissions| which would increase snow albedo| could alleviate the early snowmelt and reduced runoff in late winter and early spring caused by global climate change| at least partially. The most serious uncertainties associated with this part of the study are a quantification of the relationship between the amount of black carbon deposition and snow albedo-a subject of future study. The comparison of the spring snowpack simulated with a single- and multi-layer snow model during the spring of 1998 shows that a more realistic treatment of snow physics in a multi-layer snow model could improve snowpack simulations| especially during spring when snow ablation is significant| or in conjunction with climate change projections. 11892,2011,2,3,Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation,Fires in tropical forests release globally significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and may increase in importance as a result of climate change. Despite the striking impacts of fire on tropical ecosystems| the paucity of robust spatial models of forest fire still hampers our ability to simulate tropical forest fire regimes today and in the future. Here we present a probabilistic model of human-induced fire occurrence for the Amazon that integrates the effects of a series of anthropogenic factors with climatic conditions described by vapor pressure deficit. The model was calibrated using NOAA-12 night satellite hot pixels for 2003 and validated for the years 2002| 2004| and 2005. Assessment of the fire risk map yielded fitness values >85% for all months from 2002 to 2005. Simulated fires exhibited high overlap with NOAA-12 hot pixels regarding both spatial and temporal distributions| showing a spatial fit of 50% within a radius of 11 km and a maximum yearly frequency deviation of 15%. We applied this model to simulate fire regimes in the Amazon until 2050 using IPCC's A2 scenario climate data from the Hadley Centre model and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of deforestation and road expansion from SimAmazonia. Results show that the combination of these scenarios may double forest fire occurrence outside protected areas (PAs) in years of extreme drought| expanding the risk of fire even to the northwestern Amazon by midcentury. In particular| forest fires may increase substantially across southern and southwestern Amazon| especially along the highways slated for paving and in agricultural zones. Committed emissions from Amazon forest fires and deforestation under a scenario of global warming and uncurbed deforestation may amount to 21 +/- 4 Pg of carbon by 2050. BAU deforestation may increase fires occurrence outside PAs by 19% over the next four decades| while climate change alone may account for a 12% increase. In turn| the combination of climate change and deforestation would boost fire occurrence outside PAs by half during this period. Our modeling results| therefore| confirm the synergy between the two Ds of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries). 11651,2011,2,3,Simulating zonal scale shifts in the partitioning of surface and subsurface freshwater flow in response to increasing pCO(2),Freshwater discharge is one main element of the hydrological cycle that physically and biogeochemically connects the atmosphere| land surface| and ocean and directly responds to changes in pCO(2). Nevertheless| while the effect of near-future global warming on total river runoff has been intensively studied| little attention has been given to longer-term impacts and thresholds of increasing pCO(2) on changes in the partitioning of surface and subsurface flow paths across broad climate zones. These flow paths and their regional responses have a significant role for vegetation| soils| and nutrient leaching and transport. We present climate simulations for modern| near-future (850 ppm)| far-future (1880 ppm)| and past Late Cretaceous (1880 ppm) pCO(2) levels. The results show large zonal mean differences and the displacement of flows from the surface to the subsurface depending on the respective pCO(2) level. At modern levels the ratio of deeper subsurface to near-surface flows for tropical and high northern latitudes is 1:4.0 and 1:0.5| respectively| reflecting the contrast between permeable tropical soils and the areas of frozen ground in high latitudes. There is a trend toward increased total flow in both climate zones at 850 ppm| modeled to be increases in the total flow of 34 and 51%| respectively| with both zones also showing modest increases in the proportion of subsurface flow. Beyond 850 ppm the simulations show a distinct divergence of hydrological trends between mid- to high northern latitudes and tropical zones. While total wetting reverses in the tropics beyond 850 ppm due to reduced precipitation| with average zonal total runoff decreasing by 46% compared to the 850 ppm simulation| the high northern latitude zone becomes slightly wetter with the average zonal total runoff increasing by a further 3%. The ratio of subsurface to surface flows in the tropics remains at a level similar to the present day| but in the high northern latitude zone the ratio increases significantly to 1:1.6 due to the loss of frozen ground. The results for the high pCO(2) simulations with the same uniform soil and vegetation cover as the Cretaceous are comparable to the results for the Cretaceous simulation| with higher fractions of subsurface flow of 1:5.4 and 1:5.6| respectively for the tropics| and 1:2.2 and 1:1.6| respectively for the high northern latitudes. We suggest that these fundamental similarities between our far future and Late Cretaceous models provide a framework of possible analogous consequences for (far-) future climate change| within which the integrated human impact over the next centuries could be assessed. The results from this modeling study are consistent with climate information from the sedimentary record which highlights the crucial role of terrestrial-marine interactions during past climate change. This study points to profound consequences for soil biogeochemical cycling| with different latitudinal expressions| passing of climate thresholds at elevated pCO(2) levels| and enhanced export of nutrients to the ocean at higher pCO(2). 11962,2011,4,4,Simulation and analysis of outbreaks of bark beetle infestations and their management at the stand level,Outbreaks of bark beetles in forests can result in substantial economic losses. Understanding the factors that influence the development and spread of bark beetle outbreaks is crucial for forest management and for predicting outbreak risks| especially with the expected global warming. Although much research has been done on the ecology and phenology of bark beetles| the complex interplay between beetles| host trees| beetle antagonists and forest management makes predicting beetle population development especially difficult. Using the recent infestations of the European Spruce Bark Beetle (Ips typographus L Col. Scol.) in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany) as a case study| we developed a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model (SAMBIA) that takes into account individual trees and beetles. This model primarily provides a tool for analysing and understanding the spatial and temporal aspects of bark beetles outbreaks at the stand scale. Furthermore| the model should allow an estimation of the effectiveness of concurrent impacts of both antagonists and management to confine outbreak dynamics in practice. We also used the model to predict outbreak probabilities in various settings. The simulation results indicated a distinct threshold behaviour of the system in response to pressure by antagonists or management of the bark beetle population. Despite the different scenarios considered| we were able to extract from the simulations a simple rule of thumb for the successful control of an outbreak: if roughly 80% of individual beetles are killed by antagonists or foresters| outbreaks will rarely take place. Our model allows the core dynamics of this complex system to be reduced to this inherent common denominator. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12758,2011,4,4,Simulation of future global warming scenarios in rice paddies with an open-field warming facility,To simulate expected future global warming| hexagonal arrays of infrared heaters have previously been used to warm open-field canopies of upland crops such as wheat. Through the use of concrete-anchored posts| improved software| overhead wires| extensive grounding| and monitoring with a thermal camera| the technology was safely and reliably extended to paddy rice fields. The system maintained canopy temperature increases within 0.5 degrees C of daytime and nighttime set-point differences of 1.3 and 2.7 degrees C 67% of the time. 12258,2011,5,3,Simulation of sea surface temperature changes in the Middle Pliocene warm period and comparison with reconstructions,The Middle Pliocene (ca 3.12-2.97 Ma) is a recent warm period in the Earth's history. In many respects| the warmth of the Middle Pliocene is similar to the probable warm situation of the late 21st century predicted by climate models. Understanding the Middle Pliocene climate is important in predicting the future climate with global warming. Here| we used the latest reconstructions for the Middle Pliocene-Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 3-to simulate the Middle Pliocene climate with a fully coupled model Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. From comparison of the results of simulations with reconstructions| we considered two important scientific topics of Middle Pliocene climate modeling: extreme warming in the subpolar North Atlantic and a permanent El Nio in the tropical Pacific. Our simulations illustrate that the global annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Middle Pliocene was about 2.3A degrees C higher than that in the pre-industrial era. The warming was stronger at mid- and high latitudes than at low latitudes. The simulated SST changes agree with SST reconstructions in PRISM3 data| especially for the North Atlantic| North Pacific and west coast of South America. However| there were still discrepancies between the simulation of the SST and reconstructions for the subpolar North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. In the case of the Atlantic| the weakened meridional overturning circulation in the simulation did not support the reconstruction of the extremely warm condition in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the case of the tropical Pacific| the whole ocean warmed| especially the eastern tropical Pacific| which did not support the permanent El Nio suggested by the reconstruction. From evaluation of the modeling and reconstruction| we suggest that the above discrepancies were due to uncertainties in reconstructions| difficulties in paleoclimate modeling and deficiencies of climate models. The discrepancies should be reduced through consideration of both the modeling and data. 12233,2011,2,3,SIMULATION OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN IRAN UNDER THE ATMOSPHERE CARBON DIOXIDE DUPLICATION CONDITION,The present research intends to show the effect of global warming on the trend and patterns of temperature in Iran. The study has been divided into two primary parts| the first of which is an analysis of the country's temperature trend using the following data measures: the minimum| maximum| and mean seasonal night temperature (the minimum temperature) components| the day temperature (the maximum temperature) component and the mean daily temperature component. This data is specific to the time frame 195110 2005 and it was obtained from 92 synoptic and climatology stations around the country. The second part of this research involved simulating and forecasting the effects of global warming on temperature values under conditions in which greenhouse gases have increased. For analyzing these simulations and forecasts the MAGICC SCENGEN model was used and different climate change scenarios were taken into consideration. The results are quite interesting. In the analysis of the country's current temperature trend and in the forecasting's| specifically related to time| a significant temperature increase was observed during the summer months. Also| with regard to altitudinal levels| it was evident that stations at higher altitudes show a more significant increase in daily and mean daily temperatures. Taking into account the output mean of the different climate change scenarios| the temperature simulations show a 4.41 degrees C increase in Iran's mean temperature by 2100. Most of these temperature increases would occur in the southern and eastern parts of Bushehr| certain coastal regions of the Persian Gulf| eastern and western parts of Fars| Kohgilooye. Boyerahmad| southern parts of Yazd| as well as southern and southeastern parts of Esfahan. 3291,2011,2,4,Sinking ships: conservation options for endemic taxa threatened by sea level rise,Low-elevation islands face threats from sea level rise (SLR) and increased storm intensity. Evidence of endangered species' population declines and shifts in vegetation communities are already underway in the Florida Keys. SLR predictions indicate large areas of these habitats may be eliminated in the next century. Using the Florida Keys as a model system| we present a process for evaluating conservation options for rare and endemic taxa. Considering species characteristics and habitat| we assess central issues that influence conservation options. We contrast traditional and controversial options for two animal and two plant species giving special emphasis to perceptions of ecological risk and safety from SLR and suggest courses of action. Multiple strategies will be required to spread extinction risk and will be effective for different time periods. Global climate change presents an uncertain| perhaps no-analog future that will challenge land managers and practitioners to re-evaluate equilibrium-state-conceived laws and policies not only for these taxa| but for many facing similar threats. To embrace conservation in a changing world will require a new dialogue that includes controversial ideas| a review of existing laws and policies| and preparation for the oncoming change. 11578,2011,2,3,Six Climate Change-Related Events In The United States Accounted For About $14 Billion In Lost Lives And Health Costs,The future health costs associated with predicted climate change-related events such as hurricanes| heat waves| and floods are projected to be enormous. This article estimates the health costs associated with six climate change-related events that struck the United States between 2000 and 2009. The six case studies came from categories of climate change-related events projected to worsen with continued global warming-ozone pollution| heat waves| hurricanes| infectious disease outbreaks| river flooding| and wildfires. We estimate that the health costs exceeded $14 billion| with 95 percent due to the value of lives lost prematurely. Actual health care costs were an estimated $740 million. This reflects more than 760|000 encounters with the health care system. Our analysis provides scientists and policy makers with a methodology to use in estimating future health costs related to climate change and highlights the growing need for public health preparedness. 11914,2011,5,3,Slow release of fossil carbon during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,The transient global warming event known as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum occurred about 55.9 Myr ago. The warming was accompanied by a rapid shift in the isotopic signature of sedimentary carbonates| suggesting that the event was triggered by a massive release of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system. However| the source| rate of emission and total amount of carbon involved remain poorly constrained. Here we use an expanded marine sedimentary section from Spitsbergen to reconstruct the carbon isotope excursion as recorded in marine organic matter. We find that the total magnitude of the carbon isotope excursion in the ocean-atmosphere system was about 4 parts per thousand. We then force an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to conform to our isotope record| allowing us to generate a continuous estimate of the rate of carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Our simulations show that the peak rate of carbon addition was probably in the range of 0.3-1.7 Pg C yr(-1)| much slower than the present rate of carbon emissions. 12839,2011,3,2,Smart film actuators using biomass plastic,This paper presents a novel smart film actuator based on the use of a biomass plastic as a piezoelectric film. Conventional polymeric smart sensors and actuators have been based upon synthetic piezoelectric polymer films such as PVDF. Almost all synthetic polymers are made from nearly depleted oil resources. In addition combustion of their materials releases carbon dioxide| thereby contributing to global warming. Thus at least two important sustainability principles are violated when employing synthetic polymers: avoiding depletable resources and avoiding ecosystem destruction. To overcome such problems| industrial plastic products made from synthetic polymers were developed to replace oil-based plastics with biomass plastics. This paper applies a biomass plastic with piezoelectricity such as poly-L-lactic acid (PLLA). As a result| PLLA film becomes a distributed parameter actuator per se| hence an environmentally conscious smart film actuator is developed. Firstly| this paper overviews the fundamental properties of piezoelectric synthetic polymers and biopolymers. The concept of carbon neutrality using biopolymers is mentioned. Then a two-dimensional modal actuator for exciting a specific structural mode is proposed. Furthermore| a biomass plastic-based cantilever beam with the capability of modal actuation is developed| the validity of the proposed smart film actuator based upon a biomass plastic being analytically as well as experimentally verified. 12148,2011,3,2,Smart film actuators using biomass plastic,This paper presents a novel smart film actuator based on the use of a biomass plastic as a piezoelectric film. Conventional polymeric smart sensors and actuators have been based upon synthetic piezoelectric polymer films such as PVDF. Almost all synthetic polymers are made from nearly depleted oil resources. In addition combustion of their materials releases carbon dioxide| thereby contributing to global warming. Thus at least two important sustainability principles are violated when employing synthetic polymers: avoiding depletable resources and avoiding ecosystem destruction. To overcome such problems| industrial plastic products made from synthetic polymers were developed to replace oil-based plastics with biomass plastics. This paper applies a biomass plastic with piezoelectricity such as poly-L-lactic acid (PLLA). As a result| PLLA film becomes a distributed parameter actuator per se| hence an environmentally conscious smart film actuator is developed. Firstly| this paper overviews the fundamental properties of piezoelectric synthetic polymers and biopolymers. The concept of carbon neutrality using biopolymers is mentioned. Then a two-dimensional modal actuator for exciting a specific structural mode is proposed. Furthermore| a biomass plastic-based cantilever beam with the capability of modal actuation is developed| the validity of the proposed smart film actuator based upon a biomass plastic being analytically as well as experimentally verified. 3500,2011,3,4,Smart Operation of Smart Grid: Risk-Limiting Dispatch,The drastic reduction of carbon emission to combat global climate change cannot be realized without a significant contribution from the electricity sector. Renewable energy resources must take a bigger share in the generation mix| effective demand response must be widely implemented| and high-capacity energy storage systems must be developed. A smart grid is necessary to manage and control the increasingly complex future grid. Certain smart grid elements-renewables| storage| microgrid| consumer choice| and smart appliances-increase uncertainty in both supply and demand of electric power. Other smart gird elements-sensors| smart meters| demand response| and communications-provide more accurate information about the power system and more refined means of control. Simply building hardware for renewable generators and the smart grid| but still using the same operating paradigm of the grid| will not realize the full potential for overall system efficiency and carbon reduction. In this paper| a new operating paradigm| called risk-limiting dispatch| is proposed. It treats generation as a heterogeneous commodity of intermittent or stochastic power and uses information and control to design hedging techniques to manage the risk of uncertainty. 12441,2011,2,4,Snow cover dynamics and hydrological regime of the Hunza River basin| Karakoram Range| Northern Pakistan,A major proportion of flow in the Indus River is contributed by its snow-and glacier-fed river catchments situated in the Himalaya| Karakoram and Hindukush ranges. It is therefore essential to understand the cryosphere dynamics in this area for water resource management. The MODIS MOD10A2 remote-sensing database of snow cover products from March 2000 to December 2009 was selected to analyse the snow cover changes in the Hunza River basin (the snow-and glacier-fed sub-catchment of the Indus River). A database of daily flows for the Hunza River at Dainyor Bridge over a period of 40 yr and climate data (precipitation and temperature) for 10 yr from three meteorological stations within the catchment was made available to investigate the hydrological regime in the area. Analysis of remotely sensed cryosphere (snow and ice cover) data during the last decade (2000-2009) suggest a rather slight expansion of cryosphere in the area in contrast to most of the regions in the world where glaciers are melting rapidly. This increase in snow cover may be the result of an increase in winter precipitation caused by westerly circulation. The impact of global warming is not effective because a large part of the basin area lies under high altitudes where the temperature remains negative throughout most of the year. 12873,2011,2,4,Snow/Ice and Cloud Responses to Future Climate Change around Hokkaido,Wintertime climate around Hokkaido is highly sensitive to fluctuations in snow and sea-ice. We examined future climate change in heavy snowfall region around Hokkaido| using the Pseudo-Global-Warming method (PGW) by a regional climate model. The boundary conditions of the PGW run were obtained by adding the difference between the future (2090s) and past (1990s) climates simulated by coupled general circulation models| into the 6-hourly reanalysis and daily sea surface temperature data. The PGW experiments show that snow depth decreases significantly over mountainous areas. However| snow cover decreases mainly over plain areas| which accelerates surface warming due to the decreased snow albedo. Despite the snow reductions| precipitation increases over the mountainous areas because of enhanced water vapor content. However| precipitation decreases over the Japan Sea and neighboring the coastal areas| suggesting a weakening of the convergent cloud band which is formed by convergence between cold northwesterly from the Eurasian continent and anticyclonic circulation over the Okhotsk Sea. Our results indicate the contrasting cloud responses to future climate change over the Japan and Okhotsk Seas in terms of meso-scale climate system. 12647,2011,3,4,Socio-Political Reception of Sewage Sludge Recycling: The Hungarian Perspective,The management of sewage sludge is facing new challenges in the early 21st century. It accounts for an ever-larger proportion of the costs of wastewater treatment. In Hungary| water utilities and land suitable for agricultural recycling have a new structure of ownership as a result of post-transition privatisation| with fundamental consequences for sludge use. A new factor| climate change| may make wastewater irrigation-particularly for energy crops-an important feature of water management in areas global warming have rendered arid. As the increasing costs of sludge treatment are passed on to the customers| service charges are expected to rise| having a potentially adverse effect on water use. 12364,2011,2,4,Soil carbon and climate change: from the Jenkinson effect to the compost-bomb instability,First generation climate-carbon cycle models suggest that climate change will suppress carbon accumulation in soils| and could even lead to a net loss of global soil carbon over the next century. These model results are qualitatively consistent with soil carbon projections published by Jenkinson almost two decades ago. More recently there has been a suggestion that the release of heat associated with soil decomposition| which is neglected in the vast majority of large-scale models| may be critically important under certain circumstances. Models with and without the extra self-heating from microbial respiration have been shown to yield significantly different results. The present paper presents a mathematical analysis of a tipping point or runaway feedback that can arise when the heat from microbial respiration is generated more rapidly than it can escape from the soil to the atmosphere. This 'compost-bomb instability' is most likely to occur in drying organic soils with high porosity covered by an insulating lichen or moss layer. However| the instability is also found to be strongly dependent on the rate of global warming. This paper derives the conditions required to trigger the compost-bomb instability| and discusses the relevance of these to the concept of dangerous rates of climate change. On the basis of simple numerical experiments| rates of long-term warming equivalent to 10 degrees C per century could be sufficient to trigger compost-bomb instability in drying organic soils. 11943,2011,4,4,Soil carbon model alternatives for ECHAM5/JSBACH climate model: Evaluation and impacts on global carbon cycle estimates,The response of soil organic carbon to climate change might lead to significant feedbacks affecting global warming. This response can be studied by coupled climate-carbon cycle models but so far the description of soil organic carbon cycle in these models has been quite simple. In this work we used the coupled climate-carbon cycle model ECHAM5/JSBACH (European Center/Hamburg Model 5/Jena Scheme for Biosphere-Atmosphere Coupling in Hamburg) with two different soil carbon modules| namely (1) the original soil carbon model of JSBACH called CBALANCE and (2) a new soil carbon model Yasso07| to study the interaction between climate variability and soil organic carbon. Equivalent ECHAM5/JSBACH simulations were conducted using both soil carbon models| with freely varying atmospheric CO(2) for the last 30 years (1977-2006). In this study| anthropogenic CO(2) emissions and ocean carbon cycle were excluded. The new model formulation produced soil carbon stock estimates that were much closer to measured values. It also captured better the seasonal cycle of the direct CO(2) exchange measurements at the three grassland sites considered (RMS error reduced by 12%)| while for the five forest sites also analyzed| the results were ambiguous and the RMS error was 12% larger for Yasso07 than for CBALANCE. As a response to climatic changes| Yasso07 showed greater release of soil carbon to the atmosphere than the original model formulation during the years 1977-2006. This emphasizes the need for better understanding the processes affecting soil carbon stocks and their turnover rates to predict the climatic feedbacks. 12579,2011,2,4,Soil carbon stabilization in jack pine stands along the Boreal Forest Transect Case Study,Boreal forests| containing > 20% of the total organic carbon (OC) present at the surface of the Earth| are expected to be highly vulnerable to global warming. The objective of this study was to compare soil OC stocks and chemistry in jack pine stands located along a latitudinal climatic transect in central Canada. Total OC stocks (0-1 m) increased with decreasing mean annual temperature (MAT). We used a combination of physical fractionation of soil OC pools| 13C isotopic determination and cross-polarization| magic-angle spinning 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to further characterize OC composition at all sites. Soil OC was dominated by labile pools. As illustrated by the C/N ratios| delta 13C data and results from the 13C NMR analysis| the light fraction showed little alteration within the soil profiles. Instead| this fraction reflected the importance of fresh litter inputs and showed an increase in root contribution with depth. As opposed to the light fraction| the clay- and silt-stabilized OC exhibited an increase in delta 13C and a decrease in C/N with depth| indicating an increase in its degree of decomposition. These changes with depth were more marked at the southern than the northern sites. Results hence suggest that if the MAT were to increase in the northern boreal forest the overall jack pine soil OC stocks would decrease but the remaining OC would become more decomposed| and likely more stabilized than what is currently present within the soils. 11883,2011,4,3,Soil Organic Carbon Modeling and Mapping in a Semi-Arid Environment Using Thematic Mapper Data,This study evaluated the effectiveness of using Thematic Mapper (TM) data for estimating soil organic carbon (SOC) content in the Zarqa Basin| Jordan| a typical semi-arid environment| and under natural surface conditions by testing a variety of statistical modeling techniques. This is essential for implementing carbon crediting programs for ameliorating the effects of global warming. Although none of the developed models was powerful in predicting SOC| a stepwise regression model was selected since it provided the lowest validation root mean square error (RMSE) of 10.4 metric tons per hectare (ton/ha). Using this model| a SOC map for the basin was constructed by applying map algebra. The total SOC content to 0.2 m depth of the basin was calculated to be 9|423|986.4 metric tons with SOC density of 26.3 ton/ha. This study suggested that| in semi-arid environments and using the statistical modeling techniques that were tested| TM-based SOC models cannot be used for implementing carbon crediting programs; however| they can estimate total surface SOC pools in large areas to within a few percent error.
12560,2011,2,4,Soil organic matter dynamics in a North America tallgrass prairie after 9 yr of experimental warming,The influence of global warming on soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems remains unclear. In this study| we combined soil fractionation with isotope analyses to examine SOM dynamics after nine years of experimental warming in a North America tallgrass prairie. Soil samples from the control plots and the warmed plots were separated into four aggregate sizes (>2000 mu m| 250-2000 mu m| 53-250 mu m| and <53 mu m)| and three density fractions (free light fraction - LF| intra-aggregate particulate organic matter - iPOM| and mineral-associated organic matter - mSOM). All fractions were analyzed for their carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content| and delta(13)C and delta(15)N values. Warming did not significantly effect soil aggregate distribution and stability but increased C(4)-derived C input into all fractions with the greatest in LF. Warming also stimulated decay rates of C in whole soil and all aggregate sizes. C in LF turned over faster than that in iPOM in the warmed soils. The delta(15)N values of soil fractions were more enriched in the warmed soils than those in the control| indicating that warming accelerated loss of soil N. The delta(15)N values changed from low to high| while C: N ratios changed from high to low in the order LF| iPOM| and mSOM due to increased degree of decomposition and mineral association. Overall| warming increased the input of C(4)-derived C by 11.6 %| which was offset by the accelerated loss of soil C. Our results suggest that global warming simultaneously stimulates C input via shift in species composition and decomposition of SOM| resulting in negligible net change in soil C. 3301,2011,4,4,Soil warming| carbon-nitrogen interactions| and forest carbon budgets,Soil warming has the potential to alter both soil and plant processes that affect carbon storage in forest ecosystems. We have quantified these effects in a large| long-term (7-y) soil-warming study in a deciduous forest in New England. Soil warming has resulted in carbon losses from the soil and stimulated carbon gains in the woody tissue of trees. The warming-enhanced decay of soil organic matter also released enough additional inorganic nitrogen into the soil solution to support the observed increases in plant carbon storage. Although soil warming has resulted in a cumulative net loss of carbon from a New England forest relative to a control area over the 7-y study| the annual net losses generally decreased over time as plant carbon storage increased. In the seventh year| warming-induced soil carbon losses were almost totally compensated for by plant carbon gains in response to warming. We attribute the plant gains primarily to warming-induced increases in nitrogen availability. This study underscores the importance of incorporating carbon-nitrogen interactions in atmosphere-ocean-land earth system models to accurately simulate land feedbacks to the climate system. 12614,2011,3,4,Soiling of building envelope surfaces and its effect on solar reflectance-Part I: Analysis of roofing product databases,The use of highly reflective "cool" roofing materials can decrease demand for air conditioning| mitigate the urban heat island effect| and potentially slow global warming. However| initially high roof solar reflectance can be degraded by natural soiling and weathering processes. We evaluated solar reflectance losses after three years of natural exposure reported in two separate databases: the Rated Products Directory of the US Cool Roof Rating Council (CRRC) and information reported by manufacturers to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s ENERGY STAR (R) rating program. Many product ratings were culled because they were duplicative (within a database) or not measured. A second| site-resolved version of the CRRC dataset was created by transcribing from paper records the site-specific measurements of aged solar reflectance in Florida| Arizona and Ohio. Products with high initial solar reflectance tended to lose reflectance| while those with very low initial solar reflectance tended to become more reflective as they aged. Within the site-resolved CRRC database| absolute solar reflectance losses for samples of medium-to-high initial solar reflectance were 2-3 times greater in Florida (hot and humid) than in Arizona (hot and dry); losses in Ohio (temperate but polluted) were intermediate. Disaggregating results by product type factory-applied coating| field-applied coating| metal| modified bitumen| shingle| single-ply membrane and tile revealed that absolute solar reflectance losses were largest for field-applied coating| modified bitumen and single-ply membrane products| and smallest for factory-applied coating and metal products. The 2008 Title 24 provisional aged solar reflectance formula overpredicts the measured aged solar reflectance of 0-30% of each product type in the culled public CRRC database. The rate of overprediction was greatest for field-applied coating and single-ply membrane products and least for factory-applied coating| shingle| and metal products. New product-specific formulas of the form rho'(a)= 0.20+beta(rho(i)-0.20) can be used to estimate provisional aged solar reflectance rho'(a) from initial solar reflectance rho(i) pending measurement of aged solar reflectance. The appropriate value of soiling resistance beta varies by product type and is selected to attain some desired overprediction rate for the formula. The correlations for shingle products presented in this paper should not be used to predict aged solar reflectance or estimate provisional aged solar reflectance because the data set is too small and too limited in range of initial solar reflectance. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11583,2011,2,4,Solar Elevation Triggers Foraging Activity in a Thermophilic Ant,Nycthemeral rhythm is an important biological trait that allows animals to escape predation and competition and| conversely| to coincide with mutualists. Although laboratory studies have shown that the rhythm depends on both endogenous factors and cyclic environmental cues| the latter is often poorly understood| particularly in the wild. Because insects are mostly ectothermal organisms| their activity rhythm is often thought to depend directly on ground temperature. In Mediterranean habitats| Cataglyphis ants are well known for their unusual thermoresistance| allowing them to forage in summer at the central hours of the day when the ground reaches temperatures that are lethal to their competitors. However| we show that the rhythm of Cataglyphis floricola in south-western Spain is governed by light cues rather than by temperature. First| variations in ant traffic at the nest entrance were better explained by solar elevation angle than by ground temperature on both seasonal and daily scales. Second| if ants waited for the ground to reach a threshold temperature to start their activity| we would expect similar temperatures regardless of the opening hour. However| we found a significant increase in ground temperature as opening hour got later in the day. Third| by using a simple experimental set-up that increased the apparent solar elevation over the nest entrance| we provoked a delay of nest closure time. We discuss the relevance of these results with respect to the life history of Cataglyphis species and their possible consequences in relation to global warming. 11968,2011,3,3,Solid KI Loaded gamma-Al(2)O(3) catalyzed Transesterification of Shaddock Oil,Biodiesel is at present considered to be the best alternative to the fossil fuels. Due to a closed carbon cycle| it does not cause greenhouse effect and its use can help fighting global warming. A large number of methods have been developed and suggested for the production of biodiesel (Fatty acid methyl ester) from vegetable oils and animal fats. At present| biodiesel is mostly produced by reacting methanol and vegetable oil in a batch reactor using a liquid alkaline catalyst. The catalyst cannot be recovered from the reactor and is instead neutralized and disposed of as a waste stream. A heterogeneously-catalyzed process of transesterification would offer a number of advantages over the current technology| such as simplification of the catalyst removal step and economization of the process through regeneration/recycling of the catalyst. Recently| the successful uses of alumina loaded with various oxides and nitrates as solid catalyst are reported. The present work reports the transesterification of Shaddock oil with methanol in presence of solid KI loaded gamma-Al(2)O(3) catalyst. Effects of various parameters such as reaction time| concentration of the catalyst etc. on the yield were also studied. Highest conversion rate of the seed oil to its methyl ester was obtained under the condition of KI loading of 15 w/w%| calcination temperature at 473K| 8h of reaction time at 338K and 3w/w % catalyst and 12:1 molar ratio of methanol in oil. 12866,2011,2,4,Some like it cold: microbial transformations of mercury in polar regions,The contamination of polar regions with mercury that is transported from lower latitudes as inorganic mercury has resulted in the accumulation of methylmercury (MeHg) in food chains| risking the health of humans and wildlife. While production of MeHg has been documented in polar marine and terrestrial environments| little is known about the responsible transformations and transport pathways and the processes that control them. We posit that as in temperate environments| microbial transformations play a key role in mercury geochemical cycling in polar regions by: (1) methylating mercury by one of four proposed pathways| some not previously described; (2) degrading MeHg by activities of mercury resistant and other bacteria; and (3) carrying out redox transformations that control the supply of the mercuric ion| the substrate of methylation reactions. Recent analyses have identified a high potential for mercury-resistant microbes that express the enzyme mercuric reductase to affect the production of gaseous elemental mercury when and where daylight is limited. The integration of microbially mediated processes in the paradigms that describe mercury geochemical cycling is therefore of high priority especially in light of concerns regarding the effect of global warming and permafrost thawing on input of MeHg to polar regions. 12009,2011,2,4,Some like it hot: the effects of climate change on reproduction| immune function and disease resistance in the cricket Gryllus texensis,In many parts of the world| climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of heat waves. How do heat waves impact short-lived poikilotherms such as insects? In the cricket| Gryllus texensis| 6. days of elevated temperatures (i.e. 7 degrees C above the average field temperature and 5 degrees C above their preferred temperature) resulted in increased egg laying| faster egg development and greater mass gain. The increased temperature also increased activity of phenoloxidase and lysozyme-like enzymes| two immune-related enzymes| and enhanced resistance to the Gram-negative bacterium Serratia marcescens. When given a sublethal S. marcescens infection| G. texensis maintained increased reproductive output at the elevated temperature (33 degrees C). These data suggest that heat waves could result in more numerous| disease resistant| crickets. However| resistance to the Gram-positive bacterium| Bacillus cereus was lower at temperatures above or below the average field temperature (26 degrees C). A sublethal infection with B. cereus reduced egg laying at all temperatures and suppressed the increase in egg laying induced by higher temperatures. These results suggest that for some species-pathogen interactions| increased temperatures can induce trade-offs between reproduction and disease resistance. This result may partly explain why G. texensis prefers temperatures lower than those that produce maximal reproductive output and enhanced immune function. 12285,2011,2,4,Some operational uses of satellite remote sensing and marine GIS for sustainable fisheries and aquaculture,An overview of satellite remote-sensing (SRS) operational applications in fisheries is presented| and includes two case studies illustrating the societal benefits of SRS. The first describes the use of satellite-based vessel monitoring systems (VMS) and SRS data in a skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) fishery| including a simple algorithm for determining fishing activity from vessel speed. The second case study illustrates the application of remotely sensed information in determining the impact of climate change on site suitability for scallop (Mizuhopecten yessoensis) aquaculture. Global warming simulated according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios had a significant impact on sites with the greatest suitability for scallop aquaculture. Some challenges in the field of fisheries information systems are also discussed. 12001,2011,4,4,Southern Hemisphere extra-tropical forcing: a new paradigm for El Nio-Southern Oscillation,The main goal of this paper is to shed additional light on the reciprocal dynamical linkages between mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere climate and the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal. While our analysis confirms that ENSO is a dominant source of interannual variability in the Southern Hemisphere| it is also suggested here that subtropical dipole variability in both the Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans triggered by Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude variability may also provide a controlling influence on ENSO in the equatorial Pacific. This subtropical forcing operates through various coupled air-sea feedbacks involving the propagation of subtropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the deep tropics of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from boreal winter to boreal spring and a subsequent dynamical atmospheric response to these SST anomalies linking the three tropical basins at the beginning of the boreal spring. This atmospheric response is characterized by a significant weakening of the equatorial Atlantic and Indian Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This weakened ITCZ forces an equatorial "cold Kelvin wave" response in the middle to upper troposphere that extends eastward from the heat sink regions into the western Pacific. By modulating the vertical temperature gradient and the stability of the atmosphere over the equatorial western Pacific Ocean| this Kelvin wave response promotes persistent zonal wind and convective anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific| which may trigger El Nio onset at the end of the boreal winter. These different processes explain why South Atlantic and Indian subtropical dipole time series indices are highly significant precursors of the Nio34 SST index several months in advance before the El Nio onset in the equatorial Pacific. This study illustrates that the atmospheric internal variability in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere may significantly influence ENSO variability. However| this surprising relationship is observed only during recent decades| after the so-called 1976/1977 climate regime shift| suggesting a possible linkage with global warming or decadal fluctuations of the climate system. 12764,2011,2,4,SOUTHERN POPULATIONS OF EUROPEAN SHAG PHALACROCORAX A. ARISTOTELIS ADVANCE THEIR LAYING DATE IN RESPONSE TO LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT NOT TO LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE,The timing of egg laying is a critical event for the fitness of birds because to a large extent it determines their reproductive success. The effects of weather conditions and climate on the onset of reproduction have been widely studied over recent decades and an advance in the timing of breeding phenology has been confirmed in many species. We explored the variation in the timing of the onset of breeding in a Cantabrian population of European shags over the past decade. The results demonstrate that the laying date of this population has advanced by almost 40 days in only 10 years. This advance in the timing of breeding coincides with the global warming trend detected in the last century. However| of the climatic variables studied| only the temperature anomaly index showed a positive correlation with laying date| whereas the effects of the NAO index and SST were negligible| suggesting that local conditions have a much more important effect on this population than large-scale climate change. 11934,2011,2,4,Southernmost records of bottlenose dolphins| Tursiops truncatus,Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops spp.) are cosmopolitan animals widely distributed in waters of both hemispheres. The taxonomy of Tursiops has long been controversial| with over 20 specific names being published| and subspecies and inshore/offshore forms being proposed. In the southwestern South Atlantic| subspecies T. truncatus truncatus and T. truncatus gephyreus were proposed for specimens along the coasts of Brazil| Uruguay| and Argentina. Sightings of bottlenose dolphins are common along the coast of Argentina as far south as the Province of Chubut (ca. 46A degrees S). Here| we summarize and discuss the southernmost records of bottlenose dolphins. We cannot make inferences about the species or subspecies to which these animals belong given the small number of specimens. Future studies of external measurements| pigmentation| DNA| and isotopes from both sides of the continent should help clarify the situation off southern South America. Furthermore| research is needed to explore a possible link between an effect of general global warming and the Tursiops specimens found this far south. The sighting and specimens described here| at 53A degrees S-nearly 55A degrees S| are the southernmost records for the genus and extend the range of the species in the southern South Atlantic. 12234,2011,2,4,Southward expansion in beetle and butterfly ranges in South Africa,Comparisons of the historical distribution range of two fruit chafers (Mausoleopsis amabilis and Leucocelis rubra)| one longhorn beetle (Phryneta spinator) and five butterflies (Charaxes brutus natalensis| Junonia orithya madagascariensis| Appias sabina phoebe| Mylothris agathina and Coeliades libeon)| with their current ranges show that during the last two decades these species have extended southwards by 0.54-5.64 degrees latitude| along distances of some 90-830 km. Although direct anthropogenic activities (e.g. land-use change| soil and plant transport) are partly responsible for these extensions| it is possible that they are also linked to the 0.5 degrees temperature rise experienced by the region during the same period| as a direct consequence of global warming. 12644,2011,2,4,Spatial and temporal temperature trends on the Yunnan Plateau (Southwest China) during 1961-2004,Monthly mean (TEM)| maximum (T(max)) and minimum (T(min)) surface air temperatures at 119 meteorological stations on the Yunnan Plateau (YP| Southwest China) were analysed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns during the period 1961-2004. Linear trend analyses revealed that annual temperature over the YP increased at a rate of 0.3 degrees C/decade during the period 1961-2004| while warming trend of 0.33 degrees C/decade and 0.26 degrees C/decade was observed for winter and summer temperatures| respectively. Warming trends of nighttime minimum temperature are more pronounced than those of daytime maximum temperature| especially during winter season. Consequently| a decreasing trend of diurnal temperature ranges (DTR = T(max) - T(min)) was observed. Five spatial patterns of temperature variability were objectively defined by rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis| which are associated with distinct temporal temperature variations and geographical area over the YP. Annual temperature increases were found to be most pronounced in the southern and northwestern (high-elevation) parts of the YP| whereas the hot-dry valleys along the Yangtze and Red River basins experienced cooling during the past four decades. Copyright (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society 11803,2011,2,4,Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska| Canada and Greenland,Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska| Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As| Cd| Cu| Hg| Mn| Pb| Rb| Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg| Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast| concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu| Mn| Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies| possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd| Hg| Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades| we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also| Hg : Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears| which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg(2+)-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown| future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements. 3196,2011,4,4,Spatial and Temporal Variability of Net Primary Productivity (NPP) over Terrestrial Biosphere of India Using NOAA-AVHRR Based GloPEM Model,The monitoring of terrestrial carbon dynamics is important in studies related with global climate change. This paper presents results of the inter-annual variability of Net Primary Productivity (NPP) from 1981 to 2000 derived using observations from NOAA-AVHRR data using Global Production Efficiency Model (GloPEM). The GloPEM model is based on physiological principles and uses the production efficiency concept| in which the canopy absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) is used with a conversion "efficiency" to estimate Gross Primary Production (GPP). NPP derived from GloPEM model over India showed maximum NPP about 3|000 gCm(-2)year(-1) in west Bengal and lowest up to 500 gCm(-2)year(-1) in Rajasthan. The India averaged NPP varied from 1|084.7 gCm(-2)year(-1) to 1|390.8 gCm(-2)year(-1) in the corresponding years of 1983 and 1998 respectively. The regression analysis of the 20 year NPP variability showed significant increase in NPP over India (r = 0.7| F = 17.53| p < 0.001). The mean rate of increase was observed as 10.43 gCm(-2)year(-1). Carbon fixation ability of terrestrial ecosystem of India is increasing with rate of 34.3 TgC annually (t = 4.18| p < 0.001). The estimated net carbon fixation over Indian landmass ranged from 3.56 PgC (in 1983) to 4.57 PgC (in 1998). Grid level temporal correlation analysis showed that agricultural regions are the source of increase in terrestrial NPP of India. Parts of forest regions (Himalayan in Nepal| north east India) are relatively less influenced over the study period and showed lower or negative correlation (trend). Finding of the study would provide valuable input in understanding the global change associated with vegetation activities as a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. 12519,2011,3,3,Spatial disaggregation of carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic based on multiple linear regression model,Detailed estimates of carbon dioxide emissions at fine spatial scales are critical to both modelers and decision makers dealing with global warming and climate change. Globally| traffic-related emissions of carbon dioxide are growing rapidly. This paper presents a new method based on a multiple linear regression model to disaggregate traffic-related CO(2) emission estimates from the parish-level scale to a 1 x 1 km grid scale. Considering the allocation factors (population density| urban area| income| road density) together| we used a correlation and regression analysis to determine the relationship between these factors and traffic-related CO(2) emissions| and developed the best-fit model. The method was applied to downscale the traffic-related CO(2) emission values by parish (i.e. county) for the State of Louisiana into 1-km(2) grid cells. In the four highest parishes in traffic-related CO(2) emissions| the biggest area that has above average CO(2) emissions is found in East Baton Rouge| and the smallest area with no CO(2) emissions is also in East Baton Rouge| but Orleans has the most CO(2) emissions per unit area. The result reveals that high CO(2) emissions are concentrated in dense road network of urban areas with high population density and low CO(2) emissions are distributed in rural areas with low population density| sparse road network. The proposed method can be used to identify the emission "hot spots" at fine scale and is considered more accurate and less time-consuming than the previous methods. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3158,2011,2,4,Spatio-temporal changes of NDVI and its relation with climatic variables in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers,The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are important water conservation areas of China. In recent years| ecological deterioration trend of the source regions caused by global climate change and unreasonable resource development increased gradually. In this paper| the spatial distribution and dynamic change of vegetation cover in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are analyzed in recent 10 years based on 1-km resolution multi-temporal SPOTVGT-DN data from 1998 to 2007. Meanwhile| the correlation relationships between air temperature| precipitation| shallow ground temperature and NDVI| which is 3x3 pixel at the center of Wudaoliang| Tuotuohe| Qumalai| Maduo| and Dari meteorological stations were analyzed. The results show that the NDVI values in these two source regions are increasing in recent 10 years. Spatial distribution of NDVI which was consistent with hydrothermal condition decreased from southeast to northwest of the source regions. NDVI with a value over 0.54 was mainly distributed in the southeastern source region of the Yellow River| and most NDVI values in the northwestern source region of the Yangtze River were less than 0.22. Spatial changing trend of NDVI has great difference and most parts in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers witnessed indistinct change. The regions with marked increasing trend were mainly distributed on the south side of the Tongtian River| some part of Keqianqu| Tongtian| Chumaer| and Tuotuo rivers in the source region of the Yangtze River and Xingsuhai| and southern Dari county in the source region of the Yellow River. The regions with very marked increasing tendency were mainly distributed on the south side of Tongtian Rriver and sporadically distributed in hinterland of the source region of the Yangtze River. The north side of Tangula Range in the source region of the Yangtze River and Dari and Maduo counties in the source region of the Yellow River were areas in which NDVI changed with marked decreasing tendency. The NDVI change was positively correlated with average temperature| precipitation and shallow ground temperature. Shallow ground temperature had the greatest effect on NDVI change| and the second greatest factor influencing NDVI was average temperature. The correlation between NDVI and shallow ground temperature in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers increased significantly with the depth of soil layer. 12537,2011,4,4,Spatio-temporal functional regression on paleoecological data,There is much interest in predicting the impact of global warming on the genetic diversity of natural populations and the influence of climate on biodiversity is an important ecological question. Since Holocene| we face many climate perturbations and the geographical ranges of plant taxa have changed substantially. Actual genetic diversity of plant is a result of these processes and a first step to study the impact of future climate change is to understand the important features of reconstructed climate variables such as temperature or precipitation for the last 15|000 years on actual genetic diversity of forest. We model the relationship between genetic diversity in the European beech ( Fagus sylvatica) forests and curves of temperature and precipitation reconstructed from pollen databases. Our model links the genetic measure to the climate curves. We adapt classical functional linear model to take into account interactions between climate variables as a bilinear form. Since the data are georeferenced| our extensions also account for the spatial dependence among the observations. The practical issues of these methodological extensions are discussed. 12867,2011,2,4,Spatio-temporal variability of snowmelt across Svalbard during the period 2000-08 derived from QuikSCAT/SeaWinds scatterometry,Significant changes in Arctic systems are underway| which are attributed to global warming. An important example is reduction in snow and ice coverage due to intensified melting in many regions. Active microwave instruments are used to detect surface melt and freeze-up based on the high sensitivity of radar backscatter to liquid water in the snow. We monitor two snowmelt parameters| the annual total of melt days and the date of summer melt onset across the archipelago of Svalbard using microwave backscatter measurements from the K(u)-band scatterometer SeaWinds onboard the QuikSCAT satellite. Our analysis covers a nine-year time span from 2000 to 2008. Meteorological data from synoptic and automatic weather stations at several locations in Svalbard are used to investigate climatologic controls on pattern and timing of snowmelt. Svalbard temperature and precipitation regimes are highly variable throughout the year due to the location of the archipelago within a zone that is characterized by the convergence of atmospheric fronts from the Arctic Ocean| Nordic seas and the Barents Sea. Accordingly| our results show pronounced regional and interannual variability in snowmelt dynamics. However| we do find a trend towards earlier summer melt onset and an increasing number of melt days per year over the nine-year period of study. Our findings agree with climate-model predictions that project increasingly warmer and wetter conditions in the Arctic. 11643,2011,4,4,Spatio-temporal variation in soil derived nitrous oxide emissions under sugarcane,Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) is a significant greenhouse gas with a global warming potential that is 300 times than that of carbon dioxide. Soil derived N(2)O emissions usually display a high degree of spatial and temporal variability because of their dependence on soil chemical and physical properties| and climate dependent environmental factors. However| there is little research that incorporates spatial dependence in the estimation of N(2)O emissions allowing for environmental factors in the same model. This study aims to examine the impact of two environmental factors (soil temperature and soil moisture) on N(2)O emissions and explore the spatial structure of N(2)O in the sub-tropical South East Queensland region of Australia. The replicated data on N(2)O emissions and soil properties were collected at a typical sugarcane land site covering 25 uniform grid points across 3600 m(2) between October 2007 and September 2008. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to model spatial dependence. Results showed that soil moisture and soil temperature appeared to have substantially different effects on N(2)O emissions after taking spatial dependence into account in the four seasons. There was a substantial variation in the spatial distribution of N(2)O emission in the different seasons. The high N(2)O emission regions were accompanied by high uncertainty and changed in varying seasons in this study site. Spatial CAR models might be more plausible to elucidate and account for the uncertainty arising from unclear variables and spatial variability in the assessment of N(2)O emissions in soils| and more accurately identify relationships with key environmental factors and help to reduce the uncertainty of the soil parameters. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12166,2011,2,4,Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought for the Island of Crete,A modified drought index| named the spatially normalized-standardized precipitation index (SN-SPI)| has been developed for assessing meteorological droughts. The SN-SPI is a variant index to the standardized precipitation index and is based on the probability of precipitation at different time scales| but it is spatially normalized for improved assessment of drought severity. Results of this index incorporate the spatial distribution of precipitation and produce improved drought warnings. This index is applied in the island of Crete| Greece| and the drought results are compared to the ones of SPI. A 30-year-long average monthly precipitation dataset from 130 watersheds of the island is used by the above indices for drought classification in terms of its duration and intensity. Bias-adjusted monthly precipitation estimates from an ensemble of 10 regional climate models were used to quantify the influence of global warming to drought conditions over the period 2010-2100. Results based on both indices (calculated for three time scales of 12| 24| and 48 months) from 3 basins in west| central| and east parts of the island show that 1) the extreme drought periods are the same (reaching 7% of time) but the intensities based on SN-SPI are lower; 2) the area covered by extreme droughts is 3% (first time scale)| 16% (second time scale)| and 25% (third time scale)| and 96% (first time scale)| 95% (second time scale)| and 80% (third time scale) based on the SN-SPI and SPI| respectively; 3) concerning the longest time scale (48 months)| more than half of the area of Crete is about to experience drought conditions during 28%| 69%| and 97% for 2010-40| 2040-70| and 2070-2100| respectively; and 4) extremely dry conditions will cover 52%| 33%| and 25% of the island for the future 90-year period using 12-| 24-| and 48-month SN-SPI| respectively. 12618,2011,2,4,Spatiotemporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia in the context of global warming,This study analyzed the temporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia (ACA) and their regional differences during 1930-2009 using monthly gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Our results showed that the annual precipitation in this westerly circulation dominated arid region is generally increasing during the past 80 years| with an apparent increasing trend (0.7 mm/10 a) in winter. The precipitation variations in ACA also differ regionally| which can be divided into five distinct subregions (I West Kazakhstan region| II East Kazakhstan region| III Central Asia Plains region| IV Kyrgyzstan region| and V Iran Plateau region). The annual precipitation falls fairly even on all seasons in the two northern subregions (regions I and II| approximately north of 45A degrees N)| whereas the annual precipitation is falling mainly on winter and spring (accounting for up to 80% of the annual total precipitation) in the three southern subregions. The annual precipitation is increasing on all subregions except the southwestern ACA (subregion V) during the past 80 years. A significant increase in precipitation appeared in subregions I and III. The long-term trends in annual precipitation in all subregions are determined mainly by trends in winter precipitation. Additionally| the precipitation in ACA has significant interannual variations. The 2-3-year cycle is identified in all subregions| while the 5-6-year cycle is also found in the three southern subregions. Besides the inter-annual variations| there were 3-4 episodic precipitation variations in all subregions| with the latest episodic change that started in the mid- to late 1970s. The precipitations in most of the study regions are fast increasing since the late 1970s. Overall| the responses of ACA precipitation to global warming are complicated. The variations of westerly circulation are likely the major factors that influence the precipitation variations in the study region. 3486,2011,2,4,Species richness| endemism| and conservation of American tree ferns (Cyatheales),Analyses of richness and endemism of Cyatheales (tree ferns) in tropical America were performed and evidence of a diversity gradient is presented. For this| the occurrence ranges of 239 species were plotted into a 5 degrees x 5 degrees grid-cell map and then analyzed using species richness and endemism indices. Here we show that species richness and endemism are not distributed randomly over the landscape| but do aggregate into defined regions of high diversity in tropical America: the northern Andes| lower Central America| upper Central America and Mexico| the Guyana Highlands| southeastern Brazil| and the Antilles. These distributional patterns are congruent with the geographical distribution of cloud forest| which in turn is determined by topography| high humidity| and persistent cloud immersion. The mountain regions of tropical America| especially the cloud forests| harbour most of the species of American Cyatheales and have high levels of habitat loss and climatic fragility. Conservation policies for Cyatheales are centred on the local use and trade of many tree fern species| but none such policies focus on cloud forest habitat loss. This makes tree ferns a critically endangered group of plants. In the face of the current environmental crisis and global climate change| the presence of Cyatheales in these regions sounds the alarm on their conservation priorities. 3357,2011,2,4,Species shifts in response to climate change: Individual or shared responses?,PUCKO| C.| B. BECKAGE (Department of Plant Biology| University of Vermont| Burlington| VT 05405)| T. PERKINS (Proctor Maple Research Center| University of Vermont| Underhill| VT 05490)| AND W. S. KEETON (Rubenstein School of Natural Resources| University of Vermont| Burlington| VT 05405). Species shifts in response to climate change: Individual or shared responses? J. Torrey Bot. Soc. 138: 156-176. 2011.-Individual species are expected to shift their distributions in response to global climate change. Species within existing communities may respond to climate change individualistically| resulting in the formation of novel communities| or may instead shift as intact communities. We examined whether montane plant communities in the northeastern United States have shifted their elevational range as intact assemblages or individualistically in response to recent regional climatic and environmental change. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) to examine changes in plant community composition and species distributions using vegetation surveys repeated five times between 1964 and 2006 across an elevational gradient (549-1158 m) on Camels Hump Mountain| Vermont| USA| in conjunction with an analysis of local climate change. We found evidence that species elevational distributions and community compositions have shifted in response to a 0.49 degrees C per decade warming. These species responses were complex and largely individualistic at some elevations| while at other elevations species in a given community tended to respond similarly. The magnitude of community compositional change was largely dependent on location with respect to the ecotone between northern hardwood and boreal forests. While climate change likely contributed to the large shifts in species within NMDS space| these shifts may also be a response to invasive earthworms at low elevations and to prolonged exposure to acid deposition at high elevations. Though we found evidence of shared species responses within communities| future species responses may become increasingly divergent as the magnitude of climate change increases causing species-specific environmental thresholds to be reached and as the synergistic effects of multiple anthropogenic perturbations rise. 11699,2011,2,4,Species turnover of amphibians and reptiles in eastern China: disentangling the relative effects of geographic distance and environmental difference,Spatial turnover of species lies at the heart of macroecology and conservation biogeography. However| our knowledge of the causes of species turnover remains poor| particularly for herpetofaunas including amphibians and reptiles. Here| using regression| variance partitioning| and hierarchical partitioning analyses| we examine the relationships of species turnover in herpetofaunas among provinces in eastern China with respect to geographic distance and environmental difference. We found that species turnover in herpetofaunas is moderately to strongly correlated with geographic distance and difference in most environmental variables examined between provinces. Geographic distance and environmental difference together explain 87.1 and 89.9% of the variance of species turnover for amphibians and reptiles| respectively. Variance partitioning analysis indicated that most variance in species turnover is explained by the joint effect of geographic distance and environmental difference. Beyond this shared variance| environmental difference is a stronger predictor of species turnover than geographic distance| particularly for reptiles. Hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that energy-related variables explained more variance in species turnover for both amphibians and reptiles| compared with water-related variables. The independent effects of water-related variables are slightly higher for amphibians than for reptiles whereas the independent effects of energy-related variables are slightly higher for reptiles than amphibians. These patterns are consistent with different ecophysiological requirements of the two taxa. Our results have important implications for predicting changes in biodiversity of herpetofaunas under climate change scenarios. Global warming will affect the immigration and local extinction of both amphibians and reptiles| and precipitation change may affect amphibians more strongly| compared with its effect on reptiles. 3180,2011,2,4,Species-specific effects of soil fauna on fungal foraging and decomposition,Decomposer fungi are primary decomposing agents in terrestrial soils. Their mycelial networks play an important role in nutrient mineralisation and distribution| but are also nutritious resources for various soil invertebrates. Global climate change is predicted to alter the diversity and community composition of these soil fauna. To understand whether changes in invertebrate species diversity are likely to affect fungal-mediated decomposition| this study compared the grazing potentials of different invertebrate taxa and functional groups. Specifically| the grazing impacts of seven invertebrate taxa on the growth and spatial distribution of six basidiomycete fungi growing from beech wood blocks in soil microcosms were explored. Wood decay rates by fungi were also compared. The consequences of grazing were both taxon- and species-specific. Generally| macro-invertebrates caused the greatest damage| while meso- and micro-invertebrates often stimulated mycelial growth. Invertebrate size| preferences and population dynamics are likely to influence grazing potentials. Effects of grazing varied between fungi| with mycelial morphology and biochemistry possibly influencing susceptibility. Heavy grazing indirectly increased fungal-mediated wood decomposition. Changes in invertebrate community composition are predicted to have consequences for fungal growth| activity and community structure in woodland soils. Abiotic climate change factors including CO(2) and temperature affect mycelial productivity directly| but the indirect effects| mediated through changes in the soil invertebrate community| may be equally important in controlling ecosystem functioning. 11885,2011,2,4,Spring Flowering Response to Climate Change between 1936 and 2006 in Alberta| Canada,In documenting biological responses to climate change| the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has used phenology studies from many parts of the world| but data from the high latitudes of North America are missing. In the present article| we evaluate climate trends and the corresponding changes in sequential bloom times for seven plant species in the central parklands of Alberta| Canada (latitude 52 degrees-57 degrees north). For the study period of 71 years (1936-2006)| we found a substantial warming signal| which ranged from an increase of 5.3 degrees Celsius (degrees C) in the mean monthly temperatures for February to an increase of 1.5 degrees C in those for May. The earliest-blooming species' (Populus tremuloides and Anemone patens) bloom dates advanced by two weeks during the seven decades| whereas the later-blooming species' bloom dates advanced between zero and six days. The early-blooming species' bloom dates advanced faster than was predicted by thermal time models| which we attribute to decreased diurnal temperature fluctuations. This unexpectedly sensitive response results in an increased exposure to late-spring frosts. 11863,2011,5,4,Spring-season changes during the Late Pleniglacial and Bolling/Allerod interstadial,Earlier spring onset and the associated extension of the growing season in high latitudes belong to the most obvious consequences of global warming. The natural dynamics of growing-season properties during past climate shifts however| are extremely difficult to reconstruct since temperature reconstructions are hardly ever seasonally resolved and the applied proxies such as chirinomid or pollen analysis are mainly sensitive to summer temperatures. Here we apply a newly developed leaf cuticle-based proxy to reconstruct growing degree-days (GOD) in a quantitative way and to estimate changes in the timing of spring onset over the last deglaciation. Cuticle analyses of fossil birch leaves preserved in lake sediments from southern Germany reveal extremely low GDD values during the Late Pleniglacial| which are rapidly increasing at the onset of the Bolling/Allerod interstadial. While temperature and GDDs show a simultaneous warming during deglaciation| a GDD decline precedes lowering of summer temperatures during the Older Dryas cooling. Later bud-burst dates support the hypothesis of a shortening the growing season during this cool pulse. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11769,2011,5,3,Stable carbon isotope patterns of marine biomarker lipids in the Arctic Ocean during Eocene Thermal Maximum 2,The middle Paleocene through early Eocene long-term gradual warming was superimposed by several transient warming events| such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2). Both events show evidence for extreme global warming associated with a major injection of carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system| but the mechanisms of carbon injection and many aspects of the environmental response are still poorly understood. In this study| we analyzed the concentration and stable carbon isotopic (delta(13)C) composition of several sulfur-bound biomarkers derived from marine photoautotrophs| deposited in the Arctic Ocean at similar to 85 degrees N| during ETM2. The presence of sulfur-bound biomarkers across this event points toward high primary productivity and anoxic bottom water conditions. The previously reported presence of isorenieratene derivatives indicates euxinic conditions in the photic zone| likely caused by a combination of enhanced primary productivity and salinity stratification. The negative carbon isotope excursion measured at the onset of ETM2 for several biomarkers| ranges between 3% and 4.5%| much larger than the similar to 1.4% recorded in marine carbonates elsewhere| suggesting substantial enhanced isotopic fractionation by the primary producers likely due to a significant rise in pCO(2). In the absence of biogenic carbonates in the ETM2 section of our core we use coeval planktonic delta(13)C from elsewhere to estimate surface water delta(13)C in the Arctic Ocean and then apply the relation between isotopic fractionation and pCO(2)| originally calibrated for haptophyte alkenones| to three selected organic biomarkers (i.e.| S-bound phytane| C(35) hopane| and a C(25) highly branched isoprenoid). This yields pCO(2) values potentially in the range of four times preindustrial levels. However| these estimates are uncertain because of a lack of knowledge on the importance of pCO(2) on photosynthetic isotopic fractionation. 3326,2011,2,4,Statistical Comparisons of Watershed-Scale Response to Climate Change in Selected Basins across the United States,In an earlier global climate-change study| air temperature and precipitation data for the entire twenty-first century simulated from five general circulation models were used as input to precalibrated watershed models for 14 selected basins across the United States. Simulated daily streamflow and energy output from the watershed models were used to compute a range of statistics. With a side-by-side comparison of the statistical analyses for the 14 basins| regional climatic and hydrologic trends over the twenty-first century could be qualitatively identified. Low-flow statistics (95% exceedance| 7-day mean annual minimum| and summer mean monthly streamflow) decreased for almost all basins. Annual maximum daily streamflow also decreased in all the basins| except for all four basins in California and the Pacific Northwest. An analysis of the supply of available energy and water for the basins indicated that ratios of evaporation to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to precipitation for most of the basins will increase. Probability density functions (PDFs) were developed to assess the uncertainty and multimodality in the impact of climate change on mean annual streamflow variability. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests showed significant differences between the beginning and ending twenty-first-century PDFs for most of the basins| with the exception of four basins that are located in the western United States. Almost none of the basin PDFs were normally distributed| and two basins in the upper Midwest had PDFs that were extremely dispersed and skewed. 12173,2011,2,3,Statistical downscaling of sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region: diagnosing the impact of climate change from the IPSL-CM4 model,The key aspect of the ocean circulation off Peru-Chile is the wind-driven upwelling of deep| cold| nutrient-rich waters that promote a rich marine ecosystem. It has been suggested that global warming may be associated with an intensification of upwelling-favorable winds. However| the lack of high-resolution long-term observations has been a limitation for a quantitative analysis of this process. In this study| we use a statistical downscaling method to assess the regional impact of climate change on the sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region as simulated by the global coupled general circulation model IPSL-CM4. Taking advantage of the high-resolution QuikSCAT wind product and of the NCEP reanalysis data| a statistical model based on multiple linear regressions is built for the daily mean meridional and zonal wind at 10 m for the period 2000-2008. The large-scale 10 m wind components and sea level pressure are used as regional circulation predictors. The skill of the downscaling method is assessed by comparing with the surface wind derived from the ERS satellite measurements| with in situ wind observations collected by ICOADS and through cross-validation. It is then applied to the outputs of the IPSL-CM4 model over stabilized periods of the pre-industrial| 2 x CO(2) and 4 x CO(2) IPCC climate scenarios. The results indicate that surface along-shore winds off central Chile (off central Peru) experience a significant intensification (weakening) during Austral winter (summer) in warmer climates. This is associated with a general decrease in intra-seasonal variability. 3159,2011,2,2,Status and barriers of advanced biofuel technologies: A review,Development of biofuels from renewable resources is critical to the sustainability of the world's economy and to slow down the global climate change. Currently| a significant amount of bioethanol and biodiesel are produced as biofuels to partially replace gasoline and diesel| respectively| in the transportation sector worldwide. However| these biofuels represent a tiny portion (<4%) of the total fuels consumed. Furthermore| bioethanol is produced predominantly from sugarcane and corn| and biodiesel from crop and plant oils. Production of these raw materials is competing for the limited arable land against food and feed production. It is not feasible to tremendously increase biofuel production using the current technologies. Therefore| it is critical to investigate advanced or 2nd generation biofuel production technologies. This article is trying to summarize the current status of the 2nd generation biofuel technologies including bioethanol from lignocellulosic materials and biodiesel from microalgae. The summary includes the descriptions of the technologies| their advantages and challenges| feedstocks for the 2nd generation biofuels| the key barriers to their commercial applications| and future perspectives of the advanced technologies. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11954,2011,3,2,STEP-A Solar Chemical Process to End Anthropogenic Global Warming. II: Experimental Results,Alternative chemical processes are needed to decrease the level of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Experimental support is presented of our STEP theory| which predicted a path to recycle and remove CO(2) at high (similar to 50%) solar efficiency. In STEP (solar thermal electrochemical production) of energetic molecules| electrolysis occurs| heated by excess and renewable thermal energy at high-temperature potentials below that of the room-temperature energy stored in the products. STEP is demonstrated in the efficient formation of metals| fuels| chlorine| and carbon capture. As one example| CO(2) is converted to solid carbon| or CO| by distinguishing sunlight that is energy sufficient to drive photovoltaic charge transfer and applying all excess energy to heat and decrease the free energy of the enodothermic CO(2) splitting electrolysis. The energy efficiency| based on chemical flow out to solar flow in| is high| at least 34%| and may reach over 50% but will depend on the extent of the solar thermal energy captured for the molten electrolysis. As another example| in an alternative to carbothermal iron production| which is responsible for 25% of worldwide industrial CO(2) emissions| iron is produced without CO(2) in solar thermal heated molten carbonate. Fe(III) (14 m) (as in the iron ore| hematite) is soluble in molten Li(2)O and Li(2)CO(3)| providing a facile path for STEP iron electrolysis. Also| water is efficiently STEP electrolyzed in molten salts to hydrogen. Finally| of relevance to bleach production and desalinization| chlorine| sodium| and magnesium are formed from the chlorides. STEP provides a different pathway for solar energy conversion| at high efficiency| and is capable of proactively removing carbon dioxide and also generating a range of useful chemicals without greenhouse gas emission. 3442,2011,5,4,Step-wise change of Asian interior climate preceding the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT),Understanding the global climate change from greenhouse to icehouse conditions at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (DOT) 34 million years ago requires climatic records from oceanic as well as continental realms of the key Late Eocene "doubthouse" period preceding this switch. Here| we report integrated stratigraphic results from well-dated Late Eocene continental mudflat to saline lake paleoenvironments of the Xining Basin (northeastern Tibetan Plateau| western China) recording regional and global change. Cyclostratigraphic analysis strongly suggests continuous dominance of the 41-kyr obliquity cycle in the whole late Eocene interval down to the base of polarity chron C18n.2n at 39 Ma with additional input of the similar to 100-kyr eccentricity cycle up to the base of chron C13r at similar to 34.7 Ma. This might imply that high-latitude climates dominated the area long before the EOT| probably related to incipient ice-volume fluctuations. Furthermore| our results reveal two paleoenvironmental deterioration steps preceding the Eocene-Oligocene Transition. The first step occurs in the top of chron C17n.ln at similar to 36.6 Ma. This age closely corresponds to (1) the high-altitude pollen appearance in chron Cl 6.2r at similar to 36.4 Ma in the same section| (2) the recently dated final retreat of the Tarim Sea in western China| and (3) a shift from precession to obliquity dominance in the Atlantic Ocean. This near co-occurrence suggests global change at this time. We hypothesize this change is related to an increase in incipient ice sheet volume leading to passing threshold conditions for the high-altitude pollen appearance and Tarim Sea retreat| finally leading to decreased moisture availability in the Xining Basin. At the second step| in the base of chron C13r at similar to 34.7 Ma. a substantial increase in clastic sedimentation rates is observed. This might relate to increased climate variability preceding the greenhouse to icehouse transition at the EOT that prevented landscapes to attain equilibrium configurations. (c) 2010 Elsevier By. All rights reserved. 12455,2011,2,4,STOCHASTIC EXTINCTION AND RUNAWAY GROWTH IN DISCRETE BIOLOGICAL MODELS,The consequences of global warming include predictions of 300|000 deaths per year| as well as the extinction of 100-500 species of birds per degree centigrade warming. Warming effects are also thought to play a role in runaway growth of other species| e.g.| the quagga mussel invasion of Lake Mead. The mechanisms underlying runaway growth or extinction are poorly understood. We investigate these mechanisms in a discrete population equation which models the effects of environmental fluctuations of the population growth rate. The model predicts extinction when E(ln(l))| the geometric mean of the population growth rate| decreases below zero| and runaway growth when E(ln(l)) > 0. A major challenge is to estimate realizations at specific generation numbers| n| during runaway growth| or extinction| type events. Thus| we our main focus is to derive dynamic bounds which estimate realizations| at each n >= 1| during the entire course of such events. These estimates are illustrated with examples. In particular| we give new insights into the dynamics of the present day ongoing Kenyan lion extinction. 12548,2011,2,4,Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity,The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events)| low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895)| 0.076 (1896-1917)| 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s| this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales. 12862,2011,4,4,Stormy Wave Analysis Based on Recorded Field Data on South-East Coasts of Queensland| Australia,A. Jafari dagger| N. Cartwright dagger and P. Nielsen| 2011. Stormy wave analysis based on recorded field data on south-east coasts of Queensland| Australia. Journal of Coastal Research| SI 64 (Proceedings of the 11th International Coastal Symposium)| 527 - 533. Szczecin| Poland| ISSN 0749-0208 Global warming has lead to a likely increase in the potential of cyclones and storm wind impacts on coastal zones. The behaviour of storm waves in the nearshore is thus one of the most important factors in carrying out risk management and mitigation processes. This paper focuses on the analysis of storm wave data collected in across surfzone during by Cyclone Hamish in 2009. The data was collected by means of a manometer tube system and were analyzed by two different method namely wave-by-wave time domain approach and frequency domain approach. The data is then used to evaluate existing empirical surfzone wave transformation formulae and provides a reliable base for developing more detailed storm wave transformation models. 3269,2011,2,4,Strategies for conservation of germplasm in endemic redwoods in the face of climate change: a review,This study reviews the various conservation strategies applied to the four redwood species| namely coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens)| Sierra redwood or giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum)| dawn redwood (Metasequoia glyptostroboides) and South American redwood or alerce (Fitzroya cupressoides)| which are endemic in the USA| China and South America| respectively. All four redwood genera belong to the family Cupressaceae; they are monospecific| share a number of common phenotypic traits| including red wood| and are threatened in their native ranges due to human activity and a changing climate. Therefore| the management objective should be to conserve representative populations of the native species with as much genetic diversity as possible for their future survival. Those representative populations exhibiting relatively high levels of genetic diversity should be selected for germplasm preservation and monitored during the conservation phase by using molecular markers. In situ and ex situ strategies for the preservation of germplasm of the redwoods are discussed in this study. A holistic in situ gene conservation strategy calls for the regeneration of a large number of diverse redwood genotypes that exhibit adequate levels of neutral and adaptive genetic variability| by generative and vegetative methods for their preservation and maintenance in their endemic locations. At the same time| it would be desirable to conserve the redwoods in new ex situ reserves| away from their endemic locations with similar as well as different environmental conditions for testing their growth and survival capacities. In addition| other ex situ strategies involving biotechnological approaches for preservation of seeds| tissues| pollen and DNA in genebanks should also be fully exploited in the face of global climate change. 12026,2011,2,4,Streamflow changes and its influencing factors in the mainstream of the Songhua River basin| Northeast China over the past 50 years,The Songhua River plays a key role in the national development of China| owing to its unique natural condition and resources. Recent changes in the streamflow in the Songhua River are important with regard to local sustainable development and management under the background of global warming and aggravating soil erosion. In order to detect changes in the streamflow| two streamflow series from 1955 to 2004 (observed at the Harbin and Jiamusi stations) in the mainstream of Songhua River basin were obtained| and methods of statistical analysis| wavelet transform| and double mass analysis were employed to analyze the data. Reasons for the changes to the streamflow are discussed with respect to natural and man-made drivers. The results show the following: (1) From 1955 to 2004| the streamflow series present obvious declining trends. (2) The streamflow series followed the pattern of a wet-dry-wet-dry cycle pattern over the past 50 years. In the mainstream of Songhua River| wet years mainly occurred during the periods of 1955-1966 and 1984-1993| while dry years mainly occurred in the 1970s and after 2000. (3) Within the 50-year scale| the streamflow series appeared in the main periods of circa 33-| 13- and 4-year| in which the 33-year periodicity is the strongest. (4) Precipitation and temperature directly influenced the streamflow in the mainstream of the basin. The discharge was positively correlated with the precipitation and negatively correlated with the temperature. In addition| human activity was another important driving factor for streamflow change. (5) In the mainstream of Songhua River basin| the influences on streamflow can be divided into three periods: 1955-1976| 1977-1997| and 1998-2004. In the first period climate change played a dominant role| and during the latter two periods human influences were enhanced significantly. 3496,2011,2,4,Stressed crops emit more methane despite the mitigating effects of elevated carbon dioxide,Recent studies using single environmental variables show that under aerobic conditions terrestrial plants can emit methane (CH(4)). However| the effects of multiple environmental factors-as components of global climate change-on aerobic CH(4) emissions have been little studied. We examined the combined effects of temperature| carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and watering regime on CH(4) emissions from six commonly cultivated crop species: faba bean| sunflower| pea| canola| barley and wheat. Plants were grown from seeds in controlled-environment growth chambers under two temperature regimes (24 degrees C day/20 degrees C night and 30 degrees C day/26 degrees C night)| two CO(2) concentrations (380 and 760 mmol mol(-1)) and two watering regimes (well watered and water stressed). Plants were grown first under 24/20 degrees C for 1 week from sowing| and then placed under experimental conditions for a further week. After the specified time| plant growth| gas exchange and CH(4) emission rates were determined. Our results revealed that higher temperature and water stress significantly enhance CH(4) emissions from plants| whereas elevated CO(2) had the opposite effect and partially reverses the promotive effects of these factors. We suggest that the despite the mitigating effects of rising atmospheric CO(2)| CH(4) emission may be higher in the face of ongoing global climate change in warmer and drier environments. 12341,2011,3,4,Study of carbon dioxide condensation in chevron plate exchangers; heat transfer analysis,The experimental investigation of carbon dioxide condensation in brazed plate heat exchangers is the main objective of this study. The current level of concern for the environment is at an all time high| therefore| it is important to look into methods and resources that lead to a cleaner and healthier future for the planet. This study details one such effort to reach this goal| focusing on condensation of carbon dioxide as a natural refrigerant in refrigeration systems. Three brazed plate heat exchangers with different geometry| each consisting of three channels| are tested. This paper focuses on the two-phase analysis| where carbon dioxide was the working fluid| flowing through the middle channel| and dynalene brine| the cooling fluid| flowed through the side channels of each geometry. Condensation of carbon dioxide occurred at saturation temperatures ranging from -17.8 degrees C to -34.4 degrees C and heat fluxes spanning 2.5-15.7 kW/m(2). An in-depth dimensional analysis was completed on the two-phase data yielding heat transfer correlations. Relationships of the two-phase heat transfer characteristics are presented| the data are compared with related studies| and conclusions are made from the two-phase data. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12374,2011,3,2,Study of DC Circuit Breaker of H(2)-N(2) Gas Mixture for High Voltage,Global warming caused by such gases as CO(2) is a subject of great concern. Automobile emissions are an especially great problem in this respect. Therefore| hybrid cars are being widely developed and used. Because hybrid cars use electric power and gasoline| their emissions of CO(2) are reduced. The electric motor of a hybrid car is driven by a battery| which has large capacity. Therefore| relays must interrupt a high DC current on switching between the electric motor and the gasoline engine| and hydrogen gas-filled relays are used for the purpose. In interruption tests in which we investigated the basic characteristics of hydrogen gas| the DC current did not reach a current-zero point. Thus| the current must be coerced to zero by using a high arc voltage. The loss coefficient and arc voltages of hydrogen are high| and we therefore performed interruption tests using a high arc voltage. Interruption tests and dielectric breakdowns test of air| pure hydrogen| and a hydrogen-nitrogen mixture indicated that an 80%-20% H(2)-N(2) mixture is the most effective. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals| Inc. Electr Eng Jpn| 174(2): 9-17| 2011; Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com). DOI 10.1002/eej.21042 12333,2011,4,4,Study of seasonal variation of winds in upper stratosphere over Hyderabad,A predictability of the stratospheric zonal winds above 38 km during the turnaround is an essential parameter for planning of the high-altitude scientific balloon flights. This information is more relevant in the case of Hyderabad balloon facility which is closer to equator and has much more unstable wind reversal patterns which appears to have changed enormously during the last decade probably in correlation with the global warming. With a majority of our flights reaching the altitudes of 38-42 km and the requirement of long float durations| a prior knowledge of wind pattern during the summer and winter turnaround seasons is highly desirable. Furthermore| the flight operation corridor for balloon flights from Hyderabad is limited to 400 km and though in the west direction there are flat lands| in all other three directions| the landscape is dotted by water bodies| reserve forests and hilly terrain| and therefore need of such a data is essential. In order to establish the climatology of the stratospheric winds and study their inter-annual variability over Hyderabad for the turnaround periods| we have made a detailed analysis of the United Kingdom Meteorological office data between 2000 and 2007| to derive average wind parameters (magnitude| direction) at different ceiling altitudes above 38 km. These results can be used only as general trend of stratospheric wind and should not be the limitation of the UKMO Data. (C) 2010 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3483,2011,4,4,STUDY ON THE MITOCHONDRIAL ACTIVITY AND MEMBRANE POTENTIAL AFTER EXPOSING LATER STAGE OOCYTES OF TWO GORGONIAN CORALS (JUNCEELLA JUNCEA AND JUNCEELLA FRAGILIS) TO CRYOPROTECTANTS,Coral reefs provide a valuable habitat for many economically valuable fish and invertebrates. However| they are in serious jeopardy| threatened by increasing over-exploitation| pollution| habitat destruction| disease and global climate change. Here| we examined the effect of cryoprotectant exposure on mitochondrial activity and membrane potential ( psi m) in coral oocytes.in order to find suitable cryoprotectants towards their successful cryopreservation. According to the No Observed Effect Concentrations (NOECs)| methanol was found to be the least toxic cryoprotectant whilst DMSO was the most toxic cryoprotectant. The results also demonstrated that there were no significant differences (p > 0.05) in ATP concentrations between Junceella juncea and Junceella fragilis after exposure to all concentrations of all cryoprotectants for 30 min. Using confocal microscopy| JC-1 (5|50|6|60-tetrachloro-1|10|3|30-tetraethyl-imidacarbocyanine iodide) staining indicated that the mitochondrial membrane potential of Junceella fragilis oocytes reduced after 1 M and 2 M methanol treatment and a loss of the mitochondrial distribution pattern and poor green fluorescence after 3M methanol treatment. Therefore| even oocytes that show no adverse effect of cryoprotectants on survival might suffer some more subtle impacts. The results obtained from this study will provide a basis for development of protocols to cryopreserve the oocytes of gorgonian corals. 11710,2011,3,3,Sugarcane| carbon sequestration and food supplies,Sugarcane growers can make disproportionately large contributions to the great global issues of carbon sequestration to combat global warming| and to the provisioning (in the broadest sense) of the burgeoning populations of Africa and S/SE Asia. The key to both is a substantial increase of Soil Organic Matter (SOM); increasing levels worldwide by one-third would deplete atmospheric CO(2) levels to near zero. Sugarcane growers can play their part through embracing trash mulching and minimum tillage; but additional field experiments are needed to define best techniques. Increased SOM will improve yields and water-use efficiencies| and reduce erosion. The ultimate development of increasing SOM and| thus| fertility is the burying of biochar| a technology that has been demonstrated (the terra preta soils) in Amazonia for over a millennium. The sugar industry is exceptionally well placed to promote the use of biochar - albeit on a scale which would probably be limited to "garden" type food crops - as it has the required expertise and "extension" staff| and the raw materials (waste cellulosic material and nutrients such as filter mud and molasses). The use of sugarcane as a biofuel seems to be successful in Brazil| but that technology is not necessarily appropriate to different socio-economic environments. Small scale charcoal producing plants| based on cane trash or bagasse| could have a major economic impact in poorer countries| and would help to prevent deforestation. Again| the sugar industry has the expertise and resources to promote such technology.
12116,2011,3,2,Surface reflectance and conversion efficiency dependence of technologies for mitigating global warming,A means of assessing the relative impact of different renewable energy technologies on global warming has been developed. All power plants emit thermal energy to the atmosphere. Fossil fuel power plants also emit CO(2) which accumulates in the atmosphere and provides an indirect increase in global warming via the greenhouse effect. A fossil fuel power plant may operate for some time before the global warming due to its CO(2) emission exceeds the warming due to its direct heat emission. When a renewable energy power plant is deployed instead of a fossil fuel power plant there may be a significant time delay before the direct global warming effect is less than the combined direct and indirect global warming effect from an equivalent output coal fired plant the "business as usual" case. Simple expressions are derived to calculate global temperature change as a function of ground reflectance and conversion efficiency for various types of fossil fuelled and renewable energy power plants. These expressions are used to assess the global warming mitigation potential of some proposed Australian renewable energy projects. The application of the expressions is extended to evaluate the deployment in Australia of current and new geo-engineering and carbon sequestration solutions to mitigate global warming. Principal findings are that warming mitigation depends strongly on the solar to electric conversion efficiency of renewable technologies| geo-engineering projects may offer more economic mitigation than renewable energy projects and the mitigation potential of reforestation projects depends strongly on the location of the projects. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3470,2011,2,3,Survival| growth and reproduction of non-indigenous Nile tilapia| Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus 1758). I. Physiological capabilities in various temperatures and salinities,The physiological tolerances of non-native fishes is an integral component of assessing potential invasive risk. Salinity and temperature are environmental variables that limit the spread of many non-native fishes. We hypothesised that combinations of temperature and salinity will interact to affect survival| growth| and reproduction of Nile tilapia| Oreochromis niloticus| introduced into Mississippi| USA. Tilapia withstood acute transfer from fresh water up to a salinity of 20 and survived gradual transfer up to 60 at typical summertime (30 degrees C) temperatures. However| cold temperature (14 degrees C) reduced survival of fish in saline waters >= 10 and increased the incidence of disease in freshwater controls. Although fish were able to equilibrate to saline waters in warm temperatures| reproductive parameters were reduced at salinities >= 30. These integrated responses suggest that Nile tilapia can invade coastal areas beyond their point of introduction. However| successful invasion is subject to two caveats: (1) wintertime survival depends on finding thermal refugia| and (2) reproduction is hampered in regions where salinities are >= 30. These data are vital to predicting the invasion of non-native fishes into coastal watersheds. This is particularly important given the predicted changes in coastal landscapes due to global climate change and sea-level rise. 12467,2011,3,4,Sustainability in the city scale to fight global warming,Cities are a hub of activity| transition and living. From the design of the infrastructure to the design of the buildings| from transportation to industry| there are lots that can be done to make a city better suited to sustainability. Yet| questions like "Is renovating a fossil city the way to go?" or "How much can be done to make a present city more sustainable?" need to be answered. The answers will be searched by selecting and examining cities around the world and in Turkey| in terms of selected indicators of sustainability in city scale. Consequently| the selected cities will be compared. 3355,2011,3,3,Sustainable Development and Energy Geotechnology - Potential Roles for Geotechnical Engineering,The world is facing unprecedented challenges related to energy resources| global climate change| material use| and waste generation. Failure to address these challenges will inhibit the growth of the developing world and will negatively impact the standard of living and security of future generations in all nations. The solutions to these challenges will require multidisciplinary research across the social and physical sciences and engineering. Although perhaps not always recognized| geotechnical engineering expertise is critical to the solution of many energy and sustainability-related problems. Hence| geotechnical engineers and academicians have opportunity and responsibility to contribute to the solution of these worldwide problems. Research will need to be extended to non-standard issues such as thermal properties of soils; sediment and rock response to extreme conditions and at very long time scales; coupled hydro-chemo-thermo-bio-mechanical processes; positive feedback systems; the development of discontinuities; biological modification of soil properties; spatial variability; and emergent phenomena. Clearly| the challenges facing geotechnical engineering in the future will require a much broader knowledge base than our traditional educational programs provide. The geotechnical engineering curricula| from undergraduate education through continuing professional education| must address the changing needs of a profession that will increasingly be engaged in alternative/renewable energy production; energy efficiency; sustainable design| enhanced and more efficient use of natural resources| waste management| and underground utilization. 12190,2011,3,2,Sustainable heating and cooling systems for agriculture,Space heating/cooling systems account for approximately 40% of the global energy consumption. Such systems contribute to global warming by emitting 4 x 10(10) MWh of heat and 3 x 10(10) tons of CO(2). There is a general understanding that the way to reduce global warming is a more efficient use of energy and increased use of renewable energy in all fields of the society. Ground-coupled heating/cooling systems| which have proven to make huge contributions in reducing energy consumption in Europe and North America| is here applied for poultry industry in Syria| as an example for the Middle East. There are e. g. 13 000 chicken farms in Syria producing 172 000 tons of meat per year. This industry employs directly almost 150 000 people. The total investments in chicken farming are 130 BSP (2 B(sic)). The annual mean air temperature in Syria is 15-18 degrees C with winter temperatures close to freezing during two months. The chickens need a temperature of 21-35 degrees C| depending on age| and the heating of all Syrian chicken plants consume 173 x 10(3) tons of coal (1196 GWh). In the summer time| the ambient air temperature in Syria could reach above 45 degrees C. The chicken farms have no cooling systems since conventional cooling system is too expensive. The elevated temperature inside the farms reduces the chicken growth and lots of chicken die of overheating. The ground temperature at 10m depth is roughly equal to the annual mean air temperature. Using the ground as a heat source means a sustainable and less expensive heating of the chicken farms. During the summer| the ground is used as a source for free cooling| i.e. used directly for cooling of the plants without any cooling machines. Current study shows the design and simulated operation of a ground-coupled heating/cooling system for a typical chicken farm in Syria. Performed national potential study showed that the implementation of such ground coupled heating and cooling systems in the Syrian poultry sector would mean increased poultry production and considerable savings in money| energy| and the environment. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 11781,2011,3,3,Targeting for energy efficiency and improved energy collaboration between different companies using total site analysis (TSA),Rising fuel prices| increasing costs associated with emissions of green house gases and the threat of global warming make efficient use of energy more and more important. Industrial clusters have the potential to significantly increase energy efficiency by energy collaboration. In this paper Sweden's largest chemical cluster is analysed using the total site analysis (TSA) method. TSA delivers targets for the amount of utility consumed and generated through excess energy recovery by the different processes. The method enables investigation of opportunities to deliver waste heat from one process to another using a common utility system. The cluster consists of 5 chemical companies producing a variety of products| including polyethylene (PE)| polyvinyl chloride (PVC)| amines| ethylene| oxygen/nitrogen and plasticisers. The companies already work together by exchanging material streams. In this study the potential for energy collaboration is analysed in order to reach an industrial symbiosis. The overall heating and cooling demands of the site are around 442 MW and 953 MW| respectively. 122 MW of heat is produced in boilers and delivered to the processes. TSA is used to stepwise design a site-wide utility system which improves energy efficiency. It is shown that heat recovery in the cluster can be increased by 129 MW| i.e. the current utility demand could be completely eliminated and further 7 MW excess steam can be made available. The proposed retrofitted utility system involves the introduction of a site-wide hot water circuit| increased recovery of low pressure steam and shifting of heating steam pressure to lower levels in a number heat exchangers when possible. Qualitative evaluation of the suggested measures shows that 60 MW of the savings potential could to be achieved with moderate changes to the process utility system corresponding to 50% of the heat produced from purchased fuel in the boilers of the cluster. Further analysis showed that after implementation of the suggested energy efficiency measures there is still a large excess of heat at temperatures of up to 137 degrees C. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12845,2011,2,4,Tasmanian coastal saltmarsh community transitions associated with climate change and relative sea level rise 1975-2009,Coastal saltmarshes are reputed to be one of the most vulnerable communities to global warming| with widespread evidence of retreat and movement of lower marsh vegetation into areas previously occupied by upper marsh vegetation in response to rising sea levels| and potential changes in community composition from changes in rainfall| temperature and wind. We undertook an investigation of decades scale change in the distributions of saltmarsh communities defined by dominant species| using historic vegetation maps| remote sensing imagery and extensive field data collection. Our study area in south-eastern Tasmania has suffered a marked increase in temperatures and wind speeds and a marked decrease in rainfall since 1975| with sea level rising at a rate of 0.8 mm per annum. We therefore tested the hypothesis that these changes would result in a shift in saltmarsh community composition towards more salt- and inundation-tolerant communities and salt scalds. Eighteen percent of the 1975 marsh was lost to direct human modification and a net 4% was lost to coastal retreat. One large marsh was cut off from the sea then burned| then reconnected with the sea. The vegetation change between 1975 and 2009 in other parts of the saltmarshes occurred in 21% of their 1975 area. Most of the community transitions were consistent with increasing aridity. Thus| our results indicate that global warming has already caused marked changes in community composition in saltmarsh in Tasmania. 3485,2011,5,4,TAXONOMIC AND ECOLOGIC PERSISTENCE ACROSS THE ONSET OF THE LATE PALEOZOIC ICE AGE: EVIDENCE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPIAN (CHESTERIAN SERIES)| ILLINOIS BASIN| UNITED STATES,The late Paleozoic ice age (LPIA) began in the Mississippian period (Visean-Serpukhovian) and is associated with a global mass extinction. This study examines hew the development of high-amplitude glacioeustasy at the start of the LPIA affected the taxonomic richness and ecologic diversity of tropical marine macro-invertebrate assemblages from the Illinois Basin (United States). Rarefaction and faunal turnover analyses reveal that regional taxonomic and guild richness persist nearly unchanged across the inferred onset of the LPIA and through multiple glacioeustatic cycles spanning a total duration of similar to 3 to 5 myr. In addition| low levels of taxonomic turnover characterize the LPIA transition and subsequent glacioeustatic cycles; 76% to 92% of pre-LPIA taxa persist into the ice age where they account for 63% to 75% of L PIA taxa. Thus| the onset of high-amplitude glacioeustasy was not a main driver of regional biotic change or extinction in the Illinois Basin at the start of the LPIA. Potential mechanisms for the regional persistence of taxonomic diversity and faunal composition despite major glacioeustasy include habitat tracking and an immigration rescue effect| where localized extinction is balanced by immigration of taxa from nearby areas. Finally| evidence from this and other studies of late Paleozoic faunal turnover suggest that persistence| not change| is the normal biotic response to high-amplitude glacioeustasy during the LPIA. 11714,2011,3,4,Technical and economic analysis of electricity generation from forest| fossil| and wood-waste fuels in a Finnish heating plant,The Finnish energy industry is subject to policy decisions regarding renewable energy production and energy efficiency. Conventional electricity generation has environmental side-effects that may cause global warming. Renewable fuels are superior because they offer near-zero net emissions. In this study| I investigated a heating mill's ability to generate electricity from forest fuels in southern Finland on a 1-year strategic decision-making horizon. I solved the electricity generation problem using optimization of the energy products and fuel mixtures based on energy efficiency and forest technology. The decision environment was complicated by the sequence-dependent procurement chains for forest fuels. The optimal product and fuel mixtures were selected by minimizing procurement costs| maximizing production revenues| and minimizing energy losses. The combinatorial complexity of the problem required the use of adaptive techniques to solve a multiple-objective linear programming system with industrial relevance. I discuss the properties of the decision-support system and methodology and illustrate pricing of electricity generation based on real industrial data. The electricity-generation| -purchase| and -sales decisions are made based on a comprehensive technical and economic analysis that accounts for procurement of local forest fuels in a holistic supply chain model. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12536,2011,3,2,Technical| economic and environmental assessment of sludge treatment wetlands,Sludge treatment wetlands (STW) emerge as a promising sustainable technology with low energy requirements and operational costs. In this study| technical| economic and environmental aspects of STW are investigated and compared with other alternatives for sludge management in small communities (< 2000 population equivalent). The performance of full-scale STW was characterised during 2 years. Sludge dewatering increased total solids (TS) concentration by 25%| while sludge biodegradation lead to volatile solids around 45% IS and DRI(24h) between 1.1 and 1.4 gO(2)/kgTS h| suggesting a partial stabilisation of biosolids. In the economic and environmental assessment| four scenarios were considered for comparison: 1) STW with direct land application of biosolids| 2) STW with compost post-treatment| 3) centrifuge with compost post-treatment and 4) sludge transport to an intensive wastewater treatment plant. According to the results| STW with direct land application is the most cost-effective scenario| which is also characterised by the lowest environmental impact. The life cycle assessment highlights that global warming is a significant impact category in all scenarios| which is attributed to fossil fuel and electricity consumption; while greenhouse gas emissions from STW are insignificant. As a conclusion| STW are the most appropriate alternative for decentralised sludge management in small communities. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12858,2011,3,4,Techniques to implement in green data centres to achieve energy efficiency and reduce global warming effects,Energy demand in data centre industry is growing rapidly as computing technology changes and Information Technology (IT) professionals seek to maximise performance of data centres. A multitude of methods have been used to estimate and quantify energy intensity. Rising energy costs| continuing concerns about global economic downturn and global warming effects has leaded ways for energy efficient data centres. The goal of computer system design has been shifted to power and energy efficiency. This paper highlights strategies and techniques that provide energy savings in data centre like reducing frequent hardware purchases| power/cooling cost reductions| green metrics| shrinking data storage| workload consolidation and reducing physical servers. 12634,2011,3,4,Techno-economic and environmental assessment of bioethanol-based chemical process: A case study on ethyl acetate,The utilization of biomass is a key technology toward sustainable development. Bioethanol can be used as a substitute for fossil-based fuel and to produce commodity chemicals| in which the latter has larger benefit returns and wider application. Therefore| switching the use of bioethanol as a feedstock of chemical processes from the conventional fossil-based one to produce large quantities of chemicals has recently received increasing attention. In this study| we investigate the potential of substituting bioethanol-based processes for fossil-based processes to produce ethyl acetate| by considering economic and environmental issues. Different technologies of producing ethyl acetate are considered. One representative fossil-based process is modeled and compared with three bioethanol-based processes| with respect to production cost and CO2 emission indicators. The results show that bioethanol-based processes have better cost saving and less global warming potential. The identification of a feasible bioethanol-based production process of ethyl acetate will largely contribute to the development of the chemical industry and help ensure the actual sustainability of such an emerging technology. (c) 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog| 2010 12772,2011,3,4,Techno-economical analysis of a thermo-chemical biofuel plant with feedstock and product flexibility under external disturbances,Biofuel is one candidate that can address the global warming and energy security challenges faced by the transportation sector. However| biofuel production is subject to unpredictable external disturbances caused by demand variation| regional instability and extreme weather. It is highly desired to design a biofuel plant such that it has operational flexibility to survive through these disturbances. Gasification based thermo-chemical conversion is one of the promising approaches: the plant can produce a variety of products including electricity| liquefied petroleum gas| gasoline| and diesel while taking almost any kind of biomass as feedstock. In this paper| technical and economic performance of thermo-chemical biofuel plants is evaluated under external disturbances| including extreme weather| market fluctuation| and policy uncertainties. Four plant configurations with varying electricity generation capacity and different in-plant hydrogen production methods (methane autothermal reforming or water-gas shifting) are considered. It has been found that by providing additional electricity production capacity and producing hydrogen via methane reforming| the biofuel plant could have the best chance to maximize profit under external disturbances. Results from this research are expected to help relevant biofuel stakeholders| i.e. investors| plant managers| and government agencies| to make key decisions with regards to investment| plant operation| as well as policy. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11913,2011,3,3,Technologies and trends in solar power and fuels,Solar radiation is the largest indigenous energy resource worldwide. It will gain a significantly more relevant role in covering the energy demand of many countries when national fuel reserves fall short and when demand increases as is expected within the next 10 years. If solar energy is transformed into heat by concentrating and absorbing the radiation| energy can be stored easily. Thermal energy from mirror fields that focus solar radiation not only is able to generate electricity but also can be used to generate storable heat| to desalinate salt water or to synthesise fuels from water and carbon dioxide to store| transport or use them on-site. The application of concentrated solar radiation as a primary energy source can help to decarbonise electricity generation and many other sectors to keep the chance of staying within the 2 degrees C goal for limiting the effects of global warming. The aim of the present contribution is to give an overview on the state-of-the art of technologies for solar thermal power production and fuel production and to describe the status and outlook of commercial projects and perspectives of market development. 11588,2011,5,4,Teleconnections in a warmer climate: the pliocene perspective,Migrations toward altered sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Indo-Pacific region are present in the recent observational record and in future global warming projections. These SSTs are in the form of "permanent" El Nio-like (herein termed "El Padre") and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like patterns. The Early Pliocene Warm Period| which bears similarity to future warming projections| may have also exhibited these Indo-Pacific SST patterns| as suggested by regional terrestrial paleo-climatic data and general circulation model studies. The ability to corroborate this assessment with paleo-data reconstructions is an advantage of the warm Pliocene period that is not afforded by future warming scenarios. Thus| the Pliocene period provides us with a warm-climate perspective and test bed for understanding potential changes to future atmospheric interactions given these altered SST states. This study specifically assesses how atmospheric teleconnections from El Padre/IOD SST patterns are generated and propagate to create the regional climate signals of the Pliocene period| as these signals may be representative of future regional climatic changes as well. To do this| we construct a holistic diagnostic rubric that allows us to examine atmospheric teleconnections| both energetically and dynamically| as produced by a general circulation model. We incorporate KE'| a diagnostic adapted from the eddy kinetic energy generation field| to assess the available energy transferred to these teleconnections. Using this methodology| we found that relative to our Modern Control experiments| weaker atmospheric teleconnections prevail under warm Pliocene conditions| although pathways of propagation still appear directed toward the southwestern United States from our tropical Pacific sector forcing. Propagation directly emanating from the Indian Ocean forcing sector appears to be largely blocked| although indirect teleconnective pathways appear traversing the Asian continent toward the North Pacific. The changes in the atmospheric circulation of Indian Ocean region in response to the underlying specified SST forcing (and indicated by Pliocene paleo-data) may have a host of implications for energy transfer out of and into the region| including interactions with the Asian jet stream and changes to the seasonal monsoon cycle. These interactions warrant further study in both past and future warm climate scenarios. 3255,2011,2,4,Temperature Alters the Relative Abundance and Population Growth Rates of Species Within the Dendroctonus frontalis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Community,Temperature has strong effects on metabolic processes of individuals and demographics of populations| but effects on ecological communities are not well known. Many economically and ecologically important pest species have obligate associations with other organisms; therefore| effects of temperature on these species might be mediated by strong interactions. The southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann) harbors a rich community of phoretic mites and fungi that are linked by many strong direct and indirect interactions| providing multiple pathways for temperature to affect the system. We tested the effects of temperature on this community by manipulating communities within naturally infested sections of pine trees. Direct effects of temperature on component species were conspicuous and sometimes predictable based on single-species physiology| but there were also strong indirect effects of temperature via alteration of species interactions that could not have been predicted based on autecological temperature responses. Climatic variation| including directional warming| will likely influence ecological systems through direct physiological effects as well as indirect effects through species interactions. 12661,2011,2,4,Temperature and precipitation variability over Euro-near East Asia,The main objective of this study was to present trends in different indices of daily and monthly extreme temperature and precipitation and comparison of mean temperature and precipitation variations for selected meteorological stations in Turkey (Kandilli and Bursa) and Saudi Arabia (Medina and Dhahran). The effects of Saudi Arabia climate change and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the variation of these parameters were analysed. In recent years| there have been numerous studies of trends in extreme temperature| heat island effects and precipitation and temperature indices from around the world. This study presents a long-term analysis of air temperature and precipitation in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. One dimensional continuous wavelet and discrete wavelet packets were used to study variations in air temperature and precipitation within the study areas for the sub-period 1983-1998. The temperature indices were computed from daily and monthly maximum| minimum and mean air temperature values for selected stations in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. A set of eight temperature indices was selected for this study. The precipitation indices were computed from daily and monthly rainfall rate for all stations in the two countries. Two precipitation indices were selected to analyse the effects of micro-| meso- and large-scale fluctuations. Indices change significantly as the climatic dynamics change from one season to another. Wavelet techniques are capable of revealing various aspects of data that allow investigation of climate dynamics and global warming. In conclusion| some similarities were defined between seasonal temperature values in Kandilli and Medina| and the negative role of positive NAO values on air temperature variations.
11623,2011,2,3,Temperature and Resource Availability May Interactively Affect Over-Wintering Success of Juvenile Fish in a Changing Climate,The predicted global warming may affect freshwater systems at several organizational levels| from organism to ecosystem. Specifically| in temperate regions| the projected increase of winter temperatures may have important effects on the over-winter biology of a range of organisms and especially for fish and other ectothermic animals. However| temperature effects on organisms may be directed strongly by resource availability. Here| we investigated whether over-winter loss of biomass and lipid content of juvenile roach (Rutilus rutilus) was affected by the physiologically relatively small (2-5 degrees C) changes of winter temperatures predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)| under both natural and experimental conditions. This was investigated in combination with the effects of food availability. Finally| we explored the potential for a correlation between lake temperature and resource levels for planktivorous fish| i.e.| zooplankton biomass| during five consecutive winters in a south Swedish lake. We show that small increases in temperature (+2 degrees C) affected fish biomass loss in both presence and absence of food| but negatively and positively respectively. Temperature alone explained only a minor part of the variation when food availability was not taken into account. In contrast to other studies| lipid analyses of experimental fish suggest that critical somatic condition rather than critical lipid content determined starvation induced mortality. Our results illustrate the importance of considering not only changes in temperature when predicting organism response to climate change but also food-web interactions| such as resource availability and predation. However| as exemplified by our finding that zooplankton over-winter biomass in the lake was not related to over-winter temperature| this may not be a straightforward task. 3380,2011,2,4,Temperature and salinity tolerance of Mesopodopsis africana O. Tattersall in the freshwater-deprived St. Lucia Estuary| South Africa,Mesopodopsis africana is a key species in the St. Lucia Estuary| Africa's largest estuarine lake. This system is currently undergoing an unprecedented crisis due to freshwater deprivation. A reversed salinity gradient has persisted with hypersaline conditions (> 300) occurring in the upper regions of the estuarine lake. In the context of climate change| rising temperatures will not only push the thermal tolerance limits of estuarine organisms| but increased evaporation from this lake's large surface area will lead to further salinity increases. The present study aims to determine the temperature and salinity tolerance of M. africana| both through in situ studies and the use of laboratory experiments. Results indicate that M. africana is a broad euryhaline species. Mysids were recorded at salinity levels ranging from 2.55 to 64.5 in situ. While experiments revealed a narrower salinity tolerance| acclimation resulted in a significant increase in the tolerance range of this species. It is probable| however| that slower acclimation times may increase survival rates even further| particularly in the higher salinity treatments. M. africana was especially tolerant of the lower salinity levels. In the 20 degrees C acclimation experiment| LS(50) at 1 and 2.5 was only reached after 8 and > 168 h| respectively. Survival at 10 and 40 degrees C was negligible at all salinity levels. This concurs with field results which documented mysids at temperatures ranging from 16.2 to 30.9 degrees C. Salinity and temperature increases associated with global climate change may| therefore| have significant implications for these mysid populations| with cascading effects on the higher trophic levels which they support. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12109,2011,2,4,Temperature effects on oxygen thresholds for hypoxia in marine benthic organisms,The effect of warming on the oxygen requirements and the survival of benthic organisms under hypoxia was tested using a meta-analysis of published results of experiments evaluating the effects of temperature on the median lethal time and median lethal concentration of benthic macrofauna under hypoxia. The meta-analysis confirmed that survival times under hypoxia were reduced by on average 74% and that median lethal concentration increased by on average 16% when marine benthic organisms were exposed to warmer temperatures. Warming reduced survival times of marine benthic macrofauna under hypoxia by a median of 3.95 +/- 1.67 h degrees C-1 and increased the oxygen thresholds for hypoxia-driven mortality by a median of 1.02 +/- 0.15% saturation degrees C-1 or 0.07 +/- 0.01 mg O(2) L-1 degrees C-1. The corresponding Q(10) values averaged 3.01 +/- 0.29 for the median survival time and 2.09 +/- 0.20 for the median lethal oxygen concentration. Use of these Q(10) values predicts that the 4 degrees C warming expected during the 21st century will lead to survival times 35.6% lower under hypoxia and that the threshold oxygen concentrations for high mortality to occur will increase by| on average| 25.5% if bottom water temperature increased by 4 degrees C. Hence| ocean warming is expected to increase the vulnerability of benthic macrofauna to reduced oxygen concentrations and expand the area of coastal ecosystems affected by hypoxia. 3446,2011,2,4,Temperature effects on the microscopic haploid stage development of Laminaria ochroleuca and Sacchoriza polyschides| kelps with contrasting life histories,Kelp forests are one of the most diverse and productive ecosystems worldwide. Global climate change and human exploitation threaten the stability of many of these ecosystems. In this study we compare differences in temperature responses during the microscopic haploid stage development between two kelp species in order to test if the annual Saccorhiza polyschides outperforms the perennial Laminaria ochroleuca at the northern limit of range distribution of L. ochroleuca| in Northern Brittany. Germination and mortality| sex ratio| fecundity and reproduction were measured in culture for the two species and under three different temperatures (10| 15 and 25 degrees C). An effect of temperature was found for all traits except the sex ratio. Both species showed no ability to develop gametophytes at the highest temperature of 25 degrees C and were more tolerant to lower temperatures. S. polyschides showed higher germination rate| higher fecundity and lower mortality than L. ochroleuca during the period of the experiment. In addition| its gametophytes developed earlier than those of L. ochroleuca| a competitive advantage found in all temperature conditions. Germination rate| mortality and fecundity were significantly different between the two species. In addition| the two species showed a structural difference in the development of microscopic stages| with S. polyschides gametophytes occupying a larger area| which is suggested to result in a greater adhesion capacity. In conclusion| the microscopic stage of the annual species S. polyschides had a significant advantage in fitness compared to the perennial L. ochroleuca. This annual opportunistic species may outcompete L. ochroleuca| at least in Brittany| the study region| corresponding to its northern limit| in areas where they share habitat. 12055,2011,3,2,Temperature Effects on the Removal of Potential HFC Replacements| CF(3)CH(2)CH(2)OH and CF(3)(CH(2))(2)CH(2)OH| Initiated by OH Radicals,The gas-phase kinetic coefficients of OH radicals with two primary fluorinated alcohols| CF(3)CH(2)CH(2)OH (k(1)) and CF(3)(CH(2))(2)CH(2)OH (k(2))| potential replacements of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)| are reported here as a function of temperature (T = 263-358 K) for the first time. k(1)| and k(2) (together referred as k(i)) were measured under pseudo-first-order conditions with respect to the initial OH concentration using the pulsed laser photolysis/laser induced fluorescence technique. The observed temperature dependence of k(i) (in cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) is described by the following Arrhenius expressions: k(1)(T) = (2.82 +/- 1.28) x 10(-12) exp\{-(302 +/- 139)/T\} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and k(2)(T) = (1.20 +/- 0.73) x 10(-11) exp\{-(425 +/- 188)/T\} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The uncertainties in the Arrhenius parameters are at a 95% confidence level (+/- 2 sigma). Uncertainties in k(i)(T) include both statistical and systematic errors. Activation energies were (2.5 +/- 1.2) kJ/mol and (3.6 +/- 1.6) kJ/mol for the OH-reaction with CF(3)CH(2)CH(2)OH and CF(3)(CH(2))(2)CH2OH| respectively. The global lifetime (tau) at 275 K for CF(3)CH(2)CH(2)OH and CF(3)(CH(2))(2)CH(2)OH due to the OH-reaction was estimated to be ca. 2 weeks and 5 days| respectively. The reported Arrhenius parameters can be used in 3D models that take into account the geographical region and season of emissions for estimating a matrix of instantaneous lifetimes. As a consequence of the substitution of the -CH(3) group by a -CH(2)OH group in HFCs| such as CF(3)CH(2)CH(3) and CF(3)(CH(2))(2)CH(3)| the tropospheric lifetime with respect to the OH reaction is significantly shorter and| since their radiative forcing is similar| global warming potentials of CF(3)CH(2)CH(2)OH and CF(3)(CH(2))(2)CH(2)OH are negligible. Therefore| CF(3)CH(2)CH(2)OH and CF(3)(CH(2))(2)CH(2)OH seem to be suitable alternatives to HFCs.
3452,2011,4,4,Temperature reconstruction (1750-2008) from Dahurian larch tree-rings in an area subject to permafrost in Inner Mongolia| Northeast China,May-September temperatures were reconstructed for the past 250 yr based on Dahurian larch Larix gmelinii Rupr. growing in permafrost region of Northeast. China. The reconstruction accounts for 39.3% of the actual temperature variance over the period 1958-2008. The reconstruction captured 3 relatively cold periods in 1847-1852| 1861-1866 and 1935-1941; 2 relatively warm periods in 1874-1879 and 2001-2008; and a persistent warming trend since the mid-20th century. The long-term changes in temperature documented here correspond well with regional temperature change from observational records| other global and regional proxy-based temperature reconstructions| and documented changes in regional permafrost. Thus| valuable information might be preserved in our reconstruction about local- to regional-scale climatic variation during the past 2.5 centuries. 12124,2011,2,4,Temperature Tolerance and Stress Proteins as Mechanisms of Invasive Species Success,Invasive species are predicted to be more successful than natives as temperatures increase with climate change. However| few studies have examined the physiological mechanisms that theoretically underlie this differential success. Because correlative evidence suggests that invasiveness is related to the width of a species' latitudinal range| it has been assumed but largely untested - that range width predicts breadth of habitat temperatures and physiological thermotolerances. In this study| we use empirical data from a marine community as a case study to address the hypotheses that (1) geographic temperature range attributes are related to temperature tolerance| leading to greater eurythermality in invasive species| and (2) stress protein expression is a subcellular mechanism that could contribute to differences in thermotolerance. We examined three native and six invasive species common in the subtidal epibenthic communities of California| USA. We assessed thermotolerance by exposing individuals to temperatures between 14 degrees C and 31 degrees C and determining the temperature lethal to 50% of individuals (LT(50)) after a 24 hour exposure. We found a strong positive relationship between the LT(50) and both maximum habitat temperatures and the breadth of temperatures experience across the species' ranges. In addition| of the species in our study| invasives tended to inhabit broader habitat temperature ranges and higher maximum temperatures. Stress protein expression may contribute to these differences: the more thermotolerant| invasive species Diplosoma listerianum expressed higher levels of a 70-kDa heat-shock protein than the less thermotolerant| native Distaplia occidentalis for which levels declined sharply above the LT(50). Our data highlight differences between native and invasive species with respect to organismal and cellular temperature tolerances. Future studies should address| across a broader phylogenetic and ecosystem scope| whether this physiological mechanism has facilitated the current success of invasive species and could lead to greater success of invasives than native species as global warming continues. 12411,2011,2,2,Temperature trends at the Mauna Loa observatory| Hawaii,Observations at the Mauna Loa Observatory| Hawaii| established the systematic increase of anthropogenic CO(2) in the atmosphere. For the same reasons that this site provides excellent globally averaged CO(2) data| it may provide temperature data with global significance. Here| we examine hourly temperature records| averaged annually for 1977-2006| to determine linear trends as a function of time of day. For night-time data (22:00 to 06:00 LST (local standard time)) there is a near-uniform warming of 0.040 degrees C yr(-1). During the day| the linear trend shows a slight cooling of -0.014 degrees C yr(-1) at 12:00 LST (noon). Overall| at Mauna Loa Observatory| there is a mean warming trend of 0.021 degrees C yr(-1). The dominance of night-time warming results in a relatively large annual decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) of -0.050 degrees C yr(-1) over the period 1977-2006. These trends are consistent with the observed increases in the concentrations of CO(2) and its role as a greenhouse gas (demonstrated here by first-order radiative forcing calculations)| and indicate the possible relevance of the Mauna Loa temperature measurements to global warming. 12426,2011,2,4,Temperature-dependent effect of filamentous cyanobacteria on Daphnia magna life history traits,Filamentous cyanobacteria are unsuitable food for Daphnia due to their poor manageability| poor nutritional value and| in some cases| toxicity. As the strength of harmful effects of cyanobacteria on filter-feeding zooplankton is temperature dependent| the global warming scenarios for eutrophic lakes in temperate zone might include an escalated suppression of Daphnia populations caused by the presence of cyanobacterial filaments. To test this assumption| we conducted life-table experiments with four clones of Daphnia magna fed either a green alga Scenedesmus obliquus or a non-toxic strain of filamentous cyanobacteria Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in two temperatures (20 degrees C and 24 degrees C). Key life history parameters of Daphnia. i.e.| age and size at first reproduction| fecundity| and individual growth rate| were measured. Both food and temperature significantly affected Daphnia performance| however| the effect of interaction of these two factors was ambiguous and highly genotype-dependent. We conclude that the temperature increase within the studied range will not necessarily| strengthen the suppression of Daphnia growth by filamentous cyanobacteria| but may affect clonal selection within population of Daphnia. thus possibly triggering microevolutionary changes within affected populations. 12354,2011,2,4,Temperature-Driven Regime Shifts in the Dynamics of Size-Structured Populations,Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood| hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here| we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates| reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature| the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence| maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations| global warming may increase competition| favor smaller size classes| and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics. 12566,2011,2,4,Temporal changes in soil organic C under Mediterranean shrublands and grasslands: impact of fire and drought,Forest areas have increased in the Mediterranean basin over the last two decades| due to the abandonment of agriculture. This and the occurrence of intense drought periods have led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of fires. Fire and drought can increase short-term soil organic C accumulation as a result of increased plant residues. In this study| we examined the changes in the soil organic C and the effects of fire and drought during a 12-year period in two Mediterranean grasslands and a shrubland. Thus| we established 6 plots for each of the three vegetation type and we set 18 experimental fires. Soils were sampled 3 days| 9 months| 6 years and 12 years after the fires and were analyzed for organic C. We used the RothC-26.3 model to help interpret the changes we observed. Three days after the fire| the amount of organic C was higher in burned plots than in unburned plots down to a depth of 5 cm. This was true in all plant communities under study and was probably due to burned plant deposition after the fires. However| these differences disappeared in the following years. In some cases| organic C from burned and unburned plots showed a large increase between years 6 and 12| which coincided with an extended 4-year drought period. Our results indicate that in Mediterranean shrublands and mixed shrub-grasslands the influence of drought periods could produce transient pulses of C that are much larger than the pulses produced by fire. The pulses of C caused by drought should be considered when studying the soil organic C dynamics in the frame of global warming. 12499,2011,2,4,Temporal differences across a bio-geographical boundary reveal slow response of sub-littoral benthos to climate change,The English Channel is located at the biogeographical boundary between the northern Boreal and southern Lusitanian biozones and therefore represents an important area to study the effects of global warming on marine organisms. While the consequences of climatic change in the western English Channel have been relatively well documented for fish| plankton and inter-tidal benthic communities| data highlighting the same effects on the distribution of sub-littoral benthic organisms does| to date| not exist. The present study resurveyed a subset of sites originally surveyed from 1958 to 1959 along the UK coast of the English Channel. The main aims of this resurvey were to describe the present status of benthic communities and to investigate potential temporal changes| in particular distributional changes in western stenothermal 'cold' water and southern Lusitanian 'warm' water species. The increase in water temperature observed since the historic survey was predicted to have caused a contraction in the distribution of cold water species and an extension in the distribution of warm water species. The temporal comparison did not show any clear broad-scale distributional changes in benthic communities consistent with these predictions. Nevertheless| 2 warm water species| the sting winkle Ocenebra erinacea and the introduced American slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata| did show range extensions and increased occurrence| possibly related to climatic warming. Similarly| warm water species previously not recorded by the historic survey were found. The absence of broad-scale temporal differences in sub-tidal communities in response to climatic warming has been reported for other areas and may indicate that these communities respond far more slowly to environmental changes compared to plankton| fish and inter- tidal organisms. 12083,2011,3,3,Temporal flexibility of permit trading when pollutants are correlated,It is now accepted that climate change is due to the cumulative and joint effect of multiple atmospheric trace constituents. The importance of adopting a comprehensive approach to global warming that would account for multiple interacting pollutants is increasingly recognized. In this paper we propose to extend the analysis of intertemporal permit trading to a framework encompassing multiple correlated pollutants. In doing so our aim is to assess the consequence of providing "when flexibility" to participants in a pollution market scheme with respect to the timing of use of their permits. In the same manner as local pollution hotspots have been identified as potential drawbacks of allowing intra-regional trade| temporal flexibility has the potential to induce a type of "temporal hotspot" of pollution that could undermine the efficiency of intertemporal trading schemes especially when the stock of a particular pollution induces damage in itself but also impacts on the accumulation of another detrimental pollution stock. In a first step| we assess the impact of various types of correlations (technological and physical) on the socially optimal accumulation of regional and global pollutants. We illustrate that even in the case of a linear damage function the regional stocks may have ambiguous impacts on the global stock. In a second step| we show that it is possible for a global benevolent regulator to have recourse to a set of intertemporal trading schemes to induce individual agents to take socially optimal decisions over time. One requirement is to implement a set of time-dependent intertemporal trading rates. We also analyze the impact on pollutants accumulation of implementing non-optimal intertemporal trading rates. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12717,2011,2,4,Temporal stability of Symbiodinium phylotype in scleractinian coral Galaxea fascicularis from a tropical fringing reef in the South China Sea,Symbiodinium sp. occurs in a symbiotic association with various marine invertebrates| including the scleractinian corals. Understanding the flexibility and specificity in coral-algal symbiosis can have important implications for predicting the future of coral reefs in the era of global climate change. In the present study| we conducted Symbiodinium phylotype analysis| based on polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP)| in the scleractinian coral| Galaxea fascicularis| from a tropical fringing reef in Hainan Island| over a 1-yr period. Our results showed that Galaxea fascicularis could associate with Symbiodinium clade C and D either individually or simultaneously. However| during the sampling period| the Symbiodinium phylotype did not change significantly in the scleractinian coral Galaxea fascicularis| although the seawater temperature decreased sharply in the winter season. This study further suggests that the shift in Symbiodinium communities in response to seasonally fluctuating environments might not be a universal feature of coral-algal associations. 12387,2011,2,4,Temporal variation of accumulation rates on a natural salt marsh in the 20th century - The impact of sea level rise and increased inundation frequency,Salt marshes are potentially threatened by sea level rise if sediment supply is unable to balance the rising sea. A rapid sea level rise is one of the pronounced effects of global warming and global sea level is at present rising at an elevated rate of about 3.4 mm y(-1) on average. This increasing rate of sea level rise should make it possible to study the effect of rapidly rising sea level on salt marsh accumulation. However| such an understanding is generally hampered by lack of available data with sufficient precision. Here we present a high-precision dataset based on detailed radiometric measurements of (137)Cs in 10 sediment cores retrieved at a natural and unmanaged micro tidal salt marsh. Two distinct (137)Cs-peaks were found in all cores| one peak corresponding to the 1963-maximum caused by testing of nuclear weapons in the atmosphere and the other to the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Salt marsh accretion has generally kept pace with sea level rise since 1963 but comparison of the accumulation rates of minerogenic material in the period 1963-1986 and 1986-2003 revealed a slight decrease in accumulation with time in spite of an observed increase in inundation frequency. The observed decrease in sediment deposition is significant and gives reason for concern as it may be the first sign of a sedimentation deficiency which could be threatening this and other salt marshes in the case of a rapidly rising sea level. Our work demonstrates that the assumption of a constant relationship between salt marsh inundation and sediment deposition is not necessarily valid| even for a salt marsh that receives most of its allocthonous sediment from the adjacent sea. The apparent decrease in sediment deposition indicates that the basic assumption of sufficient sediment supply used in contemporary models dealing with salt marsh accretion is most probably not valid in the present case study and it may well be that this is also the case for many other salt marshes| especially if sea level continues to rise rapidly as indicated by some climate change scenarios. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11881,2011,4,4,The "Morning Glory" Project: A Papua New Guinea-Queensland Australia Undersea Freshwater Pipeline,Australia's so-called "Dead Heart|" its hot arid interior landscape| can be brought into irrigated agricultural production with the importation of extracontinental freshwater supplies originating in Papua New Guinea. Despite Queensland's La Nina-caused historic and costly 2010 to 2011 river flooding induced| in great part by tropical cyclone Yasi| its westernmost torrid region is classed as arid| currently almost without any irrigation agriculture present. Freshwater importation from Papua New Guinea's Fly River via an undersea pipeline mostly skirting the Torres Strait could increase the value of Queensland's little-used dryland Outback and| perhaps| establish new overseas markets in Asia for exported agricultural products. An induced perennial Diamantina River could replenish groundwater recharge regions (Great Artesian Basin) and convert Lake Eyre to a permanent lake of slightly brackish water. Irrigated eucalyptus tree plantations might serve| in part| to counter some Earthly global warming. The Torres Strait Islanders will benefit economically as well as other social groups on the mainland of Papua New Guinea. Here we examine closely some of the technical aspects of a Papua New Guinea-Queensland (PNG-QLD) Undersea Freshwater Pipeline Macroproject (UFPM) installation. We offer a choice of two routings for the PNG-QLD UFPM (Case A) while at the same time making clear our informed preference. 12070,2011,2,4,The 10 Australian ecosystems most vulnerable to tipping points,We identify the 10 major terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia most vulnerable to tipping points| in which modest environmental changes can cause disproportionately large changes in ecosystem properties. To accomplish this we independently surveyed the coauthors of this paper to produce a list of candidate ecosystems| and then refined this list during a 2-day workshop. The list includes (1) elevationally restricted mountain ecosystems| (2) tropical savannas| (3) coastal floodplains and wetlands| (4) coral reefs| (5) drier rainforests| (6) wetlands and floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin| (7) the Mediterranean ecosystems of southwestern Australia| (8) offshore islands| (9) temperate eucalypt forests| and (10) salt marshes and mangroves. Some of these ecosystems are vulnerable to widespread phase-changes that could fundamentally alter ecosystem properties such as habitat structure| species composition| fire regimes| or carbon storage. Others appear susceptible to major changes across only part of their geographic range| whereas yet others are susceptible to a large-scale decline of key biotic components| such as small mammals or stream-dwelling amphibians. For each ecosystem we consider the intrinsic features and external drivers that render it susceptible to tipping points| and identify subtypes of the ecosystem that we deem to be especially vulnerable. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12569,2011,3,2,The absorption rate of CO(2)/SO(2)/NO(2) into a blended aqueous AMP/ammonia solution,The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that human activities result in the production of greenhouse gases (CO(2) (4)CH N(2)O and CFCs)| which significantly contribute to global warming| one of the most serious environmental problems. Under these circumstances| most nations have shown a willingness to suffer economic burdens by signing the Kyoto Protocol| which took effect from Februaiy 2005. Therefore| an innovative technology for the simultaneously removal carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2))| which are discharged in great quantities from fossil fuel-fired power plants and incineration facilities| must be developed to reduce these economical burdens. In this study| a blend of AMP and NH(3) was used to achieve high absorption rates for CO(2)| as suggested in several publications. The absorption rates of CO(2) SO(2) and NO(2) into aqueous AMP and blended AMP+NH(3) solutions were measured using a stirred-cell reactor at 293| 303 and 313 K. The reaction rate constants were determined from the measured absorption rates. The effect of adding NH(3) to enhance the absorption characteristics of AMP was also studied. The performance of the reactions was evaluated under various operating conditions. From the results| the reactions with SO(2) and NO(2) into aqueous AMP and AMP+NH(3) solutions were classified as instantaneous reactions. The absorption rates increased with increasing reaction temperature and NH(3) concentration. The reaction rates of 1| 3 and 5 wt% NH(3) blended with 30 wt% AMP solution with respect to CO(2)/SO(2)|/NO(2) at 313 K were 6.05 similar to 8.49x 10(-6)| 7.16-104.1 x 10(-6) and 8.02 similar to 12.0x 10(-6) kmol m(-2) s(-1) respectively. These values were approximately 32.3-38.7% higher than with aqueous AMP solution alone. The rate of the simultaneous absorption of CO(2)/SO(2)/NO| into aqueous AMP+NH3 solution was 3.83-4.87 x 10-6 kmol m(-2) s(-1) at 15 kPa| which was an increase of 15.0-16.9% compared to 30 wt% AMP solution alone. This may have been caused by the NH(3)| solution acting as an alternative for CO(2)/SO(2)/NO(2) controls from flue gas due to its high absorption capacity and fast absorption rate. 3226,2011,4,4,The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors,Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However| the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here| I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I found that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such| an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.
12151,2011,2,2,The air we breathe: three vital respiratory gases and the red blood cell: oxygen| nitric oxide| and carbon dioxide,NO is a key mediator of hypoxic vasodilation| but the precise role of RBC Hb remains controversial. In addition to established theories that depend on RBC uptake| delivery| and discharge of NO or its metabolites| an alternative hypothesis based on RBC permeability is suggested. NO depletion by free Hb may account for several clinical features seen during intravascular hemolysis or during deliberate infusion of Hb solutions used as RBC substitutes. CO(2) released by tissues triggers oxygen release through a series of well-coordinated reactions centered on the Band 3 metabolon. While RBC carbonic anhydrase and the Band 3 anion exchanger are central to this process| there is surprisingly little research on the kinetics of CO(2) clearance by transfusion. The three RBC gases are directly related to the three principal gases of Earth's atmosphere. Human fossil fuel consumption dumps 90 million metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere annually. Increasing CO(2) levels are linked to global warming| melting Arctic ice| rising sea levels| and climate instability. Just as individual cells depend on balance of the three vital gases| so too will their balance determine survival of life on Earth. 12645,2011,5,4,The amplifying effects of humans on fire regimes in temperate rainforests in western Patagonia,During European colonization and settlement of southern hemisphere temperate ecosystems| historical fire regimes were often dramatically altered by either burning vast areas to create farmland| or reducing fire frequencies by suppressing fires or by eliminating aboriginal populations that formerly set fires. To determine the historical range of variability of wildfire and the potential human influences on wildfire activity in temperate rainforests of western Patagonia| we used tree rings to reconstruct fire history over the past ca. 400 years. Over a 6 degrees latitudinal range| we examined spatiotemporal changes in fire history and compared it to ethnohistorical evidence of human activities. Time series of fire years were developed from fire-scars at 27 sites for comparison with a priori defined periods of land use in each of six areas of homogeneous land-use history. We also examined the influence of climate variability to discriminate the relative roles of human ignitions and decadal-scale climate variability on fire activity. Fires were relatively common in the forest-bog habitats sampled in our study| at least two centuries prior to any likely impact from Euro-Chilean settlers| implying that fires set by the indigenous peoples in this rainforest climate were much more common (and sometimes even widespread) than previously known. Our results also show that coincident with Euro-Chilean settlement| fire regimes shifted into long-lasting regimes of substantially higher fire frequency. However| decadal-scale climate variability| also clearly was a driver of shifts in fire regimes| and the second half of the 20th century has been a time of increased temperatures and drought throughout the region. Overall| our findings indicate that although in both pre-historic and modern times climate variability is the dominant control on years of widespread fires| aboriginals and Euro-Chilean settlers have amplified fire activity (particularly during the 20th-21st centuries) and shifted the region's fire regimes to new behaviors. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11986,2011,3,4,The biogeochemistry of bioenergy landscapes: carbon| nitrogen| and water considerations,The biogeochemical liabilities of grain-based crop production for bioenergy are no different from those of grain-based food production: excessive nitrate leakage| soil carbon and phosphorus loss| nitrous oxide production| and attenuated methane uptake. Contingent problems are well known| increasingly well documented| and recalcitrant: freshwater and coastal marine eutrophication| groundwater pollution| soil organic matter loss| and a warming atmosphere. The conversion of marginal lands not now farmed to annual grain production| including the repatriation of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and other conservation set-aside lands| will further exacerbate the biogeochemical imbalance of these landscapes| as could pressure to further simplify crop rotations. The expected emergence of biorefinery and combustion facilities that accept cellulosic materials offers an alternative outcome: agricultural landscapes that accumulate soil carbon| that conserve nitrogen and phosphorus| and that emit relatively small amounts of nitrous oxide to the atmosphere. Fields in these landscapes are planted to perennial crops that require less fertilizer| that retain sediments and nutrients that could otherwise be transported to groundwater and streams| and that accumulate carbon in both soil organic matter and roots. If mixed-species assemblages| they additionally provide biodiversity services. Biogeochemical responses of these systems fall chiefly into two areas: carbon neutrality and water and nutrient conservation. Fluxes must be measured and understood in proposed cropping systems sufficient to inform models that will predict biogeochemical behavior at field| landscape| and regional scales. Because tradeoffs are inherent to these systems| a systems approach is imperative| and because potential biofuel cropping systems and their environmental contexts are complex and cannot be exhaustively tested| modeling will be instructive. Modeling alternative biofuel cropping systems converted from different starting points| for example| suggests that converting CRP to corn ethanol production under conventional tillage results in substantially increased net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that can be only partly mitigated with no-till management. Alternatively| conversion of existing cropland or prairie to switchgrass production results in a net GHG sink. Outcomes and policy must be informed by science that adequately quantifies the true biogeochemical costs and advantages of alternative systems. 12104,2011,3,4,The carbon footprint of bread,The aim of this study has been to estimate the carbon footprint of bread produced and consumed in the UK. Sliced white and wholemeal bread has been considered for these purposes and the functional unit is defined as "one loaf of sliced bread (800 g) consumed at home". The influence on the carbon footprint of several parameters has been analysed| including country of origin of wheat (UK| Canada| France| Germany| Spain and USA)| type of flour (white| brown and wholemeal) and type of packaging (plastic and paper bags). The effect on the results of the type of data (primary and secondary) has also been considered. The carbon footprint has been estimated in accordance with the PAS 2050 methodology. The results have also been calculated following the ISO 14044 methodology to identify any differences in the two approaches and the results. Primary data for the PAS 2050-compliant study have been collected from a UK bread supply chain. Secondary data have been sourced from the UK statistics| life cycle inventory databases and other published sources. The carbon footprint results range from 977 to 1|244 g CO(2) eq. per loaf of bread. Wholemeal thick-sliced bread packaged in plastic bags has the lowest carbon footprint and white medium-sliced bread in paper bag the highest. The main hot spots are wheat cultivation and consumption of bread (refrigerated storage and toasting)| contributing 35% and 25% to the total| respectively. The carbon footprint could be reduced on average by 25% by avoiding toasting and refrigerated storage of bread. Further reductions (5-10%) could be achieved by reducing the amount of waste bread discarded by consumers. The contribution of transport and packaging to the overall results is small. Similar trends in the results are also found in the study based on the secondary data and following the ISO 14044 methodology. 3482,2011,4,4,The challenges facing sustainable and adaptive groundwater management in South Africa,Long-term population growth and economic development are placing ever-increasing pressure on South Africa's freshwater supply. On the basis of the current climate change predictions| which often entail uncertain consequences for aquifer systems and the associated groundwater goods and services| it is expected that the stress on water will increase even further. Currently| South Africa's groundwater governance regime does not provide the capacity to assure effective and sustainable resource regulation and allocation. To date| the management of groundwater is hampered by a variety of uncertainties| such as global climate change and socio-economic growth| as well as ineffective governance structures affecting resource use| regulation| protection and the implementation of alternative strategies needed to achieve sustainable management. This paper presents the results of a qualitative assessment of interviews conducted with experts in South Africa. Four key challenges are identified to the development of adaptive and sustainable groundwater management and the successful implementation of current water legislation in South Africa. These are: the undervaluation of groundwater importance and significance; the need for expertise and information at all scales; the centralisation of power; and the disregard of ecosystems and the associated goods and services. As a means to tackle these challenges| it has been assumed that the concept of adaptive water management represents a suitable approach to governing groundwater resources| by taking into account complex system linkages between hydrogeological| political| socio-economic and environmental domains. Supporting principles| such as tools for cooperation| participation and information networks| have been developed to facilitate the implementation of adaptive water management approaches and hence to achieve institutional change in the political arena of groundwater management.
12770,2011,2,3,The climate gap: environmental health and equity implications of climate change and mitigation policies in California-a review of the literature,Climate change is an issue of great importance for human rights| public health| and socioeconomic equity because of its diverse consequences overall as well as its disproportionate impact on vulnerable and socially marginalized populations. Vulnerability to climate change is determined by a community's ability to anticipate| cope with| resist| and recover from the impact of major weather events. Climate change will affect industrial and agricultural sectors| as well as transportation| health| and energy infrastructure. These shifts will have significant health and economic consequences for diverse communities throughout California. Without proactive policies to address these equity concerns| climate change will likely reinforce and amplify current as well as future socioeconomic disparities| leaving low-income| minority| and politically marginalized groups with fewer economic opportunities and more environmental and health burdens. This review explores the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups in California and investigates the costs and benefits of the climate change mitigation strategies specified for implementation in the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32). Lastly| knowledge gaps| future research priorities| and policy implications are identified. 11688,2011,2,4,The combined effect of ultraviolet B radiation and temperature increase on phytoplankton dynamics and cell cycle using pulse shape recording flow cytometry,Temperature and ultraviolet radiation B (UVB) are expected to increase in the next few decades and will mostly affect mid and high latitudes. In order to study the combined effect of temperature and UVB increase| on the phytoplankton community in the Saint Lawrence Estuary| duplicates of four different treatments were applied to 2 m(3) mesocosms to simulate an overall 3 degrees C and a 77.8% UVB increase| and combined. Samples were collected every 6 h over 10 days and the phytoplankton community was then analysed using a conventional flow cytometer and a Cytosense flow cytometer. Flow cytometry distinguished 9 clusters (Pico| Nano I| C3| C4| CHAINS| C6| C7 and C8) of cells sharing similar optical properties with average sizes varying from 1.3 mu m up to 101 mu m for chain forming cells. Compared to untreated enclosures| the high UVB treatment induced lower cell abundances (up to -40%) for clusters Pico| Nano I. C4| CHAINS and C7| followed by an unexpected cell abundance increase in all the clusters during the last 3 days of the experiment (up to 46%). This increase was sustained by faster calculated periodicities of the cell optical characteristics and abundances| linked to a shorter cell cycle. In the samples from the high temperature treatment mesocosms| a positive delay was observed for the cell abundance increase in clusters CHAINS| C6 and C8| combined with higher average abundance values (up to 67% with respect to untreated mesocosms). During the last 3 days of the experiment| abundances decreased compared to the values observed in the high UVB mesocosms| with a slower trend in the periodicities| suggesting that high temperature inhibits the cell cycle. The combined temperature and UVB treatment emphasized the effects observed under high temperature treatments| maintaining temperature positive effects (i.e. higher abundances) on clusters C3| CHAINS| C6 and C8 suggesting a compensation from the positive temperature effects over the negative (i.e. lower abundances) UVB effects. Increasing temperature induced a negative effect on the abundance of clusters C4 and C7. In this case| trends in C6 and C8 cell periodicities were faster than under normal conditions while Nano I| C4 and C7 cycles were slower. Cells<3 mu m were negatively affected by the combined exposure (up to -55% compared to untreated mesocosms) while most of the larger cells were positively affected (up to -55% compared to untreated mesocosms)| suggesting a shift to an herbivorous food web (sensu Legendre and Rassoulzadegan| 1995). Results suggest that changes in cell cycles due to increases in temperature or UVB exposure may play an important role in controlling abundance. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12715,2011,3,3,The coming sustainable energy transition: History| strategies| and outlook,Facing global climate change and scarce petroleum supplies| the world must switch to sustainable energy systems. While historical transitions between major energy sources have occurred| most of these shifts lasted over a century or longer and were stimulated by resource scarcity| high labor costs| and technological innovations. The energy transition of the 21st century will need to be more rapid. Unfortunately| little is known about how to accelerate energy transitions. This article reviews past transitions and factors behind them| along with their time frames. Three modern case studies are discussed: Brazil| which shifted from an oil-based transportation system to one based on sugarcane-ethanol (success): France| which shifted from oil-fired electric power to nuclear power (success): and the United States| which attempted to shift from foreign oil to a mix of domestic energy resources (failure). Lessons from these attempts to govern energy transitions are discussed. Several policy instruments to accelerate a transition are identified| though even under ideal circumstances a global energy supply transition will be very slow. Given the need to simultaneously implement programs in countries with different political economies| a greater focus on energy efficiency| promotion of Smart Grids| and possibly a new treaty should yield more timely results. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3465,2011,4,4,The comparison of several colour indices for the photographic recording of canopy phenology of Fagus crenata Blume in eastern Japan,Background: To understand how forests and woodland respond to global climate change| phenological observations are being made at a number of sites worldwide. Recently| digital cameras have been deployed as part of the existing network of ecosystem CO2 flux towers to provide a time-series of canopy images| and various numerical indices have so far been used by different authors. Aims: To identify which are the most effective colour indices to calculate from the signals extracted from digital cameras| in order to provide recommendations to the scientific community. Methods: Sample images of a Japanese beech (Fagus crenata) forest on Mt. Tsukuba (Japan) were used to define and calculate 12 colour signals and vegetation indices. Results: Although the strength of green signal and green excess index were reliable indicators for estimating foliage growth period| the indices were susceptible to low-visibility weather conditions and distance from the camera. Hue provided a robust metric| showing much less scatter during the vegetative period and a good indication of spring bud break. The bud break dates derived from the indices were slightly earlier than those assessed by visual observation| while the abscission dates were later. Conclusions: We propose that of all the candidate colour indices| hue is the most promising for the detection of bud break as it was least affected by atmospheric conditions. 11626,2011,4,4,The contribution of cosmic rays to global warming,A search has been made for a contribution of the changing cosmic ray intensity to the global warming observed in the last century. The cosmic ray intensity shows a strong 11 year cycle due to solar modulation and the overall rate has decreased since 1900. These changes in cosmic ray intensity are compared to those of the mean global surface temperature to attempt to quantify any link between the two. It is shown that| if such a link exists| the changing cosmic ray intensity contributes less than 8% to the increase in the mean global surface temperature observed since 1900. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12266,2011,3,3,The contribution of maize cropping in the Midwest USA to global warming: A regional estimate,Agricultural soils emit about 50% of the global flux of N(2)O attributable to human influence| mostly in response to nitrogen fertilizer use. Recent evidence that the relationship between N(2)O fluxes and N-fertilizer additions to cereal maize are non-linear provides an opportunity to estimate regional N(2)O fluxes based on estimates of N application rates rather than as a simple percentage of N inputs as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We combined a simple empirical model of N(2)O production with the SOCRATES soil carbon dynamics model to estimate N(2)O and other sources of Global Warming Potential (GWP) from cereal maize across 19|000 cropland polygons in the North Central Region (NCR) of the US over the period 1964-2005. Results indicate that the loading of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from cereal maize production in the NCR was 1.7 Gt CO(2)e| with an average 268 t CO(2)e produced per tonne of grain. From 1970 until 2005| GHG emissions per unit product declined on average by 2.8 t CO(2)e ha(-1) annum(-1)| coinciding with a stabilisation in N application rate and consistent increases in grain yield from the mid-1970's. Nitrous oxide production from N fertilizer inputs represented 59% of these emissions| soil C decline (0-30 cm) represented 11% of total emissions| with the remaining 30% (517 Mt) from the combustion of fuel associated with farm operations. Of the 126 Mt of N fertilizer applied to cereal maize from 1964 to 2005| we estimate that 2.2 Mt N was emitted as N(2)O when using a non-linear response model| equivalent to 1.75% of the applied N. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12553,2011,2,4,The contribution of moisture to heat stress in a period of global warming: the case of the Mediterranean,This study deals with potential changes in the relative humidity associated with global warming and their implications on heat stress along the coastal region of the Mediterranean in the summer season. It is based on the assumption that the regional warming will enhance the lower-level stability due to the thermal inertia of the sea with respect to its overlying air. The enhanced stability implies more effective trapping of the near surface moisture| and as a result-further increase of the relative humidity. The marine boundary layer over the Mediterranean is modeled. The central feature of the model is the marine inversion capping the marine moist air| which intensity is positively correlated with the stability. Simple calculations indicate that if the temperature increases| while the stability remains unchanged| the near-surface relative humidity would not be affected. But| an increase in the stability would result in an increase in the near-surface relative humidity. This prediction is validated through observed trends of the respective fields| using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and soundings from the eastern Mediterranean. The results are consistent in indicating an increase in the near-surface temperature| the lower-level stability and the relative humidity over the eastern part of the Mediterranean| but not in its western part. The results for the eastern Mediterranean support the expectation for an aggravation of heat stress beyond that imparted by the temperature rise. 11574,2011,4,4,The Contribution of Orographically Driven Banded Precipitation to the Rainfall Climatology of a Mediterranean Region,Studies carried out worldwide show that topography influences rainfall climatology. As in most western Mediterranean regions| the mountainous Cevennes-Vivarais area in France regularly experiences extreme precipitation that may lead to devastating flash floods. Global warming could further aggravate this situation| but this possibility cannot be confirmed without first improving the understanding of the role of topography in the regional climate and| in particular| for extreme rainfall events. This paper focuses on organized banded rainfall and evaluates its contribution to the rainfall climatology of this region. Stationary rainfall systems made up of such bands are triggered and enhanced by small-scale interactions between the atmospheric flow and the relief. Rainbands are associated with shallow convection and are also present in deep-convection events for specific flux directions. Such precipitation patterns are difficult to observe both with operational weather radar networks| which are not designed to observe low-level convection within complex terrain| and with rain gauge networks| for which gauge spacing is typically larger than the bandwidth. A weather class of banded orographic shallow-convection events is identified| and the contribution of such events to annual or seasonal precipitation over the region is assessed. Moreover| a method is also proposed to quantify the contribution of banded convection during specific deep-convection events. It is shown that even though these orographically driven banded precipitation events produce moderate precipitation intensities they have long durations and therefore represent a significant amount of the rainfall climatology of the region| producing up to 40% of long-term total precipitation at certain locations. 11606,2011,3,4,The cooling effect of green spaces as a contribution to the mitigation of urban heat: A case study in Lisbon,Green areas in the urban environment can contribute to the mitigation of the Urban Heat Island. In a context of climate change| with the expected increase in temperature| dryness and intensity of heat waves| green areas assume even higher importance as they can create a cooling effect that extends to the surrounding areas. This study analyses the thermal performance of a small green space (0.24 ha) and its influence in the surrounding atmospheric environment of a densely urbanised area in Lisbon. Measurements of weather parameters (temperature| relative humidity| wind speed| solar and infrared radiation) were carried out along a selected path| starting from inside the green area to surrounding streets with different orientations and solar exposure. It was found that the garden was cooler than the surrounding areas| either in the sun or in the shade. These differences were higher in hotter days and particularly related to the mean radiant temperature (Tmrt). The highest difference found was of 6.9 degrees C in relation to air temperature and 39.2 degrees C in relation to Tmrt; in both cases this difference occurred between the shaded site inside the garden and the sunny site in an E W oriented street in the southern part of the studied area. Besides the local weather conditions| particularly the low wind speed| the sun exposure and the urban geometry are the potential factors that explain these differences. The cooling effect of green areas on the surrounding environment can be enhanced by additional measures related to the urban features of each city. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12686,2011,2,4,The Danger of Having All Your Eggs in One Basket-Winter Crash of the Re-Introduced Przewalski's Horses in the Mongolian Gobi,Large mammals re-introduced into harsh and unpredictable environments are vulnerable to stochastic effects| particularly in times of global climate change. The Mongolian Gobi is home to several rare large ungulates such as re-introduced Przewalski's horses (Equus ferus przewalskii) and Asiatic wild asses (Equus hemionus)| but also to a millennium-old seminomadic livestock herding culture. The Gobi is prone to large inter-annual environmental fluctuations| but the winter 2009/ 2010 was particularly severe. Millions of livestock died and the Przewalski's horse population in the Gobi crashed. We used spatially explicit livestock loss statistics| ranger survey data and GPS telemetry to provide insight into the effect of a catastrophic climate event on the two sympatric wild equid species and the livestock population in light of their different space use strategies. Herders in and around the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area lost on average 67% of their livestock. Snow depth varied locally| resulting in livestock losses following an east-west gradient. Herders had few possibilities for evasion| as competition for available winter camps was high. Przewalski's horses used three different winter ranges| two in the east and one in the west. Losses averaged 60%| but differed hugely between east and west. Space use of Przewalski's horses was extremely conservative| as groups did not attempt to venture beyond their known home ranges. Asiatic wild asses seemed to have suffered few losses by shifting their range westwards. The catastrophic winter 2009/ 2010 provided a textbook example for how vulnerable small and spatially confined populations are in an environment prone to environmental fluctuations and catastrophes. This highlights the need for disaster planning by local herders| multiple reintroduction sites with spatially dispersed populations for re-introduced Przewalski's horses| and a landscape-level approach beyond protected area boundaries to allow for migratory or nomadic movements in Asiatic wild asses. 11791,2011,3,3,The delivery of low-cost| low-carbon rural energy services,The provision of both electrical and mechanical energy services can play a critical role in poverty alleviation for the almost two billion rural users who currently lack access to electricity. Distributed generation using diesel generators remains a common means of electricity provision for rural communities throughout the world. Due to rising fuel costs| the need to address poverty| and consequences of global warming| it is necessary to develop cost efficient means of reducing fossil fuel consumption in isolated diesel microgrids. Based on a case study in Nicaragua| a set of demand and supply side measures are ordered by their annualized costs in order to approximate an energy supply curve. The curve highlights significant opportunities for reducing the costs of delivering energy services while also transitioning to a carbon-free electrical system. In particular| the study demonstrates the significant cost savings resulting from the implementation of conventional metering| efficient residential lighting| and electricity generation using renewable energy sources. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3277,2011,5,4,The early Holocene sea level rise,The causes| anatomy and consequences of the early Holocene sea level rise (EHSLR) are reviewed. The rise| of ca 60m| took place over most of the Earth as the volume of the oceans increased during deglaciation and is dated at 11|650-7000 cal. BP. The EHSLR was largely driven by meltwater release from decaying ice masses and the break up of coastal ice streams. The patterns of ice sheet decay and the evidence for meltwater pulses are reviewed| and it is argued that the EHSLR was a factor in the ca 8470 BP flood from Lake Agassiz-Ojibway. Patterns of relative sea level changes are examined and it is argued that in addition to regional variations| temporal changes are indicated. The impact of the EHSLR on climate is reviewed and it is maintained that the event was a factor in the 8200 BP cooling event| as well as in changes in ocean current patterns and their resultant effects. The EHSLR may also have enhanced volcanic activity| but no clear evidence of a causal link with submarine sliding on continental slopes and shelves can yet be demonstrated. The rise probably influenced rates and patterns of human migrations and cultural changes. It is concluded that the EHSLR was a major event of global significance| knowledge of which is relevant to an understanding of the impacts of global climate change in the future. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12700,2011,5,4,The early-Eocene climate optimum (EECO) event in the Qaidam basin| northwest China: clay evidence,Clay mineralogy and its palaeoclimatic interpretation of the early-Eocene (similar to 53.3-49.70 Ma) sediments at Lulehe| Qaidam basin| northwest China| were investigated using optical microscopy| scanning electron microscopy (SEM)| and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The interval of similar to 53.3-49.70 Ma| including the early-Eocene climate optimum (EECO) with isotopic events| was the transition period of "greenhouse" to "icehouse". Climate changes during the episode were documented in the sediments and were expressed by the proportion of clay species and clay indices| as well as by the proportion of non-clay minerals| gypsum| halite and calcite. Our results suggest that a warm and humid climate prevailed over the period similar to 53.3-52.90 Ma| followed by a warm and seasonally dry and humid climate in the period similar to 52.90-51.0 Ma and a subsequently warm and humid climate in the period similar to 51.0-49.70 Ma. Three warmer and more humid intervals were observed at 52.7| 51.0 and 50.5 Ma based on clay indices. The climate evolution in the Qaidam Basin during the period derived from the clay mineralogical study is in good agreement with the early Eocene global climate change| and the warm and seasonally dry and humid episode in the early Eocene in Qaidam basin is a regional response to the global early-Eocene climate optimum. 3334,2011,2,4,The ecological role of climate extremes: current understanding and future prospects,P>1. Climate extremes| such as severe drought| heat waves and periods of heavy rainfall| can have profound consequences for ecological systems and for human welfare. Global climate change is expected to increase both the frequency and the intensity of climate extremes and there is an urgent need to understand their ecological consequences. 2. Major challenges for advancing our understanding of the ecological consequences of climate extremes include setting a climatic baseline to facilitate the statistical determination of when climate conditions are extreme| having sufficient knowledge of ecological systems so that extreme ecological responses can be identified| and finally| being able to attribute a climate extreme as the driver of an extreme ecological response| defined as an extreme climatic event (ECE). 3. The papers in this issue represent a cross-section of the emerging field of climate extremes research| including an examination of the palaeo-ecological record to assess patterns and drivers of extreme ecological responses in the late Quaternary| experiments in grasslands assessing a range of ecological responses and the role of ecotypic variation in determining responses to climate extremes| and the quantification of the ecological consequences of a recent ECE in the desert Southwest of the USA. 4. Synthesis. The papers in this Special Feature suggest that although the occurrence of ECEs may be common in palaeo-ecological and observational studies| studies in which climate extremes have been experimentally imposed often do not result in ecological responses outside the bounds of normal variability of a system. Thus| ECEs occur much less frequently than their potential drivers and even less frequently than observational studies suggest. Future research is needed to identify the types and time-scales of climate extremes that result in ECEs| the potential for interactions among different types of climate changes and extremes| and the role of genetic| species and trait diversity in determining ecological responses and their evolutionary consequences. These research priorities require the development of alternative research approaches to impose realistic climate extremes on a broad range of organisms and ecosystems. 12260,2011,2,4,THE EFFECT OF ECOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS ON THE DISPERSAL ABILITIES OF CENTRAL EUROPEAN DRAGONFLIES (ODONATA),Individual species dispersal ability deserves special attention mainly because of negative impact of human induced changes on freshwater ecosystems. This study is focused on Central European dragonflies| because there is a high concentration of very experienced odonatologists in this region. It is more difficult to estimate dispersal ability of distant taxa than closely related spp. This study supports the widespread awareness of limited dispersal abilities of habitat generalists. Although there are a variety of life-history groups between both suborders| the majority of spp. with limited dispersal abilities are from the suborder Zygoptera. Mediterranean elements| often referred to as those expanding due to global warming| embody higher dispersal abilities than Siberian elements. Lentic spp. may benefit from the stable conditions of standing waters in comparison to lotic ones| although this preference is not so strong according to authors' analysis. 12307,2011,2,4,The effect of experimental warming on leaf functional traits| leaf structure and leaf biochemistry in Arabidopsis thaliana,Background: The leaf is an important plant organ| and how it will respond to future global warming is a question that remains unanswered. The effects of experimental warming on leaf photosynthesis and respiration acclimation has been well studied so far| but relatively little information exists on the structural and biochemical responses to warming. However| such information is very important to better understand the plant responses to global warming. Therefore| we grew Arabidopsis thaliana at the three day/night temperatures of 23/18 degrees C (ambient temperature)| 25.5/20.5 degrees C (elevated by 2.5 degrees C) and 28/23 degrees C (elevated by 5 degrees C) to simulate the middle and the upper projected warming expected within the 21st century for this purpose. Results: The 28/23 degrees C treatment significantly reduced the life span| total biomass and total weight of seeds compared with the other two temperatures. Among the three temperature regimes| the concentrations of starch| chlorophyll| and proline were the lowest at 28/23 degrees C| whereas the total weight of seeds| concentrations of chlorophyll and proline| stomatal density (SD)| stomatal conductance (g(s))| net CO(2) assimilation rate (A) and transpiration rate (E) were the highest at 25.5/20.5 degrees C. Furthermore| the number of chloroplasts per cell and mitochondrial size were highest at 25.5/20.5 degrees C and lowest at 28/23 degrees C. Conclusions: The conditions whereby the temperature was increased by 2.5 degrees C were advantageous for Arabidopsis. However| a rise of 5 degrees C produced negative effects| suggesting that lower levels of warming may benefit plants| especially those which belong to the same functional group as Arabidopsis| whereas higher levels of warming may produce negative affects. In addition| the increase in A under moderately warm conditions may be attributed to the increase in SD| chlorophyll content| and number of chloroplasts. Furthermore| starch accumulation in chloroplasts may be the main factor influencing chloroplast ultrastructure| and elevated temperature regulates plant respiration by probably affecting mitochondrial size. Finally| high SOD and CAT activities may enable plants grown at elevated temperatures to exhibit relatively high tolerance to temperature stress| thus alleviating the harmful effects of superoxide anion radicals and hydrogen peroxide. 12852,2011,3,2,The Effect of Fuel Price on the Economic Analysis of Hybrid (Photovoltaic/Diesel/Battery) Systems in Iran,Diesel power technology has been utilized worldwide| especially in remote regions| because of its low initial capital cost. But it has negative effects on the surrounding environment and causes global warming. On the other hand| depleting oil and fuel resources has made it inevitable to seek alternative/renewable energy resources. In Iran| the cost of fuel is highly subsidized. If Iran removes the fuel subsidy| the cost of diesel fuel would increase and the photovoltaic (PV) or hybrid PV/diesel systems would become more attractive. Hybrid photovoltaic/diesel/battery (PV/diesel/bat) systems which use PV energy| combined with diesel generation power and battery bank storage are an excellent solution to decrease diesel generator costs| pollution| and electrification of remote rural areas. In this article| a study using PV/diesel/bat power systems to meet typical load requirements in a remote region in Kerman| Iran is investigated under four different diesel generator fuel price scenarios. A simple optimization method is used to determine the systems with high reliability and low costs. The method used| which is based on annual electrical demand| solar radiation data| and rated power of the diesel generator consists of two parts: The model of loss of power supply probability and the model of the levelized cost of energy. Results show that only under a subsidized diesel fuel price scenario| the diesel-only system has the minimum cost| but by the elimination of diesel fuel price subsidies| the role of the diesel generator decreases in hybrid (PV/diesel/bat) energy systems. 11973,2011,3,4,The effect of fuel properties on thermal efficiency of advanced spark-ignition engines,Owing to issues of global warming and energy security| improving engine thermal efficiency has become increasingly important today. This paper investigates the impact of high-research-octane-number (RON) fuels on engine thermal efficiency. It is shown that the lean boosted engine has higher potential to increase engine thermal efficiency than naturally aspirated (NA) engines and the combination of lean boosted engine and high-RON fuels gives around 44 per cent engine thermal efficiency. The engine thermal efficiency exceeds a diesel engine's thermal efficiency. Therefore| the combination is expected to be an effective way to reduce CO(2) emissions in the future. In this paper| the high-RON fuels are blended with gasoline components or bio-components. This paper also describes the combustion characteristics of ethanol and butanol. These fuels have good combustion features after the engine has warmed up. However| it is found that butanol gives more severe combustion characteristics under cold conditions. 11716,2011,5,3,The effect of global warming and global cooling on the distribution of the latest Permian climate zones,The end-Permian biotic crisis is commonly associated with rapid and severe climatic changes. These climatic changes are commonly suggested to have originated from solid Earth carbon degassing (leading to global warming)| but aerosol- and ash-induced cooling induced by lava degassing has been suggested as well. The application of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity has enabled a visualisation of the major climatic shifts on the supercontinent Pangaea caused by rapid temperature changes due to changed radiative properties from greenhouse gases. The reconstructed reference climate was validated by latest Permian climate indicative sediments to investigate the possible climatic shifts. From a set of 22 reconstructions which varied with temperature a minimum global annual mean temperature of 18.2 degrees C for the late Permian climate prior to the climatic perturbation event was determined. Starting from this pre-event setup| global warming and global cooling scenarios were simulated. The response of the end Permian climate system to temperature increase and decrease show marked differences. While global cooling is followed by major climatic changes in the high latitudes and replacement of boreal biomes by tundra and polar frost| the changes during global warming are less pronounced with only locally increasing aridity compensated by humidisation in other regions. The different behaviour of the climatic belts under warm and cold conditions is accompanied by different climate sensitivities caused by different strength of the snow cover-albedo feedback. Thus| changes in the energy balance of the latest Permian surface-troposphere system have a 30% higher perturbation potential during cold climate conditions than during warmhouse conditions. Therefore substantial global cooling resulting in coldhouse climate conditions and an annual global mean temperature below 18 degrees C is more efficient in perturbing the Earth palaeoclimate during the end-Permian warmhouse. The results suggest that global cooling mechanisms as injection of sulphur aerosols and ash particles from the Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province into the Late Permian palaeoatmosphere have a higher climate perturbation potential than a warming due to carbon greenhouse gases with a similar magnitude of radiative forcing. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11904,2011,3,3,The effect of improving cow productivity| fertility| and longevity on the global warming potential of dairy systems,This study compared the environmental impact of a range of dairy production systems in terms of their global warming potential (GWP| expressed as carbon dioxide equivalents| CO(2)-eq.) and associated land use and explored the efficacy of reducing said impact. Models were developed using the unique data generated from a long-term genetic line x feeding system experiment. Holstein-Friesian cows were selected to represent the UK average for milk fat plus protein production (control line) or were selected for increased milk fat plus protein production (select line). In addition| cows received a low forage diet (50% forage) with no grazing or were on a high forage (75% forage) diet with summer grazing. A Markov chain approach was used to describe the herd structure and help estimate the GWP per year and land required per cow for the 4 alternative systems and the herd average using a partial life cycle assessment. The CO(2)-eq. emissions were expressed per kilogram of energy-corrected milk (ECM) and per hectare of land use| as well as land required per kilogram of ECM. The effects of a phenotypic and genetic standard deviation unit improvement on herd feed utilization efficiency| ECM yield| calving interval length| and incidence of involuntary culling were assessed. The low forage (nongrazing) feeding system with select cows produced the lowest CO(2)-eq. emissions of 1.1 kg/kg of ECM and land use of 0.65 m(2)/kg of ECM but the highest CO(2)-eq. emissions of 16.1 t/ha of the production systems studied. Within the herd| an improvement of 1 standard deviation in feed utilization efficiency was the only trait of those studied that would significantly reduce the reliance of the farming system on bought-in synthetic fertilizer and concentrate feed| as well as reduce the average CO(2)-eq. emissions and land use of the herd (both by about 6.5%| of which about 4% would be achievable through selective breeding). Within production systems| reductions in CO(2)-eq. emissions per kilogram of ECM and CO2-eq. emissions per hectare were also achievable by an improvement in feed utilization. This study allowed development of models that harness the biological trait variation in the animal to improve the environmental impact of the farming system. Genetic selection for efficient feed use for milk production according to feeding system can bring about reductions in system nutrient requirements| CO(2)-eq. emissions| and land use per unit product. 12061,2011,2,4,The effect of microscopic charged particulates in space weather,Space weather is a relatively new and important field of research. It is relevant to diverse topics such as radio communication| space travel| diagnostics of ionospheric and space plasmas| detection of pollutants and re-entry objects| prediction of terrestrial weather and global warming. Recently it has been shown that nano- and micrometre-sized electrically charged particulates from interplanetary space and from the Earth's atmosphere can affect the local properties as well as the diagnostics of the interplanetary| magnetospheric| ionospheric and terrestrial complex plasmas. In this report the sources of the charged dust particulates and the effects of the latter on the near-Earth space weather are examined. 3296,2011,2,4,The effect of prolonged darkness on the growth| recovery and survival of Antarctic sea ice diatoms,While global climate change in polar regions is expected to cause significant warming| the annual cycle of light and dark will remain unchanged. Cultures of three species of Antarctic sea ice diatoms| Fragilariopsis cylindrus (Grunow) Krieger| Thalassiosira antarctica Comber and Entomoneis kjellmanii (P.T. Cleve) Poulin and Cardinal| were incubated in the dark and exposed to differing temperatures. Maximum dark survival times varied between 30 and 60 days. Photosynthetic parameters| photosynthetic efficiency (alpha)| maximum quantum yield (Fv/Fm)| maximum relative electron transport rate (rETRmax) and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ)| showed that dark exposure had a significant impact on photoacclimation. In contrast| elevated temperatures had a relatively minor impact on photosynthetic functioning during the dark exposure period but had a considerable impact on dark survival with minimal dark survival times reduced to only 7 days when exposed to 10A degrees C. Recovery of maximum quantum yield of fluorescence (Fv/Fm) was not significantly impacted by temperature| species or dark exposure length. Recovery rates of Fv/Fm ranged from -5.06E-7 +/- A 2.71E-7 s(-1) to 1.36E-5 +/- A 1.53E-5 s(-1) for monthly experiments and from -9.63E-7 +/- A 7.71E-7 s(-1) to 2.65E-5 +/- A 2.97E-5 s(-1) for weekly experiments. NPQ recovery was greater and more consistent than Fv/Fm recovery| ranging between 5.74E-7 +/- A 8.11E-7 s(-1) to 7.50E-3 +/- A 7.1E-4 s(-1). The concentration of chl-a and monosaccharides remained relatively constant in both experiments. These results suggest that there will probably be little effect on Antarctic microalgae with increasing water temperatures during the Antarctic winter. 12842,2011,2,4,The effect of the predicted air temperature change on incubation temperature| incubation duration| sex ratio and hatching success of loggerhead turtles,Marine turtles are sensitive to temperature changes and thus are likely to be impacted by the predicted climate change. This study assesses the effect of the predicted air temperature change on incubation temperature| incubation duration| sex ratio and hatching success of the loggerhead turtle Caretta caretta at the Mediterranean nesting sites of Dalyan and Fethiye| Turkey. We recorded sand temperatures and used air temperatures at two nesting sites to estimate the sex ratio of hatchlings. The data showed that hatchling production was 59.1% and 77.7% at Dalyan in 2004 and 2009| respectively| and 72.2% and 72.3% at Fethiye at 2008 and 2009| respectively. Incubation temperature was positively correlated with both air temperature and distance to sea. Sex ratio estimation and incubation duration between the years 1993 and 2009 in Fethiye show polynomic trend lines. The best predictors of hatching success were distance to vegetation and wet depth of nest. We modelled the effects of incremental increases in the future air temperature of up to 10 degrees C. We suggest that clutch death is not likely to begin until 3 degrees C of warming| increasing from 5.3% to 100.0% with warming between 4 degrees C and 10 degrees C. (C) Koninklijke Brill NV| Leiden| 2011. 3262,2011,2,4,The effects of climate change on density-dependent population dynamics of aquatic invertebrates,Global climate change has the potential to alter aquatic communities through changes in evapotranspiration and increased variability in precipitation. We used aquatic mesocosms to test the impacts of variable precipitation on population dynamics of commonn mosquito (Culicidae) and midge (Chironomidae) larvae that inhabit vernal pools. In a mixed deciduous forest in northern Vermont| USA| we orthogonally crossed seven levels of mean water level (increased rainfall) with seven levels of water level coefficient of variation (more variable rainfall) to simulate a broad array of climate change scenarios in 49 experimental mesocosms. The average abundance of Culicidae was highest at low water levels| whereas the average abundance of Chironomidae was highest at higher water levels and low variability in water level. Treatments and environmental and spatial covariates collectively explained 49% of the variance in mean abundance. For both taxa| we fit hierarchical Bayesian models to each 16-week time series to estimate the parameters in a Gompertz logistic equation of population growth with density dependence. We found that Culicidae population growth rate increased with decreasing water levels and that 87% of the variance in Chironomidae density dependence could be explained by treatment. Collectively| these results suggest that climate change can alter abundances aquatic invertebrate taxa but not necessarily through the same mechanism on all populations. In the case of Culicidae the abundance is affected by changes in growth rate| and in Chironomidae by changes in the strength of density dependence. 11880,2011,2,4,THE FATE OF THE SUBMARINE IKAITE TUFA COLUMNS IN SOUTHWEST GREENLAND UNDER CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS,Ikaite is considered a metastable mineral forming and stable only at low temperatures and therefore an indicator of low-temperature carbonate precipitation often associated with cold marine seeps. It is found world-wide but most spectacularly in Ikka Fjord in southwest Greenland as submarine carbonate tufa columns. Here| ikaite is formed as a result of submarine spring water mixing with cold seawater. As ikaite disintegrates at temperatures above 6-7 degrees C| it has been speculated that global warming could endanger this unique habitat as well as other sites. In Ikka Fjord in situ water chemistry in and around an ikaite column measured continuously over two years showed that the column water is alkaline (pH > 9-10) throughout the year with temperatures of -1.3-6.0 degrees C and conductivities of 5.7-7.9 mS cm(-1)| favoring year-round growth of columns at 4-5 cm per month. Short-term in situ measurements with needle micro sensors from both older dehydrated and calcified parts and more recently formed solid parts of an ikaite tufa column showed similar pH and temperature values| including a temperature variation over the tidal cycle. In the uppermost| recently deposited ikaite matrix| spring water escaping at the top causes passive drag of seawater into the porous ikaite matrix| leading to a mixing layer several centimeters thick that has pH values intermediate to the spring water in the column and the surrounding seawater. We conclude that the main part of the columns| consisting of fossilized ikaite (inverted to calcite) partly sealed by calcifying coralline algae and with year-round flow of alkaline freshwater through distinct channels| are resistant to warming. In the more diffuse top part of the columns| the formation of ikaite| and thus column growth| will be limited in the future due to increased fjord water temperature during the < 3 summer months a year. 12368,2011,3,3,The first step towards a 100% renewable energy-system for Ireland,In 2007 Ireland supplied 96% of the total energy demand with fossil fuels (7% domestic and 89% imported) and 3% with renewable energy even though there are enough renewable resources to supply all the energy required As energy prices increase and the effects of global warming worsen it is essential that Ireland begins to utilise its renewable resources more effectively Therefore this study presents the first step towards a 100% renewable energy-system for Ireland The energy-system analysis tool used was EnergyPLAN as it accounts for all sectors of the energy-system that need to be considered when integrating large penetrations of renewable energy the electricity heat and transport sectors Initially a reference model of the existing Irish energy-system was constructed and subsequently three different 100% renewable energy-systems were created with each focusing on a different resource biomass hydrogen and electricity These energy-systems were compared so that the benefits from each could be used to create an optimum scenario called combination Although the results illustrate a potential 100% renewable energy-system for Ireland they have been obtained based on numerous assumptions Therefore these will need to be improved in the future before a serious roadmap can be defined for Ireland s renewable energy transition (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved 12157,2011,4,3,The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP),To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols| we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far| different modeling groups have used different forcing scenarios for both global warming and geoengineering| complicating the comparison of results. We recommend four experiments to explore the extent to which geoengineering might offset climate change projected in some of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 experiments. These experiments focus on stratospheric aerosols| but future experiments under this framework may focus on different means of geoengineering. Copyright (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright 12823,2011,3,3,The greenhouse gas flux and potential global warming feedbacks of a northern macrotidal and microtidal salt marsh,Conversion of wetlands by drainage for agriculture or other anthropogenic activities could have a negative or positive feedback to global warming (GWF). We suggest that a major predictor of the GWF is salinity of the wetland soil (a proxy for available sulfate)| a factor often ignored in other studies. We assess the radiative balance of two northern salt marshes with average soil salinities > 20 ppt| but with high (macro-) and low (micro-) tidal amplitudes. The flux of greenhouse gases from soils at the end of the growing season averaged 485 +/- 253 mg m(-2) h(-1)| 13 +/- 30 mu g m(-2) h(-1)| and 19 +/- 58 mu g m(-2) h(-1) in the microtidal marsh and 398 +/- 201 mg m(-2) h(-1)| 2 +/- 26 mu g m(-2) h(-1)| and 35 +/- 77 mu g m(-2) h(-1) in the macrotidal marsh for CO(2)| N(2)O| and CH(4)| respectively. High rates of C sequestration mean that loss of these marshes would have a radiative balance of -981CO(2-)eq. m(-2) yr(-1) in the microtidal and -567CO(2-)eq.m(-2)yr(-1) in the macrotidal marsh. 3506,2011,5,3,The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human-induced global land-use change over the past 12|000 years,Aim This paper presents a tool for long-term global change studies; it is an update of the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) with estimates of some of the underlying demographic and agricultural driving factors. Methods Historical population| cropland and pasture statistics are combined with satellite information and specific allocation algorithms (which change over time) to create spatially explicit maps| which are fully consistent on a 5' longitude/latitude grid resolution| and cover the period 10|000 bc to ad 2000. Results Cropland occupied roughly less than 1% of the global ice-free land area for a long time until ad 1000| similar to the area used for pasture. In the centuries that followed| the share of global cropland increased to 2% in ad 1700 (c. 3 million km2) and 11% in ad 2000 (15 million km2)| while the share of pasture area grew from 2% in ad 1700 to 24% in ad 2000 (34 million km2) These profound land-use changes have had| and will continue to have| quite considerable consequences for global biogeochemical cycles| and subsequently global climate change. Main conclusions Some researchers suggest that humans have shifted from living in the Holocene (emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (humans capable of changing the Earth's atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land-use changes (e.g. as result of the depopulation of Europe due to the Black Death in the 14th century and the aftermath of the colonization of the Americas in the 16th century) we believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time. While there are still many uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge about the importance of land use (change) in the global biogeochemical cycle| we hope that this database can help global (climate) change modellers to close parts of this gap. 12339,2011,2,4,The impact of climate and cyclic food abundance on the timing of breeding and brood size in four boreal owl species,The ongoing climate change has improved our understanding of how climate affects the reproduction of animals. However| the interaction between food availability and climate on breeding has rarely been examined. While it has been shown that breeding of boreal birds of prey is first and foremost determined by prey abundance| little information exists on how climatic conditions influence this relationship. We studied the joint effects of main prey abundance and ambient weather on timing of breeding and reproductive success of two smaller (pygmy owl Glaucidium passerinum and Tengmalm's owl Aegolius funereus) and two larger (tawny owl Strix aluco and Ural owl Strix uralensis) avian predator species using long-term nation-wide datasets during 1973-2004. We found no temporal trend either in vole abundance or in hatching date and brood size of any studied owl species. In the larger species| increasing late winter or early spring temperature advanced breeding at least as much as did high autumn abundance of prey (voles). Furthermore| increasing snow depth delayed breeding of the largest species (Ural owl)| presumably by reducing the availability of voles. Brood size was strongly determined by spring vole abundance in all four owl species. These results show that climate directly affects the breeding performance of vole-eating boreal avian predators much more than previously thought. According to earlier studies| small-sized species should advance their breeding more than larger species in response to increasing temperature. However| we found an opposite pattern| with larger species being more sensitive to temperature. We argue that this pattern is caused by a difference in the breeding tactics of larger mostly capital breeding and smaller mostly income breeding owl species. 12646,2011,2,4,The impact of climate change on the growth of tropical agroforestry tree seedlings,Several studies have been conducted on the response of crops to greater concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) (CO(2) fertilization) as a result of climate change| but only few studies have evaluated this effect on multipurpose agroforestry tree species in tropical environments. The objectives of this study were to quantify differences in growth parameters and in leaf carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) concentrations of Cedrela odorata L. and Gliricidia sepium (Jacq.) Walp. seedlings under current ambient temperature (32 degrees C daytime| 22 degrees C night time) and CO(2) (360 ppm) (AMB); CO(2) fertilization (800 ppm| 32 degrees C daytime| 22 degrees C night time) ((f)CO(2)); elevated ambient temperature (360 ppm| 34 degrees C daytime| 25 degrees C night time) (TEMP); and a combination of elevated temperature (32 degrees C daytime| 22 degrees C night time) and CO(2) fertilization (800 ppm) (TEMPx(f)CO(2)). Results showed significant differences (P < 0.05) in seedling growth parameters (seedling height| number of stem leaves| leaf area ratio| shoot and root biomass| and shoot/root ratio) between treatments for both tree species. The greatest increases in growth parameters occurred in the TEMP and TEMPxfCO(2) treatments compared to the AMB treatment for both tree species. However| growth parameters were significantly lower (P < 0.05) in the fCO(2) treatment compared to that of the AMB treatment. Leaf N concentration was 1.1 to 2.1 times lower (P < 0.05) in all treatments when compared to current ambient conditions (AMB) in both tree species| but no significant changes in leaf C concentrations were observed. Results from our study suggested that fCO(2) had the greatest negative impact on tree growth parameters| and leaf N concentrations were affected negatively in all treatments compared to current ambient conditions. It is expected that such changes in growth parameters and plant N content may impact the long-term cycling of nutrients in agroforestry systems. 11784,2011,2,4,The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: What does the recent literature say?,In West Africa| agriculture| mainly rainfed| is a major economic sector and the one most vulnerable to climate change. A meta-database of future crop yields| built up from 16 recent studies| is used to provide an overall assessment of the potential impact of climate change on yields| and to analyze sources of uncertainty. Despite a large dispersion of yield changes ranging from -50% to +90%| the median is a yield loss near -11%. This negative impact is assessed by both empirical and process-based crop models whereas the Ricardian approach gives very contrasted results| even within a single study. The predicted impact is larger in northern West Africa (Sudano-Sahelian countries| -18% median response) than in southern West Africa (Guinean countries| -13%) which is likely due to drier and warmer projections in the northern part of West Africa. Moreover| negative impacts on crop productivity increase in severity as warming intensifies| with a median yield loss near -15% with most intense warming| highlighting the importance of global warming mitigation. The consistently negative impact of climate change results mainly from the temperature whose increase projected by climate models is much larger relative to precipitation change. However| rainfall changes| still uncertain in climate projections| have the potential to exacerbate or mitigate this impact depending on whether rainfall decreases or increases. Finally| results highlight the pivotal role that the carbon fertilization effect may have on the sign and amplitude of change in crop yields. This effect is particularly strong for a high carbon dioxide concentration scenario and for C3 crops (e.g. soybean| cassava). As staple crops are mainly C4 (e.g. maize| millet| sorghum) in WA| this positive effect is less significant for the region. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12583,2011,2,4,The impact of global warming on plant diseases and insect vectors in Sweden,Cold winters and geographic isolation have hitherto protected the Nordic countries from many plant pathogens and insect pests| leading to a comparatively low input of pesticides. The changing climate is projected to lead to a greater rise in temperature in this region| compared to the global mean. In Scandinavia| a milder and more humid climate implies extended growing seasons and possibilities to introduce new crops| but also opportunities for crop pests and pathogens to thrive in the absence of long cold periods. Increased temperatures| changed precipitation patterns and new cultivation practices may lead to a dramatic change in crop health. Examples of diseases and insect pest problems predicted to increase in incidence and severity due to global warming are discussed. 11586,2011,4,4,The impact of global warming on the Southern Oscillation Index,The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)-a measure of air pressure difference across the Pacific Ocean| from Tahiti in the south-east to Darwin in the west-is one of the world's most important climatic indices. The SOI is used to track and predict changes in both the El Nio-Southern Oscillation phenomenon| and the Walker Circulation (WC). During El Nio| for example| the WC weakens and the SOI tends to be negative. Climatic variations linked to changes in the WC have a profound influence on climate| ecosystems| agriculture| and societies in many parts of the world. Previous research has shown that (1) the WC and the SOI weakened in recent decades and that (2) the WC in climate models tends to weaken in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we examine changes in the SOI and air pressure across the Pacific in the observations and in numerous WCRP/CMIP3 climate model integrations for both the 20th and 21st centuries. The difference in mean-sea level air pressure (MSLP) between the eastern and western equatorial Pacific tends to weaken during the 21st century| consistent with previous research. Here we show that this primarily arises because of an increase in MSLP in the west Pacific and not a decline in the east. We also show| in stark contrast to expectations| that the SOI actually tends to increase during the 21st century| not decrease. Under global warming MSLP tends to increase at both Darwin and Tahiti| but tends to rise more at Tahiti than at Darwin. Tahiti lies in an extensive region where MSLP tends to rise in response to global warming. So while the SOI is an excellent indicator of interannual variability in both the equatorial MSLP gradient and the WC| it is a highly misleading indicator of long-term equatorial changes linked to global warming. Our results also indicate that the observed decline in the SOI in recent decades has been driven by natural| internally generated variability. The externally forced signal in the June-December SOI during 2010 is estimated to be approximately 5% of the standard deviation of variability in the SOI during the 20th century. This figure is projected to increase to 40% by the end of the 21st century under the A2 SRES scenario. The 2010 global warming signal is already a major contributor to interdecadal variability in the SOI| equal to 45% of the standard deviation of 30-year running averages of the SOI. This figure is projected to increase to nearly 340% by the end of the 21st century. Implications that these discoveries have for understanding recent climatic change and for seasonal prediction are discussed. 12438,2011,4,3,The impact of orbital sampling| monthly averaging and vertical resolution on climate chemistry model evaluation with satellite observations,Ensemble climate model simulations used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments have become important tools for exploring the response of the Earth System to changes in anthropogenic and natural forcings. The systematic evaluation of these models through global satellite observations is a critical step in assessing the uncertainty of climate change projections. This paper presents the technical steps required for using nadir sun-synchronous infrared satellite observations for multimodel evaluation and the uncertainties associated with each step. This is motivated by need to use satellite observations to evaluate climate models. We quantified the implications of the effect of satellite orbit and spatial coverage| the effect of variations in vertical sensitivity as quantified by the observation operator and the impact of averaging the operators for use with monthly-mean model output. We calculated these biases in ozone| carbon monoxide| atmospheric temperature and water vapour by using the output from two global chemistry climate models (ECHAM5-MOZ and GISS-PUCCINI) and the observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument on board the NASA-Aura satellite from January 2005 to December 2008. The results show that sampling and monthly averaging of the observation operators produce zonal-mean biases of less than +/- 3% for ozone and carbon monoxide throughout the entire troposphere in both models. Water vapour sampling zonal-mean biases were also within the insignificant range of +/- 3% (that is +/- 0.14 g kg(-1)) in both models. Sampling led to a temperature zonal-mean bias of +/- 0.3 K over the tropical and mid-latitudes in both models| and up to -1.4 K over the boundary layer in the higher latitudes. Using the monthly average of temperature and water vapour operators lead to large biases over the boundary layer in the southern-hemispheric higher latitudes and in the upper troposphere| respectively. Up to 8% bias was calculated in the upper troposphere water vapour due to monthly-mean operators| which may impact the detection of water vapour feedback in response to global warming. Our results reveal the importance of using the averaging kernel and the a priori profiles to account for the limited vertical resolution and clouds of a nadir observation during model application. Neglecting the observation operators resulted in large biases| which are more than 60% for ozone| +/- 30% for carbon monoxide| and range between -1.5K and 5K for atmospheric temperature| and between -60% and 100% for water vapour. 3154,2011,2,4,The impact of sea-level rise on Snowy Plovers in Florida: integrating geomorphological| habitat| and metapopulation models,Sea-level rise (SLR) is a projected consequence of global climate change that will result in complex changes in coastal ecosystems. These changes will cause transitions among coastal habitat types| which will be compounded by human-made barriers to the gradual inland migration of these habitat types. The effect of these changes on the future viability of coastal species will depend on the habitat requirements and population dynamics of these species. Thus| realistic assessments of the impact of SLR require linking geomorphological models with habitat and population models. In this study| we implemented a framework that allows this linkage| and demonstrated its feasibility to assess the effect of SLR on the viability of the Snowy Plover population in Florida. The results indicate that SLR will cause a decline in suitable habitat and carrying capacity for this species| and an increase in the risk of its extinction and decline. The model projected that the population size will decline faster than the area of habitat or carrying capacity| demonstrating the necessity of incorporating population dynamics in assessing the impacts of SLR on coastal species. The results were most sensitive to uncertainties in survival rate and fecundity| and suggested that future studies on this species should focus on the average and variability of these demographic rates and their dependence on population density. The effect of SLR on this species' viability was qualitatively similar with most alternative models that used the extreme values of each uncertain parameter| indicating that the results are robust to uncertainties in the model. 12145,2011,4,4,The impact of Site Changes and Management Methods on Dieback of Common Spruce (Picea abies Karst.) in Croatia,Common spruce (Picea abies Karst.) is a tree species that occurs naturally in the valleys and other frost sites in high mountain regions| where it is free of serious competition of other tree species. Being resistant to frost| the winter colds of the continental and mountainous climate suit it. It is highly tolerant of winter chills of the continental and mountainous climate| it likes areas with abundant precipitation and snow in particular and avoids those with little precipitation and low relative air humidity. In Croatia| it naturally occurs in high mountain areas of Gorski Kotar| Velebit and other parts of Lika| and especially in frost spots where it is free of competition with other tree species. In Europe| spruce is a favourite tree species for the establishment of forest cultures. It has the properties of both pioneer and transitional tree species. It is highly sensitive to summer droughts. During its growth| in its habitats it creates the conditions for the development of tree species of a climatogenous forest. It develops in regular and uneven-aged stands| while its percentage in selection stands with stable structural and stand conditions is lower. The total growing stock amounts to 13|200|000 m(3)| which accounts for 5.57 m(3)/ha of the forested area in Croatia. Its volume share in the highest age and diameter classes is 80%| which indicates its advanced age and physiological weakening. Regular and uneven-aged spruce forests of high silvicultural form cover an area of 6|300 ha| of which spruce accounts for 52% in the composition mixture| silver fir for 35%| common beech for 11%| and other species for 2%. Spruce is currently significantly affected by dieback; at the level of Croatia| the percentage of defoliated crowns is 59.3%| while in the Gorski Kotar area alone it is 96.2%. Droughts are one of the most important factors contributing to the physiological weakening and dieback of spruce in Croatia| while in Europe they are the major cause of dieback of catastrophic proportions. Temperatures measured in the past 15 years are the highest in the 150-year period| with a linear trend of temperature increase amounting to 0.74 degrees C. There is controversy as to the causes of droughts: according to many| they are the consequence of global warming| whereas others disagree. Data are given (Fig. I) on climate change from the past warm period| over the cold one| to the present warm period. Based on average annual temperature deviations for Europe from 1850 to 2009 (Fig. 2)| the current warm period has had two cold and three warm sub-periods| which contradicts the frequently emphasised negative impact of man's activity on climate. Apart from extreme droughts| another cause of spruce dieback is attributed to the impact of the unfavourable chemical climate and acid rains arriving most probably from the industrially developed western countries. This is the reason why the lead content in the soils of Gorski Kotar reaches the extreme values of 71 to 128 mg/kg. Accordingly| the unfavourable chemical climate and acid rains are the second most important reason for the dieback of not only spruce but other tree species as well (fir| beech). The third cause of dieback is the artificial and natural expansion of spruce into unsuitable sites| coupled with the absence of timely tending and regeneration procedures in natural and artificially established forest cultures. Spruce cannot be managed with the selection method because it is a pioneer species| which does not regenerate in climatogenic and coherently forested sites. It create the conditions for the return of fir and beech and simultaneously disappears from such stands. Its pioneer properties enable it to expand naturally in all the empty spaces within a broad complex of beech-fir forests in particular| as well as in deforested and degraded forest areas| frost sites| abandoned pastures| meadows| degraded forests such as thickets and scrub and in other areas at higher altitudes. Most of these sites are unsuitable for spruce| causing it to physiologically weaken and decline. Methods of common spruce management used to date have in general not been adjusted to its biological properties and ecological requirements or to the newly created site conditions. In our opinion| in addition to dry periods and unfavourable impact of chemical climate| management methods also represent an important cause of dieback. When all the three causes take place simultaneously| the ensuing result is catastrophic dieback. Low intensity dieback occurring in every stand| including a spruce stand| is a normal phenomenon characteristic of management with natural forests and forest cultures. It is usually the consequence of competition between certain species| particularly because tending operations such as cleaning and thinning are not performed| or it is the reaction to minor local site changes. Spruce is the desirable third species in selection forests of fir and beech| but with a lower percentage share in the composition mix. It creates the conditions for the return of fir and beech to the sites from which they have disappeared for different reasons. With the return of these species| the spruce gradually undergoes physiological weakening and should generally be removed from the composition mix of selection stands by means of tending and regeneration procedures. Spruce is a tree species whose stands have been subjected either to very little tending or none at all. In regular and uneven-aged stands| regeneration procedures have generally been postponed| while in selection stands spruce has been treated like fir in the selection of trees for cutting. All this has led to the currently unfavourable status of spruce: the spruce is old| over-mature| physiologically weak and prone to dieback in all stand forms. In view of the newly created unfavourable climate conditions| as well as air| water and soil pollution| common spruce should not be expanded into inadequate sites beyond its natural distribution range. If established in southern expositions and on stony and shallow soils| it is subject to premature dieback| so timely measures should be taken to replace it with another species that tolerates such conditions. Common spruce is an important| noble and highly usable species and it should not be neglected in future management. Better knowledge should be acquired of its biological properties| ecological requirements and commercial value. These silvicultural-management properties should be fully observed in the application of management procedures. 12125,2011,4,3,The impact of surface temperature variability on the climate change response in the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex,This study investigates the importance of the timescales of variability of land and ocean surface temperatures in the stratospheric response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. We present results from five pairs of 100-year (timeslice) simulations - control and 2 x CO(2) - carried out with the coupled chemistry-climate model IGCM-FASTOC| in which land and/or sea surface temperatures are either calculated interactively| prescribed and inter-annually varying| or prescribed with a climatological seasonal cycle. The strongest response to CO(2)-doubling in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude winter stratosphere is found when surface temperatures are calculated interactively by a coupled slab ocean and a land surface scheme. Both the interannual variability in ocean and land temperatures| and the adjustment of oceans and lands to the atmosphere and to one another| are important in order to maintain realistic stratospheric forcing by planetary waves and to adequately capture the stratospheric response to global warming. Citation: Winter| B.| and M. S. Bourqui (2011)| The impact of surface temperature variability on the climate change response in the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L08808| doi: 10.1029/2011GL047011. 12358,2011,2,4,The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields,With current annual production at over 600 million tonnes| wheat is the third largest crop in the world behind corn and rice| and an essential source of carbohydrates for millions of people. While wheat is grown over a wide range of environments| it is common in the major wheat-producing countries for grain filling to occur when soil moisture is declining and temperature is increasing. Average global temperatures have increased over the last decades and are predicted to continue rising| along with a greater frequency of extremely hot days. Such events have already been reported for major wheat growing regions in the world. However| the direct impact of past temperature variability and changes in averages and extremes on wheat production has not been quantified. Attributing changes in observed yields over recent decades to a single factor such as temperature is not possible due to the confounding effects of other factors. By using simulation modelling| we were able to separate the impact of temperature from other factors and show that the effect of temperature on wheat production has been underestimated. Surprisingly| observed variations in average growing-season temperatures of +/- 2 degrees C in the main wheat growing regions of Australia can cause reductions in grain production of up to 50%. Most of this can be attributed to increased leaf senescence as a result of temperatures > 34 degrees C. Temperature conditions during grain filling in the major wheat growing regions of the world are similar to the Australian conditions during grain filling. With average temperatures and the frequency of heat events projected to increase world-wide with global warming| yield reductions due to higher temperatures during the important grain-filling stage alone could substantially undermine future global food security. Adaptation strategies need to be considered now to prevent substantial yield losses in wheat from increasing future heat stress. 3263,2011,2,4,The impacts of extreme and fluctuating temperatures on trait-mediated indirect aphid-parasitoid interactions,1. Global climate change models predict an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme temperature events. These temperature events| heatwaves for example| will impact a wide range of physiological and behavioural processes| particularly in ectotherms| and may therefore influence interactions between species. 2. Anti-predator responses may be more costly under more severe temperature regimes and therefore trait-mediated disturbance could lead to high mortality or reduced reproduction under extreme and fluctuating temperature regimes. 3. We examined the impacts of extreme and fluctuating temperatures on trait-mediated indirect interactions in an aphid-parasitoid community. 4. In treatments that isolated the effects of trait-mediated disturbance from the effects of foraging parasitoids we found that an increase in both the amplitude and frequency of peak temperatures reduced aphid numbers and provided evidence that the cost of trait-mediated disturbance could increase under frequent periods of high temperature. Aphid dispersal also increased with more frequent periods of high temperature. 5. In treatments where female wasps were allowed to freely forage (direct + trait-mediated effects)| there was no evidence that extreme and fluctuating temperatures influenced the wasp's foraging ability. Exposure to extreme fluctuating temperatures did not influence the offspring production of exposed wasps or the position of the mummies within the plots. 12350,2011,3,3,The Importance of Determining Carbon Sequestration and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential in Ornamental Horticulture,Over the past three decades| one issue that has received significant attention from the scientific community is climate change and the possible impacts on the global environment. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration along with other trace gases [i.e.| methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O)] are widely believed to be the driving factors behind global warming. Much of the work on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and carbon (C) sequestration has been conducted in row crop and forest systems; however| virtually no work has focused on contributions from sectors of the specialty crop industry such as ornamental horticulture. Ornamental horticulture is an industry that impacts rural| suburban| and urban landscapes. Although this industry may have some negative impacts on the global environment (e.g.| CO(2) and trace gas efflux)| it also has potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase C sequestration. The work described here outlines the causes and environmental impacts of climate change| the role of agriculture in reducing emissions and sequestering C| and potential areas in ornamental horticulture container-grown plant production in which practices could be altered to increase C sequestration and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. 11562,2011,3,4,The influence of carbon dioxide trading scheme on economic dispatch of generators,This paper aims at probing into the topic of power units' operation and dispatch based on Carbon Dioxide (CO(2)) trading scheme. The trading cost of CO(2) emission is embedded into the traditional economic dispatch model| which will be solved by the New Particle Swarm Optimization (NPSO). By considering the CO(2) trading scheme| the influences of the various strategies for unit's dispatch are simulated and analyzed in this paper. The proposed method| NPSO is developed in such a way that PSO with Constriction Factor (PSO-CF) algorithm is applied as a based level search. NPSO introduces two operators| "Random Particles" and "Fine-Tuning" into the PSO-CF algorithm to improve the drawback of searching global optimum and make the search method more efficient at the end of search. The efficiency and ability of NPSO is demonstrated by the six generating units. Simulation results indicated that reasonable solutions provide a practical and flexible framework for power sectors. They can be also used for generating alternatives and thus help decision makers to obtain the goals of minimal operation cost under their desired emission's policies. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12185,2011,2,4,The influence of climate and topography in patterns of territory establishment in a range-expanding bird,The Dartford Warbler Sylvia undata has recently expanded its range northwards and upwards in the UK| consistent with the hypothesis that this cold-sensitive species has responded to a warming climate. We interrogated distribution data| collected during four national surveys of this species between 1974 and 2006| to assess whether this large-scale range expansion has been accompanied by finer-scale changes in topographic characteristics of breeding locations. Within sites occupied in successive surveys| there was some evidence of limited altitudinal expansion between surveys. Within wider landscapes occupied in successive surveys| the preceding winter climate tended to be harsher at newly colonized sites than at sites that had already been occupied in the previous survey| while territories in newly colonized sites also tended to be on steeper slopes| especially if at higher altitude| and (in 1994 only) to be more south-facing. Territories in sites that had already been occupied in the previous survey tended to be lower altitude| less steep and more north-facing than territories in newly colonized landscapes. In 2006 only| the winter climate was significantly milder in newly colonized landscapes than in already occupied sites. The combined effects of a changing climate and topography may have influenced the pattern of in-filling in the existing range| while colonization of distant areas| especially more latterly| may have been facilitated by a combination of increased dispersal pressure from the existing range and warming of climate which made higher altitude habitat in the new areas more suitable for occupancy. Careful consideration needs to be given to the importance of fine-scale topographical variation in determining species' responses to climate change in order to underpin robust adaptation strategies. 12269,2011,3,3,The influence of organic and inorganic fertiliser application rates on UK biomass crop sustainability,Bioenergy and energy crops are an important part of the UK's renewable energy strategy to reach its greenhouse gas reduction target of 80% by 2050. Ensuring the sustainability of biomass feedstocks requires a greater understanding of all aspects of energy crop production| their ecological impacts and yields. This work compares the life-cycle environmental impact of natural gas and biomass from two energy crop systems grown under typical UK agronomic practice. As reported in previous studies the energy crops provide significant reductions in global warming potential (GWP) compared to natural gas. Compared to no fertiliser application| applying inorganic fertiliser increases the GWP by 2% and applying sewage sludge increases the GWP by a lesser extent. In terms of an equivalent GWP savings per unit area of land| the emissions associated with fertiliser production and application can be offset by a yield increase of <0.2 t/ha. However| very large increases in eutrophication and acidification levels are incurred compared to the natural gas reference case when applying either fertiliser. For sewage sludge the impact of varying the allocation factor between the function of wastewater treatment and that of crop growth is also illustrated. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3409,2011,2,4,The Influence of Recent Climate Change on Tree Height Growth Differs with Species and Spatial Environment,Tree growth has been reported to increase in response to recent global climate change in controlled and semi-controlled experiments| but few studies have reported response of tree growth to increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration in natural environments. This study addresses how recent global climate change has affected height growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) and black spruce (Picea mariana Mill B. S.) in their natural environments. We sampled 145 stands dominated by aspen and 82 dominated by spruce over the entire range of their distributions in British Columbia| Canada. These stands were established naturally after fire between the 19(th) and 20(th) centuries. Height growth was quantified as total heights of sampled dominant and co-dominant trees at breast-height age of 50 years. We assessed the relationships between 50-year height growth and environmental factors at both spatial and temporal scales. We also tested whether the tree growth associated with global climate change differed with spatial environment (latitude| longitude and elevation). As expected| height growth of both species was positively related to temperature variables at the regional scale and with soil moisture and nutrient availability at the local scale. While height growth of trembling aspen was not significantly related to any of the temporal variables we examined| that of black spruce increased significantly with stand establishment date| the anomaly of the average maximum summer temperature between May-August| and atmospheric CO(2) concentration| but not with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Furthermore| the increase of spruce height growth associated with recent climate change was higher in the western than in eastern part of British Columbia. This study demonstrates that the response of height growth to recent climate change| i.e.| increasing temperature and atmospheric CO(2) concentration| did not only differ with tree species| but also their growing spatial environment. 12709,2011,2,4,The influence of temperature and humidity on the incidence of hand| foot| and mouth disease in Japan,Background: The increasing evidence for rapid global climate change has highlighted the need for investigations examining the relationship between weather variability and infectious diseases. However| the impact of weather fluctuations on hand| foot| and mouth disease (HFMD)| which primarily affects children| is not well understood. Methods: We acquired data related to cases of HFMD and weather parameters of temperature and humidity in Fukuoka| Japan between 2000 and 2010| and used time-series analyses to assess the possible relationship of weather variability with pediatric HFMD cases| adjusting for seasonal and interannual variations. Results: Our analysis revealed that the weekly number of HFMD cases increased by 11.2% (95% CI: 3.2-19.8) for every 1 degrees C increase in average temperature and by 4.7% (95% CI: 2.4-7.2) for every 1% increase in relative humidity. Notably| the effects of temperature and humidity on HFMD infection were most significant in children under the age of 10 years. Conclusions: Our study provides quantitative evidence that the number of HFMD cases increased significantly with increasing average temperature and relative humidity| and suggests that preventive measures for limiting the spread of HFMD| particularly in younger children| should be considered during extended periods of high temperature and humidity. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12144,2011,4,4,The influence of tides and earthquakes in global climate changes,Global low-temperature damages and heavy snow have occurred frequently after Sumatra earthquake tsunami on December 26| 2004. The "hypothesis of the oceanic earthquakes adjusting climate" proposed by Guo Zeng-jian and the "hypothesis of the tides adjusting climate" proposed by Charles D. Keeling are a reasonable explanation. According to these theories| the globe temperature after 2005 will be lower. The low temperature and heavy snow occur in northern hemisphere from Nov 2009 to Jan 2010. Now western scientists also acknowledge the objective fact that the natural climate changes from 2000 to 2010 offset global warming effect. Lunar oscillations explain an intriguing 60-year cycle in the world's temperature. The great earthquake in ocean and its margin can bring the cool water in the deep ocean up to the ocean surface and make the global climate cold. Sunspot and tide are closely related together| not only have same cycles| but also have one to one correspondence. In this paper| the relation of the strongest earthquake| the strongest tide| low temperature and Pacific Decade Oscillation are discussed.
12827,2011,4,3,The integrated global temperature change potential (iGTP) and relationships between emission metrics,The Kyoto Protocol compares greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) using the global warming potential (GWP) with a 100 yr time-horizon. The GWP was developed| however| to illustrate the difficulties in comparing GHGs. In response| there have been many critiques of the GWP and several alternative emission metrics have been proposed. To date| there has been little focus on understanding the linkages between| and interpretations of| different emission metrics. We use an energy balance model to mathematically link the absolute GWP| absolute global temperature change potential (AGTP)| absolute ocean heat perturbation (AOHP)| and integrated AGTP. For pulse emissions| energy conservation requires that AOHP D AGWP - iAGTP/lambda and hence AGWP and iAGTP are closely linked and converge as AOHP decays to zero. When normalizing the metrics with CO(2) (GWP| GTP| and iGTP)| we find that the iGTP and GWP are similar numerically for a wide range of GHGs and time-horizons| except for very short-lived species. The similarity between the iGTP(X) and GWP(X) depends on how well a pulse emission of CO(2) can substitute for a pulse emission of X across a range of time-horizons. The ultimate choice of emission metric(s) and time-horizon(s) depends on policy objectives. To the extent that limiting integrated temperature change over a specific time-horizon is consistent with the broader objectives of climate policy| our analysis suggests that the GWP represents a relatively robust| transparent and policy-relevant emission metric. 12249,2011,2,4,The January 2009 anomalous precipitation associated with the "Tail-end of the Cold Front" weather system in Northern and Eastern Mindanao (Philippines): Natural hazards| impacts and risk reductions,In the first half of January 2009| the southern Philippine island of Mindanao was overwhelmed by numerous natural disasters caused by the passage of the tail-end of the cold front. This otherwise ordinary weather condition was accompanied by unusually heavy precipitation sustained over a period of several days. This triggered numerous landslides and caused many drainage systems to swell| flooding huge tracts of low lying areas that have not experienced similar events in the recent past. Many communities were caught unprepared for the calamity. The amount and extent of damage reflect both the magnitude of the natural disaster itself and the community's nominal level of disaster-preparedness. In view of the increasing atmospheric moisture levels and the likelihood that global warming will affect the weather patterns| there is a possibility that similar weather disturbances can become more frequent. Therefore| there is an urgent need for disaster risk management programs to be developed or enhanced at the local community level especially in areas most vulnerable to weather-related natural hazards| in light of changing global climatic patterns. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12282,2011,3,3,The Kyoto Protocol and the Private Forest Policy of Local Governments in Japan,National government policies on preventing global warming are becoming increasingly important in Japan| especially since the Kyoto Protocol became effective in 2005| and the first commitment period began in 2008. The Forestry Agency has combined policies promoting domestic forestry with those to prevent global warming and has developed a 10-year action plan. However| the forest resource database and related statistics represent serious problems in the forest management system in Japan and in the administrative work of the prefectural governments that manage the database. The database contains much incorrect data| which is difficult to correct because of insufficient budget and staff. The budget problem has seriously affected the entire administrative section of the Forestry Agency since the 1990s. Environmental taxes related to forests have recently been introduced in many prefectures| although the total revenue generated is small. The basic problem with the database is that the National Land Survey is incomplete and| consequently| the forest land size information in the database is unreliable. Furthermore| because prefectural governments are not required to report statistics on timber harvests| the cutting volume in each municipality is uncertain. Considering this situation| it may be difficult for the private forest sector to contribute greatly to the Kyoto Protocol without changes in the forest management system by both national and prefectural governments. 12592,2011,2,4,The larval sponge holobiont exhibits high thermal tolerance,Marine sponges are critical components of benthic environments; however| their sessile habit| requirement to filter large volumes of water and complex symbiotic partnerships make them particularly vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. We assessed the effect of elevated seawater temperature on bacterial communities in larvae of the Great Barrier Reef sponge| Rhopaloeides odorabile. In contrast to the strict thermal threshold of 32 degrees C previously identified in adult R. odorabile| larvae exhibit a markedly higher thermal tolerance| with no adverse health effects detected at temperatures below 36 degrees C. Similarly| larval microbial communities were conserved at temperatures up to 34 degrees C with a highly significant shift occurring after 24 h at 36 degrees C. This shift involved the loss of previously described symbionts (in particular the Nitrospira| Chloroflexi and a Roseobacter lineage) and the appearance of new Gammaproteobacteria not detected at lower temperatures. Here| we demonstrated that sponge larvae maintain highly stable symbioses at seawater temperatures exceeding those that are predicted under current climate change scenarios. In addition| by revealing that the shift in microbial composition occurs in conjunction with necrosis and mortality of larvae at 36 degrees C we have provided additional evidence of the strong link between host health and the stability of symbiont communities. 3153,2011,2,4,The long summer: Pre-wintering temperatures affect metabolic expenditure and winter survival in a solitary bee,The impact of climate change on insect populations depends on specific life cycle traits and physiological adaptations. The solitary bee Osmia lignaria winters as a pre-emergent adult| and requires a period of cold temperature for winter diapause completion. It is a univoltine species| and diapause induction does not depend on photoperiod. To understand the potential effects of longer summers on O. lignaria populations| we exposed individuals to three treatments simulating early| mid and late winter arrivals| and measured respiration rates| metabolic expenditure| weight loss| fat body depletion| lipid levels and winter mortality. The early-winter treatment disrupted diapause development| but had no apparent negative effects on fitness. In contrast| late-winter bees had a greater energetic expenditure (1.5-fold)| weight (1.4-fold) and lipid (2-fold) loss| greater fat body depletion| and a 19% increase in mortality compared to mid-winter bees. We also monitored adult eclosion and arrival of winter temperatures under natural conditions in four years. We found a positive correlation between mean degree-day accumulation during pre-wintering (a measure of asynchrony between adult eclosion and winter arrival) and yearly winter mortality. Individually| bees experiencing greater degree-day accumulations exhibited reduced post-winter longevity. Timing of adult eclosion in O. lignaria is dependent on the duration of the prepupal period| which occurs in mid-summer| is also diapause-mediated| and is longer in populations from southerly latitudes. In a global warming scenario| we expect long summer diapause phenotypes to replace short summer diapause phenotypes| effectively maintaining short pre-wintering periods in spite of delayed winter arrivals. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3162,2011,2,4,The Mean and Variance of Environmental Temperature Interact to Determine Physiological Tolerance and Fitness,Global climate change poses one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature| but changes in thermal variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the combined effects of the mean and variance of temperature on thermal tolerances| organismal survival| and population growth in Drosophila melanogaster. Because the performance of ectotherms relates nonlinearly to temperature| we predicted that responses to thermal variation (+/-0 degrees or +/-5 degrees C) would depend on the mean temperature (17 degrees or 24 degrees C). Consistent with our prediction| thermal variation enhanced the rate of population growth (r(max)) at a low mean temperature but depressed this rate at a high mean temperature. The interactive effect on fitness occurred despite the fact that flies improved their heat and cold tolerances through acclimation to thermal conditions. Flies exposed to a high mean and a high variance of temperature recovered from heat coma faster and survived heat exposure better than did flies that developed at other conditions. Relatively high survival following heat exposure was associated with low survival following cold exposure. Recovery from chill coma was affected primarily by the mean temperature; flies acclimated to a low mean temperature recovered much faster than did flies acclimated to a high mean temperature. To develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change| one must consider the interactions between the mean environmental temperature and the variance of environmental temperature. 12650,2011,4,4,The mechanics of intermittent methane venting at South Hydrate Ridge inferred from 4D seismic surveying,Sea floor methane vents and seeps direct methane generated by microbial and thermal decompositions of organic matter in sediment into the oceans and atmosphere. Methane vents contribute to ocean acidification| global warming| and providing a long-term (e.g. 500-4000 years; Powell et al.| 1998) life-sustaining role for unique chemosynthetic biological communities. However| the role methane vents play in both climate change and chemosynthetic life remains controversial primarily because we do not understand long-term methane flux and the mechanisms that control it (Milkov et al.| 2004; Shakhova et al.| 2010; Van Dover| 2000). Vents are inherently dynamic and flux varies greatly in magnitude and even flow direction over short time periods (hours-to-days)| often tidally-driven (Boles et al.| 2001; Tryon et al.| 1999). But| it remains unclear if flux changes at vents occur on the order of the life-cycle of various species within chemosynthetic communities (months| years| to decades Leifer et al.| 2004; Torres et al.| 2001) and thus impacts their sustainability. Here| using repeat high-resolution 3D seismic surveys acquired in 2000 and 2008| we demonstrate in 40 that Hydrate Ridge| a vent off the Oregon coast has undergone significant reduction of methane flow and complete interruption in just the past few years. In the subsurface| below a frozen methane hydrate layer| free gas appears to be migrating toward the vent| but currently there is accumulating gas that is unable to reach the seafloor through the gas hydrate layer. At the same time| abundant authigenic carbonates show that the system has been active for several thousands of years. Thus| it is likely that activity has been intermittent because gas hydrates clog the vertical flow pathways feeding the seafloor vent. Back pressure building in the subsurface will ultimately trigger hydrofracturing that will revive fluid-flow to the seafloor. The nature of this mechanism implies regular recurring flow interruptions and methane flux changes that threaten the viability of chemosynthetic life| but simultaneously and enigmatically sustains it. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12848,2011,5,3,The Middle Miocene climate as modelled in an atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model,We present simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model for the Middle Miocene 15 million years ago. The model is insofar more consistent than previous models because it captures the essential interactions between ocean and atmosphere and between atmosphere and vegetation. The Middle Miocene topography| which alters both large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulations| causes a global warming of 0.7 K compared to present day. Higher than present-day CO2 levels of 480 and 720 ppm cause a global warming of 2.8 and 4.9 K. The associated water vapour feedback enhances the greenhouse effect which leads to a polar amplification of the warming. These results suggest that higher than present-day CO2 levels are necessary to drive the warm Middle Miocene climate| also because the dynamic vegetation model simulates a denser vegetation which is in line with fossil records. However| we do not find a flatter than present-day equator-to-pole temperature gradient as has been suggested by marine and terrestrial proxies. Instead| a compensation between atmospheric and ocean heat transport counteracts the flattening of the temperature gradient. The acclaimed role of the large-scale ocean circulation in redistributing heat cannot be supported by our results. Including full ocean dynamics| therefore| does not solve the problem of the flat temperature gradient during the Middle Miocene. 12850,2011,3,4,The Model of Smart Grid Reliability Evaluation,S. Gudzius| S. Gecys| L. A. Markevicius| R. Miliune| A. Morkvenas. The Model of Smart Grid Reliability Evaluation // Electronics and Electrical Engineering. - Kaunas: Technologija| 2011. - No. 10(116). - P. 25-28. Smart electricity grids| the essence of development| prospects and trends of electrical grids are described| the model of reliability evaluation is composed in this work. Smart grids enable traditional energy consumers to become active participants in energy markets who can choose when to consume or generate energy in the network. Many countries around the world are promoting the network upgrade| also dealing with energy independence| global warming| energy efficiency and security of supply issues. The system development of smart electrical grid is performed using small distributed generation sources which should be generally evaluated - electric network structure and locations change according to recorded speed of isolation expenditure resources and electric network reliability parameters change. III. 3| bibl. 9| tabl. 1 (in English; abstracts in English and Lithuanian). 12328,2011,2,3,The most temperature-adapted corals have an Achilles' Heel,The corals of the Persian/Arabian Gulf are better adapted to temperature fluctuations than elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific. The Gulf is an extreme marine environment displaying the highest known summer water temperatures for any reef area. The small and shallow sea can be considered a good analogue to future conditions for the rest of the world's oceans under global warming. The fact that corals can persist in such a demanding environment indicates that they have been able to acclimatize and selectively adapt to elevated temperature. The implication being that colonies elsewhere may be able to follow suit. This in turn provides hope that corals may| given sufficient time| similarly adapt to survive even in an impoverished form| under conditions of acidification-driven lowering of CaCO(3) saturation state| a further consequence of raised atmospheric CO(2). This paper demonstrates| however| that the uniquely adapted corals of the Gulf may| within the next three centuries| be threatened by a chronic habitat shortage brought about by the dissolution of the lithified seabed on which they rely for colonisation. This will occur due to modifications in the chemical composition of the Gulf waters due to climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12613,2011,2,4,The observed sensitivity of high clouds to mean surface temperature anomalies in the tropics,Cloud feedback represents the source of largest diversity in projections of future warming. Observational constraints on both the sign and magnitude of the feedback are limited| since it is unclear how the natural variability that can be observed is related to secular climate change| and analyses have rarely been focused on testable physical theories for how clouds should respond to climate change. In this study we use observations from a suite of satellite instruments to assess the sensitivity of tropical high clouds to interannual tropical mean surface temperature anomalies. We relate cloud changes to a physical governing mechanism that is sensitive to the vertical structure of warming. Specifically| we demonstrate that the mean and interannual variability in both the altitude and fractional coverage of tropical high clouds as measured by CloudSat| the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer| the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder| and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project are well diagnosed by upper tropospheric convergence computed from the mass and energy budget of the clear-sky atmosphere. Observed high clouds rise approximately isothermally in accordance with theory and exhibit an overall reduction in coverage when the tropics warms| similar to their behavior in global warming simulations. Such cloud changes cause absorbed solar radiation to increase more than does outgoing longwave radiation| resulting in a positive but statistically insignificant net high cloud feedback in response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The results suggest that the convergence metric based on simple mass and energy budget constraints may be a powerful tool for understanding observed and modeled high cloud behavior and for evaluating the realism of modeled high cloud changes in response to a variety of forcings. 11850,2011,3,4,The Optimisation of Stand-Alone Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems Using HOMER,The aim of this paper is to determine the possibility of the stand-alone hybrid renewable energy system which able to satisfy the electric load demand by using HOMER Software. Besides| it is always desirable to have an environmental friendly energy system in order to maintain its natural beauty and prevent the effect of global warming. As the project economics is concerned| it is necessary to indentify the system life cycle cost or Total Net Present Cost| TNPC| of the optimal hybrid energy system| where this also can be analysing by optimization in HOMER. For observing the realistic effect has on power system designed and it economics| it is also important to assess the effect of uncertainty or a change in sensitivity variable such wind speed and fuel price which this can be done by performing sensitivity analysis. Copyright (C) 2011 Praise Worthy Prize S.r.l. - All rights reserved. 3247,2011,4,4,The Persistently Variable "Background" Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change,Recent measurements demonstrate that the "background" stratospheric aerosol layer is persistently variable rather than constant| even in the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Several independent data sets show that stratospheric aerosols have increased in abundance since 2000. Near-global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosol changes over this period of about -0.1 watt per square meter| reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred. Observations from earlier periods are limited but suggest an additional negative radiative forcing of about -0.1 watt per square meter from 1960 to 1990. Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase. 3350,2011,2,4,The Possible Effect of Climate Warming on Northern Limits of Cropping System and Crop Yield in China,Significantly increasing temperature since the 1980s in China has become a consensus under the background of global climate change and how climate change affects agriculture or even cropping systems has attracted more and more attention from Chinese government and scientists. In this study| the possible effects of climate warming on the national northern| limits of cropping systems| the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice| and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation in China from 1981 to 2007 were analyzed. Also| the possible change of crop yield caused by planting limits displacement during the periods 1950s-1981 and 1981-2007 was compared and discussed. The recognized calculation methods of agricultural climatic indices were employed. According to the indices of climatic regionalization for cropping systems| the national northern limits of cropping systems| winter wheat and double rice| and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation during two periods| including the 1950s-1980 and 1981-2007| were drawn with ArcGIS software. Compared with the situation during the 1950s-1980| the northern limits of double cropping system during 1981-2007 showed significant spatial displacement in Shaanxi| Shanxi| Hebei| and Liaoning provinces and Beijing municipality| China. The northern limits of triple cropping system showed the maximum spatial displacement in Hunan| Hubei| Anhui| Jiangsu| and Zhejiang provinces| China. Without considering variety change and social economic factors| the per unit area grain yield of main planting patterns would increase about 54-106% if single cropping system was replaced by double cropping system| which turned out to be 27-58% if double cropping system was replaced by triple cropping system. In Liaoning| Hebei| Shanxi| Shaanxi| Gansu| and Qinghai provinces| Inner Mongolia and Ningxia autonomous regions| China| the northern limits of winter wheat during 1981-2007 moved northward and expanded westward in different degrees| compared with those during the 1950s-1980. Taking Hebei Province as an example| the northern limits of winter wheat moved northward| and the per unit area grain yield would averagely increase about 25% in the change region if the spring wheat was replaced by winter wheat. In Zhejiang| Anhui. Hubei| and Hunan provinces| China| the planting northern limits of double rice moved northward| and the per unit area grain yield would increase in different degrees only from the perspective of heat resource. The stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward in most regions| which was caused by the de crease of local precipitation in recent years. During the past 50 yr| climate warming made the national northern limits of cropping systems move northward in different degrees| the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice both moved northward| and the cropping system change would cause the increase of per unit area grain yield in the change region. However| the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward due to the decrease of precipitation. 11621,2011,2,3,The potential impact of climate change on typhoon-triggered landslides in Taiwan| 2010-2099,In the western North Pacific| including Taiwan| typhoons (tropical cyclones) and rainfall rates are predicted to intensify as a result of climate change. Because typhoons are the major triggers of shallow landslides in Taiwan| landslide activity is expected to increase as global warming continues. To assess the worst scenario of landslide occurrence in a mountainous watershed till the end of the century| this study developed a method to select a global climate model (GCM) from 21 available GCMs and correct its monthly precipitation data| before downscaling annual maximum (24-h) rainfall from the corrected GCM data as input to the factor-of-safety model for landslide prediction. Average annual maximum rainfall is expected to increase from 322 mm in 1960-2008 to 371 mm in 2010-2099. Average total unstable area is expected to increase from 1135 ha in 1960-2008 to 1280 ha in 2010-2099| a 12% increase. As a first attempt to assess landslide activity due to global warming| this study is useful as a reference for watershed management in Taiwan. The results must be evaluated in light of uncertainties caused by the correction and downscaling of GCM data and the input parameters to the slope stability model. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12793,2011,3,4,The primary sources of carbon loss during the crop-establishment period in a subtropical Oxisol under contrasting tillage systems,The physical protection of mineralizable carbon (C) in aggregates has been identified as the primary mechanism of soil C stabilization. Therefore| it is possible to hypothesize that the disruption of aggregate by soil tillage is a key process driving C losses during the crop-establishment period. However| these findings are based on studies performed in temperate soils. Limited information is available for studies performed in subtropical and tropical soils| especially in Oxisols| which are rich in oxides that provides chemical C stabilization. This study was performed in southern Brazil in a long-term soil-management experiment carried out in a clay Typic Haplorthox in Cruz Alta (RS). During the 22nd year of the experiment| carbon dioxide (CO2-C) emissions| temperature| and soil moisture were intensively evaluated over a 21-day summer crop-establishment period using a closed infrared CO2-flux chamber. The cropping system investigated was an intensive crop rotation following the soil input of winter-cover crops (black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb) + common vetch (Vicia sativa L) under two contrasting tillage systems| conventional tillage (CT) and no-till (NT). The apparent contributions to CO2-C losses by resident soil C associated with aggregate disruption and recent crop-residue C input were assessed in treatments with crop-residue input (+R) and with crop-residue removed (-R). An exponential-decay model was used to fit the differences in CO2-C flux between CT - R and NT - R (apparent aggregate-disruption effect) and between CT + R and CT - R (apparent recent crop-residue C input effect). As expected| the CT + R showed an increase of 72% in CO2-C losses relative to NT + R. During the three-week crop-establishment period| crop-residue C input was the primary source of CO2-C emissions under CT. The CO2-C losses under CT were equivalent to 65% of the aboveground C input by winter cover crops| whereas this value decreased to 35% in NT. Exponential-decay modeling of the data for the first week showed that approximately 20% of the CO2-C losses under CT were related to the exposure of mineralizable resident soil C due by tillage operations. The analysis showed that this value decreased to only 2% for the three-week period. The CO2-C emissions exhibited a positive linear relationship with soil temperature and soil water-filled porosity under NT| but a similar relationship was found only with soil temperature under CT. For this Oxisol during the crop-establishment period| the physical aggregate disruption induced by long-term CT played a secondary role in CO2-C losses relative to the recent crop-residue C input from tillage operations. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3414,2011,2,2,The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a Double CO(2) Climate,The effects of anticipated twenty-first-century global climate change on the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) have been studied using a high-resolution version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) atmospheric GCM. This version of the model is notable for being able to simulate a fairly realistic QBO for present-day conditions including only explicitly resolved nonstationary waves. A long control integration of the model was run with observed climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) appropriate for the late twentieth century| followed by another integration with increased atmospheric CO(2) concentration and SSTs incremented by the projected twenty-first-century warming in a multimodel ensemble of coupled ocean atmosphere runs that were forced by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario of future atmospheric composition. In the experiment for late twenty-first-century conditions the QBO period becomes longer and QBO amplitude weaker than in the late twentieth-century simulation. The downward penetration of the QBO into the lowermost stratosphere is also curtailed in the late twenty-first-century run. These changes are driven by a significant (30%-40%) increase of the mean upwelling in the equatorial stratosphere| and the effect of this enhanced mean circulation overwhelms counteracting influences from strengthened wave fluxes in the warmer climate. The momentum fluxes associated with waves propagating upward into the equatorial stratosphere do strengthen overall by similar to(10%-15%) in the warm simulation| but the increases are almost entirely in zonal phase speed ranges that have little effect on the stratospheric QBO but that would be expected to have important influences in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. 12632,2011,2,3,The ratio of land to ocean temperature change under global warming,The result in climate simulations| supported in the observation-based record| is that the ratio phi - T(L)/T(O)of land-average to ocean-average temperature change is greater than one and varies comparatively modestly as climate changes. This is investigated in results from the CMIP3 data archive of climate change simulations following the B1 and more strongly forced A1B scenarios as well as in 2xCO(2) integrations. The associated precipitation ratio psi = P(L)/P(O) is also considered briefly. The behaviour of I center dot is analyzed in terms of a forcing-response view of the energy balance over land and ocean regions. The analysis indicates that the value of I center dot > 1 is not maintained by separate local balances over land and ocean but by an energetic balance that also involves a change in transport between the regions. The transport change does not restrain the land warming by exporting energy to the ocean region but| rather| the reverse. The anomalous transport is from the ocean to the land region even though the ocean warms less than the land does. Feedbacks in the ocean region| especially in the equatorial Pacific| do not sufficiently counteract the forcing and the result is an excess of energy that is transported to the land. The land warms in order to radiate away both the energy from the forcing over land but also the extra energy imported from the ocean region| thereby maintaining I center dot > 1. This situation can be understood to parallel the SST-forced case in model studies where I center dot > 1 despite the forcing being confined to the ocean area. The climate system is effective in redistributing forcing so that it is the local feedbacks| rather than the pattern of the forcing| that determine the temperature response. Land and ocean averaged quantities and budgets behave in a consistent manner to provide a simplified representation of the changes in temperature and energetic processes that are occurring. The geographical distributions of the terms do not| however| display a strong land/ocean demarcation. The land/ocean average budgets and balances are the residual of processes that vary considerably within the land and ocean boundaries. 12643,2011,4,2,The Recent Progress of Carbon Cycle Research in East Asian,Alongside the increasing of CO(2) released| greenhouse effect on earth became more and more serious over the past century| finally resulted in global warming and sea level rise. To solve the environment problems came from greenhouse effect| scientists around the world carried out many research projects on the globle carbon cycle. Compared with other continents such as Europe and America| East Asia may have more ecological importance in the study of global carbon cycle. In 2007| an international joint research project (the A3 Foresight Program)| aiming to investigate the carbon sources and sinks in East Asia| was launched| which is founded by the national foundations of China| Japan and South Korea. To reflect the main outcomes in the past three years from this program| the journal Science China Life Science published a special issue "Carbon Budget in East Asian Ecosystem" in 2010 (Vol. 53| No. 7| 2010). This issue contains 14 contributions categorized into 4 parts| including carbon stocks and their regional variations| changes in carbon sources and sinks for different forest ecosystems| carbon stocks and changes in grassland and farmland ecosystems| and new approaches to carbon cycle research. The main points and significations of these articles are comprehensively commentated. 12874,2011,2,4,THE RECONSTRUCTION OF THE WATER REGIME IN LOWLAND FORESTS IN SUPPORT OF SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT,Amongst the existing forest types in Europe| the specific biological function of water is nowhere more distinctive than in the lowland forest ecosystems. Consequently no existing forest types are more shaped by historic hydrologic conditions| altered by manmade deviations from the natural water regime and vulnerable to consequences of global warming. The lowermost parts of the lowland forests| the wetlands| present the transitional zones between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems i.e. ponds| lakes| streams and rivers. Nowadays| due to excessive urbanization and the spread of agriculture| the total area of lowland forests and wetlands has been significantly reduced. One of the largest complexes of alluvial floodplain wetlands and lowland forests in Europe are situated in the South-East Europe| in the Sava and Drava River basins| tributaries to the Danube River The Sava River is a unique example of a river where the floodplains are still intact| supporting both flood alleviation and biodiversity. Continental lowland forests in Croatia cover an area of more than 200.000 ha with a significant role in forestry production| flood reduction| recharging groundwater reserves| as well as filtering pollutants. The natural forest vegetation consists of mainly hardwood tree species such as the common oak (Quercus robur L.)| field ash (Fraxinus excelsior Vahl.)| common hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L.) and softwood species such as black alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.) Geartn.)| poplars (Populus sp.) and willows (Salix sp.). For the biological diversity of lowland forests and attached wetlands is strongly important specific combination of hydrology and soils. The development of these forests in history was determined by regular seasonal alternations of groundwater tables (hydro period) and periodic flooding. This paper presents the possibilities for the re-establishment of the water regime of lowland forests as one option to reduce the impact of climate change in the future. To reduce negative impacts of anthropogenic alternations in the groundwater regime from the past and to attenuate slow down future very possible prolongation of droughts and water scarcity in the lowlands| various forest managerial and engineering practices could be considered. Basically| there are potentially two main contrasted measures of soil water balance manipulation: drainage of soils (through drainage ditches and channels) which contribute to decreasing the groundwater tables and forest management i.e. (tendering and thinning) which contribute to increased soil water content and increase in the groundwater level. Through these water table management practices| the amount of soil water required for the survival of lowland forests could be maintained to some degree to attenuate the negative hydrologic trends and natural hazards such as droughts. The comprehensive methodological review of activities that must precede such reconstruction activities are presented. As the initial segment all the major components of floodplain ecosystems - the morphology of the terrain| hydrography| soils stratigraphy| vegetation and anthropogenic influences - should be assessed. As a next step methodological options towards how to obtain the knowledge of the natural water regime prior anthropogenic hydrotechnical activities which caused the creation of the ecosystem in its current form are presented. For this purpose the morphology of hydromorphic soils i.e. relict indicators of natural water regime in lowland habitats are assessed. The next step includes the spatial determination of critical areas orhot spots| threatened by excessive falls in the groundwater level on which specific measures can be applied to return to natural water regime conditions (i.e. water retention in dry riverbeds). 11851,2011,2,4,The recycling rate of atmospheric moisture over the past two decades (1988-2009),Numerical models predict that the recycling rate of atmospheric moisture decreases with time at the global scale| in response to global warming. A recent observational study (Wentz et al 2007 Science 317 233-5) did not agree with the results from numerical models. Here| we examine the recycling rate by using the latest data sets for precipitation and water vapor| and suggest a consistent view of the global recycling rate of atmospheric moisture between numerical models and observations. Our analyses show that the recycling rate of atmospheric moisture has also decreased over the global oceans during the past two decades. In addition| we find different temporal variations of the recycling rate in different regions when exploring the spatial pattern of the recycling rate. In particular| the recycling rate has increased in the high-precipitation region around the equator (i.e.| the intertropical convergence zone) and decreased in the low-precipitation region located either side of the equator over the past two decades. Further exploration suggests that the temporal variation of precipitation is stronger than that of water vapor| which results in the positive trend of the recycling rate in the high-precipitation region and the negative trend of the recycling rate in the low-precipitation region. 11887,2011,4,3,The Relationship between Land-Ocean Surface Temperature Contrast and Radiative Forcing,Previous work has demonstrated that observed and modeled climates show a near-time-invariant ratio of mean land to mean ocean surface temperature change under transient and equilibrium global warming. This study confirms this in a range of atmospheric models coupled to perturbed sea surface temperatures (SSTs)| slab (thermodynamics only) oceans| and a fully coupled ocean. Away from equilibrium| it is found that the atmospheric processes that maintain the ratio cause a land-to-ocean heat transport anomaly that can be approximated using a two-box energy balance model. When climate is forced by increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentration| the heat transport anomaly moves heat from land to ocean| constraining the land to warm in step with the ocean surface| despite the small heat capacity of the land. The heat transport anomaly is strongly related to the top-of-atmosphere radiative flux imbalance| and hence it tends to a small value as equilibrium is approached. In contrast| when climate is forced by prescribing changes in SSTs| the heat transport anomaly replaces "missing" radiative forcing over land by moving heat from ocean to land| warming the land surface. The heat transport anomaly remains substantial in steady state. These results are consistent with earlier studies that found that both land and ocean surface temperature changes may be approximated as local responses to global mean radiative forcing. The modeled heat transport anomaly has large impacts on surface heat fluxes but small impacts on precipitation| circulation| and cloud radiative forcing compared with the impacts of surface temperature change. No substantial nonlinearities are found in these atmospheric variables when the effects of forcing and surface temperature change are added. 12096,2011,2,4,The relationship between temperature| oxygen condition and embryo encapsulation in the marine gastropod Chorus giganteus,Intracapsular oxygen availability is one of the main factors affecting embryo development of marine gastropod species with encapsulation. This is because the low solubility and diffusion rate of O(2) in water| plus the low oxygen diffusion rate that the capsule wall presents| reduces oxygen inside capsules. In addition| temperature affects embryo development inside capsules through its effect on embryo metabolic rate and oxygen availability. In spite of both factors being highly correlated and that a synergic effect on embryo development may be expected| there are few studies evaluating temperature and intracapsular oxygen availability simultaneously. In this work we evaluated the role of the capsule wall of the marine gastropod Chorus giganteus as a barrier for oxygen diffusion and its interaction with temperature affecting intracapsular oxygen availability and embryonic development. For that| we cultivated capsules in seawater at three different temperatures| 9| 12 and 15 degrees C| for a time to complete embryo development. Oxygen level was measured inside capsules with and without embryos| and outside capsules at all temperatures. The number of capsules successfully hatched at the end of the experiment| and early and late embryo mortality were recorded. Finally| we measured embryo metabolic rate at the three different temperatures assayed. We found that embryo mortality and abnormal morphological development were more frequent at higher temperatures. Intracapsular oxygen availability decreases at higher temperatures in capsules with and without embryos. These results may be explained by an increase in the total intracapsular embryo metabolic rate (per capsule) with temperature and an inadequate oxygen diffusion rate from seawater through the capsule wall and intracapsular fluid to the embryonic cells. Our findings suggest that encapsulation is constrained at high temperatures in C. giganetus affecting significantly its reproductive success. This may have important consequences in a scenario of global warming. 3307,2011,4,1,The relative contribution of waste heat from power plants to global warming,Evidence on global climate change| being caused primarily by rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere| is perceived as fairly conclusive. It is generally attributed to the enhanced greenhouse effect| resulting from higher levels of trapped heat radiation by increasing atmospheric concentrations of gases such as CO(2) (carbon dioxide). Much of these gases originate from power plants and fossil fuel combustion. However| the fate of vast amounts of waste heat rejected into the environment has evaded serious scholarly research. While 1 kWh electricity generation in a typical condensing coal-fired power plant emits around 1 kg of CO(2)| it also puts about 2 kWh energy into the environment as low grade heat. For nuclear (fission) electricity the waste heat release per kWh is somewhat higher despite much lower CO(2) releases. This paper evaluates the impact of waste heat rejection combined with CO(2) emissions using Finland and California as case examples. The immediate effects of waste heat release from power production and radiative forcing by CO(2) are shown to be similar. However| the long-term (hundred years) global warming by CO(2)-caused radiative forcing is about twenty-five times stronger than the immediate effects| being responsible for around 92% of the heat-up caused by electricity production. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3242,2011,2,4,The relative impact of climate change and urban expansion on peak flows: a case study in central Belgium,An essential part of hydrological research focuses on hydrological extremes| such as river peak flows and associated floods| because of their large impact on economy| environment| and human life. These extremes can be affected by potential future environmental change| including global climate change and land cover change. In this paper| the relative impact of both climate change and urban expansion on the peak flows and flood extent is investigated for a small-scale suburban catchment in Belgium. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to a hydrodynamic model in order to simulate the present-day and future river streamflow. The coupled model was calibrated based on a series of measured water depths and| after model validation| fed with different climate change and urban expansion scenarios in order to evaluate the relative impact of both driving factors on the peak flows and flood extent. The three climate change scenarios that were used (dry| wet winter| wet summer) were based on a statistical downscaling of 58 different RCM and GCM scenario runs. The urban expansion scenarios were based on three different urban growth rates (low| medium| high urban expansion) that were set up by means of an extrapolation of the observed trend of urban expansion. The results suggest that possible future climate change is the main source of uncertainty affecting changes in peak flow and flood extent. The urban expansion scenarios show a more consistent trend. The potential damage related to a flood is| however| mainly influenced by land cover changes that occur in the floodplain. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 11767,2011,5,2,The response of the Walker circulation to Last Glacial Maximum forcing: Implications for detection in proxies,The response of the Walker circulation to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) forcing is analyzed using an ensemble of six coordinated coupled climate model experiments. The tropical atmospheric overturning circulation strengthens in all models in a manner that is dictated by the response of the hydrological cycle to tropical cooling. This response arises from the same mechanism that has been found to explain the weakening of the tropical circulation in response to anthropogenic global warming but with opposite sign. Analysis of the model differences shows that the ascending branch of the Walker circulation strengthens via this mechanism but vertical motion also weakens over areas of the Maritime Continent exposed due to lower sea level. Each model exhibits a different balance between these two mechanisms| and the result is a Pacific Walker circulation response that is not robust. Further| even those models that simulate a stronger Walker circulation during the LGM do not simulate clear patterns of surface cooling| such as La Nina-like cooling or enhanced equatorial cooling| as proposed by previous studies. In contrast| the changes in the Walker circulation have a robust and distinctive signature on the tilt of the equatorial thermocline| as expected from zonal momentum balance. The changes in the Walker circulation also have a clear signature on the spatial pattern of the precipitation changes. A reduction of the east-west salinity contrast in the Indian Ocean is related to the precipitation changes resulting from a weakening of the Indian Walker circulation. These results indicate that proxies of thermocline depth and sea surface salinity can be used to detect actual LGM changes in the Pacific and Indian Walker circulations| respectively| and help to constrain the sensitivity of the Walker circulation to tropical cooling. 3407,2011,2,4,The Response of Vegetation on the Andean Flank in Western Amazonia to Pleistocene Climate Change,A reconstruction of past environmental change from Ecuador reveals the response of lower montane forest on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to glacial-interglacial global climate change. Radiometric dating of volcanic ash indicates that deposition occurred similar to 324|000 to 193|000 years ago during parts of Marine Isotope Stages 9| 7| and 6. Fossil pollen and wood preserved within organic sediments suggest that the composition of the forest altered radically in response to glacial-interglacial climate change. The presence of Podocarpus macrofossils similar to 1000 meters below the lower limit of their modern distribution indicates a relative cooling of at least 5 degrees C during glacials and persistence of wet conditions. Interglacial deposits contain thermophilic palms suggesting warm and wet climates. Hence| global temperature change can radically alter vegetation communities and biodiversity in this region. 12853,2011,2,4,The retreat of large brown seaweeds on the north coast of Spain: the case of Saccorhiza polyschides,Recent changes in kelp distribution along the north coast of Spain are described and analysed through a long-term population study focused on Saccorhiza polyschides. The main purpose of this work was to understand which population processes are more sensitive to increased sea surface temperatures and reductions in the intensity of upwelling episodes in the current scenario of global warming. Data on the distribution of kelp species (old and recent data) were obtained from the literature and compared with current species distributions assessed by field sampling between 2007 and 2010 and covering a transition coastline of 200 km. The long-term population study of Saccorhiza polyschides was conducted at a site close to the edge of its current distribution. Data for recruitment| growth and survival| as well as density and supported biomass of populations collected since the 1990s were analysed using data from the late 1970s for comparison. Kelps on the north coast of Spain have shown a westward retreat since the 1980s. Dense populations of Saccorhiza polyschides| the most important species| and Laminaria ochroleuca have been reduced to small patches and isolated individuals east of Penas Cape (43 degrees 39.4' N; 5 degrees 50.8' W). The long-term study of Saccorhiza polyschides populations showed a collapse in the growth of the sporophyte and very low recruitment from the beginning of this century. The possible causal factors of this population decline and its consequences are considered| suggesting that long warm summer periods (more than 30 consecutive days of seawater temperature > 20 degrees C) could alter kelp performance. 12150,2011,4,3,The role of atmospheric nuclear explosions on the stagnation of global warming in the mid 20th century,This study suggests that the cause of the stagnation in global warming in the mid 20th century was the atmospheric nuclear explosions detonated between 1945 and 1980. The estimated GST drop due to fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions based on the published simulation results by other researchers (a single column model and Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) has served to explain the stagnation in global warming. Atmospheric nuclear explosions can be regarded as full-scale in situ tests for nuclear winter. The non-negligible amount of GST drop from the actual atmospheric explosions suggests that nuclear winter is not just a theory but has actually occurred| albeit on a small scale. The accuracy of the simulations of GST by IPCC would also be improved significantly by introducing the influence of fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions into their climate models; thus| global warming behavior could be more accurately predicted. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12296,2011,2,4,The Role of Changes in the Annual Cycle in Earlier Onset of Climatic Spring in Northern China,Climatic changes in the onset of spring in northern China associated with changes in the annual cycle and with a recent warming trend were quantified using a recently developed adaptive data analysis tool| the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition. The study. was based on a homogenized daily surface air temperature (SAT) dataset for the period 1955-2003. The annual cycle here is referred to as a refined modulated annual cycle (MAC). The results show that spring at Beijing has arrived significantly earlier by about 2.98 d (10 yr)(-1)| of which about 1.85 d (10 yr)(-1) is due to changes in the annual cycle and 1.13 d (10 yr)(-1) due to the long-term warming trend. Variations in the MAC component explain about 92.5% of the total variance in the Beijing daily SAT series and could cause as much as a 20-day shift in the onset of spring from one year to another. The onset of spring has been advancing all over northern China| but more significant in the east than in the west part of the region. These differences are somehow unexplainable by the zonal pattern of the warming trend over the whole region| but can be explained by opposite changes in the spring phase of the MAC| i.e. advancing in the east while delaying in the west. In the east of northern China| the change in the spring phase of MAC explains 40%-60% of the spring onset trend and is attributable to a weakening Asian winter monsoon. The average sea level pressure in Siberia (55 degrees-80 degrees N| 50 degrees-110 degrees E)| an index of the strength of the winter monsoon| could serve as a potential short-term predictor for the onset of spring in the east of northern China. 12774,2011,4,4,The role of cosmic and ionospheric disturbances in global climatic changes and pipeline corrosion,Physical causes controlling the influence of the main cosmic factors on the state of the ionosphere and| further| on weather and climatic phenomena| including the global warming| are investigated. These investigations are based on the Rydberg excitation of the experimentally observed microwave radiation of the Earth's ionosphere by energetic ionospheric electrons. This microwave radiation virtually freely penetrates into the lower atmosphere| providing channels for the influence of solar variability on terrestrial phenomena. The factors causing an anomalous wear of Russian pipeline systems are also analyzed| and the methods for reducing their rapid corrosion through taking into account the influence of heliogeomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances are described. Such investigations are supported by the space experiment on permanent monitoring of the factors controlling heliogeomagnetic activity| i.e.| fluxes of ionizing radiation of the Sun and fluxes of electrons precipitating from the radiation belts. 12714,2011,3,3,The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis,In order to reduce energy-related CO(2) emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements| structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies| carbon sequestration| and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation| this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis| the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO(2) emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role| contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12344,2011,4,3,The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend,Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend| a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former| the model is run using a specified CO(2) growth scenario| while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of +/- 0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus| then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. 11991,2011,3,2,The role of palladium in a hydrogen economy,We are facing accelerated global warming due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases. A hydrogen-based economy is one potential approach toward maintaining our standard of living while lowering carbon dioxide emissions. Palladium is a unique material with a strong affinity to hydrogen owing to both its catalytic and hydrogen absorbing properties. Palladium has the potential to play a major role in virtually every aspect of the envisioned hydrogen economy| including hydrogen purification| storage| detection| and fuel cells. Major aspects of current research and potential applications of palladium-based nanomaterials in various hydrogen technologies are presented in this review. 3264,2011,2,4,The role of weather in mediating the effect of mercury exposure on reproductive success in tree swallows,Mercury is a heavy metal that has contaminated countless ecosystems throughout the world. A large body of literature has documented reproductive| physiological| and behavioral impairments associated with mercury exposure in laboratory settings| but whether and how such effects are manifest in free-living populations remains poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) breeding success at a site with high mercury exposure varied with ambient temperature or precipitation at various points in the breeding cycle. Tree swallows nesting along the South River had significantly elevated blood total mercury (mean +/- A SE: 3.03 +/- A 0.15 mu g/g) compared to swallows breeding on reference sites (mean +/- A SE: 0.16 +/- A 0.005 mu g/g). These high levels of mercury were associated with reduced hatching and fledging success| and contaminated birds produced approximately one less fledgling per nest than their reference counterparts. The magnitude of this difference was weather-dependent: unusually high ambient temperatures encountered early in the nestling period were associated with reduced reproductive output in contaminated| but not in reference| birds. In contrast| little effect of mercury on success of nestlings was observed when temperatures were cooler| and precipitation also had no detectable interaction with mercury. These results provide insight into mechanisms underlying reproductive effects of mercury. In addition| these findings underscore the importance of considering variable environmental conditions when assessing effects of contaminants on free-living wildlife. In particular| projections about the effects of global climate change on ecotoxicological impacts must take into account the kinds of weather-mediated effect demonstrated here. 12637,2011,2,4,The roles of climatic factors in spatial patterns of alien invasive plants from America into China,The roles of climatic factors in plant invasions have drawn intense attention in the past. America was one of the major donors of the invasive plants in China. In this study| we investigated the roles of climatic factors in plant invasions from America into China through Akaike's information criterion model analysis in terms of specific geographical origins| respectively. From south to north| decreasing trends of species diversity were observed on the plants from Central-South America and Mexico| while the greatest alien species diversity in mid-Chinese latitudes was observed on the invaders from North America; For the invaders from Central-South America and Mexico| climatic factors explained most of the spatial variations| while for those from North America| the roles of the climatic factors were weak. The role of the climatic factors in plant invasions may| in some extent| depend on the ecological characters inherited form the geographical origins and their accommodation to the climate of the invaded regions. If the invasive plants were introduced into the region with similar environment to their area of origin| the role of the climatic factors may be shadowed by other factors. However| for the invaders whom were introduced into the regions vastly different from their areas of origin| climatic barriers may be responsible for most of the spatial variations. The invasive plants from Central-South America and Mexico may have strong potential to invade regions at higher latitude in China in the scenario of global warming| while for the invaders from North America| the impacts of global warming may be shadowed by other factors. 11587,2011,2,2,The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2A degrees C with respect to pre-industrial times,In this study the potential future changes in different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2A degrees C with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed| focussing on the role of the different mechanisms leading to these changes. In addition| these changes as well as the underlying mechanisms are compared to the corresponding changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming exceeding 4.5A degrees C| associated with the widely used SRES A1B scenario. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model| each starting from different initial conditions. In one set of simulations (2020-2200)| greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed in such a way that the simulated global warming dioes not exceed 2A degrees C with respect to pre-industrial times. In the other set of simulations (1860-2200)| greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed according to observations until 2000 and according to the SRES A1B scenario after 2000. The study reveals marked changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2A degrees C with respect to pre-industrial conditions| namely an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation despite a weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation. The increase in the monsoon rainfall is related to a variety of different mechanisms| with the intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into the Indian region as the most important one. The weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation is mainly caused by changes in the Walker circulation with large-scale divergence (convergence) in the lower (uppper) troposphere over the Indian Ocean in response to enhanced convective activity over the Indian Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific and reduced convective activity over the western tropical Pacific. These changes in the Walker circulation induce westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at lower (upper) level in the Indian region. The comparison with the changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 4.5A degrees C reveals that both the intensification of the monsoon precipitation and the weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation (particularly in the lower troposphere) are relatively strong (with respect to the magnitude of the projected global warming by the end of the twentieth century for the two scenarios) in the scenario with a global warming of 2A degrees C. The relatively strong intensification of the monsoon rainfall is related to rather strong increases in evaporation over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal| while a rather weak amplification of the meridional temperature gradient between the Indian Ocean and the land areas to the north contributes to the relatively strong reduction of the large-scale monsoon flow. 3306,2011,5,4,The Sima de los Huesos (Burgos| northern Spain): palaeoenvironment and habitats of Homo heidelbergensis during the Middle Pleistocene,Interpreting how environmental dynamics respond to global climate change and how this has affected human evolution and dispersal is an on-going topic of debate. During the early Middle Pleistocene (similar to 0.6 -0.4 Ma)| as compared to earlier| environmental conditions were relatively more stable| with longer climatic cycles alternating between open and forested landscapes. During this interval| humans spread successfully providing an important number of fossil sites where fossils or tools are reported. The Atapuerca-Sima de los Huesos (Burgos| northern Spain) site (Atapuerca-SH) is one of the earliest localities with hominin evidence in the European Middle Pleistocene| with the most important accumulation of Homo heidelbergensis so far. We have analyzed the abundant faunal record from Sima de los Huesos| which is mainly comprised of carnivores| in order to approach an interpretation of the palaeoenvironmental circumstances where these hominids inhabited within the Sierra. Other sites from Sierra de Atapuerca referred to the same Faunal Unit (FU 6)| are roughly contemporaneous| and include important ungulates| which are here analyzed with Atapuerca-SH. Additional information provided by isotopic analysis helps elucidate the ancient ecology of taxa present in Sima de los Huesos allowing for an accurate portrayal of the setting in which humans lived. The timing of the spread of Homo heidelbergensis is dominated by a relative climatic and environmental stability and points to a landscape dominated by savannah-like open woodland. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3429,2011,4,4,The single-process biochemical reaction of Rubisco: A unified theory and model with the effects of irradiance| CO(2) and rate-limiting step on the kinetics of C(3) and C(4) photosynthesis from gas exchange,Photosynthesis is the origin of oxygenic life on the planet| and its models are the core of all models of plant biology| agriculture| environmental quality and global climate change. A theory is presented here| based on single process biochemical reactions of Rubisco| recognizing that: In the light| Rubisco activase helps separate Rubisco from the stored ribulose-1|5-bisphosphate (RuBP)| activates Rubisco with carbamylation and addition of Mg(2+)| and then produces two products| in two steps: (Step 1) Reaction of Rubisco with RuBP produces a Rubisco-enediol complex| which is the carboxylase-oxygenase enzyme (Enco) and (Step 2) Enco captures CO(2) and/or O(2) and produces intermediate products leading to production and release of 3-phosphoglycerate (PGA) and Rubisco. PGA interactively controls (1) the carboxylation-oxygenation| (2) electron transport| and (3) triosephosphate pathway of the Calvin-Benson cycle that leads to the release of glucose and regeneration of RuBP. Initially| the total enzyme participates in the two steps of the reaction transitionally and its rate follows Michaelis-Menten kinetics. But| for a continuous steady state| Rubisco must be divided into two concurrently active segments for the two steps. This causes a deviation of the steady state from the transitional rate. Kinetic models are developed that integrate the transitional and the steady state reactions. They are tested and successfully validated with verifiable experimental data. The single-process theory is compared to the widely used two-process theory of Farquhar et al. (1980. Planta 149| 78-90)| which assumes that the carboxylation rate is either Rubisco-limited at low CO(2) levels such as CO(2) compensation point| or RuBP regeneration-limited at high CO(2). Since the photosynthesis rate cannot increase beyond the two-process theory's Rubisco limit at the CO(2) compensation point| net photosynthesis cannot increase above zero in daylight| and since there is always respiration at night| it leads to progressively negative daily CO(2) fixation with no possibility of oxygenic life on the planet. The Rubisco-limited theory at low CO(2) also contradicts all experimental evidence for low substrate reactions| and for all known enzymes| Rubisco included. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. 11852,2011,4,4,The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future,Recent research has suggested that relatively cold UK winters are more common when solar activity is low (Lockwood et al 2010 Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024001). Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303-29) and records of past solar variations inferred from cosmogenic isotopes (Abreu et al 2008 Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L20109) and geomagnetic activity data (Lockwood et al 2009 Astrophys. J. 700 937-44) suggest that the current grand solar maximum is coming to an end and hence that solar activity can be expected to continue to decline. Combining cosmogenic isotope data with the long record of temperatures measured in central England| we estimate how solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold| relative to the hemispheric mean temperature| if all other factors remain constant. Global warming is taken into account only through the detrending using mean hemispheric temperatures. We show that some predictive skill may be obtained by including the solar effect. 12524,2011,2,4,The temporal and spatial structures of recent and future trends in extreme indices over Korea from a regional climate projection,The temporal and spatial characteristics of trends in extreme indices over Korea between 1971 and 2100 are investigated using daily minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperature and precipitation data from a regional climate projection at 20 km grid spacing. Five temperature-based indices and five precipitation-based indices are selected to comprehensively consider the frequency| intensity| and persistence of extreme events. In addition| Mann-Kendall tests are used to detect the statistical significance of trends in these indices. For validation during the reference period (1971-2000)| the model reasonably simulates the temporal and spatial pattern of the trend. The model captures observed direction and magnitude well in various types of extremes. Indices based on Tmin show a considerable change towards warmer climate conditions while indices based on Tmax do not reveal any distinct trend| implying an asymmetric response of Tmin and Tmax to global warming. Indices of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation show a significant increase| whereas the duration of dry and wet consecutive days shows no change. For future projections| the temperature-based indices exhibit a much more significant and consistent trend than the precipitation-based indices| with statistical significance at the 95% confidence level for all indices. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation are projected to increase in the 21st century| continuing the trend of the reference climate. Although the future projected changes in the duration of consecutive dry and wet days are not statistically significant| the signal becomes more pronounced with respect to the reference simulation. Copyright (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society 3235,2011,3,3,The Urgent Need for Universities to Comprehensively Address Global Climate Change Across Disciplines and Programs,I review the status of scientific| political| and moral problems of global climate change (GCC) and| based on lessons from environmental and sustainability programs in universities| demonstrate that universities have had a lethargic response to urgent needs to mitigate the problems. I explore reasons for the response| and conclude that there is an urgent need for comprehensive and wide-ranging change in universities to help mitigate GCC. My discussion is focused on those within universities as well as those in environmental professions regardless of their areas of specialization. 12027,2011,3,4,The vertical farm: controlled environment agriculture carried out in tall buildings would create greater food safety and security for large urban populations,Over the next 50 years| rapid climate change issues will play a major role in agriculture. It is estimated for every 1A degrees of increase in atmospheric temperature| 10 % of the land where we now grow food crops will be lost. The ability of governments to provide essential services for its citizens| and in particular to maintain systems that provide a reliable and safe food and water supply becomes more and more problematic. In less developed countries| other problems also exist that will become magnified because of global warming. For example| diseases transmitted by fecal contamination| such as cholera| typhoid fever and a plethora of parasitic infections| are commonplace where human excrement is used as fertilizer (an estimated 50 % of all farming on the planet). These infections are in large part responsible for widespread poverty and illiteracy. Geo-helminths| alone| cripple enormous numbers of children and adults alike. Heavy infections with ascaris| hookworm and whipworm can permanently reduce a child's capacity for learning| and the diarrheal diseases they cause routinely keep them out of school. Illiteracy| malnutrition| and poverty are the result. Today| even in more developed countries where many of these kinds of infectious diseases have been either eradicated or are under control| food safety and security issues dominate the headlines. Over the last 5 years| in the United States alone| food recalls due to bacterial infectious diseases have resulted in billions of dollars of lost income. In traditional farming| a plethora of plant pathogens (e.g.| rice blast| wheat rust) and insect pests (e.g.| locusts) account for staggering losses of crops worldwide| further pushing the yields of most grain and vegetable crops towards lower and lower limits. Soil erosion due to floods and droughts completes the picture of climate change issues that have already significantly reduced where we can grow our food. The majority of environmental experts agree that farming as we know it will become marginalized over the next 50 years| as climate changes accelerate even more due to deforestation. This is because forests are being sacrificed for farmland. The consequence of this activity is that the carbon cycle is out of balance and will only get worse if nothing is done on a global scale. Controlled environment agriculture is one answer to reversing this situation. Greenhouse technologies are well-established and guarantee a safer| more reliable food supply that can be produced year round| and they can be located close to urban centers. By "stacking" these buildings on top of each other in an integrated well-engineered fashion| we can greatly reduce our agricultural footprint| and the vertical farm concept can then be applied to every urban center| regardless of location. 12385,2011,4,4,Theoretical Investigation of the gas-phase reactions of (CF(3))(2)CHOCH(3) with OH Radical,Kinetics and thermochemistry of the gas-phase reactions between (CF(3))(2)CHOCH(3) and OH radical are studied using the G2(MP2) and hybrid density functional model MPWB1 K method. The hydrogen abstraction reaction from the -CH(3) group is found to be the dominant reaction channel| whereas hydrogen abstraction from the -CH site become equally important at higher temperature range. The G2(MP2) calculated total rate constant value of 1.88 x 10 (13) cm(3) molecule (1) s (1) at 298 K is found to be in very good agreement with the experimental value of (2.25+/-0.04) x 10 (13) cm(3) molecule (1) s (1). The rate constant value obtained from the MPWB1K method (5.53 x 10 (13) cm(3) molecule (1) s (1)) is found to be somewhat higher than the available experimental result. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V. 3503,2011,2,4,Thermal Constraints for Range Expansion of the Invasive Green Mussel| Perna viridis| in the Southeastern United States,Cold temperatures are thought to be among the most important determining factors of geographic distribution for tropical and sub-tropical marine invertebrates. The Asian green mussel| Perna viridis| has been introduced into coastal waters of Florida where its current distribution is hypothesized to be limited by low temperatures during winter. Lethal and sub-lethal effects (heat shock protein/Hsp70 expression) of cold water and air temperatures were analyzed in two size classes of P. viridis from Florida in an effort to determine the effects of current and forecasted temperatures on the potential for range expansion. Mussels were exposed to water temperatures of 14| 10| 7 and 3 degrees C for up to 30 days| or to air temperatures of 14| 7| 0 and -10 degrees C for periods of 2 hr. Mortality was significantly increased at all water and air temperaturesr <= 14 degrees C. No differences in mortality rates were observed between small (15-45 mm) and large (75-105 mm) size classes except after exposure to 7 degrees C air| in which small mussels had higher mortality. Significant increases in Hsp70 expression were observed after a 2-hour exposure to 10 degrees C water| but Hsp70 expression was not significantly increased at any temperatures in which mortality was not also significant. The temperature threshold for survival in this population appears to be between 10 and 14 degrees C| suggesting that under current conditions P. viridis may already be at the northern edge of its potential range in the United States. If water temperatures increase with global climate change| northerly flowing currents may permit range expansion as temperatures allow. J. Exp. Zool. 315: 12-21| 2011. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss| Inc. 12703,2011,2,4,Thermal constraints on embryonic development as a proximate cause for elevational range limits in two Mediterranean lacertid lizards,Local adaptation and range restrictions in alpine environments are central topics in biogeographic research with important implications for predicting impacts of global climate change on organisms. Temperature is strongly coupled to elevation and greatly affects life history traits of oviparous reptiles in mountain environments. Thus| species may encounter barriers for expanding their ranges if they are unable to adapt to the changing thermal conditions encountered along elevational gradients. We sought to determine whether thermal requirements for embryonic development provide a plausible explanation for elevational range limits of two species of lacertid lizards that have complementary elevational ranges in a Mediterranean mountain range (Psammodromus algirus is found at elevations below 1600 m and Iberolacerta cyreni is found at elevations above 1600 m). We combined experimental incubation of eggs in the laboratory with modelled estimates of nest temperature in the field. In both species| increasing temperature accelerated development and produced earlier hatching dates. The species associated with warmer environments (P. algirus) experienced an excessive hatching delay under the lowest incubation temperature. Moreover| newborns from eggs incubated at low temperatures showed poor body condition and very slow rates of postnatal growth. In contrast| eggs of the strictly alpine species I. cyreni exhibited shorter incubation periods than P. algirus that allowed hatching before the end of the active season even under low incubation temperatures. This was countered by lower reproductive success at higher temperatures| due to lower hatching rates and higher incidence of abnormal phenotypes. Elevational range limits of both species coincided well with threshold temperatures for deleterious effects on embryonic development. We suggest that incubation temperature is a major ecophysiological factor determining the elevational range limits of these oviparous lizards with predictable consequences for mountain distributions under future warmer climates. 3156,2011,4,4,Thermal ecology on an exposed algal reef: infrared imagery a rapid tool to survey temperature at local spatial scales,We tested the feasibility of infra-red (IR) thermography as a tool to survey in situ temperatures in intertidal habitats. We employed this method to describe aspects of thermal ecology for an exposed algal reef in the tropics (O'ahu| Hawai'i). In addition| we compared temperatures of the surrounding habitat as determined by IR thermography and traditional waterproof loggers. Images of reef organisms (6 macroalgae| 9 molluscs| 1 anthozoan| and 2 echinoderms)| loggers| and landscapes were taken during two diurnal low tides. Analysis of IR thermographs revealed remarkable thermal complexity on a narrow tropical shore| as habitats ranged from 18.1 to 38.3A degrees C and surfaces of organisms that ranged from 21.1 to 33.2A degrees C. The near 20A degrees C difference between abiotic habitats and the mosaic of temperatures experienced by reef organisms across the shore are similar to findings from temperate studies using specialized longterm loggers. Further| IR thermography captured rapid temperature fluctuations that were related to tidal height and cross-correlated to wave action. Finally| we gathered evidence that tidal species were associated with particular temperature ranges and that two species possess morphological characteristics that limit thermal stress. Loggers provided similar results as thermography but lack the ability to resolve variation in fine-scale spatial and temporal patterns. Our results support the utility of IR thermography in exploring thermal ecology| and demonstrate the steps needed to calibrate data leading to establishment of baseline conditions in a changing and heterogeneous environment. 3169,2011,2,4,Thermal Genetic Adaptation in the Water Flea Daphnia and its Impact: An Evolving Metacommunity Approach,Genetic adaptation to temperature change can impact responses of populations and communities to global warming. Here we integrate previously published results on experimental evolution trials with follow-up experiments involving the water flea Daphnia as a model system. Our research shows (1) the capacity of natural populations of this species to genetically adapt to changes in temperature in a time span of months to years| (2) the context-dependence of these genetic changes| emphasizing the role of ecology and community composition on evolutionary responses to climatic change| and (3) the impact of micro-evolutionary changes on immigration success of preadapted genotypes. Our study involves (1) experimental evolution trials in the absence and presence of the community of competitors| predators| and parasites| (2) life-table and competition experiments to assess the fitness consequences of micro-evolution| and (3) competition experiments with putative immigrant genotypes. We use these observations as building blocks of an evolving metacommunity to understand biological responses to climatic change. This approach integrates both local and regional responses at both the population and community levels. Finally| we provide an outline of current gaps in knowledge and suggest fruitful avenues for future research. 3168,2011,2,4,Thermal Performance Curves| Phenotypic Plasticity| and the Time Scales of Temperature Exposure,Thermal performance curves (TPCs) describe the effects of temperature on biological rate processes. Here| we use examples from our work on common killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) to illustrate some important conceptual issues relating to TPCs in the context of using these curves to predict the responses of organisms to climate change. Phenotypic plasticity has the capacity to alter the shape and position of the TPCs for acute exposures| but these changes can be obscured when rate processes are measured only following chronic exposures. For example| the acute TPC for mitochondrial respiration in killifish is exponential in shape| but this shape changes with acclimation. If respiration rate is measured only at the acclimation temperature| the TPC is linear| concealing the underlying mechanistic complexity at an acute time scale. These issues are particularly problematic when attempting to use TPCs to predict the responses of organisms to temperature change in natural environments. Many TPCs are generated using laboratory exposures to constant temperatures| but temperature fluctuates in the natural environment| and the mechanisms influencing performance at acute and chronic time scales| and the responses of the performance traits at these time scales may be quite different. Unfortunately| our current understanding of the mechanisms underlying the responses of organisms to temperature change is incomplete| particularly with respect to integrating from processes occurring at the level of single proteins up to whole-organism functions across different time scales| which is a challenge for the development of strongly grounded mechanistic models of responses to global climate change. 12871,2011,2,4,Thermal Regions in Light of Contemporary Climate Change in Poland,Agroclimatic elaborations| including practical agricultural recommendations| are based on recent climate standards (30-year periods): 1881-1930| 1931-60| 1951-80| and 1961-90. The period 1971-2000 has just recently been included in climate studies. During the final two decades of the 20(th) century and in the beginning of the 21(st) century we have observed a clear and well documented increase in air temperature. In this article the authors compare the extent of thermal regions in Poland| which have been designated on the basis of effective temperature sums >= 10 degrees C for the period 1971-2000. It should be noted that at present this is the effective climatological standard and it was used to obtain regression equation data for 2000 and 2007. The results of this study indicate that the area of the temperate-cool region with effective temperature sums >= 10 degrees C in the range of 2|000-2|400 degrees C has been decreasing in subsequent time periods - 37%| 12%| and 3%| respectively. Meanwhile| the warm region characterized by effective temperature sums in the range 2|800-3|200 degrees C has increased its area from 3% in 2000 to 26% in 2007. It should be emphasized that the warm region has not been observed when we analyzed the 1971-2000 data. The originality of this article is outlined by the fact that it documents and characterizes contemporary climate changes| which are manifested through changes in the extent of thermal regions. In addition| this article attempts to depict a number of consequences of these changes by illustrating the possibility Of expansion of the surface area of thermophilic plants. 3202,2011,2,4,Thermodynamics of cercarial survival and metabolism in a changing climate,Cercariae are non-feeding free-living stages in the life cycles of trematodes| highly influenced by temperature. Their life span is brief| limited by the depletion of a non-renewable glycogen store. Warmer temperatures under the influence of climate change may promote the transmission of parasites and therefore understanding their thermobiology forms an important step in discerning the future dynamics of parasite populations. An empirical relationship exists between cercarial mean expected life span and the half-life of the population (t(0.5)) and therefore t(0.5) is a good indicator of glycogen utilization. In this study experimental data on the effects of temperature on cercarial survival is compiled from the scientific literature and evaluated in terms of metabolism using Q(10) and Arrhenius activation energy (E* or mu)| common measures of temperature-mediated reaction rates. Cercariae have a variable response to temperature| which does not appear to be influenced by their life-history attributes or size. There were little differences in Q(10) and E* values between most temperature ranges. In almost half the studies examined (7 of 16) cercariae demonstrated a discrete zone of thermostability over a range equivalent to typical individual mean summer temperatures. Distinct intraspecific differences in temperature responses between 3 laboratory strains of Schistosoma mansoni and 2 natural strains of Echinoparyphium recurvatum sensu stricto were apparent. The importance of these results for cercarial biology under global climate change is discussed. 11919,2011,2,4,Thermotolerance and hsp70 heat shock response in the cold-stenothermal chironomid Pseudodiamesa branickii (NE Italy),To better understand the physiological capability of cold-stenothermal organisms to survive high-temperature stress| we analyzed the thermotolerance limits and the expression level of hsp70 genes under temperature stress in the alpine midge Pseudodiamesa branickii (Diptera Chironomidae). A lethal temperature (LT(100)) of 36A degrees C and a lethal temperature 50% (LT(50)) of 32.2A degrees C were found for the cold-stenothermal larvae after short-term shocks (1 h). Additional experiments revealed that the duration of the exposure negatively influenced survival| whereas a prior exposure to a less severe high temperature generated an increase in survival. To investigate the molecular basis of this high thermotolerance| the expression of the hsp70 gene family was surveyed via semi-quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction analysis in treated larvae. The constitutive (hsc70) and inducible (hsp70) forms were both analyzed. Larvae of P. branickii showed a significant up-regulation of inducible hsp70 gene with increasing temperatures and an over-expression of both hsp70 and hsc70 by increasing the time of exposure. Different from that was shown in many cold-stenothermal Antarctic organisms| P. branickii was able to activate hsp70 genes transcription (equal to heat shock response) in response to thermal stress. Finally| the unclear relationship between hsp70 expression and survival led us to surmise that genes other than hsp70 and other processes apart from the biochemical processes might generate the high thermaltolerance of P. branickii larvae. These results and future high-throughput studies at both the transcriptome and proteome level will improve our ability to predict the future geographic distribution of this species within the context of global warming. 11846,2011,2,3,Thermotolerance and the effects of hypercapnia on the metabolic rate of the ophiuroid Ophionereis schayeri: Inferences for survivorship in a changing ocean,Global warming is causing the oceans to simultaneously warm| decrease in pH and increase in pCO(2)| stressors that will have deleterious impacts on physiological function in marine biota. To address questions on future vulnerabilities in a conspicuous component of the shallow water biota of temperate eastern Australia| the impact of projected (2100 and beyond) temperature and pH/pCO(2) change on respiration in the brittle star Ophionereis schayeri was investigated. Survivorship at elevated temperature was also investigated. Temperature and pH conditions experienced by this species in the field were determined to place experiments in the context of present and near future scenarios and to assess current tolerance levels with regard to tidal variation in temperature and pH. The acute metabolic response (M(O2)) of O. schayeri to pH/pCO(2) was measured with animals acclimated to 19 degrees C| low summer sea surface temperature (SST) and 25 degrees C (+ 1 degrees C max summer SST). Temperature had the predicted effect on oxygen uptake| with the Q(10) being 2.6 at normal pH 8.2. It was predicted that hypercapnia/low pH (7.4-7.8) would be stressful to O. schayeri and that this would be reflected by a decrease in respiration rate. Hypercapnia (pCO(2) >= 1000 mu atm) had a narcotic effect causing lethargy in O. schayeri. In the pH 7.8 treatments narcotic effects may have contributed to the decrease in oxygen uptake observed. This pH level is near the lower range of pH experienced by this species in the field and it is likely that short term metabolic depression may be a routine response strategy for O. schayeri. However| at pH 7.6 and 7.4 0. schayeri exhibited a significant increase in oxygen uptake associated with copious secretion of mucus| a stress response. During five week acclimation experiments at control (22 angstrom C) and elevated (25 degrees C) temperatures| mortalities were 1.3% and 15%| respectively. The brittle stars did not cope with higher temperatures (>= 26 degrees C). It appears that 25 degrees C approximates the thermotolerance threshold for O. schayeri indicating that this species is living near its upper limit. Local populations of this brittle star may not cope with a more permanent increase in environmental pCO(2) and temperature due to climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12254,2011,4,3,Three views of two degrees,Limiting global warming to 2 degrees C above pre-industrial global mean temperature has become a widely endorsed goal for climate policy. It has also been severely criticized. We show how the limit emerged out of a marginal remark in an early paper about climate policy and distinguish three possible views of it. The catastrophe view sees it as the threshold separating a domain of safety from a domain of catastrophe. The cost-benefit view sees it as a strategy to optimize the relation between the costs and benefits of climate policy. The focal point view sees it as a solution to a complex coordination problem. We argue that the focal point view is the most appropriate. It leads to an emphasis on implementing effective steps toward a near-zero emissions economy| without panicking in the face of a possible temporary overshooting. After several decades of practical experiences| the focal point may or may not be redefined on the basis of knowledge gathered thanks to these experiences. 12670,2011,4,4,Time delay of global warming,Thermal response of Earth's climate to atmospheric GHGs is delayed in time. The magnitude of time delay can significantly exceed several decades| while current thermal imbalance of Earth is likely to amount 0.6 K but it can increase to 5 K by 2100. The paper provides modelling analysis of dynamical behaviour of global warming and presents climatic hysteresis diagrams. Transient simulations reveal that time delay depends on Earth's thermal capacity and mass| and on conductive and convective heat transport. It is concluded that the effect of GHGs warms climate and simultaneously suspends the glaciation/interglaciation cycles that periodically occurred in the past. 12485,2011,4,4,Toward 3D spatial dynamic field simulation within GIS using kinetic Voronoi diagram and Delaunay tetrahedralization,Geographic information systems (GISs) are widely used for representation| management| and analysis of spatial data in many disciplines. In particular| geoscientists increasingly use these tools for data integration and management purposes in many environmental applications| ranging from water resources management to the study of global warming. Beyond these capabilities| geoscientists need to model and simulate three-dimensional (3D) dynamic fields and readily integrate those results with other relevant spatial information in order to have a better understanding of the environmental problems. However| GISs are very limited for the modeling and simulation of spatial fields| which are mostly 3D and dynamic. These limitations are mainly related to the existing GIS spatial data structures that are static and limited to 2D space. In order to overcome these limitations| we develop and implement a new kinetic 3D spatial data structure based on Delaunay tetrahedralization and a 3D Voronoi diagram to support a 3D dynamic field simulation within GISs. In this article| we describe in detail the different steps from discretization of a 3D continuous field to its numerical integration| based on an event-driven method. For validation of the proposed spatial data structure itself and its potential for the simulation of a dynamic field| two case studies are presented in the article. According to our observations| during the simulation process| the data structure is maintained and the 3D spatial information is managed adequately. Furthermore| the results obtained from both experiments are very satisfactory and are comparable with the results obtained from other existing methods for the simulation of the same dynamic field. To conclude| we discuss the current challenges related to the development of the 3D kinetic data structure itself and its adaptation to 3D dynamic field simulation and suggest some solutions for its improvement. 3332,2011,2,3,Toward a Quantitative Estimate of Future Heat Wave Mortality under Global Climate Change,BACKGROUND: Climate change is anticipated to affect human health by changing the distribution of known risk factors. Heat waves have had debilitating effects on human mortality| and global climate models predict an increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves. The extent to which climate change will harm human health through changes in the distribution of heat waves and the sources of uncertainty in estimating these effects have not been studied extensively. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the future excess mortality attributable to heat waves under global climate change for a major U.S. city. METHODS: We used a database comprising daily data from 1987 through 2005 on mortality from all nonaccidental causes| ambient levels of particulate matter and ozone| temperature| and dew point temperature for the city of Chicago| Illinois. We estimated the associations between heat waves and mortality in Chicago using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Under three different climate change scenarios for 2081-2100 and in the absence of adaptation| the city of Chicago could experience between 166 and 2|217 excess deaths per year attributable to heat waves| based on estimates from seven global climate models. We noted considerable variability in the projections of annual heat wave mortality; the largest source of variation was the choice of climate model. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of future heat waves on human health will likely be profound| and significant gains can be expected by lowering future carbon dioxide emissions. 12505,2011,3,3,Toward carbon dioxide capture using nanoporous materials,The development of more efficient processes for CO(2) capture from the flue streams of power plants is considered a key to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions implicated in global warming. Indeed| several U.S. and international climate change initiatives have identified the urgent need for improved materials and methods for CO(2) capture. Conventional CO(2) capture processes employed in power plants world-wide are typically postcombustion "wet scrubbing" methods involving the absorption of CO(2) by amine-containing solvents such as methanolamine (MEA). These present several disadvantages| including the considerable heat required in regeneration of the solvent and the necessary use of inhibitors for corrosion control| which lead to reduced efficiencies and increased costs for electricity production. This perspective article seeks to highlight the most recent advances in new materials for CO(2) capture from power plant flue streams| with particular emphasis on the rapidly expanding field of metal organic frameworks. Ultimately| the development of new classes of efficient| cost-effective| and industrially viable capture materials for application in carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems offers an immense opportunity to reduce atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases on a national and international scale. 12253,2011,2,4,Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: an example for plant species in Europe,Climate change is one of the main factors that will affect biodiversity in the future and may even cause species extinctions. We suggest a methodology to derive a general relationship between biodiversity change and global warming. In conjunction with other pressure relationships| our relationship can help to assess the combined effect of different pressures to overall biodiversity change and indicate areas that are most at risk. We use a combination of an integrated environmental model ( IMAGE) and climate envelope models for European plant species for several climate change scenarios to estimate changes in mean stable area of species and species turnover. We show that if global temperature increases| then both species turnover will increase| and mean stable area of species will decrease in all biomes. The most dramatic changes will occur in Northern Europe| where more than 35% of the species composition in 2100 will be new for that region| and in Southern Europe| where up to 25% of the species now present will have disappeared under the climatic circumstances forecasted for 2100. In Mediterranean scrubland and natural grassland/steppe systems| arctic and tundra systems species turnover is high| indicating major changes in species composition in these ecosystems. The mean stable area of species decreases mostly in Mediterranean scrubland| grassland/steppe systems and warm mixed forests. 12844,2011,4,2,Towards space based verification of CO2 emissions from strong localized sources: fossil fuel power plant emissions as seen by a CarbonSat constellation,Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important man-made greenhouse gas (GHG) that cause global warming. With electricity generation through fossil-fuel power plants now being the economic sector with the largest source of CO2| power plant emissions monitoring has become more important than ever in the fight against global warming. In a previous study done by Bovensmann et al. (2010)| random and systematic errors of power plant CO2 emissions have been quantified using a single overpass from a proposed CarbonSat instrument. In this study| we quantify errors of power plant annual emission estimates from a hypothetical CarbonSat and constellations of several CarbonSats while taking into account that power plant CO2 emissions are time-dependent. Our focus is on estimating systematic errors arising from the sparse temporal sampling as well as random errors that are primarily dependent on wind speeds. We used hourly emissions data from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) combined with assimilated and re-analyzed meteorological fields from the National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP). CarbonSat orbits were simulated as a sun-synchronous low-earth orbiting satellite (LEO) with an 828-km orbit height| local time ascending node (LTAN) of 13:30 (01:30 p.m. LT) and achieves global coverage after 5 days. We show| that despite the variability of the power plant emissions and the limited satellite overpasses| one CarbonSat has the potential to verify reported US annual CO2 emissions from large power plants (>= 5 MtCO(2) yr(-1)) with a systematic error of less than similar to 4.9% and a random error of less than similar to 6.7% for 50% of all the power plants. For 90% of all the power plants| the systematic error was less than similar to 12.4% and the random error was less than similar to 13 %. We additionally investigated two different satellite configurations using a combination of 5 CarbonSats. One achieves global coverage everyday but only samples the targets at fixed local times. The other configuration samples the targets five times at two-hour intervals approximately every 6th day but only achieves global coverage after 5 days. From the statistical analyses| we found| as expected| that the random errors improve by approximately a factor of two if 5 satellites are used. On the other hand| more satellites do not result in a large reduction of the systematic error. The systematic error is somewhat smaller for the CarbonSat constellation configuration achieving global coverage everyday. Therefore| we recommend the CarbonSat constellation configuration that achieves daily global coverage. 12182,2011,3,3,TOXICITY OF WATER-SOLUBLE FRACTIONS OF BIODIESEL FUELS DERIVED FROM CASTOR OIL| PALM OIL| AND WASTE COOKING OIL,Concerns over the sustained availability of fossil fuels and their impact on global warming and pollution have led to the search for fuels from renewable sources to address worldwide rising energy demands. Biodiesel is emerging as one of the possible solutions for the transport sector. It shows comparable engine performance to that of conventional diesel fuel| while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However| the toxicity of products and effluents from the biodiesel industry has not yet been sufficiently investigated. Brazil has a very high potential as a biodiesel producer| in view of its climatic conditions and vast areas for cropland| with consequent environmental risks because of possible accidental biodiesel spillages into water bodies and runoff to coastal areas. This research determined the toxicity to two marine organisms of the water-soluble fractions (WSF) of three different biodiesel fuels obtained by methanol transesterification of castor oil (CO)| palm oil (PO)| and waste cooking oil (WCO). Microalgae and sea urchins were used as the test organisms| respectively| for culture-growth-inhibition and early-life-stage-toxicity tests. The toxicity levels of the analyzed biodiesel WSF showed the highest toxicity for the CO| followed by WCO and the PO. Methanol was the most prominent contaminant; concentrations increased over time in WSF samples stored up to 120 d. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 201 l;30:893-897. (C) 2011 SETAC 11627,2011,3,4,TRACI 2.0: the tool for the reduction and assessment of chemical and other environmental impacts 2.0,TRACI 2.0| the Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts 2.0| has been expanded and developed for sustainability metrics| life cycle impact assessment| industrial ecology| and process design impact assessment for developing increasingly sustainable products| processes| facilities| companies| and communities. TRACI 2.0 allows the quantification of stressors that have potential effects| including ozone depletion| global warming| acidification| eutrophication| tropospheric ozone (smog) formation| human health criteria-related effects| human health cancer| human health noncancer| ecotoxicity| and fossil fuel depletion effects. Research is going on to quantify the use of land and water in a future version of TRACI. The original version of TRACI released in August 2002 (Bare et al. J Ind Ecol 6: 49-78| 2003) has been used in many prestigious applications including: the US Green Building Council's LEED Certification (US Green Building Council| Welcome to US Green Building Council| 2008)| the National Institute of Standards and Technology's BEES (Building for Environment and Economic Sustainability) (Lippiatt| BEES 4.0: building for environmental and economic sustainability technical manual and user guide| 2007) which is used by US EPA for Environmentally Preferable Purchasing (US Environmental Protection Agency| Environmentally Preferable Purchasing (EPP)| 2008d)| the US Marine Corps' EKAT (Environmental Knowledge and Assessment Tool) for military and non-military uses (US Marine Corps| Environmental knowledge and assessment tool (EKAT): first time user's guide| 2007)| and within numerous college curriculums in engineering and design departments. 3369,2011,2,4,Trans-Pacific and trans-Arctic pathways of the intertidal macroalga Fucus distichus L. reveal multiple glacial refugia and colonizations from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic,Aim We examined the phylogeography of the cold-temperate macroalgal species Fucus distichus L.| a key foundation species in rocky intertidal shores and the only Fucus species to occur naturally in both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. Location North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans (42 degrees to 77 degrees N). Methods We genotyped individuals from 23 populations for a mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) intergenic spacer (IGS) (n = 608) and the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) region (n = 276)| as well as for six nuclear microsatellite loci (n = 592). Phylogeographic structure and connectivity were assessed using population genetic and phylogenetic network analyses. Results IGS mtDNA haplotype diversity was highest in the North Pacific| and divergence between Pacific haplotypes was much older than that of the single cluster of Atlantic haplotypes. Two ancestral Pacific IGS/COI clusters led to a widespread Atlantic cluster. High mtDNA and microsatellite diversities were observed in Prince William Sound| Alaska| 11 years after severe disturbance by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Main conclusions At least two colonizations occurred from the older North Pacific populations to the North Atlantic between the opening of the Bering Strait and the onset of the Last Glacial Maximum. One colonization event was from the Japanese Archipelago/eastern Aleutians| and a second was from the Alaskan mainland around the Gulf of Alaska. Japanese populations probably arose from a single recolonization event from the eastern Aleutian Islands before the North Pacific-North Atlantic colonization. In the North Atlantic| the Last Glacial Maximum forced the species into at least two known glacial refugia: the Nova Scotia/Newfoundland (Canada) region and And circle divide ya (northern Norway). The presence of two private haplotypes in the central Atlantic suggests the possibility of colonization from other refugia that are now too warm to support F. distichus. With the continuing decline in Arctic ice cover as a result of global climate change| renewed contact between North Pacific and North Atlantic populations of Fucus species is expected. 12722,2011,4,3,Transcending the Adaptation/Mitigation Climate Change Science Policy Debate: Unmasking Assumptions about Adaptation and Resilience,The two principal policy approaches to global climate change include mitigation and adaption. In recent years| the interest in adaptation and "resilience'' has increased significantly in part because anthropogenic climate change appears unavoidable and mitigation agreements are difficult to achieve. This article takes a critical look at the emerging discourse over climate change adaptation and resilience. By drawing upon critiques of environmental resource management and adaptive comanagement| this paper argues that taking the concept of adaptation for granted as an appropriate bottom-up strategy for coping with anthropogenic climate change not only ignores the political and economic contexts in which this environmental strategy developed| but might also unintentionally subvert the vulnerable communities it intends to benefit. Using an ethnographic case study of the 2004 Boscastle Harbour flood in North Cornwall| England| this paper explores the paradoxical way in which adaptation and resilience work within the apparatus of the neoliberal state| which aims to shift responsibility for social and environmental problems to the individual. By better understanding the political and economic processes embedded in the concepts of adaptation and resilience| researchers will be more effective at finding equitable solutions to human ecological problems. Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change is vital in order to reduce the impacts of climate change that are happening now and increase resilience to future impacts (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). 11568,2011,2,4,Transcriptomic resilience to global warming in the seagrass Zostera marina| a marine foundation species,Large-scale transcription profiling via direct cDNA sequencing provides important insights as to how foundation species cope with increasing climatic extremes predicted under global warming. Species distributed along a thermal cline| such as the ecologically important seagrass Zostera marina| provide an opportunity to assess temperature effects on gene expression as a function of their long-term adaptation to heat stress. We exposed a southern and northern European population of Zostera marina from contrasting thermal environments to a realistic heat wave in a common-stress garden. In a fully crossed experiment| eight cDNA libraries| each comprising similar to 125 000 reads| were obtained during and after a simulated heat wave| along with nonstressed control treatments. Although gene-expression patterns during stress were similar in both populations and were dominated by classical heat-shock proteins| transcription profiles diverged after the heat wave. Gene-expression patterns in southern genotypes returned to control values immediately| but genotypes from the northern site failed to recover and revealed the induction of genes involved in protein degradation| indicating failed metabolic compensation to high sea-surface temperature. We conclude that the return of gene-expression patterns during recovery provides critical information on thermal adaptation in aquatic habitats under climatic stress. As a unifying concept for ecological genomics| we propose transcriptomic resilience| analogous to ecological resilience| as an important measure to predict the tolerance of individuals and hence the fate of local populations in the face of global warming. 12752,2011,4,3,Transient regional climate change: Analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution| century-scale ensemble experiment over the continental United States,Integrating the potential for climate change impacts on policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of subregional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution| century-scale ensemble simulation of climate in the United States| forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental United States. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity| with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern United States but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the south central and southeastern United States. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude| which is greatest over the central United States and smallest over the western United States. In addition to stronger warming| the central United States also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature| precipitation| and moisture and energy fluxes| along with changes in atmospheric circulation toward increased anticylonic anomalies in the midtroposphere and a poleward shift in the midlatitude jet aloft. However| as a fraction of the baseline variability| the transient warming over the central United States is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern United States| delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central United States. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust subregional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast| where there is greater variability in the baseline climate dynamics there can be greater variability in the response to elevated greenhouse forcing| decreasing the robustness of the transient warming signal. 3377,2011,2,4,Translocation as a Novel Approach to Study Effects of a New Breeding Habitat on Reproductive Output in Wild Birds,Environmental conditions under which species reproduce have major consequences on breeding success and subsequent fitness. Therefore breeding habitat choice is ultimately important. Studies rarely address the potential fitness pay-offs of alternative natural breeding habitats by experimental translocation. Here we present a new tool to study fitness consequences of free living birds in different habitats. We translocated a migratory passerine| the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca)| to a novel site| where pairs were subjected to a short stay (2-4 days) in a nest box-equipped aviary before being released. We show that it is technically possible to retain birds in the new area for breeding| allowing the study of reproductive consequences of dispersal under natural conditions. The translocation resulted in an extension of the interval between arrival and egg laying of four days| highlighting the importance of having an adequate control group. Clutch size and nestling parameters did not differ significantly between translocated and unmanipulated females| which suggests that the procedure did not affect birds in their reproductive performance later on. This method could be applied broadly in evolutionary and ecological research| e. g.| to study the potential fitness benefits and costs for dispersing to more northern latitudes as a way of adapting to climate change. 12580,2011,2,4,Transplantation of organic surface horizons of boreal soils into warmer regions alters microbiology but not the temperature sensitivity of decomposition,Changes in soil carbon| the largest terrestrial carbon pool| are critical for the global carbon cycle| atmospheric CO(2) levels and climate. Climate warming is predicted to be most pronounced in the northern regions and therefore the large soil carbon pool residing in boreal forests will be subject to larger global warming impact than soil carbon pools in the temperate or the tropical forest. A major uncertainty in current estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance is related to decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM). We hypothesized that when soils are exposed to warmer climate the structure of the ground vegetation will change much more rapidly than the dominant tree species. This change will alter the quality and amount of litter input to the soil and induce changes in microbial communities| thus possibly altering the temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition. We transferred organic surface soil sections from the northern borders of the boreal forest zone to corresponding forest sites in the southern borders of the boreal forest zone and studied the effects of warmer climate after an adaptation period of 2 years. The results showed that initially ground vegetation and soil microbial community structure and community functions were different in northern and southern forest sites and that 2 years of exposure to warmer climate was long enough to cause changes in these ecological indicators. The rate of SOM decomposition was approximately equally sensitive to temperature irrespective of changes in vegetation or microbial communities in the studied forest sites. However| as temperature sensitivity of the decomposition increases with decreasing temperature regime| the proportional increase in the decomposition rate in northern latitudes could lead to significant carbon losses from the soils. 12836,2011,2,4,Tree and Shrub Expansion Over the Past 34 Years at the Tree-Line Near Abisko| Sweden,Shrubs and trees are expected to expand in the sub-Arctic due to global warming. Our study was conducted in Abisko| sub-arctic Sweden. We recorded the change in coverage of shrub and tree species over a 32- to 34-year period| in three 50 x 50 m plots; in the alpine-tree-line ecotone. The cover of shrubs and trees (<3.5 cm diameter at breast height) were estimated during 2009-2010 and compared with historical documentation from 1976 to 1977. Similarly| all tree stems (>= 3.5 cm) were noted and positions determined. There has been a substantial increase of cover of shrubs and trees| particularly dwarf birch (Betula nana)| and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii)| and an establishment of aspen (Populus tremula). The other species willows (Salix spp.)| juniper (Juniperus communis)| and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) revealed inconsistent changes among the plots. Although this study was unable to identify the causes for the change in shrubs and small trees| they are consistent with anticipated changes due to climate change and reduced herbivory. 12380,2011,5,4,Tree ring evidence of a 20th century precipitation surge in the monsoon shadow zone of the western Himalaya| India,The present study is the first attempt to develop an annual (August-July) precipitation series back to AD 1330 using a tree ring data network of Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara (Roxb.) G. Don) from the Lahaul-Spiti region in the western Himalaya| India. The rainfall reconstruction reveals high magnitude multidecadal droughts during the 14th and 15th centuries and thenceforth a gradual increase in precipitation. Increasingly wet conditions during the 20th century are consistent with other long-term precipitation reconstructions from high Asia and reflect a large-scale intensification of the hydrological cycle| coincident with what is anticipated due to global warming. Significant relationships between reconstructed precipitation and precipitation records from central southwest Asia| east of the Caspian Sea| ENSO (NINO4-SST) variability and summer monsoon rainfall over central northeast India underscore the utility of our data in synoptic climatology. 12525,2011,2,4,Tree-ring reconstruction of groundwater levels in Alberta| Canada: Long term hydroclimatic variability,Groundwater could be an increasingly important water supply in the Canadian interior with global warming and declining summer runoff; however| not enough is known about the behavior of groundwater under climatic variability. Groundwater levels at two wells in southern and central Alberta are analyzed in order to document long-term variability of groundwater levels and their sensitivity to climatic events. The instrumental well records span more than 40 years. Strong correlations (r > 0.7| p < 0.01) between mean annual groundwater levels and tree-ring chronologies suggested the use of regression models to reconstruct historical water levels for more than 300 years. From the estimated groundwater levels several periods with five or more consecutive years of low levels were identified (i.e. periods centered on 1698| 1720| 1855| and 1863 at well 117; 1887 and 1923 at well 159). The application of a regime shift method revealed periods with more than 30 years with below-average water levels. Spectral analyses| wavelet and multitaper methods| suggest dominant oscillation modes in groundwater levels in the 2-8 and 8-16 year bands. (C) 2010 Istituto Italian di Dendrocronologia. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 11652,2011,2,4,Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation over Utah| USA,The main objective of this study was to analyse the trends in 20 annual extreme indices of temperature and precipitation for Utah| USA. The analyses were conducted for 28 meteorological stations| during the period from 1930 to 2006| characterized by a long-term and high-quality dataset. The software used to process the data was the RClimdex 1.0. The analyses of extreme temperature indices have identified an increase in air temperature in Utah during the last century. Meanwhile| the analyses of precipitation indices showed a large variation throughout the studied area and time period| and| in general| with few statistically significant trends. Thus| it was not possible to conclude that significant changes in precipitation have occurred in this region over the last century. Copyright (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society 12785,2011,2,4,Trends in Rainfall Exceedances in the Observed Record in Selected Areas of the United States,Semantic difference s have led to a gap in the understanding of the impacts of climate change on precipitation frequency estimates. There is popular perception that heavy rainfalls have become more frequent| and that this trend will increase with global warming. Most of the literature examines this question from the point of view of climatology using definitions of "heavy|'' "very heavy|'' or "extreme'' rainfall| which are different from those commonly used by civil engineers. This article identifies the differences in meaning used by the climate and civil engineering communities and examines trends in the observed record in the frequency of exceedances ( not trends in magnitudes). Using concepts recognized as the basis for design of the Nation's civil infrastructure| we look at trends in the number of exceedances of thresholds for a variety of precipitation frequencies and event durations used by civil engineers. We found that the estimated trends in exceedances at one-day and multiday durations were statistically significant and increasing for the Ohio River Basin and surrounding states but the reverse was true for the Semiarid Southwest (i.e.| not significant and decreasing trends). In addition| we found the magnitude of the trends was small for all but the more frequent events and also small with respect to the uncertainty associated with the precipitation frequency estimates themselves. 3337,2011,4,4,Trends in research on global climate change: A Science Citation Index Expanded-based analysis,This study was conceived to evaluate the global scientific output of climate change research over the past 18 years and to assess the characteristics of the research patterns| tendencies| and methods in the papers. Data were based on the online version of Science Citation Index Expanded from 1992 to 2009. Articles referring to climate change were assessed by distribution of source countries| source institutes| paper titles| author keywords| KeyWords Plus| abstracts| and the most cited articles in these years. By synthetic analysis of the four kinds of keywords| it was concluded that the items "temperature"| "environment"| "precipitation"| "greenhouse gas"| "risk"| and "biodiversity" will be the foci of climate change research in the 21st century| while "model"| "monitoring"| and "remote sensing" will continue to be the leading research methods. A novel method| "phylogeography"| may have a strong application potential in the near future. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12297,2011,2,4,Trends in Temperature Extremes in Association with Weather-Intraseasonal Fluctuations in Eastern China,Trends in the frequencies of four temperature extremes (the occurrence of warm clays| cold clays| warm nights and cold nights) with respect to a modulated annual cycle (MAC)| and those associated exclusively with weather-intraseasonal fluctuations (WIF) in eastern China were investigated based on an updated homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset for 1960-2008. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method was used to isolate the WIF| MAC| and longer-term components from the temperature series. The annual| winter and summer occurrences of warm (cold) nights were found to have increased (decreased) significantly almost everywhere| while those of warm (cold) days have increased (decreased) in northern China (north of 40 degrees N). However| the four temperature extremes associated exclusively with WIF for winter have decreased almost everywhere| while those for summer have decreased in the north but increased in the south. These characteristics agree with changes in the amplitude of WIF. in particular| winter WIF of maximum temperature tended to weaken almost everywhere| especially in eastern coastal areas (by 10%-20%); summer WIF tended to intensify in southern China by 10%-20%. It is notable that in northern China| the occurrence of warm clays has increased| even where that associated with WIF has decreased significantly. This suggests that the recent increasing frequency of warm extremes is due to a considerable rise in the mean temperature level| which surpasses the effect of the weakening weather fluctuations in northern China. 11629,2011,2,4,Trends in the polar sea ice coverage under climate change scenario,The development in the satellite microwave technology during the past three decades has offered an opportunity to the scientific community to access the sea ice data over the polar regions| which was otherwise inaccessible for continuous monitoring by any other means. The present study focuses on the trends in the Sea Ice Extent (SIE) over different sectors of the Arctic and the Antarctic regions and the interannual variability in their extremes. In general| the data over the period (1979-2007) reveal marked interannual variability in the sea ice cover with an increasing and the decreasing trend over the Antarctic and the Arctic region respectively. Over the southern hemisphere| only the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas sector shows an exceptional decreasing trend. However| in the northern hemisphere| all the sectors show a decreasing trend| with the Kara and Barents Seas sector being the most prominent one. Although| the decreasing trend of the SIE over the Arctic could be attributed to the global warming| an intriguing question still remains as to why the other polar region shows a different behaviour. 3252,2011,3,3,Trends of distributed generation development in Lithuania,The closure of lgnalina Nuclear Power Plant| impact of recent global recession of the economy| as well as changes and problems posed by the global climate change require significant alterations in the Lithuanian energy sector development. This paper describes the current status and specific features of the Lithuanian power system| and in particular discusses the role of the distributed generators. Country's energy policy during last two decades was focused on substantial modernisation of the energy systems| their reorganisation and creation of appropriate institutional structure and necessary legal basis. The most important factors stimulating development of distributed generation in Lithuania are the following: international obligations to increase contribution of power plants using renewable energy sources into electricity production balance; development of small (with capacity less than 50 MW) cogeneration power plants; implementation of energy policy directed to promotion of renewable energy sources and cogeneration. Analysis of the legal and economic environment| as well as principles of regulation of distributed generation and barriers to its development is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 3390,2011,2,4,Trends of groundwater data from the Korean National Groundwater Monitoring Stations: indication of any change?,Widespread climate change can impact on groundwater conditions. We evaluated the groundwater data for 1996-2008 obtained from the National Groundwater Monitoring Stations (NGMS)| in the context of the global warming effect. Indications of air temperature and sea level rises were evident in the period. The groundwater levels were generally decreasing and most of this decrease was attributed to increased pumping nationwide| but no indication for any effect of sea level rise on groundwater level in coastal aquifers was found. The electrical conductivity (EC) values of groundwaters were very high in metropolitan and industrial areas| which were indicative of anthropogenic groundwater contamination and progressive groundwater quality deterioration. A systematic EC rise in coastal groundwaters| as a possible result of the sea level rise| was not observed. The groundwater temperature variation was the most striking. The majority of the monitored shallow and deep groundwaters exhibited increasing trends at mean rates of 0.04-0.09 A degrees C/yr. The widespread and prevailing increase in groundwater temperature nationwide| with increasing air temperature| is strongly indicative of the effect of global warming. The increasing trend became more distinctive every year. However| these significant conclusions require further groundwater monitoring and re-evaluation. 11750,2011,4,4,Tritium concentrations in the atmospheric environment at Rokkasho| Japan before the final testing of the spent nuclear fuel reprocessing plant,This study aimed at obtaining background tritium concentrations in precipitation and air at Rokkasho where the first commercial spent nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Japan has been under construction. Tritium concentration in monthly precipitation during fiscal years 2001-2005 had a seasonal variation pattern which was high in spring and low in summer. The tritium concentration was higher than that observed at Chiba City as a whole. The seasonal peak concentration at Rokkasho was generally higher than that at Chiba City| while the baseline concentrations of both were similar. The reason for the difference may be the effect of air mass from the Asian continent which is considered to have high tritium concentration. Atmospheric tritium was operationally separated into HTO| HT and hydrocarbon (CH(3)T) fractions| and the samples collected every 3 d-14 d during fiscal year 2005 were analyzed for these fractions. The HTO concentration as radioactivity in water correlated well with that in the precipitation samples. The HT concentration was the highest among the chemical forms analyzed| followed by the HTO and CH(3)T concentrations. The HT and CH(3)T concentrations did not have clear seasonal variation patterns. The HT concentration followed the decline previously reported by Mason and Ostlund with an apparent half-life of 4.8 y. The apparent and environmental half-lives of CH(3)T were estimated as 9.2 y and 36.5 y| respectively| by combining the present data with literature data. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used the atmospheric lifetime of 12 y for CH(4) to estimate global warming in its 2007 report. The longer environmental half-life of CH(3)T suggested its supply from other sources than past nuclear weapon testing in the atmosphere. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11595,2011,2,4,Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario,Research efforts focused on assessing the potential for changes in tropical cyclone activity in the greenhouse-warmed climate have progressed since the IPCC assessment in 1996. Vulnerability to tropical cyclones becoming more pronounced due to the fastest population growth in tropical coastal regions makes it practically important to explore possible changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming. This paper investigates the tropical cyclone activity over whole globe and also individually over six different ocean basins. The parameters like storm frequency| storm duration| maximum intensity attained and location of formation of storm have been examined over the past 30-year period from 1977 to 2006. Of all| the north Atlantic Ocean shows a significant increasing trend in storm frequency and storm days| especially for intense cyclones. Lifetime of intense tropical cyclones over south Indian Ocean has been increased. The intense cyclonic activity over north Atlantic| south-west Pacific| north and south Indian Ocean has been increased in recent 15 years as compared to previous 15 years| whereas in the east and west-north Pacific it is decreased| instead weak cyclone activity has been increased there. Examination of maximum intensity shows that cyclones are becoming more and more intense over the south Indian Ocean with the highest rate. The study of the change in the cyclogenesis events in the recent 15 years shows more increase in the north Atlantic. The Arabian Sea experiences increase in the cyclogenesis in general| whereas Bay of Bengal witnesses decrease in these events. Shrinking of cyclogenesis region occurs in the east-north Pacific and south-west Pacific| whereas expansion occurs in west-north Pacific. The change in cyclogenesis events and their spatial distribution in association with the meteorological parameters like sea surface temperature (SST)| vertical wind shear has been studied for Indian Ocean. The increase in SST and decrease in wind shear correspond to increase in the cyclogenesis events and vice versa for north Indian Ocean; however| for south Indian Ocean| it is not one to one. 11673,2011,4,4,Tropical cyclones| climate change| and scientific uncertainty: what do we know| what does it mean| and what should be done?,The question of whether and to what extent global warming may be changing tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of great interest to decision makers. The presence of a possible climate change signal in TC activity is difficult to detect because interannual variability necessitates analysis over longer time periods than available data allow. Projections of future TC activity are hindered by computational limitations and uncertainties about changes in regional climate| large scale patterns| and TC response. This review discusses the state of the field in terms of theory| modeling studies and data. While Atlantic TCs have recently become more intense| evidence for changes in other basins is not persuasive| and changes in the Atlantic cannot be clearly attributed to either natural variability or climate change. However| whatever the actual role of climatic change| these concerns have opened a "policy window" that| if used appropriately| could lead to improved protection against TCs. 3281,2011,5,4,Tropical cyclones| global climate change and the role of Quaternary studies,The number and types of late Quaternary records of tropical cyclones (TCs) and temperate storms have been increasing globally over the past 10 years. There are now numerous such records for the Atlantic Ocean (USA) and Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea| South Pacific Ocean| and a fewer number from the northwest Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The most obvious characteristic of these records is that many reveal extended alternating periods of greater and lesser TC activity over the past 6000 years. The length of these phases of relative inactivity and greater activity depends on the chronological resolution of the record| with the coarser-resolution ones displaying multi-century to millennial-scale episodes and the high-resolution records displaying decadal to centennial-scale oscillations. In several instances the likely causes of these alternating periods of TC behaviour have been attributed to different phases of climate when El Ninos and La Ninas dominated or to longer-term variations in sea surface temperatures and possibly solar forcing. The picture emerging from these records is that TC behaviour is not entirely stochastic over the long term and that any simulations of long-term TC behaviour need to account for these climatic influences. Incorporation of these observations| and the many more needed| is important for understanding the future behaviour of TCs. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons| Ltd. 11691,2011,2,4,Tropical gradient influences on Caribbean rainfall,Interbasin and intrabasin gradients play an important role as a part of a regional system of Caribbean climate drivers| which include the Atlantic warm pool (AWP) and the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ). When the Caribbean is conditioned to be wet between May and November| near-surface geopotentials in the Caribbean are lower than in the nearby eastern tropical Pacific and east tropical Atlantic. As a result| there is vertical ascent in the Caribbean through to the middle troposphere which connects to zonal circulations with both the eastern tropical Pacific and the eastern tropical Atlantic. The Caribbean Sea is also warm| and there is a moderate easterly flow regime| indicating a weakening of the trade winds. Deviations from this state caused by changes in one or both sides of the Pacific-Caribbean and Caribbean-Atlantic circulations (and diagnosed by changes in their geopotential gradients) reasonably track the transition of the Caribbean from wet to dry and vice versa on intraseasonal and interannual time scales. The study also uses changes to the gradients to offer insight into why the Caribbean region is projected to be drier during its traditional rainy season in the face of warmer surface temperatures under global warming. The Caribbean seemingly enters into a "July" mode| which persists for the duration of the boreal summer. The mode is characterized by higher (lower) geopotentials in the Caribbean (Pacific and Atlantic)| a stronger CLLJ| and anomalous descent in the Caribbean in spite of the warmer surface temperatures. 3423,2011,5,4,Tropical warming in the Timor Sea led deglacial Antarctic warming and atmospheric CO(2) rise by more than 500 yr,On the basis of the radiocarbon ((14)C) plateau-tuning method| a new age model for Timor Sea Core MD01-2378 was established. It revealed a precise centennial-scale phasing of climate events in the ocean| cryo-| and atmosphere during the last deglacial and provides important new insights into causal linkages controlling events of global climate change. At Site MD01-2378| reservoir ages of surface waters dropped from 1600 yr prior to 20 cal ka to 250-500 yr after 18.8 cal ka. This evidence is crucial for generating a high-resolution age model for deglacial events in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Sea-surface temperatures (SST) started to change near 18.8 cal ka| that is similar to 500 yr after the start of| presumably northern hemispheric| deglacial melt and sea level rise as shown by the benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope ratio (delta(18)O). However| the SST rise occurred 500-1000 yr prior to the onset of deglacial Antarctic warming and the first major rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide at about 18 ka. The increase in SST may partly reflect reduced seasonal upwelling of cold subsurface waters along the eastern margin of the Indian Ocean| which is reflected by a doubling of the thermal gradient between the sea surface and the thermocline| a halving of chlorin productivity from 19 to 18.5 cal ka| and in particular| by the strong decrease in surface water reservoir ages. Two significant increases in deglacial Timor Sea surface salinities from 19 to 18.5 and 15.5 to 14.5 cal ka| may partly reflect the deglacial increase in the distance of local river mouths| partly an inter-hemispheric millennial-scale see-saw in tropical monsoon intensity| possibly linked to a deglacial increase in the dominance of Pacific El Nino regimes over Heinrich stadial 1. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 11889,2011,2,3,Typhoon Track Changes Associated with Global Warming,Increasing tropical cyclone (TC) influence in the subtropical East Asia and decreasing TC activity in the South China Sea over the past few decades have been researched in previous studies. The singular value decomposition (SVD) of observational data and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change simulations in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows that the observed TC track changes are linked to the leading SVD mode of global sea surface temperature (SST) warming and the associated changes in large-scale steering flows. The selected five IPCC models can generally simulate the leading mode in their ensemble control run and prediction| suggesting the possible persistence of the reported track changes by 2040. 11735,2011,3,4,UK scenario of islanded operation of active distribution networks with renewable distributed generators,This paper reports on the current UK scenario of islanded operation of active distribution networks with renewable distributed generators (RDGs). Different surveys indicate that the present scenario does not economically justify islanding operation of active distribution networks with RDGs. With rising DG penetration| much benefit would be lost if the DGs are not allowed to island only due to conventional operational requirement of utilities. Technical studies clearly indicate the need to review parts of the Electricity Safety| Quality and Continuity Regulations (ESQCR) for successful islanded operations. Commercial viability of islanding operation must be assessed in relation to enhancement of power quality| system reliability and supply of potential ancillary services through network support. Demonstration projects under Registered Power Zone and Technical Architecture Projects should be initiated to investigate the utility of DG islanding. However these efforts should be compounded with a realistic judgement of the associated technical and economic issues for the development of future power networks beyond 2010. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 12280,2011,2,3,Uncertainties Associated with Quantifying Climate Change Impacts on Human Health: A Case Study for Diarrhea,BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition| diarrhea| and malaria are projected to increase. OBJECTIVES: The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. METHODS: We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. RESULTS: The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4 degrees C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8-11% (with SDs of 3-5%) by 2010-2039 and 22-29% (SDs of 9-12%) by 2070-2099. CONCLUSIONS: Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless| our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate-health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health. 3468,2011,2,3,Uncertainty in climate change projections of discharge for the Mekong River Basin,The Mekong River Basin is a key regional resource in Southeast Asia for sectors that include agriculture| fisheries and electricity production. Here we explore the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater resources within the river basin. We quantify uncertainty in these projections associated with GCM structure and climate sensitivity| as well as from hydrological model parameter specification. This is achieved by running pattern-scaled GCM scenarios through a semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP) of the basin. Pattern-scaling allows investigation of specific thresholds of global climate change including the postulated 2 degrees C threshold of "dangerous" climate change. Impacts of a 2 degrees C rise in global mean temperature are investigated using seven different GCMs| providing an implicit analysis of uncertainty associated with GCM structure. Analysis of progressive changes in global mean temperature from 0.5 to 6 degrees C above the 1961-1990 baseline (using the HadCM3 GCM) reveals a relatively small but non-linear response of annual river discharge to increasing global mean temperature| ranging from a 5.4% decrease to 4.5% increase. Changes in mean monthly river discharge are greater (from -16% to +55%| with greatest decreases in July and August| greatest increases in May and June) and result from complex and contrasting intra-basin changes in precipitation| evaporation and snow storage/melt. Whilst overall results are highly GCM dependent (in both direction and magnitude)| this uncertainty is primarily driven by differences in GCM projections of future precipitation. In contrast| there is strong consistency between GCMs in terms of both increased potential evapotranspiration and a shift to an earlier and less substantial snowmelt season. Indeed| in the upper Mekong (Lancang sub-basin)| the temperature-related signal in discharge is strong enough to overwhelm the precipitation-related uncertainty in the direction of change in discharge| with scenarios from all GCMs leading to increased river flow from April-June and decreased flow from July-August. 12487,2011,2,4,Uncertainty in water resources availability in the Okavango River basin as a result of climate change,This paper assesses the hydrological response to scenarios of climate change in the Okavango River catchment in Southern Africa. Climate scenarios are constructed representing different changes in global mean temperature from an ensemble of 7 climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a substantial change in mean flow associated with a global warming of 2 degrees C. However| there is considerable uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of the projected changes between different climate models| implying that the ensemble mean is not an appropriate generalised indicator of impact. The uncertainty in response between different climate model patterns is considerably greater than the range due to uncertainty in hydrological model parameterisation. There is also a clear need to evaluate the physical mechanisms associated with the model projected changes in this region. The implications for water resource management policy are considered. 12831,2011,4,4,Uncertainty of Future Precipitation Change Due to Global Warming Associated with Sea Surface Temperature Change in the Tropical Pacific,The effects of future tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) changes on regional precipitation projections are statistically studied for December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) experiments. The present climate precipitation responses to Nino3 SST variability appear as an uncertainty with regards to future regional precipitation changes among the CMIP3 model projections. Compared with the CMIP3 models projecting La Nina-like Pacific SST changes| the models projecting El Nino-like Pacific SST changes tend to simulate more precipitation in future DJF over the tropical central Pacific| southeastern North America and the tropical western Indian Ocean| and less over the tropical northwestern Pacific| the tropical South Pacific and tropical South America. For JJA| the models projecting El Nino-like Pacific SST changes tend to simulate greater future precipitation in the tropical central Pacific and less over the Maritime Continent and around Central America. Interestingly| the present climate features of the delayed JJA precipitation response to previous DJF Nino3 SST variability also appear as differences in future JJA precipitation changes between the models projecting future El Nino-like and La Nina-like Pacific SST changes in DJF. Compared to the later models| the former models have a tendency to show more precipitation south of Japan and south of the equator in the central to eastern Pacific| and less in the subtropical northwestern Pacific. CMIP3 model analysis indicates that the projected El Nino-like SST changes are related to the present precipitation climatology of the models in the near-equatorial eastern Pacific for each DIE and HA season| suggesting the importance of realistically simulating present precipitation climatology in the tropical Pacific for future projections. 3220,2011,3,3,Uncertainty| rationality and cooperation in the context of climate change,Climate change represents the largest social dilemma humans have ever faced| where individual actors maximise their personal gain by emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere even though this is detrimental to the collective global good. Cooperation on a global scale is urgently required if we are to overcome this problem. However| this is difficult to achieve because cooperators pay the cost of reducing emissions while any benefits are shared between cooperators and free-riders alike. In a risk-free| rational world cooperative behaviour can be promoted through mechanisms that increase the benefit of cooperating relative to free-riding| such as rewards or sanctions. In reality| however| outcomes are seldom certain and humans rarely behave rationally when confronted with risky prospects. Here| we argue that effective policies to mitigate global climate change should incorporate mechanisms to foster cooperation| but also account for both uncertainty and irrational responses that may inhibit collective action. 12523,2011,2,4,Understanding changes in the Himalayan cryosphere using remote sensing techniques,In the Himalayas| a large area is covered by glaciers and seasonal snow and changes in its extent can influence availability of water in the Himalayan Rivers. In this paper| changes in glacial extent| glacial mass balance and seasonal snow cover are discussed. Glacial retreat was estimated for 1868 glaciers in 11 basins distributed in the Indian Himalaya since 1962. The investigation has shown an overall reduction in glacier area from 6332 to 5329km2 from 1962 to 2001/2 - an overall deglaciation of 16%. Snow line at the end of ablation season on the Chhota Shigri glacier observed using field and satellite methods suggests a change in altitude from 4900 to 5200m from the late 1970s to present. Seasonal snow cover was monitored in the 28 river sub-basins using normalized difference snow index (NDSI) technique in Central and Western Himalaya. The investigation has shown that in the early part of winter| i.e. from October to December| a large amount of snow retreat was observed. For many basins located in lower altitude and in the south of the Pir Panjal range| snow ablation was observed throughout the winter season. In addition| average stream runoff of the Baspa basin for the month of December increased by 75%. This combination of glacial retreat| negative mass balance| early melting of seasonal snow cover and winter-time increase in stream runoff might suggest an influence of global warming on the Himalayan cryosphere. 12554,2011,3,4,Up in the Clouds: Is Sustainable Use of Tropical Montane Cloud Forests Possible in Malaysia?,Perched atop misty mountains| tropical montane cloud forests are one of Earth's most imperiled and neglected ecosystems. More than half of these forests occur in Southeast Asia; those in Malaysia are considered some of the best studied in the region. Malaysia has numerous mountains that are exceptionally rich in biodiversity and sustain numerous locally endemic species| but they are also threatened by expanding forestry| agriculture| infrastructure| and global warming. Malaysia serves as an excellent case study to illustrate the issues and challenges associated with tropical cloud forest conservation. We critically assess the current status of Malaysia's cloud forests-focusing on their biological uniqueness and prospects for long-term survival-and propose conservation strategies for agricultural| forestry| tourism| and policy sectors to help conserve these endangered ecosystems. It is our hope that decisionmakers around the region can use our review to evaluate and improve their national strategies related to cloud forest conservation. 12217,2011,3,3,Updating the carbon footprint of the Galician fishing activity (NW Spain),Recent life cycle assessment studies have revealed the relevance of cooling agent leakage when assessing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated by fishing vessel operations. The goal of this communication is to update the carbon footprinting of the Galician fishing activity (NW Spain) by including the GHG emissions from cooling agent leakage. Results proved the relevant role played by refrigerants regarding their contribution to the carbon footprint of fishing activities. Thus| an overall increase of 13% was found when comparing the final global carbon footprint for the Galician fishing activity with previous calculations that did not include these emissions. Nevertheless| further efforts should be made in order to provide robust data in this respect. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12746,2011,2,4,Upper Temperature Limits of Tropical Marine Ectotherms: Global Warming Implications,Animal physiology| ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics| where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated| i.e.| upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however| animals| despite their respective tidal height| were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1 degrees C hour(-1)| the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52 degrees C| but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41 degrees C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change| however| affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour| upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40 degrees C to 35.4 degrees C| while the decrease was more than 10 degrees C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term| activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3 degrees C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming. 12178,2011,2,4,Upslope migration of Andean trees,Aim Climate change causes shifts in species distributions| or 'migrations'. Despite the centrality of species distributions to biodiversity conservation| the demonstrated large migration of tropical plant species in response to climate change in the past| and the expected sensitivity of species distributions to modern climate change| no study has tested for modern species migrations in tropical plants. Here we conduct a first test of the hypothesis that increasing temperatures are causing tropical trees to migrate to cooler areas. Location Tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot| south-eastern Peru| South America. Methods We use data from repeated (2003/04-2007/08) censuses of 14 1-ha forest inventory plots spanning an elevational gradient from 950 to 3400 m in Manu National Park in south-eastern Peru| to characterize changes in the elevational distributions of 38 Andean tree genera. We also analyse changes in the genus-level composition of the inventory plots through time. Results We show that most tropical Andean tree genera shifted their mean distributions upslope over the study period and that the mean rate of migration is approximately 2.5-3.5 vertical metres upslope per year. Consistent with upward migrations we also find increasing abundances of tree genera previously distributed at lower elevations in the majority of study plots. Main conclusions These findings are in accord with the a priori hypothesis of upward shifts in species ranges due to elevated temperatures| and are potentially the first documented evidence of present-day climate-driven migrations in a tropical plant community. The observed mean rate of change is less than predicted from the temperature increases for the region| possibly due to the influence of changes in moisture or non-climatic factors such as substrate| species interactions| lags in tree community response and/or dispersal limitations. Whatever the cause(s)| continued slower-than-expected migration of tropical Andean trees would indicate a limited ability to respond to increased temperatures| which may lead to increased extinction risks with further climate change. 3266,2011,2,4,Urban and rural mortality rates during heat waves in Berlin and Brandenburg| Germany,In large cities such as Berlin| human mortality rates increase during intense heat waves. Analysis of relevant data from north-eastern Germany revealed that| during the heat waves that occurred between 1990 and 2006| health risks were higher for older people in both rural and urban areas| but that| during the two main heat waves within that 17-year period of time| the highest mortality rates were from the city of Berlin| and in particular from its most densely built-up districts. Adaptation measures will need to be developed| particularly within urban areas| in order to cope with the expected future intensification of heat waves due to global climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12861,2011,4,4,Urban Coastal Flooding and Climate Change,Coastal urban flooding is increasing| affecting mainly to new urban settlements but also to the traditional ones. This is due either to sea level and continental climatic factors. But also because population has increased at the same time being coastal areas selectively affected in old and new settlements| leading to need on flood resilience improvements The planet has been suffering a global warming change leading to sea level rise that is happening since the Little Ice Age although rising since 19th century. It comes with other synergic changes in marine and littoral dynamics| like El Nino South sedation and cyclonic storms. But other relative sea level movements are interfering in each segment of the coast with a local or even a regional character| being the main problem to discern the factors affecting these vertical movements This paper affronts the problem of the coastal urban floods| analyzing their increasing and variability| discussing the rebounds and the subsidence| discerning them from the global change in the long term| and the influence of other sea level changes in the "short term": meteorological phenomena (storm surge and set-up)| wave set-up and other long waves| in order to allow a more accurate Flood Resilience measures. 3353,2011,2,4,Urban growth| climate change| and freshwater availability,Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050| an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents| they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model| demographic projections| and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world| where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage| defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050| demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted| an issue of special importance in regions such as India's Western Ghats| where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations. 3182,2011,3,4,Urban Health Inequities and the Added Pressure of Climate Change: An Action-Oriented Research Agenda,Climate change will likely exacerbate already existing urban social inequities and health risks| thereby exacerbating existing urban health inequities. Cities in low- and middle-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Urbanization is both a cause of and potential solution to global climate change. Most population growth in the foreseeable future will occur in urban areas primarily in developing countries. How this growth is managed has enormous implications for climate change given the increasing concentration and magnitude of economic production in urban localities| as well as the higher consumption practices of urbanites| especially the middle classes| compared to rural populations. There is still much to learn about the extent to which climate change affects urban health equity and what can be done effectively in different socio-political and socio-economic contexts to improve the health of urban dwelling humans and the environment. But it is clear that equity-oriented climate change adaptation means attention to the social conditions in which urban populations live-this is not just a climate change policy issue| it requires inter-sectoral action. Policies and programs in urban planning and design| workplace health and safety| and urban agriculture can help mitigate further climate change and adapt to existing climate change. If done well| these will also be good for urban health equity. 12504,2011,3,4,User- and Climate-tailored Design - a vision and chance for global acceptance of sustainable building solutions,User- and Climate-tailored Design - a vision and chance for global acceptance of sustainable building solutions. The paper gives an overview on background and outlook on sustainable development as a trend and vision in the building sector Focus is on the necessity to adapt existing experience values and concepts in when transferring them to other climate zones and cultures than they originate from. This approach shows a great potential in regards to a solution of problems like global warming and limited resources. Experiences with analyzed projects show however| that| despite the goal to create working and healthy homes| technologies and concepts often are not tailored to local conditions. Using the example of a cooperation project of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich) and the Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (EMPA) in which a climate adapted building envelope was developed the paper shows what modifications have to be made. This is especially relevant in the field of building physics in order to increase efficiency and avoid damages to the building and inhabitants and create sustainable homes. Besides this the interchange of the developed envelope| associated production methods and other relevant frame conditions| like local resource availability| is used to demonstrate what barriers and potential synergies can emerge in the course of such a project. 3455,2011,2,4,Using ensemble climate projections to assess probabilistic hydrological change in the Nordic region,Assessing hydrological effects of global climate change at local scales is important for evaluating future hazards to society. However| applying climate model projections to local impact models can be difficult as outcomes can vary considerably between different climate models| and including results from many models is demanding. This study combines multiple climate model outputs with hydrological impact modelling through the use of response surfaces. Response surfaces represent the sensitivity of the impact model to incremental changes in climate variables and show probabilies for reaching a priori determined thresholds. Response surfaces were calculated using the HBV hydrological model for three basins in Sweden. An ensemble of future climate projections was then superimposed onto each response surface| producing a probability estimate for exceeding the threshold being evaluated. Site specific impacts thresholds were used where applicable. Probabilistic trends for future change in hazards or potential can be shown and evaluated. It is particularly useful for visualising the range of probable outcomes from climate models and can easily be updated with new results as they are made available. 12699,2011,4,4,Using first arrival dates to infer bird migration phenology,Understanding phenological responses to climate change requires explicit quantitative estimation of phenological distributions. First arrival dates (FAD) are frequently used| but biased| noisy and qualitative metrics of migration phenology. Despite critique against the use of FAD| better understanding of the risks and possible usefulness of this readily available data type is needed. I here present a stochastic model for the number of observed migrating birds during a given season. Firstly| I simulate data according to the model to quantify and describe how FAD are affected by population size| observation effort and observability| and provide some guidelines for interpreting earlier results and doing statistical correction. Secondly| I describe principles for how FAD and complementary daily migration data can be combined to fit phenological distribution functions| providing coherent quantitative measures of phenology. Using data on tree pipits (Anthers trivialis) I demonstrate how this can be done using generalized linear models. 3236,2011,2,4,Using plant functional traits to explain community composition across a strong environmental filter in Australian alpine snowpatches,Environmental filters act to limit the local community assemblage from the regional species pool by restricting the viable trait states that can occur there. In alpine snowpatches| the timing of snowmelt is a strong environmental filter. In coming decades| the strength of this filter is likely to relax with global climate change. We used three continuous plant functional traits (leaf area| plant height| seed mass) and their divergence (using the FD(var) index) to document current patterns of community assembly and predict plant community responses to future environmental filters in alpine snowpatch vegetation. The community trait-weighted mean for leaf area and height| but not seed mass| was significantly higher in early snowmelt zones relative to mid and late melting zones across all snowpatches. Mean FD(var) for height (but not leaf area or seed mass)| by contrast| was substantially lower in early snowmelt zones| indicating that species growing in early melt zones are consistently taller than those growing in other zones. These results suggest that if climate change leads to earlier snowmelt and hence| a longer growing season| taller (more competitive) species with larger leaf areas (more productive) may replace short species in snowpatches as these plant communities re-assemble in response to changing environmental filters. 3441,2011,2,4,Validating satellite phenology through intensive ground observation and landscape scaling in a mixed seasonal forest,Phenology is a key component of monitoring terrestrial ecosystem variations in response to global climate change. Satellite-measured land surface phenology (LSP) has been widely used to assess large scale phenological patterns and processes. However| the accuracy of LSP is rarely validated with spatially compatible field data due to the significant spatiotemporal scale mismatch. In this study| we employ intensive field observations specifically designed to address this deficiency. High density/frequency spring phenological observations were collected in a mixed seasonal forest during 2008 and 2009. A landscape up-scaling approach was used to derive landscape phenology (LP) indices from plot-level observations in order to validate Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based LSP. Results show that the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived start of spring season (SOS) measure was able to predict LP full bud burst date with absolute errors less than two days. In addition| LSP derived SOS captured inter-annual variations and spatial differences that agreed with ground observations. Comparison of complete time series of LP and LSP revealed that fundamental differences exist between the two observation means| e.g.| LP development had increased influence on LSP during the course of spring onset. Therefore| inferring continuous LP processes directly from LSP measures could be problematic. However| using LSP derived from techniques such as logistic curve modeling for extracting seasonal markers appears more promising. This study contributes to a more explicit understanding of the linkages between remotely sensed phenology and traditionally observed (ground-based) phenology. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 11956,2011,3,3,Validation of a numerical code for the simulation of a short-term CO(2) release in an open environment: Effect of wind conditions and obstacles,Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is one of the possible mitigation measures to reduce the CO(2) emissions produced from anthropogenic sources and thus help address the issue of global warming. Accidental CO(2) releases may occur at any of the CCS stages| having potentially harmful consequences on the people who work in the CCS facilities| the general public in their vicinity and the environment. CFD is an increasingly used tool to investigate the behavior of released substances and predict the consequences of hazardous scenarios. This information aids the development of mitigation methods to minimize the consequences of an accident. The validation of numerical codes and models is a necessary preliminary step before their application to safety and risk assessment analysis. In this context| numerical simulations of CO(2) release and dispersion field experiments were performed with a CFD code. The experimental data were taken from the Kit Fox CO(2) gas field experiments which were designed to investigate the effect of ground roughness of industrial process plants and of meteorological conditions on the formation and extent of the CO(2) gas cloud. This study presents a comparison between the simulation results and the experimental measurements in order to assess the accuracy of the code with different modeling approaches. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12195,2011,4,4,Validation of soil organic carbon dynamics model in the semi-arid tropics in Niger| West Africa,The fertility of sandy soils in the Sahelian zone (SZ) is extremely low. This poor soil fertility is one of the limiting factors of crop production in the SZ. Therefore| it is imperative to improve or to maintain soil fertility through various agricultural management methods. Further| it is well known that soil organic matter plays an important role in improving the physico-chemical properties of these sandy infertile soils. Therefore| it is essential to develop a suitable tool for the appropriate evaluation of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in the SZ. Therefore| the Rothamsted carbon model (Roth-C) was verified in 32 treatments of two long-term field experiments with and without crop residue application. These experiments were performed by ICRISAT. The performance of the model was evaluated by statistical methods using four indices (RMSE: root mean square error| LOFIT: lack of fit| r: correlation coefficient| and M: mean difference). As a result| the predicted SOC values in the case without crop residue management decreased with time in approximately 10 cultivated years. In contrast| in the case with crop residue application| the predicted SOC remained roughly equal to the initial SOC value during the term observed. Mostly| the Roth-C-modelled values agreed well with the actual value. RMSE and LOFIT| the statistical indicators of agreement between predicted and observed values| showed a significant conformity between the predicted and observed SOC values in all the 32 treatments. This fact means that Roth-C can estimate long-term SOC dynamics of several technical options that developed with short-term trials. Moreover the annual carbon requirement for SOC maintaining can be calculate if enough number of cases was estimated. And also analysis of regional carbon dynamics was made possible with using Roth-C model. It will contribute to show the sustainable development in SZ against global warming and other climatic changes. 3211,2011,3,3,Valuing energy policy attributes for environmental management: Choice experiment evidence from a research institution,Many governments| firms| institutions and individuals have become increasingly cognizant of their impact on the environment| most notably with respect to global climate change. Coupled with the possibility of future regulations aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions| firms and institutions have begun to critically evaluate their own carbon footprint. This paper examines the preferences of stakeholders within a large academic institution for attributes of alternative greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction strategies. The attributes considered by constituents include: the fuel portfolio mix| effort for conserving energy use| carbon emissions reduction| timeframe for emissions reduction to be achieved and cost. We use a choice experiment technique that enables the examination of greenhouse gas reduction program attribute preferences across three constituent groups. The results show that each of the constituent groups have a positive WTP for carbon emissions reductions and prefer investments in reductions in the shorter- rather than longer-term. The results also suggest differences between the constituent groups in their WTP for types of fuels in the fuel portfolio. Finally| we use the results to examine the welfare implications of different combinations of the policy attributes that coincide with alternative GHG program strategies. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11812,2011,4,4,Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century,Recent studies have raised concerns that tropical cyclones (TCs)| particularly severe TCs| have become more frequent in many places in response to global warming. Other studies discuss errors in TC data that can cause large inaccuracies in some of the observed trends. Additional studies conclude that TCs are likely to become more intense in the future in response to global warming| while regional modelling studies for the south-west Pacific near north-eastern Australia project an intensification of TCs and either a decrease or no change in TC numbers. Here we describe and use a new data base of severe land-falling TCs for eastern Australia derived from numerous historical sources| that has taken over a decade to develop. It provides one of the world's longest reliable records of tropical cyclone activity| and allows us to document changes over much longer periods than has been done previously for the Southern Hemisphere. Land-fall numbers are shown to vary a great deal on interannual| decadal and longer time-scales. The interannual variability is consistent with previous studies using much shorter data sets: land-fall numbers are well-simulated as a Poisson process and are modulated by the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Land-falls occurred almost twice as often in La Nia years as they did in El Nio years| and multiple land-falls only occurred during La Nia years. The statistical link between land-falls and pre-season values of the Southern Oscillation Index provides a modest predictive capability. Decadal variability in ENSO drives some of the decadal variability in land-fall numbers. The sign and magnitude of trends calculated over 30 years periods vary substantially| highlighting that caution needs to be taken in making inferences about trends based on e.g. satellite era data only. The linear trend in the number of severe TCs making land-fall over eastern Australia declined from about 0.45 TCs/year in the early 1870s to about 0.17 TCs/year in recent times-a 62% decline. This decline can be partially explained by a weakening of the Walker Circulation| and a natural shift towards a more El Nio-dominated era. The extent to which global warming might be also be partially responsible for the decline in land-falls-if it is at all-is unknown. 11837,2011,2,4,Variability in the Southern Annular Mode determines wildfire activity in Patagonia,Under the current global warming trend| wildfire activity is expected to decrease in biomass-limited fire regimes but increase in drought-limited fire regimes with abundant biomass. We examined the effects of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on interannual variability in wildfire activity in xeric woodland and temperate rainforest ecosystems across a latitudinal range of 10 degrees in temperate southwestern South America (SSA). Based on 42 fire history sites based on nearly 600 fire-scarred trees (the largest available dataset of annually resolved tree-ring records of fire activity in the Southern Hemisphere)| we show that years of widespread fire in both xeric woodland and rainforest ecosystems are associated with positive departures of SAM. The association of positive SAM with increased fire activity is explained by the teleconnection of SAM to spring drought across most of SSA. During the late 20th century| only the rainforest ecosystem shows a strong increase in fire activity| which is consistent both with upward trends in SAM and with warming conditions. We attribute the lack of increased burning in the xeric woodland environment to socioeconomic factors and fire behavior (low severity) that facilitate more effective fire suppression in the xeric woodland habitat. Given projected future increases in SAM and the associated warm-dry trend| wildfire activity in much of SSA is likely to increase during the 21st century. Citation: Holz| A.| and T. T. Veblen (2011)| Variability in the Southern Annular Mode determines wildfire activity in Patagonia| Geophys. Res. Lett.| 38| L14710| doi:10.1029/2011GL047674. 11900,2011,2,4,Variation in foliar delta(15)N among oriental oak (Quercus variabilis) stands over eastern China: Patterns and interactions,The patterns of variation in natural abundance of foliar and soil ((15)N) (expressed as delta(15)N) related to geographical and climatic variables frequently vary over plant species or plant function groups. It is essential to identify the pattern of foliar delta(15)N for specific plant species which has a widespread distribution and to explore the underlying mechanisms in the context of environmental change such as global warming and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Oriental oak (Quercus variabilis Bl.)| characterized by cork bark| is a widely distributing deciduous broadleaf tree species that can be found in temperate and subtropical areas of East Asia. In this study| the variations in foliar and soil (15)N were investigated based on the data of leaf and soil samples collected in 22 stands over eastern China (from 24 to 41 degrees N in latitude and 102 to 123 degrees E in longitude)| and the mechanisms were discussed. The results showed that for oriental oak stands| mean foliar and soil delta(15)N were - 4.8%. and 2.0%| respectively| indicating an evident (15)N enrichment in the soils. The average foliar delta(15)N value of oriental oak in warm temperate forest was significantly lower (p<0.01)| while a higher enrichment factor was also observed in temperate forests| than that in the subtropical areas. Over the eastern China| the foliar delta(15)N increased linearly and significantly with increasing mean annual precipitation (MAP) (R(2)=0.481 and p<0.001) and mean annual temperature (MAT) (R(2)=0.285 and p=0.01) and decreasing pH value of rain water (R(2)=0.333 and p=0.005). With these results in eastern China| there are great implications in understanding how nitrogen dynamics of ecosystems responds to warming| drought and acid rain. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12386,2011,4,4,Variation in leaf nitrogen and phosphorus stoichiometry in Picea abies across Europe: An analysis based on local observations,Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) and N:P ratio in terrestrial plants and the patterns at a large geographical scale are an important issue in ecological stoichiometry. In particular| it is essential to know that for a single species| how the N:P stoichiometry varies with climatic factors in the context of global warming. Our analysis was based on a data set including 2583 observations at 441 sites on nutritional status of Norway spruce (Picea abies L) located in European counties (including Austria| Belgium| Bulgaria| Czech Rep.| Finland| Germany| Ireland| Italy| Lithuania| Norway| Slovak Rep.| Slovenia| United Kingdom). Our objectives are to demonstrate how leaf N and P concentration and N:P ratio in Norway spruce vary with altitude (ALT)| latitude (LAT)| longitude (LON)| mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) across Europe. The results showed that for 1-year-old needles of Norway spruce| the N and P concentration were 13.28 mg g(-1)| 1.41 mg g(-1) and the N:P ratio was 9.76. Leaf N displayed a convex curve pattern with increasing MAT and decreasing LAT from the boreal Europe to the Mediterranean area. The N concentration and N:P generally reached peak at about 7 degrees C in MAT or 53 degrees N in LAT. The N:P ratio varied non-linearly with LAT and MAP| but linearly with MAT. Leaf N concentration and N:P ratio decreased linearly with increasing ALT in temperate European area. Across Europe| that the patterns of leaf N and N:P ratio were mainly driven by climate-related geochemistry and plant physiology| but also greatly impacted by anthropogenic N deposition. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12456,2011,2,4,Variation in the distribution of ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) recruits: links with coastal upwelling and climate change,In this analysis| an atypical northward shift in the distribution of age-1 ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) recruits off Oregon in 2000 and 2002-2004 was linked to anomolously strong coastal upwelling winds off southern Oregon (42 degrees N latitude) in April-July of the year of larval release (t-1). This is the first clear evidence that strong upwelling winds can depress local recruitment of ocean shrimp. Regression analysis confirmed a long-term negative correlation between log(e) of ocean shrimp recruitment and April sea level height (SLH) at Crescent City| California| in the year of larval release| for both northern and southern Oregon waters. The regional pattern of ocean shrimp catches and seasonal upwelling winds showed that| although the timing of the spring transition as reflected in April SLH drives ocean shrimp recruitment success off Oregon generally| the strength and consistency of spring upwelling limits the distribution of large concentrations of ocean shrimp at the southern end of the northern California/Oregon/Washington area. A northward shift in 1999 and 2001-03 in the northern edge of this 'zone of maximum upwelling' is the likely cause of the weak southern Oregon recruitment and resulting atypical distribution of ocean shrimp observed off Oregon in 2000 and 2002-04| with a return to a more typical catch distribution as spring upwelling moderated in subsequent years. It is noted that a northward shift in the conditions that produce strong and steady spring upwelling winds is consistent with many predictions of global climate models under conditions of global warming. 12822,2011,2,2,Varying boreal forest response to Arctic environmental change at the Firth River| Alaska,The response of boreal forests to anthropogenic climate change remains uncertain| with potentially significant impacts for the global carbon cycle| albedo| canopy evapotranspiration and feedbacks into further climate change. Here| we focus on tree-ring data from the Firth River site at treeline in northeastern Alaska| in a tundra-forest transition region where pronounced warming has already occurred. Both tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies were developed to identify the nature of tree growth and density responses to climatic and environmental changes in white spruce (Picea glauca)| a dominant Arctic treeline species. Good agreement was found between the interannual fluctuations in the TRW chronology and summer temperatures from 1901 to 1950| whereas no significant relationships were found from 1951 to 2001| supporting evidence of significant divergence between TRW and summer temperature in the second half of the 20th century. In contrast to this unstable climatic response in the TRW record| the high frequency July-August temperature signal in the MXD series seems reasonably stable through the 20th century. Wider and denser rings were more frequent during the 20th century| particularly after 1950| than in previous centuries. Finally| comparison between the tree-ring proxies and a satellite-derived vegetation index suggests that TRW and MXD correlate with vegetation productivity at the landscape level at different times of the growing season. 11882,2011,2,4,Vector Competence of New Zealand Mosquitoes for Selected Arboviruses,New Zealand (NZ) historically has been free of arboviral activity with the exception of Whataroa virus (Togaviridae: Alphavirus)| which is established in bird populations and is transmitted by local mosquitoes. This naive situation is threatened by global warming| invasive mosquitoes| and tourism. To determine the threat of selected medically important arboviruses to NZ| vector competence assays were conducted using field collected endemic and introduced mosquito species. Four alphaviruses (Togaviridae): Barmah Forest virus| Chikungunya virus| Ross River virus| and Sindbis virus| and five flaviviruses (Flaviviridae): Dengue virus 2| Japanese encephalitis virus| Murray Valley encephalitis virus| West Nile virus| and Yellow fever virus were evaluated. Results indicate some NZ mosquito species are highly competent vectors of selected arboviruses| particularly alphaviruses| and may pose a threat were one of these arboviruses introduced at a time when the vector was prevalent and the climatic conditions favorable for virus transmission. 11600,2011,4,2,Vegetation feedback under future global warming,It has been well documented that vegetation plays an important role in the climate system. However| vegetation is typically kept constant when climate models are used to project anthropogenic climate change under a range of emission scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Here| an atmospheric general circulation model| and an asynchronously coupled system of an atmospheric and an equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model are forced by monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for the periods 2051-2060 and 2090-2098 as projected with 17 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report| and by appropriate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations under the A2 emission scenario. The effects of vegetation feedback under future global warming are then investigated. It is found that the simulated composition and distribution of vegetation during 2051-2060 (2090-2098) differ greatly from the present| and global vegetation tends to become denser as expressed by a 21% (36%) increase in global mean leaf area index| which is most pronounced at the middle and high northern latitudes. Vegetation feedback has little effect on globally averaged surface temperature. On a regional scale| however| it induces statistically significant changes in surface temperature| in particular over most parts of continental Eurasia east of about 60A degrees E where annual surface temperature is expected to increase by 0.1-1.0 K| with an average of about 0.4 K for each future period. These changes can mostly be explained by changes in surface albedo resulting from vegetation changes in the context of future global warming. 12736,2011,2,4,VERIFICATION OF CONDITIONS FOR IRRIGATION WATER APPLICATION IN DRAINAGE EXPERIMENTAL FIELD IN AVRAM IANCU| THE BIHOR COUNTY (SUB-IRRIGATION) WITH DrainVSubIR PROGRAM,Agricultural land in the western part of Romania| affected by successive droughts and excessive moisture combination of rainfall and high water groundwater in the context of current global climate change| show a trend of desertification| manifested by an increased frequency and periods of drought. The main method of fighting desertification is by using irrigation| and in the sub-west areas| provided with drainage systems| we have to analyse the possibility of using these systems for giving water from irrigation to the plant| or the study of reversibility in the drainage - sub-irrigation. The objective of this work is to check the results obtained in horizontal dimensions of the drains on heavy soils with high clay content| affected by mixed excess moisture| using DrainVSubIR program for determining the distance between drains| compared to the results of the research conducted in the drainage field Avram Iancu| the Bihor county and checking drainage reversibility between drainage and sub-irrigation for variants studied. In this experimental field| on a cambic gleical phaeziom 3 distances between the drain were observed between 1984-1990| on distances between 15| 30 and 45 m| with a tube made out of PVC| with 6.5 cm in diameter| with a filter in the ground| and 10 and 20 cm in height. In order to confirm the results from the research field| the distances between drain channels| for the conditions given by the soil type| by using the DrainVSubIR made out 3 modules| the first one calculated using the Ernst-David relation| the second one for verifying the possibility of using the sub-irrigation drainage| and the third one for the technical and economical calculation of a hectare of equipped land. The conclusions verify that the results from the field regarding the drainage variant| with the distance between the drains of 30 m and possibilities of using sub-irrigation on some variants of drainage| in the conditions on supplementary set up on drainage channels. 11585,2011,2,4,Vibrio infections from food and sea water,Vibrio is a genus of bacteria present in surface and coastal waters as well as in marine organisms worldwide. In many countries| pathogenic Vibrio species are a main cause of bacterial diarrhea| which may result from comsumption of contaminated seafood and fish products or from drinking contaminated water. Vibrio infections may also gain in importance in our regions due to global warming and the increase in the world trade of seafood. The research network "VibrioNet" studies pathogenic Vibrios in the marine environment and in seafood consumed by humans as a potential| new emerging zoonotic agent. An assessment of the risk arising from pathogenic non-cholera-vibrios in central Europe is the target of a multidisciplinary research effort. The research network will be strengthened by cooperations with international partners from countries in which Vibrio infections play a major role (Bangladesh| Chile| India| Thailand| and Vietnam). 11730,2011,2,3,Visceral leishmaniasis: An update,During the last decade| visceral leishmaniasis has been reconsidered in its epidemiology and strategies for diagnosis| treatment and prevention. This vectorial disease| responsible for more than 50|000 deaths each year across India| East Africa| South America| the Mediterranean area| Central Asia and China| is currently spreading over new territories. This formerly rural disease has even reached cities in South America. This spreading is caused by environmental changes due to global warming or human activity| and by the movement of workers and refugees. As a consequence| the burden of HIV/Leishmania coinfection is increasing in many developing countries even though effective antiretroviral therapy has led to a marked decrease in its incidence in Europe. The disease is now handled differently than it was 10 years ago: PCR has become the most accurate tool for diagnosis and follow-up in developed countries| and field diagnostic tools have been developed (antigenuria| rK39 dipstick). While resistance to antimoniate has appeared in India and Europe| new therapies have been evaluated such as miltefosine| the first oral therapy| or short treatment with liposomal amphotericin B. In France| liposomal amphotericin B has supplanted antimoniate meglumine because of better tolerance and shorter hospitalization duration. Protecting dogs through immunization or collars impregnated with deltamethrin proved effective to prevent zoonotic leishmaniasis due to Leishmania infantum. (C) 2010 Societe nationale francaise de medecine interne (SNFMI). Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved. 11777,2011,2,4,Warm Water and Cool Nests Are Best. How Global Warming Might Influence Hatchling Green Turtle Swimming Performance,For sea turtles nesting on beaches surrounded by coral reefs| the most important element of hatchling recruitment is escaping predation by fish as they swim across the fringing reef| and as a consequence hatchlings that minimize their exposure to fish predation by minimizing the time spent crossing the fringing reef have a greater chance of surviving the reef crossing. One way to decrease the time required to cross the fringing reef is to maximize swimming speed. We found that both water temperature and nest temperature influence swimming performance of hatchling green turtles| but in opposite directions. Warm water increases swimming ability| with hatchling turtles swimming in warm water having a faster stroke rate| while an increase in nest temperature decreases swimming ability with hatchlings from warm nests producing less thrust per stroke. 12201,2011,2,4,Warming alters the size spectrum and shifts the distribution of biomass in freshwater ecosystems,Organism size is one of the key determinants of community structure| and its relationship with abundance can describe how biomass is partitioned among the biota within an ecosystem. An outdoor freshwater mesocosm experiment was used to determine how warming of similar to 4 degrees C would affect the size| biomass and taxonomic structure of planktonic communities. Warming increased the steepness of the community size spectrum by increasing the prevalence of small organisms| primarily within the phytoplankton assemblage and it also reduced the mean and maximum size of phytoplankton by approximately one order of magnitude. The observed shifts in phytoplankton size structure were reflected in changes in phytoplankton community composition| though zooplankton taxonomic composition was unaffected by warming. Furthermore| warming reduced community biomass and total phytoplankton biomass| although zooplankton biomass was unaffected. This resulted in an increase in the zooplankton to phytoplankton biomass ratio in the warmed mesocosms| which could be explained by faster turnover within the phytoplankton assemblages. Overall| warming shifted the distribution of phytoplankton size towards smaller individuals with rapid turnover and low standing biomass| resulting in a reorganization of the biomass structure of the food webs. These results indicate future environmental warming may have profound effects on the structure and functioning of aquatic communities and ecosystems. 11742,2011,2,4,Warming and grazing affect soil labile carbon and nitrogen pools differently in an alpine meadow of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China,Small but highly bioactive labile carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools are of great importance in controlling terrestrial C and N fluxes| whilst long-term C and N storage is determined by less labile but relatively large sizes of C and N pools. Little information is available about the effects of global warming and grazing on different forms of C and N pools in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of warming and grazing on the sizes of different soil labile C and N pools and N transformation in this region. A free-air temperature enhancement system in a controlled warming-grazing experiment had been implemented since May 2006. Infrared heaters were used to manipulate temperature| and a moderate grazing intensity was simulated by Tibetan sheep. After 3 years' warming| soil samples were taken from the four treatment plots: no warming with no grazing; no warming with grazing; warming with no grazing; and warming with grazing. Concentrations of inorganic N in the 40-cm soil profiles were measured by a flow injection analyser. Microbial biomass C (MBC) and microbial biomass N (MBN) were measured by the fumigation-extraction method| and soluble organic C (SOC) and soluble organic N (SON) were determined by high-temperature catalytic oxidation. Total N (TN)| C isotope composition (delta(13)C) and N isotope composition (delta(15)N) were determined using an isotope ratio mass spectrometer. Net N transformation under low temperature was studied in a laboratory incubation experiment. Warming and grazing treatments affected soil C and N pools differently| and these effects varied with soil depth. Warming significantly increased TN| MBC| MBN| and SON and decreased delta(13)C at the 10-20 and 20-30 cm soil depths| whilst grazing generally decreased SON at the 10-20 and 20-30 cm| and MBC at 20-30 cm. At the 0-10 cm depth| neither warming nor grazing alone affects these soil parameters significantly| indicating that there could be considerable perturbation on the soil surface. However| grazing alone increased NO (3) (-) -N| total inorganic N| SOC and delta(15)N at the 0-10 cm depth. Incubated at 4A degrees C| warming (particularly with grazing) led to net immobilization of N| but no-warming treatments led to net N mineralization| whilst nitrification was strong across all these treatments. Correlations between MBC and SOC| and TN and MBN or SON were positive. However| SON was less well correlated with TN and MBN compared with the highly positive correlations between SOC and MBC. It is clearly demonstrated that warming and grazing affected labile C and N pools significantly| but differently after 3 years' treatments: Warming tended to enlarge labile C and N pools through increased litter inputs| whilst grazing tended to increase inorganic N pools| decrease SON and accelerate N cycling. Grazing might modify the mode that warming affected soil C and N pools through its strong impacts on microbial processes and N cycling. These results suggested that interactive effects of warming and grazing on C and N pools might have significant implications for the long-term C and N storage and productivity of alpine meadow ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. 12209,2011,2,2,Warming Can Boost Denitrification Disproportionately Due to Altered Oxygen Dynamics,Background: Global warming and the alteration of the global nitrogen cycle are major anthropogenic threats to the environment. Denitrification| the biological conversion of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen| removes a substantial fraction of the nitrogen from aquatic ecosystems| and can therefore help to reduce eutrophication effects. However| potential responses of denitrification to warming are poorly understood. Although several studies have reported increased denitrification rates with rising temperature| the impact of temperature on denitrification seems to vary widely between systems. Methodology/Principal Findings: We explored the effects of warming on denitrification rates using microcosm experiments| field measurements and a simple model approach. Our results suggest that a three degree temperature rise will double denitrification rates. By performing experiments at fixed oxygen concentrations as well as with oxygen concentrations varying freely with temperature| we demonstrate that this strong temperature dependence of denitrification can be explained by a systematic decrease of oxygen concentrations with rising temperature. Warming decreases oxygen concentrations due to reduced solubility| and more importantly| because respiration rates rise more steeply with temperature than photosynthesis. Conclusions/Significance: Our results show that denitrification rates in aquatic ecosystems are strongly temperature dependent| and that this is amplified by the temperature dependencies of photosynthesis and respiration. Our results illustrate the broader phenomenon that coupling of temperature dependent reactions may in some situations strongly alter overall effects of temperature on ecological processes. 3232,2011,2,4,Warming climate advances breeding and improves synchrony of food demand and food availability in a boreal passerine,Global climate change affects ecosystems via several trophic levels. We investigated changes in the timing of breeding in the willow tit (Poecile montanus) and timing of its caterpillar food resource in relation to warming springs in a boreal forest. We used generalized linear mixed effect models to study the importance of synchrony between the timing of breeding in willow tits and the caterpillar food availability on the breeding success| measured as nestling survival rate and mean nestling weight. Both the timing of breeding and the timing of the caterpillar peak advanced during the last decades| and were well explained by spring temperatures. Unlike in most passerine populations studied| synchrony has improved with rising spring temperatures. However| it had only a modest although statistically significant positive influence on breeding success. Spring temperatures do not seem to be used as cues for the timing of caterpillar food availability by willow tits. We conclude that responses to climatic warming seem to be population| species and habitat specific| necessitating research in a wide range of taxa in different climatic zones. 12355,2011,2,2,Warming increases the proportion of primary production emitted as methane from freshwater mesocosms,Methane (CH(4)) and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) are the dominant gaseous end products of the remineralization of organic carbon and also the two largest contributors to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. We investigated whether warming altered the balance of CH(4) efflux relative to gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in a freshwater mesocosm experiment. Whole ecosystem CH(4) efflux was strongly related to temperature with an apparent activation energy of 0.85 eV. Furthermore| CH(4) efflux increased faster than ER or GPP with temperature| with all three processes having sequentially lower activation energies. Warming of 4 degrees C increased the fraction of GPP effluxing as CH(4) by 20% and the fraction of ER as CH(4) by 9%| in line with the offset in their respective activation energies. Because CH(4) is 21 times more potent as a greenhouse gas| relative to CO(2)| these results suggest freshwater ecosystems could drive a previously unknown positive feedback between warming and the carbon cycle. 11941,2011,2,4,Warming Increases the Spread of an Invasive Thistle,Background: Global warming and shifted precipitation regimes increasingly affect species abundances and distributions worldwide. Despite a large literature on species' physiological| phenological| growth| and reproductive responses to such climate change| dispersal is rarely examined. Our study aims to test whether the dispersal ability of a non-native| wind-dispersed plant species is affected by climate change| and to quantify the ramifications for future invasion spread rates. Methodology/Principal Findings: We experimentally increased temperature and precipitation in a two-cohort| factorial field study (n = 80). We found an overwhelming warming effect on plant life history: warming not only improved emergence| survival| and reproduction of the thistle Carduus nutans| but also elevated plant height| which increased seed dispersal distances. Using spatial population models| we demonstrate that these empirical warming effects on demographic vital rates| and dispersal parameters| greatly exacerbate spatial spread. Predicted levels of elevated winter precipitation decreased seed production per capitulum| but this only slightly offset the warming effect on spread. Using a spread rate decomposition technique (c*-LTRE)| we also found that plant height-mediated changes in dispersal contribute most to increased spread rate under climate change. Conclusions/Significance: We found that both dispersal and spread of this wind-dispersed plant species were strongly impacted by climate change. Dispersal responses to climate change can improve| or diminish| a species' ability to track climate change spatially| and should not be overlooked. Methods that combine both demographic and dispersal responses thus will be an invaluable complement to projections of suitable habitat under climate change. 12300,2011,2,4,Warming up the system: higher predator feeding rates but lower energetic efficiencies,Predictions on the consequences of the rapidly increasing atmospheric CO(2) levels and associated climate warming for population dynamics| ecological community structure and ecosystem functioning depend on mechanistic energetic models of temperature effects on populations and their interactions. However| such mechanistic approaches combining warming effects on metabolic (energy loss of organisms) and feeding rates (energy gain by organisms) remain a key| yet elusive| goal. Aiming to fill this void| we studied the metabolic rates and functional responses of three differently sized| predatory ground beetles on one mobile and one more resident prey species across a temperature gradient (5| 10| 15| 20| 25 and 30 degrees C). Synthesizing metabolic and functional-response theory| we develop novel mechanistic predictions how predator-prey interaction strengths (i.e.| functional responses) should respond to warming. Corroborating prior theory| warming caused strong increases in metabolism and decreases in handling time. Consistent with our novel model| we found increases in predator attack rates on a mobile prey| whereas attack rates on a mostly resident prey remained constant across the temperature gradient. Together| these results provide critically important information that environmental warming generally increases the direct short-term per capita interaction strengths between predators and their prey as described by functional-response models. Nevertheless| the several fold stronger increase in metabolism with warming caused decreases in energetic efficiencies (ratio of per capita feeding rate to metabolic rate) for all predator-prey interactions. This implies that warming of natural ecosystems may dampen predator-prey oscillations thus stabilizing their dynamics. The severe long-term implications; however| include predator starvation due to energetic inefficiency despite abundant resources. 11549,2011,2,4,Warming will affect phytoplankton differently: evidence through a mechanistic approach,Although the consequences of global warming in aquatic ecosystems are only beginning to be revealed| a key to forecasting the impact on aquatic communities is an understanding of individual species' vulnerability to increased temperature. Despite their microscopic size| phytoplankton support about half of the global primary production| drive essential biogeochemical cycles and represent the basis of the aquatic food web. At present| it is known that phytoplankton are important targets and| consequently| harbingers of climate change in aquatic systems. Therefore| investigating the capacity of phytoplankton to adapt to the predicted warming has become a relevant issue. However| considering the polyphyletic complexity of the phytoplankton community| different responses to increased temperature are expected. We experimentally tested the effects of warming on 12 species of phytoplankton isolated from a variety of environments by using a mechanistic approach able to assess evolutionary adaptation (the so-called ratchet technique). We found different degrees of tolerance to temperature rises and an interspecific capacity for genetic adaptation. The thermal resistance level reached by each species is discussed in relation to their respective original habitats. Our study additionally provides evidence on the most resistant phytoplankton groups in a future warming scenario. 12395,2011,4,4,Was the East Mediterranean deep thermohaline cell weakening during 2006-2009?,The East Mediterranean deep thermohaline cell is a series of processes that refer to the water sinking during winter at specific locations and the subsequent spreading that fills the deep near-bottom layers of the East Mediterranean with oxygen-rich water masses. These waters tend to preserve the hydrologic characteristics (temperature| salinity| and transparency) of their formation region. Hydrographic sections offshore from Cape Passero (west Ionian Sea) and near the southwest tip of Peloponnisos (east Ionian Sea)| in the framework of the deep-neutrino-telescope-related KM3net program| cut through a bottom plume of Adriatic water at similar to 3500 m in the southwest Ionian and a deep vein at similar to 3200 m of Cretan water in the southeast Ionian. In the period 2006-2009| the Adriatic plume| originally characterized by a strong signal of locally higher salinity and oxygen and lower transparency in the near-bottom 500 m| tends to weaken and shrink within the near-bottom similar to 200 m in 2009. This weakening trend may be associated with the relatively warm/mild winters following 2006. It may be typical inter-annual variability or a signature of global warming in which case an expected prolonged continuation can potentially affect the deep oxygen supply. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12295,2011,2,3,Water availability alters the tri-trophic consequences of a plant-fungal symbiosis,Plant-microbe protection symbioses occur when a symbiont defends its host against enemies (e.g.| insect herbivores); these interactions can have important influences on arthropod abundance and composition. Understanding factors that generate context-dependency in protection symbioses will improve predictions on when and where symbionts are most likely to affect the ecology and evolution of host species and their associated communities. Of particular relevance are changes in abiotic contexts that are projected to accompany global warming. For example| increased drought stress can enhance the benefits of fungal symbiosis in plants| which may have multi-trophic consequences for plant-associated arthropods. Here| we tracked colonization of fungal endophyte-symbiotic and aposymbiotic Poa autumnalis (autumn bluegrass) by Rhopalosiphum padi (bird-cherry-oat aphids) and their parasitoids (Aphelinus sp.) following manipulations of soil water levels. Endophyte symbiosis significantly reduced plant colonization by aphids. Under low water| symbiotic plants also supported a significantly higher proportion of aphids that were parasitized by Aphelinus and had higher above-ground biomass than aposymbiotic plants| but these endophyte-mediated effects disappeared under high water. Thus| the multi-trophic consequences of plant-endophyte symbiosis were contingent on the abiotic context| suggesting the potential for complex responses in the arthropod community under future climate shifts. 12394,2011,2,3,Water availability in +2 degrees C and +4 degrees C worlds,While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2 degrees C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided| current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5 degrees C. Here| we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2 degrees C) and possible reality (+4 degrees C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by ensembles of climate models with global temperature increases of 2 degrees C and 4 degrees C. We combine these with UN-based population growth scenarios to explore the relative importance of population change and climate change for water availability. We find that the projected changes in global surface run-off from the ensemble show an increase in spatial coherence and magnitude for a +4 degrees C world compared with a +2 degrees C one. In a +2 degrees C world| population growth in most large river basins tends to override climate change as a driver of water stress| while in a +4 degrees C world| climate change becomes more dominant| even compensating for population effects where climate change increases runoff. However| in some basins where climate change has positive effects| the seasonality of surface run-off becomes increasingly amplified in a +4 degrees C climate. 12008,2011,2,4,Water relations of climbing ivy in a temperate forest,Ivy (Hedera helix) is the most important liana in temperate European forests. We studied water relations of adult ivy in a natural| 35 m tall mixed deciduous forest in Switzerland using a construction crane to access the canopy. Predawn leaf water potential at the top of climbing ivy ranged from -0.4 to -0.6 MPa| daily minima ranged from -1.3 to -1.7 MPa. Leaf water potentials as well as relative sap flow were held surprisingly constant throughout different weather conditions| suggesting a tendency to isohydric behaviour. Maximum stomatal conductance was 200 mmol m(-2) s(-1). The use of a potometer experiment allowed us to measure absolute transpiration rates integrated over a whole plant of 0.23 mmol m(-2) s(-1). Nightly sap flow of ivy during warm| dry nights accounted for up to 20% of the seasonal maximum. Maximum sap flow rates were reached at ca. 0.5 kPa vpd. On the other hand| the host trees showed a less conservative stomatal regulation| maximum sap flow rates were reached at vpd values of ca. 1 kPa. Sap flow rates of ivy decreased by ca. 20% in spring after bud break of trees| suggesting that ivy profits strongly from warm sunny days in early spring before budbreak of the host trees and from mild winter days. This species may benefit from rising winter temperatures in Europe and thus become a stronger competitor against its host trees. 3382,2011,2,3,Water Use at Pulverized Coal Power Plants with Postcombustion Carbon Capture and Storage,Coal-fired power plants account for nearly 50% of U.S. electricity supply and about a third of U.S. emissions of CO(2)| the major greenhouse gas (GHG) associated with global climate change. Thermal power plants also account for 39% of all freshwater withdrawals in the U.S. To reduce GHG emissions from coal-fired plants| postcombustion carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems are receiving considerable attention. Current commercial amine-based capture systems require water for cooling and other operations that add to power plant water requirements. This paper characterizes and quantifies water use at coal-burning power plants with and without CCS and investigates key parameters that influence water consumption. Analytical models are presented to quantify water use for major unit operations. Case study results show that| for power plants with conventional wet cooling towers| approximately 80% of total plant water withdrawals and 86% of plant water consumption is for cooling. The addition of an amine-based CCS system would approximately double the consumptive water use of the plant. Replacing wet towers with air-cooled condensers for dry cooling would reduce plant water use by about 80% (without CCS) to about 40% (with CCS). However| the cooling system capital cost would approximately triple| although costs are highly dependent on site-specific characteristics. The potential for water use reductions with CCS is explored via sensitivity analyses of plant efficiency and other key design parameters that affect water resource management for the electric power industry. 11720,2011,3,4,Well-to-Wheels analysis of hydrogen production from bio-oil reforming for use in internal combustion engines,The environmental profile of hydrogen depends greatly on the nature of the feedstock and the production process. In this Well-to-Wheels (WTW) study| the environmental impacts of hydrogen production from lignocellulosic biomass via pyrolysis and subsequent steam reforming of bio-oil were evaluated and compared to the conventional production of hydrogen from natural gas steam reforming. Hydrogen was assumed to be used as transportation fuel in an internal combustion engine vehicle. Two scenarios for the provision of lignocellulosic biomass were considered: wood waste and dedicated willow cultivation. The WTW analysis showed that the production of bio-hydrogen consumes less fossil energy in the total lifecycle| mainly due to the renewable nature of the fuel that results in zero energy consumption in the combustion step. The total (fossil and renewable) energy demand is however higher compared to fossil hydrogen| due to the higher process energy demands and methanol used to stabilize bio-oil. Improvements could occur if these are sourced from renewable energy sources. The overall benefit of using a CO(2) neutral renewable feedstock for the production of hydrogen is unquestionable. In terms of global warming| production of hydrogen from biomass through pyrolysis and reforming results in major GHG emissions| ranging from 40% to 50%| depending on the biomass source. The use of cultivated biomass aggravates the GHG emissions balance| mainly due to the N(2)O emissions at the cultivation step. Copyright (C) 2011| Hydrogen Energy Publications| LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12314,2011,4,4,Westerly wind bursts and their relationship with ENSO in CMIP3 models,Equatorial westerly wind bursts (WWBs) and their relationship with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the 18 climate models presented in the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) are examined. Some models depict a realistic eastward shift of collective occurrences of WWBs over the Pacific as the warm pool expands eastward. These models that depict the frequent western Pacific WWBs preceding El Nino peak| known to trigger or enhance El Nino| tend to reproduce westerly background states and ENSO more accurately. Thus the reproducibility of the westerly background states is suggested to be fundamental for WWB occurrences as well as the following El Nino. Although WWBs generate with active convection in most of the models as observations| various kinds of intraseasonal disturbances that cause the active convection are found. It is suggested that organized convection is essential for the WWB generation but is prepared by each model's own dominant mode in the tropics. Under global warming| WWBs tend to increase over the eastern Pacific and decrease over the Indian Ocean whereas the total number of WWBs does not change consistently. This might arise from an increase of short-period convective disturbances over the eastern Pacific due to a sea surface temperature increase. Although there is a weak relationship between changes in the ENSO amplitude and the eastern Pacific WWBs in general| good models reproducing the WWB-ENSO relationship in the current climate tend to show consistent changes| suggesting the possibility of the eastern Pacific WWBs to intensify ENSO. 12757,2011,2,3,What Caused the Observed Twentieth-Century Weakening of the Walker Circulation?,The Walker circulation (WC) is one of the world's most prominent and important atmospheric systems. The WC weakened during the twentieth century| reaching record low levels in recent decades. This weakening is thought to be partly due to global warming and partly due to internally generated natural variability. There is| however| no consensus in the literature on the relative contribution of external forcing and natural variability to the observed weakening of the WC. This paper examines changes in the strength of the WC using an index called BoxAP| which is equal to the difference in mean sea level pressure across the equatorial Pacific. Change in both the observations and in World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) climate models are examined. The annual average BoxAP declines in the observations and in 15 out of 23 models during the twentieth century (results that are significant at or above the 95% level)| consistent with earlier work. However| the magnitude of the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM) 1901-99 trend (-0.10 Pa yr(-1)) is much smaller than the magnitude of the observed trend (-0.52 Pa yr(-1)). While a wide range of trends is evident in the models with approximately 90% of the model trends in the range (-0.25 to +0.1 Pa yr(-1))| even this range is too narrow to encompass the magnitude of the observed trend. Twenty-tirst-century changes in BoxAP under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2 are also examined. Negative trends (i.e.| weaker WCs) are evident in all seasons. However| the MMEM trends for the A1B and A2 scenarios are smaller in magnitude than the magnitude of the observed trend. Given that external forcing linked to greenhouse gases is much larger in the twenty-first-century scenarios than twentieth-century forcing| this| together with the twentieth-century results mentioned above| would seem to suggest that external forcing has not been the primary driver of the observed weakening of the WC. However| 9 of the 23 models are unable to account for the observed change unless the internally generated component of the trend is very large. But indicators of observed variability linked to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation have modest trends| suggesting that internally variability has been modest. Furthermore| many of the nine "inconsistent" models tend to have poorer simulations of climatic features linked to ENSO. In addition| the externally forced component of the trend tends to be larger in magnitude and more closely matches the observed trend in the models that are better able to reproduce ENSO-relatecl variability. The "best" four models| for example| have a MMEM of -0.2 Pa yr(-1) (i.e.| approximately 40% of the observed change)| suggesting a greater role for external forcing in driving the observed trend. These and other considerations outlined below lead the authors to conclude that (i) both external forcing and internally generated variability contributed to the observed weakening of the WC over the twentieth century and (ii) external forcing accounts for approximately 30%-70% of the observed weakening with internally generated climate variability making up the rest. 11733,2011,3,4,What Is the Most Environmentally Beneficial Way to Treat Commercial Food Waste?,Commercial food waste represents a relatively available high-quality feedstock for landfill diversion to biological treatment. A life-cycle assessment was performed for commercial food waste processed through aerobic composting systems of varying complexity| anaerobic digestion| and landfills with and without gas collection and energy recovery| as well as a bioreactor landfill. The functional unit was 1000 kg of food waste plus 550 kg of branches that are used as a bulking agent. For each alternative| global warming potential| NO(x) and SO(2) emissions| and total net energy use were determined. Anaerobic digestion was the most environmentally beneficial treatment option| leading to -395 kg net CO(2)e per functional unit. This result was driven by avoided electricity generation and soil carbon storage from use of the resulting soil amendment. The composting alternatives led to between -148 and -64 kg net CO(2)e| whereas the landfill alternatives led to the emission of -240 to 1100 kg CO(2)e. A traditional landfill with energy recovery was predicted to have lower emissions than any of the composting alternatives when a fertilizer offset was used. There is variation in the results based on uncertainty in the inputs| and the relative rankings of the alternatives are dependent on the soil amendment offset that is used. The use of compost to offset peat has greater emission offsets than the value of compost as a fertilizer. 3260,2011,3,3,What role for microgeneration in a shift to a low carbon domestic energy sector in the UK?,Domestic energy use accounts for more than a quarter of CO(2) emissions in the UK. Traditional approaches to energy reduction look at direct emissions savings| and recommend insulation and efficiency as more cost-effective than microgeneration. However| microgeneration has indirect| 'soft' benefits and could play a significant role in emissions reduction. Current uptake of microgeneration in the UK is low| with various barriers-economic| technical| cultural| behavioural and institutional-both to uptake and to maximising energy and emissions savings once installed. Subsidies and spreading information alone do not guarantee maximising uptake| and even if successful| this is not enough to maximise savings. The industry focuses on maximising sales| with no incentives to ensure best installations and use; householders do not have access to the best information| and user behaviour does not maximise energy and emission savings. This is related to a broader state of socio-technical 'lock-in' in domestic energy use; there's a lack of connection between personal behaviour and energy consumption| let alone global climate change. This suggests that a major cultural-behavioural shift is needed to reduce energy/emissions in the home. Transition theory and strategic niche management provide insights into possible systemic change and a suitable framework for future policies| such as supporting a variety of radically innovative niches| both technological and social. Microgeneration| properly employed| has the potential to play a part in such a transition by increasing awareness and energy literacy and empowering people to seriously engage in energy debates as producers| as well as consumers| of energy. This deeper understanding and heightened responsibility are crucial in a shift toward bottom-up emission-reducing behaviour change and better acceptance of top-down energy-saving policy measures| as part of a new domestic energy paradigm. The implications for policy are that| as well as supporting the technologies| it needs to support existing niches and to develop new niche experiments. Policy needs to consider how to promote empowerment and responsibility and support or even develop new energy sector models; this will involve a range of stakeholders and multiple governance levels| not just national incentive schemes. 11605,2011,2,3,What would happen to barley production in Finland if global warming exceeded 4 degrees C? A model-based assessment,In research to date| projected climate change has been considered to be beneficial for agriculture under Nordic conditions| where crop production is mainly limited by low temperatures resulting in short growing seasons. However| with the rapid increases in global mean temperature implied at the high end of the uncertainty range of current projections| which are typically amplified at high latitudes| conditions for crop production could change so dramatically that yields would be reduced| even accounting for the positive effects of CO(2) fertilization. In this study| we used the WOFOST crop growth simulation model to examine crop yield responses to a set of plausible scenarios of climate change for Finland up to 2100| including some that exceed 4 degrees C global mean temperature increase relative to pre-industrial. We selected spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L) as an indicator crop and calculated water-limited yields for two Finnish locations| Jokioinen and Jyvaskyla and fora clay and a sandy soil. Scenarios included systematic increases in temperatures| changes in precipitation distribution and altered daily climatic variability using the M&Rfi weather generator. We also examined the effectiveness of a few adaptation options| such as shifts in sowing dates and hypothetical new crop cultivars. Increasing temperature reduced total growth duration and yield considerably| even with adjusted earlier sowing. A reduced number of rainy days had marked negative effects only in combination with increases in temperature of 4 degrees C or greater| leading to distinctly higher yield losses on the sandy soil than on the clay. Prolonged dry spells clearly increased yield variability. For scenarios with temperature increases of +6 degrees C and +7 degrees C| yield losses at Jokioinen were highest; losses at Jyyaskyla were generally less pronounced. Neither CO(2) fertilization nor adjusted sowing could compensate the yield losses from temperature changes exceeding +4 degrees C. On clay soils| yield loss could be compensated by new cultivars. For sandy soils even with new cultivars| there would be yield loss at temperature increases exceeding +3 degrees C. It can be concluded that the positive effects of climate warming and elevated CO(2) concentrations on cereal production at high latitudes are likely to be reversed at temperature increases exceeding 4 degrees C| with a high risk of marked yield loss. Only plant breeding efforts aimed at increasing yield potential jointly with drought resistance and adjusted agronomic practices| such as sowing| and adequate nitrogen fertilizer management and plant protection| holds a prospect of partly restoring yield levels and reducing the risks of yield shortfall. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 12153,2011,3,3,When do increasing carbon taxes accelerate global warming? A note on the green paradox,The "green paradox" by Hans-Werner Sinn suggests that increasing resource taxes accelerate global warming because resource owners increase near-term extraction in fear of higher future taxation. In this note we show that this effect does only occur for the specific set of carbon taxes that increase at a rate higher than the effective discount rate of the resource owners. We calculate a critical initial value for the carbon tax that leads to a decreased cumulative consumption over the entire (infinite) time horizon. Applying our formal findings to carbon taxes for several mitigation targets| we conclude that there is a low risk of a green paradox in case the regulator implements and commits to a permanently mal-adjusted tax. This remaining risk can be avoided by emissions trading scheme as suggested by Sinn as long as the emission caps are set appropriately and the intertemporal permit market works correctly. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 12036,2011,5,4,When the pond turtle followed the reindeer: effect of the last extreme global warming event on the timing of faunal change in Northern Europe,Faunal communities have been shaped in different ways by past climatic change. The impact of the termination of the last Glacial and the onset of the present (Holocene) Interglacial on large-scale faunal shifts| extinction dynamics and gene pools of species are of special interest in natural sciences. A general pattern of climate-triggered range expansion and local extinction of vertebrate species is known for Europe| and shows that in the modern temperate zone the main faunal change took place mainly during the Late Glacial (14 700-11 700 years ago) and Early Holocene (11 700-9 100 years ago). Based on large datasets of new radiocarbon data| we present precise temporal dynamics of climate-driven disappearance and appearance of reindeer and pond turtle in southern Sweden. These two species are significant climate indicators in Late Quaternary biostratigraphy. Our data reveal that the reindeer disappeared from southern Sweden ca. 10 300 years ago| whereas the pond turtle colonized the area ca. 9 860 years ago| with a 450-year gap between each species. This provides evidence for a sudden environmental turnover| causing the replacement of an arctic faunal element by a thermophilic species. The postglacial range dynamics of pond turtle and reindeer are a unique model case| allowing insights into the faunal turnover of other vertebrates during the last dramatic natural global warming event at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. 3175,2011,2,4,Whole-Community Facilitation Regulates Biodiversity on Patagonian Rocky Shores,Background: Understanding the factors that generate and maintain biodiversity is a central goal in ecology. While positive species interactions (i.e.| facilitation) have historically been underemphasized in ecological research| they are increasingly recognized as playing important roles in the evolution and maintenance of biodiversity. Dominant habitat-forming species (foundation species) buffer environmental conditions and can therefore facilitate myriad associated species. Theory predicts that facilitation will be the dominant community-structuring force under harsh environmental conditions| where organisms depend on shelter for survival and predation is diminished. Wind-swept| arid Patagonian rocky shores are one of the most desiccating intertidal rocky shores ever studied| providing an opportunity to test this theory and elucidate the context-dependency of facilitation. Methodology/Principal Findings: Surveys across 2100 km of southern Argentinean coastline and experimental manipulations both supported theoretical predictions| with 43 out of 46 species in the animal assemblage obligated to living within the matrices of mussels for protection from potentially lethal desiccation stress and predators having no detectable impact on diversity. Conclusions/Significance: These results provide the first experimental support of long-standing theoretical predictions and reveal that in extreme climates| maintenance of whole-community diversity can be maintained by positive interactions that ameliorate physical stress. These findings have important conservation implications and emphasize that preserving foundation species should be a priority in remediating the biodiversity consequences of global climate change. 12830,2011,4,5,Why Is Global Warming Slowing Down?,It is established that the slowing down of global warming| which has been observed during the past decade| is due to the counteraction of natural factors and| primarily| to the reduction in solar activity and transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the regular negative phase. Warming is supposed to resume in the years to come| although at a lower rate than during the past 30 years. 12672,2011,2,4,WILDLIFE CONSERVATION EDUCATION AND INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMES,Wildlife and habitat conservation has become increasingly important in the 21st century. Destruction and loss of habitat| illegal use of wildlife| overexploitation of resources| and lack of conservation awareness| have a negative impact on biodiversity and ecosystems. The unforeseeable expectation by 2050 is that few large marine species will remain and majority of coral reefs| mangrove swamps and saltmarshes will be degraded. The wildlife carrying capacity in many protected areas will significantly reduce due to global warming| pollution| invasive species| and illegal hunting. One of the concerns is the rapidly increasing human population on the planet with 6.4 billion individuals in 2005. For global conservation a sustainable approach means that strict legislation and ethics have to be developed| together with regulating human attitudes. Conservation education and outreach techniques including learning and thinking| developing skills| and undertaking activities are described. The responsibility of Zoos to teaching their visitors by 'effective education' about the causes and types of threats| their decline and measures for conservation is more holistic. I apply as a model the role of the Zoological Society of London and its two Zoos in the development of critical and scientifically valid evaluation techniques and conservation activities| and their impact on species sanctuary in the wild. International educational programmes| are chiefly targeted towards poverty alleviation| and play an important role in delivering sustainable outputs. This review concludes with case studies of UK and Pakistan collaborative programmes involving national experts and local community participation. 3430,2011,2,4,Will climate change reduce the effects of a pesticide on amphibians?: partitioning effects on exposure and susceptibility to contaminants,Several studies suggest that global climate change could increase the toxicity of contaminants| but none of these studies explicitly integrate the effects of climate change on both susceptibility and duration of exposure to pollution. For many amphibian and aquatic insect species| exposure to contaminants is probably greatest during their fully aquatic embryonic and larval stages because these stages cannot readily escape water bodies where many contaminants accumulate and concentrate. Hence| by accelerating embryonic and larval development| global warming might reduce the duration of contaminant exposure for these taxa. To test this hypothesis| we isolated the effects of a temperature gradient (13-25 degrees C) on susceptibility (toxicity at a controlled exposure duration) and exposure of the streamside salamander| Ambystoma barbouri| to the herbicide atrazine (0| 4| 40| and 400 mu g L-1) by quantifying growth| survival| hatching| and metamorphosis under an atrazine exposure duration that was either constant or that depended on time to metamorphosis (and thus temperature). Increasing atrazine concentrations reduced growth| delayed hatching and metamorphosis| and decreased embryonic and larval survival. Increasing temperatures enhanced growth| accelerated development| and reduced survival for embryos but not larvae. With the exception of growth| increasing temperatures generally did not enhance the toxicity of atrazine| but they did generally ameliorate the adverse effects of atrazine by accelerating development and reducing the duration of atrazine exposure. The actual effects of climate change on contaminants remains difficult to predict because temperature changes can affect chemical use| uptake| excretion| biotransformation| fate| transport| and bioavailability. However| this work highlights the importance of explicitly considering how climate change will affect both exposure and toxicity to contaminants to accurately assess risk. 12264,2011,2,3,Will climate change reduce the efficacy of protected areas for amphibian conservation in Italy?,Amphibians are an important and imperiled component of biodiversity. In this study we analyze the efficacy of Italian reserve network for protecting multiple amphibian species in a climate change scenario| considering both nationally designated areas and Natura 2000 sites. Our approach is based on ensemble niche modeling estimate of potential range shift under two carbon emission scenarios (A1FI and B1) and two dispersal assumptions. The predicted distributions were used to perform gap and irreplaceability analyses. Our findings show that the current Italian reserve network incompletely represents current amphibian diversity and its geographic pattern. The combination of the nationally designated protected areas and the Natura 2000 sites improves current representation of amphibians| but conservation targets based on geographic range extent are achieved for only 40% of species. Under the future scenarios| Natura 2000 sites become a crucial component of the protected areas system. Nonetheless| we predict that climate change decreases for many species the amount of suitable range falling into reserves| regardless of our assumptions about dispersal. We identify some currently unprotected areas that have high irreplaceability scores for species conservation and that maintain their importance under all the future scenarios we considered. We recommend designation of new reserves in these areas to help guarantee long-term amphibian conservation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12501,2011,2,4,Will global warming modify the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation?,The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability in the climate system. Observations suggest that warming in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans in recent decades may have contributed to increased trends in the annual number of MJO events. A stochastic model is used to project changes in MJO activity under a global warming scenario. The mean number of events per year may rise from similar to 3.9 (1948-2008) to similar to 5.7 (2049-2099) and the probability of very active years (5 or more events) may significantly increase from 0.51 +/- 0.01 (1990-2008) to 0.75 +/- 0.01 (2010-2027) and 0.92 +/- 0.01 (2094-2099). Copyright (c) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society 12608,2011,2,4,Will higher minimum temperatures increase corn production in Northeast China? An analysis of historical data over 1965-2008,Recent crop model projections have shown that crop production may benefit from warming| especially in the high latitudes| but hard evidence is limited. In this study we conducted correlation and regression analyses of climate records of seventy-two meteorological stations and records of corn yield over the period 1965-2008 in Northeast China. It was found that over these forty-four years. the diurnal mean| minimum and maximum temperatures during corn growing season increased on average by 0.31 degrees C| 0.42 degrees C and 0.23 degrees C every ten years| respectively. No significant change in precipitation was found| although differences between years were large. The daily minimum temperature was the dominant factor to corn production. Corn yield was significantly correlated with the daily minimum temperature in May and September. According to a regression analysis of the anomalies of corn yield and air temperature| a 1.0 degrees C increase in daily minimum temperature in May or September will lead to an increment of 303 kg ha(-1) or 284 kg ha(-1) in corn yield| respectively. Corn varieties with longer growth duration will profit most from the climatic changes but agronomic practices may have to be modified to address expected weather extremes such as droughts and periods with heavy rainfall. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 3336,2011,2,2,Will variation among genetic individuals influence species responses to global climate change?,Increased anthropogenic CO(2) emissions in the last two centuries have lead to rising sea surface temperature and falling ocean pH| and it is predicted that current global trends will worsen over the next few decades. There is limited understanding of how genetic variation among individuals will influence the responses of populations and species to these changes. A microcosm system was set up to study the effects of predicted temperature and CO(2) levels on the bryozoan Celleporella hyalina. In this marine species| colonies grow by the addition of male| female and feeding modular individuals (zooids) and can be physically subdivided to produce a clone of genetically identical colonies. We studied colony growth rate (the addition of zooids)| reproductive investment (the ratio of sexual to feeding zooids) and sex ratio (male to female zooids) in four genetically distinct clonal lines. There was a significant effect of clone on growth rate| reproductive investment and sex ratio| with clones showing contrasting responses to the various temperature and pH combinations. Overall| decreasing pH and increasing temperature caused reduction of growth| and eventual cessation of growth was often observed at the highest temperature| especially during the latter half of the 15-day trials. Reproductive investment increased with increasing temperature and decreasing pH| varying more widely with temperature at the lowest pH. The increased production of males| a general stress response of the bryozoan| was seen upon exposure to reduced pH| but was not expressed at the highest temperature tested| presumably due to the frequent cessation of growth. Further to the significant effect of pH on the measured whole-colony parameters| observation by scanning electron microscopy revealed surface pitting of the calcified exoskeleton in colonies that were exposed to increased acidity. Studying ecologically relevant processes of growth and reproduction| we demonstrate the existence of relevant levels of variation among genetic individuals which may enable future adaptation via non-mutational natural selection to falling pH and rising temperature. 12156,2011,3,2,Wood fuel trade in European Union,Wood fuels are the most important alternatives of fossil fuel which is one of the reasons of the climate changes in the world and of global warming. Wood fuels| which have an important role in the cause of both providing energy requirement of production units and heating for household and healing energy deficit| disperse very less CO(2) than fossil fuels to atmosphere. Bio-fuels are used to provide energy requirement among EU countries like using in lots of developed countries. Resources having by lots developed countries and EU countries are not at enough level for bio-fuels. For this reason| trade of bio-fuels has been become in an important situation in recent years. In this study| import and export levels of bio-fuels of EU countries and Turkey| which is a candidate for union| were investigated between 2003 and 2006. The date is obtained from European Forest Institute (EFI) forest products trade flow database. As a result of the study| while rises were determined in years| it is determined that the most important exporters are Germany| Italy| Latvia and Poland and the most important importers are Germany| Italy| Belgium and UK. It is seen that Turkey has a low trade level in selected product groups. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 12270,2011,3,3,Wood pellets production costs and energy consumption under different framework conditions in Northeast Argentina,The development of cleaner and renewable energy sources are needed in order to reduce dependency and global warming. Wood pellets are a clean renewable fuel and has been considered as one of the substitutes for fossil fuels. In Argentina| large quantities of sawmill residues are still unused and wood pellets production could be seen as both| as an environmental solution and an extra economical benefit. The general aim of this study was to determine the wood pellets production costs and energy consumption under different framework conditions in northeast Argentina. The specific costs of wood pellets for the different scenarios showed relative lower costs comparing to the ones reported in other studies| ranging from 35 to 47 (sic)/Mg(pellets). Raw material costs represented the main cost factor in the calculation of the total pellets production costs. A lower specific production cost was observed when 50% of the raw material input was wood shavings. The specific electricity consumption per metric ton of pellet was lower in scenarios with higher production rate. Lower heat energy consumption was observed in scenarios that have a mixed raw material input. The most promising framework condition for Northeast Argentina| in terms of costs effectiveness and energy consumption could be acquired with production rates of 6 Mg/h with sawdust and wood shavings as raw material. However| simultaneous increment of the electricity by 50% and raw material price by 100% may increase the specific costs up to 50%. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 11768,2011,2,4,Workplace heat stress in the context of rising temperature in India,Heat stress is an important aspect in the lives of people working under exposed conditions for long hours. It is interesting to examine the impact of global warming on the occurrence of heat stress in India. This study uses India Meteorological Department (IMD) daily temperature gridded data to investigate the changes in frequency and episodes of extreme temperature events in seven temperature homogenous regions and the country as a whole by applying the guidelines suggested by the World Meteorological Organization 'Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices'. It is emphasized here that climate change may lead to significant increase of heat events and hence heat stress during the hot seasons in most parts of India. Heat stress may cause occupational health risks as well as reductions of work productivity that can have a negative impact on family income and the community economy. It is time to recognize the importance of heat stress as a public health issue and conduct more scientific studies in different parts of India to formulate guidelines for safety measures. 12521,2011,2,4,Wrens on the edge: feeders predict Carolina wren Thryothorus ludovicianus abundance at the northern edge of their range,The marked range shifts seen with global warming suggest that ranges are limited by temperature. Other findings| however| suggest winter survival is directly tied to food availability. We studied Carolina wrens Thryothorus ludovicianus at the northern edge of their range to understand the roles of temperature and food in limiting this species. We established 21 transects over 3 habitats (residential| city park| and rural) with varying degrees of human influence on temperature and food supply. The three habitat types showed variations in wren density| temperature| and feeder presence. While wren densities showed similar seasonal patterns in all habitats| significantly higher densities of birds were observed in the city park and residential habitats. Post-winter densities of Carolina wrens were predicted by the presence of bird feeders| and not by January mean minimum temperatures. Our findings suggest the winter range limits for endotherms is more directly related to food supply| and only indirectly related to temperature. Therefore supplemental feeding and other changes in food supply may modify the range shifts predicted from temperature changes alone. 12497,2011,2,4,Yield responses of cauliflower (Brassica oleracea L. var. Botrytis) to different water and nitrogen levels in a Mediterranean coastal area,Global warming along with the increasing population and fresh water shortages necessitates a specific fertilization programme under water-scarce conditions. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of different irrigation and nitrogen levels on yield| growth components and water use characteristics of cauliflower (Brassica oleracea L. var. Botrytis cv. Tetris-F(1)) cultivated in a field for three consecutive years from 2005 to 2007 in the Eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey. Four irrigation (Kcp) levels with a drip irrigation system based on adjustment coefficients (0| 0.75| 1.0 and 1.25) of pan evaporation were used. Nitrogen (N) treatments were consisted of four different nitrogen rates (0| 75| 150 and 225 kg N ha(-1)). The following yield and quality parameters were determined: curd weight| curd diameters| number of leaves per crop| above ground biomass (AGB) and curd/AGB ratio. Fertilizer use efficiency (FUE) and leaf mineral contents were also determined to clarify the productivity of N treatments. According to the results; the amount of irrigation water and/or total received water affects the plant water consumption| consequently| crop yield in a field grown cauliflower. The highest yield was obtained in Kcp(1.0) irrigation level which represents full irrigation treatment. The excess water applications had negative effect on yield and AGB of cauliflower. Highest yield was obtained at 225 kg N ha(-1). The water use efficiency and irrigation water use efficiency values increased with decreasing irrigation rate. However| lower Kcp coefficients resulted in lower total yield. The FUE in irrigation treatments showed linear increases from non irrigation to full irrigation plots. However| excessive irrigation caused a decrease in FUE. It can be recommended that the Kcp1.0 crop-pan coefficient with 225 kg ha(-1) nitrogen application can be used to achieve the highest yield for field grown cauliflower in the Eastern Mediterranean coastal region of Turkey.